It was Gandhi’s belief that reflection could motivate action by recalibrating our moral compass.	甘地相信思考能调整我们的道德指南，激励我们采取行动。


What makes this fund unique is not the series of new benchmarks it sets.	让这家基金独一无二的不是它所设立的全新标准。


Rather, it signals a change in how we meet the challenges of an emergency.	相反，它预示我们改变了应对紧急挑战的方式。


Going beyond present demands, the fund is based on the needs of the future.	该基金超越了现实需求，转而以未来的需求为依据。


In providing resources to deliver education, the fund is a bold affirmation of a better tomorrow – an unwavering promise to unlock talent, develop potential, and secure futures for all children, wherever they are.	通过提供教育所需资源，该基金大胆地确认了明天会更好的承诺——毫不动摇地承诺将发掘才能、释放潜力，并确保所有儿童（无论他们身处何处）都拥有光明的未来。


By establishing “Education Cannot Wait”, we are sending a message to the downcast and dispossessed everywhere.	通过设立“教育不能等待”基金，我们在向世界一切角落的无依无靠者宣誓。


Education, at its best, offers something that food, shelter, and healthcare can never themselves provide: hope, the chance to plan, and to prepare for the future.	从好的方面而言，教育提供了食物、住所和医疗本身都无法提供的东西：那就是希望、规划的机会和做好准备迎接美好的未来。


Your Data or Your Life	数据还是生活


LONDON – Apple’s new watch keeps track of your health.	伦敦——苹果的新款腕表跟踪您的健康信息。


Google Now gathers the information needed to compute the ideal time for you to leave for the airport.	谷歌现在搜集信息，计算您离家前往机场的理想时机。


Amazon tells you the books you want, the groceries you need, the films you will like – and sells you the tablet that enables you to order them and more.	亚马逊向您推荐您想要的书籍、杂货、您喜欢的电影——还向您出售订购上述物品和更多物品所需的平板电脑。


Your lights turn on when you get close to home, and your house adjusts to your choice of ambient temperature.	您快到家时家里的灯会打开，房间会自动调整到您选择的环境温度。


This amalgamation and synthesis of digital services and hardware is designed to make our lives easier, and there is no doubt that it has.	这种数字服务与硬件的融汇和综合目的是让生活变得更为便利，而且这样的目的无疑也已经达到。


But have we stopped asking fundamental questions, both of ourselves and of the companies we entrust to do all of these things?	但我们是否不再向自己和做这一切的公司提出根本性的问题？


Have we given sufficient consideration to the potential cost of all of this comfort and ease, and asked ourselves if the price is worth it?	我们是否考虑过这种轻松舒适的潜在代价，并询问自己付出这样的代价到底值不值？


Every time we add a new device, we give away a little piece of ourselves.	每次添置新设备，我们都交出了一小部分自己。


We often do this with very little knowledge about who is getting it, much less whether we share their ethics and values.	我们往往并不了解谁得到这些信息，更不用说他们的道德和价值观我们是否同意。


We may have a superficial check-box understanding of what the companies behind this convenience do with our data; but, beyond the marketing, the actual people running these organizations are faceless and nameless.	我们或许通过复选框表格在表面上了解了提供便利服务的企业都用我们的数据做些什么； 但超出市场营销的范畴，我们既不熟悉机构经营者的面孔，也不熟悉他们的名字。


We know little about them, but they sure know a lot about us.	有关他们的信息我们了解的少之又少，他们却无疑掌握着我们的大量信息。


The idea that companies can know where we are, what we have watched, or the content of our medical records was anathema a generation ago.	企业能了解我们的去向、我们看过什么或者我们病例的内容，这在上辈人看来根本无法接受。


The vast array of details that defined a person was widely distributed.	勾勒个人轮廓的零散信息分散在各种机构。


The bank knew a bit, the doctor knew a bit, the tax authority knew a bit, but they did not all talk to one another.	银行了解一点、医生了解一点、税务机构了解一点，但他们之间互不交流。


Now Apple and Google know it all and store it in one handy place.	现在苹果和谷歌却尽在掌握，而且统一保存、方便取用。


That is great for convenience, but not so great if they decide to use that information in ways with which we do not proactively agree.	这固然带来极大的便利，但如果他们决定把信息用在我们没有主动同意的地方，我们又该怎么做？


And we have reason to call into question companies’ judgment in using that data.	而且我们有理由质疑企业使用数据时的判断力。


The backlash to the news that Facebook used people’s news feeds to test whether what they viewed could alter their moods was proof of that.	Facebook利用人们推送的新闻消息测试他们所看到内容能否影响其情绪所引发的强烈反对证明了这一点。


I do not recall checking a box to say that that was okay.	我不记得勾选过表格说这种做法可以允许。


Recently, hackers misappropriated photos sent via Snapchat, a service used primarily by young people that promises auto-deletion of all files upon viewing.	不久前，黑客盗用了通过 Snapchat发送的照片，Snapchat的用户多数是年轻人，网站向他们承诺所有文件在看过后会自动销毁。


Likewise, health-care data were always considered private, so that patients would be open and honest with health-care professionals.	同样，医疗数据一向被视为机密，这样患者在面对医生时才会开放和诚实。


As the lines between health care and technology businesses become hazy, some manufacturers of “wearables” and the software that runs on them are lobbying to have their products exempted from being considered medical devices – and thus from regulatory requirements for reliability and data protection.	随着医疗和技术行业的界限变得模糊，有些“可穿戴设备”及其软件的生产商正拼命游说让其产品不被视为医疗设备——这样就可以不受可靠性和数据保护等监管要求的限制。


Privacy is only one part of a larger discussion around data ownership and data monopoly, security, and competition.	隐私权仅仅是围绕数据所有权、数据垄断、数据安全和数据竞争等讨论的组成部分。


It is also about control and destiny.	这也是一场控制权和命运的争夺战。


It is about choice and proactively deciding how people’s data are used and how people use their own data.	这实际是一种选择，主动决定数据应如何利用及人们如何利用数据。


More mature firms have phased in formal protocols, with ethics officers, risk committees, and other structures that oversee how data are collected and used, though not always successfully (indeed, they often depend on trial and error).	成熟的企业已开始建立规程，虽然并非总能奏效（实际执行时往往依靠试错），但安排了专门的道德官员、风险委员会和其他机构对如何搜集和利用信息进行监管。


Small new companies may have neither such protocols nor the people – for example, independent board members – to impose them.	新成立的小公司可能既无规程也无执行人员——如独立董事。


If serious ethical lapses occur, many consumers will no longer use the service, regardless of how promising the business model is.	如果出现严重的道德过失，无论商业模式多么前途无量，很多消费者也可能不再使用这项服务。


We like new applications and try them out, handing over access to our Facebook or Twitter accounts without much thought about the migration of our personal data from big companies with some modicum of oversight to small companies without rigorous structures and limits.	我们喜欢新应用并进行试用，拱手交出Facebook或Twitter账户的访问权，而很少想到个人信息通过这种方式从寥寥可数的受监管的大公司转移到了不具备严格结构和限制的小企业。


Consumers believe or expect that someone somewhere is keeping an eye on this, but who exactly would that be?	消费者相信或期望有人在某处关注信息的保密工作，但这个人究竟是谁？


In Europe, legislation to protect personal data is not comprehensive, and much of the rest of the world lacks even rudimentary safeguards.	欧洲保护个人信息的立法还很不完善，而欧洲以外的世界大部分地区甚至还未建立基本的保障措施。


After exploring this issue with legislators in several countries over the past couple of months, it has become abundantly clear that many do not have a full grasp of the myriad issues that need to be considered.	过去几个月在与几个国家的立法者探讨这一问题后，我清楚的意识到很多人对于需要考虑的问题并不具备十足的把握。


It is a difficult subject to address, and doing so is impeded by lobbying efforts and incomplete information.	解决这一问题非常棘手，而且游说和信息不畅还在阻碍问题的解决。


In the short term, young companies should view ethics not as a marketing gimmick, but as a core concern.	短期内，年轻公司应当将道德视为一种核心关注，而不只是一种营销噱头。


All organizations should invest in ethics officers or some sort of review process involving people who can assess all of the implications of a great-sounding idea.	所有机构应投资设置道德官员或设立某种审核程序，让有能力评估某伟大理念所有内涵的人悉数参与其中。


Legislators need to educate themselves – and the public – and exercise more oversight.	立法者需要在自我教育的同时教育公众，并落实更严格的监督。


For example, just as many countries did with car seatbelts a generation ago, a public-safety campaign could be paired with legislation to explain and promote two-step verification.	比方说，正像很多国家上代人曾在汽车安全带问题上开展过的那样，应当在立法的同时开展公众安全运动，解释并宣传两步验证法则。


In the longer term, as we rightly move toward universal Internet access, we need to ask: How much of ourselves are we willing to give away?	长远来看，在理所当然朝着普遍互联网接入过渡的过程中，我们需要问问自己：我们愿意交出多少个人信息作为限度？


What happens when sharing becomes mandatory – when giving access to a personal Facebook account is a job requirement, and health services are withheld unless a patient submits their historical Fitbit data?	如果共享成为强制规定将会发生什么——当交出个人Facebook账户成为一种工作要求，或者强制患者提供Fitbit历史数据否则不予提供医疗服务？


If that is the future we want, we should stride toward it with full awareness and a sense of purpose, not meander carelessly until we fall into a hole, look up, and wonder how we got there.	如果那是我们想要的未来，我们应该意识清醒地向这一目标大踏步前进。 我们不能漫无目的地乱逛直到落入陷阱，之后才抬起头来，迷迷糊糊地不知道怎么会这样。


Is There A Right To Secede?	分离权成立吗？


BARCELONA – The European Union has brought 28 countries into a closer political and economic union.	巴塞罗那——28个国家在欧盟的旗帜下结成了紧密的政治和经济联盟。


Paradoxically, it has also made it more feasible to contemplate the breakup of some of those countries.	略显荒谬的是，由欧盟来决定某些国家应否解体也是比较恰当的。


Independence for a small state outside of a political and economic group like the EU would be risky nowadays.	当今世界像欧盟这种政治经济体之外的小国独立是非常危险的。


Within the EU, however, the barriers between states – and thus the economic and political risks of independence – are lower.	但是在欧盟内部，国家壁垒——也就是独立的经济和政治风险——却是相对较低的。


Consider Scotland, where a popular referendum on independence will be held on September 18.	以苏格兰为例，那里在9月18日即将就独立议题举行公民投票。


The referendum is the result of the landslide victory by the Scottish National Party in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election.	此次公投是苏格兰国民党在2011年苏格兰议会选举中大获全胜的产物。


British Prime Minister David Cameron has argued against Scotland leaving the United Kingdom, but he has not opposed holding the referendum.	英国首相卡梅伦反对苏格兰脱离英国，但并没有反对举行公民投票。


Opinion polls taken since the wording of the referendum (“Should Scotland be an independent country?”) was announced indicate that the “yes” side is unlikely to gain a clear majority.	公决措辞确定后举行的民调（“苏格兰是否应当成为独立国家？ ”）显示“赞成独立”的一方不大可能占据明显多数。


In Spain, there is a national debate about independence for Catalonia, where national identity is strengthened by the fact that the majority of the region’s residents speak Catalan as well as Spanish.	有关加泰罗尼亚独立的话题在西班牙全国范围内引发热议，那里多数居民既讲加泰罗尼亚语又讲西班牙语凸显了国家的独立资格。


By contrast, only about 1% of Scots can speak Scottish Gaelic.	相比之下，只有约1%的苏格兰人会讲苏格兰盖尔语。


Perhaps as a result, support for independence in Catalonia appears to be far broader, with about half of the region’s residents saying that they support secession.	或许正因为这个原因，加泰罗尼亚独立的支持面更广，表态支持独立的居民几乎占到地区居民的半数。


But the Spanish parliament voted overwhelmingly against allowing the Catalan government to hold a referendum on independence, and the central government has said that such a vote would be unconstitutional.	但西班牙议会以压倒性多数反对允许加泰罗尼亚政府就独立举行公投，同时中央政府表示这样的投票不符合宪法原则。


Artur Mas, President of Catalonia’s regional government, has vowed to go ahead with a non-binding referendum anyway.	但加泰罗尼亚自治区政府主席阿图尔·马斯公开承诺要举行非约束性公投。


If a majority of the voters in a distinct region of a country favor independence, does that mean that they have a right to secede?	如果某国家地区的多数选民赞成独立，是否就意味着他们有权分裂？


There are surely more questions that need to be addressed than that single one.	除此以外肯定还有更多问题需要解决的。


What if a region’s secession leaves behind a rump state that is no longer viable?	地区分裂是否会留下无法独立发展的残余国家？


Within the EU, this is less of an issue, given that small states – in theory – still benefit from free trade within the Union; but, outside of the EU, the situation of the remaining state can be dire.	鉴于小国从理论上讲仍然从欧盟内部的自由贸易中有利可图，这个问题在欧盟并不突出； 但在欧盟之外，其余国家的状况就远没有那么乐观了。


In September 1938, Hitler threatened to attack Czechoslovakia in order to bring the ethnic Germans living near the German border under his rule.	1938年9月，希特勒扬言攻打捷克斯洛伐克，将生活在德国边境附近的德意志族纳入自己的统治之下。


The Munich Agreement gave this region, referred to by the Nazis as the Sudetenland, to Germany, leaving Czechoslovakia without defensible borders and paving the way for the Nazi invasion and partition of the country the following March.	慕尼黑协议将这块纳粹称之为苏台德的地区划给了德国，致使捷克斯洛伐克边界无险可守，从而为第二年3月纳粹侵略并瓜分该国铺平了道路。


Had a free and fair referendum been offered to the Sudeten Germans, a majority might have backed union with Germany.	如果给与苏台德地区德意志族自由公平的公决权，多数人可能会支持并入德国。


But would that have given them the right to leave the remainder of Czechoslovakia defenseless against its large and hostile neighbor?	但他们是否有权就此让捷克斯洛伐克的其他地区在强大敌对的邻国面前丧失防御能力？


The UK and Spain do not need to fear that independence for Scotland and Catalonia would expose them to such threats.	英国和西班牙不必担心苏格兰和加泰罗尼亚独立会使他们面临同样的威胁。


Nonetheless, the secession of Scotland would deprive the UK of significant North Sea oil revenues, on which the economics of Scottish independence largely relies, and Spain could also suffer from the loss of Catalonia’s disproportionately large contribution to the Spanish economy.	但苏格兰分裂势必剥夺英国巨额的北海石油收入，上述石油收入是独立的苏格兰经济在很大程度上必须依赖的。 而西班牙也可能因失去加泰罗尼亚对经济的显著贡献而蒙受损失。


Widespread human rights violations, either caused or tolerated by a national government, can give rise to what is sometimes called a remedial right to secession for a region’s inhabitants.	大面积的人权侵犯，无论在国家政府的领导还是纵容下，都有可能导致某地区居民补偿性地寻求分裂。


If other remedies fail in such a situation, secession might be justified as a last resort, even if it imposes heavy costs on the rump state.	如果其他补救方法都未能奏效，分裂可能成为追求公平的最后手段，即使它会使残余国家付出惨重代价。


That was the case when Bangladesh seceded from Pakistan, and it was also allegedly the case when NATO supported Kosovo’s independence from Serbia.	孟加拉脱离巴基斯坦时就属于这种情况，有人认为同样的情况也适用于北约支持科索沃独立于塞尔维亚。


But this is not true of Scotland or Catalonia; nor, despite Russian propaganda, does it appear to be the case for those regions of Ukraine with ethnic Russian majorities.	但苏格兰或加泰罗尼亚却并非如此； 尽管俄国竭力宣传，俄罗斯族占多数的乌克兰地区也不属于这种情况。


If Scotland and Catalonia ever become independent countries, it will only be because the UK and Spain permit it.	只有得到英国和西班牙的许可，苏格兰和加泰罗尼亚才能真正成为独立国家。


All states have an interest in stability, so it is hard to imagine that, in the absence of widespread, grave, and undeniable human rights violations, other states would recognize a region that, after being part of a state for many centuries, declared itself independent without the acquiescence of the country from which it secedes.	稳定符合所有国家的利益，因此很难想象在没有严重、大范围、无可否认的侵犯人权行为的情况下，其他国家能够承认一个几百年来一直属于某国领土的地区在未征得被分离国同意的情况下宣布独立主张。


The EU is also unlikely to accept Scotland or Catalonia as a member if the UK or Spain rejects their claims to independence.	如果英国和西班牙反对苏格兰或加泰罗尼亚独立，欧盟也不太可能接受他们加入成员国。


Indeed, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso has said that the EU may reject Scotland and Catalonia’s applications, or at least delay them considerably, even if the UK and Spain do accept their independence.	事实上，欧盟委员会主席若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐已经表示就算英国和西班牙接受苏格兰和加泰罗尼亚的独立的请求，欧盟也可能拒绝这两国提出的申请，至少也会尽量延缓他们入盟的步伐。


And, without EU membership, it is hard to imagine that a majority of people in Scotland or Catalonia would take the plunge into economic uncertainty that independence would bring.	没有欧盟成员国席位，苏格兰或加泰罗尼亚多数民众甘冒独立带来的经济风险简直是难以想象的。


The role of a referendum in a region seeking to secede can therefore only be a form of persuasion aimed at the government of the existing state.	因此以分裂为目的的全民公投只能是针对现有国家政府的说服方法。


A large turnout showing a clear majority for independence would be a way to say: See how strongly we feel about this issue.	大批投票者明确支持独立就是要让政府知道：看看我们对这个问题感受多么强烈。


We are so dissatisfied with the status quo that most of us now favor secession.	我们对现状如此不满，以至于多数人现在赞成分裂。


If you want us to stay, you need to address the grievances that have caused a majority of us to want to leave.	如果想让我们留下，你们就必须消除使我们多数人想要离开的不满情绪。


The Eternal Return of the Plague	瘟疫的永恒回归


NORMAN, OKLAHOMA – “Fearsome Plague Epidemic Strikes Madagascar.”	诺曼，俄克拉荷马——“可怕的瘟疫疾病袭击马达加斯加。


That recent New York Times headline might sound like the synopsis of a horror movie.	”最近纽约时报的头版头条可能听上去像一部恐怖电影的剧情梗概。


The epidemic gripping Madagascar is not just any plague, and it certainly isn’t some Hollywood apocalypse.	肆虐马达加斯加的传染病不仅仅是瘟疫，当然也不是某种由好莱坞杜撰的世界末日。


It’s the plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, agent of the notorious bubonic plague.	这是一种由鼠疫杆菌引起的细菌性瘟疫，臭名昭著的黑死病就是由鼠疫杆菌造成的。


For most people, “the plague” conjures up images of the medieval Black Death, and perhaps a vaguely reassuring sense that, in the developed world, such ancient dangers are long past.	对多数人来说，“瘟疫”使人联想起中世纪黑死病的形象，或许无形中还有一种模模糊糊但放心感，那就是在发达国家，如此古老的危险早已过去了。


But in recent years, thanks to the work of geneticists, archaeologists, and historians, we now know that human civilization and the plague have a much deeper and more intimate association than previously assumed.	但近年来，由于遗传学家、考古学家和历史学家的努力，我们现在知道人类文明和瘟疫之间的关系比以前所想象的要紧密得多。


Lessons learned from studying this historic interaction could reshape how we think about global public health today.	研究这一历史性事件所获得的经验教训或许可以完全改变我们如何认识今天的全球公共健康。


All infectious diseases are caused by pathogens – bacteria, viruses, protozoa, and parasites – that are capable of subverting our immune systems long enough to make us sick.	所有传染病均由病原体引起——包括细菌、病毒、原生动物和寄生虫——它们能长时间颠覆我们的免疫系统，使我们患病。


These organisms are the product of their own biological evolution, and the history of the plague’s development is perhaps (along with maybe HIV) the most detailed biography of any pathogen known to science.	这些有机体是我们自身生物进化的产物，而瘟疫发展史（再加上艾滋病毒）或许是科学上已知的任何病原体最详细的进化记录。


The plague bacterium, in its most destructive form, is about 3,000 years old.	鼠疫病菌最具破坏力的形式出现已经有大约3000年的历史。


It evolved in Central Asia as a rodent disease; humans were accidental victims.	它在中亚地区演变为一种啮齿动物疾病； 人类不过是偶然的牺牲品。


From the germ’s point of view, people make poor hosts, because we die quickly and are usually a terminus, not a transmitter.	站在细菌的角度来看，人类是不合格的宿主，因为我们会很快死亡，因此往往会成为疾病的终点，而不是传播器。


The plague is spread principally by the bite of fleas, and a few thousand years ago, the bacterium acquired a genetic mutation that made it ferociously effective at spreading.	瘟疫主要通过跳蚤的叮咬传播，而且几千年前，这种细菌获得了一种基因突变，使其在传播的过程中效果异常显著。


This adaptation improved the plague’s biological fitness, which, for rodents – and the humans who live near them – has proven to be a nightmare.	这种适应能力提高了瘟疫的生物适应性，而这对啮齿动物——以及生活在啮齿动物周围的人来说——已经被证明是一场噩梦。


Thanks to new genomic evidence, we can say with greater confidence how long this nightmare has been recurring.	多亏有了新的基因组证据，我们可以更有信心地推测这场噩梦何时结束。


One of the most surprising and solidly confirmed findings in recent years has been the prevalence of plague in samples from Stone Age and Bronze Age societies in Europe and Central Asia.	近年来，最出人意料且已经得到证实的成果之一是欧洲和中亚石器时代及青铜器时代社会流行瘟疫的样本。


While it remains unclear what role plague played in the failure of those societies, it is reasonable to assume that the disease has long influenced human history.	尽管瘟疫在这些社会失败中所起的作用尚不明确，但我们有理由认为这种疾病早已影响到人类历史。


What is now beyond question is that Yersinia pestis was indeed the pathogen responsible for two of the most destructive pandemics ever.	现在已经毋庸置疑的是鼠疫杆菌确实是造成有史以来两次破坏性最强的流行病病原体。


The Black Death, which lives on in popular imagination to this day, arrived from Central Asia in the 1340s, and in the space of a few years, wiped out roughly half of the population in the regions it struck.	黑死病迄今为止仍然普遍存在于人们的想象之中，这种病于14世纪40年代来源于中亚，并在短短几年时间内消灭了感染地区近半数的人口。


The disease then lingered for a few more centuries, killing many more.	这种病之后又断断续续停留了几个世纪，导致更多的人因此丧生。


But this entire episode is properly known as the “second pandemic.”	但这整个过程往往被称为“二次流行”。


The first pandemic began in AD 541, during the reign of the Roman Emperor Justinian.	一次流行始于公元541年，在罗马皇帝查士丁尼统治时期爆发。


The outbreak is known as the Justinianic plague, and, like the Black Death, it cut a swath of destruction from inner Asia to the shores of the Atlantic in the space of a few years.	那次爆发被称为查士丁尼瘟疫，而且像黑死病一样，它在短短几年内破坏了亚洲内陆到大西洋沿岸的一系列地区。


Total mortality was in the tens of millions, and stupefied contemporaries were certain they were living on the verge of the last judgment.	总死亡人数高达数千万，而且当时被吓傻了的民众认为他们生活在终极审判的边缘。


As with the Black Death, later historians questioned whether a rodent disease could cause destruction on such a scale.	像黑死病一样，后世历史学家质疑啮齿类动物疾病是否能造成如此规模的破坏。


But in recent years, the pathogen’s genetic traces have been found in sixth-century graves, and the DNA evidence convicts Yersinia pestis of this ancient mass murder as definitively as it would in a modern courtroom.	但近年来，这种病原体的遗传痕迹已经在公元六世纪的墓穴中被找到，而DNA证据就像现代法庭那样不容置疑的宣判鼠疫杆菌就是这次古代大屠杀的罪魁。


The plague triggered a demographic crisis that helped to topple the Romans’ “eternal empire.”	瘟疫引发了一场人口危机，并成为推翻罗马人“永恒帝国”的一个因素。


Plague pandemics were events of mind-boggling ecological intricacy.	鼠疫流行是令人难以置信的复杂生态事件。


They involved a minimum of five species, in perilous alignment: the bacterium itself, the reservoir host such as marmots or gerbils, the flea vector, the rodent species in close quarters with humans, and the human victims.	它们至少涉及五个物种，而且采取危险的排列方式：细菌本身、土拨鼠或沙鼠等储存宿主、跳蚤媒介、与人类近距离接触的啮齿类动物以及人类受害者本身。


The germ first had to leave its native Central Asia.	细菌首先必须离开其中亚本土。


In the case of the Justinianic plague, it seems to have done so by exploiting the shipping networks in the Indian Ocean.	查士丁尼瘟疫似乎是通过印度洋的航运网络来实现其自身的传播。


Once within the Roman Empire, it found an environment transformed by human civilization, along with massive colonies of rodents fattened on the ancient world’s ubiquitous granaries.	一旦进入罗马帝国，细菌就发现了经人类文明改造的环境，以及被古代世界里无处不在的谷仓所养肥的大量啮齿类动物。


Human expansion helped rodents prosper, and rat infestations, in turn, intensified and prolonged the plague’s outbreak.	人类的扩张使得啮齿类动物繁荣兴旺，而鼠类动物大规模出没又反过来加剧并延长了鼠疫的爆发。


There is tantalizing evidence that climate change also played a role in triggering the first pandemic.	有令人震惊的证据显示气候变化也在引发第一次流行病的过程中发挥了作用。


Just a few years before the appearance of the plague on Roman shores, the planet experienced one of the most abrupt incidents of climate change in the last few thousand years.	就在罗马海岸出现鼠疫短短几年前，这个星球经历了过去数千年来一次最突然的气候变化。


A spasm of volcanic explosions – in AD 536, when historians reported a year without summer, and again in AD 539-540 – upset the global climate system.	一系列的火山爆发——发生在公元536年，当时的历史学家报告没有进入夏天，而且公元539到540年又再次爆发了气候事件——破坏了全球气候系统。


The precise mechanisms by which climate events fueled plague remain contested, but the link is unmistakable, and the lesson is worth underscoring: the complex relationship between climate and ecosystems impacts human health in unexpected ways.	气候事件引发鼠疫的确切机制仍然存在争议，但其中存在联系是准确无误的，这其中的经验教训值得强调：气候与生态系统之间的复杂关系以意想不到的方式影响着人类的健康。


The plague in Madagascar today is an offshoot of what is known as the “third plague pandemic,” a global dispersion of Yersinia pestisthat radiated from China in the late nineteenth century.	今天发生在马达加斯加的疫情是19世纪末从中国向外辐射的全球鼠疫杆菌扩散的所谓“第三次瘟疫大流行”的一个分支。 目前仍然没有疫苗可供使用；


There still is no vaccine; while antibiotics are effective if administered early, the threat of antimicrobial resistance is real.	虽然早期使用抗生素能产生一定效果，但抗生素耐药性的威胁却是切实存在的。


That may be the deepest lesson from the long history of this scourge.	这或许是这次漫长灾难最深刻的历史教训。


Biological evolution is cunning and dangerous.	生物进化过程既狡猾又危险。


Small mutations can alter a pathogen’s virulence or its efficiency of transmission, and evolution is relentless.	小规模基因突变可以改变病原体的毒性或传播效率，而且进化过程既残酷又无情。


We may have the upper hand over plague today, despite the headlines in East Africa.	尽管媒体报导了东非的头条新闻，但面对瘟疫我们今天或许还能占据上风。


But our long history with the disease demonstrates that our control over it is tenuous, and likely to be transient – and that threats to public health anywhere are threats to public health everywhere.	但我们与这种疾病斗争的长期历史表明我们的控制力可能微不足道，而且很可能只是一个暂时的过程——任何地方的公共卫生威胁最终都会威胁到所有地方的公共卫生。


Water Management Is Health Management	水管理就是健康管理


LONDON – With climate change accelerating and its effects exacerbating other geopolitical and development crises, the role of environmental protection in preserving and improving human wellbeing has become starkly apparent.	伦敦—随着气候变化的加快，其影响令其他地缘政治和发展危机变得更加严重，环境保护在捍卫和改善人类福祉方面的作用也变得异常突出。


This recognition lies at the heart of the concept of “planetary health,” which focuses on the health of human civilization and the condition of the natural systems on which it depends.	这一认识成为“地球健康”概念的核心，这一概念关注人类文明的健康和作为人类文明的基础的自然系统的状况。


The concept’s logic is simple: if we try to deliver better health to a growing population, without regard for the health and security of our natural resources, we will not just struggle to make new strides; we will reverse the progress already made.	这一概念的逻辑很简单：如果我们想要让日益增加的人口变得更加健康，而不顾我们的自然资源的健康和安全，那么我们将举步维艰，甚至已经取得的进步也有可能遭到逆转。


Where things get complicated is in applying the concept, particularly when addressing the nexus of water services, health, and ecosystem integrity.	复杂之处在于如何应用这一概念，特别是在解决水利、卫生和生态系统完整性这一连锁问题上。


Since at least 1854, when John Snow discovered that cholera was spread through contaminated water supplies in central London, humans have understood that polluted water is bad for our health.	1854年，约翰·斯诺（John Snow）发现霍乱通过伦敦市中心被污染的供水系统传播，此后，人类便已认识到受到污染的水对我们的健康非常不利。


The degradation of freshwater ecosystems often brings disease, just as the protection or strengthening of such ecosystems improves health outcomes.	淡水生态系统的破坏常常会带来疾病，一如保护或强化这类生态系统能够改善健康状况。


But, while it is now well understood that progress in one area improves outcomes in another, such co-beneficial dynamics often are insufficient to spur investment in both areas.	但是，尽管如今人们已经十分清楚，一个领域的进步能够改善另一领域的结果，但这一共赢动态常常不足以刺激同时加大两个领域的投资。


For example, investing to protect a watershed can also protect biodiversity and improve water quality in associated rivers, thereby benefiting human health.	比如，投资于保护分水岭同时也有利于保护生物多样性，改善相关河流的水质，从而有利于人类健康。


But if the goal is explicitly to improve human health, it might be more cost-effective simply to invest in a water-treatment plant.	但如果把目标直接定位改善人类健康，那么也许仅仅投资于水处理工厂性价比更高。


A more compelling dynamic is complementarity: when investment in one area increases the returns on investment in other areas.	互补性的动态更加令人信服：一个领域的投资能提高另一个领域的投资回报。


In this scenario, investments in protecting a watershed would aim not just to produce returns directly, but also to boost the returns of simultaneous investments in human health.	在这一情形中，投资于保护分水岭不仅着眼于产生直接回报，更着眼于提高同时做出的人类健康投资的回报。


Complementarity produces mutually reinforcing dynamics that improve outcomes across the board.	互补性产生互相强化的动态，全面改善多领域结果。


A well-functioning water sector already attempts to balance complementary interventions.	运转良好的水部门已经开始尝试平衡互补性干预。


Indeed, such a system amounts to a multidisciplinary triumph of human ingenuity and cooperation – involving engineering, hydrology, governance, and urban planning – with far-reaching complementary impacts on both human health and economic development.	事实上，这套系统能产生人类智能与合作的多学科胜利（multidisciplinary triumph）——包括工程学、水文学、治理和城市规划——对人类健康和经济发展产生意义深远的互补性影响。


In 1933, through the Tennessee Valley Authority Act, the United States established an agency whose purpose was to build hydroelectric dams on the Tennessee River.	1933年，美国通过田纳西流域管理局法案（Tennessee Valley Authority Act），成立了一个负责沿田纳西河建造水电站的机构。


That effort benefited industry, agriculture, flood control, and conservation throughout the Tennessee Valley watershed, until then one of the country’s most disadvantaged regions.	这一做法令整个田纳西河流域——当时是美国最落后的地区之一——的工业、农业、洪水控制和环境保护都能受益。


Since then, governments worldwide have recognized the potential of water infrastructure to complement other economic and social policies, including those intended to improve health outcomes.	此后，全球政府认识到水基础设施在补充其他经济和社会政策方面的潜力，包括改善健康状况的政策。


It is no coincidence that one of the World Bank’s largest lending portfolios – $35 billion worth of investments – comprises water projects.	世界银行最大的贷款项目之一——价值350亿美元的投资——就包含水项目，这不是巧合。


But understanding the potential of complementarity is just the first step.	但认识到互补性的潜力只是第一步。


To maximize results, we must design a coherent strategy that takes full advantage of the dynamic, at the lowest possible cost.	为了实现成果最大化，我们必须制定一致性战略，以最低的代价充分利用这一动态。


The question is whether there is an optimal mix of environmental protection and direct health interventions on which policymakers can rely to maximize investment returns for both.	问题在于，环境保护和直接健康干预之间是否存在一个最优组合，可以令决策者同时实现两方面投资回报最大化。


A recent analysis suggests that, in rural areas, a 30% increase in upstream tree cover produces a 4% reduction in the probability of diarrheal disease in children – a result comparable to investing in an improved sanitation facility.	一项最新分析表明，在农村地区，上游森林覆盖增加30%能够让儿童腹泻病发生概率下降4%——效果与投资于改善卫生设施相当。


But, if that is true, we have yet to determine at what point reforestation becomes a better investment than improving sanitation, let alone increases the returns of other health interventions by the highest possible amount.	但果真如此的话，我们仍需要确定重造森林在什么情况下是比改善卫生设施更好的投资方案，更不用说尽力提高其他健康干预的回报了。


Another study found that an estimated 42% of the global malaria burden, including a half-million deaths annually, could be eliminated through policies focused on issues like land use, deforestation, water resource management, and settlement siting.	另一项研究发现，全球大约42%的疟疾负担——包括每年五十万的死亡病例——可以通过关注诸如土地使用、森林采伐、水资源管理和定居点选址等问题消除。


But the study didn’t cover the potential benefits of employing insecticide-treated nets as a tool for fighting malaria, ruling out a comparison of the two investments’ returns.	但该研究没有涉及使用抗虫蚊帐来治理疟疾的潜在收益，因而无法对两项研究的回报做出比较。


Worldwide, around 40% of cities’ source watersheds show high to moderate levels of degradation.	全球而言，大约40%的城市水源分水岭发生了一般到严重的恶化。


Sediment from agricultural and other sources increases the cost of water treatment, while loss of natural vegetation and land degradation can change water-flow patterns.	农业和其他源头的沉积物提高了治水成本，而天然植被损失和土地退化有可能改变水流。


All of this can adversely affect supply, thereby increasing the need to store water in containers – such as drums, tanks, and concrete jars – that serve as mosquito larval habitats.	所有这些都有可能对供给造成不良影响，从而增加用设备储水的需求——如水桶、水槽和混凝土水罐——而这些设备也是蚊子幼虫的栖身之所。


Can we show that ecological restoration of the watershed could do more than just insecticides or mosquito nets to support efforts to reduce malaria (and dengue) in cities?	我们能否证明，分水岭的生态重建的作用比抗虫蚊帐对城市疟疾（和登革热）的遏制作用更大？


In all of these cases, finding the best option requires knowing not just the relative contribution of different interventions, but understanding their complementarity.	在所有这些例子中，找到最佳选项要求不仅要了解不同干预措施的相对作用，还要了解它们的互补性。


In a world of limited resources, policymakers must prioritize their investments, including by differentiating the necessary from the desirable.	在一个资源有限的世界中，决策者必须给投资选择排定优先顺序，包括将必须的选项和可取的选项做出区分。


To that end, finding ways to identify and maximize complementarity is vital.	在这方面，找到办法识别和最大化互补性至关重要。


Some 2.1 billion people worldwide lack access to safe, readily available water at home, and more than twice as many – a whopping 4.5 billion – lack safely managed sanitation, severely undermining health outcomes and fueling river pollution.	全世界大约有21亿人难以获得安全、随时可用的家庭用水，更有两倍于此的人——令人咋舌的45亿人——缺少得到安全管理的卫生设施，这严重拖累了健康状况，加剧了河流污染。


With a growing share of the world’s population – including many of the same people – feeling the effects of environmental degradation and climate change firsthand, finding solutions that simultaneously advance environmental protection, water provision, and health could not be more important.	越来越多的世界人口——其中包括许多同一批人——直接感受到环境恶化和气候变化的影响，因此，找到能够同时加强环境保护、水供给和健康状况的方案至关重要。


Global health and conservation professionals must cooperate more closely to find those solutions – and convince policymakers to pursue them.	全球健康和环境保护界必须更加紧密地合寻找这样的方案——并说服决策者采纳。


Toward a Global Treaty on Plastic Waste	迈向全球塑料废品条约


BERLIN – If there are any geologists in millions of years, they will easily be able to pinpoint the start of the so-called Anthropocene – the geological age during which humans became the dominant influence on our planet’s environment.	柏林—几百万年后的地质学家要辨别所谓的人类纪——人类对地球环境产生主要影响的地质纪元——的开始将非常容易。


Wherever they look, they will find clear evidence of its onset, in the form of plastic waste.	目之所及就能找到明确的开始标志——塑料废品。


Plastic is a key material in the world economy, found in cars, mobile phones, toys, clothes, packaging, medical devices, and much more.	塑料是世界经济的关键材料之一，汽车、手机、玩具、服装、包装、医疗器械等众多东西上都有它。


Worldwide, 322 million metric tons of plastic were produced in 2015.	全球而言，2015年共生产了3. 22亿吨塑料。


And the figure keeps growing; by 2050, it could be four times higher.	这个数字一直在增长，到2050年，塑料产量可能增加三倍。


But plastic already is creating massive global environmental, economic, and social problems.	但塑料已经给全球环境、经济和社会造成了巨大的问题。


Despite requiring resources to produce, plastic is so cheap that it often is used for disposable – often single-use – products.	生产塑料需要消耗资源，但其成本非常低廉，因此常被用于制造一次性产品。


As a result, a huge amount of it ends up polluting the earth.	结果是巨量的这类产品污染着地球。


Plastic clogs cities’ sewer systems and increases the risk of flooding.	塑料阻塞城市下水道系统，增加洪涝风险。


Larger pieces can fill with rainwater, providing a breeding ground for disease-spreading mosquitos.	大块塑料可能被雨水注入，成为传播疾病的蚊子的温床。


Up to 13 million tons of plastic waste end up in the ocean each year; by 2050, there could be more plastic in there than fish.	每年都有高达1,300万吨塑料废品进入大海； 到2050年，大海中的塑料可能比鱼还要多。


The plastic that washes up on shores costs the tourism industry hundreds of millions of dollars every year.	被冲上海岸的塑料每年给旅游业带来数亿美元的损失。


Moreover, all that plastic poses a serious threat to wildlife.	此外，所有这些塑料都会给野生动物造成严重威胁。


Beyond the dead or dying seals, penguins, and turtles that had the bad fortune of becoming entangled in plastic rings or nets, biologists are finding dead whales and birds with stomachs stuffed with plastic debris.	除了因为不幸被塑料绳索或网络缠住而死去或垂死挣扎的海豹、企鹅和海龟，生物学家还在死去的鲸鱼和鸟类的胃里塞满了塑料碎片。


Plastic products may not be all that good for humans, either.	塑料制品对于人类也未必有百利而无一害。


While the plastics used, say, to package our foods are usually nontoxic, most plastics are laden with chemicals, from softeners (which can act as endocrine disruptors) to flame retardants (which can be carcinogenic or toxic in higher concentrations).	用于食品包装的塑料往往是五毒的，但大部分塑料含有各种化学物质，如软化剂（可以成为内分泌干扰素）和阻燃剂（高浓度时可能致癌或有毒）。


These chemicals can make it through the ocean and its food chain – and onto our plates.	这些化学物质可能通过海洋进入食物链，最终登上我们的餐桌。


Addressing the problem will not be easy; no single country or company, however determined, can do so on its own.	解决这一问题绝非易事； 单靠一国或一家公司，如何努力都不能单枪匹马解决这个问题。


Many actors – including the biggest plastic producers and polluters, zero-waste initiatives, research labs, and waste-picker cooperatives – will have to tackle the problem head-on.	必须有众多行动方——包括规模最大的塑料生产商和污染者、零废弃计划、研究实验室、废品回收机构等——合作应对这个问题。


The first step is to create a high-level forum to facilitate discussion among such stakeholders, with the goal of developing a cooperative strategy for reducing plastic pollution.	第一步是要建立一个高层次论坛方便这些相关利益方之间的讨论，以制定减少塑料污染的合作战略为目标。


Such a strategy should go beyond voluntary action plans and partnerships to focus on developing a legally binding international agreement, underpinned by a commitment from all governments to eliminate plastic pollution.	这一战略不能只局限于志愿行动和合作计划，而要注重于制定以各国政府消除塑料污染承诺为基础的、有法律约束力的国际协议。


Negotiations on such a treaty could be launched this year, at the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi in December.	这一条约的谈判可以在今年12月的内罗毕联合国环境大会上启动。


Scientists have already advanced concrete proposals for a plastic-pollution treaty.	科学家已经就塑料污染条约提出了具体的方案。


One of the authors of this article proposed a convention modeled after the Paris climate agreement: a binding overarching goal combined with voluntary national action plans and flexible measures to achieve them.	本文作者之一提出了一个效仿巴黎气候协定的公约：有约束力的首要目标与志愿性质的国家行动计划和灵活的实现手段相结合。


A research team from the University of Wollongong in Australia, taking inspiration from the Montreal Protocol, the treaty that safeguards the ozone layer, has suggested caps and bans on new plastic production.	澳大利亚卧龙岗大学（University of Wollongong）的研究团队以保护臭氧层的蒙特利尔议定书为灵感，建议对新塑料产品采取限额和禁止措施。


Some might ask whether we should embark on yet another journey down the long, winding, and tiresome road of global treaty negotiations.	有人也许会问我们是否应该开启又一段漫长、曲折又累人的全球谈判条约。


Can’t we engineer our way out of our plastic problem?	我们不能另辟蹊径解决塑料问题吗？


The short answer is, probably not.	简单的回答可能是“否”。


Biodegradable plastics, for example, make sense only if they decompose quickly enough to avoid harming wildlife.	比如，可生物降解塑料只有在降解速度快到足以能够避免伤及野生动物时才有意义。


Even promising discoveries like bacteria or moths that can dissolve or digest plastics can provide only auxiliary support.	甚至让人充满憧憬的发现，如能够分解或消化塑料的细菌和飞蛾，也只能充当辅助性的支持。


The only way truly to address the problem is to slash our plastic waste.	唯一能够真正解决这一问题的办法是砍掉塑料废品。


Technology might be able to help, offering more options for substitution and recycling; but, as the many zero-waste communities and cities around the world have shown, it is not necessary.	科技可能有所帮助，为替代和回收提供更多选项； 但是，全世界许多零废弃物社区和城市表明，这不是必须的。


For example, Capannori, a town of 46,700 inhabitants near Lucca in Tuscany, signed a zero-waste strategy in 2007.	比如，位于多斯加尼大区卢卡（Lucca）的一座46,700人的小镇卡帕诺里（Capannori）在2007年时签署了一项零废弃物战略。


A decade later, it has reduced its waste by 40%.	十年后，其废品数量减少了40%。


With 82% of municipal waste now separated at source, just 18% of residual waste ends up in landfills.	82%的市政废品从源头上进行隔离，只有18%的剩余废品进入垃圾填埋场。


Such experiences should inform and guide the national action plans that would form part of the treaty on plastics.	这样的经验应该为国家行动计划提供信息和指引，而国家行动计划将构成塑料条约的一部分。


The European Commission’s “circular economy package” may provide another example worth emulating.	欧盟委员会的“循环经济方案”提供了另一个值得效仿的例子。


Though it has not yet been implemented, its waste targets have the potential to save the European Union 190 million tons of CO2 emissions per year.	尽管该方案尚未开始实施，但其废品目标有望每年让欧盟节约1. 9亿吨二氧化碳排放。


That is the equivalent of annual emissions in the Netherlands.	这相当于荷兰的年排放量。


Of course, the transition to zero waste will require some investment.	当然，通往零废弃物之路要求投入一些投资。


Any international treaty on plastic must therefore include a funding mechanism, and the “polluter pays” principle is the right place to start.	因此，任何国际塑料条约都必须包括融资机制，“污染者付费”是正确的起点。


The global plastic industry, with annual revenues of about $750 billion, surely could find a few hundred million dollars to help clean up the mess it created.	全球塑料行业每年营收大约在7,500亿美元，拿出几亿美元用于收拾自己制造的残局理所应当。


A comprehensive, binding, and forward-looking global plastics treaty will not be easy to achieve.	全面的、有法律约束力的、着眼于未来的全球塑料条约绝不是很容易就能实现的。


It will take time and cost money, and it will inevitably include loopholes and have shortcomings.	它需要人们付出时间和金钱，并且难免会包括一些漏洞和缺陷。


It certainly will not solve the plastic pollution problem on its own.	它可能无法单枪匹马地解决塑料污染问题。


But it is a prerequisite for success.	但它是成功的先决条件。


Plastic pollution is a defining problem of the Anthropocene.	塑料污染是人类纪的显著特征。


It is, after all, a global scourge that is entirely of our making – and entirely within our power to solve as well.	毕竟，它是一个完全由我们造成的全球性灾难——而我们也完全有力量解决它。


Better Plastics for Healthier Oceans	改良的塑料让海洋更健康


LONDON – Plastics are among the most popular materials in use today.	伦敦—塑料是当今最常用的材料。


Given the material’s versatility, it is little wonder that some 320 million tons of it are used around the world each year.	塑料用途广泛，因此，毫不奇怪每年全世界都会用掉3. 2亿吨塑料。


Indeed, the recent holidays left many with a mountain of plastic products and packaging.	事实上，最几年，假期过后无不留下如山积的塑料制品和包装。


But plastics also pose a serious environmental threat.	但塑料也给环境带来了严重威胁。


If not disposed of properly, plastics can lie or float around for decades.	如果不进行适当的处理，塑料能够存在几十年之久。


In addition to being harmful to terrestrial and aquatic life, free-floating plastics in oceans can adsorb toxins and break up into micro-plastics, which then enter the food chain.	除了给陆生和水生生命造成伤害，在海洋里自由漂流的塑料还会积聚毒物，分解为塑料微粒，然后进入食物链。


It is this seeming immortality that has led governments to tax certain environmentally damaging plastic products or ban them altogether.	这种近乎不朽的性质让各国政府对有害塑料制品课以一定的税收，甚至一禁了之。


Many governments are also encouraging better waste management, and the reuse, redesign, and recycling of plastic products.	许多政府也鼓励改善废物管理，重新使用、设计和回收塑料制品。


This is prudent policymaking.	这是审慎决策。


But while taxes, bans, and waste-management policies will reduce the problem of plastic pollution, they will not solve it.	但税收、禁令和废物管理政策固然能减轻塑料污染问题，并不能解决这个问题。


And, because plastics are made from a byproduct of oil refining, a ban would have little or no impact on hydrocarbon extraction, either.	而由于塑料是石油炼化的副产品，禁令对于碳氢化合物开采也不会有什么影响。


What taxes and bans will do is deprive the poorest people of a useful and inexpensive material.	税收和禁令只能剥夺最贫困人群使用这一用途广泛、价格低廉的材料的权利。


The fact is that, despite the best efforts of well-intentioned lawmakers and nongovernmental organizations, thousands of tons of plastic waste are still entering the environment, particularly the oceans, every day.	事实上，尽管怀有良好初衷的立法者和非政府组织做出了很大的努力，但每天仍有成千上万吨塑料废物进入环境，特别是海洋。


Clearly, a better approach is needed.	显然，我们需要更好的方针。


Some governments and companies have been persuaded that “bio-plastics” – which are derived partly from biomass like cornstarch – are the solution.	有些政府和公司相信，“生物塑料”——部分源自玉米淀粉等生物质——是问题的答案。


But this argument is flawed: bio-plastics are very expensive and energy-intensive to produce, and still contain large amounts of material derived from oil.	但这一观点自有其缺陷：生物塑料非常昂贵，其生产具有能源密集特征，并且依然包含大量源自石油的材料。


Moreover, recycling bio-plastics requires that they be separated from ordinary plastic.	此外，回收生物塑料要求将它们与普通塑料分离。


Such polymers are tested to biodegrade, but only in the particular conditions found in industrial composting.	这些聚合物经过生物降解测试，但只在工业料堆的特殊环境下实现过。


In other words, while this technology might sound appealing, it will not solve the problem of plastic litter seeping into the environment.	换句话说，这项技术和也许听上去很有吸引力，但并不能解决塑料垃圾流入环境的问题。


The focus of the plastics industry has long been on a product’s functionality during its lifespan.	塑料行业的关注焦点长期集中在这种产品在整个生命周期中的功能性上。


This approach is no longer tenable.	这一方针早已不合时宜。


The world needs a new type of plastic – one that will perform well, but will also biodegrade much faster than the plastics we use today.	世界需要新型塑料——一种表现良好，但又比今天所使用的塑料远远更快地生物降解的塑料。


Enter oxo-biodegradable plastic.	氧代可生物降解塑料（oxo-biodegradable plastic，OBP）应运而生。


Unlike other plastics, including bio-plastics, OBP biodegrades anywhere in the environment, and can be recycled if collected during its useful life.	和包括生物塑料在内的其他塑料不同，OBP可以在任何环境中生物降解，也能在使用寿命内回收利用。


Ordinary plastic products can be upgraded to OBP with existing machinery at the time of manufacture and at little to no extra cost, using technology that the Oxo-biodegradable Plastics Association is working to explain.	普通塑料制品可以在生产过程中，利用现成设备，通过氧代可生物降解塑料协会（Oxo-biodegradable Plastics Association）致力于解释的技术升级为OBP，成本只是略微增加。


OBP is produced when a special additive is mixed with a normal polymer.	生产OBP只需要在普通聚合物中加入一种特殊的添加剂。


The additive (produced by a company where I am a director) dismantles the molecular structure of the polymer at the end of its useful life and enables natural decomposition in an open environment.	这种添加剂（由我担任董事的公司生产）会在聚合物使用寿命终点拆散其分子结构，使之能够在开放环境中自然分解。


And, when it comes to OBP, decomposition doesn’t mean breakdown into plastic fragments.	对于OBP，分解并不是解散称塑料碎片。


As Ignacy Jakubowicz, a professor at the Research Institutes of Sweden and one of the world’s leading experts on polymers, explains, when OBPs break down, the material changes entirely, with hydrocarbon molecules becoming oxygen-containing molecules that can be assimilated back into the environment.	瑞典研究院（Research Institutes of Sweden）教授、世界著名聚合物专家伊格纳西·贾库波维奇（Ignacy Jakubowicz）解释道，OBP解体时，物理性质会完全改变，碳氢化合物分子变为可以被环境吸收的含氧分子。


According to international standards (such as ASTM D6954), the use of OBP would demand proof of degradation and biodegradation, and confirmation that there are no heavy metals or eco-toxicity.	根据国际标准（如ASTM D6954），使用OBP需要降解和生物降解证明，并确认不含重金属或生态毒物。


As plastics change, the ways countries integrate them into their economies must change, too.	随着塑料发生改变，各国将塑料融入经济的方式也必须发生改变。


The good news is that, though the United States and Europe have been slow to embrace innovative solutions, others have been more open to them.	好消息是，尽管美国和欧洲在采纳创新方案方面动作缓慢，但其他国家表现出更加开放的态度。


For example, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have banned the import or manufacture of conventional plastics for a wide range of products, and both now require that plastic products be upgraded with OBP technology.	比如，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋均已禁止进口或制造用于多种产品的常规塑料，目前，两国均要求塑料制品用OBP技术进行升级。


They have not opted for “bio-based” plastics.	它们没有选择“基于生物”的塑料。


The world does not need new bans or taxes.	世界不需要新禁令和税收。


Rather, it needs people who work with plastic, and their governments, to become as adaptable as the material itself, taking advantage of technological advances to ensure that we can make the most of a cheap and versatile material, without subjecting the environment to its damaging impact.	相反，世界需要人们与塑料和政府合作，变得和这种材料一样具有适应性，利用技术进步确保我们能够让大部分人用上价格低廉、用途广泛的材料，同时又不会让环境蒙受其有害影响。


The Platform Economy	平台经济


WASHINGTON, DC – Hardly a day goes by without another article, conference, or research initiative devoted to the future of work.	华盛顿—几乎每一天，我们都会遇到以工作的未来为主题的文章、会议和研究项目。


The robots are coming, or they’re not coming as fast as we think; when they do come, they’ll put everyone out of work, or they’ll create as many jobs as they destroy.	机器人时代正在来临，或者它来得不如我们想的那么快； 当它真的来临时，机器人把所有人都失业，或者它们会创造和毁掉的一样多的岗位。


Thus the conversation goes.	诸如此类的对话。


But what if, instead of trying to predict the future, we look at realities that exist today for billions of people?	但如果我们不去试图预测未来，而是看一看今天存在于几十亿人眼前的现实会发生什么？


Some 80% of the global population lives in emerging economies – defined by informal markets and fluid employment structures.	大约80%的全球人口生活在新兴经济体——这些经济体的特征是非正式市场和高流动性的就业结构。


The SHIFT: Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology invited groups in five cities across the United States to imagine four scenarios along two axes of change – more or less work, and more jobs or more tasks.	变化：工作、工人和技术委员会（SHIFT: Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology）邀请了美国五个城市的小组，沿着两个变化方向——工作变多或变少，岗位变多还是任务变多——构想了四种情景。


Participants were divided as to the amount of future work, but almost all foresaw the continuing disaggregation of jobs into tasks in both low- and high-end work, from driving to lawyering.	参与者在未来工作数量上有分歧，但几乎所有人都预测，岗位将不断地分解为低端和高端工作（比如当驾驶员和当律师）中的任务。


That is the reality in emerging economies today.	这就是当今新兴经济体中的现实。


Examining work patterns in these diverse countries yields three key lessons.	考察这些多样化的国家的工作模式带来了三大关键教训。


First, people layer multiple work streams and derive income from more than one source.	首先，人们可分成多种工作流层次，他们的收入来源往往不单一。


Second, platform economies are emerging rapidly and build on traditional networks.	其次，平台经济正在快速崛起并以传统网络为基础。


Finally, these work patterns often go hand in hand with dramatic income inequality.	最后，这些工作模式的出现常常伴随剧烈的收入不平等。


Flexibility and uncertainty define informal markets in developing countries.	灵活性和不确定性是发展中国家非正式市场的特征。


Those lucky men and women who have formal jobs (less than 40%) often have “side hustles” through which they sell their time, expertise, network, or ideas to others in an effort to hedge against an uncertain labor market.	那些拥有正式工作的幸运儿（不到40%）常常由“副业”用时间、专业知识、网络或点子赚取外快，以对冲不确定的劳动力市场。


A Nigerian saying – “you have a 9 to 5, a 5 to 9 and a weekend job” – aptly describes the environment of layered work.	尼日利亚有句俗话，“你有一个朝九晚五的工作，一个晚五晚九的工作，和一个周末开工的工作”——很形象地描述了分层工作的环境。


The same pattern is starting to emerge in developed countries.	同样的模式也开始在发达国家出现。


A report by the JPMorgan-Chase Institute concludes that platform jobs are largely a secondary source of income, used to offset dips in regular income.	JP摩根大通研究所（JPMorgan-Chase Institute）的一份报告指出，平台岗位主要是第二收入源，被用来抵消常规收入的下降。


A key difference, however, is that in emerging economies flexible networks of individuals or small businesses take the place of formal employers.	但一个关键性区别在于，在新兴经济体，灵活的个人或小企业网络占据了正式雇主的位置。


Kenya’s informal sector – called in Kiswahili the Jua Kali (“hot sun”) – is the country’s main job creator.	肯尼亚的非正式部门——斯瓦西里语称为“朱阿卡丽”（“火热的太阳”）——是肯尼亚最主要的就业岗位创造者。


The 2017 Economic Survey in Kenya showed that the Jua Kali generated 747,300 jobs the previous year, whereas the formal sector added only 85,600.	2017年肯尼亚经济调查表明，朱阿卡丽在此前一年中创造了747,300个工作岗位，而正式部门只创造了85,600个工作岗位。


The Jua Kali comprises sector-based associations among workers and artisans that harken back to medieval guilds.	朱阿卡丽由各种属于工人和技工的类似于中世纪行会的行业协会组成。


The associations – of carpenters, mechanics, plumbers, and so on – enable pooled savings, provide opportunities to upgrade skills, and create a form of market regulation.	这些行业协会——比如木匠协会、机械工协会、水管工协会等——将储蓄汇集起来，提供提高技能的机会，并形成了一种市场监管形式。


As technology has been added, many of the associations are going online to match supply and demand in the informal labor market more effectively.	随着技术的提高，许多协会正在往线上发展，以更有效地匹配非正式劳动力市场的供给和需求。


Go-Jek in Indonesia (named as a pun on ojek, a motorcycle taxi) is a $2.5 billion company that delivers everything from food to hairdressers by motorbike through an app.	印度尼西亚的Go-Jek（名字取自一种叫ojek的摩的的谐音）是一家25亿美元规模的公司，通过手机应用，用摩托车递送从食品到美发师的各种东西。


The company, with more than 200,000 drivers on the platform, boosts Indonesians’ productivity in the face of snarling traffic.	该公司有200,000多位平台司机，提高了拥堵不堪的印度尼西亚的生产率。


The market for low-cost legal services in Accra, Ghana, provides another interesting example.	加纳阿克拉的廉价法律服务市场则是另一个有趣的例子。


Journalist Joseph Warungu describes a “narrow alleyway at the back of the court buildings” teeming with notaries, commissioners for oaths, letter writers, and lawyers offering services from witness statements to contracts, all “processed efficiently and at a pocket-friendly rate.”	记者约瑟夫·瓦伦古（Joseph Warungu）描述了一条“法院大楼背后的窄巷”，那里充斥着公证员、宣誓监督员和律师，提供从目击证词到合同的各种服务，所有项目都能做到“高效处理，价格优惠”。


That alleyway is a platform, bringing together multiple sellers of separate legal services together with buyers, in contrast to a traditional law firm, which requires clients to purchase multiple services from the same source.	这条小巷就是一个平台，集结了不同法律服务的众多卖家和买家，这和传统律师事务所不同，后者需要当事人从同一家律所购买多种服务。


It simply needs to migrate online.	它绝对需要迁移到线上。


Developed economies are only beginning to catch up.	发达经济体才刚刚开始赶超。


Bliss Lawyers has “a bench” of more than 15,000 lawyers across the US who are paid over $200 an hour for “work on an engagement basis for in-house legal department and law firm clients.”	幸福律师公司（Bliss Lawyers）有一套遍布全美国的15,000多名律师的“班子”，他们每小时收费超过200美元，“为组织内部法务部门和律师事务所当事人提供基于契约的工作”。


More broadly, the Business Talent Group provides “in-demand business talent on-demand,” across a wide range of professional services.	更广泛地看，商业人才集团（Business Talent Group）“按需提供热门商业人才”，涵盖了范围非常广泛的各种专业服务。


Emerging markets also offer a cautionary tale concerning the downside of the on-demand economy.	新兴市场还为发达国家提供了按需经济的副作用的警示。


They have some of the highest levels of inequality in the world.	它们的不平等水平有的位列世界最高行列。


The world’s 50 most unequal economies are in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, with South Africa taking the prize for the highest income inequality.	世界50个最不平等的经济体分布在撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲，而收入不平等性最高“奖”则归南非所有。


Informal markets, lack of access to finance, and poor educational opportunities in these countries continue to trap most people in relative poverty.	这些国家市场不正式，缺乏融资途径，并且教育机会不足，大部分人一直处于相对贫困状态。


Gig economy platforms that provide small jobs without benefits or career progression can supplement income and buffer other employment, but they do not add up to the security and advancement opportunities of a formal job.	提供没有福利和职业发展的小就业岗位的零工经济平台能够起到补充收入、缓冲其他就业的作用，但不能提供正式就业岗位所带来的安全感和进步机会。


Indeed, most emerging-market workers turn to the gig economy not out of a desire for flexibility or to follow their passions, but simply to make ends meet.	事实上，大部分新兴市场工人之所以转向零工经济，不是出于渴望灵活性或是因为激情所在，而纯粹是为了收支平衡。


Nonetheless, informal markets in developing countries provide a vast field for experimentation to transform a patchwork of jobs into a steady upward path for workers.	尽管如此，发展中国家的非正式市场仍然提供了一个巨大的让零工岗位转变为工人的稳步提升之路的试验场。


Tailoring education to allow workers to get the on-demand skills they need when they need them, and creating verifiable work histories through blockchain, are two ways to help gig economy workers find suitable opportunities more efficiently and capture more value from selling their labor.	改革教育以使工人在他们需要时获得他们需要的有需求的技能，以及通过区块链构建可证实的工作历史，是帮助零工经济工人更有效地找到合适的机会、用他们的劳动捕获更大价值的两个方法。


While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful.	欧洲、北美和亚洲的发达国家正在快速老龄化，而新兴经济体要年轻得多。


By 2040, one in four workers worldwide will be African.	到2040年，全世界四分之一工人将是非洲人。


They are products of dynamic informal markets, and that should ease their absorption into a tech-enabled gig economy.	他们是活跃的非正式市场的产物，而这应该使他们跟容易被技术推动的零工经济吸收。


Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace.	尼日利亚、印度尼西亚和越南年轻人将以越来越快的速度影响全球工作趋势。


We can learn from them today to prepare for tomorrow.	我们可以从他们今天的状况中学习，为明天做好准备。


Stopping the Child Killers	阻止儿童杀手


SEATTLE – In far too many places around the world, the biggest child killers are caused by the smallest of organisms – the viruses, bacteria, and single cell parasites that cause diarrhea and pneumonia.	西雅图—在世界诸多地区，最大的儿童杀手往往是最小的有机体——导致腹泻和肺炎的病毒、细菌、单细胞寄生虫。


Given the monumental advances that have been made in public health – both diseases are preventable and curable – this is inexcusable.	从公共卫生方面的巨大进步看——不管是从可预防疾病还是可治疗疾病——这都是无法饶恕的罪过。


It is imperative that all children, especially those most at risk, have access to life-saving health-care services.	必须尽快让所有儿童，特别是高危儿童，获得救命医疗服务。


According to UNICEF, pneumonia and diarrhea kill a full one-quarter of the 5.9 million children under the age of five who die each year.	据联合国儿童基金会的数据，每年有590万不到5岁的儿童夭折，其中整整四分之一死于肺炎和腹泻。


And a new report from the International Vaccine Access Center shows that nearly three-quarters of pneumonia and diarrhea deaths occur in just 15 countries.	国际疫苗接踵中心（International Vaccine Access Center）的一份最新报告显示，近四分之三的肺炎和腹泻死亡病例发生在15个国家。


In these countries and elsewhere, such deaths are most prevalent within the poorest and most marginalized communities.	在这些国家和其他地区，这些死亡病例在最贫困、最边缘化社区最为普遍。


While the figures do reflect progress in recent decades, the tragedy is that the improvement could have been much larger, had governments not consistently succumbed to the temptation to focus on only one or two interventions at a time.	数据确实反映出近几十年来所取得的进步，但悲剧是，改善情况本可以大得多，只要政府没有一直只同时注重一到两种干预方法。


To end child deaths from these diseases once and for all, governments must commit to scaling up simultaneously the full suite of interventions identified by the World Health Organization and UNICEF two years ago, in their integrated Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhea.	要让儿童不再因这些疾病而死去，政府必须致力于同时扩大世界卫生组织和联合国儿童基金会两年前在其综合性的全球肺炎和腹泻行动计划（Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhea）中提出的全套干预手段。


One critical – and extraordinarily cost-effective – intervention is the promotion of exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months of life, a practice that helps supports the development of a baby’s immune system.	一项性价比极高的关键性干预是推广出生后六个月内纯母乳喂养，这样有助于婴儿免疫系统发育。


As it stands, in 12 of the 15 countries suffering the most child deaths from pneumonia and diarrhea, exclusive breastfeeding rates fall short of the WHO’s 50% global target.	目前，在15个儿童因肺炎和腹泻夭折情况最严重的国家中，有12个母乳喂养率不足世卫组织50%的全球目标。


Furthermore, governments must ensure that all children have access to life-saving vaccines.	此外，政府必须确保所有儿童都获得救命疫苗。


Though a vaccine for pneumococcal infection – a leading cause of pneumonia – was developed at the turn of the century, it is not included in routine immunization programs in five of the countries where pneumonia is most pervasive (Chad, China, India, Indonesia, and Somalia).	尽管肺炎球菌（肺炎的主要致病因素）感染疫苗在世界之交已经开发出来，但肺炎最普遍的五个国家（乍得、中国、印度、印尼和索马里）仍未将其纳入基本免疫计划。


This must change.	这必须做出改变。


As for diarrhea, a comprehensive global study found that moderate to severe cases are caused primarily by rotavirus, making that virus the leading killer of infants and toddlers worldwide.	至于腹泻问题，一份全面的全球研究发现，温和和严重病例主要因轮状病毒引起，因此病毒是全球婴幼儿首要杀手。


But, though rotavirus vaccines have been rolled out in 79 countries – a significant accomplishment – a staggering 74% of the world’s infants remain unlikely to be inoculated this year.	但是，尽管轮状病毒疫苗已在79个国家铺开——这是个了不起的成就——但全世界仍有高达74%的儿童无法在今年获得接种。


The vaccine’s introduction for Indian infants next year will be a major milestone.	明年，印度婴儿将能够获得该疫苗，这将是一个重要里程碑。


But other Asian countries, such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, have not yet decided whether to do the same.	但孟加拉国和巴基斯坦等其他亚洲国家仍未决定是否跟进。


When children contract diarrhea, they need access to the right treatments.	当儿童患上腹泻时，他们需要正确的治疗。


Oral rehydration salts and zinc supplements not only drastically reduce mortality rates; they are also inexpensive to scale up.	口服生理锌盐水不但能够大幅降低致死率，并且十分廉价，容易推广。


In treating pneumonia, access to antibiotics is essential.	在治疗肺炎方面，获得抗生素至关重要。


The common denominator among these interventions is the need for sufficient well-trained health workers serving impoverished communities.	这些干预的共同之处是需要足够的经良好训练的卫生工作者为落后社区服务。


Indeed, health workers are needed to guide mothers as they attempt to breastfeed – which is not always as easy as it sounds – and reinforce the importance of the practice.	事实上，我们需要卫生工作者指导母亲如何哺乳——哺乳并不像听上去那么容易——和巩固哺乳的重要性。


They are needed to deliver vaccines and treatments. And they are needed to dispense advice to families on how to protect their children from death by pneumonia, diarrhea, and other diseases, including through information about when to seek care if they do.	我们需要卫生工作者指导家庭如何保护儿童避免因肺炎、腹泻和其他疾病而夭折，其手段包括普及需要时如何找到看护服务的信息。


Governments have a pivotal role to play in ensuring that the poorest and most marginalized communities have access to critical health services, by providing the right training, tools, supervision, funding, and logistical support for health workers.	在通过为卫生工作者提供正确的训练、工具、监督、资金和物流支持来确保最贫困、最边缘化社区能够获得关键卫生服务方面，政府起着至关重要的作用。


This – together with other critical interventions, such as the provision of clean water and effective sanitation facilities – will require a strong and sustained political commitment, one that civil society and the media, by keeping their governments accountable, can help to secure.	这——以及其他关键干预措施，如提供清洁水和高效卫生设施——需要强大的持续政治承诺，公民社会和媒体可以通过问责政府助一臂之力。


There are still far too many children around the world who do not have access to the essential health services they need to survive and thrive.	放眼全球，仍有太多的儿童无法获得生存和发展所必须的卫生服务。


Accelerating the discussion of proven, low-cost methods to prevent, treat, and cure pneumonia and diarrhea is critical to give all children the chance they deserve.	加快讨论经过证明的低成本预防、治疗和治愈肺炎和腹泻的方法对于让所有儿童获得他们理应获得机会至关重要。


Where you live should not determine whether you live.	生活在哪里不应该成为生活得怎样的决定因素。


Russiagate in Poland	波兰的通俄门


WARSAW – While many Americans remain transfixed by investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 US presidential election, Poles are learning that their country may have served as a testing ground for Russia’s efforts.	华沙——虽然俄国人干预2016年美国总统大选仍令许多美国人目瞪口呆，但波兰人正逐渐意识到其国家可能已成为俄罗斯培植政治势力的试验场。


Russia has long sought to install pro-Kremlin politicians at the highest levels of power in Central and Eastern Europe.	长期以来，俄罗斯一直寻求在中东欧地区建立最高权力级别的亲克里姆林宫政府。


And there is now evidence suggesting that Russian military intelligence agencies are wielding influence in Poland’s Ministry of Defense.	而且现在有证据表明，俄罗斯军事情报机构有能力对波兰国防部施加影响。


In 2014, when Poland was governed by Civic Platform (PO), it was the only country in Europe that had successfully staved off recession in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.	2014年，公民纲领党（PO）执政期间，波兰是2008年金融危机后唯一一个成功摆脱衰退的国家。


During the PO government’s eight years in power, Poland’s GDP grew by almost 25%, while unemployment and the budget deficit fell by almost half.	在公民纲领党八年执政期间，波兰的国内生产总值增长近25%，而失业率和预算赤字几乎下降了一半左右。


Despite this strong performance, Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice (PiS) party resoundingly defeated PO in Poland’s 2015 parliamentary elections.	尽管取得了如此出色的表现，雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基的法律与正义党仍然在波兰2015年议会选举中成功击败了公民纲领党。


To understand why, we need to go back to 2013, when Marek Falenta, a shady Polish businessman, hired two waiters to record private conversations in a restaurant frequented by politicians.	要理解个中原因，我们需要回到2013年，当时一位臭名昭著的波兰商人马立克·法兰塔聘请了两名服务员，在政界人士经常光顾的一家餐馆录制私人对话。


These secret recordings fueled a scandal that forced almost all of the PO’s leadership out of government.	这些秘密录音引发了一场丑闻，迫使几乎所有公民纲领党的领导人物退出政府。


Among those who resigned was Marshal of the Sejm Radek Sikorski, the co-author of a European Union initiative designed to strengthen the resilience of certain Eastern European and Eurasian countries to Russian pressure.	辞职者中包括众议院议长西科尔斯基，他和别人合著了欧盟计划，目的是使某些东欧和欧亚国家在面对俄罗斯时更为抗压。


PiS politicians also frequented venues where recordings were made, and yet none of their conversations were leaked.	法律与正义党的政客们也经常光顾被录音的场所，但他们的谈话内容却一次都没有遭到泄露。


Falenta, it turned out, had owed $26 million to a Russian firm, Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Kompaniya, with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.	事实证明法兰塔欠库兹巴斯燃料公司2，600万美元，这家俄国企业与俄罗斯总统普京关系十分密切。


And while he was eventually convicted for his involvement in the eavesdropping plot, no one else involved in orchestrating the leaks has been identified.	虽然法兰塔最终被裁定参与策划窃听阴谋，但并没有其他参与策划录音泄露事件的人遭到曝光。


At the same time, similar scandals removed liberal politicians from power in Hungary and Slovakia, which are now ruled by the most pro-Russian governments in the EU.	与此同时，类似的丑闻也导致匈牙利和斯洛伐克自由政治家下台，上述两国现在均由欧盟内部最为亲俄的政府实际掌控。


When the PiS assumed power in 2015, Poland’s foreign and defense policies took a bizarre turn, starting with the appointment of Antoni Macierewicz as Minister of Defense.	2015年法律与正义党上台时，波兰的外交和国防政策出现了某种奇怪的变化，首先是任命安东尼·麦克瑞维奇担任国防部长。


Macierewicz, the only PiS politician who acts independently – and sometimes in defiance – of Kaczyński, was also the man behind Poland’s botched 1992 lustration, or political screening, process, which delayed the country’s de-communization efforts.	麦克瑞维奇是唯一一位独立行事的法律与正义党政客——而且有时敢于违逆卡钦斯基的意愿，他同时是1992年波兰失败的清洗运动或政治甄别运动背后的策划者。 那项运动推迟了波兰国内的去共产化工作。


Many still remember the notorious “Macierewicz List” from that period, which tarred innocent people as communist-era secret-police collaborators.	许多人仍然对那个时期臭名昭著的“麦克瑞维奇名单”记忆犹新，该名单将无辜民众污蔑为共产主义时代秘密警察的合作者。


Under a later government, Macierewicz published a report on Poland’s counterintelligence agency, the Military Information Services, which outed undercover Polish intelligence agents and led to the disbanding of the agency.	在其后某任政府中，麦克瑞维奇曾发布了一份关于波兰反情报机构军事信息服务部门的报告暴露卧底的波兰情报人员，并最终导致解散情报机构。


While in power, the PiS has started disputes with Poland’s most important European allies: Germany, France, and the European Commission.	在执政期间，法律与正义党与波兰最重要的欧洲盟国（法、德）和欧盟委员会开启争端。


In November 2015, it ordered a raid on a NATO-affiliated counterintelligence center that had been established to track Russian intelligence efforts.	2015年11月，该党下令突袭一家北约下属的反间谍中心，这家反间谍中心负责跟踪俄罗斯的情报活动。


Then, Macierewicz’s defense ministry unexpectedly canceled a contract with France for the purchase of 50 Caracal helicopters, leaving Poland without a crucial military capacity to this day.	而后，麦克瑞维奇领导的国防部出人意料地取消了与法国签订的购买50架狞猫直升机的合同，导致波兰迄今为止都未能掌握这项关键的军事技术。


And earlier this year, Macierewicz fired 90% of the military’s General Staff and 82% of its General Command, and formed a new military force whose leadership consists of pro-Kremlin activists and NATO critics.	今年初，麦克瑞维奇解雇了90%的军队参谋人员以及82%的军队指挥人员，组建了一支由亲克里姆林分子和北约批评人士组成的新的军事力量。


Recently, the Polish journalists Tomasz Piątek of Gazeta Wyborcza and Radosław Gruca of Fakt, along with the organization Miasto Jest Nasze (the City Is Ours), have uncovered highly suspicious associations from Macierewicz’s past.	不久前，波兰《选举报》记者托马斯·皮昂泰克和《时务报》记者格鲁卡与一家名叫“我们的城市”（Miasto Jest Nasze）的机构合作，从麦克瑞维奇过去的关系中发现了高度可疑之处。


For example, one of Macierewicz’s closest business and political associates after 1989 was Robert Lusnia, later found to have served as an informant both during and after the communist period, his recent handlers most likely being agents of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) operating in Poland.	例如，1989年后，麦克瑞维奇最亲密的商业及政治合伙人是罗伯特·卢西亚，后来发现此人在共产主义时期及其后都曾担任过线人，他最近一任上线是俄罗斯驻波兰主要情报部门（GRU）特工的可能性最大。


Piątek has also delineated “numerous and long-term connections between Macierewicz and Russian gangster and financier Semion Mogilevich and the Russian GRU.”	皮昂泰克还曾描述过“麦克瑞维奇与俄罗斯流氓黑社会头子及金融家塞米昂·莫吉列维奇和俄罗斯主要情报部门的诸多长期关系。


According to the American investigative journalist Robert I. Friedman, Mogilevich is “the most dangerous mobster in the world,” and is widely known to work closely with the GRU.	”据美国调查记者罗伯特·弗里德曼介绍，莫吉列维奇是“全世界最危险的暴徒，”而且众所周知地与俄罗斯主要情报部门展开密切合作。


Macierewicz’s closest ally in the United States is the US senator-cum-lobbyist Alfonse D’Amato, who supported Trump during the 2016 campaign.	麦克瑞维奇在美国最为亲密的盟友是美国参议员兼说客阿方索·德·阿马托，阿马托曾在2016年总统大选中支持特朗普。


D’Amato’s assistant, Edmund Janniger, served as an adviser to Macierewicz until 2015.	阿马托的助手埃德蒙·詹宁格到2015年一直担任麦克瑞维奇的顾问职务。


The American press has reported that both D’Amato and Mogilevich have past ties to The Bank of New York Mellon, which extended loans to D’Amato’s Senate campaign in the early 1980s, and allegedly laundered money for Russian organized crime groups in the 1990s.	据美媒报道阿马托和莫吉列维奇两人都曾与纽约梅隆银行有过联系，而这家银行曾在20世纪80年代初为阿马托的参议院竞选活动提供贷款，并据称参与了20世纪90年代俄罗斯有组织犯罪集团的洗钱活动。


Today, D’Amato’s firm, Park Strategies, lobbies for the interests of US arms manufacturers Aerojet Rocketdyne and United Technologies at the Kremlin, and it has recently provided services for Poland’s Ministry of Defense under Macierewicz.	今天，阿马托的公司帕克策略向克里姆林宫游说维护美国武器制造商洛克达因公司和联合技术公司的利益，它不久前曾向由麦克瑞维奇领导的波兰国防部提供服务。


Indeed, Macierewicz hired Park Strategies to help with the 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw – a major event for arms makers.	事实上，麦克瑞维奇雇用帕克策略协助筹备2016年北约华沙峰会——这是一次武器制造商的盛会。


And before Macierewicz canceled the arms contract with France, he met with D’Amato, a lobbyist also for the US arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin.	而且在麦克瑞维奇取消与法国的武器合同之前，他曾与同时担任美国武器制造商洛克希德·马丁公司说客的阿马托会晤过。


Afterwards, Macierewicz began calling for the purchase of Lockheed’s Black Hawk helicopters.	其后不久，麦克瑞维奇就开始呼吁签订洛克希德·马丁公司黑鹰直升机的采购合同。


In response to these many revelations, Macierewicz decided not to file a civil suit against Piątek, which would have required him to prove the journalist’s findings incorrect.	面对如此之多的爆料，麦克瑞维奇决定不对皮昂泰克提起民事诉讼，因为民事诉讼将由他负责就这位记者的不实报道展开举证工作。


Instead, he has called for Piątek to be criminally prosecuted for threatening a government official.	相反，他已经呼吁以威胁政府官员为由对皮昂泰克提起刑事诉讼。


But Macierewicz is not the only PiS official under a Russian cloud.	但麦克瑞维奇并不是被俄罗斯阴云笼罩的唯一一名法律与正义党官员。


The Guardian recently reported that, “Bartosz Kownacki, a key lieutenant of defense minister Antoni Macierewicz, was a member of a group of Polish international observers during Russia’s 2012 election.”	据《卫报》近日报道，“国防部长麦克瑞维奇的重要副手考纳茨基曾在2012俄大选期间任波兰国际观察员职务。


Kownacki was accompanied on that trip, according to the report, by “Mateusz Piskorski, the founder of a Polish think tank, the European Centre for Geopolitical Analysis (ECGA) who is now in detention in Poland, facing charges of spying for Moscow.”	”报道透露考纳茨基当时的俄国之行曾由波兰智囊团欧洲地缘政治分析中心（ECGA）创始人皮斯科斯基陪同，皮斯科斯基目前在波兰遭到拘禁，即将面临为莫斯科开展谍报工作的指控。 ”


It is in Putin’s interest to sow discord in the West, especially within the EU, and no one is furthering his aim of EU disintegration more effectively than the current Polish government.	在欧洲内部，尤其是欧盟内部搬弄是非符合普京的利益，最有效推动其解体欧盟目标的莫过于波兰现政府。


Given its strong economy, Poland could be a powerful ally to France and Germany in a post-Brexit Europe that is working toward deeper integration.	因为国内经济保持强势，波兰本应成为后英国脱欧时期法德推动进一步融合的最为有力的盟友。


But France and Germany cannot count on Poland so long as Kaczyński and Macierewicz are in charge, behaving toward the EU in ways that benefit only Russia.	但只要卡钦斯基和麦克瑞维奇继续执政，法德两国就无法依靠波兰政府。 它在欧盟内部挑起纷争，其所作所为只对俄罗斯有好处。


Why Polish Judicial Independence Matters	波兰司法独立的重要性


BUDAPEST – After some delay, Poland’s government, controlled by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, has finally responded to concerns raised by the European Commission about its legislative attack on judicial independence.	布达佩斯—在经过一段时间的推迟后，由法律和正义党（PiS）控制波兰政府终于就欧盟委员会提出的关于其对司法独立所发动的立法攻势的关切做出了回应。


But, according to Frans Timmermans, the Commission’s first vice president, Poland is still refusing to cooperate, and has not announced “any concrete measures to address the issues raised.”	但是，据欧盟委员会第一副主席弗朗斯·提默曼斯（Frans Timmermans）透露，波兰仍然拒绝合作，也没有说要“采取任何实质措施解决所提出的问题。 ”


It remains to be seen if the European Union will use the political and economic tools at its disposal to sanction the Polish government.	欧盟是否会使用可用的政治和经济工具制裁波兰政府还有待观察。


We believe it should – resolutely and swiftly.	我们认为应该这样做——并且要果断、迅速。


The PiS’s efforts to bring Poland’s courts under political control violate the EU’s fundamental democratic values and threaten its governance of the single market.	PiS用政治控制波兰法院的企图违反了欧盟的基本民主价值观，也威胁到其单一市场的治理。


At this point, continued inaction on the EU’s part could threaten the project of economic integration altogether.	目前，欧盟方面继续不作为可能会威胁到经济一体化大计。


Market integration among economies at different levels of development relies primarily on regulatory standardization.	不同发展水平的经济体之间的市场一体化主要依靠监管标准化。


The single market works because an entrepreneur in the Netherlands and an entrepreneur in Poland can both expect to be governed by the same rules, regardless of whether they are selling goods or investing in Italy, Hungary, France, or Bulgaria.	单一市场能够运转，是因为荷兰和波兰的企业家都认为会受到同一套规则的管理，不管他们是在意大利、匈牙利、法国还会保加利亚销售产品或投资。


These agreed rules are enforced not just by EU courts and bureaucracies, but also by national courts in the member states.	这些共同的规则不仅由欧盟法院和官僚机构执行，也由成员国法院执行。


The EU’s framework for enforcing common rules, however, does not automatically confer the same benefits to each member state.	但是，执行共同规则的欧盟框架并不天然授予每个成员国同样的收益。


When market integration was pursued in earnest in the 1980s, it was agreed that member states with less developed economies would be entitled to transfers until they had caught up with the bloc’s average level of development.	20世纪80年代，市场一体化如火如荼的时候，欧盟一致同意，经济较不发达的成员国，在它们赶上欧盟平均发展水平之前，可以获得转移支付。


Today, such transfers represent about a third of the EU budget, and 2-5% of GDP in the recipient economies.	如今，这些转移支付占了欧盟预算的三分之一左右，相当于接受转移支付经济体GDP的2—5%。


This arrangement was meant to reduce disparities among EU members to the point that transfers would no longer be needed.	这一安排是为了降低欧盟成员国之间的差异，从而不再需要转移支付。


But it always had a crucial weakness: the EU has only limited authority to control the domestic institutions in charge of ensuring that recipient countries spend the funds appropriately.	但它永远存在一个关键性缺陷：欧盟控制负责确保接受转移国家合理使用转移支付的国家机构的权威非常有限。


And a country’s judiciary is chief among those institutions.	而一国的司法机关是这些机构中最重要的一个。


We have researched how evolving state capacities affect economic development in 17 Central and Eastern European countries, and we found that autonomous judiciaries are of central importance.	我们研究了17个中欧和东欧国家的国家能力的演化如何影响经济发展，结果发现，独立司法具有核心重要性。


Capable, independent courts are the prime movers behind the development of a professional state bureaucracy.	胜任的独立法院是推动专业国家官僚体系发展的主要力量。


Without judicial oversight, there is no guarantee that supervisory agencies will monitor and enforce the rules of market competition effectively and impartially.	没有司法监督，就无法保证监督机构会有效公正地监控和执行市场竞争规则。


We have also found that increased judicial autonomy boosts economic development in countries even before they have joined the EU.	我们还发现，加强司法独立在国家加入欧盟之前便已经在刺激经济发展。


When a country’s courts become more reliable and predictable, its exports tend to increase and become more technologically complex soon thereafter.	当一国的法院更加可靠、更加可预测，其不久以后出口就会开始增加，技术负责度也开始上升。


By the same token, judiciaries can hinder economic development if they are not independent or reliable.	同样地，如果司法不独立或不可靠，就会阻碍经济发展。


When domestic firms cannot count on courts to issue fair and consistent rulings, they will conclude that success depends less on entrepreneurship than on cronyism or loyalty to market incumbents.	如果本国企业无法依靠法院作出公正一致的判决，就会认为成功不取决于企业家精神，而取决于裙带主义或对市场先入者的忠诚（loyalty）。


Accordingly, they will invest less, and shy away from innovation.	因此，他们会减少投资，回避创新。


Hungary’s recent experience demonstrates that if incumbents do not fear judicial oversight, they will engage in predatory behavior toward weaker market participants, thereby capturing larger segments of the economy.	匈牙利的最近经验表明，如果先入者不害怕司法监督，就会对较弱的市场参与者做出侵略性行为，从而捕获更大经济份额。


This ultimately results in declining public revenue, which forces the government to look for other ways to finance basic public goods.	这最终会导致公共收入下降，迫使政府寻找其他方式为基本公共品筹资。


To keep the economy afloat and remain in power, the government will become all the more reliant on EU transfers.	为了保持经济增长和权力，政府就更加依赖于欧盟转移支付。


The Polish and Hungarian governments have turned the worst nightmare of the single market’s founding fathers into a reality.	波兰和匈牙利政府将单一市场元勋们最大的噩梦变成了现实。


In both countries, the institutions that could help domestic actors to benefit from market integration are being undermined – to say nothing of citizens’ rights and opportunities – even as the illiberal regimes causing this erosion continue to receive EU funds.	在这两个国家，能够帮助本国行为人得益于市场一体化的机构被削弱——更不用说公民权利和机会了——但导致这一情况的反自由体制仍然能够获得欧盟资金。


This state of affairs has exposed the limits of EU-level control over how the bloc’s money is spent within member states; and it shows that the development of domestic institutions can be reversed all too easily.	这种状态暴露了欧盟层面控制欧盟资金在成员国内部使用情况的局限性； 也表明国家机构的发展很容易就会开倒车。


When the single market was created, many assumed that it would provide ample incentives for domestic firms and policymakers to develop sound national-level institutions, in order to capitalize on lucrative new opportunities.	单一市场成立时，许多人认为它将为本国企业和决策者提供足够的激励发展可靠的国家层面的机构，以便抓住诱人的新机会。


But that assumption’s flaws have now been laid bare.	但这一假设的缺陷现在已经尽显无疑。


The tragedy in Greece after the financial crisis a decade ago showed that incumbents will not necessarily take it upon themselves to develop strong institutions.	十年前，金融危机后的希腊悲剧表明，先入者未必能够自动发展出强大的机构。


And in Poland and Hungary today, we are learning that illiberal governments will even go so far as to weaken their own country’s institutions for political gain.	而从今天的波兰和匈牙利身上，我们看到，反自由政府甚至会为了政治利益削弱本国的机构。


The time has come for the EU to take bold action before other member-state governments try the same trick.	欧盟应该在其他成员国政府效仿它们的例子之前采取果断措施。


New Puppet, Same Puppet Master in Poland	波兰的新傀儡，同样的幕后操纵者


WARSAW – Whether Poland’s parliament, the Sejm, would manage to hold a vote on Mateusz Morawiecki’s nomination as prime minister remained unclear until the last minute.	华沙——直到最后一分钟，波兰议会色姆是否能就马泰乌什·莫拉维茨基的总理提名举行投票仍不清楚。


December 13 was fast approaching, and the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party wanted to avoid holding the vote on that date at all costs.	12月13日即将到来，执政的法律与正义党希望不惜一切代价阻止在那天进行投票。


For Poles, December 13 is associated with the communist government’s declaration of martial law in 1981.	对波兰人而言，12月13日能够唤起他们对1981年共产党政府宣布戒严令的记忆。


On that night 36 years ago, Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS’s chairman and today the de facto leader of Poland, was sleeping soundly while communism’s true opponents were arrested by the thousands.	36年前的那天晚上，在法律与正义党主席及当前波兰事实领导人雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基熟睡之际，数千名共产党的真正对手遭到逮捕。


Stanisław Piotrowicz, the state prosecutor under martial law (which remained in effect until 1983), is currently leading the PiS government’s campaign to seize control of the Polish judiciary.	时任军事管制状态下（戒严令一直持续到1983年）国家检察官的彼得罗维奇目前是法律与正义党政府夺取波兰司法控制权运动的领导者。


Morawiecki has now been sworn in as prime minister, succeeding Beata Szydło, under whose premiership the PiS enjoyed higher favorability – reaching 47% in October – than at any other time in its history.	莫拉维茨基现已宣誓接替贝亚塔·希德沃出任总理一职，在希德沃就任总理期间，法律与正义党一直享受着高规格待遇——10月在民意调查中的受欢迎程度达到47%——是该党有史以来的最高值。


According to the most popular theory, the only reason for replacing her is PiS’s desire to mollify the European Union (which is poised to impose unprecedented sanctions on a Union member because of Poland’s failure to uphold EU norms) and attract investors.	最被人广为接受的理论认为替换她的唯一原因是法律与正义党想要安抚欧盟的情绪（由于波兰未能遵守欧盟规则，欧盟正准备出台前所未有的针对欧盟成员国的制裁措施）并同时吸引投资。


Investment as a share of GDP fell significantly in 2016, to just above 18%, and has continued to fall through 2017, amounting to the worst performance in 21 years.	2016年投资占GDP的比重大幅下降至略超18%，而且2017年全年仍延续下滑趋势，创下21年来最差表现记录。


While serving as deputy prime minister in Szydło’s cabinet, Morawiecki, a former bank executive, announced a plan to attract investment in new technologies, which Poland needs to sustain economic convergence with its wealthier EU neighbors.	在希德沃内阁担任副总理期间，曾任银行行长的莫拉维茨基宣布了一项为新技术领域吸引投资的计划，波兰急需发展新技术领域，才能实现其国内经济与欧盟富裕邻国之间的对接。


But Poland owes what limited economic growth it has experienced under the PiS government not to Morawiecki, but to Elżbieta Rafalska, the minister of labor and social policy, who has been propping up consumption with social measures such as a monthly child credit of 500 złoty ($140).	但法律与正义党治下波兰有限的经济增长实际并不来自莫拉维茨基，而是来自劳动与社会政策部部长拉法尔斯卡。 拉法尔斯卡一直采取社会措施来支撑消费，比如发放价值500 兹罗提（合140美元）的儿童补贴。


So, what is the real reason for Szydło’s ouster?	那么，希德沃下台的真正理由是什么？


Simply put, during her tenure, the government took the Polish ship of state for such a ride that the keel eventually had to be replaced.	简言之，在她的任期内，政府疯狂驾驶波兰国家之船，以至于最后不得不更换龙骨。


Her party has co-opted every institution and instrument of power that it can, with little thought about the consequences.	她所在党派不择手段地利用一切可能的机构和权力工具，几乎丝毫没有考虑会带来什么样的后果。


But now it will have a harder time broadening its hold on power.	但现在波兰政府扩大权力面临着更大的难度。


Taking over or suppressing the private media, for example, would bring the party into conflict not just with the opposition, but also with entrenched business interests, which carry much more clout abroad than Poland’s beleaguered courts do.	例如，接管或压制私人媒体不仅会带来与反对派的冲突，而且会触动根深蒂固的商业利益，而后者在国外的影响力远比波兰饱受批评的法院大得多。


Morawiecki confronted this reality the day after his nomination, when a draconian government fine against the independent TVN24 television network, a subsidiary of the American media company Scripps Networks Interactive, drew sharp rebukes from both the US Department of State and the EU.	莫拉维茨基在提名的第二天就面临了这样的现实状况，因为针对独立的TVN24 电视网（美国媒体公司Scripps Networks Interactive的附属机构）的严厉的政府罚款引发了美国国务院和欧盟的指责。


In his first interview as prime minister, Morawiecki told the far-right broadcaster Radio Maryja that he plans to “re-Christianize Europe.”	在首次以总理身份接受采访时，莫拉维茨基告诉持极右翼观点的玛利亚广播电台他打算“重新实现欧洲基督化”。


Does that sound like someone seeking reconciliation with the EU?	这句话听上去有没有任何与欧盟和解的意味？


Morawiecki is not exactly known for his tact or foresight.	莫拉维茨基出名靠的并不是理智和远见。


When TVN24’s Monika Olejnik asked him to choose between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, he replied that it would be like choosing between plague and cholera.	当TVN24的莫尼卡·奥莱伊尼克要他在希拉里·克林顿和唐纳德·特朗普之间作出选择时，他回答说这就像选择霍乱和瘟疫。


Needless to say, Morawiecki’s first meeting with the US president will be interesting to watch.	毋须多言，莫拉维茨基与美国总统的首次会面将会非常有趣。


The fact is that the Polish government’s overhaul has been in the works for some time.	事实是波兰政府的大规模改革已经持续一段时间了。


But in the original plan, Kaczyński himself was supposed to step in as prime minister.	但按照原来的计划，卡钦斯基本人应当成为继任总理的人选。


But he had second thoughts, fearing that the move would jeopardize the PiS’s chances in the 2019 parliamentary elections.	但事到临头他又有所犹豫，担心这样的举动会威胁法律与正义党参加2019年议会选举。


Kaczyński wants an overwhelming victory, and he knows that he, along with Antoni Macierewicz, the defense minister, is one of Poland’s least popular or trusted politicians.	卡钦斯基渴望一场压倒性的胜利，而他知道他和国防部长安东尼·马切雷维奇是波兰政界最不受民众欢迎和信任的人物。


Szydło and Morawiecki are viewed more favorably.	民众对希德沃和莫拉维茨基的看法更加积极。


Kaczyński is, moreover, already prone to public outbursts, and he would have been expected to speak publicly – and even to answer occasional questions from journalists – were he to have assumed the premiership.	此外，卡钦斯基很容易引发公众情绪失控，而如果他担任总理职务——他肯定需要当众演讲——甚至偶尔回答记者提出的问题。


With Szydło, government officials were not too afraid to tell the boss unpleasant truths.	如果希德沃出任总理，政府官员告诉老板令人不愉快的事实真相并不会存在太大问题。


But with Kaczyński formally in charge, the government would quickly end up entangled in its own lies – deceiving itself and the public at the same time.	但如果卡钦斯基正式上台，政府很快就会被自己的谎言牢牢捆住手脚——在欺骗公众的同时欺骗自己。


With Morawiecki as prime minister, Kaczyński can continue to use his current non-governmental role to control the government without having to take responsibility for its policies or actions.	如果莫拉维茨基担任总理，卡钦斯基可以继续利用当前非政府人士的身份来控制政府，而不必为政府的政策或行动负责。


In this, Kaczyński is emulating his idol, the interwar leader Józef Piłsudski (though the “First Marshal of Poland” did go on to serve as prime minister twice).	在这一点上，卡钦斯基正在模仿他的偶像，两次世界大战之间的波兰领袖约瑟夫·毕苏斯基（尽管这位“波兰第一元帅”确实曾经两次担任总理）。


Given these political considerations, Morawiecki is good prime minister material for the same reason that Szydło was: he is a nobody in the party.	鉴于上述政治因素，莫拉维茨基和希德沃一样是理想的总理材料：他们都在党内是无名小卒。


And now that he has Kaczyński’s support, he is deeply resented by other leading PiS figures such as Macierewicz and justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who has just assumed direct control of the courts.	而现在他拥有了卡钦斯基的支持，并因此深受马切雷维奇和（刚刚实现了对法院直接控制的）司法部长兹比格涅夫·兹波布罗等其他法律与正义党领导人物的妒忌。


This makes Morawiecki a reliable puppet.	这些都使莫拉维茨基成为可靠的傀儡。


And he is meant to serve a specific purpose.	他的存在是为了达到某种特定的目的。


After shoring up its position on the Polish right, PiS wants to broaden its appeal to the center in preparation for the next election.	在巩固波兰右翼地位后，法律与正义党为筹备下一次大选希望提升对中间人士的吸引力。


Morawiecki job is to impede the opposition and counteract President Andrzej Duda, who has acted independently, such as by vetoing part of the government’s judicial power grab.	莫拉维茨基的工作就是阻止反对派和抵制独立行事的安杰伊·杜达总统，比如通过否决部分政府的司法权力。


(Duda gave up eventually, but Kaczyński had already lost confidence in him.)	（杜达最终放弃了抵抗，但卡钦斯基已经对他失去了信心。 ）


Morawiecki will seduce neither the EU nor the business community.	莫拉维茨基既引诱不了欧盟也引诱不了商界。


But he will make it easier for middle-class voters to identify with PiS.	但他会使中产阶级选民更容易认同法律与正义党。


In the first opinion poll conducted after his nomination, the party achieved a 50% favorability rating – a new record.	在他提名后的首次民调中，该党赢得了50%的支持率——并因此创造了新的纪录。


As always, Kaczyński’s top concern is to consolidate his own power.	与往常一样，卡钦斯基最关心的是巩固自己的权力。


He has never been interested in the European project, and he has demonstrated over the past two years that he has no use for the EU.	他从未对欧洲计划真正感兴趣，而且过去两年来他不断向外界表示他对欧盟不感兴趣。


Sooner or later, the EU will demonstrate that it has no use for him, either, and Poland’s people will lose out once again.	欧盟迟早也将失去对他的兴趣，而波兰人民将会再次遭受损失。


Mourning Poland’s Anti-Populist Martyr	哀悼波兰的自焚者


WARSAW – Late in the afternoon on October 19, a 54-year-old man outside the Palace of Culture and Science in Warsaw distributed several dozen copies of a letter addressed to the Polish people.	华沙——10月19日下午晚些时候，一名54岁的男子在华沙科学文化宫外散发了几十份写给波兰民众的公开信。


Then he set himself on fire - a protest and sacrifice that called to mind the protests of Buddhist monks against the Vietnam War a half-century ago, and that of the Czech student Jan Palach against the Soviet crushing of the Prague Spring in 1969.	而后他点火自焚。


The text of the letter that was left behind is eminently rational. It carefully enumerates and decries actions taken by Poland’s government that, according to Polish and international courts alike, amount to an attack on the rule of law and liberal democracy.	信的内容非常理性，他仔细历数并谴责了波兰政府所采取的行动，按照波兰和国际法院的说法，这些行动相当于破坏法治和自由民主。


The letter accuses the government, controlled by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, of restricting civil liberties and undermining the judiciary.	该信件指责由法律与正义党（PiS）所控制的政府限制公民自由并破坏司法体系。


Specifically, it condemns the PiS for its discrimination against immigrants, women, LGBT people, Muslims, and others, and for destroying the environment, by supporting coal-based energy, hunting, and logging in Białowieża Forest.	这封信特别谴责法律与正义党对移民、女性、同性恋、穆斯林和其他少数群体的歧视，并谴责他们因为支持煤炭能源、狩猎和在比亚沃维耶扎森林伐木而对环境造成的破坏。


More broadly, the letter also denounces “the people holding the country’s highest offices” for abdicating government decision-making to PiS Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński, who holds no public office; and for converting public television and radio stations into PiS “propaganda organs.”	从更广义的角度，这封信还谴责那些“担任国家最高公职者”将政府决策权让渡给法律与正义党主席雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基，而后者则是没有担任任何公职的； 这封信还谴责他们将公共电视和广播电台转化为法律与正义党的“宣传机构”。


And it laments that the PiS government has made Poland an “object of ridicule” on the world stage.	此外，这封信还哀叹法律与正义党政府使波兰成为国际舞台上的被“嘲笑对象”。


One of the man’s goals in immolating himself, according to the letter, was to force “the chairman of PiS and the entire PiS nomenklatura to recognize that my death is their direct responsibility, and that they have my blood on their hands.”	公开信显示这名男性的自我牺牲是要迫使“法律与正义党主席和在该党担任要职的官员公开承认他们对我的死直接负责，他们的手上沾染了我的鲜血。


The man hoped that his act of protest would influence PiS supporters – 47% of the population, according to the latest polls – who should not want their favored policies to be enacted in ways that undermine democracy and the rule of law.	”这名男子希望他的抗议之举会影响法律与正义党的支持者——最新民调结果显示这些人占波兰总人口的47%——他们不会希望他们所支持政策的执行最终损害波兰的法治与民主。


But the letter also implores the party’s opponents – 16% of Poles support the largest opposition party – “to remember that PiS voters are our mothers, brothers, neighbors, friends, and colleagues.”	但这封信同时恳求该党反对者——16%的波兰人支持最大反对党——“牢记法律与正义党选民是我们的母亲、兄弟、邻居、朋友和同事。


As such, they should not be vilified, but rather reminded of “the rules of democracy.”	”因此，他们不应遭到诋毁，而是应当提醒他们注意“民主规则”。


The letter concludes by calling on all Poles to “wake up” and change their government before it causes irreparable damage to the country.	这封信最后呼吁所有波兰人“清醒过来”，在政府对国家造成不可挽回的损害之前改变政府。


So far, all we know about the letter writer is that his first name is Piotr, and that he is currently in critical condition, with burns covering 60% of his body.	到目前为止，我们只知道这封信的作者名叫皮奥特，而且他现在生命垂危，全身60%的面积都被烧伤。


But, despite his anonymity, his ideas are resonating through Poland.	但尽管他籍籍无名，他的想法却在整个波兰引起反响。


In a separate letter to the media, Piotr warned that the PiS would attempt to minimize his act of protest.	在给媒体的另外一封信中，皮奥特警告法律与正义党会竭尽全力削弱其抗议行为的影响。


“Their first point of attack,” he predicted, would be to point out that he suffers from depression.	“他们的首要攻击目标，”他预测，就是指出他患有抑郁症。


“I am what you could call a mentally ill person,” he wrote.	“我是你们所说的精神病患者，”他写道。


“But there are millions like me in Poland, and somehow they manage to function more or less normally.”	“但波兰像我一样的人有几百万，而且他们多多少少行为都比较正常。


Piotr’s plea is clear: please do not confuse depression with insanity.	”皮奥特的请求非常明确：请不要混淆抑郁症和疯狂。


In Poland, the reactions to Piotr’s self-immolation have been mixed.	波兰人对皮奥特的自焚事件反应不一。


At first, the media were rather silent, with the exception of a few opposition pundits who spoke out to hold the PiS responsible.	起初，媒体表现十分沉默，只有少数反对派权威人士公开表态法律与正义党应对此负责。


In response to this criticism, Interior Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, tried, as predicted, to attribute Piotr’s action to his depression.	在回应上述批评时，内政部长布瓦什查克就像皮奥特所预测的那样试图将皮奥特的行为归结于他的抑郁症。


Błaszczak then described Piotr as “a victim of the opposition’s all-out propaganda, which proclaims that they are fighting the government in the streets and abroad.”	布瓦什查克而后称皮奥特是“反对派全面宣传攻势的受害者，反对派声称他们正在国内街道和国外反对波兰政府。 ”


Meanwhile, the renowned Polish filmmaker Agnieszka Holland issued a strong rebuke against liberal media outlets that would attribute Piotr’s protest to mental illness.	与此同时，著名波兰制片人阿格涅丝卡·霍兰德发表强烈抗议，反对自由媒体将皮奥特的抗议归结为精神病的结果。


It is an “act of extreme moral laziness,” she wrote on Oko.press, to explain “such extreme civic despair and self-sacrifice as a result of depression, mental illness, and a related desire to end one’s own life.”	这是一种“极端道德懒惰的表现”，她在Oko. press写道，“才会用抑郁症、精神病及与之相关的结束生命的愿望来解释如此极端的公众绝望和自我牺牲。


Holland speaks from a position of authority on this topic.	霍兰德在这个问题上有权威话语权。


She is the daughter of Henryk Holland, an anti-Communist dissident who committed suicide in 1961.	他是亨利克·霍兰德的女儿，后者是1961年自杀的反共持不同政见者。


And in 2013, she made an HBO miniseries about Palach’s self-immolation in Wenceslas Square.	2013年，她制作了一部HBO系列短片，讲述捷克学生扬·帕拉赫1969年在瓦茨拉夫广场的自焚活动。


For my part, I believe the Polish people should heed the message that Piotr conveyed in his letter.	我个人认为，皮奥特在公开信中所表达的内容应当引起波兰民众的关注。


Even if his actions did stem from some personal crisis, they should not be written off as the behavior of an irrational person.	即使他的行为的确源于某种个人危机，但也不能被当做非理性行为而被完全抹杀掉。


After all, we can’t possibly know more than the man himself about his intentions.	归根结底，我们不可能比他本人更了解他的企图。


He deserves to have his stated motives and opinions known, discussed, and taken seriously.	他公开宣称的动机和意见应当得到认真对待和探讨。


But Piotr’s act should not be made a spectacle in Poland’s political fight, or wielded haphazardly as a blunt object against the PiS or anyone else.	但皮奥特的行为不应被视为波兰政治斗争中的一场演出，也不应被随意当做反对法律与正义党或其他任何人的理由。


As the World Health Organization states in its guidelines for journalists covering suicides, “Suicide should not be reported as unexplainable or in a simplistic way.”	世界卫生组织曾在自杀行为报导指南中指出，“不应以无法解释或者简单粗暴的方式对自杀行为进行报道。


Moreover, suicide victims should not be glorified as “martyrs and objects of public adulation,” lest other “susceptible persons” come to think “that their society honors suicidal behavior.”	”此外，自杀受害者不应被奉为“烈士或成为公众追捧的对象”，以免其他“易受影响者”认为“自杀行为受到其所在社会的尊重”。


After an act of despair such as what Poland witnessed this month, the first priority should be to mourn the victim.	在波兰本月见证的绝望行为发生后，哀悼受害者应当成为首要的目标。


The second should be to channel the despair that many are feeling in ways that nurture hope.	其次是应当以某种方式引导许多人感受到的绝望，让这种绝望成为希望的先导。


Economic Growth Is No Longer Enough	经济增长已不再足够


MADRID – Macroeconomic data from the world’s advanced economies can be mystifying when viewed in isolation.	马德里—世界发达经济体的宏观经济数据孤立起来看会让人难以费解。


But when analyzed collectively, the data reveal a troubling truth: without changes to how wealth is generated and distributed, the political convulsions that have swept the world in recent years will only intensify.	但若对它们进行集体分析，那么这些数据揭示了一个麻烦的事实：如果财富产生和分配的方式不发生变化，近几年来席卷世界的政治“抽风”只会更加严重。


Consider, for example, wages and employment.	以工资和就业为例。


In the United States and many European countries, average salaries have stagnated, despite most economies having recovered from the 2008 financial crisis in terms of GDP and job growth.	在美国和许多欧洲国家，平均工资停滞不前，尽管从GDP和就业增长角度看，大部分经济体已经从2008年金融危机中复苏。


Moreover, increases in employment have not led to a slowdown or a reversal of the decline in the wage share of total national income.	此外，就业的增长并未让工资占国民总收入之比下降的趋势有所放缓乃至逆转。


On the contrary, most of the wealth created since the 2008 crisis has gone to the rich.	相反，大部分2008年危机后所创造的财富都流向了富人。


This might explain the low levels of consumption that characterize most advanced economies, and the failure of extremely lax monetary policy to produce an uptick in inflation.	这也许可以解释大部分发达经济体消费水平低迷的现象，以及为何极端宽松的货币政策也无法提高通胀。


Employment, too, seems to be performing in anomalous ways.	就业表现也表现得有些反常。


Job creation, where it has taken place, has followed a different path than history suggests it should.	在发生就业创造的地方，并没有遵循历史路径。


For example, most employment growth has been in high-skill or low-skill occupations, hollowing out the middle.	比如，大部分就业增长发生在高技能或低技能岗位，而没有发生在中等技能岗位。


Many of the people who once comprised the Western middle class are now part of the middle-lower and lower classes, and live more economically precarious lives than ever before.	许多曾经跻身西方中产阶级的人，现在属于中低阶层或低收入阶层，他们的生活面临着比从前更大的经济不确定性。


Productivity growth has also become polarized.	生产率增长也变得极化。


According to the OECD, in the last decade, productivity within “frontier firms” – defined as the top 5% of firms in terms of productivity growth – increased by more than a third, whereas the rest of the private sector experienced almost no productivity growth at all.	据经合组织数据，在过去十年中，“前沿企业”——定义为生产率增长最高的5%的企业——它们的生产率提高了三分之一多，而其他私人部门企业，则生产率几乎没有任何提高。


In other words, a smaller number of companies have made greater efficiency gains, but there has been relatively no diffusion of these benefits into the broader economy.	换句话说，更少的公司贡献了更多的效率增长，但相对来说，这些好处没有扩散到整个经济中。


It is unclear why these trends are occurring, although the impact of new technologies and related network effects is certainly part of the reason.	这些趋势为何发生尚不清楚，但新科技和相关网络效应显然是部分原因。


At the macro level, aggregate US productivity has increased by more than 250% since the early 1970s, while hourly wages have remained stagnant.	在宏观层面，美国总生产率自20世纪70年代初以来提高了250%以上，但时薪保持停滞。


This means that productivity growth has not only been concentrated within a narrow set of firms, but also that productivity and market labor income have decoupled.	这意味着生产率增长不但只集中于少数几类企业，并且与市场劳动力收入脱了钩。


The fundamental consequence of this is that wages are no longer performing the central redistributive role they have played for decades.	这一现象的根本性后果是工资不再扮演过去几十年中所起到的核心再分配角色。


Simply put, gains in capital productivity are not being translated into higher median incomes, a breach of the social contract on which liberal economies rest.	简言之，资本生产率的增加不再转化为更高的中位收入，这不符合作为自由经济基础的社会契约。


It should be evident by now that many of the world’s economies are undergoing some form of structural change, and in the wake of that change, the “jobs-productivity-income” distribution triangle has gone askew.	如今，显而易见世界上许多经济体正在经历某种结构性变化，并且，这一变化导致了“就业岗位-生产率-收入”分配三角发生倾斜。


This paradigm shift has led to the erosion of the Western middle class and the rise of the precariat, a new socioeconomic class comprising not just those who cannot find a job, but also those who are informally, casually, or otherwise insecurely employed.	这一范式的变化导致了西方中产阶级的式微，以及朝不保夕阶级（precariat）的出现，这个新的社会经济阶级不但包括那些找不到工作的人，也包括那些从事非正式、非全职或无保障的工作的人。


We now have abundant evidence linking the perception of economic insecurity in the West with anti-elite sentiment, political radicalization, and attacks on minorities.	大量证据表明，西方的经济不安全感与反精英情绪、政治激进化和攻击少数群体有关。


It is impossible to explain the recent rise of populist politics without considering the effects of these economic pathologies on average workers in the US and Europe.	如果不考虑这些经济症候对美国和欧洲普通工人的影响，就无法解释最近民粹主义兴起的现象。


To understand why the deviations from expected economic trajectories have occurred, one need look no further than the impact of technology on jobs.	要理解为何会发生偏离预期的经济轨道的情况，只需要看看科技对就业的影响便知。


Advanced technologies, particularly advanced computing and robotics, have enabled productivity gains to occur without a corresponding increase in wages.	先进技术，特别是先进计算和机器人技术，让生产率的提高不引起工资相应增长。


The greater wealth generated by higher productivity goes instead to the owners of these technologies.	相反，生产率提高所创造出来的新财富，更多地流入了这些技术的所有者的腰包。


Automation of fairly sophisticated routine jobs is driving the polarization of the labor market.	相当成熟的常规岗位被自动化，这促使劳动力市场发生极化。


What remains are either hard-to-automate tasks that require little or no skill, or hard-to-automate tasks that require very high skills.	剩下的要么是难以自动化但对技能的要求很低甚至根本没有的任务，要么是难以自动化的对技能的要求很高的任务。


The latter jobs are much smaller in number than the former, and they happen to be in frontier firms that are leveraging the effects of technology to outperform direct competitors, and to expand into new markets.	后一类岗位在数量上要远远少于前一类，而它们又碰巧正属于利用科技的影响超越直接竞争对手并扩张进入新市场的前沿企业。


This brings us to the central question of our era: How can leaders address the externalities produced by rapid technological change, and thereby ensure economic and political sustainability?	这就引出了现时代的核心问题：领导人如何解决迅速的科技变化所造成的外部性，从而确保经济和政治的可持续性？


Put another way, how can we construct a new social contract for the digital age?	换句话说，我们如何构建数字时代的新社会契约？


Remedies are harder to come by than diagnoses.	诊断容易治疗难。


It is unclear, for example, if applying old economic treatments would reverse current trends.	比如，你无法知道旧经济处方是否能够扭转当前趋势。


Pushing “structural reforms” and designing narrow macroeconomic policies aimed exclusively at increasing productivity might force Western workers to compete with technology to an even greater extent, exacerbating precariousness.	推行“结构性改革”和设计完全以提高生产率为目标的狭隘的宏观经济政策可能迫使西方工人与科技进行更大程度的竞争，加剧不确定性。


Perhaps our current economic arrangements can produce growth only at the aggregate level, while driving down most people’s living standards.	也许我们当前的经济安排只能产生总体增长，但大部分人的生活水平反而会下降。


The debate about solutions has only just begun.	关于解决方案的争论才刚刚开始。


Reducing economic inequality will require reforms of education and taxation, with the tax burden shifting decisively from labor to capital.	降低经济不平等性需要教育和税收改革，让税收负担决定性地从劳动力转移到资本。


Western countries will also need to create new redistributive mechanisms to supplement the declining role of wages in their economies.	西方国家还需要建立新的再分配机制以补充工资在经济中越来越次要的角色。


The data make an overwhelming case for such reforms.	数据表明这些改革势在必行。


If Western leaders are to contain, and ultimately quell, the political convulsions that their countries are now experiencing, they have no choice but to respond by crafting new, inclusive growth models.	如果西方领导人想要遏制并最终平息各自国家所发生的经济抽风，就必须以打造新的包容性增长模式来应对，除此之外别无他法。


Can Movement Politics Renew European Democracy?	运动政治能让欧洲民主焕然一新吗？


PRINCETON – Many people expected the big political story of 2017 to be about the triumph of populism in Europe.	普林斯顿—很多人认为2017年的政治大事件是民粹主义在欧洲的胜利。


But things didn’t turn out that way.	但他们没有如愿。


Instead, the biggest story was about self-styled “movements” upending or replacing traditional political parties.	相反，大事件是颠覆或取代传统政党的自称的“运动”。


Consider French President Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche!, which swept the French presidential and parliamentary elections this past spring.	比如，法国总统马克龙的“共和国前进”（La République En Marche! ）在春季横扫法国总统和议会选举。


Or consider how, at the end of the year, 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz became Chancellor of Austria after refashioning the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) into a movement called “The Sebastian Kurz list – The New People’s Party.”	又比如，时至年末，31岁的库尔兹凭借将保守的奥地利人民党（ÖVP）改造为所谓的“塞巴斯蒂安·库尔兹名单—新人民党”而当选奥地利总理。


Across the European continent, more voters have come to see traditional political parties as self-interested and power-hungry.	放眼欧洲，更多的选民认为传统政党自利而贪权。


In the developing world, too, parties with well-established pedigrees, such as the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, are now widely regarded as corrupt.	发展中世界也是如此，历史悠久的老牌政党如南非的非洲国大党（ANC）被广泛认为腐败不堪。


In many cases, traditional parties have become what political scientists call “cartels”: they use state resources to remain in power, and, regardless of their policy differences, they often work together to keep out challengers.	在许多例子中，传统政党变成了政治学家所谓的“卡特尔”：它们用国家资源保护权力，不管政策上有什么区别，往往会抱团打压挑战者。


Young voters, in particular, seem to have less interest in working for traditional parties, which they view as overly bureaucratic, and thus boring.	特别是年轻选民不再热衷于为传统政党工作，他们认为这些政党过于官僚主义，所以无聊透顶。


One is reminded of Oscar Wilde’s famous quip about the problem with socialism: it takes up too many evenings.	你不禁会想起王尔德（Oscar Wilde）嘲讽社会主义的问题的名言：它占用了太多夜晚。


Not surprisingly, then, the most innovative political experiments in Europe in recent years have emerged from street protests and mass assemblies that eschewed hierarchical forms of organization.	因此，毫不奇怪，近几年来欧洲最具创新性的政治实验崛起于规避了层级制组织形式的街头示威和群众集会。


For example, Spain’s left-wing Podemos was formed after mass demonstrations by the indignados in 2011.	比如，西班牙左翼政党“我们可以”（Podemos）运动形成于2011年愤怒者（indignados）群众示威之后。 在2013年议会选举中脱颖而出的意大利民粹主义政党五星运动（M5S）被人们预计将在2018年再次表现出色。


Italy’s populist Five Star Movement (M5S), which came out on top in Italy’s 2013 parliamentary elections and is predicted to do well again in 2018, emerged from large rallies organized by comedian Beppe Grillo against “la casta” – his derogatory term for what he sees as the country’s ruling casteof professional politicians and journalists.	该政党崛起于喜剧演员格里洛（Beppe Grillo）所组织的反对“特权阶级”（la casta）的大型示威活动。 他用“特权阶级”来嘲讽他眼中的由职业政客和记者所组成的执政阶层。


Yet something funny happened between these movements’ origins as spontaneous, inclusive street protests and their later success at the ballot box.	但这些运动以自发、包容性的街头示威为起点，日后在选举中大获成功，在此期间发生了很有趣的东西。


Ironically, even as they have continued to tout horizontal forms of organization and participatory democracy, their charismatic leaders have concentrated ever more power in their own hands.	讽刺的是，尽管它们一直兜售扁平的组织形式和参与型的民主形式，这些运动的魅力超凡的领导人们却在手中集中了更多的权力。