But, to be effective, any new deal to promote trade must involve more than a new set of international institutions.	但是，为了取得成效，任何促进贸易的新政都必须包括比一套新的国际机构更广泛的内容。


It requires democratic reform from the bottom up.	这种新政需要进行从下到上的民主改革。


In fact, this requirement is rooted in history.	事实上，这种改革要求植根于历史。


We have become so accustomed to thinking of free trade as a specialist matter for liberal economists and trade negotiators in dark suits that we forget how a century ago, free trade was a core belief for many democrats, radicals, women activists, and, indeed, organized labor.	我们已经习惯于认为自由贸易是自由主义经济学家和穿着黑色西服的贸易谈判代表的专业问题，以至于我们忘记了在一个世纪之前，自由贸易是怎样被众多民主人士、激进分子、妇女运动人士以及甚至有组织劳工作为中心信条的。


Back then, Britain was in a position not unlike that of the US today: a superpower in relative decline, facing new competitors and a backlash against globalization.	再往后，英国和现在的美国处于类似的境地：一个相对衰落的超级大国，面临着新的竞争者和全球化的冲击。


In the late nineteenth century, all powers raised their trade barriers – except Britain.	在19世纪晚期，所有的大国都提高了它们的贸易壁垒——除了英国。


Britain’s stance holds lessons for today.	英国的态度可以为今天所借鉴。


Most economists stress the superiority of the free-trade model and point to the power of lobbies and interest groups to explain its unpopularity in practice.	绝大多数经济学家强调自由贸易模式的优越性，并指出议院说客和利益集团的势力，以此来解释自由贸易模式在实践中的不受欢迎。


As US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has argued, trade expansion inevitably creates some losers, whose protests distract attention from the benefits of globalization.	像美联储主席本·伯南克认为的那样，贸易扩张会不可避免地产生一些失败者，而这些人的抗议分散了对全球化好处的关注。


This is true, but it is only half the story, for it ignores how, at crucial moments in history, free trade has mustered the support of the many winners.	这个观点是正确的，但是，它只是事情的一部分，因为它忽略了在关键时刻，自由贸易是怎样获得众多胜利者的支持的。


A century ago, during an earlier crisis of globalization, the demand for free trade in Britain inspired a genuine mass movement.	一个世纪之前，在全球化初期产生的危机中，在英国对自由贸易的要求激起了一个真正的群众运动。


It was not just a cause dear to bankers, merchants, or the young John Maynard Keynes.	自由贸易不仅仅是一个受到银行家、商人或者年青的约翰·梅纳徳·凯恩斯珍视的理想。


It mobilized millions of people.	它动员了数百万人。


For women, who remained disenfranchised, free trade was a kind of substitute citizenship: parliament safeguarded their interests as consumers by keeping the door open for cheap imports.	对仍然没有公民权的妇女来说，自由贸易是一种公民权的替代：议会通过为便宜的进口商品打开大门，维护了她们作为消费者的利益。


For many democrats, it was a force for peace and social justice, minimizing the power of special interests and teaching citizens about fairness and international understanding.	对许多民主人士来说，它是一种和平和社会正义的力量，将特殊利益群体的权力最小化并教导公民有关公平和国际理解的内容。


We should not romanticize this earlier era of free trade.	我们不应该将自由贸易的初期浪漫化。


Poverty did not vanish.	那时贫困并没有消失。


Many British people believed in a “Free Trade Empire.”	许多英国人信奉“自由贸易帝国”。


Others fanned the flames of Anglo-German antagonism, caricaturing protectionist Germany as a barbarian society surviving on horse sausages and dog-meat; Lloyd George, the future prime minister, told audiences that he was more afraid of the German sausage than he was of the German navy.	有些人煽动了英国－德国间的对抗情绪，讽刺实行贸易保护主义的德国是依靠马肉肠和狗肉生存的野蛮国家； 后来当上英国首相的劳合·乔治（Lloyd George）告诉其听众，和德国海军比起来，他更害怕德国香肠。


One reason that free trade defeated protectionism in Britain a century ago was that its supporters appealed to people’s emotions and identities, not just their rational interest in more wealth and cheap food.	一个世纪前，自由贸易在英国打败了贸易保护主义的一个原因是，自由贸易的支持者迎合了人们的感情和身份需求，而不仅仅是他们对更多财富和廉价食品的合理兴趣。


Liberals and radicals organized traveling shows, color posters, and political entertainment.	自由主义者和激进分子组织了移动表演，张贴彩色海报和进行政治娱乐。


In towns, displays in shop windows illustrated the costs of tariffs to ordinary consumers.	在城镇，商��橱窗的陈列图解了关税给普通消费者带来的负担。


In the countryside, people watched political slide shows late into the night.	在农村，人们观看政治幻灯片到深夜。


Meetings in seaside resorts reached almost a million people in 1910.	1910年，在海滨度假胜地参加自由贸易讨论会议的人数几乎达到了100万。


When was the last time you went to the beach and found yourself pulled into a debate about tariffs?	你到海滩发现自己被拉进有关关税的讨论，最后一次是什么时候呢？


The First World War and the 1920’s shattered any naïve belief in pure free trade.	第一次世界大战和20世纪20年代粉碎了所有对纯粹的自由贸易的天真幻想。


Like today, consumers discovered that markets could leave them helpless, leading to calls for regulation.	和现在一样，消费者发现市场会让他们很无助，从而使人们呼吁对市场进行监管。


Internationalists had to come to terms with the simple fact that, on its own, trade did not automatically enable peace.	国际主义者不得不接受一个简单的事实，贸易自己不能自动产生和平。


Economic globalization had outpaced politics, creating new tensions over oil and other strategic resources.	经济全球化的步伐已经超过了政治的现状，从而导致了在石油和其他战略资源上新的紧张状态。


Political institutions needed to catch up.	政治机构需要加紧赶上了。


Bretton Woods and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade created a new order after the Second World War.	在第二次世界大战后，布雷顿森林体系和《关贸总协定》建立了一个新秩序。


In economic terms, they have had considerable success.	在经济方面，它们取得了相当大的成功。


Tariffs have fallen, although non-tariff barriers and preferential agreements have been on the rise.	虽然非关税壁垒和优惠贸易协定数量在上升，但是，关税下降了。


But in terms of democratic culture, GATT also led to a further separation of trade from everyday politics.	然而，在民主文化方面，《关贸总协定》也导致了贸易从平常政治中的进一步分离。


This is why free trade has been left so defenseless in the face of anti-globalization protests.	这就是自由贸易在反全球化抗议面前如此没有招架之力的原因。


The good news is that people have not stopped caring about the ethics of trade.	好消息是，人们没有停止对贸易伦理的关注。


On the contrary, they have switched to other movements like fair trade and trade justice.	相反，人们已经转向了诸如公平贸易和贸易公正这样的运动。


To be fair, the WTO under Pascal Lamy has tried to reach out to such groups.	公平地讲，在帕斯卡尔·拉米领导下的世界贸易组织已经努力和这样的团体进行接触了。


Still, there is a long way to go to reconnect freer trade with citizenship and global solidarity.	然而，将更自由的贸易和公民权利以及全球团结再次联系起来，还有很长的路要走。


History shows that doing so is both possible and necessary.	历史已经证实，这样做是既可能，也必要的。


The Forty-Year Palestinian Tragedy	40年的巴勒斯坦悲剧


Forty years ago, Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza, and the Golan Heights after a lightning six-day war that repelled the armies of Egypt, Jordan, and Syria.	四十年前，以色列通过闪电般的六日战争，击溃了埃及、约旦和叙利亚的军队，占领了（约旦河）西岸、加沙和戈兰高地。


Today, ending the occupation of Palestinian territories that began that June seems as distant a dream as ever.	今天，要结束那年六月开始的对巴勒斯坦领土的占领，似乎也只是一个遥遥无期的梦了。


The Somalia-like chaos and civil war that is now unfolding in Gaza as a result of this decades-old stalemate can be blamed partly on ill-conceived Israeli policies, and partly on an American administration that, for six long years, relegated the cause of Israeli-Palestinian peace to the bottom of its agenda.	作为这已持续数十年的僵局的结果，正在加沙上演的索马里式的混乱和内战一方面可以归咎于制定不力的以色列政策，另一方面则是拜美国政府所赐。 在长达六年的时间里，美国政府将以巴和平事业带到了谷底。


But it is misleading to attribute the failure of the Palestinians to develop an orderly system of self-government only to the pernicious effects of Israeli occupation and American policies.	但是如果将巴勒斯坦人在建立一套有序的自治体系方面的失败完全归咎于以色列占领和美国政策的恶性作用则有误导之嫌。


The Palestinian crisis is first and foremost one of leadership.	巴勒斯坦危机首先是一场领导力危机。


True, Yasser Arafat was not a model democrat, but his charisma and political acumen were crucial for holding all the Palestinian factions together.	诚然，阿拉法特不是一位模范的民主主义者，但他的魅力和政治敏锐对将巴勒斯坦各派系团结起来至关重要。


Now, not even Fatah, Arafat’s own party, can claim to be a coherent organization.	现今，甚至连阿拉法特自己的政党“法塔赫”也不能自称为一个团结一心的组织了。


Hamas’ electoral victory in January 2006 was to a large extent due to Fatah’s fragmentation under Arafat’s successor, Mahmoud Abbas.	哈马斯在2006年一月选举中胜出在很大程度上是因为法塔赫在阿拉法特的继任者阿巴斯领导下的四分五裂。


With no effective central authority to inspire fear or respect and the PLO devoid of legitimacy precisely because of its refusal to give Hamas its rightful share in the organization, a grotesquely ineffective brand of “cohabitation” between a Fatah president and a Hamas prime minister has emerged.	由于没有有效的集中权威来获得威慑或尊敬，再加上巴解组织缺少合法性（恰恰是因为它拒绝给予哈马斯在该组织中的合理地位），一种法塔赫总统和哈马斯总理之间的怪异而低效的“共存”就出现了。


As a result, Palestinian politics has degenerated into a naked struggle for the spoils of power.	其结果是使巴勒斯坦政治沦落为一种赤裸裸的权力斗争。


Last February’s Mecca agreement, which created the Fatah-Hamas unity government, was supposed to establish a civilized system of power-sharing.	去年二月份使法塔赫-哈马斯联合政府得以成立的麦加协议本应建立一种文明的权力共享制度。


But that deal now appears to be collapsing.	但这一协议现在似乎正在崩溃。


The current flare-up is largely due to the fact that Fatah, encouraged by the international community’s boycott of Hamas, never really accepted its electoral defeat and Hamas’s right to govern.	现在的激烈冲突在很大程度上是由于法塔赫在国际社会联合抵制哈马斯的形势鼓励下从未真正接受自己在选举中的失败和哈马斯的统治权。


Moreover, since Hamas’s rise to power, Fatah’s challenge to the new Palestinian rulers was enhanced by lavish financial support it secured from the United States and Europe, and by a generous supply of weapons from both the US and Arab countries.	此外，自从哈马斯掌权以来，法塔赫对这一新巴勒斯坦统治者的挑战进一步升级。 其背后是从美国和欧洲获得的慷慨财政支持和来自于美国及阿拉伯国家的大量武器供应。


Thus, the current conflict is essentially a pre-emptive war by Hamas – aggravated by lawlessness and banditry, clashing free-lance militias, tribes, and families, and a spiral of senseless massacres – to prevent Fatah from being turned by the international community into a formidable challenger to its democratic right to govern.	因此，现在的冲突本质上是哈马斯发动的一场先发制人的战争—由于无法无天和强盗行径、好战的无派别民兵组织、部落和家族以及毫无理性的屠杀而愈演愈烈—目的是防止法塔赫被国际社会转变为一个对其统治的民主权力发起挑战的强大敌手。


For Hamas, this is a life-and-death struggle.	对哈马斯而言这是一场生死攸关的斗争。


It has not shrunk from bombarding Abbas’s presidential compound, attacking Fatah’s command centers, and targeting Fatah military leaders like Rashid Abu Shbak, the commander of Fatah’s internal security and many others, all of them lieutenants of the supreme Fatah military authority in the Gaza strip, Mohamed Dahlan.	它不只是轰炸阿巴斯的总统官邸、攻击法塔赫的指挥中心并将如法塔赫内部安全指挥官Rashid Abu Shbak等许多法塔赫军方领导人锁定为目标。 他们都是加沙地带的法塔赫军队首长Mohamed Dahlan的麾下大将。


Hamas’s determination to assert its authority can be gauged by the desecrated corpses of Fatah fighters, many of them with bullets fired at their heads, a practice dubbed “confirmation of death.”	哈马斯树立其权威的决心可以通过惨死的法塔赫战士的尸体来衡量。 他们许多人都是头部中枪毙命。


The rocket attacks against Israeli territory are a transparent attempt to divert attention and rally the masses around Hamas as the true champions of the Palestinian cause.	这种做法被称为“确保死亡”。 对以色列领土的火箭袭击明显是意在转移注意力并使哈马斯能以巴勒斯坦事业的真正英雄的形象获得民众支持。


Tragically, all this is not only about human victims, but also about the Palestinians’ political horizon.	具有悲剧意味的是，所有这一切都不仅只关乎受害的人们，还关乎巴勒斯坦人的政治眼界。


Three times in their history – in 1937,1947, and 2000 – the Palestinians were offered a state, and three times their leaders failed to meet the challenge – admittedly never an easy one for a nation built on such an unwavering ethos of dispossession.	在历史上有三次—1937年、1947年和2000年—巴勒斯坦人被给予了建立国家的机会，而这三次其领导人都没能应对挑战—诚然对于一个如此牢固建立在一种夺取式的精神气质上的民族而言，这决非易事。


Today, when America finally understands how vital an Israeli-Palestinian peace is for its fortunes in the broader Middle East, and the Arab world is for the first time committed to pursuing a comprehensive settlement with Israel, anarchic Palestinian politics is making a decision for peace well nigh impossible.	今天，当美国终于明白以巴和平对于其在更广大中东地区的利益有多么的重要，当阿拉伯世界第一次致力于寻求与以色列的全面解决方案时，无政府式的巴勒斯坦政治却使得和平决策几乎成了不可完成的任务。


However vibrant, Israel’s democracy is not exactly manageable or predictable, either.	不论表面上如何生气勃勃，以色列的民主也并不是易于管理和预测的。


But although Prime Minister Ehud Olmert might seek to regain his popular credibility by a major new peace demarche, the two-headed Palestinian Authority, always a dubious partner in the eyes of the Israelis, is now more suspect than ever.	虽然奥尔默特总理力图通过一项新的重大和平方针来重塑其公信力，但双头的巴勒斯坦权力机构（在以色列人眼中向���就是一个可疑的伙伴）现在比以前任何时候都难以信任。


“Every day that goes by only causes more people to wish for the renewal of the Israeli occupation of Gaza.	“日子一天天过去，只会使更多的人希望以色列恢复对加沙的占领。


Let the Jews come already and save us!”	让犹太人来拯救我们吧！


But that despairing hope, uttered by a desperate Gazan, will not materialize.	”但这样一个由一位绝望的加沙居民所表达的最后一线希望不会成为现实。


Israel will avoid at all costs a large ground incursion.	以色列会尽其所能避免大规模的地面进攻。


Yet, engaged in a war driven by fury and vengeance, the Israelis are now focused again on a manhunt for gang chieftains, targeted killings of Hamas squads, and the arrest of its political leaders, not on peace overtures.	然而，置身于一场由愤怒和复仇驱动的战争之中，以色列现在又开始致力于追捕帮派头领，锁定并歼灭哈马斯的军事组织并逮捕其政治领导人，而不是热衷于谱写和平的序曲。


Only a dramatic move by external powers can still save Gaza from becoming a second Mogadishu and both Palestinians and Israelis from a total war that would only breed more rage and desperation.	只有外部力量的重大行动还能让加沙不至于变成第二个摩加迪沙，并使巴勒斯坦人和以色列人不至于陷入一场带来更多仇恨与绝望的全面战争。


For the building blocks of a renewed peace process to be sustainable, an international force must be deployed along Gaza’s border with Egypt to prevent the constant smuggling of weapons and isolate the conflict.	为了使重新启动的和平进程具有可持续性，应该在加沙与埃及的边界部署一支国际（维和）部队以防止持续的武器走私并隔离冲突双方。


Simultaneously, the international community must help make the unity government work by recognizing Hamas’ right to govern in exchange for a performance-based stability plan.	同时，国际社会必须通过承认哈马斯的统治权使联合政府得以正常运转，从而换取一个以表现为基础的稳定性计划。


The Fragility of a Flat World	平坦世界的脆弱


The world is flat!	世界是平坦的！


So says the columnist Thomas Friedman, who chose that provocative title for his bestselling book to awaken people to the dramatic effects that technology is having on the world economy.	专栏作家托马斯•弗里德曼（Thomas Friedman）如是说。 弗里德曼为其畅销书选择这个极富煽动性的书名是为了使人们意识到技术对世界经济产生的惊人影响。


Distance is shrinking.	距离正在缩短。


Geographical barriers no longer provide easy protection.	地理屏障不再能轻而易举地提供保障。


Manufacturing workers and high-tech professionals alike in Europe and America are being challenged by global competition.	欧洲和美国的制造业工人和高科技专业人士都不得不面对全球竞争的挑战。


Western consumers who call a local company are likely to speak to someone in India.	西方消费者给当地公司打电话时，和他们对话的员工很可能正远在印度。


Skeptics have pointed to the limits of Friedman’s metaphor.	怀疑论者指出了弗里德曼比喻所存在的限度。


As one put it, the world is not flat, but “spiky.”	正如有人所说，世界不是平坦，而是“高低不平”。


A contour map of economic activity in the world would show mountains of prosperity and many ravines of deprivation.	世界经济活动的等高线图显示出繁荣的山峰和匮乏的低谷。


Moreover, distance is far from dead.	不仅如此，距离还远远没有失去作用。


Even neighbors with low tariff barriers, like Canada and the United States, trade more internally than across borders.	即便是关税屏障较低的邻国，像加拿大和美国，其国内贸易也远多于跨境贸易。


Seattle and Vancouver are close geographically, but Vancouver trades more with distant Toronto than with nearby Seattle.	西雅图和温哥华的地理距离很近，但温哥华与距离更远的多伦多的贸易却远远高于临近的西雅图。


Such criticism notwithstanding, Friedman makes an important point.	尽管存在着这样的批评，弗里德曼还是提出了一个重要的观点。


Globalization, which can be defined as interdependence at inter-continental distances, is as old as human history. Witness the migration of peoples and religions, or trade along the ancient silk route that connected medieval Europe and Asia.	全球化可以定义为不同大陆之间的相互依赖，它的历史和人类的历史一样悠久，见证了种族和宗教的迁移，也见证了中世纪欧洲和亚洲之间古老丝绸之路沿途的贸易。


But globalization today is different, because it is becoming quicker and thicker.	但今天的全球化有所不同，它的发展速度更快，程度也更加深入。


After the first trans-Atlantic cable in 1868, Europe and America could communicate in a minute.	1868年第一条跨大西洋海地电缆铺通后，欧洲和美国可以在短短一分钟内进行交流。


In 1919, the economist John Maynard Keynes described the possibility of an Englishman in London using a telephone to order goods from around the world to be delivered to his house by the afternoon.	1919年，经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）描绘了住在伦敦的英国人用电话从世界各地定购商品，然后就在家里坐等下午接收。


But Keynes’s Englishman was wealthy and thus exceptional.	但凯恩斯的英国人属于腰缠万贯的特例。


Today, hundreds of millions of people around the world have access to global goods in their local supermarkets.	今天，全球成百上千万人可以在当地超市里买到来自世界各地的商品。


Similarly, as recently as two decades ago, instantaneous global communication existed, but was economically out of reach for most people.	与此相似，20年前曾经出现过即时的全球通讯，但在经济上却超过了绝大多数人的承受能力。


Now, virtually anyone can enter an Internet café and enjoy a capability that was once available only to governments, multinational corporations, and a few individuals or organizations with large budgets.	现在，几乎任何人都可以走进一家网吧，获得以前仅仅由政府、跨国公司和拥有大笔预算的少数个人或机构才能掌握的能力。


Tremendous declines in computing, communication, and transport costs have democratized technology.	计算、通讯和运输成本的大幅下降使得技术日益普及。


Only a decade ago, two-thirds of all Internet users were in the US.	就在10年前，三分之二的互联网用户还都集中在美国。


Today, less than a quarter are located there.	而今天，美国的互联网用户占全球用户的比例还不到四分之一。


Knowledge is power, and more people have access to information today than at any time in human history.	知识就是力量，而今天掌握信息的人数已经创下了人类历史上的最高记录。


Non-state actors now have capabilities that were once limited to governments.	非国家机构现在拥有了以前只由政府掌握的能力。


The nation-state is not about to be replaced as the dominant institution of world politics, but it will have to share the stage with more actors, including organizations like Oxfam, celebrities like Bono, and transnational terrorist networks like Al Qaeda.	民族国家作为世界政治主体的地位暂时还不会改变，但却必须学会与更多的参与者共享这个巨大的舞台，这些参与者包括牛津饥荒救济委员会这样的机构、博诺这样的名人，还有基地组织这样的跨国恐怖网络。


But flattening is reversible.	但这种平坦化的进程是可逆的。


It has happened before.	以前也曾发生过类似的情况。


The world economy was highly integrated in 1914, but economic interdependence declined during the next three decades.	1914年世界经济曾经高度融合，但接下来的30年中世界各国在经济上的相互依赖不断下降。


The global economy did not recover that same level of integration until 1970, and even then it remained divided by the Iron Curtain.	直到1970年，全球经济才恢复到曾经有过的融合程度，而且当时仍然受到铁幕的重重阻隔。


World War I was the trigger that set off the reversal, with economic globalization declining while military globalization increased, as witnessed by two world wars and a global cold war.	一次大战是造成逆转的导火索，两次世界大战和一次全球冷战期间，人们见证了经济全球化的降低和军事全球化的提升。


This reflected deeper problems of domestic inequality created by nineteenth-century economic progress.	这反应了19世纪经济发展造成国内不平等等更深层次问题。


Politics did not keep pace, and the result was the rise of pathological ideologies – fascism and communism – that divided nations and the world.	政治没有能够适应经济的发展，其结果是不正常的意识形态¾法西斯主义和共产主义盛极一时¾这种病态的发展理念造成了国家和世界的四分五裂。


The creation of the welfare state in Western countries after World War II helped to create a safety net for people disadvantaged by economic change, thereby encouraging them to accept the return of international economic interdependence.	二次大战后西方的福利国家制度为在经济变革中受到损害的人们织就了一张安全保护网，以此来鼓励他们接受国际经济相互依存所带来的回报。


Some analysts see China playing a role today similar to Germany’s role in the twentieth century.	有些分析家认为今天中国所扮演的角色与20世纪的德国非常相似。


A rising power, beset with internal inequality, turns to nationalism and challenges the dominant power, provoking a war that turns back the progress of economic globalization.	它们是为国内不平��所困扰的正在崛起的力量，不停地向民族主义的方向发展、向处于主导地位的力量发起挑战，最终引发逆转经济全球化进展的世界战争。


While the American and Chinese economies are highly interdependent today, so, too, were Germany and Britain before 1914.	虽然美国和中国的经济今天高度相互依赖，但1914年以前的英国和德国经济又何尝不是如此。


But the analogy is imperfect.	但这样的推理并不完善。


Germany had surpassed Britain in industrial production by 1900.	1900年后，德国的工业生产已经超越了英国。


Even at its current high rates of growth, China’s economy is unlikely to equal that of the US for at least two more decades.	但是即便保持目前这种高增长率，中国的经济在至少20年内都不太可能赶上美国。


The greater threat to a flat world is likely to come from the non-state and transnational forces that have been unleashed by the diffusion of technology.	对平坦世界造成威胁更大的可能是技术传播所释放的非国家和跨国力量。


On September 11, 2001, a non-state network killed more Americans in a surprise attack than the government of Japan did at Pearl Harbor in 1941.	2001年9月11日，一个非国家网络在一次毫无征兆的袭击中所杀害的美国人数量比1941年日本政府的珍珠港袭击还要多。


I have called this the privatization of war.	我把这种现象称之为战争的私有化。


If such actors obtain nuclear and biological materials, the world will look very different.	如果这样的势力掌握了核武器和生物材料，世界将会发生翻天覆地的变化。


Borders will become harder to cross for both people and goods.	那时人员和商品跨越国境会变得更加困难。


And if such actors disrupt the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, home to two-thirds of the world’s reserves, a global depression like that of the 1930’s could strengthen protectionism further.	如果上述势力破坏了占世界石油储量三分之二的波斯湾的石油输出，像20世纪30年代那样的全球经济衰退可以更进一步增强保护主义的力量。


Globalization has two driving forces: technology and policy.	技术和政策是全球化的两大驱动力。


Thus far, policy has reinforced the flattening effects of technology.	迄今为止，政策都进一步巩固了技术的平坦化效果。


As the world’s largest economy, the US has taken the lead in promoting policies that reduce barriers.	作为世界最大的经济实体，美国在推动消除障碍的政策方面占据了领导地位。


But the events described above could reverse such policies.	但上面描述的事件可能会逆转这种政策。


Some critics of globalization might welcome such an outcome.	某些全球化的批评者可能愿意看到这样的结果。


But the result, as we saw after 1914, would be the worst of both worlds – reversal of the economic globalization that spreads technology and power, but reinforcement of negative dimensions of military and ecological globalization, such as war, terror, climate change, and the spread of infectious diseases.	但这样的结果，正如我们在1914年后看到的那样，将会导致在两个领域出现最糟糕的状况¾那就是传播技术和力量的经济全球化趋势出现逆转，同时军事和生态全球化的消极后果进一步巩固，比如战争、恐怖、气候变化和传染病的传播。


In that case, the flat world could become a desert.	如果真是这样，平坦的世界会成为一片沙漠。


The French Cul de Sac	法国死胡同


PARIS – As France’s presidential election looms, the country is approaching a breaking point.	巴黎—随着总统大选的临近，法国正在走向临界点。


For three decades, under both the right and the left, the country has pursued the same incompatible, if not contradictory, goals.	三十年来，不管右翼还是左翼上台，法国都在追求互不相容（如果不是截然相反的话）的目标。


With the sovereign-debt crisis pushing French banks – and thus the French economy – to the wall, something will have to give, and soon.	随着主权债务危机将法国银行（以及法国经济）一步步逼到墙角，法国必须尽快拿出点什么来。


When the crunch comes – almost certainly in the year or two following the election – it will cause radical, wrenching change, perhaps even more far-reaching than Charles de Gaulle’s coup d’état, which led to the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958.	当动荡发生时——几乎可以肯定，大选后一两年内必然会发生——将出现彻底的痛苦变革，也许连1958年奠定第五共和国的戴高乐政变都要小巫见大巫。


Most French politicians and bureaucrats call such notions scaremongering.	大部分法国政治家和官僚声称，这纯属扰乱人心的谣言。


After all, aren’t key indicators like debt ratios or budget-deficit trends worse in the United States and Britain?	毕竟，像债务比率或预算赤字趋势这样指标，美国和英国不是更加糟糕吗？


Indeed, France’s predicament might seem comparable with the “Anglo Saxons,” were it not for the French political class’s beloved baby, the euro.	事实上，要不是法国政坛的宠儿欧元作祟的话，法国的日子绝不会比“盎格鲁-撒克逊”们难过。


While the euro has not caused France’s economic problems, its politicians’ commitment to the single currency represents an insurmountable barrier to solving them.	欧元并没有造成法国的经济问题，但法国政客对单一货币的承诺却给解决问题造成了不可逾越的障碍。


The basic problem is that the country’s super-generous welfare state (public spending amounts to about 57% of GDP in 2010, compared to 51% in the United Kingdom and 48% in Germany) stifles the growth needed for the euro to remain viable.	基本问题是，法国极其慷慨的福利国家制度（2010年公共支出占GDP的57%左右，英国为51%，德国为48%）扼杀了维持欧元所需要的增长。


The most serious structural flaws concern high payroll taxes and labor-market regulation, which make it difficult – or at least prohibitively expensive – for firms to reduce their workforce when business conditions worsen.	最严重的结构性缺陷在于高工资税和劳动力市场管制，这使得企业难以在商业景气度恶化时裁员（或者说裁员的成本太高）。


The OECD reports that in 2010, France’s “tax wedge” (income taxes plus employee and employer social-security contributions minus cash transfers as a percentage of total labor costs) was at least 13 percentage points above the OECD average at every level of household income.	经合组织的报告显示，2010年，法国的“税楔”（即所得税加上雇员和雇主的社会保障支出再减去现金转移支付占总劳动成本的百分比）在所有水平的家庭收入上都要高出经合组织平均水平至少13个百分点。


The result has been elevated unit labor costs relative to France’s peer group (especially Germany) and stubbornly high unemployment.	其结果就是法国单位劳动成本相对邻国（特别是德国）的高企，失业率也居高不下。


During Valery Giscard d’Estaing’s presidency in the 1970’s, unemployment rose every year, reaching 6.3% by 1980.	在20世纪70年代德斯坦任法国总统期间，失业率每年都在上升，到1980年时已达到6.


François Mitterrand promised rapid growth and lower unemployment when he came to power in 1981, but presided over an economic slowdown and rising unemployment.	3%。 1981年密特朗上台后，承诺要让经济快速增长，让失业率有所下降，但实际情况是经济减速和失业上升。


By 1997, unemployment reached 11.4%, and dipped below 8% in only one year since then (2008).	到1997年，失业率达到了11. 4%，此后至今，只有2008年的失业率在8%以下。


High unit labor costs and unemployment rates are responsible, in turn, for reducing the trend rate of economic growth, mainly owing to under-utilized labor, while the combination of lackluster growth and an ever-mounting welfare burden has resulted in chronic budget deficits.	反过来，高单位劳动陈本和失业率又压低了经济的趋势增长率（因劳动力利用率不足），而增长不振加上福利支出的不听增加又导致了顽固不化的预算赤字。


The last surplus was in 1974.	法国上一次出现预算盈余是在1974年。


The current election campaign is accordingly centered on France’s fiscal position.	因此，此次大选竞争的焦点便在于法国的财政状况。


Everyone agrees that deficit reduction is required, while differing on how to go about it.	所有人都同意，削减赤字是必须的，但如何实现则众说纷纭。


Sarkozy’s proposed cure is to boost growth by reducing the tax burden on employers, while simultaneously hiking the rate of value-added tax.	萨科齐的药方是通过降低雇主税负提振增长，同时增加增值税税率。


His main opponent, Socialist leader François Hollande, would impose higher taxes mainly on the wealthy and the financial sector, but also on big business.	其主要竞争对手社会党领导人奥朗德则提出增税——主要是针对富人和金融部门，但也涉及大企业。


With the only effective solutions – full-blown eurozone political union, or abandoning the euro – ruled out, muddling through is all that is left.	唯一有效的解决之道——建立完整的欧元区政治联盟，或抛弃欧元——根本无法成为现实，于是和稀泥就成了唯一的办法。


Another name for this approach is “transfer union,” which implies relentless economic austerity and declining living standards, because strong countries – first and foremost, Germany – are determined to limit their liability for bailing out deficit countries by making all transfers conditional on tough budget retrenchment.	和稀泥的一个别名是“转移联盟”，这意味着无情的经济紧缩和生活质量的下降，因为强健国家——以德国为首——已决定限制自己援助赤字国的义务，任何转移都必须以严厉的预算整顿为条件。


At the same time, financial markets are forcing fiscal retrenchment on governments, as will the planned new fiscal treaty (on which Germany, among others, insisted).	与此同时，金融市场正在迫使各国政府采取财政整顿措施，计划中的新财政条约（为德国和其他一些国家所坚持）亦然。


Demand is therefore being drained out of the eurozone economies, with stronger external demand, stemming from the euro’s depreciation against other major currencies, unable to offset the effect on growth.	因此，欧元区经济体的需求在进一步枯竭，而欧元相对其他主要货币贬值带来的外部需求提振又不足以抵消增长受到的影响。


The French government expects budget revenues to match all spending except debt service by 2014.	法国政府期望在2014年实现预算与支出的匹配（不包括债务维持成本）。


But that forecast assumes continued growth, whereas France is slipping into recession.	但这一预计建立在持续增长的基础上，而眼下法国正在滑向衰退。


So the budget deficit will persist, and more retrenchment will be required.	因此，预算赤字将会持续，法国需要进一步的削减支出。


Will the public grin and bear it, or demand a radical change of direction?	民众会毫无怨言地接受，还是要求彻底转变方向？


In the latter scenario, the change would be delivered either by a part of the mainstream political class that breaks ranks, or through a successful challenge by a political outsider, whether National Front leader Marine Le Pen on the right or Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Left Front.	若发生后一种情形，那么改变要么来自打破现有顺序的某个主流政治阶级； 要么来自成功上位的新的政治阶级，比如右翼的国民阵线领导人勒庞和梅朗雄的左翼阵线。


Both parties are campaigning on an anti-euro, protectionist platform.	这两派均持有反欧元的保护主义立场。


Sarkozy has adopted a statesmanlike pose, as befits the incumbent, warning voters of the hard grind to come, such as the need to work longer hours for lower hourly pay.	萨科齐倒是显示了现任领导人应有的风度，警告选民做好艰苦奋斗的准备，比如接受更长的工作时间和更低的时薪。


But selling to the French public painful structural change as the price to be paid for “Europe” no longer works.	但高速法国公众痛苦的结构性变革乃是为“欧洲”所不得不付出的代价这一招已经不再灵验了。


Hollande’s program, meanwhile, implies that pain can be avoided altogether by loosening European constraints.	与此同时，奥朗德的方案意味着痛苦可以通过放松欧洲约束来避免。


He has indicated that, if elected, he would re-negotiate the fiscal treaty and seek to alter the statutes of the European Central Bank – perhaps as an early sign of willingness to break with European orthodoxy.	他声称，如若当选，将重启财政条约谈判，并寻求改变欧洲央行的地位——这或许是他准备与欧洲正统决裂的先声。


He is also promising to emulate his predecessors by bringing Germany around to the French point of view – that is, use German fiscal transfers.	他还承诺，将效仿前几任总统，让德国为法国的观点买单——即利用德国的财政转移。


That way, France could hold onto its European project at a lower medium-term cost to domestic living standards.	如此一来，法国就既能完成其欧洲计划，又能降低国民生活标准的中期成本。


This is the sort of trick that Hollande’s mentor, Mitterrand, was able to pull off.	这是奥朗德的导师密特朗曾经成功使用的计谋。


But that was possible not because of Mitterrand’s superior wiles, but rather because France had a stronger position vis à vis Germany than it does today.	但密特朗之所以成功，并不是此计甚妙，而是因为当时的法国具有比如今更大的对德国的优势。


France’s response to the tension between preserving the European project (equated with the single currency) and avoiding a chronically depressed economy will be to put off the day of reckoning for as long as possible.	法国如何应对完成其欧洲计划（即单一货币）和避免长期经济压抑之间的矛盾要到不得不做出抉择的那一天才会有分晓。


This dead-end strategy will feature vain attempts to game Germany and desperate economic expedients, such as the essentially coercive capture of domestic savings to finance government debt.	这一死胡同战略将以与德国的徒劳博弈和绝望的经济实验为特征，比如以实质强制性的国民储蓄为政府债务融资。


But the day of reckoning will come, and France’s ruling establishment will be judged harshly when it does.	但总有一天，法国人民要做出抉择，到那一天，法国的现有机制将面临严厉的审判。


The French Don’t Get It	法国人闹不明白


CAMBRIDGE – The French government just doesn’t seem to understand the real implications of the euro, the single currency that France shares with 16 other European Union countries.	美国剑桥——法国政府似乎还没有明白欧元——法国于其他16个欧盟国家共同使用的单一货币——的真正意义。


French officials have now reacted to the prospect of a credit rating downgrade by lashing out at Britain.	现在，对于自己遭到信用降级的前景，法国官员的反应是猛烈抨击英国。


The head of the central bank, Christian Noyer, has argued that the rating agencies should begin by downgrading Britain.	法国央行行长努瓦耶（Christian Noyer）指出，评级机构要降级应该从英国开始降。


The finance minister, Francois Baroin, recently declared that, “You’d rather be French than British in economic terms.”	财政部长巴鲁音（Francois Baroin）最近宣称，“就经济而言，宁可当法国人，不愿当英国人。


And even the French Prime minister, Francois Fillar, noted that Britain had higher debt and larger deficits than France.	”甚至法国总理菲永也指出，英国的债务和赤字都高于法国。


French officials apparently don’t recognize the importance of the fact that Britain is outside the eurozone, and therefore has its own currency, which means that there is no risk that Britain will default on its debt.	法国官员显然没有认识到英国处于欧元区之外这一事实的重要性。 英国处于欧元区之外，所以有其自身的货币，这意味着英国没有债务违约风险。


When interest and principal on British government debt come due, the British government can always create additional pounds to meet those obligations.	当英国政府债务本息到期时，英国政府总是可以通过创造更多的英镑来履行自己的义务。


By contrast, the French government and the French central bank cannot create euros.	相反，法国政府和法国央行就不能创造欧元了。


If investors are unwilling to finance the French budget deficit – that is, if France cannot borrow to finance that deficit – France will be forced to default.	如果投资者不愿为法国预算赤字融资——也就是说，如果法国无法通过借贷来为赤字融资——那么法国就将被迫违约。


That is why the market treats French bonds as riskier and demands a higher interest rate, even though France’s budget deficit is 5.8% of its GDP, whereas Britain’s budget deficit is 8.8% of GDP.	这就是为何市场认定法国债券风险较高、因此要求更高利率的原因，尽管法国预算赤字占GDP的比重为5. 8%，低于英国的8.


There is a second reason why the British situation is less risky than that of France.	英国的状况没有法国危险还有第二大理由。


Britain can reduce its current-account deficit by causing the British pound to weaken relative to the dollar and the euro, which the French, again, cannot do without their own currency.	英国可以通过让英镑相对美元和欧元贬值来减少经常项目出资，而法国不能这么做，因为它没有自己的货币。


Indeed, that is precisely what Britain has been doing with its monetary policy: bringing the sterling-euro and sterling-dollar exchange rates down to more competitive levels.	事实上，这正是英国货币政策所一直在做的：压低英镑-欧元和英镑-美元汇率以获得更高的竞争力水平。


The eurozone fiscal deficits and current-account deficits are now the most obvious symptoms of the euro’s failure.	欧元区财政赤字和经常项目赤字是欧元失灵的最显著症状。


But the credit crisis in Europe, and the weakness of eurozone banks, may be even more important.	但欧洲的信贷危机和欧元区银行的疲软可能才是更重要的问题。


The persistent unemployment differentials within the eurozone are yet another reflection of the adverse effect of imposing a single currency and a single monetary policy on a heterogeneous group of countries.	欧元区内部失业率的持久差异是对情况各异的一组国家实施单一货币和单一货币政策所带来的副作用的又一反映。


President Nicolas Sarkozy and other French politicians are no doubt unhappy that the recent European summit failed to advance the cause of further EU political integration.	法国总统萨科齐和其他法国政客毫无疑问对最近的欧洲峰会没能就欧洲政治整合的进一步进展取得一致感到十分恼火。


It was French officials Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman who launched the initiative for European political union just after World War II with the call for a United States of Europe.	二战一结束，法国官员莫内（Jean Monnet）和舒曼（Robert Shuman）就提出了建立欧洲政治联盟、成立欧罗巴合众国（United States of Europe）的动议。


The French regarded the creation of the euro as an important symbol of progress toward that goal.	法国人将欧元的创造视为朝这一方向的一次重大进展。


In the 1960’s, Jacques Delors, then the French finance minister, pressed for a single currency with a report, “One Market, One Money,” which implied that the European free-trade agreement would work only if its members used a single currency.	20世纪60年代，法国财政张部长德劳（Jacques Delors）就在一份报告中提出了单一货币的构想：“一个市场，一种货币”，暗示欧洲自由贸易协定只有在其成员国使用单一货币的情况下才能见效。


For the French, achieving a European political union is a way to increase Europe’s role in the world and France’s role within Europe.	对法国人来说，成立欧洲政治联盟是一条增强法国在世界以及欧洲内部作用的好办法。


But that goal looks harder to reach now than it did before the beginning of the European crisis.	但欧洲危机爆发后，这一目标实现起来更加困难了。


By attacking Britain and seeking to increase British borrowing costs, France is only creating more conflict between itself and Britain, while creating more tensions within Europe as a whole.	法国攻击英国、试图增加英国借贷成本的行为只能增加其自身和英国之间的冲突，同时也在欧洲整体之内创造了更多的冲突。


Looking ahead, stopping the eurozone financial crisis does not require political union or a commitment of German financial support.	展望未来，停止欧元区金融危机并不要求政治联盟或德国的财政支持承诺。


It depends on individual eurozone countries – especially Italy, Spain, and France – making the changes in their domestic spending and taxation that will convince global financial investors that they are moving toward budget surpluses and putting their debt-to-GDP ratios on a downward path.	停止危机取决于欧元区个体国家——特别是意大利、西班牙和法国——在国内支出和税收方面的改变，让全球金融投资者相信它们在朝扭转预算赤字、降低债务-GDP比率的方向上努力。


France should focus its attention on its domestic fiscal problems and the dire situation of its commercial banks, rather than lashing out at Britain or calling for political changes that are not going to occur.	法国应该把注意力转向国内财政问题和其商业银行的不妙境况，而不是抨击英国或呼吁不可能发生的政治变革。


The French Death Rattle	法国的垂死挣扎


PARIS – Moody’s announcement in November that it had downgraded France’s sovereign-credit rating by one notch from its AAA rating prompted one blogger to poke fun at rating agencies’ tendency either to get things completely wrong or to recognize suddenly a crisis that had long been staring them in the face.	巴黎—11月，穆迪公司宣布将法国主权信用评级从AAA级下调一档，某博客博主讽刺道，评级机构总是要么把事情完全弄错，要么突然识别出在其眼皮底下存在多时的危机。


The blogger joked, “If this recognition by a rating agency that France has problems is an example of the first failing, a recovery must have begun; if it is an example of the second failing, the country faces a dire reckoning.”	这位博主开玩笑说：“如果说评级机构意认定法国存在问题是第一种情况的例子的话，那么复苏想必已经开始了； 如果是第二种情况，那么法国将面对可怕的清算。


French President François Hollande’s government claims to have awoken to the threat.	法国总统奥朗德政府宣称已经认识到威胁。


In a recent interview, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici likened the measures being undertaken to reduce the country’s debt burden and restore competitiveness to a “Copernican revolution...because these choices were not clear for a French government or for a center-left government.”	在最近的采访中，财政部长莫斯科维奇说，法国已经采取的减轻债务负担和重塑竞争力的措施堪比“哥白尼革命……因为对于一个中左翼法国政府，这样的选择并不是显而易见的。 ”


As proof of this new realism, the government has been trumpeting its response to the set of policy recommendations that an expert panel led by the business executive Louis Gallois presented two weeks before the downgrade.	作为这一新现实主义的例证，法国政府大肆吹嘘其对企业高管加洛瓦（Louis Gallois）领导的一个专家小组在降级发生两周前所给出的一组政策措施的反应。


The response is centered on a payroll-tax cut, which will be offset by spending cuts and a higher value-added tax.	反应的核心是降低工资税，而税收的减少将用支出削减和增值税的提高抵消。


In the run-up to the downgrade, an analyst at Moody’s said that the decision would be based largely on whether the government heeded the Gallois report’s call for a “competitiveness shock” to France’s economy.	穆迪公司的一位分析师说，降级决定大体上是根据政府是否留意加洛瓦报告对法国经济“竞争力冲击”的呼吁。


The downgrade thus suggests that Moody’s considered the government’s response insufficient.	因此，降级表明穆迪公司认为政府的反应是不充分的。


In fact, this negative verdict barely scratches the surface of France’s predicament.	事实上，这一消极结论紧紧抓住了法国窘境的表面。


The full picture emerges only after examining the motivations behind the government’s inadequate response.	完全的图景只有在考察政府反应不充分背后的动机后才能看清。


The underlying explanation lies in the culture and prejudices of France’s governing elite, the so-called grands commis formed by the National Civil Service School of which Hollande – like virtually all of his predecessors, except Nicolas Sarkozy – is an alumnus.	关键的解释在于法国治国精英的文化和偏见，即奥朗德——以及除萨科齐之外的几乎所有前任——亦是其中一员的国家公务员学校所塑造的“宏大承诺”（grands commis）。


In this cloistered world, a prosperous and just society requires a state-directed economy.	在这个与世隔绝的世界中，繁荣而公正的社会需要政府主导的经济。


This dedication to dirigisme has spawned among the ruling elite a sense of entitlement and hostility to business.	对国家干预执着在执政精英之间造成了特权感和对商界的敌意。


Indeed, for France’s political leaders, business amounts to a zero-sum competition to capture a higher share of total value added for owners and managers, at the expense of labor.	事实上，对法国政治领导人来说，商业无非是零和竞争，所有者和管理者追求从总价值中攫取更大份额，而受伤的则是劳动力。


Criticism of this anti-business approach is usually dismissed in France as “ultra-liberal” flailing against the “social model” that the French nation has embraced.	批评反商业观点通常会被法国人斥为“极端自由派”，与法兰西民族所信奉的“社会模式”格格不入。


But the example set by Scandinavian countries, which combine a generous welfare state with pro-business policies and traditions, repudiates such claims.	但斯堪的纳维亚国家所树立的榜样——慷慨的福利国家和支持商业和传统的政策的结合——让法国模式相形见绌。


The main difference between the failing French model and the more successful Scandinavian approach lies not in welfare “outputs” (many public services in France, such as the health-care system, remain among the best in the world), but in how they are financed.	失败的法国模式和成功的斯堪的纳维亚模式之间的主要区别不在于福利“产出”（在法国，医疗体系等诸多公共服务堪称世界最佳），而在于它们的资金来源。


The Scandinavian social compact rests on the understanding that citizens must pay high taxes in exchange for public services.	斯堪的纳维亚式社会契约的基础是公民必须付出高额税收换取公共福利。


While French public spending – which stood at 56% of GDP in 2011 – is at or above Scandinavian levels, French households pay lower tax rates on consumption and personal income.	法国公共支出并不亚于斯堪的纳维亚水平（高达GDP的56%），但法国家庭所付出的消费和个人所得税率更低。


The gap is bridged by a mixture of deficit spending and high taxation on employment.	其中的差额通过赤字支出和用工方面的税收弥补。


Relentless government borrowing and high payroll taxes (employer-paid social security) have long sustained citizens’ illusion that they are getting something for nothing, while perpetuating successive governments’ misconception that taxing business is a painless way of financing welfare and public services.	长期以来，无节制的政府借贷和高昂的工资税（雇主支付的社会保障）给公民造成了一种幻觉，认为他们可以无偿得到什么，同时也导致政府长期以来错误地认为对商业活动征税是一种无痛的福利和公共服务融资方式。


But it is increasingly apparent that this approach has undermined public finances and competitiveness – and that households end up picking up the tab.	但越来越显而易见的是，这一办法破坏了公共财政和竞争力，而最终掏腰包的还是家庭。


(In fact, chronically high unemployment has meant that they have been doing so for years.)	（事实上，居高不下的失业率意味着他们已经买了好几年的单了。


Now, citizens are facing higher taxes and cuts to public services.	）如今，法国公民面临着更高的税率和公共服务的削减。


Defenders of the French system quibble over labor-cost statistics in their efforts to prove that France is not so different from its main European trading partners.	法国制度的捍卫者用劳动力成本统计数字为依据为这一行为开脱，以证明法国于其主要欧洲贸易伙伴并没有什么区别。


But the facts of the last decade – including a significant loss of export-market share and a 5%-of-GDP deterioration in the current-account balance – paint a different picture.	但过去十年的事实——包括出口市场份额的急剧下降和占GDP的5%的经常项目赤字——描绘的是一幅不同的画面。


Moreover, this line of defense misses the point.	此外，这样的辩解根本没有抓住重点。


The burden of payroll taxes, together with overweening labor-market regulation, stifles entrepreneurship.	工资税负担和过度的劳动力市场管制一道，扼杀了企业家精神。


If Hollande’s tax hikes – on income (including a temporary 75% tax rate for the country’s wealthiest households), dividends, capital gains, and capital assets – are not enough to deter entrepreneurs, the cost of hiring workers and the difficulty of firing them remain powerful disincentives.	如果奥朗德的增税计划——提高所得税（包括对法国最富有家庭征收75%的临时税收）、红利税、资本利得税和资本资产税率——还不足以妨碍企业家精神的话，雇用工人的成本以及解雇工人的困难也构成了强大的反向激励。


Far from signifying a pro-business shift, Hollande’s government’s response to the Gallois report reflects the French elite’s enduring interventionist mentality.	奥朗德政府对加洛瓦报告的反应远非向支持商界转变的信号，而是反映了法国精英顽固的干预主义思维。


Instead of implementing deep and permanent cuts in payroll taxes on businesses, the government will give companies a €20 billion ($26 billion) income-tax credit over the next two years.	法国政府并没有持久地大幅度削减企业工资税，而是将在未来两年中授予公司200亿欧元的所得税减免。


And, with companies required to apply the rebated cash to investment and job creation, the government has portrayed the measure as a cut in taxes on labor that will boost employment.	公司被要求将减少的现金用于投资和就业创造，政府因此将该措施描述为对劳动力减税并将提振就业。


But a temporary tax break cannot change incentives.	但临时性税收减免不会改变激励。


Furthermore, companies will not receive the cash until 2014-2015, owing to the complexity of France’s tax administration.	此外，由于法国复杂的税收体系，公司直到2014—2015年之前都不会得到现金。


And, when they do get it, the state cannot possibly know that reinvesting in the same enterprise will be more beneficial than, say, paying out dividends that shareholders could then use to finance a new venture.	而当它们终于收到现金时，国家并不能确保同一企业的再投资一定比发放红利（股东通常用它来为新企业融资）益处更大。


Once again, French lawmakers are acting on the conviction that they know better than market participants.	法国立法者再一次认为自己比市场参与者懂得更多。


Apart from promises to reduce employment regulation, all of the new measures boil down to officials directing state money and subsidies to companies and projects of their choosing.	所有措施都不是意在减少雇工监管，而是可以归结为官员决定国家资金和公司补贴的去向，替公司决定投资项目。


So the death rattle of the French economic model continues.	因此，法国经济模式将继续垂死挣扎。


What remains to be seen is how the end will come.	有待观察的只是何时毙命。


And, whether it comes in the form of a capital strike by foreign bondholders, or of domestic labor strikes and wider social and political unrest, France’s leaders remain entirely unprepared for the inevitable.	不论最后的结局是外国债权人发动资本袭击，还是国内劳动者开展罢工和更广泛的社会和政治动荡，法国领导人都对不可避免的结果完全没有准备。


The French Socialists’ New European Identity	法国社会党的新欧洲身份


The French Socialist Party may well have just saved ratification of the European Union’s draft Constitutional Treaty by France in next summer’s referendum.	在明年夏天举行的法国全民公决中，法国社会党很可能会看到欧盟宪法条约草案得以通过。


At the beginning of December, party members and supporters voted overwhelmingly in favor of the treaty.	12月初始，社会党党内人士和其支持者对此草案进行投票，结果以压倒性票数通过。


With the popularity of President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin – and French rightist forces more broadly – in steep decline, a “no” vote could have tipped the public against ratification.	由于雅克·希拉克总统和皮埃尔·拉法兰总理广受欢迎，加之法国右翼力量的势力大幅削弱，一票否决票就可能使法国民众转而反对草案的通过。


But the French Socialists’ vote is also important for the European Left.	但法国社会党的投票对欧洲左翼而言也相当重要。


The French Socialist Party never had its “aggiornamento” or “Bad Godesberg” (where the German SPD in 1959 renounced its last vestiges of Marxism).	法国社会党从来没有经历过天主教的现代化改革，也没有过巴特戈德斯贝格纲领（德国社民党曾在1959把它称为马克思主义的最后遗迹）。


Instead, the party long defended the theory of a revolutionary “rupture” with capitalism, never clearly acknowledging its reformist nature.	相反，法国社会党一直坚持认为与资本主义分离是循序渐进的演变过程，从未明确承认其改革本质。


As a result, French Socialists always positioned themselves to the left of their European partners, giving a major economic role to the state following the big nationalizations that took place in 1981 after François Mitterrand was first elected president.	所以，法国社会党人常把自己定位于其欧洲合作伙伴的左翼，自1981年弗朗索瓦·密特朗首次当选总统领导国有化生产后就一直主导着国内经济。


Later it fought against Tony Blair’s “Third Way” and Gerhard Schröder’s “new center” in the late 1990’s.	后来，法国社会党一直对英国总统布莱尔“第三条道路”的政治经济策略和德国总理施罗德的“九十年代后期新中心”的说法持反对态度。


The party did choose Europe over dogma in 1983, when Mitterrand decided to remain in the European Monetary System.	1983当密特朗总统决定保留欧洲货币体系时，法国社会党越过教条选择了欧洲。


But the party never debated or theorized this choice, simply accepting former Prime Minister Lionel Jospin’s claim that the fiscal stability and financial modernization resulting from the decision was but a “parenthesis.”	但是社会党从未为这一决定进行辩论，或使之理论化，仅仅是接受了前社会主义党总理莱昂内尔·若斯潘的主张，他声称这一决定所产生的财政稳定和金融现代化仅是一个插曲。


That December vote on the EU Constitutional Treaty closed this parenthesis: by approving of it, the Socialists consciously accepted a reformist, social democratic, European identity.	12月份的欧盟宪法条约投票结束了这一插曲。 它的通过表明了法国社会党有意识地接受了一种改革者的形象，一个社会民主的欧洲身份。


They have positioned themselves as a great power on the left, with a central position in the European Socialist Party, offering an alternative to the prescriptions of New Labour and the SPD.	他们将自己定位于一个强势左翼政党，在欧洲社会党中占据中心地位，给新工党和德国社会民主党提供了一条新的出路。


This outcome did not come without a fight.	获得这样的结果并非一帆风顺。


Powerful mainstream Socialists, such as former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, joined traditional leftist minorities in the party – either rigidly euroskeptic or unrealistically euromaximalist – to rally around refusal.	一些有势力的社会党主流成员，诸如前总理洛朗·法比尤斯——党内为数不多的传统左翼人士，对这次投票表示反对。 这些传统左翼人士要么是彻底的欧洲怀疑论者，要么就是极端的欧洲最大化论者。


This stance came as a shock from Fabius, a signatory of the Single Act of 1986, a party leader during the Maastricht Treaty negotiations, and Finance Minister when France adopted the euro in 2001.	法比尤斯总理的这一立场令人惊讶，他曾签署了1986年的单一欧洲法，领导过马斯垂克条约的谈判，同时也是2001年法国采纳欧元货币的财政部长。


Clearly, political calculations played a role: Fabius intuitively felt that the French, especially those on the left, oppose the construction of Europe in its current form, and that carrying the banner of rejection could win him the party leadership – and thus its presidential nomination in 2007.	显然，政治考虑起了一定的作用，法比尤斯总理本能地感觉到法国人民反对当前模式下的欧洲建设，尤其是左翼人士，而高举反对口号可以帮助他赢得本党领导人位置，从而获得2007年总统候选人提名。 但这个推理被证明是错误的。


This reasoning proved wrong: the Socialists’ members and voters know that there is no alternative to Europe and accepted the Treaty as a means of going further, despite its imperfections.	因为法国社会党成员和投票者们知道，尽管欧盟宪法条约并不完善，但为了欧洲的发展，除了接受别无选择。


But limiting the significance of the “no” vote to mere political calculation would be a mistake, for it also reflects the importance of the “French malaise” about Europe.	但是如果这一反对票的意义仅仅归咎于政治考虑，那也是个错误，因为它也反映出法国对欧洲的不满。


The French perceive Europe as distant, technocratic, and often the Trojan horse of liberal globalization and deindustrialization.	法国人认为欧洲各国相互疏远，崇尚技术，是带着自由主义全球化和限制工业化标签的特洛伊木马。


These doubts are even stronger among those who consider the ideals of a social Europe insufficiently fulfilled, owing to the right’s political dominance: control of 18 of 25 governments, the same number of European commissioners, and a majority in the European Parliament.	这些疑虑在一些人心中更为强烈． 他们认为由于右翼政治思想的主导，欧洲社会主义的完美模式没有得到充分实现——欧洲２５个政府中的１８个由右翼政治领导者，欧盟委员会委员也是如此，右翼也占了欧盟议会议的大多数。


Moreover, Lionel Jospin’s elimination from the presidential election in 2002 by the far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen is widely interpreted – wrongly in my opinion – as the result of the Socialists’ pro-European position.	而且，时任社会主义党总理的若斯潘在2002年的总统选举中被极右翼政党民族阵线候选人庞勒淘汰出局一事也被广泛理解为表明了社会党的亲欧立场，而我却认为这种说法并不正确。


But the Socialist “yes” to Europe should not be confused with the “yes” given by the right.	但是社会党人对欧洲说“是”并不能与右翼人士说“是”混为一谈。


French Socialists support the Constitutional Treaty as a way to strengthen political effectiveness and democratic accountability in the EU, and because it advances the cause of social progress by integrating the Charter of Fundamental Rights and defining goals such as full employment, sustainable development, anti-discrimination, and gender equality.	通过整合欧洲联邦基本权利宪章，确定多个目标诸如充分就业、持续发展、反对歧视和性别平等，从而加快社会进程，这是法国社会党对宪法条约表示支持的原因，他们期望以此加强欧盟的政治效能性和民主责任性。


The Socialist “yes” also means support for increasing Europe’s standing as a global power through the creation of an EU ministry of foreign affairs.	法国社会党的“是”也表明它支持欧洲通过产生一名欧盟外长而逐渐成为一个全球性的力量。


This doesn’t amount to a conversion to liberal principles or a substitution of Europe for the ideals of the left and of socialism.	这并不等于向自由主义转变，也不是用欧盟来取代左翼思想和社会主义的理想模式。


The treaty is but a necessary step to successful EU enlargement and further progress on Europe’s construction; it is not an end in itself.	这一条约只是欧盟通向壮大和进一步建设的必要一步，而绝不是它的最后一步。


The essential task for the European Socialist Party now is to build a vision for Europe that addresses its constituencies’ concerns and inspires their hopes.	对欧洲的社会党来说，现在重要的任务是为欧洲描绘一幅未来的景象，解决选民关心的问题并激发他们的希望。


The party cannot evade demands for a more social Europe and for solutions to weak growth and high unemployment.	人们需要一个更为社会化的欧洲，希望低出生率和高失业率的问题能得到有效解决，这些都是社会党无法逃避的。


The European Socialists will also have to define a more ambitious budget strategy, with higher spending for research, education, and other social investments, develop an industrial policy that transcends the simplistic logic of competitiveness, affirm a legal framework for European public services, and support greater EU-wide social and fiscal homogeneity.	同时，欧洲社会党人士要制定更加高瞻远瞩的预算策略以便支付更高的研究，教育和其他社会投资支出，还要跳出单纯的竞争逻辑制定工业政策，为欧洲公共服务确定法律框架，并支持欧盟范围内更大��模的社会和财政齐一性。


There has been progress on all these issues, guided by a report entitled “For a progressive Europe” delivered by Pascal Lamy to the European Socialist Party’s leader, former Danish Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen.	欧盟贸易委员帕斯卡尔·拉米和欧洲社会党主席、前丹麦首相鲍尔·纽汝普·拉斯姆森共同发表的一篇题为《至进步中的欧洲》的一文中，表明欧洲已经在所有上述问题上取得进步。


But European Socialists remain divided: German and British members oppose higher spending and fiscal homogeneity.	但是欧洲社会党成员仍然意见相左：德国和英国的党内人士反对更大的开支及财政齐一性。


Clearly, the French “yes” did not solve everything.	显然，法国说“是”不能解决所有问题。


Europe’s left must still clarify its vision of the future.	欧洲左翼必须要再次阐明他们对欧洲未来勾画。


The internal debates will be heated and their conclusions difficult for some to accept.	内部争论将愈演愈烈，他们的结论对有些人而言将难以接受。


But I am happy that the French Socialists have made a powerful statement on behalf of the Treaty.	但我还是非常高兴法国社会党已经代表欧盟宪法条约作了强有力的陈述。


The French Way of Crisis	法国模式的危机


According to opinion polls, Nicolas Sarkozy’s popularity is at the lowest point seen in decades for a French president. Last week, two ministers resigned, but a parliamentary and media-sustained storm continues, fueled by conflict-of-interest charges against a minister suspected of corruption when raising money for Sarkozy’s presidential campaign.	巴黎——


Some ministers don’t care much about public perceptions when using public funds, and it is clear that the political atmosphere has become poisonous.	当前，法国正陷入混乱之中。


The atmosphere in parliament is execrable, and may be enough to topple the government in a no-confidence motion.	根据民意调查显示，萨科奇的支持率在近几十年法国总统中处于最低。


But the constitution established by General Charles de Gaulle is strong, and Sarkozy will keep his position until the end of his mandate in 2012. The main opposition Socialist Party’s weak electoral prospects are also helping Sarkozy.	上周两名内阁部长辞职之后，议会和媒体还在穷追猛打，他们指控一名内阁部长在萨科奇的总统竞选筹款中涉嫌腐败。


The size of France’s political crisis seems to be out of proportion with the country’s real situation.	一些部长们滥用公款的行为受到舆论的谴责。 显然，目前整个法国政坛的风气都已败坏，议会更为恶劣，整个政府面临不信任投票下台的危险。


To be sure, France has been severely hit by the global financial crisis and economic downturn.	但是，萨科奇的总统任期是到2012年，这个由戴高乐将军一手创建的民主政体依旧牢固不破。


But the consequences have been somewhat less dramatic than in many other European countries.	况且，主要发对党社会党的支持率也不足以使总统提前下台。


Two of the three Baltic countries and Greece are in deep financial distress. Much the same is true of Portugal, Spain, Hungary, and Iceland.	当前法国政坛的危机和目前的社会现实不相匹配。


Ireland, Belgium, Italy, and the United Kingdom are still under threat, owing to large public debts or current-account deficits.	虽然法国在全球金融危机中严重受挫，经济下滑。


But the Netherlands, and Austria – and, to a lesser extent, Germany and France – are faring slightly better.	但其受害程度还比其他欧洲国家要好一些。


In the short term, the situation in Germany is less severe than in France. Its trade balance is positive, and total public debt is not as high as it is in other countries.	三个巴尔干国家中的两个和希腊已经陷入严重的金融危机中。


Despite high unemployment and low growth, Germany does not face a short-term threat to macroeconomic stability, though the country’s population is declining and aging, implying huge challenges in the decades ahead.	葡萄牙，西班牙，匈牙利，爱尔兰，比利时，意大利和英国国债赤字累累，正在经受着严峻的考验。 不过，荷兰和奥地利都还算好一些，德法两国更好一些。


The short-term situation for France is more worrying.	从短期来看，德国的情况好于法国。 贸易顺差，国债也不如其他国家那么高。


The fiscal deficit is higher than 6% of GDP, the trade balance is negative, and public debt – albeit lower than in all other European countries except Germany and the Netherlands – is nonetheless 80% of GDP. France urgently needs structural reforms – and thus a strong government.	虽然失业率居高和经济增幅较低，德国在短期内的宏观经济稳定还没有受到威胁，但随着人口老龄化和出生率持续下降，未来几十年的情况堪忧。


Of course, unethical behavior by officials – the root of the current crisis – is unacceptable.	法国短期来看不容乐观。 财政赤字超过GDP的6%，贸易逆差，国债占GDP的80%，不过这只比德国和荷兰低一些，比其他欧洲国家都要好。


But if growth were higher and unemployment were falling, such scandals would not be treated as such a drama.	法国急需进行结构性的改革，这就更需要一个强有力的政府。


Two factors are intensifying the pressure on Sarkozy.	当然，政府官员的腐化是不能容忍的，这也是当然危机的根源所在。


First, the public is increasingly aware that urgent and straightforward policies are desperately needed in the areas of pension and healthcare payments, and in state organization.	但如果经济增幅度上升及失业率下降，政坛丑闻就会成为一个小插曲。


Second, in recent decades the French have been 10%-20% more pessimistic than the rest of the world when asked about their happiness and their attitudes toward the future for themselves or for France.	目前，萨科奇面临着两方面的压力。


Not only is the market economy less popular in France than in all other European countries or the US, but it is less popular than in Russia or in China!	首先，公众迫切要求在养老金和医保及国企领域中确定清晰的政策走向。


All emerging countries answer “yes.” That is also the answer of a large majority in the US and in Europe.	第二，在最近几十年的民意调查中，当被问及幸福感和对未来的看法时，法国民众的反应要比其他国家悲观10-20%。


But in France, the majority says “no.” This deep pessimism militates against any public debate or reform, and exaggerates the importance of the current political crisis.	法国人对市场经济的欢迎程度不如其他欧美国家，甚至还不如俄罗斯和中国。


Since the first polling companies were created in the US, the UK, and France in the 1930's, they have asked questions about happiness and attitudes about the future.	未来值得期待么？ 所有的新兴市场国家民众的回答都是肯定的。


At first, the French gave the same answer as other people.	欧美大多数民众也是如此。


But, in June 1940, the sky fell on their heads.	但大多数法国民众却给出否定答案。


This very centralized and proud country, where the state matters more than elsewhere and the military had won so many wars, witnessed the complete collapse of both in the span of just two weeks. A non-elected government that capitulated to Hitler offered a parochial, vassal-like future.	这种悲观情绪将不利于任何改革和公开讨论，同时夸大了目前政治危机的严重性。


The French never really recovered from that trauma. Despite a beautiful rebirth after the war, the moral defeat of the elite and the hesitancy of the political system remain.	民意调查是在1930年代由美英法三国首先采取，当问及有关幸福感和对未来看法时，在最初的民意调查中，法国民众的答案和其他国家没什么两样。


Dire pessimism has become permanent, making consensus nearly impossible to reach – an impasse made worse by the under-development of civil society in France.	法国一直是一个中央集权和国家荣誉感非常强烈的国家，国家的地位高于一切，军队无往不胜，谁料想，法国却在1940年6月短短的两周内整个国家沦陷。 一个希特勒扶植的傀儡政府给人民带来了一个悲观失望的未来。


So expect big shocks.	此后的法国一直没有缓过劲来。


Balancing cuts in public spending in order not to endanger growth and employment requires a stable and smart government – and time.	虽然战后得到重生，精英阶层的精神挫折感和政体上的彷徨一直挥之不去。


The UK and Germany are, with their excessive restrictions, are preparing the ground for recessions at home. Will France address the issue with greater subtlety and avoid this risk?	可怕的悲观情绪一直持续下来，民众很难达到共识——加上随着公民社会发展出现波折之后，情况变得更为糟糕。


The grumpy, moaning, and intractable people of France have demonstrated many times that they can wake up and meet the challenges of the day. The Enlightenment, after all, was born in France.	于是，我们期盼有重大变革。


There is the French Revolution, the Napoleonic epic, the Battle of the Marne – won in 1914 thanks to spontaneous initiative when the government and the state failed – and the great revival of 1945-1950.	预算的削减不能影响到经济增长和就业，这都需要一个稳定智慧的政府。 英国和德国政府已经做出了表率，法国何去何从？


France also has a higher birth rate than all other European countries, and is the only one that renews each generation.	暴躁，唠叨和多事的法国人屡次显示出觉醒之后的实力。


Thirty years ago, there was not a single French enterprise among the world’s top 100 enterprises, whereas today there are 15.	文艺复兴起源于法国。


France’s education and health-care systems, despite difficulties, are still among the best in the world. Its intelligentsia and its scientists remain very creative, and are among the best in many fields.	法国革命，拿破仑时代，1914年极富创新的马恩大捷和1945-1950年的大复兴时代都说明了这一点。


So don’t bury France just yet.	法国的人口出生率比欧洲其他国家都要高，同时也是唯一新老交替正常的国家。 三十年前，没有一个法国企业进入世界100强，现在有15家。


The French will undergo major shocks in the years to come, but France might be the only European country standing tall 30 years from now.	法国的教育医保系统虽处于困境，但仍是世界上最好的系统。 法国的知识界和科学家极富创新精神，他们在许多学科领域都保持着世界领先地位。


The Front Line of Democracy	民主的前沿


BENGHAZI – This week, I flew to Benghazi to meet Libya’s Transitional National Council (TNC), a visit coordinated with European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton and NATO allies. I was the first Western foreign minister to travel to Libya since the crisis began.	发自班加西——本周我在欧盟高级代表凯瑟琳·阿什顿和各北约盟国的协调下飞往班加西与利比亚过渡国民议会进行会晤，也成为第一个在利比亚危机爆发后到访的西方外交部长。


What I saw reminded me of my country 20 years ago, just after Poland’s first free elections, which, together with the fall of the Berlin Wall barely six months later, came to symbolize the Cold War’s end.	眼前所见的一切令我不禁回想起20年前的波兰，当时波兰首届自由选举刚刚落幕，并与在6个月后倒塌的柏林墙一道成为宣告冷战结束的标志性事件


Peoples in transition from authoritarian rule – peaceful in Poland in 1989, bloody in Libya today – grapple with decisions that determine their fate for decades.	正处于从专制统治向民主过渡进程中的人们——1989年的波兰是和平过渡，而如今的利比亚则相当血腥——总是在决定其未来数十年命运的决策上踌躇不定。


How should the former regime’s worst wrongdoers and security police, with their insidious archives, be treated? Should the former ruling party be banned?	应该如何处置那些前政权的罪魁祸首和秘密警察，以及一大批秘密文件？


How can civilian, democratic control of the army and police be secured?	是否应该禁止前执政党的一切活动？


What role should religion play in public affairs?	宗教在公共事务中应该扮演什何种角色？


Should the constitution establish a presidential or parliamentary system?	在宪政体制的选择方面，是该实施总统制还是议会制？


The former communist world made those choices 20 years ago.	前共产主义国家在20年前先后做出了上述选择。


But very different choices – for better and for worse – were made in Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, in the Baltic states, across the former Soviet Union, in Central Asia, and in East Germany.	不管效果好坏，波兰、匈牙利、捷克斯洛伐克、波罗的海诸国、前苏联内部，中亚和东德都选择了自身独特的道路。


The results form a crucial database of experience.	而这些选择的结果最终汇集成为一个充满经验教训的重要数据库。


Today’s Arab reformers thus can draw on our successes – and avoid our mistakes.	如今的阿拉伯改革者们也可以借此取得我们的成功——同时也避免当年所犯下的错误。


We central Europeans knew the misery of communism. Yet we knew what we wanted to replace it with – a system based on modern European democratic market values.	我们这些中欧人体验过共产主义的苦难，因此也知道应该选择一个什么样的替代品——一个奠基于现代欧洲民主和市场经济价值观的系统。


Building democratic structures requires time, discipline, pain, and patience. But it pays off.	民主架构的建立需要时间，纪律，痛苦和耐心，但这一切都是值得的。


In July, Poland will assume the EU presidency for the first time; we have earned this responsibility to lead European affairs over the next six months.	在今年7月，波兰将首次担任欧盟主席国； 波兰人也将肩负着在随后六个月内领导欧洲事务的责任。


Poland learned the hard way that demanding change and defying oppression are much less difficult than formulating and delivering a clear, reasonable program for a better future.	波兰人认识到相对于呼吁变革和反抗压迫的苦难历程，推动一个旨在实现一个更美好未来的清晰合理进程才更加艰难。


Not all popular demands for freedom succeed: in the confusion, reactionary forces can make their move.	不是所有对自由的民众呼声都能最终应验的：反动势力常常能在混乱局势中得势。


The fall of the Shah in Iran had ruinous consequences for that country.	伊朗国王统治的垮台为这个国家带来了灾难性后果。


Belarus won independence in 1991, but, since 1994, President Alexander Lukashenko has shamelessly embraced communist symbols – and methods – to cling to power.	白俄罗斯在1991年宣布独立，谁知在1994年总统亚历山大·卢卡申科又恬不知耻地捡起了原来那套共产主义符号——以及手段——来巩固自己的权力。


Europe has unfinished business here.	这也是欧洲不光彩的角落。


Today, across North Africa, millions of people are demanding a voice in their own destiny.	如今纵观整个北非地区，数百万人民都在争取掌握自己的命运。


Each country is looking to change and move forward.	每一个国家都在尝试变革并迈步向前。


In Morocco, the King has announced constitutional reforms, including guarantees for public participation in national decision-making, an independent judiciary, and new regional authorities.	在摩洛哥，国王宣布了包括确保公众参与政策制定过程，实现司法独立和建立新区域管理机构在内的一系列宪政改革措施。


This measured, inclusive reform can be a model for others.	而这个谨慎并具备包容性的改革可以成为其他国家的楷模。


And reformers in the Arab world have had tremendous support from Qatar, which has provided an example of strong leadership, particularly in Libya, but also through the news channel Al Jazeera – a real force for change in the region.	与此同时阿拉伯世界的改革派们也得到了卡塔尔的大力支持，该国一方面在利比亚问题上展现了强大的领导作用，同时也通过半岛电视台新闻频道——一支实实在在的区域变革力量——来施加影响力。


Libya is experiencing a deadly struggle between people insisting on change, and a desperate, greedy regime determined to cling to power after 40 years of crass misrule.	利比亚正经历着一场你死我活的斗争，一边是坚持追求变革的人民，另一边则是在实施了40年暴政后依然负隅顽抗的贪婪政权。


The United Nations Security Council, supported by the Arab League, has authorized the use of all necessary means to protect Libyans from the cruelty of their own leaders.	联合国安理会在阿拉伯联盟的支持下批准使用一切手段保护利比亚民众免遭本国领导人的残酷镇压。


Our NATO allies launched proportionate military operations aimed at denying Col. Muammar Qaddafi’s regime the means to attack civilian targets.	我们的北约盟国也执行了相应的军事行动以保证卡扎菲的政权无法继续袭击平民目标。


Governments worldwide have frozen illicit assets stashed abroad by the regime – money that should be used to help the opposition to build a new society.	全球各国的政府纷纷冻结了该政权隐匿的非法资产——这些钱正好可以用来协助反对派建立一个新社会。


I went to Benghazi to assess the intentions and credibility of the Transitional National Council and Libyan opposition.	而笔者此次前往班加西的目的，就为了对利比亚过渡国民议会以及反对派的意图和可信度��行评估。


We brought medical supplies for the Benghazi Medical Center, where injured people from Misurata and elsewhere are being treated.	我们还为班加西医疗中心送去了医疗用品以协助救治从米苏拉塔（Misurata）和其他地区送来的伤病员。


Around the table sat improbable allies: some had been prominent officials in Qaddafi’s regime; others had spent many years in prison under sentence of death.	在班加西，围坐在会议桌旁的则是些原本不太可能结盟的人：一些是卡扎菲政权中的高官； 其他人则在死刑判决下蹲了多年监狱。


They were united in recognizing that their country deserved a new start.	他们最终联手，因为所有人都知道自己的国家应当拥有一个崭新的开端。


I was reminded of Poland’s “roundtable” in 1989, when Solidarity sat with the ruling communists to negotiate the end of the regime.	这又令我回想起1989年时在波兰举行的“圆桌会议”，波兰团结工会成员与共产党执政当局一起坐下来，商讨这个政权的最终命运。


I talked frankly with TNC Chairman Mustafa Abdul Jalil, Deputy Chairman Abdul Hafez Ghoga, and TNC Defense Minister Jalal Dheili, himself a former political prisoner.	我与过渡国民议会主席穆斯塔法·阿卜杜尔·贾里尔，副主席阿卜杜尔·哈菲兹·戈加以及身为前政治犯的国防部长贾拉尔·德黑里坦率地交换了意见。


They were grateful for the international community’s involvement, but described in moving terms the huge loss of life that Qaddafi had inflicted on his own people.	他们对国际社会的介入表示感谢，同时也用激动的语调叙述了卡扎菲对利比亚人民所犯下的暴行。


I told them that we considered the TNC to be our new legitimate political interlocutors in Libya and were ready to support them, but that in return we expected the TNC to work towards the best standards of transparent democratic government.	我告诉他们说我方已经将过渡国民议会视为新的合法政治对话方，并准备好给予相应支持，但我方希望得到的回报则是过渡国民议会能向着建立透明民主政府的最佳标准迈进。


They had to realize that they need a plan – revolutionary moments are moments to be seized.	他们应该意识到必须制定一个计划方案——只有把握住了的时刻才能被称为革命性时刻。


Poland would help by offering training for TNC officials.	而波兰将为过渡国民议会官员提供培训。


Following this visit, my message to European leaders is twofold. First, Libya’s TNC is the best bet we can make now for Libya’s future.	在本次访问之后，我向欧洲领导人们传达的信息将分为两部分：首先，利比亚过渡国民议会是目前我们推动利比亚走向未来的最佳伙伴。


Its leaders are cooperating in an effort to bring about real reform in a way that was unthinkable a few months ago.	该组织的领导人正在推动实现真正的改革，而这些改革在几个月前还是无法想象的。


They deserve the world’s energetic support.	他们理应得到全世界的大力支持。


Second, while Europe has much to offer its North African neighbors in terms of financial support, advice, and training, the region needs to find its own path to freedom and success.	其次，虽然欧洲向其北非邻居提供了大量的财政，顾问和培训支持，但这个区域的国家必须找到一条通往自由和成功的独特路径。


Let us approach this task in the best spirit of European solidarity, but also with a certain humility.	让我们不但以欧洲团结的高昂热情，同时也要保持着谦逊的态度来推动这一进程。


Europe’s former communist countries can make a special contribution to the process of transition across North Africa.	欧洲的前共产主义国家能对北非的转型做出自己独特的贡献。


Above all, we understand that sustained reform requires assuming responsibility by mobilizing the energy of one’s own people, not relying on well-intentioned but often ill-focused outside help.	毕竟我们知道持续的改革需要动员本国人民的能量来共担改革之责，而不是心怀好意却指向错误的外部援助


Poland is ready to lead the way, on its own and as EU President.	波兰已经准备好在担任欧盟主席国之时领导这一进程。


For example, former President Lech Wałesa recently visited Tunisia to offer advice as part of a Polish program to help Tunisia devise robust constitutional reforms and election laws.	比如波兰前总统列赫·瓦文萨(Lech Walesa)最近就前往突尼斯，为一个旨在协助该国建立完善宪政改革和选举法的波兰项目提供顾问意见。


North Africa’s people know what they don’t want – and won’t accept.	北非民众知道自己不想要的是什么——也明白什么是不能接受的。


But they are struggling to identify what they do want, and how to build it.	但他们正挣扎于确定什么才是自身所需以及如何去建立这一切。


As I saw in Benghazi, there is a fair chance that Libya’s emerging leaders will be good, realistic partners for good realistic policies.	正如我在班加西所见，这些新崛起的利比亚领袖们在很大程度上会成为良好而且现实的伙伴去实现一系列的良好而现实的政策。


The Fukushima Syndrome	福岛综合症


BIRMINGHAM – The dramatic events that unfolded at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant after last year’s tsunami are commonly referred to as “the Fukushima disaster.”	伯明翰—去年海啸所引起的日本福岛第一核电站核泄漏事件被人们称为“福岛灾难”。


We need look no further than this description to begin to understand the significant misconceptions that surround nuclear energy.	从这个称呼开始理解我们对核能的误解再好不过了。


It was the tsunami, caused by the largest earthquake ever to strike Japan, that killed more than 16,000 people, destroyed or damaged roughly 125,000 buildings, and left the country facing what its prime minister described as its biggest crisis since World War II.	夺走16 000多人生命、摧毁和毁坏约125 000栋建筑、令日本首相将其称为日本自二战以来最严重危机的，是由有史以来袭击日本的最强烈的地震所引起的海啸。


Yet it is Fukushima that is habitually accorded the “disaster” label.	但被人们贴上“灾难”标签的确实福岛核电站。


In fact, although what happened was shocking, the events in the hours and days after a giant wave slammed over the nuclear plant’s protective seawall might be interpreted as a remarkable testament to nuclear power’s sound credentials.	事实上，福岛第一核电站防护海塘遇袭之后几小时甚至几天内所发生的事情尽管令人震惊，却称得上是核电安全性的一次有力证明。


To be sure, the environmental impact on those living close to Fukushima may take many years to remediate.	诚然，福岛附近居民所遇到的环境冲击需要很多年才能得到纠正。


But the response in many quarters – not least in Germany, Switzerland, and other countries that immediately condemned and retreated from nuclear energy – once again typified an enduring lack of knowledge concerning two fundamental issues.	但许多国家对此的反应——特别是德国、瑞士和其他一些立刻叫停核能的国家——再一次暴露出人们长久以来在两大基本问题上的无知。


The first is safety; the second is radiation.	第一大问题是安全；


We need to promote a much more inclusive and informed dialogue about both if nuclear power is to be assessed on its genuine merits, rather than dismissed on the grounds of little more than ignorance and intransigence.	第二大问题是辐射。 如果对核电的评价不是基于其真正的优点，而是基于愚昧和固执，那么我们需要就这两个问题开展更深、更广、信息量更大的对话。


Would the many people who would ban nuclear power also prohibit air travel?	为数众多的意欲禁止核电之人会禁止乘飞机吗？


After all, the parallels between the two industries are central to the question of safety.	要知道，这两个产业都面临着安全这一中心问题。


We are often told that air travel, statistically speaking, has a better safety record than any other form of transport.	我们经常被告知，从统计角度讲，飞机具有比其他交通工具更佳的安全记录。


The numerous interrelated reasons for this might usefully be summarized by comparing an airplane to a bicycle.	对此，我们能提出大量相互关联的解释，但可以通过比较飞机和自行车来作一个生动的说明。


We all appreciate that an airplane is a sophisticated device, and that a bicycle is not.	我们都承认，飞机是一种高度复杂的机器，而自行车则否。


We also acknowledge that the consequences of an airplane crash are liable to be far more catastrophic than, say, those of a cyclist clipping a curb on his way home from the shops.	我们也知道，坠机的后果要比你从商店骑车回家时遭遇爆胎可怕得多。


Accordingly, designing and manufacturing an airplane is many times more demanding and thorough than designing and assembling a bicycle is.	因此，设计和制造一架飞机的要求要比设计和组装一辆自行车严苛和周到得多。


The same can be said of the approximately 450 nuclear reactors around the world.	同样的道理也适用于全世界大约450个核反应堆。


The fact is that the industry’s safety record is second to none when measured against those of its rivals.	事实上，就安全记录而言，如果核电自称第二，就没有哪种电敢称第一。


Like airplanes, nuclear reactors are conceived and constructed to mind-boggling standards.	与飞机的情况相同，核反应堆的设计和建设需要满足足以令你感到头大的各种标准。


For all of the tension and fear surrounding the fight against a nuclear meltdown at Fukushima, we should not forget that the plant – and with it the notion of a nuclear-energy industry – was subjected to an extraordinary test, in the strictest sense of the word.	福岛核心融化尽管引起了诸多紧张和担忧，但我们不应该忘记，从最严格的意义上上，该核电站——以及核能产业——难免会遇到不同寻常的考验。


Were it not for some design flaws that would not be repeated today, Fukushima might well have survived intact – and history would be so different.	要不是一些如今已不可能再次出现的设计缺陷，福岛核电站应能安然无恙，历史也将被改写。


Indeed, nuclear energy is a safer proposition now than ever before, but, for many people, the mere spectacle of an event like Fukushima – regardless of the outcome – is sufficient to draw the opposite conclusion.	事实上，如今和核能要比以前安全多了，但是，对很多人来说，一次类似福岛的大事故，不管最后结果怎样，便已足矣令他得出反对的结论。


If a 747 crashed into a nuclear facility, we would be unlikely to hear calls for all airplanes to be outlawed, but the clamor for every reactor on the planet to be shut down immediately would probably be deafening.	如果一家波音747撞上一个核设施，我们肯定不会听到取消其他飞机飞行的要求，但要求核电站的其他核反应堆全部立即关闭的声音将震耳欲聋。


Remember, too, that Fukushima was built in the 1970’s, and that the technology on which it was based dated from a decade earlier.	不要忘了，福岛核电站建于20世纪70年代，而其技术则是20世纪60年代的产品。


Its successors are radically different in how they work, as is the regulatory framework, which sets astonishing new benchmarks for the care and quality required at every stage of the process.	后来的核电站从工作机理到规章制度都与福岛有了巨大的不同，养护标准和建设过程每一步的质量要求都有了极大的提高。


The case against nuclear power is deeply rooted in concerns over safety in general and radiation in particular.	反对核电的声音深深地植根于人们对安全性、尤其是辐射的担忧。


The Fukushima accident, having reinforced too many opinions and reshaped too few, makes it vital that we try to bring clarity to these issues – especially in those countries, including the United Kingdom, where the notion of a sustainable energy policy remains undetermined.	福岛事件只是强化了不少观点，并没有改变多少观点，这使得我们必须对这些问题做出澄清——特别是对英国等可持续能源政策仍没有定论的国家。


While we know the corollaries of high levels of radiation exposure, what happens at the other end of the scale is less clear.	大剂量辐射暴露有什么危害我们已经一清二楚了，但微量辐射的影响我们还没有清晰的认识。


The world is full of radioactivity – walls, concrete, even bananas contain traces – and our bodies have adapted to it.	在地球上，辐射到处可见——墙壁、水泥甚至香蕉也含有辐射——我们的身体早已适应了。


In countries like Brazil and India, people live in environments that have 20-200 times the radiation commonly found in the UK, apparently with no negative genetic effects.	在巴西和印度等国，人们的日常生活环境核辐射量是英国的20—200倍，但显然这并没有造成负面的遗传影响。


Some experts even argue that we may need a degree of radioactivity to stimulate our immune systems.	有专家甚至认为，我们需要一定程度的辐射来刺激我们的免疫系统。


Of course, there remain concerns around the vital issues of waste disposal and proliferation.	当然，在废料处理和核扩散等重大问题上，仍然存在担忧。


Again, consensual debate is required.	但也不能一味否定，而是应该开展一致的辩论。


But that requires formulating a roadmap that tells us where we stand and what we must do.	但这要求给出一张路线图，��我们知道现在身在何处、应该如何做。


We need to create the necessary culture of dialogue within industry and academia. And we need to encourage people to think and reflect more.	我们需要在产业界和学术界建设必须对话文化，也需要鼓励人们更加深入的思考和反思。


Above all, we need to enhance the public’s grasp of the energy sector as a whole.	最重要的是，我们需要增强公众对整个能源部门的掌握。


Currently, there is too much “I know” and “This is what I firmly believe,” frequently from influential people, in cases where there is no incontestable right or wrong.	在现阶段，“我知道”和“这就是我所深信不移的”这样的说法太多了，而且通常来自具有重大影响力之人，但事实上，并不存在无可争议的对或错。


Fukushima is one of them.	福岛便是一例。


It is still not too late – not quite – to start couching the broader discussion of nuclear energy in language that will inform rather than alarm, and in terms that will nurture well-balanced judgments rather than entrench long-held biases.	现在开始培养关于核能问题的互通信息而不是警告的大讨论还为时未晚——至少不是十分晚，我们需要的是能产生不偏不倚判断的讨论，而不是进一步根深蒂固的偏见。


The Fusion Myth	核聚变神话


France is now rushing to construct the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, (ITER), which is supposed to show that nuclear fusion can be used to power nuclear power stations.	法国正急着要建造国际核聚变实验堆，据称该实验堆可以显示核聚变能够用作核电站的能源。


ITER is often presented as the long-term solution to the problem of global warming, because nuclear fusion can provide an infinite and clean source of energy.	因为核聚变可以提供无限和清洁的能源，所以国际核聚变实验堆通常被看作是解决全球变暖问题的长期解决方案。


But ITER will do nothing of the sort.	但是国际核聚变实验堆无法做到这样的事。


In the fission reactions that nuclear power generation relies on today, heavy elements such as uranium break into smaller ones, while in nuclear fusion small elements such as hydrogen stick together and form heavier elements (helium).	在我们今天用来产生核能的核裂变反应中，是把铀这样的重元素裂变成小的元素，而核聚变是把像氢这样的小元素结合在一起形成重元素（氦）。


Both fission and fusion produce a lot of energy.	核裂变和核聚变都能产生巨大的能量。


Some political leaders explain that nuclear fusion is at work in the sun, and that, thanks to ITER, we will harness it.	一些政治领导人解释说太阳里发生的就是核聚变，而通过国际核聚变实验堆，我们可以控制这种反应。


They often add that, since fusion burns hydrogen, which can be found in seawater, it is an infinite source of energy.	他们还经常补充说，因为聚变燃烧的是氢，而海水就含有氢，因为这是一种无穷无尽的能源来源。


Unfortunately, political leaders know little about the scientific issues involved.	不幸的是，政治领导人对于这里所涉及的科学问题知之甚少。


That nuclear fusion is a source of energy has been known since the invention of the hydrogen bomb.	核聚变作为一种能源的来源早在发明氢弹的时候就为大家所知了。


But its control is still a fundamental challenge for research institutes, not some minor technical difficulty that can be easily overcome.	但是对它的控制对于研究机构依然还是一个根本性的挑战，这绝不是一个可以被轻易克服的细小的技术难题。


Confining a little sun inside a box is an extremely difficult task for three main reasons.	把一个小太阳限制在一个盒子里是一个极其困难的任务，这里有三个理由。


First, the nuclear fuel is not seawater, but a mixture of the two heavy isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium, a radioactive element that has been produced in small quantities for hydrogen bombs.	第一，核燃料不是海水，而是两种氢的重同位素，氘和氚的混合物。 现在我们能生产出小量的这种放射性元素氚，用来制造氢弹。


Any development of fusion reactors would require producing tritium with industrial methods that have yet to be invented.	而要建立核聚变反应堆，需要生产出工业级别的氚，目前我们还不知道如何做到这点。


Second, the deuterium-tritium fusion reaction starts at around 100 million degrees.	第二，氘和氚核裂变起始温度在1亿度左右。


To achieve this requires using a magnet to accelerate a plasma that is a big flame of deuterium and tritium nuclei.	而达到这个温度需要使用一种磁体来加速氘和氚的核的巨大火焰的等离子体。


This must be done in a ultra-high vacuum in a large chamber.	这必须要在一个大的超高真空室内完成。


ITER is not designed to produce electricity, but to study the stability of the flame in the magnet.	国际核聚变实验堆并不是被设计来产生电能的，而是要研究磁体中的这个火焰的稳定性。


Since the fusion reactions produce alpha particles, which pollute the plasma, one has to insert a “divertor” inside the flame at 100 million degrees in order to clean it.	因为核聚变反应产生α粒子，后者会污染等离子体。 因此必须在1亿度的火焰中塞入一个“偏滤器”来清洁它。


Nobody has ever accomplished this, but ITER may be able to try around 2030 – that is, if it solves the previous problem.	至今还没有人能做到这点，但是国际核聚变实验堆在2030年左右可能会做到这点，就是说，如果它解决了前面的问题的话。


Third, fusion also emits neutrons that will produce helium gas bubbles inside the wall material, which tends to explode.	第三，聚变还会释放中子，而中子会在墙体物质内产生氦气泡，从而容易让墙体发生爆炸。


The supporters of ITER explain that if the walls are porous, the bubbles can escape.	国际核聚变实验堆的支持者们解释说如果墙体是多孔的话，那么气泡就会逃逸。


But nothing can be both leak-proof and porous, and ITER is not designed to study this contradiction.	但是没有哪种物质既能防止泄漏又是多孔的。 国际核聚变实验堆并不是设计来研究这一矛盾的。


In the future, a “blanket” should be inserted between the plasma and the walls, with two objectives: to protect the outer walls and to produce tritium from nuclear reactions within a circulating fluid containing lithium.	未来会把一种“隔热板材”插在等离子体和墙体之间，以达到两个目的：保护外墙不受核反应影响，以及在含有锂的循环液体中进行核反应以产生氚。


This might work, but the first wall of the blanket will need to be not only leak-proof and porous, but also sufficiently permeable to neutrons, which have to hit the lithium atoms beyond it.	这可能会实现，但是隔热板材第一层墙面需要不但是放泄漏和多孔的，而且还要足够让中子渗透进来，因为后者必须要碰撞外面的锂原子。


The problem of materials is an entire research field in itself.	材料的问题本身就是一个很大的研究课题。


In order to study it, it has been decided to build the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) in Japan.	为了对此进行研究，已经决定在日本建造国际聚变材料辐射装置。


Some scientists have argued that the neutron irradiation in IFMIF won’t be the same as in fusion reactors, but it should be noted that its cost, at one billion euros, will be one-tenth that of ITER.	一些科学家争辩说国际聚变材料辐射装置中的核辐射与核聚变反应堆中的核辐射是不同的，但是我们应该注意到它的成本到达10亿欧元，只是国际核聚变实验堆的十分之一。


So why can’t we wait for IFMIF’s results before building ITER? It all depends on one’s budget.	那么我们为什么就不能等到国际聚变材料辐射装置有了结果时再去建造国际核聚变实验堆呢？


If ITER could really solve the planet’s energy problem, €10 billion would be a negligible investment – less than the net profit of the oil company TOTAL (€13 billion in 2006) and equivalent to ten days of waging the war in Iraq.	如果国际核聚变实验堆真的能够解决地球的能源问题，那么100亿欧元的投资完全可以忽略不计。 它比石油公司总的净利润（2006年是130亿欧元）要少得多，并且不过与伊拉克战争10天的开销相等。


But if fusion is ever to work in industrial power stations, it will take many decades.	但是要使聚变应用在工业级的电站上，还需要花费几十年的时间。


Even if ITER is successful, and if one solves the tritium and material problems, everything would need to be tested in real size, and only then could a first prototype of an industrial reactor be built.	即便国际核聚变实验堆能获得成功，人们解决了氚和材料的问题，所有的东西也还需要进行实际规模的测试，只有到那时才能开始建造工业级反应堆的第一个样板。


A drastic reduction of CO2 emissions is an urgent priority, but fusion is unlikely to produce sufficient energy to achieve that goal before the twenty-second century.	大幅降低二氧化碳的排放是一个需要紧急解决的问题，而聚变在二十二世纪前不太可能生产出足够的能源才达到这个目标。


In fact, ITER is a big instrument for fundamental research, so its €500 million Euros annual cost needs to be compared with similar scientific initiatives, such as the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), which costs one billion Swiss francs per year.	事实上，国际核聚变实验堆主要是用来作基础研究的，所以应该把它每年5亿欧元的费用与类似的科学倡议进行对比。 比如，欧洲核子研究组织每年的费用是10亿瑞士法郎。


In my opinion, searching for the fundamental structure of particles is far more important than studying the stability of a plasma.	在我看来，研究粒子的基本结构远比研究一种火焰的稳定性要重要得多。


In France, the contribution to ITER is more than all the available funding for research projects in all our physics laboratories.	在法国，对国际核聚变实验堆的捐助已经超过了我们所有物理实验室的研究项目可以获得的资金总和。


So the danger is that ITER will squeeze out funding for other vital research.	所以其危险是国际核聚变实验堆会挤压其他重要研究项目的资金。


We already have the bad example of the International Space Station, a waste of $100 billion that has produced no scientific results.	在这一点上我们已经有国际空间站的糟糕例子，在这上面我们耗费了1000亿欧元却没有获得任何科学成果。


ITER will not solve our energy problem.	国际核聚变实验堆无法解决我们的能源问题。


Although it has some scientific interest in plasma physics, the participating countries should clearly state that funding it won’t affect the rest of their research efforts.	尽管它可能对于火焰物理学有一些科学意义，但是参与的国家应该明确地表示对它的投资不会影响其他的研究项目。


At the same time, the international community should support research on energy saving and storage, and accelerate the development of fourth-generation nuclear reactors, which will use fission and be both clean and durable.	与此同时，国际社会应该支持能源节约和储存方面的研究，并且加快发展第四代核反应堆，后者采用的是核裂变，既干净又耐久。


The Future of China’s Growth	中国增长的未来


BEIJING – The slowdown of China’s economy has captured the headlines in recent weeks.	北京—近几周来，关于中国经济减速的新闻占据了媒体的标题。


Whether it is a permanent or temporary adjustment, the Chinese authorities have much work to do in laying the groundwork for strong economic performance in the medium and long term.	不管经济减速是持久现象还是暂时调整，中国当局都必须付出极大努力夯实中期和长期经济表现强劲的基础。


Despite extraordinary growth since the start of its transition to a market economy in 1979, China is facing serious challenges simultaneously: rising inequality, large and growing levels of environmental degradation, stubborn external imbalances, and an aging society.	自1979年开始向市场经济转型以来，中国实现了非凡的经济增长，但如今，中国同时面临着几个严重挑战：加剧的不平等性、严重且不断恶化的环境破坏、顽固的外部失衡，还有社会的老龄化。


Fortunately, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) recognizes the need to deepen market-oriented reform, change the country’s development model, and focus on the quality of growth, structural reforms, and social inclusion to overcome the rural-urban divide and stem the rise in income inequality.	幸运的是，中国的十二五规划（2011—2015）已认识到深化市场导向改革的必要性，着眼于改变中国的发展模式，注重增长的质量、结构性改革和社会融合，以克服源于收入不平等的城乡差距。


In line with this bold, long-term approach, a new report, China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society, proposes reforms that my country needs to develop a mature, well-functioning market economy by 2030.	针对这一宏伟的长期目标，最新报告《中国2030：建设现代、和谐、富有创造性的高收入社会》（China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society）给出了一些2030年前我的祖国发展成熟、良好的市场经济所需要的改革建议。


The report is the result of a longstanding China-World Bank partnership.	该报告是中国-世界银行长期合作的结晶。


Commemorating the 30th anniversary of China’s membership, World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick proposed to the country’s leaders a joint effort to identify and analyze China’s medium-term development challenges.	为纪念中国加入世行30周年，佐利克行长给中国领导人提出了识别和分析中国中期发展挑战的建议。


China 2030 calls for structural reforms that would redefine the role of government, overhaul state-owned enterprises and banks, develop the private sector, promote competition, and deepen liberalization of the land, labor, and financial markets.	《中国2030》认为，应该采取重新定义政府角色的结构性改革、改革国有企业和银行、发展私人部门、促进竞争，并深化土地、劳动和金融市场的自由化。


While providing relatively fewer tangible public goods and services directly, the Chinese government will need to provide more intangible public goods and services like rules, standards, and policies.	中国政府直接提供的有形公共品和服务数量相对较少，在未来，中国政府需要提供更多的无形公共品和服务，如规则、标准、政策等。


Such policies and institutional improvements increase productivity, promote competition, facilitate specialization, enhance the efficiency of resource allocation, protect the environment, and reduce risks and uncertainties.	这些政策和制度性进步能增进生产率、促进竞争、有利专业化、增加资源配置的效率、保护环境并减少风险和不确定性。


In the enterprise sector, the focus will need to be on increasing competition in all sectors, reducing barriers to entry and exit for private companies, and strengthening state-owned enterprises’ competitiveness.	在企事业部门，关键在于增加所有部门的竞争、降低私人公司进出壁垒并增强国有企业的竞争力。


In the financial sector, the banking system must be commercialized, thereby gradually allowing interest rates to be set by market forces, while capital markets must be deepened in tandem with the development of the legal and supervisory infrastructure needed to ensure financial stability.	在金融部门，银行体系必须商业化，从而逐渐实现利率由市场力量决定； 同时，资本市场也必须与法律和监管基础设施同步深化，以确保金融稳定。


In the labor market, China needs to accelerate reforms of the hukou (household registration) system to ensure that, by 2030, workers can move more freely in response to market signals.	在劳动力市场，中国应该加速户籍改革，确保到2030年时工人可以根据市场信号自由迁徙。


Currently, anyone who moves to another part of the country without a hukou risks losing access to education, social services, and the housing market.	目前，任何前往非户籍所在地者都有丧失获得教育、社会服务和买房权利的风险。


China’s policymakers also need to introduce measures to increase labor-force participation rates, rethink wage policy, and make social-insurance programs portable nationwide.	中国决策者还必须引入增加劳动力参与率的政策，反思工资政策，并将社会保险扩展为全国通用。


Finally, farmers’ rights need to be protected, the efficiency of land use must be increased, and policies for acquisition of rural land for urban use should be overhauled.	最后，必须保护农民的权利，土地利用效率必须有所提高，关于征用农地作城市用途的政策必须有所改变。


China’s medium-term success will also require creating an open system in which competitive pressures encourage Chinesecompanies to engage in product and processinnovation, not only through their ownresearch-and-development efforts, but also through participationin global Rampamp;Dnetworks.	中国的中期成功还取决于是否有一个开放的体系，让竞争压力促使中国公司参与生产和过程创新——不仅通过自身的研发行为，也通过参与全球研发网络。


The priority is to increase the quality of Rampamp;D, rather than just its quantity.	当务之急是改善研发质量，而不是只重数量。


Policymakers will need to focus on increasing the technical and cognitive skills of university graduates, and on building a few world-class research universities with strong links to industry.	决策者应该关注改善大学毕业生的技术和认知能力、建设与产业紧密相连的广延全球人才的研究性大学。


An enlightened strategy must encourage China to “grow green,” as opposed to growing rapidly now and facing massive environmental costs later.	开明的战略必须鼓励中国实现“绿色增长”，而不是继续走当下造成巨大��来环境成本的快速增长之路。


Encouraging new investments in low-pollution, energy- and resource-efficient industries would lead to greener development, spur investments in related upstream and downstream manufacturing and services, and build an international competitive advantage in a global sunrise industry.	鼓励低污染、能源和资源效率高的产业的投资有助于实现绿色发展，刺激相关上游和下游制造和服务业的投资，建设拥有国际竞争优势的全球朝阳产业。


China 2030 also calls for expanding opportunities, promoting social security, and reducing the country’s relatively high social and economic inequality by addressing the rural-urban disparities in access to jobs, finance, and high-quality public services.	《中国2030》还建议通过修正就业、融资和高质量公共服务等方面的城乡差距扩大机会、改善社会保障、抑制中国相对较高的社会和经济不平等性。


Doing so will require greater sustained attention to underserved rural areas and migrant populations, and to restructuring social policies in order to ensure secure safety nets.	实现这一目标要求持续地给予服务不完善的农村地区和农民工更多的关注，同时改革社会政策以确保可靠的社会安全网。


Moreover, it is vital to strengthen China’s fiscal positionby mobilizing additional revenues and ensuring that local governments have adequate financing to meet their rising expenditure responsibilities.	此外，开启新收入源、确保地方政府有充足资金满足日益高涨的支出责任以改善中国财政状况也是很关键的。


Such reforms can help to ensure that budgetary resources are available at different levels of government (central, provincial, prefectural, county, township, and village), and are commensurate with expenditure responsibilities.	此类改革有助于确保各级政府（中央、省级、地级、县级、镇级、村级）都获得预算资源和合适的支出责任。


Last but not least, China should become a proactive stakeholder in the global economy.	最后，应该成为全球经济的积极利益相关者。


By continuing to intensify its global trade, investment, and financial links, which have served it well over the past three decades, China would benefit from further specialization, increased investment opportunities, and higher returns to capital, as well as mutually beneficial flows of ideas and knowledge.	中国应该继续增强其全球贸易、投资和金融联系（这也是过去三十年的成功秘诀），从而从进一步专业化、增加投资机会、更高的资本回报以及互惠思想和知识流动中获得好处。


China must remain committed to resuscitating the stalled Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, and support a global agreement on investment flows.	中国必须继续坚定不移地重启陷入中止的多边贸易谈判多哈回合，支持投资流动的全球协定。


Global integration of China’s financial sector will require opening the capital account, which will have to be carried out steadily and with considerable care; but it will be a key step toward internationalizing the renminbi as a global reserve currency.	中国的金融部门要想融入全球，就必须开放资本账户，这将通过渐近、可控的步骤实现； 但其中人民币国际化并成为全球储备货币是最关键的一步。


The proposals contained in China 2030 could provide a framework for Chinese policymakers as they seek to achieve their goal of sustainable and harmonious growth.	《中国2030》中的政策建议为中国决策者提供了一个框架，有助于实现其可持续和谐增长的目标。


With the global economy entering a dangerous phase, China’s government will need to respond to new risks, shocks, and vulnerabilities as they arise.	全球经济正在步入一个危险的阶段。 中国政府需要应对新风险、新冲击和新脆弱性。


But, in doing so, it should adhere to the principle that policy responses to short-term problems must uphold, not undermine, long-term reform priorities.	但是，在此过程中，中国应该坚持其短期政策反应必须有利于（而不能妨害）长期改革重点这一原则。


The Future of Facts	事实真相的未来


BUDAPEST – At a recent conference of newspaper editors in which I took part, a small crowd gathered to talk about journalism and new media.	布达佩斯——在我最近参加的一次新闻编辑会议上，一小群人聚在一起，谈论新媒体和新闻业。


When I told the group that I had begun my career as a magazine fact-checker, several of them grew misty-eyed, as if someone had told a group of priests about his childhood as an altar boy.	当我告诉这群人我最初工作时是给一家杂志当事实核查员，有几个人大受感动，就如同有人告诉一群神父自己小时候曾经担任过祭坛助手。


I brought up my past because I think that fact-checking is the single best training not just for journalism, but for life in general.	我提到自己的过去是因为我认为事实核查不仅在新闻业、而且在整个生活中都是一种最有效的训练。


It teaches you to think skeptically.	它教会你抱着质疑的态度进行思考。


It is easy to believe something when someone who appears knowledgeable asserts it.	听到似乎非常博学的某人做出论断就信以为真是很容易的。


But if you have a responsibility for checking facts, you listen more carefully.	但如果你负责核查事实，你就会听得更加认真。


On what sources does the speaker base his facts?	发言者的信息来源是什么？


Is there something in it for him – a higher stock price, an advertising fee, or someone else’s gratitude?	他是否在其中有利可图——更高的股价、广告费、或收获其它人的感谢？


Or is he simply biased because of the people he knows, the company he works for, or the attitudes he picked up at home?	或者由于周围人、工作单位或家庭成员意见的影响他本来就带有偏见？


I spent hours picking through sources – mostly dusty papers in the years before the Internet, or strangers on the telephone – to clarify questions of fact: Was this really the first such product?	我常常用几个小时逐一查阅消息来源——在互联网诞生前大多是些落满灰尘的报纸，或者向陌生人打电话询问——以求澄清事实的真相：这种产品真的是同类中最早的吗？


Was Mr. Smith 42 or already 43?	史密斯先生是42岁还是43岁？


Was his claim that revenues had grown for the last five years true merely because of acquisitions that his company had made?	他所说的收入在之前五年内保持增长是否只是因为公司的一次兼并？


And so on.	还有凡此种种。


My life was ruled by tk – which stands for “to kum,” or “to come,” in the jargon of reporters.	我的生活被 tk 所主宰——在记者的行话中，这是“to kum”的缩写，也称作“事实待查”。


We fact-checkers would joke about the lazy reporters who would hand us copy such as, “Juan Tigar, tk years old, grew up in tk before studying at tk.	我们这些事实核查员会拿偷懒的记者开玩笑，这些人送到我们手中的稿件中写道“Juan Tigar，年龄待查，幼年居住地待查，学校待查。


Now tk title at Widgets Corp., he…” Our job was to fill in the tk’s.	此人目前在Widgets公司任职，具体职务待查，他…”。 我们的工作是填满这些待查。


But we learned an enormous amount.	但我们从中学到了很多。


We learned not just thousands of facts that I have since forgotten, but an attitude of skepticism coupled with reverence for the truth.	我们不仅了解了数以千计现在已经忘怀的事实，而且还学到了质疑的态度和对真相的尊重。


That attitude contrasts with the skepticism I once heard from a Russian reporter about her early days on the job.	那种态度与之前我从一位俄国记者那里听到的关于她早年从业经历的叙述恰恰相反。


“Whenever we read an article about the health dangers of butter, we would immediately run out and buy as much butter as we could find,” she told me.	“每当我们看完一篇阐述黄油对健康危害的文章，都会立即冲出屋去购买尽量多的黄油，”她告诉我。


“We knew it meant there was about to be a butter shortage.”	“我们知道这意味着黄油马上就会供不应求。


In other words, Russians looked only for the agenda, the motivation behind the assertion.	”换言之，俄国人只关注安排，关注某种说法背后的动机是什么。


The actual truth was irrelevant.	实际的真相并不重要。


Of course, spin, propaganda, and censorship persist in journalism, but with one big difference: Almost anyone can now operate as a reporter.	当然，杜撰、宣传和审查仍然充斥着新闻业，但却有一大不同：现在几乎所有人都可以充当记者。


How can we ensure that these self-nominated reporters respect the truth?	我们该如何确保这些自封的记者们能够尊重事实呢？


In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission has announced plans to require bloggers and celebrity endorsers to disclose gifts or payments from vendors and others seeking the bloggers’ positive comments online.	在美国，联邦贸易委员会已经公布了要求博主和名人同意披露从卖家和其它寻求博主在线正面评论的机构收受礼物或钱款的计划。


But what about other kinds of bias?	但是其它类型的偏见呢？


As the journalistic priesthood erodes and everyone can become a citizen reporter or commentator, regulating or training all would-be journalists is not the answer.	随着新闻神秘性的逐渐消褪，任何人都可以成为一位平民记者或评论家，管制或者培训所有“即将上岗”的记者绝不是解决办法。


In line with the bottom-up, do-it-yourself ethos of the Internet, where people book their own flights, publish their own photos, and sell their own second-hand goods, it should be the users’ responsibility to do their own fact-checking.	顺应互联网自下而上、亲力亲为的风潮，人们自己订机票、自己印照片、自己出售二手货，因此自己核查事实应当是网络用户的职责。


This is not to say that journalists should not check their own facts (or that priests should not observe the tenets of their own religion).	这并不是说记者不该核查事实（也不是说神父不该遵守宗教教义的准则）。


But in the end, everyone has to become a better reader – more skeptical and more curious.	但归根结底，人人都需要成为更称职的读者——更多怀疑和更多好奇是必不可少的。


Why is this story getting so much attention?	这篇报道为什么引起如此轰动？


Does this blogger ever say anything negative, or is she always talking about the great products she uses?	这位博主是否曾有过负面评论，还是她总是谈论用过的产品有多好？


Does she have any kind of disclosures on her blog?	她是否在博客上进行过信息披露？


Why is this politician saying nice things about that politician?	这个政治家为什么总说那个政治家的好话？


What company does the product reviewer work for?	产品检验员为哪家公司工作？


Governments can impose regulations, but in the end we will get the kind of journalism for which we ask.	政府将负责制定法规，但我们最终将得到我们所要的新闻报道。


If we ask for it, Web sites will offer not just content but reputation systems, so that contributors will have reputations as reliable sources (or not).	如果我们提出要求，网站将不仅提供内容而且建立信誉系统，这样信息发布者就会被誉为可靠的信息来源（或者相反）。


We should not outlaw anonymity (which has its uses), but we can ask for details about the people whose words we are reading.	我们不应禁止匿名（匿名自有其作用），但我们可以询问文章作者的详细状况。


Someone may legitimately want to remain anonymous, but we can draw our own conclusions about their reasons.	某些人保持匿名状态可能有合法的理由，但我们有权对他们的理由得出自己的结论。


That much thinking may sound like a lot of work, but it is what is required of a responsible adult these days.	如此多的思考听上去可能需要繁重的工作，但这却是当今负责任的成年人所必备的素质。


Compared to a century ago, more people spend less time laboring to ensure their physical existence.	相比100年前，有更多的人花费更少的时间就能保证生存的物质条件。


But, in this increasingly confusing world, we need to spend a little more time laboring to ensure our own intellectual integrity – a task that we cannot outsource to governments or even to media.	但是在这个越来越让人眼花缭乱的世界，我们需要花费更多点时间努力保证自身思想上的完善——这个任务既不能交给政府也不能交给媒体。


Facts are holy, but not all media that claim to report them, “new” or old, can be trusted.	事实是神圣的，但并非所有声称报道事实的“新”老媒体都值得人去信任。


The Future of Ideological Conflict	意识形态冲突的未来


WARWICK – The just-concluded French presidential election seemed to suggest that the old left-right divisions are as potent as they have ever been – and certainly in their birthplace.	发自华威——刚刚落幕的法国总统选举似乎说明旧有的左派-右派对立依然跟从前那样行之有效——显然在法国这个诞生这一概念的地方正是如此。


But are they?	但这种说法有道理吗？


The modern political spectrum is an artifact of the seating arrangements at the French National Assembly after the revolution of 1789.	现代的政治光谱其实是1789年大革命后法国国民议会上座次编排顺序的产物。


To the right of the Assembly’s president sat the supporters of King and Church, while to the left sat their opponents, whose only point of agreement was the need for institutional reform.	当年坐在议长右侧的是国王和教会的支持者，而左侧则是他们的那些政敌们——后者唯一的共同点就是呼吁进行体制改革。


The distinction capitalized on long-standing cultural associations of right- and left-handedness with, respectively, trust and suspicion – in this case, of the status quo.	在民俗文化中人们总是把右撇子跟信任联系在一起，而左撇子则一直代表着怀疑——当然在大选中则代表了对现状的不同态度，而这一区分也从中不断得到了强化。


In retrospect, it is remarkable that this distinction managed to define partisan political allegiances for more than 200 years, absorbing both the great reactionary and radical movements of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.	回顾过去，很显然这种区分在其诞生后的200多年间都成功对党派政治忠诚进行了界定，并贯穿了19到20世纪的所有大规模极端保守或激进政治运动。


But the decline in voter turnout in most of today’s democracies suggests that this way of conceptualizing ideological differences may have become obsolete.	但如今大多数民主国家选民投票率的不断走低也意味着这种把意识形态差异概念化的方式可能已经过时了。


Some have even argued that ideologies and parties are irrelevant in an increasingly fragmented political landscape.	有人甚至认为在这个日益碎片化的政治图景中，意识形态和政党之间的相关性已经越来越弱了。


But one division that looms on the horizon could reinvent the right-left distinction for the twenty-first century: precautionary versus “proactionary” attitudes toward risk as principles of policymaking.	但在目前看来，有一种对立正在不断凸显，并可能重新塑造21世纪的左右派区分形式：在政策制定原则中对风险的预防性态度与“主动性”态度。


In social psychological terms, precautionary policymakers set their regulatory focus on the prevention of worst outcomes, whereas proactionary policymakers seek the promotion of the best available opportunities.	在社会心理学意义上，预防性政策制定者将自身的监管设定在预防最恶劣的结果上，而主动性政策制定者则试图把握住最可能获得的机会。


The precautionary principle is the better known of the two, and increasingly figures in environmental and health legislation.	在这两者中预防性原则更加广为人知，而且在环境和卫生立法方面也日渐流行。


It is normally understood as the Hippocratic Oath applied to the global ecology: above all, do no harm.	人们一般将其理解为一项针对全球生态的希波克拉底誓言（即医生誓言）：首先，不可伤害他人。


By contrast, the proactionary principle is associated with self-styled futurists, for whom being “human” is defined by our capacity to keep ahead of the game when taking calculated risks, whether by benefiting from success or learning from failure.	相比之下主动性原则则与那些以未来主义者自封的人相关，他们认为“人”之所以为人，就是因为拥有在承担适当风险的情况下抢先一步行动的能力，不管最终是从成功中获益还是从失败中吸取教训。


The difference between the two principles is most clearly apparent in their implications for the relationship between science and technology.	这两项原则之间差异最显著的地方莫过于它们对科学与技术之间关系的介入方式。


Precautionary policymakers invoke scientific uncertainty to curb technological innovation, whereas their proactionary counterparts encourage innovation as an extension of scientific hypothesis testing.	预防性政策制定者会引用科学上的不缺定性来遏制技术创新，而主动性政策制定者则鼓励创新并将其视为一种科学假说验证方式的延伸。


They also differ subtly over their conception of humans.	两者同样在对人类的概念上大相径庭。


Precautionary types aspire to a “sustainable” humanity, which invariably means bringing fewer of us into existence, with each of us making less of an impact on the planet.	持预防性观点的人希望实现人类的“可持续性”，而这总是意味着人越少越好，每个人对地球造成的影响越小越好。


Those with a proactionary bent are happy to increase the planet’s human population indefinitely as nothing more or less than a series of experiments in living, regardless of outcomes.	主动性倾向者却乐于无限增加地球上的人口数量，对他们来说这不过是一系列生存实验，至于结果如何则不太在意。


Not surprisingly, conventional political and business leaders are not entirely comfortable with either group.	不出所料，传统的政治和商界领袖对这两个群体都无法完全满意。


After all, precautionary policymakers would have business value conservation over growth, while the proactionary camp would have the state encourage people to transcend current norms rather than adhere to them. A precautionary firm would look like a miniature version of today’s regulatory state, whereas a proactionary state would operate like a venture capitalist writ large.	毕竟预防性政策制定者宁愿把对商业价值观的保护凌驾于增长之上，而主动性阵营则会鼓动国人打破（而非秉承）现有的行为准则。