Furthermore, because wasps are not found everywhere, an orchid crop could never be pollinated outside its original range.	此外，胡蜂并非到处都有，因此兰花作物不可能在原始产地之外的地区获得授粉。


Most food crops, by contrast, can be pollinated by different types of insects.	相反，大部分粮食作物可以由不同昆虫授粉。


They can be successfully cultivated around the world, using whatever insects are available to pollinate them.	它们可以在世界各地成功培育，利用各种现有昆虫授粉。


The most common crops of all – wheat, maize, and rice – are grasses that rely on the wind for pollination.	最常见的农作物——小麦、玉米和大米是风媒授粉禾本科植物。


Others, such as potatoes and yams, are spread vegetatively and are rarely propagated from seed at all, while some crops that would naturally be insect pollinated, such as oilseed rape, become wind pollinated when they are grown on an industrial scale.	其他农作物，如马铃薯和洋芋，通过营养生殖，几乎不需要从种子开始种植，而一些天然虫媒授粉农作物，如油菜，在工业规模种植时代已经变成了风媒授粉。


A more adventurous plant diet is possible.	我们也许可以找到更丰盛的植物大餐。


But it would have to accommodate the quirky sex lives of what we include in it.	但首先需要调整我们希望在大餐中看到的植物的诡异性生活。


Food for Revolution	美元—粮价—惜售连锁反应威胁社会稳定


PRINCETON – Summits are defined by their location.	普林斯顿——某个峰会的特色常与其召开地点暗合。


It is quaint that the 1933 World Economic Conference took place in the Geological Museum in London’s Kensington, at a time when international cooperation seemed as alien as a fossilized dinosaur.	1933年世界经济会议（World Economic Conference）的举办地是位于伦敦肯辛顿区的地质博物馆，这个透着远古气息的地点暴露了那场会议有多么不合时宜：当时，国际经济合作就像恐龙化石一样古怪。


On these criteria, Deauville, in French Normandy, with the (slightly faded) elegance of a past era of elite luxury, ostentatious consumption, and sumptuous banquets, is also perhaps not an altogether fortunate choice for the G-8 meeting.	按这个标准来看，法国诺曼底地区的多维尔小城，虽残存着昔日名流雅集、奢华饮宴之余韵，却略显几分没落，恐怕也不是G8峰会的福地。


This year, the G-8ers are talking about interesting but peripheral issues, such as the economic impact of the Internet.	今年，G8首脑们讨论的一些问题很有趣，但也很边缘，比如互联网的经济影响。


Worse, they are talking about important issues, like food security, in a peripheral way.	更糟的是，他们讨论了一些重要问题，比如粮食保障，但讨论的方式却很边缘。


The food issue emerged for the first time as a major theme at the July 2009 summit in L’Aquila, Italy, as a response to a commodity boom that was beginning to falter, but that has since reemerged with the force of a hurricane.	粮食问题第一次成为主要议题是在2009年7月的意大利拉奎拉峰会，当时是为了应对已现破灭之兆的大宗商品泡沫，但这个泡沫后来又以雷霆万钧之势卷土重来。


Now the G-8 will discuss funding for palliative measures.	此次G8峰会，要讨论缓和之策。


The issue of food is, however, intimately tied to a host of much broader economic issues, which the international community is not properly addressing.	然而，同粮食问题紧密相连的一大堆更宽泛的经济问题，恰恰没有得到国际社会的正确处理。


Even though the global economy today looks relatively robust in general, international economic cooperation is more fragile now than at any moment in the post-1945 world.	尽管全球经济如今看似普遍复苏，国际经济合作却比1945年以来的任何时期都要脆弱。


Weak food security highlights all of the major problems of the modern world non-order.	疲软的粮食保障反映了当今世界的无序状态所带来的一切问题。


Economic and financial nationalisms threaten.	经济与金融民族主义甚嚣尘上。


There is talk of currency wars, national management and regulation of banking, and growing demand for greater levels of trade protection.	人们谈论着货币战争、各国对银行业各自为政的管理和监管和提升贸易保护水平的种种主张。


And all of these issues are inter-connected.	而这一切问题又都是互相关联的。


The discussion of monetary policy is especially divisive.	关于货币政策的讨论最具火药味儿。


Because of low interest rates in the United States, major financial institutions can borrow cheaply in dollars and then chase much higher returns in the major emerging-market countries.	由于美国维持低利率，各大金融机构可以廉价地借入美元，再到主要新兴市场国家去追逐高额回报。


The result creates an impossible dilemma for many of the world’s most dynamic economies.	结果，世界上最有活力的若干经济体陷入两难。


If they try to clamp down by raising domestic interest rates, they will only attract greater capital inflows.	如果它们为了紧缩经济而加息，只会吸引更多的资本流入。


If they let the exchange rate rise, they might deter some capital inflows, but they would also penalize their exporters and push up domestic unemployment.	如果它们让本币升值，虽然可以部分缓解资本流入，但也会打击出口行业，推高失业率。


Emerging-market policymakers in big countries such as Brazil, China, and Turkey routinely attack the US and its monetary policy as a source of inflation, social tension, and political instability.	新兴市场大国如巴西、中国、土耳其的政策制定者，反复批评美国及其货币政策是通胀、社会紧张和政治不稳定的源头。


The most obvious and dangerous consequence of low interest rates in the major industrial countries is their impact on commodity prices, which is especially pronounced for food and fuel.	各大工业国低利率的种种后果中，最显著、最危险的就是对大宗商品价格的影响，尤其是粮食和能源。


As many economists, notably Jeffrey Frankel, have shown, prices on these markets are established by an auction-like process; as a result, commodity markets transmit the effects of monetary expansion particularly quickly.	正如许多经济学家，特别是弗兰克尔（Jeffrey Frankel）所证明的，在这些市场上决定价格的是一种类似拍卖的机制，所以，货币扩张的效应会特别快地在大宗商品市场上体现出来。


By contrast, branded products, into which producers have sunk major investments in securing the market, have prices that are much stickier and do not reflect the effects of monetary policy as rapidly.	相反，就具有品牌的产品而言，由于生产商投入了大量成本以巩固市场，这个市场的价格就不会那么快地反映货币政策的效果。


Higher food prices have had a major impact in expanding the area devoted to cultivation in many countries, and have led to higher output levels worldwide.	粮价高企的一大后果是，许多国家会增加耕地面积，导致全球粮食增产。


Brazil, Russia, and China, but also Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa – indeed, all African countries that have maintained functioning governments – have seen dramatic increases in food production over the past decade.	不仅是巴西、俄罗斯和中国，还有阿尔及利亚、埃及和南非——其实是每一个还具备有效政府的非洲国家——在最近十年中都大大增加了粮食产量。


This should be a happy picture: the world is now better able to feed itself.	这本该是件好事儿：世界更有能力养活自己了。


But the same economic stimuli that underpin higher food output also lead to supply problems, a decline in living standards, and massive social strains, especially in urban centers.	但鼓励粮食增产的经济激励——高粮价——同时也导致了供应问题、生活水平下降和大众社会矛盾，尤其是在城市群地区。


This is important to bear in mind, because rising food prices have historically been the trigger for political revolutions.	前事不忘，后事之师，历史上，粮价上涨是很多政治革命的导火索。


The three revolutions that made the modern world, in France, Russia, and China, all had their immediate origins in food shortages, fear of hunger, and disputes about food pricing.	塑造了现代世界的三场革命——法国、俄国和中国革命，其直接原因都和粮食短缺、饥饿恐慌和粮价争端有关。


The panic about bread that swept France in 1789, and the inability of the government to guarantee supplies, destroyed the ancien regime.	1789年，没有面包吃的恐慌席卷法国，政府没有能力确保供应，导致了“旧制度”的垮台。


Louis XVI was contemptuously called “le boulanger,” the baker.	人们怨恨地把路易十六称作失职的“面包师傅”。


Wartime inflation destroyed stability in the Russian empire in 1917, as farmers, worried about the declining value of their money, hoarded their output and let the cities starve.	1917年，战时通胀瓦解了沙俄帝国的稳定，农民害怕货币贬值，于是囤积惜售，令城市陷入饥馑。


The Bolsheviks came to power on a promise of bread (and peace).	布尔什维克靠着“面���会有的”（还有和平）的诺言获得了权力。


China, too, was paralyzed by inflation after the Second World War, leaving it vulnerable to food panics.	中国也一样，二战后的通胀引起了粮食恐慌。


Food prices are usually not limited in their effects to one country alone.	粮价的影响往往不限于一国。


Simultaneous revolutions swept Europe in 1848, in the aftermath of crop failures whose most notorious manifestation was the Irish famine.	1848年，欧洲各地同时爆发革命，导火索就是当年的普遍歉收，最突出的代表是爱尔兰大饥荒。


Price rises have been a major trigger of the discontent this year in the Middle East and North Africa.	而今年中东和北非的大众抗议也是由粮价上涨引发的。


Though the Egyptian and Tunisian economies were expanding quite satisfactorily, people had to pay much more for food.	尽管埃及和突尼斯的经济颇有增长，民众却不得不付更多的钱买面包。


Moreover, it would be wrong to view this as a purely regional phenomenon limited to the so-called Arab Spring.	此外，不应认为这纯属地区现象，所谓阿拉伯之春。


The same kind of unrest, in which the countryside is pitted against the town, with both sides demanding more rights, could undermine the political order in China and other big emerging-market economies.	类似的不安促使农村反对城市，一旦两边都提出更多的主张，就有可能动摇中国和其他一些新兴市场经济体的政治秩序。


Recent decades have been replete with contagious financial crises that spread disorder from one country to another.	近几十年，传染性的金融危机频发，无序状态从一个国家蔓延到另一个国家的例子屡见不鲜。


The effects of globalized money are now producing a new whirlwind.	主要全球性货币的表现正在酝酿一场新的风暴。


The coming years or even months are likely to see new forms of these domino effects.	未来几年，甚至几个月，有可能爆发新的多米诺骨牌效应。


As in 1848, the struggle for affordable food is producing discontent that transcends national frontiers, threatens established regimes, and fuels popular demand for a more just political order.	正如1848年，为了获取食物的斗争正在制造超越国界的不满情绪，威胁着现有政权，并且促使大众起来要求一个更加正义的政治体制。


Food for Thought in North Korea	引人深思的朝鲜时局


DENVER – Meet any Korean of a certain age, and you will learn about barley season, which begins in February and stretches through the cold months of early spring until the first of the winter barley crop is harvested.	发自丹佛——如果碰到那些上了年纪的朝鲜半岛居民，你就有机会了解到一些关于“麦荒”的故事。 这场饥荒一般从每年二月开始，一直延续到早春最冷的那几个月份，直到秋（播）大麦收获时才告终结。


Few South Koreans remember those straitened months anymore, but for North Koreans, hunger in the countryside during this time of year is very real.	如今只有极少数韩国人还记得那段艰难的时光，但对朝鲜人来说，农村地区在这一时节的饥饿感却是实实在在的。


In past years, South Korea has been the primary external source of food, through either direct food assistance (for the immediate problem) or deliveries of fertilizer.	在过去十几年间，韩国一直是朝鲜最主要的外部食品供应者，要么直接援助粮食（针对某些紧急情况），要么输送化肥。


But this year, with rising impatience and anger in South Korea toward the North Korean regime, the food and fertilizer is in doubt.	但今年随着韩国国内对朝鲜政权的烦躁和愤怒不断加深，这些食品和化肥的供应都成了未知之数。


And some analysts in Seoul believe that a dicey political succession in Pyongyang, combined with food shortages in the countryside, could prove too much for the North Korean regime to handle.	对此有分析家认为：倘若平壤内部的政治权力交接危机与农村地区的食品短缺双管齐下，朝鲜政权就将最终被压垮。


The past 12 months have seen some of the most outrageous North Korean behavior in decades.	刚刚过去的12个月内我们已经见证了朝鲜近几十年来最恬不知耻的一系列举动。


In March 2010, a North Korean submarine torpedoed a South Korean ship on the high seas, killing 46 sailors – and sinking any prospect of an early resumption of negotiations to implement the North Korea’s 2005 commitment to eliminate all its nuclear programs.	2010年三月，一艘朝鲜潜艇在公海海域击沉了一艘韩国军舰，造成46名韩国水兵阵亡——同时沉入大海的还有尽早重开谈判以使朝鲜履行其2005年销毁全部核项目承诺的愿望。


North Korean invective and provocation against the South continued, and in November its military shelled a South Korean-held island along the northern limit line, which has served as the North-South border since the 1953 armistice.	随后朝鲜继续对韩国大肆挑衅，在去年11月朝军炮击了“北方界线”南侧韩国占领的一个岛屿——而这条界线在1953年停战后就一直作为南北边界而存在。


More recently, the regime proudly unveiled a modern, high-tech uranium-enrichment facility.	最近一段时间，朝鲜又嚣张地展示了一套现代化的高技术铀浓缩设施。


According to the American scientist who was invited to see it, the facility, in contrast to the regime’s aging plutonium technology, appeared to be state-of-the-art, thus reinforcing the suspicion that North Korea has no genuine interest whatsoever in fulfilling its nuclear-disarmament responsibilities.	据受邀参观该设施的美国科学家所言，这套设施与该国原本落后的钚技术相比简直是一个飞跃，并在某种程度上印证了外界的疑虑：朝鲜根本毫无诚意去履行解除自身核武装的责任。


When asked why they failed to include this facility in their declaration of nuclear programs, North Korean officials responded cheerfully – and absurdly – that it had been built from scratch only after the collapse of the nuclear negotiations in 2008.	当被问到该设施为何未被列入核项目申报清单之时，朝方官员给予了非常愉快——也极端荒谬——的回应：这一切都是2008年核谈判破裂之后才从零建起的。


The North Koreans lied in writing not only to the United States, which it has done repeatedly in the past, but also to China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea.	朝鲜一直以来都在各种文件上编造谎言，不但愚弄了美国，中国、俄罗斯，日本和韩国也深受其害。


The Chinese have urged the US and others to restart the nuclear talks, but they know that it is North Korean perfidy that has jeopardized the process.	中国敦促美国和其他各方重开核会谈，但他们其实也明白真正破坏这一进程的是朝鲜的背信弃义。


Meanwhile, in the stark North Korean countryside, the regime has invested almost nothing.	与此同时，朝鲜政权却不舍得在一片荒芜的农村地区投入一分钱。


Unmanaged rivers regularly overflow their banks and inundate villages during typhoon season, much as they did a thousand years ago.	缺乏治理的河流经常在台风季节漫过河岸并淹没村庄，这一景象数千年来都毫无改善。


Irrigation systems remain crude and inadequate to confronting the vicissitudes of rainfall on the often parched and barren Korean peninsula.	灌溉系统极为简陋，根本不足以应对炎热贫瘠的朝鲜半岛上的降雨变化。


This neglect has left North Koreans perpetually on the edge of survival – and often with their palms extended to the international community, especially the South.	而这种忽视行为已经将朝鲜人推到了死亡的边缘——并转而向国际社会伸手讨要食品，尤其是向韩国。


For South Koreans, whether to care for hungry North Koreans, who are kith and kin, will be a much tougher decision than for others who see only a distant security problem.	与那些仅仅将此视为一个遥远安全问题的人不同，是否应该援助这些朝鲜同胞对于韩国人来说是一个艰难的决定。


Many North Koreans are already malnourished, their body weight and height substantially lower than that of South Koreans.	许多朝鲜人早已陷入营养不良，他们的体重和身高都持续低于韩国人均水平。


According to non-government groups and other humanitarian workers, many North Korean children are showing signs of mental impairment as the lack of essential vitamins takes its toll.	按照非政府组织以及其他人道主义工作者的反映，由于缺乏必要的维生素，许多朝鲜儿童的智力已经遭到了损害。


South Koreans increasingly are coming to believe that North Korea will not be in the family of nations for long – that sooner or later (perhaps even in this decade), the North will collapse and its malnourished people will become future citizens of a reunified Republic of Korea.	越来越多的韩国人开始认为朝鲜这个国家即将崩溃——或迟或早（或者就在这十年内），朝鲜将灭亡而那些营养不良的人们将成为一个统一大韩民国的公民。


For this reason, the issues facing South Korean public opinion as it decides whether to help with food assistance are not easy; indeed, they could be quite wrenching.	因此韩国民意对于是否进行食品援助犹豫不决； 事实上这个决定也是相当痛苦的。


The division of the Korean Peninsula 65 years ago was one of the greatest – and now most enduring – tragedies of the Second World War.	65年前朝鲜半岛的分裂是二战所导致的其中一个最严重——也是最持久——的恶果。


No one dreamed that a line drawn on the 38th parallel for the tactical purpose of organizing the surrender of Japanese units to Soviet and American forces would become a scar across the Korean peninsula that would create two separate states.	没人会料到这条北纬38度线（原本用于划分驻朝日军应该向美国和苏联哪一方投降）会成为一条横贯朝鲜半岛的伤痕，并催生出两个独立国家。


But it did, and, in the wake of the Korean War, that line would become – and remain – one of the most heavily fortified borders on earth.	但事情确实发生了，在朝鲜战争停战以��，这条线成为了地球上最为戒备森严的边界之一，并一直延续至今。


The Korean people have a historical right to determine their peninsula’s future arrangements, including unification should they so choose.	朝鲜半岛上的人民拥有决定半岛未来安排的历史权利，包括选择统一。


How this increasingly likely process unfolds will have enormous political and security consequences for the region.	而这一可能性逐渐凸显的的进程将如何展开必定会为该区域内带来重大的政治和安全后果。


Will China accept a unified peninsula under a US ally?	中国会接受一个与美国同盟的统一朝鲜半岛吗？


Will the US take measures to reassure China?	美国是否会想方设法让中国放心？


How would a unified Korea affect attitudes in Japan?	这个统一的国家对日本又是何种态度？


But the real decisions – and their consequences – will fall on the government in Seoul.	但真正的决定——及其后果——将由首尔当局决定。


Would food aid help to ensure the survival of a state whose treatment of its own citizens is among the most abysmal in the world?	面对着一个用世界上最为残忍的手段虐待本国公民的国家，食品援助是否是在助纣为虐？


If so, and if denying food aid would result in a famine that the North Korean regime could not withstand, what could such a decision mean for eventual relations among Korean peoples living in the northern and southern parts of a unified country?	如果答案是肯定的话，倘若停止援助将引发一场朝鲜政权无法应对的大饥荒，将来朝鲜半岛统一之后，当年的这一决策将对南北人民之间的关系造成何种影响？


In the coming weeks, South Korea’s government will confront one of the toughest choices that any government can face: whether the short-term cost in human lives is worth the potential long-term benefits (also in terms of human lives) that a famine-induced collapse of North Korea could bring.	在未来的几周内，韩国政府将面对一个最为艰难的抉择：用短期内的朝鲜人民生命损失，最终引发朝鲜的崩溃并取得潜在的长期好处（同时也能挽救人命），这场交换是否值得呢？


Food for Thought on GM Crops	转基因作物之辩


COPENHAGEN – As the world continues to debate the impact of climate-change while seeking a new global treaty to prevent it, Kenya has endured a prolonged drought followed by heavy flooding. Maize plants have withered, hitting poor rural families hard.	哥本哈根——


There is hope: next year, the Kenyan authorities will begin testing maize varieties that they hope will provide high yields and prove more resistant to drought.	为了防止气候恶化效应，世界各国正忙于寻找新的全球气候协定之时，干旱和洪水正在肯尼亚交互肆虐。


But why did farmers in Kenya and other African countries not have access to drought-resistant crop varieties before catastrophe struck?	由于玉米歉收，农村贫困家庭尤受其害。 人民正在挨饿，即使侥幸得以存活，也大多营养不良。


One reason is that such crops rely on research tools used in molecular biology, including genetic engineering.	希望还是有的：明年肯尼亚当局将开始试种高产耐旱的新种玉米。


African governments have been told that genetic engineering is dangerous, with many Europeans and their national governments – as well as transnational NGOs such as Greenpeace – determined to stay away from it.	然而，为何直到灾难降临，肯尼亚和其他非洲国家的农民方才获得种植耐旱作物的权利？


Unfortunately, Kenya’s government listened and did not permit their farmers to grow genetically modified (GM) maize, even though it has been approved, sown, harvested, and eaten by both humans and animals in South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and other countries for many years.	原因之一是这些作物需要依赖包括基因工程在内的分子生物学研究。


Although Kenya has a well-functioning and well-funded agricultural research system, the government has not even permitted field tests of GM crop varieties.	非洲政府被告知，基因工程是有危险的，欧洲各国政府及非政府组织（如绿色和平组织）大多对此避而远之。


Molecular biology has provided excellent tools to address health, environmental, and food problems such as those seen in Kenya. The question is whether decision-makers are prepared to use them.	不幸的是，肯尼亚政府听从了告诫，不许其农民种植转基因玉米，尽管转基因玉米早已在南非、阿根廷、巴西、美国及其他国家被批准、种植、收割并用于制造饲料及食品。


But why are developing-country governments dragging their feet? Are the risks so high that they justify the suffering that could have been avoided?	尽管肯尼亚农业研究体系运转良好、资金充足，但政府甚至连试种都不批准。


GM foods have now been on the market in the US for more than 12 years. Most of the food consumed by Americans is either genetically modified or exposed to genetic modification somewhere in the production process.	分子生物学是解决卫生、环境和食品问题（就像人们在肯尼亚所看到的）的良方，问题在于决策者是否做好了使用准备。


There is no evidence of even a single case of illness or death as a result – in the US or anywhere else where GM foods are consumed.	显然，大多数欧盟国家政府没有。 但为何发展中国家政府也逡巡不前呢？


Similarly, GM feed has not resulted in any illness or death in animals. And no environmental damage has been detected.	难道是风险太大，甚至要超过解决问题所带来的好处？


It is unusual that a new technology has no negative side effects.	转基因食品在美国市场已经存在12年之久。 在美国人所消费的食品中，绝大多数都属于转基因食品或者在制造过程中采用过转基因技术。


Just think of all the deaths that the wheel has caused, not to mention the side effects of much of the medicine we take.	至今尚未发生哪怕一例因此致病致死的案例——美国或是其他任何消费转基因食品的地方都是如此。 同样，使用转基因饲料喂养的动物也从未发生过致病和致死的情形。


What, then, is the danger of GM foods?	至于环境破坏，到目前为止也尚未检测到。


Opponents of genetic engineering in food and agriculture have several arguments, none of which appears to be valid.	没有负面影响的新技术是很少见的。


First, “genetic engineering cannot solve the hunger and food insecurity problem.”	想一想汽车的发明就造成了多少轮下冤魂，更不用说各种药物的副作用了。


This is correct: GM foods cannot singlehandedly solve the problem, but they can be an important part of the solution.	那么，转基因食品的危害在哪儿呢？


A second argument is that “we do not know enough about the effects and side effects.”	食品和农业基因工程的反对者提出了不少见解，但没有一个是站得住脚的。


Since some of the groups opposing GM organisms destroy the field trials that could give us more knowledge, a more pertinent argument might be that many opponents do not want us to know more.	论点之一，“基因工程无法解决饥饿和食品安全问题。 ”事实是：“这不是单靠转基因食品就能解决得了的，但转基因食品是解决方案的重要组成部分。


Third, “we should not play God.”	论点之二：“我们队转基因的作用和副作用了解得还不够。


But if God gave us brains, it was so that we should use them to ensure a balance between people and nature to help eliminate hunger and protect the environment.	”但反转基因组织屡屡破坏转基因作物试种工作，阻止我们获得更多知识。 由此看来，说许多反对者不希望我们进行深入了解才对。


Fourth, pollen from GM crops may “contaminate” organically produced food.	论点之三：“我们不能糊弄上帝。


This, of course, would be an issue only with open pollinating plants, and only if the definition of “organically produced” excludes GM, something that is difficult to justify, since genes are as organic as anything.	”但既然上帝赋予了我们脑子，那么我们何不将其用于保证人类与自然和谐相处，从而消除饥饿、保护环境呢？ 。


Lastly, some argue that if farmers are permitted to sow GM varieties, they become dependent on large seed producers such as Monsanto, which have patent protection – and thus a monopoly – on the seed.	论点之四：转基因作物的花粉会“污染”有机生长作物。


But private corporations undertake only about half of all agricultural research, whether or not it involves genetic engineering. The other half is done by public research systems using public funds.	这个问题只有在开放授粉作物身上才会发生。


Results from such research would not be subject to private-sector monopoly power. The fact that virtually all US maize and soybean farmers, and all papaya farmers, use GM seed indicates that it is good business for them.	此外，将转基因排除在“有机生长”的定义之外也难以令人信服，毕竟基因本身也是有机的。


Similarly, a large share of farmers – most of them smallholders – in Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, China, India, and other countries, prefer GM seed because they make more money from the resulting crops.	最后，还有人说一旦允许种植转基因作物，农民便会便会沦为孟山都等大型种子商的附庸，而这些制造商大多拥有种子专利保护权，因此构成了垄断。 但是，即使将基因工程计算在内，私人公司也只占据农业研究的半壁江山。


Large reductions in the use of insecticides cut costs for growers of GM varieties, while providing an important health and ecological benefit.	另一半掌握在公共资金支持的公共研究体系中，其研究成果不会受到私人部门垄断力量的制约。 事实上，几乎所有美国种植玉米、大豆和木瓜的农民都使用转基因种子，并从中获益良多。


But maybe those who oppose private seed corporations are really against capitalism and the market economy rather than GM seed.	与美国类似，相当一部分阿根廷、巴西、南非、中国、印度及其他国家的农民——大多只拥有为数很少的农田——也喜欢使用转基因种子，因为这样更划算。


If so, they should choose an issue for their campaign that would be less damaging to the poor and hungry in developing countries.	转基因作物可以大量降低杀虫剂的使用量，不但节约了成本，对健康和生态也大有裨益。


The global food crisis of 2007-2008 was a warning of what the future may hold in store if we continue with business as usual, including misplaced opposition to the use of modern science in food and agriculture.	但是，那些反对私人种子公司的人或许实际上是在反对资本主义和市场经济，而不是反对转基因种子。


European and developing-country governments urgently need to reverse their current adverse position on GM organisms in order to help ensure sustainable food security for all.	果真如此的话，他们还不如换个目标，免得伤害贫穷饥饿的发展中国家。


Such a reversal would reduce hunger, poverty, and malnutrition; help protect our planet’s natural resources; and slow the emission of greenhouse gases from agriculture.	2007~2008年的全球粮食危机为我们敲响了警钟，如果我们继续抱残守缺，顽固地反对现代科学在食品和农业方面的应用，必将付出沉重的代价。


All that is needed is political will.	欧洲和发展中国家政府迫切需要转变对转基因作物的偏见，惟其如此，方能保证所有人可持续的食品安全。


Food or Fuel?	食品还是石油？


When United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon recently visited Antarctica, he was impressed by the melting ice he saw there.	当联合国秘书长潘基文最近访问南极洲时，他被他在那儿看到的不断融化的冰层震撼了。


Then he was in Brazil, where he was impressed by the country’s use of bio-fuel to power a quarter of its automotive traffic.	然后他来到了巴西，在那里他对这个国家四分之一的汽车交通使用的都是生物燃料留下了深刻的印象。


Oil pressed from rapeseed can be used as diesel fuel, and maize or sugar beets can yield ethanol to replace gasoline.	从油菜籽里榨出来的油可以被用作柴油，而从玉米或甜菜中可以出产乙醇以替代汽油。


The UN and many countries officially share the view that bio-fuel is one option in fighting climate change.	联合国和许多国家的官方观点都认为生物燃料是对抗气候变化的一个选择。


The United States generously subsidizes production of ethanol from maize, with output there currently growing 12% annually and almost 10% worldwide.	美国给从玉米中生产乙醇提供巨额的补贴，这使该国的产量现在每年以12%的速度增长，而全世界的年增长幅度大约为10%。


EU countries subsidized bio-fuels production with €3.7 billion in 2006, and intend to cover 8% of their motor fuels from biological sources by 2015 and 20% by 2020.	欧盟国家2006年给生物燃料的生产补贴了37亿欧元，并且计划到2015年它们机动车燃料的8%将由生物资源提供，2020年达到20%。


The Kyoto Protocol allows countries to meet their target reductions of CO2 emissions by substituting bio-fuels for fossil fuels.	《京都议定书》允许各国通过用生物燃料替代矿物燃料来达到它们二氧化碳减排的目标。


But is it really a wise and ethically acceptable strategy to burn food rather than eat it?	但是将食品烧掉而不是吃掉真的是一个明智并且道义上可接受的策略吗？


If we allow food to be used to produce bio-fuels, food prices will be linked to the oil price, as the head of the German farmers association happily announced.	如果我们允许将食品用于生产生物燃料，那么食品的价格就会与石油价格挂钩，正如德国农民协会的主席高兴地宣布的那样。


Indeed, food prices are currently increasing in Europe, because more and more farmland is being used for bio-fuels instead of for food production.	事实上，目前欧洲的食品价格正在节节攀升，因为越来越多的耕地被用来生产生物燃料而不是生产食品。


This is not sustainable.	这样的行为是不可持续的。


The so-called tortilla crisis, which led to protests in Mexico City in January, foreshadows what we can expect.	一月份导致墨西哥城爆发抗议活动的所谓玉米粉圆饼危机，正预示了将来会发生的事情。


The price of maize, half of which is imported from the US, more than doubled in a year, primarily because of production of bio-ethanol.	玉米的一半是从美国进口的，其价格一年内涨了一倍多，主要是源于生物乙醇的生产。


Mexico tried to solve the problem by imposing a state-administered price ceiling for maize tortillas, combined with duty-free maize imports.	墨西哥试图通过给玉米粉圆饼设定一个由政府控制的最高价格以及免除玉米进口的关税来解决这一问题。


The problem is that advocates of reducing the greenhouse effect by promoting bio-fuels production have not made clear where the land will come from.	问题在于提倡通过推广生物燃料的生产来降低温室效应的人没有明确土地应该从哪里来。


In principle, there are only three ways to procure it: by withdrawing it from food or fodder production, from the production of natural materials – particularly wood – or from nature.	原则上，土地的来源只有三个途径：从生产食品或饲料、生产天然材料，尤其是木材的土地或是从自然中获取。


The perversity of the first alternative is obvious: there is no surplus food production in the world.	第一种替代土地来源的倒错很明显：世界上的食品生产并没有过剩。


Whoever wishes to grow bio-fuels on land that was previously used for food production must recognize that this would increase food prices, harming the poorest of the poor.	任何想将原来生产食品的土地用于生产生物燃料的人都必须认识到这样做会提升食品价格，从而伤害最最贫困的那些人。


Similarly, to cultivate bio-fuels on land that would otherwise be used to produce sustainable construction materials would drive up the prices of these materials and encourage their substitution by non-sustainable materials like concrete and steel.	同样地，将本来应该出产可持续的建筑材料的土地用于生产生物燃料会推高这些建筑材料的价格，并且使人们转而使用像水泥和钢材这些不可持续的材料。


This may be unobjectionable on ethical and social-policy grounds, but it certainly would not help the environment.	这在伦理和社会政策上讲也许并无异议，但是这对环境肯定没有什么帮助。


Wood stores carbon, owing to photosynthesis.	因为光合作用，木材可以储存碳。


The larger the stocks of wood on earth, in the form of living trees or wooden construction material in buildings, the less CO2 there is in the atmosphere and the cooler the earth remains.	地球上木材的储量越大，不管它们是以活的树还是建筑物中的木质建材出现，空气中二氧化碳的含量都会更少，而地球也会变得更凉爽。


So, taking land for the production of bio-fuels from forests means speeding up global warming, because bio-fuel crops store much less carbon than trees.	所以，从森林中掘取土地用于生产生物燃料意味着加速全球变暖，因为生物燃料作物比树储存的碳要少得多。


To be sure, in addition to the negative storage effect, there might be a positive effect on the world climate insofar as bio-fuels may replace fossil fuels for combustion processes.	应该看到，除开负面的储存效应外，它对全球气候也可能会有积极效应，因为生物燃料可以替代矿物燃料用于燃烧过程。


But this assumes that the oil sheikhs will extract less oil because there is more bio-fuel.	但是这是在预想石油国家因为更多生物燃料的出现而减产石油的情况下才会出现。


If they don’t, the positive effect will vanish.	如果它们没有减产，那么这种积极效应就不会出现。


World market prices of fossil fuels will simply be lower than they otherwise would be such that total consumption of fossil and bio-fuels rises by the extra production of bio-fuel.	矿物燃料的世界市场价格只有在由于生物燃料额外增加的产量而导致矿物燃料和生物燃料的总消耗上升的情况下才会低于它们本来会有的价格。


The remaining alternative is to use land that has not previously been used commercially.	剩下的一个替代方案是使用那些此前未进行商业利用的土地。


But such land is usually wooded.	但是这种土地通常都是森林。


The substitution of forests by maize, rape, and other oilseed cultivation reduces the stock of biomass and likewise leads to an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.	将森林替代为种植玉米、油菜和其他含油作物会减少生物量并且很可能导致大气中二氧化碳的浓度。


Brazil has cleared huge areas of its jungle in order to produce the bio-ethanol that impressed the Secretary General.	巴西已经砍伐了大片的丛林以便生产令联合国秘书长留下深刻印象的生物乙醇。


By doing so, the country has done a great disservice to the cause of fighting climate change.	这个国家的这种做法是对抗击气候变化事业的巨大损害。


Indeed, every year, the world loses forest area the size of Ireland.	事实上，每年全球都会丢失相当于爱尔兰国土面积的森林。


The effect on the atmosphere is equivalent to 18% of annual CO2 emissions, more than from the world’s entire transport sector.	这对大气的影响相当于每年18%的二氧化碳排放量，这比全世界��有交通设备的总排放量还要高。


Deforestation must be reversed, not accelerated.	砍伐森林的行为必须得到遏制，而不是加快。


It makes no sense to use land in whatever form to produce bio fuels.	把任何形式的土地用于生产生物燃料都是毫无道理的。


Only producing bio-fuels without the use of additional land is justifiable in terms of environmental and social policy.	只有不使用额外的土地来生产生物燃料才是对环境和社会政策有益的。


This would mean using agricultural and other waste, which would otherwise rot and produce nearly equal amounts of CO2 and methane, an even more dangerous greenhouse gas.	也就是说应该使用农业有机废弃物和其他废弃物，这些废弃物本来会腐烂并且排放出几乎同等量的二氧化碳和一种危害更大的温室气体甲烷。


That option should be supported.	这种选择方案才应该得到支持。


But official encouragement of production of bio-fuels on land that would have been used for other purposes must stop.	而政府支持将本该用于其他用途的土地用于生产生物燃料的行为必须得到制止。


Feeding a Flawed Society	养活有缺陷的社会


STANFORD/BERKELEY – Virtually everyone in the scientific community agrees that ensuring sufficient food supplies for a surging human population, which is set to grow by 2.4 billion by mid-century, will require serious work.	斯坦福/伯克利—几乎所有的科学界人士都同意，确保数量日益增加的人类的充足粮食供应需要很大的努力。 到本世纪中叶，全球人口预计将增加25亿。


Indeed, we have not even succeeded at providing enough food for today’s population of 7.3 billion: Nearly 800 million people currently are starving or hungry, and another couple billion do not get enough micronutrients.	事实上，我们连为当今73亿人口提供足够的粮食都没有做到：近8亿人正在挨饿或吃不饱，另有好几亿人得不到充分的微量元素。


But there is no such consensus about how to address the food-security problem.	但在如何解决粮食安全的问题上并不存在这样的共识。


The scientific community is split between two main approaches: “tinker with agricultural details” (TAD) and “mend societal fundamentals” (MSF).	科学界分成了两个主要阵营：“在农业细节上小修小补”（TAD）和“改变社会基本面”（MSF）。


While the former approach has support from a clear majority, the latter is more convincing.	支持前者的显然占大多数，但后者更有说服力。


To be sure, the TAD camp has identified many important problems with current food production and distribution systems, and addressing them could indeed improve food security.	诚然，TAD阵营找到了当前粮食生产和分配体系的诸多重要问题，解决这些问题确实能够改善粮食安全。


Yields could be increased by developing better crop varieties.	培育更好的农作物可以提高产量。


Water, fertilizer, and pesticides should be used more efficiently.	水、肥料和杀虫剂应该得到更有效的使用。


Maintaining tropical forests and other relatively natural ecosystems would preserve critical ecosystem services, especially soil fertility, pollination, pest control, and climate amelioration.	保护热带雨林和其他相对自然的生态系统能够保护关键性生态系统功能，特别是土地肥沃性、授粉、害虫防治和气候改善。


The trend toward rising meat consumption should be reversed.	肉类消费日增的趋势应该扭转。


Stricter regulation of fisheries and ocean pollution would maintain the supply of marine protein essential to many people.	更严格地监管捕捞和海洋污染能够维持对许多人来说必不可少的海洋蛋白质。


Waste in food production and distribution should be reduced.	粮食生产和分配中的浪费情况应该尽量减少。


And people should be educated to choose more sustainable and nutritious foods.	人们还应该接受选择更加可持续和更有营养的食物的教育。


Achieving these goals, TAD supporters recognize, would require policymakers to give food security high political and fiscal priority, in order to support the needed research and action.	TAD支持者承认，实现这些目标需要决策者将粮食安全作为政治和财政重点以支持需要的研究和行动。


Responsibility for launching programs to distribute food more equitably would also fall to governments.	实施更公平地分配粮食的计划也是政府的责任。


But the TAD approach is incomplete.	但TAD方针并不完整。


Not only would its short-term goals be extremely difficult to achieve without more fundamental societal changes; even if they were attained, they would probably prove inadequate in the medium term, and certainly in the long term.	如果没有根本性社会变革，其短期目标极难实现； 而即使这些目标实现了，从中期看也未必充分，长期就更不用说了。


To see why, let us suppose that, in 2050, the TAD goals have all been reached.	我们来看一下原因。 假设在2050年，TAD的所有目标都已经实现。


More food is available, thanks to higher agricultural yields and waste-reducing improvements in storage and distribution.	拜农业产量提高和储存和分配阶段浪费的减少，人们可以获得更多的粮食。


Improved environmental policies mean that most of today’s forests are still standing and no-fishing zones are widely established and enforced.	改善的环境政策意味着今天的大部分森林依然矗立在地球上，并���建起了广泛的禁渔区并得到了执行。


Ecosystems are becoming stronger, with many corals and plankton evolving to survive in warmer, more acidic water.	生态系统变得更加强大，许多珊瑚和浮游生物通过进化适应了更温暖、更酸性的水环境。


Add an uptick in vegetarianism, and it appears that the global temperature rise could be limited to 3º Celsius.	素食也得到了普及，并且全球升温幅度能够限制在3℃以内。


As a result, the world could avoid famines by mid-century.	结果是世界能够在世纪中叶消灭饥荒。


But, in a human population of 9.7 billion, hunger and malnutrition would be proportionately the same as they are in today’s population of 7.3 billion.	但是，人口数量达到了97亿，从比例上看，饥饿和营养不良情况与今天的73亿人相当。


In other words, even with such an extraordinary and unlikely combination of accomplishments and good luck, our food-security predicament would still be with us.	换句话说，即便有实现了如此巨大和难以实现的成就并且获得十分好运气，我们的粮食安全困境仍将伴随我们。


The reason is simple: Our societies and economies are based on the flawed assumption that perpetual growth is possible on a finite planet.	原因很简单：我们的社会和经济基于错误的假设：这个有限的星球可以实现永久的增长。


To ensure global food security – not to mention other fundamental human rights – for all, we need to recognize our limitations, in terms of both social and biophysical factors, and do whatever it takes to ensure that we do not exceed them.	为了所有人的确保粮食安全——更不用说其他基本人权了——我们需要认识到我们的社会和生理两大方面的极限，并竭尽全力确保我们不超过这一极限。


Based on this conviction, the MSF approach demands that governments take steps to empower women in all areas of society, and ensure that all sexually active people have access to modern birth control, with women free to have an abortion, if they so choose.	基于这一认识，MSF方针要求政府采取措施赋予全世界女性以权利，并确保所有性活跃人类得到现代生育控制，女性拥有自主选择堕胎的自由。


At the same time, governments must address inequality of wealth, and thus of food, not least by curbing corporate dominance.	与此同时，政府必须解决财富不平等，进而解决粮食不平等，手段包括遏制公司主宰。


Short of bringing the global population down to sustainable levels, MSF reforms are the world’s only hope.	在无法让全球人口降到可持续水平以下的情况下，MSF改革是世界唯一的希望。


But, as it stands, implementing them seems unlikely.	但是，目前MSF希望渺茫。


The United States, the country that consumes the most, is moving in the opposite direction: women are struggling to hold onto their reproductive rights, wealth distribution is becoming increasingly skewed, and corporations are becoming even more powerful.	最大的消费国美国正在向反方向前进：女性正在为抓住生育权而斗争，财富分配日益倾斜，公司也越来越强大。


If this trend continues, in 2050, governance systems will be even more poorly equipped to deal with the fundamental problems of perpetual population and consumption growth or wealth inequality.	如果这一趋势持续下去，那么到2050年，治理体系将更加不适合处理人口和消费的永久性增加和财富不平等等基本问题。


As environments deteriorate from climate change, toxification, and loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, people will have less time and energy for governance reform aimed at reducing inequality or preserving the environment.	气候变化、毒化，以及生物多样性和生态系统功能的丧失导致环境日益恶化，人们进行旨在减少不平等性或保护环境的治理改革的时间和能量也越来越少。


As a result, those in power will feel less pressure to arrange systems to provide food to those who need it most.	结果，掌权者就更不会有压力改变制度，为最需要粮食的人提供粮食。


The social-biophysical system is replete with chicken-and-egg subsystems.	社会-生理系统充满着各种鸡-蛋子系统。 系统中并没有显而易见的单一弱点引发变化，因此，政府必须同时解决一系列问题。


Given that there is no obvious single vulnerable point in the system to initiate change, governments must address a range of issues simultaneously.	关键性起点包括清洗“大资金”政治； 引入更加累进的税收制度以有效遏制极端富裕人群的收入；


Key starting points include purging politics of “big money”; introducing a more progressive tax system that effectively caps the income of the extremely wealthy; ensuring that policymakers have a basic level of scientific understanding; and strengthening women’s rights, including access to free contraception.	确保决策者具备基本的科学理解力水平； 并强化女性权利，包括避孕的自由。


Just as social and environmental problems can be mutually reinforcing, so can actions aimed at strengthening our social and environmental fundamentals.	正如社会和环境问题可以互相强化，旨在强化我们的社会和环境基本面的行动也是如此。


Only by focusing on these fundamentals, rather than merely tinkering with the details of food production, can intrinsic systemic linkages work to the advantage of future generations.	唯有专注于这些基本面，而不仅仅是对粮食生产的细节进行小修小补，内在的系统性联系才能对未来子孙后代产生有利效果。


Football is War	足球就是战争


NEW YORK – The flags are already flying, from Holland to Argentina, from Cameroon to Japan.	纽约——从荷兰到阿根廷、从喀麦隆到日本，旗帜已经开始飘扬。


Soon the drums will be beating, the trumpets blowing.	战鼓很快就将擂起，号角也将吹响。


Colors will be unfurled, and battle cries will sound.	各种颜色会铺陈开来，战斗的呐喊将在耳边回响。


It’s that time again: the World Cup is upon us.	又到了这个世界杯即将拉开战幕的特殊时刻 。


The late Rinus Michels, also known as “the General,” coach of the Dutch team that narrowly lost to Germany in the 1974 final, famously said, “Football is war.”	1974年世界杯决赛曾小负德国队的已故荷兰足球队教练里纳斯·米歇尔斯绰号“将军”，他曾经说过一句名言，“足球就是战争。


When the Dutch had their revenge in 1988 and beat Germany to go on to become European champions, more people danced in the streets in Holland than on the day that the real war ended in May 1945.	” 当荷兰1988年得报一箭之仇，击败德国队成为欧洲杯冠军时，上街跳舞欢庆的荷兰人比1945年真正的战争结束日还要多。


On one occasion, in 1969, a football match between Honduras and El Salvador actually led to military conflict, known as the Soccer War.	1969年有一次，洪都拉斯和萨尔瓦多之间的足球赛真的引发了被称为“足球战争”的军事冲突。


Tensions between the two countries were already high.	当时两国间的局势已经是一触即发。


But then fans of the Honduras team were set upon, and even worse, the Honduran national anthem was insulted, and the country’s white and blue flag defiled.	但随后洪都拉斯队的球迷遭到袭击，更严重的是，洪都拉斯的国歌遭到侮辱，蓝白相间的国旗也遭到亵渎。


Of course, soccer wars are rare (indeed, I can’t think of another example), but the notion that international sporting competitions inevitably inspire warm fraternity – an idea advanced by Baron de Coubertin, founder of the modern Olympic games – is a romantic fiction.	当然，足球战争非常罕见（事实上我想不出还有其他例子），但顾拜旦男爵提出的现代奥运会总能激发热情和友爱的说法不过是一种浪漫的杜撰。


The violence of British football hooligans, for example, reflects a peculiar nostalgia for war.	比如英国足球流氓的暴力行为就反映出对战争的某种奇特的怀旧。


Life in peaceful times can be dull, and British glory seems a long way in the past.	和平年代的生活非常枯燥，大英帝国的荣耀也已经一去不返。


Football is an opportunity to experience the thrill of combat, without risking much more than a few broken bones.	足球可以让人体验到战斗的刺激，所要付出的代价不过是几处骨折。


Even when football doesn’t lead to actual bloodshed, it inspires strong emotions – primitive and tribal – evoking the days when warriors donned facial paint and jumped up and down in war dances, hollering like apes.	即使足球并未引发真实的流血事件，它也能激起人们强烈而原始的部族情感，让人联想到脸上涂满油彩的战士上窜下跳地跳起战舞，并像猩猩一样大声呼喊。


The nature of the game encourages this: the speed, the collective aggression.	这项运动的本质有利于激发这种情绪： 足球运动的本质一是速度，二是集体侵略性。


Tennis does not create frenzy on a national scale.	网球不会激起举国上下的疯狂情绪。


Not even boxing does, except on very rare occasions, such as when Joe Louis, the “Brown Bomber,” beat Max Schmeling, the Nazi favorite, in 1938.	除像1938年绰号“布朗轰炸机”的乔·路易斯击败纳粹最推崇的马克斯·施梅林这样的特殊案例外，就连拳击都达不到这样的效果。


After all, these forms of combat are between two individuals, not two tribes.	归根结底这些战斗都是两个人之间的较量，而不牵涉到两个部族。


Arthur Koestler was right when he said that there is nationalism, and there is football nationalism – and that the latter is the more deeply felt.	阿瑟·柯斯勒准确地指出存在民族主义和足球民族主义，而人们更能真切地感受到后者。


Koestler himself, born in Budapest but a proud British citizen, remained a Hungarian football nationalist all his life.	柯斯勒本人是生于布达佩斯的骄傲的英国人，终其一生一直是一位匈牙利足球民族主义者。


It helps to have traditional enemies, old hurts, and humiliations that need to be redressed, if only symbolically.	即使只具备象征意义，但足球可以洗清过去的耻辱和伤害，并让传统的仇敌屈服。


It would be hard for Americans, who are neither very good at soccer, nor cursed by great historical hatreds, to share the joy of the Dutch, say, when the Germans were defeated in 1988, or that of the Koreans when they defeat Japan.	既不擅长足球也没有背负沉重历史仇恨的美国人也许很难理解荷兰人在1988年击败德国人、或朝鲜人击败日本人时的那种喜悦。


Perhaps the best example of this type of sporting nationalism was not a football game, but the world ice hockey final in 1969, when Czechoslovakia beat the Soviet Union just one year after Soviet tanks rolled into Prague.	也许这种体育民族主义的最好例子不是某场足球赛，而是1969年举行的世界冰球决赛，当时捷克斯洛伐克人在苏联坦克开进布拉格一年后击败了苏联队。


The Czech players pointed their hockey sticks at the Russians like guns, and their victory provoked anti-Soviet riots back home.	捷克球员用冰球棒像枪一样指着苏联人，他们的胜利在捷克国内也引发了一场反苏暴动。


Clearly, then, whatever de Coubertin might have hoped, cosmopolitanism and cross-cultural brotherhood comes less naturally to human beings than the raw emotions of the tribe.	显而易见的是，无论顾拜旦曾抱有何种希望，世界主义和跨文化的兄弟情谊都不像原始的部族情绪那样唾手可得。


The tribe can be a club, a clan, or a nation.	这里的部族可以是一家俱乐部、一个家族乃至一个民族。


Before World War II, football clubs often had an ethnic or religious component: Tottenham Hotspur in London was “Jewish,” while Arsenal was “Irish.”	第二次世界大战前，足球俱乐部经常涉及种族或宗教因素： 伦敦的托特纳姆热刺具有“犹太”血统，而阿森纳则属“爱尔兰人”所有。


Vestiges of these markings remain: Ajax of Amsterdam is still taunted by provincial opponents as the “Jew club.”	类似标志的遗迹迄今仍清晰可辨： 阿姆斯特丹的阿贾克斯队仍然被国内的对手耻笑为“犹太俱乐部”。


And the Glasgow clubs, Celtic and Rangers, are still divided by religious affiliation, Celtic being Catholic and Rangers Protestant.	而决定格拉斯哥俱乐部凯尔特人队和流浪者队分野的也依然是宗教信仰，凯尔特人队主要由天主教球迷组成而流浪者队则大多来自新教。


But a common race or religion is not essential.	但共同的种族或宗教信仰并非必不可少。


The French football heroes who won the World Cup in 1998 included men of African and Arab origin, and they were proud of it.	捧起1998年世界杯的法国足球英雄涵盖了非洲和阿拉伯血统，他们也为此感到骄傲。


Most successful modern football clubs are as mixed as Benetton advertisements, with coaches and players from all over the globe, but this seems to have done nothing to diminish the enthusiasm of local supporters.	多数成功的现代足球俱乐部就像贝纳通广告般纷繁复杂，它们的教练和球员来自世界各地，但这似乎不能对当地支持者的热情产生丝毫影响。


In some countries, football is the only thing that knits together disparate people, Shia and Sunnis in Iraq, or Muslims and Christians in Sudan.	在某些国家，足球是将不同的人联系在一起的唯一纽带，比如伊朗的什叶派和逊尼派，还有苏丹的穆斯林和基督徒。


Of course, most right-thinking people are a bit like de Coubertin.	当然，多数头脑健全的人或多或少都会有与顾拜旦类似的想法。


Tribal emotions are embarrassing, and dangerous when given free reign.	如果完全任其发展，部族情绪既危险又令人尴尬。


After World War II, for obvious reasons, the expression of nationalist emotions was virtually taboo in Europe (not least in Germany).	二次大战后由于显而易见的原因，表达民族主义情绪几乎演变成欧洲的一种禁忌（尤其是在德国）。


We had all become good Europeans, and nationalism was for racists.	我们都成了友善的欧洲人，而民族主义只属于种族主义者。


And yet, since Koestler was right, these emotions could not simply be crushed.	但柯斯勒说得对，对待这样的情感不能只是简单的压制。


They had to find some outlet, and football provided it.	必需为它们寻找某种出口，而足球正好提供了这样通路。


The football stadium became a kind of reservation where taboos on tribal frenzy and even racial antagonism could be relaxed, but only up to a point: when the taunting of Ajax supporters as rotten Jews degenerated into actual violence, sometimes accompanied by a collective hiss, mimicking escaping gas, the city authorities decided to step in.	于是足球场成了一块可以放松部族疯狂甚至是种族对立禁忌的保留地，但也只能放松到一定程度： 当把阿贾克斯支持者污为烂犹太人的辱骂声降格为真实的暴力，有时还伴随着气体外泄般的嘘声汹涌而来，这座城市的政府决定干涉。


Some games have had to be played without the presence of rival supporters.	有几次不得不在没有对立球迷入场的情况下完成比赛。


Not all football games are fraught with negative feeling and violence.	并不是所有的足球比赛都充斥着负面感情和暴力行动。


This year’s World Cup might well be a festival of brotherhood and peace.	今年举行的世界杯赛很可能会成为和平与友谊的节日。


Few people even care anymore when Germany wins.	因为德国队的获胜而耿耿于怀的人已经很少。


But the fact that sport can unleash primitive emotions is not a reason to condemn it.	但体育运动能释放原始情感的事实并不是谴责它的理由。


Since such feelings cannot simply be wished away, it is better to allow for their ritual expression, just as fears of death, violence, and decay find expression in religion or bull fighting.	因为这样的情绪不可能消弭于无形，因此最好给它们提供一个仪式化的发泄出口，就像宗教或斗牛之于对死亡、暴力和腐烂的恐惧所达到的效果。


Even though some football games have provoked violence, and in one case even a war, they might have served the positive purpose of containing our more savage impulses by deflecting them onto a mere sport.	尽管某些足球比赛曾经激起暴力，甚至有一次引发了战争，但它们可能已经通过转移注意力，抑制了我们更加野蛮的冲动。


So let the games begin, and may the best team win.	因此让比赛开始吧，并预祝最好的球队获胜。


Which is Holland, of course, the country of my birth.	这只球队当然是荷兰，因为那里是生我养我的国家。


Football Nationalism	足球民族主义


AMSTERDAM -- The late Arthur Koestler, born in Budapest, resident of many countries, and writer in several languages, once said that there is nationalism, and there is football nationalism.	阿姆斯特丹-出生于布达佩斯特、曾在多个国家居住过、用多种语言写过书的亚瑟·柯斯勒曾说过民族主义是存在的，并且还有足球民族主义。


The feelings inspired by the latter are by far the stronger.	由后者所催生的情感甚至要强得多。


Koestler himself, a proud and loyal British citizen, remained a lifelong Hungarian soccer nationalist.	柯斯勒本人作为一名自豪和忠诚的英国公民，却终其一生都是一个匈牙利足球的民族主义者。


It is hard for Americans, whose “world series” are essentially domestic affairs, to understand the emotions engendered in European citizens when their nations compete for the European soccer championship every four years.	对于其所谓的“世界锦标赛”其实只是国内比赛的美国人来说，他们是很难理解欧洲公民在他们的国家队争夺四年一届的欧洲杯时所引发的情感的。


For several weeks this summer, the stadiums in Austria and Switzerland, not to mention the streets of European capitals, from Madrid to Moscow, were given to an orgy of flag-waving, anthem-singing, drum-beating patriotism.	在这个夏天的几周时间里，奥地利和瑞士的球场里，更别提从马德里到莫斯科欧洲各国首都的大街小巷里，到处都可以看到挥舞国旗、高唱国歌、击鼓等爱国主义的狂欢。


Spain’s victory was one of the rare occasions that Catalonians, Castillians, Basques, and Andalusians erupted together in an explosion of patriotic delight.	西班牙的胜利是少有的加泰罗尼亚人、卡斯蒂利亚人、巴斯克人和安达卢西亚人走到一起共同沉浸在爱国主义的狂热中的时刻。


Football, more than most sports, lends itself to tribal feelings: the collective effort, the team colors, the speed, the physical aggression. As a famous Dutch soccer coach once said, not in jest: “Soccer is war.”	足球比其他体育运动更能够催生族群的情感：集体的努力、团队的色彩、速度和身体攻击，正如一名著名的荷兰教练曾经说过的“足球就是战争” ， 他可不是在开玩笑。


It was not supposed to be like this.	但是这并不是人们所希望出现的情况。


After two world wars, displays of national fervor became more or less taboo in Europe.	经过两次世界大战后，民族热情的表现在欧洲多少被看作是一件禁忌的事物。


Nationalism was blamed for almost destroying the old continent twice in the 20th century.	人们批评民族主义差点在20世纪两次毁灭了这个古老的大陆。


The kind of exalted patriotism, especially when combined with warrior pride, that is still entirely normal in the United States, was for a long time associated with mass slaughter.	高涨的爱国主义情绪，尤其当它与战士的自豪感融合在一起时，在很长一段时间里被与大屠杀联系在一起，尽管这种情绪在美国还是非常普遍。


The English, who escaped occupation by a hostile power, and still believe they won World War II alone (well, with a little help from the Yanks), still have a militaristic streak.	侥幸逃脱没有被敌人所占领、并且依然认为是他们独自赢得了第二次世界大战（哦，是的，在美国佬一点点的帮助下）的英国人，依然还带有一点军人的气质。


They are exceptional.	他们是个例外。


Hence, perhaps, the notorious belligerence of English soccer fans.	这也许是英国球迷臭名昭著地好斗的原因所在。


And yet, even as nationalistic emotions were suppressed in polite society all over Europe, the soccer stadiums remained stubbornly in the pre-WWII world.	然而，即便民族主义情绪在整个欧洲的上流社会中受到了抑制，足球场依然还固执地维持地二战前的世界中。


Just as killing continues to be celebrated in ritualized form in Spanish bull rings, illicit tribal feelings are given full vent in the soccer arenas.	就像宰杀在西班牙斗牛中作为一种仪式被庆祝，在足球场上不正当的部族情绪也可以得到完全的宣泄。


These feelings can be festive, even carnival-like, as they were in Euro 2008.	这些情绪可以是节日性的，甚至是像狂欢节，就像在2008年欧洲杯上所表现出的那样。


But they can contain something darker, more aggressive, too, especially when sporting combat is loaded with historical memory.	但是它们也可能包含某种更黑暗、更具攻击性的东西，尤其是当体育竞争承载了历史记忆的时候。


Games between Holland and Germany, for example, or Germany and Poland, tended, until very recently, to be reenactments of the war; either – and most commonly – as melancholy replays of wartime defeat, or as sweet revenge.	比如荷兰队和德国队之间的比赛，或者德国队与波兰队之间的比赛，直到最近都还会让人感觉战争又一次爆发了； 通常失败的一方会再一次体会到战败所带来的情绪低落，胜者则会有一种复仇的甜蜜感。


When Holland beat Germany in the semi-finals of the 1988 European Championship, it was as though justice finally had been done.	当荷兰队在1988年欧洲杯的半决赛上击败德国队时，似乎正义终于得到了声张。


More Dutch people turned out in the streets of Amsterdam for a night and day of celebration than when the country was actually liberated in May, 1945.	走到阿姆斯特丹的大街上庆祝了一天一夜的荷兰人比这个国家在1945年5月真的被解放时走上街头的人都要多。


(Sometimes football history gets mixed up with “real” history; the defeat of a superior Dutch team by Germany in the World Cup final of 1974 also needed to be redressed.)	（有的时候足球场上的胜利会与“真的”历史混淆在一起； 高傲的荷兰队在1974年的世界杯上被德国队击败的历史也需要得到补偿。


The tribal feelings of Germans were considered, for obvious reasons, to be particularly toxic after Hitler’s Reich, which is why German flag-waving, until recently, was exercised with a slight air of shame-faced restraint that was entirely absent in surrounding countries.	因为显而易见的原因德国人的族群情绪在希特勒的第三帝国后被认为尤其有害，这也是为什么直到最近德国人在挥舞国旗时都有一点在周边国家根本见不到的那种羞涩的压抑感。


Yet Germans, too, are unable to suppress such feelings.	然而德国人也无法抑制这种情绪。


Older Germans can still remember their famous victory over a superb Hungarian team in 1954.	老的德国人还会记得他们在1954年对不可一世的匈牙利队所取得的那场著名的胜利。


It was the first time since their ruinous wartime defeat that Germans were able to feel proud of themselves.	这是德国人在战争中遭遇毁灭性的失败后第一次为他们自己感到自豪。


Here was a victory they could celebrate. After years of guilt and deprivation, the Germans were back, as it were.	这是一场他们可以庆祝的胜利，在经过多年的负罪感和贫困后，德国人终于又回来了。


Like everything else, forms of patriotism change over time. Reasons for national pride are varied.	像其他事物一样，爱国主义的表现形式也随着时间在变化，产生民族自豪感的原因也各不相同。


When France won the World Cup in 1998, the French liked to point out the ethnic diversity of their team.	当法国队赢得1998年世界杯时，法国人喜欢指出他们球队种族的多元性。


Their main star, Zinédine Zidane, was of Algerian stock. Others had ancestral roots in various parts of Africa.	他们最大的球星齐达内是阿尔及利亚后裔，还有其他球员的祖籍来自非洲的各个地方。


The multi-ethnic nature of the 1998 champion was widely touted as a mark, not of a long and often bloody colonial past, but of national superiority born from the tolerance of the French Enlightenment and the fraternity of the French Revolution.	1998年冠军球队的多种族特质被广泛地标榜为从法国启蒙运动的包容和法国大革命的兄弟情谊中产生民族优越感的标记，而不是过去一段很长并且经常是血腥的殖民主义历史的标记。


In fact, the French were harbingers of a kind. For something profound is changing in Europe, slowly, painfully, but surely.	事实上，法国人在某种程度上是一个先行者，因为欧洲正在经历某种缓慢、痛苦但却确实的深远变革。


If ethnic diversity is more and more common in national sides, it is even more marked in clubs.	如果说种族的多元化在国家的层面上已经变得越来越寻常，那么它在俱乐部的层面上就表现得更明显了。


Clubs, too, often used to command tribal loyalty along ethnic or religious lines, depending on their location in large industrial cities: Irish clubs versus Jewish clubs in London, for example, or Protestants versus Catholics in Glasgow.	俱乐部通常根据它们在大的工业城市中所处的位置而遵循部族的忠诚以及种族或宗教信仰的路线，比如伦敦的爱尔兰人俱乐部对犹太人俱乐部，或者格拉斯哥的新教徒俱乐部对天主教徒俱乐部。


Who would have predicted thirty years ago that British soccer fans would have cheered for a London team full of Africans, Latin Americans, and Spaniards, coached by a Frenchman? Or that the national English team would be managed by an Italian?	30年前，谁能够想到英国的球迷会为一支充满了非洲、拉丁美洲和西班牙球员、由一位法国人担任教练的伦敦球队，或者一支由意大利人担任教练的英格兰队加油呢？


But ethnic and cultural diversity is not all that has changed the face of European football.	但是种族和文化的多元性并非欧洲足球的面貌被改变的全部。


I have never seen such harmony between the supporters of different nations as in this year’s championship.	我从未见到过像今年的锦标赛上来自不同国家的支持者相处得如何和谐的场景。


Perhaps it was due to the absence of England, whose fans include the last bands of amateur warriors.	也许这部分是因为英格兰队的缺席，它的球迷里面包含了最后的一帮业余战士。


But the peaceful, carnival spirit that prevailed, the flying of Turkish and German flags side by side in German streets, when the two nations met in the semi-finals, the joint Spanish-German celebrations after the final, all this suggests something fresh.	但是和平和节日的气氛占据了上风，当土耳其队和德国队在半决赛上相遇时，我们看到德国的街道上两国的国旗在并肩挥舞，还有决赛后西班牙人和德国人共同庆祝的场面，都预示了某种新的东西。


Not that national feeling is dying, even as a new European spirit is being born.	这并不是说民族情感在消逝，即便一种新的欧洲精神正在诞生。


But at the very least national identities in Europe are no longer quite so colored by memories of war.	但是至少欧洲的民族身份不再被附加上如此鲜明的战争记忆的色彩。


No one much minds any more when Germany wins, as it so often does.	当德国队一次又一次地取胜时，没有人会特别介意。


The Germans are now much too nice for that.	德国人的表现现在特别好，无愧于这样的胜利。


Yet I have to admit that I still could not suppress a tiny, keenly felt pleasure when Germany lost to Spain.	然而我不得不承认当德国队输给西班牙队时我还是无法抑制很细微、但是很强烈的喜悦感。


Perhaps because Spain played more beautiful football. Or perhaps it just shows my age.	也许是因为西班牙队踢出了更漂亮的足球，或者也许它恰恰反映了我的年龄。


The Nuclear Illusion	核幻觉


GENEVA – As delegates from 189 countries gather to prepare for the next Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, due in 2015, I am reminded of my first official briefing, as a young Australian minister back in the early 1980’s, on United States nuclear strategy.	日内瓦—189个国家的代表齐聚一堂，准备将于2015年召开的新一届核不扩散条约（NPT，）审议会议。 这让我想起了我关于美国和战略的首次官方简报。


It was given to me, in the bowels of the Pentagon, by a man with a white dust jacket and a pointer who looked uncannily like Woody Allen.	那是在20世纪80年代，当时我还是年轻的澳大利亚部长。 在五角大楼，一名长得很像伍迪·艾伦的男子穿着防尘衫、带着指示器向我们作了报告。


He did not have much to say about the countless real human beings who would be vaporized, crushed, baked, boiled, or irradiated to death if a nuclear war ever erupted.	他并没有过多提及可能因核战争爆发而被蒸发、摧毁、烤焦、烧烂或受辐射至死的活生生的生命。


The language was disengaged and technical – all about throw-weights, survivability, counterforce, and countervalue targets.	他的发言是超脱的，是技术的——尽是些关于发射重量、生存能力、还击和打击目标的内容。


But it was a dazzling account of the logic of nuclear deterrence and the mechanics of mutually assured destruction, which both the US and Soviet Union applied throughout the Cold War.	但核威慑和确保互相摧毁机制的逻辑十分惹人注目——这也是美国和苏联在冷战期间所采用的战略。


Thirty years later, our world is not one in which the governments in Moscow or Washington are likely to hurl swarms of nuclear missiles at each other (if it ever was).	三十年后，世界已不再是莫斯科和华盛顿对峙、准备互相投掷核弹群的世界了（如果曾经是的话）。


Nor is it a world in which China or the US would conceivably ever intentionally start a nuclear war against the other.	这也不是中国或美国可以随心所欲互相发动核战争的世界了。


Even for India and Pakistan, the risk of misjudgment or miscalculation is much greater than that of deliberate nuclear warmongering.	即使是印度和巴基斯坦，误判和误算的风险也远远高于故意发动核战争的风险。


And, for North Korea – or Iran, should it ever build nuclear weapons – the risk of the regime initiating a nuclear attack is negligible, given that doing so would result in its certain (non-nuclear) incineration.	而朝鲜——或者伊朗，如果它造出核武器的话——发动核打击的可能性微乎其微，因为这样做会导致它自身（通过非核途径）化为焦土。


Not many delegates here in Geneva, even from the nuclear-armed states, would disagree with any of these assessments.	在日内瓦的衮衮诸公中，即使是来自有核国家的代表也不会反对这些看法。


But it is extraordinary how much of the disembodied calculus of my Woody Allen-lookalike still prevails in today’s nuclear policymaking.	但不同寻常的是，那位跟伍迪·艾伦神似的先生所做的空洞无物的报告仍左右着当今和决策。


Russia worries that its nuclear-tipped missiles, based largely in static locations, might be destroyed on the ground by a preemptive strike by long-range US missiles, and its retaliatory punch weakened by US ballistic missile defense.	俄罗斯担心其大部分位于静态发射场的核弹会被美国先发制人的长程导弹摧毁，而其报复性环境会因美国弹道导弹防御系统而遭到削弱。


Though it can paint no scenario in which this would ever occur, it not only drags its heels on further arms-reduction talks, but insists on keeping a thousand or so of its strategic nuclear weapons on launch-within-minutes alert status.	尽管没有迹象表明会发生这一幕，但这不但仍会拖累后续核裁军谈判，而且会继续要求保留一千枚左右的可随时发射战略核武器的警告。


Not surprisingly, the US refuses to de-alert its own nuclear missiles if Russia will not.	毫不奇怪，如果俄罗斯不削减核导弹，美国也将拒绝解除警报。


So nearly 2,000 weapons of mass destruction still face each other on high alert, maximizing the prospect of a catastrophe through human or system error or cyber sabotage.	因此，近2000枚大规模杀伤性武器仍以高警级对准着对方，要是出现人工或系统错误或网络破坏，极有可能导致灾难性后果


This deterrence logic produces a snowball effect.	这一威慑逻辑造成了雪球效应。


With Russia and the US holding 18,000 of the world’s current stockpile of 19,000 nuclear weapons, it is proving impossible to persuade any of the other nuclear-armed states to reduce their own (much smaller) arsenals until the Big Two make further drastic cuts to theirs.	俄罗斯和美国占了世界当前核武器存量19000枚中的18000枚，因此要说服其他有核国家削减其自身（小得多的）核武库是不可能的，除非两强进一步大规模削减核武器数量。


China shares Russia’s concerns about US conventional and missile-defense superiority, and is increasing and modernizing its estimated 240-weapon stockpile.	中国与俄罗斯有着相似的关于美国常规和导弹防御超级实力的担忧，并正在增加和现代化其大约240枚核武器。


With China taking that course, India – outside the NPT but with 100 weapons of its own – feels the need to add to its own arsenal.	中国这样做让印度——未签署NPT但拥有100枚核武器——觉得必须扩大其核武库。


And Pakistan then becomes even more determined to try to keep ahead of India.	接着，巴基斯坦也会更坚决的紧随印度步伐。


The truth is that none of the nuclear-armed states, inside or outside the NPT, pays anything more than lip service to the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons.	事实是，没有一个有核国家，不管它是否签署了NPT，会对最终消灭核武器做出动嘴皮子之外的努力。


The continued seductive power of the Cold War logic and language of nuclear deterrence is the primary reason, though for some states it is clear that the testosterone factor – perceived status and prestige – also plays a role.	冷战逻辑和核威慑逻辑仍有着迷人的魅力，成为主要理由，尽管对一些国家来说，睾丸素——对地位和特权的要求——也起着作用。


The uplifting pro-disarmament rhetoric of US President Barack Obama remains just that.	美国总统奥巴马令人振奋的支持销毁核武器的言论也就如此而已。


No nuclear-armed state will set a timetable for a major reduction in the number of nuclear weapons, let alone their abolition.	没有哪个有核国家会设置一张大规模削减核武器的时间表，更不用说废除了。


The size of their arsenals, their fissile material stocks, their force-modernization plans, their stated doctrine, and their known deployment practices all point in the same direction.	其核武库的规模、其可裂变物质储量、其军队现代化计划、其阐明的主张以及其已知的部署动作都指向同一个方向。


All foresee indefinite retention of their nuclear weapons, and a continuing role for them in their security policies.	所有人都预见它们将永久保留核武库，核武器将在它们的安全政策中继续扮演关键角色。


The implications of this stance are profoundly troubling.	这一立场的影响是深远而令人担忧的。


Concern about states in the Middle East and Northeast Asia joining the nuclear club is as high as it has ever been.	对中东和东北亚国家加入核俱乐部的担忧与以往一样高。


But the foot-dragging by the nuclear states on disarmament is making it increasingly difficult to add necessary new muscle to the global non-proliferation regime.	但有核国家在去核化问题上的拖延让强化全球核不扩散机制变得愈加困难了。


This was obvious at the last NPT Review Conference in 2010, when efforts to mandate stronger safeguards, strengthen compliance and enforcement mechanisms, and inject new life into the control of fissile-material production all went nowhere.	这在上一次2010年NPT审议会议上清晰可见，当时，加强保卫、强化遵守和执行机制以及给控制可分裂物质生产注入新活力的努力都无疾而终。


And that sentiment is alive and well in Geneva this week.	这样的情绪在本周的日内瓦也显而易见。


Of course, it is irrational for those whose ultimate objective is a nuclear-weapons-free world to support anything but the strongest non-proliferation measures.	当然，对于以无核武器的世界为终极目标的人来说，支持除最强不扩散措施之外的任何东西都是不合理的。


But bloody-mindedness is a natural and inevitable reaction when leaders see double standards – “my security concerns justify nuclear weapons, but yours do not” – at work on this scale.	但当领导人看到双重标准——“我的安全担忧需要核武器，你的不需要”——如此盛行时，他们就会采取一眼对眼的态度。


Progress toward achieving a safer and saner world requires all of the nuclear-armed states to break out of their Cold War mindset, rethink the strategic utility of nuclear deterrence in current conditions, and recalibrate the huge risks implied by retaining their arsenals.	实现更安全、更正常世界的道路需要所有有核国家打破冷战思维，重新思考当前形势下核威慑的战略功能，深思保持核武库所暗含的巨大风险。


It is time for them to recognize that in today’s world, nuclear weapons are the problem, not the solution.	他们应该认识到当今世界核武器是问题，而不是问题的解决方案了。


Whose QE Was it, Anyway?	那么，到底是谁的QE？


CAMBRIDGE – Between 1913 (when the United States Federal Reserve was founded) and the latter part of the 1980s, it would be fair to say that the Fed was the only game in town when it came to purchases of US Treasury securities by central banks.	坎布里奇—从1913年（美联储成立于是年）到20世纪80年代后半，可以说美联储是唯一一家购买美国国债的中央银行。


During that era, the Fed owned anywhere between 12% and 30% of US marketable Treasury securities outstanding (see figure), with the post-World War II peak coming as the Fed tried to prop up the sagging US economy following the first spike in oil prices in 1973.	在这段时间里，美联储大约持有12—30%的未到期可交易美国政府证券（见图），二战后的最大持有量出现在1973年第一次石油价格暴涨后，美联储为了提振美国经济而大量购买国债。


We no longer live in that US-centric world, where the Fed was the only game in town and changes in its monetary policy powerfully influenced liquidity conditions at home and to a large extent globally.	美联储独领风骚、其货币政策严重影响国内和全球大部流动性的以美国为中心的日子早已一去不返。


Years before the global financial crisis – and before the term “QE” (quantitative easing) became an established fixture of the financial lexicon – foreign central banks’ ownership of US Treasuries began to catch up with, and then overtake, the Fed’s share.	全球金融危机爆发前多年——“QE”（量化宽松）一词成为财经词典词条之前——外国央行的美国国债持有量便开始赶上甚至超过美联储的比重。


The purchase of US Treasuries by foreign central banks really took off in 2003, years before the first round of quantitative easing, or “QE1,” was launched in late 2008.	外国央行大量购买美国国债真正始于2003年，远早于2008年末开始实施的第一轮量化宽松（QE1）。


The charge of the foreign central banks – let’s call it “QE0” – was led by the People’s Bank of China.	外国央行赶超美联储——让我们称之为“QE0”——的“带头大哥”是中国人民银行。


By 2006 (the peak of the US housing bubble), foreign official institutions held about one-third of the stock of US Treasuries outstanding, approximately twice the amount held by the Fed.	2006年（美国房地产泡沫顶峰），外国官方机构持有了大约三分之一的未到期美国国债存量，大约是美联储持有量的两倍。


On the eve of the Fed’s QE1, that share stood at around 40%.	在美联储实施QE1前夕，这一比率为40%左右。


Spanning a decade (2003-2013), QE0 was the most sustained and uninterrupted surge in central banks’ purchases of Treasuries on record.	QE0历时大约十年（2003—2013年），是历史上各国央行持续时间最久的不间断地购买美国国债的时期。


It is difficult to determine the extent to which the Fed’s QE1 during the crisis owed its success in bringing interest rates down to the fact that it was being reinforced by what foreign central banks worldwide – notably in Asia – were doing simultaneously.	很难确定金融危机期间美联储QE1在推低利率方面所取得的成功在多大程度上要归因于全世界外国央行（主要是亚洲央行）被迫也同时这样做。


It is instructive, however, that the Fed’s next two policy installments, QE2 and QE3, were not matched by large foreign purchases and appeared to have only modest effects in financial markets.	但是，美联储随后两次QE，即QE2和QE3，并没有大量外国购买与之配合，给金融市场造成的影响也相当温和，这一事实很能说明问题。


After the turmoil of the 2008 crisis subsided, a variety of indices of financial conditions displayed comparatively low levels of volatility (by historic standards) through the spring of 2013.	2008年危机退去后，各项金融状况指标显示，2013年春季波动性相对较低（从历史标准看）。


But that spring bloom of stability soon faded.	但这个稳定之春很快就退却了。


A combination of falling oil and primary commodity prices, an over-ripe business cycle, and the Fed’s announcement of its intent to start “tapering” its asset purchases brought the decade-long boom in many emerging markets to an end.	油价和初级商品价格下跌、过于成熟（over-ripe）的商业周期，以及美联储宣布意欲开始“逐渐减少”其资产购买量让许多新兴市场长达十年的繁荣走向尾声。


Since then, growth in these economies has slowed markedly, their stock markets have slumped, capital outflows have escalated, and many of their currencies have crashed.	自此以后，这些经济体增长率大幅下降，股市暴跌，资本外流升级，许多经济体的汇率也出现了崩溃。


In tandem with this grim turn of events, numerous emerging-market central banks reversed course and began selling US Treasuries.	与这些急转直下的情况同时发生的是大量新兴市场央行开始转而抛售美国国债。


We would not know about these sales, however, from the Fed’s quarterly report of the Financial Accounts of the US: Around the time official sales commenced, the Fed stopped reporting US Treasuries held by foreign official institutions (a series of data that had been available since 1945).	但是，从美联储的美国金融账户季报上，我们看不出这些抛售行为：在官方抛售开始前后，美联储停止报告外���官方机构持有美国国债的情况（这一数据的报告始于1945年）。


The report now shows only the aggregate figure, which combines central bank holdings with those of the private sector.	现在，美联储报告只列出加总数据，包括央行和私人部门持有量之和。


Fortunately, the US Treasury still publishes the information.	幸运的是，美国财政部仍在发布这方面的信息。


As of the end of 2015, the share of Treasuries held by foreign central banks is more than 1.5 times what the Fed holds.	2015年底，外国央行持有美国国债的量是美联储的1. 5倍多。


But this figure is significantly down from its peak and, with capital outflows from China and elsewhere showing little signs of abating, is now trending lower.	但这一数字较峰值大幅下降，并且从中国和其他国家资本流出势头不减的情况看，趋势是继续下降。


The fitful and disorderly unwinding of QE0 is most likely overwhelming the effects of reassurances by Fed officials that they will maintain a large balance sheet.	QE0的间歇性无序退出可能会让美联储官员维持资产负债表体量的承诺毫无效果。


Indeed, tighter liquidity conditions and increased volatility in financial markets are the byproduct of the reversal in the long cycle of foreign purchases.	事实上，流动性情况的收紧和金融市场波动的增加乃是漫长的外国购买周期逆转的副产品。


The unwinding of QE0 does not necessarily imply a decline in the rest of the world’s appetite for US Treasuries.	QE0的结束并不一定会降低世界其他部分购买美国国债的偏好。


In times of financial turbulence, US Treasuries have historically been a safe haven for private flight capital.	在金融动荡时期，美国国债历史上一直是私人外逃资本的安全港。


But the change in ownership taking place now does carry implications for financial stability.	但目前所发生的所有权变迁确实给金融稳定带来了影响。


The change from the steady (and often predictable) purchases of the foreign central banks of the 2003-2013 era to the less predictable hands of private investors, who are more sensitive to changes in rates of return, is likely to be the signature of this stage of the global cycle.	从2003—2013年由外国央行稳定（且通常可预测）购买美国国债转变为由对回报率变化更加敏感、也更加难以预测的私人投资者购买美国国债，这也许是全球周期的现阶段的一个显著特征。


Expecting the Unexpected in America	意料之中的美国意外


DENVER – When the United States’ new president gets down to work in January 2017, some obvious foreign-policy issues will already be waiting – some more patiently than others.	丹佛——当美国新总统2017年1月开始工作时，有些明显的外交事务已经在等待之中——其中有些事务比其他更有耐心。


Some of these will be perennial problems in need of no introduction: North Korea and its nuclear ambitions, China and its global ambitions, Russia and its spiteful ambitions, and of course, the Middle East and its dysfunctional ambitions.	其中有些长期问题不需要介绍：朝鲜及其核野心、中国及其全球野心、俄罗斯及其恶毒野心，当然还有中东及其不正常的野心。


Often, however, the crises that greet a new president are not the ones anyone expects.	但迎接新总统的危机往往出乎所有人预料之外。


When George W. Bush took office in 2001, he expected to increase defense spending, deploy an anti-missile system, and dismantle several longstanding multilateral arms-control obligations.	当乔治·W·布什2001年宣誓就任时，他本想增加国防开支、部署反导系统并解除几项长期多边武器控制义务。


Instead, the administration faced issues that were completely unforeseen, including Afghanistan and Iraq, and that consumed it for the next eight years.	但事实却恰恰相反，布什政府所面临的问题完全出乎预料，其中包括阿富汗和伊拉克问题，在接下来的8年中一直困扰着布什政府。


The same thing could happen again when the next administration takes office.	下一任政府就职时同样的情况也可能发生。


A few possibilities stand out.	脱颖而出的有几种可能性。


Start with Saudi Arabia.	以沙特阿拉伯为例。


To anyone paying close attention to the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, especially the weakening of many of its key nation-states and the rise of extremist violence, a severe crisis in the Kingdom is no dark-horse candidate.	对任何密切关注中东地区持续动荡、特别是众多重要民主国家持续衰落和极端暴力逐渐兴起的人而言，沙特王国爆发严重危机并不是黑天鹅事件。


Saudi Arabia has shown remarkable resilience in overcoming political weakness, often by using its considerable oil revenues to buy itself out of trouble and maintain a large royal family that has been an essential source of stability.	沙特阿拉伯在克服政治弱点方面一直表现出极强的韧性，往往利用其可观的石油收入出钱平息事端并保留庞大的王室家族作为稳定的重要来源。


That stability may continue, but it is becoming less of a sure bet.	这样的稳定可能继续下去，但其确定性正在逐步递减。


With oil prices experiencing a prolonged slump, and new sources (for example, Iran) coming onstream, the Saudis will not find dipping into financial reserves quite as effortless a proposition as it has been in the past.	随着油价长期低迷和新的石油来源（比方说伊朗）即将投产，沙特人将会发现用财政储备解决问题不再像过去那样毫无困难。


To be sure, by the standards of most countries, Saudi financial reserves are enormous; but so are the aspirations of its disgruntled public, not to mention the growing regional problems and the regime’s sense that it must step up its efforts – often financial – to counter Iran’s growing regional influence.	可以肯定，按照多数国家的标准，沙特的财政储备非常庞大； 但其牢骚满腹的公众愿望也同样庞大，更不要说地区问题持续恶化以及沙特政权感到必须加紧努力——上述努力往往涉及到财政方面——来抵制伊朗日益增长的地区影响力。


With another aging monarch in King Salman, the Saudis’ day of reckoning in today’s polarized and radicalized Middle East could be approaching.	随着另一位高龄君主萨尔曼国王的上台，沙特在今天极化而激进的中东清算的日子可能会很快到来。


Then there is Turkey.	再有就是土耳其。


In the past, this key regional actor suffered perennial economic crises, bouts of hyperinflation, and occasional military coups that, brutal as some were, seemed to many Turks a welcome respite from weak center-left and center-right governments.	过去，这股关键的地区势力常年遭受经济危机、多次爆发恶性通胀并偶尔发生军事政变，虽然有些政变非常残酷，但在许多土耳其人看来却是远离衰弱的中左翼和中右翼政府的受人欢迎的喘息之机。


And, despite its economic and political dysfunction, Turkey managed to maintain a positive image, owing in part to its ambition to join the European Union.	而且，尽管存在着经济和政治领域的障碍，但部分因为希望加入欧盟的雄心，土耳其依然成功树立了一种积极的形象。


Hope always seemed to outweigh the country’s accomplishments, but it was always viewed in Western circles as a reliable partner and ally.	这个国家似乎总是希望比成就更大，但它在西方国家眼中一直被视为可靠的盟友和伙伴。


Today, whether owing to “neo-Ottomanism” or just old-fashioned nasty governance under a thin-skinned autocrat (President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) with Islamist tendencies, Turkey is on many watch lists.	今天，无论是因为“新奥特曼主义”抑或仅仅是有伊斯兰倾向的小气的独裁者老掉牙的令人讨厌的治理（总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安），土耳其已经进入到不止一份观察名单。


Its intervention in Middle East politics has been furtive and lacking in consistency or clarity.	土耳其一直偷偷摸摸地干预中东政治，这种干预既缺乏一致性条理也不甚清晰。


At first, Turkey seemed to support Syria’s Alawite leadership under President Bashar al-Assad, then switched sides, joining a coalition of Sunni Arab states in the so-far disastrous effort to remove Assad.	起初，土耳其似乎支持叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德领导的阿拉维派，其后又转变立场加入逊尼派阿拉伯国家联盟，参与了迄今为止消灭阿萨德的灾难性努力。


In the meantime, Turkey’s longstanding problems with its restive Kurdish minority have returned with a vengeance as Erdoğan has resorted to strong-arming the Kurds into submission, an approach that he has applied to his many domestic opponents, as well the media and civil-society groups.	与此同时，土耳其与其动荡的库尔德少数民族之间的长期问题因为埃尔多安试图强制库尔德人就范而出现报复性反弹，埃尔多安曾采用同样的手段对付众多国内对手，以及媒体和民间社会组织。


Turkey’s internal politics have worsened by the day, and the country’s deep divisions, which reflect entrenched historical and sociological fault lines, show no signs of narrowing under a president who seems temperamentally incapable of winning over anyone who is not already a follower.	土耳其的内政局面不断恶化，而且该国的深刻分歧（反映了其根深蒂固的历史和社会分界线）在一个似乎无法靠人格魅力赢得除追随者以外任何人的总统领导下没有任何迹象表明能够出现缓和。


A resolution of the crisis in Syria would certainly help Turkey, especially given its role as the prime destination for refugees from the chaos there; but the governance shortcomings with which Turks must reckon are profound.	解决叙利亚危机无疑会为土耳其提供帮助，尤其因为土耳其是叙利亚混乱所产生难民的主要目的地； 但土耳其人必须思考的治理缺陷影响深远。


Turkey may muddle through its current predicament (as it has many times before), and maintain its unity and its purpose.	土耳其人可以（像以前多次那样）度过目前的困境，并保持国家的团结和目的。


Or not.	或者它也可以反其道而行之。


Those hardy perennials may return as well.	那些顽固的长期��机也可能再次出现。


But the crises they cause may be different in degree and substance.	但它们可能会造成程度和内容不同的危机。


North Korea is one such case.	朝鲜就是这样一个例子。


Its current leader, Kim Jong-un, seems far more dangerous than his father, Kim Jong-il, or grandfather, Kim Il-sung.	该国现任领导人金正恩的危险程度似乎远超其父金正日、或其祖父金日成。


The regime’s proclivity to threaten war against its neighbors did not start with Kim 3.0, of course.	当然，朝鲜政权威胁对其邻国发动战争的倾向并非自金氏3. 0始。


After all, his grandfather actually started the Korean War in 1950.	归根结底，他的祖父于1950年实际挑起了朝鲜战争。


But Kim’s recklessness, combined with his relentless effort to build deliverable nuclear weapons, may push the North Korean problem to the top of the new president’s agenda.	但金正恩的鲁莽，再加上他建造可发射型核武器的不懈努力，可能将朝鲜问题推到新总统议程排名靠前的位置。


Finally, there is China.	最后，还有中国问题。


For many Americans, the risks posed by China lie in its strength.	对很多美国人而言，中国所造成的威胁在于其实力。


In fact, the real cause for concern is not China’s strength, but rather incipient weakness, which could plunge the country – and the many others that depend on its economic performance – into crisis.	事实上，中国真正令人担忧的并不是实力，而是其早期遗留的弱点，这些弱点可能让这个国家——以及其他很多依赖于它经济表现的人——陷入危机。


One hopes that all of the current candidates vying for the US presidency will be up to the challenges – both perennial and unanticipated – that they will face.	人们希望竞争美国总统的所有候选人都有迎接他们将要面临的（无论长期还是意外）挑战的能力。


In some cases, to be frank, those hopes may be monumentally unrealistic.	在某些情况下，坦率地讲，这样的希望可能非常不现实。


In any case, there will be little room for error.	无论如何，现实都不允许我们犯错误。


Forget Inflation	忘掉通胀


MUNICH – To paraphrase Winston Churchill, never have so many billions of dollars been pumped out by so many governments and central banks.	慕尼黑—套用温斯顿·丘吉尔的句子，从来没有如此众多的政府和央行拿出如此巨额，动辄数以十亿计的美元。


The United States government is pumping $789 billion into its economy, Europe $255 billion, and China $587 billion.	美国政府为本国经济注资7890亿美元，欧洲是2550亿美元，中国则是5870亿美元。


The US Federal Reserve increased its stock of base money in 2008 by 97%, the European Central Bank by 37%.	美联储2008年将基础货币的存量提高了97%，欧洲央行也提高了37%。


The Federal funds rate in the US is practically zero, and the European Central Bank’s main refinancing rate, already at an all-time low of 2%, will likely fall further in the coming months.	美国的联邦基金利率实际为零，而欧洲央行的主要再贷款利率虽然一直以来已经低到2%，还是可能在以后的几个月中降得更低。


The Fed has given ordinary banks direct access to its credit facilities, and the ECB no longer rations the supply of base money, instead providing as much liquidity as banks demand.	美联储已经授权普通银行直接动用它的信贷工具，而欧洲央行（ECB）也不再限制基础货币的供应，反而是银行要求多少流动性，它就提供多少。


Since last October, Western countries’ rescue packages for banks have reached about $4.3 trillion.	从去年10月以来，西方国家为银行提供的救助资金已经达到了约4. 3万亿美元。


Many now fear that these huge infusions of cash will make inflation inevitable.	许多人现在担心大量注入现金将会不可避免地带来通货膨胀。


In Germany, which suffered from hyper-inflation in 1923, there is widespread fear that people will again lose their savings and need to start from scratch.	德国曾在1923年饱受高通胀之苦，现在人们普遍担心他们将再次丧失积蓄，需要从头再来。


Other countries share this concern, if to a lesser extent.	其他国家也有同样的忧虑，只是程度稍小一些。 。


But these fears are not well founded.	然而这些担心并不太有根据。


True, the stock of liquidity is rising rapidly. But it is rising because the private sector is hoarding money rather than spending it.	的确，流动性的存量是在快速上升，但是上升的原因是私人正把钱贮存起来而不是花费出去。


By providing extra liquidity, central banks merely reduce the amount of money withdrawn from expenditure on goods and services, which mitigates, but does not reverse, the negative demand shock that hit the world economy.	通过提供额外的流动性，央行只是削减了从商品和服务领域撤出的消费资金数量。 这缓和了消极需求的震荡（打击世界经济的正是这种震荡），但却没有彻底改变局势。


This is a trivial but important point that follows from the theory of supply and demand.	这是源自供需理论的一种平常却重要的观点。


Think of the oil market, for example. It is impossible to infer solely from an increase in the volume of transactions how the price of oil will change.	譬如，想想石油市场：仅仅从交易量的上升就推断石油的价格将会怎样变化，这是不可能的。


The price will fall if the increase resulted from growth in supply, and it will rise if the increase resulted from growth in demand.	如果这种上升源于供应量的增加，那么价格将下降。 如果源于需求的增加，价格就会上升。


With the increase in the aggregate stock of money balances, things are basically the same.	货币余额储存总量的上升也基本如此。


If this increase resulted from an increase in supply, the value of money will go down, which means inflation.	如果这种上升是因为增加供应而引起的，货币的价值将会下降，也就是说发生通货膨胀。


But if it resulted from an increase in demand, the value of money will increase, which means deflation.	但是如果是源于需求增长，则货币的价值也会增加，会发生通货紧缩。


Obviously, the latter risk is more relevant in today’s conditions.	很明显，在今天的情况下发生后者（通货紧缩）的危险更大。


If the underlying price trend is added to this, it is easily understandable why inflation rates are currently coming down everywhere.	如果再加上潜在的价格趋势，就容易理解为什么现在各地的通货膨胀率都在下滑。 美国的年度通胀率从2008年7月的5.


In the US, the annual inflation rate fell from 5.6% in July 2008 to 0.1% in December 2008, and in Europe from 4.4% in July 2008 to 2.2% in January 2009.	欧洲则从2008年7月的4. 4%降至2009年1月的2.


At the moment, no country is truly suffering deflation, but that may change as the crisis deepens.	此刻，还没有国家真正承受着通货紧缩的折磨。 但是，随着危机深化，这一幕却可能会发生变化。


Germany, with its notoriously low inflation rate, may be among the first countries to experience declining prices.	曾经因为低通胀率而名噪一时的德国可能会成为首批物价下降的国家之一。


The most recent data show that the price index in January was up by only 0.9% year on year.	最新的数据显示，1月的价格指数仅仅是比去年同期上升了0. 9%。


This deflationary tendency will create serious economic problems, which do not necessarily result from deflation as such, but may stem from a natural resistance to deflation.	这种通缩趋势将会产生严重的经济问题。 这些问题不一定是因为通缩产生的，倒有可能是源于针对通缩作出的天然抵抗。


In each country, a number of prices are rigid, because sellers resist selling cheaper, as low productivity gains and wage defense by unions leave no margin for lower prices.	每个国家都有许多价格是固定的，因为卖方反对降价销售，其原因在于：较低的产能收益和工会的工资保障制度没有留出任何降价的空间。


Thus, deflationary pressure will to some extent result in downward quantity adjustments, which will deepen the real crisis.	因此，通缩的压力在某种程度上将会导致减量调整，而这又会加深真正的危机。


Moreover, even if prices on average exhibit some downward flexibility, deflation necessarily increases the real rate of interest, given that nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero.	而且，即使价格通常会显示出向下的灵活性，考虑到利率不能降到零以下，则通缩必然会增加实际利率。


The result is an increase in the cost of capital to firms, which lowers investment and exacerbates the crisis.	结果就是注入公司的资本费用也会增加，这会降低投资，并使危机恶化。


This would be a particular problem for the US, where the Fed allowed the Federal funds rate to approach zero in January 2009.	对于美国而言，这个问题将尤为严重—美联储已经同意使得基金利率在2009年1月几乎为零。 .


The only plausible inflationary scenario presupposes that when economies recover, central banks do not raise interest rates sufficiently in the coming boom, keeping too much of the current liquidity in the market.	唯一貌似有理的通胀方案假定当经济复苏的时候，央行在随之而来的繁荣中不会充分提高利率，从而把当前绝大部分的流动资金留在市场。


Such a scenario is not impossible.	这种方案并非全无可能。


This is the policy Italians pursued for decades in the pre-euro days, and the Fed might one day feel that it should adopt such a stance.	这是意大利在前欧元时代执行了好几十年的政策，美联储有朝一日可能会感觉它应该采取这一姿态。


But the ECB, whose only mandate is to maintain price stability, cannot pursue this policy without fundamental changes in legislation.	但是欧洲央行的唯一授权就是保持价格稳定，在立法没有发生根本变化的情况下，它不能采取这一政策。


Moreover, this scenario cannot take place before the slump has turned into a boom.	而且，在衰退变成繁荣之前，这一幕也不会发生。


So, for the time being, the risk of inflation simply does not exist.	因此，通胀的危险暂时并不存在。


Japan provides good lessons about where the true risks are, as it has been suffering from deflation or near-deflation for 14 years.	真正的危险在哪里？ 深受紧缩或近似紧缩之害长达14年之后，日本就此提供了深刻的教训。


Since 1991, Japan has been mired in what Harvard economist Alvin Hansen, a contemporary of Keynes, once described as “secular stagnation.”	自1991年以来，日本就深陷在被哈佛经济学家阿尔文·汉森（一位当代的凯恩斯）描述为“长期停滞”的状态之中。


Ever since Japan’s banking crisis began in 1990, the country has been in a liquidity trap, with central bank rates close to zero, and from 1998 to 2005 the price level declined by more than 4%.	从1990年日本开始发生金融危机以来，这个国家已经陷入流动性的陷阱，央行利率接近为零。 1998年至2005年期间，价格水平下降了4%。


Japanese governments have tried to overcome the slump with Hansen’s recipes, issuing one Keynesian program of deficit spending after the other and pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 64% in 1991 to 171% in 2008.	日本政府曾经尝试使用汉森的方法来克服衰退，接二连三地发布凯恩斯式的赤字开支方案，把债务/GDP比率从1991年的64%拉高到2008年的171%。


But all of that helped only a little.	但所有这一切都是效果寥寥。


Japan is still stagnating.	日本仍然停滞不前。


Not inflation, but a Japanese-type period of deflationary pressure with ever increasing public debt is the real risk that the world will be facing for years to come.	世界在以后数年里要面对的真正危险不是通货膨胀，而是承担日本式的通货紧缩压力和不断上涨的国债。


Forging a European Worldview	打造统一的欧洲世界观


WARSAW – Some complain that the European Union lacks a “worldview.” In fact, the EU’s problem is that it has too many of them.	发自华沙——有些人抱怨说欧盟缺乏“世界观”，但事实上，欧盟的问题就在于有太多不同的“世界观”了。


Europeans’ common experiences and interests mean that they should have a shared view on global issues.	欧洲人拥有的共同的经历和利益，这意味着他们在全球事务上必须持有一致的观点。


But the sad reality is that political, social, and economic pressures tend to push EU members and citizens in opposing directions; shared histories, it seems, are an insufficient basis for shared policies.	但残酷的现实告诉我们，那些来自政治，社会和经济方面的压力正在把欧盟成员国和公民们推向这一趋势的对立面。 由此可见，共同的历史并不足以构筑共同政策的基础。


Nevertheless, the more pragmatic Europe’s policies are, the greater the chances of success, not least when it comes to global issues.	但无论如何，欧洲的政策越注重实效，其成功的可能性就越大，而这一点尤其在全球事务方面明显。


Europeans have a shared appraisal of many of the world’s problems, and often put forward common methods and strategies for coping with them.	对许多世界性问题欧洲人往往都会作出一致的评价，并经常采取相同的方法和战略来处理这些事情。


For example, on climate change, immigration, and development aid, there is growing consensus, as there is on energy policy and the further development of the European Security Strategy.	比如在气候变化，移民和发展援助，以及能源政策和欧洲安全战略的进一步深化等问题上，越来越多的共识都凸显了出来。


Agreement in these areas is not merely a reflection of some lowest common denominators; in each area, Europe has contributed important added value at a global level.	而这些领域所取得的一致并不仅仅反映了某些最基本的共同点； 在每个领域，欧洲都为世界贡献了重要的附加值。


Indeed, Europe’s community of attitudes is becoming synonymous with solutions to world problems.	的确，在应对各种世界性问题时，欧洲各国的态度越来越相似。


After all, climate change, energy security, and demographic challenges have been part of the European discourse for many years; now that discourse is starting to be shared by other parts of the world.	毕竟欧洲在应对气候变化，能源安全和人口挑战等问题上的内部辩论早已持续了很多年。 而今，这一讨论也开始在世界其他国家中扩散开来。


The global financial and economic crisis may also be a catalyst for promoting Europe’s vision of a new world order.	而全球经济金融危机也可能成为一种催化剂，促使欧洲形成一个新的世界秩序愿景。


The EU vision of a capitalist economy harnessed to social progress and subject to regulation, rather than laissez-faire, is growing in influence.	欧盟憧憬于建立一个服务于社会进步且服从于规管的资本主义经济，而不是完全自由放任的资本主义经济，而此愿景的影响力正变得越来越大。


New economic powers like China, India, and Brazil must find their own ways of addressing social injustice and encouraging equal opportunity for all, and the European model looks increasingly attractive to them.	中国，印度和巴西等新兴经济体必须找到自身独特的道路来解决社会不公正问题并鼓励机会平等，而欧洲模式对他们也越来越具有吸引力。


Yet many differences still separate societies within the EU. There are divergent views on many vital global problems.	然而，许多分歧仍然在割裂着欧盟内部的各个社会，而在许多关键的全球性问题上也依然存在着不同的观点。


And although these differences may grow smaller with time, they occasionally take on an alarmingly clear-cut form, as in the case of the United States-led invasion of Iraq.	尽管这些分歧可以随着时间而消减，但它们偶尔也会以一种令人担忧的形势清晰地呈现出来，比如在美国领导下入侵伊拉克就是其中一例。


It is nevertheless comforting that Europe’s differences on global issues have not had an excessive impact on the EU’s internal dynamics.	但令人倍感安慰的是，欧洲关于世界性事务的分歧并没有对欧盟肌体内的活力产生过度的影响。


The war in Iraq did not delay the Union’s “big bang” enlargement, and was not the reason for the failure of referenda in France and the Netherlands on the Constitutional and Lisbon treaties.	伊拉克战争并有延缓欧盟“大爆炸”式的扩张，也不是导致欧盟宪法和里斯本条约在法国和荷兰投票失败的原因。


And Europe does need to develop structures and decision-making processes that limit conflicts of interest by offering compromise solutions.	与此同时，欧盟也不需要形成可以提供折中方案的架构和决策过程，以形成限制利益冲突。


This is the crux of the Lisbon Treaty, which is designed to usher in new institutions and mechanisms aimed at creating more politically cohesive EU external policies.	这也是《里斯本条约》的核心所在，这一条约旨在引入新制度和机制以制定在政治上更有凝聚力的欧盟外部政策。


Transferring more areas of responsibility, such as foreign aid and development policies, to EU institutions helps the Union to adapt to new international realities by underpinning its growing importance as Europe’s decision-making center.	通过把诸如国外援助和制定发展政策等更多的责任转移给欧盟机构，不但巩固了欧盟作为欧洲决策中心日益重要的地位，更有助于欧盟去适应新的国际现状。


Shaping a shared vision of the world should start with Europe’s immediate neighborhood.	如果要形成一个共同的愿景的话，那么首先就要从欧洲周边开始。


The enlargement of NATO and the EU has embraced a dozen or so states in Central and Eastern Europe and in the western Balkans.	北约和欧盟的扩张已经把中欧和东欧，以及巴尔干半岛西部12个左右的国家囊括在内。


But, despite these achievements, European integration is far from complete, and it will remain so until all European countries can follow the same development path.	但尽管取得了这些成就，欧洲一体化还远远没有完成，而这一过程将一直持续下去，直到欧洲所有国家都走上了相同的发展道路。


This failing was the key reason for the Balkan tragedy of the 1990’s.	事实上，未能达到一体化也是导致1990年代巴尔干半岛惨剧发生的主要原因。


Fortunately, the time for armed conflict in that region appears to have come to a definitive end, now that the Balkan states are on the path to NATO and EU membership.	幸运的是，既然巴尔干半岛国家要争取加入北约和欧盟，那么那一区域的武装冲突也就到了该结束的时候了。


But Eastern Europe, especially Ukraine and Moldova, also must be treated as a region of special importance.	但是东欧地区，尤其是乌克兰和摩尔多瓦两国，仍然要被视为特别重要的区域。


Ukraine’s population of 46 million means it is far too big and important to be left out of any vision of Europe’s future.	乌克兰拥有4600万人口，这意味着它庞大和重要地位使得任何关于欧洲未来的愿景都无法忽视之。


Yet the EU’s strategy towards Ukraine has been ambiguous and obscure.	然而，欧盟对乌克兰的战略却一直十分暧昧和模糊。


The Orange Revolution’s reform drive has been slowed or even halted by domestic political and economic crises, but also by the Union’s perceived indifference to Ukraine’s fate.	橙色革命的动力已经衰减甚至陷于停滞，��当然有国内的政治和经济危机的原因，但这在某方面也是由于欧盟对乌克兰命运的漠视所致。


EU leaders lament Ukraine’s political divisions and slow pace of reform, and the country’s leaders need to address these criticisms.	那些欧盟领导人往往哀叹与乌克兰的政治分歧和缓慢的改革步伐，而乌克兰领导人也需要对这些批评给予回应。


But lack of progress also reflects the EU’s failure to embrace Ukraine.	但这种在进程上的滞后同时也反映了欧盟在接纳乌克兰方面所遭受的挫败。


Reform of a country’s political and economic institutions and its accession to the EU and NATO usually go hand in hand, because the prospect of membership makes painful decisions electorally acceptable.	一个国家的国内政治经济制度改革与加入欧盟和北约通常都是相随而行的，因为选民们为了争取成员国资格往往愿意承受一些改革的阵痛。


In short, it is unrealistic of the EU to expect European outcomes from countries like Ukraine and Moldova without making a full commitment to them.	简单地说，在没有给予乌克兰和摩尔多瓦这样的国家以完全承诺之前，欧盟对它们导向欧洲的期望显然是不切实际的。


Fortunately, that approach is changing.	但幸运的是，这一做事方式正在发生变化。


The Gas Memorandum signed earlier this year between the EU and Ukraine on the extension and exploitation of Ukrainian gas pipelines is a perfect example; in return for political support and for funding of the extension of its pipelines, Ukraine has agreed to adopt EU rules governing management and access to the gas transmission line.	今年初，欧盟与乌克兰双方就乌境内天然气管道的扩展和开发所签订的天然气备忘录就是一个很好的例子。 作为政治支持和资助管道扩展的回报，乌克兰承诺采用欧盟准则来管理和利用其天然气传送管道。


Ukraine also agreed to implement the relevant EU energy directives as part of its membership of the European Energy Community.	而乌克兰还承诺执行欧盟相关的能源指令，并以此作为获取欧洲能源共同体成员国资格的一部分。


It is a first step towards Ukraine’s eventual full integration into the EU Single Market.	这也是乌克兰寻求最终融入欧盟单一市场所走出的第一步。


The EU’s current lack of unanimity on many world issues, as well as continental issues such as Ukraine, is no reason for despair.	至于欧盟当前在许多世界事务以及欧洲大陆事务如乌克兰问题上缺乏一致性，我们也无须为此感到绝望。


The trick for the Union is to develop shared solutions and to take joint foreign-policy actions, even when various EU governments see things differently.	对欧盟来说，关键是即使欧盟内部各政府对事物的看法各有不同，也要形成共同的解决方法，并执行联合的外交政策。


Forging Asia’s Missing Links	重新构建亚洲消失的链条


MANILA – China’s government has just announced that Premier Wen Jiabao will be the main speaker at the 2009 Boao Forum for Asia, where the roster of leaders expected to participate is a virtual Who’s Who of the continent: President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, President Faure Gnassingbe of Togo, Prime Minister S. Bayar of Mongolia, Prime Minister Thein Sein of Myanmar, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung of Vietnam, Prime Minister John Key of New Zealand, and Kopsak Saphawasu, Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand.	马尼拉——中国政府刚刚宣布中国总理温家宝将出席2009年度的亚洲博鳌论坛。 预计其他参会的亚洲各国领导人还包括：巴基斯坦总统阿西夫·阿里·扎尔达里，哈萨克斯坦总统努尔苏丹·纳扎尔巴耶夫，多哥总统福雷·纳辛贝，蒙古总理巴雅尔，缅甸总理登盛，越南总理总理阮晋勇，新西兰总理总理约翰·基和泰国副总理高萨。


Such meetings are vital for Asia, because the continent lacks the dense institutional infrastructure that Europe has built up over the past five decades.	由于亚洲没有欧洲那样，有着50年的联盟，此次会议就显得非常关键。


This year’s Boao Forum has become even more important because of the cancellation of the East Asia summit due to the action of violent protestors.	再加上泰国近期的暴力抗议事件，导致东亚领导人高峰会议无法进行，本年度的博鳌论坛就显得尤其重要。


Multinational companies increasingly treat Asia as a single economic space, at least as far as production is concerned.	从一般意义上来说，跨国公司将亚洲作为一个单一的经济体来看待，尤其从产品的角度来说。


This, of course, does not mean that Asia is, or is becoming, a single market, but rather that is now something of a tight-knit pan-national supply chain.	但这并不表明亚洲是一个单一市场，亚洲是一个国与国之间相互交错，以单个国家为单位的产品供应链。


But, although Asia is becoming more like Europe in terms of economic integration, political and diplomatic integration lags behind.	虽然在经济一体化方面，亚洲越来越接近于欧洲，但政治和外交的融合还远远不够。


So, because Asia lacks such institutional arrangements, personal diplomacy of the type that the Boao Forum represents, like the annual global winter gathering at Davos, remains vitally important.	因此，由于亚洲缺少机构的组织安排，相互之间的交流机会较少，博鳌论坛就显得尤其重要，就象每年冬季的达拉斯论坛那样。


Indeed, it was at last year’s Boao Forum that Chinese President Hu Jintao began to express public optimism about the positive trends in Mainland China-Taiwan relations.	实际上，在去年的博鳌论坛上，中国国家主席胡锦涛对中国大陆和台湾的关系向积极的方向发展表示了乐观。


That rapprochement was possible because Taiwan’s then newly elected vice president was given permission by China to attend the forum, where he was able to meet informally with President Hu.	台湾新当选的副总统也破例作为嘉宾参见了论坛，和胡锦涛进行了非正式的会谈。


Last February, I headed a 40-member trade delegation to Taipei.	今年二月，我率领着40个人商业代表团访问了台北。


That mission’s highlight was my dialogue with Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, who stressed the importance of connecting Taiwan to the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) in the light of warmer relations developing between the Mainland and Taiwan.	此行的目的是加强和台湾总统马英九的对话。 马英九表示台湾和中国东盟自由贸易区交流在海峡两岸关系中起着重要的作用。


At this time of economic turmoil around the world, increasing Taiwan’s formal economic links with China and its regional partners can only benefit everyone involved, because an inevitable side-effect will be a lessening of tension.	目前，世界经济正处于动荡之中，台湾和中国大陆及亚洲地区其他伙伴国之间的正式经济联系就显得更为重要，只有大家共同努力，才能将危机的损害降到最低。


Unfortunately, some analysts suggest that a Taiwan-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement of the likes of CAFTA may not yet be possible, so, in the interim, President Ma’s administration is striving to achieve separate free-trade agreements with various ASEAN members.	不幸的是，有些人士认为，不像中国东盟自由贸易区那样，台湾和东盟自由贸易区建立关系还不具备条件。 马英九政府也正在和单个的东盟国家之间建立关系。


Understandably, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has taken the stand that Taiwan should seek closer ties with ASEAN countries rather than depend too much on Mainland China, but Ma does not see the two efforts as being mutually exclusive.	可以理解的是，台湾的反对党民进党主张台湾应该拉近和东盟的关系，而不是依靠中国大陆。 但马英九并不认为两者是对立关系。


From a wider perspective, Ma and I exchanged views on the synergy of an emerging “Central East Asia Growth Polygon” (CEAGPOL) consisting of the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and the Mainland Chinese provinces of Guangdong and Fujian – plus, eventually, Hainan, Okinawa, and Guam/Marianas.	马英九和我在更为广泛的范围内交换了意见，例如“中东亚多边增长区”（CEAGPOL）的概念。 “中东亚多边增长区”包括菲律宾，台湾，香港，澳门，中国大陆的广东，福建，再加上海南，冲绳和关岛。


With goodwill on all sides, real advantages can materialize from building up this informal grouping, as it is a gateway to the huge markets of Southeast and Northeast Asia.	有了各方面的积极努力，此非正式的区域将会深受其益，从而作为进入东南亚和东北亚广大市场的门户。


An economic bonus of such an effort for the entire region would come from the opening of direct flights and sea transport across the Taiwan Strait.	随着中国大陆和台湾的空中直飞和海上直航，整个地区将会深受其益。


CEAGPOL could even become a building block for a Northeast Asian version of ASEAN – an “Association of Northeast Asian Nations.”	“中东亚多边增长区”甚至可能成为东南亚联盟的翻版，成为一个“东北亚联盟”。


As a result of historical suspicion between China, Japan, and Korea, Northeast Asia’s economic heavyweights are the world’s last remaining regional bloc that still lacks an inter-governmental organization of the likes of ASEAN.	由于中国，韩国和日本在历史上的恩怨，至今为止，东北亚经济强国之间依然还心怀芥蒂，成为世界上最后一个地区壁垒，政府之间的沟通不像东盟国家之间那样顺畅。


The European Union is even more instructive, because centuries of war, culminating in the two World Wars of the twentieth century, inspired, rather than deterred, European economic, political and security integration.	对于东北亚强国来说，欧盟应该是一个好的学习榜样，欧洲也是经过几个世纪的战争，特别是20世纪的两次世界大战，现在的欧盟在政治经济上反而越来越趋于一体化。


At this time of worldwide uncertainty, Asia-Pacific leaders must redouble their efforts to exploit their partnerships and strategic combinations in order to foster stability and growth. The easing of tensions between China and Taiwan can, perhaps, set a tone for all of Northeast Asia.	正值世界处于动荡时刻，亚太的领导人更应该加倍努力，加强相互之间的合作和战略整合关系，以增进区域间的稳定和增长。


At the 30th anniversary of the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan” last January, President Hu offered six proposals to improve relations:	今年一月，在“对台湾同胞书”发表三十年之际，胡锦涛主席提出了6点建议，具体如下：


1.	1.


Abandon the Taiwan independence movement;	放弃台湾独立运动；


2.	2.


Stop confrontation and reach peaceful agreements;	停止对立，达成和平协议；


3.	3.


Increase military contacts/exchanges;	增进双方的军事接触和交流；


4.	4.


Discuss Taiwan’s participation in international organizations under the “One China” umbrella;	在“一个中国”的前提下，商谈台湾加入国际组织的问题；


5.	5.


Establish a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA); and	建立广泛的经济合作协定；


6.	6.


Promote China’s traditional civilization with strengthened spiritual ties.	弘扬中华文化，加强精神纽带。


There is now real hope that talks along these lines can succeed.	如果遵循以上各点，两岸和谈成功的希望就比较大。


But there is a major obstacle to easing tensions: the proposed $6.5 billion sale by the United States to Taiwan of 30 Apache attack helicopters and 330 Patriot missiles.	但美国向台湾军售成为缓和紧张局势的一个主要的障碍，此次军售包括30架阿帕奇战斗机和330枚爱国者导弹，总价高达65亿美元。


China-US talks on defense cooperation had earlier stalled because of such arms negotiations.	后果是导致美中之间军事交流的中断。


They have since been restarted, an olive branch sent to the Obama administration by China’s government.	随着奥巴马新政府的上台，中国政府又向其伸出了橄榄枝。


All three parties involved will need to tread with care to make certain that the thaw in China-Taiwan relations is not set back by this proposed arms deal.	所有三方在美对台军售问题上都要保持克制，避免海峡两岸的关系重开倒车。


For, if Asia is to begin to build the type of dense institutional infrastructure that has brought Europe peace and prosperity, the flashpoint between China and Taiwan will need to be transformed into a foundation stone of regional cooperation.	如果亚洲也要达到欧洲那样的和平繁荣，中国大陆和台湾的合作关系将是未来区域稳定的成功保证。


Forging Syria’s Opposition	打造叙利亚的反对势力


TEL AVIV – Syria’s crisis is now a year old, with close to 10,000 people, mostly civilians, dead and no end in sight.	特拉维夫——叙利亚危机已经持续了一年之久，将近10，000人，多数是平民在这场危机中丧生——而且至今仍然看不到何时结束。


The country is at a stalemate: the opposition is unable to topple President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and Assad’s forces are unable to quash the resistance.	叙利亚国内已经陷入僵局：反对派无力推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德的政权，而阿萨德的部队也无法消灭反对派的势力。


Both sides are adamant: the opposition is determined to bring down a regime that it views as illegitimate, sectarian, corrupt, tyrannical, and stained with blood, while the regime’s hard-line core believes that by persevering it will ultimately silence the opposition, whereas any concession would jeopardize its very existence.	双方的立场都坚定不移：反对派决意推翻被其视为宗派主义、腐败、残暴、双手沾满鲜血的非法政府，而政府的强硬核心势力坚信只要坚定不移最终定能压倒反对派，而任何退让都可能危及自身的生存。


Its downfall, they believe, would mean dispossession and death for the regime’s leadership and for a large part of the minority Alawite community from which it is drawn.	他们认定如果政府倒台，领导人和处于少数地位的阿拉维教派就会丧失财产乃至生命。


Assad and his cohorts are encouraged by the world’s failure to respond effectively to their brutal suppression of the revolt in Homs, and have proceeded to inflict vicious punishment on its survivors as a warning to opponents elsewhere.	国际社会对残酷镇压霍姆斯起义不闻不问的态度助长了阿萨德及其同伙的气焰，他们继续残酷惩罚起义幸存者，以警告其他地方的反对派人士。


This may cow some of Syria’s civilian population in the short term, but it will serve only to exacerbate popular rage, and thus to increase the prospect of a bloody reckoning with Assad and his cronies down the line.	短期内这样做可以吓阻叙利亚的某些平民，但长远看只能加剧公众愤怒，进而增加未来要求阿萨德及其亲信血债血偿的可能性。


Today’s brutal stalemate is likely to continue for some time.	今天残酷的僵局可能会继续下去。


Diplomatic and humanitarian missions led by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and current UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos seem as ineffective as earlier efforts by the international community and the Arab League to mitigate the conflict or to facilitate a political solution.	由前联合国秘书长科菲·安南和负责人道主义事务的联合国现任副秘书长瓦莱丽·阿莫斯领导的外交和人道主义使团似乎并不比由国际社会和阿盟领导的早期缓解冲突或促进政治解决的外交努力更加成功。


To be sure, the authorities have suffered some defections, with the most significant coming soon after the violence in Homs reached its peak, when the deputy energy minister resigned and joined the opposition.	有些人无疑已经背叛了政府，其中最具影响力的当属霍姆斯暴行达到高潮后不久，能源部副部长辞职并加入到反对派阵营。


But, while defections have occurred among the officer corps as well, the regime has maintained its basic cohesiveness.	尽管军官团同样发生过背叛事件，但现政权仍然保持着最基本的凝聚力。


The army, the security apparatus, and the Alawite community are still solidly supportive.	军队、安全机构和阿拉维教派人士仍然坚定地支持政府。


A large part of the Syrian population – the middle class in Damascus and Aleppo, the Christians, and other minorities – are passive or sitting on the fence, worried that the alternative to the status quo is chaos, civil war, and possibly a radical Islamist takeover.	大马士革和阿勒颇的中产阶级、基督教徒和其他少数族裔等叙利亚大部分民众态度消极或摇摆不定，担心改变现状将会付出混乱、内战，甚至可能是极端伊斯兰势力全面占领的惨重代价。


And Russia and China continue to provide diplomatic cover, with Iran sending material support.	俄国和中国继续为叙利亚政府提供外交掩护，而伊朗则负责提供物质上的支持。


Life in Damascus, despite increasing shortages, seems almost normal.	虽然物资短缺越来越严重，但大马士革的生活似乎与正常生活差别甚微。


The regime’s foes, on the other hand, seem undeterred by the killings, continuing to stage protests across Syria.	另一方面，现政府的敌人似乎并未被屠杀所吓倒，继续在叙利亚全国举行抗议活动。


Armed opposition is spreading, albeit slowly.	武装对抗活动也在缓慢地扩大。


The Western countries, Turkey, and most of the Arab world are incensed by the brutal killing and destruction, and pressure to intervene and stiffen international sanctions is building.	西方国家、土耳其和多数阿拉伯国家被残酷的杀戮和破坏活动所激怒，干预并加强国际制裁的压力正在逐渐累积。


But regional and international pressure on Assad has been ineffective.	但对阿萨德施加的地区和国际压力都没有效果。


While the Arab League seemed to act decisively last November when it suspended Syria’s membership, the military-observer mission that it sent to Syria was a farce.	尽管阿盟去年11月暂停叙利亚成员资格时似乎异常果断，但它派往叙利亚的军事观察员团却不失为一场闹剧。


Turkey’s initiatives have lost steam, and the United States and its European allies are merely going through the diplomatic motions; in practice, their efforts imply little serious impact on the regime.	土耳其的计划已经没有动力可言，而美国及其欧洲盟国只是摆出一副外交姿态，其实他们的所作所为对叙利亚政权影响甚微。


America and the West claim that they cannot act significantly without a UN mandate, which Russia and China are denying them by vetoing anti-Syrian resolutions in the Security Council.	美国和西方国家称没有联合国授权他们无法采取行动，而联合国授权则被俄中两国在安理会否决反叙利亚决议时否决。


But the truth is that governments in Washington, London, Paris, and elsewhere could do much more without a Security Council resolution.	但实际情况是华盛顿、伦敦、巴黎和其他国家的政府即使没有安理会决议也可以做很多事。