AIX-EN-PROVENCE – Richard Dawkins is one of the great minds of our time; yet in his just-published memoir, Brief Candle in the Dark: My Life in Science, he notes that great minds often err when they leave their field of expertise.	普罗旺斯地区艾克斯——理查德·道金斯是我们这个时代最伟大的思想家之一； 但在其刚刚出版的回忆录黑暗中的一缕烛光：我的科学生涯中，他指出伟大的思想家离开其自身专业领域时犯错也毫不稀奇。


He cites the great astronomer Fred Hoyle, whose book The Nature of the Universe was essential reading a half-century ago.	他以伟大的天文学家弗雷德·霍伊尔为例来证明自己的观点，霍伊尔的著作宇宙本质是半个世纪前的必备读物。


When Hoyle turned to biology, he went astray.	但霍伊尔跨入生物学领域后却误入歧途。


The same thing happens to Dawkins when he turns from science to law.	从科学转向法律的道金斯同样未能摆脱这一魔咒。


Dawkins sees law as a tug of war.	道金斯将法律看作一场拉锯战。


One party, he says, makes the strongest arguments for a proposition “whether they believe it or not,” and the opposing party pays somebody to make the strongest counter-arguments.	一方“不管自己相信与否”以最坚定的方式提出一个命题，而对方当事人则雇人最大限度地反驳这一命题。


The outcome is just a question of who wins the tug of war.	结果不过是看哪方赢得这场拉锯战的胜利。


He thinks lawyers would be more “honest and humane” if they were just to “sit down together, look at the evidence, and try to work out what really happened here.”	他认为律师应该“坐下来审视证据，并试图确定到底发生了什么”才是更加“诚实人道”之举。


Dawkins’ argument is marred by three common fallacies.	道金斯的观点有三个普遍问题。


The first might be called the Crime Fallacy.	首先是所谓犯罪谬误。


As is true of many people, what first springs to Dawkins’ mind when he thinks of law is criminal law.	像很多人一样，道金斯一想到法律就先想到刑法问题。


Criminal trials fill a large space in the public imagination, but – to borrow a metaphor from biology – they are but one cell of law’s complex corpus.	刑事审判占据了公众想象力的很大部分，但借用生物学的一个比喻——这只是法律这个复杂殿堂中的一个隔间而已。


Most lawyers and judges never enter a criminal court.	多数律师和法官从未踏入刑事法庭半步。


The second is the Guilt Fallacy.	其次是有罪谬误。


Dawkins is “deeply shocked” to discover that a person who committed an illegal act may be found not guilty.	道金斯“深深震惊于”违法者有可能被认定为无罪的现实。


The Guilt Fallacy confuses “guilt,” which is a legal concept, with the commission of a forbidden act.	有罪谬误将“有罪”这一法律概念与实施禁止行为混淆在一起。


Whether one has committed an act is a question of fact.	某人是否做过某件事是个事实问题。


Whether one is “guilty” is a question of law.	而“有罪”与否则是法律问题。


A person may have carried out an act, but quite rightly be found “not guilty” – just as he may be found “guilty,” even though he did nothing.	某人可能实际实施了某种行为，但却相当公正地被判“无罪”——就像他可能什么都没做，却被做出了“有罪”判决。


This puzzles Dawkins, as it does many others.	这让道金斯感到困惑，其他很多人也有同样的感觉。


“Guilt” means that the state has proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the accused committed the act.	“有罪”意味着国家排除合理怀疑证明被告做了某件事。


If the state cannot prove it beyond a reasonable doubt, the accused is “not guilty” – regardless of whether he or she really did commit the act.	如果国家不能排除合理怀疑证明被告有罪，那就必须做出“无罪”判决——而不管他或她是否真的做过这件事。


If that burden of proof – “beyond a reasonable doubt” – were lowered to, say, “a preponderance of the evidence,” as it is in civil cases, the state would have an easier task.	如果将“超越合理怀疑”的证明负担降低到民事案件那样的“证据优势”，国家完成任务的难度将会大大降低。


But while this would result in more guilty verdicts for those who have committed crimes, it would also cause more innocent people to be found guilty.	但尽管更多犯罪者会因此被判决“有罪”，同时也会导致更多无辜者被做出“有罪”判决。


The underlying premise that Dawkins seems to be failing to grasp is straightforward: It is better to let ten criminals go free than one innocent person be convicted.	道金斯似乎并未把握的基本前提其实非常简单：宁可让10个犯罪分子逍遥法外也不能让一个无辜者被定罪。


Centuries of legal history show that this system, though far from perfect, is the fairest that humans have been able to devise.	几百年来的法律实践表明这一系统虽然谈不上完善，但却是人类设计出来的最公平的体系。


Dawkins’ third and most fundamental fallacy is the delusion that law is about truth – “what really happened,” as he puts it.	道金斯第三个也是最根本的谬误在于法律的本质是真相——用他自己的话说，就是搞清“到底发生了什么事。


Let us call this the Truth Fallacy.	”我们姑且称之为真相谬误。


It is here that Dawkins goes furthest astray.	道金斯的谬误也因此走向了极致。


The goal of law, unlike that of science, is not to determine truth; its primary aim is to minimize conflict.	法律的目的和科学不同，不是要发现真理； 减少冲突是它的主要目的。


US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis summed up this understanding as follows: “In most matters it is more important that the applicable rule of law be settled than that it be settled right.”	美国最高法院大法官路易斯·布兰代斯这样总结他自身的认识：“在多数问题上更重要不是正确适用法治而是适用法治。


Even a wrong or “unjust” decision can end a conflict.	”即使是错误或“不公正的”裁决也可以结束冲突。


Only when parties to a conflict cannot reach an agreement will a judge try to discover “what really happened.”	只有在冲突方无法达成一致时法官才会试图了解“真相”。


Lawyers call this the fact-finding process, which is characterized by a tradeoff: Finding out what really happened, as opposed to ending the dispute, can be costly.	律师将这称之为以折中妥协为特点的事实调查过程：明确事实真相相比结束冲突可能代价昂贵。


A comparison of American and French law is illustrative in this regard.	这方面比较美国和法国法律就很能说明问题。


American law has an elaborate fact-finding process called “discovery.”	美国法律有着被称为“发现”的复杂的事实调查过程。


In French civil disputes, by contrast, there is no oral testimony with cross-examination of witnesses. All evidence is written.	相反在法国民事纠纷中，根本不存在双方口头盘问证人的证词，而只有书面证据。


Lawyers gather whatever written evidence they have and submit it to the judge, who then decides.	律师搜集一切可能的证据并呈送法官，由后者则据此做出裁决。


In cases where something– a building, for example – must be seen, the French judge will appoint an “expert” to go look at it and then submit a written report.	如果案件必须实地考察特定目标——如某栋建筑——法国法官会指派一名专家前往考察，然后提交一份书面报告。


The American legal system is better at getting at what really happened, but its high cost leaves much of the public without access to the courts.	美国法律体系事实调查能力更强，但其高昂的成本导致多数民众无力进入法律程序。


The French system provides greater access to the public, but it is less likely to find out what really happened.	法国体系更容易被公众所利用，但其确定事实真相的可能性更低。


The cornerstone of law is social harmony, and its ultimate purpose can be defined as promoting social happiness, a higher standard than mere harmony.	社会和谐是法律的基础，但其最终目标可能不止于和谐，而是促进社会幸福。


Dawkins found happiness in science; we are all the richer for his contribution.	道金斯在科学中找到幸福； 我们无不因他的贡献而受益。


But, judging by his memoirs, we are equally fortunate that he did not pursue a career in law.	但从他的回忆录判断，我们同样庆幸他没有进入法律领域。


The Visual Politics of Terror	恐怖主义的视觉政治


NEW YORK – The British artist Damien Hirst once referred to the 2001 attack on New York’s World Trade Center as “kind of an artwork in its own right.	纽约—英国艺术家达米恩·赫斯特（Damien Hirst）曾把2001年对纽约世贸中心的袭击称为“一种独立艺术。


It was wicked, but it was devised in this way for this kind of impact.	它是邪恶的，但被设计用这种方式来产生影响。


It was devised visually.”	它被设计成可视的。


Now, 13 years later, Western governments, while able to describe in strategic terms the threat of the Islamic State to the Middle East, are still struggling to come to terms with its visual assault in the global media.	”如今，13年过去了，西方政府可以将伊斯兰国对中东造成的威胁用战略术语来描述，但仍无法在全球媒体中通过视觉冲击与它抗衡。


Like Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda, the Islamic State appears to understand the impact that lurid images of violence can have on the public imagination.	类似于本·拉登和基地组织，伊斯兰国似乎明白，令人惊悚的暴力影像可以给公众印象造成猛烈的冲击。


The irony, of course, is that the Islamic State’s exploitation of images of “pornographic” violence is at odds with the Islamists’ own condemnations of visual stimulation in other areas of life.	当人，讽刺之处在于伊斯兰国对“淫荡”暴力影像的利用与伊斯兰教本身在其他生活领域谴责视觉刺激的做法相悖。


Indeed, their videos take sensory titillation to its limit.	事实上，他们的视频给这一界限带来了感官刺激。


Like an algorithm designed to access an adversary’s digital network, the Islamic State’s carefully staged videos, featuring the beheadings of American and British journalists and aid workers, have penetrated the Western psyche.	就像用来侵入对手数字网络的算法，伊斯兰国精心打造的英美记者和援助工人斩首视频直击西方的神经。


That psyche has long been primed to receive shocking imagery.	长期以来，这一神经时刻准备着接受冲击性影响。


Now, the electronic media’s weakness for graphic violence has become the Islamic State’s strength.	如今，电子媒体在图像暴力上的劣势成了伊斯兰国的优势。


The visual politics of terror may seem primitive, but its practice can be as sophisticated as its effects are profound.	恐怖主义的视觉政治看起来也许相当原始，但其做法可以相当成熟，其影响可以相当深远。


Like ancient conquerors, who erected new temples on the sites where the vanquished had their own, the destroyers of New York’s Twin Towers used visual terror to strike at the heart of their enemy’s value system.	古代征服者在拥有自身图腾的被征服土地上建立新的神庙，与此类似，纽约双子塔的毁灭者利用视觉恐怖直击敌人的价值体系。


That is what terror aims to do: destabilize the foe’s normative reality.	这就是恐怖主义的目标：动摇敌人的日常现实。


Once the security of the familiar world is challenged, and its inner sanctums have been invaded and shaken, a space may be cleared for occupation.	一旦熟悉的世界的安全受到挑战，其私密性被入侵和震撼，就能为占领开辟一片空间。


Consider, for example, how Indonesia’s Suharto regime, from 1966 to 1998, depicted alleged Communist insurgent savagery, and compelled citizens to watch it on television and in theaters.	比如，1966—1998年，印度尼西亚苏哈托政权将矛头所指的共产党叛军称为野蛮人，并让公民在电视和剧院里观看影像。


The horrifying images were intended to foment terror.	恐怖影像就是为了煽动恐怖。


In the face of a grotesquely violent enemy, an even more terrifying state apparatus of organized violence emerged.	面对十恶不赦的敌人，可以产生更加令人恐怖的有组织暴力国家机器。


In effect, Suharto’s visual politics of atrocity and terror created a new reality from the violence and terror associated with the demise of the old.	事实上，苏哈托的暴行和恐怖视觉政治通过伴随旧体制衰落而生的暴力和恐慌营造了一个新现实。


The same perverse logic is at work in the Islamic State’s viral spectacles.	伊斯兰国的毒害影像背后也是同样的邪恶逻辑。


Though the need to confront evil remains as pressing as ever, Western societies’ motivation for doing so may lose clarity.	尽管直面魔鬼的需要与往常一样迫切，但西方社会这样做的动机可能不再那么明确。


After all, it is one thing to deliberate on the pros and cons of confronting external forces of irrational violence; it is something else to lash out against the producers of brutal, politically charged, and upsetting imagery.	毕竟，权衡直面不相关的外部暴力势力的利弊是一回事； 猛烈打击带政治目的的、令人不快的野蛮影像的炮制者是另一回事。


We must therefore ask ourselves what exactly is driving our response to the threats that the Islamic State presents.	因此，我们必须扪心自问，是什么决定着我们对伊斯兰国所带来的威胁的反应。


Distinguishing between information about real national-security concerns and images strategically designed to shock and titillate us will not be easy.	区分关于现实国家安全顾虑的信息和被战略性地设计用来震撼和刺激东门的影像决非易事。


But given the stakes, it is undoubtedly worthwhile.	但考虑到兹事体大，做出这样的区分毫无疑问是值得的。


The visual politics of atrocity and terror is only as strong as we imagine it.	暴行和恐怖的视觉政治只能和我们所想象的一样强大。


That is why exorcising its demons will require more than military might. It also will require us to think deeply about the strategic use of violent images in the digital age.	正因如此，驱除它的罪恶所需要的不止于军事实力，还需要我们深入思考暴力影像在数字时代的战略用途。


Splendid Isolation?	与世隔绝？


LONDON – Membership of the European Union has shackled Britain’s economy to a corpse.	伦敦——加入欧盟将英国经济和一具尸体捆绑在一起。


The United Kingdom has been bound by swaths of costly red tape to a bunch of moribund economies with no growth prospects.	英国被无数代价高昂的繁文缛节和一帮死气沉沉、没有增长前景的经济体捆在一起。


As a result, UK exporters have been held back from the fast-growing markets of the Commonwealth and the developing world.	英国出口企业也因此未能进入快速增长的英联邦市场及发展中世界。


That, in a nutshell, is the view of British euroskeptics, and it has gained considerable force in the past few years of Europe’s slow-motion crisis.	简言之，以上就是英国欧洲怀疑派所持的观点，而且在近几年欧洲发展缓慢的危机中日益受到广泛的认可。


The facts, however, tell a very different story.	但事实却完完全全是另一回事。


A new study by the Center for European Reform (CER) asks the question: What is membership of the single market actually worth to the UK?	欧洲改革中心（CER）的一项全新研究提出了这样的疑问：单一市场成员国地位对英国来讲到底价值几何？


The standard answer is that close integration with the rest of Europe brings access to a market of more than 500 million people and injects healthy doses of competition and investment into the British economy, helping to raise productivity.	标准答案是与欧洲其他国家的密切融合带来拥有5亿人口的市场，为英国经济注入健康的竞争和投资并有助于提高生产力。


The CER has taken this analysis a lot further, by measuring UK trade with countries inside and outside the EU and adjusting the results for economic size and other factors that affect trade, such as distance to markets.	欧洲改革中心发布的研究成果还不止于此，他们利用数据测算英国与欧盟内外国家的贸易，并按照经济规模及影响贸易的其他因素，比方说市场距离调整了结果。


On this basis, one can work out whether British trade with other EU countries is higher or lower than one would expect, given the size and location of their economies.	在此基础上，考虑到欧盟各经济体的规模和地理位置，我们可以弄清英国与其他欧盟国家的贸易究竟是高于还是低于预期。


The model shows that EU membership has boosted Britain’s trade in goods with other EU countries by more than half – accounting for roughly £130 billion ($219 billion) of total turnover of £364 billion in 2013.	模型显示加入欧盟使英国与其他国家的货物贸易提升了一半以上——在2013年3640亿英镑的贸易总额中占据了约1300亿英镑（合2190亿美元）的份额。


For comparison, the value of Britain’s bilateral trade with China was £43 billion last year.	相比之下，去年英国与中国实现了430亿英镑的双边贸易总额。


What explains this big “EU effect”?	如何解释这种庞大的“欧盟效应”？


The answer is that the single market is much more than a free-trade area.	答案是单一市场远非自由贸易区所能概括。


Trade has been tariff-free for decades: the big impact has come from reducing non-tariff barriers arising from different national regulations.	几十年来贸易一直是零关税：产生巨大影响的是降低不同国家法规带来的非关税贸易壁垒。


A British-made car can now be sold anywhere in the EU without having to comply with 28 member states’ safety and emissions standards.	英国产汽车现在可以销售到欧盟范围���的任何地方，而不必逐一遵守28个成员国的安全和排放规则。


Moreover, EU membership has helped the UK to attract very large investments from elsewhere in Europe.	此外，欧盟成员国地位已经协助英国从欧洲其他地方吸引了巨额投资。


In 1997, other EU states accounted for 30% of inward foreign direct investment: by 2012, the EU’s share had risen to 50%.	1997年，其他欧盟国家只占国外直接投资的30%：截止2012年，欧盟国家的占比已经上升至50%。


Britain is also a preferred location for investors from the rest of the world who seek an attractive base within what is still a growing single market.	英国也成为全世界投资者的首选之地，因为他们希望在仍旧处于成长状态的单一市场找到有吸引力的落脚之地。


European economies as a whole have stagnated relative to the developing world. But trade among EU member states has still grown at a brisk pace over the past decade.	欧洲经济体作为整体相对发展中国家已经处于停滞状态，但近几十年来欧盟成员国之间的贸易增长依然迅速。


The CER study finds no evidence that EU membership has held back Britain’s trade with the rest of the world.	欧洲改革中心并未找到欧盟成员国地位阻碍英国与世界其他国家贸易的证据。


It points also to the explosive growth of Germany’s exports to China as evidence of the fact that it is possible to prosper both inside and outside the single market.	改革中心还指出德国对华出口呈现爆炸式增长证明实现单一市场内外共同繁荣是完全可能的。


Euroskeptics claim that leaving the EU would enable the UK to dictate terms in trade negotiations with other members by virtue of the fact that Britain runs a trade deficit with them.	欧盟怀疑论者宣称英国退出欧盟后可以主宰与其他成员国贸易谈判达成的条款，因为英国与其他成员国贸易呈赤字关系。


They export more to us than we do to them, so they need us more.	他们对我们的出口超过我们对他们的出口，因此他们更需要我们。


But that, too, is a weak argument.	但那样的论据同样也非常薄弱。


The EU buys half of Britain’s exports, whereas the UK accounts for only a little more than a tenth of exports from the rest of the EU – hardly a strong negotiating position.	欧盟购买量占英国出口的半数以上，而英国则只占欧盟其他国家出口的略超过十分之一——这恐怕构不成有利的谈判位置。


Moreover, just two member states – Germany and the Netherlands – account for half of the EU’s trade surplus with Britain.	此外，仅德国和荷兰两国就占到欧盟对英国贸易顺差的半数。


Any new agreement would need the support of other EU countries, some of which buy more from Britain than they sell to it.	任何新签协议都需要欧盟其他国家的支持，其中有些从英国的进口比向英国出口还多。


So much for dry analysis.	枯燥乏味的分析就先进行到这里。


If you want to know what all of this means in practice, pay attention to recent statements from Diageo, the world’s largest producer of Scotch whisky.	如果想要了解这一切在现实中意味着什么，那么敬请关注世界最大苏格兰威士忌生产商帝亚吉欧最近发表的声明。


The company says that its ability to move goods freely within the single market is a significant benefit, one that eliminates the need for expensive paperwork for intra-EU shipments and brings direct cost savings and economies of scale.	该公司表示在单一市场自由销售商品为他们带来了显著的效益，摆脱了欧盟内部昂贵的文书成本，并直接转换为成本节约和经济效益。


Membership allows Diageo to influence the rules that make it possible to compete on fair terms across Europe.	帝亚吉欧借由欧盟成员国地位影响使其能够在欧洲全境展开公平竞争的各项规则。


And, as Diageo’s trade reach extends beyond Europe and North America, the EU’s ability to push for free trade and common standards around the world will become “even more important, especially in the emerging markets where we and other consumer goods companies tend to face more significant market access issues.”	而且因为帝亚吉欧的贸易范围超出欧洲和北美，欧盟推动全球自由贸易和共同标准的能力“特别在我们和其他消费品企业面临更多准入问题的新兴市场将变得尤为重要。 ”


Of course, there are plenty of things that need fixing in the EU, and Britain’s membership cannot be weighed only in terms of pounds and pence.	当然，欧盟尚有众多问题亟待解决，而英国的成员国地位也不能仅靠英镑和便士来衡量。


But the CER’s report provides strong support for the view that in economic terms, the UK would have a lot more to lose than it would to gain from embarking on a different course.	但欧洲改革中心报告有力地证明了在经济方面，英国改变路线所失去的远比得到的要多。


The New Thirty Years’ War	新三十年战争


NEW YORK – It is a region wracked by religious struggle between competing traditions of the faith.	纽约—这是一个被信仰传统相悖的各方之间的宗教斗争蹂躏的地区。


But the conflict is also between militants and moderates, fueled by neighboring rulers seeking to defend their interests and increase their influence.	但冲突也存在于军方和温和派之间，并受到试图捍卫自身利益、扩大影响力的邻国统治者的推波助澜。


Conflicts take place within and between states; civil wars and proxy wars become impossible to distinguish.	冲突在国家内部和国家之间存在； 内战和代理战争已难以区分。


Governments often forfeit control to smaller groups – militias and the like – operating within and across borders.	政府往往无力控制游曳在国内和国家间的军事或其他小集团。


The loss of life is devastating, and millions are rendered homeless.	生命的损失触目尽心，更有数百万人流离失所。


That could be a description of today’s Middle East.	这可以是当今中东的写照。


In fact, it describes Europe in the first half of the seventeenth century.	事实上，它描述的是十七世纪上半叶的欧洲。


In the Middle East in 2011, change came after a humiliated Tunisian fruit vendor set himself alight in protest; in a matter of weeks, the region was aflame.	在2011年的中东，一位受尽屈辱的突尼斯小水果贩自焚以示抗议，拉开了剧变的序幕。 在几周时间里，中东地区已成燎原之势。


In seventeenth-century Europe, a local religious uprising by Bohemian Protestants against the Catholic Habsburg Emperor Ferdinand II triggered that era’s conflagration.	在十七世纪的欧洲，一场波西米亚新教徒与信奉天主教的哈布斯堡皇帝费迪南二世的地方宗教冲突引起了一场时代冲突。


Protestants and Catholics alike turned for support to their co-religionists within the territories that would one day become Germany.	新教徒和天主教徒都转向日后成为德国的领地内宗教盟友寻求支持。


Many of the era’s major powers, including Spain, France, Sweden, and Austria, were drawn in.	许多当时的列强，包括西班牙、法国、瑞典和奥地利，纷纷卷入其中。


The result was the Thirty Years’ War, the most violent and destructive episode in European history until the two world wars of the twentieth century.	结果是三十年战争（Thirty Years’ War）——欧洲历史上最暴力、破坏力最强的事件，直到20世纪才被两次世界大战超越。


There are obvious differences between the events of 1618-1648 in Europe and those of 2011-2014 in the Middle East.	1618—1648年的欧洲与2011—2014年的中东存在显著不同。


But the similarities are many – and sobering.	但相似点也很多——并且令人警觉。


Three and a half years after the dawn of the “Arab Spring,” there is a real possibility that we are witnessing the early phase of a prolonged, costly, and deadly struggle; as bad as things are, they could well become worse.	在“阿拉伯之春”爆发三年半后，我们正在目睹的极有可能只是一场长期的、代价沉重的、你死我活的斗争的初级阶段； 事件极有可能朝着更加糟糕的方向发展。


The region is ripe for unrest.	该地区是动乱的温床。


Most of its people are politically impotent and poor in terms of both wealth and prospects.	其大部分人民在政治上孱弱不堪，并且一贫如洗，前途渺茫。


Islam never experienced something akin to the Reformation in Europe; the lines between the sacred and the secular are unclear and contested.	伊斯兰教从未经历过类似于欧洲的宗教革命； 宗教和世俗之间的界线模糊不清并且互相冲突。


Moreover, national identities often compete with – and are increasingly overwhelmed by – those stemming from religion, sect, and tribe.	此外，国家身份通常与宗教、宗派和部落身份冲突，并且被后三者压制。


Civil society is weak.	公民社会十分孱弱。


In some countries, the presence of oil and gas discourages the emergence of a diversified economy and, with it, a middle class.	在一些国家，石油和天然气的存在阻止了多样化经济的产生，中产阶级也无从兴起。


Education emphasizes rote learning over critical thinking.	教育强调机械学习而不是批判性思维。


In many cases, authoritarian rulers lack legitimacy.	在许多国家，极权统治者不具有合法性。


Outside actors, by what they did and failed to do, added fuel to the fire.	外部性东方的作为和不作为起到了火上加油的效果。


The 2003 Iraq war was highly consequential, for it exacerbated Sunni-Shia tensions in one of the region’s most important countries and, as a result, in many of the region’s other divided societies.	2003年伊拉克战争是一个重要事件，它加剧了该地区最重要国家之一的逊尼派-什叶派冲突，结果是该地区其他许多分裂社会的这一冲突也纷纷抬头。


Regime change in Libya has created a failing state; lukewarm support for regime change in Syria has set the stage for prolonged civil war.	利比亚的政权更迭产生了一个失败之国； 对叙利亚政权更迭的支持漫不经心，为持久内战提供了条件。


The region’s trajectory is worrisome: weak states unable to police their territory; the few relatively strong states competing for primacy; militias and terrorist groups gaining greater influence; and the erasure of borders.	中东地区的动向令人担忧：弱国无力治理领土； 极少数相对较强的国家为主宰权而互相争夺；


The local political culture confuses democracy with majoritarianism, with elections used as vehicles to consolidate power, not share it.	而国家边界日益模糊。 地方政治文化分不清民主和多数人统治，选举沦为巩固而不是分享权力的工具。


Beyond the enormous human suffering and loss of life, the most immediate byproduct of the region’s turmoil is the potential for more severe and frequent terrorism – both in the Middle East and emanating from it.	除了巨大的人道灾难和生命损失，中东动荡最直接的副产品是严重而频繁的恐怖主义——不但在于中东内部，而且正在从此走向世界。


There is also the potential for disruption of energy production and shipping.	能源生产和运输受到了干扰。


There are limits to what outsiders can do.	外部人所作所为是有限的。


Sometimes, policymakers need to focus on preventing things from getting worse, rather than on ambitious agendas for improvement; this is one of those times.	有时决策者需要将注意力集中在防止事态恶化而不是雄心勃勃的改进计划； 现在就是这样的时刻。


What this calls for, above all, is prevention of nuclear proliferation (beginning with Iran), whether through diplomacy and sanctions, or, if need be, through sabotage and military attacks.	首先，这要求阻止核扩散（从伊朗开始），不管通过外交还是制裁实现，甚至在必要时采取破坏和军事打击。


The alternative – a Middle East in which several governments and, through them, militias and terrorist groups have access to nuclear weapons and materials – is too horrific to contemplate.	否则的话局面可能一发不可收拾，中东不少国家以及通过它们的军事和恐怖组织将获得核武器和原料。


Steps that reduce global dependence on the region’s energy supplies (including improvements in fuel efficiency and development of alternative sources) also make great sense.	降低全球对中东地区能源供给依赖的措施（包括改进燃料效率、开发替代资源）也很有意义。


Economic assistance should go simultaneously to Jordan and Lebanon to help them cope with the flood of refugees.	应该马上对约旦和黎巴嫩提供经济援助帮助它们应对涌入的难民。


Democracy promotion in Turkey and Egypt should focus on strengthening civil society and creating robust constitutions that diffuse power.	土耳其和埃及的民主进程应该专注于强化公民社会、创造分散权力的强大宪法。


Counter-terrorism against groups such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (which now calls itself simply the “Islamic State”) – whether by drones, small raids, or the training and arming of local partners – must become a staple of policy.	针对伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国（现已自称为“伊斯兰国”）等组织的反恐行动必须成为常规动作，不管通过无人机、小型突袭还是训练和武装本地合作伙伴实现。


It is time to recognize the inevitability of Iraq’s break-up (the country is now more a vehicle for Iran’s influence than a bulwark against it) and bolster an independent Kurdistan within Iraq’s former borders.	应该认识到，伊拉克的分裂是不可避免的（如今，与其说伊拉克是对抗伊朗的堡垒，不如说已经沦为伊朗的势力范围）。 应该支持沿伊拉克原有内部边界建立独立的库尔德斯坦（Kurdistan）。


There is no room for illusions.	我们不容幻想。


Regime change is no panacea; it can be difficult to achieve and nearly impossible to consolidate.	政权更迭不是万灵丹； 它可能难以实现，并且几乎不可能巩固。


Negotiations cannot resolve all or even most conflicts.	谈判不能解决所有冲突，甚至不能解决大部分冲突。


That is certainly true, for the time being, of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.	眼下，从以色列-巴勒斯坦争端看，这显然是正确的。


Even if this changes, a comprehensive settlement would help the locals but not affect the dynamics of neighboring countries or conflicts.	即使发生变化，全面和解也只是有助于本地，而无法影响邻国或冲突动态。


That said, a narrow ceasefire between Israel and Hamas should be pursued.	尽管如此，以色列和哈马斯之间的狭隘停火仍是值得追求的。


Likewise, diplomacy can work in Syria only if it accepts the reality on the ground (including the survival of the Assad regime for the foreseeable future), rather than seeking to transform it.	类似地，只有在接受叙利亚的现实（包括巴沙尔政权在可预见的未来继续存在）而非试图改变它的情况下，外交才有可能在叙利亚起作用。


The answer is not to be found in drawing new maps, though once populations have shifted and political stability has been restored, recognition of new borders might prove both desirable and viable.	答案不在于勾勒新地图，尽管一旦人口发生改变并且政治稳定得到重塑，承认新边界将是可望且可及的。


Policymakers must recognize their limits.	决策者必须认识到他们的局限性。


For now and for the foreseeable future – until a new local order emerges or exhaustion sets in – the Middle East will be less a problem to be solved than a condition to be managed.	对目前和可预见的未来——在新地方秩序出现或冲突各方都筋疲力尽之前——中东与其说是一个需要解决的问题，不如说是一个需要管理的状况。


Free Trade Forever	永远的自由贸易


NEWTON, MASSACHUSETTS – On December 7, representatives from the World Trade Organization’s 159 member countries reached agreement on the first multilateral trade deal in the WTO’s 19-year history.	发自马萨诸塞州牛顿市——12月7日，来自世界贸易组织159个成员国的代表达成了WTO 成立19年以来的第一个多边贸易协议。


Although the Trade Facilitation Agreement – dubbed the “Bali package,” after the Indonesian island where the meeting took place – did not address the most pressing North-South trade issues, it remains an important economic and political milestone.	虽然贸易促进协议——因会议在印尼岛举行而被命名为“巴厘岛一揽子计划”——并未解决最紧迫的南北半球贸易不均衡贸易问题，但它仍然是一个重要的经济和政治里程碑。


The Bali package commits WTO members to moving toward lowering non-tariff trade barriers – for example, by establishing more transparent customs regulations and reducing trade-related paperwork.	巴厘岛一揽子计划规定WTO成员要朝着降低非关税贸易壁垒方向发展——例如，通过建立更透明的海关法规和减少相关贸易文件。


These changes might seem like bureaucratic minutiae, but the agreement’s impact – adding $1 trillion to global output and creating 21 million jobs worldwide – will be substantial.	这些变化可能看起来有点官僚主义，但协议的影响——增加1000亿美元的全球产出，并世界各地创造2100万个职位——将是巨大的。


The agreement has been criticized for failing to meet the goals set out in the WTO’s 2001 Doha Development Agenda.	外界有批评认为该协议未能满足WTO2001年在多哈发展议程设定的目标。


But these objectives – including improvement of market access in agriculture, manufacturing, and services; clarification of international trade rules; and progress on addressing relevant environmental issues – were overly ambitious.	但这些目标——包括改善农业，制造业和服务业的市场准入机制； 厘清国际贸易规则；


Even the modest Bali package was touch and go, requiring an extra day of negotiations to reach agreement on contentious issues like Indian farm subsidies and the US embargo of Cuba.	并在解决环境问题上取得进展——有点过于雄心勃勃了。 即使较温和的巴厘岛一揽子计划可以启动，但要在像印度农业补贴和美国对古巴禁运等有争议问题上达成一致，还需额外时日。


Nonetheless, it is clear that trade liberalization is gaining momentum.	然而很明显，贸易自由化正蓄势待发。


Consider the impressive scale and scope of other multilateral trade agreements – such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and the Trade-in-Services Agreement – that are currently being negotiated.	可��看到其他有着庞大规模及范围的多边贸易协定——如跨太平洋伙伴关系，跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系，以及贸易服务协议——当前都在谈判进程之中。


Current progress toward trade liberalization underscores how trade policy – especially that of the United States – has improved over the last hundred years.	当前走向贸易自由化的进程显示出贸易政策——尤其是美国——在过去一百多年是如何不断改善的。


The early nineteenth century was characterized by high tariff rates in both the US and Europe.	十九世纪早期的特点是美国和欧洲都实施高关税。


But, during the last few decades of the century, European tariff rates fell substantially, largely in response to the United Kingdom’s unilateral repeal of the Corn Laws, which had imposed substantial tariffs on imported grain.	但是，在本世纪最后几十年，欧洲关税大幅下跌，主要是应对英国单方面废除对粮食进口征收高额关税的谷物法。


The US, however, continued to charge much higher tariffs.	然而美国却继续征收高额关税。


Unlike in Europe, partisan politics shaped US trade policy before World War II, with the Republicans raising tariffs and the Democrats reducing them.	与欧洲不同的是，第二次世界大战之前的党派政治塑造了美国的贸易政策，因为共和党人主张提高关税，而民主党主张降低关税。


One of the most notable hikes occurred in 1922, when the Republican-controlled government passed the Fordney-McCumber Tariff, which raised the average import tariff rate by 64%.	一个最显著的上涨发生在1922年，当共和党控制的政府通过了福德尼-麦坎伯关税协定，将平均进口关税率提高了64%。


This triggered vehement protests – and strong retaliation – from America’s trading partners.	这引发了美国贸易伙伴的强烈抗议和报复。


From 1925 to 1929, 33 tariff revisions were made in 26 European countries, and 17 were made in Latin America.	从1925年到1929年，欧洲26个国家为此进行了33次关税修订，拉丁美洲国家也修订了17次。


International conferences in Brussels in 1920, Portorose in 1921, and Genoa in 1922 – as well as the League of Nations’ World Economic Conference in Geneva in 1927 – endorsed a tariff truce, but to no avail.	1920年在布鲁塞尔，1921年在斯洛文尼亚波特罗斯（Portoros），1922年在热那亚召开的国际会议——以及1927年在日内瓦召开的国际联盟世界经济会议——都支持关税休战，但无济于事。


In 1930, US President Herbert Hoover and a Republican Congress, enacted the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, sending the tariff war into high gear.	1930年，美国总统赫伯特·胡佛（Herbert Hoover）和共和党国会颁布了斯穆特-霍利关税法案，将关税大战推向高潮。


Though the Smoot-Hawley tariff increases were modest compared to those under Fordney-McCumber, their timing turned the act into a virtual synonym for bad trade policy.	虽然与福德尼-麦坎伯关税协定相比，斯穆特-霍利关税法案的关税上调较为温和，但这个发布的时间点使其成为了恶劣贸易政策的代名词。


According to the League of Nations, Smoot-Hawley triggered “an outburst of tariff-making activities in other countries, at least partly by way of reprisals,” with substantial duty hikes made almost immediately by Canada, Cuba, France, Italy, Mexico, and Spain.	根据国际联盟所述，斯穆特-霍利关税法案引发了“其他国家大规模调整关税，至少在某种程度上以此进行报复”，加拿大，古巴，法国，意大利，墨西哥，和西班牙立刻大幅上调关税税率。


Thus, though Smoot-Hawley was not a direct cause of the Great Depression, as many have claimed, it did contribute to a breakdown of international trade precisely when the world could least afford it.	因此，尽管斯穆特-霍利关税法案不是大萧条的直接原因，但正如许多人宣称的那样，它在世界最无力承受的时候助长了国际贸易的崩溃。


The two-thirds decline in aggregate imports from 1929 to 1933 was only partly a result of falling incomes, and hence import demand; retaliatory trade and exchange-rate policies also played a major role in bringing about the global trade collapse.	从1929年到1933年，2/3总进口量的下跌仅是收入和进口需求下降的部分结果； 报复性贸易和汇率政策也对全球贸易崩溃产生了重要影响。


Even when world trade finally began to revive after the depression ended, it remained fragmented, developing primarily within trading blocs and regions.	即使世界贸易终于在大萧条结束后开始复苏，它仍然是分散化的，主要在某些贸易集团和地区内部发展。


It was only after World War II – when the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (succeeded in 1995 by the WTO) began the process of multilateral trade liberalization – that Smoot-Hawley’s destructive legacy was finally overcome.	直到第二次世界大战后——当关税及贸易总协定（1995年由WTO成功签署）开始了多边贸易自由化进程——斯穆特-霍利关税法案的破坏性遗留问题才被终结。


Of course, protectionist pressures have occasionally arisen since then.	当然，自那以后，保护主义压力偶尔会出现。


For example, during the 1992 US presidential campaign, Ross Perot argued that ratifying the North American Free Trade Agreement would lead to a “giant sucking sound,” as US jobs migrated to Mexico and American workers’ wages fell.	例如，1992年美国总统竞选期间，候选人罗斯·佩罗特（Ross Perot）认为批准北美自由贸易协议将导致“怨声载道”，因为美国的就业职位将因此向墨西哥迁移，并且美国工人的工资会下降。


And many countries have introduced minor – and not so minor – impediments to trade since WWII.	与此同时，自二战结束以来许多国家都构筑了小规模——或者是不那么小规模——的贸易壁垒。


Nonetheless, the overall trend has been toward increased openness.	尽管如此，总体趋势还是不断开放。


In fact, the post-war era has been the longest sustained period of trade liberalization in history – a particularly impressive feat, given that the world has just suffered the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.	事实上，战后是自由贸易历史持续时间最长的时期——这是个特别了不起的壮举，因为世界遭遇了大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退。


Indeed, policymakers nowadays seem genuinely disinclined to resort to tariff increases.	事实上，政策制定者们目前似乎不愿真正提高关税。


There is no denying that Bali was not a complete success, and much of the WTO’s Doha agenda remains unfulfilled.	不可否认的是，巴厘岛一揽子计划不是一个完全的成功，WTO的多哈议程还有很多事情未能完成。


But the fact that countries have continued to pursue trade liberalization, however gradually, at a time of weak economic growth, suggests that free trade is here to stay.	但事实上，各个国家仍在继续推动贸易自由化，虽然在经济增长疲软的时候进度很慢，但是自由贸易依然存在。


The Monetary Cosmopolitans	货币世界主义


NEWTON, MASSACHUSETTS – Can you imagine a French citizen being elected President of the United States?	发自马萨诸塞州牛顿市——你能想象一个法国公民被选为美国总统吗？


Or a Japanese prime minister of the United Kingdom?	或者日本公民被选为英国首相？


Or a Mexican chancellor of Germany?	又或者是墨西哥公民被选为德国总理？


Probably not.	不可能！


Indeed, even if there were no legal obstacles, it would be difficult to imagine voters in a democracy installing a foreigner in their government’s top job.	事实上，即使没有法律上的障碍，也很难想象一个民主国家的选民会在本国政府的职位上安放一个外国人。


But, during the last few years, countries have increasingly turned to foreigners and people with considerable foreign experience to assume what is generally viewed as a country’s second most important position: head of the central bank.	但在过去的几年中，一些国家越来越多的让外国人和具有国外经验的人来担任通常被国家视为第二最重要的位置：中央银行首脑。


What has driven this shift, and should it be welcomed or discouraged?	那么是何种原因导致了这种转变，对此我们是该欢迎还是反对呢？


For example, Stanley Fischer, nominated in January by US President Barack Obama to succeed Janet Yellen as Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, is an American immigrant from southern Africa who served as Governor of the Bank of Israel from 2005 until last year.	例如斯坦利·菲舍尔（Stanley Fischer），一个来自非洲南部的美国移民，从2005年到去年任以色列银行行长，并在今年一月由美国总统奥巴马提名接替珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）为美联储副主席。


And, in July 2013, Mark Carney, a Canadian who had served as central-bank governor in his home country, became the first foreigner to lead the Bank of England in its nearly 320-year history.	还有加拿大人马克·卡尼（Mark Carney），他曾担任加拿大国家中央银行行长，随后于2013年7月成为英国近320年来第一位外籍英格兰银行行长。


Similarly, the widely respected governor of Ireland’s central bank, Patrick Honohan, spent nearly a decade at the World Bank in Washington, DC.	同样，广受尊重的爱尔兰中央银行行长帕特里克·霍诺汉（Patrick Honohan），曾在位于华盛顿的世界银行任职近十年。


One of Honohan’s deputies is a Swede with experience at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority; the other is a Frenchman.	霍诺汉的其中一位副手是曾就职于香港金融管理局的瑞典人，另一位则是法国人。


This represents a major departure from the tradition of filling central banks’ top leadership positions with people who have spent most of their careers there – a tradition that, over time, allowed central banks to be taken over by “groupthink.”	这代表着一种传统——由大部分职业生涯都在本地度过的人担任中央银行领导层职位——的重大转变，随着时间的推移，传统的做法令中央银行被“群体思维”所接管。


With the entrenchment of a particular ideology or mode of thinking, monetary policymakers increasingly missed – by choice or inertia – opportunities to change, reinvigorate, and improve the running of these vital institutions.	由于特定意识形态和思维方式的隔阂，货币政策制定者错过了越来越多——通过选择或惯性——改变、重振以及改进那些核心机构运行的机会。


As central banks’ key role in the recovery from the post-2008 global economic crisis demonstrated, monetary policy must be flexible and innovative.	由于央行在2008年后全球经济危机复苏中展示了关键作用，因此货币政策必须灵活和创新。


That is where the different perspectives that foreigners bring can help.	在这方面，外国人带来的不同观点就能发挥作用。


The Fed’s experience – shaped by a historically decentralized power structure – highlights the benefits of a policymaking process characterized by diverse views.	美联储经验——由历史上分散的权力结构形成——突出了不同观点对决策制定过程的好处。


When the Fed was established a century ago, monetary authority was distributed across 12 regional reserve banks, each of which had considerable autonomy.	一个世纪以前美联储成立时，货币机构是分布在12个地区的储备银行，它们有着相当大的自主权。


The fact that the heads of each of the regional Fed banks were called “governor” – the same title given to heads of the long-established European central banks – was indicative of their authority.	事实上，各地区联储银行的领导人被称为“总裁”（governor）——这一头衔与历史悠久的欧洲中央银行领导人相同——来体现他们的权威。


But, in the aftermath of the Great Depression of the 1930’s, it became clear that such decentralization had prevented the Fed from formulating and implementing a coherent monetary policy.	但是，在20世纪30年代的大萧条之后，这样的分权显然阻碍了美联储制定和实施连贯的货币政策。


The heads of the regional banks were “downgraded” from governors to “presidents” – the first and only time in US history when the transition from governor to president was a demotion – and power was centralized in the Board of Governors based in Washington, DC.	区域性银行领导人被从总裁“降级”为“主��”——在美国历史上第一次也是唯一一次出现从总裁向主席降级的现象——权力因此集中到了华盛顿特区的联邦储备委员会。


Nonetheless, an important legacy of the earlier system has remained: each of the regional banks maintains its own research department, and brings a different approach to the monetary-policy debate.	然而，早期体系的一个重要遗产被保留了下来：每个区域的银行均保留自己的研究部门，并为货币政策辩论带来不同的方法。


In other words, the Fed’s structure continues to foster a robust and diverse mix of views – something that is severely lacking in many other central banks.	换句话说，美联储的结构继续在孕育活跃且多样化的观点——这正是许多中央银行所严重缺乏的。


Consider the Bank of Canada.	再来看看加拿大央行。


Years ago, an employee at one of the regional Fed banks – who was also my graduate-school classmate – contrasted the responses to his research presentations in the United States and Canada.	许多年以前，一个地区联储银行职员——同时也是我的研究生同学——对比了他的研究报告在美国和加拿大得到的回应。


Whereas staff economists from the Federal Reserve System brought differing perspectives to the monetary-policy debate, their Canadian counterparts seemed to subscribe to a single “Bank of Canada view.”	即使经济学家从联邦储备系统对货币政策的讨论中带来不同的观点，加拿大同行似乎也只会听取“加拿大央行的观点”。


Two independent reviews of the Bank of England published in the wake of the global financial crisis found a similar lack of intellectual diversity and robust debate.	全球金融危机之后，两个关于英国央行的独立评论也发现了类似的知识多样性和活跃辩论的缺乏。


One observed that Bank of England staff members tended to “filter” their advice to make it more palatable to their superiors.	一个评论观察到英国银行职员倾向于“过滤”建议从而使其上级更容易接受。


The other concluded that the crisis highlighted just how wrong the consensus view had been, and recommended a new approach that considered divergent views.	另一个则认为危机突显了共识观点是如何站不住脚，并推荐一种新的方法，要考虑不同的意见。


This desire for change may have contributed to Carney’s appointment as the new governor, and his recent decision to bring more outside expertise into the Bank’s leadership.	这种改变的意愿可能有助于将卡尼任命为新行长，而他最近也决定把更多的外部专家带到银行的领导层。


Avoiding groupthink is essential to developing innovative, effective policies capable of responding to new monetary-policy challenges – and that demands a flexible, dynamic policymaking process.	避免群体思维对制定足以应对新货币政策挑战的创新有效的政策至关重要——而这需要灵活且动态的决策过程。


The good news is that central banks have options for enriching their policy debates, even without the benefit of the Fed’s size, structure, and geographic spread.	好消息是，各国中央银行有着丰富的政策辩论选择，纵使它没有美联储的规模，结构与地理分布优势。


For starters, they can establish committees of outside experts or commission regular external reviews of policy and the policymaking process.	首先，它们可以建立外部专家委员会定期对政策和决策过程进行外部审查。


Such reviews typically take place only after a crisis – when it is already too late.	过去这样的审查通常只发生在危机之后——但却为时已晚了。


Another solution is to appoint a governor from outside the central bank, preferably one who has enough external experience to avoid being captured by groupthink.	另一个解决方法是从中央银行以外的部门来选拔行长，最好有足够的外部经验，避免受困于群体思维。


Or, perhaps better yet, they can hire a foreigner.	或许更好的方式，就是雇佣一个外国人。


Rich Europe, Poor Europe	富欧洲，穷欧洲


From its earliest days, the European Union has aimed for balanced economic development across its many regions.	欧盟从最初就致力于达到各地区经济平衡发展的目标。


The Maastricht Treaty contains the striking phrase “overall harmonious development.”	马斯特里赫特条约包含了令人心动的“整体和谐发展”的用词。


But, however admirable this sentiment may be, there is no “scientific truth” about the “right” level of disparities and the correct speed of convergence.	但是，尽管这种想法很值得赞赏，对于“恰当”的差异水平以及相互接近的正确速度并没有“科学的真实性”。


Nevertheless, it is useful to compare economic disparities in the EU with those in the United States to assess regional convergence in Europe – bearing in mind, of course, that the US has been a nation-state for more than two centuries, while the EU is best seen as a confederation of 27 states under a supra-national structure.	然而，将欧盟内部的经济差异与美国各州的经济差异进行对比来评估欧洲的地区差异是很有用的，当然，应该记住，美国建国已经有两个世纪了，而欧盟最多只是一个在超国家架构下的27个国家的联盟。


Let us first take a historical look at the western part of the EU.	让我们从历史的角度来观察欧盟西部地区。


In 1960, disparities in what later came to be known as the EU-15 were about twice as large as those between US states.	在1960年的时候，后来成为欧盟15国之间的差异是美国各州差异的两倍。


Today, they are comparable with American income disparities.	今天，它们之间的差异已经与美国的收入差异相当了。


Income disparities have halved both in nominal terms when expressed in euros and in real terms when taking into account differences in purchasing power.	收入差异无论在以欧元计算的名义价值还是在将购买力考虑进去的真实价值上都已经减半了。


Western Europe first saw a period in which real incomes converged, followed by a period of converging prices.	西欧首先经历了一段真实收入相互接近的时期，然后是价格水平的相互接近。


In the 1960’s and early 1970’s, disparities in purchasing power declined by about 40%, then stalled, while nominal income disparities fell by a similar margin from the mid-1970’s to 1990.	在二十世纪六十年代和七十年代早期，购买力的差异减小了大约40%，然后出现了停顿，而名义收入差异在二十世纪七十年代至九十年代期间出现了类似幅度的减小。


With the introduction of the euro, and with falling inflation, nominal convergence and real convergence have grown similar, both making gradual progress since the mid-1990’s.	随着欧元的实行以及通货膨胀的消退，名义差异和真实差异都出现了类似幅度的扩大，自二十世纪九十年代中叶以来都一直在逐渐扩大。


The average population of the EU-15 is about 25 million, many more than the six million in the average US state, which more closely resembles the average population of EU regions, such as Bavaria, Wallonia, Île-de-France and the Canary Islands.	欧盟15国的平均人口大约是2500万，比美国各州的平均人口600万要大得多，后者与欧盟地区，比如巴伐利亚、瓦隆区、法国和加纳利群岛的平均人口差不多。


So perhaps it is more useful to compare the 50 US states with the EU’s 72 regions.	所以将美国的50个州与欧盟的72地区进行比较更有用。


The convergence trend in the EU at the country level is reflected in the regions.	欧盟国家层面上相互接近的趋势表现在地区水平的接近上。


But income disparities in the regions are still substantial in western Europe when compared with American states.	但是与美国的州相比较，西欧地区的收入差异还是相当大的。


It is true that poorer EU countries tend to outgrow richer ones, but poor regions do not necessarily outgrow rich regions or even the country average.	欧盟贫穷国家的增长速度确实比富裕国家要快，但是贫穷地区的增长并不一定能比富裕地区或者国家的平均水平快。


So regional disparities may persist or even grow, posing a challenge for policymakers concerned with stimulating economic growth and regional cohesion.	所以地区差异也许会保持下去，甚至有所扩大，这就给致力于刺激经济增长和地区凝聚力的政策制定者来说是一个挑战。


And what about wealth disparities in today’s EU of 27 members?	那么今天欧盟27国的财富差异有多大呢？


With the accession of 10 new states in 2004 and another two at the beginning of 2007, the Union’s membership now spans central and eastern Europe.	随着10个新的国家在2004年以及另外两个国家在2007年初加入欧盟，联盟的成员国现在已经扩展到了中欧和东欧。


In the 1990’s, these ex-communist countries had to face temporary income slumps as most of their industrial production became virtually made obsolete overnight.	在二十世纪九十年代，这些前共产主义国家不得不面临短暂的收入下降，因为它们的工业生产在一夜之间变得过时了。


New production capacity has now been created and new markets conquered, but the catching-up process is still far from complete.	新的生产能力被创造出来，新的市场也被开拓了出来，但是要真正追赶上来还有很长的一段路要走。


Unsurprisingly, then, regional disparities in income are much greater across the enlarged EU’s countries than across the US states.	我们不该感到惊讶，扩大了的欧盟的地区收入差异欧盟相比美国各州要大得多。


In 2005, average income disparities were twice as high within the then-EU-25 as within the American states.	在2005年，当时欧盟25国的平均收入差异是美国各州的两倍。


But they have come down by nearly one-third over the past 12 years.	但是在过去12年间平均收入差异已经降低了大约三分之一。


As with the EU-15, income convergence for the regions again turns out to be slower than convergence between countries.	而在欧盟15国，地区间收入水平的接近同样也比国家间收入水平的接近要缓慢得多。


Recent empirical evidence suggests that the central and eastern European regions benefiting most from EU membership are those around the country’s capital city or sharing a border with one of the 15 countries.	最近的经验数据表明能够从欧盟成员国地位受益的中东欧地区绝大部分是在该国首都的周围或者与15国之一的某个国家接壤的地区。


But as long as poorer member states grow faster than their richer counterparts, one should not be overly concerned about temporary increases in intra-national disparities.	但是只要贫穷的成员国能够比富裕的成员保持更快的增长速度，我们就不必过分担心国内收入差异暂时性的扩大。


In fact, a temporary increase in intra-national disparities may be a good thing.	事实上，国内差异的暂时扩大也许是一件好事。


Globalization and technological change are reshaping production throughout Europe, leading to the decline of traditional industries and rapid growth of high-technology manufacturing, banking and finance, scientific research, and business services.	全球化和技术变化正在重塑欧洲各国的生产，这导致了传统产业的衰退和高科技制造业、银行和金融、科研和商业服务业的快速增长。


The fact that companies in these sectors benefit from operating close to one another may boost economic development at the expense of peripheral regions.	这些产业的公司从在相互接近的地区经营中获益的事实可以刺激经济的发展，但同时会影响外围地区的发展。


In the US, successful convergence in economic conditions across regions relies strongly on labor mobility.	在美国，各个地区之间经济水平的成功接近在很大程度上依赖于劳动力的流动。


Internal migration is the main driver of income convergence, helped by a common language and all the other factors that foster mobility in America, such as comparatively easy access to housing and education.	国内的移民是收入水平相互接近的主要驱动力，美国国内共同的语言以及其他促进人员流动的因素，比如相对容易获得住房和教育，对此有很大的帮助。


By contrast, labor in the EU is largely immobile.	与之相比，欧盟的劳动力却在很大程度上流动性很不够。


Despite populist speeches about the threat posed by “Polish plumbers,” net migration flows between regions are generally insensitive to differences in unemployment rates among regions.	尽管有民粹主义者发表诸如“波兰的伐木工人”所带来的威胁之类的言论，地区间的净移民流动从总体上来看对于地区间的失业率的差异表现得并不敏感。


Of course, Europe’s labor immobility is partly caused by linguistic and cultural differences – barriers that cannot easily be removed.	当然，欧盟劳动力流动性的不足部分是由于语言和文化的差异，这种障碍是很难被轻易解除的。


But other barriers can be overcome by reforming housing policies, reducing the cost of moving, and revising social-welfare policies in order to end fears of losing long-term benefits.	但是我们可以通过改革住房政策、减少搬迁费用以及修订社会福利政策以便消除人们对于失去长期福利的担心来消除其他的一些的障碍。


Reducing the labor supply in economically depressed areas of Europe and increasing it in booming regions would do much to reduce differences in wages and unemployment rates.	在欧洲经济不景气的地区减少劳动力供应同时增加经济繁荣地区的劳动力供应可以大大降低工资和失业率水平的差异。


It’s time to start thinking seriously about how to make Europeans move.	现在是我们认真思考怎样来推动欧洲前进的时候了。


Kenya’s Resource Challenge	肯尼亚的资源挑战


OXFORD – Kenya has been exporting energy for years – in the form of some of the world’s fastest long-distance runners.	牛津—肯尼亚出口资源已有多年——世界上跑的最快的长距离选手。


But Kenya will soon be exporting another, far more profitable kind of energy, as it taps into a string of recently discovered oil fields in its 450-mile-long section of the Great Rift Valley, a fissure in the earth’s crust that runs from Lebanon to Mozambique.	但肯尼亚很快将开始出口一种利润高得多的资源，因为在其境内450公里长的东非大裂谷地区中发现了多个油田。 东非大裂谷是地表的一道伤疤，从黎巴嫩一直延伸到莫桑比克。


African countries have plenty of experience with the downsides of major resource endowments. Kenya must learn from these cases, in order to prevent its new oil riches from tripping up East Africa in its headlong dash toward monetary union.	太多的非洲国家因丰富的资源禀赋而反受其害，肯尼亚必须从中汲取教训，以防止其丰富的新石油资源成为东非迈向货币联盟的羁绊。


The riches are indeed vast.	这批石油资源着实丰富。


In the last two years, more than 1.7 billion barrels of oil have been discovered in the Lokichar basin.	在过去两年中，在洛基查（Lokichar）盆地中发现了超过17亿桶的石油。


Estimates vary widely, but there could be up to 20 billion barrels – a volume that would make Kenya one of Africa’s most resource-rich countries, second only to Nigeria, which has 37 billion barrels of proven reserves.	关于蕴藏量的估计莫衷一是，但最多可能达到200亿桶——这意味着肯尼亚将成为非洲资源最丰富的国家之一，仅次于拥有370亿桶探明储量的尼日利亚。


Nearby, Uganda has discovered 3.5 billion barrels, and Tanzania has found vast reserves of natural gas.	其近邻乌干达已经发现了35亿桶，坦桑尼亚则发现了大量天然气储量。


These countries now must determine how to avoid the “resource curse” – an all-too-common affliction whereby rising resource revenues lead to volatility, rent seeking, and corruption, while spurring real exchange-rate appreciation and wage increases, thereby undermining other economic sectors’ competitiveness.	现在，这些国家必须决定如何避免“资源的诅咒”——这个一再发生现象说，资源收入的增加会导致动荡、寻租和腐败，同时刺激实际利率升值和工资增长，从而破坏其他经济部门的竞争力。


The key will be to capture the oil revenues and invest them wisely, thereby converting below-ground assets into above-ground assets that yield an adequate rate of return and stimulate economic development.	关键在于牢牢控制石油收入并进行明智的投资，从而将这些地下资产转换为能带来足够的回报率、刺激经济发展的地上资产。


In Africa, oil is usually extracted by foreign companies, so well designed taxes are needed to ensure that countries retain a fair share of the profits.	在非洲，石油的开采大多由外国公司负责，因此需要设计巧妙的税收来确保东道国留住合理的利润份额。


While taxing profits looks good on paper, it encourages oil producers simply to shift their profits to a tax haven.	从字面上看，对利润课税是个好主意，但实际上这智慧鼓励石油生产者将利润转移到避税港。


Royalties, which tax each barrel as it is produced, are a more effective approach.	特许费——即对每一桶生产出来的石油征税——是更有效的手段。


Oil prices are also notoriously volatile, so the tax scheme must ensure that the government and the oil companies share the costs and benefits of price fluctuations.	石油价格也是出了名的波动巨大，因此税收机制必须确保政府和石油公司分担价格波动的成本和收益。


Kenya’s next challenge will be to invest the taxes in much-needed infrastructure projects, including roads, sanitation, hospitals, and schools.	肯尼亚的下一个挑战是将税收投资于急需的基础设施项目，包括公路、卫生设施、医院和学校。


High-income countries like Norway can borrow to finance such projects, allowing them to save their oil wealth in a sovereign fund.	挪威等高收入国家可以通过借款为这些项目融资，从而把石油财富节省下来投入主权基金。


For Kenya, by contrast, borrowing is expensive.	肯尼亚则相反，借钱代价太大。


Oil therefore provides an important opportunity to lay the groundwork for long-term economic growth and development.	因此石油提供了重要的夯实长期经济增长和发展基础的机会。


Of course, like any marathon, it is best not to start too fast.	当然，基础设施建设就像一场马拉松，起始阶段最好不要跑得太快。


New teachers must be trained by experienced teachers, and new roads must connect to existing roads.	新教师必须由经验丰富的老教师训练传带、新���路必须与已有公路连接起来。


Investment should therefore be gradual, which may mean temporarily storing some oil wealth abroad.	因此，投资应该是渐进的，这意味着暂时要把一些石油收入储存在国外。


Throughout this process, Kenya’s leaders should bear in mind that even the best plans can sometimes go awry, as Ghana’s recent experience has shown.	在这个过程中，肯尼亚领导人必须清除，即使是最棒的计划也会发生扭曲，加纳就是最近的例子。


Four billion barrels of oil were discovered off Ghana’s coast in 2007, and production began in 2010.	2007年，加纳沿海发现了四十亿桶石油，并于2010年投产。


The next year, the Petroleum Revenue Management Act divided the wealth among consumption, investment, and offshore savings, as recommended by economists around the world (including us).	2011年，根据全球经济学家（包括我们）的建议，石油收入管理法（Petroleum Revenue Management Act）将这笔财富按照消费、投资和离岸储蓄等进行了分割。


But, with last year’s presidential election, the situation began to deteriorate.	但是，在去年的总统选举中，局面开始恶化。


In the race for votes, Ghana’s current-account deficit increased, owing to heavy fuel subsidies and a 47% increase in payouts to public-sector workers.	随着选战的进行，加纳经常项目赤字节节攀升，因为燃料补贴支出甚巨且公共部门员工薪酬增加了47%。


This is an all-too-common tale for developing countries that experience an oil bonanza.	这是发现巨量石油资源的发展中国家极其常见的情景。


But there is some good news from Ghana.	但加纳也有好消息。


Despite the surge in government spending, the central bank’s efforts to stabilize inflation have kept prices of goods and services under control.	尽管政府支出大增，其中央银行仍然稳定了通胀，控制着商品和服务的价格。


This focus on price stability – while common among developed countries like Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom – is very unusual for Africa.	强调价格稳定在非洲是很罕见的，尽管在澳大利亚、美国和英国等发达国家这是理所当然的。


Indeed, it is something that Kenya lacks.	事实上，这也是肯尼亚所缺少的。


Ensuring price stability is about to become more important than ever.	确保价格稳定正变得前所未有地重要。


This month, the leaders of East African Community member countries are set to endorse a move to establish a monetary union, covering 150 million people, as early as 2015.	本月，东非共同体（East African Community）成员国领导人将签署一份计划，最早在2015年建立覆盖1. 5亿人口的货币联盟。


But Kenya’s newfound oil stock will complicate these plans, given that massive capital inflows will cause Kenya’s overall price level to rise relative to that of its neighbors.	但肯尼亚新发现的石油储量将让这一计划变得复杂，因为巨量资本流入将导致肯尼亚总体价格水平相对邻国上涨。


If East Africa’s central bank raises interest rates to stave off inflation in Kenya, the rest of the union will experience increased unemployment.	如果东非央行提高利率以抑制肯尼亚的通胀，那么货币联盟中的其他国家将经历失业升高。


The ongoing euro crisis clearly demonstrates the problems that a union of unequal partners can face.	仍在发酵的欧元危机清晰地展示了一个由不平等伙伴国组成的联盟可能面临的问题。


It is as if an untrained couch potato ran an 800-meter race with the world record-holder.	其情景就好像是让没有受过训练的懒人与世界纪录保持者同台竞技八百米。


Kenya and the East African Community have been pursuing monetary union since 2000.	肯尼亚和东非共同体自2000年以来便开始追求货币联盟。


But the recent discovery of massive natural-resource deposits in Kenya and elsewhere should prompt officials to rethink this goal.	但在肯尼亚和其他地区发现的巨量自然资源储备应该让官员们重新思考这一目标。


Central banks need the flexibility to adapt policy to rapid structural change in the economy – and to clean up the mess that elections often leave behind.	各国央行需要灵活度来让政策适应经济中快速的结构性变化以及清理选举常常导致的乱局。


John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said: “When the facts change, I change my mind.”	据说凯恩斯曾说，“当事实变化时，我会改变我的思想。


In Kenya and East Africa, the facts have changed; it is time for policymakers’ minds to follow.	”在肯尼亚和东非，事实已经变化； 决策者的思想也应该跟上。


A Surfing Reflection	冲浪的反思


MELBOURNE – For me, as for most Australians, summer holidays have always meant going to the beach.	墨尔本——像多数澳大利亚人一样，我总爱选择去海边度暑假。


I grew up swimming and playing in the waves, eventually moving on to a body board, but somehow missing out on learning to stand on a surfboard.	从小我就在波涛中游泳嬉戏，最后开始玩冲浪板，但不知何故没有学会站在冲浪板上冲浪。


I finally made up for that omission when I was in my fifties – too old ever to become good at it, but young enough for surfing to give me a decade of fun and a sense of accomplishment.	年过半百时我终于弥补了这一缺憾——虽然这么大年纪使我很难自如掌握，但却不妨碍冲浪给我带来10多年的乐趣和成就感。


This southern summer, I’m back in Australia and in the waves again.	这个南半球的夏天，我重回澳大利亚下海冲浪。


At the beach where I surfed today, I heard about a ceremony that had taken place there earlier in the season – a farewell to a local surfer who had died at a ripe old age.	在今天冲浪的海滩上，我听说冲浪季开始时举行过一个送别在耄耋之年过世的当地冲浪者的仪式。


His fellow-surfers paddled out into the ocean and formed a circle, sitting on their boards, while his ashes were scattered over the surface.	曾和他一道冲浪的伙伴们划向大海，围成一个圆圈坐在冲浪板上，静静注视着他的骨灰撒在海面上。


Other friends and family stood and watched from the beach and cliff top.	其他家人和朋友站在海边或崖顶默默地注视着这一仪式。


I was told that he was one of the best surfers around, but at a time when there was no money in it.	有人告诉我他曾是最好的冲浪者之一，但当时冲浪运动还无法带来经济回报。


Was it his bad luck, I wondered, to be born too early to take part in today’s lucrative professional surfing circuit?	我不知道出生太早无法加入今天能大把赚钱的职业冲浪队伍是否是他的运气不好？


Or was it his good luck to be part of a surfing scene that was less about stardom and more about enjoying the waves?	又或者在他那个时代冲浪无关明星而只注重享受海浪带来的乐趣恰恰是他运气好？


This is not a general rant against the corrupting influence of money.	我并不想在此抱怨金钱所带来的堕落影响。


Having money opens up opportunities that, if used well, can be very positive.	有钱带来的机会如果善加利用，可以产生非常积极的效果。


Surfers have created environmental organizations like the Surfrider Foundation, which has a special concern for the oceans; and SurfAid, which tries to spread some of the benefits of surfing tourism in developing countries to the poorest of the local people.	冲浪者已经建立起冲浪者基金会等关注海洋的环境组织； 还有国际冲浪救援协会，旨在帮助发展中国家最贫困的当地人享受到冲浪旅游所带来的益处。


Still, the spirit of surfing’s early days (think of the harmony of wave and human action portrayed in the 1971 movie Morning of the Earth) contrasts sharply with the razzamatazz of today’s professional circuit.	尽管如此，早年的冲浪精神（1971年陆地早晨这部影片中波浪和人类运动和谐共存的景象）与今天职业冲浪圈的核心生命力形成了鲜明的反差。


Some sports are inherently competitive.	有些运动本质上就离不开竞争。


Tennis fans may admire a well-executed backhand; but watching players warm up on court would soon become dull if no match followed.	网球迷可以对出色的反手击球啧啧称赞； 但如果没有比赛只看球员在场内热身很快就会令人感到乏味。


The same is true of football (soccer): Who would go to watch a group of people kicking a ball around a field if it wasn’t all about winning or losing?	足球也是这样：如果不关注输赢谁会去看一群人在场上踢球？


Players of these sports cannot exhibit the full range of their skills without being pushed by a competitive opponent.	这些运动的参与者如果没有有力的竞争对手就不可能完全发挥水平。


Surfing is different.	但冲浪却不是这样。


It offers opportunities to meet challenges that call on a variety of skills, both physical and mental; but the challenges are intrinsic to the activity and do not involve beating an opponent.	冲浪带来的挑战需要调动各式各样的身体和心理技能； 但上述挑战是这项运动有机的组成部分，而不需要去战胜对手。


In that respect, surfing is closer to hiking, mountaineering, or skiing than to tennis or football: The aesthetic experience of being in a beautiful natural environment is an important part of the activity’s attractiveness; there is satisfaction to be found in the sense of accomplishment; and there is vigorous physical exercise without the monotony of running on a treadmill or swimming laps.	从这个角度讲，冲浪与网球或足球相比更接近远足、登山、滑雪等运动：置身于优美自然环境所带来的美感也是这项运动一项最重要的吸引因素； 此外还有取得成就所带来的满足感；


To make surfing competitive requires contriving ways to measure performance.	冲浪比赛需要设计一整套机制来对表现进行衡量。


The solution is to judge certain skills displayed in riding a wave.	这需要判断冲浪时所表现出的特定技巧。


There is nothing wrong with surfers competing to see who can do the most difficult maneuvers on a wave – just as there is nothing wrong with seeing who can pull off the most difficult dive from the ten-meter platform.	冲浪者比赛谁能在浪尖做出最高难的动作没有任何错误——就好像看谁能从十米高台上以最高难的动作跳水一样。


But when we make surfing competitive, a recreational activity in which millions of people can happily participate is transformed into a spectator sport to be watched, for most, on a screen.	但当我们举办冲浪比赛时，就把一项成百上千万人都能轻松参与的休闲活动变成了在电视机前供人观赏的体育项目。


It would be highly regrettable if the competitive sport’s narrow focus on point-scoring were to limit our appreciation of the beauty and harmony we can experience riding a wave without fitting as many turns as possible into our time on it.	如果竞技体育对成绩的狭隘关注限制了我们对冲浪美与和谐的体味，而因此硬要在冲浪时强行加入更多的转向恐怕就太遗憾了。


Many of the highlights of my surfing have more to do with experiencing the splendor and power of the waves than with my ability to ride them.	我冲浪时的乐趣在于体验海浪的力量和壮美，而不是展示自身的冲浪技巧。


In fact, at the time of my single most magical surfing moment, I wasn’t on a wave at all.	事实上，我最神奇的一次冲浪体验根本就没有在冲浪。


At Byron Bay, Australia’s easternmost point, I was paddling out to where the waves were breaking.	当时我在澳大利亚最东端的拜伦湾，正划向海涛汹涌的地方。


The sun was shining, the sea was blue, and I was aware of the Pacific Ocean stretching ahead thousands of miles, uninterrupted by land until it reached the coast of Chile.	阳光明媚、海水湛蓝，太平洋在我眼前绵延数千里，一直毫无阻隔的延伸到智力海岸。


A pulse of energy generated in that vast expanse of water neared a submerged line of rocks and reared up in front of me in a green wall.	无垠海面上产���的能量冲击波撞向顶部浮出海面的岩石，在我的面前竖起一道绿墙。


As the wave began to break, a dolphin leapt out ahead of the foam, its entire body clear of the water.	波浪裂开时，一只海豚在泡沫中跃出海面，整个身体腾空飞翔在水面上。


It was a sublime moment, but not such an unusual one.	这是个动人心弦的时刻，但并非如此不同寻常。


As many of my fellow wave riders know, we are the only animal that plays tennis or football, but not the only animal that enjoys surfing.	像我一样的冲浪者很多都知道，我们是唯一能玩网球和足球的动物，但还有很多其他动物能和我们一同冲浪。


Righting the EU Constitution	修正《欧盟宪法》


The prospect of multiple referenda on the European Union Constitution has dramatically altered the betting on ratification.	《欧盟宪法》将进行多重投票公决的前景极大地改变了其获得批准的几率。 欧盟集权的支持者和欧盟的官僚们对该宪法可能被拒的前景忧心忡忡。


Both europhiles and eurocrats shudder at the prospect that rejection in several member states, particularly in a large one, might kill the project, leaving the Union to muddle through with the Nice Treaty.	如果某几个成员国，特别是大国在全民公决中否决了该宪法，那么欧洲的立宪进程就可能前功尽弃，那时欧盟所能依靠的也就只有《尼斯公约》这根救命稻草了。 但如果欧盟宪法的倡导者们有足够的耐心，那么民主之风可能会引导欧洲制定一部更为健全的宪法。


On the other hand, if the protagonists are patient, the winds of democracy could lead to a stronger constitution, free of the risks of economic and judicial nightmare that some aspects of the present draft entail.	这部宪法将不会带来经济和立法困境的风险。 而这样的风险现在就存在于目前的宪法草案之中。


The EU urgently needs to democratize its procedures and reorganize its institutions to ensure that this year's enlargement does not lead to bureaucratic deadlock.	欧盟现在急需民主化其程序和进行机构改组以确保今年的扩张不会导致官僚主义的僵局。


The draft Constitution provides acceptable answers to many questions of governance.	《宪法》草案为许多欧盟治理方面的问题提供了可接受的答案。


But the elevation of the Social Chapter, previously a list of good intentions, to the status of fundamental constitutional rights, threatens to encumber workers and businesses in the member states with burdensome judicial proceedings and expensive social entitlements written by judges in Luxembourg whose last word is beyond appeal.	但将先前仅仅记录着一番好意的社会章程提升到宪法基本权利的地位则会给成员国的工人和工商业的发展造成障碍。 这种障碍来自于繁复的立法程序和卢森堡的法官们所拟定的代价高昂且不容更改的社会权利。


The inclusion in Part II of the draft on "social rights" - such as the right not to be unjustly dismissed, or the right to receive old-age pensions, unemployment compensation, and health benefits (regardless of cost) - is in no way necessary to the functioning of the whole.	该草案的"第二部分"包括了"社会权利"-如不被非正当开除的权利，或领取养老金，失业救济金和医疗保障（不计成本）的权利-这些并不是整部宪法的机能所必需的内容。


These social protections are laudable, but all have a cost.	这些社会保护条款值得称赞但却代价不菲。


The very term "social right" is a misnomer.	"社会权利"这一提法本身就值得商榷。


If something is a "right," then cost is not an issue.	如果任何事是一种"权利"，那么成本就不是问题。


For instance, no economic cost is too great for the defense of freedom of speech.	例如，捍卫言论自由的经济成本再高也不为过。


The desirability of generous public pensions, on the other hand, cannot be dissociated from their cost to taxpayers.	然而，享有慷慨的公众养老金的愿望却不能和其对纳税人产生的成本分割开来。


Social protections should be framed in laws enacted by democratically elected legislators, who are well placed to weigh the costs and benefits for their constituents.	社会保护应该在法律的框架内实施，而相关的法律应该由民主选举出的立法者来制定，因为他们对选民的成本和收益最有发言权。


The most ardent advocate of expanded health care rights should agree that the forum for that advocacy is the Parliament, not the European Court of Justice.	扩展的医疗权利的倡导者们应该同意其倡议的论坛是议会而不是欧洲法院。


These protections have no place in a constitution, particularly one that cannot be easily amended.	这些保护不是宪法的一部分，尤其不应是一部难以修正的宪法的一部分。


The fact that certain "social rights" have made their way into some national constitutions on the Continent is no reason to impose them, as the present draft does, on the entire Union.	像现行的草案那样，因为某些"社会权利"被写入了欧洲大陆一些国家的宪法就要将其推行到整个欧盟的做法是不合适的。


It is noteworthy that in the Scandinavian countries, which enjoy some of the most progressive social protections in Europe, these benefits are provided by statutory laws enacted by legislatures rather than by courts enacting constitutional "rights."	值得注意的是在享有欧洲最为进步的社会保护的北欧国家，这些权益也是由立法机构所颁布的法令，而不是由法院所颁布的宪法"权利"赋予的。


They are the social dividend, allocated by national parliaments, of real economic growth.	它们是通过国家议会分配的真正经济增长的盈余。


Supporters of the European Constitution in France, on both the left and the right, shrug and say that including the Social Chapter in the draft is a compromise.	法国的《欧盟宪法》支持者，不论左翼还是右翼，都不以为然地认为将社会章程纳入宪法草案是一种妥协。


The "social rights" in Part II are seen as compensating voters on the left for, say, enshrining "competition" as a fundamental objective of the Union in Part I. But neither provision belongs in the Constitution.	草案《第二部分》中的"社会权利"被认为是针对《第一部分》中将"竞争"作为欧盟根本目标而对左派投票人的补偿。 但这两项条款都不应该成为《欧盟宪法》的一部分。


Natural monopolies are sometimes economically desirable, and it is legislators, not judges, who should decide whether and when they are to be permitted.	在经济层面上，自然垄断有时是合适的。 应该由立法者而不是法官来决定自然垄断存在的和合理性和时机。


For a decade, Britain stood almost alone against expanding the Social Chapter.	十年以来，英国几乎是在孤军奋战般地反对社会章程的扩展。


In the constitutional convention, the Blair government accepted the inclusion of its provisions in the body of the text, but insisted on language limiting their reach.	在宪法会议上，布莱尔政府同意将其规定纳入宪法正文但坚持通过语言来限制其范围。


The trouble is that the British safeguards do not work.	问题是英国的防卫是徒劳的。


Article II-52 states that the Fundamental Rights in the Constitution (including its 12 "social rights") apply only to the actions of the Union,  and of member states when they are implementing Union decisions .	该章程第二条第52款规定《欧盟宪法》的根本权力（包括其12项"社会权利"）适用于欧盟的 及其成员国在执行欧盟决定时的行动 。


But as Europe integrates, these decisions will become pervasive.	但随着欧洲的一体化，这些决定会具有普遍效力。


If EU environmental directives, for instance, call for the closure of a heavily polluting plant in Britain, the Constitution would give labor unions the right to judicial appeals against the resulting redundancies.	例如，如果欧盟的环境方针要求英国关闭重污染的工厂，《欧盟宪法》就会给予工会通过司法诉讼反对随之而来的裁员的权利。


Fortunately, this fault line in the British safeguards can be corrected without jeopardizing the document.	所幸的是英国可以修正这一缺陷而又不致危及草案本身。


The simplest solution is to remove the Fundamental Rights of Part II from the body of the text, and give them the status the Social Chapter had in the Treaty of Amsterdam: a declaration of intentions appended to the Treaty.	最简单的办法就是将第二部分中的"根本权利"从正文中移到附件里，并给与它目的性宣言的地位，正如《社会章程》在《阿姆斯特丹公约》中获得的地位一样。


All traditional individual rights are already covered in the Declaration of Human Rights, which will continue to be enforced by the court in Strasbourg.	所有传统的个人权利都已经被写入《人权宣言》，并会继续由斯特拉斯堡的法院执行。


"Social rights" should not become mandates for judges; they should remain a guide to legislators.	"社会权利"不应该成为法官的训令； 它们仍然应该作为立法者的指南。


If a political compromise is needed, "competition" should be removed as a fundamental Union objective.	如果真需要一个政治妥协，那么"竞争"作为一项欧盟的根本目标应该被删除。


Free movement of goods, services, labor, and capital certainly suffices.	货物、服务、劳力和资本自由流动的原则就已足够。


If this preferred solution proves unacceptable, an alternative would be to strengthen Article II-52, to state clearly that the twelve "social rights" of Part II apply to the Union, but  not to the member states,  even when these are implementing Union directives.  If the Union decides, as it could, that all member states must provide public health care for all unemployed persons, it would be up to national parliaments, not 25 judges in Luxembourg, to determine how to address that objective.	如果这个首选方案不能被接受，那么另一个办法就是强化第二条第52款，明确指出12项"社会权利"适用于欧盟但 不 适用于其成员国， 即便是在它们执行欧盟方针时 也不适用。 如果欧盟运用其权限决定让所有成员国都必须为失业者提供公共医疗服务，那么达成这一目标的具体方式也应该由各国议会，而不是由卢森堡的25位大法官来决定。


This would take some of the teeth out of the Union's social directives, and would give real substance to the principle of subsidiarity.	这样做既可以修正欧盟社会方针中的一些弊端，又真正体现了辅导性原则（principle of subsidiarity）。


By excising from the draft Constitution the prospect of a welfare state run by judges, its framers will increase the chances that Britain and other doubters will, in the end, ratify the final product.	如果制定者们能够杜绝宪法草案中存在的让法官来管理福利国家的可能性，那么英国和其它��宪法持怀疑态度的国家最终批准《欧盟宪法》的几率也会增加。


Righting the Wrongs of Leprosy	纠正麻风病人所受的不公正待遇


TOKYO – At its 15th session, which ended at the beginning of October, the United Nations Human Rights Council adopted a resolution encouraging governments to eliminate discrimination against people affected by leprosy – and their family members.	东京——在十月初结束的第15次会议上，联合国人权理事会通过一项决议，鼓励政府消灭针对麻风病人及其家属的歧视问题。


As the World Health Organization’s Goodwill Ambassador for Leprosy Elimination, I have long campaigned for this outcome.	作为世界卫生组织消灭麻风病亲善大使，我本人一直致力于实现这一目标。


Leprosy is one of the world’s oldest diseases.	麻风病是全球最古老的疾病之一。


It has a physical dimension, but also social and psychological components.	它既包括身体因素，也包括各种社会和心理因素。


For much of its long history, there was no known cure.	在麻风病漫长的病史上，很长时间内都没有已知的治疗方法。


It was only in the latter part of the twentieth century that a truly effective chemotherapy became available.	直到二十世纪后半叶，人类才发明了真正有效的化疗。


Since the introduction of multidrug therapy in the early 1980’s, roughly 16 million people around the world have been cured.	20世纪80年代初引入的联合化学疗法治愈了世界各地1，600万名麻风病患者。


In virtually every country in the world, leprosy is no longer regarded as a public-health problem.	几乎在全世界所有国家，麻风病都不再构成对公共健康的威胁。


Caught early and addressed promptly, leprosy need leave no trace.	早期诊断早期治疗，麻风病是可以彻底治愈的。


Only when the disease goes untreated does the damage caused to the peripheral nerves lead to loss of sensation and invite ulceration and wounds.	只有患病后得不到医治才会损伤外周神经，造成伤口溃烂和失去知觉。


Unchecked, leprosy disfigures and can result in permanent disability.	如果得不到有效控制，麻风病可以造成永久性的残疾和毁容。


Down the ages, the appearance of those with the disease, and the absence of a known cure, contributed to the fear that it caused – and thus to the stigmatization of its sufferers.	自古以来，麻风患者的外貌和没有已知的治疗方法加重了人们对麻风病的恐惧，进而令麻风病患者蒙受耻辱。


Even today, many mistaken notions about leprosy persist.	即使是今天，关于麻风病的许多错误观念仍然大行其道。


The stigma surrounding the disease remains hard to dispel, and results in discriminatory attitudes and practices that continue to blight the lives of millions of people.	麻风病带来的恶名难以驱散，从而导致进一步损害成百上千万人生活的歧视性的态度和做法。


But the facts about leprosy are hardly so odious.	但麻风病的事实情况并不那么可怕。


The disease is caused by a bacillus called Myobacterium leprae, first identified in 1873 by G.H. Armauer Hansen.	这种病的罪魁祸首是麻风分枝杆菌，是由阿莫尔·汉森在1873年首次发现的。


Leprosy is thus an infectious disease; it is not hereditary, let alone a divine punishment.	这证明麻风病是一种传染性疾病，不是天生的，更不是来自神明的惩罚。


Transmission is believed to be airborne, through close and frequent contact with an infected, untreated person.	麻风杆菌通过空气传播，与未经治疗的感染者进行密切和频繁接触可能导致传染。


But leprosy is very hard to develop; most people have a built-in immunity to it and have nothing to fear.	但麻风病发病困难，多数人对麻风杆菌具有内在的免疫力，因此根本无需害怕。


It is important to emphasize, too, that leprosy can be cured at any time.	重要的是强调任何阶段的麻风病均可治愈。


The first dose of MDT kills 99.9% of the bacteria that cause leprosy, rendering the person no longer infectious.	首剂联合化疗药物能杀死99. 9%的麻风杆菌，让患者失去传染性。


But if treatment has been delayed, the patient may be left with recurring ulcers and permanent damage.	但如果治疗被延误，患者可能溃疡反复发作，进而留下永久性的损伤。


Last year, there were under 250,000 new cases of leprosy reported in the world, over half of them in India.	去年，全世界共报告新增麻风病例250,000起，其中半数以上发生在印度。


Brazil and Indonesia also contribute a significant number of new cases.	巴西和印尼也出现了很大一部分新增病例。


Compared to the numbers who fall ill with diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis, however, leprosy almost pales into insignificance.	与艾滋病、疟疾和结核导致的患病人数相比，麻风病所造成的危害几乎不可同日而语。


But what is not acceptable is the way that people with leprosy, those cured of it, and even their family members continue to be discriminated against on the basis of fears, myths, and outdated notions about a disease that is today completely curable.	但令人无法容忍的是麻风病患者、治愈者甚至是他们的家人今天继续因为对这种完全可以治愈疾病的恐惧、传说和过时的观念而遭受公众的歧视。


The Principles and Guidelines that were unanimously adopted by the Human Rights Council convey the nature and scale of the problem.	人权理事会一致通过的原则和指导思想表明了问题的性质和规模。


In affirming the rights to which people affected by leprosy and their family members are entitled, the Principles and Guidelines reveal the extent of discrimination and the forms that it has taken.	在重申麻风病患者及其家属权利的同时，原则和指导思想揭示了歧视现象的常见形式及其严重程度。


For example, the Principles and Guidelines note that people affected by leprosy, including sufferers’ family members, are entitled to the same rights as everyone else with respect to marriage, family, and parenthood.	比方说，原则和指导思想重申麻风病患者，包括患者的家庭成员，在婚姻、家庭和为人父母方面与其他人享有同样的权利。


So leprosy should not be grounds for denying anyone the right to marry, or for divorce; nor should it constitute grounds for separating a child from his or her parents.	因此麻风病不成其为剥夺任何人结婚、离婚权利的理由，也不能因此剥夺父母抚养子女的权利。


People who have been infected with leprosy also are entitled to the same rights as everyone else with respect to full citizenship and obtaining identify documents.	麻风病患者在享受所有公民权利及领取身份证件方面也与其他人享有同样的权利。


They have the right to serve the public, on an equal basis with others, including the right to stand for elections and to hold office at all levels of government.	他们有权在平等的基础上为公众提供服务，包括享有参选和在各级政府部门任职的权利。


Likewise, they have the right to work and be treated on an equal basis with others vis-à-vis recruitment, hiring, promotion, and salary.	同样，他们有权工作，并在招聘、雇佣、升职和薪酬等方面与其他人享受同样的权利。


They are not to be denied admission to or expelled from schools or training programs on the grounds of leprosy.	不能因为患有麻风病就剥夺其入学或参与培训计划的权利，或将其从学校开除出去。


In other words, people should not be discriminated against on the grounds of having or having had leprosy – or, indeed, any disease.	换言之，人们不应因为患有或曾经患有麻风病或者其他任何疾病而遭受他人的歧视。


The landmark resolution adopted by the UN Human Rights Council encourages governments to give due consideration to the Principles and Guidelines in formulating policies.	联合国人权理事会通过的具有里程碑意义的决议鼓励政府在制定政策时对原则和指导思想予以适当的考虑。


I hope that governments will do more than that.	我希望政府的所作所为不止于此。


I hope that they will take them to heart and address once and for all the long-standing injustices that for too long have pushed too many people with leprosy to the margins of society.	我希望他们能重视这个问题，彻底解决太长时间以来将太多麻风病人推向社会边缘的不平等问题。


Rights for Robots?	为机器人争权利？


PRINCETON and WARSAW – Last month, Gecko Systems announced that it had been running trials of its “fully autonomous personal companion home care robot,” also known as a “carebot,” designed to help elderly or disabled people to live independently.	发自普林斯顿/华沙——就在上个月，一间叫Gecko Systems的公司对外宣称正对其设计制造的“全自动私人伴护起居料理机器人”（又名“机器小保姆”）进行试验运行，该机器人的设计目的是协助老人或残疾人独立生活。


A woman with short-term memory loss broke into a big smile, the company reported, when the robot asked her, “Would you like a bowl of ice cream?” The woman answered “yes,” and presumably the robot did the rest.	在该公司的报告内容里，一位患有短暂失忆症的妇女在听到机器人问“是否要来一碗雪糕”时露出了灿烂的笑容，欣然回答道：“好啊，”接着机器人大概就自动完成了余下的工作。


Robots already perform many functions, from making cars to defusing bombs – or, more menacingly, firing missiles.	其实机器人早就承担了许多工作，从造汽车，拆炸弹，再到令人不寒而栗的导弹发射任务。


Children and adults play with toy robots, while vacuum-cleaning robots are sucking up dirt in a growing number of homes and – as evidenced by YouTube videos – entertaining cats.	许多大人和小孩都拥有机器人玩具，同时也有越来越多的家庭使用真空清洁机器人来打扫卫生——以及娱乐家里的猫儿（我们在YouTube上看到了这一幕）。


There is even a Robot World Cup, though, judging by the standard of the event held in Graz, Austria, last summer, footballers have no need to feel threatened just yet. (Chess, of course, is a different matter.)	甚至还有机器人足球世界杯，不过就去年夏天在奥地利格拉茨市举办球赛的水平来看，人类足球运动员目前还没什么可担心的（当然，棋类项目就另当别论了）。


Most of the robots being developed for home use are functional in design – Gecko System’s home-care robot looks rather like the Star Wars robot R2-D2.	大部分家居使用的机器人在设计上都是以功能性为主。 比如Gecko System设计的“机器小保姆”看起来就很像电影《星球大战》中那个机器人R2-D2。


Honda and Sony are designing robots that look more like the same movie’s “android” C-3PO.	而日本本田和索尼公司设计的机器人则更类似于《星球大战》中的那个叫C-3PO的人形机器人。


There are already some robots, though, with soft, flexible bodies, human-like faces and expressions, and a large repertoire of movement.	还有一些机器人已经拥有了柔软而富有弹性的躯体，人类的脸蛋，表情以及一系列肢体动作。


Hanson Robotics has a demonstration model called Albert, whose face bears a striking resemblance to that of Albert Einstein.	比如汉森机器人公司就有了一个名叫阿尔伯特的机器人演示模型，其面部表情与大科学家阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的惊人地相似。


Will we soon get used to having humanoid robots around the home?	那么，不久之后人形机器人是否将充斥我们的居所？


Noel Sharkey, professor of artificial intelligence and robotics at the University of Sheffield, has predicted that busy parents will start employing robots as babysitters.	谢菲尔德大学人工智能与机器人科学教授诺尔·沙尔吉预测说，公务缠身的父母将会请机器人来照顾自己的小孩。


What will it do to a child, he asks, to spend a lot of time with a machine that cannot express genuine empathy, understanding, or compassion?	为此他提出一个问题，如果一个孩子大部分时间都与一个不能给予其真心的分享，理解和同情的机器呆在一起，这将对他/她造成什么影响？


One might also ask why we should develop energy-intensive robots to work in one of the few areas – care for children or elderly people – in which people with little education can find employment.	有人可能还会问，为什么我们要在照顾老人或小孩这些工作领域里引进高能耗的机器人——这可是那些低教育程度人群的饭碗啊。


In his book Love and Sex with Robots , David Levy goes further, suggesting that we will fall in love with warm, cuddly robots, and even have sex with them. (If the robot has multiple sexual partners, just remove the relevant parts, drop them in disinfectant, and, voilà, no risk of sexually transmitted diseases!)	而《与机器人谈情做爱》一书的作者戴维·利维（David Levy）则更进一步，暗示说我们将会爱上那些热心并惹人怜爱的机器人，甚至与它们做爱（如果该机器人有多个性伴侣，那么只需把对应的部件拆下来，泡到消毒剂里，然后，瞧，这样就可以避免性传染病了。


But what will the presence of a “sexbot” do to the marital home?	）但这么一种“性爱机器人”的出现对夫妇们又有何影响？


How will we feel if our spouse starts spending too much time with an inexhaustible robotic lover?	如果我们的另一半开始把过多的时间花在与一个不知疲倦的机器人情人共赴巫山之时，我们又作何感想呢？


A more ominous question is familiar from novels and movies: Will we have to defend our civilization against intelligent machines of our own creation?	还有一个在小说和电影里反复出现的，更为不祥的问题：我们是否将不得不保卫自己的文明，使之免遭出自我们之手的智能机器屠戮？


Some consider the development of superhuman artificial intelligence inevitable, and expect it to happen no later than 2070.	有人认为超人类人工智能的发展将不可避免，并预料这项事物将在2070年之前出现。


They refer to this moment as “the singularity,” and see it as a world-changing event.	他们把那一刻称为“奇点”，并将其视为改变世界的大事。


Eliezer Yudkowsky, one of the founders of The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, believes that singularity will lead to an “intelligence explosion” as super-intelligent machines design even more intelligent machines, with each generation repeating this process.	对此人工智能奇点研究所的其中一位发起人艾列泽·尤多斯基（Eliezer Yudkowsky）相信，奇点的到来将引发一场“智能大爆炸”，超级智能机器会设计出更为高级的下一代，并把这个进程一代一代传下去。


The more cautious Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence has set up a special panel to study what it calls “the potential for loss of human control of computer-based intelligences.”	对此态度更为审慎的人工智能发展联合会则成立了一个特别小组，专门研究其所谓的“计算机智能摆脱人类控制的潜在可能性”。


If that happens, the crucial question for the future of civilization is: Will the super-intelligent computers be friendly?	如果以上所说的真的发生了，那么未来文明所面对的一个严峻问题就是：这种超级智能计算机对人类是否友善？


Is it time to start thinking about what steps to take to prevent our own creations from becoming hostile to us?	是不是该考虑一下采取什么措施，以防我们受到自己所发明之物的伤害呢？


For the moment, a more realistic concern is not that robots will harm us, but that we will harm them.	然而就目前来说，更为现实的问题不是机器人会伤害我们，而是我们会伤害机器人。


At present, robots are mere items of property.	当前机器人还仅仅只是一项资产。


But what if they become sufficiently complex to have feelings?	但如果它们变得足够复杂，复杂到拥有了感觉，那又该怎么办？


After all, isn’t the human brain just a very complex machine?	毕竟我们的大脑也只是一个十分复杂的机器而已。


If machines can and do become conscious, will we take their feelings into account?	如果机器可以，并真的拥有了意识，我们会考虑它们的感受吗？


The history of our relations with the only nonhuman sentient beings we have encountered so far – animals – gives no ground for confidence that we would recognize sentient robots not just as items of property, but as beings with moral standing and interests that deserve consideration.	而到目前为止，就我们与自身所遇到唯一非人类却有感情的东西——动物——的关系来看，并没有多少证据可以证明我们会承认有感情的机器人不仅仅是一项资产，而是一种值得考虑其道德立场和利益的存在。


The cognitive scientist Steve Torrance has pointed out that powerful new technologies, like cars, computers, and phones, tend to spread rapidly, in an uncontrolled way.	认知技术学家史蒂夫·托伦斯（Steve Torrance）已经指出强大的新技术，诸如汽车，计算机和电话，有一种不受控制快速扩散的趋势。


The development of a conscious robot that (who?) was not widely perceived as a member of our moral community could therefore lead to mistreatment on a large scale. 	如果我们研制出拥有意识的机器人，但却并不将其视作人类道德群体的一分子的话，就将导致大范围的虐待行为。


The hard question, of course, is how we could tell that a robot really was conscious, and not just designed to mimic consciousness.	当然，核心问题是我们如何辨认一个机器人是否真的具有意识，还是只不过被设计来模仿有意识的行为。


Understanding how the robot had been programmed would provide a clue – did the designers write the code to provide only the appearance of consciousness?	了解机器人程序的编写过程可能会给我们提供一个线索——设计者编写的程序是否仅仅只提供了意识的表象？


If so, we would have no reason to believe that the robot was conscious.	如果是，那么我们就没理由相信这个机器人是有意识的。


But if the robot was designed to have human-like capacities that might incidentally give rise to consciousness, we would have a good reason to think that it really was conscious.	但如果这个机器人被设计为拥有人类的能力，并随之意外导致了意识的产生，那么我们就有理由相信它身上真有意识存在。


At that point, the movement for robot rights would begin.	到了那个时候，为机器人争取权利的运动就将如雨后春笋，破土而出。


The Right Fight Against Terrorism	正确地打击恐怖主义


LONDON – I traveled to Paris from London last Monday.	伦敦—上周，我从伦敦前往巴黎。


It takes two and a half hours by train.	坐火车需要两个半小时。


We are neighbors, our histories and populations intertwined.	我们是邻居，彼此的历史和人口有着千丝万缕的联系。


My ten-year-old grand-daughter will go there next week with her parents as a birthday treat.	下周，我十岁的孙女就要和父母亲一起去巴黎吃生日大餐。


She loves everything she has learned about Paris.	她爱极了一切她所知道的关于巴黎的东西。


So, like other Londoners, and citizens of free societies everywhere, she was horrified by the recent atrocities there.	因此，和其他伦敦人以及所有自由社会公民一样，她被最近的暴行吓坏了。


I suppose, she said, it could have happened here.	她说，我宁可发生在这里。


So it could – just as it did in 2005, and just as it could again in Madrid, or in Amsterdam, Berlin, Rome, or any other European city.	确实如此——比如2005年就曾发生过，马德里和萨姆斯特丹、罗马以及其他欧洲城市也可能再次发生。


When President François Hollande announced that we are at war with the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), the “we” included you and me.	法国总统奥朗德宣布我们正在与伊斯兰国发生战争，他说的“我们”包括你和我。


France’s fight is Britain’s fight and Europe’s fight.	法国的战争就是英国的战争，也是欧洲的战争。


It involves all of us.	它包括了我们所有人。


Globalization does not mean only mangoes at the supermarket in mid-winter, easy air travel, and the Internet.	全球化不仅意味着你可以在隆冬时节的超市中买到芒果，可以轻松地坐飞机旅行，可以上互联网。


Terror and barbarity have been globalized, too.	恐怖和暴行也在全球化。


Men and women can be taught, trained, and armed thousands of miles away and sent to our neighborhoods to kill and maim.	男性和女性可以在万里之外获得指导、训练和武装，然后被派往我们周边从事杀戮和致残行为。


International terror requires an international response.	国际恐怖主义需要国际响应。


But that response must include dialogue and diplomacy.	但这一响应必须包括对话和外交。


We must not be driven by horror and fear into forgetting our civic values.	我们决不能被恐怖所左右，以至于忘记了我们的公民价值。


That is precisely what the terrorists want.	这正是恐怖分子所想要的。


We must not demonize all Muslims.	我们决不能无差异地妖魔化穆斯林。


We must not burn interfaith bridges.	我们决不能自毁连接不同信仰的桥梁。


We must not abandon the core tenets of European civilization, including the obligation to shelter refugees from evil.	我们决不能放弃欧洲文明的核心信条，包括从恶魔手中解救难民。


German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s instinctive reaction to the influx should still be applauded, not condemned.	德国总理默克尔面对难民流入的本能反应仍应该受到赞扬而不是谴责。


Populist rabble-rousing against men and women of different faiths and ethnicities will divide our societies at the moment when we should be united.	民粹主义者煽动我们针对来自不同信仰和种族的人，这会在我们应该团结之际分裂我们的社会。


It will play into the hands of the terrorists.	这正中了恐怖分子下怀。


From Beirut to Paris, the terrorists’ attacks are a deliberate effort to exacerbate tensions between communities.	从贝鲁特到巴黎，恐怖分子的袭击是在故意扩大不同社会之间的紧张。


Marine Le Pen of France’s far-right National Front and others like her might as well be ISIS recruiting sergeants.	法国的马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）的极右翼国民阵线（National Front）和其他类似于她的人是在助伊斯兰国一臂之力。


Diplomacy was given a strong boost at the recently concluded G-20 meeting in Turkey.	在刚刚结束的G-20土耳其峰会上，外交受到了极大的提振。


That means, above all, obliging the Middle East’s main rivals, Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia and Shia-ruled Iran, to face up to their responsibility to reduce hostilities between Sunni and Shia groups and countries in West Asia.	这意味着首先要迫使中东的主要对立双方——逊尼派的沙特阿拉伯和什叶派的伊朗直面它们减少西亚逊尼派和什叶派群体和国家敌对状态的责任。


Western countries have been residual victims of the vicious struggles between Saudi and Iranian proxies.	西方国家一直是沙特和伊朗代理人之间的恶性斗争的剩余受害者。


We need to end the divisions among those in Syria who oppose ISIS.	我们必须结束叙利亚反对伊斯兰国之士之间的分歧。


That may involve giving a short-term role in a political transition to President Bashar al-Assad (partly to save Russia’s face).	这可以包括让总统巴沙尔·阿萨德在政治过渡期间起到短期作用（部分是为了保留俄罗斯的面子）。


But a president who has barrel bombed his own citizens cannot conceivably be part of a longer-term peaceful settlement.	但一位用桶弹（barrel bomb）轰炸本国公民的总统成为长期和平和解的一部分，这是绝对无法令人信服的。


The right political goals and diplomatic priorities are crucial.	正确的政治目标和外交重点至关重要。


But we must also face up to the fact that we will not defeat ISIS without a bigger, more effective, and better coordinated military effort.	但我们还必须直面一个事实，即如果没有规模更大、效果更好、更加协作的军事措施，我们就无法打败伊斯兰国。


We must drive ISIS out of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq.	我们必须将伊斯兰国驱逐出其单方面宣布在叙利亚和伊拉克所建立的哈里发帝国。


Otherwise, the territory it controls will continue to be a haven and training ground for murderers.	否则，伊斯兰国控制之下的领土将继续成为杀人犯的避风港和训练基地。


Perhaps more robust military intervention will provoke further atrocities.	也许更强硬的军事干预会引来更多的暴行。


But what is certain is that the attacks on civilization will continue until we have cut off ISIS’s head.	但可以肯定的是，针对文明的袭击一直都会存在，直到我们将伊斯兰国斩草除根。


As terrorists often brag, we have to succeed in stopping their assaults every time; they only have to succeed every now and then.	恐怖分子常常会大肆吹嘘，因此我们必须成功地阻止他们的每一次破坏； 而他们只需要偶尔成功一次。


Opponents of military intervention cite failure in Iraq and Afghanistan to justify inaction.	军事干预的反对者用在伊拉克和阿富汗的失败作为例证反对采取行动。


We should learn from those failures.	我们应该从这些失败中汲取教训。


But appeasement is not one of the lessons.	但绥靖决不在这些教训之列。


We will not make our free societies safe by bombing ISIS with strong nouns and weak verbs rather than high explosives.	我们必须用高爆炸弹，而不是雷声大雨点小的口诛笔伐来轰炸伊斯兰国，这样才能保证自由社会的安全。


To his credit, British Prime Minister David Cameron clearly understands the importance of increasing the military pressure on ISIS; he had been held back by a head-under-the-blanket faction in his own Conservative Party and in Parliament as a whole.	英国首相卡梅伦显然明白向伊斯兰国增加军事压力的重要性； 他受到了他所在的保守党内部和整个英国议会的强烈反对，这一反对让他抬不起头。


But Europe – indeed, civilization – won’t be kept safe by wishful thinking.	但欧洲——事实上，是文明——决不可能通过一厢情愿保持和平。


It may be that most of the boots on the ground will have to be worn by Arabs, Iranians, and Kurds, including members of the Peshmerga International Brigade.	很有可能，地面部队最后由阿拉伯人、伊朗人和库尔德人组成，包括自由斗士国际旅（Peshmerga International Brigade）成员。


But they need stronger support – not just in the air or with weapons and training, but also from Western special forces.	但他们需要更强大的支持——不仅仅是空中支持或武器和训练，还包括来自西方特种部队的支持。


There is a strong argument, too, for NATO to recognize that one of its members, France, has been attacked, thereby activating Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which ensures mutual defense.	还有很多人指出，北约应该承认其成员国之一法国受到打击，因此激活保证共同防务的北大西洋公约第五条。


The entire Alliance should commit itself to the defeat of terrorism.	整个北约都应该致力于打击恐怖主义。


Yet this is not only Europe’s fight, or that of the United States.	但这不仅仅是欧洲的战争或美国的战争。


This is about global order in a stable and prosperous world.	它事关稳定繁荣世界的全球秩序。


Russia and China should make clear in the United Nations Security Council that the destruction of ISIS is their fight as well.	俄罗斯和中国应该在联合国安理会上明确，摧毁伊斯兰国也是它们的战争。


All those young men and women cut down in Paris must not have been slaughtered in vain.	所有在巴黎被击倒的年轻男女决不能徒劳地死去。


Their deaths should challenge us to make sure that Paris, the city of light, will help to banish the darkness that threatens to overwhelm the century ahead.	他们之死应该刺激我们确保光之城巴黎刺破威胁着这个世纪的黑暗。


The Right Time for Climate Action	气候行动的合适时机


PARIS – During most of the roughly three decades since climate change became a global concern, governments optimistically assumed that a green transition would happen naturally over time, as rising fossil-fuel prices nudged consumers toward low-carbon alternatives.	巴黎——在气候变化成为全球关注的30年来的多数时间里，政府乐观地认为因为化石燃料价格上涨将逼迫消费者改用低碳能源，绿色转型会随着时间推移自然而然地发生。


The impediment, it was believed, was on the production side, as gushing returns on oilfield investments spurred ever more ambitious exploration.	他们认为障碍主要存在于生产领域，因为油田投资所取得的丰厚回报会激起更为雄心勃勃的勘探过程。


Today, the tables have turned.	今天，局势已经发生了逆转。


With oil prices languishing around $40 a barrel, fossil-fuel companies do not need governments to tell them to stop investing.	因为油价在每桶40美元附近波动，政府已经不需要告诉化石燃料企业停止投资。


The challenge has moved to the consumer side of the equation.	问题已经转移到方程的消费一侧。


With fuel prices so low, what can be done to change consumption patterns?	因为燃料价格如此低廉，需要采取哪些措施来改变消费模式？


To be sure, there are some signs that cheaper energy could generate enough growth to drive oil prices back up.	可以肯定，有迹象显示廉价能源可以带动增长促使油价回升。


But nobody predicts a rebound strong enough to prompt the radical transformation that will be required if countries are to meet their emissions-reduction goals.	但没有任何人预测这种回升强劲到能够促成根本性的转变，从而使各国实现其减排目标。


A 2015 OECD report shows how far behind countries are on their emissions targets – never mind their commitment to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2° Celsius.	尽管承诺要将全球气温升高限制在2℃以内，但2015年经合组织报告显示各国仍远远落后于其减排目标。


Meanwhile, oil majors are keen to remind us that we will need to burn fossil fuels for many more years as we gradually shift to a new energy economy.	此外，石油巨头热衷于提醒我们在向新能源经济逐渐过渡的过程中我们还要在很长时间里燃烧化石燃料。


So what are governments to do?	那么政府该怎么做？


There is near-universal agreement that no one will benefit from a dangerously warmer planet.	几乎所有人都同意危险的全球变暖会危及所有人。


But different countries have very different interests, depending on whether they are oil exporters or importers and how developed their economies are.	但不同国家利益有着很大的不同，这取决于他们是石油出口还是进口国及其国内经济的发达程度。


Oil-producing developing countries should consider whether their resources have an economic future, given diminishing scope for emissions.	发展中产油国应当思考在排放容量日益递减的情况下，他们的能源是否具有经济未来。


Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran – where oil is plentiful and cheap to extract – are likely to stay in business for some time.	（富油且采掘成本低廉的）沙特、伊拉克和伊朗等国很可能在一段时期内继续从事石油开采业务。


Even if the world rapidly decarbonizes, oil consumption will remain high enough for their resources to be worth extracting.	即使世界迅速去碳化，石油消费也足以让他们的资源开采值得。


But countries with less generous oil endowments need to implement economic reforms and eliminate subsidies.	但石油储量不那么丰富的国家就需要实行经济改革并取消补贴制度。


Saudi Arabia has made clear that it is no longer prepared to sacrifice market share to prop up more costly producers.	沙特阿拉伯已经明确表态不会再为支撑高价生产者而牺牲市场份额。


Its decision to maintain output at current levels – effectively neutering the OPEC cartel – has already had a dampening effect on competing supplies; nearly $400 billion of fossil-fuel investments have been shelved.	沙特决定保持目前的生产水平——这在事实上导致石油输出国组织名存实亡——已经起到了打击竞争者士气的效果； 近4000亿美元的化石燃料投资被搁置了。


Many governments have been forced to act.	很多国家政府被迫采取行动。


Russia announced a 10% cut in public spending as oil prices continued to slide this year.	随着油价今年继续下跌，俄罗斯宣布削减10%的公共支出。


And Indonesia should save almost $14 billion by scrapping gasoline subsidies and capping support for diesel fuel.	而印尼取消汽油补贴并限制柴油补贴可以节省近140亿美元的支出。


On the other side of the spectrum, oil-importing developed countries are most likely efficient users of fossil fuels already.	另一方面，发达的石油进口国最有可能已经是化石燃料的高效使用者。


Their economies, having proved they can cope with oil at $100 a barrel or more, clearly do not need an infusion of cheap energy to thrive.	事实证明他们的经济已经能够抵御每桶100美元甚至更为高价的能源压力，因此显然不需要注入廉价能源才能获得兴旺繁荣。


It is therefore a good time to introduce carbon taxes, so that the oil windfall is not simply gobbled up at the gas station.	因此，现在是开征碳税的好时机，这样才能避免石油暴利由加油站所独享。


These countries should shelve any delusions of finding “black gold,” enjoy the short-run benefits of cheap oil, and take action now to align infrastructure investments to changing technology.	这些国家应放弃发现“黑金”的一切幻想，享受廉价石油所带来的短期收益，同时采取行动让基础设施投资适应技术的不断变化。


Meanwhile, oil-producing developed countries should bank the remaining rents to enable capital substitution and ensure life after oil.	此外，发达产油国应储蓄余下的资金，以确保资本替代和后石油时代的生活。


This is what Norway has done, to significant national advantage, over the past 25 years.	过去25年来，挪威已经通过采取上述措施赢得了显著的国家优势。


Finally, it is governments of oil-importing developing countries that are likely to have the most urgent need for energy – and also the widest array of possibilities to meet that need.	最后，进口石油的发展中国家可能最急需能源——满足需求的可能性也最多。


They will be looking to the global community for support and will need to take a hard look at whether the energy solutions on offer are modern or sustainable.	他们将会寻求国际社会的支持，并需要认真审视现有能源方案的���代性及可持续程度。


The burden of proof must be on fossil-fuel-based solutions – particularly coal – to demonstrate their competitiveness after accounting for the full environmental, health, and social costs.	必须由化石燃料方案——尤其是煤炭——来承担举证责任，证明在完全承担环境、健康和社会成本后，它们的竞争力仍然最强。


It can sometimes seem like there is never a right time to take climate action.	有时看似永远没有合适的时机采取气候行动。


When growth is strong, people urge governments not to derail the gravy train.	增长强劲时，人们敦促政府不要放走发财的机会。


(Never mind that there is little evidence to suggest that a well-signaled, progressive implementation of a carbon tax would weigh on growth.)	（不顾以明确、渐进的方式推行碳税将拖累经济增长的证据不足。


When growth is weak, people ask incredulously how climate policy advocates could consider making things worse.	）而当增长乏力时，人们却难以置信地质问气候政策倡导者怎么可以在这样的时候让局面更糟。


There is never likely to be a perfect moment for introducing new climate policies.	或许永远找不到完美的时机来落实新的气候政策。


Long-run problems require policies that send long-run signals.	解决长期问题需要能发出长期信号的政策。


And these policies cannot be constantly fine-tuned to the volatility of the moment.	人们不能不断对上述政策进行微调来适应当前的波动。


Attempting to do so only fuels further volatility (which is what really hurts growth).	这样做只会引发进一步的波动（从而真正损害经济增长）。


Now is always as good a time as any to take action.	现在采取行动的时机不逊于任何时候。


And we should do so under no illusion that the transformative outcome we need will be a smooth, incremental process.	而且我们不应幻想所需要的转型是个平稳、渐进的过渡。


Technological changes whip up gales of creative destruction.	技术改革总是掀起创造性破坏的风暴。


There will be – must be – many losers.	肯定会有——也必须有——众多的失败者。


But there will also be winners, as new technologies create new business opportunities.	但同样会有人因此成功，因为新技术创造新商机。


Governments that try to protect the status quo will not only fail on climate change; they will ultimately impose higher social costs, even as they fail to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by reform.	试图保护现状的政府不仅会在气候变化问题上出师不利； 而且会因为未能抓住改革所创造的经济机会，他们最终付出的社会成本只会更高。


Climate-change policies must be steady and consistent.	气候变化政策必须一贯保持稳定。


Action must lubricate change, not repeatedly stop it in its tracks.	行动必须对改革起到润滑作用，而不是反复阻止它。


Once investors see that the fossil-fuel game is over, governments must let the effects of the resulting capital reallocation play out.	一旦投资者看到化石燃料的盛宴已经结束，政府必须让由此产生的资本再分配顺利发生。


It will be bumpy. But there is no other choice.	这个过程不会一帆风顺，但我们没有其他选择。


Trying to fine-tune an economic and technical adjustment path would be as futile as trying to control the price of crude oil.	试图微调经济和技术调整的路径会像试图控制原油价格那样劳而无功。


Privacy for Refugees	难民隐私


LONDON – With people living so much of their lives online nowadays, it is easier than ever for governments and companies to collect large amounts of personal information.	伦敦——因为当今时代民众长时间上网，政府和企业搜集个人信息比以往任何时候都要轻松。


Not surprisingly, data privacy is a hot topic.	因此数据隐私成为热门话题并不令人感到惊讶。


But there are plenty of people being left out of the debates.	但仍有很多人被排除在相关辩论之外。


And, unfortunately, those are the people who need the most attention.	而且不幸的是，他们恰恰是最需要关注的人群。


As much as Internet companies like Facebook or Google want to collect data about their users, there are limits to their power to do so.	即使像facebook或谷歌这样的互联网企业渴望搜集用户数据，但他们收集数据的权利是受到限制的。


Most of the time, there is a way to opt out of providing personal data, even if it is sometimes buried deep in a complex set of privacy settings.	多数情况下，用户可以选择不提供个人数据，即使有时相关选项被隐藏在一系列复杂的隐私设置之中。


If those opt-outs are not convincing enough, there are privacy-focused search engines or email providers.	如果这样的选择还无法让你相信，那么还存在以隐私为主打服务的搜索引擎或电子邮件提供商。


But some vulnerable populations – such as the nearly five million Syrians who have been forced from their home country – cannot opt out, unless they want to be sent right back to a warzone.	但某些弱势群体——比如近500万被迫背井离乡的叙利亚难民——无权选择隐私保密，除非他们想要被立即遣返回交战地区。


If they hope to be granted refugee status – not to mention food, clothing, shelter, and other basic necessities – they have to give whatever information the NGOs, IGOs, aid agencies, and humanitarian workers request.	如果他们希望获得难民地位——更不要说食物、衣物、住所和其他基本的生活必需品——他们就必须提供非政府组织、政府间机构、援助机构和人道主义工作人员所要求提供的任何信息。


In other words, for refugees, whether to provide personal information, from religious beliefs to biometric data, can be a matter of life and death.	换句话讲，对难民而言，是否提供从宗教信仰到生物识别数据的个人信息可能事关生死。


But what if those data fell into the wrong hands?	但如果这些信息落入坏人手中会产生什么样的后果？


With the organizations responsible for data security operating in low-resource, high-pressure circumstances, it is not an unreasonable question.	因为负责数据安全的机构在资源匮乏、压力沉重的环境下工作，这并不是一个不合理的问题。


The exposed refugees might be in serious danger.	信息泄露的难民有可能面临严重的威胁。


Sensitive information is being circulated among an increasingly wide array of actors, such as third-party financial institutions, technology developers, cloud computing service providers, and other humanitarian agencies.	敏感信息往往在牵涉面越来越广的行为主体间传播，比如第三方金融机构、技术开发企业、云计算服务提供商和其他人道主义机构。


Every time that information is shared – whether it is entered into a new database or a new actor gains access to a single aggregated database – the risk of privacy breaches grows.	每次信息共享——无论是录入新数据库还是新操作者获得调阅某个汇总数据库的权限——隐私泄露的风险都会随之增加。


There is no shortage of groups that would love to get their hands on the data.	有大量机构想要获得这些数据。


Over the last few years, the Syrian Electronic Army, which supports the brutal regime of President Bashar al-Assad, has successfully hacked into a number of secure databases.	过去几年来，支持巴沙尔·阿萨德总统野蛮政府的叙利亚电子军已经成功侵入了若干安全数据库。


Of course, this is not to say that collecting data on refugees is fundamentally wrong.	当然这并不是说搜集难民信息从本质上有什么错误。


The reality is that many governments could not justify accepting refugees without a thorough vetting process – and that demands data.	现实情况是，许多政府不经过彻底的审查过程就找不到合理的接收难民的依据——而它们需要数据才能完成审查程序。


Moreover, using biometric data like iris scans, rather than bankcards, offers some advantages for aid-delivery – namely, ensuring that assistance is delivered to its intended recipient.	此外，利用虹膜扫描等生物识别信息代替银行卡在援助提供过程中会带来某些优势——具体而言就是确保将援助提供给预期的接受者。


But there is a need to assess whether all of the kinds of data that are currently collected are really needed.	但有必要评估目前搜集的各类信息是不是绝对必要的。


Does collecting them genuinely advance the objectives of providing support to refugees?	搜集这些信息是否真的有助于实现向难民提供援助的目标？


Are the benefits of using biometric data significant enough that refugees should have no alternative?	采用生物识别数据是否绝对必要，以至于我们除了要求难民提供信息别无选择？


(According to a 2013 report, many refugees are indeed concerned about providing biometric data.)	（2013年一份报告显示，很多难民其实对提供生物识别数据很有顾虑。 ）


For the data that are deemed useful and necessary, there is a need to review collection, storage, and sharing processes, in order to ensure that sensitive information is never compromised.	对于那些评估认定为有用和必要的数据，为确保敏感信息永远不被泄露，有必要对收集、存储和共享的程序进行审核。


Exchanges of personal data among companies, humanitarian groups, and government agencies should be allowed only when they are truly necessary, and should be conducted as securely as possible.	个人数据在企业、人道主义团体和政府机构之间的交换只有在真正必要时才能够被允许，并且在数据交换时要尽可能注意安全。


Privacy is not a privilege – a comfort that desperate people should have to give up.	隐私绝不是某种身处绝境的民众应当彻底放弃的特权。


It is a fundamental human right, enshrined in the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights.	它是联合国世界人权宣言庄严规定的一项基本人权。


International law obliges data controllers and processors to protect data sets containing personal data, particularly in the context of large-scale monitoring of individuals.	国际法要求数据控制和处理机构保护包含个人信息的集合数据，尤其是在实行大规模个人监管的环境中。


Though some IGOs are exempt from these requirements, such organizations must strive to implement best practices with regard to privacy, ethics, and data protection.	尽管某些政府间组织可以不受相关规定的限制，但上述机构必须全力确保隐私、道德和数据保护等最佳惯例的落实。


After all, it makes little sense to collect data for the sake of protecting vulnerable populations, only to leave those data vulnerable to breaches by dangerous actors.	归根结底，如果搜集信息只会让相关数据容易受到危险主体的利用，那么为保护弱势群体起见而搜集信息就没有什么意义。


The first step is to carry out a privacy impact assessment (PIA).	首要步骤是推进隐私影响评估（PIA）工作。