Though second-quarter GDP growth was weak — the euro-zone average was only 0.3% year on year – third-quarter data are indicating a sustained economic pick-up in the second half of the year.	尽管第二季度的国内生产总值仍不尽如人意，欧元区年均增长率只有区区0. 3%，但第三季度的统计数据显示：下半年经济增长正在持续性地恢复，只是消费还略显疲软。


How will the ECB react to better economic news?	欧洲央行对经济的恢复又将做何反应？


Some on the Governing Council have grown uncomfortable that euro-zone interest rates have stayed so low, at 2%, for so long (more than two years).	监管理事会的某些成员已经对两年多来欧元区利率维持在2%的低水准颇有微辞。


True, there is no inflation problem in the short run, but the ECB’s monetary policy focuses on the medium term.	没错，短期内不会出现通货膨胀，但欧洲央行的货币政策更加关注中期的目标。


One particular worry is that euro-zone money supply is well above the ECB’s benchmark level, indicating an excess supply of liquidity.	人们所担心的问题之一是欧元区的货币供应远远高于欧洲央行所拟定的基准，这显示了清偿能力已经供过于求。


It is doubtful that the ECB would raise interest rates to curb excess liquidity so long as economic recovery remains in question.	只要经济复苏还是个未知数，欧洲央行就不一定会提高利率，来控制过剩的清偿能力。


Slow growth has silenced the monetarists on the ECB’s Governing Council. This will change, however, once the economic pick-up is confirmed.	缓慢的增长速度堵住了欧洲央行监管理事会货币专家们的幽幽众口，但只要经济复苏得到确认，所有这些情况都会有所改变。


Interest-rate hikes may be coming sooner rather than later, which is why Berlusconi and French President Jacques Chirac are talking up interest-rate cuts now.	利率飙升可能会来得更早，这也是贝卢斯科尼和法国总统雅克·希拉克现在就大力鼓吹降低利率的原因所在。


Meanwhile, in Germany, the elections this September may have surprising consequences for ECB monetary policy.	与此同时，德国今年9月举行的选举可能会对欧洲央行的货币政策产生令人惊异的影响。


Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrats’ candidate, is a reformer, holding out hope for Germany’s future – and that of Europe.	基督教民主党候选人安格拉·默尔克是一位改革者，他为德国，以及欧洲的未来带来了希望。


Unfortunately, Merkel’s campaign is off to a rocky start, and the recent entry of Oskar Lafontaine’s extreme left-wing party into the fray may necessitate the formation of a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.	不幸的是，默尔克的竞选从一开始就困难重重。 最近奥斯卡·拉方丹的极左翼党派加入竞争后，可能就必须建立基督教民主党和社会民主党的总体联盟。


This would be bad news for the German economy, which could delay possible ECB interest rate hikes.	这对德国经济是个坏消息，因为它可能延迟欧洲央行利率的迅速飙升。


Because the expected gridlock in parliament would make reforms less likely, companies might hold off on investment, while consumers would be more likely to keep their wallets closed, because official policy would be even less clear than it is now.	由于议会中业已存在的僵局会削弱改革的可能性，导致公司延缓投资，而消费者则更有可能合拢钱包，因为官方政策比现在还要更加捉摸不定。


On the other hand, a center-right coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats could spark the ECB into action.	另一方面，基督教民主党和自由民主党的中右翼联盟也可能会刺激欧洲央行采取行动。


This raises an interesting point.	这就提出了一个非常有趣的观点。


The public should be relieved if the ECB raises rates, because this would most likely signal that the long-awaited economic recovery is well under way, and that inflationary repercussions are being addressed.	欧洲央行提高利率会让公众感到如释重负，因为利率的提升可能意味着人们盼望已久的经济恢复已经开始，而通货膨胀的影响也正在得以解决。


A hike, in other words, would indicate that good things are happening.	换句话讲，升息意味着好的形势已经开端。


But the public often views interest-rate increases as negative events that increase unemployment and stifle growth.	但公众却常常把升息看作一项负面因素，认为它有可能导致失业增长、抑止经济发展。


Blame-game politicians like Berlusconi, who have failed to put bread on the table, their minions in the media, and Keynesian economic professors who don’t understand and misrepresent Keynes sustain this distorted view.	像贝卢斯科尼这样未能将面包摆上普通百姓的餐桌但却精于责备游戏的政客、他们在各大媒体的御用走狗和根本没有弄懂凯恩斯理论真谛的凯恩斯主义经济学家仍然紧紧抱着歪曲的观点不放。


Europe would be a lot better off if someone told the public the truth.	如果有人对公众说出真相，那么无疑会为欧洲的经济发展带来福音。


A Good Year for God	上帝的幸运年


LONDON – It’s been a better year for God.	伦敦——上帝在这一年运气不坏。


After withering literary assaults on the Almighty from the Oxford academic Richard Dawkins, the essayist Christopher Hitchens, and others, believers have hit back.	在挫败牛津大学学者理查德·道金斯、散文家克里斯托弗·希钦斯和其他人对万能的主发起的文学攻击后，上帝的信徒们开始反击。


Best of all has been The Case for God by the brilliant religion writer Karen Armstrong.	其中最出色的要数杰出的宗教作家凯伦·阿姆斯特朗的著作《上帝的旨意》。


More important still is the news that more people (certainly in Britain) are going to Christian churches of all denominations.	更重要的是新闻中报导英国有越来越多的人走进各教派基督教堂做礼拜。


Moreover, the Pope made a very successful visit to Britain in September.	此外，教皇9月对英国的访问非常成功。


We know already about heavy attendance at the country’s mosques.	当时英国教堂人满为患的盛况给我们留下深刻的记忆。


At this time of year, of course, many Christians who are not regular churchgoers attend the Nativity services.	当然每到一年中这个时候，很多平常不去教堂的基督徒也赶赴教堂参加圣诞仪式。


Carols, church bells, and mangers are still at the heart of mid-winter festivities, alongside the consumer binge.	赞美诗、教堂钟声和马槽依然是隆冬庆典的核心内容，此外还有消费者的狂热消费。


This year, however, the “big spend” in Europe may have been inhibited by the big winter freeze and the big austerity programs across most of the continent.	不过今年，欧洲的“狂欢购物”可能受到遍布欧洲大陆的冬季冰雪和大规模紧缩计划的抑制。


Even in the most Godless households, most children in Western societies probably know the details of the Christmas story.	即使在宗教信仰最弱的家庭，西方社会的多数儿童或许也知道圣诞故事的细节。


The travelers who can find no room at the inn.	人满为患的小旅馆。


The birth of a baby in the stables.	一名婴儿出生在马厩里。


The arrival of the wise men bearing gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh.	带着黄金、乳香和没药等礼物的智者。


We learn about all this at the same time as we are told about Father Christmas, his Lapland reindeers, and his sacks full of presents.	我们在听说圣诞老人、拉普兰驯鹿和装满礼物的包裹时就知道了这个故事。


We rapidly lose our belief in that winter myth.	我们很快就不再相信这个冬天的神话。


But we tend to retain into adulthood the same views of God that we formed in childhood.	但孩提时对上帝形成的印像却会一直保留到成年时期。


An old man with a long beard watches over us, and most of us retain a pretty literal opinion of the stories about his Son told in the Bible’s New Testament.	上帝是一直照看我们的长胡子老人，而且多数人对《圣经新约》中上帝之子的故事有着相当表面化的理解。


It is this God that atheists like Dawkins and Hitchens attack.	道金斯和希钦斯这样的无神论者所攻击的正是我们的上帝。


And, with such a target, it is not very difficult to poke holes and pile on the ridicule.	而且，面对这样一个目标，故意找茬加以嘲笑似乎并非难事。


Leave aside the fact that you can make an even stronger case against Godlessness – remember the atrocities of atheist totalitarians in the twentieth century – and consider the assault on those whose commitment to literal interpretations of religious texts means that they deny science and reason.	撇开可以大力反驳无神论的事实不谈（二十世纪无神论极权主义份子的暴行至今还让人记忆犹新），单说攻击字面解读宗教典籍者意味着他们否定科学和推理。


To them the world was made in six days; evolution is a fanciful tale.	在他们看来创世纪只需要六天，而生物进化不过是虚构的故事。


Those of us who think that science and religion dwell in different domains, and who recall that Socrates argued that science did not teach you about morality or meaning, find that our case is undermined by the literalists and fundamentalists in every religion.	认为科学和宗教分属于不同领域、并牢记苏格拉底“科学无法教会人道德和生命意义”教诲的我们渐渐发现，各种拘泥于字面解释的信徒和原教旨主义者破坏了我们的论据。


There are Christians who know all about the fire and brimstone of the Book of Revelation, but seem not to have heard the instructions about generosity in the Sermon on the Mount.	大量基督徒完全相信《启示录》中地域的硫磺与烈火，但却似乎从未听到过《山中圣训》中有关宽容大度的训诫。


Likewise, there are hard-line Jews, such as the settler groups who drive Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem and Hebron, who have forgotten the early teachings of Jewish scholars who argued that strangers should be treated like your own people.	同样，到处都是态度强硬的犹太人，比方说将巴勒斯坦人赶出东耶路撒冷和希伯伦家园的定居者团体，他们早就把犹太学者早期的训诫抛到了脑后，这些训诫要求犹太教信徒给予陌生人亲人般的待遇。


And there are Muslims who ignore the Koran’s commands of pluralism, tolerance, and peace.	还有很多穆斯林信徒对《古兰经》多元化、忍耐与和平的训诫完全无视。


Where the atheist assault is often correct is in pinpointing the amount of harm frequently done in our world by such fundamentalists.	无神论者攻击的正确之处在于经常能够指出此类原教旨主义者对世界所造成的危害。


Right-wing American attitudes about their country’s place in the world are invigorated by fundamentalist dogma.	原教旨主义教义鼓舞了右翼美国人有关自己国家国际地位的姿态。


The United Nations is the devil’s own creation.	联合国是魔鬼自身的创造。


President Barack Obama is an un-American Muslim.	巴拉克·奥巴马总统具有非美穆斯林身份。


Palestine from the Jordan River to the coast should be handed to Israel so that the world can end with a cataclysmic Christian triumph.	从约旦河到海岸线的巴勒斯坦领土应该交由以色列控制，这样世界就会以一场灾难性的基督教胜利结尾。


Jewish fundamentalists obstruct any peace process that is left in the Middle East and build more illegal settlements.	犹太原教旨主义者极力阻挠中东仅存的和平进程，继续建设非法定居点。


Islamic fundamentalists define jihad as a war of terror against the West and call for an Islamic caliphate from the Atlantic to the Pacific.	伊斯兰原教旨主义者将针对西方世界的恐怖主义定义为圣战，呼吁建立从大西洋到太平洋的伊斯兰王国。


The strident and damaging dogmatism of fundamentalists of every stripe has a common feature: a truculent sense of grievance, rooted in fear and resentment of modernity.	形形色色原教旨主义分子的教条既咄咄逼人又为祸不浅，它们都有着共同的特色： 那就是植根于对现代社会的恐惧和愤懑的气势汹汹的怨恨。


Christian fundamentalism in America harks back to nineteenth-century populism and anti-intellectualism.	美国的基督教原教旨主义可以追溯到十九世纪的民粹主义和反智主义。


Members of evangelical churches associate their beliefs with the rugged individualism of the early pioneers.	福音教会会员将自己的信仰与早期先驱不屈不挠的个人主义密切联系在一起。


They are contemptuous of the establishment.	他们蔑视当权人士。


Jewish fundamentalists believe that Israel’s critics are anti-Semitic or, in the case of Jewish opponents of Israel’s harder-line policies, “self-hating Jews.”	犹太原教旨主义者相信以色列的批评者要么是反犹份子，要么就是像以色列强硬政策的犹太反对者那样，是“自我仇恨的犹太人”。


Islamic fundamentalists reckon that what the rest of us regard as the liberalizing influence of technological progress and globalization is a brash re-run of Western colonialism.	以色列原教旨主义者认为我们其他人眼中技术进步和全球化的自由化影响反应出西方殖民主义不可一世的重新抬头。


For a happier New Year, we should listen to the core messages of all these great religions, above all the Confucian golden rule that we should never do to others what we would not like to be done to us.	要想在新的一年中生活得更加愉快，我们应当听取所有伟大宗教的核心教义，特别是儒家“己所不欲、勿施于人”的金科玉律。


What religion should teach us is not how to hate, but – to borrow again from Confucius – how to develop societies that look after and welcome the poor, the stranger, and the oppressed.	宗教教会我们的不该是仇恨，而是——再次借用孔子的名言——如何建设照顾欢迎穷人、外来者和被压迫者的大同社会。


That is the most important message for everyone, atheists included, to take from the Christian story of Christmas.	所有人，包括无神论者，都应该从基督的圣诞故事中领会这种最重要的精神涵义。


A Gravity Test for the Euro	欧元重力测试


CAMBRIDGE – Although I appreciate that exchange rates are never easy to explain or understand, I find today’s relatively robust value for the euro somewhat mysterious.	坎布里奇——尽管我赞同汇率问题很难解释或理解清楚，但仍然对眼下欧元相对稳健的价值感到有些不解。


Do the gnomes of currency markets seriously believe that the eurozone governments’ latest “comprehensive package” to save the euro will hold up for more than a few months?	难道货币市场真的相信，欧元区各国政府最新的欧元拯救“完整方案”能维持几个月？


The new plan relies on a questionable mix of dubious financial-engineering gimmicks and vague promises of modest Asian funding.	新计划颇不靠谱，它依赖于可疑金融工程伎俩和从亚洲适量融资的含糊承诺。


Even the best part of the plan, the proposed (but not really agreed) 50% haircut for private-sector holders of Greek sovereign debt, is not sufficient to stabilize that country’s profound debt and growth problems.	即便是该计划的最佳部分——即准备（但并未实际通过）让希腊主权债务的私人投资者损失50%——也不足以稳定希腊沉重的债务和增长问题。


So how is it that the euro is trading at a 40% premium to the US dollar, even as investors continue to view southern European government debt with great skepticism?	那么，既然投资者仍对南欧政府债务充满疑虑，为何欧元对美元仍有40%的溢价？


I can think of one very good reason why the euro needs to fall, and six not-so-convincing reasons why it should remain stable or appreciate.	在我看来，欧元必须下跌这一观点有一个非常充分的理由，而欧元应该维持稳定甚至升值有六个不那么令人信服的理由。


Let’s begin with why the euro needs to fall.	让我们从欧元为何必须下跌开始。


Absent a clear path to a much tighter fiscal and political union, which can lead only through constitutional change, the current halfway house of the euro system appears increasingly untenable.	在缺乏形成更紧密的财政和政治联盟的明确道路的背景下——这一点只有通过修宪才能实现——当前的欧元体系只是半吊子工程，且正在变得越来越难以为继。


It seems clear that the European Central Bank will be forced to buy far greater quantities of eurozone sovereign (junk) bonds.	显然，欧洲央行将被迫购买数量甚巨的欧元区主权（垃圾）债券。


That may work in the short term, but if sovereign default risks materialize – as my research with Carmen Reinhart suggests is likely – the ECB will in turn have to be recapitalized.	这样做在短期可能有效，但如果主权违约风险成为现实——根据我和卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）的研究，这很有可能——那么欧洲央行自身也将需要资本重组。


And, if the stronger northern eurozone countries are unwilling to digest this transfer – and political resistance runs high – the ECB may be forced to recapitalize itself through money creation.	此外，如果较稳健的北欧国家不愿意承担转移成本——政治阻力相当大——欧洲央行可能被迫用印钞来实现自身的资本重组。


Either way, the threat of a profound financial crisis is high.	无论如何，爆发深度金融危机的风险很高。


Given this, what arguments support the current value of the euro, or its further rise?	既然如此，支持欧元维持当前水平甚至有所升值的观点有哪些呢？


First, investors might be telling themselves that in the worst-case scenario, the northern European countries will effectively push out the weaker countries, creating a super-euro.	首先，投资者可能会告诉自己，在最坏情形下，北欧国家将抛弃疲软国家，创造新的超级欧元。


But, while this scenario has a certain ring of truth, surely any breakup would be highly traumatic, with the euro diving before its rump form recovered.	但是，尽管这一情景不能说完全没有可能，但欧元区的分崩离析将是高度灾难性的，欧元得先跌到底才能复苏。


Second, investors may be remembering that even though the dollar was at the epicenter of the 2008 financial panic, the consequences radiated so widely that, paradoxically, the dollar actually rose in value.	其次，投资者可能记得，在2008年的金融恐慌中，处于震中的美元由于恐慌影响覆盖面非常广，反而有所升值。


Although it may be difficult to connect the dots, it is perfectly possible that a huge euro crisis could have a snowball effect in the US and elsewhere.	尽管很难将当初的美元和现在欧元联系在一起，但巨型欧元危机仍大有可能在美国和其他地区造成连锁反应。


Perhaps the transmission mechanism would be through US banks, many of which remain vulnerable, owing to thin capitalization and huge portfolios of mortgages booked far above their market value.	或许传递机制会是美国银行——许多美国银行仍然十分脆弱，因为它们的资本充足率很低，手中的按揭组合簿记价值也远高于市场价值。


Third, foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds may be keen to keep buying up euros to hedge against risks to the US and their own economies.	第三，外国央行和主权财富基金可能乐于继续购买欧元，以对冲美元和自身经济的风险。


Government investors are not necessarily driven by the return-maximizing calculus that motivates private investors.	政府投资者与私人投资者不同，并不一定按最大回报的标准投资。


If foreign official demand is the real reason behind the euro’s strength, the risk is that foreign sovereign euro buyers will eventually flee, just as private investors would, only in a faster and more concentrated way.	如果外国官方需求才是欧元强势背后的真正原因，那么欧元所面临的风险就是外国主权买家的最终逃离——与私人投资者不会有什么两样，只是更快更集中。


Fourth, investors may believe that, ultimately, US risks are just as large as Europe’s.	第四，投资者可能会认为，说到底，美国的风险一点都不比欧洲小。


True, the US political system seems stymied in coming up with a plan to stabilize medium-term budget deficits.	确实如此，美国政治体系在达成稳定中期预算赤字计划方面受到了阻碍。


Whereas the US Congress’s “supercommittee,” charged with formulating a fiscal-consolidation package, will likely come up with a proposal, it is far from clear that either Republicans or Democrats will be willing to accept compromise in an election year.	尽管主管制定财政整合计划的美国国会“超级委员会”或许能够拿出一套���案，但共和党和民主党是否愿意在选举年妥协还远未可知。


Moreover, investors might be worried that the US Federal Reserve will weigh in with a third round of “quantitative easing,” which would further drive down the dollar.	此外，投资者还可能担心美联储会考虑实行第三轮“量化宽松”，这将进一步压低美元。


Fifth, the current value of the euro does not seem wildly out of line on a purchasing-power basis.  An exchange rate of $1.4:€1 is cheap for Germany’s export powerhouse, which could probably operate well even with a far stronger euro.	第五，欧元的当前值并未脱离购买力评价标准太远。 1欧元兑1.


For the eurozone’s southern periphery, however, today’s euro rate is very difficult to manage.	4美元的汇率对德国出口商来说很便宜，即使欧元出现大升值，它们也不会受到多大影响。


Whereas some German companies persuaded workers to accept wage cuts to help weather the financial crisis, wages across the southern periphery have been marching steadily upwards, even as productivity has remained stagnant.	但是，对欧元区南部外围国家来说，现在的欧元汇率是难以为继的。 一些德国公司说服员工接受减薪以助抵御金融危机，但南欧外围国家的工资一直在稳步上升，甚至在生产率停滞不前时也照涨不误。


But, because the overall value of the euro has to be a balance of the eurozone’s north and south, one can argue that 1.4 is within a reasonable range.	但是，由于欧元的整体价值必须平衡南欧和北欧，因此，可以说1. 4处于一个合理的区间内。


Finally, investors might just believe that the eurozone leaders’ latest plan will work, even though the last dozen plans have failed.	最后，投资者可能认为，尽管此前的诸多计划都以失败告终，但欧元区领导人的最新计划终将见效。


Abraham Lincoln is credited with saying “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”	林肯有句名言：“你可以一直欺骗一些人，可也以一度欺骗所有人，但你不可能一直欺骗所有人。


A comprehensive euro fix will surely arrive for some of the countries at some time, but not for all of the countries anytime soon.	”完整的欧元修复计划会在某个时候在某些国家出现，这是肯定的，但不可能一下子在所有国家出现。


So, yes, there are plenty of vaguely plausible reasons why the euro, despite its drawn-out crisis, has remained so firm against the dollar so far.	因此，你可以找出大把雄辩理由证明为何欧元尽管存在旷日持久的危机，但到目前为止仍然维持着对美元的坚挺。


But don’t count on a stable euro-dollar exchange rate – much less an even stronger euro – in the year ahead.	但展望明年，别指望欧元-美元汇率能保持稳定，至于欧元走强的可能性，那就更渺茫了。


A Green Alternative to Austerity?	一个紧缩的绿色替代项?


OXFORD – While austerity in Europe faces increasing social resistance, in principle it has the merit of simplicity.	发自牛津——虽然欧洲紧缩政策面临的社会阻力与日俱增，但至少该政策在原理上还具备简单直接的优点。


As the debate on fiscal consolidation versus growth intensifies, it is clear that there is little agreement on how to kick-start the economy, beyond fielding broad stimulus packages.	而随着巩固财政还是确保增长的辩论日趋激烈，显然除了实施大规模刺激政策之外，在如何启动经济方面并未形成多少共识。


One idea is that environmental technology might feed a virtuous cycle of innovation and employment.	一项理念随之产生，认为环保科技可以推动一个创新与就业的良性循环。


To some, green growth evokes a countryside covered with windmills and urban roofs lined with solar panels.	在某些人看来，绿色增长就意味着遍布乡村的风车以及城市屋顶上的太阳能电池板。


But it is broader than that.	但这其实只是冰山一角。


For example, when Airbus moved from injection molding to 3D printing to produce the metal hinges for its airplanes’ doors, it reduced their weight by half, yielding phenomenal savings in material and associated fuel consumption over a lifetime of flying those hinges around the world.	以空中客车公司生产的机舱门铰链为例，用三维喷射技术取代原有注射成型工艺可使铰链的重量减少一半，不但节省了大量生产材料，在这些铰链全球飞行的生命周期中也随之减少了许多燃料消耗。


Still, it is easier to find exciting anecdotes than it is to show how they scale up to revitalizing an entire economy.	但相对于演示这些技术如何扩大并使整个经济重焕生机，讲故事显然更加容易。


Moreover, there is a great diversity of narratives on the green economy – and their proliferation is likely to grow.	此外，对绿色经济的不同故事描述之间也大相径庭，而且这些分歧还有不断加大之势。


This June, thousands of activists, policymakers, and business people will converge on Rio de Janeiro for the third giant United Nations Sustainable Development Conference (Rio+20), whose theme is the green economy.	今年6月，数千名社会活动分子，政策制定者和商界人士都将齐聚里约热内卢，参加以绿色经济为主题的第三届联合国可持续发展会议（Rio+20）。


The conference will unleash new arguments about green jobs, growth, cost increases, cost reductions, changes in values, consumer choice – green this and green that.	该会议也将释放出一批关于绿色职位、增长、成本增加、成本削减，价值观转变和消费者选择的新论点——什么都离不开绿色。


As a co-author of A New Growth Path for Europe, a report commissioned by the German government, I am guilty of contributing to this cacophony of complementary perspectives on green growth.	作为德国政府主持撰写的报告《一条欧洲新增长路径》的合著者，笔者很抱歉在本已众说纷纭而又互为补充的绿色增长前景预测方面又增添了一把声音。


The European Climate Foundation had already published its Roadmap 2050, A Practical Guide to a Prosperous, Low-Carbon Europe.	欧洲气候基金会已经发表了《2050路线图，一个实现繁荣低碳欧洲的实用指南》。 自那以后，联合国环境计划发布了其《绿色经济报告》；


Since then, the UN Environment Program has released its Green Economy Report; McKinsey has written about the Resource Revolution; and the International Trade Unions Council has published Growing Green and Decent Jobs – to name but a few.	麦肯锡撰写了《资源革命》； 国际贸易联盟委员会也发表了名为《增加绿色且体面的工作》的报告。


All take somewhat different approaches and offer different recommendations, making it hard for policymakers to see the forest through the trees.	上述所有报告都采取了某种不同的研究路径并提出了各式各样的建议，也令政策制定者们如坠五里雾中。


And, at the root of this multiplicity of perspectives lays the fact that economics struggles to explain how growth and innovation move an economy as a whole.	而这些预测之所以五花八门，根源就在于经济学也无法完美解释增长和创新是如何令一个经济整体向前推进的。


The macroeconomic models on which policymakers depend are solid tools in times of smooth and incremental evolution, but green growth is not about gradual change.	在平稳且渐进式发展的时代，宏观经济模型是政策制定者们的可靠工具，但绿色增长却不属于渐进式变革的范畴。


For example, the European Union’s goal of achieving an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 implies a complete overhaul of EU infrastructure in just a few decades.	举个例子，欧盟在2050年实现温室气体减排80%的目标必然意味着在未来短短几十年内对联盟境内各类基础设施进行全面升级改造。


Economists’ inability to model such rapid, radical change should not be taken as a condemnation of the discipline; it is simply a reflection of the state of our knowledge, and of the fact that the economy is really, really complicated.	即便经济学家无法为这种迅速且激进的变革构建出模型，他们也不应该受到谴责，因为这只不过反映了我们当前的知识水平，以及经济学真的非常、非常复杂的现实。


We simply do not yet have sufficiently precise insights into how all of its elements interact during times of far-reaching change, whether it be a financial crisis or a growth spurt.	我们只不过尚未具备足够的深刻洞察力去理解在一场遥远的变革——不管是一场金融危机还是爆发式增长——中所有的因素将如何互动。


Yet, the studies of green growth mentioned above all appear to provide such explanations.	但上述提及的所有关于绿色增长的研究似乎都提供了这类解释。


So, what do they really tell us?	那么他们究竟告诉了我们些什么？


In practice, each is limited to just one or two aspects of the economy, and describes how these interact.	但实际操作中，每一项研究都仅仅局限于经济中的一个或两个方面，并对它们的互动方式进行了解释。


Growing Green and Decent Jobs looks at the relationship between investment and jobs.	《增加绿色且体面的工作》研究了投资与就业之间的关系。


A New Growth Path for Europe examines the impact of expectations and learning-by-doing.	《一条欧洲新增长路径》解释了预期以及边干边学所产生的影响。


Roadmap 2050 focuses on greening the power system.	《2050路线图》则把目光集中在能源系统的绿色化之上。


The authors then make a leap of faith to derive conclusions about the economy as a whole.	随后各报告的作者们都对作为一个整体的经济下了一个大胆的结论。


But, while the value of these studies is in the light that they shed on the parts, the ensuing headlines invariably are about the whole, articulated in terms of GDP and jobs.	但当这些研究的价值体现在对各部分的解释之上时，随后的核心却总是关于整体，而整体则是用GDP和就业来进行衡量的。


Each of the studies describes a part of a green economy, but none can capture the whole – not because they are deficient, but because it is simply beyond our capability.	每一项研究都解释了绿色经济的一部份，没有一个能涵盖整体——这不是因为这些研究有缺陷，只不过因为这件事已经完全超出了我们的能力之外。


That said, the fact that one cannot prove conclusively how green growth would work does not mean that we should give up on the idea.	这说明，虽然人们尚未可以确凿证明绿色增长是有效的，但也不意味着我们应当放弃这个理念。


We know from history that waves of innovation, from the steam engine to the information and communications revolution, have led to dramatic increases in economic growth.	我们都从历史上中看到过那些革新的浪潮，从蒸汽引擎到信息与通信革命，都引发了激动人心的经济增长。


We cannot prove that a wave of environmental innovation will have a similar effect, but the studies of the parts make such an outcome highly plausible.	我们无法证明一股环境革新的浪潮会产生类似的效应，但针对不同部分的研究使得这样一个结果更有说服力。


As humans, we are uniquely equipped to make decisions on the basis of ambiguous information – in fact, we do it all the time.	作为人类，我们都拥有依据模糊信息做出决定的独特能力——事实上我们无时无刻都在这样做。


When we choose a career or a spouse in our private lives, or when a politician seizes an opportunity from a plethora of possibilities, the task at hand is always about making highly consequential decisions based on imperfect information.	当我们选择一项事业或者配偶，或是一个政治家从一堆可能性中抓住一个机会的时候，当务之急往往都是基于不完整的信息来做出可能引发连串后果的决定。


A big pile of green-growth reports demonstrates the plausibility of this path to recovery from an historic economic crisis.	一大叠绿色发展报告都展示了这条把全世界从一个历史性的经济危机中实现复苏的路径的说服力。


It is now up to us to realize its potential.	而如今也是我们将其潜力变成现实的时候了。


Green growth offers a realistic alternative to the faltering austerity approach to overcoming the current economic crisis.	相对于当前步履蹒跚的经济危机紧缩应对政策，绿色增长提供了一个现实的替代选项。


Policymakers should incorporate this thinking into the “beyond austerity” narrative that is taking shape in a growing number of key EU member states.	而政策制定者们也应当把这一理念合并到当前在各欧盟主要成员国中日渐成形的“超越紧缩”述事中去。


Supporters of free markets will argue that if local landowners wish to sell their land, that is their choice to make. 	自由市场的支持者会说，如果当地地主愿意出售他们的土地，那么这就是他们的自主选择。


How to Feed the World	如何养活世界


PRAGUE – Hunger has wracked humanity since time immemorial.	布拉格—从远古时代开始，饥饿一直困扰着人类。


Nearly every major society has been shaped by famine; one estimate suggests that China suffered drought or flood-induced starvation in at least one province almost every year from 108 BC to 1911.	几乎所有主要社会都受到饥荒影响； 有人估算，从公元前108年到公园1911年间，每一年中国都至少有一个省出现旱灾或洪灾导致饥荒的情况。


Yet the struggle against hunger is a battle that humanity could finally win.	但与饥饿的斗争是一场人类最终能够取得胜利的斗争。


More cereals were produced annually in the last quarter of the twentieth century than in any preceding period, and more grain will be harvested this year than at any time in history.	二十世纪最后四分之一的谷物年产量要比此前任何一个时期都要高，而今年的谷物产量更是要高于历史上任何一年。


Since 1992, the number of hungry people worldwide has plummeted by more than 200 million, even as the human population grew by nearly two billion.	自1992年以来，全球饥民数量减少了两亿多，尽管人口数量增加了近二十亿。


But enormous challenges remain.	但仍有诸多挑战。


Affordable, nutritious food is one of people’s top priorities everywhere, and one in nine people still do not get enough food to be healthy.	平价营养食物是所有人类最要紧的事，而有九分之一的人类仍然无法获得足够的食物保持健康。


With today’s population of 7.3 billion expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, food demand will increase accordingly.	今天的73亿人口预计到2030年将变为85亿，到2050年将变为97亿，食物需求也将相应增长。


Along with more mouths to feed, stresses on food supplies will include conflicts, economic volatility, extreme weather events, and climate change.	随着有更多的肚子需要填饱，食物供给的压力将来自冲突、经济动荡、极端天气事件、气候变化等。


Increases in agricultural productivity, owing to improvements in seeds, new fertilizers and pesticides, improved credit access, and technological breakthroughs, have been a key driver in reducing hunger.	拜种子改良、新化肥和杀虫剂、信用渠道畅通化以及技术突破所赐，农业生产率获得了极大的提高，并成为减少饥饿的主要推动力量。


Between 1930 and 2000, agricultural output in the United States quadrupled, with productivity growth outstripping that of manufacturing.	从1930年到2000年，美国农业产出翻了两番，农业生产率增长比制造业更快。


Developing countries have begun sharing in these gains: responsible for next-to-none of the world’s fertilizer consumption in 1960, by 2000 they used more than industrialized countries.	发展中国家也开始分享这些收益：1960年，它们的化肥消费占比可以忽略不计，到2000年，它们的化肥使用量已经超过了工业化国家。


The World Bank has found that productivity growth in agriculture can be up to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth from other sectors.	世界银行发现，农业生产率增长���减少贫困的作用是其他部门生产率增长的四倍。


So how do we keep up this progress?	那么，我们如何保持这一势头？


Investment in research and development is vital.	研究和开发投资至关重要。


According to research conducted for Copenhagen Consensus, which I direct, investing an extra $88 billion in agricultural R&D over the next 15 years would increase yields by an additional 0.4 percentage points each year, which could save 79 million people from hunger and prevent five million cases of child malnourishment.	据由我领导的哥本哈根共识中心所做的研究，未来十五年在农业研发上增加880亿美元投资每年能够多提高0. 4个百分点的产量增长，让7,900万人摆脱贫困，让五百万儿童免于营养不良。


Achieving these targets would be worth nearly $3 trillion in social good, implying an enormous return of $34 for every dollar spent.	实现这些目标相当于实现3万亿美元的社会公益，即每一美元支出带来34美元的巨额回报。


Scientific breakthroughs also play a key role in fighting specific nutritional challenges such as vitamin A deficiency, the leading cause of preventable childhood blindness.	科学突破也在战胜具体的营养挑战方面起着关键作用，比如维生素A缺乏症，它是引起可预防儿童失明的主要原因。


Robert Mwanga was awarded this year’s World Food Prize for inspiring work that resulted in the large-scale replacement of white sweet potato (with scant Vitamin A content) by a vitamin A-rich alternative in the diets of Uganda’s rural poor.	罗伯特·姆万加（Robert Mwanga）因为在用富含维生素A的品种大量替换乌干达农村穷人日常实用的甘白薯（维生素A含量很低）方面所取得的鼓舞人心的工作而被授予世界粮食奖。


Another way to increase agricultural productivity is through labor.	另一个增加农业生产率的方法是通过劳动力。


When Copenhagen Consensus researchers examined responses to global warming in Bangladesh, they found that increasing agricultural labor productivity “is the only way to increase the resilience of Bangladesh to climate change and to meet long-term development goals.”	哥本哈根共识中心研究者在考察孟加拉国应对全球变暖的方法时发现，增加农业劳动力生产率“是加强孟加拉国面对气候变化的恢复力、实现长期发展目标的唯一方法。


Investing around $9,000 per worker over two decades could boost agricultural productivity by 10%.	”在二十年的时间里对每位工人投资大约9,000美元能够让农业生产率提高10%。


Bangladesh is an instructive case, because it is susceptible to flooding and the effects of climate change, and its agricultural productivity lags behind other developing and middle-income countries.	孟加拉国的例子很有说明意义，因为它极易受到洪水和气候变化影响，而其农业生产率也落后于其他发展中和中等收入国家。


Unsurprisingly, the Bangladeshi prime minister’s office is striving to lead in global innovation, sustaining an agriculture innovation lab that shares best practices and ideas.	毫不奇怪，孟加拉国总理办公室正致力于引领全球创新，建立了一座共享最佳实践和思想的农业创新实验室。


Copenhagen Consensus has worked with the world’s largest NGO, BRAC, to find out the policy wishes of people living in rural Bangladesh, including the “ultra-poor” with whom BRAC works closely.	哥本哈根共识中心与全球最大的非政府组织BRAC合作了解孟加拉国农村地区人口——包括BRAC共组人员与之近距离共事的“极端贫困”人口——想要什么政策。 这些劳动者、家庭主妇和其他人员每天的生活费不超过0.


These laborers, housewives, and others, some of whom live on the equivalent of $0.60-0.70 or less a day, are seldom given a place at the table to discuss policy.	6—0. 7美元，他们的声音很少在政策讨论拥有一席之地。


Across nine rural forums in far-flung parts of the country, the participants overwhelmingly spoke with one voice, calling for the same policy priority: increased agricultural productivity.	在孟加拉国偏远地区的九个论坛上，参与者一边倒地发出一个声音，提出了同一个政策重点要求：提高农业生产率。


“Everyone knows Rangpur has a Monga problem,” said a local from Chandpara in the Rangpur division, using the Bengali term for the annual cyclical phenomenon of seasonal hunger.	“众所周知，朗布尔（Rangpur）地区存在孟加（monga）问题”，朗布尔省钱德帕拉（Chandpara）的一位当地人如是说，“孟加”是孟加拉语，指年复一年发生的季节性饥饿现象。


“We cannot feed our people two times a day – we need to increase our agricultural productivity.”	“我们的人一天吃不上两顿饭——我们需要提高农业生产率。 ”


A Mukimabad villager had the same vision for Bangladesh: “We need crops and seeds which are not vulnerable to salinity and flood so that we do not have to die from food shortages.”	一位木吉玛巴德（Mukimabad）村民持有同样观点：“我们需要抗盐碱和洪水的庄稼和种子，这样我们才不会死于食物短缺。 ”


Humanity’s fight against hunger can be won.	人类可以打赢与饥饿的战争。


Great progress has been made, but the world needs more agricultural R&D and higher productivity.	人类已经取得了巨大的进步，但世界需要更多农业研发和更高的生产率。


As a rural villager from Deukhola, near the Brahmaputra River in remote northern Bangladesh, starkly put it: “Our survival depends on it.”	孟加拉国北部偏远地区布拉马普特拉河附近的德克霍拉（Deukhola）的一位农民尖锐地指出，“我们的生存就系于此。


We would do well to listen.	”聆听能让我们做得更好。


An Arab Marshall Plan	阿拉伯马歇尔计划


OXFORD – The wave of revolts that swept across the Arab world two years ago were fueled by demands for freedom, bread, and social justice.	牛津—两年前席卷阿拉伯世界的革命风潮的推动力来自自由、面包和社会公正的要求。


But, although the revolutions toppled dictators and transformed societies, these core objectives remain as distant as ever.	但是，尽管革命颠覆了独裁者、改变了社会，但这些核心目标扔像从前一样遥远。


In fact, the economic challenges facing the Arab Spring countries have become even more pressing, weighing heavily on these countries’ political prospects.	事实上，阿拉伯之春国家面临的经济挑战甚至变得更加紧迫了，严重地影响着这些国家的政治前景。


Unemployment has nearly doubled in Tunisia and Egypt, and foreign direct investment has dried up across the Arab world.	突尼斯和埃及的失业率几近翻番，整个阿拉伯世界的外国直接投资几乎枯竭。


Tourism revenues, while resilient, are declining, and fiscal challenges remain considerable.	旅游收入随虽然坚挺，但也在下降，财政挑战也依然严峻。


But the economic urgency is not reflected in the policy response, which has been painfully slow or non-existent.	但经济紧迫性并未反映在缓慢（如果不是没有的话）的政策反应中。


For example, Egypt’s fiscal deficit will exceed 11% of GDP this year.	比如，埃及今年的财政赤字将超过GDP的11%。


But the country’s leaders have been stalling on the terms of a much-needed International Monetary Fund loan.	但该国领导人还在急需的IMF贷款条件上扯皮。


The government’s reduction of fuel subsidies last year was not followed by additional reforms, and the required tax increase was delayed soon after President Mohamed Morsi announced it.	政府在去年削减了燃料补贴，但并未增加进一步的改革，总统穆尔西在宣布实施必要的增税后马上把这一措施推迟了。


Almost all political stakeholders in Egypt, as in the other Arab countries in transition, recognize the need for economic reform.	埃及几乎所有的政治相关利益者（其他阿拉伯过渡国家也一样）都知道经济改革的必要性。


But neither citizens nor policymakers appear willing to bear its social and political costs.	但人民和决策者都不希望承担改革的社会和政治成本。


In a charged and uncertain political climate, in which new crises erupt on a daily basis, it is unsurprising that economic reform has been postponed repeatedly.	在敏感而不确定的政治气候下——几乎天天爆发新危机——经济改革一再中止并不令人奇怪。


Politicians know that macroeconomic stabilization and social cohesion can be irreconcilable in the short run.	政客们明白，宏观经济稳定和社会团结在短期是不可调和的。


Slashing food and energy subsidies in order to reduce fiscal strain is unlikely to win favor in a country like Egypt, where 40% of per capita income is allocated to food.	削减食品和能源补贴以降低财政负担不可能让你在埃及赢得支持，因为埃及人均收入的四成用于食品。


Politics is thus constraining efforts to strengthen public finances.	因此，政治成了加强财政健康的约束。


At the same time, narrow IMF prescriptions threaten to exacerbate political instability, with citizens no longer afraid to take to the streets to demonstrate their dissatisfaction.	与此同时，狭隘的IMF药方有放大政治动荡的可能，人民已不再惮于走上街头表达自己的不满。


The current impasse on economic reform highlights a larger point: subsidy and tax regimes cannot be reformed without first redefining the underlying social contract, which has long exchanged welfare distribution for political acquiescence.	近期的经济改革僵局凸显出一个更大的问题：欲改革补贴和税收制度，必先重新规定社会契约。 长期以来，社会契约的内容是用财富分配换取政治顺从。


But such a move is far too risky for an individual politician, or even a single country, at a time of economic uncertainty and high unemployment.	但是，在经济不确定性和失业高企的时期，这样一场运动对政治家个人甚至个别国家来说风险太大。


In order to create the political space needed for economic reform, Arab leaders must underwrite a regional growth pact – a Marshall Plan of sorts – that would facilitate major new investments aimed at reviving economic activity.	为了创造经济改革所需要的政治空间，阿拉伯领导人必须抛出地区增长契约——类似于马歇尔计划——以刺激旨在重振经济活动的投资。


It is much easier to reform subsidy programs when the economy is expanding.	一旦经济开始扩张，改革补贴计划就会容易得多。


Moreover, building competitive markets is essential to ensuring sustainable GDP growth.	此外，建设竞争市场是确保可持续GDP增长的关键。


To this end, regional trade barriers, which are more pervasive in the Arab world than even in Sub-Saharan Africa, must be dismantled.	在这方面，地区贸易壁垒——阿拉伯世界的这个问题甚至比撒哈拉以南非洲还要普遍——必须打破。


By agreeing to the pact, Arab countries would commit to reforming their subsidy systems and to reducing restrictions on cross-border economic exchange.	通过同意这一契约，阿拉伯国家将能致力于改革补贴制度、减少跨国经济往来限制。


The regional dimension of prosperity has long been ignored in the Arab world.	繁荣的地区维度在阿拉伯世界长期受到忽视。


But weak regional linkages limit small firms’ growth potential, forcing them to depend on state patronage.	但微弱的地区联系局限了小企业的增长潜力，迫使它们依赖国家支持。


Although Arab leaders often cite Turkey as a beacon of hope, they rarely acknowledge that the country’s recent transformation from the “sick man of Europe” to one of the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets would not have been possible had it not pursued regional synergies.	尽管阿拉伯领导人经常把土耳其当做希望的灯塔，但他们很少承认，如果不追求地区协同效应，土耳其当前从“欧洲病夫”向世界增长最快的新兴市场的转型根本不可能实现。


Such linkages are particularly important for Egypt and Tunisia, which will struggle to reduce unemployment unless Libya’s labor market – which has historically absorbed migrants from its North African neighbors – is reopened.	这一联系对埃及和突尼斯尤其重要，除非利比亚劳动力市场重新开放——传统上，利比亚吸收着来自北非诸邻国的移民——否则埃及和突尼斯很难降低失业率。


And, while Tunisia’s situation seems to be the most promising, a crippling investment shortfall is threatening to derail reform efforts there.	而尽管突尼斯的状况似乎最为乐观，但要命的投资短缺有可能使改革夭折。


With Europe mired in crisis, capital flows from Tunisia’s resource-rich Arab neighbors are its best hope.	在欧洲饱受危机折磨的前提下，来自资源丰富的阿拉伯邻国的资本流入是突尼斯最大的希望。


Furthermore, Arab countries must ratchet up development spending.	除此之外，阿拉伯国家必须逐渐增加发展支出。


Given that existing development banks in the region have largely failed to act as vehicles of coordination and commitment, a new institution – resembling the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – would have to be established to oversee a regional aid push and underwrite the costs of economic transition.	该地区现有开发银行作为协调和委托实体大体上可以说是失败的，因此需要建立模仿欧洲复兴开发银行的新机构来管理地区援助，比如承销经济转型的成本。


New investment vehicles, such as sovereign wealth funds and Islamic finance, can contribute financing to credit-starved firms.	新投资实体，比如主权财富基金和伊斯兰金融也可以帮助信用饥渴的企业融资。


At the same time, Arab countries must streamline current aid efforts.	与此同时，阿拉伯国家必须让当前援助措施合理化。


For too long, Arab governments have simply thrown money at problems, with the rich Gulf countries effectively subsidizing their troubled neighbors’ public services.	长期以来，阿拉伯国家政府总是把钱浪费在问题上，富有的波斯湾国家实际上补贴着它们陷入麻烦的邻国的公共服务。


Over the last two years, Saudi Arabia has provided more than $3 billion to Yemen.	过去两年来，沙特向也门提供了30多亿美元。


Qatar has provided  $5 billion to Egypt since 2011, with a promise of $3 billion more.	卡塔尔自2011年以来向埃及提供了50亿美元，并承诺还将提供30亿美元。


And the United Arab Emirates recently pledged $2.5 billion to Bahrain.	阿联酋最近也承诺向巴林提供25亿美元。


But unconditional aid only delays reforms, because it weakens budget constraints, which reduces pressure on policymakers and creates moral hazard.	但无条件的援助只能拖延干戈，因为这削弱了预算约束，从而减轻了决策者的压力，创造了道德风险。


The Arab Spring has exposed fault lines that run not just through individual countries, but also through the entire region.	阿拉伯之春暴露了不仅存在于个体国家之间、也存在于整个地区的断层线。


This calls for redefining relationships not only between citizens and states, but also among Arab countries.	这不但需要重新定义人民和国家间关系，也需要重新定义阿拉伯国家之间的关系。


Above all, it is no longer prudent to divide Arab countries between donors and recipients, or between resource-rich and resource-poor countries.	最重要的是，将阿拉伯国家分为赞助过和受赞助国或资源富裕国和资源贫乏国已不再合适。


It is in the interest of the entire region – including those countries that do not seem to face an imminent threat of revolt – to contribute to their neighbors’ economic revival and facilitate their political transitions.	协助邻国经济复兴、刺激政治过渡是整个地区的利益所在——包括并不面临迫切革命威胁的国家。


A History Lesson for Koizumi	给小泉的一堂历史课


Once again, protests against Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s annual visit to the Yasukuni shrine are breaking out in China as well as South Korea.	中国和韩国又一次爆发了反对日本首相小泉纯一郎一年一度参拜靖国神社的抗议活动。


Koizumi’s insistence on paying homage to the war dead interred at Yasukuni, where convicted war criminals from World War II are among the buried, has been damaging relations with Japan’s neighbors for years.	小泉坚持拜祭埋葬有二战战犯的靖国神社，多年来一直损害着日本与邻国的关系。


Indeed, Chinese President Hu Jintao continually affirms that he will not hold a summit with a Japanese prime minister who goes to Yasukuni, which most Chinese regard as a glorification of past Japanese aggression and colonialism.	实际上，中国主席胡锦涛一直声称不与参拜靖国神社的日本首相举行首脑会谈。 大部分中国人认为参拜是美化日本过去侵略和殖民历史。


Even some in Japan are becoming critical of Koizumi.	甚至日本一些人也开始对小泉持批评意见。


While the public remains negative about Chinese outbursts against Japan, a recent survey indicates that more than 70% of Japanese view the current state of Japan-China relations as unacceptable.	虽然公众仍旧觉得中国人对日本爆发愤怒不可理喻，但是最近一项调查显示70%多的日本人认为日中关系当前的这种状态不可接受。


More people are not supporting Koizumi’s annual pilgrimage to Yasukuni, with seven former prime ministers jointly demanding that he refrain from the visits.	更多的人不支持小泉每年参拜靖国神社，七位前首相联合要求他放弃参拜。


Yet Koizumi remains defiant.	然而小泉却一意孤行。


Moreover, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzu Abe, the front-runner to succeed him, has openly declared that he will continue to visit the shrine as prime minister.	而且，最有可能接任他的内阁官房长官安倍晋三已经公开宣布他担任首相后将继续参拜靖国神社。


Foreign Minister Taro Aso, another possible successor to Koizumi, has called for the Japanese Emperor to pray at Yasukuni.	另一个可能接替小泉的人，外相麻生太郎呼吁日本天皇去参拜靖国神社。


So pessimism appears to be settling in, and the deadlock over Yasukuni appears to be deepening.	尽管局势似乎如此悲观，靖国神社僵局似乎正在加深。


But the past can bring us more than just troubles of this kind.	但是历史不仅仅能够给我们带来现在这种困境。


Even on the issue of Yasukuni, there are positive lessons to be learned.	甚至是在靖国神社问题上，也有积极的经验可供我们学习。


Consider Yasuhiro Nakasone, Koizumi’s predecessor in the 1980’s.	想一想小泉20世纪80年代的前辈中曾根康弘首相吧。


Both are master politicians who remained popular and served long terms in office.	两人都是精明的政治家，一直很受欢迎，执政时间也很长。


Both are conservative and nationalistic, advocating the revision of the constitution and an assertive political and military role for Japan abroad.	两人都是保守派，信奉民族主义，鼓吹修改宪法和日本在海外发挥更大的政治和军事作用。


Finally, both are pro-American, with Nakasone declaring Japan to be America’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in East Asia and Koizumi sending troops to Iraq in support of the United States-led war effort.	最后，两人都亲美，中曾根康弘宣布日本是美国在东亚“不沉的航空母舰”，小泉则向伊拉克派兵支持美国为首的战争行动。


But a crucial difference between Nakasone and Koizumi is often overlooked: their handling of the Yasukuni controversy and relations with China.	但是中曾与小泉之间一个重要的差别却常常被忽视,那就是他们处理靖国神社争议和对中关系的方法。


Nakasone broke the taboo by being the first prime minister to worship at the Yasukuni shrine in his official capacity on August 15, 1985, the fortieth anniversary of the end of World War II.	1985年8月15日、第二次世界大战结束40周年纪念日那天，中曾根康弘打破禁忌成为了第一位在职期间参拜靖国神社的首相。


The decision triggered a severe response from China, where students held demonstrations against his visit.	这个决定激起了中国强烈的反应，学生对他的参拜举行示威游行。


Bilateral relations were frozen.	双边关系被冻结。


But, instead of capitalizing on domestic resentment over China’s criticisms, Nakasone decided not to visit Yasukuni again.	但是，中曾根康弘没有利用国内对中国批评的不满，而是决定不再参拜靖国神社。


He chose to mend relations with China by focusing on the positive aspects of bilateral ties.	他选择修复与中国的关系，重点关注双边联系中积极的方面。


In 1986, Nakasone went to Beijing at the personal invitation of Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Hu Yaobang and laid the cornerstone for a Sino-Japanese Youth Exchange Center, promising to forge future friendships with China.	1986年，中曾根康弘应中共总书记胡耀邦的个人邀请访问北京，参加了中日青年交流中心的奠基活动，承诺培育与中国面向未来的友好关系。


This genuine embrace of reconciliation provided much-needed support to Chinese leaders, who were eager to control anti-Japanese sentiments.	这种真诚的拥抱和解为中国领导人提供了急需的支持，他们正急于控制国内的反日情绪。


Hu praised Nakasone’s courage and warned Chinese youth publicly that if they “think merely of the well-being of their own country… they are not sober-minded patriots.”	胡耀邦赞扬了中曾根康弘的勇气并公开警告中国年轻人如果他们“只考虑自己国家的利益，就不是头脑冷静的爱国者。 ”


Nakasone emerged from the crisis and was recognized as a capable statesman in managing Japan’s diplomacy with China.	中曾根康弘成功地摆脱了这场危机，作为一位政治家，被认为善于处理日本与中国的外交关系。


There was no accusation that Nakasone was “selling out” to Beijing.	没有人指责中曾为了北京而“出卖国家”。


Nor were his conservative, nationalist, and pro-American credentials damaged.	他的保守主义、民族主义和亲美倾向的政治形象也没有受到损害。


This episode suggests that Koizumi’s hardline position isn’t the only option.	这段插曲表明小泉的强硬立场并不是唯一的选择。


A Japanese prime minister can be strong without exploiting domestic resentment against the country’s neighbors, and conservative, patriotic, and pro-American while forging a healthy working relationship with China.	日本首相可以是强势首相而不必利用国内对邻国的不满情绪； 可以在培育正常运转的对中关系的同时保持保守、爱国和亲美的立场。


Indeed, the cessation of Yasukuni visits would likely open the door to the long-overdue Sino-Japanese summit, which in turn might strengthen moderate voices in China seeking a future-oriented relationship with Japan.	实际上，停止参拜靖国神社很可能将开启搁置已久的中日政府首脑会议的大门，这将加强中国温和派的声音，他们寻求发展面向未来的中日关系。


Unfortunately, Koizumi and his allies are not prepared to move forward on the Yasukuni issue.	不幸的是，小泉和他们的盟友不准备在靖国神社问题上更进一步。


As Foreign Minister Aso recently put it: “The more China voices [opposition], the more one feels like going there.	正如外相麻生太郎最近指出的那样：“中国反对的声音越强，日本人越觉得应该去参拜。


It’s just like when you’re told ‘Don't smoke cigarettes,’ it actually makes you want to smoke.”	这就好像当有人告诉你‘不要抽烟’时，实际上却让你更想抽烟。 ”


No one expects the current Japanese and Chinese leaders to embrace, as Nakasone and Hu did two decades ago, but it is a sad state of affairs when the leaders of neighboring giants pretend not to see each other at international forums.	没有人期望日本和中国现在的领导人如中曾根康弘和胡耀邦二十年前那样互相拥抱，但是相邻两个大国的领导人在国际会议上假装互相没看见这种情形令人悲哀。


If Nakasone, who now urges Koizumi to stop the Yasukuni pilgrimage, were to respond to Aso, he might simply extend the analogy: it is not in Japan’s national interest to continue to inhale Koizumi’s second-hand smoke.	如果现在规劝小泉根康弘停止参拜靖国神社的中曾来回答麻生太郎，他可以简单地发挥一下这个类比：继续吸小泉的二手烟不符合日本的国家利益。


Israel versus America versus Iran	以色列、美国和伊朗


TEL AVIV – Israel’s concern about the specter of a nuclear Iran has now degenerated into a crisis of confidence concerning the United States.	特拉维夫—以色列对有核伊朗这一幽灵的担忧不欠已经变成了一场对美国的信心危机。


Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has embarked on a campaign to force President Barack Obama to set a red line that Iran must not cross, lest it risk unleashing an American military response.	总理内塔尼亚胡在一次活动中强迫奥巴马设置一条伊朗不得跨越的红线，否则美国将采取军事干预。


Implicit threats of a unilateral Israeli attack, together with conspicuous meddling in the US presidential election campaign, have compounded Netanyahu’s effort to twist Obama’s arm.	暗示以色列将单方面采取军事袭击以及赤裸裸地干预美国大选，这些举动表明内塔尼亚胡在和奥巴马较劲。


The controversy between the two allies partly reflects their divergent timelines: for Israel, the red line is Iran’s imminent burial deep underground of its uranium-enrichment facilities; for the US, it is the start of a dedicated weapons program.	两大盟友之间的争议部分地反映了它们不同的当务之急：对以色列来说，红线是伊朗马上就要上马的深层地下铀浓缩设施； 而对美国来说，最紧迫的问题是专门用于军事目的的核设施。


But, equally important, the dispute underscores their different objectives.	但是，同样重要的是，这一争议体现了它们不同的目标。


For Israel, war with Iran is not about neutralizing an existential threat; it is about reasserting its regional status.	对以色列来说，和伊朗开战并不是为了消灭一个已经存在的威胁，而是为了重建其地区地位。 以色列领导人认为该国在中东地区的地位受到了严重威胁：埃及出现了敌对伊斯兰政权而；


Israel’s leaders see their country’s standing in the region being seriously threatened by the emergence of a hostile Islamist regime in Egypt; the possibility that a similarly hostile regime will eventually emerge in Syria; the fragility of traditionally friendly Jordan; and the dangerous boost that the regional Islamist awakening has given to Israel’s sworn enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah.	传统友邦约旦摇摇欲坠； 以色列不共戴天的仇敌哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党等地区伊斯兰组织也因此大为振奋。


Both Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak thus regard an attack on Iran as a major strategic move aimed at the broader Middle East, which implies that they would not discount a military campaign that goes well beyond surgical air strikes.	因此，内塔尼亚胡和国防部长巴拉克均将伊朗视为意在大中东的战略性动作，这是一种暗示：以色列不会惮于发动远超外科手术式空袭规模的军事行动。


Indeed, they probably contemplate land incursions into Iran, and possibly a decisive – and, from their perspective, long overdue – showdown with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.	事实上，他们可能已经在考虑从陆上突入伊朗，并（这方面或许已经谋划已久了）对加沙地区的哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党予以决定性打击。


Though determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if doing so requires military action, the US weighs the consequences of a military showdown in very different terms.	美国不会接受伊朗拥有核武器，即使为此采取军事行动也在所不惜。 尽管如此，美国对军事行动后果的评估与以色列大不相同。


A superpower that has earned only frustration in its abortive efforts – whether war or regional diplomacy – in the dysfunctional Middle East, the US faces the Iran crisis in the midst of its epochal strategic shift to Asia and the Pacific.	作为一个超级大国，美国在瘫痪的中东所做的一系列动作都没有取得成功（不管是战争还是地区外交），伊朗危机又发生在其欲进行将重点移到亚太地区的划时代的战略大转移的当口。


The fallout from a war in Iran would pin down the US in the Middle East for years to come, undermining its new strategic priorities.	与伊朗开战的不良影响将在多年内对美国的中东地位造成危险，破坏其新的战略要务。


As a result, the US, though certainly better equipped than Israel for a war to ensure that Iran forever abandons its nuclear ambitions, could nonetheless conclude that that objective is simply too costly.	因此，尽管对于让伊朗永久放弃核野心方面，美国显然比以色列有更好的条件发动战争，但美国极有可能认为这一目标实在成本太高。


The recent report by The Iran Project, whose signatories include the former US national security advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski, concluded that an American military attack on Iran could only delay its nuclear program for up to four years.	最新的伊朗报告（Iran Project，署名作者包括前美国国家安全顾问斯考克罗夫特和布热津斯基）指出，美国对伊朗的军事打击最多只能将后者的和进程延缓四年。


To guarantee that Iran never acquires a nuclear bomb, the US would need to maintain military pressure on Iran for several years.	为了保证伊朗永远不会有核弹，美国需要在多年内保持对伊朗的军事压力。


And, if forced to impose regime change as the ultimate solution to the dilemma, the report assumes that this would require military occupation, which would entail a commitment of resources and personnel greater than what the US invested in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.	伊��报告说，如果最终必须靠推翻政权来解决这一难题，那么就需要采取军事占领，而军事占领伊朗所需要的资源和人力比伊拉克和阿富汗两场战争的总和还要多。


Moreover, the conventional assumption that the region’s Sunni Arab regimes would give tacit approval to a military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations must be revisited in the wake of the Arab Spring – particularly in the aftermath of the recent, sudden upsurge in anti-American violence throughout the Muslim world.	此外，在阿拉伯之春爆发后，传统智慧——中东地区的逊尼派阿拉伯国家必然会默认对伊朗核设施的军事打击——必须重新评估了，特别是在最近突然爆发的席卷穆斯林世界的反美暴力风潮之后。


The pre-Arab Spring paradigm that framed the Middle East as being divided between “moderates” and “extremists” has become obsolete.	前阿拉伯之春时代的范式——中的你可以分为“温和”和“极端”两大阵营——已是老黄历了。


The Islamist governments that have emerged from the downfall of America’s puppet regimes are no friends of an Iranian nuclear empire.	趁美国傀儡政权倒台而出现的伊斯兰政府并不是伊朗核帝国的盟友。


But, in their struggle to survive, they must channel popular anti-Americanism.	但是，在生存斗争中，它们必须疏导流行的反美主义。


For Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, that imperative meant placating the angry mob that recently attacked the US embassy rather than merely condemning the violence.	对埃及总统穆尔西来说，这一要求意味着必须对最近袭击美国大使馆的暴徒进行安抚，而不仅仅是谴责暴力。


An attack on Iran, especially if it develops into a longer war involving regional proxies, is bound to become the trigger for mass anti-Israel and anti-US hysteria, which might draw the Islamist regimes in the region into a dynamic of escalation.	袭击伊朗，特别是如果这发展为涉及地区代理的长期战争，注定会演变为出发反以和反美狂潮的扳机，将该地区的伊斯兰政权成为燎原之势。


It would be impossible to rule out a regional war.	这样一来，地区战争就不可避免了。


The main problem facing a military operation in Iran is the need to ensure its legitimacy.	对伊朗采取军事行动的一个主要问题是必须保证这么做的合法性。


China and Russia would never allow the US to secure a United Nations mandate for an attack.	中国和俄罗斯绝不会让美国促使联合国通过军事打击的决议。


Moreover, while Iranian provocations that clearly reveal the regime’s intentions to develop a nuclear-weapons capability might help build support for American military action, it is far from certain that Europeans, or others, would rush to join another US-led “coalition of the willing.”	此外，尽管伊朗的挑衅行为明白无误地揭露了其发展核武器的意图，这有助于培养对美国军事行动的支持，但欧洲和其他地区会不会争相加入另一场美国领导的“自愿联盟”还远未可知。


The dire legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan weighs heavily on the Western democracies.	伊拉克和阿富汗战争的可怕结局将对西方民主国家造成重大影响。


The saddest part of the story is Israel’s utter indifference to the need to build international legitimacy for its drive to stop Iran’s nuclear program.	最悲观的部分在于以色列在为阻止以色列核计划的行动营造国际合法性方面具有完全不同的需求。


Netanyahu thinks in bold military terms, not in terms of geopolitical strategy.	内塔尼亚胡认为应该采取断然军事手段，而不是地缘政治战略博弈。


His careless Palestine policy has left Israel with few friends in the international community, let alone in the Arab Middle East.	他的鲁莽巴勒斯坦政策已经让以色列在国际社会中失去了所有朋友，更不用说阿拉伯中东地区的友邦了。


Indeed, many regard Netanyahu’s Iran obsession as nothing more than a successful ploy to divert attention from the Palestinian issue.	事实上，许多人认为，内塔尼亚胡在伊朗问题上纠缠不休无非是成功将注意力从巴勒斯坦问题上转移的伎俩。


Only a generous, bold peace initiative that would genuinely revive the two-state solution, accompanied by a freeze on construction and enlargement of West Bank settlements, would help to recover the good will of the Palestinians and their brethren throughout the Arab world.	只有真正可以修补两国关系的宽宏、果断的和平计划，并辅之以停止约旦河西岸定居点的建设和扩展，才能够重新赢得巴勒斯坦人民及其阿拉伯世界同胞的好感。


And only that outcome can secure the international goodwill that both Israel and the US will need for a showdown with Iran.	而只有赢得了阿拉伯世界的好感，才能保证国际社会肯定以色列和美国遏制伊朗的意图。


A Human Rights Crime In Gaza	加沙的人权犯罪


Atlanta -- The world is witnessing a terrible human rights crime in Gaza, where a million and a half human beings are being imprisoned with almost no access to the outside world by sea, air, or land. An entire population is being brutally punished.	亚特兰大-世界正在见证着发生在加沙的一场严重的人道犯罪，在那里有大约150万人被囚禁在几乎与世界断绝联系的地方，无论是从海上、空中或者陆路都很难进入这个地方。 里面所有的人都在承受着残酷的惩罚。


This gross mistreatment of the Palestinians in Gaza was escalated dramatically by Israel, with United States backing, after political candidates representing Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian Authority parliament in 2006. The election was unanimously judged to be honest and fair by all international observers.	在2006年代表哈马斯的政治候选人赢得巴勒斯坦议会的大多数席位后，以色列在美国的支持下对加沙的巴勒斯坦人这种不加区分的虐待更加变本加厉了，尽管这次选举被所有的国际观察员一致认为是诚实和公正的。


Israel and the US refused to accept the right of Palestinians to form a unity government with Hamas and Fatah and now, after internal strife, Hamas alone controls Gaza.  Forty-one of the 43 victorious Hamas candidates who lived in the West Bank are now imprisoned by Israel, plus an additional ten who assumed positions in the short-lived coalition cabinet.	而现在，在一场内战后，哈马斯独自控制了加沙。 在生活在西岸的43个获胜的哈马斯候选人中有41个现在被以色列监禁着，此外以色列还监禁了10名曾在短命的联合政府中任职的哈马斯派别的人。


Regardless of one’s choice in the partisan struggle between Fatah and Hamas within occupied Palestine, we must remember that economic sanctions and restrictions in delivering water, food, electricity, and fuel are causing extreme hardship among the innocent people in Gaza, about one million of whom are refugees.	不管对巴勒斯坦被占领土上法塔赫与哈马斯之间的党派斗争支持哪一方，我们必须记住的是经济制裁以及限制供应水、食品、电力和燃料正在给生活在加沙的无辜的民众的生活造成极度的困难，其中有大约100万人是难民。


Israeli bombs and missiles periodically strike the encapsulated area, causing high casualties among both militants and innocent women and children.	以色列对这个被围困的地区不时的轰炸以及发射的火箭弹给那里的武装人员和无辜的妇女儿童都造成了巨大的伤亡。


Prior to the highly publicized killing of a woman and her four little children last week, this pattern was illustrated by a previous report from B’Tselem, the leading Israeli human rights organization: 106 Palestinians were killed between February 27 and March 3. Fifty-four of them were civilians who didn't take part in the fighting, and 25 were under 18 years of age.	在上周发生的一名妇女和她的四个孩子被炸死的事件被广为曝光前，这样的事情实际上之前已经被B’Tselem（被占领土人权状况以色列信息中心）的一份报告描述过了：在2月27日至3月3日期间，有106位巴勒斯坦人被杀害，其中54人是从未参加过任何武装斗争的平民，25人未满18岁。


On a recent trip through the Middle East, I attempted to gain a better understanding of the crisis.	在我最近对中东地区的穿梭访问中，我试图对这场危机有更好的理解。


One of my visits was to Sderot, a community of about 20,000 in southern Israel that is frequently struck by rudimentary rockets fired from nearby Gaza.	其间我访问了斯德罗社区，这是一个位于以色列南部、大约有20000人口的社区，经常遭到来自临近的加沙的那些劣质火箭弹的袭击。


I condemned these attacks as abominable and an act of terrorism, since most of the thirteen victims during the past seven years have been non-combatants.	我谴责这些袭击为可恶和恐怖行为，因为过去七年间的13位牺牲者大多数是非武装人员。


Subsequently, I met with leaders of Hamas, both a delegation from Gaza and the top officials in Damascus, Syria.	随后我会晤了哈马斯的领导人，有来自加沙的代表团以及来自叙利亚大马士革的高级官员。


I made the same condemnation to them, and urged that they declare a unilateral ceasefire or orchestrate with Israel a mutual agreement to terminate all military action in and around Gaza for an extended period.	我再次谴责了他们的袭击行为，并且敦促他们宣布单边停火或者与以色列共同达成协议在相当长的一段时间内停止加沙内外的所有军事行动。


They responded that such previous action by them had not been reciprocated, and they reminded me that Hamas had previously insisted on a ceasefire throughout Palestine including both Gaza and the West Bank, which Israel had refused.	他们回答说他们以前曾经采取过这样的行动，但是没有得到响应。 他们还提醒我说哈马斯此前曾坚持在包括加沙和西岸的整个巴勒斯坦地区实现停火，但是被以色列拒绝了。


Hamas then made a public proposal of a mutual ceasefire restricted to Gaza, which the Israelis considered and also rejected.	后来哈马斯公开提出双方只在加沙地区实现停火，对此以色列表示愿意考虑，但最后还是拒绝了。


There are fervent arguments heard on both sides concerning blame for a lack of peace in the Holy Land.	双方内部对于无法在圣地实现和平都充满着激烈的争论。


Israel has occupied and colonized the Palestinian West Bank, which is approximately one-fourth (28.5%) the size of the nation of Israel as recognized by the international community.	以色列已经占领并且殖民化了巴勒斯坦的西岸地区，其面积大约相当于以色列被国际社会认可的国土面积的四分之一（28. 5%）。


Some Israeli religious factions claim a right to the land on both sides of the Jordan River, and others aver that their 205 settlements with some 500,000 people are necessary for “security.”	一些以色列的宗教派别宣称以色列对约旦河两岸的土地都拥有权利，还有一些人坚称他们居住着大约50万人口的205个定居点需要“安全”。


All Arab nations have agreed to full recognition of Israel if it will comply with key United Nations resolutions.	所有的阿拉伯国家都同意如果以色列愿意遵守主要的联合国决议，它们就将完全承认以色列。


Hamas has agreed to accept any negotiated peace settlement between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, provided it is approved in a referendum among the Palestinian people.	哈马斯已经同意接受巴勒斯坦民族权利机构主席阿巴斯与以色列总理奥尔默特之间达成的任何和平协议，只要它能够被巴勒斯坦全民公决通过。


This holds promise of progress, but despite the brief fanfare and positive statements at the peace conference last November in Annapolis, Maryland, a retrogression has occurred in the process.	这让我们看到了取得进展的希望，但是尽管去年11月份在马里兰州的安那波利斯和平会议上发表了令人鼓舞宣言，和平进程还是出现了倒退。


Nine thousand new Israeli settlement housing units have been announced in Palestine, the number of roadblocks within the West bank has increased, and the stranglehold on Gaza has been tightened.	以色列宣布将在巴勒斯坦建设9000套新的居住单元，设在西岸地区的路障数量还在增加，而对加沙的压制则更紧了。


It is one thing for other leaders to defer to the US on the crucial peace negotiations, but the world must not stand idle while innocent people are treated cruelly.	其他国家的领导人遵从美国在至关重要的和平谈��上的地位是一回事，但是另一方面当无辜的民众受到残酷的虐待时世界绝不能袖手旁观。


It is time for strong voices in Europe, the US, Israel, and elsewhere to speak out and condemn this human rights tragedy among the Palestinian people.	现在是欧洲、美国、以色列和其他地区发出强烈的声音，齐声谴责发生在巴勒斯坦人民身上的这场人权悲剧的时候了。


A Hundred Years of Superconductivity	超导百年


CHICAGO – The world’s first “quantum” computer – a machine that harnesses the magic of quantum phenomena to perform memory and processing tasks incredibly faster than today’s silicon-based computer chips – was recently sold by D-Wave Systems of Canada to Lockheed-Martin.	发自芝加哥——世界首台“量子”计算机——一台利用量子现象的魔力来构成记忆体且任务执行速度远远高于当前使用的硅芯片的机器——最近由加拿大的D-Wave系统公司出售给洛克希德-马丁公司。


And, while some question whether the machine is truly a quantum computer, its designers have published articles in peer-reviewed journals demonstrating that the basic elements of this novel computer are indeed superconducting quantum bits.	与此同时，当人们开始质疑这台量子计算机的真伪时，其设计者在权威专业杂志上发表文章，阐述了构成这台崭新计算机的基本元素其实就是超导的量子位。


This spring marked the 100th anniversary of the discovery of superconductivity – the ability of materials to carry electrical current with no loss.	此举也成为了超导现象100周年纪念的标志性事件。 所谓超导，就是物质携带电流却不造成损失的能力。


Currents set up in superconducting wires can exist for years without any measurable decay.	超导线中的电流可以存在数年都不出现可测量的衰减。


Because of this property, superconductors have unique features that can be exploited in many ways.	这种特性使得超导体拥有了可供多方面利用的独有特征。


They can carry enormous amounts of current, making them ideal for urban power grids. And, when wound into coils, they can produce extremely strong magnetic fields.	它们可以携带巨量电流，非常适用于城市电网，而被卷成线圈时又能制造出极其强大的磁场。


Such superconducting magnets have been applied in a variety of technologies.	这些超导磁体被应用到一系列技术当中。


The best-known examples are the magnets that drive the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines found in most hospitals.	最广为人知的就是驱动医院磁共振成像系统（MRI）的磁体。


Perhaps the most exotic are the huge magnets used to accelerate particles in the Large Hadron Collider, which seeks to discover the fundamental principles of matter.	最鲜为人知的或许是欧洲大型强子对撞机中用于加速粒子的巨型磁体，而该设备则被利用来探索物质的基本原理。


Despite their great promise, however, superconductors have limits, the primary one being that most superconduct at very low temperatures – indeed, near absolute zero (-273 ºC).	虽然拥有巨大的前景，但超导体也存在自身的限制，其中最主要的一点就是大多数超导现象只有在极低温环境下才能实现——事实上就是接近绝对零度（-273摄氏度）。


Such temperatures can be achieved only through liquid-helium cooling.	而这种温度只能通过液氦冷却来实现。


Thus, Swiss researchers caused excitement in 1986 by announcing the discovery of superconductivity in an oxide of copper at twice the temperature of the previous record holder.	因此当瑞士研究人员在1986年宣布发现了一种可以在比前纪录保持者高一倍的温度下实现超导的铜氧化物时，全世界都为之一振。


Shortly thereafter, researchers in the United States found a related material that superconducts above the temperature at which air liquefies.	不久之后美国研究人员也发现了一种可以在高于气体液化温度的情况下实现超导的相关物质。


As Time magazine proclaimed in May 1987, with the discovery of these so-called “cuprates,” the superconducting revolution had begun.	正如《时代》杂志在1987年5月正式宣布的那样，随着这类名为“高温超导铜氧化物”的发现，我们已经迎来了超导的革命。


Alas, the revolution soon bogged down.	无奈这场革命却很快陷入了低潮。


Cuprates are notoriously difficult materials to work with, because they are very brittle.	这类铜化合物非常难以使用，因为它们极为易碎。


This is exacerbated by their strong anisotropy – the materials have a quasi-two-dimensional structure consisting of a weakly coupled stack of conducting sheets. As such, they are a challenge for industry, though applications are beginning to appear.	更糟糕的则是它们本身强烈的各向异性——这种材料拥有一个由大量互相弱连结的导电薄层所组成的准二维结构，因此虽然不断得到应用，对工业界来说也极富技术难度。


Since the cuprates first appeared, a variety of other “high temperature” superconductors have been discovered – one is a simple compound of magnesium and boron, and another involves a mixture of iron and arsenic.	在高温超导铜氧化物发现之后，科学界也发现了一系列其他类型的“高温”超导体——其中一种是镁和硼的简单化合物，另一种则是铁和砷的混合物。


Although none of them superconduct at temperatures as high as liquid air, they may ultimately be better materials with which to work.	虽然这些材料都未能在高于气体液化温度的情况下实现超导，但他们可能会最终成为可供应用的更佳材料。


Given the vast number of combinations of elements that can form compounds, there is a good chance that better superconductors await our discovery.	考虑到不同元素间可以组合出成千上万种化合物，因此更好的超导材料很可能就在不远处。


In the coming years, superconductors are expected to play a growing role in technology.	超导体预计将在未来科技中扮演日渐重要的角色。


Already, “second generation” cuprate wires are being used to make high-capacity cables for electric-power transmission, and lighter-weight generators for wind turbines.	“第二代”高位超导铜氧化物导线已经被用于制造利于电力传输的高能电缆以及风力涡轮的更轻量发电机。


Stronger superconducting magnets are leading to the development of MRIs with more sophisticated diagnostic capabilities.	强超导磁体推动下的MRI技术发展使得医学诊断更加精确。


Superconductors are being used for levitated trains in high-speed rail transport, and as microwave filters for improved signal bandwidth in cellular base stations.	超导体被运用于高速悬浮列车，还可以制成微波过滤器来提高蜂窝电信基站的信号带宽。


The discovery of a new superconductor with enhanced properties could lead to even greater technological innovation.	一个拥有更优秀特性的新超导体的发现可能会带来更重大的技术革新。


This brings us to the intellectual challenge of superconductors.	这是我们所面临的关于超导体智力挑战。


It took 46 years from the discovery of superconductivity to the 1957 Bardeen, Cooper, and Schrieffer (BCS) theory of how the phenomenon occurs.	从发现超导现象到1957年巴丁-库珀-施里弗（BCS）关于该现象如何产生的理论发表足足用了46年。


Along the way, a number of famous physicists tried and failed to get the answer – Albert Einstein, Werner Heisenberg, and Richard Feynman being notable examples.	沿着这条道路，一大批著名物理学家前赴后继地追寻这个答案——爱因斯坦，沃纳·海森堡和理查德·费曼则是他们的杰出代表。


Discovering the solution required the development of advanced theoretical techniques.	解开这个难题需要依靠先进理论工具的发展。


What had been difficult to figure out was how to get electrons to superconduct.	其中较为困难的则是如何使电子显示超导性。


The basic discovery of BCS was that if the electrons pair up, those couples could indeed superconduct.	巴丁-库珀-施里弗理论的基本发现则是如果电子能两两配对，那么这些电子对就能实现超导。


Fortunately, the mechanism for such coupling was known.	幸运的是，这种配对的机制已经被发现了。


Although electrons are negatively charged, and therefore repel one another, the positive ions that they leave behind when they flow through a metal can mediate an effective attraction between two electrons under restrictive conditions (for example, the metal must be very cold).	虽然电子都是带负电并互相排斥的，但它们穿过金属时所抛弃的正离子可以在某种限制性条件下（比如冷却该金属）成为两个电子互相吸引的有效媒介。


The suspicion, though, is that this is not the case in the new superconductors.	但也有人认为这不会是新超导体的特性。


Cuprates superconduct at much higher temperatures, but, more importantly, they possess some exotic properties: they are formed by doping electrical carriers into a host material that is a magnetic insulator – the last place one would look for a conventional superconductor.	高温超导铜氧化物能在更高的温度下实现超导，但更重要的是它们拥有一种吸引人��特性：它们是由将电载流子掺入基质材料而形成的——该材料是一种磁性绝缘体，也是研究者们最没想到可能实现常规超导体的地方。


And, unlike BCS theory, in which the pairs are isotropic – with identical properties in all directions in space – the pairs in cuprates are strongly anisotropic, resembling a cloverleaf.	跟巴丁-库珀-施里弗理论中电子对都是等方性的（即空间中所有方向都具有同样特性）不同的是，高温超导铜氧化物的电子对是强烈各向异性的，类似一个四面立体交叉的结构。


How can one pair electrons without ions holding them together, thereby enabling higher-temperature superconductors?	如何能在缺少离子的情况下让电子对互相连结在一起，并以此实现高温超导体？


While ideas about this abound, new theoretical breakthroughs most likely will be needed to develop the machinery required to solve such electron-electron theories, perhaps even involving black holes.	当关于这点的理论设想层出不穷之时，必须在解释这类电子-电子理论的体系（甚至包括黑洞）上取得新的理论突破。


Whatever the theory turns out to be, it is certain to revolutionize physics.	但无论这一理论将如何发展，它都注定将催生物理学的革命。


A Better Global Framework to End AIDS	一个更好的消灭艾滋病全球框架


STOCKHOLM, GENEVA – This week, we celebrate the tremendous progress that has been made in the struggle against HIV and AIDS.	斯托克霍姆、日内瓦—本周，我们为对抗艾滋病方面所取得的进步而欢呼。


In many countries with strong health systems, HIV is no longer a death sentence, but a chronic condition.	在许多具备强有力的卫生体系的国家，艾滋病早已不再等同于死刑，而只是一种慢性病。


And Africa has reached a critical milestone: each year, there are now more Africans starting HIV treatment than being infected.	非洲也抵达了临界点：如今，每年开始治疗艾滋病的非洲人数量已经超过了被感染人数。


Still, even as we celebrate, we must also mourn the 1.1 million people who lost their lives to the disease this year.	但是，在我们欢呼的同时，仍然要为今年因为艾滋病而丧生的110万人默哀。


HIV still infects 6,000 people every day, and AIDS remains a leading cause of death among children, adolescents, and women in Africa.	每一天都有6,000人感染艾滋病毒，艾滋病也仍然是非洲儿童、青少年和妇女的主要死因之一。


The movement against AIDS has inspired all of us to help the people who continue to be left behind, and to commit to ending AIDS once and for all.	打击艾滋病运动激发我们所有人帮助落后人群，并致力于一劳永逸地消灭艾滋病。


Fortunately, we already have the know-how, resources, and, crucially, the political momentum to do this; and at the High-Level Meeting on Ending AIDS this year, United Nations member states made ambitious commitments that will put us on the fast track toward our goal.	幸运的是，我们已经具备了完成这一目标的知识、资源以及最重要的政治动力； 在今年的消灭艾滋病高规格会议上，联合国各成员国做出了雄心勃勃的承诺，这些承诺将让我们走上实现目标的快车道。


What’s more, in September, Canada hosted a successful financing conference for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, which brought in almost $13 billion, replenishing the Global Fund for 2017-2019.	此外，9月加拿大举办了成功的遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金融资会议，筹德近130亿美元资金，足够全球基金2017—2019年的用度。


Meanwhile, individual countries have increased their domestic investments, and international partners – big and small – have maintained their support, which is how we will reach the $26 billion needed for the global AIDS response in 2020.	与此同时，个别国家也增加了国内投资，而国际合作方——不论大小——也保持了支持，我们也因此能够筹足2020年全球艾滋病应对计划所需要的260亿美元资金。


But funding parts of the global health system is not enough.	但为全球卫生体系筹资是不够的。


The international community must take a more holistic view and reinforce a global-response architecture that features a clear division of labor and seamless cooperation among various stakeholders.	国际社会必须采取更加全面的视角，加强全球响应安排，这一安排必须对各利益相关方做出明确的分工和紧密的合作。


Ultimately, the goal of such a framework must be to support countries’ own health systems, by marshaling public and private actors at all levels in a given country, so that every facility – from the public hospital in the capital to the village clinic – is properly provisioned.	说到底，这一安排的目标必然是支持各国自身的卫生体系，方法是引导给定国家的各层次公共和私人行动方，以使所有设施——从首都公立医院到乡村诊所——都有合适的准备。


Sweden is proud to continue its support for the Global Fund; at the replenishment conference in September, it pledged 2.5 billion krona ($271 million).	瑞典为一直支持全球基金而感到骄傲； 在9月的筹资会议上，瑞典承诺出资25亿克朗（2.


The Global Fund is by far the largest multilateral source of financing for efforts to fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria; but just like the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (now known as Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance), it is part of a global architecture, and relies on a range of partners to deliver aid effectively.	全球基金是目前规模最大的遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾多边融资源； 但正如全球疫苗和免疫联盟（目前称为Gavi，或疫苗联盟），它只是更大的全球安排的一部分，依靠各合作方有效提供援助。


So, if country-level support for other global-health organizations – such as UNAIDS, the World Health Organization, and the UN Development Programme – dries up, continued progress in the fight against HIV and AIDS will be at risk.	因此，如果支持其他全球卫生组织——如联合国艾滋病规划署、世界卫生组织和联合国开发规划署等——的国家层面支持干涸，就很难保持打击艾滋病方面的进展。


Providing the necessary support will require donors to coordinate with one another, so that all parts of the existing architecture for managing global health issues are adequately funded.	提供必需的支持需要出资方彼此合作，以使全球卫生问题的当前安排的各个部分都能获得充足的资金。


This will then ensure that all countries – and, more importantly, all people – receive the support they need.	这反过来将确保所有国家——以及更重要的所有人民——都能获得需要的支持。


UNAIDS is setting a powerful example for international collaboration, by organizing partners around a common 2016-2021 Strategy to end AIDS.	联合国艾滋病规划署为国际合作树立了强有力的榜样，它组织各方为消灭艾滋病的2016-2021年战略的共同目标而努力。


This unique and innovative partnership brings together 11 co-sponsoring UN agencies, each with diverse sector-specific expertise, and mobilizes various government stakeholders.	这一独特的创新合作安排集合了11家联合国机构共同出资，它们各自具备多样化的具体部门的专业经验，并动员各大全球利益相关方。


Partners include business, community, and faith leaders, as well as teachers, judges, members of law enforcement, parliamentarians, and many others outside the health sector whose actions nonetheless affect health outcomes.	合作方包括企业、社区和宗教领袖，也包括教师、法官、执法官员、议会议员和许多卫生部门之外但能够影响到卫生结果的人士。


One of UNAIDS’ tasks is to encourage national governments to keep AIDS high on their public-health agendas, and to invest in joint efforts to end the disease.	联合国艾滋病规划署的任务之一是鼓励国家政府将艾滋病列为公共卫生日程重点，并联手投资于消灭这种疾病。


It is also the only organization with a mandate to set norms and standards for the global response to AIDS, which means that it plays a key role in the current international framework.	它是唯一一个拥有制定全球艾滋病应对措施规范与标准的权力的组织，这意味着它在目前的国际安排中起着关键性作用。


UNAIDS maintains a close partnership with the Global Fund.	联合国艾滋病规划署与全球基金保持着紧密合作。


It has a presence in more than 80 countries, and its regional teams provide technical support and strategic information, which helps the Global Fund direct its grants to the right programs, locations, and populations at sufficient scale.	它在80多个国家设有办事处，其地区团队可以提供技术支持和战略性信息，从而有助于全球基金将足够规模的资金投向正确的项目、地区和人口。


Moreover, it helps to create the social, legal, and political conditions for people to use health services, not least by promoting gender equality and ensuring that populations at higher risk of contracting HIV do not face adverse discrimination.	此外，它还有助于为人们创造使用医疗服务的社会、法律和政治条件，手段包括但不限于促进性别平等和确保染艾滋病毒高危人群不会面临歧视。


UNAIDS engages with civil society at all levels, by leveraging the international AIDS response to promote equality, dignity, and human rights around the world.	通过利用国际艾滋病应对计划促进全世界的平等、尊严和人权，联合国艾滋病规划署与各个层面的公民社会进行合作。


As such, UNAIDS works to expand the political space for – and investment in – civil society.	在这些合作中，联合国艾滋病规划署致力于为公民社会扩大政治空间和投资。


Yet, despite its broad mandate and many functions, UNAIDS lacks adequate resources, which threatens past achievements and future programs alike, and poses a danger to people and communities that depend on the lifesaving support the organization helps facilitate.	但是，尽管联合国艾滋病规划署权限广泛，功能齐全，但它缺少足够的资源，这威胁到以往的成就和未来项目，并给依赖该组织帮助提供便利的救命支持的人民和国家带来风险。


Sweden and UNAIDS will work together to ensure that the international AIDS response continues to transform – and save – lives.	瑞典和联合国艾滋病规划署将携手致力于确保国际艾滋病应对措施能够继续改变——并拯救——生命。


We will safeguard and empower women and girls, and make sure that vulnerable populations’ voices are heard.	我们将保护和赋权给妇女和女孩，确保脆弱人口的声音得到聆听。


But, at the same time, the international community must strengthen the existing framework for managing global-health issues.	但是，与此同时，国际社会必须强化管理全球卫生问题的现有框架。


As Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said in Montreal in September: “Today we are focusing on the Global Fund, but tomorrow let’s not forget to provide sufficient funding for the entire global health architecture.”	瑞典首相洛夫文9月在蒙特利尔表示，“今天我们关注全球基金，但愿我们明天不要忘记为整个全球卫生安排提供充足的资金。


It is time for the international community to meet that challenge, by pledging to support our global health infrastructure, so that no agency – and no country or person – is left out.	”国际社会应该直面这一挑战，承诺支持我们全球卫生基础设施，所有机构——以及所有国家和个人——都要参与进来。


Aid Works	援助是有用的


NEW YORK – The critics of foreign aid are wrong.	纽约—对外部援助的批评是错误的。


A growing flood of data shows that death rates in many poor countries are falling sharply, and that aid-supported programs for health-care delivery have played a key role.	越来越多的数据表明，很多国家贫困人口的死亡率在迅速下降，卫生援助项目居功至伟。


Aid works; it saves lives.	援助是有用的，它能够拯救生命。


One of the newest studies, by Gabriel Demombynes and Sofia Trommlerova, shows that Kenya’s infant mortality (deaths under the age of one year) has plummeted in recent years, and attributes a significant part of the gain to the massive uptake of anti-malaria bed nets.	德莫姆比尼斯（Gabriel Demombynes）和特罗穆勒洛瓦（Sofia Trommlerova）的最新研究表明，近几年来，肯尼亚婴儿（1岁以下）死亡率显著下降，其中很大一部分原因在于防疟疾床帐的大规模使用。


These findings are consistent with an important study of malaria death rates by Chris Murray and others, which similarly found a significant and rapid decline in malaria-caused deaths after 2004 in sub-Saharan Africa resulting from aid-supported malaria-control measures.	这一发现与穆雷（Chris Murray）关于疟疾死亡率的重要研究是是一致的，穆雷发现，2004年以后，非洲撒哈拉以南地区的疟疾致死率出现了显著而快速的下降，其原因在于外部援助所支持的疟疾控制措施。


Let’s turn back the clock a dozen years.	让我们从12年前开始。


In 2000, Africa was struggling with three major epidemics.	2000年，非洲饱受三大传染病的肆虐。


AIDS was killing more than two million people each year, and spreading rapidly.	艾滋病每年夺走200万以上生命，并在快速蔓延。


Malaria was surging, owing to the parasite’s growing resistance to the standard medicine at the time.	由于寄生虫对传统药物的抗药性越来越强，疟疾出现了大爆发。


Tuberculosis was also soaring, partly as a result of the AIDS epidemic and partly because of the emergence of drug-resistant TB.	结核病也在肆虐，一部分是由于艾滋病所致，一部分是因为具有抗药性的结核病的出现。


In addition, hundreds of thousands of women were dying in childbirth each year, because they had no access to safe deliveries in a clinic or hospital, or to emergency help when needed.	此外，每年有数十万妇女在分娩时丧命，因为她们无法在安全的诊所和医院中生产，也得不到所需的紧急救援。


These interconnected crises prompted action.	这些危机刺激了行动。


The United Nations’ member states adopted the Millennium Development Goals in September 2000.	联合国各成员国在2000年9月通过了千年发展目标（MDG）。


Three of the eight MDGs – reductions in children’s deaths, maternal deaths, and epidemic diseases – focus directly on health.	在MDG的八大目标中，有三个直接关注卫生状况，即减少儿童夭折、难产致死和传染病致死。


Likewise, the World Health Organization issued a major call to scale up development assistance for health.	类似地，世界卫生组织也大力呼吁加大卫生发展援助力度。


And African leaders, led by Nigeria’s president at the time, Olusegun Obasanjo, took on the challenge of battling the continent’s epidemics.	以时任尼日利亚总统奥巴桑乔为首的非洲领导人接受了与非洲大陆传染病作战的重任。


Nigeria hosted two landmark summits, on malaria in 2000 and on AIDS in 2001, which were a crucial spur to action.	尼日利亚举办了两次标志性峰会，即2000年的疟疾峰会和2001年的艾滋病峰会，这两次峰会在促进采取行动方面居功至伟。


At the second of these summits, then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan called for the creation of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria.	在第二个峰会中，时任联合国秘书长安南呼吁建立全球抵抗艾滋病、结核病和疟疾基金（Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria）。


The Global Fund began operations in 2002, financing prevention, treatment, and care programs for the three diseases.	该全球基金于2002年开始运作，为这三种疾病的预防、治疗和看护提供融资。


High-income countries also finally agreed to reduce the debt owed by heavily indebted poor countries, allowing them to spend more on health care and less on crippling payments to creditors.	高收入国家也最终形成协议，同意免去重债穷国的债务，减轻它们的还债负担，将更多的钱用于卫生项目。


The United States also took action, adopting two major programs, one to fight AIDS and the other to fight malaria.	美国也采取了行动，出台了两大项目，一个针对艾滋病，另一个针对疟疾。


In 2005, the UN Millennium Project recommended specific ways to scale up primary health care in the poorest countries, with the high-income countries helping to cover the costs that the poorest could not pay by themselves.	2005年，联合国千年项目给出了如何增进最穷国家初级卫生保障的具体办法，其中高收入国家应该帮助最穷国家承担后者无法独力承担的成本。


The UN General Assembly backed many of the project’s recommendations, which were then implemented in numerous low-income countries.	联合国大会通过了该项目的多项建议，并开始在多个低收入国家实施。


Donor aid did start to rise sharply as a result of all of these efforts.	在这些努力的推动下，捐赠援助的确出现了蓬勃发展。


In 1995, total aid for health care was around $7.9 billion.	1995年，卫生援助总额约为79亿美元。


This inadequate level then crept up slowly, to $10.5 billion by 2000.	这一远远不够的援助水平缓慢地增加着，2000年上升到了105亿美元。


By 2005, however, annual aid for health had jumped another $5.9 billion, and by 2010, the total had grown by another $10.5 billion, to reach $26.9 billion for the year.	但是，到了2005年，年度卫生援助大涨59亿美元，而到了2010年，援助总额在增加105亿美元，达到了269亿美元。


The expanded funding allowed major campaigns against AIDS, TB, and malaria; a major scaling up of safe childbirth; and increased vaccine coverage, including the near-eradication of polio.	资金的充裕使得抵抗艾滋病、结核病和疟疾的项目得以启动、安全分娩得到了大普及，也增加了疫苗的覆盖面，小儿麻痹症基本上被消灭了。


Many innovative public-health techniques were developed and adopted.	许多创新性卫生技术被开发出来并得到了使用。


With one billion people living in high-income countries, total aid in 2010 amounted to around $27 per person in the donor countries – a modest sum for them, but a life-saving one for the world’s poorest people.	约10亿人口生活在高收入国家中，2010年的援助总额意味着他们人均贡献了27美元——对他们来说算不了什么，但对最贫困人口来说足以救命。


The public-health successes can now be seen on many fronts.	如今，公共卫生领域的诸多方面都可以看到进步。


Around 12 million children under five years old died in 1990.	1990年，有1200万不到5岁的儿童夭折。


By 2010, this number had declined to around 7.6 million – still far too high, but definitely an historic improvement.	到了2010年，该数字下降至760万左右——依然很高，但毫无疑问是历史性的进步。


Malaria deaths in children in Africa were cut from a peak of around one million in 2004 to around 700,000 by 2010, and, worldwide, deaths of pregnant women declined by almost half between 1990 and 2010, from an estimated 543,000 to 287,000.	非洲疟疾儿童致死数量也从2004年的最高峰（���100万）下降至2010年的约70万，而全球孕妇死亡数量在1990—2010年间下降了几乎一半，从543 000降至287 000（估计值）。


Another $10-15 billion in annual aid (that is, roughly $10-15 more per person in the high-income world), bringing total aid to around $40 billion per year, would enable still greater progress to be made in the coming years.	如果年度卫生援助能增加100—150亿美元（即高收入国家居民每人再拿出10—15美元），达到每年400亿美元，那么未来几年还能取得更大进步。


The MDGs for health could be achieved even in many of the world’s poorest countries.	卫生相关MDG即使在世界最贫困国家也能够实现。


Unfortunately, at every step during the past decade – and still today – a chorus of aid skeptics has argued against the needed help.	不幸的是，在过去十年所采取的每一个步骤中（现在也不例外），总有一群援助怀疑者对必要的援助指手画脚。 他们一再声称援助根本没什么效果；


They have repeatedly claimed that aid does not work; that the funds will simply be wasted; that anti-malaria bed nets cannot be given to the poor, since the poor won’t use them; that the poor will not take anti-AIDS medicines properly; and so on and so forth.	抗疟疾床帐不能给穷人使用，因为他们根本不会去用； 穷人不会正确服用抗艾滋药物；


Their attacks have been relentless (I’ve faced my share).	如此等等。 他们的攻击是冷血的（包括对我的攻击）。


The opponents of aid are not merely wrong.	援助的反对者不仅仅是错误的。


Their vocal antagonism still threatens the funding that is needed to get the job done, to cut child and maternal deaths by enough to meet the MDGs by 2015 in the poorest countries, and to continue after that to ensure that all people everywhere finally have access to basic health services.	他们异口同声的反对仍在威胁取得成就所必须的融资——减少婴幼儿死亡从而让最贫困国家在2015年完成MDG以及此后再接再厉确保所有国家所有人民都能获得基本卫生服务都需要资金。


A decade of significant progress in health outcomes has proved the skeptics wrong.	十年来卫生成果的巨大进步已经证明，怀疑者是错的。


Aid for health care works – and works magnificently – to save and improve lives.	卫生援助在拯救生命、改善生活方面是有用的，而且很有用。


Let us continue to support these life-saving programs, which uphold the dignity and well-being of all people on the planet.	让我们继续支持这些生命挽救计划，提升所有地球人的尊严和福利。


The AIIB and Global Governance	亚投行和全球治理


HONG KONG – Despite official American and Japanese opposition, 57 countries have opted to be among the founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).	香港—尽管有美国和日本官方的反对，57个国家选择了成为中国发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行（亚投行）创始成员。


Regardless of what naysayers believe, this remarkable turn of events can only benefit global economic governance.	不管对此持怀疑态度者的观点如何，这一令人瞩目的变局有利于改善全球经济治理。


According to former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, the AIIB’s establishment “may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.”	美国财政前部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）指出，亚投行的成立“也许将以美国失去其全球经济体系担保人地位的时刻被人铭记。


Asia Development Bank (ADB) President Takehiko Nakao, by contrast, does not believe that there will be a “major change to the world of development finance,” though he conceded that “there can be interpretations as to the symbolic meaning of this.”	”相反，亚洲开发银行（亚开行）行长中尾武彦（Takehiko Nakao）则认为亚投行的成立不会导致 “发展金融的重大变化，”尽管他也承认“对于它的象征意义，可能存在各种解读。 ”


Who is right will depend largely on the decisions that the AIIB’s top shareholders make regarding its operating structure.	谁对谁错在很大程度上取决于亚投行大股东对其运营结构所做的决定。


So far, the AIIB has not sought to amend the principle that the largest contributor to a multilateral organization gets the largest say in running it.	目前，亚投行并没有试图改变一条国际组织通行原则，即多边组织的最大贡献者获得最大的运营话语权。


Just as the US dominates the World Bank and Europe leads the International Monetary Fund, China will head the AIIB.	正如美国主导世界银行、欧洲领导国际货币基金组织（IMF）一样，中国也将主导亚投行。


This implies a larger global leadership role for China – which the world, including its traditional powers, should welcome.	这意味着中国会承担更多的全球领导作用。 全世界，包括其中的传统力量，应该欢迎这一变化。


After all, global leadership is not just a matter of might; it also reflects the provision of global public goods.	毕竟，领导全球并不仅仅是实力问题，它也包括了为全球提供公共品服务。


When World War II ended, the US, aside from being the world’s leading military and economic power, was the largest provider of such goods, through the Marshall Plan, support for the United Nations, and contributions to the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank).	二战结束时，美国不但是世界上最强大的军事和经济力量，也是全球公共品服务的最大供应者，美国实施了援助欧洲重建的马歇尔计划，支持了联合国，并为布雷顿森林机构（IMF和世界银行）贡献其力量。


But massive debts have lately undermined the ability of the US – not to mention Europe and Japan – to continue making such large contributions.	但如今，巨大的债务制约了美国——更不用说制约了欧洲和日本——继续做出如此巨大的贡献的能力。


Fortunately, China is willing and able to fill the gap.	幸运的是，中国愿意也有能力填补这个空白。


In fact, China might have done so within the Bretton Woods institutions, were the distribution of voting rights within them not skewed so heavily toward the incumbents, who still enjoy veto power.	事实上，中国本可以在布雷顿森林机构内填补这一空白，但这些机构内部的投票权太过倾向于目前当权的发达国家，它们仍享有否决权。


For example, China has a 3.8% voting share in the IMF and World Bank, even though it accounts for more than 12% of world GDP.	比如，中国在IMF和世界银行中的投票权比例只有3. 8%，尽管其占全球GDP比例已高达12%以上。


The United Kingdom and France – which are one-third the size of China – each have a 4.3% share.	英国和法国——经济规模只有中国的三分之一却都拥有4. 2%的投票权。


With the incumbents unwilling to bring China’s voting share in line with its economic might, China had little choice but to launch its own institution.	目前的发达国家当权者不愿意给予中国与其经济实力相称的投票权，中国别无选择，只能成立自己的机构。


But the AIIB has its own objectives, which do not align precisely with those of, say, the World Bank.	但亚投行有其自身的、与世界银行等不完全一致的目标。


Specifically, the bank is a critical element of China’s “one belt, one road” strategy, which encompasses two initiatives: the overland Silk Road Economic Belt, connecting China to Europe, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, linking China to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.	具体而言，亚投行是中国通过“一带一路”战略促进周边国家经济发展的关键要素之一。 “一带一路”战略包括两大工程：连接中国和欧洲的陆上丝绸之路经济带，以及连接中国和东南亚、中东和欧洲的21世纪海上丝绸之路。


While the US “pivots” to the east, China is pirouetting west, applying the lessons of its development to its trading partners across Eurasia and beyond.	在美国向东“转”的同时，中国正在向西迈进，将它的发展经验传播给欧亚地区及之外的贸易伙伴。


Perhaps the most important of these lessons is that connectivity is vital to economic growth.	也许这些经验中最重要的便是连通性（connectivity）对经济增长的关键作用。


Over the last three decades, the construction of roads, railways, ports, airports, and telecommunications systems in China has fostered trade, attracted investment, and, by linking the country’s land-locked western and southern provinces to its more prosperous coastal areas, helped to reduce regional disparities.	在过去三十年中，中国的公路、铁路、机场和通讯系统建设刺激了贸易，吸引了投资，并通过将中国内陆西部和南部省份与更繁荣的东部沿海城市连接起来降低了地区差异。


China’s Silk Road initiative, which aims to boost prosperity among China’s trading partners largely through infrastructure investment, is a logical next step – one on which China is spending significantly.	中国的丝绸之路工程旨在主要通过基础设施投资刺激中国贸易伙伴的繁荣，这是中国发展顺理成章的下一步。 中国正在这方面投入巨资。


In addition to its initial contribution of up to $50 billion to the AIIB, China has committed $40 billion to its Silk Road Fund, $32 billion to the China Development Bank, and $30 billion to the Export-Import Bank of China.	除了给亚投行的500亿美元初始投资，中国还向其丝绸之路基金新注资400亿美元，向国家开发银行新注资320亿美元，向国家进出口银行新注资300亿美元。


According to estimates by HSBC, the “one belt, one road” initiative could end up costing as much as $232 billion – just under two-thirds of the World Bank’s balance sheet in 2014.	根据汇丰银行的估算，“一带一路”工程最终可能耗资2,320亿美元——几乎相当于2014年世界银行资产负债表规模的三分之二。


The $100 billion AIIB will play a central role in this effort.	资本金预计达到1,000亿美元的亚投行将在其中扮演核心角色。


Given massive global demand for infrastructure finance – which, according to ADB estimates, will amount to $8 trillion in Asia alone over the next decade – the AIIB should not be considered a threat to the World Bank, the ADB, or other multilateral lenders.	根据亚开行的估算，全球基础设施融资需求旺盛，光是未来十年的亚洲就需要8万亿美元。 因此亚投行不应该被视为世界银行、亚开行和其他多边贷款机构的威胁。


Nonetheless, it will compete with them, owing to its distinctive – and probably more efficient – approach to lending.	尽管如���，亚投行将与其他机构展开竞争，因为它的贷款方针不同，也许效率更高。


In fact, the AIIB’s operations will most likely resemble those of the World Bank in the 1960s, when engineers with hands-on development experience dominated the staff and could design lending conditions that worked for borrowers.	事实上，亚投行的经营将更加类似于20世纪60年代的世界银行，由拥有实地发展经验的工程师主导工作团队，可以为借款人设计合适的贷款条件。


In the late 1980s, the World Bank began to implement the Washington Consensus, pushing for economic and political liberalization, without sufficient regard for local political or economic realities.	20世纪80年代末，世界银行开始实施华盛顿共识，追求经济和政治自由化而不再充分考虑地方政治或经济现实。


The result was conditional lending, with terms – created mostly by policy wonks – that many developing-country borrowers could not meet (at least not without hiring consultants to adjust their official reporting).	结果是有条件贷款盛行，而其贷款条件往往由学院派政策专家制定，导致许多发展中国家借款人如果不雇用国际组织顾问调整其官方报告，根本无法满足其规定的贷款条件。


The acid test of the AIIB’s effectiveness will be its governance model.	亚投行成效的严峻考验将是其治理模式。


One failing of the Bretton Wood institutions is their full-time shareholder boards of directors, which tend to undermine effectiveness by micro-managing and often requesting conflicting lending conditions.	布雷顿森林机构的失败之一是它有一个全职股东董事会来代表出资国意愿，该董事会总是因为过度微观管理而破坏项目的效果，并且常常要求互相矛盾的贷款条件。


The World Bank has wasted far too much time re-organizing itself under various presidents, without recognizing the fundamental problem with its own governance structure.	世界银行浪费了太多时间不断由新任行长展开对自身的行政重组，而没有认识到其治理结构的根本性问题。


Even if the AIIB does not deliver as promised, its establishment is an important reminder that in a fast-changing world, economic governance cannot remain stagnant.	即使亚投行没有给出其承诺的结果，其成立也可以作为一个重要的提醒，让我们知道，在快速变化的世界中，经济治理不能停滞不前。


If Western leaders really do believe in innovation, competition, and meritocracy, they should welcome the AIIB.	如果西方领导人真的相信创新、竞争和英才治国，他们就应该欢迎亚投行。


AIPAC in Decline	美以公共事务委员会的衰落


MADRID – The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s lobbying power in the United States is undeniable.	马德里——在美国，美以公共事务委员会的游说力量不可否认。


But AIPAC’s supposed ability to control US policy decisions is a Potemkin village myth, cultivated by friends and rivals alike.	但该委员会对美国决策所谓的控制力其实不过是盟友和对手共同制造的虚假神话。


In fact, thanks to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, AIPAC’s influence is under threat – though Netanyahu himself will be just fine.	事实上，虽然以色列总理内塔尼亚胡本人毫发无损，但他的所作所为却对委员会的影响力构成了威胁。


Claims about AIPAC’s clout have long shaped analysis of US foreign policy.	美以公共事务委员会影响力之说一直对美国外交政策分析产生影响。


For example, Steve Walt and John Mearsheimer, in their notorious essay “The Israel Lobby,” asserted that AIPAC manufactured the Iraq War.	比方说，沃尔特·史蒂夫和约翰·米尔斯海默在其臭名昭著的论文“以色列游说势力”中断言该委员会是伊拉克战争的始作俑者。


But the reality is far less sinister: in that case, AIPAC merely surfed on the pro-invasion wave unleashed by President George W. Bush, with his Messianic urges, and Vice President Dick Cheney, a one-man war lobby.	但现实却远没有那么险恶：在伊拉克战争中，美以委员会仅仅是利用了乔治·W·布什总统扮演救世主的冲动和切尼副总统单枪匹马的战争游说所掀起的侵略狂潮。


The truth about AIPAC – that it is influential, but far from invulnerable – has recently been revealed, both to the public and to the group itself.	最近发生的事情令公众和委员会自身看清了其影响力不凡但远非无懈可击的本来面目。


Having been pushed by Netanyahu into an unwinnable fight against US President Barack Obama’s administration over its nuclear deal with Iran, AIPAC is now crumbling under the weight of its own hubris.	因为被内塔尼亚胡推入到一场反对奥巴马政府与伊朗达成核协议的不可能打赢的战争，美以公共事务委员会现在在狂妄自大的重压下摇摇欲坠。


In fact, AIPAC has never overcome resolute opposition from an American president, particularly in a matter of US national security.	事实上，尤其当事关国家安全时，美以委员会从未战胜过美国总统的坚决反对。


It failed to stop Jimmy Carter from selling F-15 Eagle fighters to Saudi Arabia in 1978, or to prevent Ronald Reagan from supplying AWACS reconnaissance planes to the Saudis three years later.	它未能阻止卡特1978年向沙特出售F-15鹰式战斗机，也未能阻止三年后里根将预警侦察机出售给沙特。


And its 1991 battle with President George H.W. Bush over the linkage of US loan guarantees for Israel with Prime Minister Yitzak Shamir’s support of the 1991 Madrid peace conference – one of Bush’s key legacies – ended in defeat.	1991年委员会与乔治·H·W·布什总统就美国以提供贷款担保换取沙米尔总理对1991年马德里和会的支持之争（也是布什最关键的政策之一）同样也以失败而告终。


Against this background, AIPAC should have known that its attempt, in close cooperation with Obama’s Republican opponents, to block the Iran nuclear deal (one of Obama’s most important achievements) would fail.	在此背景下，委员会应该知道它企图联手奥巴马的共和党反对者阻止达成伊朗核协议（奥巴马最重要的成就之一）将不会成功。


Indeed, Obama even used a tactic similar to that of George H.W. Bush to win the day.	事实上，奥巴马甚至采用了与乔治·H·W·布什同样的致胜战术。


Just as Bush openly denounced the “thousand lobbyists” working the halls of the US Congress against a vital national interest, Obama said in a conference call that his critics “would be opposed to any deal with Iran,” and called out AIPAC’s $20 million advertising campaign against the agreement.	就像布什公开谴责“上千名说客”涌入美国国会大厅反对重要的国家利益一样，奥巴马在一次电话会议上说他的反对者“反对与伊朗达成任何协议”，并点名美以委员会投入2，000万美元宣传资金反对协议的达成。


He also put AIPAC in the same category as the Republicans who “were responsible” for leading the US into the Iraq war.	他还将委员会和共和党人划归一类，指责其应对将美国拖入伊拉克战争负责。


For AIPAC – which has traditionally relied on a broad coalition of social and political forces in the US that view Israel’s security as both a moral cause and a vital national interest – this is not any old defeat.	对一直依靠将以色列安全视为既符合道德又合乎重要国家利益的一系列社会和政治势力的美以公共事务委员会而言，这绝非是一次普通的挫折。


The Republican-backed crusade against a key agreement negotiated by a Democratic president, with his party’s overwhelming support, has threatened the bipartisan foundations of Israel’s cause in America.	由共和党支持的对民主党总统在本党全力支持下所谈关键协议的讨伐已经对以色列美国事业的两党基础构成了威胁。


Of course, the nuclear deal involved more than just the US and Iran.	当然，核协议所涉及的不仅是美国和伊朗。


AIPAC was opposing an international agreement that six major world powers – China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the US – had already signed and that the United Nations had approved.	委员会反对的是中、法、德、俄、英、美等世界六大强国已经签署且联合国已经批准的国际协议。


Even some of Israel’s staunchest supporters in Congress were unlikely to deal a potentially devastating blow to America’s international credibility, and the idea that the negotiating countries would all agree to reopen the talks to produce a “better deal” was sheer fantasy.	即使国会中某些以色列最坚定的支持者也不太可能对美国的国际信誉发起毁灭性的打击，认为谈判国家会一致同意重开会谈达成“更好协议”的想法纯属幻觉。


Yet that is the objective that Netanyahu set for AIPAC.	但这就是内塔尼亚胡为委员会设定的目标。


The row over the Iran deal is bound to be a watershed moment for American Jews, among whom sharp divisions have formed.	伊朗协议所引发的分歧注定会成为分裂美国犹太群体的标志性时刻。


Indeed, the American Jewish Committee 2015 Survey of American Jewish Opinion reports the emergence of “two diverging Jewish sub-communities,” with a growing number of Jews feeling alienated by the organizations that claim to represent them.	事实上，美国2015年针对美国犹太人意见的统计调查显示形成了“两个有显著分歧的犹太子群体”，进而导致越来越多的犹太人感到无法融入声称代表他们利益的组织。


AIPAC represents a striking anomaly in the life of American Jews.	委员会代表美国犹太人生活中突出的反常现象。


It is increasingly identified with the Republican agenda and Israel’s evangelical Christian supporters, even though polls have repeatedly shown that Jews are America’s most liberal ethnic group.	尽管民意调查一再显示犹太人是美国最自由的族群，但委员会却越来越贴近共和党议程和以色列福音派基督教支持者。


The truth is that American Jews largely opposed the Iraq war.	事实是美国犹太人大多反对伊拉克战争。


They overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party.	他们压倒性地投票支持民主党。


They define their religion as moderate and liberal, with many upholding gay rights and abortion, both anathema to evangelical Christians.	他们将自身宗教定位为温和自由，不少人崇尚同性恋权利和人工流产，这两者在福音派基督教看来都是一种诅咒。


The majority of American Jews even support the creation of a Palestinian state.	大多数美国犹太人甚至支持建立一个巴勒斯坦国。


And, although they are far from united on the Iran deal, the agreement’s supporters outnumber its opponents.	而且虽然他们对伊朗协议的看法远谈不上一致，但支持协议的人明显多于反对者。


Much of the blame for the damage that has been done – to AIPAC, American Jewish communities, and even the US political process – falls on Netanyahu.	内塔尼亚胡应该对委员会、美国犹太群体甚至美国政治进程所遭受的损失负责。


But he is unlikely to face retribution for any of it.	但他不太可能遭到任何报复。


On the contrary, the Obama administration has already begun the discussions it promised on upgrading Israel’s strategic capabilities.	相反，奥巴马政府已经开始探讨履行其提升以色列战略实力的承诺。


As Arab countries throughout the Middle East melt down – with increasingly significant spillover effects in the West – Israel continues to represent a stable regional partner for the US.	在中东阿拉伯国家相继崩溃对西方影响越来越显著的情况下——以色列将继续扮演美国稳定合伙人的角色。


More dangerous, Netanyahu could achieve his next goal: preventing a strategic détente between the US and Iran that would enable cooperation in resolving major regional conflicts, from Yemen to Syria.	更危险的是，内塔尼亚胡可能会实现他的下一个目标：阻止美国和伊朗缓和战略关系 及解决从也门到叙利亚的主要地区冲突。


After all, Obama’s victory on the nuclear deal may have been inevitable, but it was far from easy.	毕竟，奥巴马在核协议问题上的胜利或许不可避免，但却绝非垂手可得。


An odd coalition of Iranian radicals, AIPAC, the Saudi-led Sunni alliance, the Israeli government, and US politicians from both parties have already compelled Obama to promise additional sanctions on Iran for its sponsorship of terrorism.	由伊朗激进分子、美以公共事务委员会、沙特领导的逊尼派联盟、以色列政府和美国两党政客所组成的奇怪联盟已经迫使奥巴马政府承诺进一步制裁伊朗资助恐怖主义的活动。


As a result, America’s cold war with Iran is likely to persist.	结果是美国与伊朗的冷战可能无法结束。


The Dawn of Climate-Friendly Air Travel	气候友好型航空旅行的黎明


MONTREAL – As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, demand for air travel is growing, with more than 30,000 new large aircraft expected to take to the skies in the next few years.	蒙特利尔—随着世界日益互通，航空旅行需求也在增长，未来几年预计将有超过30,000架新的大飞机上天。


But if we are to sustain growth in air travel without aggravating global warming, we must quickly reduce aviation-related CO2 emissions, which are substantial and not covered by the Paris climate agreement that more than 190 countries agreed to last December.	但如果想要保持航空旅行增长又不加剧全球变暖，就必须迅速降低与航空有关的二氧化碳排放。 与航空有关二氧化碳排放量巨大，并且没有写入去年12月190多个国家达成一致的巴黎气候协定。


Fortunately, now is the perfect time to decouple aviation emissions from air-travel growth.	幸运的是，现在是让航空排放与航空旅行增长脱钩的理想时机。


Representatives from 191 countries convened in Montreal this week for the 39th Session of the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization; after decades of wrangling, they have agreed to an aviation-specific climate agreement.	本周，来自191个国家的代表齐聚蒙特利尔出席第39届联合国国际民用航空组织（ICAO）会议； 在经历了几十年的争论后，他们就一项专门针对航空的气候协定达成了一致。


The new ICAO framework aims for “carbon-neutral growth” in international aviation from 2020 onward, and has as its centerpiece a global market-based measure (GMBM) to help airlines affordably cap their net emissions at 2020 levels.	这一新ICAO框架的目标是从2020年开始实现国际航程的“碳中性增长”，其核心是一项基于全球市场的措施（GMBM），帮助航空公司以可承受的成本将净排放限制在2020年���平。


When implemented, it will be the first carbon-emissions cap on a global industry that does not noticeably increase costs for consumers.	该措施实施后将是第一项不给消费者带来成本显著上升的全球行业排放上限。


And airlines will purchase emissions reductions from other economic sectors, thus funneling billions of dollars into low-carbon development around the world.	航空公司将从其他经济部门购买减排量，从而引导数十亿美元用于全球低碳发展。


For the first six years, the new framework will apply only to flights between countries that have voluntarily adopted it, which means that the ICAO will have to encourage adequate participation for the program to be effective.	在一开始的六年中，新框架将只适用于自愿接受框架的国家之间的航班，这意味着ICAO必须鼓励足够的参与度以使该计划起到效果。


This opt-in approach has some critics, but whether a program is categorized as “voluntary” or “mandatory” is beside the point, because international accords generally apply only to the sovereign countries that have decided to join them.	这一自主加入方针受到了一些批评，但计划应该被归为“自愿”还是“强制”无关紧要，因为国际协定一般只适用于决定加入其中的主权国家。


Some 64 countries have already signaled their willingness to sign on to the ICAO agreement, and together they account for nearly 80% of expected growth in CO2 emissions above 2020 levels.	有64个国家已经表示愿意在ICAO协定上签字，它们加起来占二氧化碳排放量预期增长超过2020部分的近80%。


That isn’t 100%, but it’s a great start, and we can expect more countries to join when they see others reaping the benefits of low-carbon development.	100%固然没有达到，但这是个良好的开端，我们期待更多的国家在看到其他国家收获低碳发展的益处后也能加入。


The airlines themselves will welcome a coherent global framework that establishes clear and predictable compliance metrics, rather than a regulatory patchwork that differs from country to country and complicates international operations.	航空公司自身也将欢迎树立明确可预测的合规标准的一致的全球框架，而不愿面对各国各自为政、让国际经营变得错综复杂的监管拼图。


To minimize compliance costs – and because environmental sustainability is now a key competitive marker for customers and investors alike – airlines will likely encourage the countries where they do business to participate in the ICAO program.	为了实现合规成本最小化——并且因为环境可持续性如今是争夺客户和投资者的关键性竞争市场——航空公司可能会鼓动业务所在国加入ICAO计划。


The new agreement provides an enormous opportunity to prevent the emission of 2.5 billion tons of CO2 in the first 15 years – the equivalent of taking roughly 35 million cars off the road every year the program is in force.	新协定提供了重要机会阻止第一个15年的排放量25亿吨二氧化碳——相当于每年减少3,500万辆汽车。