It told how Max Mosley, President of the Federation Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA, the body that oversees world motoring and racing) and son of the former British fascist leader, Sir Oswald Mosley, had, two days earlier, taken part in a sadomasochistic “orgy” with a “Nazi theme” in a private apartment in London.	报道称国际汽车运动联合会（简称FIA，是监管世界赛车的机构）的主席马克斯·莫斯利以及前英国法西斯领导人的儿子奥斯瓦德·莫斯利爵士在两天前，在伦敦一个私人公寓里参加了一个“纳粹主题”的性施虐受虐狂“狂欢”。


The story was accompanied by photographs taken clandestinely by one of the women in cooperation with the News of the World , which readers were invited to download from the paper’s Web site.	该报道还附加了由一个和《世界新闻》有合作关系的妇女暗中拍摄的照片，并欢迎读者到该报纸的网站上下载。


Max Mosley admitted participating in this (not illegal) happening, but sued the News of the World for breach of privacy; the newspaper argued that it was in the “public interest” that Mosley’s sexual activities be disclosed.	马克斯·莫斯利承认参加了这一活动（这并不违法），但是起诉《世界新闻》侵犯了其隐私； 报纸声称曝光莫斯利的性行为符合“公共利益”。


The presiding judge, Mr. Justice Eady, rejected the newspaper’s defense, and awarded Max Mosley £60,000 ($115,000) compensation for the invasion of his privacy, the highest damages so far given for a complaint brought under Article 8.	首席法官爱迪法官驳回了《世界新闻》的辩护，并判决其因侵犯马克斯·莫斯利的隐私而赔偿给他60,000英镑（115,000美元)，这是迄今为止根据《欧洲人权公约》第八条起诉的案件作出的最高额的赔偿。


There is a curious aspect to Eady’s judgment.	在爱迪法官的判决中有一个令人好奇的方面。


He rejected the News of the World’s “public interest” defense, because he found no evidence that the sadomasochistic party had a “Nazi theme.”	因为他没有发现该性施虐受虐狂派对有“纳粹主题”的证据，所以他驳回了《世界新闻》“公共利益”的辩护，。


This implies that had there been a Nazi theme, it could have been legitimate to publish it, given Mosley’s position as FIA president.	这暗示着，鉴于莫斯利作为FIA主席的地位，如果该派对有纳粹主题，媒体发布这一消息就是合法的。


But surely the particular nature of Mosley’s private fantasies is irrelevant to the case.	但是当然，莫里斯的私人性幻想的特殊性质和案件无关。


It is hard to see why I am less entitled to privacy because I am turned on by a Nazi uniform than I would be if I were excited by a pair of knickers.	我很不明白，为什么我因为纳粹制服比灯笼裤更能令我兴奋就应该享有更少的隐私。


What Eady’s judgment did accomplish was to highlight the crucial distinction, necessary for all clear thinking about privacy, between what interests the public and what is in the public interest.	爱迪法官的判决取得的成果是，突出了所有对清晰思考隐私至关重要的区别，即什么使公众感兴趣和什么符合公共利益之间的区别。


So how can this distinction be made effective?	那么，怎样才能使这一区别生效呢？


France has a privacy law that explicitly defines both the scope of privacy and the circumstances in which the law applies.	法国有一个隐私法明确定义了隐私的范围和该法适用的条件。


By contrast, in Britain it is left to judges to decide what the “right to privacy” means.	相反，在英国，“隐私权”的定义是交由法官判断的。


There is a natural fear that specific legislation designed to protect privacy would muzzle legitimate press inquiries.	有人担心用于保护隐私的明确立法会箝制合法的新闻调查，这是很自然的。


At the same time, it is widely acknowledged (except by most editors and journalists) that a great deal of media intrusion is simply an abuse of press freedom, with the sole aim of boosting circulation by feeding public prurience.	同时，人们普遍认为(除大多数编辑和新闻记者外)，大量的新闻窥探就是对新闻自由的滥用，其唯一目的是通过满足公众的欲望来提高发行量。


A law that curtails the abuse of press power while protecting its freedom to expose the abuse of political power would be difficult, but not impossible, to frame.	制定一部遏制新闻权力滥用同时也保护媒体暴露政治权力滥用的权利的法律，是很困难的，但是并不是不可能。


The essential principle is that the media should not be allowed to pander to the public’s prurience under cover of protecting the public interest.	关键的原则是，媒体不应被允许在保护公众利益的掩护下，为公众的欲望拉皮条。


What famous people – indeed ordinary people, too – do in private should be off limits to the media unless they give permission for those activities to be reported, photographed, or filmed.	名人——事实上普通人也是如此——在私下里做的事情对媒体报道没有限制，只有在他们允许这些行为被报道、拍摄或录像的情况下才可以。


The only exceptions would be if a newspaper has reasonable grounds for believing that the individuals concerned are breaking the law, or that, even if they are not breaking the law, they are behaving in such a way as to render them unfit to perform the duties expected of them.	唯一的例外是，如果报纸有合理的理由认��有关的个人违反了法律，或者即使他们没有违反法律，但是他们行为的方式使他们不适合履行期望他们完成的职务时，可以加以报道。


Thus, a pop star’s consumption of illegal drugs may be reported, but not his or her sexual habits (if they are legal).	因此，一个流行歌手非法使用毒品可以被报道，但是他或她的性习性（如果这些习性合法）就不应被报道。


The private life of a politician may be revealed if it is expected to have consequences for the way the country is being governed; that of a top executive of a public company if it may affect the returns to shareholders.	如果政治家的私生活被认为对国家的治理方式有不利影响，就可以被曝光； 如果公众公司首席执行官的私生活可能影响股东的收益，也可以被曝光。


This should be the only “public interest” defense available to a media outlet that is sued for invasion of privacy.	这应该是被起诉侵犯隐私的媒体的唯一的“公共利益”辩护。


The media might become a bit drearier, but public life would be far healthier.	媒体可能会因此变得有点沉闷，但是公众生活会变得更健康。


The Price of 9/11	9·11的代价


NEW YORK – The September 11, 2001, terror attacks by Al Qaeda were meant to harm the United States, and they did, but in ways that Osama bin Laden probably never imagined.	纽约——2011年9月11日，基地组织对美国发动了恐怖袭击。 他们的意图是要给美国点颜色看看，但采用这样的方式恐怕连本·拉登自己都没有想到。


President George W. Bush’s response to the attacks compromised America’s basic principles, undermined its economy, and weakened its security.	乔治·布什总统对9·11的反应有违美国基本原则，破坏了美国经济，还恶化了美国的安全形势。


The attack on Afghanistan that followed the 9/11 attacks was understandable, but the subsequent invasion of Iraq was entirely unconnected to Al Qaeda – as much as Bush tried to establish a link.	在9·11之后对阿富汗发动的袭击还不难理解，但此后入侵伊拉克则完全与基地组织无关，尽管布什竭力要将两者扯上关系。


That war of choice quickly became very expensive – orders of magnitude beyond the $60 billion claimed at the beginning – as colossal incompetence met dishonest misrepresentation.	结果，伊拉克战争很快就造成了昂贵代价——由于军事上的无能和不诚实的歪曲，花销数量级远远超出了一开始宣称的600亿美元。


Indeed, when Linda Bilmes and I calculated America’s war costs three years ago, the conservative tally was $3-5 trillion.	事实上，3年前我和比尔梅斯（Linda Bilmes）计算美国战争成本的时候，我们得出的保守答案是3—5万亿美元。


Since then, the costs have mounted further.	此后战争成本还在进一步积累。


With almost 50% of returning troops eligible to receive some level of disability payment, and more than 600,000 treated so far in veterans’ medical facilities, we now estimate that future disability payments and health-care costs will total $600-900 billion.	大约50%的归国军人有资格获得残疾补助，另有超过60万人在荣军医疗机构就医，因此我们估计，未来残疾补助和医疗成本总数将达到6000—9000亿美元。


But the social costs, reflected in veteran suicides (which have topped 18 per day in recent years) and family breakups, are incalculable.	但社会成本——体现在老兵自杀（近几年平均每天有18起）和家庭破裂上——根本无法计算。


Even if Bush could be forgiven for taking America, and much of the rest of the world, to war on false pretenses, and for misrepresenting the cost of the venture, there is no excuse for how he chose to finance it.	即使我们可以原谅布什将美国（以及世界大部分国家）拖入了没有对手的战争，原谅他在战争成本上的不诚实，他为战争融资的办法也找不到任何开脱的理由。


His was the first war in history paid for entirely on credit.	布什的战争是历史上第一次完全靠借债支持的战争。


As America went into battle, with deficits already soaring from his 2001 tax cut, Bush decided to plunge ahead with yet another round of tax “relief” for the wealthy.	随着美国卷入战争，布什不顾赤字已因2001年减税政策出现飙升的事实，决定继续豪赌，为富人推行第二轮税收“减负”。


Today, America is focused on unemployment and the deficit.	如今，美国人关注的焦点是失业和赤字。


Both threats to America’s future can, in no small measure, be traced to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.	这两个对美国未来的大威胁都可以追本溯源到阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争。


Increased defense spending, together with the Bush tax cuts, is a key reason why America went from a fiscal surplus of 2% of GDP when Bush was elected to its parlous deficit and debt position today.	上升的防务支出和布什减税政策一起，使得美国财政从布什当选时的2%GDP盈余相当于一路恶化到如今赤字和债务水平岌岌可危的程度。


Direct government spending on those wars so far amounts to roughly $2 trillion – $17,000 for every US household – with bills yet to be received increasing this amount by more than 50%.	这两次战争的直接政府支出总和大约是2万亿美元，相当于每个美国家庭都付出了17000美元，这笔钱均用债券融资，而未偿清的债务已使总支出增加了50%以上。


Moreover, as Bilmes and I argued in our book The Three Trillion Dollar War, the wars contributed to America’s macroeconomic weaknesses, which exacerbated its deficits and debt burden.	此外，比尔梅斯和我在《三万亿美元战争》（The Three Trillion Dollar War）一书中指出，布什战争进一步恶化了美国宏观经济，从而增加了赤字和债务负担。


Then, as now, disruption in the Middle East led to higher oil prices, forcing Americans to spend money on oil imports that they otherwise could have spent buying goods produced in the US.	如今，中东乱局又使油价进一步上涨，迫使美国人为原油进口付出更多的钱，这些钱原本可以用来购买美国制造的商品。


But then the US Federal Reserve hid these weaknesses by engineering a housing bubble that led to a consumption boom.	但在当时，美联储通过吹起房地产泡沫从而激发消费繁荣，隐瞒了美国经济的疲软真相。


It will take years to overcome the excessive indebtedness and real-estate overhang that resulted.	由此产生的过度负债问题和房地产宿醉需要多年才能消化。


Ironically, the wars have undermined America’s (and the world’s) security, again in ways that Bin Laden could not have imagined.	讽刺的是，这两场战争让美国（以及全世界）的安全形势恶化了，又是以本·拉登所不曾想到的形式实现的。


An unpopular war would have made military recruitment difficult in any circumstances.	一场不得民心的战争将使得征兵工作难以进行，不管形势如何变化。


But, as Bush tried to deceive America about the wars’ costs, he underfunded the troops, refusing even basic expenditures – say, for armored and mine-resistant vehicles needed to protect American lives, or for adequate health care for returning veterans.	但是，由于布什一心想隐瞒美国打这两场战争的花费，于是他不得不削减军费，甚至拒绝基本支出，比如保护美军士兵所需的带有装甲和自我保护装置的汽车； 也不愿向归国老兵提供充分的医疗服务。


A US court recently ruled that veterans’ rights have been violated.	最近，一家美国法院判决美国政府侵害了老兵的权利。


(Remarkably, the Obama administration claims that veterans’ right to appeal to the courts should be restricted!)	（令人关注的是，奥巴马政府宣称老兵向法院提起诉讼的权利应该被限制！ ）


Military overreach has predictably led to nervousness about using military power, and others’ knowledge of this threatens to weaken America’s security as well.	不难预料，穷兵黩武导致了人们对武力使用的担心，而让其他人知道这一点将对美国安全形势造成进一步恶化。


But America’s real strength, more than its military and economic power, is its “soft power,” its moral authority.	但美国超然于军事和经济实力之上的真正优势是其“软实力”，即道德主宰力。


And this, too, was weakened: as the US violated basic human rights like habeas corpus and the right not to be tortured, its longstanding commitment to international law was called into question.	而该实力也在削弱：由于美国侵犯了人身保护法、人身不受虐待等基本人权，其���守国际法的长期承诺也已经受到了质疑。


In Afghanistan and Iraq, the US and its allies knew that long-term victory required winning hearts and minds.	在阿富汗和伊拉克，美国及其盟友知道，长期胜利需要必胜信念。


But mistakes in the early years of those wars complicated that already-difficult battle.	但在这两场战争早期所犯的错误使得本已困难的战局进一步复杂化了。


The wars’ collateral damage has been massive: by some accounts, more than a million Iraqis have died, directly or indirectly, because of the war.	这两场战争的附带伤害不可谓不严重：有人估计，超过100万伊拉克人直接或间接因战争丧命。


According to some studies, at least 137,000 civilians have died violently in Afghanistan and Iraq in the last ten years; among Iraqis alone, there are 1.8 million refugees and 1.7 million internally displaced people.	根据有些学者的研究，过去10年中，至少137000平民在阿富汗和伊拉克被暴力杀害； 光是伊拉克就有180万难民，另有170万在伊拉克国内流离失所。


Not all of the consequences were disastrous.	并非所有后果都是灾难性的。


The deficits to which America’s debt-funded wars contributed so mightily are now forcing the US to face the reality of budget constraints.	美国债支持战争使得赤字如火山般爆发，如今正迫使美国直面预算约束的现实。


America’s military spending still nearly equals that of the rest of the world combined, two decades after the end of the Cold War.	冷战结束20年后，美国军费依然与世界其他国家总和相当。


Some of the increased expenditures went to the costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the broader Global War on Terrorism, but much of it was wasted on weapons that don’t work against enemies that don’t exist.	增加的军费一部分被用在了高成本的伊拉克和阿富汗战争以及更广义的全球反恐战争上，但大部分被浪费在了对付子虚乌有之敌、且从未开火过的武器上。


Now, at last, those resources are likely to be redeployed, and the US will likely get more security by paying less.	如今，至少这部分资源将重新配置，美国可能会因军费减少而变得更安全。


Al Qaeda, while not conquered, no longer appears to be the threat that loomed so large in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.	基地组织仍然未被征服，但已经不再能如同9·11袭击时给美国造成如此大的威胁了。


But the price paid in getting to this point, in the US and elsewhere, has been enormous – and mostly avoidable.	但美国和世界其他地区为达到这一点所付出的代价不可谓不巨，而且大部分是可以省下的。


The legacy will be with us for a long time.	这样做所带来的后果将长期伴随我们。


It pays to think before acting.	三思而后行，必有福焉。


The Price of Inaction	不作为的代价


BERKELEY – Are the world’s governments capable of keeping the world economy out of a deep and long depression?	伯克利——世界各国的政府有能力将世界经济带出影响如此深远的萧条么？


Three months ago, I would have said yes, without question. Now, I am not so certain.	三个月以前，我还这么认为，不过，现在我不敢肯定了。


The problem is not that governments are unsure about what to do. The standard checklist of what to do in a financial crisis to avoid a deep and prolonged depression has been gradually worked out over two centuries: by Bank of England Governor Cornelius Buller in 1825; by the Victorian-era editor of The Economist , Walter Bagehot; and by the economists Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, among many others.	问题的关键不再于各国的政府知不知道应该怎么做，应对如何应对这场影响深远的金融危机，在过去的两百年内，我们的前辈先贤已经给出过了标准的答案：1825年的英国中央银行行长Cornelius Buller，《经济学人》维多利亚时代的总编辑白芝浩;以及当代的经济学家欧文·费雪, 约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯,米尔顿·弗里德曼等等。


The key problem in times like these is that investor demand for safe, secure, and liquid assets – and thus their value – is too high, while demand for assets that underpin and finance the economy’s productive capital is too low. The obvious solution is for governments to create more cash to satisfy the demand for safe, secure, liquid assets.	历次金融危机的核心问题都是如何保证投资者安全，稳定和流动的资产，对于政府来说，解决问题的答案就是提供更多的流动现金来满足这种需求。


As Keynes liked to say: “Unemployment develops...because people want the moon” – safe, secure, and liquid assets.	正如凯恩斯指出的：“由于失业率的不断增加。 于是人们就需要安全感。


“Men cannot be employed when the object of desire [i.e., money] is something which cannot be produced and the demand for which cannot readily be choked off.”	”——就是安全，稳定和流动的资产。 “如果没有经济来源，一般人都会感到不安全，消费的需求自然就会下降。


The solution is “to persuade the public that green cheese [i.e., the notes printed by the central bank] is practically the same thing and to have a green cheese factory [i.e. a central bank] under public control...”	”解决问题的方法就是：“让公众知道经济来源不是问题，而且制造金钱的工厂（例如中央银行）在运行良好的状态之中。 ”


By buying government bonds for cash, a central bank can satisfy demand and push down the price of cash.	通过购买政府的债券来换取现金，中央银行可以满足公众的需求并把降低贷款的成本。


When there is no excess demand for cash, there will be no excess supply of the bonds and stocks that underpin and finance the economy’s productive capital.	当对现金的需求不在旺盛的时候，自然对债券和股票的需求也不会过于旺盛。


Thus, expansionary monetary policy via standard open-market operations by a central bank is the first item on the checklist of what to do in a financial crisis.	因此，中央银行应对金融危机首要做的事情就是：扩张性的财政政策加上开放市场。


Three months ago, I argued that all but a tiny and unbalanced fringe of economists approve of expansionary open-market operations to keep total nominal spending constant in a downturn, and I was right.	三个月以前，我就对上述的操作方式提出了自己的疑问，当时只有少数的经济学家赞同我的观点，现在看来，我是对的。


I was also right to say that all but a tiny and unbalanced fringe of economists approve of central-bank guarantees of system stability, in order to prevent the risk of a collapse of the payments system from becoming a first-order consideration boosting the demand for cash to unnatural levels.	我当时还指出中央银行保持系统的稳定性，防止金融支付系统崩盘，首要问题就是提供足够多的现金来支撑整个系统。


The problem comes when expansionary monetary policy via standard open-market operations and central-bank guarantees of orderly markets prove insufficient. Economists disagree about when, under what circumstances, and in what order governments should move beyond these first two items on the checklist.	问题是当中央银行采取了扩张性的财政政策加上公开市场以后，市场的反响如果并不奏效的话，一些经济学家就会说，除了这两项政策之外，政府应该在何种情况下及何种顺序来进一步采取行动。


Should governments try to increase monetary velocity by selling bonds, thereby boosting short-term interest rates?	难道政府应该利用出售债券来增加现金的供应，从而提升短期的利率？


Should they employ unemployed workers directly, or indirectly, by bringing forward expenditures or expanding the scale of government programs?	还是应该直接或间接地雇佣失业工人，从而加大政府的投入和开支？


Should they explicitly guarantee large financial institutions’ liabilities and/or classes of assets?	还是政府直接对大型金融机构的信用和资产进行担保？


Should they buy up assets at what they believe is a discount from their long-run values, or buy up assets that private investors are unwilling to trade, even at a premium above their likely long-run values?	还是应该以折扣的价格购买那些从长期来看值得投资的资产？ 还是以溢价来购买私人投资者不愿意购买的资产？


Should governments recapitalize or nationalize banks?	政府 应该收购或是国有化银行么？


Should they keep printing money even after exhausting their ability to inject extra liquidity into the economy via conventional open-market operations, which is now the case in the United States and elsewhere?	还是应该通过传统的开放市场的方式，不停地印制钞票来提供足够的现金? 美国是采取以上什么的方法？


Three months ago, I said that there was considerable disagreement about these issues, but that two things were certain. First, we do not know enough about when, under what circumstances, and in what order governments should resort to these checklist items.	三个月以前，我指出，虽然当时问题重重，各个方面都对究竟除了什么问题都有自己的看法，但有两点是肯定的：第一我们不确定推出以上这些政策的时机，在何种环境下推出以及推出以上政策的先后秩序等等。


Second, trying a combination of these items – even a confused and haphazard combination – was better than doing nothing.	第二，推出以上政策的组合，哪怕是混乱或是一团糟的组合，也比什么都不做强。


All five of the world’s major economies implemented their own confused and haphazard combinations of monetary, fiscal, and banking stimulus policies during the Great Depression, and the sooner they did – the sooner each began its own New Deal – the better.	在大萧条时代，所有五个主要经济大国都推出了有关金融财政，银行救助方案的各自混乱或是一团糟的组合。 推出越早的国家，越早出现转机，也最早摆脱萧条的境地。


Japan and Britain began their New Deals in 1931. Germany and the US began theirs in 1933.	日本和英国是在1931年实行新政的，德国和美国在1933年实施新政，法国一直等到1936年才实施。


France waited until 1936. Japan and Britain recovered first and fastest from the Great Depression, Germany and the US followed well behind, and France brought up the rear.	结果就是，日本和英国首先摆脱大萧条，接着是德国和美国，最后才轮到法国。


The conclusion that I draw from this is that we should try a combination of all checklist measures – quantitative monetary easing; bank guarantees, purchases, recapitalizations, and nationalizations; direct fiscal spending and debt issues – while ensuring that we can do so fast enough and on a large enough scale to do the job.	由此我得出的结论是：我们应该尽可能地运用以上的政策组合——有效率的财经舒缓政策，对银行担保，购买，注资及国有化。 直接提供金融帮助和对债务进行重组——而且动作要迅速有力。


Yet I am told that the chances of getting more money in the US for an extra round of fiscal stimulus this year is zero, as is the chance of getting more money this year to intervene in the banking system on an even larger scale than America’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).	虽然我已经得知今年美国政府不可能再拿出钱来进行另一轮的救助，不过，我认为，对银行系统的救助应该拿出更多的资金，而且力度要大于本轮美国政府的救助方案。


There is an 80% chance that waiting until 2010 and seeing what policies look appropriate then would not be disastrous. But that means that there is a 20% chance that it would be.	我认为，要等到2010年才知道，目前的政策是否成功，成功的机会可能是80%，但就是这样来说，还有20%的可能不成功。


And the US, it should be noted, is the most aggressive and best behaved of all major governments.	不过，不管怎么说，在本轮的救助方案中，美国比其他任何政府表现地都积极而且有效。


The Price of Inequality	不平等性的代价


NEW YORK – America likes to think of itself as a land of opportunity, and others view it in much the same light.	纽约—美国喜欢自称希望之地，其他人基本上也这么想。


But, while we can all think of examples of Americans who rose to the top on their own, what really matters are the statistics: to what extent do an individual’s life chances depend on the income and education of his or her parents?	但是，尽管我们可以想起一大把自力更生登上社会顶层的美国人，真正有意义的却是统计数字：一个人的发迹在多大程度上要取决于父母亲的收入和教育？


Nowadays, these numbers show that the American dream is a myth.	如今，统计数字显示，美国梦只是一个传说。


There is less equality of opportunity in the United States today than there is in Europe – or, indeed, in any advanced industrial country for which there are data.	论机会平等，美国还不如欧洲——其实是不如任何有该数字可考的发达工业化国家。


This is one of the reasons that America has the highest level of inequality of any of the advanced countries – and its gap with the rest has been widening.	此乃美国不平等程度为发达国家之最的原因之一，且差距还在不断拉大。


In the “recovery” of 2009-2010, the top 1% of US income earners captured 93% of the income growth.	在2009—2010年的“复苏”中，收入最高的1%美国人获得了93%的收入增长量。


Other inequality indicators – like wealth, health, and life expectancy – are as bad or even worse.	其他不平等性指标——比如财富、健康和寿命预期——有过之而无不足。


The clear trend is one of concentration of income and wealth at the top, the hollowing out of the middle, and increasing poverty at the bottom.	显而易见的趋势是收入和财富向顶层集中、中产阶级被掏空，而底层日益贫穷。


It would be one thing if the high incomes of those at the top were the result of greater contributions to society, but the Great Recession showed otherwise: even bankers who had led the global economy, as well as their own firms, to the brink of ruin, received outsize bonuses.	如果顶层的高收入来自更大的社会贡献，这倒也说得过去，但大衰退所展现的另外一幅图景：即使是银行家——他们毁掉了全球经济和所在公司——也获得了不菲的奖金。


A closer look at those at the top reveals a disproportionate role for rent-seeking: some have obtained their wealth by exercising monopoly power; others are CEOs who have taken advantage of deficiencies in corporate governance to extract for themselves an excessive share of corporate earnings; and still others have used political connections to benefit from government munificence – either excessively high prices for what the government buys (drugs), or excessively low prices for what the government sells (mineral rights).	有些人身居CEO高位，利用公司治理的漏洞将不成比例的公司利润揽入自己腰包； 还有人利用政治关系从政府的慷慨中获利——比如政府的高价采购（药品）和低价出售（矿权）。


Likewise, part of the wealth of those in finance comes from exploiting the poor, through predatory lending and abusive credit-card practices.	类似地，金融业的财富部分来自剥削穷人——通过掠夺性贷款和泛滥的信用卡消费。


Those at the top, in such cases, are enriched at the direct expense of those at the bottom.	在这些例子中，顶层人士的富裕直接建立在底层人士的痛苦之上。


It might not be so bad if there were even a grain of truth to trickle-down economics – the quaint notion that everyone benefits from enriching those at the top.	如果滴漏经济学（trickle-down economics，一种所有人都能从顶层人士的发迹中获益的奇谈怪论）中含有那么一丝真理的话，这或许称不上大坏事。


But most Americans today are worse off – with lower real (inflation-adjusted) incomes – than they were in 1997, a decade and a half ago.	但如今大部分美国人的境况比15年前的1997年还不如——真实（经通胀调整的）收入下降了。


All of the benefits of growth have gone to the top.	增长所带来的好处全被顶层攫走了。


Defenders of America’s inequality argue that the poor and those in the middle shouldn’t complain.	美国不平等性的辩护者指出，穷人和中产阶级不应该抱怨。


While they may be getting a smaller share of the pie than they did in the past, the pie is growing so much, thanks to the contributions of the rich and superrich, that the size of their slice is actually larger.	尽管他们在经济蛋糕中分得的比重较过去减少了，但蛋糕本身扩大了很多——此乃富豪和超级富豪之功——因此他们所分得的份量其实是有所增加的。


The evidence, again, flatly contradicts this.	然而铁证如山，这种言论纯属胡诌。


Indeed, America grew far faster in the decades after World War II, when it was growing together, than it has since 1980, when it began growing apart.	事实上，在二战结束后至今的几十年中，共同增长时期的增长率要比1980年以来的两极分化时期高得多。


This shouldn’t come as a surprise, once one understands the sources of inequality.	只要你能够理解不平等性的源头，对于出现这一现象就不会感到奇怪。


Rent-seeking distorts the economy.	寻租导致了经济扭曲。


Market forces, of course, play a role, too, but markets are shaped by politics; and, in America, with its quasi-corrupt system of campaign finance and its revolving doors between government and industry, politics is shaped by money.	当然，市场的力量并没有消失，但市场是受政治影响的； 而在美国，政治现金形成了一个几近腐败的系统，政府和产业之间的后门越开越大，政治在受金钱的影响。


For example, a bankruptcy law that privileges derivatives over all else, but does not allow the discharge of student debt, no matter how inadequate the education provided, enriches bankers and impoverishes many at the bottom.	比如，破产法把衍生品置于高于一切的地位，却不允许清偿学生贷款——不管所提供的教育是多么不充分——这不啻于劫底层济银行家。


In a country where money trumps democracy, such legislation has become predictably frequent.	在一个金钱压倒民主的国家中，可以预见，类似的立法将会频繁出现。


But growing inequality is not inevitable.	但不平等性的恶化并不是不可避免的。


There are market economies that are doing better, both in terms of both GDP growth and rising living standards for most citizens.	不少市场经济体比美国做得好得多，不管是从GDP增长的角度还是从大多数公民生活标准提升的角度。


Some are even reducing inequalities.	一些国家更是出现了不平等性有所改善的现象。


America is paying a high price for continuing in the opposite direction.	美国在错误的道路上越走越远，并正在为此付出高昂的代价。


Inequality leads to lower growth and less efficiency.	不平等性导致了增长减速和效率低下。


Lack of opportunity means that its most valuable asset – its people – is not being fully used.	缺少机会意味着最宝贵的资产——人得不到充分利用。


Many at the bottom, or even in the middle, are not living up to their potential, because the rich, needing few public services and worried that a strong government might redistribute income, use their political influence to cut taxes and curtail government spending.	许多底层甚至中产人士并没有获得与其潜力相符的生活水平，因为不需要公共服务又担心强势政府会实行收入再分配的富人利用自身的政治影响力实行减税和削减政府支出的政策。


This leads to underinvestment in infrastructure, education, and technology, impeding the engines of growth.	这导致了基础设施、教育和技术的投资不足，阻碍了增长引擎的充分转动。


The Great Recession has exacerbated inequality, with cutbacks in basic social expenditures and with high unemployment putting downward pressure on wages.	大衰退恶化了不平等性，同时削减了基本社会支出，而高失业又压低了工资。


Moreover, the United Nations Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System, investigating the causes of the Great Recession, and the International Monetary Fund have both warned that inequality leads to economic instability.	此外，调查大衰退起因的联合国国际货币和金融制度改革专家委员会和IMF均发出了警告，称不平等性导致了经济不稳定。


But, most importantly, America’s inequality is undermining its values and identity.	但是，最重要的是，美国的不平等性正在侵蚀其价值和身份。


With inequality reaching such extremes, it is not surprising that its effects are manifest in every public decision, from the conduct of monetary policy to budgetary allocations.	不平等程度是如此之高，要是你发现所有公共决策——从货币政策到预算分配——都受着不平等性的掣肘，一点都不用奇怪。


America has become a country not “with justice for all,” but rather with favoritism for the rich and justice for those who can afford it – so evident in the foreclosure crisis, in which the big banks believed that they were too big not only to fail, but also to be held accountable.	美国不再是一个“人人平等”的国家，这里是富人的天堂，有钱就能得到平等——按揭赎回权丧失危机就是明证，大银行仗着自己规模庞大，认为它们不但不能倒，甚至不可问责。


America can no longer regard itself as the land of opportunity that it once was.	美国不能再向从前那样自视为希望之地了。


But it does not have to be this way: it is not too late for the American dream to be restored.	但妄自菲薄也不可取：振作起来重塑美国梦为时未晚。


The Primacy of NATO	北约的重要性


F OR PUBLICATION FEBRUARY 22, NOT BEFORE	FOR PUBLICATION FEBRUARY 22, NOT BEFORE


Today, 26 NATO Heads of State and Government will meet at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. They are here to demonstrate a strong spirit of unity in the transatlantic community, a determination to look forward and take action together.	今日，北约26个联盟国的首脑在布鲁塞尔的北约总部齐聚一堂，以展现跨大西洋两岸无以伦比的团结精神，表达他们期待共同行动的决心。


There are important questions to be addressed, not only about the direction of NATO’s missions and operations, but also about the future of transatlantic security cooperation and the role the Alliance will play.	有诸多重要问题需要解决，不仅包括北约使命与其行动的方向，还有跨大西洋安全合作的将来以及北约将要发挥的作用。


The broad range of issues to be discussed mirrors the essential place of the Alliance in addressing today’s security challenges.	这些即将被讨论的议题范围之广反映了北约在面对当今安全挑战中的重要地位。


They will discuss how to reinforce the success the international community has had in helping to build a new, democratic Afghanistan.	他们将要讨论如何巩固国际社会在帮助建立一个全新民主的阿富汗方面所取得的胜利。


NATO and its members are already providing the essential security Afghanistan needs in order to make its aspirations for self-sustaining peace and prosperity a reality.	北约与其成员国已经在向阿富汗提供他们所需的安全措施，以满足他们实现自我持久和平和繁荣的愿望。


Today, NATO leaders will reaffirm their commitment to the courageous people of this country: we will help them for as long as it takes.	今天，北约领导人再次重申他们对这个国家勇敢的人民们的承诺“我们将永远帮助他们。 ”


Iraq is a case in point.	伊拉克就是个例证。


All 26 NATO nations are now, as an Alliance, working together to respond to the Iraqi government’s request for support: by training Iraqi security forces, by providing equipment, or by helping to fund NATO’s efforts.	北约26国，作为一个联盟，现在正通力合作，通过培训伊拉克安全部队、为其提供设备以及帮助北约行动筹措资金，对伊拉克政府提出的支援请求做出反应。


We are building a stronger relationship with the broader Middle East.	我们正在与一个更为广阔的中东建立一种更稳固的关系。


Already, the Alliance is developing a deeper political dialogue and more practical cooperation with the countries of North Africa, Israel and Jordan, and opening up a discussion with the Gulf States.	北约已经开始与北非诸国、以色列和约旦发展更深入的政治谈话，推动更实际层面的合作，并对海湾国家打开了谈话之窗。


When Dr. Rice made her first visit as Secretary of State to NATO headquarters two weeks ago, Alliance Foreign Ministers had a discussion about the Middle East Peace Process.	两周前，赖斯博士就任美国国务卿后，首次来到北约总部进行访问，并与北约各国外交部长就中东和平进程问题进行会晤。


The broader Middle East will be on the agenda of Heads and State and Government again today.	今天，一个更为广阔的中东将再次被摆上各国首脑的议事日程。


Many other critical political issues will be addressed: from ensuring stability in Kosovo as the political situation evolves this year; to the importance of maintaining strong relations and a frank dialogue with Russia; to building a stronger relationship with the EU, one that maximises the complementarity between our two organisations; to supporting the new government in Ukraine as it finds its path.	大会还将解决许多其他重要的政治问题：从如何根据今年科索沃地区的政局发展保证该地区的稳定性，到与欧盟之间建立更为稳固的关系，这将最优化我们两个组织之间的互补程度； 以及对寻找到自己道路的新乌克兰政府给予援助。


In that regard, this morning NATO leaders will welcome their first meeting with President Yushchenko.	从这方面来看，今早所有的北约领导人将对他们与尤申科总统的首次会晤表示欢迎。


They will share with him their common determination to help him build a better, more democratic future for his people, and strengthen Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration.	他们将与他共享他们的一致决定：帮助他为他的人民造就一个更美好、更民主的未来，并推动乌克兰融入欧洲-大西洋的整合。


But NATO leaders will also lift their eyes from the immediate challenges of the day, and discuss a fundamental strategic question as well: how to use NATO to its fullest potential as a platform for holding political discussions and building transatlantic consensus across the wide range of the issues where Europe and North America share common interests and wish to defend common values.	但是北约领导人也会将他们的目光从当前面临的挑战上移开，讨论基本战略问题：如何最大限度地发挥北约举行政治讨论的平台作用，以及如何在一系列欧洲和北美享有共同利益、维护相同价值观的问题上，创建跨大西洋两岸的共识。


NATO is the only permanent political forum in which North America sits together with Europe.	北约是唯一一个能够使北美与欧洲坐在一起的永久性政治论坛。


This is a unique framework for profound transatlantic political consultation and effective military cooperation.	它是一个为跨大西洋两岸更深层的政治协商和有效的军事合作而设的独一无二的框架。


And it works -- but it can do more.	并且它正在运作中——但是它能做的还有很多。


The Alliance can and should be the place to discuss and debate a broader range of political issues.	北约能够也应该成为一个对一系列更为广泛的政治问题进行商讨并辩论的地方。


Indeed, as we face today’s security challenges - terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, failed states - we cannot afford not to.	其实，当我们面对今日的安全挑战时——恐怖主义、大规模杀伤性武器的扩散、试销国家——这些挑战容不得我们回避。


I am encouraged that, more and more, Alliance leaders are coming to share the same view.	越来越多的北约领导人开始达成相同观点，这令我倍受鼓舞。


Today’s Summit meeting will give a new impulse to NATO’s political evolution.	今天的高峰会将给北约的政治进程注入新活力。


That evolution will accelerate in the coming months and years, as NATO’s strengthens its role in shaping and delivering transatlantic security cooperation in the 21st century.	箬北约在21世纪能促成跨大西洋两岸安全合作的达成，加强它在这方面的影响时，这一进程将在不久的未来大大加速。


Capitalists for Inclusive Growth	包容性增长资本主义


LONDON – In 2012, the Pew Research Center found that 85% of self-described middle-class adults in the United States believe that it is more difficult now than it was a decade ago for people like them to maintain their standard of living.	伦敦—2012年，皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）发现，85%的美国自称中产阶级成年人认为，和十年前相比，维持生活水平对他们来说变得更加困难了。


The share of Americans who say that they are in the lower-middle or lower class has risen from a quarter of the adult population in 2008 to around a third today.	自称属于中低阶级或低级阶级的成年美国人比例从2008年的四分之一上升到现在的三分之一左右。


And Pew’s research found that only 63% of those surveyed believe that hard work leads to success, down from 74% in 1999.	皮尤中心的研究还发现，只有63%的受访者认为努力工作能带来成功，而1999年的比例为74%。


These statistics, which represent popular sentiment in the world’s largest economy, should raise significant concerns for governments and business leaders elsewhere, particularly in countries challenged by stagnant growth and rising levels of youth unemployment.	这些数字代表了世界最大经济体的公众情绪，应该引起其他多家政府和商业领袖的严重关注，特别是面临增长停滞和年轻人失业暴增的国家。


Indeed, in January, the IMF revised its near-term outlook for eurozone growth downward, to -0.2% in 2013.	事实上，1月IMF将其2013年欧元区增长短期展望向下修正至-0. 2%。


Meanwhile, official data from Spain indicate that the jobless rate rose to 26% (almost six million people) in the last three months of 2012, the highest figure since the mid-1970’s, with the rate of youth unemployment reaching 55%.	与此同时，西班牙正式数据表明其2012年四季度失业率升至26%（近600万人失业），为20世纪70年代中期以来最高值，年轻人失业率达到了55%。


The need for growth – specifically, the kind of inclusive growth that can provide jobs for the vast number of out-of-work young people and combat rising levels of income inequality – has never been more vital.	增长需要——具体地说，是可以为广大无工作年轻人提供工作岗位并遏制不断上升的收入不平等性水平的包容性增长的需要——从未如此重要。


Nevertheless, today’s debates about how to achieve sustainable, inclusive growth are too narrowly focused on the role of governments and policymakers.	尽管如此，眼下关于如何实现可持续包容性增长的争论仍狭隘地聚焦于政府和决策者的角色。


The role of the private sector – with its multinational reach, vast piles of cash, and ability to innovate – has been neglected.	私人部门——及其多方位的触及面、大量的现金持有量以及创新能力——的角色一直被忽视了。


There are three main areas to which business should turn its attention if capitalism is to function in a more inclusive way and meet society’s most pressing needs.	如果资本主义想以更包容的方式运行并满足社会最紧迫的需要，那么商界必须将着眼点转向三个领域。


First, companies should work to overcome skills/jobs mismatches by investing in vocational training and apprenticeships.	首先，公司应该致力于通过投资职业培训和学徒制克服技能/岗位错配。


Companies like Rolls-Royce and British Gas operate impressive apprenticeship schemes that add value for their businesses by creating a pipeline of talented recruits.	罗尔斯-罗伊斯公司和英国天然气公司等公司所实行的学徒制令人印象深刻，这一制度使它们得以通过创造人才培养渠道增加商业价值。


Other initiatives have been established to scale up these efforts by engaging multiple companies to create entry-level positions for the significant number of young people who are currently unemployed.	其他通过让多家公司参与创造面向大量处于失业状态年轻人的入门级岗位的扩大这方面努力的计划也已经成立。


Second, just as a collective effort is needed to strengthen the skills of national workforces, so, too, an industry commitment is required to support small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) as part of the wider business environment.	其次，正如需要集体努力增强国民劳动大军的技能一样，产业界也需要作出承诺支持作为广义商业环境一部分的中小企业。


In its 2011 fiscal year, Hewlett-Packard used more than 600 SMEs in its supply chain in the United Kingdom, representing nearly 10% of its spending on suppliers.	在2011财年，惠普公司将600家中小企业纳入其英国供应链，占其供应商支出的近10%。


HP aims to increase this share to more than 15% by the end of 2013 with the addition of a further 150 SMEs, thereby fueling what it rightly regards as the engine of UK economic growth.	惠普公司的目标是在2013年末再增加150家中小企业，将这一比例提高到15%以上，为这一名副其实的英国经济增长引擎添加燃料。


Similarly, in March 2012, a consortium of large corporations led by IBM created the web-based Supplier Connection to make it easier for small businesses to become suppliers to large companies.	类似地，2012年3月，以IBM为首的大企业联盟成立了基于网络的供应商网络（Supplier Connection），让小企业更容易成为大公司的供应商。


Currently, the members of Supplier Connection purchase more than $150 billion in goods and services annually through their global supply chains.	目前，供应商网络成员企业每年通过其全球供应链采购的商品和服务额超过1500亿美元。


Finally, public corporations must be managed for the long term, and should be rewarded by investors for being more inclusive.	最后，上市公司必须着眼于长期治理，投资者应该因其包容性而给予其奖励。


For example, Unilever has rejected the short-term pressures of capital markets by ending quarterly earnings reporting and broadening its focus to advance greater social interests, rather than just the interests of its shareholders.	比如，联合利华拒绝了资本市场的短期压力——不再公布盈利季报，扩大其注意力以推进更大的社会利益，而不仅仅着眼于股东利益。


But enlightened companies require enlightened investors.	但开明企业需要开明投资者。


The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is exemplary in its commitment to supporting the best governance practices in the companies in which it invests, and it has reaped large benefits from this approach: the Plan has earned average annual returns of 10% since its inception in 1990.	安大略教师退休金计划（Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan）就是一个范例，它致力���支持其所投资的公司的最佳治理实践，并从这一方法中获益良多：自1990年成立以来，年均回报率为10%。


The idea that underlies all of these initiatives, and the notion of inclusive capitalism itself, is that companies must be managed for the long term.	这些动作的背后思想，以及包容性资本主义本身的概念，在于公司管理必须着眼长期。 遵循这一方法的公司会关心未来劳动力的技能；


Companies that follow this approach are concerned with the skills of their future workforces; seek to build loyal and productive supplier bases; and make investment decisions based on sustainable value creation, not short-term profitability.	寻求打造忠诚且富于生产率的供应商基础； 并以可持续价值创造而不是短期盈利性为基础做出投资决策。


There is no contradiction between delivering high returns and adopting a long-term approach.	产生高回报和采取长期视角之间并不矛盾。


Furthermore, as companies begin to adopt these practices, a rising tide will lift all boats: with greater support, SMEs, which currently account for 99% of businesses and two-thirds of private-sector employment in the European Union, will be able to invest in research and development, and to hire more employees.	此外，当公司这样做时，所有企业都能乘东风：有了更大的支持，中小企业——目前占欧盟企业总数的99%，私人部门就业总数的三分之二——将能够投资于研发并雇用更多员工。


In turn, large companies will receive the benefits of faster innovation, rates of youth unemployment will fall, and the hollowing out of the middle class – and its faith in future living standards – will be reversed.	反过来，大公司将收获更快创新的好处，年轻人失业率会下降，中产阶级——及其对未来生活水平的信念——遭遇挖空的趋势也会逆转。


It is this type of profoundly positive influence on prospects for shared prosperity and inclusive growth that currently eludes national governments.	目前与各国政府躲猫猫的正是这类对共同繁荣和包容性增长前景的深远的积极影响。


The Problem with “China Bashing”	“排华风潮”的问题所在


Pressure on China today to push up the value of the yuan against the dollar is eerily similar to the pressure on Japan 30 years ago to make the yen appreciate.	当前人民币相对美元升值的压力和30年前日本在日元升值上所承受的压力极其相似。


Back then, “Japan bashing” came to mean the threat of US trade sanctions unless Japan softened competitive pressure on American industries.	当年“排日风潮”的意思是除非日本软化其对于美国产业的竞争压力，否则美国将以贸易制裁相威胁。


By 1995, the Japanese economy had become so depressed by the overvalued yen ( endaka fukyo ) that the Americans relented and announced a new “strong dollar” policy.	到了1995年，日本经济在过度升值的日元影响下变得如此低迷，以至于美国也变得温和，并宣布实施新的“强势美元”政策。


Now “China bashing” has taken over, and the result could be just as bad, if not worse.	现在又轮到“排华风潮”了，而其结果的严重程度可能比日本所遭遇的有过之而无不及。


By 2000, China’s bilateral trade surplus was as large as Japan’s; by 2004, it was twice as large.	2000年，中国对美国的贸易顺差和日本相当； 而到了2004年则是日本的两倍。


Whereas Japan bashing included “voluntary” restraints on exports that threatened US heavy industries, where lobbies were concentrated and politically potent, recent Chinese exports have mainly been low- to middle-tech products of light industry.	排日风潮包括（日本）“主动”对威胁美国重工业的商品出口进行限制。 （美国国内）在这方面游说的政治势力非常强大和集中。


Thus, China bashing primarily means pressure to revalue the yuan.	而近期中国的出口商品主要是中、低档的轻工业品，因此，排华风潮首先意味着为人民币重新估价的压力。


However, this demand is as unwarranted now as was pressure on Japan to make the yen appreciate.	然而，这种需求就如同当初迫使日元升值的压力一样，是毫无根据的。


The financial press and many influential economists argue that a major depreciation of the dollar is needed to correct America’s external deficit.	财经媒体和许多有影响的经济学家都认为需要对美元来一次重大贬值，以扭转美国国内赤字的状况。


But the US current-account deficit – about 6% of GDP in 2004 and 2005 – mainly reflects a new round of deficit spending by the US federal government and surprisingly low personal savings by American households (perhaps because of the bubble in US residential real estate).	但美国经常项目下的赤字—约为2004和2005年GDP的6%--主要反映了美国联邦政府的新一轮赤字开支和美国家庭不可思议的低个人储蓄率（很可能是美国住宅不动产市场的泡沫造成的）。


Moreover, the cure can be worse than the disease.	另外，治疗可能比疾病本身还糟糕。


Sustained appreciation of a creditor country’s currency against the world’s dominant money is a recipe for a slowdown in economic growth, followed by eventual deflation, as Japan found in the 1990’s – with no obvious decline in its large relative trade surplus.	债权国的货币针对占世界统治地位的货币的持续升值会引起经济增长减缓，并最终带来通货紧缩，正如日本在1990年代所遭遇的那样—其相对贸易顺差也没有明显减少。


In a rapidly growing developing country whose financial system is still immature, introducing exchange-rate flexibility in order to insulate domestic macroeconomic policy from the ebb and flow of international payments, as the IMF advocates, is an even more questionable strategy.	在一个金融体系尚不成熟的，经济快速增长的发展中国家引入灵活汇率以使国内宏观经济政策免受国际支付涨跌的影响—这种由国际货币基金组织倡导的战略更是值得商榷。


If a discrete exchange-rate appreciation is to be sustained, it must reflect expected monetary policies: tight money and deflation in the appreciated country, and easy money with inflation in the depreciated country.	如果一种非连续性的汇率升值要成为连续性的，它就必须反映预期的货币政策：升值国的银根和通货紧缩，与贬值国的银根放松与通货膨胀。


But domestic money growth in China’s immature bank-based capital market is high and unpredictable, while many interest rates remain officially pegged.	但是在中国以银行为基础、尚不成熟的资本市场上，本国货币量高速增长而又不可预测，而同时许多利率还是由官方固定的。


Thus, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) cannot rely on observed domestic money growth or interest rates to indicate whether monetary policy is too tight or too loose.	因此，中国人民银行不能依靠其观察到的国内货币增长量和利率来指示货币政策的松紧程度。


From 1995 to July 21, 2005, China’s authorities held the now unified exchange rate constant at 8.28 yuan/dollar (plus or minus 0.3%).	从1995年到2005年7月21日，中国政府一直将现在已经统一的汇率控制在8. 28元/美元（正负0.


They subordinated domestic monetary and fiscal policies to maintaining the fixed exchange rate – even during the 1997-98 Asian crisis, despite great pressure to devalue.	3%）的水平。 当局让国内的货币和财政政策都服从于维持固定汇率—即使是在贬值压力极大的1997-98年亚洲（金融）危机期间。


They also dismantled tariffs and quotas on imports faster than their World Trade Organization obligations required.	中国政府解除进口关税和配额的步伐也比世贸组织义务的要求更快。


Greater economic openness, coupled with the fixed nominal exchange rate, ended China’s inflationary roller-coaster ride, and, after 1994, real GDP growth also became more stable.	更高的经济开放度加上固定的名义汇率，使中国摆脱了通胀，并且在1994年以后的实际GDP增长也变得更加稳定。


The government is now seeking to decontrol domestic interest rates, create a more robust domestic bond market, and finally remove capital controls.	中国政府现在正试图放开国内利率，创造一个更为健全的国内债券市场，并最终解除资本控制。


However, with China’s economy currently threatened by ongoing yuan appreciation, liberalizing the financial system could have perverse short-run consequences.	然而，由于中国经济正遭受人民币升值的威胁，金融体系的自由化可能会造成短期的反作用。


In a liberalized capital market, the undiminished risk that the yuan might appreciate means that investors must be compensated by a higher interest rate on dollar assets.	在一个自由化的资本市场，时时存在的人民币升值风险意味着投资者必须通过美元资产的更高利率来获得补偿。


But interest rates on dollar assets are given in world markets independently of what China does.	但美元资产的利率是由世界各市场独立给予，和中国的所为无关。


Thus, the market can establish the necessary interest differential only if interest rates on yuan assets fall below their dollar equivalents.	因此，只有人民币资产的利率低于其美元等价物时，市场才能够建立必要的息差（interest differential）。


As the huge buildup of dollar reserves – now almost $800 billion – expands China’s domestic monetary base, short-term interest rates will be driven down, at least until they hit zero.	由于巨额的美元储备—现在近8000亿人民币—扩大了中国的国内货币基础，短期利率会走低，至少直到其为零。


In May 2006, the fairly free domestic interbank rate was just 1.62%, while the US Federal Funds rate was 5%.	在2006年5月，相对自由的国内银行间利率只有1. 62%，而同期美国联邦基金利率则是5%。


Just letting the yuan float upward does not resolve the dilemma.	仅仅让人民币向上浮动解决不了这一困境。


Actual appreciation would lead to actual deflation and further downward pressure on domestic interest rates.	实际的升值会导致实际的通货紧缩，及对国内利率的进一步向下的压力。


If actual appreciation does not reduce China’s trade surplus, pressure to appreciate the yuan further would only continue, as was true for Japan before 1995.	如果实际的升值没有减少中国的贸易顺差，那么人民币进一步升值的压力只会继续，就如同日本在1995年以前的情况一样。


If China is to avoid falling into a Japanese-style liquidity trap, the best solution is to fix its exchange rate in a completely credible way so that there is no fear of currency appreciation.	如果中国要避免日本式的流动性陷阱，最佳的解决之道就是以一种完全可靠的方式固定其汇率，以便不再担心货币升值。


Then financial liberalization could proceed with market interest rates remaining at normal levels.	如此一来，金融自由化就可以在保持正常利率水平的情况下推进。


But China’s abandonment of the yuan’s “traditional parity” in July 2005 rules out a new, credibly fixed exchange-rate strategy for some time.	但中国在2005年7月放弃人民币的“传统平衡”，其实就是在一段时间内排除了一种新的、可靠的固定汇率战略。


Failing this, China must postpone full liberalization of its financial markets.	由于这一失误，中国必须推迟其金融市场的全��自由化。


This means retaining, and possibly strengthening, capital controls on inflows of highly liquid “hot” money from dollars into yuan, and continuing to peg certain interest rates, such as basic deposit and loan rates, to help preserve the profitability of banks.	这意味着保持并可能强化对高流动性的美元“热”钱流入并转换为人民币的情况的资本控制，还要继续和包括基本存款和贷款利率在内的某些利率挂钩，以帮助银行保持赢利能力。


Such measures are, of course, an unfortunate detour.	当然，这样的手段是一种不幸的舍近求远。


True, China’s economy is now growing robustly and is not likely to face actual deflation anytime soon, but if China does fall into a zero-interest rate trap, the PBC, like the BOJ, would be unable to offset deflationary pressure in the event of a large exchange-rate appreciation.	诚然，中国经济现在正稳健地增长，并且在短期内不太会遭遇实际的通货紧缩。 但如果中国真地陷入了零利率陷阱，那么中国人民银行和日本银行一样，将不能在汇率大幅升值的情况下抵消通缩压力。


With short-term interest rates locked at zero, pressure for further appreciation would leave the PBC helpless to re-expand the economy.	由于短期利率锁定为零，进一步升值的压力将使中国人民银行无法再扩大经济规模。


China’s monetary and foreign exchange policies are now in a state of limbo.	中国的货币政策和外汇政策正处在不稳定状态。


Instead of stable guidelines with a well-defined monetary (exchange rate) anchor and a firm mandate to complete financial liberalization, China’s macroeconomic and financial decision making will be ad hoc and anybody’s guess – as was true, and still is, for Japan.	在没有明确的货币（汇率）支撑的稳定指导方针的情况下，中国的宏观经济和金融决策将会是因势而变、任人猜想的—正如日本过去和现在的情况一样。


The concept of “illiberal democracy,” attributable to a 1997 essay by the American foreign-policy thinker Fareed Zakaria, was an effort to describe regimes that held elections, but did not observe the rule of law and regularly overrode their political systems’ constitutional checks and balances.	“不自由的民主”这一概念可以追溯到美国外交政策思想家法里德·扎卡里亚（Fareed Zakaria）1977年的一篇文章，扎卡里亚用它来描述举行选举，但不遵守法治并且时常凌驾于政治制度的宪法制衡之上的政权。


Learning from Lehman	从雷曼兄弟身上吸取教训


HONG KONG – When the US investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed five years ago, emerging-market economies did not hold many of the toxic financial assets – mainly American subprime mortgages – that fueled the subsequent global financial crisis.	香港—五年前，当美国投行雷曼兄弟倒闭时，新兴市场经济体并未大量持有助长随后全球金融危机的有毒金融资产（主要是美国次级按揭贷款）。


But they were deeply affected by the drop in world trade, which recorded a peak-to-trough decline of at least 15%, with trade finance also contracting sharply, owing to a shortage of dollar liquidity. Have policymakers responded appropriately since then?	但世界贸易却出现了断崖式下降（超过15%），贸易融资也急剧收缩（因为美元流动性短缺），这给新兴市场经济体带来了严重影响。


Soon after the crisis erupted, the G-20 countries embraced massive stimulus packages, unconventional monetary policies in the advanced economies, and major institutional efforts, such as the Dodd-Frank financial-reform legislation in the United States and the Basel III initiative to strengthen banking standards.	危机爆发后不久，G20国家纷纷采取大规模刺激计划、发达经济体的非常规货币政策以及美国多德-弗兰克等金融改革法和旨在加强银行监管和稳健运行的巴塞尔III计划等重大制度性措施。


China’s ¥4 trillion stimulus package, unveiled in November 2008, restored confidence in global commodity markets.	中国在2008年11月推出了四万亿人民币的刺激计划，重振了全球商品市场的信心。


Led by strong Chinese growth, emerging markets stabilized.	在中国强劲增长的带动下，新兴市场开始企稳。


Since 2009, quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve has resulted in record-low interest rates around the world.	2009年以来，美联储的量化宽松（QE）给全世界带来了创纪录的低利率。


But, while the resulting surge in capital flows to emerging markets stimulated economic growth, it also inflated asset bubbles.	但是，由此产生的流向新兴市场的资本流虽然刺激了经济增长，也带来了资产泡沫。


Now, with the Fed publicly considering an end to its massive, open-ended purchases of long-term securities and foreign capital fleeing home from emerging markets, many fear that Asia’s economies could come crashing down, as they did in the late 1990’s.	如今，随着美联储公开考虑结束无限期大规模购买长期证券的操作，外国资本纷纷从新兴市场回流母国，许多人担心亚洲经济体将迎来崩溃，一如20世纪90年代末所发生过的事情。


Leverage in some emerging markets’ household and corporate sectors has reached record levels.	同时，一些新兴市场家庭和公司部门的杠杆水平创下了纪录。


China’s annual economic growth has slowed to around 7.5%, while Indonesia and India – and, outside Asia, Brazil and South Africa – are experiencing sharp downward pressure on their exchange rates.	中国年经济增长率放缓至7. 5%，印尼和印度——在亚洲之外还有巴西和南非——的汇率承受着大幅贬值的压力。


Moreover, there has been no major reform of the global financial architecture.	此外，全球金融结构并未发生重大改革。


China’s renminbi is internationalizing, but its share of global payments remains relatively small, with the dollar retaining its role as the world’s main reserve currency.	人民币正在走向国际化，但其占全球支付的份额仍然相对较小，美元仍是世界主要储备货币。


And, while regulatory reform is progressing, its effectiveness in addressing the weaknesses exposed by the global financial crisis will depend not only on the new rules that emerge, but also on the consistency and quality of their implementation.	此外，尽管监管改革取得了进展，但其在纠正全球金融危机所暴露出来的弱点方面的效果不但将取决于新规则，也将取决于改革实施的一致性和实际的效果。


There has been commendable progress on the Basel 3 capital requirements for banks, with 25 of 27 Basel Committee members having issued final rules.	巴塞尔III在银行资本要求方面的进步值得赞赏，27个巴塞尔委员会成员中有25个公布了最终规则。


Likewise, the impact of regulatory changes resulting from major legislation and policy directives in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom on banking, insurance, financial-transaction taxes, anti-money laundering, and cyber-space is likely to be substantial.	类似地，美国、英国和欧洲在银行、保险、金融交易税、反洗钱和网络空间方面的重大立法和政策指令所带来的监管变化也可能形成相当重大的影响。


Although rules on shadow-banking have yet to be formulated, another problem exposed by the crisis has abated: America’s external deficit has shrunk to a much more manageable 2-3% of GDP, accompanied by drops in the surpluses run by Japan and China.	尽管影子银行规则还有待制定，但另一个危机所暴露出来的问题已经消失：随着日本和中国外部盈余的下降，美国外部赤字已降至GDP的2—3%，这一水平比较容易管理。


Global trade rebalancing has arrived.	全球贸易初步平衡已经形成。


Still, fiscal conditions in the advanced economies remain unsustainable, with many OECD members’ debt levels hovering around 100% of GDP.	但发达经济体的财政状况仍是不可持续的，许多经合组织成员债务水平高达GDP的100%左右。


Japan, which has one of the world’s highest debt/GDP ratios, currently well over 200%, is engaging in a risky experiment with further monetary stimulus to try to target 2% annual inflation.	作为世界上债务/GDP之比最高的国家之一，日本的这一比例早已超过200%，并且其正在进行危险的实验，试图通过进一步货币刺激达到2%的年度通胀率目标。


In many advanced economies, both monetary and fiscal policies have reached the limits of their effectiveness.	在许多发达经济体，货币和财政政策已经达到了效果的极限。


The key questions now are whether global economic growth is self-sustaining without QE, whether emerging markets’ output will continue to rise strongly, albeit at a slower pace, and whether current global financial-reform efforts will be sufficient to prevent another crisis in emerging markets.	现今的关键问题是全球经济增长是否可以在没有QE的情况下自我维持，新兴市场的产出是否能保持强劲增长（尽管速度可能有所放慢），以及当前全球金融改革措施是否足以防止新兴市场爆发新一轮危机。


Given the high degree of trade and financial globalization that now characterizes the world economy, there is no doubt that the slowdown in the advanced economies, which account for two-thirds of global GDP, will undermine emerging-country growth. Indeed, the threat to withdraw QE is already having an enormous impact on emerging economies’ asset markets.	如今，贸易和金融的高度全球化已成为世界经济的一大特征，在这样的背景下，占全球GDP三分之二的发达经济体的减速毫无疑问将拖累新兴国家的增长。


As real interest rates and risk premia begin to rise, the level of global trade and investment will decline.	事实上，退出QE的风险已经对新兴经济体的资产市场造成了严重冲击。


In the coming years, emerging markets will most likely struggle with implementation of global financial regulatory standards, which apply mostly to more sophisticated financial markets. They will also confront a rapidly changing external environment and a growing need to manage capital flows more effectively, which will require much closer coordination between central banks and financial regulators.	随着真实利率和风险溢价开始上升，全球贸易和投资水平将下降。


Indeed, perhaps the most important lesson learned in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers is that we can no longer afford to examine problems in terms of individual institutions and from regulatory “silos.”	在未来几年中，新兴市场极有可能因为全球金融监管标准（主要适用于更成熟的金融市场）的实施出现困难。


The global economy’s high degree of interconnectivity, interdependence, and complex feedback mechanisms imply that one weak hub can bring down the entire system.	新兴市场还面临着快速变化的外部环境和日益迫切的有效管理资本流的需要，后者需要央行和金融监管者之间的更紧密的合作。


In other words, the world needs a systemic approach to deal with systemic risks and system failures.	事实上，雷曼兄弟倒闭后给我们带来的最重要的教训或许是我们不能再以个别机构和监管“粮仓”角度观察问题。


Unfortunately, there may be little hope of strengthening global financial governance as long as implementation and enforcement of rules remain at the national level.	全球经济的高度互联性和互赖性以及复杂的反馈机制意味着一个弱点可能导致整个系统崩塌。


Like other emerging markets, China is committed to financial stability and playing its role in reforming the global financial system.	换句话说，世界需要一套系统性方法处理系统性风险和系统性失灵。


China was one of the first countries to sign up to the Basel 3 standards, and further renminbi internationalization will be implemented in a prudent and pragmatic manner. Domestic financial reforms will focus on strengthening policy coordination and moving toward market-determined interest rates and exchange-rate flexibility.	不幸的是，只要规则的实施和执行只在国家层面展开，全球金融治理就很难得到强化。


All of these steps will contribute to sustainable domestic growth and a more stable global financial system.	与其他新兴市场经济体类似，中国致力于金融稳定，并在改革全球金融系统中起到了自己的作用。


Other major emerging economies’ policymakers would be wise to act with the same purpose in mind.	中国是首批签署巴塞尔III标准的国家之一，人民币的进一步国际化也将依审慎务实的路径下展开。 国内金融改革将集中在强化政策协调以及利率市场化和汇率弹性化。


Read more from "The Lehman Legacy"	所有这些步骤有助于铸就可持续的国内增长和更稳定的全球金融系统。 明智的其他主要新兴经济体决策者也会朝同样的方向努力。


The Promise of Central Asia	中亚的希望


Central Asia is frequently in the news these days – and most of the news seems to be bad.	今天，中亚成了新闻报道的热点¾但绝大多数都不是什么好消息。


The casual reader, viewer, and listener has become acquainted with a region of landlocked and poor countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – that share a legacy of isolation, squandered natural resources, environmental degradation, and Soviet-era political systems.	心不在焉的读者、看客和听众知道了这些被陆地包围的贫困国家¾哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦。 这些国家在传统上都很封闭、自然资源浪费和环境退化问题严重，有着苏联时期遗留下来的共同的政治体系。


And yet, it is also a region with a distant history of great economic and cultural achievement in the Silk Road era, and that recently has emerged as a focus of renewed global competition reminiscent of the Cold War.	但这些国家在遥远的丝绸之路年代曾取得过经济和文化领域的非凡成就，现在又再次成了全球竞争的焦点，勾起人们对冷战时期的回忆。


Can Central Asia regain a key role at the center of the huge Eurasian landmass, surrounded by some of the world’s most dynamic economies – China, Russia, and India?	紧靠着世界最具活力的经济¾中国、俄国和印度，中亚能否重新在欧亚大陆的中心地带发挥重要作用？


While there is a laudable international effort to help Africa grow out of heavy donor dependency in the next decade, the equally momentous economic-development and human-security challenges facing Central Asia is generally not fully understood.	尽管未来10年内帮助非洲摆脱援助依赖的国际计划值得赞美，但同样重要的中亚经济发展和人身安全问题却没有引起足够的重视。


History and geography – measured by distance from the closest seaports – have isolated these countries physically, economically, and socially, and have exacerbated the difficulties of their transitions to market economies.	历史和地理¾按照与最近海港的距离计算¾在地理、经济和社会领域使这些国家与世隔绝，加大了它们向市场经济过渡的困难。


The result is that development and governance indicators in Central Asia are on par with those in many sub-Saharan African countries.	这些因素造成中亚社会的发展和管理指标与很多地处撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家不相上下。


The Central Asian Human Development Report, recently launched by the United Nations Development Program, argues that the countries of Central Asia have a great opportunity to capitalize on their location at the center of a dynamic continent, their abundant natural resources, and their still-strong potential to forge a prosperous, stable, and cohesive region.	联合国开发计划署最近发表的《中亚人权发展报告》认为中亚国家应该利用其地处活跃大陆中心的绝佳机会，利用所拥有的丰富自然资源并发挥建设繁荣、稳定和统一中亚的强大潜力。


This will require them to open up to the rest of the world, cooperate with each other and their neighbors, and radically reform their antiquated political systems.	它们必须向世界敞开大门，相互合作并且与临近国家密切配合，从根本上改革陈旧的政治体系。


Regional cooperation should include areas ranging from trade, transport, and transit, to water and energy, as well as efforts to control of drug trafficking.	地区合作应涉及从贸易、交通、运输到水力、能源等诸多领域，严厉打击贩毒行为。


The Report estimates that by doing so, and by improving their investment climates and governance, Central Asian countries can double their incomes over ten years, modernize their economies, connect with the rest of the world, and improve the lives of their citizens dramatically.	报告预计如果采取了上述措施，改善各自国内的投资和管理环境，那么中亚国家的收入能够在10年的时间内增加一倍，实现经济现代化、加强与世界各国的联系并大大提高人民的生活水平。


Currently, the region suffers from tremendous transport and transit constraints.	目前，中亚地区深受严重交通和运输限制的困扰。


Trade times and costs are unnaturally high due to unintegrated and lengthy border procedures, high tariff rates, corruption, and underinvestment in transport infrastructure.	边境手续不统一、耗时长、关税高、腐败严重和对交通设施投资不足导致了贸易时间及成本居高不下。


These costs could be halved by better customs, border and transit management, improved transport corridors and more competitive transport services.	改善海关服务、加强边境和运输管理、开辟交通通道和提供竞争力更强的交通服务可以使上述成本下降一半。


By joining the World Trade Organization, improving their investment climates, and stopping interference with shuttle traders – mostly poor women trying to make a living –governments would give the region’s businesses and farmers access to markets and attract much-needed new investment.	通过加入世贸组织、改善投资环境以及停止干预往返贸易¾从事往返贸易的大多是急于谋生的贫困妇女¾政府就能够使区域内的企业和农户接触市场，并且吸引新的急需投资。


Central Asia is blessed with an abundance of energy and water resources, even though much is wasted by inefficient use and poor maintenance of infrastructure.	尽管设备的低效利用和糟糕维护使很多资源白白地浪费，中亚的能源及水利资源仍然非常丰富。


An estimated $1.7 billion of agricultural production is lost annually due to poor water management.	每年由于低效水利管理造成的农业生产损失达到17亿美元以上。


The region is poised to become one of the main suppliers of oil and gas for world energy markets, and its big rivers, if properly managed, have the capacity to provide enough water both for irrigation and for electricity exports to China, India, and Russia.	中亚地区即将成为世界能源市场主要的油气供应商，而且境内的河流如果管理得法，能够为中国、印度和俄罗斯提供充足的灌溉和发电资源。


But cooperation is needed both within the region and with key neighbors in order to realize effective regional water and energy management.	但要想实现地区水资源和能源的有效管理，不仅需要中亚国家相互精诚合作，还要与主要邻国建立密切的合作关系。


The region is also at risk from the effects of drug trafficking.	中亚地区还受到毒品走私的威胁。


While illicit drugs are moved through all Central Asian countries, Tajikistan bears the brunt of the scourge due to its location at the northern border of Afghanistan.	尽管该地区所有国家都要应对非法贩运的毒品，但塔吉克斯坦由于地处阿富汗北部边境要承受大部分冲击。


Up to 100 tons of heroin are estimated to pass through Tajikistan each year, which is equivalent to the estimated annual North American and West European demand.	每年途经塔吉克斯坦贩运的海洛因预计在100吨以上，相当于北美和西欧预计的全年需求。


Unless Central Asian countries and their neighbors cooperate in controlling drug production, use, and trafficking, this source of major health risks, corruption, and crime will not be eradicated.	除非中亚国家及其邻国在控制毒品生产、使用和运输领域精诚合作，否则这个健康、腐败和犯罪的主要根源就永远不会消除。


The good news today is that most of the Central Asian countries, their neighbors and the international community have recognized the importance of cooperation, openness, and integration.	现在的好消息是大多数中亚国家、周边邻国和国际社会已经认识到合作、开放和联合有多么重要。


Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are actively opening up and working together on many fronts.	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦正在积极开放，在很多领域进行合作。


Unfortunately, not all are equally interested in open borders and close cooperation: Turkmenistan stands aside and Uzbekistan’s borders remain substantially closed.	不幸的是，并非所有国家对开放边境和密切合作都有着同样的兴趣：土库曼斯坦袖手旁观，而乌兹别克斯坦基本还处于封闭状态。


Cooperation clearly is not only for the region’s governments; businesses, traders, and civil society must be involved as well.	显而易见，合作不仅限于中亚地区的政府，企业、商人和普通平民也必须参与。


Yet it will be up to the leadership in the region to overcome obstacles to openness and co-operation.	但克服困难实现开放与合作是地区领导的责任。


Market-oriented reforms and good governance are preconditions for effective cross-border ties.	以市场为导向的改革和良好管理是有效跨境关系的前提条件。


The international community, which has a shared interest in a prosperous, stable, and cohesive Central Asia, can and should play a supporting role in these efforts.	繁荣、稳定和统一的中亚符合国际社会的利益，因此后者也应该全力支持这方面的努力。


The Promise of Euro-Atlantic Missile Defense	欧洲大西洋导弹防御体系前景


BRUSSELS – The new strategic arms reduction treaty (START) that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and US President Barack Obama just signed in Prague is an historic achievement, and an inspiration for further progress in global arms control.  But at the same time, here and now, we must also prepare to defend against another, less encouraging trend.	布鲁塞尔——


The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery is a threat to both the NATO allies and Russia.	下周，俄罗斯总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫（Dmitry Medvedev）与美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）将于布拉格签署新的战略武器削减条约（START）。


A look at current trends shows that more than 30 countries have or are developing missile capabilities.	该协议的达成具有历史意义，能够进一步促进全球军备控制进程。


In many cases, these missiles could eventually threaten Europe’s populations and territories.	但此时此地，我们仍必须做好准备以防御一些负面影响。


Iran is a case in point.	大规模杀伤性武器扩散及其传播途径对北约盟国和俄罗斯都构成了威胁。


It has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and is developing a nuclear program that it claims is for civilian purposes only.	眼下的趋势表明，30多个国家已经或正在开发导弹能力。


But Iran has gone far beyond what is necessary for a purely civilian program. It has concealed several nuclear facilities from the International Atomic Energy Agency, played hide-and-seek with the international community, and rejected all offers of cooperation from the United States, the European Union, and others. Most recently, Iran’s government announced plans to enrich its uranium to levels that appear incompatible with civilian use and that defy several United Nations Security Council resolutions.	在许多方面，这类导弹将最终威胁到欧洲大众及各国领土。


Iran also has an extensive missile development program. Iranian officials declare that the range of their modified Shahab-3 missiles is 2,000 kilometers, putting Allied countries such as Turkey, Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria within reach.	伊朗签署《防止核扩散条约》后仍以民用目的为借口发展核计划，但其所作所为远非单纯民用。 伊朗向国际原子能机构隐瞒了多处核设施，对国际社会遮遮掩掩，拒绝了美国、欧盟等方面的一切合作意向。


In February 2009, Iran introduced the SAFIR 2 space launch vehicle.	此外，伊朗也有大规模导弹发展计划。


This is a key stage in the development of intermediate- and intercontinental-range missiles. If Iran completes this development, the whole of Europe, as well as all of Russia, would be within its range.	伊朗官员宣布，其流星-3（Shahab-3）改进型导弹射程为2千米，土耳其、希腊、罗马尼亚和保加利亚等欧盟成员国均在射程之内。


Proliferators must know that the NATO allies are unwavering in their commitment to collective defense, including nuclear deterrence.	2009年2月，伊朗推出了使者-2（Safir-2）运载火箭，成为中程及洲际导弹发展计划中的关键一步。


Confronted with the spread of missile technology, and unpredictable regimes and leaders, we owe it to our populations to complement our deterrence capabilities with an effective missile-defense capability.	一旦伊朗完成此项目，欧洲大陆以及俄罗斯全境都在其射程之内。


We are not starting from scratch. NATO allies have been looking at various missile-defense options for some time.	那些核武器扩散国必须明白，北约盟国将坚定不移地寻求包括核威慑在内的集体防卫。


NATO itself is developing protections for our deployed troops. But with the new US approach to missile defense, there are now much better opportunities for an effective NATO-wide system that would enhance the territorial defense of our populations and nations.	面对导弹技术传播与难以预料的政权和领导人，我们感谢欧洲大众以有效的导弹防御来为我们的威慑能力进行互补。


A true joint Euro-Atlantic missile defense would demonstrate NATO’s collective will, not only to defend against the new threats of today and tomorrow, but also to send a clear message that there is nothing to be gained from missile proliferation.	我们不需另起炉灶，因为北约盟国早已在寻求不同的导弹防御方案。 北约本身已在为军队部署提供防御。


It can also provide an opportunity for Europeans to demonstrate again to the US their willingness to invest in self-defense capabilities, and to play an active role in a process that, until now, has been conducted largely over their heads, by the US and Russia.	美国新提出的导弹防御方案将大大提高建立有效的全北约防御体系的可能性，从而加强欧洲大众及各国的领土防御能力。


But there is another reason for developing missile defense: to create a new dynamic in European and Euro-Atlantic security.	落实欧洲大西洋联合导弹防御体系，这反映了北约的集体意愿：在防御当前及未来的威胁的同时，也明确表明导弹扩散是毫无益处的。


There is much talk these days about the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Russia, in particular, has focused on treaties, conferences, and political arrangements.	此外，欧洲能借此再次向美国表明其建设自卫能力的意愿，并在至今仍主要由美国与俄罗斯一手包办的行动中做出积极贡献。


Clearly, these things can be useful and important. We should talk.	除此之外，发展导弹防御体系还有另一层原因，即建立欧洲以及欧洲大西洋新安全机制。


We should look for common political approaches, many of which we have already agreed, and could easily endorse again. But, to my mind, a joint security architecture must move beyond blueprints.	近来，有关欧洲大西洋安全架构的讨论不绝于耳，俄罗斯就已将精力集中于签署条约、召开会议以及达成政治协议之上。


In this respect, the news that the US and Russia have agreed on a follow-up treaty to START that will substantially cut both countries’ nuclear arsenals provides a good backdrop.	我们应该彼此对话。 我们应该寻求共同的政治途径，我们可以轻而易举得再次赞同已经达成的共识。


This new agreement makes the world safer, and it will give impetus to cooperation with Russia in other fields, particularly NATO-Russia relations.	但在我看来，联合安全架构必须将蓝图付诸实施。 建立导弹防御体系便是一条可靠途径。


Since taking office last summer, I have invested considerable time and effort in revitalizing the NATO-Russia relationship, with progress made in several areas, including a joint review of common threats and challenges.	由此看来，有关美国与俄罗斯已签署战略武器削减条约后续条约（该条约将大幅削减两国核武库）的消息提供了很好的背景。


But it is time to look at missile defense as another opportunity to bring us together.	该新协议将提高国际社会安全，并促进其它领域与俄罗斯的合作，特别是北约和俄罗斯的关系。


We need a missile-defense system that includes not just all NATO countries, but Russia, too. The more that missile defense is seen as a shared security roof – built, supported, and operated together – that protects us all, the more people from Vancouver to Vladivostok will know that they are part of one community.	去年夏天上任以来，我已为调解北约和俄罗斯关系倾注了大量时间与精力，并在多各领域取得了进展，包括共同回顾了共同面对的威胁与挑战。


Such a security roof would be a strong political symbol that Russia is fully part of the Euro-Atlantic family, sharing the costs and benefits.	然而，现在正是将导弹防御体系作为我们聚首的又一个契机的时候了。


Of course, there are practical challenges.	我们需要一个涵盖所有北约成员国以及俄罗斯的导弹防御体系。


We would have to make our systems interoperable, share intelligence assessments, and link sensitive technologies.	更多地将导弹防御体系视为共同的安全保护屏障——齐心协力建造、支持和运作——从渥太华到海参崴，人们将更真切地认识到自己是团体的一部分。


But such cooperation is a concrete way to build mutual trust and confidence.	此类安全屏障将是一个有力的政治象征，表明俄罗斯是欧洲大西洋大家庭的重要一员，与其他成员荣辱与共。


For these reasons, the time has come to move forward on missile defense.	当然，眼下还存在着诸多实际挑战。


We need a decision, by NATO’s next summit in November, that missile defense is an Alliance mission, and that we will explore every opportunity to cooperate with Russia.	我们必须确保此类体系具有互用性，分享情报评估和敏感技术。 这种合作是建立互信的有效途径。


But Russia also must decide to view missile defense as an opportunity, rather than a threat.	因此，是时候推进导弹防御体系了。


If that happens, we can move forward to create a missile-defense system that not only defends the Euro-Atlantic community, but that also brings it together.	在11月的北约下届峰会上，我们需要做出决策：导弹防御体系是盟国的共同任务，我们将尽一切努力与俄罗斯合作。


The end of the Cold War has given us an enormous opportunity to achieve our goal of a Europe whole, free, and at peace.	与此同时，俄罗斯必须将导弹防御体系视为一个契机，而不是威胁。


We are not quite there, but we are getting there.  Missile defense can be part of that positive trend.	这样一来，我们便能够推进导弹防御体系建造进程，在保护欧洲大西洋社区的同时也起到集聚人心的作用。


Read more from "NATO Wakes Up"	冷战的结束使我们得以实现共同、自由、和平的欧洲的目标。 虽然任重道远，但我们仍步步为营。


The Hydrogen Solution	氢方案


RHINECLIFF, NY – Around the world, governments and businesses are constantly being called upon to make big investments in solar, wind, and geothermal energy, as well as biofuels.	莱茵克里夫，纽约州—放眼全球，人们一直在呼吁政府和企业大量投资于太阳能、风能、地热能以及生物燃料。


But, in the United States, unlike in Europe and Asia, discussion of hydrogen energy and fuel cells as systemic, game-changing technologies is largely absent.	但是，与欧洲和亚洲不同，在美国，关于将氢能和燃料电池作为系统性的改变局面技术几乎无人谈及。


That needs to change: these clean, renewable energy sources promise not only zero-emission baseload power, but also a zero-emission fuel for cars and trucks, the biggest polluters of them all.	这需要改变：这些清洁的可再生能源不但能生产零排放基载电力，也能为汽车和卡车提供零排放燃料，而后两者乃是最大的污染源。


By now, many have heard about plans by big carmakers – including Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai – to launch hydrogen fuel-cell cars commercially around 2015.	如今，包括本田、丰田和现代在内的大型汽车商纷纷抛出了计划，将在2015年左右实现氢燃料电池汽车的商业使用。


Daimler, Ford, and Nissan plan to launch such cars around 2017.	戴姆勒、福特和日产计划在2017年左右推出氢燃料电池汽车。


Germany plans to build at least 50 hydrogen fueling stations by 2015 as the start of a countrywide network.	德国计划到2015年至少建造50座氢能加油站，作为全国网络的起点。


Japan and Korea have announced similar plans.	日本和韩国也公布了类似计划。


But a bigger, largely unreported, message is that some European countries, especially Germany, have launched projects that combine renewables like solar and wind with hydrogen for energy storage, implying clean, zero-emission, stable power grids that require no coal, oil, or nuclear power.	但更大也鲜有报道的消息是一些欧洲国家，特别是德国，已经推出了将太阳能和风能扥挂可再生能源和氢能相结合来储藏能量的计划，这意味着不需要煤、石油和核能的清洁的零排放稳定电网。


Indeed, the bottom line of a new study by two American researchers, Willett Kempton and Cory Budischak, is that the combination of renewables and hydrogen storage could fully power a large electricity grid by 2030 at costs comparable to those today.	事实上，美国两名学者——坎普顿（Willett Kempton）和巴蒂沙克（Cory Budischak）——的最新研究表明，到2030年，可再生能源和氢能相结合的储藏就能以与今天相当的成本全面承担起大型电网的供电任务。


Kempton and Budischak designed a computer model for wind, solar, and storage to meet demand for one-fifth of the US grid.	坎普顿和巴蒂沙克储藏设计了一个计算机模型，计算了满足美国五分之一电网需求的风能、太阳能和储藏。


The results buck “the conventional wisdom that renewable energy is too unreliable and expensive,” says Kempton.	结果与“可再生能源太不可靠，也太昂贵”的传统智慧相悖，坎普顿说。


“For example,” according to Budischak, “using hydrogen for storage, we can run an electric system that today would meet a need of 72 gigawatts, 99.9 % of the time, using 17 GW of solar, 68 GW of offshore wind, and 115 GW of inland wind.”	“比如，”巴蒂沙克说，“使用氢来储藏，我们可以运行一个电力系统，它足以满足72G瓦的需求，即当前需求的99. 9%，使用太阳能，17G瓦，使用离岸风能，68G瓦，使用内陆风能，115G瓦。


Their study lends scientific supportto several such projects underway in Europe aimed at proving that hydrogen gas, converted from water via electrolysis – think of it as natural gas minus the polluting carbon – and stored, for example, in subterranean salt caverns, can smooth out fluctuations inherent in solar and wind energy.	欧洲的一些在建项目旨在证明来自水电解并（比如）储藏在地下盐井中的氢气——相当于天然气除去了致污的碳元素——能够平滑太阳能和风能的内在波动性，坎普顿和巴蒂沙克的研究支持这些项目。


It builds in part on two recent studies at Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution, which conclude that, as Carnegie atmospheric scientist Ken Caldeira put it, “there is more than enough energy available in winds to power all of civilization.”	这项研究基于斯坦福大学和卡耐基研究所的两项最新研究，正如卡耐基研究所大气科学家卡德拉（Ken Caldeira）所说，这两项研究认为“风能中蕴藏着足以满足文明需求的能量。 ”


The latest effort, scheduled to get underway outside Brussels this year, is the delightfully named “Don Quichote” project (“Demonstration of New Qualitative Innovative Concept of Hydrogen Out of wind Turbine Electricity”), designed to highlight utility-scale energy storage and transport, and to provide power for fuel-cell forklift trucks.	最新的动作——据安排将于今年在布鲁塞尔城外动工——被欣欣然定名为“堂吉诃德”工程（“展示用风涡轮电力制氢气的新品质创新概念”），这项工程是为了强调公用事业规模的能量储藏和运输，并为燃料电池叉车提供动力。


The project’s partners are a Belgian grocery chain, the European Commission, and various European organizations and companies.	该工程和合作方有一家比利时杂货连锁、欧盟委员会以及众多欧洲组织和公司。


Canada’s Hydrogenics is providing the electrolyzer and a fuel cell.	加拿大的Hydrogenics公司提供电解剂和燃料电池。


Meanwhile, near Berlin, five companies launched a €10 million ($13 million) pilot project at Berlin’s main airport in Schoenefeld in December, expanding and converting an existing hydrogen fueling station to CO2 neutrality by linking it to a nearby wind farm.	与此同时，在柏林附近，去年12月五家公司在柏林主机场舍纳菲尔德（Schoenefeld）推出了1000万欧元的试点项目，通过将一家已建成氢燃料补给站和附近的风电场联系起来，实现其二氧化碳中性并扩大其规模。


Earlier last year, two German utilities, Thüga and E.ON, announced two gas demonstration plants.	去年早些时候，两家德国电力公司Thüga和E. ON推出了两家示范性电厂。


And the world’s first renewable energy/hydrogen hybrid power plant, producing both electricity and hydrogen as car fuel, started production in the fall of 2011.	世界首家可再生能源/氢气混合发电厂——既发电，也生产作汽车燃料使用的氢气——在2011年秋开始投入生产。


The previous year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel laid the plant’s cornerstone herself, sending a strong signal of her seriousness about Germany’s shift to clean, renewable energy.	前一年，德国总理默克尔亲自为这家电厂奠基，这表明她强烈支持德国向清洁可再生能源的转型。


Indeed, the much-noted Energiewende, or energy turnaround, that she announced in 2010 is arguably one of the most audacious acts of environmental statesmanship yet.	事实上，她2010年推出的广受关注的能源转向（Energiewende）可谓具有最果敢的环保主义政治家精神。


According to the author and environmentalist Bill McKibben, Germany is in the international forefront of fighting climate change: “The clear alternative and the best news from 2012 came from Germany, the one big country that’s taken climate change seriously....There were days last summer when [Germans] generated more than half the power that they used from solar panels.”	在笔者和环保人士麦吉本（Bill McKibben）看来，德国是国际气候变化冲突阵线的先锋：“2012年最明确的替代方案和最好的消息来自德国，这个大国在认真对待气候变化问题……去年夏天某些时候，（德国）使用的电力中有一大半来自太阳能。


In fact, hydrogen technology will be an integral part of Germany’s evolving renewable/alternative energy-based system.	”事实上，氢技术将成为德国不断进步的基于可再生/替代能源的系统的主要部分之一。


Germany’s move toward renewable energy is likely to have a much broader positive impact.	德国的向可再生能源转型可能具有诸多积极意义。


A six-article series, “The German Nuclear Exit,” in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist argues that the move away from nuclear energy is already “yielding measurable economic and environmental benefits.”	《原子科学家文摘》（Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist）上刊登了六篇系列文章《德国的退核》（The German Nuclear Exit），文章认为告别核能已经“产生了可观的经济和环境好处。 ”


More broadly, Lutz Mez, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University, argues that the country’s shift has “observably decoupled energy supply from economic growth,” and that the “evolving Energiewende, rather than the nuclear phase-out” implies “continuing reforms of social, economic, technological, and cultural policy in Germany.”	从更广的角度看，柏林自由大学（Free University）的政治学家梅兹（Lutz Mez）指出，德国的转向“在显而易见地让能源供应和经济增长脱钩”，而“能源转向的进展，而不是退出核能，”意味着“德国社会、经济、技术和文化政策的持续改革。 ”


What, one wonders, are lagging nations waiting for?	我们不禁要问，落后的国家还在等什么？


The Promise of Iraq’s Constitution	伊拉克宪法的前途


The constitutional process now under way in Iraq represents a hopeful milestone for all Iraqis.	宪法进程对全体伊拉克人而言都是一个充满希望的里程碑。


After decades of successively imposed constitutions, an elected assembly has overseen the process of drafting a new permanent constitution, and the draft text will be voted on by ordinary Iraqis on October 15.	历经几十年不断强加的宪法后，经选举产生的国民会议监督了一部新的永久性宪法的起草进程。 宪法草案将在10月15日交由伊拉克普通民众投票表决。


Much of the current talk about the draft’s various provisions thus misses the point.	有关不同宪法条款的议论大多数都未切中要害。


Regardless of whether the referendum succeeds or fails, and regardless of the details of the constitutional text, what is most important is the establishment of constitutional processes and institutions in Iraq, before and after the referendum.	无论全民公决成功抑或失败，也无论宪法文本的细节，最重要的是在全民公决之前和之后在伊拉克建立了宪法进程和制度。


Concerning the pre-referendum phase, the National Assembly largely succeeded in this task.	伊拉克国民会议在这一任务上大体获得成功。


Although Iraq’s interim constitution gave the Assembly exclusive control over the drafting process, the Assembly wisely reached out beyond its membership in creating a constitutional drafting committee.	尽管伊拉克过渡宪法授予国民会议独有的宪法起草控制权力，国民会议还是明智地超越其成员以外，建立了宪法起草委员会。


Iraqi leaders were well aware of the decreased participation in the election by a significant portion of Iraq’s multi-ethnic and multi-confessional mosaic, particularly the Sunni community.	伊拉克领导人清楚地知道，伊拉克多种族和多教派中重要的一部分、特别是逊尼派在大选中的参与大幅下降。


Accordingly, they sought out those who were under-represented in the Assembly, but whose sense of participation in and ownership of the process was essential, not merely to the constitutional exercise, but to binding the nation’s wounds.	因此，他们广邀在国民会议中未得充分代表的那一部分国民。 他们在宪法进程当家作主的意识不仅对于实施宪法、而且对于弥合民族伤口而言都是十分重要的。


This was no mere gesture.	这一举动不仅仅是一个姿态而已。


Reaching out was an important component of establishing the rule of law, and it also sent a message that Iraq had truly turned a corner – that no single party sought to dominate Iraq.	集思广益是建立法治的重要组成部分，而且表明伊拉克的确已经转变，那就是，没有一个单一的政党寻求统治伊拉克。


This was an important signal that those elected to the National Assembly understood that democracy does not mean merely the will of the majority.	被选举进入国民会议的成员们理解，民主并非仅仅意味着多数人的意志。 这是一个重要的信号。


Instead, all Iraqis were allowed to participate in the process, and, though consensus was not ultimately reached, that, too, was a part of the democratization process.	与此相反，全体伊拉克人民都被允许参与这一进程，而且，尽管没有达成共识，那也是民主化进程的一部分。


In the end, Iraq’s voters will decide whether this is a constitution under which they wish to be governed for the foreseeable future.	最终，伊拉克的选民将决定这是否是一部他们希望在可以预计的未来他们接受治理的宪法。


Those who chose not to participate in last January’s elections will most certainly do so now, both in the referendum and in the upcoming elections to a new Assembly in December.	那些没有参与一月份选举的人们将几乎肯定会在宪法全民公决以及十二月的新的国民会议选举中投票。


A second important feature of the drafting process was the extent to which the National Assembly complied with the requirements of Iraq’s interim constitution, the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL).	宪法起草进程的第二个重要特征是国民会议遵守伊拉克过渡宪法即过渡行政法要求的程度。


At the time of the transfer of authority in June of 2004, many pundits predicted that an elected National Assembly would ignore an interim constitution drafted by an unelected Governing Council and promulgated by an occupying authority.	2004年6月政权移交之时，众多专家预言，选举产生的国民会议将会对由非经选举产生的管理委员会起草、占领当局颁布的过渡宪法置之不理。


Yet that did not happen.	但是这种情况并没有出现。


The TAL set a rigorous schedule for the Assembly to complete an initial constitutional draft, and the Assembly essentially abided by those limits.	过渡行政法给国民会议制定了完成宪法草案的严格的时间表，而国民会议基本上遵守了时限。


The deadline extension that it passed was in keeping with both the spirit and the letter of the TAL.	它延长时限符合过渡行政法的精神和条款。


At long last, it can be said that an Iraqi legislature understood that it was constrained by constitutional principals and the rule of law.	最终可以说，伊拉克立法机关理解它受到宪法原则和法治的约束。


The test for institution building, however, will come once a constitution has been approved and a new government installed.	但是，一旦宪法得以批准，新政府组成，制度建设的考验随即来临。


Regardless of who wins the elections, there will be temptations to tinker with the constitutional text.	无论何人赢得选举，总会有修补宪法文本的诱惑。


Such temptations are understandable, and need not be animated by improper motives.	这样的诱惑可以理解，而且不必别有用心地大肆渲染。


However, given the little weight given to constitutions in Iraq’s modern history, it is likely that the political class will leave the text alone.	然而，鉴于宪法在伊拉克现代历史上无足轻重，政治阶层有可能维持其文本。


Barring some compelling need, the calculus might well arise that it is more important to abide by the constitution for some time – and to be seen to be abiding by it – than it is even to improve its provisions.	除非有迫切的需要，在一定时期内遵守宪法、并让世人看见遵守宪法要比改进其条款甚至可能更为重要。


Changes can always be proposed after a decent interval passes.	一段适当时期以后再提出修改也不迟。


It goes without saying that it will be essential to establish that governance in Iraq is institutional, not personal.	毋庸置疑，向世人表明伊拉克政权是制度性、而非个人性的十分重要。


The American administration was absolutely right to resist the call to turn Iraq over to a caudillo, as some wanted.	美国当局抵制了某些人将伊拉克移交给军事独裁者的呼吁绝对正确。


Iraq’s salvation from the nightmare that it endured over the previous 35 years lies not in any one man; indeed, reliance on “one man” was the central ingredient in Saddamist rule.	把伊拉克从过去35年所忍受的梦魇中解救出来并不取决于任何单个人； 实际上，萨达姆统治的基本要素就是依赖于“某个个人”。


Here again, Iraq’s immediate past history allows one to be optimistic.	在这一点上，伊拉克最近的历史允许人们乐观。


The Iraqi Governing Council was not dominated by any single member, and Iraq’s subsequent governments have also operated collegially.	伊拉克管理委员会并不是由任何单个成员统领，而且，伊拉克随后的政府也是集体领导，共享权力。


Giving life to constitutionally defined political institutions is far more important to the course of Iraq’s immediate future than the specific provisions that the constitution contains.	赋予由宪法规定的政治制度以生命对于伊拉克的近期未来而言远比宪法包含的具体条款重要。


That has been the missing ingredient, not only in Iraq, but also in other countries ruled by despots.	这一点就是伊拉克、也是其他由专制君主统治的国家所缺失的要素。


Constitutions frequently enshrine lofty principals, and nobly assure protection of fundamental rights.	宪法大多崇尚崇高的原则，并高调保护基本权利。


The question is whether those guarantees are given meaning on the ground.	问题是，这些保证是否名副其实。


If the immediate past is a guide, one has reason for optimism in Iraq.	如果最近事态可以为鉴，那么有理由对伊拉克持乐观态度。


The Promise of Regrexit	反悔退出的承诺


LONDON – Until the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the refugee crisis was the greatest problem Europe faced.	伦敦—在英国人民投票脱离欧盟前，难民危机是欧洲所面临的最严重的问题。


Indeed, that crisis played a critical role in bringing about the greater calamity of Brexit.	事实上，这场危机是引发更大的英国退出灾难的关键因素。


The vote for Brexit was a great shock; the morning after the vote, the disintegration of the European Union seemed practically inevitable.	英国退出投票是一次巨大的冲击； 投票次日早晨，欧盟解体似乎实际已在所难免。


Brewing crises in other EU countries, especially Italy, deepened the dark forecast for the EU’s survival.	其他欧盟国家（特别是意大利）酝酿中的危机令欧盟的生存前景雪上加霜。


But as the initial shock of the British referendum wears off, something unexpected is happening: the tragedy no longer looks like a fait accompli.	但随着英国公投第一波影响的退潮，一些意料之外的事情正在发生：这场悲剧看上去不再像是既成事实。


Many British voters have started to feel a degree of “buyer’s remorse” as the hypothetical becomes real.	随着假象中的情况成为现实，许多英国选民生出一种“买家的后悔”。


Sterling has plunged.	英镑暴跌。


Another Scottish referendum has become highly likely.	苏格兰再次举行公投可能性大增。


The erstwhile leaders of the “Leave” campaign have engaged in a peculiar bout of internecine self-destruction, and some of their followers have started to glimpse the bleak future that both the country and they personally face.	昔日“脱欧”阵营领导人陷入了奇怪的自我毁灭的内讧，他们的一些追随者也开始领悟国家和他们个人所面临的悲惨的未来。


A sign of the shift in public opinion has been a campaign, supported by more than four million people so far, to petition Parliament to hold a second referendum.	公共观点转变、请愿议会举行第二次公投的签名已经成为一场运动，到目前为止获得四百万多人的支持。


Just as Brexit was a negative surprise, the spontaneous response to it is a positive one.	正如英国退出是一次负面意外，对英国退出的自发反应则是一次正面意外。


People on both sides of the cause – most important, those who didn’t even vote (particularly young people under 35) – have become mobilized.	对立双方——最重要的则是根本没有参与投票的人（特别是35岁以下的年轻人）——都被动员起来。


This is the kind of grassroots involvement that the EU has never been able to generate.	如此大量的草根参与是欧盟从未能够实现过的。


The post-referendum turmoil has highlighted for people in Britain just what they stand to lose by leaving the EU.	公投后的乱象向英国人民突出地显示了脱离欧盟将失去什么。


If this sentiment spreads to the rest of Europe, what seemed like the inevitable disintegration of the EU could be instead creating positive momentum for a stronger and better Europe.	如果这一情绪蔓延到欧洲其他国家，看似势在必行的欧盟解体可能转而成为创造更强大和更美好的欧洲的积极动力。


The process could start in Britain.	这一过程可能从英国开始。


The popular vote can’t be reversed but a signature collecting campaign could transform the political landscape by revealing a newfound enthusiasm for EU membership.	群众投票的结果不可逆转，但征集签名运动可能通过发现新的加入欧盟热诚而改变政治局面。


This approach could then be replicated in the rest of the European Union, creating a movement to save the EU by profoundly restructuring it.	这一方针随后可以被欧盟其他国家复制，创造出一场通过从根本上改变欧盟来拯救欧盟的运动。


I am convinced that as the consequences of Brexit unfold in the months ahead, more and more people will be eager to join this movement.	我相信，随着英国退出的后果在未来���个月逐渐显现，越来越多的人会渴望加入这场运动。


What the EU must not do is penalize British voters while ignoring their legitimate concerns about the deficiencies of the Union.	欧盟绝对不能惩罚英国选民又忽视他们对欧盟缺陷的合理担忧。


European leaders should recognize their own mistakes and acknowledge the democratic deficit in the current institutional arrangements.	欧洲领导人应该认识到自身的错误，并承认当前制度安排的民主赤字。


Rather than treating Brexit as the negotiation of a divorce, they should seize the opportunity to reinvent the EU – making it the kind of club that the UK and others at risk of exit want to join.	他们不应该把英国退出当成离婚谈判，而应该抓住这一机会彻底改造欧盟——让它成为英国和其他存在退出风险的国家渴望加入的俱乐部。


If disaffected voters in France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Poland and everywhere else see the EU benefitting their lives, the EU will emerge stronger.	如果心怀不满的法国、德国、瑞典、意大利、波兰和其他欧盟各国的选民看到欧盟改善了他们的生活，那么欧盟将变得更加强大。


If not, it will fall apart faster than leaders and citizens currently realize.	否则，欧盟将比领导人和公民目前所认识到的更快的速度解体。


The next trouble spot is Italy, which is facing a banking crisis and a referendum in October.	下一个麻烦点是意大利。 意大利正面临银行危机和10月的公投。


Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is caught in a “Catch-22” situation: if he cannot resolve the banking crisis in time, he will lose the referendum.	意大利总理伦齐陷入了“第二十二条军规”的局面：如果他无法及时解决银行危机，就会输掉公投。


That could bring to power the Five Star Movement, a partner of the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party in the European Parliament.	这将导致英国国会中支持脱欧的英国独立党的兄弟党派五星运动（Five Star Movement）上台掌权。


To find a solution, Renzi needs the assistance of the European authorities, but they are too slow and inflexible.	要想找到解决方案，伦齐需要欧洲当局的帮助，但欧洲当局行动太慢，也不够灵活。


Europe’s leaders must recognize that the EU is on the verge of collapse.	欧洲领导人必须认识到，欧盟已处于崩溃边缘。


Instead of blaming one another, they should pull together and adopt exceptional measures.	他们不应该相互指责，而应该齐心协力采取非常措施。


First, a clear distinction must be drawn between membership of the EU and of the eurozone.	首先，必须明确区分欧盟成员和欧元区成员。


Those fortunate countries that are not members of the eurozone should not face discrimination.	没有加入欧元区的幸运国家不应该面临歧视。


If the eurozone wants to be more closely integrated, as it should be, it needs to have its own treasury and budget, to serve as a fiscal authority alongside its monetary authority, the European Central Bank.	如果欧元区希望进一步一体化（理应如此），就需要拥有自己的财政部和预算，除了有其货币部门欧洲央行，也应该充当财政部门。


Second, the EU should put its excellent and largely untapped credit to use.	其次，欧盟应该把它的优质的、几乎无限量的信用用起来。


Leaders would be acting irresponsibly if they failed to employ the EU’s borrowing capacity when its very existence is at stake.	在欧盟生死存亡的关头，如果其领导人不能利用其借贷能力，将是不负责任的。


Third, the EU must strengthen its defenses to protect itself from its external enemies, who are liable to take advantage of its current weakness.	第三，欧盟必须 加强防务抵御外敌——这些敌人可能利用欧盟当前的弱势。


The EU’s greatest asset is Ukraine, whose citizens are willing to die in defense of their country.	欧盟最大的资产是乌克兰，乌克兰人民请愿为保卫国家献出生命。


By defending themselves, they are also defending the EU – rare in Europe nowadays.	在保卫自己的同时，他们也在保卫欧盟——这在当今欧洲是非常罕见的。


Ukraine is fortunate to have a new government that is more determined and more likely to deliver the reforms for which both its citizens and its outside supporters have been clamoring.	乌克兰幸运地拥有一个新政府，这个新政府更有决心也更加可能实施乌克兰公民和乌克兰外部支持者一直在大声要求的改革。


But the EU and its member states are not providing the support that Ukraine deserves (the US is much more supportive).	但欧盟及其成员国并没有给予乌克兰应有的支持（美国的支持要“给力”得多）。


Fourth, the EU’s plans for dealing with the refugee crisis need to be thoroughly revised.	第四，欧盟处理难民危机的计划需要彻底重订。


They are riddled with misconceptions and inconsistencies that render them ineffective.	这些计划充满了错误概念和矛盾之处，导致它们无法见效。


They are woefully underfunded.	它们的资金严重不足。


And they use coercive measures that generate resistance.	它们采用了导致抵制的武力手段。


I have proposed a detailed remedy for these problems elsewhere.	我在其他文章中提出过一个解决这些问题的详细方案。


If the EU makes progress along these lines, it will become an organization to which people will want to belong.	如果欧盟在这几条线上取得进步，就会成为一个人人希望身在其中的组织。


At that point, treaty change – and further integration – will once again become possible.	到时候，改变条约——以及进一步一体化——将再次成为可能。


If Europe’s leaders fail to act, those who want to save the EU in order to reinvent it should follow the lead of the young activists in Britain.	如果欧洲领导人不行动起来，希望拯救欧盟从而彻底改造它的就应该跟随英国年轻活跃分子的领导。


Now more than ever, the EU’s defenders must find ways to make their influence felt.	欧盟捍卫者比以往任何时候都更加必须找到让人们感到他们的影响力的方法。


The Prophet and the Commissars	先知和人民委员


MOSCOW – Prophets, it is said, are supposed to be without honor in their homeland.	莫斯科amp#45;amp#45;先知在他们的故国是没有荣誉的。 但是莫斯科刚刚见证了索尔仁尼琴死后不同寻常的待遇。


Yet Moscow has just witnessed the extraordinary sight of Alexander Solzhenitsyn – the dissident and once-exiled author of the Gulag Archipelago and One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich – receiving what amounts to a state funeral, with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin acting as chief mourner.	索尔仁尼琴曾经是一名异议人士，著作包括amplt;amplt;古拉格群岛ampgt;ampgt;以及amplt;amplt;伊凡杰尼索维奇的一天ampgt;ampgt;。 他获得了近乎国葬的待遇，普京总理在葬礼上担任主持。


So, even in death, Alexander Solzhenitsyn will, it seems, remain a force to be reckoned with.	因此，即使在身后，索尔仁尼琴好像也是一个需要人们加以思虑的人物。


But will he be a force in keeping with the liberating vistas of his greatest works?	但是他是否就与其巨著中自由化观点保持一致呢？


Sadly, art in Russia is always used to reinforce the narcissism of power.	不幸的是，俄国的艺术总是被用来加强强权的自恋。


Solzhenitsyn was used in this way twice.	索尔仁尼琴被这样利用了两次。


The paradox is that, in the Soviet era, his art was used, briefly, as a force for liberation, because Nikita Khrushchev allowed the publication of One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich in order to buttress his anti-Stalin thaw.	自相矛盾的地方是，在苏联时代，他的艺术一度被用作解放的力量，因为赫鲁晓夫允许出版amplt;amplt;伊凡杰尼索维奇的一天ampgt;ampgt;一书，目的在于巩固其反斯大林的政治解冻。


In today’s supposedly free and democratic Russia, however, Solzhenitsyn is idealized for his nationalism and Orthodox messianism, his contempt for the West’s supposed decadence, all messages that Putin’s regime proclaims loudly and daily.	但是，在如今本应当是自由和民主的俄国，索尔仁尼琴由于其民族主义和东正教救主即将降临之信仰及其对西方所谓颓废的轻视而被捧上了天。 而所有这些论调都是普京当局每天大肆渲染的。


The old Soviet iconography has broken down completely; despite heroic efforts, not even Putin could restore Lenin, Stalin, and the old Soviet pantheon.	老苏联已经彻底瓦解； 纵然勇猛努力，即便普京人等也无力恢复列宁、斯大林以及老苏联众神。


Yet the Kremlin understands that something is needed to replace them as Russia adapts to its new oil-fueled autocracy.	但是克里姆林宫知道，当俄国转向其新的、靠石油出口驱动的独裁政治的时候需要有些东西来取代他们。


Solzhenitsyn, one of the most famous and heroic dissidents of the Soviet era, now seems certain to become a towering figure in the iconography of Putinism.	作为苏联时代最为着名和勇敢的异议人士之一，索尔仁尼琴现在好像肯定成为普京主义举足轻重的人物。


Throughout his presidency, Putin repeatedly invoked Russia as an ancient, powerful, and divinely ordained state going back a thousand years, a civilization separate from the West, neither Communist nor a western liberal democracy.	普京在其整个总统任期内不断把俄国引述为一个古老、强大以及神灵保佑的国家，其历史有一千年，其文明有别于西方，既非共产主义亦非西方自由民主国家。 这一论点回应了索氏1978年在哈佛大学毕业典礼上著名的演讲。


That message echoes Solzhenitsyn’s famous commencement address at Harvard in 1978: “Any ancient deeply rooted autonomous culture, especially if it is spread on a wide part of the earth’s surface, constitutes an autonomous world, full of riddles and surprises to Western thinking.	他说：“任何根基深厚的古老、独立的文化都构成一个独立自治的世界，特别是当它跨越地球表面的大片土地的时候。 这种文化对于西方思维而言充满了谜团和惊奇。


For 1,000 years, Russia has belonged to such a category.ampquot;	一千年以来，俄国一直就属于这一类型”。


For Solzhenitsyn, a survivor of the gulag system enforced by the KGB, the desire to see Russia as a great nation, its eternal spirit superior to the West’s vulgar materialism, found him in old age supporting ex-KGB man Putin, who once said that there is no such thing as an ex-KGB man and who sees the Soviet Union’s collapse as the greatest geo-political catastrophe of modern times.	索尔仁尼琴是由克格勃实行的古拉格制度的幸存者，对于他来说，盼望俄国成为伟大国家，其外在精神高于西方粗俗的唯利是图。 他老来支持前克格勃特工普京，而普京曾言根本就没有什么前克格勃特工以及苏联的解体是现代最大的地缘政治灾难。


Despite this, Solzhenitsyn seemed to accept Putin as a “good dictator,” whose silencing of his critics enhances Russia’s soul.	尽管如此，索尔仁尼琴好像把普京接受成为一个“开明独裁者”，其压抑批评者的声音增进俄国的灵魂。


It is a sad testament to Russia’s current mindset that it is Solzhenitsyn the anti-modernist crank who is being remembered, not Solzhenitsyn the towering foe of Soviet barbarism and mendacity.	索尔仁尼琴并不是作为苏联野蛮主义和虚伪的巨人、而是以反现代的怪杰被人纪念，这对于俄国当今的心态无异是悲凉的。


Today, his writing is seen as buttressing the state, not individual freedom.	如今，他的作品被视为巩固国家统治，而非个人自由。


Works such as The Red Wheel series of novels, a tedious account of the end of Imperial Russia and the creation of the USSR, or his last book, written in 2001, entitled Two Hundred Years Together on the history of Russian-Jewish coexistence, seem backward, preachy, conservative, unenlightened, at times even anti-Semitic, and smack of Solzhenitsyn’s own grim authoritarianism.	像amplt;amplt;红轮子ampgt;ampgt;等系列小说作品都是在乏味地描述俄国帝国的终结以及苏联的建立。 写于2001年的最后一部著作题为amplt;amplt;相聚两百年ampgt;ampgt;描写俄国人和犹太人共处的历史，读起来落后时代，充满说教、保守、没有开化，有点反犹主义，还有点索公自身残忍的独裁主义味道。


Both Putin and Khrushchev sought to use Solzhenitsyn for their own purposes.	普京和赫鲁晓夫都出于自身的目的而利用索尔仁尼琴。


Putin vowed to revive the moral fiber of the Russians, their glory and international respect.	普京发誓要恢复俄国人的道德基础、其荣耀以及国际尊重。


To achieve this goal he sought to restore high culture to a position of primacy in Russian life, and to put mass media in its (politically) subservient place.	为了实现这一目标，普京试图恢复高雅文化在俄国生活中至高无上的地位，并且将大众媒体置于政治上附和的地位。


Putin held up Solzhenitsyn as a model for those who stand for the ideal of Great Russia – “an example of genuine devotion and selfless serving of the people, fatherland, and the ideals of freedom, justice, and humanism.”	普京把索尔仁尼琴奉为坚持大俄罗斯理想的楷模。 普京说他是“为人民、祖国以及自由、正义和人道主义理想真心奉献��无私服务的榜样”。


Under Khrushchev, however, Solzhenitsyn’s work was used to liberate the country from the grip of Stalinism.	但是在赫鲁晓夫时代，索尔仁尼琴德作品被用来把苏联从斯大林主义的铁腕中解救出来。


In choosing to allow One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich to be published, Khrushchev knew that he was undermining the entire Soviet era up to that point.	赫鲁晓夫钦定出版amplt;amplt;伊凡杰尼索维奇的一天ampgt;ampgt;一书，因为他知道他在摧垮直到那一时代的整个苏联时代。


But, with Khrushchev’s overthrow in 1964, Leonid Brezhnev lost no time in restoring orthodoxy and purging books that threatened the Party’s reputation.	但是，随着赫鲁晓夫在1964年被推翻，伯列日涅夫马上就恢复正统，清洗那些威胁共产党名声的书籍。


Solzhenitsyn was banned, driven first underground and then into exile.	索尔仁尼琴遭禁，开始被赶入地下，随后又遭到流放。


Yet Khrushchev, isolated and in disgrace, continued to see a bond between himself and the great author.	但是赫鲁晓夫在隔离和遭受不誉的时候依旧认为他和索尔仁尼琴之间有着联系。


As Solzhenitsyn wrote in his memoir The Oak and the Calf : “as late as 1966, he [Khrushchev] sent me New Year’s greetings—which astonished me because I was on the brink of arrest.	索尔仁尼琴在他的回忆录amplt;amplt;橡树和小牛ampgt;ampgt;中记述道：“直到1966年，他 [赫鲁晓夫] 还给我寄贺年卡。 这让我好不惊讶，因为我处于被捕的边缘。


Perhaps (in his disgrace) he did not know.”	也许他(下台) 不知此事”。


One lesson of the 1989 revolution in Eastern Europe is the value of having truly democratic-minded figures lead the escape from communism.	1989年东欧革命的教训之一就是让真心民主的人物来领导人民摆脱共产主义具有重要的价值。


Poland had Lech Walesa; Czechoslovakia Václav Havel.	波兰有瓦文萨，捷克斯洛伐克有哈维尔。


Both kept their countries calm during wrenching transitions.	两人都在痛苦的转型中保持了各自国家的稳定。


Russia, sadly, had no one with the moral authority to soothe people’s passions.	不幸的是，俄国无人具备道义力量来缓和人民的激情。


Only Solzhenitsyn and Andrei Sakharov came near to Walesa and Havel in terms of moral authority, but Sakharov was dead by the time communism collapsed, and Solzhenitsyn’s ideas were too conservative, too tied to Russian nationalism, for him to become a symbol of democracy in a multi-national Soviet Union.	只有索尔仁尼琴和萨哈罗夫在道义力量上靠近瓦文萨和哈维尔。 但是萨哈罗夫在共产主义解体的时候已经去世，而索尔仁尼琴德观点又过于保守，与俄罗斯民族主义联系过份密切，以至无法在多国家的苏联中担当民主的象征。


The tragedy of Solzhenitsyn is that, although he played a mighty role in liberating Russia from totalitarianism, he had nothing to say to ordinary Russians after their liberation, except to chastise them.	索尔仁尼琴的悲剧在于，尽管他在把俄国从独裁统治中解放出来的过程中发挥了巨大作用，但是在俄国民众获得解放以后，除了责难他们，他就江郎才尽了。


Yet perhaps one day we Russians will escape our false dreams, and when that day comes, the heroic Solzhenitsyn, the Solzhenitsyn who could never surrender or be corrupted, will be restored to us.	但是也许有一天我们俄国人民将会从我们虚假的梦想中解脱出来。 那一天到来的时候，英勇的索尔仁尼琴，那个永不投降、永不遭到腐化的索尔仁尼琴将会恢复给我们。


But it is now that we need that Solzhenitsyn most.	但是我们现在最为需要这一索尔仁尼琴。


For to paraphrase Milton’s Paradise Lost on the illumination of Hell, “Solzhenitsyn’s is no light, but rather darkness visible.”	用弥尔顿失乐园描写地狱的诗句来说就是：“索尔仁尼琴并非光明，而是看得见的黑暗”。


What Use Are Economists?	经济学家有什么用？


CAMBRIDGE – When the stakes are high, it is no surprise that battling political opponents use whatever support they can garner from economists and other researchers.	坎布里奇——当赌注很高时，政治对手利用从经济学家和其他研究人员那里得来的一切证据并没有什么希奇。


That is what happened when conservative American politicians and European Union officials latched on to the work of two Harvard professors – Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff – to justify their support of fiscal austerity.	美国保守派政客和欧盟官员利用卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯•罗格夫等两位哈佛教授的研究来佐证财政紧缩政策恰恰是这样的实例。


Reinhart and Rogoff published a paper that appeared to show that public-debt levels above 90% of GDP significantly impede economic growth.	莱因哈特和罗格夫发表的论文似乎表明公共债务在GDP占比超过90%会显著拖累经济增长水平。


Three economists from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst then did what academics are routinely supposed to do – replicate their colleagues’ work and subject it to criticism.	阿莫斯特市马萨诸塞大学的三名经济学家随后完成了学者应该完成的工作——他们重新审核了同事的研究工作，并对其进行了批评。


Along with a relatively minor spreadsheet error, they identified some methodological choices in the original Reinhart/Rogoff work that threw the robustness of their results into question.	除一处相对次要的电子表格错误外，他们发现莱因哈特/罗格夫研究所采用的某些方法使人对结果的可靠性产生了怀疑。


Most important, even though debt levels and growth remained negatively correlated, the evidence for a 90% threshold was revealed to be quite weak.	最重要的是尽管债务水平和经济增长呈负相关关系，但90%临界值的设定却缺乏事实依据的支撑。


And, as many have argued, the correlation itself could be the result of low growth leading to high indebtedness, rather than the other way around.	而且就像很多人指出的那样，这种关系可能是由低增长引发高负债、而不是反向过程所导致的。


Reinhart and Rogoff have strongly contested accusations by many commentators that they were willing, if not willful, participants in a game of political deception.	莱因哈特和罗格夫对众多批评家指其自愿参与政治欺骗游戏的质疑做出了强烈的回应。


They have defended their empirical methods and insist that they are not the deficit hawks that their critics portray them to be.	他们为自己使用的经验主义方法辩解，并坚持认为他们不属于批评者所描述的赤字鹰派阵营。


The resulting firestorm has clouded a salutary process of scrutiny and refinement of economic research.	由此引来的轩然大波彻底掩盖了审视并改进经济研究的有益过程。


Reinhart and Rogoff quickly acknowledged the Excel mistake they had made.	莱因哈特和罗格夫很快承认了自己的Excel错误。


The dueling analyses clarified the nature of the data, their limitations, and the difference that alternative methods of processing them made to the results.	竞争性分析澄清了数据性质、相关局限性和其他处理方式给结果造成的不同。


Ultimately, Reinhart and Rogoff were not that far apart from their critics on either what the evidence showed or what the policy implications were.	最终在证据表象和政策内涵方面，莱因哈特和罗格夫的观点与批评者并没有多大差别。