And, indeed, these young people laughed and danced not only in harmony but with a joie de vivre that lit up their faces and filled us all with happiness.	而事实上，这些年轻人的笑容和舞蹈不仅和谐，而且带有一种生存之乐，使他们脸上放出光彩，也使我们所有人充满欢乐。


Listening, it was hard to imagine that they could easily be dead – and would be, if not for this clinic.	听吧，很难想象死亡离他们近在咫尺——而如果没有这座医院的话，他们也许早已离开人世了。


Each of those splendid performers is living with HIV.	这些出色的表演者都是艾滋病病毒（HIV）携带者。


Some arrived at the clinic so ill that they could scarcely walk.	其中一些人来到这家医院的时候已经病得无法走路了。


Others showed few symptoms but, having tested positive, came to be treated.	其他人来的时候虽然没有什么症状，但检查均呈阳性。


They were mothers and fathers, sisters and brothers, children and grandparents.	他们中有的是父母亲，有的是兄弟姐妹，有的是祖孙。


All were alive and healthy for one reason only: the Joint Clinical Research Center in Kampala, and the drugs that it provides them.	他们能够活下来，完全是因为位于坎帕拉的这家联合临床研究中心及其提供的药物。


Uganda was the epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. There the scourge began in earnest; there (as elsewhere in Africa) it exacts its highest toll.	乌干达是艾滋病流行的中心地带，是艾滋病最先爆发的地方，也是（和非洲其他地区一样）艾滋病发病率最高的地方。


Yet Uganda is also a success story.	但乌干达在防治艾滋病方面做的很好。


A decade ago, fewer than 10,000 people were taking the new generation of antiretroviral drugs that suppress the disease and offer the promise of a normal life.	十年前，只有不到10 000人能够获得新一代艾滋病特效药抗逆转录酶病毒药物从而转危为安。


Today, that figure is 200,000, thanks in large measure to generous support from the United States (under its PEPFAR program) and the Global Fund in Geneva.	今天，这一数字达到了200 000，这离不开美国（通过其PEPFAR项目）和日内瓦全球基金的慷慨支持。


We have seen similarly encouraging progress elsewhere.	其他地方也能看见类似的可喜进展。


Botswana, among others, has invested heavily to offer universal treatment, and now is well on its way to ensuring that no baby is born with HIV – a reality in developed countries, but not so in Africa, where 400,000 children are born with the disease each year.	其中，博茨瓦纳投入重金建立了全民医疗，正在朝着消灭艾滋病婴儿的目标大踏步前进——在发达国家，这一目标早已实现，但在非洲，每年仍有400 000婴儿生来就带有艾滋病。


South Africa, with the largest number of people living with HIV, has spent nearly $1 billion over the past year in an ambitious counseling and testing campaign to roll back the epidemic.	HIV携带人口数量最多的南非去年花费了近10亿美元用于艾滋病咨询和检查项目，以此来对其进行控制。


But there is a new and growing danger that these advances might not be sustained.	但一个新的威胁已经出现并在日益严重，使得这些进步有可能无法持续。


Peter Mugyenyi, who runs the Joint Clinical Research Center, told me that part of the problem is the sheer weight of numbers.	联合临床研究中心主任彼得·莫缘依（Peter Mugyenyi）告诉我，问题的一部分是数字的分量太轻。


In Uganda, only about half of those with HIV/AIDS are being treated.	在乌干达，只有一半的艾滋病患者/HIV携带者获得了医治。


Meanwhile, money for treatment is drying up.	同时，医疗资金正在枯竭。


Because of the global recession, some international donors are threatening to cap their financial support.	由于全球衰退，一些国际赞助者警告将对财务支持进行限制。


Countries such as Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, as well as Uganda, are requesting assistance for emergency drug supplies.	马拉维、津巴布韦、肯尼亚和乌干达等国家正在要求紧急药物供给援助。


In Kampala, Dr. Mugyenyi has begun placing new patients on a waiting list.	在坎帕拉，莫缘依医生已经开始将新的求医者纳入候诊名单中。


As many as seven million Africans who should be getting treatment for HIV are not.	多达700万本应获得HIV治疗的非洲人没能获得治疗。


Worldwide, the number is about 10 million.	而全球高达1 000万人。


Compounding the problem: donors have also been shifting their focus from AIDS to other diseases, because there is a sense that more lives can be saved more cheaply.	雪上加霜的是，赞助者现在开始转向其他疾病，因为他们感觉这样可以用更少的钱救更多的人。


At a time when we should be scaling up to meet the AIDS challenge, we are dialing back.	眼下正是一鼓作气击败艾滋病的时候，我们却自己打了退堂鼓。


In our global war on AIDS, the international community is on the verge of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.	在对艾滋病的斗争中，国际社会正在将唾手可得的胜利拱手让出。


Those who rallied to the fight are alarmed. They fear that the impressive gains of the last decade will be lost.	这使得仍在战斗的斗士感到十分不安，担忧过去十年来取得的骄人战绩将付之东流。


“We are sitting on a time bomb,” Dr. Mugyenyi told me.	“我们正坐在定时炸弹上，”莫缘依医生告诉我。


Every day, he is forced into moral choices that no one should have to make.	每天，他都面临着本可避免的良心选择。


How do you choose to treat a young girl but not her little brother?	你怎么忍心治疗一个小女孩而放弃她的弟弟？


How do you turn away a pregnant mother, sitting with her children, crying for help?	怎么忍心放弃和孩子坐在一起、乞求帮助的怀孕母亲？


Surely we can do better.	毫无疑问，我们可以做得更多。


In Kampala, I promised my young friends that I would do everything I could to help.	在坎帕拉，我向我的年轻朋友们承诺将尽我所能提供帮助。


In Washington recently, the United Nations rolled out an action plan that should dramatically accelerate progress on maternal and child health, including HIV.	最近，联合国在华盛顿推出了一项旨在大幅加强母婴健康的行动计划， 其中就包括了艾滋病防治。


At the International AIDS Conference in Vienna, in July, I hope that the international community will rally around UNAIDS’ launch of Treatment 2.0 — the next generation of HIV treatment, which must be more affordable, more effective, and accessible to all.	7月份在维也纳举行的国际艾滋病大会上，我希望国际社会能够支持联合国艾滋病规划署（UNAIDS）的新一代HIV治疗计划——Treatment 2. 0。


As chair of this year’s replenishment of the Global Fund, I urge all donors to see to it that countries such as Uganda get the support they need, so that Dr. Mugyenyi and other front-line soldiers in the fight against AIDS need not make those difficult choices.	作为今年全球基金峰会的主席，我敦促所有赞助人都能着眼于让乌干达这样的国家获得所需的支持，着眼于让莫缘依医生及其他艾滋病战争的一线斗士不再需要做出艰难抉择。


I left Uganda with a snatch of song that still echoes within my heart.	在我离开乌干达的时候，那些歌声仍然在我心头萦绕。


Its inherent truth would be obvious, had you been there to see: 	歌声所表达的感情如此强烈，只要你到了那里，一定可以感受到：


We are still useful.	我们仍是有用之材，


To our countries, to our families.	能为国家和家庭做出贡献。


All we need is a way to live our days,	我们需要活下去，


All we need is to survive in Africa.	在非洲活下去。


Yes, times are hard.	是的，世事艰难。


That is all the more reason to act out of compassion and with generosity.	因此我们更加需要放开胸怀，不吝同情。


Africa’s Diaspora to the Rescue	非洲海外移民拯救非洲


DAKAR – There is something dismally familiar about the tide of news reports concerning Africa’s increased suffering – more poverty, malnutrition, civil strife, and death – in the face of the recent global financial crisis.	达喀尔 —— 关于此次全球金融危机下的非洲充斥着连篇累牍的熟悉而又令人痛心的报导。 非洲人民所受的苦难越来越深重 —— 贫困、营养不良、内乱和死亡的境况愈来愈严酷。


Almost everywhere, the media translates academic conclusions into graphic illustrations of brutality and despair in places such as Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo.	几乎在每一个地方，媒体都在用几内亚和刚果民主共和国等地充满残暴和绝望气息的生动故事对这个学术结论进行着诠释。


But there is another, woefully under-reported, side to the story.	但这个故事还有另外一个侧面，而媒体对这个侧面的报导却严重不足。


African countries that were locked out of international capital markets for most of the past five decades have largely been spared the twin woes of financial turmoil and economic downturn.	过去 50 年来一直被封锁在国际资本市场外的非洲在很大程度上避开了金融动荡和经济衰退的双重困境。


The continent’s economies experienced a slowdown, but not a recession.	非洲大陆的经济增长有所放缓，但却并没有陷入大规模的经济衰退。


Indeed, according to McKinsey & Company, Africa was the third-largest contributor to world economic growth in 2009, after China and India.	事实上，根据麦肯锡公司的统计，非洲是 2009 年世界经济增长的第三大贡献者，非洲的贡献仅次于中国和印度。


Moreover, several African countries have received ratings from credit agencies, which has opened up global financial centers to them.	此外，有几个非洲国家已经得到信用机构评级，这意味着信用机构的全球金融中心已经对这几个非洲国家开放。


In some cases, these ratings have proved equivalent to or higher than those of countries such as Turkey or Argentina.	在某些情况下，非洲国家的评级已经超过了土耳其或阿根廷，或者至少也与之相当。


Stock exchanges are being established across the continent.	非洲大陆到处都建立了证券交易所。


Furthermore, countries such as China, India, and Brazil has provided a platform for increased exports and the inception of a model of cooperation based on trade, investment, and technology transfer, rather than “aid.”	此外，中国、印度和巴西等国已经建立了平台用于扩大出口，并开创了并非基于“援助”、而是基于贸易、投资和技术转让的合作模式。


China-Africa trade alone increased from $10 billion in 2000 to $107 billion in 2008, and billions of dollars are being invested in oil production, mining, transportation, electricity generation and transmission, telecommunications, and other infrastructure.	仅中非贸易额就从 2000 年的 100 亿美元增长到 2008 年的 1070 亿美元，此外还有数十亿美元投向石油开采、采矿、交通运输、发电、电力传输、无线通信和其他基础设施建设。


These developments have combined to improve African countries’ macroeconomic performance dramatically.	这些成就共同改善了非洲国家的宏观经济状况。


Inflation has been halved since the 1990’s, and foreign-exchange reserves have increased 30%.	20 世纪 90 年代通胀降低了一半，而外汇储备则呈现 30% 的增长。


Public finances showed a 2.8%-of-GDP surplus in 2008, compared to a 1.4%-of-GDP deficit in 2000-2005.	公共财政在 2008 年出现了占 GDP2. 8% 的盈余， 2000 － 2005 年公共财政赤字在 GDP 中的占比曾为 1.


Savings rates are between 10% and 20%, and external debt has decreased from 110% of GDP in 2005 to 21% in 2008.	4% 。 储蓄率徘徊在 10 － 20% 之间，而外债则从 2005 年占 GDP 的 110% 下降到 2008 年占 GDP 的 21% 。


Since 2000, sub-Saharan African countries have achieved economic growth of 5-7%.	从 2000 年以来，撒哈拉南部非洲国家已经实现了 5-7% 的经济增长。


Many factors have contributed to this upturn.	多重因素共同促成了这次经济回暖的现状。


Emerging-market demand has pushed up commodity prices.	新兴市场需求推高了商品价格。


Urbanization has given rise to a dynamic informal sector.	城市化造就了一个活跃的非正规部门。


Improved governance, higher food production, increased inter-regional trade, debt cancellation, better use of official development assistance (ODA), and thriving telecommunications and housing markets have helped as well.	施政改善、扩大粮食产量、区域内贸易增长、债务取消、更合理利用官方发展援助（ ODA ）和蓬勃发展的电信和住房市场也有助于实现经济增长。


But transfers from the African diaspora stand out as the most significant contributing factor.	但经济恢复最重要的贡献因素是世界各地非洲人的汇款。


A study commissioned by the Rome-based International Fund for Agricultural Development indicates that more than 30 million individuals living outside their countries of origin contribute more than $40 billion annually in remittances to their families and communities back home.	一项由总部设在罗马的国际农业发展基金会发起的研究显示生活在原籍以外的 3000 多万非洲人每年为国内的家人和社团贡献超过 400 亿美元的汇款。


For sub-Saharan African countries, remittances increased from $3.1 billion in 1995 to $18.5 billion in 2007, according to the World Bank, representing between 9% and 24% of GDP and 80-750% of ODA.	根据世界银行的统计，撒哈拉以南非洲国家的汇款数额从 1995 年的 31 亿美元增长到 2007 年的 185 亿美元，这一数字的 GDP 占比在 9% 到 24% 之间，官方发展援助占比则为 80 － 750% 。


Migrants’ remittance behavior is essentially dictated by the regulatory environment and the quality – in terms of speed, cost, security, and accessibility – of products and services offered by banks, money-transfer companies, micro-finance institutions, and informal operators.	整体监管环境以及银行、汇款公司、小额信贷机构和非���规经营机构的产品和服务质量（包括速度、成本、安全性和易用性）能够对移民的汇款行为造成本质性的影响。


In this respect, there are three different strategies in place in Africa.	在这方面，非洲目前存在三种不同的对策。


The Anglophone strategy focuses on freeing up the remittance market by encouraging competition, relaxing regulatory constraints for non-bank operators, offering financial incentives, encouraging technical and financial innovation, and stimulating collaboration among market players.	英语国家主要通过鼓励竞争、放松对非银行经营者管制、提供财政奖励、鼓励技术及金融创新以及促成市场参与者之间进行合作等方式来放开汇款市场。


This approach, also adopted by Italy, contributes to reducing costs and increasing the overall volume of funds for beneficiaries.	这种方式也被意大利所采用。 它有助于降低成本，增加受益人收到的汇款总额。


The Hispanic approach emphasizes migrants’ involvement in banking by offering a range of banking services in both the country of origin and the host country, products of specific interest to migrants, and low commissions on foreign transfers.	西班牙语国家则通过在移民原籍及其所在国提供各种银行服务、推出与移民利益有特殊关系的产品和手续费低廉的跨国汇款服务来吸引移民参与银行业务。


This approach, widely developed by Morocco and the Portuguese-speaking world, is epitomized by the zero-commission policy initiated by the Spanish bank Santander and its Moroccan counterpart, Attijariwafa Bank.	这种方式被摩洛哥和讲葡萄牙语的国家所广泛采用，其中最具代表性的是由西班牙银行桑坦德集团及其摩洛哥同行 阿提哈利瓦法银行 首创的零手续费汇款服务。


Finally, the Francophone approach relies on two types of monopoly.	最后，两类垄断构成了法语国家对策的基础。


The first is enjoyed by Western Union, which controls up to 90% of the total formal transfer volume within Africa’s 16-member Franc Zone.	其一是西联的垄断地位，该机构控制了非洲法郎区 16 国正式汇款高达 90% 的份额。


Western Union charges fees as high as 25% on transfers to these countries, compared to an average global benchmark of 5%, and has required that Franc-Zone countries sign exclusivity agreements, thereby preventing foreign-exchange bureaux, post offices, and micro-finance institutions from carrying out money transfers.	西联针对这些国家汇款收取高达 25% 的费用，大大高于全球平均标准的 5% ，并要求法郎区国家签署独家服务协议，以借此防止外汇局、邮局和小额信贷机构开展货币汇款业务。


The second monopoly is exercised in the banking sector.	法语国家的另外一重垄断存在于银行机构。


France has a veto within the boards of directors of the Franc Zone’s two central banks, while two French commercial banks, BNP-Paribas and Société Générale, exercise a quasi-monopoly on lending programs, mainly centered on short-term trade financing and the needs of governments, public and private companies, and the elite.	法国在法郎区两大央行董事会均握有否决权，与此同时两大法国商业银行 —— 法国巴黎银行和法国兴业银行 —— 有权对贷款计划行使准垄断决策，要求贷款计划主要满足短期贸易融资和政府、公私企业及上层人士的需求。


All other local banks have adopted the same approach, severely restricting access to financial services for households and entrepreneurs.	当地其他银行也采用同样的策略，这严重限制了家庭和企业获取金融服务。


Despite the increasing importance of remittances from Italy, Spain, and the United States, the largest share in absolute terms still originates from France.	尽管来自意大利、西班牙和美国的汇款占比越来越大，但绝对意义上的最大额度依然来自于法国。


There is thus a real need in the Franc Zone for a financing institution that would convert migrant remittances into productive investments, thereby generating jobs and wealth, and that would broaden access to banking services, mortgages, insurance products, pension plans, and technical assistance.	因此迫切需要在法郎区出现一家能够将移民汇款转化为高效投资的贷款机构，并以此为起点创造就业机会和财富，能够让更多的人享受到银行服务、抵押贷款、保险产品、养老金计划和技术援助。


Official statistics for 2009 are likely to show that migrants’ remittances fell sharply, as the global recession severely eroded job opportunities abroad.	2009 年的官方数据很可能显示移民汇款总额出现大幅度下降，下降的原因是全球经济衰退严重侵蚀了国外的就业机会。


That makes it all the more important that African countries, many of which have laid a strong groundwork for sustainable growth, have a financial system in place that can leverage remittances effectively as the global economy recovers.	在这种情况下，随着全球经济的复苏，非洲国家建立能够有效利用汇款的金融体系就显得至关重要，很多非洲国家都为实现可持续发展奠定了坚实的基础。


Africa’s Dictator-Diplomat	非洲的独裁者外交家


BRUSSELS – The recent death in Brussels of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi finally brings to light what lay behind his mysterious two-month disappearance from public life.	布鲁塞尔—最近，埃塞俄比亚首相泽纳维（Meles Zenawi）在布鲁塞尔逝世，他近两个月以来从公众视野消失之谜终于随之解开。


Ethiopia’s government had strenuously denied rumors of serious ill health caused by liver cancer.	埃塞俄比亚政府一直在否认关于他身患严重肝癌的传闻。


Now that the worst has, indeed, proven true, Ethiopia and all of East Africa will need to learn to live without the stabilizing influence of its great dictator-diplomat.	如今，随着最坏的消息最后得到了证实，埃塞俄比亚和整个东非也因此需要学会如何在没了这位伟大的独裁外交家的稳定影响力的情况下生活。


Meles was certainly both.	泽纳维毫无疑问兼具了双重身份。


Ethiopia has undergone a remarkable transformation under his strongman rule since 1991, when his Tigrayan minority group from the country’s north came to power with the overthrow of the odious Communist Derg led by Mengistu Haile Mariam (still enjoying a comfortable retirement in Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe).	埃塞俄比亚自1991年起便在他的铁腕统治下开始了令人瞩目的转型。 他所属的生活在埃塞俄比亚北部的少数民族提格雷族（Tigray）推翻了马里亚姆（Mengistu Haile Mariam）领导的邪恶的共产主义军政府（马里亚姆如今在穆加贝治下的津巴布韦享受着悠闲的退休生活）。


Initially serving as the president of the first post-Derg government, and then as Ethiopia’s prime minister from 1995 until his death, Meles (his nom de guerre in the revolution) oversaw 7.7% annual GDP growth in recent years.	泽纳维最初是后军政府时代第一届政府的总统，接着又于1995年开始出任埃塞俄比亚总理直至去世。 近几年来，在泽纳维（他的名字Meles是革命时期获得的外号）的领导下，埃塞俄比亚的年GDP增长率高达7.


Strong economic performance is somewhat surprising, given his party’s interventionist policy approach, but Meles showed himself to be a consummate pragmatist in attracting investment – particularly from China – to drive growth.	7%。 强劲的经济表现有些出人意料，因为他所在的政党采取的是干涉主义政策模式，但泽纳维本人在吸引投资（主要来自中国）推动增长方面是个不折不扣的实用主义者。


Meles’s own political provenance as the leader of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front was Marxist-Leninist.	泽纳维以提格雷人民解放阵线（Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front）领导人出身，其政治背景是马克思列宁主义的。 但是，随着冷战的结束，他也抛弃了马列主义教条。


But, when the Cold War ended, so, too, did his dogmatism.	在他的政府治下，婴儿死亡率下降了40%；


To his credit, child mortality was reduced by 40% under his government; Ethiopia’s economy became more diversified, with new industries like car manufacturing, beverages, and floriculture; and major infrastructure projects, including Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, were launched.	埃塞俄比亚经济实现了多样化，出现了汽车制造、餐饮、花卉等新产业； 还建成了一系列主要基础设施工程，包括非洲最大的水电大坝——这些都要记在他的功劳簿上。


Once a basket-case associated in the world’s eyes only with famine and drought, Ethiopia has become one of Africa’s largest economies – and without the benefit of gold or oil.	埃塞俄比亚曾是饥饿和干旱的代名词，但现如今它已成为非洲最大经济体之一——而且是在不靠黄金和石油的情况下取得的。


Perhaps more important than Meles’s domestic achievements was his diplomatic record.	也许比泽纳维的国内成就更重要的是他的外交记录。


He was an indispensable ally of the West in the fight against Islamist terrorism, culminating in Ethiopia’s military operation in neighboring Somalia in 2006.	他是西方必不可少的对抗伊斯兰恐怖主义的盟友，2006年埃塞俄比亚对邻国索马里的军事行动是这一角色的巅峰之作。


More recently, Meles coordinated efforts with Kenya to stage limited strikes against the al-Shabaab militia, which has waged an unrelenting war to turn Somalia into a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy.	最近，泽纳维与肯尼亚一起合作对青年军（al-Shabaab）进行了有限打击。 青年军一直在试图把索马里转变为原教旨伊斯兰神权国家。


At the same time, Meles courted China as both an investor and as a hedge against the West’s criticism of his human-rights record.	与此同时，泽纳维还吸引中国，既作为投资者，也作为西方对其人权纪录批评的挡箭牌。


And yet he controversially but rightly held out a hand of friendship to the breakaway region of Somaliland, before it became fashionable, and went as far as he could short of formal re-recognition of that ray of democratic hope in the Horn of Africa.	此外，他还���受争议但正确地向索马里兰分裂地区伸出了友谊之手，此时这一举动还远未成为时尚。 他还竭尽全力促成正式重启谈判，为非洲之角带来民主的希望之光。


Meles will be sorely missed in Hargeisa, as he planned to run a Chinese-financed gas pipeline through Somaliland territory from the Ogaden to the coast.	泽纳维将会被哈尔格萨（Hargeisa）人民永远铭记，因为他计划在索马里兰领土上建造一条从奥加登（Ogaden）到海边的输气管道，资金由中国提供。


More important, Meles put Addis Ababa on the map as the home of the African Union, and as a capital where Africa’s worst problems could be discussed in a pragmatic manner, unburdened by colonial grudges.	更重要的是，泽纳维让亚的斯亚贝巴成为非洲联盟的总部，该市也成为能够务实讨论非洲最严重问题的非洲之都。


Meles himself became a major diplomatic player, particularly over climate-change policy, and most recently was active in mediating border and natural-resource disputes between Sudan and the newly independent (and oil-rich) South Sudan.	泽纳维本人也在外交舞台上长袖善舞，特别是在气候变化问题上，最近，他还积极地为斡旋苏丹和新独立的（富油的）南苏丹之间边境和自然资源之争奔走。


He will be remembered for accepting the painful secession of Eritrea in 1993, rather than prolong the civil war, and for his efforts to reach an agreement with Egypt over the use of the Blue Nile waters.	他将因在1993年痛苦地接受厄立特里亚独立而不是延长了内战时间而被人铭记，也将因与埃及达成了如何使用青尼罗河河水的协议而被人铭记。


The great stain on Meles’s record will always be his intolerance of dissent.	对持异见者的不容忍是泽纳维的一大污点。


To be sure, his human-rights record was far better than the Derg’s.	平心而论，他的人权纪录比军政府好多了。


For example, he allowed a private press to flourish, and in 2000 he became the first Ethiopian leader to hold multi-party parliamentary elections.	比如，他允许私人出版社的经营，在2000年，他还成为首位主持多党议会选举的埃塞俄比亚领导人。


Moreover, compared to neighboring Eritrea under President Isaias Afewerki or Omar al-Bashir’s Sudan, his regime was by no means the worst offender in the region.	此外，与阿费沃尔基（Isaias Afewerki）总统治下的厄立特里亚和巴希尔的苏丹等邻国相比，他的政权绝对称不上是该地区的头号罪犯。


Nor was there much evidence of personal enrichment or widespread corruption.	埃塞俄比亚也没有多少中饱私囊和腐败横行的证据。


Nevertheless, following a violently contested parliamentary election in 2005, in which more than 30 parties participated, Meles demonstrated open contempt for democratic pluralism and press freedom, jailing several journalists in recent years.	尽管如此，在2005年经历了有30多个政党参与的竞争惨烈的议会选举之后，泽纳维公开对民主多元论和言论自由表示鄙夷，并在最近几年囚禁了多位记者。


At the same time, he imposed increasingly strict central control on his ethnically and linguistically diverse country.	与此同时，对于他统治的在种族和语言上多样化程度极高的国家，他采取了越来越严格的中央控制。


Although nominally governed by “ethnic federalism,” where this threatened secession, as in Oromia or the Ogaden, Meles was quick to ignore the constitutional set-up.	尽管名义上埃塞俄比亚是“民族联邦制”国家，但若出现分裂危险——比如奥罗米亚（Oromia）和奥加登——泽纳维很快就放弃了这一宪法规定。


Although he strengthened religious freedom and peaceful coexistence between Muslims and Christians, the human-rights situation in Ethiopia remained poor.	尽管他加强了宗教自由和穆斯林和基督徒之间的和平共存，但埃塞俄比亚的人权状况依然很差。


For example, groups like Freedom House and Human Rights Watch have documented widespread official repression of the Oromo people.	比如，自由之家和人权观察等组织就报告说奥罗莫族遭受了普遍的官方压迫。


And yet Meles is irreplaceable – unmatched intellectually as an African leader (he dropped out of medical school, but went on to teach himself impeccable English and obtain European university degrees by correspondence), and unmatched politically at home, with no obvious successor groomed to replace him.	但泽纳维是不可替代的——作为非洲领导人，他的智商无与伦比（他曾经学医，辍学后自学英语直到熟练掌握，并通过函授获得了欧洲大学的学位），在国内，他的政治能力也无与伦比，没有显而易见的继任者能够取代他。


In the Horn of Africa, there is no leader of his stature who could ensure the stability and strong governance that the region so desperately needs.	在非洲之角，没有人能像他那样能够确保该地区继续的稳定而强硬的治理。


Hailemariam Desalegn, Meles’s foreign minister, will take over Ethiopia’s government.	泽纳维的外交部长德萨勒恩（Hailenmarian Desalegn）将执掌埃塞俄比亚政府。


But there will be considerable concern in the West about the danger of a power vacuum or struggle in a geopolitically vital but fractious country – and just when neighboring Somalia is supposed to be undergoing a transition to a new parliament and elected government.	但西方很担心出现权力真空或在一个具有极高地缘政治重要性但又极难对付的国家出现斗争，而与此同时相邻的索马里又正好即将经历通向新议会和选举政府的转型。


For his admirers and critics alike, Meles leaves behind a potent political legacy.	毁也好，誉也罢，泽纳维身后留下了强有力的政治遗产。


He will be remembered as an African leader of major historical significance: visionary, despotic, and indispensable.	他将作为具有重大历史影响力的非洲领导人被人铭记：远见卓识、暴虐专横又不可或缺。


Africa’s Economic House Divided	难以维系的非洲经济


DAKAR – The world economic downturn and financial-market tremors have strained budgets across Africa.	达喀尔——世界经济衰退和金融市场震荡已经导致非洲国家预算紧张。


With the exception of Ghana, and a few other states, in 2009 most African countries’ fiscal balances deteriorated.	除加纳和少数几个其他国家之外，2009年绝大多数非洲国家的财政收支状况均呈现恶化态势。


But, thanks to prudent management of public finances during previous periods of robust growth, a significant number of African countries have endured the current crisis in better fiscal shape than during past crises.	但多亏在之前的强劲增长期对公共财政的审慎管理，相当数量的非洲国家在这次危机中的财政状况强过以往的历次危机。


In 2009, aggregate GDP growth in Africa averaged 1.6%, down from about 5.7% during the 2002-2008 period – but growth all the same.	2009年，非洲各国合计平均GDP增长为1. 6%，较之2002－2008年间的5.


Moreover, several African countries continued to implement long-term reforms to improve their business and investment climate, despite the daunting challenges presented by the crisis.	7%有所下降，但仍然呈现增长态势。 此外，尽管面临金融危机的严峻挑战，但一些非洲国家仍继续推进改善商业和投资环境的长期改革措施。


Now that international trade and global industrial production are on the mend, sub-Saharan economies look set for more robust growth, as demand for and prices of oil and other minerals rebound and general economic activity resumes.	当前国际贸易和全球工业生产正逐渐好转，随着石油和其他矿产品需求及价格反弹和一般经济活动恢复，撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家似乎增长会更加强劲。


Of course, numerous downside risks – adverse weather shocks, military conflict, and political turmoil – still can undermine the hard-earned benefits of this social and economic record.	当然，恶劣天气的冲击、军事冲突和政治动荡等多种下行风险仍然可以破坏这一社会经济记录的来之不易的收益。


But it is the dichotomized nature of their economies and finances that represents Africa’s most intractable structural imbalance.	但让非洲最棘手的结构性失衡却是其经济和金融结构的二元化属性。


Frankly, two Africa’s are emerging: a modern economy and a cash-based economy.	坦率地说，有两个非洲正在崛起： 一个是现代经济的非洲，而另一个则是以现金为基础的经济。


Across Africa, almost all governments praise – some honestly, some not – economic modernization as the cornerstone of prosperity and the yardstick by which their effectiveness should be measured. Many boast of the modernity of the financial infrastructure of their economies, which is based on an entire set of legal, regulatory, accounting, credit reporting, and payment and settlement systems.	在非洲国家，无论由衷与否，几乎所有政府都将经济现代化奉为繁荣的基石和自身执政效率的衡量标准而推崇备至。 许多国家夸耀自身金融基础设施的现代化，这种现代化的金融基础设施是以一整套法律、法规、会计、征信、支付和结算系统为基础建立的。


National payment systems operate electronic-based payment products and services.	国家支付系统推出一系列电子支付产品和服务。


A high-value inter-bank funds-transfer system settles transactions in real time, eliminates credit risk between system participants, increases circulation of funds, and enhances monetary-policy implementation.	一套具有极高价值的银行间资金转移系统负责进行实时交易结算、消除系统参与者之间的信用风险、加速资金周转，以及改善货币政策的实施。


Banks are provided with a facility to monitor their positions in real time and hence make cost-effective investment decisions.	这套系统为银行提供实施监管头寸的相关工具，从而辅助它们做出符合成本效益原则的投资决策。


So far, only a few registered financial institutions, primarily offshoots of Western commercial banks, have access to such payment-system facilities.	目前，只有西方商业银行分支机构等少数几家注册金融机构获准使用这套付款系统设施。


Non-banking financial institutions such as foreign exchange bureaus, post offices, and micro-finance lenders are not admitted, even when they are financially sound and sustainable.	外汇局、邮局和小额信贷机构等非银行金融机构即使财务健全、有持续发展能力也没有资格进入。


The effects of banks’ hijacking of national payment systems to service only the modern economy are compounded by the exclusive agreements that banks and money-transfer companies such as Western Union have signed with most African countries.	银行和西联等汇款公司与多数非洲国家签订的独家协议进一步加剧了银行劫持国家支付系统、只为现代经济服务的恶果。


These agreements lock out non-banking entities from the highly lucrative market for migrant remittances from the African diaspora, which remain a key engine of growth.	上述协议将非银行机构排除在利润丰厚的非洲散居移民汇款市场之外，而散居移民汇款一直是非洲经济增长的重要引擎。


Yet rapid urbanization everywhere in Africa has given rise to a dynamic informal sector unconnected to the modern economy.	但非洲各地快速城市化已经催生出一个与现代经济无关的活跃的非正规部门。


Although marginalized by African officials, this cash-based economy is a major contributor to the continent’s productive capacity.	虽然被非洲官员边缘化，但上述以现金为基础的经济仍然是这块大陆生产率的主要贡献者。


It employs more than 90% of the workforce and is home to 75% of the retailers.	这个部门吸纳了超过90%的劳动者和75%的零售业者。


But, despite the pivotal economic role that the informal sector plays, it has no access to conventional bank loans.	但尽管上述非正规部门发挥了如此关键的经济作用，它仍然不具备获得传统银行贷款的资格。


Micro-finance institutions provide the only credit lines open to informal operators.	微型金融机构提供了向非正规经营者们开放的唯一的信贷额度。


The micro-finance business model is based on lending that is guaranteed by the group.	集体担保贷款是小额信贷的惯用商业模式。 这种模式进而转化为减轻信贷风险并鼓励付款纪律的休戚相关的网络和支持机制。


This translates into a solidarity network and a support mechanism that mitigates credit risk and encourages payment discipline. Credit repayment in well-managed micro-finance institutions is around 95%. All studies undertaken in the area have also revealed that women are not only the most active among informal-sector entrepreneurs, but they are also quicker to meet their commitments.	管理状况良好的小额信贷机构其信贷还款率为95%左右。 相关领域进行的所有研究也显示女性不仅是非正规经济部门最活跃的企业家，而且也能更迅速地兑现她们的承诺。


African states must now recognize that modernizing their informal sectors by integrating them into the modern economy can be a major development tool. Yet only a few countries have started moving in that direction.	非洲国家现在必须意识到将非正规部门现代化并纳入现代经济范畴能够成为一种重要的发展工具。 但只有几个国家开始进行这方面的努力。


Nigeria has refrained from signing any exclusive agreements with Western Union and others, and its newly consolidated banking industry is making significant inroads across the region.	尼日利亚已经拒绝与西联和其他企业签订独家协议，这个国家最新完成整合的银行业在区域内的进展非常迅速。


Rwanda, too, has enacted regulations that eliminate exclusive agreements, opening doors for micro-finance institutions to become payment-service providers.	卢旺达也已经通过了废除独家协议的法规，并向小额信贷机构敞开大门，吸纳它们加入支付服务提供商的队伍。


The South African Reserve Bank has created a special platform within its national payment system for micro-finance institutions and non-banks.	而南非储备银行已经在国家支付系统内部为小额信贷及非银行机构建立了一个特别的平台。


Malawi’s national payments system is directly accessible to non-bank participants, including third-party service providers.	马拉维的国家支付系统直接对包括第三方服务提供商在内的非银行参与者开放。


Giving micro-finance institutions access to national and regional payments systems and electronic retail facilities will go a long way toward meeting the requirements of the retail and business sector in terms of banking facilities.	允许小额信贷机构使用国家和地区支付系统及电子零售设施将会在银行信贷领域对满足零售和商业部门的需求产生很大的帮助。


It will also help facilitate access by the poorest to financial services, thus helping to reduce the high proportion of the un-banked population.	这样也有助于底层贫困人口使用金融服务，从而降低不使用银行服务的人口比例。


All of this will invariably spur development and integration of national financial systems and intra-regional trade.	所有这些总能促进国家金融系统和区内贸易的发展和整合。


This will be a welcome development, because a large proportion of intra-regional trade is carried out by informal operators and small and medium enterprises that do not have access to the banking system.	这样的发展趋势令人欣慰，因为很大比例的区域内贸易来自那些无权利用银行系统的非正规经营者及中小企业。


Moreover, economic integration and increased intra-regional trade are the best entry point into global markets for all countries.	此外，经济整合和加强区域贸易是所有国家进军全球市场的最佳切入点。


When it comes to analyzing what ails Africa, it is customary to dwell at length on the continent’s traumatic past.	每每谈到对非洲存在问题的分析，人们总是习惯于不厌其烦地历数这块大陆满是创伤的过去。


But it strains the imagination to link Africa’s colonial-era pains with the willingness of African leaders to spend a fortune to equip their countries with state-of-the-art settlement systems, and then proceed to exclude their citizens from using them.	但是将非洲殖民时代的阵痛与非洲领导人耗费巨资为国家建设最先进的结算系统，而后又禁止本国公民对其加以利用这两者联系在一起却似乎超出了人们的想象力。


Abraham Lincoln once said that a house divided cannot stand.	亚伯拉罕·林肯曾经说过“不顺则不立”。


There is an economic corollary to this: an economic house divided cannot prosper.	这句话在经济领域的推论是： 繁荣只能来自于高效顺畅的经济关系。


Africa’s Hard Black Gold	非洲的硬黑金


LAGOS - Few infrastructure services in the developed world may be as taken for granted as electric power.	拉各斯--在发达国家中，没有什么基础设施服务项目比电力更为普及、人们更为习以为常的了。


To consumers in industrialized countries, uninterrupted power supply is a given.	对于工业化国家的消费者而言，不中断的电力供应是天经地义的。


Not so in much of Africa, which experiences some of the world’s greatest power deficits, and where only two in ten people have access to electricity.	但是这在非洲并非如此。 非洲的几个地方是全世界电力短缺最为严重的，只有百分之二十的人口有电力供应。


According to the International Monetary Fund’s most recent Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa , in 2007 alone, nearly two-thirds of the countries in the region experienced an acute energy crisis marked by frequent and extended electricity outages.	国际货币基金组织最新发表的非洲萨哈拉以南地区经济展望指出，仅仅在2007年，该地区三分之二的国家存在极度能源危机，表现为经常持续断电。


There is no shortage of hydropower plants for electricity generation in Africa.	非洲并不乏水电站发电。


However, many of these plants are unable to keep up with rapid population growth and attendant increases in demand.	但是，许多这些电站无法跟上快速人口增长以及随之而来的需求增加。


Furthermore, they are prone to frequent drought, which reduces their output significantly, leaving many as little more than decorative infrastructure landmarks.	而且，这些电站还要受到频繁的干旱影响。 干旱会大幅度降低电力产量，使得很多电站成为基础设施点缀而已。


Increasingly burgeoning populations in countries like Nigeria and Ghana imply a greater extraction of water resources for power generation.	尼日利亚和加纳等国人口越发膨胀，意味着要加大抽取水资源用于发电。


Rapid expansion of agricultural activity is requiring more and more water all across the continent.	农业活动迅速扩大，对整个非洲大陆的用水提出了更高的需求。


Other resources like fuel oil, diesel, light crude, solar, and gas are also available as means of electricity generation, but their costs are all quite prohibitive.	燃油、煤油、轻原油、太阳能以及天然气等其他资源也可以用于发电，但是它们的成本过高，无法供应。


These factors make a good argument for coal as a cheap alternative source of Africa's power.	这些因素使得人们可以提出使用煤炭作为便宜的非洲电力替代资源。


Coal has historically played a crucial role as a source of energy worldwide, and has several important advantages over other fossil fuels.  First is its relative abundance.	在历史上，煤炭作为全世界的能源来源发挥了关键作用，而且对于其他矿物燃料拥有几个重要的优势。


The current level of proven coal reserves worldwide stands at roughly 850 billion tons.	首先是煤炭储量相对丰富。 目前全世界探明的煤炭储量大约是8500亿吨。


Africa has about 50 billion tons.	非洲有大约500亿吨。


Coal is also much more widely distributed geographically than any other fossil fuel.	煤炭要比其他任何矿物燃料分布更为广泛。


Worldwide energy demand has increased by more than 50% since 1980, and is expected to grow annually by 1.6% between now and 2030.	从1980年以来，全球能源需求增加了50%以上，而且预计将会从现在起到2030年每年增加1. 6%。


More than 70% of this new demand will come from developing countries, with fossil fuels projected to account for about 80% of total energy demand by the end of this period.	这一新需求的70%以上来自发展中国家。 预计，矿物燃料将在这一期间末占全部能源需求的大约80%。


Coal is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel, with annual production increasing by 6.4% since 2004.	煤炭是世界上增长最快的矿物燃料，从2004年以来年产量递增6. 4%。


It is already the dominant source of power generation in some very important energy-consuming nations.	在某些十分重要的能源消费国家中，煤炭已经统领电力来源。


Much of the future increases in coal-fired electricity generation will come from strategically important developing countries like China and India.	中国和印度等战略上重要的发展中国家将会是未来煤炭发电增长的主要国家。


In 2006 alone, China added about 93,000 megawatts of coal- fired electricity generating capacity, and this trend is expected to continue as the country tries to meet its huge energy needs.	仅仅在2006年，中国增加了大约93000百万瓦特的煤炭发电产量，而且这一趋势预计将会随着中国努力满足其巨大的能源需求而继续。


Even in many developed countries, coal still accounts for a large share of power generation.	即使在许多发达国家，煤炭依然占据发电量的很大一部分。


Coal plants currently provide more than half of America’s electricity supply.	美国电力供应的一半以上来自于煤电厂。


Denmark, which houses some of the most efficient coal-fired power plants in the world, equally relies on coal for half of its electricity production.	丹麦拥有一些全世界最为高效的煤电厂，其煤炭发电占据半壁河山。


The same is true for Germany, which is home to some of the most efficient pulverized coal combustion units in Europe.	德国也是一样，它拥有一些欧洲最为高效的粉煤燃烧电厂。


Poland uses coal for 98% of its electricity production, and South Africa uses coal for about 50% of its electricity production.	波兰电力生产的98%使用煤炭，而南非则为大约一半。


Against this picture then, it is hard not to expect developing countries to exploit their abundant coal resources to generate power for their own development, especially given that modern technology can help produce coal cleanly.	因此，在这种背景下，特别是鉴于现代技术可以帮助以清洁的方式产煤，人们很难不料想发展中国家会开发其丰富的煤炭资源来为其自身发展提供电力。


Some argue that gas might be a better alternative to hydro or coal, but for countries that must import much of their gas the benefits of a stable and reliable source of cheap fuel in the form of coal present a very strong counter-argument to the capital costs of a gas plant.	有人认为，天然气或许是水力或者煤炭更好的替代之物。 但是对于必须进口大部分天然气的国家而言，以煤炭作为稳定和可靠的便宜燃料来源益处多多，而天然气电厂需要资本投入，因此煤炭是强有力的反驳。


Unlike prices for coal, which is abundant and dispersed geographically, gas prices are subject to significant volatility, and the long-term trend in the face of fossil fuel depletion is uncertain.	煤炭储量丰富，分布广泛。 与煤炭价格相比，天然气价格波动巨大，而且，在矿物燃料殆尽的情况下，其长期趋势也不明朗。


In contrast, coal prices are more stable, and may remain that way for a long time.	比较而言，煤炭价格更为稳定，也可能持续很长一段时间。


Apart from electric-power generation, coal also has wide application in a number of industries.	除了发电，煤炭还广泛应用于其他几个产业。


It is pivotal in both steel and cement production.	它是钢铁和水泥生产的关键要素。


Moreover, the use of wood by Africa’s growing population is causing increasingly rapid deforestation in many countries.	而且，非洲越来越多的人口使用木材正在许多国家造成森林迅速退化。


There is significant potential domestic demand for coal briquettes to replace wood for cooking and domestic and industrial heating.	煤饼的潜在需求巨大，以取代木材用于做饭、家用和工业取暖。


The demand outlook thus appears favorable for the coal industry, creating significant investment opportunities.	因此，煤炭产业的需求前景颇佳，从而创造巨大的投资机遇。


Clearly, there are environmental drawbacks from the use of coal as an energy resource, and these concerns are far too important to overlook.	很明显，使用煤炭作为一种能源会产生环境倒退，而且人们不能忽视这些巨大的担忧。


The massive reserves notwithstanding, coal is still a finite resource.	尽管储藏巨大，但是煤炭依旧是有限资源。


It must be mined with greater efficiency and with a view to mitigating the environmental impact.	因此，必须更为高效地开采煤炭并且顾及减少环境影响。


Fortunately, much greater attention is paid today to mine safety and the management of the by-products of coal use.	所幸的是，如今人们对煤矿安全以及管理煤炭使用的副产品更为关注。


With acid rain and other public-health hazards linked to coal combustion, more technologies are emerging for reducing harmful emissions from power plants.	酸雨和其他公共健康危害与煤炭燃烧有关，越来越多的技术正在涌现以减少发电厂的有害排放。


Fueled by research, the past few years have witnessed the development of increasingly cleaner and more energy-efficient coal-fired generation plants and the retirement of older technologies, especially in the developed world.	过去几年中，受到研发推动，越发清洁、更为高效的煤电厂建成，而且，特别是在发达国家中旧技术正在淘汰。


Developing countries have lagged behind in this process, but, with the common threat of global warming, there is now growing pressure to adopt conservation policies.	发展中国家在这一进程中已经落后，但是，随着全球变暖的共��威胁，现在采纳保护环境政策的压力越来越大。


Africa's mineral-rich countries must exploit their abundant natural resources.	非洲矿物储量丰富的国家必须利用它们丰富的自然资源。


They must use coal to advance their economic development.	它们必须使用煤炭来推进经济发展。


Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity at a time when African countries must avail themselves of all available resources for poverty reduction.	当前，非洲国家必须利用所有可资利用的资源脱贫，否则就会坐失良机。


Africa’s Immunity	非洲的免疫


ACCRA – The United States suffers rising job losses.	阿克拉—越来越多的美国人丢掉了工作。


Britain nationalizes its banks.	英国对银行实行国有化。


Once high-flying small economies like Ireland, Hungary, and Iceland break down.	爱尔兰，匈牙利，冰岛等一度腾飞的小型经济体垮掉了。


Even robust China and India are experiencing slower growth, curtailed ambitions, and broken dreams.	甚至连生机勃勃的中国和印度也在放慢增长速度，雄心被抑制，美梦正破碎。


Yet, in sub-Saharan Africa, there are few hints of the global financial crisis that is consuming the capitalist world.	但是，在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，却几乎看不到全球金融危机的影响，虽然这场危机正在毁掉资本主义世界。


In fashionable African cities, residential home prices remain stratospheric.	在时髦的非洲城市，住宅房屋的价格依然高不可攀。


A typical Western-style house in Kampala or Accra, for example, now costs an astonishing two to three times the price of a comparable home in, say, Cleveland or other cities in the American heartland.	例如，比起克里夫兰或是美国心脏地带其他城市里类似的房子，坎帕拉和阿克拉城里一栋典型的西式房屋现在的价格要高出一到两倍，这令人惊奇。


While home prices are crashing from Madrid to Dublin and Miami to Los Angeles, African prices remain near or at record-high levels.	从马德里到都柏林，从迈阿密到洛杉矶，房价一路狂跌，而非洲房价却接近或者正处于有史以来的最高水平。


African banks, meanwhile, are rock-solid compared to their debt-heavy counterparts in the US and Europe.	与此同时，比起身负重债的美国和欧洲银行，非洲银行坚如磐石。


While international bankers went bust by making legions of bad loans, African bankers stuck to earning profits the old-fashioned way: paying very little to depositors, and earning a big “spread” by buying guaranteed government debt, which yielded healthy returns.	当国际银行家们因为发放了大批不良贷款而破产的时候，非洲银行家坚持采用老派方法来赚取利润：付给存款人很少的利息，同时通过购买有担保的政府债务来获得大额差价， 这些债务会带来健康稳定的回报。


Even government deficit spending – long the bane of Africa – seems positively puny compared to the massive debts that the US and some European countries face.	和美国以及一些欧洲国家面临的巨额债务相比，甚至连政府的赤字开支—长久以来这一直是非洲的祸害—似乎也完全是微不足道的。


The new Obama administration is proposing spending plans that would create a record US deficit of more than one trillion dollars – and this coming on top of the outgoing Bush administration’s record deficit.	新的奥巴马政府提出了开支计划，其中赤字超过一万亿美元，这会创下新的纪录。 而这还是在刚离任的布什政府已经创下了有史以来的最高赤字之后。


And yet there are good reasons to believe that it is just a matter of time before Africa and its peoples experience the ill effects of the global crisis.	尽管如此，仍然有可靠的原因让我们相信非洲和它的人民将会吞下全球危机的恶果，这只是个时间问题而已。


From Ghana to Kenya, governments are having increased difficulty in raising money for infrastructure projects and selling official debt.	从加纳到肯尼亚，政府为基础设施项目融资和出售政府债务时面临的困难正在增加。


Foreign investment in sub-Saharan Africa, which reached record levels in recent years, is retreating, which is evidence of investor caution, not any underlying lack of optimism about the region.	近年来，外国在撒哈拉以南地区的投资创下新高，但这些投资正在撤出。 这意味着投资者开始谨慎行事，他们不再掩饰对这个地区缺乏信心。


And exports of raw materials to China, India, Europe, and the US – a key factor in Africa’s recent growth surge – may suffer simply because the global slowdown means less consumption everywhere.	向中国，印度，欧洲和美国出口原材料是非洲最近经济飙升的一个关键因素，但这种出口可能受挫，因为全球经济下滑意味着每个地区都会减少消费。


All of these factors suggest that an African financial bust is possible.	所有这些因素都表明非洲可能发生金融破产。


Popular equity investments, such as shares in Safaricom, are already trading at unexpectedly low levels.	流行的股权投资，例如Safaricom里面的股份，已经在以低得出乎意料的水平进行交易了。


If real estate prices were to fall dramatically, a chain reaction could occur, taking down big and small investors alike, and over time causing wide suffering to ordinary Africans.	如果地产价格急剧下降，就会发生连锁反应，大小投资者同样受困，一段时间过后还会给许多普通非洲民众带来痛苦。


Even assuming stability in real estate prices, the global crisis surely will cause a fall in remittances by Africans working good jobs in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, and the Middle East.	即使假设地产价格稳定，全球危机也必然会导致在外工作的非洲人士减少汇款。 这些人工作优渥，呆在欧洲，美国，加拿大，澳大利亚和中东。


Remittances are already believed to be falling, which makes sense: immigrants in rich countries are and will be disproportionately hurt by slowing economic activity.	人们已经相信汇款额会下降，这不难理解：经济活动减缓正在，而且将要，极大伤害迁往富裕国家的移民。


Immigration itself may even slow dramatically, depending on the length and depth of the economic slowdown.	基于经济衰退的长度和深度，甚至移民活动本身也会急剧减少。


Fewer Africans working in rich countries will automatically translate into less money circulating in African countries.	当在富裕国家工作的非洲人数量减少时，这自然会导致在非洲国家里流动的钱也会变少


The decline in remittances, however, cuts both ways.	然而，减少汇款具有正反两面作用。


Remittances have long spurred inflation in many parts of Africa.	长期以来，汇款刺激了非洲很多地方的通货膨胀。


A Ugandan doctor working in Norway, for instance, cares little about the cost of a beer in Kampala.	例如，一位在挪威工作的乌干达医生很少关注坎帕拉一瓶啤酒的价格。


He is also willing – and able – to pay more than a local doctor for services and, of course, a home in Uganda.	和一位当地医生相比，他愿意并且能够为接受服务—当然还有一个在乌干达的家—支付更多的钱。


Fewer remittances flowing into Uganda could mean less economic activity – or simply lower prices.	流入乌干达的汇款减少意味着经济活动减少，或者就是价格降低。


The financial meltdown in the US, which incubated the global crisis, is either coming under control or threatening to mutate into a new, more virulent form that could destroy not only America’s paper economy of trading and brokering, but also its real economy of goods and services.	这场引发全球危机的美国金融崩溃不是被控制下来，就是有可能演变成新一波更致命的崩溃。 新一轮的崩溃将不止会摧毁美国由交易业务和经纪业务构建的虚拟经济（paper economy），还将搞跨货物和服务构成的实体经济。


President Barack Obama, acting as if the latter scenario remains likely, is betting on large-scale government spending to prop up the real economy.	总统巴拉克·奥巴马现在的行事风格就像后一种情况可能发生一样，他打赌大规模的政府开支将支撑起实体经济。


If his administration succeeds, the chances that Africa will remain relatively unscathed will grow.	如果他的政策成功了，就会相应增加非洲得以幸免的机会。


Even if Obama fails, however, Africans should escape the worst of the global crisis, for both good reasons and bad.	不过，即使奥巴马失败了，非洲也应该能逃出全球危机的最重灾区，其原因好坏参半。


The good reasons have to do with African self-reliance and a growing awareness among scholars and policymakers that trade within the region – especially between urban and rural Africa – will ultimately deliver enormous benefits.	好的原因关乎非洲的自力更生，而且学者和决策者们越来越意识到地区内的贸易，尤其是非洲的城乡贸易，最终将会带来巨大的收益。


Another factor working in Africa’s favor is its private companies’ and consumers’ low dependence on borrowed money.	另外一个对非洲有利的因素是这里的私人公司和消费者很少依赖借来的钱。


People tend to pay cash for goods and services, however costly.	人们倾向于用现金来支付货物和服务，不论有多贵。


In the US, loans for cars and homes – loans that now aren’t being paid back – are the major factor behind the financial crisis.	在美国，买房买车的贷款（那些现在收不回来的贷款）是金融危机后面的主要���素。


In Africa, very few people borrow money for such purchases.	而非洲只有极少数人借钱买这些东西。


Africa’s cash-based economy has in the past constrained development.	过去，非洲以现金为基础的经济阻碍了发展。


After all, by allowing people to spend more than they have, borrowed money can fuel growth.	毕竟，通过允许人们超前消费，借来的钱可以为经济助燃。


But today, Africa’s pay-as-you-go practices are a powerful defense against financial contagion.	但今天，非洲“现收现付”的习俗成了抵御金融危机蔓延的有力保障。


Another way of looking at Africa’s paradoxical economic position is to admit that the region’s historical marginalization within the international financial system – so costly in times of global plenty – is proving to be an unexpected benefit when the wealthiest of the world are sick unto death.	观察非洲自相矛盾的经济状况时，另一种方法是承认该地区历史上一直被全球金融体制边缘化，结果在世界繁荣的时候损失惨重。 然而在全球最富裕的国家病入膏肓的时候，这一点反而成了是一个出人意料的益处。


Ensuring Africa’s Continued Rise	确保非洲继续崛起


LAGOS – Africa’s rise is in danger of faltering.	拉各斯—非洲的崛起有夭折的危险。


After years during which the continent’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 5%, global uncertainty, depressed commodity prices, and jittery external conditions are threatening to undermine decades of much-needed progress.	在经历了多年年均5%的经济增长后，全球不确定性、大宗商品价格低迷以及不利的外部条件有可能破坏几十年来急需的进步。


Ensuring the wealth and wellbeing of the continent’s residents will not be easy; but there is much that policymakers can do to put Africa back on an upward trajectory.	确保非洲居民的财富和福祉绝非易事； 但决策者可以想很多办法帮助非洲重回向上轨迹。


First and foremost, policymakers must secure the financing needed to pursue sustainable development in an uncertain global environment.	首先也是最重要的是，决策者必须确保所需要的资金在不确定的全球环境中追求可持续发展。


The World Bank estimates that Africa will require at least $93 billion a year to fund its infrastructure needs alone.	世界银行估计，光是基础设施资金，非洲每年就至少需要930亿美元。


Climate-friendly, sustainable infrastructure will cost even more.	气候友好型可持续基础设施的成本更高。


And yet, as long as global growth remains weak, Africans cannot count on developed countries to fully honor their commitments to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals.	但是，只要全球增长持续低迷，非洲人就无法指望发达国家充分兑现它们帮助实现可持续发展目标的承诺。


Africa must rapidly develop its own resources, beginning by nearly doubling tax revenues.	非洲必须迅速开发其自身的资源，第一步是将税收收入提高近一倍。


Across Sub-Saharan Africa, tax revenues account for less than one-fifth of GDP, compared to more than one-third in OECD countries.	在整个撒哈拉以南非洲，税收收入还不到GDP的五分之一，而经合组织国家这一比例高达三分之一以上。


This means there is plenty of room for improvement.	这意味着还有巨大的改善空间。


From 1990 to 2004, for example, Ghana reformed its tax system and raised revenues from 11% to 22% of GDP.	比如，从1999年到2004年，加纳改革了其税收制度，税收收入占GDP之比从11%增加到22% 。


Admittedly, such progress is difficult; in Nigeria, we saw an opportunity in raising non-oil tax revenues, but struggled to seize it.	诚然，取得这样的进步是困难的； 在尼日利亚，我们也看到了提高非石油税收收入的机会，但难以抓住它。


Another source of domestic resources is the roughly $380 billion in pension assets held by just ten African countries.	另一个国内资源是十个非洲国家所持有的大约3,800亿美元退休金资产。


Policymakers should be leveraging these considerable sums.	决策者应该利用这一数量可观的资金。


At the same time, African countries will have to find a way to diversify their economies.	与此同时，非洲国家必须找到办法实现经济多样化。


Diversification requires investment in the future, in the form of education and well-developed infrastructure, including telecommunications, power, roads, rail, and water.	多样化需要为未来投资，如教育和发达的基础设施（通讯、电力、公路、铁路、水道等）。


There are plenty of models to follow: Dubai, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea are all admired by Africans as economies that managed to transform themselves.	可以效仿的榜样很多：迪拜、新加坡、泰国、马来西亚、墨西哥、印度尼西亚和韩国都是非洲人民所景仰的成功实现转型的经济体。


Dubai, for example, set out more than three decades ago to prepare for a future without oil.	比如，迪拜三十多年前就开始为没有石油的未来做准备。


The government implemented a step-by-step transformation of the country into a service economy, putting in place the infrastructure and incentives necessary to build up financial services, tourism, medical services, real estate, media, arts, and culture.	迪拜政府实施了逐步的转型，将经济转变为服务经济，为金融服务、旅游、医疗服务、房地产、传媒、艺术和文化等行业提供必要的基础设施和激励。


South Korea and Singapore, which had few natural resources on which to rely, are no less inspiring.	韩国和新加坡都没有天然资源可以依赖，但它们的例子也十分鼓舞人心。


The secret behind these countries’ success is relentlessly focused leaders, whether entrenched but benign dictators or democratically elected politicians with a shared vision of a broad-based economy.	这些国家成功的背后是坚持不懈的领导人，不管是长期执政但温和的独裁者，还是对宽基础经济有着共同愿景的民选政客。


Sub-Saharan Africa has paths for diversified growth that many of the trailblazers did not: value-added agriculture and agro industry, the processing of mineral resources, petrochemical complexes, manufacturing of durable and consumer goods, tourism and entertainment, and an emerging information-technology sector.	撒哈拉以南非洲拥有许多先行者所不具备的多样化增长路径：增加值农业和农用工业、矿产资源、石化、持久品和消费品制造、旅游和娱乐，以及新兴的信息技术业。


As the necessary measures for diversification are implemented, policymakers must ensure that the economic growth they are pursuing creates jobs.	在实施必要的多样化措施的同时，决策者必须确保他们所追求的经济增长能创造就业。


Sadly, this has not always been the case.	悲哀的是，事实未必如此。


Much of the recent growth has benefited only a few, leaving many behind – most notably young people and women.	近期的大量增长只是肥了一小撮人，而将大部分人排斥在外——特别是年轻人和女性。


From 2006 to 2013, inequality rose in many of the continent’s most important economies, including South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, and Rwanda.	从2006年到2013年，非洲的许多最重要经济体，包括南非、尼日利亚、加纳、坦桑尼亚和卢旺达等，不平等性都有所上升。


These were challenges that we were starting to address in Nigeria when I was finance minister.	我担任尼日利亚财政部长时，已经开始解决一些挑战。


We knew that we needed not just to secure growth, but also to improve the quality of that growth.	我们知道我们不但需要确保增长，还需要改善增长的质量。


To that end, policymakers must ensure that growth is channeled into sectors that create jobs, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services.	在这方面，决策者必须确保增长被引导到创造就业的部门，如农业、制造业和服务业。


They may also have to redistribute income and strengthen social safety nets to protect better those at the bottom of the ladder.	他们还必须重新分配收入和强化社会安全网，以更好地保护底层人群。


Matching skills to job opportunities will be crucial.	让技能与就业机会相匹配至关重要。


Some 70% of Africa’s population is under 30, and the continent is home to half the world’s primary-school-age children who have been deprived of the opportunity to study.	大约70%的非洲人口还不到30岁，非洲辍学小学适龄儿童占世界的一半。


Offering Africa’s children basic reading, writing, and technology skills, as well as vocational, technical, and entrepreneurial training, must be a top priority.	让非洲儿童拥有基本的阅读、写作和技术技能并获得职业、技术和创业培训必须成为重中之重。


Weak health-care systems must also be strengthened in order to tackle the endemic diseases that sap productivity, such as malaria, as well as improving preparedness for outbreaks of deadly epidemics.	拙劣的医疗体系也必须强化，以解决制约生产力的地方性疾病（如疟疾）以及改善对致死传染病爆发的预防工作。


The stakes are high.	兹事体大。


The World Bank estimates the Ebola outbreak shrank the economies of Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia by 16%.	世界银行估计，埃博拉疫情的爆发让塞拉利昂、几内亚和利比里亚经济萎缩了16%。


As the world economy sputters, African countries will have to develop trade with one another.	世界经济形势堪忧，非洲国家必须发展彼此之间的贸易。


In 2013, African goods and services accounted for just 16% of trade within the continent, and just over 3% of world trade.	2013年，非洲商品和服务只占非洲内部贸易的16%或世界贸易的3%略多。


One problem is that most African countries produce the same type of commodities and trade them with very little value-added.	一个问题是大部分非洲国家生产同类商品，并以极少量附加值进行贸易。


Policymakers must encourage greater specialization; differentiated goods and services will add value and volume to trade.	决策者必须鼓励提高专业化； 多样化的商品和服务能够自增加贸易的价值和量。


Logistics pose another obstacle to intra-African trade.	物流是非洲内部贸易的另一障碍。


Policymakers must make it easier to move goods across borders, by improving connectivity between countries and reducing bureaucratic hurdles and administrative costs.	决策者必须改善国家之间的联系，降低官僚障碍和行政成本，从而让商品跨国运输更加便利。 比如，非洲公路运输关税据估计在每吨千米0.


For example, road transport tariffs across Africa are estimated at $0.05-$0.13 per ton-kilometer, compared to the average of $0.01-$0.05 for all developing countries.	05—0. 13美元，而所有发展中国家的平均水平为0.


The Rift Valley Railway project, which will eventually link Mombasa on the Kenyan coast to Kampala in Uganda, is a good example of the benefits that investments in transportation could provide.	最终将连接肯尼亚蒙巴萨海滨和乌干达坎帕拉的东非大裂谷铁路工程很好地说明了交通投资所能提供的好处。


The African Development Bank estimates that it will double the volume of trade between the two countries, while reducing marginal costs by 30%.	非洲开发银行估计它将让两国间贸易量翻一番，同时将边际成本降低30%。


As they make these investments, policymakers must not forget that much of Africa’s recent growth can be credited to good macroeconomic policies and sound economic management.	在做出这些投资的同时，决策者也绝不能忘记近期非洲的大部分增长要归因于良好的宏观经济政策和可靠的经济管理。


Extending the continent’s rise will require strengthening the continent’s economic fundamentals.	延长非洲的崛起需要强化非洲经济基本面。


This means ensuring that prices in the economy are correct, starting with the exchange rate.	这意味着确保经济中的价格是正确的。 首先是汇率。


Some countries may need temporary controls to curb damaging capital outflows, but policymakers should aim for a market-based exchange rate and a solid plan for governing inflation, debt, foreign-exchange reserves, current accounts, and fiscal balances.	一些国家也许需要暂时管制以遏制破坏性资本流出，但决策者应该将目标放在市场汇率和制定可靠的计划治理通货膨胀、债务、外汇储备、经常账户和财政平衡上。


Africa’s potential can hardly be overstated.	非洲的潜能是无穷的。


The continent is well placed to build diversified economies based on low-carbon, sustainable infrastructure.	非洲很适合构建基于低碳可持续基础设施的多样化经济。


But policymakers cannot simply assume that Africa’s rise will continue.	但决策者不能想当然地认为非洲能持续崛起。


They must take the right steps to ensure that it does.	他们必须采取正确的措施保证这一点。


Africa’s Urban Farmers	非洲的城市农夫们


NAIROBI – When I met Eunice Wangari at a Nairobi coffee shop recently, I was surprised to hear her on her mobile phone, insistently asking her mother about the progress of a corn field in her home village, hours away from the big city.	发自内罗毕——当我最近在肯尼亚首都内罗毕一家咖啡厅遇见尤妮斯·瓦嘉里时，就对她打电话的内容感到惊讶无比。 她在手机里不断地询问她母亲家里玉米田的长势，而那个地方离首都还有几个小时车程。


A nurse, Wangari counts on income from farming to raise money to buy more land – for more farming.	作为一名护士，尤妮斯希望用种地所赚来的钱来购买更多土地——然后再种更多的地。


Even though Wangari lives in Kenya’s capital, she is able to reap hundreds of dollars a year in profit from cash crops grown with the help of relatives.	虽然生活在肯尼亚首都，但尤妮斯每年都能在亲戚帮助下从经济作物种植中获利数百美元。


Her initial stake – drawn from her nursing wages of about $350 a month – has long since been recovered.	而启动资金则是她当护士每月约350美元工资——不过这笔本钱早就收回来了。


Wangari is one of thousands of urban workers in Kenya – and one of hundreds of thousands, even millions, across Africa – who are increasing their incomes through absentee agriculture.	尤妮斯是成千上万名生活在肯尼亚的“城市农夫”中的一员——而在非洲大陆则有数十万到数百万这样的人——他们靠“远程”务农来增加自己的收入。


With prices for basic foodstuffs at their highest levels in decades, many urbanites feel well rewarded by farming.	由于基础食品的价格达到了几十年中来的最高水平，许多城里人都觉得靠务农来挣钱还是报酬颇丰的。


Absentee agriculture also bolsters national pride – and pride in traditional diets – by specializing in vegetables specific to the region.	远程务农也因此增强了人们的民族自豪感，同时也并通过对某些地区特产蔬菜的关注而提升了对传统饮食的自豪感。


“For too long our country has been flooded with imported food and Westernized foods,” Wangari says. “This is our time to fight back – and grow our own.”	“进口食品和西式食物已经在我们国家泛滥太久了”，尤妮斯说，“现在是我们发起反击，种植自己的食物的时候了。


Across Africa, political leaders, long dismissive of rural concerns, have awakened to the importance of agriculture and the role that educated people, even those living in major cities, can play in farming.	在经历了对农村地区的长期不重视之后，整个非洲大陆的领导人都悟到了农业的重要性，并意识到那些受过教育的人们，即使是在主要城市里谋生，也可以在农业中扮演一个角色。


In Nigeria, former President Olusegun Obasanjo has a huge diversified farm and has pushed for policies to help absentee farmers prosper.	在尼日利亚，前总统奥卢塞贡·奥巴桑乔就拥有一个从事多种经营的巨大农场，并推行一系列政策来帮助那些远程农夫成功创业。


In Uganda, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya routinely travels the country, promoting higher-value farming, such as dairy production.	在乌干达，副总统吉尔伯特·布坎尼亚在全国例行走访途中也着力推广更高价值的农业经营方式，比如奶制品生产。


Perhaps the most visible political support for absentee agriculture is in Liberia, a small West African country where civil war destroyed agriculture, rendering the population dependent on food imports, even today.	对远距离农业给予最明确政治支持的国家大概当属利比里亚。 这个西非小国的农业在内战中遭遇重大打击，导致国家至今依然需要依赖进口食品来养活整个人口。


President Johnson-Sirleaf, recognizing that educated people could contribute much to an agriculture revival, launched her “Back to the Soil” campaign in June 2008 in large part to encourage urban dwellers to farm.	当约翰逊-瑟利夫总统意识到受过良好教育的人们能够为农业振兴贡献很大力量时，她随即于2008年6月启动了“回归沃土”活动，尤其是鼓励城市居民投身农业。


To be sure, absentee farming by elites and educated urban workers can’t solve all of Africa’s urgent food needs.	有一点可以确定，那就是由精英和受过教育的城市人所构建的远程农业无法解决当前非洲所有迫在眉睫的食品问题。


Moreover, absentee farmers face unexpected problems.	此外，这些远程农业从业者们还会遇到意想不到的难题。


Because they don’t visit their fields often, they rely heavily on relatives and friends.  When I decided to farm wheat for the first time this spring on leased land in my childhood village, my mother agreed to supervise plowing, planting, and harvesting.	因为无法经常去地里查看，他们很大程度上只能依赖自己的亲戚朋友去照看田地。 今年春天，当我在从小长大的乡村里租了一块地并决定种一些小麦时，我母亲答应帮我定期查看播种、浇水和施肥的情况。


Without her help, I might not have farmed at all.	如果没有她的帮助，我也许根本无法进行耕作。


Even with mother’s help, I have worries.	但即使在母亲的帮助下我依然有诸多担忧。


Although I grew up around wheat fields, my knowledge of farming is thin.	虽然自小在麦田周围长大，可我关于农耕的知识却十分贫瘠。


Fertilizer and spraying were both more expensive than I thought.	肥料和杀虫剂的价格都比我想象的要贵。


While my wheat stalks are sprouting on schedule, I now fear that at harvest time – in November – prices will fall and I won’t recoup my costs.	当一棵棵麦苗正按部就班地发芽时，我却开始担心到了11月收获时小麦价格会跌，那我就连本都收不回来了。


One key tool is the mobile phone.	这时最关键的工具就是手机。


My hopes for success are buoyed by my ability to call my mother inexpensively and discuss the farm.	我重新浮现出对成功的希冀，因为我能给母亲打电话同她商量农场的事情，电话费也不贵。


We even decided over the phone what kind of pesticide to use and which tractor company to hire.	我们甚至在通话中决定用哪种杀虫剂以及雇佣哪家拖拉机公司。


Because they know both the tastes of fellow city dwellers and rural conditions, many urban farmers are succeeding.	由于这些城市农夫对城市居民的喜好以及农村的状况都很熟悉，所以其中许多人都取得了成功。


In fact, some city dwellers don’t even bother with acquiring land or gaining distant help. Certain crops can be grown in their own homes.	事实上，一些城市居民根本无需担心购买土地或者获取远程协助的问题，因为一些特定种类的农作物在他们自己家中就可种植。


James Memusi, an accountant, grows mushrooms in a spare bedroom, selling them to nearby hotels and supermarkets.	会计师詹姆斯·麦姆锡就利用家里一间空卧室种植蘑菇，并将收获卖给临近的饭店和超市。


Nevertheless, most people living in Africa’s cities have access to land in the countryside, which is why Liberia’s government rightly highlights the potential for farm expansion.	不过大多数住在非洲城市里的人都有办法在农村弄到土地，这就是为什么利比里亚政府如此肯定地强调农业的拓展潜力。


In a new advertising campaign rolled out this summer, the authorities declared, “The soil is a bank; invest in it.”	在今年夏天发起的一项新运动的推广中，官方就是这样宣传的：“土地就是座银行，往里面投资吧！ ”


In Liberia, the main push is to reduce imports of staples such as rice and tomatoes.	在利比里亚，主要动力是为了降低类似大米和西红柿等主食的进口额。


In more prosperous countries, African elites are motivated by a complex interplay of national pride, dietary concerns, and the pursuit of profit.	而在一些更为富裕的国家，非洲的精英们被相互作用的复杂原因驱动着，这些原因之中既掺杂国家自豪感和对食品短缺的担忧，又出于利益的驱使。


In Zambia, for example, Sylva Banda ignited a craze for authentic traditional meals two decades ago with a chain of popular restaurants.	比方说希尔维亚·班达20年前在赞比亚开了一系列广受喜爱的餐馆，用真正的本地菜引领起一股时尚潮流。


Now, ordinary Lusakans want to cook similar meals in their own homes, driving demand for farmers who produce such delicacies as dried pumpkin, “black jack” leaves, and fresh Okra.	而现在，普通卢萨卡市民也想要在家中自己烹饪相似的菜肴，这就需要越来越多的农民们去生产更多的精细食品，比如南瓜干、“黑杰克”菜叶和新鲜秋葵。


Similarly, in Nairobi, Miringo Kinyanjui, another woman entrepreneur, is supplying unrefined – and more nutritious – maize and wheat flour.	类似的，在内罗毕有一位名叫米林格·金亚朱尼的女企业家正在生产更有营养的粗磨玉米面和小麦粉。


In another move to distinguish her ingredients from Western versions, Kinyanjui also sells through grocery stores flour flavored with Amarathan, a green vegetable that grows around Kenya.	而将她供应的食品同西方食品进一步区分开来的则是金亚朱尼同样通过食品店售卖一种“阿玛拉桑”口味的面粉，而“阿玛拉桑”是一种在肯尼亚全国都有种植的绿色蔬菜类植物。


The revival of traditional foods has attracted the attention of large multinational corporations.	传统食品的重新流行吸引了许多跨国公司的注意。


Last year, Unilever’s Kenyan branch ran a “taste our culture” campaign in support of its line of traditional East African herbs and spices.	就在去年，联合利华公司驻肯尼亚的子公司就启动了一项“品尝我们的文化”活动来推广他们混合了东非香草和香料的一系列产品。


Such campaigns go hand-in-hand with expanded farming, because sellers of these foods prefer nearby growers – even if these growers increasingly live in the city.	这些活动都与农业规模的扩大紧密相关，因为这些卖家都更偏爱临近的种植者，即便这些“农夫”越来越都是些城里人。


After Assimilation	同化以后


Human migration is as old as history. Even migration to distant places and remote cultures is nothing new.	人类的迁徙与我们的历史一样悠久，即便移民到遥远、陌生的国度也毫不新奇。


In the nineteenth century, millions of Europeans sought liberty and prosperity in the Americas, notably in the United States.	19世纪，成百上千万的欧洲人前往美洲，特别是美国寻找自由和繁荣。


What is new today is the scale of migration, often across huge cultural divides - and often without a definite aim.	但今天的移民规模是前所未有的，移民们常常跨越了巨大的文化障碍－而且没有特定的目标。


The African boat people in the Mediterranean are often not even sure whether they want to be in Italy, Germany, or Britain.	地中海的非洲船民常常不清楚自己想去哪里：意大利、德国还是英国。


Even those who are certain, like North Africans in Spain and France, or Turks in Germany, had as their priority escaping the hopelessness of their home countries, not arriving at a particular destination.	即便像西班牙和法国的北非移民或德国的土耳其移民那样清楚自己的目的地，他们的首要目标也是摆脱国内的绝望窘境，而不是易地而居。


This modern form of migration raises massive problems for countries on the receiving end. In Europe, it is probably the most serious social issue today, because no one has a clear idea about how to manage the resulting clash of cultures.	这种现代形式的迁徙给接收国造成了很多麻烦，甚至成了欧洲目前最严重的社会问题，因为没人知道该怎样处理由此产生的文化冲突。


Once upon a time, North America, notably the US, seemed to provide the answer.	曾几何时，北美洲，特别是美国，成了解决问题的样板。


It was that of the "melting pot": different peoples made their own contribution to American culture, but, above all, they made every effort to accept what they found and integrate.	他们提出了"熔炉"概念：不同的人为美国文化做出自己的贡献，但最重要的是，他们尽力接受现实，融入美国社会。


"No," the Russian woman who came to the US in the early twentieth century replied to the grandchild who asked whether her ancestors arrived with the Pilgrims on the Mayflower. "Our ship had a different name, but now we are all Americans."	当小孙孙问起20世纪初移民美国的俄国妇女，他们的祖先是不是和朝圣者一起坐着"五月花"号轮船到达美国时，她回答说："不是，我们的船有个不一样的名字，但我们现在都是美国人。


More recently, this has changed, giving rise to a process described by Arthur Schlesinger, the historian and former aide to President John F. Kennedy, in his book	可近来情况却有所变化，约翰·F·肯尼迪总统的前助理、历史学家阿瑟·施莱辛格在其著作《美国的分裂》中描述的问题开始初现端倪。 美国公民不再都是美国人，而是要在前面加上特定的修饰语：意大利裔美国人、非洲裔美国人、西班牙裔美国人等等等等。


Even in Israel, the last true immigration country - at least for Jews - assimilation is no longer so easy.	即使在最后一个真正的移民国家以色列－至少对犹太人来讲确实如此－文化融合也不再是件易事。


Recent newcomers from Russia have their own political party, and old Europeans have become a distinct minority.	不久前到来的俄国新移民成立了自己的政党，而那些欧洲老移民成了当然的少数民族。


Israel and America continue to have mechanisms to integrate new migrants.	以色列和美国仍然具备融合新移民的机制。


Language is an important underlying factor, and in Israel, there is the army, while in America, the values embodied in the Constitution still represent a shared secular faith.	语言是个重要的根本因素，此外以色列还有军队，而美国宪法蕴藏的价值观仍然代表着共同的社会信仰。


But these mechanisms are weakening everywhere, and are virtually non-existent in European countries.	但这样的机制正在全球范围内逐渐削弱，在欧洲国家更是几乎不复存在。


Modern societies are characterized by acute problems of belonging.	归属问题成了现代社会最严重的危机。


They don't offer the implicit, unconscious ties of community that citizens felt in the past. As a result, people have begun to cling to other, more primordial group identities.	人们再也无法像过去那样感觉到含蓄却潜移默化的整体联系，结果导致他们开始固守其它更原始的团体特征。


They resist assimilation, fearing that it will rob them of their identity without offering a new one.	他们拒绝同化，害怕文化的融合不仅带不来新的归属感，还会把原来的身份也无情地夺走。


What then is the alternative to assimilation?	那么除同化外还有什么其它的选择？


The "salad bowl" of so-called multiculturalism is no real alternative, because it does not provide the necessary glue that binds communities together.	所谓的多文化主义"沙拉"并不是真正的选择，因为它提供不了联结团体所必须的粘合剂。


All the ingredients remain separate from the outset.	所有的部分从一开始就四分五裂。


The only viable alternative for which there are examples is probably that of London or New York. The main characteristic of this alternative is the coexistence of a common public sphere shared by all and a considerable degree of cultural separation in the "private" sphere, notably in residential areas.	有成功先例并且唯一可行的备选方案可能就要数伦敦和纽约了，其主要特点是所有人拥有共同的公共领域，而在"私人"领域，特别是居民区中则有很多文化差别。


The public space is multicultural in terms of people's backgrounds, but is governed by agreed values, even a common language, whereas the people's private lives are - to use an ugly word - ghettoized.	公共领域中人们的背景非常多元化，但却奉行共同的价值观甚至讲同样的语言，而人们的私生活却－用个不太好听的字眼来形容－形形色色。


In theory, this is a distinctly second-best solution to the cultural consequences of migration; in practice it is the best answer we have.	从理论上讲，这是解决移民问题的次优方案，但从实际来看，这是我们现有的最佳做法。


But it cannot be had for nothing.	但这也绝不是唾手可得。


Even the necessary minimum of a common language requires a deliberate effort, to say nothing of certain rules of behavior.	因为即便想满足共同语言的最低限度也需要努力，更不用说建立特定的行为规范了。


Living in London, I marvel at the way in which we Londoners have come to terms with Indian family shops and West Indian-run public transport, while not asking many questions about whole districts that are Bangladeshi or Chinese.	作为伦敦居民，伦敦人对印度家庭商店和西印度人管理公共交通的无言认可常常让我感到惊讶，他们从来不问为什么这个地区都是孟加拉人或中国人。


No one has yet found a name for this new version of the "separate but equal" doctrine that some of us fought so hard against in the 1960's: separate private lives in a common public space that is equal for all.	甚至没有人想到过给这种20世纪60年代曾被我们强烈反对的"分离而平等"理念取个名字：在平等的公共领域中存在着迥然不同的个人生活。


This is clearly easier in London and New York than it is in smaller towns or even in the capitals of countries where the world language of English is not spoken.	如果比起小城镇甚至是非英语国家的首都，这样的现象在伦敦和纽约等城市肯定更为普遍。


Berlin's Turkish community and the North African communities around Paris seem increasingly separate, with their own public sphere and often language.	柏林的土耳其人和巴黎周边的北非人似乎越离越远，每个民族都有自己的公共领域，也都有自己的语言。


Where this happens, an explosive condition can arise, a kind of separatism within, not by historically separate groups but by newcomers against natives.	如果出现了这种情况，就会产生蕴含着分离主义的爆炸性局面，这不是古已有之的团体对立，而是新移民与当地人之间的对立。


If we are forced to abandon the hope of assimilation, our efforts should concentrate on creating a public space to which all contribute and that all enjoy.	如果我们被迫放弃同化的希望，那么就必须集中力量创造所有人为之奉献并共同享受的公共环境。


Ideally, this should be an expanding public space, for in the end, the element of unity in a modern society is the guarantee of its citizens' liberty.	理想状况下，这种公共环境应该持续发展，因为归根结底，现代社会的团结因素是公民自由的最终保障。


After Austerity	紧缩之后


NEW YORK – This year’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund made clear that Europe and the international community remain rudderless when it comes to economic policy.	纽约—今年的IMF年会清楚地表明，欧洲和国际社会对经济政策还是一头雾水。


Financial leaders, from finance ministers to leaders of private financial institutions, reiterated the current mantra: the crisis countries have to get their houses in order, reduce their deficits, bring down their national debts, undertake structural reforms, and promote growth.	财政领导人们——不管是财政部长还是私人财政机构——不断地念念有词，说危机国必须收拾好自己的房子，削减自己的债务，降低自己的国民债务水平，实施结构性改革，并努力刺激增长。


Confidence, it was repeatedly said, needs to be restored.	需要重塑信心这一点被反复重申。


It is a little precious to hear such pontifications from those who, at the helm of central banks, finance ministries, and private banks, steered the global financial system to the brink of ruin – and created the ongoing mess.	这些把持着央行行长、财政部长、私人银行老板高位的大佬们几乎把全球金融系统拉下悬崖，造成的混乱至今仍在影响着我们，他们能说出这样的话真是有些“难能可贵”。


Worse, seldom is it explained how to square the circle.	更糟糕的是，这不啻缘木求鱼。


How can confidence be restored as the crisis economies plunge into recession?	在危机经济体深陷衰退的时候，如何重塑信心？


How can growth be revived when austerity will almost surely mean a further decrease in aggregate demand, sending output and employment even lower?	在紧缩几乎肯定会进一步拖累总需求、使产出和就业继续恶化的时候，如何重塑增长？


This we should know by now: markets on their own are not stable.	现在我们需要知道的是，市场不能靠自己稳定下来。


Not only do they repeatedly generate destabilizing asset bubbles, but, when demand weakens, forces that exacerbate the downturn come into play.	市场不但一再造成不稳定的资产泡沫，当需求疲软时，市场还会形成加剧下滑趋势的力量。


Unemployment, and fear that it will spread, drives down wages, incomes, and consumption – and thus total demand.	失业以及对失业蔓延的担心压低了工资、收入和消费，从而拖累了总需求。


Decreased rates of household formation – young Americans, for example, are increasingly moving back in with their parents – depress housing prices, leading to still more foreclosures.	家庭形成速度的下降——比如，年青一代美国人越来越多地搬回家去和父母同住——抑制了房价，导致了更多的人被剥夺了按揭权。


States with balanced-budget frameworks are forced to cut spending as tax revenues fall – an automatic destabilizer that Europe seems mindlessly bent on adopting.	实行平衡预算框架的国家被迫削减预算，因为税收收入降低了——这就是欧洲一根筋地力行不懈的“动摇器”（destabilizer）。


There are alternative strategies.	我们可以采取替代措施。


Some countries, like Germany, have room for fiscal maneuver. Using it for investment would enhance long-term growth, with positive spillovers to the rest of Europe.	德国等国家拥有财政机动的空间，用之进行投资可以提振长期增长，并对欧洲其他国家形成积极的溢出效应。


A long-recognized principle is that balanced expansion of taxes and spending stimulates the economy; if the program is well designed (taxes at the top, combined with spending on education), the increase in GDP and employment can be significant.	一条早已为人所知的原理是税收和支出的平衡扩张能刺激经济，如果有一个设计良好的计划（对尖端人士征税，并增加教育方面的支出），GDP和就业将能有巨大改善。


Europe as a whole is not in bad fiscal shape; its debt-to-GDP ratio compares favorably with that of the United States.	整体而言，欧洲的财政状况并不差：其债务-GDP比率比美国还要好。


If each US state were totally responsible for its own budget, including paying all unemployment benefits, America, too, would be in fiscal crisis.	如果美国的每个州都需要对自身预算完全负责（包括支付所有失业保险），那么美国也将爆发财政危机。


The lesson is obvious:  the whole is more than the sum of its parts.	美国的经验是显而易见的：部分之和大于整体。


If Europe – particularly the European Central Bank – were to borrow, and re-lend the proceeds, the costs of servicing Europe’s debt would fall, creating room for the kinds of expenditure that would promote growth and employment.	如果欧洲（特别是欧洲央行）可以借款并转手放贷，那么欧洲债务的维持成本就会下降，从而为刺激增长和就业的支出创造空间。


There are already institutions within Europe, such as the European Investment Bank, that could help finance needed investments in the cash-starved economies.	欧洲内部已经有了合适的机构（如欧洲投资银行）可以帮助资金受困国为必须的投资融资。


The EIB should expand its lending.	欧洲投资银行应该加大贷款力度。


There need to be increased funds available to support small and medium-size enterprises – the main source of job creation in all economies – which is especially important, given that credit contraction by banks hits these enterprises especially hard.	中小企业——就业创造的主力军，在任何国家都是如此——需要更多的资金支持，这一点尤其重要，因为银行信用的收缩对中小企业的冲击尤重。


Europe’s single-minded focus on austerity is a result of a misdiagnosis of its problems.	欧洲之所以一根筋地死抓紧缩不放，是因为他们误诊了问题。


Greece overspent, but Spain and Ireland had fiscal surpluses and low debt-to-GDP ratios before the crisis.	希腊确实是指出过度，但西班牙和爱尔兰在危机前财政都有盈余，债务-GDP比率也���低。


Giving lectures about fiscal prudence is beside the point.	大谈审慎财政可谓使错了力。


Taking the lectures seriously –  even adopting tight budget frameworks – can be counterproductive.	把这一点当真，甚至采取严厉的预算框架只能适得其反。


Regardless of whether Europe’s problems are temporary or fundamental – the eurozone, for example, is far from an “optimal” currency area, and tax competition in a free-trade and free-migration area can erode a viable state – austerity will make matters worse.	不论欧洲的问题是暂时性的还是基础性的——比如，欧元区远非“最优”货币区，且自由贸易和人口自由流动地区的税收竞赛会拖垮原本健康的国家——紧缩肯定只能让情况更加糟糕。


The consequences of Europe’s rush to austerity will be long-lasting and possibly severe.	欧洲忙不迭采取紧缩措施的后果将持续很长时间，而且可能会很严重。


If the euro survives, it will come at the price of high unemployment and enormous suffering, especially in the crisis countries.	如果欧元可以幸存下来，那也是以高失业和多重痛苦（特别是对危机国家来说）为代价的。


And the crisis itself almost surely will spread.	而危机本身几乎肯定会蔓延开来。


Firewalls won’t work, if kerosene is simultaneously thrown on the fire, as Europe seems committed to doing: there is no example of a large economy – and Europe is the world’s largest – recovering as a result of austerity.	一边建防火墙一边火上浇油，最后只能是无功而返，这就是欧洲正在做的事情：还没有哪个大型经济体——欧洲是世界最大经济体——曾经通过紧缩带来过复苏。


As a result, society’s most valuable asset, its human capital, is being wasted and even destroyed.	因此，社会最宝贵的资产——人力资本正在被浪费甚至摧毁。


Young people who are long deprived of a decent job – and youth unemployment in some countries is approaching or exceeding 50%, and has been unacceptably high since 2008 – become alienated.	年轻人长期找不到体面的工作——一些国家年轻人失业率正在达到或超过50%，且自2008年以来便一直处于难以接受的高水平——对社会产生了离心感。


When they eventually find work, it will be at a much lower wage.	即使他们最终找到了工作，工资也会低得多。


Normally, youth is a time when skills get built up; now, it is a time when they atrophy.	通常，青年时代是积累技能的时期，而现在的年轻人却在流失技能。


So many economies are vulnerable to natural disasters – earthquakes, floods, typhoons, hurricanes, tsunamis – that adding a man-made disaster is all the more tragic.	如此多的国家在自然灾害面前束手无策——地震、洪水、台风、飓风、海啸，等等——而人造灾难更是雪上加霜。


But that is what Europe is doing.	但这正是欧洲做的事情。


Indeed, its leaders’ willful ignorance of the lessons of the past is criminal.	事实上，欧洲领导人故意忽视历史教训可以说是一种犯罪。


The pain that Europe, especially its poor and young, is suffering is unnecessary.	欧洲——特别是欧洲穷人和年轻人——所正在经历的痛苦是完全可以避免的。


Fortunately, there is an alternative.	幸运的是，我们可以找到替代方案。


But delay in grasping it will be very costly, and Europe is running out of time.	但迟迟不行动将带来高昂的代价，而欧洲正在浪费宝贵的时间。


After Kyoto	京都议定书之后


The Kyoto Protocol treaty has now entered into force for the 126 nations who have joined it so far.	《京都议定书》已对参加该协议的126国生效。


Now is the time to start thinking about how to engage all nations, including large emitters, in conversations about what to do after the treaty’s expiration in 2012.	现在是时候考虑如何使所有的国家，包括那些气体排放大国，参与讨论2012年，即该议定书失效后的应对方法了。


This is exactly what the European Commission did recently by providing its first strategy for a post-Kyoto era, which will be discussed by the European Council next March.	这正是欧盟执委会最近针对后京都时代提出的第一个策略所要做的，这一策略将在三月份交由欧盟理事会讨论。


While the Kyoto Protocol represents only a modest reduction of carbon emissions in industrialized countries – 5.2% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990 levels, with varying targets for individual countries – real progress can be made in sustaining development efforts and preserving our planet.	尽管京都议定书已使工业国家二氧化碳排放量略有轻微下降——伴随着各国不一的目标，2008至2012年间二氧化碳排放量比1990年下降了5. 2%——但是真正的进展却要通过致力于持续发展和保护我们的星球才能实现。


But first, all countries must integrate climate concerns into policy planning, and improve their governance in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and transport.	但是首先，所有国家必须将对气候的关注与政策制定融合一体，加强对能源、基础设施和交通等重要部门的控制。


In other words, we must act in accordance with the recognition that climate change and its effects on people in both rich and poor countries remains a threat to global security.	换言之，在对气候变化有所认识并且意识到它给发达国家和贫困国家人民带来的影响将对全球安全构成威胁这一点后，我们必须采取相应措施。


At the end of the day, the long-term approach is likely to include a rules-based system, an incentives system, and investments in technology change.	最后，这一长期计划应该包括一个标准式系统、一个激励体系以及技术改革所需的投资资金。


Increasingly, adaptation at the national level will be recognized as a major issue that will require appropriate funding.	国家对此计划的应用将日益成为一个需要充足资金的主要项目。


Dealing with the impacts of climate change and with emission reductions should not be mutually exclusive, but complementary.	对气候变化影响和减排量这两个问题的处理并非相互排斥，而是互补的。


Looking ahead to the post-Kyoto world offers us the chance to start a new dialogue and to look at new options on climate change.	对后京都时代的展望将让我们有机会开启一场新对话，并开始寻求解决气候变化问题的新方案。


Nations could set the more ambitious goal of limiting the long-term change in the earth’s temperature, and then assign emissions rights among countries in such a way that will eventually limit temperature increases to an acceptable level.	各国可以将“长期限制地球温度的变化”作为更具雄心的目标，随后在各国之间分配排放权，最终在一个可以接受的水平内限制温度上升。


This would require increasing investments in energy research and development for new and improved technologies – a process that needs to be supported by stronger public-private partnerships.	这将需要在能源研究和开发新型技术方面持续加大投入——需要更为强有力的公私营机构的合作予以支持。


Up to now, with only 15% of the world’s population, rich countries have been responsible for more than 75% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and thus most of the environmental damage.	目前为止，只占世界人口15%的发达国家却排放了占世界总量75%以上的二氧化碳，是大部分环境破坏的罪魁祸首。


However, it is the developing countries – and thus the world’s poor – who are most vulnerable.	然而，发展中国家，也就是全世界的贫困人民——却饱受苛责。


It is unrealistic to ask poor countries, where more than 1.6 billion people do not have access to clean energy and technologies, to bear the costs associated with the much needed technological change.	要那些居住在贫困国家、无法获得清洁能源和技术的16亿人民去承担技术改革所需的费用是不现实的，尽管这样的技术改革非常必需。


Working with partners, the World Bank is supporting financial strategies to assist developing countries in meeting the costs caused by climate change.	世界银行与其合作伙伴一起，正致力于为发展中国家提供金融策略以帮助他们支付气候变化带来的费用。


To date, over $1 billion dollars in Global Environment Facility (GEF) grants, together with about $8 billion in co-financing, have been committed to programs related to climate change.	迄今为止，来自全球环境基金（GEF）的十亿多美元资金，与80亿美元的联合资金一起，已承诺将用于气候变化相关的项目。


While the regulatory mechanisms of both Kyoto and the European Trading Scheme have contributed to the establishment of an emerging market for carbon trading, interested parties are now concerned about the immediate future.	京都议定书和欧洲贸易计划的调节机制促进了日益兴起的碳贸易的确立，使得有兴趣的政党现在开始对不久的将来表示担忧。


Without a regulatory framework beyond 2012, the window of opportunity for initiating project-based transactions will close by 2006/2007.	若2012年后还没有一个管理框架出台，那么创立一个项目式交易的机会之窗将在2006或2007年之前关闭。


Given the long lead time between project preparation and the first benefits of emissions reductions, project developers have only a few years to act before carbon payments cease to make a meaningful contribution to project finance in the current context.	如果项目准备期与减排第一次利润出现之间还有一段很长的前置期，那么，在碳交易结算停止之前，项目发展者只有短短几年的时间在当前情况下为该项目资金创造一个有价值的贡献。


Developing infrastructure projects is a long process that requires 3-7 years from identification, through licensing, financing, and construction, and finally to the first certification of carbon emission reductions.	发展基础设施项目是一个漫长的过程，从确立到获得许可、筹措资金，到最后证明碳化物排放减少需要3到7年的时间。


Therefore, projects need to be operational at the latest by 2007.	因此，该项目必须在2007年之前进入操作阶段。


The World Bank has been instrumental in advancing carbon finance as a viable development tool, and in facilitating private-sector participation in the market.	世界银行已经开始将碳资金当作一项可行的发展工具来加以促进推动，并且鼓励私营机构加入此市场。


The Bank is focused on representing the interests of its borrowing countries, helping them to develop assets for carbon trading according to their own priorities.	世界银行将重点放在维护其债国的利益之上，帮助他们根据各自的优势来发展碳贸易的资产。


But, without a commitment by governments to limit greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2012, the carbon market will remain uncertain, and the private sector – vital to the market’s success – is unlikely to expand its participation in a meaningful and sustained way.	但是，若政府不作出在2012年后降低温室气体排放的承诺，碳市场将仍然难以捉摸，对该市场成功与否至关重要的私营机构，将不愿意持续地、针对性地扩大它们的参与范围。


According to a recent World Bank-supported survey of companies interested in carbon finance, only one in five respondents declared that they were interested in buying post-2012 emissions reductions.	根据最近由世行资助的一项对有意碳资金的公司的调查来看，只有五分之一的公司宣称他们有兴趣购买2012年后的减排量。


Now is the chance to look forward and enlist the global community – with no exclusions, although with differentiated responsibilities – in the pursuit of a more secure world, one that avoids the dire risks of environmental degradation and social conflict implied by inaction.	现在正是考虑将来并争取全球所有国家（尽管各国责任各有不同，但无一例外）支持的大好机会，这样才能寻求一个更为安全的世界，避免环境恶化带来的可怕后果和消极以待将引发的社会争端。


After Paris	巴黎之后


NEW YORK – The attacks in Paris by individuals associated with the Islamic State, coming on the heels of bombings in Beirut and the downing of a Russian airliner over the Sinai Peninsula, reinforce the reality that the terrorist threat has entered a new and even more dangerous phase.	纽约—与伊斯兰国有关的个体对巴黎进行了袭击，此前，贝鲁特发生爆炸事件，更有一家俄罗斯班机在西奈半岛上空坠毁。 这一切强化了恐怖主义威胁正在进入更危险的新阶段的现实。


Just why the Islamic State decided to stage its attacks now is a matter for conjecture; it may well be that it is going global to compensate for its recent loss of territory in Iraq.	伊斯兰国为什么要组织袭击现在仍停留在猜测阶段； 很有可能是因为它因为最近在伊拉克丧失领土而追求全球报复。


But whatever the rationale, what is certain is that a clear response is warranted.	但不管原因如何，可以确定的是必然会有明确的反应。


Actually, the challenge posed by the Islamic State calls for several responses, as there is no single policy that promises to be sufficient.	实际上，伊斯兰国所构成的挑战需要多重反应，因为没有哪项单独的政策足以应对。


Multiple efforts are needed in multiple domains.	我们需要多重领域的多重反应。


One is military.	其一是军事。


More intense attacks from the air against Islamic State military assets, oil and gas facilities, and leaders are critical.	加大针对伊斯兰国军事资产、石油和前燃气设施以及领导人的空中打击力度至关重要。


But no amount of air power on its own will ever get the job done.	但不论多大的空中力量也无法单枪匹马解决战斗。


A substantial ground component is needed if territory is to be taken and held.	如果想要占领并守住领土，就必须大量派遣地面部队。


Unfortunately, there is no time to build a partner force on the ground from scratch.	不幸的是，已经没有时间从零开始建设一支地面友军。


This has been tried and failed, and Arab states are unable or unwilling to constitute one.	曾经做过这一尝试，但以失败告终，而阿拉伯国家也无法或不愿组建这样一支地面部队。


The Iraqi army has also come up short.	伊拉克军队让人失望。


Iran-backed militias only make matters worse.	伊朗支持的民兵只能让事情变得更糟。


The best option is to work more closely with Kurdish troops and select Sunni tribes in both Iraq and Syria.	最佳的选择是与库尔德军队更加紧密地合作，并遴选伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派部落。


This means providing intelligence, arms, and being willing to send more soldiers – more than the 3,500 Americans already there, and possibly on the order of 10,000 – to train, advise, and help direct a military response.	这意味着提供情报、武装并准备派遣更多士兵——目前只有3,500美军，这是不够的，也许需要上万人的数量级——训练、充当顾��和帮助指导军事行动。


Such an effort must be collective.	这一方针必须以集体行动的方式落实。


It can be informal – a “coalition of the willing” that would include the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Arab states, and even Russia under the right circumstances – or carried out under NATO or United Nations auspices.	可以是非正式的形式——一个包括美国、法国、英国、阿拉伯国家，甚至在正确的前提下包括俄罗斯在内的“志愿联盟”——也可以在北约或联合国的支持下进行。


The packaging matters less than the results.	如何组织不重要，结果更重要。


Symbolic declarations of war, though, ought to be considered with caution, lest the Islamic State appear to be winning every day it does not lose.	但象征性地宣战要慎之又慎，以免造成伊斯兰国不输便是赢的表象。


A diplomatic component is no less essential to any response.	外交反应的重要性不下于任何其他反应。


Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a recruiting tool for the Islamic State and must go.	叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德是伊斯兰国招募人手的工具，他必须下台。


But any successor government must be able to maintain order and not permit the Islamic State to exploit a power vacuum, as it has done in Libya.	但继任政府必须能够维持秩序，不允许伊斯兰国利用权力真空，重蹈利比亚的覆辙。


Moreover, orderly political change can be brought about only with Russian and Iranian support.	此外，有序的政治变革必须在俄罗斯和伊朗的支持下进行。


One near-term option worth exploring is a coalition government still headed by a representative of the Alawite minority, a concession that could well be the price of moving Assad out of power.	一个值得探索的短期选择方案是成立一个仍以阿拉维少数派代表为首的联合政府，这是让巴沙尔远离权力的必要的让步。


In principle, and over time, a more representative national government could come about, although talk of holding elections in 18 months is fanciful under any scenario.	理论上，借以时日，可能产生一个更具代表性的国家政府，尽管不论在何种情形下，要在18个月内举行选举都只是幻想。


But reaching a compromise along these lines could well be impossible.	但在这些方面形成妥协也许非常困难。


This is why increased military effort is needed to bring about larger and more secure enclaves that could better protect civilians and take the fight to the Islamic State.	因此，必须加码军事手段建立更大更多的飞地以更好地保护平民和打击伊斯兰国。


Syria is not a normal country in any sense, and it will not be for a long time, if ever.	不论从何种角度看，叙利亚都不再是正常国家，并且在相当长的一段时间（如果不是永远的话）都无法成为正常国家。


A Syria of enclaves or cantons is a more realistic model for the foreseeable future.	在可预见的未来，一个由飞地和根据地组成的叙利亚才是更加现实的模式。


Other indispensable elements of any effective strategy include expanded help for or pressure on Turkey to do much more to stem the flow of recruits to the Islamic State.	有效战略的其他不可或缺要素包括给予土耳其更大的帮助或压力，令其花更大的力气阻止应募者流入伊斯兰国。


And Turkey, along with Jordan and Lebanon, need more financial assistance as they shoulder the bulk of the refugee burden.	土耳其以及约旦和黎巴嫩需要更多的金融支持，因为它们承担了大部分难民负担。


Arab and Muslim leaders can do their part by speaking out to challenge the Islamic State’s vision and delegitimize its behavior.	阿拉伯和穆斯林领导人也可以做出贡献，挑战伊斯兰国的愿景、破坏伊斯兰国行为的合法性。


There is also a domestic dimension to policy.	国内政策也大有可为。


Homeland security and law enforcement – increasing protection both at borders and within them – will have to adjust to the increased threat.	祖国安全和执法情况——加强边界和内部保护——必须根据日益严重的威胁作出调整。


Retail terrorists – individuals or small groups carrying out armed attacks against soft targets in open societies – are extremely difficult to deal with.	零散恐怖分子——针对开放社会的软目标实施武装袭击的个体或小集团——最难对付。


The threat and the reality of attacks will require greater social resilience and quite possibly a rebalancing of individual privacy and collective security.	袭击的威胁和现实需要更大的社会恢复力，也许还需要平衡个人隐私和集体安全之间的关系。


What is also required is a dose of realism.	除此之外还需要现实主义。


The struggle against the Islamic State is not a conventional war.	与伊斯兰国的斗争不是一场传统战争。


We cannot eradicate or destroy it any time soon, as it is as much a network and an idea as it is an organization and a de facto state that controls territory and resources.	我们无法短时间内根除或消灭伊斯兰国，因为它有一个网络、一套思想，也因为它是一个控制着领土和资源的组织、一个事实上的国家。


Indeed, terrorism is and will continue to be one of the scourges of this era.	诚然，恐怖主义是并将继续是现时代一场灾难。


The good news, though, is that the threat posed by the Islamic State to the Middle East and the rest of the world can be dramatically reduced through sustained, concerted action.	但好消息是，伊斯兰国给中东和世界其他地区所造成的威胁可以通过持续的集体行动大幅削弱。


The main lesson of the attack on Paris is that we must be prepared to act over time and place alike.	巴黎袭击的主要教训是我们必须随时随地做好行动准备。


After Pax Americana?	美式和平之后


NEW YORK – It has become popular to suggest that when the dust settles from the global financial crisis, it may become clear that the United States-led post-war world has come to an end.	纽约--一段时间以来，有人热衷于说当全球金融危机尘埃落定之时，美国主导的战后世界将会结束。


If so, the global system that has secured peace, security, openness, and economic growth over the past six decades could be in grave danger.	如果这样，在过去六十年中确保了和平、安全、开放以及经济增长的全球体制就会处于严重危险之中。


Inspired by American leadership since World War II’s end, Europe, then Japan, then much of Asia and the world rose to new levels of prosperity; the world economy globalized upon the foundation of international institutions, norms, and standards; and foreign students educated in American universities returned home with new ideas about free markets, entrepreneurship, and democracy.	欧洲、日本和亚洲和世界其他大部分地区受到美国战后领导地位的鼓舞相继实现了繁荣。 世界经济在国际体制、规则以及标准的基础上实现了全球化。


The US military’s protective umbrella gave large swaths of the world a vacation from war, making it easier for them to focus on economic growth and regional integration.	在美国大学接受教育的外国学生把有关自由市场、创业精神以及民主的新观点带回国内。 美国军队的保护伞让世界上的大部分地区免于战火，使得这些地区更为容易地专心致志地从事经济增长和地区联合。


America not only took the lead role in building the institutions of a globalizing world – the United Nations, World Bank, IMF, NATO– it also became the model that many other countries looked to for inspiration.	美国不仅在建立联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织以及北约等全球化世界的机制中发挥了主导作用，而且，其他许多国家也寻求美国模式的灵感。


After eight years of compromised American leadership, a botched war of choice in Iraq, failure to take the lead in global efforts to address climate change, Abu Ghraib, Guantánamo Bay, running up a $10 trillion debt, and igniting a global financial crisis – America’s once-glittering model has lost a good deal of its luster and America’s leadership has been questioned by many.	它限于伊拉克战争泥潭，未能领导世界处理气候变化问题，在阿布格莱布虐囚，在关塔纳摩基地关押人犯，赤字高达十万亿美元并且引发了全球金融危机。 美国一度耀眼的模式已经风光不再，而且许多人质疑美国的领导地位。


The point was driven home at the 7th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Beijing this autumn, where European and Asian leaders began exploring ideas for a new global financial structure.	今年秋天在北京举行的第七次亚欧首脑会议证明了这一点。 在这次会议上，亚欧各国领导人开始研究建立新的全球金融结构。


For much of the past 60 years, it would have been impossible to hold such a fundamental dialogue without US participation. Today, it is almost becoming a new global norm that neither the international committee nor the US is prepared for.	在过去六十年的大部分时间里，人们不可能在没有美国参加的情况下举行这样的重大对话，这一全球性的情况国际社会和美国都没有做好准备。


Despite talk about American decline, the world is not prepared for a post-American era.	尽管人们谈论美国衰落，但是世界对后美国时代还是没有做好准备。


As irksome as some of America’s actions have been, particularly over the past eight years, America remains the world’s most critical champion of the progressive values that have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty and political repression.	尽管美国的某些行为令人厌烦，但是在促进将数以亿计的人口从极端贫困和政治迫害中解脱出来的进步价值观上，美国还是一马当先。


If the US were to play a relatively smaller role in world affairs, and no other system was created to pick up the slack, these values could be at risk.	如果美国在世界事务上发挥相对较小的作用而且没有建立其他制度来弥补空缺，那么，这些价值观就会受到危险。


Although many states now hide behind an alleged universal principle of inviolable state sovereignty, for example, would the international community really want to go back to the old model where states did whatever they wanted to their citizens within the confines of their own borders?	尽管有些国家躲藏在所谓的主权不可侵犯的普遍原则上，国际社会是否果真愿意回到国家可以对其人民为所欲为的老模式之中呢？


Do countries around the world believe that they will be better off if the global trade system breaks down or international shipping lanes become less secure?	世界各国是否相信，如果全球贸易体系崩溃或者国际航运线路不再安全它们的日子会更好呢？


Are countries like China willing to step up and pay their fair share of dues to keep the UN running (China currently pays 2.1% of UN dues, compared to more than 25% for the US), or to capitalize revised international financial institutions or the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in a meaningful way?	像中国这样的国家是否愿意增加联合国会员经费以保持联合国运转(中国目前的经费是2. 1%，美国是25%)？


Unless other countries become more willing to step forward for the common good, a post-American world could quickly become a far more frightening environment than what it would replace.	还是愿意为改制后的国际金融机构或全球基金注资来确实消除艾滋病、肺结核以及霍乱呢？ 除非其他国家更加愿意为人类共同事业挺身而出，否则，后美国的世界将会马上要比原先的更为令人害怕。


To make its case for a continued global leadership role, America must, however, step up to the plate.  While the go-it-alone impulse of the Bush administration has been discredited by its consequences, the inverse lessons regarding how important collaborative action is in today’s interconnected world are still being learned.	美国为了继续领导世界就必须承担责任。 布什政府的单边主义冲动由于其后果而受到非议，但是反过来，如今相互依存的世界中相互合作的重要性人们还是在摸索。


Even at the apex of American power, America’s greatness was always based on inspiring others, and the opportunities for building market share in that particular category remain unlimited.	即使在美国鼎盛时期，其伟大之处也是鼓舞激励他人，而在这一特殊领域中建立市场份额的机会还是不可限量。


It is impossible to overestimate how significant a step Barack Obama’s election is in this direction, but America’s actions over the coming years will be the ultimate determinant of whether the power of America’s model can be restored.	奥巴马当选美国总统在这一方向迈出了重大一步，对此人们不可低估。 但是，美国在未来几年中采取的行动将会最终决定美国模式的力量是否可以恢复。


America can and should, for example, become the global leader combating climate change through major investments in alternative energy, conservation, and energy efficiency, and by taking strong actions at home to reduce America’s greenhouse gas emissions.  It should transform its immigration policy to recruit the best and brightest people from around the world to move to the US and become citizens, and remain the world’s leading champion of open markets, especially during the current financial crisis.	美国可以而且应该领导世界，通过大量投资于替换能源、节能、能源效率以及采取大力行动减少温室气体排放来处理解决气候变化问题。 它应该改变移民政策，在全球招募俊才前来美国并成为美国公民，以及继续推行公开市场，特别是当前金融危机之下。


Closing the prison at Guantánamo and reaffirming America’s commitment to international law and human rights will also be an important step in this direction.	关闭关塔纳摩监狱并且重申美国对国际法和人权的承诺也将是这一方向的重要一步。


The world wants to believe in an America that lives up to its own best values.	世界想要相信遵守自身最佳价值观的美国。


The prospect of a truly global community of nations working together to achieve the greater good for all is indeed exciting.	国际社会各国共同努力实现共同事业这一前景的确令人激动。


But, although America has been far from perfect over the last six decades, the end of the pax Americana has the potential to create a dangerous void in international affairs.	但是，尽管美国在过去六十年中并非完美无缺，美式和平的终结有可能在国际事务中造成危险的真空。


If the world is going to shift in the direction of a new and more globally democratic system, other nations will need to meaningfully step forward to assume new responsibilities.	如果世界转向一个新的、更为全球性民主的体制，那么，其他国家就需要有效地采取行动承担新的责任。


It is in America’s and the world’s interest that they do so.  The evidence of this will be seen not only in global institutions but also in places like Darfur, Zimbabwe, and Burma.	它们这样做符合美国和世界的利益。 不仅在全球性机构、而且在达尔富尔、津巴布韦以及缅甸等地方都可以得到验证。


Until this happens, let us all hope that America can get back on track as the global champion of collaborative action to address the world’s greatest challenges and work with as many other countries  as possible to move collectively in the right direction.	在这以前，还是让我们希望美国再次成为共同处理解决世界最严重挑战的带头人，并且于尽量多的国家合作朝向正确的方向前进。


After the Guns of August	八月冲突之后


The Middle East is a place where the dust hardly ever settles.	中东战争的尘埃从未落定。


When it occasionally does, even for a short interval – as UN Resolution 1701 for cessation of hostilities in Lebanon seems to be holding – it is time to take stock of events in the hopes that a responsible debate may influence those in power.	每当偶尔闪现出瞬间的希望¾就像平息黎巴嫩冲突的联合国1701号决议让人们看到了曙光¾人们真的应该抓住机会认真思考整个事件的前前后后，期望一场负责任的辩论能够对当权者造成影响。


Let’s start with the United States.	就从美国说起吧。


President George W. Bush has been short on neither initiatives nor catchy slogans and acronyms.	乔治·W·布什总统既拿不出可行的方案，也提不出令人心动的口号和名词。


Recent years are littered with them: “Global War on Terror” (GWOT), “Road Map,” “Middle East Partnership Initiative “ (MEPI), “Broader Middle East and North Africa” (BMENA) – originally “Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) – Democracy Assisted Dialogue (DAD), and so on.	近年来充斥着他平庸的创意：“对恐怖主义的全球战争”（GWOT）、“路线图”、“中东伙伴关系计划”（MEPI）、“泛中东和北非倡议”（BMENA）¾也就是原来的“泛中东倡议”（GMEI）¾“民主支持的对话”（DAD）等等诸如此类。


His latest reverie, envisioned in the thick of the recent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, was the New Middle East (NME), with US clients Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia serving as the pillars of regional order.	他在以色列和真主党交战正酣之际最新提出的幻想被命名为“新中东计划”（NME），在这项计划里，美国的委托人以色列、埃及、约旦和沙特阿拉伯被当成了地区秩序的支撑力量。


But like all his previous initiatives since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington almost five years ago now, the NME ran into trouble from the outset.	但正如他在五年前纽约和华盛顿遭袭后提出的所有计划一样，“新中东计划”从一开始就麻烦重重。


Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced its birth while rejecting an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon.	国务卿康多莉扎·赖斯在宣布该计划诞生的同时，否决了黎巴嫩立即停火的提案。


Her poor timing made the initiative appear heartless, as thousands of civilians were being uprooted, killed, or maimed by Israel’s efficient but ruthless artillery and air force.	她不恰当的时间选择让新计划毫无诚意可言。 在这项计划诞生的同时，成千上万的平民百姓在以色列高效但却无情的炮火和空袭中流离失所、无辜丧命或者身负重伤。


This so embarrassed the three Arab NME partners that each raced to distance itself from the US-sponsored initiative.	“新中东计划”令三位阿拉伯伙伴深感不安，它们都迫不及待地同这项由美国提出的计划划清界限。


Saudi Arabia, which had remained silent for nearly two weeks, did so with a $500 million contribution to rebuilding devastated areas of Lebanon and another billion to support Lebanon’s threatened currency.	沙特阿拉伯在沉默了近两个星期后，终于宣布捐款5亿美元重建被战火摧毁的黎巴嫩区域，不仅如此，沙特还承诺拨出10亿美元支持岌岌可危的黎巴嫩货币。


Egypt’s heir apparent Gamal Mubarak followed suit in the fourth week of the fighting by heading a 70-member delegation on a solidarity visit to Beirut.	黎以交战进入第四个星期时，埃及政权当然的继承人贾迈勒·穆巴拉克(Gamal Mubarak)也站到了黎巴嫩一边，率领70人的代表团访问贝鲁特。


But, rather than earning him the respect of an outraged Egyptian public, revelations in the opposition press that his plane had to obtain a safe passage and authority to land from the Israelis garnered only howls of derision.	但那次访问不但没能赢得愤怒的埃及公众对他的尊重，反而使他成为了笑柄，因为反对派媒体上披露他的专机被迫为安全通行和降落请求以色列人的批准。


As for America, anything it touches in the Middle East has become radioactive, even for longstanding clients and friends.	至于美国，它在中东的举手投足无一例外地臭名昭著，即便是长期委托人和朋友也避之唯恐不及。


In the course of maneuvering to delay the UN ceasefire, Bush and Rice continually reiterated the need for a Security Council resolution that deals forcefully with “the roots of the problem.”	在为推迟联合国停火协议四处游说的同时，布什和赖斯翻来覆去地强调必须通过一项安理会决议，用武力来应对“问题的根源”。


Of course, for them and for Israel, this was Hezbollah and the need to eradicate or at a minimum disarm it and force its fighters to a safe distance from settlements and towns in northern Israel.	勿庸置疑，对美国和以色列来讲，这个根源就是黎巴嫩真主党，必须将其彻底消灭，至少也要解除武装，迫使真主党的战士远离以色列北部的城镇和犹太定居点。


While this is a reasonable demand, the rest of the Middle East – and, indeed, much of the world, including Europe – regard the root cause of the conflict as Israeli intransigence and arrogance, together with America’s blind support for it.	尽管这个要求当属合理，但其他中东国家¾实际上甚至包括欧洲在内的世界上大部分国家¾都把以色列的强硬傲慢，以及美国对它的盲目支持看做是冲突的根源所在。


Both America and Israel have cited foot-dragging in implementing UN Resolution 1559, which calls for disarming all non-state actors in Lebanon and the deployment of government forces all the way to the southern border.	美国和以色列都称联合国第1559号决议执行不力，决议内容要求解散黎巴嫩所有非政府武装，并把政府部队一直部署到黎南部边境。


But for years the US and Israel have not uttered a word about the dozens of UN resolutions, going back as far as Resolution 49 on partition in 1947, which called for the establishment of distinct Arab and Jewish states on roughly half of Mandated Palestine.	但多年以来，美国和以色列却从未对多达几十项其他联合国决议发表过任何评论，这种情况最早可以追溯到1947年的第49号决议，该决议要求把巴勒斯坦的托管土地分成两半，分别建立起阿拉伯以及犹太国家。


This and numerous other resolutions seeking redress for injustices toward Palestinians have been ignored by the US.	试图改变巴勒斯坦人所受不公正待遇的上述以及其他决议美国全都置之不理。


Thus, for 300 million Arabs and more than one billion Muslims the “root cause” of the Middle East conflict is not Hezbollah.	正因为如此，对3亿阿拉伯人和10多亿穆斯林来说，黎巴嫩真主党并不是中东战争的“最终根源”。


As its leader, Hassan Nasrallah aptly put it, “We are just a reaction to chronic injustice.”	真主党领袖哈桑·纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)形容得十分贴切，“真主党只不过是长期不公所缔造的产物。 ”


It may well be that there is more than one root cause – every party to the conflict has a favorite one.	冲突的根本原因很可能不只一种¾各方对此都有着不同的说辞。


There is no point in belaboring whose pain is greater or whose root cause is deeper.	分析哪一方的痛苦更剧烈或根源更深刻没有任何意义。


In fact, arguing over grievances merely drives the sides further apart.	事实上，对不满情绪无休止的争论只会使各方离得更远。


The long overdue UN Resolution 1701 may, with its adoption, indicate that all parties are fatigued, or could no longer withstand international pressure.	迟来太久的联合国第1701号决议的生效可能表明各方都已经感到疲惫，抑或是再也忍受不了国际上的压力。


This is good news for all concerned and provides an opportunity to tackle each party’s “root cause.”	这对各方来讲都是好消息，给它们带来了解决各自根源问题的一次机遇。


Seizing the opportunity requires that humility rather than moral supremacy prevails.	抓住这次机遇需要虚怀若谷，而不是盲目自大。