“As the world enters the modern era, most countries under internal and external pressure need to reconstruct themselves by substituting the mode of governance rooted in agrarian experience with a new set of rules based on commerce.…This is easier said than done.	 “随着世界进入现代时期，大多数承受着内部和外部压力的国家都必须对自身进行重建，用基于商业的一套法则来取代原���构建于农业经验之上的管治模式……但这是件知易行难的事。


The renewal process could affect the top and bottom layers, and inevitably it is necessary to recondition the institutional links between them.	整个更新过程将影响到上下两个阶层，并不可避免地需要重新修复两者之间的体制联系。


Comprehensive destruction is often the order; and it may take decades to bring the work to completion.”	全面破坏将成为常态； 而且往往需要数十年来完成这项工作。


Using this macro-historical framework, we can see Japanese deflation, European debt, and even the Arab Spring as phases of systemic changes within complex structures that are interacting with one another in a new, multipolar global system.	利用微历史的框架，我们可以看到一个新的，多极化全球体系之中存在着许多不断产生互动的复杂结构，而日本通胀，欧洲债务甚至阿拉伯之春则可被视为这些结构内部某一阶段的系统性变革。


We are witnessing simultaneous global convergence (the narrowing of income, wealth, and knowledge gaps between countries) and local divergence (widening income, wealth, and knowledge gaps within countries).	我们正见证着各种同时进行中的全球收敛现象（各国之间收入，财富和知识差距的不断收窄）以及本地分化现象（各国内部收入，财富和知识差距的不断加大）。


Adaptive systems struggle with order and creativity as they evolve.	适应性系统在演化的过程中会不断在秩序和创新性之间左右摇摆。


As the philosopher Bertrand Russell presciently put it: “Security and justice require centralized governmental control, which must extend to the creation of a world government if it is to be effective.	正如英国哲学家伯特兰·罗素（Bertrand Russell）所预见的那样：“安全与正义要求集权化的政府控制，而这个系统如果要达到有效的话就势必要扩张成为一个全球政府。


Progress, on the contrary, requires the utmost scope for personal initiative that is compatible with social order.”	相反，进步则要求实现一个与社会秩序相容的，最大范围的个人主动性。 ”


A new wave of what the economist Joseph Schumpeter famously called “creative destruction” is under way: even as central banks struggle to maintain stability by flooding markets with liquidity, credit to business and households is shrinking.	一个被经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼得（Joseph Schumpeter）称之为“创造性破坏”的新浪潮已经涌现：即便中央银行奋力通过向市场注入大量流动性来保持稳定，对企业和家庭的信贷依然不断紧缩。 我们生活在一个对通胀和通缩的两大恐惧同时并存的时代；


We live in an age of simultaneous fear of inflation and deflation; of unprecedented prosperity amid growing inequality; and of technological advancement and resource depletion.	既有前所未有的繁荣，又有不断扩大的不平等； 一方面科技进步，另一方面则存在资源枯竭。


Meanwhile, existing political systems promise good jobs, sound governance, a sustainable environment, and social harmony without sacrifice – a paradise of self-interested free riders that can be sustained only by sacrificing the natural environment and the welfare of future generations.	与此同时，现有的政治系统既不愿意做出牺牲，却又承诺会提供好工作，优秀管治，可持续环境和社会和谐——这是一个自私自利的搭便车者梦想的天堂，但代价则是牺牲了自然环境以及子孙后代的福祉。


We cannot postpone the pain of adjustment forever by printing money.	我们不能通过印钞的方式永远推迟承担适应变革所带来的阵痛。


Sustainability can be achieved only when the haves become willing to sacrifice for the have-nots.	只有当既得利益者愿意为非既得利益者做出牺牲的时候，可持续性才可能实现。


The Washington Consensus of free-market reforms for developing countries ended more than two decades ago.	针对发展中国国家自由市场改革的华盛顿共识已经在20年前达成。


The INET conference in Berlin showed the need for a new one – a consensus that supports sacrifice in the interest of unity.	而柏林新经济思维研究中心会议则显示我们需要一个新的共识——为了团结统一而做出牺牲。


Europe could use it.	欧洲当采用之。


Accepting Japan at Its Word	接受日本的用词


TOKYO – In recent years, the number of tourists visiting Japan has been increasing rapidly, reaching a record 13.4 million last year, a 29% increase from 2013.	东京—近几年来，访日游客数量迅速增长，去年创出1,340万人次新高，比2013年增加29%。


Japan seems to be making great strides toward its goal of recapturing the position as an Asian cultural center that it held a century ago, when the Indian Nobel laureate poet Rabindranath Tagore lived in Tokyo.	日本似乎正在大踏步向重新成为亚洲文化中心的目标迈进。 一百年前，也就是印度诺贝尔奖诗人泰戈尔生活在东京的时候，日本曾经是亚洲文化中心。


Chinese revolutionary leaders Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek, along with many other prominent Asians, moved there as well.	中国革命领袖孙中山和蒋介石以及其他诸多亚洲名人也纷纷来到日本。


Anyone visiting Japan today would do well to learn two key words: domo, meaning “hello,” “thanks,” or “well,” and sumimasen, which can carry any of the meanings of domo, as well as “sorry” or “excuse me.”	如今，所有来日旅客都会学会两个关键词：“多末”，意思是“你好”、“谢谢”或“很好”； 以及“斯米马赛”，它包括了domo的全部含义，还可以表达“对不起”和“劳驾”。


Ordinary Japanese say sumimasen countless times each day, to apologize to friends or strangers for even the most trivial accident or mistake.	普通日本人每天都要说无数次“斯米马赛”，有一点点事情或犯一点点错误就用这个词向朋友或陌生人致歉。


But, as Japan’s leaders have experienced firsthand since World War II, expressing regret to other countries is not so simple.	但是，自二战以来，日本领导人真切地感受到，向其他国家表达悔恨之情并不那么简单。


Yet that is precisely what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must do in his upcoming statement marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the war.	但这正是首相安倍晋三在即将到来的二战结束70周年纪念讲话中所要做的。


The statement will be based on consultations with many of Japan’s, and the world’s, leading WWII historians, as well as – and more important – with himself, his conscience, and his heart, because he understands the significance of his words on this highly fraught topic.	该讲话将以诸多日本乃至全球著名二战史家的意见为基础，但更重要的是安倍本人、他的良知和他的用心，因为他明白，在这个高度敏感的话题上，他的用语意义重大。


Of course, Abe is far from the first Japanese leader to confront this challenge.	当然，安倍绝非首位面临如此挑战的日本领导人。


His statement will follow a long line of declarations by prime ministers and chief cabinet secretaries expressing sincere remorse over the events of WWII.	在他以前，无数首相和内阁官方长官都对二战中所发生的事件表达了诚挚的忏悔。


Twenty years ago, Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, the head of the Socialist Party, acknowledged that “Japan, through its colonial rule and aggression, caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries,” particularly in Asia.	二十年前，时任首相、社会党党首村山富市承认“日本的殖民统治和侵略给许多国家的人民造成了严重伤害和苦难，”特别是亚洲国家。


He went on to express “feelings of deep remorse” and offer a “heartfelt apology” to the victims.	他接着表示“感到深深的忏悔”，向受害者致以“衷心的歉意”。


Ten years later, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reiterated Murayama’s words, adding that since the war, Japan had been “manifesting its remorse for the war through actions,” especially development assistance and humanitarian activities.	十年后，小泉纯一郎首相重申了村山的歉词，并说二战结束以来日本一直在“用行动表达对战争的忏悔，”特别是发展援助和人道主义行动。


Koizumi also pledged that “Japan, as a peace-loving nation, will work to achieve peace and prosperity for all humankind with all its resources.”	小泉还承诺“日本是热爱和平的国家，将尽其所能致力于实现全人类的和平与繁荣。 ”


Despite these straightforward declarations of regret, some governments and citizens continue to demand more, giving the impression that nothing a Japanese leader says or does will convince them of the country’s remorse.	尽管日本做出了这些直白的忏悔，但一些政府和人民仍不满足，给人们一种日本领导人的所作所为并没有让他们感到日本的悔意的印象。


This intractability is, in some cases, understandable; the pain of survivors and their descendants remains acute.	从某种程度上，这个棘手问题不难理解； 幸存者及其后代的痛苦依然剧烈。


But in many other cases, the unwillingness to move beyond history is driven by political interests.	但在某些情形中，不愿抛弃历史恩怨是因为政治利益。


Indeed, political motivations are behind claims that Abe does not agree with past official apologies, despite his repeated assurances that he does, as well as suggestions that he is seeking to revise history, even though he has never denied Japan’s colonial aggression.	事实上，声称安倍不同意此前的官方道歉（尽管他一再保证他同意此前的道歉），其背后便是政治动机； 同样，认为安倍试图推翻历史（尽管他从未否认日本的殖民侵略），其背后也是政治动机。


Moreover, some have produced portrayals of Japan, as a whole, as an unrepentant country – or, worse, as one that is hell-bent on remilitarization.	此外，一些人将日本的整体形象刻画为一个冥顽不灵的国家——更有甚者，说日本铁了心要重走军国主义老路。


Such depictions are breathtaking in their audacity, given Japan’s seven-decade record as a peaceful and constructive member of the international community.	这样的描述不可不谓厚颜无耻，因为七十年来日本一直是国际社会和平而具有建设性的成员。


This is not lost on those in Japan who ask for how long their country will have to apologize, with some even suggesting that after 70 years, a “tweet” on the subject should amount to adequate acknowledgement by Abe.	对于一些质问祖国究竟需要道歉多长时间的日本人来说，这一点很重要，有人甚至认为，70年后，关于该主题的一条“推特”应该足以让安倍认识到这一点。


The prime minister, however, remains committed to issuing a strong and sincere statement on the subject.	但是，首相仍决定就该主题发表强烈而诚挚的讲话。


Early this year, Abe announced his intention to use the 70th anniversary statement to communicate Japan’s remorse for the war, describe the progress the country has made in upholding peace, and describe the contributions that Japan can make to Asia and the rest of the world in the coming decades.	今年年初，安倍宣布他将在70周年讲话中表达日本对战争的忏悔，描述日本在支持和平方面所取得的进步，并表达日本可以在未来几十年对亚洲和世界其他地区的和平所做的贡献。


In fact, it is the third component of the announcement that inspires fear in some observers: By helping to build a strong security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan could undermine the ability of some actors to advance their own interests.	事实上，第三部分引起了一些观察者的担忧：通过帮助亚太地区构建强大的安全结构，日本可能破坏某些行动方主张自身利益的能力。


That is why they launched a whisper campaign against Abe’s statement months before he even began to write it.	因此，它们用谣言攻击安倍的讲话，哪怕距离讲话时间还有几个月之久、演讲词都没有开始撰写。


But, of course, Asian security and prosperity is in everyone’s interest.	但是，亚洲的安全与繁荣当然事关所有人的利益。


Given this, not even the language of Abe’s statement is particularly important; what matters is the determination he expresses, and the actions he takes to follow through – with appropriate humility – on his pledges.	因此，即便安倍讲话的用词并非十分重要，重要的是他所表达的决心，以及他（以合适的谦逊态度）拿出怎样的行动。


And it seems that Abe is, indeed, determined to make real contributions to peace, based on effective cooperation with Japan’s friends and allies.	事实上，安倍似乎决心要在与日本友邦和盟国进行有效合作的基础上为和平做出真正的贡献。


But if Asia is to move beyond its past, the victims of Japan’s wartime aggression must recognize that the Japan of 2015 is not the Japan of 1931, 1941, or even 1945, and that, as many Asian leaders have realized over the years, forgiveness benefits everyone.	但如果亚洲要超越历史恩怨，日本战时侵略的受害者就必须承认2015年的日本不是1931、1941乃至1945年的日本，并且，如许多亚洲领导人在过去几年中所认识到的，原谅可以给所有人带来好处。


In 1998, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung responded positively to a statement by former Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.	1998年，韩国总统金大中对前日本首相小渊惠三的讲话予以积极回应。


The governments of Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries have done the same, and now welcome Japan’s commitment to act with its allies to protect regional security.	印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南和其他国家也是如此，现在它们都欢迎日本与盟国携手保护地区安全的承诺。


These countries’ openness to reconciliation have enabled Japan to recast itself as a key arbiter of regional peace and prosperity, not to mention an increasingly dynamic cultural hub.	这些国家对和解的开放态度让日本重新铸造其地区和平与繁荣重要仲裁者的形象，更不用说活力日盛的文化枢纽了。


It is time for the rest of the region to follow suit, accepting at face value Japan’s sincere apologies and working with the country to build a better future.	该地区其他国家也应该效而仿之，按字面意思接受日本诚挚的道歉，与日本共同建设更美好的未来。


At a time when Asia is facing serious security challenges, this stance could not be more urgent.	在亚洲面临严重安全挑战的当下，这一立场无比紧要。


A Big Chance for Small Farmers	小农迎来大机遇


NEW YORK – The G-8’s $20 billion initiative on smallholder agriculture, launched at the group’s recent summit in L’Aquila, Italy, is a potentially historic breakthrough in the fight against hunger and extreme poverty.	纽约——八国集团不久前在意大利拉奎拉峰会上启动的200亿美元小农援助计划或许是战胜饥饿和极端贫困的一次历史性的突破。


With serious management of the new funds, food production in Africa will soar.	如果这笔新资金能得到认真的管理，非洲的粮食生产将会大幅度增加。


Indeed, the new initiative, combined with others in health, education, and infrastructure, could be the greatest step so far toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals, the internationally agreed effort to reduce extreme poverty, disease, and hunger by half by 2015 .	实际上，这项新计划和其他医疗、教育、基础设施计划一起，有可能成为迄今为止实现千年发展目标的最有效举措，千年发展目标国际协议规定到2015年将极端贫困、疾病和饥饿人口减少到原来的半数。


During 2002-2006, I led the United Nations Millennium Project, which aimed to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, for then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.	2002至2006年，我为实现千年发展目标，在时任联合国秘书长科菲·安南管理下领导联合国千年发展项目。


One cornerstone of the project was “smallholder farmers,” meaning peasant farm families in Africa, Latin America, and Asia – working farms of around one hectare (2.5 acres) or less.	“小农”是这个项目的基础，“小农”一词是非洲、拉美和亚洲耕种土地不超过1公顷（合2. 5英亩）的农民家庭的代名词。


These are some of the poorest households in the world, and, ironically, some of the hungriest as well, despite being food producers.	颇具讽刺意味的是，尽管自身也生产粮食，但他们却隶属于世界最贫困、最饥饿家庭的行列。


They are hungry because they lack the ability to buy high-yield seeds, fertilizer, irrigation equipment, and other tools needed to increase productivity.	他们饥饿，是因为无力购买提高产量所需的高产种子、化肥、灌溉设备和其他工具。


As a result, their output is meager and insufficient for their subsistence.	这导致农作物产量匮乏，根本不够维持生计。


Their poverty causes low farm productivity, and low farm productivity reinforces their poverty.	他们的贫困造成农业生产率低下，而农业生产率低下又反过来加剧了贫困。


It’s a vicious circle, technically known as a poverty trap.	这形成了恶性循环，技术上被称为贫困陷阱。


The UN Millennium Project’s Hunger Task Force, led by two world-leading scientists, M. S. Swaminathan and Pedro Sanchez, examined how to break this vicious circle.	在两位世界著名科学家斯瓦米纳坦和佩德罗·桑切斯的领导下，联合国千年发展项目反饥饿工作组研究这种恶性循环应该如何打破。 工作组的结论是，如果以农业投入的方式向小农提供帮助，可能会大幅增加非洲粮食产量。


The Hunger Task Force determined that Africa could substantially increase its food production if help was given to smallholder farmers, in the form of agricultural inputs.  The Millennium Project recommended a big increase in global funding for this purpose.  Drawing on that work and related scientific findings, Annan launched a call in 2004 for an African Green Revolution, based on an expanded partnership between Africa and donor countries.	千年计划建议大幅度增加对这方面的全球资助。 根据此项成果及相关的科学发现，安南在扩大非洲和捐助国合作规模的基础上，在2004年呼吁启动非洲绿色革命。


Many of us, notably current UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, have worked hard to make this possible, with Ban repeatedly emphasizing the special emergency arising from the global food, financial, and energy crises of the past two years.	我们很多人，特别是现任联合国秘书长潘基文，为实现这一目标付出了艰苦的努力。 潘秘书长反复强调过去两年中全球粮食、金融和能源危机引发的特别问题。


The G-8 announcement reflects these years of effort, and of course the boost from the leadership of US President Barack Obama, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, European Commissioner Louis Michel, European Parliamentarian Thijs Berman, and others.	八国集团声明反映了这些年的努力，其中当然离不开美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马、西班牙总理何塞·路易斯·萨帕特罗、澳大利亚总理陆克文、世界银行行长罗伯特·佐立克、欧盟专员路易·米歇尔、欧洲议会议员蒂伊斯·伯曼、还有其他人的领导作用。


Now the key is to make this effort work.	现在的关键是要收到实效。


The lessons of history are clear.	历史的教训显而易见。


Getting seed and fertilizer to smallholder farmers at highly subsidized prices (or even free in some cases) will make a lasting difference.	向小农家庭发放含有大量补贴的种子和化肥（有时甚至是免费发放）将产生持续性效果。


Not only will food yields rise in the short term, but farm households will use their higher incomes and better health to accumulate all sorts of assets: cash balances, soil nutrients, farm animals, and their children’s health and education.	不仅能在短期内提高粮食产量，而且能使农户利用高收入和更好的医疗积累各种财富：现金盈余、土壤养分、家畜、及其子女的医疗和教育。


That boost in assets will, in turn, enable local credit markets, such as micro-finance, to begin operating.	资产的积累反过来会启动小额融资公司等当地信贷市场。


Farmers will be able to buy inputs, either out of their own cash, or by borrowing against their improved creditworthiness.	农户可以依靠自有资金或资信改善来以贷款的方式购买农用物资。


A consensus has now been reached on the need to assist smallholders, but obstacles remain.	目前已经就援助小农的必要性达成���一致，但在实际操作中还存在问题。


Perhaps the main risk is that the “aid bureaucracies” now trip over each other to try to get their hands on the $20 billion, so that much of it gets taken up by meetings, expert consultations, overhead, reports, and further meetings.	现在主要的风险或许是“官僚援助体系”竭力争夺这200亿美元的经费，想把尽可能多的部分用于会议、专家咨询、管理费用、报告撰写以及组织更多的会议。


“Partnerships” of donors can become an expensive end in themselves, merely delaying real action.	捐助国的“伙伴关系”自身又可能代价昂贵，而且除推迟实际行动外起不到任何作用。


If donor governments really want results, they should take the money out of the hands of thirty or more separate aid bureaucracies and pool it in one or two places, the most logical being the World Bank in Washington and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) in Rome.	如果捐助国政府真的看重结果，就应该从30家或者更多的独立官僚援助机构中把款项收回，集中交给一两家机构管理。 最顺理成章的管理机构是华盛顿世界银行和罗马联合国国际农业发展基金。


One or both of these agencies would then have an account with several billion dollars.	这样这一两家机构就会拥有数十亿美元的扶贫账户。


Governments in hunger-stricken regions, especially Africa, would then submit national action plans that would provide details on how they would use the donor funds to get high-yield seeds, fertilizer, irrigation, farm tools, storage silos, and local advice to impoverished farmers.	饥荒地区，特别是非洲的政府，则需提交国家行动计划，提供他们打算如何利用捐助款项为贫困农民提供高产种子、化肥、灌溉、农机、仓库和咨询建议的细节。


An independent expert panel would review the national plans to verify their scientific and managerial coherence.	将由独立的专家小组对国家计划的科学性和管理的连贯性进行评估。


Assuming that a plan passes muster, the money to support it would quickly be disbursed.	如果计划通过了检验，支持计划的资金将迅速拨付到位。


Afterward, each national program would be monitored, audited, and evaluated.	而后，将对每项国家计划进行监督、审计和评估。


This approach is straightforward, efficient, accountable, and scientifically sound.	这种方法直接、有效、负责、有着不错的科学基础。


Two major recent success stories in aid have used this approach: the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunizations, which successfully gets immunizations to young children, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria, which supports national action plans to battle these killer diseases.	最近两个成功的捐助案例就是使用的这种方法：其一是全球疫苗免疫联盟成功为儿童提供免疫服务，还有就是全球艾滋病、肺结核和疟疾基金为战胜上述致命疾病的国家计划提供了支持。


Both have saved millions of lives during the past decade, and have paved the way to a new more efficient and scientifically sound method of development assistance.	过去10年来这两家机构都挽救了数百万人的生命，并为更高效、更科学合理的新的发展援助方法铺平了道路。


Not surprisingly, many UN agencies and aid agencies in rich countries fight this approach.	很多联合国和富裕国家援助机构为此展开争夺，这并不值得大惊小怪。


All too often, the fight is about turf, rather than about the most effective way to speed help to the poor.	但这种争夺常常是为了争权夺利，而不是以最有效的方法向贫困人口提供援助。


Obama, Rudd, Zapatero, and other forward-thinking leaders can therefore make a huge difference by following up on their pledges at the G-8 and insisting that the aid really works.	奥巴马、陆克文、萨帕特罗和其他有远见的领导人因此可以通过兑现在八国峰会上的承诺、坚持要求实际援助效果带来巨大的变化。


The bureaucracies must be bypassed to get help to where it is needed: in the soil tilled by the world’s poorest farm families.	必须绕过官僚机构为由世界最贫困的农民家庭所耕种的土地提供援助。


A Black and White Question	黑白人种问题


NEW YORK – In the afternoon of July 16 two men appeared to be breaking into a fine house in an expensive area of Cambridge, Massachusetts.	纽约——7月16日下午两名男子看似正试图闯入位于马萨诸塞州坎布里奇高尚住宅区的一栋豪宅。


Alerted by a telephone call, a policeman arrived smartly on the scene.	接到电话报警后，一名警察立即赶到了现场。


He saw one black male standing inside the house and asked him to come out.	他看到一名黑人男子在房间里，就要求他出来。


The man refused.	那个人拒绝了。


He was then told to identify himself.	警察要求他说明身份。


The man, still refusing to step out, said he was a Harvard professor, showed his ID, and warned the cop not to mess with him.	该男子仍然拒绝走出房门，但说自己是一位哈佛教授，出示了证件，并警告警察不要打扰他。


He said something about black men in America being singled out, and asked the cop, who was white, for his name and identification.	他说美国黑人遭到歧视，并要求那位白人警察报名并出示警官证。


The cop, joined by several colleagues, arrested the professor for disorderly conduct.	此时该警察的几名同事赶到，他们以妨害治安为由逮捕了这位教授。


We now know that the professor had broken into his own home, with the help of his chauffeur, because the door was jammed.	我们现在知道这位教授在司机的帮助下闯入了自家的房门，因为门被卡住了。


What was unusual here was not the cop’s heavy-handedness.	这次事件中不同寻常的并不是警察的暴虐。


Most people in the US know that if you talk back to the police, they will get nasty very fast.	多数美国人都知道如果跟警察顶嘴，他们很快就会变得气急败坏。


The fact that the man was black might or might not have made the cop go for his handcuffs even sooner than he might normally have done.	这位教授是黑人的事实可能有也可能没有导致警察更快地掏出手铐。


That, too, would not have been unusual.	这一点也没有什么不同寻常。


What made this case special was that Henry Louis “Skip” Gates is one of the most celebrated professors in the country, famous for his books, his articles, and numerous television appearances.	这个案件的特殊性在于亨利·路易斯·盖茨是美国最著名的教授之一，著作等身，文章充栋，并多次在电视上露面。


He is a grandee, a mover and shaker in the academic and media world, a friend of President Barack Obama.	他称得上是位显贵，在学术和媒体圈中一呼百应，还与巴拉克·奥巴马总统私交甚笃。


That is why he warned the cop, Sgt. James Crowley, a veteran of the Cambridge police force, not to mess with him.	他因此警告詹姆斯·克劳利中士，这位坎布里奇的老资格警官不要招惹他。


Class and race overlap in the US.	美国的阶级和种族问题错综复杂。


In this instance, it is impossible to pry them apart.	在这个案件中，不可能将它们区分清楚。


Gates, deeply conscious, indeed a specialist of the terrible history of race relations in his country, instinctively assumed that he was a victim of prejudice.	盖茨非常了解美国糟糕的种族关系史，甚至可以说是这方面的专家，因此他本能地认为自己成了种族歧视的受害者。


From his words it appears that he was equally conscious of not getting the proper respect due to a distinguished Harvard professor and media celebrity.	从他的话中还可以看出他因未能获得一位哈佛教授兼媒体名人应有的尊重而耿耿于怀。


As he put it to his daughter in an interview published online: “[Crowley] should have gotten out of there and said, ‘I’m sorry, sir, good luck.	他在网上公布的一次采访中对自己的女儿说：“[克劳利]当时应该对我说，‘对不起，先生，祝您好运。 我喜欢您的[电视]系列片——回头见！


Loved your [television] series—check with you later!’”	’说完后立即离开。 ”


Alas, Sgt.Crowley had never heard of Professor Gates.	唉，克劳利中士从来没有听说过盖茨教授的大名。


A local man whose brothers all serve in the police force, a sports fan, and an amateur basketball coach, Crowley does not move in the same social circles as Gates.	作为一名兄弟都在警方供职的当地男性，一名体育爱好者，和一名业余篮球教练，克劳利和盖茨根本不属于同一个的社交圈。


As it happens, the charges were duly dropped, and there the case might have rested if President Obama, tired and frustrated after weeks of fighting for his healthcare bill, had not weighed in on behalf of his “friend” Gates, and called the police “stupid.”	实际上，对盖茨的指控已被及时取消，如果不是奥巴马总统在因连续几周争取通过医疗法案未果而感到厌倦和沮丧时去替“老友”盖茨说话，将警方斥之为“愚不可及”的话，这个案件可能已经烟消云散了。


Both he and Gates then spoke of “learning” from the incident.	然后他和盖茨都谈到了这次事件的“教训”。


Gates might even be planning a television documentary on racial profiling.	盖茨甚至可能正在筹划拍摄一部有关粗暴执法的电视纪录片。


One thing to be learned, if we didn’t know this already, is how close racial sensitivities are to the surface of US life, despite the election of a black president.	如果我们还没有吸取这样的教训，那么这件事的教训之一就是告诉我们尽管选出了一位黑人总统，但种族敏感问题多么容易在美国生活中浮出水面。


The complexities of black anger, white guilt, and of black, and white fear, are so vexed that most Americans prefer not to talk about race at all.	黑人的愤怒、白人的负疚、还有黑人和白人的恐惧是如此错综复杂，以致于多数美国人选择逃避种族话题。


The field is too full of mines.	这片领域里有着太多的地雷。


One of Obama’s great achievements is that he made it into a serious topic through the brilliance and subtlety of his rhetoric.	奥巴马最大的成就之一是他通过自己智慧巧妙的措辞，对绝大多数人讳莫如深的种族问题进行了严肃的探讨。


And there remains plenty to talk about: the grotesquely disproportionate number of black men in US prisons; the lack of educational opportunities in poor, mostly black areas; the appalling healthcare system; and the very real brutality used by police officers against blacks, who don’t have the privilege of a Harvard ID.	可以谈论的话题还有很多：包括美国监狱中比例畸高的黑人在押犯、穷人聚居区、绝大部分是黑人聚居区教育机会的匮乏、可怕的医疗体制、以及警官对没有哈佛身份的黑人所采用的真实的暴力行径。


It is probably true that many white policemen, even if they are trained to avoid racial profiling, as Sgt. Crowley was, need to be convinced that a black man can be at home in one of the finer houses of Cambridge, or any other American city.	也许的确需要说服像克劳利中士这样的许多白人警官，即便他们曾经接受过避免暴力执法的训练，黑人也可以居住在位于坎布里奇、或者其他任何美国城市的高尚住宅区的家中。


But is the Gates affair the right way to enter into this discussion?	如果不是盖茨教授，谁还能够引起关注？ 正因为他是名人显贵，才能吸引全国民众关注这一严重的问题。


One might argue that it	如果同样的事情发生在哈莱姆区，或另外一个主要由黑人构成的穷人聚居区内一个无名小卒的身上，那么也许根本就不会有人知道。 这次事件发生在坎布里奇教授身上才吸引了人们的注意力。


There is, however, a danger that it will have an adverse affect on the necessary national discussion about race.	但这个案件的确也存在着对有关种族的全国讨论产生负面影响的危险性。


By having made such a big issue out of what was in fact a relatively minor event Gates could be accused of trivializing much worse instances of abuse.	因为把实际上不那么重要的问题过分夸大，盖茨可能受到将比这恶劣很多的滥用职权事件琐碎化的指责。


Indeed, we don’t even know for certain whether this was such an instance.	事实上，我们根本不知道这个案件是否涉及到种族范畴。


Crowley never mentioned the color of Gates’ skin. There was no question of violence.	克劳利自始至终从未提到过盖茨的肤色，也没有出现过任何暴力侵害行为。


There were just very raw nerves and hypersensitivity to hints of disrespect, on the part of the professor, and of the cop.	只是教授和警察双方都对不尊重的暗示表现得过于敏感。


Outrage about a professor who is not to be messed with is not the best way to discuss the plight of countless, poor, anonymous people, whom most of us find it too easy to ignore.	一位不愿受到打扰的教授的怒火并非探讨无数贫困的无名人士所处困境的最佳方式，这些无名的小人物太容易被我们所忽略。


A Bollywood Bride for Sarkozy?	萨尔科奇的宝莱坞新娘


PARIS -- Ever since French President Nicolas Sarkozy took himself off his country’s most-eligible-bachelor list by publicly acknowledging his affair with supermodel-turned-pop-musician Carla Bruni during a romantic trip to Euro Disney, he’s run into trouble.	巴黎--自从法国总统萨尔科奇在欧洲迪斯尼的浪漫之旅期间公开承认与前超级模特、流行音乐歌手布吕尼的恋情而把自己从法国最受追逐的钻石王老五名单中除下后，他就沾染上了麻烦。


His ratings have dipped below 50% for the first time.	他的民意指数第一次下降到50%以下。


Older French citizens don’t find the public spectacle of their leader in love very amusing.	上年纪的法国人并不欣赏国家领导人公开展示恋情。


Abroad, Egyptian lawmakers were so exercised over the prospect of the French head of state sharing a bed with his girlfriend that several vented their disapproval on the floor of the parliament.	在外国，几名埃及议员们对于法国国家元首同其女友同床共枕非常激动，乃至在国会上公开表示不满。


Likewise, India is all in a quandary over how to handle protocol during Sarkozy’s impending visit to the subcontinent as the guest of honor at the country’s Republic Day celebrations on January 26.	同样，印度也对如何处理萨尔科奇即将作为国家贵宾参加该国1月26日的共和国日庆祝活动的礼宾问题为难。


Should the First Girlfriend have her own motorcade, as a first lady would?	第一女友是否应当像第一夫人一样有自己的车队呢？


Meanwhile, the same hard-right Hindu groups that protest Valentine’s Day as a decadent Western holiday have warned that if Sarkozy arrives with his girlfriend in tow, they’ll be out in the streets to welcome him.	极右翼印度教团体反对情人节，认为这是腐朽堕落的西方节日。 他们警告说，如果萨尔科奇带着女朋友来访，他们就会上街欢迎。


This controversy has threatened to cast a pall over a much-heralded summit between two of the world’s great democracies.	这一争端已经威胁给大受赞扬的世界两大民主国家的峰会蒙上阴影。


With lucrative deals at stake for the big-ticket products that drive the French economy – military hardware, nuclear power plants, and Airbus planes – France has a strong interest in a successful summit in India.	推动法国经济的的军火、核电站以及空中客车等大笔利润丰厚的交易取决于这一访问，因此，对于这次成功的印度之行，法国利益攸关。


So, as rumors fly of secret marriage ceremonies either already concluded or in the works, could the trouble brewing in India over the French president’s very public love life be behind the rush to have the couple legally wed?	因此，当秘密婚礼已经完成或者正在准备的传言飞散之际，印度对于法国总统公共恋情满城风雨是否推动了二人结婚呢？


The news in Sarkozy’s favored media outlet	萨尔科奇所喜欢的<<星期日>>杂志报导说两人打算结婚引发大众猜测婚礼究竟何时举行。 二人已经交换定情物。


It’s “serious,” the smitten president admitted.	热恋中的法国总统承认这一恋情是“严肃认真”的。


But he refused, even under direct questioning by reporters, to reveal an exact date.	但是他甚至在记者的直截了当的提问下也拒绝公开确切的日期。


“You’ll probably find out after it’s happened,” he taunted.	他大声训斥说：“完事后你们也许就会知道了。


Rumor has it the couple has set February 8 or 9 for the wedding.   Others say that Sarkozy has already outsmarted the media by secretly marrying in the Elysee Palace, even as he was dodging wedding questions.	”有传言说两人已经订下2月8日或者9日结婚。 还有人说萨尔科奇在回避结婚问题的时候已经在爱丽舍宫秘密结婚而让媒体扑空。


If that is true, then Sarkozy missed the romantic opportunity of a lifetime.	如果确实如此，萨尔科奇就错过了一辈子才有一次的浪漫机会。


If the couple sizzled for cameras with Luxor and Petra as the backdrop, just imagine how hot things could get at the most romantic spot on Earth, the Taj Mahal.	如果二人以埃及祖玛和约旦佩特拉为背景在镜头前任人拍照，那么，想像一下在世界上最为浪漫的地点印度泰姬陵前将会有多么热闹。


And, given the current rage for all things Bollywood in France, a lavish Indian wedding would be fitting.	而且，鉴于法国目前对于印度的宝莱坞电影着迷，一场浪漫的印度婚礼将会再合适不过了。


Bruni’s own life path closely resembles any number of Bollywood stars who have made the transition from model to actress.	布吕尼自身的生活道路也非常像宝莱坞明星那样从模特转到演员。


A comely brunette who sings is perfect for a Bollywood makeover.	一个漂亮的褐色头发歌唱女郎对于宝莱坞化妆而言是再好不过的了。


The Indian government will be nothing if not relieved to see the first girlfriend made a wife.	印度政府如果见到第一女友成为第一夫人而不感到如释重负就无足轻重了。 印度最大的报纸之一印度快报怕有人不懂而指出，“女朋友不是妻子或配偶。


As one of India’s leading daily newspapers, the	”一旦结婚，所有有关法国代表团礼宾问题的担心都将会烟消雾散。


Despite the sometimes downright pornographic on-screen writhing of Bollywood starlets, India is still a deeply conservative society.	除了宝莱坞刚刚出道的女演员会在银幕上有一些露骨的色情折腾表演外，印度还是一个极为保守的社会。


Divorce is anathema. (Sarkozy is now twice divorced.)	离婚是丢人现眼的事情(萨尔科奇现在已经两次离婚了)。


And, while mistresses abound among the privileged classes, they do not strut publicly by their power-mates’ sides.	而且，尽管有钱有势的人周围有不少情人，但是她们并不公开出现在这些人的周围。


Kissing and fondling in public, even by spouses, is taboo.	公共场合下即使夫妻之间亲吻拥抱也是为社会所不容。


In this respect, India more resembles the France with which Sarkozy wants to make a clean break than the current one.	在这一方面，印度倒像是萨尔科奇所想要决裂的法国，而不是当前的法国。


Most Indians, as it seems many French, would prefer not to shed the “hypocrisy” Sarkozy laments on the part of his predecessors (read: former French President François Mitterrand, who had a child with his mistress about whom the public knew nothing until the man’s funeral).	在许多法国人看来，大多数印度人情愿不放下对萨尔科奇前任们的“伪善”指责(也就是，直到法国前总统密特朗葬礼时人们才知道他有一名情妇和私生女儿)。


Sarkozy, of all people, should know that a large part of the gravitas of office derives from pomp and circumstance.	萨尔科奇要比所有的人都应该知道总统职位份量的很大一部分来自于庄重和场合。


Statecraft is a realm where appearances are meant to be deceiving.	在国事活动中，外表应当是遮人耳目的。


When Sarkozy, who otherwise has such finely tuned media instincts, protests that he’s no different from any other man, he comes dangerously close to confusing the office and the person of the president.	萨尔科奇平时具有良好的媒体本能，他抱怨说他和平常人并没有什么两样。 这时候，他就危险地把总统个人和总统职务混为一谈了。


Most French people could only dream of an exotic wedding in India.	大多数法国人只能梦见在印度举办一场充满异国情调的婚礼。


Sarkozy could make that dream come true.	萨尔科奇则可以让这一梦想成为现实。


If he really is as head-over-heels in love with Bruni as he claims, and plans to marry her imminently, why not take advantage of his upcoming trip to India and make this a wedding to remember?	如果他果真像他所说的那样对布吕尼爱得死去活来而且想要大操大办与她结婚，那么为何不利用即将到来的印度之行并让这一婚礼永志不忘呢？


He could meet his bride seated majestically on the caparison of an elaborately decorated elephant, and she would look ravishing swathed and bejeweled in Indian finery.	他可以让新娘座在一头精心打扮的大象上迎接，而新娘则身著印度鲜艳服装，珠光宝气。


The “bling-bling” president, as Sarkozy has been dubbed, can wear all the gold he wants and heap yet more diamonds on his bride.	被人称为喜欢名牌服装的总统的萨尔科奇可以穿上他所想要的所有金饰并且让新娘戴上更多的钻石。


The cameras would roll, Indians would smile, and France would be treated to a Bollywood spectacle beyond its wildest dreams.	照相机会闪个不停，印度人会抱以微笑，而法国将会受到做梦也想不到的宝莱坞式的热闹场景。


And if it’s too late for the wedding, there’s always the reception.	而且，如果没有赶上婚礼，还有婚宴呢。


A Born-Again CAP	重生的共同农业政策


WAGENINGEN, NETHERLANDS – Born in 1957, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is now more than 50 years old, and the European Commission is proposing what it calls a health check for its middle-aged child.	瓦格宁根，荷兰——诞生于1957年的共同农业政策（CAP）如今已年逾五旬，欧盟委员会正提议对它这位中年后代进行所谓的体检。


But superficial repairs will not meet the European Union’s future needs. The CAP must be born again.	不过，表面的修补碍难满足欧盟未来的需要，共同农业政策必须转世重生。


Work on its renewal is due to start now, with the completed project ready in 2013. But a much more profound re-think is needed.	与其重生有关的工作预定即刻开始，完成的计划在2013年将可付诸实施，但我们还需对其进行一番深入得多的再思考。


The CAP’s original aim was to provide a secure source of food for the six original member states of the Union, which were importers of food and sought a degree of self-sufficiency.	共同农业政策原本旨在为欧盟最初的六个成员国提供可靠的食物来源，当时这六国是食品进口国并试图实现一定的自给自足。


Good, healthy, and cheap food had to be accessible for all citizens.	所有公民都应获得优质、健康而又廉价的食品；


Improved agricultural productivity would benefit rural areas and give farmers a comparative share in the Union’s growing wealth.	提升的农业生产率将惠及农村地区，并使农民在欧盟不断增长的财富中获得相称的一份。


Instruments to achieve those objectives were developed, and food security was achieved.	实现这些目标所需的手段得到发展，食品安全也得以实现。


The CAP quickly came to be seen as the jewel in the crown of the European project.	很快，共同农业政策就被视为欧洲计划中的皇冠上的宝石。


As the EU has evolved and expanded, food systems have become more complex, involving production, processing, supply-chain organization, and wholesale and retail distribution, with all of these involving new issues like health and the environment.	随着欧盟的演化与扩张，食品体系也变得更加复杂，这一体系不但包含了生产、加工、供应链组织以及批发和零售配销等环节，而且每一环节又涉及诸如健康、环保等新的问题；


The use of land is also receiving more serious scrutiny.	对土地的使用也受到更为认真的监控。


A 1991 study by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Governmental Policy, entitled	1991年由荷兰政府政策科学委员会进行的一次名为


Those figures were for an EU of 15 countries, so with today’s 27 members the possibilities are even greater.	这些数据还只是针对彼时只有15个成员的欧盟，如今欧盟已扩大为27国，因此其潜在可能变得更为巨大。


A Dutch analysis of land use has shown that by employing the best technical and ecological means on the best available land, substantial gains could be made in food production.	一份荷兰的土地使用分析已经表明，通过在最好的可使用土地上运用最佳的技术与生态手段，食物生产可以显著增加。


So it is not surprising that the number of farmers needed has fallen substantially.	因此，所需农民数量也已经显著减少这一点不再令人吃惊。


Viewed from the standpoint of food security and the wealth of rural areas, there is now an urgent need to revisit the CAP’s main instruments so that a new policy formula can be introduced.	从食品安全与农村地区财富状况的角度看，目前，重访共同农业政策的主要手段以引入新的政策方案的需求颇为迫切。


Perverse subsidies must be removed and recent new ones favoring products such as bio-fuels reconsidered.	不当的补贴必须取消，近来有利于生物燃料等产品的新补贴则需加以重新考虑。


The	但这一态度正有损于变化。 竞争必须加以鼓励，因为更多的农村企业活动将强化农业社群，使得农民数量减少，而农场变得更好。


A simplified CAP would encourage cleaner, more productive, and efficient agriculture.	一个简化版的共同农业政策将鼓励更为清洁、更加多产并且高效的农业。


A side benefit for the EU’s standing in the world could be that the World Trade Organization’s stalled Doha negotiations could be restarted once farmers in developing countries are assured of getting a fair deal from Europe.	对于欧盟在世界上的地位而言，此举还有一个额外益处，那就是一旦发展中国家的农民得到保证，将获得来自欧洲的公平待遇后，世界贸易组织陷于中止的多哈谈判就能重新启动。


Moreover, the CAP’s role as a motor of political and social integration in Europe could be restored once renewed policies are in place.	而且只要更新后的政策就位，共同农业政策在欧洲政治与社会整合过程中所扮演的发动机角色就能恢复。


But renewal of this sort cannot be left to global market forces, as the results might not necessarily benefit European agriculture and society.	不过此类更新不能听任全球市场力量的摆布，因为其结果可能并不一定有利于欧洲农业与社会。


If the market “misbehaves,” farmers could be reduced to poverty, leading to the neglect of large areas of Europe.	如果市场“运作失当”，农民就会陷入贫困，并导致欧洲大片地区受到忽视。


That is a real enough danger to which policymakers must give serious thought as they reform the CAP on the basis of the following five pillars.	这是决策者们根据以下五条重要原则改革共同农业政策时必须严肃加以考虑的、足够真切的危险。


1.      The EU needs a knowledge and innovation policy that strengthens European agriculture’s competitiveness.	1、欧盟需要一个增强欧洲农业竞争力的知识与创新政策。


Such a policy has been successful in the Netherlands, substantially contributing to the development and power of the country’s agribusiness.	这一政策曾在荷兰取得成功，对该国农业综合企业的发展与实力贡献良多。


Ten of 21 branches of Dutch agribusiness, including horticultural seeds, ornamentals, seed potatoes, and veal, are among the top contributors to the national economy and the country’s trade balance.	荷兰农业综合企业21个分支中的10个（包括园艺育种、观赏植物、种用马铃薯与小牛肉）位列对该国经济与贸易收支平衡贡献最大的产业之中。


In the EU as a whole, a policy directed toward research programs stimulating scientific excellence and greater coherence in the European knowledge system would greatly strengthen agriculture’s competitiveness and contribute to food security and sustainable development.	欧盟作为整体而言，导向刺激科学卓越成就与欧洲知识体系内更高一致性的研究项目的政策将极大地增强农业竞争力并有助于食品安全和可持续发展。


2.      Europe also needs a restructuring policy for land use.	2、欧洲也需要一个关于土地使用的重组政策。


Many structural improvement programs have been financed at the European level, but agricultural production and land use are not among them.	在欧洲层面已有许多结构性改进项目得到资助，但农业生产与土地使用却不在其中。


The development of an Agricultural Main Structure would compliment the European Ecological Main Structure.	农业主体结构的发展将补全欧洲主体生态结构。


Reforestation and the repair of natural ecosystems should also be part of a land use policy.	重新造林与自然生态系统的修复也应当被纳入土地使用政策之中。


3.      A policy for European food systems would treat production, processing, distribution, logistics, and retailing in combination.	3、关于欧洲食品体系的政策应对生产、加工、分配、物流以及零售诸环节进行联合考虑。


Consumption patterns and preferences are an integral part of such systems.	消费模式与偏好也是这类体系不可或缺的一部分。


Preliminary studies by the European Science Foundation’s “Forward Look on European Food Systems” could prove useful in devising an EU-wide policy.	欧洲科学基金会所做的初步研究 ——“对欧洲食品体系的展望”将为欧盟范围的政策创制提供帮助。


4.      Metropolitan agriculture in a rapidly urbanizing world can provide high-quality produce on small amounts of land.	4、在一个高速城市化的世界中，都市型农业能凭借少量的土地供应高质量的农产品。


It offers an answer to rising demand for healthy food with minimal environmental side effects.	这为如何满足对健康食品不断增长的需求，同时又对环境的副作���最小这一问题提供了一个答案。


5.      A new CAP should include a policy to safeguard Europe’s landscapes.	5、新的共同农业政策应当包含一个保护欧洲地形的方案。


But a cultural heritage should not be maintained everywhere, nor should it ignore cost.	但并非各处都应保留文化遗产，也不该忽视其成本。


And it should not be a defensive policy of the sort that tends to concentrate on poor-quality land.	同时它还不应该成为一个趋向全力聚焦于贫瘠土地的防御性政策。


These five pillars involve drastic choices, but they will probably require less money from Europe’s taxpayers, not more.	上述五条重要原则涉及到激烈的选择，但它们可能只需欧洲纳税人付出更少的资金，而非更多。


They could make a real contribution to cleaner, more productive, and efficient farming and land use, while addressing social needs.	它们将对更为清洁、更加多产并且高效的农业与土地使用做出真正的贡献，并能兼顾社会的需求。


A Breakthrough Against Hunger	突破饥饿危机


NEW YORK – Today’s world hunger crisis is unprecedentedly severe and requires urgent measures.	纽约—当今世界饥饿危机的严重程度前所未有，已是当务之急。


Nearly one billion people are trapped in chronic hunger – perhaps 100 million more than two years ago.	近十亿人在忍受着长期饥饿的煎熬—这样的人口很可能比两年前增加了一亿。


Spain is taking global leadership in combating hunger by inviting world leaders to Madrid in late January to move beyond words to action.	西班牙正在对抗饥饿方面起着全球性的领导作用。 它将邀请世界各国领导人于一月底汇聚马德里，将言语付诸行动。


With Spain’s leadership and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s partnership, several donor governments are proposing to pool their financial resources so that the world’s poorest farmers can grow more food and escape the poverty trap.	在西班牙的领导和联合国秘书长潘基文的支持下，几个捐助国政府正协商着将他们的财政资源集中起来以便让世界上最贫困的农民能够种植更多的粮食，从而摆脱贫穷的陷阱。


The benefits of some donor help can be remarkable.	捐助国的支援所带来的好处是不言而喻的。


Peasant farmers in Africa, Haiti, and other impoverished regions currently plant their crops without the benefit of high-yield seed varieties and fertilizers.	非洲、海地和其他贫困地区目前都在没有高产种子和化肥的情况下种植作物。


The result is a grain yield (for example, maize) that is roughly one-third less than what could be achieved with better farm inputs.	其结果就是粮食产量（例如玉米）比在有更好的农业投入的情况下大约要少三分之一。


African farmers produce roughly one ton of grain per hectare, compared with more than four tons per hectare in China, where farmers use fertilizers heavily.	相较于大量施用化肥的中国农民每公顷四吨的产量，非洲农民每公顷的粮食产量只有约一吨。


African farmers know that they need fertilizer; they just can’t afford it.	非洲农民知道他们需要化肥，只是买不起。


With donor help, they can.	有了捐助国的帮助，他们就能用上化肥了。


Not only do these farmers then feed their families, but they also can begin to earn market income and to save for the future.	到那时，这些农民不仅能养家糊口，还能开始赚取市场收入并为未来而储蓄。


By building up savings over a few years, the farmers eventually become creditworthy, or have enough cash to purchase vitally necessary inputs on their own.	有了几年的积蓄，这些农民最终能够成为具有银行信用的人，或者有足够的现金自行购买必需的农业投入。


There is now widespread agreement on the need for increased donor financing for small farmers (those with two hectares or less of land, or impoverished pastoralists), which is especially urgent in Africa.	现今的一个广泛共识是捐助融资对非洲小农户（拥有两公顷或以下土地，或者是贫穷的畜牧业者）的必要性和急迫性。


The UN Secretary General led a steering group last year that determined that African agriculture needs around $8 billion per year in donor financing – roughly four times the current total – with a heavy emphasis on improved seeds, fertilizer, irrigation systems, and extension training.	联合国秘书长领导的一个指导小组去年得出的结论是非洲农业每年需要约八十亿的捐助融资—大约是现有规模的四倍—而重中之重是改良的种子、化肥、灌溉系统和延伸培训。


In addition to direct help for small farms, donors should provide more help for the research and development needed to identify new high-yielding seed varieties, especially to breed plants that can withstand temporary flooding, excess nitrogen, salty soils, crop pests, and other challenges to sustainable food production.	除了对小农场的直接援助外，捐助方还应该在必需的研发方面给予更多的帮助，从而开发更多种类的新高产种子，特别是用以培育能够耐受暂时的洪涝、过量的氮、盐质土壤、害虫和其他可持续粮食生产所面临的挑战的作物。


Helping the poor with today’s technologies, while investing in future improved technologies, is the optimum division of labor.	以当今的技术帮助穷人，同时投资于未来更好的技术是最佳的分工。


This investment pays off wonderfully, with research centers such as the International Rice Research Institute and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre providing the high-yield seeds and innovative farming strategies that together triggered the Asian Green Revolution.	有了如国际水稻研究所和国际玉米及小麦研究所这些提供高产种子和创新农业战略，并共同引发了亚洲“绿色革命”的研究中心，这种投资的回报极为可观。


These centers are not household names, but they deserve to be.	这些中心并非人尽皆知，但它们的确是无名英雄。


Their scientific breakthroughs have helped to feed the world, and we’ll need more of them.	它们的科学突破帮助我们养活了全世界的人口，这样的机构应该更多一些。


Dozens of low-income, food-deficit countries, perhaps as many as 40-50, have elaborated urgent programs for increased food production by small farms, but are currently held back by the lack of donor funding.	数十个低收入、粮食赤字的国家（可能有四十到五十个）已经宣布了旨在增加小农场粮食产量的紧急计划，但却由于缺少捐助方的资金支持而力不从心。


These countries have appealed to the World Bank for financing, and the Bank made a valiant effort in 2008 to help through its new Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFCRP).	这些国家向世界银行请求融资，而该行在2008年也不遗余力地通过其新的“全球粮食危机响应计划” (GFCRP) 提供了帮助。


But the Bank does not yet have sufficient funds to meet these countries’ urgent needs, and has had to ration assistance to a small fraction of the flows that could be effectively and reliably used.	但世行资金在满足这些国家的紧急需求方面也是捉襟见肘，并不得不对援助资金进行配额限制，使得其数额相对于原本所需的可靠而有效资金量而言只是杯水车薪。


Hundreds of millions of people, in the meantime, remain trapped in hunger.	同时，近十亿人则在饥饿中挣扎。


Many individual donor countries have declared that they are now prepared to increase their financial support for smallholder agriculture, but are searching for the appropriate mechanisms to do so.	许多捐助国都各自宣称正准备增加对小型农业的资金支持，但现在正寻求一种合适的实施机制。


The current aid structures are inadequate.	目前的援助架构尚有欠缺。


The more than 20 bilateral and multilateral donor agencies for agriculture are highly fragmented and of insufficient scale individually and collectively.	二十余家双边和多边的农业援助机构则高度分散，其规模不论个体还是集体都尚显不足。


Despite the dedicated efforts of many professionals, the response to the hunger crisis remains utterly inadequate.	尽管许多专业人士付出了巨大的努力，但对饥饿危机的响应仍然远远不足。


The 2008 planting seasons came and went with much too little additional help for impoverished small farmers.	2008年的种植季节来了又去，贫穷的小农户们在此期间所获得的额外援助仍是少之又少。


African countries search endlessly, and mostly fruitlessly, for the small amounts of funding needed for their purchases of fertilizer and improved seeds.	非洲国家无尽地，也几乎无果地寻求着购买化肥和良种所需的小额资金。


My colleagues and I, serving on an advisory committee for the Spanish initiative, have recommended that donors pool their funds into a single international account, which we call the Financial Coordination Mechanism (FCM).	作为西班牙政府此项计划的顾问委员会成员，我和我的同事们建议捐助方将他们的资金集中到同一个被我们称为“融资协调机制(FCM)”的国际账户。


These pooled funds would enable farmers in poor countries to obtain the fertilizer, improved seed varieties, and small-scale irrigation equipment that they urgently need.	这些集中起来的资金能让贫穷国家的农民获得急需的化肥、良种和小型灌溉设备。


Poor countries would receive prompt and predictable financing for agricultural inputs from a single account, rather than from dozens of distinct and fragmented donors.	穷国能从一个统一账户而不是数十个各自为政且高度分散的捐助方获得即时和可预见的农业投入融资。


By pooling financial resources into a single-donor FCM, aid programs’ administrative costs could be kept low, the availability of aid flows could be assured, and poor countries would not have to negotiate 25 times in order to receive help.	通过将财政资源集中到一个统一的捐助方FCM，可以保持较低的援助计划行政成本，援助资金流的持续性也能得到保证，而穷国也不必为了获得援助而进行二十五次谈判。


The time for business as usual is over.	按部就班的时代一去不返。


The donors promised to double aid to Africa by 2010, but are still far off track.	捐助方承诺到2010年将援助资金增加一倍，但现在仍是任重道远。


Indeed, during the past 20 years, they actually cut aid for agriculture programs, and only now are reversing course.	的确，在过去的二十年里，他们实际上削减了农业计划的援助资金，直到现在才开始回到正轨。


Meanwhile, a billion people go hungry each day.	与此同时，十亿人却每天生活在饥饿的阴影之中。


We need a breakthrough that is demonstrable, public, clear, and convincing, that can mobilize the public’s hearts and minds, and that can demonstrate success.	我需要一种突破，它具有示范效应，公开、明晰并具有说服力； 它能激发公众的身心投入，并彰显成功。


History can be made in Madrid at the end of January, when the world’s richest and poorest countries converge to seek solutions to the global hunger crisis.	当世界上最富裕和最贫穷的国家在一月底齐心协力寻求全球饥饿危机的解决之道时，我们就能在马德里创造历史。


The lives of the billion poorest people depend on it.	十亿最贫穷人口的生命皆系于此。


A Breakthrough Opportunity for Global Health	全球卫生状况的突破性机会


NEW YORK – Every year, millions of people die from preventable and treatable diseases, especially in poor countries.	纽约—每年都有数百万人因可防可治的疾病而身亡，特别是在穷国。


In many cases, lifesaving medicines can be cheaply mass-produced, but are sold at prices that block access to those who need them.	在很多情形中，救命药可以以低廉的成本大量生产，但售价却让需要者望而却步。


And many die simply because there are no cures or vaccines, because so little of the world’s valuable research talent and limited resources is devoted to addressing the diseases of the poor.	更有许多人的死仅仅是因为缺少治疗或疫苗，而造成这种情况的原因是用于为穷人治病的世界宝贵研究人才和有限资源太少。


This state of affairs represents a failure of economics and law that urgently needs to be corrected.	如此状况反映了经济学和法律方面急需得到修正的失灵。


The good news is that there are now opportunities for change, most promisingly through an international effort headed by the World Health Organization that would begin to fix the broken intellectual-property regime that is holding back the development and availability of cheap drugs.	好消息是现在改变的机会已现，主要是通过一项由世界卫生组织牵头的国际计划，该计划将开始修正造成廉价药品开发和难以获得问题的知识产权制度漏洞。


Two main problems limit the availability of medicines today.	如今，药品之所以难以获得，主要是拜两大问题所赐。


One is that they are very costly; or, more accurately, the price charged for them is very high, though the cost of producing them is but a fraction of that amount.	其中之一是药品成本太高； 或者，更正确地说，是药品要价太高，而生产成本只是要价的一小部分。


Second, drug development is geared toward maximizing profit, not social benefit, which skews efforts directed at the creation of medicines that are essential to human welfare.	第二个问题是药品开发的着眼点是利润最大化，而不是社会效益最大化，这使得药品开发倾向于创造对人类福利至关重要的品种。


Because the poor have so little money to spend, drug companies, under current arrangements, have little incentive to do research on the diseases that afflict them.	而穷人根本没有多少钱可花，因此，在现有安排下，制药公司根本没什么激励研究折磨穷人的疾病。


It doesn’t have to be this way.	事情本不必如此。


Drug companies argue that high prices are necessary to fund research and development.	制药公司指出，要价高是必要的，这是为了给研发提供资金。


But, in the United States, it is actually the government that finances most health-related research and development – directly, through public support (National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation), and indirectly, through public purchases of medicine, both in the Medicare and Medicaid programs.	但是，在美国，大部分卫生相关研发活动的实际出资者是政府——或是通过公共支持（美国国家卫生研究院、国家科学基金会等）直接提供资金，或是通过药品公共采购（如医疗保险和医疗补助计划）间接提供资金。


Even the part that is not government-financed is not a conventional market; most individuals’ purchases of prescription medicines are covered by insurance.	不能获得政府融资的部分也不是传统市场； 许多个人的处方药支出都能获得保险赔付。


Government finances health-care research because improved medicines are a public good.	政府之所以为卫生研究提供融资，是因为改善药品是一种公共品。


The resulting knowledge benefits everyone by stopping epidemics and limiting the economic and human toll of widespread illness.	由此带来的知识进步能防止传染病、减轻常见病的经济和人身伤害，从而让每个人都受益。


Efficiency requires sharing research as widely as possible as soon as it is available.	要获得高效，就必须在获得知识进步后尽可能快地共享之。


Thomas Jefferson compared knowledge to candles: when one is used to light another, it does not diminish the light of the first.	托马斯·杰斐逊曾将知识比作蜡烛：用一根蜡烛点燃另一根蜡烛，并不会减弱前一根蜡烛的光辉。


On the contrary, everything becomes brighter.	相反，这样能使所有东西都变得更亮。


Yet, in America and most of the world, drug prices are still exorbitant and the spread of knowledge is tightly limited.	但是，在美国以及世界大部分地区，药品价格依然高得离谱，知识的传播则受到了严格的制约。


That is because we have created a patent system that gives innovators a temporary monopoly over what they create, which encourages them to hoard their knowledge, lest they help a competitor.	这是因为我们所创造的专利制度给了创新者对其所创之物的暂时垄断权，这促使创新者对知识敝帚自珍，唯恐助了竞争者一臂之力。


While this system does provide incentives for certain kinds of research by making innovation profitable, it allows drug companies to drive up prices, and the incentives do not necessarily correspond to social returns.	这一制度使得创新有利可图，从而确实为某些类型的研究提供了激励； 但制药公司也因此得以坐地起价，它们获得的激励与社会回报不一定相容。


In the health-care sector, it may be more profitable to devote research to a “me-too” drug than to the development of a treatment that really makes a difference.	在卫生领域，致力于研究“仿造”药可能比开发一种另辟蹊径的疗法更加有利可图。


The patent system may even have adverse effects on innovation, because, while the most important input into any research is prior ideas, the patent system encourages secrecy.	专利制度甚至可能对创新起到反作用，因为研究的最重要输入变量是领先的思想，而专利制度却在鼓励彼此保密。


A solution to both high prices and misdirected research is to replace the current model with a government-supported prize fund.	要价高企和研究��向偏差问题的解决之道是用政府奖励基金代替现有模式。


With a prize system, innovators are rewarded for new knowledge, but they do not retain a monopoly on its use.	在奖励制度下，创新者将因新知识而受到奖赏，但不再获得新知识使用的垄断权。


That way, the power of competitive markets can ensure that, once a drug is developed, it is made available at the lowest possible price – not at an inflated monopoly price.	这样一来，竞争性市场的力量将能保证只要药品被开发出来，就能以尽可能低的价格（而不是大大膨胀的垄断价）为患者所获。


Fortunately, some US lawmakers are taking a strong interest in this approach.	幸运的是，一些美国立法者已对这一方法产生了浓厚兴趣。


The Prize Fund for HIV/AIDS Act, a congressional bill introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders, is just such an initiative.	参议员桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）提出、并获得国会通过的艾滋病奖励基金法（Prize Fund for HIV/AIDS Act）只是一个开始。


His bill also contains an important provision aimed at encouraging open-source research, which would move the current research model away from secrecy toward sharing.	桑德斯的法案包括了一个旨在鼓励开源研究的重要部分，将促使现有研究模式从保密转向共享。


But, globally, our innovation system needs much bigger changes.	但是，从全球角度看，我们的创新制度还需要做出大得多的变化。


The WHO’s efforts to encourage broad reforms at the international level are crucial.	世界卫生组织旨在促进国际层面的广泛改革的努力非常关键。


This spring, the WHO released a report that recommends solutions similar to those proposed in the US Senate bill, but on a global level.	今年春天，世界卫生组织公布了一份报告，其中提出了一项类似于桑德斯法案的解决之道——只不过世卫组织的方案是全球水平的。


Importantly, the report, “Research and Development to Meet Health Needs in Developing Countries,” recommends a comprehensive approach, including mandatory funding contributions from governments for research on developing countries’ health needs; international coordination of health-care priorities and implementation; and a global observatory that would monitor where needs are greatest.	有一点很重要，这份题为《用研发满足发展中国家的卫生需要》（“Research and Development to Meet Health Needs in Developing Countries）给出了一个完整的方法，包括来自政府的指令性发展中国家卫生研究资金分配； 优先卫生项目和实施的国际合作；


In late May, the international community will have a chance to begin implementing these ideas at the WHO World Health Assembly – a moment of hope for public health around the world.	以及监测最紧迫需求的全球观察组。 5月底，国际社会将由机会在世界卫生组织大会上开始实施这些想法，这将是世界公共卫生的希望时刻。


Reforming our innovation system is not just a matter of economics.	改革创新制度并不仅仅是一个经济问题。


It is, in many cases, a matter of life and death.	在很多情况下，它是个事关生死的大问题。


It is therefore essential to de-link R&D incentives from drug prices, and to promote greater sharing of scientific knowledge.	因此，将研发激励与药品价格脱钩、鼓励更多的科学知识分享至关重要。


For America, the Sanders bill marks important progress.	对美国来说，桑德斯法案是一次重大进步。


For the world, the WHO’s recommendations represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to remedy a long-standing and egregious inequity in health care, and, more broadly, to set a model for governance of global public goods befitting an era of globalization.	对全世界来说，世卫组织的建议可谓修正长期存在的卫生不平等性恶疾的千载难逢的良机（从更广的角度讲，也是设立与全球化时代相适应的全球公共品治理新模式的良机）。


We cannot afford to let this opportunity pass us by.	我们决不能坐视这个机会从手中白白溜走。


Absent-Minded Killers	心不在焉的杀戮者


As a species, human beings have a major self-control problem.	作为一个物种，人类存在很大的自我控制问题。


We humans are now so aggressively fishing, hunting, logging, and growing crops in all parts of the world that we are literally chasing other species off the planet.	我们人类现在全世界所有的地方如此大肆捕鱼、打猎、采伐和种植作物，乃至我们实际上在把其他物种从地球上驱赶出去。


Our intense desire to take all that we can from nature leaves precious little for other forms of life.	我们极度想要从大自然中索取所有我们可以索取的东西，留给其他生物种类的东西少之又少。


In 1992, when the world’s governments first promised to address man-made global warming, they also vowed to head off the human-induced extinction of other species.	在1992年世界各国政府第一次保证解决人为全球气候变暖的时候，他们同时还誓言阻止由人类引发的其他物种的灭绝。


The Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed at the Rio Earth Summit, established that “biological diversity is a common concern of humanity.”	在里约热内卢通过的生物多样性公约确认“生物多样性是人类的共同关切问题。


The signatories agreed to conserve biological diversity, by saving species and their habitats, and to use biological resources (e.g., forests) in a sustainable manner.	”签署国们同意通过挽救物种及其栖息地来保全生物多样性，并且以可持续的方式使用生物资源(例如森林)。


In 2002, the treaty’s signatories went further, committing to “a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss” by 2010.	2002年，该公约的签署国们更进一步，承诺在2010年以前“大幅度削减目前的生物多样性损失”。


Unfortunately, like so many other international agreements, the Convention on Biological Diversity remains essentially unknown, un-championed, and unfulfilled.	不幸的是，就像其他如此众多的国际公约一样，生物多样性公约基本上不为人所知，没有得到宣传促进，也没有得到落实。


That neglect is a human tragedy.	这一疏忽是人类的悲剧。


For a very low cash outlay – and perhaps none at all on balance – we could conserve nature and thus protect the basis of our own lives and livelihoods.	只需要很少的现金投入，甚至在根本上不需要花钱，我们就本能够保全自然，并且进而保护人类自身生命和生计的基础。


We kill other species not because we must, but because we are too negligent to do otherwise.	我们并非是出于必须才杀戮其他物种，而是我们过于疏忽，乃至不改弦更张。


Consider a couple of notorious examples.	让我们来看一看几个臭名昭著的例子。


Some rich countries, such as Spain, Portugal, Australia, and New Zealand, have fishing fleets that engage in so-called “bottom trawling.”	像西班牙、葡萄牙、澳大利亚以及新西兰等富国拥有从事所谓“水底拖网”的捕鱼船队。


Bottom trawlers drag heavy nets over the ocean bottom, destroying magnificent, unexplored, and endangered marine species in the process.	水底拖网在海洋底部拖走很重的鱼网，从而在这一过程中摧毁大量没有探明并且受到威胁的海洋物种。


Complex and unique ecologies, most notably underground volcanoes known as seamounts, are ripped to shreds, because bottom trawling is the “low cost” way to catch a few deep sea fish species.	因为水底拖网是捕捞某些深海鱼种的“低成本”办法，因此某些复杂而又独特的生态、最为主要的是被称为海底山的地下火山被切断。


One of these species, orange roughy, has been caught commercially for only around a quarter-century, but already is being fished to the point of collapse.	其中的一个物种叫做橙连鳍鲑，被用于商业捕捞不过大约25年的时间，但是已经被捕捞得处于崩溃的边缘。


Likewise, in many parts of the world, tropical rainforest is being cleared for pasture land and food crops.	同样在世界许多地方，热带雨林遭到砍伐来开辟牧场和粮食作物。


The result is massive loss of habitat and destruction of species, yielding a tiny economic benefit at a huge social cost.	结果就是栖息地的大量损失和物种的毁灭，所产生的微小的经济利益是以巨大的社会成本为代价的。


After cutting down a swath of rainforest, soils are often quickly leached of their nutrients so that they cannot sustain crops or nutritious grasses for livestock.	在一片雨林被砍伐后，土壤通常马上就丧失了养分， 无法供养作物或者让家畜食用有营养的草地。


As a result, the new pasture land or farmland is soon abandoned, with no prospect for regeneration of the original forest and its unique ecosystems.	结果，新的牧场或农田马上被放弃，没有机会再退耕还林，恢复其独特的生态系统。


Because these activities’ costs are so high and their benefits so low, stopping them would be easy.	由于这些活动的代价高昂、收益低下，停止这些活动是容易的。


Bottom trawling should simply be outlawed; it would be simple and inexpensive to compensate the fishing industry during a transition to other activities.	水底拖网应当干脆被取缔； 在捕鱼产业向其他活动转型期间予以补偿是容易做到而且也是费用不大的。


Forest clearing, on the other hand, is probably best stopped by economic incentives, perhaps combined with regulatory limits.	另一方面，砍伐森林最好通过经济激励的方式辅之以管治限制予以制止。


Simply restricting the practice of land clearing probably would not work, since farm families and communities would face a strong temptation to evade legal limits.	简单地限制开发土地的做法可能无法奏效，因为农业家庭和社区将会面临极大的躲避法律限制的诱惑。


On the other hand, financial incentives would probably succeed, because cutting down forest to create pastureland is not profitable enough to induce farmers to forego payments for protecting the land.	在另一方面，财政刺激可能会成功，因为砍伐森林来创造牧场土地并不有利可图，从而使得农民为了保护土地而放弃付款。


Many rainforest countries have united in recent years to suggest the establishment of a rainforest conservation fund by the rich countries, to pay impoverished small farmers a small amount of money to preserve the forest.	许多雨林国家在最近几年中联合起来提议富有国家建立雨林储存基金，用来向贫困的小农场主支付少量金额来保护森林。


A well-designed fund would slow or stop deforestation, preserve biodiversity, and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide the burning of cleared forests.	一个设计合理的基金将会放缓或者停止森林采伐，保护生物多样性，并且减少燃烧砍伐后的森林所造成的二氧化碳排放。


At the same time, small farmers would receive a steady flow of income, which they could use for micro-investments to improve their household’s wealth, education, and health.	与此同时，小农场主将会得到稳定的收入，他们可以用这笔钱作小额投资用以改善家庭的财富、教育和健康。


Aside from banning bottom trawling and establishing a global fund for avoided deforestation, we should designate a global network of protected marine areas, in which fishing, boating, polluting, dredging, drilling, and other damaging activities would be prohibited.	除了取缔水底拖网并且建立为避免森林砍伐的全球性基金外，我们应当指定一个全球性的海洋保护区域网络，在这些区域中禁止捕鱼、划船、污染、挖泥、钻探以及其他有害的活动。


Such areas not only permit the regeneration of species, but also provide ecological benefits that spill over to neighboring unprotected areas.	这些区域不仅可以重新恢复物种，而且还可以提供生态效益向邻近的未保护区域扩散。


We also need a regular scientific process to present the world with the evidence on species abundance and extinction, just as we now have such a process for climate change.	我们还需要定期的科学进程来向世界展示物种繁荣和灭绝的证据，正如有关气候变化的进程一样。


Politicians don’t listen very well to individual scientists, but they are forced to listen when hundreds of scientists speak with a united voice.	政客们并不十分听取个别科学家的意见，但是当几百个科学家异口同声的时候他们就不得不���取了。


Finally, the world should negotiate a new framework no later than 2010 to slow human-induced climate change.	最后，各国应该在不迟于2010年谈判一项新的框架来减缓人为引起的气候变化。


There can be little doubt that climate change poses one of the greatest risks to species’ viability.	毫无疑问，气候变化是物种生存最大的威胁之一。


As the planet warms, and rain and storm patterns change dramatically, many species will find themselves in climate zones that no longer support their survival.	当地球变暖、 降雨和风暴模式大幅度改变之际，许多物种都会处于不再支持其存活的气候区域内。


Some can migrate, but others (such as polar bears) are likely to be driven to extinction unless we take decisive action to head off climate change.	某些物种可以迁徙，但是，除非我们采取决定性的行动来阻止气候变化，其他的物种(例如北极熊)就有可能遭到灭绝。


These measures are achievable by 2010.	在2010年以前实现这些目标是可能的。


They are affordable, and in each case would ultimately deliver large net benefits.	它们在经济上是可以承担的，而且在各个情况下都最终会带来巨大的净效益。


Most importantly, they would allow us to follow through on a global promise.	最为重要的是，这将会让我们实现全球性的许诺。


It is too painful to believe that humanity would destroy millions of other species – and jeopardize our own future – in a fit of absent-mindedness.	人类在心不在焉之际会摧毁数以白万计的其他物种并威胁到我们自己的未来，要相信这一点是过于痛苦的。


Making Do With More	多劳应多得


BERKELEY – In the United States, just three out of ten workers are needed to produce and deliver the goods we consume.	伯克利—在美国，生产和递送我们所消费的商品只需要十分之三的工人。


Everything we extract, grow, design, build, make, engineer, and transport – down to brewing a cup of coffee in a restaurant kitchen and carrying it to a customer's table – is done by roughly 30% of the country's workforce.	我们提炼、种植、设计、建造、制作、打磨和运送的所有东西——一直到从饭店厨房泡一杯咖啡并送给餐桌前的顾客——是由大约30%的美国劳动力做的。


The rest of us spend our time planning what to make, deciding where to install the things we have made, performing personal services, talking to each other, and keeping track of what is being done, so that we can figure out what needs to be done next.	我们其他人把时间花在规划制造什么、决定把我们造出来的东西摆在哪里、履行个人服务、彼此谈话、追踪正在制造什么上，以便我们能够发现我们下一步需要做什么。


And yet, despite our obvious ability to produce much more than we need, we do not seem to be blessed with an embarrassment of riches.	而尽管我们显然拥有制造比我们需要的多得多的东西的能力，但我们似乎并不会富得发慌。


One of the great paradoxes of our time is that workers and middle-class households continue to struggle in a time of unparalleled plenty.	现时代的一大悖论正是工人和中产阶级家庭在前无古人的丰裕时代仍然要为生活奔波。


We in the developed countries have more than enough to cover our basic needs.	我们发达国家的人要想满足基本需要易如反掌。 我们有的是有机碳氢键，打破它们就能 给我们带来卡路里；


We have enough organic carbon-hydrogen bonds to break to provide us with calories; enough vitamins and other nutrients to keep us healthy; enough shelter to keep us dry; enough clothing to keep us warm; enough capital to keep us, at least potentially, productive; and enough entertainment to keep us from being bored.	我们有的是维生素和其他营养物质帮助我们保持健康； 我们有的是居所让我们保持干燥；


And we produce all of it for an average of less than two hours a day of work outside the home.	我们有的是娱乐项目让我们不至于无聊。 我们生产所有这些，只需要平均每天花不到两小时走出家门去工作。


John Maynard Keynes was not off by much when he famously predicted in 1930 that the human race's “economic problem, the struggle for subsistence," was likely to be “solved, or be at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years."	1930年，当凯恩斯的著名预言预测人类的“经济问题，即生存斗争”有可能“在一百年内得到解决，或至少看到解决办法。


It will take another generation, perhaps, before robots have completely taken over manufacturing, kitchen work, and construction; and the developing world looks to be 50 years behind. But Keynes would have been spot on had he targeted his essay at his readers' great-great-great-great grandchildren.	”


And yet there are few signs that working- and middle-class Americans are living any better than they did 35 years ago.	然而没有什么迹象表明美国工人和中产阶级比35年前生活得更好。


Even stranger, productivity growth does not seem to be soaring, as one would expect; in fact, it seems to be decelerating, according to research by John Fernald and Bing Wang, economists in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.	更奇怪的是，生产率增长似乎没有如你预期的那样大幅加速； 事实上，根据旧金山联邦储备银行经济研究部的约翰·费纳尔多（John Fernald）和王兵（音）的研究，生产率增长出现了减速。


Growth prospects are even worse, as innovation hits gale-force headwinds.	增长前景甚至更加糟糕，因为创新活动撞上了南墙。


One way to reconcile the changes in the job market with our lived experience and statistics like these is to note that much of what we are producing is very different from what we have made in the past.	一个协调就业市场变化与我们的生活经验和这些统计数字的办法是注意到我们生产的许多东西与我们过去所制造的东西区别很大。


For most of human experience, the bulk of what we produced could not be easily shared or used without permission.	在人类历史的大部分时间里，我们生产出来的东西无法轻易地在未经允许的情况下共享或使用。


The goods we made were what economists call “rival" and “excludible" commodities.	我们以前制造的东西是经济学家所谓的“竞争性”或“排他性”商品。


Being “rival" means that two people cannot use the same product at the same time.	“竞争性”是指两个人无法在同时使用同一个产品。


Being “excludible" means that the owner of a product can easily prevent others from using it.	“排他性”是指产品的所有者可以轻易地阻止其他人使用这个产品。


These two traits put a great deal of bargaining power in the hands of those who control production and distribution, making them ideal for a market economy based on private property.	这两个特征让控制生产和分配的人拥有了巨大的议价权，成为基于私人产权的市场经济的理想之选。


Money naturally flows to where utility and value are being provided – and those flows are easy to track in national accounts.	钱自然而然地流向了提供效用和价值的地方——并且这些资金流可以轻易地在国民账户中进行追踪。


But much of what we are producing in the information age is neither rival nor excludible – and this changes the entire picture.	但我们在信息时代所生产的许多东西既不具有竞争性，也不具有排他性——这改变了整个局面。


The creation of information-age goods is difficult to incentivize; their distribution is hard to monetize; and we lack the tools to track them easily in national accounts.	信息时代商品的制造很难施加激励； 它们的分配也难以货币化；


The result is an ever-growing discrepancy between what people would be willing to pay for a given service and growth as measured in national statistics.	我们也缺乏工具在国民账户中轻易地追踪它们。 结果是人们愿意为给定服务所支付的数量与国民统计所测量的增长之间的差异越来越大。


In other words, we are producing and consuming much more than our economic indicators suggest – and the creators of many of those products are not being adequately compensated.	换句话说，我们生产和消费的数量比经济指标所显示的规模大得多——而许多这些产品的额制造者没有获得充分的报偿。


This produces a set of unique problems.	这就带来了一系列独特的问题。


To ensure that the workers of today and tomorrow are able to capture the benefits of the information age will require us to redesign our economic system to stimulate the creation of these new types of commodities.	为了确保今天和明天的工人能够获得信息时代的好处，我们就必须重新设计经济制度以刺激这些新型商品的创造。


In addition to developing ways to account for this new type of wealth, we will have to develop channels through which demand for a product contributes to the income of its creator.	除了找到记录这一新型财富的方法，我们还需要找到将让产品需求有利于创造者收入的渠道。


Only by finding ways to put true value on the goods we produce will we be able to sustain a middle-class society, rather than one of techno-plutocrats and their service-sector serfs.	只有找到能准确衡量我们所制造的商品的额价值的方法，我们才能维持中产阶级社会，而不至于出现由技术大亨和他们的服务业农奴组成的社会。


The New Brain Drain in Science	科研领域新一轮人才流失


DUBAI – In December 2013, the Nobel laureate physicist Peter Higgs told The Guardian that if he were seeking a job in academia today, “I don’t think I would be regarded as productive enough.”	迪拜——2013年12月，诺贝尔物理学奖得主彼得·希格斯在接受卫报采访时表示，如果他今天在学术界求职，“我恐怕不会被认为是最高效的。


Having published fewer than ten papers since his groundbreaking work in 1964, Higgs believes that no university would employ him nowadays.	”因为在1964年发表突破之作后迄今为止仅发表过不到十篇论文，希格斯认为今天没有哪家大学会雇佣他。


Academics are well acquainted with the notion of “publish or perish.”	“出版或者毁灭”是当今学者熟悉的概念。


They must publish their work in peer-reviewed journals increasingly often to climb the career ladder, protect their jobs, and secure funding for their institutions.	他们必须越来越多地在同行评议杂志上发表作品，才能攀登职业阶梯、保住工作岗位和为所在机构争取研究经费。


But what happens to scientists and other scholars, such as those in the Middle East, who have different research concerns from – and scant connections to – the professional journals that can make or break an academic/scientific career?	但那些研究重点迥异且与今天能造就或毁灭学术/科研生涯的专业期刊鲜有联系的科学家和其他学者（比方说中东学者）又该怎么办？


Scholars and institutions with high publishing rates in the established journals receive better productivity scores, which translate into bigger rewards, in terms of enhanced careers and greater research funding.	在著名期刊拥有高出版率的学者和科研机构效率得分较高，进而在职业生涯发展和研究经费支持方面得到更多奖励。


Whether the work they are publishing has a measurable impact on their field of study is, sadly, too often a secondary concern.	但可悲的是，他们所发表的作品对所在研究领域能否产生可以度量的影响却往往不那么被外界关注。


The incentives they face mean that quantity often comes before quality.	他们所面临的激励机制意味着数量往往比质量重要。


Academic journals determine the various disciplinary rankings that academic institutions are compelled to climb, which leads institutions to hire and retain only those scholars who can produce at high rates.	学术期刊决定科研机构被动研究的学科领域排名，从而导致科研机构仅仅雇佣并保留那些高效率的学者。


This has given rise to a deeper, twofold problem: academic journals have become disproportionately influential, and they have placed a premium on empirical research.	由此导致了更深层次的双重问题：学术期刊的影响力已经过于庞大，而且它们过分鼓励实证研究。


With respect to the first problem, journals are gradually replacing institutions as the arbiters of quality within academic communities.	在第一个问题上，期刊正逐步取代科研机构成为学术成果质量的评判者。


Scholars in almost any discipline seeking jobs at “A-level” institutions must publish in a select few A-level journals that are seen as gateways.	几乎任何领域想在“A级”研究机构求职的学者都必须在几本被公认为入门通道的A级杂志上发表研究成果。


These journals’ editorial boards increasingly privilege positivist theoretical work – meaning research that is based on empirical data analysis.	上述期刊的编辑委员会越来越偏爱实证主义理论研究作品——也就是说以实证数据分析为基础的研究。


Qualitative research – such as ethnographies, participatory surveys, and case studies – is often designated as suitable only for B- and C-level journals.	定性研究——如民族志、参与性调查和案例研究等——往往被定性为只适合B级或C级期刊发表。


Academics conducting empirical research have a big advantage over those carrying out qualitative work, because they can use efficient software and powerful computers to test their hypotheses quickly and account for different variables in data sets.	相比那些从事定性研究的学者，从事实证研究的学者优势非常显著。 因为他们可以使用高效软件和功能强大的电脑来快速测试假设，并计算数据集中不同变量的影响。


This kind of work can be cheaper, too, because a single data set can generate multiple journal articles.	此类工作也可以降低成本，因为单个数据集可以产出多篇期刊文章。


To be sure, there is nothing wrong with scientific practices evolving along with technology, or with academics using richer data sets and better software.	可以肯定，科学实践随技术演进、抑或学术界使用更丰富的数据集和更先进的软件都属于正常现象。


But adoption of this quantitative approach should not be the single most important criterion for assessing scientific excellence and deciding career trajectories.	但这种定量方法的采用不应成为评估科学卓越性和决定职业轨迹的唯一重要的衡量指标。


After all, knowledge is acquired in different ways, and empirical positivism is only one method in a larger epistemological inventory.	毕竟知识是以不同方式取得的，而经验实证主义仅仅是广义认识论宝库中的一项法则。


The positivist trend in science today is particularly problematic for developing countries, where data sets are scarce and often of poor quality.	今天的实证主义趋势对发展中国家而言问题尤为严重，因为发展中国家不仅数据集稀缺，而且往往质量较差。


Thus, scientists working in developing countries face a dilemma: either work on rich-world problems for which there is abundant data, or risk career advancement by conducting qualitative work that will not make it into A-level journals.	因此，在发展中国家工作的科学家们面临着囚徒困境：或者研究有着丰富数据的富裕国家问题，或者甘冒职业生涯之险而进行无缘进入A级期刊的定性研究。


Academics who move from data-rich countries in Europe and North America to data-poor countries in the Middle East and elsewhere often face this problem.	从欧洲和北美等数据丰富国家迁往中东等数据贫乏国家的学者往往面临着这样的问题。


As researchers at my institution in Abu Dhabi know, conducting surveys for qualitative research is feasible; but generating rich data from scratch for theory-building research is extremely difficult.	正如阿布扎比我所在科研机构的研究人员所知的那样，采集调研数据用于进行定性研究尚属可行； 但从零开始搜集理论建设研究所需的丰富数据却是极其困难的。


At the International Conference on Science and Technology Indicators this year, a French academic researching soil in Africa reported that only 5% of the published work in his field has originated from African researchers.	在今年召开的科学技术指标国际���议上，一位研究非洲土壤的法国学者报告在他所研究的领域，仅有5%的出版作品来自非洲研究者。


When he dug deeper into his own research, he found that 50% of what he had learned about African soil came from African researchers, who have not or could not publish their work in international academic journals.	但当他深入研究自己的研究成果时，却发现他对非洲土壤的认识有50%来自非洲研究者，而这些研究人员的成果没有也不可能在国际学术期刊上发表。


Countries where English is not the lingua franca are particularly disadvantaged in science, not because they lack academic excellence, but because English-language journals call the shots.	英语不是通用语的国家在科研方面处境尤其不利，这绝非因为他们学术科研水平不高，而是因为科学界由英语期刊来扮演发号施令的角色。


Non-English academic journals simply do not command the same attention in the science community.	非英语学术期刊在科学界根本得不到同样的关注。


As a result, the scope of research topics that many countries can undertake is limited, and they must struggle to retain scientific talent.	结果导致许多国家可以进行的研究课题范围有限，因此必须拼尽全力才能将科研人才留在本国。


This is particularly true in the Middle East, where governments are struggling to diversify their economies, in order to make them more resilient.	中东地区的情况尤其如此，各国政府正努力实现经济多样化，从而使国民经济适应性得到提高。


As English-language empirical-research journals consolidate their hold on the channels that determine whether or not a scientist will have a successful career, developing countries will have to invest heavily in their own data infrastructure to place domestic researchers on a more competitive footing.	因为英语实证研究期刊进一步增强了对科学家能否取得职业成功渠道的控制，发展中国家必须大量投资于国内数据基础设施，才能使国内研究人员处在更具竞争力的科研地位上。


But even – or especially – if developing countries do make such investments, much will be lost to science.	但即使——或者尤其——如果发展中国家确实进行这样的投资，将给科研领域造成非常严重的后果。


With (mostly) United States-based academic journals reigning over global science, no one has to move to become part of a new brain drain, whereby scientists’ research priorities, problems, and methods gravitate to the dominant positivist epistemology, at the expense of all alternatives.	因为统治全球科学的学术期刊（多数）来自美国，科学家不用实际迁移就会成为新人才流失的组成部分，科学家的研究重点、问题和方法将会牺牲其他选择而转向目前占主导地位的实证主义认识研究。


Polluters Must Pay	污染者必须负责


NEW YORK – When BP and its drilling partners caused the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the United States government demanded that BP finance the cleanup, compensate those who suffered damages, and pay criminal penalties for the violations that led to the disaster.	发自纽约——当英国石油公司及其搭档瑞士越洋钻探公司于2010年在墨西哥湾引发“深水地平线”漏油事故时，美国政府不但要求英国石油公司承担油污清理费用，赔偿受害者损失，还要为导致此次灾难的违规行为接受刑事处罚。


BP has already committed more than $20 billion in remediation and penalties.	英国石油公司已经为该事故调拨了200多亿美元用于善后补救工作和交纳罚金。


Based on a settlement last week, BP will now pay the largest criminal penalty in US history – $4.5 billion.	根据上周达成的协议，英国石油公司将支付美国历史上最大的一 笔刑事罚款——45亿美元。


The same standards for environmental cleanup need to be applied to global companies operating in poorer countries, where their power has typically been so great relative to that of governments that many act with impunity, wreaking havoc on the environment with little or no accountability.	同样的环境事故清理善后标准也应运用到那些在贫困国家经营的国际企业身上。 这些大公司的势力相对当地政府来说通常极为巨大，以致许多公司都是在豁免权下活动，可以对环境造成严重破坏却极少或无需承担责任。


As we enter a new era of sustainable development, impunity must turn to responsibility.	随着我们进入一个可持续发展的新时代，豁免权应该转向责任制。


Polluters must pay, whether in rich or poor countries.	不管是在富国还是穷国，污染者必须付出代价。


Major companies need to accept responsibility for their actions.	大公司应该为它们的行为承担相应的责任。


Nigeria has been Exhibit A of corporate environmental impunity.	尼日利亚就曾经是企业逍遥于环境污染惩罚之外的例子。


For decades, major oil companies, including Shell, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, have been producing oil in the Niger Delta, an ecologically fragile environment of freshwater swamp forests, mangroves, lowland rainforests, and coastal barrier islands.	几十年来，包括壳牌、埃克森美孚和雪弗龙在内的各大石油公司一直在尼日尔三角洲开采石油。 尼日尔三角洲是一个拥有淡水沼泽森林、红树林、低地雨林和沿海屏障岛屿的脆弱生态环境。


This rich habitat supports remarkable biodiversity – or did before the oil companies got there – and more than 30 million local inhabitants, who depend on the local ecosystems for their health and livelihoods.	这片肥沃富饶的栖息地支撑着非凡的生物多样性——或者说在石油公司来破坏之前是这样的——而当地3000多万居民的健康和生计都依赖于该生态系统。


Twenty years ago, the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources classified the Niger Delta as a region of high biodiversity of marine and coastal flora and fauna – tree species, fish, birds, and mammals, among other forms of life – and therefore rated it as a very high priority for conservation.	二十年前，世界自然保护联盟把尼日尔三角洲分类为一个拥有极丰富海洋及沿海动植物多样性的地区——不同树种、鱼类、鸟类和哺乳类与其他形式的生命共处一地——因此将其列为极高的优先保护等级。


Yet it also noted that the region’s biodiversity was under massive threat, with little or no protection.	然而该联盟也指出，由于这个地区极少或未被保护，其生物多样性正处于巨大的威胁之中。


The global companies operating in the delta have spilled oil and flared natural gas for decades, without regard for the natural environment and the communities impoverished and poisoned by their actions.	在尼日尔三角洲经营的跨国石油企业几十年来一直在该地区泄漏石油及燃烧天然气，根本不考虑自然环境和因其行为而变得贫困甚至遭受毒害的人类社区。


One estimate puts the cumulative spills over the past 50 years at approximately 10 million barrels – twice the size of the BP spill.	一份研究估计宣称过去50年中这些公司累积泄漏的石油约为1000万桶——这是英国石油公司漏油量的2倍。


The data are uncertain: there have been many thousands of spills during this period – often poorly documented and their magnitude hidden or simply unmeasured by either the companies or the government.	该数据并不准确：过去的50年中有好几千次石油溢出事故——通常这些事故都未被详细记录，其石油泄漏量常常被掩盖甚至被公司及政府故意忽略。


Indeed, just as BP was being hit with new criminal penalties, ExxonMobil announced yet another pipeline leak in the Niger Delta.	确实，正当英国石油公司遭受新的刑事处罚时，埃克森美孚又通报了一起位于尼日尔三角洲的石油管道泄漏事件。


The environmental destruction of the delta is part of a larger saga: corrupt companies operating hand in hand with corrupt government officials.	三角洲的环境破坏只是一长串事件中的一部分：腐败的公司与腐败的政府官员相互勾结以牟取私利。


The companies routinely bribe officials to gain oil leases, lie about output, evade taxes, and dodge responsibility for the environmental damage that they cause.	公司通常贿赂政府官员以获取石油合同，它们谎报产量，偷税漏税，逃避由其经营活动引起的环境损害的责任。


Nigerian officials have become fabulously wealthy, owing to decades of payoffs by international companies that have plundered the delta’s natural wealth.	由于一直掠夺三角洲自然财富的跨国企业几十年来的贿赂，尼日利亚的政府官员变得惊人的富有。


Shell, the largest foreign operator in the Niger Delta, has been criticized repeatedly for its egregious practices and its unwillingness to be held to account.	壳牌——尼日尔三角洲最大的国外营运商——就屡次因其恶名昭彰的行为及不愿承担责任的态度而遭到外界批评。


Meanwhile, the local population has remained impoverished and beset by diseases caused by unsafe air, poisoned drinking water, and pollution in the food chain.	与此同时，当地居民却一直处于贫困状态，还被由不安全的空气、被污染的饮用水和食物链污染引起的疾病所困扰。


Local lawlessness has led to gang warfare and persistent illegal tapping into the pipelines to steal oil, leading to further massive oil spills and frequent explosions that kill dozens, including innocent bystanders.	当地违法行为已经引起了黑帮火拼以及层出不穷的管道偷油案件，这又进一步导致了大量石油泄漏事故并导致了造成大量人员死亡——包括许多无辜受殃者——的频繁爆炸事件。


In the colonial era, it was the official purpose of imperial power to extract wealth from the administered territories.	在殖民时期，从殖民领地攫取财富是帝国主义的官方意图。


In the post-colonial period, the methods are better disguised.	而在后殖民时期，这种意图有了更好的伪装。


When oil companies misbehave in Nigeria or elsewhere, they are protected by the power of their home countries.	当石油公司在尼日利亚或其他国家恣意妄为时，它们会受到母国政权保护。


Don’t mess with the companies, they are told by the United States and Europe.	美国及欧洲国家警告那些石油原产国：别找石油公司的麻烦。


Indeed, one of the largest bribes (a reputed $180 million) paid in recent times in Nigeria was by Halliburton, a company tightly intertwined with US political power.	确实，尼日利亚近期最大的一笔贿赂（外界普遍估计约1. 8亿美元）是由美国哈利伯顿公司支付的，而该公司与美国政界则有着错综复杂的关系。


(Dick Cheney went from being Halliburton’s CEO to the US vice presidency.)	（迪克·切尼就是从哈利伯顿的首席执行官摇身一变成为美国副总统的。 ）


Last year, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) issued a remarkable report on Ogoniland, a major ethnic homeland in the Niger Delta that has been at the epicenter of conflict between local communities and international oil.	去年，联合国环境规划署发布了一份引人注目的奥贡尼兰报告，奥贡尼兰是一个曾经曾处于本地社区与跨国石油企业矛盾中心的尼日尔三角洲主要部族祖居地。


The report was as scathing as it was scientifically clear.	这份报告措辞严厉证据清晰。


Despite many past promises of a cleanup, Ogoniland remains in environmental agony, impoverished and sickened by the oil industry.	尽管过去石油公司作过很多关于清理的承诺，奥贡尼兰依旧处于恶劣的环境状况之下，该地区已经被石油产业榨干了财富而且疾病肆虐。


UNEP also offered clear and detailed recommendations, including emergency measures to ensure safe drinking water; cleanup activities targeting the mangroves and soils; public-health studies to identify and counteract the consequences of pollution; and a new regulatory framework.	联合国环境规划署同时还提供了清晰详细的建议，包括保证安全饮用水的紧急措施； 针对红树木和土壤的清除活动；


The world’s governments have recently agreed to move to a new framework for sustainable development, declaring their intention to adopt Sustainable Development Goals at the Rio+20 Summit in June.	世界各国政府在六月的“里约+20峰会”上宣布他们打算采用可持续发展目标，并于近期同意为了可持续发展接受新的监管框架。


The SDGs offer a critical opportunity for the world to set clear, compelling standards for government and corporate behavior.	可持续发展目标为全世界给政府及公司行为设定清晰强制的标准提供了一个关键的机会。


Many major companies, including in the oil industry, have expressed their readiness to support sustainable development goals.	包括石油产业在内的许多大公司都表达了他们支持可持续发展目标的意愿。


Cleaning up the Niger Delta would provide the strongest possible example of a new age of accountability.	清除尼日尔三角洲的石油污染将给新时代的问责制提供一个具备最大实施可能性的例子。


Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and other major oil companies should step forward and help to fund the necessary cleanup, ushering in a new era of responsibility.	壳牌、雪弗龙、埃克森美孚以及其他石油大公司应该站出来资助必要的石油污染清理，开创一个负责任的新时代。


The Nigerian government’s own accountability is on the line as well.	尼日利亚政府本身也有不可推卸的责任。


It is heartening that several Nigerian senators have recently been in the forefront of efforts to strengthen the rule of law in the oil sector.	令人鼓舞的是已经有几位尼日利亚参议员最近一直站在致力加强石油产业法治化的最前沿。


The cleanup of the Niger Delta provides an ideal opportunity for Nigeria, the oil industry, and the international community to show convincingly that a new age has dawned.	尼日尔三角洲的石油清理行动给尼日利亚、石油产业以及国际社会提供了一个理想的机会来向世界昭示——一个新的时代已经到来了。


From now on, sustainable development must not be a mere slogan, but rather an operational approach to global governance and well-being on a strained and crowded planet.	从现在开始，可持续发展不能纯粹只是一个口号，而应该是针对全球治理及在这个浮躁拥挤的星球上谋求幸福的运作方法。


A Centerless Euro Cannot Hold	缺少集中的欧元无法生存


CAMBRIDGE – With youth unemployment touching 50% in eurozone countries such as Spain and Greece, is a generation being sacrificed for the sake of a single currency that encompasses too diverse a group of countries to be sustainable?	美国剑桥—在西班牙和希腊等欧元区国家，年轻人失业率达到了50%，这可以说是为了在覆盖彼此差异太大而根本不可能持续的多国实行单一货币而牺牲了一代人吗？


If so, does enlarging the euro’s membership really serve Europe’s apparent goal of maximizing economic integration without necessarily achieving full political union?	如果答案是肯定的，扩大欧元区成员国范围真的有助于欧洲达到最大化经济一体化而又不必形成政治上的完全统一这一众人皆知的目标吗？


The good news is that economic research does have a few things to say about whether Europe should have a single currency.	好消息是，经济研究确实对欧洲是否应该使用单一货币这一问题形成了一些成果。


The bad news is that it has become increasingly clear that, at least for large countries, currency areas will be highly unstable unless they follow national borders.	坏消息是，越来越明显的是，至少对于大国，货币区是非常不稳定的，除非其边界和国境线相同。


At a minimum, currency unions require a confederation with far more centralized power over taxation and other policies than European leaders envision for the eurozone.	不管怎样，货币联盟至少需要是一个邦联，拥有比欧洲领导人的欧元区愿景远为集中的税收和其他政策权力。


What of Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell’s famous 1961 conjecture that national and currency borders need not significantly overlap?	那么，如何看待诺贝尔奖获得者蒙代尔1961年的著名预言呢？ 蒙代尔说，国境线和货币边界并不需要大致重合。


In his provocative American Economic Review paper “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” Mundell argued that as long as workers could move within a currency region to where the jobs were, the region could afford to forgo the equilibrating mechanism of exchange-rate adjustment.	在他发表于《美国经济评论》（American Economic Review）的雄文《最优货币区理论》（A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas）中，蒙代尔指出，只要工人能在货币区内自由流动追逐工作，该货币区就可以形成一个汇率调整的均衡机制。


He credited another (future) Nobel Prize winner, James Meade, for having recognized the importance of labor mobility in earlier work, but criticized Meade for interpreting the idea too stringently, especially in the context of Europe’s nascent integration.	蒙代尔将对劳动流动性的重要性的认识归功于另一位（未来）诺贝尔奖获得者米德，但也指出，米德对这一观点的解释太过严格，特别是在欧洲一体化刚刚出现萌芽的时候。


Mundell did not emphasize financial crises, but presumably labor mobility is more important today than ever.	蒙代尔并未强调金融危机，但他推测劳动流动性在今日要比过去更重要。


Not surprisingly, workers are leaving the eurozone’s crisis countries, but not necessarily for its stronger northern region.	毫不奇怪，工人们正在离开欧元区危机国，但迁移目标并非一定是更坚挺的北欧地区。


Instead, Portuguese workers are fleeing to booming former colonies such as Brazil and Macau.	事实上，葡萄牙工人正在逃向繁荣的昔日殖民地，比如巴西和澳门。


Irish workers are leaving in droves to Canada, Australia, and the United States.	爱尔兰工人正在迁往加拿大、澳大利亚和美国。


Spanish workers are streaming into Romania, which until recently had been a major source of agricultural labor in Spain.	西班牙工人正在涌向罗马尼亚，而后者以前一直是西班牙农业劳动力的主要来源。


Still, if intra-eurozone mobility were anything like Mundell’s ideal, today we would not be seeing 25% unemployment in Spain while Germany’s unemployment rate is below 7%.	尽管如此，如果欧元区内部流动性能够与蒙代尔的理想状况略有相似，那么如今我们就不会看到西班牙失业率高达25%而德国失业率低至不到7%的情况。


Later writers came to recognize that there are other essential criteria for a successful currency union, which are difficult to achieve without deep political integration.	后来的研究者开始认识到成功的货币联盟还���要其他关键要素，而这些要素在没有深度政治一体化的情况下很难实现。


Peter Kenen argued in the late 1960’s that without exchange-rate movements as a shock absorber, a currency union requires fiscal transfers as a way to share risk.	柯南（Peter Kenen）在20世纪60年代末指出，如果没有汇率变动作为冲击吸收器，货币联盟就需要财政转移来作为分担风险的办法。


For a normal country, the national income-tax system constitutes a huge automatic stabilizer across regions.	在平常国家，国民所得税嫡系便是一个巨型地区级自动稳定器。


In the US, when oil prices go up, incomes in Texas and Montana rise, which means that these states then contribute more tax revenue to the federal budget, thereby helping out the rest of the country.	在美国，当油价上涨时，德克萨斯州和蒙大拿州的收入会上升，这意味着该两州将向联邦预算贡献更多的税收收入，从而帮助美国的其余地区走出困境。


Europe, of course, has no significant centralized tax authority, so this key automatic stabilizer is essentially absent.	当然，欧洲不存在大型中央税收当局，因此这一重要自动稳定器也就不存在了。


Some European academics tried to argue that there was no need for US-like fiscal transfers, because any desired degree of risk sharing can, in theory, be achieved through financial markets.	一些欧洲学者试图论证像美国那样的财政转移并不是必须的，因为从理论上说，不管你想要多大程度的风险共担，都可以通过金融市场达到。


This claim was hugely misguided.	这一论断大错特错。


Financial markets can be fragile, and they provide little capacity for sharing risk related to labor income, which constitutes the largest part of income in any advanced economy.	金融市场可能非常脆弱，所提供的分担劳动收入相关风险能力几乎为零，而劳动收入是发达国家收入的最大来源。


Kenen was mainly concerned with short-term transfers to smooth out cyclical bumpiness.	柯南主要关心的是短期转移可以平滑周期性起伏。


But, in a currency union with huge differences in income and development levels, the short term can stretch out for a very long time.	但是，在一个收入和发展水平差异巨大的货币联盟中，“短期”所经历的时间可能非常长。


Many Germans today rightly feel that any system of fiscal transfers will morph into a permanent feeding tube, much the way that northern Italy has been propping up southern Italy for the last century.	许多德国人如今正确地感受到，任何财政转移系统都有可能兑变为持久的饲管，正如上个世纪意大利北部对意大利南部的不断输血。


Indeed, more than 20 years on, Western Germans still see no end in sight for the bills from German unification.	事实上，德国统一20多年来，西德仍然看不到统一的成本什么时候才是个头。


Later, Maurice Obstfeld pointed out that, in addition to fiscal transfers, a currency union needs clearly defined rules for the lender of last resort.	再后来，奥布斯菲尔德（Maurice Obstfeld）指出，除了财政转移，货币联盟还需要有明确定义的最后贷款人规则。


Otherwise, bank runs and debt panics will be rampant.	否则的话，银行挤兑和债务恐慌将会泛滥。


Obstfeld had in mind a bailout mechanism for banks, but it is now abundantly clear that one also needs a lender of last resort and a bankruptcy mechanism for states and municipalities.	奥布斯菲尔德构想了一个银行救助机制，但现在，显而易见的是，国家和自治地区也需要最后贷款人和破产机制。


A logical corollary of the criteria set forth by Kenen and Obstfeld, and even of Mundell’s labor-mobility criterion, is that currency unions cannot survive without political legitimacy, most likely involving region-wide popular elections.	从柯南和奥布斯菲尔德所提出的前提出发，甚至即使从蒙代尔的劳动流动性前提看，一个符合逻辑的推论是，货币联盟不可能在没有政治合法性——最有可能的形式是地区级的大选——的前提下生存。


Europe’s leaders cannot carry out large transfers across countries indefinitely without a coherent European political framework.	没有凝聚性的欧洲政治框架，欧洲领导人就不可能无限度地在各国间实现大规模转移。


European policymakers today often complain that, were it not for the US financial crisis, the eurozone would be doing just fine.	如今，欧洲决策者经常抱怨说，要不是美国金融危机，欧元区根本不会遭殃。


Perhaps they are right.	也许这么说并不错。


But any financial system must be able to withstand shocks, including big ones.	但金融体系必须能够抵御冲击，即使是剧烈冲击。


Europe may never be an “optimum” currency area by any standard.	欧洲也许从来都不是一个“最优”货币区，不管从什么角度看都是如此。


But, without further profound political and economic integration – which may not end up including all current eurozone members – the euro may not make it even to the end of this decade.	但是，如果没有更加深远的政治和经济一体化——也许最终无法将所有当前欧元区成员国纳入进来——可能连这个十年都撑不过。


Achieving a “Europe of Results”	建设“以成果为导向的欧洲”


BRUSSELS – The tsunami that has swept across financial markets is a global catastrophe.	发自布鲁塞尔——席卷全球的金融海啸无疑是场巨大的灾难。


If handled correctly, however, the crisis may yet raise the esteem of the European Union and its institutions.	但如果处理得当的话，这场危机反而能为欧盟及其下属机构赢来人们的重视与敬重。


The EU’s legitimacy problem has two different aspects: apathy, leading to a low turnout in the European parliamentary elections, and outright euro-skepticism.	毫无疑问，欧盟一直被其和合法性问题困扰着，而此问题则来自两方面：首先是人们的漠视，这导致了欧洲议会选举低下的投票率，还有就是那些彻底反对欧盟和欧元的怀疑论调。


The voter-turnout problem partly reflects frustration about the present state of the EU, and also people’s impression that they can exert little influence by voting one way or the other.	低投票率在某个侧面体现了民众对欧盟目前状况的挫折感，在他们看来无论选谁，自己这一票都微不足道。


Euro-skepticism, on the other hand, and the looming threat of anti-European populism, is directly linked to the idea that the EU is not merely incapable of offering a solution to the crisis, but in fact is part of the problem.	而在另一方面，欧盟怀疑论以及反欧盟民粹主义的兴起，则直接与另一种想法有关：那就是欧盟非但不能为危机提供解决方案，连其本身都是问题的始作俑者。


So, although the EU represents our best hope of ensuring that Europe is internationally competitive in today’s increasingly difficult environment, it is actually being blamed for globalization.	因此即便欧盟体现了我们为确保欧洲在日渐艰难的时势中保持竞争力的良好愿望，它依然受到“为危机全球化推波助澜”的指责。


Many people confuse these two aspects of the EU’s legitimacy problem, and believe that somehow turnout in European elections can be increased by pointing out to people how good and important the EU is.	许多人混淆了欧盟合法性的这两方面问题，并坚信只要能劝服民众说欧盟有多好、有多重要，就能让欧洲议会选举投票率有所提升。


But in most cases, this is not possible.	但在绝大多数情况下，这条路根本没行不通。


At first sight, the easiest answer to the problem of low voter turnout is to give more power to the European Parliament.	照“拍脑袋”简单一想的方法，提高投票率的最简单方法就是赋予欧洲议会更多的权力。


But if this was the solution, then we would not have had steadily declining turnouts since the high point of 63%, at the first elections to the European Parliament in 1979. After all, since then the EP’s influence and powers of joint decision-making have grown constantly.	但如果这也算解决方案的话，那就难以解释为什么欧洲议会的影响力和联合决策权在1979年第一次选举之后不断扩大，但投票率却在那次选举的63%高点上逐步下降的矛盾现实了。


The trouble is that, EP elections must be “about” something if voters are to be interested, which means they must involve a real choice.	问题在于，欧洲议会选举如果要吸引选民的话，那么它必须“言之有物”，让选民意识到自己确实在作出一个“实打实”的选择。


And a real choice requires Europe-wide election campaigns by all parties. This would also involve making the choice of the European Commission’s president dependent on the outcome of the EP elections.	而这样一个“实打实”的选择要求有全欧洲所有党派的竞选活动来共同组成，其中还包括让选民通过决定欧洲议会选举的结果来选定谁是欧盟委员会主席。


But, in fact, both of these conditions have already been met; in 2004, Portuguese Prime Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso was appointed President of the Commission because he came from the political organization with the strongest election result, the European People’s Party.	但其实上述这些条件其实早就达到了：在2004年，葡萄牙首相何塞·曼努埃尔·杜朗·巴罗佐就因其背后的政治组织“欧洲人民党团”在欧洲议会竞选中风头最劲而被任命为欧盟委员会主席。


And this year’s elections saw a more intensive presence of party organizations at European level than ever before.	而今年欧洲议会选举中此类欧洲层面上的党团势力也比以往更加集中地出现在人们眼前。


Instead, I believe that the most important way to reawaken voters’ interest in European elections will be to open up the election of the Commission’s President to them, and create a genuinely Europe-wide political debate during the next election campaign.	因此我相信，要唤起选民热情，最重要手段就是让他们直接选举欧盟委员会主席，还必须在下次欧洲议会竞选活动中，真正掀起一场覆盖全欧洲的政治大辩论。


The Euro-skepticism problem can be tackled only if the Union itself starts to perform better, and is seen to be doing so.	而欧洲怀疑论的冰释，只能在欧盟开始表现得更好，并似乎能一直保持努力进步之后才能达到。


That is why in the aftermath of the failed referenda four years ago in France and the Netherlands on the Constitutional treaty, the Commission tried to emphasize the idea of a “Europe of Results” that would seek to convince citizens of its worth through concrete achievements.	这也是为什么在对4年前欧盟宪法公投在法国和荷兰惨遭滑铁卢的事实进行了检讨之后，欧盟委员会就开始强调“以成果为导向的欧洲”这一理念，并试图用看得见摸得着的政绩去让人们明白欧盟的价值。


Given the gravity of the economic crisis, the time has come for the EU to demonstrate its strengths whenever possible.	考虑到经济危机的巨大影响力，是时候让欧盟尽可能地展现自己的力量了。


The aim must be not only to win back the hearts of Europeans who have become skeptical, but also to convince them that the Union is indispensable to meeting the challenges Europeans face.	而这些努力的目标不仅是赢回那些满腹狐疑的欧洲人的心，更要让他们确信：欧盟这个组织在应对当前挑战方面是不可或缺的。


Europe’s citizens understand that the relatively small nation-states that make up the EU are no longer able to face these enormous challenges on their own.	欧洲的公民们已经意识到，欧盟内部那些相对较小的国家早已无力独自应对这些巨大挑战。


In Ireland, last autumn’s financial crisis provoked a turnaround in public opinion about the EU, and even in Iceland, although it lies on the periphery of our continent, membership of the EU and the euro have become a priority.	在爱尔兰，去年夏天的金融危机让人们对欧盟的态度发生了180度的转向，甚至连一向游离于欧洲大陆之外的冰岛，欧盟成员国资格和欧元也被放在了首位。


European countries have become so interconnected that isolated national measures on issues like financial-market regulation are hopeless.	欧洲国家的利益是如此盘根错节地交织在一起，以至于那些试图用孤立的国家政策来应对金融市场规管问题的手段都变得一无是处。


A changing world in which new powers like China and India play an increasingly important role will not wait for Europe to make up its mind.	世界正在变化，中国和印度这类新兴强权正日渐扮演更重要的角色，它们可等不及欧洲去打自己的小算盘。


The EU must instead show leadership through its efforts to solve the world’s current problems.	因此欧盟必须通过解决当今世界问题的一系列努力来显示其领导地位。


As for the European People’s Party, for us the economy is not an end in itself but should serve the people.	而对于我所属的欧洲人民党团来说，经济体系的存在目的不是为自身谋利，而是服务大众。


The economic crisis was caused by shortsightedness and a lack of control in the global financial system. Now we must redefine the role of regulators in financial markets and in the wider economy, for we cannot let the financial sector walk off with the profits and leave taxpayers bearing the losses.	目前这场经济危机源自于目光短浅的行为以及全球金融系统的管制不力，因此我们必须重新定义在金融市场和更宏观经济中规管者所需扮演的角色，因为我们不能让金融部门一面把利润塞满自己的口袋，另一面却叫纳税人来承担损失。


That doesn’t mean that we are advocating a move to socialism; we want better and smarter regulation, not regulation for its own sake.	这并不意味着我们鼓吹社会主义； 监管必须更好和更明智，而不是为监管而监管。


We see five keys to recovery:	而下面五点则是经济复原的关键：


New job creation must be a core priority, with reform and investment in education and life-long learning necessary to create opportunity for all;	创造新职位的决策是首要核心，通过在教育和终身学习方面进行改革和投资，为所有人创造工作机会；


A “Europe of Results” is achievable.	一个“以成果为导向的欧洲”是可以实现的。


It can strengthen the EU’s legitimacy, though, only if policy recommendations such as these, and the successes that result from implementing them, are communicated clearly and effectively to the general public.	只要我们能向公众清晰有效地说明上述政策建议，并在实际执行中取得成功，那么欧盟合法性的增强，就必然会得以实现。


A Clarion Call for Emerging Markets	新兴市场的号角


ITHACA – With 2012 underway, it is worth reflecting on how a decade of strong economic growth in emerging markets led to last year’s resounding political transformations.	伊萨卡—步入2012年之际，我们值得思考一下新兴市场的十年强劲经济增长是如何引发去年波涛汹涌的政治转型的。


From the dramatic events in the Middle East, to the groundswell of support for the anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare in India, leaders in emerging markets are getting a clear message from the streets that growth is not everything.	从中东的戏剧性事件，到印度人民对安纳·哈扎尔（Anna Hazare）反腐行动山呼海啸的支持，街头运动站在向新兴市场的领导人传递一个清晰的信号，光有增长是不够的。


They ignore this message at their peril.	忽视这个信号必将付出代价。


Emerging-market economies delivered solid growth during the 2000’s, and even survived the global financial crisis without a growth collapse.	21世纪的第一个十年，新兴市场经济体稳步增长，甚至连全球金融危机都没有阻止它们。


But the specter of rising corruption is compromising the legitimacy of their economic gains and eroding support for further reforms needed to sustain their growth momentum.	但伴随着经济利益一同出现的是腐败横行，而腐败横行动摇着人们对维持增长势头所必须的深入改革的支持。


Corruption takes many forms, but, in emerging markets, a combination of factors has turned it into a cancer that ultimately topples regimes.	腐败有多种形式，但是，在新兴市场，多种因素的合力正在形成最终颠覆现有体制的癌症。


Relentless low-level corruption is a major irritant for poor people in many of these countries; indeed, it limits their access to the social services and basic government functions that they often depend upon for their very survival.	在这些国家中，肆无忌惮的低层次腐败激怒着贫困人口； 事实上，低层次腐败让贫困人口无法获得他们赖以生存的社会服务和基本政府功能。


Another type of corruption involves siphoning enormous sums of money from large-scale projects.	另一种腐败是从大规模项目中捞取巨额回扣。


In India, for example, the government lost as much as $30-40 billion of much-needed revenue when coveted band spectrum was sold through a rigged auction.	比如，在印度，供不应求的频谱通过拍卖发售，而拍卖是被操纵的，政府因此要损失高达300—400亿美元的收入。


For ordinary people, large-scale corruption is less visible, because, while the sums involved are mind-boggling, the costs are not as directly felt as they are in the case of lower-level graft.	对普通民众来说，大规模腐败不一定看得见，因为，尽管涉案数量大到令人咋舌，但其成本并不像低层次腐败那样能让他们直接感受到。


But the perception of this type of mega-corruption has changed as rapid growth has increased inequality.	但随着快速增长加剧了不平等性，人们对这类大规模腐败的感知也发生了变化。


In countries like China and India, rapid economic growth has lifted a huge number of people out of poverty.	在中国和印度等国家，快速的经济增长让大量人民摆脱了贫困。


But the fruits of globalization and rapid growth have not been evenly shared – the rich become super-rich, even as a large fraction of the population remains destitute.	但全球化和快速增长带来的好处并不是均匀分布的，富人变得愈加富有了，而大部分人民仍在贫困状态中挣扎。


Rising income inequality is hardly limited to emerging markets, but their combination of open corruption and pervasive inequities creates a toxic brew that is undermining support for reforms that would strengthen and consolidate their economic gains.	收入不平等恶化的问题绝不仅限于新兴市场，但公开腐败和普遍的不公相结合就造成了一股暗流，破坏了人们对增进和巩固经济利益所需要的改革的支持。


In many emerging markets, a lack of political freedom adds to the combustible mix.	在许多新兴市场国家，缺乏政治自由在给问题火上浇油。


The combination of corruption, inequality, and political repression builds up enormous pressure, and there are no institutional channels through which to release it.	腐败、不公加上政治压迫造成了巨大的压力，而且没有发泄这种压力的制度性渠道。


But freer political regimes are not a panacea.	但政治自由也不是万灵丹。


In a democracy like India’s, the politically well-connected benefit from skewed growth, thus increasing the resentment of those left behind.	在印度这样的民主国家，在政治上有关系者从有缺陷的增长中捞到了巨大的好处，而没有捞到好处者怨声载道。


The opportunity to “throw the rascals out” in each election cycle helps to let off some steam, but it does not resolve the problems that are generating it.	在每个选举周期中，人民都有一次“让混蛋滚蛋”的机会，这在一定程度上减轻了压力，但并没有根除造成这一现象的问题。


It is difficult to predict what triggers popular protest, but economic factors are key.	很难预测什么会触发群众游行，但经济因素是关键的。


For example, rising food prices tend to hurt the poor, especially the urban poor, who spend a large share of their income on food; unlike agricultural workers, they receive none of the benefits of higher food prices.	比如，食品价格上涨会伤害贫民，特别是城市贫民，他们收入中的一大块都花在了视频上； 而与农村劳动力不同，他们不能从食品价格上涨中获益。


With swelling urban populations, it will become increasingly difficult to keep a lid on these pressures.	随着城市人口的膨胀，减轻他们的压力将变得越来越困难。


Some governments have reacted to recent events with political repression, information blackouts, or a combination of authoritarian measures.	有的国家对最近发生的事件的反应是政治压迫、信息封锁或多种威权措施的综合。


China, for example, blocked media coverage of the Egyptian protests.	比如，中国就屏蔽了关于埃及示威的媒体报道。