In India, for example, feminists articulated to me a vision of women’s equality that was family-centered rather than self-centered, and that valued service to community rather than personal gratification.	比如在印度，女权主义者们向我阐述的女性平等理念更偏重于以家庭而不是以自我为中心，她们更看重的是对社会的贡献而不是个人的满足感。


They did not see their struggle as a cultural or ideological clash between men and women, but rather as a very practical effort to live free from violence and sexual assault, forced child marriage and bride-burning, and legal exclusion from parity.	她们并没有把自己的斗争看作是男女之间的文化或意识形态冲突，而恰恰看成是使自己避免暴力和性侵害、被迫早婚和焚妻、以及法律不平等的一项实际的工作。


The emerging consensus in India in support of greater rights and freedoms for women, while certainly causing some upheaval and adjustment (especially within the growing middle classes) has not yet – and might never – poison the basic trust and warmth between men and women.	刚刚在印度兴起的支持扩大妇女自由和权利的共识尽管注定会带来某些动荡和调整（特别是在日益壮大的中产阶级内部这种变化无法避免），但还没有——或许永远也不会——损害男女之间最基本的信任和温暖。


Nor does it seem likely to emulate the splintered, individualized, solitary society – and the commodified sexual revolution – that Western, self-based feminism reflects.	它似乎也不会步分裂、个性化、孤独社会——以及西方自我中心的女权主义所反应的商业化性解放的后尘。


This version of feminism – the notion that women can claim equality and still have a valued role in the home, prize family above all, and view rights in the context of community and spirituality – seems like a much-needed corrective to some of Western feminism’s shortcomings.	此类女权主义版本——女性有权要求平等但仍然在家庭中体现价值、把家庭利益放在首位、并以社会和精神为背景来看待权利的理念——似乎是某些西方女权主义缺点迫切需要的修正手段。


Ideally, men’s drive for progress in the developing world would also evolve, uniting the idea of the autonomous self with support for family, community, and other ties, and Western men would learn from this as well.	理想情况下，发展中国家男性的进步动力也会不断变化，将自主权和支持家庭、社会及其他关系的理念融合在一起，而且西方男性也会从中得到学习和提高。


Moreover, intellectually, these women remind us that Western feminism did not have to evolve the way it did, and can still change and grow to embrace a more satisfying and humane definition of equality.	此外，从理智的角度讲，这些妇女提醒我们西方女权主义不一定非要按照既有的方向发展，我们仍然可以对其进行修改和完善，从而使之贴近更令人满意、更具人情味的平等定义。


Simone de Beauvoir, whose seminal book	西蒙·德·波伏娃的著作


The good news for all women, East and West, is that President Karzai, under intense international criticism – and not just Western criticism – changed the law less than one week after the march.	对东西方妇女的好消息是卡尔扎伊总统在严厉的国际批评下——这样的批评言论不只来自于西方——在游行结束不到一周后就修改了这项法律。


This global uproar is a testament to how three decades of Western feminist challenges to leadership have changed the world for the better.	这次国际动荡证明了三十年来西方女权主义者对领导权的挑战怎样让世界向好的方向发展。


But our (Western) moment of feminist leadership is over now – for good reasons.	但我们（西方）把持女权主义领导地位的时代已经结束了——而且之所以这样也有充分的理由。


We know by now what our problems are as women in the West, and we know the blueprint for solving them.	我们现在知道西方女性的问题在哪里，而且也已经清楚解决之道。


What we lack now is not analysis, but the organizational and political will to do so.	我们现在缺乏的不是分析，而是切实执行的组织和政治意愿。


So the leadership role is shifting to women in the developing world.	因此领导权已经转移到发展中国家的妇女手中。


Their agenda is more pressing, and their problems, frankly, far more serious than ours, which makes it much more urgent for them to develop theories appropriate to the challenges they face.	她们的任务更加紧迫，而且坦率地讲，她们的问题比我们严重得多，因此她们迫切需要发展与所面临挑战相适应的理论。


If one of those courageous Afghan women who marched in Kabul wrote – as I hope she or one of her sisters in the developing world is doing right now – the seminal text for the next 50 years on non-Western feminism, it would no doubt be equality-driven and practical.	如果某位参与喀布尔游行的勇敢的阿富汗妇女写出——就像我希望她或她在发展中国家的某位姐妹正在做的那样——今后50年非西方女权主义的根本性文字，那么它毫无疑问将来自于平等的驱动并的确切实可行。


And perhaps, in its likely view of the world as being more than the sum of consuming, competing autonomies, or gender warfare, it would be a valuable challenge to truisms that we Western feminists – and the men who love us – have thought we had to take for granted.	而且也许，在她们把世界看作消耗、竞争自主权或性别战争的可能的见解中，它将成为对我们西方女权主义者——以及热爱我们的男人——曾经认为我们必须看作理所当然的真理的一次有价值的挑战。


Afghanistan’s Opium War	阿富汗的鸦片战争


When NATO leaders meet for their summit in Riga at the end of this month, there will be a ghost at the feast: Afghanistan’s opium.	北约领导人本月底在里加召开首脑会议之时，将有一个魔鬼在会议徘徊，那就是阿富汗的鸦片问题。


Afghanistan is in danger of falling back into the hands of terrorists, insurgents, and criminals, and the multi-billion-dollar opium trade is at the heart of the country’s malaise.	阿富汗正处于陷入恐怖份子、叛乱份子以及罪犯手中的危险，而几十亿美元的鸦片交易则是这个国家病症的核心所在。


Indeed, NATO’s top general, James Jones, has called drugs the “Achilles heel” of Afghanistan.	确实，北约总司令琼斯把毒品称为阿富汗的致命弱点。


This year’s record harvest of 6,100 tons of opium will generate more than $3 billion in illicit revenue – equivalent to almost half of Afghanistan’s GDP.	今年6100吨鸦片收成将会产生超过30亿美元的非法收入，几乎相对于阿富汗国民生产总值的一半。


Profits for drug traffickers downstream will be almost 20 times that amount.	下游毒贩的利润将几乎是这个数目的20倍。


Opium money is corrupting Afghan society from top to bottom.	鸦片收入正在从上到下腐蚀阿富汗社会。


High-level collusion enables thousands of tons of chemical precursors, needed to produce heroin, to be trucked into the country.	高层勾结使得数以千吨用于制造海洛因的化学前体运入该国。


Armed convoys transport raw opium around the country unhindered.	武装运输队在境内运输鸦片如入无人之境。


Sometimes even army and police vehicles are involved.	有时，连军队和警察也卷入其中。


Guns and bribes ensure that the trucks are waved through checkpoints.	武器和贿赂确保卡车得以通过检查站。


Opiates flow freely across borders into Iran, Pakistan, and other Central Asian countries.	鸦片剂大摇大摆地越境进入伊朗、巴基斯坦以及其他中亚国家。


The opium fields of wealthy landowners are untouched, because local officials are paid off.	由于买通了当地官员，富有地主们的鸦片种植地无人敢碰。


Major traffickers never come to trial because judges are bribed or intimidated.	法官们受贿或者受到恐吓，因此毒贩头子们从来都是逍遥法外。


Senior government officials take their cut of opium revenues or bribes in return for keeping quiet.	政府高官抽取鸦片收入或者贿赂以保持缄默。


Perversely, some provincial governors and government officials are themselves major players in the drug trade.	某些省长以及政府官员竟然也是毒品贸易的主要经营者。


As a result, the Afghan state is at risk of takeover by a malign coalition of extremists, criminals, and opportunists.	结果，阿富汗国家处在被极端份子、罪犯以及投机主义份子等组成的邪恶联盟接管的危险之中。


Opium is choking Afghan society.	鸦片正在令阿富汗社会窒息。


Within Afghanistan, drug addiction is rising.	在阿富汗境内，越来越多的人在吸毒。


Neighbors that used to be transit states for drugs are now major consumers, owing to similar dramatic increases in opium and heroin addiction.	由于鸦片和吸食海洛因，过去是毒品中转地的地方现在成为了主要的消费地。


Intravenous drug use is spreading HIV/AIDS in Iran, Central Asia, and the former Soviet Union.	使用注射毒品正在伊朗、中亚以及前苏联传播艾滋病。


In traditional Western European markets, health officials should brace for a rise in the number of deaths from drug overdoses, as this year’s bumper opium crop will lead to higher-purity doses of heroin.	在传统的西欧市场，由于今年鸦片作物丰收将会导致更高纯度剂量的海洛因，卫生官员将会遇到由于吸毒过量而造成的死亡数量的上升事件。


What can be done?	如何对付呢？


First, the veil of corruption in Afghanistan must be lifted.	首先，必须揭开阿富汗的腐败面纱。 阿富汗人对于傲慢而又受到武装保护的大亨们已经不耐烦了。


Afghans are fed up with arrogant and well-armed tycoons who live in mansions and drive top-of-the range Mercedes limousines – this in a country where barely 13% of the population have electricity and most people must survive on less than $200 a year.	他们身居豪宅，驾驶顶级的奔驰豪华轿车。 而在这个国家中，只有13%不到的人口拥有电力，大多数人必须靠每年200美元不到的收入过活。


It is time for the Afghan government to name, shame, and sack corrupt officials, arrest major drug traffickers and opium landlords, and seize their assets.	现在，阿富汗政府应该点名、羞辱并且解雇那些贪官，逮捕主要的毒贩和鸦片地主，并且没收他们的资产。


Donors have trained police and prosecutors and built courts and detention centers.	捐助国家们已经培训了警察、检察官，并且建造了法院和拘留中心。


Now it is up to the government to use the judicial system to impose the rule of law.	现在，政府应当使用司法体系来实施法治。


It will be difficult, but not impossible, to re-establish confidence in the central government.	重新建立对中央政府的信心将会是困难的，但并非不可能。


Putting major drug traffickers behind bars at the new maximum-security prison at Pul-i-Charki, near Kabul, would be a good start.	把主要的毒品贩子关进靠近喀布尔的波尔-伊-查基的新的最高安全戒备的监狱将会是一个良好的开端。


Of course, Afghanistan does not bear sole responsibility for its plight.	当然，阿富汗人对其灾难并不承担所有的责任。


The heroin trade would not be booming if Western governments were serious about combating drug consumption.	如果西方国家政府严肃打击毒品消费，那么，海洛因交易就不会猖獗。


It is a bitter irony that the countries whose soldiers’ lives are on the line in Afghanistan are also the biggest markets for Afghan heroin.	具有令人心酸的讽刺意味的是，那些向阿富汗派遣随时都有生命危险的士兵的国家同时也是阿富汗海洛因最大的市场。


Furthermore, Afghanistan’s neighbors must do more to stop insurgents, weapons, money, and chemical precursors from flowing across their borders into the country.	而且，阿富汗的邻国必须多做工作，以制止反叛人员、武器、金钱以及化学前体跨境进入该国。


Coalition forces should take a more robust approach to the drug problem.	联合部队应当对毒品问题采取更为强硬的手段。


Counter-insurgency and counter-narcotics are two sides of the same coin.	反叛乱和反毒品是一个问题的两个方面。


Improving security and the rule of law must include destroying the opium trade.	改善安全以及法治必须包括摧毁鸦片交易。


Allowing opium traffickers to operate with impunity gives them a free hand to raise money to pay for the arms and fighters battling the Afghan army and NATO forces.	允许鸦片贩子肆无忌惮就让他们无所顾忌地筹款来支付军火以及同阿富汗和北约军队作战的份子。


The United Nations Security Council has authorized the International Security Assistance Force to take all necessary measures to fulfill its mandate.	联合国安理会已经授权国际安全援助部队采取所有必要的手段来实现其使命。


NATO troops should be given the green light to help the Afghan army fight opium – destroy the heroin labs, disband the opium bazaars, attack the opium convoys, and bring the big traders to justice.	应当授权北约部队帮助阿富汗军队与鸦片作战，即摧毁海洛因实验室，解除鸦片集市，袭击鸦片运输队，并且把大毒贩绳之以法。


And they should be given the tools and manpower to do the job.	而且，应该给他们必要的装备和人员来完成使命。


There is no point in trying to win the hearts and minds of major drug traffickers.	试图赢得主要毒贩的欢心是没有用处的。


Farmers are a different story.	农民们则另当别论。


Forced eradication risks pushing farmers into the hands of extremists, and thus will not lead to the sustainable reduction of opium fields.	强制毁田有可能把农民们逼入极端份子手中，从而不会导致鸦片地可持续的减少。


Indeed, as we have seen in some Andean countries, it can be counter-productive.	实际上，正如我们在某些安达斯国家所见到的那样，这样做可能会适得其反。


Therefore, security and development must go hand in hand.	因此，安全和发展必须并举。


To achieve this, Afghanistan needs more development assistance.	为了实现这一目标，阿富汗需要更多的国际援助。


International support so far has been generous, but it is still well below per capita equivalents for other post-conflict situations – and the need is much greater.	目前为止，国际支持是慷慨的，但是，还是远远低于其他战后形势的人均水平，而且，需求更大。


Farmers will be weaned off opium over the long term only if they have sustainable livelihoods.	农民们只有具备了可以持久的生计才能长久地脱离鸦���。


At the moment, Afghanistan’s drug lords are prospering, and rural communities are suffering.	目前，阿富汗的大毒枭们为所欲为，而农村社区则奄奄一息。


That situation needs to be reversed.	这一局面必须得到扭转。


We must punish the traffickers and reward the farmers.	我们必须惩治毒贩而奖励农民。


We cannot afford to fail in Afghanistan.	我们无法在阿富汗失败。


Recent history has given us graphic evidence of what would happen if we do.	最近的历史生动地告诉我们失败的结局是什么。


But any solution in Afghanistan depends on eliminating its opium.	但是，任何阿富汗的解决之道都取决于消除其鸦片。


Afghanistan’s Terrorized Women	暴力威胁下的阿富汗妇女


KABUL – Recently, the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) office in Kudoz province reported the rescue of a young woman who had been imprisoned in her in-laws’ dungeon for seven months.	发自喀布尔——最近阿富汗独立人权委员会（AIHRC）在库都兹省（Kudoz）的办事处报告了一起营救事件。


Fifteen-year-old Sahar Gul was forced to marry an older man who serves in the Afghan army. She was then kept in the dungeon by her husband’s family and brutally tortured for months, because she refused to work as a prostitute.	年仅15岁的莎哈尔·古尔（Sahar Gul）先是被迫嫁给一名年纪比她大的阿富汗军人，随后又被夫家人强迫卖淫，她不从，于是就被锁在地牢里残酷虐待了整整七年，直至被营救出来。


Over the past ten years, the AIHRC has received more than 19,000 complaints related to violence against women.	在过去十年间，委员会收到了超过1. 9万件与虐待妇女有关的申诉。


Despite making some progress in investigating the complaints and referring them to the justice system, as well as in raising public awareness about the issue, the challenges remain huge.	尽管在调查这些申诉并移交司法机关的提升了公众对该事务关注度方面取得了一些进展，但我们所面对的挑战依然非常艰巨。


Since 2002, many efforts have been made to improve women’s lives in Afghanistan.	自2002年以来，各界在改善阿富汗妇女待遇方面作出了许多努力。


The country has enacted several new laws and established a fairly advanced legal framework to end discrimination against women, including a new law that criminalizes any act that results in violence against women.	国家也颁布了一系列新法并建立了一个相当先进的法律框架来结束对妇女的歧视，其中包括一部能将任何针对妇女的暴力行为定罪的法律。


But laws and policies alone are not sufficient to protect women from horrific domestic abuse.	但仅靠法律和政策并不足以保护妇女免遭残酷的家族虐待行为。


Indeed, the Gul case is hardly the only well-publicized case.	事实上，上面那宗案件只不过是曝光率最高的一个。


There was also Gulnaz, a young woman who was jailed for adultery after being raped by a relative (she was recently released after a presidential pardon, but may be forced to marry her attacker).	还有一名叫古尔纳兹（Gulnaz）的年轻妇女在遭到亲戚强奸之后竟以通奸罪名入狱（虽然她最近得到总统特赦，但仍可能被迫要和强奸者结婚）。


The husband of another young woman, Aisha, cut off her nose and ears when she ran away.	而另一位叫阿莎的妇女试图从家里逃走，却被其夫捉回来残忍地割掉了鼻子和双耳。


First, the country has inherited a patriarchal tribal tradition that assumes women’s inferiority. Women are therefore deprived of their basic rights and freedoms.	而针对妇女的暴力行为之所以在阿富汗屡禁不止，是由许多原因的：首先，该国继承了一个男权部落传统，认为女性就是低人一等，并因此剥夺了女性的基本权利和自由。


Second, there is a strong political incentive to deprive women of their rights.	其次，在政治上也存在强大的诱因去剥夺女性的权利。


Radical groups receive immense support from the large share of the population that opposes women’s rights.	有极大数量的民众反对给于妇女权利，而这些人同时又为那些极端组织提供了强大的支持。


The Taliban, for example, have consistently used an anti-women policy to appeal to tribal and rural people.	例如塔利班组织就一直利用一套压制妇女的政策来吸引部落和农村地区的民众。


Third, family pride and honor are deemed more important than a woman’s individual well-being and safety.	第三，有些人把家族荣誉看得比妇女个人的幸福和安全更加重要。


For example, if family members beat or abuse a woman, she has few options.	如果其他家庭成员虐打了家族中的一名妇女，她有几个选项。


Often, her only choice is to remain silent or risk disgracing the family.	一般情况下，她只能在忍气吞声和令家族蒙羞之间选择。


If she does report the matter to the authorities, the case will almost certainly never be properly investigated, nor the perpetrators ever prosecuted.	如果该名妇女把情况报告给了当局，这个案件几乎不会被认真调查，施暴者也不会被起诉。


Gul, for example, complained to the police about her abusive in-laws, but she was returned to the family when some of their influential contacts intervened.	比方说在古尔一案中，古尔将自己所遭受的暴行报告给了警察，谁知在夫家认识的某些权势人物介入后，警察竟又把她送回了夫家。


Fourth, laws are often arbitrarily applied, and sharia (Islamic law) frequently takes precedence over civil legislation, resulting in widespread impunity for crimes of violence against women.	其四，法律往往无法得到彻底执行，伊斯兰教法又经常凌驾于民法之上，使得那些针对妇女的暴力或罪行得以逍遥法外。


For example, in October 2010, the Afghan Supreme Court ruled that women who run away from home can be charged with prostitution, unless they go to the police or an immediate relative's home. It is this mindset that led to Gul’s victimization.	例如2010年10月阿富汗最高法院裁定：除非前往警察局或者直系亲属的家，否则逃离家庭的妇女将以卖淫罪论处。


Finally, while the Taliban lost power ten years ago, discrimination and violence against women has occurred in Afghan society for centuries.	最后，当塔利班政权在十年前倒台之时，对妇女的歧视和暴力已经在阿富汗存在了几个世纪之久。


Thus, despite some progress, public and official sensitivity to violence against women is only slowly emerging.	尽管目前取得了一些进步，公众和官方对这些事件的敏感度也只是缓慢建立之中。


The Afghan government must take several steps to protect women fully.	因此阿富汗政府必须采取一系列步骤去彻底保护妇女权益。


Above all, perpetrators of violence against women should be prosecuted and tried under due process of law.	其中最重要的莫过于要将这些针对妇女的暴力行为予以起诉并在恰当的法律程序下进行审判。


This will require strengthening the rule of law and ending the prevailing culture of impunity.	这就要求强化法治并消灭当前这种有罪不纠的文化。


That, in turn, requires educating the public further about human rights and women’s rights through school textbooks, continuing education courses, and a vigorous media campaign.	这反过来要求通过教科书，继续教育课程和大型媒体宣传活动来进一步向公众传达关于人权和妇女权利的知识。


It also requires persuading representatives and policymakers to develop policies and allocate budget revenues to combat violence against women, and training police and judges to handle cases of violence against women without deferring to claims of family honor.	同时也需要说服民意代表和政策制定者们去制定相关政策并拨出预算来打击暴力虐待妇女的行为，训练警察和法官摒除所谓家族荣誉的影响，秉公处理相关案件。


Perhaps most importantly, non-constitutional justice systems, such as sharia, must be monitored and checked, if not prohibited altogether.	而或许更重要的是，要么将类似伊斯兰教法这样的非宪政司法系统全面禁止，要么对其进行检讨和修订。


As for Sahar Gul, her case must be thoroughly investigated, and the police and judiciary must commit to bringing her torturers to justice.	对于莎哈尔·古尔来说，她的案件必须得到彻查，警察和法官必须尽全力将那些虐待她的人绳之于法。


Furthermore, Gul’s case, and others like it, should be studied in order to understand the roots of such crimes.	此外也必须对这些案件进行研究以辨清这类犯罪的根源。


Until Afghanistan’s leaders begin to address this problem seriously, our country will continue to bear the scar of violence against women on its face.	除非阿富汗领导人们开始认真处理这个问题，否则我们这个国家将继续因虐待妇女的罪行而蒙羞。


A Flat World and a Round Ball	平面世界和圆的足球


With the final stage of the World Cup approaching, now is a good opportunity for a mid-tournament appraisal.	世界杯最后阶段的比赛正在临近，现在是作出赛中评论的好时机。


This year’s Cup, unlike the previous one in Japan and South Korea in 2002, didn’t witness any real upsets in the first round.	今年的世界杯与2002年上一届韩日世界杯不同，并没有在第一轮出现大冷门。


Switzerland and Australia surprisingly reached the elimination round, and the Asian and African teams disappointed somewhat, with only Ghana advancing.	瑞士和澳大利亚进入十六强令人惊讶，而亚洲和非洲球队则多少令人失望，只有加纳队晋级。


There have been just two ugly matches so far, full of fouls, nasty attacks, and unnecessary aggression, as well as numerous yellow and red cards: Italy vs. the US, and Portugal vs. the Netherlands.	目前为止，只有两场比赛，也就是意大利对美国和葡萄牙对荷兰丑陋不堪，充满犯规、下流的攻击、毫无必要的侵犯以及漫天飞舞的红黄牌。


Otherwise, we’re experiencing a wonderful Cup in Germany, in terms of both sportsmanship and the overall atmosphere.	否则，我们正在体验一届无论是从体育角度还是整体气氛都是美妙的德国世界杯。


As for Germany and the Germans, one hardly recognizes one’s own country and people.	至于德国和德国人，人们几乎不认识自己的国家和同胞。


Even Mother Nature has played along.	即使是大自然母亲也随人意。


After a long winter and a non-existent spring, summer started promptly with the first kick-off – and virtually overnight, Germany has flaunted its sunniest and most delightful side.	经过了漫长的冬天和稍纵即逝的春天后，随着首场比赛的开始，夏天即刻来临，而且几乎是一夜之间，德国呈现了最为阳光明媚和快乐的一面。


The weather is Mediterranean, and all of a sudden, so are the people.	天气是地中海式的，而且连人也奔放。


The Cup’s organization has been exceptional (as was to be expected), with excellent police work giving hooligans hardly a chance.	本届世界杯赛的组织工作是出类拔萃的（正如预料的一样），警方的出色工作让足球流氓们无计可施。


The whole of Germany has been celebrating a never-ending party with guests from all over the world (which was not expected).	德国全国都在与来自五湖四海的宾客们一道庆贺这场不散的聚会（这是没有预料到的）。


And the German team has put on a wonderful display of heart warming and modern offensive soccer (which nobody could have expected!).	而德国队则展现了令人暖人心的现代攻势足球（这是没有人预料到的！ ）。


More importantly, not only in the German team, but also in the country as a whole, a young, cool, laid-back, and carefree Germany is raising its head – a Germany that is cosmopolitan, friendly, and good-humored.	更为重要的是，不仅仅是德国足球队，而且是整个国家都在以一个年轻、帅气、悠闲以及无忧无虑形象昂首阔步，也就是汇纳百川、友善以及风趣幽默。


Years of bad news appear to have passed the Germans by without a trace.	多年来的坏消息看起来已经过去，没有给德国留下痕迹。


Doctors are on strike, taxes are on the rise, the parties in government are mauling each other, and Chancellor Angela Merkel herself proclaimed in a prominent speech that the country is in disastrous shape.	医生正在罢工，纳税正在上升，联合政府的各党派在相互抨击，德国总理默克尔本人则在一场重要演讲中宣称国家大事不好。


But the Germans, undaunted by it all, simply keep celebrating one great soccer party with their newfound friends from all over the world.	但是，德国民众对此毫无兴趣，只是继续和来自五湖四海新结交的朋友们一道庆贺这一足球盛会。


The black, red, and gold German tricolor adorns the entire country as never before, but almost nowhere are there nationalist undertones.	德国国旗的三色黑、红和金色从来没有像现在这样在全国到处飘扬，但是，没有地方出现民族主义的意味。


In fact, the flags of many nations fly alongside German.	实际上，许多国家的旗帜与德国国旗一同飘扬。


In Berlin, as in other large German cities, taxis sport the flags of their drivers’ home countries – from Angola to Saudi Arabia.	在柏林以及其他德国大城市，可以看到出租车司机们展现祖国的国旗，从安哥拉一直到沙特阿拉伯。


Fans don not just their nations’ flags, but also fantastic costumes evocative of their home countries’ colors.	世界各地的球迷们不仅披上他们的国旗，也披上他们各自国家颜色鲜艳的服饰。


Flags are flown in hope of victory, but also serve to dry the tears of defeat.	挥舞国旗是为了报有胜利的希望，也是为了摸去国家队被击败的泪水。


In short, Germany during the World Cup is reminiscent of a Shakespearean midsummer night’s dream, with a touch of Woodstock to boot.	总而言之，世界杯期间的德国让人想起了莎士比亚的仲夏夜之梦，还有伍德斯托克音乐节的气氛。


Outside the stadiums, public screenings of the games have become joyous mass “happenings.”	在足球场外，大屏幕的比赛转播已经成为巨大的球迷欢乐“事件”。


And how is the soccer?	那么足球本身又如何呢？


This World Cup demonstrates three main developments that the sport has undergone.	本届世界杯展现了足球运动所经历的三种主要发展趋势。


First, Europe and South America are more dominant than four years ago and remain the unchallenged great powers of international soccer.	第一，欧洲和南美球队要比四年以前更为占据优势，而且保持为国际足球中无可挑战的大国。


So we must hope that the World Cup in South Africa in 2010 will finally bring greater global parity.	所以，我们必须希望2010年的南非世界杯将最终带来更大的全球性的强手林立。


Second, international soccer is witnessing the advent of a new generation.	第二，国际足球正在见证新的一代的来临。


Spain, Argentina, and Germany, to name but a few countries, have put forward very young teams that have played an impressive game.	西班牙、阿根廷以及德国推出了非常年轻的球队，令人印象深刻。 这些只是其中一些队伍。


On the French, English, and Portuguese teams, too, it is the young players that have shone – despite the continuing presence of Zidane, Beckham, and Figo.	尽管齐达内、贝克汉姆以及菲哥仍在场上，法国、英国以及葡萄牙队的年轻队员也夺人耳目。


Even the Brazilian squad is looking more aggressive and likely to score with young players like Robinho and Juninho than with their aging champions from 2002.	巴西也看起来更加富有攻势，罗比尼奥和儒尼奥尔也比2002年以来正在老迈的冠军们更有可能进球。


This generational change is accelerated by a third development.	这一世代改变由于第三个进展而加快进行。


At the top international level, soccer has become faster and more athletic, and the top teams can shrink space on the field more effectively.	在国际水平的顶级，足球变得更快，更加要求运动性，顶级球队更为有效地压缩球场空间。


A team that is unable to keep going at full speed for the full 90 (or more) minutes, switch from defense to offense quickly with the whole team, and maintain control of the ball to restrict their opponents' movements won’t stand much of a chance.	一支球队如果无法在90分钟甚至更长的时间里保持全速，迅速从防守转向进攻，并且控球限制对手的运动，那么就不会在顶级水平立足。


Here, soccer parallels today’s globalized markets, which make similar restructuring of national economies necessary.	在这里，人们可以在足球和当今全球化的市场进程之间有相似的地方。 由于全球化的市场，各国经济类似的重组十分必要。


Unlike economic globalization, however, it remains to be seen whether this new, fast-paced style of soccer will prevail (after all, the young blood of Spain lost to the Old Boys of France).	但是，与经济全球化不同的是，这一新的、快节奏足球是否能够获胜还有待观察（毕竟，血气方刚的西班牙输给了老迈的法国）。


The sport and its fans will certainly profit if it does.	体育和球迷肯定都会获益匪浅。


For now, we have a World Cup filled with soccer that is being shaped by a new, young generation both on and off the playing field – light-hearted, enthralling, and beautiful to watch.	现在，这是一届由新的年轻一代在场上场下塑造的世界杯，这一代人轻松愉快、令人着迷而且美丽动人。


Let’s hope that when the last whistle blows at the final in Berlin on July 9, we Germans retain as much of this positive spirit as possible.	让我们希望，当7月9日决赛哨音在柏林吹响的时候，我们德国人能够保持尽可能多的这种精神。


Germany urgently needs this kind of optimism, because, unfortunately, two universal principles will continue to apply in the future: first, the winter will return, and, second, the ball is round and the next game is always the most difficult.	德国急需这种乐观精神，因为，不幸的是，两项原则在未来依然有效：第一，冬天将会回来； 第二，足球是圆的，下一场比赛总是最艰巨的。


A Free Lunch for America	美国的免费午餐


BERKELEY – Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers had a good line at the International Monetary Fund meetings this year: governments, he said, are trying to treat a broken ankle when the patient is facing organ failure.	伯克利——前美国财政部长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）在今年的IMF会议上颇有想象力：他说，各国政府的做法，就好比是病人明明是脏器问题，却在给他治脚踝。


Summers was criticizing Europe’s focus on the second-order issue of Greece while far graver imbalances – between the EU’s north and south, and between reckless banks’ creditors and governments that failed to regulate properly – worsen with each passing day.	萨默斯是在批评欧洲将注意力集中在希腊问题这样的次要问题上，而更危险的失衡——北欧和南欧之间的失衡、鲁莽银行债权人与监管不力的政府之间的失衡——却在一天比一天更严重。


But, on the other side of the Atlantic, Americans have no reason to feel smug.	但在大西洋的另一边，美国人就找不到任何自命不凡的理由了。


Summers could have used the same metaphor to criticize the United States, where the continued focus on the long-run funding dilemmas of social insurance is sucking all of the oxygen out of efforts to deal with America’s macroeconomic and unemployment crisis.	萨默斯的比方同样可以用来形容美国——美国人一直把焦点放在社保的长期筹资困境上，而对美国宏观经济和失业危机视而不见。


The US government can currently borrow for 30 years at a real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate of 1% per year.	当前，美国政府的30年债务真实（经通胀调整的）利率为每年1%。


Suppose that the US government were to borrow an extra $500 billion over the next two years and spend it on infrastructure – even unproductively, on projects for which the social rate of return is a measly 25% per year.	假设未来两年美国政府多借5000亿美元，并将这笔钱用于基础设施建设——即使这些投资并非生产性的，其社会回报率只有每年25%。


Suppose that – as seems to be the case – the simple Keynesian government-expenditure multiplier on this spending is only two.	假设——目前看来正是如此——简单凯恩斯政府支出乘数 为2。


In that case, the $500 billion of extra federal infrastructure spending over the next two years would produce $1 trillion of extra output of goods and services, generate approximately seven million person-years of extra employment, and push down the unemployment rate by two percentage points in each of those years.	这样，未来两年5000亿美元的额外联邦基础设施支出将产生1万亿美元的额外商品和服务产出，创造大约700万人年的额外就业机会，将每年的失业率降低2个百分点。


And, with tighter labor-force attachment on the part of those who have jobs, the unemployment rate thereafter would likely be about 0.1 percentage points lower in the indefinite future.	此外，随着就业人口的劳动力附着效应收紧，失业率将在无穷期的未来中下降0. 1个百分点。


The impressive gains don’t stop there.	可观的好处还不仅于此。


Better infrastructure would mean an extra $20 billion a year of income and social welfare.	更好的基础设施将意味着每年多产生200亿美元的收入和社会财富。


A lower unemployment rate into the future would mean another $20 billion a year in higher production.	未来更低的失业率将意味着年产量提高200亿美元。


And half of the extra $1 trillion of goods and services would show up as consumption goods and services for American households.	而额外产生的1万亿美元商品和服务中有一半会表现为美国家庭的消费品和服务。


In sum, on the benefits side of the equation: more jobs now, $500 billion of additional consumption of goods and services over the next two years, and then a $40 billion a year flow of higher incomes and production each year thereafter.	总结一下好处：提高现在的就业率、未来2年内产生5000亿美元额外商品和服务消费、此后每年400亿美元的额外收入流和产量增加。


So, what are the likely costs of an extra $500 billion in infrastructure spending over the next two years?	那么，未来两年内增加5000亿美元基础设施支出的潜在成本又是多少呢？


For starters, the $500 billion of extra government spending would likely be offset by $300 billion of increased tax collections from higher economic activity.	首先，5000亿美元额外政府支出可以用税收增加额抵消3000亿，这笔税收增量来自更高的经济活跃度。


So the net result would be a $200 billion increase in the national debt.	因此净结果是国民债务水平将上升2000亿美元。


American taxpayers would then have to pay $2 billion a year in real interest on that extra national debt over the next 30 years, and then pay off or roll over the entire $200 billion.	美国纳税人因此必须在未来30年内为这笔增加的债务付出每年20亿美元的真是利息，然后偿付2000亿美元本金或将债务展期。


The $40 billion a year of higher economic activity would, however, generate roughly $10 billion a year in additional tax revenue.	但是，经济活动每年提高400亿美元会产生大约100亿美元的额外税收收入。


Using some of it to pay the real interest on the debt and saving the rest would mean that when the bill comes due, the tax-financed reserves generated by the healthier economy would be more than enough to pay off the additional national debt.	用其中的一部分来支付债务的真是利息，并将剩余部分储蓄起来，这样，在债务到期时，由更健康的经济所产生的来自税收的储备将足以偿清增加的国民债务。


In other words, taxpayers win, because the benefits from the healthier economy would more than compensate for the costs of servicing the higher national debt, enabling the government to provide more services without raising tax rates.	换句话说，纳税人将是赢家，因为更健康的经济所带来的好处将补偿增加国民债务的利息成本而有余，从而使政府有能力在不提高税率的情况下提供更多的服务。


Households win, too, because they get to buy more and nicer things with their incomes.	企业也是赢家，因为商品和工人将能够使用改善的基础设施。


Companies win, because goods and workers get to use the improved infrastructure.	失业者也是赢家，因为不少人将得到工作。


The unemployed win, because some of them get jobs. And even bond investors win, because they get their money back, with the interest for which they contracted.	甚至债券投资者也是赢家，因为他们拿回了借出去的钱，而且还获得合同中规定的利息。


So what is not to like?	有什么不好的地方吗？


Nothing.	没有。


How, you might ask, can I say this?	你也许会问，我为什么这样说？


I am an economist – a professor of the Dismal Science, in which there are no free lunches, in which benefits are always balanced by costs, and in which stories that sound too good to be true almost inevitably are.	我可是个经济学家，这个“沉闷科学”的教授，在经济学看来，天下没有免费的午餐，有好处就必有相应的成本，那些听起来难以置信的好事几乎无一例外真的不是好事。


But there are two things different about today.	但今天的情况有两点不同。


First, the US labor market is failing so badly that expanded government spending carries no resource cost to society as a whole.	首先，美国劳动力市场出现了大失灵，以至于扩张的政府支出不会给作为一个整体的社会带来资源成本。


Second, bond investors are being really stupid.	其次，债券投资者在现实中是很愚蠢的。


In a world in which the S&P 500 has a 7% annual earnings yield, nobody should be happy holding a US government 30-year inflation-adjusted bond that yields 1% per year.	如今，标普500指数可以产生7%的年收益，因此理应无人问津美国政府的30年经通胀调整的债券——收益率只有每年1%。


That six-percentage-point difference in anticipated real yield is a measure of bond investors’ extraordinary and irrational panic.	这6个百分点的预期真实收益率差额便是债券投资者不同寻常的非理性恐慌的写照。


They are willing to pay 6% per year for “safety.”	他们愿意为“安全”付出每年6%的利息。


Right now, however, the US government can manufacture “safety” out of thin air merely by printing bonds.	不过，眼下��国政府可以仅凭印债券创造“安全”。


The government, too, would then win by pocketing that 6% per year of value – though 30 years from now, bondholders who feel like winners now would most likely look at their portfolios’ extraordinarily poor performance of over 2011-2041 and rue their strategy.	于是，政府也是赢家，它可以在未来30年内将每年6%的价值收入囊中。 那些现在自视为赢家的债券持有者很可能会在2011—2041年期间看到自己的投资组合表现奇差无比，为现在的策略后悔不迭。


A French Presidential Primer	法国总统引言


The late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson used to quip that “a week is a long time in politics.”	前英国首相哈罗德·威尔逊曾经说过，“从政治角度讲一个星期称得上是漫长的时光”。


So, in the 30 or so weeks between now and the next French presidential election, any prediction made today could be reversed, and reversed again, before the vote.	因此，从现在开始到下一次法国总统大选到来之前的30多个星期里，今天所做的任何预测都有可能在投票前发生逆转、再发生逆转。


But two candidates have emerged as clear and constant favorites in opinion polls: Nicolas Sarkozy on the right and Ségolène Royal on the left.	但民意调查中有两位候选人一直遥遥领先：他们是右翼候选人尼古拉·萨尔柯齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)和左翼人士赛格莱娜·罗亚尔（Ségolène Royal）。


In fact, they have more in common than meets the eye, for each speaks of a rupture with the past while incarnating a form of continuity.	实际上，他们除了引人注目之外还有其他共同之处，那就是两个人都提出要与过去决裂，但同时要体现出某种形式的继承。


For Sarkozy, “rupture” reflects both mundanely tactical and deeply personal choices.	对萨尔柯齐来讲，“决裂”既反映了世俗的技巧，也是深层次的个人选择。


The 12 years of Jacques Chirac‘s presidency, together with France’s tradition of alternation in power, suggests a victory for the left.	雅克·希拉克（Jacques Chirac）12年执政，以及法国领导层变动的传统，都表明胜利属于左翼党派。


Positioning himself as the candidate who represents a sharp break with today’s unpopular politics is the only means to escape that fate.	将自己定位成与今天不受欢迎的政治决裂的候选人是避免厄运的唯一出路。


This is reflected in Sarkozy’s openly pro-American stance – an act of political courage in a France where anti-Americanism is running high.	这在萨尔柯齐公开的亲美立场中有所反映¾在今天反美主义甚嚣尘上的法国，采取这样的立场需要很大的政治勇气。


Sarkozy’s message is that Chirac and Villepin were right in substance to oppose America’s military adventure in Iraq, but that their style was disastrously wrong.	萨尔柯齐的立场是希拉克和维尔潘反对美国军事入侵伊拉克在实质上并没有错，但在形式上却错得一塌糊涂。


Thus, his deep admiration for “American values,” while sincere, implies no embrace of President George W. Bush.	因此，他对“美国价值观”的深层崇拜尽管是真心流露，但却不意味着乔治·W·布什总统的所作所为能得到赞同。


It also reassures the French business community, which was shocked by Dominique de Villepin’s flamboyant opposition to the United States when he was Chirac’s foreign minister.	萨尔柯齐的立场还给法国企业界人士吃下了定心丸，这些企业家被多米尼克·德维尔潘担任希拉克外长时与美国的公然对抗吓出一身冷汗。


At home, Sarkozy has aimed his message particularly at the young, issuing a patriotic call to the values of work and discipline, a counter-revolutionary revolution.	在内政方面，萨尔柯齐把重点放在了青年人身上，力求唤起他们的爱国热情，建立勤于工作和遵纪守法的价值观，这是一场反对革命的革命。


The revolution that must be overcome is that of May 1968, whose leaders and supporters, according to Sarkozy, may have lost politically to de Gaulle, but deeply weakened France over the succeeding decades with their emphasis on “false values.”	必须杜绝1968年5月革命那样的灾难，因为在萨尔柯齐看来，这场革命的领导者和支持者或许在政治上输给了戴高乐，但他们所强调的“错误价值观”却在接下来的几十年内大大削弱了法国的力量。


By contrast, rebelling against one’s parents’ generation and rediscovering traditional moral stances will save France – a message that is highly applicable to issues, such as education and immigration, that may dominate the electoral campaign.	与此形成鲜明对照的是，反对父母那一代的观点，重新发掘传统的道德准则能够拯救法国¾这样的观点对教育和移民等问题都大有裨益，而上述问题在竞选活动中占据了主导地位。


In the case of Royal, the meaning of “rupture” is both more obvious and more visible.	在罗亚尔看来，“决裂”的含义更加明确和清晰。


She is seeking to become the first woman President of the French Republic.	她试图成为法兰西共和国历史上首位女性总统。


To achieve her goal, she prefers to emphasize her “essence,” thereby countering Sarkozy’s stress on his record as a “doer.”	为了达到这一目的，她更愿意强调自己的“本质”，并以此来对抗萨尔柯齐的所谓“实干家”履历。


Her appeal to voters is simple: “I am a woman, and you have never tried a woman, so be modern and try one now.”	她吸引选民的口号非常简单：“我是个女人，你们从来没选过女总统，现在就应该跟上潮流，试试女总统的执政能力。 ”


Hiding behind the originality (in French presidential politics) of her gender, Royal has avoided specifying a detailed program.	躲在其性别（在法国总统政治中）的原创性背后，罗亚尔一直闪烁其辞，不愿说明详细的施政计划。


When challenged by inquisitive journalists demanding greater precision about her policy agenda, her highly effective line of defense (so far!) has been: “You would not dare to ask me such a question if I were not a woman!”	当喜爱刨根问底的记者对她的政治安排的细节提出质疑的时候，她最有效的防御手段（至少到目前为止）是：“如果我不是位女性，你根本就不敢提出这样的问题！ ”


Thus, Royal’s program is her popularity.	于是，人气就成了罗亚尔的法宝。


In foreign policy, one can only guess what her priorities would be.	我们只能猜想她在外交上将做出何种安排。


As far as Europe is concerned, she seems as “agnostic” as Sarkozy, who, like her, incarnates a new generation of “post-European” leaders.	在欧洲问题上，她似乎和萨尔柯齐一样讳莫如深，而后者和她一样，是新一代“后欧洲”领袖人物的代表。


In terms of values, Royal, too, seems to represent a rupture with May 1968, with her emphasis on discipline and family.	在价值观方面，罗亚尔似乎也提倡与1968年5月革命决裂，而她着重强调的是法纪和家庭。


According to public opinion polls, Royal is the clear favorite of the left and the only candidate able to defeat Sarkozy.	民意测验的结果显示，罗亚尔显然受到左翼党派的青睐，是唯一有可能击败萨尔柯齐的候选人。


Her support is particularly strong among women voters.	女性选民对她的支持尤为热烈。


For the Socialist Party, which is eager to return to power but has not yet recovered from the humiliating defeat of Lionel Jospin in the first round of the presidential election in 2002, the question is whether it can afford to resist the wave of favorable public opinion behind Royal.	对于急于重新当选而又尚未从2002年利昂内尔·若斯潘（Lionel Jospin）首轮选举即惨遭淘汰的屈辱经历中恢复元气的社会党来说，真正的问题在于它是否敢于对抗罗亚尔身后民意支持的洪流。


In the opinion of Royal’s many opponents among Socialist leaders and militants, the dominance of the media in the political process is leading to mediocrity: the qualities required to be elected are becoming nearly incompatible with those needed to govern.	在社会党和军界中罗亚尔的许多反对者看来，政治过程中媒体的主导地位已经导致政治日渐平庸：当选所需要的品质几乎与执政需要的品质格格不入。


According to Royal’s Socialist critics, the “Hollywoodization” of politics from which she benefits entails a new approach in which leaders follow and followers lead.	在罗亚尔的社会党批评者看来，令她受益匪浅的政治“好莱坞化”带来一种崭新的局面：那就是领导人哗众取宠，而普通公众反倒成了主角。


But the same criticism can be directed at Sarkozy.	但同样的批评也可以指向萨尔柯齐。


Moreover, both candidates embody continuity – with Chirac’s Gaullist side for Sarkozy and with François Mitterrand for Royal – as much as rupture.	不仅如此，两位候选人都在与过去决裂的同时，体现了政策的延续性¾萨尔柯齐���承了希拉克和戴高乐的政策，而罗亚尔则接过了弗朗索瓦·密特朗(François Mitterrand) 的社会主义衣钵。


Royal openly claims Mitterand’s legacy as she searches for legitimacy, while Sarkozy’s rejection of Chirac’s legacy has more to do with form than substance.	罗亚尔在确立合法地位时公开声称要继承密特朗的事业，而萨尔柯齐对希拉克证见的排斥形式要远远大于实质内容。


To a large extent, Sarkozy can be seen as Chirac with more, whereas Royal is clearly Mitterrand with less.	在很大程度上萨尔柯齐比希拉克更有能力，而罗亚尔则显然比密特朗逊色许多。


When the voters decide in the spring of 2007, their choice may depend more on negative than positive considerations, as it did in 2002, when Chirac faced the odious nationalist Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round.	选民们在2007年春做出最后决定的时候，决定因素也许更多地来自负面、而不是正面的印象，这一点与2002年第二回合选举中希拉克面对臭名昭著的民族主义分子勒庞（Jean Marie Le Pen）时如出一辙。


As in 2002, the winner next year will be whomever the electorate dislikes or fears less.	与2002年时一样，明年获胜的将是选民们不那么憎恶和害怕的候选者。


But one way or the other, personalities will prevail over programs.	但无论是谁最终当选，有一点可以肯定，那就是个性因素将成为凌驾于政治见解之上的决定性力量。


A Fresh Start for China and Japan?	中日关系的新开始？


Edmonton – Chinese President Hu Jintao will make a high-profile visit to Japan from May 6-10, making him the second Chinese head of state ever to travel there.	埃德蒙顿——中国主席胡锦涛将于5月6日至10日高调访问日本，这次访问令他成为有史以来第二位访日的中国国家主席。


The trip is being carefully managed by both countries, and is being watched closely around the world, with good reason: Sino-Japanese relations over the past decade have been turbulent, to say the least.	中日两国都小心谨慎地对待这次访问，世界其他国家也一直在密切关注这次访问的行程，其原因显而易见：过去10年来的中日关系一直充满了各种各样的动荡，这恐怕还是最缓和的说法。


When Hu’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin, traveled to Japan ten years ago, bilateral relations were deteriorating: China was unhappy with the Japanese government’s refusal to extend the same apology offered to South Korea for past aggression; Japan was worried about a rising China and thus turning more confrontational.	当胡的前任江泽民10年前访问日本时，双边关系正在迅速恶化：中国对日本政府拒绝对过去的侵略行为向中国和韩国同样致歉深感不满，而日本则对中国的崛起充满了忧虑，也因此滋长了对立情绪。


The Japanese media’s coverage of the visit was overwhelmingly negative, and it was remembered as a public-relations disaster.	日本媒体对那次访问进行了占据压倒优势的负面报导，而那次访问也被作为公共关系的一场灾难载入了史册。


Hu succeeded Jiang in 2002, almost as former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was coming to power in Japan, and encouraged “New Thinking” in China’s Japan policy, which would entail moving away from historical grievances and promoting better ties.	胡在2002年接替了江的位置，当时的前日本首相小泉纯一郎也刚刚宣誓就职，胡鼓励在中日关系中引入“全新思维”，这样也许可以远离历史的不满并促进更为健康的双边关系。


But, instead of accepting China’s olive branch, Koizumi implemented a more nationalistic agenda, including annual visits to the Yasukuni Shine, which is regarded as a symbol of Japanese militarism by Japan’s neighbors.	但小泉不仅没有接过中国递出的橄榄枝，相反却实行了更倾向于民族主义的政治策略，包括每年一度参拜敬国神社，而该神社在日本的邻国看来恰恰象征着日本的军国主义。


His hard-line approach isolated Japan and angered China, leading to an outburst of anti-Japanese demonstrations in China in 2005.	小泉的强硬路线在让日本陷入孤立的同时激怒了中国，引发了2005年的一系列反日示威。


But both Japan and China recognize that further tension will serve neither country’s long-term interests.	但日本和中国都已意识到：双边关系进一步紧张化不符合任何一方的长期利益。


Koizumi’s successors, Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, have sought to engage China over the past two years, with summits in Beijing and a successful visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to Japan last year.	小泉的继任者，安倍晋三和福田康夫首相，过去两年来一直试图改善与中国的关系，中日双方召开了北京峰会，而且去年中国总理温家宝的访日取得了成功。


Hu’s trip is likely follow the example set by Wen.	胡的访问很有可能将温的成果延续下去。


He will emphasize common strategic interests, highlight mutual economic benefits, generate positive public opinion, and promote further exchanges.	他将强调双方共同的战略利益，强调双边经济互惠，促进积极的公众舆论，并推动两国进一步的交流。


Japan is not only one of China’s largest trade and investment partners, it is also the most powerful neighbor with which China wants to be on good terms, partly to showcase that China’s rise is not a threat to Asia and the rest of the world.	日本不仅是中国最大的贸易和投资伙伴，也是中国希望与之维护友好关系的实力最强的邻居，中国这样做的部分目的是向亚洲和世界其他国家展示中国的崛起并不对任何人构成威胁。


Japan, whose economic recovery is attributable largely to its deepening ties with China in recent years, is also eager to demonstrate that it regards China not as a threat but as an opportunity, as least in economic terms.	而日本近年以来的经济复苏应该在很大程度上归功于与中国日益深入的关系，因此日本也急于表明，日本并没有把中国看作是一种威胁，而是一种机遇，这样的看法至少在经济领域能够成立。


It was 30 years ago that former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, the father of today’s prime minister, signed a Peace and Friendship Treaty with China.	就在30年前，现任日本首相的父亲，前任日本首相福田赳夫，与中国签订了《和平友好条约》。


The two governments will certainly use Hu’s visit to celebrate the anniversary with new programs designed to enhance bilateral understanding and friendship.	中日两国政府肯定会利用胡锦涛这次的访日契机制定旨在促进双边了解和友谊的新计划，来庆祝《条约》签订的三十周年纪念日。


But, unlike three decades ago, when the Japanese regarded China as one of their most favored countries, public opinion in both countries nowadays registers more negative feelings than positive ones.	但与30年前情况不同的是，当日本把中国看作最惠国之一的时候，日中两国目前的公众舆论所显示出来的负面情感却远远多于善意。


Behind the smiles, the polite interactions, and the cautiously worded diplomatic language, strong undercurrents of suspicion remain.	在微笑、礼貌的接触以及措辞小心翼翼的外交语言背后，仍然存在着力量强大的怀疑的暗流。


One problem is the disputed waters of the East China Sea.	问题之一是中国东海的争议水域。


Despite new joint projects in energy efficiency and environmental protection, areas in which China ranks Japan as the best performer among industrialized countries, the two sides remain in bitterly divided over these territorial waters, which contain huge potential oil, gas, and other mineral deposits. Even after many rounds of talks, no resolution is in sight, and Hu’s visit is not expected to produce any breakthroughs.	尽管在能源效率和环境保护领域开展了新的合作项目，而且中国在上述领域里把日本列为工业化国家首选的合作伙伴，但中日双方依然在地区性水域问题上存在着严重的对立，而在中日存在着严重争议的水域，很有可能蕴藏着大量的石油、天然气和其他矿产资源。


Then there are strategic suspicions.	其次是严重的战略怀疑。


Fukuda has dropped Abe’s talk about an “arch of freedom” – an effort to forge a bloc with the United States, Australia, and India.	福田停止了安倍有关“自由圈”的谈判——放弃了与美国、澳大利亚和印度组成联合集团的努力。


But Japan remains concerned about China’s rapidly modernizing military, while China worries about a potential US-Japan containment strategy for China, especially in the case of a crisis in the Taiwan Straits.	但日本依然对中国军事领域的快速现代化表示忧虑，而中国则担心美日可能联手对中国采取遏制策略，特别是如果台海地区发生危机。


So, although both sides endorse the idea of a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship,” and despite progress bilateral on military exchanges, mutual trust and confidence-building have a long way to go.	因此，尽管中日双方都对“互惠互利的战略关系”深表赞赏，而且在双边军事交流方面也取得了不少进步，但是在重拾信心，建立互信等领域还有很多工作有待完成。


Moreover, today’s “warm politics, cool economics” trend is the reverse of the “cold politics, warm economics” pattern under Koizumi.	此外，当前“政治热、经济冷”的趋势正在取代小泉治下的“政治冷、经济热”的模式。


Last year, Japan’s committed investment projects in China fell 24% from 2006, while actual investment volume decreased by 25%, partly owing to regulatory changes in China regarding foreign investment.	去年，日本在中国的专属投资项目比2006年降低了24%，而实际投资额则缩减了25%，这一变化部分来源于中国在外资流入方面的监管变化。


Recent food safety issues, such as the “poisoned dumplings” cases, have clearly heightened the Japanese public’s sensitivity about Chinese exports.	不久前所发生的安全问题，比如“毒饺子”事件，已经提高了日本公众对中国出口商品的警惕。


Finally, historical issues could still resurface to cause new problems.	最后，历史事件可以重新浮出水面造成新的问题。


While Fukuda has made it clear that he will not visit the Yasukuni Shrine, 160 other parliamentarians paid homage at the site last month, an indication that conservative forces in Japan remain strong and that future prime ministers may not abstain from visiting Yasukuni.	尽管福田明确了他将不再参拜敬国神社，仍然有160名议会成员在上个月到场表示了敬意。 这一现象表明日本的保守派势力仍然十分强大，因此未来的日本首相不一定会放弃参拜神社的权利。


And Japan has so far failed to live up to its treaty obligations to clean up between 700,000 and two million chemical weapons that were abandoned in China by the Japanese army at the end of World War II, another potential flash point if any of these weapons causes casualties in China.	而且日本到目前为止未能履行条约中所应承担的义务，清理二次大战末期日军遗弃在中国的700，000到2百万件化学武器。 如果这些武器在中国造成人员伤亡，可能提醒中国民众再次回忆起那段痛苦的经历。


A Fresh Start for Europe	欧洲的新起点


As Europe’s leaders gather in Portugal to put the finishing touches on the new, slimmed down, Reform Treaty, it might be helpful if they all pretended that the last 50 years of European integration had never taken place.	当欧洲的领导人们在葡萄牙汇聚一堂，对新的、经过精减的《改革公约》进行最后润色的时候，如果他们能佯装过去50年的欧洲一体化从未发生那就好了。


Let’s then imagine what Europe needs to do to confront its most pressing challenges, especially if it were able to do so without the political constraints of 50 years of EU deal-making and ramshackle institution-building.	就让我们想象一下欧洲为了应对最迫在眉睫的挑战需要怎么做，特别是它如果能够摆脱50年来欧盟讨价还价和朝三暮四的制度建设的政治制约。


On top of that, let us make a major leap of imagination and suppose that even though this scenario of the EU at “Year Zero” means we would not have a half-century of intra-European cooperation to draw on, the nations that today make up the EU would nevertheless be keen to adopt far-reaching joint policies.	在此之前，让我们再发挥一下跳跃式的想象，假设尽管欧盟“零年”的情形意味着我们没有长达半个世纪的欧洲内部合作的基础，但当今组成欧盟的各国仍然渴望实施长期的共同政策。


Let’s suspend our disbelief, then, and try to imagine what Europe could and should be doing to tackle some of the most far-reaching and obstinate policy challenges that will determine whether the next 50 years are as constructive as the last.	那么，让我们搁置怀疑，并想象一下欧洲可以并且应该怎么做以应对那些最为长远和困难的政策挑战。 这些挑战会决定未来五十年是否会和过去的五十年一样具有建设性。


Or, to put it another way, let’s look at our problems in the light of the EU’s existing mechanisms and its potential for creating far-reaching new policies, and then let’s ask ourselves why the EU isn’t realizing its own potential and delivering the goods.	或者，换句话说，让我们在现有机制下来看待这些问题及欧盟创造长期新政策的潜力，然后再让我们扪心自问欧盟为何没有发挥潜力、实现目标。


Broadly, we see three areas in which Europe’s policymakers at both the national and EU levels can do better: global challenges where Europe could show greater leadership, the creation and strengthening of human capital within the EU and worldwide, and improvement in the effectiveness of the EU’s own political machinery.	从大处讲，欧洲的政策制定者们在国家和欧盟层面上的三个领域可以做得更好：在全球性挑战方面欧洲可以发挥更大的领导作用； 在欧盟和世界范围内创造和强化人力资本；


Europe needs a clearer and more recognizable global agenda.	欧洲需要一份更清晰和更能被认可的全球议程。


It needs to build substantially on its leadership on climate change by adopting much tougher EU goals, and then use its international economic and trade clout to champion new global emissions standards that scientific opinion can accept as meaningful.	它需要通过实施更为严格的欧盟目标来大幅提升在气候变化方面的领导力，然后运用其国际经济与贸易的影响力来引领新的全球排放标准。 这些标准应该被科学界认定为有意义的。


On conflict and security issues, Europe should be advancing to a new phase in which it takes much clearer and unambiguous positions on issues ranging from nuclear proliferation to sanctions against Burma’s military regime.	在冲突和安全问题上，欧洲应该步入一个新阶段，在从核扩散到制裁缅甸军政府的问题上表明更清晰和坚定的立场。


The purpose must be to establish Europe as a forceful and fair-minded player on the world stage, rather than as a “broad church” in which different viewpoints co-exist.	这样做的目的是为了让欧洲在世界舞台上扮演一个强既有力又公平的角色，而不是一个不同观点共存的“大圣堂”。


The aim should be that “soft power” instruments like EU development aid and economic partnerships would be linked with a growing sense of political and security outreach to ensure Europe is a global player to be reckoned with.	其目标是将如欧盟发展援助和经济伙伴关系这样的“软实力”工具与日益增长的政治和安全保障感联系起来，从而确立欧洲的全球作用。


That means, of course, that the EU should seek to widen its transatlantic thinking so that the EU and the United States cooperate more closely on defining – and thus protecting – their common interests in a world where together they account for little more than 10% of the total population.	当然，这就意味着欧盟应该寻求扩展其跨大西洋的思维以便欧盟和美国在定义—进而保护—它们在世界上的共同利益方面更紧密地合作。 两者的总人口只不过占世界总人口的百分之十多一点。


These points are far from a blanket criticism of the EU’s efforts to create a common foreign and security policy.	这些观点甚至不算是对欧盟创建共同外交与安全政策的努力的委婉批评。


But they are intended to underline what many people in Europe know very well, which is that the speed with which problems concerning international development and conflict are growing easily outpaces the EU’s policy responses so far.	但它们旨在强调一些欧洲的许多人都再明白不过的事实，即与国际发展和冲突相关的问题恶化的速度早已超过了欧盟的政策回应速度。


Building more human capital in Europe and worldwide is a crucially important element in future EU activities.	在欧洲和世界范围内建立更多的人力资本是欧盟未来活动中至关重要的因素。


Education is by far the most profitable investment Europe can make, so it should be launching its most ambitious strategy ever to create a new knowledge dynamic and employment inside the EU while helping to expand greatly education in the world’s poorest countries.	教育是目前为止欧盟可以进行的回报最高的投资。 因此它应该启动有史以来最为宏伟的计划，在内部创造新的求知动力和就业机会，同时帮助世界上最穷困的国家大力发展教育事业。


Europe also must at last grasp the nettle of immigration policy – something that has persistently eluded generations of political leaders.	欧洲还终究必须解决移民政策的痼疾—这个让好几代领导人都避之不及的问题。


Agreed EU-wide immigration rules are needed to reconcile shrinking Europe’s hunger for imported labor with widespread fears of cultural tensions and social unrest.	我们需要一套经各方批准的全欧洲的移民法规来协调那种通过广泛传播的对文化压力和社会不安定的恐惧来抑制欧洲对外来劳力的极大需求的做法。


It won’t be easy to create a fairer and more multi-cultural Europe, but failure to address this problem openly will carry an even heavier price.	建设一个更为公平和多文化的欧洲决非易事，但在这个问题上应对不力会让我们付出更为沉重的代价。


By much the same token, Europe’s governments should be making a determined new effort to strengthen Europeans’ sense of a shared history and common values.	同理，欧洲各国的政府应该付出更为坚定的努力来强化欧洲人的共同历史感和共同价值观。


A stronger European identity is the soundest basis for creating the more multi-cultural society that demographers regard as inevitable.	一种更强烈的欧洲认同感是创造多文化社会的最坚实基础。 这样的社会在人口统计学家们看来是不可避免的。


Meanwhile, doubts still surround the political and institutional machinery the EU will need to realize these and other ambitious goals.	同时，在欧盟实现其宏伟目标所需要的政治与制度机器上仍然疑云笼罩。


Sighs of relief greeted EU leaders’ mid-year agreement on a Reform Treaty aimed at overhauling the Union’s decision-making mechanisms, but it is still uncertain whether the new pact will survive the ratification process in 27 countries.	欧盟领导人们在全面检视该组织的决策机制的《改革公约》上达成的年中协议令人可以舒一口气，但这一新协定能否得到27个成员国的批准仍然是个未知数。


We believe, though, that the increased use of qualified majority voting by member governments embodied in the new treaty should also be applied to the ratification process itself.	但我们认为新公约所规定的、正被各成员国越来越多地使用的有效多数票（qualified majority voting）方式，也应该适用于公约的批准过程本身。


That way, if a small minority of EU governments prove unable to ratify the treaty, it would not be torpedoed the way that its predecessor, the Constitutional Treaty, was in 2005.	如此一来，即便欧盟少数的成员国政府不能批准该公约，那么它也不会像其前身《宪法公约》在2005年时一样前功尽弃。


How to Help the African Dust Bowl	如何帮助非洲尘暴区


SEATTLE – Picture a small farm under a blazing hot sky.	西雅图——想象一下炎热的天空下有一家小农场。


An intense drought is afflicting the surrounding region, prospects for the next harvest are bleak, and the financial system lacks the capacity to provide the loans farmers need to get by.	严重的干旱影响着周围地区，下一次收成前景十分暗淡，而金融系统却不具备为农民提供应急贷款的能力。


This scenario describes today’s southern Africa, which is in the grips of an epic drought.	这副景象描绘的是今天的南部非洲，这里正在遭受一场历史性干旱的侵袭。


As it happens, it also describes eastern Nebraska in the “Dust Bowl” years of the early 1930s – a period through which my own family lived.	这碰巧也是内布拉斯加州东部二十世纪三十年代初“尘暴”天气的写照——这是我和家人的亲身经历。


My father, Ralph Raikes, was the first in his family to graduate from college.	我的父亲拉尔夫·莱克斯是家族大学毕业的第一人。


After working for Standard Oil in California, he stopped by his parents’ farm on his way to Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he planned to pursue graduate studies at MIT.	毕业后，他先在加利福尼亚标准石油公司就职，而后在他父母的农场中途停留，打算之后前往马萨诸塞州剑桥市攻读麻省理工学院的研究生学位。


He never made it.	他没能实现这个愿望。


He had to stay in Nebraska and help my grandfather save the family farm from the banks, which had already repossessed one-third of the land.	他被迫留在了内布拉斯加，帮助我的祖父挽救家庭农场免于被银行收回，当时银行已经收回了三分之一的土地。


The most important change my father made was in his mindset: he came to think of the farm not as a subsistence operation, but as a family business.	我父亲最重要的改变在于心态：他没有把农场视作维持生计的小本经营，而是视作家族生意。


He turned to the University of Nebraska, where he had received his undergraduate degree, and acquired hybrid corn and other improved seeds that the university was developing.	他求助于自己本科毕业的内布拉斯加大学，从那里拿到了这所大学正在研发的杂交玉米和其他改良种子。


Then he tracked inputs and weather conditions, which was rarely done at that time.	而后他严密监控投入的生产资料及天气条件，这在当时是非常罕见的。


My father realized that he couldn’t go it alone, and that he would need better access to financing.	我父亲意识到他不能单打独斗，他需要好的渠道进行融资。


So he helped guide – first as a customer, and later as an adviser and director – Farm Credit, a national banking cooperative network, in its efforts to help local farmers weather the Dust Bowl years.	因此他协助创建了农业信贷协会——最初是以客户的身份，后来逐渐成为顾问和董事，这是一套国家银行合作网络，其目的是帮助当地农民度过尘暴天气。


He also helped found the Nebraska Farm Business Association, which aggregated the data that he and his peers collected, so that they could determine best practices.	他还协助建立了内布拉斯加州农场业协会，该协会对他和同行搜集的数据进行汇总，以便确定最佳的行为惯例。


And he worked together with my mother, Alice, who ran the family poultry business.	他与我的母亲爱丽丝一起工作，我母亲负责经营家族的禽类企业。


Farm Credit and the University of Nebraska’s labs and greenhouses emerged out of United States government programs that had been created to improve the agriculture sector’s performance.	农业信贷协会和内布拉斯加大学实验室及温室源于美国政府计划，目的是改善农业领域的业绩。


That sector was under water in 1933; with one-quarter of the population living on farms at the time, more investment was needed.	1933年农业境况低迷； 当时有1/4的人口以务农为生，迫切需要加大对这一领域的投资。


That year, Congress passed the first “farm bill,” the Agricultural Adjustment Act, which boosted investment in the rural economy and helped lift farm income by 50% within two years.	那一年，国会通过了首部“农业法案”——即“农业调整法案”——推动了对农村经济的投资，成功地在两年内将农民收入提高了50%。


Federal farm programs treated farming as a business enterprise, enabling businessmen like my father to prosper.	联邦农业计划将农场视为一种商业企业，从而使我父亲这样的商人能够兴旺发达。


Eighty years later, African farmers need to make the same switch, by treating their subsistence operations as family-owned enterprises.	八年后，非洲农民需要做出同样的转变，把维持生计的小本经营看成家族产业。


And, like my father during the Dust Bowl years, they have novel means at their disposal: a wide range of new seeds and other technologies have been developed for African family farms – those with 4-5 acres or less – to use in the field.	而且，就像当年尘暴期我的父亲一样，他们不乏新的手段可以支配：为非洲农场研发了各式各样的新种子和其他技术——那些拥有4-5英亩土地或者更少的农户可以在自己的田里利用新技术和种子。


In October, a group of scientists received the World Food Prize for producing and disseminating a sweet potato variety that adds vitamin A to Sub-Saharan Africans’ diets, and other new seed varieties are helping farmers survive the harvest-crushing drought.	10月，一群科学家因生产和传播一种新品种甘薯而获得世界粮食奖，这种新品种甘薯在撒哈拉以南非洲人的饮食中加入了维他命A，此外还有其他新型种子品种正在帮助农民度过影响农业收成的旱灾。


But, as a recent report from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) makes clear, government investment must follow the science.	但非洲绿色革命联盟（AGRA）最近的一份报告表明，政府投资必须遵循科学原则。


Agriculture comprises almost two-thirds of Sub-Saharan Africa’s workforce, and in 2003 the African Union called for countries to increase their investment in the sector to an ambitious 10% of all government spending.	农业几乎占到撒哈拉以南非洲劳动力的三分之二，2003年非洲联盟雄心勃勃地呼吁各国将农业部门投资提升到所有政府开支的10%。


Only 13 countries answered that call, but their investments – in research and development, services that help farmers take advantage of new research findings, credit and financing initiatives, commodity exchanges, and other marketing efforts – have already paid dividends.	只有十三个国家响应了这一呼吁，但他们的投资——在研发领域、帮助农民利用新研究成果的服务、信贷和融资计划、商品交易所和其他营销努力——均已经产生了丰厚的红利。


Those 13 countries have experienced marked improvements in agricultural production, per capita GDP, and nutrition.	这十三个国家的农业生产、人均国内总产值和营养状况均得到显著的改善。


Government investment paves the way for private-sector investment, and it could be a game-changer for African farmers, who have operated at subsistence levels for far too long.	政府投资为私营部门投资铺平了道路，对长期以来停留在维持生计低水平上的非洲农民来说，这可能彻底改变游戏规则。


Only about 6% of rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa receive loans from financial institutions.	只有6%的撒哈拉以南非洲农村家庭可以从金融机构那里获得贷款。


Moreover, almost two-thirds of African farmland soil is missing key nutrients, and many farmers lack the technical knowledge and resources to restore their land’s fertility, leaving them unable to take full advantage of new technologies.	不仅如此，近2/3的非洲农田土壤缺少关键营养元素，而且很多农民缺乏恢复土地肥力的资源和技术知识，导致他们无法充分利用新技术。


African farmers growing new crop varieties are increasing their yields by only 28%, compared to 88% for farmers in Asia.	非洲农民种植新作物品种单产仅增加28%，而亚洲农民的增长比例则高达88%左右。


My parents made certain that all five of their children graduated from college.	我的父母确保他们的每一个子女都读到大学毕业。


Like them, farmers everywhere want to ensure that their children lead healthy, prosperous lives; and they all recognize the importance of education.	像他们一样，世界各地的农民都希望确保自己的孩子过上健康、富足的生活； 而且他们都认识到教育的重要性。


The farmers I have met around the world often just want to sell enough extra produce to pay their health bills and put their children through school.	我在世界各地碰到的农民往往只希望出售足够的多余农产品来支付自己的医疗费用和送子女上学。


They take advantage of opportunities when they arise, and they position their children to reap larger profits in the future.	他们在机会出现时紧紧抓住，他们努力确保自己的孩子能在未来能够获取更大的利润。


One hopes that an American story of economic progress, like that of my family, will soon be an African story, too.	我们希望像我家这样的美国经济进步故事将会很快发生在非洲。


With so many new innovations becoming available, Africa’s family farmers need their governments to invest in their future.	随着诸多创新成果集中上市，非洲家庭农场主需要他们的政府为他们的未来投资。


If they do, that future will look much better than today’s dusty and desperate reality.	如果政府做到这一点，未来将比今天尘土飞扬的绝望现实要好得多。


Africa at Risk	身处危险中的非洲


ADDIS ABABA – Climate change will hit Africa – a continent that has contributed virtually nothing to bring it about – first and hardest.	亚的斯亚贝巴——气候变化最先、也最沉重地打击了非洲这块从未造成过气候变化的大陆。


Aside from Antarctica, Africa is the only continent that has not industrialized.	除南极洲以外，非洲恐怕是唯一一块尚未实现工业化的大陆。


Indeed, since 1980’s the industrialization that had taken place in Africa has by and large been reversed.	事实上，在20世纪80年代以后，非洲大陆的工业化进程就总体而言已经发生了逆转。


Africa has thus contributed nothing to the historical accumulation of greenhouse gases through carbon-based industrialization.	非洲也因此没有在以碳为基础的工业化温室气体积累中扮演任何角色。


Moreover, its current contribution is also negligible, practically all of it coming from deforestation and degradation of forests and farmland.	此外，非洲目前的碳排放也微乎其微，非洲所有的碳排放几乎全部来自森林砍伐以及森林和农田的逐步退化。


Yet climate change will hit Africa hardest, because it will cripple the continent’s vulnerable agricultural sector, on which 70% of the population depends.	但气候变化对非洲的打击却最大，因为它严重影响到非洲大陆脆弱的农业部门，而农业部门养活了70%的非洲人口。


All estimates of the possible impact of global warming suggest that a large part of the continent will become drier, and that the continent as a whole will experience greater climatic variability.	对全球变暖可能影响的所有预测都表明非洲大部分地区将会更加干旱，而从整体而言非洲大陆将出现更为剧烈的气候变化。


We know what the impact of periodic droughts have been on the lives of tens of millions of Africans.	我们已经知道周期性干旱对数千万非洲民众生活所造成的影响。


We can therefore imagine what the impact of a drier climate on agriculture is likely to be.	因此我们可以想见气候变干可能对农业造成的影响。


Conditions in this vital economic sector will become even more precarious than they currently are.	与现有状况相比，这一生死攸关的经济领域的稳定性将会进一步下降。


Africa will not only be hit hardest, but it will be hit first.	非洲遭受的打击不但最重，而且也最早。


Indeed, the long dreaded impact of climate change is already upon us.	实际上，人们已经在遭受惧怕已久的气候变化的影响。


The current drought covering much of East Africa – far more severe than past droughts – has been directly associated with climate change.	东非绝大部分地区都在发生旱灾——这场旱灾与气候变化有着直接的关系，而且也比以往更加严重。


The upcoming climate negotiations ought to address the specific problems of Africa and similarly vulnerable poor parts of the world.	即将开始的气候谈判应当针对非洲和同样脆弱的世界贫困地区所出现的具体情况。


This requires, first and most importantly, reducing global warming to the apparently inevitable increase of two degrees Celsius, beyond which lies an environmental catastrophe that could be unmanageable for poor and vulnerable countries.	第一步，也是最重要的一步，是要将全球变暖控制在看似不可避免的两摄氏度的范围之内，如果超出这个幅度，它所带来的环境灾难就会使贫困和脆弱国家无法承受。


Second, adequate resources should be made available to poor and vulnerable regions and countries to enable them to adapt to climate change.	其次，应该为贫困和脆弱的国家和地区提供充足的资源，以便使它们能够适应气候的变化。


Climate change, which was largely brought about by the activities of developed countries, has made it difficult for poor and vulnerable countries to fight poverty.	总体而言由发达国家活动所造成的气候变化已经加大了贫困和脆弱国家战胜贫困的难度，导致发展环境进一步恶化。


It has created a more hostile environment for development. No amount of money will undo the damage done.	由此造成的损失无论花多少钱都无法弥补。


But adequate investment in mitigating the damage could partly resolve the problem.	但投入充足的资金减轻损失或许能够部分解决问题。


Developed countries are thus morally obliged to pay partial compensation to poor and vulnerable countries and regions to cover part of the cost of the investments needed to adapt to climate change.	因此，发达国家也有义务向贫困脆弱国家及地区支付部分弥补气候变化所需投资的相关赔偿。


Various estimates have been made of the scale of investment required by those countries.	人们对上述国家所要求的投资规模做出了各种猜想。


One conservative estimate – which has a reasonable chance of being accepted precisely because it is conservative – calls for $50 billion per year as of 2015, increasing to $100 billion by 2020 and beyond.	一种保守的估计提出到2015年前每年投资500亿美元，到2020年及以后则增加到1000亿美元——这一提案之所以有可能被采纳也正是因为它比较保守。


A transitional financing arrangement would be put in place for the period 2010-2015.	2010－2015年间将实行过渡性融资计划。


Some argue that developed countries cannot come up with such sums, particularly given their current economic challenges.	有人提出特别是在当前的经济困境下，发达国家拿不出这么大的数目。


But no one has so far argued that the cost of damage caused to the development prospects of poor countries and regions is less than the amount of compensation being offered to cover adjustment costs.	但迄今为止还没有人提出贫困国家和地区发展前景所遭受的损失达不到支付调整费用的补偿额。


The reason is obvious: the damage caused is many times higher than the compensation being requested.	原因非常明显：所造成的损失数倍于所要求补偿的数额。


Nonetheless, it is argued, whatever the real cost of the damage, developed countries currently cannot afford to provide that kind of money.	即便如此，仍有人提出无论损失的实际数额怎样，发达国家目前都无法支付这笔金额。


But we all know that these countries and their national banks were able to spend trillions of dollars in a few months to bail out their bankers, who earned super-profits when the going was good.	可我们都知道这些国家和它们的央行有能力在数月之内耗费数万亿美元的巨资来救助它们在经济运行平稳时赚取了超额利润的银行。


When the good times ended, taxpayers and governments were prepared to rescue them and to ensure that they continued to receive their extraordinary bonuses.	好日子结束时，纳税人和政府准备救援它们，确保它们继续得到额外的津贴。


If the developed world is able to pay trillions of dollars to clean up its bankers’ mess, how is it possible that it cannot afford to pay billions of dollars to clean up a mess that it created, and that is threatening the survival of whole continents?	如果发达国家能拿出数万亿美元清理银行的混乱局面，那么它又怎么可能拿不出区区数十亿美元来为自己制造的威胁到世界民众生存的混乱局面缮后？


Clearly this is not about the availability of resources. It is about the inappropriate priorities in how resources are allocated.	显然问题的关键并不在于有没有相关的资源，而在于资源分配的顺序恰不恰当。


It is about moral values that make it appropriate to rescue bankers, who expect everyone but themselves to pay for the mess they created, and inappropriate to compensate the world’s poorest people, whose survival is threatened precisely because of the mess created by developed countries.	问题的关键是在某些人价值取向中认为应当救援银行，哪怕银行希望除自己之外的所有人为自己造成的混乱负责，也不应该补偿世界最贫困的民众，他们的生存已经在发达国家所造成的混乱中受到了威胁。


I cannot believe that people in developed counties, when informed about the issues, would support rescuing bankers and oppose partial compensation for poor countries and regions.	我无法相信发达国家的民众在了解事实真相后，会支持援助银行而反对对贫困国家地区给予部分的补偿。


I cannot believe that they will let such an injustice occur.	我无法相信他们会放任这种不公平的现象。


If they are not expressing their outrage over the injustice of it all, it can only be because they are inadequately informed.	如果他们没有表达对这种不公平现象的愤怒，那只能是因为他们还不完全了解事实的真相。


Africa, Climate Change, and the G-8 Summit	非洲、气候变化和八国峰会


British Prime Minister Tony Blair has declared that the two issues at the center of the G-8 Summit this July will be African poverty and global climate change.	英国首相托尼·布莱尔已经宣布，今年七月举行的八国峰会的两大主要议题将是非洲贫困与全球气候变化。


These may seem to be distinct issues. In fact, they are linked.	这两个话题也许看起来大相径庭，但事实上，它们却是相互关联的。


A trip I took to a village in the Tigre region in northern Ethiopia shows why.	我去了埃塞俄比亚北部的Tigre地区的一个村庄，这趟旅行能解释其中缘由。


One morning, I was taken to a dry riverbed at the village’s edge.	一天早晨，我被带到村庄边缘一个干涸的河床。


Farmers were digging a pit in the riverbed, down to the water table approximately two meters below ground level.	农民们正在河床中挖一个深坑，一直挖到地面以下两米多的水管处。


They explained that until recently this was a perennial river – one that flows throughout the year – but now the river stops flowing during the dry season.	他们解释说，这条河不久之前还是一条四季不枯竭、全年流淌不息的河，但是现在这条河一到旱季就断流。


Only when the annual rains begin in the summer does water reappear in the river bed.	只有在每年夏天的降雨来临之时，河床里才会有河水。


Until then, water-starved communities dig for water, if they can find it and if they can afford to pump it out.	就是从那个时候开始，只要能够找到水源并且有足够的钱把水抽出来，缺水地区就会挖坑寻水。


In northern Ethiopia, as in much of Africa, the rain cycle has changed markedly in recent years.	和非洲其他诸多地区一样，北埃塞俄比亚最近几年的雨循环已经发生显著变化。


Ethiopian village life has long depended on two crops, one during a short rain in March and April, and the main crop during the long rain in the summer months.	埃塞俄比亚内的村庄长期以来依赖于两种农作物。 一种农作物生长于三月和四月的短雨季，而主要农作物则在夏天的长雨季中生长。


In recent years, the short rains have failed entirely, and long rains have been erratic.	最近几年，短雨季已经完全消失，而长雨季也变得不再稳定。


Hunger is omnipresent.	饥荒正在蔓延。


Perhaps half of the children are severely underweight.	或许已有一半的儿童体重严重不足。


Much of arid sub-Saharan Africa, notably in the Sahel (the region just south of the Sahara desert), has experienced a pronounced drop in rainfall over the past quarter-century.	撒哈拉沙漠以南的大部分干旱地区，尤其是Sahel（该地区就在撒哈拉沙漠南面），过去25年的降雨量已经明显下滑。


This decline coincided with a rise in the surface temperature of the neighboring Indian Ocean, a hint that the decline in rainfall is in fact part of the longer-term process of man-made global warming.	与此同时，离它不远的印度洋却水温上升，这一现象暗示着，降雨量的减少实际是人类一手造成的长期全球性气候变暖的一部分。


Failures of rainfall contribute not only to famines and chronic hunger, but also to the onset of violence when hungry people clash over scarce food and water.	降雨量的不足不仅导致了连年饥荒，还引发了暴力活动，饥饿的人们为争夺稀少的食物和水源而冲突不断。


When violence erupts in water-starved regions such as Darfur, Sudan, political leaders tend to view the problems in narrow political terms.	当缺水地区，诸如达尔富尔和苏丹，爆发暴力活动时，政治领导人从狭隘的政治角度来看待问题。


If they act at all, they mobilize peacekeepers, international sanctions, and humanitarian aid.	一旦行动，他们就会动用和平维护者、国际制裁和人道主义援助。


But Darfur, like Tigre, needs a development strategy to fight hunger and drought even more than it needs peacekeepers. Soldiers cannot keep peace among desperately hungry people.	但是，与Tigre一样，对达尔富尔来说，比起和平维护者来说，它更需要一个能够抵抗饥荒和干旱的发展策略。


One course of action must be to help impoverished African regions to “adapt” to climate change and to escape the poverty trap.	该行动必须要有一个能帮助贫瘠的非洲地区“适应”气候变化并脱离贫穷陷阱的过程。


Water-stressed regions like Ethiopia and Sudan can adapt, at least in part, through improved technologies such as “drip irrigation,” rainwater harvesting, improved water storage facilities, deep wells, and agro-forestry techniques that make best use of scarce rainfall. Better land-management practices (the re-planting of degraded forests, for example) can recharge underground water aquifers.	通过技术改进，诸如能最有效利用不足降水的“滴灌”、人工汇集雨水、改良后的储水设备、深井以及农业林学技术，使埃塞俄比亚和苏丹这样的缺水地区至少在一定程度上适应气候变化。


Poor countries cannot afford these technologies on their own.	贫穷国家本身无力担负这些技术的费用。


Nor should they have to.	这也不应该由他们来承担。


Help for poor countries in Africa and elsewhere to adapt to climate change should not be described as charity or aid, but rather as compensation for damages being imposed on the poorest people on the planet.	对非洲或其他任何地方的贫穷国家提供使他们适应气候变化的帮助不应当被视为是一种慈善或援助，而是对这个星球上最贫困的、强制性忍受各种毁坏的人们的一种补偿。


Greater help for these countries to escape from extreme poverty has been promised for decades but has not been delivered.	数十年来，向这些国家提供更多使其脱离极度贫困的承诺一再出现，却从未兑现。


In addition to adapting to climate change, the world must also reduce future risks to the planet by cutting back on emissions of greenhouse gases, which are the source of man-made climate change.	除了要适应气候变化，全世界也必须减少温室气体的排放以降低这个星球未来所面临的风险。 温室气体正是人为气候改变的罪魁祸首。


While adaptation to climate change is necessary – because it is already occurring – this is not enough.	虽然对气候变化的适应是必需的——因为它已经发生了——但这还不够。


If the world fails to mitigate future climate change, the effects of rising temperatures, increasing droughts, more numerous and severe tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a spread of tropical diseases will pose huge threats to the entire planet.	如果全世界不能减缓未来气候变化的趋势，那么上升的气温、愈发严重的旱情、愈加频繁严重的热带��暴、不断上涨的海平线以及热带疾病的扩散将会给全球带来严峻考验。


The famines in Ethiopia and the violence in Darfur suggest what can lie ahead.	埃塞俄比亚的饥荒和达尔富尔的暴力活动已经预示着将会面临的情况。


The best way to reduce long-term climate change is to reduce carbon emissions.	减缓长期气候变化趋势的最佳方法是减少碳化物的排放。 这至少有三个办法： 改用非碳能源，诸如太阳能和核能。


There are at least three options: shift to non-carbon energy sources such as solar or nuclear energy; capture and dispose of the carbon dioxide emitted at carbon-based power plants; economize on energy use, for example by shifting to hybrid automobiles and trucks.	不允许以碳作能源的发电厂释放二氧化碳气体，对二氧化碳气体作妥善处理。 节约使用能源，比如改用混合型汽车和卡车。


Most likely, all three of these methods will have to play a role.	很有可能，这三种方法都必须发挥作用。


The effort to reduce greenhouse gases will require decades of action, but, given the long lead times in overhauling the world’s energy systems, we must start now.	要减少温室气体还需要很多努力，但是，鉴于改革全球能源系统需要很长时间，我们必须现在就开始。


Rich countries need to lead the way.	富国应当担当起领头羊的任务。


It is ironic that the United States, which portrays itself as a friend of democracy and impoverished countries, gives the smallest share of its GNP in aid among the rich countries, and also refuses to participate in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.	颇为讽刺的是，向来自诩为民主和穷困国家之友的美国，与其他富国相比，提供的援助只占其国民生产总值的最小份额，它还拒绝参加为减少温室气体排放的全球行动。


This is especially ironic because African countries like Ethiopia stand steadfastly and bravely with the US in the fight for freedom and against terrorism, even as they struggle with hunger, disease, and famine.	这点尤为讽刺，因为埃塞俄比亚这样的非洲国家即使在饥饿、疾病和饥荒中艰苦挣扎，他们还是坚定不移、勇往无惧地与美国一起站在争取自由与反对恐怖主义的同一战线上。


Moreover, countries like Ethiopia are making valiant, indeed remarkable, efforts to overcome their problems, despite the lack of adequate, and long-promised, help from the world’s richest countries.	此外，像埃塞俄比亚这样的国家正在采取坚定有效的措施来克服他们的问题，尽管没有得到来自世界最富有国家承诺许久的任何适当帮助。


Africans suffering from hunger and drought, and indeed poor people everywhere, have a right to ask much more of the US and other rich countries.	正在遭受着饥荒和旱灾的非洲人民，以及世界各地的贫困人们，都有权利来向美国和其他富国提出更多要求。


Tony Blair is right to call on his rich-country colleagues to follow through on their unfulfilled promises.	托尼·布莱尔号召他的富国同僚们来履行完他们未尽责的承诺，他做对了。


Africa’s Path from Poverty	非洲脱贫之路


BEIJING – All low-income countries have the potential for dynamic economic growth.	北京—所有低收入国家都有实现充满活力的经济增长的潜力。


We know this because we have seen it happen repeatedly: a poor, agrarian economy transforms itself into a middle- or even high-income urban economy in one or two generations.	我们知道这一点，因为过去曾经一再发生这一幕：贫穷的农村经济在一两代人的时间里摇身一变成为中等收入甚至高收入城市经济。


The key is to capture the window of opportunity for industrialization arising from the relocation of light manufacturing from higher-income countries.	关键是抓住高收入国家轻型制造业重新布局带来的工业化机会窗口。


That was true in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and it remains true today.	在十九和二十世纪是如此，今天仍然是如此。


Japan seized its opportunity in the years following World War II, using labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and simple electronics, to drive its economy until rising labor costs eroded its comparative advantage in those sectors.	日本在二战后抓住了这一机会，用劳动密集型行业（如防止和简单电子）驱动经济，直至劳动力成本遏制了这些行业的比较优势。


That shift then allowed other low-income Asian economies – South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and to some extent Malaysia and Thailand – to follow in Japan's footsteps.	接着，这一转变又让低收入亚洲经济体——韩国、中国台湾、中国香港、新加坡以及某种程度上的马来西亚和泰国——效仿了日本的榜样。


China, of course, is the region's most recent traveler along this well-trodden path.	当然，中国是这条老路上的最新旅客。


After more than three decades of breakneck economic growth, it has transformed itself from one of the poorest countries on earth to the world's largest economy.	在经历了三十多年的高速增长后，中国已经从世界最贫穷国家之一转变为世界最大经济体。


And now that China, too, is beginning to lose its comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries, other developing countries – especially in Africa – are set to take its place.	而如今，中国也开始失去其在劳动密集型行业的比较优势，其他发展中国家——特别是非洲国家——即将取代中国的位置。


Indeed, ever since the Industrial Revolution, the rise of light manufacturing has driven a dramatic rise in national income.	事实上，自工业革命以来，轻型制造业的崛起驱动了国民收入的大幅上升。


The United Kingdom's economic transformation started with textiles.	英国经济转型从纺织业开始。


In Belgium, France, Sweden, Denmark, Italy, and Switzerland, light manufacturing led the way.	比利时、法国、瑞典、丹麦、意大利和瑞士都是轻型制造业领路。


Similarly, in the United States, cities like Boston, Baltimore, and Philadelphia became centers for producing textiles, garments, and shoes.	类似地，在美国，波士顿、巴尔的摩和费城等城市也都曾经是纺织品、服装和鞋子的生产中心。


Until recently, few believed that Africa, too, could become a center for modern manufacturing.	知道最近，仍很少有人相信非洲也可以成为现代制造业的中心。


But, with the right policies, there is no reason why African countries could not follow a similar trajectory.	但是，有正确的政策，没有理由认为非洲国家不可能走上同样的轨迹。


Consider land-locked Ethiopia, which only ten years ago seemed to be an especially bad bet.	以内陆国家埃塞俄比亚为例。 十年前，它看起来仍然毫无前途。


But then the country built an industrial park near Addis Ababa and invited the Chinese shoemaker Huajian to open a factory there.	但随后它在亚的斯亚贝巴附近建设了一个工业园，邀请中国制鞋商华建国际前去设厂。


Huajian opened its doors in January 2012 with two production lines and some 600 workers.	华建国际在2012年开张，拥有两条生产线和600名左右的工人。


By the end of the year, it had employed 2,000 Ethiopians and doubled the country's exports of leather shoes.	到当年年底，华建国际雇用了2,000名埃塞俄比亚人，让埃塞俄比亚皮鞋出口翻了一番。


Today, the company has 3,500 workers in Ethiopia producing more than two million shoes a year.	如今，华建国际在埃塞俄比亚有3,500名工人，每年生产超过两百万双鞋。


In 2013, spurred by Huajian's success, the Ethiopian government created a new industrial park, with space for 22 factory units.	2013年，受华建国际成功的鼓舞，埃塞俄比亚政府建造了一个可容纳22个工厂单位的新工业园。


Within three months, all of them had been leased by export-oriented companies from Turkey, Korea, Taiwan, China, and elsewhere.	不出三个月，所有单位被来自土耳其、韩国、中国台湾、中国和其他地区的出口导向型公司租赁一空。


The World Bank has provided $250 million to support the continued construction of these industrial parks.	世界银行提供了2. 5亿美元支持工业园的继续建设。


The Ethiopian success story is just the start.	埃塞俄比亚的成功故事只是个开始。


As investors learn more about Africa, they will increasingly see what it has to offer.	随着投资者对非洲了解的深入，他们将日益看到非洲的计划。


Indeed, the cost of labor in Africa is competitive enough that Ethiopia could attract companies from countries as poor as Bangladesh.	事实上，非洲劳动力成本优势非常大，埃塞俄比亚甚至可以吸引孟加拉国等穷国的公司。


Africa has a surplus of agricultural labor and too few other jobs.	非洲农业劳动力过生，其他工作岗位又过少。


As foreign firms launch operations in the labor-intensive sectors in which Africa has a comparative advantage, they will train the local workforce.	只要外国企业在非洲拥有比较优势的劳动密集型行业开展经营，就能训练本地劳动力。


Some workers will become managers.	一些工人将变为管理者。


They will become familiar with the technology and learn how to maintain consistent quality in the production line.	他们将熟悉技术，学习如何维持生产线的质量。


They will establish contacts with international buyers and investors.	他们将与国际买家和投资者签订合同。


And, eventually, some of them will be able to raise capital and start firms of their own – export companies owned and operated by Africans.	最终，他们中的一些人将能够筹集资本自己创业——非洲人拥有和经营的出口公司。


Mauritius shows the path ahead.	毛里求斯就是很好的例子。


In the 1970s, the government set up industrial parks to process textiles and garments for export.	20世纪70年代，毛里求斯政府建设了工业园生产纺织品和服装以供出口。


At the time, most of the owners were from Taiwan or Hong Kong; today, more than 70% of the island's industrial companies are locally owned.	当时，一些工厂的所有者来自中国台湾和中国香港； 如今，毛里求斯70%以上的工业公司为本国所有。


A carefully focused export strategy is crucial.	谨慎而集中的出口战略至关重要。


The international development community and many African governments want to work toward regional integration, linking the markets of 55 African countries.	国际发展机构和许多非洲国家政府希望朝地区一体化方向努力，将55个非洲国家的市场联系起来。


This might have its advantages, but it should not be a priority.	这也许会带来优势，但不适合作为当务之急。


Africa today accounts for just 1.9% of global GDP, compared to 21% for the United States and 23% for Europe.	如今，非洲只占全球ＧＤＰ的１. ９％，而美国为21%，欧洲为23%。


Developing countries must use their limited resources in the most effective way, and there is no question where the most attractive opportunities in Africa are to be found.	发展中国家必须将有限的资源用在效率最高的地方，毫无疑问，非洲最诱人的机会还有待发现。


For example, instead of investing heavily in the infrastructure needed for regional integration, a country like Ethiopia would be better off building industrial parks and linking them by road to ports in Djibouti.	比如，埃塞俄比��等国家不应该大量投资于地区一体化所需要的基础设施，投资于建设工业园并用公路将它们与吉布提的港口连接起来效果更好。


With the right growth strategy, far-reaching change can come within a person's lifetime – sometimes more than once.	有了正确的增长战略，我们在有生之年就可以看到深远的变化——甚至多次变化。


My native Taiwan is now a high-income economy.	我的出生地台湾如今已是高收入经济体。


But when I was born there, in 1952, the island was poorer than almost every country in Africa.	但在1952年我出生时，台湾岛比非洲几乎所有国家都要穷。


Then it happened to me again.	后来我再一次经历了这一转变。


I moved to mainland China in 1979, when the country's per capita income was less than one-third of Sub-Saharan Africa's.	1979年我来到中国大陆，当时，中国大陆人均收入只有撒哈拉以南非洲的不到三分之一。


Today, China has become an upper-middle-income country, and it is on track to become a high-income country by 2020.	如今，中国已成为中高收入国家，并且极有可能在2020年步入高收入行列。


My hope is that I can witness a third economic transformation in my lifetime, this time in Ethiopia and other countries in Africa.	我希望能在我的有生之年看到第三次经济转型——在埃塞俄比亚和其他非洲国家。


If they stay on the tried and tested path of those who have gone before, there is every chance that I will.	如果它们能够坚持其他国家已经尝试并考验过的道路，我的这一愿望实现的可能性相当大。


The Promise of Digital Health	数字医疗的憧憬


BASEL – Africa has changed remarkably, and for the better, since I first worked as a young doctor in Angola some 20 years ago.	巴塞尔—自20年前年轻的我在安哥拉行医以来，非洲已经发生了天翻地覆的变化——越变越好。


But no change has been more obvious than the way the continent has adopted mobile technology.	但变化最显著的地方还是非洲的移动技术。


People in Africa – and, indeed, throughout low- and middle-income countries – are seizing the opportunities that technology provides, using mobile phones for everything from making payments to issuing birth certificates, to gaining access to health care.	非洲人——实际上，是所有中低收入国家的人——正在抓住技术所提供的机会，将移动电话应用于从支付到颁发出生证和获得医疗服务的方方面面。


The benefit of mobile technologies lies in access.	移动技术的优势在于通道。


Barriers like geographical distance and low resources, which have long prevented billions of people from getting the care they need, are much easier to overcome in the digital age.	地理距离和资源匮乏等障碍长期阻碍数十亿人获得他们所需要的看护，而在数字时代，这些障碍可以轻易克服。


And, indeed, there are countless ways in which technology can be deployed to improve health-care access and delivery.	事实上，技术可以通过数不清的方式用于改善医疗普及和实现（access and delivery）。


Of course, this is not new information, and a growing number of technology-based health initiatives have taken shape in recent years.	当然，这并非什么新消息，并且近几年来也取得了越来越多的基于技术的医疗创新。


But only a few have reached scale, and achieved long-term sustainability; the majority of projects have not made it past the pilot phase.	但只有少数创新形成了规模并实现了长期可持续性； 大部分项目尚未渡过实验阶段。


The result is a highly fragmented landscape of digital solutions – one that, in some cases, can add extra strain to existing health systems.	结果是数字方案呈现出高度的碎片化特征——在某些例子中，这给现有医疗体系带来了额外的约束。


The first step to addressing this problem is to identify which factors breed success – and which impede it.	解决这一问题的第一步是并别那些因素能带来成功——以及哪些因素阻碍成功。


Here, perhaps the most important observation relates to how the solution is linked to the reality on the ground.	在这方面，最重要的观察与方案如何与现实联系起来有关。


After all, technology is an enabler for the innovation of health-care delivery, not an end in itself.	毕竟，技术只是医疗实现的创新的促成因素，其本身绝非终点。


Solutions that focus on end-users, whether health practitioners or patients, have the best chance of succeeding.	注重终端用户——不管是医生还是患者——的方案最有可能取得成功。


Fundamental to this approach is the recognition that what users need are not necessarily the most advanced technologies, but rather solutions that are easy to use and implement.	这一方法的关键是认识到用户需要的东西未必是最先进的技术，而是便于使用和实施的方案。


In fact, seemingly outdated technologies like voice and text messages can be far more useful tools for the intended users than the latest apps or cutting-edge innovations in, say, nanotechnology.	事实上，看似过时的技术，如语音和文字短信，可以成为对预期用户极为有用的工具，远比最新APP或（比如）纳米技术的尖端创新更有用。


Consider the Community-based Hypertension Improvement Project in Ghana, run by the Novartis Foundation, which I lead, and FHI 360.	以加纳基于社区的高血压改善计划为例。 该计划由我所领导的诺华基金会（Novartis Foundation）和FHI 360负责运营。


The project supports patients in self-managing their condition through regular mobile medication reminders, as well as advice on necessary lifestyle changes.	该计划支持患者通过定期移动医疗提醒功能，根据必要的生活方式改变建议进行自我管理。


This approach is successful because it is patient-centered and leverages information and communication technology (ICT) tools that are readily available and commonly used.	这一方法取得成功的原因是它已患者为中心，并利用现成和常用的信息和通讯技术（ICT）工具。


In a country where mobile penetration exceeds 80% but only a few people have smartphones, such simple solutions can have the greatest impact.	加纳的移动电话渗透率超过80%，但只有少数人拥有智能手机，但如此简单的方案仍起到了最大的效果。


For health practitioners, digital solutions must be perceived as boosting efficiency, rather than adding to their already-heavy workload.	对医疗工作者而言，数字方案必须让他们感到能够增加效率，而不是徒增已经十分沉重的工作负担。


Co-creating solutions with people experienced in delivering health care in low-resource settings can help to ensure that the solutions are adopted at scale.	与富有在低资源条件下实现医疗服务的经验的人士合作制定方案有助于确保方案可以形成规模化实施。


For example, the telemedicine network that the Novartis Foundation and its partners rolled out with the Ghana Health Service was a direct response to the need, expressed by health-care practitioners on the ground, to expand the reach of medical expertise.	比如，诺华基金会及其合作伙伴与加纳卫生部共同开展的远程医疗网络直接响应一线医疗工作者扩大医疗专家覆盖范围的要求。


The network connects frontline health workers with a simple phone call to consultation centers in referral hospitals several hours away, where doctors and specialists are available around-the-clock.	该网络让一线卫生工作者一个电话就能接通数小时里程之外的转诊医院咨询中心，那里的医生和专家随时候命。


From the outset, the project was a response to an expressed need to expand the reach of medical expertise, and was fully operated on the ground by Ghana Health Service staff, which made this model sustainable at scale.	从一���始，该项目就是为了响应扩大医疗专家覆盖面的要求，并完全由加纳卫生部工作人员负责运营，这让该模式实现上规模、可持续。


To realize the full potential of digital health, solutions need to be integrated into national health systems.	为了充分实现数字医疗的潜力，解决方案必须与国家卫生系统相结合。


Only then can digital technology accelerate progress toward universal health coverage and address countries’ priority health needs.	惟其如此，数字技术才能加快全民医疗覆盖和解决国家紧迫医疗需求的进程。


Collaboration across the health and ICT sectors, both public and private, is essential.	医疗和ICT的合作——包括私人和公共合作——至关重要。


Multidisciplinary partnerships driven by the sustained leadership of senior government officials must guide progress, beginning at the planning stage.	必须通过高级政府官员的持续领导推动的多学科合作来指引进程，第一步是规划阶段。


Intra-governmental collaboration, dedicated financing for digital health solutions, and effective governance mechanisms will also be vital to successful strategies.	致力于为数字卫生解决方案提供融资的政府间合作以及有效的治理机制也是成功战略的关键。


Digital technologies offer huge opportunities to improve the way health care is delivered.	数字技术为我们提供了改善医疗实现方式的巨大的机会。


If we are to seize them, we must learn from past experience.	要想把握这些机会，我们必须从过去的经验中汲取教训。


By remaining focused on the reality of end-users and on priority health needs, rather than being dazzled by the latest technology, we can fulfil the promise of digital health.	通过专注于终端用户的现实和最重要的医疗需求，而不是迷失于最新技术，我们能够实现数字医疗的憧憬


Africa Still Rising	非洲仍在冉冉升起


JOHANNESBURG – Is the honeymoon over for African economies?	约翰内斯堡——非洲经济体的蜜月期是否已经结束？


Less than a decade ago, it seemed that the continent’s economic dreams were beginning to come true, with many countries experiencing impressive GDP growth and development.	不到十年前，随着许多国家取得惊人的GDP增长和发展，非洲大陆的经济之梦似乎正在变成现实。


Now, as the harsh reality of the continent’s vulnerability to challenging external conditions has set in, sustaining that growth has proved difficult.	现在，随着非洲大陆在充满挑战的外部环境面前的脆弱性逐渐显现，现有的增长速度已经很难保持。


Encumbered by slowing growth in China, a collapse in commodity prices, and adverse spillover from numerous security crises, Africa’s overall annual GDP growth averaged just 3.3% in 2010-2015, barely keeping up with population growth – and down sharply from the 4.9% recorded from 2000 to 2008.	在中国经济增长放缓、大宗商品价格暴跌以及不止一次安全危机的拖累下，非洲的年度总体GDP增长在2010到2015年仅为3. 3%，这一速度仅能勉强跟上人口增长——与2000到2008年4.


But a deeper look suggests that things may not be as bad as they seem, for two key reasons.	但深层次观察表明局势也许不像看上去那样严重，得出这样的结论有两个主要原因。


First, though average growth has declined, some African economies have thrived in recent years.	首先，虽然平均增速有所回落，但某些非洲国家在近年来实现了蓬勃发展。


Indeed, aggregate GDP has been dragged down since 2010 by faltering growth among oil exporters and security-related crises in the Sahel and North Africa; but in the rest of Africa, GDP growth has accelerated, from 4.1% in 2000-2010 to 4.4% in 2010-2015.	事实上，石油出口国经济摇摇欲坠以及萨赫勒和北非地区爆发安全危机已经将2010年以来的GDP总量拉了下来； 但在非洲其他地区，GDP发展呈加速之势，从2000到2010年的4.


Second, Africa is undergoing a profound long-term transformation, characterized by rapid digitization, urbanization, and growth in the working-age population, which will outnumber the labor force of China and India by 2034.	其次，非洲正在经历一次以快速数字化、城市化和劳动年龄人口增长为特色的深刻的长期转型，非洲劳动人口截止2034年将在数量上超过中国和印度。


That demographic trend could unlock future growth by advancing economic diversification, spurring domestic consumption, and supporting industrialization.	这样一种人口趋势完全可能通过推进经济多样化、刺激国内消费和支持产业化来达到解锁未来经济增长的目的。


In fact, today’s high-growth countries – including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania – have made substantial progress in reducing their dependence on commodity exports, in favor of trade, investment, and domestic consumption.	事实上，今天的高增长国家——包括科特迪瓦、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚——都在减少依赖商品出口、发展贸易、投资和国内消费等方面取得了实质性的进展。


And many lower-growth countries could head down a similar path.	而且许多低增长国家也可以走上类似的道路。


New research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) shows that spending by Africa’s consumers and businesses already totals $4 trillion.	麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）最新研究成果 显示非洲消费者和企业的支出总额已经达到4万亿美元。 截止2025年，私人开支可能达到5.


By 2025, private spending could reach $5.6 trillion – $2.1 trillion by households, and $3.5 trillion by businesses.	1万亿美元来自家庭部门，而其余3. 5万亿美元则来自企业。


This represents a huge opportunity for Africa���s manufacturers.	这为非洲制造企业创造了巨大的机会。


We believe that Africa can almost double its manufacturing output, to nearly $1 trillion, by 2025, with about 75% of that growth tied to production for local markets.	我们认为截止2025年非洲几乎可以实现制造业产出翻番，而相关增长中75%与当地市场生产密切相关。


The question is whether manufacturers will manage to exploit the growth potential that lies in front of them.	问题在于制造企业能否充分利用摆在他们面前的增长潜力。


African firms have not yet proved capable of meeting existing domestic demand.	非洲企业尚未用事实证明自己具备满足现有国内需求的能力。


Africa still imports about one-third of the food, beverages, and similar processed goods it consumes, whereas the Association of Southeast Asian Nations imports about 20%, and South America’s Mercosur trade bloc imports just 10%.	非洲所需的食品、饮料和类似加工产品约1/3仍依靠进口，而东南亚国家协会的进口比重仅为约20%，南美南方共同市场集团进口比重仅为约10%。


Africa even imports 15% of the cement it uses, despite having abundant raw materials to make it at home.	甚至连非洲所用水泥的15%都要依靠进口，尽管非洲拥有充足的原材料可以实现国内生产。


To be sure, African business has made great strides in recent years.	可以肯定，非洲企业在近年来取得了长足的进步。


Today, 400 African companies have annual revenue of more than $1 billion, and 700 have annual revenue of more than $500 million.	今天，四百家非洲企业实现年收入超过10亿美元，另外还有七百家年收入超过5亿。


On the whole, these large companies are growing faster – and generating higher profits – than their global peers.	总体而言，与世界其他国家的同行相比，这些大企业正在快速成长——取得的利润也越来越可观。


But there is still a long way to go.	但距离实现目标还有很长的路要走。


Large African (excluding South African) firms’ average annual revenue of $2 billion is half that of large firms in Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia.	大型非洲企业（除南非外）20亿美元的平均年收入仅为巴西、印度、墨西哥和俄罗斯等国的一半。


And Africa only has about 60% of the large firms it needs to put it at the same level as the emerging economies.	而非洲还要增设40%的大型企业才能与其他新兴经济体等量齐观。


One key factor limiting firms’ growth is the fragmented nature of the African market, which currently comprises mostly small economies with only limited economic and political linkages.	限制企业增长的一个关键因素是非洲市场四分五裂，现有的非洲市场主要由经济和政治联系有限的小型经济体构成。


There are eight partly overlapping regional trade zones, none of which includes more than half of Africa’s countries.	目前部分区域重叠的区域贸易区共有8个，却没有一个囊括了超过一半的非洲国家。


Only Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa rank in the top 100 of MGI’s Global Connectedness Index.	只有埃及、摩洛哥、尼日利亚和南非在麦肯锡全球研究院的全球联通指数中跻身前100位。


Beyond excessive trade barriers, Africa suffers from inadequate transport links and limits on the free movement of people.	除贸易壁垒高企外，人员自由流动和交通联系匮乏同样困扰着非洲。


Africans need visas to travel to more than half the countries on their own continent.	非洲人前往自己大陆的一半以上国家还需要签证。


The recent launch of the African Union passport is a step in the right direction – but it is only one step.	近期推出的非洲联盟护照是朝正确方向迈出的一步——但也仅仅是一步而已。


A more integrated market would not only enable African companies to create the economies of scale they need to compete; it would also be far more appealing to institutional investors.	加强市场融合不仅将为非洲企业创造出竞争所需的规模经济； 还可以在很大程度上吸引机构投资者。


Building such a market must therefore be a top priority for African leaders, as they seek to unleash the continent’s economic potential.	建设这样的市场因此必须成为非洲领导人的首要任务，这样才能释放非洲大陆的经济潜能。


Equally important, Africa’s leaders must work to improve the business environment.	非洲领导人必须努力改善营商环境，这一点同样重要。


Though some progress has been made on this front in the last two decades, non-tariff barriers remain high.	尽管过去二十年来这方面已经取得了一定进步，但非关税壁垒依然很高。


Indeed, regulatory issues are still cited as a serious deterrent to investment.	事实上，监管问题依然严重制约着投资。


Many African businesses – nearly half of companies in Nigeria, and more than one-third in Angola and Egypt – highlight unreliable electricity supplies as a major challenge.	许多非洲企业——尼日利亚企业的将近一半、安哥拉和埃及的超过1/3——强调电力供应不可靠对他们构成严重挑战。


And almost 40% of firms surveyed by the World Bank lament the constraints imposed by competition from informal firms.	接受世界银行调查企业中近40%对非正规企业竞争带来的限制深表遗憾 。


Some of these issues could be addressed relatively quickly.	其中某些问题解决起来速度较快。


Consider the strides Rwanda has made since 2007, when it established a development board to improve its business environment.	比如从2007年设立发展委员会改善营商环境以来卢旺达已经取得了很大进展。


In less than a decade, that board has led the creation of a “one-stop center” to facilitate investment, has overseen streamlined issuance of construction permits, and has pressed successfully for a fixed fee for property registration, the extension of customs hours, and risk-based customs inspections.	在不到十年时间里，该委员会已经领导创立了促进投资的“一站式中心”、一直负责监管建筑许可证的快速发放，并成功促进在财产登记、海关延长营业时间和以经营风险为基础的海关检查领域收取固定费用。


As a result, Rwanda’s global ranking for the ease of doing business jumped from 143 in 2008 to 32 in 2014.	结果导致卢旺达的全球营商环境排名从2008年的第143位跃升至2014年的第32位。


This success can surely be replicated elsewhere in Africa.	非洲其他国家无疑也可以复制这样的成功。


Despite the challenges some African countries face, the continent’s economic potential remains massive, thanks to favorable demographic dynamics, fast-growing cities, burgeoning domestic markets, and a digital revolution.	尽管非洲国家面临诸多挑战，但多亏乐观的人口趋势、快速发展的城市、蓬勃发展的国内市场和数字革命，非洲大陆仍然拥有巨大的经济发展潜能。


With the right policies, a relentless focus on execution, and a great deal of determination, Africa can still rise.	只要政策对路、执行到位、决心不动摇，非洲仍然有崛起的机会。


Africa’s Vaccination Test	非洲的疫苗考验


BOSTON – In February in Addis Ababa, African health ministers signed a widely celebrated declaration of their commitment to keeping immunization at the forefront of efforts to save the continent’s children from death and disease.	波士顿—在2月的亚的斯亚贝巴，非洲各国卫生部长签署了一份广受欢迎的宣言，承诺将免疫作为拯救非洲儿童免遭死亡和疾病的措施的核心。


Fulfilling that commitment will be no easy feat.	兑现这一承诺绝不容易。


Immunization is not just a health issue; it is also an economic challenge.	免疫不仅是一个卫生问题，也是一个经济挑战。


The case for vaccination is strong.	支持疫苗的理由很充分。


Globally, an estimated 2-3 million child deaths and 600,000 adult deaths are prevented annually through immunization.	全球而言，每年有约200-300万儿童死亡和60万成人死亡通过免疫得以预防。


Moreover, immunization is considered one of the most cost-effective public-health interventions for reducing child morbidity, mortality, and disability.	此外，免疫被认为是性价比最高的降低儿童患病、死亡和残疾的公共卫生干预措施。


A recent study estimates that every dollar spent on vaccination will save $16 in costs of illnesses averted.	一项最新研究估算，花在疫苗上的每一美元可以节约16美元的疾病预防成本。


Accounting for the value individuals place on longer and healthier lives, net returns on investments in immunization soar to some 44 times the cost.	考虑到个人对更长的寿命和更健康的生活的重视，免疫投资的净回报高达成本的44倍。


And net returns exceed costs for all vaccines.	并且净回报超过所有疫苗的成本。


Significant progress has been made.	我们已经取得了长足进步。


In 2014, 86% of children were immunized against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis, compared to less than 5% in 1974.	2014年，86%的儿童接受了白喉，破伤风，百日咳免疫，而1974年还不到5%。


And there have been extraordinary advances in the number and kinds of vaccines that are available.	在可用疫苗的数量和种类方面也取得了重大突破。


Yet, worldwide, an estimated 18.7 million infants are not being reached by routine immunization services.	但是，全球而言，仍有约1,870万婴儿不能获得常规免疫。


The problem, of course, is access.	当然，问题在于普及。


Detailed analysis of immunization reveals significant disparities within and across countries.	非洲各国的详细免疫分析表明，各国国内和各国之间存在巨大差异。


More than 60% of the non-immunized infants live in just ten countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Uganda, and South Africa.	超过60%的未免疫婴儿生活在十个国家：民主刚果（DRC）、埃塞俄比亚、印度、印度尼西亚、伊拉克、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、乌干达和南非。


Routine immunization coverage remains particularly low in Africa; indeed, it has stagnated over the last three years, against a backdrop of weak and under-resourced health systems.	非洲常规免疫覆盖率仍然非常低； 事实上，该覆盖率在过去三年保持停滞，原因是卫生体系薄弱、资源不足。


As a result, one in five African children still do not receive lifesaving vaccination.	结果，非洲五分之一的儿童仍得不到救命的疫苗。


In 2014, an estimated 42% of all global deaths from measles were in Africa.	2014年，大约42%的全球麻疹致死病例发生在非洲。


Most of Africa’s under-immunized children live in Nigeria, Ethiopia, the DRC, South Sudan, and Guinea.	大部分免疫不足的非洲儿童生活在尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、民主刚果、南非、埃塞俄比亚和几内亚。


Poor people, those living in rural areas, and families with lower education levels comprise the majority of those who are not reached.	穷人、农村人口和教育层次较低家庭占未得到免疫覆盖儿童的大部分。


Clearly, money is a leading factor shaping immunization outcomes.	显然，钱是决定免疫结果的首要因素。


Beyond inadequately financed health systems, which remain weak and inefficient, especially in rural areas, African countries face challenges in affording new, more expensive vaccines.	除了资金不足、依然薄弱和低效的卫生体系（特别是在农村地区），非洲国家还面临无力承担更加昂贵的新疫苗的挑战。


New vaccines should be enabling us to save more lives.	新疫苗应该让我们得以拯救更多声明。


Yet Médecins Sans Frontières estimates that the introduction of new vaccines made it 68 times more expensive to vaccinate a child in 2014 than in 2001 in most African countries.	但无国界医生组织估计，引入新疫苗导致大部分非洲国家2014年接种一名儿童的成本比2001年增加了68倍。


Another study showed that in 2001, the total cost of the original set of six World Health Organization-recommended vaccines was less than one dollar.	另一项研究表明，2001年世界卫生组织最初推荐的六种疫苗总成本不到一美元。


In 2014, the number of WHO-recommended vaccines had risen to 11 – and the cost had reached about $21 for boys and $35 for girls.	2014年，世卫组织推荐的疫苗种类增加到11种——成本也高达男孩约21美元，女孩约35美元。


The added costs of delivery, currently estimated at about $25 per child, bring the total cost of fully immunizing a child today to $50-60.	如今，打疫苗的新增成本——目前大约为每名儿童25美元——让一名儿童获得充分免疫的总成本达到了50—60美元。


That same study found that, in many low- and middle-income countries, immunization budgets are currently insufficient to sustain vaccination programs, much less incorporate the new costlier vaccines.	同一项研究表明，在许多中低收入国家，目前的免疫预算不足以维持疫苗项目，更不用说纳入新的昂贵疫苗了。


As several health ministers pointed out in Addis Ababa, high vaccine prices force poor countries’ governments to make tough choices about which deadly diseases they can afford to prevent.	一些国家的卫生部长在亚的斯亚贝巴指出，高昂的疫苗价格迫使穷国政府需要作出承担预防哪些致命疾病的成本的艰难选择。


For some countries, the situation is about to get worse, as Gavi, the international group which has helped to finance the dramatic global expansion of new vaccines, phases out support for countries deemed to have “graduated” from assistance.	对一些国家来说，情况可能进一步恶化。 帮助融资支持新疫苗的大幅全球扩张的国际组织Gavi对于其认为已从援助“毕业”的国家逐渐收回支持。


Without eligibility for the lower prices obtained by Gavi, many of these countries may not be able to afford newer vaccines.	许多失去了获得Gavi的低价的国家可能无法承担更新的疫苗。


In order to cope with this challenge, African political leaders have committed to invest in the continent’s capacity to develop and produce its own vaccines.	为了应对这一挑战，非洲政治领导人已承诺投资建设非洲开发和生产自己的疫苗的能力。


But this is a long-term strategy that will require coordinated regional investment planning, market development, and stronger regulatory capabilities.	单这一长期战略需要互相协调的地区投资规划、市场开发和更强的监管能力。


In the short to medium term, African countries would do well to look into the power of collective bargaining to strike better deals for needed vaccines.	在短期和中期，非洲国家最好着眼于集体讨价还价力量，为需要的疫苗争取更好的合同。


While Africa can and should do more to improve vaccination, the global community also has a responsibility to make a concerted effort to bring down vaccine costs.	非洲可以也应该为改善疫苗做出更多，单全球社会也有责任共同努力降低疫苗成本。


The recently announced reduction in the price of pneumococcal vaccine is a step in the right direction, but it is not enough.	最新宣布的降低肺炎球菌疫苗价格的决定是迈向正确方向的一步，但仍不足够。


Without collective action, equitable and sustained access to immunization in Africa will remain a major problem – and children’s lives will continue to be lost.	如果不采取集体行动，平等且持续地为非洲提供免疫仍将是一个重大问题——儿童的生命也将继续流失。


Africa’s Avoidable AIDS Crisis	可以避免的非洲艾滋病危机


NEW YORK – At Uganda’s largest AIDS clinic, I recently witnessed a remarkable celebration of life. The performers were a troupe of young African singers, drummers and dancers, ranging in age from roughly eight to 28.	纽约——


“This is a land,” they sang,	最近，我在乌干达最大的艾滋病医院目睹了一场盛大的生命礼赞。 表演者是一群非洲年轻人，有歌手、鼓手和舞者，年龄从8岁至28岁不等。


“Where beautiful people	“这片土地上生活着美丽的人民，”他们唱道，


Laugh and dance in harmony.	“他们微笑，他们舞蹈，一切是那么和谐。


Africa.	“非洲。 哦，非洲。


O Africa.”	”