They will rise up, refusing to accept their status as second-class citizens of ever-expanding urban settlements, and they will destabilize countries like Kenya, undermining efforts to build more stable, prosperous societies.	他们会揭竿而起，拒绝接受他们的不断扩大定居所的二等公民地位，他们将动摇肯尼亚这样的国家，威胁到建设更稳定、更繁荣社会的努力。


Cities are not just Africa’s future; they are its present.	城市不仅是非洲的未来，也是非洲的现在。


Unless collective action is taken now to transform cities like Nairobi into the drivers of economic development and sources of opportunity that they are supposed to be, they will become a tinderbox of perpetual inequality.	除非我们现在采取集体行动让内罗毕等城市变成人们所希望那样的经济发展的推动力和机会的源泉，否则它们将成为点燃不平等性的干柴烈火。


For the sake of the millions of people like my mother – and, more important, for the sake of their children and grandchildren – we must fulfill the promise that attracts the poor to cities in the first place.	为了千百万我母亲这样的人民的命运——以及更重要的，为了他们的子孙后代的命运——我们必须实现一开始吸引穷人来到城市的承诺。


Mitt and the Moochers	米特和游民


WASHINGTON, DC – The Republican Party has some potentially winning themes for America’s presidential and congressional elections in November.	华盛顿—共和党有一些在11月美国总统和国会选举中胜出的杀手锏。


Americans have long been skeptical of government, with a tradition of resistance to perceived government overreach that extends back to their country’s founding years.	美国人长期对政府持怀疑态度，具有抵制政府管得过多的传统——这可以追溯到建国岁月。


This tradition has bequeathed to today’s Americans a related rejection of public subsidies and a cultural aversion to “dependence” on state support.	这一传统体现在现时代就是美国人拒绝公共补贴，并且拥有厌恶“依赖”国家支持的文化。


But Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and other leading members of his party have played these cards completely wrong in this election cycle.	但共和党总统候选人米特·罗姆尼及其他该党领导人在本次选举周期中把这张牌用的十分糟糕。


Romney is apparently taken with the idea that many Americans, the so-called 47%, do not pay federal income tax.	罗姆尼显然认定许多美国人——所谓的47%——不用支付联邦所得税。


He believes that they view themselves as “victims” and have become “dependent” on the government.	他认为他们视自己为“受害者”，并且“依赖”政府。


But this misses two obvious points.	但这显然存在两大错误。


First, most of the 47% pay a great deal of tax on their earnings, property, and goods purchased.	首先，这47%中的大多数缴纳着相当多的收入、物业和商品消费税。


They also work hard to make a living in a country where median household income has declined to a level last seen in the mid-1990’s.	在这个中位家庭收入已降至20世纪90年代中期水平的国家，他们必须拼命工作才能活下去。


Second, the really big subsidies in modern America flow to a part of its financial elite – the privileged few who are in charge of the biggest firms on Wall Street.	其次，在现代美国，真正的大规模补贴都流向了一小撮金融精英——即掌握着华尔街最大公司的少数特权阶层。


Seen in broad historical perspective, this is not such an unusual situation.	放眼历史，这一现象并不反常。


In their recent bestselling economic history, Why Nations Fail, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson cite many past and current cases in which powerful individuals attain control over the state and use this power to enrich themselves.	在最新畅销经济史著作《国家衰落探源》（Why Nations Fail）中，达伦·阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）和詹姆斯·罗宾逊（James Robinson）举了大量过去和现在的例子，在这些例子中，权势个人把持了国家，用手中的权力为自己攫取财富。


In many pre-industrial societies, for example, control over the state was the best way to assure wealth.	比如，在许多前工业化社会中，控制国家是保证财富的最佳手段。


And, in many developing countries endowed with valuable natural resources, fighting to gain control of the government has proved a very attractive strategy.	在许多自然资源禀赋丰富的国家，争夺政府控制权是极具吸引力的战略。


(I have worked with Acemoglu and Robinson on related issues, though I was not involved in writing the book.)	（我和阿西莫格鲁和罗宾逊在相关问题上有过合作，但我并没有参与写作本书。 ）


The traditional mechanism of state capture in much of the world is violence.	在世界许多地方，控制国家的传统方式是暴力。


But that is not true in the United States.	但在美国并非如此。


Nor is it the case that US government officials are typically bribed in an open fashion (though there have been some prominent exceptions).	美国政府官员通常也绝不会公然受贿（尽管也有一些显著例外）。


Instead, special interests compete for influence through campaign contributions and other forms of political donations.	相反，特殊利益集团争相通过赞助竞选和其他方式的政治现金争夺影响力。


They also run large, sophisticated media campaigns aimed at persuading policymakers and the public that what is good for their special interest is good for the country.	他们还纯熟地大肆使用媒体宣传说服决策者和公众，符合他们的特殊利益的东西也是对美国有利的东西。


No one has succeeded in the modern American political game like the biggest banks on Wall Street, which lobbied for deregulation during the three decades prior to the crisis of 2008, and then pushed back effectively against almost all dimensions of financial reform.	在现代美国政治游戏中，最成功的非华尔街大银行莫属，在2008年危机爆发前的三十年里，他们设法游说减轻监管，危机爆发后，他们又有效地扼杀了几乎所有方面的金融改革。


Their success has paid off handsomely.	他们的成功给他们带来了极高的收益。


The top executives at 14 leading financial firms received cash compensation (as salary, bonus, and/or stock options exercised) totaling roughly $2.5 billion in 2000-2008 – with five individuals alone receiving $2 billion.	2000—2008年，14家领先金融企业顶级高管的现金报酬（包括工资、奖金和/或已执行的股票期权）总数约为25亿美元，最多的五人就拿到了20亿美元。


But these masters of the universe did not earn that money without massive government assistance.	但这些宇宙主宰者所赚到的钱与大规模政府援助脱不了干系。


By being perceived as “too big to fail,” their banks benefit from a government backstop or downside guarantee.	这些银行都“太大而不能倒”，从政府的支持和下跌担保中得益。


They can take on more risk – running a more highly leveraged business with less shareholder capital.	它们可以承担更多风险——以更少的股东资本撬动更高负债率的业务。


They get bigger returns when things go well and receive state support when fortune turns against them: heads they win, tails we lose.	当一切顺利时，他们能获得更好的回报，当大势不顺时，他们可以获得政府支持——赢了归他们，输了归我们。


And the losses are colossal.	而损失是巨大的。


According to a recent report on the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, prepared by Better Markets, an advocacy group that pushes for stronger financial reforms, the cost to the US economy of the financial crisis – caused by financial institutions’ reckless risk-taking – amounts to at least $12.8 trillion.	据致力于推动更彻底金融改革的Better Market集团的最新2008年危机后果报告显示，美国经济因金融危机——由金融机构鲁莽的冒险行为引起——而蒙受的损失至少有12. 8万亿美元。


A big part of this cost has come in the form of jobs lost and lives derailed for the bottom 47% of the American income distribution.	这笔损失中很大一部分转化为就业岗位的减少和处于收入分配底层47%的美国人的生活质量下降。


Former Utah Governor and Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman addressed this issue clearly and repeatedly as he sought – unsuccessfully – to win his party’s nomination to challenge President Barack Obama.	前犹他州州长、共和党总统候选人约恩·亨茨曼（Jon Huntsman）在寻求赢得党内提名以挑战总统奥巴马（以失败而告终）的过程中明确地提出了这一问题并一再强调。


Force the banks to break up, he argued, in order to cut off their subsidies.	他指出，应该强迫银行破产从而降低对它们的补贴。


Make these financial institutions small enough and simple enough to fail – then let the market decide which of them should sink or swim.	让这些金融机构变得足够小、足够简单，从而让它们可以倒，然后让市场决定让哪些银行倒闭或繁荣。


That is an argument around which all conservatives should be able to rally.	对于这个观点，所有保守派都应该团结在���周围。


After all, the emergence of global megabanks was not a market outcome; these banks are government-sponsored and subsidized enterprises, propped up by taxpayers.	毕竟，全球巨型银行的产生并不是市场结果； 这些银行是受政府赞助和补贴的单位，它们的繁荣是站在纳税人的肩膀上的。


(This is as true in Europe today as it is in the US.)	（如今的欧洲也是如此，和美国别无二致。 ）


Romney is right to raise the issue of subsidies, but he badly misstates what has happened in the US during the last four years.	罗姆尼提出补贴问题是对的，但他在描述过去四年美国所发生的事情时错得离谱。


The big, nontransparent, and dangerous subsidies are off-budget, contingent liabilities generated by government support for too-big-to-fail financial institutions.  These subsidies do not appear in any annual appropriation, and they are not well measured by the government – which is part of what makes them so appealing to the big banks and so damaging to everyone else.	大规模、不透明且危险的补贴都是预算外的或有负债，它是由政府对太大而不能倒的金融机构的支持而产生的。 这些补贴不会出现在任何年度拨款案中，政府也没有很好地计算其规模——这也是这些补贴对大银行如此具有吸引力、对其他人如此具有破坏力的部分原因。


If only Romney had turned popular disdain for subsidies against the global megabanks, he would now be coasting into the White House.	罗姆尼只要和公众一样对面向全球大银行的补贴表示鄙夷，他的入主白宫大计可能现在就已经板上钉钉了。


Instead, by going after the hard-pressed 47% of America – the very people who have been hurt the most by reckless bank behavior – his prospect of victory in November has been severely damaged.	相反，跟在受着严重压迫的47%的美国人——他们正是银行鲁莽行为的最大受害者——后面亦步亦趋严重损害了他的11月大选获胜前景。


Mitt Romney and America’s Four Deficits	米特·罗姆尼和美国的四重赤字


BERKELEY – The United States is beset by four deficits: a fiscal deficit, a jobs deficit, a deficit in public investment, and an opportunity deficit.	伯克利—美国正在受四重赤字的困扰：财政赤字、就业赤字、公共投资赤字以及机会赤字。


The budget proposals put forward by presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Paul Ryan, could reduce the fiscal deficit, but would exacerbate the other three.	总统候选人米特·罗姆尼及其竞选搭档保罗·莱恩所抛出的预算方案能够减少财政赤字，但将恶化其他三大赤字。


To be sure, Romney and Ryan have failed to provide specifics about how they would reduce the fiscal deficit, relying on “trust me” assertions.	实事求是地说，罗姆尼和莱恩并没有给出如何减少财政赤字的细节，只是在空喊“相信我”的口号。


But the overarching direction of their proposals is clear: more tax cuts, disproportionately benefiting those at the top, coupled with significantly lower non-defense discretionary spending, disproportionately hurting everybody else – and weakening the economy’s growth prospects.	但他们的方案的主要方向是明确的：更多的减税——让顶层人士大捞好处，同时大量削减非防务自由裁量支出——让其他人大受其害并恶化经济增长前景。


Despite 30 months of private-sector job growth, the US still confronts a large jobs deficit. The unemployment rate remains more than two percentage points above the “normal” rate (when the economy is operating near capacity).	美国经历了30个月的私人部门就业增长，但仍面临巨大的就业赤字失业率仍比“正常”水平（即经济以接近潜力的水平运���时）高出两个百分点。


Moreover, the labor-force participation rate remains near historic lows.	此外，劳动参与率仍然徘徊在历史最低点。


More than 11 million additional jobs are needed to return the US to its pre-recession employment level.	美国需要增加1100万个就业岗位才能回到危机前就业水平。


At the current pace of recovery, that is more than eight years away.	以当前复苏速度计算，这意味着八年时间。


In the meantime, persistent high unemployment reduces the economy’s growth potential by robbing today’s workers of skills and experience.	与此同时，持续高失业让技能较高、经验丰富的工人流失，从而损害了经济的增长潜力。


When weak aggregate demand causes the economy to operate far below its potential, cuts in government spending enlarge the jobs deficit.	当疲软的总需求导致经济以远低于潜力的水平运转时，削减政府支出将扩大就业赤字。


Indeed, in his recent speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that such cuts significantly inhibit job creation.	事实上，在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔的最新讲话中，美联储主席伯南克警告说，削减政府支出将极大地妨碍就业创造。


Without revealing which programs he would reduce, Romney promises to slash federal spending by more than $500 billion in 2016, capping it at 20% of GDP thereafter.	罗姆尼并没有披露那些方面的支出将被削减，但承诺在2016年将联邦支出削减5000亿美元以上，并在此以后将其限制在GDP的20%以下。


He also promises an immediate 5% cut in non-defense discretionary spending in 2013, on top of the huge cuts already scheduled to take effect.	除了已经准备开始实施的巨额支出削减项目，他还承诺在2013年就削减5%的非防务自由裁量支出。


And he has ruled out additional temporary fiscal measures aimed at job creation, like President Barack Obama’s proposals for additional grants to states and additional infrastructure spending.	他还承诺不会出台更多的旨在创造就业机会的暂时性财政措施，比如奥巴马总统增加州补助金和基础设施支出的方案。


Romney acknowledges that large spending cuts, along with the scheduled expiration of tax cuts at the end of this year, could throw the economy back into recession in 2013.	罗姆尼承认，大规模支出削减以及减税计划在今年年底到期将让美国经济在2013年重新进入衰退。


But he vows to steer the economy from the fiscal cliff by extending the tax cuts enacted under George W. Bush, doubling down with a further 20% across-the-board cut in income-tax rates and cutting the corporate rate from 35% to 25%.	但他承诺将延长小布什的减税计划，同时追加削减20%的全面所得税率并把公司税率从35%降至25%，以此帮助经济摆脱财政悬崖。


With the possible exception of the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, these changes would take considerable time to implement.	除了延长布什时代减税计划或许是个例外，罗姆尼的这些措施的实施都要花上好几年才能实现。


Even when enacted, their near-term effects on job creation would be minimal.	即使这些政策获得了落实，其短期就业创造效应也将十分有限。


An across-the-board reduction in tax rates performs poorly in terms of budgetary effectiveness (the number of jobs created per dollar of foregone revenue).	全面削减税率在提高预算效率（所放弃的每一美元收入创造的就业数量）方面效果甚微。


Payroll-tax relief and spending on programs like food stamps and unemployment compensation are much more effective.	工资税减免以及食品券和失业救济等方面的支出要有效得多。


Romney overstates his tax proposals’ long-term growth effects as well.	罗姆尼对其税收计划的长期增长效应也有所高估。


Reducing individual tax rates and taxes on savings and investment at best fosters modest increases in employment, work effort, and income.	降低个人税率和储蓄和投资方面的税负充其量只能使就业、工作投入度和收入略有增长。


Despite the Bush-era tax cuts, the 2001-2007 expansion was the worst of the post-war period in terms of investment, employment, wage, and GDP growth.	尽管布什时期实行了减税计划，但从投资、就业、工资和GDP增长看，2001—2007年的经济扩张仍是战后以来最低的。


Job creation and growth were much stronger following President Bill Clinton’s tax increases in the 1990’s.	就业创造和经济增长在克林顿总统20世纪90年代的增税政策实施后要比布什时期强劲得多。


Moreover, if all of Romney’s additional tax cuts were financed in a revenue-neutral way, as he promises, only the composition of taxes would change; the overall tax share of GDP would not.	此外，如果罗姆尼的追加减税计划如他承诺那样以收入中性的方式融资，那么发生变化的将只是税收的结构，而税收占GDP总比重不会改变。


There is no evidence that this would significantly boost growth, as Romney claims.	没有证据表明这会如罗姆尼所称那样极大地提振增长。


Based on what Romney has told us, we can conclude that his plan would exacerbate the public-investment deficit as well.	根据罗姆尼告诉我们的内容，我们可以推论他的计划还将扩大公共投资赤字。


Romney’s vow to cap federal spending at 20% of GDP by 2016, while maintaining defense spending at 4% of GDP and leaving both Social Security and Medicare unchanged for those 55 or older, implies exempting more than 50% of government spending from cuts for the next decade.	罗姆尼承诺要在2016年将联邦支出限制在GDP的20%以内，与此同时，防务支出将保持GDP的4%，55岁及以上人群的社保和医保也不会改变，这意味着在未来十年中，50%以上的政府支出将不会动。


So, to hit the 20% cap, spending on everything else would have to be slashed by an average of roughly 40% by 2016 and 57% by 2022.	因此，为了将联邦支出压制20%的限制以下，其他方面的支出将在2016年削减约40%，在2022年削减57%。


Everything else includes government investments in three major areas on which growth and high-wage jobs depend: education, infrastructure, and research. These areas account for less than 8% of federal spending, and their share has been declining steadily.	 “其他方面”包括三大领域的政府投资：教育、基础设施和研究，这三大领域的支出是增长和高收入职位创造的基础，大约占到联邦支出的不到8%，且份额一直在稳步下降。


Under Romney, it would plummet to new lows.	若罗姆尼执政，这三项支出将创造新低。


Everything else also includes spending on programs that help low-income families, like food stamps, student grants, and Medicaid.	 “其他方面”还包括援助低收入家庭的支出计划，比如食品券、助学金和医疗补助。


The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities finds that almost two-thirds of the Ryan budget’s spending cuts would come from such programs.	预算和政策优先事项中心（Center on Budget and Policy Priorities）发现，莱恩预算支出削减的三分之二将来自这些计划。


Romney offers few specifics, but simple arithmetic shows that his plan would require even deeper cuts in these programs than Ryan’s plan would.	罗姆尼并没有给出多少细节，但通过简单的算术就能算出，他的计划的削减要求比莱恩更甚。


Meanwhile, Romney’s plan would actually increase taxes on middle-income families.	与此同时，罗姆尼的计划将实际提高中等收入家庭的税负。


His plan would pay for lower income-tax rates by eliminating tax deductions like those for charitable giving and mortgages, while maintaining tax preferences for saving and investment.	他的计划将取消慈善捐赠和按揭等活动的税基扣减，同时保持对储蓄和投资的税收优惠，从而弥补降低所得税率的损失。


But there are not enough tax breaks for the rich to cover another 20% reduction in their income-tax rate.	但以没有足够的富人税收减免空间来实现进一步减少其20%的所得税率。


That is why the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that Romney’s plan would cut overall taxes for households with incomes above $200,000, but would require an average annual tax increase of at least $2,000 for households with incomes between $100,000 and $200,000.	这就是无党派立场的税收政策中心（Tax Policy Center）发现罗姆尼的计划将减少收入在200000美元以上家庭的总体税率，但会让收入在100000至200000美元的家庭年税负增加至少2000美元的原因。


Romney’s budget plan would also make the federal tax-and-transfer system considerably less progressive, thereby worsening income inequality, which is already at its highest level since the Great Depression.	罗姆尼的预算计划还将破坏联邦税收-转移系统的累进性，从而恶化已经处于大萧条以来最严重水平的收入不平等。


Rising income inequality fuels a growing opportunity deficit for children born into poor and middle-income families, reflected in disparities in educational attainment by family background, and a decline in intergenerational mobility.	收入不平等的恶化会助长贫穷和中等收入家庭孩子的机会赤字，不同家庭背景出身者的教育程度差异以及代际流动性的下降就是明证。


Under Romney, the opportunity deficit would widen, robbing the country of future talent and productivity.	根据罗姆尼的计划，机会赤字将会扩大，腐蚀美国的未来天赋和生产力。


Romney has provided few details about his deficit-reduction plan.	罗姆尼并没有给出其赤字削减计划的细节。


But, based on what he has revealed, we know that it would increase the jobs deficit, the investment deficit, and the opportunity deficit, with negative consequences for future growth and prosperity.	但是，根据他所披露的内容，我们可以知道他的计划将增加就业赤字、投资赤字和就业赤字，给未来增长和繁荣带来不良影响。


Mitt Romney’s Reality Check	罗姆尼的现实障碍


NEW YORK – There is a kind of war underway in the United States nowadays between fact and fantasy.	纽约—如今的美国存在一场事实和幻想之争。


President Barack Obama’s re-election marked a victory, limited but unmistakable, for the cause of fact.	总统奥巴马的连任标志着事实的胜利，尽管有限，但确凿无疑。


Events in the days leading up to America’s presidential election provided a stark illustration of the struggle.	美国总统选战为我们提供了这场斗争的全景。


Among senior aides to Republican challenger Mitt Romney, a belief developed that he was on the cusp of victory.	共和党挑战者罗姆尼的高级幕僚间产生了一种他将脱颖而出的信念。


Their conviction had no basis in poll results.	他们的这种感觉根本没有民调结果基础。


Nevertheless, the feeling grew so strong that aides began to address Romney as “Mr. President.”	尽管如此，这种感觉是如此强烈，以至于他们开始称罗姆尼为“总统先生”。


But wanting that to be true was not enough for them to make it true.	愿望是美好的，但有愿望还不足以把这变成现实。


It would be as close to becoming President as Romney would get, and he apparently wanted to enjoy it while he could, however prematurely.	罗姆尼离总统宝座只有一步之遥，而他也想享受这种感觉，不管它是多么不成熟。


Then, on election night, when the television networks projected Romney’s defeat in Ohio and therefore Barack Obama’s re-election, the Romney campaign, in a further denial of fact, refused to accept the result.	接着，在选举之夜，当各大电视网预测罗姆尼将在俄亥俄州败北、从而奥巴马将连任时，罗姆尼阵营再次否认事实，拒不接受结果。


A very awkward hour passed before he accepted reality and made a gracious concession speech.	在经历了难堪的一小时后，他才接受了现实，摆出一副亲和的样子做了承认失败的演说。


The same disregard for reality has been the hallmark not only of the Republican campaign but of the entire Republican Party in recent times.	类似的否认事实不仅成了共和党阵营的标志，也是近几年来整个共和党的特征。


When the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a report in October showing that the national unemployment rate remained “essentially unchanged at 7.9%,” Republican operatives sought to discredit the highly respected BLS.	当劳工统计局发布的10月报告显示全国失业率维持“7. 9%基本不变”时，共和党开始炮轰信誉卓著的劳工统计局。


When polls showed that Romney was falling behind President Barack Obama, they sought to discredit the polls.	当民调显示罗姆尼落后于总统奥巴马时，他们炮轰民调结果。


When the non-partisan Congressional Research Service reported that a Republican tax plan would do nothing to foster economic growth, Republican Senators muscled the CRS into withdrawing its report.	当无党派的国会研究局（Congressional Research Service，CRS）报告共和党税收计划不能提振经济增长时，共和党参议员们强迫CRS收回报告。


These refusals to accept matters of plain fact reflect a still wider pattern.	这些拒绝接受铁板一块的事实反映的是更深层次的模式。


Increasingly, the Republican Party, once a fairly normal political party, has granted itself a license to live in an alternate reality – a world in which George W. Bush did find the weapons of mass destruction that he had thought were in Iraq; tax cuts eliminate budget deficits; Obama is not only a Muslim but was born in Kenya and thus should be disqualified from the presidency; and global warming is a hoax concocted by a cabal of socialist scientists.	共和党是个再平常不过的政党，却日渐把自己当成通往异次元生活的通行证——在这个次元中，小布什确实发现了他认为存在于伊拉克的大规模杀伤性武器； 减税消灭了预算赤字；


(The Democrats, for their part, have had one foot in the camp of unreality as well.)	奥巴马不但是穆斯林，还出生于肯尼亚，因此根本没有资格参选总统； 而全球变暖是由社会主义科学家炮制出来的骗局。


Of all of the Republicans’ unreal beliefs, their full-throated denial of human-induced climate change was surely the most consequential.	在共和党人的所有不现实新年中，言之凿凿地否认人类导致的气候变化是后果最严重的一个。


After all, if left unchecked, global warming has the potential to degrade and destroy the climactic conditions that underlay and made possible the rise of human civilization over the last ten millennia.	毕竟，如果不加注意，气候变暖可能使过去1万年孕育了人类文明的气候条件退化甚至完全毁掉。


Romney, as governor of Massachusetts, had expressed belief in the reality of global warming.	作为马萨诸塞州州长，罗姆尼倒是表现出了对全球变暖现实的信念。


As a presidential candidate, however, he joined the deniers – a switch made clear when he accepted the party’s nomination in Tampa, Florida, in August.	但是，作为总统候选人，他加入了否认阵营——这是他8月份在佛罗里达州坦帕接受党内提名后做出的改变。


“President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans,” Romney told the Republican convention, and then paused, with the expectant smile of a comedian waiting for the audience to catch on to the joke.	“奥巴马总统承诺采取措施延��海平面的上升，”罗姆尼在共和党大会上说，接着他略作停顿，皮笑肉不笑地等待观众听了笑话后的反应。


It did.	他成功了。


Laughter broke and built.	听众装出一阵爆笑。


Romney let it grow, then delivered the punch line:  “And to heal the planet.”	在笑声中，罗姆尼说出了笑点：“并治愈地球。


The crowd cracked up.	”听众哄堂大笑。


It was perhaps the most memorable and lamentable moment in a lamentable campaign – a moment that, in the history now to be written of humanity’s effort to preserve a livable planet, is destined for immortal notoriety.	这也许是一次可悲的竞选活动中最能被人铭记也是最可悲的时刻——在这个人类必须采取措施保证这个宜居星球的历史阶段，这个时刻必将遗臭万年。


There was an astonishing sequel.	但这个场景还有令人震惊的续集。


Eight weeks later, Hurricane Sandy struck the New Jersey shore and New York City.	八周后，飓风桑迪袭击了新泽西州海岸和纽约市。


Its 14-foot surge of seawater was backed by the sea-level rise already caused by a century of global warming, and the storm’s sweep and intensity was fueled by a warming planet’s warmer ocean waters.	14英尺的潮涌乘着一个世纪以来全球变暖所造成的海平面上升以及变暖的地球的变暖的海水的东风，留下一地狼藉。


That tide of reality – what Alexander Solzhenitsyn once called “the pitiless crowbar of events”— burst the closed bubble of Romney’s campaign, its walls breached as decisively as those of lower Manhattan and Far Rockaway.	这次现实之潮——索尔仁尼琴曾经称之为“无情的事实撬棍”——戳破了罗姆尼阵营封闭的泡沫，其护墙就像下曼哈顿和法洛克卫（Far Rockaway）一样被彻底冲垮。


In the contest between fact and fantasy, fact suddenly had a powerful ally.	在事实与幻想之争中，事实来了一次突然袭击。


The political map was subtly but consequentially redrawn.	政治版图被微妙但决定性地改写了。


Obama swung into action, now not just a suspect candidate but a trusted president whose services were sorely needed by the battered population of the East Coast.	奥巴马变被动为主动，不再只是一味可堪怀疑的候选人，而是一位值得信任的总统，东部受灾人民眼睁睁地盼着他来救自己。


Eight of ten voters, as polls showed, viewed his performance favorably, and many declared that the impression influenced their vote.	民调显示，八成选民满意奥巴马的表现，很多人更是直言这一印象决定他们的选票。


In a surprising, politically potent twist, New Jersey’s governor, Chris Christie, who had been the keynote speaker at the Republican convention at which Romney had mocked the dangers of global warming, turned out to be one of those impressed with Obama’s performance, and said so publicly.	新泽西州州长克里斯·克里斯蒂（Chris Christie）做出了出人意料而决定性的政治转向。 他曾是罗姆尼大肆嘲笑全球变暖威胁的民主党大会的主讲发言言，但现在，他也开始欣赏奥巴马的表现，并公开承认这一点。


The American political world – not only Republicans, but also Democrats (albeit to a lesser extent) – had fenced out huge, ominous realities.	美国政治界——不仅是共和党，也包括民主党（尽管程度稍浅）——总是对不吉利的现实视而不见。


But those realities, as if listening and responding, entered the fray.	但这些现实就好像看到了这一迹象一般加入了争论。


They voted early, and they may very well have swayed the outcome.	它们早早地表达了立场，并极有可能左右最后结果。


Earth spoke, and Americans, for once, listened.	地球在发言，而美国人民在聆听。


Mitt Romney’s Fair Share	米特·罗姆尼的公平税负


NEW YORK – Mitt Romney’s income taxes have become a major issue in the American presidential campaign.	纽约—米特·罗姆尼的所得税已成为美国总统竞选的一大话题。


Is this just petty politics, or does it really matter?	这究竟只是一出拙劣的政治把戏，还是真真正正的大问题？


In fact, it does matter – and not just for Americans.	事实上，这却是是大问题，而且不仅对美国人是如此。


A major theme of the underlying political debate in the United States is the role of the state and the need for collective action.	美国悬而未决的政治争论的一大主要议题是国家的角色和集体行动的必要。


The private sector, while central in a modern economy, cannot ensure its success alone.	私人部门是现代经济的核心，但单靠它并不能确保成功。


For example, the financial crisis that began in 2008 demonstrated the need for adequate regulation.	比如，2008年开始的金融危机就说明了充分监管的必要性。


Moreover, beyond effective regulation (including ensuring a level playing field for competition), modern economies are founded on technological innovation, which in turn presupposes basic research funded by government.	此外，除了有效监管（包括确保为竞争提供平等舞台），现代经济的基础是技术创新，后者反过来要求政府资助的基础研究。


This is an example of a public good – things from which we all benefit, but that would be undersupplied (or not supplied at all) were we to rely on the private sector.	这是一个我们都能从中获益的公共品的例子，但如果我们只依靠私人部门，那么这一公共品将是供给不足的（或者根本不存在供给）。


Conservative politicians in the US underestimate the importance of publicly provided education, technology, and infrastructure.	美国的保守派政客低估了公共供给的教育、技术和基础设施的重要性。


Economies in which government provides these public goods perform far better than those in which it does not.	政府提供这些公共品的经济体表现远胜于政府未提供这些公共品的经济体。


But public goods must be paid for, and it is imperative that everyone pays their fair share.	但公共品必须得花钱购买，且每个人都必须付出公平的分量。


While there may be disagreement about what that entails, those at the top of the income distribution who pay 15% of their reported income (money accruing in tax shelters in the Cayman Islands and other tax havens may not be reported to US authorities) clearly are not paying their fair share.	分担的细节可能还存在诸多分歧，但显然，那些身居收入分配顶层、只付出报告收入15%（产生于开曼群岛等避税天堂的收入很可能不会报告给美国当局）的那群人并没有付出公平分量。


There is an old adage that a fish rots from the head.	有道是“鱼从头烂”。


If presidents and those around them do not pay their fair share of taxes, how can we expect that anyone else will?	如果总统及其周边人士都没有付出税收的公平分量，我们如何要求其他人这样做？


And if no one does, how can we expect to finance the public goods that we need?	而如果没人这样做，我们如何指望能为所需公共品提供资金？


Democracies rely on a spirit of trust and cooperation in paying taxes.	民主建立在信任精神和纳税合作的基础上。


If every individual devoted as much energy and resources as the rich do to avoiding their fair share of taxes, the tax system either would collapse, or would have to be replaced by a far more intrusive and coercive scheme.	如果每个个人都像富人那样花大量的能量和资源用於避免公平税负，那么税收系统要么将崩溃，要么被更具侵略性和强制性的机制取代。


Both alternatives are unacceptable.	而这两个结果都是不可接受的。


More broadly, a market economy could not work if every contract had to be enforced through legal action.	从更广的角度讲，市场经济只有在所有契约都必须通过合法手段来执行的情况下才能运转。


But trust and cooperation can survive only if there is a belief that the system is fair.	但信任和合作只有在人们相信制度是公平的情况下才能存在。


Recent research has shown that a belief that the economic system is unfair undermines both cooperation and effort.	最新的研究表明，认为经济制度不公平的观点会同时影响合作和努力。


Yet, increasingly, Americans are coming to believe that their economic system is unfair; and the tax system is emblematic of that sense of injustice.	而美国人正在逐渐认为他们的经济制度不公平； 税收制度便是这种不公感的标志物。


The billionaire investor Warren Buffett argues that he should pay only the taxes that he must, but that there is something fundamentally wrong with a system that taxes his income at a lower rate than his secretary is required to pay.	亿万富翁投资家巴菲特指出，他只应该纳必须纳的税，但如果他的收入所纳的税率比他秘书还低，那么这个制度肯定存在根本性问题。


He is right.	巴菲特是对的。


Romney might be forgiven were he to take a similar position.	罗姆尼如果采取与巴菲特一样的立场，那他或许还值得原谅。


Indeed, it might be a Nixon-in-China moment: a wealthy politician at the pinnacle of power advocating higher taxes for the rich could change the course of history.	事实上，这或许是可以和尼克松访华相比的时刻：位于权力之巅富有政客呼吁提高富人税收将改变历史进程。


But Romney has not chosen to do so.	���罗姆尼并没有选择这样做。


He evidently does not recognize that a system that taxes speculation at a lower rate than hard work distorts the economy.	显然他并未意识到对投机活动课税比努力工作更轻的制度是扭曲经济的。


Indeed, much of the money that accrues to those at the top is what economists call rents, which arise not from increasing the size of the economic pie, but from grabbing a larger slice of the existing pie.	事实上，收入顶层人士所赚的钱很大一部分在经济学上称为“租”，它们不是通过做大经济蛋糕得到的，而是通过掠夺已有蛋糕的更大份额得到的。


Those at the top include a disproportionate number of monopolists who increase their income by restricting production and engaging in anti-competitive practices; CEOs who exploit deficiencies in corporate-governance laws to grab a larger share of corporate revenues for themselves (leaving less for workers); and bankers who have engaged in predatory lending and abusive credit-card practices (often targeting poor and middle-class households).	这些顶层人士包括大量通过限制产量和进行反竞争活动提高收入的垄断者、利用公司治理法漏洞攫取公司收入更大份额（从而吞噬工人所应获得的份额）的CEO、进行掠夺性放贷和滥发信用卡（通常以穷人和中产阶级家庭为对象）的银行家。


It is perhaps no accident that rent-seeking and inequality have increased as top tax rates have fallen, regulations have been eviscerated, and enforcement of existing rules has been weakened: the opportunity and returns from rent-seeking have increased.	也许寻租和不平等的泛滥随着顶层税率的下降、而监管的架空和现有规则执行强度减弱而增加一点都不奇怪：寻租的机会和回报在增加。


Today, a deficiency of aggregate demand afflicts almost all advanced countries, leading to high unemployment, lower wages, greater inequality, and – coming full, vicious circle – constrained consumption.	如今，几乎所有发达国家都饱受着总需求不足的折磨，并因此导致了高失业、低工资、不平等性恶化以及消费不足——所有这些形成了一个完整的恶性循环。


There is now a growing recognition of the link between inequality and economic instability and weakness.	越来越多的人认识到了不平等性和经济不稳定和疲软之间的关系。


There is another vicious circle: Economic inequality translates into political inequality, which in turn reinforces the former, including through a tax system that allows people like Romney – who insists that he has been subject to an income-tax rate of “at least 13%” for the last ten years – not to pay their fair share.	还有另一个恶性循环：经济不平等性转化为政治不平等性，而后者又反过来强化前者，反馈渠道就包括允许向罗姆尼这样的人——他坚持认为自己过去十年中经受着“至少13%”所得税税率的折磨——不用缴纳公平税负的税收制度。


The resulting economic inequality – a result of politics as much as market forces – contributes to today’s overall economic weakness.	由此产生的经济不平等性——这既是市场力量的结果，也是政治力量的结果——是如今总体经济疲软的原因之一。


Romney may not be a tax evader; only a thorough investigation by the US Internal Revenue Service could reach that conclusion.	或许罗姆尼并不是逃税者； 只有美国国税局通过彻底调查才能知道他是不是。


But, given that the top US marginal income-tax rate is 35%, he certainly is a tax avoider on a grand scale.	但是，既然美国最高边际所得税率是35%，那么他肯定避免了一大笔税收。


And, of course, the problem is not just Romney; writ large, his level of tax avoidance makes it difficult to finance the public goods without which a modern economy cannot flourish.	当然，问题不仅仅在于罗姆尼； 显而易见的是，他的避税额度之高已经给现代经济繁荣所必须的公共品融资带来了困难。


But, even more important, tax avoidance on Romney’s scale undermines belief in the system’s fundamental fairness, and thus weakens the bonds that hold a society together.	但更重要的是，向罗姆尼这种规模的避税活动破坏了人们对制度基本公平性的信任，从而削弱了将社会凝聚力。


Did Hamas Win?	哈马斯赢了吗？


GAZA CITY – This summer’s 51-day war on Gaza left more than 2,100 Palestinians dead, over 11,000 injured, and vast areas of devastation that will take years to rebuild.	加沙城—今年夏天51天的加沙战争导致2,100多巴勒斯坦人丧生，超过11,000人受伤，大片区域沦为废墟，需要多年时间重建。


After the third Israeli war on Gaza in less than six years, many Palestinians are questioning the purpose of continuing to fight – and hoping for a solution that does not increase their suffering.	距离第三次以色列对加沙开战不到六年后，许多巴勒斯坦人开始质疑继续战斗的目的，希望能出现不必增加他们的痛苦的解决方案。


Can Hamas, with its newly acquired position at the forefront of Palestinian politics, provide such a solution?	新近获得巴勒斯坦政坛前沿地位的哈马斯能提供这样的解决方案吗？


Before the latest war erupted, Hamas was politically isolated.	在最近的战争爆发前，哈马斯在政治上被孤立。


It had lost traditional allies in Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah.	它失去了叙利亚、伊朗和真主党传统盟友。


Most damaging, the ouster of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood government had deprived Hamas of its lifeline of supplies and armaments.	最糟糕的是，前埃及总统穆尔西的穆斯林兄弟会政府被推翻，这切断了哈马斯供给和武装的生命线。


Egypt’s military regime, led by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has been unrelentingly hostile toward Hamas, blaming it for the fighting in Sinai between the army and insurgent groups.	由西西领导的埃及军政府对哈马斯的态度向来是冷酷无情，视其为西奈半岛军方和叛乱集团斗争的罪魁。


Egypt even mounted an operation to destroy the tunnels between Gaza and Sinai, isolating Gaza completely.	埃及甚至采取行动破坏加沙和半岛之间的通道，使加沙完全孤立。


Hamas faced an intensifying crisis.	哈马斯面临恶化的危机。


Unable to pay the salaries of more than 40,000 public employees in Gaza, it was being slowly strangled by the Israeli and Egyptian authorities.	它无力支付加沙40,000多公职人员的薪水，在以色列和埃及当局的扼杀中逐渐窒息。


And the unity government that it established with the Palestinian Authority in June brought no relief.	尽管6月份哈马斯与巴勒斯坦权力机构建立了联合政府，但这并不能让哈马斯喘口气。


With nothing to lose, Hamas decided that another round of fighting with Israel was the only way to shake things up.	哈马斯已输无可输，认为与以色列展开新一轮战斗是唯一的改变局面的办法。


Despite its modest military capabilities, Hamas managed to hold out for 51 days – and, in the process, place itself at the center of Palestinian and regional politics.	尽管其军事实力十分有限，但仍然坚持了51天——并且在此期间让自己称为巴勒斯坦和地区政治的中心。


Israel, by contrast, failed to achieve any of its goals – beginning with restoring its deterrent capacity.	相反，以色列没有实现任何目标——其中最重要的是重塑其威慑力。


Indeed, despite Israel’s best efforts, Hamas continued to launch long-range missiles at major populated areas from Haifa in the north to Ashkelon and Dimona in the south, and it repeatedly crossed Israeli lines using underground tunnels.	事实上，尽管以色列使出了浑身解数，但哈马斯仍在继续向从海法到北部的阿什克伦和南部的迪摩纳在内的人口密集区发射了远程导弹，据说还利用地下通道穿越了以色列边境。


Such achievements shattered the indomitable image of the Israeli army, exposing a weakness that other radical Islamist groups may attempt to exploit.	这些成就打破了以色列军队坚不可摧的形象，暴露出其他激进伊斯兰组织可以利用的弱点。


Against this background, it is perhaps unsurprising that Hamas managed to compel most Israelis living in areas adjacent to Gaza to flee, with many Israelis accusing their government of failing to protect its citizens adequately.	在这样的背景下，哈马斯迫使大部分居住在紧邻加沙地区的以色列人逃亡并不令人奇怪，许多以色列人指责政府不能充分保护公民。


In short, the war in Gaza shook the status quo.	简言之，加沙战争动摇了现状。


It did not, however, bring about any progress toward resolving the outstanding issues underlying the dispute between Israel and Hamas, or change the conditions that spurred the latest conflict in the first place.	但是，它并没有为解决以色列和哈马斯争议背后的基本问题带来任何进展，也没有为从一开始刺激最近的冲突爆发的环境带来任何改变。


Israel did agree to terms much like those that ended its last assault on Gaza in 2012; but that agreement was never implemented.	以色列确实同意了与结束其2012年袭击加沙的条件颇为相似的条件； 但这一协议从未得到实施。


Israel is now expected, for example, to ease its blockade of Gaza and allow the transport of humanitarian and construction supplies.	比如，如今哈马斯希望以色列放松对加沙的包围，允许人道主义和建设供应的运输。


But more complicated issues, such as the release of Palestinian prisoners and the establishment of a Gaza airport and seaport, will be left for next month’s discussions.	但更复杂的问题——如释放巴勒斯坦囚犯和建造加沙机场和港口——将留到下个月讨论。


And there is no guarantee that Israel will accede to Hamas’s demands without disarming Gaza.	谁都不能保证以色列会在加沙不解除武装的情况下同意哈马斯的要求。


The stakes for Hamas could not be higher.	对哈马斯来说，兹事体大。


By breaking Gaza’s political isolation, the ceasefire has fueled hope of relief from economic and financial deprivation.	停火打破了加沙的政治孤立，燃起了摆脱经济和金融孤立的希望。


Given Hamas’s leading role, it will be held accountable not only for the success of Gaza’s reconstruction, but also for any further delays in Palestinian reconciliation.	由于哈马斯居于领导地位，其不仅对加沙重建是否成功负责，也将对巴勒斯坦和解是否会推迟负责。


Hamas also faces pressure from the international community, which, despite supporting the Palestinians’ demand for an end to the Israeli siege and blockade, is adamant that Israel’s security concerns also be addressed.	哈马斯还受到来自国际社会的压力。 国���社会支持巴勒斯坦关于结束以色列包围和封锁的要求，但也坚决认为以色列的安全担忧也必须得到解决。


As United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned, “Any peace effort that does not tackle the root causes of the crisis will do little other than set the stage for the next cycle of violence.”	联合国秘书长潘基文警告说：“任何不解决危机根源的和平努力都将为下一轮暴力创造条件。 ”


In other words, achieving a lasting peace deal will require compromises from both sides – the kind of compromises that Hamas has long resisted.	换句话说，实现持久和平协议需要双方的妥协，而长期以来哈马斯一直抵制这样的妥协。


For its part, the international community must embrace Hamas’s involvement in the pursuit of a peaceful settlement of the Palestine-Israel conflict.	国际社会必须在追求巴以冲突的和平和解时必须把哈马斯纳入进来。


Former Israeli President Shimon Peres once said, “The real challenge is to transform any crisis, however large, into new opportunities for action.”	前以色列总理佩雷斯曾说：“真正的挑战是将所有危机，不管多么大，都转化为新的心动机会。


It is time for all of the relevant actors in the conflict between Israel and Palestine to address this challenge, and to take concrete, productive, and creative action to bring peace to Gaza at last.	”如今，所有以色列和巴基斯坦冲突的相关行动方应该行动起来解决这一挑战，采取实际的、有效果的、建设性的行动为加沙创造最终和平。


Hamas has proved its staying power.	哈马斯已经证明了它的耐力。


After decades of standoffs and stalemate, perhaps it can focus less on its own survival and more on helping to achieve a just and lasting peace.	在经历了几十年的僵局和困境后，也许如今它可以较少地顾忌自身的生存，更多地专注于帮助实现正义持久的和平了。


The Promise of Digital Finance	数字金融的希望


BERKELEY – An economic development revolution lies literally in the palm of a single hand.	伯克利——经济发展革命其实就掌握在一只手上。


As mobile phones and digital technologies rapidly spread around the world, their implications for economic development, and particularly finance, have yet to be fully realized.	随着手机和数字技术迅速传播到世界各地，尚未完全体现其对经济发展、特别是金融的影响。


The sooner that changes, the better for people worldwide.	这一点越快发生变化，全世界民众受益的可能性就越大。


In emerging economies today, two billion people – 45% of all adults – do not have a formal account at a bank, financial institution, or with a mobile-money provider.	在今天的新兴经济体中， 20亿民众——占全部成年人口的45%——尚未在银行、金融机构或移动货币供应商处开立正式账户。


The “unbanked” rate is even higher for women, the poor, and people living in rural areas.	“无银行账户率”在妇女、贫困及农村人口中实际更高。


Moreover, at least 200 million small- and medium-size enterprises lack sufficient credit, or have no access to credit at all.	此外，至少2亿中小型企业缺乏足够的信贷，或根本没有接触信贷资源的渠道。


Entrepreneurship, investment, and economic growth suffer when savings are stored outside the financial system, and credit is scarce and expensive.	储蓄停留在金融系统之外会对创业、投资和经济增长造成损害，导致信贷资源变得昂贵而稀缺。


Fortunately, according to a recent report by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), digital technologies – starting with mobile phones – can rapidly fix this problem and foster faster, more inclusive growth.	幸运的是，根据麦肯锡全球研究所 最近发布的一份报告，从手机开始的数字技术可以迅速解决这个问题，从而促成速度更快、更具包容性的经济增长。


Mobile phones and the Internet can reduce the need for cash and bypass traditional brick-and-mortar channels.	移动电话和互联网可以减少对现金的需求，并绕过传统的实体渠道。


This dramatically reduces financial-service providers’ costs, and makes their services more convenient and accessible for users – especially low-income users in remote locations.	这大大降低了金融服务提供商的成本，从而使他们的服务更为便利且能被更多用户——尤其是偏远地区的低收入用户——接触到。


MGI estimates that if digital finance is widely adopted, it could add $3.7 trillion to emerging countries’ GDP by 2025.	麦肯锡全球研究所预计如果广泛采用数字金融技术，截止2025年或可为新兴国家增加37000亿美元的GDP。


That amounts to a 6% increase above business as usual.	这与常规业务相比实现了6%的增幅。


In low-income countries with very low financial inclusion rates, such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and India, GDP could increase by as much as 12%.	在尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚和印度等金融包容率非常低的低收入国家，GDP甚至可能实现高达12%的增长。


Digital finance can boost GDP in several ways.	数字金融可以通过若干方式促进GDP增长。


Nearly two-thirds of the expected growth would come from increased productivity, because businesses, financial-service providers, and government organizations would be able to operate much more efficiently if they did not have to rely on cash and paper recordkeeping.	预期增长的近2/3或将来自生产率的提高，因为如果企业、金融服务提供商和政府机构不必依赖现金和书面记录来进行日常运作，它们的运营效率将大大提高。


Another one-third would come from increased investment throughout the economy, as personal and business savings were moved into the formal financial system, and then mobilized to provide more credit.	另外1/3或将来自整体经济投资增加，因为个人和企业储蓄被转入正规金融体系，然后被利用起来增加贷款发放。


The remaining gains would come from people working more hours – the time they would have spent traveling to bank branches and waiting in queues.	其余的收益或将来自延长工作时间——以前跑银行和排队等候的时间可以用来处理工作。


As for financial inclusion, digital finance has two positive effects.	在金融包容性领域，数字金融会产生两项积极的影响。


First, it expands access.	首先，它拓展了信贷覆盖范围。


In emerging markets in 2014, only about 55% of adults had a bank or financial-services account, but nearly 80% had a mobile phone.	在2014年的新兴市场，仅有约55%的成年人开立了银行或金融服务账户，却有近80%的成年人拥有移动电话。


That 25-percentage-point gap could be closed by making mobile banking and digital wallets a reality.	这其中25个百分点的差距可以通过数字银行和数字钱包服务来加以弥补。


But a gender gap will also have to be closed: worldwide, about 200 million fewer women than men have mobile phones or Internet access.	同样需要弥补的还有性别差距：在世界范围内，拥有手机或互联网接入的女性比男性少2亿之多。


Second, digital finance reduces costs: MGI estimates that it would cost financial-service providers 80-90% less – about $10 per year, compared to the $100 per year it costs today – to offer customers digital accounts than accounts through traditional bank branches.	其次，数字金融可以降低成本：麦肯锡全球研究所估计与传统银行机构相比，金融服务提供商为客户提供数字账户的成本或将降低80-90%——即数字金融服务每年仅需十美元左右，而如今的传统金融服务成本为每年100美元。


Using purely digital channels thus makes it feasible to meet the needs of low-income customers.	使用纯数字渠道因此可能满足低收入用户的需求。


Financial inclusion becomes profitable for providers even when account balances and transactions are small.	即使账户余额和交易量规模很小，金融包容性也能让服务提供者有利可图。


With digital finance, as many as 1.6 billion unbanked people – more than half of whom are women – could gain access to financial services, shifting about $4.2 trillion in cash and savings currently held in informal vehicles into the formal financial system.	在数字金融协助下，多达16亿无账户民众——其中妇女占比达50%以上——或将接触到金融服务，从而导致当前滞留在非正规渠道的约4. 2万亿现金和储蓄进入正规金融系统。


This would allow for an additional $2.1 trillion to be extended as credit to individuals and small businesses.	如此或将多出2. 1万亿美元资金可用于个人和小企业信贷发放。


Businesses could also save on labor costs, to the tune of 25 billion hours annually, by swapping cash transactions for digital payments.	企业也可以节约每年达250亿小时的劳动成本，具体方式是以数字交易来替代现金支付。


And governments could take in an additional $110 billion every year – to invest in growth-enhancing public goods like education – because digital channels make tax collection cheaper and more reliable.	而政府或可每年增加1，100亿美元的收入——用于投资促进经济增长的教育等公共产品——因为数字渠道可以降低税收成本并提升其可靠度。


New mobile-money services are already demonstrating digital finance’s potential.	新的移动货币服务已经彰显了数字金融的巨大潜能。


In Kenya, M-Pesa – which transforms one’s phone into a mobile wallet – has leveraged powerful network effects to bring about a vast expansion in the share of adults using digital financial services.	在肯尼亚，将手机变身为移动钱包的M-Pesa计划利用其强大的网络效应，大大拓展了成人使用数字金融服务的份额。


That share grew from zero to 40% in just three years, and had risen to 68% by the end of last year.	在短短三年时间里该份额从零上升到40%，并于去年年底达到68%。


Traditional financial-services accounts tend to grow at the pace of national income, but M-Pesa’s adoption rate has been dramatically faster, demonstrating that digital finance can achieve significant market penetration rapidly even in the world’s poorest countries.	传统的金融服务账户往往与国民收入同步增长，但M-Pesa的使用率增长相对而言要快得多，表明即使在世界上最穷的国家，数字金融也能够实现显著的市场渗透。


But such success stories do not happen in a vacuum.	但这样的成功故事并非发生在真空之中。


For starters, everyone needs a mobile phone with an affordable data plan.	首先，每人都必须拥有手机，还要有可以负担的流量计划。


While businesses can help, it is incumbent upon governments and non-governmental organizations to extend mobile networks to low-return areas and remote populations.	尽管企业可以提供帮助，但政府和非政府机构有义务将移动网络推广至低回报和偏远地区民众。


Governments must also ensure that networks between banks and telecommunications companies are interoperable; otherwise, widespread use of mobile phones for financial services and payments would be impossible.	政府还必须确保银行及电信公司网络互通； 否则的话，将不可能广泛使用手机进行付款并获得金融服务。


Governments must establish universally accepted forms of identity as well, so that service providers can control fraud.	政府还必须建立全民普遍认可的身份认证形式，以便服务提供商可以控制欺诈。


In emerging economies, one in five people are unregistered, compared to only one in ten in advanced economies.	在新兴经济体中，有1/5的人口尚未登记注册，而发达经济体上述比例仅为十分之一。


Nearly 20% of unbanked women in emerging countries do not have the documentation necessary to open a bank account.	新兴国家近20%无银行账户女性不具备开立银行账户的必要材料。


Even when people have recognized IDs, they must be amenable to digital authentication.	即使民众拥有公认的身份证明，他们也必须接受数字认证。


Digital IDs that use microchips, fingerprints, or iris scans could prove useful – and are already gaining popularity – in emerging economies.	利用微芯片、指纹或虹膜扫描的数字身份认证或将证明其有效性——其在新兴经济体中的受欢迎程度不断提高。


Finally, governments must implement regulations that strike a balance between protecting investors and consumers, and giving banks, retailers, and financial-technology and telecommunications companies room to compete and innovate.	最后，政府必须实施法规，在保护投资者、消费者和赋予银行、零售企业及金融技术电信企业竞争和创新空间之间实现动态的平衡。


Because regulations often shut out non-bank competitors, governments should consider a tiered approach, whereby businesses without a full banking license can provide basic financial products to customers with smaller accounts.	因为法规往往排斥非银行竞争对手，政府应当采用分层的方法，允许没有拿到完全银行牌照的企业面对小额账户客户提供基本的金融服务。


A good model for this is the United Kingdom’s “regulatory sandbox” for financial-technology companies, which imposes lower regulatory requirements on emerging players until they reach a certain size.	英国针对金融技术企业的“监管沙箱”是这方面比较出色的模式，其核心是在达到一定规模前对新兴企业执行较低的监管要求。


Financial inclusion is vital for inclusive economic growth and gender equality, and it has assumed a prominent role in global development efforts, with the World Bank aiming for universal financial inclusion by 2020.	金融包容性对实现包容性经济增长和性别平等至关重要，而且随着世界银行旨在到2020年实现全面金融覆盖，其在全球发展工作中已经发挥了显著的作用。


With billions of people in emerging economies already using mobile phones, digital finance makes this goal achievable.	随着手机在数十亿新兴经济体民众中的普及，数字金融使我们完全有可能实现这一目标。


The Changing Development Order	改变中的发展秩序


DUBAI – The Millennium Development Goals established a successful framework for the world to address fundamental social issues such as poverty, health, hunger, and education.	迪拜—千年发展目标（MDG）为世界建立了一个成功的克服贫困、健康、饥饿和教育等根本性社会问题的框架。


As discussions commence on the shape and scope of the global development agenda that will succeed the MDGs, which expire in 2015, it would be helpful to consider the role of the private sector and rethink the international community’s overall approach to development.	随着人们开始讨论作为MDG（将于2015年到期）继任者的全球发展日程的范围和内涵，考虑私人部门的角色和反思国际社会对发展的总体看法是大有裨益的。


Economic development is the best way – indeed, the only way – to achieve sustainable poverty reduction.	经济发展是实现可持续减贫的最佳方式——事实上，也是唯一方式。


It creates a virtuous circle.	它可以带来良性循环。


Growth creates jobs, and jobs reduce poverty.	增长带来就业，就业降低贫困。


The private sector has a key role to play.	私人部门能起到关键作用。


Private-sector capital flows now dwarf traditional public-sector aid flows.	如今，私人部门资本流已经让传统公共部门援助相形见绌。


For example, of the $200 billion in total US resources dedicated to development in 2010, 87% came from private flows.	比如，在2010年美国用于发展的总额为2000亿美元的资源中，有87%来自私人部门。


By contrast, in the 1960’s, official overseas development assistance accounted for 70% of capital flows into developing countries.	相反，在20世纪60年代，官方海外发展援助占据流向发展中国资本流的70%。


A similar picture prevails globally.	类似的局面是全球性的。


Domestic resource mobilization, remittances from expatriate workers, private debt and equity flows, and philanthropic contributions exceed official international aid by a wide margin.	本国资源流动、侨汇、私人债务和股本流以及慈善捐赠大大超过了官方国际援助。


Private flows are no longer the tail, but the dog that wags the development agenda.	私人资本流不再是无关紧要的配角，而是发展日程中的主角。


Nonetheless, much of the development-policy community remains stuck in the distant past.	尽管如此，发展政策界人大多对私人部门敬而远之。


For example, policymakers insist on the importance of “public-private partnerships” and argue that the private sector needs “to learn to work with the public sector.”	比如，决策者坚持“公私合作”的重要性，并认为私人部门需要“学习与公共部门合作”。


But today’s reality would be better described as “private-philanthropic-public partnerships” (expressed in that order to reflect each component’s relative importance), or “P-4.”	但对于如今的现实，更合适的表述是“私人-慈善-公共合作”（又称P-4，用词先后反映各自的相对重要性）。


We need to persuade public institutions to focus on how to work better with their private counterparts, not vice versa, because the public and private sectors have a shared interest in accelerating economic development and ensuring that everyone benefits from globalization.	我们需要说服公共机构关注如何更好地与私人部门合作，而不是相反，因为公共和私人部门有着共同的利益——加快经济发展、确保人人都能从全球化中获益。


This is not meant to diminish the important role played by the public sector, which alone can create the conditions – the rule of law, sound macroeconomic policies, and good regulatory regimes – needed for the private sector to flourish.	这并不是要贬低公共部门的重要性，光靠公共部门便能创造出私人部门茁壮成长的条件——法治精神、可靠的宏观经济政策和良好的监管机制。


For example, they catalyze the development of supportive property and customs regimes, including the establishment of credit bureaus and laws to protect creditors’ rights – all necessary prerequisites to channel financing flows.	比如，这些条件催化了支持性产权和关税机制的发展，包括建立信用局和制定保护债权人权利的法律——这些都是引导融资流的必要前提。


Possibly the biggest prize in aligning private- and public-sector development efforts lies in the relatively unexplored area of blended finance.	或许将私人和公共部门发展措施联系起来的最大好处在于相对来说开发程度较低的混合金融（blended finance）。


We have barely scratched the surface in integrating the efforts of development finance institutions (DFIs) with private and philanthropic initiatives, which could make the whole greater than the sum of its parts.	我们很少触及能产生整体大于部分之和效应的整合发展金融机构（DFI）动作和私人和慈善项目方面的工作，即使有也流于表面。


A World Economic Forum study estimates that, when aligned, an annual increase of only $36 billion in public-sector investment in climate change could be leveraged to 16 times that amount by mobilizing $570 billion of private capital.	世界经济论坛的研究估算，一旦联合起来，每年在气候变化方面只要新增360亿美元的公共部门投资，就能撬动16倍的资金，动员5700亿美元的私人资本。


In fact, to improve alignment and reflect the new P-4 order, government agencies and DFIs should be encouraged to establish explicit targets for leveraging private capital.	事实上，为了增进联合、反映新的P-4顺序，政府机构和DFI应该鼓励设定明确的撬动私人的资本目标。


Particularly in an age of lean governments and public austerity, success in meeting such targets should become a key performance indicator.	特别是在小政府和公共紧缩时期，实现这些目标应该成为重要的绩效指标。


What should the private sector do better?	私人部门应该在那些方面做得更好？


While there are many examples of responsible companies that want to “do well by doing good,” sustainability and development goals are not always integrated into businesses’ core agenda.	尽管不乏有希望把“好事做尽”的负责任的公司，但可持续性和发展目标并不总是契合企业的核心日程。


Total shareholder return (TSR) and corporate social responsibility (CSR) often seem completely divorced from each other.	总体股东回报（TSR）和公司社会责任（CSR）通常南辕北辙。


The thinking, mostly implicit, is that maximizing TSR by polluting the environment is acceptable as long as some compensating contributions are made to CSR initiatives – the corporate equivalent of bathing in the Ganges to wash away one’s sins.	公司的思维（通常暗地里如此）是，通过污染环境实现TSR最大化是可以接受的，只要给CSR项目做一些贡献作为补偿——就好像在恒河里洗一洗就能带走一个人的罪恶一样。


We need a new standard that requires companies to report not just their financial metrics, but also their performance on social, developmental, and environmental issues.	我们需要新的标准，要求公司不但要报告财务报表，还要报告在社会、发展和环境问题上的表现。


For maximum impact, and in order to restore public trust in corporations, the standards must be global, clear, and consistent.	为了获得最大效果，也为了重塑公众对公司的信任，标准必须是全球性的、明确的、一致的。


The other reality of the post-MDG world is the multi-directionality of development flows.	另一个后MDG时代的现实是发展流的多方向性。


Traditionally, development flows were unidirectional, going from the wealthy North to the impoverished South.	传统上，发展流是单向的，从富国流向贫穷的南方国家。


But the world order has changed.	但世界秩序已经发证了改变。


Emerging markets and developing countries now account for 50% of global GDP and 75% of global growth, and demographics will further accentuate the shift in the center of economic gravity.	新兴市场和发展中国家目前占据了全球GDP的50%和全球增长的75%，人口也有利于经济重心的进一步变化。


“Southern” countries such as Brazil, China, and India, to name only a few, are enhancing their contributions to overseas development.	巴西、中国、印度这样的“南方”国家正在加强它们的海外发展援助。


Domestic resources and diaspora remittances are increasingly funding development.	国内资源和侨汇越来越多地支持着发展。


As countries become less reliant on traditional sources of financing, they are less likely to follow foreign diktats blindly.	随着各国越来越少地以来传统融资源，它们也不再需要盲从外国人的意见。


Indeed, people in developing countries are increasingly demanding a stronger voice in determining what is good for them.	事实上，发展中国家的人们越来越多地要求在决定什么对他们有利方面拥有更大的决定权。


The North’s old “we know what is good for you” approach, however well-informed or well-intentioned, will no longer work.	北方的“我们知道什么才是为你好”的思维已不再管用，不管它的信息多么全面，初衷多么良好。


A more inclusive approach that reflects local conditions and preferences is essential.	更包容的、反映本地条件和偏好的思维才是关键。


The P-4 approach reflects the new global realities and seeks to leverage the best qualities of the private, philanthropic, and public sectors.	P-4观点反映了新的全球现实，并寻求撬动最好的私人、慈善和公共部门。


Models of Madness	疯狂的模式


Mental health services around the world are largely based on the assumption that being upset or disoriented is a sort of condition like medical illnesses.	全世界的精神健康服务都基于这样一个假设：即心神烦躁和混乱是一种和生理疾病一样的状态。


Here in Australasia, we imported this perspective from overseas, actively suppressing more holistic Maori and Aboriginal understandings about human distress.	在澳大拉西亚，我们从海外引入了这种观点，并积极地压制毛利人和当地土著对人类忧虑的更为完整的理解。


We did so despite numerous studies that show that recovery rates from “mental illness” in “underdeveloped” countries are far superior to those in “advanced” societies.	尽管无数的研究结果表明在“欠发达”国家中的精神疾患康复率远比在“发达国家”的要高，但我们仍然我行我素。


Nowadays, more and more problems are being redefined as “disorders” or “illnesses,” supposedly caused by genetic predispositions and biochemical imbalances.	当今，越来越多的问题正被重新定义为“症”或“病”。 它们被认为是由遗传的易患病体质和生物化学失衡引起的。


Life events are relegated to mere triggers of an underlying biological time bomb.	生活经历被归结为仅仅是引爆上述生物定时炸弹的触发因素。


Thus, feeling very sad has become “depressive disorder.”	因此，感觉非常悲伤就会成为“抑郁症”。


Worrying too much is “anxiety disorder.”	过于担心就是“焦虑症”。


Being painfully shy has become “avoidant personality disorder.”	非常害羞则被冠以“回避型人格障碍”。


Beating up people is “intermittent explosive disorder.”	喜欢殴打他人就是“间歇性爆发性障碍”。


Excessive gambling, drinking, drug use, or eating are also illnesses.	过度的赌博、饮酒、服药或进食也都是疾病。


The same applies to having too little food, sleep, or sex.	同样的定义方式也适用于厌食、厌睡和性冷淡。


Our Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders has 886 pages of such illnesses.	我们的《精神疾病治疗和统计手册》有足足886页来纪录这些疾病。


Unusual or undesirable behaviors are called “symptoms” and the labels are “diagnoses.”	非常态的、不合时宜的行为被称作“症状”，而这些疾病的名称标签就是“诊断”。


Our children are labeled, too.	就连我们的儿童也被贴上了标签。


Being bad at math has become “mathematics disorder.”	数学差就是“数学障碍”。


Ignoring other people’s feelings (once called being naughty) means that the child is suffering from “conduct disorder.”	不顾他人感受（曾经被叫做顽皮）的小孩则罹患“行为障碍”。


If this includes getting angry at grownups, he or she (usually he) has “oppositional defiant disorder.”	如果在其行为中还包括对成年人发脾气，那么他或她（通常是他）还患有“反抗行为障碍”。


A “diagnosis” frequently in the news is “attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.”	一种新闻中常见的“诊断”是“注意力缺陷多动症”。


The “symptoms” include fidgeting, losing things, talking excessively, and difficulty playing quietly or taking turns.	其“症状”包括坐立不安、丢三拉四、讲话过多并在安静地玩耍和遵守次序方面有困难。


Of course some children sometimes have problems. But does anyone help them?	当然有的儿童有时会出现问题，但有人在帮助他们吗？


Perhaps it sometimes conceals the causes, while locating the problem entirely within the child, who is often stigmatized as a result.	可能我们在完全从小孩身上发现问题的时候却忽略了真正的原因。 而小孩往往被描述为结果。


Indeed, making lists of behaviors, applying medical-sounding labels to people who manifest them, and then using the presence of those behaviors to prove that a person has the illness in question is scientifically meaningless.	的确，列举行为模式，将听似专业的医学标签贴在表现出这些行为的人身上，接着再用他们的这些行为来证明这个人患有所说的这种疾病—这在科学上是毫无意义的。


It tells us nothing about causes or solutions.	它对我们寻找原因和解决方案没有任何帮助。


How did this simplistic, certainly unscientific, and frequently damaging approach gain such dominance?	这种过分简单化、毫无科学性而又通常具有破坏性的治疗方式如何能够大行其道呢？


First, it is tempting to avoid facing the painful events in our lives that might be the cause of our difficulties.	首先，它试图避免直面我们生活中那些痛苦的，并可能造成不良精神状况的事件。


If we just accept the diagnosis on offer, nobody is to blame.	如果我们接受现成的诊断，那么就不用责怪任何人了。


Nobody needs do anything differently – except take the tablets.	除了服用药物以外，没人需要再自行其是。


We were just unlucky enough to get the “illness.”	我们得了这种“病”是因为我们太不走运了。


Second, a model of individual pathology is invaluable to politicians.	其次，一种个体病理学的模式对政客们而言是无价之宝。


They don’t need to spend money on prevention programs to address the psycho-social problems –overwhelming stress, poverty, discrimination, child neglect and abuse, and loneliness, to name but a few – that research has repeatedly demonstrated play a large role in undermining mental health.	他们不需要在应对心理社会问题的预防性项目上花钱。 而科学研究已经无数次地表明无法承受的压力、贫穷、歧视、忽视和虐待儿童以及孤独等不一而足的问题为精神健康埋下了巨大的隐患。


Third, exciting developments in technologies for studying our brains and genes have created the hope that we are about to discover the biological causes of, and solutions to, human misery and confusion.	再者，在研究人类大脑和基因的技术方面的重大发展，为我们带来了发现人类痛苦和纷扰的生物原因及解决方案的希望。


Finally, a new player has entered the nature-nurture debate.	最后，一位新的选手加入了这场先天—后天的论战。


The pharmaceutical industry, fueled by our desire for quick fixes, has effectively deployed its considerable power to promulgate the notion of “disorders” and “illnesses” in all domains of our lives.	在我们药到病除的愿望驱使下，制药业充分发挥其巨大能量，将“症”和“病”的概念引入了我们生活的方方面面。


The fundamental purpose of drug companies is to produce profits for shareholders.	制药公司的根本目的就是为其股东赢利。


Naturally, they encourage us to diagnose eating, sleeping, or feeling too much (or too little) as illnesses requiring a chemical cure.	所以他们很自然地鼓励我们将过多（或过少）的进食、睡眠或感情诊断为需要某种化学药物治疗的疾病。


Having listened for 20 years to people unfortunate enough to be labeled “schizophrenic,” considered to be the most extreme form of “mental illness,” and having subsequently researched the causes of hallucinations and delusions for ten years, I believe that the public understands madness better than we experts.	聆听了二十年被诊断为“精神分裂症”这种最为极端的“精神疾病”的不幸人们的故事，对幻觉和错觉也有了十年的研究，我相信公众比我们这些专家更了解疯狂。


Surveys of public opinion all over the world find that most people believe that emotional problems, including those deemed severe, such as hearing voices, are primarily caused by bad things happening to us rather than by faulty brains or genes.	全世界范围的民意调查表明，大多数人认为情绪问题，包括那些被认为是很严重的，如幻听等，主要是由发生在我们身上的不幸经历引起的，而不是大脑或基因的原因。


The public also favors psycho-social approaches, such as talking to someone and getting advice, or help finding friends or a job, rather than drugs, electro-shocks, or admission to psychiatric hospital.	公众也很愿意采用心理—社会疗法，比如与人交谈和寻求建议，或结交朋友乃至找一份工作，而不是通过药物、电击或进入精神病院治疗的方式。


Some experts, however, dismiss these views as “mental health illiteracy.”	然而有的专家却认为这些观点纯属“精神健康盲”的表现。


They continue to insist that mental illness is an illness like any other, despite many studies showing that the more we adopt this medical model, the more prejudiced and frightened we become.	尽管许多研究表明我们越多地采用这种医学模式，我们的歧视心态和恐惧心理就越严重，但他们仍然继续坚持认为精神病与其他疾患并无二至。


Mental health services should offer something more than having our feelings chemically suppressed, or having our children’s difficulties sitting still controlled by amphetamines (which, apart from teaching children that problems are best solved with drugs, stunt growth by an average of one centimeter per year).	精神健康服务应该给予人们更多的东西，而不仅仅是采用药物的方式压抑我们的情感，或用安非他命来控制儿童的情绪困难。 （除了教会孩子们可以用药物来解决问题之外，这种药物平均每年还会阻碍他们长高一厘米。


A wide range of effective treatments are available that don’t cause weight gain, sexual dysfunction, diabetes, memory loss, or addiction.	我们已经有了很多有效的疗法。 它们不会导致增重、性功能障碍、糖尿病、记忆损失或上瘾。


Funders and policymakers who keep up with the relevant research are slowly beginning to introduce more talking therapies (such as cognitive therapy and trauma-focused counseling), more alternatives to hospitalization, more culturally appropriate services, more family-focused therapy and, most importantly, more genuine consultation with service users about what actually works.	关注相关研究的资金提供者和政策制定者们逐渐开始引入更多的谈话治疗（比如认知治疗和以精神创伤为重点的心理咨询）、更多替代住院的治疗方案、更具文化适应性的服务、更多以家庭为中心的治疗和最为重要的、与服务使用者的个体情况相适应的真正会诊。


If these new treatments aren’t used more frequently, this isn’t because they don’t work.	如果这些新的疗法没有被更多的使用，并不是因为它们效果不好。


The main obstacle is that they won’t increase the profits of drug companies, on which, in the absence of adequate government funding, our professional organizations, conferences, journals, research, and teaching institutions have become so dependent.	最主要的障碍是它们不会增加制药公司的收益。 而在政府资金支持不足的情况下，我们许多的专业组织、会议、学术刊物、研究和教学机构在很大程度上都要依靠制药公司的赞助。


The Misrule of Law	伪法治


MADRID – Once upon a time, despots simply acted like despots.	马德里—曾几何时，暴君就是暴君。


Nowadays, they dress up their dictatorships in the trappings of the rule of law.	如今，他们的独裁会披上法治的画皮。


Consider Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.	就拿乌克兰总统亚努科维奇来说吧。


Less than a year after his narrow victory over opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko in the 2010 presidential elections, Tymoshenko was arrested on trumped-up contempt charges.	2010年，他在总统选举中险胜反对派领袖季莫申科。 不出一年，季莫申科就因伪造的藐视法庭指控而被捕。


She is now serving a seven-year prison sentence for supposedly abusing her position as Prime Minister by signing a gas deal with Russia – and awaits the completion of two more trials.	如今她正在服七年徒刑，罪名是在总理任上滥用职权，和俄罗斯签署了天然气交易。 她还在等待令两项审判的宣判。


Unlike most politically motivated trials, Tymoshenko’s case benefits from the oversight of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), which recently ruled that her pre-trial detention violated the European Convention on Human Rights.	与大部分出于政治动机的审判不同，季莫申科的案子因欧洲人权法庭（ECHR）的监督而受益，ECHR最近作出裁决，季莫申科审判前羁押违反了欧洲人权公约（European Convention on Human Rights）。


But Yanukovych continues to feign respect for the rule of law, insisting that he cannot consider granting her a presidential pardon until the legal proceedings have been concluded.	但亚努科维奇继续装作尊重法治，称自己不能考虑给予季莫申科总统特赦，除非法律程序全部完成。


This type of “misrule of law” is not unique to Ukraine.	这种类型的“伪法治”并非乌克兰所独有。


Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently used the courts to neutralize his opponents.	俄罗斯总统普京一直在使用法庭抑制反对者。


Currently, the anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny, a prominent critic of Putin’s regime, is being prosecuted for allegedly conspiring to embezzle from a state-owned timber firm, while Sergei Magnitsky, a lawyer who died in prison after accusing several Russian officials of large-scale embezzlement, is being tried posthumously on conspiracy charges.	最近，反腐败活动家、普京政权的著名批评者纳瓦尔尼（Alexei Navalny）因受控密谋盗用某国有木材企业公款而被起诉，与此同时，在起诉多名俄罗斯官员大量盗用公款后死于狱中的律师马格尼茨基（Sergei Magnitsky）在死后被指犯有密谋罪。


Similarly, opposition leaders in Zimbabwe have been prosecuted for treason; sodomy charges were leveled against the Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim; and former Belarusian presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov was imprisoned for allegedly organizing mass protests.	类似地，津巴布韦反对派领袖因叛国罪被起诉； 马来西亚反对派领袖易卜拉欣（Anwar Ibrahim）被控鸡奸；


Iran pursued mass prosecutions of government critics following President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s controversial reelection in 2009, and it now appears that some of Ahmadinejad’s allies may themselves become collateral damage in his conflict with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, facing politically motivated criminal trials.	前白俄罗斯总统候选人萨尼科夫（Andrei Sannikov）因被控组织群众示威而被捕入狱。 2009年内贾德在争议声中获得连任后大量起诉政府批评者，发展到如今，一些内贾德的盟友也受到了附带伤害，成了他与最高领导人哈梅内伊斗争的牺牲品，面临出于政治动机的刑事审判。


Of course, history is replete with examples of autocrats perverting justice: Stalin had his Moscow Trials, and Hitler had his People’s Court.	当然，历史充斥着独裁者假装公正的例子：斯大林及其莫斯科审判、希特勒及其人民法庭，等等。


But the authority of those dictators did not rest primarily on the rule of law; that of their modern counterparts does.	但这些独裁者的威权并不像他们的现代同道一样首先建立在法治的基础上。


The sociologist Max Weber described three bases of authority: traditional, charismatic, and rational (legal).	社会学家马克斯·韦伯描述了威权的三大基础：传统、魅力和理性（法律）。


The first has fallen away, its accompanying social structures superseded by industrialization, urbanization, and feminization of the workforce, while the oft-seen link with despotism has delegitimized the second.	第一个基础已经不复存在，其相应的社会结构已被工业化、城市化和工作人口女性化取代，而时常可见的与独裁的联系让第二个基础失去了合法性。


As a result, legality has emerged as the main source of political legitimacy in the modern world.	于是，法律成为现代世界政治合法性的主要来源。


Consequently, those who are more interested in arbitrary authority than legality are using the language of law to legitimize their actions – and weakening the rule of law in the process.	结果热衷于独夫统治甚于法律者用法律的语言来让其行为合法化——并在此过程中削弱法治。


Barely a week after prosecutors accused Tymoshenko – based, yet again, on mere hearsay – of organizing the 1996 assassination of a member of parliament, Yanukovych proclaimed: “Our goal is to ensure real economic and political independence, strengthen democracy and the rule of law, and establish Ukraine as [a] young, powerful, and modern state.”	在检察官起诉季莫申科——其依据仅仅是流言——组织了1996年行刺某国会议员的行动后大约一周，亚努科维奇说：“我们的目标是确保真正的经济和政治独立、强化民主和法治，以及将乌克兰建成年轻、强大和现代的国家。


This disturbingly common disconnect between official words and deeds devalues the rule of law in the eyes of the public.	”这一令人不安的说一套做一套极大地破坏了法治在公众眼中的价值。


Two separate discussions about the rule of law are currently underway: an erudite, theoretical debate among elites at think tanks and universities, and a more general – and more consequential – popular “conversation” predicated on frustration with legal abuses.	目前有两种不同的关于法治的讨论：一种是学究式的理论争论，在智库和大学精英之间展开； 另一种是更普遍——后果也越大——公众“对话”，这是因滥用法律引起的沮丧感导致的。


From southern Europe to Malaysia and China, citizens are taking to the streets to demonstrate their desire for equity and justice.	从南欧到马来西亚和中国，公民走上街头表达对平等和公正的渴望。


They may not be able to define the rule of law precisely, but they know when it is being perverted.	他们可能没有经确定义法治的能力，但他们知道法治什么时候会走入歧途。


In countries with an engaged civil society and room for debate, the discourse on the rule of law can be wide-ranging and substantive.	在存在充分参与的公民社会和争论空间的国家关于法治的话题范围宽广且名符其实。


Too often, however, governments ignore or distort public aspirations, stripping the discussion of all but officially approved platitudes.	但是，政府经常会忽视或扭曲公众愿望，让讨论演变为官方批准的陈词滥调。


In order to reverse this trend, a third discussion, one that engages the international community, is needed.	为了扭转这一趋势，就需要第三种讨论——国际社会参与的讨论。


While such a discussion is beginning to emerge in response to the Tymoshenko case, the ECHR is a lonely voice, and the international community has so far hesitated to challenge violations of the rule of law publicly.	季莫申科案让这类讨论开始出现，但ECHR的声音是孤独的，国际社会目前对于挑战公然违反法治的行为仍犹豫不决。


At the same time, some institutions that could provide effective international oversight have been coopted, as demonstrated by Libya’s leadership of the United Nations Commission on Human Rights while under the control of deposed dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi.	与此同时，一些可以提供有效国际监督的机构被收买，比如利比亚在联合国人权委员会中占领导地位，而该国被独裁者卡扎菲所控制。


And others have been far too willing to accept at face value submissions from countries where the rule of law is routinely abused.	其他机构则面不改色地接受往往滥用法治的国家的表面文章。


For example, while Interpol recently rejected Russia’s request to pursue the investment banker William F. Browder (a fierce critic of the Russian government since the death of his lawyer, Magnitsky), it should apply Article 3 of its constitution, which bars it from participating in political matters, much more scrupulously.	比如，国际刑警组织最近拒绝了俄罗斯通缉投资银行家布劳德尔（William F. Browder，自律师马格尼茨基死亡后，他猛烈地抨击俄罗斯政府）的要求，但它应该使用其宪章第三条，该条极为谨慎，禁止国际刑警组织参与政治案件。


The response to legal abuses has often been timid or declaratory, carried out by individual countries or communities like the European Union in response to specific violations.	对法律滥用的反应通常是小心翼翼或公告性质，反应者通常是个别国家或社会（如欧盟），反应对象通常是具体的违反行为。


For example, the United States recently banned 18 Russian officials, most of whom were allegedly linked to Magnitsky’s death, from traveling to the US and froze all assets that they hold there.	比如，美国最近禁止18名俄罗斯官员入境并冻结其在美国持有的资产，他们大多被指与马格尼茨基之死有关。


But, while unilateral pressure can make a difference, the rule of law’s defenders must be willing to apply it convincingly.	但是，尽管单方面压力可以造成不同局面，法治的捍卫者仍必须拿出有力有礼有节的意愿。


The EU’s talks with Ukraine on a proposed Association Agreement, for example, provide some leverage, which the EU should not hesitate to use.	比如，欧盟与乌克兰就某合作协定（Association Agreement）提议的谈判就产生了一些影响，欧盟应该毫不犹豫地利用它。


At the same time, the potential impact of targeted action by individual governments is not enough.	与此同时，个别政府的有目标的行动的潜在影响还不够。


Protection of the rule of law must become an international priority – and that will require strong leadership.	保护法治必须成为国际优先项——而这需要坚强的领导。


The EU – which was not only founded on the rule of law, but is also among its most vocal defenders in its diplomatic relationships – should fill this role.	欧盟——它不但建立在法治的基础上，也是其外交关系中最坚定的法治捍卫者——应该承担这一角色。


Beyond the ECHR and its rulings in cases like that of Tymoshenko, a strong European voice would go a long way toward galvanizing broader international action.	除了ECHR及其在类似季莫申科案的案件中的裁决，强大的欧洲声音还可以走的更远，刺激更广泛的国际行动。


Modernization à la Carte?	按菜单定菜的现代化


BERLIN -- Two centuries ago the American and French Revolutions brought forth the natural law concept of inalienable human rights.	柏林-两个世纪以前美国和法国革命为我们带来了人权不可剥夺的自然法观念。


However, it took nearly two centuries of wars, political and social disasters, and decolonization before this idea became globally accepted, at least in theory.	然而，在经过了将近两个世纪的战争、政治和社会灾难以及非殖民化后，这种观念才至少是在理论上为全球所接受。


In the beginning, the idea of human rights was limited to domestic politics.	一开始，人权的概念仅仅局限于国内政治。


In international relations, power, not right, continued to be the only thing that mattered: the traditional concept of state sovereignty focused exclusively on power, i.e., on control over people and territory, and protected the state’s authority, regardless of whether its enforcement was civilized or brutal, democratic or authoritarian.	在国际关系方面，强权而不是权利依然是发挥作用的唯一因素。 国家主权的传统观念只集中在权力上，即对人民和领土的控制以及保护国家权威，不管这种权威权是以文明还是残暴、民主还是专制的方式来行使的。


The Nuremberg Trials of the German war criminals after World War II marked the first important change in the world’s understanding of the concept of sovereignty.	二战后对德国战犯的纽伦堡审判标志着世界对于主权概念认识的第一次重大改变。


For the first time, an entire state leadership was put on trial for its crimes, as its representatives and henchmen were brought to justice.	这是第一次整个国家的领导层因为它的罪行而被推上审判席，它的代表和帮凶被送交法庭审判。


The Nuremberg Trials and, in parallel, the creation of the United Nations and its Universal Declaration of Human Rights, signaled the growing importance of law in international relations.	纽伦堡审判以及与之同一时期产生的联合国和《世界人权宣言》标志着在国际关系中法律开始变得越来越重要。


Sovereignty was no longer based solely on power, but increasingly on law and respect for the rights of citizens.	主权不再只基于权力，而是越来越注重法律和对公民权利的尊重。


This process was largely frozen during the five decades of the Cold War.	这一进程在50年的冷战期间很大程度上被冻结了。


But human rights and the rule of law began to re-emerge as a theme of Western policy, especially in the wake of the Helsinki Conference on European Security and Cooperation and its use by the administration of US President Jimmy Carter, as well as by numerous non-governmental advocates protesting the treatment of Soviet dissidents.	但是人权和法治开始重新成为西方政策的一个主题，尤其是在赫尔辛基欧洲安全和合作会议之后以及卡特政府对它的运用，还有无数非政府的倡导者抗议苏联对其国内持不同政见者的处置。


The next big step was the emergence of the concept of humanitarian intervention after the genocide in Rwanda and the Balkan wars in the 1990’s.	下一个较大的步骤是二十世纪九十年代卢旺达大屠杀以及巴尔干半岛战争后人道主义干涉概念的出现。


As a result, international law came to recognize the “right of protection” against governmental arbitrariness and states’ crimes against their own people, even though enforcement remains quite uncertain.	其结果是，国际法认识到了针对国家对其自己的国民的罪行出面进行“保护的权利”，尽管具体如何执行尚无定论。


Finally, the same developments in politics and international law led to the creation of the International Court of Justice.	最后，政治和国际法的发展引发了国际法庭的成立。


With its establishment, resulting from long and terrible experience, the basic idea of modernity – that the power of states and their rulers should be subject to the rule of higher law, thus placing individual rights above state sovereignty – has taken a great step forward.	它的成立是在经过长期和痛苦的经历后，现代化的基本概念即国家的权力和它的统治者应该遵守更高的法治，从而把个人的权利置于国家的主权之上，向前迈出了一大步。


This development was anything but accidental.	这种发展绝非偶然。


In the face of the totalitarian challenges of fascism and communism in the twentieth century, Europe and the United States have become aware that the rule of law, separation of powers, and democracy decisively determine foreign policy and matter greatly from the point of view of international security.	二十世纪在面对法西斯主义和共产主义的极权主义挑战时，欧洲和美国认识到法治、分权和民主对外交政策起着决定性的作用，并且对国际安全有着重大的影响。


Democracies have proved to be much more peaceful than authoritarian regimes and dictatorships.	民主已经被证明比极权统治和独裁要和平得多。


But the progress achieved so far is again under threat.	但是我们所取得的进展现在再次面临着威胁。


China’s rise and Russia’s resurgence suggest that there is no necessary link between economic development, on the one hand, and political and cultural modernization, on the other.	中国的崛起和俄罗斯的复苏表明在经济发展和政治及文化的现代化之间并不存在必然的联系。


In particular, China’s breathtaking economic success seems to point to the existence of viable authoritarian alternatives to the Western idea that freedom, democracy, the rule of law, and the market economy are bound together.	尤其是中国在经济上所取得的令人震惊的成功似乎表明存在着将自由、民主、法治以及市场经济捆绑在一起的西方观念可行的极权主义替代物。


Indeed, China appears to suggest that selective modernization is possible (modernization à la carte, so to speak), allowing states to choose to implement only those elements of modernity – technology, economics, infrastructure, political institutions, and values – that they like.	事实上，中国的例子似乎表明有选择的现代化是可能的（让我们称之为按菜单定菜的现代化），国家可以从技术、经济、基础设施、政治体制和价值观等现代化的因素中根据喜好选择只进行某些方面的现代化。


But modernization à la carte is an illusion.	但是按菜单定菜的现代化只是一种幻想。


Its proponents forget the experience of the first half of the twentieth century, when authoritarian modernization was tried in both Germany and Russia –with disastrous results.	它的支持者忘记了二十世纪上半叶的教训，德国和俄罗斯进行的极权统治下的现代化带来了灾难性的后果。


In the medium term, modernity is indivisible: you can have all of it or none.	从中期角度看，现代化是不可分的：你要么全部拥有，要么就什么也没有。


The deep technological and social changes unleashed by the forces of modernity create tensions that, in the end, cannot be resolved without appropriate normative and institutional responses.	现代化的力量所带来的技术和社会深度变革制造了紧张关系，而如果缺乏恰当的规范和制度上的回应，它们最终将无法解决。


China and Russia today are no exceptions.	今天的中国和俄罗斯也不例外。


The symptoms of the disease of selective modernization are clearly discernible in both countries in the form of ubiquitous corruption.	两个国家所推行的有选择的现代化病症的症状以无处不在的腐败现象明显地表现出来。


China, for example, faces increasing export difficulties because of deficient control of the safety of its products, which is largely the result of corruption.	比如，中国因为对其食品安全的监管不够而面临越来越多的出口问题，这在很大程度上是腐败所造成的。


Without a commitment to a free press and an independent judiciary, these difficulties will only intensify.	在没有自由的媒体和独立的司法系统的情况下，这些问题只会越来越严重。


Before too long, Russia’s “managed” (read: authoritarian) modernization will also have to allow for the rule of law and a functioning separation of powers, or the country will remain dependent on oil and gas prices and mired in a brutal struggle for power, influence, and money.	不用多久，俄罗斯“受控制”的（即极权主义的）现代化将同样不得不允许法治和有效的分权，否则这个国家将继续���赖于石油和天然气储备并且陷入对权力、影响力和金钱的残酷争夺中。


Moreover, neither oil and gas deposits nor imperialist policies will stop Russia’s decline.	此外，石油和天然气储备和帝国主义的政策都不能阻止俄罗斯走向衰落。


Without functioning democratic institutions, Russia’s second attempt at selective modernization will fail just as certainly as its previous, Soviet incarnation did.	没有有效的民主体制，俄罗斯对有选择的现代化所进行的第二次尝试注定会像苏联时期所进行的尝试遭受失败。


In the globalized world of the twenty-first century, in which crises in one part of the world spread like wildfire to others, selective modernization, based on suppression of the conflicts and tensions that modernization generates, is likely to be even more dangerous.	在二十一世纪全球化的世界里，发生在世界某个地区的危机会像野火一样传到其他地区，而依靠压制现代化所造成的冲突和紧张关系的有选择的现代化很可能会更加危险。


Indeed, while the greatest threats to peace once came from power politics and economic rivalry, they now increasingly derive from the regional and global repercussions of the political and social disintegration of stable countries, a decline of their normative and institutional systems, and new totalitarian ideologies.	事实上，尽管对和平的最大危险曾经来自强权政治和经济竞争，它现在却越来越多地来自稳定国家的政治和社会的分化、它们的规范体系和体制的衰退以及新的极权主义意识形态给地区和全球带来的影响。


This is why the opposition between so-called “realists” and “idealists” in foreign policy, and between proponents of “hard” and “soft” power, is proving to be a thing of the past.	这正是为什么在外交政策上所谓“现实主义者”和“理想主义者”以及“硬实力”和“软实力”的提倡者之间的对立正被证明已经成为过去的原因。


To be sure, states are still following traditional interest-oriented policies.	诚然，国家依然遵循着传统的以利益为中心的政策。


But such policies will be less and less able to guarantee peace and stability in the future.	但是这种政策将越来越难以保证未来的和平和稳定。


In the twenty-first century, human rights and security will be inextricably intertwined.	在二十一世纪，人权和安全将是交织在一起的。


Such is the outcome of globalization, i.e., the mutual dependence of 6.5 billion people in a single global economy and system of states.	这是全球化所带来的结果，即65亿人共同依赖于一个全球经济和国家体系。


Modernizing Multilateralism	多边主义的现代化


WASHINGTON, DC – 2008 will be remembered as a year of extraordinary turmoil.	华盛顿特区-2008年作为及其动荡的一年，将会被历史记住。


The financial crisis came on the heels of food and fuel crises.	金融危机紧跟着粮食和燃料的危机来临。


Now the world is in the midst of an economic crisis, which will lead to many job losses.	现在，世界正深陷于经济危机，这将导致许多人失业。


Virtually no country has escaped.	实际上，任何国家都难以逃脱危机的影响。


We are moving into a new danger zone, with heightened risks to exports and investment, to credit, banking systems, budgets, and balances of payments.	我们正在进入一个新的险区，出口和投资、信贷、银行系统、预算和国际收支的风险越来越高。


In 2009, we may see the first decline in global trade since 1982.	2009年，我们可能目睹全球贸易自1982年以来的首次下滑。


As always, the poor are the most defenseless.	一如往常，穷人是最无助的。


For developing countries, tighter credit conditions and much weaker growth mean that governments are less able to meet education and health goals, and to invest in the infrastructure needed to sustain growth.	对于发展中国家来说，贷款条件的更趋严格和增长的大幅度疲软，意味着政府实现其教育和保健目标的能力降低了，同时政府为维持增长需要而对必要的基础设施的投资能力也下降了。


Remittances are drying up.	汇款也枯竭了。


Already 100 million people have been driven into poverty as a result of high food and fuel prices, and current estimates suggest that every 1% decline in developing-country growth rates pushes an additional 20 million people into poverty.	已有1亿人由于食品和燃料价格的涨价陷入了贫困境地。 据目前估计，发展中国家的增长率每减少1 ％，就会增加2千万的贫困人口。


Countries are trying to break the credit freeze, bolster financial institutions, ease interest rates, strengthen safety nets, and revive consumption and investment in order to boost business, enable people to work, and lay the foundation for future growth.	各国正在努力打破信贷冻结，并扶持金融机构、减轻利率以及加强安全监管网、恢复消费和投资以促进商业，使人们有工作做，并给未来的增长奠定基础。


These steps will be most effective if countries act in concert, in a mutually supportive way.	如果国家之间能互相支持并采取一致行动，这些步骤将是最有效的。


Economic nationalism that seeks gains from the disadvantage of others will trigger ever more dangers.	而利用别国的弱点来为本国谋取利益的经济民族主义，将触发前所未有的大危险。


Global challenges require global solutions.	全球性的挑战需要全球性的解决方案。


In October, I called for modernizing multilateralism and markets to better reflect the changing world economy and to enable countries to act in concert to address interconnected problems.	10月份，我就呼吁对多边主义和市场加以现代化，这样能更好地反映世界经济的变化以及使各国采取一致行动来解决相互关联的问题。


Looking beyond the old G-7 system, we need a twenty-first-century approach to multilateralism through the dynamism of a flexible network, not new hierarchies of a fixed or static system. ampnbsp;	我们要超越七国集团，我们需要通过灵活的网络的活力，以二十一世纪的方式实行多边主义，而不是由固定的静态系统组成的新等级制度。


The new multilateralism must maximize the strengths of interdependent and overlapping actors and institutions, public and private.	新多边主义必须最大限度地发挥相互依存和相互重叠的行动者和公共及私人机构的优势。


It should reach beyond the traditional focus on finance and trade, to include other pressing economic and political issues: development, energy, climate change, and stabilizing fragile and post-conflict states.	它应超越把重点放在金融和贸易上的传统，而要囊括其它紧迫的经济和政治问题：如发展、能源、气候变化和使脆弱的和冲突后的那些国家趋于稳定。


It needs to draw together existing international institutions, with their expertise and resources, to reform them when necessary, and encourage effective cooperation and common action.	它需要集合现有的国际机构的专长和资源，在必要时对他们进行改革，并鼓励有效的合作和共同的行动。


Multilateralism, at its best, is a means for solving problems among countries, with the group at the table willing and able to take constructive action together.	多边主义的最佳作用就是一种解决国家之间问题的手段，它让各国愿意坐下来并能一起采取建设性的行动。


It needs to draw its strength – and legitimacy – from both broader participation and by achieving results.	它的力量与合法性，需要从更广泛的参与和所取得成果中获得。


November’s G-20 summit brought to the table for the first time the rising powers as active stakeholders to address the global financial crisis.	11月的20国集团首脑会议首次邀请作为积极利益相关方的正在崛起的国家参加，大家一起探讨解决全球金融危机。


They agreed to a good agenda, but the true test will be the follow-up.	虽然他们达成了一个良好的工作议程，但真正的考验将是后续的行动。


It is a positive step that leaders of major developed economies are now meeting with leaders from the rising economic powers.	这是一个积极的步骤，主要发达经济体的领导人开始与正在崛起的经济体领导人会面。


But the poorest developing countries must not be left out in the cold.	但是，最贫穷的发展中国家不应受冷落。


We will not solve this crisis, or put in place sustainable long-term solutions, by accepting a two-tier world.	承认世界只有两个级别，将无助于我们解决这一危机或是建立可持续的长期解决办法。


The goal must be to build an inclusive and sustainable globalization.	我们的目标必须是建立一个具有包容性和可持续性的全球化。


Trillions of dollars are now being spent on a financial rescue in the developed world.	数万亿美元现正用于对发达世界的金融援助。


By comparison, about $100 billion a year is currently being spent on overseas aid.	而相比之下，目前只有1000亿美元正用于海外援助。


We need a “human” rescue as well as a financial rescue.	除了财政救助，我们还需要“人道”救助。


In this environment, the global commitment to provide development assistance to the poorest countries must be paramount.ampnbsp;	在这种情况下，全球对最贫穷的国家提供发展援助的承诺必须是至高无上的。


At the World Bank Group, we are scaling up our financial support for those in need.	在世界银行集团，我们正在扩大我们的金融支持范围以帮助那些需要帮助的机构。


We are speeding up grants and long-term, interest-free loans to the world’s 78 poorest countries, half of them in Africa.	我们正在加快赠款和长期无息贷款给世界上78个最贫穷的国家，其中一半是非洲国家。


Donors last year pledged $42 billion over three years for the World Bank’s fund for these countries, the International Development Association (IDA).ampnbsp; This money is vital if we are to meet the Millennium Development Goals.	去年，捐助者认捐了在三年内将捐助420亿美元给世界银行为这些国家设立的基金，即国际发展协会（ IDA ） 。 如果我们要实现千年发展目标，这笔钱是至关重要的。


In addition, the Bank’s lending arm to developing countries, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), could make new commitments of more than $35 billion this fiscal year – almost triple last year’s – and up to $100 billion over the next three years.	此外，世界银行向发展中国家进行贷款的机构，即国际复兴与开发银行（IBRD），可能在本财年做出350亿美元以上的新承诺-这几乎是去年的两倍，并在今后三年可高达1000亿美元。


This increase is aimed at protecting the poorest and most vulnerable from harm, supporting countries that face borrowing problems because of broken credit markets, and helping to sustain investments upon which recovery and long-term development will depend.	这一增长旨在保护最贫穷和最弱小者不受伤害，和支持因信贷市场崩溃而面临借款问题的国家，并有助于维持复苏和长期发展所依赖的投资。


Our private sector arm, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), is launching or expanding three facilities to help the private sector, expected to total around $30 billion over the next three years.	我们的针对私营企业的部门，即国际金融公司（ IFC ），正要推出或扩大三项服务，在未来三年内预计将达到约300亿美元，以帮助私营部门。


They will address high-priority problems that have emerged in recent months: expanding trade finance, recapitalizing banks in poorer countries, and sustaining infrastructure investment by helping viable projects facing a liquidity crisis.ampnbsp;	他们将解决出现在���几个月里的高优先级别的问题：即扩大贸易融资， 对较穷的国家的银行进行资本额调整，以及帮助面临流动资金危机的可靠的项目以维持对基础设施的投资。


At the same time, we will continue special efforts to counter malnutrition and hunger, and provide energy to the poor.ampnbsp; Our newly launched $6 billion Climate Investment Funds will build practical experience with technology, forestation, and adaptation to support the United Nations negotiations on climate change and assist developing countries.	与此同时，我们将继续作出特别的努力以解决营养不良和饥饿的问题，并向穷人提供能源。 我们新推出的60亿美元的气候投资基金，将用技术、植树造林，和适应性来建立实际经验，以支持联合国关于气候变化的谈判，并协助发展中国家。


As the world digs out of the current financial and economic hole, we need to look further ahead.	当世界正努力摆脱目前的金融和经济黑洞之时，我们要把眼光放远。 今天的危机反映了一个相互关联的世界中闪电般的速度。


Today’s crises reflect the lightning speed of an interconnected world.ampnbsp; The factors that produced this globalization offer great opportunities to overcome poverty, increase opportunity, and open societies.ampnbsp; But we will need a new multilateralism to expand the availability of these benefits to all.	这些促成了全球化的因素提供了极大的机会以克服贫困、增加机会和开放社会。 但是，我们将需要一个新多边主义，以便让所有的人能更多地获得这些好处。


The Future of Force	武装力量的未来


MUNICH – At the World Economic Forum’s recent annual meeting in Davos, I participated in a panel of defense leaders to discuss the future of the military.	慕尼黑—在最近的达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上，我参与了一个由防务领导人组成的委员会，讨论军事的未来。


The issue we addressed is a critical one: What kind of war should militaries today be preparing to fight?	我们面对的问题是一个关键问题：当今军队应该准备打怎样的战争？


Governments have a very poor track record when it comes to answering this question.	政府在回答这一问题上的历史记录实在糟糕。


After the Vietnam War, for example, the United States’ armed forces suppressed what it had learned about counter-insurgency, only to rediscover it the hard way in Iraq and Afghanistan.	比如，越南战争后，美国武装部队将它所学到的反叛乱知识打入冷宫，结果在伊拉克和阿富汗战争又吃了二遍苦头。


America’s military interventions in these countries exemplify another key challenge of modern warfare.	美国对这些国家的军事干预彰显出现代战争的又一关键挑战。


As outgoing US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel pointed out in a recent interview, in war, “things can get out of control, and drift and wander” in ways that can cause a military to fall into a more “accelerated” use of force than was initially anticipated.	即将卸任的美国国防部长哈格尔在最新访问中指出，在战争中，“情况会失控，其漂移和移动”可能令军队比最初预想的更快“加速”使用武力。


Against this background, the notion that force alone can transform conflict-riven societies in the Middle East and elsewhere is a dangerous fallacy.	在此背景下，光靠武力就能改变饱受冲突困扰的中东和其他地区社会的概念是一个危险的谬误。


But, while war and force may be down, they are not out.	但是，尽管战争和武力在走下坡路，但远为退出历史舞台。


They are simply evolving according to a new “generation” of rules and tactics.	它们只是在根据新“一代”规则和战术演化。


The first generation of modern warfare comprised battles fought with massed manpower, using Napoleonic line and column formations.	第一代现代战争由大规模军队交战的战斗组成，采用拿破仑时期的方阵。


The second, which culminated in World War I, was driven by massed firepower, and is expressed in the saying, reportedly coined at the Battle of Verdun in 1916, “artillery conquers, infantry occupies.”	第二代现代战争在一战时发展到顶峰，由大规模火力推动，用起源于1916年凡尔登战役的说法说，就是“大炮征服，步兵占领”。


And the third generation – perfected by Germany with the “blitzkrieg” method employed in World War II – emphasized maneuver over force, with militaries using infiltration to bypass the enemy and collapse its force from the rear, rather than attacking frontally.	第三代现代战争——以德国在二战时期所使用的“闪击战”方法为巅峰——更强调机动而不是武力，军队通过渗透绕过敌军，从敌军背后发起进攻瓦解他们，而不是正面对碰。


Fourth-generation warfare takes this decentralized approach one step further, with no definable fronts at all.	第四代现代战争把这一分散化方法又往前推进了一步，不再有明确的前线。


Instead, it focuses on the enemy’s society, reaching deep into its territory to destroy political will.	相反，它关注敌方社会，深入敌方领土，摧毁其政治意志。


One might even add a fifth generation, in which technologies like drones and offensive cyber tactics allow soldiers to remain a continent away from their civilian targets.	你也可以再加上第五代现代战争，无人机和网络进攻战术可以让士兵在距离民用目标千里之外破敌。


While particular generational delineations are somewhat arbitrary, they reflect an important trend: the blurring of the military front and the civilian rear.	尽管具体的代际界限划分或多或少带有任意性，但它们反映了一个重要趋势：军事前线和民用后方分界日益模糊。


Accelerating this shift is the replacement of interstate war by armed conflict involving non-state actors such as insurgent groups, terrorist networks, militias, and criminal organizations.	加速这一变化的是包含了非国家行动方（如叛军集团、恐怖网络、“义勇军”和犯罪组织）的武装冲突取代了国家间战争。


Confusing matters further is the overlap among these groups, with some even receiving state support.	让情况进一步混乱的是这些组织之间互相重叠，其中一些甚至得到国家的支持。


The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – Latin America’s oldest guerilla group – formed alliances with narcotics cartels.	拉丁美洲最老牌的游击队——哥伦比亚革命武装力量（Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia）与大毒枭结成联盟。


Some Taliban groups in Afghanistan and elsewhere developed close ties with transnational Al Qaeda terrorists.	一些阿富汗和其他地区的塔利班组织与跨国基地组织恐怖分子关系密切。


The insurgents in eastern Ukraine are fighting alongside Russian troops (bearing no insignias).	乌克兰东部的叛军与俄罗斯军队（军服上没有标志）共同作战。


Such organizations often take advantage of states that lack the legitimacy or capacity to administer their own territory effectively, launching a mix of political and armed operations that, over time, give them coercive control over local populations.	这些组织常常利用国家缺乏合法性或能力有效管理领土的空子，政治和武装行动双管齐下，假以时日，它们可以牢牢控制当地人口。


The result is what General Sir Rupert Smith, a former British commander in Northern Ireland and the Balkans, called “war among the people” – a kind of struggle that is rarely decided on conventional battlefields by traditional armies.	结果是前英国驻北爱尔兰和巴尔干地区司令官史密斯爵士将军（General Sir Rupert Smith）所谓的“人民之间的战争”——不再由传统军队在常规战场上进行���战斗。


These hybrid wars are fought using a wide variety of weapons – not all of which have firepower.	这些混合战争使用各种武器——不光光是火力。


With cameras in every cell phone and photo-editing software on every computer – not to mention the prevalence of social media – the information contest has become a critical aspect of modern warfare, exemplified in the current wars in Syria and Ukraine.	每部手机都能拍照，每部电脑都能修图——更不用说无处不在的各种社交媒体了——信息竞争早已成为现代战争的关键维度，目前的叙利亚和乌克兰战争就是明证。


In hybrid warfare, conventional and unconventional forces, combatants and civilians, physical destruction and information manipulation become thoroughly intertwined.	在混合战争中，传统和非传统力量、战士和平民、物理破坏和信息操纵之间互相交织。


In Lebanon in 2006, Hezbollah fought Israel through well-trained cells that combined propaganda, conventional military tactics, and rockets launched from densely populated civilian areas, achieving what many in the region considered a political victory.	在2006年的黎巴嫩，真主党通过结合了宣传、传统军事战术和从平民密集区发射火箭弹的训练有素的方针，实现了该地区许多人所谓的政治胜利。


More recently, Hamas and Israel have conducted air and land operations in the densely populated Gaza Strip.	更晚近一些，哈马斯和以色列在人口密集的加沙地带采取空中和地面行动。


This kind of warfare emerged largely in response to America’s overwhelming conventional military advantage after the Soviet Union’s collapse, underscored by its victory in the 1991 Iraq War, with only 148 American casualties, and its intervention in the 1999 conflict in Kosovo, in which no American lives were lost.	这类战争主要是应对苏联解体后美国的压倒性传统军事优势而生的。 1991年伊拉克战争和1999年干预科索沃冲突都是美国压倒性军事优势的写照。


In the face of this asymmetry, America’s opponents – both state and non-state actors – began to emphasize unconventional tactics.	1991年美军只损失了148人，而1999年没有美国无一人死亡。 面临如此实力不对称，美国的反对者——不管是国家还是非国家行动方——开始强调非传统战术。


In China, for example, military planners developed a strategy of “unrestricted warfare” that combines electronic, diplomatic, cyber, terrorist-proxy, economic, and propaganda tools to deceive and exhaust US systems.	比如，中国军事规划者发展出一种“超限战”战略，利用电子、外交、网络、恐怖主义代理、经济和宣传工具欺骗和疲惫美国的系统。


As one Chinese military official put it, “the first rule of unrestricted warfare is that there are no rules.”	一位中国军官曾说，“超限战的首要规则是没有规则。 ”


For their part, terrorist groups, recognizing that they cannot defeat a conventional military in a direct war, attempt to use governments’ own power against them.	恐怖组织明白他们无法在直接战争中打赢传统军队，因此尝试利用政府本身的力量对付它们。


With violent theatrics, Osama bin Laden outraged and provoked the US, driving it to overreact in ways that destroyed its credibility, weakened its alliances in the Muslim world, and ultimately exhausted its military – and, in a sense, its society.	本·拉登利用暴力事件激怒和挑衅美国，让美国行动过激以至于破坏自己的信誉，削弱美国的穆斯林世界盟友，最终疲惫其军队——某种程度上说，也疲惫其社会。


The Islamic State is now employing a similar strategy, mixing ruthless military operations with an incendiary social-media campaign, punctuated by photos and videos of brutal executions, including the beheading of US and other Western citizens.	伊斯兰国现在也在使用相似的战略，以残忍的军事行动与煽风点火的社交媒体攻势相结合，以残忍行刑的照片和视频——包括将美国和其他西方公民斩首的画面——为武器。


These efforts have mobilized the Islamic State’s enemies, while inspiring a growing number of discontented individuals and groups to self-recruit to its banner.	这些做法动员了伊斯兰国的敌人，同时也驱使越来越多的不满个人和群体自动找上门来加入其中。


The unpredictable evolution of warfare poses a serious challenge for defense planners.	无法预测的战争演化驱使给防务规划者带来了严峻挑战。


For some weak states, internal threats provide clear objectives.	对一些弱国来说，内部威胁提供了明确的目标。


The US, for its part, must balance continued support for its conventional military forces, which remain an important deterrent in Asia and Europe, with investment in a broad portfolio of alternative capabilities that conflicts in the Middle East require.	至于美国，它必须在继续支持其传统军事力量（仍然是对亚洲和欧洲的重要威慑）和投资于范围广泛的其他能力（中东冲突的必要要求）之间找到平衡。


At a time of unprecedented change, the US – and other major powers – must be ready for anything.	在这个前所未有的变革时代，美国——以及其他主要强国——必须为任何事情做好准备。


Taming India’s Elite	驯服印度精英


NEW DELHI – It has been more than a year and a half since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power on a promise to build a new India, one founded on a radical break with the past.	新德里—印度总理莫迪执政已经一年半多了。 当初他承诺建设一个新印度，一个与过去决裂的印度。


It is still too early to gauge the impact of his economic and foreign policies, but there is one area where his government is making palpable progress: taming India’s entrenched elite.	现在评估他的经济和外交政策的影响还为时过早，但有一个领域他的政府正在取得显而易见的进展：驯服印度根深蒂固的精英。


India has a population of 1.2 billion people, but it has long been dominated by a tiny elite: a couple of hundred extended families, totaling perhaps 4,000-5,000 people.	印度有12亿人，但长期以来一直由一小撮精英主宰：大约几百个大家族，总数在4,000—5,000人。


Many countries have powerful elites with outsize influence, but in India, dynastic elites control the top echelons in every sphere of public life: politics, business, the media, and even Bollywood.	许多国家都有影响力超群的强大精英，但在印度，世代相传的精英控制着公众生活方方面面的最顶层：政治、商业、媒体甚至宝莱坞莫不如此。


Many of these dynasties have roots that stretch back to the colonial era, implying at least seven decades of dominance.	这些“王朝”的根源可以追溯到殖民地时代，这意味着他们的主宰至少保持了七十年。


Every point of leverage – from government contracts and industrial licenses to national awards – is used to maintain this ecosystem of power.	一切可以动用的资源——从政府合同到行业许可和国家奖项——都被用来维持这一权力生态系统。


Over time, ties of patronage and marriage have fused these dynasties into a discernable class, concentrated in central New Delhi, with a few pockets in Mumbai and a small presence in other parts of the country.	随着时间的推移，庇护和婚姻关系让这些王朝组成了一个清晰可辨的阶级，他们集中在中央的新德里，在孟买有一些分支，在印度其他地区较少出现。


Exclusive English-language schools, holiday homes in Goa, and summers in London or Switzerland have given them a shared world-view.	专属的英语学校、果阿度假别业、在伦敦或瑞士避暑让他们有了共同的世界观。


Occasionally, new faces are admitted, but only if they do not interfere with the system’s perpetuation.	偶尔他们也接纳新面孔，但这些新人不能干扰系统的永久化。


Unsurprisingly, the result has been the creation of a class of people with a strong sense of entitlement, who react to even minor challenges by closing ranks.	毫不奇怪，结果是形成了一个权利意识强烈的阶级，他们对于接近阶级的哪怕是轻微的挑战也极为敏感。


They flaunt their power so often (usually with some variant of the phrase, “Do you not know who I am?”) that even those who do not “belong” sometimes use similar lines to try to bluff their way out of trouble.	他们时常炫耀权力（通常是提出“你知道我是谁吗？ ”之类的问题），以至于一些并不“属于”的人有时也用类似的言辞虚张声势，摆脱麻烦。


One of Modi’s more symbolic blows to the old establishment has been his government’s success in evicting high-status squatters from hundreds of government bungalows in central Delhi.	莫迪的一个打击旧势力的象征性举动是其政府成功地将高等级“蹭住者”从数百家中央德里的政府公屋中驱逐。


Few of the occupants of these sprawling official residences had the right to live in them.	这些规模庞大的官邸的住户中几乎没有人有权利住在其中。


In some cases, they had been there for generations; when faced with eviction notices, some families argued that the bungalows had effectively become memorials to their famous ancestors and that they should thus be allowed to remain.	有的已经在官邸中住了好几代人； 在收到驱逐通知时，一些家族认为这些官邸事实上已经成为他们名人祖先的纪念所，因此应该允许他们住在其中。


An even more visible change is the sudden increase in criminal charges – ranging from corruption to sexual offenses – being filed against members of the old elite.	更加显眼的变化是针对旧精英成员的刑事指控的猛增，从腐败到性侵无所不包。


The homes of several senior civil servants have been raided recently as part of corruption investigations, and serious accusations of sexual harassment have been leveled against India’s top environmentalist, Rajendra Pachauri, who headed the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change when it received the Nobel Peace Prize.	一些高级公务人员住所最近遭遇搜查以调查腐败，印度顶级环保主义者、联合国气候变化政府间委员会主席拉詹德拉·帕奇奥里（Rajendra Pachauri）在获得诺贝尔和平奖的同时也收到了性骚扰重罪指控。


Meanwhile, banks have begun to demand repayment from large borrowers accustomed to having their loans rolled over.	与此同时，银行开始要求习惯于贷款展期的大借款人偿还贷款。


Vijay Mallya, a businessman famous for his colorful lifestyle and string of failed ventures, is being investigated as a willful defaulter.	以生活丰富多彩和创业屡败屡战闻名的商人维贾·玛尔雅（Vijay Mallya）遭遇故意违约调查。


Much of this would have been unthinkable until a few months ago.	这些案例中有许多在几个月前还是不可想象的。


And, inevitably, many accuse the government of carrying out political vendettas.	此外，不可避免地，许多人指责政府挑起政治仇恨。


On December 19, Sonia Gandhi, President of the Congress party, and her son, Rahul Gandhi, the party’s vice president, were forced to appear in court on corruption charges.	12月19日，国大党主席索尼娅·甘地（Sonia Gandhi）及其子、国大党副主席拉胡尔·甘地（Rahul Gandhi）被迫现身法庭出席腐败判决。


In response, their party’s MPs brought legislative activity to a halt for days.	国大党国会议员因此抵制立法活动多日。


The two were quickly released on bail.	两人很快就被保释。


The case against the Gandhis – as well as many other high-profile investigations – is likely to drag on for years.	针对甘地家族的案子——以及许多其他高规格调查——也许已经被搁置多年。


And, of course, in some cases the accused will be exonerated.	当然，在一些案子中，被告将获得平反。


But the very fact that members of the old elite can be investigated and questioned is undeniable progress in a country where they have long enjoyed impunity.	但旧精英成员也可能被调查和问询，这一事实在这个他们长期以来一直享受豁免待遇的国家已经是一个不可否认的进步了。


What remains to be seen is whether Modi is able to cement these gains.	我们仍需要观察莫迪能否巩固这些进步。


The elite can be remarkably resilient, retaining the power to strike back at the first sign of weakness.	精英的“韧性”非常强，在最初的弱势之后酝酿反击。


History – from post-revolutionary France to modern Thailand – has repeatedly shown that it is a mistake to write off the old establishment.	历史一再表明——从革命后的法国到现代泰国莫不如此——勾销旧制度是一个错误。


Markets’ Federal Reserve Love Story	市场的美联储爱情故事


LAGUNA BEACH – The morning drive to my 11-year old daughter’s school is always fun, and often a source of insight.	拉古纳海滩——早晨开车送我11岁的女儿上学的过程总是充满乐趣，而且往往也对我很有启发。


That was certainly the case last week when she pointed out something about Frozen, the hugely popular Disney film, that had totally escaped me.	一个活生生的例子是上周我女儿关于广受欢迎的迪斯尼电影《冰雪奇缘》的观点完全出乎我的预料。


“It’s unusual,” she said, “to see a Disney movie in which they end up telling us not to marry someone we’ve just met.”	“这部电影挺不寻常”，她说，“迪斯尼居然有一部影片没告诉我们和刚刚见面的人结婚。 ”


Quite early on in the movie, Princess Anna meets Prince Hans at her sister Princess Elsa’s coronation ball.	电影一开始，安娜公主就在姐姐艾尔莎的加冕舞会上邂逅了汉斯王子。