One of the major problems highlighted in the just-published Africa Progress Report, prepared by the African Progress Panel, is the gap between plans and change on the ground.	非洲发展小组刚刚公布的非洲发展报告牵涉到的一个重要问题就是计划内容和实际变化之间所存在的不同。


Another area where we have seen little progress is in harnessing women’s full talents and potential in the formal economy.	这些年进展甚微的另外一个领域就是在正规经济中开发利用女性的全部才干和潜能。


Women’s economic contribution is, of course, under-valued in many places around the world.	当然，女性对经济的贡献在全球许多地方都被人们低估。


Wherever they live, women face greater obstacles and frustrations than their male counterparts.	无论生活在哪里，女性都比自己的男性同胞面对着更多的障碍和挫折。


But this is particularly true in Africa – a continent where the crucial role that women play in the economy cannot be missed by even the most casual visitor.	但情况在非洲尤其严重——即使是最漫不经心的来访者也不会看不见女性在经济中所扮演的关键角色。


Look in our fields.	看看我们的田野。


It is women who you will see planting and harvesting the crops.	你会看到是女性在种植和收割作物。


Look in our markets.	看看我们的市场。


It is women who you will see buying and selling the goods on offer.	你会看到是女性在买卖各种货物。


Women, too, are setting up the small businesses that are creating jobs and spreading prosperity.	女性也创办许多小企业，在创造就业机会的同时传播繁荣。


Women are truly the motors of Africa’s economies.	女性的确是非洲经济的引擎。


Yet at every turn, their contribution is downplayed and their ambitions are obstructed. Women find themselves cut off from training and support.	但她们的贡献却每每遭到轻视，她们的梦想每每遭到阻挠。 女性发现自己无法得到培训和支持。


And they can face discrimination from the authorities and suppliers.	还可能面临着来自政府和供应商的歧视。


But it is in women’s treatment, deliberately and accidentally, by the financial sector that the most damage is done.	无论有意还是无意，金融行业对待女性的态度造成了最为严重的损伤。


Women receive, for example, only 10% of the credit given to small farmers and less than 1% of total loans to agriculture.	比方说，女性只得到小农场信贷总额的10%，以及农业信贷总额的1%不到。


Yet they are responsible for growing 80% of the food on our continent.	但她们却承担着非洲大陆上80%的粮食产出。


Inheritance rules dictating that land – and its proceeds – can be passed down only through the men of the family have put women at a terrible disadvantage.	土地及相关收益只能传给男性家庭成员的强制性继承规定导致女性所处的地位极其被动。


Africa’s potential not only to feed its own people but to export food around the world is increasingly and rightly acknowledged.	非洲在养活自身人口之外向世界各国出口粮食的潜力越来越受到人们广泛的认可。


But this ambition will be met only through policies that recognize the central role of women in agriculture and enable them to drive a green revolution on the continent.	但只有承认女性在农业生产中的核心地位，允许她们在非洲大陆推动一场绿色革命，这样一个梦想才可能变成现实。


Women’s lack of assets, together with out-dated social norms, is also a major barrier blocking their access to the capital they need to set up and expand small businesses.	妇女财产的缺乏以及陈旧过时的社会规范，在很大程度上阻碍了她们获取创办和发展小企业所需的资金。


Women-run start-ups are most likely to become established enterprises.	由女性开办的新创企业发展为成熟企业的可能性更大。


Yet they command less than 10% of the capital available for investment in new enterprises.	但她们在新企业投资中却只能得到不超过10%的资金份额。


The discrimination continues, despite overwhelming evidence showing that women are more likely to invest business loans wisely and to meet repayment schedules.	歧视仍在继续，尽管有大量证据显示女性明智运用商业贷款、并遵守还款计划的可能性更大。


Even micro-credit schemes often seem to lend less to women than to men in the same circumstances.	就连小额信贷计划似乎都常常在同等条件下借给男性贷款人比女性更多的金额。


Nor are these problems limited to small businesses.	这样的问题也不仅局限在小企业内部。


The African Women’s Economic Summit, which I attended recently in Nairobi, was electrified by the story of a woman who had set up her own construction firm in Cameroon.	在我不久前参与的内罗毕非洲妇女经济首脑会议上，一名在喀麦隆创办建筑公司的妇女的故事就引起了轩然大波。


Her capital needs run into hundreds of thousands of dollars.	她有着数十万美元的资金需求。


Yet, when dealing with financial institutions, she faced the same obstacles and out-dated attitudes familiar to the smallest businesswomen across the continent.	但在与金融机构打交道的时候，她却面临着和非洲大陆女性小企业主同样的障碍和过时的态度。


Financial institutions must remove such barriers to fair and easy access to capital and financial services.	金融机构必须消除这些障碍，让女性能够公平便利地享受到资金和金融服务。


For Africa to reach the growth rates needed to meet the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals, women must be brought fully into the formal economy and the financial sector.	非洲要想完成联合国千年发展计划所制定的增长目标，女性就必须全面参与正规经济，全面享受金融��务。


This requires innovation in the financial services and products on offer, which in turn requires that women – locally, regionally, and internationally – are helping to formulate the solutions.	因此金融服务和产品必须进行创新，而这反过来又要求当地、区域和国际范围内的女性参与制定解决方案。


If governments and key stakeholders can lift the barriers that prevent women from playing their full role in our economy and societies, the future is bright – not just for women but our entire continent.	如果政府和关键利益方能够消除阻碍女性在经济和社会生活中充分发挥作用的障碍，那么无论对于女性还是整个非洲大陆来讲，前途都是光明的。


The Import of Exports	出口商品的进口


CAMBRIDGE – Should a country’s development strategy pay special attention to exports?	坎布里奇——一个国家的发展战略是否应特别关注出口？


After all, exports have nothing to do with satisfying their people’s basic needs, such as education, health care, housing, power, water, telecoms, security, the rule of law, and recreation.	毕竟，出口无关于满足当地民众的教育、医疗、住房、电力、供水、电信、安全、法治和娱乐等基本需求。


So why give precedence to satisfying the needs of distant foreign consumers?	那么，为什么要优先满足相距甚远的异国消费者的需求？


That, in a nutshell, is what many opponents of free trade and economic globalization – as well as many on the right who believe that all industries should be treated equally – want to know.	简言之，这个问题就是自由贸易和经济全球化的众多反对者——以及众多坚信对所有行业应当一视同仁的右翼人士——想要知道的。


But there are no right answers to wrong questions.	但如果问题本身就是伪命题，那么答案就可想而知了。


It is precisely because governments care about their own people that they should focus on exports.	恰恰因为政府关心本国民众，他们才更要关注出口。


To see this, consider what a market economy is all about.	要想弄懂这一点，必须明白什么才是市场经济的根本。


Some, including Pope Francis, would say that it is about greed – a system in which everybody cares only about herself.	某些人，包括佛朗西斯教皇在内，认为市场经济的根本是贪婪——在市场经济体系中，人们只关心自己的利益。


But a market economy should be understood as a system in which we are supposed to earn our keep by doing things for other people; how much we earn depends on how others value what we do for them.	但市场经济的实质应该理解为通过为其他人服务赚取生活费； 我们赚钱的多少反映了我们的服务在他人眼中的价值。


The market economy forces us to be concerned about the needs of others, because it is their need that constitutes the source of our livelihood.	市场经济迫使我们要关注他人的需要，因为正是他们的需要构成了我们的生活来源。


In some sense, a market economy is a gift-exchange system; money merely tracks the value of the gifts we give one another.	从某种意义上说，市场经济是一个礼物交换系统； 钱仅仅跟踪了我们给予彼此礼物的价值。


As a result, a market economy encourages specialization: We become very good in a narrow set of skills or products, and exchange them for millions of other things we have no clue how to do or make.	这样一来，市场经济鼓励专业化：我们熟练掌握狭窄范围内的某种技能或产品，并以此来换取数以百万计我们不知道怎么制作的其他物品。


As a consequence, we end up doing remarkably few things and buying everything else from others.	因此，我们最终能做的事情少之又少，除此之外的其他东西都从别人那里进口。


This observation is as true about an individual as it is about a place, whether the place is a neighborhood, a town, a state or province, or a country.	这项原则既适用于人也适用于特定地域，无论该地域是社区、城镇、州、省、还是国家。


Every town has grocery stores, beauty parlors, gas stations, and movie theaters that serve the local community.	每座城镇都有服务于当地民众的杂货铺、美容院、加油站和电影院。


Economists call these “non-tradable activities,” because they are not undertaken with distant customers in mind.	经济学家称这些为“非贸易活动”，因为它们不以服务远程客户为目的。


But the town’s people would also want access to things that nobody in the city even knows how to make.	但镇上的人也想要镇上甚至没人会做的东西。


For example, most towns and cities do not produce food, cars, gasoline, medicines, TVs, or films.	举例来讲，大多数城镇和城市不生产粮食、汽车、汽油、药品、电视机或影片。


So they need to “import” these goods from elsewhere.	因此他们需要从别处“进口”这些产品。


To pay for what they want from out-of-towners, they must sell them some of the things that they do know how to make.	为了向外人支付他们想要东西的对价，他们必须将自己能够制作的某种东西卖给他们。


Of course, the out-of-towners have the option of buying from somewhere else.	当然，外地人有权从别处进口。


This is why the goods and services that a place can sell to non-residents have a disproportionate impact on its quality of life – and even its viability.	这解释了为什么卖给非居民的商品和服务能对生活质量产生重大影响，甚至影响到生活的可持续程度。


A mining town becomes a ghost town when the mine closes, because the grocery store, the pharmacy, and the movie theater no longer have the capacity to buy the “imported” food, medicine, and films they need.	矿山关闭会导致一座采矿小镇变为鬼城，因为杂货铺、药店和电影院不再具有购买“进口”食品、药品和电影的能力。


In contrast to non-tradable activities, a place’s export activities need to be pretty good to convince out-of-town customers – who have ample other options – to buy from local producers.	与非贸易活动相比，某地的出口活动需要颇具竞争力才能说服有众多其他选择的外地客户购买当地制造商的产品。


That means that exports must have an attractive quality/cost ratio.	这意味着出口必须具备有吸引力的性价比。


One way to increase this ratio is to improve quality and productivity. Another is to lower wages.	出口活动的质量和效率越高，就能在保持竞争力的情况下支付更高工资。


The higher the productivity and the quality of export activities, the higher the wages they can pay and still remain competitive. If employment in the export industry is significant, as is true in most places that do not rely on oil revenues, the wages that the export sector can afford will affect the wages of everybody in town.	如果出口行业就业占比较大，就像不依赖石油收入的多数地域那样，出口行业能够支付的工资将影响生活在城里的几乎所有人。


Everyone thus has an interest in improving their export sector.	因此改善出口行业符合所有人的利益。


Because they are subject to greater competition, export activities tend to undergo faster technological and productivity improvements than other parts of the economy.	因为需要参与更激烈的竞争，出口活动的技术和生产率增长往往要高于经济的其他部分。


They are constantly under threat from innovation and new competitors that could disrupt their business.	他们不断受到来自创新和可能对其业务造成破坏的新竞争者的威胁。


Consider the iPhone’s devastating impact on Finland’s once-dominant national champion Nokia, or the effect of the shale-oil revolution on OPEC.	比如iPhone对曾经在全球占主导地位的芬兰国家大企业诺基亚的毁灭性影响，以及页岩油革命对欧佩克的破坏性打击。


Successful places tend to move from a few technologically simple industries that are competitive enough to export their products to a greater number of industries that are increasingly complex.	成功的地域往往会从有足够竞争力出口产品的少数几个适用简单技术的行业朝着适用更复杂技术的数量更多的行业转型。


For example, in 1963, 97% of Thailand’s export basket was composed of agricultural and mineral products such as rice, rubber, tin, and jute.	比方说，在1963年，泰国出口篮子中97%是大米、橡胶、锡和黄麻等农产品及矿产品。


By 2013, these represented less than 20% of the total, while machinery and chemicals accounted for 56%.	而到2013年， 这些只占出口总额的不到20%，而机械和化工产品则占出口总额的56%。


A similar transformation can be seen in every successful non-OPEC developing country.	所有成功的非欧佩克发展���国家都有类似的转型史。


The success of a place is very much related to its people’s ability to accomplish this transformation, as exemplified by places such as Singapore, Turkey, and Israel.	就像新加坡、 土耳其和以色列等国所表明的那样，某个地域的成功与其民众实现转型的能力有着重要的关系。


So what should countries, provinces, and cities do?	那么各国及各省市该怎么办？


Skeptics might say that they should just focus on fixing the things that locals care about, such as education or infrastructure, or improve everybody’s “business environment.”	怀疑论者可能会说他们应该只关注教育或基础设施等当地人关心的领域，或者改善所有人的“商业环境”。


Exports will take care of themselves.	他们不用去管出口行业。


But life is more complicated than this.	但生活有着高度的复杂性。


The needs of export activities are often quite distinct.	出口活动的需求往往相当独特。


The specific rules, infrastructure, skills, and technological mastery that export activities require tend to be different from those needed for the non-tradable activities that usually generate the bulk of a place’s employment.	出口活动需要的具体规则、基础设施、技能和技术掌握往往与创造当地大部分就业机会的非贸易活动相比有着显著的区别。


While diversification into new areas is always challenging, it is particularly difficult for tradable activities, which have to face foreign competition from the start.	虽然向新领域实现多元化往往十分困难，但对从一开始就要面对外国竞争的贸易活动而言往往难度更大。


By contrast, pioneers in non-tradable activities start with a captive market.	相反，非贸易活动的先锋们从一开始就可以垄断市场。


Moreover, exporters need particularly strong connections to knowhow found elsewhere on the planet, thus making them more sensitive to foreign investment, migration, and international professional links.	此外，出口企业需要与这个星球上其他地方的技术建立更密切的联系，从而使他们在面对外国投资、移民和国际专业联系时敏感度更高。


To survive and thrive, societies need to pay special attention to those activities that produce goods and services they can sell to non-residents.	为了谋求生存和发展，社会需要特别关注那些以非居民群体为销售对象的商品和服务。


Indeed, the need to act on new export opportunities and remove obstacles to success is probably the central lesson from the East Asian and Irish growth miracles.	事实上，抓住全新出口机会和消除成功障碍很可能是东亚和爱尔兰增长奇迹最重要的经验。


Non-tradable activities are akin to a country’s sports leagues: different people like different teams.	非贸易活动就像某国的体育联赛：不同的人喜欢不同的球队。


Those engaged in tradable activities are like the national team: we should all root for them – and organize ourselves to make sure they succeed.	从事贸易活动的人就像国家队：我们都应该为他们喝彩——并组织起来确保他们取得成功。


A Fish Called Development	一条叫发展的鱼


GENEVA – The just-adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are expected to herald the start of a new era in global development, one that promises to transform the world in the name of people, the planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership.	日内瓦—刚刚实施的可持续发展目标（SDG）预示着全球发展新时代的开始，这个时代有望以人民、地球、繁荣、和平和合作的名义改变世界。


But there is an ocean of difference between promising and doing.	但前途和努力之间差着十万八千里。


And, while global declarations are important – they prioritize financing and channel political will – many of today’s pledges have been made before.	而尽管全球宣言十分重要——它们强调融资、引导政治意愿——但今天的承诺过去也曾做出过。


In fact, whether the SDGs succeed will depend to a significant degree on how they influence other international negotiations, particularly the most complex and contentious ones.	事实上，SDG能否成功在很大程度上取决于它们如何影响其他国际谈判，特别是最复杂、争议性最强的谈判。


And an early test concerns a goal for which the Global Ocean Commission actively campaigned: to “conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development.”	一个早期考验是全球海洋委员会（Global Ocean Commission）积极推动的目标：“保护和可持续地利用海洋和海洋资源为可持续发展服务。 ”


When political leaders meet at the tenth WTO Ministerial Conference in Nairobi in December, they will have an opportunity to move toward meeting one of that goal’s most important targets: prohibition of subsidies that contribute to overfishing and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing by no later than 2020.	12月，全球政治领袖将在内罗毕出席第十届世界贸易组织部长级会议，届时他们将有机会推进这一目标的一个最重要的次级目标（target）：在2020年前禁止助长过度捕捞和非法的、不报告的和不受监管的捕捞的补贴。


This is not a new ambition; it has been on the WTO’s agenda for many years, and it has been included in other international sustainable development declarations.	这不是一个新的雄心； 它多年来一直在世贸组织的日程上，并纳入了其他国际可持续发展宣言。


But, even today, countries spend $30 billion a year on fisheries subsidies, 60% of which directly encourages unsustainable, destructive, or even illegal practices.	但是，即使在今天，各国每年对渔业捕捞的补贴高达300亿美元，其中60%直接用于鼓励不可持续的、破坏性的乃至非法的行为。


The resulting market distortion is a major factor behind the chronic mismanagement of the world’s fisheries, which the World Bank calculates to have cost the global economy $83 billion in 2012.	由此导致的市场扭曲是世界渔业长期管理失调的主要因素，据世界银行估计，渔业管理失调2012年给全球经济造成83亿美元的损失。


In addition to concerns about finances and sustainability, the issue raises urgent questions about equity and justice.	除了融资和可持续性担忧，这一问题还导致了关于平等和公正的紧迫问题。


Rich economies (in particular Japan, the United States, France, and Spain), along with China and South Korea, account for 70% of global fisheries subsidies.	富裕经济体（特别是日本、美国和西班牙）以及中国和韩国占全球渔业补贴的70%。


These transfers leave thousands of fishing-dependent communities struggling to compete with subsidized rivals and threaten the food security of millions of people as industrial fleets from distant lands deplete their oceanic stocks.	这些转移支付资金导致成千上万依赖捕鱼为生的社会难以与获得补贴的对手竞争，而工业化远洋捕捞耗尽了海洋资源，让数百万人的食品安全受到威胁。


West Africa, where fishing can be a matter of life and death, is being particularly hard hit.	在西非，捕鱼事关生存和健康，但正在遭到特别严重的冲击。


Since the 1990s, when foreign vessels, primarily from the EU and China, began to fish on an industrial scale off its shores, it has become impossible for many local fishers to make a living or feed their families.	自20世纪90年代以来，外国船只（特别是来自欧盟和中国的船只）开始在西非沿岸进行工业规模捕捞，这让许多本地渔民难以为生活养活家庭。


From 1994 to 2005, Senegal’s catch fell from 95,000 to 45,000 tons, according to government estimates, and the country lost half of its fleet of traditional wooden pirogues.	据政府统计，从1994年到2005年，塞内加尔捕鱼量从95,000吨下降到45,000吨，传统独木舟数量也减少了一半。


As the fish stocks collapsed in 2005, 5,000 people decided to put their redundant fishing boats to a different use, by fleeing to the Spanish Canary Islands.	2005年，随着渔业存量的暴减，5,000人决定将闲置渔船用作其他用途，逃往西班牙加纳利群岛。


A year later, more than 30,000 others made the same perilous journey, and an estimated 6,000 drowned.	一年后，3,000多人也做出了同样的选择。 据估计有6,000人溺亡。


Senegalese and Mauritanian fishermen and their families are also among the thousands of people risking their lives to get to Europe today.	如今冒着生命危险前往欧洲的难民大军中也不乏塞内加尔和毛里求斯渔民和他们的家庭。


On the high seas, the distortion is even larger.	在公海，这一扭曲状况更加触目惊心。


According to fisheries economists, subsidies by some of the world’s richest countries are the only reason large-scale industrial fishing in areas beyond coastal countries’ 200-mile exclusive economic zones is profitable.	据渔业经济学家的数据，一些世界最富裕国家的补贴是在沿海国家200英里专属经济区外进行大规模工业捕捞有利可图的唯一原因。


But fish do not respect international boundaries, and it is estimated that 42% of the commercial fish being caught travel between countries’ exclusive zones and the high seas.	但鱼群不会遵守国际边界，据估计42%被商业捕捞捕获的是在专属经济区和公海之间游弋的鱼群。


As a result, industrial fishing far from shore undermines developing countries’ coastal, mostly artisanal, fisheries.	因此，远海工业捕捞破坏了发展中国家主要依靠手工进行的沿海捕捞。


Eliminating harmful fisheries subsidies by 2020 is not only crucial for conserving the ocean; it will also affect our ability to meet other goals, such as our promises to end hunger and achieve food security and to reduce inequality within and among countries.	2020年取消有害渔业补贴不但是保护海洋的关键； 它还影响我们实现其他目标的能力，比如结束饥饿、实现粮食安全以及降低国家内部和国家之间的不平等性的承诺。


The credibility of both the WTO and the newly adopted SDGs will be on the line in Nairobi.	世贸组织和新实施的SDG的信誉悬于内罗毕会议。


The Global Ocean Commission has put forward a clear three-step program to eliminate harmful fishing subsidies.	全球海洋委员会已经提出了一份明确的三步走计划取消有害的渔业补贴。


All that is needed is for governments finally to agree to put an end to the injustice and waste that they cause.	所要的只是政府最终同意终结它们所造成的不公和浪费。


Fortunately, there are encouraging signs.	幸运的是，有一些令人鼓舞的信号。


Nearly 60% of the WTO’s membership supports controlling fisheries subsidies, with support from the African, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of developing countries – together with the EU’s contribution to improve transparency and reporting – giving new momentum to the effort.	近60%的世贸组织成员支持控制渔业补贴，而来自非洲、加勒比和太平洋发展中国家集团的支持——以及欧盟在增进透明度和报告方面的贡献——为这一努力提供了新动力。


Among the initiatives being put forward in advance of the Nairobi meeting is the so-called “NZ +5 proposal.”	内罗毕会议前所实施的项目被称为“NZ+5计划”。


Co-sponsored by New Zealand, Argentina, Iceland, Norway, Peru, and Uruguay, the plan would eliminate fisheries subsidies that affect overfished stocks and contribute to illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.	该计划由新西兰、阿根廷、冰岛、挪威、秘鲁和乌拉圭共同出资，将消灭影响过度捕捞存量和助长非法、不报告和不受监管的捕捞的补贴。


The Global Ocean Commission urges the remaining 40% of the WTO’s members – and especially the biggest players currently blocking this process – to accept the relatively modest proposals on the table.	全球海洋委员会敦促剩余40%世贸组织成员——特别是目前阻挠这一进程的大国——接受相对温和的方案。


A sustainable future for our planet and its oceans depend on it.	地球和海洋的可持续未来命悬于此。


Endgame in Kosovo	科索沃的最后结局


In the coming months, a fundamental decision will be made that will challenge the capacity of the international community, particularly Europe, for conflict resolution.	在接下来的几个月里将会产生一项重要决定，这一决定将是对国际社会，特别是欧洲解决争端能力的一种挑战。


The issue is Kosovo’s status – the last unresolved piece of the bloodstained Balkans puzzle.	科索沃地位的问题¾浸满血渍的巴尔干拼图最后未搞定的一块。


For Serbs and Albanians alike, Kosovo is a place haunted by history.	无论对于塞族还是阿尔巴尼亚人，科索沃都被历史的阴云所笼罩着。


But the world must not allow their freighted narratives about the past to cloud our actions to build a better future.	但世界并不容许对过去的负面叙述成为我们开创美好未来的阴影。


In the 1990’s, following its atrocities in Bosnia, Slobodan Milosevic’s Serb regime abolished Kosovo’s long-standing autonomy, suppressing the rights of the province’s overwhelming Albanian majority.	20世纪90年代，继在波斯尼亚实行暴力之后，米洛舍维奇政府又废除了科索沃长期以来的自治，并压迫在科索沃占绝大多数的阿尔巴尼亚人。


Instead of simply watching in horror, as it did at the start of the Bosnian war, NATO decided to intervene before Milosevic’s forces could again devastate one of the constituent ethnic groups of the former Yugoslavia.	和波斯尼亚战争一开始一样，北大西洋公约组织并没有恐惧地袖手旁观，而是在米洛舍维奇的军队再次摧毁前南斯拉夫又一个少数民族前进行了干涉。


Security of the European Union and Europe’s moral responsibility after the crimes of World War II were at stake.	当时，二战后欧盟的安全及欧洲的道德责任受到了威胁。


Following NATO’s intervention, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1244, placing Kosovo under UN administration.	在北约干涉后，联合国安理会全票通过了第1244决议，将科索沃置于联合国的管理之下。


Since 1999, the international community’s policies with regard to Kosovo have had wide international support, including from Russia.	1999年后，国际社会制定的关于科索沃的政策得到了全世界的支持，其中也包括俄罗斯。


Now the time has come to resolve Kosovo’s status permanently.	现在正是永久性解决科索沃地位的时候。


Otherwise, the stability that the UN has brought to Kosovo, and the region, will not last.	否则联合国给予科索沃及整个地区的安定将不能持久。


Unemployment is now running at over 40% in Kosovo and breeds political volatility.	目前，科索沃的失业率超过40%，这蕴含着政治动荡。


Without access to sovereign lending from the World Bank or the IMF, Kosovo’s economy will continue to stagnate.	不能作为主权国家从世界银行或世界货币金融组织贷款，科索沃的经济将会持续停滞。


Resolving Kosovo’s status is also a necessity for the province’s Serb minority, who continue to live in uncertainty, not knowing whether to look to Belgrade or Pristina for protection of their rights.	解决科索沃的地位问题同时也是该省作为少数民族的塞族的需要，否则他们将会继续陷入不安之中，不知该去贝尔格莱德还是塞尔维亚和黑山寻求自己权益的保护。


It would free both Serbia and the EU to move forward on Serbia’s domestic reforms and international integration.	而塞尔维亚和欧盟则可以自由地推动塞尔维亚国内改革以及与国际接轨。


The UN Special Envoy for the Kosovo Future Status Process, former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, has now, after 14 months of intensive negotiations with Belgrade and Pristina, presented his settlement proposal to the Security Council.	前芬兰总统阿赫蒂萨里，联合国关于科索沃未来地位进程的特使现已与贝尔格莱德以及塞尔维亚和黑山进行了为期14个月的会谈，并向安理会提交了解决提案。


Ahtisaari’s bold proposal, which recommends Kosovo’s independence with initial supervision by a strong international civilian and military presence, is the only viable option for the international community, and for Europe in particular.	阿赫蒂萨里在这一大胆的提案中建议科索沃在国际平民及军事存在的强大监督下独立。 这是国际社会，特别是欧洲唯一可行的选择。


Reintegrating Kosovo into Serbia is not tenable.	将科索沃再次归入塞尔维亚并不实际。


Since the end of the conflict in June 1999, Serbia has not exercised any governing authority over Kosovo.	1999年6月冲突结束后，塞尔维亚再未对科索沃实行任何政府管理。


Under UN administration, legitimate Kosovar institutions for managing domestic affairs have been created.	在联合国的管理下，处理国内事务的科索沃法制体系被建立起来。


With these institutions in place, Kosovo’s people expect greater self-government.	有了这些体系，科索沃可以期待更大的自治。


Sadly, Belgrade’s vision of Kosovo returning to Serbian rule – albeit with autonomy – ignores these realities.	不幸的是，贝尔格莱德希望科索沃回归塞尔维亚（尽管是以自治的方式），但却忽略了一些现实。


Indeed, Serbia has no viable strategy for integrating Kosovo’s two million people into Serbian political institutions and public life.	确实，塞尔维亚并没有将科索沃二百万人融入塞尔维亚政治体系与社会生活的可行方案。


The UN simply cannot solve Kosovo’s structural problems, namely the need to develop a viable economy and to begin engagement with the EU – the most powerful motor for reform and economic development in the region.	联合国并不能解决科索沃的结构性问题，亦即发展可行性经济的需要，以及与欧盟这个该地区改革和经济发展最为强大动力的合作。


But this does not mean that the international community and the EU should now leave Kosovo to its own devices.	但这并不意味着国际社会与欧盟现在就将科索沃丢弃不管。


Relations between Kosovo’s Albanian majority and Serb minority remain uneasy.	科索沃占多数的阿族与少数民族塞族的关系依旧不好解决。


So it is imperative that strong safeguards are put in place to protect minorities, particularly the Serbs.	因此必须有强大的安全保障来保护少数民族，特别是塞族。


International supervision of Kosovo’s independence by a strong international civilian and military presence will be critical to ensure that it fulfills its obligations under the settlement proposal.	国际社会以平民和军事存在来监督科索沃的独立将非常关键，这可以保证其履行解决提案里所承担的责任。


What is now required is the will to adopt and implement Ahtisaari’s plan.	现在需要的是接受并实行阿赫蒂萨里计划的决心。


In the coming weeks, the Security Council will decide Kosovo’s status, but it is the EU that will have to coexist with both Kosovo and Serbia.	在接下来的几周中，安理会将决定科索沃的地位，而将与科索沃及塞尔维亚共存的则是欧盟。


In fact, Kosovo’s fate is intertwined with the EU’s own.	事实上，科索沃的命运与欧盟休戚与共。


A strong and stable Kosovo will require a cohesive and united Europe.	强大而稳定的科索沃需要和睦团结的欧洲。


If the EU is divided on an issue lying at its geographic heart – and at the heart of its interests – its credibility as a foreign policy actor on matters beyond its borders will suffer dramatically.	如果欧盟在处于地理心脏位置¾并且还是其利益的心脏位置¾的问题产生分歧，那么欧盟在处理超出欧洲边界的事务时所扮演的外交角色就会大打折扣。


And only a united EU can bring Russia on board for a harmonized policy towards the Balkans.	而只有团结的欧盟才能将俄罗斯请到谈判桌上共同寻求解决巴尔干问题的一致政策。


This means that the EU cannot leave Serbia to its own devices, either.	这就意味着欧盟也不能对塞尔维亚袖手旁观。


The EU must make it clear that it is ready to support Serbia – and the region as a whole – in realizing its European aspirations.	欧盟必须明确表示愿意支持塞尔维亚及整个地区，支持其实现在欧洲的目标。


European security is hinged on Serbian integration, just as Serbian aspirations hinge on the EU.	欧洲的安全有赖于塞尔维亚与欧洲并轨，正如同塞尔维亚的目标也有赖于欧盟得以实现。


But the price of the EU’s support cannot be changed: the major war criminals Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic must be delivered to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague.	但换取欧盟支持的代价是不容改变的：卡拉季奇和姆拉迪奇等主要战犯必须送交位于海牙的联合国前南斯拉夫国际刑事法庭。


Today, as yesterday, the first step towards Serbia’s European integration is full cooperation with the ICTY.	同过去一样，塞尔维亚今天迈向与欧洲并轨的进程需要与前南斯拉夫国际刑事法庭的通力合作。


Serbia has a bright future with the EU, but getting there requires that it break with its own past – on both Kosovo and the atrocities of the Milosevic era.	塞尔维亚与欧盟有着美好的前景，但要实现这一前景则需要它与自身的过去分道扬镳¾亦即科索沃以及米洛舍维奇暴力统治的时代。


Ground the Drones in 2013	2013年停飞无人机


LAHORE – Although 2012 saw an accelerating drawdown of United States and NATO forces’ in Afghanistan, a grim aspect of that decade-long war – reliance on air strikes by unmanned drones – continued unabated.	拉合尔——尽管2012年驻阿富汗美国和北约部队加速撤离，这场十年战争的阴暗面——依赖无人机展开空袭——依然丝毫没有减弱。


Indeed, those attacks were stepped up, with America’s use of drone warfare in Pakistan reaching an unprecedented height over the past year.	事实上，无人机攻击还有所增强，因为美国在巴基斯坦实施的无人机作战与去年相比达到了前所未有的高度。


With President Barack Obama re-elected and no longer facing the pressure of a campaign, it would be in America’s interest – and certainly in the interests of my country, Pakistan – to use the first year of his new term to de-escalate the violence.	随着奥巴马总统重新当选后摆脱竞选压力，利用新任期的第一年来解除暴力无疑符合美国——和我的祖国巴基斯坦的利益。


America’s drone strikes in Pakistan reflect an arrogant frame of mind that fails to distinguish between the guilty and the innocent, between the perpetrator and the afflicted, and between the criminal and the aggrieved.	美国对巴基斯坦的无人机袭击反映了一种傲慢的心态，无视肇事者和无辜平民、罪犯和受害者以及行凶者和含冤者之间的区别。


By banishing all trappings of justice, this mindset is oblivious to the suffering of the peace-loving civilians who comprise the vast majority of those living in Pakistan’s tribal areas.	这种心态摆脱了一切正义束缚，对巴基斯坦部落地区绝大多数爱好和平的平民百姓的痛苦充耳不闻。


The US drone strikes have left behind a long trail of death of innocent civilians, with no one being held accountable.	美国无人机袭击留下了一长串无辜平民的伤亡清单，没有人为这些平民的死亡负责。


These remote-controlled flying machines are programmed to decimate, brutally and indiscriminately.	这些远程控制的飞行器以毁灭为目的，这样的成批杀害既残忍而且不分青红皂白。


It is shameful that a country known for its democratic values and its unparalleled commitment to human freedom should stoop so low as to kill innocent men, women, and children.	一个以民主价值观和无与伦比的人类自由承诺而闻名于世的国家竟然堕落到去杀害无辜的男人、妇女和儿童，这种行径是非常可耻的。


As a result, instead of winning hearts and minds, the US, with the constant humming of killer drones in the air, is driving fear into every living soul in the tribal areas.	结果是无人机杀手升空的嗡嗡声不仅没有为美国赢得民心，反而将恐惧注入到部落地区每个人的心中。


Indeed, the bloody irony is that the strategy is utterly counter-productive; the people of the tribal areas, with their warrior past, end up joining the militants, justifying their actions as jihad against the forces occupying Afghanistan and their helpers in Pakistan.	其实极具讽刺意味的是，这种政策起到了完全相反的效果； 部落地区的民众过去都曾参与战斗，他们最终却选择加入恐怖份子，并将自己的行为视为打击阿富汗占领军及其巴基斯坦帮凶的圣战。


Indeed, according to a recent report by researchers at New York University School of Law and Stanford Law School, the people in the areas targeted by the drone campaign are being systematically terrorized.	事实上，按照纽约大学法学院和斯坦福大学法学院研究员在近期报告中的说法，在无人机目标区域生活的民众出现全面的恐怖化。


The drone strategy constitutes a campaign of terror – highly effective terror in which even funerals of drone victims have been targeted.	无人机战略已成为一种恐怖活动，这种恐怖活动极为高效，就连无人机受害者的葬礼都成为袭击目标。


In one particularly notorious case, 40 maliks (tribal leaders) holding a jirga (tribal assembly) were burned in an indiscriminate attack.	一个特别臭名昭著的例子是一次不分青红皂白的袭击导致40名举行族长会议的部落首领丧生。


Alongside many luminaries around the world, former US President Jimmy Carter has condemned Obama’s barbaric drone policy.	奥巴马野蛮的无人机政策遭到美国前总统吉米·卡特和世界众多杰出人物的一致谴责。


But the complicity of Pakistan’s government is equally reprehensible.	但巴基斯坦政府与奥巴马政府沆瀣一气同样应当受到谴责。


According to WikiLeaks, former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani approved the US drone strikes, saying: “I don’t care if they do it as long as they get the right people.	按照维基解密的说法，前总理优素福·拉扎·吉拉尼批准美国发动无人机袭击，表示：“只要他们找对目标我并不反对他们这样做。


We’ll protest in the National Assembly and then ignore it.”	我们将在国民议会进行抗议，之后就不再追究。


President Asif Ali Zardari went even further, saying that he did not care about the “collateral damage.”	” 总统阿西夫·阿里·扎尔达里走得更远，表示自己并不关心“连带损失”。


So Pakistan’s government has failed in its principal responsibility, enshrined in its constitution, to safeguard the lives and property of its citizens, as well as the country’s security and sovereignty.	因此巴基斯坦政府未能履行宪法规定的主要责任，那就是保护公民的生命财产和国家的主权安全。


More than 40,000 citizens have been killed since the beginning of the US war in Afghanistan, because Pakistan’s government criminally collaborates with forces that facilitated its rise to power.	美国发动阿富汗战争以来已导致超过40,000名平民丧生，因为巴基斯坦政府与助其掌权的势力展开了罪恶的合作。


And, in the face of ongoing military operations, most schools in Waziristan have remain closed for the past 7 years, depriving a generation of children of education and opportunity.	同时，由于不间断的军事行动，过去7年来瓦济里斯坦的绝大部分学校陷于关闭，导致整整一代儿童的教育和机会被无情地剥夺。


The road to peace in South Asia runs through restive Waziristan.	南亚地区的和平之路无法绕过动荡的瓦济里斯坦。


Despite countless sacrifices in the face of the drone strikes’ arbitrary cruelty, the resolve of the tribal areas’ people remains undented.	尽管面对残酷的无人机袭击所带来的无数伤亡，却从未动摇部族地区民众的决心。


While they continue to seek peace, they are not willing to compromise their honor and self-respect, however daunting the challenges they confront.	在寻求和平的道路上，无论面对多么令人生畏的挑战，他们都不愿���害自己的名誉和自尊。


The true face of their cultural patrimony and proud traditions must be brought to the world’s attention, so that their dream of peace with honor can be realized.	他们文化遗产和光荣传统的真实面目必须引起世界的关注，这样才有可能实现他们所梦想的有尊严的和平。


But this can happen only when the US and Pakistani governments disengage from their “war on terror.”	但只有美国和巴基斯坦政府停止“反恐战争”，这样的梦想才有可能成真。


Indeed, only when Pakistan is no longer perceived as fighting a US war will local militants stop thinking of the conflict as a jihad against foreign intervention.	事实上，只有当巴基斯坦不再为美国而战，当地武装份子才不会认为这是一场反对外来干涉的神圣战争。


Peace will come when the tribal people, in their hundreds and thousands, no longer see a reason to fight.	只有当成千上万的部落民众不再有理由参战时，才能实现真正的和平。


In short, the drone strikes constitute a flawed policy that has only strengthened anti-US sentiment and the forces of extremism in Pakistan.	总之，无人机袭击是增强巴基斯坦反美情绪和极端主义势力的缺陷政策的一部分。


America’s killing machines have failed to subjugate the area’s proud people – a failure that underlies the US decision to withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014.	美国的杀人机器未能征服部族地区骄傲的人民——这一失败导致美国决定2014年从阿富汗撤军。


I believe that the withdrawal should come even sooner, so that the US can avoid leaving behind a legacy of animosity that may continue to haunt it for generations.	我认为撤军行动应该尽早开始，这样能够避免对美国敌意的世代传承。


Only a rapid change of course by the Obama administration in 2013 can begin to counteract the enmity toward the US that has been generated by more than a decade of its forces’ lethal presence in the region.	奥巴马政府只有在2013年迅速做出改变才能抵抗美军在该地区十余年致命存在所引发的敌意。


America’s drone war, with its wanton destruction of families and communities, is deepening that antipathy.	美国的无人机战争肆意破坏家庭和社会，并导致这种反感不断加深。


To get peace in Afghanistan, indeed all of South Asia, the US needs to give peace a chance!	美国必须给和平一个机会，才能实现阿富汗和南亚和平！


Waging Peace in Colombia	在哥伦比亚缔造和平


BOGOTÁ – Colombians are close to bringing to an end the oldest and only remaining armed conflict in the Western Hemisphere.	波哥大—哥伦比亚即将结束西半球历史最久、也是目前仅存的武装冲突。


After more than five years of negotiations with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), we can say that we have reached an irreversible phase that will put an end to more than 50 years of a cruel and costly war.	在与FARC（哥伦比亚革命武装力量）进行了五年多的谈判后，我们可以说木已成舟，50多年代价高昂的残酷战争行将结束。


All of my predecessors over the past five decades attempted to make peace with the FARC, the largest and oldest guerrilla army to have emerged in Latin America.	过去五十年来，我的诸位前任试图与拉丁美洲规模最大、历史最久的游击队FARC和解。


They all failed.	他们均失败了。


So why has this peace process proved successful?	那么，为何此次和平进程能获得成功？


Above all, this has been a well-planned and carefully executed process that began when we achieved certain conditions.	首先，这是一个周密规划、仔细执行的进程，在我们已经实现了一定的条件后才开始。


First, we had to change the correlation of military forces in favor of the Colombian state.	首先，我们必须改变军事力量的相关性，使形势有利于国家。


Second, we had to convince the FARC’s leaders that it was in their own personal interest to enter serious negotiations and that they would never achieve their objectives through violence and guerrilla warfare.	其次，我们必须说服FARC领导人严肃对待谈判符合他们的自身利益，而通过暴力和游击战争是无法达到他们的目的的。


Last but not least, we implemented a radical change in our foreign policy, which led to an improvement in our relations with our neighbors and the rest of the region.	最后，我们大大改变了我们的外交政策，改善了我们与邻国以及地区内其他国家的关系。


This facilitated their support of our initiative and thus the beginning of the peace process.	这有助于让它们支持我们的计划，从而开启和平进程。


We started secret negotiations almost four years ago to establish a limited and focused agenda and clear rules of procedure (the absence of which was a major stumbling block in previous negotiations) that would allow us – assuming we reach an agreement – to end the conflict.	我们在将近四年前开始秘密谈判，以制定有限的、目标明确的日程和程序日程的明确规则（在此前的多次谈判中，缺乏这一点是主要障碍之一），这让我们——如果形成协议的话——得以结束冲突。


This was the first time that the FARC had agreed to such a process.	这是FARC第一次同意和平进程。


The outcome of this phase was a five-point agenda: Rural development, political participation, drug trafficking, victims and transitional justice, and lastly the end of the conflict, which includes disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration – commonly known as DDR.	该阶段的结果是一个五点日程：农村发展、政治参与、毒品走私、受害者和转型正义（transitional justice），以及最终结束冲突，包括解除武装、解散和重返社会，即DDR。


Following the signing of a framework agreement in Oslo in October 2012, we began the public phase of negotiations in Cuba.	2012年在奥斯陆签署框架协议后，我们在古巴开始了谈判的公开阶段。


The host country and Norway acted as guarantors, while Venezuela and Chile have accompanied the process.	东道国和挪威充当担保人，而委内瑞拉和智利也协助了和平进程。


Later on, the United States and the European Union appointed special envoys to the talks.	随后，美国和欧盟派遣了谈判特使。


From the start, a basic rule of the negotiations has been that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.	从一开始，谈判就有一个基本规则，即直到所有事务都商定后再签署协议。


To date, we have settled all items except DDR.	目前我们已经完成了除DDR外的所有事项。


To avoid past mistakes, we studied why previous peace negotiations in Colombia had failed, as well as lessons from peace negotiations elsewhere.	为了避免过去的错误，我们研究了此前哥伦比亚和平谈判为何失败，以及其他地区的成功和平谈判的经验。


We also selected a group of international advisers with hands-on experience in peacemaking to help us navigate through the difficult waters of this process.	我们还选择了一批拥有调停经验的国际顾问帮助我们度过和平进程的苦难阶段。


I can now say that making peace is much, much more difficult than waging war, and I have done both extensively as Colombia’s Minister of Defense and now as President.	现在我可以说，媾和比宣战困难得多，我在哥伦比亚国防部长和总统任上都为此付出了巨大努力。


This peace process is groundbreaking in several ways.	从诸多方面讲，这一和平进程是一次突破。


We have placed victims (more than 7.5 million in our case) and a comprehensive system to guarantee their rights at the center of the solution to the conflict.	我们将受害者（超过750万人）和保障他们的权利的完整体系作为冲突解决方案的核心。


We have also agreed to create a special jurisdiction and tribunal to guarantee that those responsible for international war crimes are investigated, judged, and condemned as stipulated in the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.	我们还同意成立特别法庭以确保犯有国家战争罪行者根据国际刑事法庭罗马规约被调查、裁决和定罪。


This is the first time that a guerrilla movement has agreed to disarm and be subject to transitional justice.	这是历史上第一次游击运动同意解除武装并接受转型正义。


Peace in Colombia will bring real benefits to a world rife with armed conflicts and longing for a success story.	哥伦比亚和平将给充斥着武装冲突、渴望成功案例的世界带来真正的好处。


Despite being the country that has paid the highest cost in the war on drugs – a war that has proven impossible to win – we are still the world’s leading exporter of cocaine.	尽管哥伦比亚是世界上为缉毒战争付出最高昂代价的国家——这场战争不可能打赢——但我们仍然是世界上最大的可卡因出口国。


This unpalatable fact is due mainly to the guerrillas, who have continued to protect their main source of income.	这一令人难受的事实主要就是因为一直在保护主要收入源的游击队。


Peace will change this, because the FARC has agreed to help in the substitution of legal crops for coca production.	和平将改变这一点，因为FARC同意帮助用合法作物代替古柯种植。


Without the threat of attack by the guerrillas, our brave soldiers, policemen, and civilian eradicators can do their job without the threat of snipers or landmines.	没有了游击队袭击的威胁，我们的士兵、警察和文职缉毒人员能够在工作时免受狙击手和地雷威胁。


In terms of the environment, the amount of oil spilled into our rivers and oceans by terrorist attacks on our pipelines is calculated to be more than four million barrels over the last two decades.	从环境角度看，过去二十年中，因恐怖分子袭击我们的管道而流入我们的江河和海洋的石油及估算超过四百万桶。


That is equivalent to 14 times the volume spilled by the Exxon Valdez.	这相当于埃克森巴尔德兹（Exxon Valdez）号泄漏量的14倍。


Furthermore, in a country that has the richest biodiversity in the world per square kilometer, close to 4.4 million hectares of rainforest have been destroyed because of the conflict.	此外，哥伦比亚每平方公里生物多样性为世界之最，但有近440万英亩热带雨林因为这场冲突而被毁。


All this can be stopped – and, I hope, reversed – with the end of the conflict.	所有这些都可以通过结束冲突而被阻止——并且我希望可以被逆转。


That is why we Colombians have been fortunate to count on the support of the region and the world.	因此，我们哥伦比亚人很幸运地获得了地区和世界的支持。


Today, there is not a single country that does not back our peace process.	如今，没有一个国家不支持我们的和平进程。


Proof of this was the resolution submitted to the United Nations Security Council, which unanimously approved an international mission to verify and monitor DDR.	向联合国安理会递交的决议就是明证，安理会一致通过了核实和监督DDR的国际任务。


Despite traditional spoilers, mostly of an internal nature, many of whom oppose the process for political reasons, I am confident that we will put this conflict where it belongs – in the history books.	尽管存在传统干扰者——主要是固有特征，他们中很多人出于政治原因反对和平进程——但我仍相信我们可以让冲突去它应该去的地方——历史书中。


Reshaping the reality around us is our duty to future generations.	改写我们周边的现实是我们对子孙后代的责任。


When we reach an agreement, when we stop killing one another after a half-century of war, we will remove a heavy burden that has stalled our progress and finally enjoy the opportunity to write a new chapter of prosperity and modernity for our country.	当我们达成协议时，当我们在经历了半个世纪的战争后停止彼此相杀时，我们将解除一个扼杀我们的进步的沉重的负担，并最终获得为我们的国家撰写繁荣与现代化的新篇章的机会。


Stop Paying the Polluters	停止为污染者买单


BRUSSELS – “When the winds of change blow,” says an old Chinese proverb, “some build walls, and others build wind mills.”	发自布鲁塞尔——中国有句古话，叫做“当改革之风吹起时，有人筑墙，有人造风车。 ”


These same words closed the meeting in March of the Climate Parliament, a forum in Brussels that brought together legislators from around the world who are committed to the fight against climate change.	这句话成了三月在布鲁塞尔举行的气候议会——它把世界各地致力于应对气候变化的立法者都集中在一起——的结束语。


Parliamentarians, United Nations representatives, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) alike agreed that ending dependency on fossil fuels is one of the most urgent steps needed to combat it effectively.	国会议员、联合国代表以及国际能源署都一致同意结束对化石燃料的依赖是有效抑制气候变化的最迫切举措之一。


The voices from the Climate Parliament join a growing crescendo of influential actors who are speaking out about the need to clean up our energy habits.	这些来自气候议会的呼声也汇入到了那些著名公众人物日渐增强的诉求之中——他们提出我们需要清理自身的能源使用习惯。


During January’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Lord Nicholas Stern, author of a well-known report outlining the measures that the world should take to avoid runaway climate change, admitted that the planet is on track to warm by four degrees Celsius this century.	达沃斯一月世界经济论坛期间，曾撰写过为避免气候变化失控而应采取某些措施的著名报告的尼古拉斯·斯特恩（Nicholas Stern）爵士承认本世纪地球温度有可能上升4摄氏度。


Looking back, Stern said, his report could have been more insistent about the need to take determined action to avoid the catastrophic risks that this level of warming implies.	斯特恩说，回顾过去，他的报告应更加强调我们必须坚决采取行动以避免这种变暖程度所隐含的灾难性风险。


Stern’s sentiment was echoed by Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, who pleaded in favor of stronger climate action to prevent future generations being “roasted, toasted, fried, and grilled.”	斯特恩的观点得到了国际货币基金组织的常务董事克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）的响应。 后者请求加强气候行动以防止我们的后代因全球变暖而被“烘、烤、煎、炸。


And World Bank President Jim Yong Kim announced that his institution would prioritize the fight against climate change and focus on promoting, among other measures, the elimination of subsidies doled out to the fossil-fuel industry.	”而世界银行总裁金勇（Jim Yong Kim）则宣布他的机构会优先考虑对抗气候变化并在其它各类措施中专注于推动取消发放给化石燃料行业的补贴。


With this pledge, the World Bank joined an expanding list of international bodies, including the UN, the IMF, and the OECD, that are calling for an end to such subsidies.	在此承诺之下，世界银行加入到了一个包含联合国、国际货币基金组织和经合组织在内的不断扩大的国际组织群体之中，共同呼吁中止这类补贴。


Globally, we are on track to reach an international climate deal.	在全球范围内，我们有望达成国际气候协议。


But this will still take time, while the need for action will not wait.	但这需要时间，而应对全球变暖却急需立刻行动。


Harnessing the existing broad consensus against fossil-fuel subsidies is possible even in the absence of a legal agreement, and could quickly have a significant positive impact.	即使缺乏法定协议，利用现有的广泛共识来反对化石燃料补贴也是有可能实现的，并且很快就能产生显著的正面影响。


According to the IEA, fossil-fuel subsidies rose by almost 30%, to $523 billion, in 2011.	根据国际能源机构的统计，化石燃料补贴总额在2011年上升了几乎30%，达到5230亿美元。


Meanwhile,the UN Environment Program reports that global investment in renewable energy totaled only $257 billion in 2011.	而联合国环境规划署的数字则表明同年在可再生能源上的全球投资总额仅为2570亿美元。


In other words, we are doing exactly the opposite of what we should be doing.	换句话说，我们现在所做的事情跟应该在做的完全相反。


Support for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources is lagging, while governments around the world spend hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing an incipient catastrophe.	对能源效率和可再生能源的支持非常滞后，而世界各地政府却花费数千亿美元来助长一个即将萌发的灾难。


As European Commissioner for Climate Action, I am particularly keen to see three international financial institutions – the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank – join with their EU and OECD partners to take a lead role in eliminating public support for fossil fuels.	作为欧洲气候行动专员，我特别希望看到三个国际金融机构——欧洲投资银行、欧洲重建和发展银行以及世界银行——加入其伙伴欧盟和经合组织的行列中，在取消对化石燃料的公共支持上起到带头作用。


Together, these three institutions lend more than €130 billion ($168 billion) annually for projects in Europe and beyond, and maintain a strong advisory role in beneficiary countries.	这三个机构每年共给欧洲及欧洲以外的项目发放超过1300亿欧元（折合1680亿美元）贷款，并在受援国保持着强势的顾问角色。


This year provides an especially important opportunity to use this potential for action.	而今年也为它们提供了一个尤其重要的契机来运用影响力推动有利于应对全球变暖的行动。


All three institutions have announced reviews of their lending policies for the energy sector.	这三个机构都发布了针对能源部门的贷款政策回顾。


The outcome will underpin their lending over the next 4-6 years, and send a strong political and financial signal about worldwide commitment to addressing climate change.	这些结论将为它们未来4到6年的贷款行为定调，并对全球应对气候变化的承诺发出一个强烈的政治和金融信号。


Four to six years is also the interval over which climate scientists predict that greenhouse-gas emissions must peak and start to be reduced if the world is to have any hope for a decent future.	4到6年也是一个间隔期，气候专家预测在此期间温室气体的排放必须达到顶峰并随之开始下降——如果我们还想有个美好未来的话。


Multilateral lenders can lead by example by restricting conditions for public financing of coal, the most damaging fossil fuel, and by pressing for greater transparency in reporting on emissions.	多边贷款机构可以通过限制对煤这种最具（气候）破坏性化石燃料的公共融资条件并对排放报告要求更高的透明度来树立榜样。


Encouraging investments in renewable energy and increased energy efficiency will have the added benefit of boosting long-term self-reliance and resilience against the volatility of fossil fuel prices.	鼓励在可再生能源和提高能源效率上的投资将有提高长期能源自给能力并应对化石燃料价格波动性的额外好处。


More broadly, international financial institutions should guide public and private investments alike away from a short-term logic.	从更宏观的角度上来说，国际金融机构应该引导公共和私人投资摆脱短期逻辑。


Supported by a stable, long-term climate-policy framework, public financing can drive the decarbonization of our energy system and our economies.	在一个稳定、长期的气候政策框架支撑之下，公共融资可以推动我们能源系统以及经济的去碳化。


Instead of offering unsustainable and environmentally damaging subsidies for fossil fuels, public finance should encourage the development of new industries and businesses that are emerging in the course of the low-carbon transition.	与其为化石燃料提供不可持续并危害环境的补贴，公共财政应该鼓励发展新兴低碳型的产业和企业。


The industries of the future, which will create jobs that last, are those that will use scarce resources efficiently, and that can pay the real environmental and health costs of the resources that they use.	而能创造可持续工作职位的未来产业将是那些可以有效利用稀缺资源、同时承担得起这些资源背后承载的真实环境和健康成本的产业。


Ending Rogue Fishing	终止流氓捕捞


LONDON – Seafood is by far the most highly traded commodity globally, feeding billions of people worldwide.	伦敦—海鲜是目前全球交易最活跃的商品，是全球数十亿人的食物。


Unfortunately, however, the industry is plagued by illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, which undermines conservation efforts and handicaps honest fishers and businesses that follow the rules.	但是，不幸的是，海鲜业深受非法、不报告、不受监管的捕捞行为的困扰，这些行为破坏了保护措施，伤害了遵守规则的诚实渔民和企业。


It is high time to address the problem.	应该立刻解决这个问题。


Rogue fishing accounts for up to one-fifth of all ocean fish caught globally.	流氓捕捞（rogue fishing）占全球渔获总量高达五分之一。


And while there have been encouraging signs of reform in some countries’ industrial-scale fisheries, the problem remains widespread, discouraging others from following suit and impeding the reform of small-scale fisheries that supply food and livelihoods for millions of families.	尽管某些国家显现出工业规模捕捞改革的迹象，但问题仍然十分普遍，让其他国家不愿跟进，也制约了为数百万家庭提供食物和生计的小规模捕捞的改革。


Rules do exist, but they need to be clearer and more specific, effectively enforced, and implemented across national borders.	规则是存在的，但需要更明确、更具体，需要有效执行，需要跨境实施。


If not, unscrupulous operators will continue to take advantage of the lack of regulation and monitoring, with huge implications for those who depend on coastal fisheries for their sustenance and livelihoods.	若非如此，肆无忌惮的捕捞者极爱你个继续利用监管和监控缺位，给仰仗海洋渔获生存和生活的人造成巨大影响。


A recent study found that 20-32% of seafood imported into the United States was likely from illegal, unreported, and unregulated sources.	一项最新研究发现，在美国进口的海鲜中，20—30%可能来自非法、不报告和不受监管的来源。


This alone accounts for 4-16% of the value of the total illegal fish catch worldwide, which has an estimated value of $15-23 billion a year.	这占全球非法渔获总价值（据估计可达每年150—230亿美元）的4—16%。


Collaboration among the US, the European Union, and Japan has the potential to underpin great strides in addressing the problem.	美国、欧盟和日本如果采取合作，将有可能极大推动这一问题的解决。


The US imports more than 90% of its seafood.	美国海鲜90%以上依靠进口。


Japan is the second-largest seafood importer after the US.	日本是仅次于美国的第二大海鲜进口国。


And the EU is the world’s largest single market for seafood products, importing about 60% of the fish it consumes.	而欧盟是全球最大的海鲜产品单一市场，其消费的鱼类中有60%来自进口。


The potential power of these three markets’ joint action is immense.	这三个市场采取联合行动的潜在力量是巨大的。


In late 2011, the EU and the US agreed to collaborate to combat illicit fishing.	2011年底，欧盟和美国同意合作打击违法捕捞。


A little less than a year later, the EU and Japan agreed to prevent imports of illegally caught seafood, share information, and work together at regional fisheries-management organizations.	不到一年后，欧盟和日本同意禁止进口非法捕获的海鲜、共享信息、在地区捕捞管理组织中进行合作。


They all agreed to encourage other countries to ratify and implement the Port State Measures Agreement (PSMA), which will make it harder for dishonest fishing operations to operate.	它们都同意鼓励其他国家批准和实施港口国措施协议（Port State Measures Agreement，PSMA），该协议将增加不诚实捕捞作业的难度。


Illicit fishing operations rely on a range of tactics and loopholes in international law to get their products to market.	违法捕捞作业依赖各种策略和国际法的漏洞才能让产品进入市场。


Ports known for lax enforcement or limited inspection capacity are a prime pathway for unethical fishermen and companies to move their catch from ship to shelf.	以执法松散或检查能力有限出名的港口是不道德渔民和公司将非法渔获脱手的主要途径。


Adopted in 2009 by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the PSMA requires parties to implement stricter controls on foreign-flagged fishing vessels.	PSMA于2009年由联合国粮农组织实施，它要求各方对外籍渔船进行更加严格的管控。


To date, 13 countries have ratified the agreement; another 12 must do so for it to enter into force and be globally effective.	迄今为止，13个国家签署了该协议； 要让它产生效力并在全球生效，还需要其他12国的签字。


Encouragingly, rogue fishing is no longer viewed as an orphan policy issue in some countries.	令人振奋的是，在一些国家，流氓捕捞不再被视为孤儿政策问题。


In March, the US Presidential Task Force on Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing and Seafood Fraud released an “all of government” action plan.	3月份，美国非法、不报告和不受监管捕捞行为和海鲜欺诈总统特别任务小组公布了一份“全体政府”行动计划。


The fact that the issue made it to the desk of the US president underscores the need for governments to mobilize their resources and collaborate internationally.	这一问题已经惊动美国总统，这一事实凸显出各国政府有必要动员资源并进行国际合作。


A variety of approaches is called for.	我们需要各种方针。


The EU’s regulations are perhaps the strongest suite of measures to stop illicitly caught fish from entering the market.	欧盟监管也许是阻止非法渔获进入市场的最强有力的措施组合。


Early implementation shows great promise.	早期实施表明希望巨大。


European regulators have already introduced sophisticated monitoring and surveillance programs, blocked market access to countries with a record of illegal fishing, penalized European rogue operators, and helped support “yellow or red carded” countries reform their fisheries laws.	欧洲监管者已经引入了成熟的监控和监督计划，阻止铀非法捕捞的国家进入市场，惩罚欧洲流氓渔民，并帮助支持“红黄牌国家”改革渔业法。


The EU, Japan, and the US would be even more effective if they aligned their policies to prevent criminals from accessing their markets and enabled legitimate operators to benefit from a “supercharged” level of access.	如果欧盟、日本和美国能够将各自政策联合起来阻止犯罪分子进入它们的市场、让合法渔民从“超然”进入市场地位获益，其阻止非法捕捞的效果还会更好。


Working together could enable the use of affordable, sophisticated technology for seafood traceability – data and intelligence gathering that helps pinpoint exactly where seafood comes from, and when and by whom it was caught.	齐心协力能让我们拥有廉价成熟海鲜追踪的技术——即收集数据和情报以帮助精确定位海鲜来自哪里、在何时由谁捕获。


Such efforts – for example, the electronic documentation scheme for the Atlantic bluefin tuna catch– represent one of the most effective tools to eliminate illicit fishing.	这些措施——比如大西洋蓝鳍金枪鱼捕捞电子档案制度——是消灭非法捕捞的最有效工具之一。


Eliminating rogue fishing will help replenish marine life and secure food and livelihoods for billions of people.	消灭流氓捕捞有助于恢复海洋生命，保证数十亿人的食物和生活安全。


This must be accompanied by increased efforts, from the Arctic to the Antarctic, to protect key species affected by fishing practices and establish fully protected marine reserves or “regeneration zones” to help restock and restore habitats.	这一措施必须辅之以更多的措施，从北冰洋到南极洲，人们都必须保护受捕捞行为影响的重要物种，建立获得充分保护的海洋保储备或“再生区”，以帮助恢复种群数量和重建栖息地。


Countries must also enact and implement laws ending overfishing within domestic and international waters.	各国还必须制定和实施法律阻止在国内和国际水域过度捕捞。


Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing is a problem that can be solved through leadership, action, and international cooperation.	非法、不报告和不受监管的捕捞是一个可以通过领导力、行动和国际合作解决的问题。


We are pleased to see Chile – which is hosting this year’s Our Ocean Conference – demonstrate leadership and commitment to action by ratifying the PSMA and standing up to illicit fishing operations.	我们很高兴地看到智利——今年我们的海洋会议（Our Ocean Conference）东道国——表现出领导力和行动力，签署了PSMA并坚决与非法捕捞行为作斗争。


We remain optimistic that others will continue to take the steps needed to end the scourge of rogue fishing and work together to regenerate ocean life globally.	我们仍然乐观地认为，其他国家也将陆续采取必要的行动以阻止流氓捕捞之害，并合作重建全球海洋生物。


Ending Religious Violence in the Middle East	结束中东的宗教暴力


FEZ – The escalation of radicalism, violence, and civil wars in the Middle East since the so-called Arab Spring revolts began in 2010 has exacted a massive toll in human lives and welfare.	费斯—自2010年所谓的阿拉伯之春暴动开始以来，中东激进主义、暴力和内战的升级已经造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。


The need to build effective states that support peace, provide greater opportunity and prosperity, and protect human rights could not be more urgent.	建设支持和平、提供更大的机会和繁荣、保护人道权利的高效国家的需要已是万分紧迫。


Already, the violence that has surged in the last few years has left more than 180,000 Iraqis and 470,000 Syrians dead.	目前，过去几年中所出现的暴力已经导致180,000伊拉克人和470,000叙利亚人丧生。


Moreover, 6.5 million Syrians have been internally displaced, and another 4.8 million driven from the country altogether.	此外，650万叙利亚人在国内流离失所，另有480万人被迫逃离。


They have often been tortured in prisons and humiliated in refugee camps.	他们在监狱中遭受酷刑，在难民营中遭受屈辱。


An estimated 70-80% of the victims are civilians, most of them women and children.	据估计，70-80%的受害者为平民，其中大部分是妇女和儿童。


In fact, according to the Syrian Center for Policy Research, half of the refugees and internally displaced people are under the age of 18.	事实上，据叙利亚政策研究中心（Syrian Center for Policy Research）的数据，在叙利亚国内流离失所的人中有一半年龄不到18岁。


This has a major impact on their future prospects.	他们的未来前景已经遭到巨大的影响。


UNICEF reports that 2.1 million children in Syria and 700,000 Syrian refugee children are out of school.	联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF）报道，210万叙利亚儿童和700,000叙利亚难民儿童辍学。


A total of 80,000 child refugees in Jordan lack access to an education.	共有80,000身处约旦的儿童难民无法接受教育。


But all of these human costs are symptoms of a deeper problem – and, contrary to popular belief, that problem is not Islam.	但所有这些人道损失只不过是更深层次的问题的症候——与流行的信念相反，这个问题并非伊斯兰教。


The fact that radical Islamists or jihadists are Muslim does not mean that their religion, not to mention their ethnicity or culture, is inherently violent.	激进伊斯兰或圣战主义者是穆斯林，这一事实并不意味着他们的宗教、更不意味着他们的种族和文化天生就是暴力的。


Watching Western news, it is easy to see why so many blame Islam.	看着西方新闻，你很容易看出为何如此多人谴责伊斯兰教。


From the brutality of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq to the terrorist attacks carried out by al-Qaeda to the stoning of adulterous women under Sharia law in Afghanistan, Middle East violence is almost always attributed to the religion.	从伊斯兰国在叙利亚和伊拉克的暴行，到基地组织发动的恐怖袭击，再到阿富汗根据伊斯兰教法对私通妇女所采取的石刑，中东暴力几乎总是可以归因于伊斯兰教。


As a result, Islam is often viewed primarily as a threat.	于是，伊斯兰教常常主要被视为是一种威胁。


But, as the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor explains, the real threat is not Islam itself, but “block thinking.”	但是，加拿大哲学家查尔斯·泰勒（Charles Taylor）解释道，真正的威胁不是伊斯兰教本身，而是“块思维”（block thinking）。


Islamic extremists comprise less than 0.5% of the global Muslim population, yet their worldview dominates media coverage not just of Islam, but also of political developments in the Middle East.	伊斯兰极端分子只占全球穆斯林人口的不到0. 5%，但他们的世界观主宰者媒体报道——不光是对伊斯兰教的报道，也包括对中东政治发展的报道。


By erasing the huge differences among Muslims, such coverage reinforces a single, simplistic perception of Islam.	这些报道抹杀穆斯林之间的巨大差异，强化了一种单一的、简化的对伊斯兰教的认识。


That is block thinking.	这就是块思维。


And, as Michael Griffin documents in his book Islamic State: Rewriting History, such thinking is gaining ground in the United States and Europe.	此外，迈克尔·格里芬（Michael Griffin）在他的著作《伊斯兰国：重写历史》（Islamic State: Rewriting History）指出，这样的思维正在美国和欧洲得势。


As a result, many have embraced Samuel Huntington’s theory of a “clash of civilizations,” which assumes that Islam is at odds with modernity.	结果，许多人接受了塞缪尔·亨廷顿（Samuel Huntongton）的“文明的冲突”理论，该理论认为伊斯兰教与现代性相悖。


But that assumption ignores the ideas and impact of Islam’s early reformers – figures like Muhammad Abduh and Jamaleddin al-Afghani – who continue to influence Muslims everywhere.	但这样的观点忽视了伊斯兰教的早期改革家——如穆罕默德·阿卜杜（Muhammad Abduh）和贾马勒丁·阿富汗尼（Jamaleddin al-Afghani）——的影响，他们一直在影响世界各地的穆斯林。


The most lasting impact of the first reformist wave was the establishment of a salafi (conservative traditionalist) movement, which came to regard the modern state as a means to improve the lot of Muslims.	第一波改革浪潮延续最久的影响是成立了沙拉菲（salafi，保守传统主义）运动，它认为现代国家是改善大部分穆斯林境况的一种方法。


Today, Muslim thinkers – such as Iran’s Abdolkarim Soroush, Tunisia’s Tahar Haddad, Pakistan’s Fazlur Rahman, Morocco’s Fatema Mernissi, Egypt’s Qasim Amin, and Sudan’s Mahmud Muhammad Taha – continue to explore the connections between Islamic thought and modern values.	如今，穆斯林思想家——如伊朗的阿卜杜尔卡里姆·索罗什（Abdolkarim Soroush）、突尼斯的塔哈尔·哈达德（Tahar Haddad）、巴基斯坦的法兹鲁尔·拉曼（Fazlur Rahman）、摩洛哥的费特马·梅尔尼西（Fatema Mernisssi）、埃及的卡西姆·阿明（Qasim Amin）、苏丹的马哈茂德·穆罕默德·塔哈（Mahmud Muhammad Taha）等——仍在探索伊斯兰思想与现代价值观之间的联系。


While radical Islamists strongly oppose their work, these thinkers have had a huge influence on generations of Muslim intellectuals worldwide.	尽管激进伊斯兰主义者强烈反对他们的工作，但这些思想家对全世界一代又一代穆斯林知识分子产生了巨大影响。


None of this is to say that religion does not play a role in Middle East violence.	所有这些都不是说宗教在中东暴力中没有起作用。


On the contrary, such violence – including sexual assault and arbitrary deprivation of individual and public freedoms – is widespread and multifaceted, owing to the combination of religious beliefs, cultural tradition, race and ethnicity, war, and politics that influences it.	相反，这些暴力——包括性侵害和任意剥夺个人和公共自由——无处不在、形式多样，它们是宗教信仰、文化传统、种族和民族、战争以及政治综合影响的产物。


Even the recruitment of jihadist fighters can be viewed as a form of religion-based violence, much like child marriage and honor killings.	甚至招募圣战战士也可以视为一种基于宗教的暴力形式，与童婚和荣誉杀戮一样。


But none of that means that Islam is inherently violent.	但所有这些都不意味着伊斯兰教天生暴力。


Resorting to fuzzy – and often bigoted – cultural, religious, or ethnic explanations is a recipe for ill-advised action, or no action at all.	诉诸模糊——并且常常偏隘——的文化、宗教或种族解释是有失明智的举动，或者说不如不动。


What the Middle East needs are effective social and economic strategies and policies that tackle the complex non-religious reasons behind the violence – and its decidedly non-religious effects.	中东需要的是有效的社会和经济战略和政策，以解决暴力背后的复杂的非宗教因素——及其绝非宗教性的影响。


While cultural, ethnic, and religious factors may need to be considered, they are not the main causes of unemployment and marginalization.	文化、种族和宗教因素也应该被考虑，但它们不是失业和边缘化的主要原因。


Middle Eastern governments must commit to pursuing bold and creative policies that address the inadequate education, high unemployment, and pervasive corruption that are helping to fuel violence and unrest in the region.	中东政府必须致力于采取果断的创新政策，解决教育不足、事业高企和普遍腐败的问题，这些问题助长了该地区的暴力和动乱。


Such efforts should aim to advance democratization, economic development, and the emergence of a strong civil society and progressive media.	这些措施应该着眼于推进民主化、经济发展和培养强大的公民社会和进步媒体。


The key is not to “Islamize” every issue, but rather to develop real policy solutions that meet people’s needs.	关键是不要事事“伊斯兰化”，而是制定符合人民需要的真正的政策方案。


Education is of course critical to success: school curricula must become more inclusive, to broaden students’ knowledge of religions and cultures.	教育当然是成功的关键：学校课程必须更加包容，扩大学生的宗教和文化知识。


More broadly, schools should also embody the separation of church and state – and well-protected religious freedom – that will be needed to end religion-based violence in the Middle East.	更广泛地讲，学校还应该采取教育和国家分离的政策——并大力保护宗教自由——这是结束中东基于宗教的暴力的必要条件。


Large-scale violence like that occurring in the Middle East causes devastating harm to individuals, erodes the capital base, hampers productivity, and undermines economic growth.	发生在中东的大规模暴力带来了巨大的个人伤害，破坏了资本基础，阻碍了生产力发展，也破坏了经济增长。


Its impact on political, social, and economic structures needs to be addressed, and the capacity of the state to do so should not be underestimated or overlooked.	其对政治、社会和经济结构的影响应该予以修复，而国家修复影响的能力不应该被低估和忽视。


But so long as the state frames or seeks to legitimize its policies in religious terms, the violence will not stop.	但只要国家框定于或寻求在宗教条例中实现政策合法化，暴力就不会停止。


Ending Nuclear Evil	结束核罪恶


CAPE TOWN – Eliminating nuclear weapons is the democratic wish of the world’s people.	开普敦——消灭核武器是世界人民的民主愿望。


Yet no nuclear-armed country currently appears to be preparing for a future without these terrifying devices.	但目前所有核国家似乎都尚未准备好在未来消除这些可怕的装置。


In fact, all are squandering billions of dollars on modernization of their nuclear forces, making a mockery of United Nations disarmament pledges.	事实上，所有核国家都为实现核力量现代化豪掷数十亿美元，从而导致联合国裁军承诺成为嘲笑的对象。


If we allow this madness to continue, the eventual use of these instruments of terror seems all but inevitable.	如果我们容忍这样的疯狂继续下去，这些恐怖武器的最终应用似乎是不可避免的。


The nuclear power crisis at Japan’s Fukushima power plant has served as a dreadful reminder that events thought unlikely can and do happen.	日本福岛电厂的核能危机以残酷的方式提醒人们，被认为不太可能的事情也是会发生的。


It has taken a tragedy of great proportions to prompt some leaders to act to avoid similar calamities at nuclear reactors elsewhere in the world.	这次大规模的悲剧之后，某些领导人已经采取行动，避免世界其他地方的核反应堆发生类似灾难。


But it must not take another Hiroshima or Nagasaki – or an even greater disaster – before they finally wake up and recognize the urgent necessity of nuclear disarmament.	但他们不应等到又一次广岛或长崎（甚至更大的灾难）发生后才最终警醒，意识到核裁军的迫切需要。


This week, the foreign ministers of five nuclear-armed countries – the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China – will meet in Paris to discuss progress in implementing the nuclear-disarmament commitments that they made at last year’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference.	本周，美、俄、英、法、中等五大有核国家外长将齐聚巴黎，就去年在《核不扩散条约》审议大会上所做核裁军承诺的执行状况进行探讨。


It will be a test of their resolve to transform the vision of a future free of nuclear arms into reality.	这次会议将考验他们实现未来无核愿景的坚定程度。


If they are serious about preventing the spread of these monstrous weapons – and averting their use – they will work energetically and expeditiously to eliminate them completely.	如果真心希望防止这些可怕武器扩散，避免它们的使用，五大有核国家就会为迅速彻底消灭核武器而精诚合作。


One standard must apply to all countries: zero.	核武器零标准必须适用于所有国家。


Nuclear arms are wicked, regardless of who possesses them.	核武器是邪恶的化身，无论它们由谁掌控。


The unspeakable human suffering that they inflict is the same whatever flag they may bear.	无论印有哪国国旗，它们所带来的无以言表的人类痛苦都不会发生变化。


So long as these weapons exist, the threat of their use – either by accident or through an act of sheer madness – will remain.	只要这些武器存在，那么它们因为偶然或纯粹疯狂而被使用的可能性就不会消除。


We must not tolerate a system of nuclear apartheid, in which it is considered legitimate for some states to possess nuclear arms but patently unacceptable for others to seek to acquire them.	我们不应容忍核种族隔离制度，上述制度允许某些国家拥有核武器，但显然不接受其他国家获取核武器的意图。


Such a double standard is no basis for peace and security in the world.	如此双重标准显然不是世界和平与安全的基础。


The NPT is not a license for the five original nuclear powers to cling to these weapons indefinitely.	《核不扩散条约》并非五大原有核国家无限期持有核武器的执照。


The International Court of Justice has affirmed that they are legally obliged to negotiate in good faith for the complete elimination of their nuclear forces.	国际法庭已经确认它们必须履行善意谈判、彻底消除核武器的法律义务。


The New START agreement between the US and Russia, while a step in the right direction, will only skim the surface off the former Cold War foes’ bloated nuclear arsenals – which account for 95% of the global total.	尽管新订立的美俄《削减战略核武器条约》（START）向正确的方向迈出了重要步骤，但较之前冷战对手满满当当的核武库（占全球核武器总量的95%）而言也只是九牛一毛。


Furthermore, these and other countries’ modernization activities cannot be reconciled with their professed support for a world free of nuclear weapons.	此外，上述及其他国家核现代化行为与它们自称支持无核世界的许诺并不相符。


It is deeply troubling that the US has allocated $185 billion to augment its nuclear stockpile over the next decade, on top of the ordinary annual nuclear-weapons budget of more than $50 billion.	美国在年度常规的500亿美元核武预算之外追加1850亿美元扩充核武库存的做法非常令人担忧。


Just as unsettling is the Pentagon’s push for the development of nuclear-armed drones – H-bombs deliverable by remote control.	同样令人不安的是五角大楼力促研发装配核武器的无人驾驶飞机——此类飞机可以通过远程控制投掷氢弹。


Russia, too, has unveiled a massive nuclear-weapons modernization plan, which includes the deployment of various new delivery systems.	俄国也宣布了一项大规模核武器现代化计划，其中包括部署若干新型运载系统。


British politicians, meanwhile, are seeking to renew their navy’s aging fleet of Trident submarines – at an estimated cost of £76 billion ($121 billion).	与此同时，英国政界人士也在寻求更新海军老化的三叉戟潜艇编队，该项目的预计开支高达760亿英镑（合1210亿美元）。


In doing so, they are passing up an historic opportunity to take the lead on nuclear disarmament.	在采取上述行动的同时，他们放弃了领导核裁军的历史性机会。


Every dollar invested in bolstering a country’s nuclear arsenal is a diversion of resources from its schools, hospitals, and other social services, and a theft from the millions around the globe who go hungry or are denied access to basic medicines.	投资于国家核武库的每一块美元都在分流学校、医院和其他社会服务本应分得的资源，偷走全球成百上千万人的温饱和基本医疗服务。


Instead of investing in weapons of mass annihilation, governments must allocate resources towards meeting human needs.	政府不应把资金投向制造血光之灾的武器，而应把资源投向满足人类的需求。


The only obstacle we face in abolishing nuclear weapons is a lack of political will, which can – and must – be overcome.	消除核武器领域的唯一障碍是缺乏政治意愿，上述问题我们能够、而且应当克服。


Two-thirds of UN member states have called for a nuclear-weapons convention similar to existing treaties banning other categories of particularly inhumane and indiscriminate weapons, from biological and chemical arms to anti-personnel land mines and cluster munitions.	三分之二的联合国成员呼吁签订与现有条约相似的核武条约，特别取缔包括生物、化学、人员杀伤地雷和集束炸弹在内的其他类型的非人道和肆意杀伤性武器。


Such a treaty is feasible and must be urgently pursued.	这样的协定不仅可行，而且已经非常紧迫。


It is true that nuclear weapons cannot be uninvented, but that does not mean that nuclear disarmament is an impossible dream.	核武器的确已经存在，但这并不意味着核裁军只是个不可能实现的梦想。


My own country, South Africa, gave up its nuclear arsenal in the 1990’s, realizing it was better off without these weapons.	我自己的国家南非就在20世纪90年代放弃了核武器，我们意识到没有这些武器可以过得更好。


Around the same time, the newly independent states of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine voluntarily relinquished their nuclear arms, and then joined the NPT.	大约在同一时期，白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰等新独立国家也自愿放弃了掌握的核武器，加入到《核不扩散条约》当中。


Other countries have abandoned nuclear-weapons programs, recognizing that nothing good could possibly come from them.	还有其他国家也已放弃核武器计划，认识到核武计划不可能产生积极作用。


Global stockpiles have dropped from 68,000 warheads at the height of the Cold War to 20,000 today.	全球核武器库存已经从冷战高峰��的68,000枚核弹头下降到了今天的20,000枚左右。


In time, every government will come to accept the basic inhumanity of threatening to obliterate entire cities with nuclear weapons.	最终，所有政府都会意识到用核武器威胁毁灭整座城市在根本上具有非人道主义的特征。


They will work to achieve a world in which such weapons are no more – where the rule of law, not the rule of force, reigns supreme, and cooperation is seen as the best guarantor of international peace.	他们会齐心协力创造一个没有核武器的世界，在上述世界中法治而非暴力才是至高无上的准则，合作才是实现国际和平最好的担保。


But such a world will be possible only if people everywhere rise up and challenge the nuclear madness.	但只有全世界民众敢于挑战核疯狂行径，这样的世界才能最终变成现实。


Ending the Syrian War	结束叙利亚战争


NEW YORK – Syria is currently the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophe and most dangerous geopolitical hotspot.	纽约—叙利亚目前是全世界最大的人道主义灾难和最危险的地缘政治热点。


The Syrian people are caught in a bloodbath, with more than 400,000 dead and ten million displaced.	叙利亚人民遭遇了一场血腥屠杀，400,000多人丧生，一千万人流离失所。


Violent jihadist groups backed by outside patrons mercilessly ravage the country and prey on the population.	由外部势力支持的暴力圣战组织无情地蹂躏着这个国家，鱼肉这个国家的人民。


All parties to the conflict – President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the anti-Assad forces supported by the United States and its allies, and the Islamic State – have committed, and continue to commit, serious war crimes.	所有冲突各方——总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权、美国及其盟友所支持的反阿萨德力量，以及伊斯兰国——都犯有并且继续犯着严重的战争罪行。


It is time for a solution.	应该寻求解决之道。


But such a solution must be based on a transparent and realistic account of what caused the war in the first place.	但解决方案必须建立在首先透明务实地找出战争根源的基础上。


The chronology is as follows.	按时间记录，事情是这样的。


In February 2011, peaceful protests were staged in Syria’s major cities, amid the region-wide phenomenon dubbed the “Arab Spring.”	2011年2月，叙利亚主要城市爆发和平示威，这是遍及整个地区、被称为“阿拉伯之春”的现象的一部分。


The Assad regime reacted with a shifting mix of violent repression (shooting at demonstrators) and offers of reform.	阿萨德政权对此的反应是暴力镇压（向示威者开枪）和改革双管齐下。


Soon, the violence escalated.	很快，暴力升级。


Assad’s opponents accused the regime of using force against civilians without restraint, while the government pointed to the deaths of soldiers and policeman as evidence of violent jihadists among the protestors.	阿萨德的反对者指责当局不知克制地对平民使用武力，而政府宣称士兵和警察丧生证明了示威者中间有暴力圣战分子。


It seems likely that as early as March or April 2011, Sunni anti-regime fighters and arms started to enter Syria from neighboring countries.	可能早至2011年3月或4月，逊尼派反政府武装开始从邻国进入叙利亚。


Many eyewitness accounts tell of foreign jihadists engaging in violent attacks on policemen.	许多目击者报告称有外国圣战者参与针对警察的暴力袭击。


(Such accounts are, however, hard to confirm, especially after almost five years.)	（但是，这些报告难以核实，特别是在过去近五年后的今天）。


The US and its regional allies tried to nudge Assad from power in the spring of 2011, thinking that he would fall quickly like Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.	2011年春，美国及其地区盟友试图将阿萨德赶下权力宝座，认为他将像埃及的穆巴拉克和突尼斯的本·阿里一样迅速下台。


Many observers assert that Qatar funded an increase in anti-regime activity within Syria and used the Doha-based broadcaster Al Jazeera to boost anti-Assad sentiment worldwide, though such claims are hard to pin down definitively.	许多观察者认为卡塔尔资助了叙利亚反政府活动，并利用位于多哈的半岛电视台煽动全世界反阿萨德情绪，尽管这些主张难以确认。


The US imposed a tightening noose of trade and financial sanctions on the regime.	美国加紧了对阿萨德政权的贸易和金融制裁。


The Brookings Institution, a bellwether of US official policy, called for Assad’s ouster, and anti-Assad propaganda in the US media soared.	美国外交政策的指标——布鲁金斯研究所呼吁罢免阿萨德，美国媒体大肆宣传反阿萨德的内容。


(Until then, Assad was considered in the US media to be a relatively benign, albeit authoritarian, ruler, and then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton noted as late as March 2011 that many in the US Congress regarded Assad as a reformer.)	（此前，阿萨德在美国媒体的形象一直是相对温和的极权统治者，时任国务卿希拉里·克林顿在2011年3月时仍说，许多美国国会议员认为阿萨德是改革者。 ）


The launch of the war can be dated to August 18, 2011, when President Barack Obama and Clinton declared that “Assad must go.”	开战可以追溯到2011年8月18日，美国总统奥巴马和克林顿宣布“阿萨德必须下台”。


Up to that point, the violence was still containable.	那时，暴力仍是可控的。


Total deaths, including both civilians and combatants, ran perhaps to around 2,900 (according to one tally by regime opponents).	总死亡人数（包括平民和战斗人员）也许在2,900左右（根据一项反对派的统计）。


After August, the death rate soared.	8月份之后，死亡人数开始飙升。


It is sometimes claimed that the US did not act vigorously at this point.	时不时有人说，当时美国并未采取强力行动。


Obama’s political foes generally attack him for having taken too little action, not too much.	总体而言，奥巴马的政敌抨击他没有采取什么行动，而不是采取了过多的行动。


But the US did in fact act to topple Assad, albeit mostly covertly and through allies, especially Saudi Arabia and Turkey (though neither country needed much prodding to intervene).	但美国确实行动起来推翻阿萨德，尽管大部分行动为秘密进行并且通过盟友完成，特别是沙特阿拉伯和土耳其（尽管两国不需要刺激就会干预叙利亚）。


The CIA and Saudi Arabia covertly coordinated their actions.	中央情报局和沙特阿拉伯秘密地协调着它们的行动。


Of course, the chronology of the war does not explain it.	当然，理顺叙利亚战争发展顺序不等于解释了这场战争。


For that, we need to examine the motivations of the key actors.	要想提供解释，我们需要考察关键行动方的动机。


First and foremost, the war in Syria is a proxy war, involving mainly the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran.	首先，叙利亚战争是一场代理战争，牵涉到的各方主要是美国、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和伊朗。


The US and its allies, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, started the war in 2011 in order to overthrow Assad’s regime.	美国及其盟友沙特阿拉伯和土耳其2011年发动这场战争是为了颠覆阿萨德政权。


The US alliance was met with escalating counterforce by Russia and Iran, whose Lebanese proxy army Hezbollah is fighting alongside Assad’s government.	美国阵营受到了俄罗斯和伊朗的日渐加强的反制，后两者的黎巴嫩代理军真主党与阿萨德政府并肩作战。


The US interest in overthrowing Assad’s regime was precisely its reliance on Iranian and Russian backing.	美国之所以对推翻阿萨德政权感兴趣，正是因为后者仰仗伊朗和俄罗斯的支持。


Removing Assad, US security officials believed, would weaken Iran, undermine Hezbollah, and roll back Russia’s geopolitical reach.	解决掉阿萨德，美国安全官员相信，能够削弱伊朗，打击真主党，遏制俄罗斯的地缘政治势力范围。


America’s allies, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, were interested in replacing Assad’s Alawite regime in Syria with a Sunni-led regime (Alawites are a branch of Shia Islam).	美国的盟友，包括土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔，则意在用逊尼派领导的政权取代阿萨德的阿拉维派政权（阿拉维派是什叶派的分支）。


This, they believed, would also weaken their regional competitor, Iran, and curtail Shia influence in the Middle East more generally.	它们相信，这也将削弱它们的地区竞争对手伊朗，并在总体上进一步遏制什叶派在中东的影响。


In believing that Assad would be easily overthrown, the US – not for the first time – was relying on its own propaganda.	认定阿萨德很容易推翻，美国——这不是第一次——依赖其自身的宣传。


The regime faced deep opposition, but also had considerable internal support.	阿萨德政权面临的深深的反对，但也拥有大量内部支持。


More important, the regime had powerful allies, notably Iran and Russia.	更重要的是，阿萨德政权拥有强大的盟友，主要是伊朗和俄罗斯。


It was naive to believe that neither would respond.	认为伊朗和俄罗斯不会有所反应是幼稚的。


The public should appreciate the dirty nature of the CIA-led fight.	公众应该认识到中央情报局领导的战斗的肮脏性质。


The US and its allies flooded Syria with Sunni jihadists, just as the US had flooded Afghanistan in the 1980s with Sunni jihadists (the Mujahideen) that later became Al Qaeda.	美国及其盟友向叙利亚派出大量逊尼派圣战分子，正如20世纪80年代美国向阿富汗派出大量圣战分子（圣战游击队）并在日后演变为基地组织。


Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and the US have regularly backed some of the most violent jihadist groups in a cynical miscalculation that these proxies would do their dirty work and then somehow be pushed aside.	沙特阿拉伯、土耳其、卡塔尔以及美国时不时支持某些最暴力的圣战组织，犬儒主义地错误地计划让这些代理人替它们干脏活，然后再把他们踢出局。


According to the US and European mainstream media, Russia’s military intervention in Syria is treacherous and expansionist.	据美国和欧洲主流媒体的说法，俄罗斯军事干预叙利亚是狡诈的扩张主义。


The truth is different.	事实并非如此。


The US is not allowed under the UN Charter to organize an alliance, fund mercenaries, and smuggle heavy weapons to overthrow another country’s government.	根据联合国宪章，美国无权组织联盟，招募雇佣兵和走私重武器以推翻另一个国家的政府。


Russia in this case is reacting, not acting.	从这个角度讲，俄罗斯是在应对（react），而非行动（act）。


It is responding to US provocations against its ally.	它是在应对美国对其盟友的挑衅。


Ending the war requires adherence to six principles.	结束战争需要坚守六个原则。


First, the US should cease both overt and covert operations to overthrow Syria’s government.	首先，美国应该结束公开和隐蔽的颠覆阿萨德政府的活动。


Second, the UN Security Council should implement the ceasefire now under negotiation, calling on all countries, including the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and Iran, to stop arming and funding military forces within Syria.	其次，联合国安理会应该实施目前正在谈判中的停火，呼吁所有国家，包括美国、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其、卡塔尔和伊朗在内，停止武装和资金支持叙利亚境内的军事力量。


Third, all paramilitary activities should cease, including those of so-called “moderates” backed by the US.	第四，所有准军事活动都应该停止，包括所谓的受美国支持的“温和派”的活动。


Fourth, the US and Russia – and, indeed, the UN Security Council – should hold Syria’s government strictly responsible to desist from punitive actions against regime opponents.	第四，美国和俄罗斯——事实上，还有联合国安理会——应该要求叙利亚政府严格停止针对政权反对者的惩罚行为。


Fifth, the political transition should take place gradually and with confidence building on all sides, rather than through an arbitrary, destabilizing rush to “free elections.”	第五，政治转型应该逐渐进行，并辅之以各方信心建设，而不是通过武断匆忙地进行的“自由选举”。


Finally, the Gulf States, Turkey, and Iran should be pressed to negotiate face to face on a regional framework that can ensure lasting peace.	最后，应该向海湾国家、土耳其和伊朗施压，让它们面对面地就能够确保持续和平的地区框架展开谈判。


Arabs, Turks, and Iranians have all lived with each other for millennia.	阿拉伯人、土耳其人和伊朗人已经共同生活几千年。


They, not the outside powers, should lead the way to a stable order in the region.	它们，而不是外部势力，才应该是引领该地区走向稳定的力量。


Ending the Financial Arms Race	结束金融军备竞赛


CAMBRIDGE – People often ask if regulators and legislators have fixed the flaws in the financial system that took the world to the brink of a second Great Depression.	美国剑桥— 人们经常问，监管者和立法者有没有修复几乎将世界打入第二场大萧条的金融系统漏洞。


The short answer is no.	简短的回答是没有。


Yes, the chances of an immediate repeat of the acute financial meltdown of 2008 are much reduced by the fact that most investors, regulators, consumers, and even politicians will remember their financial near-death experience for quite some time.	是的，大部分投资者、监管者、消费者甚至政客将在相当长的时间内铭记金融濒死的体验，因此像2008年剧烈崩盘这样的事件在短期内不会重演。


As a result, it could take a while for recklessness to hit full throttle again.	完全重启鲁莽模式还得等一段时间。


But, otherwise, little has fundamentally changed.	但是，另一方面，并没有发生多少根本性改变。


Legislation and regulation produced in the wake of the crisis have mostly served as a patch to preserve the status quo.	危机产生的立法和监管大体上都是为了维持现状。


Politicians and regulators have neither the political courage nor the intellectual conviction needed to return to a much clearer and more straightforward system.	政客和监管者既没有政治勇气，也没有明智观点，而这些都是重返更清晰、更简单系统的必要条件。


In his recent speech to the annual, elite central-banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the Bank of England’s Andy Haldane made a forceful plea for a return to simplicity in banking regulation.	在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔举行的精英央行年会演讲中，英格兰银行的安迪·霍尔丹（Andy Haldane）大声疾呼要求回归简单银行监管。


Haldane rightly complained that banking regulation has evolved from a small number of very specific guidelines to mind-numbingly complicated statistical algorithms for measuring risk and capital adequacy.	霍尔丹正确地指出，银行监管已从为数较少的极为具体的指导方针转变为计算风险和资本充足性的复杂得令人头晕的统计算术了。


Legislative complexity is growing exponentially in parallel.	立法复杂性也在显著增加。


In the United States, the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 was just 37 pages and helped to produce financial stability for the greater part of seven decades.	在美国，1933年的格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案只有37页，而该法在70年的时间里保证了更大范围的金融稳定。


The recent Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is 848 pages, and requires regulatory agencies to produce several hundred additional documents giving even more detailed rules.	而当前的多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案有848页，监管机构还得��此基础上增加几百份文档以规定更为详细的规则。


Combined, the legislation appears on track to run 30,000 pages.	把所有相关规定都加起来，该法案总规模将接近30000页。


As Haldane notes, even the celebrated “Volcker rule,” intended to build a better wall between more mundane commercial banking and riskier proprietary bank trading, has been hugely watered down as it grinds through the legislative process.	正如霍尔丹所指出的，即使是著名的“沃克尔规则”——在较平稳的商业银行业务和风险较大的自营银行交易业务间建立一堵墙——也因立法过程的消磨而大打折扣。


The former Federal Reserve chairman’s simple idea has been co-opted and diluted through hundreds of pages of legalese.	这一由前美联储主席提出的简单方案被分解和稀释到了几百页厚的法律文档中。


The problem, at least, is simple: As finance has become more complicated, regulators have tried to keep up by adopting ever more complicated rules.	至少问题是简单的：随着金融越变越复杂，监管者的对策是出台更复杂的规则。


It is an arms race that underfunded government agencies have no chance to win.	这是一场军备竞赛，资金不足的政府部门绝无获胜机会。


Even back in the 1990’s, regulators would privately complain of the difficulty of retaining any staff capable of understanding the rapidly evolving derivatives market.	在20世纪90年代，监管者已在私底下抱怨很难找到能够理解快速演变的衍生品市场的工作人员了。


Research assistants with one year of experience working on derivatives issues would get bid away by the private sector at salaries five times what the government could pay.	拥有一年衍生品研究经验的研究助理会被私人部门以五倍于政府可以开出的工资挖走。


Around the same time, in the mid-1990’s, academics began to publish papers suggesting that the only effective way to regulate modern banks was a form of self-regulation.	大约与此同时，即20世纪90年代中期，学术界开始发表认为现代银行业唯一有效的监管方式是某种形式的自我监管的论文。


Let banks design their own risk management systems, audit them to the limited extent possible, and then severely punish them if they produce a loss outside agreed parameters.	让银行自己设计自己的风险管理体系并予以有限程度的审计，然后损失超过议定参数时予以严厉惩罚。


Many economists argued that these clever models were flawed, because the punishment threat was not credible, particularly in the case of a systemic meltdown affecting a large part of the financial system.	许多经济学家认为这些聪明的模型是有漏洞的，因为惩罚威胁并不可信，特别是在系统性崩溃威胁到金融系统大部的时候。


But the papers were published anyway, and the ideas were implemented.	但论文还是大量地发表了，论文中的观点也被实行了。


It is not necessary to recount the consequences.	产生了什么结果就不用我说了。


The clearest and most effective way to simplify regulation has been advanced in a series of important papers by Anat Admati of Stanford (with co-authors including Peter DeMarzo, Martin Hellwig, and Paul Pfleiderer).	斯坦福大学的阿德马蒂（Anat Admati，合作者摆阔德玛佐（Peter DeMarzo）、赫尔维格（Martin Hellwig）和普费勒德勒（Paul Pfleiderer））的一系列重要论文进一步阐释了最清晰、最有效的简化监管方法。


Their basic point is that financial firms should be forced to fund themselves in a more balanced fashion, and not to rely so heavily on debt finance.	基本要点是金融企业应该被强制以更平衡的方式为自身筹集资金，不能过度依赖债务融资。


Admati and her colleagues recommend requirements that force financial firms to generate equity funding either through retained earnings or, in the case of publicly traded firms, through stock issuance.	阿德马蒂及其同事建议采取强制金融企业通过利润留存或（若为上市公司）发行股票的方式进行股权融资的要求。


The status quo allows banks instead to leverage taxpayer assistance by holding razor-thin equity margins, relying on debt to a far greater extent than typical large non-financial firms do.	目前的监管规则允许银行只持有极薄的股本缓冲，充分利用纳税人的资助，金融企业的负债率远高于典型的大型非金融企业。


Some large firms, such as Apple, hold virtually no debt at all.	苹果等大公司几乎一分钱债务都没有。


Greater reliance on equity would give banks a much larger cushion to absorb losses.	更多地依靠股本能够为银行提供强大得多的损失吸收缓冲。


The financial industry complains that efforts to force greater equity funding would curtail lending, but this is just nonsense in a general equilibrium setting.	金融业抱怨说强制进行股权融资的动作会妨碍放贷，但在一般均衡条件下这纯属无稽之谈。


Nevertheless, governments have been very timid in advancing on this front, with the new Basel III rules taking only a baby step toward real change.	尽管如此，政府在这条战线上显得颇为畏首畏尾，新的巴塞尔III规则充其量只是迈向真正变化的微小一步。


Of course, it is not easy to legislate financial reform in a stagnant global economy, for fear of impeding credit and turning a sluggish recovery into a full-blown recession.	当然，在全球经济停滞的背景下进行金融改革立法绝非易事，因为这有可能妨碍信用扩张，将步履蹒跚的复苏打回可怕的衰退。


And, surely, academics are also to blame for the inertia, with many of them still defending elegant but deeply flawed models of perfect markets that create an illusion of safety for a system that is in fact highly risk-prone.	当然，学者也会受到不作为的职责，他们当中仍然不乏认定看似精美但具有深层漏洞的完美市场模型，这类模型创造了一种安全假象，原本极易受风险侵袭的系统看起来安全无比。


The fashionable idea of allowing banks to issue “contingent capital” (debt that becomes equity in a systemic crisis) is no more credible than the idea of committing to punish banks severely in the event of a crisis.	流行的意见是允许银行发行“或有资本”（在发生系统性危机是转变为股权的债务），该意见比承诺发生危机时严惩银行的方案可信得多。


A simpler and more transparent system would ultimately lead to more lending and greater stability, not less.	更简单、更透明的系统最终将增加贷款、增强稳定性，而不是相反。


It is high time to restore sanity to financial-market regulation.	让金融市场监管回归明智刻不容缓。


Ending the Nation-State Myth	结束民族国家的神话


NEW YORK – This fall, thousands of college students will be taught a myth presented as fact.	纽约－今年秋天，大学会将一个神话作为事实教给几万名大学生。


It is a myth that has helped fuel wars and may hinder finding solutions to the world’s biggest problems.	这个神话在过去已经对战争起到助燃作用，并可能在现在阻碍找到世界面临的最大的问题的解决方法。


Though the origin of this myth is cloudy, science has proven its falsity, and a globalized world has rendered it anachronistic.	虽然这个神话的起源扑朔迷离，但是科学已经证明了它是错误的，而且，一个全球化的世界已经认为这个神话与时代格格不入。


I am talking about the nation-state.	我在这里谈论的是民族国家的神话。


The nation-state myth conflates two ideas, one that is concrete, the state, and one that is fuzzy, the nation.	民族国家合并了两个观点，一个是具体的国家，另一个是模糊的民族。


The utility of the state is clear. It is a necessary organizing principle that allows people to pool their resources for the common good and mobilize against common threats, whether they are floods or invading armies.	国家的作用是很清楚的，它是使人们能够为了共同利益汇集他们的资源并动员起来抵御共同的威胁——不管这些威胁是洪水还是外国军队的入侵——的必要的组织原则。


The state is also the final arbiter of law.	国家也是法律最终的裁判者。


State power is even on the rise, partly as a backlash to globalization and as a result of growing wealth from energy markets.	一部分原因是要对全球化作出回应，以及作为能源市场不断增加的财富效应的结果，国家的权力甚至还在增强，。


But the nation-state as a basis for statecraft obscures the nature of humanity’s greatest threats.	但是，将民族国家作为治理国家的基础模糊了人类最大威胁的性质。


Pollution, terrorism, pandemics, and climate change are global phenomena.	污染、恐怖主义、流行疾病以及气候变化都是全球性的现象。


They do not respect national sovereignty, and, therefore, they necessitate global cooperation.	这些现象并不尊重国家主权，因而，它们需要全球合作来加以应对。


The origin of the nation-state idea is unclear.	人们对民族国家的起源并不是很清楚。


Most agree that it offered a way to consolidate and legitimize a state’s rule over a group of people, whether defined by a common language, culture, or ethnicity.	大多数人认为它为巩固和合法化一个国家对一群人的统治——不管这群人是由共同的语言、文化还是种族所确定——提供了一个途径。


The problem is that the contours of a cultural community rarely coincide with a political entity.	问题是，一个文化群体的范围很少会和一个政治实体的范围一致。


Nor does the ideal of national unity account for internal diversity and conflict.	民族统一的理想也不能解决民族内部的差异和冲突。


Identities within nations are fluid, even from minute to minute.	人们在民族内部的身份是不固定的，甚至每一分钟都不同。


About 15 years ago, I spent a summer in France’s Loire Valley.	大约在15年前，我在法国的卢瓦尔河谷地区呆了一个夏天。


As many travelers to France will attest, people in the French countryside believe that they, not Parisians, constitute the “true” France.	像许多到法国的旅行者证实的那样，法国乡下的人们认为是他们，而不是巴黎人，组成了“真正的”法国。


This division of core and periphery is common in many countries.	在许多国家，对核心和外围的区分是很普遍的。


But I also noticed that a person’s identity would change during the course of a conversation.	但是，我也注意到，一个人的身份在谈话的过程中都会发生改变。


“We French” would give way to “We Gauls,” “We Latins,” “We Bretons,” “We Franks,” or “We Europeans” depending on the topic.	“我们法国人”会根据话题而让位于“我们高卢人”，“我们拉丁人”，“我们布里多离人”，“我们弗兰克斯家族”或者是“我们欧洲人”。


This ever-changing identity was startling, but, on second thought, it made sense: after all, Charles de Gaulle famously said that it is difficult to govern a country with 246 types of cheese.	这种不断改变的身份令人吃惊，但是，再仔细想想，这是有意义的：毕竟，夏尔·戴高乐的一个著名言论是，统治一个有246种奶酪的国家是很困难的。


China is often thought to be governed by the Han majority.	中国经常被认为是由汉族统治的。


But this group is linguistically, culturally, and even genetically diverse.	但是，汉族在语言、文化甚至起源上都有很多不同。


As the author Ian Buruma recently mused, it is not clear what people mean by “China.”	就像作家伊恩·布鲁马（Ian Buruma）最近深入思考的那样，人们说“中国”时的意思并不明确。


Taiwan is an independent state but is officially part of China.	台湾是一个独立的国家，但是却正式是中国的一部分。


Chinese culture and language has spread all over the world.	中国的文化和语言已经传播到了全世界。


“China” is much more than just a nation-state, Buruma concludes.	布鲁马作出结论认为，“中国”不仅仅是一个民族国家。


Taiwanese scholar Lee Hsiao-feng has recently argued that the concept “Chinese” is a meaningless word that was fabricated to justify rule over minorities.	台湾学者李筱峰最近论证，“中国人”这一概念是一个毫无意义的词语，它被编造用来证明统治少数民族的正当性。


It is difficult to imagine a nation that is confined to one state or a state that contains one nation.	很难想象一个民族只局限于一个国家或一个国家只有一个民族。


Some argue that Japan is an example of a nation-state.	有人认为日本就是一个民族国家的例子。


In countless heated discussions, I have reminded many Japanese that the Japanese people actually comprise Ainu, Koreans, Chinese, Filipinos, and Ryuku.	在无数激烈的讨论中，我已经提醒过许多日本人，日本民族实际上包含了阿伊怒人、朝鲜人、中国人、菲律宾人以及琉球人。


Their response is always: “Yes, but we want to believe that there is a Japanese people.”  They even have a field of study devoted to examining what it means to be Japanese.	这些日本人的反应总是是这样的：“是的，但是我们应该认为有一个日本民族。 ”他们甚至有一个专门考察成为日本人意味着什么的研究领域。


Like religion, the nation-state myth requires a leap of faith.	像宗教一样，民族国家神话需要进行观念上的巨变。


Japanese scholar Yoshihisa Hagiwara argues that since it is not grounded in fact, the nation-state myth is bound to dissolve, giving way to an understanding that we are merely individuals who are part of a global community.	日本学者萩原义久（Yoshihisa Hagiwara）认为，既然民族国家不是建立在事实基础上的，那么，民族国家神话就一定会消散，让位于我们只是作为全球共同体的一部分的个人这样一种认识。


He laments that the Japanese are especially fond of the idea of “Japaneseness,” making it possible that Japan may become the “last hero” of a dying ethos.	他悲叹日本人特别喜欢“日本的”的观点，使日本可能成为一个垂死的社会思潮的“最后的英雄”。


Expressions of this notion appear frequently in popular culture.	对这个观点的表达经常出现在流行文化中。


A recent credit card commercial depicts a father and son traveling to Norway to trace their family’s origins.	一个最近的信用卡��告描述了一对父子旅行到挪威去探寻他们家族的起源的故事。


After bonding over local beer, food, sweaters, and swimming, they discover their family is actually from Sweden.	在感受了当地的啤酒、食物、毛衣以及泳池后，他们发现他们的家族实际上来自瑞典。


If I were to take that trip, I might have gone to Ireland to discover that my Irish ancestors were originally from Scotland.	如果我进行这样一个旅行，我可能会到爱尔兰，然后发现我的爱尔兰祖先最初来自苏格兰。 但是，这些苏格兰人来自哪里呢？


But where were the Scots from?	或许横跨另一个海洋。


Just across another sea, perhaps. The origin myth continues	这种起源神话会无限继续下去，直到我们找到人类的共同祖先，或者一个真正的神话——在中国的一个黑蛋，在日本海的一个长矛，或者是在法国火与冰的交互作用。


If policymakers are to address today’s problems, they must think more broadly.	如果政策制定者们打算解决现在的问题，他们的思维必须更开阔。


One place to start may be to reexamine the concept of the nation-state, which students around the world are taught is the basic unit of international relations.	或许重新检视民族国家的定义——这一定义被作为国际关系的基本单位教授给全世界的学生——是一个开端。


Beyond the core Realist theories of balance of power, an introduction to ethics in international affairs – moral philosophy, human rights, and the role of non-state actors – should be mainstreamed in international relations curricula.	在核心的现实主义力量均衡理论之外，在国际事务中引入伦理学——道德哲学、人权以及非国家主体的作用——应该成为国际关系课程的主流观点。


As the philosopher Peter Singer showed in his book One World , a united front against the biggest problems facing the world will require a fundamental shift in attitude – away from parochialism and toward a redefinition of self-interest.	像哲学家彼得·辛格（Peter Singer）在其著作《一个世界》中展现的那样，应对世界面临的最大的问题的统一战线要求进行观念上的根本转变——远离狭隘，面向对利己主义的重新定义。


Enlightened self-interest can be state-based, but interests would be re-defined to encompass universal principles such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.	进步的利己主义可以建立在国家的基础上，但是，利益应该被重新定义，以包含诸如《世界人权宣言》这样的公理。


If these interests are to gain universal recognition, we will need to shed the nation-state myth once and for all.	如果这些利益要获得普遍的认可，我们要永远抛弃民族国家的神话。


Ending the Never-Ending War on Drugs	为无尽的毒品战争画上句号


SAO PAULO – The war on drugs is a lost war, and 2011 is the time to move away from a punitive approach in order to pursue a new set of policies based on public health, human rights, and common sense.	发自圣保罗——毒品战争已经迷失了自己的方向，而2011年也是时候抛弃这个折磨人的做法，转而推动一系列与公共卫生，人权和常识有关的新政策。


These were the core findings of the Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy that I convened, together with former presidents Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico and César Gaviria of Colombia.	这也是由我本人，墨西哥前总统欧内斯托·扎迪罗和哥伦比亚前总统塞萨尔·加维里亚共同召集成立的拉丁美洲毒品与民主委员会所取得的核心研究成果。


We became involved with this issue for a compelling reason: the violence and corruption associated with drug trafficking represents a major threat to democracy in our region.	我们对毒品事务的介入是基于一个显而易见的原因：与毒品走私有关的暴力和腐败都是拉美民主的重要威胁。


This sense of urgency led us to evaluate current policies and look for viable alternatives. The evidence is overwhelming.	而那种紧迫感则要求我们去评估当前政策并寻找切实可行的替代方案。


The prohibitionist approach, based on repression of production and criminalization of consumption, has clearly failed.	无数的证据表明，那种着眼于打击毒品生产和吸毒罪行的封堵策略已经彻底失败了。


After 30 years of massive effort, all prohibitionism has achieved is to shift areas of cultivation and drug cartels from one country to another (the so-called balloon effect).	在奋战了30年之后，所有封堵策略最终取得的成果只不过是将毒品种植区和贩毒集团从一国赶到了另一国（所谓气球效应）。


Latin America remains the world’s largest exporter of cocaine and marijuana.	拉丁美洲依旧是全世界最大的可卡因和大麻出口源。


Thousands of young people continue to lose their lives in gang wars.	成百上千的年轻人依然在帮派火拼中丧命。


Drug lords rule by fear over entire communities.	毒品大亨还是用恐惧和暴力手段统治着所有社区。


We ended our report with a call for a paradigm shift.	在报告的结尾我们呼唤一场模式的转换。


The illicit drug trade will continue as long as there is demand for drugs. Instead of sticking to failed policies that do not reduce the profitability of the drug trade – and thus its power – we must redirect our efforts to the harm caused by drugs to people and societies, and to reducing consumption.	既然毒品消费存在一天，毒品走私就不会终结，那么与其坚持那些无法消除毒品暴利（及其影响力）的错误政策，不如将焦点转向毒品对人和社会的危害方面，最终减少毒品消费。


Some kind of drug consumption has existed throughout history in the most diverse cultures.	在大多数文化的历史中都存在着某些形式的毒品消费。


Today, drug use occurs throughout society.	而当今毒品已经渗透到了社会各个层面。


All kinds of people use drugs for all kinds of reasons: to relieve pain or experience pleasure, to escape reality or enhance their perception of it.	形形色色的人出于五花八门的理由服食毒品：为了缓解痛楚或是获取快感，为了逃避现实或是增加对现实的感知。


But the approach recommended in the Commission’s statement does not imply complacency.	但委员会在报告中所推荐的方式也不是无懈可击的。


Drugs are harmful to health. They undermine users’ decision-making capacity.	毒品损害健康，影响吸毒者的决策能力。


Needle-sharing spreads HIV/AIDS and other diseases.	分享注射器传播艾滋病及其他疾病。


Addiction can lead to financial ruin and domestic abuse, especially of children.	吸毒上瘾则导致财政困境和家庭暴力（尤其是针对儿童）。


Cutting consumption as much as possible must, therefore, be the main goal.	因此尽可能地减少毒品消费将是主要目标。


But this requires treating drug users not as criminals to be incarcerated, but as patients to be cared for.	但这要求不能将吸毒者视为必须打击的罪犯，而是需要照顾的病人。


Several countries are pursuing policies that emphasize prevention and treatment rather than repression – and refocusing their repressive measures on fighting the real enemy: organized crime.	有几个国家已经开始推行强调预防和治疗而非打击的政策——并将重点放到真正的敌人身上，那就是有组织犯罪。


The crack in the global consensus around the prohibitionist approach is widening.	全球各国对于封堵策略的共识也在逐步分裂。


A growing number of countries in Europe and Latin America are moving away from a purely repressive model.	越来越多的欧洲和拉美国家都不再采用单一的封堵模式。


Portugal and Switzerland are compelling examples of the positive impact of policies centered on prevention, treatment, and harm reduction.	葡萄牙和瑞士在以预防，治疗和减低危害为中心的政策方面都取得了积极的成果。


Both countries have decriminalized drug possession for personal use.	两国都不再将个人服食毒品视为犯罪。


Instead of leading to an explosion of drug consumption, as many feared, the number of people seeking treatment increased and overall drug use fell.	许多人都害怕这会导致毒品消费量激增，但结果却是寻求治疗者的数量不断增加，但总体毒品消费量却发生了下滑。


When the policy approach shifts from criminal repression to public health, drug users are more open to seeking treatment.	当政策手段从打击毒品犯罪转向公共健康，吸毒者也更乐于寻求治疗。


Decriminalization of consumption also reduces dealers’ power to influence and control consumers’ behavior.	吸毒无罪化同时也削弱了毒品贩子影响和控制吸毒者行为的能力。


In our report, we recommend evaluating from a public-health standpoint – and on the basis of the most advanced medical science – the merits of decriminalizing possession of cannabis for personal use.	在报告中，我们建议从公共卫生的角度——并以当前最尖端的医学研究为基础——来评估将个人服食大麻行为无罪化的优点。


Marijuana is by far the most widely used drug. There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that the harm it causes is at worst similar to the harm caused by alcohol or tobacco.	大麻是目前使用最为广泛的毒品，越来越多的证据显示它所造成的危害其实是与酒精与烟草的危害类似的。


Moreover, most of the damage associated with marijuana use – from the indiscriminate incarceration of consumers to the violence and corruption associated with the drug trade – is the result of current prohibitionist policies.	此外，大多数与大麻有关的危害——从对吸毒者不加辨别的打击到与毒品贸易相关的暴利和腐败——其实都是当前封堵政策所造成的后果。


Decriminalization of cannabis would thus be an important step forward in approaching drug use as a health problem and not as a matter for the criminal justice system.	因此大麻无罪化则是将吸食毒品作为一种健康问题（而不是犯罪）来对待方面所迈出的重要一步。


To be credible and effective, decriminalization must be combined with robust prevention campaigns.	为确保能取得可靠而有效的效果，大麻无罪化必须与健全的预防运动相结合。


The steep and sustained drop in tobacco consumption in recent decades shows that public information and prevention campaigns can work when based on messages that are consistent with the experience of those whom they target.	近几十年烟草消费量的持续暴跌表明公共信息发布和预防吸烟运动是有效的，只要能使目标受众所接受的信息和自身的体验相一致就行。


Tobacco was de-glamorized, taxed, and regulated; it has not been banned.	烟草并未被禁止，而是贬低了形象，施加了税款并受到了管制。


No country has devised a comprehensive solution to the drug problem.	至今还没有任何国家针对毒品问题制定了综合性方案。


But a solution need not require a stark choice between prohibition and legalization. The worst prohibition is the prohibition to think.	但这样一个方案并不意味着必须在禁止和合法化之间二选其一。


Now, at last, the taboo that prevented debate has been broken.	毕竟这已不再是一个不可讨论的禁区。


Alternative approaches are being tested and must be carefully reviewed.	也有一系列替代方案正在接受测试并认真检视。


At the end of the day, the capacity of people to evaluate risks and make informed choices will be as important to regulating the use of drugs as more humane and efficient laws and policies.	最终，人们衡量风险和在充分掌握信息的情况下做出选择的能力对于规管毒品的使用方面非常重要，也有助于体现更为人性化和高效的法律和政策。


Yes, drugs erode people’s freedom.	没错，毒品腐蚀人们的自由。


But it is time to recognize that repressive policies towards drug users, rooted as they are in prejudice, fear, and ideology, may be no less a threat to liberty.	但也是时候意识到那些对吸毒者的封堵政策，将偏见，恐惧和意识形态施加于他们身上，其实也是与自由的一种威胁。


Ending the Tragedy of Darfur	结束达尔福尔的悲剧


The critical conditions that continue to prevail in Darfur are causing immense suffering to its people.	达尔福尔持续的恶劣局势正在使其人民深受其害。


Both sides of the conflict – the government of Sudan and its allied forces, as well as all the opposition groups in Darfur – must understand that civilians should no longer fall victim to their political disputes.	争端双方――苏丹政府及其联军以及达尔福尔的各反对派都必须懂得平民不能再成为他们政治分歧的受害者。


The Sudanese government’s consent to the deployment of the hybrid United Nations/African Union mission, which aims to keep peace in the region, is of course a welcome development.	苏丹政府同意联合国/非洲联盟派军在该地区维护和平，这是受人欢迎的进展。


But the mandate of this mission must be strong enough to allow for full protection of the civilian population.	但这次行动必须享有足够强大的权力，足以给平民提供充分的保护。


Moreover, the force must have sufficient manpower, capacity, and funding to put this vital objective into practice efficiently.	而且，该部队必须有足够的人员、能力和资金，从而有效地实现这一重要目标。


The countries and institutions that have committed additional funds in order to help secure the success of this mission – notably France, Spain, and the European Commission – should all be applauded.	所有为保证此次任务顺利进行而捐助资金援助的国家和组织――特别是法国、西班牙和欧盟都应受到赞许。


It is important for international actors to assure Sudan’s government that the UN/AU mission will not strive for regime change in the country or otherwise exceed its peacekeeping mandate.	重要的是国际各方须向苏丹政府保证，联合国/非洲联盟这次行动无意使达尔福尔发生政权变更或者作出超出其维和职权范围的行动。


At the same time, the Sudanese government must be fully aware that only by adhering to past commitments and by cooperating in helping to prepare, deploy, and maintain the mission will the international community be encouraged to continue its support.	同时，苏丹政府也必须充分认识到，只有坚持以前的承诺，并帮助联合国/非洲联盟准备、部署并维护这一行动才能得到国际社会的继续支持。