If Africa’s agricultural sector is to achieve its promise – and if Africa’s economic growth is to continue – policymakers should take into account the needs of farmers like Joyce.	非洲农业部门要想实现它的承诺——如果非洲想要继续经济增长——决策者就需要考虑乔伊斯这样的农民的需要。


Hers is a success story that can – and must – be replicated across the continent.	乔伊斯是一个可以——也必须——在整个非洲大陆复制推广的故事。


Meltdowns and Fallouts	熔毁与扩散


BRUSSELS – The metaphors used during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 – earthquake, tsunami, meltdown, black swan, and fallout – are back with a vengeance, but now they are being recycled literally.	发自布鲁塞尔——那些被用来比喻2008-2009年金融危机的词汇——地震，海啸，熔毁，黑天鹅以及放射物扩散——如今又以它们的真实含义卷土重来了。


In fact, the financial crisis and the nuclear crisis at the Fukushima nuclear-power plant in Japan share at least four similarities:	事实上金融危机与本次福岛核电站核危机至少有四点是类似的：


·        The “black swan” metaphor suggests that these events reflect difficulty in correctly assessing risks in complex systems.	·          “黑天鹅”的比喻意味着在一个复杂系统中准确评估风险的困难性；


·        Regulators proved unable to forecast and prevent the crisis.	·         实践证明监管者没有能力去预测和防止这类危机的发生；


·        The “fallout” is potentially cross-border in nature.	·         在本质上看，“放射性扩散”的影响很可能是跨国界的；


·        The costs incurred by the imprudent companies will be partly socialized.	·         由某些公司错误行为所导致的成本在某种程度上将由全社会来承担。


The 9.0-magnitude earthquake that struck Japan is, of course, a highly exceptional event – an event so rare that its probability cannot be well assessed with models based on limited historic data.	当然，日本本次遭遇的9. 0级大地震是一个极为例外的事件——这个事件发生的概率是如此之小，以至于无法用基于有限历史资料的模型来进行全面评估。


Events with very low probability but high impact – so-called “tail risks” – have also been at the heart of the financial crisis.	而这些发生概率极低但又影响极大的事件——即所谓“尾部风险”（tail risks）——也是金融危机的核心问题。


One cause of the financial crisis was financial institutions’ appetite for selecting (and in some cases, creating) products with above-average returns in normal times but excessive losses in exceptional cases. Old nuclear-power plants in seismic zones have a similar payoff structure.	金融危机的其中一个成因就是金融机构的欲望：它们倾向于选择或者（在某些案例中）创造一些在平时能获得更高回报但却会在意外中造成极大损失的金融产品，而那些位处地震带上的老旧核电站也有类似的支付结构（payoff structure）。


Moreover, both the financial and nuclear risk models seem to not have correctly appreciated the correlations between different risks.	此外，无论是金融还是核电的风险模型似乎都未能正确意识到多种风险之间的彼此联系。


While financial institutions tried to mitigate risks by bundling subprime mortgages, Fukushima’s cooling system was able to cope with either a blackout and an earthquake or a tsunami.	当金融机构尝试用捆绑次级贷款的方式来减低风险的时候，福岛核电站的冷却系统也能够分别应付停电，地震或是海啸灾害。


But, in both cases, the failure probabilities were correlated, and their joint occurrence led to catastrophe.	但在这两个事件中，众多事故可能性却连锁爆发，而这一联合反应则最终导致了大灾难的发生。


Both nuclear and financial “meltdowns” tend to leave behind “fallout.”	核反应堆和金融的“熔毁”都可能导致“放射性扩散”的后果。


In the Japanese case, only wind and the lack of a land border prevented a major impact on neighboring countries.	在本次日本事件中临近各国之所以未被大规模波及，主要是有赖于风向以及缺乏陆地边界的因素。


In continental Europe, many reactors are within 100 miles (161 kilometers) of another country’s territory. So a nuclear accident in Europe would likely have cross-border consequences.	但在欧洲大陆，许多核反应堆距离别国领土都不足100英里（161公里），可见一场发生在欧洲的核事故极可能造成跨国界的影响。


But, like financial regulation, nuclear regulation in the EU, even with its Euratom treaty, is still essentially national.	但正如金融监管一样，欧盟境内的核监管，即使是在欧洲原子能共同体内部的监管，在很大程度上还是各国内部事务。


And, given the deep disparities in nuclear power’s importance for European economies, consensus on regulatory harmonization is hard to reach.	同时考虑到核能对欧洲各国重要性的差矣，想在核监管方面达成一致的共识是相当困难的。


France, for example, will remain dependent on its nuclear-generating capacity, which will continue to account for the largest share of its electricity.	例如法国将继续在核发电能力方面保持独立，因为法国绝大部分的电力都是由核电提供的。


Italy, on the other hand, might wish for a zero-nuclear risk environment, as it does not produce electricity from nuclear power but is surrounded (within about 100 miles) by one Slovene, one Swiss, and six French nuclear-power plants.	相反意大利可能会寻求实现一个零核风险环境，因为该国本身并不生产核电，电都是从其国土附近100英里内的各国核电站（其中法国6座，斯洛文尼亚和瑞士各一座）买来的。


French reluctance to subject its nuclear plants to European regulation determined by its nuclear-skeptical neighbors is comparable to British efforts to prevent major European harmonization of financial-market rules, owing to the importance of its financial sector.	正如英国为了本国金融部门的利益一直阻挠欧洲金融市场规则的一体化进程，法国也不会让自己的核电站服从那些质疑核电的邻国所制定的核监管政策。


Another similarity between Japan’s current crisis and the recent financial crisis is that the false risk assessment was largely due to the asymmetric distribution of social welfare and individual cost implied by more effective risk mitigation.	当前日本危机与金融危机的另外一个相似点，就是错误的风险评估主要是由社会整体利益和个体成本的不均衡分配所导致的，而这一点在人们试图实施更有效风险缓解措施时显得尤为突出。


Both Lehman Brothers and Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) were able to increase their profits as long as the risk they were willing to accept did not materialize.	雷曼兄弟和东京电力公司都在他们愿意承受的风险不出现时增加了盈利。


Their management certainly benefited as long as everything went well.	只要不出问题，企业就能日进斗金。


When crisis hit, however, the cost of the meltdown exceeded the companies’ equity and thus had to be socialized.	但当危机袭来，熔毁所导致的成本却超出了公司的资产总值，结果只能由社会承担。


So there is a structural failure in coping with complex private activities that risk leading to large societal damage.	这其实是一种结构性失误，反映出对可能造成巨额社会损失的复杂私人活动的应对无力。


In fact, this is well understood – and is the reason why we have regulators for most such systems.	人们也早已意识到了这一点，也是我们为何对大多数类似系统实施监管的原因。


But, prior to both Japan’s nuclear crisis and the financial crisis, regulators were unable to prevent the risk.	但在日本核危机和金融危机发生之前，监管者却都无法防止风险的爆发。


America’s SEC did not require more capital or halt risky practices at the big investment banks.	美国证券交易委员会并未要求各大投行预备更多资本或者叫停相关风险性运作。


Japan’s nuclear regulator did not enforce stricter security rules.	日本的核监管部门也未能制定更严格的安全规章。


There are several reasons for this regulatory failure, including the inability to acquire and process all relevant data, the political difficulty of enforcing strict judgments, and the difficulty of modeling tail risks.	造成这一监管失败的原因很多，包括无法获取并查验所有相关数据，在实施更严格监管方面所遇到的政治阻挠，以及用模型评估尾部风险方面的困难。


Consequently, relying on low failure probabilities, national policies, the caution of private actors, and monitoring by regulators seems to be insufficient to prevent catastrophe.	结果国家政策，私人部门的自我监察，以及监管机构的监管三者似乎都不足以防止大灾难的发生，只能在低事故概率下过一天算一天。


So what should be done?	但问题是，我们对此究竟应当做些什么呢？


As in finance, ensuring that the originator of a risk pays the cost seems to be the most sensible approach.	在金融方面，最合理的方式莫过于确保风险的始作俑者承担其导致的成本。


If each nuclear-power plant was obliged to insure against the risk that it imposes on society (within and outside the country of its location), it would face the true economic cost of its activities.	如果���个核电站都必须为自身可能对社会（包括国内外）所造成的风险投保的话，它就将面对自身行为的真正经济风险。


In this ideal world, insurance for individual plants would be linked to factors that can and cannot be influenced, such as location in a densely populated area and the local population’s risk-averseness.	在理想状态下，对单一核电站的保险费将与那些可能或不可能受影响的因素挂钩，比如核电站所在地的人口密度或者当地民众对风险的厌恶程度。


Furthermore, risk assessment should be linked to individual plants’ risk factors, such as location in a seismic zone, secondary containment, safety redundancies, etc.	此外，风险评估必须与单一核电站的风险因素，比如是否位于地震带，二次防泄露措施，备用安全机制等相联系。


Plants in densely populated areas with lower safety standards, for example, would face higher insurance costs, which could lead to a self-selected phase-out of the riskiest plants.	比如说那些位于人口稠密区的低安全标准核电站将需要支付更高额保费，而这将迫使核电企业自动淘汰那些风险程度最高的核电站。


Implementation of such a scheme is unlikely, however.	但执行这一方案是相当困难的。


First, it is virtually impossible to assess individual plants’ risk profiles correctly.	首先要准确评估某座核电站的风险几乎是不可能的。


Second, such a scheme would impose large costs on only a few companies in a few countries.	其二，这一方案可能会为某几个国家的某几家核电企业带来巨大成本。


Their governments would fight hard to protect these companies from being required to pay for the societal risks that they represent.	因此这些国家都会尽力维护本国企业，以便它们能逃脱支付自身社会风险的责任。


This likely outcome mirrors the initiative for a European or global banking fund to insure against the next financial crisis.	类似的结果也在试图在欧洲或者全球范围内建立银行保险基金，以防下次金融危机的动议上反映了出来。


In both cases, however, perfect insurance could nonetheless serve as a valid benchmark to guide the choice of policies to implement.	但在这两起事件中，理想化的保险可以成为一个有效的基准，以指导各国选择合适的政策并付诸实施。


Moving towards this benchmark could be aided by two measures: first, a phase-out of nuclear power plants not according to their age, but to their risk profile, however schematically this is calculated; and, second, introduction of mandatory cross-national insurance for nuclear accidents.	对此可以利用两大措施实现向这一标准的靠拢：首先，一个不是参照其运作时间，而是考虑其风险状况（只要能系统性这一计算风险）的核电站淘汰机制； 其二，引入强制的跨国核事故保险机制。


Under such a scheme, the Soviet Union in 1986, for example, would have been required to pay for the costs that the Chernobyl accident imposed on European farmers and health-care systems.	在这样一个方案下，1986年的苏联将被要求支付受切尔诺贝利事故影响的欧洲农民和各国医疗系统所付出的成本。


Implementing these improvements will be difficult, to be sure.	实施这些改进无疑会异常艰难。


As with the financial sector, however, crisis can be the mother of reform.	但就跟金融部门所发生的一切同理：有时只有危机，才是改革之母。


Melting on Top of the World	世界之巅的消融


POTSDAM – In 1845, Captain Sir John Franklin of the British Royal Navy led 128 men on two iron-plated steam ships, Erebus and Terror, into the Arctic, where they eventually disappeared.	波茨坦——1845年，英国皇家海军上尉约翰·富兰克林爵士率领128人，乘两艘蒸汽铁皮船厄瑞波斯号和恐怖号驶入北极，最后不知去向。


The voyage was the culmination of four centuries of failed attempts to navigate the Northwest Passage – a direct route from Europe to Asia across the Arctic Ocean – and remains one of the greatest tragedies in the history of polar exploration.	这次航行到现在仍是史上极地考察最震撼的悲剧之一，也将长达四个世纪西北通道（跨越北冰洋实现欧亚直航）失败的探索努力推向了高潮。


Today, a far greater Arctic tragedy is unfolding: the Arctic sea-ice cap is melting.	今天，一场更加惨痛的北极悲剧正在上演：北极地区的海洋冰盖正在融化。


Last month, an unprecedented new low was reached after decades of decline.	上个月，几十年的逐渐消融造成了史无前例的冰盖存量新低。


Indeed, the ice cap’s area has decreased by half since the 1980’s, when summer sea-ice still extended over roughly seven million square kilometers, as opposed to less than four million today.	其实1980年代后海洋冰盖区已经缩减了一半，那时的夏季海冰还可以覆盖约7百万平方公里的面积，而现在却只剩下4百万。


It is now likely smaller than it has been for at least a millennium and a half.	冰盖面积萎缩至少已经持续1500年了。


In 2007, the Northwest Passage was ice-free for the first time in living memory.	2007年，人类自有记忆以来西北航道第一次摆脱了海冰的困扰。


Boats of all sizes – including cruise ships – have sailed through easily in summers since then.	包括游轮在内的大小船只从那时起可以在夏天畅通无阻。


Walt Meier of the United States’ National Snow and Ice Data Center describes today’s ice cap as “crushed ice.” And it is getting thinner.	美国国家冰雪数据中心的沃尔特·迈耶用“碎冰”来形容今天的冰盖，而且它还在越变越薄。


In the last three decades, its volume has shrunk by roughly three-quarters.	过去三十年间冰盖体积已经缩小近四分之三。


As the University of Laval’s Louis Fortier puts it, “we are three-quarters of the way to ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean.”	正如拉瓦尔大学的路易斯·福蒂斯所说，“只需再融掉四分之一我们就能亲眼见证北冰洋无冰的夏天。


In addition to the sea-ice loss, satellite data show that Greenland’s three-kilometer-thick continental ice sheet is also melting at a record rate.	不仅海冰消融，卫星数据显示格陵兰岛厚达三公里的大陆冰盖也以创记录的速度融化。


In July, 97% of the sheet’s surface was affected.	7月，格陵兰冰盖面积的97%受到了影响。


The meltwater runoff in western Greenland was so strong that it swept away an important road bridge across the Watson River.	强大的西格陵兰冰川融水径流强到冲毁了横跨沃森河的重要的公路桥。


This ice loss, caused largely by human-induced global warming, has far-reaching environmental, geopolitical, and economic consequences.	这种主要由人类活动引发的全球气候变暖造成的冰盖损失对环境、地缘政治和经济具有深远的影响。


For starters, Greenland’s meltwater is flowing into the ocean, raising global sea levels.	首先，格陵兰的冰川融水流入海洋导致全球海平面升高。


As temperatures have increased, the sea level’s rise has accelerated from one centimeter per decade in the early twentieth century to more than three centimeters in each of the last two decades – an overall increase of nearly 20 centimeters since 1900.	随着温度不断变暖，海平面从二十世纪早期的每十年升高一厘米攀升到近二十年来的每十年升高三厘米，从1900年算起总共升高了近二十厘米之多。


While the numbers may seem small, the rise significantly increases the likelihood of severe flooding along vulnerable coasts worldwide.	尽管这些数字看似微不足道，但海平面的升高令全球面临威胁的海岸发生严重洪涝灾害的可能性明显增高。


Greenland’s meltwater accounts for one-fifth of the global sea-level rise over the last decade.	格陵兰冰川融水占十年来全球海平面升高的五分之一。


If its ice sheet melted completely, sea levels would rise by seven meters – meaning that we cannot afford to lose even a small fraction of the ice sheet.	如果冰盖完全融化海平面将上升7米——也就是说我们甚至承担不起一小部分冰盖融化所带来的后果。


Meanwhile, satellite data show that Antarctica’s ice sheet, which is ten times larger than Greenland’s, is losing ice as well.	此外卫星数据显示总量达格陵兰冰盖10倍的南极冰盖也在逐渐融化。


The vanishing Arctic sea ice also affects the atmosphere.	北极海冰消失也影响到大气状况。


Less ice reflects less sunlight, and more open ocean absorbs more heat, which is then released into the atmosphere, affecting wind and pressure patterns throughout the northern hemisphere.	冰盖消融导致阳光反射能力减弱，新增的大片海洋面积吸纳更多热量并释放进大气层，进而对北半球的风力和气压造成影响。


In a recent study, Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus showed that the northern hemisphere polar jet stream, an air current that flows over the middle to northern latitudes of North America, Europe, and Asia, has begun to show larger and more persistent meanders.	珍妮弗·弗朗西斯和斯蒂芬·维福路斯一项近期研究显示流经北美、欧洲和亚洲中北纬度地区的北半球极地喷射气流已经开始出现明显持久的蜿蜒迂回状况。


This increases the likelihood of extreme weather events, like Russia’s heat wave and Pakistan’s floods in 2010, which affected millions of people.	这种气流变化增大了极端天气事件的可能性，比方说对数百万人造成影响的2010年巴基斯坦洪灾和俄罗斯热浪。


Further exacerbating the problem, the disappearance of Arctic sea-ice has triggered a rush to secure newly accessible resources, particularly fossil fuels, which are a primary cause of global warming.	更棘手的是北极海冰消融引发了争夺新的可利用资源、特别是化石燃料的浪潮，而全球变暖主要就是由化石燃料导致的。


(It has even revived efforts to find the wreckage of Franklin’s lost ships.)	（人们甚至重新试图寻找富兰克林失踪船只的残骸。 ）


The recent Global Energy Assessment, released by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, shows that combating global warming while providing affordable energy worldwide is technologically and economically feasible.	国际应用系统分析研究所公布的近期全球能源评估显示在全世界供应经济能源的同时战胜全球变暖在经济和技术上是可以实现的。


But the energy transformation must begin now.	但必须从现在开始迈出能源转型的步伐。


The longer powerful interests deny humanity’s contribution to global warming, the more difficult it will be to arrest and reverse its effects.	有权有势的利益集团否认人类造成全球变暖的时间越长，就越难遏止和扭转人类所造成的影响。


One hopes that the satellite footage of the Arctic meltdown will help to inspire serious action.	希望北极冰雪消融的卫星实拍镜头能促使人类采取严肃的行动。


Melting Pot or Economic Meltdown	大熔炉还是经济崩溃


Worried about an invasion of migrant workers from the new member states of Central and Eastern Europe, the old EU members have erected high barriers in order to prevent the flow.	由于担心来自中欧及东欧新成员国的流动工人的入侵，欧盟各老成员国纷纷高筑屏障以阻止这样的人流。


Despite the open market rhetoric of the EU, for most citizens of the new member states free labor mobility will not be a reality for the next seven years at least.	尽管欧盟高谈阔论开放市场的原则，但对于新成员国的大多数公民来说，劳动力的自由流动至少在未来7年还不会成为现实。


This is a politically understandable but flawed policy.	这样的政策在政治层面上可以理解但却有硬伤。


One of the key achievements of the European Union is mobility of goods and inputs.	欧盟的关键成就之一就是货物和输入（inputs）的流动性。


Without this, what kind of a union would the EU be?	没有了这样的流动欧盟会是怎样的一个联盟呢？


Otherwise, what, precisely, do the new countries get out of membership other than the nagging intrusions of the Brussels bureaucracy?	否则，新成员国们除了受到来自布鲁塞尔的官僚主义喋喋不休的侵扰之外，究竟还能从成员资格中得到什么好处呢？


Given the high hopes that preceded ascension to the EU, and the stingy attitude of the Union to its new members, it should not surprise anyone if an anti-European reaction soon starts to brew in these countries.	考虑到新成员国加入欧盟之前的高期望值和欧盟吝啬的现实态度，即使一种反欧洲的情绪很快在上述国家滋生也不足为奇了。


So the cure is as bad as the disease: discrimination against the new members creates political problems of its own for the Union.	这就像是饮鸩止渴：对新成员国的歧视本身就会给欧盟造成政治问题。


The real question is whether there is a disease at all.	真正的问题在于这样的政策是否有点小题大做？


Should Western Europe really be worried about an enormous flow of new immigrants?	西欧真的有必要担心汹涌的新移民潮吗？


In fact, estimates of potential migration flows from East to West are relatively small.	实际上，对从东欧到西欧的潜在人流的估计数字还是相对较小的。


According to An agenda for a growing Europe , a report published by Oxford University Press in 2004 for the European Commission, 250,000 to 450,000 workers will go West during the first one to two years, followed by around 100,000 to 200,000 annually thereafter.	根据牛津大学出版社2004年为欧洲委员会发表的一份题为《成长中的欧洲议程》（ An agenda for a growing Europe ） 的报告，在头一两年约有25万到45万工人会进入西欧，此后每年的进入人数会在10万至20万之间。


Over the first decade, the cumulative number of migrants might amount to between 1.5 and four million, that is, 2.4% to 5% of the total population in the new member states - and a tiny fraction of the total population in the current Union.	在最初的10年，移居者总数可能会在150万到4百万之间，即占新成员国总人口的2. 4%至5%--现欧盟总人口的极小一部分。


Aging populations and lower fertility rates in the new member states might result in even smaller flows.	新成员国人口老龄化和更低的生育率可能会使这一数量进一步减小。


There is another, less obvious, reason why the EU's policy on migration is flawed.	欧盟移民政策的硬伤还有一个不太显著的方面。


As Mircea Geoana, Romania's bright young Minister of Foreign Affairs, recently put it: "If the EU waits another seven or ten years before it opens up, the workers it will receive from my country will be the least qualified, peasants and individuals with low human capital: by then, the doctors, the architects and the engineers will all have migrated to the United States."	正如罗马尼亚年轻有为的外交部长米尔恰·达恩·杰瓦讷(Mircea Geoana)最近指出："如果欧盟再等7到10年才开放，那么它从我们国家接收到的工人将会是资质最低的农民和其他低人力资本的人：到那时，医生、建筑师和工程师都移民到美国去了。 "


Indeed, this is precisely what happened with the Russians: the most qualified have already gone to the US.	的确，俄罗斯就是这种情况的写照：资质最高的人才已经移民去了美国。


Europe has been unable to attract much more than a few disreputable oligarchs, who migrated to the French Riviera, and a handful of lively street singers.	欧洲除了吸引到一些声名狼藉的寡头政客偏居于法国的里维埃拉和一些活跃的街头歌手之外一无所获。


Western Europe is increasingly inhabited by aging populations that have lost the incentive and enthusiasm to work hard, take risks, and be ambitious.	西欧不断老龄化的人口正日渐增加。 他们已经失去了努力工作、驾驭风险和实现雄心的动力和热情。


Without an inflow of new blood and new ideas, the old Continent's economic future looks bleak.	没有新鲜血液和思想的注入，衰老的欧洲大陆的经济前景会是一片黯然。


Just look at the US: where would America be if it had introduced barriers to entry to various waves of new immigrants and remained confined to Anglo Saxon settlers?	再看美国：如果它设置壁垒阻止若干次新移民潮的涌入而仍然只接收盎格鲁-萨克森定居者，现在的美国又会是怎样一番景象？


To be sure, managing a melting pot is not easy, and many of America's social problems are related to difficult race relations.	固然，管理大熔炉决非易事，美国的很多社会问题都源自其困难的种族关系。


But New York and Los Angeles, the two most ethnically diverse cities in the US, are also America's leaders in business and in the arts.	但纽约和洛杉矶，种族最为多样化的两个美国城市，同时也是美国商业和艺术的领军者。


Nothing comes easy in this world: if the Union cannot manage a multicultural society in Europe, then it ought to prepare itself for permanent stagnation.	这世界上的任何事都得来不易：如果欧盟不能管理一个多文化的欧洲社会，那么它就应该准备好应对永久的停滞。


So long as the Union's borders remain closed, there is also a risk that foreign investment will fly over Western Europe and land in Central and Eastern Europe, where people are willing to work longer hours, market regulations are less intrusive, and human capital is relatively high, because Communist schools were good at technical training.	只要欧盟的边界仍然关闭，它还会承受外来投资掠过西欧进入中欧和东欧的风险。 那里的人们愿意工作更长的时间，市场管制也更为宽松。


These countries have opened their markets to foreign investors - and foreign investors are responding eagerly.	共产主义国家的学校在技术培训方面的优势使得其人力资本也相对较高。 这些国家已经对外国投资者开放-而外国投资者也正积极回应。


Given Western Europe's growing need for labor in the years ahead, the question is not whether to have immigration, but only where that immigration is going to come from.	如果西欧对劳力的需求在未来几年会持续增长，那么现在的问题就不是"是否"需要移民，而是移民应该从"哪里"来。


Will it be the legal immigration of easily assimilated people from Central and Eastern Europe, or illegal immigration from the Maghreb?	是来自中欧和东欧的易于被同化的合法移民，还是来自于马格里布的非法移民？


Memoirs of an Anti-Semite	一个反犹太分子的传记


Romania's most vicious anti-Semitic and ultra-nationalist politician, Corneliu Vadim Tudor, is trying hard to persuade people that he has changed his ways.	罗马尼亚最恶意的反犹太人和极端民族主义政客，科内里欧·瓦迪姆·都铎正努力使人们相信他已经洗心革面了。


For most journalists and political pundits in Romania, this self-proclaimed Damascene conversion looks like just another political farce from someone with unrivaled histrionic gifts.	在罗马尼亚的大多数新闻记者和政治批评家看来，这种自我标榜的大马士革式的转变无外乎是一个拥有超群的戏剧才能的人所上演的另一出闹剧罢了。


If Tudor were a mere political clown, the question of whether or not he still hates Jews would not matter.	如果都铎只是一个政治小丑，那么他是否仍然憎恨犹太人的问题就无足轻重。


But Tudor is a political power to be reckoned with.	但都铎是一支不容忽视的政治力量。


As parliamentary and presidential elections loom, everyone wants to figure out just what he is up to.	在国会和总统选举即将到来之际，所有人都在揣测他究竟意在何为。


Tudor was ex-dictator Nicolae Ceausescu's court poet.	都铎是前独裁者尼可莱·齐奥塞斯库的御用诗人。


He supported the Securitate (Romania's communist-era secret police) and praised Ceausescu's patriotism.	他支持Securitate（罗马尼亚在共产主义时代的秘密警察）并赞扬齐奥塞斯库的爱国精神。


When communism collapsed, he blamed every shortcoming in the reform process on "foreigners" - meaning the West, Romania's ethnic Hungarian minority, and especially the Jews.	当共产主义崩溃后，他又将改革进程中的一切弊病归咎于"外国人"-即西方、罗马尼亚的匈牙利少数民族，特别是犹太人。


Indeed, he developed a cult for Marshall Ion Antonescu, Romania's dictator between 1940-1944 and Hitler's ally, who was responsible of ordering the massacre of about 200,000 Jews.	事实上，他为罗马尼亚在1940-1944年间的独裁者和希特勒的盟友马歇尔·伊恩·安东尼斯库树立了一种宗教式的崇拜。


The violence of Tudor's rhetoric, directed against everybody who opposed him, rose to heights not seen since the Fascist era.	此人亲自下令屠杀了约20万犹太人。 都铎针对所有反对者的文字暴力达到了自法西斯时代以来的新高度。


In 1990, Tudor set up a weekly magazine through which he incited vicious and reactionary campaigns.	在1990年，都铎创办了一份周刊，并用其煽动恶意和反动的政治运动。


Soon after he founded the extreme nationalist Greater Romania Party (PRM), as well as a so-called "national treason list," on which almost every notable political and cultural figure had his or her place.	紧接着他又创建了极端民族主义的大罗马尼亚党，并炮制了一份所谓的"叛国者名单"。 几乎所有知名的政治和文化界人物都上了这份名单。


He threatened (or promised) that criminals would be herded into stadiums and machine-gunned should he come to power.	他威胁（或承诺）说如果他上台，这些罪犯会被赶进体育场然后用机枪处决。


Although Tudor faced innumerable lawsuits for libel, he could not be silenced.	虽然都铎面临着不计其数的诽谤诉讼，但他仍没有缄口。


In the 2000 general election, as the ruling center-right coalition imploded, the PRM received about 20% of the popular vote, becoming the second-largest party in parliament.	在2000年的大选中，由于执政的中间派-右翼联盟破裂，大罗马尼亚党获得了20%的选票从而成为国会中的第二大党派。


Tudor subsequently finished second in the presidential election.	都铎也随即在总统选举中成为亚军。


Then, suddenly, a few months ago, Tudor announced that he had undergone a religious experience and had changed his mind about the Jews.	而就在数月以前，都铎宣布他在经历了一番宗教体验之后改变了对犹太人的看法。


He admitted that he had been anti-Semitic, but he claimed that God had opened his eyes and that he now loved Jews as much as he used to hate them.	他承认自己曾经是反犹太人的，但他声称上帝开启了他的慧眼，因而他现在对犹太人的爱与曾对他们的恨一样深。


Indeed, he began apologizing for his earlier anti-Semitic hate speech.	他甚至开始为自己早先的反犹太人言论道歉。


The man who once said that he could "well imagine world culture without Jews" now claimed to realize how quintessential the Jews are for world culture.	这个曾表示"完全能够想象没有犹太人的世界文化"的人现在却声称意识到犹太人对世界文化有多么的重要。


He announced that he had hired Eyal Arad, a well-known Israeli spin-doctor, to run his presidential campaign.	他宣布雇用著名的以色列政治代言人埃亚·阿拉德来负责他的总统竞选活动。


"The Jews" were not his enemies any more, he said; they were even working for him.	他说"犹太人"不再是他的敌人； 他们甚至为他工作。


But Tudor didn't stop with prolix apologies.	但都铎并不仅仅满足于冗长的道歉。


He soon sponsored the unveiling of a bust of the assassinated Israeli premier Yitzak Rabin at Brasov in Transylvania.	他随即又在塔兰西瓦尼亚的布拉索夫赞助了遇刺的以色列总理伊萨克·拉宾半身像的揭幕仪式。


For the occasion, Tudor wore a yarmulke and spoke about his "philo-Semitism" for more than two hours . Other PRM representatives, provided with yarmulkes by Tudor, shuffled their feet awkwardly.	都铎特意为这一场合戴了一顶犹太人的小圆帽，并花了两个多小时宣讲他的"亲犹太主义"。 其他戴着都铎所发的小圆帽的大罗马尼亚党的代表们却尴尬得有些手足无措。


A chorus sang Romanian and Jewish songs and everybody expressed the vow that Vadim would be the "next and the first Christian President" of Romania, the yarmulke notwithstanding!	唱诗班演唱了罗马尼亚和犹太歌曲，所有人都信誓旦旦地表示瓦迪姆虽然戴着犹太小帽，但将会成为罗马尼亚"下一任也是第一位基督教徒总统"。


Next, Tudor headed a PRM delegation to lay a wreath at Auschwitz, where the one-time Holocaust denier declared that Jews had been exterminated in Romania.	接着，都铎又率大罗马尼亚党代表团前往奥斯威辛献花圈。 这那里，这个曾一度否认大屠杀的人宣布犹太人在罗马尼亚曾经遭受过种族灭绝。


What lies behind this political opportunism?	这种政治机会主义背后的动因究竟是什么呢？


Tudor knows that his electoral success in 2000 belongs to the past.	都铎明白他在2000年选举中的成功已经成为历史。


At the local elections held in June, the PRM did poorly.	在今年6月进行的地方选举中，大罗马尼亚党表现不佳。


The really big battle this November will be joined by the Social Democrats (PDSR) and by the centrist alliance Democratic Alliance.	在今年11月的真正大战中还会有社会民主党和中间派的民主联盟参与竞争。


Tudor has no chance of becoming "the first Christian President of Romania."	都铎没有机会成为"罗马尼亚的首位基督教徒总统"。


His only chance of gaining even a share of power is to join in a future coalition, and for this he has to look semi-respectable.	甚至连他分享权力的唯一机会都在于加入一个未来的联盟。 为了这一点，他至少要在表面上值得尊敬。


In fact, Tudor's strategy may work, because the ex-communist PDSR, led by President Ion Iliescu and Prime Minister Adrian Nastase, will probably not oppose such an alliance if it is necessary to give them a majority after November's general election.	事实上，都铎的战略可能会成功。 因为在总统扬·伊利埃斯库和总理阿德里安·讷斯塔塞领导下的社会民主党为了在11月的大选中获得多数票可能不会拒绝这样的联盟。


They are desperate to cling to power, no matter what, and so are unlikely to question Tudor's democratic pedigree.	他们会不惜一切代价争取掌权，因而可能不会追究都铎的民主家史。


After all, they governed together with the PRM from1992 to 1996.	毕竟他们在1992-1996年间曾与大罗马尼亚党共同执政。


Yet, there is a hitch: Romania is due to join the EU in 2007, and with the PRM in the government but branded as an extremist, anti-Semitic party, the integration process could be derailed.	但这样做也是有风险的：罗马尼亚原定于在2007年加入欧盟，在被定性为极端主义和反犹太政党的大罗马尼亚党加入政府的情况下，融合的进程可能会受到阻碍。


No EU government will want to invite into the club an administration that contains Romania's far uglier version of Le Pen and Haider.	没有任何一个欧盟成员国的政府愿意邀请这样的一个政府加入俱乐部。 它包括了罗马尼亚远比勒彭和 海德更为不堪的人物。


This is why Tudor desperately needs a patina of democratic respectability.	这就是为什么都铎迫切地需要为自己罩上一层值得尊敬的民主品格的光环。


Tudor seems to hope that by putting on a yarmulke and repenting his anti-Semitism, he will deceive a few naive Western politicians.	都铎似乎希望通过头戴犹太小圆帽和对自己的反犹太主义进行忏悔可以欺骗一些天真的西方政治家。


But no one should be fooled.	但我们都不应该被他愚弄。


Despite his political zigzags, Tudor has been extremely consistent.	尽管在政治��投机，都铎的立场还是始终如一。


He has always thought and written that "the Jews" brought capitalism, communism, spiritualism, alcoholism, decadent Hollywood movies, and pornography to Romania.	在思想和文字中他都认为"犹太人"将资本主义、共产主义、唯心主义、酗酒、堕落的好莱坞电影和色情文学带到了罗马尼亚。


But saying that publicly won't work anymore, not because Romanians do not think this way (many certainly do), but because the political class from left to right wants to be part of Europe and won't associate with anyone who puts that desire at risk.	但在公开场合发表这样的言论已经不再起作用了。 这倒不是因为罗马尼亚人不认同这样的观点（许多人也这么认为），而是从左翼到右翼的政治阶层都想成为欧洲的一部分因而会与任何危及这一愿望的人划清界限。


So Tudor's embrace of the Jews is a conversion of convenience.	因此都铎拥抱犹太人的姿态不过是一种功利的转变。


If Paris was worth a mass to the French kings of old, Bucharest is worth a yarmulke to Tudor.	如果说巴黎对于法国历代帝王的价值仅止于一场弥撒，那么布加勒斯特对于都铎来说也仅等价于一顶犹太小圆帽而已。


Defeating Meningitis in Africa	击败非洲的脑膜炎


SEATTLE – Africa’s progress in fighting meningitis A is one of the best-kept secrets in global health.	西雅图——非洲在与甲型脑膜炎斗争过程中所取得的进步是全球卫生领域保守最好的秘密之一。


Thanks to the development and deployment of a low-cost vaccine, the lives of hundreds of thousands of children have been saved, and communities that might otherwise have been devastated by the illness are thriving.	低成本疫苗的研发和部署挽救了数十万孩子的生命，如果没有疫苗可能已被疾病摧毁的社区现在正在实现繁荣。


Meningococcal A meningitis is a bacterial infection of the thin lining surrounding the brain and spinal cord, and it can be deadly.	流行性甲型脑膜炎是一种致命疾病，具体来讲就是细菌感染了大脑和脊髓周边薄膜组织。


For more than a century, epidemics have swept across 26 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, killing and disabling tens of thousands of primarily young people every year.	一个多世纪以来，上述传染病席卷了撒哈拉以南非洲26个国家，每年造成以年轻人为主的数以万计的民众致死和致残。


The disease is highly feared on the continent; it can kill within hours or leave its victims with severe brain damage.	非洲大陆的民众非常恐惧这种疾病； 它能在短短数小时内致人于死命，或者造成受害者严重脑损伤。


Outbreaks usually occur at the beginning of the calendar year, when dry winds from the Sahara Desert begin blowing southward.	疫情往往伴随着撒哈拉沙漠干燥的劲风南吹在每年的年初爆发。


The 1996-1997 epidemic resulted in more than 250,000 cases and 25,000 deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa, many of them children.	1996到1997年的脑膜炎流行在撒哈拉以南非洲地区造成超过25万人感染，已经造成25万人死亡，其中很多都是儿童。


Of those who survived, one in four were left with permanent disabilities, including paralysis, blindness, hearing loss, seizures, and brain damage.	在那些侥幸存活的人当中，高达四分之一留下了终身残疾，包括瘫痪、失明、听力丧失、癫痫和脑损伤。


The impact of meningitis A on families and communities is devastating.	甲型脑膜炎会对家庭和社会造成毁灭性的影响。


In order to pay for treatment, many families are forced to sell the assets they need to sustain their livelihoods: livestock, seed stock, and tools.	为支付治疗费用，很多家庭被迫出售他们赖以维生的资产：包括家畜、种子和各种工具。


Furthermore, the disabilities caused by the infection can leave survivors less able to earn income or care for themselves and their families.	此外，感染引起的残疾可以削弱幸存者赚取收入、照顾自己和家人的能力。


Whole communities can be plunged into deeper levels of poverty as health-care workers struggle to contain outbreaks.	尽管医疗工作者全力遏制疫情，仍无法避免整个社区陷入到更严重的贫困当中。


The suffering caused by the disease served as an impetus for action.	疾病造成的痛苦可以促使人们采取行动。


Sixteen years ago, African health ministers, the international health NGO PATH, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Serum Institute of India, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and dozens of other partners formed the Meningitis Vaccine Project (MVP).	16年前，非洲各国卫生部长、国际卫生，非政府组织PATH、世界卫生组织（WHO）、   印度血清研究所、比尔及梅林达·盖茨基金会以及几十家其他合作机构共同组建了脑膜炎疫苗项目（MVP）。


The mission was simple: to develop an affordable vaccine to fight meningitis A in Africa.	该项目目标非常简单：研发一种对抗非洲甲型脑膜炎的廉价疫苗。


The project was successful.	该项目是成功的。


In less than ten years, the MenAfriVac vaccine was launched and has produced an immediate and dramatic break in the cycle of meningitis A epidemics.	在不到10年时间里推出了MenAfriVac疫苗，即时彻底地打破了甲型脑膜炎的传染循环。


I was in Burkina Faso for the vaccine’s introduction in December 2010.	2010年10月疫苗对外公布时，我正在布基纳法索。


I was worried whether anyone would show up.	我担心没人会来参与这项活动。


But when I met the minister of health the day before the launch and asked him what his biggest concern was, he gave me a surprising answer: “Crowd control.”	但当发布会前一天我碰到卫生部长并询问他最关心的问题时，他所谓“防范拥挤”的回答完全出乎我的预料。


He was right.	他说的没错。


Huge crowds formed at every immunization site, standing in line in the hot sun, eager to receive protection against the deadly disease.	各免疫现场全都人山人海，人们冒着炎炎烈日排队等候，迫不及待的想要注射预防这种致命疾病的疫苗。


It was, quite literally, a state event, with the president in attendance.	毫不夸张地讲，这是一次全国性事件，总统都亲自来到活动现场。


The first vaccination campaign reached virtually everyone in the country aged 1-29.	第一次疫苗接种活动就覆盖了国内1到29岁几乎所有的人口。


In the five years since then, more than 235 million people have been immunized across Sub-Saharan Africa.	之后短短5年内，撒哈拉以南非洲地区已有超过2. 35亿人接种了疫苗。


By 2020, the vaccine is expected to protect more than 400 million people – preventing one million cases of meningitis A, 150,000 deaths from the disease, and 250,000 cases of severe disability among survivors.	到2020年，该疫苗有望为超过4亿人口提供保护——防止100万人感染甲型脑膜炎、15万人因此惨死，以及避免出现25万严重残疾的幸存者。


The MVP stands as a powerful example of what is possible when African leaders and experts from across the spectrum of global health work together.	脑膜炎疫苗项目有力证明了非洲领袖和全球卫生专家合作将会产生什么样的效果。


Strong, temporary partnerships, with a focused goal, can have truly catalytic effects.	临时、强劲的伙伴关系，辅之以明确的目标，可以产生出真正的催化效果。


But the work is far from over.	但工作还远远没有结束。


Last year, the WHO approved MenAfriVac for use in regular vaccine schedules, making it possible for millions more to be protected.	去年，世卫组织批准MenAfriVac���为常规疫苗使用，从而可以继续为成百上千万人提供保护。


The stakes are high.	这当中牵涉的利益非常重要。


Universal access to immunization is a cornerstone of health, development, and economic growth.	普遍实现免疫接种是健康、发展和经济增长的基础。


Recognizing this, several African countries are already making plans to roll out meningitis – and other – vaccines into routine immunization systems this year.	认识到这一点，若干非洲国家已经在制定计划以期年内将脑膜炎——和其他——疫苗纳入到常规免疫系统。


The task before African leaders is to ensure a smooth and full transition from mass vaccination campaigns to routine immunization.	非洲领导人所面临的任务是确保实现从大规模疫苗接种运动到常规免疫接种的顺利及全面的过渡。


Last week, government officials assembled in Ethiopia for the first-ever Ministerial Conference on Immunization in Africa, where they re-committed to ensuring that everyone on the continent has access to the vaccines they need.	上周，政府官员齐聚埃塞俄比亚召开有史以来首届非洲免疫工作部长级会议，并在会上再次承诺确保非洲大陆所有人都能接种到所需疫苗。


This will require further investment in immunization, improved data collection and analytics, new tools and approaches, and most importantly, strong partnerships.	这需要对免疫接种工作、改进数据收集和分析方法以及新工具和新方法展开进一步的投资，而且最重要的是，需要建立强有力的伙伴关系来支持这项工作。


We must build on the legacy of the MVP and work toward a world in which every child receives the life-saving vaccines they need to survive and thrive.	我们必须继承脑膜炎疫苗项目的传统，努力实现让每个孩子都能注射其生存和发展所需的挽救生命的疫苗。


Mengele in America	美国的死亡天使


LONDON – It’s 1946. On one side of the Atlantic, American lawyers are prosecuting Nazi doctors at Nuremberg for crimes against humanity – so-called “research” carried out on concentration camp prisoners.	发自伦敦——当时是1946年，在大西洋这一侧，美国律师团正在纽伦堡以反人类罪起诉纳粹医生——针对这些人对集中营里犯人进行的所谓“研究”。


On the other side of the Atlantic, in Guatemala, the United States Public Health Service (PHS) is deliberately infecting prisoners and mental patients with syphilis in another “experiment” aimed at replacing the ineffective drugs used by soldiers during the war that had just ended.	而在大西洋另一侧的危地马拉，美国公共卫生署也在进行一项“实验”，他们故意令囚犯和精神病人感染梅毒，以寻找一种新的药物来替代战士们在刚刚结束的那场大战中使用过的无效药物。


It sounds too perverse to be true.	这事听起来似乎过于荒谬。


Yet a special commission appointed by President Barack Obama has just confirmed that the Guatemalan experiments really did take place.	然而，一个由奥巴马总统任命的特别委员会却刚刚证实了危地马拉实验的存在。


Obama has also issued an apology to the people of Guatemala.	同时奥巴马也为此向危地马拉人民致歉。


But why did it take so long to get to this point?	但为何要在如此之久后才有上述行动呢？


Sixty-three years after the Guatemalan experiments, an American historian, Susan Reverby, was rummaging through archived medical papers from the 1940’s.	在危地马拉实验发生63年后的2009年，一位名叫苏珊·里伟尔比的美国历史学家翻查了自1940年以来的医学论文档案。


Reverby was completing a final task in her two decades of studying the PHS’s detestable Tuskegee experiments, in which hundreds of African-American men with late-stage syphilis were observed but not treated, even after penicillin was developed.	当时她所从事的一项历时20年，关于臭名昭著的美国公共卫生署塔斯基吉实验的研究已近尾声——那场实验对患有晚期梅毒的数百名非洲裔美国男性进行医学观察，却任由其病情恶化却不给予相应的治疗，甚至在盘尼西林出现以后也不予施救。


She was examining the papers of Thomas Parran, US surgeon-general from 1936-1948, when the Tuskegee research was already in full swing. So, too, she found, was the previously unknown Guatemalan experiment.	她翻看了托马斯·佩伦的一些论文——此人曾于塔斯基吉实验大肆进行的1936年-1948年担任美国公共卫生署主管——并发现了此前一直不为人知的危地马拉实验。


For years, Tuskegee has been a byword for ethical abuses in scientific research – to the extent that President Bill Clinton apologized to its surviving “subjects.”	多年以来，塔斯基吉实验早已成为科学领域道德沦丧的代名词，以致前总统比尔·克林顿都要向尚在人世的“研究对象”道歉。


Hard as it may be to believe, as Reverby was to discover, the abuse in Guatemala was even more egregious.	但难以置信的是，危地马拉实验对病人的虐待竟更加令人发指。


As Reverby put it, “I’d spent nearly two decades explaining that there had been no inoculation at Tuskegee, that while the PHS had used deplorable ethics, they had never infected anyone with syphilis.” That was not true in Guatemala.	正如里伟尔比所说“我花了将近二十年时间证明美国公共卫生署虽然道德败坏，但至少不还不至于向任何人接种梅毒病毒。


There, “the US government’s health service had deliberately infected 427 Guatemalan men and women, prisoners and mental patients, with syphilis.”	”但在危地马拉这一幕却发生了，“美国公共卫生署的医生故意向427名危地马拉男女，囚犯和精神病人接种了梅毒病毒。 ”


The US prosecutors at Nuremberg didn’t know about the Guatemala experiments, so there’s no allegation of deliberate hypocrisy.	在纽伦堡的美国律师团并不知道这场实验，因此也不能说他们是有意执行双重标准。


But the case is no less troubling for that.	但问题仍然存在。


How could the public-health authorities override medicine’s basic ethical rule – “First do no harm”?	公共卫生机构怎能践踏医学的基本伦理原则——“首先，不能对病人造成伤害”。


Why was informed consent from the research “subjects” considered unnecessary?	为什么“研究对象”的知情同意被认为是多此一举，无关紧要呢？


Could such a thing happen again?	类似事情还会发生吗？


Most experts believe that the answer to the last question is no – at least not in the same form.	大部分专家对最后一个问题的回答都是否定的——至少不会以相同的形式重演。


In fact, one should view the Guatemalan study, with its incontrovertible horrors, as an extreme example of the biggest ethical problems in research today.	但实际上，人们应该把危地马拉研究——及其造成的难以名状的恐怖——作为当今医学研究中最重大伦理问题的一个极端例子来对待。


Now, as then, richer developed countries are able to put pressure on weaker, poorer ones.	因为现在其实与过去一样，发达国家依然有能力对弱小国家为所欲为。


A report in 2010 revealed that foreign citizens made up more than three-quarters of all the subjects in clinical trials conducted by US firms and researchers.	2010年公布的一份报告显示，在美国公司和研究人员所进行的医学实验中有超过3/4的实验对象是外国公民。


The US Food and Drug Administration inspected only 45 of these sites, about 0.7%.	美国食品药品监督局仅检查了这些研究机构中的45所，约占总量的0.


There is no suggestion that Third World patients are deliberately being made ill when research is outsourced – unlike in the Guatemalan case – but that does not attenuate the inherent vulnerability of populations lacking basic medical care or experiencing epidemics.	7%。 在研究外包的情况下，目前还没有证据证明第三世界的人民因实验需要而被蓄意接种疾病——这点与危地马拉事件不同——但也并没有缓解这些人因此缺少缺医少药或疾病流行而产生的内在脆弱性。


During a major meningitis epidemic in northern Nigeria in 1996, the drug company Pfizer supplied doctors with the oral antibiotic Trovan, which the firm wanted to test against the most effective known drug, Ceftriaxone, as a “control.”	1996年，在尼日利亚北部爆发大规模脑膜炎时，辉瑞公司在向当地医生提供口服抗生素特洛芬的同时把服用头孢曲松的病人设为“控制组”，藉此将测试特洛芬与当前最有效药物进行对比。


This procedure is consistent with the general consensus in research ethics that the control group must receive the best-known treatment for comparison.	这个操作是符合医学研究的一般伦理要求的，即在进行对比测试时，控制组必须受到最好的治疗。


The Trovan trial nonetheless caused a storm of controversy, for two reasons.	然而，出于两方面的原因，特洛芬实验还是引起了激烈的争论。


First, even if the trials proved favorable, Trovan was never intended for sale in Africa, but rather for the US and European markets.	第一，即便特洛芬在这些实验中更有疗效，但这种药只是为了满足美国和欧洲市场的需求，永远不会在非洲销售。


Second, the sparsely staffed clinical teams were already facing measles and cholera epidemics as well.	第二，那些人员配备不足的医疗小组自身也面临着麻疹和霍乱的侵袭。


As Jean Hervé Bradol, who was president of Médecins sans Frontières at the time and led its African teams, put it: “It was not a time for a drug trial at all.	时任无国界医生组织总裁以及非洲小组领队的让·埃尔维·布拉多曾指出“那时根本不是进行药物测试的适当时候。


They were panicking in the hospital, overrun by cases on the verge of dying.	医院挤满了重病患者，工作人员都十分惊慌。


The team were shocked that Pfizer continued the so-called scientific work in the middle of hell.”	医疗队得知辉瑞在这种犹如炼狱般的情况下还继续其所谓的科研工作，都很震惊。 。


Nowadays, another major controversy has erupted in several Indian states, owing to a research project to vaccinate girls against cervical cancer – an issue that has now entered the US presidential campaign, because Texas’s governor, Rick Perry, now seeking the Republican presidential nomination, backed a similar mandatory program.	最近一个给女孩注射疫苗防治子宫颈癌的研究项目也在印度几个州激起了极大争论——如今这一争论也成为了美国总统竞选的议题之一，因为竞逐共和党总统提名人的德克萨斯州州长里克·佩里也支持类似的一个强制疫苗项目。


While preventing cervical cancer might seem a genuine benefit, critics charge that the program seems to be mainly about meeting targets, rather than serving the health-care needs of disadvantaged groups.	尽管消除子宫颈癌看似是为大众谋福祉，批评家们却指出这个项目看上去只是为了满足政治目的，而不是为了满足潜在患者的健康需要。


Apart from one recommendation – to create a government compensation program for Third World nationals harmed by trials intended to benefit First World subjects – US Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues, chaired by Dr. Amy Gutmann, the president of the University of Pennsylvania, did not get much beyond vague notions of community engagement and transparency.	除了建议为第三世界国家建立一个政府基金项目，补偿他们为服务第一世界人们而进行的实验而受到的伤害之外，由宾夕法尼亚大学校长艾美·古德曼博士主持的美国总统生物伦理问题研究委员会在社区参与以及执行透明度等模糊概念上并没有多少收获。


But, with 70% of all drug trials now conducted by private companies, such concepts won’t go very far towards tougher regulation.	不过，考虑到目前70%的药物实验都是由私人机构执行的现实，这些概念也不会带来什么严厉的管制。


And why should government should pay the costs anyway?	再说，为什么政府要为此买单呢？


Because private companies reap the benefits of the trials that do succeed, they should also shoulder the risks.	既然私人公司从那些成功的实验中大发横财，自然也应当承担起相应的风险。


Last year at Davos, I helped launch a new Global Agenda Council on Mental Health, after a study by the World Economic Forum and Harvard School of Public Health projected that the global economic costs of mental illness over the next two decades would exceed the costs of cancer, diabetes, and respiratory ailments combined.	去年的达沃斯会议上，我本人参与推出了一项新全球议程理事会心理健康计划，因为世界经济论坛和哈佛大学公共卫生学院预测精神疾病未来二十年耗费的全球经济成本将超过癌症、糖尿病和呼吸系统疾病的总和。


In low-resource environments, local residents or family members can be trained to provide brief, effective psychotherapies that treat moderate forms of depression or anxiety.	���资源匮乏的环境下，可以训练当地居民或家庭成员提供针对轻度抑郁或焦虑的简单、有效的心理治疗。


In April, the United States National Institutes of Health introduced a ten-year BRAIN Initiative, joining similar efforts in the European Union, Israel, Japan, China, Australia, and Canada.	四月，美国国家卫生研究所推出了10年期脑病治疗计划，欧盟、以色列、日本、中国、澳大利亚和加拿大也采取了类似的举措。


In the United Kingdom, a new charity, MQ, is awarding funds for research on psychological treatments.	在英国，新慈善机构MQ正在为心理治疗研究提供资金援助。


The Promise of Bank Mergers	银行兼并的憧憬


BARCELONA – The banking business has fallen on hard times.	巴塞罗那—银行业务遭遇了艰难时世。


The combination of persistent low interest rates, increasing regulatory compliance costs, and the rise of new competitors taking advantage of financial technologies (fintech for short) has produced, in Europe in particular, excess capacity and low profitability – and a strong temptation to merge.	持续低利率、遵守监管成本的增加，以及具备金融技术的新竞争对手的崛起，它们的合力造成了产能过剩和盈利能力低下，以及强烈的兼并诱惑，尤其是在欧洲。


In a difficult market, mergers – by enabling banks to cut costs, share information-technology platforms, and increase market power, thereby relieving pressure on margins and rebuilding capital – make sense.	在艰难的市场中，兼并——它让银行削减成本、共享信息技术平台、增加市场力量，从而缓解利润率压力、重建资本——很有意义。


And the banks know it.	银行也知道这一点。


Witness the recent merger talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, both of which have faced huge declines in market capitalization.	眼下德意志银行和德国商业银行的兼并谈判就是明证，两者都遇到了市值的剧烈缩水。


So a wave of mergers may be on the way.	因此，一波兼并潮可能正在酝酿中。


The question is whether that approach really can solve banks’ problems and benefit society.	问题在于这一方法是否真的能够解决银行的问题并有利于社会。


To be sure, mergers and acquisitions are not always a matter of escaping trouble.	平心而论，兼并和收购未必是摆脱麻烦的万灵丹。


In fact, M&A activity – both the number and size of transactions – was picking up before the 2008 global financial crisis, including across borders within and beyond the eurozone.	事实上，并购活动——不管是数量还是交易规模——在2008年全球金融危机前十分活跃，包括欧元区内部和之外的跨境并购。


After peaking in 2007, such activity diminished, as domestic restructuring took precedence, particularly in countries such as Greece and Spain, which had to implement difficult adjustment programs.	2007攀上顶峰后，并购活动式微，国内重组成为当务之急，特别是在希腊和西班牙等国家不得不实施艰难的调整计划。


Moreover, the M&A approach does not always work.	此外，并购方法并不总是有效。


In October 2007, a consortium formed by the Royal Bank of Scotland, Fortis, and Banco Santander acquired ABN AMRO – the world’s biggest bank takeover to date.	2007年10月，由苏格兰皇家银行（RBS）、富通银行和西班牙国际银行（Banco Santander）收购了荷兰银行（ABN AMRO）——这是当时世界有史以来最大的银行收购案。


RBS and Fortis failed soon after and had to be rescued.	RBS和富通银行随后很快倒闭，不得不接受救助。


Nonetheless, supervisory bodies favor mergers to save banks in trouble.	尽管如此，监管机构仍然支持通过兼并拯救陷入麻烦的银行。


Competition authorities tend to be more reluctant, recognizing the danger that large-scale mergers can consolidate an anti-competitive market structure, while creating even more “too big to fail” banks that may cause financial instability in the future.	竞争管理当局的态度一般不太友好，认识到大规模兼并可能巩固不利于竞争的市场结构，同时也创造出更加“太大而不能倒”的银行，从而导致未来金融动荡。


But they are often overruled or compelled to acquiesce.	但它们往往饱受压制，或被迫默许。


The US Department of Justice agreed to the merger between Wells Fargo and Wachovia, among others, soon after the 2008 financial crisis, and the UK Office of Fair Trade was overruled in the merging of HBOS and Lloyds.	2008年金融危机后不久，美国司法部就同意了富国银行和美联银行的兼并和其他几宗兼并案，英国公平贸易办公室（UK Office of Fair Trade）反对苏格兰哈里法克斯银行（HBOS）和劳埃德集团（Lloyds）的立场也被压制。


Competition is not the only source of merger-related tension among authorities.	竞争不是当局之间与兼并有关的冲突的唯一源泉。


There is also friction between national supervisors, who prefer domestic mergers, and supranational supervisors, who prefer cross-border mergers within their jurisdiction (the eurozone, in the European Central Bank’s case).	另一个源泉是更偏好国内兼并的国家监管者与更偏好管辖区内跨境兼并的超国家监管者（如欧元区的欧洲央行）之间的摩擦。


The benefits of cross-border consolidation are that market power is diluted in a large market, and more diversification is obtained, though these gains come at the price of weakened cost synergies.	跨境整合的好处是市场力量将在更大的市场中被稀释，并获得了更多的多元化，尽管这些好处的代价是弱化了成本协同（cost synergies）。


From the banks’ perspective, cross-border mergers may potentially be the better option, as long as they occur within a single supervisory framework.	从银行角度，跨境兼并有可能是更好的选择，如果它们发生在一个监管框架中的话。


That way, they can benefit from common supervision and resolution.	这样一来，它们可以得益于共同的监督和解决方案。


The eurozone’s new supervisory framework, supervised by the ECB and possessing a common resolution authority, reflects this recognition of the benefits of cross-border mergers.	欧元区的新监督框架——由欧洲央行进行监督，并拥有共同解决方案权力——就体现了对跨境兼并的好处的这一认识。


But Europe lags when it comes to such mergers, owing to a broader lack of financial integration.	但在这类兼并方面，欧洲却落后了，这是因为缺乏范围更广的金融一体化。


Indeed, in the European Union, member countries’ own banks tend to be the dominant players in the domestic market – say, BNP Paribas in France or UniCredit in Italy.	事实上，在欧盟，成员国自身的银行一般都是国内市场的主导者——如法国的巴黎银行和意大利的联合信用银行（UniCredit）。


In the United States, by contrast, the same large banks – such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo – tend to dominate a large number of different states.	相反，在美国，同一批大银行——如美国银行、JP摩根大通和富国银行——一般在许多州都占据主导地位。


US banks have had more space to diversify.	美国银行的多元化空间更大。


For European banks – which must navigate vast differences in culture, language, and law in pursuing cross-border mergers – this has been much more difficult, especially because many of them also need to cut overcapacity drastically.	对欧洲银行来说——它们在追求跨境兼并时必须面对巨大的文化、语言和法律差异——这要困难得多，特别是因为它们中有许多还需要大量削减过剩产能。


As a result, in the near term, European banks are more likely to pursue domestic – or, at most, regional – consolidation.	结果，在近期，欧洲央行更可能追求国内整合，至多是地区整合。


For the United Kingdom, which voted in June to “Brexit” the EU, the situation is particularly complicated.	英国在6月份公投“脱欧”，它的情况尤其复杂。


The UK long benefited from an open policy on acquisitions by foreign banks, which allowed, for example, the Spanish Santander Group to bid for Britain’s Abbey National in 2001.	英国长期得益于对外资银行收购的开放政策，比如，2001年英国允许西班牙国际集团（Santander Group）出价收购英国阿比国民银行（Abbey National）。


But Brexit will probably move supervision of UK-based banks out of the EU framework, raising the cost of cross-border deals and implying a loss to British consumers.	但英国脱欧可能将英国银行的监督权转移到欧盟框架之外，提高跨境交易的成本，给英国消费者造成损失。


As the UK banking sector’s competitiveness suffers, the temptation to return to the kind of light-touch regulation that enabled the crisis in the first place could intensify.	随着英国银行部门竞争力因此下降，恢复当初导致危���的轻触式（light-touch）监管的诱惑可能增加。


As for the rest of Europe’s banks, now might be the time to consider the merger option.	至于其他欧洲银行，现在也许是考虑兼并选项的良机。


Mergers are no silver bullet, but they could help to alleviate serious problems relatively quickly – though, in the longer term, the banks would still have to tackle the legacy of heavy and rigid structures and rebuild their reputations, with a strong focus on consumer service and fairness.	兼并不是万灵丹，但它们有助于相对较快地缓和严重问题——尽管从长期看，银行仍然必须解决结构沉重和僵化的历史遗留问题并重塑信誉，其间需要强烈关注消费者服务和公平。


At the same time, if a merger strategy is to work for the good of society, competition must be preserved.	与此同时，兼并策略要想有利于社会，就必须保护竞争。


If incumbents simply continue to get larger, blocking new competitors from entering the market, they will end up facing intrusive regulatory compliance programs and higher capital requirements.	如果现有银行只是不断变得更大，阻止新竞争者进入市场，它们最终将面临干扰性监管合规措施和更高的资本要求。


New market entrants would have more flexibility and thus might be able to offer new, more appealing deals to customers.	新市场进入者将拥有更大的灵活性，从而可能向客户提供新的、更有吸引力的合同。


This is why bank supervision and competition policy must work in tandem to ensure a level playing field.	因此，银行监督和竞争政策必须携手共进以确保公平竞争。


On one hand, regulations must apply to all firms performing banking functions, including new fintech institutions.	一方面，监管必须适用于所有起银行功能的企业，包括新金融技术结构。


On the other hand, implicit subsidies to too-big-to-fail banks must be dropped.	另一方面，对太大而不能倒银行的暗补必须取消。


Bank mergers hold much promise, particularly in Europe.	银行兼并前途光明，特别是在欧洲。


To realize their potential will require the right policy mix, focused on consumer protection and fair competition.	要想实现兼并的潜力，需要正确的政策组合，以消费者保护和公平竞争为重点。


Europe’s banks and banking authorities will need to step up their game.	欧洲银行和银行当局需要营造一个好局。


The Great Leader Revival	伟大领袖的复兴


LONDON – Two hundred years have passed since the battle of Waterloo, where Napoleon’s calamitous defeat made such a huge dent in his country’s self-image that General Charles de Gaulle, in his history of the French army, simply omitted it.	伦敦——滑铁卢战役已经过去两百年了，拿破仑在那场战役中的灾难性失败严重损害了法国的自尊，以至于戴高乐将军在书写法国军史时对此役只字不提。


Nonetheless, Napoleon, like de Gaulle, would both easily make it onto any list of history’s great leaders – assuming, of course, that one considers “greatness” to be an individual trait.	尽管如此，如果你承认“伟大”是某种个人特质，那么拿破仑和戴高乐都能称之为有史以来最伟大的领袖。


Marx and Tolstoy would say that there is no such thing as a “great leader.”	马克思和托尔斯泰会说根本不存在什么“伟大领袖”。


For Marx, the class struggle in France created the circumstances in which a “grotesque mediocrity” – that is, Napoleon – was morphed into a hero.	在马克思看来，法国的阶级斗争创造了拿破仑这样的“怪诞庸才”成为英雄的环境。


As far as Tolstoy was concerned, Napoleon was not a particularly good general, and was carried to victory by the courage and commitment of all of the individual French soldiers who won the Battle of Borodino.	在托尔斯泰看来，拿破仑算不上特别出色的将军，他的胜利应该归功于打赢波罗底诺战役的法国士兵的勇气和献身精神。


Whether or not Napoleon was great, the question remains whether any leader could merit that description.	无论拿破仑是否伟大，我们都要搞清能否用伟大来形容任何一位领导人。


And if so, who?	如果答案是肯定的，那么哪些人能用伟大来形容？


There seem to be two particularly important criteria for great leadership, both noted by the political philosopher Isaiah Berlin.	政治哲学家以赛亚·柏林认为伟大领袖必须符合两项特别重要的标准。 首先，这位领袖能否认清历史趋势？


First, does the leader recognize which way the winds of history are blowing?	奥托·冯·俾斯麦做到了，还有他的德国同胞康拉德·阿登纳；


Otto von Bismarck did, as did his fellow German Konrad Adenauer; both, in Bismarck’s memorable phrase, could hear “the rustle of God’s cloak.”	借用俾斯麦令人难忘的说法，两者都听到了“上帝斗篷沙沙的响声。 ”


Second, does a leader have important choices to make?	其次，这位领袖是否做出了重要决定？


Of course, if decisions are forced upon a leader, he or she cannot really be credited with (or blamed for) them.	当然，如果领导人被迫作出决策，他或她既不能因此获咎，也不能因此居功。


So the key is that the leader has the opportunity to consider alternatives, and choose the right one for his or her country.	因此关键在于领导人是否有机会权衡利弊，并代表国家做出正确的决定。


This is why de Gaulle is almost certain to be on any list of great leaders.	戴高乐因此理应在任何伟大领袖排行榜上榜上有名。


Almost single-handedly, he rescued France from the relegation zone after World War II.	几乎凭借一己之力，他将法国带出了二战后的降级区。


After returning to power in 1958, he rescued his country a second time, putting down two attempted coups, ending the war in Algeria, and inspiring the Fifth Republic’s constitution.	1958年重新掌权后，他再次挽救了自己的国家，镇压了两次未遂政变，结束了阿尔及利亚战争，并制定了第五共和国宪法。


Much like British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, de Gaulle gave the French a new worldview that established their place in the post-war global order.	与英国首相温斯顿·丘吉尔类似，戴高乐赋予法国人新的世界观，奠定了他们在战后全球秩序中的地位。


In fact, the worldviews that de Gaulle and Churchill established for their countries turned out to be a little too influential.	事实上，戴高乐和丘吉尔确立本国世界观的最终影响都有些过大。


Their successors continued to perceive the world – and their countries’ role in it – in ways that constrained rational discussion and distorted decision-making for years.	他们的继任者多年后仍以制约理性探讨和扭曲决策的方式来看待世界——以及本国所发挥的作用。


As a result, no subsequent leader of either country has matched them.	结果是两国之后的领导人再也未能取得能与两位伟大领袖媲美的成就。


But there is one other British prime minister who may come close: Margaret Thatcher, a highly contentious figure, who was loved by some and loathed by others.	但还有一位英国首相能与之媲美：她就是玛格丽特•撒切尔，一位非常有争议的人物，喜欢她的人和讨厌她的人一样多。


Even her resignation, 25 years ago this year, was spurred by a mutiny in her own cabinet and party.	就连她25年前的辞职都源于其自身内阁和党派的反抗活动。


But one does not need to be universally liked – or even likable – to be a great leader.	但并不需要得到所有人的欢心才能成为伟大的领袖。


And the fact is that not even Thatcher’s detractors can deny her impact.	事实上，就连撒切尔的批评者都无法否认她的影响。


Beyond being the first woman prime minister in Britain, and among the first anywhere, Thatcher helped to reverse Britain’s economic decline.	除了担任英国首任女首相，差不多也是世界其他国家最早的女首相，撒切尔协助扭转了英国的经济衰退。


Her assault on excessively powerful trade unions, moreover, made Britain governable, at a time when the country seemed to be slipping into drift and disorder.	不仅如此，她针对过于强大的工会发起的进攻在国家看似滑入动荡和混乱的时刻增强了它的可管理性。


Given this, she is certainly a candidate for “great leader” status.	有鉴于此，她无疑有权成为“伟大领袖”的候选人。


Similarly, China’s Deng Xiaoping may qualify as a great leader, despite having a record that is far from squeaky clean.	同样，虽然远非无懈可击，但中国的邓小平也有资格成为伟大的领袖。


Beyond undertaking dark deeds as one of Mao’s lieutenants, Deng played a decisive role in ordering the massacre in Tiananmen Square in 1989.	除协助毛泽东作恶外，邓还在下令进行1989年天安门屠杀时发挥了决定性的作用。


But Deng also unleashed the market, setting the country on the path toward unprecedented growth and prosperity that ultimately lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty.	但邓同时搞活了市场，让中国走上了最终令亿万中国人摆脱贫困的前所未有的发展和繁荣之路。


Many would regard Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founder and longtime prime minister, as great, though he probably would have welcomed the opportunity to test his mettle in a larger arena.	很多人都认为新加坡创始人和长久以来的首相李光耀非常伟大，虽然他可能希望在更大的舞台上一展身手。


And, in fact, it seems that size does affect one’s ability to secure great-leader status.	事实上，国家大小似乎并不影响一个人成为伟大领袖。


I mean no insult to the House of Luxembourg when I say that it is unlikely that a great leader will emerge from that tiny country, especially given its generally uncontentious politics.	我说卢森堡那样小的国家不太可能产生伟大领袖时绝没有任何侮辱之意，尤其是该国的政治氛围总体争议不大。


The United States is certainly big enough to produce great leaders.	美国幅员辽阔，足以作为伟大领袖的诞生之所。


And some presidents have indeed done great things.	有些总统也确实颇有成就。


Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower – no intellectual giants, to be sure – showed excellent judgment as they established the post-war international order that has supported peace in much of the world for decades.	哈里·杜鲁门和德怀特·艾森豪威尔——虽然谈不上思想巨人——但在建立数十年支撑世界和平的战后国际秩序时展现出了卓越的判断力。


Others, including Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, have had great gifts – say, the ability to inspire or a talent for persuasion.	其他人，包括罗纳德·里根和比尔·克林顿，拥有极高的天赋——即鼓动能力和说服的艺术。


John F. Kennedy was a little of both.	约翰·F·肯尼迪可谓兼有所长。


He did one great thing: resolving the Cuban Missile Crisis.	他完成了一项伟大任务：化解古巴导弹危机。


And his gift for motivating people was unmatched; indeed, it outlasted him, with his assassination cementing a powerful legacy.	他鼓舞人的天赋无与伦比； 事实上，在他死后，他的暗杀巩固了他所留下的传统。


In Africa, there has been no great figure since the death of South African President Nelson Mandela, who combined courage, authority, and magnanimity in graceful abundance.	在南非，南非总统曼德拉死后还没有人称得上伟大人物，曼德拉集勇气、权威和优雅的宽宏大度于一身。


In fact, he is among the most charismatic and charming leaders I have met; the other two – former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and former US Secretary of State Colin Powell – also are either African or African-American.	事实上，他是我见到过最具魅力的迷人领袖； 另外两位——前联合国秘书长科菲·安南和前美国国务卿柯林·鲍威尔——不是非洲人就是非洲裔美国人。


And what of today?	那么今天呢？


The only contemporary European who can lay claim to the mantle of greatness is German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the European Union’s de facto leader.	唯一一个有资格自称伟大的是欧盟的事实领导人，德国总理安吉拉·默克尔。


Like former Chancellor Helmut Kohl, she tends to be underestimated at first, but gets the big decisions right.	像前总理赫尔穆特·科尔一样，她���开始时往往被低估，但做重要决定时却鲜有差错。


Kohl delivered generous terms for German reunification; Merkel has stood up to Russian President Vladimir Putin on his interventionism in Ukraine, and she has taken a generous approach to the migration crisis.	科尔制定了德国统一的慷慨条款； 默克尔在普京入侵乌克兰时对抗普京，并对移民危机采取了宽容的态度。


Marx and Tolstoy were, I believe, wrong.	我认为马克思和托尔斯泰是错的。


Political leadership – and the men and women who exercise it – can make a real difference, for better or worse.	政治领袖——政治权力的行使者——可以改变局势，无论变得更好还是更糟。


Merkel is today’s leading example of that, as she provides the direction Europe needs to tackle the challenging existential crisis that it faces.	默克尔是今天最明显的例子，她为欧洲应对高难度的生存危机指明了方向。


Merkel in China	默克尔在中国


NEW DELHI – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s second visit to China in a year comes against the backdrop of dire forecasts of a difficult September for the eurozone.	新德里—在人们忧心冲冲地预计欧元区将迎来艰难九月之际，德国总理默克尔将在一年内第二次访问中国。


Mindful of such concerns and persistent pessimism in global financial markets, Merkel is now taking bold political initiatives at home and overseas.	默克尔对这一担忧以及金融市场的持久悲观心知肚明，她正在国内外推出一系列大手笔政治计划。


Indeed, her China trip should be seen as an effort to assert leadership across the eurozone.	事实上，她的中国之旅应该被视为宣示欧元区领导人地位之举。


At home, Merkel recently sent out a clear message to her critics that Germany must pay a price for eurozone leadership.	在国内，默克尔最近向批评者放出了明确的信号——德国必须为欧元区领导者地位付出一定代价。


She cautioned her colleagues against loose talk about a “Grexit” – Greece’s exit from the eurozone – and assured visiting Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras that Germany remained committed to his country’s membership of the eurozone.	她提醒同僚们不要轻言“希腊退出”（欧元区），并向来访的希腊总理萨马拉斯保证德国将力保他的国家的欧元区成员国地位。


While it required courage to take such a tough stance, doing so helped to bolster her position at home and throughout the eurozone.	采取如此强硬立场需要勇气，但也有助于巩固她在国内和欧元区的地位。


There is now no doubt that Merkel is willing to commit Germany to the cause of preserving both the European Union and the eurozone, and that she will work to achieve that goal.	如今，毫无疑问默克尔愿意让德国承担起捍卫欧盟和欧元区的重任，她也将为这一目标鞠躬尽瘁。


If she succeeds, she will emerge as the first great European leader of the twenty-first century.	如果能够成功，她将成为21世纪第一位大欧洲领导人。


This stance suggests that Merkel appreciates the essence of the argument that François Heisbourg, the chairman of the council of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), advanced in a recent essay: a federal arrangement does not fall apart because of problems at the periphery but because of “failure at the heart of the system.”	这一立场表明默克尔赞成国际战略研究院（International Institute for Strategic Studies，IISS）委员会主席海斯伯格（François Heisbourg）在最近一篇文章中的观点：联邦安排崩溃的原因并不是外围出了问题，而是因为“体系中心的失灵”。


Merkel has come to terms with Germany’s position – and that it must act to preserve the unity of the whole.	默克尔已经就德国的地位问题让了步：德国必须行动起来保卫整个集体。


The eurozone (and probably the EU) cannot be saved in Greece or Finland if it cannot be saved in Germany.	如果德国救不了欧元区（或许还包括欧盟），那么希腊或芬兰更加不能。


Committing Germany to that objective is precisely what Merkel has defined as her political goal for the rest of her term in office.	让德国担起这一重任正是默克尔所定义的她在剩余任期的政治目标。


Within hours of declaring her leadership at home, Merkel announced her visit to Beijing.	在宣布了自己的欧元区领导者地位之后几小时，默克尔就宣布将访问北京。


The timing was highly significant: Merkel goes to China, the emerging global power, after declaring her own commitment to strengthening the eurozone, if not the EU as a whole, as a credible pole of an emerging multipolar world.	这样的时间安排意义重大：她宣布将担起巩固欧元区（如果不是欧盟的话）作为新兴多极世界一大可信极点的地位，随后便将访问新兴全球大国中国。


In recognition of Germany’s growing significance, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao welcomed a delegation of German business leaders to Beijing this May with the words: “Stronger Chinese-German cooperation is good for the two countries, good for China-EU relations, and good for world prosperity and stability.	中国总理温家宝深知德国日益提高的重要性，5月份，在欢迎德国商业领袖访问北京时，温家宝说：“进一步深化中德互利合作，不仅对两国发展有利，对中欧关系有利，对世界繁荣与稳定也有利。


The strategic dimension of Chinese-German relations, therefore, can only be strengthened, not weakened.”	中德关系的战略性只能加强，不能削弱。 ”


There are several dimensions to the bilateral relationship.	中德关系包括多个维度。


Germany needs both China’s markets and the funds that its government can deploy to purchase German and European bonds.	德国需要中国市场和中国政府资金购买德国和欧洲债券。


It also has more than 7,500 enterprises operating in China, with gross investment totaling $18.5 billion.	德国有7500多家企业在中国经营，总投资额超过185亿美元。


Moreover, Germany has sold $15 billion worth of technology to China, and bilateral trade hit a high of $169 billion in 2011, accounting for 30% of total China-EU trade.	此外，德国向中国出手了150亿美元的技术，2011年双边贸易更是超过了1690亿美元，占中欧贸易总量的30%。


The two countries have set a bilateral trade target of $280 billion for 2015.	到2015年，两国的双边贸易额目标将是2800亿美元。


Trade, however, is not the only immediate concern.	但是，贸易并非唯一的当务之急。


Far more important, especially for Germany, is to get China to invest in and hold its bonds.	比贸易重要得多的是（特别对德国而言）让中国投资并持有其债券。


In mid-August, at the First IISS Oberoi Lecture in Mumbai, Klaus Regling, the CEO of the European Financial Stability Facility, underscored the importance of Chinese demand for EFSF bonds and China’s role in stabilizing the eurozone.	8月中旬，在孟买举行的第一届IISS奥贝罗伊（Oberoi）演讲上，欧洲金融稳定机制（EFSF）CEO克劳斯·雷格林（Klaus Regling）强调，中国对EFSF债券的需求是中国在稳定欧元区中所扮演角色的重要组成部分。


Regling also revealed that there is now increased and frequent coordination between monetary authorities in the United States, Germany, and China, drawing attention to the fact that the “old Triad” of the dollar, euro, and yen may now have been replaced by a “new Triad” of the dollar, euro, and Chinese renminbi.	了格林还透露，美国、德国和中国的货币当局正在加紧合作，这使人们注意到，美元、欧元和日元的“老三角”可能已被美元、欧元和人民币的“新三角”取代。


While Regling spoke of an emerging “multipolar monetary system,” his remarks clearly indicated the functioning of a “tripolar” system.	雷格林嘴上说的是“多极货币体系”正在形成，但显然他意指的是一个“三极”体系。


Lying at two ends of that monetary triangle, the eurozone and China have acquired a geopolitical stake in helping each other.	欧元区和中国位于这一货币三角的两个底角上，存在彼此互助的地缘政治利益。


Hans Kundnani and Jonas Parello-Plesner of the European Council on Foreign Relations view the China-Germany relationship as one that will shape the overall China-EU relationship.	欧洲对外关系委员会的汉斯·昆达���（Hans Kundalini）和约纳斯·佩雷罗-普雷斯纳（Jonas Parello-Plesner）将中德关系视为能够决定中欧关系的重要关系。


Like many strategic analysts, they worry whether Germany, in pursuit of purely short-term economic interests, might forsake long-term strategic interests and concerns about human rights, environmental problems, press freedoms, and other political and geopolitical issues.	与其他策略分析师一样，他们担心德国是否会为了追求纯粹的短期经济利益而放弃长期战略利益以及对人权、环境问题、言论自由和其他政治和地缘政治问题的关注。


It is significant, therefore, that German political parties have emphasized the need for Merkel to raise such matters in her talks with Chinese leaders.	因此，德国各政党强调默克尔必须在与中国领导人的会谈中提出这些问题具有重大意义。


However, Merkel’s focus may well remain on trade, investment, and currency flows.	但是，默克尔的关注点可能仍集中在贸易、投资和货币流。


After all, unless she can turn around the eurozone, her rising profile at home and in Europe could easily wither.	毕竟，除非她能够让欧元区情况有所好转，否则她在国内和欧洲的美好形象很容易被破坏。


What this means is that to secure German leadership of Europe, and her own leadership of Germany, Merkel has to “walk on two legs,” so to speak.	这意味着什么呢？ 为了确保德国在欧洲的领导地位以及她自己在德国的领导地位，默克尔必须在会谈中“两手抓”。


She needs to balance both geo-economic and geopolitical factors – both interests and values – in advancing Germany’s relations with China.	再促进德国对中关系的过程中，她既要平衡地缘经济因素，也要平衡地缘政治因素，而这两者都涉及到利益和价值的权衡。


Mexico’s Powerful Energy Reforms	墨西哥能源改革得力


MEXICO CITY – Mexico is poised to become Latin America’s economic star in the coming decade.	墨西哥城—墨西哥在未来十年中很有希望成为拉丁美洲经济明星。


The government’s recent reform of the energy sector will contribute directly to economic performance by reducing the cost of manufacturing.	墨西哥政府最近对能源部门的改革将降低制造业成本，直接有利于经济表现。


In the context of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the resulting increase in manufacturing competitiveness promises to boost Mexico’s growth substantially.	在北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）框架下，由此带来的制造业竞争力提升有望大幅提振墨西哥经济增长。


Until the government adopted the necessary constitutional amendment and enacted the associated enabling legislation, Mexico’s energy sector was entirely state-owned.	在政府实施必须的宪法修正案和相关立法之前，墨西哥能源部门完全是国有性质。


The sector’s most important component, Pemex, owned all of Mexico’s oil and gas reserves, and was exclusively responsible for exploration, production, and retail distribution.	该部门最重要的组成部分——墨西哥石油公司（Pemex）拥有墨西哥全部油气储备，并独家全权负责勘探、生产和零售。


Electricity production and distribution, too, was entirely in the hands of the government.	发电和输电也完全控制在政府手中。


Pemex’s limited technical know-how meant that it could not fully develop and exploit Mexico’s vast oil and gas resources.	墨西哥石油公司技术水平平庸，这意味着它无法充分开发和利用墨西哥巨大的油气资源。


There are substantial oil reserves that require deep-water drilling technology that the company lacks.	墨西哥有很多石油储备需要墨石油所不具备的深水钻井技术。


There are also old wells that have stopped producing but that could be made productive again with modern technologies.	还有许多停产旧油井，若有现代技术可以实现复产。


And there are potential gas and oil fields that can be tapped only with the new technologies of fracking and horizontal drilling.	还有一些潜在油气田，只有运用致裂技术和水平钻井技术才能生产。


Until the reform, energy reserves had long been regarded as a national patrimony that could be developed only by Pemex.	在改革前，能源储备长期被视为国家遗产，只能由墨石油开发。


Because the constitution prohibited any direct or indirect foreign ownership, there was no way to provide incentives for foreign firms to share their technology.	由于宪法禁止外国人直接和间接拥有墨西哥油气资源，因此无法提供让外国企业分享技术的激励。


But that foreign technology offered such important potential gains that President Enrique Peña Nieto was able to marshal a majority in the Mexican congress to amend the constitution and pass legislation that will bring foreign energy firms to the country.	但外国技术能够提供重要的潜在收益，使得总统涅托能引导墨西哥国会多数同意修改宪法、通过能引入外国能源企业的立法。


Opening the energy sector completes the agenda of economic integration that began when NAFTA was approved in 1994.	开放能源部门完善了1994年批准NAFTA所开启的经济一体化日程。


That agreement transformed Mexico from a very closed economy with few manufacturing exports into an economy that is now closely linked with the United States.	NAFTA将墨西哥从及其封闭、只有极少量制造品出口的经济体转变为与美国紧密联系的经济体。


The expansion of Mexican oil and gas production will consolidate those links and contribute to North American energy independence.	墨西哥油气产量的扩张将巩固这一联系，并促进北美能源相互依存。


Mexico’s manufactured exports have increased tenfold since NAFTA began, with roughly 80% now going to the US.	自NAFTA启动以来，墨西哥制造业出口增长了十倍，如今80%的出口流向美国。


Many multinational US companies have located plants in Mexico as part of their overall production process, which is closely tied to inputs sourced domestically.	许多美国跨国公司在墨西哥设厂作为整体生产链的一部分，与国内投入品紧密相连。


Indeed, manufacturing relations between the US and Mexico are such that some 40% of the value added in Mexican exports to the US is actually of US origin.	事实上，美国和墨西哥的制造关系是如此紧密，40%的墨西哥对美国出口品增加值实际上源自美国。


The new energy reforms will also allow Mexico to benefit from lower-cost gas from Canada.	新能源改革还能让墨西哥受益于来自加拿大的低成本天然气。


The price of gas in the US and Canada is only about half the current price in Mexico (and less than half the price in Europe and Asia).	美国和加拿大天然气价格只有墨西哥当前价格水平的一半（低于欧洲和亚洲价格水平的一半）。


Mexican access to cheaper gas will boost Mexican petrochemical industries and lower energy costs for manufacturing.	墨西哥能获得廉价天然气，这将提振墨西哥石化行业，降低制造业能源成本。


Experts estimate that the cost of electricity to Mexican manufacturers could fall by as much as 20%.	专家估计墨西哥生产商用电成本可以下降20%。


Privatizing Pemex and the national electric company will also allow trained, professional managers to replace state bureaucrats and bring an end to trade unions’ current major role in the management process.	墨石油和国有电力公司私有化还能让受过训练的职业经理人取代国家官僚，结束当前工会在管理过程中扮演主角的情况。


Furthermore, privatization will remove the constraints on investment that the government budget has imposed on Pemex and the electric company.	此外，私有化能够消除政府预算对墨石油和电力公司投资的约束。


Even before the energy-sector reforms, Mexico had been pursuing sound macroeconomic policies for a considerable period of time.	在能源部门改革前，墨西哥追求可靠的宏观经济政策已经很长时间了。


As a result, the country has benefited from low inflation, small fiscal deficits, and manageable current-account deficits.	结果是墨西哥从低通胀、低财政赤字和可管理的经常项目赤字中大获裨益。


And, though Mexico operates a free-floating exchange-rate regime, the peso’s value against the dollar has been stable.	此外，尽管墨西哥采取自由浮动的汇率制度，但比索兑美元价值一直保持稳定。


None of this is to deny that Mexico still must confront other significant problems.	所有这些都不能否认墨西哥仍必须面临其他重大问题。


For example, primary and secondary education needs improvements that the teachers’ unions are blocking, and criminal activity, much of it drug-related, makes personal security a serious concern throughout the country.	比如，小学和中学教育需要改善但受教师工会的阻挠； 而犯罪活动（大多与毒品有关）导致整个墨西哥都存在巨大的人身安全隐患。


But, despite such problems, the energy and electricity reforms, and the deeper links with the US and Canada that they imply, promises to accelerate Mexico’s growth rate, boost employment and income, and thus raise Mexicans’ standard of living.	但是，尽管存在这些问题，能源和电力改革以及由此带来的与美国和加拿大关系的深化有利于加快墨西哥经济增长，提振就业和收入，从而提高墨西哥人民的生活水平。


Facing the Fourth Industrial Revolution	直面第四次工业革命


MEXICO CITY – The current era of innovation, in which cutting-edge technologies are disrupting entire economic sectors at a breathtaking rate, has been called the Fourth Industrial Revolution.	墨西哥城—眼下的创新时代，尖端科技正在以惊人的速度颠覆整个经济，我们称之为第四次工业革命。


It is also the theme of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting this week in Davos, Switzerland – and rightly so.	这也是本周在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛年会的主题——理应如此。


In the coming years, the scope and pace of innovation will transform how we produce, distribute, and consume.	在未来几年中，创新的规模和节奏将改变我们如何生产、分配和消费。


To maximize the benefits, we must take steps now to prepare our economies and societies, with a focus on three key areas: education, the business environment, and connectivity.	要实现收益最大化，我们必须现在就让经济和社会做好准备，注重于三大关键领域：教育、营商环境和连通性。


Human capital is vital to an economy’s success, and Mexico is no exception.	人力资本对于经济的成功至关重要。 墨西哥也不例外。


That is why my government is focusing so heavily on improving education at all levels.	正因如此，我的政府非常注重改善各层次教育水平。


For example, we recently launched “Education Infrastructure Notes,” private investment vehicles that will allow us to channel roughly $3 billion to improve elementary-school facilities within the next three years.	比如，我们最近启动了“教育基础设施记录”，这是一套私人投资载体，将在未来三年引导大约30亿美元用于改善小学设施。


In addition, during the current school year, we have delivered tablet computers to almost half of Mexico’s 2.3 million fifth-graders.	此外，在本学年，我们将为墨西哥230万五年级学生的近一半配备平板电脑。


We are also working to ensure that current and future generations gain the skills they will need to thrive in an evolving labor market.	我们还在致力于确保当前和未来几代学生获得必要的技能适应不断变化的劳动力市场。


Last year, more than 110,000 students in Mexico earned degrees in areas such as engineering, manufacturing, and construction – a higher figure than in some of the most developed countries, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.	去年，110,000多墨西哥学生获得工程、制造和建筑类学位——这一数字比法国、德国和英国等一些最发达国家还要多。


To reinforce this progress, we are also increasing public investment in science and technology at universities and public research centers throughout the country.	为了巩固这一进步，我们还在增加全国大学和公共研究中心科学和技术公共投资。


In the last three years alone, the number of scholars in our National Researchers System has increased by 26%, and we have almost doubled public expenditure on research, development, and innovation.	光是在过去三年，我们的国家研究员系统（National Researchers System）学者数量就增加了26%，研究、开发和创新方面的公共支出增加了近一倍。


Recognizing the vital importance of the linkages among government, industry, and academia, we have also increased the number of technology-transfer offices to support the development of new products and businesses in areas such as biotechnology, energy, and information technologies.	认识到政府、产业和学界间联系的关键重要性，我们还增加了科技转移机构数量以支持生物科技、能源和信息技术等领域新产品的开发和新企业的发展。


At the same time, we are working tirelessly to improve the business and investment environment.	与此同时，我们不遗余力地改善营商和投资环境。


For starters, we have made major strides toward macroeconomic stability.	首先，我们在宏观经济稳定方面取得了重大进步。


Our central bank has established an independent monetary policy that ensures price stability and low inflation; in fact, in November, the annual inflation rate, at 2.21%, was the lowest in Mexico’s history.	墨西哥中央银行拥有独立的货币政策决定权以保证物价稳定和低通胀； 事实上，11月墨西哥年通胀率为2.


And our debt remains low and diversified.	21%，是历史最低水平。 我们的债务水平较低并且多样化。


The debt-to-GDP ratio for 2015 is expected to stand at 46.9% – well below the Latin American average of 55.6% – and should stabilize at 47.8% in the coming year.	2015年债务-GDP之比预计将在46. 9%——远低于拉丁美洲平均水平55.


We have also pursued energy reform, which has lowered electricity costs, eliminated monthly increases in gasoline prices, and expanded gas pipelines throughout the country, thereby boosting competitiveness.	我们还实施了能源改革，调低了电力成本，取消了月度汽油涨价，并扩建了全国天然气管道，从而增强竞争力。


For the first time in decades, all energy-sector activities are open to private capital – a strategy that will attract an estimated $12.6 billion in investment every year.	几十年来第一次，能源业全行业向私人资本开放——预计这一战略每年可以吸引126亿美元投资。


Similarly, enabling foreign investment in the telecommunications sector has lowered prices for landline and cellular services, while improving quality and coverage.	类似地，在通讯业引入外国投资降低了固定电话和移动电话服务价格，还改善了质量和覆盖率。


Given that micro, small, and medium-size enterprises are the main drivers of Mexico’s economy, we are using digital tools to make it quicker and easier for entrepreneurs to start their own businesses, while facilitating their access to commercial bank funding.	中小微企业是墨西哥经济的主要引擎，因此我们使用数字工具让企业家更快更方便地创办自己的企业，同时帮助他们获得商业银行信用。


Our Young Credit Program gives entrepreneurs a loan of up to $9,000; for those seeking to consolidate an ongoing business, the total may be as much as $150,000.	我们的青年信用计划（Young Credit Program）给予创业者最多9,000美元贷款； 如果企业家寻求巩固已在经营的企业，贷款总量可以高达150,000美元。


The third key step to prepare our economy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution is connectivity.	让我们的经济做好面对第四次工业革命的第三个关键措施是连通性。


Mexico is one of the few countries that formally recognize the right of its people to a broadband Internet connection.	墨西哥是少数正式承认国民拥有宽带互联网连接权利的国家之一。


So far, we have established 65,000 public places, such as schools, libraries, and squares, with broadband connections.	目前，我们为65,000家公共场所（如学校、图书馆和广场）安装了宽带接入。


This will help us to reach our goal of providing high-speed Internet service to 70% of households and 85% of micro, small, and medium-size businesses.	这有助于我们实现为70%的家庭和85%的中小微企业提供高速互联网服务的目标。


But connectivity is not only digital; physical infrastructure is also vital.	但连通性不仅仅是在数字方面，实体基础设施也十分关键。


Already, Mexico is a manufacturing powerhouse and one of the world’s top sellers of goods like television sets, vehicles, auto parts, computers, and mobile phones.	如今，墨西哥已是制造业强国，也是电视机、汽车、汽车部件、计算机和移动电话的世界顶级销售国。


Improved infrastructure would enable us to boost the value and variety of our export-oriented industries.	基础设施的改善将提高我们出口导向型行业的价值和丰富程度。


That is why we are channeling more than $460 billion toward building and modernizing thousands of kilometers of roads and highways, as well as expanding and improving our mass transit and railway systems.	因此，我们正在耗资4,600多亿美元用于建设和现代化数千公里公路和高速公路，以及扩张和改善我们的公共运输和铁路系统。


Other large-scale infrastructure projects include a new international airport in Mexico City and seaport development that will almost double existing capacity on the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.	其他大规模基础设施工程包括墨西哥城新国际机场和可以将太平洋和墨西哥湾吞吐量扩大近一倍的港口。


In the long run, we will make Mexico a world-class logistics platform.	在长期，我们将把墨西哥打造成世界级物流平台。


Finally, Mexico is committed to continue boosting foreign trade, a powerful growth engine.	最后，墨西哥致力于继续提高对外贸易，这也是强大的增长引擎。


Over the last three years, we have expanded our network of free-trade agreements to include the Pacific Alliance and, more recently, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.	在过去三年中，我们扩大了我们与太平洋联盟（Pacific Alliance）的自由贸易协定网络，最近还加入了跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（TPP）。


That will make a total of 13 free-trade agreements, providing preferential access to 52 countries with 1.3 billion potential consumers.	这意味着总共13项自由贸易协定，提供52个国家、13亿潜在消费者的最惠国准入。


Our government has already made critical decisions to prepare Mexico’s economy for what lies ahead – and is backing them up with concrete action.	我们的政府做出了关键决策，让墨西哥经济做好向前的准备——并以实际行动支持这些决策。


We must build on this progress to address outstanding challenges, including rising demand for a wide range of specialized knowledge professionals and an urgent need to improve connectivity, especially in remote rural areas (where 9% of Mexico’s population lives).	我们必须在这一进步的基础上解决突出的挑战，包括不断增加的对各专业职业人士的需求以及改善连通性（特别是占墨西哥人口9%的偏远农村地区）的紧迫需求。


We must give our citizens and businesses the tools they need to take advantage of the opportunities that the Fourth Industrial Revolution creates, and ensure that future generations, too, can reach their full potential in a rapidly changing world.	我们必须向墨西哥人民和企业提供需要的工具抓住第四次工业革命所创造的机会，并确保子孙后代也可以在快速变化的世界中充分实现潜力。


Mexico’s Growth Problem	墨西哥的增长问题


PRINCETON – When Mexico’s then-President Carlos Salinas de Gortari and his American counterpart, Bill Clinton, signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) more than 20 years ago, the hope was that the Mexican economy would be swept forward by a rising wave of globalization.	普林斯顿—20多年前，当时任墨西哥总统卡洛斯（Carlos Salinas de Gortari）和时任美国总统克林顿（Bill Clinton）签署北美自由贸易协定（North American Free Trade Agreement，NAFTA）时，人们寄希望墨西哥经济能够乘全球化的东风一飞冲天。


By many measures, that hope has been amply fulfilled.	从许多指标看，这一希望可以说已经实现。


Mexico’s foreign-trade volume (exports plus imports) climbed steadily after NAFTA entered into force, roughly doubling, to more than 60% of GDP.	NAFTA生效后，墨西哥对外贸易量（出口加进口）稳步攀升，现已接近翻番，达到GDP的60%以上。


Net foreign investment inflows relative to GDP tripled.	净外国投资流入/GDP之比翻了三倍。


Though Mexico is an oil exporter, its manufactured exports have led the way, as the economy has become ever more tightly integrated into North American supply chains.	尽管墨西哥是石油出口国，但随着墨西哥经济日益紧密地融入了北美供给链，引领潮流的仍是制造业出口。


The automotive and steel industries, once inefficient and kept alive by protectionist trade barriers, are now highly productive and thriving.	曾经效率低下、只能依靠保护主义贸易壁垒苟延残喘的汽车和钢铁业现已成为高生产率的繁荣行业。


Like so many other countries, Mexico was initially hit hard by Chinese competition in global markets, particularly after China became a member of the World Trade Organization at the end of 2001.	和其他许多国家一样，墨西哥一开始也因为在全球市场中遭遇中国的竞争而受到重创，特别是2001年底中国加入世贸组织之后。


Nonetheless, Mexico’s proximity to the US market and its conservative monetary, fiscal, and labor-market policies have provided significant protection.	尽管如此，墨西哥凭借毗邻美国市场的地理优势和保守的货币、财政和劳动力市场政策获得了很大的保护。


Dollar wages, moreover, have grown much more slowly than in China; As a result, labor is now some 20% cheaper in Mexico in relative terms.	此外，墨西哥美元工资增长速度慢于中国； 因此，如今墨西哥相对劳动力成本比中国低20%。


Taking productivity trends into account, unit labor costs have also risen less than in China and other major competitors, allowing Mexico to recover since the mid-2000s some of the market share it had previously lost.	如若考虑生产率趋势，单位劳动力成本增长也比中国和其他主要竞争对手缓慢，这使得墨西哥在2005年后夺回了此前失去的一些市场份额。


The gains have come not only on the external front.	进步不仅只局限于外贸部门。


Remarkably, Mexico’s exceedingly high levels of inequality have begun to fall since 1994, thanks in large part to reforms in social policy and educational improvements.	令人瞩目的是，墨西哥畸高的不平等程度从1994年开始下降，这在很大程度上要归功于社会政策改革和教育进步。


Mexico’s success shows up everywhere, except where it counts the most over the long term: overall productivity and economic growth.	墨西哥的成功可谓遍地开花，除了长期而言最重要的地方：总体生产率和经济增长。


In both areas, there has been disappointment galore.	在这两个方面，墨西哥表现令人失望。


Incredible as it may seem, average growth in total factor productivity (TFP) – a measure of the efficiency with which the economy’s resources, human and physical, are used – has been negative since the early 1990s.	你也许会感到难以置信，自20世纪90年代初以来，全要素生产率（TFP）——衡量经济对人力和实物资本使用效率的指标——平均增长率为负值。


As a result, living standards in Mexico have fallen further behind the US and most emerging-market economies.	因此，墨西哥生活水平落后于美国和大部分新兴市场经济体。


Probably no other country in the world presents a starker contrast between external success and domestic failure.	也许世界上再无另一个国家具有如此鲜明的外部成功和内部失败的反差。


What lies behind the apparent paradox is the phenomenon of “the two Mexicos,” the McKinsey Global Institute’s evocative term for the extreme dualism that characterizes Mexico’s economy.	这一突出的悖论背后是“双面墨西哥”现象。 “双面墨西哥”是麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）发明的词汇，形容墨西哥经济的极端两面性。


Large firms, oriented toward the global economy, have done quite well, whereas traditional, informal firms – exemplified by the ubiquitous neighborhood tortillerías – have performed poorly while continuing to absorb the bulk of the economy’s work force.	面向全球经济的大企业表现十分出色，而传统非正式企业——以独一无二的社区墨西哥饼店（tortillerías）为代表——表现低迷，但仍吸收了大部分劳动力。


The successes of the former have been nullified by the drag exerted by the latter.	前者的成功因为后者的拖累而暗淡无光。


But excitement about Mexico’s prospects is on the rise.	但人们仍对墨西哥的前景乐观不已。


President Enrique Peña Nieto has launched a new wave of reforms, spearheaded by liberalization of the energy sector, which will allow foreign investment in oil exploration and production.	总统涅托启动了一系列新改革，最显眼的是能源部门自由化改革，外国投资者将被允许投资于墨西哥石油勘探和生产。


The state-owned oil company Pemex, a monopoly for three-quarters of a century, will finally face domestic competition.	拥有七十五年垄断地位的国有石油公司墨石油（Pemex）终于要面临国内挑战了。


Even an observer as sober as Harvard University’s Martin Feldstein gushes about Mexico, declaring that Peña’s reforms position the country to become “Latin America’s economic star in the coming decade.”	就连冷静如哈佛大学的马丁·费尔德斯坦（Martin Feldstein）���观察者也不禁为墨西哥叫好，表示涅托的改革将让这个国家成为“未来十年拉丁美洲经济明星。 ”


Yet Mexico’s NAFTA experience should make us extremely cautious about such prognostications.	但从墨西哥的NAFTA经验看，我们应该非常谨慎地对待这样的预测。


We have seen even more comprehensive reforms falter.	我们曾目睹过更加全面的改革以失败告终。


Will the energy reforms produce another false dawn?	能源改革会再一次只是昙花一现吗？


Policymakers need to bear in mind two lessons from Mexico’s frustrating encounter with globalization to date.	决策者需要注意墨西哥在全球化时期中的两次挫折的教训。


First, external trade and foreign investment on their own cannot lift an economy in the absence of the simultaneous development of productive capabilities at home.	首先，没有国内发展和生产能力，光靠对外贸易和外国投资本身是无法支撑经济的。


The reason that East Asia’s export superpowers – Japan, South Korea, and China – experienced growth miracles was that their governments worked on both fronts at once.	东亚出口强国——日本、韩国和中国——之所以能够产生增长奇迹，是因为它们的政府能做到内外兼顾。


Yes, they pushed their firms toward global markets.	是的，它们将本国企业推向全球市场。


But they also engaged in a broad range of industrial policies to ensure that these firms were growing and diversifying into new product lines.	但它们也采取了广泛的产业政策以确保这些企业的增长和向新生产线进军。


In fact, domestic producers were often protected from foreign competition at home to ensure that they remained profitable enough to undertake the requisite investments.	事实上，国内生产商常常能够在国内获得保护免受外国竞争，以确保它们有足够的盈利进行必要的投资。


Countries like Mexico can no longer revert to import protection.	像墨西哥这样的国家已无法回归进口保护。


So they will have to experiment with alternative strategies of support for domestic enterprises.	因此它们不得不尝试其他战略以支持国内企业。


The second lesson is the need for pragmatism in policy design.	第二个教训是政策设计需要务实。


For too long, Mexico’s economic policies have reflected the view that the real economy will take care of itself once the “fundamentals” (macroeconomic stability, openness, and basic regulations) are in place.	在太长的时间里，墨西哥经济政策所体现的思想是，只要“基本面”（宏观经济稳定性、开放性和基本监管）无恙，实体经济就能自己照顾好自己。


In the words of the Mexican economist Enrique Dussel Peters, this is the “macroeconomist” mindset , which is very different from the problem-solving “engineer” mindset that has traditionally characterized Asian policymaking.	用墨西哥经济学家恩里克·杜塞尔·彼得斯（Enrique Dussel Peters）的话说，这是“宏观经济学家”思维，与作为亚洲决策特征的解决问题的“工程师”思维大相径庭。


Mexican officials will need to develop a broader dialogue and partnership with the private sector in order to diagnose and remove the sector-specific obstacles faced by domestic firms.	墨西哥官员需要与私人部门进行更广泛的对话和合作，以诊断和去除国内企业所面临的具体的部门壁垒。


Such collaboration is especially important for the medium-size firms at the cusp of breaking into the big leagues.	这样的合作对于站在蜕变为大企业的门槛上的中型企业来说尤其重要。


They will need to act less like “macroeconomists” and more like “engineers.”	他们需要减少“宏观经济学家”特征，增加“工程师”特征。


Mexico’s failure to grow remains a puzzle, for which there is no simple explanation.	墨西哥的增长失败仍然是个谜，不是三言两语能够回答的。


It is unlikely that a single grand strategy – whether it is opening up the oil sector, improving access to finance, fighting informality, or, for that matter, altering industrial policy – can unlock the gates to rapid, broad-based growth.	想要依靠单一的大战略——不管是开放石油部门、改善融资难、治理地下经济还是改变产业政策——开启高速广泛增长的大门是不可能的。


This uncertainty underscores the need for an agile, responsive government that can move on diverse fronts simultaneously, learn about the problems confronting the real economy, and respond pragmatically.	不确定性决定了墨西哥需要灵活的快速反应政府，这样才能在多条战线上齐头并进，认识实体经济的问题并务实地做出反应。


Mexico is Burning	墨西哥在燃烧


MEXICO CITY – The last time Mexico experienced a political crisis more serious than the one it is undergoing today was in 1994, when a group of so-called Zapatista guerrillas staged a semi-armed uprising in the southern state of Chiapas.	墨西哥城——上次墨西哥上演一场比现在更严重的政治危机还是在1994年，当时一伙所谓的萨帕塔游击队在墨西哥南部的恰帕斯州发动了一次半武装起义。


The president’s handpicked successor was assassinated, and, as if that was not enough, the value of the peso had plummeted by nearly 70%.	不仅总统亲自挑选的继任者被暗杀，而且比索价值也暴跌了近70%。


Today’s crisis is not quite as bad, but it is getting close.	目前这次危机虽然还没演变到如此地步，但也正在逐步靠近。


In December 2012, President Enrique Peña Nieto took office under inauspicious circumstances.	两年前，总统恩里克·培尼亚·涅托在险象环生的情况下宣誓就职。


He was elected with just 38% of the vote, without a majority in either house of Congress, and with the opposition in control of Mexico City, the capital.	他当时的当选票数仅有38%，未能在议会两院占据任何多数，而且首都墨西哥城还落入了反对派的控制。


The presidential runner-up, opposition leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador, questioned the results of the election.	总统选举中票数仅次于涅托的反对派领导人洛佩斯·奥布拉多尔质疑选举结果。


Peña Nieto faced serious challenges.	培尼亚·涅托面临着严峻的挑战。


His Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had governed Mexico for 70 years, until it was swept out of power in 2000.	其所属的革命制度党（PRI）曾领导墨西哥70年，直到在2000年被迫交出了权力。


A large majority of Mexican voters continued to suspect it of corruption, authoritarianism, and economic incompetence.	大部份墨西哥选民对该党的腐败、独裁和经济不作为有着持续的怀疑。


Peña Nieto’s predecessor, Felipe Calderón, had bequeathed him a war on drugs that had already caused more than 60,000 deaths; at least another 22,000 Mexicans were missing.	培尼亚·涅托的前任费利佩·卡尔德龙留下的反毒战争已经造成60,000多人丧生； 失踪的至少还有 22,000名墨西哥人。


At first, it looked like Peña Nieto would be able to turn things around.	起初，培尼亚·涅托看似能够扭转乾坤。


He cut a deal with both opposition parties – the center-right National Action Party (PAN) and the center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) – and proceeded to win significant legislative changes.	他与中间偏右的国家行动党（PAN）和中间偏左的民主革命党（PRD）两大反对党达成协议——并着手推进重大的立法改革。


He was hailed as a world-class reformer.	他一度被誉为世界级的改革者。


The country was living the “Mexican Moment,” as his handlers labeled it, and appeared to be on the verge of fulfilling, at long last, its great promise.	国家则处在管理者所谓的“墨西哥时刻”，似乎马上就要最终实现光明的前途。


Two years on, success seems to be slipping through Peña Nieto’s hands.	两年后，成功似乎正从培尼亚·涅托的指缝中滑落。


The country and its increasingly grey-haired president are experiencing one tragedy, scandal, or disappointment after another.	这个国家及其头发日渐斑白的总统经历的悲剧、丑闻和失望一个接一个。


The price of oil, from which the government obtains one-third of its revenue, has plunged 40% in six months.	作为政府三分之一收入来源的石油价格半年暴跌40%之多。


With last year’s economic growth expected to be 2%, following just 1.1% growth in 2013, Mexico will barely have grown faster during the first third of Peña Nieto’s six-year term than it did during the last quarter-century.	今年经济增速仅为2%，2013年也仅为1. 1%，墨西哥经济在培尼亚·涅托六年任期前三分之一的增长速度并不比过去四分之一世纪快很多。


Meanwhile, a pact Peña Nieto made with his predecessor is returning to haunt him.	此外，培尼亚·涅托与前任达成的一项协议始终都在困扰他。


In exchange for support in the Senate for energy-sector reform, he gave Calderón and his aides a tacit blanket pardon for any conceivable misdeeds committed by Calderón’s presidential administration.	为换取参议院对能源部门改革的支持，他赦免了卡尔德龙及其助手在卡尔德龙任职期间可能犯下的任何过错。


This hurts Peña Nieto’s image in exactly the areas in which Mexicans most mistrust their leaders: violence and graft.	这恰恰在墨西哥人最不信任本国领导人的领域损害了培尼亚·涅托的形象：暴力和贪污。


The massacre of 22 civilians by the army last June in Tlatlaya, a small town west of Mexico City, and the disappearance and subsequent murder and incineration of 43 students, also close to the capital, was not a new type of development in Mexico.	22名平民去年6月在墨西哥城以西小镇Tlatlaya遭军队屠杀，以及随后同样发生在首都附近的43名学生失踪、之后遭谋杀并焚尸灭迹在墨西哥已经算不上什么新鲜事。


Extrajudicial executions and disappearances were common under Calderón.	卡尔德隆治下的法外处决和失踪已经是家常便饭。


But this time something snapped.	但这次形势发生了改变。


Protests erupted across Mexico.	抗议活动席卷墨西哥全境。


The government mishandled both episodes, believing that they would blow over.	政府对抗议活动处理不善，认为这阵风很快就会结束。


Peña Nieto has yet to visit Iguala, the town where the students were abducted and murdered.	培尼亚·涅托还没有到访学生被绑架并杀害的小镇伊瓜拉。


He waited a month after they disappeared before meeting with their parents, and spent a week in China and Australia in the middle of the crisis.	他在学生失踪一个月后才接见失踪学生家长，并在危机如火如荼时花了一个星期访问中国和澳大利亚。


Meanwhile, charges of corruption have been piling up.	此外，还有堆积如山的腐败指控。


Just hours after Peña Nieto canceled a contract with a Chinese railroad company to build a fast train north of Mexico City, it was revealed that his wife had acquired an ostentatious home – thanks to a mortgage extended to her by the Mexican partner of the Chinese railway firm.	就在佩尼亚·涅托取消与一家中国铁路企业在墨西哥城北修建高铁合同短短几小时后，媒体披露其夫人借助该中国企业在墨合作方为其提供的抵押贷款，成功购入了一栋豪华住所。


The conflict of interest was so brazen, even by Mexican standards, that the first lady – a popular former telenovela actress – quickly announced that she would sell the mansion.	此中的利益冲突即便根据墨西哥的标准也太过明显，以致于第一夫人——一位此前曾非常出名的电视演员——迅速宣布她会��这栋豪宅卖掉。


Then, in early December, the Wall Street Journal revealed that Peña Nieto’s finance minister, Luis Videgaray, had also purchased a home in late 2012, just before taking office, from the same contractor, with a similar mortgage.	之后的12月初，华尔街日报撰文称培尼亚·涅托的财政部长Luis Videgaray 2012年底就任前也曾从同一家承包商处取得了类似的抵押贷款。


On the second anniversary of Peña Nieto’s inauguration, his approval rating had dwindled to 39%, with 58% of the public disapproving of his performance.	当培尼亚·涅托就职两周年之际其支持率已经滑落至39%，反对其执政表现的公众则高达58%。


Peña Nieto has tried to soldier through the crisis by promising reforms aimed at improving security and strengthening the rule of law.	培尼亚·涅托曾试图通过承诺旨在改善安全和强化法治的改革来度过危机。


The trouble with this strategy is what no Mexican president has been willing to acknowledge: the country has never experienced the rule of law.	上述战略的问题在于没有哪位墨西哥总统愿意承认：法治是什么这个国家从未见过。


Before the advent of democracy in 2000, order was imposed by the iron hand of a corrupt, authoritarian state.	2000年民主诞生前，墨西哥依靠腐败、专制政府的铁腕来维持秩序。


When its grip was loosened, any semblance of law and order disappeared.	随着专制政府控制力逐渐减弱，法律和秩序的假象也随之消失了。


Unless and until this is recognized, reforms in this area will lack credibility for Mexicans and foreign investors alike, and thus are unlikely to be effective.	除非承认这一点，否则上述领域改革在墨西哥民众和外国投资者眼中都缺乏公信力，因此也可能不会产生任何效果。


Unfortunately, Peña Nieto, whose party ruled Mexico in the bad old days, is unlikely to be the president who breaks the mold.	不幸的是，培尼亚·涅托的政党曾经在可悲的旧日统治墨西哥，因此不太可能完成打破原有模式的任务。


Mexico was once accustomed to crises (even if it hasn’t had one for 20 years); but they typically erupted at the end of a presidential term.	危机对墨西哥而言曾经是家常便饭（虽然危机已有近20年未在墨西哥上演）； 但危机爆发时总统任期往往接近尾声。


Peña Nieto has four more years in office, and he is constrained by the political elite that brought him to power from implementing the drastic measures – a cabinet reshuffle, criminal accountability for corruption and human-rights violations, and radical judicial reforms – that Mexico needs.	培尼亚·涅托的任期还有四年，他受制于让他登上权力巅峰的政治精英而无法实施墨西哥真正需要的严厉政策——内阁改组、追究腐败和侵犯人权行为的刑事责任，以及积极推进司法改革。


But the alternative could be worse: a populist backlash that destroys much of what Mexico has achieved over the last two decades.	但另一种局面或许更为可怕：任由民粹主义回归摧毁20年来墨西哥所取得的一切成就。


Mexico Breaking Good?	墨西哥状况改善？


MEXICO CITY – For a glimpse of the average American’s understanding of the relationship between the United States and Mexico, one only has to watch the critically acclaimed television series Breaking Bad.	墨西哥城—要知道普通美国人对美国和墨西哥关系的看法，看看热播剧《绝命毒师》（Breaking Bad）就好了。


Set in Albuquerque, New Mexico, a few hundred miles from the border, the series chronicles the rise and fall of Walter White, a high school chemistry teacher who becomes a methamphetamine tycoon.	这部拍摄于距边境几百英里的新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基（Albuquerque）的电视剧讲述的是高中化学教师沃尔特·怀特（Walter White）变身大毒枭的沉浮史。


Most of the characters on the US side of the border are portrayed with sympathy and depth.	边境这一边的角色都被刻画成富有同情心而深邃的人物。


The main protagonist’s step-by-step descent into the drug underworld unfolds with such subtlety that each individual decision he makes along the way seems almost reasonable.	主角一步步向地下贩毒网堕落的过程被描写得极为详尽，在此过程中，他所作出的每一个决定几乎都是十分理性的。


Unfortunately, the other side of the border receives more superficial treatment.	不幸的是，边境另一边的角色刻画的颇为肤浅。


In one scene, two Mexican hit men ruthlessly slaughter a dozen innocent compatriots who could bear witness to their border crossing.	有一幕戏是这样的。 两名墨西哥职业杀手残忍地杀害了可能指证他们偷渡越境的十几名无辜同胞。


In another episode, members of the Mexican Federal Police are seen assaulting a drug lord in his hacienda, with the implication that they are only doing the bidding of a rival dealer.	还有一集中，墨西哥联邦警察突袭毒枭庄园，但给人的印象是他们在与敌对毒枭竞价。


“Breaking Bad” is brilliant television, but it is regrettable that so many Americans see only this side of things.	“绝命毒师”是一部很有才的电视剧，但遗憾的是，太多的美国人仅仅从这一边看事物。


Mexico has profound security problems in some regions, but it is also a country that just might be on the threshold of a huge political and economic transformation.	墨西哥的某些地区存在严重的安全问题，但它也是一个可能正处在政治和经济剧变门槛上的国家。


Indeed, for a couple of years now, Mexico’s GDP growth rates have been near the top of the OECD, and recently above Brazil’s.	事实上，多年来墨西哥GDP增长率接近经合组织的最高水平，最近也要高于巴西。


Rather than continue fighting (as in the US) after a heated presidential election, Mexico’s major political parties appear poised to cooperate on a number of critical structural reforms that could energize economic growth for decades to come.	墨西哥的主要党派并没有（像美国那样）在激烈的总统大选后仍然争个不休，而是摆出了一副在诸多关键结构性改革领域精诚合作的样子，这些改革可以为墨西哥带来几十年的经济增长动力。


The agenda includes an expansion of the tax base to reduce dependency on oil, an initiative to increase competition in media and telecommunications, and a constitutional change that will permit the state-owned oil company Pemex to enter into joint ventures with foreign firms.	墨西哥的日程包括扩大税基以减弱对石油的依赖、旨在增加传媒和通信业竞争的方案，以及允许国有石油公司Pemex与外国企业合资的宪法修正案。


This last reform is critical, because much of Mexico’s geology is very similar to that of the southwestern US.	最后一项改革是关键性的，因为墨西哥大部的地质特征与美国东南部极为相似。


In principle, Mexico’s economy should be benefiting from the same shale-gas revolution that is providing a huge boost to the US, where natural-gas prices are now less than one-quarter of what Europeans pay.	从理论上说，墨西哥经济应该像美国一样从页岩气革命中获得巨大的好处。 在美国，天然气价格还不到欧洲的四分之一。


Mexico is already enjoying a manufacturing boom that has increased its exports to the US, following a long secular decline.	在经历了长期衰退后，墨西哥已进入制造业繁荣，这增加了它对美国的出口。


With China’s wages soaring and rising oil prices driving up shipping costs, production in Mexico is suddenly looking much more attractive, even taking security concerns into account.	在中国工资大涨而油价上升推高运输成本的情况下，墨西哥产品突然变得极具吸引力，即使考虑安全因素也是如此。


Of course, any number of things can go wrong.	当然，任何事情都可以变坏。


First and foremost, the political elite might suddenly back away from essential structural reforms, and the Mexican business community’s current optimism could collapse.	首先也是最重要的是，政治精英可能突然逆转关键结构性改革，墨西哥商界目前的乐观情绪将崩溃。


It wouldn’t be the first time.	这已经不是新鲜事了。


There is also a risk that foreign investors, who already are starting to like Mexico, might come to love it a little too much.	还有另一个风险。 已开始喜欢上墨西哥的外国投资者可能有点热情过度了。


A huge influx of capital could lead to a significant appreciation of the peso’s exchange rate, causing an increase in Mexico’s currently very attractive labor costs.	巨量资本流入可能导致比索的剧烈升值，使墨西哥目前极具吸引力的劳动力成本上涨。


Or the US could slip into recession (though modest growth is certainly the central scenario nowadays).	或者美国滑入衰退（尽管温和增长显然是目前的核心前景）。


Then there is the matter of security, which constitutes a huge tax on business in many parts of Mexico.	此外还有安全问题，这相当于对墨西哥大部的企业课以重税。


For example, one important achievement of former President Felipe Calderón’s administration was to push through a 140-mile highway connecting the interior city of Durango and the Pacific port at Mazatlán.	比如，前总统卡尔德隆的一个重要成就打通了内陆城市杜兰戈（Durango）和太平洋港口城市马萨特兰（Mazatlán）的140英里高速公路。


Traversing extremely rough terrain with 200 tunnels and bridges, it promises to cut the transit time by three or four hours.	这是一段非常难建的公路，期间散布着200个隧道和桥梁，可以将耗时减少三到四小时。


Except for the weather, the highway has the feel of Switzerland.	除了天气，这条高速公路颇有些瑞士的感觉。


But the new road has raised concerns, particularly in the US, that it could serve as a smuggling route for drugs and weapons, so the military feels obliged to set up checkpoints.	但这条新路引起了担心，特别是美国，因为它可能成为走私毒品和武器的阳关大道，因此军方不得不设置检查点。


Unfortunately, early anecdotal evidence suggests that these safeguards may ultimately slow down traffic by roughly the same amount of time that the project was meant to speed it up!	不幸的是，早期非正式证据表明，士兵检查让运输增加的时间把该公路所节约的时间侵蚀殆尽！


Mexican leaders acknowledge the country’s internal problems, but place three of them at America’s doorstep.	墨西哥领导人承认国内存在问题，但把其中三大问题推到了美国门口。


First and foremost, the US generates the huge demand for illicit drugs that sustains the entire Latin American mafia, just as the US experiment with alcohol prohibition in the 1920’s fueled the rise of gangsters like Al Capone.	首先也是最重要的是，是美国创造了整个拉丁美洲黑社会赖以生存的巨大毒品需求，正如美国20世纪20年代的禁酒令实验催生了艾尔·卡彭（Al Capone）这样的黑帮大佬。