But all the evidence shows that relying on knowledge about obesity and willpower is not enough to offset the evolutionary instinct to overeat.	但所有证据都表明，依赖关于肥胖的知识和意志力不足以战胜过度饮食的进化本能。


These effects are compounded by lifestyles that require little or no physical activity.	这方面的影响因为少动甚至不动的生活方式而进一步加剧。


People need help, and that means changing the environmental forces shaping their decisions – by, say, reducing standard portion sizes, altering marketing practices, and designing cities and educational establishments to make it easier for people to exercise or be active.	人们需要帮助，而这意味着改变影响他们决策的环境因素——比如通过降低标准分量、改变营销策略、将城市和教育设施设计成更便于锻炼和活动等。


MGI was able to collect enough data on 44 of the 74 potential interventions to develop an initial assessment of their impact if they were scaled up to a national level.	MGI能够收集到74种潜在干预手段中的44种的足够多的数据，评估这些手段扩大到全国范围时的影响。


If the United Kingdom, for example, were to deploy all 44 interventions, it could rein in obesity rates and help roughly 20% of its overweight and obese population return to a healthy weight within 5-10 years.	比如，如果英国实施全部44种干预手段，可以遏制肥胖率并帮助约20%的超重和肥胖人口在5—10年内恢复健康体重。


Over the long term, savings from reduced health-care spending and gains from higher productivity could outweigh the investment needed to deliver interventions.	从长期看，降低医疗支出所获得的节约以及提高生产率所获得的收益能够超过实施干预所需要的投资。


In the UK, reversing obesity trends could save the National Health Service about $1.2 billion a year.	在英国，扭转肥胖趋势可以让全国医保（National Health Service）每年节约约12亿美元。


For many countries, tackling obesity will require a national – if not global – effort.	对许多国家来说，战胜肥胖需要全国乃至全球措施。


Only a coherent, sustained portfolio of initiatives, implemented on a large scale, will be effective.	唯有大规模实施连贯持续的组合手段才能取得效果。


No single entity – government, retailers, consumer-goods companies, restaurants, employers, media organizations, educators, health-care providers, or individuals – can address obesity on its own.	单一实体——政府、零售商、消费品公司、餐厅、雇主、媒体、教育系统、医疗服务商或个人——无法独力战胜肥胖。


We do not yet have all the answers when it comes to the best way to tackle obesity.	对于什么才是解决肥胖问题的最佳方式，我们还没有找到所有答案。


But the rapid rise in obesity rates around the world creates a strong case for experimenting with interventions, to see what works.	但全球肥胖率的快速上升强烈表明应该采取干预性实验以观后效。


Today, investment in obesity research worldwide amounts to some $4 billion a year – just 0.2% of the estimated social costs of obesity.	如今，全球肥胖研究投资每年大约为40亿美元，只有肥胖社会成本估计值的0. 2%。


We can – and must – do more.	我们可以——也必须——做得更多。


Global Risk and Reward in 2011	2011年的全球风险和机遇


NEW YORK – The outlook for the global economy in 2011 is, partly, for a persistence of the trends established in 2010. These are: an anemic, below-trend, U-shaped recovery in advanced economies, as firms and households continue to repair their balance sheets; a stronger, V-shaped recovery in emerging-market countries, owing to stronger macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals.	发自纽约——在某种程度上，2011年将会是一系列2010年趋势的延伸——发达经济体将经历一个贫血且落后于大势的U型复苏，因为企业和家庭都需要时间去修复自身的资产负债表；


That adds up to close to 4% annual growth for the global economy, with advanced economies growing at around 2% and emerging-market countries growing at about 6%.	而得益于强大的宏观经济，财政和政策手段，新兴市场经济体将实现强劲的V型复苏。 这意味着全球经济将在2011年取得大概4%的增长，其中发达经济体增长约2%，而新兴市场国家则有6%。


But there are downside and upside risks to this scenario.	而在这种情况中，下行风险和上升机遇是同时存在的。


On the downside, one of the most important risks is further financial contagion in Europe if the eurozone’s problems spread – as seems likely – to Portugal, Spain, and Belgium.	在下行风险方面，其中一个最严峻的问题就是如果欧元区的问题向葡萄牙，西班牙和比利时蔓延（这种可能性极大），欧洲国家的财政危机将进一步恶化。


Given the current level of official resources at the disposal of the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, Spain now seems too big to fail yet too big to be bailed out.	考虑到国际货币基金组织以及欧盟当前掌握的官方资源总量，他们一方面无法承受西班牙财政崩溃的后果，另一方面却又无力拯救如此庞大的一个国家。


The United States represents another downside risk for global growth.	而美国则代表了全球增长的另一个下行风险。


In 2011, the US faces a likely double dip in the housing market, high unemployment and weak job creation, a persistent credit crunch, gaping budgetary holes at the state and local level, and steeper borrowing costs as a result of the federal government’s lack of fiscal consolidation.	2011年的美国将可能遭遇住宅市场二次探底、高失业率新增职位不足、长期信用恐慌、各州和地方政府预算缺口增大，以及由于联邦政府财政状况不够稳定而导致的借贷成本急升。


Moreover, credit growth on both sides of the Atlantic will be restrained, as many financial institutions in the US and Europe maintain a risk-averse stance toward lending.	此外由于金融机构更倾向于规避风险，所以欧美两地的信贷增长将十分有限。


In China and other emerging-market economies, delays in policy tightening could fuel a rise in inflation that forces a tougher clampdown later, with China, in particular, risking a hard landing.	在中国以及其他新兴市场经济体，未能及时收紧的财政政策将导致通货膨胀以及随之而来的铁腕降温政策，特别是中国的“硬着陆”风险较大。


There is also a risk that capital inflows to emerging markets will be mismanaged, thus fueling credit and asset bubbles.	那些流入新兴市场的资金可能无法得到妥善管理，并因此催生信贷和资产泡沫。


Moreover, further increases in oil, energy, and commodity prices could lead to negative terms of trade and a reduction in real disposable income in net commodity-importing countries, while adding to inflationary pressures in emerging markets.	另外石油，能源和商品价格的进一步上升将对贸易产生负面影响，既减少了那些商品净进口国的实际可支配收入，同时也会增加新兴市场国家的通胀压力。


Moreover, currency tensions will remain high.	此外在货币方面的紧张状况依旧严峻。


Countries with large current-account deficits need nominal and real depreciation (to sustain growth via net exports while ongoing private- and public-sector deleveraging keeps domestic demand weak), whereas surplus countries (especially emerging markets) are using currency intervention to resist nominal appreciation and sterilized intervention to combat real appreciation.	那些拥有巨额经常账户赤字的国家需要将其货币进行名义或者实际的贬值（由于私人和公共部门的去杠杆化过程导致本地需求持续疲软，他们只能通过净出口的方式来维持增长），而那些贸易顺差国（特别是那些新兴市场国家）则一方面利用货币干预去抗拒名义升值，另一方面通过冲销干预去反抗实际升值。


This is forcing deficit countries into real exchange-rate adjustments via deflation – and thus a rising burden of public and private debt that may lead to disorderly defaults.	这导致那些赤字国家只能通过通货紧缩的方式来调整实际汇率——但这会引发公共和私人负债持续上升，最终导致大规模的信用违约


Furthermore, several major geopolitical risks loom, including military confrontation between North and South Korea and the lingering possibility that Israel – or even the US – might use military force to counter Iran’s nuclear weapons program. There are also the political and economic turmoil in Pakistan and the risk of a rise in cyber-attacks – for example, in retaliation for criminal proceedings against WikiLeaks.	另外一系列主要地缘政治风险也将逼近，包括朝鲜和韩国之间的军事冲突，以色列——甚至是美国——动用武力打击伊朗核计划的可能性也持续存在，此外还有巴基斯坦的政治和经济危机，以及网络袭击事件的进一步升温——比如那些针对维基解密组织的犯罪行为以及随之而来的报复行动。


In the US, slower private-sector deleveraging – given the fiscal stimulus from the extension of unemployment benefits for 13 months, the payroll-tax cut, and maintenance of current income-tax rates for another two years – could lull policymakers into assuming that relatively large fiscal and current-account imbalances can continue indefinitely.	在美国，缓慢的私人部门去杠杆化过程——考虑到失业补助期延长到13个月，工资税削减以及维持现行所得税率两年不变等一系列财政刺激政策——将导致政策制定者们以为相对较大的财政和经常账户不平衡状况可以无限期地持续下去。


This could generate financial strains over the medium term – and protectionist pressures in the short term.	但此举实际上将在中期导致财政紧张，并在短期内带来贸易保护主义的压力。


Finally, in the face of political opposition to fiscal consolidation, especially in the US, there is a risk that the path of least resistance becomes continued monetization of fiscal deficits.	最终，面对反对财政巩固政策的政治阻力（尤其是在美国），一个可能的风险就是各国政府会以持续铸币的做法来规避这些阻力。


Eventually (once the slack in goods and labor markets is reduced), this would push inflation expectations – and yield curves – higher.	但此举最终（一旦商品和劳动力市场的萧条状况得到改善）将促使通胀预期（以及财政收益率曲线）持续上升。


But there are also several upside risks.	但还有许多上升机遇存在。


The US corporate sector is strong and very profitable, owing to massive labor shedding, creating scope for increased capital spending and hiring to contribute to more robust and above-trend GDP growth in 2011.	由于大规模的员工削减，美国的公司经济部门非常强劲且利润丰厚，并为进一步的资本支出和雇佣创造了空间以支持更有活力且领先于大势的2011年GDP增长。


Similarly, the eurozone, driven by Germany, could lurch toward greater economic and political union (especially some form of fiscal union), thus containing the problems of its periphery.	同样，德国领导下的欧元区将向更大程度的经济和政治联盟（尤其是某些形式的财政联盟）逐步靠拢，并因此解决欧元区外围国家的相关问题。


Meanwhile, growth in Germany and the eurozone “core” may further accelerate given the strength of emerging markets, which may show even greater resilience, underpinning more rapid global expansion.	与此同时，德国以及欧元区“核心国”的增长将在新兴市场的助力下进一步加快，这些国家的复原能力将进一步增强，并为更迅猛的全球扩张打下基础。


The attenuation of downside risks and pleasant surprises in developed and emerging economies could lead to a further increase in demand for risky assets (equities and credit), which would reinforce economic recovery via wealth effects and lower borrowing costs.	下行风险的减弱以及发达和新兴经济体的可喜进步将进一步刺激对风险资产（股票和信贷）的需求，并将通过财富效应和更低的贷款利率促进经济复苏。


Positive feedback from consumption to production, employment, and income generation – both within countries and across countries via trade channels – could further accelerate the pace of global growth, particularly if monetary policies in most advanced economies remain looser than expected, supporting asset reflation and thus demand and growth.	从消费到生产，就业和收入的正反馈——同时通过国内和国家贸易两个渠道实现——将进一步加快全球增长速度，如果大多数发达经济体的货币政策能比预期中更宽松的话，这就将支持资产增值并因此推动需求和增长。


Indeed, after four years (2007-2010) of either recession or sub-par recovery, the process of balance-sheet repair – while not completed yet – is underway, and may result in less saving and more spending to boost growth in advanced economies.	事实上，在经历四年（2007-2010）的衰退或者低速复苏后，资产负债表的修复进程——虽未彻底完成——正在不断推进，也将会带来更少的储蓄以及更多的消费去刺激发达经济体的增长。


The damage from the financial crisis is still ongoing, but stronger growth can heal many wounds, especially debt-driven wounds.	金融危机所造成的影响依旧持续，但更强劲的增长将安抚许多创伤，尤其是那些由债务所引发的创伤。


So far, the downside and upside risks for the world economy are balanced.	迄今为止，世界经济的下行风险和上升机遇正处于某种平衡状态。


But if sound government policies in advanced and major emerging economies contain the downside risks that are more prevalent in the first half of this year – which derive from political and policy uncertainty – a more resilient global economic recovery could take hold in the second half of 2011 and into 2012.	但如果能提前制定明智的政治政策，而那些主要新兴经济体也能控制那些更可能在今年上半年出现的下行风险——这可能由政治或者政策上的不确定性产生——更有活力的全球经济复苏将在2011年下半年出现，并持续到2012年。


Technology and the Employment Challenge	技术和就业挑战


MILAN – New technologies of various kinds, together with globalization, are powerfully affecting the range of employment options for individuals in advanced and developing countries alike – and at various levels of education.	米兰—各种新技术和全球化一道，正在大大影响发达国家和发展中国家各个教育层次的个人就业选择范围。


Technological innovations are not only reducing the number of routine jobs, but also causing changes in global supply chains and networks that result in the relocation of routine jobs – and, increasingly, non-routine jobs at multiple skill levels – in the tradable sector of many economies.	技术创新不但减少了常规工作数量，也引起了全球供应链和网络的改变，从而导致许多国家可贸易部门的常规工作以及存在各种技能要求的非常规工作的重新分配。


How, then, should policymakers confront the new and difficult challenges for employment (and, in turn, for the distribution of income and wealth), especially in developed economies?	那么，决策者——特别是发达国家决策者——应该如何面对这一新的就业大挑战（以及反过来对收入和财富分配的挑战）呢？


From recent research, we have learned a number of interesting things about how the evolution of economic structure affects employment.	我们可以从当前的研究中得到许多关于经济结构的演化如何影响就业的有趣结论。


The tradable side of advanced economies has not generated any real net increases in employment for at least two decades, while the jobs that it has created are concentrated in the upper-income and upper-education ranges, with employment declining in the middle and lower range of income and education.	发达国家可贸易方面至少已经有20年没有产生任何实质就业增长了，即使创造了就业岗位，也集中在高收入、高学历层次，而中低收入和学历就业在减少。


Growth in high-end services employment is matched by contraction in high-employment components of manufacturing supply chains.	高端服务业就业岗位的增加与制造业供应链高就业要素的衰减相匹配。


Until the crisis of 2008, middle- and lower-income job growth occurred entirely in the non-tradable sector of the economy, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of advanced countries’ output and employment.	在2008年危机爆发前，中低收入增长完全来自经济中的不可贸易部门，该部门大约要占发达国家产出和就业的三分之二。


Here, incomes and value added per employee remained largely flat.	在这里，雇员人均收入和增值几乎保持恒定。


Jobs could be eliminated by technology, but not by global competition; and, unsustainable, debt-fueled domestic-demand growth helped to delay the current employment deficits.	就业岗位可能因技术而削减，但不会因全球竞争而削减； 而不可持续的债务推动内需增长使当前的贸易赤字延迟了。


As a result, the advanced economies have been shedding routine jobs at a rapid rate, while adding non-routine jobs (for example, those that cannot yet be replaced or reduced by machines and networked computers).	结果，发达国家以更快的速度削减常规岗位，同时增加非常规岗位（比如仍无法用机器和联网电脑取代和削减的岗位）。


This has fueled a dramatic rise in the return on education and high-level skills, with the share of total income received by owners of capital and high-end employees increasing in advanced countries for more than two decades.	这使得教育和高水平技能的回报大增，发达国家资本所有者和高端雇员收入比重二十多年来持续增加。


Growth and employment are thus diverging in advanced countries.	于是，发达国家的增长和就业出现了分离。


The key force driving this trend – technology – is playing multiple roles.	这一趋势的关键推动力——技术在其中扮演者多重角色。


The replacement of routine manual jobs by machines and robots is a powerful, continuing, and perhaps accelerating trend in manufacturing and logistics, while networks of computers are replacing routine white-collar jobs in information processing.	常规人力岗位被机器和机器人取代是一个强大而持续的趋势，这一趋势在制造业和物流业中可能会进一步加速，与此同时，电脑网络正在取代信息处理行业的常规白领岗位。


Part of this is pure automation.	这一趋势的一部分来自纯粹的自动化。


Another important part is disintermediation – the elimination of intermediaries in banking, online retail, and a host of government services, to name just a few affected areas.	另一部分则来自脱媒——银行、在线零售以及一部分政府服务不再需要中介——这只是其中的几个例子。


But technology’s impact does not stop there.	但技术的影响并未到此为止。


The same class of information technologies that automate, disintermediate, and reduce the costs of remoteness are also enabling the construction of increasingly complex and geographically diverse global supply chains and networks.	实现自动化、脱媒化和降低远程成本的信息技术同样使建设越来越复杂、地缘上越来越多样的全球供应链和网络成为可能。


Global supply chains – constantly in flux, owing to rising developing-country incomes and shifting comparative advantage – locate productive activities where human and other resources make those activities competitive.	全球供应链——由于发展中国家收入的增加和比较优势的变迁，全球供应链一直在流动——能够将生产活动配置在人力和其他资源最具竞争力的地方。


Links in these chains include not only intermediate products and assembly, but also a growing range of services – research and development, design, maintenance and support, customer service, business processes, and more – as transaction, coordination, and communication costs fall.	随着交易、合作和通信成本的下降，链环不仅包括中间产品和装配线，也包括越来越多的服务——研发、设计、维护和支持、客户服务、商业流程及其他。


The result is what is sometimes called the “atomization” of global supply chains: increasingly fine subdivisions are feasible, more efficient, and locatable almost anywhere.	结果带来了有时被称为全球供应链的“自动化”的东西：越来越细的细分成为了可能，变得更加高效，几乎可以在配置于任何地点。


Proximity still matters in terms of transport and logistics costs.	临近性在运输和物流成本方面仍是相当重要的因素。


But, with the developing world accounting for the largest new markets and most of the growth in global demand, the logic driving atomization should become even more compelling.	但是，随着发展中世界开始占据最大的新市场、产生全球需求增长的大头，推动自动化的逻辑将变得越来越强。


The efficient ongoing decomposition of global supply chains, networks, and services has two related consequences.	全球供应链、网络和服务的持续高效分解造成了两个相关后果。


First, the tradable part of the global economy – where competition for economic activity and jobs is direct – is becoming a larger share of the whole; the same is true of individual economies.	首先，全球经济的可贸易部门——在该部门，经济活动和就业岗位的竞争是直接的——占经济的总比重增加了； 对于个体国家来说也是如此。


Second, parts of global supply chains that were not competitive are no longer protected by being adjacent to parts that were.	其次，全球供应链中无竞争力的部分将不再会因为毗邻高竞争力部分而得到保护。


Adjacency is no longer a requirement.	临近性不再是一项必要条件。


These dynamics and related challenges are not confined to advanced countries.	这些动态以及相关挑战并不只是发达国家才需要面对。


Over the next decade, for example, China will replace much of its labor-intensive assembly employment with higher-value-added employment in manufacturing and services, not only in the tradable sector, but also – even more noticeably – in the rapidly growing non-tradable part of its economy.	比如，在未来十年，中国将以高增加值制造业和服务业岗位取代大量劳动密集型装配岗位，不但在可贸易部门是如此，在快速增长的不可贸易部门同样如此（甚至有过之而无不及）。


The expanding scope and diminishing costs of automation and additive manufacturing may affect labor-intensive functions globally, including in earlier-stage developing countries.	自动化和快速成型制造业领域的扩张和成本的下降将影响全球劳动密集型产业，包括位于早期发展阶段国家者。


A key factor in adapting to these forces is investment.	适应这些趋势的一个关键要素是投资。


For individuals, businesses, educational institutions, and governments in advanced countries, broad-based, elevated, and efficient investment in education and skills is critical.	对发达国家个人、企业、教育机构和政府来说，宽基础、大手笔、高效率的教育和技能投资是至关重要的。


Closing wide information gaps in the market for skills would also increase the efficiency of these investments.	填补技能市场的信息空白也将增加这类投资的效率。


Across-the-board upgrading of human capital will improve income distribution both directly and indirectly (by reducing the supply of lower-skill workers relative to demand).	人力资本的全面升级将直接和间接地改善收入分配（通过降低相对于需求的低技能工人供给）。


It will also (partly) mitigate the concentration of wealth that results from a highly skewed income distribution.	这也将（部分地）减轻由收入分配的严重漏洞导致的财富集中状况


On the tradable side, competitiveness depends not only on human capital, but also on a host of other factors: infrastructure, tax systems, regulatory efficiency, policy-induced uncertainty, and energy and health-care costs.	在可贸易方面，竞争力不但取决于人力资本，也取决于其他一些因素：基础设施、税收制度、监管效率、政策导致的不确定性、以及能源和卫生成本。


There is no guarantee that taking the right steps in these areas would entirely overcome the employment challenges that individuals and countries face, though doing so would help.	不能保证在这些领域采取正确步骤就能完全克服个人和国家所面临的就业挑战，尽管这样做会有所助益。


In fact, it is possible that we are entering a period in which major adaptations in employment models, work weeks, contract labor, minimum wages, and the delivery of essential public services will be needed in order to maintain social cohesion and uphold the core values of equity and intergenerational mobility.	事实上，也许我们正在步入这样的阶段：需要就业模式、工作周、合同工、最低工资和基本公共服务的供应方面的大适应来维持社会凝聚力、保证公平和代际流动的核心价值。


Where Has Global Warming Gone?	全球变暖已达何种程度？


SEATTLE – For the last quarter of the twentieth century, the average temperature at the surface of the earth edged inexorably upward.	西雅图—二十世纪的后二十五年，地球表面平均温度呈现稳步上升之势。


Then, to the surprise even of scientists, it stopped.	接着，升温停止了，连科学家也大吃一惊。


The concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere continued to rise; indeed, it is higher today than it has been for centuries.	大气中二氧化碳浓度在继续上升； 事实上，今天的浓度比几个世纪以来都要高。


And yet, for the last 15 years, according to the conventional way of measuring global warming, the planet does not seem to have become any hotter.	但是，在过去15年中，按衡量全球变暖的传统指标，地球并未变得更热。


What explains this unexpected turn of events, and what does it mean for future climate policy?	事情出人意料的转变原因何在，对未来气候政策又意味着什么？


The pause in the rise of surface temperatures is real.	地表温度升高暂停确是事实。


It can be observed in surveys of the surface of the sea and in satellite measurements of the troposphere.	海洋表面和对流层卫星测量结果观察到了这一现象。 但为何如此？


But the reason it has occurred is not that our greenhouse-gas emissions are no longer changing the earth’s climate; it is that surface temperature is a poor metric for human-induced warming.	原因不是我们的温室气体排放不再改变地球气候； 而是因为地表温度并非衡量人为导致变暖的好指标。


Indeed, what scientists have figured out is that, instead of warming the surface, the excess heat that is being generated has gone to the deeper oceans.	事实上，科学家发现，产生的过多热量并没有让地表变暖，而是去了更深的海洋。


This calls into question some of the international strategies for combating climate change that are currently being negotiated, such as those aimed at preventing the global temperature at the earth’s surface from rising more than 2º Celsius above the pre-industrial average.	这意味着一些目前正在谈判的国际气候变化遏制战略有问题，比如将全球地表温度上升幅度限制在前工业时代平均水平之上2℃以内的目标。


Scientists probably did not adequately convey to the public that their projections for future warming are based on models that account only for the so-called “forced response” in global mean surface temperatures – that is, the change caused by greenhouse-gas emissions.	科学家也许并没有让公众充分了解他们对未来变暖程度的预测是基于只考虑了全球平均表面温度的所谓“强制反应”的模型，即由温室气体排放导致的温度变化。


But what is observed at the surface includes unforced, or natural, variations, such as the El Niño and La Niña fluctuations from year to year, and the 60-70 year cycle from the fluctuations of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt in the Atlantic.	但对地表的观察包括了非强制或者说自然的变量，比如年复一年发生的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象以及以60—70年为周期的大西洋大洋传送带（Great Ocean Conveyor Belt）波动循环。


In fact, this cycle is now thought to bury heat deep in the oceans periodically.	事实上，现在人们认为这一循环定期将热量埋入深海。


And, because it existed even before humans put significant carbon into the atmosphere, it is likely natural.	而由于该循环在人类向大气中大量排放碳之前就已存在，它很有可能是自然变量。


Given the oceans’ massive heat-storage capacity, determining how much of the warming remains at the surface over the course of decades is a very difficult task.	海洋有巨大的储热能力，这意味着测量在几十年的跨度内有多少变暖程度留在地表是一个非常困难的任务。


Though the challenge is beginning to be appreciated, current projections of the dreaded two-degree warming have yet to take into account variable ocean cycles.	尽管这一挑战开始得到承认，但目前对升温两度的生死线的预测仍没有考虑海洋循环这一变量。


To be sure, surface temperatures remain important.	平心而论，地表温度仍是很重要。


They are a better measure of the threats posed by climate change than heat sequestered underwater.	它们更适合作为气候变化所带来的危机的衡量指标，而非隐匿于水下的热量的衡量指标。


But some of the threats that scientists (and economists) deduce from the surface temperature also reflect natural climate change, and thus cannot be mitigated through the reduction of CO2 emissions.	但是，一些科学家（还有经济学家）根据地表温度推断的也反映了自然气候变化，因此不能通过减少二氧化碳排放遏制。


The total amount of heat contained in oceans responds to changes in emissions, and is therefore a better metric for measuring such responses.	海洋所包含的总热量随排放变化而变化，因此这是测量这些变化的更好指标。


Indeed, it has continued to warm as expected, even as the surface temperature has stopped rising.	事实上，它持续地如预期那样变暖，即使地表温度已停止上升。


The oceans’ heat content is measured by a network of more than 3,000 free-drifting robotic floats spread out across the world’s waters, where they routinely dive 2,000 meters beneath the surface.	海洋的热含量由分布在全世界海域的3,000多个自由漂移的浮动机器人网络测量，它们通常潜在2,000米深的深海。


The temperature they measure is transmitted to orbiting satellites and made available online to anyone in near-real time.	它们所测量到的温度被传输到轨道卫星，所有人都可以近似实时地获得数据。


For ease of interpretation, the oceans’ heat content can easily be converted to a mean temperature after dividing by a constant.	为了方便解读，海洋热含量可以通过除以一个常数简单地转换为平均温度。


In time, models could demonstrate how to relate this new global metric to emissions’ regional climate impact.	模型可以随时说明如何将这一新的全球指标与排放的地区气候影响联系起来。


The intensive scientific search for an explanation for the pause in global warming at the earth’s surface has led to a better understanding of the complex functioning of the climate.	我们对如何解释地球表面温度全球性升高暂停做了大量科学研究，这让我们能够更好地理解气候的复杂关系。


It confirms the long-held theory that the earth has an energy budget that is affected by radiative perturbations at the top of the atmosphere, though partitioning that energy between the surface and the deeper oceans has been difficult.	这些研究确认了一个早已存在的理论——地球有一个能源预算，这一能源预算受大气顶部辐射波动的影响，但将该预算分解为表面和深海是十分困难的。


Nobody knows how long the current pause will last.	没人知道目前的升温暂停会持续多久。


Nonetheless, at some point, the natural cycles will shift; the oceans will cease to absorb the bulk of the planet’s warming; and surface temperatures will begin to climb again.	尽管如此，在某个时刻，自然循环会发生变化； 海洋将停止吸收大部分地球升温；


When they do, we can expect the increase to resume the rapid pace observed during the late twentieth century, when surface temperature rose by about 0.17 degrees Celsius every ten years.	地表温度将再次开始升高。 当这一幕发生时，我们可以预期，地表温度的升高速度将回到20世纪后期所观察到的速度，即每十年升高0.


In the meantime, whether the overall risk to our environment has been reduced by the pause remains an open question.	与此同时，对我们的环境所造成的总风险是否因为升温暂停而降低仍是一个开放性问题。


Some argue that what went down will eventually come back up.	一些人认为有落必有起。


The sloshing back and forth of warm and cold waters – El Niño and La Niña – in the shallow layer of the equatorial Pacific Ocean will continue to produce fluctuations in surface temperatures every year.	太平洋赤道浅层暖流和冷流——厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜——的交替将继续制造每年的地表温度波动。


Over longer periods, however, the risk that the heat currently stored in the deep ocean will resurface is remote.	但是，���更长的时间里，目前存储在深海中的热量重新浮出表面的风险很小。


One thing is clear.	有一点是清楚的。


Monitoring surface temperatures does not give us an accurate enough representation of human-induced global warming.	监控表面温度无法让我们足够准确地观察人为造成的全球变暖。


As long as we lack a clear understanding of the relationship between our cumulative greenhouse-gas emissions and the temperature of the earth, it will remain difficult to assess the potential for damage related to climate change caused by humans – or develop the right strategies to minimize it.	除非我们能更清楚地理解我们的累计温室气体排放量和地球温度之间的关系，否则评估与人为导致的气候变化有关的潜在危险就十分困难，制定使这一危险最小化的正确战略也十分困难。


The Post-Crisis Crises	后危机时代的危机


NEW YORK – In the shadow of the euro crisis and America’s fiscal cliff, it is easy to ignore the global economy’s long-term problems.	发自纽约——在欧元危机和美国财政悬崖的阴影之下，人们很容易会忽略全球经济的一些长期问题。


But, while we focus on immediate concerns, they continue to fester, and we overlook them at our peril.	但当我们着眼于解决燃眉之急时，这些长期问题却在忽视中逐步恶化。


The most serious is global warming.	目前最严重的问题是全球变暖。


While the global economy’s weak performance has led to a corresponding slowdown in the increase in carbon emissions, it amounts to only a short respite.	尽管全球经济的差劲表现导致了碳排放增速的相应放缓，但这也仅仅是一个短暂的缓解。


And we are far behind the curve: Because we have been so slow to respond to climate change, achieving the targeted limit of a two-degree (centigrade) rise in global temperature, will require sharp reductions in emissions in the future.	在这个问题上我们已经非常落后了：由于我们对气候变化的反应一直都极为缓慢，导致将来要大幅度削减碳排放量才能免于触及全球气温上升2摄氏度这个限制目标。


Some suggest that, given the economic slowdown, we should put global warming on the backburner.	考虑到当前经济放缓，有人建议我们应该把全球变暖这个问题放到次要位置。


On the contrary, retrofitting the global economy for climate change would help to restore aggregate demand and growth.	但恰恰相反，为气候变化而改造全球经济可能会有助于恢复总需求和增长。


At the same time, the pace of technological progress and globalization necessitates rapid structural changes in both developed and developing countries alike.	与此同时，科技发展和全球化的步伐迫使发达和发展中国家都要实现快速的结构性变革。


Such changes can be traumatic, and markets often do not handle them well.	这种变革会带来某些创伤和冲击，但市场通常无法很好地做出应对。


Just as the Great Depression arose in part from the difficulties in moving from a rural, agrarian economy to an urban, manufacturing one, so today’s problems arise partly from the need to move from manufacturing to services.	就像大萧条的其中一部分成因源自于把经济从乡村小农经济向城市制造业经济转型的困难一样，引发当前经济问题出现的部分原因也因为经济从制造业向服务业转变的需要。


New firms must be created, and modern financial markets are better at speculation and exploitation than they are at providing funds for new enterprises, especially small and medium-size companies.	我们必须创建新的企业，而现代金融市场相比起为新兴企业提供资金（尤其是中小���业）却更善于投机和剥削。


Moreover, making the transition requires investments in human capital that individuals often cannot afford.	此外，做这样的转变需要对人力资本进行投资，而个人通常难以负担相关支出。


Among the services that people want are health and education, two sectors in which government naturally plays an important role (owing to inherent market imperfections in these sectors and concerns about equity).	在那些人们想获得健康和教育的服务中，政府在其中两个领域起着很重要的作用——这是因为这些市场在这些领域中的固有缺陷并出于社会平等权益的考虑）。


Before the 2008 crisis, there was much talk of global imbalances, and the need for the trade-surplus countries, like Germany and China, to increase their consumption.	在2008年的危机之前，有很多人谈到全球经济不平衡及贸易顺差国（像德国和中国）需要增加其消费。


That issue has not gone away; indeed, Germany’s failure to address its chronic external surplus is part and parcel of the euro crisis.	这个问题并未消失； 确实，德国无法抹去的长期性外部顺差正是欧元危机爆发的重要成因之一。


China’s surplus, as a percentage of GDP, has fallen, but the long-term implications have yet to play out.	中国顺差占GDP比重已经下降，但其长期的影响尚未显现出来。


America’s overall trade deficit will not disappear without an increase in domestic savings and a more fundamental change in global monetary arrangements.	如果不增加国内储蓄，并对全球货币安排实施更加根本性的改革，美国的总体贸易逆差就不会消失。


The former would exacerbate the country’s slowdown, and neither change is in the cards.	然而前者会加剧美国经济的放缓，而且这两种变革似乎都遥遥无期。


As China increases its consumption, it will not necessarily buy more goods from the United States.	随着中国不断提高其消费，它不一定会购买更多来自美国的商品。


In fact, it is more likely to increase consumption of non-traded goods – like health care and education – resulting in profound disturbances to the global supply chain, especially in countries that had been supplying the inputs to China’s manufacturing exporters.	事实上，中国很有可能增加其非贸易商品的消费——比如医疗和教育——这将对全球供应链造成深刻的扰乱性影响，尤其会影响到那些过去一直为中国制造业出口商提供输入产品的国家。


Finally, there is a worldwide crisis in inequality.	最后，还有一个贫富差距方面的全球性危机。


The problem is not only that the top income groups are getting a larger share of the economic pie, but also that those in the middle are not sharing in economic growth, while in many countries poverty is increasing.	问题是当许多国家的贫困率也不断上升之时，高收入人群在经济大饼中占据的份额不断加大，而中等收入群体却未能从经济增长中获益。


In the US, equality of opportunity has been exposed as a myth.	在美国，机会平等已经成为了一个虚构的神话。


While the Great Recession has exacerbated these trends, they were apparent long before its onset.	尽管大萧条加剧了这些趋势，但显然它们早在大萧条之前就已经出现了。


Indeed, I (and others) have argued that growing inequality is one of the reasons for the economic slowdown, and is partly a consequence of the global economy’s deep, ongoing structural changes.	确实，我（以及其他论者）曾经提到，不断加大的贫富差距是经济放缓的原因之一，在某种程度上也是当前全球经济深度结构性变革的后果。


An economic and political system that does not deliver for most citizens is one that is not sustainable in the long run.	一个不为大部分公民服务的政治经济体系是无法长久延续下去的。


Eventually, faith in democracy and the market economy will erode, and the legitimacy of existing institutions and arrangements will be called into question.	最终，对民主和市场经济的信念会遭到侵蚀，而现存制度及安排的合法性将受到质疑。


The good news is that the gap between the emerging and advanced countries has narrowed greatly in the last three decades.	好消息是新兴国家与发达国家之间的差距在过去三十年里已经大大缩小了。


Nonetheless, hundreds of millions of people remain in poverty, and there has been only a little progress in reducing the gap between the least developed countries and the rest.	然而，数亿人仍处于贫困线上，而在缩小最贫困国家与其它国家差距方面则进步不大。


Here, unfair trade agreements – including the persistence of unjustifiable agricultural subsidies, which depress the prices upon which the income of many of the poorest depend – have played a role.	不平等的贸易协议——包括保留减少了许多穷困国家赖以生存的收入的不正当农业补贴——发挥了影响。


The developed countries have not lived up to their promise in Doha in November 2001 to create a pro-development trade regime, or to their pledge at the G-8 summit in Gleneagles in 2005 to provide significantly more assistance to the poorest countries.	发达国家都未能履行它们2001年11月在多哈的承诺——创建一个能促进发展的贸易体制，或是它们2005年在英国格伦伊格尔斯G8集团峰会上的誓言——显著提高对最贫困国家援助。


The market will not, on its own, solve any of these problems.	市场本身并不会解决这些问题。


Global warming is a quintessential “public goods” problem.	全球变暖是一个典型的“公共物品”问题。


To make the structural transitions that the world needs, we need governments to take a more active role – at a time when demands for cutbacks are increasing in Europe and the US.	要做出全世界所需的结构性转变，我们需要政府发挥更积极的作用——尤其是当欧美不断要求削减支出的时候。


As we struggle with today’s crises, we should be asking whether we are responding in ways that exacerbate our long-term problems.	当我们与今天的危机做斗争时应当时刻反省自身解决问题的方式是否会加剧长期问题。


The path marked out by the deficit hawks and austerity advocates both weakens the economy today and undermines future prospects.	由赤字鹰派与紧缩倡导者制定的方案既削弱了今天的经济又破坏了经济的前景。


The irony is that, with insufficient aggregate demand the major source of global weakness today, there is an alternative: invest in our future, in ways that help us to address simultaneously the problems of global warming, global inequality and poverty, and the necessity of structural change.	讽刺地是，尽管全球经济疲软的主要来源是总需求不足，还有另一种选择：投资我们的未来，采取这些方式有助于我们同时解决全球变暖、全球收入差距与贫困以及结构性改革需求的问题。


Global Warming’s Cheap, Effective Solution	解决全球变暖的便宜之计


COPENHAGEN – Global warming will mean that more people die from the heat.	发自哥本哈根——全球变暖对于我们来说，意味着将有更多人将死于高温。


There will be a rise in sea levels, more malaria, starvation, and poverty.	海平面将升高，世界上将有更多人罹患疟疾并受到饥饿与贫困的威胁。


Concern has been great, but humanity has done very little that will actually prevent these outcomes.	而尽管这些问题已经得到了足够的关注，但人类目前为切实阻止上述后果所做的一切都还只是九牛一毛。


Carbon emissions have kept increasing, despite repeated promises of cuts.	尽管人们一再承诺减排，但温室气体的排放量却仍然持续上升，


We all have a stake in ensuring that climate change is stopped.	事实上，确保气候不再肆意变化是和我们每个人都利益攸关的事情。


We turned to climate scientists to inform us about the problem of global warming.	在过去，我们求助于气象学家来了解全球变暖问题。


Now we need to turn to climate economists to enlighten us about the benefits, costs, and possible outcomes from different responses to this challenge.	而如今人们则需要求助于气候经济学家来指点一下那些针对全球变暖的不同应对措施所可能带来的效益，成本以及可能引起的后果。


World leaders are meeting in Copenhagen this December to forge a new pact to tackle global warming.	来自世界各国领导人定于今年12月在哥本哈根会面，以共同缔结一个新的条约来应对全球变暖问题。


Should they continue with plans to make carbon-cutting promises that are unlikely to be fulfilled?	那么政要们是否应该坚持原来的承诺，继续坚持推动不太可能实现的碳排放削减计划？


Should they instead delay reductions for 20 years?	还是将减排计划向后推迟20年？


What could be achieved by planting more trees, cutting methane, or reducing black soot emissions?	如果我们种更多的树、减少沼气或降低煤炭排放能取得什么样的效果？


Is it sensible to focus on a technological solution to warming?	而把解决全球变暖的全部精力都放在一个技术解决方案上又是否明智？


Or should we just adapt to a warmer world?	又或者我们要做的，只是适应一个更暖和的地球就好了？


Much of the current policy debate remains focused on cutting carbon, but there are many ways to go about repairing the global climate.	当今的大多数政策讨论依然将重点放在削减碳排放上，但解决全球气候问题其实是有许多道路可走的。


Our choices will result in different outcomes and different costs.	而我们的不同选择，将会导致不同的成果，付出的成本也会不同。


The optimal combination of solutions will create the biggest impact for the least money.	而解决方案的最佳组合将能在耗费最少资金的同时产生最大的效益。


A groundbreaking paper by economists Eric Bickel and Lee Lane is one of the first – and certainly the most comprehensive – study of the costs and benefits of climate engineering.	如今由经济学家埃里克·比凯尔和李·雷恩所发表的开创性论文则是最早——当然也是最全面的——研究气候工程学成本与收益的成果之一。


Deliberately manipulating the earth’s climate seems like something from science fiction. But as President Barack Obama’s science adviser, John Holdren, has said it has “got to be looked at,” and many prominent scientists agree.	人为操控地球气候原本似乎只是科幻小说的情节，但正如同美国总统奥巴马的首席科学顾问约翰•霍尔德伦所说的，“这想法值得看看”，而他的这一看法也得到了许多著名科学家的赞同。


Bickel and Lane offer compelling evidence that a tiny investment in climate engineering might be able to reduce as much of global warming’s effects as trillions of dollars spent on carbon emission reductions.	比凯尔和雷恩提出了令人信服的证据：只需对气候工程进行微薄的投入也许就能够降低全球变暖效应，而相同效果如果要通过削减碳排放来实现的话，则起码要耗费数万亿美元资金。


Climate engineering has the advantage of speed.	气候工程的有一个优势，那就是见效快。


There is a significant delay between carbon cuts and any temperature drop – even halving global emissions by mid-century would barely be measurable by the end of the century.	因为碳排放削减与气温降低之间的因果关系之间有显著的时间差——即使在本世纪中期成功将全球的排放量减半，但人们可能到等到世纪末都难以衡量其减缓气候变暖的效果如何。


Making green energy cheap and prevalent will also take a long time. Consider that electrification of the global economy is still incomplete after more than a century of effort.	而绿色能源的廉价化和推广也将需要很长时间，要知道人类都努力了一个多世纪了，至今连全球经济电气化都未能实现呢。


Many methods of atmospheric engineering have been proposed.	有关大气工程学的许多方案��已经被提了出来。


Solar radiation management appears to be one of the most hopeful.	而其中最有希望的则是太阳辐射管理装置。


Atmospheric greenhouse gases allow sunlight to pass through but absorb heat and radiate some down to the earth’s surface.	大气中的温室气体在允许阳光穿过的同时吸收热量，并将部分热量辐射至地表。


All else being equal, higher concentrations will warm the planet.	在其他条件相同的情况下，温室气体浓度越高，地球就越暖。


Solar radiation management would bounce a little sunlight back into space.	而太阳辐射管理装置则能够将少量太阳光线反射回宇宙空间。


Reflecting just 1-2% of the total sunlight that strikes the earth could offset as much warming as that caused by doubling preindustrial levels of greenhouse gases.	只要把到达地表的太阳光线总量的1%至2%反射回去，所减少的热量就等于全球工业化之前地球温室气体所产生的总热量的两倍。


When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, about a million tons of sulfur dioxide was pumped into the stratosphere, reacting with water to form a hazy layer that spread around the globe, and – by scattering and absorbing incoming sunlight – cooled the earth’s surface for almost two years.	当皮纳图博火山在1991年喷发的时候，大约100万吨二氧化硫被排放到大气的同温层当中，随后与水汽共同作用，形成了一个雾状的气层并散布到整个地球——这一气层散射和吸收了射进来的太阳光线——致使地球表面温度降低长达两年之久。


We could mimic this effect through stratospheric aerosol insertion – essentially launching material like sulfur dioxide or soot into the stratosphere.	而我们则可以通过在同温层注入悬浮粒气体来模拟这种效应----实质上就是向同温层发射二氧化硫或煤灰等物质。


Another promising approach is marine cloud whitening, which sprays seawater droplets into marine clouds to make them reflect more sunlight.	而另一个可实现的方法是将增加海洋云的白化程度，即把雾状的海水微粒喷射入云中使其能反射更多的阳光。


This augments the natural process, where sea salt from the oceans provides water vapor with the cloud condensation nuclei.	这实际上是加速了一种自然进程——海洋中的盐分可以为水汽凝结成云的进程提供更多的凝结核。


It is remarkable to consider that we could cancel out this century’s global warming with 1,900 unmanned ships spraying seawater mist into the air to thicken clouds.	想想看那种壮观的情景：用1900艘无人驾驶的大船，向空中喷射雾状的海水水汽使得云层加厚，就可以消灭本世纪全球变暖现象。


The total cost would be about $9 billion, and the benefits of preventing the temperature increase would add up to about $20 trillion.	这项工程的总成本大约将是90亿美元，而阻止气温上升所带来的收益则可以达到20兆美元。


That is the equivalent of doing about $2000 worth of good with every dollar spent.	这样做等同于每花1美元，就能得到2000美元的回报。


Many of the risks of climate engineering have been overstated.	而与此同时，气候工程的许多风险则被人们过分夸大了。


Marine cloud whitening would not lead to permanent atmospheric changes, and could be used only when needed.	海洋云的白化效应将不会导致永久的大气变化，且只在需要时才会使用。


Turning seawater into clouds is a natural process.	加上海水转化成云层本来就是一种自然过程。


The biggest challenge is public perception.	而最大的挑战则来自于公众意识。


Many environmental lobbyists oppose even researching climate engineering.	许多环保政治说客甚至反对气候工程学的研究。


This is startling, given the manifold benefits.	鉴于其多方面的益处，这样的反对实在令人费解。


If we care most about avoiding warmer temperatures, it seems that we should be elated that this simple, cost-effective approach shows so much promise.	如果我们主要关注的就是如何避免地球气温升高的话，就应对拥有这个如此简单、高性价比且前景如此清晰的方法感到兴高采烈才对。


Climate engineering could remain a back-up option in case of necessity. Or we could put it on the agenda today.	气候工程可以被当做一个后备选择以备不时之需，或者我们现在就可以立刻将它提上日程。


In either case, there is a commanding case for its serious consideration.	在两种可能性之下，目前的危机形势都需要我们对其进行严肃的考量。


We are on track to being the generation that wasted decades bickering over carbon-emission cuts and failed to stop the harmful effects of warming.	因为我们正在沦落为这么一代人——徒费几十年光景为了削减碳排放而争吵，却并没能阻止全球变暖所带来的有害效应。


That would be a shameful legacy – one that could be avoided by re-thinking climate policy.	而这将是一笔令人蒙羞的遗产——只有重新思考气候政策，才能避免留下如此恶名。


Global Warming’s Dirty Secret	全球变暖的肮脏秘密


Last week, the European Union declared that it had practically saved the planet.	上周欧盟实际上宣布它拯救了这个星球。


With European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso claiming that Europe will lead the way on climate change, the EU has promised to cut CO2 emissions by 20% below 1990-levels by 2020.	随着欧洲委员会主席若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐宣布欧洲将在气候变化方面发挥主导作用，欧盟承诺到2020年时将二氧化碳排放减少20%，达到低于1990年的水平。


Of course, with the EU already having promised an 8% cut by next year in the Kyoto Protocol, this new target seems slightly less ambitious.	当然，鉴于欧盟已经在《京都议定书》中承诺到明年减排8%，所以这个新目标似乎显得有些不够宏大。


Moreover, in continuing the fundamental problems besetting the crippled Kyoto Protocol, the EU has essentially gone and made a worse deal.	此外，由于欧盟继续坚持一些让《京都议定书》不能正常产生实效的根本性问题，它所迈出的新步伐可能更是不智。


Man-made climate change is, of course, real, and constitutes a serious problem.	当然，人为的气候变化是实实在在的，而且也会造成严重的问题。


Yet the current cut-emissions-now-before-it-is-too-late mindset neglects the fact that the world has no sensible short-term solutions.	但目前这种“在为时已晚之前减少排放”的思维方式忽略了这样一个事实：我们没有明智的短期解决方案。


This seems to be why we focus on feel-good approaches like the Kyoto Protocol, whose fundamental problem has always been that it is simultaneously impossibly ambitious, environmentally inconsequential, and inordinately expensive.	这似乎就是我们专注于像《京都议定书》这一类的让自我感觉良好的方式的原因。 它的根本问题从来就是既好高骛远，又不符合环境逻辑，还代价不菲。


It required such big reductions that only few countries could live up to it.	它所要求的减排量是如此之高，以至于只有寥寥数国可以做得到。


Some countries, like the United States and Australia, chose to opt out of its stringent demands; others, like Canada, Japan, and a raft of European states, pay lip service to its requirements but will essentially miss its targets.	有些国家，如美国和澳大利亚选择退出其严苛的要求； 其它国家，如加拿大、日本和众多欧洲国家则光说不练，最终达不到规定的目标。


Yet, even if everyone had participated and continued to stick to Kyoto’s ever more stringent commitments, it would have had virtually no environmental effect.	然而，即便是所有签约国继续履行京都的严苛承诺，最终也不会对环境产生什么影响。


The treaty’s effect on temperature would be immeasurable by mid-century and only postpone warming by five years in 2100.	该条约的执行对温度的影响到本世纪中叶都无法预估，到2100年也只能将变暖推迟五年。


Nonetheless, the cost would have been anything but trivial – an estimated $180 billion per year.	但无论如何，其执行的成本却极为高昂—估计每年约1800亿美金。


With its high-pitched rhetoric, you would be forgiven for believing that the EU has now single-handedly taken the major step towards solving the problem.	由于高谈阔论的蛊惑，你要是相信欧盟已经单方面决定朝着解决这个问题的方向迈出重要一步也是情有可原。


Barroso calls the agreement “historic,” Tony Blair extols its “groundbreaking, bold, ambitious targets,” and German Chancellor Angela Merkel even ventured that the promises “can avoid what could well be a human calamity.”	巴罗佐称此协议为“具有历史意义的”，布莱尔则赞美它是“开创性的、雄心勃勃的目标”，德国总理默克尔甚至敢说这些承诺“能够避免人类灾难的发生。 ”


But nobody sees fit to reveal the agreement’s dirty little secret: it will do next to no good, and again at very high cost.	但没有人愿意揭露该协议肮脏的小秘密：它几乎不会产生什么实效，同时也成本高昂。


According to one well-established and peer-reviewed model, the effect of the EU cutting emissions by 20% will postpone warming in 2100 by just two years, yet the cost will be about $90 billion annually.	根据一个可靠的、经过同行评议的模型，欧盟减排20%的效果在2100年也只能将变暖推迟两年，而其成本却将是每年约900亿美金。


It will be costly, because Europe is a costly place to cut CO2, and it will be inconsequential, because the EU will account for only about 6% of all emissions in the twenty-first century.	实施这项协议代价很高，因为在欧洲减排二氧化碳的成本就很高，而且不合逻辑，因为欧盟的排放量只占21世纪总排放量的6%。


So the new treaty will be an even less efficient use of our resources than the old Kyoto Protocol.	所以新的协约将会是一种比老的《京都议定书》更缺乏实效的资源使用方式。


It is important to learn from the past.	向过去学习是重要的。


We have often been promised dramatic cuts in CO2 emissions far into the future, only to see the promises vanish when we got there.	我们曾经承诺在长远的未来大幅度削减二氧化碳的排放，但在大限将至时却发现这些承诺无法兑现。


In Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the West promised to stabilize emissions, but overshot by 12%.	1992年在里约热内卢，西方承诺要稳定排放，但目标却定高了12%。


In Kyoto, we were promised a 7% reduction in world emissions, but will probably achieve only 0.4%.	在京都，我们承诺全球减排7%，但最终可能只能实现0. 4%。


Of course, those promises were made by politicians who in all likelihood will no longer be in office when the time comes to fulfil them.	当然，这些承诺都是由那些到兑现的时候很可能已不在其位的政客做出的。


We will not be able to solve global warming over the next decades, but only the next half or full century.	我们不能够在未来几十年解决全球变暖的问题，解决它需要在下半个世纪或者整个下世纪。


We need to find a viable, long-term strategy that is smart, equitable, and doesn’t require inordinate sacrifice for trivial benefits.	我们需要寻找到一个可行的、长期的战略，它必须是一种明智、公平而且不要求我们为点滴利益付出过度牺牲的战略。


Fortunately, there is such a strategy: research and development.	所幸这样的战略是有的：研究和开发。


Investing in R&D of non-carbon-emitting energy technologies would leave future generations able to make serious and yet economically feasible and advantageous cuts.	投资于非碳排放技术方面的研发能够让我们的子孙后代有能力进行实质性的并且具有经济可行性的便利减排。


A new global warming treaty should mandate spending 0.05% of GDP on R&D in the future.	一个新的全球变暖公约应该规定在未来将GDP的0. 05%用于研发。


It would be much cheaper, yet do much more good in the long run.	这样做的成本会更低，而且长期来看更有成效。


The EU’s new global warming agreement may help win elections for leaders faced with voters scared by the prospect of climate change.	欧盟的新全球变暖协定可能会有助于领导人们在选举中赢得选票。 选民们在为全球变暖而恐惧。


But it will do virtually no good, at high cost, and – as with many other lofty promises from the EU – it will carry a high probability of failure.	但它终究是毫无实效且成本高昂的，并且—正如欧盟许多其它夸大的承诺一样—它失败的几率非常高。


Let us hope that the rest of the world will keep its cool and propose a better, cheaper, and more effective solution for the future.	我们寄望于世界的其它国家和地区能够保持冷静的头脑，并提出一个更好、更经济也更有效的未来解决方案。


Global Warming’s Misunderstood Victims	被误解的全球变暖受害者


BAMAKO, MALI – Media organizations in wealthy countries regularly send forth reporters to find “victims of global warming.”	发自巴马科，马里——发达国家的媒体经常派人四处挖掘所谓的“全球变暖受害者”。


In dispatches from the Pacific Islands, Bangladesh, or Ethiopia, journalists warn of impending calamity.	这些记者们从太平洋岛国，孟加拉或埃塞俄比亚等地方发来的消息一再向我们警告说灾难正迫在眉睫。


Global warming is the most horrific challenge facing these regions, we are told. Its resolution is vital.	他们声称，全球变暖成为了这些地区所面对的最严峻挑战，急需解决方案。


But seldom do we hear from the local people who are said to be in danger.	然而，我们很少听到那些据说正在受灾的当地人的说法。


These people are not voiceless; we just pay no attention to what they say.	但这些人可不是哑巴，只是我们不去关注而已。


The Copenhagen Consensus Center set out to ask people in global-warming hot spots about their fears and hopes.	哥本哈根共识研究中心则派人去对那些生活在在全球变暖重灾区的人们所拥有的恐惧和希望进行研究。


In Mojo, central Ethiopia, our researchers met Tadese Denkue, a 68-year-old former soldier with no regular income.	在埃塞俄比亚中部城市莫角，我们的研究人员遇见了68岁的泰德西 · 邓库，他当过兵，现在没有稳定的收入。


“I never know when I will be able to buy myself some food,” he said.	在交谈中，他抱怨说“我不知道什么时候我才能养活自己。


“I only know that I suffer a lot.	我只知道我遭了很多罪，这不是什么好活法。


This is not a decent life.”	”


Tadese has never heard of global warming.	泰德西从来就没听说过全球变暖。


When it is explained to him, he is dismissive.	在我们向他解释完了之后，他显得不屑一顾。


He has more immediate concerns: “The first thing I need is food, and then a job.”	的确，他有更多别的操心事需，“当下我最缺的就是吃的，然后就是一份活儿。 ”


Tadese is suffering from his second bout of malaria this year. He has lost count of how many times he has contracted the disease.	现在他正在遭受着疟疾的折磨，这已经是今年的第二回了，他已经记不清楚与这种疾病打了多少回交道。


Our researcher accompanies him to a free clinic. The electricity is not working.	我们的研究员陪同他去了一间免费诊所。


A doctor admits that most patients are sent home without testing or treatment: the clinic has run out of medicine.	但是诊所断了电，那里的一位医生坦率地告诉我们说，这边大部分的病人还没有得到检查或治疗就被送了回家。 但这也是没有办法，诊所的药品早就用光了。


The threat of more malaria has been used to argue for drastic carbon cuts.	疟疾肆虐的威胁曾作为要求大幅度削减碳排放的理由。


Warmer, wetter weather will improve conditions for the malaria parasite.	因为更温暖，潮湿的气候将有利于携带疟疾的蚊虫繁殖。


Most estimates suggest that global warming will put 3% more of the earth’s population at risk of catching malaria by 2100.	大多数评估报告认为到了2100年，全球变暖将使全球面临疟疾威胁的人口数量增加3％。


The most efficient, global carbon cuts – designed to keep temperature increases under two degrees Celsius – would cost $40 trillion a year by 2100, according to research by Richard Tol for the Copenhagen Consensus Center.	而据理查德·图尔为共识研究中心所做的研究，到2100年，全球最有效的碳减排计划——旨在温度上升幅度控制在2摄氏度之内——将每年耗费40万亿美元。


In the best-case scenario, this expenditure would reduce the at-risk population by only 3%.	但即便在最理想的状况下，这笔钱也只能减少3％的受灾人口。


In comparison, spending $3 billion annually on mosquito nets, environmentally safe indoor DDT sprays, and subsidies for effective new combination therapies could halve the total number of those infected within one decade.	相比之下，如果在未来十年内能每年拨出30亿美元来鼓励使用蚊帐和室内无害DDT喷雾，以及资助有效的新型综合疗法，就可以在10年内使疟疾受灾人口减半。


For the money it takes to save one life with carbon cuts, smarter policies could save 78,000 lives.	同样的钱，花在碳减排上只能挽救一条生命，而花在更明智的政策上则能挽救7万8千条生命。


Of course, malaria is far from the only reason we worry about global warming.	当然，我���关注全球变暖并不仅仅因为疟疾。


Twenty kilometers from Mojo, our researcher met Desi Koricho and her eight-month-old son, Michel.	在距离莫角20公里的地方，我们的研究员遇见了德茜·克里科赫和 她8个月大的儿子米歇尔。


Every two weeks, Desi walks four hours to take Michel to the health center.	每两个星期，德茜都要陪她的儿子长途跋涉4小时去健康中心。


After two months of malnutrition treatment, Michel has grown a lot but remains half the normal size of a baby his age.	经过两个月的营养不良治疗之后，米歇尔已经长大了很多，但他的身子仍然只有其同龄婴儿的一半大。


Michel is not Desi’s biological child.	米歇尔并不是德茜的亲生子。


She took him in after his father committed suicide and he was abandoned.	在米歇尔的父亲自杀后，这位母亲就收养了这个被遗弃的孤儿。


Desi likely suffers from undiagnosed malnutrition herself.	但德茜自己也身患病因不明的营养不良疾病。


It is rife here.	实际上，这种病在这个地方很普遍。


There are no roads, electricity, or other infrastructure. Conditions are cramped and unhygienic.	没有道路，没有电，也没有其他什么公共设施，只有拥挤和肮脏。


“We need everything,” Desi says.	德西向我们倾诉“我们什么都缺”。


Solving the malnutrition challenge would be a good start.	而扫除疟疾将是解决该地区问题的一个较好的突破口。


Campaigners across Europe and the US use the threat of starvation to argue for drastic carbon cuts.	欧洲和美国的示威者用饥荒的威胁来作为大规模削减碳排放的理由。


For most regions, weather changes will increase agricultural productivity.	然而事实上，对大部分地区来讲，气候变化将提高农业生产力。


Cruelly, this is not the case for parts of Africa that are already suffering from hunger.	但对已经饱受饥饿折磨的非洲地区来讲，气候变化带来的却是残酷的现实。


But, as with malaria, all of the evidence shows that direct policies are much more effective than carbon cuts.	但是，如同疟疾的例子一样，所有的证据都显示直接的治理政策比削减碳排放要有效得多。


One effective, under-appreciated intervention is providing micro-nutrients to those who lack them.	其中一种非常有效但却总被忽视的方法就是向有需要的人们提供微量营养素。


Providing Vitamin A and zinc to 80% of the 140 million or so undernourished children in the world would require a commitment of just $60 million annually.	每年只需花6000万美元就能向全球1亿4千万营养不良儿童中的80％提供足够的维他命A和锌。


For $286 million, we could get iron and iodine to more than 2.5 billion people.	而只需花2亿8千6百万，我们便能给超过25亿人口提供铁和碘。


The choice is stark: for a few hundred million dollars, we could help almost half of humanity now.	这简直是想都不用想的选择：只用区区的几亿美元，我们就能救助全球过半的人口。


Compare this to the investments to tackle climate change – $40 trillion annually by the end of the century – which would save a hundred times fewer starving people (and in 90 years!).	这样的投资与解决气候变化的成本相比——每年需耗费40万亿美元直到本世纪末——同样一笔钱则可以在未来90年内把那些挣扎于饥饿线上的人们拯救近百次。


For every person saved from malnutrition through climate policies, the same money could have saved half a million people from micronutrient malnutrition through direct policies.	都是那么多钱，花在气候政策上只能够使一个人摆脱营养不良，而用在更直接有效的政策上却能使50多万人口免于遭受微量营养素不足的折磨。


Some argue that the choice between spending money on carbon cuts and on direct policies is unfair.	不过，有人认为对减少碳排放和直接政策两者所耗费的成本作比较是不合理的。


But it is a basic fact that no dollar can be spent twice.	但我们不能忽视一个基本的事实：一笔钱只能用在一个地方。


Rich countries and donors have limited budgets and attention spans.	发达国家和富裕的捐献者的预算和精力都是有限的。


If we spend vast amounts of money on carbon cuts in the mistaken belief that we are stopping malaria and reducing malnutrition, we are less likely to put aside money for the direct policies that would help today.	如果我们被那些错误的信念牵着鼻子走，自以为在对抗疟疾和减少营养不良而把大量的资金花在削减碳排放上，那么当然也拿不出什么钱投放到那些效果立竿见影的直接性政策上了。


Indeed, for every dollar spent on strong climate policies, we will likely do about $0.02 of good for the future.	而事实上，我们扔在强力气候控制政策上的每1个美元，在未来大概只能收到相当于0. 02美元的回报。


If we spent the same dollar on simple policies to help malnutrition or malaria now, we could do $20 or more good – 1000 times better, when all impacts are taken into account.	相反，如果现在我们把同样的钱投到直接有效的政策来治疗营养不良和根除疟疾，那么我们将收获20美元甚至更多。 而即便把所有的影响因素都考虑进来，也比花在气候控制政策上的收益要高1000倍。


On Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania – where the effects of global warming can already be felt – our researcher encountered 28-year-old Rehema Ibrahim.	在位于坦桑尼亚的乞力马扎罗山区——在那里我们可以清晰地感受到全球变暖的影响——研究员遇见了雷赫玛·伊布拉希姆。


Rehema was divorced by her husband and disowned by her family after she failed to produce children.	由于怀不上孩子，她在被丈夫休掉后又被娘家人赶了出来。


To find out if she was the cause of the infertility, she started sleeping with other men.	而为了弄明白究竟不育是不是她自身的原因，雷赫玛又跟许多男人发生了关系。


She is now HIV-positive, an outcast in a terribly poor society.	到如今她成了一个在极度贫穷的社会里身患艾滋病的边缘人。


Rehema has noticed changes in the weather.	但雷赫玛却注意到了气候的变化。


She says that the snow and ice have been melting. She knows what our researcher means by “global warming.”	她说山上的冰雪都在融化，所以她能够理解我们所说的“全球变暖”。


But, she says: “The issues I am experiencing have greater priority.	但她对我们说：“我自己的问题更要紧。


The HIV and the problems it is causing are greater than the [receding] ice.”	我身上的艾滋病毒及其引起的并发症可比冰川萎缩问题严重多了。 ”


Campaigners for carbon-emission reductions regularly highlight the melting snow and ice of Mount Kilimanjaro.	呼吁削减碳排放的示威者通常都会强调乞力马扎罗山上区冰雪的融化。


But we need to pay as much attention to the people living in the mountain’s shadow.	但实际上，更需要我们关注的，其实就是这些生活在山脚下的人们。


Global Warming’s Technology Deficit	站不住脚的反全球变暖技术


COPENHAGEN – Our current approach to solving global warming will not work.	发自哥本哈根——我们如今用以解决全球变暖的方法不堪大用。


It is flawed economically, because carbon taxes will cost a fortune and do little, and it is flawed politically, because negotiations to reduce CO2 emissions will become ever more fraught and divisive.	因为这些方法一点也不经济，比如一系列碳排放税就极端昂贵但却收效甚微，这些手段在政治上也不可行，因为有关降低二氧化碳排放的谈判只会制造出越来越多的分歧。


And even if you disagree on both counts, the current approach is also flawed technologically.	而如果以上两点你都不同意的话，那么请注意，当今的解决方案其实在技术上也是站不住脚的。


Many countries are now setting ambitious carbon-cutting goals ahead of global negotiations in Copenhagen this December to replace the Kyoto Protocol.	许多国家正在大张旗鼓地制定碳减排目标，以期在今年12月于哥本哈根举行的全球谈判会议之前取代原先的《京都议定书》。


Let us imagine that the world ultimately agrees on an ambitious target.	想象一下全世界最终就某个充满野心的目标达成了一致。


Say we decide to reduce CO2 emissions by three-quarters by 2100 while maintaining reasonable growth.	比如说我们决定要在2100年降低3/4的二氧化碳排放量，并同时保持合理的经济增长。


Herein lies the technological problem: to meet this goal, non-carbon-based sources of energy would have to be an astounding 2.5 times greater in 2100 than the level of total global energy consumption was in 2000.	于此就存在着技术问题：为了达成这个目标，2100年时非碳源能源使用量将必须增长至一个惊人的水平：2000年全球总能源消耗量的2. 5倍。


These figures were calculated by economists Chris Green and Isabel Galiana of McGill University.	这些数字是由麦基尔大学经济学家克里斯·格林和伊莎贝尔·加利亚纳计算得出的。


Their research shows that confronting global warming effectively requires nothing short of a technological revolution.	她们的研究显示，如果要有效应对全球变暖，那么必须取得一次科技革命式的革新。


We are not taking this challenge seriously.	但我们却并未严肃地对待这个挑战。


If we continue on our current path, technological development will be nowhere near significant enough to make non-carbon-based energy sources competitive with fossil fuels on price and effectiveness.	如果我们继续走现在的路线，那将不会有足够的科技进步来确保非碳源能源在价格和效能上的竞争力相对于化石燃料占得上风。


In Copenhagen this December, the focus will be on how much carbon to cut, rather than on how to do so.	预计在今年12月的哥本哈根，人们关注的焦点将会是有削减多少碳排量，而不是如何去削减。


Little or no consideration will be given to whether the means of cutting emissions are sufficient to achieve the goals.	而目前的削减碳排放技术是否就足以达到整个减排目标这一问题，也只会得到极少关注，甚至完全被漠视。


Politicians will base their decisions on global warming models that simply assume that technological breakthroughs will happen by themselves.	政治家们的决策基础则是大而化之的全球变暖模型，这个模型假设相关的技术突破会自行产生。


This faith is sadly – and dangerously – misplaced.	这种理念很可悲——并且很危险——因为他们显然将主次颠倒了。


Green and Galiana examine the state of non-carbon-based energy today – nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, etc. – and find that, taken together, alternative energy sources would get us less than halfway toward a path of stable carbon emissions by 2050, and only a tiny fraction of the way toward stabilization by 2100.	格林与加利亚纳检测了现如今我们使用的非碳源能源的使用状态——核能，风能，太阳能以及地热等等——而她们发现就算把这些能源加在一起，也只能为我们迈向2050年稳步减排目标的努力提供不到一半的帮助，对于2100年的目标更是杯水车薪。


We need many, many times more non-carbon-based energy than is currently produced.	我们对非碳源能源的需求要比当今的产量高出许多许多倍。


Yet the needed technology will not be ready in terms of scalability or stability.	此外我们所需的技术就其测量性和稳定性来说都仍然准备不足。


In many cases, there is still a need for the most basic research and development.	在许多研究案例中，我们依然欠缺一些最基础的研究和发展。


We are not even close to getting this revolution started.	我们甚至都未能使这次科技革命得以启动。


Current technology is so inefficient that – to take just one example – if we were serious about wind power, we would have to blanket most countries with wind turbines to generate enough energy for everybody, and we would still have the massive problem of storage: we don’t know what to do when the wind doesn’t blow.	当今技术史是如此的效率低下，仅仅举一个例子，如果我们希望利用风能，那么我们将在大多数国家装满风机来生产满足所有人的能源需求，而我们仍需担心一个大问题，那就是如何储存这些风能：万一没风的话，我们更是束手���策了。


Policymakers should abandon fraught carbon-reduction negotiations, and instead make agreements to invest in research and development to get this technology to the level where it needs to be.	政策制定者们应当抛弃繁杂的碳减排谈判，取而代之的则是达成协定，共同投资研究和改进技术，使之达到一个可供有效利用的水平。


Not only would this have a much greater chance of actually addressing climate change, but it would also have a much greater chance of political success.	这不仅对于我们切实应对气候变化是一个更好的机遇，也将会给政治胜利带来更多胜算。


The biggest emitters of the twenty-first century, including India and China, are unwilling to sign up to tough, costly emission targets.	21世纪最大的排放国，包括印度和中国在内，肯定不情愿签署艰难并且代价昂贵的排放目标。


They would be much more likely to embrace a cheaper, smarter, and more beneficial path of innovation.	但他们可能会更加愿意接受一个更为实惠、明智、并且受益更多的创新之路。


Today’s politicians focus narrowly on how high a carbon tax should be to stop people from using fossil fuels.	但当今的政治家们只是狭隘地把目光放在碳排放税究竟要高到什么水平，才能阻止人们使用化石燃料的命题之上。


That is the wrong question.	这命题显然是错误的。


The market alone is an ineffective way to stimulate research and development into uncertain technology, and a high carbon tax will simply hurt growth if alternatives are not ready.	单靠市场并不足以有效刺激那些对不确定技术的研究和发展，并且如果替代燃料供应不足，征收昂贵的碳排放税只会损伤经济的发展。


In other words, we will all be worse off.	换句话说，我们的境况只会不断恶化。


Green and Galiana propose limiting carbon pricing initially to a low tax (say, $5.00 a ton) to finance energy research and development.	格林和加利亚纳提议，可以在初始时限定一个较低的碳排放税（比如每吨5美元）来资助能源研究和发展。


Over time, they argue, the tax should be allowed to rise slowly to encourage the deployment of effective, affordable technology alternatives.	随着时间推移，她们指出，应该允许该税率缓慢上涨，以此鼓励高效且价格公道的替代技术的推广利用。


Investing about $100 billion annually in non-carbon-based energy research would mean that we could essentially fix climate change on the century scale.	每年投资约1千亿美元用于非碳源能源的研究，将意味着我们能够在本世纪内基本解决气候变化的问题。


Green and Galiana calculate the benefits – from reduced warming and greater prosperity – and conservatively conclude that for every dollar spent this approach would avoid about $11 of climate damage.	格林和加利亚纳计算出了这样做的收益——从降低全球变暖到取得更大的社会繁荣——并且得出保守结论，每花费1美元，这个办法将会避免大约11美元的气候变化损失。


Compare this to other analyses showing that strong and immediate carbon cuts would be expensive, yet achieve as little as $0.02 of avoided climate damage.	把这个结果同其他分析对比，过于剧烈和迅速的碳减排方式将十分昂贵而且回报甚低，1美元投入能够避免的气候损失仅为0. 02美元。


If we continue implementing policies to reduce emissions in the short term without any focus on developing the technology to achieve this, there is only one possible outcome: virtually no climate impact, but a significant dent in global economic growth, with more people in poverty, and the planet in a worse place than it could be.	如果我们继续在追求短期内削减碳排放量的政策上一意孤行，并且不把任何目光放在减排技术的提高之上，那么可能的后果就只有一个：气候变化的冲击还未到来，全球经济的发展速度就已经遭遇了显著衰退，更多人将身陷贫困之中，而我们的地球，只会变成一个比原先更加糟糕的地方。


Global Warnings	全球警告


You know how you are told to give your kids organic food because pesticides will give them cancer?	你一定知道你是怎样被告知要给你的孩子吃有机食品因为杀虫剂会导致他们患上癌症的。


Well, it’s technically true that there is a link between the chemicals and illness, but the risk is miniscule in any well-regulated country.	是的，从技术上来说，在化学品和疾病之间确实存在联系，但是这在任何一个管制良好的国家这样的危险都微乎其微。


There is another threat that you haven’t been told much about.	还有一种威胁是你没有被告知的。


One of the best ways to avoid cancer is to eat lots of fruit and vegetables.	预防癌症的最佳办法之一就是大量食用水果和蔬菜。


Organic items are 10% or 20% more expensive than regular produce, so most of us naturally buy less when we “go organic.”	有机产品比用通常方式生产的产品要昂贵10%到20%，因此我们大多数人在“选用有机产品”时自然数量就会购买得少一些。


If you reduce your child’s intake of fruits and vegetables by just 0.03 grams a day (that’s the equivalent of half a grain of rice) when you opt for more expensive organic produce, the total risk of cancer goes up, not down.	当你选用更为昂贵的有机产品，而把你的孩子每天摄入的水果和蔬菜量减少了0. 03克（那是半粒米的重量），那么患癌症的总体危险是增加了，而不是下降了。


Omit buying just one apple every 20 years because you have gone organic, and your child is worse off.	如果因为你选用有机产品而导致你在20年间哪怕少买了一只苹果，你的孩子夜会遭遇更大的危险。


My intention isn’t to scare people away from organic food.	我并不是想吓唬人们不要选择有机产品。


But we should hear both sides of any story.	但是我们总是应该听听两面之词。


Consider a tale that has made the covers of some of the world’s biggest magazines and newspapers: the plight of the polar bear.	让我们来看一下许多世界上发行量最大的杂志和报纸的封面所讲述的故事：北极熊的困境。


We are told that global warming will wipe out this majestic creature.	我们被告知全球变暖会最终使这种相貌威严的动物走向灭绝。


We are not told, however, that over the past 40 years – while temperatures have risen – the global polar bear population has increased from 5,000 to 25,000.	然而我们并没有被告知，在过去40年间——当气温同样在上升的时候——全球北极熊的数量从5000只增加到了25000只。


Campaigners and the media claim that we should cut our CO2 emissions to save the polar bear.	活动家和媒体呼吁我们应该减少二氧化碳的排放量以拯救北极熊。


Well, then, let’s do the math.	那么，让我们来做一道计算题。


Let’s imagine that every country in the world – including the United States and Australia – were to sign the Kyoto Protocol and cut its CO2 emissions for the rest of this century.	让我们想象一下世界上的每一个国家——包括美国和澳大利亚——都签订了京都协议书，并且将在这个世纪余下的时间减少二氧化碳的排放量。


Looking at the best-studied polar bear population of 1,000 bears, in the West Hudson Bay, how many polar bears would we save in a year?	我们再来看一下被研究得最细致的位于西哈得逊湾的1000只北极熊，我们能够在一年时间里拯救多少只北极熊呢？


Ten?	10只？


Twenty?	20只？


A hundred?	100只？


Actually, we would save less than one-tenth of a polar bear.	事实上，我们能拯救的数目不到十分之一只北极熊。


If we really do care about saving polar bears, we could do something much simpler and more effective: ban hunting them.	如果我们真的想要拯救北极熊，我们应该寻求一条更为简单也更为有效的途径：禁止对它们的捕杀。


Each year, 49 bears are shot in the West Hudson Bay alone.	每一年，仅仅在西哈得逊湾就有45只北极熊被猎杀。


So why don’t we stop killing 49 bears a year before we commit trillions of dollars to do hundreds of times less good?	那么在我们准备花上几十亿美元去做成效还不到几百分之一的事情前，为什么不能先停止一年杀死45只北极熊呢？


From the promotion of organic food to declarations of the polar bear’s imminent demise, the media pelt us with a constant barrage of one-sided warnings.	从推广有机食品到宣称北极熊即将面临灭绝，媒体连续向我们发出了片面的警告。


The list of urgent concerns is topped by global warming, but also includes terrorism, pesticides, and the loss of biodiversity – and seems to have virtually no end.	位于最最急切需要解决的问题之首的是全球变暖，其他还包括恐怖主义、杀虫剂还有生物多样性的丢失，并且看上去急需解决的问题还有很多很多。


All the while, we know of the terrible conditions that still face the majority of the world’s population, with more than a billion poor, two billion without electricity, and three billion without clean drinking water and sanitation.	与此同时，我们清楚世界上很大一部分人口依然生活在非常恶劣的条件下，有超过10亿人生活在贫困之中，20亿人没有电，还有30亿人喝不到干净的水以及没有很好的卫生条件。


Much of my work is to make sense of all these global warnings.	我的大部分工作就是要弄清楚所有这些全球性的警告。


I try to put them in perspective and figure out which ones really should concern us, and when we should act on them.	我试图对它们进行正确的观察，并且弄清楚哪一些是我们真正应该关心以及应该何时去着手解决它们。


Perhaps surprisingly, not everything of concern should be dealt with immediately.	说出来也许会很令人惊讶，并不是每一件我们所担心的事情应该马上进行解决。


If we don’t have a good way to fix a problem, it might be better to focus on something else first.	如果我们缺乏一个很好的途径去解决一个问题，那么也许最好应该先去关注其他问题。


After all, when you don’t know where your next meal is coming from, it’s hard to worry about what global temperatures will be 100 years from now.	不管怎样，当你不知道你的下一顿从哪儿来时，你很难去担心100年后全球的气温将会是多少。


Things have improved immensely in both the developing and developed worlds.	无论是在发展中国家还是发达国家人们的生活条件都获得了很大的改进。


In the last 100 years, scientists have won many of the most important battles against infectious diseases, to the extent that poverty is now the main reason for a lack of treatment.	在过去100年间，科学家们在与传染病的斗争中取得了许多极其重大的胜利，以致现在贫穷成了疾病得不到治疗的主要原因。


Global average life expectancy in 1900 was 30 years; today, it is 68 years.	1900年全球的平均寿命是30岁，而今天是68岁。


Food has become more plentiful and affordable, especially in the developing world, where calorie availability has increased by 40% per person over the past 40 years, while food prices have more than halved.	食品更丰富，价格也更便宜了，尤其是在发展中国家，其人均卡路里的可提供量在过去40年间增加了40%，而食品的价格则下降了一半多。


Consequently, the proportion of hungry in the Third World has dropped from 50% in 1950 to less than 17% today, while worldwide incomes have increased more than three-fold.	其结果是，第三世界中面临饥荒的人口比例从1950年的50%下降到了今天的17%，而全世界的收入则增加了三倍多。


Perhaps most importantly, all of these positive trends are expected to continue.	也许更加重要的是，所有这些积极的趋势还会一直延续下去。


The United Nations estimates that average life expectancy will reach 75 years by the middle of the century, and that the proportion of those going hungry will drop below 4%.	联合国预计到本世纪中叶人均寿命会达到75岁，而面临饥荒的人口会降到不足4%。


By the close of the century, incomes will have increased six-fold in industrialized countries and 12-fold in developing countries, making the average person in the developing world richer in 2100 than the average American or European is today.	到世纪末，工业国家的收入会增加六倍，而发展中国家的收入会增加12倍，到2100年发展中国家的人均收入将会超出今天美国或欧洲的人均收入。


The number of poor will drop from a billion to less than five million.	贫穷人口将会从10亿降到不足5百万。


None of this means we should stop worrying about the future.	所有这些并不意味着我们不需要对未来感到担心。


But it does mean that we can quit panicking and start thinking calmly to ensure that we focus on the right issues.	但是这确实意味着我们可以抛弃恐慌，而开始平静地思考以确保我们能够去关注那些确实值得关注的问题。


Global alarm bells might cause pangs of guilt for wealthy Westerners, but they don’t give us an adequate understanding of what’s going on.	全球的警钟也许会使富有的西方人感到愧疚，但是它们无法使我们对正在发生的事情有确切的认识。


We all need to hear both sides of the story.	我们所有人都应该听听问题两方面的说法。


GMOs and Junk Science	转基因生物和垃圾科学


STANFORD – In today’s media landscape, where unfounded opinions, hype, and rumors are rife, the scientific method – the means by which we determine, based on empirical and measurable evidence, what is true – should serve as a touchstone of reality.	斯坦福—在今天的媒体上，子虚乌有的观点、天花乱坠的宣传和流言层出不穷，科学方法——我们根据实证和可测的证据确定什么是真的手段——应该成为现实性的试金石。


Science enables us to gauge what we think we know and to identify what we do not.	科学让我们能够评估我们认为我们知道的，认识我们所不知道的。


Most important, it discredits false claims made for personal or political reasons – at least it should.	最重要的是，科学质疑出于个人和政治原因而提出的错误主张——至少应该如此。


But scientists occasionally “go rogue,” forsaking the scientific method – often for notoriety or economic gain – to produce propaganda and to sow fear in a public that lacks expertise but is hungry for information.	科学家偶尔也会“流氓化”，放弃科学方法——常常引来臭名或为了追求经济利益——炮制宣传，在缺少专业知识又渴望知情的公众中间散播恐慌。


This abuse of scientific authority is especially widespread in the “organic” and “natural” food industries, which capitalize on people’s fear of synthetic or “unnatural” products.	这一对科学权威性的滥用在“有机”和“自然”食品行业尤其普遍，这些行业利用人们对合成或“非自然”产品的恐慌心理。


A recent example is the Indian-American scientist V.A. Shiva Ayyadurai, who, with Prabhakar Deonikar, published the much-ridiculed paper “Do GMOs Accumulate Formaldehyde and Disrupt Molecular Systems Equilibria?	A. Shiva Ayyadurai），他和德奥尼卡尔（Prabhakar Deonikar）发表了一篇非常可笑的文章《转基因生物会积累甲醛、干扰分子系统均衡吗？


Systems Biology May Provide Answers.”	系统生物学可以提供答案》。


(“GMOs” are “genetically modified organisms,” itself a misleading and often unfairly stigmatized non-category, circumscribing a universe of organisms modified with the most modern and precise techniques of genetic engineering.)	（“转基因生物”本身就是一个误导性的、常常受到莫名指责的非分类（non-category），包括各种用最现代、最精确的遗传工程技术改良的生物。 ）


Although the article supposedly passed the peer-review process, a key component of legitimate science, it appeared in a low-impact “pay-for-play” journal, Agricultural Sciences, which is produced by a “predatory” publisher.	尽管这篇文章必然是经过了同行评议流程的（同行评议是合理科学的一个关键要素），但发表它的是一份影响力很低的“收费刊登”期刊《农业科学》（Agricultural Sciences），有一家“掠夺性”出版商发行。


Within days of publication, anti-biotechnology organizations like the Organic Consumers Association and GMO Inside were reporting on Ayyadurai’s “findings” with frightening headlines – “Formaldehyde in GMO Soy?” and “New Study Shows GMO Soy Accumulates Cancer Causing Chemical Formaldehyde” – accompanied by scary graphics.	这篇文章发表不出几天，反生物技术组织，如有机消费者协会（Organic Consumers Association）和转基因生��内幕（GMO Inside）等，纷纷以耸人听闻的标题报道阿亚杜拉伊的“发现”——《转基因大豆含有甲醛？ 》 、 《新研究表明转基因大豆累积致癌化学物质甲醛》——并配以吓人的图片。


But the problems with Ayyadurai’s paper are legion.	但阿亚杜拉伊的文章可谓漏洞百出。


Its title alone is enough to show that something is amiss.	光看标题就足以表明大有问题。


If you think that GMOs might “accumulate formaldehyde” – a chemical that is probably carcinogenic at high levels but is present in most living cells and found widely in our environment – the obvious response would be to measure its levels in the organisms.	如果你认为转基因生物可能“累积甲醛”——高量甲醛可能致癌，但活性最好的细胞也含有甲醛，并且它可以在环境中广泛找到——那么显而易见的反应应该是测量它在这种生物体中的量。


Ayyadurai, however, chose to make guesses based on modeling via “systems biology.”	但阿亚杜拉伊却选择了基于通过“系统生物学”的建模进行猜测。


“Systems biology” enables only a prediction, not an experimental conclusion.	“系统生物学”只能形成预测，而不能形成实验推论。


Rather than actually testing the levels of any chemicals in plants, Ayyadurai plugged data into a computer algorithm to predict the levels of two chemicals, formaldehyde and glutathione.	阿亚杜拉伊并没有实际检测作物中的任何一种化学物质含量，而是将数据输入一套计算机算法，预测两种化学物质——甲醛和谷胱甘肽的含量。


This is akin to a meteorologist predicting from his models that it will be sunny all day, instead of looking out the window to see whether rain is falling.	这就好比是气象学家根据模型预测全天晴朗，而不屑朝窗外看一眼是否在下雨。


To be sure, as Kevin Folta, the head of the horticultural sciences department at the University of Florida, explained, systems biology can be a useful approach if employed properly.	诚然，佛罗里达大学园艺系主任富尔塔（Kevin Folta）解释说，如果使用得当，系统生物学可以是有用的方法。


As he put it, systems biology “is a way to make predictions based on integrating existing data, and then statistically deriving a likelihood that the predictions may be correct.”	他说，系统生物学“是一个基于整合已有数据产生预测，然后通过统计方法确定预测正确概率的方法。


But, he emphasizes, the predictions are then to be tested, “and the systems approach validated.”	”但是，他强调，预测必须得到检验，“并且系统方法必须可行。 ”


Like all predictive studies based on computer modeling, the validity of the results depends on the integrity of the data and the algorithm.	和所有基于计算机建模的预测研究一样，结果的可靠性取决于数据和算法的完整性。


If the data are cherry-picked to support the modeler’s desired conclusions, or if the algorithm is flawed, the results will be inaccurate.	如果数据经过挑选以支持建模者想要的推论，或者如果算法有缺陷呢，那么结果就不准确。


But it is unclear from Ayyadurai’s article which data were used, and there is no validation of the model.	但从阿亚杜拉伊的文章中难以清楚他使用了什么数据，因此他的模型是无效的。


Folta offers a brilliant send-up of Ayyadurai’s work.	富尔塔巧妙地讽刺了阿亚杜拉伊的工作。


“If you developed a computer program that integrated Internet data to predict the location of Munich, and the program told you it was squarely in the Gulf of Mexico, right off Florida, it does not mean that Munich is in the Gulf of Mexico, right off of Florida.”	“如果你开发了一套计算机程序，用它整合互联网数据来预测慕尼黑的位置，而程序告诉你它大概是在墨西哥湾，紧邻佛罗里达州，这并不意味着慕尼黑就在墨西哥湾，紧邻佛罗里达州。


Instead, it means that you have made a mistake, in your program, assumptions, or input data – all of which are testable.	”相反，这意味着你在你的程序、假设或输入数据中犯了一个错误——所有这些都是可检验的。


To decide not to challenge those data, Folta continues, and instead to “publish a map showing that Munich is squarely in the Gulf of Mexico, opposing all other data and the claims of millions of rather dry Germans, does not mean that you are brilliant.	如果你选择不挑战这些数据，富尔塔继续说，而是“发布一份地图，标明慕尼黑位于墨西哥湾，一反其他数据和德国人的主张，这并不意味着你了不起。


It means you have absolutely no clue, or more likely, have some reason you want a major German metropolis to be a two-hour boat ride from Tampa.”	这意味着你根本不了解情况，或者更有可能你出于某些理由希望德国大都市位于距离坦帕（Tampa）两小时船程的地方。 ”


Folta also has something to say about Ayyadurai’s publisher.	富尔塔对阿亚杜拉伊的发行商也有话要说。


If you print the deceptive map showing the location of Munich, “what does that say about your integrity as a reliable information source?”	如果你印制标明慕尼黑位置的假地图，“那这对你作为可靠信息源的诚信意味着什么？ ”


In the spirit of scientific cooperation, Folta offered to collaborate with Ayyadurai on university-based testing of genetically engineered corn and soy samples (along with appropriate controls), with analysis by an independent lab.	根据科学合作的精神，富尔塔提出与阿亚杜拉伊合作进行基于大学的转基因玉米和大豆样本（以及合适的控制组）检测，并由独立实验室进行分析。


Ayyadurai declined, so Folta will proceed himself.	阿亚杜拉伊拒绝了，因此富尔塔将靠自己进行检测。


The experimental data is forthcoming.	实验数据即将产生。


In the meantime, if you get a hankering for sauerbraten and spaetzle, head for Central Europe, not the Gulf of Mexico.	与此同时，如果你想吃德国醋焖牛肉和德国面疙瘩，你得去中欧而不是墨西哥湾。


Godless Morality	无神的道德


Is religion necessary for morality?	宗教对道德而言是必要的吗？


Many people consider it outrageous, even blasphemous, to deny the divine origin of morality.	许多人认为，否定道德的神源是无法容忍、甚至是亵渎神灵的。


Either some divine being crafted our moral sense, or we picked it up from the teachings of organized religion.	要么某些神灵创造了我们的道德感，要么我们从有组织的宗教教诲那里得到了道德感。


Either way, we need religion to curb nature’s vices.	无论哪种方式，我们都需要宗教来约束天性的邪恶。


Paraphrasing Katherine Hepburn in the movie The African Queen, religion allows us to rise above wicked old Mother Nature, handing us a moral compass.	正如Katherine Hepburn在电影“非洲皇后”中所说的那样，宗教让我们摆脱邪恶的自然天性，给了我们道德指南针。


Yet problems abound for the view that morality comes from God.	但是，道德来自上帝的观点有重重问题。


One problem is that we cannot, without lapsing into tautology, simultaneously say that God is good, and that he gave us our sense of good and bad.	一个问题是，我们无法在不陷入同义反复的情况下同时说上帝是好的，而且上帝给了我们善恶感。


For then we are simply saying that God meets God’s standards.	因为这样，我们就是在说上帝符合上帝的标准。


A second problem is that there are no moral principles that are shared by all religious people, regardless of their specific beliefs, but by no agnostics and atheists.	第二个问题是，除了不可知论者和无神论者认同的道德准则之外，并不存在所有信神的人都认同的道德准则，而无论他们具体信仰。


Indeed, atheists and agnostics do not behave less morally than religious believers, even if their virtuous acts rest on different principles.	事实上，无神论者和不可知论者行为做事的道德水准并不比宗教信仰者要低，即使他们的善举建立在不同原则的基础之上。


Non-believers often have as strong and sound a sense of right and wrong as anyone, and have worked to abolish slavery and contributed to other efforts to alleviate human suffering.	不信仰者经常与任何人一样具有同样强烈和坚实的善恶感，而且还致力于废除奴隶制度并为其他减轻人类痛苦的事业贡献力量。


The opposite is also true.	相反也是一样。


Religion has led people to commit a long litany of horrendous crimes, from God’s command to Moses to slaughter the Midianites – men, women, boys, and non-virginal girls – through the Crusades, the Inquisition, innumerable conflicts between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, and suicide bombers convinced that martyrdom will lead them to paradise.	宗教让人们犯下了大量可怕的罪行。 它们包括上帝的旨意让摩西屠杀米甸人，不论男女老少以及失去贞操的女孩、十字军东征、宗教裁判所、逊尼派和什叶派穆斯林之间无以计数的冲突以及那些相信殉教会让他们升入天堂的人肉炸弹。


The third difficulty for the view that morality is rooted in religion is that some elements of morality seem to be universal, despite sharp doctrinal differences among the world’s major religions.	道德植根于宗教的第三个问题是，尽管世界主要宗教间的教义差异巨大，道德的某些成分看起来是普世的。


In fact, these elements extend even to cultures like China, where religion is less significant than philosophical outlooks like Confucianism.	在中国，与儒家学说等哲学观念相比，宗教要逊色一筹。 实际上，这些成分也甚至延伸到像中国那样的文化之中。


Perhaps a divine creator handed us these universal elements at the moment of creation.	可能是某个神圣的造物主在创世之时就把普世成份交给了我们。


But an alternative explanation, consistent with the facts of biology and geology, is that over millions of years we have evolved a moral faculty that generates intuitions about right and wrong.	然而，另一个符合生物学和地质学事实的替代解释是，在数百万年中，我们已经演进了一种可以产生有关对错的直觉的道德能力。


For the first time, research in the cognitive sciences, building on theoretical arguments emerging from moral philosophy, has made it possible to resolve the ancient dispute about the origin and nature of morality.	认知科学研究第一次在道德哲学引发而来的理论观点基础之上使得解决有关道德起源和性质等古老的争论成为可能。


Consider the following three scenarios.	考虑以下三个情形。


For each, fill in the blank space with “obligatory,” “permissible,” or “forbidden.”	对于每个情形，在空白处填上“有义务”、“可以”或者“禁止”。


1.	1.


A runaway boxcar is about to run over five people walking on the tracks.	一个失控的货车车厢就要撞到正在轨道上行走的五个人了。


A railroad worker is standing next to a switch that can turn the boxcar onto a side track, killing one person, but allowing the five to survive.	一个铁路工人站在道岔转换旁边。 那个道岔转换可以把车厢转到岔道上，撞死一个人，但是可以让五个人活下来。


Flipping the switch is ______.	扳道岔是______。


2.	2.


You pass by a small child drowning in a shallow pond, and you are the only one around.	有一个小孩就要在浅池塘里被淹死，你正好路过而且是唯一在场的人。


If you pick up the child, she will survive and your pants will be ruined.	如果你抱起孩子，她就会活下来，但是你的裤子就损坏了。


Picking up the child is _______.	抱起孩子是______。


3.	3.


Five people have just been rushed into a hospital in critical condition, each requiring an organ to survive.	五个重症病人被急送到医院，每人都需要一个器官才能活命。


There is not enough time to request organs from outside the hospital, but there is a healthy person in the hospital’s waiting room.	没有时间从医院外面取器官，但是医院的等候室里有一个健康的人。


If the surgeon takes this person’s organs, he will die, but the five in critical care will survive.	如果医生拿了这个人的器官，这个人就死，但是五个重症病人就可以活下来。


Taking the healthy person’s organs is _______.	取健康人的器官是______。


If you judged case 1 as permissible, case 2 as obligatory, and case 3 as forbidden, then you are like the 1,500 subjects around the world who responded to these dilemmas on our web-based moral sense test (http://moral.wjh.harvard.edu/).	第二种情况是2，也就是有义务； 第三种情况是3，也就是禁止，那么，你就和全球1500名在我们的道德感网络测试（http://moral.


If morality is God’s word, atheists should judge these cases differently from religious people, and their responses should rely on different justifications.	edu/）回答了这些难题的人一样。 如果道德是上帝之音，无神论者应当同信教的人对这些问题作出不同的判断，而且他们的回答应当依赖于不同的理由。


For example, because atheists supposedly lack a moral compass, they should be guided by pure self-interest and walk by the drowning child.	例如，由于无神论者据称缺乏道德指南，他们应该完全受到纯粹的自私自利的引导而从那个就要淹死的女孩身边走过。


But there were no statistically significant differences between subjects with or without religious backgrounds, with approximately 90% of subjects saying that it is permissible to flip the switch on the boxcar, 97% saying that it is obligatory to rescue the baby, and 97% saying that is forbidden to remove the healthy man’s organs.	但是，具有和不具有宗教背景的人之间并没有明显的统计上的差异，大约90％的人说把车厢换到岔道上是可以的，97％的人说救孩子是有义务的，而且97％的人说取健康人的器官是禁止的。


When asked to justify why some cases are permissible and others forbidden, subjects are either clueless or offer explanations that cannot account for the relevant differences.	当被要求提供理由说有的情况是允许的而其他情况是禁止的，回答的人要么无言以对，要么无法解释相关的差异。


Importantly, those with a religious background are as clueless or incoherent as atheists.	重要的是，那些具有宗教背景的人也同无神论者一样无言以对或者前后不一。


These studies provide empirical support for the idea that, like other psychological faculties of the mind, including language and mathematics, we are endowed with a moral faculty that guides our intuitive judgments of right and wrong.	如同头脑的其他能力，包括语言和数学一样，我们具有道德能力，可以指引我们对对错作出直觉判断。 这些研究为这一观点提供了经验主义的支持。


These intuitions reflect the outcome of millions of years in which our ancestors have lived as social mammals, and are part of our common inheritance.	这些直觉反应都是我们的祖先作为社会哺乳动物生存数以百万年的结果，也是我们共同的继承遗产的一部分。


Our evolved intuitions do not necessarily give us the right or consistent answers to moral dilemmas.	我们演变的直觉并不告诉我们有关道德难题的正确或是一贯的解答。


What was good for our ancestors may not be good today.	对于我们的祖先是好的东西在今天未必是好的。


But insights into the changing moral landscape, in which issues like animal rights, abortion, euthanasia, and international aid have come to the fore, have not come from religion, but from careful reflection on humanity and what we consider a life well lived.	道德状况不断变化，例如，动物权利、堕胎、安乐死以及国际援助已经跃入道德讨论范围。 但是，对这些状况的洞察并非来自宗教，而是来自于对人性的认真思索以及我们所认为的良好的生活。


In this respect, it is important for us to be aware of the universal set of moral intuitions so that we can reflect on them and, if we choose, act contrary to them.	在这一方面，知晓普世的道德直觉以便我们可以对它们进行思考是十分重要的。 而且，如果我们作出选择，也可以反其道而行之。


We can do this without blasphemy, because it is our own nature, not God, that is the source of our morality.	我们可以这样做而并不亵渎神灵，因为，我们的道德源泉是我们的本性，而非上帝。


Going “Soft” on Iran	跟伊朗“来软的”


BRUSSELS – 2010 will be a crucial and uncertain year for the Islamic Republic of Iran – and for its relations with the European Union.	发自布鲁塞尔 —— 无论是对伊朗伊斯兰共和国自身，还是对其与欧盟的关系来说， 2010 年都将是关键而又动荡的一年。


The domestic hostility towards the regime that erupted in the aftermath of the disputed presidential elections last June has not died away, but has become stronger and more determined.	由去年 6 月那场充满争议的总统大选所引爆的国内反政府暴动不仅没有消退的迹象，反而愈演愈烈，坚定不移。


The Ashura riots of last December and the violent suppression of protests during the recent anniversary to mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution were some of the fiercest to date.	其中去年 12 月的阿舒拉节暴动以及最近在伊斯兰共和国建国 31 周年纪念期间对抗议者的暴力镇压是迄今为止最为激烈的对抗。


The regime’s sharp crackdown ahead of the anniversary did not stop thousands from marching in the streets, despite the threat of swift retribution.	政府在建国 31 周年纪念前进行的严厉打击以及迅速严惩的威胁都未能阻止数千民众走上街头。


The likelihood of more arrests, trials, and bloodshed is a concern for many in the international community.	而国际社会则对可能出现更多的拘捕，审判和流血事件感到忧虑。


More ominously, following riots the regime put 16 opposition members on trial for taking part in the demonstrations, with prosecutors indicating that some would be charged with the offense of mohareb , or “making a war against God” – a capital crime.	更为严重的是，在暴动发生之后，政府逮捕并审判了 16 名参加示威游行的反对派人士，检察机关指出这些人将被指控为 “ 真主的敌人 ” （或 “ 向神开战 ” ） —— 这可是一项死罪。


The heavy-handed approach adopted by the regime is causing friction among even its loyalists.	而即便是政府的拥护者也在这种高压政策上也产生了分歧。


A former member of Iran’s parliament, Javad Ettaat, argues that the “government is contravening the principles of Islam by using an iron fist against protesters.”	前伊朗议会议员 Javad Ettaat 就指出 “ 政府重拳打击反对派的行为是违反伊斯兰原则的 ” 。


Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, a cleric and devoted follower of Ayatollah Khomeini, was arrested on January 12 after saying at a Tehran mosque that Iran’s leaders should repent for their actions.	而作为鲁霍拉 · 霍梅尼忠实追随者的神职人员 Mohammad Taghi Khalaji 也因 1 月 12 日在德黑兰的一间清真寺内发表演讲说称伊朗领导人应为其行径忏悔而遭到逮捕。


Moreover, an Iranian diplomat in Oslo, Mohammed Reza Heydari, resigned in protest against the regime’s behavior after the December riots.	不仅如此，身为伊朗派驻奥斯陆的外交人员，穆罕默德·礼扎·埃达里为了抗议政府在 12 月暴动后的报复行为而辞职。


Other Iranian diplomats also are reportedly resigning from their posts and seeking asylum abroad.	据报说其他伊朗外交人员也正纷纷辞职并寻求外国政治庇护。


The European Parliament has been paying close attention to the deteriorating situation in Iran.	欧洲议会一直密切关注伊朗国内不断恶化的形势。


There has been pressure to impose targeted sanctions aimed at impeding the financial operations of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which holds a virtual monopoly over strategic industries such as banking, defense and construction.	而且议会内部一直有压力，要对伊朗革命卫队实施针对性的制裁，以冻结其财务运作 —— 伊朗革命卫队实质上就是一个垄断了诸如银行，国防和建筑等国家战略行业的寡头。


Many European companies have profited from investing in such firms, which means deciding on the terms of sanctions could prove cumbersome.	然而许多欧洲公司却都通过投资于革命卫队旗下的这些企业而获利，这意味着如何制订制裁条款将是个极为缓慢而冗长的问题。


On the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Iranian government’s equivocal position also is a source of growing concern.	而在伊朗的核野心问题上，伊朗政府模棱两可的立场也引发了越来越多的忧虑。


Many European lawmakers are worried by the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran on Europe’s doorstep, and are not convinced by the regime’s claim that it seeks only nuclear energy.	许多欧洲议会议员都对在家门口出现一个核武伊朗的可能性感到忧虑，也无法相信伊朗政府只是寻求发展核能的辩解之词。


It is critical, therefore, that the EU demonstrate its commitment to the Iranian people through actions, rather than words – a complaint that many Iranians level against Western powers – by taking a tougher stance against the regime.	因此，欧盟需要通过行动，而不是语言 —— 许多伊朗人民也如此埋怨西方 —— 向伊朗政府采取强硬立场来向伊朗人民表明自己的决心。


Targeted sanctions aimed at the Revolutionary Guard would be an important step, but so is clearly expressing solidarity with the millions of Iranian men and women who are fighting for a democratic and pluralist society.	对伊朗革命卫队采取针对性制裁将是关键的一步，更是向数百万为民主和多元社会奋战的伊朗男女民众清晰地传达：欧盟将与他们站在同一阵线上。


Europe should stand with Iran's civil society, and the European Parliament has already paid tribute to the courage of all those Iranian men and women who are defending their basic freedoms and democratic principles.	欧洲应该与伊朗市民社会站在一起，欧洲议会已经高度赞扬了伊朗人民为捍卫基本自由和民主原则而奋斗的勇气。


A concrete demonstration of its commitment is the request to make better use of the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights.	而对其决心的切实表达则是要求欧盟能好好地运用那些与民主和人权有关的欧洲机构。


Eighty MEPs, including the Parliament’s former president, Hans-Gert Pöttering, and former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, are urging the Parliament to honor its commitment to human rights by remembering the life of Neda Agha Soltan, the young woman who was killed last June in Tehran while standing up for her rights.	包括前议会主席汉斯 - 格特·波特林及前比利时总理居伊·费尔霍夫施塔特在内的 80 位欧洲议会议员正敦促欧洲议会通过举办缅怀内贾·阿加·索乌坦这位去年 6 月在德黑兰因勇敢站出来捍卫自身权利而被杀害的年轻女性的活动，来兑现其捍卫人权的承诺。


We believe that the European Parliament should commemorate her sacrifice by hanging a poster of her image on the external wall of the Parliament’s premises in Brussels, beside the poster of Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma’s democratic opposition.	我们认为欧洲议会应该把印有索乌坦照片的海报张贴于议会在布鲁塞尔的办公场所的外墙上，贴在缅甸民主反对派领袖昂山素季的海报旁边，来纪念她所做出的牺牲。


Agha Soltan has become the symbol of the desire for freedom of a people that Europe must help.	如今索乌坦业已成为欧洲必须施以援手的那些渴求自由的人民的一个象征。


This simple act could demonstrate the importance of Europe’s soft power, which frightens the Islamic Republic more than the threat of military force by keeping the media spotlight on the regime’s human rights record and emphasizing its growing isolation.	而缅怀索乌坦这一简单的行动将显示出欧洲软实力的重要性，通过吸引媒体关注伊朗政府的人权纪录和强调其在国际上的日益孤立，这一行动将比军事力量更能对伊朗政府造成威胁。


It would also foster stronger ties between Iran’s civil society and the outside world, while setting an example to the international community that the EU is committed to the principles enshrined in its own Charter of Fundamental Rights.	而这一行动也将有助于加强伊朗国内市民社会与外部世界的联系，同时，也为国际社会树立了一个榜样，显示欧盟将致力于兑现其庄严写入《欧盟基本权利宪章》的那些原则。


Europe’s policy for Iran is not regime change, but when human rights and democracy are at stake, we cannot simply close our eyes.	欧洲对伊朗的政策不是实现政权更替，但当人权和民主告急之时，我们可不能无动于衷，袖手旁观。


Going to the Dogs	犬类杂谈


GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA – There are about 70 million dogs living in human homes in the United States. That’s 10 million more dogs than children under the age of 15.	佛罗里达州盖恩斯维尔——美国约有7000万条狗生活在人类家庭中，比15岁以下儿童还多1000万。


The pattern in other Western nations is similar.	其它欧洲国家的情况也大体相似。


Roughly 40% of house dogs are allowed to sleep on their owners’ beds.	约有40%的狗狗可以睡在主人的床上。


How did dogs achieve such an intimate position in our lives?	犬类是如何在我们的生活中获得如此亲密的地位的？


One theory is that, in the thousands of years that dogs have lived with humans, they have become attuned to human ways of thinking.	一种理论认为在与人类共同生活的几千年中，它们已经熟悉了人类的思维方式。


Certainly dogs have a remarkable sensitivity to human behavior.	当然，犬类对于人类行为的敏感性的确令人惊叹。


Dogs are able to follow human pointing gestures to find hidden food, and they can indicate successfully to their owners by their own pointing actions where a hidden toy is located.	犬类可以按照人类手势的指向找到隐藏的食物，它们还能成功地利用指向性动作来暗示主人玩具藏在何处。


Under certain circumstances, dogs understand that a human who cannot see them (because, for example, she is blindfolded) is less likely to respond to begging with a tasty treat than a person whose vision is not obscured.	在某些情况下，犬类知道看不见它们的人（例如因为她的双眼被蒙住）与视力没有受到影响的人相比不太容易对它们想要美味食物的恳求做出反应。


Dogs are also more likely to obey a command to leave something desirable alone if their master stays in the room than if he steps out.	犬类在主人待在屋内的情况下更有可能服从不许动某些让它感兴趣的东西的命令。


And yet attempts to view canine smarts as cut from the same cloth as human intelligence gloss over a lot of the details about how dogs and humans operate.	但将犬类的智慧和人类的智慧等同起来的观点掩盖了犬类和人类行为的许多细节。


Evolution doesn’t ever build the same form of intelligence twice – even though similar problems may lead to similar solutions.	同样形式的智慧在进化中永远不会出现两次——尽管相似的问题可能带来相似的解决方法。


As most owners of puppies know, it takes time and care for a dog to learn the ways of humans.	多数小狗的主人都知道，我们需要付出时间和关爱才能让狗学会人类的行为方式。


We don’t literally raise our hackles when angry, or sniff each other’s backsides when making new friends.	我们生气时不会竖起颈部的毛，在交新朋友的时候也不会去嗅对方的后背。


And dogs don’t gesture with their forepaws or use an elaborate grammatical language when trying to explain things.	而犬类也不会用前爪打手势，或者使用复杂的语言语法试图解释问题。


In our own research, we have found that people remain somewhat mysterious to dogs for the first five months of life, and dogs at our local pound lag considerably behind house dogs when it comes to understanding human beings.	在研究中我们发现犬类在出生后的头五个月感觉人类在某种程度上非常神秘，而我们当地收容所里面的狗狗在理解人类方面大大落后于家养的犬类。


Recent research by Alexandra Horowitz at Barnard College in New York accentuates the “talking past each other” that sometimes goes on between humans and dogs.	纽约巴纳德学院Alexandra Horowitz最近的研究强调了人类和犬类之间有时会“自说自话”。


Horowitz asked owners to forbid their dogs to take a biscuit and then briefly leave the room.	Horowitz要求主人禁止他们的狗狗吃掉饼干，然后很快地离开房间。


When the owners returned after a few moments away, some were told that their dogs had been naughty and eaten the forbidden food.	当主人几分钟后再次进屋时，有人被告知他们的狗狗非常淘气，吃掉了被禁止触碰的食物。


Others were told their dog had been good and left the biscuit alone.	另外一些人被告知他们的狗狗表现良好，没有再去碰那块饼干。


If the dog had misbehaved, the owner was given a moment to berate his pet for its misdeed.	如果狗狗表现不好，Horowitz给主人留出时间严厉批评它们刚才的错误。


The owners were then asked whether their dog looked guilty.	而后研究人员询问主人狗狗是否表现出愧疚的样子。


The twist in this tale is that only half of the owners were correctly informed.	故事的曲折之处在于只有一半的主人被告知了正确的信息。


Half of the time, Horowitz told the owner of a dog that had actually left the biscuit alone that his dog had taken the treat.	在半数情况下，Horowitz告诉实际没有去碰饼干的狗主人他的狗狗把饼干吃掉了。


And half the time the owner of a naughty dog was told that his dog had been good.	还有半数情况下淘气狗狗的主人被告知他的狗狗表现良好。


The point of this deception was that when Horowitz asked each owner whether his dog looked guilty, she could consider whether the owner’s report of “guilty looks” actually had to do with the facts of the matter – whether the dog had taken the forbidden treat – or whether it reflected nothing more than whether the owner had chastised his hound.	这个小小欺骗的目的在于当Horowitz询问每位狗主人他们的狗狗看上去是否愧疚时，她可以藉此了解主人报告的“愧疚之情”与事实真像——狗狗是否吃掉了被禁止触碰的食物——之间究竟有没有关系。 或者这种愧疚不过是主人严惩爱犬所造成的反应。


The results showed very clearly that a dog’s “guilty looks” came about solely because it was being scolded: the look had nothing to do with whether the dog had really committed an offense.	结果表明犬类之所以表现出“愧疚之情”完全是因为它遭到了训斥：那种表情与狗狗是否真的做了错事没有一点关系。


This does not mean that we should not chastise our dogs (or praise them).	这并不是说我们不应该惩罚狗狗（或者表扬他们）。


Nor does it mean that we should not love our dogs – or sometimes be frustrated by them.	这也不是说我们不应该爱我们的狗狗——或者某些时候对它们感到生气。


All it means is that, if we want to live harmoniously with another species in our most intimate places, we must recognize that some of the time our preferred modes of reasoning are not theirs.	这件事的全部含义是，如果我们想要在最亲密的环境中与另外一个物种和平共处，我们必须意识到有些时候它们并不理解我们所习惯的推理方式。


We must try to understand dogs on their own terms, and help them to understand us.	我们必须理解狗狗自己的想法，并帮助它们理解我们自己。


Emerging Markets Should Go for the Gold	是新兴市场国买入黄金的时候了


CAMBRIDGE – Are emerging-market central banks overweight in dollars and underweight in gold?	发自剑桥——新兴市场央行是否存在着过度倚重美元而轻视黄金的问题？


Given a slowing global economy, in which emerging markets are probably very grateful for any reserves they retain, this might seem an ill-timed question.	眼下全球经济放缓，新兴市场国家对自己的所有储备都格外珍惜，这个时候问这些问题似乎不合时宜。


But there is a good case to be made that a shift in emerging markets toward accumulating gold would help the international financial system function more smoothly and benefit everyone.	但新兴市场转而买入黄金会有助于国际金融体系运作更为顺畅，并使各方受益。


Just to be clear, I am not siding with those – usually American far-right crackpots – who favor a return to the gold standard, in which countries fix the value of their currencies in terms of gold.	必须明确的是，我并不和那些赞成回到金本位制（国家将自身货币的价值与黄金挂钩）的人——通常美国的极右翼疯子——站在同一阵线。


After all, the gold standard’s last reign ended disastrously in the 1930s, and there is no reason to believe that a return to it would turn out any differently.	毕竟金本位制度在1930年代走向了灾难性的终结，也没有理由相信回归这一制度会令情况变得有何不同。


No, I am just proposing that emerging markets shift a significant share of the trillions of dollars in foreign-currency reserves that they now hold (China alone has official reserves of $3.3 trillion) into gold.	同时，我不是提倡新兴市场要将其当前持有的数万亿美元外汇储备（仅中国就拥有3. 3万亿美元的官方储备）中的大部分换成黄金。


Even shifting, say, up to 10% of their reserves into gold would not bring them anywhere near the many rich countries that hold 60-70% of their (admittedly smaller) official reserves in gold.	即便是要换，比如将外汇储备的10%换成黄金，也难以让它们向那些许多官方外汇储备（诚然较规模较小）中黄金比例占到60~70%的富裕国家靠拢。


For some time, the rich countries have argued that it is in everyone’s collective interest to demonetize gold.	有时候那些富裕国家会宣称自己是为了所有人的集体利益而废除金本位。


Sure, we hold a lot of gold, these countries say, but that is a vestige of the pre-World War II gold standard, when central banks needed a stockpile.	而针对自身庞大的黄金储备，这些国家会将其称为第二次世界大战前金本位制度的遗存，因为那时的央行需要这些储备。


Indeed, back in 1999, European central banks, seeing no reason to keep holding so much gold, entered a pact to start reducing their stocks in an orderly fashion.	事实上，早在 1999 年，欧洲各国央行都开始觉得没有必须继续保持这么多黄金储备，于是订立了一项协定，开始有序减少手里的黄金储备。


The sales made sense at the time for most of the participating countries: The real backing for their debt was the tax reach of their governments, their high levels of institutional development, and their relative political stability.	当时此举对于大多数参与国来说都是合情合理的：支撑各国负债的真正因素有三：政府的税基，高度发展完善的体制，以及相对稳定的政治局势。


The 1999 pact has been revisited periodically, though since the most recent edition in 2014, most rich countries have taken a long pause, still leaving them with extremely high gold reserves.	各国会对1999年协议进行周期性的修订，但自 2014 年出台最新版本以来，大多数富裕国家的黄金储备销售都被长时间暂缓，令它们依然保有极大量的黄金储备。


Emerging markets have remained buyers of gold, but at a snail’s pace compared to their voracious appetite for US Treasury bonds and other rich-country debt.	新兴市场仍然是黄金的大买家，但相对于它们疯狂吸纳美国和其他富裕国家债券的胃口，前者堪称九牛一毛。


As of March 2016, China held just over 2% of its reserves in gold, and the share for India was 5%. Russia is really the only major emerging market to increase its gold purchases significantly, in no small part due to Western sanctions, with holdings now amounting to almost 15% of reserves.	截至 2016 年 3 ��，中国持有的黄金刚刚超过其总储备的2%，印度为5%，而俄罗斯则是黄金储备量实现大幅增长的唯一主要新兴市场国家（在很大程度上是由于西方制裁），现已达到近 15%的水平。


Emerging markets hold reserves because they do not have the luxury of being able to inflate their way out of a financial crunch or a government debt crisis.	新兴市场国家持有储备是因为它们无法拥有通过通胀摆脱金融危机或政府债务危机的奢侈特权。


Simply put, they live in a world where a large fraction of international debt – and an even larger share of global trade – is still denominated in hard currency.	简而言之，他们处在一个大部分国际债务——以及更大份额的全球贸易——仍然是以硬通货币计价的世界里。


So they hold reserves of such currencies as a backstop against fiscal and financial catastrophe.	所以它们通过储备这类货币来抵御财政和金融灾难。


Yes, in principle, it would be a much better world if emerging markets could somehow pool their resources, perhaps through an International Monetary Fund facility; but the trust required to make such an arrangement work simply is not yet there.	虽然在原则上，如果新兴市场可以以某种方式储备其资源——或许可以通过国际货币基金组织机制，这个世界就会变得更加美好； 但实现这种安排所需的国际信任尚未存在。


Why would the system work better with a larger share of gold reserves?	那为何这一体系在增大黄金储备份额的情况下才能运作得更为顺畅？


The problem with the status quo is that emerging markets as a group are competing for rich-country bonds, which is helping to drive down the interest rates they receive.	眼下的问题是新兴市场国家这个群体在争抢富裕国家债券，这有助于压低它们所承受的利率。


With interest rates stuck near zero, rich-country bond prices cannot drop much more than they already have, while the supply of advanced-country debt is limited by tax capacity and risk tolerance.	随着利率接近于零，富裕国家债券的价格也不会相对现有价格出现过多下跌，同时先进国家的债券的供应也受到其税收能力和风险承受能力的限制。


Gold, despite being in nearly fixed supply, does not have this problem, because there is no limit on its price.	黄金，尽管供应量也几乎固定，则没有这个问题，因为对其价格不存在限制。


Moreover, there is a case to be made that gold is an extremely low-risk asset with average real returns comparable to very short-term debt.	此外，还有例子可以说明黄金是一项平均实际回报率可以极短期债务相媲美的极低风险资产。


And, because gold is a highly liquid asset – a key criterion for a reserve asset – central banks can afford to look past its short-term volatility to longer-run average returns.	同时由于黄金作为资产具有高度流动性——也是衡量储备资产的关键标准——中央银行可以忽略其短期波动去追求长期平均回报。


True, gold does not pay interest, and there are costs associated with storage.	诚然，黄金并不支付利息，还会产生相关存储成本。


But these costs can be managed relatively efficiently by holding gold offshore if necessary (many countries hold gold at the New York Federal Reserve); and, over time, the price can go up.	但如有必要的话可以通过离岸持有黄金（许多国家持有的黄金在纽约联邦储备委员会）来有效管理成本； 同时随着时间推移，价格可能会上涨。


It is for this reason that the system as a whole can never run out of monetary gold.	正是出于这一原因，作为一个整体的系统永远不能没有货币黄金。


I don’t want to create the impression that by shifting into gold, emerging markets would somehow benefit at the expense of advanced economies.	我不想对人造成一种印象，觉得新兴市场国家可以通过转向黄金而以某种方式从发达经济体处夺取利益。


After all, the status quo is that advanced-economy central banks and treasuries hold vastly more gold than emerging markets do, and a systematic shift by emerging markets will bid up its price.	毕竟现状是先进经济体的央行和国库持有的黄金远比新兴市场多得多，同时新兴市场的系统性转换也将抬高黄金价格。


But this is not a systemic problem; and, in fact, a rise in gold prices would close part of the gap between demand and supply for safe assets that has emerged due to the zero lower bound on interest rates.	但这不是一个系统性问题； 事实上，黄金价格的上涨将弥合针对安全资产的一部分供需缺口，而这一缺口正是由于利率的零下限而导致的。


There has never been a compelling reason for emerging markets to buy into the rich-country case for completely demonetizing gold. And there isn’t one now.	过去从来没有令新兴市场国家相信富裕国家会去废止黄金的可靠理由，如今这一理由也不存在。


Golden Rules for the Eurozone	欧元区的金规则


LONDON – The European Monetary Union, as many of its critics maintain, looks a lot like the pre-1913 gold standard, which imposed fixed exchange rates on extremely diverse economies.	伦敦—在很多批评家眼里，欧洲货币联盟看上去极像1913年之前的金本位——在大相径庭的经济体间维系固定汇率。


But is that resemblance as bad as it sounds, or as the euro’s critics insist?	但这样的相似性真的像批评家们所说的那样坏吗？


The appeal of the historic gold standard lay in an institutional capacity to build confidence.	批评历史金本位的出发点在于塑造信心的制度性力量。


A completely fixed exchange rate rules out monetary-policy initiative, and consequently makes adjustment to large external imbalances very difficult to carry out.	完全固定的汇率排除了货币政策的作用，从而导致大规模外部失衡极难消除。


And the burden is unequal, because there is much more pressure on deficit countries to adjust via deflation than on creditor countries to allow higher inflation.	而由此带来的负担并不是均匀的，因为赤字国面临着更大的通过通缩调整的压力，相比之下，债权国不得不承受通胀的压力要小一些。


Pessimists are especially worried by the unpleasant gold-standard analogies and lessons.	悲观派尤其担心金本位类比和教训。


They foresee years and even decades of slow growth in Europe.	他们预测，未来几年甚至几十年欧洲都将经历低增长。