Countries that have their own currency, like the United Kingdom – and especially the United States, which can borrow from foreigners in dollars – do not face a direct financing constraint.	那些拥有本国货币的国家，像英国——尤其是美国，可以向国外借入美元——不需要面对直接融资限制。


For these countries, it matters whether history suggests that there is a strong threshold effect once public debt exceeds 90% of GDP.	对这些国家来说，一国的公共债务一旦超过GDP的90%这个值会不会有强烈的“门槛效应”这点很重要。


But the eurozone’s peripheral countries simply did not have a choice: they had to reduce their deficits, because the foreign capital on which their economies were so dependent was no longer available.	但欧元区外围国家却根本没有选择：它们必须降低其赤字，因为它们已经无法获得其经济极为依赖的外国资本。


But the reverse is also true: as soon as the current account swings to surplus, the pressure from financial markets abates.	但反之亦然：只要经常帐户转向盈余，那么来自金融市场的压力就会减轻。


This is likely to happen soon.	这很快就会成为现实。


At this point, peripheral countries will regain their fiscal sovereignty – and will be able to ignore Reinhart and Rogoff’s warning at their own risk.	此时，外围国家将会恢复它们的财政主权——并足以忽略莱恩哈特和罗格夫的警告而自行其是。


Reinventing Europe’s Financial Markets	重塑欧洲金融市场


FRANKFURT – Despite great progress in integrating the European Union’s financial markets, barriers remain in key areas: retail services, bank mergers and acquisitions, and tax harmonization, to name but a few.	法兰克福—尽管欧盟在金融市场一体化方面取得了很大的进展，但在关键领域仍存在着诸多障碍：零售服务、银行并购和税制协调等等。


Completing a single financial market would boost economic growth and prosperity in every member state.	构建完成一个单一的金融市场会促进所有成员国的经济增长和繁荣。


It would also broaden consumer choice, open a host of new investment opportunities, strengthen the EU banking sector, and make Europe a center for financial innovation.	它还会扩大消费者的选择，开创一系列新的投资机会，强化欧盟的银行业并使欧洲成为金融创新的中心。


What will the single European financial market of the future look like?	单一欧洲金融市场的未来是怎样的呢？


First, there needs to be a level playing field within the EU.	首先，在欧盟内部需要一个平等的竞争环境。


Second, consolidation of Europe’s banking sector must be extended, with all protectionist barriers or other obstacles to mergers and acquisitions eliminated.	其次，欧洲银行业的整合必须延伸，所有的保护主义壁垒和其它针对并购的障碍都要打破。


Third, the European market place should be fully integrated into the global network of financial centers, particularly those in the United States and Asia.	再者，欧洲的市场必须和金融中心的全球网络融合，特别是美国和亚洲的金融中心。


The EU’s Financial Services Action Plan, launched in 1999 and implemented in stages, focused mainly on securities markets.	欧盟在1999年启动并分阶段实施的《金融服务行动纲领》主要焦点在于证券市场。


It boosted competition and innovation for professional traders and encouraged institutional market players, in particular, to trade across EU borders.	它促进了专业券商的竞争和创新，还特别鼓励了机构市场参与者进行欧盟范围内的跨境交易。


As a result, considerable progress was made in the “wholesale” securities sector. Retail customers, however, were largely ignored.	其结果是使证券“批发”行业得到了长足发展，然而零售顾客在很大程度上却被忽略了。


But the aim of creating a “European home market” should not be reserved for wholesale market players.	但创建一个“欧洲内部市场”的目标不应只针对批发业务的市场主体。


Retail customers deserve the chance to buy products and services from all member countries, and it would be in banks’ own interest for them to be able to do so.	零售客户也应该有机会从所有的成员国购买产品和服务。


For example, according to surveys by the European Commission, more than 10% of European banking and insurance customers would like to use foreign products and services.	例如，根据欧洲委员会的调查，10%的欧洲银行和保险业客户都想使用外国的产品和服务。


But only 5% of customers currently have an account with a foreign bank.	但目前只有5%的顾客拥有外国银行的账户。


The figures for credit cards are even lower – only around 3% of Europeans have a card from a non-domestic provider.	信用卡方面的数据更低—只有约3%的欧洲人持有非本国发卡人发放的信用卡。


Just 3% make any private provision for retirement with a foreign bank, and only 1% of retail customers take out a mortgage in another EU country.	仅有3%的人在外国银行为退休金账户缴款，而从另外一个欧盟国家获得按揭贷款的零售顾客也仅有1%。


The reasons for this are clear.	造成这种局面的原因是显而易见的。


There are undoubtedly “natural” barriers, such as language and national mentalities, which cannot be overcome swiftly.	毫无疑问，这里有“自然”的障碍，比如语言和民族思维方式等不能很快克服的因素。


But there are also big “man-made” barriers, particularly those created by different national legislation in the fields of investor and consumer protection.	但还有很多“人为”的障碍，特别是那些由国家立法机构在投资者和消费者保护方面制造的障碍。


These regulations differ widely.	这些法规大相径庭。


What information requirements must banks comply with?	银行在信息要求方面要符合哪些规定？


What formalities must customers complete if they want to open an account in another EU country?	如果消费者想在另一个欧盟国家开设账户必须履行哪些手续？


Nor will consumers find any uniform standards for loans or other financial guarantee agreements in the EU.	消费者在欧盟的贷款或其他金融担保协议方面也找不到统一的标准。


This lack of uniformity is preventing both banks and consumers from doing more cross-border business, and it is where policymakers must act; only harmonized rules and EU-wide standards will eliminate costly and time-consuming compliance with different national regimes.	这种统一性的缺乏使得银行和顾客却步跨界业务，而这正是政策制定者们必须采取行动的地方； 只有协调统一的法规和全欧盟的标准才会消除在履行不同国家的体系合规方面费钱费时的情况。


Another missing piece in the EU financial market mosaic is the harmonization of tax law.	欧盟金融市场拼图中缺失的另一块是税法的协调。


The question is not one of aligning tax rates, which can and should be determined by competition. Rather, the aim of harmonization is to make cross-border trade easier for business.	问题不在于采用哪一种税率（这能够也应该通过竞争来决定），而是协调的目的在于使跨界交易更为便利。


For example, if there is no standard way to determine taxable income, or offset losses, it is hard for firms – including banks – to sell their products in other member states or to optimize their cross-border corporate structures.	例如，如果没有确定可征税收入或如何抵消亏损的标准，企业—包括银行—就很难将产品销售到另外的成员国或优化它们的跨界公司结构。


Despite such headaches, significant progress toward a single financial market is being made.	尽管有这些令人头疼的问题，欧盟在走向单一金融市场方面也正取得巨大的进展。


The technical conditions required for the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) have been met.	建立“单一欧元付款区” (SEPA)的技术条件已经达成。


Customers can, for the first time, make all their euro payments as safely, efficiently, and conveniently as they do at home.	顾客们第一次可以像在本国一样安全、高效而方便地进行欧元付款。


The payment products they use are based on uniform pan-European procedures.	他们使用的支付产品是基于一个统一的泛欧洲流程。


An efficient European financial market also needs centralization of supervisory competences.	一个高效的欧洲金融市场还需要监管力的集中化。


Convergence of national regulations should be accelerated, and closer cooperation between national authorities should become a priority.	加速各国法规的融合，各国监管机构之间更机密的合作应该成为当务之急。


Otherwise, national authorities will be unable to respond properly to cross-border developments.	否则，各国的监管机构将不能很好地应对跨界业务的发展。


Ultimately, the aim should be to create a single institution responsible for supervising large banks that operate across the EU, with national regulators responsible only for domestic banks.	最终，我们的目标应该是建立一个单一的机构负责对在整个欧盟范围内运营的大银行进行监管，而国家的监管当局则仅负责对国内的银行进行监管。


Here, the European System of Central Banks could serve as a model.	在这里，“欧洲中央银行体系”可以作为一个范例。


Centralized financial supervision would avoid the need for banks to duplicate reports to different authorities, allow financial rules and supervisory practices to be harmonized, and eliminate distortions to competition.	集中化的金融监管可以避免银行向不同的监管机构报告，使得金融法规和监管操作协调化，并消除扭曲竞争的现象。


The remaining barriers to cross-border mergers and acquisitions also need to be removed so that EU banks can grow big enough to compete globally.	在跨界并购方面仍然存在的障碍也必须消除，以使欧盟的银行能够做大从而适应全球竞争。


Although direct legal obstacles have been eliminated in Europe, indirect obstacles such as taxation – which can make a merger unprofitable – persist.	虽然直接的法律障碍在欧洲已经消除，但间接的障碍，如税收（可能让并购变得无利可图）则仍然存在。


Some national governments have their part to play, too.	在这方面有些国家的政府也有责任。


Germany illustrates the problems that are created when a country’s banking sector is largely bypassed by the global trend toward consolidation.	德国的现状反映出了当一个国家的银行业错过了整合的国际潮流之后会发生问的题。


When measured against the size of its national economy, most German banks remain too small, trailing their international rivals in terms of both market capitalization and total assets.	与国家的经济规模相比，大多数德国银行都仍然太弱小，在总市值和总资产方面都很难与其国际竞争者匹敌。


Germany needs three or four big banks to take their place among Europe’s market leaders and be at the forefront of the consolidation process.	德国需要有三四家银行进入欧洲市场领导���的行列并站在整合进程的最前沿。


In other countries, policymakers set the course for banking modernization years ago and have reinforced competition since then – to the benefit of customers and banks alike.	在其他国家，政策制定者们在多年以前就为银行业现代化制定了路线图并从那时开始就强化了竞争—这对于顾客和银行都是有益的。


The “three pillar” structure of the German banking system is a drag on growth.	德国银行业的“三大支柱”体系是成长的制肘。


While public banks can – and do – buy private banks, the reverse is blocked by law, which distorts competition.	虽然国有银行可以—也确实—在收购私有银行，但反之却不被法律允许。 这样就扭曲了竞争。


An integrated single market in financial services would be a platform for innovation and increased competitiveness.	金融服务业统一的单一市场会成为创新和更强竞争力的平台。


It would also boost Europe’s global role and allow EU banks to compete in the worldwide marketplace.	它会促进欧洲发挥全球性的作用并使欧盟的银行能逐鹿世界市场。


While much has already been accomplished, it is time to finish the job.	虽然我们已经取得了不错的成绩，但现在是到了完成这项工作的时候了。


Reinventing the European Dream	再筑欧洲之梦


PRINCETON – The euro crisis and Queen Elizabeth’s recent Jubilee seem to have nothing in common.	普林斯顿——欧元危机似乎和最近伊丽莎白女王的即位五十周年庆典没有关联。


In fact, together they impart an important lesson: the power of a positive narrative – and the impossibility of winning without one.	事实上，这两件大事共同给世人上了重要的一课：正面故事的力量——失去两者中的任意一个都不可能成功。


Commenting on the Jubilee’s river pageant and horse parade, historian Simon Schama talked to the BBC about “little boats and big ideas.”	历史学家西蒙·莎马在评论五十周年庆典活动河选美和马巡游时，在BBC采访中谈及到“小船只大想法”。


The biggest idea was that Britain’s monarchy serves to connect the country’s past to its future in ways that transcend the pettiness and ugliness of quotidian politics.	最具意义的想法是英国王室摒弃过去繁琐的仪式和以往丑陋的政治色彩，将国家的过去与未来接轨。


The heritage of kings and queens stretching back across more than a millennium – the enduring symbolism of crowns and coaches, and the literal embodiment of the English and now the British state – binds Britons together in a common journey.	国王和女王的传统恢复到一千多年前的水平——一贯的皇冠和马车象征，曾经作为文字上化身而现在成为英国化身的英语，通过这次平民化的旅行把英国人联系在一起。


Cynics might call this the old bread-and-circuses routine.	犬儒主义者或许会把这称作陈旧的面包与马戏俗套。


But the point is to fix eyes and hearts on a narrative of hope and purpose – to uplift, rather than distract, the public.	但重点在于把大众的眼球和注意力吸引到有关希望与目标的故事上——去提高公众的意识，而不是分散他们的注意力。


Are Greeks, Spaniards, Portuguese, and other Europeans really supposed to embrace an austerity program imposed on them because prevailing wisdom in Germany and other northern countries considers them profligate and lazy?	希腊人，西班牙人，葡萄牙人和其他欧洲国家真的应该去开展强加于它们身上的节俭计划，仅仅因为德国遍国的智者和其他北方国家认为它们国家的人既放荡又懒惰？


Those are fighting words, creating resentment and division just when unity and burden-sharing are most needed.	那些只是攻击性的说话，只在需要团结和分担责任是才会说出，以产生对对方的憎恨和分歧。


Greece, in particular, now needs a way to connect its past with its future, but no monarch is forthcoming.	尤其是希腊，如今需要从过去步入到未来，但这个国家没有现成的王室。


And, as the cradle of the world’s first democracy, Greece needs other symbols of national renewal than scepters and robes.	作为世界上首个民主发源地，希腊需要的是其他表示振兴国家的象征，而不是权杖和长袍。


It is through Homer that virtually all Western readers first encounter the Mediterranean world: its islands and shores and peoples knit together by diplomacy, trade, marriage, oil, wine, and long ships.	是荷马让西方的读者首次接触地中海世界的：它的岛屿和海岸，人们由外交，贸易，婚姻，食油，酒和大船联系起来。


Greece could once again be a pillar of such a world, using its current crisis to craft a new future.	希腊可以用它现在面临的危机去开拓新未来，再次成为上述世界的支柱。


That vision is more plausible than one might think.	这样的构想是貌似是最为可执行的。


Natural-gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean are estimated to hold up to 122 trillion cubic feet, enough to supply the entire world for a year.	在东地中海的天然气田估计有高达122万亿立方英尺的蕴藏量，这足够供整个世界使用一年。


More gas and large oil fields lie off the Greek coast in the Aegean and Ionian Seas, enough to transform the finances of Greece and the entire region.	在希腊的爱琴海和爱奥尼亚海海岸发现更多的天然气和油田，足够改变希腊的财政收入和整个地区的经济状况。


Israel and Cyprus are planning joint exploration; Israel and Greece are discussing a pipeline; Turkey and Lebanon are prospecting; and Egypt is planning to license exploration.	以色列和塞浦路斯正计划联合开发：以色列和希腊正讨论建管道，土耳其和黎巴嫩正在勘探； 埃及正计划申请批准勘探。


But politics, as always, intervenes.	但政治，往往都会干涉经济。


All countries involved have maritime disputes and political disagreements.	所有涉及到的国家都面临海事争端和政治分歧。


The Turks are working with Northern Cyprus, whose independence only they recognize, and regularly make threatening noises about Israel’s drilling with the Greek Cypriot government of the Republic of Cyprus.	土耳其人正和北塞浦路斯人合作，成为塞浦路斯主权独立的唯一承认者，并时不时就以色列与塞浦路斯共和国希腊族塞浦路斯人政府进行军事演习作出威胁。


The Greek Cypriots regularly hold the EU hostage over any dealings with Turkey, as has Greece.	希腊族塞浦路斯人定期在于土耳其交易时劫持欧洲人质，希腊也这样做。


The Turks will not let Cypriot ships into their harbors and have not been on speaking terms with the Israelis since nine Turkish citizens were killed on a ship that sought to breach Israel’s blockade of Gaza.	土耳其人则不会让塞浦路斯的船只驶入他们的海港，自从九个土耳其公民在试图冲破以色列对加沙地带的封锁的船只上被杀，土耳其再没有和以色列进行口头上的条件谈判。


Lebanon and Israel do not have diplomatic relations.	黎巴嫩和以色列并没有建立外交关系。


In short, the riches, jobs, and development that would flow to all countries in the region from responsible energy exploitation may well be blocked by the insistence of each on getting what it regards as its fair share and denying access to its enemies.	总的来说，富人，工作，以及会从各国负责的能源勘测带给该地区所有国家的发展机遇，可能会被封锁，因为就公平分配和否认敌国勘测渠道问题各方存在固执立场。


The vision of a Mediterranean Energy Community thus seems destined to remain a pipedream.	地中海能源共同体因此作出似乎仍然注定是白日梦的构想。


Yet July will bring the 60th anniversary of the ratification of the Treaty of Paris, which established the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) among France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg only six years after the end of World War II.	然而六月份迎来了巴黎公约的六十周年纪念日，当时在法国，德国，意大利，比利时和荷兰之间建立了欧洲煤矿和钢铁共同体（ECSC），卢森堡在二战结束仅仅六个月之后也加入了该组织。


During the previous 70 years, Germany and France had fought each other in three devastating wars, the last two of which ruined Europe’s economies and decimated its population.	在之前的70年间，德国和法国在三个毁灭性战争中共同作战，其中后两场站在摧毁了欧洲的经济，大幅减少了其人口。


These countries’ mutual hatred and suspicion was no less bitter and deep-seated than that afflicting the Eastern Mediterranean.	这些国家之间的相互憎恨和猜疑绝不逊于折磨东地中海的国家憎恨和猜疑。


Yet French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman, with the assistance of his counselor Jean Monnet, announced a plan for the ECSC in 1950, only five years after German troops had left Paris, with the aim of making “war not only unthinkable but materially impossible.”	但法国外交部部长罗伯特舒曼在他的参赞让·莫内的辅佐下，在德国军队撤离巴黎仅仅五年之后，宣布ECSC在1950年的计划，目标是让“不仅仅要消灭发起战争的念头，还要在物质上让战争变得不可能”。


Schuman proposed putting Franco-German coal and steel production under a common High Authority, thereby preventing the two sides from using the raw materials of war against each other, and powering a common industrial economy.	舒曼提议法德煤矿和钢铁生产都在共同高级公署的管理下开展，借此阻止双方利用原材料相互发起战争，并借此让两国的共同工业经济体繁荣。


The ECSC became the core of today’s European Union.	ECSC成为了欧盟现今的核心。


The EU today is on the ropes, but only a few concrete steps by European leaders might open the door to similarly bold diplomacy that could restore EU and Mediterranean economies and transform the energy politics of Europe and Asia.	现在，欧盟岌岌可危，但在欧洲各国领导人采取的具体措施中，只有小部分有可能打开相对大胆的外交政策之门，让欧盟和地中海经济体恢复经济以及转变欧洲和亚洲的能源政策。


If the European Parliament and the European Council were to take steps to make direct EU trade with northern Cyprus subject to qualified majority voting rather than consensus (and hence veto by Cyprus), the EU would be able to begin trading with northern Cyprus, and Turkey could begin trading with Cyprus as a whole.	如果欧洲国会和欧洲理事会准备采取行动让欧盟和遵循多数投票方式而非讨论达成一致（因此被塞浦路斯否决）的北塞浦路斯交易，欧盟将可以和北塞浦路斯开始通商贸易，土耳其总体上也会跟塞浦路斯开展贸易。


These steps could lead in turn to a Turkish, Cypriot, and Greek energy partnership that would provide positive incentives for Turkish-Israeli reconciliation.	这些措施会促进土耳其，塞浦路斯和希腊的能源合作伙伴关系形成，从而让此关系积极鼓励土以双方的和解。


The Schuman Plan took two years to crystalize and a decade to implement.	舒曼计划花了两年时间才成型，经历了十年时间去执行。


But it gave war-torn and desperately poor Europeans a positive vision of a new future, something that Greece and Cyprus, not to mention Middle Eastern and North African countries, desperately need.	但它带给了被战争撕裂和贫穷到让人绝望的欧洲一个对新未来积极构想，这都是希腊，塞浦路斯，更不用说中东和北非国家所急切需要的。


Europe’s leaders will not surmount this crisis by pounding their citizens with bleak demands for austerity.	欧洲领导人若通过冷酷无情地要求公民一味节俭，是不可能克服此次危机的。


They must take concrete steps, with Greece as a full and equal partner, to create a vision of real rewards from a rejuvenated EU.	他们必须采取具体措施，全心全意，平等地对待希腊这位伙伴，创造一个真正能从恢复活力的欧盟中获得收益的展望。


The EU does not have a Queen Elizabeth.	欧盟没有伊丽莎白女王。


What it needs is another Schuman and Monnet.	它需要的是另一位舒曼和莫奈。


Reinvigorate the Rich to Help the Poor	重新唤醒富国扶贫热情


WASHINGTON, DC – For the third time in five years, the world’s poorest countries are at risk of being hit by a crisis not of their making – a prospective downturn brought on by financial turmoil in the world’s most advanced economies.	华盛顿——全球最贫困国家正在遭受五年内第三次并非由它们所引起的危机的侵袭——因最发达国家所带来的金融风暴导致的衰退。


Having gone through the food and fuel shock of 2007-2008 and the global financial crisis that followed, low-income countries may now face even larger disruptions in 2012.	低收入国家刚刚经历了2007—2008年的食品和燃料冲击，随后又遭遇了金融危机，而在2012年，它们可能会面临更大的风险。


And, given the interdependence of today’s globalized world, poor countries’ distress will invariably have unwelcome consequences for everyone, rich and poor alike.	此外，在当今的全球化世界中，各国之间相互依赖，穷国受困将不可避免地给所有国家带来不良后果，不管是穷是富。


At the height of the global crisis in 2009, many low-income countries experienced a slowdown in growth marked by falling exports, lower remittances from expatriate workers, and subdued foreign investment.	2009年全球危机处于顶峰时，许多低收入国家经历了因出口下降、侨民寄回外汇减少以及外国投资出逃所造成的增长减速。


The social consequences were severe: the World Bank estimates that an additional 64 million people were left in extreme poverty by the end of 2010.	这造成了严重的社会后果：世界银行估计，到2010年底，世界极端贫困人口数量增加了6400万。


Yet it could have been much worse.	但情况原本可能更加糟糕。


Thanks to greatly improved policy performance over the previous decade, low-income countries entered the crisis far better positioned to withstand shocks than in the past.	得益于过去十年政策表现的改善，低收入国家在面临此次危机时所处的状况要比前几次好得多。


They had smaller fiscal and current-account deficits, lower inflation, larger international reserves, and – thanks in part to debt relief – lower debt burdens.	它们的财政和经常项目赤字更小了，通胀更低了，国际储备更高了，且债务负担也更低了（部分要归功于债务减免）。


As a result, most countries were able to maintain or even increase spending, despite lower revenues, and allow fiscal deficits to widen.	因此，尽管岁入下降，但大部分国家仍能够维持甚至增加支出水平，并有能力让财政赤字增加。


This propped up economic growth, while also boosting outlays for critical investments and social programs needed to lessen the hardships faced by the poorest people.	这刺激了经济增长，同时也提振了纾缓最贫困人口困境所必须的关键性投资和社会项目。


The downturn was also relatively short-lived, partly as a result of the greater openness to world trade that lower-income countries have embraced over the past decade.	衰退期限也相对缩短了，部分是因为低收入过家在过去十年中更加开放地加入了世界贸易。


But these countries are still highly vulnerable.	但这些国家依然十分脆弱。


Many have not had sufficient time to rebuild the policy buffers that served them so well.	许多国家没有充足的时间重建有效的政策缓冲垫。


There is less ammunition left in the fiscal arsenal, current-account deficits have widened, reserves have declined, and debt levels have risen significantly in some countries.	它们财政金库已快告罄，经常项目赤字有所扩大，储备有所减少，一些国家还出现了债务水平剧增。


Moreover, with the advanced economies facing budgetary pressures, foreign aid may be severely constrained for some time to come.	此外，由于发达国家面临着预算压力，在未来数年中，对外援助力度将大大减小。


Under these circumstances, it is by no means certain that low-income countries will have access to additional concessional financing.	在这样的环境下，没人能够保证低收入国家可以继续获得优惠融资。


As a result, a new global downturn would hit low-income countries hard.	因此，新的全球减速将极大地冲击低收入国家。


Simulations by the International Monetary Fund suggest that a decline in global growth of 1.5 percentage points could, owing to its impact on trade and financial flows, generate a $27 billion gap in additional external financing in 2012 alone.	IMF的模拟测试结果表明，全球增长率下降1. 5个百分点将通过其对贸易和金融流的影响，光是在2012年就将造成270亿美元的外部融资缺口。


That would also push 23 million more people – most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia – into poverty.	这将使2300万人（其中大部分居住在非洲撒哈拉以南和亚洲地区）陷入贫困。


What can countries do to help themselves?	这些国家如何自救？


The scope for fiscal stimulus is more limited than in 2009, but countries with sufficient fiscal room and available financing should maintain spending levels and preserve critical social and infrastructure programs.	财政刺激余地比2009年更小了，但仍有充分空间并可以获得融资的国家应该维持支持水平，并坚持投资关键的社会和基础设施项目。


Countries with moderate inflation could be more assertive with monetary and exchange-rate policy.	通胀较为温和的国家应该坚定地实施货币和汇率政策。


A key priority for 2012 and subsequent years must be to build increased resilience against shocks.	2012及其后数年的一项当务之急是建立冲击抵御机制。


Low-income countries should boost their revenue bases to reduce reliance on external financing, while improving the efficiency of spending.	低收入国家应该巩固它们的岁入基础，以减少对外部融资的依赖，同时改善支出的效率。


In particular, improving the scope and targeting of social safety nets would go a long way toward protecting the poorest in the event of a further global downturn.	特别是，改善社会保障网的规模和受众将使最贫困人口的状况得到极大保护，即使是在全球减速恶化的情况下。


Several countries, including Armenia, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Ghana, and Kenya, have already made successful strides in this direction, using means-tested food-voucher programs, maternal and family benefits, school-based social services, and conditional cash-transfer schemes targeting the most vulnerable groups, such as orphans.	亚美尼亚、布基纳法索、塞拉利昂、加纳、肯尼亚等国家已经成功地开始朝这个方向起步了，实施了基于调查的食品券计划、母亲和家庭福利计划、基于学校的社会服务计划以及有条件的现金转移计划（以孤儿等最脆弱群体为目标受众）等计划。


Over the longer term, low-income countries would benefit from diversifying their economies and avoiding over-dependence on a few products and trading partners.	从长期看，低收入国家将从经济多元化和避免过度依赖少数产品和贸易伙伴中获益。


More diversified economies are also likely to deliver more inclusive growth – growth that creates jobs for more people, and that distributes its benefits more widely.	更多元化的经济也更有可能带来普惠增长，即能够给更多人带来跟多工作机会、好处被更多人分享的增长。


In order to boost long-term growth prospects and productivity, low-income countries will also need to meet huge infrastructure needs, especially in the area of electricity generation and transportation.	为了提振长期增长前��和生产率，低收入国家还需要满足巨大的基础设施需求，特别是发电和运输领域。


What can we do to help?	我们能够怎样施以援手？


The IMF is ready to assist with policy advice, financial support, and technical assistance.	IMF已准备好给予政策建议、金融支持和技术援助。


We have boosted our concessional lending capacity to $17 billion through 2014, and doubled the amounts countries can draw.	我们已经将到2014年的优惠贷款量增加到了170亿美元，且将可以获得此类贷款的国家数量增加了一倍。


We have also cut interest rates on all concessional lending to zero through 2012.	我们还把到2012年的优惠贷款利率削减到零。


We have made our lending instruments more flexible, so that financial support can reach our members quickly, leaving sufficient room for high-priority spending to support growth and protect the most vulnerable.	我们的贷款工具比以前更加灵活了，以便金融支持能够更快地抵达成员国，为它们创造空间进行急需支出支持增长、保护最脆弱人群。


Ultimately, the best way that the international community can help the low-income countries is for the advanced economies to get their houses in order and restore strong and sustainable global growth.	但国际社会帮助低收入国家的办法是发达国家解决好自身问题，重塑强劲持续的全球增长。


That will help to ensure that low-income countries remain on track to consolidate and extend the impressive achievements of the last decade.	这将有助于低收入国家进一步整合财政、在上一个十年所取得的显著成就的基础上更上一层楼。


Oki-Now-What?	冲绳何去何从？


OSAKA – Japan’s alliance with the United States is widely viewed as a crucial counterweight to China’s hegemonic ambitions, which pose significant threats to Asian security.	发自大阪——人们普遍认为日美联盟是对中国霸权野心——也是亚洲安全重大威胁——的关键制衡。


But, although the United States and Japan are conducting joint naval exercises in the East China Sea in order to signal to China that it should tone down its actions over the disputed Senkaku Islands, all is not well with the alliance.	但尽管美日两国在东海进行联合海军演习来向中国传达应当缓和对有争议的尖阁列岛（或尖阁列岛）行动的信号，但联盟内部却称不上和谐。


Controversy over the deployment by the US Marines of 12 tilt-rotor V-22 Osprey aircraft to the Futenma Air Base on Okinawa has contributed to the alliance’s decay.	关于美国海军陆战队往冲绳县普天间空军基地部署12架V-22鱼鹰式倾转旋翼飞机的争议加剧了该联盟的衰败。


The hybrid aircraft – which combine a helicopter’s ability to take off and land vertically with the range, loading capacity, fuel efficiency, and speed of a turboprop airplane – are instrumental to deter possible Chinese or North Korean aggression in the area.	这种混合式飞机结合了直升机的垂直起降能力以及涡轮螺旋桨飞机的航程、运载量、燃油效率及速度，被用来协助阻止中国或朝鲜可能对该地区发起的进攻。


Yet the plans have fueled the most persistent anti-American protests on Okinawa in decades, owing to safety concerns.	然而出于对安全的担忧，这些计划加剧了在冲绳持续了几十年的反美抗议。


Indeed, the aircraft’s accident-plagued record includes six fatalities since 2007 and two crashes this year.	的确，自2007年以来飞机出事故的记录包括了6起死亡事故及今年的2场坠机事件。


Given that Futenma is located in a densely-populated urban area that includes more than 100 schools, hospitals, and shops, critics contend that the Osprey would endanger the lives of thousands of island residents.	考虑到普天间位于人口稠密的市区——该地区有100多个学校、医院和商店，批评家们断言“鱼鹰”计划会危及到岛上成千上万居民的生命。


But the level of outrage over the Osprey deployment is not proportionate to the threat – especially given the aircraft’s benefits.	然而对“鱼鹰”部署的愤怒程度与其威胁是不成比例的——特别是考虑到飞机所带来的利益。


This disparity between fact and perception reflects the root cause of the decay in the bilateral alliance: neither country fully appreciates the ongoing need for the alliance, or the political costs that it must bear for the sake of security.	事实与认识之间的不对等反映了双边联盟衰退的根本原因：双方都不充分领会持续结盟的必要性，也不了解为了确保安全所必须承担的政治成本。


In the view of Okinawans, they have been unfairly burdened since 1945 by the concentration of American forces on the island, which has resulted in fatal aircraft crashes and crimes against residents by US troops, including the brutal rape of a 12-year-old Japanese girl by three US servicemen in 1995.	在冲绳人看来，自1945年以来他们就已经为美军在该岛的部署承担了太多。 美军在该岛的驻扎已经导致了致命的飞机坠毁事件，驻军士兵对当地居民的各类罪行——其中包括1995年三名美军残忍强奸一名12岁日本少女的事件。


In fact, just last month, two US sailors were indicted for raping a Japanese woman.	事实上上月又有2名美国士兵被控强奸一名日本妇女。


In this context, just one fatal Osprey crash could trigger powerful anti-US sentiment on a strategically important island.	在这种背景下，只要再来一场重大鱼鹰飞机坠毁事件就会在这个战略上极其重要的岛屿上激起强烈的反美情绪。


While the Japanese government has backed the Osprey deployment, it has failed to allay residents’ anger.	虽然日本政府已经表态支持“鱼鹰”部署，却无法缓和当地居民的愤怒。


Okinawans were already furious that the Democratic Party of Japan-led government broke its pledge to relocate the Futenma Air Base.	冲绳人早已被日本民主党领导的政府违背迁移普天间空军基地承诺的行为激怒了。


But, with Japan’s political system mired in a protracted transition under a dysfunctional two-party regime, recent governments have been unstable and weak, unable to satisfy either side’s demands.	然而，随着日本政治体系在功能失调的两党政体下陷入旷日持久的过渡之中，近期的政府极不稳定且脆弱不堪，根本无法满足任何一方的要求。


Indeed, while the current government has acceded to US deployment plans, it has also attempted to appease Okinawans by conducting its own inquiries into recent accidents (which ultimately supported the Pentagon’s findings of pilot error) and insisting that it will persuade the US government to respect their needs.	确实，虽然当前日本政府已经同意美国的部署计划，同时它还试图通过自行展开对近期事故的调查（最终还是与五角大楼的结论一致，即事故来自驾驶员失误）及坚称会说服美国政府尊重当地居民的要求来安抚冲绳人。


In so doing, it has cast the US military as the villain – a move that could eventually hollow out American support for the alliance.	在这么做的同时，日本政府已经把美军塑造成了恶棍的形象——这样的举动最终会彻底掏空美国对该联盟的支持。


A new approach to alliance management is essential to revive public support for the partnership on both sides of the Pacific.	因此必须制定一个管理联盟的新方案来重振太平洋两岸公众对这一伙伴关系的支持。


Citizens must be reminded that US forward deployment in Okinawa – with financial support from Japan –enables both countries to project power across the region.	日本人必须理解美国在冲绳的部署——在日本的财政支持下——使得两国都能在该地区投射军事力量。


To decouple concerns about the Osprey from the issue of crimes by US military personnel, bilateral agreements for criminal jurisdiction must be revised.	要想让日本人民把对“鱼鹰”部署的担忧与美国军事人员在日本的犯罪问题分开来看，就必须修订双边协定中的刑事管辖权。


While the bilateral Status of Forces Agreement does not have to be amended per se, given that its key stipulations closely resemble those of its NATO counterpart, crucial details set under the auspices of the bilateral security pact curtail the scope of Japanese jurisdiction over US forces stationed in Japan.	虽然美日双边驻军地位协定本身并不需要进行根本性修订，但考虑到其主要条款十分接近于北约的相关条款，在双边安全条约中规定的关键细节限制了日本对美国驻军的管辖范围。


As a result, felonious servicemen have largely escaped justice.	结果犯了重罪的美国军人在很大程度上没有受到法律制裁。


This arrangement – a legacy of the post-war US-led occupation, which was underpinned by a victor-loser mentality – must be changed to make the alliance sustainable.	要使美日联盟持续下去，必须改变目前这种处理安排——这是战后由美国主导占领而引起的遗留问题，它受到了胜者-失败者心态的影响。


Moreover, it is crucial to emphasize appropriate risk-taking.	此外，关键是要强调适当的冒险行为。


After all, the Osprey’s safety risks are insignificant relative to the security threat posed by, say, a North Korean missile or Chinese aggression in the area, especially the nearby Senkaku Islands.	毕竟，“鱼鹰”的安全风险相对于朝鲜导弹或中国侵犯该地区（尤其是附近的钓鱼岛）的所引发的安全威胁来说简直是微不足道的。


While the Osprey’s safety risks should be limited as much as possible – for example, by restricting flight routes, flights in “helicopter” mode, and training airspace – Okinawans must understand that the Osprey deployment is part of the price of the US security guarantee.	“鱼鹰”的安全风险应该尽可能地被控制——比如，通过限定飞行航线、限制以“直升机模式”航行及划定训练领空——冲绳人必须明白“鱼鹰”部署是得到美国安全保证所必须付出的一部分代价。


Nevertheless, the US should conduct a comprehensive review of force posture and access to air bases, centered on rotational deployment between Guam and Okinawa and dispersed access to auxiliary air bases and civilian airports across the greater Okinawa area.	然而，美国应该对各空军基地的驻军态势和进出调动进行全面检讨，主要集中在关岛和冲绳之间的部队轮换部署及大冲绳地区辅助空军基地和民用机场的分散使用。


This approach not only makes operational sense, but it also will lessen the burden on Futenma, without requiring that a replacement facility be constructed – which would incite controversy of its own.	这一方案不仅在操作上可行，同时也能减轻普天间的负担，而且还并不需要建设更换设备——这些建设本身就会引发争议。


Finally, Okinawans should be offered compensation to offset the opportunity costs of forced coexistence with US forces.	最终，冲绳人民应该得到相应的补偿来抵消被迫与美军共处的机会成本。


Specifically, the Japanese government should subsidize community development on Okinawa – at least until the security environment changes.	特别是，日本政府应该在冲绳资助社区发展——至少直到环境安全得到改善。


If mishandled, the Osprey issue could cause serious damage to the US-Japan alliance.	如果处理不当，“鱼鹰”问题会严重破坏美日的联盟。


In order to confront mounting security challenges in Asia, American and Japanese leaders must acknowledge the partnership’s value – and reinvigorate public support for it.	为了应对逐渐增大的亚洲安全挑战，美国及日本的领导人必须承认其合作伙伴的价值——并重振公众对它的支持。


Bangladesh’s Quest for Justice	孟加拉国的公正诉求


NEW DELHI – The sea of humanity besieging the Shahbag area in the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, for the last two months, has had an unusual demand – unusual, at least, for the Indian subcontinent.	新德里—孟加拉国首都达卡Shahbag区陷入了人民战争的海洋，示威者提出了不同寻常的要求——至少是印度次大陆不同寻常的要求。


The demonstrators have been clamoring for justice for the victims of the genocidal massacres of 1971 that led to the former East Pakistan’s secession from Pakistan.	示威者一直在要求还1971年种族灭绝大屠杀受害者以公道，这场大屠杀导致前东巴基斯坦从巴基斯坦分裂。


The demonstrations have been spontaneous, disorganized, and chaotic, but also impassioned and remarkably peaceful.	示威是自发、无组织而混乱的，但示威者激情满满又相当平和。


Many of the several thousand demonstrators at Shahbag are too young to have had personal experience of the killings that marked the Pakistani Army’s brutal, and ultimately unsuccessful, attempt to suppress the fledgling independence movement.	Shahbag的数千名示威者太年轻，并无关于巴基斯坦军队对尚在襁褓中的独立运动的不成功的残忍镇压的体验。


But they are animated by an ideal – the profound conviction that complicity in mass murder should not go unpunished, and that justice is essential for Bangladeshi society’s four-decade-old wounds to heal fully.	但他们因一种理想——大屠杀的共犯不能逍遥法外，公正是抚平巴基斯坦四十年社会创伤的关键——而生机勃发。


What is curious about this development is that the subcontinent has preferred to forget the monstrous injustices that have scarred its recent history.	这一发展的有趣之处是，印度次大陆更愿意忘掉在最近的历史留下深刻伤痕的灾难性不公正。


A million people lost their lives in the savagery of the subcontinent’s partition into India and Pakistan, and 13 million more were displaced, most forcibly.	印度和巴基斯坦的分离导致一百万人死于暴行，1300万人流离失所（大部分人是被迫的）。


But not one person was ever charged with a crime, much less tried and punished.	但从没有一个人因此治罪，更不用说受到审判和惩罚了。


An estimated million more were massacred in Bangladesh in 1971, and only this year have some of the perpetrators’ local allies been tried.	据估计，1971年孟加拉国有一百多万人在大屠杀中丧命，直到今年，才有几名罪犯的本地共谋者被审判。


Almost every year, somewhere on the subcontinent, riots, often politically instigated, claim dozens – sometimes hundreds and occasionally thousands – of lives in the name of religion, sect, or ethnicity.	在印度次大陆，几乎每年都会有一些地方的公众受到政治教唆掀起暴乱，以宗教、宗派和民族之名夺走数十人——有时是数百人，少数情况下甚至是数千人——的声明。


Again, investigations are conducted and reports are written, but no one is ever brought before the bar of justice.	调查有之，报告有之，但因此被送上审判席者则无之。


To paraphrase Stalin: The intentional killing of one person is murder, but that of a hundred, a thousand, or a million is merely a grim statistic.	用斯大林的话说：蓄意杀害一个人叫谋杀，但蓄意杀害一百人、一千人甚至一百万人就只是冷冰冰的数字。


The idealism of Bangladesh’s young demonstrators, however, points to a new development.	但是，孟加拉年轻示威者的理想主义指向了新的发展方向。


The outpouring of emotion evident at Shahbag was provoked by a decision of an international criminal tribunal convened by the government.	Shahbag所爆发的情绪是由政府决定组织国际刑事法庭引发的。


The tribunal, which tries cases of war crimes and crimes against humanity, found a prominent member of Bangladesh’s largest Islamist political party, Jamaat-e-Islami, guilty of complicity in the killings of 300 people, but gave him a relatively light sentence of 15 years in prison (prosecutors had sought the death penalty).	法庭为审判战争罪和反人类罪而设，孟加拉最大伊斯兰政党伊斯兰大会党（Jamaat-e-Islami）的一位党员被指参与了杀害300人的屠杀，但最后只轻判了15年徒刑（检察官要求判处死刑）。


By demanding severe punishment for those guilty of war crimes – not the Pakistani Army, long gone, but their local collaborators in groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, Al Badar, Al Shams, and the Razakar irregulars – the protesters are also implicitly describing the society in which they wish to live: secular, pluralist, and democratic.	示威者要求严惩战争罪行——不是很久以前的巴基斯坦军队，而是伊斯兰大会党、Al Badar、Al Shams和Razakar游击队等本国共谋——这间接地描绘了他们所愿生活的社会：世俗、多元、民主的社会。


These words are enshrined in Bangladesh’s constitution, which simultaneously declares the Republic to be an Islamic State.	这些词汇都写在孟加拉国宪法中，宪法还宣布孟加拉共和国是伊斯兰国家。


While some see no contradiction, the fact that many of the collaborators who killed secular and pro-democracy Bengalis in 1971 claimed to be doing so in the name of Islam points to an evident tension.	有人认为这并不矛盾，但在1971年，共谋犯以伊斯兰教的名义杀害了大量世俗和亲民主孟加拉国人，这一事实表明存在显而易见的冲突。


If any proof of this clash of values were needed, it came in the form of a hugely impressive counter-demonstration against the Shahbag movement led by activists of the fundamentalist Islamic movement Hifazat-e-Islam, which occupied the capital’s Motijheel area.	如果这一价值冲突还需要东西来证明的话，那就是占领首都Motijheel区的伊斯兰原教旨运动Hifazat-e-Islam的活跃分子领导了大规模的反示威。


Unlike the Shahbag events, the counter-demonstration was well-planned and organized, and conveyed the stark message that there was an alternative point of view in this overwhelmingly Muslim country.	与Shahbag的情况不同，反示威有着很好的计划和组织，传达出明确的信息：在这个穆斯林占压到多数的国家，还存在着不同观点。


The male, bearded, skull-cap-wearing protesters shouted in unison their agreement with speakers who denounced the International Crimes Tribunal.	男性、蓄须、头戴骷髅帽的示威者齐声高唱他们赞同宣布抨击国际刑事法庭和据称是世俗主义的组建法庭的政府的发言人。


Their supporters include activists of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-Al-Islami-Bangladesh, which has fought alongside the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.	他们的支持者包括Harkat-ul-Jihad-Al-Islami-Bangladesh积极分子，该组织和阿富汗的塔利班和基地组织穿一条裤子。


The debate between religious fundamentalism and secular democracy is not a new one on the subcontinent.	宗教原教旨主义和世俗民主之间的矛盾在印度次大陆并非新鲜事物。


But the issue of justice for the crimes of 1971 has brought the divide into sharp relief.	但1971年罪行的公正问题让这一分歧爆发了。


The Shahbag protesters reject Islamic extremists’ influence in Bangladesh, and even call for organizations like Jamaat-e-Islami to be banned, while Hifazat-e-Islam and its supporters want the country’s liberal forces repressed, secularist bloggers arrested, and strict Islamism imposed on Bangladeshi society.	Shahbag示威者抵制伊斯兰极端主义在孟加拉国的影响力，甚至要求取缔伊斯兰大会党等组织，而Hifazat-e-Islam及其支持者希望镇压该国的自由主义力量、逮捕世俗主义博客博主，并用伊斯兰教严格约束孟加拉社会。


The young people at Shahbag are mainly urban, educated, and middle class; Hifazat derives its support mainly from the rural poor.	Shahbag的年轻人大多数受过教育的中产阶级城市居民； Hifazat的支持主要来自农村贫困人口。


Traditional versus modern, urban versus rural, intellectuals versus the peasantry: these divisions are the stuff of political cliché.	传统对现代，城市对农村，知识分子对农民——这些分歧早已是政治的陈词滥调。


But, all too often, clichés become established because they are true.	但是，陈词滥调往往会成为现实，因为它们是事实。


The Bangladeshi government’s sympathies are closer to the Shahbag protesters than to the Hifazat counter-demonstrators.	孟加拉政府的立场更接近Shahbag示威者而非Hifazat反示威者。


But it must navigate a difficult path, because both points of view have significant public support.	但政府必须经受严峻的考验，因为两种观点都有强大的公众支持。


The authorities have even taken steps to appease the Islamists by arresting four bloggers for their posts.	当局甚至已采取行动通过逮捕四位博主（因为他们博客上的帖子）来安抚伊斯兰教徒。


But the government remains resolute in its support for the international tribunal.	但政府依然果断地支持国际法庭。


The irony is that true religion is never incompatible with justice.	讽刺之处在于，真正的宗教从来不与公正不相容。


But when justice is sought for the crimes of those who claim to be acting in the name of religion, the terms of the debate change.	但当人们要对以宗教之名行犯罪之时者寻求公证时，争论的话题就发生了变质。


The issue then becomes one that has been avoided in Bangladesh for too long: whether claiming to act according to the requirements of piety provides an exemption for murder.	问题也因此变成了孟加拉人长期逃避的问题——根据虔诚要求而做出的行为是否能免于谋杀罪名。


The outcome of the standoff in Dhaka should provide an answer in Bangladesh, and its implications could reverberate far and wide.	达卡僵局的结果应能为孟加拉人提供一个答案，其影响可能极其深远。


Remembering and Forgetting Zhao Ziyang	记住和忘却赵紫阳


So, at last former Chinese Premier and Communist Party General Secretary Zhao Ziyang has died. But the political agenda that he espoused while in office passed away long ago, on May 19, 1989, when he appeared in Tiananmen Square just before dawn to beg tearfully for the forgiveness of protesters.	中国前总理兼共产党总书记赵紫阳终于去世了，但他在位时力主的政治议程早在1989年9月19日他在黎明前来到天安门广场，声泪俱下地请求对抗议者手下留情的时候就已经不复存在了。


“I am very sorry,” he said to startled onlookers.	“我很抱歉，”他对目瞪口呆的人群说。


“I have come too late.”	“我来得太晚了。


After that, he existed more as an historical chimera than as a real person.	”从那以后，他的存在更像一头史前怪兽，而不是一个活生生的人。


When his bizarre and unscheduled appearance in the square was broadcast on Central Chinese Television the next morning – during one of the last days of uncensored media coverage – people across China were stunned by this fleeting moment of all-too-human, official anguish.	当他在天安门广场离奇的突然露面第二天一早在中央电视台播出的时候¾那也是中国无需媒体审查的最后时刻¾全中国人都对这位官员转瞬即逝的真情流露感到震惊。


After all, Party leaders rarely evince their personal feelings in public, much less transgress the Party line as brazenly as Zhao did.	毕竟，党的领导人很少当众表露感情，更别说像赵紫阳一样明目张胆的越过党的界线了。


Such individualism fit neither Leninist nor traditional Chinese proscriptions for behavior by a high official.	这样的人既不符合列宁主义者对高官行为的准则，也远远超出了中国传统的禁权主义者所坚持的标准。


As the crackdown following those heady weeks of free expression and assembly came to its apocalyptic end on the night of June 3-4, Zhao vanished, sucked down the Party’s memory hole into which so many other leaders have vanished since China’s “socialist liberation.”	人们在言论和集会自由方面的猛烈行动持续了几个星期，随着6月3－4日晚的镇压最终结束，赵紫阳也就此消失，被吸入了中国“社会主义解放”以来曾让无数领导人踪迹全无的党的记忆空洞之中。


To the discredit of the democratic world, hardly any head of state remonstrated on Zhao’s behalf, minimally demanding that some accounting be made for his illegal and immoral incarceration.	令民主世界蒙羞的是，几乎没有国家领导人出面替赵紫阳说话，至少要求对这种非法、不道德的封杀行动做出解释。


Instead, Zhao was allowed to remain in suspended animation, under house arrest, conveniently forgotten like some cryogenically frozen celebrity with no hope of resurrection.	相反，赵紫阳一直处在一种假死状态，被软禁在自己的宅邸，就像那些没有复苏希望的被冷冻的名人一样，很快就被人们遗忘了。


Zhao was not killed, but allowed to live in an old Beijing courtyard house with his family.	赵没有被杀，而是与家人一道在老北京的四合院里继续过活。


He was let out from time to time, but under guard like a zoo animal, to go to some spa or to play solitary holes of golf, one of the many manifestations of “bourgeois liberalization” that his reform efforts allowed to leak through China’s once hermetic seal.	有时他获准外出泡温泉或一个人打高尔夫，这是他所倡导的改革运动带进原本封闭中国的一种“资产阶级自由化”现象，但外出的时候他要像动物园里的野兽一样受到监视。


Chinese have long since used the deaths of defrocked leaders as occasions to let out sentiments that can find no expression through the normal political process.	很长时间以来，中国人都借被免职领导之死来发泄平时通过正当的政治渠道发泄不了的情绪。


During the winter of 1976, when Premier Zhou Enlai (viewed as a relative liberal in the Maoist hierarchy) died, tens of thousands of people spontaneously flooded Tiananmen Square, giving the Party a tremendous fright.	1976年冬周恩来总理（毛体制下相对的自由主义者）去世时，成千上万人自发地涌向天安门广场，令当时的领导人感到巨大的恐惧。


It was, of course, the death of former Party chief Hu Yaobang, a liberal like Zhao, which set off the protests in 1989.	当然，正是前党主席，一位像赵一样的自由主义者胡耀邦之死引发了1989年的抗议风潮。


Whether Zhao’s supporters will express themselves in a similar fashion is uncertain.	目前还不清楚赵的支持者是否也会以相同的方式来表达感情。


The events of 1989 remain so sensitive, and Tiananmen Square so securely guarded, that it is hard to imagine a protest happening there soon.	1989年的事至今还非常敏感，天安门广场有重兵把守，很难想象抗议活动会很快在那里发生。


At the same time, China seems so drugged on business nowadays that it is hard to imagine many people marching for a cause that would do nothing for their bottom line.	与此同时，今天的中国似乎完全沉迷于经济，很难想象人们会为和心理底线不相干的事而上街游行。


It’s almost as if the Communist Party had turned Marx on his head, replacing religion with profit as the new “opium of the masses.”	共产党似乎已经彻底推翻了马克思主义，用利润代替信仰作成了新的“大众鸦片。


Few outside of the lumpen classes of unemployed workers and dispossessed peasants seem to have any gusto for political protest.	”除穷苦潦倒的下岗工人和一贫如洗的农民外，似乎再没有什么人还抱有政治抗议的愿望。


By contrast, Zhao embodied a chapter in Chinese history when to be a reformer meant to take on not only the economy, but every aspect of life.	与此相反，赵紫阳在中国历史上留下了这样的篇章，那就是改革者不仅要发展经济，还要改革生活的方方面面。


Before becoming Premier and Party chief, he experimented with everything from the de-collectivization of agriculture and separation of the Party from business to laws guaranteeing the rights of journalists and greater openness toward the outside world for ordinary people.	就任总理和总书记以前，他就已经尝试了农业的非集体化、将党政与企业和法律分开、保证记者的言论权利和加强普通百姓的对外开放。


He was even the first Chinese leader to wear a suit and tie rather than a Mao habit when traveling abroad, as well as the first to hold an open press conference.	他甚至是第一位出国时用西服领带取代中山装的中国领导人，他还首次召开了新闻发布会。


Although Zhao was no visionary, no Vaclav Havel or Lech Walesa, and not even anti-communist, his agenda in the mid-1980’s embraced the economy, politics, culture, media, and society, and it led to one of the most open and intellectually rich periods of Chinese history.	尽管赵紫阳不像哈维尔或是瓦文萨那样有着远大的理想，甚至还赞成共产主义，但他在20世纪80年代的政策还是在经济、政治、文化、媒体和社会等诸多方面缔造了中国历史上最开放、思想成果也最丰富的时期。


It was a tragic paradox that the political movement that so peacefully swept China in 1989 ended up arresting the process of broad-based, evolutionary reform to which Zhao consecrated his life.	1989年和平席卷中国的政治运动最终阻止了赵紫阳为之献身的具有广泛基础的进步改革，这个结果充满了悲剧色彩。


So chastened by the trauma of June 4 was the Party leadership that, for several years afterwards, it was unclear if any reform would survive.	此后的几年内，受到六四事件重创的党的领导人都不清楚改革到底还有没有生存空间。


Then, in 1992, Deng Xiaoping set in motion one of the most rapid and total marketizations of a society in history, catalyzing China’s spectacular rise as an economic superpower.	而后在1992年，邓小平启动了历史上最迅速、也最彻底的市场化改革，让中国在经济上迅速崛起。


Zhao Ziyang’s death reminds us not only of how unjustly he was treated, but of how lopsided China’s reforms have been.	赵紫阳之死不仅提醒了我们他曾经遇到过怎样的不公正待遇，而且再一次让我们想起了中国的改革是多么不平衡。


For China’s “miracle” to truly become miraculous, Party leaders could do worse than study the record of a man whose legacy they now seem eager to push into oblivion.	为了使中国“奇迹”能变成真正的奇迹，党的领导人没有比研究这个他们现在急于忘记的传奇更为有效的方法。


Remembering Gaza	铭记加沙


LONDON – Government is all about statistics, but life is about people.	伦敦——从政府那里看到的只是数字，生活的甘苦只有人民自己才知道。


That disjunction explains a lot about the cynicism and disaffection with politics that characterizes much of the world nowadays.	这一差别能够解释为什么当今世界人们会对政治如此愤怒和不满。


And, while domestic problems may seem intractable, distance increases the confusion and fatigue induced by seemingly intractable international problems.	此外，光是国内问题就已经够棘手了，至于国际问题，遥远的距离让人们感到更加困惑和厌倦。


As usual, the people who suffer are those who most need the world’s attention.	与往常一样，正在遭遇苦难的人们才是最需要世界关注的。


This is notably true of the 1.5 million people crowded into the Gaza strip, locked between Israel, Egypt, and the Mediterranean Sea.	一个令人瞩目的事实是，有150万人正困顿于以色列、埃及和地中海之间的加沙地带。


The West has already isolated Gaza’s Hamas-controlled government.	西方已经孤立了哈马斯控制之下的加沙政府。


This week, the US Congress will discuss cutting off aid to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority.	本周，美国国会将讨论切断对约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构的援助的问题。


But this is a time for more international engagement with the Palestinian people, not less.	但在现阶段，国际社会应该更多地关心巴勒斯坦人民，而不是更少。


The statistics say that 80% of Gaza’s population is dependent on UN food aid.	统计数字表明，80%的加沙人口依赖联合国食品援助。


The youth unemployment rate is 65%.	青年失业率高达65%。


The Web site of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has a comprehensive database that shows how many trucks, containing different kinds of supplies, have been allowed in by the Israeli authorities.	联合国人道主义事务协调办公室网站上有一个完整的数据库，列出了以色列允许开入加沙地带的满载各种供给物资的卡车数量。


The situation of the people – or rather the fight about their situation – is periodically in the news, most recently when violence broke the otherwise reasonably effective ceasefire in August.	加沙人民的现状——可以用苦苦挣扎来形容——时不时地会出现在新闻中，最近一次是因为8月份的暴力事件打破了原本相当有效的停火协议。


But Gaza has become the land that time – and the wider international community – forgot.	但此后，加沙就成了时间和国际社会的遗忘之地。


It is for this reason that I took up the offer from Save the Children to visit the Gaza Strip last week.	正因如此，上周我接受了拯救儿童（Save the Children）组织的邀请，访问了加沙地区。


I had not been able to visit while serving in government for security reasons.	此前，出于安全原因，我无法作为政府官员访问那里。


Now I wanted to get a sense of life, not statistics.	现在，我希望实地体验那里的生活，而不是阅览关于那里的数字。


The purpose of the visit was not to meet politicians or decision makers, but to get a glimpse, albeit brief, of how people there live.	此次加沙之旅的目的不是与政治家和决策者会面，而是亲眼看看（尽管只是匆匆一瞥）那里的人民活得怎样。


Barbers, clothes shops, fruit stalls. And a good deal of traffic – with new cars smuggled in through tunnels beneath the “Philadelphi Route” that runs along the Egyptian border.	这就是真实生活：西方男孩常见的印有梅西头像的足球T恤、俯瞰地中海的餐厅、随处可见的戴着头巾的女学生、理发店、服装店、水果铺，还有繁忙的交通——其中不乏通过埃及边境的费拉德尔菲路（Philadelphi Route）的地下隧道走私而来的新车。


But real life is also traumatic and limited.	但真实生活中创伤和限制也随处可见。


We saw buildings – not just the former Hamas headquarters – still in rubble.	我们看到，建筑物——不仅仅是前哈马斯总部大楼——仍然一片狼藉。


Houses are riddled with bullet holes.	房屋上布满了弹孔。


There is no electricity for up to eight hours a day.	每天有8小时没有电力供应。


Shortages of schools and teachers have pushed class sizes to 50 or 60, and the school day is restricted to a few hours to allow for two or even three shifts.	学校和师资力量的短缺使得学校班级规模达到了50—60人，每天的在校时间也被压缩到了几个小时，以便让两批甚至三批学生轮流上课。


The consequences of war are encountered everywhere, nowhere more so than for those caught in the crossfire.	到处都可以看到战争的后果，但交战区的情况最令人触目惊心。


We met the niece and son of a farmer caught in the “buffer zone” between the Israeli border and Gaza.	我们拜访了一位在以色列边境和加沙之间的“缓冲带”被抓住的农场主的侄女和儿子。


She had lost an eye and he a hand to Israeli shells in the war of 2008-2009.	其中女孩失去了一只眼睛，男孩失去了一条胳膊，都是在2008—2009年战争期间被以色列炮弹夺走的。


Save the Children, obviously, is most concerned about the 53% of Gaza population that is under 18.	显然，拯救儿童组织最关心的是不满18岁的53%加沙人口。


The statistics say 10% of children are “stunted” – so undernourished before the age of two that they never grow to their full potential.	统计数字说，10%的儿童“发育不良”——由于在2岁之前营养严重缺乏，他们无法充分发育。


We saw what Save the Children is trying to do about it, at a nutrition center serving mothers and children in Gaza City. The needs are basic: promoting breastfeeding, food supplies for young children, and medical attention for mothers.	我们看到了拯救儿童组织的努力，他们在加沙城建立了一个营养中心，服务于母亲和儿童，提供的都是基本需要：推广母乳、为幼儿提供食品以及为母亲提供医疗。


But not all those who need help are coming to get it, so Save the Children funds outreach workers to encourage families to use the services.	但并非所有需要帮助的人都能得到帮助，因此拯救儿童组织派出大量工作人员鼓励家庭使用他们所提供的服务。


There is remarkable work being done to create opportunities, as well as to prevent catastrophe.	在创造机会和预防灾难方面已经取得了相当的成效。


The Qattan Center for the Child is a privately funded library – and drama, computer, and youth center – that would grace any British community.	卡腾儿童中心（Qattan Center for the Child）是一家足以让英国人引以为豪的私人图书馆、剧场、计算机和青少年活动中心项目。


The director told me it is dedicated to the credo of “building people not buildings.”	其负责人对我说，卡腾中心的信条是“为树人也，非为树楼也”。


The center is a true oasis.	该中心是名副其实的乐土。


The situation surrounding such oases represents the ultimate failure of politics.	这些乐土所处的环境体现了政治的大溃败。


After the war ended in January 2009, the international community was preoccupied with opening up Gaza.	2009年1月战争结束后，国际社会开始专注于开放加沙。


Nearly three years later, there is only stalemate – to match the wider stalemate in the search for a Palestinian state that can live alongside Israel.	如今近3年过去了，却仍然在僵局中挣扎——这倒是和巴勒斯坦人寻求与以色列共享同一片土地的建国计划陷入僵局步调一致。


The responsibility lies, first and foremost, with Israel.	责任归根到底在于以色列。


The UN’s Gaza peace resolution (which Britain authored) calls on the Israeli government to open up the supply lines, but this has been heeded only in small part.	联合国的加沙和平方案（由英国起草）呼吁以色列政府开放供给线，但以色列对此反应冷淡。


That is why the tunnels do such a roaring trade, which Hamas taxes to fund its activities.	这就是加沙隧道贸易兴盛的原因，而哈马斯通过对此课税而获得了大量资金。


The Israeli government would retort that the parallel call in the resolution for a halt to the flow of arms into Gaza also has not been heeded.	以色列政府会反驳说，加沙和平方案同样要求停止向加沙输送武器，但这一要求也没有得到落实。


That is true, too.	此话倒也不假。


Yet the international pressure is muted.	但国际压力还是失声了。


The focus has shifted.	国际社会��注的焦点不在这里。


But Gaza’s people and their needs remain in what British Prime Minister David Cameron last year called an “open prison.”	但加沙人民以及他们的需要仍处于英国首相卡梅伦去年所说的“开放监狱”之中。


Surely there is room across divides of party and nation to address these pressing humanitarian needs, which otherwise would only fuel future political trouble.	毫无疑问，在不同党派和民族关于满足这些紧急人道主义要求的分歧之间还存在空间，否则的话，分歧早就引发未来政治麻烦了。


What makes the situation in Gaza even more infuriating is that the status quo is actually irrational.	尤其令人愤慨的是，维持加沙现状根本是不理性的行为。


It is not in anyone’s political interest.	这不符合任何人的政治利益。


Israel doesn’t become safer, nor do Hamas or Fatah become more popular.	以色列并不能因此变得更加安全，哈马斯和法塔赫也不能因此收买更多的人心。


One young mother at the nutrition center told me that she was just completing her accountancy degree – but there was no work.	一位在营养中心的母亲告诉我，她刚刚取得了她的会计学学位，但却得不到工作。


Yusuf, age nine, working on a computer at the Qattan Center, told me that he wanted to be a pilot.	在卡腾中心，9岁的尤素夫（Yusuf）一边玩着电脑一边告诉我，他的愿望是成为飞行员。


These people are not a threat to peace in the Middle East.	这些人绝非中东和平的威胁。


They are actually its hope.	事实上，他们乃是中东和平的希望。


What they need is a chance to shape their own futures.	他们所需要的只是有机会赢取自己的未来。


Helmut Schmidt’s World	赫尔穆特·施密特的世界


BERLIN – Germany lost one of its giants this week when former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt died at the great age of 96.	柏林——本周当前总理赫尔穆特·施密特以96岁高龄逝世时，德国失去了一位巨头。


Schmidt was the country’s defense minister from 1969 to 1972, finance minister from 1972 to 1974, and federal chancellor from 1974 to 1982.	施密特从1969年到1972年任德国国防部长、1972年到1974年任财政部长，1974年到1982年任联邦总理一职。


Our own day and age may seem particularly tumultuous; but the years when Schmidt governed Germany were anything but quiet.	我们所处的时代似乎格外喧嚣； 但施密特治理德国的时代也根本无法用平静来形容。


His was the age of Ostpolitik and détente, of the first global oil crisis, of economic recession, stagflation, and the return to Europe of mass unemployment.	施密特的时代是东进政策和国际关系缓和的时代，爆发了首次全球石油危机、经济衰退、滞涨、而且大规模失业危机重新出现在欧洲。


His generation confronted the scourge of domestic terrorism and witnessed revolution in Iran, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the rise of Solidarity in Poland.	他那代人不得不面对国内恐怖主义灾难，并亲眼目睹了伊朗革命、苏联入侵阿富汗和波兰团结工会的崛起。


Schmidt is remembered as a hands-on pragmatist, but above all as an accomplished crisis manager.	人们记忆中的施密特是一位亲身实践的实用主义者，但更是一位成功的危机管理大师。


He proved his judgment and his leadership abilities early on, when, as a city senator in Hamburg, he confronted the great flood of 1962, which devastated the city.	他很早就证明了自己的判断和领导能力，在他就任汉堡市参议员的时候，他成功应对了1962年的大规模洪水，那次洪水几乎摧毁了这座城市。


Schmidt reinforced his image as a pragmatist by consistently voicing his deep skepticism of grand designs and long-term visions, albeit without ever renouncing his fundamental belief that there was a moral basis for his political objectives.	施密特反复表达对宏伟计划和长期愿景的深刻怀疑一再凸显了他实用主义者的形象，尽管他从未放弃过自己的基本信念，即认定自己的政治目标无不拥有道德根基。


So it should be no surprise that Karl Popper, with his pragmatic yet value-based approach, was his favorite philosopher.	因此卡尔·波普尔是他最喜爱的哲学家毫不奇怪，因为波普尔务实但以价值为基础的方法与施密特不谋而合。


But there was always more to Schmidt’s outlook on the world: As a son of Germany’s largest port city, he was a committed internationalist, genuinely interested in what lay beyond our borders.	但这并不是施密特世界观的全部：出身于德国最大的港口城市，他是一位坚定的国际主义者，对国境以外的事务表现出浓厚的兴趣。


As a student of Popper, and carrying the memories and scars of the catastrophe of the Nazi years, he was acutely aware throughout his life of both the strengths and the vulnerabilities of our open societies.	身为波普尔的学生、背负着纳粹时代的沉重记忆和灾难伤痕， 终其一生他都对我们开放社会的优势和弱点有着最敏锐的认识。


Schmidt understood that a practical politician had to deal with events as they unfolded, managing them as astutely as possible.	施密特清醒地知道一位现实政治家要在事件发生时积极面对，尽可能明智地对其进行管理。


But he understood instinctively that daily events were shaped by powerful trends and forces: the strategic competition between East and West, the evolving international financial system in the age of global interdependence, and the consequences of decolonization.	但他本能地知道日常事件受到不可阻挡的趋势和力量影响：东西方之间的战略竞争、全球相互依存时代国际金融体系的演化和去殖民地化所造成的后果。


He was one of the first in Germany to notice the rise of China and reckon with the implications of Asia’s return to a leading role on the world stage.	他在德国第一批注意到中国的崛起，并预料到亚洲重返世界舞台领导地位的意义。


For Schmidt, thorough analysis was a necessary prerequisite for all political action.	施密特认为，透彻的分析是采取政治行动的必要前提。


He particularly abhorred an emotional approach to foreign policy.	他尤其憎恶在制定外交政策时感情用事。


He didn’t suffer fools gladly.	他绝不甘心遭受蒙骗。


And, invariably, he acted on his convictions.	而且无一例外地为自己的信念而付出努力。


Together with French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, he pushed for the establishment of the Group of Seven to coordinate international economic policies, and played a leadership role at the G-7’s first summit, in Rambouillet in 1975.	1975在朗布依埃举办的首届七国峰会上，他和法国总统德斯坦一道推动建立七国集团协调国际经济政策并在会上发挥了领导作用。


That same year he sat next to East Germany’s leader Erich Honecker in Helsinki while signing the “Final Act” of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe – a major breakthrough for détente policy and in opening the closed societies of the USSR and Warsaw Pact.	同年他在赫尔辛基与东德领导人埃里希·昂纳克坐在一起，签署了欧洲安全与合作会议的“终极文件”——这是缓和政策的重大突破，开启了苏联和华约组织内部的封闭社会。


Schmidt’s relationship with US President Jimmy Carter was difficult, as many people have chronicled.	施密特与美国总统吉米·卡特的关系并不融洽，这一事实很多人都有过记录。


Yet Schmidt was always a strong advocate of a close transatlantic partnership, which he saw as indispensable for Germany’s security and foreign policy.	但施密特一直是亲密大西洋伙伴关系的坚定倡导者，他将其视为德国安全和外交政策不可或缺的环节。


In fact, his initiative to counter the Soviet deployment of SS-20 intermediate-range nuclear missiles, a plan he set out in a major speech in 1977, was motivated above all by concerns about a potential decoupling of Europe and its US ally.	事实上，1977年他曾在一次重要讲话中提出反对苏联部署SS-20中程核导弹的计划，其背后的主要原因是害怕造成欧洲及其美国盟友的不和。


Schmidt’s principled commitment to the so-called NATO Double-Track Decision in 1979, whereby intermediate-range nuclear missiles were eventually to be eliminated from Europe, came to the chagrin of many in his own party.	1979年施密特宣布最终从欧洲消除中程核导弹的所谓北约双轨决定原则承诺令他的党内同僚倍感气愤。


But it was informed by his careful and sober reading of the evolving strategic landscape.	但上述决定是他在认真清醒阅读战略格局的演变后做出的。


Finally, Schmidt was a true European.	最后，施密特代表真正的欧洲民众。


He had lived through the cataclysm that extreme nationalism had wrought in Germany.	他是极端民族主义给德国带来社会灾难的亲历者。


He remained skeptical about notions of irreversible progress.	他对不可逆转的进步持怀疑态度。


Change for the better could emerge only from practical initiatives, not from Sunday speeches.	局面上的改观不会源于星期日的演讲，而只会来自实际的举措。


Thus, European integration had to be created by real policies and institutions, not by decree.	因此，欧洲一体化必须通过切实的政策和制度，而不能通过法令实现。


So he and Giscard created the European Council (composed of the heads of Europe’s governments), which is now a major player in the European Union’s institutional set-up.	因此，他和吉斯卡尔创建的欧洲理事会（由欧洲政府首脑组成）现在已经成了欧盟机构设置的主要参与者。


They pushed forward the idea of monetary integration, which came to fruition a generation later.	他们推进的货币一体化构想在下一代人身上开花结果。


They embodied the Franco-German commitment to a unified, peaceful Europe, able to pull its weight globally only if and when it acts in unity and with a sense of purpose.	他们具体表达了对统一、和平欧洲的法德承诺，这种承诺只有在统一目标指导下行事才能影响全球。


Schmidt remained a mentor to the German people for decades after leaving active politics.	施密特从政界退隐后数十年仍然扮演了德国民众导师的角色。


International crises, global order, and the future of Europe remained his fundamental preoccupations, and he saw a role and a responsibility for his own country in addressing and shaping all three of them.	国际危机、全球秩序和欧洲未来仍然是他最基本的关注。 他认为自己的国家在解决和影响这三大问题时有责任扮演力所能及的角色。


His thinking had a strong normative foundation, but his keen understanding of the world led him to approach foreign policy with a sense of humility and strategic patience.	他的思维有着强烈的规范性基础，但他对世界的敏锐理解令他能以谦卑的姿态和战略耐心对待外交政策。


It is this rare combination of morality and perseverance that is his legacy as a foreign policy thinker and practitioner.	正是这种难得一见的道德和坚持不懈精神构成了他留给后世的外交政策思想家和实践家的衣钵。


We would do well to keep his priorities and his principles uppermost in our minds, now that he is no longer here to remind us of their necessity.	现在他已不在这里提醒我们，我们最好能够牢记他的思维重点和原则。


Remembering Robert McNamara	纪念罗伯特·麦克纳马拉


NEW YORK – I first met Robert McNamara, the US Secretary of Defense who presided over the American buildup in Vietnam, in the summer of 1967.	纽约——我与美军在越南集结时任国防部长的罗伯特·麦克纳马拉见面是在1967年夏。


I had just returned from a trip to South Vietnam, where, as a reporter for The New Yorker, I witnessed the destruction, by American air power, of two provinces, Quang Ngai and Quang Tinh.	当时我作为一名 《纽约客》 记者，刚刚从南越回国。 我在广义和广平两省亲眼目睹了美军空中力量所造成的破坏。


America’s policies were clear.	美国的政策非常明确。


Leaflets dropped on villages announced, “The Vietcong hide among innocent women and children in your villages….If the Vietcong in this area use you or your village for this purpose, you can expect death from the sky.”	向村庄投递的传单称，“你村无辜的妇女和儿童中隐藏着越共…如果你地区活动的越共利用你村作为掩护，灭顶之灾将会从天而降。 ”


Death from the sky came.	死亡的确从天而降。


Afterward, more leaflets were dropped, informing villagers, “Your village was bombed because you harbored Vietcong….Your village will be bombed again if you harbor the Vietcong in any way.”	轰炸后空投了更多传单，告诉村民们，“你村遭到轰炸的是因为你们隐藏了越共…如果你们胆敢以任何方式包庇越共，你村将再次遭到轰炸。 ”


In Quang Ngai province, some 70% of villages were destroyed.	广义省70%的村庄被摧毁。


I was 23 years old at the time, and had no notion of what a war crime was; but later it became clear that that was what I was witnessing.	当时我只有23岁，还不清楚战争罪行为何物，但后来很显然我亲眼目睹的就是战争罪行。


(Five months later, in March of 1968, American troops committed the massacre at My Lai.)	（五个月后的1968年3月，美军进行了美莱村大屠杀。 ）


The familiar figure with the glinting, rimless glasses and the rigid hair forced back, as if it were spun glass, greeted me at the door of his seemingly tennis court-size office.	那个戴着闪闪发光的无框眼镜的熟悉身影在看似有网球场大小的办公室里接见了我，他粗硬的头发像玻璃纤维般地被梳到脑后。


I felt a prodigious, restless energy that I suspected he could not turn off if he wanted to.  Soon after I began to recount my observations, he took me to a map of Vietnam and asked me to locate the areas of destruction.	我感觉到一种奇妙、躁动的活力，我怀疑即使他着意掩盖也掩盖不住。 不久后我就开始重新审视自己的观察，他把我带到一份越南地图前，要我标出遭到破坏的区域。


I felt that the request was a test – one that I was prepared to take, as I had carried maps with me in the forward air-control planes.	我感觉这个要求是一种测试——我早就想好要接受的测试，因为我在登上执行先导任务的制空飞机时携带了一份地图。


He seemed deeply engaged, but made no comment, asking me only if I had anything in writing.	他好像非常认真，但没有发表任何评论，只问我是否有书面材料。


I said that I did, but that it was in longhand.	我说有，不过是手写的。


He suggested that I produce a typed copy, and provided me with the office of a general who was away.	他建议我打出来，并把当时暂时空着的一间将军办公室借给我用。


What he did not know was that the article was book-length.	他没料到我的文章长得像本书。


It took three days to dictate it into the general’s Dictaphone.	我用了整整三天才把口述内容装进了那位将军的录音电话。


I handed the finished project to McNamara, who thanked me, but said nothing further about the matter, either then or at any time thereafter.	我把录完的东西交给麦克纳马拉，他对我表示感谢，但此后却一直对此只字未提。


Fifteen years later, in 1982, when Neil Sheehan was researching his book about the war, A Bright and Shining Lie, he came across documents concerning my Pentagon-assisted manuscript.	15年后的1982年，当尼尔·希恩为他的战争著作 《美丽谎言》 搜集资料的时候，他发现了我在五角大楼的协助下完成的手稿。


They showed that McNamara had sent the manuscript to the American Ambassador in South Vietnam, Ellsworth Bunker, who requested a certain Bob Kelly to write an overall report, with a view to discrediting my reporting, and arranged to get The Atlantic magazine (where Bunker mistakenly thought my article was scheduled to appear) to “withhold publication.”	这表明麦克纳马拉把手稿寄给了美国驻南越大使艾尔斯渥兹·巴克尔，后者让一个叫鲍勃·凯利的人写一份总结报告，目的是要批驳我的手稿，并要求 《大西洋月刊》 （巴克尔误以为我的文章要在上面登载）“暂不刊发。 ”


A memo recommending these steps was circulated to McNamara, Under Secretary of State Nicholas Katzenbach, and Assistant Secretary of State William Bundy.	一份建议采取以上措施的备忘录被提交给麦克纳马拉、副国务卿尼古拉斯·卡兹恩巴赫和助理国务卿威廉•邦迪。


The “action” officer was Secretary of State Dean Rusk.	“执行”官员是国务卿迪安·腊斯克。


The forward air-control pilots, were re-interviewed, and affidavits were taken.	担任制空先导的飞行员重新接受询问，并签署了宣誓书。


Two civilian pilots were dispatched to fly over the province and check my calculations of the damage.	两名民航飞行员被派遣飞过轰炸省份上空，检查我对损失的评估是否准确。


Plans were considered to publicly rebut my findings.	他们还制定了计划，打算公开反驳我对损失的估测。


But the resulting report inconveniently found that “Mr. Schell’s estimates are substantially correct.”	但最后完成的报告却不巧得出结论：“谢尔”先生的估计大体准确。


Perhaps frustrated by his failure to find factual errors in my reporting, the author of the report offered some editorial comments that epitomized the flawed thinking on which the war rested.	也许是懊恼于未能在我的报告中找到事实错误，那份报告的作者加注了一些编者按，概括了战争赖以生存的错误想法。


I had been unaware, he thought, of some extenuating factors for the destruction I witnessed.	他认为，我没有意识到我所看到破坏有一些情有可原的理由。


I had not known, he thought, that “The population is totally hostile…” Indeed, in the eyes of the Viet Cong, “the Viet Cong are the people.”	他认为我不知道“全体越南民众都持敌对态度…”。 实际上，在越共的眼中，“越共和人民没有两样。


Thus, the main reason for not fighting the war in the first place, namely the perfectly obvious hatred of the majority of the population for the American invasion and occupation, became a justification for the war.	”于是，不打这场战争最主要的理由，即绝大多数越南民众对美国侵略和占领的赤裸裸的仇恨，却变成了这场战争的借口。


When I next spoke at length with McNamara, in 1998, it was not about Vietnam but about nuclear arms, on which we agreed as much as we had disagreed about Vietnam.	1998年当我又一次与麦克纳马拉长谈时，话题却不是越南而是核武器，我们在这个问题上的一致就和我们在越南问题上的分歧同样多。


We both believed that the only sensible thing to do with the bomb was to get rid of it.	我们都认为销毁核弹是唯一明智的选择。


McNamara’s turnabout on this issue was dramatic.	麦克纳马拉在这个问题上的转变非常之大。


More than any other government official, he was responsible for institutionalizing the key strategic doctrine of the nuclear age, deterrence, otherwise known as mutual assured destruction.	他比其他任何政府官员更有责任将威慑，也叫相互保证毁灭，这个核时代的关键战略学说制度化。


Now he wanted to dispense with it.	现在他想要摒弃这种论调。


But, in fact, by then we were closer on Vietnam as well, for he had, after two decades of silence regarding the war, published his book In Retrospect , in which he repudiated his former justifications for the war, famously writing of the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, “We were wrong, terribly wrong.”	但实际上，时至当日我们对越南问题也有了相近的看法，因为他在对战争长达20年的缄默后，出版了 《回顾》 一书，在其中否定了以前对战争的辩护，对肯尼迪和约翰逊政府做出了著名的评论，“我们错了，大错特错了。 ”


Many of McNamara’s critics assert – rightly, I think – that he stopped short of full understanding, that he sought to hold fast to claims of noble intentions that the record could not sustain.	许多麦克纳马拉的批评者称他没能彻底理解这场战争，他试图紧紧抓住根本没有事实依据的高尚目标。


How noble are intentions when the facts showing their horrific results are readily at hand yet overlooked?	当事实证明战争的可怕后果比比皆是却仍有人视而不见的情况下，目标还能有多高尚？


Should McNamara have been more forthcoming in his regrets?	麦克纳马拉的悔意是否让他更可亲？


He should.	应该是。


Should he have expressed them earlier?	他是否应该更早表达？


Certainly.	当然是。


Should he never have recommended the war, or presided over it in the first place, and should there never been an American war in Vietnam?	他是否应该从未支持过越战，也没有指挥这场战争，越战是否根本不该发生？


Oh lord, yes.	啊天哪，是这样。


The twentieth century left heaps of corpses in its wake, and now they are piling up again.	20世纪初全世界尸横遍野，现在这种情况又再次重演。


And yet, how many public figures of McNamara’s importance have ever expressed any regret for their mistakes and follies and crimes?	但有多少像麦克纳马拉那么重要的人物曾经表达过对自己错误、愚蠢和罪行的懊悔？


I can name only one: Robert McNamara.	我只知道一个：他就是罗伯特·麦克纳马拉。


In the unlikely event that a statue of him is ever unveiled, let it show him weeping.	如果有一天他的雕像能够揭幕，让它是一尊流泪的雕像。


That was the best of him.	因为那才是他最美的品质。


Remembering the First \	记住第一次\


In June, NATO's leaders commemorated the 60th anniversary of D-Day, the allied invasion of Nazi-occupied France.	今年六月，北约的首脑们一起纪念D日--也就是第二次世界大战中盟军在当时被纳粹占领的法国的登陆日--60周年。


This August, they passed up the opportunity to mark the 90th anniversary of the start of World War I, which led to calamities that echoed until the twentieth century's end.	但今年8月，他们却错过了第一次世界大战爆发90周年的日子，而这场战争所引发的灾难一直影响到20世纪末。


But the lessons of the Great War are no less important today, particularly for the United States.	第一次世界大战留给我们的教训直到今天都意义非凡，尤其是对美国来说。


The causes of World War I have long baffled the public and historians.	引发第一次世界大战的原因长期以来一直令公众和历史学家困惑不解。


Europe was at the peak of its economic power relative to the rest of the world.	当时，欧洲与世界其它地区相比，其经济实力正处于最强盛时期。


Peace among the major European countries had reigned more or less continuously for decades.	在一些主要的欧洲国家中，和平或多或少已经连续不断地持续了几十年。


A technology boom was revolutionizing, indeed globalizing, the world economy.	一场技术革新热也正在掀起，而且正在全球化，形成世界经济。


For increasingly rich Europeans, the summer of 1914 seemed a peaceful, lazy time.	对日益富裕的欧洲人来说，1914年的夏天似乎应该是一个和平慵懒的夏天。


It turned out to be their last real peace for decades.	但实际上这个夏天成了他们几十年来最后的真正意义上的和平。


That July, terrorists in Bosnia assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of the Habsburg Empire.	那年七月，波斯尼亚（南斯拉夫中西部地区）的恐怖分子暗杀了哈普斯堡帝国的王储斐迪南大公(Archduke Franz Ferdinand)。


Austria responded by invading Serbia, Bosnia's neighbor and an "upstart" Slavic power.	奥地利随即侵占了波斯尼亚的邻国、斯拉夫势力的新崛起国塞尔维亚。


Russia mobilized to support Serbia, while Germany launched a "pre-emptive" war against France and Russia, invading France via Belgium.	俄罗斯调动兵力支持塞尔维亚，而德国却发动了一场反对法国和俄罗斯的"先发制人"战争，经比利时侵占法国。


Great Britain came to the defense of Belgium and France.	大英帝国赶来保卫比利时和法国。


By September's end, a general conflagration was underway.	就这样到九月底，一场大火拼开始了。


But why did the pieces of the puzzle fall into place as they did?	但，有一点疑惑的是，为什么他们会这么做呢？ 是运气不好？


Was it bad luck, miscalculation, or bureaucratic error?	计算失误？ 还是政治错误？


It turns out that the German Army Chief of Staff Helmuth von Moltke was eager for war in the summer of 1914.	结论是，德国陆军参谋长赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇（Helmuth von Moltke） 在1914年的夏天热切地渴望一场战争。


As historian David Fromkin shows in his recent book Europe's Last Summer , von Moltke feared that Russia was gaining too much industrial strength, and that in a few years Russia could withstand a war with Germany.	就象历史学家戴维·弗罗姆金（David Fromkin）在他的新书《欧洲的最后一个夏天》里说的，毛奇害怕俄罗斯的工业实力过于强大，在今后的几年时间里可以在战争中与德国抗衡。


Moltke wanted to invade and defeat Russia before it was "too late" for Germany to triumph.	因此毛奇想在德国难以取得胜利这一天来临之前，趁早先侵略并打败俄罗斯。


The Archduke's assassination provided a perfect pretext.	斐迪南的被暗杀提供了一个完美的借口。


The Germans encouraged their ally Austria to respond by invading Serbia, under the clear expectation that this would trigger war, but in a way that Germany would not be blamed.	德国鼓励盟国奥地利作出回应侵占塞尔维亚，并明确这将引发战争，但这样德国将不会遭到指责。


Fromkin shows that the assassination of Ferdinand merely provided Germany an excuse to fight a European War while it still had, according to its calculations, a chance of winning.	戴维·弗罗姆金认为，斐迪南的暗杀只是给德国发动欧洲战争提供了一个借口，因为当时德国通过预测认为还有一线希望赢得战争。


Every calculation proved to be disastrously wrong.	结果每个预测都被证明是惨重的错误。


Imperial Germany was not threatened by Russian industrial dominance in the way von Moltke feared, and its military calculations also failed.	德国没有受到毛奇所害怕的俄罗斯工业优势的威胁，其军事预测也惨遭失败。


Germany did not knock out France and then conquer Russia.	德国没有击倒法国从而征服俄罗斯。


Instead, the war ground to a bloody stalemate.	相反，战争变成了一场血腥的僵局。


Eventually, Czarist Russia collapsed, opening the way to the Bolshevik Revolution.	最后，俄罗斯帝国倒塌了，为布尔什维克革命开辟了道路。


Germany's launch of WWI ninety years ago this month had a more devastating effect on the world economy than any single event in human history.	由德国在90年前的8月份发动的第一次世界大战，对世界经济产生的破坏性影响比人类历史上的任何一次事件都要大。


The war bled Europe of a generation of youth, and set the stage for a second war a generation later.	战争使欧洲的年轻一代流血牺牲，还为更年轻的一代铺设了第二次世界大战。


It opened the way for 75 years of Soviet communism, and set in motion the financial instability that led to the Great Depression as well as the collapse of the international trading system.	它为长达75年的苏维埃共产主义打开了大门，经济的不稳定还导致了大萧条��及国际贸易体系的崩溃。


All of this matters now because last year America launched a war in which a terrorist attack was also an excuse, not the real cause.	所有这些在今天变得十分重要，因为去年美国发动了一场战争，借口是恐怖袭击，但这不是真正的理由。


The Bush administration wanted to fight Saddam Hussein well before the terrorist attacks on the US of September 11, 2001, but it could not have gained public support.	布什政府早在9. 11恐怖袭击事件发生前就想除掉萨达姆·侯赛因，但那时它得不到公众的支持。


Just as Fromkin shows with regard to Germany in 1914, the Bush administration manipulated US public opinion to support the Iraq War as a war on terror, even though Iraq had nothing to do with any terrorist attack against the US.	和戴维·弗罗姆金所写的1914年的德国一样，布什政府把伊拉克战争描述为一场反恐战争--即使伊拉克与恐怖袭击美国毫无关系--以此来操纵美国公众舆论，博得公众的支持。


The world was never fooled by the Bush administration's case, but most Americans were fooled, at least for a while.	世界没有被布什政府的谎言所愚弄，但大多数美国人民被愚弄了，至少在某一时期。


We know from a long trail of documents, memoirs, and interviews that the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 were a pretext.	我们从一大堆文件、论文集和采访中知道，911恐怖袭击事件只是一个借口。


Richard Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paul Wolfowitz wanted war with Saddam all through the 1990's, and urged "regime change" as a policy for President Clinton, who wisely rejected such irresponsible advice.	切尼、拉姆斯菲尔德、沃尔福威茨在整个90年代一直想要发动针对萨达姆的战争，而且迫切希望克林顿把"政权改变"作为一项国策，但克林顿明智地拒绝了这个不负责任的建议。


Their eagerness for war had several causes.	他们对战争的渴望有几个原因。


They wanted to seize control of Iraq's oil.	他们想抓住伊拉克石油的控制权。


They wanted a new "home base" in the Middle East if Saudi Arabia soured.	他们想在中东建立一个新的"家园"，如果沙特阿拉伯不听话的话。


They wanted to protect Israel from Saddam.	他们想保护以色列不受萨达姆的威胁。


They also had exaggerated fears about American weaknesses, just as von Moltke had exaggerated fears about German weaknesses vis-à-vis Russia.	他们还夸大了对美国弱点的担心，就象毛奇当年夸大德国面对俄罗斯时的弱势一样。


As we know from WWI, wars founded on lies are likely to produce a series of disastrous unforeseen consequences.	我们通过第一次世界大战知道，战争建立在谎言的基础上可以产生一系列无法预料的惨重损失。


The ricochet effects of the Iraq War have combined to yield a mounting threat to stability and security.	伊拉克战争所产生的影响结合了对社会稳定和安全两方面的巨大威胁。


Perhaps the aggressive actions of the US and a resulting backlash in the Islamic world will contribute to nuclear proliferation in Iran, or to nuclear Pakistan someday falling into the hands of extremists.	也许美国的侵略行为和由此导致的伊斯兰世界的对抗反应将引发伊朗的核扩散，或使核巴基斯坦有一天落入极端分子的手中。


World leaders should still gather to commemorate WWI, in the hope that they might learn enough to avoid repeating its disaster in our time.	世界首脑们应该仍然聚集在一起，纪念第一次世界大战，也许他们可以从中吸取一些教训，避免再犯错误，引发灾难。


The Iraq War is not WWI.	伊拉克战争不是第一次世界大战。


We still have time to avoid further devastating mistakes, but only if we are honest about motives, means, and ends - and only if we are honest in the pursuit of peace.	我们还有时间来避免更进一步的破坏性错误--但前提是我们必须诚实地面对动机、用意和结果，并诚实地追求和平。


Remembering the Gulag	追忆古拉格


"There is nothing more inconspicuous than a monument," said the Austrian writer Robert Musil a hundred years ago.	"没有什么比纪念碑更不起眼，"，奥地利作家Robert Musil一百年前如是说。


From the ruins of another empire, Russia's, I would add: There is nothing more conspicuous than an absent monument.	在俄罗斯帝国坍塌之后，我还要再加上一句：没有什么比无字碑更引人注目。


Monuments compose the body of a nation on display.	纪念碑是公众了解国家的介质。


By looking at monuments, we feel how a nation-state affirms its continuity.	通过纪念碑，我们能感受到国家如何延续自己的传统。


When revolutions disrupt this continuity, they wreak violence against monuments.	每当这种延续性被革命颠覆，人们就会对纪念碑发泄怒火。


As the example of Saddam Hussein teaches us anew, to overturn a monument is easier than to try a dictator.	正如萨达姆·侯赛因的例子让我们认识到，推倒纪念碑比审问独裁者更加容易。


Post-revolutionary periods, however, allow for more variety. Sometimes, new monuments are erected.	不过，后革命期为人们提供了更多选择。


Sometimes, old monuments return to their original spots. Sometimes, monuments are in absentia, like professors on sabbatical.	有时候，新的纪念碑得以建立，有时候，旧的纪念碑回到原地，还有时候，纪念碑就像安息日的教授们一样，无所追寻。


While Holocaust deniers have been purged from German universities, Russian universities employ a number of professors of Russian history who conspicuously maintain the Gulag's absence from their lectures.	尽管德国大学清除了大屠杀的否认者，俄国大学里却仍然雇佣了若干俄罗斯史教授，他们从不在讲课时提到古拉格。


Though terror in Nazi Germany and Communist Russia created many millions of victims, the memories of these events are vastly different.	尽管成百上千万人成了纳粹德国和共产党俄国恐怖统治的牺牲品，人们对上述事件的记忆却大相径庭。


The most arresting but unrecognized of all post-Soviet monuments to the Gulag is the 500 ruble banknote, issued in the late 1990's and widely used today.	后苏联时代，古拉格不为多数人知晓的最引人注目的纪念碑是500卢布纸币，它发行于20世纪90年代末，直到今天依然被广泛使用。


Seemingly a testament to the nation's proud history, this banknote carries a hidden message.	似乎是国家辉煌历史的实证，纸币还向人们传达着隐秘的信息。


It depicts the Solovki monastery, a historical complex on an island in the White Sea, which also served as the earliest and one of the most important camps in the Gulag.	纸币上印有索洛维基修道院，它是白海岛屿上的一处历史遗迹，也曾是古拉格最早、最重要的集中营之一。


Local historians at Solovki believe that the atypical cupolas illustrated on the note date the picture to the end of the 1920's, the time of the camp's peak development.	索洛维基当地史学家相信：纸币插图中的非典型炮楼将时间定格在20世纪20年代，也是集中营发展的黄金时期。


The design raises some challenging questions.	这样的设计提出了一些挑战性的问题。


Is this one of those monuments that has been erected not by artists but by critics, who produce meaning not through creation but through interpretation?	这是不是由评论家、而非艺术家竖起的一座丰碑，通过诠释，而不是创作来表达意义？


Were officials of the Ministry of Finance being deliberately subversive?	俄国财政部官员是否抱有颠覆的意图？


Or is the choice of picture on the banknote a symptom of psychological trauma, an unconscious but realistic manifestation of the work of mourning?	抑或纸币图案的选择表明一种心理创伤，是缅怀心理下意识但却真实的体现？


The work of mourning, to use Freud's formula, is continuous.	缅怀心理，套用佛洛伊德的公式，是有延续性的。


But symmetrical evil does not mean symmetrical memorialization.	但同样的罪恶却不一定得到相同的纪念。


There are plenty of memorials on the sites of German concentration camps, and new ones are continually added.	德国集中营旧址上建起了很多纪念碑，新的纪念碑还在不断树立。


In Russia, only two Gulag sites, in Solovki and in Perm, have small museums that show conditions in the camps, the techniques of torture and murder, the documents, and the portraits.	而在俄国，仅有两处古拉格旧址，索洛维基和彼尔姆建立了小型纪念馆，展出当时集中营的状况：刑讯谋杀的技术、档案和照片。


In some cases, monuments are erected not on the former murder sites, as in Germany, but near them.	有些时候，纪念碑并非像德国那样设在从前谋杀的旧址，而是设在旧址的附近。


This pattern represents not the old regime's eradication, but its coexistence with the new one.	上述模式代表的不是旧政权的覆灭，而是新旧政权的共存。


Even such proximate memory is far from being the rule in Russia.	即便如上所述的类似记忆也远未成为俄国的惯常做法。


There is not a single plaque commemorating the Leningrad KGB's victims near the site of their suffering.	列宁格勒的克格勃屠杀旧址附近，没有一块碑刻铭记被害者曾经遭受的苦难。


Such a monument is also notably absent from the vicinity of the Kremlin.	克里姆林宫附近也同样找不到任何纪念性的标志。


The museum on Solovki Island fills just a few rooms inside the functioning monastery.	索洛维基博物馆仅仅占据了修道院中的若干房间，修道院也还在正常运转。


Although about one million people were incarcerated there, there is only one heartbreaking plaque on a shed, which reads, "The children's barrack of the Solovki Camp."	尽管超过一百万人曾被囚禁在那里，也只能在一座小屋前找到一块令人心碎的铭牌，上面写道，"索洛维基儿童营。 "


Some local museums display fascinating objects.	当地有些博物馆摆放的展品非常引人入胜。


In the Kargopol museum, for example, stands a clay pitcher, presented to the museum by the descendants of a guard who appropriated a prisoner's parcel - a pitcher full of honey.	比如在Kargopol博物馆矗立着一座投掷者的泥塑雕像，是偷窃犯人包裹的看守后代向博物馆捐赠的，雕像的里面灌满了蜂蜜。


In such exhibits, however, it is impossible to find answers to the most obvious questions: How many prisoners passed through this camp?	但在这样的展览中，人们不可能找到最明显问题的答案：这座集中营曾囚禁过多少犯人？


How many died here, and when?	多少人在此丧命，又是什么时候？


Who were the administrators, guards, and executioners?	管理者、看守和刽子手何许人也？


Close to the Belomorkanal, one of the Gulag's major construction sites, a large mass grave was uncovered at Sandarmokh.	在古拉格主要所在地Belomorkanal的Sandarmokh，发现了一座大型集体坟墓。


The site is a pine forest near an old highway, distinguished by the small, regular depressions in the earth that are characteristic of such graves.	那里靠近一条破旧的高速路，种植着大片的松树林。 地面上规则的小坑就代表一个个墓穴。


The Memorial Society meticulously compared their archeological findings with the "shooting protocols" kept in the KGB's archives.	纪念团体把这些考古发现和克格勃保存的"枪决备忘录"小心地进行对比。


The protocols never mention names, but they give the number of those who were shot on a specific date, classified by gender, e.g. 20 men, seven women.	备忘录从不记录姓名，但写有特定日期枪决的人员数量，按性别进行分类，比如20男7女。


By matching the number of skeletons and their gender, every "shooting protocol" was identified with a certain grave.	通过比对不同性别的骸骨数量，能找到每份"枪决备忘录"所对应的墓穴。


About 9,000 people were shot at Sandarmokh between 1937-1938.	1937-1938年间，约有9000人在Sandarmokh遭到枪决。


Today, a wooden pole marks each mass grave.	今天，木棒成了集体墓穴的象征。


Designed as a local symbol of mourning, these poles, with their sharply angled roofs, remind viewers either of a peasant cross or a human figure with hands raised in prayer.	作为当地设计的悼念标志，它们的顶部明显弯曲，让参观者联想起乡间十字架，或是合掌默念的祈祷者。


Sandarmokh is the most important, and best developed, Russian site of memory. Unfortunately, it is unknown even to neighbors as close as the Scandinavians.	Sandarmokh是发展最好、最重要的俄国纪念地，但遗憾的是，即便是邻近的斯堪的纳维亚人也不清楚它的存在。


Two better-known memorials in Moscow and St. Petersburg consist of granite stones taken from Solovki.	莫斯科和圣彼得堡两处更有名的纪念馆陈列着索洛维基运来的花岗石。


In St. Petersburg, the stone is complemented with inscriptions, such as "To the victims of Communism."	圣彼得堡的岩石上刻有碑文，比如"献给共产主义牺牲者"。


(This plaque has been vandalized many times, the last with a graffito in red oil paint, "Too few were shot.")	（这块碑刻多次遭到破坏，最近一次有人用红油漆刷上"枪杀的人太少了。 "）


Here we have memory converted to drama.	这里，回忆变成了闹剧。


But Russian memory is also subject to Western-style postmodernist mockery.	但俄国的记忆也逃不过西方后现代主义的嘲讽。


A recent fashion in St. Petersburg are restaurants with names such as "Lenin's Mating Call," "USSR," and "Russian Kitsch," which has frescos showing collective farmers socializing with American Indians while Leonid Brezhnev, resembling Frank Sinatra, gives a speech to a stone-age tribe.	圣彼得堡最近的时尚是饭馆起名叫"列宁在房事中的呻吟，""苏联"和"俄国破烂，"墙上的壁画表现集体农场的劳动者与美洲印第安人联谊，而布里兹涅夫则模仿法兰克·辛那屈，向石器时代的原始部落演讲。


Far more than Nazism, Communism belongs to our common European heritage.	共产主义是欧洲的共同遗产，这一点远远超过纳粹主义。


The memory of its victims is not only a national, but also a European responsibility.	铭记受害者不仅是某个国家，也是整个欧洲的责任。


As generations pass, monuments evolve from a medium of mourning to instruments of education.	随着时光的流逝，纪念碑从悼念的介质变成了教育的手段。


The work of memory is hard, expensive, and fragile.	记忆的保存困难、昂贵并且脆弱。


Monuments move back and forth. Capitals may be renamed.	纪念碑可以移动，首都可以改名，纸币也可能废弃。


Banknotes expire. Everything may be mocked and change meaning.	一切事都会被嘲笑，改变原有的意义。


Even mummies are mobile.	就连木乃伊都可以活动。


In 1961, the mummy of Stalin was observed striding out of the Mausoleum in Red Square.	1961年，人们看到斯大林遗体从红场墓中走出来。


Lenin's corpse remains there, but his departure is expected.	虽然列宁的遗体还在那里，最终的迁徙也指日可待。


This should be a European event.	这理应成为欧洲的节日。


Remembering the Importance of Forgetting	牢记遗忘的重要性


SINGAPORE – “Be careful what you post on Facebook,” US President Barack Obama warned American high school students this past September.	新加坡—“在Facebook上发帖要小心”，美国总统奥巴马去年九月提醒美国的高中生们。


“Whatever you do, it will be pulled up again later somewhere in your life.”	“不管你做了什么，它都会在你今后生活的某个时刻沉渣泛起。 ”


In fact, we all are coming to learn that lesson the hard way: digital information almost never goes away, even if we wish that it would.	实际上我们都是吃一堑，长一智：数码化的信息几乎永远挥之不去，即便我们想让它消失。


The result is the permanency of the past in the present.	其结果就是我们过去的阴云笼罩着现在的生活。


This fact is one of the biggest challenges that society will face as computers and the Internet become more a part of everyday life.	当电脑和因特网日益成为生活中不可或缺的一部分，这一现实也是社会所面临的最大挑战之一。


For millennia, remembering information was costly and time-consuming, and to forget was a natural part of being human.	数千年以来，记忆信息一直是件昂贵且费时的事，而遗忘则是人的本性使然。


In the digital age, the opposite is true: cheap computer storage, powerful processors, and ubiquitous Internet access have made remembering the norm.	在数码时代，情况则相反：低成本的海量储存、强大的处理器、无所不在的因特网令记忆成为一种常态。


Consider this: we tend to retain our rough drafts, years of e-mail traffic, and thousands of ghastly digital snapshots on our hard drives, not because we have decided that they are worth remembering, but because keeping them is now the default way of doing things.	想想吧：我们总是将各种草稿、经年的电子邮件和无数鬼魅般的快照存在电脑硬盘里，并不是因为它们值得保存，而是因为保存它们是一种默认的方式。


By contrast, deciding what to delete is costly.	相形之下，决定删除什么才是昂贵的。


It actually requires much more time and effort to shed data than to keep it.	删除数据其实比保存需要花费更多的时间和精力。


So we click “save” just in case.	所以我们点击“保存”，以防万一。


But it is worth remembering that there is a lot of value in forgetting.	然而值得一提的是遗忘本身是颇具价值的。


Forgetting permits us to transcend details and generalize, to see the forest and not just the trees.	遗忘让我们超越细节，进行概括，不止看见树木，还看见森林。


As some information lapses over time, the world becomes more comprehensible because we become free to focus on what is important.	随着一些信息被逐渐淡忘，周遭的世界也变得更容易理解，因为我们可以重新关注重要的事情。


Forgetting also enables us to forgive others.	遗忘也使我们能够宽恕别人。


Fading memories of past experiences allow new memories to bloom, much as decaying leaves allow for new growth.	对过往经历的记忆消减使得新的记忆萌发，仿佛枯叶与新芽的轮替。


Forgetting thus affords us a second chance, individually and as a society, to rise above our past mistakes and misdeeds, to accept that humans change over time.	于是遗忘给予个人和社会第二次机会，来摆脱过去的错误和恶行，并接受人类与时俱进的事实。


But, with digital memory, that natural process is halted.	但是有了数码记忆，这种自然进程就被终止了。


Instead, the past is always present, ready to be called up with a few clicks on a keyboard or mobile phone.	而过去则如影随形，只需轻击键盘或手机便马上还魂。


Indeed, we are increasingly confronted with outdated information taken out of context, from anachronistic news stories to emotional e-mails and compromising pictures that we had long ago forgotten.	的确，我们日益面临着断章取义的过时信息的威胁：从陈年旧事的报道到电子情书，再到我们早已遗忘的不妥照片。


For example, more and more employers are researching job applicants through Google and social-networking Web sites.	例如，越来越多的雇主正通过谷歌和社交网站调查应聘者。


There are already many cases of people being denied jobs or promotions because of what is unearthed.	由于往事沉渣浮起而导致有人求职或升职被拒的事例也不在少数。


But these are reflections of a person’s past; they rarely provide accurate information about the present.	但这些只反映了某人的过去； 它们几乎不能提供关于某人现状的准确信息。


Obama’s admonishment reminds us to be more discriminating about what information we share online.	奥巴马政府提醒我们在网上分享信息要更具选择性。


His advice is essentially to practice a form of digital abstinence.	他的建议实质上是实行某种形式的数码禁欲。


It is an understandable, pragmatic suggestion – but not necessarily a good one.	这是一个可以理解的、实用的建议—但却不一定是个好主意。


We have much to gain individually and as a society from sharing information with each other.	不论是个人还是社会，我们从与他人的信息共享中都能获益良多。


Too much self-censoring of what we do online would deny us the benefits of the Internet.	在网络交流中过度的自我检查则是因噎废食。


A better approach would be to ensure that digital information, like its offline variants of yesteryear, can disappear over time.	比较好的一种方式是确保数码信息如同其线下的过时同类一样，随着时间推移而消失。


First, we could give digital files “expiration dates,” so that our digital systems would delete the file when the appropriate time comes.	首先，我们可以给数码文件设定“失效日期”，以便我们的数码系统在适当的时候可以删除这些文件。


Second, we could opt to expose our information to a form of digital “rusting,” so that it slowly erodes (and we would need to take proactive steps should we ever wish to recover some of it).	其次，我们可以让我们的信息受到某种数码“锈蚀”的影响，以便其慢慢消蚀（如果我们希望将来能恢复某些信息就需要提前采取相应的保护措施）。


Third, we could separate past information, so that it takes a special effort or additional time to retrieve it, thereby reducing the chances that we accidentally stumble upon it.	再者，我们可以将过去的信息分离出去，以便让检索需要花费专门的的时间和精力，从而降低偶然获取这些信息的机率。


The more we steam headlong into the future, the more we amalgamate the data and detritus of the past and place it irrevocably into the present.	我们越是高歌猛进走向未来，就越是将信息与过���生活的碎片杂糅，并无法磨灭地植入现实之中。


Yet it is not just how information is stored and retrieved that needs to change, but how we think about information as well.	然而需要改变的不仅是信息的储存与检索方式，还有我们对信息的态度。


The onus is on us as much as it is on the computer.	就此而言，我们和电脑一样任重道远。


Harnessing the Remittance Boom	治理侨汇激增


ROME – For more than a decade, Asia’s economies have been on the move – and so have its people.	罗马—十多年来，亚洲经济学一直在流动——其人民亦然。


The scale of migration from rural to urban areas and across international borders is historically unprecedented, and twenty-first-century Asia is its focal point.	从农村到城市的移民和跨国境移民规模之大前所未有，而21世纪亚洲正是焦点。


In Asia’s developing countries, the power and potential of remittances – the money that migrant workers send home to their families (many of whom live in poor and remote areas) – is immense.	在亚洲发展中国家中，侨汇（即移民工人寄给往往生活在贫困和边远地区的祖国家庭的汇款）的力量和潜力是巨大的。


Currently, over 60 million migrant workers from the Asia/Pacific region account for more than half of all remittance flows to developing countries, sending home about $260 billion in 2012.	目前，亚太地区超过6000万赴外务工人员汇出的侨汇占流向发展中国家侨汇总量的一大半，2012年就汇出了2600亿美元。


China, India, and the Philippines are the three largest recipients of remittances, while Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam are also in the top ten.	中国、印度和菲律宾是最大三个侨汇流入国，孟加拉国、印尼、巴基斯坦和越南也位列前十。


The money is often a lifeline: it is estimated that 10% of Asian families depend on payments from abroad to obtain their food, clothing, and shelter.	侨汇通常是救命钱：据估计10%的亚洲家庭依靠来自国外的汇款获得食物、衣服和住所。


But, while remittances to developing countries are five times higher than official development assistance, the enormous potential returns for society have not been realized – and can be secured only if the flow of money can be channeled into effective rural and agricultural development, particularly in fragile states and post-conflict countries.	但是，尽管流向发展中国家的侨汇比正式发展援助多五倍，起巨大的社会回报潜力并未实现，只有在资金流可以被引向高效率农村和农业发展（特别是在脆弱国和经历了冲突的国家）的情况下，侨汇的潜在回报潜力才能得到保证。


Doing so would contribute significantly to creating jobs, enhancing food security, and fostering stability in countries emerging from strife.	这将极大地促进就业创造、强化食品安全，并帮助从动乱中走出的国家实现稳定。


In order to establish such channels, we must scale up key initiatives, identify new opportunities, and map out the road ahead.	为了打造引导侨汇的渠道，我们必须加大关键措施力度，找出新机会，绘出前进路线图。


The fourth Global Forum on Remittances, which runs May 20-23 in Bangkok, will do just that.	5月20—23日在曼谷召开的第四届全球侨汇论坛（Global Forum on Remittances）的目的就在于此。


Convened by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the World Bank, the forum will bring together policymakers, private-sector players, and civil-society leaders to chart a course for leveraging the development impact of remittances sent home each year in Asia and around the world.	该论坛由国际农业发展基金（IFAD）和世界银行主办，将汇集决策者、私人部门参与者和公民社会领袖讨论如何利用亚洲和全球每年流向祖国的侨汇的发展功能。


At IFAD, our starting point is always the three billion people who live in the rural areas of developing countries.	在IFAD，我们的出发点一直是生活在发展中国家农村地区的三十亿人。


We work to create conditions in which poor rural women and men can grow and sell more food, increase their incomes, and determine the direction of their own lives.	我们致力于营造一种环境，让农村贫困男女可以种植和出售更多的粮食，增加他们的收入并决定自己生活的方向。


We believe that diasporas and the global donor community can leverage the flow of migrant investment if they form partnerships with national governments for long-term development of the rural communities that are so often the beginning of the migration chain.	我们相信侨民和全球援助出资者能够利用移民投资流，只要他们与国家政府建立合作伙伴关系，着眼于往往能够成为移民链开端的长期农村社会发展。


More than 215 million people around the world live outside of the countries they call home.	全世界大约有2. 15亿人生活在被他们称作祖国的国家之外。


But most families that rely on remittances operate outside of the world’s financial system as well.	但大部分依赖侨汇的家庭同时也无法利用世界金融系统进行操作。


Despite the global prevalence of electronic money transfers, most migrant workers are excluded from the convenience of modern banking services, dependent on costly cash transfers that often require rural recipients to travel significant distances.	尽管电子汇款已在全球普及，但大部分赴外工人被排除在外，无法享受现代银行服务的便利，他们只能依靠成本高昂的汇款方式，收款人往往需要到很远的地方去取汇款。


As a result, migrant workers are forced to initiate more than one billion separate transactions worldwide each year.	结果，全世界赴外工人每年被迫进行超过10亿笔汇款操作。


That means more than one billion trips for rural women and men to collect their money.	这意味着农村男女需要出10亿次远门拿钱。


Adding up the cost of the transfer, travel, and time, remittances are far too expensive for people living in poverty.	考虑到汇款、取款往来和时间方面的成本，侨汇对于生活在贫困的人群来说太昂贵了。


IFAD has been working in more than 40 countries to ensure that rural families can have easy access to remittances, and are better able to use them as savings or investments that go back into their communities.	IFAD已开始在40多个国家中致力于确保农村家庭能轻松获得侨汇，并更好地将侨汇用于储蓄或流回他们所在社区的投资。


The amount of money at stake is staggering: It is estimated that over the next five years, more than $2.5 trillion will be sent in remittances to developing countries, with almost 40% – coming in the form of payments of $50, $100, or $500 at a time – destined for rural areas.	相关资金数量惊人：据估计，在未来五年中，超过2. 5万亿美元将以侨汇形式流向发展中国家，其中近40%——大多是每次50、100或500美元规模的款项——的目的地是农村地区。


While the majority of family remittances will always be used to meet immediate needs, IFAD’s experience shows that rural families would seize opportunities to save and invest, even small amounts, if they had better options.	尽管家庭侨汇的主要目的永远是满足迫在眉睫的需要，但IFAD的经验表明，只要有更好的选择，农村家庭能够抓住机会储蓄盒投资，即使数量微小。


While remittances should and can be leveraged to bring about impressive results in poverty reduction, let us not forget that there is an underlying issue that needs to be addressed.	侨汇应该也可以被用来为减贫做出卓著贡献，但也别忘了有一个根本性问题需要解决。


Young people, the leaders and farmers of tomorrow, are leaving their rural communities behind in search of better opportunities.	年轻人——未来领袖和农民——正在离开农村社会寻找更好的机会。


We need to turn rural areas into vibrant and economically stable communities that provide opportunities for young people to earn a living, build their capacities, and start a family.	我们需要让农村地区重新变回充满活力、经济稳定的社会，为年轻人提供讨生活、塑能力、建家庭的机会。


We should not ignore the enormous development potential of remittances to rural areas.	我们不能忽视侨汇对农村地区的巨大发展潜力。


Let us empower families to use their hard-earned money in ways that will help to make migration a matter of choice, not a necessity for the generations to come.	让我们使各家各户都有以有助于让移民仅仅成为子孙后代的一种选择方式，而不是必经之路的方式使用辛苦挣得的金钱的能力。


The Diaspora Goldmine	侨民金矿


CAMBRIDGE – Many countries have substantial diasporas, but not many are proud of it.	美国剑桥—许多国家都有大量侨民，但以此为荣的不多。


After all, people tend not to leave a country when it is doing well, so the diaspora is often a reminder of a country’s darker moments.	毕竟，当一国表现出色时，没有人愿意离开祖国，因此侨民的存在意味着一国有过比较黑暗的时期。


El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Cuba, to cite three examples, had more than 10% of their native population living abroad in 2010.	2010年，萨尔瓦多、尼加拉瓜和古巴三国有超过10%的本国人口生活在海外。


And this figure does not take into account their descendants.	这一数字尚不包括他们的子孙后代。


The bulk of this migration happened at a time of civil war or revolution.	这一移民群体大多是在内战或革命期间移居外国的。


In other places, massive outmigration occurred in the context of political change, as in Europe when communism collapsed.	换句话说，人口大规模外迁发生在政治变局时，正如欧洲人口大规模外迁发生在共产主义倒台时。


The relationship between diasporas and their homelands often encompasses a broad palette of sentiments, including distrust, resentment, envy, and enmity.	侨民和祖国的关系常常包含了各种情绪，包括不信任、怨恨、嫉妒和敌意。


Colloquially, people describe a bout of emigration as a period in which a country “lost” a certain proportion of its population.	从语言上说，人们将移民潮称为一国“失去”一定比例人口的时期。


But people who leave a country have not disappeared.	但离开某个国家的人并没有消失。


They are alive and socially active.	他们活着，并且活跃于社交场合。


As a result, they may become an invaluable asset not only to their country of destination but also, and importantly, to their country of origin.	因此，他们可以成为宝贵的资产，不仅对于迁入国是如此，对于祖国也是如此。 后一点尤其重要。


One important connection is remittances, which add up to some $500 billion a year worldwide.	一个重要的联系便是侨汇，每年全球侨汇总量高达5,000亿美元。


The largest recipients are India, Mexico, and the Philippines.	侨汇的最大流入国是印度、墨西哥和菲律宾。


For countries such as Armenia, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Moldova, Nepal, and Tajikistan, expatriates remit the equivalent of more than one-sixth of national income – an amount that often exceeds exports.	对亚美尼亚、萨尔瓦多、海地、洪都拉斯、牙买加、吉尔吉斯斯坦、莱索托、摩尔多瓦、尼泊尔和塔吉克斯坦等国来说，侨民汇款相当于国民收入的六分之一强——常常比出口规模还要大。


And this money can do a lot of good, as the World Bank’s Dilip Ratha has highlighted.	世界银行的狄丽普·拉塔（Dilip Ratha ）指出，这笔钱可以派上大用场。


But a diaspora’s potential economic importance goes well beyond remittances.	但侨民的潜在经济重要性绝不限于侨汇。


As the late historian Philip Curtin documented, from the beginning of urban life, millennia ago, trade typically involved networks of co-ethnic merchants living among aliens.	已故历史学家菲利普·科廷（Philip Curtin）指出，从一千年前人类刚刚进入城市时期开始，典型的贸易活动就已经包括了商人与外族人混居的网络。


Greeks, Phoenicians, trans-Saharan traders, the Hanseatic League, Jews, Armenians, overseas Chinese, and the Dutch and British East India Companies organized much of world trade through such networks.	希腊人、腓尼基人、穿越撒哈拉沙漠的贸易商、汉萨同盟、犹太人、亚美尼亚人、华侨以及荷兰和英国东印度公司通过这一网络组织了大部分世界贸易。


Although these alien traders were sometimes politically powerful in the host countries, they were often weak and faced discrimination.	尽管这些异族贸易商有时也能在东道国获得强大的政治权力，但通常都处于弱势，面临歧视。


The economist Avner Greif argues that these co-ethnic networks’ durability and resilience throughout history reflects their ability to enforce contracts at long distances when the existing institutional framework could not do so reliably.	经济学家阿夫纳·格里夫（Avner Greif）指出，从整个历史过程中看，这些跨种族网络的持续性和恢复力体现了他们在现有制度框架不那么可靠的情况下远程执行契约的能力。


They could establish trust between exporters and importers because they could punish opportunistic behaviors.	他们可以在出口者和进口者之间建立信任，因为他们可以惩罚机会主义行为。


For a tight-knit community, reputational costs and other forms of social punishment transcend geography: not paying for goods might mean not being able to marry your children well.	对一个紧密社会（tight-knit community）来说，名誉成本和其他形式的社会惩罚能超越地域：买货不给钱可能意味着你的孩子找不到好对象。


Legal institutions have since evolved to facilitate impersonal trade.	后来，法律制度的演变开始便利非人格的贸易。


Exporters and importers no longer need to know one another, because they can write a contract that a court will enforce.	出口者和进口者不再需要认识彼此，因为他们只需要立一份契约，自有法庭会替他们执行。


And yet the impact of co-ethnic networks may well be as important as ever.	但跨种族网络的影响仍与以往一样重要。


As Hillel Rapoport of the Paris School of Economics and his co-authors have shown, controlling for other determinants of trade, countries trade more with, and invest more in, the diasporas’ home countries.	巴黎经济学院的西里尔·拉波波特（Hillel Rapoport）与他的合作者证明，控制其他贸易决定因素，各国与侨民祖国进行更多的贸易和投资活动。


In recent work with Dany Bahar, Rapoport has also shown that countries become good at making the products that their migrants’ home countries are good at making.	在于丹尼·巴哈尔（Dany Bahar）合著的最新文章中，拉波波特还证明，各国会变得擅长制造移民祖国所擅长制造的东西。


I interpret these results as the consequence of tacit knowledge or knowhow.	我将这些结果解释为隐性知识（tacit knowledge）或诀窍效应。


To do things, you need to know how, and this knowhow is mostly unconscious.	要制造东西，你需要知道怎么制造，而这一诀窍往往是无意识的。


After all, most of us know how to ride a bicycle, but we are not really aware of what our brain does to achieve that feat, or how it develops that ability through practice.	毕竟，我们大部分人知道怎么骑自行车，但我们并不真正知道我们的大脑要做些什么以实现这一目的，或者我们的大脑如何通过实践发展这一能力。


This knowhow moves geographically in the brains of those who possess it and is transferred to others at work.	这一诀窍会保存在拥有它的人的脑中，随他穿越地域，传授给其他工人。


That is why ethnic cuisines diffuse through diasporas, not cookbooks.	因此，民族美食随着侨民而不是烹饪书扩散。


And it may be why economies with more diverse sets of migrants perform better.	这也许也是移民群体多样化的经济体表现更加出色的原因。


Also, return migration is often an important source of new skills for a country.	此外，归国移民常常是一国重要的新技能来源。


In ongoing work, Ljubica Nedelkoska of Harvard’s Center for International Development has found that the wages of Albanians who never left tend to increase when migrants return home.	哈佛大学国际发展中心的柳比卡·内德尔科斯卡（Ljubica Nedelkoska）正在进行的一项研究发现，从未出过国的阿尔巴尼亚人的工资因为移民回国而呈现出上升趋势。


Evidence of the importance of diasporas is everywhere, if you care to look.	只要留心，移民重要性的证据无处不在。


Franschhoek (French corner in Afrikaans) is a beautiful valley near Cape Town settled by Huguenots in the late seventeenth century.	法兰舒克（Franschhoek，南非荷兰语中“法国角”的意思）是位于开普敦附近的一个美丽山谷，十七世纪末，胡格诺教徒到此定居。


That is why, to this day, wines are made there.	因此，时至今日，那里一直是葡萄酒产地。


Likewise, Joinville is a southern Brazilian city settled in the late nineteenth century by relatively uneducated Germans.	类似地，巴西南部儒安维尔（Joinville）是十九世纪末由文化程度相对较低的德国人建立的城市。