The global economy has operated so far under a set of ideas and institutions emanating from the advanced countries of the West.	目前，全球经济在以西方发达国家提出和制定的思想和制度运行。


The United States gave the world the doctrine of liberal, rule-based multilateralism – a regime whose many blemishes highlight the lofty principles according to which the system has generally functioned.	美国为世界带来了自由、规则基础下的多边主义思想——这一机制的缺点凸显出该体系运行所依据的傲慢原则。


Europe brought democratic values, social solidarity, and, for all its current problems, the century’s most impressive feat of institutional engineering, the European Union.	欧洲给世界带来了民主价值、社会团结，以及本世纪最引人瞩目的制度性工程——欧盟（尽管目前出现了多重问题）。


But these old powers have neither the legitimacy nor the power to sustain the global order into the future, while the new rising powers have yet to demonstrate which values they will articulate and promote.	但这些旧势力既没有合法性，也缺乏实力维持未来全球秩序，与此同时，新崛起的势力又尚未展示它们所推崇和推行的价值。


They have to develop their vision of a new global economy, beyond complaints about its asymmetric power structure.	它们必须有其自身的关于新全球经济的看法，超越对其不对称实力结构的看法。


Unfortunately, it is not yet clear whether they have the inclination to rise above their immediate interests in order to address the world’s common challenges.	不幸的是，现在看不出它们是否有克服眼前利益以解决世界共同挑战的意图。


Their own development experience makes countries like China, India, and Brazil resistant to market fundamentalism and natural advocates for institutional diversity and pragmatic experimentation.	自身的发展经验让中国、印度和巴西拒绝市场原教旨主义，使它们成为制度多样性和实用主义实验法的天然支持者。


They can build on this experience to articulate a new global narrative that emphasizes the real economy over finance, policy diversity over harmonization, national policy space over external constraints, and social inclusion over technocratic elitism.	它们可以在这一经验的基础上提出新的全球价值，强调实体经济胜于金融、政策多样性胜于和谐、国家政策空间胜于外部约束、社会包容胜于精英主义专家治国论。


But they must stop being supplicants, and act like real leaders, understanding that others, too, including advanced countries, face challenges that sometimes require policies that put the domestic economy first.	但它们必须停止摇尾乞怜，而应该像真正的领袖那样行动，理解包括发达国家在内的其他人也面临着挑战，这些挑战有时需要优先考虑国内经济的政策。


And they must work to uphold the bedrock principles of the global economy that have served it – and them – so well in the last 60 years: non-discrimination and multilateralism.	它们也必须致力于坚守为地球——以及它们——很好地服务了60年的全球经济的基本原则：无差别主义和多边主义。


Ultimately, though, the BRICS must also lead by example.	尽管如此，金砖国家也必须有一个榜样来领导。


The human-rights practices in China and Russia, and their suppression of political dissent, are incompatible with global leadership.& These authoritarian regimes must reform themselves at home if they are to exert any kind of moral claim abroad.	中国和俄国的人权实践以及它们的镇压政治异见者，这些都与国际领导地位不相符。 专制体制必须改革其自身，如果它们想输出道德观的话。


Crumbling BRICS	分裂的金砖国家


NEW DELHI – In 2001, when Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs coined the acronym BRIC to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the world had high hopes for the four emerging economies, whose combined GDP was expected to reach $128.4 trillion by 2050, dwarfing America’s projected GDP of $38.5 trillion.	新德里—2001年，高盛的奥尼尔（Jim O’Neill）创造了“金砖四国”一词用以指代巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国这四个世界寄予厚望的新兴经济体，到2050年，四国GDP总量预计将达128. 4万亿美元，远远高于美国的预计GDP38.


When the four countries’ leaders gather on March 26 in South Africa – which joined their ranks in 2010 – for the fifth BRICS summit, their progress and potential will be reassessed.	5万亿美元。 3月26日，四国领导人将在南非——该国于2010年加入金砖四国行列——举行了第五届金砖国家峰会，届时，这些国家的进步和潜力将会得到重新评估。


The summit’s hosts have set ambitious goals, reflected in the summit’s theme: “BRICS and Africa – a partnership for development, integration, and industrialization.”	峰会东道主设定了相当宏大的目标，这反映在峰会主题中：“金砖国家和非洲——面向发展、融合和工业化的合作伙伴关系”。


They seek to advance national interests, further the African agenda, and realign the world’s financial, political, and trade architecture – an agenda that encompasses objectives from previous summits, while reflecting South Africa’s goal of harnessing its membership to benefit all of Africa.	它们寻求推进国家利益、深化非洲日程并重组世界金融、政治和贸易格局——这一日程包括了前几次峰会的目标，同时也反映了南非引导这一集团为非洲谋利的目标。


But, while strengthening ties with African countries might seem like the kind of pragmatic development issue that should bring consensus, the seeds of doubt are already being sown.	但是，加强与非洲国家的联系固然看起来像是个应该形成一致的现实发展问题，但怀疑的种子已经生根了。


Lamido Sanusi, the governor of Nigeria’s central bank, has called for Africans to recognize that “their romance with China” has helped to bring about “a new form of imperialism.”	尼日利亚央行行长萨努西（Lamido Sanusi）呼吁非洲认识到“和中国打得火热”在助长“新形式的帝国主义”。


Moreover, the central item on the summit’s agenda, a proposed “BRICS development bank,” is one that has gone nowhere at previous summits.	此外，峰会日程的核心议题，即成立“金砖国家开发银行”在前几次峰会中没有形成任何结果。


This time, armed with a “feasibility study” put together by the five BRICS finance ministers, some progress may at last be made.	这一次，五国财政部长因“可行性研究”而走到了一起，或许最终能够取得一些进展。


With trade, both among the BRICS countries and between the BRICS and the rest of Africa, expected to increase from roughly $340 billion in 2012 to more than $500 billion in 2015, there is also much to discuss on the commercial front.	金砖国家之间及它们与非洲其他国家之间的贸易额预计将从2012年的约3400亿美元增至2015年的5000亿美元，因此在商业领域也有很多内容有待讨论。


So far, the goal of “global realignment” away from the advanced countries has catalyzed these five very disparate countries’ efforts to forge their own bloc.	目前，摆脱发达国家，实现“全球重组”的目标刺激着这五个截然不同的国家打造它们自己的集团。


But the primacy given to “advancing national interests” has always precluded real concerted action, at least until now.	但将“推进国家利益”作为首要任务总是会妨碍真正的联合行动，至少到目前为止是如此。


This is why the idea of establishing a BRICS development bank has taken on such importance.	这就是成立金砖国家开发银行的观点如此重要的原因。


And the recently conducted feasibility study might spur long-awaited progress.	最新完成的可行性研究或能刺激期待已久的进展。


But toward what end?	但是向哪个方向的进展？


According to China’s official news agency, the development bank’s primary objective would be “to direct development in a manner that reflects the BRICS’ priorities and competencies.”	据中国官方新闻社报道，这一开发银行的主要目标是“用能够反映金砖国家当务之急和自身能力的方式来指导其发展”。


Once the bank is established, a working group will be tasked with building the necessary technical and governance capacity.	一旦该银行成立，将任命一个工作组处理必要的技术和治理问题。


But this stock rhetoric fails to address the discrepancies between the BRICS’ interests, or to define the bank’s role in reconciling and advancing them.	但这一信息并没有解决金砖国家之间的利益分歧问题，也没有给出该银行在协调和促进金砖国家方面的角色。


The fact that China is already Africa’s top trading partner, for example, invites questions about the proposed bank’s potential contributions.	中国已然是非洲最大的贸易伙伴，这一事实让人质疑金砖国家开发银行的潜在作用。


And China’s answer – that the bank would foster the “development of more robust and inter-dependent ties between the BRICS” – provides little substance.	中国的回答——该银行能够促进“金砖国家间更稳健、更深入的关系的发展”——并没有提供多少实质内容。


Is the bank supposed to serve as a counterweight to global multilateral development banks like the World Bank, or to reduce American and European dominance over the Bretton Woods institutions?	新银行将成为类似世界银行的全球多边发展开发银行界的新平衡点，还是为了削弱美国和欧洲在布雷顿森林体系机构中的主导力？


Whatever the underlying objective, it must be identified, and its concomitant risks addressed, if the BRICS are to make genuine progress.	不管基本目标是什么，都必须对此有所认识，并处置好相应的风险，如果金砖国家意在推动真正的进步的话。


For example, if the proposed bank is simply an additional funding institution aimed at supporting the BRICS’s development agenda, the participating countries’ leaders must establish how it will interact with national institutions, such as the Brazilian Development Bank, the China Development Bank, and the Export-Import Bank of India.	比如，如果金砖国家开发银行仅仅是一个新的旨在支持金砖国家发展日程的融资机构，那么参与国领导人必须想好它将如何与国家层面的机构的互动，比如巴西开发银行、中国国家开银行、印度进出口银行等。


But the problem of aligning the BRICS’ interests is a much deeper one.	但协调金砖国家的利益是一个层次远远更深的问题。


Consider India’s need for massive investments in infrastructure, made evident in its just-proposed 2013-2014 budget.	就拿印度来说吧。 它需要大规模基础设施投资，这一点在最新公布的2013—2014年预算中显露无疑。


Some hopeful Indians see a BRICS bank as a way to channel China’s surplus funds – as well as its expertise and experience – to such investments (especially railways), as well as to strengthen Sino-Indian ties.	一些满怀希望的印度人将金砖国家开发银行视为引入中国富余资金——及其专业和经验——投向这些项目（特别是铁路）并加强中印关系的办法。


But, given the two countries’ many serious bilateral problems, will either government really want to bind itself so closely to the other?	但中印之间存在许多严重的双边问题，双方政府真的愿意与对方紧密相联吗？


Likewise, it is unclear what South Africa has to gain from the BRICS.	类似地，没有明确的迹象表明南非一定要从金砖国家中获得什么好处。


Over the last few decades, the country has used mining revenues to pave roads, strengthen law enforcement, advance education, and revitalize cities and towns.	过去几十年来，南非用矿业收入铺设道路、强化法律实施、改善教育并激活城镇。


The country’s most serious remaining problems – poverty and social inequality – are unlikely to be ameliorated through cooperation with the other BRICS countries, all of which rank among the world’s most unequal societies.	南非最严重的待解决问题——贫困和社会不平等性——不可能通过与其他金砖国家合作解决，这五个国家名列世界最不平等社会行列。


Other shared problems – such as corruption, poverty, and social underdevelopment – would be similarly difficult to address together.	其他共同问题——比如腐败、贫困和社会欠发达——也难以一并纠正。


And it seems that the BRICS may not even be willing to try.	且金砖国家可能根本不愿意一试。


Although Wen Jiabao, in his final address as Prime Minister, highlighted the enduring obstacles to China’s economic development (many of which its fellow BRICS share), China’s new president, Xi Jinping, insists that his country will not sacrifice its “sovereignty, security, or development interests” for the sake of more trade.	尽管温家宝在其作为总理的最后一次讲话中强调了中国经济发展所面临的顽固障碍（其中许多也存在于其他金砖国家中），但中国新国家主席习近平坚持中国不会牺牲“主权、安全和发展利益”来追求更多的贸易。


Meanwhile, Russia’s impaired democracy and resource-driven economy are a poor example for its fellow BRICS – and, in fact, could serve as a warning to the others about the risks of excessive reliance on the state.	与此同时，俄罗斯的不完善民主和资源驱动型经济为其他金砖国家树立了不好的榜样——事实上，俄罗斯可以称为一个警示信号，过度以来政府会产生风险。


And Brazil, like India a genuine democracy, also seems sui generis.	与印度同属真正民主国家的巴西也是自成一格。


Despite the commodities boom of the last decade, its industrial output relative to GDP is no higher than it was when the effort to create a BRICS bloc began.	尽管过去十年中经历了商品繁荣，但其工业产出占GDP的比重并没有比金砖国家名词诞生前高。


The BRICS’ ambitions – and the world’s expectations for them – may yet be fulfilled.	金砖国家的雄心——以及全世界寄予它们的厚望——或许能够实现。


But shared potential does not translate into collaborative action.	但共同潜力并不会转变为合作行动。


On the contrary, each of the BRICS will have to pursue its goals, and confront its challenges, individually.	相反，金砖国家中的每一个都必须追求自己的目标，直面自己的挑战。


What International Community?	什么国际社会？


NEW YORK – Whenever something bad happens – Iran moving closer to acquiring nuclear weapons, North Korea firing another missile, civilian deaths reaching another grim milestone in Syria’s civil war, satellites revealing an alarming rate of polar-ice melt – some official or observer will call upon the international community to act.	纽约—每当坏事发生——伊朗离拥有核武器又近了一步，朝鲜又发射了一次导弹，叙利亚内战平民死亡人数又上了一个台阶，卫星显示极地冰带融化令人警觉——总有一些官员和观察者呼吁国际社会采取行动。


There is only one problem: there is no “international community.”	问题只有一个：没有“国际社会”。


Part of the reason stems from the absence of any mechanism for “the world” to come together.	部分原因在于没有任何制度将“世界”拧在一起。


The United Nations General Assembly comes closest, but little can be expected from an organization that equates the United States or China with, say, Fiji or Guinea-Bissau.	联合国大会是最接近的制度，但在联大，美国和中国与斐济和几内亚比绍平起平坐，对于如此组织，你也无法提起多少期望。


To be fair, those who founded the UN after World War II created the Security Council as the venue in which major powers would meet to determine the world’s fate.	平心而论，二战后联合国成立时，安理会是作为大国会晤决定世界命运的机构而设立的。


But even that has not worked out as planned, partly because the world of 2013 bears little resemblance to that of 1945.	但即便是这个安排，也没有按计划展开，部分是因为2013年的世界与1945年已经毫无相似之处。


How else could one explain that Britain and France, but not Germany, Japan, or India, are permanent, veto-wielding members?	要不然如何解释英国和法国，而不是德国、日本或印度拥有永久否决权？


Alas, there is no agreement on how to update the Security Council.	可惜，关于如何更新安理会，目前尚无一致意见。


Efforts like the G-20 are welcome, but they lack authority and capacity, in addition to suffering from excessive size.	类似G20的安排值得欢迎，但缺少正统性和能力，而且规模过于臃肿。


The result is “multilateralism’s dilemma”:  the inclusion of more actors increases an organization’s legitimacy at the expense of its utility.	结果就是“多边主义困境”：容纳更多行动方能增加一个组织的正统性，但会因此牺牲功能性。


No amount of UN reform could make things fundamentally different.	联合国改革也无法带来根本性的不同。


Today’s major powers do not agree on the rules that ought to govern the world, much less on the penalties for breaking them.	如今，大国就世界治理规则众说纷纭，更不用说破坏规则的惩罚了。


Even where there is accord in principle, there is little agreement in practice.	即使在原则上达成了一致，如何实践也是莫衷一是。


The result is a world that is messier and more dangerous than it should be.	结果是世界比其所应有的模样更乱更危险。


Consider climate change.	就拿气候变化来说吧。


Burning fossil fuels is having a measurable impact on the earth’s temperature.	燃烧化石燃料对地球温度产生影响是可测量的。


But reducing carbon emissions has proved impossible, because such a commitment could constrain GDP growth (anathema to developed countries mired in economic malaise) and impede access to energy and electricity for billions of people in developing countries, which is unacceptable to China and India.	但减少碳排放却难于上青天，因为这方面的承诺会制约GDP增长（对于深陷经济困境的发达国家来说，这不啻于诅咒），也阻碍了发展中国家数十亿人获得能源和电力，中国和印度无法接受这一点。


Stopping the spread of nuclear weapons would seem a more promising issue for global collaboration.	停止核武器蔓延似乎是前途相当光明的全球合作问题。


The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) limits the right to possess nuclear weapons to the Security Council’s five permanent members, and then only temporarily.	核不扩散条约（NPT）限定拥有核武器的权利仅限于安理会五大常任理事国，而且只能暂时拥有。


But agreement is thinner than it appears.	但协定薄如纸。


The NPT allows countries the right to develop nuclear energy for purposes such as electricity generation, a loophole that allows governments to build most of what is necessary to produce the fuel for a nuclear weapon.	NPT允许拥有出于发电等目的开发核能的权利，各国政府利用这一漏洞制造生产核武器燃料所需的大部分材料。


The inspection regime created in 1957 under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a gentlemen’s agreement; inspectors can inspect only those facilities that are made known to them by the government in question.	国际原子能机构（IAEA）1957年所制定的检查制度只是个君子协定； 检查人员只能检查问题政府自己披露的已知设施。


Governments (such as Iran’s) can and do carry out illegal nuclear activities in secret sites that international inspectors either do not know about or cannot enter.	政府（比如伊朗政府）可以也确实在秘密地点从事非法核活动，国际检查人员要么对此不知情，要么无法进入现场。


At least as important, there is no agreement on what to do when a country violates the NPT, as Iran and North Korea (which withdrew from the treaty in 2003) have done.	同样重要的是，没有协定规定违反NPT（比如伊朗和朝鲜，后者在2003年退出了NPT）会怎样。


More international cooperation exists in the economic realm.	经济领域的国际合作更多一些。


There has been real progress toward reducing tariff barriers; the World Trade Organization has also established a dispute-resolution mechanism for its 159 members.	在减少关税壁垒方面确实有所进步； 世界贸易组织也为其195个成员国建立了纠纷解决机制。


But progress on expanding free trade at the global level has stalled, as many countries disagree on the treatment of agricultural goods, the elimination of subsidies, and trade in services.	但扩大全球水平自由贸易的进展陷入了停滞，许多国家在农业产品待遇、取消补贴和服务贸易方面存在分歧。


Meanwhile, cooperation in the realm of cyberspace is just getting started – with difficulty.	与此同时，网络空间领域的合作才刚刚开始——艰难起步。


The US is most concerned about cyber security and the protection of intellectual property and infrastructure.	美国最关心网络安全和保护知识产权和基础设施。


Authoritarian governments are more concerned about information security – the ability to control what is available on the Internet in order to maintain political and social stability.	专制政府更关心信息安全——控制在互联网上获得什么信息的能力，以维护政治和社会稳定。


There is no agreement on what, if anything, constitutes an appropriate target for espionage.	对于该领域合理的目标，尚没有一致意见。


The prevalence of non-state actors is further complicating efforts.	无处不在的非政府行动方让事情更加复杂了。


Another area where there is less international community than meets the eye is human suffering.	另一个国际社会中看不中用的领域是人道灾难。


Governments that attack their own people on a large scale, or allow such attacks to be carried out, expose themselves to the threat of outside intervention.	大规模攻击人民或坐视人民被攻击的政府将受外部干预。


This “Responsibility to Protect,” or R2P, was enshrined by the UN in 2005.	这一“保护责任”（Responsibility to Protect，R2P）在2005年写入了联合国。


But many governments are concerned that R2P raises expectations that they will act, which could prove costly in terms of lives, military expenditure, and commercial priorities.	但许多政府担心R2P增加了人们对它们采取行动的预期，而这可能付出沉重的生命、军事支出和商业优先事项代价。


Some governments are also worried that R2P could be turned on them.	一些国家的政府还担心可能成为R2P的目标。


Russian and Chinese reticence about pressuring governments that deserve censure and sanction stems partly from such concerns; the absence of consensus on Syria is just one result.	俄罗斯和中国在向应该受到指责和制裁的政府施压方面持保留态度，部分原因就在于此； 叙利亚问题无法形成一致只是结果之一。


In short, those looking to the international community to deal with the world’s problems will be disappointed.	简言之，指望国际社会解决世界问题的人将感到失望。


This is not reason for despair or grounds for acting unilaterally.	没有理由绝望或采取单方面行动。


But so long as “international community” is more hope than reality, multilateralism will have to become more varied.	但只要“国际社会”更多地属于希望而不是现实，多边主义就必须更加多样。


In the trade area, this implies regional and bilateral accords.	在贸易领域，这意味着地区和双边协定。


On climate change, it makes sense to seek “mini-agreements” that set minimum common standards for fuel efficiency, slow deforestation, or limit the largest economies’ carbon output.	在气候变化方面，寻求“迷你协定”制定最低限度的标准提高能源效率、减缓森林采伐和限制最大经济体的碳排放更有意义。


In these and other areas, governments will need to rally around regional undertakings, form coalitions of the relevant or willing, or simply seek understandings among countries to do their best to adopt common policies.	在这些和其他领域，政府应该围绕地区承诺合作，比如相关国家或有意愿国家之间的结盟，或仅仅寻求各国之间关于尽力采取共同政策的谅解。


Such approaches may lack the reach and legitimacy of formal global undertakings, but they do have the advantage of getting something done.	这样的方法可能不如正式全球承诺范围广、正统性高，但在将事务落到实处方面自有其优势。


The “Browning” of African Technology	非洲技术的“黄种化”


Forget MIT.	忘掉麻省理工学院吧。


Hello, Tsing Hua University.	清华大学正向你张开双手。


For Clothilde Tingiri, a hot young programmer at Rwanda’s top software company, dreams of Beijing, not Cambridge, animate her ambitions.	对于Clothilde Tingiri，一个在卢旺达最大的软件公司工作的年轻程序员来说，对北京而不是剑桥的梦想是激励她前进的理想。


Desperate for more education, this fall she plans to attend graduate school for computer science – in China, not America.	怀着接受更多教育的理想，这个秋天她计划到中国，而不是美国，去上计算机学科的研究生班。


The Chinese are no strangers to Rwanda.	卢旺达对中国人并不陌生。


Near Tingiri’s office, Rwanda’s largest telecom company, Rwandatel, is installing new wireless telephony equipment made by Huawei of Shenzen.	就在Tingiri的办公室附件，卢旺达最大的电信公司Rwandatel，正在安装由深圳华为公司提供的新的无线通讯设备。


Africa boasts the world’s fastest-growing market for wireless telephony, and Huawei – with offices in 14 African countries – is running away with the business, sending scores of engineers into the bush to bring a new generation of low-cost technology to some of the planet’s poorest people.	非洲被认为是世界上在无线通讯上发展最快的市场，而在14个非洲国家都建立了办事处的华为公司无疑走在了前列，它把许多工程师派遣到灌木丛里以便给这个星球上最贫穷的人带去新一代的低价技术。


Motivated by profit and market share rather than philanthropy, Huawei is outpacing American and European rivals through lower prices, faster action, and a greater willingness to work in difficult environments.	更多地受利益和市场份额而不是慈善的驱动，华为公司通过更低的价格、更快的行动以及更愿意在艰苦的环境中工作而超越了美国和欧洲的竞争对手。


According to Chris Lundh, the American chief of Rwandatel, “That’s the way things work in Africa now.	Rwandatel的美籍主管Chris Lundh指出：“这就是非洲的现状。


The Chinese do it all.”	中国人占领了所有的市场。 ”


Well, not quite.	这并不完全正确。


Across sub-Saharan Africa, engineers from India – armed with appropriate technologies honed in their home market – are also making their mark.	在撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲，来自印度的工程师同样也取得了很好的成绩。 他们有在他们本国的市场经过磨练的合适的技术。


India supplies Africa with computer-education courses, the most reliable water pumps, low-cost rice-milling equipment, and dozens of other technologies.	印度为非洲提供了计算机教育课程、最可靠的水泵、低价的碾米设备还有许多其他的技术。


The sudden influx of Chinese and Indian technologies represents the “browning” of African technology, which has long been the domain of “white” Americans and Europeans who want to apply their saving hand to African problems.	中国和印度技术突然的涌入代表了非洲技术的“黄种化”。 而这里原本是由“白种”的美国人和欧洲人占领的，他们试图为非洲的问题伸出援助之手。


“It is a tectonic shift to the East with shattering implications,” says Calestous Juma, a Kenyan professor at Harvard University who advises the African Union on technology policy.	“这是颠覆性的向东方的地壳转移”，Calestous Juma说。 他是一位哈佛大学的肯尼亚教授，为非洲联盟在技术政策上提供建议。


One big change is in education.	一个大的变化是在教育上。


There are roughly 2,000 African students in China, most of whom are pursuing engineering and science courses.	现在中国大约有2000名非洲学生，其中大部分学的是工程和科学课程。


According to Juma, that number is expected to double over the next two years, making China “Africa’s leading destination for science and engineering education.”	按照Juma的观点，这一数字在未来两年还会翻一倍，从而使中国成为“非洲人接受科学和工程教育的首选地”。


The “browning” of technology in Africa is only in its infancy, but the shift is likely to accelerate.	非洲技术的“黄种化”还只是处于初始阶段，但是这种转变很可能会加速。


Chinese and Indian engineers hail from places that have much more in common with nitty-gritty Africa than comfortable Silicon Valley or Cambridge.	中国和印度的工程师来自与非洲的本质情况比舒适的硅谷或剑桥有更多共同点的地方。


Africa also offers a testing ground for Asian-designed technologies that are not yet ready for US or European markets.	非洲为亚洲设计的技术提供了一个试验场所，而这些技术还没有完善到能进入美国或欧洲市场。


A good example is a solar-powered cooking stove from India, which has experimented with such stoves for decades.	一个很好的例子就是印度生产的一种太阳能的灶具，印度对这种灶具已经试验了几十年时间。


Wood-burning stoves are responsible for much of Africa’s deforestation, and, in many African cities, where wood accounts for the majority of cooking fuel, its price is soaring.	大多数非洲人用烧木材的炉子来除霜。 在许多主要用木材来做饭的非洲城市，木材的价格正在节节上升。


The Indian stove is clearly a work-in-progress; it is too bulky and not durable enough to survive the rigors of an African village.	印度的灶具显然还只是一种半成品； 它体积太大，并且在非洲农村严酷的气候下并不耐用。


But with India’s vast internal market, many designers have an incentive to improve it.	但是面对印度庞大的国内市场，许多设计师有足够的动力去改进它。


How many designers in America or Europe can say the same?	有多少美国或欧洲的设计师会说出同样的话呢？


Of course, technology transfer from China and India could be a mere smokescreen for a new “brown imperialism” aimed at exploiting African oil, food, and minerals.	当然，中国和印度的技术转让也许仅仅是一种烟幕，它的背后是掠夺非洲的石油、食品和矿藏的一种新的“黄种帝国主义”。


In recent years, China’s government alone has invested billions of dollars in African infrastructure and resource extraction, raising suspicions that a new scramble for Africa is underway.	近些年来，单单中国政府就在非洲的基础设施和资源采掘上投资了几十亿美元，从而使人们怀疑他们正在对非洲实行一轮新的掠夺。


But Africans genuinely need foreign technology, and the Chinese, in particular, are pushing hard – even flamboyantly – to fill the gap.	但是非洲真的需要外国的技术，而中国人尤其努力甚至是张扬地在填补这个空白。


This year, Nigeria’s government bought a Chinese-made satellite, and even paid the Chinese to launch it into space in May.	今年，尼日利亚政府购买了一颗中国制造的卫星，甚至付钱让中国人在五月份把它送上天。


China was so eager to provide space technology to Africa’s most populous country that it beat out 21 other bidders for a contract worth $300 million.	中国是如此渴望为非洲这个人口最多的国家提供空间技术，以致它以合同总价3亿美元击败了其他21个竞标者。


China’s technology inroads are usually less dramatic, but no less telling.	中国的技术侵袭通常并没有那么戏剧性，但是却并不缺乏故事。


In African medicine, Chinese herbs and pharmaceuticals are quietly gaining share.	在非洲的药品市场上，中国的中草药和成药正在飞快地占领市场。


For example, the Chinese-made anti-malarial drug artesunate has become part of the standard treatment within just a few years.	比如，中国生产的抗疟疾药青蒿琥酯仅仅在几年间就成为了标准治疗的一部分。


Likewise, Chinese mastery over ultra-small, cheap “micro-hydro” dams, which can generate tiny amounts of electricity from mere trickles of water, appeals to power-short, river-rich Africans.	同样地，中国在超小、便宜的“微水电”站上的技术对于电力短缺但是拥有丰富河流的非洲也非常有吸引力。


Tens of thousands of micro-hydro systems operate in China, and nearly none in Africa.	这种技术从很小的水流上就可以产生小量的电，在中国有数万个微水电系统在运行而在非洲却几乎为零。


Americans do-gooders like Nicholas Negroponte, with his $100 laptop, have identified the right problem: Africa is way behind technologically and rapid leap-frogging is possible.	美国的一些不切实际的慈善家像内格罗蓬特，怀揣着价值100美元的笔记本电脑，指出了真正的问题所在：非洲在技术上远远落后，从而使飞速的跳跃式前进成为可能。


But Chinese and Indian scientists argue that Africa can benefit from a changing of the technological guard.	但是中国和印度的科学家争辩说非洲可以从技术保安的换岗中受益。


They may be right.	他们也许是对的。


The Buck Stops at the Top	让对抗止于高层


Recent news coverage showed Ken Lay, the former CEO of Enron, being led away in handcuffs.	就在不久前,新闻报导播出了肯·雷，前安然首席执行官，带着手铐被警察领走。


Finally - years after Enron's collapse - Lay faces charges for what happened when he was at the helm.	安然倒闭几年后，雷终于要为执掌安然期间所发生的一切接受审判。


As is so often the case in such circumstances, the CEO pleads innocence: he knew nothing about what his underlings were doing.	和很多类似的案例一样，首席执行官们无一例外地辩称无罪：理由是他们对部下的所作所为一无所知。


Bosses like Lay always seem to feel fully responsible for their companies' successes - how else could they justify their exorbitant compensation?	像雷这样的老板似乎总觉得公司的成功完全是他们的功劳－除此之外，还有什么能成为领到高额报酬的理由？


But the blame for failure - whether commercial or criminal - always seems to lie elsewhere.	但经营失败的责任－商业责任也好、刑事责任也罢－却好像总是在别人身上。


America's courts (like Italy's courts in the case of Parmalat) will make the final judgment over criminal and civil liability under existing law.	美国法院（就像帕玛拉特案中的意大利法院一样），将会按现有法律对刑事和民事责任做出裁决。


But there is a broader issue at stake in such cases: to what extent should a CEO be held responsible for what happens under his watch?	但这种情况牵扯到一个广义的问题：首席执行官要对在任期间的结果承担多大责任？


Clearly, no CEO of a large corporation, with hundreds of thousands of employees, can know everything that goes on inside the company he or she runs.	显然，大公司的首席执行官手下有成百上千名雇员，他们不可能了解自己管理的公司内部发生的一切状况。


But if the CEO is not accountable, who is?	可如果首席执行官不负责任，那么责任由谁来负？


Those below him claim that they were just doing what they thought was expected of them.	他的部下会说他们只是在遵照指示执行任务。


If they were not following precise orders, they were at least responding to vague pro forma instructions from the top: don't do anything illegal, just maximize profits.	如果不是执行特别的指令，至少也是在对他们心目中的上层意愿做出回应：别违法，只要尽量多赚利润。


The result, often enough, is a climate within which managers begin to feel that it is acceptable to skirt the edges of the law or to fudge company accounts.	结果通常是滋生了这样一种氛围：经理们认为可以打法律的擦边球，或是伪造公司帐目。


Even though a CEO cannot know everything, he or she is still ultimately responsible for what occurs in the company they run.	就算首席执行官不可能洞察一切，他或她仍然要对公司所有行为负责。


They choose their subordinates, so it is their responsibility to ask the hard questions about what is going on under their watch.	他们选择了自己的部下，因此有责任思考部下们管理状况如何的难题。


More importantly, it is their responsibility to create a climate that encourages, or discourages, certain kinds of activities.	更重要的是，他们有责任创造一种鼓励或防止某种行为的环境。


Simply put, it is their responsibility to be true leaders.	简单点说，他们有责任成为真正的领袖。


What's true for business bosses is doubly true for presidents and prime ministers.	对企业老板适用的规则对总统和总理加倍适用。


The United States is in the process of choosing who will lead it for the next four years.	美国正选择将在谁的领导下走过今后四年。


President George W. Bush may claim that he didn't know that the information he was provided by the CIA concerning weapons of mass destruction in pre-war Iraq was so faulty.	乔治·W·布什总统可能辩白说他不知道中情局在伊拉克战前提供的大规模杀伤性武器情报有多少问题。


He may also claim that, with many thousands of troops under his command, it was impossible for him to ensure that US soldiers were not committing atrocities, torture, or violations of civil liberties.	他还可能狡辩说自己领导着成千上万的部队，因此不可能保证美国兵都不去施暴、折磨或违反自由权利。


But there is a fundamental sense in which Bush, like Ken Lay, is culpable, and must be held accountable.	但布什和肯·雷一样，从根本上有着重大过错，而且理应承担责任。


Just as a CEO with a record not only of poor performance, but also of massive corporate misconduct, should be fired, so, too, should political leaders be held to a similar standard.	如果首席执行官任内不仅效率低下，而且员工大面积行为不端，那么首席执行官就应该遭到解雇；


Bush had a responsibility for the behavior of the people working for him.	同样道理，政治领袖也应该适用类似的法则，布什也对工作人员的行为负有责任。


Instead, almost across the board in his administration, he chose as advisors people akin to Ken Lay.	但事实却恰恰相反：几乎政府中的每一个职位，他都选择使用肯·雷这样的人。


Bush chose as his Vice-President a man who once served as CEO of Halliburton.	布什选择了从前哈里伯顿的首席执行官出任副总统。


Dick Cheney clearly cannot be held responsible for corporate misconduct after he left Halliburton, but there is mounting evidence about misconduct that took place while he was at the helm.	迪克·切尼当然不能为离开哈里伯顿后的不良行为负责，但越来越多的证据表明，他掌管公司期间也存在大量问题。


Similarly, at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Bush appointed in the person of Harvey Pitt a fox to guard the chickens - until public outrage forced Pitt's resignation.	与此相似，布什任命哈维·皮特担任证监会主席，就好比让狐狸去保护雏鸡－直到惹起众怒，皮特才被迫辞职。


Bush chose the people who provided him with faulty information about Iraq, or at least he chose the heads of the organizations that provided the faulty information.	布什自己任命的人给他提供了伊拉克的错误信息，至少给他错误信息的部门领导是他亲自指定的。


He chose his defense secretary and attorney general.	他任命了自己的国防部长和首席检察官。


He, and the people he appointed, created an environment of secrecy, a system in which the normal checks on the accuracy of information were removed.	他，和他选定的人，营造了这样的秘密环境，这样的系统抛弃了对信息真实性的正常审查程序。


Most importantly, Bush did not ask the hard questions - perhaps because he, like those below him, already knew the answers they wanted.	最重要的是，布什根本没有提出困难的问题－也许因为他，和他的手下，已经知道了自己想要的答案。


They created a closed culture, impervious to contradictory facts, a culture in which civil rights have been given short shrift and some people have been deemed not to deserve any rights protection at all.	他们全然不顾相反的事实依据，营造了完全封闭的气氛，这样的文化蔑视公民权利，而且认定有些人根本不配受到任何保护。


Only such a culture - one that undermined the longstanding presumption that an accused person is innocent until proven guilty - could produce the Bush administration's niggling legal distinctions concerning what is and what is not torture.	长久以来，我们一直对被告做出无罪推定，除非掌握了确凿的证据来推翻它。 只有破坏了这种文化，布什政府才能让法律对折磨的定义变得如此琐碎。


The abuses that have been documented at places such as Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo may not have been an inevitable consequence of the administration's legal memos, but surely those memos increased enormously the likelihood that torture would be viewed as acceptable.	阿布格莱布和关塔那摩记载的虐俘事件也许不是政府法律记录的必然后果，可勿庸置疑的是：这些记录大大增加了人们接受这种折磨的可能性。


Many Americans will reject Bush this November because of the poor performance of the economy or the quagmire in Iraq.	今年11月，低迷的经济和伊拉克泥沼会使布什失去很多选票。


Others will oppose him due to his environmental record or his budget priorities.	还有人反对他是因为他糟糕的环境记录和预算重点。


But the intensity of opposition in America to Bush runs deeper than any single issue.	但美国人强烈反对布什的原因绝没有这么简单。


There is a growing recognition that the values he and his administration reflect are the antithesis of what America has long stood for - the values of an open society, in which differences of view are freely debated within a culture of civility and mutual respect for the rights of all.	人们越来越意识到：他和他政府奉行的观点站在了长期以来美国价值观的对立面－那就是开放的社会，在礼貌的环境中自由辩论不同的观点和尊重所有人应有的权利。


The battle being waged in America today to restore these values is one that has been waged repeatedly around the world.	今天，恢复上述价值观的战役在美国打响，世界各地也无数次地进行过类似的努力。


Both in America and elsewhere, much hinges on the outcome, for it is nothing less than a battle to force our leaders to accept responsibility for their actions.	在美国和其它地方，战役的结果都非常关键，因为迫使我们的领导人对自己的行为负责根本不亚于一场战争。


The Bumpy Road Ahead	前路崎岖


CAMBRIDGE – If stock market and interest-rate spreads are to be believed, America’s economy has seen the worst and may be on its way to a slow recovery.	坎布里奇——如果股市和利差可信的话，美国经济已经见底，下面可能会缓慢复苏。


But the troubles for the world economy are just starting.	但世界经济的麻烦却刚刚开始。


If globalization does not get the fix it needs, economic prospects will be dim for rich and poor countries alike.	如果全球化得不到必要的修复，穷国和富国未来的经济前景都不容乐观。


The worst that could happen is a return to the 1930’s, when countries put up high trade barriers and retreated into isolationism, to the detriment of all.	最坏情况莫过于回到20世纪30年代，当时各国设立贸易壁垒，死守孤立主义，损害了所有人的利益。


Fortunately, this is a remote scenario today.	幸运的是，这在今天看来还很遥远。


But the next worst thing is to assume that a minor patch-up will be enough to render globalization healthy and sustainable.	但次坏情况是想当然地认为只需轻微的修补就足以换回全球化的健康和持续。


It will take real effort and creativity to repair the deep cracks in globalization revealed by the financial crisis.	修复金融危机暴露出来的全球化漏洞需要不折不扣的努力和创造力。


First, the good news.	先看好消息。


The global response to the crisis may not have been stellar, but neither has it been the free-for-all that might have been feared.	全球危机解决对策或许并不完美，但也并不像人们害怕的那样争吵不休。


The G-20 could not agree on coordinated fiscal stimulus or concrete steps towards banking reform.	20国集团未能就统一财政刺激或银行改革的具体步骤达成一致。


But it did coalesce behind the International Monetary Fund and provided it with additional resources.	但它们确实联手支持国际货币基金组织，为IMF提供额外的资源。


Despite scores of new protectionist measures around the world since the onset of the financial crisis, the vast majority are nothing to lose sleep over.	尽管金融危机发生后世界各地冒出了大量保护主义举措，但其中绝大多数都不值得多虑。


Globalization has not received a mortal blow – at least not yet.	至少到目前为止，全球化还没有遭到致命的一击。


The real test is yet to come.	真正的考验还没有到来。


The problem is that none of globalization’s underlying weaknesses is likely to be adequately addressed under the current agenda.	问题在于现有计划可能无法解决全球化隐含的任何一个弱点。


Financial regulation and supervision will surely be strengthened, but they will remain national in character, with little safeguard against cross-border spillover and regulatory arbitrage.	金融法规和监管肯定会有所增强，但监管措施仍将局限在国内，对跨国溢出和法律仲裁鲜有保护。


Moreover, the World Trade Organization’s agenda will remain irrelevant and, in any case, deadlocked.	此外，世贸组织议程仍将落后于潮流，甚至陷入无法自拔的僵局。


China has yet to discover and adopt an alternative growth strategy that does not rely on a large trade surplus.	中国还没有找到并采纳不依赖巨额贸易盈余的替代性发展策略。


Trade and immigration (legal and illegal), if left unchecked, will continue to exert downward pressure on rich countries’ labor markets.	贸易和移民（包括合法和非法渠道）如果置之不理，将继续压制富裕国家的劳动力市场。


The financial crisis has not helped improve the image of globalization, which has long been deeply unpopular among ordinary voters in most of the world’s advanced countries.	长久以来，全球化形象在多数发达国家的普通选民中不受欢迎，这次金融危机并没有改善全球化的形象。


As a result, globalization’s tendency to produce macroeconomic imbalances and financial fragility, its adverse impact on equality and social peace in many countries, and its weak political legitimacy will continue to generate tension and periodic crises.	结果，全球化造成的宏观经济不平衡和金融涣散的趋势，其对许多国家平等和社会和平的负面影响及其脆弱的合法性将继续制造紧张局势和周期性的危机。


Two other developments will greatly aggravate these weaknesses.	另外两大趋势会愈加暴露弱点问题。


The first is that the United States and other advanced countries are unlikely to recover their previous economic dynamism even after financial stability is restored.	首先是美国和其他发达国家即便恢复金融稳定，也很难再恢复它们从前的经济活力。


Rich-country households have suffered a momentous loss of wealth (amounting to tens of trillions of US dollars).	富国家庭遭受了重大的财产损失（总额高达数十万亿美元）。


This implies that consumption growth will remain muted for some time.	这意味着消费增长将在一段时期内保持低迷。


With public debt rising very rapidly, and in some countries projected to exceed 100% of GDP, governments will not be in a position to take up the slack.	随着公共债务快速增长，甚至在某些国家预计超过100%GDP，政府恐怕没有能力充分利用闲散的人力物力。


The restructuring of economies away from finance will necessarily take some time.	远离金融的经济重组肯定需要些时日。


Stagnation rather than growth will be the name of the game.	这场游戏的名字不是增长而是停滞。


Second, global leadership is likely to remain in very short supply.	其次，全球领导力可能异常短缺。


The US will be crippled by its high debt, under-performing economy, and discredited economic model.	高负债率、经济低迷和经济模式声名狼藉可能削弱美国的实力。


The European Union will be preoccupied with its own internal integration process.	欧盟将主要关注其内部整合事务。


And China, where income per person is one-eighth the level of the US (adjusted for purchasing power parity), is simply too poor to become the new hegemony.	而中国的人均收入只有美国的八分之一（经过购买力平价调整），它因为太过贫困而无法成为新的霸主。


History teaches that global economic order is difficult to establish and maintain in the absence of a dominant economic power.	历史告诉我们，没有占主导地位的经济强国，就难以建立和维护全球经济秩序。


The interwar period, which suffered from a similar crisis of leadership, produced not only a collapse of globalization, but a devastating armed conflict on a global scale.	出现过类似领导危机的战争间歇期不仅导致了全球化崩溃，而且在世界范围内造成了毁灭性的武装冲突。


So the stakes in righting the world economy could not be higher.	因此矫正世界经济的重要性无与伦比。


Mismanage the process, and the consequences could be unimaginable.	如果过程管理不当，可能造成无法想象的后果。


Unfortunately, many of the solutions on offer are either too timid or demand too much of a global leadership that is in short supply.	不幸的是，现有的解决方法或者过于缩手缩脚，或者需要太多供应稀缺的全球领导力。


The conundrum of global reform is that the proposals that go far enough, such as establishing a global financial regulator, are wildly unrealistic, while those that are realistic, such as reform of the IMF, fall far short of what is needed.	全球改革的难题是力度足够的提案，比如设立全球金融监管机构，却极端不切实际，而那些符合实际的提案，如改革国际货币基金组织，却远远解决不了问题。


What we need is a vision of globalization that is fully cognizant of its limits.	我们需要彻底了解全球化的限度。


We can start with a simple principle: We should strive not for maximum openness in trade and finance, but for levels of openness that leave ample room for the pursuit of domestic social and economic objectives in rich and poor countries alike.	我们可以从简单的原则开始：我们所追求的不该是最大限度的贸易和金融开放，而应让开放为富国和穷国同样留下充足的空间追求国内的社会经济目标。


In effect, the best way to save globalization is to not push it too far.	事实上，拯救全球化的最佳方式是不要做得太过火。


Consider a traffic analogy.	我们用交通来做类比。


One way to prevent traffic accidents is to require everyone to drive a similar car, travel at the same speed, and head in the same direction.	防止交通事故的一种方式是要求所有人都开相似的车，以同样的速度行驶，并去往相同的方向。


Another is to enforce some simple rules: don’t drive in the fast lane if going slow, stop at red lights, use a signal before a turn, and so on.	还有一种方法是执行某些简单的规则：开慢车的不要上快车道，红灯停车，转弯打灯，诸如此类。


The first approach may maximize the traffic load that can be carried safely, but it fails to take most people where they want to go and is ultimately self-defeating.	第一种方法或许能实现安全负载的最大化，但多数人无法去到想要的地方，最终还是会弄巧成拙。


The second approach allows drivers to make their own choices, even if this means that they will have to slow down or stop on occasion.	第二种方法允许司机自我选择，虽然他们可能被迫放慢速度或偶尔停车。


Similarly, healthy and sustainable globalization should not impose a straitjacket of common rules on everyone.	同样，健康和持续的全球化不应给所有人套上同样的规则枷锁。


The financial crisis laid bare the soft underbelly of globalization.	这次金融危机暴露了全球化的软肋。


It would be a mistake to respond by trying to take globalization to the next level.	试图以全球化升级作为应对之策是个错误。


The economic and political obstacles that block deep integration cannot be wished away by exhortations.	阻碍深层次融合的经济和政治障碍无法通过劝告来消除。


It would serve us far better to take these limits into account and scale down our ambitions.	如果我们能考虑到这样的限度，相应调整我们的目标，就能获得更多的好处。


The Burma Road Goes Through Beijing	缅甸的变革之路经过北京


NEW YORK amp#45;amp#45; Three hard facts are setting the boundaries for the talks United Nations negotiator Ibrahim Gambari is undertaking as he shuttles between Burma’s ruling generals and the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.	纽约—在联合国谈判专家Ibrahim Gambari斡旋于统治缅甸的将军们和被关押的在野党领袖昂山素季之间时，有三个关键性的事实确定了他的谈判边界。


First, despite the heroic leadership of the Buddhist clergy and the pro-democracy community, almost 50 years of military misrule and terror tactics have worn down Burma’s people, who will likely find it hard to maintain their defiance without obvious splits among the ruling generals or widespread desertions among ordinary soldiers.	首先，尽管有僧人和亲民主社团身先士卒的英勇行为，但近50年来的军政府暴政和恐怖政策已使缅甸人民深受其害。 他们很可能会发现要继续对现政权的挑战而又不引起将军统治阶层内部的明显裂隙或普通士兵的广泛逃弃现象是很困难的。


Second, Burma’s generals know that they face a stark choice: either maintain power or risk imprisonment, exile, and possible death.	其次，缅甸的将军们明白他们面临着无法回避的选择：要么继续掌权，要么就得面对入狱、流放甚至可能是死刑的风险。


In their eyes, this leaves them with virtually no choice but to hold on to power at all costs.	在他们看来，这实际上就是除了不惜一切代价继续把持大权之外别无选择的境地。


Finally, as long as China provides political, financial, and military support for Burma’s rulers, it will be all but impossible for any meaningful change to occur.	最后，只要中国继续为缅甸的统治者提供政治、财政和军事支持，缅甸就不可能发生真正有意义的变化。


Until China decides that it has more to gain from a more legitimate government in Burma than it does from the current incompetent military regime, little can happen.	在中国认识到它从一个合法的缅甸政府那里获得的利益要比从一个无能的军事政权那里获得的更多之前，什么都不会发生。


China’s decision to block the UN Security Council from condemning the Burmese regime’s assault on the Buddhist monks and other peaceful protestors underscores its long-standing political support for the junta.	中国决定阻止联合国安理会对缅甸政权镇压佛教僧人和其他和平示威者的行为进行谴责凸显了它对该统治集团的长期政治支持。


This past January, China, alongside Russia, vetoed a Security Council resolution that condemned Burma’s human rights record and called on the government to stop attacks on ethnic minorities, release political prisoners, and begin a transition towards national reconciliation and democracy.	今年一月，中国与俄罗斯一道否决了一项安理会决议。 该决议谴责缅甸的人权纪录并呼吁缅甸政府停止打击少数族裔、释放政治犯、并开始向民族和解和民主转变。


For years, China has also blocked meaningful sanctions against Burma.	多年以来，中国还阻止了对缅甸的有效制裁。


China’s economic ties to Burma’s rulers are strategically important for both sides.	中国与缅甸统治者之间的经济纽带对双方而言都具有重要的战略意义。


Annual bilateral trade, estimated at $1.1 billion – a huge figure, given Burma’s total GDP of $9.6 billion – provides an economic lifeline for the Burmese government.	双边的年贸易额据估计约为11亿美金—这对于GDP总量只有96亿美金的缅甸而言是个巨大的数字—是缅甸政府的经济生命线。


China is also Burma’s largest military supplier.	中国也是缅甸最大的军火供应国。


At the same time, the $2 billion oil pipeline that China is seeking to build from Burma’s southern coast to China’s Yunnan province will allow China to get Middle East oil to its southern provinces more easily and securely.	同时，中国正力图投资20亿美金修建从缅甸南部海岸到中国云南省的输油管道，这将会使中国更方便和安全地将中东原油输送到南方各省。


When completed, the pipeline will make China much less susceptible to foreign military pressure in the event of international conflict.	当此项目竣工之后，这些输油管道将使中国在可能爆发的国际冲突中更少地受到外国军事压力的影响。


So the stakes in Burma are high for China, as are Chinese fears of about how any future “national reconciliation” government might react to China’s record of complicity with the corrupt military rulers.	所以中国在缅甸有着重大利益，也因此担心未来的任何一个“民族和解政府”对中国与腐败的军政府合作的可能反应。


It should be remembered that America and its allies, faced with strategic fears of a similar type during the Cold War, also supported repugnant and oppressive regimes in places like Zaire, Chile, and Indonesia.	我们应该记得在冷战时期面临着同样战略担忧的美国及其盟国也支持了扎伊尔、智利和硬度尼西亚等国的暴虐政权。


But America and the West did, at key turning points, realize that times had changed so much that these dictators had outlived their usefulness.	但美国和西方在关键的转折点上意识到时过境迁，这些独裁者们已经失去了利用价值。


Thus, despots like Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines and Chun Doo-hwan in Korea were jettisoned, because the price of supporting their despicable regimes became greater than the benefits.	因此，如菲律宾的费迪南德•马科斯和韩国的全斗焕这样的暴君便被西方抛弃，因为支持这些为人不齿的政权的成本已经远远超出了能够获得的收益。


In today’s Internet age, the costs of China’s support for Burma’s generals are rising fast.	在当今的因特网时代，中国支持缅甸将军们的成本正在快速攀升。


Just as in Darfur, where China’s perceived support for the Sudanese government translated into harsh criticism and threats to brand the 2008 Olympics the “Genocide Games,” China’s backing of the Burmese generals, particularly if the death toll rises, could cause similar problems.	正如在达尔福尔，中国对苏丹政府的明显支持招来了严厉的批评，连2008北京奥运会也有被标记为“种族屠杀运动会”的危险。 中国对缅甸军政府的支持（特别是如果死亡人数继续增加）有可能会造成类似的后果。


Indeed, an Olympic boycott will become more likely if scenes of murdered or brutalized Buddhist monks are flashed around the world.	的确，如果被谋杀或摧残的僧人的图像被传送到全世界，那么就很可能引发对奥运会的抵制。


Moreover, Burma’s public health woes and drug and human trafficking are increasingly being exported to southern China.	另外，缅甸的公共医疗灾难和贩卖毒品及人口的活动正越来越影响到中国南部。


Although China has expressed some vague concerns over the crisis to the Burmese government, it has not taken any action that could meaningfully affect the regime’s calculations, despite its singularly unique leverage.	虽然中国就这一危机向缅甸政府表示了一定的关注，但它却没有采取任何能够真正影响该政权决策的行动，尽管中国在这方面有着独一无二的优势。


To encourage China to take the lead in fostering national reconciliation in Burma, the international community must convince China that pushing for reform and change can be a win-win proposition.	为了鼓励中国在催生缅甸民族和解的进程中担负起领导���的责任，国际社会必须让中国相信推动改革能够成为一个双赢的计划。


The international community must make clear that China’s interests would be protected during a transition to a more open society in Burma, and that some version of the oil pipeline project will be supported by any new regime.	国际社会必须清楚地表明中国的利益会在缅甸向更开放的社会转型的过程中得到保护，并且任何一个新政权都会支持某种形式的输油管道项目。


Because China has been competing with India for access to Burma’s natural resources, India also needs to be actively included in efforts to pressure the Burmese regime, a process that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) might effectively coordinate.	因为中国与印度为获得缅甸的自然资源而竞争，所以印度也需要被积极地纳入到向缅甸政权施压的努力当中。 这一进程可以由东盟进行有效协调。


In a statement issued on September 27, ASEAN foreign ministers expressed a surprising degree of condemnation of the crackdown in Burma.	在9月27日发表的一份声明中，东盟各国外长谴责缅甸发生的镇压事件的强烈程度令人颇感意外。


They could play an essential leading role in a process including the Burmese parties, China, India, the European Union, Russia, and the United States that could devise a roadmap for change in Burma.	他们可以发挥实质性的领导作用，联合缅甸各政党、中国、印度、欧盟、俄罗斯和美国为缅甸的变革制定一份路线图。


Such an international process simply cannot happen without China.	没有中国的参与，这样一个国际进程就不可能发生。


The road to change in Burma runs through Beijing.	缅甸的变革之路要经过北京。


The Bush in Obama	奥巴马身上的小布什印记


GUANTÁNAMO BAY, CUBA – Hearings are underway in the United States Senate to assess what to do with the 240 detainees still behind bars at Guantánamo Bay, and what will become of the military tribunals and detention without trial that the Bush administration and a compliant Congress put into place.	发自古巴关塔那摩湾——美国参议院近日举行了一系列听证会，用以评估如何处理仍被关押在关塔那摩监狱的240名囚犯，而小布什政府及其控制的国会所设立的军事法庭和关押制度将何去何从，亦在讨论的范围。


The US Congress is also debating what will happen to the detention camp itself, which was established in 2002 to house men who were allegedly “the worst of the worst,” in a setting deliberately framed by Bush attorneys as “legal outer space.”	同时国会针对这所监狱自身的去向也进行了辩论。 因为事实上，这所监狱就是小布什政府的法律顾问为了关押那些所谓“最穷凶极恶”的囚犯而故意设立的“法外之地”。


But are those Senate hearings actually window dressing on a new reality that is just as bad as the old one – and in some ways worse?	但这些参议院听证会是否只是在为监狱里发生的新情况文过饰非，而这些新状况跟原来的情况一样遭——甚至在某种程度上更加恶劣？


Military tribunals without due process are up and running again.	缺乏合法程序批准的军事法庭正如雨后的蘑菇般再次出现并投入运转。


While President Barack Obama has released a few prisoners, notably the Chinese Uighurs, and sent another for a real trial in New York City, he is now, chillingly, signalling that he is about to begin “preventive detention,” which would empower him to hold forever an unspecified number of prisoners without charges or trials.	虽然奥巴马释放了一些囚犯，特别是那些维吾尔族人，而将另一些囚犯押往纽约接受真正的法律审判，但如今他的行为却似乎发生了180度转向，他似乎有意采用一项“防范性拘留”政策，这政策将赋予他在不起诉和审讯的情况下永远拘留不定数量囚犯的权力。


On a visit to Guantánamo, Department of Defense spokesman Joe DellaVedova told me that a series of panels are reviewing the detainees’ files, a process that will take until this year’s end.	在一次对关塔那摩监狱的访问中，美国国防部发言人乔·德拉卫多瓦告诉我，已经有多个专责小组正重新审阅在押人员的档案，而整个过程将一直持续到今年年末。 这个程序会把囚犯分成三类：第一类将在美国国内的刑事法庭接受审判；


The review will sort the detainees into three categories: those who will be tried in criminal courts in the US; those who will be released and sent to other countries; and those who “can’t be released and can’t be tried and so have to be held indefinitely…what is being called ‘preventive detention.’”	第二类将被释放并遣送到其他国家； 剩下的一部分将是那些“既不能被释放也无法接受审判，因此将被无限期关押的……即所谓的‘防范性拘留’人员。


I was stunned.	我非常震惊。


DellaVedova’s comment suggested that the review process was merely political theatre.	德拉卫多瓦的话暗示着这样的重新审阅只不过是一场政治做秀。


If there is to be a genuine review of the accusations against these detainees, how can it be known in advance that the third category will be required?	如果政府是真心想要重新检讨这些囚犯的起诉档案的话，他们又怎么会提前知道需要设立第三项？


Indefinite preventive detention is, of course, the foundation of a police state.	众所周知，无定义罪名的防范性拘留就是一个警察国家赖以生存的基础。


Human rights organizations knew that Obama had prepared the way, in public-relations terms, for some criminal trials – talking up the “supermax” security of some US prisons, and noting that other terrorists have successfully been tried by America’s justice system.	人权组织已然知晓奥巴马会用一套华丽的公关说辞为某些刑事审判铺路——首先大肆赞扬美国一些监狱的“超高级”安全规格，然后指出其他恐怖分子已经成功接受了美国司法体系的审讯。


(Other democracies, such as the United Kingdom and Spain, always try terrorism suspects, including alleged Al Qaida members, in ordinary criminal trials).	（而其他民主国家，比如英国和西班牙，通常的做法就是在普通刑事法庭审讯恐怖嫌疑犯，甚至包括某些基地组织嫌疑人。 ）


But, six months after he ordered an end to torture and CIA “black sites,” and promised to close Guantánamo within a year, Obama seems to be re-branding Bush’s worst excesses.	但讽刺的是，在他下令停止虐囚、关闭中央情报局的“黑据点”，并保证一年内关闭关塔那摩监狱的言论刚刚发出才半年，奥巴马就似乎准备重新延续小布什的最严重过失。


He has brought in planeloads of journalists to Guantánamo Bay to show them a “safe, transparent, and humane” facility that now offers fresh baklava and video viewing from a shackled loveseat.	他带领成队的记者到关塔那摩湾，向他们展示“安全、透明、人性化 ”的监狱设施，监狱现在向囚犯们提供新鲜土耳其甜点，还允许他们坐在有镣铐的沙发上看录像。


But the roughly 240 detainees remain incarcerated without having been charged with any crime, and will still not get a fair trial, even under Obama’s proposed military commissions.	但仍有大约240名囚犯在没有受到任何指控的情况下依然遭到拘禁，并将依然得不到公平的审讯，连奥巴马提议的军事委员会也不会搭理他们。


After all, the prosecutor, the judge, and the “panel” are all to be US government employees.	一句话，所有参与审判的不论公诉人，法官和“特别小组”，背后的老板都是美国政府。


Furthermore, Obama’s Justice Department has invoked Bush’s argument that the State Secrets Act bars evidence about torture from being disclosed, which means that anyone who was tortured can never appear in court.	而奥巴马政府的司法部门还援引布什的说辞，称《国家机密法案》禁止公开有关虐俘的证据。 这就意味着被虐待的战俘永远无法出庭受审。


Moreover, Obama has sought to suppress hundreds of photographs depicting sexual assault in US-run prisons, and has done nothing to roll back the Patriot Act.	此外，奥巴马政府还掩盖了数百张记录美国管理的监狱内囚犯遭到性侵犯的照片，并对《爱国者法案》纵容执法部门侵犯公民私隐的行为无动于衷。


Why should Obama, a constitutional scholar, be backtracking this way?	那么为什么连奥巴马这么一个宪法学者都会重蹈覆辙呢？


First, he does not dare appear to be “soft on terror.”	首先，他不敢让自己在反恐问题上显得软弱。


Second, perhaps he needs to be able to try the Guantánamo detainees in a rigged setting, or even keep them from trial forever: lawyers claim that torture, including sexual torture, was so endemic in the CIA and the military that Obama could be holding scores, if not hundreds, of prisoners whose bodies are crime scenes.	其次，也许他需要通过不正当手段来审讯那些关塔那摩囚犯，甚至永远不审讯他们：律师们声称，包括性虐待在内的虐待行为在中央情报局和美军治下是如此常见，以致奥巴手里就掌握着几十名甚至几百名囚犯，而他们的身体就是犯罪的现场证据。


According to Wells Dixon, a lawyer at the Center for Constitutional Rights who represents some of the detainees, the Obama administration cannot risk calling the torture practices crimes, so it calls them “classified sources and methods” that cannot be revealed in court.	根据来自宪法权力中心、代表某些囚犯权益的律师威尔斯·迪克松所言，奥巴马政府不敢冒险将虐俘行为定为罪名，而将其称作不能提交给法庭的“机密情报来源及手段”。


“I can’t even tell you about the way my clients were tortured or I will be prosecuted,” he says.	“我甚至不能告诉你我的委托人被虐待的方式，不然我会被起诉。 ”这位律师说。


In fact, even the explanation of why this material is classified cannot be reproduced, because it is privileged.	而事实上，连这些材料因何被定义为机密都无法被���释，因为它们享有特权，不受法律制约。


Nor has the access of lawyers to their Guantánamo clients improved under Obama.	同时在奥巴马治下，律师们接触他们那些关塔那摩委托人的途径也没有得到任何改善。


“We are subject in all detainee cases to a protective order,” Dixon says. “Under this order, everything the detainee says is classified,” unless the Department of Defense “Privilege Team” decides otherwise.	“我们办理的所有在押人员案件都必须服从于一个保护令，”迪克松说，“在这个保护令之下，囚犯所说的每一句话都是机密”，除非国防部“特权小组”另有决定。


Dixon then told me a revealing story of one of his clients, Majid Khan, a so-called “high-value detainee” who was held for three years in CIA “black sites.”	之后迪克松给我讲述了一个和他的委托人有关的典型事例，其中的主人公玛吉德·汗是一名所谓“高价值的在押犯”，他在中央情报局的“黑据点”已被关押三年之久。


Khan was tortured, Dixon said, though “the government would say that what happened to him is an ‘intelligence source or method.’”	迪克松说，尽管玛吉德受到虐待，政府也只会宣称他的遭遇是一种“情报来源或获取方式。


Because Dixon has a security clearance, he cannot discuss those classified “sources and methods.”	因为迪克松已经宣誓保密并通过了忠贞调查，因此不得同他人讨论那些机密的“来源和途径”。


On the other hand, Dixon continued, “When the government does something to [Khan] that they say is classified, they have disclosed to him classified information.	但另一方面，迪克松接着说，“当政府对玛吉德做了一些‘机密’行为之时，那就意味着政府对玛吉德泄露了机密。


But since he doesn’t have a security clearance, there is nothing that prevents him, unlike me, from saying to the outside world, ‘This is what they did to me.’ Nothing prevents that – except for the fact that he is physically in custody.”’	但玛吉德并没有像我这样宣誓保密，因此也没有什么能够阻止他对外界诉说他的遭遇，除非把他这本人监禁住。


The “logical conclusion,” according to Dixon, is that Khan “must be detained for the rest of his life – regardless of whether he is ever charged with a crime – because if he was ever released, nothing would prevent him from disclosing this information.	因此“逻辑上的结论“就是，迪克松总结道，“不论是否被指控，玛吉德的余生都将在关押中度过。 因为假如他被释放，就没有任何人能阻止他泄露那些机密。


Majid Khan – and there are many more like him – is a classic product of the Bush administration’s disregard for the fundamental principles of the rule of law.	玛吉德·汗——连同众多与他类似的人一道——都是布什政府漠视法治基本原则的产物。


Unfortunately, Obama’s administration, for all its lofty rhetoric, appears too willing to perpetuate it.	但不幸的是，奥巴马政府的人，在他们那一套故作高尚的花言巧语之下，似乎非常乐意将这个恶行延续下去。


The Bush Repression	布什的压迫


How will President George W. Bush’s administration be remembered historically?	布什当局将会在史上留下何种评价？


After five years in office, and with another three years to go, some answers are already apparent.	布什当政已经五年，还有三年时间执政，某些答案已经明显。


Others are emerging gradually.	其他一些正在逐渐显现。


The latter category includes an increasing assault on civil liberties within the United States that now compares to that of Richard Nixon’s administration more than thirty years ago.	后一种包括在美国对公民自由的攻击变本加厉，足可以同三十多年前尼克松当局相比。


Of course, civil liberties were bound to suffer in the wake of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.	当然，2001年9月11日恐怖主义攻击以后，公民自由注定要受到损害。


Throughout American history, threats to national security, whether real or imagined, have led to clampdowns on the rights of citizens and, to a far greater extent, on the rights of immigrants and others suspected of acting in the interests of alien forces.	纵观美国历史，对国家安全的威胁，无论是真实的还是想象的，都会导致对公民权利的压制，而且，对移民以及其他受到怀疑为外国势力利益工作的人的权利更是如此。


In the twentieth century, abuses of civil liberties were particularly severe during four periods.	在二十世纪中，有四个阶段对公民自由的侵犯尤其严重。


In the years 1917 to 1919, US participation in World War I and anarchist bombings after the war led to almost two thousand federal prosecutions, mass roundups of aliens, and summary deportations.	1917年到1919年之间，美国参加第一次世界大战以及战后无政府主义者炸弹攻击后，导致将近两千起联邦起诉、大规模搜捕外国人以及迅速遣返。


During World War II, Japan’s attack on the US was followed by the internment of more than 120,000 Japanese-Americans because of their race, including many who were born in the US.	二战期间，日本进攻美国后，超过12万日裔美国人由于他们的种族而遭到关押，其中包括许多出生在美国的人。


In the late 1940’s and the 1950’s, the Cold War and fears that the Red Menace would sap American resolve from within led to myriad anti-subversive programs, with tens of thousands of Americans losing their livelihoods as a result.	二十世纪四十年代末和五十年代初，冷战以及担心红色威胁将从内部削弱美国的决心产生难以计数的反颠覆项目，数以万计的美国人因此丢掉了生计。


Finally, during the Nixon years, the president’s paranoia about opposition to the Vietnam War and to his policies fuelled a pattern of abuses that eventually brought about his resignation in disgrace.	最后，在尼克松年代，总统对反对越战及其政策势力发生偏执，形成侵权的模式，最终导致其黯然辞职。


The Nixon administration’s legacy is particularly instructive in assessing the Bush record.	尼克松当局的遗产对于评估布什的业绩尤其具有指导性作用。


Though Americans tend to lump Nixon’s violations of civil liberties together under the heading of “Watergate,” much more was involved than the break-in at Democratic Party headquarters and the subsequent cover-up.	尽管美国人倾向于将尼克松违反公民权利归结为“水门事件”，但是，其中所包含的东西要远远超过入窃民主党总部以及随后的掩盖行为。


The participants in those events included the “Plumbers,” a personal secret police established by Nixon and so named because one of their tasks was to eliminate leaks of information that the White House did not want to disclose.	那些事件的参与者包括所谓的“管道工”，即由尼克松建立的私人秘密警察。 之所以这样命名，因为是他们的其中一项任务是清除泄露白宫所不愿意披露的信息。


Another secret assault on civil liberties was Nixon’s adoption of the “Huston Plan” which authorized political surveillance by burglary, electronic eavesdropping, and the use of the military to spy on civilians.	对公民自由的另一个秘密破坏是尼克松采纳“休斯顿计划”。 这一计划授权通过入室行窃、电子窃听以及对平民使用军队监视来进行政治性侦察。


Nixon used these methods against political opponents, journalists, and government employees suspected of disloyalty to the president.	尼克松针对政敌、记者、以及被怀疑对总统不忠的政府雇员使用这些方法。


As far as we know, Bush has not gone that far.	就我们所知，布什尚未如此。


Nevertheless, electronic eavesdropping without court authorization, of the sort Bush ordered starting in 2002, played a particularly important part in Nixon’s downfall.	但是，布什2002年下令开始对未经法院授权的电子窃听在尼克松的倒台中起到了极为重要的作用。


One of the three counts against Nixon in the vote to impeach Nixon by the House of Representatives’ Judiciary Committee was based on such eavesdropping.	美国众议院司法委员会弹劾尼克松的投票中的三项指控其中之一就是此类窃听。


In fact, Bush pursued his policy despite a 1978 law – adopted in response to the Nixon-era abuses – that specifically requires judicial approval, and in contradiction to his public assurance that no such eavesdropping takes place without a court order.	实际上， 1978年的一部法律为专门对付尼克松时代的侵权行为，特别要求（窃听）需要司法批准。 布什置该法律于不顾而推行其政策，违反了他所作出的保证，即在没有法院令状的情况下不会进行此类窃听。


Now that his electronic surveillance program has been exposed, Bush’s Justice Department has launched an investigation into how the news became public, threatening the journalists who reported the information.	现在，由于其电子窃听行为被曝光，布什的司法部开展调查，要发现这一新闻如何为公众所知晓，并威胁报道这一消息的记者。


But even before the latest revelations, the Bush administration’s assaults on civil liberties were legion, including its imprisonment of hundreds of men without charges at Guantánamo Bay in an effort to evade judicial review of their cases.	但是，即使在最新披露之前，布什当局对公民自由的侵犯也是大量的，包括为了逃避司法审议而在关塔纳摩基地未经指控而囚禁数以百计的人。


It also rounded up, jailed, and deported hundreds of aliens in an anti-terrorist drive none of whose targets was shown to have any link to terrorism.	它还在反恐行动中搜捕、囚禁以及遣返了数以百计的外国人，而他们中没有一人被证明与恐怖主义有联系。


The list does not stop there.	其所作所为还不止这些。


Bush’s subordinates authorized methods of interrogation that led to torture, and his administration adamantly resisted legislation that would ban its use.	布什的下属授权导致酷刑的审讯方法。 其行政当局顽固抵制禁止使用酷刑的立法。


It even insisted that it could imprison an American citizen, José Padilla, incommunicado for an indefinite period without criminal charges until, faced with the prospect of Supreme Court review, it suddenly pressed charges that had nothing to do with the allegations that had formed the basis for his detention.	它甚至坚持说它可以将美国公民何塞·帕迪拉未经刑事指控无限期单独囚禁，直到美国最高法院即将进行审议，它才突然对他提出了与关押他的理由毫无关系的指控。


Indeed, a hallmark of the Bush administration’s violations of civil liberties is that many involve efforts to evade judicial review.	确实，布什当局违反公民自由的特征之一是，其中许多行径包含逃避司法审议。


Guantánamo, the deportations, the Padilla case, and the electronic eavesdropping program all share this characteristic.	关塔纳摩基地、遣返、帕迪拉案件以及电子窃听行为都具有这一特点。


At the same time, Bush has systematically packed the federal courts with judges chosen for their readiness to defer to presidential power.	与此同时，布什还有系统地挑选愿意遵从总统权力的法官充斥到联邦法院中。


His latest nominee to the US Supreme Court, Judge Samuel Alito, exemplifies this trend.	他最新提名阿利托为最高法院法官就是这一趋势的例证。


The mood in the US today is far from the point that it reached in 1973 and 1974, when the drive to impeach Nixon and convict him in the US Senate forced him to resign.	今天美国的情绪与1973年和1974年这两年所达到的相差很大。 当时，弹劾尼克松并在美国参议院将其定罪大运动迫使其辞职。


But, while it seems safe to predict that Bush will serve out the rest of his term, it also appears certain that history will look upon him as a president who sought to undermine civil liberties.	尽管基本可以预计布什将会完成剩余的任期，但是看起来毫无疑问，历史将会把他视为一个企图破坏公民自由的总统。


Unfortunately, given Bush’s repeated assertions – in defiance of America’s constitutional tradition of checks and balances – that his office endows him with unilateral powers to violate rights, he appears to be untroubled by that prospect.	不幸的是，鉴于布什多次违反美国的宪法制衡传统，声称其总统职位授予其侵犯权利的单边权力，布什目前看起来并不会受到弹劾的困扰。


The California Syndrome	加利福尼亚综合症


STANFORD – California has long been a harbinger of national and global trends (both wonderful and overindulgent), a birthplace of innovation in everything from technology and entertainment to lifestyles.	发自斯坦福——一直以来，加利福尼亚都堪称一块引领美国本土乃全世界潮流（无论是美好远景还是骄奢之风）的宝地，是科技到娱乐乃至生活方式的创新孵化池。


The world’s most important technology companies still make their start – and their headquarters – in California: Apple, Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Google, and Facebook, to name a few in the neighborhood where I teach and live.	全球最具分量的科技企业——苹果、英特尔、思科、甲骨文，谷歌和脸谱——都从这里萌芽并依然将总部设于此地，而类似的企业在我执教和生活的斯坦福大学附近还有许许多多。


California once was a source of widely shared rising standards of living and tremendous upward economic mobility.	加利福尼亚还曾经是居民生活水平广泛提高且经济大幅上扬的源泉。


The state had America’s best public schools and state universities.	该州拥有全美最好的公立学校和州立大学。


Its citizens were less socially and economically stratified than in many other US states.	相对于其他各州来说该州公民在社会和经济方面的阶级差别都不甚显著。


After World War II, Americans migrated steadily to California, a land of opportunity, great natural beauty, and some of the world’s most fertile agricultural land.	自二战结束后加利福尼亚都一直保持着居民净流入的趋势，因为这是一方充满了机会，自然风光绝美且坐拥世界最肥沃土地的乐土。


But then something went radically wrong, and understanding why offers lessons for national and subnational governments everywhere.	但随后这里却滋生了一些严重问题，而对这些问题的解读对于全球各国及其下级政府都有借鉴意义。


California’s economy, which used to outperform the rest of the country, now substantially underperforms.	过去一直占据全美头把交椅的加利福尼亚经济如今大幅衰退。 12.


The unemployment rate, at 12.4%, is higher than in every other state except Nevada.	4%的失业率位列全国第二，仅比内华达州好一点。


In recent years, net migration has reversed, with hundreds of thousands of workers and their families leaving the state in search of better job opportunities elsewhere.	近几年来，移民净迁入的状况也发生了彻底调转，成千上万的劳动者及其家庭都转而前往其他各州寻找更好的工作机会。


California’s public schools, from kindergarten to high school, rank poorly on standardized tests.	加利福尼亚的公立教育体系——从幼儿园到高中——都在教育标准测试中表现差劲。


The state is an epicenter of the housing bust and the foreclosure crisis.	此外该地业已成为住宅市场泡沫爆破以及银行贷款拖欠危机的重灾区。


Silicon Valley CEOs say they will not expand in California because of high taxes and burdensome regulation, which make the state uncompetitive.	那些硅谷企业的CEO们都声称不会在加利福尼亚扩张自己的企业，因为过高的税率以及过多的限制降低了该州的竞争力。


With 12% of America’s population, California accounts for more than 31% of its public-assistance recipients.	该州人口只占全美的12%，发放的政府援助总金额却占了31%。


It has a vast and growing prison population, with annual spending on each incarcerated inmate equivalent to a middle-income California household’s after-tax income.	监狱服刑人员数量极为庞大且不断增加，而政府在一个囚犯身上的年均支出竟然相等于该地一个中产家庭的税后年收入。


Meanwhile, the state lurches from fiscal tragedy to fiscal farce.	与此同时，该州的财政状况正从一场悲剧演变成一场闹剧。


Governor Jerry Brown (who was also Governor in the 1970’s) inherits a budget deficit of $26 billion. And that’s before the coming deluge from generous public employee pensions and health costs.	现任州长杰瑞·布朗（此人曾于1970年代担任州长）接手的是一笔历届政府积累下来的总额达260亿美元的财政赤字，这还是在大规模支出公共雇员养老金和医疗支出之前的数字。


At the heart of California’s problem is its deranged progressive tax system, which includes among the highest personal-income, sales, corporate, and gas rates of any state. Only property taxes are below the US average.	而加利福尼亚的最核心问题则是其混乱的累进税收系统，其在个人所得，消费，企业所得以及燃油方面的征税额度都排在全美前列，只有不动产方面的税率低于全美平均水平。


California’s government collects about one-half of its income-tax revenue from the top 1% of the state’s taxpayers.	加利福尼亚州政府大约一半的年收入都来自对最富有的那1%纳税人征收的个人所得税。


But the system’s extreme progressivity makes proceeds so volatile that the state continually experiences boom-bust cycles of rapidly rising revenue, inevitably followed by collapse.	但这一系统的极端累进税却使得收入高低不定，陷入了一时收入猛增，接着又必定发生锐减的怪圈。


The revenue is all spent on the upswing, forcing disruptive emergency cutbacks on the way down.	而所有这些收入都抵消不了不断增加的支出，以至于政府只能经济下跌过程中不断进行紧急开支缩减。


Attempts to build a serious “rainy day fund” have failed badly.	政府尝试建立一个“应急基金”的举动也最终惨遭失败。


The political economy of California’s budget has taken the progressive tax-and-spend experiment to the breaking point, threatening the state’s ability to fund basic services, from prisons and parks to education and health care, even those aimed at helping its most vulnerable citizens.	加利福尼加州预算事务所隐含的政治经济矛盾使得这场累进的收税-支出实验濒临破产，直接威胁到了该州资助从监狱，公园到教育医疗等基础公共服务的能力，甚至连那些旨在扶助那些弱势公民的政府项目都难逃厄运。


California’s government rarely manages to satisfy the balanced-budget requirement in the state constitution.	加利福尼亚州政府很少能满足州宪法中对预算平衡的要求。


It winds up borrowing “temporarily” with short-term debt; then, as borrowing accumulates, it is refinanced with longer-term securities. Spending is temporarily reduced and taxes raised, but the long-run structural deficit remains, a pattern now repeated in many state capitals and the primary reason for the current political turmoil over budgets and public sector unions.	它一方面借下大笔“临时”短期债务，等这些债务积累到一定程度了，它又用发行长期政府债券的方式来筹钱还债，支出暂时被压低而税率进一步升高，但长期的结构性赤字却依然存在，而这一模式在许多州的财政上都有出现，并成为了当前由预算和公共部门公会所引发的政治海啸的主要原因。


Many other strains are also self-inflicted.	还有其他许多问题都是该州自己造成的。


From federal water shutoffs, in the name of protecting a tiny fish, which have decimated agriculture and left tens of thousands unemployed, to severe local zoning restrictions that drive home prices higher, California now has a wide array of problems begging for solutions.	从以保护一种小型鱼类的名义而重创了当地农业并导致数万人失业的联邦停止供水措施，到导致住宅价格升高的严格本地分区限制，加利福尼亚现在有堆积如山的问题亟待解决。


Illegal immigrants perform a substantial share of the state economy’s menial and physically demanding work.	非法劳工一直都承担着该州经济中最卑贱的体力工作。


Absent a sensible guest-worker program, they remain in the shadows, and they and their children crowd public services. (In one school in Los Angeles, a teacher reported 70 kids who came and went during the year in a class of 25, and more than a dozen languages are spoken in some school districts).	由于没有一个合理的引进海外劳工制度，这些人依然处于灰色地带，而他们及其子女却大量占用了公共服务（在洛杉矶的某所学校，教师报告说一个25人的班竟然涌进了70个孩子，而有些学区的课堂上竟然有来自超过12种语言地区的学生就读）。


The state’s extensive environmental and energy regulation, including micromanaging carbon emissions, in combination with globalization, has driven away much of California’s manufacturing and many of its middle-class jobs.	该州广泛实施的环境和能源使用限制，包括对碳排放的微观管理，加上全球化的影响，已经导致本州许多制造业企业倒闭，大量中层职位流失。


Among US states, California still ranks first in technology, agriculture, and entertainment. But it also stands at or near the top in deficits, tax rates, prison inmates, and, by a wide margin, welfare recipients relative to population.	在全美各州之中，加利福尼亚在科技，农业和娱乐方面依然名列前茅，但它同时也在赤字，税率，囚犯数量以及人均政府援助支出方面也居高不下。


It ranks last or near the bottom in business climate, housing affordability, and state bond rating (below even the US territory of Puerto Rico).	它在营商环境，住宅可支付能力以及州政府债券评级（甚至低于比美属波多黎各的债券评级）方面都排名极低。


It’s a complex picture, but at its core is a high-tax welfare state run amok.	该地的问题很复杂，但其核心就是一个陷入混乱的高税收福利州。


No one should write off California; it still has great strengths.	没人可以忽视加利福尼亚； 它依然拥有巨大的能量。


And it can turn some of its short-term problems, such as the pressures arising from ethnic and linguistic diversity (the state is now 37% Hispanic and 13% Asian) into long-term strengths in the global economy.	同时也能将其中一些短期问题，比如由种族以及语言多样化（该州目前分别有37%和13%的西班牙裔和亚裔人口）转化成全球经济的长期力量。


But its political class will have to confront some hard realities and face up to the fact that Californians who pay no income tax (almost half the workforce) will have to start paying for services, and that services will have to be more carefully targeted.	但其政治领导人将必须承担某些残酷的现实并正视一个事实，那就是那些不缴纳所得税的加利福尼亚人（约占总劳动者数量的一半）将必须为公共服务付费，而这些公共服务也必须更精确的锁定其服务人群。


A healthy democracy cannot have half the population paying taxes and the other half collecting benefits.	一个健康的民主制度不能令一半人辛苦缴税而另一半人却坐收渔利。


Relying on ever-higher taxes to fund payments to an outsized population of benefit recipients is a recipe for exporting prosperity elsewhere.	依靠更加高昂的税率去支付一个过于庞大的受援助人口数量等于把繁荣拱手送给其他各州。


That is one California trend that others emulate at their peril.	但不幸的是，这股“加利福尼亚风潮”却也成为了其他各州争相冒险模仿的趋势。


The Cancer Season	致癌季节


As summer beckons, we should take a moment to focus on the sun's dark side.	当夏季又向我们走来，我们真该花点时间，了解一下太阳阴暗的一面。


The source of all life on Earth, the sun is also a fountain of environmental carcinogens.	尽管是地球上所有生命的源泉，太阳也辐射出大量的致癌物质。


Specifically, we now know that the sun's ultraviolet radiation is the primary cause of most skin cancers.	具体地讲，我们现在知道太阳紫外线的辐射是多数皮肤癌的主要诱因。


Skin cancer, long thought to be a disease of little public health significance, has now become epidemic.	长久以来，人们都认为对公众健康危害微不足道的皮肤癌如今也大有流行之势。


An estimated 90,000 new cases of malignant melanoma and well over one million cases of non-melanoma skin cancer will occur in the United States this year.	今年一年，预计全美将新发恶性皮肤癌90，000例，超过8，000人会因此丧生；


Melanoma will cause 8,000 deaths, and non-melanoma skin cancer will kill another 2,000.	非恶性皮肤癌也将突破100万例，夺去另外2，000条无辜的生命。


Melanoma is now the most common cancer in women aged 24 to 35.	恶性皮肤癌已经成了24到35岁的当代女性中发病率最高的癌症。


Once a disease of men in their fifties and sixties, it is not unusual for women in their twenties to develop basal cell cancer or squamous cell cancer.	曾几何时，这种病只在五六十岁的男性中流行，而现在，20多岁的女性患基细胞或上皮细胞癌者并不罕见。


While the incidence of skin cancer has risen dramatically, so has our understanding of its causes.	皮肤癌发病率大幅增长的同时，我们对这种疾病的理解也日益深入。


For over fifty years, ultraviolet radiation from the sun has been the number one suspected cause of skin cancer.	50多年来，人们一直怀疑阳光中的紫外线辐射是皮肤癌的最大诱因。


Epidemiologic data from Australia, animal studies with artificial sources of ultraviolet light, and the development of skin cancer in individuals with a genetic inability to correct the DNA damage caused by ultraviolet radiation provided circumstantial evidence of the connection.	澳洲的流行病学数据、人造紫外线照射的动物学研究、以及基因存在问题，无法纠正紫外线DNA伤害的人患皮肤癌的几率，提供了证明联系存在的详尽证据。


Recent work has made the causal link between the sun and skin cancer at the molecular and cellular level.	不久前的研究从分子和细胞的层次上证明：阳光和皮肤癌之间确实存在着因果关系。


Ultraviolet radiation causes specific and unique mutations in the tumor suppressor gene that produces a protein called p53.	紫外线照射导致肿瘤抑止基因产生明确、独特的变化，这种基因能产生一种名为P53的蛋白。


This protein is involved in a process called  apoptosis in which damaged cells commit "suicide" to ensure that their defective genes are not passed on to daughter cells.	P53蛋白参与所谓的"凋亡"过程，命令受损细胞"自我终结"，以确保自身的基因缺陷不会遗传给下一代。


(This is perhaps the first indication that self-sacrifice may be an intrinsic human trait!)	（这首次显示自我牺牲也许是人类固有的内在特征！


Damaged by the sun, but not quite able to commit suicide, the mutated cell continues to proliferate at the expense of normal surrounding cells, resulting in a pre-cancerous growth that can progress to a full-blown squamous cell carcinoma.	）如果细胞变异后受到阳光的损害却不能"自我终结"，就会向周围的正常细胞扩散，发生早期癌变，最终完全转化为上皮细胞癌。


But how should we communicate to people about skin cancer and its prevention?	但我们怎样告诉人们皮肤癌及预防之道？


If our key message is "stay out of the sun forever," we are doomed to fail.	如果我们的核心信息是"永远不要晒太阳"，那么就注定了失败的命运。


Creating a culture of cave dwellers is no way to decrease the incidence of skin cancer.	减少皮肤癌发病率的方法不是开创穴居者文化。


Moreover, in educating the public we confront formidable forces: cultural icons who are as bronze as the statuary in the Louvre, the sheer pleasure of being in the sun, and the  perceived incremental health benefits of ultraviolet radiation.	此外，教育公众的时候，我们面临着难以克服的障碍，包括卢浮宫雕像般古铜皮肤的文化内涵、沐浴阳光的纯粹乐趣和人们眼中紫外线的健康功效。


The dearth of pale actors, actresses, corporate leaders, and politicians confirms that a tan is identified with health, wealth, and power, rather than the travails of the working class, as in the past.	面色苍白的男女影星、公司领袖和政坛人物已经少得可怜，这表明晒成褐色的皮肤代表着健康、财富和权力，而不再像过去那样象征劳动阶层的终日辛苦。


The artificial tanning industry promises that ultraviolet radiation from their machines causes less damage than natural sunlight.	人工晒黑业承诺：机器射出的紫外线比太阳的自然辐射伤害要小。


But in both cases, a tan is the body's response to injury.	但无论哪种情况，晒黑都是人体受伤的反应。


Microscopic pigment granules produced by skin pigment cells aggregate around the cell's nucleus to shield the DNA from the marauding rays and prevent mutation.	皮肤色素细胞产生的微小色素颗粒聚集在细胞核旁，保护DNA免受紫外线侵袭，防止细胞发生变异。


It is irrelevant whether the ultraviolet radiation came from a bulb or a star.	究竟紫外线是来自灯泡还是某个星体，这并不重要。


Whether natural or artificial, ultraviolet radiation causes the skin to age prematurely.	不管自然还是人造，紫外线辐射都会让皮肤过早衰老。


The inescapable irony is that teenagers and young women pursue a tan to look more attractive, but trade a moment or two of sunny radiance for a whole lifetime of premature wrinkles, fine lines, and haggard-looking skin.	无法逃避的讽刺是青少年和年轻女性为增加魅力对晒黑趋之若骛，但这一两次的古铜肤色换来的却是一生皱纹早现、细纹密布和形容枯槁。


As young people consider themselves immortal, not even appeals to lifelong vanity, let alone warnings about cancer, are sufficient to deter them from the tanning booths.	年青人自认为长生不老，甚至不留意保护一生的美丽，单纯的癌症警告更无法将他们从日光棚中拉开。


But the difficulties of educating the public about the causes of skin cancer do not diminish our obligation to try.	但皮肤癌成因公众教育所面临的困难并没有减轻我们的尝试之责。


There are enough other diseases about which we do not have a clue as to the cause.	很多其它疾病的成因我们都不了解。


With skin cancer, we know very well how we can prevent it - and prevention is always easier than treatment.	但就皮肤癌来说，我们十分清楚预防要做些什么¾而预防总比治疗容易很多。


A good place to start is to ensure that the public has access to accurate information.	绝佳的开始方法是确保公众能够获得准确的信息。


While pseudoscience and the anti-aging industry represent an important source of potential misinformation, the Internet often provides damaging false information as well.	伪科学及抗衰老行业是潜在错误信息的首要来源，因特网也常会提供有害的误导。


Amazingly, the Internet has the same level of credibility with the patient as television does with the consumer: "I read it on the Web, so it must be true."	令人惊讶的是，病人对因特网的信任程度可以和消费者对电视相媲美："我在网上看到的，因此一定不会错。 "


At the same time, tanning parlors should be regulated.	同时对日光浴场所的管理急待加强。


While barbers, hairdressers, taxi drivers, bar owners, and doctors are often licensed, permits are rarely required to operate a tanning parlor.	虽然理发师、美容师、出租司机、酒吧老板和医生都需要执照，经营日光房却鲜有资格要求。


None of the other professions listed above, however, knowingly exposes its clients to a confirmed environmental carcinogen.	但迄今为止，上述所有行业无一能使客户暴露在确定无疑的致癌环境中。


Until the tanning industry chooses to police itself, customers should eschew the bulbs and pursue the spray: wear an artificial tan.	除非日光浴行业选择自律，否则病人们应该远离灯泡而采用喷浴：选择人工晒黑。


This preventable disease should be the focus of a comprehensive educational campaign similar to anti-smoking campaigns, which are now bearing fruit in many countries.	像已在很多国家取得成果的禁烟活动一样，上述可预防疾病也应当成为综合性教育活动的核心。


In addition, scientific research on this most accessible of human organs will continue to identify innovative treatments and modes of prevention, which may well become applicable to other cancers.	不仅如此，对人体最外露器官的科学研究将继续找到创新疗法和预防模式，这对其它癌症的治疗可能也有帮助。


The Case Against Emergency Food Aid	论反对紧急食品援助


Niger’s food emergency has reached the world’s headlines, but the crisis there is only one part of a much larger disaster.	尼日尔的粮食紧缺状况已经见诸世界各地的报端，然而那里的危机仅仅是更大规模灾难的一部分。


On an extended trip this summer through rural areas of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa on behalf of the United Nations, I visited countless villages afflicted with extreme hunger and struggling to survive against the odds.	今夏，我代表联合国在亚洲、中东和非洲的农村地区进行了长时间的访问，走访了无数陷于饥荒、挣扎在生死线上的村庄。


The villages that I visited – in Tajikistan, Yemen, Mali, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Malawi, Cambodia, and elsewhere – reflect the condition of hundreds of millions of impoverished people worldwide.	我访问的这些村庄——遍布塔吉克斯坦、也门、马里、埃塞俄比亚、卢旺达、马拉维、柬埔寨及其他地方——反映了全世界数以亿计的贫困人口的现状。


Whether caused by drought, exhausted soils, locusts, lack of high-yield seeds, the results were the same: desperation, disease, and death.	贫困的原因不论是干旱、土壤贫瘠、蝗虫灾害、还是缺乏高产作物的种子，结果都是一样的：绝望、疾病和死亡。


Incredibly, the actions of the richest countries – which promised solidarity with the world’s poorest people at the G-8 Summit in July – have intensified the hunger crisis.	让人难以置信的是，那些最富有的国家——在七月的八国会议上信誓旦旦地要和世界上最贫困的人民团结友好的国家——他们的行为加剧了饥荒。


Even today, donor governments’ aid efforts are poorly directed.	即便是今天，捐助国政府的援助工作仍在舍本逐末。


They respond to hunger emergencies such as Niger’s with food relief, but fail to help with long-lasting solutions.	他们用食品救济来对付尼日尔等地的粮食紧缺，却没有帮忙想出长远的解决办法。


The expanding hunger crisis reflects a lethal combination of growing rural populations and inadequate food yields.	不断扩大的饥荒反映了农村人口不断增加和粮食产量不足的致命结合。


Rural populations are growing because poor farm households choose to have many children, who work as farmhands and serve as social security for their parents.	农村人口增加是因为贫穷的农户选择生养许多子女，这些子女可以成为农田里的帮手，也是其父母防老的保障。


This intensifies poverty in the next generation, as average farm sizes shrink.	然而随着平均耕地的减少，这种情况会加剧下一代的贫困。


Food yields per acre (or hectare) are inadequate because impoverished farm households lack some or all of the four inputs needed for modern and productive agriculture: soil-nutrient replenishment (through organic and chemical fertilizers), irrigation or other water-management techniques, improved seed varieties, and sound agricultural advice.	每英亩（或公顷）粮食产量不足是因为贫困农户缺少现代化高产农业所必需的四项投入的部分或全部，即：土壤肥料的补充（通过有机肥料和化肥）、灌溉或其他供水管理技术、改良的种子品种、以及科学的农业顾问。


The problem is especially severe in landlocked countries like Mali, Niger, Rwanda, and Malawi, where high transport costs leave villages isolated from markets, and in regions that depend on rainfall rather than river-based irrigation.	在马里、尼日尔、卢旺达和马拉维等村庄因高额的运输成本而与市场脱节的内陆国家，以及缺少河流、靠雨水灌溉的地区，问题尤其严重。


Yields, on average, barely support survival, and crop failures are common and deadly, while long-term global climate change, caused mainly by high energy consumption in the rich countries, may be exacerbating the frequency and severity of droughts.	产量普遍难以糊口，到处是严重的作物减产，同时长期的全球气候变化——主要是由富裕国家对能源的大量消耗造成的——或许还在提高旱灾的频率和严重性。


These impoverished villages need financial help to buy vital inputs for farming and to invest in basic infrastructure such as roads and electrification.	这些贫困村庄需要经济援助来购买耕种所需的必要投入，以及投资公路和电力等基本的基础设施。


Instead, donor governments and the World Bank have insisted for years that impoverished countries cut financing to these villages, under the guise of promoting “macroeconomic stability” – a polite way of demanding debt repayment – and reflecting the ideological delusion that the private sector will step in.	然而，捐助国政府和世界银行多年来一直借口促进“宏观经济稳定”要求贫困国家削减对这些村庄的拨款——一种要求偿还债务的委婉做法——同时也反映了一种意识上的错觉，以为民间经济会自动介入。


Instead, these policies have left hundreds of millions of people even more desperately poor and hungry, and even more vulnerable to drought, pests, and soil depletion.	相反，这些政策使数亿人民陷入更加无望的贫苦和饥荒之中，甚至更容易受到干旱、虫灾和土壤贫化的影响。


Millions die each year, either of outright starvation or from infectious diseases that their weakened bodies cannot withstand.	每年有数百万的人死去，有的是直接饿死的，有的则死于孱弱的身体无法抵抗的传染病。


And still, after twenty years of preaching that private markets would pick up the slack, these impoverished communities are further away than ever from using improved seeds, fertilizers, and small-scale water management technologies.	私有市场会接手的宣传进行了二十年，然而这些贫困地区距离改良种子、肥料、以及小规模的灌溉技术却越来越远。


The irony is that donors then respond with very expensive emergency food aid, which typically proves to be too little and too late.	讽刺的是，捐助国反过来施以代价高昂的紧急食品援助，而这些援助又常常太少或太迟。


A shipment of an equivalent dollar amount of fertilizer and improved seeds from, say, the United States to Africa would yield perhaps five times more food.	如果将美国运到非洲的食品援助换成等价的肥料和改良种子，收成会比援助多五倍。


But donors have not yet implemented this obvious and basic lesson.	但是捐助国迄今还没有吸取到这个浅显的教训。


Malawi today is an urgent case in point.	今天的马拉维正是这样一个迫切的例子。


Because of rural impoverishment and a drought earlier this year, dire hunger afflicts millions of people.	由于农村的贫困和今年初���旱情，严重的饥荒影响了数百万的人民。


Donors are rallying for food aid, but they are resisting the obvious need to help the poorest million farmers (and their four million dependents) get soil nutrients and improved seeds in time for the planting season this autumn.	捐助国纷纷联合起来筹集救援食品，但对帮助上百万最贫穷的农民（以及四百万依靠他们生活的人）在今秋种植季节前及时获得肥料和改良种子这样显而易见的需要却视而不见。


The cost of sending such help would be around $50 million, and the benefits would be $200 million to $300 million in increased food production next year (and hence less needed in emergency food aid).	提供这样的帮助大约需要5000万美元左右，而好处却是明年粮食产量增加2亿到3亿美元（且所需的紧急救援食品也会因此减少）。


Moreover, Malawi has a proven track record of sharply higher food yields when impoverished farmers are helped with inputs.	而且，从历史上看，一旦贫穷的农民得到农业投入上的帮助，马拉维的粮食产量会大幅度提高。


Yet donors continue shipping expensive food aid while ignoring Malawi’s desperate need to grow more food.	然而捐助国一面忽视马拉维提高粮食产量的迫切需要，一面继续运送昂贵的救援食品。


Over the longer term, increased food yields could be turned into sustained economic growth.	从较长期来看，粮食增产可以促进持续的经济增长。


First, rural households would be encouraged to have fewer children, and to invest more in each child’s health and education.	首先，农村家庭会愿意生养较少的子女，而且更关心每一个子女的健康和教育。


Child survival rates would rise, reinforcing lower fertility rates.	儿童的存活率会上升，抵消生养率的降低。


At the same time, increased educational opportunities for girls and women, and low-cost contraceptives provided by family-planning services, would empower them to marry later and have fewer children.	同时，女孩和妇女的受教育机会增加，以及计划生育服务提供的低成本避孕措施，将有助于他们推迟结婚年龄，生养较少的子女。


Second, and simultaneously, donors should help impoverished countries to invest in roads, ports, rural electricity, and diversified production (both agricultural and non-agricultural), in order to promote higher productivity and alternative livelihoods in the longer term.	其次，捐助国应同时帮助贫困国家投资公路、港口、农村电力，提高产业多样性（农业和非农业），从而促进长期生产力的提高和其他谋生的方式。


Villages currently trapped in hunger and subsistence agriculture would become commercial centers for food processing and exports, and even for rural industry and services supported by electrification, mobile phones, and other improved technologies.	如今陷于饥馑、农业生产仅能果腹的村庄将成为食品加工和出口的商业中心，甚至成为以电力、移动电话和其他改良技术为支柱的农村工业和服务业的中心。


This is a year of both widespread hunger and solemn promises by the rich countries.	今年，一方面是大范围的饥荒，另一方面是富裕国家做出的严肃承诺。


But emergency food aid is not enough.	但是紧急救援食品是不够的。


Impoverished communities in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia are ripe for a “green revolution,” based on modern scientific techniques for managing soils, water, and seed varieties.	利用土壤管理、灌溉和种子品种方面的现代化科学技术在非洲、中东和亚洲的贫困地区开展“绿色革命”的时机已经成熟。


Donors should lend their support by backing long-term solutions aimed at increasing food production, slowing population growth, and mitigating long-term global climate change.	捐助国应将他们的援手伸向以提高粮食产量、减缓人口增长和缓解长期全球气候变化的长远解决办法。


The Case for Fiscal Stimulus	财政刺激方案


CAMBRIDGE – Governments around the world are now developing massive fiscal stimulus packages that will cause unprecedented peacetime budget deficits.	坎布里奇-世界各地的政府正在制定大规模的财政刺激一揽子计划，这将带来和平时期前所未有的预算赤字。


The fiscal deficit in the United States this year is likely to exceed 10% of GDP.	美国今年的财政赤字有可能占国民生产总值的10 ％以上。


A substantial part of the increased deficit will be due to a wide range of new government spending.	相当一部分的财政赤字增长会因为各种各样的新的政府开支而导致。


Under normal circumstances, I would oppose this rise in the budget deficit and the higher level of government spending.	在正常情况下，我会反对这样的预算赤字和政府开支的增长。


When an economy is closer to full employment, government borrowing to finance budget deficits can crowd out private investment that would raise productivity and the standard of living.	当一国经济的就业率达到几乎饱和的时候，政府通过借贷来解决预算赤字会排挤可以提高生产力和生活水平的私人投资。


Budget deficits automatically increase government debt, requiring higher future taxes to pay the interest on that debt.	预算赤字会自动增加政府的债务，于是需要更高的税收来支付这些债务的利息。


The resulting higher tax rates distort economic incentives and thus weaken future economic performance.	由此产生的高税率又扭曲了经济上的激励作用，从而造成未来的经济表现疲软。


Of course, some government spending is desirable or necessary.	当然，有些政府的开支是需要的或是必需的。


But an increase in government outlays often means wasteful spending that produces less value than consumers would get from those same dollars.	但是，增加政府的支出往往意味着浪费，其产生的价值比不上消费者从同样的钱中所能获得的价值。


Now, however, increased government spending and the resulting rise in the fiscal deficit are being justified as necessary to deal with the economic downturn – a sharp change from the reliance on monetary policy that was used to deal with previous recessions.	然而，政府开支的增加以及由此而造成财政赤字，在处理经济不景气时，正被证明是必要的-过去是依赖货币政策来对付经济衰退的，现在和以前发方法大不相同了。


Countercyclical fiscal policy had been largely discredited because of the delays involved in implementing fiscal changes and households’ weak response to temporary tax cuts.	反周期的财政政策由于在实施财政变化中的拖延和家庭针临时减税的微弱反应，已经基本上失去了其信誉。


By contrast, the central bank could lower interest rates rapidly, which worked to raise household and business spending through a variety of channels.	相比之下，央行应该可以迅速降低利率，这样做对提升家庭和企业在各种渠道的开支会起作用。


Nevertheless, I support the use of fiscal stimulus in the US, because the current recession is much deeper than and different from previous downturns.	不过，我仍然支持在美国实施财政刺激的方法，因为目前的经济衰退比以往的衰退更深刻，而且也不一样。


Even with successful countercyclical policy, this recession is likely to last longer and be more damaging than any since the depression of the 1930’s.	即使反周期政策能成功，这次经济衰退很可能会比自20世纪30年代以来任何一次衰退持续更长的时间，其带来的也损害也更大。


The 40% decline in the US stock market and the dramatic fall in house prices have reduced American households’ wealth by more than $10 trillion, which is likely to reduce annual consumer spending by more than $400 billion.	美国股市40 ％的下挫幅度以及房价的大幅下降已经使美国家庭的财富蒸发了十万多亿美元，这很可能导致每年减少4000多亿美元的消费额。


And the collapse of housing starts has lowered construction spending by another $200 billion.	房屋开工率的大滑坡削减了2000亿美元的建筑开支。


This $600 billion fall in demand is more than 3% of GDP.	这六千亿美元的需求下降占了3 ％以上的国民生产总额。


If not reversed, it will cause further cuts in production, employment, and earnings, leading to further reductions in consumer spending.	这种形势如果不加以扭转，将造成生产、就业机会和收入的进一步削减，从而进一步减弱消费开支。


The usual monetary-policy response of lowering interest rates is unable to reverse this sharp drop in demand.	通常的以采取降低利率的货币政策所作出的对策，现在却无力扭转这种需求急剧下降的局面了。


The dysfunctional credit markets caused by the uncertain value of asset-backed securities means that banks and other financial institutions are unable to raise funds and are unwilling to lend.	由资产担保型证券的价值的不确定性而引起的信贷市场的功能失调，意味着银行和其他金融机构无法筹集资金，也不愿意提供贷款。


As a result, the central bank’s lower interest rates do not translate into increased spending on interest-sensitive investment and consumption.	因此，央行利率的降低，不能转化成对利息敏感型投资和消费支出的增加。


So there is no alternative to fiscal policy if we want to reverse the current downturn.	所以，如果我们要扭转目前的低迷局面，是没有其它可替代的财政政策的。


The resulting increase in the national debt is the price that we and future generations will pay for the mistakes that created the current economic situation. Those mistakes led to an underpricing of risk and the resulting increase in excessive leverage.	由此而产生的国家债务的增长，是我们和子孙后代将为我们所犯的错误需付出的代价，这些错误导致了当前的经济形势，这些错误导致了对风险的低估和过度杠杆效应的增加。


There are many reasons for the underpricing of risk and the rise in leverage.	产生对风险的低估和杠杆效应运用的增加的原因是多方面的。


The exceptionally easy monetary policy at the start of the decade contributed to financial investors’ willingness to buy low-quality financial assets in order to get higher yield and to an explosive rise in house prices.	始于本世纪初的极为宽松的货币政策推动了金融投资者购买低质量金融资产以获得更高的回报的意愿，也推动了房价的爆炸性上扬。


The rating agencies miscalculated the value of asset-backed securities.	评级机构错估了资产担保型证券的价值。


The increase in leverage was driven in part by government policies aimed at expanding home ownership among lower-income groups that have proven unable to afford that life style.	对杠杆效应运用的增加，部分要归咎于政府的政策，此政策旨在扩大低收入人群的住房拥有率，但却已证明了这是他们所负担不起的生活方式。


Banking supervisors did not deal with many institutions’ low levels of capital and poor asset quality.	银行业监管们没有处理好许多机构的低水平的资本和不良的资产质量。


A major challenge for the future is to fix the institutional policies that led to these problems.	未来需要弥补导致这些问题的体制方面的政策，这将是一项重大挑战。


The new Obama administration and the Congress are still working out the structure of the fiscal stimulus for the US.	奥巴马新政府和国会仍在拟定美国财政刺激计划的结构。


Although I support the need for a large fiscal package, I disagree with many of the specific features of the plans now under consideration.	虽然我支持需要有一个庞大的财政一揽子计划，但我对目前正在考虑的计划中的许多具体的方面持保留意见。


Regardless of what is done to provide a fiscal stimulus, governments around the world must act to fix dysfunctional credit markets.	不管目前在提供财政刺激方面已经做了什么，世界各国政府必须采取行动以修复非正常运作的信贷市场。


Otherwise, credit will not flow and growth will not resume.	否则，信贷将不会流通，经济增长将不会恢复。


In the US, reviving the credit markets requires stopping the mortgage defaults driven by negative equity.	在美国，信贷市场要恢复元气则需要阻止由负资产造成的抵押贷款违约。


The US Treasury Department wasted valuable time in 2008 by not using the funds provided by Congress to deal with those housing-market problems.	美国财政部在2008年浪费了宝贵的时间，因为他们没有使用国会提供的资金来处理那些房屋市场出现的问题。


There is hope that the Congress and the new administration will now address that issue.	现在我们看到了美国国会和新政府着手解决这个问题的希望。


When the recession is over, the US and virtually every other country will have substantially higher debt-to-GDP ratios.	当这场经济衰退结束时，美国和几乎所有其它国家都将会出现债务与国民生产总值之比的大幅度提高。


At that point, it will be important to develop policies to reduce gradually the relative level of government spending in order to shift to fiscal surpluses and reduce the debt burden.	在那个时候，重要的是制定政策，以逐步减少政府开支的相对水平，以转向财政盈余并减轻债务负担。


The Case for Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions	关于减少温室气体排放


PALO ALTO -- Last fall, the United Kingdom issued a major government report on global climate change directed by Sir Nicholas Stern, a top-flight economist.	帕洛阿尔托—去年秋天，英国发布了一份在一流经济学家尼古拉斯·斯特恩爵士指导下出台的有关全球气候变化的重要政府报告即《斯特恩气候变化经济评价》。


The Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change amounts to a call to action: it argues that huge future costs of global warming can be avoided by incurring relatively modest cost today.	这份报告呼吁人们采取行动，它认为未来我们将为全球变暖所付出的巨大代价可以通过今天逐步付出的相对较低的代价得以避免。


Critics of the Stern Review don’t think serious action to limit CO2 emissions is justified, because there remains substantial uncertainty about the extent of the costs of global climate change, and because these costs will be incurred far in the future.	对《斯特恩报告》持批评态度的人并不认为采取认真的行动以限制二氧化碳的排放是合理的，因为对于全球气候变化到底将带来怎样的代价还存在相当大的不确定性，何况这些代价还是将在遥远的将来才会发生的。


However, I believe that Stern’s fundamental conclusion is justified: we are much better off reducing CO2 emissions substantially than risking the consequences of failing to act, even if, unlike Stern, one heavily discounts uncertainty and the future.	不过，我认为斯特恩的基本结论是正确的：即我们实质性地减少二氧化碳的排放肯定比因为没有采取行动而冒由此带来的后果的风险要好得多，即便对于一个与斯特恩意见相左、大大低估不确定性和未来影响的人也是如此。


Two factors differentiate global climate change from other environmental problems.	有两种因素使全球气候变化问题区别于其他环境问题。


First, whereas most environmental insults – for example, water pollution, acid rain, or sulfur dioxide emissions – are mitigated promptly or in fairly short order when the source is cleaned up, emissions of CO2 and other trace gases remain in the atmosphere for centuries.	首先，尽管大多数环境对人体的各种伤害，比如，水质污染、酸雨或二氧化硫排放，在污染源被清除后立即或在很短的时间得以缓解，但是二氧化碳和其他痕量气体将会在大气层里停留几个世纪。


So reducing emissions today is very valuable to humanity in the distant future.	所以今天减少排放对于遥远未来的人类是极具价值的。


Second, the externality is truly global in scale, because greenhouse gases travel around the world in a few days.	其次，它所带来的外部影响是真正全球范围的，因为温室气体可以在几天内就传播到整个世界。


As a result, the nation-state and its subsidiaries, the typical loci for internalizing externalities, are limited in their remedial capacity.	其结果是，国家和它们的属地，这些将外部影响国际化的典型所在地，在修复能力上却极其有限。


(However, since the United States contributes about 25% of the world’s CO2 emissions, its own policy could make a large difference.)	（不过，因为美国占全世界二氧化碳排放量的25%，所以它的政策可以带来很大的不同。 ）


Thus, global climate change is a public good (bad) par excellence .	因此，全球气候变化是一个突出的共同利益（坏事物）。


Cost-benefit analysis is a principal tool for deciding whether altering it through mitigation policy is warranted.	成本效益分析是决定通过减排政策改变这种状况是否应该得到许可的一个主要工具。


Two aspects of that calculation are critical.	首先，必须假定个体倾向于避免风险。


First, it has to be assumed that individuals prefer to avoid risk.	就是说，一个不确定的结果价值要比平均结果低。


That is, an uncertain outcome is worth less than the average of the outcomes. Because the possible outcomes of global warming in the absence of mitigation are very uncertain, though surely bad, the uncertain losses should be evaluated as being equivalent to a single loss greater than the expected loss.	因为如果不执行减排政策可能会给全球变暖带来怎样的结果存在很大的不确定性，尽管肯定会很糟糕，这种不确定的损失其价值应该被认为等同于比预期的损失要高的单一损失。


The second critical aspect is how one treats future outcomes relative to current ones – an issue that has aroused much attention among philosophers as well as economists.	第二个关键的方面是人们应该看待未来的结果与当前的人的关系，这个问题在哲学家以及经济学家都引起了很大的关注。


At what rate should future impacts – particularly losses of future consumption – be discounted to the present?	未来的影响，尤其是未来消费的损失，应该以多大的比率折扣到今天的影响呢？


The consumption discount rate should account for the possibility that, as consumption grows, the marginal unit of consumption may be considered to have less social value.	消费贴现率应该把随着消费的增长，边际单位消费的社会价值也许会被认为越来越小的可能性考虑在内。


This is analogous to the idea of diminishing marginal private utility of private consumption, and is relatively uncontroversial, although researchers disagree on its magnitude.	这类似于关于私人消费边际效应递减的观点，并且相对来说对此没有多大争议，尽管研究者们在它的规模上存在不同观点。


There is greater disagreement about how much to discount the future simply because it is the future, even if future generations are no better off than us.	因为它是未来，所以人们对未来应该打多大折扣存在很大的意见分歧，即便我们的后代境况不会比我们好。


Whereas the Stern Review follows a tradition among British economists and many philosophers against discounting for pure futurity, most economists take pure time preference as obvious.	尽管《斯特恩报告》遵循了英国经济学家和许多哲学家反对对纯粹的未来进行打折的传统，但是很显然大多数经济学家更偏爱纯粹的时间。


However, the case for intervention to keep CO2 levels within bounds (say, aiming to stabilize them at about 550 ppm) is sufficiently strong to be insensitive to this dispute.	不过，进行干涉以便把二氧化碳水平控制在一定范围内（比如，把它稳定在万分之五点五的水平）有足够强的论据支持，根本不需要牵涉到这种争论。


Consider some numbers from the Stern Review concerning the future benefits of preventing greenhouse gas concentrations from exceeding 550 ppm, as well as the costs of accomplishing this.	看一下《斯特恩报告》中对于防止温室气体浓度超过万分之五点五所带来的未来利益以及完成这一目标所需要花费的代价的那些数据就很清楚了。


The benefits are the avoided damages, including both market damages and non-market damages that account for health and ecological impacts.	利益是被避免的损害，包括市场损害以及导致对健康和生态影响的非市场损害。


Following a “business as usual” policy, by 2200, the losses in GNP have an expected value of 13.8%, but with a degree of uncertainty that makes the expected loss equivalent to a certain loss of about 20%.	如果我们执行“一切照常”的政策，那么到2020年，国民生产总值的损失预计为13. 8%，但是因为存在的不确定性，使得预计的损失大概为20%。


Since the base rate of economic growth (before calculating the climate change effect) was taken to be 1.3% per year, a loss of 20% in the year 2200 amounts to reducing the annual growth rate to 1.2%.	因为经济的年基本增长率（未计算气候变化影响）被设定为1. 3%，那么2020年损失20%相当于把年增长率降到1.


In other words, the benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions can be represented as the increase in the annual growth rate from today to 2200 from 1.2% to 1.3%.	换句话说，减少温室气体排放的利益可以被表述为将现在到2020年的年增长率从1. 2%提高到1.


As for the cost of stabilization, estimates in the Stern Review range from 3.4% of GNP to -3.9% (since saving energy reduces energy costs, the latter estimate is not as startling as it appears).	至于稳定大气层中二氧化碳水平的代价，根据《斯特恩报告》的预计，在国民生产总值3. 5%到-3.


Let’s assume that costs to prevent additional accumulation of CO2 (and equivalents) come to 1% of GNP every year forever, and, in accordance with a fair amount of empirical evidence, that the component of the discount rate attributable to the declining marginal utility of consumption is equal to twice the rate of growth of consumption.	9%的范围内（因为节约能源减少了能源成本，后一预计数字并不像它看起来那么惊人）。 让我们假定防止二氧化碳（及其等同物）的额外累计的代价永远为每年国民生产总值的1%，那么，根据大量的经验证据，可归因于下降的边际单位消费的贴现率的成份相当于消费增长率的两倍。


A straightforward calculation shows that mitigation is better than business as usual – that is, the present value of the benefits exceeds the present value of the costs – for any social rate of time preference less than 8.5%.	直接的计算显示减排比执行照常的政策要好，就是说，利益的当前价值超过了代价的当前价值——对于任何低于8. 5%的社会时间偏好率而言。


No estimate of the pure rate of time preference, even by those who believe in relatively strong discounting of the future, has ever approached 8.5%.	但是，还没有出现预计社会时间偏好率会接近8. 5%的情况，即便对于那些认为对未来应该打相对很大的折扣的人而言也是如此。


These calculations indicate that, even with higher discounting, the Stern Review’s estimates of future benefits and costs imply that mitigation makes economic sense.	这些计算表明，即便打上很高的折扣，《斯特恩报告》对于未来利益和代价的预计数字显示减排在经济上是有益的。


These calculations rely on the report’s projected time profiles for benefits and its estimate of annual costs, about which there is much disagreement.	这些计算是基于该报告预计利益的时间表以及它对年成本的预计数字进行的，对此尚存在很大的争议。


Still, I believe there can be little serious argument about the importance of a policy aimed at avoiding major further increases in CO2 emissions.	但是，我依然认为对于旨在防止未来二氧化碳排放进一步大幅增加的政策的重要性的争议很少是严肃的。


The Case for Opening Europe’s Borders	开放欧洲边界


It is time for Europe’s politicians to admit to voters that governments cannot stop people moving across borders.	欧洲的政治人物们现在应该向选民们承认政府无法阻止人们跨越国界。


Despite efforts to build a Fortress Europe, over a million foreigners bypass its defences every year; some enter covertly, but most just overstay their visas and work illicitly.	尽管要修建所谓的欧洲城堡，每年有一百多万外国人非法越境； 有些人是秘密进入，但是大多数都是签证到期后不归又打黑工。


Even if Europe became a police state, migrants could get through: documents can be forged or stolen, visas overstayed, people smuggled, officials bribed.	即使欧洲变成一个警察国度，移民还是可以越过。 人可以伪造或者偷取文件，签证到期逾期不归，走私人口，贿赂官员。


While draconian policies can curb migration somewhat, they mostly drive it underground.	尽管极为严厉的政策可以在某种程度上限制移民，但是它们只不过是把移民赶入地下。


That creates huge costs.	这就造成巨大的成本。


Aside from a humanitarian crisis, with thousands drowning each year trying to reach Europe and thousands more detained, there is the soaring expense of border controls and bureaucracy, a criminalized people-smuggling industry, and an expanding shadow economy, where illegal migrants are vulnerable to exploitation, labor laws are broken and taxes go unpaid.	除了存在人道主义危机外，每年几千人在试图进入欧洲时被淹死，还有几千人被拘留。 边境控制和官僚机构费用飞涨，人口走私行业犯罪化，地下经济扩大。


In addition, there is rising mistrust of politicians who cannot fulfill promises to halt immigration, accompanied by perceptions of immigrants as law-breakers rather than enterprising people, and mistreatment of refugees aimed at deterring people who want to work from applying for asylum.	此外，人们因政治人物无法实现阻止移民的诺言而对他们越发不信任。 随之而来的是移民给人一种违法者而不是具有创业精神的人的印象，刁难难民从而不让想要工作的人申请难民。


These problems are due not to immigrants, but to our immigration controls, which are not only costly and cruel, but also ineffective and counterproductive.	这些问题并不是移民造成的，而是移民管制造成的。 移民管制不仅成本巨大，而且没有效果也适得其反。