This is certainly a species of intellectual corruption, if not political corruption (it’s probably both).	这无疑是学术腐败、甚至政治腐败的实例（很可能两者兼而有之）。


The fact that the energy system involves so many complex interconnections leads to tremendous inertia.	能源体系牵涉到如此众多盘根错节的关系构成了巨大的惯性。


Shifting to a low-carbon energy system will therefore require considerable planning, long lead times, dedicated financing, and coordinated action across many parts of the economy, including energy producers, distributors, and residential, commercial, and industrial consumers.	因此向低碳能源体系的转型需要周密的计划、充分的时间、专项融资以及跨越能源生产商、分销商、居民、商业和工业消费者等众多经济部门的协调行动。


Policy measures such as a tax on carbon emissions can help to address some – but only some – challenges of the energy transition.	碳排放税等政策可以解决某些问题，但上述措施在能源转型中所能解决的问题也仅限于一部分。


Here is another problem.	还有一个问题需要引起关注。


If governments plan only 10-15 years ahead, as is typical in energy policy, rather than 30-50 years, they will tend to make poor system-related choices.	如果政府只是提前10到15年、而非30到50年制定计划，那么他们很可能犯下低级的系统性错误。


For example, energy planners will move from coal to lower-carbon natural gas; but they will tend to underinvest in the much more decisive shift to renewable energy.	例如，能源规划者会从煤转向低碳天然气； 而对起决定作用的可再生能源投资却可能仍显不足。


Similarly, they may opt to raise fuel standards for internal-combustion automobiles rather than to push the needed shift to electric vehicles.	同样，他们可能会选择提高内燃汽车的燃油标准，而不是推动朝电动车的必要过渡。


In this sense, planning 30-50 years ahead is vital not only to make the correct long-run choices, but also to inform the correct short-term choices.	在这个意义上，提前30到50年制定计划不仅对作出正确的长期选择至关重要，而且也能促成正确的短期选择。


The UN’s Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project has shown how long-term plans can be designed and evaluated.	联合国的深度脱碳途径计划表明了怎样对长期计划进行设计和评估。


None of these challenges sits easily with elected politicians.	上述挑战对当选政治家而言都绝非易事。


The decarbonization challenge requires consistent policies over 30-50 years, while politicians’ time horizon is perhaps a tenth of that.	脱碳计划需要在30到50年内执行一以贯之的政策，而政治家可能却仅能把握其中1/10的时间跨度。


Nor are politicians very comfortable with a problem that requires large-scale public and private financing, highly coordinated action across many parts of the economy, and decision-making in the face of ongoing technological uncertainties.	政治家在涉及大规模公共和私人融资、跨经济部门高度协调合作和面对持续不断的技术不确定性做出决策等一系列问题上都面临很大的难度。


Small wonder, then, that most politicians have shied away from this challenge, and that far too little practical progress has been made since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in 1992.	因此，难怪多数政治家都选择回避这一挑战，而且从1992年联合国气候变化框架公约签订后所取得的实际进展就一直甚微。


One key step, I believe, is to remove these issues from short-term electoral politics.	我认为关键步骤是将上述问题从短期选举政治中移除。


Countries should consider establishing politically independent energy agencies with high technical expertise.	各国应考虑设立掌握专业技术且政治独立的能源机构。


Of course, key energy decisions (such as whether to deploy nuclear energy or to build a new transmission grid) will require deep public participation, but planning and implementation should be free of excessive partisan politics and lobbying.	当然，重要的能源决策（如是否部署核能或建设新的输电网）将需要公众深度参与，但计划的制定和执行却不应受到党派政治和游说的过度干预。


Just as governments have successfully given their central banks some political independence, they should give their energy agencies enough leeway to enable them think and act for the long term.	就像政府成功给予央行某种独立性一样，他们应当给予能源机构本着长期思考和行动做出决策的更大的回旋余地。


At the next global climate meeting (COP22 in Marrakesh in November), Morocco’s government and my team at the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network will join with other partners to co-host a “Low-Emissions Solutions Conference.”	在下届全球气候会议上（第22届联合国气候变化会议将于11月在马拉喀什召开），摩洛哥政府和我所领导的联合国可持续发展方案网络团队将与其他合作伙伴一道共同举办一届“低排放方案大会”。


This conference will bring together energy experts from UN member countries, businesses, and cities to work on highly practical approaches to deep decarbonization.	此次会议将汇聚来自联合国成员国、商界和城市的能源专家制定非常实用的深度脱碳方案。


With the Paris climate agreement now in force, we must move urgently to effective implementation.	因为巴黎气候协议已经生效，我们的当务之急是必须确保有效的实施。


A Climate Apollo Program	气候阿波罗计划


LONDON – In 1961, when the United States was faced with the threat of falling behind the Soviet Union in the space race, President John F. Kennedy called for a program – eventually known as Project Apollo – to put a man on the moon before the end of the decade.	伦敦—1961年，美国面临在太空竞赛上被苏联甩开的危险，总统肯尼迪呼吁实施一项计划——即后来的阿波罗工程（Project Apollo）——在20世纪60年代末之前将人送上月球。


The program’s clearly articulated vision – and the resources and effort mustered in its service – ensured its success.	该计划有着明确的愿景，再加上为它调集的资源和动员的努力，保证了它的成功。


Just eight years after Kennedy’s announcement, astronaut Neil Armstrong pressed his footprint into the lunar dust.	肯尼迪宣布该计划后仅仅八年，宇航员尼尔·阿姆斯特朗（Neil Armstrong）就在月球的尘土上留下了脚印。


As representatives from 196 countries prepare to gather in Paris at the end of the year to craft an agreement to tackle global warming, it is becoming clear that we need a similar project.	随着196个国家的代表准备在今年年底齐聚巴黎起草应对全球变暖问题的协定，显然我们现在我们需要一个类似的工程。


In early June, I joined David King, a former chief scientific adviser to the British government, former BP CEO John Browne, and several other co-authors in a call for a Global Apollo Program.	6月初，我和前英国政府首席科学顾问大卫·金（David King）、前英国石油公司CEO约翰·布朗（John Browne）以及其他几位合作者一起呼吁采取全球阿波罗计划（Global Apollo Program）。


Until now, the diplomatic effort to prevent dangerous climate change has focused on coordinating national cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions.	到目前为止，防止危险气候变化的外交努力集中在协调各国的温室气体减排计划上。


But what is needed is more spending, not just more coordination.	但真正需要的是增加支出，而不仅仅是更多的协调。


The decade-long effort we propose would require the whole planet to work together to make a breakthrough in the fight against climate change.	我们所提出的十年计划需要全世界齐心协力在与气候变化的斗争中取得突破。


It would seek to reduce the cost of electricity from sources that do not emit greenhouse gases below that of coal power by 2025.	我们的计划寻求在2025年让无温室气体排放的电力成本下降到煤电以下。


In order to achieve this, countries joining the program would pledge to devote at least 0.02% of their GDP toward the effort.	为了实现这一目标，加入该计划的各国需要将GDP的至少0. 02%用于这方面。


David Attenborough, the British naturalist and broadcaster, has said of the proposal, “at last, we have an authoritative, practical, and comprehensive plan that could avert the catastrophe that is threatening our planet.”	英国博物学家兼主持人大卫·艾登堡（David Attenborough）这样描述该计划：“终于，我们有了一个权威、务实而全面的计划，可以阻止正在威胁我们的星球的灾难。


Bjørn Lomborg, known for his skepticism toward traditional approaches to fighting climate change, has described this idea as “a much smarter approach and more likely to actually succeed.”	”比约恩·隆伯格（Bjørn Lomborg）因为对传统遏制气候变化方针持怀疑态度而闻名，他认为我们的想法“是更加明智的方针，也更有可能获得实际成功。 ”


Indeed, the most frequently floated proposals leave much to be desired.	事实上，最常见的建议有诸多有待改进之处。


Many in Paris will argue in favor of putting a price on carbon, which most economists believe would channel consumption away from carbon-intensive fuels.	在巴黎，许多代表将主张给碳定价，大部分经济学家认为这能够引导消费远离碳密集型燃料。


But there are doubts about whether such a policy would be political feasible.	但也有人怀疑这样的政策是否具有政治可行性。


John Watson, CEO of Chevron, recently rejected carbon pricing as unworkable.	雪弗龙公司CEO约翰·沃森（John Watson）最近指出碳定价根本不可行。


“It’s not a policy that is going to be effective, because customers want affordable energy,” he said.	“这项政策不会有效，因为客户想要的是平价能源，”他说，“它们想要更低而不是更高的能源价格。


“They want low energy prices, not high energy prices.”	”


Similarly, national leaders in the developing world – where some three billion people do not have access to affordable energy – are under immense pressure to deliver standard-of-living improvements.	类似地，发展中世界的国家领导人——大约三十亿发展中国家人民无法获得平价能源——饱受着改善人民生活水平的巨大压力。


They are likely to shy from policies that raise the cost of energy.	他们有可能厌恶提高能源成本的政策。


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for example, has called for global public investment in clean energy.	比如，印度总理莫迪呼吁增加清洁能源的全球公共投资。


“We are more likely to succeed if we offer affordable solutions, not simply impose choices,” he argues. “This requires access to more resources and better technology.”	“如果我们能够提供平价解决方案，而不是强加选择，会更有可能成功，” 他指出，“这要求能够获得更多资源和更好的技术。


A Global Apollo Program would help the world reduce its CO2 emissions and cut its energy bills.	全球阿波罗计划有助于世界减少二氧化碳排放和能源支出。


The price of solar energy is already plummeting: the National Bank of Abu Dhabi has noted that a large solar installation in Dubai could produce energy at a price that would be competitive with oil at $10 per barrel.	太阳能价格已经大幅下降：阿布扎比国民银行（National Bank of Abu Dhabi）指出，迪拜的大规模太阳能装置能够产生可以与10美元/桶的石油进行价格竞争的能源。


But there are significant obstacles to the widespread use of solar energy and other sources of renewable electricity, including a desperate need for cheaper, more efficient means of energy storage and transmission.	但大规模使用太阳能和其他可再生电力资源还有巨大的障碍，包括对更廉价、更高效的能源储存和转换方法的需要。


Currently, only 2% of the world’s investment in research and development is allocated to clean energy; at this rate, solutions to these problems are unlikely to be found anytime soon.	目前，全球研发投资中只有2%用于清洁能源； 照此速度，我们不可能很快就找到这些问题的解决办法。


The Global Apollo Program would double these investments and coordinate the effort to bridge the technological gaps, bringing forward the day when we could eliminate coal and other carbon-intensive fuels.	全球阿波罗计划将让这些投资提高一倍，并协调弥补技术缺口的努力，让我们告别煤炭和其他碳密集型燃料的日子提前。


Following the recent G-7 summit in Germany, the leaders of the world’s largest economies issued a pledge to “work together and with other interested countries to raise the overall coordination and transparency of clean energy research, development, and demonstration, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies.”	在最近的德国G-7峰会后，全球最大经济体领导人发布承诺“与其他有意国家齐心协力提高清洁能源研究、开发和示范的总体协调性透明度，突显可再生能源和其他低碳技术的重要性。


But an initiative like the Global Apollo program will succeed only if the world’s emerging powers, such as China and India, throw their weight behind it.	“但类似于全球阿波罗计划���项目只有在全球新兴力量（如中国和印度）也跟进的情况下才能取得成功。


They will have a chance to do so at the G-20 summit in Turkey in November.	11月的土耳其G-20峰会有机会实现这一点。


The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris must produce an agreement to introduce a price on carbon worldwide.	2015年巴黎联合国气候变化会议必须产生一个协定为全世界范围引入碳定价。


But that approach will not work without a coordinated strategy to reduce the cost of carbon-free energy.	但如果没有降低无碳能源价格的协调战略，这一方针就无从奏效。


If countries sign up to the Global Apollo Program as part of the agreement in Paris, the meeting might just mark one giant leap for mankind in the fight against climate change.	如果各国将签署全球阿波罗计划作为巴黎协定的一部分，那么这次会议也许将成为人类朝遏制气候变化迈出的一大步。


Cleaning Up Economic Growth	洁净的经济增长


British Prime Minister Tony Blair has promised that the G-8 meeting on July 6-8 at Gleneagles, Scotland, which he will chair, will focus on two of the most important and longstanding global problems—Third-World poverty and global warming.	英国首相布莱尔保证由他主持的，将于7月6-8日在苏格兰鹰阁（Gleneagles）举行的G8会议的主题将会围绕着两个最为重要和持久的问题展开—第三世界的贫穷和全球变暖。


For a long time, these two issues seemed to be at odds.	长期以来，这两个问题似乎就备受争议。


The developing world understandably does not want to sacrifice its growth for a global public good, especially when the United States, the richest country in the world, seems unwilling to sacrifice even a little of its luxurious life style.	发展中国家不想为了一种全球性的公众利益而牺牲自身的发展也是情有可原，特别是在美国，这个全球最富有的国家似乎不愿为此牺牲一点点自己奢侈的生活方式的情况下。


Led by Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica, a group of developing countries, a new rainforest coalition has now come forward with an innovative proposal, not only offering to commit to greenhouse-gas limits, but also showing how this can be done in a way that will promote their development.	由巴布亚新几内亚和哥斯达黎加牵头，一群发展中国家已经提出了一个颇具新意的议案，不仅主动承诺限制温室气体的排放，还表明了以何种能促进自身发展的方式来实现这些承诺。


Developing countries have long provided a vital global public good: maintaining global environmental assets.	长久以来，发展中国家就一直为我们提供着至关重要的全球公共利益：维护全球环境资产。


Their rainforests are a vast storehouse of biodiversity, and forests are major carbon sinks, reducing the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.	他们的雨林是生物多样性的巨大仓库，并且是碳的主要吸收者，能够降低大气中的二氧化碳浓度。


I served on the International Panel for Climate Change in the mid-1990’s, reviewing the scientific evidence concerning the magnitude of increases in greenhouse gasses and their economic and social consequences.	我曾于1990年代中期供职于气候变化国际委员会（International Panel for Climate Change），对关于温室气体排放增长规模的科学证据和随之产生的经济和社会影响进行评估。


At the time, there was already overwhelming evidence of a serious problem that needed to be addressed, and data since then – concerning, for example, the rapid melting of the polar ice cap – have strongly reinforced this conclusion.	那时，已经有不容忽视的证据表明一个急需解决的严重问题的存在，而自那以后的数据—如与两极的冰盖快速消融相关的数据—更是强化了这一结论。 约有近1/4的温室气体排放产生于土地使用的改变，其中又以采伐森林为主。


About a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions are from land-use change, mainly deforestation, an amount comparable to US emissions from burning fossil fuels (the US is the single largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.)	仅这一项所产生的温室气体量就和美国通过燃烧化石燃料所排放的相当。 （美国是全球温室气体的第一大排放国。


By maintaining their rainforests, tropical countries provide an invaluable global service, one for which they have so far failed to be compensated.	通过保全他们的雨林，热带国家提供了一项难以计价的全球服务，而这种服务却远没有得到应有的补偿。


But, especially after the signing of the Kyoto protocol, we can value at least part of these environmental services: carbon sequestration (that is, if they did not maintain their forests, the level of carbon concentrations in the atmosphere would be enormously higher).	但现在，特别是在《京都议定书》的签署之后，我们至少可以确定部分环境服务的价值：碳固定。 （也就是说，如果他们没有保全其热带雨林，大气中碳集中的水平会比现在高出许多。


The Kyoto Protocol has generated new markets for trading carbon emissions, such as the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). At current carbon prices, the value of carbon sequestration by tropical rainforests likely equals or exceeds the current level of international aid being provided to developing countries.	《京都议定书》还催生了一个进行碳排放交易的新市场，如“欧洲排放交易机制” (ETS)。


Biodiversity and climatic stability are global public goods.	生物多样性和气候的稳定性都是全球性的公益。


The benefits of conservation to the world as a whole far exceed the value of exploitation to a country like Papua New Guinea (PNG).	环境保护为全世界带来的益处远远超过开发巴布亚新几内亚这样的国家所带来的价值。


The PNG government would like to do the right thing, to maintain its natural capital for future generations.	巴布亚新几内亚政府想要做正确的事情，为子孙后代保全自然资本。


But officials there believe that that they have currently no choice.	但该国的官员则认为他们目前别无选择。


A huge mistake was made (for a variety of reasons) at Kyoto.	在京都（由于种种原因）已经铸成大错。


While countries can be compensated for planting forests, they cannot be compensated for avoiding deforestation.	虽然各国培植森林的行动可以获得补偿，但他们防止采伐森林的努力却不能得到补偿。


Countries like PNG would thus be doubly better off if they cut down their ancient hardwood trees and replanted.	因此像巴布亚新几内亚这样的国家如果砍掉他们古老的硬木树林再重新种植也许还更划算。


But this makes no sense economically or socially.	但这样的做法是不符合经济和社会逻辑的。


These countries should be given incentives to maintain their forests.	应该有很好的激励机制以鼓励这些国家保全他们的森林资源。


(There are, as always, technical issues to be resolved, concerning monitoring and measurement, but these can be overcome easily with modern technologies.)	（通常会遇到与监测和衡量标准有关的技术性问题，但是运用现代技术这些问题都可以迎刃而解。


At the very least, markets like ETS should credit emissions reductions that result from limiting deforestation.	）至少像ETS这样的市场应该为限制采伐森林所带来的良性结果授予相应的信用。


Without such a program, unfortunately, developing countries have neither the means nor incentives to underwrite conservation.	有人建议等到2012年《议定书》的修正案出台时再应对这一问题。 但我们等得起吗？


There are some 2.7 billion people in over 60 developing countries that are home to the world’s tropical forests. Cutting down the hardwood forests – even when they presently receive just 5% of the final price in, say, New York – is the only way people can make ends meet.	以现在森林消失的速度，仅由巴西和印度尼西亚两国所造成的温室气体集中就会抵消《京都议定书》所带来的排放削减量的近80%。


Some have suggested waiting to address this issue until 2012, when a revised protocol is supposed to come into effect.	这项新的雨林动议之所以让人印象深刻就是因为它是由发展中国家自己提出的；


But, can we wait?	它代表了提出国的创造性和社会承诺。


At currents rates of deforestation, the combined contributions to greenhouse gas concentrations from Brazil and Indonesia alone would offset nearly 80% of the emission reductions gained from the Kyoto protocol.	发展中国家似乎第一次愿意承担欧洲、日本和其他发达的工业化国家（除美国以外）为了避免一场全球性的灾难而已经承担的那种承诺。


What is so impressive about the new rainforest initiative is that it comes from the developing countries themselves; it represents their creativity and social commitment. For the first time, developing countries seem willing to undertake the kinds of commitments that Europe, Japan, and the other advanced industrial countries (except the US) have made to avoid what could be a global disaster.	例如，哥斯达黎加的经验已经表明一种环境服务（例如保全自然森林资源）


Costa Rica, for example, has already shown that a system of paying for the provision of environmental services (like maintaining natural forests) can work in ways that preserve the environment and boost the economy.	的支付体系能够既保持环境又支持经济发展。


Compensating the developing countries for providing these environmental services would be one way of substantially increasing aid – and at the same time, providing these countries with the right market incentives.	为发展中国家提供的这些环境服务进行补偿可以成为一种切实增加援助的方式—而同时，也为这些国家提供了适宜的市场激励机制。


From a global point of view, the best use of these resources is to maintain the forests, which is even possible with managed cutting.	从全球性的观点来看，利用这些资源的最佳方式是保全森林，这甚至可以通过管理下的砍伐来实现。


This is an initiative around which all countries can and should rally. In a world divided – between rich countries and the poor, between those focusing on environmental protection and those concentrating on growth – this initiative can unite us all.	这是一项所有国家都能够而且应该支持的计划—在贫国与富国之间，在专注于环境保护的国家和致力于经济增长的国家之间—这项计划能把我们都团结起来。


The G-8 leaders should heed the call.	八国峰会的领导人们应该从善如流。


A Bright Future for Clean Technology	清洁技术的光明未来


MUNICH – Observers might be forgiven for thinking that so-called clean technology's moment in the sun has passed.	慕尼黑—观察者认为所谓的清洁技术热门时刻已经过去，这情有可原。


Over the last two years, many clean-tech equity indexes have performed poorly.	在过去两年中，许多清洁技术股指数表现萎靡。


In Europe, solar power took a hit after the European Commission decided to phase out subsidies for renewable energy by 2017.	在欧洲，欧盟委员会决定在2017年取消可再生能源补贴，太阳能行业遭遇重创。


The installation of solar panels fell by nearly 60% in Germany in 2013, and by 70% in Italy.	2013年太阳能面板安装数量在德国下降近60%，在意大利下降70%。


Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, less than 30% of early-stage venture-capital-funded clean-tech deals were financed.	与此同时，在英国，只有不到30%的清洁能源计划得到了早期风险投资基金的融资。


The truth is that we have been here before.	真相是这并非第一次。


The convulsions in the clean-tech sector are simply symptoms of a cycle that characterizes emerging technologies: excitement, inflated expectations, and consolidation – ultimately followed by stability and the resumption of growth.	清洁能源行业的打击只不过是新兴技术常有的周期性现象：兴奋、预期膨胀、整合——最终则是稳定和增长复苏。


Indeed, underlying recent developments are signs of a much more significant transformation: clean tech is becoming commercially viable.	事实上，在近期发展趋势背后，有迹象表明更加重大的变局正在酝酿：清洁技术将具有商业可行性。


Confidence in the clean-tech sector's future is rooted in the need for sustainable solutions for a planet that is supporting an ever-wealthier population.	对清洁技术未来的信心植根于一项需要：为需要支持日益富有的人口的地球找到可持续方案。


Over the next 20 years, the number of middle-class consumers is expected to rise to some three billion, from 1.8 billion today. Their new lifestyles will require resources, including energy.	在未来20年，中产阶级消费者人数预计将增加到三十亿（目前为18亿）。


This surge in demand will occur at a time when finding, developing, and extracting new sources of energy and resources will be increasingly challenging and expensive.	如此需求激增恰逢寻找、开发和开采新能源和资源变得日益艰难和昂贵。


Over the last 12 years, for example, the average real construction cost of an oil well has doubled, and in recent years new mining discoveries have been few, despite the industry's best (and often expensive) efforts.	比如，在过去12年中，平均油井实际建设成本增长了一倍； 与此同时，尽管尽了最大努力，但近几年来新的矿产发现寥寥无几。


But clean-energy costs are trending in the opposite direction, ripening these solutions at a time when need – particularly in some of the world's largest developing cities – is becoming acute.	但清洁能源成本却在向相反方向发展，在需求变得日益尖锐的时候——特别是世界上一些最大的发展中城市的需求，解决方案也在变得日益成熟。


One pivotal question for the future of clean tech has been whether it needs regulatory support to thrive.	清洁技术的未来的一个关键问题是它是否需要监管支持才能繁荣。


To be sure, the withdrawal of subsidies in Europe hit the sector hard.	诚然，欧洲取消补贴极大地打击了该行业。


But, even as Germany and Italy lost their first- and second-place rankings in terms of new solar-power installations, China and Japan took their place.	但是，即使德国和意大利失去了它们在新太阳能面板安装数量的冠亚军位置，但中国和日本取代了它们。


Globally, the solar-power industry has grown at an average annual rate of 57% since 2006.	全球而言，2006年以来太阳能行业以平均每年57%的速度成长。


Regulatory support has been effective in creating demand and allowing sources of renewable supply to reach scale.	监管支持有效地制造了需求，也让可再生能源供给源形成了规模。


But such support has not always been economically efficient.	但这些支持并非总是划算的。


One lesson from the German experience is that sudden changes in regulation can create peaks and valleys in demand that are not helpful to an industry that is still emerging.	德国的经验提供了一个教训：监管的猛然变化会造成需求的波峰和波谷，这对于生处于新兴阶段的行业来说毫无裨益。


The biggest risk in many markets is not that subsidies and other supports will be withdrawn, but that the regulatory structure will not adapt as the sector develops.	许多市场的最大风险并非补贴和其他支持将被取消，而是监管结构不随着行业的发展而调整。


As industries mature, the case for policy support weakens.	随着行业的成熟，政策支持的必要性也随之下降。


And, indeed, solar power increasingly appears to be able to survive without regulatory help.	而太阳能行业确实日益表现出能够在没有监管支持的情况下存活下去。


A thriving global marketplace goes a long way toward leveling the playing field across all resource options.	繁荣的全球市场十分有利于所有资源的平等竞争。


During the last five years, dozens of solar manufacturing companies have failed, only to be replaced by stronger, more innovative, and more efficient players.	在过去五年中，数十家太阳能制造公司倒闭，取代它们的是更强大、更创新、更高效的公司。


More than one-quarter of cumulative global solar photovoltaic capacity was installed just in the past year.	全球累计太阳能光伏产能中有四分之一强是在去年建成的。


The International Energy Agency, which has been conservative regarding solar energy's prospects, now expects it to be the world's largest power source by 2050.	国际原子能机构在评估太阳能前景时向来保守，如今它预计太阳能将在2050年成为世界第一大电力来源。


Nonetheless, concerns about the future of clean tech have made new projects more difficult to finance.	尽管如此，关于清洁技术未来的担忧仍让新项目难以得到融资。


But innovative new schemes, such as clean-tech bonds and third-party financing, are changing the picture.	但创新性新机制，如清洁技术债券和第三方融资，正在改变局面。


Third-party ownership, in which a company installs and maintains solar panels, in exchange for either a set monthly rate or a fixed price per unit of power, has driven up adoption rates in California, financing more than two-thirds of new installations in 2012 and 2013.	第三方所有机制——即一家公司安装并维护太阳能面板，换取固定月费或每度电价格——促使加州太阳能使用率提高，为2012年和2013年三分之二以上新安装太阳能面板提供了融资。


Similarly, new partnerships with large industry incumbents – such as the tie-up between Daimler and Tesla and the controlling stake that Total took in SunPower – are reducing the cost of finance for smaller firms.	类似地，老牌行业巨头的新近参与——如戴姆勒和特斯拉的合作以及塔塔控股SunPower——正在降低小企业的融资成本。


Meanwhile, clean-tech companies are becoming more sophisticated and creative.	与此同时，清洁技术公司正在日益变得更加成熟而具有创造力。


An entire new industry has been created around the use of information technology to reduce energy consumption.	一个围绕使用信息技术降低能源消费的全新行业已经形成。


Some companies, such as C3 Energy, offer electric utilities software that can analyze their electrical networks to improve grid operations and asset utilization, thereby increasing profits.	一些公司，如C3能源公司（C3 Energy），提供能够分析电力网络以改善电网经营和资产利用，从而增加利润的电力行业软件。


Smart-grid hardware has been deployed widely in the past decade, and as companies figure out how to use big data and analytic tools, it will become much more important.	智能电网硬件在过去十年得到了广泛使用，而随着公司开始学会使用大数据和分析工具，它将变得更加重要。


Google's acquisition of Nest Labs for $3.2 billion is a good example of the value that companies are placing on this kind of data.	谷歌以32亿美元收购Nest Labs就是一个很好的例子，证明了公司对这类数据的看重。


All of this adds up to an industry that Bloomberg calculates reached $310 billion in investment last year.	所有这些使得该行业在去年获得3,100亿美元投资（据彭博社计算）。


This is not a “niche" segment, but an asset-intensive industry on its way to commoditization.	这不是一个“利基”市场细分，而是一个正在商品化的资产密集型行业。


Clean tech is maturing and adopting proven management practices in operations, marketing, sales, and distribution.	清洁能源正在成熟，并在经营、营销、销售和分销中逐渐采取证明可行的管理实践。


Increasingly, the industry is implementing approaches that have ensured success in other sectors, such as reducing procurement costs and deploying lean principles in manufacturing.	该行业正在日益采用让其他行业获得成功的方法，如降低采购成本和使用精益制造原理。


As clean-tech businesses continue to scale up, there will be additional opportunities to improve.	随着清洁技术企业继续壮大，将会有更多的改善机会。


The shakeout in the clean-tech industry has been tough; but it has also been typical of emerging technologies, and, by weeding out the weaker players, it has made the sector more robust.	清洁技术行业的下跌幅度很大； 但对于新兴技术来说这是常有的事，这样能够淘汰较弱的选手，让该行业更加强健。


This is a global segment meeting a growing global need.	这是一个迎合增长的全球需要的全球细分市场。


There is little room for doubt that the clean-tech industry can expect plenty of sunny days ahead.	无须怀疑，清洁技术必将迎来灿烂的未来。


Clearinghouse Over-Confidence	过度自信的清算所


CAMBRIDGE – To reduce the chance that a financial meltdown like that of 2007-2008 will recur, regulators are now seeking to buttress institutions for the longer-run – at least when they can turn their attention from immediate crises like those of Greece’s debt, America’s ceiling on governmental borrowing, and the potential eurozone contagion from sovereign debt to bank debt.	坎布里奇——为了降低再次发生2007—2008年金融危机的可能性，监管者如今正在寻求对金融机构的长期支持方案——至少当他们的注意力可以从希腊债务危机、美国国债上限危机以及潜在的欧元区主权债务危机转变为银行债务危机这样的当务之急解放出来之后是如此。


Central to their effort has been to bolster clearinghouses for derivatives – instruments that exacerbated the implosion at AIG and others in the last financial crisis.	在他们的各项努力中，最重要的便是为金融衍生品（即导致金融危机中AIG和其他机构倒闭的金融工具）设立清算所。


But a clearinghouse is no panacea, and its limits, although easy to miss, are far-reaching.	但清算所并非万能灵药，它的局限性影响十分深远的——虽然人们经常忽略这一点。


When a company seeks to protect itself from currency fluctuation, it can reduce its exposure to the target currency with a derivative (for example, it promises to pay its trading partner if the euro rises, but gets paid if it falls).	当一家公司试图保护自己免受货币波动干扰时，它可以通过衍生品减少自己在目标货币上的风险暴露（比如，它可以承诺，若欧元升值，就赔付其交易对手，而当欧元贬值时，则有交易对手赔付给它）。


Although the company using the derivative reduces its exposure to the risk of a failing euro, the derivative comes packaged with a new risk – counterparty risk.	尽管使用衍生品的公司减少了它在欧元贬值上的风险暴露，但衍生品实际上带来了新的风险——对手方风险。


The company risks that if its trading partner fails – as AIG, Bear Stearns, and Lehman did – it won’t be paid if the euro falls.	如果交易对手方倒闭——就像AIG、贝尔斯登和雷曼兄弟一样——那么该公司就会遭受对手方风险，即使欧元下跌，它也得不到赔付。


Worse, as we saw in the financial crisis, if many financial institutions have many such contracts, a rumor of insolvency can induce all of one institution’s derivative counterparties to demand collateral or payment simultaneously, triggering a run that resembles a classic bank run, which could then spread to other firms.	更糟糕的是，我们看到，当发生金融危机时，如果许多金融机构持有了太多的合约，一条破产传闻就能让某家机构的衍生品交易对手一窝蜂地要求增加抵押品或立刻赔付，从而触发类似于经典银行挤兑的挤兑，接着，挤兑会蔓延到其他公司。


To reduce the risk of runs in derivatives markets, regulators around the world are poised to require that derivatives trades be carried out through clearinghouses or exchanges.	为了减少衍生品市场发生挤兑的风险，世界各国监管者准备要求将衍生品交易纳入清算所或交易所。


The clearinghouses will have many advantages, but not as many as regulators might think.	清算所能带来诸多好处，但并不能如监管者所愿那样包治百病。


But, first, how does a clearinghouse work?	但是，首要的问题是，监管者如何起作用？


After the company needing currency-risk protection makes its euro-dollar trade with a bank, each of them turns its side of the trade over to the clearinghouse.	当需要货币风险保护的公司与银行做了一笔欧元-美元交易后，双方都会把各自的合约交给清算所。


The resulting obligations between the company and bank become obligations to and from a middleman, the clearinghouse.	公司和银行之间的权利义务关系就成了双方对中间人，也就是清算所的权利义务关系。


The clearinghouse protects itself by getting an up-front deposit from the bank (in case the bank fails in, say, 2015), and by monitoring the bank’s total “book” with the clearinghouse.	清算所如何保护自己呢？ 它将要求银行存入一笔预存款（假设银行将于2015年破产），并监控银行在清算所内的总“账目”。


When the bank wins on a derivatives trade, the clearinghouse pays the bank; when the bank loses, it pays the clearinghouse.	当银行在一笔衍生品交易中获利时，清算所就会向银行赔付； 当银行发生损失时，它将赔付交易所。


When the bank has many trades on the clearinghouse’s books, the clearinghouse is fine if these trades net out to about zero; systemic risk, regulators insist, is thereby reduced, because the financial system needn’t worry about collecting the debts, one-by-one.	当清算所的记录表明银行同时与众多对手做交易时，只要交易净结果为零，清算所就不会感到紧张； 监管者认为，这样一来，系统性风险就被减少了，因为金融体系不再需要担心如何一笔一笔计算债务。


This is true, but only for as far as the netting process goes.	这固然是正确的，但得能够相互抵消才行。


The clearinghouse also enhances transparency, because it can report its aggregate exposures to the regulator, who is better positioned to regulate a central clearinghouse than to regulate many opaque banks.	清算所还能增加透明度，因为它可以向监管者报告其总风险暴露，对于监管者来说，监管一个中央清算所比监管众多不透明的银行容易多了。


This, too, this should strengthen the financial system.	这也能增强金融体系。


But risks – many of them systemic, and many of them big – remain.	但是，风险——其中不乏系统风险，而且许多还不小——并没有消除。


Unfortunately, the clearinghouse structure obscures them.	不幸的是，清算所的结构掩盖了这一点。


Most obviously, as many trades move from the banks to the clearinghouse, the clearinghouse itself will become a systemically vital institution. It will be too big to fail.	最显然的是，随着大量交易从银行移向清算所，清算所自身将成为具系统重要性的机构，将变得太大而不能到。


Equally problematic is the fact that, while the clearinghouse and its participants can net wins and losses to reduce risk for those inside the clearinghouse, the clearinghouse does not assuredly eliminate the basic risk facing the entire financial system.	同样存在问题的是这样一个事实：清算所及其会员单位可以计算净盈利和损失，从而减少纳入清算所的交易方的风险，但清算所并不能保证消除整个金融体系所面临的基本风险。


Often, it merely transfers that risk to creditors outside the clearinghouse.	通常，这一风险只是被传递给了清算所之外的债权人。


Here’s why: Let’s imagine that a weak financial institution (say, Bank of America), has two separate contracts, one with AIG and one with Citibank.	我们来看看原因。 假设某疲软金融机构（比如美国银行）握有两张独立合约，一张的对手是AIG，另一张是花旗银行。


BofA owes $100 million to each.	美国银行欠这两者每人1亿美元。


The contract with AIG is a derivatives contract, which goes through the clearinghouse; but the contract with Citibank is another kind of contract, maybe just a regular loan, and does not go through the clearinghouse.	与AIG的合约是衍生品合约，通过清算所交易； 但与花旗银行的合约类型有所不同，比如属于常规贷款，因此并不经过清算所进行。


BofA also has a contract with, say, Bear Stearns through the clearinghouse for $100 million, with Bear Stearns on the losing end.	美国银行手上还有第三张合约（假设对手是贝尔斯登），这张合约通过清算所进行，价值1亿美元，但亏损方是贝尔斯登。


Without a clearinghouse, BofA has a $100 million asset (the $100 million that Bear owes it) and owes $200 million.	如果没有清算所，美国银行拥有1亿美元资产（贝尔斯登欠它的1亿美元）和2亿美元债务。


Having only $100 million (if these obligations are its only assets and liabilities), BofA would have to pay AIG and Citibank $50 million each.	但它手上只有1亿美元（假如上面的权利义务包括了美国银行的全部资产和负债），将赔付AIG和花旗银行各5000万美元。


Each would suffer a $50 million loss.	因此，AIG和花旗各自都将损失5000万美元。


If AIG is systemically vital, its inability to collect the full $100 million could cause it to fail.	如果AIG具有系统重要性，无法全额收回1亿美元将导致它破产。


This is where the clearinghouse protects AIG, whose winning contract with BofA nets out against Bear’s losing contract with BofA.	这时清算所可以站出来保护AIG，其与美国银行的盈利合��抵消了贝尔斯登与美国银行的亏损合约。


The clearinghouse here eliminates counterparty risk for these three, but only by transferring the risk to Citibank, which, instead of losing $50 million, ends up losing the full $100 million.	在这个例子中，清算所消除了三家机构的对手方风险，但只是将风险转移给了花旗银行，后者原本只损失5000万美元，现在，所有的1亿美元损失都要由它来承担。


In this stripped-down example, AIG, Bear Stearns, and BofA – as well as their attorneys, lobbyists, and supportive policymakers – promote the clearinghouse on the grounds that it reduces risk for its participants.	在这个简化的例子中，AIG、贝尔斯登和美国银行——以及它们的律师、游说团和支持政客——都会表扬清算所减少了对手方风险。


And, as advertised, it does — but only for its participants.	而且，正如他们所宣传的，清算所确是做到了这一点，但也只限于其会员。


Citibank, however, now loses $50 million more, because it can’t crack into the clearinghouse’s assets.	可是，花旗银行现在凭空多损失了5000万，因为它不能算成是清算所的资产。


If that extra loss pushes a systemically vital Citibank over the precipice, the clearinghouse has not reduced systemic risk as advertised.	如果额外损失把具有系统重要性的花旗银行推上了绝路，那么清算所的所谓减少系统风险的宣传也就不攻自破了。


Whether the clearinghouse reduces systemic risk depends on the relative systemic importance of those inside and those outside the clearinghouse – AIG versus Citibank in this basic example – not on the clearinghouse’s capacity to reduce risk among its members.	清算所是否减少系统风险取决于其内部单位和外部单位的相对系统重要性（在我们的例子中，就是AIG和花旗银行谁更具有系统重要性），而不取决于清算所减少其会员单位之间的风险的能力。


In this example, if Citibank is precarious and is as systemically vital as AIG, the clearinghouse has obscured that it has saved AIG only by transferring risk from the clearinghouse to Citibank, which then fails.	在我们的例子中，如果花旗银行告急，且其系统重要性不亚于AIG，那么清算所只是造成了它拯救了AIG的假象，实际上，它只是把风险从清算所转移到了花旗银行身上，并导致了后者的破产。


Much recent regulatory activity has focused on enabling, enhancing, and requiring clearinghouses for these kinds of financing arrangements.	近期，大量监管活动致力于激活和强化清算所，并要此类金融安排必须经过清算所进行。


Yes, clearinghouses offer many benefits, including greater transparency, better pricing, and better regulatory focus, and we should try to make them viable.	诚然，清算所能带来诸多好处，包括更大的透明度，更准确的定价以及更好的监管目标，我们要使得这些具有操作性。


But regulators around the world have overestimated their overall benefit.	但是监管者高估了清算所的总体好处。


Too much of what is justified as reducing systemic risk is really just offloading risk onto others.	许多被认为是减少系统风险的证据事实上只是把风险转移到了他人头上。


How Climate Action Can Make America Great	气候行动怎样能使美国强大


SINGAPORE – Climate change is the single biggest challenge facing humankind.	新加坡——气候变化是人类所面临的最大挑战。


Yet the next president of the United States – the world’s second-largest greenhouse-gas emitter and a critical actor in climate policy – does not believe it is happening, or at least that humans have a role in driving it.	但身为世界第二大温室气体排放国和气候政策关键行动者的下任美国总统不相信气候变化正在发生，或至少不相信人类在其中发挥推动作用。


If Donald Trump actually wants to “Make America Great Again,” as his campaign slogan declared, he will need to change his attitude and embrace the climate agenda.	如果唐纳德·特朗普真的希望“让美国再次伟大”，就像他在竞选口号中所宣扬的那样，他需要改变自己的态度，并且接受气候议程。


So far, the situation does not look promising.	迄今为止，形势看起来并不乐观。


Despite a mountain of scientific data, Trump claims that there is no evidence that humans contribute to global warming.	尽管有大量科学数据的支撑，特朗普依然声称人类活动导致全球变暖缺少证据证明。


He once even called climate change a “hoax,” invented by the Chinese to make US manufacturing less competitive (though he later walked back that accusation).	他甚至称气候变化是一个“骗局”，是中国人的发明，并以破坏美国制造业竞争力为目标（虽然他后来收回了这一指控）。


He has not, however, rethought his broader skepticism about human-driven climate change.	尽管如此，他并未对人类驱动气候变化的整体怀疑进行重新思考。


Reflecting this line of thinking, Trump has announced his intention to reverse carbon-emission limits for coal-fired power plants, step up fossil-fuel production, and roll back support for wind and solar power.	为了反映这种思路，特朗普已经宣布打算取消燃煤电厂的碳排放限制、加快生产化石燃料以及收回对风能和太阳能的支持。


He has also pledged to pull the US out of the global climate-change agreement concluded last December in Paris.	他还承诺要让美国退出去年12月巴黎签署的气候变化协定。


Such a reversal would be catastrophic for global efforts to tackle climate change.	这样的倒行逆施或将对应对气候变化的全球努力造成灾难性的打击。


Just as US President George W. Bush’s refusal to sign the Kyoto Protocol on climate change in 2005 initiated a spiral of rising emissions, a decision by Trump not to fulfill America’s commitments under the Paris agreement could spur others to follow suit.	正如美国总统乔治·W·布什2005年拒绝签署气候变化京都议定书造成新一轮排放激增一样，特朗普拒绝履行美国巴黎协议承诺的决定或将促使其他国家仿效。


After all, many countries are already worried about the costs of meeting their national commitments, especially at a time of sluggish economic recovery.	毕竟，履行国家承诺所需的费用已经让许多国家忧心重重，尤其是在目前经济复苏乏力的时候。


And burning fossil fuels remains, in most economic activities, cheaper than using cleaner energy (when one does not account for the relevant environmental damage).	而燃烧化石燃料在大部分经济活动中仍然比利用清洁能源更为廉价（如果不考虑相关环境破坏损失的话）。


Of course, in the longer term, burning more fossil fuels will drive up health-care costs and impede worker productivity.	当然，从长远看，燃烧更多化石燃料将推升医疗保健成本，并阻碍工人生产率的提高。


Then there are the economic and human costs of increasingly frequent and severe climate-related disasters – including floods, droughts, storms, and heat waves, all of which are already on the rise worldwide.	然后还有日益频繁和严重的气候相关灾害——包括洪水、干旱、风暴和热浪——造成的经济和人力成本，所有这些在世界范围内都呈现出上升的势头。


To be sure, Trump recently met with the former US vice president and vocal climate activist Al Gore.	可以肯定，特朗普最近会见了前美国副总统和积极气候活动家戈尔。


Nonetheless, it seems unlikely that Trump will change his tune on climate change, not least because the cabinet members he has selected are largely singing the same song.	尽管如此，特朗普似乎不太可能改变他对气候变化的看法，特别因为他所挑选的内阁成员大多秉承同样的腔调。


The good news is that he may not have to.	好消息是他可能并不需要这么做。


In fact, there are actions that Trump can take for other ends – from boosting the US economy to enhancing America’s global influence – that would also advance the climate agenda.	事实上，特朗普可以为实现其他目标而采取行动——从推动美国经济到强化美国全球影响力——但同样也可以推进气候议程。


The first such action is to increase investment in research and development in climate-friendly sectors, such as energy efficiency and storage, renewable-energy systems, and safer and smaller cars.	上述首要举措是增加对能源效率和储存、可再生能源系统以及小型安全汽车等气候友好部门的研发投资。


Technological breakthroughs in these areas – which the US is particularly qualified to realize – would be great for business.	在上述领域实现技术突破——美国最有能力实现这种突破——或将对商业发展产生重大的影响。


And building high-tech production and efficient energy sectors may be Trump’s best chance of fulfilling his campaign promise to create a large number of jobs for Americans.	而建立高科技生产和高效能源部门或将成为特朗普兑现为美国人创造大量工作岗位的竞选承诺的最佳机会。


As much as Trump might like to revive steel and coal in the so-called Rust Belt states that were crucial to his electoral victory, that is likely impossible (as is bringing back large numbers of manufacturing jobs from abroad).	尽管特朗普非常希望振兴对其竞选获胜发挥重要作用的所谓铁锈地带的钢铁和煤炭部门，但这几乎是不可能的（就像从国外带回大量制造业岗位一样）。


Indeed, coal power is already on its way out in the US, as health and environmental (not just climate) concerns force plants to shut down.	事实上， 煤电已经在逐步退出美国历史舞台，因为健康和环境（不仅限于气候）等领域的关注迫使这些州关闭工厂。


Natural-gas production, meanwhile, is at an all-time high; its 33% share in power generation now exceeds that of coal.	此外，天然气产量处于历史高位； 其在发电领域33%的占比现在已经把煤炭甩在身后。


Renewable-energy sources and nuclear power are also on the rise, a trend that is almost certain to continue.	可再生能源和核电同样在不断增长，这一趋势几乎肯定还远未结束。


To create a Rust Belt revival, Trump must capitalize on these trends, advancing a more innovative, energy-efficient approach, much like the one that is helping to support growth in the economies of California and New York.	为创造铁锈地带复兴，特朗普必须利用这种趋势，推进更加节能创新的方法，上述方法与支持加利福尼亚和纽约经济增长的策略是十分相似的。


Trump could reinforce progress in dynamic and profitable energy-efficient industries by entrenching energy efficiency in construction codes.	特朗普可以通过巩固建筑规范中的能源效率来强化动态盈利节能工业的进步。


New buildings and other infrastructure should feature energy-efficient lighting (including better use of sunlight), heating, and air conditioning.	新建筑和其他基础设施应当采用节能照明（包括更好地利用阳光）、采暖和空调系统。


There are also huge payoffs from retrofitting existing buildings for more efficient energy use.	通过改造现有建筑实现更有效的能源利用也能带来巨大的回报。


There is one more key reason why Trump, the climate-skeptic, might be convinced to sustain progress on climate action: preserving and enhancing America’s international influence.	保持和加强美国的国际影响力可能是说服气候怀疑论者特朗普支持气候行动进步的一个关键理由。


Other prominent global leaders – including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel – have expressed concern about the devastation caused by pollution and environmental degradation.	其他著名的全球领袖——包括中国主席习近平、印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪和德国总理默克尔——已经对污染和环境退化造成的破坏深表关注。


If the US repudiates its leadership role in this area, it risks considerable reputational damage.	如果美国否认在这一领域的领导作用，就可能面临相当大的信誉损失。


Global climate leadership will require the US, first and foremost, to fulfill its Paris commitments.	全球气候领导责任将要求美国首先兑现其巴黎承诺。


It is vital that Trump upholds America’s Clean Power Plan, which establishes state-by-state targets for carbon-emissions reductions, with the goal of lowering national emissions from electricity generation by one-third relative to their 2005 level by 2030.	特朗普坚持美国清洁能源计划非常重要，该计划确立了各州逐步减少碳排放目标，即到2030年将发电产生的国内排放相比2005年减少1/3。


The extension of tax credits for renewable-energy producers and consumers would go a long way toward advancing this goal.	延长可再生能源生产者和消费者的税收抵免将对实现这一目标产生极大的帮助。


But even achieving the Paris agreement’s goals will not be enough to avert a catastrophic rise in global temperature.	但即便实现巴黎协议制定的目标也不足以避免全球温度的灾难性升高。


We must overshoot our targets by advancing clean energy, clean transport, and clean industry.	我们必须通过推动清洁能源、清洁交通和清洁工业超额完成目标。


For that, American know-how and savvy will be indispensable.	要想做到这一点，美国的专业技术和领悟能力将发挥不可或缺的作用。


Trump already wants to invest in energy and infrastructure.	特朗普已经希望投资于能源和基础设施建设。


If he does so in a climate-friendly way, the US will reap enormous benefits – and so will the rest of the world.	如果他能以对气候友好的方式来推进这项工作，美国将会获得巨大的利益——同样获益巨大的还有世界其他各国。


If the mogul-turned-president does not recognize the threat that climate change poses, he should at least be able to recognize a tremendous business opportunity when he sees one.	如果这位前身是商业巨头的总统没有意识到气候变化所造成的危害，他至少应当在看到巨大的商业机会时抓住它。


Fifty Years of Climate Dithering	50年的气候犹疑


SYDNEY – In November 1965, US President Lyndon B. Johnson was presented with the first-ever government report warning of the dangers that could result from burning large amounts of fossil fuels.	悉尼——1965年11月，美国总统林登·约翰逊拿到了有史以来第一份警告大量燃烧化石燃料可能带来危险的政府报告。


Fifty years is a long time in politics, so it is remarkable how little has been done since then to address the threat posed by carrying on with business as usual.	五十年在政治领域是相当长的时限，因此政府自那以后一切照旧、几乎未采取任何措施解决危机就愈加的引人注目。


In remarkably prescient language, Johnson’s scientific advisory committee warned that releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere would lead to higher global temperatures, causing ice caps to melt and sea levels to rise rapidly.	约翰逊的科学顾问委员会极有先见之明地警告说向大气中排放二氧化碳将引发全球气温升高，从而导致冰盖融化和海平面迅速升高。 “人类在不知不觉中进行了一次超大规模的地球物理实验，”科学家们警告道。


“Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment,” warned the scientists.	“人类在短短几代人时间里燃烧了过去5亿年地球缓慢积累的化石燃料. .


“Within a few generations he is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years…The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings.”	. 二氧化碳含量升高引发的气候变化可能会给人类带来不小的损害”。


The committee’s foresight is not surprising; the existence of the greenhouse effect had been known to science since the French physicist Joseph Fourier suggested in 1824 that the earth’s atmosphere was acting as an insulator, trapping heat that would otherwise escape.	该委员会的先见之明并不出人意料； 自从1824年法国物理学家约瑟夫·傅立叶提出地球大气就像绝缘体般捕获本该散失的热量后，科学就一直承认温室效应的存在。


And in 1859, the Irish physicist John Tyndall carried out laboratory experiments that demonstrated the warming power of CO2, leading the Swedish physicist and Nobel Laureate Svante Arrhenius to predict that burning coal would warm the earth – which he saw as a potentially positive development.	而在1859年爱尔兰物理学家约翰·廷德尔通过实验室实验证明二氧化碳具有增温能力后，瑞典物理学家兼诺贝尔奖得主斯万特·阿累尼乌斯就预言烧煤会温暖整个地球——他将此视之为一种积极的现象。


Johnson’s advisers were not so Pollyannaish.	约翰逊的顾问绝非如此盲目乐观。


Their report accurately predicted that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would increase by close to 25% over the course of the twentieth century (the actual number was 26%).	他们的报告准确地预测了20世纪大气中的二氧化碳含量将增长近25%（实际数字为26%）。


Today, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is 40% higher than it was at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution – by far the highest it has been during the past one million years, as we know from drilling into the Antarctic ice.	今天，空气中二氧化碳的浓度比工业革命初期提高了近40%——根据南极冰盖的钻探记录，毫无疑问已经达到了过去一百万年来的峰值。


Furthermore, Johnson’s scientific committee rebutted objections that continue to be used today by those who deny the dangers of climate change, including the claim that natural processes might be behind the rise in CO2 levels.	此外，约翰逊的科学委员会驳斥了否认气候变化危险者今天仍在使用的反对意见，包括声称自然过程可能导致二氧化碳水平升高。


By showing that only about half of the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere, the committee proved that the earth acts not as a source of greenhouse gases, but as a sink, soaking up half of our emissions.	通过证明只有约半数燃烧化石燃料产生的二氧化碳残留在空气中，该委员会证明了地球并非温室气体的来源，而只是作为吸收器，吸收了人类半数的二氧化碳排放。


What Johnson’s advisers could not do was offer specific predictions for how much the rise in atmospheric CO2 would affect global temperature; they said they would first need better models and more powerful computers.	约翰逊内阁顾问无法提供大气中二氧化碳升高会对全球气温造成多大影响的具体预测； 他们说做出上述预测首先需要更完善的模型和更强大的电脑。


Those calculations formed the basis of the next landmark report, the 1979 “Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment,” prepared by the US National Academy of Sciences.	上述计算为下一份里程碑式的报告奠定了基础，这就是美国国家科学院1979年提交的“二氧化碳与气候：科学评估”报告。


Widely known as the Charney Report – after its lead author, Jule Charney of MIT – it is a model of careful scientific deliberation.	这份报告以主要起草者朱尔·查尼（来自麻省理工）的名字命名，堪称为严谨科学探讨的典范，被外界称之为查尼报告。


Charney’s report estimated that doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would warm the earth by about 3° Celsius – a number that is well confirmed today.	查尼报告估计大气中二氧化碳含量翻倍将使地球升温约3摄氏度——该预测的准确性今天已经得到了证实。 报告还预测海洋热容量将使全球变暖推迟数十年。


It also predicted that the heat capacity of the oceans would delay warming by several decades.	这两项结果都与该报告披露后所观察到的全球变暖情况相符。


Both findings are consistent with the global warming observed since the report’s publication.	“我们尝试但一直无法找到任何被忽略或低估的物理效应，可以将目前估测的全球变暖. .


“We have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or underestimated physical effects that could reduce the currently estimated global warming … to negligible proportions,” the report concluded.	控制在可以忽略不计的程度，”该报告最后说。 之后，全球变暖的科学证据越来越牢固；


Since then, the scientific evidence has only gotten stronger; today, the basic findings laid out in these two early reports are supported by more than 97% of climate scientists.	今天，这两份早期报告中做出的基本结论得到了97%以上气候科学家的赞同。


And yet, despite 50 years of growing scientific consensus, the warming of the earth continues unabated.	尽管50年来科学共识不断增加，但地球变暖的势头却丝毫没有减弱。


Well-funded lobby groups have sowed doubt among the public and successfully downplayed the urgency of the threat.	资金雄厚的游说团体已经在公众心目中播下了怀疑的种子，并成功淡化了上述威胁有多么紧迫。


Meanwhile, geopolitics has impeded the development of an effective global response.	此外，地缘政治阻碍了制定有效的全球对策。


The international climate negotiations that are expected to culminate in an agreement at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in November and December have been hampered by the requirement of consensus among the 195 countries participating.	195个参与国达成一致的要求也阻碍了十一、十二月巴黎联合国气候变化大会上预期将因协议的签署而达到高潮的国际气候谈判。


If action is not taken, billions of people will suffer the consequences of drought, crop failure, and extreme weather.	如果不采取行动，数十亿人将因旱灾、农作物歉收和极端天气而受害。


Eventually, rising sea levels will flood large coastal cities and destroy entire island states.	最终，海平面上升将淹没沿海大城市和摧毁整个岛国。


The hottest years since record-keeping began in the nineteenth century were 2005, 2010, and 2014, and last year’s record will almost certainly be broken again this year.	十九世纪有记录以来最炎热的年份是2005、2010和2014，而去年的纪录几乎肯定会在今年被再次打破。


It is time that world leaders put an end to 50 years of dithering.	世界领导人是时候结束50年的瞻前顾后。


They must seize the opportunity in Paris, set aside their short-term interests, and finally act decisively to avert a looming planetary catastrophe.	他们必须抓住在巴黎的机会，将短期利益搁置一边，最后为避免迫在眉睫的星球灾难而果断采取行动。


The Health Benefits of Fighting Climate Change	应对气候变化对健康的益处


LIMA – Governments often see climate change as too costly to address.	利马——政府往往认为气候变化的解决成本太过昂贵。


In fact, it is too costly to ignore.	事实却是气候变化代价太高、不容忽视。


That is why the World Health Organization (WHO), for example, has linked the prevention of disastrous climate change to “immediate health benefits and health cost savings” from the reduction of air pollution.	这解释了为什么世卫组织（WHO），举例来讲，将预防灾难性气候变化与减少空气污染所带来的“直接健康效益和成本节约”联系在一起。


The statistics are grim.	统计数据反应的情况异常严峻。


Air pollution caused more than seven million premature deaths – one in eight globally – in 2012, compared to nearly six million premature deaths from tobacco.	空气污染2012年造成七百多万人早亡——占全球早亡人数的八分之一，而烟草造成的早亡人数也才不到六百万而已。


One of the biggest causes of harm are the fine particles called PM2.5, with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers.	最大的损害来源是人们所说的PM2. 5微粒，这种微粒直径还不到2.


They wreak havoc by traveling deep into the lungs, contributing to inflammation, cancer, and respiratory infection, or by passing into the bloodstream, where they can trigger changes in blood vessels that cause heart attacks and strokes.	5微米。 它们能够深入肺部造成极大的破坏，诱发炎症、癌症、呼吸道感染，或者通过进入血液诱发血管变化，诱使心脏病和中风发作。


The combustion of diesel and coal are among the main causes of air pollution, with 3.7 million deaths attributed to outdoor fumes and 4.3 million resulting from poorly ventilated homes.	燃烧柴油和煤同是大气污染的主要原因，约有370万人死于户外烟雾，还有430万人死于室内通风不良。


Motorized transport now accounts for half of premature deaths from ambient particulate matter in the 34 OECD countries.	摩托化运输所释放的环境颗粒物现在占34个经合组织国家早亡人数的半数以上。


Coal-fired power is also the main source of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas responsible for climate change, which causes about 150,000 premature deaths annually and threatens pervasive risks this century and beyond.	燃煤发电也是造成气候变化的二氧化碳及其他温室气体的主要来源，每年造成约150,000人早亡，并且可能在本世纪及以后普遍威胁到人类健康。


To be sure, the coal industry has helped billions of people escape poverty, not least in China, where coal-fired power has underpinned the nearly 700% growth in per capita income since 1990.	可以肯定，煤炭行业已协助数十亿人摆脱贫困，尤其以中国为首，20世纪90年代以来燃煤发电已支撑人均收入实现近700%的增长。


But human health is at greater risk in countries that burn more coal.	但燃煤国家相对更有损于民众的健康。


Research for the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate last year calculated that particulate matter alone caused 1.23 million premature deaths in China – the world’s top coal-consuming economy – in 2010.	去年据经济与气候全球委员会研究测算2010年仅悬浮颗粒物一项就在世界最大的煤炭消费国中国造成123万人死亡。


Estimates for 2012 suggest that 88% of air-pollution-related deaths occur in low- to middle-income countries, representing 82% of the world’s population.	2012年的测算数据表明88%的空气污染死亡案例发生在占世界人口82%的中低收入国家。


The Western Pacific and Southeast Asian regions bear the burden of 1.67 million and 936,000 deaths, respectively.	西太平洋和东南亚地区分别有167万人和936,000人死亡。


But pollution is worsening and taking lives in high-income countries as well.	但是，日益严重的污染目前已经波及到高收入国家。


For example, PM2.5 reduces life expectancy across the European Union by eight months and, together with ozone, was responsible for 430,000 premature deaths in the EU’s 28 member states in 2011.	比方说，PM2. 5缩短全欧盟平均寿命八个月，并且和臭氧一起，在2011年造成欧盟28个成员国430,000人过早死亡。


In Britain, more than six decades after the Great Smog of 1952, PM2.5 pollution levels still persistently exceed WHO guidelines.	在1952年大雾发生60多年后，英国的PM2. 5污染水平仍持续超过世界卫生组织设定的指导原则。


The health costs of air pollution in the EU are up to €940 billion annually.	欧盟国家的空气污染成本每年高达9，400亿欧元。


The WHO recently carried out a review of the evidence on the health effects of air pollution, and found that the range of such effects is broader and occur at lower concentrations than previously thought.	世卫组织最近审查了空气污染对健康的影响，结果发现这种影响更加广泛，并出现在比以前所认为浓度更低的情况。


In addition to the well-known effects of air pollution on the lungs and heart, new evidence points to its detrimental impact on children’s development, including in utero.	除对肺和心脏等器官的影响众所周知，全新证据表明其对儿童发育，包括在子宫内的发育造成不利的影响。


Some studies even link air pollution to diabetes, a major chronic disease and health challenge in Indonesia, China, and Western countries.	某些研究甚至把空气污染和糖尿病相提并论，这种病是印尼、中国和西方国家的主要慢性病和主要健康威胁。


Despite the overwhelming evidence of health risks, many countries routinely ignore air-quality standards – as well as the emissions monitoring needed for effective regional cooperation – mainly owing to governments’ fear of their economic impact.	尽管已经掌握对健康威胁的大量证据，但许多国家仍往往忽视空气质量标准和有效区域合作所需的排放监测——主要原因是政府害怕对国内经济产生影响。


Economic models used by advisers to shape development strategy – and touted by lobbyists to influence decisions on major infrastructure projects – exclude the human cost of air pollution and the long-term benefits of measures to reduce it.	顾问们借以打造发展战略的经济模型——该模式得到说客的吹捧以影响重大基础设施项目决策——根本没有考虑空气污染造成的人员成本，也没有考虑减排措施带来的长期好处。


Any solutions to the problems posed by air pollution will require not only new economic models, but also integrated measures by local, national, and international governments.	解决空气污染问题不仅需要新的经济模式，还需要地方、国家和国际政府联手采取对策。


Cutting emissions from urban transport, for example, will involve city mayors, local planners, and national policymakers working together to induce compact development.	比方说，城市交通减排将涉及市长、地方规划人员和国家决策者促进紧凑发展的共同努力。


Fortunately, government support for effective action is growing.	所幸的是，政府正不断加大对有效措施的支持。


Air pollution is at the top of China’s domestic agenda, following the choking smog dubbed “airpocalypse” that engulfed its major cities in January 2013 and Chai Jing’s recent documentary (and social-media phenomenon) “Under the Dome,” which exposed the catastrophic health impacts of air pollution.	在2013年1月吞没各大城市的被称为“空气末日”的令人窒息的烟雾以及柴静揭露空气污染灾难性健康影响的最新纪录片（及社交媒体现象）“穹顶之下”问世后，空气污染已经在中国国内议程中广受关注。


Indeed, China’s government has closed some of the country’s dirtiest power plants, resulting in a drop in coal consumption last year for the first time since 1998.	事实上，中国政府已关闭了国内某些污染最重的电厂，从而造成煤炭用量从1998年来首次呈现下降趋势。


A recent draft resolution on air pollution and health for the World Health Assembly (the WHO’s governing body) suggests that countries should “underscore” a link between air pollution and climate change.	世界卫生大会（世卫组织管理机构）关于空气污染与健康问题的最新决议草案建议各国应“注重”空气污染和气候变化之间的联系。


Countries should adopt the WHO air-quality guidelines and highlight additional opportunities for greener urban planning, cleaner energy, more efficient buildings, and safer walking and cycling.	各国应采纳世卫组织空气质量指导方针，并着重强调在绿色城市规划、清洁能源、高效建筑及安全步行和骑车等领域的更多机会。


A formal acknowledgement by governments of the immediate health-related benefits of cutting carbon-dioxide emissions can tip the scales toward greater progress on climate change, air pollution, and human health simultaneously.	政府正式承认削减二氧化碳排放所带来的直接健康福利可以在气候变化、空气污染和人类健康方面同时取得更大的进步。


Policymakers everywhere should recognize the economic opportunities – and the political benefits – that such an outcome promises to deliver.	各国决策者都应认识到上述结果所带来的经济机会和政治利益。


Beyond Carbon Metrics	除去碳指标


BERLIN – Over the last ten years, “climate change” has become almost synonymous with “carbon emissions.”	柏林——过去10年来，“气候变化”几乎成了“碳排放”的同义词。


The reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, measured in tons of “carbon equivalents” (CO2e) has emerged as the paramount objective in the quest to preserve the planet.	以“碳当量”（CO2e）吨数为计量标准的大气温室气体的减少已逐渐成为地球保护事业的主要目标。


But such a simplistic approach cannot possibly resolve the highly complex and interconnected ecological crises that we currently face.	但要靠如此简单的做法解决我们目前面临的极度复杂并互相联系的生态危机是不可能的。


Global environmental policy’s single-minded focus on “carbon metrics” reflects a broader obsession with measurement and accounting.	全球环境政策一心一意的关注碳指标恰恰反映了人们对会计和计量标准普遍的痴迷态度。


The world runs on abstractions – calories, miles, pounds, and now tons of CO2e – that are seemingly objective and reliable, especially when embedded in “expert” (often economic) language.	世界运行靠的是卡路里、英里、磅以及现在的碳当量吨数等等貌似客观可靠的抽象概念，尤其当它们与“专业”（往往涉及经济领域）的语言相结合。


As a result, we tend to overlook the effects of each abstraction’s history, and the dynamics of power and politics that continue to shape it.	结果导致我们往往忽视了这些抽象概念的历史影响，以及仍在对其造成影响的权力和政治等动态因素。


One key example of a powerful and somewhat illusory global abstraction is the gross domestic product (GDP), which was adopted as the main measure of a country’s economic development and performance after World War II, when world powers were building international financial institutions that were supposed to reflect relative economic power.	国内生产总值（GDP）就是一个强大但有点虚幻的全球抽象概念的重要例子，它在二战结束后逐渐成为衡量国家经济发展和绩效的主要指标，当时世界大国建立的国际金融体系本来应该反应其各自相对的经济力量。


Today, however, GDP has become a source of widespread frustration, as it fails to reflect the realities of people’s lives.	但今天，GDP已经成为民众失望的普遍来源，因为它反应不了现实的民众生活。


Like a car’s high beams, abstractions can be very illuminating; but they can also render invisible what lies outside their light.	抽象概念可以像汽车的远光灯一样给人带来很大启发； 但同时也能让光柱以外的地方更加难以看到。


Nonetheless, GDP remains by far the dominant measure of economic prosperity, reflecting the obsession with universality that accompanied the spread of capitalism worldwide.	尽管如此，GDP仍然是经济繁荣最主要的衡量标准，这反映了人们对在全球资本主义扩张中应运而生的普遍标准的迷恋态度。


Complex, nuanced, and qualitative imaginings that reflect local specificities are simply not as appealing as linear, overarching, and quantitative explanations.	反映当地具体状况的复杂、细致和定性的想象总是没有线性、总体和定量的解释吸引力那么强。


When it comes to climate change, this preference translates into single-minded support for solutions that marginally reduce “net” carbon emissions – solutions that may impede broad economic transformations or undermine communities’ capacity to define specific problems and develop appropriate solutions.	在涉及气候变化的问题上，人们的这种偏好体现为一心一意支持让“净”碳排放边际递减的解决办法——这样的办法可能会阻碍全面经济转型、或影响人类找出具体问题并制定恰当的解决办法。


This approach can be traced back to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, where climate policy embarked on a rocky and violent path of forgotten alternatives.	这种做法可以追溯到1992年在里约热内卢召开的地球峰会，从那时起气候政策开始成为这条暴力崎岖之路上被遗忘的替代品。


In the course of the last quarter century, at least three critical mistakes were made.	在过去四分之一世纪里，至少出现了三项关键性错误。


First, governments introduced the CO2e unit of calculation to quantify in a consistent manner the effects of disparate greenhouse gases, such as CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide.	首先，政府引入了碳当量的计量单位来计算二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化碳等不同温室气体所造成的排放效果。


The variations among these gases – in terms of their warming potential, how long they remain in the atmosphere, where they appear, and how they interact with local ecosystems and economies – are profound.	上述气体在方方面面有着很大的不同——包括它们潜在的升温能力、在大气中的停留时间、出现的地域、以及与当地生态系统和经济的互动模式等。


A single unit of measure simplifies matters considerably, allowing policymakers to pursue one blanket solution aimed at meeting a specific overarching target.	确定单一的计量方法极大地简化了问题，使得决策者可以推行一套全面的解决方案，旨在实现特定的总体目标。


Second, the UN climate change convention emphasized “end of pipe” techniques (methods aimed at removing contaminants from the atmosphere).	其次，联合国气候大会强调“末端”技术 （即以清除大气当中的污染物为目标的方法）。


This enabled decision-makers to deflect attention away from the more politically challenging objective of limiting the activities producing those emissions in the first place.	这导致决策者成功转移了人们对更富政治挑战性的目标的注意力，具体来讲就是从根本上限制那些制造排放的人类活动。


Third, policymakers decided to focus on “net” emissions, considering biological processes involving land, plants, and animals together with those associated with the burning of fossil fuels.	第三，决策者决定以“净”排放量为重点，将涉及土地、植物和动物的生物进程与化石燃料燃烧相关进程同时加以考量。


Just like industrial facilities, paddy fields and cows were treated as emissions sources, and tropical forests, monoculture tree plantations and bogs as emission sinks.	水田和牛像工业设施一样被视为排放源，而热带雨林、单树种人工林和沼泽则可以吸收排放。


Policymakers began to seek solutions that involved offsetting emissions abroad, rather than cutting them at home (or at the source).	决策者开始在国外寻找抵消排放的方法，而不是全心全意减少国内排放。


By 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was introduced, “more flexibility” was the order of the day, and trading in emissions certificates (or permits to pollute) was the preferred policy option.	到1997年京都议定书签订时，“增强灵活性”成为流行一时的风尚，而交易排放证书（或排放许可证）则是首选的政策选项。


Nearly two decades later, the effort to offset emissions is not only entrenched in climate politics; it has also made its way into the broader environmental-policy debate.	将近20年后，抵消排放的努力不仅在气候政治中根深蒂固； 而且已经进入到涉及面更广的环境政策探讨。


New markets for so-called “ecosystem services” are emerging all over the world.	世界各地正迅速出现所谓的“生态系统服务”新市场。


For example, “wetland mitigation banking” in the United States is one of the older such markets.	例如，美国的“湿地缓和银行”就是最早出现的此类市场。


It entails the preservation, enhancement, or creation of, say, a wetland or stream that offsets the adverse impacts of a planned project on a similar ecosystem elsewhere.	它涉及保存、强化或创设湿地或溪流，以抵消某计划项目对其他地方类似生态系统所造成的负面影响。


This is done by issuing certificates that can be traded.	人们通过发放可交易证书来实现这一目标。


“Biodiversity offsetting” schemes work in much the same way: A company or individual can purchase “biodiversity credits” to offset their “ecological footprint.”	生物多样性抵消计划的作用方式也大体相同：企业或个人可以购买“生物多样性积分”，以便抵消其碳足迹的影响。


If these schemes sound a little too convenient, that is because they are.	如果上述计划听起来似乎过于便利，这其实是实际情况。


In fact, they are based on the same faulty concept as emissions trading, and in some cases, they actually translate biodiversity and ecosystems into CO2e.	事实上，它们与排放权交易有着同样的概念错误，而且在某些情况下，它们实际将多样性和生态系统转化为二氧化碳当量。


Instead of changing our economic system to make it fit within the planet’s natural limits, we are redefining nature so that it fits within our economic system – and, in the process, precluding other forms of knowledge and real alternatives.	我们不仅没有改变经济体系使之适应地球的自然限度，反而重新定义自然以使其适应我们的经济系统——并且在这个过程中排除了其他形式的知识和真正的选项。


Now, in the wake of last December’s climate summit in Paris, the world is on the verge of taking yet another wrong turn, by embracing the idea of “negative emissions,” which assumes that new technologies will be able to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.	现在，在去年12月召开的巴黎气候峰会后，世界很快又会采取另外一项错误举措，即采纳所谓的“负排放”理念，即假定新技术能够将二氧化碳从大气中清除。


Yet such technologies have yet to be invented, and even if they were, their implementation would be highly risky.	但这样的技术还没有发明出来，并且即使真的发明了，它们的实施也是非常危险的。


Rather than pursue proven solutions – leaving fossil fuels in the ground, moving away from industrial agriculture toward agro-ecology, creating no-waste economies, and restoring natural ecosystems – we are counting on some miraculous innovation to save us, deus ex machina, just in the nick of time.	我们不仅没有推行成熟的解决方案——即将化石燃料留在地下、从农业产业化转向农业生态化、创建零废物经济及恢复自然生态系统——反而指望某些神奇的创新能在关键时刻神使鬼差地救我们于水火。


The folly of this approach should be obvious.	这种做法的愚蠢应当是显而易见的。


If carbon metrics continue to shape climate policy, new generations will know only a carbon-constrained – and, if they are lucky, a low-carbon – world.	如果碳指标继续影响气候政策，新的一代就只会见到一个碳约束——而且如果他们足够幸运，低碳的——世界。


Instead of pursuing such a simplistic vision, we must pursue richer strategies aimed at transforming our economic systems to work within – and with – our natural environment.	我们不能追求这样一个简单目标，而必须实行旨在改变经济体系以适应——并配合——自然环境的更为丰富的政策。


For that, we will need a new way of thinking that spurs active engagement to reclaim and conserve the spaces where alternative approaches can grow and flourish.	为了实现这一目标，我们必须树立一种全新思维方法，积极夺回并保护替代方法的繁荣发展空间。


It will not be easy, but it will be worth it.	实现这一目标不会轻而易举，但却值得为此付出代价。


Climate Change and Water Security	气候变化与用水安全


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released alarming data on the consequences of global warming in some of the world’s poorest regions.	政府间气候变化问题小组近期发布了令人担忧的数据，该数据是关于全球变暖在世界一些最穷困地区所造成的后果。


By 2100, one billion to three billion people worldwide are expected to suffer from water scarcity.	到2100年，世界范围内十亿至三十亿的人口将遭受水荒。


Global warming will increase evaporation and severely reduce rainfalls – by up to 20% in the Middle East and North Africa – with the amount of water available per person possibly halved by mid-century in these regions.	全球变暖将加剧蒸发并且使降雨量严重减少，在中东和北非会达到百分之二十。 这使得到世纪中期这些地区人均可用水量可能减半。


This sudden scarcity of an element whose symbolic and spiritual importance matches its centrality to human life will cause stress and exacerbate conflicts worldwide.	某种元素（其象征及精神的重要性与其对人类生活的中心一致）的突然缺乏，将造成过分的紧张并且将加剧世界范围内的冲突。


Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia will be the first to be exposed.	非洲、中东及中亚将是首批发生冲突的地区。


The repercussions, however, will be global.	但是，其影响是世界性的。


Yet this bleak picture is neither an excuse for apathy nor grounds for pessimism.	然而这幅凄凉的画面既不是冷漠的借口，亦不是悲观的理由。


Conflicts may be inevitable; wars are not.	冲突可能是不可避免的，但战争却不是。


Our ability to prevent “water wars” will depend on our collective capacity to anticipate tensions, and to find the technical and institutional solutions to manage emerging conflicts.	我们防止“水战争”的能力将取决于预见紧张局势、找到控制出现冲突的技术上及制度上的解决办法的集体能力。


The good news is that such solutions exist, and are proving their efficacy everyday.	好消息是这种解决办法是存在的，并且每天都在证明其功效。


Dams – provided they are adequately sized and designed – can contribute to human development by fighting climate change and regulating water supply.	大小和设计适宜的大坝可以通过抗击气候变化并调节供水而对人类发展做出贡献。


Yet in a new context of scarcity, upstream infrastructure projects on international rivers may impact water quality or availability for neighboring states, thus causing tensions.	然而，在短缺的新含义中，国际性河流的上游基础建设可能影响水质或邻国的水供应，从而造成紧张局势。


River basin organizations such as that established for the Nile, Niger, or Senegal rivers help facilitate dialogue between states that share hydraulic resources.	为尼罗河、尼日尔河或塞内加尔河建立的河流流域组织可以推动分享水力资源的国家之间的对话。


By developing a joint vision for the development of international waterways, these regional cooperation initiatives work towards common ownership of the resource, thereby reducing the risk that disputes over water use will escalate into violence.	通过发展开发国际水路联合设想，这些区域性的合作措施争取资源共有，从而减少了用水争议升级为暴力的风险。


Most international waterways have such frameworks for dialogue, albeit at different stages of development and levels of achievement.	大多数国际水路具备了对话的框架，虽然发展阶段和成就有所不同。


If we are to take climate change predictions seriously, the international community should strengthen these initiatives.	若我们严肃对待气候变化预言，国际社会需加强这些措施。


Where they do not exist, they should be created in partnership with all the countries concerned.	如果没有这些措施，则需通过与所有相关国家合作而创立。


Official development assistance can create incentives to cooperate by financing data-collection, providing technical know-how, or, indeed, by conditioning loans on constructive negotiations.	官方发展协助可以通过为数据收集筹措资金、提供技术诀窍，或者通过为建设性的谈判决定贷款而为合作创立动机。


Yet international water conflicts are only one side of the coin.	然而国际用水冲突仅是事物的一方面。


The most violent water wars take place today within rather than among states.	如今所发生的最激烈的水战争是在国家之内而不是在国家之间。


A dearth of water fuels ethnic strife, as communities begin to fear for their survival and seek to capture the resource.	当各群落开始为其生存担忧并且寻求夺取资源之时，出现了水缺乏的种族冲突。


In Darfur, recurrent drought has poisoned relations between farmers and nomadic herdsmen, and the war we are helplessly witnessing today follows years of escalating conflict.	在达尔福尔，周期性发生的干旱损害了农夫与牧民之间的关系。 我们无能为力地目睹的战争随着连年不断加剧的冲突而来。


Chad risks falling prey to the same cycle of violence.	乍得也有陷入同样的暴力周期的危险。


It is thus urgent to satisfy populations’ most basic human needs through local development initiatives.	因此，通过本地发展措施以满足人们的最基本需求是很紧迫的。


Rural hydraulic projects, which ensure access to water for these populations over large stretches of land, can prove to be efficient conflict prevention tools.	农村的水力工程确保了大片土地上人口的用水，可以是防止冲突的有效工具。


Secured grazing corridors are being established with the help of modern satellite imagery to orient nomads and their herds to appropriate areas.	通过现代卫星图为牧民及牧群确定适宜地区的帮助而建立安全的放牧走廊。


Such initiatives provide rare opportunities for dialogue and collaboration between rival communities.	这些措施为竞争群落之间的对话及合作提供了难得的机会。


The key is to anticipate the need for action before tensions escalate to the point of no return.	关键是在紧张升级到极限点以前预测到行动的必要。


Water consumption also must be addressed.	用水也是必须解决的问题。


Agriculture accounts for more than 70% of water use in the world.	农业用水占了世界用水70%以上。


Agronomical research and technical innovations are crucial to maximizing water efficiency in this sector, and they must be taken much further.	对于将农业用水效率提高到最大程度而言，农事研究及技术创新至关重要，而且必须进一步予以推动。


But addressing scarcity will inevitably imply revising agricultural practices and policies worldwide to ensure their sustainability.	但是处理水资源短缺将不可避免地意味着世界范围内修改农业惯例及政策，以确保其持续性。


The development challenge no longer solely consists in bringing agricultural water to deprived areas.	发展挑战不再仅仅存在于将农业用水引入缺乏的地区。


As the dramatic shrinkage of the Aral Sea, Lake Chad, and the Dead Sea illustrate, it now requires preserving scarce natural resources and ensuring their equitable distribution among conflicting needs.	由于咸海、乍得湖、死海巨大收缩的例子，现在需要保存稀有的自然资源并且确保不一致需求间的公正分配。


Responsible use will require adequate economic incentives.	负责任的使用需要适当的经济鼓励。


In West Africa or the Middle East, Central Asia or India, this, too, can contribute to abating clashes over water.	在西非或中东，中亚或印度，此措施可以为减少用水冲突做出贡献。


Given the unprecedented scale of the threat, business as usual is not an option.	由于空前规模的威胁，一切照常不是应该的选择。


The Cold War came to a peaceful end thanks to realism, foresight, and strength of will.	冷战由于现实主义、远见及意志的力量而和平结束。


These three qualities should be put to work if our planet is to be spared major water wars.	为了避免地球上发生大规模水战争，那么就应该让这三个特质发挥作用。


This global challenge also demands innovation in global governance, which is why we support the creation of a UN Environment Agency, endowed with the legal and financial resources needed to tackle the issues at hand.	这个全球性的挑战亦需对全球性管理进行改革，这就是我们支持创立联合国环境署，并且赋予其解决当前问题所需的法律及财政资源的原因。


Humanity must begin to resolve this water dilemma.	人类必须开始解决这个用水两难处境。


Waiting is not part of the solution.	等待是不能解决问题的。


The Right Price for Preserving Our Climate	正确定价，保护气候


WASHINGTON, DC – When world leaders convene in Paris this week for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, their task will be to reach a global agreement on curbing greenhouse-gas emissions.	华盛顿—本周，全世界领导人齐聚巴黎参加联合国气候变化会议，他们的任务是达成一个全球协定降低温室气体排放。


A successful outcome, demonstrating that countries can work together for the good of the planet, would send a powerful message of hope to the world – and to the people of Paris, who remain unbowed after the recent terrorist attacks.	成功的结果需要证明各国能够齐心协力为了地球的利益而努力，它将给全世界——以及在最近的恐怖袭击中不屈不挠的巴黎人民——带来强有力的希望信号。


Climate pledges will be made on the basis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), or commitments to the reduction of emissions worldwide.	气候承诺将在国家自主贡献预案（INDC）或降低全世界排放承诺的基础上做出。


I believe that the price of emissions should be at the center of these pledges.	我认为排放的定价应该是这些承诺的核心。


Achieving a decline in greenhouse-gas emissions at the lowest possible cost requires a revolution in energy use and production.	以最低可能代价实现温室气体减排需要能源使用和生产方面的创新。


Gradual, predictable, and reliable increases in energy prices would provide strong incentives for consumers to reduce their energy bills.	渐进、可预测并可靠地提高能源价格能为消费者提供强大的激励减少其能源账单。


At the same time, the right carbon price would enable a smooth transition away from fossil fuels by encouraging investments in technological innovation.	与此同时，正确的碳定价能鼓励科技创新投资，从而实现远离化石燃料的平稳转型。


That is why the International Monetary Fund’s staff have recommended a three-part strategy on carbon fuel: “price it right, tax it smart, and do it now.”	因此，国际货币基金组织（IMF）建议实施一套由三部分组成的碳燃料战略：“正确定价、巧妙征税、现在做起”。


Each component is essential.	每个部分都很关键。


First, setting the right price for fossil fuels means taking into account their true environmental costs.	首先，为化石燃料制定正确价格意味着要考虑它们的真正的环境成本。


Prices should pass on to end users the full cost not only of production and acquisition, but also of the damage – including air pollution and climate change – caused by intensive reliance on fossil fuels.	定价必须将所有成本都转嫁给最终用户，不仅包括生产和购买成本，也包括密集依赖化石燃料所导致的伤害成本——如空气污染和气候变化。


A fairer carbon price will drive energy savings and boost demand for cleaner fuels and “greener” investments.	更公平的碳定价将促使能源储蓄、提振对更清洁的燃料和更“绿色”的投资的需求。


Second, the necessary change in prices would be achieved by taxing energy, using tools that are both practical and efficient.	其次，价格的必要变化应该通过对能源征税实现，采用务实又有效的工具。


The best option is to build a carbon charge into existing fuel taxes and apply similar charges to coal, natural gas, and other petroleum products.	最佳选择是在现有燃料税之外增加碳费，对煤炭、天然气和其他石化产品都这样做。


The revenue implications would be significant.	由此带来的收入影响将十分可观。


If large emitting countries were to impose carbon prices of $30 per ton of CO2, they could generate fiscal revenues amounting to about 1% of their GDP.	如果排放大国为每吨二氧化碳定价30美元，就能产生相当于GDP的1%左右的财政收入。


These revenues could be used to manage the overall fiscal burden of climate action, as well as to finance cuts in taxes on labor and capital that distort economic activity and harm growth, or to reduce deficits where needed.	这笔收入可以用于管理气候行动的总体财政负担，也可以用来降低扭曲经济活动和妨碍增长的劳动和资本税或者用于在需要的时候降低赤字。


In short, carbon pricing is about “smart” taxes, not higher taxes.	简言之，碳定价事关“巧”征税而不是增税。


Smart taxes should be phased in gradually to allow households and firms time to adjust and for new technologies to come on stream.	巧妙征税应该分阶段逐渐实施，给家庭和企业作出调整的时间，也给新技术形成趋势的时间。


Gradual and tailored adjustment is particularly important for developing economies, many of which make little contribution to global emissions.	渐进而有针对性的调整对于发展中经济体来说尤其重要，许多发展中经济体几乎完全不曾参与碳排放。


Time may be necessary, in many cases, to ensure that social safety nets are in place to protect low-income households and to provide retraining programs for workers in energy-intensive industries.	在许多案例中，时间是保证建立社会安全网以保护低收入家庭和为能源密集型行业的工人提供再培训计划的必要条件。


This approach would also allow for climate investments to be financed through private capital flows.	这一方针也将让气候投资通过私人资本流获得融资。


Third, there is no time to lose: policymakers need to act immediately.	第三，时间已不容浪费：决策者需要立刻采取行动。


Given the slump in energy prices, there has never been a better time to undertake the transition to smart, credible, and effective carbon pricing.	能源暴跌是一次千载难逢的良机，应该利用它来推进巧妙、可信、高效的碳定价转型。


Nor should countries wait for others to move first.	各国也不应该坐等其他国家先���动。


Work at the IMF has shown that a fair amount of carbon pricing is in many countries’ national interest – even ignoring adverse climate effects on other countries – because it would help resolve major domestic environmental problems.	IMF的研究表明，公平的碳定价符合许多国家的国家利益——即使忽略对其他国家的负面气候影响也是如此——因为这有助于解决主要的国内环境问题。


According to the World Health Organization, outdoor air pollution causes more than three million premature deaths a year.	据世界卫生组织的数据，室外空气污染每年导致三百万以上的人过早死亡。


And early action is essential to avoid the need for much more drastic – and costly – efforts later.	而及早采取行动对于避免延后行动所带来的难度——以及成本——倍增至关重要。


Ahead of the Paris summit, more than 160 countries submitted emissions mitigation pledges.	在巴黎峰会前，160多个国家递交了减排承诺。


By implementing these commitments, countries will substantially reduce projected future global warming.	通过实施这些承诺，各国将极大地降低预期未来全球变暖幅度。


The challenge now is to deliver on these pledges.	现在的挑战是履行这些承诺。


This is why we need a concerted push for carbon pricing.	因此，我们需要合作为碳定价。


In Paris, a select group of leaders who are true champions of carbon pricing will issue a call for action.	在巴黎，一个由真正的碳定价领导人组成的小组将会发出行动倡议。


The Carbon Pricing Panel, led by the IMF and World Bank, will further increase the policy momentum at the national, regional, and municipal levels.	以IMF和世界银行为首的碳定价委员会将进一步推动加大国家、地区和市政水平上的政策力度。


In addition to public-sector efforts, we also need the robust engagement of financial institutions and markets.	除了公共部门的努力，我们还需要金融机构和市场的强力参与。


Hedging instruments such as so-called catastrophe bonds can help insure against the increasing risk posed by natural disasters.	对冲工具，比如所谓的灾难债券（catastrophe bonds），有助于为自然灾难所带来的日益增加的风险提供保险。


Other financial instruments, such as “green” stock indices and “green” bonds, can help reallocate investment to sectors that support environmentally sustainable growth.	其他金融工具，比如“绿色”股票指数和“绿色”债券，有助于将投资配置给支持环境可持续增长的部门。


Here, too, carbon prices that are predictable and sufficiently high will be essential to guide investment choices.	在这方面，可预测、足够高的碳定价也是指引投资选择的不可或缺的因素。


There is a lot at stake this week in the City of Light.	本周的光之城攸关人类命运。


Paris recently experienced humanity at its worst.	巴黎刚刚经历了人性中最丑恶的一面。


The climate summit will be an opportunity to show it at its best.	气候峰会是一次向巴黎展示人性中最美好一面的机会。


Climate Change and the Catholic Church	气候变化和天主教会


ROME – Pope Francis is calling on the world to take action against global warming, and many conservatives in the United States are up in arms.	罗马—教皇方济各呼吁世界采取行动应对全球变暖，而许多美国保守派坚决反对。


The pope should stick to morality, they say, and not venture into science.	教皇应该坚持坚守道德问题，他们说，而不应该进入科学领域。


But, as the climate debate unfolds this year, most of humanity will find Francis’s message compelling: we need both science and morality to reduce the risk to our planet.	但是，随着今年气候争论的展开，大多数人将发现教皇的呼吁不容忽视：我们同时需要科学和道德降低地球的风险。


The first point to note is that an overwhelming majority of Americans agree with Francis’s call for climate action.	第一个关注点是，绝大部分美国人同意方济各关于气候行动的呼吁。


Unfortunately, their views are not represented in the US Congress, which defends Big Coal and Big Oil, not the American people.	不幸的是，他们的观点没有在美国国会中得到代表。 美国国会捍卫大煤炭公司和大石油公司的利益，而不捍卫美国人民的利益。


The fossil-fuel industry spends heavily on lobbying and the campaigns of congressmen such as Senators Mitch McConnell and James Inhofe.	化石燃料业投入巨资进行游说活动和为米奇·麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）和詹姆斯·英霍夫（James Inhofe）等参议员的选战服务。


The world’s climate crisis has been aggravated by America’s democratic crisis.	世界气候危机因为美国的民主危机而进一步加剧。


In a survey of Americans conducted in January 2015, an overwhelming majority of respondents (78%) said that, “if nothing is done to reduce global warming,” the future consequences for the US would be “somewhat serious” or “very serious.”	2015年的一份美国人调查现实，压倒性多数受访者（78%）说“如果不采取任何行动遏制全球变暖，”对美国的未来后果将是“比较严重”或“非常严重”的。


Roughly the same proportion (74%) said that if nothing is done to reduce global warming, future generations would be hurt “a moderate amount,” “a lot,” or “a great deal.”	相当比例（74%）的受访者说，如果不采取任何行动遏制全球变暖，子孙后代将受到“一些程度”、“相当程度”和“严重程度”的伤害。


Perhaps most tellingly, 66% said that they would be “more likely” to support a candidate who says that climate change is happening and who calls for a shift to renewable energy, while 12% would be “less likely” to support such a candidate.	也许最能说明问题的事，66%的受访者说他们“更有可能”支持宣称气候变化正在发生和呼吁采取行动转向可再生能源的候选人，只有12%的受访者“更不可能”支持这类候选人。


In March 2015, another survey examined the attitudes of US Christians, who constitute 71% of Americans.	2015年的另一份调查考察了美国基督徒（占人口比例71%）的态度。


The responses were reported for three groups: Catholics, non-Evangelical Protestants, and Evangelicals.	受访者分为三类：天主教徒、非福音派新教徒和福音派新教徒。


These groups’ attitudes mirror those of Americans more generally: 69% of Catholics and 62% of mainline Protestants responded that climate change is happening, with a smaller majority of Evangelicals (51%) agreeing.	这些群体的态度更一般地映射出美国人民的态度：69%的天主教徒和62%的主流新教徒表示气候变化正在发生，福音派教徒对此表示同意的比例则为略占多数（51%）。


Majorities in each group also agreed that global warming will harm the natural environment and future generations, and that reducing global warming would help the environment and future generations.	每个群体的大多数还同意全球变暖会伤害自然环境和子孙后代，遏制全球变暖有助于环境和子孙后代。


Which minority of Americans, then, opposes climate action?	那么，哪些美国少数群体反对气候行动呢？


There are three main groups.	主要有三个群体。


The first are free-market conservatives, who seem to fear government intervention more than climate change.	第一个群体是自由市场保守派，他们似乎担心政府干预甚于担心气候变化。


Some have followed their ideology to the point of denying well-established science: because government intervention is bad, they tell themselves that the science simply cannot be true.	一些该思想的追随者甚至否认铁一样的科学：因为政府干预是坏的，所有他们告诉自己科学也不可能是真的。


The second group comprises religious fundamentalists.	第二个群体是原教旨主义者。


They deny climate change because they reject earth science entirely, believing the world to be newly created, contrary to the overwhelming evidence of physics, chemistry, and geology.	他们否认气候变化是因为他们完全拒绝地球科学，他们相信世界会被重新创造，完全不顾物理学、化学和地质学的如山铁证。


But it is the third group that is by far the most powerful politically: oil and coal interests, which contributed hundreds of millions of dollars to the 2014 campaign.	但目前第三个群体才是政治上力量最大的群体：石油和煤炭利益集团，2014年，他们投入数亿美元用于选战。


David and Charles Koch, America’s biggest campaign financiers, are simply oilmen out to multiply their gargantuan wealth, despite the costs to the rest of humanity.	美国最大的政治献金者大卫和查尔斯·科奇（David and Charles Koch）兄弟是石油商，他们只顾让自己的巨额财富翻倍，丝毫不顾其他人类。


Perhaps they are true climate deniers as well.	也许他们也是真正的气候否认者。


Then again, as Upton Sinclair famously quipped, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”	而厄普顿·辛克莱尔（Upton Sinclair）有句著名的讽刺：“让一个人理解某些东西很难，如果他的薪水取决于他不理解这些东西的话。 ”


Francis’s right-wing critics perhaps come from all three groups, but they are at least partly funded by the third.	方济各的有一批拼着可能来自所有这三个群体，但他们至少部分地有第三个群体的资助。


When the Pontifical Academies of Sciences and Social Sciences and some of the world’s top earth and social scientists met at the Vatican in April, the libertarian Heartland Institute, supported over the years by the Koch brothers, mounted a fruitless protest outside of St. Peter’s Square.	教宗科学和社会科学院（Pontifical Academies of Sciences and Social Sciences）以及一些世界顶尖地球和社会科学家4月份在梵蒂冈召开会议时，自由派的哈兰学会（Heartland Institute，多年来一直接受科奇兄弟的支持）在圣彼得广场外阻止了一场徒劳的示威。


The scientists at the Vatican meeting took extra care to emphasize that climate science and policy reflect fundamental principles of physics, chemistry, geology, astronomy, engineering, economics, and sociology, key parts of which have been well understood for more than 100 years.	前往梵蒂冈与会的科学家格外关注强调了气候科学和政策反映了物理学、化学、地质学、天文学、工程学、经济学和社会学的基本原理，其中的关键部分一百多年前便已被人们很好地认识到了。


Yet the pope’s right-wing critics are as mistaken in their theology as they are in their science.	但教皇的右翼批评者在神学方面与在科学方面一样错误百出。


The claim that the pope should stick with morality betrays a basic misunderstanding of Roman Catholicism.	他们宣称教皇应该坚守道德领域，这是对罗马天主教廷的根本误解。


The Church champions the marriage of faith and reason.	教会标榜的是信仰与理性的结合。


At least since the publication of Thomas Aquinas’s Summa Theologica (1265-74), natural law and the Golden Rule have been viewed as the fundamental pillars of the Church’s teachings.	至少从托马斯·阿奎那的《神学大全》（Summa Theologica，1265—1274年）出版以来，自然定律和黄金规则（Golden Rule）就被认为是教会理论的基本支柱。


Most people know that the Church opposed Galileo’s advocacy of Copernican heliocentrism, for which Pope John Paul II apologized in 1992.	大部分人都知道，天主教会反对伽利略对哥白尼日心说的支持，教皇保罗二世为此在1992年进行了道歉。


But many are unaware of the Church’s support for modern science, including many important contributions to biology, chemistry, and physics by world-leading Catholic clerics.	但许多人不知道天主教会对现代科学的支持，包括许多世界领先的天主教牧师在生物学、化学和物理学方面做出的重要贡献。


Indeed, the founding of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences traces its origins back more than 400 years, to the Academy of Lynxes (Accademia dei Lincei), which inducted Galileo in 1611.	事实上，教宗科学院的前身可以追溯到400等多年前的猞猁学院（Accademia dei Lincei），伽利略1661年开始在该学院任职。


Francis’s purpose, of course, is to marry modern science, both natural and social, with faith and morality.	当然，方济各的目的不是将现代科学——包括自然科学和社会科学——与信仰和道德联系起来。


Our hard-won scientific knowledge should be used to promote human wellbeing, protect the vulnerable and the poor, preserve Earth’s fragile ecosystems, and keep faith with future generations.	我们好不容易获得的科学知识必须用于促进人类福祉、保护弱势群体和穷人、保护地球脆弱的生态系统、守信于子孙后代。 可续可以揭露人类引起的环境危机；


Science can reveal the environmental dangers caused by humanity; engineering can create the tools to protect the planet; and faith and moral reasoning can provide the practical wisdom (as Aristotle and Aquinas would have said) to choose virtuously for the common good.	工程学可以创造保护地球的工具； 信仰和道德理性可以提供实践智慧（如亚里士多德和阿奎那所言），让我们做出符合共同利益又合乎道德的选择。


The Vatican gathering in April included not only world-leading climate scientists and Nobel laureates, but also senior representatives of the Protestant, Hindu, Jewish, Buddhist, and Muslim faiths.	4月的梵蒂冈会议不但包括了世界领先的气候科学家和诺贝尔奖得主，也包括了来自新教、印度教、犹太教、佛教和穆斯林等各种信仰的高级代表。


Like Francis, religious leaders of all the world’s major religions are urging us to take wisdom from faith and climate science in order to fulfill our moral responsibilities to humanity and to the future of Earth.	和方济各一样，全球各大主要宗教的宗教领袖敦促我们从信仰和气候科学中汲取智慧，以旅行我们对人类和对地球未来的道德责任。


We should heed their call.	我们应该听从他们的召唤。


The Adaptation Imperative	适应问题


NAIROBI – In the run-up to the recent United Nations meeting on climate change in Lima, Peru, much of the world’s attention focused on how strongly countries would commit to a framework for cutting greenhouse-gas emissions.	内罗毕—在最近的秘鲁利马联合国气候变化会议准备期间，全世界的注意力集中在了各国将就减少温室气体排放的问题作出多么强的承诺。


Governments’ commitment to such a framework, after all, is vital to ensure that the agreement to be signed in Paris in December will keep global temperatures from rising more than 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels.	毕竟，政府对这一框架的承诺对于确保12月的巴黎协议能够让全球气温升温幅度限制在前工业化水平以上2℃之内至关重要。


The good news is that the Lima “Call for Climate Action” made sufficient progress to enable preparations for a comprehensive climate deal in Paris.	好消息是利马的“气候行动号召”取得了重大进展，足以为在巴黎达成全面气候协议做好准备。


But it also left many questions unresolved – a shortcoming that was reflected in discussions on adaptation.	但利马仍留下了许多未解决的问题——关于适应（adaption）的讨论就反映了这一不足。


Though the new emphasis on this important topic is welcome, how to deliver the funding, technology, and knowledge that countries, communities, and ecosystems need to adjust to climate change requires further articulation.	尽管对这一重要话题的新强调值得欢迎，但如何筹集资金、技术和知识以使国家、社会和生态系统能够适应气候变化仍有待进一步解决。


Even if we limit the rise in global temperatures, climate change is here to stay.	即使我们能限制住全球气温的升高，气候变化也会继续发生。


Communities are already facing more extreme and frequent droughts, floods, and other weather events.	各国社会已经开始面临更加极端和频繁的旱灾、水灾和其他气候事件。


These consequences will only intensify.	这些后果将继续恶化。


Yet the UN Environment Programme’s first adaptation report, released in Lima, showed that the world remains wholly unprepared to cover the costs of adaptation.	但在利马发布的联合国环境署首份 适应报告表明，世界对于覆盖适应成本完全没有准备。


And those costs will be far higher than was previously thought.	这些成本将远高于我们此前所设想的。


According to the report, even if the temperature target is met, the cost of adaptation will reach 2-3 times the previously anticipated $70-100 billion per year by 2050 (an increase of as much as fivefold is possible, though less likely).	根据该报告，即使气温目标实现，适应成本仍将比此前所预计的至2050年供700—1,000亿美元高1—2倍（甚至有可能高四倍，但可能性较低）。


If global temperatures exceed the two-degree ceiling significantly, adaptation costs could reach double the worst-case figures, placing a crippling burden on the world economy.	如果全球气温大幅超过两摄氏度的上限，适应成本将达到最坏情形数字的两倍，世界经济将不堪重负。


If world leaders needed another compelling reason to reach a deal in Paris that keeps global temperatures below the target, this is it.	如果世界领导人还需要其他理由才愿意在巴黎达成将全球气温限制在该目标以下的协议的话，上面的计算就是了。


The burden of adjustment will be borne by everyone.	调整的成本将由我们每一个人来承担。


But it will be heaviest for developing countries, least-developed countries, and Small Island Developing States.	但发展中国家、最不发达国家和小型发展中岛国的负担最重。


Though international funding will be available, costs will fall largely to countries, with governments forced to divert scarce resources from development projects to adaptation initiatives.	尽管可以获得国际资金，但成本主要将落在国家头上，政府将被迫将宝贵的资源从发展工程挪给适应项目。


To be sure, the world is making some progress toward addressing adaptation needs.	诚然，在解决适应需要方面，世界正在进步。


Adaptation funding from public sources reached $23-26 billion in 2012-2013.	2012—2013年，来自公共资源的适应资金达到了230—260亿美元。


According to a recent assessment by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, global financial flows for mitigation and adaptation measures amounted to $340-650 billion in 2011-2012.	根据联合国气候变化框架公约的最新评估，2011—2012年用于移民和适应措施的全球金融流为3,400—6,500亿美元。


Furthermore, pledges at the Lima conference by Australia, Austria, Belgium, Colombia, Norway, and Peru bring the Green Climate Fund to nearly $10.2 billion.	此外，在利马会议上，澳大利亚、奥地利、比利时、哥伦比亚、挪威和秘鲁承诺为绿色气候基金（Green Climate Fund）注资近102亿美元。


And the impact of climate change is increasingly, though still inadequately, being factored into national and local budgets.	气候变化的影响正在逐渐扩大，但仍不足以纳入国民和地方预算的考虑因素。


But much more financing will be needed to prevent a funding gap after 2020.	但要防止2020年后出现资金缺口，我们还需要大量融资。


The Green Climate Fund, for example, is supposed to reach $100 billion per year – ten times higher than it is now – in the next five years.	比如，绿色气候基金计划在未来五年每年筹资1,000亿美元——比当前水平高十倍。


Commitments on adaptation in the Paris agreement would go a long way toward closing this gap.	巴黎协议中的适应承诺将极大地有利于填补这一缺口。


The international auctioning of emissions allowances and allowances in domestic emissions-trading schemes, a carbon tax, revenues from international transport, a surcharge on electricity transmission, and financial transaction taxes could generate as much as $220 billion per year in additional revenues.	国际排放许可拍卖和本国碳排交易机制、碳税、国际转移支付收入、输电附加费和金融交易税将能产生每年2,200亿美元的新增收入。


Of course, funding is not the only component of a successful adaptation strategy.	当然，融资绝非成功的适应战略的唯一要素。


As the adaptation report emphasizes, closing gaps in technology and knowledge is also crucial.	联合国适应报告强调，填补技术和只是缺口也很关键。


Many technologies that could help countries adapt to the consequences of climate change already exist.	已有很多技术能够帮助各国适应气候变化的后果。


For example, by planting scientifically engineered crops that grow faster, farmers can harvest them before, say, cyclone season, which will become increasingly violent as global temperatures rise.	比如，种植生长更快的科学转基因作物可以让农民抢在（比如）飓风季之前收获，而随着全球气温的上升，飓风的破坏力越来越大。


But there remain significant barriers to adoption – barriers that governments should dismantle through a combination of incentives, regulatory reform, and institutional upgrading.	但仍然存在巨大的适应壁垒——政府应该通过激励、监管改革和制度升级相结合的手段移除这些壁垒。


The benefits of such action would extend beyond increased climate resilience.	这些行动的好处远不止于增加气候恢复力。


Accelerating harvests would mean higher, more reliable production with less labor – a formula for stronger, more stable livelihoods.	加速收获意味着用更少劳动力获得更高更可靠的产量——这可以带来更高、更稳定的生活水平。


Policymakers should thus pursue integrated solutions that combine climate-change adaptation and mitigation with broader societal concerns, including development.	因此，决策者应该追求整合方案——将气候变化适应和移民与更广泛的社会问题（如发展）结合起来。


Knowledge would offer similarly monumental benefits.	知识也能起到类似的动力推动作用。


Science magazine recently published research suggesting that universal education, by giving populations the appropriate intellectual tools and skills they need, is the single most efficient mechanism for adapting to climate change and reducing fatalities associated with extreme weather events.	《科学》杂志最近发表了一项研究，认为全民教育可以让人民获得必要而适宜的知识工具和技能，因而是适应气候变化、降低极端天气事件致命伤害的最有效的机制。


International support on adaptation – incorporating financing, technology, and knowledge – could go a long way toward advancing countries’ sustainable-development aspirations.	对适应的国际支持——结合融资、技术和知识等各种手段——极大地有利于推动各国的可持续发展雄心。


World leaders should recognize this – and establish adaptation as an integral part of the global climate-change agreement to be reached in Paris.	世界领导人应该认识到这一点——并将适应作为欲在巴黎达成的全球气候变化协议的重要部分。


Some argue that the global economy cannot afford adaptation.	有人指出，全球经济无法承担适应成本。


But, as the latest evidence shows, delaying action will mean higher costs later.	但是，最新证据表明，拖延行动的会在随后造成更大的代价。


If we truly want to build a sustainable, prosperous, and equitable future, we cannot afford to wait.	如果我们真的想要建设可持续、繁荣、平等的未来，就不能再等了。


Breaking Europe’s Climate-Change Stalemate	打破欧洲的气候变化僵局


LONDON – Europe has a strong tradition as a leader in the fight against climate change.	伦敦—欧洲有充当遏制气候变化领导者的强大传统。


Lately, however, the continent has reached an ideological impasse over how to address the problem, with environmental sustainability and growth often portrayed as being mutually exclusive.	但是，最近，欧洲大陆遇到了关于如何解决这一问题的意识形态僵局，环境可持续性和经济增长常常被描述为水火不容。


If Europe is to remain an environmental leader, as well as a center of innovation and competitiveness, it will have to abandon its ideological rigidness and embrace realistic, pragmatic solutions that can deliver environmental benefits without sacrificing economic development.	如果欧洲想要保持环境领导者的地位，又不失去创新和竞争力中心的地位，就必须抛弃僵化的意识形态，采取现实、务实的办法，实现环境收益又不致牺牲经济发展。


The challenges posed by climate change are real, and the consequences of inaction are impossible to ignore.	气候变化带来的挑战是实实在在的，不作为的风险也是不可忽视的。


At the same time, there is a growing demand for energy and a desperate need for a long-term exit from the ongoing economic crisis.	与此同时，能源需求日益高涨，找到走出当前经济危机的长期办法也十分紧迫。


There is no single, easy solution that addresses both of these imperatives.	没有简单易行的办法可以一举解决这两大难题。


Reining in global warming while ensuring economic growth will require a balanced portfolio of solutions, including renewable energy and increased energy efficiency.	在遏制全球变暖的同时确保经济增长需要平衡的方案组合，包括可再生能源和增加能源效率。


Essential among such solutions is carbon capture and storage.	这些方案的关键在于碳捕捉和储存（carbon capture and storage，CSS）。


CCS technology captures carbon dioxide at the source of its emission, compresses it, and stores it permanently underground.	CCS技术在你排放源头捕捉二氧化碳，进行压缩然后永久存储于地下。


In doing so, it provides an important bridge between our modern economy, which relies heavily on carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and a future in which CO 2 emissions are greatly reduced.	这为严重依赖碳密集的化石燃料的现代经济和二氧化碳排放量大幅下降的未来之间架设了一道桥梁。


This provides the means for maintaining a competitive industrial sector while simultaneously combating global warming.	它提供了在保持有竞争力的工业部门的同时遏制全球变暖的途径。


To be sure, as with any innovation, there are questions about the technology's viability.	平心而论，与所有创新一样，CCS技术的可行性存在问题。


Some question the scale of the investment needed to install and maintain the systems necessary for capturing and storing CO 2.	一些人质疑建立和维持捕捉和储存二氧化碳所需要的系统必须投入大量资金。


It is important to note, however, that these costs pale in comparison with the far greater costs of reducing CO2 emissions without CCS.	但是，指出一点很重要：这些成本与在没有CCS技术的情况下降低二氧化碳排放的巨大成本比起来根本不值一提。


According to the International Energy Agency, for example, a ten-year delay in deploying CCS would increase the cost of decarburizing the power sector by €750 billion ($880 billion).	比如，根据国际能源署的数据,，CCS部署推迟十年将让电力部门增加7,500亿欧元的去碳化成本。


The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been unequivocal in its insistence that reducing CO 2 emissions and diminishing dependence on fossil fuels is more urgent than ever.	联合国气候变化政府间委员会毫不含糊地坚持减少二氧化碳排放以及降低化石燃料依赖比以往任何时候都紧迫。


It has made it clear that CCS, the only technology that can capture at least 90% of the CO2 emissions from the world's largest producers, must be a part of the solution.	它明确表示，CCS必须成为解决方案的一部分。 CCS是唯一一种可以捕捉全球最大二氧化碳制造者至少90%的排放量的技术。


Beyond Europe's borders, governments and businesses are already forging ahead.	在欧洲之外，政府和企业已经开始起头并进了。


In Canada, the world's first full-scale CCS project, Boundary Dam, came onstream in October 2014, proving that the technology is viable and ready to be deployed.	在加拿大，世界首个全规模CCS工程——边界大坝（Boundary Dam）已于2014年10月开始运转，证明了该技术可行并做好了部署的准备。


The United Arab Emirates has initiated the world's first large-scale CCS project in the iron and steel sector.	阿联酋启动了全球钢铁行业中的首个大规模CCS工程。


China continues to show great interest in the technology, and is collaborating with the United States to develop its CCS capabilities.	中国一直表现出对这项技术的浓厚兴趣，并正在与美国合作发展期CCS技术能力。


Europe cannot afford to lag behind.	欧洲不可以落后。


Energy-intensive industries directly support four million jobs across the continent.	能源密集型行业直接支持了欧洲大陆400万个工作岗位。


Investing in CCS would help preserve Europe's economic base by securing and creating jobs and protecting vital industries.	投资于CCS有助于通过确保和增加工作岗位、保护关键行业捍卫欧洲的经济基础。


It would help to realize a vision of Europe that supports both sustainability and growth – a vision that is clearly in line with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's priorities of creating jobs, sustaining growth, and developing a competitive energy union.	它有助于实现支持可持续性和发展的欧洲愿景——这一愿景显然与欧盟委员会主席容克的优先目标（创造就业岗位、维持增长和发展有竞争力的能源联盟）相一致。


The continent's largest petroleum companies, and equipment suppliers, are ready to invest what is needed to reduce CO 2 emissions.	欧洲大陆的最大石化公司以及设备提供商已开始投资于降低二氧化碳排放所需要的项目。


But, in order for that to be possible, realistic policies and strategies are needed.	但是，为了让降低二氧化碳成为可能，我们需要现实的政策和战略。


CCS has been recognized at the highest political level as a part of the European Union's 2030 Climate and Energy framework and the European Energy Security Strategy.	CCS已被纳入欧盟2030年气候和能源框架以及欧洲能源安全战略，获得了政治最高层的认可。


But it is time to translate recognition into concrete action.	但欧洲应该将认可转化为具体行动。


That, in turn, requires investment incentives, improved carbon pricing, and an upgrade to the emissions trading system.	这反过来需要投资激励、改进碳定价、升级碳排交易系统。


A game-changing solution presupposes substantial political will; it is essential that European leaders show that they know what needs to be done.	局面改变方案需要强大的政治意愿； 欧洲领导人表现出他们明白需要做什么，这一点至关重要。


Sustainable growth need not be an oxymoron.	可持续增长不必是矛盾。


But to achieve it, Europe must overcome the ideological stalemate that is paralyzing the environmental debate.	要实现它，欧洲必须克服让环境争论陷入瘫痪的意识形态僵局。


To reconcile our environmental priorities with continued growth, we must act realistically, pragmatically, and – above all – immediately.	要让我们的环境要务与持续增长相契合，就必须现实地、务实地以及——最重要的——立刻展开行动。


Why Climate Change Is an Education Issue	为何气候变化是一个教育问题


NEW YORK – Climate change affects us all, but we still are not acting as quickly as we should to address its causes, mitigate the damage, and adapt to its effects.	纽约—气候变化影响我们所有人，但我们仍在尽量快地采取行动以治理气候变化的根源、减轻它的伤害，并适应它的影响。


Many people don’t understand the risks climate change poses to global economic and social structures.	许多人不理解气候变化给全球经济和社会结构所造成的风险。


And, sadly, many who do understand are dismissive of the far-reaching benefits a global shift to sustainability and clean energy would bring about.	并且，悲哀的是，许多理解这一风险的人并没有对朝向可持续性和清洁能源的全球转型所能带来的意义深远的好处引起重视。


According to a recent Pew study, seven out of ten Americans classified as political independents were not very concerned that climate change would hurt them.	据最新皮尤（Pew）研究，七成被认为是政治独立的美国人不太关注气候变化可能伤害到他们的问题。


Worse still, Yale University researchers recently found that 40% of adults worldwide have never even heard of climate change.	更糟糕的是，耶鲁大学研究者最近发现，全球40%的成年人从来没有听说过气候变化。


In some developing countries, such as India, that figure climbs to 65%.	在一些发展中国家（比如印度），这一比例高达65%。


These figures are discouraging, but they can be improved.	这些数字令人沮丧，但可以改进。


The Yale study concluded that, “educational attainment tends to be the single strongest predictor of public awareness of climate change.”	耶鲁大学的研究推论道，“教育程度是公共对气候变化的认识的最强指标。


By investing in quality education, we can set the next generation on the right path to addressing this global problem.	”通过投资于高品质教育，我们可以为下一代铺就一条解决这一全球问题的正确道路。


Education and climate action work together in three ways.	教育和气候行动通过三个方面共同作用。


For starters, education fills knowledge gaps.	首先，教育填补知识空白。


Understanding how climate change is already having an impact on one’s life can have practical benefits.	理解气候变化已经给一个人的生活造成了多大的影响很有实际意义。


This is especially true for poor populations that are most vulnerable to crop failures and natural disasters, such as landslides and floods, caused by climate change.	对于最容易受到庄稼欠收和气候变化造成的自然灾害（如山体滑坡和洪水）影响的穷人群体来说尤其如此。


Populations that must rebuild from scratch after each new catastrophe miss out on opportunities for rapid development.	每次遭遇新灾难都必须从头重建家园的群体失去了快速发展的机会。