Making matters worse, Israeli politicians remain committed to further enlargement of Israel’s West Bank settlements.	更糟的是，以色列的政治家依然坚持进一步扩大以色列的西岸解决方案。


Pushed to the wall in this way, many Palestinians are beginning to see no other option for fulfilling their national aspirations than radical tactics.	被这样逼到了墙角之后，许多巴勒斯坦人已经开始看不到除了极端策略之外，他们还能有任何其他选择来实现自己的国家梦想。


Given that this risks renewed violence, it is critical that Israel’s regional partners and international actors understand that Palestinians will not be diverted from their strategic objective of achieving an independent state.	考虑到这些风险重新恢复了暴力，以色列的地区伙伴和国际行动者们应该懂得巴勒斯坦人不会偏离他们要建立一个独立国家的战略目标，这一点十分重要。


The Palestinian people will never abandon their national struggle.	巴勒斯坦人永远也不会放弃他们建国的努力。


Both Israelis and Palestinians must understand that the mere application of force will never be enough to achieve their long-term ends.	以色列人和巴勒斯坦人必须懂得，仅仅诉诸武力永远不足以取得他们的长远目标。


What is needed is a viable option for the opposing party to adopt in order for violence not to be deployed.	为了避免使用暴力，他们需要的是一个反对方能够采纳的可行性选择。


Although force sometimes has its uses, a stable and lasting peace can be delivered only by an integrative, compromise solution.	虽然有时候武力的确有它的作用，但只有整合的妥协性的解决方案才能赢得稳固持久的和平。


Conflict resolution, if it is to be successful, requires channeling the energy generated by conflict toward constructive and nonviolent alternatives.	如果要成功地解决冲突，就需要把冲突所激发出的力量引向建设性的，非暴力的其他选择。


This diversion of the energy of war can take place at any stage of the cycle of escalation, but if preventive peace building is not launched at the first sign of trouble, and problems remain unaddressed as the conflict intensifies (especially if it turns violent), some type of intervention will be needed.	战争激发的力量牵制可能发生在整个逐步升级过程里的任何一个阶段，但是一旦在困境产生的第一时刻没有预防性地营造和平，而且随着冲突加剧（尤其是如果转化成暴力的时候）问题依然没有解决，就需要某种干预了 。


Only then can conciliation, mediation, negotiation, arbitration, and collaborative problem-solving processes establish themselves.	在那之后，才能有调解，调停，谈判，仲裁和共同解决问题的过程。


In the end, reconstruction and reconciliation are the only viable means to bring stability, since it cannot be imposed.	最终重建和和解将是带来稳定的唯一可行性方式 ，因为稳定不能被强加给冲突地区 。


None of this is surprising. But it begs the question of why there has not been a more concerted and concentrated focus on transforming the situation in Gaza and Palestine.	这一切都��令人惊奇，但它回避了这样一个问题：为什么外界还没有更加一致地集中关注如何改变加沙和巴勒斯坦的局势。


An international protectorate for the area to protect the Palestinians from their own more dangerous elements, the Palestinians from the Israelis, and perhaps even the Israelis from themselves, has been proposed, but has received scant acknowledgement.	已经有人提议在这一地区建立一个国际保护区来保护巴勒斯坦人不受他们中间危险份子和以色列人的影响，甚至也许保护以色列人不受他们自身的影响，但是却几乎无人对此作出响应。


It is this lack of a coordinated attempt to structure an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians – a structure based on an inclusive, interdisciplinary, and systemic approach that can shift the variables and lead to a peace that both peoples regard as equal and fair – that most concerns those of us who work in international crisis resolution.	缺乏一种协调的努力来促成巴以之间达成协议—一种以广泛的，跨领域的，系统化的途径为基础的机制，这一途径能够转化可变的力量，引导出一种能够平等公正地对待两个民族的和平—这一点正是让我们这些致力于解决国际危机的人最为担心的地方。


One key element in building up a structure for reconciliation must be economic growth.	建立和解机制的一个关键因素肯定在于经济增长 。


As the World Bank has emphasized repeatedly, there is a strong correlation between poverty and conflict.	正如世界银行反复强调的那样，在贫困和冲突之间有着密切的关系。


So bridging the human dignity deficit, the divide between haves and have-nots, will be essential to reaching any viable political settlement between Palestinians and Israelis.	因此，要想在巴以之间达成任何可行的政治解决方案，必须要缩短人的尊严之间的距离，加强贫富之间的交流。


Yet the efforts here are piecemeal – and thus insufficient to offer real hope for better lives.	但这样的努力是零零星星的，因此不足以为更好的生活提供真正的希望。


Palestinians and Israelis need to establish viable dialogues across the huge social fissures that divide them, as well as dialogues between the authorities and ordinary people who live in a state of confusion about what is being done in their name.	巴勒斯坦人和以色列人需要跨越将他们分割开来的巨大社会鸿沟来建立可行性对话，当局和普通人之间也需要对话，这些普通人为用他们的名义去做的事情感到困惑不解。


Trust needs to be rebuilt if we are to help the parties understand how to overcome past enmities.	如果我们将要帮助各方懂得如何克服过往的敌意，需要重建信任。


Only the beginning of public trust will allow problems to be correctly diagnosed and addressed.	只有存在公众间的信任，才能正确地诊断和处理问题。


Of course, Israel’s need for security must be understood by all sides, but confidence-building measures are needed from all sides as well.	当然，各方必须理解以色列的安全需求，但是各方也同样需要建立信任的措施。


What is now needed most of all is a clear message that dialogue, not violence, is the way forward in these very tense times.	现在最需要的就是一个清晰的信息：是对话，而不是暴力，是这些非常时刻里的前行之路。


In Gaza, mankind’s basic morality is at stake.	在加沙，人类的基本道德危如累卵。


The suffering and wanton destruction of people’s lives, the despair and absence of human dignity in this region have gone on for too long.	苦难和肆无忌惮地毁灭人的生命，绝望和缺失人类尊严在这一地区已经持续得太久。


The Palestinians of Gaza – indeed, all those across the region who lead blighted lives without hope – cannot wait for new administrations or international institutions to act.	加沙的巴勒斯坦人—实际上，任何在这个地区过着黯淡无光，毫无希望的生活的人—不能等待新的政府或国际机构来采取行了动。


If the Fertile Crescent is not to become a futile crescent, we must wake up and find the moral courage and political vision for a quantum leap in Palestine.	如果肥沃的新月不打算变成无望的新月，我们必须醒悟过来，为实现巴勒斯坦的大跨越找到道德勇气和政治愿景。


Humanizing the Human Genome Project	让人类基因组工程人性化


COLD SPRING HARBOR – Since the human genome was first sequenced in 2000, genome science has accelerated at a remarkable rate.	冷泉港—自2000年人类基因组首次被排序以来，基因组科学便开始了日新月异的进展。


Rapid advances in DNA-sequencing technology mean that affordable decoding of the human genome is not far away.	DNA测序技术的快速进步意味着我们不久就能负担得起人类基因组的解码了。


In fact, human genomes could be sequenced for as little as $1,000 in the next few years.	事实上，不出几年，你只要花1000美元出头，就能获得人类基因组序列。


Unfortunately, the current biomedical research establishment is entirely unprepared for such a scenario.	不幸的是，当前生物医学研究完全没有对此做好准备。


Researchers often believe that their mission is to uncover new biology and genetics, and that someone else will translate them to the clinical arena.	研究者总是认为，他们的任务是揭示新生物和遗传学，至于将生物和遗传学转化为临床成果，那是其他人的事情。


Accordingly, many geneticists have worked on “big-science” genomics, including genome-wide association studies focused on common genetic variation in the human species.	据此，许多遗传学家从事着“大科学”基因组学，包括专注人类普遍遗传变异的全基因组相关研究。


But it is widely known that certain mutations can run in families, increasing dramatically the risks of certain diseases – for example, breast cancer, sickle-cell anemia, and cystic fibrosis.	但是，众所周知，某些变异可以发生于家族中，显著增加罹患某些疾病的风险——比如乳腺癌、镰状细胞贫血和囊细胞纤维症。


Unfortunately, many human molecular geneticists have abdicated any responsibility for trying to decrease the overall burden of such diseases.	不幸的是，很多人类分子遗传学家完全没有承担起任何减轻此类疾病总体负担的责任。


While this trend has many causes – most of which have been debated extensively – one very important factor is rarely discussed.	这一趋势的根源是多样的，其中许多广受争议，但一个非常重要的因素鲜被论及。


Scientific research – and biomedical research in particular – largely resembles a race.	科学研究——特别是生物医学研究——与竞赛十分相似。


Human geneticists, like big-game hunters, specialize in finding disease genes – the “prize.”	人类基因科学家就像是紧盯着大猎物的猎手，专长于寻找致病基因，即“奖品”。


Once they succeed, they usually do not continue to develop their findings; instead, they move on to their next target.	一旦成功，他们通常就不会继续开发自己的发现； 相反，他们会把注意力转向下一个目标。


Today, scientists are rewarded for how many papers they publish, and in which journals.	如今，科学家因发表多少论文、在那些刊物上发论文论高下。


In the United States, several major genome-sequencing centers exist primarily to conduct research – including the Centers for Mendelian Genomics, which seek to find the genetic basis of “simple” Mendelian disorders (diseases caused by a single mutation in the structure of DNA).	在美国，几大主要基因测序中心的存在主要是为了研究——包括致力于寻找“单一”孟德尔病（由DNA结构中的单一突变引起的疾病）的孟德尔遗传学中心（Centers for Mendelian Genomics）。


Many other countries are undertaking similar programs.	其他许多国家也有类似计划。


But the discoveries and published papers rarely benefit the people who enable this research by donating their blood and other tissue samples.	但这些发现和发表的论文并没有给贡献血液和其他组织样本从而让研究得以进行的人带来好处。


As Michael Nielsen discusses in his recent book Reinventing Discovery, the “publish or perish” mentality that dominates the field means that many substandard or incomplete papers are published, while those people who are supposed to benefit from the research are often little more than an afterthought.	迈克尔·尼尔森（Michael Nielsen）在其新书《重新发明发现》（Reinventing Discovery）中指出，“要么发表，要么沉沦”（publish or perish）心态主导研究领域意味着许多次等或不完备的论文被发表出来，而本应从研究中获益的人群并没有得到优先考虑。


Indeed, research volunteers rarely receive their genomic data, which betrays the trust that participants place in researchers to use their findings not only to increase the stock of scientific knowledge, but also to deliver actionable results.	事实上，研究志愿者很少有收到自己基因组数据的，这辜负了参与者对研究者的信任——希望研究结果不仅能被用于增加科学知识储量，还能产生可起诉的结果。


The personal genomics and biotechnology company 23andMe has created a useful interface for returning results, which could easily be built upon to deliver complete genome data to participants – as long as the sample collection and sequencing are performed to a sufficiently high clinical standard.	个人基因组和生物技术公司 23andMe公司创造了一种有用的界面来返回结果，利用这些结果，可以很容易地将完整基因数据传给参与者——只要样本收集和测序符合充分高的临床标准。


The company’s model laudably calls for research participants to help in the analysis of their own genomes, thereby relieving researchers of the burden of returning all results at once.	该公司的模式值得称赞——它呼吁研究参与者为分析自身基因组提供帮助，从而减轻研究者立刻返回所有结果的压力。


With expanding knowledge, analyzing genomes becomes easier.	随着知识的扩展，分析基因组变得越来越容易了。


The hope is that, as technology develops, more researchers will recognize the importance of returning results – especially those that could have a significant medical impact – to participants.	希望在于，随着技术的发展，更多研究者能够认识到把结果返回给参与者的重要性——特别是那些可能具有重大医学效果的结果。


Because there is no regulation requiring that initial sequencing of human genomes be performed to clinical standards, most sequencing does not meet laboratory-test criteria.	由于没有监管规则要求初始的人类基因组测序必须按照临床标准进行，因此大部分测序都达不到实验室测验标准。


Indeed, results are often not reproducible – badly conceived, poorly conducted, or outright fraudulent.	事实上，通常测序结果都是不可重复的——要么设计有问题，要么过程有问题，要么完完全全是在作弊。


Criteria must therefore be established to ensure that sequencing is performed in an appropriate clinical environment, with rigorous standards in place, including for sample collection.	因此，必须建立规则已确保测序在合适的临床环境中进行，受严格标准（包括样本收集标准）的约束。


Researchers today face the wrong incentives, which results in the failure to translate findings into meaningful action for research participants.	如今，研究者面临着错误的激励，因此无法将成果转化为对研究参与者有意义的行为。


Only by improving clinical standards and returning results to participants can human genome sequencing truly serve its purpose – to help humanity.	只有改善临床标准并向参与者返回结果才能让人类基因组测序活动服务于它的目的——帮助人类。


Human Rights Require Stronger Institutions	人权需要更强有力的机构保障


PARIS – Sixty years ago this week, the United Nations adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the first international proclamation of the inherent dignity and equal rights of all people.	巴黎——六十年前的这一周，联合国采纳了《世界人权宣言》，这是保护所有人与生俱来的尊严和平等权利的第一份国际公告。


To this day, the Universal Declaration remains the single most important reference point for discussion of ethical values across national, ideological, and cultural divides.	直到今天，《世界人权宣言》依然是跨越民族、意识形态和文化分野来探讨道德价值观的唯一一个最重要的基准点。


Yet the Declaration’s enlightened vision of individual freedom, social protection, economic opportunity and duty to community is still unfulfilled.	可是《人权宣言》有关个人自由、社会保护、经济机遇和群体职责的进步观点迄今仍未实现。


Tragically, genocide is happening again, this time in Sudan.	充满悲剧色彩的是，种族灭绝的暴行却再次出现，这一次是在苏丹。


A heightened security agenda since the attacks on the United States in September 2001 has included attempts to legitimize the use of “extraordinary rendition” (the movement between countries of prisoners and suspects without due process of law) and torture.	2001年9月针对美国的袭击事件发生后安全措施越来越严厉，其中也包括让“特别引渡”（即在不履行相应法律手续的情况下在国家间押解犯人和嫌疑人）和“酷刑折磨”合法化的企图。


For women around the world, domestic violence and discrimination in employment are a daily reality.	对于世界各地的女性来讲，家庭暴力和就业歧视是她们每天不得不面对的问题。


Minorities suffer stigma, discrimination, and violence in developed and developing countries.	生活在发达和发展中国家的少数族裔不得不忍受耻辱、歧视和暴力。


The right to information is denied to millions through censorship and media intimidation.	审查制度和媒体恫吓剥夺了数百万人了解信息的权利。


Poverty is our greatest shame.	贫穷是我们最大的耻辱。


At least one billion very poor people, 20% of humanity, are daily denied basic rights to adequate food and clean water.	至少有10亿特别贫困人口，占世界总人口数的20%，无法获得每日所需的充足食物和洁净饮用水等最基本的权利。


While gross inequalities between rich and poor persist, we cannot claim to be making adequate progress toward fulfilling the ambitions set down 60 years ago.	由于贫富之间仍然差距依然如此明显，我们没有脸面声称已经朝着60年前制定的目标取得了长足的进步。


As we mark this anniversary, the question is how to protect the inherent dignity and equal rights of all people.	在庆祝《人权宣言》纪念日的时刻，如何保护所有人与生俱来的尊严和平等权利是我们应该关注的问题。


A key part of the answer lies in more effective systems of accountability, so that rights are recognized and laws enforced.	最关键的答案在于建立更有效的责任体系，这样才能承认基本人权并落实相关法律。


Yet if we take a long, hard look at what has been achieved over the past six decades – and at what remains resistant to all our efforts – then it is also clear that this will not be enough.	但如果我们对过去六十年所取得的成绩进行长久、冷静的思考——同时也必须正视哪些问题抵制住了我们的努力——那么有一点也非常清楚，那就是单靠有效的责任体系并不能解决问题。


The deepest challenges of discrimination, oppression, injustice, ignorance, exploitation, and poverty cannot be addressed through the law or policy alone.	单靠法律和政策无法解决歧视、压迫、不公、愚昧、剥削和贫困等诸多问题。


If we are to make reforms sustainable and ensure that they truly protect human rights, we need effective institutions of government.	如果我们想让改革的效果可以持续，确保它们能真正保护人权，我们就必须建立起有效的政府机构体系。


Poorly equipped or corrupt institutions are a primary obstacle to the effective protection and promotion of human rights.	缺乏授权或者腐败的机构体系是有效保护和促进人权的主要障碍。


In recent years, billions of dollars have been invested by governments, businesses, and private philanthropy in fighting poverty in poor countries.	近年来，已经有数十亿美元的政府、企业和私人慈善机构投资用于战胜贫困国家的贫困问题。


Millions of people have benefited.	数以百万计的人从这些投资中受益。


Yet those involved have recognized publicly that without greatly improved institutional capacity – for example, well-resourced and competent local and national health systems – further progress will be limited.	但相关人士已经公开承认，如果不具备大幅度提升的机构能力——如资源充足且能力出众的地方和国家医疗系统——那么取得更大进步的空间将会受到限制。


Similarly, billions of people are today unable to access or protect their legal rights because judicial and law enforcement systems are impoverished or lack integrity.	同样，今天有数十亿人由于司法和执法体系软弱无力或欠缺公平而无法获得或者保护他们的合法权利。


Changing this will require massive investment in courts, judicial officials, police, prison systems, social ministries, and parliaments, as well as in national human rights institutions and other official monitoring bodies.	改变这种状况需要为法院、司法官员、警察、监狱系统、社会保障部和议会，还有国家人权机构和其他官方监管机构注入大笔的投资。


Nothing on this anniversary is more important than to urge our leaders to recognize the scale of the task and commit to sustained action to build institutional capacities to protect human rights, starting in their own countries.	值此六十周年纪念庆典之际，最重要的是敦促我们的领导人对这项任务所涉及的范围有一个清醒的认识，并致力于采取可持续措施来建设机构能力以达到保护人权的目的，而这一切就从他们自己的国家开始。


As world leaders race to address the current global economic crisis, it may seem unrealistic to be calling for large and long-term investments of this kind.	值此世界领袖争先恐后地应对目前的全球经济危机之际，呼吁进行这类大规模长期投资似乎不太现实。


But, while stabilizing the international financial system is important, doing so won’t solve wider challenges of governance.	但尽管稳定国际金融体系非常重要，但这样做却解决不了涉及面更广的执政问题。


Human rights cannot be realized in the absence of effective institutions.	没有有效的执行机构，人权的落实就无从谈起。


Where courts and police are corrupt, over-burdened and inefficient, basic civil rights will be violated.	哪里的法院和警察腐败、低效和负担过重，哪里的基本人权就会遭到侵害。


Where social ministries are under-resourced, disempowered, or lack qualified staff, basic rights to adequate health care, education, and housing will remain unfulfilled.	哪里的社会保障部门资源匮乏、权力虚弱、或缺少合乎要求的人员配置，哪里就无法落实提供充足的医疗、教育和住宅的基本权利。


Even the world’s richest nation, the United States, struggles to implement much needed reforms for some of its most important social institutions – including its health and education systems.	就连全世界最富有的国家美国也竭力落实针对某些最重要社会机构的急迫的改革措施——其中包括美国的医疗和教育体系。


Think how much more difficult this challenge is for the world’s developing nations.	想想这一挑战对世界各地的发展中国家来讲会有多大难度。


Making progress is a great test of political maturity.	取得进展是对政治成熟度的最大考验。


It is, nevertheless, essential if we are to make rights a reality for all.	尽管如此，如果我们想要落实所有人的人权，迎接上述挑战又是必不可少的程序。


Over the past year, as members of The Elders – a group of leaders formed under Nelson Mandela’s inspiration – we have been working with a range of partner organizations to send a human rights message to the world through the Every Human Has Rights Campaign.	去年，作为纳尔逊·曼德拉创意建立的领导团体国际长者会的成员，我们已经与多家伙伴机构展开合作，通过“人人皆有人权”运动向世界传递人权信息。


Thanks to this collective effort, tens of thousands of individuals – and millions more through schools, community groups, trade unions, and civil society organizations – have come to identify again, or for the first time, with the goals of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.	多亏了这样的集体努力，数十万人——还有数百万人通过学校、社团、贸易联合会和民间团体等组织——首次或者重新开始认同《世界人权宣言》的目标。


This is reason for hope.	我们有理由保持希望。


We have better tools to communicate and demand justice than any generation before us.	与前辈们相比我们拥有更好的沟通和要求正义的工具。


We have global goals and shared destinies that connect us.	全球目标和共同的命运把我们联系在一起。


What is needed now are leadership, resources, a greater sense of urgency, and commitment to the long-term efforts that must dedicated to ensuring that the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration are not only recognized universally, but respected as well.	我们现在需要的是领导、资源、紧迫感和长期努力的决心，所有这些都必须用来确保《世界人权宣言》中所记载的权利在全世界得到人们的承认与尊重。


Humpty Dumpty and Global Financial Imbalances	蛋先生与全球金融不平衡


WASHINGTON, DC: There is an old saying that goes, “If you have only a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”	华盛顿特区：有句老话叫：“如果你只有一把锤子，所有东西看起来都像钉子。


Nowhere is this clearer than in discussions of the United States’ trade deficit and global financial imbalances, given economists’ tendency to reduce most economic problems to questions of savings. Unfortunately, this focus on savings distorts understanding and distracts from the real challenge of creating mass consumption markets in developing countries.	”鉴于经济学家门将大多数问题都归结为储蓄问题的倾向，这一点在关于美国贸易逆差和全球金融不平衡的讨论中表现得最明显不过了。


Within national income accounts, trade deficits represent the excess of a country’s consumption over production.	在国民收入账目中，贸易逆差到代表着一个国家的消费超过了生产。


From an accountant’s perspective, that makes it logical to label trade deficits as negative savings.	从账目的角度来讲，将贸易逆差标记为负储蓄似乎是符合逻辑的。


Most economists go a step further, asserting that the US deficit is caused by a savings shortage.	大多数的经济学家都进而认为美国的贸易逆差是由储蓄不足造成的。


But, since one country’s trade deficit is another’s surplus, US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has argued for turning the conventional logic on its head: rather than resulting from a savings shortage, the US trade deficit is the result of a global savings glut – especially in China.	但由于一个国家的贸易逆差就意味着另一个国家的贸易顺差，所以美联储德主席Ben Bernanke的说法则是要完全扭转传统的逻辑：美国的贸易逆差不是储蓄不足的结果，而是全球—特别是中国储蓄过剩所致。


Both stories are flawed.	这两种说法都不妥。


How does a savings glut translate into exports, given that households do not export?	既然家庭不进行出口贸易，那么储蓄过剩又如何转化为出口呢？


Likewise, if the US is consuming too much, why has it been closing manufacturing capacity, and why is there so much labor market softness?	同理，如果美国消费过度，那么它为什么又一直在关闭制造能力，而且劳动力市场为何又如此疲软呢？


Both the savings shortage and savings glut hypotheses confuse accounting outcomes with causes.	储蓄不足与储蓄过剩的假定都使得会计计算的结果出现了混乱。


Trade deficits reflect transactions between producers and buyers, and those transactions are the result of incentives and price signals.	贸易逆差反映了生产者与购买者之间的交易，而这些交易都是激励因素和价格信号的结果。


US consumers buy imports rather than American-made goods because imports are cheaper.	美国的消费者购买进口产品而不是美国产品是因为进口产品更便宜。


This price advantage is often due to exchange rates in places like China and Japan, whose currencies are undervalued by between 25% and 40%, which often offsets US efficiency advantages.	这种价格优势通常是由中国和日本等国的汇率造成的。 它们的货币价值被低估了25%至40%，从而经常抵消美国的效益优势。


Undervalued exchange rates are only one of the policies that countries use to boost exports and restrain imports, so that they run trade surpluses, while their trading partners (including the US) run deficits.	低估的汇率只是各国用以推动出口并限制进口的政策之一。 实施这样的政策使得该国享有贸易顺差而其贸易伙伴们（包括美国）则出现逆差。


Policies aimed at ensuring export-led growth also include export subsidies and barriers to imports.	确保出口主导型经济增长的政策还有出口补贴和进口壁垒等。


In the modern era of globalization, export-led growth is supplemented by policies to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), a combination that has been particularly successful in China.	在全球化的当下，出口主导型增长还以吸引外国直接投资(FDI)的政策为重要补充。 这种双管齐下的战略在中国尤为成功。


Such FDI policies include investment subsidies, tax abatements, and exemptions from domestic regulation and laws.	这种FDI政策包括投资补贴、退税和特殊待遇等。


These policies encourage corporations to shift output to developing countries, which gain modern production capacity. This increases developing countries exports and reduces their import demand (or increases it at a lower rate than export growth).	这些政策鼓励大公司将生产能力转移到发展中国家，使后者获得现代化的生产能力，进而增加了它们的出口并降低了进口需求（或使进口的增速低于出口）。


Meanwhile, corporations reduce home country manufacturing capacity and investment, which reduces home country exports while increasing imports.	同时，大公司降低了本国的制造能力和投资，从而减少了本国的出口并增加了进口。


Once again, China provides clear evidence of these patterns, with almost 60% of Chinese exports being produced by foreign corporations.	中国再一次清楚地证明了这一点。 该国60%的出口产品都是由外国公司生产的。


This story is fundamentally different from the savings shortage and savings glut hypotheses, and it leads to dramatically different policies.	这种解释与储蓄不足和储蓄过剩的假定有着根本的不同，从而也会导致迥然不同的政策出台。


Developing countries need to grow, but nowadays it is easier to acquire capacity and grow through FDI than it is to develop domestic mass consumption markets.	发展中国家需要增长，但现今通过FDI获得制造能力和增长比通过发展国内的大众消费市场要容易。


Consequently, rather than facing a savings glut, the global economy faces a problem of demand failure in developing countries.	因此，世界经济面临的问题不是储蓄过剩，而是发展中国家的消费需求不足。


The challenge is to get corporations to invest in developing countries, but for purposes of producing for local consumers.	现在的挑战是让大公司在发展中国家投资，但要为当地的消费者制造产品。


That requires expanding markets in developing countries, which means tackling income inequality and getting income into the right hands – an enormous organizational challenge that is off the radar because economists focus exclusively on savings and supply-side issues.	这就需要扩大发展中国家的市场。 这种扩大又意味着解决收入不均和使真正需要的人增加收入—一个由于经济学家们仅仅关注储蓄和供应面的问题而被忽视的组织性挑战。


Labor standards, minimum wages, and unions are part of the solution, as they were in countries that developed successfully.	劳动力标准、最低工资和工会都是解决方案的一部分，正如它们在许多国家得到成功地发展那样。


Unions have historically been especially important since they engage in decentralized wage bargaining that tie wages to firms’ productivity.	从历史上讲，工会就特别重要，因为它们参与了将工资与公司的生产力挂钩的分散式的工资谈判。


Consequently, wages are market sustainable.	因此，工人的工资水平在市场上是可持续的。


Government spending can also help, but its role is limited.	政府开支也能有所帮助，但作用有限。


Countries that substitute government spending for market spending either generate inflationary budget deficits, or end up with excessively high tax rates that destroy incentives.	以政府支出替代市场支出的国家要么会产生引发通胀的预算赤字，要么以破坏激励机制的过高税率收场。


But no solution is possible until we abandon the savings shortage and savings glut hypotheses and connect today’s global financial imbalances with global production patterns and inadequate demand in developing countries.	但在我们摒弃储蓄不足与储蓄过剩的假定并将当今全球金融不平衡与全球生产模式和发展中国家的内需不足联系起来之前，任何解决方案都是不可能的。


Tortuous claims that saving is merely the flip side of consumption and investment spending are the economic equivalent of Humpty Dumpty’s argument in Through the Looking Glass : “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean.”	那种认为储蓄只是消费和投资的反面的令人难受的观点在经济学上就等同于《爱丽斯漫游奇境》中的蛋先生（Humpty Dumpty）说：“当我用一个词的时候，我想它是什么意思它就是什么意思。 ”


Humpty-Dumpty Iraq	覆水难收的伊拉克


Iraq’s draft constitution will probably be approved in the referendum to be held on October 15.	伊拉克的宪法草案很可能会在10月15日举行的全民公决中获得批准。


But whether it is ratified or not ultimately does not matter, as the constitution – and the whole constitution-making process – is totally out of touch with the realities of a country that no longer exists as a coherent body politic.	但它最终能否获得通过其实都无关紧要，因为这部宪法—及其整个立法程序—都完全与该国已不成其为一个政治实体的现实脱节。


The problem is not with the constitution, but with the conventional wisdom – almost an idée fixe – that Iraq is a viable modern nation-state, and that all it needs to make it work properly is the right political institutions.	问题不在于宪法（本身），而在于传统智慧—几乎可说是一种思维定势—即伊拉克是一个有活力的现代民族国家，而使它正常运转所需要的只是合适的政治制度。


But this is a fallacy, and responsible leaders should begin to think of alternatives.	但这是一种错觉，负责任的领导人们应该开始思考其它的方案了。


The Iraqi state, established in the 1920’s by British imperialist planners (with Winston Churchill in the lead), is a strange pastiche of three disparate provinces of the old Ottoman Empire: Mosul in the north with a Kurdish majority, Baghdad in the center with a Sunni Arab majority, and Basra in the south with a Shia Arab majority.	由英帝国主义规划者（以丘吉尔为首）在1920年建立的伊拉克国家是由曾隶属于老的土耳其帝国的三个截然不同的省份组成的奇特仿制品：北部以库尔德人为主的摩苏尔，中部以逊尼派阿拉伯人为主的巴格达和南部以什叶派阿拉伯人为主的巴士拉。


For their own political reasons, the British put the Sunni Arabs – never more than 25% of the population – in control of the whole country, and even imported a Sunni Arab Hashemite prince to rule over their creation.	出于其自身的政治愿因，英国人将逊尼派阿拉伯人—从未超过总人口的5%--扶上统治地位，他们甚至还引进了一位哈桑家族的王子来统辖其杰作。


Ever since, the country could be held together only by an iron fist: Iraq’s history is replete with Shia, Kurdish, and even Christian Assyrian revolts, all put down in bloody fashion by the ruling Sunni minority.	从那以后，只有铁腕才能够确保国家的统一：伊拉克的历史上遍布着什叶派、库尔德人，甚至是基督教亚速人的叛乱，但都敌不过逊尼少数派统治者的血腥镇压。


Throughout its history, modern Iraq has always been the most oppressive of the Arab countries.	纵观其历史，现代伊拉克在所有阿拉伯国家中是压迫最严重的。


Saddam’s rule was only the most brutal in a long line of Sunni regimes.	萨达姆的统治也仅仅是一长串的逊尼政权中最暴虐的一个。


It was this Sunni hegemony – and not merely that of Saddam’s Ba’athist regime – that was toppled by the United States.	被美国人推翻的不仅仅是萨达姆的社会党政权，更是这种逊尼派的霸权。


But, given Iraq’s history and demography, the American attempt to refashion the country as a functioning democracy has foundered on three shoals: the Shia majority’s empowerment, the Kurds’s refusal to give up their hard-won de facto mini-state in the north, and the Sunnis’ violent campaign to undermine any system that they do not lead.	然而，鉴于伊拉克的历史和人口组成，美国将该国重塑为一个真正的民主国家的企图至少在三方面阻碍重重：占大多数的什叶派的赋权，库尔德人拒绝放弃他们来之不易的北部既成事实的迷你国家 ，以及逊尼派破坏任何不以他们为主导的制度的暴力运动。


In short, the draft constitution is an attempt to square a circle. The Sunni resistance – a guerilla and terrorist war that was well prepared in the last years of Saddam’s rule – will continue to try to subvert any semblance of order representing the current majority Shia-Kurdish coalition.	简言之，逊尼派的抵制—一场在萨达姆统治的后期就已准备好的游击和恐怖战争—会继续力图颠覆任何代表当前什叶—库尔德多数派联盟的秩序。


The Sunnis will go on with their murderous attacks on Shias, Kurds, and the US-led military coalition. They will probably boycott the constitutional referendum and all subsequent elections, just as they have boycotted the previous elections.	逊尼派会继续它们针对什叶派、库尔德人和美国领导的军事联盟的致命攻击。


After all, given the brutal logic of their long hegemony in Iraq, why should the Sunnis contemplate submitting to a process that is premised on their minority status, particularly when whole areas of the country are under the effective control of the Sunni insurgency?	毕竟，就其在伊拉克的长期霸权的残酷逻辑来看，逊尼派为什么要考虑对一个企图恢复其少数派地位的进程委屈求全，特别是在整个国家都处在逊尼派叛乱的有效控制之下的时候？


Similarly, why should the Shias, for their part, submit to Sunni hegemony rather than building up their own political structure in the south, modeled on what the Kurds have already achieved in the north?	同样，就什叶派而言，他们为什么不仿效北部的库尔德人的成功模式在南部建立自己的政治架构，而却要臣服于逊尼派的霸权呢？


Let’s be frank: Iraq is going the way of Yugoslavia as it disintegrated in the early 1990’s.	开诚布公地说，在1990年代早期分裂以后，伊拉克就在步南斯拉夫的后尘。


This should be acknowledged and ultimately welcomed, despite conventional diplomatic norms regarding the inviolability of the territorial integrity of existing states. 	这一点应该得到承认，甚至受到欢迎。 尽管通常的外交原则认为现存国家的领土完整不可侵犯。


Of course, such norms are helpful.	当然，这样的原则是有用的。


But once a state disintegrates, as happened in Yugoslavia, no constitutional formulations can save it.	可一旦某个国家分裂，就如南斯拉夫的情况那样，任何一种立宪秘方也无力回天。


Constitutions works only if all sides have an interest in operating within the proposed framework – and this obviously is not the case in Iraq.	宪法有效的前提是在提议的框架下行事符合相关各方的利益—而伊拉克显然不符合这一情况。


There is nothing sacrosanct in the continued existence of multi-ethnic and multi-religious states if their constitutive groups do not wish to live together.	如果相关各方都不愿做强扭的瓜，那么多民族、多宗教国家的存在就没有什么神圣的必要了。


On the contrary, there are lessons to be learned from the demise of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and even – perhaps especially – Czechoslovakia, which negotiated its break-up without violence.	相反，从苏联、南斯拉夫，甚至—或许尤其是—捷克斯洛伐克的剧变中还能汲取经验教训。 它们都是通过和平谈判的方式实现了分而治之。


By contrast, the current Bosnia-Herzegovina is an example of another failed attempt to keep a decrepit multi-ethnic entity alive: it doesn’t work, and the country is held together only by the almost dictatorial power of the international community’s High Representative and the presence of foreign troops.	相形之下，目前的波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维纳就是让一个衰老的多民族实体苟延残喘的失败例证：这是行不通的。 这个国家避免分裂完全是靠国际社会的“高级代表”近乎独裁的权力和外国军队的坐镇。


It is time to face reality: the Kurdish region in the north is functioning in a reasonable way, and it has even been able to allay Turkey’s fears that its existence will aggravate that country’s own Kurdish problem.	 到了面对现实的时刻了：（伊拉克）北部的库尔德地区秩序良好，它甚至已经缓和了土耳其对其存在会加剧本国库尔德人问题的恐惧。


With the Shias building their polity in the south, the Sunni areas too should be allowed to go their own way.	随着什叶派在南部建立他们自己的政治体系，逊尼派也应该可以走自己的道路。


This may be more conducive to peace than trying to impose on them a hated occupation or an equally hated Shia hegemony.	这可能比试图强加给他们一种天怒人怨的占领和同样招致憎恨的什叶派霸权更能带来和平。


The emergence of three states – or highly autonomous regions – instead of a unified Iraq is happening anyway, constitution or no constitution.	各自为政的三个省—或高度自治的地区—而不是一个统一的伊拉克的出现是现实的情况。


Nobody, it appears, can put Humpty-Dumpty Iraq together again.	不管有没有宪法，似乎没有人能够让一个积重难返，四分五裂的伊拉克的再次统一。


But it will require courage to acknowledge what is occurring before our eyes, rather than continue to grasp at the chimera of a consolidated Iraqi state.	但正视和承认发生在我们眼前的这一切需要的是勇气，而不是继续抱着一个统一的伊拉克国家的幻想不放。


In fact, to acknowledge the obvious in Iraq is also to recognize that there are grounds for hope.	事实上，承认伊拉克的现实也就等于承认还有希望。


As in the former Yugoslavia, the separate entities now emerging may stand a better chance of developing a semblance of representative and eventually democratic governance than if Iraq’s warring communities are forced to live together in the prison house that the country has always been for most of its citizens.	正如在前南斯拉夫，崛起中的独立实体可能比一直处在战乱樊笼中的伊拉克各社会更有机会表达自己不同的声音，并最终实现民主治理。


A Clash of Western Civilizations	西方文明的冲突


PARIS – Images from the refugee crisis in Europe have juxtaposed smiling crowds in Vienna and Munich with grim, unwelcoming faces in Budapest.	巴黎——维也纳和慕尼黑的微笑人群以及布达佩斯不友好的面孔共同组成了欧洲难民危机的典型景象。


The result has been a surge of commentary about the “two Europes” – one welcoming, one forbidding.	结果是“两个欧洲”的说法甚嚣尘上——一个善意友好、另一个严峻可怕。


The truth is that disagreements over whether countries should take in refugees are hardly unique to Europe.	事实是有关国家是否应收容难民之争不仅为欧洲所独有。


The contrast on display is symptomatic of a deep rift within the Western world.	其中的差异显示出西方世界分歧之严重。


The divide cuts across the United States, the European Union, and Israel – and, equally important, across Jewish and Christian communities.	上述分歧既存在于美国、欧盟、以色列——同样也存在于犹太和基督教群体当中。


On one side are politicians like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, US President Barack Obama, former Israeli Welfare and Social Services Minister Isaac Herzog, and religious figures like Pope Francis.	一方是德国总理安吉拉·默克尔、欧洲委员会主席让·克劳德·容克、美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马、前以色列福利和社会服务部长艾萨克·赫尔佐格和教皇弗朗西斯这样的宗教人物。


On the other are Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán, French nationalist politician Marine Le Pen, US Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, the Cardinal of Hungary, Péter Erdő, and legions of other Eastern European clergy.	另一方则是匈牙利总理维克多·奥尔班、法国民族主义政治家马琳·勒庞、美国共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普、以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡、匈牙利红衣主教艾尔多和其他东欧牧师团。


Each of the camps shares a fundamental outlook on the role refugees play in society.	各阵营都对难民的社会作用持有最基本的观点。


The first group consists of those who consider democratic values to be more important than ethnic or national identities.	第一类由认为民主价值比种族或民族身份更重要的人组成。


In their view, anyone who abides by a country’s laws can become a full-fledged citizen and contribute to the vitality of his or her adopted country.	在他们看来，任何遵守国家法律的人都能成为完全合格的公民，为焕发入籍国的活力做出贡献。


According to this view, inclusion of “the other” – people from different countries and cultures – does not destroy national identity; it enriches it with new ideas and behaviors.	按照上述观点，“他人”——不同国家和文化移民的融入不仅不会破坏民族认同感； 反而会以新的思想和行为丰富它的内涵。


Proponents of such cross-fertilization point to outsiders or their descendants who have attained high positions in their adopted countries: a Latino member of the US Supreme Court, German constitutional lawyers of Turkish origin, French prefects whose parents and grandparents arrived from North Africa, British lords and baronesses with roots in Africa and the Caribbean, and Italian writers of Indian descent.	在入籍国身居高位的外来人口或其后代是上述文化杂交过程的明证：包括美国最高法院一名拉丁裔法官、土耳其裔德国宪法律师、父母和祖父母来自北非的法国地方行政长官、原籍非洲和加勒比地区的英国勋爵和男爵夫人和印度裔意大利作家。


Accordingly, advocates of this worldview regard fences and walls as insults to humanity, proof that those who build and maintain them have no trust in their countries’ vibrancy and strength.	因此，这种世界观的倡导者将篱笆和围墙视为对人性的侮辱及其建造者对本国活力和实力没有信心的证明。


Above all, they adhere to a universal discourse based on international law and ethical, moral, and religious principles.	归根结底，他们奉行以国际法、种族、道德和宗教为原则的普适价值观。


Christians and Jews in this camp stress that welcoming strangers and people in need lies at the very heart of their respective faiths.	上述阵营的基督徒和犹太教徒都强调欢迎陌生人和有需要的人是他们各自信仰的核心。


Taking in the needy is an ethical imperative, not a politically conditioned choice.	收留贫困者是一种道德义务，不是一种附带政治条件的选择。


Despite the fact that most refugees come from Arab lands known for their anti-Semitism and anti-Israel stance, Jewish intellectuals in this camp have been unanimous in welcoming them with open arms.	尽管大多数阿拉伯难民出了名地反犹和反以，上述阵营的犹太知识分子仍众口一词地张开双臂对他们表示欢迎。


Meanwhile, Pope Francis has been clear that Christian values include caring for refugees.	此外，教皇弗朗西斯已明确表示基督教价值观包括关爱难民。


On the other side of the divide are those who fear the other as a threat to national identity.	阵线另一侧的群体害怕外来人口对其民族身份构成威胁。


Their gut-level response is to build fences and walls, as long and as tall as possible, whether on the border between Mexico and the US, on Israel’s border with Egypt, or on Hungary’s border with Serbia (or even with fellow EU member Croatia).	无论在墨西哥美国边界、以色列埃及边界还是匈牙利塞尔维亚边界（甚至与同为欧盟成员国的克罗地亚边境），尽可能修建篱笆和围墙是他们本能的反应。


It is no coincidence that Hungarian and Bulgarian policymakers have turned to Israeli companies to seek technical advice on how to build their fences.	匈牙利和保加利亚决策者求助以色列公司寻求围墙修筑技术方面的建议绝不是巧合。


Members of this camp do not believe that dynamic civil societies can integrate people of different origins within open democratic settings, or that their countries can benefit from welcoming them.	上述阵营成员不相信欢迎移民可以让国家受益，也不相信充满活力的民间社会可以让出身不同者融入到开放的民主环境中。


The risk of a few bad apples (Mexican drug dealers, Islamic terrorists, economic migrants, or those wishing to cash in on welfare systems) outweighs any benefits that the vast majority of young and determined newcomers could bring.	少数烂苹果风险（墨西哥毒贩、伊斯兰恐怖分子、经济移民或想从福利体系中捞取好处者）永远比不上多数年轻坚而定的新移民所能带来的好处。


Nor does this camp believe in international conventions on the rights of asylum-seekers or the duty of signatory countries to take them in.	上述阵营也不相信庇护寻求者权利国际公约或缔约国的收容义务。


Any appeal to human rights is derided as dangerous naiveté, as are references to moral or religious imperatives.	任何人权考虑与道德或宗教方面的责任一样，都被嘲笑为危险的天真。


Instead, the emphasis is on protecting the “nation” against foreign viruses.	相反，他们所强调的是保护“国家”远离外国病毒。


These views are promoted not only by politicians, but also by leading religious authorities, including the evangelical right in the US, Catholic prelates in Eastern Europe, and Israel’s nationalist rabbis.	不仅政治家宣传这样的观点，美国的福音教派、东欧天主教教士和以色列的民族主义拉比等主流宗教机构也是一样。


This clash of Western civilizations could not be more important.	不可能有比这更严重的西方文明冲突。


Those who shut doors and build walls do not belong to the same family as those who welcome the needy in the name of higher values.	那些关起大门、修建围墙者和以崇高价值的名义欢迎需要帮助者不可能成为一家。


The foundational principles of our democratic traditions are at stake – principles that are being weakened by the clash itself.	民主传统的基本原则正处在危险之中——冲突本身正在削弱上述原则。


Keep the Internet Tax-Free	让互联网免税


WASHINGTON, DC – When you spark one of the largest protests in Eastern Europe since the fall of communism, you know that you have stirred up the electorate.	华盛顿—当你引起了东欧自共产主义倒台以来最大规模的游行示威时，你知道你触怒了选民。


That is exactly what the Hungarian government did when it recently proposed an “Internet tax” of 50 euro cents ($0.62) per gigabyte.	匈牙利政府就是这么做的——最近，它出台了一项“互联网税”，每GB征收50欧分。


More than 100,000 protesters gathered in Budapest, furious at the political symbolism of the tax and its very real economic impact.	超过100,000示威者涌上布达佩斯街头，怒批这项税收的政治象征意义和实实在在的经济影响。


Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government quickly backed down.	总理奥班政府很快就做了让步。


Hungary’s proposed tax was absurd – akin to assessing fees on reading books or charging people to have conversations with friends.	匈牙利的征税计划荒谬可笑——就像是要向读书收费或让人们花钱与朋友们说话一样。


But the proposal, even if discarded (though Orbán has hinted that he may bring it back in another form), remains worrisome, because it is part of a disturbing trend.	但是，该计划即使被放弃（尽管奥班暗示会以另一种形式卷土重来），也仍然令人担忧，因为它是令人不安的趋势的一部分。


A large number of countries have introduced taxes and tariffs that hamper the adoption and use of information and communications technology (ICT).	大量国家引入了有碍于信息和通信技术（ICT）使用的税收和关税。


All together, 31 countries – including Turkey, Brazil, and Greece – add 5% or more to the cost of ICT, on top of standard value-added taxes.	总共有31个国家——包括土耳其、巴西和希腊——除了标准的增值税之外又给ICT带来5%的额外成本。


In Hungary, the proposed tax would have been particularly onerous, because it would raise the cost of mobile data by 5-15% and have an even bigger impact on fixed broadband subscriptions.	匈牙利的互联网税计划尤其苛刻，因为它将把移动数据成本提升5—15%，并且给固定宽带订户带来更大的影响。


For the young and the poor, it would be a significant burden.	对年轻人和穷人来说，这是一项很重的负担。


A cap of €2.30 per person, hastily proposed after the initial public outcry, and before the proposal was withdrawn, would have done little to ease that burden on low-income Internet users, while drastically reducing the program’s overall revenue.	每人2. 30欧元的封顶额——在方案收回之前迫于民众呼声匆忙实施——几乎无助于缓解低收入互联网用户的负担，同时还大大减少了该计划的总收入。


As the protesters in Budapest pointed out, the proposed tax is wrong for Hungary.	布达佩斯示威者指出，对匈牙利来说，这项税收计划是错误的。


It is wrong for other countries, too.	对其他国家来说，这也是错误的。


Cash-strapped governments adopt these taxes because ICT goods and services are an easy target for revenue authorities.	囿于现金不足的政府实施这些税种是因为对税收当局而言ICT产品和服务容易定位。


In addition, they are sometimes mischaracterized as luxury products – as if the Internet has not become central to peoples’ lives.	此外，有时它们还被错判为奢侈品——好像互联网还没有成为人们日常生活的核心似的。


These policies are ultimately self-defeating.	这些政策最终只能适得其反。


The resulting price hikes impede the adoption and use of ICT, lowering tax revenues from purchases of goods and services.	由此带来的价格攀升阻碍了ICT的采用和使用，降低了来自商品和服务购买行为的税收收入。


And the evidence shows an even larger indirect effect: restricting ICT adoption dampens growth.	而证据表明还有更大的直接影响：限制ICT的采用有损于增长。


Ultimately, this has a negative impact on total tax revenues, offsetting any gains from fees on Internet use.	总而言之，这对总税收收入起到了负作用，足以抵消任何来自互联网使用费的好处。


One study found that for every dollar equivalent of tariffs India imposed on imported ICT products it suffered an economic loss of $1.30 from lower productivity.	一项研究发现，印度队进口ICT产品所征收的每一美元关税都会给它带来1. 30美元的生产率落后造成的经���损失。


Taxes on ICT are the modern-day equivalent of eating the grain you were saving to plant next year.	对ICT征税就好比是吃掉你保存下来用于第二年耕种的种子。


The adoption of ICT drives fundamental technological change, potentially transforming a broad range of industries, as well as people’s daily lives.	ICT的采用推动了根本性的技术变化，潜在改变了一系列产业以及人们的日常生活。


For businesses, ICT can improve efficiency and facilitate coordination.	对企业而言，ICT可以增进效率、促进合作。


For individuals, it can boost incomes and make everyday life more convenient.	对个人而言，ICT可以提振增长、让日常生活更加方便。


The benefits of ICT goods and services grow significantly as more businesses and consumers start to use them.	ICT产品和服务的好处随着更多的企业和消费者开始使用它们而大幅增加。


Smart government policies, such as subsidies or tax breaks for ICT purchases, boost adoption by helping users who would not otherwise be able to afford them.	明智的政府政策，比如ICT采购补贴或税收豁免，可以通过帮助本无力承担的用户使用ICT而增加采用率。


Taxing the Internet, like other taxes and tariffs on ICT goods and services, has the opposite effect.	对互联网征税和对ICT产品和服务征收税收和关税一样，只能起到反作用。


Hungary’s proposed tax was especially pernicious, owing to its poor design.	匈牙利的税收计划尤其有害，因为设计得很不合理。


Because the tax was a flat €0.50 per gigabyte, its share in total ICT spending would rise as the cost of a gigabyte fell – as it is almost guaranteed to do.	这项税收按每GB 0. 50欧元一刀切征收，其占总ICT支出的比重将随每GB成本的下降（几乎是必然事件）而上升。


The cap on such a tax would prevent the rate from spiraling upward, but rising bandwidths would cause most users to max out quickly, affecting not only the poorest consumers, but also new or small businesses.	对该项税收封顶可以防止税率不断上升，但带宽的增长会导致大部分用户很快就必须缴税，不但影响到最贫困消费者，也影响到新企业和小企业。


Keeping poor people and entrepreneurs off the Internet is no way to fund a government.	让穷人和企业家无法上网绝不是有利于政府收入的办法。


Countries would be better off with policies that promote ICT: elimination of taxes and tariffs on ICT products and services, removal of non-tariff barriers like requiring local data storage, and encouragement of digital innovation and transformation in economic sectors through regulatory and procurement reform.	各国将因为促进ICT的政策而受益：如取消ICT产品和服务的税收和关税、消除非关税壁垒（如要求本地数据储存）、通过监管和采购改革鼓励经济部门的数字创新和转型等。


The resulting rise in productivity, competitiveness, and economic growth would establish a far more stable and successful foundation for increasing tax revenues.	由此代理爱的生产率、竞争力和经济增长提升将为税收收入的增长打下更稳定和成功的基础。


The European Union as a whole has done a good job of keeping ICT taxes and tariffs low, despite substantial fiscal difficulties in many countries.	整体而言，欧盟在保持低ICT税收和关税水平方面做得很好，尽管许多国家遭遇了重大财政困难。


Indeed, the overall non-discriminatory tax regime has been an important boon to ICT adoption, and the EU’s commissioner for the digital agenda spoke out strongly against Hungary’s proposed tax, calling it “a particularly bad idea.”	事实上，总体非歧视性税收制度十分有利于ICT的采用，而欧盟数字日程委员强烈反对匈牙利的税收计划，称之为“坏透的馊主意”。


The only EU country with significant taxes on ICT products and services (around 9%) is Greece, something of a special case in Europe.	在欧盟，唯一对ICT产品和服务课以重税的国家是希腊（约为9%），这只是欧洲的特例。


The recent actions by Hungarian policymakers show that no country is immune to bad policy ideas.	匈牙利决策者的最新动作表明没有哪个国家可以免于政策馊主意。


Governments need revenue, but how they raise it shapes their countries’ economies by encouraging some transactions and discouraging others.	政府需要收入，但筹集收入的方式会鼓励某些交易，阻碍另一些交易，从而影响经济。


Policies that encourage ICT adoption are the right choice for long-term and inclusive economic growth.	鼓励ICT采用的政策是正确的长期包容性经济增长选择。


As the case of Hungary showed, ultimately it is up to citizens to hold governments accountable and ensure that tax and tariff policies work for the benefit of all.	匈牙利的例子表明，最终要靠公民保持政府问责、确保税收和关税政策符合所有人的利益。


Hunting the Higgs	追踪希格斯粒子


CAMBRIDGE – Fifty years ago, particle physicists faced an unexpected challenge.	剑桥——50年前，粒子物理学家们面临着意想不到的挑战。


Their best mathematical models could account for some of the natural forces that explain the structure and behavior of matter at a fundamental level, such as electromagnetism and the weak nuclear force responsible for radioactive decay.	他们最好的数学模型可以解释基本粒子结构及运动的某些自然规律，比方说电磁学和造成放射性衰变的弱核力现象。


But the models worked only if the particles inside of atoms had no mass.	但只有当原子内部的粒子质量为零时模型才能适用。


How could huge conglomerations of such particles – proteins, people, planets – behave as they do if their constituent parts weighed nothing at all?	可如果组成蛋白质、人、行星的物质重量为零，那么这些物质的巨型集合怎么会是现在这样？


Some physicists invented a clever workaround.	有些物理学家想出了一种巧妙的解决办法。


They suggested that a type of particle exists that had never been detected; it was eventually named in honor of the British physicist Peter Higgs.	他们提出存在一种尚未被发现的粒子，这种粒子最终以英国物理学家彼得·希格斯的名字命名。


For a half-century, physicists searched for the elusive “Higgs particle.”	半个世纪以来，物理学家一直在苦苦寻找这种难以捉摸的“希格斯粒子”。


Now, following research conducted at CERN, the sprawling particle-physics laboratory near Geneva, the hunt may soon be over.	而现在，欧洲粒子物理研究所设在日内瓦附近的粒子物理实验室的研究结果表明，这样的搜索可能很快会圆满结束。


At first blush, the idea behind the Higgs particle sounds outlandish.	乍看上去，希格斯粒子背后的想法似乎有些古怪。


Higgs and his colleagues suggested that every elementary particle really is massless, just as the mathematical models require, and hence all particles would ordinarily zip around at the speed of light.	希格斯和他的同事们提出就像数学模型所要求的那样，单个基本粒子的质量的确为零，因此所有粒子通常都会以光速向四周运动。


But suppose that everything around us – every single particle in the universe – is immersed in a huge, unseen vat of Higgs particles.	但假设我们周围的一切事物——宇宙中的每一个独立粒子都沉浸在由希格斯粒子组成的不可见的巨型大缸中。


Whenever most kinds of particles move from point A to point B, they continually bump into Higgs particles, slowing their motion.	每当各种粒子从A点运动到B点，都会不断地与其他粒子相撞，从而导致速度下降。


When we observe them, they appear to lumber along like holiday shoppers in a crowded store.	在我们观察时，这些粒子就像是假日期间在拥挤的商店里推推搡搡的购物者。


From their slow motion, we infer that they have mass.	而从它们缓慢的移动中，我们认为它们拥有质量。


While a 50-year search for a hypothetical particle reminiscent of a bizarre fairytale might seem quixotic, the Higgs particle stands at the center of the “Standard Model” of particle physics.	尽管花50年时间搜索“假想粒子”令人情不自禁联想起唐吉柯德式的怪诞童话故事，但希格斯粒子却是粒子物理学“标准模型”理论的核心假设。


Every experimental test of the model so far has matched theoretical expectations.	迄今为止对模型的所有实验性测试均与理论预期相符。


In some striking examples, the agreement between prediction and measurement has stretched out to twelve decimal places, making the Standard Model the most accurate scientific theory in human history.	在某些试验中，预测值与实测值之间的契合度达到了惊人的小数点后12位，“标准模型”也因此成为人类历史上最准确的科学理论。


The model successfully accounts for three of the four basic forces of nature; only gravity remains beyond its purview.	该模型成功解释了自然界四大基本力量中的三种，只有重力仍然超出它的解释范围。


Higgs particles might have played an even more substantial role at earlier moments in cosmic history.	希格斯粒子在宇宙历史的早期也许曾经发挥过更大的作用。


My own research, along with that of physicists around the world, has focused on what effects Higgs particles might have had just fractions of a second after the big bang – effects that could explain the shape and fate of the universe.	世界各地物理学家和我自己都在研究大爆炸后一微秒希格斯粒子可能产生的作用——这或许可以解释宇宙的形状和命运。


And yet, for all that, we still have no direct evidence that Higgs particles even exist.	不过尽管如此，我们还没有直接证据证明希格斯粒子切实存在。


According to the Standard Model, Higgs particles scatter off each other, so they, too, should have mass.	标准模型认为希格斯粒子相撞后立即散开，因此它们也应该具有质量。


The latest research indicates that Higgs particles (if they exist) should be among the most massive critters of the subatomic realm, more than 120 times as massive as the familiar proton.	最新研究表明希格斯粒子（如果这种粒子存在）应该是亚原子领域最大的物质，是我们所熟悉质子的120倍以上。


To produce such a particle in the laboratory requires revving up protons to nearly the speed of light and smashing them together, which the Large Hadron Collider at CERN accomplishes trillions of times per second.	在实验室中制造希格斯粒子需要将质子推升至光速并使其相互碰撞，欧洲粒子物理研究所的大型强子对撞机每秒能进行数万亿次这样的碰撞。


The energetic collisions produce all manner of debris, which physicists carefully track with huge detectors and sift with sophisticated computer algorithms.	高能碰撞产生出各式各样的碎片，物理学家借助大型探测仪小心地对碎片进行跟踪，并利用先进的计算机算法筛选这些碎片。


Physicists confront two major hurdles in their hunt for the Higgs.	物理学家在追踪希格斯粒子的过程中有两大主要障碍。


First, they must identify patterns in the debris that could have come from the production and rapid decay of a Higgs particle.	首先他们必须确定希格斯粒子产生及快速衰减所导致的碎片模式。


The sought-after signal is well understood in principle, given what we know about the Standard Model.	鉴于我们对标准模型的深刻把握，原则上我们所搜寻的信号是很好理解的。


So is the background noise from all of the other junk that comes flying out when two protons collide with colossal energy.	同样不难理解的还有两颗携带巨大能量的质子碰撞后飞散出的其他垃圾所产生的背景噪音。


Physicists searching for a few Higgs-like needles in a mind-bogglingly large haystack must comb their data for anomalies in the debris that cannot be accounted for by known processes.	物理学家们在碰撞产生的大量碎片里寻找几个希格斯粒子无异于大海捞针，他们必须仔细梳理无法从已知过程得到解释的碎片中的异常信号。


The second difficulty concerns statistics.	其次难度来源于数据统计。


The rules of quantum theory, on which the Standard Model is built, are at root probabilistic.	“标准模型”论基于量子理论规则，从根本上看是一种概率学说。


There will always be statistical flukes in the data, just as any series of coin tosses can produce an unexpected string of seven heads in a row.	数据中总无法避免偶然情况，就像任何一组抛掷硬币的动作都可能出人意料地连续出现7次正面朝上的结果。


To know with confidence that the coin is ordinary, with no hidden features, one must log a sufficiently large number of coin flips and check whether the data include equal numbers of heads and tails over the long run.	要想确信硬币没有不为人知的功能，的确是普通硬币，你就必须记录足够数量的抛掷结果，并检验长期结果数据中正面和背面的出现是否等量。


After thousands of coin tosses, if the data still show a bias toward heads, one may be justified in thinking that the coin has some unusual properties.	数千次抛掷后如果数据仍然显示正面居多，那么就有理由认为这枚硬币具有某些特殊性质。


The same holds true for all of the chaff from the protons’ collisions.	质子碰撞也适用同样的鉴别方法。


Before physicists can claim that their anomalies really come from Higgs particles, they must gather enough data to rule out flukes.	在物理学家宣布异常数据确实来自希格斯粒子之前，他们必须搜集足够的数据来排除偶然情况。


At CERN, two independent teams of physicists recently announced that their data were consistent with detection of a Higgs particle, though there remained a 1-in-2,000 chance that the signal came from mundane, non-Higgs processes.	欧洲量子物理研究所有两个独立的物理学家小组最近宣布，虽然信号仍有两千分之一的可能来自平常的非希格斯进程，但他们的数据显示希格斯粒子已经被发现。


So the teams will continue smashing protons together, gathering more data, and sifting for signs of a Higgs.	这两个小组将继续一同进行质子碰撞，搜集更多数据，并将希格斯粒子筛选出来。


We might not have the Higgs in hand right now.	现在我们可能还没有发现希格斯粒子。


But the latest news is the strongest indication yet that the 50-year hunt for one of the most fundamental bits of matter might well be coming to a successful conclusion.	但最新的消息已经确切地表明，长达50年的搜索物质基本粒子的过程可能即将获得圆满成功。


The next time the CERN teams call a press conference, it could be weighty news indeed.	下一次欧洲粒子物理研究所小组召开新闻发布会，就��能传出重量级的新闻。


Hurricane Sandy and Climate Change	飓风桑迪和气候变化


ATHENS, GEORGIA – In the waning weeks of the North American hurricane season – a time when a superstorm is not expected to cause widespread damage to the eastern coast of the United States – Hurricane Sandy is a grim reminder of the menace of extreme weather events.	佐治亚州阿森斯——在北美飓风季逐渐减弱的时候，超级风暴按理不该再对美国东海岸造成大规模的破坏，而飓风桑迪却在此时提醒人们极端天气事件到底有多严重。


With the lowest central pressure of the 2012 hurricane season, Sandy may have caused up to $20 billion in damages, making it one of the costliest superstorms in history.	作为2012年飓风季中心气压最低的飓风，桑迪可能已经造成了高达200亿美元的损失，也因此成为史上破坏力最强的飓风之一。


Sandy interacted with a weather system moving toward it from the east, posing difficult challenges for forecasters and nearly unprecedented weather conditions for the region.	桑迪与从东部顶头而来的天气系统相互影响，为预报员出了一道极大的难题，也为该地区带来了几乎前所未有的天气条件。


A similar storm hit New England 20 years ago.	类似的风暴大约20年前袭击了新英格兰。


But Sandy was worse, delivering hurricane-strength winds, drenching rains, and severe coastal flooding throughout the populous mid-Atlantic and northeast corridor.	但桑迪更胜一筹，伴随着飓风和倾盆大雨，并在人口众多的大西洋沿岸中部及东北走廊造成了若干沿海洪灾。


Some people will, of course, try to link Sandy with climate change.	有些人理所当然地会把桑迪和气候变化联系起来。


A similar rush to judgment occurred in the wake of massive tornado outbreaks in the US in recent years, even though the scientific literature does not offer strong support for such a connection.	美国近年爆发巨型龙卷风后有人就急于做出这样的判断，即使科学文献并没有对这种联系给出有说服力的支撑。


So, from the perspective of climate change, it is best to take a measured view of Sandy, lest hasty reaction harm scientific credibility.	因此从气候变化的角度来看，我们最好先对桑迪做出审慎的评估，以免草率反应对科学的可信性造成伤害。


But that is little cause for comfort.	但并没有理由因此而感到安慰。


According to the giant insurance company Munich Re, weather and climate disasters contributed to more than one-third of a trillion dollars in damage worldwide in 2011, and this year’s total may rival that amount.	按照巨型保险企业慕尼黑再保险公司的统计，2011年由于全球天气和气候灾害造成的损失超过三分之一万亿美元，而今年的损失总额或许也毫不逊色。


There is growing evidence of links between climate change and sea-level rise, heat waves, droughts, and rainfall intensity, and, although scientific research on hurricanes and tornadoes is not as conclusive, that may be changing.	越来越多的证据表明气候变化和海平面上升、热浪、干旱和降雨强度之间的确具有某种联系，而且尽管对飓风和龙卷风的科学研究还无法得出确凿的结论，但这种情况也有可能改变。


Indeed, recent reports by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientific literature suggest that the intensity of tropical cyclones (that is, hurricanes) will increase as a result of warmer waters.	其实，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）和其他科学文献近期的报告表明水体变暖会增强热带气旋（即台风）的强度。


And our atmosphere and oceans are, indeed, warming, with substantial residual heat stored in the ocean, to be released at some future time.	我们的大气和海洋其实正在变暖，海洋中大量储存的余热会在未来的某个时点释放。


A few studies have even suggested that tropical cyclones may be “wetter.”	某些研究甚至表明热带气旋可能会更加“多雨”。


It is quite certain that sea levels have risen over the last century, and continue to rise, in response to changing climate.	可以肯定海平面由于气候变化的作用已经在上个世纪上升，并且还将继续升高。


And storm surges now ride on these elevated sea levels, amplifying flooding losses where they strike.	现在的风暴潮发生在已经升高的海平面上，因此导致所到之处的洪灾损失大幅增加。


Sea surface temperatures along the US northeast coast are about five degrees Fahrenheit above average, which helped to intensify Sandy just prior to landfall.	美国东北部沿岸的海表温度比平均温度高出约华氏五度，这让桑迪在登陆前就积聚了更多的能量。


At this point, it is premature to link the storm’s severity to warmer sea-surface temperatures, because regional variability is known to occur.	此时就将风暴严重程度与海表温度升高联系在一起似乎还为时尚早，因为不同区域的情况一般会有所不同。


But the link certainly is plausible.	但这种联系从道理上肯定说得通。


Moreover, sea levels along the US northeast coast are rising up to four times faster than the global average, making the region more vulnerable to storm surges and flooding.	此外，美国东北部沿海的海平面升高速度快于全球平均速度的4倍，这使上述地区更容易遭受洪水和风暴潮。


And here the bottom line is that any coastal storm system will produce more flooding because of sea level rise.	而问题的最低限度是海平面上升导致任何沿海风暴系统将带来更大的水量。


It should also be noted that an atmospheric weather pattern known as a “block,” a persistent area of high pressure that may have led to record melting in Greenland, was most likely the reason that Sandy moved inland rather than out to sea.	还有一点需要提起注意，那就是名为“阻塞”（block）的持续性高压大气模式有可能导致格陵兰岛冰盖出现创纪录融化，也最有可能因此导致桑迪没有移向海平面，而是进入内陆。


It is too early to tell whether this blocking pattern is a manifestation of weather variability, a short-term climate variation, or the result of climate change.	现在就确定这种阻塞模式是否是天气变化、短期气候变化或气候变化结果的表现似乎还不到时候。


Advances in numerical weather forecasting during the past several decades have extended our ability to “see” into the future.	过去的几十年数值天气预报的发展使我们能更好的“预见”未来。


In September 1938, before all of these advances, a hurricane devastated much of New England.	1938年9月在取得所有这些进展之前，一场飓风摧毁了绝大部分新英格兰。


No warnings were issued prior to its arrival.	这场飓风来临之前没有发出任何警告。


Today, thanks to satellites, weather balloons, supercomputers, and skilled forecasters, we can anticipate hazardous weather up to a week in advance.	而今天，多亏卫星、气象气球、超级计算机和经验丰富的气象预报人士，我们提前一个星期就能预见灾害性天气的到来。


Similar advances in climate modeling are occurring, thanks to methodological improvements and better data.	由于方法改进和数据升级，在气候建模领域也取得了类似的进展。


At a minimum, we must ensure that world-class weather and climate-modeling centers have the necessary funding and manpower to implement the most advanced forecasting techniques.	至少我们必须确保世界级的天气和气候模拟中心拥有必要的资金和人力资源来落实最先进的预测技术。


Numerical weather forecasting was invented in the US, but today other countries have developed extremely high modeling capacity.	虽然最初数值天气预报发端于美国，但今天其他国家也逐步建立起极高的建模能力。


For example, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, in Great Britain, was targeting an East Coast landfall for Sandy days ahead of the best American model.	比方说英国的欧洲中程天气预报中心，抢在美国最佳模型几天前就锁定东海岸是桑迪的登陆目标。


The world will need more cooperation in the coming years, as climate change begins to interact with and exacerbate extreme weather events, in order to gain the lead-time needed to prepare for disasters.	随着气候变化开始影响并加剧极端天气事件，世界各国为了争取备灾所需的时间，就必需在未来几年内加强合作。


We will also need the collaboration among governments, the private sector, and academia that often leads to improvements in forecasting.	我们还需要能够提高预测能力的政府、私营部门以及学术界的合作。


Scientific meetings are key forums for sharing research, vetting new methodologies, and forging new partnerships.	科学会议是交流研究心得、验证新方法和达成新伙伴关系的重要讨论场所。


Many occur on an international basis, and we need to encourage such discourse, even in tough times for government budgets.	很多科学会议具有国际性，我们需要鼓励这样的交流，即使在政府预算比较艰难的时期也不例外。


It is reasonable to ask how well we would be able to predict or assess a storm like Sandy without the knowledge and capacity gained through such international collaboration.	如果没有通过这种国际合作所得到的知识和能力，我们不妨扪心自问我们能否预测或评估像桑迪这样的风暴。


We do not know whether superstorms like Sandy are harbingers of a “new normal” in the uneasy and unpredictable relationship between climate change and extreme weather events.	我们不清楚像桑迪这样的超级风暴是否预示着气候变化和极端天气事件之间令人不安且不可预测关系的“全新常态”。


That does not mean that there is not or cannot be such a connection, but rather that the scientific research needed to prove (or disprove) it must still be conducted.	但这并不是说这样的关系不存在或不可能存在，而是说必需实际进行证明（或否定）其存在的科学研究。


That is how good science works.	科学就是要这样发挥作用。


Sandy has provided a powerful demonstration of the need to support it.	桑迪为我们提供了需要支持科学发展的有力的示范。


Hu’s Chance	胡锦涛的机会


Chinese President Hu Jintao’s upcoming visit to the United States, postponed following hurricane Katrina, will be different from previous bilateral meetings.	中国国家主席胡锦涛即将访问美国。 这次因卡特琳娜飓风而推迟的访问，将会与先前的双边会谈有所不同。


This time, the countries’ presidents will meet at a time of intensive American attention to the US-China trade balance and other economic issues, such as protection of intellectual property rights.	美国正强烈地关注美中贸易平衡和其它经济问题，如知识产权保护。 两国元首将在这一背景下举行会谈。


With China’s US trade surplus reaching $200 billion last year, American sentiment is growing to take strong measures.	以美国海关的说法，去年中国对美国的贸易顺差已高达2000亿美元，美国人采取强硬措施的情绪正在上升。


Some have suggested that the trade imbalance is related to China’s currency peg to the US dollar.	有人说这种贸易不平衡与中国货币与美元挂钩有关。


A recent Congressional bill has called for imposing a 27.5% punitive tariff on Chinese imports.	最近的一项国会议案提议，对中国出口到美国的商品征收27. 5%的惩罚性关税。


In fact, the trade imbalance is more complicated than the currency issue per se.	事实上，贸易不平衡是一个复杂的问题，本质上决不仅仅是通货问题。


Globalization has strengthened the ability of capital to flow to wherever investment promises the highest returns; likewise, competitive manufactured products from low-wage economies will flow in the other direction.	全球化强化了资本向有最大投资回报可能的地方流动的能力； 同理，来自低工资经济体的具有竞争力的制造业产品将向其它国家流动。


That is why China fascinates American investors, among others, and why US customers buy Chinese products.	这就是为什么中国令美国以及其它国家的投资者着迷而美国消费者乐于购买中国产品。


To be sure, the exchange rate has an impact on investment and trade.	勿庸讳言，汇率确实对投资和贸易有影响。


But, even with China’s efforts to loosen the renminbi-dollar linkage, it is arguable whether revaluation could save American jobs or improve the US trade balance.	但是，即使中国努力放松人民币与美元之间的联系汇率，人民币升值能否挽救美国人的工作机会或者根本改善与美国的贸易平衡，尚有待商榷。


After all, China is not alone: India and other competitive developing countries pose a similar challenge to the US.	毕竟，并非仅仅是中国，印度和其它有竞争力的发展中国家也给美国带来了类似的挑战。


Nevertheless, for China’s part, now seems to be a good time to reflect on how to increase its exports’ value-added, as well as focusing on environmental protection and sustainability.	不过，对中国而言，现在到是有了一个良机，可以考虑如何提高其出口产品中由于人的因素所增加的附加值以及同环境保护和可持续发展有关的因素。


Thus, there is scope for a compromise that recognizes both sides’ legitimate concerns.	因此，就存在着承认中美双方的合理关切并达成妥协的余地。


The Chinese government is hastening its shopping spree in America these days, pushing up the renminbi’s exchange rate slowly but steadily.	这些天来中国政府正加紧在美国大力采购，正缓慢但稳步推动人民币汇率上升。


A sensible US policy on China may be to accept gradual currency appreciation, rather than a large revaluation, as America’s economic vitality stems from its own innovation rather than from concessions by the Chinese government.	美国欲对中国采取明智的政策，就应该接受人民币逐渐升值，而不是大幅升升，因为美国经济的根本活力来源于其自身的创新能力，而不是中国政府的让步。


A more difficult issue for Hu could be intellectual property rights.	胡主席访美将要面临的难题，是关于知识产权的保护。


China’s recent campaign to crackdown on pirating needs to be encouraged, but far more needs to be done.	需要指出，尽管中方最近开展的打击盗版的运动需要鼓励，但有关努力依然任重而道远。


However, while the US government and American companies question whether the Chinese are willing and able to enforce such rights, one must put this issue into historical perspective.	然而，虽然美国政府和公司都质疑中国是否愿意并能够保护知识产权，我们必须从历史的角度来看待这个问题。


Intellectual property protection is related to economic development, so the question should be whether China has reached the stage at which effective protection is possible.	知识产权保护与经济发展水平息息相关，因此，问题应该是中国是否达到了可以实施有效保护的阶段。


There is a positive side to such problems, however, namely that their very emergence reflects the deepening and broadening of bilateral relations.	然而，出现问题也有积极的一面。 这些问题的出现，恰恰反映了双边关系的加深和拓展。


Indeed, Sino-US interaction has been so strong that the two presidents met five times last year.	实际上，中美互动关系非常密切，去年两国首脑会面多达五次。


While those meetings also highlighted trade disputes, they also yielded heightened cooperation and significant accomplishments.	这些会谈既凸显了贸易争端，但也加强了双方的合作，取得了一些重大成果。


For example, the two states share a common interest in anti-terrorism efforts, and they have been collaborating to ensure container security and combat human trafficking.	例如，两国政府在反恐方面有共同的利益，双方已经合作确保集装箱安全和打击人口偷渡。


Their coordinated efforts to divert North Korea peacefully from its nuclear course have also vindicated bilateral cooperation when both sides can define a common security stake.	它们协调立场让朝鲜和平弃核，这也表明双方能够在共同的安全需求基础上开展合作。


Similarly, the two countries have a common interest in stabilizing mainland China’s relations with Taiwan.	同样地，两国在稳定中国大陆与台湾的关系方面也有共同的利益。


The current formula, maintaining the status quo, offers the highest common denominator.	当前这种维持现状的方式，最大程度地保障了双方的利益。


With this strategic understanding, there is good reason to expect that Hu’s talks with Bush on Taiwan’s recent termination of the National Unification Council will serve to reduce tensions.	有了这个战略理解，我们有理由期望胡锦涛与布什就台湾最近终止国统会运作的讨论，将有助于减少两岸的紧张状态。


China and the US both have much to gain by thwarting Taiwan’s move toward independence.	通过阻止台湾走向独立，中国和美国都会大有收获。


Nevertheless, to American eyes, other contentious issues are now emerging in relations with China.	然而，在美国人眼里，与中国的关系中正出现其它一些新的争议。


The recently released National Security Strategy outlines three, in particular: China’s global trade expansion, its military transparency, and its relations with “misruling” states.	最近发布的《美国国家安全战略报告》总结了三点，即中国的全球贸易扩张、军事透明度以及与“劣政”国家的关系。


The political cost of a serious compromise on these matters would be too high for China, but it does no harm to analyze them and find ways to enhance dialogue.	在这些问题上作出重大妥协的政治成本过于巨大，但是对之进行分析并找到加强对话的途径却也无伤大雅。


Among the three issues, military transparency seems to be the most sensitive and difficult to address.	在这三个问题中，军事透明度好像最敏感也最棘手。


Nevertheless, given the large size of China’s armed forces, which currently stands at 2.3 million, a rough calculation would indicate that monthly spending per soldier is at most 2,500 yuan on average – too low to recruit and retain competitive staff.	然而，考虑到中国庞大的武装力量，现在有230万的常备军，粗略计算平均每月至多为每个成员支出2500元，投入之少以致无法补充和保留有竞争力的人员。


But if China wants to raise the military budget to improve the quality of its army, the conflict with the demands of fiscal stability could make military transparency important for domestic reasons, and China might no longer view it as being off limits in its relations with the US.	但是，如果中国想要增加军费预算来提高军队素质，那么，与国内财政稳定要求之间的竞争可能会使防务透明变得重要，届时中国政府可能将不再把军事透明度问题视为与美国关系的禁区。


Above all, we must bear in mind the maturation of Sino-US relations in recent years.	最重要的是，我们必须记住近年来中美关系已经逐渐成熟。


A mature bilateral relationship is one in which even difficult issues can be discussed routinely and promptly.	一个成熟的双边关系意味着棘手的问题可以得到例行和迅速的讨论。


There is no question that such a framework has already been established in relations with the US.	毫无疑问，中美关系之间已经建立了这样一个框架。


We will now see how Hu uses that framework – and thus what imprint he leaves on the bilateral relationship – in meeting the current challenges.	我们现在将拭目以待，关注胡锦涛主席在应对这些挑战时将如何使用这个框架，以及他将在双边关系上留下什么印记。


The Climate’s Low-Hanging Fruit	唾手可得的气候成果


NEW YORK – Next month, signatories to the 1989 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer will convene in Kigali, Rwanda, to consider an amendment to the treaty that would gradually reduce, and eventually eliminate, the use of hydrofluorocarbons.	纽约——下个月，1989年臭氧层消耗物质蒙特利尔议定书的签署国将齐聚卢旺达首都基加利审议一份协议修正案，以逐渐减少、乃至最终消除氢氟碳化物（HFC）的使用。


HFCs, which are one of the six main greenhouse gases, are commonly used in air conditioners and refrigeration systems worldwide.	氢氟碳化物现为六大主要温室气体之一，在世界各地的空调和制冷系统中得到普遍应用。


The amendment would be a boon for sustainable development, and could prevent the release of as much as 100-200 billion tons of climate-changing emissions by 2050.	该修正案无疑是可持续发展的福音，到2050年可以防止高达1000-2000吨改变气候的气体被排放到空气中。


That would be enough to take the world a quarter of the way toward achieving the 2º Celsius global-warming target set by the December 2015 Paris climate agreement.	仅此一项，世界就足以完成2015年12月巴黎气候协定所设立的全球变暖2摄氏度目标四分之一的任务。


The Montreal Protocol was established to repair the ozone layer, which protects all life on the planet from deadly levels of ultraviolet rays.	蒙特利尔议定书的目的是修复臭氧层，后者为地球上所有生物免受紫外线的致命伤害提供了保护。


So far, it has been a remarkable success, with nearly 100 ozone-destroying chemicals phased out over the past three decades.	到目前为止，这项工作取得了了不起的成功，过去三十年来共有近100种破坏臭氧层的化学物质逐步停止使用。


The ozone layer is healing and, according to the latest estimates, it could recover by 2065, saving trillions of dollars in global health-care and agriculture costs.	臭氧层正在恢复，最新预测显示，到2065年臭氧层可能恢复如初，从而节约数万亿美元的全球医疗和农业开支。


Much of this improvement is thanks to HFCs, which are excellent ozone-friendly alternatives to older chlorofluorocarbons, which have been phased out.	取得上述改进多亏氢氟碳化物，它们可以对臭氧层起保护作用，因此成为现已淘汰的原有氯氟烃完美的替代物。


However, HFCs, some of which are 4,000 times more potent as greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide, are a disaster for climate change, and their use is still increasing annually by 10%.	但有些氢氟碳化物比二氧化碳的温室效应高四千倍，对气候变化而言是一场灾难，而且它们的使用仍在以每年10%的速度增加。


It thus makes sense to focus on HFCs in taking action on climate change.	因此，主要靠淘汰氢氟碳化物来控制气候变化是合理的选择。


For starters, reducing them can yield economic benefits, owing to the significant energy-efficiency improvements afforded by newer air-conditioning and refrigeration systems.	首先，减少氢氟碳化物的使用可以产生经济效益，因为新的空调和制冷系统可以使能效显著提高。


Just phasing in more efficient air-conditioning systems would be the emissions equivalent of retiring 2,500 medium-size peak power plants (power plants that come on-stream during periods of high demand, such as during the summer).	仅逐步采用能效更高的空调系统一项就相当于停用2，500座中等规模峰值电站（即仅在用电高峰期，如夏季投产的电站）所减少的排放。


In China, switching to climate-friendly refrigerants and boosting the energy efficiency of air conditioning and refrigeration could lead to the equivalent in emissions savings of eight Three Gorges hydroelectric dams.	在中国，改用气候友好型制冷剂和提高空调及制冷系统能效可以节约的排放相当于八座三峡水电大坝。


In India, the switch could be equal to two more of the Indian government’s current National Solar Mission, which promotes solar-energy penetration and the construction of new rooftop and ground-mounted solar plants.	在印度，完成改造的效果两倍于印度政府目前的国家太阳能计划，这项计划旨在促进太阳能渗透和新型屋顶及地面发电厂的建设。


Many countries – including the European Union and the United States, as well as Belize, Burkina Faso, Colombia, Egypt, Serbia, and Yemen – already recognize these far-reaching benefits and are taking unilateral action to phase out HFCs.	欧盟、美国、伯利兹、布基纳法索、哥伦比亚、埃及、塞尔维亚和也门等很多国家已经认识到对未来的深远影响，正在采取单边措施淘汰氢氟碳化物。


A strong HFCs agreement in Kigali would add momentum to these efforts and provide financial support for developing countries that want to move to newer technologies but currently can’t afford it.	在基加利强势签署氢氟碳化物协议将推动上述工作的开展，为希望采用新技术但囿于目前财力不足的发展中国家提供资金支持。


In the private sector, retail giants such as Walmart, Nestle, and Tesco have joined the Consumer Goods Forum, a cooperative climate initiative, and agreed to phase out products with HFCs.	沃尔玛、雀巢和乐购等私营部门零售巨头也已加入消费者商品论坛，这是一项同意逐步淘汰氢氟碳化物的气候合作计划。


The United Nations and Greenpeace, through an initiative called “Refrigerants, Naturally!”, are working with Coca-Cola, Pepsico, Redbull, and Unilever to do the same.	联合国及绿色和平组织正在通过“制冷剂，自然选择！ ”计划与可口可乐、百事可乐、红牛和联合利华合作推进这项工作。


The Kigali meeting is set to yield a strong HFCs amendment.	基加利会议无疑将强势签署一份氢氟碳化物修正案。


However, some countries in especially hot parts of the world heavily worry that climate-friendly alternatives for their essential air conditioning may not function as well.	但尤其是世界炎热地区的一些国家非常担心其关键空调系统会不会因改用气候友好型替代品而降低制冷效果。


Any agreement can account for those concerns through a temporary exemption for those countries, while others move ahead with newer systems to demonstrate their effectiveness.	任何协议都可以为上述国家提供临时性豁免条款，并要求其他国家采用新系统以证明其有效性。


A warming planet is already having a devastating impact on some of the world’s most vulnerable populations, and it will only continue to do so.	全球变暖已经对世界各国某些最弱势群体产生了毁灭性的影响，而且这种影响还会继续产生。


Ultimately, all countries will have to find a way forward on reducing HFCs and climate change generally, through national action plans and emissions reductions agreed to under the 2015 Paris agreement.	最终，所有国家必须按照2015年巴黎协议规定，通过国家行动计划和减排计划找到控制氢氟碳化物及一般气候变化的有效方式。


Frameworks established by sister agreements like the Montreal Protocol can help to do this.	蒙特利尔议定书等姊妹协议设定的框架可以协助达到这一目标 。


HFCs will also be a central topic at the next major UN climate change conference, COP22, which convenes in Marrakesh, Morocco, in November.	氢氟碳化物也将成为今年11月即将在摩洛哥马拉喀什召开的下一届主要联合国气候变化会议COP22的核心议题。


We are confident that the governments preparing to meet in Kigali understand the need for a strong HFCs amendment, which would give momentum to other agenda items, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, in Marrakesh.	我们相信即将在基加利召开会议的各国政府理解强势氢氟碳化物修正案的必要性，该修正案可以推动马拉喀什联合国可持续发展目标等其他议程项目。


If the world is to succeed in quickly reducing global emissions to prevent climate change from reaching catastrophic levels, reducing HFCs is a sensible – perhaps the most sensible – first step.	如果世界想迅速降低全球排放以防止发生灾难性的气候变化，减少氢氟碳化物排放是明智——也许是最明智的——第一步。


Hypocrisy on the High Seas?	公海上的伪善


Thirty years ago, Australian vessels, with the government’s blessing, killed sperm whales off the West Australian coast.	三十年前，澳大利亚的船只在政府的支持下在澳大利亚的西海岸捕杀抹香鲸。


Last month, Australia led international protests against Japan’s plan to kill 50 humpback whales.	上个月，澳大利亚带头对日本计划捕杀50头座头鲸的行为发起国际抗议。


Japan, under mounting pressure, announced that it would suspend the plan for a year or two.	日本在越来越大的压力下宣布它将把这项计划搁置一到两年。


The change in public opinion about whaling has been dramatic, and not only in Australia.	公众对捕鲸行为的看法已经发生了戏剧性的改变，这样的改变把仅仅发生在澳大利亚。


Greenpeace began the protests against Australian whaling, and the government appointed Sydney Frost, a retired judge, to head an inquiry into the practice.	绿色和平组织首先对澳大利亚的捕鲸行为发出抗议，而政府任命了一位名叫弗罗斯特的退休法官领导对这一做法进行调查。


As a concerned Australian and a philosophy professor working on the ethics of our treatment of animals, I made a submission.	作为一名关心此事件的澳大利亚人和研究我们对待动物的伦理问题的哲学教授，我提出了自己的看法。


I did not argue that whaling should stop because whales are endangered. I knew that many expert ecologists and marine biologists would make that claim.	我并没有说停止捕鲸是因为鲸鱼濒临灭绝，因为我知道许多生态学专家和海洋生物学家会提出这样的观点。


Instead, I argued that whales are social mammals with big brains, capable of enjoying life and of feeling pain – and not only physical pain, but very likely also distress at the loss of one of their group.	我指出的是鲸鱼是有着发达的大脑、能够享受生活和感觉疼痛的群居哺乳动物，不仅仅是身体的疼痛，很有可能还会对失去它们群体中的某个成员感到痛苦。


Whales cannot be humanely killed – they are too large, and even with an explosive harpoon, it is difficult to hit the whale in the right spot.	鲸鱼不能被少受痛苦地杀死，因此它们体型太庞大。 即便用带炸药的捕鲸叉，也很难击中鲸鱼身体的正确部位。


Moreover, whalers do not want to use a large amount of explosive, because that would blow the whale to pieces, while the whole point is to recover valuable oil or flesh.	此外，捕鲸者并不愿意使用大量的炸药，因为那样会把鲸鱼炸成碎片，而他们想要的是获得值钱的鱼油或肉。


So harpooned whales typically die slowly and painfully.	所以被捕鲸叉击中的鲸鱼通常会缓慢而又痛苦地死去。


Causing suffering to innocent beings without an extremely weighty reason for doing so is wrong.	给无辜的生命造成痛苦而没有特别重要的理由是错误的。


If there were some life-or-death need that humans could meet only by killing whales, perhaps the ethical case against it could be countered.	如果有什么重大的需求使人类必须要捕杀鲸鱼，那么这里面的伦理问题也许可以不去考虑。


But there is no essential human need that requires us to kill whales.	但是并不存在什么重大的人类需求需要我们去捕杀鲸鱼。


Everything we get from whales can be obtained without cruelty elsewhere.	我们从鲸鱼身上获得的一切东西都可以用不残忍的方式从其他地方得到。


Thus, whaling is unethical.	因此，捕鲸是不符合伦理的。


Frost agreed.	弗罗斯特对此表示同意。


He said that there could be no doubt that the methods used to kill whales were inhumane – he even described them as “most horrible.”	他说毫无疑问捕杀鲸鱼的方式是非人道的，他甚至把这些方式描述为是“极其恐怖的”。


He also mentioned “the real possibility that we are dealing with a creature which has a remarkably developed brain and a high degree of intelligence.”	他还提到了“我们对待一种大脑高度发展并且有很高智力的生物的真正可能性”。


Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser’s conservative government accepted his recommendation that whaling be stopped, and Australia soon became an anti-whaling nation.	弗雷泽总理领导的保守党政府接受了他停止捕鲸活动的建议，并且澳大利亚很快成为了一个反对捕鲸的国家。


While Japan has suspended its plan to kill humpback whales, its Japanese whaling fleet will still kill about 1,000 other whales, mostly smaller minke whales.	尽管日本搁置了它捕杀座头鲸的计划，但是日本的捕鲸船还是会捕杀大约1000头其他种类的鲸鱼，其中大部分是体型较小的小须鲸。


Japan justifies its whaling as “research,” because the International Whaling Commission’s rules allow member nations to kill whales for such purposes.	日本辩解说捕鲸是用于进行“研究”，因为国际捕鲸委员会的规则允许成员国进行带有这种目的的捕鲸活动。


But the research seems to be aimed at building a scientific case for a resumption of commercial whaling; so, if whaling is unethical, then the research itself is both unnecessary and unethical.	但是研究的目的似乎只是为了给恢复商业捕鲸提供一个科学的依据； 因此，既然捕鲸是不符合伦理的，那么研究本身既不必要也是不符合伦理的。


Japan says that it wants the discussion of whaling to be carried out calmly, on the basis of scientific evidence, without “emotion.”	日本说它希望有关捕鲸的讨论能够被平静地进行、建立在科学证据的基础上而不带有“感情色彩”。


The Japanese think that humpback whale numbers have increased sufficiently for the killing of 50 to pose no danger to the species.	日本人认为座头鲸的数量已经大量增加，捕杀50头不会对种群造成任何危害。


On this narrow point, they might be right.	就狭义的观点而言，他们也许是正确的。


But no amount of science can tell us whether or not to kill whales.	但是没有任何科学告诉我们应该还是不应该捕杀鲸鱼。


Indeed, Japan’s desire to continue to kill whales is no less motivated by “emotion” than environmentalists’ opposition to it.	事实上，日本希望继续捕杀鲸鱼背后的“感情色彩”丝毫不亚于环保主义者对它的反对声。


Eating whales is not necessary for the health or better nutrition of the Japanese.	食用鲸鱼对于日本人的健康来说既非必需，也不会带来更好的营养。


It is a tradition that they wish to continue, presumably because some Japanese are emotionally attached to it.	这只是一种他们希望延续下去的传统，可能只是出于某些日本人对它的情感依恋而已。


The Japanese do have one argument that is not so easily dismissed.	但是日本人提出的一种观点并不是那么容易被驳斥的。


They claim that Western countries object to whaling because, for them, whales are a special kind of animal, as cows are for Hindus.	他们声称西方国家反对捕鲸只是因为对他们来说鲸鱼是一种特别的动物，就像母牛在印度人心目中的地位。


Western nations, the Japanese say, should not try to impose their cultural beliefs on them.	日本人认为西方国家不应该把他们的文化信仰强加于他们头上。


The best response to this argument is that the wrongness of causing needless suffering to sentient beings is not culturally specific.	对这种说法最好的回答是认为对有知觉的生物造成不必要的伤害是错误的行为并不是哪种文化所专有的看法。


It is, for example, one of the first precepts of one of Japan’s major ethical traditions, Buddhism.	事���上这也是日本主要的伦理传统之一佛教最重要的戒律之一。


But Western nations are in a weak position to make this response, because they inflict so much unnecessary suffering on animals.	但是西方国家在做出这种回答时却也有自己的软肋，因为他们自己也给动物造成了许多不必要的痛苦。


The Australian government strongly opposes whaling, yet it permits the killing of millions of kangaroos each year – a slaughter that involves a great deal of animal suffering.	澳大利亚政府强烈反对捕鲸，但是它允许每年捕杀数百万头袋鼠，一种会给动物造成巨大痛苦的屠杀。


The same can be said of various forms of hunting in other countries, not to mention the vast amount of animal suffering caused by factory farms.	同样地其他国家也进行着各种形式的捕杀活动，更别提养种场给动物造成的大量的巨大痛苦了。


Whaling should stop because it brings needless suffering to social, intelligent animals capable of enjoying their own lives.	捕鲸活动应该停止，因为它给有能力享受它们自己生活的群居、有智能的动物造成了不必要的伤害。


But against the Japanese charge of cultural bias, Western countries will have little defense until they address the needless animal suffering in their own backyards.	但是要驳斥日本人所谓文化差异的说法，西方国家只有在他们自己的后院解决了不必要地伤害动物的问题后才能给予他们有力的回击。


Stopping a Dirty Bomb	阻止脏弹


VIENNA – Nuclear terrorism is, in the words of US President Barack Obama, “the gravest danger we face.”	维也纳—核恐怖主义是——用美国总统奥巴马的话说——“我们所面临的最大的危险。


But while few would dispute this characterization, the world has unfinished business in minimizing the threat.	”然而，尽管很少有人会质疑这一论断，但尽量减小这一威胁仍是全世界未竟的事业。


Ten years after world leaders agreed to amend the landmark 1987 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) to make it harder for terrorists to obtain nuclear material, the new measures have yet to enter into force.	全球领导人同意修订里程碑式的1987年核材料实物保护公约（CPPNM）以使恐怖分子更加难以获得核材料已经过去了十年，但仍没有新措施出台。


The resulting vulnerability needs to be addressed urgently.	由此带来的脆弱性急需得到解决。


In July 2005, signatories to the CPPNM agreed to amend the Convention to address the risk of terrorism more effectively.	2005年7月，CPPNM签署国同意修订该公约，以更有效地解决恐怖主义风险。


The new measures that were introduced would make it more difficult for terrorists to cause a widespread release of radioactive material by attacking a nuclear power plant or detonating a radioactive dispersal device – commonly known as a dirty bomb.	所采取的新措施将使恐怖分子更加难以通过袭击核电站或引爆放射性装置——即常说的脏弹——大量释放放射性物质。


But before the amendment can enter into force, two-thirds of the 152 signatories to the original convention must ratify it.	但该修订案修订前，必须经过原始公约的152个签署国的三分之二批准。


While significant progress has been made – in July, the US, Italy, and Turkey did so – at least 14 more countries are needed.	尽管取得了重大进展——7月份，美国、意大利和土耳其批准了这一修订案——但仍然需要14个国家的批准。


The fact that there has never been a major terrorist attack involving nuclear or other radioactive material should not blind us to the severity of the threat.	从未有重大恐怖袭击涉及到核物质或放射性物质，这一事实不应该蒙蔽我们对该威胁的严重性的认识。


There is evidence that terrorist groups have tried to acquire the material needed to construct a crude nuclear explosive device, or a dirty bomb.	证据表明，恐怖组织曾经试图获得制造原始核爆装置或脏弹的材料。


In 2011, for example, Moldovan police seized highly enriched uranium from a group of smugglers who were trying to sell it.	比如，2011年，摩尔多瓦警方从走私者手中缴获了高浓缩铀，走私者正在试图出售这些铀。


The smugglers, exhibiting a worrying level of technical knowledge, had tried to evade detection by building a shielded container.	他们具有令人担忧的高技术知识水平，并试图通过制造屏蔽容器逃避检测。


In this case, the story ended happily.	这个案例以喜剧结尾。


Thanks to efforts by Moldova, with the assistance of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to boost its nuclear security capabilities, the material was identified and confiscated, and the smugglers were arrested.	感谢摩尔多瓦在加强核安全能力方面的努力和国际原子能机构的协助，这批核材料被查出并没收，走私者也被绳之以法。


There is no way to know whether the smuggling effort uncovered in Moldova is an outlier or the tip of a very large iceberg.	无从知道在摩尔多瓦败露的走私图谋是一次意外还只是冰山一角。


But one thing is certain: the amount of nuclear material in the world is increasing.	但有一点是肯定的：全世界核材料数量正在增加。


Since 1999, the amount of such material being used for peaceful purposes has increased by 70% – a trend that will continue as the use of nuclear power grows.	自1999年以来，用于和平目的的此类材料的数量增加了70%——而随着核电使用量的增加，这一趋势还会继续下去。


It is essential that effective measures are in place to ensure that these materials are not misused or misplaced, whether accidentally or intentionally.	采取有效措施确保这些材料不被滥用和乱放（不管是意外还是有意为之）至关重要。


Since 1995, the IAEA’s member states have reported nearly 2,800 incidents involving radioactive material escaping regulatory control.	自1995年以来，国际原子能机构成员国报告了近2,800起放射性材料泄露至常规控制范围之外的事故。


Although only a handful of these incidents involved material that could be used to make a nuclear explosive device, a relatively small amount of radioactive material could be combined with conventional explosives to create a dirty bomb.	尽管只有其中一小部分事故牵涉到能用于制造核爆装置的材料，但相对较小量的放射性材料可以和常规爆炸物混合，制造脏弹。


Such a weapon could be capable of killing many people, contaminating large urban areas, and sparking mass panic.	这类武器可以杀掉很多人，污染大片城镇地区，并营造巨大的恐慌。


Much has been achieved in the secure management of nuclear material since the attacks on the United States in September 2001 prompted a renewed focus on the risks of terrorism.	自2001年9月美国遭遇袭击促使人们重新开始关注恐怖主义风险以来，人们在确保核材料安全管理方面取得了重大成就。


Many countries have instituted effective measures to prevent the theft, sabotage, or illegal transfer of nuclear or other radioactive material, and security at many nuclear facilities has been improved.	许多国家采取了有效措施防止失窃、破坏或非法运输核和其他放射性材料，而许多核设施的安全也得到了改进。


But much more needs to be done.	但还有许多事情要做。


The original Convention focused only on the international transport of nuclear material, and did not cover the protection of nuclear facilities.	原始公约只注重核材料的国际运输，并未涉及核设施的保护问题。


The amendment adopted ten years ago would oblige countries to protect nuclear facilities and any nuclear material used, stored, or transported domestically.	十年前提出的修正案规定各国有义务保护核设施和所有在国内被使用、储存或运输的核材料。


It would expand cooperation on locating and recovering stolen or smuggled nuclear material and coordinate the response to any attack on a nuclear facility.	该修正案扩大了在定位和缴获失窃或走私核材料方面的合作，并协调对任何针对核设施的袭击的响应。


It would also make nuclear trafficking a criminal offense and require signatories to cooperate on improving national systems of physical protection and minimizing the consequences of sabotage.	该修正案还规定贩核为刑事罪，要求签署国合作改善国家实体保护系统、让核破坏的后果最小化。


Protecting nuclear material is not just an issue for countries that use nuclear power.	保护核材料并非只是用核电的国家的问题。


Terrorists and criminals will try to exploit any vulnerability in the global security system.	恐怖分子和犯罪分子会试图利用全球安全体系的任何弱点。


Any country, in any part of the world, could find itself used as a transit point – just as any country could become the target of an attack.	任何国家，不管它位于世界那个部分，都可能成为中转点——正如任何国家都可能成为袭击目标。


Effective international cooperation is critically important.	有效的国际合作具有关键重要性。


The consequences of a major security failure could be a catastrophe that transcends borders.	重大安全失败可能成为跨越国界的灾难。


All countries must take the threat of nuclear terrorism seriously.	所有国家都必须认真对待核恐怖主义威胁。


The single most effective way to do so would be to ensure that the amendment to the CPPNM enters into force as soon as possible.	而应对核恐怖主义威胁的最有效的办法是确保CPPNM修正案尽快生效。


America’s Late Imperial Dilemma	美国的末期帝国主义难题


NEW YORK – US President Barack Obama is under attack – from so-called liberal hawks, more or less to the left of center, as well as from active interventionists on the right – for being a weak president, leading a war-weary (even world-weary) America in retreat.	纽约—美国总统奥巴马正在遭到抨击，说他作为总统表现太软弱，领导着一个撤退中的厌战（甚至厌世）的美国。 抨击者有强硬自由派（或多或少左倾或走中间路线），也有右翼积极干预主义者。


Obama’s critics, whether on the left or the right, believe that the United States has a unique calling to impose its will on the world.	不管左右，奥巴马的批评者认为美国有向世界施加意愿的独一无二的使命。


The only difference is that the former justify their views with talk of democracy and human rights, while the latter do not need any such justification, because, after all, America is the greatest country on earth.	唯一的区别在于左翼用民主和人权论证自己的观点，而右翼不需要任何论证，因为毕竟美国是世界上最强大的国家。


Either way, the premise that the US should lead forcefully rests on the idea that without a benevolent hegemonic power to police the world, chaos will ensue and more malevolent forces will take over.	无论如何，美国应该强力领导世界的前提建立在这样的观点上：没有仁慈的超级霸权充当世界警察，世界就会陷入混乱，就会有邪恶势力主宰世界。


This opinion was expressed most clearly in a recent article by the conservative foreign-policy thinker Robert Kagan.	这一观点在保守派外交政策思想家罗伯特·卡甘（Robert Kagan）的最新文章中表露无遗。


Kagan’s argument is that other countries cannot be relied upon to behave responsibly without strong US leadership.	卡甘的论点是，没有强大的美国的领导，就不可能依靠其他国家的负责任的行为。


Like other hawks, he warns not only that dictators will behave badly if given the chance, which is certainly plausible, but also that democratic allies need to be kept in their place by a firm hegemonic hand.	与其他鹰派一样，他警告说，不仅独裁一有机会就会作恶（这个警告相当靠谱），民主盟国也需要稳固的霸权力量使其各就各位。


In East Asia, for example, China must be “hemmed in” by strong US allies.	比如，在东亚，必须由美国的强大盟友将中国“包围”。


But if Japan, America’s main ally in the region, were “much more powerful and much less dependent on the United States for its security,” it, too, should not be trusted.	但如果美国的主要东亚盟友日本“过于强大，不再依赖美国保障其安全，”那么它也将不再值得信任。


Kagan may be right in thinking that a precipitous US retreat from East Asia could have dangerous consequences.	卡甘认为美国急匆匆地从东亚撤出可能带来危险后果，这是对的。


But this argument has the familiar whiff of the late stages of empire.	但这一观点颇有帝国斜阳之感。


The European imperial powers of the twentieth century would periodically hold out the distant prospect of independence to their colonial subjects – but not yet, not before they were ready, not before their Western masters had educated them to take care of themselves responsibly.	二十世纪欧洲帝国主义列强都会抗拒殖民地独立的遥远前景——但不是当下，不是在准备好之前，不是在西方宗主国教育它们如何负责任地自顾之前。


How long this education might take was anybody’s guess.	教育如何自顾需要多久则因国而异。


That is the paradox of imperialism.	这是帝国主义的一个悖论。


As long as the colonized are under the imperial cosh, they can never truly be ready, because the authority to run their own affairs, responsibly or not, was taken away from them.	只要被殖民者身处帝国统治之下，他们就不可能真正准备好，因为自主的威权——不论是否负责——已经从他们中间抽走了。


Empires can impose order and stability for a long time; but imperialists – rather like many Americans today – become tired, and their subjects grow restless.	帝国可以在相当长的时间内带来秩序与稳定； 但帝国主义者——就像很多今天的美国人——开始变得厌倦，他们的殖民地则越来越躁动。


The imperial order becomes brittle, and, as Kagan rightly notes, when the old order finally breaks down, mayhem often follows.	帝国秩序变得十分脆弱，而卡甘也正确地指出，旧秩序最终会被打破，随之而来的往往是蓄意破坏。


That happened in India in 1947, when the British left, Pakistan broke away, and roughly a million Hindus and Muslims died in mutual slaughter.	1947年的印度就是如此，当时，英国人走了，巴基斯坦分裂出去了，大约一百万印度教和穆斯林死于互相杀戮。


But does this really mean that the British Raj should have lasted longer?	但这真的意味着英属印度应该继续存在吗？


If so, how much longer?	若是，又应该继续存在多久？


It is just as plausible to argue that prolonged imperial rule could have made ethnic tensions worse.	认为延长帝国统治同样会导致种族冲突的观点同样有理。


After all, those tensions were largely the result of colonial divide-and-rule policies.	毕竟，这些冲突大部分是分而治之的殖民政策的后果。


So it is today, to some degree, with Pax Americana – a kind of imperial world order that was never a formal empire.	从某种程度上讲，今天的美式和平亦然，这是一种不以正式帝国面貌出现的帝国主义世界秩序。


Compared to most previous empires, it was relatively benign, though it is too easily forgotten how often the leader of the “Free World” subverted elected leaders and supported dictators, as in Chile, South Korea, El Salvador, Argentina, Indonesia, Guatemala, and so on.	与大部分昔日帝国相比，美式和平相对温和，尽管人们经常忘记“自由世界”领袖是如何经常颠覆民选领导人、扶持独裁者的，智利、韩国、萨尔瓦多、阿根廷、印度尼西亚、危地马拉等国都有过这种经历。


The much-vaunted “liberal order” policed by the US was a product of World War II and the Cold War.	被大肆吹嘘的由美国负责维持的“自由秩序”是第二次世界大战和冷战的产物。


Germany and Japan had to be kept down, the Communist powers had to be contained, and the old countries of Europe had to learn to live with one another under unifying pan-national institutions.	德国和日本必须被抑制，共产主义强国必须被遏制，昔日欧洲国家必须学会在统一的泛国家制度下共存。


All of this was made possible by American money and military might.	所有这些都因为美国的金元和军���而成为可能。


As a result, the Free World, in Western Europe and East Asia, became a US dependency.	结果，西方和西欧的自由世界沦为美国的附庸。


This cannot go on forever.	不可能永远如此。


Indeed, the arrangements are already fraying.	事实上，这一安排已经开始松动。


But then comes the old imperial paradox.	但随之而来的旧的帝国悖论。


The longer others remain dependent on the US, the less capable they will be of taking care of their own affairs, including their security.	其他国家依赖美国越久，就越没有能力自力更生处理事务，包括安全事务。


And, like an authoritarian parent, the US itself, despite its admonitions to its allies to pull their weight, is often loath to let go of its increasingly unruly dependents.	而美国就像是专制家长，尽管告诫盟友不要滥竽充数，但也往往不愿放弃日益不守规矩的依赖者。


When a new government came to power in Japan in 2009 and tried to break the postwar mold by initiating better relations with China and seeking to reduce its dependence on the US, the Obama administration sought to undermine this effort.	2009年，当日本新政府上台并试图改善与中国的悬系并减少对美国的依赖，从而打破战后模式时，奥巴马政府设法破坏了他们的努力。


The informal empire would not stand for that kind of insubordination.	美国这个隐形帝国不会支持这样的反抗。


In his recent foreign-policy speech at the US Military Academy at West Point, Obama barely mentioned East Asia.	在最近的西点军校外交政策演讲中，奥巴马几乎对亚洲只字未提。


But if any region would benefit from the Obama doctrine, which promises to shift from military to more political approaches to regional problems, it is East Asia.	但若问哪个地区从奥巴马主义——承诺在地区问题上更多采取政治方法而非军事方法——中获益最多，那就是亚洲。


Still, Obama’s instincts are right.	但是，奥巴马的直觉是正确的。


At least he has recognized the limits of America’s power to impose a global order by force.	至少他认识到美国靠武力推行全球秩序的实力界线。


His success as a president rests less on the good things he has done (although he has done plenty) than on the stupid things he has avoided, like getting into more unnecessary wars.	作为总统，他的成功不在于他所做的好事（尽管他做了不少好事），而在于他所避免的蠢事，比如去打不必要的战争。


This does not resolve the late imperial dilemma of how to reduce dependency on the hegemon without causing more tyranny and violence.	这并没有解决帝国末期难题：如何减少对霸权的依赖又不导致更多的暴政与暴力。


But that painful and risky process will have to be launched eventually, and it will be better served by Obama’s brand of caution than by the tough talk of his critics.	但这一痛苦又危险的过程最终总会发生，用奥巴马的招牌式谨慎来应对总比用他的批评者的强硬声音来应对好。


East Asia’s Sins of the Fathers	东亚父辈的罪过


NEW YORK – One way to look at the growing military tensions over a few tiny islands in the East China Sea is to see in recent events a straightforward case of power politics.	纽约——看待东中国海小岛引发军事局势紧张的方式之一是把近期事件解读为直截了当的强权政治。


China is rising, Japan is in the economic doldrums, and the Korean peninsula remains divided.	中国正在崛起、日本经济低迷、朝鲜半岛依然分裂。


It is only natural that China would try to reassert its historical dominance over the region.	中国试图在该地区重建历史领导地位是很正常的事。


And it is just as natural for Japan to feel nervous about the prospect of becoming a kind of vassal state (the Koreans are more accustomed to this role, vis-à-vis China).	但日本害怕未来沦为附庸也再自然不过（朝鲜人更习惯于在中国面前充当这样的角色）。


Being subservient to American power, as Japan has been since 1945, was the inevitable consequence of a catastrophic war.	1945年后日本屈服于美国强权是一场灾难性战争的必然结果。


Most Japanese can live with that.	多数日本人可以容忍。


But submission to China would be intolerable.	但他们却无法容忍屈服于中国。


And yet, because East Asian politics remains highly dynastic, a biographical explanation might be just as useful.	但由于东亚政治仍高度王朝化，从身世领域解读同样可能取得良好的效果。


Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, once the top industrial bureaucrat of wartime Japan.	日本首相安倍晋三是岸信介的孙子，岸信介曾是战时日本顶级的工业官僚。


Imprisoned by the Americans as a war criminal in 1945, Kishi was released without trial at the beginning of the Cold War, and was elected Prime Minister as a conservative in 1957.	1945年岸信介以战犯身份被美国人囚禁，冷战开始后未经审判即被释放，并于1957年以保守党身份当选首相。


Kishi was a nationalist with fascist tendencies during the 1930’s and 1940’s.	岸信介是20世纪三四十年代有法西斯倾向的民族主义者。


After the war, an equally deep aversion to Communism made him a staunch ally of the United States; Richard Nixon became a close friend.	战后，对共产主义的深恶痛绝让他成为美国的坚定盟友； 他和理查德·尼克松成了亲密的朋友。


His lifelong quest was to revise the pacifist Japanese constitution, written by the Americans just after the war, and turn Japan into a proud military power once more.	他毕生追求修改美国人在战后起草的日本和平宪法，再次把日本建成骄傲的军事强国。


Abe’s greatest wish is to complete the project that eluded his grandfather: abandon constitutional pacifism and bury the war crimes of Kishi’s generation, while remaining allied with the US against China.	完成祖父未竞的事业是安倍最大的愿望：放弃宪法和平主义并掩盖岸信介那代人的战争罪行，同时继续与美国结盟对付中国。


As a right-wing nationalist, Abe feels compelled to resist the dominance of China, if only rhetorically for the time being.	身为右翼民族主义者的安倍认为必须抵制中国的领导地位，哪怕到目前为止只能停留在口头上。


One of Kishi’s greatest Cold War allies – apart from Nixon – was the South Korean strongman President Park Chung-hee, who came to power in a military coup a year after Kishi resigned as prime minister.	在岸信介辞任首相一年后通过军事政变上台的韩国强人总统朴正熙是岸信介除去尼克松以外最大的盟友。


Park, too, had a dubious wartime career.	朴同样有着不光彩的战时历史。


Under the Japanese name of Takagi Masao, he served as an officer in the Japanese Imperial Army.	他曾用高木正雄这个日本名字担任日本皇军军官。


He graduated from a military academy in Manchuria, where Kishi had once ruled over an industrial empire that was built on Chinese slave labor.	他毕业于一所满洲军校，而岸信介曾在满洲统治由中国奴工组成的工业帝国。


Like Kishi, Park was a nationalist.	朴正熙和岸信介一样是民族主义者。


But, apart from his sentimental wartime connections to Japan, his anti-Communism was incentive enough to continue warm relations with the imperial power that had brutally colonized Korea for a half-century.	但除去战时与日本的感情联系，他的反共信念也足以让其与残酷奴役韩国半个世纪的强悍帝国保持友好关系。


Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s current president, is his daughter.	现任韩国总统朴槿惠是他的女儿。


Park Geun-hye adored her father at least as much as Abe loved his grandfather, but the result of her dynastic connection is the opposite of Abe’s.	朴槿惠之于其父的崇敬至少不亚于安倍之于祖父，但她的王朝关系却产生了与安倍相反的效果。


To be seen as a Korean nationalist today, she must distance herself from some of her father’s political ties, especially his links with Japan.	为塑造当今朝鲜民族主义者的形象，她必须疏远其父的政治关系，特别是和日本。


Though still admired by many South Koreans for rebuilding the country from the ruins of war, his legacy, like that of many members of the old conservative elite, is tainted by wartime collaboration.	尽管仍因为从战争废墟中重建国家而为众多韩国人所景仰，但是像很多老的保守派精英一样，战时的亲日合作玷污了他死后的名声。


So his daughter must confront Japan over territorial disputes, to avoid inheriting the stigma of her father’s colonial past.	因此他的女儿必须在领土争端中与日本对峙，以避免其父殖民主义恶名落到自己头上。


The case of the current Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, is perhaps the most complicated of the three.	中国现任领导人习近平的情况也许是三人之中最复杂的。


His father, Xi Zhongxun, was one of the top leaders of the Communist revolution.	其父习仲勋是共产主义革命的最高领导人之一。


A guerilla leader in the war against Japan, he helped to defeat Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists in China’s civil war, became a member of the Central Committee, and then chief of propaganda, Vice Premier, and Governor of Guangdong.	身为抗战游击队领袖，他协助在中国内战中打败了蒋介石的国民党，并历任中共中央委员会委员、宣传部长、副总理和广东省省长等职务。


An impeccable Communist career, one might think, giving his son no need to distance himself or to complete a frustrated ambition.	习仲勋无可挑剔的共产主义生涯令其子既无需有意疏远也没有未竞的事业需要完成。


But Xi’s nationalism, too, has a history.	但习的民族主义诉求同样根深蒂固。


Chairman Mao’s main aim was to consolidate his revolution at home.	毛主席的主要目标是巩固国内革命。


His nationalist credentials were so impressive that he could afford to be relatively easy on former enemies.	他的民族主义声誉是如此骄人，以致于他有资格对以前的敌人相对怀柔。


Territorial disputes over unimportant islands could be laid to rest.	次要岛礁等区域冲突可以按下不表。


He did not even bother to reclaim Hong Kong from the British.	他甚至懒得从英国手中收回香港。


It was only when Deng Xiaoping opened the door to trade with capitalist countries that anti-Japanese sentiments were deliberately stirred up.	故意挑动反日情绪直等到邓小平打开与资本主义国家的贸易大门之后。


Neither Marxism nor Maoism could be used to justify China’s joining the capitalist world.	无论马克思主义还是毛泽东思想都不能成为中国加入资本主义世界的借口。


This left an ideological vacuum, which old-fashioned nationalism soon filled.	由此造成的意识形态真空被老式民族主义迅速填补。


The more the leadership opened up the Chinese economy, the more it stoked popular anger over past wrongs, especially those committed by Japan.	领导层越是开放中国经济，民众对于过去犯下的错误、特别是日本的罪行就愈加怒火中烧。


The man who was most responsible for Deng’s Open Door policies was none other than Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun.	邓小平开放政策的始作俑者不是别人，正是习近平之父习仲勋。


Always a pragmatic Communist, the elder Xi had been the target of several purges under Mao, when relative moderates were frequently denounced as counterrevolutionaries.	身为务实共产党人的习仲勋经历了毛泽东的多次清洗，相对温和派经常在清洗行动中被打成反革命分子。


His son appears to follow in this pragmatic tradition, open to business with the world.	其子习近平似乎继承了其父的务实传统，在与世界接轨的同时开放经济。


That is why he, too, like Deng’s reformers, must burnish his nationalist credentials by standing up to Japan and asserting Chinese dominance in East Asia.	这也解释了他为什么像邓小平的改革派一样必须对日本采取强硬政策，并主张中国在东亚地区的领导地位。


None of these leaders – Xi, Abe, or Park – wants a real war.	习近平、安倍晋三和朴槿惠没有人希望真的开战。


Much of their posturing is for domestic consumption.	他们的强硬姿态主要用于国内消费。


One reason why they can engage in this dangerous brinkmanship is the continuing presence of the US as the regional policeman.	美国起到的区域警察作用使他们可以沉溺于如此危险的边缘政策。


America’s armed forces are the buffer between the two Koreas, and between China and Japan.	美军在朝韩、中日之间起到了缓冲的作用。


The US presence allows East Asia’s rival powers to act irresponsibly.	美国存在容许东亚对手国可以不负责任地行事。


The only thing that might change their behavior would be US withdrawal of its military force.	美国撤军可能改变他们的行为方式。


In that case, the three countries would have to come to terms with one another by themselves.	如果美国真的从东亚撤军，中、日、韩三国将不得不依靠自身力量达成协议。


But that is still regarded by the Americans, Japanese, Koreans, and probably even the Chinese as too much of a risk.	但在美国人、日本人、韩国人、甚至中国人看来这样冒的风险实在太大。


As a result, the status quo is likely to persist, which means that nationalist grandstanding over conflicting territorial claims is far from over.	因此现状有可能延续下去，也就是说在争议领土问题上民族主义的哗众取宠还远没有结束。


Abe’s Long March	安倍的长征


TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s coalition government has decided to “reinterpret” the postwar Japanese constitution.	东京—日本首相安倍晋三的联合政府决定“重新解释”战后宪法。