Both the Palestinians and Israel can easily and rightly be blamed for the failure of the Oslo process.	奥斯陆和平进程失败我们有理由责怪巴勒斯坦人和以色列人。


But there is a more fundamental cause at stake, and it should not be overlooked.	但其中涉及到更根本的原因，我们也不应当忽视。


The Oslo process tried to build a Palestinian state from the top down: create a Palestinian national authority, hand over territory to it, give it increasing power, arm it and finance it, hold elections, and a Palestinian state would emerge.	奥斯陆进程企图自上而下地实现巴勒斯坦建国：建立巴勒斯坦民族权力机构、向其移交土地、逐步扩大权力、为其配备武器提供资金、举行选举、这样巴勒斯坦国就会慢慢崛起。


Instead, the consequence was a corrupt, militarized Palestinian Authority, with competing security services proved incapable of providing security.	不过事与愿违，以这种方式建立起来的却是一个军事化、腐败的巴勒斯坦政府，各派安全力量之间相互掣肘，根本无法提供安全服务。


Nor could it conduct credible negotiations with Israel or deliver necessary services to ordinary Palestinians.	这样的机构也无法与以色列举行可信的谈判，同样不能为普普通通的巴勒斯坦人提供必要的服务。


Two reasons for this failure stand out: the institutional weakness of Palestinian civil society, which lacks the infrastructure necessary for nation-building; and the impossibility of simultaneous nation-building and peace-making.	两大原因导致了这样的失败：其一是巴勒斯坦公民社会的制度弱点，缺乏建国所必须的基础设施； 另外则是不可能同时完成建国和维和两大任务。


There is no precedent anywhere in the world that suggests that such a two-tier process can succeed.	全世界还没有任何先例表明这样一种双重目标的努力能够取得成功。


A fundamental change of paradigm is needed: the effort should shift to building a Palestinian state from the bottom up, for which there are encouraging signs, even in the midst of the failure of the top-down process.	必须要对计划做出根本性的改变：努力的目标应当转到自下而上地建立巴勒斯坦国，即便是在自上而下努力失败的时候，也有令人鼓舞的迹象表明，自下而上的努力将是我们的出路。


In the last two years, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US General Keith Dayton have succeeded in effective institution-building in three West Bank districts – Jenin, Bethlehem, and Hebron – turning them into the most peaceful areas in the West Bank, with a minimal Israeli military presence.	过去两年来，英国前首相托尼·布莱尔和美国将军基思·代顿已经成功地在杰宁、伯利恒和希伯伦等西岸三大区域建立了有效运转的体制——从而把上述地区变成了以色列部署军力最少的西岸最和平的区域。 地方当局得到了充足的资金和建议；


Local authorities were supplied with adequate funding and advice; independent chambers of commerce became the backbone of a local commercial middle class, which is interested in keeping the region peaceful, even absent an overall agreement; local police were trained (in Jordan), and now function effectively as police forces, not armed militias; and business relations with adjacent Israeli regions have been renewed.	独立商会成为当地商人中产阶级的主心骨，他们即便在没有签订总体协议的情况下也竭力维护地区的和平； 当地警察（在约旦）受训，现在有效地扮演着警察、而不是武装民兵的角色；


This empowerment of an effective local leadership was done with much persistence – and little fanfare. But these nuts-and-bolts projects created – for the first time – the building blocks necessary for effective Palestinian nation-building.	这种针对当地领导层的有效授权行动更多的是持之以恒——而绝非虚张声势。 但这种基础性的项目首次为巴勒斯坦有效建国铺平了道路。


Admittedly, this process will take time and patience.	不可否认的是，这样的和平进程需要时间和耐心。


But, until now, it has been the only approach proven to succeed, while everything else has failed.	但到目前为止，它仍然是经过事实证明的唯一一条成功的道路，而其他所有方法都以失败而告终。


As Blair recently put it, such a bottom-up process may even go hand-in-hand with Netanyahu’s goal of an “economic peace,” though it would eventually have to go beyond it.	正如布莱尔不久前所说的那样，这样一种自下而上的和平进程甚至可以同内塔尼亚胡的“经济和平”目标和谐共处，虽然它最终必将超越上述领域。


That such an approach would have to include a total halt to Israeli settlement activities goes without saying.	而且一个不争的事实是，这种方式必须彻底停止以色列一切定居活动。


If carefully crafted, it may even be implicitly accepted, albeit without much enthusiasm, by the Israeli government.	如果措辞时更加谨慎，这一进程甚至可能得到以色列政府的暗中认可，虽然这样的结果也许并不能令他们完全满意。


The Oslo process has failed; an attempt to revive it – say, by way of the Beirut Arab peace initiative – will merely bring into the open all of the existing disagreements between the two sides, and will not overcome the Palestinian failure at nation-building.	奥斯陆和平进程已经失败，重新启动这一进程的努力——比如以贝鲁特阿拉伯和平协议的方式——只能导致双方现有矛盾的公开化，也无法跨越巴勒斯坦建国的失败努力而取得成功。


After all the breakdowns in efforts to create a Palestinian state from the top down, only the old-fashioned way – from the bottom up – remains viable.	在经历了自上而下建国的种种挫折之后，只有老式的方法——自下而上——才是一种可行的选择。


Building Pax Asia-Pacifica	构建亚太区域共治下的和平


MANILA – One of the main sources of tension in Asia nowadays are the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, where the Philippines, Vietnam, China, and others have conflicting claims.	发自马尼拉——亚洲当前紧张局势的主要来源之一就是斯普拉特利群岛（即中国南沙群岛，西方称之为Spratly Islands）和南中国海问题，因为包括菲律宾，越南以及中国在内的众多国家一直对该区域存在主权争议。


In Chinese media reports, the heightened “unfriendliness” in the region has allegedly arisen from “bad rumors and speculations” on the part of Filipino commentators.	据中国媒体报道，该区域日渐浓厚的“不友善”气氛主要是由某些菲律宾评论者“散布谣言和妄加猜测”所挑起的。 但事实却摆在那里：五月，中国飞机入侵菲律宾（在该区域的）领空；


But the reality is starker: the intrusions by Chinese aircraft into Filipino airspace in May; Chinese patrol boats cruising in March in the Recto (Reed) Bank, 85 miles west of the Filipino island of Palawan; and, most serious of all, a Chinese missile frigate firing at Filipino fishing boats in February near Palawan’s Quirino atoll.	三月，中国巡逻船进犯距菲律宾巴拉望岛仅85公里的Recto Bank（即南沙群岛礼乐摊）； 更严重的是，二月时一艘中国导弹护卫舰竟然在巴拉望岛Quirino atoll（即南沙群岛五方礁）附近海域炮击菲律宾渔船。


Will armed conflict result from these recurring – and, it seems, escalating – disputes between the Philippines and Vietnam on one side, and China on the other?	那么这类一再产生（似乎也在不断升级）的摩擦是否会演变成为菲越两国与中国之间的武装冲突？


War, of course, is in no one’s interest. But the risk posed by these disputes is growing, because China’s relations with both the Philippines and Vietnam are at their lowest point in decades.	战争显然对各方都没有好处，但摩擦所带来的风险却在不断上升，因为中国与菲越两国的关系已经降到了数十年来的最低点。


Given these tensions, it is no surprise that the issue of disputed sovereignty in the South China Sea is almost certain to claim center stage at this month’s ASEAN Regional Forum, and at the East Asia summit in Bali that will follow it.	在这样的紧张局势下，南中国海的主权争议无疑将很可能成为本月东盟区域论坛以及随后巴厘岛东亚峰会的核心议题。


Last June, I gave the keynote speech at the celebrations marking the 36th anniversary of the establishment of Philippines-China diplomatic relations and the 10th anniversary of Philippines-China “Friendship Day” in the presence of 5,000 of my countrymen and a smattering of Chinese officials.	去年七月，我面对5000名菲利宾民众和几位中国官员发表了庆祝菲中建交36周年暨“菲中友谊日”10周年的讲话。


Yet on that same day, the headlines in Chinese papers were blasting the Philippines for its historic claim to ownership of the Spratly Islands.	但就在同一天，中国国内报章的头条却在谴责菲利宾对斯普拉特利群岛的历史主权要求。


Of course, the governments of both countries recognize the need to maintain the stability and cooperation that have made East Asia the world’s fastest growing region.	当然，两国政府都认识到维持东亚这一世界上发展最快区域的稳定与协作的重要性。


The same is true of Vietnam’s government and that of the United States.	而这一点也适用于越南和美国政府。


But there is no institutionalized means to discuss and resolve the dispute, which is taking on greater significance almost daily, owing to the belief that vast mineral and energy resources lay on the sea bed around the Spratlys.	但目前仍未有任何制度化手段来调解这一争端，鉴于各方都知道该海域蕴藏有大量矿产能源，对此手段的渴望也日益迫切。


Now is the time for China, the Philippines, Vietnam, other claimants, and the US to take action to begin to diminish these tensions.	如今也是中国、菲律宾、越南，其他各国以及美国着手消除这些紧张态势的时候了。


What is needed, above all, is a covenant among the leaders of the Asia/Pacific region that will make peaceful dispute resolution binding on all stakeholders, big or small.	而当务之急则是由亚太地区各国领导人共同订立公约，无论大国小国，在充分尊重各方利益的情况下制定和平解决方案。


Only such a pledge can provide the type of certainty that investors – any investors – will need if the Spratly resources are to be developed.	也只有这样一个承诺能给于投资者——不管来自哪方——足够的信心来开发该海域的资源。


Certainly, China’s leaders talk as if this is their goal. In April, at this year’s Boao Forum (the Asian Davos) on Hainan Island, Chinese President Hu Jintao asserted: “Peace and development remain the overriding themes of the times.	当然，中国领导人也是如此表态的：在今年4月举行的海南博鳌论坛，中国国家主席胡锦涛表示：“和平与发展依然是这个时代的首要主题。


The world needs peace, countries deserve development, and people want cooperation....China will always be a good neighbor, good friend, and good partner of other Asian countries.”	世界需要和平，各国应当发展，人民渴望合作（该段引用出处不详，对应主旨演讲原文可能为“推动共同发展，共建和谐亚洲，这是时代赋予亚洲人民的共同使命。 ”——译者注）……中国永远做亚洲各国的好邻居、好朋友、好伙伴。


It is past time to make those sentiments a reality; more than a pledge to resolve disputes peacefully is needed.	现在正是将这些声明付诸实施的时候； 摩擦的和平解除也不能仅靠一个承诺。


Asia’s governments must also begin to adhere to a far more expansive idea of open regionalism, which means that countries like India should have a voice in Asia/Pacific affairs, and they must respect the Asian interests of countries beyond the region.	亚洲各国政府也必须同时开始坚持一个代价更大的理念——开放区域主义——这意味着像印度这样的国家也应当对亚太事务拥有发言权，同时必须尊重那些区域外国家的亚洲利益。


The US, for example, should be made welcome to participate – or continue to participate – in peacekeeping and security cooperation.	比如应当欢迎美国参与——或者长期参与——维和与安全合作事务。


But how is Asia to reach consensus on this point?	但亚洲各国如何能在这一点上达成共识？


Ever since 1994, when Vietnam’s President Le Duc Anh held the presidency of ASEAN, I have proposed to ASEAN leaders that the Spratlys be demilitarized as a first step toward building trust.	1994年时任越南国家主席的黎德英担任东南亚国家联盟（东盟）主席时，我就建议东盟各国领导人将斯普拉特利群岛变为非军事区来作为构建信任的第一步。


The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and associated international commitments must become the basis for productive dialogues leading to binding covenants. Joint exploration and development of the resources within and beneath the archipelago could then begin.	《联合国海洋公约》以及相关国际承诺必须成为建设性谈话的基础，以此达成有约束力的公约，并随之启动对该海域资源的联合开发。


More broadly, the urgent task for Asian statesmen over the next 5-10 years will be to replace the region’s Pax Americana, which has guaranteed regional stability for decades, with a more comprehensive Pax Asia-Pacifica that is built on inclusiveness and burden-sharing.	更宏观地说，亚洲政治家在未来5-10年的紧迫任务就是摒弃多年来维护区域稳定的美国治下的和平（Pax Americana），转而用构建在包容和承担之上的亚太区域共治下的和平（Pax Asia-Pacifica）接班。


But such an Asia-Pacific peace will be durable only if it is based on a balance of mutual benefits rather than on the balance of power.	但这一亚太和平只有在基于多方利益平衡而非实力平衡时才能长久。


Clearly, this concept implies burden-sharing by all Asia-Pacific countries to ensure the region’s harmony and security.	很显然，这一概念意味着所有亚太地区国家都必须承担相应责任来确保区域的和谐与安全。


Pax Asia-Pacifica’s institutions will need to be built, as Europe’s peace was built after World War II, on strong, cooperative undertakings among the most powerful countries and regional blocs – the US, China, Japan, India, South Korea, Russia, and the ASEAN 10.	同时也有必要参照二战后的欧洲，在包括美国、中国、日本、印度、韩国，俄罗斯和东盟十国等大国和区域集团的稳固和协作承诺下建立相关亚太共治机构。


The region’s continued economic growth and progress require that we Asians contain our rivalries and avoid the arms buildups that, unfortunately, now seem to be underway.	众所周知，本区域的持续发展和进步需要我们亚洲人消解敌意并避免武装升级，但不幸的是，这一切却正在眼前发生。


Tips for the TTIP	给TTIP的小建议


MADRID – Three years ago, the United States and the European Union launched negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), promising to complete them on “one tank of gas.”	马德里—三年前，美国和欧盟开启了跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系（TTIP）谈判，承诺“一鼓作气”完成谈判。


But now the talks are running on fumes, with sniping on both sides and the political window for an agreement closing fast.	但如今，谈判仍在进行，两方都遇到了重重阻力，达成协定的政治窗口正在迅速关闭。


The obstacles that the TTIP negotiations have run up against are not exclusive to that agreement.	TTIP谈判所遇到的障碍并非它所独有。


They reflect a broader trend – one that demands a fundamental rethink of the prevailing approach to trade and free-trade agreements.	它们反映了一个更为广泛的趋势——这一趋势需要从根本上重新思考贸易和自由贸易协定的流行观点。


It is no secret that the backlash against such agreements has been gaining traction in recent years.	毫无疑问，反对这类协定的力量在近几年中越来越强。


In the US, both presumptive nominees for the presidency – the Democrats’ Hillary Clinton and the Republicans’ Donald Trump – have espoused anti-trade views, with Trump projecting a mercantilist approach unseen in mainstream US political debate since before World War II.	在美国，两位推定总统提名人——民主党的希拉里·克林顿和共和党的唐纳德·特朗普——都支持反贸易观点，特朗普的重商主义立场更是二战以来美国主流政治争论中首次出现。


Moreover, it looks increasingly unlikely that the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the US has negotiated with 11 other Pacific Rim countries, will receive congressional support.	此外，美国与环太平洋十一国所谈成的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系获得国会支持的希望也是日益渺茫。


Politicians in Europe are also following voters in turning against the TTIP.	欧洲政客也在追随选民，转向反对TTIP。


French President François Hollande, in particular, has intensified his opposition to the agreement in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.	特别是法国总统奥朗德，在明年总统大选即将到来之际，他加紧了对TTIP协定的反对。


Support for the agreement has weakened so significantly, in fact, that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has called for leaders to reaffirm their commitment to the deal at this month’s European Council.	事实上，对TTIP协定的支持大幅滑坡，以至于欧盟委员会主席容克要求领导人在本月的欧洲理事会上重申他们对该协定的承诺。


Driving this trend is the sense that globalization has gone too far, and is now squeezing ordinary citizens, while enriching a select few.	这一趋势的推手是人们感到全球化过犹不及，正在挤压普通公民，而受益的只是一小撮人。


And that sense is not unreasonable; some groups do reap higher rewards from economic liberalization while others suffer.	这一感觉不无道理； 一些团体确实在经济自由化中以他人为代价攫取了更高的回报。


But the reality is that free trade, guided by international rules and standards, has a net positive macroeconomic impact.	但现实是，受国际规则和标准指导的自由贸易，其净宏观影响是积极的。


To avoid losing these benefits, much more must be done to recapture public support for growth-enhancing deals like the TTIP.	为了避免错失这些收益，我们需要加大力度重新获取公众对TTIP等增长刺激型协议的支持。


The key will be to smooth out free trade’s negative impacts and prepare societies better for increasing economic openness.	关键是要平稳抵消自由贸易的消极影响，让社会做好准备增进经济开放。


Placing a high priority on support programs – trade adjustment assistance in the US and the European Globalization Adjustment Fund in the EU – with a focus on groups that are negatively affected by agreements is one obvious imperative.	一个显而易见的当务之急是将支持计划——美国的贸易调整援助和欧盟的欧洲全球化调整基金列为重点，注重受贸易协定消极影响的群体。


But these are just stopgaps.	但这只是权宜之计。


Given the fundamental challenges to society posed by the free flow of goods, services, and capital – and compounded by rapid technological progress, most immediately in robotics – structural reforms must also be undertaken.	自由商品、服务和资本流动对社会构成了根本性挑战——并且因为快速的技术进步（最近是机器人）而以及加剧——结构改革必不可少。


One area that will require special attention is education.	一个需要社会予以关注的领域是教育。


With entire industries coming under threat, workers increasingly face the need to switch careers.	在全部行业都受到威胁的情况下，工人面临越来越大的换工作的需要。


In this context, curricula that have defined education for the last half-century must be rethought, with a view toward ensuring that workers are equipped with higher-level “meta-skills” that can be adapted easily to a broad array of industries.	在这样的条件下，过去半个世纪的课程表必须重新设计，一个指导事项是要确保工人具备更高水平的能轻松适应范围甚广的多种行业的“元技能”。


Given the political pushback, there have been rumblings that US and EU leaders will settle on a narrow TTIP, covering only areas where there has already been agreement.	考虑到政治拖累因素，有流言称美国和欧洲领导人将形成一个狭隘的TTIP，只包括已经达成协定的领域。


Such a deal would be a missed opportunity, because the TTIP has the potential to do much more.	这一协议将是一个错过的机会，因为TTIP本有可能实现更多东西。


A TTIP with wider regulatory convergence could facilitate a significant increase in trade.	一个具备更广泛的监管覆盖面的TTIP能够促进贸易的大幅增长。 此外，奠定一个欧盟和美国（GDP分别高达18.


Moreover, a TTIP that establishes a joint project in which the EU and the US (with GDPs of $18.5 trillion and $17.5 trillion, respectively) are essentially equal partners could reinvigorate the bilateral relationship.	5万亿和17. 5万亿美元）从根本上作为平等合作伙伴的联合工程能够重振双边关系。


For Europe, the deal would be even more beneficial, as it would amplify the EU’s voice in global standard setting at a time when it is increasingly being talked over.	对欧洲来说，该协议的好处还要更大，因为它能提高欧盟在全球标准制定方面的话语权，而目前欧盟日益被边缘化。


A limited agreement would not only fail to bring these benefits; it could actually undercut the weight and influence of the transatlantic community, by signaling weakness and ceding rulemaking to other forums.	有限协定不但不能带来这些好处，实际上还会因为尽显弱势和将规则制定事宜让给其他场合而破坏跨大西洋共同体的分量和影响力。


Given current political constraints, developing a TTIP with maximum impact will not be easy, and it will require some creative thinking – like that which facilitated the Paris climate agreement last December.	在当前的政治约束下，让TTIP获得最大影响力绝非易事，需要一些创造性思维——就像去年12月促成巴黎气候协定的那样。


That deal represented a leap forward in how international agreements are made, as it wove together hard rules, non-binding pledges, and overarching frameworks to enable an agreement among 195 countries.	巴黎协议是一次跃进，表明了如何达成国际协定——它兼具硬规则、不具约束力的承诺以及起支配作用的框架，让195个国家达成了协定。


Taking inspiration from this innovative approach, the US and the EU should move on from areas in which they have already agreed on binding standards, and adopt broad principles and frameworks for ongoing negotiations on knottier issues, such as health and food safety.	受这一创新方法的启发，美国和欧盟应该在它们已经达成约束性标准的领域的基础上更进一步，采取广泛原则和框架为后续更艰��的问题谈判创造条件，比如卫生和食品安全。


Such a mechanism is already envisioned in the TTIP, in a proposed chapter on regulatory cooperation, but in an indefinite and limited way.	这一机制已经体现在TTIP中——TTIP有一个关于监管合作的方案章节——但定义模糊，也十分有限。


While an approach that rests more heavily on non-binding cooperation would have a weaker immediate impact, it could be the key to overcoming immediate political hurdles, without giving up on the TTIP’s longer-term potential.	更加依赖非约束性合作的方针的即期影响较弱，但它可以成为在不必放弃TTIP长期潜力的情况下克服即期政治障碍的关键。


Furthermore, it could help to reinforce America’s place at the forefront of international rulemaking, while propelling Europe back to America’s side.	此外，它也有助于增强美国在国际规则制定前沿的地位，并让欧洲回到美国的同一边。


After three years of negotiating, the TTIP is simply not where it needs to be – and, without public support, it never will be.	在经历了三年的谈判后，TTIP完全没有实现应有的成果——并且如果没有公共支持，永远无法实现。


Shifting popular opinion will take a lot more than slick messaging; it will require changes in how trade is conducted and how society adjusts to openness and progress.	改变公众观点要比取巧的口风困难得多； 它需要改变贸易的进行方式和社会适应开放和进步的方式。


That will take time.	这需要时间。


The US and the EU should find a gas station.	美国和欧盟得找到加气站才行。


Building the India-US Partnership	建立印美合作伙伴关系


WASHINGTON, DC – President Barack Obama’s first presidential visit to India offers a unique opportunity to cement a global partnership with a rapidly emerging power. Set to become the world’s third or fourth largest economy by 2030, India could become America’s most important strategic partner.	华盛顿——


In coming decades, a strong bilateral partnership will prove vital in managing the rise of China and promoting an Asian balance of power that is favorable to India, the United States, and Asia as a whole.	奥巴马总统对印度的首次访问为美国巩固与这飞速发展的新兴力量的全球合作伙伴关系提供了良机。


India’s success as a democracy also strengthens freedom globally and protects broader American interests.	将在2030年成为世界第三或第四大经济体的印度可以成为美国最重要的战略伙伴。


Obama has understandably focused on competing priorities, including the troubled US economy and ongoing wars abroad. India’s government has been similarly occupied with domestic political struggles and the challenge of sustaining economic growth amid rising pressure for redistribution.	在未来十年中，坚固的美印关系将在钳制崛起的中国和促进有利于印度、美国及整个亚洲的地区力量均衡中起到关键作用。


Moreover, Indian officials must still nurture the small, albeit growing, constituency that supports a rapidly transformed relationship with the US.	民主的印度之崛起还有利于促进世界自由、保护更广泛的美国利益。


This trip provides a great opportunity for both sides to reinvigorate a critical relationship.	印度政府情况也差不多，忙于解决国内政治困境和在再分配压力日渐增加的情况下如何维持经济增长的问题。 此外，印度国内要求迅速改变印美关系的呼声尽管很小，但在不断增强，这需要官方安抚。


For its part, the Obama administration should take a number of steps to reaffirm its support for India’s rise, its democratic achievements, and its struggle for security.	奥巴马的印度之行对双方来说都是一次重塑关键关系的良机。 一方面，奥巴马政府需要采取一系列举措表明自己对印度崛起及其民主成就和安全斗争的支持态度。


Notably, the US should reaffirm its support for a larger Indian role in international organizations and help integrate India into the global non-proliferation regime.	特别是，美国应该重申自己支持印度在国际组织中扮演更重要的角色、帮助印度融入全球核不扩散机制。


In this context, the Obama administration should endorse India’s quest for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.	有基于此，奥巴马政府应该支持印度获得联合国安理会常任理事国席位。


Obama should also support India’s membership in key non-proliferation organizations like the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime.	奥巴马还应该支持印度加入关键的核不扩散组织，如核供应国集团（Nuclear Suppliers Group）和导弹及其技术控制制度（Missile Technology Control Regime）。


India, too, must do its part.	另一方面，印度也应该拿出自己的诚意。


It can begin by creating greater opportunities for US firms – including from the nuclear industry – to invest in India’s economic success. It can expand defense cooperation beyond purchases of American-made military equipment by deepening its diplomatic engagement with the US to help find solutions to the difficult problems stemming from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran.	印度可以向美国公司开放更多的投资机会——包括核工业在内，也可以扩大与美国的防务合作，不仅仅只是从美国进口军事装备，而是与美国展开更深层次的外交合作，协助美国解决在阿富汗、巴基斯坦和伊朗遇到的棘手问题。


In short, India’s government should look for ways to sustain America’s interest in India during difficult times.	简言之，印度政府应该寻找困难时期维持美国在印利益之道。


Both countries should consolidate their cooperation in other areas already agreed upon: agriculture, education, health care, energy, and science and technology.	双方都应该在已达成协议的领域巩固合作关系，包括农业、教育、医疗、能源和科学技术等领域。


Obama’s trip offers an opportunity for taking stock, expanding initiatives that have matured, and announcing new projects that will provide global benefits.	双方应该抓住奥巴马访问印度的良机，总结已有成果、扩展到期合作、并开拓新的能使全球受益的合作项目。


The latter include developing an international food security initiative, cooperating to increase vocational training in fragile states, expanding clean-energy research, investing in global disease-detection systems, and collaborating to explore shale-gas extraction.	后者包括建立国际粮食安全机构、合作促进印度弱邦的职业培训、加大清洁能源研究力度、投资全球疾病监测系统、以及合作勘探页岩气。


In addition, the US and India should create innovation partnerships, which would not only yield direct returns to both countries, but would also demonstrate how a strong bilateral relationship can improve the international system.	此外，美国和印度还应该建立创新合作，这不仅可以为两国带来直接收益，还可以建立通过坚固双边关系改善国际体系的榜样。


The US and India should expand cooperation on other multilateral issues as well.	在其他多边问题上，美国和印度也应该扩大合作。


The global economic crisis and new fears of US protectionism have motivated India to rethink its attitude toward the Doha Development Round.	全球经济危机和对最近的对美国保护主义的担忧使得印度开始反思其对多哈回合的态度。


If Obama can weather domestic resistance to new international trade negotiations and modify America’s current position on sectoral tariff reduction by developing countries, the US and India will have an opportunity to break the impasse that has stymied the Doha Round’s successful conclusion.	如果奥巴马能够力排国内抵制新一轮国际贸易谈判之众议，改善美国在发展中国家部门关税减让上的当前处境，美国和印度将有机会使多哈回合绝处逢生，走向成功。


Ultimately, a strong US-Indian partnership is in both countries’ strategic interest.	说到底，坚固的美印合作伙伴关系符合双方战略利益。


Their societies are already intertwined – and will be even more so in the future – by various personal, economic, and social links.	两国在个人、经济和社会关系上早已有了千丝万缕的联系，未来的社会关系还会进一步加深。


Moreover, Obama should resist the urge to approach the bilateral relationship purely in transactional terms, but instead should seek to strengthen India’s long-term capacity to be a productive partner with the US.	此外，奥巴马不应该将美印双边关系的眼光局限在纯粹的交易层面，而应该寻求加强印度作为美国长期生产伙伴的能力。


In short, Obama ought not to ask, “What will India do for us?”, but rather, “Is a strong, democratic and independent India in America’s national interest?”	简言之，奥巴马所要问的问题不是��印度能为我们做什么？ ”而是“强大、民主和独立的印度符合美国国家利益吗？


If the answer to this question is yes – as it should be – then the US should focus on how it can help India’s power continue to grow.	”如果答案是肯定的——应该正是如此——那么美国就应该致力于如何帮助印度增长实力。


By reaffirming the US commitment to aid India’s rise, and by emphasizing America’s fellowship with India, Obama can help bring the two countries together on the basis of shared interests, and move their relationship forward significantly.	通过重申美国力助印度崛起的承诺，强调美国与印度的伙伴关系，奥巴马能够促使两国在共同利益的基础上携手共进，使两国关系向前迈进一大步。


That effort must start now.	奥巴马应该马上行动起来。


Building the Markets We Need	建立我们所需要的市场体系


VIENNA – The greatest challenge of the current global financial crisis is the seeming impossibility of comprehending and managing its diversity.	维也纳——当前，在全球金融危机的背景下，我们面临的最大的挑战在于，我们无法控制它的复杂性和多样性。


Indeed, the way problems are proliferating appears almost uncontrollable.	实际上局面几乎已经失控。


Plans to meet the crisis, in country after country, have been revamped and restructured time and again.	各个国家对此而采取的应对政策不断作出调整。


The old models about how to understand the economy have had their day.	过去的一些惯用做法已经过时。


Across the globe, governments are facing fundamental decisions about the future nature of their economies and societies.	对于这场波及全球范围的危机，各国政府都在临着新的挑战，社会和经济的发展究竟何去何从。


The sub-prime crisis in the early summer of 2007 developed first into a financial crisis and ultimately into a recession.	一切都起源于2007年夏天爆发的次贷危机，先是衍变为金融危机，而后导致经济萧条。 老的问题还没有解决，新的问题接踵而至。


New economic problems soon rushed in to add to the existing ones: energy and food prices rose and then fell like a yo-yo; the dangers of climate change became ever more clear; and the mal-distribution of global political power demanded action.	食品能源的价格先涨后跌，仿佛是在坐过山车。 全球气候变暖的问题日益突现。


The recent social unrest in Greece, Latvia, and Lithuania has shown that political stability is now vulnerable even in the European Union.	目前，在希腊，拉托维亚，立陶宛等国出现了社会动荡，看来连欧盟的内部都出了问题。


Indeed, around the world, from Mexico to Indonesia and even China, the social fabric is being stretched to the point of fraying.	放眼全球，从墨西哥到印度尼西亚，乃至在中国，社会的张力随时可能断裂。


This anxiety is reinforced by the general lack of funds among large groups of people who had nothing to do with creating today’s crisis but are bearing the pain of it.	最倒霉的是那些失去财富的大批无辜者，他们不是这场危机的始作俑者，而却只能默默地承受。 普遍焦虑的情绪不断攀升。


These social anxieties are not being addressed because financial-sector bailouts, stimulus packages, and help for distressed industries with strong lobbies are testing many governments’ financial limits.	目前，社会的矛盾还没有最终爆发。 原因在于：伴随着利益团体的游说，政府为了挽救危难中的行业，不断推出对金融机构的拯救方案及经济刺激计划。


That the advocates of unconditional privatization are now crying out for state support would be cause for cynical laughter if the danger were not as big as it is.	这同时也在考验着政府的财政极限。 那些整天叫嚷私有制万岁的人士现在又要向政府求救，真是有点可笑，难道问题真的有他们所说的那么严重么？


For the brutal question governments must now face is this: is there an alternative to the Icelandic crash course?	目前政府面临的最大问题是：是否有方法避免冰岛那样的国家破产？


In the past, when state economic decision-making reached such an impasse, wars and/or revolutions were the inevitable result.	以往，一旦国家的经济出现崩盘，内部的革命和对外的战争不可避免。


As we face the type of turning-point decisions not seen since the darkest days of the 1930’s, can we avoid such an outcome?	如今，我们正面临着1930年代以来最具有历史决定性的时刻，我们能够避免历史悲剧重演么？


If we are to avoid the worst, fundamental change is not only necessary, but unavoidable. So politicians everywhere must do their duty and exercise responsible leadership.	如果要想避免那样最坏结果，各国的政治家们都要担当起各自的责任，根本性的改变就变得刻不容缓。


A combination of steely calm and bold experimentation is the only way that political and social harmony will be preserved.	社会政治稳定需要那些具有钢铁般的意志加上大胆的革新实验的政治领袖。


To make the European Central Bank a lender of last resort for all of the euro-zone countries, for example, would give distressed European governments some added breathing space.	对欧元区国家来说，欧洲中央银行或许是他们最后的避难所。 危难中的欧盟国家得以暂时的喘息。


But it will require global monetary reform of a fundamental order to right the imbalances between surplus and deficit countries, between happy savers and those who lived beyond their means, and between rich and poor.	为了解决贸易顺差和逆差之间，借贷与负债之间，贫穷与富裕之间的不平衡。 全球范围内货币政策上的根本性变革在所难免，


Achieving this will not come without suffering.	解决危机的过程会是痛苦的。


Some of those who brought the world to this perilous point with their toxic financial instruments and unscrupulous speculation may even turn out to profit from these reforms.	对于那些制造有毒资产的金融机构和贪婪无度的投机者来说，反而有可能因此而得益。


So be it: a moral, and perhaps legal, reckoning must await the return of economic growth.	所以，从道德，甚至可以从法律的角度来说，对他们的清算应该放在经济好转以后。


As governments move into uncharted territory, they will need to question themselves constantly.	当政府进入了他们不可知领域的时候，他们必须时刻提醒自己。


All assumptions will need to be assessed and reassessed, starting points found and re-found, and new tools developed and perfected.	所有的假设要慎之有慎，反复权衡，新的办法要不断修改，以求完美。


The mechanics of the welfare state will need to be strengthened; public policy must stop deferring to the financial sector, regardless of the need for bailout packages.	社会大众的福址是首选，对金融机构的利益要推后考虑。


As governments embark on their necessary and bold experiments, they must remember to take their citizens with them.	当政府进行必要的改革和大胆的实验时，国民的利益要牢记心中。


For, unless these experiments in economic rejuvenation are transparent, they will lead to domestic political fights.	一旦振兴经济的计划暗箱操作，政局的动荡将不可避免。


There is a wide difference between pragmatic and opportunistic politics, and governments had better keep this distinction in mind in the months and years ahead.	务实和投机的政策有着本质的不同，政府必须时刻牢记。


That domestic transparency and pragmatism will need to be carried over into international economic diplomacy.	政策透明性和务实性也适用于外交领域。


For, unless today’s global imbalances are redressed, the next crash will be upon us before we have recovered from this one.	除非我们解决全球贸易不平衡问题，不然灾难会接踵而来。


Today’s globalized markets need rules that take into account the public good in every country and region of the world. That much is clear.	当今全球��的市场需要制定规则，同时兼顾到世界各国的不同的宗教和国家利益，这点已经很清楚。


But the decision we are actually faced with is much more fundamental: global monetary and economic reform, or war and revolution.	目前我们要做的事情是全球货币和经济上的根本性变革，如果解决不好，革命和战争就在所难免。


Twenty years after the world supposedly reached “the end of history,” we are instead at another historical turning point.	在福山推出的“历史的终结者论”的20年之后，我们又站在了历史的转折点上。


Either we will write this history ourselves, or we will suffer through a dark era that could have been avoided.	要么创造历史； 要么进入一个黑暗时代，或许我们可以避免。


Rouhani’s Lost Chance	鲁哈尼的失去的机会


ISTANBUL – Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s charm offensive has stalled.	伊斯坦布尔—伊朗总统鲁哈尼的魅力攻势陷入了瓶颈期。


It worked well in the United Nations General Assembly last September, when he had something solid to offer – a deal on his country’s nuclear program – raising hopes that Iran’s hardline foreign-policy stance would finally soften.	去年九月，鲁哈尼的魅力攻势在联合国大会上大放异彩，当时他可以提供实实在在的东西——关于伊朗核计划的协议——让人们认为伊朗的强硬外交政策立场终于要软化了。


But UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s withdrawal of Iran’s invitation to the Geneva II conference on Syria suggests that Rouhani will need more than charm – or even a visit by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Tehran – to end his country’s isolation.	但联合国秘书长潘基文没有邀请伊朗参加关于叙利亚问题的日内瓦II会议，这表明鲁哈尼需要更多的魅力——甚至需要土耳其总理埃尔多安访问德黑兰——来结束伊朗的孤立。


Rouhani has been largely successful in putting his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s tone-deaf leadership firmly in the past.	鲁哈尼在摆脱其前任内贾德死硬立场的影响方面是成功的。


The Iranian establishment has supported his attempts to open the country up to its regional neighbors, court foreign investment, call for moderation in religious and cultural matters, and even pursue the nuclear deal with the West.	伊朗体制支持他对地区邻国开放国家、吸引外国投资、呼吁宗教和文化调和甚至追求与西方达成核协议的尝试。


In fact, the nuclear agreement – which seems close to completion – is likely to be Iran’s most important diplomatic achievement since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, providing it with considerable relief both domestically and internationally.	事实上，目前已接近完成的核协议可能是伊朗自1979年伊斯兰教革命以来最重要的外交成就，伊朗国内和国际社会都因此获益良多。


The fact that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei personally backed the effort makes it all the more promising.	最高领袖哈梅内伊也表示了个人支持这一事实让人们看到了更多的希望。


Nonetheless, the regime’s possible rapprochement with the United States remains a source of concern in the Middle East, because it would empower Iran at a time when the US is gradually disengaging from the region.	但是，伊朗政权与美国恢复邦交的可能仍然是中东地区的一大关注点，因为这意味着伊朗实力的增强，而与此同时，美国正在退出该地区。


The question now is whether Rouhani’s moderation toward the West will be accompanied by a change in Iran’s Middle East policy, with all eyes on its policy toward Syria.	现在的问题是鲁哈尼对西方的温和态度是否会伴随着伊朗中东政策的变化，所有人都盯着伊朗的叙利亚政策。


Ban rescinded Iran’s invitation to Geneva II under pressure from the US and the Syrian opposition.	美国和叙利亚反对派的压力导致伊朗没有获得日内瓦II的入场券。


After all, since the civil war began in 2011, Iran has provided essential financial and military support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, while mobilizing its Lebanese proxy, the powerful Hezbollah militia, to fight against the rebels in Syria.	毕竟，自2011年叙利亚内战爆发以来，伊朗为叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权提供了重要的金融和军事支持，同时还动员其黎巴嫩代理人、强大的真主党武装力量在叙利亚与起义军作战。


Whatever concerns the opposition has about Iran’s allegiances, the country is undoubtedly part of the Syrian equation; indeed, its involvement is critical to reaching any accord.	不管反对派如何担心伊朗的忠诚度，伊朗都毫无疑问是叙利亚平衡的一端； 事实上，没有它的加入，就不可能达成任何协议。


But Rouhani’s failure to make a decisive statement on Syria – even after a series of leaked photographs of systematic torture and massacre raised the ire of the international community – has not helped the case for keeping Iran in the fold.	但鲁哈尼没有就叙利亚问题发表决定性声明，即使在一系列漏出照片证明了叙利亚存在系统性虐待和屠杀并且引起了国际社会的公愤的情况下伊朗仍不表态，这对伊朗的处境非常不利。


Rouhani recently had an opportunity to discuss Iran’s stance.	最近，鲁哈尼得到了讨论伊朗立场的机会。


But, addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos, he squandered it, sticking to platitudes about the need for governments in the region to listen to their citizens and provide young people with “jobs and hope.”	但是，在达沃斯世界论坛演讲时，他没有把握这一机会，而是说了些中东地区各国政府应该倾听人民的声音、为年轻提供“工作和希望”之类的陈词滥调。


On the subject of despotic rulers, Rouhani offered only the benign observation that they lack the ability to connect with and understand their people.	在暴政问题上，鲁哈尼只是轻描淡写地观察道暴君们没有能力联系和理解他们的人民。


Rouhani’s recent rhetoric, however positive, falls far short of the expectations that his diplomacy has raised since his UN address last September.	鲁哈尼的最新发言虽然意义积极，但远远没有满足其去年9月的联合国演讲所带来的国际期望。


In Davos, the world expected a decisive statement on Syria and other regional problems – not hackneyed nationalist rhetoric about eliminating “biases” against Iran.	在达沃斯，世界期望它能够就叙利亚问题和其他地区问题做出决定性表态，而不是消除对伊朗的“偏见”这样的民主主义老掉牙话题。


Rouhani must have known that his failure to address the humanitarian disaster in Syria would damage his diplomatic strategy, which suggests that he must have had a strong reason.	鲁哈尼必须知道，他没有处理好叙利亚的人道主义灾难会伤及其外交政策这表明他一定有充分的理由。


Two possibilities stand out: either there is no consensus within the Iranian elite for a policy change, or the elite remain united in their determination to continue backing Assad.	两种可能性最大：要么伊朗精英内部完全没有政策变化的共识，要么伊朗精英仍下定决心要继续支持巴沙尔。


Neither alternative is particularly charming, which would explain why he preferred to obscure his country’s position.	两种可能性都毫无魅力可言，这也解释了为何他在伊朗立场问题上语焉不详。


To be sure, Erdoğan’s visit to Tehran this week could help to defuse tensions over Syria – a subject on which Turkey and Iran have diametrically opposing views.	平心而论，埃尔多安本周的德黑兰之旅能够帮助消弭叙利亚的紧张局势——在这个问题上，土耳其和伊朗的立场是完全相反的。


But it is unlikely to smooth the divisions among Iran’s elite, much less convince hardliners to stop backing Assad, leaving the visit’s significance uncertain, at best.	但这不可能缓和伊朗精英之间的分歧，更不能说服强硬派支持巴沙尔，其访问德黑兰的重要性也颇可商榷。


In refusing to take a strong position on Syria, Rouhani – like so many other world leaders – is placing his own interests above those of the 2.3 million registered Syrian refugees, the millions more who have been internally displaced, the estimated 130,000 people killed, and the rest of Syria’s long-suffering population.	鲁哈尼（和其他许多世界领导人一样）拒绝在叙利亚问题上采取强硬立场，把自身利益凌驾于230万在册叙利亚难民、数百万在国内颠沛流离的叙利亚人、约130,000死难者以及其他饱受长期痛苦的叙利亚人民之上。


Worse, he has refused to acknowledge Iran’s own role in the tragedy.	更糟糕的是，他拒绝承认伊朗在这场悲剧中所扮演的角色。


When he said in Davos, “we cannot be indifferent to the pain and suffering of our fellow brethren in the region,” he might as well have been referring to the Assad regime and its partners in crime.	当他在达沃斯说“我们不能漠视我们的同胞在该地区经受痛苦和苦难煎熬”时，他或许已经在暗示巴沙尔政权及其合作伙伴的罪恶。


What Syria needs is not rhetoric or charisma; it needs action.	叙利亚需要的不是言语和魅力； 叙利亚需要行动。


Iran appears incapable of providing it.	伊朗似乎无力采取行动。


That is why Rouhani’s charm offensive will not be enough to persuade Iran’s adversaries that the Islamic Republic is ready to come in from the cold.	正因如此，鲁哈尼的魅力攻势将不足以让伊朗的对手相信这个伊斯兰共和国已准备从冷漠中走出。


The Gulf States’ Widening Gulf	海湾国家变宽的海湾


ISTANBUL – President Barack Obama is arriving in Saudi Arabia at a critical moment for the country.	伊斯坦布尔—奥巴马总统在沙特阿拉伯处于关键时刻时来到了这里。


Its recent decision to withdraw its ambassador from Qatar has revealed the gravity of the crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), composed of the Kingdom’s most immediate neighbors.	沙特阿拉伯最近决定召回驻卡塔尔大使，凸显出海湾合作委员会（GCC）危机的严重性。 GCC成员都是沙特王国的近邻。


Indeed, Gulf politics is shifting toward a new balance in the wake of the Saudi-UAE rapprochement and the recent attempt to isolate Qatar.	事实上，随着沙特-阿联酋的重新建交以及最近孤立卡塔尔的举动，海湾政治正在向新的平衡转变。


The UAE and Bahrain have joined Saudi Arabia in downgrading relations with Qatar.	阿联酋和巴林加入沙特阿拉伯的行列，降低了与卡塔尔的关系级别。


This is an unusual move, considering the Gulf states’ tradition of treating political disagreements as a family matter, to be handled behind the scenes.	此动作不同寻常，因为海湾国家向来把政治分歧作为家事，怎样处理不会昭告天下。


Oman is keeping its distance from the situation, while Kuwait has attempted to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.	阿曼一直与此局面保持距离，而科威特试图在沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔之间调停。


Several factors are driving Saudi Arabia’s moves against Qatar, which include a ban prohibiting Saudi intellectuals from contributing to Qatari newspapers.	几大因素促使沙特阿拉伯走向卡塔尔的对立面，并且禁止沙特知识分子在卡塔尔报纸上发表文章。 这些因素有：卡塔尔支持（埃及和其他地区的）穆斯林兄弟会；


There is Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood (in Egypt and elsewhere); the speeches by the Islamic theologian Yusuf al-Qardawi and the broadcasting policy of Qatar-funded Al Jazeera since the Arab Spring; and the credence given to the view that Qatar is hosting Western institutions with the intent of orchestrating a coup in the Kingdom.	伊斯兰教神学家卡达维（Yusuf al-Qardawi）的演讲和卡塔尔出资的半岛电视台在阿拉伯之春后的节目政策； 以及证据表明卡塔尔接纳了某些试图在沙特王国组织政变的西方机构的观点并非子虚乌有。


That view reflects Saudi Arabia’s tough stance against the Muslim Brotherhood, which it has declared a terrorist organization.	这一观点反映出沙特阿拉伯对穆斯林兄弟会（沙特称其为恐怖组织）的强硬立场。


The Kingdom perceives the Brotherhood’s influence in Arab countries, particularly the Gulf states, as a serious threat to its internal stability and survival.	沙特王国认为穆兄会在阿拉伯国家、特别是海湾国家的影响力构成了其内部稳定和生存的严重威胁。


The voluntary abdication by Qatar’s Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani in June 2013, and his replacement as Emir by his son Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, failed to satisfy Saudi expectations of change in Qatari foreign policy.	卡塔尔酋长阿勒萨尼（Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani）在2013年6月自愿退位，他的埃米尔之位由其子塔米姆（Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani）继承，但这并未满足沙特对卡塔尔改变外交政策的期望。


And now the Kingdom has made it clear that it has reached the limits of its patience.	如今，沙特王国清楚地表明，它的耐心已经到了极限。


But Saudi Arabia’s attitude toward Qatar may generate some difficulties for its own policy.	但沙特阿拉伯对卡塔尔的态度可能给其自身政策带来一些困难。


There is considerable transnational movement of goods and services, and billions of dollars of cross-border investment, across the Gulf – economic activity that would be endangered by the GCC’s further disintegration.	海湾国家之间有大量跨国商品和服务流动和数十亿美元的跨境投资——GCC的进一步分裂将威胁到这些经济活动。


The Muslim Brotherhood is not a violent organization, and it has not engaged in illegal activities in the Gulf countries.	穆斯林兄弟会不是一个暴力组织，也没有参与海湾国家的非法行动。


Other GCC states, eager to avoid escalating political tensions in their own countries, are unlikely to declare it a terrorist organization.	其他GCC国家迫切地希望避免自身政治紧张局势升级，也不可能宣布其为恐怖组织。


Even Saudi Arabia’s special relationship with Jordan will not push its government to adopt such a declaration.	甚至沙特阿拉伯与约旦的特殊关系也无法让后者做出如此宣布。


For the time being, harsh policies toward the Muslim Brotherhood are likely to be confined to Egypt and Saudi Arabia.	随着时间的推移，针对穆斯林兄弟会的严厉政策将有可能只局限于埃及和沙特阿拉伯。


The problem for the Kingdom is that simply “correcting” the Qatari position cannot change the political trajectory within the region – particularly in Syria and Egypt.	沙特王国的问题在于，简单地“纠正”卡塔尔的立场无法改变地区内的政治轨迹——特别是叙利亚和埃及。


Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s imposition of its preferred policies on the GCC, together with the possibility of sanctions on Qatar, risks jeopardizing all that the GCC (which already has fallen into political decline in the wake of the Arab Spring) has achieved over the past 33 years.	此外，沙特阿拉伯将其自身偏好的政策强加于CCC，并且可能对卡塔尔采取制裁，这有可能危害到GCC在过去33年中取得的成就。 （自阿拉伯之春爆发以来，GCC便走上了政治衰落之路。


Although Qatar’s rulers are concerned about the Kingdom’s growing antipathy toward them, they have shown no indications of submitting to Saudi demands that they change course.	尽管卡塔尔统治者担心沙特王国日益对其感到厌恶，但并未表现出任何屈从于沙特的改变要求的信号。


Moreover, given the impact on regional geopolitics of the recent interim nuclear deal between Iran and the West, Saudi Arabia’s alienation of its neighbors is all the more hazardous.	此外，考虑到最近伊朗和西方所达成的过渡性核协议对地区地缘政治的重大影响，沙特阿拉伯与其邻国的疏远就更加危险了。


Making matters worse, it is clear that disagreements within the GCC can no longer be resolved behind closed doors, and that member states are unable to air them publicly without risking a diplomatic rupture.	更糟糕的是，显然GCC内部的分歧不再能够藏着掖着，其成员国也无法在不引起外交纠纷的情况下将分歧公开化。


Across the region, minorities are feeling more empowered and citizens are making ever-stronger demands for better government.	在整个地区，少数族裔的实力越来越强，人民也越来越多地要求改善治理。


There is a burgeoning desire for a future that dispenses with traditional policies based on fear and anger.	要求未来摒弃基于恐惧和愤怒的传统政策的呼声越来越响。


In this context, Saudi policy seems to be stuck in the past, and the Kingdom has chosen to adopt a strategy of self-help in order to isolate itself from problems outside its borders, though it continues to regard itself as the region’s power broker.	在这样的背景下，沙特还死抱过去的政策不妨，选择了自助战略，将问题关在国界之外，尽管它仍自视为地区实力中介。


The sudden rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE resulted not from the attractiveness of Saudi policy, but from their rulers’ shared perception that there is a dearth of political options.	沙特阿拉伯与阿联酋之间突然间恢复邦交原因并��沙特政策具有吸引力，而是两国统治者都感到已无多少政治选择余地。


It would, of course, be wiser to address the real problems facing GCC governments, which range from embittered minorities to economies that are unable to create enough jobs for young people.	当然，更明智的办法是解决GCC政府面临的真正问题，包括怨声载道的少数族裔、无法为年轻人创造足够就业机会的经济等。


But resolving these issues would require an inclusive and accommodating approach, both domestically and regionally, and Saudi Arabia, in particular, is not prepared to take that route.	但解决这些问题需要包容性、适应性的方针，并且需要国内外双管齐下，而沙特阿拉伯显然还没有做好准备。


The Gulf impasse will exacerbate the already-fragile situation in the Middle East.	海湾僵局将进一步恶化已然十分脆弱的中东局势。


Regional political realities, transnational interaction, and the common search for a better future should, eventually, prevail over policies geared for repression, discipline, and order.	地区政治现实、国家间相互影响以及对美好未来的共同追求最终应该战胜为了镇压、纪律和秩序的政策。


The GCC should be accustomed to conflicting perspectives on regional design and differing degrees of cooperation across regional actors, and it should draw on these differences as a source of strength.	GCC应该习惯于面对地区安排的相互冲突的前景和地区行动方之间不同程度的合作，并且应该将这些差异视为优势之源。


This crisis may create an opportunity to rethink and recalibrate GCC strategies, based on a more realistic view of regional interdependence, common security, and shared decision-making.	这场危机或许能够创造一次反思和改变GCC战略的机会，以更现实的地区互赖性、共同安全和共同决策观点为基础。


A new mentality in GCC governance could result in the creation of mechanisms of constructive engagement in the region, while maintaining cooperation with international actors.	新的GCC治理观念可以带来地区内建设性参与的机制，同时保持与国际行动方的合作。


Clearly, this policy would be more constructive than Saudi Arabia’s desire for a lone-wolf role that merely results in a deadlock within and around the Gulf.	显然，这一政策比沙特阿拉伯所追求的的独狼角色更有建设意义，后者只能在海湾地区内部和周边制造僵局。


Bulgaria’s Betrayal of Europe	保加利亚对欧洲的背叛


When Bulgaria joined the European Union this past January, I believed that my country had finally left its repressive past behind.	当保加利亚在去年一月加入欧盟时，我相信我的国家最终远离了它压制的过去。


But the recent arrest and threatened deportation of Annadurdy Hadjiev, a dissident from Turkmenistan who sought refuge here, suggests that some things never change.	但最近对在该国寻求避难的土库曼斯坦持不同政见者Annadurdy Hadjiev的逮捕和威胁驱逐出境的事件说明有些事情还是没有改观。


If Bulgaria sends this man back to Turkmenistan – where he faces certain torture and the threat of a brutal death – our claim to be part of a democratic, rights-respecting Europe will ring hollow.	如果保加利亚将此人遣送回土库曼斯坦—在那里他将会面临某种折磨和死亡威胁—我们口口声声说自己是民主、尊重人权的欧洲的一部分的话也成为空谈。


Moreover, the EU’s image as a defender of human rights around the world will be tarnished by its inability to hold member states to its own standards.	另外，欧盟在全世界的人权卫士形象也会因为它不能让成员国坚持自身的标准而黯然失色。


The case evokes memories of the days when the KGB’s influence was pervasive, and dissidents across Eastern Europe and Soviet lands like Turkmenistan lived in fear.	这一案件勾起了人们对克格勃的影响力无处不在的那个时代的回忆。 那时整个东欧和如土库曼斯坦这样的苏联土地上的持不同政见者都生活在恐惧之中。


Hadjiev and his family fled to Europe in 2001, escaping one of the world’s most repressive regimes: the absolutist dictatorship of the late Saparmurat Niyazov, who fancied himself “Turkmenbashi,” the father of all Turkmen.	Hadjiev和他的家人在2001年逃到欧洲，以躲避世界上最严酷的政权之一：已故的，自诩为“Turkmenbashi（土库曼之父）”的Saparmurat Niyazov的专制主义独裁政权。


A former deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Turkmenistan and later an outspoken critic of Turkmenbashi’s government, Hadjiev, a senior member of the exiled Watan (Republican) Party, received “humanitarian parole” – a protected category of individuals that falls short of refugee status – when he reached Bulgaria.	作为曾担任土库曼斯坦中央银行副行长以及一位后来直言不讳批评Turkmenbashi政府的人士，被流放的资深共和党人Hadjiev在到达保加利亚时得到了“人道入境(humanitarian parole)”的待遇—一个低于难民地位的保护类别。


But he has since been subjected to violent and arbitrary reprisals in this supposed “safe haven.”	但从那时起，他就在这个本应是“安全岛”的地方一直遭受着激烈而任意的攻击。


And, although Turkmenbashi died in December, his successor, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, has continued to imprison dissidents, stifle freedom of expression, and scoff at democracy, as February’s rigged elections demonstrate.	虽然Turkmenbashi在去年十二月死去，他的继任者Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov继续关押持不同政见者，遏制言论自由，并嘲弄民主，正如他在二月份舞弊的选举中所表现的那样。


Bulgaria’s persecution adds to the anguish and injustice that has befallen Hadjiev and his family.	保加利亚的迫害更加重了Hadjiev及其家人身上遭受的痛苦和不公正。


Last summer, Hadjiev’s brother and sister were arrested after they collaborated on a documentary about Turkmenistan, and were tried on trumped-up charges of weapons possession.	去年夏天，Hadjiev的兄弟和姊妹在参与了一部关于土库曼斯坦的纪录片拍摄之后被捕。 随后又以大鸣大放的持有武器罪名受到审判。


After a perfunctory closed trial, they were sentenced to seven and six years in prison, respectively.	经过了一场敷衍的关门庭审之后，他们分别被判入狱七年和六年。


Hadjiev’s sister, the journalist Olgusapar Muradova, died in prison several weeks later, under suspicious circumstances.	Hadjiev的姊妹，新闻记者Olgusapar Muradova几周后在可疑的情况下死于狱中。


Her grown children, who viewed her body, told relatives that they saw evidence of torture and that she had sustained a severe head wound.	探视过她遗体的成年子女告诉亲戚他们看到了折磨的痕迹，并且她还遭受了头部的重伤。


(A state-controlled autopsy implied that she had committed suicide.)	（国家控制的尸检显示她是自杀。


Hadjiev’s two other brothers, as well as his brother-in-law and sister-in-law, have been in Turkmenistan’s notorious penal gulag since 2002, when they were sentenced to lengthy prison terms.	）Hadjiev的另外两个兄弟，以及他的内兄/内弟，和弟媳/兄嫂自2002年开始就被关押在土库曼斯坦臭名昭著的刑事集中营长期服刑。


In 2003, his elderly father-in-law was beaten by police agents and forced into internal exile.	2003年，他年迈的岳父也被警方特工殴打，并被迫内部流放。


On February 19, the Bulgarian police arrested Hadjiev with the intention of sending him back to face a similar fate.	在二月十九日，保加利亚警方逮捕了Hadjiev，企图将其遣送回国面对同样的命运。


This is not the first time he has been arrested in Bulgaria.	这不是他第一次在保加利亚被捕。


After first arriving, Hadjiev and his wife were arbitrarily detained for several days, leaving their 13-year-old daughter without supervision or access to her parents.	在进入保加利亚之初，Hadjiev和他的妻子也被武断地关押了几天，留下他们13岁的女儿无人照看，也见不到父母。


The police arrested Hadjiev again in 2002, in response to a Turkmen extradition request.	应土库曼的一个引渡请求，警察在2002年再一次逮捕了Hadjiev。


After the Varna City Court refused to allow the extradition, ruling that the charges were politically motivated, the Bulgarian authorities threatened to deport him.	在瓦纳城法院以指控出于政治目的拒绝引渡请求后，保加利亚当局就威胁将他驱逐出境。


In 2005, the Hadjievs’ car was incinerated by a bomb-like device, which they interpreted as a warning to cease their defiant challenges to the Bulgarian – and possibly Turkmen – authorities.	在2005年，Hadjiev一家的汽车被一种类似于炸弹的装置烧毁。 他们将此事件解释为让其停止对保加利亚—及可能对土库曼—当局的挑战的警告。


The authorities that arrested Hadjiev last month made no pretense of due process: they offered no arrest warrant, and have repeatedly refused him access to relatives and legal counsel.	上个月逮捕Hadjiev的部门连走形式的正当程序都没有执行：他们没有出示逮捕令，并一次次拒绝他见亲友和律师。


Moreover, the court has given no explanation of why it is allowing him to be tried on the same embezzlement charge that of which he was acquitted in 2003.	另外，法庭也没有就为什么允许他再次以早在2003年就已澄清的挪用（公款）罪名受审做出解释。


Fortunately, Hadjiev is a fighter.	所幸的是，Hadjiev是一名战士。


Since the beginning of his travails in Bulgaria, he has battled the system by confronting the government branches responsible for his persecution.	从他在保加利亚的艰难困境一开始，他就以与负责迫害他的政府部门对抗的方式来与这个制度抗争。


Indeed, he has sued the very prosecutor in whose hands his current extradition now rests – an act that may be jeopardizing his right to a fair hearing.	的确，他已经对负责自己引渡案的起诉人提起诉讼—这一行动可能会影响他获得公平听证的权利。


My government has pledged its willingness live up to the legal norms that are the core of European Union membership.	我国的政府承诺自发地实践作为欧盟成员国核心要求的法律规范。


By releasing Annadurdy Hadjiev from jail and withdrawing the threat of extradition to Turkmenistan, Bulgaria would unequivocally demonstrate its commitment to fulfilling its obligations.	通过释放Hadjiev并收回将其引渡回土库曼斯坦的威胁，保加利亚可以明确地显示其对履行自身义务的承诺。


By granting him political asylum, we can make a resounding statement that authoritarian regimes can no longer count on support within Europe’s borders.	通过给予他政治避难，我们可以做出一个响亮的声明：独裁政权在欧洲的疆界内再也得不到支持。


Twin Tests for the EU	欧盟的双重考验


MUNICH – June is shaping up to be a fateful month for the European Union.	慕尼黑—6月份堪称决定欧盟命运之月。


On June 21, the German Constitutional Court will rule on a challenge to a bond-buying program that is central to the European Central Bank’s response to the continent’s debt crisis.	6月21日，德国宪法法院将对针对欧洲央行债券购买计划的上诉进行裁决。 债券购买计划是欧洲央行应对欧洲债务危机的核心政策。


Two days later, voters in the United Kingdom will decide whether the UK should exit the EU.	两天后，英国选民将决定英国是否应该退出欧盟。


Both decisions will have serious consequences for the EU’s long-term political and economic stability.	这两项决定将对欧盟的长期政治与经济稳定带来严重后果。


The judgment by the German court is the less spectacular of the two, but it addresses the heart of the ECB’s interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty.	在这两项决定中，德国法院的裁决不太引人关注，但它直指欧洲央行对马斯特里赫特条约的解释的核心。


The plaintiffs, who include members of the Bundestag, have questioned whether the Bundesbank should be allowed to participate in the ECB’s outright monetary transactions (OMT) program, arguing that it violates Articles 123 and 125 of the EU Treaty, which they claim forbids government bailouts with the printing press.	原告包括德国下议院诸位议员，他们质疑德国联邦银行是否应该被允许参与欧洲央行的直接货币交易（OMT）计划，认为这违反了欧盟条约的第123条和第125条。 他们宣称，这两条禁止政府动用印钞机进行援助行为。


In particular, they have objected to the ECB’s unlimited commitment (“whatever it takes,” in ECB President Mario Draghi’s famous phrase) to the purchase of crisis-hit countries’ government securities.	特别是，他们反对欧洲央行购买危机受袭国政府债券的无限之承诺（用欧洲央行行长德拉吉的名言讲，就是“不惜一切代价”）。


Under the OMT program, investors who buy such securities no longer need to worry about a potential default.	根据OMT计划，购买这些债券的投资者不需要再担心可能的违约。


Before the risk of bankruptcy presents itself, the ECB will be available to buy the endangered securities off investors’ portfolios.	在破产风险显现之前，可以要求欧洲央行购买投资者投资组合中的危险证券。


All that is required is an application to the European Stability Mechanism, a fund capable of providing rapid financial assistance to all members of the eurozone.	所需要的只是应用欧洲稳定性机制（European Stability Mechanism，能够为所有欧元区成员国提供快速金融援助的基金）。


As a result, the risk of bankruptcy is transferred from the bondholders to taxpayers in economically healthy eurozone countries, who would permanently lose interest income on the government bonds.	如此，破产风险从债券持有人转移到了经济较为健康的欧元区国家的纳税人身上，他们将永久失去政府债券的利息收入。


The question before Germany’s Constitutional Court is whether that arrangement, which has already received the blessing of the European Court of Justice, is compatible with the country’s Basic Law – specifically, whether OMT undermines the Bundestag’s budgetary authority.	摆在德国宪法法院的问题是这个已经获得欧洲法院认可的安排是否违反了的国际本法——即，OMT是否破坏了德国联邦银行的预算主权。


This is not a question that the ECJ can decide.	这不是欧洲法院可以裁定的问题。


There are two reasons why the court is likely to impose conditions on the Bundesbank’s participation in the OMT program.	有两个理由认为德国宪法法院可能对德国联邦银行参与OMT计划施加条件。


The Bundesbank is said to have consulted the court already regarding the ECB’s program of quantitative easing, and the court is reported to have called for the effective exclusion of joint liability of central banks for government-bond purchases under that program.	据说德国联邦银行已向德国宪法法院咨询欧洲央行航的量化宽松计划，而德国宪法法院据说要求有效排除各央行在根据该计划进行的政府债券购买操作中的连带责任。


Furthermore, the court’s preliminary opinion expressed suspicion that the ECB might be overstretching its mandate.	此外，德国宪法法院初步意见认为欧洲央行的权责可能延伸过度了。


If the court follows this line of reasoning and rules against the Bundesbank’s participation in the OMT program, the decision would cause the interest-rate spread between healthy and crisis-hit economies to widen, reflecting the true risk to investors.	如果德国宪法法院遵循这一思路，裁决德国联邦银行不得参与OMT计划，该裁决将导致健康经济体和危机受袭经济体利差的扩大，从而反映真正的投资者风险。


That would put an end to some pipe dreams, but it would also mean taking a step toward strengthening accountability and put the eurozone back on the path to hard budget constraints, without which no economic system can survive.	这将终结某些人的白日梦，但也意味着增加可问责性，让欧元区回归预算硬约束之路，而预算硬约束是经济体系生存的根基。


The second decision, regarding the UK’s membership in the EU, could be even more consequential.	第二项决定，即英国的欧盟成员资格问题，可能引起更大的后果。


The vote is one more convulsion in a long history of tumultuous relations between the UK and the rest of Europe.	此次公决是英国和欧洲其他国家漫长而波动的关系史的又一次起伏。


The UK joined the European Economic Community, the predecessor to the EU, in 1973, on its third attempt, after French President Charles de Gaulle vetoed its applications in 1963 and 1967.	英国于1973年加入欧盟的前身欧洲经济共同体，此前它在1963年和1967年两次申请加入，但都被法国总统戴高乐否决。


But the relationship was strained from the outset.	但英国与欧洲的关系从一开始就很不自然。


Powerful resistance in Britain to the conditions for joining led to a referendum on membership in 1975.	英国国内存在对加入欧盟条件的强大的抵制力量，导致了1975年的成员资格全民公决。


The majority of UK voters opted for staying in.	大部分英国选民选择了留在欧盟。


After Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979, she appeased skeptics by negotiating special conditions for Britain.	1979年撒切尔夫人上台执政后，通过为英国争取特殊条件的方式向怀疑派让步。


But the euro crisis in recent years has revived skepticism about Europe.	但近几年来的欧元危机让欧洲怀疑派重新振兴。


The UK may have been only marginally involved in financing the EU’s response to the crisis, but fears are mounting in the UK that the country and its taxpayers will one day have to bail out southern European countries and EU banks.	英国只是边缘性地参与了欧盟的危机响应，但英国人日益担心英国及其纳税人总有一天将不得不援助南方的欧洲国家和欧盟银行。


At the same time, the European refugee crisis has begun to fray British nerves.	与此同时，欧洲难民危机开始触动英国的神经。


Under Thatcher, and Prime Minister Edward Heath before her, the UK put a stop to easy immigration from the Commonwealth.	在撒切尔夫人以及她的前任希斯治下���英国叫停了宽松的英联邦移民政策。


Today, the fear is that the country is at risk of a new wave of immigration from the EU.	如今，英国人担心英国有可能面临来自新一波欧盟的移民。


Undecided voters worried about the risks of “Brexit” are likely to provide the margin needed to keep the UK from leaving.	担心“英国退出”风险的犹豫不决的选民或能为阻止英国脱离欧盟提供必要的选票。


But the referendum nonetheless has exposed the EU’s serious shortcomings and its leaders’ inability to present a credible and convincing strategy for addressing the challenges facing the continent.	但全民公决仍暴露出欧盟严重的缺陷以及欧盟领导人无力拿出可信而有说服力的战略解决欧洲所面临的挑战。


Whatever the outcome of the two decisions in June, one thing is clear: The era of unconditional trust in the EU and its institutions has come to an end.	不管6月的两项决定结果如何，有一点是清楚的：无条件信任欧盟及其机构的日子已经结束了。


Burma’s Agony	缅甸之痛


As the death toll mounts from the cyclone that struck a densely populated area of Burma stretching from the Irrawaddy Delta to the capital city of Rangoon continues to soar, the country’s military dictatorship is pressing ahead with efforts to consolidate its power.	当袭击了从伊洛瓦底江三角洲到首都仰光的人口稠密地区的热带风暴持续肆虐并且死亡人数不断增多之时，缅甸的军事独裁统治仍然不停的努力以巩固其权力。


The junta leaders have done little to facilitate recovery efforts in the wake of the disaster.	军政府领导人在灾难之后为推动恢复重建做的工作非常少。


Indeed, they have announced their intentions to move forward with conducting a national referendum scheduled for Saturday to approve a new constitution, which they hope will entrench their power for decades to come.	他们甚至还公布了通过在星期六的全民公投来批准一部新宪法以继续巩固其权力的意图，他们希望这部宪法能在未来的几十年里继续确认和保护他们的权力。


Burma’s rulers have said that the vote will be delayed in the areas hardest hit by the cyclone until May 24, but the referendum will still go ahead as planned in other parts of the country.	缅甸的统治者们已经宣布在受灾严重的地方投票可以推迟到五月二十四日，但是在该国的其他地区全民公投仍然按原计划进行。


With this move, the military leaders are putting their sham vote aimed at tightening their repressive grip on power ahead of the well being of the Burmese people.	随着这一活动的进行，军事领导人把他们用来增强其压迫权力的虚假投票放在了缅甸人民的健康福祉之前的位置上了。


This should be no surprise.	这其实没什么好奇怪的。


For nearly five decades, Burma’s military rulers have systematically undermined the interests of their own citizens.	在近五十年的时间里，缅甸的军事统治者已经系统地损害了他们自己的民众的利益。


In this latest case, the junta-controlled news media failed to announce warnings about the approaching cyclone.	在最近的例子里，由军政府控制的新闻媒体没有对正在向缅甸逼近的热带风暴给予警告。


The entry of United Nations humanitarian personnel, has been delayed due to the government’s refusal to allow aid workers into the country without first applying for visas.	联合国人道主义人员进入缅甸的时间也被推迟了，因为缅甸政府拒绝他们在没有申请签证之前进入该国。


Moreover, the military leaders are dragging their feet on easing restrictions on the import of humanitarian supplies and allowing a UN assessment team into the country.	而且，军事领导人还通过不放松对人道主义救援物资的进口和联合国灾害评估小组进入该国的限制来拖他们的后腿。


Some have urged focusing attention on bringing relief efforts to Burma instead of criticizing its government.	有些人已经强烈要求将注意力放在对缅甸实施救援而不是批评它的政府上。


But the reality is that the two issues are connected and the magnitude of the disaster has been made worse by the junta’s single-minded objective of preserving its power.	但是事实是这两个问题相互关联，并且灾难的程度因为军政府一心想要保存它的权力而变得更加严重。


The military leaders have shown that they can mobilize their forces in short order when they want, as evidenced by their violent crack down on thousands of monks and political activists last year.	军事领导人已经显示在他们需要时，他们可以迅速地动员军队，这一点已经为去年他们暴力镇压成千上万的和尚和政治激进分子的行动所证实。


More than seven months on from this brutal suppression, political activists continue to be imprisoned and tortured.	在这次残酷镇压后超过七个月的时间里，政治激进分子不断的被关押和拷打。


Human rights groups report that opponents of the junta's proposed constitution have been beaten and intimidated in advance of the vote.	人权团体的报告称，在本次投票之前，已经有异议人士因为反对军政府提出的宪法而遭到殴打和威胁。


The current pro-military constitution lacks credibility because Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who has spent 12 of the past 18 years under house arrest or in prison, and other democratic and ethnic minority leaders have not been allowed to participate in the drafting process.	缅甸现行的支持军事领导的宪法缺乏可信性，因为昂山素季——诺贝尔和平奖获得者，在过去18年里有12年是处于软禁或监狱中，和其他民主和少数民族领导人没有被允许参与到该法的起草过程中。


Additionally, the new constitution would effectively bar Suu Kyi, from running for president because she was married to a foreigner.	而且，因为素季和一个外国人结婚了，新宪法将有效的禁止她竞选总统。


As the only international actor in direct dialogue with both Burma's generals and Suu Kyi, the UN is in a position to press for a genuine process of national reconciliation.	作为既可以和缅甸的将军们又可以和素季直接对话的唯一的国际参与者，联合国有机会推进真正的国家和解进程。


But it’s current approach is not working.	但是它现在的方法并不起作用。


To date, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has been addressing the crisis through the use of his "good offices," with Ibrahim Gambari serving as his representative to Burma’s rulers.	到目前为止，联合国秘书长潘基文已经通过他的“调停”来关注危机，并任命易卜拉欣·甘巴里作为其对缅甸统治者的代表。


In his March 2008 briefing to the UN Security Council, Gambari reported that his most recent visit to the country was "frustrating" and acknowledged that no tangible progress was made.	在2008年3月份给联合国安理会的简报中，甘巴里报告说他对缅甸最近一次的访问“令人沮丧”并且承认没有取得任何实质性的进展。


He was denied meetings with senior government leaders, representatives of ethnic minorities and political opposition groups.	他没有被允许参加与政府高级官员，少数民族代表以及政治反对派的会谈。


The outcome was a major step backward.	这样的结果就是局势重大的退步。


This lack of progress is less a reflection of Gambari's capabilities  than of the fact that he has not been empowered by the countries that  hold the most leverage over Burma’s rulers, including China, India, and  Burma's ASEAN neighbors.	这种没有进展的情况与其说反映了甘巴里的能力，还不如说他还没有取得对缅甸统治者有重大影响的国家的授权，这些国家包括中国，印度和缅甸的东盟邻国。


The "good offices" approach is effective when  the weight of the world is behind it and, put simply, Gambari has not  been given the clout he needs.	当影响力足够大的时候，“调停”的方法是有效的，简单的说，甘巴里还没有取得他需要的影响力。


Since the countries that carry the  most sway with the junta also have strong commercial interests in Burma,  we should not expect any of them to step up and take the lead on their own.	由于对军政府有重大影响的国家在缅甸也有重要的商业利益，我们不能期望它们中的任何一个站出来并且带头独立采取行动。


As Secretary-General, Ban has lived up to his self-styled vision of being the consummate diplomat, and has made some important gains in tackling the UN's bureaucratic bloat as well as dealing with the Middle East.	作为联合国秘书长，潘基文已经实践了他自称的成为完美外交官的理论，并且在遏制联合国官僚机构膨胀和中东问题上都取得了很大的进展。


But on other issues, Ban has failed to live up to the critically important precedent set by his predecessor as Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, who transformed the position to promote human rights and assumed the role of the "world's conscience" when necessary.	但是在其他问题上，潘基文没能实践其前任科菲安南在担任联合国秘书长时期创设的重要的先例，科菲安南把这一职位的任务变成推进人权以及在必要时起到“世界良心”的作用。


Burma’s deterioration demands that Ban stop managing and begin to lead.	缅甸形式的恶化要求潘基文停止其调停者的角色而开始承担领导者的角色。


He should begin by demanding that  Burma's government fulfill its responsibility  to protect the country’s citizens and condemn the use of violence and repressive tactics.	他应该开始要求缅甸承担其保护国民的义务并且谴责其利用暴力和压迫策略的行径。


Given the Burmese generals' hard line stance to date, it will likely prove to be necessary for Ban to go to Burma to meet face-to-face with its leaders.	假设缅甸的将军们迄今为止一直保持强硬的姿态，这可能说明潘基文有必要到缅甸与其领导人进行面对面的会谈。


One idea is to pressure the generals to agree to multiparty talks based on the North Korean model-an, approach that Ban helped to forge from his days as South Korea’s Foreign Minister.	本文给出这样一个观点：潘基文可以根据北朝鲜模式——他从开始担任韩国外交部长起就努力建立的模式，向将军们施压，以使他们同意多党会谈。


While the world watches, Burma's generals are consolidating their tyrannical rule as hundreds of thousands of the cyclone’s survivors remain in desperate need of shelter, clean drinking water and medical care.	虽然有国际社会的关注，但是缅甸的将军们依然在成千上万的热带风暴幸存者急切需要住所，清洁的饮用水和医疗护理的时候，加强他们的残暴统治。


The situation demands the Secretary-General’s direct involvement.	现在的情形需要联合国秘书长的直接介入。


Without it, the junta will continue to have a free hand to act against the human rights of the Burmese people.	否则，军政府将继续不受约束的侵犯缅甸人民的人权。


Burma’s Drug Lord Generals	缅甸的毒枭将军


The news blackout imposed by Burma’s military junta on its decision to forego its turn as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year shows that it has received a severe blow to its prestige.	缅甸军政府封锁其决定暂时放弃担任明年东盟(ASEAN)主席国的消息，表明其声望受到了沉重的打击。


Indeed, the decision was far from voluntary.	的确，这一决定并非出于自愿。


Junta leader Senior General Than Shwe “lost face” and promptly disappeared from public view so completely that some Burmese thought he had died.	军政府首脑Than Shwe将军“颜面尽失”并立刻消失在公众视线当中，以至于有的缅甸人认为他已经死了。


The protagonists that pressured the regime into relinquishing the ASEAN chair were not the usual Western human rights campaigners, but Burma’s closest ASEAN neighbors.	施压让执政当局放弃东盟轮值主席国之位的主角们却不是通常的西方人权活动分子，而是与缅甸最近的东盟邻国。


This must have made the retreat doubly painful for the generals, as ASEAN was previously one of the junta’s strongest shields against international pressure.	对于军政府的将军们来说，这一点使得他们的退却痛苦得犹如伤口上撒盐。 因为此前，东盟一直是缅甸抵御国际社会压力的最坚实的挡箭牌之一。


For ASEAN, the episode was a lesson in assertiveness.	对东盟而言，这一事件是过度自信带来的教训。


It showed that persistent pressure works better than the “constructive engagement” that it had pursued, to no avail, for the eight years since Burma joined the organization.	它表明持续不断的压力比其自缅甸加入东盟以来的八年里所追求的徒劳的“建设性接触”要有效。


This shift has been led by an embryonic grouping of elected regional parliamentarians known as the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Caucus on Democracy in Myanmar (AIPMC), of which I am a member.	这一转变的领导者是一个被称作“东盟国会议员缅甸民主小组” (AIPMC)的，由该地区当选国会议员组成的，刚成立不久的组织。 我也是其成员之一。


Established last November to spur progress on democratization in Burma, parliamentarians from Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Cambodia took the unprecedented step of crossing national and party lines to review critically ASEAN policy on Burma, seek the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, and disqualify Burma from chairing.	该组织成立于去年10月，旨在加速缅甸的民主化进程。 来自泰国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和柬埔寨的国会议员们，以前所未有的姿态跨越了国家和政党的界限，来评估东盟对缅政策，寻求昂山素季的释放并剥夺缅甸的轮值主席国资格。


Now, we will move for the suspension of Burma’s membership of ASEAN unless Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners are released and clear progress towards democracy is made through negotiations involving the Aung’s National League for Democracy and representatives of the various ethnic groups.	除非缅甸当局释放昂山素季和其他政治犯并在民主化方面采取明晰的步骤。 其具体的措施就是举行有包括昂山领导的全国民主联盟和各民族团体代表参加的谈判。


As elected legislators in ASEAN’s established and budding democracies, the members of AIPMC feel that our voices have merit and legitimacy.	作为东盟已经建立或成长中的民主国家的当选立法者，AIPMC的成员们认为我们的声音是公正而合法的。


We know that Burma’s political destiny is inextricably linked to that of our own countries.	我们深知缅甸的政治命运和我们自己国家的密不可分。


When Burma joined ASEAN in 1997, there were only 210,000 Burmese refugees and asylum seekers throughout the region.	当缅甸在1997年加入东盟时，在整个地区只有21万名缅甸难民和寻求政治避难者。


Now, nearly one million people have fled Burma’s political and economic chaos for neighboring countries, and another million people remain internally displaced.	而现在，有近100万人已从缅甸的政治和经济混乱中逃到了邻国，还有一百万人在缅甸国内处于颠沛流离的状态。


Our youth are at an all-time high risk of drug addiction from the massive flow of narcotics, particularly amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS), from Burma, while the generals there maintain congenial ties with notorious drug lords.	我们的年轻人从大量流入的，以安非他明类兴奋剂(ATS)为主的麻醉品中染上毒瘾的风险正处于历史最高点。 而这些毒品的源头正是缅甸，那里的将军们和毒枭沆瀣一气。


In mid-September, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime admitted that Burma and China were the world’s top producers of ATS.	9月中，联合国毒品与犯罪办公室承认缅甸和中国是世界上最大的ATS制造国。


Amphetamine drugs produced in eastern Burma seem to be transported with such ease that significant quantities have been found in northeast India, on Burma’s western border.	产自缅甸东部的安非他明类毒品的运输是如此便利，以至于它们在印度东北部及缅甸的西部边境上大量出现。


That, together with the heroin that is trafficked from Burma to India, China, Thailand, and other countries in the region, poses a serious threat to our political and economic security.	这些毒品，再加上从缅甸运输到印度、中国、泰国和该地区其他国家的的海洛因，对我们的政治和经济安全造成严重威胁。


It is both tragic and inevitable that the areas of India and China bordering Burma now suffer from those countries’ highest concentration of drug addiction and HIV infection., My own country, Thailand, receives up to 900 million amphetamine pills from Burma every year, and about a third of our regular drug users are below the age of 16.	具有悲剧性，同时也不可避免的是印度和中国与缅甸接壤的地区成为上述国家毒瘾和HIV感染最集中的地区。 我自己的国家，泰国，每年从缅甸接收多达9亿片的安非他明，我国经常性毒品使用者中，有三分之一的年龄在16岁以下。


If this is the impact on Thailand, what about the young people and children of Burma, who have been restricted from access to education, information, and health care?	如果这只是对泰国的影响，那么缅甸那些被限制接受教育、信息和医疗服务的青少年和儿童的情况又会怎样呢？


It is scandalous that drug lords enjoy more freedom to operate than aid agencies, while basic access to food, education, and health care suffers many restrictions, with up to 70% of Burma’s children are chronically malnourished in some border areas.	令人震惊的是，毒枭们享受的自由远大于援助机构，而同时对食品、教育和医疗保健的基本保障却被制肘。 在缅甸的边境地区，多达70%的儿童长期营养不良。


Indeed, in August, World Food Program Executive Director James Morris revealed that the WFP had delivered only 430 tons of the 5,500 tons of rice earmarked for vulnerable people in Burma’s northern Arakan State because of restrictions imposed by the regime.	的确，在8月，世界粮食计划署执行主管詹姆斯·莫里斯透露，由于当局的限制，该署只将专供缅甸北部Arakan省的5500吨救济粮中的430吨送到了该地。


Two weeks later, the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria pulled its funding for programs in Burma, citing government restrictions that had created “an impossibly difficult environment.”	两周以后，“全球HIV/AIDS、肺结核和疟疾基金会”宣布从其缅甸项目中撤资，并指出政府的限制人为制造了“一种极度困难的环境”。


Preventing aid from reaching those in need is bad enough.	阻止援助被送到急需支援的人们手中已经是罪大恶极。


But Burma’s regime actually perpetuates conditions that sustain and worsen the HIV/AIDS epidemic by restricting access to counseling, medication, and other support services.	然而，缅甸当局还通过限制咨询、用药和其他支持服务使在该国肆虐的HIV/AIDS的情况极度恶化。


In order for HIV/AIDS programs to be effective and sustainable, affected communities must have the freedom to organize and empower themselves.	为了使HIV/AIDS项目有效并可持续，受影响的社团必须能够自由地自我组织并加以应对。


Only then can they be assured access to the resources essential for treatment options.	只有这样，才能够确保他们得到对于治疗异常重要的足够资源。


Aung San Suu Kyi’s eloquent plea, “Please use your liberty to promote ours,” has special resonance for us in AIPMC, who enjoy the benefits of representative democracy.	昂山素季“请用你们的自由来促进我们的自由”的打动人心的请求，在我们享受着民主代表制度的AIPMC成员中激起了特别的反响。


This is why we feel obligated to call on the highest levels of the international community – including the UN Security Council – to address the question of Burma, for we must show that we are serious about peace, democracy, and human rights.	这就是为什么我们觉得有义务号召国际社会的最高层—包括联合国安理会—来��决缅甸的问题。 因为我们必须表明对和平、民主和人权的严肃态度。


The courageous people of Burma, like people everywhere around the world, deserve what far too many of us take for granted.	勇敢的缅甸人民和全世界人民一样，理应得到那些被我们太多的人看成理所当然的权利。


Burma’s Turn	缅甸转型


YANGON – Here in Myanmar (Burma), where political change has been numbingly slow for a half-century, a new leadership is trying to embrace rapid transition from within.	仰光—如今，在政治变迁停滞了半个世纪的缅甸，新的领导层正在试图进行由内而外的快速转型。


The government has freed political prisoners, held elections (with more on the way), begun economic reform, and is intensively courting foreign investment.	政府释放了政治犯，举行了选举（后续还会有更多选举），开始了经济改革，并开始大规模向外部投资示好。


Understandably, the international community, which has long punished Myanmar’s authoritarian regime with sanctions, remains cautious.	不难理解，长期以来对缅甸的独裁机制进行着制裁的国际社会依然对缅甸保持谨慎的态度。


Reforms are being introduced so fast that even renowned experts on the country are uncertain about what to make of them.	缅甸的改革来的太迅猛，即便是最著名的缅甸专家也无法确定该国会何去何从。


But it is clear to me that this moment in Myanmar’s history represents a real opportunity for permanent change – an opportunity that the international community must not miss.	但在我看来，显然，缅甸现在正处于永久变革的良机，国际社会不能坐视这次机会溜走。


It is time for the world to move the agenda for Myanmar forward, not just by offering assistance, but by removing the sanctions that have now become an impediment to the country’s transformation.	世界应该为缅甸制定前景日程，不仅仅是提供援助，更要取消现在已成为阻挠缅甸转型的制裁。


So far, that transformation, initiated following legislative elections in November 2010, has been breathtaking.	到目前为止，2010年11月立法选举以来的转型已经称得上令人瞩目。


With the military, which had held exclusive power from 1962, retaining some 25% of the seats, there were fears that the election would be a façade.	军方（自1962年以来一直大权独揽）保留了25%的席位，因此人们担心此次选举只是一场闹剧。


But the government that emerged has turned out to reflect fundamental concerns of Myanmar’s citizens far better than was anticipated.	但是选举产生的政府在反映缅甸公民基本诉求方面的表现要远好于人们的预期。


Under the leadership of the new president, Thein Sein, the authorities have responded to calls for a political and economic opening.	在新总统吴登盛的领导下，缅甸当局回应了政治和经济开放的呼声。


Progress has been made on peace agreements with ethnic-minority insurgents – conflicts rooted in the divide-and-rule strategy of colonialism, which the country’s post-independence rulers maintained for more than six decades.	与少数民族叛军的和平谈判取得了进展——此类冲突的根源可以追溯到殖民地时期的分割统治策略，在独立后的60余年里，缅甸统治者也延续了这一策略。


The Nobel laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was not only released from house arrest, but is now campaigning hard for a parliamentary seat in April’s by-elections.	诺贝尔和平奖获得者昂山素季不但被解除了软禁，还开始全力争取在4月的补选中问鼎议会席位。


On the economic front, unprecedented transparency has been introduced into the budgetary process.	在经济领域，预算过程引入了前所未有的透明度。


Expenditures on health care and education have been doubled, albeit from a low base.	卫生和教育支出实现了翻番（尽管基数很低）。


Licensing restrictions in a number of key areas have been loosened.	大量关键领域的执照控制也有所放松。


The government has even committed itself to moving towards unifying its complicated exchange-rate system.	政府甚至还承诺统一其复杂的汇率体系。


The spirit of hope in the country is palpable, though some older people, who saw earlier moments of apparent relaxation of authoritarian rule come and go, remain cautious.	希望精神在缅甸随处可见，但老一辈缅甸人目睹着集权统治不断地放松-收紧，对这一次仍然心存疑虑。


Perhaps that is why some in the international community are similarly hesitant about easing Myanmar’s isolation.	这或许也是国际社会对放松孤立缅甸犹豫不决的原因。


But most Burmese sense that if changes are managed well, the country will have embarked on an irreversible course.	但大部分缅甸人认为，如果变革能够得到很好的管理，那么缅甸将进入不可逆转的转型过程。


In February, I participated in seminars in Yangon (Rangoon) and the recently constructed capital, Naypyidaw, organized by one of the country’s leading economists, U Myint.	2月份，我参加了缅甸知名经济学家吴敏丹（U Myint）在仰光和新建首都内比都举行的讨论会。


The events were momentous, owing both to large and actively engaged audiences (more than a thousand in Yangon), and to the thoughtful and moving presentations by two world-famous Burmese economists who had left the country in the 1960’s and were back for their first visit in more than four decades.	这两次讨论会不可不谓盛大，参与听众既多又活跃，两位20世纪60年代离开缅甸、40余年后首次回国著名缅甸经济学家做了既深刻又动人的演说。


My Columbia University colleague Ronald Findlay pointed out that one of them, 91-year-old Hla Myint, who had held a professorship at the London School of Economics, was the father of the most successful development strategy ever devised, that of an open economy and export-led growth.	我的哥伦比亚大学同事罗纳德·芬德雷（Ronald Findlay）指出，两位经济学家之一、91岁高龄的伦敦经济学院教授拉敏（Hla Myint）是有史以来最成功的发展战略的提出者，即开放经济、刺激出口导向增长。


That blueprint has been used throughout Asia in recent decades, most notably in China.	近几十年来，这一战略在亚洲得到了广泛的应用，最显著的便是中国。


Now, perhaps, it has finally come home.	如今，终于轮到他的祖国了。


I delivered a lecture in Myanmar in December 2009.	2009年12月，我在缅甸做讲座。


At that time, one had to be careful, given the government’s sensitivities, even about how one framed the country’s problems – its poverty, lack of rural productivity, and unskilled workforce.	当时，身居缅甸需要如履薄冰，因为政府对你如何界定该国的问题——即使是贫困、农业生产率低下、劳动力素质不高这样的问题——颇为敏感。


Now caution has been replaced by a sense of urgency in dealing with these and other challenges, and by awareness of the need for technical and other forms of assistance.	如今，怀疑早已被抛到了九霄云外，取而代之的求贤若渴——缅甸政府急切地想知道如何应付上述三项及其他挑战，也明自己需要技术和其他形式的援助。


(Relative to its population and income, Myanmar is one of the world’s smallest recipients of international assistance.)	（从人口和收入水平看，缅甸是世界上接受国际援助最少的国家之一。 ）


There is much debate about what explains the rapidity of Myanmar’s current pace of change.	关于缅甸近期改变之迅猛的原因还存在颇多争议。


Perhaps its leaders recognized that the country, once the world’s largest rice exporter, was falling far behind its neighbors.	或许其领导人认识到，这个曾经的世界第一大水稻出口国正在落后于邻邦。


Perhaps they heard the message of the Arab Spring, or simply understood that, with more than three million Burmese living abroad, it was impossible to isolate the country from the rest of the world or prevent ideas from seeping in from its neighbors.	或许他们听到了阿拉伯之春的弦外之音。 或许只是因为他们明白了，在300万缅甸人侨居海外的情况下，想让国家孤立于世界、防止信息从邻国渗入国内是不可能完成的任务。


Whatever the reason, change is occurring, and the opportunity that it represents is undeniable.	不管原因为何，变革实实在在地发生着，变革所带来的机会也是不容置疑的。


But many of the international sanctions, whatever their role in the past, now seem counterproductive.	但是，大量国际制裁——不管在过去起到了什么作用——现在看起来已是适得其反。


Financial sanctions, for instance, discourage the development of a modern and transparent financial system, integrated with the rest of the world.	比如，金融制裁抑制了透明的现代金融体系的发展，阻止了缅甸融入世界的步伐。


The resulting cash-based economy is an invitation to corruption.	由此产生的基于现金的经济不啻于催生腐败的温床。


Likewise, restrictions that prevent socially responsible companies based in advanced industrial countries from doing business in Myanmar have left the field open to less scrupulous firms.	类似地，限制来自发达工业国的更有社会责任心的公司在缅甸开展业务为投机倒把者开启了方便之门。


We should welcome Myanmar’s desire for guidance and advice from multilateral institutions and the United Nations Development Program; instead, we continue to limit the role that these institutions can play in the country’s transition.	我们应该欢迎缅甸对来自多边机构和联合国开发计划的指导和建议的渴求； 但是，在实际中，我们却在继续束缚这些机构在缅甸转型方面所能施展���拳脚。


Whenever we withhold assistance or impose sanctions, we need to think carefully about who bears the burden in bringing about the changes that we seek.	每当我们拒绝给予援助或坚持施加制裁时，我们就应该再三思考，是谁在给我们所寻求的变革制造障碍。


Opening up trade in agriculture and textiles – and even providing preferences of the kind that are offered to other poor countries – would likely benefit directly the poor farmers who make up 70% of the population, as well as create new jobs.	开放农业和纺织品贸易——即使只是开放提供给其他贫穷国家的品种——能够为占缅甸人口70%的贫困农民带来直接的好处，还能创造就业机会。


The wealthy and powerful can circumvent financial sanctions, though at a cost; ordinary citizens cannot so easily escape the impact of international-pariah status.	富贵阶层能够绕过金融制裁，无非略有破费而已； 而普罗大众要想摆脱国际二等公民的影响就没有那么容易了。


We have seen the Arab Spring blossom haltingly in a few countries; in others, it is still uncertain whether it will bear fruit.	我们看到，阿拉伯之春的花朵在一些国家顽强地绽放着； 但另一些国家中，我们还不能确定花朵会变成果实。


Myanmar’s transition is in some ways quieter, without the fanfare of Twitter and Facebook, but it is no less real – and no less deserving of support.	缅甸的转型从某种程度上来说称得上悄无声息，没有在Twitter和Facebook上引起热烈关注，但其真实程度并不亚于阿拉伯之春，也和阿拉伯之春一样值得国际社会予以支持。


Bush Inherits the Wind	布什收拾残局


The most shocking statement in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was President George W. Bush’s remark that “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees” that protect New Orleans from flooding.	卡特林娜飓风之后最为令人惊讶的言论当属美国总统乔治·沃克·布什所言：“我想没有人预想到会决堤”。 这些堤坝保护新奥尔良免受洪涝之灾。


New Orleans is a city mostly below sea level, and must be protected by levees to keep water out.	新奥尔良市的大部分位于海平面以下，必须由堤坝将大水御于城门之外。


Concern that the levees might break in the midst of a powerful hurricane was widespread among scientists, engineers, and emergency-preparedness experts.	众多科学家、工程师以及紧急情况准备专家们早就担心堤坝会在强飓风中决堤。


Yet Bush apparently did not know of these concerns, even days after the hurricane destroyed the levees and flooded the city.	但是，布什显然并不知道这些担忧，在飓风摧毁堤坝、淹没城市之后几天后依然不知道。


There is a simple fact on display here, one that goes well beyond this particular hurricane, and even this particular president.	一个简单的事实有目共睹，这一事实超越这场特定的飓风本身，甚至超越这一特定的总统。


There is a deep disconnect in American politics between scientific knowledge and political decisions.	美国政治中，科学知识和政治决策严重脱节。


Bush bears much responsibility for this.	布什应为此承担大部责任。


He has proven to be one of America’s least knowledgeable presidents when it comes to science – and one of the most ready to turn science into a political issue.	在有关科学的问题上，布什是最为无知、最能把科学问题转变为政治化的美国总统之一。


In recent months, Bush undermined biological theories of evolution in favor of Christian fundamentalist dogmas.	近来数月内，布什损害进化论的生物理论，倡导基督教原教旨主义教条。


He disdains climate science and public health science when it conflicts with the beliefs – and interests – of his core supporters.	当气候科学和公共健康科学与其核心支持者的信念和利益冲突之时，他嘲讽前者。


Simply put, Bush’s record on science policy is miserable.	一言以蔽之，布什的科学政策记录惨不忍睹。


Climate scientists have warned for years that global warming caused by manmade emissions of greenhouse gases will generate more extreme storms.	气候科学家多年来警告人为温室气体排放造成的全球气候变暖将导致更为剧烈的风暴。


While there is no scientific way to link a particular hurricane such as Katrina to the long-term trend – in the sense that Katrina might have been bad luck rather than a sign of manmade climate change – the energy of hurricanes throughout the world has been rising markedly.	卡特林娜飓风可能时运不佳，而非人为气候变化迹象。 尽管没有科学的方法将某一场特定的飓风，例如卡特林娜飓风同长期趋势联系在一起，但是，全世界的飓风能量已经显著增加。


Bush, alas, led an aggressive effort to discredit climate science rather than to respond to its findings.	布什不仅没有对气候科学的发现作出反应，反而大力主导各种势力证明对气候科学不可信以为真。


He called for delays in reducing greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, which in turn causes the energy of hurricanes to rise.	对于导致全球气候变暖、进而使得飓风能量上升的温室气体排放，他呼吁延缓降低。


According to the underlying science that Bush ignores, hurricanes take their energy from the warmth of seawater. That is why hurricanes occur in hot tropical regions, and at the end of the summer months, when the sea surface temperatures are at their annual maximum.	根据布什所不予理会的基本科学，飓风从于海水的热度汲取能量，所以飓风发生在炎热的热带地区，并且在夏末，此时海平面温度达到全年最高。


Manmade global warming raises not only air temperatures, but sea-surface temperatures as well.	人为全球变暖不仅提高空气温度，而且提高海平面温度。


Higher sea-surface temperatures translate into more powerful storms in the world’s oceans.	海平面的高温转化为世界海洋上更为猛烈的风暴。


Hurricanes are measured according to three dimensions: frequency, intensity, and duration.	根据三项指标衡量飓风：频率、强度和持续时间。


The frequency of hurricanes has not changed much, if at all.	飓风的频率即使有变化也是不多。


The big changes are in hurricanes’ intensity and duration.	飓风的强度和持续时间则变化明显。


Intensity measures a hurricane’s force, which includes wind speeds, and there has been some recorded increase.	强度衡量包括风速在内的飓风的力量，强度增加有记录可查。


The biggest change, however, has been in the duration of hurricanes: how many days each hurricane lasts.	最大的改变则是飓风的持续时间，也就是每场飓风持续的天数。


Duration has risen markedly around the world.	世界范围内，飓风的持续时间显著增加。


The total energy of a hurricane is found by multiplying the intensity of the hurricane by its duration.	一场飓风的强度乘以其持续时间为其总能量。


This, too, has risen sharply, and more is in store as temperatures rise.	总能量也大幅上升，而且随着温度上升，能量也随之上升。


Scientists and engineers who work on climate change stress that governments need to adopt two main responses.	研究气候变化的科学家和工程师们强调政府应当采纳两种主要的应对措施。


The first, called “mitigation,” means reducing the amount of manmade climate change.	第一个称为“减缓”，也就是降低人为气候变化的数量。


This can be done by changing the world’s energy system to limit emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – the main driver of manmade climate change.	这一点可以通过改变世界能源体系、限制人为气候变化的主要驱策力二氧化碳排入大气层做到。


One option is a shift to non-carbon energy sources, such as renewable energy (solar and wind power) and nuclear energy.	其中一项选择是转向非碳能源，例如可再生能源（太阳能和风能）以及核能。


Another option is to combine carbon-based energy (coal, oil, and gas) with new technologies that prevent the emission of airborne carbon.	另一项选择是将碳基能源（煤炭、石油和天然气）和新技术相结合，防止碳的空中排放。


The second response to climate change, called “adaptation,” requires that we ready ourselves for the climate change now underway and the increased climate change to come in future years.	应对气候变化的第二个措施称为“适应”，要求我们为正在发生的气候变化以及未来年间要发生的更大的气候变化做好准备。


This means preparing for hurricanes that are more powerful in both intensity and duration.	这意味着准备对付强度更大、持续时间更长的飓风。


An attentive national government would surely have realized that the Gulf region of the United States is more vulnerable to high-energy hurricanes.	一个勤政的联邦政府早应认识到美国的海湾地区尤为容易受到强飓风的袭击。


Indeed, Hurricane Katrina was the third most intense hurricane ever to make landfall in the US.	实际上，卡特林娜飓风是有史以来在美国登陆的第三大强飓风。


Such a government would have taken more action to strengthen levees.	勤政的政府理应采取更多的行动加固堤坝。


The Bush administration’s negligence is especially shocking given the remarkable amount of scientific expertise that exists in the US.	鉴于美国的高度科学专业水准，布什行政当局的疏忽尤为令人惊讶。


Somehow, scientists have been pushed aside by political operators.	不知如何，科学家被政治运作者所排挤。


But the US government’s failings are matched in many parts of the world, and certainly in the poorest countries, where scientific expertise is scarce, and where many governments do not have scientific advisory councils to turn to for guidance.	但是，美国政府的失职行为世界各地均有，而且肯定在最贫困国家，那里的科学专业水准低下，众多政府并无科学咨询机构可以寻求指导。


Hurricane Katrina is a wakeup call, not only for the US but for the world.	卡特林娜飓风对于美国和全世界而言都是警示之钟。


We are entering a period when good science is vital for our survival.	我们正进入一个良好的科学对于我们的生存而言至关重要的时期。


On a crowded planet with threats to our climate, oceans, forests, food production, and water supply, and with global travel and high population densities increasing the risk of worldwide disease epidemics, we must turn to the best of our scientific and engineering knowledge to find a safe passage.	我们的地球人口拥挤，威胁充斥于我们的气候、海洋、森林、粮食生产以及水供应，全球旅行和高人口密度增加了世界范围疾病传染的危险。 我们必须求助于我们最佳的科学和工程知识来找到安全的通道。


Bush Loses in the Supreme Court and America Wins	布什高院败诉，美国获胜


Two rulings of the United States Supreme Court this week rejected the sweeping wartime powers claimed by President Bush.	美国最高法院在这周做出的两项裁定否决了布什总统要求在战争时期得到的压倒一切的权利。


In the case of Yaser Hamdi, the court renounced the Administration's claim that military authorities could indefinitely hold a U.S. citizen as an "enemy combatant" without ever providing him with an opportunity to contest the basis for his detention before a neutral decision maker.	在亚瑟尔·哈姆迪一案中，高院拒绝了布什政府关于军方可以将美国公民作为"敌方战士"无限期拘押的要求。 这种拘押方式从不给被拘押者在中立的裁定者面前为自己被拘押的罪名进行申辩的权利。


And in a case brought by fourteen foreign nationals, the court cast aside the government's argument that because the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay is nominally under Cuban sovereignty, American courts lack jurisdiction to entertain legal claims brought by persons who had no say in where the U.S. military chose to detain them.	在另一件有14位不同国籍的外国公民提起的诉讼中，高院同样驳回了政府的申辩。 美国政府争辩说由于美国关塔纳摩海军基地名义上是在古巴的主权管辖内，所以美国法院无权受理被拘押者提起的诉讼-这些人无权决定美国军方将他们关押在哪里。


Although nowhere mentioned in either case, the scandalous treatment of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib and the revelations that high-level government lawyers prepared confidential memoranda authorizing torture, likely played a part in the Justices' reasoning.	虽然两桩案子都没有提到发生在阿布格勒布监狱的虐囚丑行及美国政府重量级律师们炮制的，授权虐待行为的秘密备忘录，但这两点很可能也是影响法官判决的原因。


The Administration essentially said, "trust us to do what's right."	布什政府曾信誓旦旦地说："相信我们，没错的。


Clearly, the court thought that such trust had not been earned.	"显然，法院认为政府的所作所为并没有赢得信任。


Another unspoken consideration may have been at work in the Guantanamo Bay case, which has garnered considerable international attention.	另一点不言而喻的考虑大概就是吸引了相当国际关注的关塔纳摩湾一案。


In recent years, a majority of the Justices of the Supreme Court have articulated a multilateralist view of American law that stands in marked contrast to the unilateralism of the Bush Administration.	近几年，大多数的美国高院法官都明确表达了美国法律多边主义的观点，这与布什政府的单边主义行为形成鲜明对照。


For example, in a 2002 Virginia case, the high court ruled that the execution of the mentally retarded is forbidden by the American Constitution as "cruel and unusual punishment."	例如，在2002年的弗吉尼亚一案中，高院裁定处决智障犯人是被《美国宪法》所禁止的"残酷而非常规的惩罚方式"。


While most of the Court's analysis focused on domestic considerations, the Justices also invoked a legal brief filed by the European Union that described the overwhelming disapproval of the practice in the world community.	虽然高院对该案的分析主要基于对国内因素的考虑，但法官们同时也援引了欧盟的一份法律纲要，其中描述了国际社会对这种做法的强烈反对。


Likewise, in last year's ruling striking down a Texas prohibition on same-sex sodomy, the Court cited a 1967 Act of the English Parliament and a 1981 ruling of the European Court of Human Rights.	同样，在去年一项撤销德克萨斯禁止同性性行为的法令的裁决中，高院也引用了1967年《英国议会法案》和欧洲人权法庭在1981年的一项裁决。


Significantly, the six Justices in the majority in the Virginia and Texas cases also constituted the majority in the Guantanamo Bay case: the four dissenters from Bush v. Gore plus Ronald Reagan's two relatively moderate appointees, Sandra Day O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy.	颇具意味的是在弗吉尼亚和德克萨斯两案中投多数票的法官同样也在关塔纳摩湾案中持多数意见：他们是在"布什对戈尔"一案中投反对票的4位法官和在里根政府时期被任命的两位相对温和的法官-桑德拉·戴·奥康诺和安东尼·肯尼迪。


These Justices regularly travel to colloquia on comparative constitutional law and see themselves as part of an international community of high court judges.	这些法官定期参加关于比较宪法的研讨会并认为自己是高等法院法官的国际社团中的一员。


It cannot have escaped their notice that to uphold indefinite detention of foreign nationals without judicial process would have made them virtual pariahs on the conference circuit.	他们当然会考虑到如果支持在未经过相关司法程序的情况下对外国公民进行无限期拘押会使自己成为国际司法界被人诟病的对象。


I do not mean to suggest that the Justices decided the Guantanamo Bay case as they did so that they would be toasted at their international cocktail parties.	我并不是在暗示高院法官们如此裁定关塔纳摩湾一案是为了博得国际同僚的赞许。


I contend that their concern for world opinion-if that concern played the role I am suggesting it did-was for their country, not for themselves.	我坚持认为他们对国际舆论的考虑-如果这种考虑如我所料地影响了他们的判决的话-也是为了国家利益而不是个人得失。


In less than four years, President Bush and his advisers have cast aside much of the longstanding bipartisan consensus under which the United States works through and with multilateral institutions like the United Nations.	在不到四年的时间里，布什总统和其顾问们就在很大程度上将长期以来的两党共识抛在了一边。 这种共识是美国与联合国等多边主义机构沟通和合作的前提。


Alarmed by this dramatic volte-face, the majority Justices in the Guantanamo Bay case may be trying to send assurances to the rest of the world that President Bush does not speak for all Americans, not even the ones who put him in office in the first place.	在这种大倒退的警示下，审理关塔纳摩湾一案的大多数法官也许力图向世界表明布什总统并不能为所有的美国人代言。 他甚至不能代表那些一开始让他入主白宫的人的意见。


Of course, neoconservative critics of the high court will see in this explanation the confirmation of their worst fears.	当然，新保守主义的最高法院批评者会发现这样的解释印证了他们最担心的事情。


Here are judges, they will say, who do not understand that they have no legitimate qualifications to act as agents of American foreign policy, a job committed by the Constitution to the President and (they may grudgingly admit) Congress.	他们会说，有的法官不明白他们没有资格做美国外交政策的代理人，这一职能是宪法赋予总统和（他们可能会勉强承认）国会的。


Yet the high court has considered foreign policy implications before.	然而高院以前也曾考虑过外交政策的因素。


In the most celebrated American case of the twentieth century, Brown v. Board of Education, the Justices were probably influenced by a government brief explaining how racial segregation in the southern United States undermined American efforts to compete with the Soviet Union for the hearts and minds of people in developing countries.	在20世纪美国最有名的案例"布朗对教育委员会"的裁决中，高院的法官们很可能就接受了政府关于种族隔离对外交的影响的简要解释。 政府解释说美国南方的种族隔离制度会破坏其与苏联竞争在发展中国家赢得民心民意的努力。


By holding that American apartheid violated the constitutional command of "equal protection of the laws," the court struck a blow for justice at home and American strategic interests abroad.	通过对美国的种族隔离政策违反了"平等的法律保护"的宪法条款的裁决，高院的正义一击对美国国内和其在海外的战略利益产生了重要影响。


To be sure, the Brown precedent is not entirely analogous, for there the Supreme Court gave weight to foreign policy considerations in just the way that the federal executive had urged.	确切地说，布朗案��不具有完全的可比性，因为在该案的裁决中最高法院在联邦行政机构的敦促下着重考虑了外交政策因素。


In the Guantanamo Bay case, by contrast, the Bush Administration argued that a ruling for the detainees would undermine the war effort by diverting manpower and material from the battlefield to the courtroom.	而在关塔纳摩湾一案中，布什政府申辩说有利于被拘押者的判决会使人力和物力从战场上转移到法庭中，从而削弱美国的战斗力。


But the majority opinion of Justice John Paul Stevens paid little heed to the Administration's parade of horribles.	但以大法官约翰·保罗·史蒂文斯为代表的多数派意见对布什政府的恐怖预告并不在意。


A decorated World War II veteran, Justice Stevens may well have thought that he was at least as qualified as the civilians in the Bush Justice Department to forecast the impact of the court's ruling on military efficiency.	作为二战的功勋老兵，史蒂文斯法官很可能认为自己至少和布什政府司法部的官员们一样有资格预测高院裁决对美国军事效力的影响。


Or perhaps the Justices were simply reacting to the Administration's constant overreaching.	抑或这可能仅仅是法官们对布什政府持续的过火行为的反应。


Yes, the existence of religious fanatics eager to kill large numbers of innocent American civilians warrants strong measures in response.	是的，宗教狂热分子杀死大量无辜美国平民企图足以引发政府强烈的反应。


But the Supreme Court's rulings affirm the fundamental principle that even grave dangers do not warrant the sort of blanket deference to which the Bush Administration believes it is entitled whenever it utters the words "war" and "terrorism."	布什政府认为只要一提起"战争"和"恐怖主义"这样的字眼，它就有权要求全国上下对其言听计从。 但最高法院的裁决确认了这样一个根本原则：即便是最严重的危险也不能成为布什政府要求如此特权的理由。


Bush’s Bad-Faith Energy Policy	布什言而无信的能源政策


One of the more surreal sessions at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos had oil industry experts explaining how the melting of the polar ice cap – which is occurring faster than anyone anticipated – represents not only a problem, but also an opportunity: vast amounts of oil may now be accessible.	在今年的达沃斯“世界经济论坛”上比较超现实的场景之一就是石油业的专家们解释说极地冰盖的消融—比我们所有人预想的都要快—如何代表的不仅是个问题，同时也是个机遇：储量巨大的石油现在也许就可以被开采出来了。


Similarly, these experts concede that the fact that the United States has not signed the Law of the Sea, the international convention determining who has access to offshore oil and other maritime mineral rights, presents a risk of international conflict.	同样，这些专家们承认美国没有签署《海洋法公约》（Law of the Sea），这部决定谁有权开采近海石油和其它海洋矿产权归属的国际公约，从而造成了国际冲突发生的风险。


But they also point to the upside: the oil industry, in its never-ending search for more reserves, need not beg Congress for the right to despoil Alaska.	但他们同时也指出了好的一面：石油产业在对更多石油储藏的无休止探索中，不需要企求美国国会批准就能掠夺阿拉斯加了。


President George W. Bush has an uncanny ability not to see the big message.	布什总统有一种不可思议的、接收不到重要迅息的能力。


For years, it has become increasingly clear that much is amiss with his energy policy.	事实越来越清楚地表明，他多年以来的能源政策偏误颇多。


Scripted by the oil industry, even members of his own party referred to an earlier energy bill as one that “left no lobbyist behind.”	早期的一项能源法案由石油工业一手炮制，所以就连他的本党同僚也称之为“一个说客都少不了”。


While praising the virtues of the free market, Bush has been only too willing to give huge handouts to the energy industry, even as the country faces soaring deficits.	布什一方面赞扬自由市场的优点，一方面又过于慷慨大度地给予能源工业巨额的施舍，即便在美国面临财政赤字攀升的情况下也是如此。


There is a market failure when it comes to energy, but government intervention should run in precisely the opposite direction from what the Bush administration has proposed.	在能源方面存在着市场失灵的情况。 但政府的干预恰好应该与布什政府所倡导的方式背道而驰。


The fact that Americans do not pay the full price for the pollution – especially enormous contributions to greenhouse gases – that results from their profligate energy use means that energy is under-priced, in turn sustaining excessive consumption.	美国人没有为其所造成的污染—特别是由于挥霍能源而造成的温室气体排放—付出完全的代价，意味着能源定价过低的情况在支撑着能源过度消费。


The government needs to encourage conservation, and intervening in the price system – namely, through taxes on energy – is an efficient way to do it.	政府需要鼓励节能，并干预价格体系—即通过征收能源税—是行之有效的。


But, rather than encouraging conservation, Bush has pursued a policy of “drain America first,” leaving America more dependent on external oil in the future.	但是，布什非但没有鼓励节能，反而追求一种“先抽干美国”的政策，使美国在未来更加依赖外国的石油。


Never mind that high demand drives up oil prices, creating a windfall for many in the Middle East who are not among America’s friends.	更别说高涨的需求驱动油价攀升，使得一些并非美国友邦的中东国家坐享渔人之利。


Now, more than four years after the terrorist attacks of September 2001, Bush appears to have finally woken up to the reality of America’s increasing dependence; with soaring oil prices, it was hard for him not to note the consequences.	现在，2001年9月的恐怖袭击发生已经4年多了，布什似乎终于从美国（对外国石油）日益增强的依赖的现实中醒悟过来； 油价暴涨使他不得不注意到后果的严重。


But, again, his administration’s faltering moves will almost surely make matters worse in the immediate future.	但是，其政府再度的犹豫和暧昧几乎肯定会使接下来的情况更糟糕。


Bush still refuses to do anything about conservation, and he has put very little money behind his continuing prayer than technology will save us.	布什仍然拒绝在节能方面采取行动，他宁可祈求上苍也不在节能技术上投入。


What, then, to make of Bush’s recent declaration of a commitment to make America 75% free of dependence on Middle East oil within 25 years.	那么，又应该如何理解布什最近宣布的，在25年内使美国对中东的依赖降低75%的旦旦誓言呢？


For investors, the message is clear: do not invest more in developing reserves in the Middle East, which is by far the lowest-cost source of oil in the world.	对投资者而言，其讯息非常明确：不要再在世界上开发成本最低的中东石油储藏开发方面投资。


But, without new investment in developing Middle East reserves, unbridled growth of energy consumption in the US, China, and elsewhere implies that demand will outpace supply.	但是，如果没有了在中东油田开发方面的新投资，美国、中国和世界其它地方野马脱缰般的能源消费增长，意味着需求会超过供应。


If that were not enough, Bush’s threat of sanctions against Iran poses the risks of interruptions of supplies from one of the world’s largest producers.	如果那还不够，布什对伊朗的制裁威胁会造成风险，中断这个世界主要石油生产国的石油供应。


With world oil production close to full capacity and prices already more than double their pre-Iraq War level, this portends still higher prices, and still higher profits for the oil industry – the only clear winner in Bush’s Middle East policy.	随着世界石油产能接近极限，油价已经比伊拉克战争之前涨了一倍多。 而这样的政策预示着更高的油价，和石油工业的更高利润—该行业是布什中东政策中唯一清楚的赢家。


To be sure, one shouldn’t begrudge Bush for having at last recognized that there is a problem.	确切地说，我们不应该抱怨布什终于承认了问题的存在。


But, as always, a closer look at what he is proposing suggests another sleight of hand by his administration.	然而，如果我们一如既往地进一步审视其政策提议，就会发现其政府的另一手花招。


Aside from refusing to recognize the importance of global warming, encourage conservation, or devote enough funds to research to make a real difference, Bush’s grandiose promise of a reduction of dependence on Middle East oil means less than it appears.	除了拒绝承认全球变暖的严重性，拒绝鼓励节能或划拨更多科研基金，布什那堂而皇之的，降低对中东石油依赖的承诺的实际意义也比表面上看更小。


With only 20% of US oil coming from the Middle East, his goal could be achieved by a modest shift of sourcing elsewhere.	由于美国的石油只有20%来自中东，他所定的目标通过在一定程度上转向另外的国家采购石油就能达到。


But surely, one would think, the Bush administration must realize that oil trades on a global market.	而我们肯定会想，布什政府必然意识到石油是在全球市场上交易。


Even if America were 100% independent of Middle East oil, a reduction in supply of Middle East oil could have devastating effects on the world price – and on the American economy.	即便是美国完全不需要中东石油，其供应量的减少也会对世界油价产生破坏性影响—进而影响美国经济。


As is too often the case with the Bush administration, there is no flattering explanation of official policy.	对布什政府的官方政策不需要有什么好的解释，这已经是见怪不怪了。


Is Bush playing politics by pandering to anti-Arab and anti-Iranian sentiment in America? Or is this just another example of incompetence and muddle?	这究竟是布什在通过煽动美国民众反阿拉伯和反伊朗的情绪玩政治游戏，抑或仅仅又是一次无能和糊涂的表现？


From what we have seen over the past five years, the correct answer probably contains more than a little bad faith and sheer ineptitude.	结合我们过去5年来的观察，正确的答案很可能比言而无信和尸位素餐更复杂。


Bush’s Crash Test Economics	布什的“破产试验”经济


Fifteen years ago, the United States was in the midst of what you could call its “Age of Diminished Expectations.”	十五年前，美国正处于所谓的“期望贬值”时代：生产力增长停滞； 能源价格高昂；


Productivity gains had stalled, energy prices were high, the backlog of potential technologies that originated in the Great Depression had been exhausted, and waning benefits from economies of scale led nearly every economist to project that economic growth would be slower in the future than it had been in the past.	经济大萧条时期被积压的潜能技术已经枯竭； 规模经济导致的收益渐亏使得几乎每一位经济学家做出这样的预测：经济增长速度在未来将远远落后于过去。