In the first episode of A Touch of Sin, the local boss has become a private-plane-owning billionaire by stripping and selling all of his region’s collective assets.	在《天注定》第一幕中，当地老板通过剥离和出售其所在地区的集体资产成了拥有私人飞机的亿万富翁。


Everything in this new China – where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) still rules, but the ideas of Karl Marx are as dead as they are in Russia – is for sale, even the trappings of its Maoist past.	片中虽依然是中国共产党统治，但马克思主义思想却已像在俄国一样没有立足之地，这个新中国的一切，甚至就连毛泽东时代的标志性服饰都可以用来出售。


In one scene, we see prostitutes in a nightclub titillating overseas Chinese businessmen by parading up and down in sexy People’s Liberation Army uniforms.	在一幕场景中，我们看到一家夜总会的妓女为了挑逗中国的海外客商，身着性感的人民解放军军服走来走去。


The story of Leviathan focuses on the house built by a simple mechanic named Nikolay.	《利维坦》的故事主线是机械师尼古拉的房子。


He is robbed of his property by the corrupt mayor, who is paid by the Orthodox Church for the right to build a new church on Nikolay’s land.	他的房产被腐败的市长夺走，这位市长收受了东正教会的贿赂，批准教会在尼古拉的土地上新建一座教堂。


Nikolay is disposed of by having him framed for his wife’s murder and tried by a crooked court.	为了不让尼古拉碍手碍脚，他诬陷尼古拉谋杀了自己的妻子，并把他交给一家畸形的法院审理。


The importance of real estate in both films is no coincidence.	房地产在这两部影片中扮演重要角色不是偶然的。


Property, construction, and land are the common currencies of power in mafia societies – in China and Russia no less than in Sicily.	房地产、建筑和土地是强权黑手党社会的通行货币——这不仅适用于西西里，也适用于中国和俄罗斯。


One reason China has been transformed into a gigantic building site, with huge new cities emerging almost overnight, is that this drives a red-hot and highly corrupt economy, ruled by a Leninist party that has monetized political power by asset-stripping and construction.	中国转型为巨大的建筑工地、新兴城市几乎在一夜间崛起的原因之一就是这推动了列宁主义政党统治下炙热的高度腐败经济，统治者通过资产剥离和建设实现了政权货币化的目的。


It is irrelevant that President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party, unlike the CCP, makes no claim to any form of Marxist ideology.	弗拉基米尔·普京总统的统一俄罗斯党并未像中共那样宣扬任何形式的马克思主义意识形态根本没有关系。


The way both governments operate is quite similar: party bosses, tycoons, and corrupt bureaucrats divide the spoils, while promoting chauvinism and “traditional values” – whether those of the Orthodox Church or Confucianism.	两国政府的运作方式非常相似：政党老板、富豪和分赃的腐败份子，宣扬“传统价值观”（无论是东正教还是儒学） 和沙文主义。


Judges are bought or intimidated to ensure that bosses remain above the law.	法官遭到收买或恐吓以确保老板们能够高高凌驾于法律。


Putin’s party was elected in Russia, as was President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party in Turkey, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s military regime in Egypt.	普京的政党在俄大选中当选，这与土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的正义与发展党、匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托的青年民主联盟和埃及总统阿卜杜勒 - 法塔赫·塞西的军事政权非常相似。


The CCP was not.	但中国共产党却并非如此。


But this, too, is largely irrelevant.	但这也基本没有关系。


What these governments share is the fusion of capitalist enterprise and political authoritarianism.	上述政府的共同点是把资本主义企业和政治威权融合在一起。


This political model is now seen as a serious rival to American-style liberal democracy, and perhaps it is.	这种政治模式现在被视作美国式自由民主的强劲对手，或许事实也的确如此。


But during the Cold War, authoritarian capitalism, usually under military regimes, was anti-Communist and very much on America’s side.	但是在冷战时期，专制资本主义，往往是在军事政权领导下，通常积极反共并与美国站在一起。


South Korea’s strongman, Park Chung-hee, current President Park Geun-hye’s father, was in many ways a pioneer of the type of society that we now see in China and Russia.	韩国强人、现任总统朴槿惠的父亲朴正熙在多种意义上是我们现在在中国和俄罗斯所看���的类型社会的先驱。


So was Chile’s General Augusto Pinochet.	智利将军奥古斯托·皮诺切特也同样如此。


Because the dictatorships in America’s client states ended more or less when the Cold War did, and were replaced by liberal democracies, many were lulled into the comforting belief that liberal democracy and capitalism would naturally – even inevitably – come together everywhere.	因为冷战结束在某种意义上也结束了美国附庸国的独裁统治并代之以自由民主政权，很多人就天真地相信自由民主和资本主义会理所当然——甚至不可避免地——在所有地方走到一起。


Political freedom is good for business, and vice versa.	政治自由对企业有利，反过来也同样如此。


This great twentieth century myth has now been shattered.	这个不可一世的二十世纪神话现在已经被打得粉碎。


Orbán claimed earlier this year that liberal democracy was no longer a viable model.	欧尔班曾在年初声称自由民主不再是一种可行的模式。


He cited China and Russia as more successful countries, not for ideological reasons, but because he thinks that they are more competitive in today’s world.	他认为中国和俄罗斯更为成功，这并非出于意识形态，而是欧尔班认为它们在当今世界更具竞争力。


There are reasons to doubt this, of course.	当然有理由对此表示质疑。


The Russian economy is far too dependent on oil and other natural resources, and the legitimacy of China’s one-party system could collapse quickly in an economic crisis.	俄国经济过分依赖石油和其他自然资源，而中国一党体制的合法性可能会在经济危机中迅速解体。


The way that illiberal regimes use the law for their own ends will not inspire the confidence of investors, either – at least not in the long run.	非自由政权出于自身目的利用法律的事实无法激起投资者的信心——至少从长远来看理应如此。


And yet, for now, the societies depicted so acidly in Leviathan and A Touch of Sin continue to look good in the eyes of many people who are disillusioned with Europe’s economic stagnation and America’s political dysfunction.	但就目前而言，在《利维坦》和《天注定》中被如此尖刻嘲讽的社会仍然在许多对欧洲经济停滞和美国政治混乱倍感失望的人眼中充满吸引力。


Western businessmen, artists, architects, and others who need large amounts of money for expensive projects enjoy working with authoritarian regimes that “get things done.”	西方商人、艺术家、建筑师和其他需要大资金建设昂贵项目的人喜欢与能“把事情做好”的独裁政权合作。


Illiberal thinkers on the far right and left admire strongmen who stand up to America.	极左和极右两翼的专制思想家对敢于与美国为敌的强人充满敬意。


A Touch of Sin has been shown to great acclaim all over the world, but not in China.	《天注定》已经在世界各国上映并广受好评，但唯独在中国不是。


Leviathan, by contrast, has been submitted as the official Russian entry for the Oscars.	相比之下，《利维坦》已正式代表俄罗斯参与对奥斯卡奖的角逐。


Perhaps China’s rulers are less sure of themselves than Putin.	也许中国统治者不像普京那样对自己充满信心。


Or perhaps Putin is just a bit cannier.	又或者普京只是更加精明狡诈而已。


His followers in Russia are unlikely to see, let alone be influenced by, an art film, and this sliver of Russian free expression might just persuade foreigners that there is still some liberalism left in Putin’s authoritarian democracy – at least until that, too, ends up as a shattered illusion.	他在俄国的追随者不太可能看到这部艺术电影，更不用说受其影响，而这层俄罗斯言论自由的镀金或许只会说服外国人普京的独裁民主——至少在成为支离破碎的幻觉之前依然残存着少许自由主义。


Automatic Savers	自动储蓄


People are fascinated by wealth.	财富让人入迷。


They enjoy watching the wealthy, savoring the thought of their fine homes, luxurious vacations, fancy cars, and gourmet dining.	人们喜欢看富有之人，心里想着他们的豪宅、豪华度假、精致汽车以及美食。


But if you infer from this that people spend a lot of time planning the lifetime accumulation of their own wealth, you would be wrong.	但是如果你从这一点得出结论说人们花大量时间对自己财富的终生积累做出规划，那么你就错了。


Most people do not seem to think very hard about how much to save from their income, or about how big the differences in their wealth could be in their later years if they just adjusted their saving rate today.	大多数人好像并不认真思考他们应该从收入中拿出多少用于储蓄，或者如果他们仅仅是现在调整储蓄水平，他们老来财富的差别可以有多大。


Most people just pay off their mortgage, make the mandatory contributions to their state or private pension (if they have one), and keep some money for short-run contingencies.	大多数人仅仅是偿还房屋按揭贷款，交纳法定的国家或者私人养老金(如果他们有的话)，再有存一些钱用于不时之需。


That’s about it.	大体就是如此。


The economist Frank Ramsey, in a famous article published in 1928, said that people have a “weakness of the imagination” about how their actions today affect their own future.	经济学家拉姆茨在其1928年发表的一篇著名文章中说到，人们对于他们今天的行为如何影响其自身的未来“缺乏想像”。


He said that if people thought about it correctly, they might well conclude that they should save half their income.	他说，如果人们正确考虑这一问题，他们就会得出结论说他们应当把收入的一半用于储蓄。


That way, the accumulated wealth might make them very happy in their later years.	这样，积累下来的财富会让他们老来十分幸福。


But, mostly, they don’t even think about that possibility.	但是，在大多数情况下，他们甚至根本就不考虑这一可能性。


Richard Thaler, a contemporary economist, spoke in 1980 of an “endowment effect.”	当代经济学家泰勒在1980年谈到“基金效应”。


Even though people may admire other things, they act as if they are mostly happy enough with whatever they already have, and lack the will to consider real change.	即使人们可能崇尚其他东西，但是他们做起事来好像是安于现状，并且缺乏考虑真正改变的意志。


One of the biggest challenges governments face is humans’ apathy about future saving.	各国政府面对的最大的挑战之一就是人们对于未来储蓄无动于衷。


Thoughtful leaders recognize that the problem is there and tangible, not to be ignored.	深谋远虑的政治人物认识到这一问题确实存在，无法忽略。


Yet it is hard to fit solutions into either a traditional liberal or traditional conservative political philosophy.	但是却难以把解决方案适用于传统的自由派或者传统保守派理念之中。


Since 1955, Singapore has taken a direct approach: a compulsory national saving plan, which generates very high saving rates.	从1955年以来，新加坡采取了直接措施，也就是强制性的全国储蓄计划，这一计划具有很高的储蓄利息。


The contribution rate for the Central Provident Fund is now 34.5% for people with higher incomes.	对于高收入人士，交纳中央节俭基金的比例达到34. 5%。


The United States has no compulsory saving plan, and it has an abysmally low – in fact, negative – personal saving rate.	美国没有强制性的储蓄计划，而且其个人储蓄水平极为低下，实际上是负数。


But the government is loath to consider a mandatory saving plan.	但是美国政府却不愿意考虑强制性储蓄计划。


Instead, it is taking steps to overcome the individual inertia that inhibits saving.	相反，它却采取措施克服阻碍储蓄的个人惰性。


The US Pension Protection Act of 2006 encourages employers to enroll employees automatically in a personal saving plan for old age.	美国2006年养老金保护法案鼓励雇主将雇员自动吸纳到老年个人储蓄计划之中。


This differs fundamentally from Singapore’s scheme, since employers are not required to do so, and, while enrolled employees’ paychecks are deducted without their consent, they can drop out of the plan at their own request.	这与新加坡的根本不同，因为并不要求雇主这样做。 参加计划的雇员的工资不经其同意就可以抵扣，他们可以自己要求退出计划。


New Zealand’s recent “KiwiSaver” plan and the United Kingdom’s Pensions Act of 2007 are similarly based on automatic enrollment for employees with free opt-out provisions.	新西兰最近退出的“维基储蓄”以及英国2007年的养老金法案同样也基于雇员自动参加，但有自由退出条款。


Nevertheless, according to Brigitte Madrian of Harvard University, automatic enrollment in savings plans is critically important, even if the employee is completely free to drop out.	但是，哈佛大学教授马德琳认为，即使雇员完全可以自由退出，自动参加储蓄计划也是极为重要的。


If employers tell their new employees that a pension saving plan is available, and even promise to match employees’ contributions, a significant fraction of employees still will not participate.	如果雇主告诉他们的雇员说现在有一项养老金储蓄计划，甚至保证也交纳和雇员同样多的钱，很大一部分雇员依旧不会参加。


But if employers actually enroll their employees automatically in the plan, telling them that they can drop out at any time simply by notifying the employer, a large majority of employees will just accept the plan.	但是如果雇主实际上自动把雇员吸纳进计划之中，告诉他们说他们只要通知雇主就可以随时退出，那么雇员的大多数就将会接受这一计划。


Moreover, it appears that whatever contribution rate the employer chooses tends to be accepted passively by the employee, as does whatever investment allocation (between stocks and bonds, for example) is established.	而且，无论雇主选择多少交纳数额，好像雇员会消极地接受，这就像接受确立的投资分配一样(比如股票和债券)。


The research of Madrian and her colleagues suggests that the new pension plans will improve saving in the countries that adopt them.	马德琳和她的同事们提出，新的养老金计划将会在得到采纳的国家提高储蓄。


Maybe these countries could do even better by adopting a compulsory saving plan, but they are not about to do so.	或许这些国家采纳强制性的储蓄计划将会更好，但是它们不会这样做。


So, although they won’t succeed in raising saving on the scale that Singapore has, they can make real progress.	所以，尽管它们无法把储蓄水平提高到新加坡那样的高度，但是它们还是可以取得实际的进展。


The best reason not to make savings plans compulsory is that different people face very different circumstances that only they know about.	不强制实行储蓄计划的最佳理由是，不同的人面对只有他们自己才清楚的不同情况。


Some people love their work, and never want to retire; for them, saving is less important.	有些人喜欢他们的工作，而且永远不想退休； 对于他们而言，储蓄并不如此重要。


Some people want to spend a lot now on education, or psychotherapy, or whatever else is important to them now, and so want to postpone saving until later.	有些人想要在教育、心理治疗或者任何对于他们现在是重要的事情上花大钱，所以就想推迟储蓄。


The fundamental problem is that while some people postpone saving for sensible reasons, and will resume saving later, many others fail to save for no good reason, and are unlikely to make up for it later.	根本问题是，尽管某些人出于合理的理由而推迟储蓄并在以后恢复储蓄，还有许多其他人没有什么好的理由而没有储蓄，而且也不大会将来补偿。


A government saving plan that is based on automatic, though not compulsory, enrollment has the ability to deal with this problem, if only imperfectly.	建立在自动而非强制性参加的政府储蓄计划可以处理这一问题，即使它不是尽善尽美。


Automatic enrollment creates a saving plan that is sensible for the typical person.	自动参加建立对于普通人而言合理的储蓄计划。


People who are not paying attention and are just not active will simply remain in the plan, while those who want badly enough to opt out can do so by writing a letter.	没有留心也不积极的人可以随便留在计划之中，而那些确实想退出的人可以通过写封信就退出。


These saving plans show that there are methods other than outright compulsion to overcome human inertia.	这些储蓄计划标明，除了完全强制性的手段以外还有其他方法来克服人的惰性。


One hopes that, in the future, such plans will be adopted on a large enough scale that we can devise a variety of new programs that serve both inertial and active individuals well.	人们希望，将来会在足够大的规模上采纳这样的计划，如此我们就可以设计出众多新的项目，让懒惰和积极的人都各得其所。


Automation, Productivity, and Growth	自动化、生产率和增长


BERLIN – It seems obvious that if a business invests in automation, its workforce – though possibly reduced – will be more productive.	柏林—如果一家企业投资于自动化，那么这家企业的劳动力——尽管可能有所缩减——就会更具生产力，这似乎是不言自明的。


So why do the statistics tell a different story?	那么，为何统计数据显示并非如此？


In advanced economies, where plenty of sectors have both the money and the will to invest in automation, growth in productivity (measured by value added per employee or hours worked) has been low for at least 15 years.	在发达经济体，大量行业有资金也愿意投资于自动化，但生产率增长（用每员工或每工时所产生的增加值衡量）已经至少低迷了15年。


And, in the years since the 2008 global financial crisis, these countries’ overall economic growth has been meager, too – just 4% or less on average.	此外，自2008年全球金融危机以来，这些国家的总体经济增长也十分疲软——平均不超过4%。


One explanation is that the advanced economies had taken on too much debt and needed to deleverage, contributing to a pattern of public-sector underinvestment and depressing consumption and private investment as well.	一个解释是发达经济体背负了过多的债务，需要去杠杆，这导致了公共部门投资不足，也抑制了消费和私人投资。


But deleveraging is a temporary process, not one that limits growth indefinitely.	但去杠杆只是暂时的过程，而不会永远制约增长。


In the long term, overall economic growth depends on growth in the labor force and its productivity.	从长期看，总体经济增长取决于劳动力及其生产率的增长。


Hence the question on the minds of politicians and economists alike: Is the productivity slowdown a permanent condition and constraint on growth, or is it a transitional phenomenon?	政客和经济学家所想的问题也是如此：生产率减速是一个持久性条件和增长的约束，还只是一个过渡现象？


There is no easy answer – not least because of the wide range of factors contributing to the trend.	这个问题没有简单的答案——因为决定这一趋势的因素范围甚广。


Beyond public-sector underinvestment, there is monetary policy, which, whatever its benefits and costs, has shifted corporate use of cash toward stock buy-backs, while real investment has remained subdued.	除了公共部门投资不足，还有货币政策——不管货币政策成本收益如何，它促使公司用现金进行股票回购，而实际投资依然萎靡。


Meanwhile, information technology and digital networks have automated a range of white- and blue-collar jobs.	与此同时，信息技术和数字网络让许多白领和蓝领工作实现了自动化。


One might have expected this transition, which reached its pivotal year in the United States in 2000, to cause unemployment (at least until the economy adjusted), accompanied by a rise in productivity.	你也许已经预料到了这一转型——对美国来说，2000年是这一转型关键的一年——导致了失业（至少在经济进行了调整之前是如此），并伴随生产率的提高。


But, in the years leading up to the 2008 crisis, US data show that productivity trended downward; and, until the crisis, unemployment did not rise significantly.	但是，在2008年危机前几年，美国的数据显示生产率存在下降趋势； 并且，直到危机之前，失业并未大幅上升。


One explanation is that employment in the years before the crisis was being propped up by credit-fueled demand.	一个解释是，在危机前的几年中，就业因为信用刺激的需求而得到了支持。


Only when the credit bubble burst – triggering an abrupt adjustment, rather than the gradual adaptation of skills and human capital that would have occurred in more normal times – did millions of workers suddenly find themselves unemployed.	直到信用泡沫破裂——并引发了剧烈的调整而不是正常情况下的技能和人力资本逐渐调整——数百万工人突然发现自己丢掉了工作。


The implication is that the economic logic equating automation with increased productivity has not been invalidated; its proof has merely been delayed.	其影响是自动化等于生产率提高的经济逻辑并没有失效； 只是证明时间延迟了。


But there is more to the productivity conundrum than the 2008 crisis.	但生产率之谜并不只是在2008年危机后才出现。


In the two decades that preceded the crisis, the sector of the US economy that produces internationally tradable goods and services – one-third of overall output – failed to generate any increase in jobs, even though it was growing faster than the non-tradable sector in terms of value added.	在危机前的二十年中，美国经济中生产国际可贸易商品和服务（占总产出的三分之一）的部门没有增加任何就业岗位，即使用增加值衡量，其增长比不可贸易部门更快。


Most of the job losses in the tradable sector were in manufacturing industries, especially after the year 2000.	可贸易部门的就业岗位损失大部分发生在制造业，特别是2000年后。


Although some of the losses may have resulted from productivity gains from information technology and digitization, many occurred when companies shifted segments of their supply chains to other parts of the global economy, particularly China.	尽管一些损失是拜信息技术和数字化所带来的生产率进步所赐，但也有许多损失的原因是公司将供应链的细分部分转移到了全球经济的其他地方，特别是中国。


By contrast, the US non-tradable sector – two-thirds of the economy – recorded large increases in employment in the years before 2008.	相反，美国的不可贸易部门（占经济的三分之二）在2008年前的几年中增加了大量就业岗位。


However, these jobs – often in domestic services – usually generated lower value added than the manufacturing jobs that had disappeared.	但是，这些就业岗位（通常是国内服务业岗位）所带来的增加值往往低于消失的制造业岗位。


This is partly because the tradable sector was shifting toward employees with high levels of skill and education.	部分原因在于可贸易部门日渐向拥有高水平技能和教育程度的员工倾斜。


In that sense, productivity rose in the tradable sector, although structural shifts in the global economy were surely as important as employees becoming more efficient at doing the same things.	从这个角度讲，可贸易部门生产率有所提高，尽管其中全球经济的结构变化的重要性不亚于员工做同样工作的效率得到提高。


Unfortunately for advanced economies, the gains in per capita value added in the tradable sector were not large enough to overcome the effect of moving labor from manufacturing jobs to non-tradable service jobs (many of which existed only because of credit-fueled domestic demand in the halcyon days before 2008).	对发达经济体来说，不幸的是可贸易部门的人均增加值提升不足以抵消劳动力从制造业岗位转向不可贸易的服务业岗位（其中许多岗位能够存在的唯一原因是2008年前的繁荣日子里信用刺激内需大幅增长）所造成的影响。


Hence the muted overall productivity gains.	因此，总体生产率增长缓慢。


Meanwhile, as developing economies become richer, they, too, will invest in technology in order to cope with rising labor costs (a trend already evident in China).	与此同时，随着发展中国家逐渐变富，它们也会投资于技术以应对劳动力成本的提高（在中国，这一趋势已相当明显）。


As a result, the high-water mark for global productivity and GDP growth may have been reached.	结果，全球生产率和GDP增长的高峰也许已经到达了。


The organizing principle of global supply chains for most of the post-war period has been to move production toward low-cost pools of labor, because labor was and is the least mobile of economic factors (labor, capital, and knowledge).	在战后的大部分时间里，全球供应链的组织原则一直是生产向低成本劳动力大军转移，因为劳动力曾是、现在也是流动性最差的经济因素（劳动力、资本和知识）。


That will remain true for high-value-added services that defy automation.	不容易自动化的高增加值服务业仍然如此。


But for capital-intensive digital technologies, the organizing principle will change: production will move toward final markets, which will increasingly be found not just in advanced countries, but also in emerging economies as their middle classes expand.	但对于资本密集型数字技术，这一组织原则将发生改变：生产将向最终市场转移，而最终市场将越来越多地不仅出现在发达国家，也出现在中产阶级不断扩大的新兴经济体。


Martin Baily and James Manyika recently pointed out that we have seen this movie before.	马丁·贝利（Martin Baily）和詹姆斯·曼尼卡（James Manyika）最近指出，我们早已经领教过了这一点。


In the 1980’s, Robert Solow and Stephen Roach separately argued that IT investment was showing no impact on productivity.	20世纪80年代，罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）和史蒂芬·罗奇（Stephen Roach）各自指出，IT投资没有表现出对生产率有什么影响。


Then the Internet became generally available, businesses reorganized themselves and their global supply chains, and productivity accelerated.	接着，互联网大行其道，企业重新组织了自身和供应链，而生产率也随之加速。


The dot-com bubble of the late 1990s was a misestimate of the timing, not the magnitude, of the digital revolution.	20世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫错在算错了数字革命的时间而不是程度。


Likewise, Manyika and Baily argue that the much-discussed “Internet of Things” is probably some years away from showing up in aggregate productivity data.	类似地，曼尼卡和贝利指出，人们热议的“物联网”也许需要再过多年才能体现在给总生产率数据中。


Organizations, businesses, and people all have to adapt to the technologically driven shifts in our economies’ structure.	组织、企业和人都必须适应技术推动的经济结构变化。


These transitions will be lengthy, rewarding some and forcing difficult adjustments on others, and their productivity effects will not appear in aggregate data for some time.	这些过渡将会很长，一些人将会得利，而另一些人被迫进行艰难的调整，它们的生产率效应需要相当时间才会体现在总数据中。


But those who move first are likely to benefit the most.	但最先行动的人可能获得最大的好处。


Avatar and Empire	《阿凡达》与美利坚帝国


NEW YORK – Do nations have psychological processes – even Freudian processes, such as collective egos that can be injured, and repressed guilt feelings that can well up from the collective unconscious – just as individuals do?	发自纽约 —— 国家是否也如同个人一样，拥有心理过程呢？ — 甚至是像弗洛伊德所描述的那种过程，诸如会受伤的集体意识，以及被压抑的、隐藏于集体无意识之中的负罪感？


I believe that they do.	我认为是有的。


I also believe that just as an individual’s dreams and slips of the tongue reveal his or her repressed knowledge, so a culture’s “dreamwork” – its films, pop music, visual arts, and even in the resonant jokes, cartoons and advertising images – reveal the signs of this collective unconscious.	而 我也相信，正如个人的梦境和说错话反映了他 / 她的潜意识一样，一种文化的“梦境” —— 电影，流行音乐，视觉艺术，甚至包括共同的笑话，卡通以及广告形象 —— 也会反映出某个集体的潜意识。


Moreover, a nation’s “irrational dreamwork” often reflects its actual condition more truthfully than its “ego” – its official pronouncements, diplomatic statements, and propaganda.	而一个国家的“非理性的梦境”通常比其“自我” —— 比如官方声明，外交宣言和各种宣传 —— 更能反映其现实情况。


So take this theory with you when you see James Cameron’s Avatar , and watch for two revealing themes: the raw, guilty template of the American unconscious in the context of the “war on terror” and late-stage corporate imperialism, and a critical portrayal of America – for the first time ever in a Hollywood blockbuster – from the point of view of the rest of the world.	因此，请带着这种理论来欣赏詹姆斯·卡梅隆所拍摄的电影《阿凡达》，并留意其中反映的两个主题：一是在“反恐战争”和后企业帝国主义语境下，美国集体潜意识的粗鄙，罪恶的样板，二是在世界其他国家眼中美国所扮演的批判性形象 —— 这在好莱坞大片中还是头一次出现。


In the Hollywood tradition, of course, the American hero fighting an indigenous enemy is innocent and moral, a reluctant warrior bringing democracy, or at least justice, to feral savages.	当然，在好莱坞电影的传统中，那些被迫与土著作战的美国英雄通常都是些纯洁无瑕，道德高尚的人，为未开化的野蛮人带来民主，或至少是正义。


In Avatar , the core themes highlight everything that has gone wrong with Americans’ view of themselves in relation to their country’s foreign policy.	但在《阿凡达》片中处处闪烁的核心主题却与美国人基于本国外交政策的自我认知背道而驰。


The hero, Jake Sully, is crippled from combat in a previous American conflict, but is not well cared for by his own country; if he does his job of genocide properly, “the corporation” will reward him with proper medical treatment.	剧中的英雄，杰克·苏利在此前一次为美国执行的战斗中残废了，但他的国家却并未因此给予其应有的照顾； 而如果他能够很好地完成交给他的种族大屠杀任务的话，那么“公司”就会好好奖励他一番，给予他所需的治疗。


He signs on, essentially, as a corporate contractor – shades of Blackwater’s massacre of civilians in Baghdad’s Nisour Square.	基本上，此人是以一位公司合同承包者的身份签约的 —— 这不禁使人联想起黑水公司在巴格达的尼苏尔广场对当地平民进行的大屠杀。


The enterprise is a “mission” in which the soldiers fight not “for freedom” but “for a paycheck.”	这间“公司”本身就是一个“任务”，而受雇于这间公司的士兵不是为了“自由”而战，而是为了“收入”而战。


They take their direction from corporate bureaucrats in waging war against the indigenous people, whose sacred land is sited on vast reserves of “unobtainium,” which the corporation wishes to secure at all costs.	他们遵从公司官僚对当地居民发动攻击的指示，而动机则是因为要不惜一切代价夺取蕴藏在当地居民的神圣土地下面 的珍稀矿物元素“ unobtainium ”。


The soldiers are portrayed as being manipulated by their leaders – through vicious racism and religious derision – into brutal action against the non-aggressive “hostiles.”	电影里，这些士兵被描述为是受他们的领导人 —— 这些人运用恶毒的种族主义和宗教嘲讽 —— 所指挥而对当地毫无侵略性的“敌人”展开无情的攻击。


When the villain, the American military leader of the attack, plans to bomb flat the indigenous people’s sacred tree, he boasts that he will blow such a massive hole in their “racial memory” that they won’t come “within a thousand clicks” of the place again.	当剧中作为反派的美国攻击部队领导人计划炸平当地人的森林时，他傲慢地说打算在这些人的“种族记忆”中炸出一个巨大的裂口，让这些人再也不敢靠近该地一千步的范围之内。


Even the machinery of US military combat is portrayed non-heroically.	甚至美国军队在该片的战争场面中所使用的武器也没有被描述为史诗般的壮观。


Instead of the classic images of the US Cavalry courageously sweeping down on the savages, or of decent American doughboys bravely clearing out nests of Nazis, bored technocrats, insulated by immense layers of technology, firebomb green valleys, slaughtering enemy warriors and defenseless women and babies while sipping coffee and casually fiddling with touch screens.	与美国骑兵勇敢地扫平野蛮的敌人，或整齐的美国步兵英勇地扫荡了法西斯老巢的传统形象不同，无聊的技术官僚，由庞大的防护层保护着，一边喝着咖啡，随意触按着显示屏，一边轰炸着绿色山谷，屠杀着敌人的战士和毫无防卫能力的妇女和小孩。


The characters’ lines (all quotes are approximate) are those that never pierce the bubble of American self-regard with respect to Iraq and Afghanistan.	而主角的台词（当中所有的引用都是恰如其分的）也仍是那些不会揭穿美国在关于伊拉克和阿富汗问题上的利己主义外表的套话。


“You should not be here!” exclaims the indigenous heroine, and eventual love interest, Neytiri, as if she is speaking of the entire US enterprise overseas.	剧中的土著女英雄，最终成为主角恋人的内特丽说“你本不该来！ ”，仿佛她在说这话时所面对的是所有的美国海外企业。


“You are like a baby.” Gesturing at the mayhem caused by the destructive but self-regarding hero, before he “goes native,” she says, “This is your fault.	“你就像个婴儿一样，”在指着由那位破坏巨大，但却自我感觉良好的英雄在“转向土著一方之前”所造成的严重伤害时，她说：“这都是你的错。


They should never have had to die.”	他们本不该死。 ”


Later, as Sully starts to become sympathetic towards those whom he has been sent to betray, he tells the bureaucrats: “If people are sitting on something you want, you call them the enemy.”	后来，随着苏利变得同情那些他本要背叛的人，他告诉公司的官僚说：“只是因为他们居住在你想要的东西上，你就要把他们当成敌人。


When he has fully identified himself with their cause, he joins a movement that is essentially a counterinsurgency, even a jihad (“Let’s show the Sky People [the US] whose land this is!”).	”当他完全明白了那些官僚的动机后，他转而加入了一场堪称是反抗进攻的行动中，那甚至可以称之为圣战。 （“让那些天空中的〔美国〕人看看这是谁的土地！


He and his small band of Americans are even locked in a small Guantánamo-style cell and called “traitors.”	”）。 他和他的美国小队被当成了“叛国者”并被关进了 关塔那摩式的小隔间里。


The indigenous people are an amalgam of echoes from all the great wars of empire that have troubled the recent American conscience.	剧中那些土著居民是最近美国深受困扰的集体意识对帝国所进行的所有伟大战争��反响的综合体。


Although they are physically a fantasy sci-fi mix of blue skin and cat-like movement, they are culturally a mix of Native Americans and Vietnamese, with Arabic accents thrown in.	尽管在形体上，他们是一种蓝色皮肤和猫科动物动作的科幻混合，但在文化上，他们却是美国本土人和越南人的综合，再加上一点阿拉伯口音。


They have qualities that Americans would do well to emulate.	那些人拥有一些美国人要好好学习的特质。


They respect their environment, whereas the Americans must “return to a dying planet,” because, as the indigenous people put it, “they have killed their own mother.”	他们尊重他们的生活环境，而美国人则必须“为一个濒死的星球承担起应有的责任”，因为，正如剧中的土著人所说，“他们亲手杀死了他们的母亲。 ”


Sully’s journey is not one of conquest but of awakening to his and his people’s true relationship to others: “What am I, the bad guy?” he laughs at first, as if that were impossible.	苏利的历程不是一次侵略的过程，而是对他以及他的同胞们与其他国家人民的关系的一次唤醒。 一开始，他笑着说“我是谁，是坏人吗？


In the end, however, he tries to warn his own imperialist team of the futility of their brutal approach: “What do we have to offer them?	”，仿佛在说着个天大的笑话。 但到了最后，他努力警告他所带领的帝国军队，他们所使用的暴行最终只会是徒劳的，他说：“我们究竟要给他们些什么？


Light beer?	啤酒？


Blue Jeans?	牛仔裤？


They will never leave the Hometree [their sacred land].	他们永远不会离开他们树上的家〔他们神圣的土地〕。


We have nothing that they want.”	我们没有他们想要的东西。 ”


Ironically, Avatar will probably do more to exhume Americans’ suppressed knowledge about the shallowness of their national mythology in the face of their oppressive presence in the rest of the world than any amount of editorializing, college courses, or even protest from outside America’s borders.	讽刺的是，电影《阿凡达》将比任何的社论，大学课程，甚至来自美国国外的抗议更能让美国认识到，在面对其在世界其他地区里压迫性存在的形象时，它所使用的国家神话是如此的肤浅。


But I am not complaining about this.	不过，我并不打算对此进行埋怨。


Hollywood is that powerful.	毕竟，好莱坞是多么的强大啊。


But, in the case of Avatar , the power of American filmmaking has for once been directed toward American self-knowledge rather than American escapism.	只是，在电影《阿凡达》这件事中，美国电影制作的力量首度指向了美国的自我认知，而不是逃避现实。


A Velvet Climate Revolution?	一场事关气候的“天鹅绒革命”？


BUDAPEST – In the discussions now underway in Copenhagen, the fate of Earth’s climate is at stake.	发自布达佩斯 —— 从哥本哈根当下的讨论中可以得知，我们这个地球的气候问题已经到了最危险的时候。


Although many of the participants recognize the urgency, the actions of many of them suggest that a business-as-usual approach will suffice.	而虽然许多参与者都意识到了问题的严重性，但他们的所作所为却似乎预示着一切照旧就行了。


But it will not.	然而这种方法是行不通的。


The world needs a decisive break with the past, and that break needs to start now.	这个世界需要与自己的过去来一场果断的决裂，而且这种决裂必须立刻启动。


Fortunately, we have recent precedents for changes that fundamentally alter the economic and political landscape – i.e., of revolutionary change undertaken peacefully and with enthusiastic popular support. The collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe 20 years ago, and the establishment of new democratic polities with market economies, was precisely such a decisive and positive rupture with the past.	幸运的是，我们已经有了一些彻底颠覆国家经济和政治图景的先例 —— 比如在和平的气氛和民众的激情支持下， 20 年前中东欧共产主义体制的崩溃以及新的民主政治和市场经济的建立，就堪称一个与过去决裂的，有正面效果的决定性事件。


Those regime changes required people to change not only their way of life, but also their habits of mind.	这种政权更替不仅要求人们改变自己的生活方式，同时也要对其思维方式加以革新。


The ecological revolution that the world demands today – a transition to a low-carbon global economy and a low-carbon way of daily life – will require a similarly comprehensive change.	而目前全世界所需要的生态革命 —— 向低碳经济和低碳生活方式的转变 —— 也需要这么一种综合性的变革。


Obviously, such a comparison has its limits.	很明显，这样来对两者进行比较有其局限性。


The regime change that took place in the communist world introduced a well-known model (or so we thought), whereas there is no existing model at hand for a low-carbon and yet efficient economy.	而当人们手中缺乏现成的模式来运作一个有效率的低碳经济时，共产主义阵营的政权更替就恰恰提供了这么一个人所共知的模式（至少在我们看来是这样的）。


In Central and Eastern Europe 20 years ago, comprehensive change demanded that all political and economic institutions be discarded, altered, or built anew; a complete change in society’s “hardware” was required. But the ecological revolution has less need for new institutions.	在


As we saw in the postcommunist world, changing attitudes is often the hardest problem of all.	正如我们在共产主义后期的世界所看到的那样，心态的变革通常是最困难的。


People quickly embraced formal democracy, but the tolerance and compromise that is at the heart of the democratic process took time to take root. And it is this very change in mindset that we most need today.	人们迅速接受了民主制度的形式，但忍让和妥协这些民主进程的核心价值则需要时间去培养，而我们今天最需要的正是这种发自内心深处的革命。


Yet, apart from the clear differences between the revolution of 1989 and the green revolution that is to come, there are striking similarities. First, a thoroughgoing alteration of highly complex systems will be needed to preserve the world’s climate, just as such root-and-branch changes were needed 20 years ago in the postcommunist countries.	然而


Second, the crisis of today must be managed in a peaceful manner, which was also our goal in 1989 – reflected in dissidents’ startling idea of regime change through negotiation.	其次，必须用一种平和的态度来处理今日的危机，这也是我们在 1989 年时的目标 —— 这在异见人士希望通过谈判协商来寻求政权更替的惊天构想中可见一斑。


Finally, today, too, comprehensive transformation is supposed to occur in a very short time, which 1989 taught us is eminently possible.	最后，今天的综合性变革将可能在很短时间内发生，这跟 1989 年的经验如出一辙。


The method of change that we followed then – and which I recommend now – precludes violence and minimizes costs.	当年我们所使用的变革方式 —— 我现在也推荐使用的 —— 摒弃了暴力并将社会付出的成本最小化。


The tool for achieving it was – and remains – agreement in advance on the fundamental goals of change and on a roadmap to guide the interested parties.	而实现这一点的工具则依然是达成协议，而且这个协议要抢在设立基本变革目标和指引利益攸关的各方的路线图之前拿出来。


The essence is that the decision to carry out fundamental change must be made (and clearly communicated to everyone involved!) at the outset.	其中不可或缺的一点就就是必须从一开始就做出实施根本性变革的决定（当然也需要与各方密切联系沟通！ ）。


The idea of “reforming” or adapting the old system without decisive change must be rejected before the process begins.	所谓“维新”或者在没有决定性变化的情况下改良旧体制的想法都必须在整个进程开始之前就彻底排除。


Hungary and Poland reached agreement on the rules for peaceful transformation through a series of negotiations between the ruling communist parties and the opposition organizations.	匈牙利和波兰两国的执政共产党和反对党都在和平演变之前通过一系列协商达成了协议。


This bears a similarity to climate conferences where countries – developed, emerging, or poor – sit down at the same table and try to reach agreement on a common goal: a fair model for reducing CO2 emissions.	这在气候会议上也能找到相似之处，发达国家，发展中国家和贫穷国家都在同一张桌子前坐下来，尝试为一个共同的目标 —— 某项削减二氧化碳排放的合理模式 —— 达成协议。


The people of Central and Eastern Europe simply wanted democracy and prosperity – but the elite had to be able to convince them to accept many unforeseen concurrent events, which was by no means easy.	当年中东欧的人民需要的仅仅是民主和繁荣 —— 但国家的精英们必须说服民众接受许多无法预料的伴生性事件，而做到这点是相当不容易的。


Similar acts of compromise on sustainability, measures to limit consumption, and to ensure equality will require the involvement of all stakeholders in order to gain their acceptance.	在可持续发展，缩减能源消耗以及确保平等方面的类似行动也需要有所有利益相关者的参与，并得到他们的认可。


This underlines the huge responsibility of those charged with guiding and managing these changes.	而这对于那些有志于领导并左右这些变革的人来说意味着巨大的责任。


Even though the transformation cannot be fully planned in advance, insisting on certain key points at the start is a basic requirement.	即使整场转变不可能在事先就完全计划好，但在一开始就坚持某些关键点是必须的。


One such requirement during the changes in 1989 concerned the creation of minimum institutions to guarantee the rule of law: free elections, civil liberty, and an independent judiciary.	1989 年演变的其中一个基本要求就是尽可能少地缩小体制以保证法治的建立：自由选举，公民自由以及独立的司法体系。


The factors forcing ecological regime change – climate, biodiversity, injustice – cannot be managed in isolation from one another.	而推动生态变革的各个因素 —— 比如气候，生物多样性，不公平性 —— 都不能被孤立地看待。


Nevertheless, a key component must have priority: reducing the effects of and adjusting to climate change.	尽管如此，一个关键的组成部分必须得到优先处理：那就是减少气候变化所造成的影响，并适应它。


Can We Feed the World?	我们能养活世界吗？


LONDON – In the 1960’s, the Green Revolution – which included the development of high-yielding crop varieties, the expansion of irrigation infrastructure, and the distribution of modern fertilizers and pesticides to developing-country farmers – bolstered agricultural production worldwide.	伦敦—20世纪60年代，绿色革命——包括开发高产庄家品种、扩大灌溉基础设施以及将现代肥料和杀虫剂推广到发展中国家——刺激了全球农业产品产量。


But chronic hunger remains pervasive, particularly in developing countries, which are affected most by crop shortages and food-price volatility.	但饥饿阴影依然挥之不去，其中影响最大的因素是短缺和粮食价格波动。


By 2050, the global human population is expected to exceed nine billion.	据预计，2050年全球人口将突破90亿。


Achieving food security means ensuring that all people have consistent, affordable access to the right nutrients, despite land and water limitations, climate change, and the growing prevalence of resource-intensive Western-style diets that accompany rising incomes.	获得食品安全意味着保证所有人都可以以负担得起的方式持续地获得合适的营养，不管土地和水资源的限制、气候变化和随着收入升高而逐渐流行的西方式资源密集型餐饮。


Surmounting these challenges will not be easy.	征服这些挑战绝不容易。


But, by taking concerted action to encourage innovation, strengthen market linkages, and support smallholder farmers and women, developing countries can build productive, stable, resilient, and equitable agricultural sectors, achieve sustainable economic growth, and guarantee food security for all.	但是，发展中国家可以通过协作鼓励创新、增强市场联系和支持小农和妇女建立高生产率、稳定、坚韧而平等的农业部门，实现可持续经济增长，保证所有人的粮食安全。


First, the public and private sectors must ramp up investment in research and development, as well as in the extension and adoption of effective, accessible, and affordable technologies – whether conventional, intermediate, or new platform – according to each country or region’s individual needs.	首先，公私部门必须增加研发投入，扩张和采用高效、易得、可负担的技术——不管是常规技术、中介技术还是新平台——满足各个国家和地区的具体需要。


Given that little suitable land remains unused, and that much of what is being farmed is increasingly degraded and eroded, investment in sustainable intensification (systems for increasing crop yields, while using fewer resources and minimizing environmental damage) is crucial.	由于未使用适宜土地已所剩无几，现有农地日益受到风化和流失，因此可持续集约化十分关键（即在提高庄稼产量的同时使用更少资源、最小化环境破坏）。


For example, conservation agriculture, which aims to reduce or eliminate the need for damaging and labor-intensive interventions like mechanical soil tillage, can increase yields while protecting vulnerable areas from erosion and improving soil fertility.	比如，保护性农业——旨在降低甚至消除破坏性和劳动密集性干涉，比如机械化耕作——可以在增加产量的同时保护脆弱土地免遭流失，并改善土壤肥力。


In Zambia, research conducted by local governments, in collaboration with the anti-poverty charity Concern Worldwide, found that new hybrid seeds produced roughly four to five tons of maize per hectare, compared to Africa’s average of one ton per hectare.	在赞比亚，当地政府与私人扶贫慈善组织关爱世界（Concern Worldwide）一起开发了新的杂交种子，可以使每公顷玉米产量达到四五吨，而非洲的平均公顷产量只有一吨。


Moreover, smallholder farmers – who are essential to productive, stable, resilient, and equitable agricultural development – should be given the needed tools and support to capture more benefits from value chains, while minimizing risk.	此外，小农——他们是高生产率、稳定、坚韧而平等的农业发展的关键——应该获得必要的工具和支持，从而在价值链中获得更多的好处，同时降低风险。


This requires building and maintaining fair and efficient input and output markets that connect them – as well as larger-scale farmers – physically and virtually to opportunities to increase their incomes.	这要求建立和维持公平、高效的投入和产出市场，让他们有机会和大农一样进入实体和虚拟市场，从而增加收入。


The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa has worked with governments, international organizations, charitable foundations, private industry, and farmers’ groups to train and support more than 5,000 agrodealers in eastern and western Africa as they open stores to sell key inputs in small, affordable quantities.	非洲绿色革命联盟（Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa）与政府、国际组织、慈善基金会、私人产业和农民团体合作培训和支持了东部和西部非洲的五千多农业经营商，他们已开始以可负担的小包装销售关键投入品。


As a result, farmers can travel shorter distances to acquire needed supplies.	结果，农民不再需要长途跋涉才能获得必需的供应。


In one area of Kenya, farmers who had to travel 17 kilometers to reach an agrodealer in 2004 had to travel only four kilometers three years later.	在肯尼亚某地区，2004年时农民需要走17公里才能找到农业经营商，而在3年后，只需要走4公里。


At the same time, smallholder farmers need easier access to markets to sell their crops for a fair price, rather than relying on expensive middlemen or inefficient government bodies.	与此同时，小农还需要进入市场以公平价格出售收成的便利，而不是坐等中间商和低效政府机构盘剥。


An alternative would be to establish some form of cooperative or contract-based farm association that can negotiate fair prices.	一种办法是建立某种形式的基于合同的农业合作组织去商谈公平价格。


Governments must also develop and implement policies aimed at ensuring that those who are typically marginalized from the formal food industry – women, young people, ethnic minorities, and non-landowners – have reliable access to adequate nutrition and opportunities to participate in agricultural production.	政府也必须开发和实施政策以保证通常被正式食品工业边缘化的群体——妇女、年轻人、少数族裔和无地者——有可靠的方法得到足够的营养和参与农业生产的机会。


As farmers, mothers, educators, and innovators, women provide a critical link between food production, consumption, and future progress on food security.	作为农民、母亲、教育者和创新者，妇女是粮食生产、消费和未来粮食安全之间的关键纽带。


Indeed, giving female farmers access to the same resources as their male counterparts could reduce the number of undernourished people worldwide by 100-150 million.	事实上，让女性农民得到与男性一样多的资源能减少全世界1—1. 5亿营养不良者。


Finally, political leaders must consistently pursue this agenda at the international, regional, national, and local levels.	最后，政治领袖必须在国际、地区、国家和地方层面不懈地最求这一日程。


To that end, they must honor their commitments – made through international institutions, such as the G-8, the G-20, and the African Union – to increasing investment in agricultural development and to combating global hunger.	为此他们必须信守在G8、G20和非盟等国际机构中许下的承诺，增加农业发展投资，击败全球饥饿。


Likewise, they must offer sustained support to ongoing national initiatives, thus encouraging further investment and cooperation.	类似地，他们必须为国家激励提供持续支持，从而鼓励进一步投资和合作。


John Kufuor, Ghana’s president from 2001 to 2009, exemplified such leadership, boosting investment in agricultural research, farmer education, and infrastructure projects, such as roads, warehouses, and cold storage.	2001—2009年在任的加纳总统库福尔（John Kufuor）堪称领导力的典范，他提振了在农业研究、农民教育和基础设施项目方面（如公路、仓库和冷库）的投资。


As a result, the proportion of people living in poverty fell from 51% in 1991-92 to 28.5% in 2005-06.	结果，加纳的贫困人口比例从1991—92年的51. 8%下降为2005—06年的28.


Over the last 25 years, Ghana’s agricultural sector has grown at an average annual rate of 5%.	5%。 在过去25年中，加纳农业部门平均年增长率高达5%。


Such experiences provide grounds for optimism.	加纳的经验让我们有了乐观的理由。


By investing in and spreading innovative technologies, strengthening market linkages, encouraging visionary leadership, and targeting those most in need – and thus with the most potential – we can feed the world.	通过投资和传播创新技术、增强市场联系、鼓励远见卓识的领导并将目标定位在最需要帮助（童儿也是最有潜力）的群体，我们就能养活全世界。


Less of an Ass	少一点混帐规定


PARIS – “If the law supposes that,” says Mr. Bumble in Oliver Twist, “the law is a ass – a idiot.”	巴黎——“如果法律做出这种假设”，《雾都孤儿》中的班布尔先生说，“那法律就是混蛋、白痴。


For decades, Britain’s libel laws had been living down to Mr. Bumble’s expectations.	”几十年来，英国的反诽谤法辜负了班布尔先生的期望。


But freedom of expression worldwide received a boost – and Britain’s reputation for commonsense was somewhat restored – in April, when Parliament adopted legislation revising the country’s libel law.	但今年四月议会通过立法修改反诽谤法推动世界言论自由有了长足的进步，而此举也在一定程度上恢复了英国人通情达理的名声。


Previously, corporations and individuals all over the world who claimed that they had been defamed – even if those suing or those who allegedly defamed them had little or no connection to the United Kingdom – would bring lawsuits for libel in the British courts.	之前，即便原告或涉嫌诽谤者和英国毫无瓜葛，世界各地自称受到诽谤的企业和个人也会向英国法院提起诽谤诉讼。


The practice was widely known as “libel tourism.”	人们普遍将这种做法称之为“诽谤游。 ”


Many plaintiffs who brought such lawsuits – Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, Arab princes, African dictators, and unscrupulous bosses – had little chance to prevail.	俄国乌克兰寡头、阿拉伯王子、非洲独裁者和无良老板等很多提起诉讼的原告鲜有机会能够占得上风。


But the point was not to win.	但他们的目的并非是官司的输赢。


Often, their targets had much fewer resources, which meant that a libel suit requiring both sides to spend substantial amounts could be effective in silencing critics even if it did not succeed.	他们的起诉对象往往并不那么多金，而这意味着即使打不赢官司，要求双方大笔砸钱的诽谤诉讼也能让批评者不敢出声。


Within the United Kingdom itself, the law meant that many important issues could not be fully debated.	在英国国内，该法案导致很多重要问题都无法展开讨论。


The passage of libel reform is attributable to a campaign launched more than three years ago by three organizations: English PEN, a writers association; Index on Censorship, a bimonthly journal that has monitored censorship worldwide and published the works of censored writers for the past four decades; and Sense About Science, an organization that promotes scientific knowledge and understanding.	反诽谤法改革顺利通过得益于由作家协会性质的英国笔会； 四十年来监督各地审查行为并出版受审查作品的双月刊杂志《查禁目录》；


The targeting of scientific journals and scientists for exposing charlatans was a leading factor in generating public support for reform of the UK’s libel law.	以及宣传科学知识和科学意识的“科学智识”等三家机构在三年前共同发起的一项活动。 科学杂志和科学家对骗子有针对性的揭露是赢得公众对英国反诽谤法改革支持的最重要因素。


The cases involving science included a costly lawsuit against Nature, one of the world’s best-known and most widely respected scientific journals.	牵涉科技领域的官司包括起诉世界最著名也最受爱戴的《自然》杂志的一场耗资巨大的诉讼。


Nature had to contend with a libel suit for pointing out that a physics journal had published many articles by its editor, and that these articles had not been subjected to peer review.	《自然》杂志迫于无奈应诉这场反诽谤官司，指出某物理杂志编辑发表的多篇文章均未经同行审核。


Though Nature defended itself successfully, the suit cost it a lot of money and tied up many of its staff members for long periods.	尽管《自然》杂志最后成功辩护，但为这场官司耗费的人力物力却无法胜数。


Other libel suits involved unproven cancer therapies.	此外还有涉及未经证实的癌症疗法的诉讼。


The science case that probably played the most significant role in the campaign was a suit filed by the British Chiropractic Association against science writer Simon Singh for an article he published in The Guardian in 2008, in which he discussed “bogus treatments.”	英国整脊治疗协会因为2008年《卫报》发表的一篇探讨“伪疗法”的文章而对科普作家西蒙·辛格提出的诉讼在此次运动中起了最大的作用。


Singh won his case, but it cost him dearly in time and legal expenses.	辛格打赢了这场官司，但却付出了大量的时间和法律费用。


One of the cases that illustrated the kind of “tourism” encouraged by the law involved a suit by a Saudi businessman against an American author who said in her book that the businessman had provided financial support to Al Qaeda.	受法律鼓励“诽谤游”的代表官司之一是一名沙特商人起诉一名美国作家，该作家称这名沙特商人为基地组织提供经济援助。


Apparently, 23 copies of the book were sold in the United Kingdom. That provided a sufficient nexus for the British courts to accept jurisdiction.	该著作在英国仅售出23本，但已足以让英国法院接受管辖权诉讼。


Though the American author did not hire British counsel and did not try to defend herself in the UK, she was ordered to pay damages, arousing outrage in the United States.	这位未雇请英国律师在英国为自己辩护的美国作家仍被判支付赔偿金，并因此在美国触犯众怒。


The US Congress adopted legislation, signed by President Barack Obama, making such judgments unenforceable in American courts.	美国国会通过由奥巴马总统签署的立法，规定上述判决在美国法院无效。


The revised British law continues to place the burden of proof on the defense.	修订后的英国法律依然由被告承担举证责任。


But the standard that must be met has been changed.	不过却对必须满��的标准做出了改动。


The new law permits an author or publisher who is sued to invoke a “public interest” defense.	新法允许被指控作家或出版商援引“公共利益”为自己辩护。


Moreover, corporations, charities, and other institutions filing libel suits will now have to show that they suffered financial damage.	此外，企业、慈善组织和其他机构现在必须证明受到经济损失才可以提起诽谤诉讼。


Singh argues that this requirement by itself would have prevented the suit against him by the British Chiropractic Association from going forward.	辛格认为这一要求本身就可以阻止英国整脊协会对他提起诉讼。


And libel tourism will be drastically reduced by a new rule that excludes suits from outside the European Union if it cannot be shown that the UK is the most appropriate place to bring the case.	如果无法证明英国是提起诉讼的最佳地点，排除欧盟以外诉讼的新规则可以对诽谤游起到明显的抑制作用。


British law firms that have apparently made a lot of money representing libel plaintiffs from around the world impeded adoption of the new law through intense lobbying.	显而易见因代理全世界诽谤案原告而获利颇丰的英国律师事务所拼命游说阻止新法通过。


The scientists, writers, and anti-censorship activists who led the campaign were assisted in Parliament by Lord Lester, a well-known British civil liberties lawyer, who introduced a Private Members’ Bill in 2010, and eventually by endorsement of reform by all three major political parties.	领导这项运动的科学家、作家和反审查活动家得到了2010年推出无公职议员法案的知名英国公民自由律师莱斯特勋爵的帮助，并最终通过了三大主要政党的审核。


Nearly 400 years ago, in 1644, John Milton published his Areopagitica, an essay denouncing a measure in Parliament for licensing the press that was intended, among other things, to suppress libelous publications.	距今近400年前的1644年，约翰·弥尔顿发表了谴责议会审核抑制批评出版物的文章论出版自由。


That essay is widely regarded as the start of the worldwide movement for freedom of speech and the press.	人们普遍认为该文在全球范围内开创言论及出版自由的先河。


Last month’s victory by scientists, writers, and anti-censorship campaigners suggests that the movement launched by Milton still has life in his own country.	上个月科学家、作家和反审查活动家的胜利表明由米尔顿发起的这场运动仍然在他自己的祖国有着顽强的生命力。


A Vital and Enduring Alliance	一个至关重要经久不息的联盟


In recent years, many experts and commentators have said that the Atlantic Alliance would crumble or become irrelevant.	最近几年，许多专家和评论家都说，大西洋联盟濒临崩溃或将变得不再重要。


As a former ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), I can say from experience that such dire predictions are nothing new.	作为前美国驻北大西洋公约组织大使，我可以说，根据我的经验，这种可怕的预言没什么新鲜之处。


As America’s current Secretary of Defense, it is clear to me that the transatlantic partnership is as relevant and essential as ever.	作为现任美国国防部部长，我很清楚，跨大西洋的合作和以往一样必要且重要。


Consider the historic events that have taken place in the past year and the role played by the United States and Europe.	想想在过去几年中发生的那些历史性事件以及美国和欧洲所扮演的角色。


NATO added seven new members – nations eager to contribute to the Alliance in powerful ways.	北约新增了7个成员国——这些国家渴望着为北约注入新能量。


In Afghanistan, eight million voters, 40% of them women, chose their first democratically elected President in 5,000 years.	在阿富汗，八百万名投票者，其中40%是妇女，5000年来第一次民主地选举出他们的总统。


In the Palestinian Authority, a democratically elected president offers the hope of a new chance for peace.	在巴勒斯坦，一个由民主选举产生的总统给新的和平机会带来了希望。


In Ukraine, ordinary citizens demonstrated the depth of their commitment to free and fair elections.	在乌克兰，市民们通过游行示威表达他们对一个自由公正的选举的强烈意愿。


In Iraq, Saddam Hussein’s former subjects braved threats and voted for the first time with ballots that offered a choice of 70 political parties, rather than only one.	在伊拉克，曾在萨达姆·侯赛因统治下的人们不畏威胁，第一次为一场由70个政党平均享有机会而非一个政党独霸大权的选举投票。


Across the country, voters arrived on crutches and in donkey carts, passing by posters that threatened: “You vote, you die.”	全国各地的投票者们，路经着那些危言耸听地写着“投票者死”的海报，撑着拐杖、坐着毛驴拖车纷纷到达投票站点。


What a damaging blow to the extremists, whose ideology the voters so clearly rejected.	投票者们明确反对极端主义分子的意识形态的态度给极端主义分子一个毁灭性的打击。


While there have been differences over Iraq, such issues among longtime friends are not new.	当然，在伊拉克问题上存有不同看法，这种老朋友之间的争论也不是新鲜事情。


Consider just a few of the divisions that have come up among NATO allies over the past decades.	想想在过去几十年中北约联盟内部出现的一些分裂。


In the 1960’s, France decided to pull out of the NATO integrated command and asked NATO forces to leave its territory.	上世纪60年代，法国决定脱离北约的集体指挥并要求北约军队离开其领土。


In the 1980’s there was profound disagreement and controversy over President Ronald Reagan’s decision to deploy medium-range missiles in Europe.	在1980年代，由于美国总统罗纳德·里根决定要在欧洲部署中程导弹，而与欧洲产生深刻矛盾争执不休。


In fact, as NATO Ambassador in the 1970’s, I had to fly back to testify against legislation in the US Congress to withdraw America’s forces from Europe in the middle of the Cold War.	事实上，作为1970年代期间美国驻北约大使，我不得不在冷战中期飞回美国作证反对美国国会通过从欧洲撤回美国军队的议案。


Our Atlantic Alliance has navigated through some choppy seas over the years, but we have always been able to resolve the toughest issues.	我们的大西洋联盟在过去几年中已经穿越了许多波涛汹涌的海浪，但我们总能够化险为夷解决棘手问题。


That is because there is so much that unites us: common values, shared histories, and an abiding faith in democracy.	那是因为有太多的东西将我们紧紧连在一起：相同的价值观、共享的历史以及对于民主永恒的信念。


Today, we also share a common enemy.	今天，我们又共同面对一个敌人。


Extremists have targeted all civilized societies across the globe: in New York and Washington; Istanbul; Madrid; Beslan; Bali; and more.	极端主义分子已经瞄准全球的文明社会：在纽约和华盛顿；


They do not seek an armistice with the civilized world.	伊斯坦布尔； 马德里；


They will not negotiate a separate peace.	别斯兰； 巴厘等等。


They would like nothing better than for America and Europe to be at odds, rather than working together.	他们所要寻求的不是与文明世界的停战，他们也不愿意商讨一个分立和平。 他们最希望的就是美国和欧洲分歧重重，而不是协力而作。


The arrests of numerous terrorist suspects last month by French and German authorities made clear that no one nation can do the critical work necessary to win the struggle against extremists.	上个月法国与德国逮捕大量恐怖主义分子嫌疑犯的举动清楚地表明，单靠一个国家难以在反恐怖主义斗争中做到制胜的关键一步。


Often quietly, America and European nations are sharing intelligence, capturing terrorists, and disrupting their finances.	美国和欧洲通常悄悄共享情报、抓获恐怖分子以及捣毁他们的资金来源。


As a result, some three-quarters of known al-Qaeda leaders have been killed or captured, and others are on the run.	结果就是，四分之三的已知基地组织领导人被杀或被捕，其余的在逃。


Nor can any one nation stop the proliferation of dangerous weapons.	单靠一个国家也无法使任何一个国家停止生产危险武器。


This is why some 60 nations have joined the Proliferation Security Initiative in an effort to keep deadly weapons from dangerous regimes.	这就是为什么60多个国家加入了《防扩散安全倡议》，以防止恐怖政权拥有致命性武器。


In 2003, German, Italian, British, and American authorities confiscated nuclear equipment bound for Tripoli, leading to Libya’s decision to open its weapons inventories to inspectors.	2003年，德国、意大利、英国和美国政府没收了即将运往黎波利的核武器，此举导致了利比亚决定向联合国原子能机构特派员公开他们的武器清单。


Every NATO nation has personnel serving in the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, which just changed command from a French to a Turkish general.	每个北约国家都向驻扎阿富汗的国际安全援助部队派出人员，该部队的司令权刚从一名法国将军手中交到一位土耳其将军手中。


One of NATO’s newest members, Lithuania, is taking leadership of a Provincial Reconstruction Team – joining other European nations in contributing to Afghanistan’s stability and progress.	北约最新的成员，立陶宛，正带领着一支省区重建队伍——与其他欧洲国家一起，为阿富汗的稳定和进步作着贡献。


Indeed, more than half of all NATO nations have had forces in both Afghanistan and Iraq.	其实，一半以上的北约国家都在阿富汗和伊拉克部署了军力。


As the Iraqi people take more steps along the challenging road to democracy, more NATO countries have agreed to help train Iraqi security personnel by providing funds or equipment and by establishing a war college and military academies.	随着伊拉克人民渐渐走上一条颇具挑战性的民主之路，越来越多的北约国家已经同意通过资金或设备以及建立战争学院和国防大学来帮��伊拉克人训练安全部队。


Members of NATO share much more than an alliance; we are united by ties of blood and purpose, a heritage of liberty, and a calling to confront extremists’ violence – and defeat it.	北约各国共享的不仅仅是一个联盟：相同的血脉和目标、自由的传统以及直面极端主义分子暴力行为——并打败他们的呼喊声将我们联系在一起。


In the 60 years since World War II came to an end, we have counted on each other in times of peril and challenge.	自二战结束后60年来，我们在危机四伏、充满挑战的年代中相互依靠。


I am old enough to remember both the rise and fall of the Berlin Wall, and the ascent and collapse of Nazism, of Fascism, and of Soviet Communism. Together the members of NATO have helped to protect Kosovo and recently brought aid to the victims of a devastating tsunami.	我的年迈让我能够记得柏林墙的砌起和倒塌、纳粹、法西斯主义和苏联共产主义的崛起和土崩瓦解，以及北约成员国如何帮助保护科索沃以及最近为灾难性海啸中的难民带去的援助。


Great achievements are possible when the Atlantic community is united.	当大西洋共同体团结一心时，就能完成伟大之举。


That unity need not mean a uniformity of tactics or views, but rather a union of purpose.	这种团结不需要战术上或观点上的步调一致，而是目标上一致。


Those who cherish free political systems and free economic systems share similar hopes.	那些珍惜自由政治体系和自由经济体系的人们有着相同的希望。


Working together, those hopes can become realities for many more people.	只要共同协作，那些希望就会在更多的人的手中变成现实。


A Vote against Voting in Pakistan	投票反对巴基斯坦选举


ISLAMABAD -- As Pakistan gears up for its parliamentary election on February 18, many observers hope that the vote will usher in a period of stability and calm by lending popular legitimacy to the government.	伊斯兰堡--当巴基斯坦准备2月18日的议会选举之际，许多观察家希望这一次投票将会通过给予政府合法性而迎来平稳的时期。


But sometimes democracy is best served by refusing to participate.	但是有时最好通过拒绝参与来帮助民主。


The upcoming election, to be held under the illegal Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) implemented following President Pervez Musharraf’s state of emergency on November 3, is such a case, which is why my party and its coalition partners are boycotting the vote.	即将到来的选举将根据11月3日穆沙拉夫总统宣布紧急状态颁布的非法临时宪法令而举行，这就是这样一个实例。 这就是为何我的党派及其联合夥伴们将会抵制投票。


To be sure, contesting the election would provide my party with a great opportunity to take issues to the people.	的确，积极投入选举将会给我的政党一个很好的让民众参与有关问题的机会。


In fact, my party’s support has been growing, with opinion polls now indicating that it is the second most popular in the frontier province – and gaining ground in every other province.	实际上，我的政党的支持率一直在上升，民意调查现在显示它是前线省份第二最受欢迎的政党，并且在其他每一个省份都获得越来越多的支持。


But elections by themselves don’t bring democracy.	但是选举本身并不会带来民主。


Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, loves elections.	津巴布韦总统穆加贝喜爱选举。


Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has been holding elections for 27 years.	埃及总统穆巴拉克举行选举已经27年了。


Uzbekistan’s Islam Karimov has been in power for 30 years, and has just been “elected” to a fresh seven-year presidential term.	乌兹别克斯坦的卡里莫夫当权已经30年，最近再一次“当选”担任总统七年。


Elections are meaningful only if they are perceived to be free and fair, which requires independent referees.	只有人们感觉到选举是自由和公正的时候它们才有意义，而这就要求独立的裁判。


When my party started eleven years ago, we called ourselves the Movement For Justice.	我的政党七年前成立的时候，我们自称为正义运动。


We demanded an independent judiciary, because we believed that democracy and prosperity are impossible without the rule of law, and that the rule of law requires a judiciary that can act as a constraint on the government.	我们要求司法独立，因为我们相信没有法治民主和繁荣是不可能的，而法治则要求具有限制政府的司法机制。


Having gone to university in western countries, we were inspired by the American system of check and balances.	我们曾经在西方国家大学里留学，受到美国制衡制度的启发。


So it is a shock to us that the US State Department keeps talking about free and fair elections and abolishing the state of emergency, but without mentioning the reinstatement of the judges – including the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court – that Musharraf illegally dismissed.	因此，美国国务院一直谈论自由和公正的选举并且废除紧急状态而不谈及恢复被穆沙拉夫非法解职的法官、包括最高法院首席法官的职务，我们深感惊讶。


If the judges are not reinstated, how can there be free and fair elections?	如果法官不能恢复原职，怎样才会有自由和公正的选举？


Who decides what is free and fair?	谁决定什么是自由和公正的呢？


Musharraf?	是穆沙拉夫吗？


This is where the battle lines are now drawn, and where the future of the country will be decided.	这就是斗争要点，也是决定国家未来的地方。


If the Chief Justice and the judges are reinstated, we can move toward a genuine democratic system.	如果恢复首席法官和其他法官的职务，我们就可以朝向真正的民主制度迈进。


But if Musharraf manages to get his own PCO judges established in the country, then we will head toward a period of turmoil.	但是如果穆沙拉夫把自己临时宪法令的法官安插在国家之中，那么我们就会走向动荡时期。


After all, how can the party of a man who has less than 5% support win the election now without rigging it?	毕竟，一个只有5%支持率的政党在不舞弊的情况下现在如何赢得选举呢？


Unfortunately, most of the political parties have failed to stand up for the democratic process.	不幸的是，大多数政党没有坚持民主进程。


Major parties like the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) have decided to participate, following the lead of the late Benazir Bhutto’s People’s Party.	在已故布托的人民当决定参选后，像谢里夫的巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟等主要党派已经决定参选。


And, of all the major parties that are contesting the election, only the PMLN is demanding the reinstatement of the judges.	而且，所有参选的主要党派中只有穆斯林联盟要求恢复法官职务。


Fortunately, the people of Pakistan – students, opinion makers, and, above all, lawyers – are standing up for the judges, doing the work that should have been done by political parties.	所幸的是，包括学生、主导民意者以及最主要的是律师在内的巴基斯坦人民挺身支持法官，他们在做本来应该由政党来做的工作。


We see lawyers marching, getting beaten up, filling the jails, and yet remaining resolute.	我们看到律师游行，被殴打，投入监狱但是依然坚定不移。


They are suffering huge financial losses by boycotting the courts, and yet they are determined that the Chief Justice must be reinstated.	他们抵制出庭而遭受了巨大的经济损失，但是他们却决心首席法官一定要恢复原职。


So the dividing line in Pakistan is not between liberals and extremists, but between those who support the status quo and those who oppose it.	所以，巴基斯坦的分歧并不在自由派和极端派者之间，而是在那些支持现状和反对现状的人之间。


Parties that call themselves democratic are not only going along with Musharraf in this fraudulent election, but are also helping to restore the status quo.	自称为民主的政党不仅仅是在这一舞弊的选举中与穆沙拉夫合作，而且还在帮助恢复现状。


The solution to dysfunctional democracy is not military dictatorship, but more democracy.	解决运转不良的民主的办法并非是军事独裁，而是更多的民主。


Pakistanis understand democracy, because we have a democratic culture.	巴基斯坦人理解民主，因为我们具有民主的文化。


Our founder was a great constitutionalist, and Pakistan came into being through the vote.	我们的建国者是一个伟大的宪法派人士，而且巴基斯坦是通过投票成立的。


The problem has been that because we have lacked an independent judiciary, we have not had an independent election commission.	问题是，因为我们缺乏司法独立，我们一直没有独立的选举委员会。


So all our elections, except for one in 1970, have been rigged.	所以除了1970年的那次，我们所有的选举都是舞弊的。


India, with which Pakistan shares a similar background, went through 40 years of dysfunctional democracy with a one-party system.	印度和巴基斯坦具有类似的背景，经历了40年一党专制的运转不良的民主。


But in the last 16 years it has begun to reap the fruits of genuine democratic competition, because an independent judiciary and electoral commission gives people confidence that their vote can make a difference.	但是在过去16年里，它开始收获真正民主竞争的果实，因为独立司法和选举委员会给予人民信心，也就是他们的选票可以有所作为。


Until we have the same in Pakistan, no election can be free and fair.	在我们巴基斯坦有同样的司法独立前，选举是不会自由和公正的。


For two and a half years, I supported Musharraf and believed his promises to bring genuine democracy to Pakistan.	过去两年半以来，我支持穆沙拉夫并且相信他把真正的民主带入巴基斯坦的诺言。


I’ve learned my lesson about Musharraf.	我已经看透了穆沙拉夫。


But, more importantly, no military dictator can succeed where Musharraf has so clearly failed.	但是更为重要的是，没有一个军事独裁者可以在穆沙拉夫失败的地方成功。


Winston Churchill once said, “War is too serious a business for generals.”	丘吉尔曾说，战争事大，不应由由将军左右。


The same is true of democracy.	这对于民主而言也是如此。


Dethroning King Coal	废煤


MELBOURNE – Earlier this year, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 400 parts per million (ppm).	墨尔本—今年早些时候，大气中的二氧化碳浓度达到了百万分之400（ppm）。


The last time there was that much CO2 in our atmosphere was three million years ago, when sea levels were 24 meters higher than they are today.	大气二氧化碳浓度上一次达到如此高水平是在300万年前，当时的海平面比现在高24米。


Now sea levels are rising again.	如今，海平面正在再次上升。


Last September, Arctic sea ice covered the smallest area ever recorded.	去年9月，北冰洋冰盖面积创下了有记录以来新低。


All but one of the ten warmest years since 1880, when global records began to be kept, have occurred in the twenty-first century.	自1880年有全球记录以来，十个最热年份中的九个出现在21世纪。


Some climate scientists believe that 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere is already enough to take us past the tipping point at which we risk a climate catastrophe that will turn billions of people into refugees.	一些气象学家认为400 ppm的大气二氧化碳浓度已经超过了气候灾难触发点，数十亿人有成为难民的危险。


They say that we need to get the amount of atmospheric CO2 back down to 350 ppm.	他们说，我们需要让大气二氧化碳水平下降至350 ppm。


That figure lies behind the name taken by 350.org, a grassroots movement with volunteers in 188 countries trying to solve the problem of climate change.	这个数字被写入了草根运动350. org的名字，188个国家的志愿者参与了这个旨在解决气候变化问题的组织。


Other climate scientists are more optimistic: they argue that if we allow atmospheric CO2 to rise to 450 ppm, a level associated with a two-degree Celsius temperature rise, we have a 66.6% chance of avoiding catastrophe.	其他气候学家则更加乐观：他们指出，如果我们让大气二氧化碳上升至450 ppm，并由此带来2摄氏度的气温升高，我们仍有66. 6%的机会避免灾难。


That still leaves a one-in-three chance of catastrophe – worse odds than playing Russian roulette.	这意味着仍有三分之一的可能爆发灾难——比俄罗斯轮盘赌的风险还高。


And we are forecast to surpass 450 ppm by 2038.	据预计，我们将在2038年超过450 ppm。


One thing is clear: if we are not to be totally reckless with our planet’s climate, we cannot burn all the coal, oil, and natural gas that we have already located.	有一点是显而易见的：如果我们对地球气候并非不管不顾，就不能把我们已有的煤、石油和天然气都烧了。


About 80% of it – especially the coal, which emits the most CO2 when burned – will have to stay in the ground.	这些东西大约80%——特别是煤，它燃烧时释放的二氧化碳最多——必须呆在地里。


In June, US President Barack Obama told students at Georgetown University that he refused to condemn them and their children and grandchildren to “a planet that’s beyond fixing.”	6月份，美国总统奥巴马对乔治敦大学的学生说，他不会让他们和他们的子孙后代活在“无法修复的地球上”。


Saying that climate change cannot wait for Congress to overcome its “partisan gridlock,” he announced measures using his executive power to limit CO2 emissions, first from new fossil-fuel power plants, and then from existing ones.	他说气候变化无法等待国会克服其“党派僵局”，宣布将使用其行政权力采取限制二氧化碳排放的措施，首先是限制新造化石燃料发电厂，其次是限制已有发电厂。


Obama also called for an end to public financing of new coal plants overseas, unless they deploy carbon-capture technologies (which are not yet economically viable), or else there is, he said, “no other viable way for the poorest countries to generate electricity.”	奥巴马还呼吁停止给新建海外火电厂提供公共资金，除非采取脱碳技术（目前这项技术尚不具经济可行性），否则的话，他说，“最穷国家就没有其他办法发电了。 ”


According to Daniel Schrag, Director of Harvard University’s Center for the Environment and a member of a presidential science panel that has helped to advise Obama on climate change, “Politically, the White House is hesitant to say they’re having a war on coal.	哈佛大学环境中心主任、向奥巴马提供气候变化咨询的总统科学委员会成员施拉格（Daniel Schrag）指出：“政治上，白宫对向煤宣战还有所顾忌。


On the other hand, a war on coal is exactly what’s needed.”	另一方面，对煤宣战正是我们所需要的。 ”


Schrag is right.	施拉格说的没错。


His university, like mine and many others, has a plan to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions.	他的大学和我和其他很多人的大学一样，都有削减温室气体排放的计划。


Yet most of them, including Schrag’s and mine, continue to invest part of their multi-billion-dollar endowments in companies that extract and sell coal.	但这些大学，包括施拉格和我的大学，仍在把数十亿美元规模的捐赠基金的一部分投资于炼煤和卖煤的公司。


But pressure on educational institutions to stop investing in fossil fuels is beginning to build.	但像教育机构施压使其停止投资化石燃料的运动已经开始。


Student groups have formed on many campuses, and a handful of colleges and universities have already pledged to end their investment in fossil fuels.	许多学校都成立了学生团体，不少学院和大学已经承诺停止对化石燃料的投资。


Several US cities, including San Francisco and Seattle, have agreed to do the same.	旧金山和西雅图等美国城市也同意这样做。


Now financial institutions, too, are coming under fire for their involvement with fossil fuels.	如今，金融机构也在因为投资化石燃料而遭受口诛笔伐。


In June, I was part of a group of prominent Australians who signed an open letter to the heads of the country’s biggest banks asking them to stop lending to new fossil-fuel extraction projects, and to sell their stakes in companies engaged in such activities.	6月，我和一群澳大利亚名人签署了一份公开信，要求澳大利亚最大银行停止贷款给新的化石燃料提炼项目并卖出其所持有的参与这一行为的公司的股票。


Speaking at Harvard earlier this year, former US Vice President Al Gore praised a student group that was pushing the university to sell its investments in fossil-fuel companies, and compared their activities to the divestment campaign in the 1980’s that helped to end South Africa’s racist apartheid policy.	今年早些时候，前美国副总统戈尔在哈佛演讲时赞扬了一个学生团体，这个团体要求哈佛大学卖出其在化石燃料公司的投资。 戈尔将他们的行动与20世纪80年代撤除投资促使南非结束种族隔离政策的行动相提并论。


How fair is that comparison?	如此比较公平吗？


The dividing lines may be less sharp than they were with apartheid, but our continued high level of greenhouse-gas emissions protects the interests of one group of humans – mainly affluent people who are alive today – at the cost of others.	其分界线可能不如种族隔离政策清晰，但我们持续的高水平温室气体排放量保护的是一个群体的人口——活在世上的丰裕人口——的利益，而受害的是其他群体。


(Compared to most of the world’s population, even the American and Australian coal miners who would lose their jobs if the industry shut down are affluent.)	（与世界上大部分人口相比，即使美国和澳大利亚煤矿工人因为产业关闭而丢掉了工作，他们也属于丰裕人口。


Our behavior disregards most of the world’s poor, and everyone who will live on this planet in centuries to come.	）我们的行为完全没有顾及世界上大部分穷人以及今后几百年生活在地球上的所有人。


Worldwide, the poor leave a very small carbon footprint, but they will suffer the most from climate change.	放眼世界，穷人的碳排放最小，但受气候变化的影响最大。


Many live in hot places that are getting even hotter, and hundreds of millions of them are subsistence farmers who depend on rainfall to grow their crops.	许多生活在炎热地区的人需要忍受更热的天气，他们当中有数亿自耕农，仰仗雨水灌溉庄稼。


Rainfall patterns will vary, and the Asian monsoon will become less reliable.	降雨模式飘忽不定，而亚洲季风也变得越来越不可靠。


Those who live on this planet in future centuries will live in a hotter world, with higher sea levels, less arable land, and more extreme hurricanes, droughts, and floods.	未来几百年的地球居民将居住在更热的世界中，面临更高的海平面，更少的适耕土地和更极端的飓风、干旱和洪水。


In these circumstances, to develop new coal projects is unethical, and to invest in them is to be complicit in this unethical activity.	在如此环境下，开发新的煤炭项目是不道德的，而投资于这些项目不啻于这一不道德行为的共谋。


While this applies, to some extent, to all fossil fuels, the best way to begin to change our behavior is by reducing coal consumption.	这一道理在某种程度上可以推广到所有化石燃料，但开始改变我们行为的最佳方式是减少煤消费。


Replacing coal with natural gas does reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, even if natural gas itself is not sustainable in the long term.	用天然气代替煤确能降低碳排放，尽管从长期看天然气本身亦非可持续能源。


Right now, ending investment in the coal industry is the right thing to do.	眼下，不再投资于煤产业是正确的做法。


A War on Tolerance	对宽容的战争


AMSTERDAM -- When “tolerance” becomes a term of abuse in a place like the Netherlands, you know that something has gone seriously wrong.	阿姆斯特丹--当“宽容”成为像荷兰那样地方的一个滥用的名词时候，人们就会知道出现了大问题。


The Dutch always took pride in being the most tolerant people on earth.	荷兰人总是以作为地球上最为宽容的人而自豪。


In less feverish times than these, no one could possibly have taken exception to Queen Beatrix’s speech last Christmas, when she pleaded for tolerance and “respect for minorities.”	在平常的年份，没有人会反对女王贝娅特丽克丝去年圣诞节的讲话。 当时，她呼吁宽容并且“尊重少数人群”。


But Geert Wilders, leader of the right-wing, anti-Muslim Freedom Party, was so disgusted by the Dutch queen’s “multi-cultural rubbish” that he wanted her to be stripped of her constitutional role in the government.	但是，荷兰右翼反穆斯林的自由党领导人怀德对于荷兰女王的“多元文化废话”极为反感，乃至于他想剥夺女王在政府中的宪法地位。


Wilders, a popular rabble-rouser whose party occupies nine seats in the Dutch parliament, compares the Koran to Hitler’s Mein Kampf, wants to stop Muslims from moving to the Netherlands, and thunders that those who are already in the country should tear up half the Koran if they wish to stay.	怀德是一个受人追捧的蛊惑人心者，其领导的党派在荷兰议会中占据九个席位。 他把可兰经和希特勒的<<我的奋斗>>一书相提并论，想要禁止穆斯林移民到荷兰，并且叫嚣说那些已经在荷兰国内的穆斯林如果想要留下来的话就应该撕掉一半的可兰经。


Tolerance towards Islam is cowardly appeasement in his eyes.	在他的眼里，对伊斯兰的宽容就是绥靖。


He thinks that Europe is in peril of being “Islamized.”	他认为，欧洲有被“伊斯兰化”的危险。


“There will soon be more mosques than churches,” he says, if true Europeans don’t have the guts to stand up and save Western civilization.	他说，如果真正的欧洲人没有胆量站起来拯救西方文明的话，那么，“清真寺马上就要比教堂还要多了。 ”


Notwithstanding his call to ban the Koran, Wilders and his admirers claim to believe in unfettered free speech as a Western birthright.	尽管怀德呼吁禁止可兰经，但是他和他的崇拜者们却声称相信言论自由是西方世界与生俱来的一个权利。


Beatrix stated that the right to free speech does not automatically mean the right to offend.	贝娅特丽克丝女王声明，言论自由的权利并不自动意味着冒犯他人的权利。


Wilders disagrees.	怀德不同意。


No criticism of Islam, however offensive, should ever be hampered by political correctness.	他说，对于伊斯兰的批评无论有多么冒犯都不应当受到政治正确性的妨碍。


Wilders uses every opportunity to test Muslims’ (often very limited) tolerance.	怀德利用一切机会来检验穆斯林经常是很有限的宽容。


His latest provocation is a short film denouncing Islam, which is yet to be shown, but has already caused panic all around.	他最近的挑衅行为是一部抨击伊斯兰的电影短片。 这部电影还没有上演，但是已经在各地造成了恐慌。


Remarkably for a Dutch politician – and a minor one, at that – news of Wilders’s antics has reached the world press.	怀德古怪滑稽的动作在全世界得到了报导。 这对于一个没有什么资历的荷兰政坛人物是不同寻常的。


So Dutch embassies are bracing themselves for violent demonstrations, and the government is considering special security measures.	因此，荷兰在各国的大使馆正在准备暴力抗议，而政府则在考虑特殊的安全措施。


Some commentators suggest that Wilders, born and raised as a Catholic in a provincial Dutch town, is, like his Muslim enemies, a true believer, driven by the goal of keeping Europe “Judeo-Christian.”	有些评论家说，怀德是在荷兰的一个地方小镇出生长大的天主教徒。 他像他的穆斯林敌人一样也是一个虔诚的信徒，受到维持欧洲“犹太教和基督教”本质的目标的驱使。


Perhaps, but this is probably a red herring.	也许如此，但是这可能是混淆视听。


His war on Islam is also, and perhaps even mainly, a war on the cultural and political elites, the Dutch intellectual establishment, the Eurocrats of Brussels, and the liberal-minded queen.	他反对伊斯兰的战争也是、或许主要是对文化和政治精英、荷兰知识分子阶层、欧盟官僚以及持自由派观点的女王的战争。


Indeed, his speeches are studded with references to arrogant elites who are out of touch with the feelings of the common man.	确实，他的言论指向了对那些与普通人的感受脱节的傲慢精英们。


“Tolerance” is seen as weak and elitist, typical of people who live far removed from the harsh realities of the street, where violent and unruly foreigners menace upstanding Dutch folks.	“宽容”被视为软弱和充满精英色彩，是那些远离街头残酷现实的人常见的东西。 在那里，暴力和无法无天的外国人威胁到耿直的荷兰民众。


This notion of the elitist appeaser is not confined to the Netherlands.	这一精英式的绥靖者观点并不限于荷兰。


In Israel, the educated Jewish activists who criticize Israeli abuses against Palestinians, the peaceniks who believe that negotiation is better than violence and that even Arabs have rights, are called, with a knowing sneer, “beautiful souls.”	在以色列，批评以色列对巴勒斯坦人的镇压的受过良好教育的犹太活动份子，相信谈判要比暴力好、甚至阿拉伯人也有权利的反战份子被人讥笑地称为“美丽心灵”。


The common man, rooted in the real world, supposedly knows better: uncompromising toughness, the hard line, is the only way to get results.	扎根于现实世界的普通人理应更为清楚，那就是，毫不妥协的强硬路线是取得结果的唯一途径。


In the United States, the word “liberal,” in the mouths of populist radio hosts and right-wing politicians, has become almost synonymous with “effete East Coast snob” or, worse, “New York intellectual.”	在美国，从受到欢迎的电台主持人和右翼政治人物那里说出来的“自由”一词已经几乎和“精疲力尽的东岸小人”或者更糟的“纽约知识分子”同义了。


Liberals, in this view, are not only soft, but are somehow distinctly un-American.	根据这一观点，自由派不仅软弱，而且不知怎地明显非美国。


The association of elites with foreignness, tolerance, and metropolitan cities is nothing new.	把精英们和外国、宽容以及大都市联系起来并不是什么新鲜的东西。


Elites often can speak foreign languages, and big cities are traditionally more tolerant and open to mixed populations.	精英们经常说外语，而大城市对混居的人群通常更为宽容和开放。


Modern populism – American politicians running, or pretending to run, “against Washington,” or French populists speaking for “deep France” – is invariably hostile to capital cities.	美国的政坛人物反对或者假装反对首都华盛顿的权贵，或者法国民粹派呼吁“深度法国”。 以上两种现代民粹主义必定对首都或者大城市抱有敌意。


Brussels, the capital of the European Union, stands for everything populists, whether left or right, hate.	欧盟首都布鲁塞尔代表了不分左右的民粹派所憎恨的东西。


And Muslim immigrants live in Amsterdam, London, or Marseilles, not in the kind of small towns where right-wing populists find most of their support.	而穆斯林移民则居住在阿姆斯特丹、伦敦或者马赛，不是那种右翼民粹派拥有大多数支持的小城市里。


Still, the politics of resentment works best when it can tap into real fears.	然而，憎恨政治如果与现实恐惧结合就会有最佳效果。


There are reasons for people to feel anxious about economic globalization, pan-European bureaucracy, the huge and not always effectively controlled influx of immigrants, and the aggression of radical political Islam.	人们有理由对经济全球化、泛欧官僚、大量移民涌入管理不善以及极端政治伊斯兰的入侵感到焦虑。


These anxieties have too often been ignored.	而这些焦虑经常受到忽略。


There is a sense among many Europeans, not just in the Netherlands, that they have been abandoned in a fast-changing world, that multi-national corporations are more powerful than nation-states, that the urban rich and highly educated do fine and ordinary folks in the provinces languish, while democratically elected politicians are not only powerless, but have abjectly surrendered to these larger forces that threaten the common man.	不仅是荷兰人，而且许多欧洲人都有这样一种感觉，那就是它们在一个快速改变的世界中被抛弃了，跨国公司比民族国家更为强大，城市里的富人和受过良好教育的人日子过得不错而外省的普通百姓则艰难度日。 民选政治人物不仅庸庸碌碌，而且对那些威胁普通人的更为强大的势力低头。


Tolerance is seen as not just weak, but as a betrayal.	宽容不仅被视为软弱，而且也是背叛。


The Muslim threat is, of course, not a fantasy.	当然，穆斯林威胁并非一个幻影。


A small number of ideological extremists has inflicted real violence in the name of Islam, and will continue to do so.	一小部分意识形态极端主义份子已经以伊斯兰的名义制造了实际的暴力，而且将会继续如此。


But the popular resentment of Islam goes deeper and wider.	但是大众对于伊斯兰的憎恨更为深远。


Wilders, and others like him, are not just attacking Islamic extremists.	怀德以及像他那样的人并不仅仅是在攻击伊斯兰极端份子。


His success is based on that sense of tolerance as betrayal.	他的成功建立在宽容即为背叛的感觉之上。


And, as so often happens, the loathing of elites has found an outlet in the loathing of outsiders, who look different and whose ways are strange.	而且，正如经常发生的那样，对精英的厌恶已经在对局外人的厌恶上找到了发泄的地方。 那些局外人外表不一样而且行为方式古怪。


We must fight Islamic extremism, but not by tapping into the darkest gut feelings of the unthinking mob.	我们必须与伊斯兰极端主义作斗争，但是方式并不是利用没有头脑的乱众最为黑暗的冲动感觉。


Nothing good ever came from that.	这样做就不会有好结果。


A Warrant of Hypocrisy	虚伪的逮捕令


LONDON – Earlier this month, the International Criminal Court (ICC) upheld the request of the court’s chief prosecutor to issue an arrest warrant for Omar el-Bashir, the President of Sudan, charging him with war crimes and crimes against humanity.	伦敦—本月早些时候，国际刑事法院（ICC）支持本院的首席检察官的要求，向苏丹总统奥马尔·艾尔—巴希尔（音译，中文标准翻译是奥马尔·哈桑·艾哈迈德·巴希尔或奥马尔·巴希尔）发出逮捕令，指控他犯了战争罪和反人类罪。


Bashir responded by expelling foreign aid agencies looking after the refugee camps in Darfur.	巴希尔的回应是将在达尔富尔照管难民营事务的外国援助机构驱逐出境。


This is the first time that a sitting head of state has been indicted for war crimes, with reaction around the world mainly divided between those who hailed the move as a great step for international justice and those who condemned it as colonialism.	国家的现任领导人被指犯下了战争罪，这还是第一次。 全世界的反应主要分做两种：有些人欢呼这一举措是向着国际正义迈出的一大步，还有些人指责这是殖民主义。


Both positions are hopelessly buried in intellectual and moral fog.	而这两种立场都已经完全地陷入了智力和道德的迷雾。


The warrant was no leap forward.	逮捕令并不是向前的一大步。


From the legal point of view, it makes no difference whether the accused is a sitting or former head of state.	从法律的观点来看，被告是现任国家领导人还是卸任国家领导人并没有区别。


But it makes an enormous practical difference that an incumbent ruler can do a lot more future damage to his people than an ex-ruler, and therefore should be given no incentive to retaliate.	然而在实际中两种情况大不相同：在任的统治者将来能给他的人民造成的伤害要远比卸任统治者严重，因此不应该刺激在任统治者采取报复行为。


As a result of Bashir’s policies, 300,000 people are estimated to have died and 2.7 million displaced in Darfur.	巴希尔政策的后果之一，是造成达尔富尔地区估计有30万人死亡，270万人流离失所。


The expulsion of the aid agencies has put over a million Darfuris at risk of epidemics and starvation.	驱逐援助机构则使100万达尔富尔人身处流行病和饥饿的危险之中。


According to the statute that established the ICC, the prosecutor is required to ensure that any prosecution is in the interests of the victims as well as of justice.	根据国际刑事法院的建立规约，检察官需要确保起诉是基于被害者的利益并出于正义。


But, to lawyers like the ICC prosecutor, the abstract claims of justice are more vivid than any concrete duty of protection.	但是，对于国际刑事法院公诉人之类的律师们来说，抽象的正义要求比起任何具体的保护责任来更有吸引力。


In this case, justice comes with poisoned arrows.	在这样的情况下，正义是伴着毒箭到来的。


Emboldened by the warrant and its elusive suggestion of international support, the Darfuri rebels, the Justice and Equality Movement, have walked out of peace talks with Sudan’s government.	既然有逮捕令和它所暗示的国际支持来壮胆（虽然这种暗示难以捉摸），达尔富尔叛军“公正与平等运动”就已经停止了和苏丹政府的和平谈判。


Meanwhile, Bashir, with little to lose, will no doubt take the opportunity to attack his enemies.	与此同时，巴希尔也几乎毫发不伤，而且毫无疑问他将抓住这个机会攻击他的敌人。


The counter-argument is that the threat of indictment will deter rulers from wicked behavior.	反驳论据说威胁控告统治者将会阻止他们继续作恶。


But the law will deter only if its sanctions are credible.	但是法律只有在制裁可靠的情况下才能起到威慑作用。


A law that cannot be enforced deters no one.	一条无法执行的法律谁也吓不倒。


In fact, it weakens respect for law.	实际上它还削弱了对法律的尊敬。


Moreover, while the fear of being hauled off to The Hague may have	而且，对拖往海牙的恐惧之情可能会在威慑统治者方面发挥


Whatever the attractions of giving criminals “nowhere to hide, whatever the consequences,” the consequences cannot be ignored when the criminals are heads of state.	无论让犯罪分子“无处藏身，不管引发什么后果”听起来如何诱人，当犯罪分子是国家领导人的时候，我们不能忽略后果。


The policy of never negotiating with terrorists cannot be scaled up to state level when hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake.	在数百或数千条生命危在旦夕之时，不能把绝不和恐怖分子谈判的政策扩大到国家层面。


The charge of colonialism, meanwhile, is simply reflex: colonialism no longer exists.	与此同时，有关殖民主义的指责完全是不加思索，脱口而出：殖民主义已经不存在了。


The charge that international law is	指责国际法


In the Nuremberg trial of 1946, which laid the basis of current international law, the main charge against the Nazi leaders was that of “planning and waging aggressive war.”	1946年的纽伦堡审判奠定了当代国际法的基础。 当时针对纳粹领导人的主要指控是“策划和发动了侵略战争”。


Prohibition of war except for self-defense is embedded in the United Nations Charter.	《联合国宪章》禁止战争，自卫战争除外。


But the ICC’s creators deemed the waging of aggressive war – which the International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg called “the supreme international crime” – to be outside the court’s jurisdiction.	纽伦堡国际军事法庭将发动侵略战争列为“最严重的国际罪行”，但是国际刑事法院的创立者们认为，发动侵略战争在本庭的管辖之外。


This guaranteed legal immunity for the leaders who carried out the invasion of Iraq.	这就使得发动侵略伊拉克战争的领导者们不受法律���束。


The charge of selective application also applies to the Bashir warrant.	指责应用法律具有选择性同样也适用于发给巴希尔的逮捕令。


Bashir stands accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity.	巴希尔被控犯了战争罪和反人类罪。


The latter were first defined in the Nuremberg principles of 1950 to include murder, extermination, enslavement, deportation and “other inhumane acts.”	反人类罪最初在1950年的纽伦堡原则中被定义为包含了“谋杀、灭绝、奴役、驱逐出境”和“其他非人道行为”。


In 1998, these other acts were clarified to mean false imprisonment, torture, rape, persecution of a group, enforced disappearance of persons, and apartheid.	1998年，这些其他行为被清楚地界定为非法监禁、折磨、强奸和迫害一个团体，强迫人员失踪和种族隔离。


It comes as no surprise, then, to read in the	因此，在《阿拉伯新闻》上读到对巴希尔的逮捕令“散发着虚伪的气味”并不让人吃惊。 确实，布什和切尼的逮捕令在什么地方？


The answer is simple: where the interests of a UN Security Council member or one of their clients are at stake, the court’s jurisdiction ends.	答案很简单：只要联合国安理会成员国或是他们旗下某一国的利益面临危险，法庭的司法管辖权就终止了。


The ICC is like a cobweb: small flies get stuck, but wasps and hornets get through.	国际刑事法院就象一张蜘蛛网：小苍蝇被抓住了，胡蜂和大黄蜂破网而出。


Until the United States ratifies the ICC treaty, the Court is bound to seem to many to be little more than a politicized kangaroo court.	除非美国修改国际刑事法院的条约，很多人肯定会认为这个法院不过是个政治化的袋鼠法庭。


Without American support, it has little hope of earning legitimacy, let alone doing its job effectively.	而没有美国的支持，它就很难获得合法性，更别提有效完成工作了。


The Security Council has the power to defer the warrant for Bashir’s arrest for renewable periods of one year.	安理会有权将对巴希尔的逮捕令推迟一年，这种推迟还是可以延续的。


It can do this indefinitely, and it seems likely that it will.	它能无限期地推迟逮捕令， 而且似乎就要这样做。


The idea is that deferring the warrant will give the Security Council leverage over Sudan.	这一举动的含义是：推迟逮捕令将会赋予安理会对苏丹的影响力。


Gareth Evans, a former Australian Foreign Minister, has called it “a powerful diplomatic tool,” while the Washington Post has called for the warrant to be used “as a bargaining chip with Mr. Bashir and his Chinese and Arab allies.”	澳大利亚前外长加雷斯·埃文斯已经认为逮捕令是“强有力的外交工具”，《华盛顿邮报》则表示可以把逮捕令当成“和巴希尔先生以及他的中国和阿拉伯盟友讨价还价的筹码”来使用。


They believe that the threat of arrest can be used to force Bashir to mend his ways.	他们相信被捕的威胁可以用来迫使巴希尔改进他的方法。


If this proves true, the ICC and its sponsors have muddled justice with diplomacy.	如果证明的确如此，那么国际刑事法院及其发起者就已经把正义和外交混为一谈。


If the world can dispense justice only at the expense of the weak and to the advantage of the strong, it should stick to the older tools of crime prevention: force and negotiation, and leave justice out of it.	如果世界只能通过牺牲弱者，利于强者的方式来执行正义，它就该坚持使用更为古老的预防犯罪工具：强权和谈判，而把正义排除在外。


A Watershed Doctrine for America	美国应该采取“分水岭”主义


LOS ANGELES – As the United States stumbles through its economic challenges at home, the pressure of world events will not subside.	洛杉矶——只要美国一日不能安稳应对国内经济挑战，世界就一日不得太平。


But America’s ability to address them has changed.	但美国安内的能力已经发生了变化。


Its fiscal weakness limits its ability to act as global policeman.	财政疲软制约了美国作为全球警察的行动力。


Despite the relatively costless overthrow of the Qaddafi regime, America’s prolonged interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have severely strained the public’s tolerance for an active foreign policy.	尽管推翻卡扎菲政权几乎没有让美国破费一分钱，但长期干预阿富汗和伊拉克局势已经大大削弱了美国公众对积极外交政策的容忍度。


Nonetheless, the US seems destined to remain the world’s most important actor for the foreseeable future.	尽管如此，在可预见的未来，美国似乎仍然注定是全世界最重要的角色。


But today it is an actor without a script – it lacks a strategic guide comparable to the Cold War’s containment doctrine to prioritize policy.	但如今，美国成了没头的苍蝇，它缺乏一个类似于冷战时期“遏制”政策的战略优先事项指南。


Quite simply, the ad hoc policymaking that directed interventions in the Balkans, Somalia, southwest Asia, and the Middle East in the past two decades will not suffice in this new era of limitations.	显而易见，过去20年来干预巴尔干、索马里、东南亚和中东的临时决策无法成为新的局限时代的决策指南。


This suggests that the US should seek out an overarching strategy to discipline its impulses to fight wars of choice or engage in nation-building efforts.	这表明，美国必须决定新的总体战略，来约束其发动战争或卷入他人建国过程的冲动。


President Barack Obama’s 2010 National Security Strategy nurtures broad policy aspirations – “[n]ow we must position the United States to champion mutual interests among nations and peoples” – but falls short as a practical guide. I suggest an alternative strategy, one already embedded in America history, though largely unrecognized.	奥巴马总统在《2010年国防战略》中提出了广泛的政策愿景——“现在，我们必须将美国置于领导不同国家和民族间共同利益的地位。


But making explicit what lies implicit can sharpen US decision-making.	”但这还不足以成为实践指南。


I call this strategy the “Watershed Doctrine.”	我将这一战略称为“分水岭主义”。


A watershed is a tipping point, a turning point, a game changer.	分水岭可以是触发点，可以是转折点，也可以是博弈局势变换器。


When the US has confronted a “negative watershed” – a lethal threat to the country – it committed meaningful financial and human resources in order to address the risks.	当美国面临“消极分水岭”——即致命国家安全威胁——时，它应该动员财政和人力资源来消除风险。


Positive watersheds – opportunities to engineer seismic shifts in international or regional political affairs through nation-building, or to use economic and military assistance to prevent plausible negative watersheds – demand an equal level of commitment.	积极分水岭——即能对国际或地区政局产生地震偏移影响、走向建立新生国家的机会； 或是可使用经济和军事援助以防止可信消极分水岭的机会——也要求同等的承诺。


The Watershed concept provides policymakers with a standard to use – or at the very least to debate.	分水岭这个概念为决策者提供了可用——至少是可议——的标准。


It is an organizing tool for policymaking: Is an international challenge a watershed or not?	它是一种决策组织工具：某项国际挑战是否属于分水岭？


If so, get involved.	如果是，就介入；


If not, stay out.	如果不是，就袖手旁观。


We find watersheds throughout American history.	我们研究了美国历史上的分水岭。


The War of 1812 and the Civil War are clear examples.	1812年战争和内战是显著的例子。


Had American forces not expelled the British from US territory in the first, and had Abraham Lincoln and the Union not prevailed in the second, the country would have been balkanized and unable to become the dominant power of the twentieth century.	如果美国武装未能在一开始就把英国人驱逐出美国领土，如果林肯和联邦未能在内战中获胜，那么美国早已分崩离析，绝无可能成为20世纪的超级大国。


By contrast, America’s flirtation with colonialism in the Spanish American War, its involvement in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean throughout the twentieth century, and, arguably, World War I, were not watersheds for the US.	相反，美西战争时期一时兴起的殖民主义、20世纪在墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区的介入，以及第一次世界大战（该事件颇可商榷）对美国来说并非分水岭。


But America’s inability after the Great War to overcome Old World politics at Versailles and isolationism at home marked a failed opportunity to promote a positive watershed.	但美国在一战之后的凡尔赛会议中未能压倒旧世界政治以及国内出现的孤立主义均属于坐失积极分水岭良机的例子。


That failure placed the world on the path to the negative watershed posed by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.	由于美国的坐失良机，世界走上了通往消极分水岭的道路——纳粹主义德国和帝国主义日本崛起了。


Nothing foreordained that the US and its allies would prevail.	美国及其盟友最后胜出并非事先注定之事。


Had the Axis’s negative watershed succeeded, the US would have become a far different country.	如果轴心国消极分水岭最后胜出，那么美国将成为与现在远不相同的国家。


A positive watershed, under-appreciated today, developed in the years immediately after World War II with the political transformation of Germany and Japan.	如今有一大未被注意到的积极分水岭，该分水岭从二战结束后就立刻出现了，那就是德国和日本的转型。


America’s remarkable investment of resources in this outcome made both countries stable, peaceful democracies, thereby eliminating them as adversaries and turning them into vital bulwarks against the next harbinger of a negative watershed, the Soviet Union.	美国对德日转型投入了巨大的资源，让两国变为稳定、和平的民主国家，从而消除了它们成为敌国的可能，将它们塑造为抵御下一个潜在消极分水岭——苏联的桥头堡。


Unlike the battle against the Axis, the US fought the Cold War in many ways, on many fronts, and over many decades – using politics, economics, and nuclear deterrence, as well as limited armed action, to ensure the USSR’s containment.	与对轴心国的战争不同，美国在冷战上采取了多种战术、全面开花，并持续了几十年之久——使用了政治、经济以及核威慑，也使用了有限武力，以保证对苏联的遏制。


In time, the US had to accept that each political contest or military battle lost was not a watershed as long as its core interests in Europe, the Far East, and Latin America were not threatened. Through trial and error – backed by a durable political and economic system – the US prevailed and the Soviet Union disintegrated.	美国必须及时接受这样一个概念：任何政治和军事战争的失利都不是分水岭，只要其在欧洲、远东和拉美的核心利益不受损失。


The rise of Islamic fundamentalism poses another historic challenge, though one that is far more inchoate than any that the US has faced before.	伊斯兰原教旨主义的崛起代表着有一大历史挑战，虽然这一挑战与美国历史上所面临的那些挑战相比还只能说是萌而未发。


In other times, the challenge would not even be called a watershed.	在过去，这样的挑战甚至不会被称为是分水岭。


But the risk that weapons of mass destruction could be turned against the US makes it so.	但大规模杀伤性武器可能被用于对付美国这一风险让它成了分水岭。


Then there is the “Arab Spring,” a potential positive watershed that calls upon the US to decide how deep a political, economic, and military commitment it ought to make to nurture positive results.	其次则是“阿拉伯之春”，这是潜在积极分水岭，美国应该评估一下，为了追求积极结果，应该投入多少政治、经济和军事力量。


Today, the US is a more sober and realistic country than it was in the heyday of the early post-Cold War period.	如今，美国比后冷战时代全盛期更加冷静现实了。


But, in the aftermath of setbacks in regions where it intervened, and with heightened economic distress at home, the US finds itself uncertain about how to respond to changing global events.	但是，由于美国在其所干预的地区受到了诸多挫折，而国内则正在饱受经济低迷之苦，因此在如何应对国际局势变化上，美国需要面临诸多不确定性。


Pursuing a “Watershed Doctrine” might provide the right answer.	“分水岭主义”可能可以为美国提供正确的道路。


A Weak Start for START	新核武条约的艰难起步


LOS ANGELES – A strange sense of déjà vu is gripping Washington these days, as the debate over ratification by the United States Senate of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia heats up.	发自洛杉矶——随着美国参议院就是否批准美俄新《削减战略武器条约》（Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty）的辩论日渐升温，某种似曾相识的奇异感觉又开始笼罩在华盛顿上空了。


Spats have broken out between the Obama administration, future presidential contenders, senators, and arms control and defense experts. There may not be nostalgia for the Cold War in any of this, but much of that era’s mindset can be perceived again in the arguments being knocked about.	舌战在奥巴马政府、未来总统竞争者，参议员和武器防空专家之间展开，而在辩论中我们虽然看不到任何对冷战的怀念，但却能觉察到：那个年代的思维又回来了。


The Senate must decide whether New START enhances American security.	参议院必须决定新条约究竟能否提高美国的国防安全。


Unfortunately, whatever the decision -- which has been delayed perhaps until late Fall to allow Obama’s administration more time to muster support for the treaty -- the US and Russian governments will continue to place each other in the nuclear crosshairs for the foreseeable future.	不幸的是，虽然决议限期被推迟到秋末——好让奥巴马政府能有时间去争取更多支持——但不管结论如何，美俄两国政府依然会在可见的未来把核导弹互相指向对方。


New START builds on a legacy of strategic nuclear arms limitation that goes back to the 1970’s.	新条约是建立在1970年代限制战略核武器的政治遗产之上的。


Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger captured the allure in recent testimony: “The subject of nuclear arms control grew out of the seemingly paradoxical effort of those who had created the largest and most destructive arsenals to avoid by negotiation the ultimate consequences of their own decisions.”	而前美国国务卿亨利·基辛格最近的证词则吸引了大家的眼球，他说：“对于那些拥有最为庞大且最具破坏力的军火库，却又矛盾地想通过谈判来避免承受自己（发射）决定的最终后果的人来说，核武器控制问题已经超出了他们原先设想的范畴。 ”


Over the years “avoiding…the ultimate consequences” through limitations butted against the bitter legacy of the surprise attacks suffered by both the US and Russia in World War II.	在那个年代，美俄双方一方面要通过限制来避免基辛格所说的“最终后果”，另一方面却对二战中遭受突袭的惨痛经历记忆犹新。


After the war, each adopted a “never be surprised again” policy, and so went on to invest trillions of dollars in a multitude of hardened, mobile, and concealed nuclear weapons to deter the other.	两国在二战后都制定了某种防御突袭的政策，为了达到威慑对方的目的，双方还投资了数万亿美元来制造大量永备性，机动性和隐蔽性的核武设施。


The result produced tens of thousands of nuclear warheads.	而这些政策的成果就是数万枚核弹头。


In time, strategic arms control treaties became the measure of the political relationship.	在那个年代，战略武器控制条约上的进展就是衡量两国关系的标尺。


With the Soviet Union’s collapse, a unique opportunity to end the nuclear competition emerged.	随着苏联解体，一个终结核武竞赛的绝佳机会出现在人们眼前。


While elimination did take place in the former Soviet Republics, the Kremlin hung on to its nuclear arsenal – the last vestige of Russia’s former superpower status.	但当某些前苏联加盟共和国着手销毁核武器之时，克里姆林宫却将核武器库——这个俄罗斯前超级大国地位的最后一点遗产——紧紧地抱在了怀里。


Likewise, US administrations have remained wedded to the Bomb.	无独有偶，美国政府也不愿意放弃自己的核武器。


As a result, the “nuclear hostage” relationship of the Cold War continued, capped in 2002 by the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty, which set the upper limit on warheads at 2,200 by 2012.	于是冷战时期的“核人质”关系继续维持了下来，最终在2002年的《削减战略进攻性核武器条约》中告一段落，商定各自于2012年将核弹头数量减少到2200枚。


In the spring of 2009, speaking in Prague, Obama advanced a bold ambition: a world without nuclear weapons.	在2009年春的布拉格讲话中，奥巴马提出了一个更具野心的建议：无核世界。


But his audacity confronted a world in which the Bomb remained at the heart of many countries’ deterrence strategies.	但他的大胆建议却生不逢时，因为核武器依然是许多国家威慑战略的核心。


Obama muddled his message further by admitting that he did not expect to see abolition in his lifetime.	这令奥巴马都不免感到气馁，只得承认说他并不认为这一想法能在自己有生之年成为现实。


Nonetheless, New START marks a step in the direction of disarmament.	但即便如此，新条约其实是向核裁军方面迈进的新一步。


It would limit each country to 1,550 strategic warheads on 700 deployed delivery vehicles.	它会将双方的战略核弹头数量削减到1550枚，发射车数量减少到700辆。


Verification relies on 18 on-site inspections, notification of forces in and out of service, missile-test flight information and other data exchanges, plus a consultative commission to iron out compliance.	而验证方式则依靠对双方部署区域的18次检查，对核武器的服役/退役情况，导弹发射测试以及其他信息的互相告知，并成立一个商议委员会来平息争端。


Were the US Senate to fail to ratify New START, the treaty’s proponents argue that the US would lose predictability about Russia’s nuclear activities, resulting in greater distrust and risk of miscalculation, making both sides less secure.	新条约的支持者们宣称，如果参议院未能通过的话，美国将难以预测俄罗斯未来的核活动，并以此产生更多的不信任和误判，最终令双方都更不安全。


But arms-control skeptics take issue with this. Throughout the Cold War, they viewed restraints on America’s development and fielding of nuclear weapons as compromising national security.	但那些对武器削减持怀疑态度的人可不这样认为：在整个冷战期间，他们将美国对发展和部署核武器的限制视为对国家安全的出卖。


Fears that the Soviet Union would cheat reinforced their position. And cheating did indeed upset the broader superpower relationship.	那些对苏联可能使诈的忧虑有力地支持了他们的观点，而两个超级大国之间的关系确实也曾因背叛而遭到损害。


Today, similar apprehensions stoke opposition to New START.	时至今日，同样的忧虑也对新条约构成了障碍。


To allay such concerns, the Obama administration committed to a multi-year increase in the budgets of the US military’s nuclear-weapons laboratories.	为了安抚这些忧虑，奥巴马承诺逐年增加对美军核武器研究所的经费支持。


And in the April 10 release of the Nuclear Posture Review, Obama’s administration warned nuclear-armed states and others tempted to violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that they would remain nuclear targets.	而在4月10日发布的《核态势研究报告》中，政府也警告那些试图破坏《核不扩散条约》的国家不要轻举妄动，因为他们依然会是美国核导弹的目标。


Missile defense has become another bone of contention.	另一方面，导弹防御也成为了另一个争论焦点。


The language in the preamble to New START states that the agreement will not “undermine the viability and effectiveness of the strategic offensive arms of the Parties.”	在新条约的序言中列明：条约“不会减低双方战略进行性核武器的和可使用性和使用效果”。


Critics contend that the clause, along with the Kremlin’s implied warning that it could withdraw from the treaty unilaterally were America’s defenses to become too robust, provides the Kremlin with leverage to impede deployment of any strategic missile-defense system.	加上俄罗斯方面威胁说如果美国的防御能力太过强大的话，它将单方面退出条约，因此有批评认为条约本身就赋予了俄方阻挠美国部署任何战略防御系统的口实。


The Obama administration repeatedly denies such claims, along with others that the treaty’s verification provisions remain insufficient.	奥巴马政府反复地驳斥了上述批评，同时也否定了对条约核查规定不完备的担心。


It scoffs at assertions that Russia would cheat by multiplying warheads on bombers or new rail-based missile carriers, arguing that the Kremlin would want to avoid America’s compensatory response.	有人指出俄罗斯可能用多弹头导弹��者新轨道导弹运载工具来蒙蔽美国，但政府却不以为然，认为克里姆林宫也担心美国会以牙还牙。


But Obama’s team does concede one point: New START fails to curtail Russia’s large numerical advantage in tactical nuclear weapons.	但奥巴马政府确实承认了一点：那就是新条约无法削弱俄罗斯在战术核武器方面的巨大优势。


Arguing that short-range devices pose no risk to the American homeland, US negotiators plan to press for reductions in follow-on talks.	但政府也认为这种短程的武器显然无法威胁美国本土，并打算在随后的谈判中向俄罗斯施压。


Despite the claims by both the Bush and Obama administrations that Russia and the US are no longer adversaries, it seems that the rapprochement has not translated into elimination of mutual nuclear targeting.	虽然布什和奥巴马政府都宣称美俄双方已经不再是敌人，但双边关系的回暖似乎并没有结束彼此之间的核对峙态势。


The result, even if new START is ratified, should satisfy no one.	这一结果，即便新条约获得批准，也无法令任何人满意。


A Window of Opportunity for European Defense	实现欧洲防卫宏图的时间之窗


MADRID – With budgets exceptionally tight in Europe nowadays, worries about European defense have been growing.	发自马德里——随着欧洲各国预算的逐渐收紧，人们对欧洲防务状况的担忧也与日俱增。


Paradoxically, however, developments in 2010 offer hope for the future.	但出人意料的是，各国在2010年所取得的进展却为未来带来了希望的曙光。


The defense agreement signed in November by France and the United Kingdom is composed of two treaties, which cover joint deployment of their armed forces, nuclear deterrence, and improved equipment and communications.	英法两国于今年11月签署的防卫协议由两部分条约组成，内容涵盖了两国常规武装力量的联合部署，核威慑方面的合作，以及改进装备和沟通机制。


This initiative has the firm political backing of both countries’ leaders, and expresses a clear determination to unite against common threats.	两国领袖都对这一创举予以坚定支持，而协议也高度体现了双方携手应对共同威胁的决心。


Implemented correctly, these treaties could become a hopeful precedent for the entire European Union.	倘若条约能被正确执行下去的话，这将为整个欧盟提供一个成功的范例。


By transcending strictly national limits, these treaties chart the future path of European defense and will help determine the course of Europe’s relations with the United States and NATO.	通过跨越国家之间的严格界限，条约为欧洲防务指明了未来的道路，还会影响欧洲与美国及北约关系的发展进程。


To better judge the treaties’ worth, we must remember the context in which they were conceived.	如果要更好地阐明这些条约的意义，那就必须先回溯它们所产生的背景。


In 1998, the Saint Malo Declaration by French President Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister Tony Blair indicated both countries’ determination to reinforce the EU’s security and defense capabilities.	1998年，法国总统雅克·希拉克和英国首相托尼·布莱尔共同发表了《圣马洛宣言》，表达了两国增强欧盟安全和防卫能力的决心。


Originally reluctant to accept a Europe with autonomous military capacity, the United Kingdom had learned from the intervention in Kosovo that the EU must be able to respond to crises rapidly and efficiently.	英国人原本不怎么愿意接受一个拥有独立军事力量的欧洲，但科索沃事件使他们意识到欧盟必须拥有这么一支力量以便迅速有效地对危机做出反应。


The Saint Malo Declaration signaled that the EU’s leading military powers were prepared to develop their own defense policy, though one not fully autonomous of NATO.	《圣马洛宣言》显示出欧盟各大军事强国正准备独立发展其防卫政策，即便该政策还未能完全脱离北约而存在。


Indeed, through the Berlin Plus agreements, which facilitate use of NATO resources for missions undertaken under the European Defense and Security Policy (ESDP), NATO recognized the ESDP’s maturation over the past decade.	事实上，在允许利用北约资源执行欧洲安全与防卫政策（European Defense and Security Policy，ESDP）任务的《柏林补充协议》签订之后，北约已经承认了ESDP在历经几十年发展后的最终成形。


Indeed, the EU has undertaken 24 missions in Europe, Africa, and Asia, differing in nature, scope, and aims, and combining military and civilian means.	欧盟目前已经在欧亚非三个大洲执行了24个性质，范围和目标各不相同的任务，并实现了军事和民间手段的结合使用。


Today, the EU is being asked to conduct complex missions in adverse circumstances.	在如今的逆境之下，欧盟依然要执行众多复杂的任务。


In doing so, Europe must draw on the lessons of its past successes.	为实现这一点，它必须从过去的成功中吸取经验。


We Europeans need to respond favorably, quickly, and effectively. Defense missions must be more adaptable, prompt, multinational, and multi-instrumental.	防卫任务必须具有更强的适应能力，更快的反应速度，更多的国家间合作，而使用的手段也必须更加丰富立体。


They must be focused on stability and security, regardless of the security situation or the nature of the conflict.	无论当地安全形势如何，或者冲突的本质是什么，任务的重点都必须放在稳定与安全之上。


Yet it is clear that European defense is now struggling mightily with public financing.	但欧洲防务目前只能在恶劣的财政状况下挣扎求存。


Moreover, the latest Eurobarometer poll shows that defense is the last thing that Europeans are worried about.	此外最新的欧洲民意调查也显示：防卫是人们最不重视的一项事务。


It is precisely here that the Franco-British agreement becomes vitally important.	而这也是英法协议为何如此重要的原因。


The treaties mark an attempt to balance action and ambition in a context of economic crisis, fiscal consolidation, large-scale defense transformations, increasing interdependencies, and global threats – from terrorism and nuclear proliferation to climate change, resource scarcity, and epidemics – that are impossible to tackle unilaterally.	经济危机、财政巩固政策、大规模防御手段升级、国家间依存度不断提高以及全球威胁（从恐怖主义、核扩散、气候变化，资源缺乏以及流行病）都不可能由各国独自应对，在此背景下，欧洲领导人尝试利用该协议在实际行动和理想之间实现某种平衡。


It also sets a precedent for the UK, preparing the way for future prime ministers to make advances in this direction.	对英国来说，这同样也是树立了一个范例，好让未来的首相能进一步推动这一进程。