Although the 49-year-old professor remains formally uncommitted to running for office, his frankness and tolerance aids his ability to communicate a clear political message of the need for fundamental change.	虽然这位49岁的教授尚未正式宣布参选，但他的坦诚和宽容使其更有能力去传达一个推动根本性变革的清晰政治信息。


Rarely in South Korean politics has a candidate’s personality played so important a role.	而在韩国政治中还从未有一个总统候选人能有如此大的个人魅力。


Ahn’s economic beliefs, formed mainly by his experiences as a CEO fighting against the entrenched power of South Korea’s chaebol (vast, politically well-connected industrial conglomerates), has rekindled a debate on both the right and the left about whether the chaebol are still capable of leading the country’s economy effectively.	此外安哲秀的经济信条基本都是在当年任企业CEO时与财阀（政治背景深厚的巨型工业集团）的斗争中形成的，而这些信条也再次在左右两派阵营中掀起了一场关于财阀是否还能有效领导韩国经济的辩论。


In an era of growing inequality and joblessness, Ahn’s criticism of the chaebol is both smart economics and smart politics.	在这个分配不均和失业状况不断恶化的时期，安哲秀对财阀的批评无论在经济还是政治上都是明智的。


Economically frustrated youth welcome Ahn with loud cheers wherever he appears, because he expresses their anxiety that the chaebol are stifling new companies that could create much-needed jobs.	那些经济上不如意的青少年在安哲秀每次出现时都会大声欢呼，因为他们担心大财阀会倾轧那些新企业的生存空间并减少新增职位，而安哲秀恰好表达了这一诉求。


One big obstacle that Ahn will face if he decides to run is the need to organize a political party, or else to forge a coalition among South Korea’s fractured opposition parties.	但安哲秀竞选所面对的一大障碍就是必须组建一个政党，或者在韩国星罗棋布的反对派中组建一个联盟——这都绝非易事。


Neither is an easy task, and the precedent of incompetence established by Japan’s Democratic Party since it defeated the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party may make some South Korean voters reluctant to abandon the familiar and battle-tested GNP.	而日本民主党在击败长期执政的自民党后所表现出来的无能先例也令许多韩国选民不愿意抛弃熟悉且久经考验的大国家党。


But, despite these worries, it is difficult to imagine that Ahn would stand aside this April while voters’ demand for him continues to soar.	但即便存在这些顾虑，我们也很难想象今年四月安哲秀能在选民不断高涨的呼声中按兵不动。


The near-certainty that Ahn will join the fray is not good news for the already-unstable GNP, especially for Park.	安哲秀参选的极大可能性对于已经陷入风雨飘摇的大国家党（尤其是朴槿惠）来说可不是个好消息。


In one of her very rare appearances on a popular television talk show on January 2, she called Ahn “a very popular professor with young people.”	在1月2日朴槿惠罕见地出现在一档著名电视节目上，并将安哲秀称之为“很受青年人欢迎的教授”。


Indeed, while she acknowledged that young men and women have “rebelled” against the established parties, Ahn supposedly spurred them to do so through a series of lectures called “Youth Concert.”	事实上当她承认青年人都开始“反抗”现有的政党之时，估计安哲秀就是通过一系列名为“青年音乐会”的课程来实现这一点的。


While the “Ice Princess,” as Park is nicknamed, will undoubtedly retain her core voters, more than 20 million South Koreans now access Twitter or Facebook on their cellphones, and follow politics on them.	而当绰号“冰公主”的朴槿惠不出意外地保住其核心选民时，超过2000万韩国人正在利用手机上twitter或者facebook并以此跟踪政治动向。


These are new or disenchanted voters; how they vote in April – and how many of their fellow citizens follow their lead – will determine whether South Korea has its own political spring.	这就是那些新涌现且醒悟了的选民； 而他们将在四月如何投票——同时又有多少市民会追随他们的脚步——将决定韩国是否将迎来自己的政治之春。


A Rule of Law for Sovereign Debt	主权债务的法治


NEW YORK – Governments sometimes need to restructure their debts.	纽约—有时，政府需要充足它的债务。


Otherwise, a country’s economic and political stability may be threatened.	否则，一国就有可能遭遇经济和政治动荡。


But, in the absence of an international rule of law for resolving sovereign defaults, the world pays a higher price than it should for such restructurings.	但是，在缺乏解决主权违约的国际法治的情况下，世界为政府债务充足付出了不必要的高代价。


The result is a poorly functioning sovereign-debt market, marked by unnecessary strife and costly delays in addressing problems when they arise.	结果是主权债务市场效率低下，时常出现不必要的争吵和在问题出现时拖延解决，造成高昂代价。


We are reminded of this time and again.	我们一再面对这一局面。


In Argentina, the authorities’ battles with a small number of “investors” (so-called vulture funds) jeopardized an entire debt restructuring agreed to – voluntarily – by an overwhelming majority of the country’s creditors.	在阿根廷，当局与一小撮“投资者”（所谓的兀鹫基金）之间的缠斗阻碍了绝大多数阿根廷债权人自愿同意的完全债务重组方案。


In Greece, most of the “rescue” funds in the temporary “assistance” programs are allocated for payments to existing creditors, while the country is forced into austerity policies that have contributed mightily to a 25% decline in GDP and have left its population worse off.	在希腊，大部分临时性“援助”计划的“救援”资金被用于偿还现有债权人，而希腊被迫采取导致其GDP大降25%、其人民境况大大受损的紧缩政策。


In Ukraine, the potential political ramifications of sovereign-debt distress are enormous.	在乌克兰，主权债务灾难很有可能导致巨大的政治波及面。


So the question of how to manage sovereign-debt restructuring – to reduce debt to levels that are sustainable – is more pressing than ever.	因此，如何管理主权债务重组——以使债务下降到可持续水平——这一问题比以往任何时候都要紧迫。


The current system puts excessive faith in the “virtues” of markets.	当前的体系过于信任市场的“美德”。


Disputes are generally resolved not on the basis of rules that ensure fair resolution, but by bargaining among unequals, with the rich and powerful usually imposing their will on others.	通常，纠纷不是根据确保公平方案的规则解决，而是通过不公平的讨价还价解决，有钱有势者任意践踏其他人的利益。


The resulting outcomes are generally not only inequitable, but also inefficient.	结果是既低效又不平等。


Those who claim that the system works well frame cases like Argentina as exceptions.	有人声称这一体系运转良好，说阿根廷只是个例外。


Most of the time, they claim, the system does a good job.	他们声称，大部分时候这一体系效果不错。


What they mean, of course, is that weak countries usually knuckle under.	当然，他们的意思是弱国常常屈服。


But at what cost to their citizens?	但这给它们的公民造成了什么代价？


How well do the restructurings work?	重组运转得如何？


Has the country been put on a sustainable debt path?	国家走上可持续债务之路了吗？


Too often, because the defenders of the status quo do not ask these questions, one debt crisis is followed by another.	太多时候，由于现状捍卫者没有提出这些问题，导致债务危机接踵而至。


Greece’s debt restructuring in 2012 is a case in point.	2012年的希腊债务重组就是这样。


The country played according to the “rules” of financial markets and managed to finalize the restructuring rapidly; but the agreement was a bad one and did not help the economy recover.	该国根据金融市场的“规则”行事，并且成功地迅速完成了重组； 但重组协议不是个好协议，无助于经济复苏。


Three years later, Greece is in desperate need of a new restructuring.	三年后，希腊急切地需要新的重组计划。


Distressed debtors need a fresh start.	不堪重负的债务人需要重新开始的机会。


Excessive penalties lead to negative-sum games, in which the debtor cannot recover and creditors do not benefit from the larger repayment capacity that recovery would entail.	过度惩罚导致负和博弈，债务人无法实现复苏，债权人也无法获得复苏后偿债能力提高所带来的好处。


The absence of a rule of law for debt restructuring delays fresh starts and can lead to chaos.	债务重组缺乏法治推迟了债务人的重新开始，可能导致混乱。


That is why no government leaves it to market forces to restructure domestic debts.	这也是没有政府会让市场力量重组其国内债务的原因。


All have concluded that “contractual remedies” simply do not suffice.	所有政府都认为“契约补救”（contractual remedies）根本不够。


Instead, they enact bankruptcy laws to provide the ground rules for creditor-debtor bargaining, thereby promoting efficiency and fairness.	相反，它们实施破产法作为债务人-债权人讨价还价的基本规则，从而推进效率和公平。


Sovereign-debt restructurings are even more complicated than domestic bankruptcy, plagued as they are by problems of multiple jurisdictions, implicit as well as explicit claimants, and ill-defined assets upon which claimants can draw.	主权债务重组比国内破产还要复杂，一个原因是主权债务重组是一个多重司法管辖权问题，存在各种直接和间接索偿人，而索偿人可以主张权利的资产定义模糊。


That is why we find the claim by some – including the US Treasury – that there is no need for an international rule of law so incredible.	因此，我们发现，一些索偿人（包括美国财政部）的主张——这一问题不需要国际法治——是毫无道理的。


To be sure, it may not be possible to establish a full international bankruptcy code; but a consensus could be reached on many issues.	诚然，也许建立完整的国际破产法希望渺茫； 但在诸多问题上形成共识是可能的。


For example, a new framework should include clauses providing for stays of litigation while the restructuring is being carried out, thus limiting the scope for disruptive behavior by vulture funds.	比如，新的框架应该包括在重组进行期间保留诉讼的条款，从而限制兀鹫基金的干扰行为空间。


It should also contain provisions for lending into arrears: lenders willing to provide credit to a country going through a restructuring would receive priority treatment.	新框架还应该包括欠款贷款条款：愿意在一国进行重组时提供信用的贷款人将获得优先对待。


Such lenders would thus have an incentive to provide fresh resources to countries when they need them the most.	这类贷款人因此有激励在一国最需要资金的时候提供新资金源。


There should be agreement, too, that no country can sign away its basic rights.	同样应该形成一致的是各国不能放弃其基本权利。


There can be no voluntary renunciation of sovereign immunity, just as no person can sell himself into slavery.	不可自愿放弃主权豁免权，正如人不可卖身为奴。


There also should be limits on the extent to which one democratic government can bind its successors.	还应该限制国内政府可以“绑架”其继任者的程度。


This is particularly important because of the tendency of financial markets to induce short-sighted politicians to loosen today’s budget constraints, or to lend to flagrantly corrupt governments such as the fallen Yanukovych regime in Ukraine, at the expense of future generations.	这一点尤其重要，因为金融市场总是会引诱短视的政客放松今天的预算约束，或借钱给极度腐败的政府（如乌克兰的亚努科维奇政府），从而贻害后代。


Such a constraint would improve the functioning of sovereign-debt markets by inducing greater due diligence in lending.	这一约束能够加强贷款的尽职调查，从而改善主权债务市场的功能。


A “soft law” framework containing these features, implemented through an oversight commission that acted as a mediator and supervisor of the restructuring process, could resolve some of today’s inefficiencies and inequities.	由作为调解人和管理者的监督委员会以实施具备这些特征的“软法”框架能够在某种程度上解决今天的低效率和不平等问题。


But, if the framework is to be consensual, its implementation should not be based at an institution that is too closely associated with one side of the market or the other.	但是，要让这一框架获得普遍认可，其实施不可由于市场中某一方关系过近的机构来进行。


This means that regulation of sovereign-debt restructuring cannot be based at the International Monetary Fund, which is too closely affiliated with creditors (and is a creditor itself).	这意味着主权债务重组监管不可以国际货币基金组织（IMF）为基础，它与债权国关系过近（并且自己也是债权人）。 为了让未来冲突风险最小化，该框架可以由联合国或新的国际机构来实施。


To minimize the potential for conflicts of interest, the framework could be implemented by the United Nations, a more representative institution that is taking the lead on the matter, or by a new global institution, as already suggested in the 2009 Stiglitz Report on reforming the international monetary and financial system.	联合国更具代表性，并且已经开始主导。 而2009年斯蒂格利茨报告（Stiglitz Report）提出了关于成立改革国际货币和金融体系的新机构的建议。


The crisis in Europe is just the latest example of the high costs – for creditors and debtors alike – entailed by the absence of an international rule of law for resolving sovereign-debt crises.	欧洲危机只是缺乏解决主权债务危机的国际法治造成高昂代价的最新例子。


Such crises will continue to occur.	这类危机还会继续发生。


If globalization is to work for all countries, the rules of sovereign lending must change.	欲使全球化造福所有国家，主权借贷的规则就必须改变。


The modest reforms we propose are the right place to start.	我们所建议的温和改革是正确的起点。


A Step Forward for Sovereign Debt	主权债务的一大飞跃


NEW YORK – Every advanced country has a bankruptcy law, but there is no equivalent framework for sovereign borrowers.	发自纽约——每一个先进的国家都有破产法���但对于主权借款人却没有相应的框架。


That legal vacuum matters, because, as we now see in Greece and Puerto Rico, it can suck the life out of economies.	正如我们在希腊和波多黎各看到的一样，这一法律真空将导致经济体丧失活力。


In September, the United Nations took a big step toward filling the void, approving a set of principles for sovereign-debt restructuring.	九月，联合国为填补这个空白迈出了一大步，批准了一套主权债务重组原则。


The nine precepts – namely, a sovereign’s right to initiate a debt restructuring, sovereign immunity, equitable treatment of creditors, (super) majority restructuring, transparency, impartiality, legitimacy, sustainability, and good faith in negotiations – form the rudiments of an effective international rule of law.	这九项原则是—— 主权启动债务重组的权利，主权豁免权，公平对待所有债权人，获得（超）多数同意重组，透明性，公正性，合理性，可持续性，以及在诚信谈判——形成一个有效的国际化法律规则雏形。


The overwhelming support for these principles, with 136 UN members voting in favor and only six against (led by the United States), shows the extent of global consensus on the need to resolve debt crises in a timely manner.	这些原则获得了联合国会员国136票赞成，仅6票反对（以美国为首）的压倒性支持，显示全球对及时解决债务危机的需求已经形成了一定的共识。


But the next step – an international treaty establishing a global bankruptcy regime to which all countries are bound – may prove more difficult.	但下一步——建立一个约束所有国家的全球性破产制度国际条约——可能更困难。


Recent events underscore the enormous risks posed by the lack of a framework for sovereign debt restructuring.	最近的各类事件都体现出缺乏主权债务重组框架所带来的巨大风险。


Puerto Rico’s debt crisis cannot be resolved.	波多黎各的债务危机得不到解决。


Notably, US courts invalidated the domestic bankruptcy law, ruling that because the island is, in effect, a US colony, its government had no authority to enact its own legislation.	值得注意的是，美国法院的国内破产法无法管辖此地，因为这个岛实际上是美国的殖民地，而当地政府却没有为自身立法的权力。


In the case of Argentina, another US court allowed a small minority of so-called vulture funds to jeopardize a restructuring process to which 92.4% of the country’s creditors had agreed.	而在阿根廷方面，另一家美国法院允许一小撮所谓秃鹫基金去阻挠破坏一项得到该国92. 4％的债权人同意的重组进程。


Similarly, in Greece, the absence of an international legal framework was an important reason why its creditors – the troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund – could impose policies that inflicted enormous harm.	同样，在希腊，国际法律框架的缺失是其债权人——欧盟委员会，欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织——为何可以强制推行一系列造成严重破坏性政策的一个重要原因。


But some powerful actors would stop well short of establishing an international legal framework.	但是，一些有实力的参与者会也不愿去建立一个国际法律框架。


The International Capital Market Association (ICMA), supported by the IMF and the US Treasury, suggests changing the language of debt contracts.	国际货币基金组织和美国财政部支持的国际资本市场协会就建议改变债务合同的条款语言。


The cornerstone of such proposals is the implementation of better collective action clauses (CACs), which would make restructuring proposals approved by a supermajority of creditors binding on all others.	这些提案的基础是施行更好的集体行动条款（CACs），这将使获得绝大多数债权人批准的重组协议书能同时对其余债权人产生强制力。


But while better CACs certainly would complicate life for vulture funds, they are not a comprehensive solution.	但同时更好的集体行动条款肯定会使得秃鹫基金更难以行事，但前者也不能算是一个全面的解决方案。


In fact, the focus on fine-tuning debt contracts leaves many critical issues unresolved, and in some ways bakes in the current system’s deficiencies – or even makes matters worse.	事实上，对债务合同的微调留下了许多没有解决的关键问题，在某些方面加深了当前系统的不足之处，甚至让事情变得更糟。


For example, one serious question that remains unaddressed by the ICMA proposal is how to settle conflicts that arise when bonds are issued in different jurisdictions with different legal frameworks.	比如说， 国际资本管理协会提案依然未能解决的一个严重问题是如何解决出现在不同司法管辖区不同法律框架下发出的债券所导致的冲突。


Contract law might work well when there is only one class of bondholders; but when it comes to bonds issued in different jurisdictions and currencies, the ICMA proposal fails to solve the difficult “aggregation” problem (how does one weight the votes of different claimants?).	只有债券持有人都是同一类型时，合同法可以凑效； 但是当涉及到由不同的司法管辖区和货币发行的债券时，协会的提案未能解决困难的“聚合”的问题（如何分配不同的索赔人的权重？


Moreover, the ICMA’s proposal promotes collusive behavior among the major financial centers: The only creditors whose votes would count for the activation of CACs would be those who owned bonds issued under a restricted set of jurisdictions.	此外，这一协会提案进一步激发了主要金融中心之间的串通行为：只有那些在一组有限的司法管辖区拥有债券的债券人才可以决定是否推行集体行动条款。


And it does nothing to address the severe inequity between formal creditors and implicit ones (namely, the pensioners and workers to whom sovereign debtors also have obligations) who would have no say in a restructuring proposal.	而这无助于解决正规债权人和对重组方案没有发言权的内隐债券人（即主权债务人对其负有责任的退休人员和工人）之间的严重不平等。


All six countries that voted against the UN resolution (the US, Canada, Germany, Israel, Japan, and the United Kingdom) have domestic bankruptcy legislation, because they recognize that CACs are not enough.	投票反对联合国决议的所有六国（美国、加拿大、德国、以色列、日本和英国）都拥有国内破产法，因为他们认识到集体行动条款是不够的。


Yet all refuse to accept that the rationale for a domestic rule of law – including provisions to protect weak borrowers from powerful and abusive creditors – applies at the international level as well.	然而它们都拒绝接受国内法治的基本原理—— 包括保护弱势的借款人远离强大和暴虐的债权人的规定——也在国际上适用。


Perhaps that is because all are leading creditor countries, with no desire to embrace restrictions on their powers.	也许因为他们都是债权大国，所以没有限制自己权力的意愿。


Respect for the nine principles approved by the UN is precisely what’s been missing in recent decades.	尊重联合国颁布的九项原则恰恰是在最近数十年来一直缺失的事情。


The 2012 Greek debt restructuring, for example, did not restore sustainability, as the desperate need for a new restructuring only three years later demonstrated.	例如2012年希腊债务重组，因为没有恢复其可持续性，仅仅三年后就被迫进行新的重组。


And it has become almost the norm to violate the principles of sovereign immunity and equitable treatment of creditors, evidenced so clearly in the New York court’s decision on Argentine debt.	对主权豁免和公平对待所有债权人原则的破坏几乎已经成为常态，正如纽约法院对阿根廷债务的判决如此清晰体现的那样。


The market for credit default swaps has led to non-transparent processes of debt restructuring that create no incentive for parties to bargain in good faith.	信用违约互换市场导致了不透明的债务重组过程，使得谈判各方都缺少诚信合作的动力。


The irony is that countries like the US object to an international legal framework because it interferes with their national sovereignty.	具有讽刺意味的是，像美国这样的国家反对国际法律框架的理由是觉得它会干涉本国的主权。


Yet the most important principle to which the international community has given its assent is respect for sovereign immunity: There are limits beyond which markets – and governments – cannot go.	然而，国际社会同意的最重要原则是对主权豁免原则的尊重：有些限制是市场和政府不能跨越的。


Incumbent governments may be tempted to exchange sovereign immunity for better financing conditions in the short run, at the expense of larger costs that will be paid by their successors.	现任政府可能会倾向于在短期内以主权豁免来换取更好的融资条件，导致继任者支付的成本代价更大。


No government should have the right to give up sovereign immunity, just as no person can sell himself into slavery.	没有一个政府有权利放弃主权豁免，就像没有人可以将自己卖身为奴。


Debt restructuring is not a zero-sum game.	债务重组并不是一个零和游戏。


The frameworks that govern it determine not just how the pie is divided among formal creditors and between formal and informal claimants, but also the size of the pie.	框架决定的不只是如何在正式的债权人之间划分正式和非正式的索赔馅饼，还决定了馅饼的大小。


Domestic bankruptcy frameworks evolved because punishing insolvent debtors with prison was counterproductive – a prisoner cannot repay his debts.	国内破产框架演变是因为以监狱惩罚破产债务人适得其反——囚犯无法偿还他的债务。


Likewise, kicking debtor countries when they’re down only makes their problems worse: Countries in economic free-fall can’t repay their debts, either.	同样，在债务国走下坡时鞭笞它们会使问题变得更糟：经济呈自由落体状态的国家也无法偿还债务。


A system that actually resolves sovereign-debt crises must be based on principles that maximize the size of the pie and ensure that it is distributed fairly.	一个能切实解决主权债务危机的体系必须建立在最大化馅饼的基础上，并确保其公平分配的原则。


We now have the international community’s commitment to the principles; we just have to build the system.	现在，我们已经有了国际社会承诺的原则； 要做的只是构建系统而已。


A Year of Sovereign Defaults?	主权违约之年？


MIAMI – When it comes to sovereign debt, the term “default” is often misunderstood.	迈阿密—说到主权债务，“违约”一词常常被误解。


It almost never entails the complete and permanent repudiation of the entire stock of debt; indeed, even some Czarist-era Russian bonds were eventually (if only partly) repaid after the 1917 revolution.	几乎从未发生过完全、永久地赖掉所有存量债务的违约； 事实上，就连帝俄时期的债券，也有一些在1917年革命后最终得到了偿付（哪怕是部分偿付）。


Rather, non-payment – a “default,” according to credit-rating agencies, when it involves private creditors – typically spurs a conversation about debt restructuring, which can involve maturity extensions, coupon-payment cuts, grace periods, or face-value reductions (so-called “haircuts”).	但是，不偿付——当牵涉到私人债权人时，即评级机构所谓的“违约”——常常会刺激关于债务重组的讨论，债务重组可能包括延期、减少息票支付或削减面值（所谓的“剃头”）。


If history is a guide, such conversations may be happening a lot in 2016.	如果以历史作为指引，这样的讨论可能会在2016年大量发生。


Like so many other features of the global economy, debt accumulation and default tends to occur in cycles.	与全球经济的诸多其他特征一样，债务累积和违约总是以周期形式出现。


Since 1800, the global economy has endured several such cycles, with the share of independent countries undergoing restructuring during any given year oscillating between zero and 50% (see figure).	自1800年以来，全球经济已经经历了多次这样的周期，在任意一年，独立国家经历重组的比例在零和50%之间波动（见图）。


Whereas one- and two-decade lulls in defaults are not uncommon, each quiet spell has invariably been followed by a new wave of defaults.	一二十年没有违约的情况并不少见，但每一次这样的宁静期之后无一例外都爆发了新的违约潮。


The most recent default cycle includes the emerging-market debt crises of the 1980s and 1990s.	最近一个违约周期包括了20世纪80和90年代的新兴市场债务危机。


Most countries resolved their external-debt problems by the mid-1990s, but a substantial share of countries in the lowest-income group remain in chronic arrears with their official creditors.	大部分国家在20世纪90年代中期解决了外债问题，但有很大一部分最低收入国家仍然长期拖欠官方债权人。


Like outright default or the restructuring of debts to official creditors, such arrears are often swept under the rug, possibly because they tend to involve low-income debtors and relatively small dollar amounts.	和对官方债权人完全违约或重组债务不同，这些拖欠常常不为人知，因为债务人往往收入很低，而债务的美元数字也相对较低。


But that does not negate their eventual capacity to help spur a new round of crises, when sovereigns who never quite got a handle on their debts are, say, met with unfavorable global conditions.	但这并不意味着它们可能最终刺激新一轮危机，如果困于债务的主权实体遇到不利的全球环境的话。


And, indeed, global economic conditions – such as commodity-price fluctuations and changes in interest rates by major economic powers such as the United States or China – play a major role in precipitating sovereign-debt crises.	事实上，全球经济环境——如大宗商品价格波动和美国或中国等主要经济力量利率变化——在主权债务危机的反覆中起着重要作用。


As my recent work with Vincent Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch reveals, peaks and troughs in the international capital-flow cycle are especially dangerous, with defaults proliferating at the end of a capital-inflow bonanza.	我与文森特·莱因哈特（Vincent Reinhart）和克里斯托弗·特雷贝施（Christoph Trebesch）的新研究表明，国际资本流周期的波峰和波谷非常危险，违约总是在资本流入潮结束后大量涌现。


As 2016 begins, there are clear signs of serious debt/default squalls on the horizon.	随着2016年的到来，有清晰的信号表明严重的债务/违约现象正在步步逼近。


We can already see the first white-capped waves.	我们已经可以看到第一波白浪了。


For some sovereigns, the main problem stems from internal debt dynamics.	对一些主权实体来说，主要问题来自内债动态。


Ukraine’s situation is certainly precarious, though, given its unique drivers, it is probably best not to draw broader conclusions from its trajectory.	尽管如此，由于成因独特，乌克兰的情况显然不是常态，最好不要根据乌克兰的走势下更大的结论。


Greece’s situation, by contrast, is all too familiar.	相反，希腊的情况人们再熟悉不过了。


The government continued to accumulate debt until the burden was no longer sustainable.	希腊政府一直在积累债务，直到债务负担无法持续。


When the evidence of these excesses became overwhelming, new credit stopped flowing, making it impossible to service existing debts.	当充分的证据表明过度负债已经不堪重负，新的信用便不再涌入，希腊因此无法维持现有债务。


Last July, in highly charged negotiations with its official creditors – the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund – Greece defaulted on its obligations to the IMF.	去年7月，在与官方债权人——欧盟、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）的谈判中，希腊对IMF违约。


That makes Greece the first – and, so far, the only – advanced economy ever to do so.	这使希腊成为第一个——也是目前为止唯一一个——对IMF违约的发达经济体。


But, as is so often the case, what happened was not a complete default so much as a step toward a new deal.	但是，和往常一样，希腊违约并非从头再来式的完全违约。


Greece’s European partners eventually agreed to provide additional financial support, in exchange for a pledge from Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government to implement difficult structural reforms and deep budget cuts.	希腊的欧洲伙伴国最终同意提供更多的金融支持，作为交换，希腊总理齐普拉斯政府承诺实施困难的结构改革和大幅削减预算。


Unfortunately, it seems that these measures did not so much resolve the Greek debt crisis as delay it.	不幸的是，这些措施似乎只是推迟了希腊危机，而没有解决它。


Another economy in serious danger is the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, which urgently needs a comprehensive restructuring of its $73 billion in sovereign debt.	另一个陷入严重危机的经济体是波多黎各自由邦，它急需完全重组其730亿美元主权债务。


Recent agreements to restructure some debt are just the beginning; in fact, they are not even adequate to rule out an outright default.	最近所达成的重组部分债务的协议只是开始； 事实上，这些协议甚至不足以排除完全违约。


It should be noted, however, that while such a “credit event” would obviously be a big problem, creditors may be overstating its potential external impacts.	但是，应该指出，尽管如此“信用事件”显然是个大问题，但债权人也许夸张了它的潜在外部影响。


They like to warn that although Puerto Rico is a commonwealth, not a state, its failure to service its debts would set a bad precedent for US states and municipalities.	债权人喜欢警告说，尽管波多黎各是一个自由邦而不是一个国家，但其无法维持其债务将给美国各州和各市树立一个坏先例。


But that precedent was set a long time ago.	但这样的先例早就有了。


In the 1840s, nine US states stopped servicing their debts.	19世纪40年代，九个美国州停止为债务付息。


Some eventually settled at full value; others did so at a discount; and several more repudiated a portion of their debt altogether.	一些州最终足额偿还了债务； 另一些折价偿还了债务；


In the 1870s, another round of defaults engulfed 11 states.	还有一些赖掉了部分债务。 19世纪70年代，另一波违约席卷11州。


West Virginia’s bout of default and restructuring lasted until 1919.	西弗吉尼亚州的违约和重组一直持续到1919年。


Some of the biggest risks lie in the emerging economies, which are suffering primarily from a sea change in the global economic environment.	一些最大的风险存在于新兴经济体，新兴经济体主要受到全球经济环境剧变的影响。


During China’s infrastructure boom, it was importing huge volumes of commodities, pushing up their prices and, in turn, growth in the world’s commodity exporters, including large emerging economies like Brazil.	在中国基础设施繁荣期间，它进口了巨量大宗商品，推高了大宗商品的价格，反过来提振了大宗商品出口国的增长，包括巴西等大型发展中经济体。


Add to that increased lending from China and huge capital inflows propelled by low US interest rates, and the emerging economies were thriving.	此外，来自中国的贷款的增加和美国低利率带来的资本流入让新兴经济体表现出一派欣欣向荣。


The global economic crisis of 2008-2009 disrupted, but did not derail, this rapid growth, and emerging economies enjoyed an unusually crisis-free decade until early 2013.	2008—2009年全球经济危机干扰但并未打断这一高速增长，直到2013年初，新兴经济体度过了一段反常的无危机的十年。


But the US Federal Reserve’s move to increase interest rates, together with slowing growth (and, in turn, investment) in China and collapsing oil and commodity prices, has brought the capital inflow bonanza to a halt.	但美联储提高利率的举动，以及中国增长（从而投资）增长放缓和石油和大宗商品价格暴跌让资本流入潮戛然而止。


Lately, many emerging-market currencies have slid sharply, increasing the cost of servicing external dollar debts.	最近，许多新兴市场货币大幅贬值，增加了维持美元外债的成本。


Export and public-sector revenues have declined, giving way to widening current-account and fiscal deficits.	出口和公共部门收入有所下降，经常项目和财政赤字增加。


Growth and investment have slowed almost across the board.	增长和投资出现全方位放缓。


From a historical perspective, the emerging economies seem to be headed toward a major crisis.	从历史角度看，新兴经济体可能正在迈向重大危机。


Of course, they may prove more resilient than their predecessors.	当然，它们可能比以往恢复力更强。


But we shouldn’t count on it.	但我们不能寄希望于这一点。


Defusing the Third Space Race	遏制第三次空间竞赛


WASHINGTON, DC – With China, Russia, and the United States fine-tuning anti-satellite (ASAT) warfare capabilities, the third round of competition to “seize the high ground” of space is well underway.	华盛顿—随着中国、俄罗斯和美国纷纷提升反卫星（ASAT）作战能力，第三轮空间“占领制高点”的竞争正在如火如荼地展开。


This round is distinctive, because it has three contestants, whereas the first and second rounds, which occurred during the Cold War, had only two.	这是一轮意义不同的竞争，因为出现了三个竞争者，发生在冷战期间的前两轮竞争只有两个竞争者。


But, like its predecessors, today’s space race poses the risks of quick escalation and intensification of conflict among major powers.	但是，和前两次一样，今天的空间竞赛带来了大国冲突迅速升级和加剧的风险。


A set of common-sense rules could help defuse and prevent conflict in space.	一些常识规则有助于缓解和预防空间冲突。


Unfortunately, Russia and China seem uninterested in negotiating a code of conduct for responsible space-faring countries.	不幸的是，俄罗斯和中国似乎没有兴趣参与负责任的空间旅行国家行为规则谈判。


The first space race began in 1957, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the first artificial Earth satellite.	第一次空间竞赛始于1957年，苏联发射了第一课人造地球卫星史普尼克（Sputnik）。


US President Dwight Eisenhower’s administration opted to leave Sputnik and its successors alone, recognizing that the US could outpace Soviet space programs and had more to gain from not destroying them.	美国总统艾森豪威尔政府选择对史普尼克及后来的几颗卫星视而不见，因为他们认为美国的空间计划能够超越苏联，不摧毁苏联卫星利大于弊。


Eisenhower’s successor, John F. Kennedy, arrived at the same conclusion.	艾森豪威尔的继任者肯尼迪持有同样观点。


But he went a step further, joining with the Soviet Union to champion a United Nations resolution on cooperation in space.	但他希望更进一步，与苏联共同制定了联合国空间合作决议。


Kennedy’s eyes had been opened by a July 1962 US atmospheric nuclear test that inadvertently destroyed at least six satellites, including some belonging to the USSR.	肯尼迪的眼界被1962年7月美国大气层核试验打开。 这次核试验不经意地摧毁了至少六科人造卫星，其中一些属于苏联。


A few months later, the Cuban missile crisis spurred agreement on a ban on atmospheric testing.	几个月后，古巴导弹危机爆发，刺激了禁止大气层核试验协议的形成。


In 1967, US President Lyndon Johnson and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev turned UN resolutions into the Outer Space Treaty, which marked the end of the first military space competition.	1967年，美国总统约翰逊和苏联领导人勃列日涅夫在联合国决议的基础上签订外太空条约，标志着第一次空间军事竞赛的结束。


The second round of competition emerged in the mid-1970s.	第二轮竞赛始于20世纪70年代中期。


Brezhnev’s Soviet Union tested a new type of ASAT weapon, and President Gerald Ford’s administration decided to respond in kind.	勃列日涅夫的苏联测试了新型ASAT武器，而美国总统福特政府决定有所反应。


Under President Jimmy Carter, the US tried diplomacy to limit ASAT programs, but the superpowers couldn’t begin to agree on how to define a space weapon.	在卡特总统任上，美国试图通过外交手段限制ASAT计划，但两大超级大国对于怎样定义空间武器始终莫衷一是。


Then, in 1983, President Ronald Reagan’s administration launched its Strategic Defense Initiative, which ratcheted up the competition.	接着，1983年里根总统政府启动了战略防御计划，空间竞赛开始加码。


The second wave of competition ebbed in 1987, when Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to a treaty eliminating intermediate-range missiles, and ended when the Soviet Union dissolved.	第二轮竞赛在1987年开始退潮，当时里根和戈尔巴乔夫同意签署销毁中程导弹的条约，苏联解体后，第二轮空间竞赛也结束了。


The latest round of military competition in space began in 2001, when the US, under President George W. Bush, withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and demonstrated advanced space-enabled military targeting in its war in Iraq.	最新一轮军事空间竞赛始于2001年，小布什总统的美国退出了反弹道导弹条约，并在伊拉克战争中动用了先进的太空军事定位。


At that time, Russia was in no position to compete.	当时的俄罗斯无意竞争。


But the Kremlin gradually boosted investment in “counter-space” capabilities.	但克里姆林宫逐渐增加了俄“反空间”能力的投资。


China did the same, demonstrating a new “hit-to-kill” ASAT weapon system in 2007.	中国亦然，于2007年试验了新的“击杀”ASAT武器系统。


China’s test, like the US atmospheric nuclear test in 1962, was highly damaging to the space environment, creating a vast, indiscriminate, and lethal debris field.	和1962年美国的大气层核试验一样，中国的测试对空间环境具有极大的破坏力，制造出一大片无差别致命碎片区。


In 2008, the US used a specially adapted sea-based interceptor missile to shoot down a malfunctioning US intelligence satellite just before its reentry into the atmosphere.	2008年，美国使用经专门调试的海基截击导弹将一颗美国多功能情报卫星在其即将坠入大气层前击落。


The US now uses an unmanned miniature version of the space shuttle to practice “proximity operations”: approaching other satellites without harming them.	现在，美国使用微型无人航天器进行“逼近操作”（proximity operations）：接近其他卫星而不引起它们的主意。


Russia has launched three satellites for proximity operations.	俄罗斯发射了三颗卫星进行逼近操作。


Chinese ASAT tests have succeeded to the point that they are now designed to miss their targets.	中国ASAT试验也取得了成功，可以故意错失目标。


The third round of military competition in space remains less intense than the first two, but it is gathering momentum.	第三轮军事空间竞赛仍然不像前两次那样激烈，但正在朝这个方向发展。


The question is how to defuse it.	问题是如何遏制它。


Russia and China support an international treaty to prevent the weaponization of space.	俄罗斯和中国支持用国际条约防止空间武器化。


But their proposal has significant drawbacks, including the same old difficulty of agreeing on what constitutes a space weapon.	但它们的方案存在重大弊端，包括定义什么构成空间武器这一旧难点。


Most space-related capabilities, like lasers and proximity operations, have both peaceful and military applications.	大部分与空间相关的能力，比如激光和逼近操作，都可以用于和平和军事用途。


Monitoring and verifying compliance is another challenge.	监督和证明合规性是另一个挑战。


And even if provisions could be agreed, ratifying and implementing a treaty could take decades, as with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.	而即使条约条款能够形成一致，批准和实施条约也可能需要几十年，全面禁止核试验条约就是如此。


A simpler – though by no means easy – approach would be to agree on a code of conduct for space.	更简单——但并不更容易——的方法是建立一个空间行为准则。


The good news is that the framework for such an international code – conceptualized by the Stimson Center (which I co-founded) in 2002 – already exists, drafted in detail by the European Union.	好消息是这一国际准则的框架——由我参与联合创建的史汀生中心（Stimson Center）将其概念化——已经存在，欧盟给出了详细草案。


The bad news is that China and Russia, along with many developing countries, have voiced strong objections.	坏消息是中国和俄罗斯，以及许多发展中国家——强烈反对这一框架。


Developing countries disapprove of the EU’s attempt to avoid a UN-based drafting process.	发展中国家不赞成欧盟试图避免基于联合国的起草过程。


And they have balked at the draft code’s affirmation of a national and collective right to self-defense – a right enshrined in the UN Charter.	它们也不满于规则草案对国家和集体自卫权的推定——这一权利写入了联合国宪章。


China and Russia would like to limit the code to civilian and commercial space activities – even though military space programs are the crux of the problem and the main impetus for developing a code in the first place.	中国和俄罗斯希望该规则只限于民用和商用空间活动——虽然军事空间计划才是问题的核心，也是一开始制定规则的动力。


The draft treaty supported by Russia and China would constrain only weapons in space, not their ground-based ASAT programs.	俄罗斯和中国所支持的条约草案只约束空间中的武器，不约束它们的地基ASAT计划。


Russia and China are clearly not ready to curtail their ASAT capabilities; and the US is ramping up its own.	俄罗斯和中国显然不准备削减它们的ASAT能力； 而美国也在建设自己的能力。


Transparency and confidence-building measures can help.	透明度和信心建设措施有所助益。


So can guidelines for the sustainable use of outer space, which may emerge from the UN’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.	可持续外太空使用指引亦然，它可能将由联合国和平利用外太空委员会制定。


But the third round of space competition will not end until all major powers are ready to endorse a code of conduct for responsible behavior.	但在所有大国都愿意支持负责任行为的规范之前，第三轮空间竞赛不会结束。


Space, South Africa’s New Frontier	太空，南非的新边境


JOHANNESBURG – By hosting the World Cup this month, South Africa is set to defy Africa’s image as too poor and trouble-ridden to stage one of the world’s great spectacles.	约翰内斯堡——通过本月举办世界杯赛，南非注定要挑战非洲积贫积弱、麻烦缠身、与全球盛事无缘的形象。


With its pursuit of research into the farthest reaches of the universe – deep space – South Africa hopes to provide further proof that Africans can compete at all levels.	凭借对宇宙最边缘部分外太空的研究，南非希望进一步向世人证明非洲人有能力在所有领域参与竞争。


South Africa is investing heavily to join the world’s leaders in space research.	南非为追赶世界太空研究领域的领先国家不惜投入巨资。


The government is investing in “micro” satellites, building on its existing SumbandilaSat platform.	政府在原有“领路者”（SumbandilaSat ）平台的基础上投资于“微型”卫星的研究。


It is also leading the African effort to host what is widely described as potentially the world’s largest scientific instrument, the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) radio telescope.	在政府领导下，南非还力争修建被普遍认定为世界最大科学仪器的平方公里天线阵（SKA）射电望远镜。


The SKA, whose massive collection of dishes would stretch across nine African countries, is a next-generation telescope that will examine gas clouds in the early universe at 100 times the power of the most powerful existing radio telescope, the Very Large Array in New Mexico.	平方公里天线阵所属的碟形天线遍布非洲9个国家，是观察能力超过现有射电望远镜百倍的研究早期宇宙气云结构的新一代望远镜系统。


An international selection committee has already eliminated China and South America, leaving only Australia and Africa – both clear choices for geographic reasons – in the running.	国际遴选委员会已经排除了中国和南美，只剩下澳大利亚和非洲参与竞争，以上两地皆因地理原因能够确保视野更清晰。


To lend credibility to its bid to host the SKA, in 2006 South Africa’s government committed $250 million to build an array of radio dishes within its own borders as a precursor to the SKA.	为显示修建平方公里天线阵的诚意，南非政府于2006年投资2. 5亿美元在境内建造无线天线阵，该天线阵可作为平方公里天线阵的前身。


Seven of the planned 80 dishes in the network have been built.	天线阵网络80副天线中的7副已经修建完成。


Now people are taking South Africa seriously as a player in space research.	现在人们已经开始认真对待南非参与太空研究的决心。


Today, the country is believed to have about 60 working astronomers, more than half of all the astronomers working in Africa.	目前，据信约有60名天文学家居住在南非境内，占非洲所有天文学家的半数还多。


“South Africa is the jewel of African astronomy,” says Charles McGruder, a professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at Western Kentucky University.	西肯塔基大学物理与天文学系教授查尔斯·麦格德说，“南非是非洲天文领域的一颗明珠。 ”


In a country that is deeply divided economically, “What on earth is the benefit to the poor and the downtrodden of deep space research?” asks physicist Harold Annegarn, a professor at the University of Johannesburg.	在南非这样经济分化严重的国家，“外太空研究究竟能为穷人和受压迫者带来哪些好处？ ”约翰内斯堡大学教授兼物理学家哈罗德·安纳卡恩提出疑问。


“The answer,” he says, “is partly that by supporting a thriving top-level intellectual community, we can train our next generation of intellectuals.”	“部分原因在于在为蓬勃向上的顶尖学术人才提供支持的同时，我们能够为下一代知识分子提供培训。 ”


McGruder, who works closely with African astronomers, agrees that a space program for the region is critical to raising the profile of careers in science and engineering in a part of the world where the most educated people still go into finance or management.	与非洲天文学家密切合作的麦格德认为在绝大多数受教育人士仍然进入金融或管理行业的今天，启动太空计划对于提升科技岗位在非洲地区的总体形象可以起到至关重要的作用。


“Success in space research can capture the imaginations of a whole generation of young Africans,” he says.	他说，“太空研究领域的成功可以发挥整整一代年轻非洲人的想象力。


“By putting Africa on the world’s ‘science map,’ more brainy Africans will be encouraged to stay at home, because recognition for their talents will come.”	” “通过让非洲登上世界‘科技版图’，更多有头脑的非洲人将会选择留在国内，因为他们总有一天可以得到对自己才能的认可。 ”


Experts on economic development in Africa naturally concentrate on basic technologies: clean water, energy for cooking, electricity, and improved roads.	非洲经济发展专家一般对基础技术领域更加关注：包括清洁饮水、烹饪能源、电力及改善道路系统。


Even in South Africa, the wealthiest country on the continent, millions of people lack basics.	即便在这块大陆上最富有的国家南非，仍然有成百上千万人基本的生存条件无法得到满足。


But space research is expected to yield practical benefits.	但太空研究预计也将带来现实的好处。


One payoff can come from Africans building distinctive satellite instruments, and thus spawning a globally competitive industry.	实际好处之一可能来自建造有特色的卫星设备，这或许可以奠定这一全球竞争性行业在南非的基础。


Better ways to cope with climate change also can come from space research.	太空研究或许还可以找到应对气候变化的更好办法。


Farmers, for example, might choose crops and growing patterns based on knowledge from earth observations.	比方说农民可以根据地球观测的基本知识来选择作物和种植模式。


And, because space exploration requires communications and control over vast distances, some of the applications could also enhance South Africa’s lucrative mining sector; after all, controlling machines under the ground is similar to doing so in deep space.	还因为太空探索需要远距离通讯及控制技术，相关技术的某些应用可能进一步实现南非利润丰厚的采矿业的升级换代； 归根结底，在地下和在外太空控制机器设备有许多相似之处。


To be sure, South Africa’s push to join the world’s technological leaders is not limited to space research.	可以肯定的是，南非加入世界技术领先国家的努力不仅局限在太空研究领域。


The country is also home to thriving communities of scientists and engineers specializing in nuclear and solar energy, software encryption, coal-to-oil conversion and even electric cars.	这里还聚集着大批核能及太阳能、软件加密、煤制油项目甚至是电动汽车领域生机勃勃的科学家和工程师。


No other African country comes close to matching South Africa in even a single area of research and development.	其他非洲国家即使在单一技术领域的研发中也根本无法与南非相媲美。


Based on published research papers, the country accounts for 64% of all research undertaken in Africa.	发表研究论文的统计显示，南非占非洲所有研究项目的64%。


“There are a lot of surprising innovations coming from South Africa,” says David Kaplan, an economist at the University of Cape Town who specializes in tracking technological change. “But the gap between esoteric knowledge and economic applications remains large.”	开普敦大学关注技术变革的经济学家大卫·卡普兰强调，“南非涌现了许多令人赞叹的创新成果，但是在深奥理论和实际经济应用之间的差距仍然很大。


Closing that gap should happen more quickly with the help of the international community.	如果有了国际社会的帮助，弥合上述差距的步伐将会加快。


Not only does the world’s largest telescope network “belong in Africa,” says Sune Svanberg, a physicist at Lund University in Sweden. “Good forces also can join with the African scientist to create many small-scale projects in the region that are realistic to operate.”	瑞典伦德大学物理学家桑·斯万伯格说，不仅仅全世界最大的望远镜阵列“归属于非洲， 积极的力量还将与非洲科学家携手，创造出众多对于非洲地区具有现实意义的小型项目。


Spain Can Still Rise	西班牙也在崛起


MADRID – July will enter Spanish history as having started on a tremendous high, spurred by Spain’s recent triumph in the 2012 Euro Soccer Championship.	马德里—7月将被写入西班牙历史。 它以极高的高度开端——西班牙队在2012年欧洲足球锦标赛中问鼎。


But all signs indicate that the month will end in doubt and pessimism.	但所有迹象表明，7月份会在质疑和悲观中结束。


The image of joyful crowds and Spanish flags draped from cars and windows has given way to that of throngs of demonstrators holding banners protesting the government’s latest austerity measures.	月初万众欢呼、汽车和窗台中伸出的西班牙国旗的景象已经让位给了高举反对政府紧缩政策标语的示威群众。


With one in four Spaniards unemployed and Spain’s sovereign bonds rated just above junk status, Spain seems to be on the edge of falling into the abyss.	每四个西班牙人中就有一个找不到工作，西班牙主权债务评级只比垃圾债券略高——西班牙正在悬崖边缘苦苦挣扎。


But very few analyses delve beneath the surface of immediate figures and assess the core of Spain’s strengths and weaknesses.	但是，很少有分析能透过当前数字表象评估西班牙的优势和劣势。


Observers today tend to forget that, until the early 1980’s, Spain qualified as a developing country, according to World Bank standards.	如今，观察家们总是忘记，根据世界银行的标准，西班牙在20世纪80年代初才摆脱发展中国家的地位。


Indeed, together with Singapore and Ireland, Spain represents the biggest economic success story of the last quarter of the twentieth century.	事实上，西班牙和新加坡、爱尔兰一起，代表了20世纪最后25年中最灿烂的经济成功。


And it should not be forgotten that, together with an astounding leap in GDP per capita (from $7,284 in 1980 to over $30,000 in 2010), Spain, under King Juan Carlos’s invaluable leadership, carried out a successful transition to democracy and joined the European Union.	除了人均GDP令人瞩目的大跳跃（从1980年的7284美元升至2010年的30000多美元），西班牙还在卡洛斯国王的英明领导下成功实现了民主转型并加入了欧盟。


Such feats always entail important asymmetries and political pacts; though fundamental to the post-Franco transition, when Spaniards were still fearful of reviving the deep divisions of the civil war, they plague the country to this day.	这样的奇迹免不了会包含重大不对称性和政治协议，直到今天仍困扰着西班牙，尽管它们在后弗朗哥时代的转型（西班牙人非常担忧祖国会回到内战时期的大分裂状态）中起到了基础性作用。


Furthermore, Spain’s success, coupled with lax credit policy in the eurozone, resulted in a financial bubble whose collapse exposed structural challenges.	此外，西班牙的成功与欧元区的宽松信用政策不无关系，它们都是金融泡沫的产物，泡沫破裂后，结构性问题便浮出了水面。


As a result, Spain now requires a concerted effort from its citizens, one rooted in confidence in their achievements of the last 30 years.	如今，西班牙需要它的人民同心协力，而同心协力的基础，就在过去30年成就所带来的信心。


One area in grave need of reform is the labor market.	一个急需改革的领域是劳动力市场。


The foundations of Spain’s current labor laws date to 1938, when the civil war was tearing the country apart.	现行劳动法出台于1938年，当时西班牙正因内战而饱受分裂折磨。


The system created by Generalissimo Francisco Franco following his victory offered workers job security and strong collective-bargaining rights, which helped to maintain social stability in the absence of democracy.	在弗朗哥获胜后所建立的制度中，工人获得了职位保障和强大的集体讨价还价权，这有利于没有民主时期的社会稳定。


Paradoxically, the bulk of this platform has survived as a banner of the left.	矛盾的是，该制度的主体部分成为了左派的口号。


Changing it is, therefore, not only vital for regaining competitiveness; it is also a critical test of the maturity of Spain’s democracy.	因此，改变这一制度不仅事关重获竞争力，也堪称考验西班牙民主成熟度的试金石。


The current system underpins Spain’s soaring unemployment rate.	现行制度是西班牙失业率飙升的推动器。


Since the second half of the 1980’s, when net emigration abruptly reversed, Spain has experienced high levels of structural unemployment, even when annual growth was above 4%, in part owing to the high quality and generous provisions of Spain’s social-welfare system, which was also consolidated in the post-Franco period.	20世纪80年代后期以来，西班牙净移民数量出现了猛增，经历了高水平的结构性失业，即使在年经济增长超过4%也是如此，这部分是因为同是在后弗朗哥时代形成的西班牙社会福利制度质量高、福利好。


As of 2011, an estimated 5.7 million residents (12% of the population) were immigrants – over a million more than in the significantly larger United Kingdom (with a population of 62 million).	2011年，据估计有570万西班牙居民（相当于总人口的12%）为移民，比规模大得多的英国（人口数6200万）还多出100万有余。


International observers often also target the need to reduce public employment.	国际观察者的另一个目标是减少公共部门就业。


Here, too, the problem is a direct consequence of the political agreements reached at the beginning of the transition to democracy.	在这方面，问题同样是形成于民主转型之初的政治协议的直接结果。


The public sector underwent rapid and radical decentralization as part of the transition, owing to the creation of the country’s quasi-federal governmental structure, which created significant overlap and duplication, both in terms of effort and resources.	由于西班牙形成了准联邦制的政府结构，从而造成了工作和资源的双重重叠和浪费，因此，作为转型的一部分，公共部门经历了快速、彻底的分散化。


Meanwhile, it distorts reality to view Spain’s entire banking sector through the prism of the cajas, the savings banks that are the soft underbelly of the Spanish financial system.	与此同时，通过储蓄银行（cajas）认识整个西班牙银行业扭曲了显示。 储蓄银行只代表了西班牙金融系统的中低端。


Indeed, Santander and BBVA rank among today’s most successful international banks.	事实上，桑坦德银行和西班牙对外银行（BBVA）都是当今数一数二的成功国际银行。


Nevertheless, it was the cajas that concentrated the risk associated with the housing bubble, and whose governance presented the worst face of public ownership.	尽管如此，储蓄银行集中着房地产泡沫相关风险，其治理状况体现了公共所有权最糟糕的一面。


The cajas had neither the corporate governance structures nor the management skills to withstand the crisis.	��蓄银行既没有公司治理结构，也没有抵御危机的管理技巧。


Moreover, Spanish schools trail behind in the international ranking system; the relatively effective Franco-era vocational training system became collateral damage in the transition; and the low number of patent applications reveals severe shortcomings in research and development.	此外，西班牙院校在国际院校排名中也大大落后； 相对效率较高的弗朗哥时期职业培训制度成了转型附带伤害的受害者；


This hindrance to competitiveness is also linked to an underperforming, state-regulated higher-education system, with no Spanish public university among the top 150 ranked in the 2012 Academic Ranking of World Universities, whereas three private institutions (IE, IESE, and ESADE) are all ranked among the top business schools worldwide.	而专利申请为数甚少的事实表明西班牙在研发方面严重不足。 这一竞争力障碍也与绩效低下的国营高等教育制度有关，在2011年世界大学学术排名（Academic Ranking of World Universities）中，没有一家西班牙公立大学进入前150名，而三家私人学府（IE、IESE和ESADE）均在世界商学院排名中名列前茅。


Today, Spain has some of Europe’s best infrastructure, including high-speed trains, high-tech airports, fast highways, and top-notch green-energy networks.	如今，西班牙拥有欧洲最好的基础设施——高铁、高科技机场、高速公路、绿色能源网无不如此。


Its entrepreneurial class has pioneered business ventures, such as Inditex and Mercadona, whose models are case studies in the best business schools.	西班牙企业家群体充当着创业先锋，Inditex和Mercadona的模式已被为顶级商学院用来作为案例研究。


Spain counts a fair number of successful, cutting-edge multinationals, from Ferrovial and FCC in public works to Iberdrola and Abengoa in the energy sector.	西班牙拥有相当多的成功、前沿的跨国公司，比如公共工程领域的Ferrovial和FCC以及能源部门的Iberdrola和Abengoa。


It is also important to emphasize the political stability – and public maturity – that allowed aparty whose program called for rationalization of spending to win an absolute majority in the parliamentary election held six months ago.	同样重要的还有西班牙的政治稳定性（以及公众成熟度），正因如此，呼吁支出理性化的党派才能在半年前的议会选举中赢得绝对多数。


Spain’s soccer victory was not a fluke but the culmination of a long evolution to emerge as a winning machine from its Francoist furia española past.	西班牙足球队的成功不是偶然，而是西班牙从弗朗哥主义“西班牙狂怒”（furia española）的过去中浴火重生、走向胜利的长期演化过程的顶峰。


After Spain’s victories at Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, the national team demonstrated once again how diversity can coalesce into a winning formula through identification with a common goal.  	自2008年欧锦赛和2010年世界杯之后，西班牙国家队再一次表明，多样化完全可以通过为共同目标奋斗的认同感而凝聚为胜利方程式。


Spaniards in general, and particularly their political leaders, must rediscover what it takes to succeed.	西班牙人民，特别是西班牙领导人，应该从西班牙国家队在2012年欧锦赛的胜利中得到启发，重新发现成功的秘诀。


Dealt a difficult hand, Spain can overcome its critical situation only through collective hard work, responsibility, respect, and loyalty, thereby ensuring its standing in Europe and beyond.	西班牙所面临的问题不简单，只有通过集体努力工作、责任心、尊重和忠诚才能克服当前的危机，在欧洲和世界舞台上崛起。


Spanish Leadership for Europe’s Roma	西班牙领导欧洲罗姆人解放运动


NEW YORK – Continued discrimination against Roma in Europe not only violates human dignity, but is a major social problem crippling the development of Eastern European countries with large Roma populations.	纽约 —— 欧洲国家对罗姆人的长期歧视政策不仅违反人类尊严，而且给拥有大量罗姆裔人口的东欧国家造成了严重的社会问题，甚至威胁到东欧国家的发展。


Spain, which has been more successful in dealing with its Roma problem than other countries, can take the lead this month as it assumes the European Union presidency.	西班牙在如何处理罗姆人问题方面比其他国家更为成功，它可以借本月担任欧盟轮值主席的契机在这方面发挥领导作用。


Up to 12 million Roma live in Europe today, primarily in the East.	今天欧洲的罗姆裔人口为 1 ， 200 万，他们主要居住在东欧。


Despite the region’s overall economic growth over the past two decades, life for many Roma is worse now than ever.	尽管东欧地区 20 年来经济发展迅速，但许多罗姆人的生活却比过去更加糟糕。


During the communist era, Roma received jobs and housing.	在共产党执政时代，罗姆人有工作，有住房。


But the heavy industries in which many were employed have now closed, and unemployment is widespread.	但许多罗姆人就业的重工业现在已经倒闭，导致大量罗姆人失业。


Many Roma live in deplorable conditions unworthy of modern Europe.	许多罗姆人都生活在与现代欧洲根本不相称的糟糕透顶的环境中。


These economic hardships are deepened by social tension.	社会关系的紧张进一步加剧了经济困难。


The majority population is very hostile towards Roma, and discrimination against them occurs at every level.	大多数人对罗姆人非常敌视，对罗姆人的歧视几乎随处可见。


For example, Roma children are often automatically put into classes for the mentally disabled, simply because they are Roma.	比方说，罗姆人的子女经常因为他们的罗姆裔身份而被无故分配到弱智学校。


Despite court rulings ordering reform, Roma are regularly denied equal access to housing, education, and healthcare, creating a vicious cycle of poverty and marginalization.	尽管法庭判决要求改革，但罗姆人经常被剥夺平等的住房、教育和医疗保健权，从而形成了贫困和边缘化的恶性循环。


Reality and stereotype reinforce each other in a reflexive fashion.	现实状况和陈规陋习相互呼应，相互增强。


The EU is slowly realizing that it has a major social problem on its hands. Denied opportunities in the East, many Roma have moved to Western Europe, fueling a new wave of hostility.	欧盟正慢慢意识到这一重大的社会问题。 由于在东欧得不到机会，许多罗姆人已经向西欧移民，并由此点燃了新一轮敌对浪潮。


In Italy, the Berlusconi government’s treatment of Roma settlements – destroying homes and fingerprinting Roma based solely on their ethnicity – blatantly violated human rights.	意大利贝卢斯科尼政府对待罗姆人定居点的手段 —— 拆毁他们的住房，只因为他们是罗姆族裔就要求其留下指纹 —— 公然践踏了人权。


This prompted the EU to create the new position of Fundamental Rights Commissioner, with confirmation hearings set to begin in January; In the meantime, violations continue.	这促使欧盟设立了一个基本权利专员的新职位，任命听证会将于明年 1 月召开，但与此同时，违反人权的行为仍然有增无减。


On a positive note, the Decade of Roma Inclusion, established in 2005, is receiving strong support from the structural funds administered by the European Commission and is making some inroads.	从积极的方面看，始于 2005 年的“罗姆人融入社会十年”项目得到欧洲委员会结构基金的强劲支持，并且正在取得进展。


Yet this is not enough to reverse a rising tide of violence and discrimination, compounded by the recent economic recession.	但单凭这些来逆转暴力和歧视的潮流还远远不够，不久前的经济衰退使这股潮流更加明显。


What is needed now is a comprehensive European strategy to address Roma issues across borders.	当务之急是制定解决跨境罗姆人问题的全面的欧洲战略。


This strategy must address both intolerable living conditions for Roma and the hostile stereotypes that prevail within majority populations, because they mutually reinforce each other.	该战略必须在改善罗姆人令人无法容忍的生存条件的同时，改变主流人口中盛行的敌视罗姆人的陈旧观念，因为这两者起到相互巩固、相互增强的作用。


This is not only a human rights issue, but also an economic one. Following current demographic trends, by 2040, Roma will comprise roughly 40% of Hungary’s working-age population.	这并不单纯是人权问题，同样也是经济问题。 照目前的人口统计趋势发展下去，到 2040 年，罗姆人将占到匈牙利就业适龄人口的约 40% 。


Statistics are similar for neighboring countries.	临近国家的统计数据也大体相同。


Unless the Roma are well educated and socially integrated – in stark contrast to today’s reality – these countries’ economic future is bleak.	因此除非罗姆人受到良好的教育并被社会所接纳 —— 这与今天的现实情况形成了鲜明的对比 —— 否则这些国家的经济前景只能是一片暗淡。


The key to success is the education of a new generation of Roma who do not seek to assimilate into the general population, but deliberately retain their identity as Roma. Educated, successful Roma will shatter the prevailing negative stereotypes by their very existence.	成功的关键在于教育新一代罗姆人不要力求被主流人口所接纳，而要有意地保持自己的罗姆人身份。 受过教育的成功的罗姆人将凭借自身的存在打破普遍存在的负面的陈旧观念。


I speak with some authority on this subject.	我曾经就此问题与政府展开过讨论。


My foundation network has made the education of Roma a priority since its inception in Hungary in 1984, and across the rest of Eastern Europe since 1989. These efforts have produced a small, well-educated Roma elite who are now making an important contribution to the emancipation of Roma.	我的基金网络自从 1984 年在匈牙利建立、并在 1989 年将业务拓展到欧洲其他地区后就一直将罗姆人的教育问题��作重中之重。 我们的努力已经成就了为数不多但受过良好教育的罗姆人精英，这些罗姆人正在为罗姆民族的解放做出重要贡献。


These leaders have blazed a trail for future advocates, but there are far too few of them.	这些领导者已经为未来的拥护者开辟了道路，但他们的数量还远远不够。


In conjunction with the launch of the Decade of Roma Inclusion in 2005, my foundation network formed an alliance with the World Bank and transferred its Roma educational programs to a newly established Roma Education Fund.	我所建立的基金网与 2005 年启动的“罗姆人融入社会十年”项目合作，与世界银行结成联盟，将世行的罗姆人教育计划转移到新近成立的罗姆人教育基金之中。


Last year, the Fund directly assisted 30,000 Roma children and 800 university students.	去年，该基金直接资助了 30 ， 000 名罗姆儿童和 800 名大学生。


It also provided invaluable support to member countries’ public education systems to strengthen Roma inclusion.	它还为成员国的公共教育系统提供了宝贵的支持，以使其更好地支持罗姆人的融入。


The Fund plans to double its activities in the next five years, but, again, this is not enough.	该基金计划在未来五年内实现资助翻番，但这仍然远远不够。


Given the need, it ought to grow ten-fold.	考虑到罗姆人的实际需求，资助规模应该达到现在的十倍。


The scale of this challenge demands a comprehensive, institutional response from the EU that goes well beyond the Decade and the capacity of my foundations.	上述挑战的规模需要欧盟制定远比“十年”计划和我所建立的基金更全面、也更制度化的对策。


While the European Roma Platform launched in 2009 paid lip service to Roma issues, it did not go far enough.	尽管 2009 年启动的欧洲罗姆人平台在口头上对罗姆人表示了支持，但它所做的工作还远远不够。


Europe must develop a long-term strategy tied to programs and monitoring mechanisms that will deliver real change on the ground.	欧洲必须制定与计划和监管机制相联系的长期战略，才能在罗姆人问题上带来真正的变化。


Spain can be justly proud of the way it has dealt with its own Roma minority.	西班牙有权因对待罗姆少数族裔的方式而感到骄傲。


I hope that the Spanish EU Presidency will build on this experience to champion the launch of a comprehensive European Roma strategy.	我希望在西班牙担任欧盟轮值主席后，将利用已经取得的经验，引导开创一套综合的欧洲罗姆人战略。


If Spain leads the way, all of Europe will ultimately reap the benefits.	如果西班牙能发挥领导作用，那么将惠及到欧洲的所有国家。


Speculators at the Pumps	油价中的投机者


WASHINTGTON, DC – Until a few weeks ago, while oil prices were surging, debate raged about the relative roles of economic fundamentals and speculation in boosting oil prices.	华盛顿特区- 直到几个星期之前，在油价飙升的时候，人们还在激励争论在推升油价中经济基本面和投机的相对作用。


Although oil prices have now fallen back from their peak, that debate must not be forgotten, for it has profound policy implications that government officials would be derelict to ignore.	虽然油价现在已经从其最高点回落，但是，这样的争论不应该被忘记，因为它具有政府官员可能会不负责任地忽略的深刻的政策含义。


Of course, if higher prices are due to fundamentals, oil markets are working as they should.	当然，如果高油价是由于经济基本面引起的，石油市场就会按照它自身的方式运行。


But if they are due to speculation, then policymakers speculators must act to rein in behavior that has imposed huge and needless costs on the global economy. And, when the evidence is confronted, it points to speculation as a culprit.	但是，如果高油价是由于投机引起的，那么，政策制定者就必须行动起来制止给全球经济施加了巨大且不必要的成本的行为，并且，当面对证据的时候，它也会指出投机是罪魁祸首。


Whereas many oil market participants have blamed speculation, most economists defend how oil markets have performed and point to economic fundamentals.	尽管许多石油市场参与者都谴责市场里的投机，然而，大部分经济学家都为石油市场的表现辩护并指出经济基本面才是造成问题的原因。


One argument that economists use is that higher prices are due to the weak dollar.	经济学家使用的一个论点是高油价是因为美元的疲软。


Because oil is priced in dollars, a weak dollar makes oil cheaper to users in other countries, which increases global demand.	因为石油是用美元定价的，疲软的美元使石油对其他国家的消费者来说便宜了，从而增加了全球对石油的需求。


A second argument is that higher oil prices are due to lower interest rates and anticipations of higher long-term prices. That supposedly reduced supply by encouraging producers to store oil in the ground and pump it later.	第二个论点是高油价是因为低利率以及对油价长期走高的预期，从而推测出它刺激石油生产商将石油储藏在地下日后开采，从而降低了产量 。


A third argument is that if speculation were to blame for price increases, there should have been an increase in oil inventories, because speculators do not consume oil but instead store it for later sale.	第三个论点是如果投机应该对价格上涨负责，那么石油库存也应该有增加，因为投机者并不消费石油而是将其储存起来日后销售。


Since there has been no rise in inventories, there has been no speculation.	既然石油库存没有增加，那么就没有投机。


All three arguments are weak.	三个论点都不是很有说服力。


The price of oil has risen far more than the dollar has fallen.	石油价格的上涨比美元下跌的幅度大得多。


That means that oil prices have increased in other countries, which should have reduced, not increased, demand.	这意味着油价在其他国家也上涨了，而这应该是减少石油需求量，而不是增加需求量。


Moreover, it is high oil prices that weakened the dollar, not vice versa. This is because high oil prices raised inflation in the United States, worsened the US trade deficit, and increased the likelihood of a US recession by acting as a tax on consumer spending.	而且，是高油价使美元走软，而不是相反，因为高油价提高了美国的通货膨胀率，增加了美国的贸易赤字，并且通过作为消费开支税的方式增加了美国衰退的可能性。


Nor have there been any reports of unusual production cutbacks – the linchpin of the second argument.	也没有任何异常减产的报告——这是第二个论点的关键。


Indeed, the spike in oil prices actually gives independent producers an incentive to boost production.	事实上，油价的飙升实际上使独立的生产商更有动力增加产量。


The last time real oil prices reached current levels was 1980, which shows that hoarding oil in the ground can be bad business.	上一次实际油价到达当前的水平是在1980年，它证明将石油储藏在地下是一笔不划算的买卖。


OPEC also has a strong interest in maintaining production. It wants to keep prices lower to maintain the global economy’s oil addiction and deter technological substitution of alternative energy sources.	OPEC也在维持产量上存在很大的利益，它想保持石油较低的价格以此来维持全球经济对石油的依赖并阻止替代能源的技术代替。


Finally, the storage argument fails to recognize different types of inventory.	最后，库存的论点没能区分不同种类的库存。


Thus, record-high speculative prices have likely caused bunker traders to release inventory, but those releases may have been purchased by speculators who are now active lessees of commercial storage capacity.	因此，破纪录的投机价格可能已经致使燃油交易商释放库存，但是这些库存释放可能已经被那些现在是活跃的商业库存能力承租人的投机者购买。


The implication is that speculators can drive up prices and increase their inventory holdings even as total commercial inventories remain little changed.	这意味着即使在总商业库存没有很大的变化的情况下，投机者也能抬高价格并增加他们的库存保有量。


Additionally, oil market speculation may have induced “echo speculation,” whereby ultimate users buy refined products in advance to protect against future price hikes.	. 而且，石油市场投机可能已经引起“附和投机”，借此最终用户提前购买精炼石油来抵御将来油价的上涨。


They then take delivery on their premises so that overall refined inventories rise, but that increase is not part of reported commercial inventories.	然后，他们在其所在地接受精炼油，从而导致精炼石油库存的总体增加，但是这种增加不是报告的商业库存的一部分。


Proving that speculation is responsible for higher prices is always difficult, because it tends to occur against a background of strong fundamentals.	证明投机应该对高油价负责总是很困难，因为它的发生和强劲的经济基本面背景相左。


However, there is considerable evidence that strongly indicates rampant speculation in today’s oil markets.	但是，有大量的证据强烈显示在当今的石油市场上存在着猖獗的投机。


One key sign is the documented change in the character of oil trading, with speculators (i.e., financial institutions and hedge funds) now accounting for 70% of trades, up from 37% seven years ago.	一个重要的迹象是有文件证明的石油交易性质的变化，投机者（例如，金融机构和对冲基金）现在占交易的70%，而七年前只有37％。


With regard to market fundamentals, there have been no changes in demand and supply conditions that explain the scale of the unanticipated jump in oil prices.	关于市场基本面，在需求和供应条件中没有明显的变化能够解释未曾预料到的油价上涨幅度。


Moreover, the actual behavior of oil prices is consistent with speculation.	而且，油价的实际表现和投机行为一致。


In June, oil prices leapt by $11 in one day, and in July they fell back by $15 in three days.	在六月份，油价在一天内上涨了11美元，在七月份又在三天内下跌了15美元。


Such volatility does not fit a fundamentals-driven market.	这样的波动不符合由基本面驱动的市场。


Despite the oil market’s size, speculation can move prices because of the inelasticity of demand and supply.	尽管石油市场的规模很大，但是由于需求和供应的刚性，投机就可以改变价格。


Oil demand is slow to change because of behavioral inertia and fixed technology, while adjusting production takes time.	因为行为惯性以及技术限制，同时调整石油产量也需要时间，所以石油需求的变化很慢。


These features make the oil market vulnerable to speculation.	这些特征使石油市场易于受到投机的影响。


Such speculative purchases may barely register in inventories, because the purchases are small compared to the overall market, and because of the global storage system’s many margins of accommodation.	因为投机性的购买和整个市场相比是很小的，而且全球的石油库存体系有许多需要调适的空白地带，这样的购买几乎不可能登记在库存中。


As a result, speculatively driven high prices can persist for a considerable time before economic fundamentals bring them down, as finally seems to be happening.	因此，在基本面使油价回落——正像最终发生的那样——之前，由投机驱动的高油价能够持续一个相当长的时间。


With prices falling, the imperative to act inevitably tends to recede.	伴随着油价的回落，行动的紧迫性不可避免地逐渐减弱了。


That is the nature of the behavioral response to crisis and why a bad status quo can persist.	这是对危机行为反应的本质，也是糟糕的现状得以持续的原因。


But leaving the system unchanged will maintain the global economy’s vulnerability to future bouts of speculation that we cannot afford.	但是，对现有的制度不做任何改变，会使全球经济继续易于受到我们无法承担的未来的投机冲击的影响。


Just consider how the current bout has raised global inflation, lowered incomes of the global poor, weakened the dollar, deepened the US trade deficit, aggravated global financial instability, and increased the likelihood of a global recession.	仅仅想想当前的冲击是怎样提高全球的通货膨胀，降低全球穷人的收入，使美元走软，增加美国的贸易赤字，加重全球金融不稳定并增加了全球衰退的可能性这样一系列情况，就可以知道问题的严重性。


That is an overwhelming indictment that merits urgent policy action.	这需要政策紧急作出反应。


A Speech of Hope for Greece	希腊的希望的演讲


ATHENS – On September 6, 1946 US Secretary of State James F. Byrnes traveled to Stuttgart to deliver his historic “Speech of Hope.”	雅典—1946年9月6日，美国国务卿拜恩斯（James F. Byrnes）访问了斯图加特，做了历史性《希望的演讲》（Speech of Hope）。


Byrnes’ address marked America’s post-war change of heart vis-à-vis Germany and gave a fallen nation a chance to imagine recovery, growth, and a return to normalcy.	拜恩斯的演讲标志着美国战后对德立场的改变，给了这个堕落之国一个畅想复苏、增长和回归常态的机会。


Seven decades later, it is my country, Greece, that needs such a chance.	七十年后，我的祖国希腊也需要这样一个机会。


Until Byrnes’ “Speech of Hope,” the Allies were committed to converting “…Germany into a country primarily agricultural and pastoral in character.”	在拜恩斯发表《希望的演讲》之前，同盟国承诺将“德国改变为以农牧业为主的国家。 ”这是美国财政部长小摩根索（Henry Morgenthau Jr.


That was the express intention of the Morgenthau Plan, devised by US Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr. and co-signed by the United States and Britain two years earlier, in September 1944.	）在两年前，也就是1944年9月所提出、并由美国和英国联合签署的摩根索计划（Morgenthau Plan）明确表达的意愿。


Indeed, when the US, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom signed the Potsdam Agreement in August 1945, they agreed on the “reduction or destruction of all civilian heavy-industry with war potential” and on “restructuring the German economy toward agriculture and light industry.”	事实上，1945年8月，当美国、苏联和英国签署《波茨坦协议》时，它们同意“减少或摧毁所有有战争潜力的民用重工业”以及“以农业和轻工业为重点重组德国经济。


By 1946, the Allies had reduced Germany’s steel output to 75% of its pre-war level.	”1946年，同盟国将德国钢铁产量削减至战前水平的75%。


Car production plummeted to around 10% of pre-war output.	汽车产量骤降至战前水平的10%。


By the end of the decade, 706 industrial plants were destroyed.	20世纪40年代末，706家工业厂房被摧毁。


Byrnes’ speech signaled to the German people a reversal of that punitive de-industrialization drive.	拜恩斯的讲话让德国人民感到，惩罚性去工业化措施将被扭转。


Of course, Germany owes its post-war recovery and wealth to its people and their hard work, innovation, and devotion to a united, democratic Europe.	当然，德国的战后复苏和财富要归功于德国人民的艰苦工作、创新和致力于统一民主的欧洲。


But Germans could not have staged their magnificent post-war renaissance without the support signified by the “Speech of Hope.”	但如果没有《希望的演讲》所暗示的支持，德国人也无法取得令人瞩目的战后复兴。


Prior to Byrnes’ speech, and for a while afterwards, America’s allies were not keen to restore hope to the defeated Germans.	在拜恩斯演讲前以及此后的一段时间里，美国的盟国并不热衷于重塑战败德国的希望。


But once President Harry Truman’s administration decided to rehabilitate Germany, there was no turning back.	但从杜鲁门政府决定复兴德国开始，这一趋势就再也没有回头。


Its rebirth was underway, facilitated by the Marshall Plan, the US-sponsored 1953 debt write-down, and by the infusion of migrant labor from Italy, Yugoslavia, and Greece.	在美国赞助的1953年债券减记计划——马歇尔计划以及来自意大利、南斯拉夫和希腊的移民劳动力的助推下，德国开始重生。


Europe could not have united in peace and democracy without that sea change.	没有这一天翻地覆的变化，欧洲就不可能和平、民主地实现统一。


Someone had to put aside moralistic objections and look dispassionately at a country locked in a set of circumstances that would only reproduce discord and fragmentation across the continent.	有些人必须抛弃道德反对，冷静看待处于一系列只能给欧洲大陆带来不和与分裂的环境中的国家。


The US, having emerged from the war as the only creditor country, did precisely that.	二战后成为唯一债权国的美国正是这么做的。


Today, it is my country that is locked in such circumstances and in need of hope.	如今，处于这一系列环境中、需要希望的是我的祖国。


Moralistic objections to helping Greece abound, denying its people a shot at achieving their own renaissance.	针对援助希腊的道德反对呼声很高，否认希腊人民拥有实现自身复兴的权利。


Greater austerity is being demanded from an economy that is on its knees, owing to the heftiest dose of austerity any country has ever had to endure in peacetime.	希腊经受了和平时期任何国家都不曾经受过的大规模紧缩，而眼下正在被要求其不堪重负的经济采取更大规模的紧缩。


No offer of debt relief.	没有债券纾困计划。


No plan for boosting investment.	没有提振投资计划。


And certainly, as of yet, no “Speech of Hope” for this fallen people.	当然，也没有人为这个跌倒的民族发表《希望的演讲》。


It is the mark of ancient societies, like those of Germany and of Greece, that contemporary tribulations revive old fears and foment new discord.	当时的磨难让旧日的恐惧死灰复燃并煽动新的不和，这是古代社会的一大标志，比如德国和希腊。


So we must be careful.	因此我们必须小心以待。


Teenagers should never be told that, due to some “prodigal sin,” they deserve to be educated in cash-strapped schools and weighed down by mass unemployment, whether the scene is Germany in the late 1940s or Greece today.	我们决不能对少年说，由于某种“挥霍的罪恶”，他们必须在资金不足的学校中受教育，必须被大面积失业压得喘不过气。 不管是在20世纪40年代末的德国还是在今天的希腊。


As I write these lines, the Greek government is presenting the European Union with a set of proposals for deep reforms, debt management, and an investment plan to kick-start the economy.	当我写下这篇文字时，希腊政府正在向欧盟提出一系列深度改革、债务管理和重启经济的投资计划方案。


Greece is indeed ready and willing to enter into a compact with Europe that will eliminate the deformities that caused it to be the first domino to fall in 2010.	希腊真的已经做好了准备，也愿意与欧洲达成能够纠正导致2010年秋第一片多米诺骨牌倒下的问题的契约。


But, if Greece is to implement these reforms successfully, its citizens need a missing ingredient: Hope.	但是，如果希腊要想成功实施这些改革，希腊公民还需要一样失去的东西：希望。


A “Speech of Hope” for Greece would make all the difference now – not only for us, but also for our creditors, as our renaissance would terminate the default risk.	希腊的《希望的演讲》将给现状带来巨大的不同——不但是为了我们，也是为了我们的债权人，因为我们的复兴能够消除违约风险。


What should such a declaration include?	这个《希望的演讲》应该包含哪些内容？


Just as Byrnes’ address was short on detail but long on symbolism, a “Speech of Hope” for Greece does not have to be technical.	正如拜恩斯的演讲不纠结于细节而是强调象征意义，希腊的《希望的演讲》也不必具有很强的技术性。


It should simply mark a sea change, a break with the past five years of adding new loans on top of already unsustainable debt, conditional on further doses of punitive austerity.	它只需要标志一个巨变，一个与在已经不可持续的债务负担头上继续增加新贷款的过去的五年的决裂，并以未来惩罚性紧缩为条件。


Who should deliver it?	应该由谁来发表这一演讲？


In my mind, the speaker should be German Chancellor Angela Merkel, addressing an audience in Athens or Thessaloniki or any Greek city of her choice.	在我看来，应该由德国总理默克尔面向雅典或塞萨洛尼基或任何她所选择的希腊城市来做这个演讲。


She could use the opportunity to hint at a new approach to European integration, one that starts in the country that has suffered the most, a victim both of the eurozone’s faulty monetary design and of its society’s own failings.	她可以利用这次机会暗示新的欧洲一体化方针，这个方针从受害最深的国家、一个欧元区错误的货币设计和自身社会失败的双重受害国开始。


Hope was a force for good in post-war Europe, and it can be a force for positive transformation now.	在战后欧洲，希望是一种正能量，如今，它可以成为推动积极转型的力量。


A speech by Germany’s leader in a Greek city could go a long way toward delivering it.	由德国领导人在希腊城市发表演讲，这将极大地有利于实现这一转型。


Europe’s Procrustean Nightmare	欧洲的削足适履噩梦


MANNHEIM – The European Union’s policy of saving the euro at all costs is enough to guarantee the euro’s survival.	曼海姆—欧盟不惜一切代价拯救欧元的政策足以确保欧元的生存。


But is preserving the “one-size-fits-all” euro really worth sacrificing the eurozone’s competitiveness and, ultimately, European solidarity?	但为了保卫“一刀切”的欧元，真的值得牺牲欧元区的竞争力以及最终的欧洲团结吗？


It was the single market’s establishment in 1992 – not the euro’s introduction seven years later – that brought free trade, increased competitiveness, and new wealth to Europe.	1992年，单一市场成立，这——而不是七年后欧元的引入——为欧洲带来了自由贸易、竞争力增强和新财富。


In fact, the monetary union has become a political and economic nightmare, plagued by recession, record-high unemployment, social unrest, and rising distrust among member states.	事实上，货币联盟已经成为政治和经济梦魇，饱受衰退、创纪录的高失业、社会动荡和成员国之间日益增加的不信任的折磨。


But, even as politicians and economists run out of arguments in favor of the euro, few dare to challenge its fundamental structure, let alone propose alternatives.	但是，即便政客和经济学家在为欧元辩护方面早已词穷，也没人干预挑战其基本结构，更不用说给出替代方案了。


To escape the crisis, EU leaders must recognize the shortcomings of the eurozone’s one-dimensional framework, and develop a system better suited to managing a multi-faceted monetary union.	为了摆脱危机，欧盟领导人必须认识到欧元区的一维框架的短处，发展更适合治理多面货币联盟的系统。


Excessive centralization and harmonization are decimating the subsidiarity and competition needed to drive Europe’s economies, as the socialization of debt undermines weaker economies’ accountability.	过度集中和和谐大幅削弱了提振欧洲经济所需要的自主和竞争，而债务社会化破坏了较弱经济体的可问责性。


Furthermore, closing competitiveness gaps – essential to saving the euro – would not only require weaker economies to become more productive; strong economies, like Germany, would face pressure to become less efficient, diminishing Europe’s overall competitiveness vis-à-vis the rest of the world.	此外，弥合竞争力差距——拯救欧元的关键——不但需要较弱经济体提高生产率，德国的较强经济体也将面临效率降低的压力，从而降低了欧洲相对世界其他地区的总体竞争力。


At the same time, the euro crisis is inciting suspicion, antagonism, and new divisions in the eurozone.	与此同时，欧元危机煽动了欧元区的怀疑、对立和新分歧。


German-French relations, once the cornerstone of European integration, are at their lowest point in decades.	德法关系曾是欧洲一体化的基石，现在正处于几十年来的最低潮。


And unemployed young people in Greece, Portugal, and Spain routinely protest against “German dictates.”	希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙的失业青年也在示威反对“德国独裁”。


Likewise, the rift between the eurozone’s 17 members and the other ten EU countries is widening.	类似地，欧元区17国和其他10个欧盟国家之间的分歧也在加大。


Most notably, the United Kingdom is seeking to renegotiate the terms of its EU membership, with a referendum on the outcome that will determine whether it leaves the EU altogether.	最值得关注的是，英国正在寻求重新谈判其欧盟成员资格条件，将进行公投决定是否留在欧盟。


Historical precedents indicate that forcing disparate nations and states to unite under a single idea – whether communism in the Soviet Union, socialism in Yugoslavia, or a shared currency in the eurozone – generates centrifugal forces that can trigger the union’s collapse.	历史先例表明，强迫大相径庭的民族和国家在一种思想下统一起来——不管是苏联的共产主义，南斯拉夫的社会主义还是欧元区的共同货币——会产生离心作用，导致联盟崩溃。


A one-size-fits-all approach to integration is simply unsustainable.	一刀切的一体化办法是行不通的。


But the eurozone is not only replicating other unions’ mistakes; it is repeating its own.	但欧元区不但在重复其他联盟的错误，还在重复其自身的错误。


While 25 of the EU’s 27 governments agreed to the “fiscal compact,” aimed at imposing fiscal discipline on member states, there is no guarantee that governments will not violate the rules, just as they violated those established by the Maastricht Treaty.	欧盟27国政府的25个同意了旨在为成员国施加财政纪律的“财政契约”，没人保证政府不会像违反马约一样违反这一契约。


Similarly, although the one-size-fits-all monetary policy contributed to Greece’s excessive indebtedness, and to Spain’s real-estate bubble, eurozone leaders have consistently sought to re-align interest rates, for example, by compelling holders of Greek debt to accept “haircuts” (write-downs on principal).	类似地，尽管一刀切货币政策导致了希腊的国度负债和西班牙的房地产泡沫，但欧元区领导人一直在致力于理顺利率，其方法包括（比如）强迫希腊债券持有者接受“剃头”（haircut，即本金减记）。


But the impact is severely limited without external devaluation, which is impossible within a monetary union.	但在无法外部贬值的情况下（因为希腊属于货币联盟），这样做的效果极为有限。


While Greece’s eurozone partners may be able to carry it for decades this way, and even to bail out Spain, the system would surely collapse under the weight of a larger economy.	希腊的欧元区伙伴国可以如此行事数十年，甚至援助西班牙，但若更大的经济体出现问题，这一系统必将崩溃。


And such an economy – France – is in serious jeopardy.	而这样一个经济体——法国已岌岌可危。


In 2011, France’s ratio of new debt to GDP was three times higher than Germany’s, with the public sector accounting for more than 56% of national income.	2011年，法国的新债务/GDP比率比得过高三倍，公共部门占据了国民收入的56%以上。


Currently, 9% of French citizens are employed by the government, compared to 5% in Germany.	目前，9%的法国人由政府雇用，而德国只有5%。


And unemployment hovers above 10%, with youth unemployment far higher, at roughly 25%.	法国失业率也徘徊在10%以上，年轻人失业率则要高得多，约为25%。


While some of France’s largest companies – like Michelin, LVMH, and Air Liquide – remain successful, they cannot offset the economy’s lack of a solid base of small and medium-size enterprises.	一些法国大公司——如米其林、路易酩轩和法液空——仍相当成功，但它们无法抵消法国经济缺少中小企业生存土壤的劣势。


As a result, France’s competitiveness is deteriorating.	结果，法国的竞争力在恶化。


Indeed, its ranking on the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index fell from 18th last year to 21st this year (Germany ranked sixth both years).	事实上，法国在世界经济论坛的全球竞争力指数的排名由去年的第18名降至今年的第21名（德国在去年和今年均名列第6）。


Recent actions taken by President François Hollande’s government – including raising the minimum wage, increasing taxes on business, and lowering the retirement age for some workers – threaten to exacerbate the situation.	法国总统奥朗德政府的近期举动——包括提高最低工资、增加商业税、降低某些工种的退休年龄——极有可能让形势进一步恶化。


Given this, it is no surprise that Moody’s downgraded France’s credit rating last year.	如此看来，穆迪公司去年调降法国信用评级并不令人奇怪。


But, like the struggling countries of southern Europe, France has few options.	但是，与苦苦挣扎的南欧国家一样，法国并无多少选择。


Austerity programs have been largely counterproductive, generating vicious cycles of slow or no growth, business closures, skyrocketing unemployment, and tax-base erosion.	紧缩计划是反生产的，只能造成低增长甚至无增长、企业倒闭、失业高企和税基遭蚀的恶性循环。


As a result, the eurozone’s fiscally sound countries are being asked repeatedly to compromise their prudent policies in order to finance endless bailouts.	因此，欧元区的财政坚挺国被一再要求牺牲其审慎政策为无穷无尽的援助融资。


This situation is untenable.	这一局面是不可维持的。


Europe’s leaders must pursue a controlled segmentation of the eurozone, in which the most competitive countries – Austria, Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands – adopt a new currency, the “northern euro.”	欧洲领导人必须寻求有控制地分割欧元区，最具竞争力的国家——奥地利、芬兰、德国和荷兰——应该采用新货币“北欧元”。


This new monetary union would be managed according to the original Maastricht Treaty, with a truly independent central bank responsible for regulating the northern euro’s exchange rate against the euro, which less competitive countries would retain.	这一新的货币联盟将根据原始的马约进行治理，成立真正独立的中央银行负责监管北欧元对欧元（由竞争力较弱国家继续使用）的汇率。


The rump euro’s weakened exchange rate would lead to renewed economic growth, job creation, and a stronger tax base in southern European countries.	旧欧元的汇率贬值能重振南欧国家的经济增长、就业创造和税基巩固。


Initially, to facilitate debt reduction, bondholders would face another haircut.	一开始，为了协助削减债务，债权人将面临新一轮“剃头”。


Countries departing for the northern euro should make a one-time contribution to these debt-reduction efforts.	脱离北欧元的国家应该一次性地为这一债务削减计划出资。


A flexible membership system would enable countries to join the northern euro when their economic and fiscal conditions became strong enough.	灵活的成员资格制度将允许它们在经济和财政条件足够坚挺时加入北欧元。


Europe’s leaders must stop treating the eurozone as a homogeneous entity, imposing one-size-fits-all policies on vastly different countries.	欧洲领导人必须停止把欧元区视为一个同质实体，在大相径庭的国家之间实施一刀切政策。


The euro’s framework should be adjusted to suit current fiscal and economic realities – not the other way around.	欧元框架应该做出调整，以适应当前的财政和经济现实，而不是相反。


Spooked by Glass-Steagall’s Ghost?	格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案阴魂不散


CAMBRIDGE – America’s long-controversial Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which separated deposit-taking commercial banks from securities-trading investment banks in the United States, is back in the news.	纽约—长期饱受争议的1933年格拉斯-斯蒂格尔（Glass-Steagall）法案——规定吸纳储蓄的商业银行与交易证券的投资银行必须分业经营——再一次进入了新闻中心。


This separation long symbolized America’s unusual history of bank regulation – probably the most unusual in the developed world. 	分业经营曾经是美国不同寻常的银行监管史（大概是发达世界中最不同寻常的一段监管史）的象征。


American banking regulation had long kept US banks small and local (unable to branch across state lines), unlike their European and Japanese equivalents, while limiting their operational capacity (by barring banks from mixing commercial and investment banking).	美国银行监管规则长期让美国银行局限在小型地区银行的范围里（无法跨越州界开设分支），这与欧洲和日本银行形成了鲜明对比。 同时，美国银行的业务能力也受到了限制（禁止银行混业经营商业银行和投资银行业务）。


These limits on American banking persisted until the 1990’s, when Congress repealed most of this regulatory structure.	这些加在美国银行头上的限制一直持续到20世纪90年代国会撤销了这一监管结构的大部分内容为止。


Now the idea of a new Glass-Steagall is back, and not only in the US.	如今，新格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的思想卷土重来，而且不再局限于美国。


Sandy Weill, Citigroup’s onetime CEO, said last month that allowing commercial and investment banks to merge was a mistake.	上个月，花旗集团前CEO桑迪·维尔（Sandy Weill）称允许商业和投资银行合并是一个错误。


This is the same Weill who had lobbied to gut Glass-Steagall in order to build today’s Citigroup, which put insurance companies, securities dealers, and traditional deposit-taking banks all under one roof.	而正是这个桑迪·维尔，当年通过游说废除格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案在就了今天在同一块招牌下兼营保险公司、证券经纪行和传统吸储银行的花旗集团。


In fact, he engineered an agreement to merge Citi with a large insurer – illegal at the time under Glass-Steagall – and then pushed for the law’s repeal, so that the merger could proceed.	事实上，当年维尔先促成了花旗和某大型保险商的合并意向——当时，根据格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案，这是非法的——然后设法推动了该法案的废除，从而让合并得以成行。


A similar debate has been underway in Britain.	英国也在经历类似的争论。


A commission headed by Sir John Vickers, the Oxford economist and former Bank of England chief economist, wants banks’ retail operations to be “ring-fenced” from riskier trading and investment banking businesses.	由牛津大学经济学家、前英格兰银行首席经济学家约翰·威克斯（John Vickers）爵士牵头的委员会想将银行的零售业务与风险更大的交易和投资银行业务“隔离”（ring-fence）。


Ring-fencing is not exactly Glass-Steagall-style separation – Glass-Steagall forbade commercial banks from even affiliating with investment banks – but it is in the same spirit.	隔离与格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案中的分业（separation）有所不同——后者连商业银行和投资银行同属一家银行也是禁止的——但精神是一致的。


The impetus for the rethinking is, of course, the recent financial crisis.	如此反思的原因当然是最近的金融危机。


Are Weill and Vickers right now, people are asking, or was Weill right two decades ago, when he backed allowing investment and commercial banks to merge?	人们会问，究竟是今天的维尔和威克斯正确，还是二十年前支持允许投资银行和商业银行合并的维尔正确？


That is actually the wrong question to ask first.	事实上，首先应该问的并不是这个问题。


The first question is whether Glass-Steagall’s repeal strongly contributed to the financial crisis in the US.	首要问题是，格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的废除是否与美国金融危机有关。


If it did, Glass-Steagall’s repeal should be revisited, and quickly.	如果答案是肯定的，那么格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的废除就要被重新看待，而且必须尽快。


If it did not contribute much to the crisis, keeping risky trading away from commercial banks’ deposit base may still be desirable, but not something that the financial crisis “proved” is necessary.	如果其废除与危机关系不大，那么将高风险交易活动与商业银行的基础存款相隔离也许仍值得一试，但并不是因为金融危机才“证实”了它的必要性。


Those who say that the financial recent crisis tells us to re-enact Glass-Steagall overlook what failed and what did not: the largest failures in the 2008 crisis – Lehman Brothers, AIG, and the Reserve Primary Fund – were not deposit-taking commercial banks on which Glass-Steagall’s repeal had a major impact.	说如今的金融危机告诉我们应该重新引入格拉斯-斯蒂格尔发难没有弄清楚什么倒了，而什么没倒：2008年危机中最大的倒闭案——雷曼兄弟公司、AIG和Reserve Primary Fund——都不是受格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案废除的影响最大的吸储商业银行。


AIG was a mega-insurer.	AIG是保险巨头。


Lehman was an investment bank.	雷曼是投资银行。


The Reserve Primary Fund – brought down by its purchases of IOU’s from Lehman – was a money-market mutual fund, not a commercial bank.	因从雷曼手中购买债券而倒闭的Reserve Primary Fund是货币市场共同基金而不是商业银行。


True, major commercial banks, like Citibank and Bank of America, tottered, but they were not at risk because of their securities underwriting for corporate clients or their securities-trading divisions, but because of how they (mis)handled mortgage securities.	诚然，花旗和美国银行等主要商业银行也遭受了重创，但原因并不是面向公司客户的证券承销和证券交易业务，而是它们（错误地）处理按揭证券的方式。


Mortgage lending, however, is a long-standing activity for commercial and savings banks, mostly unaffected by Glass-Steagall or its repeal.	然而，长期以来，按揭贷款是商业银行和储蓄银行的活动，格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的废除对该业务几乎没有影响。


Some commercial-banking activities are closer to securities trading.	一些商业银行业务与证券交易更为接近。


The so-called “Volcker Rule,” proposed by Paul Volcker, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, is a mini-Glass-Steagall, aiming to bar deposit-taking commercial banks from derivatives trading – now seen to be a dangerous activity for them.	所谓的“沃克尔规则”（Volcker Rule，由前美联储主席保罗·沃克尔提出）便是迷你版的格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案，它旨在禁止吸储的商业银行从事现在看来属于危险活动的衍生品交易。


But, again, although derivatives trading played an important role in the crisis (AIG’s inability, without a government bailout, to honor its risky credit-default swaps is the best example), Glass-Steagall’s repeal did not unleash the riskiest trades in the institutions that failed.	但是，上一个例子相似，尽管衍生品交易在当前危机中扮演了很重要的角色（最好的证明便是AIG，由于没有得到政府援助，它无法赔付其高风险的信用违约互换），格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的废除并没有让倒闭机构的高风险交易变得更容易。


Reenacting it will do little, if anything, to remedy crisis-related ills, beyond what the Volcker Rule is supposed to do anyway.	重新引入格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案对治愈危机相关顽疾并没有什么用（如果不是一点用处都没有的话），效果不会好于沃克尔规则。


The best case against Glass-Steagall’s repeal is not that mixing investment and commercial banking caused the crisis.	反对废除格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的最佳例证并不是投资银行和商业银行的混业经营导致了危机。


Rather, the best case arises from a general sense that financial institutions have become too complicated to regulate and too big to fail even when staying within their traditional businesses.	最佳例证在于总体图景：金融机构变得太复杂而无法监管，太庞大而无法倒闭，即使它们仍从事着自己的传统业务。


Hence, we should simplify and strengthen them.	因此，我们需要简化和强化它们。


But even if those are the goals, the recent focus on repealing Glass-Steagall is not helpful, because it is not the most important way to simplify and strengthen America’s banks.	但即使将目标锁定于此，当前成为关注焦点的格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的废除也没起什么作用，因为这并不是最重要的简化和强化美国银行的方式。


It thereby diverts policymakers’ attention from the main issues.	这样做还分散了决策者的注意力，是他们不再关注主要问题。


If the financial crisis reveals a structural problem in banking, it is more likely to come from insufficient capital to cushion a bank’s fall, or from too many financial institutions having become too big to fail.	如果金融危机暴露了银行业的结构性问题，那么这一问题更可能产生于银行资本不足以缓冲倒闭，或者产生于太多的金融机构变得太大而不能倒。


The US Dodd-Frank legislation, enacted in 2010, did (weakly) cap the size of future bank mergers.	2010年实施的美国多德-弗兰克（Dodd-Frank）法案给未来银行合并规定了一个（很弱的）上限。


But, if size is still the problem, more could be done.	但是，如果规模仍然是一个问题，那么光有这一法案是不够的。


If big banks have become too complex to regulate, then a workable Volcker Rule is the best way to start simplifying them.	如果大银行变得太复杂而无法监管，那么可行的沃克尔规则是简化它们的最佳起点。


And, if the problem is systemically risky derivatives trading in banks and elsewhere, then the priority given to derivatives traders over nearly every creditor ought to be curtailed.	此外，如果问题在于银行和其他机构具系统性风险的衍生品交易，那么就应该衍生品交易员高于几乎所有债权人的地位就应该被降低。


Ironically, Glass-Steagall itself arose in the 1930’s from commercial bankers’ efforts to divert regulators’ attention from other remedies.	讽刺的是，20世纪30年代的格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案正是产生于商业银行家将监管者的注意力从其他修正办法上移开的努力。


Small-town bankers throughout the country wanted government-guaranteed deposit insurance, while stronger big-city banks feared that government deposit insurance would put them at a competitive disadvantage.	全美国的小镇银行家希望得到政府担保的存款保险，而更强大的大城市银行担心政府存款保险会让他们处于竞争劣势。


After all, deposits from the small-town banks were running off to big banks in money centers like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.	毕竟，来自小镇银行的存款正在向纽约、芝加哥和洛杉矶等货币中心城市大银行集中。


Two decades ago, Donald Langevoort, now a law professor at Georgetown, showed that major bankers – indeed, the leaders of First National City, the predecessor to Weill’s Citibank – proposed Glass-Steagall in lieu of deposit insurance.	二十年前，如今已成为乔治敦大学法学教授的唐纳德·兰芝福尔特（Donald Langevoort）指出，大银行家——事实上，正是维尔的花旗银行的前身第一国民城市银行的领导人——正是格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的始作俑者，他们试图用它来代替存款保险。


No big bank was at risk from trading securities then, but the big banks’ investment-banking affiliates were not making money trading and underwriting securities during the Depression, so the banks were willing to surrender that part of their business.	当时，没有一家大银行因证券交易而承受着风险，相反，大银行的投资银行部门所从事的证券交易和承销业务在大萧条期间根本无利可图，因此大银行十分乐于牺牲掉这部分业务。


The irony is that Congress took up the big banks’ offer to separate commercial and investment banking, but then enacted deposit insurance anyway.	讽刺之处在于国会接受了大银行的动议，对商业银行和投资银行实行了分业，但随后还是出台了存款保险。


Glass-Steagall was a distraction then; it is a distraction now.	格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的诞生就是为了分散人们的注意力，如今无非是故技重施罢了。


If the goal is to shore up the weaknesses revealed by the global financial crisis, policymakers in the US and other countries should first look elsewhere.	如果我们的目标是巩固因全球金融危机而暴露的弱点，那么美国和其他国家的政客应该将目光先投向别处。


China and the Deep Blue Sea	中国和蓝海


HO CHI MINH CITY – Since December 2013, China has added more than 1,200 hectares to islands in the South China Sea.	胡志明市——2013年12月以来，中国已增加了1，200多公顷的南海岛屿属地。


The geopolitical implications of these land reclamation efforts are well documented: The majority of the activity has taken place on the Spratly Islands, an archipelago in the waters between Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, all of which – along with China, Taiwan, and Brunei – have competing claims to the region.	上述土地开垦工作的地缘政治影响都有完整的记录：大部分活动发生在南沙群岛，即越南、马来西亚和菲律宾之间的多岛海区，上述国家——再加上中国、台湾和文莱——都对该地区提出了竞争性主权要求。


What has been less discussed is the project’s environmental impact, which borders on catastrophic.	该项目近乎灾难性的环境影响极少引发关注。


China’s activities are endangering fish stocks, threatening marine biodiversity, and creating a long-term threat to some of the world’s most spectacular sea life.	中国的活动正在危及鱼类种群、威胁海洋生物多样性，并对世界最壮观的海洋生物构成长期威胁。


Thousands of coral reefs, seagrass beds, and other shallow-water ecosystems are rapidly being destroyed and buried as China’s leaders rush to stake their claim to the region.	中国领导人急于对该地区宣誓主权摧毁并埋葬了成千上万的珊瑚礁、海草床和其他浅水生态系统。


The land reclamation project is undermining the ecological connection between the Spratly Islands and the South China Sea, choking off the supply of nutrients upon which these ecosystems depend.	土地开垦项目正在破坏南沙群岛和南中国海之间的生态联系，掐断这些生态系统赖以存在的营养物质供应。


Moreover, China’s bellicose stance, together with the undefined ownership of the region and its fish stocks, has led to destructive overfishing, degrading the marine ecosystem and threatening endangered species, including sea turtles, sharks, and giant clams.	此外，中国好战的姿态，再加上区域及鱼类种群所有权不明，已经导致了破坏性的过度捕捞，破坏海洋生态系统并对包括海龟、鲨鱼和巨蚌在内的濒危物种构成威胁。


Since 2010, the fishery reserves in the Spratly Islands and the western part of the South China Sea have been reduced by 16%.	自2010年来，南沙群岛和南中国海西部海域的渔业储备已经减少了16%。


Approximately 300 million people depend on the South China Sea’s marine resources for their livelihoods; should China continue on its current course, the risk of massive economic dislocation will grow.	约有3亿人依赖南中国海的海洋资源来维持生计； 如果中国继续目前的做法，大规模经济混乱的风险将会继续增加。


But the South China Sea is an important body of water for the entire world, not only for the countries that border it.	但南中国海不仅属于临近国家，也是全世界的重要水体。


It is an essential international maritime transportation route – connecting the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean – through which roughly 300 vessels, including 200 oil tankers, pass daily.	它是至关重要的国际海上运输航线——连接印度洋及太平洋——每天通航船只约为300艘，其中包括200艘油轮。


The international community should condemn China’s militarization of the Spratly Islands and urge it to reverse course, thereby minimizing the risk of a conflict that could be even more disastrous for the marine environment.	国际社会应该谴责中国对南沙群岛的军事化，促使其改变策略，从而最大限度地避免爆发可能对海洋环境带来更多灾难性风险的冲突。


More broadly, all countries responsible for the degradation and destruction of the South China Sea’s shallow-water ecosystems must halt activities that threaten the region’s biodiversity and economic productivity.	更广泛地讲，所有对南中国海的浅水生态系统的退化和破坏负有责任的国家必须停止威胁该地区生物多样性和经济生产率的活动。


China’s claim to the Spratly Islands and a large portion of the South China Sea is based on the so-called nine-dash line, a demarcation extending far south of its territory that has been repeatedly contested since it was first proposed after World War II.	中国对南沙群岛和很大一部分南中国海的主权要求基于所谓的九段线划界法，上述划界方式包含了其领土南部的大片海域，在二战后一经提出就遭到一再反对。


And China’s recent land reclamation efforts violate several international environmental conventions, most notably the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES).	中国最近的土地开垦工作违反了若干国际环境公约，特别是生物多样性公约（CBD）和濒危野生动植物物种国际贸易公约（CITES）。


China’s actions in the South China Sea also contravene the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees the right to navigation within its waters.	中国在南海的动作也违反了保障其水域内航行权的1982年联合国海洋法公约。


And its militarization of the Spratlys is clearly a violation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.	其对南沙群岛实行军事化显然也违反了南中国海各方行为宣言。


That declaration requires its signatories (the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China) to “exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability.”	该声明要求各缔约国（东盟成员国和中国）在有可能导致争议复杂化、扩大化并对和平与稳定构成影响的行为上自我克制。


This includes “refraining from action of inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features and to handle their differences in a constructive manner.”	其中包括“避免居住在现在无人居住的岛、礁、滩、珊瑚礁和其他地点，并以建设性的方式对待分歧。 ”


Thirteen years after that declaration, ASEAN should redouble its efforts to reach an accord with China over the status of the Spratly Islands and the South China Sea.	宣言发表13年后，东盟应加倍努力就南沙群岛和南中国海的地位问题与中国签署协议。


And the international community should support that effort.	国际社会应支持这项努力。


All countries in the region have the responsibility to monitor and preserve the marine environment and manage its resources.	地区内所有国家都有责任监督和保护海洋环境并对资源进行管理。


But the real responsibility lies with China.	但真正的责任在于中国。


When it comes to international law, it is up to the world’s most powerful countries to lead by example.	在国际法问题上，理应由全世界最强大的国家做出表率。


China must live up to its obligations – beginning in the South China Sea.	中国必须履行自己的义务——从南海开始。


Sputnik Redux	人造卫星的重生


CAPE CANAVERAL – More than 50 years ago (1957), the Soviets launched the world’s first orbiting satellite, beating the US into space.	卡纳维埃拉尔角——50多年前（1957年），苏联发射了全世界第一颗轨道卫星，击败美国进入了太空。


For Americans, the so-called “Sputnik moment” was a wake-up call that pushed the United States to increase investment in technology and science education.	对美国而言，所谓的“卫星时刻”是一记当头棒喝，促使美国增加在科学和技术领域的投资。


Months later, the US launched the Explorer 1 satellite, and the race was on.	几个月后，美国发射了探险家1号卫星，太空竞赛就此拉开序幕。


Children were encouraged to study math and science, and American know-how helped the US meet the challenge.	孩子们被鼓励学习数学和科学，美国的专业技术则帮助美国完成了这项艰巨的任务。


But things have slowed down dramatically since then, and NASA has been trying since early November to get its latest shuttle ready for launch.	但此后太空领域的进展明显放缓，美国宇航局从去年11月开始就一直在准备发射最新的航天飞机。


In December, US President Barack Obama talked of the need for a new “Sputnik moment” to revitalize America’s once-leading role in technology.	12月，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马谈到需要新的“卫星时刻”，重振美国一度领先的太空科技。


Ironically, that moment happened two days later, but with lamentably little media coverage.	颇具讽刺意味的是，两天后就迎来了这样的时刻，但却没有得到媒体应有的关注。


However, this Sputnik moment – actually a “Dragon moment” – delivers a somewhat different message.	不过，这一卫星时刻——实际应该称为“龙飞船时刻”——传递了有些不同的信息。


The launch of the Dragon spacecraft was in fact a US achievement, in a traditionally American spirit.	“龙”飞船的发射实际上是美国的骄傲，它反映着传统的美国精神。


On December 8, a US company, SpaceX, founded by an immigrant and financed mostly by private US investors, successfully launched a spacecraft into orbit and then recovered it from a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.	12月8日，一家由移民创建由私人投资者出资的美国公司SpaceX成功地将一艘飞船送入轨道，并成功地在太平洋上对其进行了回收。


The message is not just that STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) education is necessary, but also that this achievement by a private company cost just a fraction of NASA's budget in money and time.	它向人们宣告不仅科学、技术、工程和数学（合成STEM）教育很有必要，而且私营公司的这项成果在耗费的金钱和时间上只占宇航局预算的一个零头。


Governments are great at funding and carrying out research, but competitive private companies motivated by profit and glory tend to be more efficient and speedier in applying the results.	政府的优势在于资助和开展研究，而受利润和荣耀驱动的竞争性私营企业一般在应用成果时更迅速、也更有效。


One notable example: right before the launch, SpaceX engineers found a few cracks in the second-stage engine nozzle extension.	举一个明显的例子： 就在飞船发射前，SpaceX工程师发现第二级发动机延长式喷嘴上有几条裂缝。


Rather than haul the spacecraft back to the shop for repairs, they simply analyzed the flaw, trimmed off the affected section, and proceeded with the launch.	他们只是分析了相关缺陷，剪掉受影响部分，而后继续发射，而没有将飞船拖回工厂维修。


(To be sure, they might have acted differently had the Dragon been carrying humans.)	（当然，如果“龙”飞船执行的是载人飞行，他们可能所采取的措施可能会有所不同。 ）


The message of the Dragon moment is not that NASA is clueless, but that government research agencies are not the right type of organization to run routine operations that could be better handled by businesses.	“龙”时刻提醒我们的并不是美国宇航局的无能，而是政府研究机构不适合管理常规经营活动，而企业在这方面则具有优势。


(NASA in particular has been constrained by years of political infighting and patronage in the US Congress, to the point where its mission seems to be employment maintenance rather space exploration.)	（美国宇航局多年来一直受制于美国国会的政治内讧和赞助，以致于其任务更像是在创造就业机会，而不是太空探索。 ）


Of course, I must confess a personal interest in this question.	当然，我必须承认这个问题关乎我的个人利益。


I am writing this from Cape Canaveral, Florida.	我写这篇文章是在佛罗里达的卡纳维拉尔角。


As a member of NASA's Advisory Council, I am currently visiting its Kennedy Space Center, which is badly in need of upgrading and repairs.	作为美国宇航局顾问委员会委员，我目前正在拯待升级和修缮的肯尼迪航天中心参观。


Yet right now NASA is spending $475 million on a program that has already been canceled instead of on the space center.	但现在宇航局正将4亿7500万美元投入一个已经取消的项目，而不是用来修缮航天中心。


The reason: a congressman managed to introduce a legal provision that prohibits NASA from stopping the spending until a new budget has been approved.	原因是： 一名议员成功引入了法律条款，禁止宇航局在新预算案获批之前停止这项开支。


Because NASA is still operating under an old budget, the canceled program continues to be funded.	因为宇航局需要遵守旧的预算案，因此已经取消的项目继续得到资金支持。


Imagine how those workers must feel: grateful for the paychecks, but completely cynical about the value of the work they are doing.	不妨想想那些工作人员的感受： 他们庆幸自己能拿到薪水，但对手头工作的价值完全不屑一顾。


Why not pay them the same amount to share their knowledge and skills in high schools?	为什么不让他们拿着这些薪水到高中讲课？


That would be a more appropriate response.	这比他们现在的工作有意义得多。


But back to the Dragon, which succeeded for a number of reasons.	我们再回到龙飞船项目，它的成功有以下几个因素。


First and foremost, SpaceX is a private company.	首先，SpaceX是一家私营公司。


Someone’s own money is at stake, so it is not wasted.	因为涉及私人款项，所以杜绝了浪费。


Its founder, Elon Musk, an immigrant from South Africa (who in his spare time also runs Tesla, the electric-car company), funded it with his own money (which he earned at PayPal, another start-up) and that of other private investors.	公司创始人埃伦·莫斯克是南非移民（他在闲暇时间还同时经营电动汽车公司Tesla），公司的运营经费来自他（另一家创业企业PayPal 的利润）和其他私人投资家的自有款项。


(Yes, SpaceX does have contracts with NASA, but for a fixed price per launch.)	（是的，SpaceX 的确与美国宇航局订有合同，但每次发射都采用固定价格。 ）


The emphasis at SpaceX is on getting the job done, rather than just doing the job.	SpaceX关注的不只是工作本身，而是在预算内保质保量的完成工作。


Whereas governments and government contractors generally enjoy job security, private companies know that the money may run out.	政府和政府合同商工作一般都非常稳定，而私营企业则知道钱是会花完的。


Also, private companies compete.	此外，私营公司还要参与竞争。


Behind SpaceX is a crowd of other private companies developing spacecraft, including Masten Space Systems, XCOR Aerospace, Armadillo Aerospace, and Blue Origin.	SpaceX身后是一群从事飞船研发的私营企业，包括Masten Space Systems、XCOR Aerospace、Armadillo Aerospace和Blue Origin。


These companies aren’t all competing to build precisely the same kind of vehicle; in fact, each considers its own approach superior.	这些企业所造的飞行器并不完全一样，事实上，每家企业都认为自己的技术更有优势。


This kind of redundancy is actually efficient in the long run, as each player experiments and all of them learn from everyone’s failures and successes.	这种冗余实际从长远来看更有效益，因为每家公司都勇于实验，并从其他人的成败当中吸取经验。


In the meantime, each of them is competing not for a single grand prize but for a share of a growing market, risking investors’ money and their own reputations.	与此同时，每家企业押上投资人资金和自身信誉所竞争的并不是一份单纯的大奖，而是不断增长的市场份额。


It is this free-market economy, which rewards useful innovation and purposeful risk-taking, that we should honor and recognize.	正是这种奖励实用创新和有目的冒险的自由市场经济，应当得到我们的表彰和嘉奖。


The US government (or European governments, for that matter) can’t get us out of our current economic mess any better than they can get us to the moon at this point.	美国政府（在这方面也包括欧洲政府）带领我们走出目前经济困境的能力并不比他们带领我们登月的能力更强。


In most areas of endeavor, the government should be a demanding customer rather than a provider (or subsidizer).	在绝大多数相关领域，政府应当扮演的是要求严格的客户，而不是供应商（或出资方）。


In the US, government fostered the airline business – largely by buying cargo services from private airlines.	美国政府在很大程度上通过从私营航空公司购买货运服务推动了航空业的发展。


It also built what became the Internet – and then sensibly left most of the development and day-to-day operations to the private sector.	政府还建设了互联网——而后明智地将绝大部分发展和日常运营移交到私营部门手上。


Now, under Obama’s new and sensible space policy, the US government is planning to focus on flying to Mars and so-called “near-Earth objects,”  purchasing routine transportation to the International Space Station from companies such as SpaceX (instead of from the Russian space program at $60 million or so per astronaut for every round-trip).	现在，在奥巴马合理的太空新政下，美国政府计划将重点放在飞往火星及所谓的“近地天体”上，而将国际空间站的常规往返列入从SpaceX等公司的采购对象（而不是以每名宇航员往返约合6000万美元的价格从俄罗斯航天计划进行采购）。


What the Dragon moment makes clear is that the ability to commercialize innovation, not just to create it, is what has made the US economy so robust over the long run.	“龙”时刻清楚地表明，实现创新商业化，而不是单纯的创新能力，是美国经济长期繁荣的核心所在。


Spying on Eros	窥觑性爱


A Sydney-based Muslim cleric, Sheik Hilaly, recently made headlines in Australia when he publicly reflected that immodest women invite rape because they are like “uncovered meat.”	谢赫·希拉里（Sheik Hilaly）是一位住在悉尼的穆斯林传教士，不久前他公开宣称女人自身不够庄重会诱发强奸，因为放荡的女人就像裸露的鲜肉那样招人窥觑。


More unfortunate still was his implication that this was the cause of a series of gang rapes in Sydney in 2000, in which the attackers’ legal defense was that they thought the women were sexually available because they wore Western clothes.	因为这些言论，他登上了澳大利亚各大报纸的头版头条。 更令人遗憾的是，他暗示是由于女人的不庄重导致了2000年悉尼的一系列群奸案件，这些案件的肇事者辩护说因为受害者穿着西方服饰，导致他们认为可以与之性交。


Although local Muslim leaders have since criticized Hilaly’s attitude, the incident again raises the question of attitudes regarding sex in “orthodox” communities, and how they can be reconciled with prevailing norms in the West.	尽管当地穆斯林领袖批评了希拉里的观点，但这一事件再次引起了民众对“东正教”性观念的质疑，也引起了怎样才能使“东正教”性观念符合西方主流标准的探讨。


Meanwhile, in the United States, the controversy over government spying on its citizens seems to have died down, mostly because people are now convinced that their government will only look at the really bad guys.	与此同时，在美国，对政府窥觑公民隐私的争论似乎已渐渐平息，主要原因是人们相信：只有真正的坏人才会受到政府的监控。


What do these two issues have in common?	这两个问题有哪些共同之处？


Gathering sophisticated intelligence is largely a matter of understanding trends.	搜索高级情报在很大程度上有赖于人们对趋势的理解。