Without blushing, Trump cites “alternative facts,” denies the scientific method, and proposes massive budget cuts for public research, including on climate change, which he believes is a hoax.	特朗普可以面不改色地大谈“另类事实”，罔顾科学方法，提出要大幅削减公共研究包括气候变化研究的预算——他相信气候变化是一个骗局。


The protectionism advocated by Trump, Le Pen, and others poses a similar threat to the world economy.	特朗普、勒庞和其他人所鼓吹的保护主义对世界经济也造成了类似的威胁。


For three-quarters of a century, there has been an attempt to create a rules-based global economic order, in which goods, services, people, and ideas could move more freely across borders.	四分之三个世纪以来，人们做了大量努力建立一个基于规则的全球经济秩序，在这个秩序中，商品、服务、人力和思想能够自由跨国流动。


To the applause from his fellow populists, Trump has thrown a hand grenade into that structure.	在其民粹主义跟随者的掌声中，特朗普向这一结构扔了一颗手雷。


Given the insistence of Trump and his acolytes that borders do matter, businesses will think twice as they construct global supply chains.	特朗普及其党羽坚持边境很重要，因此，企业将在构建全球供应链时三思而后行。


The resulting uncertainty will discourage investment, especially cross-border investment, which will diminish the momentum for a global rules-based system.	由此导致的不确定性将阻碍投资，特别是跨国投资，而这将拖累基于规则的全球体系的动力。


With less invested in the system, advocates for such a system will have less incentive to push for it.	随着对这一体系的投资的减少，其支持者推动它的激励也将减少。


This will be troublesome for the entire world.	这对于全世界来说非常危险。


Like it or not, humanity will remain globally connected, facing common problems like climate change and the threat of terrorism.	不管你喜不喜欢，人类仍保持着全球连通性，面临着气候变化和保护主义威胁等共同问题。


The ability and incentive to work cooperatively to solve these problems must be strengthened, not weakened.	合作解决这些问题的能力和激励必须得到强化而不是削弱。


The lesson of all of this is something that Scandinavian countries learned long ago.	所有这些的教训便是斯堪的纳维亚国家在很久以前学到的教训。


The region’s small countries understood that openness was the key to rapid economic growth and prosperity.	该地区的小国明白，开放是快速经济增长和繁荣的关键。


But if they were to remain open and democratic, their citizens had to be convinced that significant segments of society would not be left behind.	但如果它们要保持开放和民主，公民就必须确信社会中的大部分细分群体不会落后。


The welfare state thus became integral to the success of the Scandinavian countries.	因此，福利国家成为斯堪的纳维亚国家成功的要素。


They understood that the only sustainable prosperity is shared prosperity.	它们明白，只有可持续的繁荣才是共同繁荣。


It is a lesson that the US and the rest of Europe must now learn.	这就是美国和欧洲其他国家现在必须汲取的教训。


Macron’s Labor Gambit	马克龙的劳工改革开局


CAMBRIDGE –At the end of August, French president Emmanuel Macron unveiled the labor-market overhaul that will make or break his presidency – and may well determine the future of the eurozone.	剑桥城——8月底，法国总统伊曼纽尔·马克龙公布对劳工市场进行重大改革，该举措将成就或摧毁其总统任期——而且很有可能决定欧元区未来的前景。


His goal is to bring down France’s stubbornly high rate of unemployment, just a shade below 10%, and energize an economy that badly needs a kick-start.	他的目标是降低法国仅比10%低一点的顽固高失业率，并为迫切需要推动的经济注入活力。


Labor reform has long been on France’s agenda.	劳工改革一直是法国的政治议程。


Practically every French administration in recent memory has tried to rewrite the country’s gargantuan labor code, typically failing in the face of trade union protests.	几乎近期每一届法国政府都曾试图修改该国庞大的劳工法，但每次都在工会的抗议下无疾而终。


Macron makes no bones about what he is up against: he has described it as a Copernican revolution.	马克龙面对阻力毫不犹豫：他将劳工改革形容为一次哥白尼式的革命。


But this time may well be different.	但这一次结果很可能会有所不同。


Even though the country’s second-largest union has called a general strike, indications are that Macron will have the political support he needs.	尽管法国第二大工会已经号召发起大罢工，但仍有迹象显示马克龙将会获得他所需要的政治支持。


Macron’s reforms aim at increasing what is euphemistically called labor-market flexibility.	马克龙的改革旨在增加被委婉地称为劳动力市场的灵活性。


The proposed reforms would make it easier for firms to dismiss employees, decentralize bargaining between employers and workers in small firms (by eliminating sector-level agreements), and introduce a ceiling on indemnity for wrongful dismissal, providing firms relief from the unpredictability of damages awarded through arbitration.	拟议中的改革将降低公司解雇员工的难度，（通过取消行业协议）分散小企业雇主和雇员之间的谈判权，并对非法解雇行为实行赔偿上限制，从而为企业遭受不可预测的仲裁损失提供救济。


Moreover, the reforms remove a requirement that linked mass layoffs at large companies to such firms’ global profitability; companies will now be permitted to fire workers solely on the basis of domestic profitability.	此外，改革取消了将大企业大规模裁员与公司全球盈利能力挂钩的规定； 企业现在可以仅凭国内盈利状况来裁减员工。


The logic behind Macron’s labor-market reforms has driven the structural-reform agenda of policy economists and international institutions ranging from the International Monetary Fund to the OECD during the last three decades.	马克龙劳工市场改革背后的逻辑推动了30年来从国际货币基金组织到经合组织的政策经济学家和国际机构的结构改革议程。


Greater flexibility, according to this view, will enable French firms to adjust more efficiently to changing market conditions, which in turn will make them more competitive and dynamic, giving the French economy a boost.	上述观点认为增强灵活性将使法国企业能更有效地适应市场环境变化，从而增强其活力和竞争力，进而对法国经济起到推动作用。


The idea that making it easier to fire workers will reduce, rather than increase, unemployment is not as crazy as it may sound.	认为降低解雇员工的难度将减少而非增加失业的想法并没有听起来那样疯狂。


If the costs of firing workers are prohibitively high, firms may not hire additional workers in a market upturn, for fear that they will be unable to reduce their labor costs in a future downturn.	如果解雇工人的成本过高，企业可能就不会在市场复苏期额外雇用工人，因为担心在未来的经济衰退期劳工成本无法下降。


Firing costs are hiring costs, as economists like to say.	解雇成本就是雇用成本，经济学家说。


Reduce firing costs, and you reduce hiring costs, too.	降低解雇成本，雇用成本也同时降低。


Whether a reduction in firing costs does boost employment depends on the balance of those two offsetting factors.	降低解雇成本是否能促进就业取决于如何在这两个对立的因素间达成平衡。


The outcome turns on whether firms are more constrained by the hiring costs or by the firing costs.	企业更多受制于雇用成本还是解雇成本决定了最终的结果。


In good times, when firms want to expand, it is the hiring costs that bind, and making it easier to fire workers will remove a key impediment to investment and capacity expansion.	在经济上行期，当企业想要扩张时，往往受到雇用成本的约束，而降低解雇员工的难度将消除投资和产能扩张过程中一个重要的阻碍因素。


In more pessimistic times, reducing firing costs will simply lead to more dismissals.	而在更加悲观的时期，降低解雇成本只会导致更多的解雇。


Which of these factors prevails depends on the state of aggregate demand and the “animal spirits” of employers.	这两种因素哪种起决定作用取决于总需求状况和雇主的“动物精神”。


This ambiguity explains why it has proved difficult to establish a clear empirical relationship between employment protection and labor-market performance, despite the enthusiasm of many economists and policymakers for flexibility-enhancing reforms.	这种模糊的关系解释了为什么尽管许多经济学家和决策者热衷于推行提高灵活性的改革措施，但事实证明在就业保护和劳动力市场绩效之间建立明确的实证关系是非常困难的。


There is considerable evidence that strong employment protection laws do reduce job turnover – the number of hires and fires.	有相当多的证据表明强势就业保护法的确抑制了岗位周转率——也就是雇用和解雇的人数。


But when it comes to overall employment and unemployment levels, “the jury is still out,” as a recent survey shows.	但是就整体就业和失业水平而言，近期的一份调查结果显示，“陪审团仍未能达成一致。


The comparative record gives us little confidence that the French reforms will produce a boost in employment.	”比较记录很难为我们提供信心，认为法国改革将会推动就业。


France is thought to have particularly cumbersome labor laws.	法国劳动法被认为尤其麻烦重重。


Yet many of the economies with which it competes have similarly strong labor-market protections.	但与法国竞争的诸多经济体也存在类似的强力劳动市场保护。


In fact, according to the OECD’s indicators of employment protection, German and Dutch workers under permanent contracts enjoy even greater security than French workers do.	事实上，经合组织就业保障指标显示，签订永久性合约的德国和荷兰工人享有比法国工人更高的安全度。


(Where the French system seems especially restrictive is with respect to temporary contracts.)	（法国体系看似尤其麻烦的地方是限制临时合同。 ）


By some measures, France was second only to Germany in terms of labor-market deregulation before the global financial crisis.	从某种角度看，全球金融危机爆发前法国的劳动力市场去管制化程度仅次于德国。


Yet unemployment levels in Germany and the Netherlands are a fraction of those prevailing in France.	但德国和荷兰的失业率却比法国低得多。


The real difference between these economies is that Germany and the Netherlands, unlike France, run large current-account surpluses.	这些经济体之间真正的区别在于德国和荷兰与法国不同，拥有大规模经常账户盈余。


This means that their economies receive a large boost from foreign demand.	这意味着他们的经济体受到外需的大幅推动。


France, by contrast, has a small current-account deficit.	相反，法国却有着小规模经常账户赤字。


Might reforms that increase labor-market flexibility give French industry a similar lift?	增强劳动力市场灵活性的改革是否也能提升法国工业？


Perhaps.	或许可以。


But that will require a sharp increase in French industrialists’ animal spirits.	但这需要法国企业家大幅提高其动物精神。


Psychology may eventually play a greater role than the details of the reforms themselves.	心理状态可能最终比改革本身的细节能够发挥更大的作用。


In such a technocratic discussion, it is easy to forget that what economists call “labor-market rigidities” are in fact a crucial component of the social bargain in advanced capitalist economies.	在这样的技术性探讨中，很容易忘记经济学家所说的“劳动力市场刚性”其实是发达资本主义国家社会契约的关键组成部分。


They provide income and employment security for workers whose lives might otherwise be subject to tumultuous upheavals.	它们为那些生活可能遭受动荡巨变的工人提供收入和就业保障。


And, as the Italian economist Giuseppe Bertola notes, they can be efficient even from a strictly economic perspective, because they facilitate the smoothing of labor incomes.	而且，就像意大利经济学家朱塞佩·贝托拉所指出的那样，就算严格从经济角度看，这些限制规则也可能同样有效，因为它们有助于平滑劳动力收入。


Macron’s entourage has been wisely telling anyone who will listen not to expect too much from the new labor code.	马克龙的随从人员已明智地告诉外界不要从新劳动法中预期太多。


The economics of the reforms suggest that they are unlikely to make a big difference on their own.	改革经济学表明仅靠相关措施来扭转趋势是不太可能的。


The trouble is that Macron has too few arrows in his quiver when it comes to lifting French economic growth.	问题在于马克龙在提升法国经济增长时可用的措施太少。


In terms of macroeconomic policy, his hands are tied in the eurozone, and there is little prospect that Germany will help by boosting its investment and spending.	在宏观经济政策方面，他的手脚被欧元区牢牢捆住，德国不太可能提高其投资和支出。


So, whether Macron likes it or not, his presidency is likely to be judged by the economic and political repercussions of his labor reforms.	因此，无论马克龙是否愿意，此次劳工改革的经济和政治影响很有可能成为其总统任期的评判要素。


Is the Shine Off Macron?	马克龙光环褪去？


GENEVA – Emmanuel Macron is on a winning streak.	日内瓦—马克龙节节胜利。


Within a year, he has gone from inexperienced political underdog, with no establishment backing, to President of the French Republic and leader of a newly created political party with an impressive parliamentary majority.	不出一年，他就从一位政坛菜鸟，在没有建制派支持的情况下，摇身一变成为法国总统，并领导新成立的政党在议会中赢得巨大的多数优势。


Can he keep it up?	他可以将胜势保持下去吗？


Macron owes his recent success not just to good luck, but also to his ability to build on any break that came his way.	马克龙最近的成功不仅要归功于幸运，也要归功于他利用裂痕的能力。


For voters who were feeling mistrustful of the political establishment, he managed to provide an appealing option that did not require a move to the fringes, whether right or left.	对那些不相信政治建制的选民来说，他成功地提供了一个有吸引力的选项，这个选项不需要左右站边。


He came to be seen as a smart disruptor of the disruptive populists.	他也被视为破坏性民粹主义的聪明的破坏者。


Macron’s economic program was particularly clever, as it responded impeccably to more than a decade of analyses of the ills afflicting the French economy.	马克龙的经济计划尤其聪明，完全针对十多年来对法国经济沉疴的分析。


He committed to freeing up the famously ossified labor market and alleviating an excessive and entrepreneurship-stifling tax burden.	他承诺要解放以僵化闻名于世的法国劳动力市场，减轻抑制了企业家精神的过重的税收负担。


He also pledged to shrink France’s unwieldy state, which now spends 57% of GDP per year, by reducing cumbersome regulations and rationalizing the outdated welfare system.	他还承诺要削减法国大而无当的国家（state），目前，国家花掉了GDP的57%。 他将通过梳理叠床架屋的监管、理顺陈旧的福利制度来实现这一点。


After his election, Macron upheld his reputation as a breath of fresh air, building a government composed of young people from all walks of life – inexperienced, maybe, but enthusiastic and smart.	当选后，马克龙保持了其新鲜空气的名声，组建了一个由来自社会各界的年轻人组成的政府——他们也许欠缺经验，但充满了热情和智慧。


Those who had long lamented France’s economic decline could not believe the miracle taking shape before their eyes.	那些长期以来一直唱空法国经济的人难以置信地看着奇迹在眼前展开。


But great expectations can herald great disappointment.	但期望越大，失望也有可能越大。


And early signals from the Macron administration are disquieting.	马克龙政府的初期信号令人担忧。


While the promised labor-market reform is well underway, and could be adopted as early as September, the administration’s macroeconomic program, articulated by Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, is a serious disappointment.	承诺的劳动力市场改革推进情况良好，可能从9月就开始实施，但由总理菲利普负责的政府的宏观经济计划，则非常令人失望。


Philippe has announced that he plans to cut public spending by a mere three percentage points of GDP over five years.	菲利普宣布他准备在未来五年仅仅削减三个百分点的GDP的公共支出。


He has postponed several clever pro-growth tax cuts, some until the end of Macron’s current term of office in 2022. A couple of days later, Macron changed tack and brought some of these cuts a bit forward.	他叫停了几项明智的、有利于增长的税收削减计划，其中几项要到马克龙第一个任期结束（2022年）后才有可能恢复。


Yet he intends to carry out in 2018 a general tax increase that was presented as a partial offset to the cuts.	但他又准备在2018年实施普遍的增税，称这是为了部分抵消减税。


In defense of this approach, Philippe cites the official national-accounts watchdog, the Cour des Comptes, which has reported serious budget overruns for 2017 – a result of disingenuous electoral promises by the departing president, François Hollande.	在为这一方针辩护时，菲利普引用了国民账户监督机构法国审计院（Cour des Comptes）。 审计院报告，2017年存在严重的预算超支——这是离任总统奥朗德不顾事实的选举承诺的结果。


The newcomers must therefore bring the deficit back down to 3% of GDP, as promised last year to France’s European partners.	因此，继任者必须让赤字回到GDP的3%，兑现去年向法国的欧洲伙伴许下的承诺。


It is, Philippe insists, a matter of credibility.	菲利普坚持说，这事关信誉。


But pleasing the bean counters in Brussels or Berlin threatens to undermine France’s incipient economic recovery – and, in turn, support for the country’s new president – at a moment when important and, at times, unpopular reforms must be pushed through.	但取悦布鲁塞尔或柏林的账房先生可能威胁到法国脆弱的经济复苏——并反过来威胁到新总统的支持率——而此时正逢法国必须兑现重要但常常不受欢迎的改革。


(As it stands, per capita GDP is now only slightly above its pre-crisis level, and unemployment began a slow decline just last year.)	（目前，人均GDP只略高于且几千水平，失业率在去年也才刚刚开始缓缓下降。


European leaders would probably prefer a little deficit slippage to the loss of popular support for France’s pro-Europe president, provided public spending is reduced.	）欧洲领导人可能更愿意接受赤字承诺稍稍延后，而不是法国的亲欧总统因为削减公共支出而导致支持率下降。


Macron must understand all of this.	马克龙必须明白所有这些。


So why he is taking such a macroeconomic risk?	那么，为什么他要冒这么大的宏观经济风险？


And, perhaps more important, is this indicative of what the rest of his presidency will look like?	以及，也许更重要的是，这是否对其剩余的总统生涯有一些暗示？


The most positive interpretation assumes that Macron has decided to focus on deep and courageous reforms, while approaching macroeconomic issues with caution, much like his predecessors, Nicolas Sarkozy and Hollande.	最积极的解释认为，马克龙已经决心要以深度果断的改革为重点，而在宏观经济问题上准备谨慎推进，一如其前任萨科齐和奥朗德。


Both initially rejected austerity only to end up adopting it.	萨科齐和奥朗德一开始都拒绝紧缩，后来才逐渐接受。


But Sarkozy and Hollande saw their public opinion ratings drop precipitously after their embrace of austerity.	但萨科齐和奥朗德在接受紧缩之前，他们的公众支持度就已经开始下降。


Does Macron think that his luck will continue, bringing, say, a stronger economic recovery than currently foreseen?	马克龙是认为他的好运会一直保持下去，为法国带来（比如）比目前的预期更加强劲的经济复苏吗？


Or does he simply believe that he is in a stronger position to survive disappointing growth and unemployment outcomes than his predecessors?	还是说，他只是认为自己地位比两位前任更加稳固，令人失望的增长和失业状况也奈何不了他？


In other words, is Macron being driven by faith or hubris?	换句话说，驱使马克龙做出决定的是信念还是自大？


The most disquieting interpretation of Macron’s decision-making is that he is already captured by his own administration.	对马克龙的决定的最悲观的解释是，他已经被他自己的政府所绑架。


Top French civil servants of the kind that he has assembled traditionally share two characteristics: they are overly cautious and they have a poor understanding of macroeconomic strategy.	他所组建的法国公务员体系最高层有两个传统特征：谨小慎微，以及对宏观经济战略的理解十分糟糕。


Given this, it seems likely that many in Macron’s administration take the European agreements very seriously, even too seriously, and are repelled by the idea of vigorous spending cuts, because their power is related to the size of the purse they control.	考虑到这一点，很有可能马克龙政府中的许多成员对待欧洲协议的态度是非常严肃的，甚至可能过于严肃，而对厉行减支深恶痛绝，因为他们的权力与他们所控制的钱袋的规模有关。


If this reading is correct, the French government will remain top-heavy, and the tax burden will remain suffocating.	如果这一解读正确，那么法国政府将依旧是头重脚轻，税收负担也将依旧沉重。


But there is a third possibility: Macron believes that, to advance his vision for the European Union, he must act impeccably on the European stage, meeting the most stringent German standards.	但还有第三种可能：马克龙相信，要推动他所构想的欧盟，他的欧洲政策必须无可指摘，满足最严苛的德国标准。


That approach would be reasonable if Macron really had a new vision for the EU.	如果马克龙真的有一个新的欧盟愿景，那么这一方针是合理的。


During the electoral campaign, he mostly just rehashed the traditional French view: a common European government and a eurozone finance minister, with a separate budget to finance public investment.	在选战期间，他大部分情况下只是重申传统的法国观念：一个共同的欧洲政府和一个欧元区财政部，以及各管各的公共投资融资预算。


Most other EU countries have already rejected that vision, and many believe that not even France itself would agree to the transfers of sovereignty that such reforms would imply.	其他欧盟国家大多拒绝这个愿景，许多人相信法国本身也不会同意这些改革所隐含的主权转移。


In any case, the EU is not at the point where it can discuss such radical steps, as its top priority still must be to fix what is broken: a half-baked banking union, a non-functioning Stability and Growth Pact, excessive regulation, and an empty immigration policy.	无论如何，欧盟还没有到达能够讨论如此激进的步骤的程度，它的重中之重仍然必须放在解决裂痕上：半生不熟的银行联盟、无法正常行使功能的稳定与增长公约、过度监管，以及空洞的移民政策。


Macron’s rapid ascent reflected his ability to say the right thing in the right circumstances.	马克龙的迅速崛起表明他有能力在正确场合说正确的话。


But it also meant that he moved into the Élysée Palace without having shown who he really is.	但这也意味着，他入主爱丽舍宫时还没有露出自己的真面目。


One hopes that he turns out to be the man reflected in that well-thought-out economic program on which he campaigned, not the one reflected in his macroeconomic policies since taking power.	我们希望他是他所提出的周密的经济计划所表现的那个人，而不是他执政以后所采取的宏观经济政策所表现的那个人。


Can Europe Sustain the Macron Moment?	欧洲能否维持马克龙时刻？


STOCKHOLM – At the start of 2017, many feared that the European project would experience a near-breakdown within the next year.	斯德哥尔摩——2017年年初，许多人担心欧洲计划接下来的一年会经历几近崩溃的命运。


The United Kingdom had decided to leave the European Union, the United States had elected a president who cheered the Brexiteers on, and populists running in the French and German elections posed a clear danger to European integration.	英国已经决定离开欧盟，美国选出了为脱欧势力欢呼的总统，而参与法国和德国大选的民粹主义分子则明确威胁到了欧洲一体化进程。


As we approach the start of 2018, the picture is very different.	当我们即将迎接2018年年初，局势已经完全不同。


The European project has not only survived, but may be gaining new momentum.	欧洲计划不仅幸存了下来，而且还有可能获得新的推动。


At least within the bubble of EU institutions in Brussels, one senses a newfound confidence.	至少在布鲁塞尔欧盟机构的泡沫中，人们重新找到了信心。


More than anyone else, French President Emmanuel Macron is at the center of this turnaround.	法国总统伊曼纽尔·马克龙比任何人都更处在这一趋势转折的核心。


His post-election victory speech in May was accompanied by the EU anthem, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy” – a strong symbolic gesture.	他在欧盟国歌（贝多芬的“欢乐颂”）的伴奏下进行了选举后的获胜演讲——这一强有力的姿态极具象征性。


Since then, Macron has launched or proposed one initiative after another to strengthen EU institutions, while taking a lead in European foreign policy.	从那以后，马克龙提出了一个又一个强化欧盟机构的倡议，同时在欧洲外交政策领域发挥了领导作用。


With German Chancellor Angela Merkel struggling to form a government after September’s general election, all eyes are now on Macron.	因为德国总理安格拉·默克尔正竭尽全力在9月大选后组建新政府，所有人的目光都盯住了马克龙。


The changing mood in Europe over the past year has been influenced by three factors in particular.	尤其有三大因素已经影响了过去一年欧洲的情绪变化。


The first is Brexit, which is undeniably causing problems for the British – and in turn causing most Europeans to begin to understand the extent to which their economies and societies are intertwined.	首先是英国脱欧，这无疑给英国人带来了问题——而且反过来又促使绝大多数欧洲人开始理解其经济和社会交织的程度。


The once-glorious country of Great Britain is now in a state of political agony as it tries to sort out the politics, economics, and logistics of leaving the bloc.	因为试图厘清后脱欧时期政治、经济和物流问题，曾经光荣一时的大不列颠王国现在正陷入到政治痛苦之中。


It is unlikely that voters in any other member state will envy the British experience.	任何其他成员国的选民都不太可能羡慕现在的英国。


The second factor is Donald Trump, whose US administration has a lower standing in Europe than any other in recorded history.	第二个因素是唐纳德·特朗普，他所领导的美国政府有史以来在欧洲的地位已经低到无以复加。


According to one recent poll, Germans now regard Trump as a greater threat to their country’s interests abroad than Russian President Vladimir Putin or North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.	据不久前进行的一次民调显示，德国人现在认为特朗普对他们国家利益的威胁比俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜独裁者金正恩等外国势力还要大。


In a true race to the bottom, Trump is ahead.	在比烂的竞赛中，特朗普是遥遥领先的。


Over the past year, European leaders have accepted that Europe will have to take more responsibility for its own affairs.	过去一年来，欧洲领导人已经认识到欧洲需要为自身事务承担更多责任。


After a vexing encounter with Trump at the G7 summit in Italy in May, Merkel summed up a sentiment that most other European leaders now share.	在5月意大利七国峰会上与特朗普一次令人恼怒的会面后，默克尔总结的观点现在得到了绝大多数欧洲领导人的认同。


“We Europeans must fight for our own future and destiny,” she said in an unscripted outburst at a campaign stop.	“我们欧洲人必须为自己的未来和命运而奋斗，”她在一次竞选活动中即兴脱稿大声疾呼。


“We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands.”	“我们欧洲人确实不得不将命运掌握在自己手中。 ”


The third factor is Putin’s Russia, which has continued to meddle in Western elections and act aggressively in Ukraine.	第三个因素是普京的俄罗斯，俄罗斯继续干涉西方选举并在乌克兰采取激进行动。


All told, the “BTP effect” – Brexit, Trump, Putin – has convinced even skeptical Europeans that EU-level cooperation is necessary.	总而言之，“BTP效应”——英国脱欧、特朗普、普京——已经让即使持怀疑态度的欧洲人相信欧盟层面的合作是必不可少的。


But, in addition to the impetus of the BTP effect, Europe is being propelled by stronger economic growth.	但除BTP效应的推动外，更强劲的经济增长正在推动欧洲。


The dark days of the euro crisis have begun to fade into memory, as has the refugee crisis of late 2015, which had a profound political effect on Germany, Sweden, and other countries.	欧元危机的黑暗日子已经开始在记忆中消退，曾几何时对德国、瑞典和其他国家造成深刻政治影响的2015年年末难民危机也已经开始从人们的记忆中逐渐淡出。


Although the huge task of deepening EU integration remains unfinished, the political and economic conditions for seeing that process through have improved.	尽管深化欧盟一体化的艰巨任务仍然有待完成，但完成上述进程的政治和经济条件已经开始改善了。


At the same time, the EU has suddenly emerged as the preserver of the liberal world order.	与此同时，欧盟已经突然之间成为了自由世界秩序的守护者。


In September, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada entered into force.	9月，欧盟与加拿大签署的“全面经济贸易协定”（CETA）正式生效。


And, since then, the EU has moved closer to finalizing an even more important trade agreement with Japan, and, separately, with the founding countries of Mercosur – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.	而且，从那以后，欧盟已经接近完成甚至更加重要的与日本的贸易协定，同时接近协议签署的还包括与阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭在内的南方共同市场创始国。


Britain may be leaving, but the rest of the world seems to be lining up to make deals with the EU.	英国或许要离开，但世界其他国家似乎排着队等待与欧盟合作。


Still, there is no room for complacency.	但现在却不是自满的时候。


Despite many positive developments, governance is becoming more complicated within certain European countries, owing to an increasingly fractured political landscape.	尽管事态不乏积极的进展，但由于政治格局日益割裂，欧洲某些国家的治理正在变得更为复杂。


In Germany, forming a new government after an election used to be a straightforward affair.	在德国，大选结束后组建新政府曾经是非常简单的。


But now the country could be under a caretaker government until March, with little clarity about what sort of government will emerge.	但现在，该国在3月前都可能面临一届看守政府，而且几乎无法确定什么样的政府最终能够胜出。


In the meantime, Germany can hardly play its customary role as Europe’s anchor of stability.	与此同时，德国也许很难发挥其作为欧洲稳定之锚的传统作用。


In the Danubian lands of Hungary, Austria, and Bavaria, nationalism is on the rise.	在匈牙利、奥地利和巴伐利亚等多瑙河地区，民族主义正在呈现上升的势头。


And in Italy, few would dare to offer any solid predictions of what will happen in the next general election, which must be held before May 20, 2018.	而在意大利，很少有人敢于对必须在2018年5月20日之前举行的下一届大选结果作出任何明确的预测。


Moreover, Europeans cannot rely indefinitely on the low interest rates that have contributed to the current recovery.	此外，欧洲人不能永远依赖当前由低利率促成的复苏。


EU leaders will need to push much harder for structural reforms than they have so far.	欧盟领导人需要比之前更加努力的推动结构改革。


Although Spain has revived its economy with important reforms, and Macron has tackled France’s notoriously Byzantine labor code, the EU is still struggling on many fronts.	尽管西班牙已经通过重要改革恢复了经济发展，而马克龙已经解决了法国臭名昭著的拜占庭劳动法，但欧盟却仍然在许多方面拼命挣扎着。


For example, despite Estonia’s heroic efforts to create a digital-reform agenda during its presidency of the Council of the EU, far more needs to be done in that area.	例如，尽管爱沙尼亚在担任欧盟理事会主席期间为制定数字改革计划而付出了英勇的努力，但在这方面要做的工作还有很多。


Next year will be the last chance to pursue EU-level reforms before a fateful year of reckoning begins.	明年将是在决定性的清算之年开始前推进欧盟改革的最后机会。


In March 2019, Britain will leave the EU, with or without a divorce agreement.	2019年3月，无论能否达成离婚协议，英国都将离开欧盟。


Then, in May, come elections to the European Parliament, and new leaders will be appointed for the EU’s core institutions.	而后，在5月将要举行欧盟议会选举，而欧盟核心机构将要任命新的领导人。


Before we know it, Jean-Claude Juncker’s presidency of the European Commission will be over.	我们还来不及反应过来， 让·克洛德·容克担任欧盟委员会主席的任期就将结束。


Macron is anxiously awaiting a new government in Berlin.	马克龙正在焦急等待着柏林的新政府。


As things stand, it is far from clear that the next German coalition will support his EU-reform agenda.	下一届德国联盟能否支持他的欧盟改革计划还根本不清楚。


And, with each passing day, the European Commission will be running out of time to pursue any new initiatives that could realistically be finalized before 2019.	而且，随着时间的流逝，欧盟委员会将没有时间推行2019年前能够实际敲定的任何新举措。


So, while the gloom and doom of 2016 may have receded, it could all too easily return.	因此，尽管2016年的黑暗和厄运或许已经褪去，但它们还有可能非常轻易的再次回潮。


Sustaining the momentum generated by Macron’s election in France and realizing the promise that it holds will require decisive action in the months ahead.	保持马克龙在法国当选总统所启动的趋势并兑现其所作出的承诺需要在未来几个月内果断采取行动。


The Hunger Bonds	饥荒债券


CAMBRIDGE – Investing often creates moral dilemmas over goals: Should we aim to do well or to do good?	发自剑桥——投资经常会在其最终目的上产生某些道德困境：我们应该只关注投资回报还是关注所投资的事业是否正当？


Is it appropriate to invest in tobacco companies?	投资烟草公司有问题吗？


Or in companies that sell guns to drug gangs?	把钱投给向毒品团伙出售枪支的公司又可不可以？


The recent popularity of so-called impact investment funds, which promise to deliver decent returns while advancing social or environmental goals, is based on this unease.	近期一些所谓影响型投资基金（impact investment fund）的风行（这些基金承诺能在推动某些社会或环境目标的同时提供体面的回报）正是基于这种矛盾情绪。


Foundations often find that these investment vehicles help them to do good both with the money that they spend on philanthropy and with the endowment assets that yield the returns on which their philanthropy depends.	各大基金会往往发现这些投资工具可以帮助它们做好事，一方面借助它们在慈善事业上花费的金钱，另一方面则借助那些可以产生回报来资助慈善活动的捐赠资产。


Nowadays, it is emerging markets as an asset class that should make people morally queasy.	可如今新兴市场也成为了一种让人在道德上心存疑虑的资产类别。


Should decent people put their money in emerging-market bond funds?	试问一个体面的人应否将钱投入新兴市场债券基金？


The returns of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI+) are heavily influenced by what happens in Venezuela.	近期摩根大通新兴市场债券指数（EMBI+）的回报受到了委内瑞拉局势的极大影响。


The reason is simple: while Venezuela represents only about 5% of the index, it accounts for about 20% of its yield, because the yield on Venezuelan debt is about five times larger than that of other countries in the index, a reflection of the huge risk premium that Venezuela faces.	原因很简单：虽然委内瑞拉只占指数权重的5％左右，却差不多占了其总收益的20％，因为委内瑞拉债务的收益率是指数中其他国家的5倍，这也反映出委内瑞拉面临的巨大风险溢价。


Moreover, the price volatility of Venezuelan debt – the highest in the EMBI+ – accounts for a disproportionate share of the index’s daily price movements.	此外，委内瑞拉债券的价格波动——也是指数中最剧烈的——占据了该指数日常价格波动的过大比例。


You might invest in the EMBI+ because it promises higher returns, or because you want to make your savings available to a larger segment of humanity.	您可以投资EMBI+，因为它承诺更高的回报，或者是您希望将自己的储蓄与更多的人类同胞分享。


But if you do, you will root for Venezuelan debt, which means wishing for really bad things to happen to Venezuela’s people.	但是如果您真投了钱，就等于压注委内瑞拉债券回报率继续上升，而这意味着希望某些极为糟糕的事情发生在委内瑞拉人民身上。


As has been widely reported in the media, Venezuela is experiencing one of the most calamitous economic collapses ever, accompanied by massive doses of political repression and human-rights violations.	正如媒体广泛报道的那样，委内瑞拉正经历着史上最严重的经济崩溃之一，伴随着大量的政治镇压和侵犯人权行为。


So investing in the EMBI+ means that you rejoice when Wall Street analysts inform you that the country is literally starving its people in order to avoid restructuring your bonds.	因此投资EMBI+意味着当华尔街分析师告诉您该国确实在让人民忍饥挨饿以避免重组您的债券时，您对此深感欣慰。


Your happiness is easily explained: Venezuelan imports, after having collapsed by 75% from 2012 to 2016, are down more than 20% in the first quarter of 2017.	您的幸福很容易理解：委内瑞拉的进口量在2012~16年间了下跌75％之后，在2017年第一季度又再下降了20％以上。


That’s good news for you as an EMBI+ investor, because it means that more money is left to service your bonds. Meanwhile, Venezuelans are involuntarily losing weight and searching for food in garbage piles.	对于一名EMBI+投资者而言这是个好消息，因为这意味着更多的钱被留下来为你的债券服务，与此同时委内瑞拉人民都在被迫减肥并在垃圾堆里翻找食物。


Sure, it’s a humanitarian catastrophe. But, to you, it’s a fabulous investment opportunity.	这显然是场人道主义灾难，但对您来说可是一个绝妙的投资机会。


Now assume that you want to hold Venezuelan debt because you are hoping that President Nicolás Maduro will lose power and that a more sensible, democratically minded government, more in line with your moral compass, will emerge.	现在假设您想继续持有委内瑞拉国债，因为您希望尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统下台，让位给一个更符合您道德取向也更明智的民主政府。


Even in that case, you will still want the gains from Venezuela’s future recovery to be used preferentially to service the old debt issued to finance the corruption and national destruction brought about by Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez.	但即便如此，您仍然希望该国未来复苏的收益可以被优先用于偿还当年为满足马杜罗及其前任查韦斯的腐败和毁灭国家行为而发行的旧债务。


You will not be rooting for the recovery of livelihoods that Venezuelans deserve after having lived through this nightmare.	您可不想看到委内瑞拉人民在经历这场噩梦之后还能回归他们应有的生活。


You will also be rooting for US judges to seize assets and impound money to pay you.	您也想让美国法官出手查封资产和扣押资金来支付您的债券。


In fact, analysts who are bullish on Venezuelan debt have been lobbying the government and opposition leaders with an implied threat: even considering a restructuring of your bonds, they point out, will allow those managing your assets to cause havoc in Venezuela.	事实上，那些一直看多委内瑞拉债券的分析师一直在用某种隐含性威胁来游说该国政府和反对派领导人，他们指出：即使是考虑重组您持有债券的想法也将导致那些管理您资产的人对委内瑞拉造成严重破坏。


If you are a decent human being, investing in Venezuelan bonds should make you feel “mildly nauseous,” to borrow a phrase recently used by former FBI Director James Comey while testifying to the US Congress.	如果您是一个体面人，借用美国联邦调查局前局长詹姆斯·科米（James Comey）最近向美国国会作证时使用的一个短语，投资委内瑞拉债券应该让您“略感恶心”。


Emerging-market fund managers feel a similar discomfort.	新兴市场基金的管理者们也感到了类似的不适感。


They currently spend a disproportionate share of their time “getting the Venezuelan call right,” because their bonuses are based on their over-performance relative to the index – of which Venezuela is the main driver.	他们目前在“确保买入委内瑞拉债券行为的正当性”上花费了过多的时间，因为他们的奖金是基于能在多大程度上超越该指数——而委内瑞拉则是其中的主要驱动力。


The less morally burdened among them bask in the recognition they receive for having been right to predict that Maduro’s government would decide to starve its people rather than restructure the bonds you hold.	而他们道德负担的日渐减少是基于一种认可：是他们正确预测了马杜罗政府决定就算饿死人民也不会重组您所持有的债券。


Analysts and bondholders have also lobbied the government and the opposition not to seek financial support from the International Monetary Fund, for fear that the international community will demand that you accept a significant “haircut” on your investment, as has been required of Greece’s creditors.	此外分析家和债券持有人还游说该国政府和反对派不要从国际货币基金组织获得财政支持，因为他们担心国际社会将要求您像希腊债权人那样，接受对自身投资的大规模减值。


That would probably not be “good for the credit.”	此举可能不会“对信誉有好处”。


Analysts and bondholders have also lobbied the opposition-controlled National Assembly to recognize Venezuela’s external debt in exchange for the freedom of political prisoners, implying that the payment of your bonds can be secured through ransom.	分析师和债券持有人也游说反对派控制的国民议会承认委内瑞拉的外债以换取政治犯的自由，这意味着您的债券有了赎金作担保。


So, should you stop investing in emerging-market funds just because 5% of your savings would go toward financing Venezuela?	那么您是否应该停止投资新兴市场基金，只因其中有5%将投向委内瑞拉？


Clearly, this would punish other countries that are innocent bystanders in the Venezuelan mess.	这显然将牵连这场委内瑞拉乱局之外的其他无辜国家。


There must be a better way.	因此必须找到一个更好的方法。


There is.	方法是有的。


The solution is to demand that JPMorgan immediately exclude Venezuela from the emerging market bond indexes it calculates, thereby freeing fund managers from the need to compare their performance with hunger bonds.	解决方案是要求摩根大通立即将委内瑞拉的权重排除出各个新兴市场债券指数之外，从而令一众基金经理无需再将其业绩与饥荒债券做对比。


Over time, JPMorgan should introduce a Decent Emerging Markets index, which would save you from moral anguish by ensuring that only countries adhering to minimal standards of respect for their citizens are included.	随着时间的推移，摩根大通应该引入一个体面新兴市场指数（Decent Emerging Markets index），通过确保只计入那些高于某些尊重公民行为底线的国家，从而为您摆脱道德上的痛苦。


The DEM would allow you to root for higher returns on your savings without wishing for human misery. You could do well, without feeling bad.	该指数将允许您为自己的储蓄追求更高回报的同时不致将其构筑于他人的痛苦之上，让您可以做一个完美的投资人，同时也做一个心安理得的人。


Making Globalization Work	让全球化生机盎然


I have written repeatedly about the problems of globalization: an unfair global trade regime that impedes development; an unstable global financial system that results in recurrent crises, with poor countries repeatedly finding themselves burdened with unsustainable debt; and a global intellectual property regime that denies access to affordable life-saving drugs, even as AIDS ravages the developing world.	我多次就全球化的问题撰写文章。 这些问题包括：不公正的全球贸易体系阻碍发展，不稳定的全球金融体系引发重重危机，穷国一再身背债务难以为继，而当艾滋病在发展中国家肆虐之际，全球知识产权体系让救命的药物可望不可及。


I have also written about globalization’s anomalies: money should flow from rich to poor countries, but in recent years it has been going in the opposite direction.	我还就全球化的不正常现象著文。 资金本应从富国流向穷国，但是近年来流向却相反。


While the rich are better able to bear the risks of currency and interest-rate fluctuations, it is the poor who bear the brunt of this volatility.	富国更有能力承受货币和利率起伏风险，但却是穷国承受这种市场起伏的冲击。


Indeed, I have complained so loudly and vociferously about the problems of globalization that many have wrongly concluded that I belong to the anti-globalization movement.	确实，我对全球化的问题大声疾呼，以至于许多人错误地总结说我属于反全球化运动人士。


But I believe that globalization has enormous potential – as long as it is properly managed.	但是我相信，只要管理得当，全球化具有可观的潜力。


Some 70 years ago, during the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes formulated his theory of unemployment, which described how government action could help restore full employment.	大约70年前，也就是大萧条时期，凯恩斯提出了他的失业理论。 这一理论讲述政府行为如何可以帮助恢复充分就业。


While conservatives vilified him, Keynes actually did more to save the capitalist system than all the pro-market financiers put together.	尽管凯恩斯受到保守派的诋毁，但是在挽救资本主义制度上，他的贡献要比所有亲市场的金融家们加在一起都要大。


Had the conservatives been followed, the Great Depression would have been even worse and the demand for an alternative to capitalism would have grown stronger.	如果采纳了保守派的主张，大萧条将会更为严重，而且替代资本主义的要求也会更为强烈。


By the same token, unless we recognize and address the problems of globalization, it will be difficult to sustain.	出于同样原因，除非我们认识到全球化的问题并加以解决，全球化将会难以为继。


Globalization is not inevitable: there have been setbacks before, and there can be setbacks again.	全球化并非不可避免，以前曾经有过挫折，将来也会有。


Globalization’s advocates are right that it has the potential to raise everyone’s living standards.	全球化的支持者的观点是正确的，那就是，全球化具有提高所有人生活水准的潜力。


But it has not done that.	但是还没有做到这一点。


The questions posed by young French workers, who wonder how globalization will make them better off if it means accepting lower wages and weaker job protection, can no longer be ignored.	法国年轻工人们感到困惑，如果全球化意味着接受更低的工资和更弱的工作保证，它又如何让他们生活更好呢？ 他们提出的这一问题无法再回避了。


Nor can such questions be answered with the wistful hope that everyone will someday benefit.	一厢情愿地希望所有人某一天都受益也不能回答这样的问题。


As Keynes pointed out, in the long run, we are all dead.	正如凯恩斯指出的那样，长远而言，我们都将入土。


Growing inequality in the advanced industrial countries was a long-predicted but seldom advertised consequence of globalization.	先进工业化国家中不断增长的不平等是早就被预料到、但是很少提及的全球化的后果。


Full economic integration implies the equalization of unskilled wages everywhere in the world, and, though we are nowhere near attaining this “goal,” the downward pressure on those at the bottom is evident.	完全的经济融合意味着全世界低技能工资平等化，而且，尽管我们根本尚未实现这一“目标”，底层人士的减薪压力却是显而易见的。


To the extent that changes in technology have contributed to the near stagnation of real wages for low-skilled workers in the United States and elsewhere for the past three decades, there is little that citizens can do.	技术上的改变在过去三十年中造成美国和其他国家低技能工人的实际工资几乎停滞不前，普通民众对此无计可施。


But they can do something about globalization.	但是，他们却可以对全球化有所作为。


Economic theory does not say that everyone will win from globalization, but only that the net gains will be positive, and that the winners can therefore compensate the losers and still come out ahead.	经济学理论并不认为每个人都可以从全球化中受益，而只是说总体收益将会是肯定的，而且获益者因此可以补偿失败者而又出人头地。


But conservatives have argued that in order to remain competitive in a global world, taxes must be cut and the welfare state reduced.	但是保守派主张，为了在全球化的世界中保持竞争力，必须减税以及削减福利。


This has been done in the US, where taxes have become less progressive, with tax cuts given to the winners – those who benefit from both globalization and technological changes.	美国已经这样做了。 美国的税收累进程度变得更低，减税给了受益者，他们从全球化和技术革新中获益。


As a result, the US and others following its example are becoming rich countries with poor people.	结果，美国及其追随者都变成了穷人遍布的富国。


But the Scandinavian countries have shown that there is another way.	但是，斯堪的那维亚国家表明，还有另一种途径。


Of course, government, like the private sector, must strive for efficiency.	当然，政府和私营部门必须力争提高效率。


But investments in education and research, together with a strong social safety net, can lead to a more productive and competitive economy, with more security and higher living standards for all.	但是，投资教育和研究加上强大的社会保障制度可以造就生产效率更高、竞争力更强的经济，而所有人更有保障，生活水准更高。


A strong safety net and an economy close to full employment provides a conducive environment for all stakeholders – workers, investors, and entrepreneurs – to engage in the risk-taking that new investments and firms require.	强大的社会保障制度以及接近全民就业的经济为工人们、投资者以及企业家们等所有利益相关者提供有利的环境来参与到新的投资项目以及公司所要求的风险承担当中。


The problem is that economic globalization has outpaced the globalization of politics and mindsets.	问题是，经济全球化的步伐超过了政治和心态全球化。


We have become more interdependent, increasing the need to act together, but we do not have the institutional frameworks for doing this effectively and democratically.	我们变得更为相互依赖，提高了共同行动的需要，但是我们并不具有以高效和民主的方式作为的机制框架。


Never has the need for international organizations like the IMF, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization been greater, and seldom has confidence in these institutions been lower.	对于国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及世界贸易组织等国际组织的需求从来没有像现在这样更为强烈，而人们对这些组织的信心从来没有如此低过。


The world’s lone superpower, the US, has demonstrated its disdain for supranational institutions and worked assiduously to undermine them.	作为世界上唯一的超级大国的美国对超国家的国际组织表现得不屑一顾并且不遗余力地削弱它们。


The looming failure of the Development Round of trade talks and the long delay in the United Nations Security Council’s demand for a ceasefire in Lebanon are but the latest examples of America’s contempt for multilateral initiatives.	贸易谈判发展回合行将失败以及联合国安理会迟迟未能要求在黎巴嫩实现停火只不过是美国对多边倡议的轻视的最新例子而已。


Enhancing our understanding of globalization’s problems will help us to formulate remedies – some small, some large – aimed at both providing symptomatic relief and addressing the underlying causes.	提高我们对全球化的问题的理解将会帮助我们提出补救措施，这些措施有大有小，其目标都在于提供治表救济以及解决根本原因。


There is a broad array of policies that can benefit people in both developing and developed countries, thereby providing globalization with the popular legitimacy that it currently lacks.	大量的政策可以让发展中国家和发达国家的民众都受益，从而给全球化提供它目前所缺乏的民众合法性。


In other words, globalization can be changed; indeed, it is clear that it will be changed.	换言之，全球化可以得到改变。 实际上很明显，它可以得到改变。


The question is whether change will be forced upon us by a crisis or result from careful, democratic deliberation and debate.	问题是，究竟是由于危机而强加给我们还是通过谨慎而又民主的思考和辩论来实现。


Crisis-driven change risks producing a backlash against globalization, or a haphazard reshaping of it, thus merely setting the stage for more problems later on.	由危机引发的变革可能带来反对全球化的效果，或者含有危险的重新塑造全球化的风险，因而只不过是给将来带来更多的问题。


By contrast, taking control of the process holds out the possibility of remaking globalization, so that it at last lives up to its potential and its promise: higher living standards for everyone in the world.	与此相比，控制进程就可能重新塑造全球化，从而全球化最终可以实现其潜力及其前景，那就是全世界所有人更高的生活水准。


A Global Plan to End Malaria	消灭疟疾的全球计划


ABU DHABI – No one should die from a preventable disease.	阿布扎比—所有人都不应该因为可预防疾病而死。


Yet preventable diseases kill two million children every year, many of whom are too poor to afford proper treatment.	但可预防疾病每年要杀死两百万儿童，其中许多人是因为太穷而无力承担合适的医治。


The majority of these deaths are either treatable with existing medicines, or avoidable in the first place.	这些死亡案例大多要么原本可以用已有医药治好，好么从一开始就可以避免。


Malaria, a life-threatening disease transmitted by mosquitos, is one of these illnesses.	疟疾就是这些疾病之一，它是一种由蚊子传播的可致命疾病。


Less than a century ago, families everywhere – including across North America and Europe – lived in fear of a mosquito bite.	不到一百年前，全球各国家庭——包括北美和欧洲——都因此而害怕被蚊子叮咬。


Malaria not only took the lives of children and adults; it perpetuated poverty and limited global economic growth, preventing millions from reaching their full potential.	疟疾不但会导致儿童和成人死亡； 还会导致贫困永久化、遏制全球经济增长，使数百万人的潜力得不到充分发挥。


Today, more than 30 countries have eliminated the malaria parasite, and at least ten more are on track to do so by 2020.	如今，已有30多个国家消灭了疟原虫，另有至少十个国家正在努力在2020年实现这一目标。


Despite this, malaria remains a leading cause of death for children under five in Sub-Saharan Africa, taking the life of a child every two minutes.	尽管如此，疟疾仍然是撒哈拉以南非洲地区五岁以下儿童的主要死因，没两分钟就要夺走一名儿童的生命。


Malaria is also expensive, costing Africa’s economy some $12 billion per year.	疟疾也十分昂贵，给非洲经济造成大约每年120亿美元的成本


Despite many decades of intense research and development efforts, with more than 20 possible vaccines currently being evaluated, there is still no commercially available inoculation against malaria.	多年来，人们进行了大量研究和发展方面的努力，目前有20多种可用疫苗正在接受评估，但对于疟疾，我们仍然没有平价疫苗可用。


However, there are a number of preventive measures that can contribute to reducing the risk of infection.	但是，有很多预防措施都能有助于降低传染风险。


These include using insecticide-treated bed nets, spraying indoor walls with insecticides, and focusing prophylactic measures on the most vulnerable groups.	这些措施包括使用杀虫蚊帐、用杀虫剂喷洒室内墙面，以及在最脆弱群体推广预防措施。


Today, we have a window of opportunity to build on what has already been accomplished, by highlighting and supporting initiatives and research efforts that could eradicate malaria.	如今，我们面临一个在已有成就的基础上更进一步的机会窗口。 我们要强调并支持能够根除疟疾的方案和研究。


For example, researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Malaria Research Institute have discovered how resistance to the malaria parasite can spread in a mosquito population.	比如，约翰霍普金斯布隆伯格公共卫生学院（Bloomberg School of Public Health）疟疾研究所的研究人员发现了如何在蚊子中间传播疟原虫抗性。


The findings could pave the way for the development of self-propagating malaria-control strategies, mitigating the need for continuous application of insecticides and reliance on bed nets.	他们的发现为开发自传播疟疾控制策略铺平了道路，也减少了持续使用杀虫剂和依靠蚊帐的需要。


Another important initiative that deserves support is the World Health Organization’s “vector control” guidelines, which offer strategies for controlling the mosquitos, flies, and bugs that transmit disease.	另一个应该得到支持重要方案是世界卫生组织的“病媒控制”指引，它提供了控制传播疾病的蚊子、苍蝇和臭虫的策略。


The WHO’s plan provides a new strategy to strengthen vector control worldwide through increased capacity, improved surveillance, better coordination, and integrated action across sectors and diseases.	世卫组织的计划提出了强化全球病媒控制的新策略，通过能力建设、改善监控、加强协作和多部门和疾病多管齐下等方法实现。


Global health efforts should support efforts by countries where malaria is endemic to develop and improve vector-control strategies.	全球卫生计划应该支持疟疾流行国家制定和改善病媒控制策略的计划。


We also need to consider how changing global environments are affecting the occurrence of malaria.	我们还需要思考，变化的全球环境如何影响疟疾的发生。


For example, because deforestation creates favorable conditions for mosquitos by producing ditches and puddles, which are more likely to pool less acidic water that is conducive to mosquito larvae development, countries with elevated forest loss tend to have higher rates of malaria.	比如，森林采伐所形成的沟渠和水洼有更大的可能汇聚适合孑孓发育的低酸性水，从而给蚊虫创造了有利条件，因此，森林流失加速的国家往往会伴随疟疾发病率上升。


Deforestation also leads to reduced absorption of rainfall, which increases the volume of standing water.	森林采伐还导致降雨吸收能力下降，从而让积水增加。


In the United Arab Emirates, we believe that eliminating disease is central to global development.	在阿联酋，我们认为消灭疾病是全球发展的核心。


If people are given the opportunity to lead healthy lives, they can get an education, contribute to the economy, and look after their families, generating a multiplier effect that further boosts prosperity and development.	如果人们有机会过上健康的生活，他们就能够受到教育，为经济做出贡献，照顾自己的家庭，形成进一步提振繁荣和发展的乘数效应。


We also believe in adopting a holistic approach, one that includes securing financial commitments, promoting research and innovation through infrastructure development, and regularly convening global champions to maintain momentum and share ideas.	我们还认为，采取全面的方针，即确保金融投入、通过基础设施开发促进研究和创新、定期召开全球领导者会议以保持势头和分享观点多管齐下。


For disease eradication, partnership is essential.	对疾病防治工作而言，合作是至关重要的。


That is why Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, has contributed $30 million to the Roll Back Malaria partnership, the preeminent global framework for action against malaria.	因此，阿布扎比王储谢赫·穆罕默德·本·扎耶德（Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed）为消灭疟疾（Roll Back Malaria）合作基金捐赠3,000万美元。 消灭疟疾基金会是最重要的全球疟疾防治计划。


I am proud to sit on the board of Roll Back Malaria, because I believe that diversity of leadership perspectives is vital to finding solutions to combat the disease, particularly as we begin a bold new chapter in the quest to eliminate it.	作为消灭疟疾合作基金理事会成员，我感到十分自豪，因为我相信，领导层角度的多样化对于找到打击疟疾的方案至关重要，特别是在我们开始步入消灭疟疾的新阶段的时候。


The landscape of leaders supporting global health is expanding, and now represents populations around the world.	支持全球卫生的领导人群体在不断扩大，目前已经能够代表全世界人口。


This is important, because partnerships like Roll Back Malaria must work globally to save the greatest possible number of lives.	这一点很重要，因为消灭疟疾合作基金这样的组织必须在全球开展合作以尽可能多地拯救生命。


We hope to encourage further global collaboration this week, as Abu Dhabi convenes more than 200 leaders in disease eradication at a forum called Reaching the Last Mile.	本周，阿布扎比将召开抵达最后一英里（Reaching the Last Mile）论坛，200多位疾病防治方面的领导者将齐聚一堂。 我们希望借此可以进一步推动全球合作。


This meeting aims to share insights and best practices on how to map, control, or eliminate preventable diseases, including innovations that could ultimately bring an end to malaria globally.	这次会议的主旨是分享关于如何认识、控制和消灭可预防疾病的洞见和最佳实践，包括有望最终在全球范围内消灭疟疾的创新。


In the twentieth century, we managed to eradicate a disease, smallpox, for the first time in history.	在二十世纪，我们在历史上第一次成功地消灭了一种疾病——天花。


Complete eradication, elimination, or control of disease is complex, and that is particularly true of malaria.	完全治愈、消灭或控制疾病是非常复杂的，对疟疾来说尤其如此。


A few years ago, we thought that elimination of malaria was beyond our reach, but together the world has made tremendous progress.	几年前，我们认为消灭疟疾是一个可望而不可及的目标，但团结一致的世界取得了巨大的进步。


Between 2000 and 2015, public-health interventions saved the lives of 6.2 million people, 5.9 million of whom were children under the age of five.	2000—2015年间，公共卫生干预拯救了620万人的生命，其中590万是五岁以下儿童。


By 2020, an estimated $6.4 billion will be needed each year to fund the global fight to eliminate malaria.This will be a difficult feat, but together we can create a future without the disease – a brighter and more stable future for millions of vulnerable people, with more opportunities for generations to come.	到2020年，预计每年将需要64亿美元用于消灭疟疾全球计划。 这是一个艰巨的任务，但如果我们你齐心协力，就能创造一个没有疾病的未来——一个数百万脆弱群体的更光明、更稳定的未来，我们的子孙后代将拥有更多的机会。


Manchester’s Bright Future	曼彻斯特的光明未来


MANCHESTER – I am a proud Mancunian (as the people of Manchester are known), despite the fact I haven’t lived here permanently since I left school for university when I was 18.	曼彻斯特——虽然自从18岁离开高中去上大学后我并未永久定居在那里，但我依然为我是曼彻斯特人而感到自豪。


I was born in St. Mary’s hospital near the city center, was raised in a pleasant suburb in South Manchester, and attended a normal primary and junior school in a nearby, tougher neighborhood, before attending Burnage for secondary school.	我出生在市中心附近的圣玛丽医院，在曼彻斯特南部一个令人愉悦的郊区被抚养长大，并在临近一个更强健的社区读完了普通小学和初中，之后又到伯纳戈读完了高中。


Thirty-eight years after I attended Burnage, so too, apparently, did Salman Abedi, the suspected Manchester Arena bomber.	在我入学伯纳戈38年后，曼彻斯特体育馆爆炸案的嫌疑人萨尔曼·阿贝迪显然也在那里入学。


The atrocity carried out by Abedi, for which the Islamic State has claimed credit, is probably worse than the dreadful bombing by the Irish Republican Army that destroyed parts of the city center 21 years ago, an event that many believe played a key role in Manchester’s renaissance.	伊斯兰国声称对阿贝迪犯下的暴行负责，这次暴行很有可能比21年前爱尔兰共和军摧毁市中心部分地区的恐怖爆炸更加恶劣。 很多人认为那起事件在曼彻斯特的复兴中发挥了关键的作用。


At least in that case, the bombers gave a 90-minute warning that helped avoid loss of life.	至少那一次爆炸者提前90分钟发出警告，从而避免了生命损失。


Abedi’s barbaric act, by contrast, killed at least 22 people, many of them children.	相反，阿贝迪的野蛮行径至少造成22人死亡，其中许多还是儿童。


In recent years, I have been heavily involved in the policy aspects of this great city’s economic revival.	近年来，我深度参与制定了这个伟大城市的经济复苏政策。


I chaired an economic advisory group to the Greater Manchester Council, and then served as Chair of the Cities Growth Commission, which advocated for the “Northern Powerhouse,” a program to link the cities of the British north into a cohesive economic unit.	我主持了隶属大曼彻斯特理事会的一个经济顾问团体，而后又担任城市增长委员会的主任，该委员会大力宣扬“北方经济引擎”计划，该计划旨在在经济方面深度融合英国北部城市。


Subsequently, I briefly joined David Cameron’s government, to help implement the early stages of the Northern Powerhouse.	随后，我又短暂地加入了卡梅伦政府，旨在协助北方经济引擎早期计划的实施。


I have never attended a concert at the Manchester Arena, but it appears to be a great venue for the city.	我从来没有参加过曼彻斯特体育馆的音乐会，但体育馆似乎是这座城市的名胜。


Just as Manchester Airport has emerged as a transport hub serving the Northern Powerhouse, the arena plays a similar role in terms of live entertainment.	就像曼彻斯特机场逐渐发展为服务于北方经济引擎的交通枢纽一样，体育馆也在现场娱乐活动方面发挥了类似的作用。


As the sad reports about those affected indicate, attendees came from many parts of northern England (and beyond).	有关受影响人士令人悲伤的报告表明，参与者来自英格兰北部（乃至更远）的许多地区。


In the past couple of years, Manchester has received much praise for its economic revival, including its position at the geographic heart of the Northern Powerhouse, and I am sure this will continue.	过去几年中，人们对曼彻斯特的经济复苏大加赞赏，包括它是北方经济引擎的地理位置核心，我相信这种赞赏将继续下去。


Employment levels and the regional PMI business surveys indicate that, for most of the past two years, economic momentum has been stronger in North West England than in the country as a whole, including London.	就业水平和区域PMI商业调查显示在过去两年的大部分时间里，英格兰西北部的经济发展势头比整个国家（包括伦敦在内）更加强劲。


Whether this is because of the Northern Powerhouse policy is difficult to infer; whatever the reason, it is hugely welcome and important to sustain.	很难断定这是否是因为北方经济引擎政策； 但无论原因如何，这都是一件大好事，并且需要全力维持下去。


To my occasional irritation, many people still wonder what exactly the Northern Powerhouse is.	偶尔令我不快的是，许多人对北方经济引擎究竟是什么仍然一无所知。


At its core, it represents the economic geography that lies within Liverpool to the west, Sheffield to the East, and Leeds to the northeast, with Manchester in the middle.	从本质上看，它代表了西起利物浦、东至谢菲尔德、东北至利兹以及核心为曼彻斯特的一个经济地理区域。


The distance from Manchester to the center of any of those other cities is less than 40 miles (64 kilometers), which is shorter than the London Underground’s Central, Piccadilly, or District lines.	从曼彻斯特到上述任何一个市中心距离都不到40英里（ 合64公里），这还比不上伦敦地铁核心皮卡迪利街或地区干线的长度。


If the 7-8 million people who live in those cities – and in the numerous towns, villages, and other areas between them – can be connected via infrastructure, they can act as a single unit in terms of their roles as consumers and producers.	如果生活在那些城市——以及星罗棋布于其间的城镇、村庄和其他地区——的7-8百万人可以通过基础设施建立联系，他们就可以统一发挥消费者和生产者的作用。


The Northern Powerhouse would then be a genuine structural game changer for Britain’s economy.	北方经济引擎计划因此将成为英国经济真正的结构性规则颠覆者。


Indeed, along with London, it would be a second dynamic economic zone that registers on a global scale.	事实上，它将与伦敦一道成为又一个活力四射的经济区，并因此而闻名于世。


It is this simple premise that led the previous government to place my ideas at the core of its economic policies, and why the Northern Powerhouse has become so attractive to business here in the United Kingdom and overseas.	正是这个简单的前提使得前任政府将我的理念作为经济政策的核心，而且解释了北方经济引擎为什么对英国和海外企业表现出如此大的吸引力。


It is a thrilling prospect, and, despite being less than three years old, it is showing signs of progress.	未来令人兴奋，而且尽管落地还不到三年，却已经取得了明显的进步。


In fact, given the broader economic benefits of agglomeration, the Northern Powerhouse mantra can be extended to the whole of the North of England, not least to include Hull and the North East.	事实上，因为集聚带来的广泛的经济效益，北方经济引擎魔咒可以拓展到尤其包括赫尔及东北的整个英格兰北部地区。


But it is what I often inelegantly call “Man-Sheff-Leeds-Pool” that distinguishes the Northern Powerhouse, and Manchester, which sits at the heart of it, is certainly among the early beneficiaries.	但其实是我经常俗称为“曼—谢—利—浦”的区域最终导致北方经济引擎出类拔萃，而位于引擎核心地带的曼彻斯特无疑是早期受益者之一。


Despite this, I have frequently said to local policy leaders, business people, those from the philanthropic world, and others that unless the areas lying outside the immediate vicinity of central Manchester benefit from regional dynamism, Greater Manchester’s success will be far from complete.	尽管如此，我常常告诫当地政策领袖、商界人士、慈善和其他人士除非紧邻曼彻斯特核心的地区受益于地区活力，否则大曼彻斯特的成功就还远远没有完成。


Anyone who looks little more than a mile north, south, east, or west of Manchester’s Albert Square – never mind slightly less adjacent parts such as Oldham and Rochdale – can see that much needs to be improved, including education, skills training, and inclusiveness, in order to ensure long-term success.	任何目睹曼彻斯特阿尔伯特广场北部、南部、东部或西部超过一英里（更不要说像奥尔德姆和洛奇代尔等距离稍远一些的地区）的人都能看到还有许多地方需要改进，包括教育、技能培训和包容性，才能确保长期成功。


Whatever the warped motive of the 22-year-old Abedi, who evidently blew himself up along with the innocent victims, his reprehensible act will not tarnish Manchester’s bright, hopeful future.	无论22岁的阿贝迪动机多么扭曲（他显然将自己与无辜的受害者一道炸上了天），他应受谴责的行为都将不会玷污曼彻斯特光明、充满希望的未来。


I do not claim to understand the world of terrorism, but I do know that those who live in and around Manchester and other cities need to feel part of their community and share its aspirations.	我不敢说了解世界恐怖主义，但我切实知道那些生活在曼彻斯特及其周边和其他城市的人需要感受到成为社区的一部分并共享其中的希望。


Residents who identify with their community are less likely to harm it – and more likely to contribute actively to its renewed vigor.	对社区有认同感的居民对其造成损害的可能性更低——并且更有可能积极焕发其新的活力。


Now more than ever, Manchester needs the vision that the Northern Powerhouse provides.	现在的曼彻斯特比以往任何时候都更需要北方经济引擎计划描绘的愿景。


It is a vision that other cities and regions would do well to emulate.	其他城市和地区模仿这一愿景都将带来好处。


Why Pick on BNP Paribas?	为何偏偏是巴黎银行?


CAMBRIDGE – To Europeans with whom I speak, the $8.9 billion fine imposed on the French financial-services company BNP Paribas for violating American sanctions against Cuba, Iran, and Sudan seems excessive.	发自剑桥——对于那些我接触到的欧洲人来说，美国因为法国金融服务企业巴黎银行违反了前者对古巴，伊朗和苏丹三国的制裁而施加的89亿美元罚款似乎太过分了。


Yes, BNP did something seriously wrong.	没错，巴黎银行确实犯下了严重错误。


But $8.9 billion?	但89亿美元？


Isn’t that extremely disproportionate for an otherwise highly responsible bank?	这对一间在其他方面都高度负责的银行来说是否太过严苛了？


French President François Hollande asked US President Barack Obama to intervene to have the fine reduced, as did the European Union’s commissioner for the internal market and services, Michel Barnier.	法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德已经要求美国总统奥巴马介入此事以减少罚款额，欧盟内部市场及服务专员米歇尔·巴尼埃（Michel Barnier）也提出了同样的请求。


The fine is indeed much higher than those levied before.	但这项罚款确实比以往的都要高昂许多。


Hefty fines for currency-trading violations are not new (HSBC, for example, was hit with a $1.9 billion fine in 2012); but a fine close to $10 billion is.	虽然对违反货币交易条例的巨额罚款并不是头一遭（例如汇丰银行就是在2012年被罚19亿美元）； 但一笔近100亿美元的罚款就真是史无前例了。


Three factors, not all of which are being discussed, seem to explain the size of the penalty.	有三项因素（它们并未全部被讨论过）似乎能解释本次罚款的数额为何如此巨大。


First, BNP’s infraction was part of a pattern of deliberate and repeated behavior.	首先，巴黎银行的违规是某种蓄意且反复实施行为的一部分。


Second, the settlement came at a time when the American authorities faced heavy criticism for being soft on big banks during and after the 2008 financial crisis.	其次，这一判罚是在美国各机构面对其在2008年金融危机时期对大型银行心慈手软的强烈指责之时作出的。


Finally, and more speculatively, the United States’ effort to make finance a more efficacious foreign-policy tool could have affected its treatment of BNP.	最后，也是更值得推敲的一项，就是美国在将金融变成一件更有效外交政策工具方面的努力影响到了对巴黎银行的判罚。


On the first issue, European businesspeople and media organizations need to appreciate fully how US prosecutors of financial crimes think.	在第一项上，欧洲商界和媒体人士都应该完全理解美国经济犯罪检察官的思维方式。


Once an investigation shows clearly that wrongdoing has occurred, the authorities expect the target to come clean, cooperate, and restructure the firm to ensure that the infractions do not recur.	一旦调查显示错误行为已经发生，当局都希望犯案者能坦白交代，与控方合作，并重组企业以确保不会再犯。


But BNP continued the banned transactions and knowingly sought to cover its tracks.	但巴黎银行继续执行那些被禁止的交易并蓄意掩盖交易记录。


The transfer documentation reportedly was regularly stripped of key details such as the destination of wire transfers, so that the transaction would be harder to investigate and less likely to provide evidence of malfeasance.	据报那些转帐文件都被照常抹掉类似汇款目的地等关键细节，因此也更难对这类交易进行调查并难以搜集到违规证据。


In American corporate criminal actions, the targeted US firm often brings in a prominent figure – a former prosecutor or a former judge – to investigate the behavior and people involved and report to the target’s board of directors.	在美国企业犯罪调查中，被锁定的美国企业往往会邀请一位著名的人物——前检查官或前法官——去调查行为本身以及涉事人员，并报告给目标企业的董事会。


The latest example of this practice now in the news is that of General Motors, which hired Anton Valukas, a prominent former prosecutor who examined and reported on the dealings of the failed investment bank Lehman Brothers to the bankruptcy court.	最近一起公开报道的这类做法就是通用汽车雇佣了知名前检察官安东·瓦卢卡斯（Anton Valukas）。


Valukas’s task for GM was to investigate and report on the company’s faulty ignition switches, which have been linked to 13 deaths.	此人曾负责为破产法庭调查雷曼兄弟投资银行交易，如今为通用汽车调查据称已经导致13人死亡的汽车点火开关故障。


The targeted firm then typically fires the most egregious wrongdoers and puts management-control systems in place to reduce the chance that similar problems will arise in the future.	随后该企业通常会开除最主要的犯错者，并引入经营管理系统去降低未来发生同样事故的可能性。


Perhaps the investigation interprets ambiguity in a way most favorable to the organization and its senior management, but it is understood that the investigation will indeed uncover the core facts and lead to effective reforms.	虽然这些调查或许会以对企业自身及其高管最为有利的方式来解释这些疑问，但也必须意识到这类调查确实能切实揭示核心问题所在，并引发有效的改革。


Some might view this way of proceeding as moralism, though some of it results from under-staffed, under-funded prosecutors economizing on resources.	有些人会认为这种类调查程序都是些道德说教罢了，虽然其中一些是由人手和经费都捉襟见肘，只得不断节省资源的检察官来操办的。


The target pays for its own investigation.	目标企业为自己的调查付钱。


BNP did not seem to do any of this with gusto; its investigation did not match the effort made, for example, by GM.	但巴黎银行似乎对此不太感兴趣；


It did not prevent subsequent violations by implementing effective controls to detect problems.	它自身的调查与通用汽车的投入程度无法相提并论，也并没有通过可以发现问题的有效控制措施来防止继续违规。


The second factor is that BNP’s case came to a head at a time when US prosecutors were being accused of treating banks as “too big to jail,” for fear that pressing charges against them would weaken them too much and thus undermine the real economy.	第二项因素是巴黎银行这个案子恰好是在美国检察机关饱受指责之时出现的，人们批评检察机构不愿向银行施压，“太大而不能送进监狱”，担心过度削弱银行将导致实体经济被削弱。


BNP just happened to be one of the next banks in line for prosecution and thus found itself in the crosshairs.	巴黎银行只不过刚好排到了下一个检控对象，于是就被钉死了。


BNP did lobby European authorities to make a too-big-to-jail plea to the US authorities.	巴黎银行确实游说过欧洲当局去请求美国当局不要把它们的人送进监狱。


The European authorities made the plea, claiming that the large fine would cripple BNP; it did not work.	欧洲当局也照做了，辩解说这笔巨额罚款会让巴黎银行一蹶不振； 但收效甚微。


Finally, bear in mind that the case coincided with the crises in Ukraine and elsewhere, with the major US enforcement action being financial and economic sanctions on Russia, the largest of which are still being threatened.	最后，请留意这起案件与乌克兰和其他地区的危机是一致的，就是美国大部分的强制行动都是对俄罗斯进行金融和经济制裁，而俄罗斯也是依然受到威胁的最大国家。


Recall BNP’s transgressions: the US barred financial transactions with Sudan, Iran, and Cuba through banks that touched US soil (or the US dollar) in their dealings.	回想巴黎银行的违规行为：美国禁止任何通过银行在美国领土（或使用美元）与苏丹，伊朗，古巴进行金融交易。


Most banks complied. BNP did not, engineering secret transactions involving all three countries.	大多数银行照办了，巴黎银行则反其道而行，一手操办了与全部三国有关的


At a time when the US is reluctant or unable to project military might to back up its foreign-policy goals, it is seeking to use financial might as a surrogate.	在美国不愿或无力投射其军事力量以支持其外交政策目标的时候，它就会转而使用金融工具。


The effort might induce a financial backlash in the future, but BNP’s problems emerged when effective sanctions were at the forefront of policymakers’ minds – and, one suspects, not absent from prosecutors’ minds.	这一措施可能在未来激起反对，但巴黎银行事件却是在政策制定者满脑子都想着如何实施有效制裁的时候浮出水面——同时也可以猜测，检察官脑子里也有类似的想法。


If the US is to make its financial weaponry an effective foreign-policy tool, big banks cannot blithely proceed to do what US authorities have prohibited.	如果美国想把其金融武器变成一项有效的外交政策工具，大型银行就无法毫无顾忌地从事当局禁止的行为。


It would take only a few noncompliant banks to render financial sanctions ineffective.	证明金融制裁的无效性只需要一些不服从的银行就够了。


And it is difficult to detect which banks are not complying and to what extent.	但同时也无法去探测哪些银行没有服从以及违规到何种程度。


So when one miscreant is discovered, the enforcement authorities hit it hard, to signal to others that, while they might not get caught, the financial penalties will far exceed the limited benefits of disobeying the government’s foreign-policy edicts.	因此一旦捉到了一个犯案者，美国的执法部门都会大加制裁，并以此昭告其他人：一旦被抓，遭到的金融惩罚会远远超过不遵守政府外交禁令所赚取的有限利润。


This general move for criminal enforcement – greater penalties to account for the difficulties of detection – is a standard prosecutorial move in the US and around the world.	其实是美国或世界其他地区执法部门的标准做法——越难查处的罪行，惩罚力度就越大。 。


Thus, European critics of the fine imposed on BNP Paribas are right to emphasize its disproportionate nature. What they overlook is that this was precisely the point.	因此，欧洲批评对巴黎银行罚款过重的没错的，但他们没有意识到的是，这恰好就是美国当局的用意。


Learning from Martin Luther About Technological Disruption	从马丁·路德身上学习科技破坏性的意义


GENEVA – Five hundred years ago this week, a little-known priest and university lecturer in theology did something unremarkable for his time: he nailed a petition to a door, demanding an academic debate on the Catholic Church’s practice of selling “indulgences” – promises that the buyer or a relative would spend less time in purgatory after they died.	发自日内瓦——五百年前的这个星期，一位不知名的牧师和大学神学讲师做了一件在他那个时代看来稀松平常的事情：他钉了张请愿书在门口，要求就天主教会销售“赎罪券”——此券承诺可以减少买家或亲友死后在炼狱里受折磨的时间——的做法进行学术辩论。


Today, Martin Luther’s “95 Theses,” posted at the Castle Church in Wittenberg, Germany (he simultaneously sent a copy to his boss, Cardinal Albrecht von Brandenburg), are widely recognized as the spark that started the Protestant Reformation.	今天，马丁·路德发表在德国维滕贝格城堡教堂的“九十五条论纲”（他同时也发了一份给自己的顶头上司勃兰登堡红衣主教）被广泛认为是引发新教改革的火花。


Within a year, Luther had become one of Europe’s most famous people, and his ideas – which challenged not only Church practice and the Pope’s authority, but ultimately man’s relationship with God – had begun to reconfigure systems of power and identity in ways that are still felt today.	仅仅一年时间，路德已经跃升为欧洲最知名的人物之一，他的想法不仅挑战了教会的所作所为和教皇的权威，还最终质疑了人与上帝的关系，并以一系列今时今日依然能被人感知到的方式来开始重新配置权力和身份定义体制。


What made Luther’s actions so momentous?	那么是什么令路德的行为变得如此意义重大？


After all, calls for reforming the Church had been occurring regularly for centuries.	毕竟改革教会的呼声已经绵延了几个世纪。


As the historian Diarmaid MacCulloch writes in A History of Christianity: The First Three Thousand Years, the two centuries before Luther featured near-constant challenges to papal supremacy on issues of philosophy, theology, and politics.	正如历史学家戴尔梅德·麦考洛（Diarmaid MacCulloch）在《基督教史：前三千年》一书中写道：在路德之前那两个世纪中也不乏在哲学，神学和政治事务上对教皇无上权威地位的挑战。


How did the concerns of a minor theologian in Saxony lead to widespread religious and political upheaval?	那凭什么一个来自萨克森的小神学家的思想能引发广泛的宗教和政治动荡？


A central piece of the puzzle is the role of emerging technology.	这一谜题的核心部分是新兴技术的作用。


A few decades before Luther developed his argument, a German blacksmith named Johannes Gutenberg had invented a new system of movable-type printing, allowing the reproduction of the written word at greater speeds and lower costs than the laborious and less-durable woodblock approach.	在路德发展出自身理论的几十年之前，德国的一位叫约翰内斯·古腾伯格的铁匠发明了一套新的活字印刷系统，相对于费时费力且不耐用的木版活字印刷，该系统可以更快更廉价地印刷文本。


The printing press was a revolutionary – and exponential – technology for the dissemination of ideas.	印刷机是思想传播的革命性——也是指数级爆发式的——技术。


In 1455, the “Gutenberg Bible” was printed at a rate of roughly 200 pages per day, significantly more than the 30 pages per day that a well-trained scribe could produce.	在1455年，《古腾堡圣经》的印刷速度约为每天200页，大大超过了一名训练有素的抄写员每天30页的速度。


By Luther’s time, the daily printing rate of a single press had increased to roughly 1,500 single-sided sheets.	在路德时代，一台印刷机的日常印刷速度已经提升到约1500幅单面/天。


Improved printing efficiency, combined with steep declines in cost, led to a dramatic increase in access to the written word between 1450 and 1500, even though only an estimated 6% of the population was literate.	尽管在1450~1500年间估计只有6％的人口具备识字能力，但印刷效率的提高加上成本的急剧下降，使得人们获取书面文本的渠道大幅增加。


Luther quickly grasped the potential of the printing press to spread his message, effectively inventing new forms of publishing that were short, clear, and written in German, the language of the people.	路德迅速把握住了印刷机的潜力去传播他的信息，有效地发明了以德语写就的简短明晰的新出版形式。


Perhaps Luther’s most enduring personal contribution came via his translation of the Bible from Greek and Hebrew into German.	或许路德影响最持久的个人贡献是将圣经从希腊文和希伯来文译成了德语。


He was determined to “speak as men do in the marketplace,” and more than 100,000 copies of the “Luther Bible” were printed in Wittenberg over the following decades, compared to just 180 copies of the Latin Gutenberg Bible.	他决心“像市场里的商贩一样大声叫卖”，接着那几十年在维滕贝格地区印刷了超过10万册《路德圣经》，而拉丁古腾堡圣经只印了180本。


This new use of printing technology to produce short, punchy pamphlets in the vernacular transformed the industry itself.	这种可以以当地语言印刷简明小册子的新技术应用也改变了印刷行业本身。


In the decade before Luther’s theses, Wittenberg printers published, on average, just eight books annually, all in Latin and aimed at local university audiences.	在路德发表论纲之前那十年，维滕贝格地区的出版商平均每年只出版八本书，全部是拉丁文且仅针对当地的大学读者。


But, according to the British historian Andrew Pettegree, between 1517 and Luther’s death in 1546, local publishers “turned out at least 2,721 works” – and average of “91 books per year,” representing some three million individual copies.	但据英国历史学家安德鲁·派特里（Andrew Pettegree）介绍，自1517年到1546年路德逝世之间，当地的出版商“最少出版了2721部著作”，相当于“每年平均出版91本书”，总印量达300万册。


Pettegree calculates that a third of all books published during this period were written by Luther himself, and that the pace of publishing continued to increase after his death.	派特里计算出在这段期间出版的所有书籍中有1/3是路德写的，而出版发行的速度在他去世后继续提升。


Luther effectively published a piece of writing every two weeks – for 25 years.	路德基本上每两周就发表一篇文章——持续整整25年。


The printing press greatly expanded the accessibility of the religious controversy that Luther helped fuel, galvanizing the revolt against the Church.	印刷机让数量庞大的民众参与到了路德协助引发的宗教争议之中，激发了对教会的反抗。


Research by the economic historian Jared Rubin indicates that the mere presence of a printing press in a city before 1500 greatly increased the likelihood that the city would become Protestant by 1530.	经济史学家贾雷德·鲁宾（Jared Rubin）的研究表明，只要某个城市在1500年之前拥有一座印刷厂，那么其在1530年前转变成为新教城市的可能性就大大增加。


In other words, the closer you lived to a printing press, the more likely you were to change the way you viewed your relationship with the Church, the most powerful institution of the time, and with God.	换句话说，你越接近印刷厂，就越可能改变你与教会这个当时最强大机构以及和上帝的关系。


There are at least two contemporary lessons to be drawn from this technological disruption.	上述技术破坏性事件至少拥有两个当代意义。


For starters, in the context of the modern era’s “Fourth Industrial Revolution” – which Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum defines as a fusion of technologies blending the physical, digital, and biological spheres – it is tempting to assess which technologies could be the next printing press.	首先，现代时期的“第四次工业革命”大背景——正如世界经济论坛的克劳斯·施瓦布（Klaus Schwab）所定义的集物理，数字和生物领域于一身的多技术融合——让人不禁遐想究竟哪些技术可能成为下一台印刷机。


Those who stand to lose from them might even move to defend the status quo, as the Council of Trent did in 1546, when it banned the printing and sale of any Bible versions other than the official Latin Vulgate, without Church approval.	而那些将被新技术击败的人甚至会开始捍卫现状，正如1546年的特伦托会议那样，宣布除非经过教会批准，否则禁止印刷和出售任何官方《圣经》通俗拉丁语版本之外的圣经版本。


But perhaps the most enduring lesson of Luther’s call for a scholarly debate – and his use of technology to deliver his views – is that it failed.	但也许路德开展学术辩论的呼吁——以及他利用技术来表达自身观点——所带来的最持久教益就是这一举动失败了。


Instead of a series of public discussions about the Church’s evolving authority, the Protestant Reformation became a bitter battle played out via mass communication, splitting not just a religious institution but also an entire region.	新教改革并未引发一系列关于不断发展的教会权威的公众讨论，而是演变成为一场通过大众传播爆发的悲惨冲突，不仅令一个宗教机构分崩离析，更撕裂了整个地区。


Worse, it became a means to justify centuries of atrocities, and triggered the Thirty Years’ War, the deadliest religious conflict in European history.	更糟糕的是，它成为了往后数百年间各类暴行的借口，并引发了“三十年战争”这个欧洲历史上最致命的宗教冲突。


The question today is how we can ensure that new technologies support constructive debate.	因此当今的问题在于如何确保新技术能去支持建设性辩论。


The world remains full of heresies that threaten our identities and cherished institutions; the difficulty is to view them not as ideas that must be violently suppressed, but as opportunities to understand where and how current institutions are excluding people or failing to deliver promised benefits.	世界仍然充满着威胁我们自身身份定义以及宝贵体制架构的异端邪说； 而困难在于不应把它们视为必须被强力压制的想法，而是了解当前体制究竟是在哪里和如何将人们排挤出来或未能兑现承诺过的利益。


Calls for more constructive engagement may sound facile, naive, or even morally precarious.	呼吁进行更具建设性的参与可能听起来像是夸夸其谈，过于天真，甚至在道德上站不住脚。


But the alternative is not just the hardening of divisions and estrangement of communities; it is widespread dehumanization, a tendency that current technologies seem to encourage.	但另一种选择带来的不仅仅是不断加剧的社区分化和异化； 还有广泛的去人性化——这似乎是当前科技所鼓励的趋势。


Today’s Fourth Industrial Revolution could be an opportunity to reform our relationship with technology, amplifying the best of human nature.	当今的第四次工业革命可能是改革我们与科技的关系并强化人性善良一面的机会。


To grasp it, however, societies will need a subtler understanding of the interplay of identity, power, and technology than they managed during Luther’s time.	然而如果要把握这一点，社会需要对于身份，权力和技术的相互作用拥有比路德时期更细微的理解。


Media Capture in the Digital Age	数字时代的媒体捕获


NEW YORK – The last couple of years have not been good for freedom of expression.	纽约—过去几年，新闻自由形势不利。


The governments of Poland, Hungary, and Turkey have become increasingly authoritarian and – like leaders in the Balkans, China, and Russia – increasingly eager to control public discourse.	波兰、匈牙利和土耳其政府越来越极权，和巴尔干国家、中国和俄罗斯的领导人一样，它们越来越热衷于控制公共话题。


In the United States, too, President Donald Trump relentlessly attempts to discredit the news media, and his administration is unprecedentedly inaccessible to the press.	美国也是如此，特朗普总统不断地试图抹黑新闻媒体，其政府对媒体的态度前所未有地不友好。


The age of censors physically redacting newspapers, as I have seen in Vietnam and Myanmar, is mostly over.	对报纸进行赤裸裸的编造的时代——比如我在越南和缅甸所看到的——已经基本结束了。


But, as recent developments show, press freedom remains highly vulnerable, as governments and “vested interests networked with politics,” in the words of the political scientist Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, engage in a kind of soft control that can be described as “media capture.”	但是，最近的发展趋势表明，新闻自由仍然非常脆弱，因为政府和——用政治学家艾琳娜·蒙吉欧-皮皮迪（Alina Mungiu-Pippidi）的话说——“与政治沆瀣一气的既得利益”一起进行着可称之为“媒体捕获”（media capture）的软控制。


Economists used the term “capture” after the financial crisis of 2008 to describe how regulators, who often came from (and returned to) the industry they were supposed to oversee, failed to police the sector properly.	2008年金融危机后，经济学家用“捕获”一词来形容监管者——他们常常来自（或回到）他们的所谓监督对象——如何无法对金融业进行合理的监督。


Media capture works in much the same way, with political leaders either owning media outlets outright (think of Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi) or ensuring that media leaders are loyal to them, whether through cronyism or punishment.	媒体捕获在很大程度上也是如此，政治领导人要么完全拥有媒体（如意大利的贝卢斯科尼），要么能够通过裙带关系或惩罚来保证媒体领导人忠于自己。


One of the first orders of business for Poland’s far-right government, led unofficially by Jarosław Kaczyński, was to adopt a new media law allowing it to hire and fire the heads of public broadcasting networks.	以卡钦斯基（Jarosław Kaczyński）非正式领导的波兰极右翼政府的第一批动作之一，就是实施了新的媒体法，允许政府聘用和解雇公共广电网络的负责人。


In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government has jailed critical journalists – such as the well-known columnist Ahmet Altan and his brother Mehmet, a professor – and closed down or seized control of media companies, using fear to shape reporting.	在土耳其，总统埃尔多安的政府抓捕批评记者——如著名的专栏作家艾哈迈德·奥坦（Ahmet Altan）和他的兄弟穆罕默德（Mehmet）教授，并关闭或牢牢控制媒体企业，用恐惧来影响报道。


In a less extreme version of Erdoğan’s approach, Trump bullies his critics, such as CNN and The New York Times, encouraging others, such as the Wall Street Journal, to treat him favorably.	特朗普恐吓他的批评者，比如CNN和《纽约时报》，而鼓励其他媒体做出有利于他的报道，比如《华尔街日报》，这可以算是埃尔多安的方法的不太极端的版本。


Elsewhere, government cronies do the bullying: in South Africa, the politically connected Gupta family has targeted former Business Day and Financial Mail editor Peter Bruce for criticizing President Jacob Zuma.	在其他地区，恐吓工作由政府爪牙来完成：在南非，政治关系深厚的古普塔（Gupta）家族将目标对准了批评总统祖玛的前《商业日报》（Business Day）和《金融邮报》（Financial Mail）编辑彼得·布鲁斯（Peter Bruce）。


Leaders may also try to control the narrative by denying access to potentially critical media organizations, as has occurred in the US and, more aggressively, in crisis-ridden Venezuela under President Nicolás Maduro.	领导人还试图通过拒绝接触可能持批评态度的媒体组织来控制媒体叙事，美国就是如此，而在总统马杜罗治下危机重重的委内瑞拉做得更加激进。


Such media capture is vital to enable governments – especially those pursuing what could be unpopular policies – to sustain public support.	这些媒体捕获行为是政府——特别是实施可能不受欢迎的政策的政府——保持公共支持的关键。


Trump’s campaign against the “fake news media” has enabled him to retain the loyalty of much of his base, despite revelations that would have buried any other US politician.	特朗普的反“假新闻媒体”运动让他能够保持大部分基本盘的忠诚，尽管换成另外一位美国政客，恐怕早就被曝光潮葬送了前程。


Just as media capture shapes public perceptions, it can also shape economic outcomes.	正如媒体捕获会影响公众的感觉，它也会影响经济结果。


The economist Maria Petrova argues that media capture can fuel inequality, particularly if the rich are doing the capturing (rather than politicians, who can often be voted out of office).	经济学家玛利亚·彼得洛娃（Maria Petrova）指出，媒体捕获可能主张不平等性，特别是当媒体被富人捕获的时候（被政客捕获反而要更好一些，因为他们常常可以通过选举赶下台）。


Likewise, Giacomo Corneo of the Free University of Berlin believes that increased economic concentration makes media bias more likely.	类似地，柏林自由大学的吉亚科莫·科尔尼奥（Giacomo Corneo）认为，经济集中度的增加会导致媒体更有可能产生偏见。


Media capture is not a new phenomenon.	媒体捕获不是一个新现象。


But the Internet was supposed to free us from it, at least those in countries without overt online censorship.	但互联网本应让我们免受其影响，至少对于没有公开在线审查的国家应该如此。


As entry barriers fell, the proliferation of media outlets, it was believed, would make it difficult to capture them all.	人们认为，随着准入壁垒的消除，媒体机构的兴盛意味着捕获全部媒体变得非常困难。


Even if some outlets were captured, the media could still be an effective watchdog, so long as there was sufficient diversity.	即便一些机构被捕获，传媒行业仍然可以充当可靠的监督员，只要媒体多样性足够大。


This expectation was reinforced by the assumption that more competition could lead to higher-quality news.	这一预期因为增加竞争能够带来更高质量的新闻的假设而强化。


But the opposite may have happened.	但发生的事实正好相反。


The rise of digital media rendered traditional media outlets’ business models untenable.	数字媒体的崛起让传统媒体组织的业务模式难以为继。


Advertisers migrated to the Internet, where slots are cheap, and consumers, with seemingly infinite free options, became less willing to pay for content.	广告转移到了互联网上，那里的投放更加便宜，而消费者有了近乎无穷的免费选择，也不再愿意为内容付费。


As a result, traditional media have endured precipitous declines in revenue and large-scale job losses.	结果，传统媒体的收入大幅下降，岗位也大量流失。


Dwindling resources undermined the quality of reporting, especially because many cash-strapped outlets, as Science Po’s Julia Cagé argues, tried to appeal to as broad an audience as possible.	资源的减少破坏了报道的质量，特别是，如巴黎政治大学的茱莉亚·凯奇（Julia Cagé）所指出的，许多囿于现金的新闻组织试图尽可能广泛地吸引受众。


The need to chase clicks on sites like Facebook, Twitter, and Google eroded the ability of legacy media owners to perform their traditional role in ensuring accountability.	在Facebook、推特和谷歌等网站上追求点击率的必要性制约了传统媒体所有者履行确保问责这一传统责任上的能力。


Declining media revenues promoted capture in another key way: it shifted the incentive for owning a media outlet.	媒体收入的下滑以另一种重要方式助长了媒体捕获：拥有媒体组织的激励发生了变化。


If a newspaper will not provide much in the way of economic returns, the main inducement for purchasing or running one becomes influence.	如果报纸不再能够提供经济回报，那么收购或经营报纸的主要动机就变成了影响力。


The billionaire American casino owner Sheldon Adelson, for example, didn’t purchase The Las Vegas Review-Journal in 2015 or capture Israeli media for the money.	比如，美国亿万富翁赌场主谢尔顿·埃德尔森（Sheldon Adelson）2015年买下《拉斯维加斯评论》（The Las Vegas Review-Journal）、捕获以色列媒体可不是为了钱。


As the media landscape increasingly lends itself to capture, political and corporate accountability will only decline.	随着媒体形势日益向拱手被捕获倾斜，政治和企业问责性也不断地下降。


That is why the Center for International Media Assistance has just released a new report shining a spotlight on the phenomenon – and calling for solutions.	因此，国际媒体协助中心（Center for International Media Assistance）刚刚发布的一份新报告重点阐述了这一现象——并呼吁采取办法解决这个问题。


Free and healthy news media are essential to a well-functioning democracy.	自由和健康的新闻媒体是良好元转的民主的关键。


If we are to protect the latter, we must defend the former at all costs.	如果我们想要保护后者，就必须不惜一切代价捍卫前者。


Learning from Russia’s Other Media War	从俄罗斯的“其他媒体”战中学习


WASHINGTON, DC – Misinformation and propaganda have been around for as long as mass communication.	华盛顿—只要大众传播存在，我们就离不开假信息和宣传。


What has changed is the speed and scale of the delivery.	改变的是推送的速度和规模。


Social media platforms have intensified the spread of pseudoscience and conspiracy theories, threatening democratic institutions in frightening new ways.	社交媒体平台加剧了伪科学和阴谋论的传播，以令人惊悚的新方式威胁着民主制度。


One only has to Google “Russia” and “Trump” to see the impact of so-called fake news on democracy.	只消谷歌搜索一下“俄罗斯”和“特朗普”，就能看到所谓的假新闻对民主的影响。


But the best way to fight disinformation may be to follow the example set by Ukraine, a country that has faced its own barrage of Russian-funded deceit.	但挫败假信息的最佳方式也许可以从乌克兰的例子中找到，这个国家面临着俄罗斯资金支持的谎言的狂轰滥炸。


Around the world, people who believe that facts still matter are fighting back.	放眼世界，相信事实仍然重要的人正在发动反击。


US news organizations are fortifying their positions by emphasizing core journalistic practices such as source verification and fact checking.	美国新闻媒体通过强调来源验证和事实核实等新闻学核心活动巩固自己的地位。


Independent verifiers and fact checkers have also become important resources for the public.	独立验证源和事实核实机构也成为重要的公共资源。


But as the line between news producer and consumer blurs, it is becoming increasingly difficult to navigate the swamp of misinformation.	但随着生产者和消费者之间的界限日益模糊，在假消息的沼泽中游刃有余变得越来越困难。


While a number of new initiatives – such as the News Literacy Project’s Checkology training courses, and Factitious, an online game that tests users’ ability to identify fake news – are trying to bolster the public’s filtering capacity, the impact has so far been limited.	一些新项目——如新闻素养计划（News Literacy Project）的查证学（Checkology）培训课程，以及测试用户假新闻辨别力的在线游戏Factitious都在试图加强公众的筛查能力，但收效有限。


Owing to confirmation bias, exposure to concepts that conflict with ingrained beliefs may entrench assumptions, rather than leading us to revise them.	拜确认偏见所赐，如果你暴露于与你深信不疑的信念相冲突的概念，就有深化你的先入为主，而不是改变你的看法。


And, in a media landscape where even politicians rely on data mining and neuroscience to craft messages based on voters’ state of mind, it is hard to separate truth from falsehood.	在政客也需要依靠数据挖掘和神经科学来炮制基于选民观念状态的消息的媒体环境中，你很难将真相和谎言区分开来。


Against this background, training in “media literacy” – skills to help analyze and evaluate news – has become almost sexy.	在这样的背景下，“媒体素养”——能帮你Fenix和评估新闻的技能——的训练就变得非常重要。


Media literacy programs have been around for decades in the US, focusing on issues like media bias and the impact of violence on children.	新闻素养项目在美国已经存在了几十年，其重点关注的问题包括媒体偏见和儿童暴力的影响等。


But media literacy for today’s world means equipping people of all ages with the means to navigate an increasingly convoluted information ecosystem.	但对于当今世界，媒体素养意味着用能够在日益错综复杂的信息生态系统中游刃有余的方法来武装各个年龄层次的人。


And, as my organization’s recent experience in Ukraine demonstrates, formal training in media literacy may be the best means of winning the war on state-sponsored, politically motivated propaganda.	我的组织在乌克兰的最新经验表明，媒体素养方面的正式训练也许是赢得有政治动机的国家支持的宣传战的最佳策略。


Russia’s propaganda war on Ukraine – a well funded, widely distributed, and highly sophisticated media drive meant to undermine the Ukrainian government’s legitimacy – has been ongoing for years.	俄罗斯在乌克兰的宣传战——用资金充裕、散播广泛、高度成熟的媒体手段来动摇乌克兰政府的合法性——已经持续了多年。


The Russian effort has been so aggressive that, in 2015, the Ukrainian government reportedly warned officials at Facebook and within the US government that a similar strategy could be used against the US.	俄罗斯的手段可谓肆无忌惮，据说2015年乌克兰政府警告在Facebook和美国政府的官员，俄罗斯可能对美国也如法炮制。


Facebook appears to have dismissed that warning, but media development organizations like mine did not.	看起来，Facebook并没有把这个警告当回事，但像我的组织这样的媒体发展机构对此很重视。


In October 2015, experts from IREX – backed by funding from the Canadian government and the support of local Ukrainian organizations – launched a nine-month media literacy-training course called Learn to Discern (L2D).	2015年10月，来自IREX——它由加拿大政府资助，并得到乌克兰本地组织的支持——的专家们推出了一个名为“学会辨别”（Learn to Discern，L2D）的为期九个月的媒体素养培训课程。


Through skills-based workshops and fake news awareness campaigns, we sought to equip citizens with tools to identify Russia’s fabricated stories.	通过基于技能的研讨班和假新闻识别运动，我们试图用能够辨别俄罗斯伪造的消息的工具来武装人民。


The results were encouraging.	结果令人鼓舞。


Program participants reported gaining a deeper appreciation of what is needed to consume news wisely.	L2D的参与者报告说，他们对怎样聪明地接受新闻有了更深的认识。


For example, when we surveyed people at the beginning of the course, only 21% said that they “almost always” crosschecked the news they consume, a troubling rate for a country where trust in media is low but consumption is high.	比如，我们在课程之处的调查表明，只有21%的人自称“几乎每次都会”交叉验证自己所接触到的新闻，在一个媒体信任度低但新闻消费率高的的国家，这一比例令人担忧。


After the training, the percentage surged to 81%.	培训结束后，这一百分比大幅增加到81%。


We also found that the program produced ripple effects: 91% of trainees shared the knowledge they received with an average of six people, such as family members and co-workers.	我们还发现该计划产生了涟漪效应：91%的学员平均向六个人分享了他们所学到的知识，包括家人和同事。


An estimated 90,000 Ukrainians were reached indirectly.	据估计，有90,000乌克兰人被间接影响到。


The L2D training drew on principles developed in the US, but built the methodology from the ground up.	L2D培训系根据美国所制定的原则，但其方法论是全新的。


Collaborating with Ukrainian experts, we incorporated actual media consumption, sharing, and production patterns into the course design.	在乌克兰专家的合作下，我们在课程设计中整合了真实的媒体消费、分享和生产模式。


Most important, we imparted critical thinking skills, teaching participants how to select and process media, not what to consume.	最重要的是，我们还在内容中加入了批判性思考技巧，教会参与者如何遴选和处理媒体，而不是教他们消费什么新闻。


L2D trainers worked across peer networks, building knowledge and skills on the basis of trusted relationships.	L2D培训师通过点对点网络工作，基于信任关系构建知识和技能。


Research shows that loyalty to social groups, plus shared identity and values, have an outsize influence on what we discern to be true.	研究表明，对社会群体的忠诚度，加上共同的身份和价值观，会对我们对何为真的概念产生巨大的影响。


Perhaps the program’s most innovative feature was its focus on teaching consumers how to detect emotional manipulation, and how to disengage from such information.	也许该项目最具创新性的特点是它着重于教会消费者如何识别情绪操纵，以及如何摆脱这些信息。


In a country where emotions regarding Russian influence run high, this skill is essential.	在乌克兰，对俄罗斯的情绪影响力甚大，这一技能也尤为重要。


Long after L2D formally ended, trainers have continued running programs independently, reflecting growth in demand for their services.	L2D项目正式结束后很久，培训师仍在独立继续运营项目，这表明对他们的服务的增长很快。


Surveys conducted this year indicate that trainees, too, remain engaged in combating the fake news phenomenon in their country.	今年所做的调查表明，学员也一直参与打击乌克兰的假新闻现象。


Our experience in Ukraine demonstrates that a multi-layered approach, working at the levels of critical thinking, individual and group psychology, and social trust, provides a better defense against fake news than simple fact checking.	我们的乌克兰经验表明，作用于批判性思维、个体和群体心理和社会信任水平的多层次方法，相较简单的事实核实，更能够抵御假新闻。


Clearly, more work must be done to boost healthy skepticism among news consumers and increase demand for factual information.	显然，还必须做更多的工作去培养新闻消费者的健康的怀疑精神、增加对真信息的需求。


But media literacy training, if organized with local needs in mind, can help.	但媒体素养训练如果能够兼顾地方需求，是大有裨益的。


As disinformation amplifies threats to democracy, and the debate about how to defuse fake news intensifies, consumers can take comfort in knowing that with a little practice, it is possible to discern fact from well-concealed fiction.	假消息加剧了对民主的威胁，而关于如何扼杀假新闻的争论日益激烈，在这样的情况下，让消费者知道只消稍微做一点工作就能将事实和伪装的很好的虚假消息区分开来，将非常令人欣慰。


Facing Down Mental Illness	攻克精神疾病


DAVOS – Contrary to common perception, mental illness is a problem that is neither new nor unique to the developed world.	达沃斯——精神疾病既非新问题，也非发达国家所独有，这不同于绝大多数人的看法。


What we call schizophrenia and bipolar disorder are recognizable in literature dating back to ancient Greece, and The Anatomy of Melancholy, published in 1621 by the English scholar Robert Burton, remains one of the most astute descriptions of depression.	我们所谓的精神分裂症及躁郁症最早的记录文献可以追溯到古希腊时期，英国学者罗伯特·伯顿1621年发表的 《忧郁症的解剖》依然是对抑郁症最准确的描述之一。


Today, low- and middle-income countries account for most of the morbidity and 75% of the suicides that result from mental illness.	今天，精神疾病所导致的致死和自杀病例有75%集中在中低收入国家 。


What is new, and encouraging, is the heightened attention now being given to the problem.	一个令人鼓舞的新现象是人们正在给予这个问题以高度的重视。


Last year at Davos, I helped launch a new Global Agenda Council on Mental Health, after a study by the World Economic Forum and Harvard School of Public Health projected that the global economic costs of mental illness over the next two decades would exceed the costs of cancer, diabetes, and respiratory ailments combined.	去年的达沃斯会议上，我本人参与推出了一项新全球议程理事会心理健康计划，因为世界经济论坛和哈佛大学公共卫生学院预测精神疾病未来二十年耗费的全球经济成本将超过癌症、糖尿病和呼吸系统疾病的总和。


With the stakes so high, the human and economic case for leaders to take mental health seriously is clearly compelling.	因为事关重大，领导人显然有充分的人文和经济理由重视心理健康问题。


As policymakers act, they would be wise to bear in mind that mental disorders are brain disorders.	决策者采取行动时，最好不要忘记精神障碍是一种脑功能紊乱。


Too many people dismiss mental illnesses as problems of character or lack of will, rather than recognizing them as serious, often fatal, medical disorders.	太多人不承认精神疾病是严肃、往往也是致命的内科疾病，而是把精神疾病视为性格问题或缺乏意志力而不加理会。


The brain is a bodily organ just like any other.	和其他任何器官一样，大脑也是一种身体器官。


We should no more blame a person for a malfunctioning brain than for a malfunctioning pancreas, liver, or heart.	脑功能紊乱不应比胰腺、肝脏或心脏问题受到更多责怪。


People with brain disorders deserve exactly the same level and quality of medical care as we expect when confronted with disorders of any other part of the body.	脑部疾病患者应该得到与其他任何身体疾病患者完全相同的医疗水平和服务。


Consider depression, the most common mental illness, which must be distinguished from the sadness, disappointment, or frustration we all experience in our lives.	比如我们必须把最常见的精神疾病抑郁症与生活中所感受到的悲伤、失望和沮丧区分开来。


William Styron’s 1989 memoir, Darkness Visible, rightly calls “depression” a weak word for a debilitating condition that is marked by hopelessness, helplessness, and dread.	威廉·斯泰隆在1989年的回忆录看得见的黑暗中恰当地指出“抑郁症”一词根本不足以形容以无望、无助和恐惧为特点的精神疾病。


In extreme forms, depression can be so disabling that the thought of getting out of bed or making a phone call becomes overwhelming.	极端情况下，抑郁症的破坏作用可以大到让诸如起床或打电话这样的想法都变得令人无法忍受。


Functioning effectively at the workplace can be intensely challenging, which is reflected in the growing recognition of a condition known as “presenteeism,” a variation on “absenteeism”: depressed employees are physically present but mentally absent.	有效工作可能变得极具挑战性，具体表现就是所谓变相“旷工”式的“出勤”让人们认识越来越深刻：抑郁症员工人虽在岗，精神却完全没有放在工作当中。


Mental illnesses can often lead to other health problems.	精神疾病往往会诱发其他健康问题。


Brain disorders like depression and schizophrenia greatly increase the risk of developing chronic ailments, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.	抑郁症和精神分裂症等脑部疾病大大增加了罹患心血管和呼吸系统等慢性病的风险。


People with mental illnesses and substance-abuse issues are at increased risk of infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS.	身患精神疾病并伴有药物滥用问题的人感染艾滋病病毒/艾滋病等传染疾病的风险增加。


Furthermore, mental disorders have a profound impact on the outcome of other illnesses.	此外，精神紊乱会对其他疾病的预后产生深远的影响。


After a heart attack, for example, the prognosis depends on the presence or absence of depression more than on virtually any measure of cardiac function.	比如心脏病发作后，对预后的判断与其说取决于对心功能的实际监测还不如说取决于是否患有抑郁症。


That is why health-care policymakers should embrace a simple adage: “no health without mental health.”	医疗决策者因此应当接受一条简单的格言：“没有精神健康就没有健康。 ”


Indeed, mental illnesses can be as fatal as physical ones.	事实上，精神疾病可以像身体疾病一样致命。


Suicide causes more deaths than homicide.	自杀的死亡人数比他杀更多。


Around 7% of people with major depressive disorder will take their own lives.	7％左右的抑郁症患者会结束自己的生命。


Globally, more than 800,000 people kill themselves every year.	全球范围内每年的自杀人数超过80万。


The number of people scarred by a loved one’s death is much greater; every suicide has many victims.	因所爱的人自杀身亡而心灵遭受创伤者还要多得多； 每一起自杀都有很多受害者。


Tackling the problem will require innovative approaches.	解决这一问题需要采用创新方法。


It is not enough simply to make treatment available.	仅仅提供治疗还远远不够。


People with psychotic disorders may deny that they are ill, and those suffering from depression may be too consumed by self-loathing to feel worthy of help.	精神病患者可能会否认自己有病，而抑郁症患者可能太过执着于自我厌憎，而感觉自己不配寻求帮助。


Even in the developed world, it is estimated that only about half of all people suffering from depression are diagnosed and treated.	即使在发达国家，据估计仅有约半数抑郁症患者得到了诊断和治疗。


According to the World Health Organization, in developing countries, 76-85% of people with severe mental disorders are not treated.	据世界卫生组织统计，发展中国家76-85％ 的严重精神障碍患者并未得到治疗。


We need sensitive ways to identify those at risk and to help those who are most disabled.	我们需要敏锐的方法来寻找高危人群，并为受影响最深的人提供帮助。


Not everybody with a mental illness needs expensive drugs, hospital care, or even direct access to highly trained psychiatrists.	不是每位精神病患者都需要昂贵药物、住院甚至接受训练有素的精神科医生的直接治疗。


We may not have the equivalent of a vaccine for measles or a bed net for malaria, but low-cost, highly effective interventions are possible for most people either at risk for, or already suffering from, a mental illness.	我们或许没有麻疹疫苗或疟疾蚊帐那样的措施预防精神疾病，但对多数可能或者已经罹患精神疾病的人而言，完全可以得到低成本高效的治疗。


In low-resource environments, local residents or family members can be trained to provide brief, effective psychotherapies that treat moderate forms of depression or anxiety.	在资源匮乏的环境下，可以训练当地居民或家庭成员提供针对轻度抑郁或焦虑的简单、有效的心理治疗。


Phone- or Internet-based therapy can be used as well.	此外还可以借助电话和网络进行治疗。


That said, it should be acknowledged that treatments for mental illness remain far from infallible.	也就是说，必须承认对精神疾病的治疗还远未达到万无一失的程度。


Of those who get help, only about half receive the right treatment, and about half of those receiving treatment regress.	在接受治疗的人中，能得到正确治疗的人仅有半数，而接受治疗者中还有半数的人将会复发。


The only way to improve these percentages is to deepen our understanding of normal and abnormal brain functioning.	加深我们对正常和异常脑功能的理解是提高上述百分比的唯一方法。


We need research to develop better treatments for brain disorders in general, and for mental illnesses in particular.	我们需要研究支持，以开发治疗脑部疾病，特别是精神疾病的更好的治疗方法。


Fortunately, some important initiatives launched in the last year are moving us in the right direction.	幸运的是，去年推出的某些重要举措正推动我们走向正确的方向。


In April, the United States National Institutes of Health introduced a ten-year BRAIN Initiative, joining similar efforts in the European Union, Israel, Japan, China, Australia, and Canada.	四月，美国国家卫生研究所推出了10年期脑病治疗计划，欧盟、以色列、日本、中国、澳大利亚和加拿大也采取了类似的举措。


We have also seen unprecedented levels of support from philanthropists.	慈善家对精神疾病的支持也可谓前所未有。


In the US, for example, $650 million was donated recently to the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research.	比方说在美国，斯坦利精神病研究中心最近得到了6. 5亿美元的捐助。


In the United Kingdom, a new charity, MQ, is awarding funds for research on psychological treatments.	在英国，新慈善机构MQ正在为心理治疗研究提供资金援助。


Breakthroughs in biomedical research offer hope that cures for brain disorders will be found.	生物医学研究突破带来了治愈脑病的希望。


By broadening access to existing treatments and investing in research to develop new therapies, we can aspire to eliminate one of the oldest and most widespread causes of human misery.	通过扩大提供现有疗法和投资研发全新疗法，我们可以期待人类痛苦最古老也最普遍的原因将会消除。


Angela Merkel’s New Germany	默克尔的新德国


BERLIN – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) may have won a majority in September’s federal election, but that does not mean that the country’s future is clear.	柏林—德国总理默克尔的基督教民主联盟（CDU）在9月的联邦选举中赢得了多数，但这并不意味着德国的未来已经水落石出。


What emerges as Merkel seeks to form a new coalition with the Greens and the Free Democrats will not only shape Germany’s economic trajectory over the next four years; it will also determine the fate of the country’s transformation into a truly open society.	默克尔需求与绿党和自由民主党结成新的执政联盟，结果如何不但将影响德国在未来四年的经济轨迹，还将决定德国向真正开放社会的转型的命运。


In less than a generation, Germany, once the sick man of Europe, has emerged as a global economic powerhouse.	不出一代人，曾经的欧洲病夫德国就一跃成为全球经济强国。


But the truth is that Germany’s current economic success is less the result of good policies than of favorable external conditions, especially in Europe, which ensured strong demand for German exports.	但事实上，德国当前的经济成功与其说是好政策的结果，不如说是拜（特别是欧洲的）有利的外部环境所赐，外部环境保证了德国出口的强劲需求。


To be sure, important domestic economic reforms enabled Germany to take advantage of external demand.	平心而论，德国通过重要的国内经济改革才能够抓住外部需求。


But they were undertaken long before Merkel came to power, and few meaningful economic reforms have been implemented during her 12-year tenure.	但这些改革在默克尔掌权之前早已开始，而在默克尔12年的执政生涯中，她基本上没有实施什么有意义的经济改革。


For example, domestic private investment remains weak, partly owing to overregulated services and heavy bureaucratic burdens.	比如，国内私人投资一直疲软，部分是因为服务业过度监管和沉重的官僚主义负担。


Moreover, as the German government has preached austerity to its neighbors, it has increased social spending on pensions and transfers, all while allowing net public investment to turn negative.	此外，在德国政府向邻国大肆宣扬紧缩的同时，它自己的养老金和转移支付方面的社会支出却有所增加，与此同时，其净公共投资由正转负。


The much-needed overhaul of the tax system once hyped by the CDU has failed to materialize.	CDU曾经大肆炒作急需的税收制度改革，最后 也没有落实。


And, though employment has increased during Merkel’s tenure, job creation has not succeeded in reducing the low-income segment of the labor market.	而尽管就业率在默克尔执政期间有所增加，但就业岗位创造并没有成功地缩小劳动力市场中的低薪比例。


The parties most likely to form the next government – the CDU (and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union), the Greens, and the Free Democrats – are now fighting over how best to use Germany’s large fiscal surpluses to serve their respective constituents.	最有可能组成下届政府的政党——CDU（及其巴伐利亚姊妹党基督教社会联盟）、绿党和自由民主党目前正在为如何最好地利用德国的巨额财政盈余取悦各自的选民而斗争。


Whatever decision they make, Germany’s economic performance is likely to remain strong, at least in terms of trade and a balanced budget.	不管他们做出什么决定，德国经济表现都有望保持强劲，至少在贸易和平衡预算方面是如此。


The real test of the so-called Jamaica coalition (named for the parties’ colors) lies elsewhere.	所谓的牙买加联盟（得名于三个政党的颜色）的真正考验在于别处。


What Merkel has lacked in economic-policy achievements, she has made up for in bringing about social change.	默克尔缺少经济政策方面的成就，就用社会变革来弥补。


Under her leadership, Germany has become the open society it is today.	在她的领导下，德国摇身变为今天的开放社会。


But it is also an increasingly divided society.	但同时也是一个日益分裂的社会。


As it stands, some 20% of Germany’s population of 82 million has a migrant background, and close to five million are Muslim.	目前，8,200万德国人中有大约20%有移民背景，其中五百万是穆斯林。


This multiculturalism is reflected in changing perspectives on the part of all Germans.	而已多元文化性反映在德国各地的变化中。


Four out of five Germans now consider Islam and homosexuality to be part of German society; three out of four say the same about migrants and refugees.	目前，五分之四的德国人认同伊斯兰教和同性恋是德国社会的一部分； 四分之三对移民和难民的观点也是如此。


And Germany has one of the most pro-European populations on the continent.	德国也是欧洲亲欧人口最多的国家。


The last three governments, all led by Merkel, have contributed mightily to this transformation.	过去三届政府——均由默克尔领导——对这一转变居功至伟。


Critics call Merkel the first social democratic chancellor from a conservative party, because she has embraced many progressive policies, while preaching stability and traditional values.	批评者说默克尔是第一位来自保守派的社会民主党总理，因为她采取了许多进步主义政策，同时推进稳定和传统价值观。


Arguably her most important decision – which almost cost her the chancellorship, but might ultimately shape her legacy – was her 2015 decision to accept, despite fierce opposition from many in her own party, almost 1.5 million asylum-seekers and push for their integration into German society.	也许她最重要的决定——这几乎让她失去了总理宝座，但也许最终将成为她的遗产——是2015年接收了近150万寻求庇护者并促进他们融入德国社会，尽管她自己的政党中对此也不乏强烈反对之士。


Germany’s Merkel-led governments have also supported early childhood education and children’s rights, while overseeing substantial progress on gender equality.	默克尔所领导的德国政府还支持幼儿教育和儿童权利，同时还大大推进了性别平等。


Broader, more flexible access to the labor market, expansion of early childhood facilities, and financial incentives have driven an increase in female labor-force participation to more than 70%, one of the highest in the industrialized world.	能够广泛地、更灵活地进入劳动力市场，儿童教育设施的普及，以及金融激励，让女性劳动力参与率提高到70%以上，为工业化国家的最高水平之一。


The current German government also implemented a 30% quota for women on supervisory boards of large companies, as well as a wage transparency law aimed at reducing the country’s gender pay gap, which is still a whopping 21%.	本届德国政府还实施了大公司董事会必须将30%席位分配给女性的政策，并采取了旨在降低性别薪酬差异（目前仍高达21%）的工资透明法。


While Merkel did not spearhead these reforms – not least because she had to avoid alienating those in her party who viewed them negatively – she offered tacit support.	尽管默克尔不是这些改革的领导者——因为她必须疏离对此持负面态度的本党成员——但她提供了策略性支持。


Similarly, though Merkel herself voted earlier this year against legalizing gay marriage, which many in her party do not support, she accepted graciously the Bundestag’s decision, declaring that she hoped the vote would not only promote “respect between different opinions,” but also bring “more social cohesion and peace.”	类似地，尽管默克尔本人在今年早些时候的同性婚姻合法化投票中投了反对票——因为本党不少成员不支持该立法——但她热情地接受了德国联邦议院的决定，宣布她希望此次投票不仅促进了“不同选项间的尊重”，也带来了“更多的社会凝聚与和平”。


Ultimately, it is Merkel’s talent at bridging social and political divides that has made Germany’s transformation into an open society possible.	说到底，默克尔在弥合社会和政治分歧方面的才干，让德国向开放社会的转型成为可能。


And this, not economic policy, might ultimately become the greatest achievement of her chancellorship.	而这，而不是经济政策，可能最终成为她总理生涯的最大成就。