For example, a recent study found that the potential for groundwater contamination can be dramatically reduced if fertilizers are distributed through the irrigation system according to plant demand during the growing season; organic farming, however, depends on compost, the release of which is not matched to plant demand.	比如，最新研究发现，如果根据作物在生长季的需要通过灌溉系统施用化肥，地下水的污染风险可以显著降低； 而有机农业依靠堆肥，堆肥释放的东西并不与作物需求相配。


Moreover, though composting receives good press as a “green” practice, it generates a significant amount of greenhouse gases (and is often a source of pathogenic bacteria in crops).	此外，尽管堆肥被赞为“绿色”措施，但会产生大量温室气体（也通常是作物致病菌的来源）。


The study also found that “intensive organic agriculture relying on solid organic matter, such as composted manure that is mixed in to the soil prior to planting, resulted in significant down-leaching of nitrate” into groundwater.	这份研究还发现，“依靠固体有机物质的集约有机农业，如在播种前向土壤中加入粪堆肥，会产让大量硝酸盐渗入”地下水。


Increasing the nitrate levels in groundwater is hardly a hallmark of sustainability, especially with many of the world’s most fertile farming regions in the throes of drought.	地下水硝酸盐浓度的提高绝非可持续性的标志，特别是在考虑到许多世界最适耕农业区饱受干旱侵扰的情况下。


A fundamental reason that organic food production is far less “sustainable” than many forms of conventional farming is that organic farms, though possibly well adapted for certain local environments on a small scale, produce far less food per unit of land and water.	有机食品生产的“可持续性”远不如多种形式的常规农业的一个根本原因是有机农场尽管有可能小规模地与一定的当地条件十分契合，但其单位土地和用水所产生的食品数量要低得多。


The low yields of organic agriculture – typically 20-50% below conventional agriculture – impose various stresses on farmland, especially on water consumption.	有机农业的产量通常比常规农业低20—50%，这导致农地压力大增，特别是水消费。


A British meta-analysis published in 2012 identified some of the stresses that were higher in organic agriculture.	一项2012年发表的英国元分析指出了一些在有机农业中更大的弊端。


For example, it found that “ammonia emissions, nitrogen leaching, and nitrous oxide emissions per product unit were higher from organic systems,” as were “land use, eutrophication potential, and acidification potential per product unit.”	比如，该分析发现“有机系统的单位产量的氨排放量、氮流失量和一氧化二氮排放量都较高，”而“单位产量的土地使用量、富营养化效应以及酸化效应”也较大。


Lower crop yields in organic farming are largely inevitable, owing to the arbitrary rejection of various advanced methods and technologies.	有机农业的低产量可以说是难以避免的，因为它武断地拒绝使用各种先进方法和科技。


Organic practices afford limited pesticide options, create difficulties in meeting peak fertilizer demand, and rule out access to genetically engineered varieties.	有机方法意味着除虫手段十分有限，难以满足峰值肥料需���，也排除了转基因作物。


If organic production were scaled up significantly, the lower yields would lead to greater pressure to convert land to agricultural use and produce more animals for manure, to say nothing of the tighter squeeze on water supplies – all of which are challenges to sustainability.	如果有机生产规模大幅扩大，低产量将造成更大的压力促使人们将更多土地转作农地、饲养更多动物用于堆肥，更不用说水供应会更急吃紧了——所有这些都会对可持续性构成挑战。


Another limitation of organic production is that it works against the best approach to enhancing soil quality – namely, the minimization of soil disturbance (such as that caused by plowing or tilling), combined with the use of cover crops.	有机生产的另一个局限性在于它与强化土地质量的最佳办法背道而驰。 要强化土地质量，最好尽可能减少对土壤的扰动（如犁和耕），并使用遮盖作物。


Such farming systems have many environmental advantages, particularly with respect to limiting erosion and the runoff of fertilizers and pesticides.	这样的农业系统有许多环境方面的好处，特别是限制土地侵蚀、减少化肥和杀虫剂流失。


Organic growers do frequently plant cover crops, but in the absence of effective herbicides, they often rely on tillage (or even labor-intensive hand weeding) for weed control.	有机农业也的确常常会种植遮盖作物，但由于不使用高效除草剂，只能依靠翻耕（甚至劳动密集型的手工除草）来控制莠草。


At the same time, organic producers do use insecticides and fungicides to protect their crops, despite the green myth that they do not.	与此同时，有机农业生产商确实也使用杀虫剂和杀菌剂保护作物，尽管绿色神话说没有这回事。


More than 20 chemicals (mostly containing copper and sulfur) are commonly used in growing and processing organic crops – all acceptable under US rules for certifying organic products.	在种植和处理有机作物的过程中会使用20多种化学物质（大部分包含铜和硫）——都是在美国有机产品认证规则的允许范围内。


Perhaps the most illogical and least sustainable aspect of organic farming in the long term is the exclusion of “genetically engineered” (also known as “genetically modified,” or GM) plants – but only those that were modified with the most precise techniques and predictable results.	从长期角度看，有机农业中最不含逻辑、最不可持续的部分也许是排斥“转基因”作物——但只排斥那些技术最精确、后果最可预料的转基因作物。


Except for wild berries and wild mushrooms, virtually all the fruits, vegetables, and grains in European and North American diets have been genetically improved by one technique or another – often as a result of seeds being irradiated or undergoing hybridizations that move genes from one species or genus to another in ways that do not occur in nature.	除了野生浆果和野生蘑菇，几乎所有欧洲和北美洲食谱上的水果、蔬菜和谷物都被这种或那种手段进行了基因改良——通常是通过用射线照射种子或杂交配种，从而实现在自然界中不会发生的基因从一个物种转移到另一物种的目的。


The exclusion from organic agriculture of organisms simply because they were crafted with modern, superior techniques makes no sense.	仅仅因为它们经过现代高科技处理而将生物体排除在有机农业之外毫无道理。


It not only denies farmers improved seeds, but also denies consumers of organic goods access to nutritionally improved foods, such as oils with enhanced levels of omega-3 fatty acids.	这不仅让农民无法改良种子，也让有机产品消费者无法获得营养改良食品，如欧米茄-3脂肪酸强化食用油。


In recent decades, conventional agriculture has become more environmentally friendly and sustainable than ever before.	近几十年中，常规农业已变得比以往更加环境友好和可持续。


But that reflects science-based research and old-fashioned technological ingenuity on the part of farmers, plant breeders, and agribusiness companies, not irrational opposition to modern insecticides, herbicides, genetic engineering, and “industrial agriculture.”	但这反映的是农民、作物育种家和农业公司的基于科学的研究和老派技术创新，而不是对现代杀虫剂、杀菌剂、基因工程和“工业农业”的不理性的反对。


More Crop for the Drop	同等降水条件下产量更多


STANFORD – The United Nations has called drought the “world’s costliest natural disaster,” both financially, imposing an annual cost of $6-8 billion, and in human terms; since 1900, it has affected two billion people, leading to more than 11 million deaths.	斯坦福——无论从经济（每年造成的损失为60-80亿美元）还是人文角度，联合国定义的“全世界损失最严重的自然灾害”都是旱灾； 1900年来受旱灾影响的人数已达20亿，其中1，100万人因此而死亡。


That is because so much of the world is vulnerable; currently affected areas include Australia, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, North and South America, and the Middle East.	这是因为旱灾的影响面极其广泛； 目前包括澳大利亚、撒哈拉以南非洲、南亚、南北美和中东地区都受到影响。


Given that agriculture accounts for 70% of water consumption, on average, worldwide, it seems logical that this sector should be the focus of conservation measures.	鉴于农业占用水量的70%，从世界平均来看，把农业作为节水重点似乎是合理的选择。


And, in fact, a proven technology exists that could go a long way toward reducing the impact of drought: genetic engineering (GE).	但事实上已经存在成熟的基因工程（GE）技术，可以在很大程度上缓解干旱的影响。


Sometimes called “genetic modification,” GE enables plant breeders to make existing crop plants do new things – such as conserve water.	基因工程有时也称“基因改造”，植物育种家在它的帮助下可以让现有作物表现出节水等全新特征。


Even with research and development hampered by resistance from activists and excessive government regulation, drought-resistant GE crop varieties are emerging from the development pipeline in many parts of the world.	即使在活动人士抵制和政府过度监管给研发工作造成很大障碍的情况下，世界不少地方的抗旱转基因作物品种仍然在研发系统中脱颖而出。


Over the last two decades, such crop varieties have been cultivated on more than 1.5 billion hectares by more than 17 million farmers in some 30 countries – without disrupting a single ecosystem or causing so much as a stomachache.	过去20年来，已经有30多个国家超过1，700万农民种植了超过15亿公顷的抗旱作物——没有哪里的生态系统遭到破坏，甚至都没有出现过食用者胃疼这样的结果。


Worldwide, these new varieties have provided “very significant net economic benefits at the farm level, amounting to $18.8 billion in 2012 and $116.6 billion” from 1996 to 2012, according to a recent report by Landes Bioscience.	上述新品种为全世界农场“带来了极为显著的净经济效益，《兰德斯生物科学》最新报告显示2012年经济效益达188亿美元，而从1996到2012年合计达到1，166亿美元之多。


Most of these new crop varieties are designed to resist herbicides, so that farmers can adopt more environmentally friendly, no-till cultivation practices, and many have also been engineered to resist pests and diseases that ravage crops.	多数新品种可以抗除草剂，以便农民采用更环保的免耕栽培技术，还有不少可以抵御虫害和疾病。


Others have higher nutritional value, making them ideally suited for developing-country populations that struggle to acquire the nutrients they need to lead healthy, productive lives.	还有些品种营养价值更高，更适宜迫切需要摄入健康、有效生活所需营养物质的发展中国家人民食用。


But, in the long term, the greatest boon of all, for both food security and the environment, will likely be the ability of new crop varieties to tolerate periods of drought and other water-related stresses.	但从长远看，新作物品种耐受干旱及其他水相关问题的能力很可能是对粮食安全和环境最显著的好处。


Even a small reduction in the amount of water used for irrigation could have huge benefits, especially in drought conditions.	即便灌溉水量稍有减少都能产生巨大的效益，尤其是在干旱条件下。


To develop such varieties, plant biologists identified genes that regulate water use and transferred them into important crop plants, enabling them to grow with less or lower-quality water, such as water that has been recycled or is high in natural mineral salts.	为了研发这样的品种，植物生物学家找到了调节用水量的基因，并将其转移至重要的作物品种，这些品种在水资源不足或水质量不高的情况下也能正常生长，比方说用循环水灌溉或水中天然矿物盐含量较高。


Egyptian researchers have shown that by transferring a single gene from barley to wheat, the plants can tolerate reduced watering for a longer period of time.	埃及研究人员已经证明只需把单个基因从大麦转移到小麦上，作物就可以耐受较长时间的缺水状况。


This new, drought-resistant variety requires only one-eighth as much irrigation as conventional wheat; in some deserts, it can be cultivated with rainfall alone.	这种新型耐旱品种仅需传统小麦灌溉水量的八分之一； 在某些沙漠地带，甚至仅靠降雨即可维持作物生长。


Other types of GE crop varieties, such as those that are disease- and pest-resistant, indirectly improve the efficiency of water use.	具有抗病及抗虫特性的其他种类的转基因作物品种可以间接提高水资源利用的质量。


Because much of the loss to diseases and pests occurs after the plants are fully grown – that is, after most of the water required for their growth has already been supplied – resistance to them means more agricultural output per unit of water invested.	因为病虫害造成的损失多发于作物充分生长之后——也就是在多数生长所需的水资源已经消耗完毕之后——抗御病虫害意味着提高单位水资源投入的农业产量。


In short, farmers can get more crop for the drop.	总之，在降水量不变的前提下农民可以实现更多产量。


Molecular genetic engineering technology can conserve water in other ways as well.	分子基因工程技术也可以用其他方式节约水资源的利用。


One-third of irrigated land worldwide is not suitable for growing crops because of the presence of salt – the result of repeated fertilization.	全世界三分之一灌溉土地因含盐（反复施肥的结果）而不适于种植作物。


To regain the more than 200,000 hectares of irrigated land that is lost to cultivation annually, scientists have enhanced the salt tolerance of crops as diverse as tomatoes and canola.	为夺回每年因耕作而丧失的超过200,000公顷灌溉土地，科学家强化了从西红柿到油菜等各种作物对盐的耐受。


The transformed plants can grow in salty soil and be irrigated with brackish water, conserving fresh water for other uses.	经过改造的作物可以在含盐土壤中生长并用含盐水灌溉，省下新鲜的淡水可以转用于其他用途。


Given the benefits, one might expect such developments to be universally lauded and encouraged.	鉴于由此带来的经济效益，人们可能想当然地认为这样的进展可以得到普遍的鼓励和赞扬。


But they face major regulatory obstacles.	但事实上它们却面临巨大的监管障碍。


Europe, for example, largely prohibits GE crops; India has approved insect-resistant cotton but has failed to sanction any food crops.	比方说欧洲就基本禁止播种转基因作物； 印度虽批准种植抗虫棉花，但却拒绝批准种植任何粮食作物。


Even where GE crops are being cultivated, unscientific, excessively burdensome regulation has raised the cost of producing new plant varieties significantly, keeping many potentially important ones from the market.	即便在种植转基因作物的情况下，不科学、过于繁琐的监管程序也显著提高了新作物的生产成本，导致很多潜在的重要品种无法进入市场。


These measures are irrational, because they are inversely related to risk.	上述措施因为与风险呈负相关而并不具有合理性。


They permit the largely unregulated use of new varieties of plants and microorganisms that have been crafted with less precise and predictable techniques, under the pretense that they are somehow more “natural,” while stringently regulating – or even banning – those based on the most advanced knowledge and methods.	他们以某种程度上更“天然”为由允许几乎不受监管地使用以不那么精确可靠的技术生产出来的植物和微生物新品种，同时严格监管——甚至禁止——用最先进的知识和方法生产出来的产品。


As water scarcity increases, drought-stricken crops wither, and food prices rise, the need for resilient agriculture will become more obvious – and more urgent.	随着水资源短缺加剧、受旱农作物枯萎和粮食价格上涨，对弹性农业的需求将会变得更加迫切和显著。


With more rational public policy, we can meet that need now.	如果采用更为理性的公共政策，我们现在就可以满足人们的需求。


How much more preventable misery and death must occur before our policymakers see reason?	还需要多少本来可以避免的痛苦和死亡，才能让我们的决策者变得更加理性？


The Myth of Organic Agriculture	有机农业的神话


STANFORD – Organic products – from food to skin-care nostrums to cigarettes – are very much in vogue, with the global market for organic food alone now reportedly exceeding $60 billion annually.	斯坦福——从食品、香烟到护肤秘方，有机产品正大行其道，据报道目前仅有机食品每年的全球市场就超过600亿美元。


The views of organic devotees seem to be shared by the European Commission, whose official view of organic farming and foods is, “Good for nature, good for you.”	欧盟委员会似乎也赞同有机爱好者们的观点，“适合自然、也适合你”是欧盟的官方宣传。


But there is no persuasive evidence of either.	但这两方面都缺乏令人信服的证据。


A 2012 meta-analysis of data from 240 studies concluded that organic fruits and vegetables were, on average, no more nutritious than their cheaper conventional counterparts; nor were they less likely to be contaminated by pathogenic bacteria like E. coli or salmonella – a finding that surprised even the researchers.	2012年对240项研究结果的汇总分析显示：一般而言，有机水果和蔬菜并不比便宜的水果蔬菜更有营养，它们被大肠杆菌或沙门氏菌等致病菌污染的可能性也没有降低。 就连研究人员都对这一结果感到惊讶。


“When we began this project,” said Dena Bravata, one of the researchers, “we thought that there would likely be some findings that would support the superiority of organics over conventional food.”	参与这项研究的德娜·布拉瓦塔说，“项目开始时，我们都认为很可能找到有机食品优于传统食品的证据。 ”


Many people purchase organic foods in order to avoid exposure to harmful levels of pesticides.	很多人选购有机食品是为了避免有害的农药残留。


But that is a poor rationale.	但这样做的理由并不充分。


While non-organic fruits and vegetables had more pesticide residue, the levels in more than 99% of cases did not cross the conservative safety thresholds set by regulators.	虽然非有机水果蔬菜农药残留较高，但99%以上并没有超过监管机构设定的保守的安全阈值。


Moreover, the vast majority of the pesticidal substances found on produce occur “naturally” in people’s diets, through organic and conventional foods.	此外，包括有机和传统食品在内的人类饮食中“天然”出现绝大多数农产品上发现的杀虫物质。


The biochemist Bruce Ames and his colleagues have found that “99.99% (by weight) of the pesticides in the American diet are chemicals that plants produce to defend themselves.	生物化学家布鲁斯·埃姆斯及其同事发现“美国人饮食中（以重量计）99. 99%的农药是植物自身防御产生的化学物质。


Only 52 natural pesticides have been tested in high-dose animal cancer tests, and about half (27) are rodent carcinogens; these 27 are shown to be present in many common foods.”	高剂量动物致癌试验只检出52种天然农药，其中约半数（27种）为啮齿类动物致癌物质； 许多常见食物中都含有这27种物质。


The bottom line is that natural chemicals are just as likely as synthetic versions to test positive in animal cancer studies, and “at the low doses of most human exposures, the comparative hazards of synthetic pesticide residues are insignificant.”	最低限度是天然及合化学物质在动物致癌研究中的检出率相差无几，并且“考虑到极低的接触剂量，甚至可以用微不足道来形容合成农药残留的相对危险性。


In other words, consumers who buy expensive organic foods in order to avoid pesticide exposure are focusing their attention on 0.01% of the pesticides that they consume.	”换句话讲，为避免摄入农药而购买昂贵有机食品的消费者只关注了他们农药摄入量的0. 01%。


Ironically, in both Europe and North America, the designation “organic” is itself a synthetic bureaucratic construct – and it makes little sense.	颇具讽刺意味的是，欧洲和北美对“有机”的界定本身就是一种人工合成的官僚机制——几乎可以说毫无道理。


It prohibits the use of synthetic chemical pesticides, with some pragmatic exceptions.	“有机”禁用了人工合成的化学农药，但又出于实际考虑允许存在某些例外。


For example, the EU’s policy notes that “foreseen flexibility rules” can compensate for “local climatic, cultural, or structural differences.”	比方说，欧盟政策规定“具有先见之明的灵活性规则”可以弥补“地方气候、文化或者结构性差异。


When suitable alternatives are lacking, some (strictly enumerated) synthetic chemicals are allowed.	”如果找不到合适的替代品，就允许使用某些（严格列举）的合成化学物质。


Similarly, in the US, there is a lengthy list of specific exceptions to the prohibitions.	同样，美国也制定了长长的禁令豁免清单。


But most “natural” pesticides – as well as pathogen-laden animal excreta, for use as fertilizer – are permitted.	但绝大多数“天然”农药——还有作为化肥使用的布满病原体的动物粪便——都在被允许之列。


Another rationale for buying organic is that it is supposedly better for the natural environment.	选购有机食品的另一项理由是一般认为它有利于自然环境。


But the low yields of organic agriculture in real-world settings – typically 20-50% below yields from conventional agriculture – impose various stresses on farmland and increase water consumption substantially.	但现实世界中有机农业产量低下（一般比传统农业减产20-50%）——为农田带来重重压力，并导致用水量大幅提高。


According to a recent British meta-analysis, ammonia emissions, nitrogen leaching, and nitrous-oxide emissions per unit of output were higher in organic systems than in conventional agriculture, as were land use and the potential for eutrophication – adverse ecosystem responses to the addition of fertilizers and wastes – and acidification.	英国最新一项汇总分析显示有机系统单位产量的氨排放、氮淋失及氧化氮排放均高于传统农业，这还不算土地过度使用和可能的富营养化——化肥及废物所造成的不利生态影响——以及土壤酸化过程。


An anomaly of how “organic” is defined is that the designation does not actually focus on the food’s quality, composition, or safety. Rather, it comprises a set of acceptable practices and procedures that a farmer intends to use.	“有机”定义的反常之处是食品的质量、成分及安全并非关注焦点，而是集成了农民愿意使用的可以接受的作法和程序。


For example, chemical pesticide or pollen from genetically engineered plants wafting from an adjacent field onto an organic crop does not affect the harvest’s status.	比方说，有机作物沾染了栽种在相邻地块的基因工程作物随风飘散的农药和花粉并不影响作物的收获状态。


EU rules are clear that food may be labeled as organic as long as “the ingredients containing [genetically modified organisms] entered the products unintentionally” and amount to less than 0.9% of their content.	欧盟明确规定只要“[转基因生物]成分属无意进入产品且含量小于0. 9%”，食品就可以贴上有机标签。


Finally, many who are seduced by the romance of organic farming ignore its human consequences.	最后，很多受到有机耕作浪漫诱惑的人忽略了它给人类带来的后果。


American farmer Blake Hurst offers this reminder: “Weeds continue to grow, even in polycultures with holistic farming methods, and, without pesticides, hand weeding is the only way to protect a crop.”	美国农民布雷克·赫斯特提醒道：“即使采用全面养殖法混养作物野草也会不断生长，如果没有农药，就只能靠人工除草来保护作物。


The backbreaking drudgery of hand weeding often falls to women and children.	”而人工除草的苦差事往往由妇女和孩子承担。


Of course, organic products should be available for people who feel that they must have and can afford them.	当然，应该向买得起而且必须买的人提供有机产品。


But the simple truth is that buying non-organic is far more cost-effective, more humane, and more environmentally responsible.	但简单的事实是选购非有机产品更具成本效益、更人性化、也更有利于环境。


The GMO Stigma	GMO之耻


STANFORD – In August, at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines, a group of activists vandalized test fields of so-called “golden rice,” which has been genetically engineered to contain beta-carotene, a precursor of vitamin A. Some of the perpetrators were even supported by the Swedish government’s International Development Cooperation Agency via its funding of the radical Filipino group MASIPAG.	黄金大米是一种包含贝塔胡萝卜素（可转变为维生素A）的转基因大米。 其中一些暴徒甚至得到了瑞典政府的国际发展合作局（International Development Cooperation Agency）的支持，后者为菲律宾基金组织MASIPAG提供资金。


For poor people whose diet is composed largely of rice – a carbohydrate-rich but vitamin-poor source of calories – “biofortified” strains are invaluable.	大米富含碳水化合物，但缺少维生素，对于以之为主食的穷人来说，“生物强化”稻种可谓无价之宝。


In developing countries, 200-300 million preschool children are at risk of vitamin A deficiency, which compromises immune systems, increasing the body’s susceptibility to illnesses like measles and diarrheal diseases.	在发展中国家，有两到三亿儿童存在缺乏维生素A的危险，而维生素A是免疫系统的组成部分，缺少它会导致身体容易感染麻疹和腹泻等疾病。


Every year, vitamin A deficiency causes blindness in about a half-million children; some 70% of them die within a year.	每年维生素A缺乏症都要导致大约五十万儿童失明，其中70%会在一年内死去。


In September, an eminent group of scientists called upon the scientific community to “stand together in staunch opposition to the violent destruction of required tests on valuable advances, such as golden rice, that have the potential to save millions” of people from “needless suffering and death.”	9月，一组杰出科学家呼吁科学界“团结起来坚决反对针对黄金大米等宝贵进步所必须的实验的暴力破坏，这些进步可以拯救数百万”人免于“不必要的痛苦和死亡”。


But this passionate appeal fails to address the fundamental problem: the unfounded notion that there is a meaningful difference between “genetically modified organisms” and their conventional counterparts.	但这一热烈呼吁并不能解决根本性问题：毫无根据地认为“转基因生物”（GMO）和常规生物之间存在有意义的差异。


The fact is that GMOs and their derivatives do not amount to a “category” of food products.	事实是，GMO及其衍生物并不构成一“类”粮食产品。


They are neither less safe nor less “natural” than other common foods.	与其他普通粮食相比，它们既不“不安全”，也不“不自然”。


Labeling foods derived from GMOs, as some have proposed, thus implies a meaningful difference where none exists – an issue that even regulators have acknowledged.	因此，一些人所认为贴上GMO标签就意味着有意义的差异的观点纯属无稽之谈，甚至连监管者也承认这一点。


Humans have been engaging in “genetic modification” through selection and hybridization for millennia.	几百万年以来，人类一直在通过选育和杂交从事“转基因”。


Breeders routinely use radiation or chemical mutagens on seeds to scramble a plant’s DNA and generate new traits.	育种者一直在使用辐射和化学诱变剂处理种子，干扰作物的DNA，制造新的特征。


A half-century of “wide cross” hybridizations, which involve the movement of genes from one species or genus to another, has given rise to plants – including everyday varieties of corn, oats, pumpkin, wheat, black currants, tomatoes, and potatoes – that do not and could not exist in nature.	半个世纪以来的“远缘”杂交——将某个种或属的基因转移到另一个种或属中——产生了自然界不存在或不可能产生的物种，我们日常所吃的玉米、燕麦、南瓜、小麦、黑醋粟、番茄和土豆都有这样的品种。


Indeed, with the exception of wild berries, wild game, wild mushrooms, and fish and shellfish, virtually everything in North American and European diets has been genetically improved in some way.	事实上，除了野生浆果、野生动物、野生菌类以及鱼类和贝类，北美和欧洲餐桌上几乎所有东西都通过某种方式进行过基因改造。


Despite the lack of scientific justification for skepticism about genetically engineered crops – indeed, no cases of harm to humans or disruption to ecosystems have been documented – they have been the most scrutinized foods in human history.	对转基因作物的怀疑缺乏科学依据——事实上，从未有过有记录的人体伤害和生态系统破坏发生——但转基因作物仍是人类历史上被审视最严格的粮食。


The assumption that “genetically engineered” or “genetically modified” is a meaningful – and dangerous – classification has led not only to vandalism of field trials, but also to destruction of laboratories and assaults on researchers.	认为“转基因”是一种有意义的（也是危险的）的分类不但导致了对田间实验的破坏，也导致了对实验室的破坏和对研究者的人身伤害。


Moreover, the GMO classification has encouraged unscientific regulatory approaches that are not commensurate with the level of risk, and that, by discriminating against modern molecular genetic-engineering techniques, inhibit agricultural innovation that could reduce strain on the natural environment and enhance global food security.	此外，给转基因分类还鼓励了不科学的监管方针——既不能让监管和风险水平相协调，还会因为歧视现代转基因技术而阻碍可以减轻自然环境负担、提高全球粮食安全的农业创新。


Even as study after study – both formal risk assessments and “real-world” observations – has confirmed the technology’s safety, the regulatory burden placed on GMOs has continued to grow.	即使各种研究——从正规风险评估到“真实世界”观察——都确认转基因技术是安全的，GMO所承受的监管负担仍在不断增长。


This trend is making the testing and development of many crops with commercial and humanitarian potential economically unfeasible.	这一趋势让许多具有商业和人道潜力的作物试验和开发不再具有经济可行性。


Despite robust laboratory research on plants since the invention of modern genetic-engineering techniques in the early 1970’s, the commercialization of products has lagged.	尽管自20世纪70年代初现代基因工程技术发明以来，实验室研究一直相当鲁棒，但产品商业化情况一直停滞不前。


Unprovoked attention from regulators inevitably stigmatizes any product or technology.	受到监管者的无缘无故的关注必然会让产品和技术蒙受耻辱。


Endless discussion of the “coexistence” of genetically engineered and “conventional” organisms has reinforced the stigma, leading activists to pursue frivolous yet damaging litigation.	关于转基因和“传统”作物“共存”问题的没完没了的讨论加深了这一耻辱，让激进分子不断地追求徒劳甚至有害的官司。


For example, in at least four lawsuits brought against regulators in the United States, judges initially ruled that regulators had failed to comply with the procedural requirements of the US National Environmental Policy Act.	比如，在美国，至少有四件针对监管者的案子，法官的最初判决是监管者没有遵守美国国家环境政策法的程序要求。


And marketing as “natural” products that contain genetically engineered ingredients has led to lawsuits for false labeling.	而将包含转基因成分的产品宣传为“天然”产品也会引发错误标注的官司。


The discriminatory treatment of GMOs creates widespread mischief.	歧视GMO危害甚广。


In many places, the location of field trials now must be identified, even including GPS coordinates – a practice that facilitates vandalism.	在许多地方，田间试验的地点必须标出，甚至要包含GPS坐标——这让破坏变得更加容易了。


(And activists frequently destroy conventional plants inadvertently, because they are difficult to distinguish from genetically engineered varieties.)	（而激进分子经常在不经意间破坏传统作物，因为他们难以分辨哪些是转基因作物哪些不是。 ）


In 1936, the Nobel laureate Max Planck observed that scientific innovations rarely spread as a result of their opponents’ conversion; instead, opponents of innovation “gradually die out,” and the next generation accepts the breakthrough.	1936年，诺贝尔奖获得者普朗克观察到，科学创新很少因为反对者的改变而得到推广； 相反，创新的反对者会“逐渐死去”，下一代人将接受这一突破。


This was the case with vaccinations and the recognition that DNA is the stuff of heredity – and it will happen eventually with genetic engineering.	在疫苗和承认DNA是遗传物质等方面都是如此——对基因工程最终也将是如此。


Unfortunately, many will suffer needlessly in the interim.	不幸的是，在此期间很多人会受到无谓的伤害。


As University of California agricultural economist David Zilberman and his colleagues have written, the lost benefits are “irreversible, both in the sense that past harvests have been lower than they would have been if the technology had been introduced and in the sense that yield growth is a cumulative process of which the onset has been delayed.”	加州大学农业经济学家齐尔伯曼（David Zilberman）和他的同事指出，损失的好处是“不可挽回的，因为如果该技术早已引入，那么过去的收成就会比当时高； 而收成增长是一个累积过程，现在相当于初始累积被延后了。


As long as today’s activists and regulators remain convinced that GMOs represent a distinct and dangerous category of research and products, genetic engineering will fall short of its potential.	只要当今的激进分子和监管者继续认定GMO是一种不同的、危险的研究和产品类别，基因工程就无法充分实现其潜力。


That is bad news for the millions of poor people for whom genetic engineering in agriculture, medicine, and environmental science could offer a healthier, more secure future.	这对数百万穷人来说实在是坏消息，农业、医学和环境科学方面的基因工程能给他们带来更健康、更安全的未来。


Governing a World Out of Order	用秩序治理世界


WASHINGTON, DC – Can we develop an international order that will keep the peace and allow countries to play by agreed rules?	华盛顿——我们能否建立起维护和平并确保国家按规则行事的国际秩序？


That is the question that Henry Kissinger poses in his new book World Order.	这是亨利·基辛格在其新书世界秩序中提出的问题。


Unfortunately, it is the wrong question.	不幸的是，这个问题是错误的。


Kissinger defines “world order” as a concept of just international arrangements that is “thought to be applicable to the entire world.”	基辛格将“世界秩序”定义为“公认适用于整个世界”的国际协议。


Before the advent of the European Union, for example, Europe conceived of world order as a balance of great powers, in which multiple religions and forms of government could coexist.	比方说在欧盟出现之前，欧洲将世界秩序视为大国间的权力平衡，多个地区和多种政府形式可以共处其中。


As a civilization and a religion, Islam envisions the optimal world order very differently – as a caliphate, in which faith and government are united and peace prevails throughout the Dar al-Islam, or house of Islam.	身负文明和宗教双重角色的伊斯兰教所认为的世界最优秩序截然不同——他们认为应当建立政教合一的（哈里发）国家，让整个伊斯兰地区共享和平。


That is certainly not the belief of all Muslims or of the governments of Muslim-majority states, but the radicalism espoused by groups like the Islamic State seeks to spread not just codes of conduct but an entire worldview.	这无疑并非所有穆斯林或主要穆斯林政府的看法，但“伊斯兰国”等组织信奉的激进主义目的不仅限于传播一种行为规范，而是全套世界观的推行。


In Kissinger’s view, contending conceptions of world order are emerging not only in the Middle East, but also in Asia.	在基辛格看来，相互矛盾的世界秩序理念在中东和亚洲不断涌现。


China is currently playing by the international rules but is increasingly signaling that it expects to be treated as first among equals in the region (as the US has long insisted with respect to its position in the Americas).	中国目前仍然遵守国际规则，但却不断告诉世界它希望在亚洲平等国家中拥有首席地位（长期以来美国在美洲就拥有这样的地位）。


But, as China grows stronger and reclaims what it believes to be its historic position in Asia and the world, how long will it wait to insist on reshaping the international rules?	但随着中国实力不断增长并重新争取其在亚洲和世界本来拥有的历史地位，它还会等多久才提出重塑国际规则的要求？


Russia is openly breaking those rules and no longer bothering to justify itself under international law.	俄国已不再费力遵守国际法，正悍然打破现有规则。


Instead, it boasts of reclaiming territories once ruled by the Kremlin and threatens to use force to “protect” ethnic Russians from purported threats.	相反，它夸耀重新夺回曾由克里姆林宫统治的区域，并威胁使用武力“保护”所谓受到威胁的俄罗斯族。


When Russia annexed Crimea last March, Kadri Liik of the European Council on Foreign Relations pointed out the marked difference in the way it handled its invasion of Georgia in 2008.	当俄国去年3月吞并克里米亚时，欧洲外交关系理事会的卡德里·利克曾经指出克里米亚行动与2008年俄国入侵格鲁吉亚有着显著的不同。


The Russian government essentially provoked Georgia into attacking first and then crafted an elaborate justification aimed at rendering its actions compatible with international law.	俄罗斯政府基本上挑逗格鲁吉亚首先发动攻击，之后编造了一个复杂的借口以显示其行动符合国际准则。


But this time, Kadri wrote, “Moscow has challenged the whole post-Cold War European order, together with its system of rules.”	但这次，卡德里写道，“莫斯科公然挑战了整个后冷战时期的欧洲秩序和规则体系。 ”


Kissinger’s hope is that these countries and rising powers like India and presumably Brazil (he leaves Latin America out of his account of world orders) will be able to forge agreement on a set of rules that all will regard as legitimate, thereby maintaining a stable global balance of power.	基辛格希望上述国家和印度巴西这样的新兴大国（他所谓的世界秩序不包含拉丁美洲）能够就所有人都认为合法的规则达成一致，从而实现稳定的全球权力平衡。


The Westphalian principle of multiplicity will be critical, he believes, as it will be necessary to allow different countries and civilizations to operate on very different domestic principles.	他认为威斯特伐利亚多重性原则将至关重要，因为有必要让不同的国家和文明在截然不同的国内原则下共同繁荣。


An effective world order for the twenty-first century, however, must do much more than keep the peace.	但有效的21世纪世界秩序目的绝不止是维护和平。


Kissinger focuses on inter-state relations – on how, from one country’s perspective, to avoid war with other countries while deterring them from aggression or other actions likely to upset a regional or global balance of power.	基辛格重点探讨国家关系——即从某个国家的角度来看，如何在阻止其他国家发起侵略或可能破坏地区或全球权力平衡的其他行为的同时避免与这些国家发生战争。


Yet a glance at today’s headlines suggests that what is most likely to kill and displace millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people in the coming decades are global threats such as pandemics, climate change, and terrorist and criminal networks – not inter-state war.	但对今天新闻头条的匆匆一瞥显示最有可能令数百万人、甚至数亿人在今后数十年付出生命和流离失所代价的是传染病、气候变化、恐怖主义和犯罪网络等全球性威胁，而并非国与国之间的战争。


Yes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to more than 3,000 deaths.	是的，俄国入侵乌克兰已导致超过3，000人丧生。


But current projections of the spread of the Ebola virus predict a million cases by January.	但目前对埃博拉病毒的传播预测显示1月感染病例就会达到百万。


According to the World Health Organization, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has killed 36 million people, roughly ten million higher than the estimated number of military deaths in World War II, with an additional 35 million people infected.	根据世卫组织的统计数据，传染性艾滋病毒/艾滋病已经夺去了3，600万人的生命，大约比估计的二战军事死亡人数高1千万人，这还不算3，500万感染者。


Many of these global threats are closely intertwined with war, but war that is far more likely to be fought within borders than across them.	其中许多全球危机与战争息息相关，但这些战争都是国内战争，而不是国与国冲突。


Consider that roughly two-thirds of Syria’s population has been displaced by the country’s civil war, with millions living miserably in refugee camps.	想想约三分之二的叙利亚民众因内战而流离失所，数百万人在难民营凄惨地生活。


The disastrous state of health care in Liberia and Sierra Leone, where Ebola is raging, reflects decades of horrific civil war in both countries.	埃博拉病毒肆虐的利比里亚和塞拉利昂灾难性的医疗保健状况是两国数十年恐怖内战的反映。


The ongoing violence in Africa’s Great Lakes region, which has claimed millions of civilian lives, is rooted in the 1994 Rwanda genocide and the resulting flood of Hutu refugees into neighboring states.	非洲大湖区持续不断的暴力活动已经夺去了数百万民众的生命，究其根源是因为1994年卢旺达的种族灭绝和胡图族难民大批涌入邻国。


The droughts and floods caused by climate change will put millions of people on the move, first into crowded and combustible cities, and then across borders.	气候变化造成的干旱和洪水将使数百万人流离失所，首先抵达拥挤嘈杂的城市，之后越过边境进入邻国。


Russia and Canada may be happy to receive them as vast new tracts of land open up, but many other parts of the world are already crowded, which spells conflict.	俄罗斯和加拿大或许因为有大片土地而乐于接纳，但世界其他地区已经非常拥挤，正是因为拥挤引发了冲突。


Maintaining peace is mostly a matter of restraint or constraint.	维护和平主要的问题是限制和约束。


Effective global cooperation requires much more.	有效的全球合作需要的还远不止于此。


Governments must be able to come together, alongside vital actors from both business and civil society, to adopt comprehensive plans of action.	政府、企业和民间社会的重要参与者必须能够合作实施全面的行动计划。


Those plans, in turn, require funding, manpower, collective will, and enforcement capability.	这些计划反过来又需要资金、人力、集体意志和执行能力。


Yet today, faced with a virus that kills half of those it infects and the prospect that it could decimate an entire region of Africa, disrupt air travel, and put people around the world in quarantine, the world has delivered only a fraction of the needed financial and material assistance.	而今天面对着感染致死率过半、消灭非洲整个区域人口、扰乱空中飞行、使世界各地民众陷入隔离的可怕病毒，世界各国只拿出了一小部分所需的财政和物资援助。


We live in a world of global problems and largely national solutions.	我们生活的这个世界基本靠国内解决方案解决全球性问题。


The need for institutions that can respond swiftly and effectively, as domestic government does in well-governed states, is greater than ever.	人们比以前更需要像治理完善国的国内政府那样迅速有效的应对机制。


The post-WWII institutions have become insufficient.	后二战机构现在已经无法解决问题。


It is time to reform them – and to devise new structures and tools designed to address global problems.	现在是时候进行改革——设计出解决全球问题的全新结构和工具。


Henry Paulson is Wrong	Henry Paulson is Wrong


CHICAGO – When a profitable company is hit by a very large liability, the solution is not to have the government buy its assets at inflated prices.  The solution, instead, is protection under bankruptcy law, which in the United States means Chapter 11.	芝加哥-当一个赚钱的公司受到一个非常大的债务打击的时候，解决办法应该不是让政府以高价收购其资产。 相反，解决的办法是在破产法下受到保护，这在美国是指第11章。


Under Chapter 11, companies with a solid underlying business generally swap debt for equity.  Old equity holders are wiped out and old debt claims are transformed into equity claims in the new entity which continues operating with a new capital structure.	根据第11章，具有坚实的基本业务的公司一般来说把债券变成股权。 老股东没有了，在以新的资本结构继续运行的新实体中，旧有债权转化为股权要求。


Alternatively, the debt-holders can agree to reduce the face value of debt, in exchange for some warrants.	另一做法是，债权人可以同意减少债务的面值，以换取一些认股权证。


So why not use this well-established approach to solve the financial sector’s current problems?	那么为什么不利用这个建立良好的办法来解决金融业当前的难题呢？


The obvious answer is that we do not have time; Chapter 11 procedures are generally long and complex, and the current crisis has reached a point where time is of the essence.	显然，答案是我们没有时间; 一般来说，按第11章解决问题的程序是漫长而复杂的，而目前的危机已经到了时间是至关重要的地步。


But we are in extraordinary times, and the government has taken and is prepared to take unprecedented measures.	但是，我们处在非常时期，政府已经采取和准备采取前所未有的措施。


As if rescuing the big insurer AIG and prohibiting all short selling of financial stocks was not enough, now US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson proposes buying up (with taxpayers’ money) the distressed assets of the financial sector.	看来，抢救大保险公司AIG和禁止所有的卖空金融类股似乎还不够，现在美国财政部长保尔森建议购买（用纳税人的钱）金融界的不良资产。


But at what price?	但代价是什么？


If banks and financial institutions find it difficult to recapitalize (i.e., issue new equity), it is because investors are uncertain about the value of the assets in their portfolios and do not want to overpay.	如果银行和金融机构难以再融资（即发行新的股票） ，这是因为投资者们不能确定在他们的投资组合里这些资产的价值，他们不想出过高的价格。


Will government do better at valuing those assets?	可政府能更好地估价这些资产吗？


In a negotiation between government officials and a banker with a bonus at risk, who will have more clout in determining the price?	在政府官员和红包岌岌可危的银行家谈判时，谁更有影响力来决定价格？


Paulson’s plan would create a charitable institution that provides welfare to the rich – at taxpayers’ expense.	保尔森的计划将促成用纳税人的钱为富人提供福利的慈善机构的诞生。


If the government subsidy is large enough, it will succeed in stopping the crisis.	如果政府补贴足够大，它将成功地制止危机。


But, again, at what price?	但是，再说一次，代价是什么？


Aside from costing billions of taxpayer dollars, Paulson’s plan violates the fundamental capitalist principle that whoever reaps the gains also bears the losses.	除了耗资数十亿纳税人的钱之外，保尔森的计划还违反了资本主义的基本原则，即获得的收益的人也须承担损失。


Remember that in America’s Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980’s, the government had to bail out those institutions, because their deposits were federally insured.	请记住，20世纪80年代末美国的储蓄和贷款危机中，政府是不得不挽救这些机构，因为它们的存款是由联邦政府担保的。


But in this case, the government does not have to bail out the debt-holders of Bear Sterns, AIG, or any of the other financial institutions that will benefit from Paulson’s plan.	但是，在现在这种情况下，政府不一定要保释贝尔斯登 、美国国际集团或任何其他金融机构的债权人，这些机构将受益于保尔森的计划。


Since we do not have time for Chapter 11 proceedings and we do not want to bail out all the creditors, the lesser evil is to do what judges do in contentious and overextended bankruptcy processes: impose a restructuring plan on creditors, with part of the debt forgiven in exchange for equity or warrants.	由于我们没有足够的时间按照第11章程序来做，我们也不想保释所有的债权人，两害相权取其轻，是我们学习法官们在有争议的、拖延过度的破产进程中的做法：命令债权人计划重组，免除部分债务，以换取股权或认股权证。


There is precedent for such a bold move.	这样的大胆举动有过先例。


During the Great Depression, many debt contracts were indexed to gold.	在大萧条时期，许多债务合同与黄金挂钩。


So when the dollar’s convertibility into gold was suspended, the value of that debt soared, threatening many institutions’ survival.	因此，当美元与黄金之间的兑换暂停的时候，债务的价值猛增，威胁到许多机构的生存。


President Roosevelt’s administration declared the clause invalid, forcing debt forgiveness.	罗斯福总统政府宣布该条款无效，迫使了债务免除。


My colleague and current Fed Governor Randall Koszner studied this episode and showed that not only stock prices, but also bond prices, soared after the Supreme Court upheld the decision.	我的同事也是现在的美联储理事Randall Koszner研究过那一段时期，结果显示，在最高法院支持这一决定后，不仅股票价格，而且债券价格都飙升了。


How is that possible?	怎么可能？


As corporate finance experts have been saying for 30 years, having too much debt and too little equity is costly, so reducing the face value of debt can sometimes benefit not only equity-holders, but also debt-holders.	作为企业融资的专家30年来一直在说，太多的债务和太少的股本使成本过高，因此降低的债务的票面价值，不仅有利于股权持有人，有时还有利于债务持有人。


But, while debt forgiveness benefits holders of both equity and debt, debt-holders don’t voluntarily agree to it for two reasons.	但是，尽管免除债务对股票和债务持有人都有好处，债务持有人不会自愿同意这样做，这有两个原因。


First, even if each individual debt-holder benefits, he or she will benefit even more if everybody else cuts the face value of their debt and he or she does not.	首先，即使每一个债务持有人都将得益于此，但是如果别人都削减债务的面值而他或她不削减，他或她将得益更多。


Hence, everybody waits for others to move first, creating obvious delay.	因此，每个人都会等别人先有所行动，这明显会造成拖延。


Second, from a debt-holder’s point of view, a government bailout is better.	其次，从债务持有人的角度来看，政府救助会更好。


Even talk of a government bailout reduces the debt-holders’ incentive to act, making the bailout more necessary.	即使政府救助的传说也会降低债务持有人采取行动的动力，这样就更加大了救助的必要性。


As during the Great Depression and in many debt restructurings, it makes sense in the current contingency to mandate partial debt forgiveness or a debt-for-equity swap in the financial sector.	正如在经济大萧条期间和许多债务重组过程中那样，在当前的危急情况中，如要强令金融界的部分债务减免或债转股互换，这样做会有道理的。


It is a well-tested strategy, and it leaves taxpayers out of the picture.	这是一个屡试不爽的策略，这样做就不会把纳税人卷入其中。


Forcing a debt-for-equity swap or debt forgiveness would be no greater a violation of private property rights than a massive bailout.	强迫债转股互换或免除债务的做法，并不比大规模的救市更侵犯私人财产权。


But, for the major players in the financial sector, it is much more appealing to be bailed out by the taxpayers.	但是，对于主要的金融机构，由纳税人来救市具有更大的吸引力。


Indeed, for the financial industry, the appeal of Paulson’s proposal is precisely that it taxes the many and benefits the few.	事实上，对金融业来说，保尔森的建议吸引人的地方其实是它用征税来的钱为少数人谋利益。


Since the many (taxpayers) are dispersed, we cannot put up a good fight in the US Congress, whereas the financial industry is well represented politically.	由于多数人（纳税人）是分散的，他们不能在美国国会进行抗争，而金融业却在政治上有很大势力。


For six of the last 13 years, the Treasury Secretary was a Goldman Sachs alumnus.	过去13年里的6年里，财政部长是一直是高盛出来的人担任的。


The decisions that Congress must make now will affect not only the US economy’s short-term prospects, but will shape the type of capitalism that we will have for the next 50 years.	国会现在要做的决定，不仅将影响到美国经济的短期前景，而且还将影响今后50年我们拥有的是什么样的资本主义的问题。


Do we want to live in a system where profits are private, but losses are socialized, where taxpayer money is used to prop up failed firms?	难道我们希望生活在一个利润私人化但损失社会化、且纳税人的钱用来支撑经营失败的公司的制度里吗？


Or do we want to live in a system where people are held accountable for their decisions, where imprudent behavior is penalized and prudent behavior rewarded?	还是我们希望生活在一个人们对自己的决定负责、轻率的行为得到惩罚而审慎的行为得到奖赏的制度里？


For anyone who believes in free markets, the most serious risk of the current situation is that the interest of a few financiers will undermine the capitalist system’s fundamental workings.	对任何相信自由市场的人，目前的情况下最严重的风险是，几个金融家的利益将破坏资本主义制度的基本运作。


The time has come to save capitalism from the capitalists.	现在，应该是从资本家手里拯救资本主义的时候了。


How Safe Substances Become Dangerous	安全的物质怎样变得危险


PALO ALTO – Since the development of the science of toxicology in the sixteenth century, its guiding principle has been that “the dose makes the poison.”	帕洛阿尔托——自从16世纪毒理学诞生后，其指导原则一直是“剂量决定毒性。


It is a rule that applies to the medicines used by patients worldwide many billions of times a day.	”这是每天都要在全球患者身上适用多达成百上千亿次的药理规则。


The right dose of aspirin can be a therapeutic godsend, but consuming too much can be lethal.	恰当剂量的阿司匹林可以成为治病的天赐之物，但服用过量却可以致人死亡。


The principle even applies to foods: Large amounts of nutmeg or licorice are notoriously toxic.	该原则甚至适用于食品：高剂量的肉豆蔻或甘草的毒性众所周知。


The risk that a substance poses broadly depends on two factors: its inherent capacity to cause harm and one’s exposure to it.	物质带来的广义风险取决于两大要素：其固有的伤害能力和人能否接触到它。


It is a simple idea, but even some presumptive professionals seem unable to grasp it – as evidenced by the decision by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a component of the World Health Organization, to classify the commonly used herbicide 2,4-D as “possibly carcinogenic to humans.”	这是个简单的理念，但就连某些假定的专业人士似乎也无法掌握——世卫组织下属的国际癌症研究机构（IARC）将常用的 2,4-D除草剂划为“可能的人类致癌物质”就是这方面的例证。


When it comes to herbicides, the IARC seems to be on a losing streak.	在除草剂的问题上，国际癌症研究机构似乎正在创造连败记录。


The organization recently classified glyphosate, another popular herbicide, as “probably” carcinogenic, a conclusion at odds with those of regulatory agencies around the world.	该组织最近将另一种常用除草剂草甘膦也划归“可能的”致癌物质，这与世界各地监管机构的结论严重不符。


Similarly, not a single governmental agency has deemed 2,4-D a carcinogen.	同样，没有一家政府机构将2,4-D认定为致癌物。


Earlier this year, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concluded that “based on weight of evidence consideration of the available data, 2,4-D would be classified as ‘Not Likely to be Carcinogenic to Humans.’”	今年早些时候，美国环境保护署（EPA）得出结论：“基于现有数据的证据采纳权重，2,4-D应被划为‘不太可能对人类产生致癌效果’。


The European Food Safety Authority also recently concluded that “2,4-D, as currently manufactured, is unlikely to have a genotoxic potential or pose a carcinogenic risk to humans.”	”欧洲食品安全局最近也认定“按照目前的生产方式，2,4-D不太可能对人类造成遗传毒性或致癌风险。 ”


The decision by the IARC to classify substances like 2,4-D and glyphosate as potentially harmful is likely to cause alarm among farmers and consumers, who will wonder about the appropriateness of its continued use in commercial agriculture or gardening.	国际癌症研究机构将2,4-D和草甘膦等物质划为潜在有害物质可能造成农民和消费者的恐慌，他们会怀疑继续将上述物质用于商业农业或园艺是否恰当。


This would be a shame, because these are highly effective and widely used herbicides, and when the IARC makes its decisions, it does not consider whether the substance in question is actually likely to cause cancer in the real world.	这将是一种耻辱，因为上述物质都是被广泛应用的高效除草剂，而当国际癌症研究机构得出结论时，并没有考虑到相关物质在现实世界中是否真有致癌可能。


Its panels do not assess whether a chemical will cause cancer – only if it is capable of causing cancer.	其专家组并不评估某化学品会否致癌 ——而只考虑它能否致癌。


As a result, the IARC has in the past classified aloe vera, acrylamide (a substance created by frying foods, such as French fries and potato chips), cell phones, working night shifts, Asian pickled vegetables, and coffee as “probable” or “possible” carcinogens.	因此，国际癌症研究机构过去曾将芦荟、丙烯酰胺（薯条和薯片等油炸食品所产生的一种物质）、手机、上夜班、亚洲泡菜和咖啡划为“相当可能”或“可能的”致癌物。


This is because it ignores the dosage, failing to consider the likelihood of coming into contact with enough of the substance to cause actual harm.	这是因为它忽略了剂量，没有考虑到接触足够剂量的物质造成实际损害的可能性有多大。


In the case of coffee, for example, one would need to drink more than 50 cups a day, for an extended period of time, before any deleterious effects became likely.	以咖啡为例，人们需要每天饮用超过50杯，坚持相当长的时间，才有可能造成有害的影响。


Classifying 2,4-D as a cancer risk to humans ignores extensive research and analysis conducted by health authorities worldwide, including the United Nations WHO/FAO Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residue (JMPR).	将2,4-D划为可能的致癌物忽略了世界各地卫生部门、包括联合国世卫/粮农组织联合农药残留会议（JMPR）所进行的大规模分析和研究。


This body evaluates the risks of substances like 2,4-D, considering real-world variables such as the amounts in soil and nearby water, exposure to animals passing through treated fields, and the potential for direct human contact.	该机构对2,4-D等物质进行风险评估时考虑了其在土壤及附近水源中的含量、经过施用地块动物接触及人类直接接触概率等现实世界变量。


In reviews beginning in 1970, the JMPR has always found that when 2,4-D is applied correctly, it does not pose a health threat to anyone or anything on land or water.	在1970年开始的审查中，联合农药残留会议一直认定如果按正确方式施用， 2,4-D 不会危害陆地或水域中任何人或物的健康。


This finding has been affirmed by numerous government agencies, including the European Food Safety Authority, the EPA, the US Department of Agriculture, and Health Canada.	众多政府机构已经确认了上述结果，其中包括欧洲食品安全局、环保局、美国农业部和加拿大卫生部。


When the IARC, which restricts its panels to consider only a narrow spectrum of selected publications, makes a mistaken decision, the effects are harmful.	当国际癌症研究机构限制其专家组仅考虑很小范围内的特定刊物并因此得出错误结论时，会造成非常有害的后果。


Its rulings give credibility to chemophobic activists looking for headlines and raise the likelihood that substances wrongly labeled as harmful will be replaced by other products that could pose greater risks or provide fewer benefits.	上述结论给了恐化分子大肆宣扬的机会，增加了上述物质被错误地认定为有害并被其他危险更大、效益更低的产品所取代的可能。


If products such as glyphosate and 2,4-D were to become unavailable, farmers would be forced to resort to other methods to control weeds – none of them as efficient.	如果像草甘膦和2,4-D这样的产品不能使用，农民将被迫改用其他有效性更低的除草方法。


Indeed, many of the alternatives would be more toxic or require more tillage, resulting in damaging soil erosion, increased CO2 emissions, decreased crop yields, greater production costs, and higher consumer prices.	事实上，很多替代品其实毒性更大或需要更多管理，从而导致破坏性水土流失、二氧化碳排放增加、农作物产量降低、生产成本加大和消费价格上涨。


Nor would the problem be limited to farmers.	问题也不止是农民才有。


There are more than 100 prescribed uses for 2,4-D, including the control of invasive weeds on lawns, in forestry, and to enhance safety along highways, power line corridors, and rail lines.	2,4-D有100多种指定用途，包括控制侵入草坪、森林的杂草和强化高速路、电力走廊和铁路沿线的安全控制。


The process the IARC uses in coming to conclusions is not only scientifically wrong; it is harmful.	国际癌症研究机构得出结论所用的方法不仅在科学上有误； 而且会产生有害的影响。


Its decisions, which have wide exposure, pose the greatest risk to human and other animal life – at any dose.	它的结论被人们广泛接受，无论剂量大小都会严重威胁人类和其他动物的生命健康。


Overdosing on Heterodoxy Can Kill You	过于异类，反受其害


CAMBRIDGE – Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, it has been common to chastise economists for not having predicted the disaster, for having offered the wrong prescriptions to prevent it, or for having failed to fix it after it happened.	坎布里奇—2008年金融危机以来，指责经济学家没有预测到这场灾难、为预防灾难开出错误药方以及在灾难发生后没能解决灾难已经成为时尚。


The call for new economic thinking has been persistent – and justified.	对新经济思维的呼唤延绵不绝——并且不无道理。


But all that is new may not be good, and that all that is good may not be new.	但全新的东西未必好，而好的东西未必新。


The 50th anniversary of China’s Cultural Revolution is a reminder of what can happen when all orthodoxy is tossed out the window.	中国文化大革命50周年提醒我们当正统被一股脑儿打到时会发生什么。


Venezuela’s current catastrophe is another: A country that should be rich is suffering the world’s deepest recession, highest inflation, and worst deterioration of social indicators.	委内瑞拉当前的灾难则是又一次提醒：这个理应富庶的国家正在遭遇全世界最深刻的衰退、最高的通胀和最糟糕的社会指标恶化。


Its citizens, who live on top of the world’s largest oil reserves, are literally starving and dying for lack of food and medicine.	委内瑞拉公民坐拥世界第一大石油储量，却生活在名副其实的饥饿中，因为缺乏食物和药品而垂死挣扎。


While this disaster was brewing, Venezuela won accolades from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, the Economic Commission for Latin America, British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the US Center for Economic Policy Research, among others.	尽管灾难仍在发酵，但委内瑞拉曾经赢得过联合国粮农组织、拉丁美洲经济委员会（Economic Commission for Latin America）、英国工党党魁杰瑞米·科尔宾（Jeremy Corbyn）、前巴西总统卢拉、美国经济政策研究中心（Center for Economic Policy Research）和其他人的赞赏。


So what should the world learn from the country’s descent into misery?	那么，世界应该从委内瑞拉的堕落中学到什么？


In short, Venezuela is the poster child of the perils of rejecting economic fundamentals.	简言之，委内瑞拉是拒绝承认经济基本面的危险的最佳写照。


One of those fundamentals is the idea that, to achieve social goals, it is better to use – rather than repress – the market.	其中一个基本面是以下思想：要实现社会目标，最好利用——而不是抑制——市场。


After all, the market is essentially just a form of self-organization whereby everyone tries to earn a living by doing things that others find valuable.	毕竟，从根本上说，市场只不过是自我组织的一种形式，其中每个人都试图通过做对其他人有价值的事赚取生活资料。


In most countries, people buy food, soap, and toilet paper without incurring a national policy nightmare, as has happened in Venezuela.	在大部分国家，人们购买食物、肥皂和厕纸都不会像在委内瑞拉那样引起国家政策噩梦。


But suppose you do not like the outcome the market generates.	但设想你不喜欢市场所产生的结果。


Standard economic theory suggests that you can affect it by taxing some transactions – such as, say, greenhouse-gas emissions – or giving money to certain groups of people, while letting the market do its thing.	标准经济学理论认为你可以通过对某些交易课税来影响市场——比如温室气体排放税，或者可以向某些特定群体提供钱，而同时继续让市场做好自己的事。


An alternative tradition, going back to Saint Thomas Aquinas, held that prices should be “just.”	相反的传统可以追溯到圣托马斯·阿奎那，认为价格应该是“公平”的。


Economics has shown that this is a really bad idea, because prices are the information system that creates incentives for suppliers and customers to decide what and how much to make or buy.	经济学已经证明，这是个坏思想，因为价格是一个信息系统，它为供给者和顾客提供决定生产或购买多少的激励。


Making prices “just” nullifies this function, leaving the economy in perpetual shortage.	让价格“公平”会导致这一功能丧失，让经济陷入持续短缺。


In Venezuela, the Law of Just Costs and Prices is one reason why farmers do not plant.	在委内瑞拉，公平成本和价格法是农民不种地的原因之一。


For that reason, agro-processing firms shut down.	出于这一原因，农产品生产企业纷纷倒闭。


More generally, price controls create incentives to flip goods into the black market.	更一般地看，价格管制创造了让商品流入黑市的激励。


As a result, the country with the world’s most extensive system of price controls also has the highest inflation – as well as an ever-expanding police effort that jails retail managers for holding inventories and even closes the borders to prevent smuggling.	结果，价格管制制度世界最全面的委内瑞拉，通货膨胀也是世界最高——并因此导致需要越来愈多的警力抓捕囤积居奇的零售经理甚至关闭边境以防走私。


Fixing prices is a short dead-end street.	固定价格是一条短命的死胡同。


A longer one is subsidizing goods so that their price remains below cost.	补贴商品以使价格保持低于成本的水平可以维持较长时间。


These so-called indirect subsidies can quickly cause an immense economic mess.	这些所谓的暗补马上就可能造成巨大的经济混乱。


In Venezuela, subsidies for gasoline and electricity are larger than the budget for education and health care combined; exchange-rate subsidies are in a class of their own.	在委内瑞拉，汽油和电力补贴超过了教育和卫生预算之和； 汇���补贴也自成体系。


With one daily minimum wage in Venezuela, you can buy barely a half-pound (227 grams) of beef or 12 eggs, or 1,000 liters (264 gallons) of gasoline or 5,100 kWh of electricity – enough to power a small town.	在委内瑞拉，最低日薪勉强可以购买半磅（227克）牛肉或12个鸡蛋，或1,000升汽油或5,100千瓦时电力——足以够一个小镇使用。


With the proceeds of selling a dollar at the black market rate, you can buy over $100 at the strongest official rate.	用在黑市上出售1美元的所得，你可以以官方汇率买到100多美元。


Under these conditions, you are unlikely to find goods or dollars at official prices.	在这样的背景下，你不可能以官方价格买到食品或美元。


Moreover, since the government is unable to pay providers the necessary subsidy to keep prices low, output collapses, as has happened with Venezuela’s electricity and health sectors, among others.	此外，由于政府无法向供应商支付必要的补贴以保持低价，产出因此崩溃，委内瑞拉的电力和医疗等部门就是如此。


Indirect subsidies are also regressive, because the rich consume more than the poor – and hence appropriate more of the subsidy.	暗补还具有累退性质，因为富人消费多于穷人——从而获得了更多的补贴。


This is what underpins the old orthodox wisdom that if you want to change market outcomes, it is better to subsidize people directly with cash.	这凸显出旧的正统观念：如果你想改变市场结果，最好用现金明补。


Another bit of conventional wisdom is that creating the right incentive structure and securing the necessary know-how to run state-owned enterprises is very difficult.	另一个传统智慧是，创造正确的激励结构并确保必要的知识运营国有企业是十分困难的。


So the state should have only a few firms in strategic sectors or in activities that are rife with market failures.	因此，国家应该只保留战略性部门或市场失灵部门的少数企业。


Venezuela disregarded that wisdom and went on an expropriation binge.	委内瑞拉无视这一智慧，大肆进行国有化征收。


In particular, after former President Hugo Chávez was reelected in 2006, he expropriated farms, supermarkets, banks, telecoms, power companies, oil production and service firms, and manufacturing companies producing steel, cement, coffee, yogurt, detergent, and even glass bottles.	特别是，2006年前总统查韦斯获得连任后，征收了农场、超市、银行、电信、电力、石油生产和服务企业以及生产钢铁、水泥、咖啡、酸奶、洗涤剂甚至玻璃瓶的制造企业。


Productivity collapsed in all of them.	所有这些部门的生产率无不出现暴跌。


Governments often struggle to balance their books, leading to over-indebtedness and financial trouble.	政府经常难以平衡收支，导致过度负债和金融问题。


Yet fiscal prudence is one of the most frequently attacked principles of economic orthodoxy.	但财政审慎却是正统经济学原理中最常受到抨击的内容。


But Venezuela shows what happens when prudence is frowned upon and fiscal information is treated as a state secret.	但委内瑞拉表明了当审慎被抛弃、财政信息被列为国家秘密时会发生什么。


Venezuela used the 2004-2013 oil boom to quintuple its external public debt, instead of saving up for a rainy day.	委内瑞拉在2004—2013年石油繁荣时期将外部债务扩大了四倍，而没有为萧条期做好储备。


By 2013, Venezuela’s extravagant borrowing led international capital markets to shut it out, leading the authorities to print money.	2013年，委内瑞拉的肆意借贷导致国际资本市场对它关闭，促使当局转向印钞机。


This caused the currency to lose 98% of its value in the last three years.	这导致委内瑞拉货币在过去三年里跌去98%的价值。


By the time oil prices fell in 2014, the country was in no position to take the hit, with collapsing domestic production and capacity to import, leading to the current disaster.	2014年 石油价格下跌时，委内瑞拉根本无力抵御冲击，国内产量和进口能力都出现暴跌，于是引发了目前的灾难。


Orthodoxy reflects history’s painfully acquired lessons – the sum of what we regard to be true.	正统反映了沉痛的历史教训——它是我们认为的真理的总和。


But not all of it is true.	但并非所有都是真理。


Progress requires identifying errors, which in turn calls for heterodox thinking.	进步需要认识错误，而认识错误需要异类思维。


But learning becomes difficult when there are long delays between action and consequences, as when we try to regulate the water temperature while in the shower.	但当行动和结果之间有长时间延迟时，学习就变得十分困难，就像在淋浴时控制水温那样。


When reaction times are slow, exploring the heterodox is necessary, but should be done with care.	当反应时间很慢时，探索异类就是必不可少的，但也不可不慎。


When all orthodoxy is thrown out the window, you get the disaster that was the Chinese Cultural Revolution – and that is today’s Venezuela.	当正统被抛诸脑后时，你得到的将是中国文化大革命——以及眼下的委内瑞拉。


The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets	新兴市场的隐藏债务负担


LIMA – As central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gather for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Peru, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability.	利马—在全球央行行长和财政部长齐聚秘鲁参加国际货币基金组织（IMF）年会之际，新兴世界呈现出各种经济脆弱性增加的症候。


Gone are the days when IMF meetings were monopolized by the problems of the advanced economies struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis.	IMF会议被2008年金融危机后难以复苏的发达经济体问题主宰的日子一去不复返了。


Now, the discussion has shifted back toward emerging economies, which face the risk of financial crises of their own.	如今，讨论的焦点又回到了新兴经济体，它们面临着自身的金融危机风险。


While no two financial crises are identical, all tend to share some telltale symptoms: a significant slowdown in economic growth and exports, the unwinding of asset-price booms, growing current-account and fiscal deficits, rising leverage, and a reduction or outright reversal in capital inflows.	没有两次金融危机是一样的，但所有金融危机都有一些相似的症状：经济增长和出口大幅放缓，资产价格繁荣退烧，经常项目和财政赤字增加，杠杆升高，资本流入趋势彻底反转，等等。


To varying degrees, emerging economies are now exhibiting all of them.	如今，各新兴经济体以不同的程度呈现出所有这些症状。


The turning point came in 2013, when the expectation of rising interest rates in the United States and falling global commodity prices brought an end to a multi-year capital-inflow bonanza that had been supporting emerging economies’ growth.	转折点发生在2013年，美国升息和全球大宗商品价格下跌的预期结束了多年来支持新兴经济体增长的资本流入巨流。


China’s recent slowdown, by fueling turbulence in global capital markets and weakening commodity prices further, has exacerbated the downturn throughout the emerging world.	最近中国的减速进一步增加了全球资本市场动荡、压制了大宗商品价格，从而加剧了整个新兴世界的衰退。


These challenges, while difficult to address, are at least discernible.	这些挑战很难克服，但至少能够识别。


But emerging economies may also be experiencing another common symptom of an impending crisis, one that is much tougher to detect and measure: hidden debts.	然而新兴经济体可能还出现了另一个危机即将到来的普遍症状，这一症状很难监测和衡量，它就是隐藏债务。


Sometimes connected with graft, hidden debts do not usually appear on balance sheets or in standard databases.	隐藏债务有时和贪污有关，它常常不出现在资产负债表或标准数据库中。


Their features morph from one crisis to the next, as do the players involved in their creation.	其特征在一场危机和下一场危机中有所不同，来自不同的制造者。


As a result, they often go undetected, until it is too late.	结果，它们常常等到为时已晚时才被发现。


Indeed, it was not until after the eruption of the 1994-1995 peso crisis that the world learned that Mexico’s private banks had taken on a significant amount of currency risk through off-balance-sheet borrowing (derivatives).	事实上，直到1994—1995年比索危机爆发，世界才发现墨西哥私有银行通过表外借贷（衍生品）承担了巨大的货币风险。


Likewise, before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the IMF and financial markets were unaware that Thailand’s central-bank reserves had been nearly depleted (the $33 billion total that was reported did not account for commitments in forward contracts, which left net reserves of only about $1 billion).	类似地，在1997年亚洲金融危机前，IMF和金融市场都不知道泰国央行储备已基本耗尽（报告的330亿美元总量并未计入远期合约，实际的净储备只有大约10亿美元）。


And, until Greece’s crisis in 2010, the country’s fiscal deficits and debt burden were thought to be much smaller than they were, thanks to the use of financial derivatives and creative accounting by the Greek government.	而在2010年希腊危机爆发前，拜希腊政府使用金融衍生品和创造性会计手段所赐，希腊财政赤字和债务负担一直被认为比实际情况小得多。


So the great question today is where emerging-economy debts are hiding.	因此，今天的大问题是新兴经济体债务藏在哪里。


And, unfortunately, there are severe obstacles to exposing them – beginning with the opaqueness of China’s financial transactions with other emerging economies over the past decade.	不幸的是，暴露这些债务障碍重重——首先就是过去十年中中国与其他新兴经济体的金融交易极不透明。


During its domestic infrastructure boom, China financed major projects – often connected to mining, energy, and infrastructure – in other emerging economies.	在国内基础设施繁荣期间，中国为其他新兴经济体的大工程——主要与矿产、能源和基础设施有关——提供融资。


Given that the lending was denominated primarily in US dollars, it is subject to currency risk, adding another dimension of vulnerability to emerging-economy balance sheets.	这些贷款主要用美元计价，因此存在货币风险，从而给新兴经济体资产负债表增添了新的脆弱性。


But the extent of that lending is largely unknown, because much of it came from development banks in China that are not included in the data collected by the Bank for International Settlements (the primary global source for such information).	这些贷款的数字基本无从知晓，因为其中有许多来自中国的开发银行，它们的数据不在国际清算算银行（这类信息的主要全球来源）所收集的数据之内。


And, because the loans were rarely issued as securities in international capital markets, it is not included in, say, World Bank databases, either.	此外，这些贷款很少作为证券在国际资本市场上发行，因此也未进入（比如）世界银行的数据库。


Even where data exist, the figures must be interpreted with care.	即使有数据，也必须仔细解读数字。


For example, data collected on a project-by-project basis by the Global Economic Governance Initiative and the Inter-American Dialog could provide some insight into Chinese lending to several Latin American economies.	比如，全球经济治理计划（Global Economic Governance Initiative）和泛美对话（Inter-American Dialog）逐项目（project-by-project）收集的数据可以为中国对某些拉美经济提的贷款提供一些洞见。


For example, it seems that, from 2009 to 2014, total Chinese lending to Venezuela amounted to 18% of the country’s annual GDP, and Ecuador received Chinese loans exceeding 10% of its GDP.	比如，该数据显示，从2009年到2014年，中国对委内瑞拉贷款总量达到了该国GDP的18%，厄瓜多尔所获得中国贷款超过了GDP的10%。


Chinese lending to Brazil was closer to 1% of GDP, while lending to Mexico was comparatively trivial.	中国对巴西贷款接近后者GDP的1%，对墨西哥贷款相对而言较少（见图）。


But actual disbursements may have fallen short of the original plans, meaning that these countries’ debts to China are lower than estimated.	但实际支付款可能比原始的计划要少，这意味着这些国家对中国债务比估计的要低。


Alternatively – and more likely – the data may not include some projects, lenders, or borrowers, meaning that the debts could be much higher.	也有可能——可能性更大——这些数据未包括某些项目、贷款人或借款人，这意味着债务可能要大得多。


Moreover, other forms of borrowing – such as trade finance, which is skewed toward shorter maturities – are not included in these figures.	此外，其他形式的借贷——比如期限较短的贸易融资——未包含在这些数字中。


Currency-swap agreements, which have been important for Brazil and Argentina, must also be added to the list.	对巴西和阿根廷来说十分重要的货币互换协议也必须加入到清单中。


(This highlights the importance of tracking net, rather than gross, reserves.)	（这突显出追踪净储备而非总储备的重要性。 ）


In short, though emerging economies’ debts seem largely moderate by historic standards, it seems likely that they are being underestimated, perhaps by a large margin.	简言之，尽管新兴经济体的债务从历史标准看没什么大不了，但有可能它们的债务被低估了，并且是严重低估。


If so, the magnitude of the ongoing reversal in capital flows that emerging economies are experiencing may be larger than is generally believed – potentially large enough to trigger a crisis.	果真如此的话，目前新兴经济体所面临的资本流方向逆转趋势的程度可能比普遍认为的更严重——有可能严重到触发危机。


In this context, keeping track of opaque and evolving financial linkages is more important than ever.	在这样的情况下，跟踪不断演化的不透明的金融联系比以往任何时候都更重要。


High Anxiety	高度焦虑


CHICAGO – The United States has reached a point where almost half its population is described as being in some way mentally ill, and nearly a quarter of its citizens – 67.5 million – have taken antidepressants.	芝加哥—美国已经到了其一半的人口都被描述为患有某种程度的精神疾病的地步。 近四分之一的美国人—6750万人—服用过抗抑郁药物。


These eye-popping statistics have sparked a widespread, sometimes rancorous debate about whether people are taking far more medication than is needed for problems that may not even be mental disorders.	这些让人大跌眼镜的数据引发了广泛的，有时甚至是针锋相对的辩论。 辩论的主题是人们是否因为一些甚至不是精神疾患的毛病过量服用了药物。


Studies indicate that 40% of all patients fall short of the diagnoses that doctors and psychiatrists give them, yet 200 million prescriptions are still written annually in the US to treat depression and anxiety.	研究表明40%的患者的病情达不到大夫或心理医生所诊断的程度，但在美国每年会开出2亿张治疗抑郁和焦虑的处方。


Those who defend such widespread use of prescription drugs insist that a significant part of the population is under-treated and, by inference, under-medicated.	那些捍卫广泛使用处方药的人坚持认为美国人口中有相当一部分是被治疗不足的，言下之意就是用药不足。


Those opposed to such rampant use of drugs note that diagnostic rates for bipolar disorder, in particular, have skyrocketed by 4,000% and that overmedication is impossible without over-diagnosis.	而那些反对如此普遍使用药物的人则特别指出狂躁抑郁症的诊断率爆增了40倍，没有过度诊断也就不可能有过度用药。


To help settle this long-standing dispute, I studied why the number of recognized psychiatric disorders has ballooned so dramatically in recent decades.	为了帮助化解这一长期的争论，我对在过去几十年里被确认的精神疾病数量大幅增加的原因进行了研究。


In 1980, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders added 112 new mental disorders to its third edition ( DSM-III ).	在1980年，《精神疾病诊断及统计手册》第三版( DSM-III )中新增了112种疾病。


Fifty-eight more disorders appeared in the revised third (1987) and fourth (1994) editions.	在其修订版(1987)和第四版(1994)中共又增加了58种。


With over a million copies in print, the manual is known as the bible of American psychiatry; certainly it is an invoked chapter and verse in schools, prisons, courts, and by mental-health professionals around the world.	该书的总印数超过了100万册，被看作美国精神病学的圣经； 当然它的章节和片断还在学校、监狱、法庭以及被世界各地的精神健康专业人士引用。


The addition of even one new diagnostic code has serious practical consequences.	哪怕每增加一条新的诊断规则都会产生严重的实际后果。


What, then, was the rationale for adding so many in 1980?	那么，是什么原因使得该书在1980年新增加了这么多的规则呢？


After several requests to the American Psychiatric Association, I was granted complete access to the hundreds of unpublished memos, letters, and even votes from the period between 1973 and 1979, when the DSM-III task force debated each new and existing disorder.	在向美国心理协会请求数次之后，我才被允许能够完全接触到1973至1979年之间的数百件备忘录、信件甚至投票。 而这段时期正好是 DSM-III 工作小组就新的和现有的疾病进行讨论的阶段。


Some of the work was meticulous and commendable.	有的工作是细致而值得称道的。


But the overall approval process was more capricious than scientific.	但总体的批准流程确却是随意性有余而科学性不足。


DSM-III grew out of meetings that many participants described as chaotic.	DSM-III 是在被很多参与者描绘为混乱的一次次会议中渐露真容的。


One observer later remarked that the small amount of research drawn upon was “really a hodgepodge –scattered, inconsistent, and ambiguous.”	一位观察者后来指出工作小组所参考的少量研究“真是一锅大杂烩—分散、相互矛盾并且模糊不清。


The interest and expertise of the task force was limited to one branch of psychiatry: neuropsychiatry.	”而该小组的兴趣和专长仅限于精神病学的一个分支：神经精神病学。


That group met for four years before it occurred to members that such one-sidedness might result in bias.	这个小组成立4年之后其成员们才意识到这种片面性可能会造成偏见。


Incredibly, the lists of symptoms for some disorders were knocked out in minutes.	难以置信的是，有些疾病的症状清单只用了几分钟就确定了。


The field studies used to justify their inclusion sometimes involved a single patient evaluated by the person advocating the new disease.	用以确认其全面程度的临床研究有时仅包括提出这一新病的医生对一个病例的评估。


Experts pressed for the inclusion of illnesses as questionable as “chronic undifferentiated unhappiness disorder” and “chronic complaint disorder,” whose traits included moaning about taxes, the weather, and even sports results.	专家们被催促对很多新的疾病进行确认。 其中甚至有“慢性无明显特征不快乐症”和“慢性抱怨症”这些令人啼笑皆非的种类，其主要特点包括对税收、天气和甚至体育比赛结果的叨念。


Social phobia (later dubbed “social anxiety disorder”) was one of seven new anxiety disorders created in 1980.	社交恐惧症（后被称作“社交焦虑症”）就是在1980年所确认的7种新的精神疾病之一。


At first it struck me as a serious condition.	起初我认为这是一种严重的疾病。


By the 1990’s experts were calling it “the disorder of the decade,” insisting that as many as one in five Americans suffers from it.	到了1990年代，专家们称之为“近十年最大的精神疾病”，并坚持认为有近五分之一的美国人罹患此病。


Yet the complete story turned out to be rather more complicated.	然而整个事情的过程其实更加复杂。


For starters, the specialist who in the 1960’s originally recognized social anxiety (London-based Isaac Marks, a renowned expert on fear and panic) strongly resisted its inclusion in DSM-III as a separate disease category.	首先，在1960年代最早发现社交焦虑的专家（伦敦的Isaac Marks，一位在恐惧和惊恐疾病方面的著名专家）就坚决反对将其作为一种专门的病种列入 DSM-III 。


The list of common behaviors associated with the disorder gave him pause: fear of eating alone in restaurants, avoidance of public toilets, and concern about trembling hands.	一些与该症相关的寻常行为让他迟疑了：害怕在餐馆独自用餐、避免使用公厕和担心颤抖的手。


By the time a revised task force added dislike of public speaking in 1987, the disorder seemed sufficiently elastic to include virtually everyone on the planet.	当经过人员调整的工作小组在1987年将讨厌在公众场合发言作为一种症状之后，这种疾病似乎可以涵盖我们地球上的每一个人了。


To counter the impression that it was turning common fears into treatable conditions, DSM-IV added a clause stipulating that social anxiety behaviors had to be “impairing” before a diagnosis was possible.	为了避免给人以将普通恐惧变成疾病的印象， DSM 的第四版特别增加了一条规定，即社交焦虑行为必须在“造成损害”的情况下才能被诊断为疾病。


But who was holding the prescribers to such standards?	但谁能确保处方的出具者贯彻这一标准呢？


Doubtless, their understanding of impairment was looser than that of the task force.	毫无疑问，他们对造成伤害的理解比工作小组要宽松。


After all, despite the impairment clause, the anxiety disorder mushroomed; by 2000, it was the third most common psychiatric disorder in America, behind only depression and alcoholism.	毕竟，即便在有了这条规定的情况下，焦虑症患者还是急剧增加； 到2000年，它已排在抑郁和酗酒之后成为美国的第三大精神疾病。


Over-medication would affect fewer Americans if we could rein in such clear examples of over-diagnosis.	如果我们能够遏制这些明显的过度诊断的例子，那么就不会有那么多的美国人受到过度用药的影响。


We would have to set the thresholds for psychiatric diagnosis a lot higher, resurrecting the distinction between chronic illness and mild suffering.	我们必须大幅提升精神病诊断的门槛，重新建立慢性疾病和轻度失调之间的区别。


But there is fierce resistance to this by those who say they are fighting grave mental disorders, for which medication is the only viable treatment.	但那些声称正与只能依靠药物治疗的严重精神疾病作战的人制造了极大的阻力。


Failure to reform psychiatry will be disastrous for public health.	如果不能对精神病的诊疗实行改革将会对公共健康造成灾难性的后果。


Consider that apathy, excessive shopping, and overuse of the Internet are all serious contenders for inclusion in the next edition of the DSM, due to appear in 2012.	想想看，冷漠、过度购物和过度使用因特网都极有可能被收入将在2012年出版的下一版 DSM 中。


If the history of psychiatry is any guide, a new class of medication will soon be touted to treat them.	如果精神病学的历史可资借鉴的话，那么又有一类新的药物很快就能上市对它们进行治疗。


Sanity must prevail: if everyone is mentally ill, then no one is.	健全的心智必须成为主流：如果每个人患有精神疾病，那么就没有人患病了。


When Interest Rates Rise	当利率上升


CAMBRIDGE – Long-term interest rates are now unsustainably low, implying bubbles in the prices of bonds and other securities.	美国剑桥—如今，长期利率极低，这是不可持续的，导致了债券和其他证券存在泡沫。


When interest rates rise, as they surely will, the bubbles will burst, the prices of those securities will fall, and anyone holding them will be hurt.	当利率上升时——必将如此——泡沫就会破裂，这些证券的价格将下跌，持有者将受伤。


To the extent that banks and other highly leveraged financial institutions hold them, the bursting bubbles could cause bankruptcies and financial-market breakdown.	由于银行和其他高杠杆金融机构都是这些证券的持有者，因此泡沫破灭可能导致破产和金融市场崩溃。


The very low interest rate on long-term United States Treasury bonds is a clear example of the current mispricing of financial assets.	毫无疑问，美国长期国债的超低利率是当前金融资产错误定价的例子。


A ten-year Treasury has a nominal interest rate of less than 2%.	十年期美国国债的名义利率还不到2%。


Because the inflation rate is also about 2%, this implies a negative real interest rate, which is confirmed by the interest rate of -0.6% on ten-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), which adjust interest and principal payments for inflation.	由于通货膨胀率也在2%左右，因此实际利率是负的，这一点可以从十年期通胀保护国债（TIPS，其还本付息额须经通胀调整）上得到映证，十年期TIPS利率为-0. 6%。


Historically, the real interest rate on ten-year Treasuries has been above 2%; thus, today’s rate is about two percentage points below its historical average.	从历史上看，十年期美国国债的实际利率一直高于2%； 因此，眼下约2%的利率低于历史平均水平。


But those historical rates prevailed at times when fiscal deficits and federal government debt were much lower than they are today.	但历史利率是在财政赤字和联邦政府债务远比今天低的时期录得的。


With budget deficits that are projected to be 5% of GDP by the end of the coming decade, and a debt/GDP ratio that has roughly doubled in the past five years and is continuing to grow, the real interest rate on Treasuries should be significantly higher than it was in the past.	再过十年，预算赤字预计将达GDP的5%，而债务/GDP比率在过去五年中翻了一番且将继续上升，因此美国国债实际利率应该远比过去高。


The reason for today’s unsustainably low long-term rates is not a mystery.	眼下的不可持续低长期利率并没有什么神秘原因。


The Federal Reserve’s policy of “long-term asset purchases,” also known as “quantitative easing,” has intentionally kept long-term rates low.	美联储通过“长期资产购买”政策，即“量化宽松”，有意地将利率维持在低水平。


The Fed is buying Treasury bonds and long-term mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $85 billion a month, equivalent to an annual rate of $1,020 billion.	美联储以每月850亿美元的节奏买入美国国债和长期按揭支持证券，即每年购买10200亿美元。


Since that exceeds the size of the government deficit, it implies that private markets do not need to buy any of the newly issued government debt.	如此规模甚至超过了政府赤字，它意味着私人市场不再需要购买任何新发政府债务。


The Fed has indicated that it will eventually end its program of long-term asset purchases and allow rates to rise to more normal levels.	美联储已经暗示它将最终结束其长期资产购买计划，让利率升至较为正常的水平。


Although it has not indicated just when rates will rise or how high they will go, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the rate on ten-year Treasuries will rise above 5% by 2019 and remain above that level for the next five years.	尽管它并未暗示何时利率会上升以及会升到何种程度，但国会预算办公室（CBO）预计，十年期美国国债利率将在2019年升至5%以上，并在未来五年中一直高于5%。


The interest rates projected by the CBO assume that future inflation will be only 2.2%.	CBO的利率预测有一个假设，即未来通胀只有2. 2%。


If inflation turns out to be higher (a very likely outcome of the Fed’s recent policy), the interest rate on long-term bonds could be correspondingly higher.	如果通胀有所上升（考虑到美联储的当前政策，这极有可能），长期债券的利率可能也会随之升高。


Investors are buying long-term bonds at the current low interest rates because the interest rate on short-term investments is now close to zero.	投资者正在以当前低利率买入长期债券，因为目前短期投资利率接近于零。


In other words, buyers are getting an additional 2% current yield in exchange for assuming the risk of holding long-term bonds.	换句话说，买家以2%的更高的当前收益率交换持有长期债券的风险。


That is likely to be a money-losing strategy unless an investor is sagacious or lucky enough to sell the bond before interest rates rise.	这极有可能是赔钱策略，除非投资者聪明地或幸运地在利率上升前卖出债券。


If not, the loss in the price of the bond would more than wipe out the extra interest that he earned, even if rates remain unchanged for five years.	若非如此，债券价格的损失将超过利息的升高，即便利率在五年中维持不变。


Here is how the arithmetic works for an investor who rolls over ten-year bonds for the next five years, thus earning 2% more each year than he would by investing in Treasury bills or bank deposits.	投资者延长持有十年期证券五年时间，从而每年比投资短期国债或银行存款多赚2%，他最后的结果如何？


Assume that the interest rate on ten-year bonds remains unchanged for the next five years and then rises from 2% to 5%.	假设十年期债券利率在未来五年中保持不变，然后从2%升至5%。


During those five years, the investor earns an additional 2% each year, for a cumulative gain of 10%.	在这五年中，该投资者每年多赚2%，累计收益10%。


But when the interest rate on a ten-year bond rises to 5%, the bond’s price falls from $100 to $69.	但当十年期债券利率升至5%时，债券价格将从100降至69。


The investor loses $31 on the price of the bond, or three times more than he had gained in higher interest payments.	投资者在债券价格上损失31，三倍于他在利息增加上的收益。


The low interest rate on long-term Treasury bonds has also boosted demand for other long-term assets that promise higher yields, including equities, farm land, high-yield corporate bonds, gold, and real estate.	长期美国国债的低利率还提振了其他高收益长期资产的需求，包括股票、农地、高收益公司债券、黄金和房地产。


When interest rates rise, the prices of those assets will fall as well.	当利率上升时，这些资产的价格也会下跌。


The Fed has pursued its strategy of low long-term interest rates in the hope of stimulating economic activity.	美联储的低长期利率战略的意图是刺激经济活动。


At this point, the extent of the stimulus seems very small, and the risk of financial bubbles is increasingly worrying.	目前，刺激的规模似乎太小，而金融泡沫风险在与日俱增。


The US is not the only country with very low or negative real long-term interest rates.	美国并不是唯一一个长期利率极低甚至为负的国家。


Germany, Britain, and Japan all have similarly low long rates.	德国、英国和日本都存在极低的长��利率。


And, in each of these countries, it is likely that interest rates will rise during the next few years, imposing losses on holders of long-term bonds and potentially impairing the stability of financial institutions.	这些国家的利率都有可能在未来几年中上升，给长期债券持有者带来损失，并可能破坏金融机构稳定。


Even if the major advanced economies’ current monetary strategies do not lead to rising inflation, we may look back on these years as a time when official policy led to individual losses and overall financial instability.	即便主要发达国家的当前货币战略并未导致通胀上升，从未来回首现在，我们仍会认为这是个官方政策导致个人损失和总体金融动荡的时期。


Reinvigorating Egypt’s Economy	重振埃及经济


NEWPORT BEACH – Some two years into Egypt’s grass-roots revolution, the country’s economy is in a worrisome downward spiral.	纽波特比奇——埃及草根革命两年后，国内经济陷入到令人忧虑的螺旋下降周期。


A growing number of people, inside and outside of the country, are starting to blame the revolution itself for derailing an economy that was growing, reducing its external-debt burden, and maintaining a comfortable cushion of international reserves.	国内外越来越多的人开始将经济增长脱轨、外债负担加重、国际储备缓冲消失的乱象归咎于革命本身。


Blaming the revolution is the wrong approach to Egypt’s current economic woes.	埃及目前的经济困境不应归咎于革命。


Yet its appeal to some is understandable, given that the country’s economic situation has continued to worsen over the last few months.	但鉴于过去几个月国家经济形势持续恶化，这种想法的出现也可以理解。


Growth is anemic, unemployment is high, and new investment has fallen off dramatically – all of which complicate already-difficult financial, social, and political conditions.	经济增长乏力、失业泛滥、新增投资大幅下降等让本已困顿的财政、社会和政治条件更加复杂难解。


The result is a growing threat of several vicious circles at once.	埃及正受到多重恶性循环的威胁。


Domestic supply disruptions are now fueling inflation and compounding the problems of a subsidy-laden national budget.	国内供应中断在引发通胀的同时加剧了预算不堪补贴重负的问题。


They have also aggravated the weakness of external finances, contributing to a sharp drop in international reserves that has been contained only by exceptional loans and deposits from abroad.	供应中断导致外部财政疲软及国际储备锐减，只能靠国外特殊存贷款来加以控制。


Inadequate growth and higher inflation impose a particularly severe burden on Egypt’s most vulnerable.	增长放缓和通胀攀高给埃及弱势群体造成的负担尤其严重。


Public safety nets are overstretched, with too many poor people falling through.	公共安全网络不堪重负，太多穷人无法得到救济。


Moreover, other support networks – including income opportunities in tourism, the informal sector, and charitable and family support – are crumbling under the pressure of growing poverty.	此外，旅游业收入、非正规部门和慈善家庭救济等其他扶助网络也在不断加剧的贫困重压下摇摇欲坠。


This broad set of spiraling difficulties has led credit-rating agencies to slash Egypt’s rating.	困难众多并且不断加剧导致信贷评级机构持续下调埃及评级。


It is also discouraging foreign direct investment, as is the discrediting of Egypt’s police forces.	上述因素和声名狼藉的警察部队共同抑制了国外直接投资。


As a result, still more sources of working and investment capital are disrupted, amplifying the impact of domestic capital flight.	结果导致更多营运及投资资金中断，从而放大了国内资本外逃的影响力。


None of this facilitates the political reconciliation and national unity that Egypt needs to complete the most difficult of all revolutionary pivots: from dismantling an oppressive past to building a better future.	所有这些都对成功营造政治和解及民族团结气氛，协助埃及完成从摧毁受压迫过去向建设美好未来过渡的艰巨革命任务不利。


Indeed, having suffered from post-revolutionary institutional and political dysfunctions, economic decline is now itself fueling these destabilizers.	事实上，在受困于后革命时期政治体制紊乱造成障碍的同时，现在是经济衰退本身助长了这些不稳定因素。


To be fair, governments – first under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and now under the Muslim Brotherhood – have recognized the challenges.	公平地讲，由武装部队最高委员会和穆斯林兄弟会领导的政府先后对上述问题有所认识。


Their responses, however, have fallen short, following a familiar sequence that begins with waiting for an endogenous bounce and aspiring to self-reliance.	但他们的共同特点是应对不力，先是静候内源性反弹又片面强调自力更生解决问题。


When no miracle arrives, they opt for capital controls and consider asset sales and leases while courting those once viewed as having perpetuated the old order.	当奇迹未能如约而至，他们又忙于推行资本管制，在博取旧秩序欢心的同时依赖出售和租赁资产来解决问题。


The post-revolutionary government’s initial narrative characterized Egypt’s economic malaise as temporary and self-correcting.	后革命政府起初把埃及经济不景气描述为可以自我调节的临时问题。


Having overthrown Hosni Mubarak’s iron-fisted 30-year-old regime in a remarkably quick and relatively peaceful manner, Egypt’s revolutionary masses were to leave the streets and pursue an all-out drive for economic prosperity and social justice.	在以相对和平的方式迅雷不及掩耳地推翻穆巴拉克30年铁腕政权后，埃及的革命群众理应离开街道，全力建设经济繁荣和社会正义。


Their efforts would be supported by the re-orientation of public institutions (and governance more broadly) away from benefiting the privileged few toward an ethos of service to all of the country’s citizens.	公共机构（和公众治理）从保护少数特权阶层到全民服务的重新定位将为群众运动提供强有力的支持。


This narrative reflected (understandable) revolutionary exuberance rather than realities on the ground.	不难理解，这种说法反映的是革命热情而非客观现实。


It takes years to reform institutions.	机构改革需要多年才能完成。


Economic and financial transmission lines cannot be rerouted quickly. Discredited businesses cannot be replaced overnight.	经济和金融线路的重建不可能一蹴而就，此外也无法在一夜间取代那些声名狼藉的企业。


Credible political parties are not easy to organize on the fly.	仓促间建设可信的政党绝非易事。


And many of those who bravely fought for freedom had little political experience, placing an even greater premium on great leadership to channel Egyptians’ enormous energy – and their demands for greater social justice – into a shared vision and common purpose.	众多为自由而战的勇士几乎没有政治经验，从而进一步凸显出伟大领袖在将埃及民众的巨大能量及其对社会正义的要求转化为共同目标和愿景中的重要性。


The resulting power vacuums were filled by those whose prior positions in society gave them an inside track at the time of the popular uprising.	以往社会地位便于在民众起义时捷足先登的小部分人填补了随之而来的权力真空。


They assumed power with a set of ideas and operating procedures that had to catch up with the new Egypt.	他们的执政思路和程序必须迎头赶上新埃及的需求。


As the economy struggled, optimism gave way to a more defensive and insular view that values self-reliance.	在经济挣扎中，偏重于自力更生的狭隘防御观念取代了乐观情绪。


Accompanied by creeping economic controls, the narrative became more nationalistic.	在悄然加强��济控制的过程中，政府的说法更多融入了民族主义情绪。


Loyalty, rather than merit, drove key appointments, making policy management even more difficult.	决定关键任命的是效忠与否而非自身优势，从而加大了政策管理的难度。


With this approach offering no better chance at success, the country has been pushed back to pursuing measures that, at least in the mind of much of the public, are associated with the old regime.	因为无法提供更多成功机会，埃及被逼无奈重新启用在公众看来常被旧政权采用的经济政策。


Securing a loan from the International Monetary Fund has become the principal objective of economic management, coupled with other anxious attempts to raise financing.	争取国际货币基金组织贷款成为经济管理的主要目标，此外还有筹措资金的急迫尝试。


But, absent a fundamental policy revamp, the most that this can deliver is a few months of relative financial calm, albeit at a cost for the subsequent future.	但是在根本政策改革缺位的情况下，这样做顶多争取到几个月的金融平静，此外还要牺牲掉未来的利益。


What Egypt needs today cannot be provided only by IMF loans and asset leases.	仅凭国际货币基金组织的贷款和资产租赁无法满足埃及今日之所需。


That is the bad news.	这是坏消息。


The good news is that, as someone who has followed similar cases for more than 30 years, I can say with confidence that Egypt has all the components needed to restore economic and financial stability: resources, people, dynamism, entrepreneurship, location, and regional and global linkages.	但好消息是作为从事30年改革研究的学者，我可以满怀信心地保证埃及拥有恢复经济和金融稳定的一切因素：资源、人才、活力、创业精神、地理位置和区域及全球联系。


Egypt also has a powerful secret weapon that is yet to be fully deployed – a generation of young people who, after years of alienation and repression, believe that they can (and should) influence the country’s destiny.	埃及尚有一项强大的秘密武器有待部署——那就是在经历多年的异化和镇压后，整整一代年轻人相信自己可以（而且应当）影响国家的命运。


Already, some are making a notable difference on the ground, attracting widespread admiration.	目前有些年轻人已经开始推动改革，并且得到了公众由衷的敬佩。


Egypt is not a country where economic sectors and segments of the population can succeed despite the government.	有效管理是埃及经济和民众取得成功的前提。


The government must provide the context to restart the engines of economic recovery; and policies should serve as growth accelerators by providing development gateways for the energetic young, the restive poor, and the pressured middle class.	政府必须创造重启经济复苏引擎的环境； 政策理应助推经济增长，为精力充沛的年轻人、躁动的贫困人口和倍感压力的中产阶级创造发展的未来。


This brings us back to the interactions between economics, politics, and finance, which are now fueling a tailspin that is harming Egypt’s citizens and threatening their children’s future.	这背后的决定因素是经济、政治和金融领域的互动，由此造成的失控严重影响埃及民众并威胁孩子们的未来。


Appropriate political reforms must come first; when they do, Egypt’s economic and financial revival will surprise many with its buoyancy and speed.	必须首先进行恰如其分的政治改革； 如果做到这点，埃及经济及金融复苏的活力和增速将令很多人大吃一惊。


Think of a car that can and should achieve great performance based on its strong internal engine.	这就好比一辆引擎强劲的汽车应当表现出卓越的动力。


Egypt is capable of speedy economic growth and durable financial health.	埃及完全可以将快速经济增长和长期金融稳定变成现实。


Without determined efforts at political progress and unity, however, it will remain stuck in neutral – and could slip into reverse.	但没有政治团结和进步的坚定努力，它将继续陷于停顿，并有可能滑向衰退。


After all, the large bonuses paid to banks’ CEOs as they led their firms to ruin and the economy to the brink of collapse are hard to reconcile with the belief that individuals’ pay has anything to do with their social contributions.	毕竟，银行CEO导致企业倒闭、经济险些崩溃，但仍然获得丰厚奖金，这���个人收入必与社会贡献的信念无法调和。


High Noon at the IMF	正午的国际货币基金组织


This month’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings in Washington will bring together the world’s top finance ministers and central bankers at a critical juncture for the global economy.	本月在华盛顿召开的国际货币基金组织会议将是世界上各大国的财政部长和央行行长在全球经济的一个危急关头的一次聚会。


For starters, the roof is starting to collapse on the global housing bubble, as housing markets begin to freeze up not only in the United States, but also in many other countries, such as high-flying Spain.	首先，全球房地产泡沫的屋顶正开始塌陷，因为不但是美国的房地产市场开始变得冷清，其他许多国家，包括房价飞涨的西班牙也正面临这一局面。


Moreover, money markets, especially in Europe, remain traumatized by the festering global credit crunch.	此外，货币市场，尤其是在欧洲，依然饱受蔓延的全球信用危机的创伤。


Record-high food and energy prices, combined with sharply rising wages in China, are pushing up inflation in much of the world.	中国创历史新高的食品和能源价格加上快速增长的工资水平，正推动着世界上大多数地方的通货膨胀。


Last, but not least, the US productivity boom is decelerating.	最后但不是最次要的一点是美国的生产力繁荣正在减速。


These combined pressures will make it far more difficult for central banks to sustain the so-called “Goldilocks” economy (“just right” inflation and growth).	这些融合在一起的压力使得中央银行要再维持所谓的“金发女孩经济”（“恰如其分”的通货膨胀和增长）变得越来越困难了。


At the same time, the outside world will be looking especially carefully at what, if anything, officials plan to do if the dollar continues to sink.	与此同时，外界将非常仔细地观察如果美元继续下跌官员们将会如何应对（如果他们会应对的话）。


Though exchange rates are notoriously unpredictable, the best guess is that a slow unwinding of the massive US trade deficit will keep the dollar on a path of gradual long-term decline.	尽管众所周知汇率的不可预测的，但是大家预言美国庞大的贸易赤字的缓慢冲销将使美元从长期来看会逐渐下跌。


But the fact that several Asian and emerging-market countries are resisting this decline by buying dollars is putting inordinate pressures on the more flexible currencies, such as the euro and the Canadian dollar, which are trading at record levels.	但是一些亚洲和新兴市场国家通过购买美元来抵御这种下跌的状况正在给更加灵活的货币，比如欧元和加元施加过度的压力，这些货币现在都处于历史高位。


(What are the Chinese planning to do with all their ever-growing $1.4 trillion in reserves?	（中国人 正 准备如何处理他们还在不断增长的1万4千亿美元的外汇储备呢？


Do they intend to give foreign athletes paper bags stuffed with dollars as a welcoming present at the Olympic village?)	他们将给外国运动员塞满美元的大纸袋作为来到奥运村的欢迎礼物吗？ ）


European leaders are arguing, with some justification, that their exporters are paying the price for America’s huge trade imbalance with Asian and oil-exporting countries.	欧洲的领导人正争辩说——其中不无道理——他们的出口商正在为美国与亚洲和石油出口国之间巨大的贸易不平衡付出代价。


If the US goes into recession, the acrimony will get a lot worse.	如果美国走向衰退，他们的批评声恐怕会更加严厉。


The IMF’s leadership tried to broker a deal over currencies at its April meeting, but without tangible results.	国际货币基金组织的领导层试图在它四月份的会议上就货币问题促成一个协议，但是没有取得明确的结果。


Given that China’s ruling Communists are holding their Party Congress at the same time as the current IMF meetings, a deal seems unlikely now, too.	考虑到中国执政的共产党在国际货币基金组织会议期间正召开它们的中央全会，这样的协议现在恐怕也很难达成。


Yet, given clear inflationary pressures in countries like Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and Russia, and notable price spikes in China, the world just might have reached a moment when agreement can be reached.	然而，鉴于像沙特阿拉伯、阿根廷和俄罗斯这样的国家正遭遇明显的通货膨胀压力，以及中国引人注目的物价上涨，也许现在正是世界可以走向达成协议的时刻。


Let’s hope so.	让我们希望情况会是这样。


There could be a real disaster if US growth woes turn today’s mild downward pressures into something much more serious.	如果美国的增长困难使今天温和的下跌压力转变成某种严重得多的危机那将是真正的灾难。


The Federal Reserve would be forced to lower interest rates further, making the dollar even less attractive, and the concomitant shift in global demand away from the US, marked by a sharp decline in the US trade balance, would put still more pressure on the dollar.	美联储将被迫继续降低利率，从而使美元愈加缺乏吸引力，随之而来全球需求从美国市场转移到其他地方，致使美国的贸易平衡暴跌，而给美元施加更大的压力。


According to my own calculations in a series of research papers with Maurice Obstfeld, the trade-weighted dollar would likely fall by 20% if a global demand shift (say, due to a US housing recession) were to cut the US trade deficit in half.	根据我自己与奥伯斯法尔对一系列研究资料进行的计算，贸易加权美元很可能会下跌20%，如果全球需求的转移（比如说，因为美国房地产市场的衰退）将把美国的贸易赤字砍掉一半的话。


In principle, such a depreciation against all of the world’s currencies is manageable.	原则上，这种对全世界所有货币的贬值是可控制的。


But if emerging markets force Europe to take all the adjustment, the results would be catastrophic, pushing up the euro to $1.50, $1.60 or beyond, with truly dire consequences for trade.	但是如果新兴市场迫使欧洲承接所有的调整，结果将是灾难性的，欧元对美元的比价将达到1. 5、1.


Indeed, the US Congress has already produced a series of ominous bills aimed at retaliating against China and other countries that engage in one-way currency intervention.	事实上，美国国会已经通过了一系列针对中国和其他一些进行单边货币干预的国家的不祥的法案。


The leading Democratic US presidential candidates have indicated their support.	一些处于领先的民主党美国总统候选人也表明了他们的支持态度。


Fortunately, the IMF recently asserted the right to take action if countries engage in sustained one-way currency intervention.	幸运的是，国际货币基金组织最近表示如果一些国家持续进行单边货币干预，那它有权采取行动。


But will incoming IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn be able to exercise this new power quickly enough to avert a crisis?	但是即将上任的国际货币基金组织执行董事多米尼克·斯特劳斯-卡恩能够足够快地行使这一新的权力来避免一场危机吗？


The IMF itself, of course, is in a deep crisis, with many questioning its mission and legitimacy.	当然国际货币基金组织本身也正陷于一场很深的危机中，许多人正在怀疑它的使命和合法性。


For better or for worse, however, current circumstances offer an opportunity.	不过，不论好坏，当前的状况正好提供了一个机会。


It would be unfortunate if the finance ministers merely sit around and beg Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet to rescue them with rate cuts.	如果各国的财政部长仅仅坐在一起央求美联储主席伯南克和欧洲央行行长特里谢削减利率来拯救他们那真是太不幸了。


It would be even worse if European ministers, frustrated with gridlock over exchange rates, started sharing ideas for creatively managing their budgets to stimulate short-term demand, rather than long-term growth.	而如果欧洲各国的财政部长面对汇率上的僵局感到沮丧，而一致产生独创性地管理他们的预算以刺激短期需求而不是长期增长，那将是更加糟糕的结果。


For the past couple of years, finance ministers and central bank heads have had the luxury of using the IMF meetings to congratulate themselves on rapid global growth, regardless of how much they actually contributed to it.	在过去的两年时间里，各国的财政部长和央行行长曾愉快地在国际货币基金组织的会议上庆祝全球经济的快速增长，而完全不去想他们自己对此真正有什么贡献。


(Globalization and China were the biggest part of the story.)	（全球化和中国是促成这种增长的主要因素。


This time needs to be different.	）这一次他们需要做点别的事了。


High Tensions In the Low Countries	欧盟小国高度的紧张状态


Belgium and the Netherlands, two founding members of the European Union, are increasingly divided about what that project now means.	欧盟两个创始国比利时和荷兰正在对欧盟计划的内涵产生越来越多的分歧。


The EU’s Reform Treaty is now the focus of that dispute, but its roots go deeper.	《欧盟改革条约》现在成了它们争议的焦点，但争议的原因却没有那么简单。


At one point, according to press reports, the row became so serious that French President Nicolas Sarkozy had to intervene.	在某个时刻，按照媒体的报导，他们的争吵变得如此激烈，以致于法国总统尼古拉·萨尔科齐都不得不出面干涉。


Europe cannot afford a dogfight between these two founding member states, so it’s high time to put emotions aside and review their differences on the future course of European integration.	欧洲禁不起这两个创始国之间无休止的争斗，因此已经到了把感情放在一边，审视这两个国家在欧洲未来融合路线上存在分歧的时候了。


As a former Dutch State Secretary for European Affairs and Benelux Coordinator, I believe that the Netherlands and Belgium can once again play complementary roles.	作为荷兰负责欧洲事务的国务卿和荷比卢经济联盟协调员，我相信荷兰和比利时可以再一次发挥互补的作用。


From the very beginning, these countries have represented the different aspects of Europe’s identity: Belgium, as an industrial country, continentally oriented, bilingual, and an intermediary with southern Europe, and the Netherlands with its strong agricultural and trading tradition and its Anglo-Saxon and Atlantic orientation.	从一开始，这两个国家就代表了欧洲属性的不同方面：比利时是个工业国、以大陆为导向、使用两种语言、在与南欧各国的关系中发挥了协调的作用，而荷兰则有着强大的农业和贸易传统，还有着坚定的盎格鲁撒克逊以及大西洋导向。


Of the two, Belgium tends to be more uncritically supportive of the EU.	在这两个国家中，比利时倾向于无条件地支持欧盟。


Polls show that more than 80% of Belgians want yet more integration, whereas roughly 50% of the Dutch describing themselves as Euroskeptics.	民意调查显示超过80%的比利时人希望进一步融合，同时约有50%的荷兰人把自己定义为欧盟怀疑者。


They value the Union for its economic benefits, but are wary of its politics.	他们看重欧盟带来的经济利益，同时却对欧盟的政治扩张充满警惕。


Belgian-Dutch cooperation has in years past been essential in helping Europe to move forward.	在过去几年中，比利时与荷兰的合作在欧洲发展中起到了至关重要的作用。


The Benelux Economic Union treaty of 1944 was an early testing ground for the Europe of the Six, and it was the joint Benelux Memorandum, fathered by the far-sighted J. W. Beyen and presented in Messina in 1955, that gave the impetus to the creation of the common market.	1944年的荷比卢经济联盟条约曾作为欧洲六国早期的试验场，而且正是由远见卓识的约翰贝恩创始、并于1955年在墨西拿提出的《荷比卢联合备忘录》，为形成共同市场创造了动力。


Indeed, it was the basis on which Belgian Foreign Minister Paul-Henri Spaak and his colleagues worked when setting the scene for the Treaty of Rome and the European Economic Community.	事实上，这也是比利时外长保罗-亨利·斯巴克及其同僚在为《罗马条约》和欧洲经济共同体创造条件时一直在努力维护的基础。


The Spaak committee devised a system that balanced the voting power of states of varying size.	斯巴克设计了一套平衡大小各异国家投票权力的体系。


Clearly, a system of one vote per member state would have meant domination by Europe’s smaller states.	很显然，每国一票的体系可能意味着欧洲较小的国家将占据主导地位。


Conversely, a system based on population would have gone too far in favoring the big ones.	而反过来，以人口为基础的系统却又太过倾向于大国力量的发挥。


Balance was achieved partly by a system of weighting of votes in the Council of Ministers, where most decisions are taken.	平衡的达成部分取决于部长理事会的投票权重系统，与欧盟有关的多数决策在这里做出。


With each enlargement of the Union, this system of decision-making has been largely maintained.	在欧盟每一次的扩容过程中，这一决策体系基本都得以维持原状。


The equilibrium in voting rights between small and large member states was also secured by vesting exclusive authority to propose regulation in the Commission, which expresses the common interests of the Community.	此外，大小成员国之间投票权利的均衡也通过授予委员会规章提案的独家权力来得以实现，因为委员会所代表的是团体的共同利益。


This authority was reinforced by requiring unanimity among member states to overrule the Commission – a provision that has strengthened the smaller states against the larger ones.	要求成员国一致同意才能否决提案也


As open economies, Belgium and the Netherlands have both been interested in developing the internal market, while differing in their methods. Belgium followed the mainly French monetarist school, while the Netherlands shared Germany’s preference for economic convergence before committing to exchange-rate parity.	巩固了委员会的权威地位——这样一条规定在大国面前为小国撑腰。


In 1991, when the Netherlands held the European presidency, Belgium supported its far-reaching draft for a treaty of European Union.	作为开放的经济体，比利时与荷兰都对开发国内市场很感兴趣，但采用的方法却各不相同。


The Dutch proposed bringing all European decision-making − economic, foreign policy, justice, and home affairs − into a single framework.	比利时信奉以法国为代表的货币主义学派，而荷兰则在致力于汇率平价之前与德国同样偏好经济集中。


The proposal turned out to be a step too far and subsequently went down in Dutch history as “black Monday,” named after the day on which the then foreign minister, Hans Van den Broek, faced near-unanimous opposition in the European Council of Ministers.	瓦勒里·季斯卡·德斯坦（Valéry Giscard d’Estaing）总统和赫尔穆特·施密特总理向经济货币联盟（EMU）递交了联合法德提案后，比利时与荷兰就齐心合力地致力于实现这一目标。


Belgium, though, was the one member state that supported the Dutch in this brave venture.	与卢森堡一道，它们成为了创建经济货币联盟的重要力量。


But the Belgians and Dutch have also been less than cooperative at times.	1991年，荷兰担任欧盟轮值主席的时候，比利时对它提出的意义深远的欧盟条约草案给予了全力的支持。


When it came to voting rights in the European Parliament and in the Council, the Dutch fought doggedly to get one extra vote in Amsterdam in 1991 and another in Nice in 2000.	荷兰人提议将欧洲所有的决策事务——经济、外交、司法和内部事务——全部纳入一个单独的框架。


This may have satisfied nationalist feelings in the Netherlands, as the country is 1.5 times the size of Belgium, but it did not go down well in Belgium.	事实证明该提案时机尚未成熟，因此在荷兰历史上书写了“黑色星期一”的惨淡篇章，那一天时任荷兰外长的范登布鲁克在欧盟部长理事会面临着几乎被全票否决的窘境，“黑色星期一”也由此得名。


The two countries also found themselves in opposing camps over the war in Iraq, and, of course, in their attitudes about further political integration.	而比利时则是在这次勇敢的创举中支持荷兰的一个成员国。


The Netherlands’ current reserved stance on further political integration is not in its broader interest.	当涉及到欧洲议会及理事会的投票权问题时，荷兰人在1991年的阿姆斯特丹和2000年的尼斯固执地要求多获得一张选票。 这样做也许满足了荷兰人的民族主义情绪，因为荷兰的国土面积是比利时的1.


But Belgium could have shown greater understanding for the Netherlands’ position after Dutch voters decisively rejected the proposed European constitution in the mid-2005 referendum.	5倍，但在比利时人中间却引起了轩然大波。 这两个国家在伊拉克战争���题上的立场也尖锐对立，在对待进一步政治融合的态度上也存在分歧。


Belgium and the Netherlands need to resuscitate their cooperative efforts within the Benelux framework. The Benelux economy is the EU’s fourth largest.	目前荷兰对进一步政治融合所持的保守立场并不符合荷兰人民的长远利益。


Belgium will be serving on the United Nations Security Council for the next two years, and has indicated that it wants to give its mandate a European dimension. The coming period could thus be used in both countries to review traditional positions and reflect on how European policy can best serve their common needs.	但在荷兰选民2005年中举行全民公决坚决否定了欧盟宪法提案以后，比利时或许可以对荷兰的立场表现出更多理解的态度。


Traditionally, the Netherlands has thought of itself as the smallest of the EU’s large member states. But others generally see it as the largest of the small.	比利时与荷兰需要在荷比卢经济联盟的框架内重新唤起合作的力量。


Accepting this view could have a healthy impact on its behavior in the EU.	荷比卢经济圈是欧盟第四大经济实体。


After all, the three largest EU states – Germany, Britain, and France – can be expected to seek agreements among themselves about the Union’s future shape, so the Benelux countries’ common goal should be to influence their actions and ensure that their thinking is acceptable to the whole community.	今后两年比利时将进入联合国安全理事会，并且已经公开表态希望利用这一任期为欧洲谋求利益。 因此两国可以利用这未来的两年来审视自身的传统立场，并且认真思考欧洲政策能如何满足它们共同的需求。


Three Encounters with Hillary	与希拉里的三次会面


PARIS – It is Boston, July 2004.	巴黎——2004年7月，波士顿。


The setting is a downtown restaurant to which the editor Tina Brown has invited Hillary Clinton and a handful of notables, including Caroline Kennedy, filmmaker Michael Moore, and former Senator George McGovern.	市中心的一家餐馆，编辑蒂娜·布朗邀请了希拉里·克林顿和其他几位知名人士，包括卡罗琳·肯尼迪、导演迈克尔·摩尔和前任参议员乔治·麦戈文。


What is immediately striking is Clinton’s youthful appearance, bright laugh, and blue eyes that appear a little too round when she gazes at us with curiosity.	令人难忘的是希拉里年轻靓丽的外表、明媚的微笑和好奇地凝视着我们的大大的蓝眼睛。


Sometimes her expression is briefly clouded by a streak of stifled pain, obstinate and not wholly contained.	她脸上有时会控制不住地掠过一丝倔强而痛苦的表情。


Five years earlier, she was the most humiliated wife in America, a woman whose private life was thrown open – fully and relentlessly – to public scrutiny.	五年前，她曾是全美最受屈辱的女人，私生活无情而彻底地接受公众的品评。


So she can talk national and international politics until she is blue in the face.	她可以谈论国内国际政治直至脸色发青。


She can sing the praises of John Kerry, whom her party has just nominated in an effort to deny George W. Bush a second term.	她可以赞扬约翰·克里，后者刚刚接受了她所在政党赋予的阻止乔治·W·布什连任的重任。


And she can expound on her role as the junior senator from New York.	她还可以讲述作为纽约新任参议员所发挥的作用。


Still, there persists an idea that I cannot push out of my head, and that I enter into the travel journal that I am writing for The Atlantic.	但仍有一种想法在我的脑海中挥之不去，我把它写进了为《大西洋》月刊撰写的旅行日记当中。