Genuine energy security will come not by invading and occupying the Middle East, or by attempting to impose pliant governments in the region, but by recognizing certain deeper truths about global energy.	真正的能源安全不会通过侵略和占领中东实现，也不会通过在该地区扶植恭顺的政府得到，它需要我们认清某些更深层的全球能源问题。


First, energy strategy must satisfy three objectives: low cost, diverse supply, and drastically reduced carbon dioxide emissions.	首先，能源战略必须满足三个目标：低成本、多供应源、以及二氧化碳排放的极大减少。


This will require massive investments in new technologies and resources, not a “fight to the finish” over Middle East oil.	这需要对新技术和资源进行大规模的投资，而不是为了中东的石油“一战到底”。


Important energy technologies will include conversion of coal to liquids (such as gasoline), use of tar sands and oil shale, and growth in non-fossil-fuel energy sources.	重要的能源技术将包括煤的液化（如汽油）、油砂和油页岩的利用、以及非化石燃料能源的发展。


Indeed, there is excellent potential for low-cost solar power, zero-emitting coal-based technologies, and safe and reliable nuclear power.	低成本的太阳能、零排放的煤基技术、以及安全可靠的核能具有极大的潜力。


Solar radiation equals roughly 10,000 times our current energy use.	太阳辐射约等于人类当前能源利用的1万倍。


We tap that solar power in many fundamental ways – food production, wind power, hydroelectric power, solar heating, solar-thermal electricity, solar panels – but the possibilities for greatly increased use of inexpensive, widely available, and environmentally friendly solar power are huge.	我们目前对太阳能的利用非常基础——食品生产、风能、水电、太阳能加热、太阳热能发电、太阳能电池板——但是太阳能便宜、随处可见且无环境污染，大幅度提高对太阳能的利用的前景十分巨大。


Coal, like solar energy, is widely available.	煤和太阳能一样，也是到处都有。


It is already inexpensive, but it is a solid rather than a liquid, a major pollutant, and a source of greenhouse gas emissions.	煤价已经很低，不过煤是固体而非液体，污染严重，是温室效应气体的排放源。


Yet all of these problems can be solved, especially if we make the needed investments in research and development.	然而所有这些问题都可以解决，只要在研究和开发上投入必要的投资。


Gasification of coal allows for the removal of dangerous pollutants, and coal can already be converted to gasoline at low cost; a South African company is beginning to bring that technology to China on a large scale.	气化煤可以消除危险的污染物，而且煤已经可以通过低成本的方式转化成汽油； 一家南非公司已开始将这项技术大规模地引入中国。


Nuclear power, both fission-based and fusion-based, is yet another possibility for vast, reliable, secure, and environmentally safe primary energy.	聚变和裂变产生的核能是另一种大量、可靠、安全且无环境污染的初级能源。


Here, too, there are technological obstacles, but they seem surmountable.	这里同样存在技术障碍，不过看起来可以克服。


Of course, there are also major political, regulatory, and security considerations, all of which need to be addressed properly.	当然，此外还有重大的政治、制度以及安全方面的因素，所有这些问题都需要适当处理。


It is ironic that an administration fixated on the risks of Middle East oil has chosen to spend hundreds of billions—potentially trillions—of dollars to pursue unsuccessful military approaches to problems that can and should be solved at vastly lower cost, through R&D, regulation, and market incentives.	一个一门心思想要降低中东石油风险的政府选择了耗费数千亿——甚至可能达到数万亿——美元，推行并不成功的军事行动来解决问题，而这些问题本来可以并且应该通过相对低廉的成本、研发、管理和市场激励解决。


The biggest energy crisis of all, it seems, involves the misdirected energy of a US foreign policy built on war rather than scientific discovery and technological progress.	这真是极大的讽刺！ 看来，最严重的能源危机在于美国外交政策错误地将精力放在战争上，而不是放在科学发现和技术进步上。


Escaping the Oil Curse	摆脱石油“魔咒”


CAMBRIDGE – Libyans have a new lease on life, a feeling that, at long last, they are the masters of their own fate.	麻省剑桥——利比亚人重获生机，在经历这么多事之后，终于感到自己成为命运的主人。


Perhaps Iraqis, after a decade of warfare, feel the same way.	也许伊拉克人，在经历十年战争之后，也有同感。


Both countries are oil producers, and there is widespread expectation among their citizens that that wealth will be a big advantage in rebuilding their societies.	这两国都是产油国，其民众普遍期待这一天赐之宝能在社会重建过程中成为一个巨大优势。


Meanwhile, in Africa, Ghana has begun pumping oil for the first time, and Uganda is about to do so as well.	与此同时，非洲的加纳采出了该国有史以来的第一桶石油，乌干达也决心效法。


Indeed, from West Africa to Mongolia, countries are experiencing windfalls from new discoveries of oil and mineral wealth.	说真的，从西非到蒙古，好多国家都财自天降，发现了石油和矿产。


Heightening the euphoria are the historic levels that oil and mineral prices have reached on world markets over the last four years.	石油和矿产价格在世界市场上达到了四年以来的历史高位，可谓喜上加喜。


Many countries have been in this position before, exhilarated by natural-resource bonanzas, only to see the boom end in disappointment and the opportunity squandered, with little payoff in terms of a better quality of life for their people.	很多国家都有过类似的经历，因为发现自然资源而喜出望外，最终却落得失望的下场，天赐良机白白浪费，国民的生活质量却没有大的改善。


But, whether in Libya or Ghana, political leaders today have an advantage: most are well aware of history, and want to know how to avoid the infamous natural-resource “curse.”	但是，不论是利比亚还是加纳，今天的政治领袖们有一个优势，他们大都记得前车之鉴，都想知道如何才能避免臭名昭著的自然资源“魔咒”。


To prescribe a cure, one must first diagnose the illness.	要开药房，就先得诊病。


Why do oil riches turn out to be a curse as often as they are a blessing?	为什么盛产石油往往是魔咒而不是祝福？


Economists have identified six pitfalls that can afflict natural-resource exporters: commodity-price volatility, crowding out of manufacturing, “Dutch disease” (a booming export industry causes rapid currency appreciation, which undermines other exporters’ competitiveness), inhibited institutional development, civil war, and excessively rapid resource depletion (with insufficient saving).	经济学家辨识出自然资源出口国常常陷入的六个陷阱：商品价格波动、制造业挤出、“荷兰病”（某一出口行业的繁荣导致货币迅速升值，瓦解了其他出口行业的竞争力）、制度发展滞后、内战以及资源的过早耗竭（因为不够节约）。


Oil prices are especially volatile, as the large swings over the last five years remind us.	油价波动特别厉害，最近五年的过山车走势是一个很好的提醒。


The recent oil boom could easily turn to bust, especially if global economic activity slows.	近期的石油大牛市很容易逆转成熊市，尤其是当全球经济活动减速。


Volatility itself is costly, leaving economies unable to respond effectively to price signals.	波动性本身也是有成本的，它会导致经济无法有效地对价格信号做出反应。


Temporary commodity booms typically pull workers, capital, and land away from fledgling manufacturing sectors and production of other internationally traded goods.	短期的商品牛市往往会从稚嫩的制造业和其他国际贸易品生产行业那里吸走工人、资本和土地。


This reallocation can damage long-term economic development if those sectors nurture learning by doing and fuel broader productivity gains.	这种资源再分配可能伤及长期的经济发展，因为那些受损的行业，往往蕴含着边做边学的机会，本来可以促进生产力的广泛提高。


The problem is not just that workers, capital, and land are sucked into the booming commodity sector.	问题不仅在于工人、资本和土地被吸进商品部门的畸形繁荣。


They also are frequently lured away from manufacturing by booms in construction and other non-tradable goods and services.	制造业失去的血液往往也会流向地产开发和其他非贸易品和服务部门。


The pattern also includes an exuberant expansion of government spending, which can result in bloated public payrolls and large infrastructure projects, both of which are found to be unsustainable when oil prices fall.	这种模式还包括政府开支的过度扩张，导致公务员薪资膨胀，基础设施建设大干快上，一旦油价下跌，两者都将不可持续。


If the manufacturing sector has been “hollowed out” in the meantime, so much the worse.	如果制造业已被“空心化”，结果会更惨。


Even if an increase in oil prices turns out to be permanent, pitfalls abound.	就算油价上涨真能持久，还是有不少陷阱等着它们。


Governments that can finance themselves simply by retaining physical control over oil or mineral deposits often fail in the long run to develop institutions that are conducive to economic development.	可以轻易靠石油矿产资源供养自己的政府，往往难以发展出有利于经济增长的长期制度。


Such countries evolve a hierarchical authoritarian society in which the only incentive is to compete for privileged access to commodity rents.	此类国家往往演化出一个金字塔形的威权社会，人们唯一的动力就是争夺商品寻租的特权。


In the extreme case, this competition can take the form of civil war.	在极端情况下，这种争夺演变为内战。


In a country without resource wealth, by contrast, elites have little alternative but to nurture a decentralized economy in which individuals have incentives to work and save.	在没有丰富资源的国家，精英们反而没有什么办法，只能让经济分散发展，以便让人们有动力去工作和储蓄。


These are the economies that industrialize.	那样的国家才会走上工业化道路。


The final pitfall is excessively rapid depletion of oil or mineral deposits, in violation of optimal rates of saving, let alone environmental preservation.	最后一个陷阱是石油矿产资源过早的耗尽，违反节约原则，更说不上保护环境了。


What can countries do to ensure that natural resources are a blessing rather than a curse?	有关国家怎么做才能确保自然资源发挥好的作用而不是把自己毁掉呢？


Some policies and institutions have been tried and failed.	有一些政策和制度，经过实验证明失败。


These include, in particular, attempts to suppress artificially the fluctuations of the global marketplace by imposing price controls, export controls, marketing boards, and cartels.	特别是试图人为抑制国际市场波动，搞价格控制、出口控制、市场联盟和卡特尔垄断等等。


But some countries have succeeded, and their strategies could be useful models for Libya, Iraq, Ghana, Mongolia, and others to emulate.	但也有一些国家成功了，它们的成功经验可以作为利比亚、伊拉克、加纳、蒙古和其他国家效仿的有用模式。 这些经验包括，像墨西哥那样利用石油期权市场对冲出口价格风险；


These include: hedging export earnings – for example, via the oil options market, as Mexico does; ensuring counter-cyclical fiscal policy – for example, via a variant of Chile’s structural budget rule; and delegating sovereign wealth funds to professional managers, as Botswana’s Pula Fund does.	像智利那样利用结构性财政管理维持财政政策的反周期性； 像博茨瓦纳那样雇用专业经历运作主权财富基金等等。


Finally, some promising ideas have virtually never been tried at all: denominating bonds in oil prices instead of dollars, to protect against the risk of a price decline; choosing commodity-price targeting as an alternative to inflation targeting or exchange-rate targeting for anchoring monetary policy; and distributing oil revenues on a nationwide per capita basis, to ensure that they do not wind up in elites’ Swiss bank accounts.	最后，还有一些很有前途的思路，还从未有人尝试过：发行以石油价格而非美元计价的债券，以预防价格风险； 在货币政策上，以商品价格目标制代替通胀目标制或汇率目标制；


Leaders have free will.	那些国家的领袖们有选择的自由。


Oil exporters need not be prisoners of a curse that has befallen others.	产油国不是注定要成为那��“魔咒”的牺牲品。


Countries can choose to use their resource bonanzas for the long-term economic advancement of their people, not just that of their leaders.	那些国家可以利用其自然资源为其国民谋求长期的经济改善，而不是仅仅为了领袖个人或者家族。


From the CIA to the GFE	从CIA到GFE


NEW YORK – The United States needs to shift its spending from war to education, from CIA-backed regime change to a new Global Fund for Education (GFE).	纽约—美国需要把支出从战争转移到教育上，从中央情报局（CIA）支持的颠覆政权活动转移到新的全球教育基金（GFE）上。


With hundreds of millions of children around the world not in school, or in schools with under-qualified teachers, a lack of computers, large class sizes, and no electricity, many parts of the world are headed for massive instability, joblessness, and poverty.	全世界有数亿儿童无学可上，或在教师质量低下、缺少计算机、班级规模庞大和没有电的学校上学，全世界许多地方因此正在走向大规模动荡、失业和贫困。


The twenty-first century will belong to countries that properly educate their young people to participate productively in the global economy.	二十一世纪属于能让年轻人获得合理教育从而能够参与全球经济生产的国家。


The current imbalance in US spending on global education and military-related programs is staggering: $1 billion per year on the former, and roughly $900 billion on the latter.	目前，美国在全球教育和军事相关项目上的开支非常不平衡：前者每年要花10亿美元，后者则高达9,000亿美元。


Military-related programs include the Pentagon (around $600 billion), the CIA and related agencies (around $60 billion), Homeland Security (around $50 billion), nuclear weapons systems outside of the Pentagon (around $30 billion), and veterans’ programs (around $160 billion).	军事相关项目包括国防部（大约6,000亿美元）、CIA及相关机构（大约600亿美元）、国土安全部（大约500亿美元）、不由国防部负责的核武器系统（大约300亿美元）以及老兵项目（大约1,600亿美元）。


What US politicians and policymakers in their right minds could believe that US national security is properly pursued through a 900-to-1 ratio of military spending to global education spending?	美国政客和决策者的思维一定不正常，否则他们绝不会认为900比1的军事-全球教育支出比有利于美国国家安全。


Of course, the US is not alone.	当然，美国在这方面不是“孤家寡人”。


Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel are all squandering vast sums in an accelerating Middle East arms race, in which the US is the major financier and arms supplier.	沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和以色列都在耗费巨资加速中东军备竞赛，而美国是主要金主和军备供应者。


China and Russia are also sharply boosting military spending, despite their pressing domestic priorities.	中国和俄罗斯也在迅速增加军事支出，尽管它们还面临紧迫的国内要务。


We are, it seems, courting a new arms race among major powers, at a time when what is really needed is a peaceful race to education and sustainable development.	看上去列强之间正在进行一场新的军备竞赛，而此时此刻真正需要的是教育和可持续发展的和平竞赛。


Several recent international reports, including two this month by UNESCO and the International Commission on Financing Global Education, headed by former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, show that annual global development assistance for primary and secondary education needs to rise from around $4 billion to around $40 billion.	一些最新国际报告，包括本月两份由英国前首相戈登·布朗主持的联合国教科文组织和全球教育融资国际委员会的报告，表明每年用于小学和中学教育的全球发展援助必须从大约40亿美元增加到大约400亿美元。


Only this ten-fold increase can enable poor countries to achieve universal primary and secondary education (as called for by Goal Four of the new Sustainable Development Goals).	惟其如此，穷国才能实现全民小学和中学教育（这也是新的可持续发展目标中的第四个目标）。


In response, the US and other rich countries should move this year to create the GFE, with the needed funds shifted from today’s military spending.	作为回应，美国和其他发达国家应该将今年的剩余时光用于成立GFE，将今天用于军事支出的钱拿来为GFE提供资金。


If Hillary Clinton, the likely next US president, genuinely believes in peace and sustainable development, she should announce her intention to back the GFE’s creation, just as President George W. Bush in 2001 was the first head of state to endorse the newly proposed Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria.	如果有望成为下任美国总统的希拉里·克林顿真的相信和平和可持续发展，那么她应该宣布准备支持成立GFE，正如2001年小布什总统成为第一个支持新提出的遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金的国家元首。


She should call on China and others to join this multilateral effort.	她应该呼吁中国和其他国家加入这一多边行动。


The alternative – to continue spending massively on defense rather than on global education – would condemn the US to the status of a declining imperial state tragically addicted to hundreds of overseas military bases, tens of billions of dollars in annual arms sales, and perpetual wars.	否则——继续花费巨资用于防务而不是全球教育——美国将沦为悲剧地沉迷于数百个海外军事基地、数十亿美元年度军备销售以及永久性战争的衰落的帝国。


Without a GFE, poor countries will lack the resources to educate their kids, just as they were unable to finance the fight against AIDS, TB, and malaria until the Global Fund was established.	没有GFE，穷国就无法得到足够资源教育它们的孩子，一如如果遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金没有成立，它们也无法拿出钱来治理这些疾病。


Here’s the basic budgetary challenge: it costs at least $250 in a poor country to educate a child for a year, but low-income countries can afford, on average, only around $90 per child per year.	这里存在一个基本预算挑战：穷国为一名儿童提供一年教育至少需要250美元，但低收入国家平均只能负担每人每年90美元左右。


There is a gap of $160 per child for around 240 million school-aged kids in need, or about $40 billion per year.	2. 4亿名学龄儿童每人每年存在160美元缺口，总数高达400亿美元左右。


The consequences of underfunded education are tragic.	基础教育资金不足的后果是悲剧性的。


Kids leave school early, often without being able to read or write at a basic level.	儿童过早离开学校，常常还没有掌握基本读写技能。


These dropouts often sign up with gangs, drug traffickers, even jihadists.	这些辍学者常常成为黑社会、毒贩甚至圣战者。


Girls marry and begin to have children very young.	女孩很早就结婚生子。


Fertility rates stay high and the children of these poor, under-educated mothers (and fathers) have few realistic prospects of escaping poverty.	生育率居高不下，教育程度很低的贫穷母亲（和父亲）的孩子很难摆脱贫穷。


The cost of failing to create decent jobs through decent schooling is political instability, mass migration to the US (from Central America and the Caribbean) and Europe (from the Middle East and Africa), and violence related to poverty, drugs, human trafficking, and ethnic conflict.	不能通过优质学校教育创造体面工作岗位的代价是政治动荡、大量移民美国（从中美和加勒比地区）和欧洲（从中东和非洲）以及与贫穷、毒品、人贩和种族冲突有关的暴力。


Soon enough, the US drones arrive to exacerbate the underlying instability.	很快，美国无人机就将到来，加剧动荡。


In short, we need to shift from the CIA to the GFE, from the expensive failures of US-led regime change (including those targeting Afghanistan’s Taliban, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, Libya’s Muammar el-Qaddafi, and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad) to investments in health, education, and decent jobs.	简言之，我们需要从CIA转向GFE，从代价高昂的美国领导的政权颠覆行动（包括以阿富汗塔利班、伊拉克的萨达姆·侯赛因、利比亚的卡扎菲和叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德为目标的行动）转向健康、教育和体面工作岗位投资。


Some critics of aid argue that funds for education will simply be wasted.	一些援助批评者认为，为教育而投入的资金根本就是浪费。


Yet the critics said exactly the same about disease control in 2000 when I proposed a scale-up of funding for public health.	但2000年我提出加大公共卫生资金投入时批评者也是这么说疾病控制的。


Sixteen years later, the results are in: disease burdens have fallen sharply, and the Global Fund proved to be a great success (the donors now think so, too, and have recently replenished its accounts).	十六年后，情况是这样的：疾病负担显著下降，全球基金证明是巨大的成功（出资人现在也同意这一点，并在最近追加了投入）。


To establish a successful counterpart for education, first the US and other countries would pool their assistance into a single new fund.	要在教育方面也成立一个全球基金，首先美国和其他国家要将各自的援助组成一个新的基金。


The fund would then invite low-income countries to submit proposals for support.	接着，该基金邀请低收入国家递交支持方案。


A technical and non-political review panel would assess the proposals and recommend those that should be funded.	方案由一个非政治的技术评估小组进行评估，并建议哪些方案应该得到资金支持。


Approved proposals would then receive support, with the GFE monitoring and evaluating implementation, enabling well-performing governments to build track records and reputations for sound management.	被批准的方案将获得支持，并由GFE实施监督和评估，以使表现出色的政府获得可靠治理的记录和名声。


Since 2000, the US and other countries have squandered trillions of dollars on wars and arms purchases.	2000年以来，美国和其他国家在战争和军购上豪掷数万亿美元。


The time has come for a sensible, humane, and professional new approach that would scale up investment in education while scaling back expenditures on wars, coups, and weaponry.	现在，它们应该采取明智、人道、专业的新方针，扩大教育投资，同时缩减战争、政变和军备支出。


The education of the world’s youth offers the surest path – indeed, the only path – to global sustainable development.	教育全世界年轻人是全球可持续发展最可靠的道路——事实上，也是唯一的道路。


The Transparency Challenge	透明度挑战


NEW YORK – So now we Americans know.	纽约—现在我们美国人知道了。


We know that our government is spying not just on foreigners; it is also spying on us.	我们知道了我们的政府不但监控外国人，也在监控我们。


Of course, most of what the government “knows” about you is “known” only in the sense that someone could get at it if they wanted to find out more about you – or if your data matched some pattern that they were investigating.	当然，关于政府“知道”你什么，大部分只有在某些人想了解你的更多东西时能接触这些信息时——或者在你的数据与他们正在调查的某个模式相匹配时——才会被“知道”。


So, in a sense, the data that the government collects are harmless – that is, until such information is used for a real-world purpose, such as putting people on a no-fly list or forcing into an institution someone whose online posts are “troubling.”	因此，从某种程度说，政府所收集的数据是无害的——我的意思是，在这些信息被用于真实世界目的（如将你列入禁飞名单或强迫网上所发帖子“惹麻烦”的你进局子）之前是无害的。


And that is only the beginning.	而这只是开始。


Personally, I am reluctantly willing to accept the US government spying on people, especially foreigners, as long as it is constrained by rules that are public and enforced.	就个人而言，我难以接受美国政府监控人民（特别是外国人）的说法，因为政府受公开的有强制力的规则约束。


The argument that “the other guys do it” is lame, but it is also true.	“别人也这么做”的借口是蹩脚的，但也是事实。


The absence of a world government deters abusive power – however imperfectly, it forces governments to compete (even though they often collude).	缺少世界政府阻止了权力滥用——不管如何不完美，这迫使政府互相竞争（尽管它们往往勾搭成奸）。


And, in an imperfect world, part of each government’s job is to protect its citizens from enemies.	此外，在一个不完美的世界中，任何政府都有保护公民免受敌人伤害的责任。


Regardless of what I think, Americans live in a democracy, and overall, the public seems to support government surveillance.	不管我怎么想，美国人生活在民主国家中，并且总体而言，公众似乎支持政府的监控行为。


The question is how to keep surveillance off the slippery slope to unaccountable snooping.	问题在于如何防止监控堕落为不受问责的恣意窥探。


The most important principle is transparency: It is wrong to lie and pretend that we are not doing it.	最重要的原则在于透明度：撒谎并装作我们并未这样做是错误的。


Some Americans are horrified that our government is doing it at all; others think that it mostly depends on what the government is looking for – terrorists, yes; political opponents, no.	一些美国人对我们的政府在做这样的勾当惊恐不已； 一些美国人这主要取决于政府在找什么——恐怖主义的话可以；


What about troubled teenagers?	政治反对者的话不行。 那么“熊孩子”呢？


Bullies?	流氓地痞呢？


Potential criminals?	潜在罪犯呢？


There is a lot of judgment involved.	这里包含着大量的判断。


In practice, resolving such questions must be a matter of continuous public scrutiny and negotiation.	在实践中，解决这一问题必须涉及不间断的公共监督和谈判。


But what of the assumptions that we rarely question?	但我们很少质疑这个说法呢？ 是的，我们的政府的主要职责是保护我们；


Yes, our government’s primary job is to protect us; but people die all the time, often unfairly, and there are limits on how much protection we seek or even allow.	但每时每刻都有人死去，并且死因通常不公正； 对于我们追求或可以追求多大程度保护的界线也不清晰。


We permit deadly cars on the highway; we let people die because of inadequate medical care; we tolerate bridges that collapse.	我们允许高速公路出现致死车祸； 我们允许有人因为得不到充足的医疗而死；


When it comes to terrorism, however, we have created an atmosphere of fear that is wildly disproportionate to the actual risk, handing power to terrorists unnecessarily and harming ourselves preemptively.	但是，对于恐怖主义，我们营造了一种恐惧氛围，这种氛围往往远甚于实际风险，给恐怖分子按上了过大的实力，从一开始就自己吓唬着自己。


In many cases, the treatment – or the immune response – is worse than the disease.	在许多案例中，疗方——或免疫对策——比疾病更糟糕。


Do we want to call in the government over every possible irregularity?	我们想一出现反常情况就招徕政府吗？


Do we want a world that is safe from criminals, but where most people are treated like criminals, with their every move monitored?	我们想要一个没有犯罪、但大部分人都被当成罪犯对待、他们的一举一动都受到监控的安全世界吗？


Maybe we are attacking the wrong target – people – in our quest for safety.	也许在对安全的追求中，我们树错了靶子——人民。


Perhaps it would be better to control the weapons.	也许更好的办法是控制武器。


Every time someone goes on a shooting rampage, we ask why this particular person was not detected and stopped.	每当有人走上枪击犯罪之路，我们都会问为什么没有查出这个具体的个人的异样并阻止他。


But we should have stopped him (and many others) from getting a gun in the first place.	但我们本应该在一开始阻止他（和许多其他人）弄到枪。


In the US, however, one often needs more ID to get on an airplane than to buy a gun.	但是，在美国买到枪比登上飞机还简单。


That is crazy.	这真是疯狂。


The danger of terrorist attacks on aircraft is highly exaggerated.	恐怖分子袭击飞机的危险被高度夸大了。


Then again, if voters want the government to continue to search travelers, I do not object (especially if I can pay a little money and sacrifice a little privacy to go through an expedited preferred-traveler lane).	同样地，如果选民想要政府继续检查旅客，我不会反对（特别是如果我可以花一点小钱、牺牲一点隐私从优先通道上飞机的话）。


The things that trouble me are different.	困扰我的是另外的东西。


Power – especially destructive power – implies the need for transparency.	力量——特别是毁灭性力量——意味着我们需要透明度。


That is, we should know more about our government than it knows about us.	我的意思是，我们应该比我们的政府了解我们更多地了解政府。


When citizens acquire power – through, say, an elected position, a job that lets them decide who gets a liquor license or who gets arrested with a gun – the public has a right to know more about them.	当公民得到力量时——比如通过当选某个职位从而得以决定谁可以获得贩酒牌照或谁会因为持有枪支被捕——公众就有权利了解他们。


That is why I am more concerned with what the government does with its data concerning us.	这就是为何我更关心政府如何使用它所掌握的关于我们的数据。


Will it circumscribe my freedom or prohibit me from taking certain jobs?	这样会限制我的自由或让我无法获得某个工作职位吗？


Will it curb my right to speak freely or punish me by throwing me in jail?	这样会伤害我的言论自由权或把我关起来吗？


Will it scrutinize my tax returns extra carefully?	这样会地毯式地检查我的纳税申报吗？


Carelessness about the truth leads to lack of accountability.	忽略事实导致了问责的缺失。


But just having the truth does not create accountability by itself.	但仅仅拥有事实并不能凭空创造出问责。


Too many people who applaud (as do I) the leaks by the former US intelligence contractor Edward J. Snowden think that the job is done.	太多（像我一样）赞美前美国情报承包商斯诺登的泄密行为的人认为这一步已经完成了。


It is not: The reason for transparency is that we cannot resolve all questions in advance.	并非如此：需要透明度的原因在于我们不可能事先解决所有问题。


There is no sensible way to regulate all government behavior, but we do want – for ourselves and for whistleblowers – the right to legal recourse and to speak out if we (or someone else) may have been wronged.	没有可行的办法监管一切政府行为，但我们确实希望——为了我们自己，也为了告密者——拥有诉诸法律的权利和在我们（或其他人）可能做错时说出来的权利。


Finally, in a transparent world, culture, as opposed to laws, becomes more important than ever as a guide to behavior.	最后，在一个透明的世界中，文化（而不是法律）会变成前所未有地重要的行为指南。


Two trends deserve attention and mitigation (but not regulation or secrecy!).	有两大趋势值得关注并应该遏制（但不是监管或保密！


First, the press covers human tragedy and terrorism to such an extent that most parents are more scared of kidnappers than of careless drivers, and most of us fear terrorists more than careless homebuilders – despite statistics to the contrary.	）首先，媒体大量报道人间悲剧和恐怖主义，以至于大部分父母亲担心绑架甚于交通事故，而我们大部分人担心恐怖分子甚于粗心大意的建筑工人——尽管统计数据表明我们应该反其道而行之。


In the US, people are twice as likely to die from suicide as from homicide.	在美国，人们自杀的可能性比被杀高一倍。


But the correct response is more transparency (and some statistical sophistication) about the mundane fact that Americans are mostly safe.	但正确的应对是用更大的透明度（以及一定程度的统计完善性）表明美国人大体安全这一宇宙真理。


Second, with transparency we tend to see more of humans at their worst.	其次，有了透明度，我们倾向于更多地看到人性恶的一面。


Badly behaved movie stars and politicians skew ideas of the norm – or of what should be acceptable.	反面角色电影明星和政客扭曲了正统思想——或应该被接受的东西。


Obviously, not all types of bad behavior should be criminalized; but voters and customers should still shun them.	显然，并非所有类型的坏行为都应该罪行化； 但选民和顾客仍应该对它们敬而远之。


In an environment of transparency, accountability becomes all the more important.	在透明的环境中，问责就变得至关重要。


Many Americans – to their great good fortune – do not have the experience to understand how much the misdeeds of powerful people and institutions are known while nothing is done.	许多美国人——由于运气好——没有过切身体验过人们可能在多大程度上忍受权势人物和机构的恣意妄为而无动于衷。


There is a naïve sense in the US that if bad things are known, they will be stopped.	美国人有一种天真的看法——如果恶行为人所知，就会被制止。


But transparency can only increase awareness of problems; it is up to us to take action.	但透明度只能让更多的人看到问题； 会不会采取行动还要看我们自己。


Day Traders of Charity	慈善的日间交易者


LANGKAWI, MALAYSIA – An online charity organization is taking Silicon Valley by storm.	兰卡威，马来西亚—一家在线慈善组织正在像一阵旋风一样席卷硅谷。


Called Watsi, the charity allows users to read personal tales of medical woe in emerging markets and contribute up to the total amount needed to pay for a particular patient’s treatment.	这家名叫Watsi的慈善机构让用户阅读新兴市场的个人医疗悲剧，并贡献最多等于某个具体病人医疗费用的善款。


Many might say, “How nice!”	许多人会说：“这好极了！


But I say, “Hold the applause.”	”但我要说：“且慢鼓掌。 ”


The problem is not that Watsi is a bad service.	问题不在于Watsi不是好服务。


The problem is that it is good at what it does.	问题在于它擅长他所做的事情。


All the money raised goes directly to the individual whose care you are paying for.	所有筹集到的资金直接交到你所关心的哪个人手中。


(You can contribute separately if you want to support Watsi’s operations.)	（如果你想支持Watsi的运营，可以专门捐款。


There are strict processes and protections in place to ensure that the care goes only to the “deserving poor” (not their words, but that is the idea), rather than to just anyone.	）这些严格的程序和保护确保了看护只能由“应得的穷人”获得（Watsi并没有明说，但指导思想就是这样），而不是任何一个穷人。


There are safeguards to prevent expensive care from being given to someone who does not really need it.	有防范措施防止并不直接需要的人获得昂贵的看护。 并且一切都是透明的；


And everything is visible; all of Watsi’s financial records are accessible on a Google Transparency Document.	Watsi的所有财务记录都能通过谷歌透明资料（Google Transparency Document）查看。


Yes, the Internet allows people to connect – one to one – across cultures and distance.	是的，互联网让人们得以取得联系，跨越文化和距离的一对一的联系。


And it is good that people feel empathy, or at least sympathy, for those who are less fortunate.	勾起人们对不行之士的感同身受或至少是同情也不是坏事。


But the ability to solve immediate problems encourages a passive, money-heals-all approach.	但解决眼前问题的能力助长了消极的用钱解决一切的观点。


You see someone lying in a virtual ditch, you help him or her, and call it a good day.	你看到有人摔进了虚拟的沟里，你把他救上来，然后觉得这真是个好日子。


In this respect, Watsi resembles a day-trading site, where investors buy and sell stocks relentlessly, without helping to build the underlying businesses.	从这个角度看，Watsi就像是一个日内交易网站，投资者执着地买卖股票，而不去帮忙建立作为基础的企业。


The problem is broader than Watsi.	问题不只在于Watsi。


Even as it becomes easier to see and care for people lying injured on the side of the virtual highway, it becomes harder to perceive and easier to ignore the “road” conditions that caused their injuries – poor nutrition, poverty, inadequate prenatal care, corruption, diversion of resources, and the like.	即使看到虚拟高速公路另一头躺着受伤者并提供帮助更加容易，但导致他们手上的“路况”——营养不良、贫困、产前护理不足、腐败、资源转移等——却更不容易被看清、跟容易被忽略。


Like so many modern tools, Watsi encourages a short-term, emotional approach to the state of the world.	和许多现代工具一样，Watsi鼓励短期的、情感的观点看待世界的状态。


It is like looking through a telescope: a lot of detail, no perspective.	这就像是用望远镜观看，只有细节，没有整体。


It is not that we should feel nothing; but we should be encouraged to think more and to prevent the wound rather than pay for the Band-Aid.	并不是说我们应该视而不见。 但我们应该鼓励想得更多一些、想如何防止伤害，而不是掏钱为救治买单。


In a media culture that can deliver instant stardom and fickle trends, our attention shifts too rapidly to see the forest for the trees.	在传播浮躁追星新闻的媒体文化下，我们的注意力太快地转移到了树木上，忽略了森林。


It is this short-term approach that leads us to celebrate each overthrow of a dictator, rather than think about how to educate people to demand good government.	这一短视观点导致我们为每一位独裁者的倒台而欢呼，而不去思考如何教育人们要求更好的政府。


We are drawn to heartwarming stories of an understanding teacher who sees a student’s potential and helps her get into university, or a frequent diner who funds a kitchen worker’s dream to start his own restaurant.	我们为看到学生潜力、磅她进入大学的教师而感到温暖，因为频繁前来用餐只为支持厨房工人开餐馆之梦的食客而感到温暖。


But a good society is one in which you do not have to get lucky to avoid a life of poor education, unhealthy food, and dead-end jobs.	但好社会是这样的：你不必是幸运儿，受到的教育也不会差，吃的食物也不会不健康，做的工作也不会让你感到暗无天日。


And a good commentary is one that does more than just whine about other people’s shortsightedness.	而好的评论是这样的：不仅仅抱怨他人的短视。


So, what would work better?	那么，哪些方面可以改进？


The answer probably is not an academic paper about the inadequate diet or corrupt medical system in country X. But perhaps it would help to ground discussion of such issues in the context in which other people live.	答案或许不在于关于某国营养不足、医疗体系腐败的学术论文。 但这也许有助于引发将这些问题置于其他人生活的环境下进行讨论。


It is easy to think we understand someone’s distress, but most people (especially Americans) have no idea what life is really like in another country.	认为我们理解他人的痛苦很容易，但大部分人（特别是美国人）并不知道其他国家的真正生活是怎样的。


Indeed, instigating and supporting long-term change is a far more complicated undertaking than treating the casualties of broken systems.	事实上，推动和支持长期变化远比照看破产体系的受害者更复杂。


The fact that we can quantify so many things means that sometimes we abandon the challenges that are harder to measure – such as corruption, food quality, or education.	我们可以量或如此多的东西，这一事实意味着有时我们会放弃更难度量的挑战——如腐败、食品质量和教育。


Even as the Internet and services such as Watsi make the world seem smaller, they can obscure the reality of what is driving global developments.	即使互联网和Watsi等服务似乎让世界变得更小，但它们也会让是什么推动全球发展的现实变得更模糊。


Let’s invest in prenatal care, education, and transparency.	我们应该投资于产前看护、教育和透明度。


Let’s help people build their own societies.	我们应该帮助人们构建自己的社会。


Unfortunately, addressing the world’s most pressing problems is not as simple as setting up a Web site where foreigners can contribute to social improvements in some other country.	不幸的是，解决世界上最紧迫的问题并不像建立一个可以让外国人给别国的社会改善捐钱的网站那么简单。


So, if you lack the knowledge or standing to involve yourself in another country’s affairs, don’t do it.	那么，如果你缺少知识或立场加入另一个国家的事务中，就不要这么做。


Poverty, ignorance, poor nutrition, and inadequate health care exist almost everywhere; the path of least effort – and perhaps greatest effectiveness – may start at home.	贫困、无知、营养不良、医疗不足几乎到处都存在； 但最小努力路径（很有可能同时也是效力最强途径）是从国内开始。


A User’s Guide to Conferences	会议用户指南


DALLAS – Summer is conference season – a critical time for building brands, making connections, and shaping industries.	达拉斯——夏季是传统的会议季，也是品牌建设、关系建设、行业塑造的关键阶段。


Indeed, though people increasingly learn and interact online, we retain a fundamental need to engage in person.	事实上，尽管在线学习互动的人越来越多，但面对面接触依然是我们最基本的需求。


At conferences, such engagement is guided by a few basic principles.	开会期间人与人的接触必须遵守若干基本原则。


Understanding them – being “conference literate” – is critical to making the most of a conference, whether as an organizer, speaker, or attendee.	无论是会议的组织者、发言人还是参与者，了解这些原则——“把握会议文化”对充分利用会议所起的作用至关重要。


Perhaps the most important aspect of a conference is its purposes, which all participants should identify for themselves.	所有与会者都应该自己找到会议最重要的层面——会议目的。


An individual or organization may attend a conference to understand the future of bottled water, to find procurement managers who buy bottled water, or even to disrupt the bottled-water market with water-filtration systems.	个人或机构可以了解瓶装水的发展前景、结识瓶装水的采购经理、甚至是用过滤系统搅乱瓶装水的市场秩序。


A speaker may want to promote his or her employer, or find a new one.	发言人可能想要宣传自己的雇主，或者寻找新的就职机构。


Even the organizers can have purposes beyond direct profit.	就连主办方也可能有直接利润以外的其他目的。


For example, the conference could be held to give legitimacy to a corresponding trade show, where the main sources of revenue are sponsorships and rental of floor space.	比方说，会议目的可以是举办相关的贸易展览，此时收入主要来源于赞助及租赁面积。


Or it could be intended to impress the organizer’s clients, thereby generating longer-term revenue.	此外也可以想给客户留下好的印象，以谋求今后的长期收入。


Or it could be a service to an organization’s members or to a venture capitalist’s portfolio companies.	此外还可以为机构成员或风险资本的投资组合企业提供服务。


A broadcast media company recently held a conference largely for its reporters and television anchors, in order to generate a large amount of video content at once, in front of a live audience.	某广播传媒公司最近主要为记者和电视主播举办了一次会议，目的是在现场观众面前即时制作大量的视频节目。


While the audience comprised mostly college students, the speakers were industry luminaries, each of whom would have taken a week or two to schedule.	虽然观众以在校大学生为主，但发言人却普遍是需要提前一两个礼拜预约才能到场的业内知名人士。


The distinction between the organizer’s purpose and business model is critical.	必须分清主办者的目的及其商业模式。


There are two primary business models for conferences: charge attendees to pay the speakers (with a margin for the organizers), or charge sponsors for the right to select the speakers and, to some extent, control the content.	会议的商业模式主要有两种：向与会者收费支付给发言人（主办机构从中赚取一定利润），或者让主办者交钱选择发言人，从而在某种程度上对会议内容进行控制。


The concept of “native advertising” (paid advertising masquerading as editorial content) is distressingly applicable at sponsored events.	“原生广告” （即伪装成评论内容的付费广告）理念非常适合主办会议。


Of course, many conferences combine the two models.	当然，许多会议都混合了这两种模式。


But the balance must be handled delicately to ensure that attendees who have paid are not put off by aggressive marketing.	但必须谨慎行事以确保主动营销不会吓跑付过费的与会者。


Given that the content is being created in real time, this can be challenging; a speaker may unexpectedly use the stage to promote a product, in which case he or she would probably not be invited back.	鉴于会议内容往往要临场确定，要确保有限度营销确实存在一定难度； 发言人可能会出人意料地利用讲台宣传某种产品，这么做可能导致他/她被从今后的邀请名单上排除。


(Just as columnists may promote themselves or some other party’s offering.)	（比如专栏作家可能借此机会宣传自己或第三方所提供的内容。 ）


The third model – the most effective and rewarding in my view – resembles large workshops, with both speakers and audience members contributing to the conversation.	我个人认为最有效也最有意义的第三种模式酷似大型研讨会，发言人和听众双方都积极参与其中。


At such events, the promise that participants will learn something that they could not learn elsewhere and meet people they want to know is sufficiently credible to make the audience willing to pay and to motivate the speakers to join for free.	与会者在此类活动中能学到别处学不到的东西并与希望结识的人见面，这足以让听众愿意付费，发言人愿意免费参与。


These events bring together market leaders, who in real-time discussion among themselves and with the audience generate a new understating of their industry’s evolution, guided by a moderator who provokes the silent and silences the needlessly provocative.	此类活动让市场领袖汇聚一堂展开实时讨论和听众互动，从而对行业发展达成新的认识。 此类会议往往由主持人负责打破沉默及控制不必要的言论挑衅。


Even within the traditional conference structure, diversity of perspectives is critical.	观点的多样性即使在传统的会议构架内也同样至关重要。


For example, ten years ago I took over a moribund event about anti-spyware tools.	比方说，10年前我接手过一个奄奄一息的反间谍软件工具活动。


“So where are the spyware speakers?”	我问自己的问题是，“到哪里去找间谍软件的发言人？


I asked.	”


Oh, they're evil, was the reply.	哦，答案是他们身上有邪恶的因素。


So I went about getting four spyware speakers, with careful coaxing and a few promises about the limits of what I would ask in public.	因此我找到四位间谍软件发言人，小心地劝诱并承诺当众提问会遵守一定的限度。


In the end, the event was amazing.	最后，那次活动大获成功。


We assembled a diverse set of speakers, including four spyware makers, though we politely called their products “adware” on stage; an official from the US Federal Trade Commission; several anti-spyware vendors; and a well-known spyware researcher.	我们组织了方方面面的发言人，包括四位间谍软件提供商，但在台上我们礼貌地将他们的产品称为“广告软件”； 一名美国联邦贸易委员会官员；


Moreover, we did not simply put the adware execs on a single panel to explain themselves; we integrated them into different panels.	此外，我们并没有把广告软件厂商管理者集中到一组让他们去做解释工作； 我们把他们编入了不同的讨论组。


The audience – including many security companies and also a lawyer from the NY State Attorney General's office – took active part.	听众中包括众多安全企业和一名来自纽约州总检察长办公室的律师——他们都积极地参与了讨论活动。


The conference changed a lot of people’s perceptions of themselves and their enemies.	会议改变了许多人对自己和对敌人的看法。


Moreover, by highlighting that a spyware company, just like any other, is based on a business model, it implied that the best way to attack it may be to target the advertisers who turn a blind eye to where their ads are running.	此外，会议凸显了间谍软件企业就像其他任何企业一样基于某种商业模式，这意味着打击间谍软件的最好办法可能是对准那些对自己广告出现在哪里满不在乎的广告客户。


To some extent, that has occurred, though the problem of rogue software – and inattentive advertisers – persists.	在某种程度上我们达到了这个目的，虽然到现在依然存在流氓软件和粗心的广告客户。


At another remarkable conference a quarter-century ago, the leaders of revenue management in the airline industry explained their field to people involved with hotels, sports clubs, and other time-based businesses.	四分之一世纪前举办的另一次成功会议上，航空业收入管理负责人向酒店、体育俱乐部、以及其他季节性企业解释自己的业务。


Much of today’s time-based pricing can be traced back to the topics that were explained and explored at that event.	今天的许多季节性定价都可以回溯到那次会议上解释和探讨的相关题目。


Simply put, the best conferences help a community to define and understand itself.	简言之，好的会议能帮助团体了解并找准自己的定位。


The market segments are defined and clarified.	他们可以借此确定细分市场。


Customers’ needs and threats to vendors are made visible.	客户对厂商的需求和威胁都清晰可见。


And participants, speakers and organizers alike are eager for the next gathering.	与会者、发言人和主办者都同样期待下一次聚会。


The Facebook Furor	对Facebook的激愤


AMSTERDAM – There has been a lot of fuss lately about the psychological experiment that Facebook conducted on nearly 700,000 of its users.	阿姆斯特丹——最近Facebook对其近700,000用户进行的心理实验已经引发了强烈的反响。


In order to gauge how people’s Facebook “News Feeds” affect their moods, the company temporarily implemented a new algorithm to display slightly more positive messages to some users, and slightly gloomier ones to others.	为衡量Facebook“新消息”如何影响用户情绪，该公司临时设计了一种新算法，对部分用户显示相对积极的信息，而对另一部分用户则相反。


As it turns out, people’s posts shifted to reflect the tone of their friends’ posts.	事实证明，人们发帖的语气受到了朋友帖子的影响。


But the furor missed some of the most interesting questions, focusing (as usual) on Facebook’s tone-deafness (as usual).	但人们在愤怒之余却遗漏了某些最有趣的问题，而（像往常一样）只集中在Facebook不照顾人们情绪这一点上。


Nobody seemed interested in the obvious question of whether the findings reflected a genuine shift in mood, or simply a desire – conscious or unconscious – to fit in.	人们似乎对明显的问题并不在意，那就是结果是反应了真实的情绪改变，抑或只是有意无意想要融入朋友圈的愿望。


What has people outraged is the notion that Facebook is manipulating its unwitting users to advance its own agenda, with many citing the secrecy surrounding the research to illustrate the company’s misconduct (though the company published the results with no apparent sense of unease).	让人们愤怒的是Facebook利用不知情的用户来推进自己的计划，很多人都列举了研究的保密性来证明公司的行为不当（虽然公司发布结果时并没有明显不安的感觉）。


But, though Facebook’s lack of transparency is certainly disconcerting – as is its deafness to its users’ concerns – these complaints miss the point.	但尽管Facebook缺乏透明度——且无视客户的担忧——肯定令人不安，但所有这些投诉都有些不得要领。


Of course Facebook is manipulating its users – just like all companies that use advertising to induce consumers to crave a double cheeseburger, a sexy dress, or a sexy partner.	当然Facebook的确在利用自己的用户——这一点与做广告诱导消费者渴望双层吉士汉堡、性感连衣裙或者性感伴侣的企业并没有什么不同。


Whether it is done through targeted advertisements based on a search history or billboards on a public highway, the (intended) result is the same.	无论通过基于搜索历史的定向广告还是高速路边的广告牌，企业（想要达到的）效果都没有什么不同。


A century ago, this might have been big news.	一个世纪以前，这或许算得上轰动性新闻。


Today, it is mundane.	但今天这种状况已经非常普通。


Yet people continue to react to explicit revelations of such manipulation with shock and outrage.	但人们仍然以震惊和愤怒来回应明确爆出的操纵丑闻。


The bigger problem is the modern paradox of choice.	更突出的问题是现代选择悖论。


Today, people are constantly presented with choices – and also with the option to avoid them, under the guise of speed or convenience.	今天，人们需要不断做出选择——同时也面临着打着速度和方便的幌子避免选择的可能性。


While the power to make one’s own choices is appealing in theory, the sheer number of options can be exhausting and disorienting – not least because of the pressure to make the “right” choice.	虽然理论上自主选择权有吸引力，但单是选项数量之多就足以令人头昏脑胀、筋疲力尽——尤其还面临着压力需要做出“正确”的选择。


As Barry Schwartz has pointed out, choices are an opportunity for regret.	巴里·施瓦茨就曾经指出，选择为后悔创造了可能性。


When forces beyond our control make us unhappy, at least we do not feel angry with ourselves for putting ourselves in that position.	当无法控制的力量导致我们不快乐时，我们至少不会为让自己陷入那样的境地而对自己感到气愤。


The logical response to this pressure is to delegate some decisions to others.	面对压力的合理对策是将某些决定权委托给他人。


But, when reminded of how others are shaping our lives, we become indignant, calling it “creepy” and a violation of our free will.	但当有人提醒我们别人在决定我们的生活时，我们又变得异常愤怒，称之为“令人毛骨悚然”并违反我们的自由意志。


Users let Google filter the deluge of emails they receive daily, but they are incensed when Google weeds out an important message.	用户任由谷歌过滤每天收到的大量邮件，却在谷歌过滤掉重要信息时表现得异常愤怒。


Likewise, when Facebook responds to complaints that users cannot keep track of all of their friends’ posts, it develops an algorithm to show users only the most relevant.	同样，当Facebook接到用户无法跟踪所有朋友帖子的投诉时，他们研发出某种算法，仅把最有用的显示给用户。


But what qualifies a post as “relevant”?	但究竟什么样的帖子才算是“有用”？


Twitter is now trying to solve the same problem.	面临同样问题的还有Twitter。


Some have said that the choices that Facebook makes for its users could endanger its users’ mental health.	有人说Facebook替用户选择可能危及用户的心理健康。 但无法给予问题学生必要关注的劳累过度的高中老师；


But so can an overworked high-school teacher who cannot dedicate the needed energy to troubled students; magazines that promote unrealistic body images; sermons from clergy who believe that God does not forgive everyone; or even a stranger acting rudely on a train.	宣传不切实际体型的杂志； 认定上帝不会宽恕所有人的布道的神职人员；


All of these actors have their own ideas and motivations, and they are all manipulating our perspectives – and our moods – every day.	甚至是在火车上举止粗鲁的陌生人都可能发挥同样的作用。 上述各方具有各自的想法和动机，并且每时每刻都在影响我们的情绪和看法。


Of course, with advertising, the manipulation is particularly overt.	当然，广告的影响是显而易见的。


But marketers also regularly test users’ emotional reactions to less explicit aspects of their products, from the color of their packaging or their placement in the store to their celebrity spokesperson.	但营销人员也定期测试用户对其产品相对隐性方面的情绪反应，从包装颜色或摆放位置到聘请的明星代言人。


And they lure consumers into paying more by offering an over-priced option that makes anything less expensive seem reasonable.	他们通过推出一款高价产品让其他产品显得相对便宜而诱使消费者掏更多钱购物。


Reading about Kim Kardashian’s new dress may make you want to buy the dress, but does it also make you feel ugly?	看到金·卡戴珊的新裙子可能让你想买这条裙子，但会不会也让你觉得自己不够好看？


If you’re a tech entrepreneur, you may aspire to be Marc Andreessen, but reading about him may also make you feel inadequate – especially if you are female.	高科技企业家可能想成为马克·安德森，但了解安德森的故事也可能让你觉得自己不够好——尤其如果你是女性的话。


Facebook inadvertently raised this issue of emotional manipulation and unintended consequences indirectly and in one context, by being secretive about its research and not giving people the chance to opt out beforehand.	Facebook无意中间接提出了这个情绪操纵和出乎意料的后果的问题，因为他们对研究行为保密，没有给人们机会事先选择退出。


(Now, that would have been a smart choice!)	（现在，这可能是个明智的选择！ ）


But, in the end, there is no problem to be solved – or even an issue that concerns Facebook in particular.	但最后没有什么问题非解决不可——甚至是特别涉及到Facebook。


What we are seeing is a fundamental improvement in our ability to discover the short-term and long-term impact of our actions and those of others.	我们所面对的是对自身和他人行为（全球变暖？ ）长短期影响理解能力的根本性提高。


(Global warming, anyone?) As our ability to measure things and detect the impact of any change improves – in short, as we get better at empirical research – we need to consider what kind of responsibility is entailed by the knowledge that we gain.	随着我们衡量事物和发现变化影响能力的提高——简言之，随着我们实证研究能力的提高——我们需要思考哪些责任是我们的研究成果需要承担的。


The Private Sector’s Privacy Puzzle	私人部门的私隐难题


NEW YORK – Why is privacy such a challenge for private companies?	发自纽约——私隐为何对私人企业如此具有挑战性？


(Governments have their own problems, but that is another story.) Beyond privacy laws, companies must cope with customers with varying expectations, competitors with varying levels of integrity, and the various relationships that form the context of data exchange.	（政府也有这方面的问题，但性质不同）在相关私隐法规之外，企业必须与拥有不同预期的顾客打交道，与诚信程度参差不齐的对手竞争，还有就是与构成数据交换大环境的各类关系打交道。


Privacy relates not only to who knows how much about us, but also to how we feel about it.	私隐不仅是关于究竟谁知道我们多少东西，也与我们对此的观感有关。


Many “privacy” concerns are based on concrete interests, such as preserving financial security or obscuring information that could compromise one’s employment or ability to qualify for affordable health insurance.	许多对“私隐”的关注其实是基于切实的利益考虑，比如保护财务安全或者掩盖一些可能对个人就业或申请廉价健康保险不利的信息。


But there is also a more personal aspect: the tension between the desire to be known and the desire to protect one’s secrets, whether insidious, embarrassing, or intimate.	但也有一个更为个人的方面：渴望被别人认识和希望保护自身秘密（无论是阴险的，尴尬的或私密的）之间的纠结关系


When the co-founder of a company in which I invested mentioned to me that a famous person I happen to know had signed up for the service, our first reaction was that I should reach out to him with a friendly note.	当我投资过的一个企业的联合创始人跟我提到某个我恰好认识的人也购买了公司的服务，我们的第一反应是我应该给他发一个祝贺信息。


But then I began to wonder whether he would be comfortable to hear that others knew of his use of the service (though it is a non-edgy business tool).	但随后我开始担心当他知道自己使用某项服务的事（虽然该商业服务不算特别前沿）被别人知道后会不会觉得不舒服。


Of course, he trusted the company enough to grant it technical access to his business data, which the company’s terms of service assure will not be viewed or used.	当然，他足够信任该企业，所以让后者能在技术上获取自己公司的营业数据，而企业的服务条款也声明这些数据不会被外人看到或使用。


Would the fact that others knew his identity as a user undermine that trust?	那如果让其他人知道了他的用户身份会不会削弱这种信任？


As it happens, the company uses a tool called Intercom, which allows any website operator to find out about its customers by their email address, Facebook ID, or whatever they use to sign in.	碰巧，该公司使用了一个叫“Intercom”的工具，可以让任何网络操作者通过邮箱地址，脸书用户名或者其他任何登陆名来查询其用户。


There are many such “customer relationship” services, which rely on data sources that match usernames and email addresses using unspecified means.	许多这类“消费者关系维护”服务都依赖于用未明确说明的方式核对用户名和邮箱的数据源。


Most people are probably not aware of these practices – though, at this point, most would not likely be shocked by the information. (I, for one, was only somewhat surprised – about as much as I was to learn about the US National Security Agency’s far-reaching data collection.)	大多数人可能没有意识到这些操作——虽然此刻大多数人也不会对此表示震惊（比如我在知道美国国家安全局收集的数据竟然如此私密时也只是略显惊讶）。


Some of Intercom’s customers want to know how many Twitter followers their users have, to determine their potential value as “influencers.”	有些Intercom的客户希望知道他们自己的使用者们究竟有多少个推特粉丝，以便确定这些人是否是有价值的“意见领袖”。


Once a company identifies which users have the most influence – well-known bloggers, for example – it may offer them better treatment, in the hope that they will recommend the service.	一旦一个企业定义出哪个用户最具影响力——比如知名博主——他们就会相应提高其待遇。


Website startups may even want to check their users’ profiles on the Angel List database of angel investors, viewing them as a potential source of financing.	网络新企业甚至希望在“Angel List”天使投资人数据库里查找其使用者的介绍，并将其视为潜在资金来源。


Others might use services such as Intercom to gain insight into their users’ interests – from their preferences in music to their favorite hobbies – in order to offer more personalized service.	其他人可能使用Intercom这类服务来深入了解其用户的喜好——从喜欢听哪类音乐到个人嗜好——以便提供更为个性化的服务。


Indeed, many online services now offer to link users with their Facebook friends or LinkedIn contacts, or recommend activities or restaurants based on past behavior or current location.	事实上，许多在线服务如今都可以让用户连接其脸书好友或领英账号，或者根据用户的过往行为或目前位置推荐相关活动或餐厅。


Some people do not want this kind of attention, whether because they are already well-known personalities trying to fend off adoring fans or mooches, or simply because they are uncomfortable with unknown entities knowing so much about them.	有些人不愿意受到这样的关注，不管他们是试图躲避粉丝或好事者纠缠的名人，或仅仅是不乐意让自己不知道的机构个人过度了解自身信息的人。


But, for many ordinary users, such recognition can be valuable and appreciated, even if it is not accompanied by special gifts or benefits.	但对于许多普通用户来说，即便并未附带特殊礼物或者好处，这类识别也是有价值和受欢迎的。


The question is how to distinguish between the two groups.	而问题在于如何区分这两种人。


The answer should be simple.	答案应该非常简单。


Ask the customer: “How may we use the information you share with us, or that we receive from services like Intercom?”	去询问消费者：“我们应该如何使用您和我们分享或者通过Intercom这类服务获取的信息？


The problem is that most companies prefer not to raise this issue; they would rather let sleeping dogs lie.	”但绝大多数企业都不愿意提这件事； 对它们来说这有点没事找事。


What these companies must recognize is that over time they may not be able to survive a steady stream of privacy gaffes – whether the result of their own mistakes or guilt by association – and constantly changing rules. (In this sense, Facebook is a rare exception.)	而这些企业必须意识到随着时间的推移它们可能会被一大堆私隐丑闻——不管是出于自身失误还是受到牵连——以及不断改变的规则所击倒（在这方面脸书是个罕见的例子）。


While it may require a little more effort and awkwardness to find out what customers want, companies that do so in a straightforward and open way will benefit in the long run.	虽然对客户需求的了解将需要多做一点工作并经历一些尴尬，但选择直接开诚布公地去咨询客户的企业将得到长远获利。


To be sure, such openness carries some risks.	无可否认，这些直截了当的做法也存在着风险。


For example, some people, alerted to the amount of information that is being collected about them, may refrain from using the service.	例如有些人对所需收集的信息量有所戒备，因此不愿使用这些服务。


For them, recognition from people may be okay – even desirable – but recognition by computers is creepy and unfulfilling.	对他们来说，被周围的人们认出来没有问题，甚至是很他们一直渴望的事，但被电脑识别出来就有点令人不寒而栗且不开心了。


The movie Her tells the story of a man whose job – composing letters for people who cannot write their own – will soon be automated by a new generation of operating systems capable of learning so quickly and comprehensively that they quickly surpass a single human in terms of accumulated knowledge.	电影《Her(云端情人)》就讲述了一个专业为那些无法亲笔写信的人撰写信件的人将很快被新一代的操作系统所取代，因为这个系统的学习能力是如此迅速和全面，能在知识积累方面迅速超越人类。


The film’s protagonist soon falls in love with one of these operating systems.	剧中的主角（写信者）很快与这些系统的其中之一堕入爱河。


“She” loves him, too – as well as 640 more of the 8,316 people with whom she works.	而“她”也爱他——同时也爱着与其打交道的另外8316个人中的640个。


He is not satisfied with that level of shared attention, especially given how intimately she knows him.	主角不喜欢这种一心多用的关系，尤其考虑到她对他的极端熟悉。


The computer is human-like enough to win his love, but cannot fulfill the relevant expectations.	这个电脑的拟人程度足以赢得主角的爱，但却无法满足由此产生的预期。


The challenge is thus to build systems that feel appropriately personal, without making users feel violated or uncomfortable.	因此挑战就在于如何构建一个既让人感觉恰到好处地个性化，也不致让用户感觉受侵犯或不适的系统。


At the same time, they should not be presented as being more human than they are. Otherwise, users’ expectations will become disconnected from what the company can deliver.	与此同时，这些系统也不应被宣传得比其实际上更为拟人，不然用户的预期就会与企业能提供的服务发生割裂。


But there is one more complication: Some people seek “privacy” from themselves.	但还有另一个复杂之处：有些人不愿面对自身的“私隐”。


These are the kind of people who sport comb-overs, insisting to everyone – including themselves – that they are not balding.	有些人想方设法把两侧头发梳到头顶，坚持向所有人——包括自身——表现自己没有秃顶。


A scale salesman once told me that many people, despite being willing to share their weight with a doctor, do not want to look at the precise numbers themselves.	一个体重秤产品的推销员曾告诉我说虽然有些人愿意让医生称量自己的体重，但却不愿去看具体的数字。


The concreteness of the data scares them.	这些现实的数据让他们感到害怕。


Another example: To commemorate Facebook’s ten-year anniversary, Time, Inc. offered to assess people’s newsfeeds to estimate how much time they had wasted on the site.	另一个例子：为纪念脸书面世十周年，《时代》杂志向人们提供了一个网页插件去估算自己总共在这个网页上浪费了多少时间。


While many were curious, I am sure many preferred not to face the facts.	有很多人对此感到好奇，但我确信也有许多人是不愿面对这一事实的。


Privacy is personal.	私隐是个人的。


By using a service, a person effectively enters into a relationship with its provider.	但在使用某项服务时，一个人实际上是与服务的提供者构建了某种关系。


Service providers should understand that their users will expect the transparency, respect, and recognition that are fundamental to any relationship.	而服务提供者也应该意识到，正如任何关系那样，用户也希望他们之间的关系能实现纯净透明，互相尊重和互相认可。


Measure for Mismeasure	衡量误量


ISTANBUL – I recently used Uber (an online service for ordering a car and driver) and did not have the usual pleasant experience.	伊斯坦布尔—我最近用了Uber（在线预订汽车和司机的服务），体验没有通常那么舒服。


The driver did not know the area, and, worse, he did not follow his navigator’s instructions, turning left instead of right.	司机对路况不熟，更糟糕的是，他还不听导航仪的，明明应该向左转却向右转。


When Uber asked me, as usual, to rate the driver, I did not hesitate to give him two out of five.	当Uber如往常一样要我给司机评分时，我毫不犹豫地打了两分（满分五分）。


I was not being vindictive; I wanted to save other passengers from an unpleasant experience, and I hoped that maybe feedback would encourage him to improve or find another line of work.	我并不是心怀怨恨； 我只是想别让其他乘客也有这么差的体验，我也希望这样的反馈能鼓励他改善工作或换个工作。


But what does two out of five mean?	但两分意味着什么？


It obviously means worse than average, which would be three.	这显然意味着低于平均分（三分）。


But, while I would always pick an average driver over a driver with a rating of two, given the choice between a two driver and a blind pick, I might pick the two, because the fear of someone even worse would keep me from taking a risk.	但是，尽管我总是会选平均水平的司机而不是两分水平的司机，但由于在选择两分司机和瞎选之间，我还是会选择两分司机，因为害怕选到更差的司机让我不会选择冒险。


This is a well-known phenomenon known as loss aversion: the risk of a one outweighs the hope of a five.	这一众所周知的现象叫做风险规避——选到一分的风险压倒了选到五分的希望。


Just last week, I was engaged in ranking proposals for the Knight News Challenge; to simplify things, they had a three-point ranking: three for yes, two for consider, one for reject.	就在上周，我参与了骑士新闻挑战赛（Knight News Challenge）作品的打分； 简单说，这是一个三分制体系：三分表示肯定，两分表示保留意见，一分表示否定。


The idea was to pick the easy winners, reject the losers, and focus on distinguishing among the maybes.	其中的思路是选择赢家，淘汰输家，并集中精力区别可上可下者。


That makes sense in the context of focusing attention where a decision is needed.	这有助于将注意力集中于需要做决定之处。


Ranking exercises, like the things they rank, are not all the same; different approaches fit different situations.	打分操作与被打分的东西一样，不是一成不变的； 不同的方法适合不同的情形。


We live in a world where everything is being rated, whether you are a professional judge or an individual trying to make sense of modern life.	在我们生活的世界中，一切都在被打分，不管你是职业法官还是试图弄清现代生活的个人。


Indeed, while we rate the Uber drivers, they are rating us.	事实上，在我们为Uber司机打分的同时，他们也在为我们打分。


Consider a business plan or a foundation grant proposal.	以争取基金的商业计划为例。 一份计划位列十项计划的第九位，另一份计划位列20项计划的第八位；


One proposal might be ranked nine out of ten, while another is eight out of 20; the first is pretty good but with limited upside, while the second is not so good, but has the potential to be great.	签一份计划很棒，但上升空间有限； 后一项计划没有那么棒，但有卓越的潜质。


The two cannot really be compared: One is a safe choice, but not likely to have a huge impact; the other is riskier, but ultimately may be more worthwhile.	这两项计划其实并不可比：一项是安全的选择，但不可能产生巨大影响； 另一项风险较大，但最终可能更值得。


If you are a customer buying a product that should work, you want the nine out of ten; if you are a venture capitalist who thinks she can add value, you want the eight out of 20.	如果你是购买理应有效果的产品的顾客，你会想要第九名（共十名）的计划； 如果你是自认为能增加价值的风险资本家，你会想要第八名（共二十名）。


Helping people to think clearly about these numbers is important.	帮助人们清醒地思考这些数字十分重要。


People want simplicity, yet at the same time, in a world of targeted marketing, customization, and precision, in which vendors struggle to give consumers exactly what they want, people can help themselves by thinking clearly and specifying their preferences.	人们希望简化，但与此同时，在一个定向营销、定制化和精确化的世界，商家竭尽全力向顾客提供正中需求的产品，人们可以通过清醒思考和偏好具体化给自己赢得好处。


Imagine that you have cancer.	想象你得了癌症。


The doctor says that you probably have two years to live, or a 50% expected improvement in “survival” (medical terminology for living another five years) if you undergo chemotherapy.	医生说你还有两年可活，如果采取化疗，可能将“生存期”（医学术语，意思是多活五年）延长50%。


In other words, you can have two years of gradual decline with some pain, or three years of nauseating treatments, “chemo brain,” loss of hair, and diminished dignity.	换句话说，你可以选择带着些许痛苦让生命在两年的时间里逐渐凋零，也可以选择三年令人作呕的治疗、“化疗脑”、掉头发和失去生命尊严。


If you think those numbers are not quite comparable, you are right; that is part of the problem.	如果你觉得这些数字并不那么具有可比性，那就对了； 这就是部分问题所在。


(And the numbers may be based on a limited sample of people who do not quite resemble you.)	（且这些数字可能是基于与你并不十分相似的有限人群样本得出的。


But, while the timing is uncertain, the trade-offs are pretty clear.	）但是，尽管时机上有不确定性，其中的权衡还是十分明确的。


What you really want, of course, is a cure, not merely a minimal extension of life expectancy, but nothing is certain.	当然，你真正需要的是治愈，而不是略微提高预期寿命，但这些都是不确定的。


The choice sounds easy, but then perhaps you just want to survive to see your daughter graduate, or your son get married.	选择看起来很容易，但也许你只想活着看到你女儿毕业或儿子结婚。


It would be nice to understand those numbers better.	更好的理解这些数字是大有裨益的。


Even on the population level, we are facing some of the same complexities at HICCup (the Health Initiative Coordinating Council), a startup that I founded.	即使在人口层面，HICCup（健康计划协调委员会，我成立的一个创业组织）也面临着同样的复杂性。


How do you measure health improvement?	如何衡量健康改善？


It is not, as one benighted analyst suggested, “A 20% improvement (reduction) in heart attacks plus a 30% improvement (reduction) in diabetes incidence equals a 50% improvement.”	某位愚昧的分析师说：“20%的心脏病改善（减少）加上30%的糖尿病发病率改善（减少）等于50%的改善。 ”这是不对的。


You need to average the improvements to get a figure somewhere between 20% and 30%.	你应该将两种改善平均化，得到一个在20%和30%之间的数字。


But how do you weight diabetes versus heart attacks, life extension versus quality of life?	但你如何在糖尿病和心脏病之间、寿命延长和生活质量之间分配权重？


There is also, in any sector, the issue of what the data really mean.	这也是任何部门都摆脱不了的数据的真实含义问题。


One of my favorite (sad) stories concerns consumer credit ratings in Russia.	我最喜欢的一个（悲剧）故事是关于俄罗斯消费者信用评分的。


A retail banker once told me that in making credit decisions in Russia, his analysts had faced a shortage of data and had assumed that a criminal record would be one easy way to weed out the bad eggs.	一位零售银行家曾告诉我，在做俄罗斯信用决策时，他的分析师面临数据短缺的问题，只好假设犯罪记录是挑出坏蛋的简便方式。


But when the bank ran the numbers, they discovered that although about half of the people applying for low-end, high-interest-rate credit had a police record, this did not seem to reflect on payment outcomes.	但在该银行处理数字时，他们发现，尽管大约一半申请低端高息信用者具有警方记录，但这似乎并不反映在偿还结果上。


I suspect the reason was that the people with no police record were the middle 50%.	我怀疑原因在于没有警方记录者是居中的50%。


At the bottom were 25% who had a police record for some kind of bad behavior.	最差的25%具有坏行为的警方记录。


At the top were 25% who had a police record for exceptionally good behavior, like refusing to pay bribes or to overlook corruption.	最好的25%具有卓越好行为的警方记录，比如拒绝贿赂、拒绝腐败等。


The moral of this story is that numbers do not tell us everything.	这个故事告诉我们，数字并不会告诉我们一切。


Do we end up focusing on price because we can measure it, to the exclusion of other things that matter?	我们最终专注于价格是因为我们可以衡量它，排除其他作用因素吗？


This phenomenon has rendered the airline business largely unprofitable – and customers increasingly unhappy.	这一现象让大部分航空公司处于亏损状态——顾客越来越不满意。


Quality used to be included in the price of a ticket; now, with surcharges for seat selection, meals, and the like, customers are charged for it separately.	质量曾经被包括在机票的价格中； 如今，质量以选座、选餐等各种附加费用单独收费。


In short, the paradox of choice (as elegantly described in an eponymous book by Barry Schwartz) is that too many choices confuse us and raise the possibility of regret; how can we be sure that we are getting just what we want, and that something else would not be better?	简言之，选择的悖论（如巴里·施瓦茨（Barry Schwartz）在同名书中精彩描述的）在于太多的选择混淆了我们，让我们后悔； 我们如何肯定我们得到的正是我们想要的，胜过其他所有东西？


Or it may be that the greatest happiness of all comes from not having to worry about stuff like this.	或者，说到底，最大的幸福来自不再担心这一问题。


The Great Global Bazaar	全球大巴扎


NEW YORK – I have had the same apartment in New York City for almost 40 years but have actually lived in it for less than half of that time, owing to a busy travel schedule.	纽约—我拥有纽约市的一套公寓已近四十年，但我实际住在其中的日子还不到一半，因为我的旅行日程十分繁忙。


I enjoy it; my experiences abroad have taught me the importance of an open mind and have given me a willingness to wander off the beaten path – not only to keep life interesting, but also to understand in a meaningful way that things do not look the same from every vantage point.	我很享受这样； 我的海外经验让我知道保持开放思维的重要性，也让我愿意不走寻常路——不但是为了保持生活情趣，也是为了以一种有意义的方式理解，从不同角度看待事物会得到不同结论。


The most interesting lessons often lie in the mundane – those aspects of everyday life that locals take for granted and tourists tend to overlook.	最有趣的教益往往来自平凡的角度——那些本地人习以为常而旅客常常忽略的日常生活角度。


For example, at my Western hotel in South Korea there was a pictogram alongside the toilet explaining how to use it properly – that is, to sit on the seat, rather than crouching over the bowl, as one would on a traditional South Korean toilet.	比如，在韩国的西式饭店，你会看到厕所贴着使用说明——坐在抽水马桶上，而不是像使用传统韩国厕所那样蹲着。


In 1989, during a trip to Estonia – then still a part of the Soviet Union – I asked my interpreter, a moonlighting dentist, to take me to her dental clinic.	1989年，在爱沙尼亚之旅中（当时爱沙尼亚仍是苏联的一部分），我要的翻译——一位兼职牙医带我去她的牙科诊所。


Beyond getting a glimpse of the equipment – old and sickly green – I learned that my interpreter and her colleagues were augmenting their state salaries with direct (and much higher) payments from Finnish dental tourists.	除了窥见设备——苍绿色的老旧器械之外，我还了解到她和她的同事们除了国家给的薪水，还有来自芬兰治牙旅客的直接支付收入（通常比正式薪水高得多）。


When they had saved enough money, they explained, they would purchase new equipment and launch their own practice.	他们解释说，存够了钱就准备购置新设备当个体户。


My dentist-guide also described her work spreading “sanitary propaganda” – that is, visiting local grade schools to teach children how to brush their teeth.	我的牙医导游还描述了她的“卫生宣传”工作——即去本地小学指导孩子们如何刷牙。


But, she noted, many could not even afford toothbrushes.	但是，她指出，许多孩子根本买不起牙刷。


I had had no idea that the tin of dental floss in my pocket – which I quickly handed over – was so valuable.	我丝毫不知道，我兜里的这盒牙线——没几天好用——是这么值钱。


Around the same time, while sitting in a government office in Moscow, I gained another small but powerful insight.	大约在差不多的时候，在莫斯科政府办公室，我获得了另一个很小但深刻的洞见。


When the phone rang, no one moved – an unnerving response to an American, for whom a ringing phone demands an immediate reaction in anticipation of an opportunity.	当电话响起时，没有人动身——对美国人来说，这样的反应让人感到紧张，因为在美国，电话铃声响起很可能意味着机会来临，你必须马上去接。


When I asked about it, the employees explained what to them was obvious: “People call offices only about problems.”	当我就此提出疑问时，政府雇员解释说——这对他们来说是理所当然的——“人们只有有问题了才会打电话来。


Solving problems, they evidently believed, was not part of their job.	”他们显然认为，解决问题不是他们的工作职责。


Late communism was a strange time indeed.	共产主义晚期确实是一段奇怪的时期。


A Hungarian friend who worked in a Budapest hotel during that period described an experience that surprised even him.	在这一时期工作于布达佩斯一家饭店的匈牙利朋友向我描述了一次令他也感到惊奇不已的体验。


When asked to take several bottles of water to a room that he had not previously known existed, he found a group of men wearing headsets, listening to what was happening in the other rooms.	他被要求将几瓶水拿到他此前不知道存在的房间，结果他看到了一群戴耳机的人正在听其他房间里发生着什么。


More recently, in 2008, I took a weekend visit to Baku, Azerbaijan, the hometown of my friend and travel companion Tatyana Kanzevali – a former chess champion who had often played against Garry Kasparov while he, too, was growing up in Baku.	更近一些，在2008年，我用一个周末前往我的一位朋友兼旅伴塔特亚纳·坎泽瓦利（Tatyana Kanzevali）的故乡阿塞拜疆巴库（Baku）。 坎泽瓦利是一位前国际象棋冠军，经常和同样也是在巴库长大的卡斯帕罗夫对弈。


The opportunity to see the city through a local’s eyes, hearing stories about everything from high school teachers to food shortages, was invaluable.	我有机会通过本地人的眼睛看待这座城市，聆听关于高中教师到食品短缺的一切，得到了无价的教益。


If I had not known better, I might have thought that the word “aliyev” meant street, because it appeared on almost every street sign.	如果我没有深入了解，我一定会以为“aliyev”这个词是“街道”的意思，因为几乎每一个路牌上都有它。


But it was the name of the ruler, Heydar Aliyev, whose son, Ilham, succeeded him in 2003 and remains President to this day.	但其实他是统治者盖达尔·阿利耶夫（Heydar Aliyev）的姓，他的儿子伊尔汗（Ilham）在2003年继承父亲的衣钵担任总统至今。


During our visit, my friend and I visited an orphanage to which she had sent a dozen computers the previous year.	在我们的旅途中，我的朋友和我访问了一家孤儿院。 去年她为这里捐赠了几十台电脑。


Some had been distributed to administrators, but several were now available for children to use during supervised lessons.	其中一些被分配给了管理人员，但有也有几台可供孩子们在有监督的课程中使用。


I vividly remember the children’s delighted squeals as they ran through the yard playing with the bubble-blowing pens that we had brought them.	我清楚地记得孩子们带着兴奋的尖叫跑着穿过院子来玩我们带给他们的泡泡笔。


Finally, two years ago in Cuba, after advertising for “entrepreneurs” on Twitter, I had the opportunity to meet several dissidents.	最后，两年前在古巴，在替“创业家”在Twitter上做了推广后，我获得了会见几名持异见者的机会。


The meeting was fascinating, despite – or perhaps partly because of – the furtive glances of two watchful men peering at us from behind their newspapers at the next table.	这次会面十分美好，尽管——也许部分原因也正在于此——邻桌坐着两名特务，以报纸为掩盖鬼鬼祟祟地盯着我们。


But a thirst for knowledge is useful not only in foreign countries.	但对知识的渴望并不只在外国有用。


Indeed, it is critical to gaining insight into the differences – and similarities – among people of different backgrounds, even those who live just a few towns or miles apart.	事实上，这是获得关于不同背景的人群的不同点和相同点的洞见的关键，哪怕这两群人只隔着几个村庄、几英里远。


That is precisely the attitude that I hope to bring to my travels within the United States for The Way to Wellville contest, in which five communities will compete to improve their health.	这就是我想在我的美国国内旅行中所持有的态度。 我将为“通往威尔维尔”（Way to Wellville）竞赛做这场旅行。


Rick Brush, the competition’s CEO, and I have already visited several of the 10-15 communities that we will explore before choosing the five contestants.	在竞赛中，五个社区将竞争改善他们的健康。 在选出五个竞赛社区前，我和竞赛CEO瑞克·布拉什（Rick Brush）已经访问了10—15个候选社区中的一些。


One stop was Lancaster, Pennsylvania, where we met a group of health- and civic-minded citizens at a grade school.	其中一站是宾夕法尼亚州的兰开斯特（Lancaster），我们在一所小学与热心健康和公益的公民团体见了面。


Teachers described the experience of taking unfinished meals home from a restaurant in a doggy bag, in the hope of instilling in their students the understanding that it is better to enjoy leftovers later than to overeat now.	教师讲述了在饭店将未吃完的饭菜打包带回、��期向学生灌输随后享用剩菜比当时吃得过多更好的观念。


(And, my Silicon Valley perspective told me, the restaurant could increase its revenue by selling ads on the sides of the doggy bags.)	（而我的硅谷视角告诉我，饭店还可以通过出售打包袋广告增加收入。 ）


In Niagara Falls, New York, we met with a larger group, including Mayor Paul Dyster, who last year officiated at the state’s first gay wedding, and a pastor who had also attended that wedding, carrying a protest sign.	在纽约州尼亚加拉福尔斯（Niagara Falls），我们和一个更大的团体见了面，其中包括去年主持了纽约州第一场同性恋婚礼的保罗·迪斯特（Paul Dyster）市长和一名带着抗议标语参加这场婚礼的牧师。


Despite their differences, both came to the meeting to discuss the community’s health with a friendly and constructive attitude.	尽管他们存在着不同，但两人都来到现场，以友好和建设性的态度会面讨论社区的健康问题。


However, the pastor did express some frustration that the police drive through, rather than walk around, the neighborhoods.	但是，牧师也表达了一些不满，如警察开车而不是步行在社区巡逻等。


A couple of hours later, as we drove through on a site visit, our path was blocked by two police cars, stopped side by side in the middle of the street, with the officers talking.	几小时后，在我们驾车实地考察期间，我们的车被两辆并排停在马路中央的警车堵住了，车上的警官们正在聊天。


I doubt they were discussing their – and their community’s – health.	我怀疑他们在讨论他们——以及他们的社区——的健康问题。


Lesson One in School Food	校园餐的第一课


NEW YORK – Had you told me a year ago that I would attend a conference devoted to school lunches, I would have laughed.	纽约—如果你在一年前告诉我，我会参加一个关于校园午餐的会议，我会一笑了之。


The closest that I have come to eating a school lunch lately is coach-class food on long-haul flights.	我吃过的最接近校园午餐的东西是长途航班经济舱的飞机餐。


But earlier this month I attended School Food FOCUS’s “National Gathering.”	但本月早些时候我出席了校园餐聚焦组织（School Food FOCUS）的“全国大会”。


I found it both heartwarming and thought-provoking.	我的参与感想是既感动，又发人深省。


A little context: In the United States, subsidized school lunches started in 1946 as a welfare program – but one focused on the welfare of farmers, not schoolchildren.	介绍一点背景：在美国，受补贴的校园餐始于1946年，这是一项福利计划——但最初的关注点是农民福利，而不是学生福利。


The primary purpose was to help farmers get rid of – I mean, distribute generously – their surplus production.	这项计划的主要目的是帮助农民处理掉——我是说，慷慨地送出——多出来的产量。


The program was gradually transformed over the years as students, whether out of choice or necessity, increasingly came to rely on school lunch rather than bringing their own.	多年来，随着学生（不管是有意选择还是不得已而为之）日渐依赖校园餐而不是自带便当，该计划逐渐发生了改变。


The percentage of children who qualify for a free or reduced-price school lunch has grown – to 48%, or about 20 million – and school lunch (and increasingly, breakfast and even dinner) is now a significant part of many children’s diets.	有资格获得免费或平价校园午餐的儿童数量稳步上升——现今已达48%或2,000万人——校园午餐（早餐甚至晚餐也越来越普遍）如今已成为许多儿童的主餐。


Now, new legislation mandates better nutrition, bans sugary drinks and sweets, and forbids the parallel sale of unhealthy alternatives to the main menu (which had been a major source of funding for subsidized lunches).	如今，新立法强制规定了更好的营养，禁止含糖饮料和糖果，也禁止同时销售不健康的主食谱替代品（在过去，这是补贴午餐的主要资金来源之一）。


But the new laws do not specify how healthy lunches are to be provided, and local communities are still expected to provide the funding (except for the surplus commodities).	但新法律并没有具体规定如何提供健康午餐，人们仍期待地方社区提供资金（除商品盈余之外）。


It is one thing to enact legislation; building the infrastructure to implement it and, in this case, offer a healthy meal for about $1.50 per child is another matter.	制定法律是一回事，建立实施法律的基础设施以及（在校园午餐的问题上）以每人1. 5美元左右的价格为儿童提供健康餐饮是另一回事。


Indeed, how to change school lunches has more to do with money and business than with health and nutrition.	事实上，改变校园午餐与其说是健康和营养问题，不如说是资金和商业问题。


(The latter goals are clear; the challenge is how to achieve them.)	（前者目标较为明确； 挑战在于如何实现它们。


School Food FOCUS, an arm of the New York-based non-profit Public Health Solutions, convenes its members – food managers from 36 large US school districts, serving more than four million children daily – and brings in researchers, partner philanthropies (mostly healthy-food advocates), and food vendors.	）作为纽约非盈利组织公共健康方案（Public Health Solution）的一个分支的校园餐聚焦组织召集各成员——来自36个美国大学区的校园餐经理，他们每天要为400多万儿童提供校园餐——并请来研究者、合作慈善人士（大部分是健康饮食支持者）和食品商。


Indeed, FOCUS turns the vendors into allies – and sponsors.	事实上，校园餐聚焦将食品商转变成了盟友和出资者。


The National Gathering was a trade show as much as an event for bureaucrats and philanthropists.	全国大会是既是官僚和慈善家的聚会，也是一次产品展览会。


I expected to hear about lobbying efforts and nutrition, but mostly I learned about supply chains.	我原本以为会听到很多游说声音和关于营养学的论调，但实际上我在会上了解得最多的是供应链。


The discussion focused mainly on how food can be procured, prepared, and delivered within the constraints of pricing, availability, and each school district’s facilities (which determine what kind of food they can prepare and serve).	大会的讨论主要集中于如何在价格、可获得性和各学区设施（决定了该学区可以准备和提供何种食物）约束条件下采购、准备和运送食物。


The school lunch program is the largest discrete market for low-cost, healthy food.	校园午餐计划是低成本健康饮食的最大离散市场。


But most food vendors would rather follow the dictates of their shareholders and sell more expensive, higher-margin food, with little regard for how healthy it is.	但大部分食品商宁可遵循股东的指示，出售价格更贵、利润更高的食品，而不顾及这些食品是否健康。


For years, they have complained that children (and adults) reject healthy food in favor of less-healthy food that tastes good.	多年来，它们抱怨儿童（以及成人）拒绝健康食品，更喜欢吃不太健康的美味食品。


Now, increasingly pushed toward healthy foods by government regulations, the school-food vendors are trying to figure out how to boost both healthiness and tastiness, because the government requires that schools measure not what the children are offered but what they select (though not what they actually eat rather than throw away).	如今，随着政府监管加大了对健康食品的推广力度，校园餐销售商开始尝试找出如何同时改善健康性和口味，因为政府要求学校不要衡量学生可以获得什么，而是衡量他们选择什么（尽管不是要衡量他们实际吃什么而是扔掉了什么）。


One could argue that a government cannot and should not control what people eat.	你或许认为政府不可能也不应该控制人们吃什么。


But in this unique market, it is the government that is paying and the customers are incapable – at least in legal terms – of choosing what is in their own best interest.	但在这个独特的市场中，花钱的是政府，客户是没有选择什么最符合他们的利益的胜任能力的——至少在法律上是如此。


That creates an ideal test environment not just for school suppliers, but also for the broader food market.	这就造成了一个理想的测试环境，不仅对校园供应商是如此，对范围更广的食品市场也是如此。


The challenge to the vendors is straightforward: make cheap, healthy food that appeals to the world’s most finicky eaters, grade-school kids.	销售商的挑战是直观的：做出廉价健康的食品吸引世界上最挑剔的食用者——学校儿童。


To do that, the first question to answer is what makes school food so bad.	为了做到这一点，第一个需要回答的问题是什么让校园餐质量如此低劣。


Aside from the focus on price and the need to absorb US farms’ excess output, school lunches reflect a broader trend toward turning food preparation into industrial production.	除了关注价格和吸收美国农场过多产出的需要，校园午餐反映了一个更广的趋势，即将食品准备工作变为工业产品。


Uniformity is prized above quality, and convenience is valued over freshness (and often over cost).	统一性被置于比质量更重要的地位，而方便性也胜过了新鲜（也经常压倒成本）。


Restaurant chains such as McDonald’s, for example, have transformed agriculture around the world with their homogenizing requirements for meat, bread, potatoes, and the like.	比如，麦当劳等食品连锁店通过其均质化的肉、面包、土豆等原料的需求改变了全世界的农业。


Under the assumption that consistency equals quality, variation in the size or color of, say, tomatoes has come to be considered bad (unless one calls them “heirloom” tomatoes and emphasizes their uniqueness).	在一致性等于质量的假设下，大小和颜色异常的（比如）西红柿被认为是劣等的（除非有人称它们是“传家宝”西红柿，强调它们的独特性）。


In schools, too, pre-packaged foods are now considered better than hand-prepared foods, not only because they can be set out again on Tuesday if the kids do not eat them on Monday, but also because they all look alike.	学校也是如此，如今预包装食品被认为比手工准备的食品更优等，不仅因为它们可以在孩子们星期一没有吃掉的情况下在星期二继续拿出来吃，也因为它们看起来都一样。


This trend is now being reversed in school food, thanks to legislative innovations such as allowing a preference (of up to about 10%) for locally grown products.	这一趋势在校园餐领域正在发生逆转，这要归因于立法创新，比如允许优先考虑（不能超过10%）本地产品。


But there is another issue: serving better school lunches often requires restoring the food-preparation facilities that existed before.	但还有另一个问题：提供更好的校园午餐通常需要重建早先存在的食品准备设备。


Instead of loading docks to unpack boxes and store packages, schools need stoves, refrigerators, cooking utensils, and serving dishes, among other things.	学校需要的不是卸下箱子、保存货品的装卸坞，而是炉灶、冰箱、炊具、碗碟等。


One speaker at the National Gathering noted that it is easier to obtain funding for capital equipment than for daily food purchases.	国家大会的一位发言人指出，资本设备比日常食品采购更容易获得融资。


And vendors such as Revolution Foods, founded by two mothers of school-age children, provide not only food, but also nutrition curricula for students, and even vocational training for food workers.	由两位学龄儿童母亲创办的革新食品连锁公司（Revolution Foods）等销售商不但为学生们提供食品，还提供营养课程，甚至为食品工作者提供职业培训。


Like most large-scale social change, the shift to mass consumption of healthier food requires both awareness and capacity.	和大部分大规模社会变迁一样，更健康食品的大众消费需要认识和能力双管齐下。


Just as recycling has gained currency through both regulation and a new social consciousness, vendors who learn how to sell healthy food to schools may someday tap a much larger adult market, whether because of regulation, a change in expectations, or the simple fact that their customers have grown up.	正如回收利用从监管和新的社会意识两方面获得动力，学会如何向学校出售健康食品的销售商也有望在有朝一日进入更广阔的成人市场，不管是因为监管、预期变化还仅仅是因为客户长大了。


Philanthropies of Scale	上规模的慈善机构


MIDLAND, TEXAS – Since starting my own nonprofit organization, I look at other nonprofits with new eyes.	米德兰，德克萨斯州—自从开办了我本人的非营利组织以来，我对其他非营利组织的看法也有了改观。


There are far more of them than I ever realized.	非营利组织的数量比我想象的要多得多。


As an angel investor, I did not normally engage with them.	作为天使投资人，我通常并不参与其中。


Now I worry that they are terribly inefficient.	如今，我担心它们的效率实在太低。


As I travel in small towns, many of the businesses that I see – most of them, it seems – belong to large chains, with mass-purchasing contracts, standardized training procedures, consistent quality, and, I assume, profitability.	在小镇之间穿行时，我所见到的许多企业——应该说是大部分——都属于大型连锁，签订了大量采购合同、有标准化的培训流程、始终如一的品质，以及（我认为具有）盈利能力。


The nonprofits, by contrast, are mostly small and are often run by people with passion but not much expertise or management skill.	相反，非营利组织大多规模较小，通常由满怀激情但专业和管理技能欠缺的人运作。


They benefit from dedication rather than efficiency – which is honorable but not easily scalable.	它们从奉献而不是效率中获益——这值得尊敬，但不容易规模化。


This is a challenge for the general proposition of self-help, and also for my own new venture: the Health Initiative Coordinating Council (HICCup), which will advise five communities competing to win the HICCup Prize for the greatest improvement, according to five metrics, in health (not health care) over five years.	这是一个一般性的自助挑战，也是我本人的新企业——健康项目协调委员会（Health Initiative Coordinating Council，HICCup）所面临的的挑战。 HICCup为五个竞争HICCup健康（而非医疗）最大进步奖的社区提供咨询。


The last thing we want to do or could do is to run things.	我们最不希望做、也最没有能力做的便是运营。


Yet we do need to figure out how to provide the right support to help communities run things themselves – just as a corporation might support a franchise or a dealership.	但我们需要指出如何提供正确的支持以帮助社区自立更深地运营——一如一家公司支持特许经营者和代理商。


The ownership is local.	所有权的地方的。


Our ultimate goal is to provide models and inspiration for other, larger communities over time.	我们的最终目标是，随着时间的推移，可以为其他更大的社区提供模式和启发。


What worries me is that just having a diabetes program, a visiting nurse corps, or a bicycle-share program is not enough.	让我担心的是，仅仅具备糖尿病计划、访问护士团队或自行车比例计划是不够的。


There are good programs and unsuccessful ones – just as there are good and bad restaurants, airlines, and oil companies.	有的计划是好计划，有的计划是不成功的——正如有的餐饮、航空和石油公司很好而有的不好。


Management makes a difference, one that ultimately boils down to good leadership and best practices.	管理能造成区别，而说到底管理可以归结为好领导和最佳实践。


But that is not what most nonprofit programs can achieve.	但大部分非盈利项目都无法达到这一目标。


They are not part of a larger organization that trains their workers, sets standards, and provides support for everything from branding to purchasing.	它们不是能培训工作人员、设置标准、提供从推广到采购的所有业务的支持的更大的组织的一部分。


Yes, there are now “social entrepreneurs.”	诚然，现在有一些“社会企业家”。


But can we find and support them at scale?	但我们可以上规模地发现和支持他们吗？


Nonprofits have no easy way to expand, raise capital, or combine forces.	非营利组织很难扩张、筹集资本或集合各界力量。


There are some new business models (such as social-impact bonds), and there are certainly businesses that sell social programs to payers such as governments, just as there are charities that outsource.	它们有一些新业务模式（如社会影响关系），也显然存在一些企业向政府等付费客户出售社会计划，正如存在外包的慈善机构。


But, unlike the for-profit sector, the nonprofit world is not fluid and efficient, and nonprofits have no incentive to merge, particularly as some people would have to give up their board seats or leadership positions.	但是，与盈利部门不同，非盈利部门流动性和效率低下，也没有动力从事兼并，特别是考虑到有人必然会因此放弃董事会席位或领导岗位。


While that is also true of many for-profit companies, the market trumps their leaders’ preferences.	对许多盈利公司来说，这一点也成立，但盈利公司领袖的个人偏好拧不过市场。


If customers or shareholders walk away, the board hires new managers or sells the company to someone who can run it better.	如果客户和股东离公司而去，董事会就会聘用新经理或把公司卖给能更好地经营它的人。


The problem with charities is that they have little incentive to become more efficient.	慈善机构的问题在于，它们基本上没有动力改进效率。


Disclosure requirements help, but they are no match for the discipline of the market.	披露要求有所助益，但不可与市场的力量相提并论。


In the case of for-profit goods and services, customers and payers are the same people; they monitor the quality themselves.	在盈利性商品和服务领域，客户和金主是同一批人； 他们会监督质量。


And the shareholders monitor – in essence – the use of resources to deliver that quality (roughly measured as profitability).	而如何使用资源以符合质量要求本质上由股东负责监督（盈利能力可以作为粗略的衡量标准）。


There is no simple way to monitor the quality and efficiency of a charity – especially one devoted to long-term changes (that is, investments) rather than daily delivery of services.	监督慈善机构的质量和效率没有简单的办法可循——特别是对于致力于长期变化（既投资）而不是提供日常服务的慈善机构。


At HICCup, we are looking for places and people that have already decided to do something and need help going further.	在HICCup，我们寻找已经决定做些什么并需要帮助来走得更远的地方和人。


But even where such “social fabric” exists, a proliferation of independent efforts often reflects individuals’ passions rather than broad-based capacity.	但即使在这类“社会结构”存在之处，独立行动的繁荣通常也只是反映了个人的热情，而不是广泛的能力。


So how does one go about building the interacting capabilities that address poverty, ignorance, and poor health while avoiding too much redundancy?	那么，如何才能构建战胜贫困、无知和糟糕的健康状况，同时又避免叠床架屋的多层次互动能力呢？


The question is not how to create a chain of soup kitchens, but how to develop leadership that creates intrinsic incentives for the staff.	问题不在于如何建立流动厨房链，而在于发展能为工作人员带去内在激励的领导层。


Consider Susan Burden at Beach Cities Health District in California.	以加利福尼亚州海滩城市卫生区（Beach Cities Health District，BCHD）的苏珊·波顿（Susan Burden）为例。


Originally an administrator at a for-profit hospital, she joined BCHD when it was a small pot of money and a building left over from the sale of a nonprofit hospital to a for-profit health group.	波顿原是一家盈利性医院的管理者，她加入BCHD时，后者并无多少资金，其办公场所也只是一座某非盈利医院在出售给盈利性医疗组织后遗留下来的建筑。


With energy and enthusiasm, Burden turned that operation into a thriving health (not health-care) agency that covers three cities and about 300,000 people on the western edge of Los Angeles.	在能量与激情的推动下，波顿将BCHD打造成了欣欣向荣的健康（而非医疗）机构，其服务范围覆盖了洛杉矶西侧三座城市的30万人。


The BCHD has 70 staff and about 700 volunteers.	BCHD拥有70名工作人员和约700名志愿者。


Outsiders have found tangible improvements in residents’ health.	外部人士也可以感受到居民健康方面的有形改善。


The BCHD’s programs are not novel: walk-to-school programs for children, healthy menus (through the district’s Blue Zones Project) for local restaurants, social support for older people, exercise classes, immunization programs, and the like.	BCHD的项目并无新奇之处：面向儿童的步行上学计划； 面向本地餐厅的健康减食计划（通过该地区的蓝区工程（Blue Zones Project）实现）；


But the energy with which people are drawn in and motivated is unique.	免疫计划，诸如此类。 但人们投入的能量和动力是无与伦比的。


I am excited about the possibility of using software to help deliver customized community services at little extra cost.	我对利用软件在不增加成本的情况下帮助实现个性化社区服务的可能性感到十分兴奋。


But the capacity in short supply is trained people.	但受过培训的人手十分稀缺。


How much do we need to train the trainers – and those who train the trainers?	我们需要为培训培训者——以及培训培训者的人——投入多少？


How trainable are people?	人们具有多大的可培训性？


Online courses may work for teaching technical topics, but is there a way to automate, at least partly, the training of all the people who need to be mobilized to foster health?	在线课程可能可以传授技术，但有办法至少部分实现所有构建健康所需要的人手的培训的自动化吗？


For example, I am an investor in Omada Health, a for-profit diabetes-management service.	比如，我是奥马达健康（Omada Health）的投资人之一，奥马达健康是一项盈利性糖尿病管理服务。


A single counselor runs ten groups of ten people each, partly online, partly face-to-face (usually paid for by health insurers or employers, who benefit when pre-diabetics become healthy or do not develop the disease).	一名顾问负责十组人，每组十人，有时通过在线交流，有时通过面对面交流（通常由健康保险商或雇主买单，他们是潜在尿病患者恢复健康或病情不恶化的受益者）。


The challenge for Omada is not the curriculum; it is training people to become effective counselors.	奥马达健康的挑战不在于课程； 而在于培训人手使他们称为有效的顾问。


While I expect to learn much more as I work on HICCup, I am already sure that the biggest problem will be finding people to take on the challenges in each community.  What’s the optimal balance between replicability and the human touch?	我希望通过HICCup的工作学到很多经验，但我已经可以确定，最大的问题将是找到人手在各社区应对挑战。 可复制性和人情味之间的最优平衡点在哪里？


The promise of scale is great for nonprofits – not just in terms of costs, but also for best practices and quality control.	规模能给非营利组织带来巨大的好处——不但在于成本方面，也在于最佳实践和质量控制方面。


Yet the real value is in training people to deliver for themselves, at a local scale – empowered rather than controlled, creative rather than rehearsed, and working by choice rather than in desperation.	但真正的价值在于培训人手在地方规模上自助——得到扶助而不是被控制，拥有创造性而不是刻板照搬，有选择而不是迫不得已地工作。


The Capital-Flow Conundrum	资本流之谜


ITHACA – In recent months, emerging economies have experienced capital-flow whiplash.	伊萨卡—最近几个月以来，新兴经济体经历了资本流的鞭挞。


Indications that the US Federal Reserve might “taper” its quantitative easing (QE) drove investors to reduce their exposure to emerging markets, sharply weakening their currencies and causing their equity prices to tumble.	美联储可能“逐步减少”其量化宽松（QE）等迹象让投资者争相降低新兴市场风险敞口，导致新兴市场货币大幅贬值、股价崩盘。


Now that the taper has been postponed, capital is flowing back in some cases.	如今“逐渐减少”被叫停，一些新兴市场又出现了资本回流。


But, with little influence, much less control, over what comes next, emerging economies are still struggling to figure out how to protect themselves from the impact of a Fed policy reversal.	但是，新兴经济体对于下一步会发生什么缺少控制力和影响力，它们仍在苦苦寻找如何保护自己免受美联储政策反复的冲击。


When the Fed initially hinted at its intention to taper QE, policymakers in some emerging economies cried foul, but were dismissed by advanced-economy officials as chronic complainers.	美联储一开始暗示其意图逐渐减少QE时，一些新兴经济体的决策者怨声载道，但发达经济体官员指出他们经常这样大声抱怨。


After all, they initially rejected the very policies that they are now fighting to preserve.	毕竟，一开始他们反对如今他们拼命要保留的政策。


But emerging-market policymakers’ criticisms do not reflect an inconsistent stance; in both cases, the crux of their complaint has been volatility.	但新兴市场决策者的批评并不自相矛盾； 不论是一开始还是现在，他们抱怨的核心问题是波动。


They have already attempted to erect defenses against the potentially destabilizing effects of advanced-country monetary policy by accumulating foreign-exchange reserves and establishing capital controls.	他们已经试图建立起防御工事抵御具有潜在破坏效应的发达国家货币政策——积累外汇储备、实施资本管制。


Now they are calling on their central banks to ensure stability by, for example, raising short-term lending rates.	如今，他们要求中央银行通过（比如）提高短期贷款税来确保稳定。


But this approach fails to address the underlying issue – and misdiagnosing the problem could have far-reaching consequences, not only leading to ineffective solutions, but also possibly causing severe distortions for specific economies and the global financial system as a whole.	但这一方针不能纠正根本性问题——而误诊问题可能带来深远的后果，不但会导致无效的解决方案，甚至可能导致某些经济体和整个全球金融系统的扭曲。


In order to design effective remedies, it is useful to distinguish among three types of failures that impede financial-market functioning.	为了设计出有效的应对之策，区别阻碍金融市场功能的三类失灵是大有裨益的。


First, there are market failures, which occur when, for example, investors display herd behavior, information asymmetries exist, or the structure of incentives for investment managers encourages excessive risk-taking.	首先，当（比如）投资者表现出羊群效应、存在信息不对称或者投资经理的激励结构鼓励他们过度冒险时，会发生市场失灵。


Second, there are policy failures, which occur when undisciplined macroeconomic policies and inconsistent or ineffective financial regulatory policies heighten the risks associated with volatile capital flows.	其次是政策失灵，这类失灵发生于无纪律的宏观经济政策和矛盾而无效的金融监管政策导致资本流波动相关风险升高时。


The third – and currently most problematic – failure is one of national or international institutions.	第三类——也是目前问题最大的一类——失灵是国家或国际制度失灵。


Domestic monetary policy has become the first and last line of defense against growth slowdowns and financial panics, enabling policymakers to avoid pursuing other important, but far more difficult measures.	国内货币政策已成为抵御增长减速和金融恐慌的第一道和最后一道防线，这使得决策者可以不去追求其他重要但困难得多的措施。


Using monetary policy to compensate for deficiencies in other policy areas constitutes an institutional breakdown: monetary policymakers are not necessarily getting it wrong, but they are constrained by the configuration of other policies.	用货币政策补偿其他政策领域的低效率构成了制度性故障：货币决策这未必造成了错误，但他们被其他政策设置束缚住了手脚。


The inadequacy of the current framework for global governance compounds the problem.	当前全球治理框架的不充分性加剧了这一问题。


The grim reality is that, with financial markets becoming increasingly interconnected, monetary-policy measures taken by any of the major economies have international spillover effects.	残酷的现实是，随着金融市场之间的联系日益紧密，任何一个主要经济体采取的货币政策措施都会产生国际溢出效应。


An effective governance mechanism or reliable institution is needed to help emerging markets cope with these effects.	我们需要有效的治理机制和可靠的制度来帮助新兴市场克服这一效应。


The lack of effective global economic governance has important implications for capital flows.	全球经济缺乏有效治理对于资本流具有重要影响。


Emerging-market policymakers believe that they lack recourse to safety nets that would cushion the impact of volatile flows.	新兴市场决策者认为他们缺少缓冲资本流波动冲击的安全网资源。


Their efforts to “self-insure,” by, say, building up their foreign-exchange reserves, perpetuate global economic imbalances.	他们的“自我保护”措施——比如通过积累外汇储备——促使全球经济长期存在失衡。


So how can policymakers address these failures?	那么，决策者如何纠正这些失灵？


There has been some progress at the international level on regulatory reforms aimed at addressing market failures, though such efforts have been limited by strident resistance from financial institutions.	在旨在纠正市场失灵的国际层面的监管改革方面已有了一些进展，尽管这些努力因为金融机构的坚决抵制而收效甚微。


Solutions for policy failures are not difficult to discern.	政策失灵的解决办法不难领悟。


Flexible currencies, more transparent monetary frameworks, and sound long-term fiscal policies can serve as buffers against capital-flow volatility.	弹性的货币、更透明的货币框架和可靠的长期财政政策可以作为资本流波动的缓冲器。


Moreover, the functioning of emerging-economy financial markets should be improved, with policies aimed at institutional development and improved regulatory capacity.	此外，新兴经济体金融市场功能应该得到改善，辅之以以制度性发展和改善监管能力的政策。


While the right policies cannot eliminate risk, they can ameliorate the cost-benefit tradeoff from capital flows.	尽管正确的政策不能消除风险，但它们可以减轻资本流成本-收益权衡压力。


Fixing institutional failures is the most important – and the most difficult – step.	纠正制度失灵是最为重要也最为困难的一步。


Successful reform requires, first and foremost, finding the right mix of domestic policies.	对于成功的改革来说，最重要的一点是找到国内政策的正确组合。


In the advanced economies, in particular, a sharper focus on long-term debt reduction, rather than short-term fiscal austerity, is needed, along with structural reforms to labor, product, or financial markets, depending on the country.	特别是在发达经济体中，需要更集中于长期债务减少而不是短期财政紧缩，并辅之以劳动力、产品或金融市场的结构性改革（因国家而异）。


In many of the troubled emerging economies, however, monetary policy has shouldered the burden of controlling inflation, managing the local currency’s value, and supporting growth.	但是，对于许多陷入困境的新兴经济体，货币政策承担起了控制通胀、管理本币价值和支持增长的重任。


This balancing act is difficult to maintain, leaving these economies vulnerable when the external environment turns unfavorable.	这一平衡要求很难维持，导致这些经济体难以抵挡不利的外部环境。


In India, for example, increasing productivity and long-term growth require fiscal discipline and a raft of financial- and labor-market reforms.	比如，在印度，提高生产率和长期增长需要财政纪律和大量金融和劳��力市场改革。


But the central bank is being asked to do all the heavy lifting.	但印度央行被要求揽下全部重担。


In other emerging markets, too, the main challenge is to ensure that all macroeconomic and structural policies advance common goals.	其他新兴市场经济体也一样，它们的主要挑战是确保所有宏观经济和结构性政策有利于共同目标。


At the same time, the governance structure of multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund must be reformed, in order to bolster their legitimacy in emerging markets.	与此同时，IMF等多边机构的治理结构也必须有所改革，以增加它们在新兴市场的合法性。


Otherwise, these institutions will remain ineffective in confronting collective problems related to macroeconomic-policy spillovers, and in providing insurance against crises.	否则，这些机构将依然无法有效应对与宏观政策溢出有关的集体性问题和提供危机保险。


Policymakers in advanced and emerging countries alike should focus on the underlying failures that destabilize their economies and impede growth, rather than trying to treat the symptoms by manipulating monetary policy or capital controls.	发达国家和新兴国家的决策者都应该专注于动摇其经济、妨碍增长的根本性失灵问题，而不是试图通过玩弄货币政策或资本管制治疗症候。


Unless they are supported by strong institutional structures at all levels, such measures will prove futile in managing capital flows.	除非获得各个层面的强大的制度性结构的支持，这些措施是无力管理资本流的。


The Dollar is Still King	美元依旧为王


ITHACA – Scarcely a week passes without news about the ascendance of China’s currency, the renminbi.	发自伊萨卡——每周都有关于中国货币（人民币）占据优势地位的消息接踵而来。


But China has a long way to go before its currency can rival – let alone displace – the US dollar as the dominant global reserve currency.	但要说到能对抗——更别说替代——美元的国际储备货币统治地位，中国还有很长一段路要走。


To be sure, China already plays a significant role in international trade and finance, with major financial centers like London and Frankfurt eagerly lining up for renminbi business.	无可否认，在国际贸易和金融方面中国已经在扮演着重要角色，连伦敦和法兰克福这样的金融中心都在热切等待着启动人民币业务。


Recent speculation that China’s economy may soon be as large as America’s has boosted this interest further, causing many to believe – whether ruefully or gleefully – that the renminbi will soon dominate.	最近关于中国经济规模可能很快会比肩美国的论断也令该意愿进一步高涨，导致许多人相信——不管是悲凄地还是欣喜地——人民币很快会一统天下了。


Moreover, the Chinese authorities have launched a raft of reforms aimed at opening the economy and making it more market-oriented, and have announced plans to liberalize interest and exchange rates and continue to ease restrictions on cross-border capital flows.	此外，中国政府也启动了一系列改革，旨在开放经济并令其更加以市场为导向，同时也宣布了一系列计划来放松利率和汇率，并持续放宽对跨境资本流动的限制。


All of this will strengthen the renminbi’s claim to reserve-currency status.	所有这一切都将强化人民币获取储备货币地位的雄心。


But China is missing one crucial ingredient: the world’s trust.	但中国缺少了一个关键的因素：全世界的信任。


To achieve currency dominance, China needs more than economic and military might; it requires a broader and more credible set of public and political institutions.	如果要实现货币统治地位的话，中国需要一些超越经济和军事力量之外的力量； 而需要建立一个更广泛也更具可信度的公共和政治体制。


And it is here that the US shines – at least relatively speaking.	而这正是美国的优势所在——至少相对而言。


This was never more apparent than in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.	这一点在全球金融危机爆发之后显得尤为明显。


Even though America’s financial markets nearly collapsed, its public-debt levels rose sharply, and the Federal Reserve was forced to undertake massive monetary expansion to support the economy, the dollar strengthened relative to most other currencies.	即便美国的金融市场几乎崩溃，其公共债务水平大幅上升，美联储被迫要实施大规模的货币扩张以支撑其经济，美国兑其他大多数货币的汇率却依然有所走强。


That is because global investors seeking a safe haven automatically turn to US Treasury securities in times of global financial turmoil.	这是因为那些在全球金融动荡时期寻求避险天堂的投资者们自动转向了美国国债。


Foreign investors now hold more than $5.7 trillion of these low-yielding securities, not to mention large quantities of other dollar assets.	外国投资者目前持有约值5. 7万亿美元的这类低息债券，更别提大量的其他美元资产。


And the dollar’s share in global foreign-exchange reserves has held steady since the crisis.	而美元占全球外汇储备的份额也在危机爆发以来保持稳定。


This can be explained partly by the fact that the United States boasts the world’s deepest and most liquid financial markets.	这在某种程度上可以用美国拥有全世界最深厚也最具流动性的金融市场的事实来解释。


But the most important factor supporting America’s currency dominance is the institutionalized system of checks and balances that operates among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of its government.	但支撑美国货币统治的最重要因素则是美国行政，立法和司法机构三者之间分立制衡的制度体系。


Trust in US public institutions is rooted in the open and transparent democratic process that underpins them.	对美国公共机构的信任根植于构筑其下的公开透明民主程序。


Freedom of expression and unfettered media bolster this confidence, not by highlighting the system’s strengths, but by exposing its weaknesses, which can subsequently be corrected through responsive, rule-based mechanisms.	言论自由和不受管制的媒体支撑这一信心的方式不是通过为体制歌功颂德，而是曝光其不足，然后用反应灵敏并以规则为基础的机制来纠正这些错误。


With the US government forced to answer to its citizens, it is unlikely to resort to inflationary debt financing.	由于美国政府必须要回应公民的呼声，它也不太可能寻求通胀借债融资的手段。


In fact, about $4.5 trillion of US federal debt is held by domestic investors, including retirees, pension funds, financial institutions, and insurance companies – groups whose considerable political clout ensures that no administration would risk allowing inflation to spin out of control.	事实上，大约4. 5万亿的美国联邦债务都由本地投资者持有，包括退休人士、养老基金，金融机构和保险公司——这些团体较大的政治影响力确保没有政府冒让通胀失控的风险。


The US legal system – independent from the executive and legislative branches of government – further supports the dollar’s global role.	独立于行政和立法部门的美国司法系统进一步支撑着美元的国际角色。


While one might quibble about the complexity of US laws and regulations, it cannot be said that they are not applied relatively consistently.	虽然某些人会指摘美国法律规章的复杂性，但也无法否认它们是相对一致地得到了执行。


This contrasts sharply with China’s single-party system, in which the level of government accountability is much lower.	这就与中国的一党制体制形成了鲜明对比，后者的政府可信度也更为低下。


Official corruption, for example, has become so entrenched that President Xi Jinping has made an anti-graft campaign a central objective.	官员腐败现象是如此根深蒂固，以致习近平主席必须将反腐败运动当成核心目标来抓。


The reality is that, despite China’s economic heft and low central-government public debt, foreign investors are unlikely to trust China with large sums of money.	现实的情况是尽管中国经济体量巨大而且中央政府公共负债较低，外国投资者也不会把大笔钱放在中国。


Capital inflows – which will undoubtedly increase in the coming years – are driven largely by investors’ interest in diversification and high yield, rather than the country’s image as a refuge from troubled financial markets elsewhere, especially given that China’s financial markets are relatively underdeveloped and beset by considerable risks.	资本流动——虽然在近年来毫无疑问地不断增大——主要是由投资者对分散投资和高回报所驱动，而非因为中国是一个其他问题市场的避风港，尤其考虑到中国金融市场的发展相对低下而且存在相当大的风险。


Of course, some foreign central banks have signed currency-swap agreements with China and even hold small amounts of its currency in their reserve portfolios.	当然，一些外国央行已经与中国签订了货币互换协议并在自身的储备项目表中持有少量的人民币。


But these actions may be less a sign of the renminbi’s inevitable march toward global dominance than a low-cost bet on its likely emergence as a widely accepted international currency.	但这些行动与其说是代表了人民币向国际统治地位不可避免地推进，不如说是对其崛起成为一个广泛接受的国际货币可能性的低成本赌注。


And countries’ desire to maintain good relations with China, owing to its rising economic power, cannot be discounted.	而那些国家出于中国不断崛起的经济实力而与其维持良好关系的意愿也必须考虑在内。


Depending on how soon China opens up its capital account and develops its financial markets, the renminbi could become a significant reserve currency in the near future.	人民币会在不远的未来成为一个重要的储备货币，但这取决于中国开放其资本账户和发展金融市场的进度。


But it will not contest the dollar’s supremacy unless China’s leaders align the country’s political and legal institutions with its economic reforms.	但除非中国领导人能将该国的政治和法律体系与其经济改革同时进行，否则人民币将无法挑战美元的统治地位。


Eternal Hong Kong	永远的香港


I have been a part of Hong Kong’s civil service for more than three decades.	我在香港做公务员已有30余年。


Throughout my entire career I have worked with many people whose driving impulse has been to serve Hong Kong.	在整个职业生涯中，与我共过事的人中，以服务香港为动力的大有人在。


That remains as true today as it did almost 40 years ago, when I first entered government.	四十年前我初入政界时是如此，四十年后的今天也是如此。


The past couple of weeks have been among the most momentous periods since our reunification with China in 1997, and it has left me in the hot seat as Hong Kong’s Acting Chief Executive.	过去几周是自1997年香港回归中国以来最重大的时刻之一。


It is not easy to describe the enormous level of responsibility I feel.	也就在这一期间，我坐上了香港代理特别行政长官这一让人坐立不安的位置，感受到的巨大责任难以用语言来描述。


What sets Hong Kong apart is our ability to sustain social stability and economic growth.	香港之所以与众不同，是因为我们有能力维护社会稳定，保证经济增长。


One key element of our success is the institutions that buttress our development.	我们能成功，关键之一就在于我们有种种制度来为发展提供支持与保障。


These include our legal system, which is underpinned by an independent judiciary, our legislature, and our civil service.	其中包括我们立法、司法、行政分开的法律制度。


Each operates independently but is an integral part of the whole.	此三权独立运作，但又同为一体。


In short, ours is a system of government like many others.	总之，我们的政府制度与大多数政府制度类似。