But is there any reason to believe that the recovery will not be undermined by another five years of austerity, leading Osborne (or his successor) to postpone the deadline once again?	但有理由认为复苏不会因为又一个紧缩的五年而遇阻，导致奥斯本（或他的继任者）再次延长截止期？


We can all agree that what happens to the budget affects the economy.	我们也许都认为，预算影响经济。


But I would argue, as Keynes did, that “the boom, not the slump, is the time for austerity at the Treasury.”	但我得说，正如凯恩斯所指出的，“繁荣，而不是衰退，才是财政紧缩的时机。


To try to cut spending in a slump, as Osborne is doing, is to prolong the slump.	”像奥斯本一样在衰退时尝试削减支出只能延长衰退。


And, as he is learning, to his displeasure, that means postponing the day when the books will be balanced.	而他也正在领教——尽管不情不愿——这意味着延长预算实现平衡的日期。


Knowledge for Progress	进步知识


LONDON – Some 236 years ago, a young governor from the American state of Virginia broke the mold on education reform.	伦敦—大约236年前，一位年轻的美国弗吉尼亚州州长打破了教育改革的常规。


In his Bill for the More General Diffusion of Knowledge, Thomas Jefferson called for “a system of general instruction” that would reach all citizens, “from the richest to poorest.”	在《增进知识扩散法》（Bill for the More General Diffusion of Knowledge）中，托马斯·杰斐逊呼吁建设一个“通用教学制度”，该制度应普及“从最富裕到最贫穷”的所有公民。


It was the first step in the creation of the American system of public education – an institution that helped to propel the country’s rise to global prominence.	这是美国公共教育制度创造的滥觞，而教育制度推动美国崛起成为全球最强国家。


By the early twentieth century, the United States was a global leader in public schooling.	到二十世纪初，美国已成为全球公共学校教育领先者。


Investments in education provided a catalyst for economic growth, job creation, and increased social mobility.	教育投资成为经济增长、就业创造和社会流动性增加的催化剂。


As Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz have shown, it was American “exceptionalism” in education that enabled the country to steal a march on European countries that were under-investing in human capital.	克劳迪娅·戈丁（Claudia Goldin）和劳伦斯·卡茨（Lawrence Katz）指出，美国的教育“例外论”让其能够先发制人，领先在人力资本方面投资不足的欧洲国家。


As world leaders gather this week for the Oslo Summit on Education for Development, the lessons from this experience could not be more relevant.	本周，全球领导人将齐聚奥斯陆发展教育峰会（Oslo Summit on Education for Development），美国的经验教训无比重要。


In fact, with the global economy becoming increasingly knowledge-based, the education and skills of a country’s people are more important than ever in securing its future.	事实上，全球经济正日益向知识经济转变，一国人民的教育和技能对于保证国家未来的意义比以往任何时候都更加重大。


Countries that fail to build inclusive education systems face the prospect of sluggish growth, rising inequality, and lost opportunities in world trade.	不能建立包容性教育制度的国家将面临增长停滞、不平等性加剧以及失去世界贸易机会的风险。


In this context, some of today’s discussions on education sound curiously anachronistic.	在这样的背景下，如今某些关于教育的讨论令人哭笑不得。


Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann recently berated what he describes as the “education, education, education crowd” for advocating an “education-only” strategy for growth.	哈佛经济学家里卡多·豪斯曼（Ricardo Hausmann）最近抨击了他所谓的“教育、教育、教育大军”鼓吹“只有教育”的增长战略。


It was an impressive attack on a view that, to the best of my knowledge, nobody holds.	就我所知，没人支持这一观点，豪斯曼的抨击令人印象深刻。


Of course education is not an automatic route to growth.	当然，教育不是增长的自动发生器。


Expanding education in countries where institutional failure, poor governance, and macro-economic mismanagement stymie investment is a prescription for low productivity and high unemployment.	在制度失败、治理拙劣和宏观经济管理不善掣肘投资的国家扩大教育只能带来低生产率和高失业率。


In North Africa, the disharmony between the education system and the job market left young, educated people without decent opportunities – a situation that contributed to the revolutions of the Arab Spring.	在北非，教育制度和就业市场的不匹配导致受过良好教育的年轻人找不到体面的工作机会——这一局面催生了阿拉伯之春革命。


None of this detracts from the vital role of education – not just years of schooling, but genuine learning – as an essential component of growth.	但这并没有抹杀教育作为增长的关键要素的重要作用——不仅是在学校上学的那几年，而是真正的学习岁月。


Extensive research – from the work of Adam Smith to Robert Solow and Gary Becker and, most recently, Eric Hanushek – confirms the importance of learning in building productive human capital.	从亚当·斯密到罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）和加里·贝克尔（Gary Becker）以及最近的埃里克·哈努谢克（Eric Hanushek），大量研究确认，学习在打造生产性人力资本方面至关重要。


One step up the standard deviation score on the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment is associated with a 2% increase in a country’s long-run per capita growth rate.	经合组织国际学生评估项目（Program for International Student Assessment）标准差评分每前进一位，意味着���国增加2%的长期人均增长率。


Education may not be a quick fix for slow growth.	教育也许不是解决增长缓慢的速效药。


But try naming a country that has sustained an economic transformation without advances in education.	但找不到一个国家在教育不进步的情况下能够保持经济转型。


Economists at the World Bank have contributed a few straw men of their own to the education debate.	世界银行经济学家在教育争论中抛砖引玉。


In one contribution, Shanta Devarajan criticizes the view that education is an essential public good that governments should finance and deliver, arguing that it should instead be considered a private good, delivered through markets to customers – that is, parents and children – seeking private returns.	在其中一块“砖”中，尚塔·德瓦拉詹（Shanta Devarajan）批评了教育是应该由政府资助和提供的基本公共品的观点，他指出，教育应该被视为私有品，通过市场提供给寻求私人回报的客户（即家长和儿童）。


The problem is that education is self-evidently not a public good – in the real world, few things are.	问题在于教育不是公共品是不言自明的——在真实世界中，几乎没有东西是公共品。


It is, however, a “merit” good, something that governments should offer for free, because of the wide-ranging private and social returns that might be lost if parents underinvest, or if the poor are excluded.	但是，教育是一种“优点”商品，政府应该免费提供教育，因为如果家长在教育方面提供不足，或穷人被排斥在教育之外，将造成范围甚广的私人和社会损失。


For example, progress in education – especially girls’ education – is closely associated with improvements in child survival and nutrition, and maternal health, as well as higher wages.	比如，教育进步——特别是女孩教育——与儿童存活率和营养、产妇健康以及收入提高状况改善密切相关。


It is time to move beyond futile discussions based on flawed logic to focus on the real challenges in education – challenges that must be addressed, if we are to meet the Sustainable Development Goal of delivering high-quality primary and secondary education to all by 2030.	我们应该超越基于有缺陷的逻辑的清谈，将注意力集中到教育的真正挑战上——这些挑战必须得到解决，如果我们想实现2030年普及高质量小学和中学教育这一可持续发展目标的话。


The Oslo summit presents an important opportunity to lay the groundwork for success.	奥斯陆峰会是一次重要机会，能够为这一任务的成功奠定基础。


With 59 million primary school-age children and 65 million adolescents out of school, that opportunity should be seized with both hands.	5,900万小学学龄儿童和6,500万青少年游离在校园之外，因此我们必须紧紧抓住这次机会。


A successful summit would advance four key imperatives.	奥斯陆峰会的成功将促进四个关键方面。


First, governments must commit more domestic funds to education.	首先，政府应该拿出更多的本国资金用于教育。


One background paper for the summit highlights the failure of successive governments in Pakistan, which now has the world’s second-largest out-of-school population, to invest in education.	奥斯陆峰会的一份背景资料突显出巴基斯坦历任政府在教育投资方面的失败，导致巴基斯坦现在成为世界上辍学人口第二大的国家。


At the heart of the problem are politicians who are more interested in facilitating tax evasion by the wealthy than improving learning opportunities for the poor.	问题的核心是有些政客更热衷于方便富人逃税而不是改善穷人的学习机会。


Second, international donors must reverse the downward trend in aid for education.	其次，国际出资人必须扭转教育援助规模下降的趋势。


Even with an enhanced resource-mobilization effort, roughly $22 billion annually in aid will be needed to achieve universal lower-secondary education.	虽然资源动员努力有所加强，但每年仍需要220亿美元援助以实现全民初中教育。


That is around five times current levels.	这意味着目前的援助水平需要增加四倍。


Beyond closing the aid gap, United Nations Special Envoy on Education Gordon Brown has rightly called for financing mechanisms to deliver education to children affected by conflict and humanitarian emergencies.	除了填补援助缺口，联合国教育特使戈登·布朗（Gordon Brown）还正确地呼吁建立资金支持机制为受冲突和人道主义紧急状态影响的儿童提供教育。


Third, world leaders must get serious about inequality.	第三，世界领导人必须认真对待不平等性问题。


Every government should be setting targets aimed explicitly at narrowing education disparities – linked to gender, wealth, and the rural-urban divide – and aligning their budgets with those targets.	各国政府应该设立明确旨在缩小教育不公——包括性别、财富、城乡差距——的目标，并拨出预算用于这些目标。


As it stands, the disparities are huge.	目前，教育不公情况严重。


In Nigeria, for example, urban boys from the wealthiest 20% of households average ten years of schooling, while poor rural girls in northern areas can expect less than two years.	比如，在尼日利亚，最富裕的20%城市家庭的男孩平均能够接受10年的学校教育，而北部地区贫穷农村女孩只能接受不到两年的学校教育。


Yet, as another Oslo summit background paper shows, education finance is skewed toward the wealthy in most countries.	但是，另一份奥斯陆峰会背景资料表明，大部分国家的教育资金向富人倾斜。


Finally, governments and aid agencies must abandon market-based experiments, and commit to genuine system-wide reform.	最后，政府和援助机构必须抛弃基于市场的实验，而致力于真正的制度性改革。


One key priority area is teachers, who need strong incentives, effective training, and dependable support systems to deliver real learning.	一个重要的当务之急是教师，他们需要强大的激励、有效的培训和可靠的支持体系以普及真正的学习。


After all, an education system is only as good as its educators.	毕竟，教育制度的优劣取决于教育者。


As world leaders gather in Oslo, millions of parents will be struggling to ensure that their children receive the education they deserve – one that will enable them to build better lives for themselves and their families.	在世界领导人齐聚奥斯陆举行峰会的同时，数百万家长在为确保他们的孩子获得应该获得的教育而发愁——这些教育能让他们为自己和家庭赢得更好的生活。


For these parents, schooling is a source of hope.	对这些家长来说，学校教育是希望的源泉。


We owe them and their children our best efforts.	我们应该竭尽全力为他们和他们的孩子们提供帮助。


Lost in Transition	迷失在转型中


WASHINGTON, DC – Financial markets and the news media have one thing in common: they tend to oscillate rapidly between hype and gloom.	华盛顿—金融市场和新闻媒体有一个共同点：它们都喜欢兴奋和抑郁之间快速切换。


Nowhere is this more apparent than in analyses of emerging economies’ prospects.	最明显的莫过于对新兴经济体前景的分析了。


In the last few months, enthusiasm about these countries’ post-2008 economic resilience and growth potential has given way to bleak forecasts, with economists like Ricardo Hausmann declaring that “the emerging-market party” is coming to an end.	在过去几个月中，对这些国家在2008年后所体现出来的经济恢复力和增长潜力的热情已经让位给了悲观的预测，里卡多·豪斯曼（Ricardo Hausmann）等经济学家宣称“新兴市场派对”已近结束。


Many now believe that the recent broad-based growth slowdown in emerging economies is not cyclical, but a reflection of underlying structural flaws.	如今，许多人相信最近的信心经济体广泛增长减速不是周期性的，而是基础性结构缺陷的反映。


That interpretation contradicts those (including me) who, not long ago, were anticipating a switchover in the engines of the global economy, with autonomous sources of growth in emerging and developing economies compensating for the drag of struggling advanced economies.	这一解读与前不久预测全球经济引擎发生转换、新兴和发展中经济体自主增长源泉抵消麻烦重重的发达经济体的拖累的人（包括我）形成了鲜明对比。


To be sure, the baseline scenario for the post-crisis “new normal” has always entailed slower global economic growth than during the pre-2008 boom.	平心而论，后危机时期“新常态”的基础情景一直认为全球经济增长将不及2008年前的繁荣期。


For major advanced economies, the financial crisis five years ago marked the end of a prolonged period of debt-financed domestic consumption, based on wealth effects derived from unsustainable asset-price overvaluation.	对主要发达经济体来说，五年前的金融危机标志着债务融资国内消费长时期的终结，这一时期的基础是来自不可持续的资产价格高估的财富效应。


The crisis thus led to the demise of China’s export-led growth model, which had helped to buoy commodity prices and, in turn, bolster GDP growth in commodity-exporting developing countries.	因此，危机导致了中国的出口拉动经济模式萎靡不振，出口拉动模式有助于提振商品价格，而商品价格的上升反过来刺激了商品出口发展中国家的GDP增长。


Against this background, a return to pre-crisis growth patterns could not reasonably be expected, even after advanced economies completed the deleveraging process and repaired their balance sheets.	在这一背景下，预期回到危机前增长模式是不可能的，即使在发达国家完成了去杠杆化过程、修复了资产负债表之后也是如此。


But developing countries’ economic performance was still expected to decouple from that of developed countries and drive global output by finding new, relatively autonomous sources of growth.	但人们仍预期发展中国家的经济表现与发达国家脱钩并通过找到新的、相对而言更为自主的增长源推动全球产出。


According to this view, healthy public and private balance sheets and existing infrastructure bottlenecks would provide room for increased investment and higher total factor productivity in many developing countries.	根据这一观点，健康的公私部门资产负债表和现有基础设施瓶颈为许多发展中国家提供了增加投资、提高全要素生产率的空间。


Technological convergence and the transfer of surplus labor to more productive tradable activities would continue, despite the advanced economies’ anemic growth.	技术趋同和剩余劳动力转移到生产率更高的可贸易部门活动的过程将会继续，尽管发达经济体增长长期萎靡。


At the same time, rapidly growing middle classes across the developing world would constitute a new source of demand.	与此同时，在发展中世界快速崛起的中产阶级将形成新的需求源。


With their share of global GDP increasing, developing countries would sustain relative demand for commodities, thereby preventing prices from reverting to the low levels that prevailed in the 1980’s and 1990’s.	随着它们的全球全球GDP份额的升高，发展中国家将保持对商品的上对需求，从而阻止价格跌回20世纪八九十年代的低位。


Improvements in the quality of developing countries’ economic policies in the decade preceding the global financial crisis – reflected in the broad scope available to them in responding to it – reinforced this optimism.	发展中国家在全球金融危机爆发前十年的经济政策质量的改善——它们能游刃有余地应对金融危机就是明证——巩固了这一乐观看法。


Indeed, emerging countries have largely recognized the need for a comprehensive strategy, comprising targeted policies and deep structural reforms, to develop new sources of growth.	事实上，新兴国家大多已经认识到全面战略的需要，将定向政策与深层次结构性改革相协调，从而开发新的增长源。


It has become apparent, however, that emerging-market enthusiasts underestimated at least two critical factors.	但是，已趋明显的是新兴市场热衷者至少低估了两个关键因素。


First, emerging economies’ motivation to transform their growth models was weaker than expected.	首先，新兴经济体转变增长模式的动机不如预期强。


The global economic environment – characterized by massive amounts of liquidity and low interest rates stemming from unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies – led most emerging economies to use their policy space to build up existing drivers of growth, rather than develop new ones.	全球经济环境——其特征是发达经济体的非常规货币政策导致了大量流动性和低利率——让大部分新兴经济体用政策空间强化现有增长引擎，而不是开发新推动力。


But the growth returns have dwindled, while imbalances have worsened.	但增长回报已经变小，而失衡更加严重了。


Countries like Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey used the space available for credit expansion to support consumption, without a corresponding increase in investment.	俄罗斯、印度、巴西、南非和土耳其等国家将可用空间用于信用扩展以支持消费，而没有相应地增加投资。


China’s non-financial corporate debt increased dramatically, partly owing to dubious real-estate investments.	中国的非金融公司债务大幅增加，部分原因是可疑的房地产投资。


Moreover, nothing was done in anticipation of the end of terms-of-trade gains in resource-rich countries like Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa, which have been facing rising wage costs and supply-capacity limits.	此外，俄罗斯、巴西、印尼和南非等资源富裕国并没有在贸易条件优势消失前预先采取措施，这些国家一直面临工资成本增长和供给能力限制。


And fiscal weakness and balance-of-payments fragility have become more acute in India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey.	而印度、印尼、南非和土耳其的财政疲软和收支平衡脆弱性问题也变得日渐尖锐。


The second problem with emerging-economy forecasts was their failure to account for the vigor with which vested interests and other political forces would resist reform – a major oversight, given how uneven these countries’ reform efforts had been prior to 2008.	新兴经济体预测的第二个问题是没有考虑既得利益和其他政治势力对改革的抵制力——这是重大疏漏，因为这些国家在2008年以前的改革措施是非常不平均的。


The inevitable time lag between reforms and results has not helped matters.	改革和改革效果之间难免有时滞，而这一时滞对改革形势不利。


Nonetheless, while emerging economies’ prospects were clearly over-hyped in the wake of the crisis, the bleak forecasts that dominate today’s headlines are similarly exaggerated.	尽管如此，虽然新兴经济体的前景在危机背景下令人过度兴奋了，但主宰当今新闻标题的悲观预测也有显得过于夸张。


There are still a number of factors indicating that emerging economies’ role in the global economy will continue to grow – just not as rapidly or dramatically as previously thought.	许多因素仍然表明新兴经济体在全球经济中的作用将继续增强——只不过没有先前认为的那么快和猛罢了。


This summer, the mere suggestion of a monetary-policy reversal in the United States sparked a surge in bond yields, which triggered an asset sell-off in several major emerging economies.	今年夏天，美国仅仅是暗示要逆转货币政策就引发了债券收益率飙升，并导致不少主要新兴经济体的资产卖出潮。


Perhaps that experience will serve as a wake-up call for these countries’ leaders.	也许这一经验将成为这些国家领导人的当头棒喝。


Only by recognizing the weaknesses of old growth patterns and pursuing the needed structural reforms can emerging economies achieve strong, stable, and sustainable GDP growth – and fulfill their potential as the global economy’s main engines.	只有认识到旧增长模式的弱点、追求必须的结构性改革，新兴经济体才能获得强劲、稳定和可持续的GDP增长——并充分实现它们成为全球经济主要引擎的潜力。


The German Leadership Question	德国的领导问题


FRANKFURT – Many in the eurozone’s crisis countries complain that the source of their suffering is a rigid economic-austerity regime – including reductions in wages and pensions, tax increases, and soaring unemployment – imposed on them by Germany.	法兰克福—许多欧元区危机国抱怨说它们受罪的根源在于僵化的经济紧缩机制——包括降低工资和退休金、增税以及失业率飙升——而紧缩机制是德国加给它们的。


Hostility against Germany has reached a level unseen in Europe since the end of World War II.	欧洲国家对德国的敌意达到了自二战结束以来的最高水平。


And yet, despite this antagonism, loud calls for Germany to assume “leadership” in Europe can also be heard.	但是，尽管对立情绪升高，但我们仍能听到呼吁德国承担欧洲“领导”责任的声音。


Germany is undoubtedly Europe’s most important economy; and, with low unemployment and relatively sound public finances, it is also the best-performing one – at least for the time being.	毫无疑问，德国是欧洲最重要的经济体； 而其低失业和相对稳固的公共财政状况也表明它是表现最出色的经济体——至少目前是如此。


So Germany is asked to take the lead in saving the eurozone, an outcome that is in the interest not only of the entire European community, but also of Germany, which is widely seen as having gained the greatest advantage from the single currency.	因此，德国被要求在拯救欧元区方面起到领导作用，而这不仅符合整个欧洲社会的利益，也符合德国的利益，它被广泛视为从单一货币中获益最大的经济体。


Complaints about the imposition of a “teutonic regime” and appeals for German leadership seem to contradict each other – a kind of continent-wide cognitive dissonance.	关于强加“条顿制度”的抱怨和要求德国承担领导责任的呼声似乎自相矛盾——凸显出整个欧洲大陆都存在认知不协调。


In fact, the complaints and calls for leadership are mutually reinforcing.	事实上，抱怨和领导责任呼声是互相强化的。


The implementation of austerity policies in the periphery has caused these countries to ask for help and request that Germany take the lead by putting more money on the European table.	紧缩政策在外围的实施导致这些国家需要帮助并要求德国身先士卒，把钱拿到欧洲的台面上来。


Nobody would deny that Germany has an interest in preserving the euro.	没人会否认拯救欧元符合德国的利益。


So why shouldn’t it support its partners with financial help to overcome the crisis?	那么为何它不应该用金融援助支持伙伴国克服危机呢？


Such support can already be found via the various rescue mechanisms – above all, the European Stability Mechanism and the implicit guarantees of TARGET 2 – that have been erected since the crisis began.	这样的支持已经通过各种援助机制在进行了——首先是欧洲稳定机制（European Stability Mechanism）和TARGET 2的隐性担保——自危机肇始以来便是如此。


But these mechanisms must be distinguished from a regime of more or less automatic, permanent transfers.	但这些机制必须与或多或少是自动、持久的转移支付机制区分开来。


As long as a fully-fledged political union remains a vision for the future, fiscal transfers must be legitimized by national parliaments.	只要完全的政治联盟仍然只是未来愿景，财政转移支付就需要国家议会的批准。


For now – and probably for a long time to come – the eurozone will continue to be a union of sovereign states, with each country responsible for its own policies and for their outcome.	目前——并且可能在相当长的一段时间内都是如此——欧元区将继续是主权国家的联盟，每个国家都要为自身的政策及其后果负责。


The no-bailout clause that was included in the monetary union’s founding treaty is an indispensable corollary.	写入货币联盟创始条约的无援助条款是无法绕过的推论。


Eurobonds, for example, would not only create moral hazard; “taxation without representation” would also violate a fundamental tenet of democracy and undermine support for the European idea.	比如，欧元债券不但会造成道德风险； “无代表的纳税”还违反了民主的基本原则，不利于对欧洲思想的支持。


The creation of a European banking union is another area in which misguided calls for solidarity prevail.	建立欧洲银行联盟是另一���充斥着误导性团结诉求的领域。


Establishing a single supervisory authority and a resolution mechanism are valid proposals.	建立单一监督当局和清算机制是可靠的建议。


But asking others to pay for the legacy of banks’ past irresponsible practices is hard to justify.	但要其他国家来收拾银行过去不负责任的行为留下的烂摊子很难说得过去。


What would be the reaction if, say, Italian or Spanish taxpayers were asked to pay for the reckless behavior of the German IKB or HRE banks?	试想，如果意大利或西班牙纳税人被要求为德国IKB或HRE银行的鲁莽行为买单，他们会有什么反应？


Who would not find such a request inappropriate, to say the least?	谁会不认为这样的要求不合理？


And yet when the bailout is presented the other way around, with German taxpayers asked to backstop reckless Italian or Spanish banks, somehow it is supposed to be an act of solidarity.	而当援助通过另一种方式呈现，德国纳税人被要求支持意大利或西班牙银行的鲁莽行为，倒是有人认为这是表现团结的机会。


Legacy problems in national banking systems should be solved at the national level before the banking union moves forward.	国家层面银行系统的遗留问题应该在国家层面得到解决，然后银行联盟才迈得开步子。


Bailing out governments and banks is not the direction in which Germany should lead.	援助政府和银行不是德国应该其领导作用的方向。


If Germany should lead at all, it should do so by providing a model of good economic policies for others to emulate.	如果说德国应该承担领导责任的话，那也应该是提供好的经济政策榜样供其他国家效仿。


It should lead by respecting the commitments enshrined in the European treaties.	德国应该带头尊重写入欧洲条约的承诺。


Indeed, Germany set a disgraceful and damaging example when, back in 2003-2004, it undermined the European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact by not adhering to it.	事实上，在2003—2004年间，德国没有坚持欧盟的稳定和发展公约（Stability and Growth Pact），起了一个非常不好的带头作用。


Walter Hallstein, the first president of the European Commission, repeatedly stressed that the union is based on the principle of a community of nations under the rule of law (Rechtsgemeinschaft).	欧盟委员会第一任主席沃尔特·哈尔斯坦（Walter Hallstein）一再强调，欧洲联盟是建立在法治精神下的国家共同体（Rechtsgemeinschaft）原则的基础上的。


Today, credibility can only be restored if treaties and rules are respected again.	如今，只有条约和尊重再一次得到尊重，信誉才能得到重塑。


Think of the eurozone as a selective club.	可以把欧元区比作会员俱乐部。


Unless its members respect the rules by which it is defined, it will wither.	除非会员们尊重有他们自己制定的规则，否则俱乐部就难以为继。


Those who violate the rules must be warned and finally sanctioned – preferably in an automatic fashion.	违反规则的成员必须得到警告，最终得到制裁——这一切最好自动发生。


Those who violate the rules consistently, and even announce that they will continue in their misbehavior, should not be allowed to blackmail the community and should ultimately consider leaving the club.	决不能允许不断违反规则、甚至宣布对不当行为死不悔改的会员要挟俱乐部，应该考虑把他请出俱乐部。


Those who are concerned about permanent German dominance of the European “club” can rest easy.	担心德国永久主宰欧洲“俱乐部”的人大可不必担心。


Having emerged from the position of the sick man of Europe only a decade ago, Germany is now willfully, if thoughtlessly, undoing the reforms that had so strengthened its economy.	十年前，德国还是欧洲病夫，如今，崛起的德国固执（也可以说是草率）地对强化了它的经济的改革反其道而行之。


By reinforcing already-strict labor-market regulation, pursuing a misguided energy policy, and reversing pension reform, Germany is undermining its current economic position and will move in the direction of problem countries.	德国加强了已然十分严格的劳动力市场监管、追求错误的能源政策、颠覆了养老金改革，它正在自挖当前经济局面的脚跟，朝问题国家迈进。


This regression will take time, but it will happen.	回归需要时间，但终会发生。


Accordingly, calls for German leadership will disappear and its strained public finances will suppress requests for financial transfers.	据此，呼吁德国承担领导责任的呼声会消退，其大受掣肘的公共财政将压倒对财政转移支付的要求。


One wonders how the discussion about “leadership” for Europe will look then?	到那时，关于欧洲“领导责任”的讨论会是怎样一幅模样？


Our G-Zero World	G0世界


NEW YORK – We live in a world where, in theory, global economic and political governance is in the hands of the G-20.	纽约——当今世界，从理论上讲，全球经、政治理大权握于G20手中。


In practice, however, there is no global leadership and severe disarray and disagreement among G-20 members about monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates and global imbalances, climate change, trade, financial stability, the international monetary system, and energy, food and global security.	但实际上，全球领导力并不存在，G20内部纷扰不断，分歧严重，举凡货币与财政政策、汇率与全球经贸不平衡、气候变化、贸易、金融稳定、国际货币体系、能源、食品和全球安全问题莫不如此。


Indeed, the major powers now see these issues as zero-sum games rather than positive-sum games.	说真的，各大国心里觉得这些问题是零和博弈而不是正和博弈。


So ours is, in essence, a G-Zero world.	所以说，我们的世界本质上是个G0世界。


In the nineteenth century, the stable hegemon was the United Kingdom, with the British Empire imposing the global public goods of free trade, free capital mobility, the gold standard, and the British pound as the major global reserve currency.	19世纪，英国牢牢掌握霸权，大英帝国供应全球公共品——自由贸易、资本自由流动、金本位和作为全球主要储备货币的英镑。


In the twentieth century, the United States took over that role, imposing its Pax Americana to provide security to most of Western Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.	20世纪，美国取而代之，建立美国统治下的和平（Pax Americana），向西欧、亚洲、中东和拉美的广大地域提供安全保障。


The US also dominated the Bretton Woods institutions – the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and, later, the World Trade Organization – to determine the global trade and financial rules, with the dollar as the main reserve currency.	美国也主宰了几个布雷顿森林机构——国际货币基金、世界银行以及后来的世界贸易组织，它为全球贸易和金融秩序定规，美元成为主要储备货币。


Today, however, the US “empire” is in relative decline and fiscally over-stretched.	可是如今，美“帝国”相对衰落，财政负担过重。


Moreover, the rising power, China, which is not a liberal democracy, is pursuing a model of state capitalism, and is free-riding on the current global system – on trade, exchange rates, climate change – rather than sharing in the provision of global public goods.	而中国这个崛起中的大国，不是自由民主政体，想搞国家资本主义，还是现行全球体系中的搭便车者，在贸易、汇率和气候变化问题上，不想分担提供全球公共品的责任。


And, while there is general unhappiness with the US dollar, the Chinese renminbi is still far from becoming a major global reserve currency, let alone the dominant one.	而且，虽然美元饱受非议，人民币还远远不是主要全球储备货币之一，更不用说主导性货币了。


This power vacuum has reinforced the absence of leadership on global economic and political governance within the G-20 since it succeeded the G-7 at the onset of the recent economic and financial crisis.	权力真空的现状加剧了自经济金融危机爆发之初G20取代G7以来，其内部缺乏全球经、政治理领导力的状况。


Indeed, with the exception of the London summit in April 2009, when a consensus was reached on joint monetary and fiscal stimulus, the G-20 has become just another bureaucratic forum where much is discussed, but little is agreed upon.	说实话，除了2009年4月伦敦峰会这个例外，G20简直成了另一个官僚主义的论坛，讨论的问题很多，达成的一致很少。


As a result, the global economic powers have been left bickering about whether we need more monetary and fiscal stimulus or less of it.	结果，全球经济大国老是在争吵，我们是需要加大货币与财政刺激力度呢还是需要减小力度。


There are also major disagreements about whether to reduce global current-account imbalances – and about the role that currency movements should play in this adjustment.	关于是否应该缩小全球经常账户不平衡以及汇率应在这一调整中起何种作用也存在严重分歧。


Exchange-rate tensions are leading to currency wars, which may eventually lead to trade wars and protectionism.	汇率紧张导致货币战争，最终可能导致贸易战和保护主义。


Indeed, not only is the Doha round of multilateral free-trade negotiations effectively dead, but there is also a rising risk of financial protectionism as countries re-impose capital controls on volatile global financial flows and on foreign direct investment.	实际上已经死亡的不仅是多边自由贸易谈判多哈回合，随着各国对波动的全球资金流和外国直接投资重新祭出资本管制，金融保护主义正在抬头。


Likewise, there is very little consensus on how to reform the regulation and supervision of financial institutions – and even less on how to reform an international monetary system based on flexible exchange rates and the dollar’s central role as the leading reserve currency.	同样，关于如何改革金融机构的规范和监管也难有共识，至于如何改革以浮动汇率和美元核心为基础的国际货币体系，就更莫衷一是了。


Global climate-change negotiations have similarly ended in failure, and disagreement reigns concerning how to address food and energy security amid a new scramble for global resources.	全球气候变化谈判同样也以失败告终，在新一轮全球资源争夺战中如何确保食品、能源安全这个问题，也充满了分歧。


And, on global geopolitical issues – the tensions on the Korean peninsula, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the disorder in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the political transition in autocratic Middle East regimes – the great powers disagree and are impotent to impose stable solutions.	在全球地缘政治问题上，如朝鲜半岛问题、伊朗核问题、阿以冲突问题、阿富汗和巴基斯坦局势和中东独裁政权转轨问题等等，各大国也各有各的算盘，无法拿出可行的解决方案来。


There are several reasons why the G-20 world has become a G-Zero world.	G20世界为什么成了一个G0世界呢？


First, when discussion moves beyond generic principles into detailed policy proposals, it’s much more difficult to reach clear agreements among 20 negotiators than among seven.	第一，一旦讨论超出一般原则而深入政策细节，20个谈判者要达成一致，肯定比7个谈判者要难得多。


Second, G-7 leaders share a belief in the power of free markets to generate long-term prosperity and in the importance of democracy for political stability and social justice.	第二，G7首脑共同信仰自由市场创造长期繁荣的力量，信仰民主对政治稳定和社会正义的重要性。


The G-20, on the other hand, includes autocratic governments with different views about the role of the state in the economy, and on the rule of law, property rights, transparency, and freedom of speech.	而G20则包括了一些独裁政府，它们对国家在经济中所应扮演的角色、法治、所有权、透明度和言论自由等问题有不同看法。


Third, the Western powers now lack the domestic political consensus and financial resources to advance an international agenda.	第三，西方大国目前缺乏国内政治共识和金融资源，难以推进国际议程。


The US is politically polarized, and must at some point begin to reduce its budget deficit.	美国政治两极分化严重，而且迟早得着手削减预算赤字。


Europe is preoccupied with its attempt to save the eurozone, and has no common foreign or defense policy.	欧洲的当务之急是拯救欧元区，并且缺乏共同的外交和防务政策。


And Japan’s political stalemate on structural reforms has left it helpless to stem long-term economic decline.	日本在结构改革僵局里泥足深陷，经济注定长期衰退。


Finally, rising powers like China, India, and Brazil are far too focused on managing the next stage of their domestic development to bear the financial and political costs that come with new international responsibilities.	最后，中国、印度、巴西等崛起中的大国专注于管理自身发展的程度远甚于承担国际金融与政治成本的责任心。


In short, for the first time since the end of World War II, no country or strong alliance of countries has the political will and economic leverage to secure its goals on the global stage.	简言之，自第二次世界大战结束以来，第一次出现了没有任何国家或国家联盟同时具备政治意愿和经济能力，在全球舞台上贯彻其目标。


This vacuum may encourage, as in previous historical periods, the ambitious and the aggressive to seek their own advantage.	历史告诉我们，这种真空将鼓励那些野心勃勃、咄咄逼人的国家去谋求优势。


In such a world, the absence of a high-level agreement on creating a new collective-security system – focused on economics rather than military power – is not merely irresponsible, but dangerous.	在这样一个世界里，在创立一个以经济而非军事为中心的新的集体安全体系上，缺乏高层次的共识，这不仅是不负责任的，而且是危险的。


A G-Zero world without leadership and multilateral cooperation is an unstable equilibrium for global economic prosperity and security.	对于全球经济的繁荣与安全而言，缺乏领导力和多边合作的G0世界，是一个不稳定均衡。


Our Kind of Truth	我们眼中的真相


NEW YORK – Rick Santorum, a former United States senator seeking the Republican Party’s nomination to challenge President Barack Obama this year, has been saying some very strange things about the Netherlands.	发自纽约——里克·桑托勒姆（Rick Santorum） 这位一直争取共和党提名以便挑战奥巴马总统之位的美国前参议员，一直在宣扬某些与荷兰有关的奇谈怪论。


Ten percent of all deaths in that country, he recently claimed, are from euthanasia, half of which are forced upon helpless patients.	他最近声称该国有10%的死亡是通过安乐死实现的，而其中半数都被强加于那些不能自理的患者身上。


Old people are so frightened of being killed by homicidal doctors that they wear bracelets that read: “Do not euthanize me.”	老人们非常担心会丧命于杀人医生之手，只好戴上写着“别把我安乐死”的腕带来表达自己的意愿。


In a way, Santorum’s canards must come as a relief to a country that has increasingly been in the news for outrageous statements by right-wing populists about Muslims and Greeks.	在某种程度上，桑托勒姆的谬论对美国这个新闻频道中日益充斥着右翼民粹主义分子反穆斯林反希腊夸张言论的国家来说可算是温和的了。


Indeed, Santorum’s view of the Netherlands as a kind of progressive dystopia has a slightly old-fashioned ring to it nowadays.	而他将荷兰视为一个人间地狱般的发达国家（dystopia）的言论其实也有点跟不上潮流了。


The Dutch were nonetheless disturbed.	但这依然对荷兰人造成了不小的困扰。


Some in the country’s parliament even asked whether the foreign minister should lodge a complaint in Washington.	有些荷兰议员甚至要求外交部长向华盛顿提出抗议。


In fact, Santorum’s fantasies were swiftly refuted in the US itself.	实际上，桑托勒姆 的谬论在美国国内就迅速遭到了驳斥。


The Washington Post concluded that “there was not a shred of evidence to back up Santorum’s claims,” and found it “telling” that his campaign managers did not even bother to defend them.	《华盛顿邮报》下结论说：“没有任何证据能支持桑托勒姆的说法”，并认为其竞选经理们懒得自辩的行为“正好说明了这一点”。


One US television station even apologized to a Dutch reporter in the name of the American people.	一家美国电视台甚至代表美国人民向一位荷兰记者致歉。


As the Post pointed out, there is no such thing as involuntary euthanasia in the Netherlands.	正如《华盛顿邮报》所指出的那样，在荷兰，非自愿安乐死并不存在。


The patient’s consent is essential, and at least two doctors must agree that the patient’s suffering is unbearable and beyond cure.	病人的同意是至关重要的，而且必须至少有两名医生同意该病人已经处于一种遭受极大痛苦且无法治愈的状态。


Besides, the share of assisted deaths in Dutch mortality is nowhere near 10%.	另外，协助死亡占荷兰总死亡人口的比例远远低于10%。


As for those bracelets, well…	至于腕带一说，唉……


But does any of this matter to Santorum’s followers?	但这对那些桑托勒姆的追随者们来说重要吗?


Probably not.	答案或许是否定的。


Corrections from the “elitist” mainstream media are dismissed as enemy propaganda.	来自主流“精英”媒体的纠正被视为敌对宣传。


As a blogger sympathetic to Santorum put it: “The Washington Post, as one would expect, attempted to discredit Santorum.”	一个同情桑托勒姆的博主写道：“不出意料，《华盛顿邮报》想抹黑桑托勒姆”。


It is disturbing, to say the least, that the most cogent refutations of bald-faced lies no longer make any impression.	这令人感到担心，至少说明对赤裸裸谎言的有力反驳再也无法给人留下任何印象。


After all, a democracy cannot function without a public that is properly informed.	毕竟一个民主国家是无法离开正确知情的公众而运行的。


Informing the public used to be the role of serious newspapers and television networks.	严肃报刊和电视网络曾经扮演着告知公众的角色。


Of course, not everything in the mainstream media is always true. Mistakes are made.	当然主流媒体中的东西也不总是正确的，也会出错。


News organizations have political biases, sometimes reflecting the views and interests of their owners.	新闻机构也拥有自身的政治倾向，有时反映了其拥有者的观点和利益。


But high-quality journalism has always relied on its reputation for probity.	但高品质的新闻一直依靠着诚实来保证声誉。


Editors, as well as reporters, at least tried to get the facts right.	编辑，和记者一样，至少试图找到正确的事实。


That is why people read Le Monde, The New York Times, or, indeed, the Washington Post. Filtering nonsense was one of their duties –amp#160;and their main selling point.	这就是为什么人们读《世界报》，《 纽约时报》或者《华盛顿邮报》的原因，而过滤掉那些无意义的废话则是它们的职责——和最大卖点。


That has changed.	不过情况已经发生了变化。


Populist demagogues in politics and the mass media are doing everything they can to discredit the quality press as propaganda organs for left-wing elites who sneer at the views of ordinary Americans.	民粹主义煽动者和大众传媒正想尽办法地将高质量媒体抹黑为嗤笑普通美国人观点的左翼精英宣传喉舌。


Santorum pretends to speak for these people – that is, for a minority of Americans who are mostly white, provincial, highly religious, deeply conservative on cultural and social issues, and convinced that Obama and all Europeans are dangerous godless socialists.	桑托勒姆假装为这样的人说话， 他们大多是守旧的，有着高度宗教信仰的, 在文化和社会问题上非常保守的白人。 并且他们 确信奥巴马以及所有欧洲人都是些危险的，持无神论的社会主义者。


The point is not whether Santorum is right or wrong factually. What he says “feels” right to his followers, because it conforms to their prejudices.	关键不在于桑托勒姆的言论在事实上的对错，而是他所说的能使其追随者们“感觉”良好—因为这符合他们的偏见。


And the Internet, having swamped the quality press, feeds and reinforces those prejudices, making it more difficult to distinguish the truth from lies.	并且因特网已经淹没了高质量的报业集团, 产生并巩固着这些偏见，也更难把真相从谎言中分离出来.


The public is increasingly segmented into groups of likeminded people who see their views echoed back to them in blogs, comments, and tweets. There is no need to be exposed to different opinions, which are, in any case, considered to be propaganda.	公众正日益裂化为一个个由思维相似人群组成的小群体，他们看到于自己类似的观点回荡在博客，评论，和推特中，无需接触不同的观点，而这些不同的观点也被视作反对派的宣传），事实上就算作为一名政客而落选了，桑托勒姆的新声望也足以令他转型为媒体煽动者而拥有成功的事业。


The first people to argue that all truth is relative, and that all information is a form of propaganda that reflects society’s power relations, were far removed from the world inhabited by Santorum and his supporters.	第一个认为所有真相都是相对的以及所有信息都是一种反映了社会权力关系的宣传的那个人，早已被桑托勒姆及其支持者们排除在了自己的世界之外。


Several decades ago, a number of European and American intellectuals, often with a background in Marxism, developed a “post-modern” critique of the written word.	几十年前，有一批欧美学者——通常具有马克思主义背景——发展了一种对写作的“后现代”批评体系。


We might think, they argued, that what we read in The New York Times or Le Monde is objectively true, but everything that appears there is, in fact, a disguised form of propaganda for bourgeois class interests.	他们认为我们所读到的《纽约时报》或者《世界报》中的信息并非事实客观真实，而是一种貌似客观真实，却实质为一种伪装过的，代表资产阶级利益的宣传。


There is no such thing, the post-modern critic believes, as independence of thought. Objective truth is an illusion.	后现代主义批评者信奉世上没有真正的独立思想，对他们来说客观真实只是虚幻，所有的一切都只是为拥护形形色色的阶层利益而存在。


Everyone is promoting class interests of one kind or another. The real lie, in this view, is the claim of objectivity.	在这种观点中真正的谎言恰恰发生在自称客观之时。


What is necessary to change the world is not the truth, but another form of propaganda, promoting different interests. Everything is political.	改变世界所需要的并非真相，而是另一种形式的，为另一派利益服务的宣传，一切都是政治，这就是唯一的真相。


Santorum, after all, recently called Obama a “snob” for claiming that all Americans should be entitled to a college education. So he must surely loath writers who represent everything that the Tea Party and other radical right-wingers abhor: the highly educated, intellectual, urban, secular, and not always white.	桑托勒姆及其大多数支持者都不太可能读过任何后现代主义理论家的著作，毕竟，桑托勒姆最近将奥巴马称为“傲慢自大”就因为后者提出所有美国人都应拥有大学教育，因此桑托勒姆也必然极其厌恶那些茶党人士和其他极右翼所痛恨的作家，这些作家都受过高等教育，代表都市化，世俗化，而且往往都不是白人，他们就是左翼精英，至少在学术意义上的。


But, as so often happens, ideas have a way of migrating in unexpected ways.	但是如同经常发生的那样，思想会以不可思议的方式发生转移。


The blogger who dismissed The Washington Post’s corrections of Santorum’s fictional portrayal of the Netherlands expressed himself like a perfect post-modernist.	那位博主虽然对《华盛顿邮报》对桑托勒姆虚构荷兰故事的批驳嗤之以鼻，但他自己的表达方式也正如一个完美的后现代主义者。


The most faithful followers of obscure leftist thinkers in Paris, New York, or Berkeley are the most reactionary elements in the American heartland. Of course, if this were pointed out to them, they would no doubt dismiss it as elitist propaganda.	晦涩的左派思想家在巴黎，纽约或者伯克利的最忠实的追随者竟是美国腹地那些最反动的元素，如果向他们指出这一点的话，也无疑会被斥之为精英主义宣传。


Our Other Drug Problem	我们的另一个药物问题


MILAN – With all the official and media attention given to the worldwide trade in illicit drugs, the public has at most a dim awareness of the serious problems affecting the production, testing, and sale of the legal kind: the medicines that we take to treat or cure everything from AIDS to Yellow Fever.	米兰—尽管官方和媒体都对世界范围内的非法药物贸易给予关注，但公众对于影响到合法药物生产、试验和销售的各种严重问题却至多只有些许认识。 而这些药物为我们治疗从爱滋病到黄热病等各种疾病。


The development of new drugs is a complex and lengthy process.	新药的研制是一个复杂而漫长的过程。


It starts with an idea and requires a wide range of skills to bring that idea to fruition: synthesis or extraction of more or less complicated molecules, proof of their therapeutic effect in cell cultures and animals, testing for toxicity, and clinical studies.	它发端于一个理念，并需要广泛的技能才得以实现：更为复杂或更加简单的分子的合成或提取，它们在细胞组织和动物身上的治疗作用验证，毒性试验和临床研究。


Along this path, many potential drugs are withdrawn, and even successfully tested drugs face the additional hurdle of regulatory approval.	在这一过程中，许多潜在的药物被放弃，即便是成功通过试验的药物也面临着额外的监管审批障碍。


Finally, the drug reaches the market, where it must be followed closely, because many adverse reactions are detected only with a large number of patients and after years of use.	最后，药物进入市场，也必须对其进行严格跟踪，因为许多不良反应要经过众多病人多年的使用之后才能被发现。


There are several thousand drugs currently on the market, with a worldwide value of about $3 trillion. But conditions in the drug market are far from optimal.	目前全球市场上有价值约3万亿美元的数万种药物，但药品的市场环境却很难令人放心。


Ideally, drugs should have a favorable risk-benefit ratio.	在理想状态下，药物应该有较好的风险-受益比。


Compared with other drugs with the same indications, new drugs should be selected on the basis of their safety, effectiveness, and cost.	相较于针对同样适应症的其他药物，新药的选择应该基于其安全性、有效性和成本。


But the financial interests involved tend to distort the process by creating incentives to overestimate the benefits of new drugs, underestimate the risks, and, above all, boost prescriptions.	但经济利益的介入似乎总会驱动对新药收益的高估和对风险的低估，最终推动相关处方的开具，从而扭曲这一过程。


What can be done?	我们能做些什么呢？


First, new drugs should always offer added value – better efficacy, lower toxicity, or greater ease of treatment.	首先，新药应该总是提供附加值—更佳的疗效、更低的毒性或更便利的治疗。


Unfortunately, this is not required by current legislation in Europe, where only quality, efficacy, and safety must be demonstrated, without any need for comparative studies.	不幸的是，目前欧洲的立法却没有这样的要求：药物只需证明其质量、药效和安全性，而在比较研究方面却没有任何规定。


There is therefore the risk that new drugs may in fact be worse than products already on the market.	因此，新药比目前市场上同类药品的实际效果更差的风险也是存在的。


New drugs are often tested against placebos or drugs that are not the best treatment available, the point being to demonstrate that the new drug is not inferior to any already on the market.	新药试验通常与安慰剂或市场上的非首选药物对照，目的是显示其疗效不逊于任何已上市的药品。


But it is ethically questionable to test a drug for “non-inferiority,” because patients are exposed to potential risks while contributing, in the best case, to the development of a drug that is no better than those already available.	但试验某种新药的“非劣效性”在道德上是值得拷问的，因为即便在最好的情况下，病人在为一种并不比已有药物疗效更好的药物的研制做出贡献的同时，也被暴露于潜在的风险中。


Patients’ informed consent usually does not provide a clear description of a non-inferiority trial, and the lack of added value indicates that in many cases the development of a new drug is driven by commercial aims rather than patients’ needs.	病人的知情同意通常不能为非劣效性试验提供一个清晰的描述。 而且缺乏附加值意味着在很多情况下新药的研发是被商业目的而非病人需求所驱动。


Second, improvement of drug development requires more transparency from the regulatory bodies.	其次，药物研发的进步需要监管部门更大的透明度。


At present, a new drug’s producer prepares the entire dossier presented to the regulatory authority for approval; in the interests of the public, at least one of the clinical trials should be carried out by an independent non-profit organization.	目前，一种新药的所有相关文件都由其生产商呈交监管当局审批； 鉴于公众利益，至少一种临床试验应该由独立的非营利组织来进行。


Moreover, only the regulators can examine the dossiers, which are highly confidential.	另外，只有监管者能审阅高度机密的相关资料。


It is unacceptable that patients participating voluntarily in clinical trials, and their representatives, have no right to see data that would not exist without them.	令人无法接受的是自愿参加临床试验的病人及其代表却无权查阅这些数据（没有他们也就不会有这些数据）。


Third, better conditions for the approval of new drugs should be matched by better use of drugs, which requires better information for prescribers.	再者，更好的新药审批环境应该和更好的用药相配合，而这就要求处方的开具者拥有更多的信息。


Today, information provided by drug makers largely predominates over independent information.	当今，相对于独立信息，药物生产商提供的信息占据主导地位。


As a result, certain drugs are used much more frequently than would be expected from their approved indications.	其结果是某些药物的使用频度大大高于其适应症的期望频度。


This so-called “off-label” use is sustained by continuous propaganda aimed not only at doctors, but also directly at the public.	这种所谓的“标签外”用药又被持续的宣传攻势所强化。 这些宣传不光针对医生，还直接针对公众。


Direct but shadowy information tends to lead to “disease mongering” – the creation of diseases in order to boost prescriptions.	目的直接但却形式隐蔽的信息往往导致“贩卖疾病”—为了增加处方而创造疾病。


For example, the concept of “pre-hypertension” could extend the use of anti-hypertensive drugs dramatically, because everybody’s blood pressure rises with age. Likewise, the notion that blood cholesterol should be as low as possible clears a path to treating healthy people with anti-cholesteremic agents.	例如，“高血压前期”的概念可能急剧地扩大降压药的使用范围，因为每个人的血压都会随着年龄增长而升高。


Clearly, health authorities must take closer control of information by becoming more responsible for physicians’ continuous education.	同理，血液中胆固醇的水平应该越低越好的观念，为对健康人使用抗胆固醇药物扫清了道路。


If the conditions for drug approval and marketing become more severe, pharmaceutical companies will be forced to produce fewer me-too drugs and more products of clinical importance.	如果药物审批和营销的环境变得更为严厉，各制药公司将会被迫减产那些亦步亦趋的药品而增产有临床重要性的药品。


Requiring longer testing periods, and possibly extra resources, could be compensated by new drugs’ greater longevity on the market, and patent coverage could be extended.	更长的试验期和额外的资源成本可以通过新药在市场上更长的生命周期来补偿，专利覆盖面也可以扩大。


Finally, incentives must be found to encourage pharmaceutical companies to develop drugs that fulfill the needs of patients still awaiting therapy.	最后，我们必须寻求一些激励机制来鼓励制药公司开发满足亟待治疗的病人需求的新药。


There are more than 6,000 rare and neglected diseases – many in developing countries – that lack remedies.	还有6000多种罕见和被忽视的疾病—许多都产生在发展中国家—缺少对症药物。


The challenge is how to produce new drugs that – because patients are too few or too poor – promise very limited returns.	我们所面临的挑战是如何来生产那些经济回报非常有限（因为病人太少或太穷）的新药。


A partnership between governments, non-profit research institutions, charities and pharmaceutical companies might be one way to clean up the approval process for new drugs.	政府、非营利性研究机构、慈善机构和制药公司之间的伙伴关系可能是扫清新药审批流程障碍的一种途径。


If public awareness of the current problems stimulates politicians to find a solution that works, better drugs and better drug use will be achievable.	如果公众对现实问题的认识促使政界人士去寻求一种行之有效的解决方案，那么我们就能研制出更好的药物，并实现更好的用药。


Our Summer of Extremes	我们的极端夏天


BERLIN – This summer has been one of weather-related extremes in Russia, Pakistan, China, Europe, the Arctic – you name it.	发自柏林——无论是俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、中国，欧洲，还是北极……这个夏天都热得有些极端。


But does this have anything to do with global warming, and are human emissions to blame?	但这样的鬼天气是否跟全球变暖有着任何联系？ 人类的碳排放是否又应承担罪责呢？


While it cannot be scientifically proven (or disproven, for that matter) that global warming caused any particular extreme event, we can say that global warming very likely makes many kinds of extreme weather both more frequent and more severe.	当无法在科学上证明（或者否定）全球变暖导致了任何极端气候状况的时候，我们可以说全球变暖很可能增加了多种极端气候状况的发生概率和严重程度。


For weeks, central Russia has been in the grips of its worst-ever heat wave, which has caused probably thousands of fatalities.	数星期以来，俄罗斯中部都被前所未有的热浪包围着，大概导致了近数千人死亡。


As a result of drought and heat, more than 500 wildfires have raged out of control, smothering Moscow in smoke and threatening several nuclear facilities.	而在干旱和炎热之下，有500起山火无法得到控制，不但令莫斯科笼罩在一片烟雾当中，还威胁到了数座核设施。


Russia’s government has banned wheat exports, sending world grain prices soaring.	俄政府因此禁止小麦出口，导致国际谷物价格一路飞涨。


Meanwhile, Pakistan is struggling with unprecedented flooding that has killed more than a thousand people and affected millions more.	与此同时，巴基斯坦却在与史无前例的洪水作斗争，死亡人数已经过千，数百万人流离失所。


In China, flash floods have so far killed more than a thousand people and destroyed more than a million homes.	在中国，泥石流至今已经夺去了一千多人的生命，超过一百万间房屋遭到破坏。


On a smaller scale, European countries like Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic have also suffered serious flooding.	而在另一个稍小的范围内，德国，波兰和捷克这些欧洲国家也都遭遇了洪水。


Meanwhile, global temperatures in recent months have been at their highest levels in records that go back 130 years.	与此同时，近几个月的全球气温达到了130年以来的最高位。


Arctic sea-ice cover reached its lowest recorded average level for the month of June ever.	反过来，北冰洋6月份的海冰覆盖面积已经下降到了有记录以来的最低平均水平。


In Greenland two huge chunks of ice broke off in July and August.	在格陵兰岛，有两块巨型冰川分别在7月和8月崩塌入海。


Are these events connected?	那么，这些事件之间有联系吗？


Looking only at individual extreme events will not reveal their cause, just like watching a few scenes from a movie does not reveal the plot.	仅仅着眼于个别极端事件是无法发现其成因的，正如只看电影的几个片断是弄不懂剧情的。


But, viewed in a broader context, and using the logic of physics, important parts of the plot can be understood.	但通过观察一连串事件并运用物理学的逻辑，某些情节的重要组成部分是可以为我们所理解的。


This decade has been marked by a number of stunning extremes.	过去这10年充斥着一连串令人震惊的极端气候状况。


In 2003, the most severe heat wave in living memory broke previous temperature records by a large margin and caused 70,000 deaths in Europe.	2003年，近百年来最严重的热浪不但大幅刷新了以往的高温纪录，还造成欧洲7000人死亡。


In 2005, the most severe hurricane season ever witnessed in the Atlantic devastated New Orleans and broke records in terms of the number and intensity of storms.	2005年，有史以来最严重的大西洋飓风横扫美国新奥尔良，顺便刷新了暴雨数量和强度两项纪录。


In 2007, unprecedented wildfires raged across Greece, nearly destroying the ancient site of Olympia.	到了2007年，前所未有的山火肆虐希腊，奥林匹亚古遗迹几遭灭顶。


And the Northwest Passage in the Arctic became ice-free for the first time in living memory.	北极的西北走廊在近百年来首次出现无冰状态。


Last year, more than a hundred people were killed in bush fires in Australia, following drought and record-breaking heat.	去年，澳大利亚山火导致数百人丧生，随后又是干旱以及创纪录的高温。


This cluster of record-breaking events could be merely an astonishing streak of bad luck.	有人觉得，这一连串破纪录的事件可能仅仅是世人碰巧走了一段霉运而已。


But that is extremely unlikely.	但这个说法是极端靠不住的。


This is far more likely to be the result of a warming climate – a consequence of this decade being, worldwide, the hottest for a thousand years.	而更可疑得罪魁祸首则是变暖的气候——是近一千年以来最热的十年所带来的后果。


All weather is driven by energy, and the sun ultimately provides this energy.	所有的天气都是由能量推动的，而这些能量的最初提供者则是太阳。


But the biggest change in Earth’s energy budget by far over the past hundred years is due to the accumulation in our atmosphere of greenhouse gases, which limit the exit of heat into space.	但过去几百年来地球能量总量中最大的变化推动力其实是大气中积累的温室气体，因为他们限制了热量向外太空散失。


Owing to fossil-fuel emissions, there is now one-third more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than at any time in at least a million years, as the latest ice drilling in Antarctica has revealed.	由于来自化石燃料温室气体的排放，当今大气中的二氧化碳含量比100万年前多了1/3，而冰川的崩坍则印证了这一点。


The changes in the planet’s energy budget caused by solar variations are at least ten times smaller in comparison. And they go in the wrong direction: in recent years, the sun has been at its dimmest since satellite measurements began in the 1970’s.	相比之下，由太阳活动所导致的地球能源总量变化幅度只有上述原因的1/10，而且起的还是反作用：近几年的太阳是1970年代开始卫星观测以来光线最为黯淡的。


So, when unprecedented extreme weather events occur, the prime suspect is naturally the biggest atmospheric change that has happened over the past hundred years – one that has been caused by human emissions.	因此当史无前例的极端气候发生之时，最主要的嫌疑犯自然就是过去数百年以来持续发生的重大大气变化——而这就是由人类排放所导致的。


The fact that heat waves like the one in Russia become more frequent and extreme in a warmer world is easy to understand.	在一个更加温暖的世界中，像俄罗斯那样的热浪变得越来越频繁和极端的事实就非常容易理解了。


Extreme rainfall events will also become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, owing to another simple fact of physics: warm air can hold more moisture.	在类似的气候中极端降雨也将变得频繁而且高强度，这是基于另一个简单的物理事实：暖空气可以储藏更多水分。


For each degree Celsius of warming, 7% more water is available to rain down from saturated air masses.	气温每上升1摄氏度，饱和气团中就能多产生7%的降水。


Drought risk also increases with warming: even where rainfall does not decline, increased evaporation dries out the soils.	干旱也是同理，即便当地降雨量不变，但持续的蒸发作用依然会夺走土地里的水分。


The carbon-dioxide effect can also change the preferred patterns of atmospheric circulation, which can exacerbate extremes of heat, drought, or rainfall in some regions, while reducing them in others. The problem is that a reduction in those extremes to which we are already well-adapted provides only modest benefits, whereas the new extremes to which we are not adapted can be devastating, as recent events in Pakistan show.	二氧化碳效应同时还会改变大气环流的较佳模式，一方面令某些区域的炎热，干旱和暴雨状况加剧，另一方面却会缓解其它区域的灾情，问题是减轻那些我们已经适应了的极端气候状况只能带来有限的好处，而那些我们未能适应的新极端气候则是灾难性的，正如当前巴基斯坦所经历的那样。


The events of this summer show how vulnerable our societies are to weather-related extremes. But what we see now is happening after only 0.8º Celsius of global warming.	这个夏天所发生的诸多事件显示出我们的社会在面对极端气候状况时是何等的脆弱。


With swift and decisive action, we can still limit global warming to a total of 2º Celsius or a bit less.	但这一切还仅仅是全球气温上升0. 8摄氏度所带来的结果。


Even that much warming would require a massive effort to adapt to weather extremes and rising sea levels, which needs to start now.	而即便是这么一点暖化都需要采取大规模行动来适应极端天气和海平面上升，而且刻不容缓。


With weak action, like that promised by governments in Copenhagen last December, we will be on course for 3-4º Celsius of global warming. This is bound to outstrip the ability of many societies and ecosystems to adapt.	如果我们像去年12月哥本哈根峰会的各国政府那样缺乏果断行动的话，迎接我们的就将是3~4摄氏度的全球气温上升，这将超出许多社会以及生态系统的承受能力。


And, with no action at all, the planet could even heat up by 5-7º Celsius by the end of this century – and more thereafter.	而倘若不采取任何行动的话，地球温度甚至将在本世纪末上升5~7摄氏度——接着还会进一步上升。


Knowingly marching down that road would be insane.	这是一个能令许多人疯狂绝望的未来之路。


We must face the facts: our emissions of greenhouse gases probably are at least partly to blame for this summer of extremes.	我们必须直面现实：我们的温室气体排放至少要为今夏的极端天气负上一部分责任。


Clinging to the hope that it is all chance, and all natural, seems naive.	如果还固执地认为这一切都是机缘巧合或是自然之道，那显然是很幼稚的。


Let us hope that this summer of extremes is a last-minute wake-up call to policy makers, the corporate world, and citizens alike.	但愿今夏的极端气候能成为最后的警钟，敲醒那些政策制定者，敲醒全世界，以及所有的公民们。


Our Virtual Middle Ages	我们的虚拟中世纪


Wikipedia , the online encyclopedia, is the most impressive collective intellectual project ever attempted – and perhaps achieved.	在线百科全书维基百科全书是有史以来人们所尝试、或许也是业已实现的最为印象深刻的集体智力工程。


It demands both the attention and the contribution of anyone concerned with the future of knowledge.	这一工程要求任何关心知识未来的人的关注和贡献。


Because of the speed with which it has become a fixture in cyberspace, Wikipedia ’s true significance has gone largely unremarked.	由于维基百科在网络空间站稳脚跟的速度，其实际的意义反到基本上不为人所知。


Since its sixth anniversary in 2007, Wikipedia has consistently ranked in the top ten most frequently viewed Web sites worldwide.	自从2007年维基百科创立六周年以来，它在一直稳居全世界最受浏览网页的前十名。


Everyday it is consulted by 7% of all 1.2 billion Internet users, and its rate of usage is growing faster than that of Internet usage as a whole.	每天，12亿互联网用户的7%要查阅这一网站，其使用率的增长要快于整体互联网的使用。


Wikipedia is an encyclopedia to which anyone with a modicum of time, articulateness, and computer skills can contribute.	维基百科全书是一部任何有少量时间、表达能力以及电脑技能的人都可以投稿的百科全书。


Anyone can change any entry or add a new entry, and the results will immediately appear for all to see – and potentially contest.	任何人都可以改变任何条目或者增加一个新条目，而结果将会立即出现，让所有人都看到，或许也可能让其他人提出质疑。


“Wiki” is a Hawaiian root that was officially added to English in 2007 to signify something done quickly – in this case, changes in the collective body of knowledge.	“维基”是一个夏威夷的词根，于2007年被正式加入到英语之中，用来表示某种速成的东西。 在这里，速成的东西是集体知识体系的改变。


Some 4.7 million “Wikipedians” have now contributed to 5.3 million entries, one-third of which are in English, with the rest in more than 250 other languages.	大约四百七十万“维基人”已经向五百三十万条目提供了稿件，其中的三分之一是英语，剩下的由250种其他语言提供。


Moreover, there is a relatively large group of hardcore contributors: roughly 75,000 Wikipedians have made at least five contributions in any given 30-day period.	而且，还有一支相对较大的供稿中坚份子。 大约7万5千名维基人在任何一个30天的期间内至少提供了5篇稿件。


The quality of articles is uneven, as might be expected of a self-organizing process, but it is not uniformly bad.	正如人们可以对自我组织过程所预料的那样，文章的质量参差不齐，但是并不一律劣等。


True, topics favored by sex-starved male geeks have been elaborated in disturbingly exquisite detail, while less alluring matters often lie fallow.	的确，性饥渴怪人喜好的话题得到了详细的讨论，其细节令人难堪，而并不如此迷人的话题经常空置。


Nevertheless, according to University of Chicago Law professor Cass Sunstein, Wikipedia is now cited four times more often than the Encyclopedia Britannica in US judicial decisions.	但是，芝加哥大学法学教授森司塔恩指出，在美国的司法判决中，维基百科全书得到引用的次数超过不列颠百科全书四倍。


Moreover, Nature ’s 2005 evaluation of the two encyclopedias in terms of comparably developed scientific articles found that Wikipedia averaged four errors to the Britannica ’s three.	而且，自然杂志2005年对这两种百科全书可比撰写的科学文章评估表明，维基百科全书平均有四个错误，而不列颠有三个。


That difference probably has been narrowed since then.	这一差别现在可能已经缩小了。


Wikipedia’s boosters trumpet it as heralding the arrival of “Web 2.0.”	维基百科全书的支持者们宣扬说这一百科全书预兆着“网络2. 0”的来临。


Whereas “Web 1.0” facilitated the storage and transmission of vast amounts of different kinds of information in cyberspace, “Web 2.0” supposedly renders the whole process interactive, removing the final frontier separating the transmitter and receiver of information.	0”便利了网络空间中大量不同种类信息的储存和传输，而“网络2. 0”则应该让整个过程变得交互，从而消除了分离信息传输者和接受者之间的最后边界。


But we have been here before – in fact, for most of human history.	但是，人们实际上在人类历史的大多数时间里已经经历过了。


The sharp divide between producers and consumers of knowledge began only about 300 years ago, when book printers secured royal protection for their trade in the face of piracy in a rapidly expanding literary market.	知识的制造者和消费者之间的鸿沟只是产生于300年前左右。 当时，面临快速扩展的文学市场上的盗版，书籍印刷商获得了皇室对其生意的保护。


The legacy of their success, copyright law, continues to impede attempts to render cyberspace a free marketplace of ideas.	其成功的遗产，也就是版权法律继续阻碍让网络空间成为一个思想观念的自由市场的努力。


Before, there were fewer readers and writers, but they were the same people, and had relatively direct access to each other’s work.	在此之前，读者和作者较少，但是他们都是同一些人，而且他们可以相对直接接触各自的作品。


Indeed, a much smaller, slower, and more fragmented version of the Wikipedia community came into existence with the rise of universities in twelfth- and thirteenth-century Europe.	实际上，随着十二世纪和十三世纪欧洲大学崛起，规模更小、速度更慢、而且更为不完整的维基百科社区出现了。


The large ornamental codices of the early Middle Ages gave way to portable “handbooks” designed for the lighter touch of a quill pen.	中世纪早期大本装饰性古抄本让位给了可以携带的、为轻柔的鹅毛笔笔触设计的“手册”。


However, the pages of these books continued to be made of animal hide, which could easily be written over.	但是，这些书的页面还是用兽皮做的，就可以很容易地复写。


This often made it difficult to attribute authorship, because a text might consist of a copied lecture in which the copyist’s comments were inserted and then perhaps altered as the book passed to other hands.	这就难以表明作者，因为某一文本可能包括复写的讲义，在这一讲义中插入了复写人的评论，这本书经手其他人的时候也许也更改了。


Wikipedia has remedied many of those technical problems.	维基百科全书修补了许多这些技术问题。


Any change to an entry automatically generates a historical trace, so entries can be read as what medieval scholars call a “palimpsest,” a text that has been successively overwritten.	对某一条目的修改会自动产生一个历史痕迹，这样，人们就可以阅读这些条目，而中世纪的学者们称它们为“重写本”，也就是被不断重写的文本。


Moreover, “talk pages” provide ample opportunity to discuss actual and possible changes.	而且，“交谈页面”提供了许多机会来讨论实际和可能的修改。


While Wikipedians do not need to pass around copies of their text – everyone owns a virtual copy – Wikipedia ’s content policy remains deeply medieval in spirit.	尽管维基人并不需要传阅他们文本副本，因为每个人都有一个虚拟副本，但是维基百科全书的内容政策确在精神上保留了中世纪的传统。


That policy consists of three rules: 1) no original research; 2) a neutral point of view; and 3) verifiability.	这一政策包括三条规则，也就是，一、不做原始研究； 二、观点中立；


These rules are designed for people with reference material at their disposal but no authority to evaluate it.	三、可供核实。 这些规则是为了那些具备参考材料、但是没有评估权威的人设计的。


Such was the epistemic position of the Middle Ages, which presumed all humans to be mutually equal but subordinate to an inscrutable God.	这也是中世纪的认知立场，该立场假定所有人都是相互平等的，但却是听从于不可知的上帝。


The most one could hope for, then, was a perfectly balanced dialectic.	因此，人们最大的指望就是完全平衡的论理的推论。


In the Middle Ages, this attitude spawned scholastic disputation.	在中世纪，这一态度产生了学术辩论。


In cyberspace, the same practice, often dismissed as “trolling,” remains the backbone of Wikipedia ’s quality control.	在网络空间中，同样的做法被指称为“托捕”，依旧是维基百科全书质量控制的筋骨。


Wikipedia embodies a democratic medievalism that does not respect claims to personal expertise in the absence of verifiable sources.	维基百科全书体现了民主的中世纪精神，这一精神在没有可供核实来源的情况下并不尊重个人专长的主张。


To fully realize this ideal, participation in Wikipedia might be made compulsory for advanced undergraduates and Master’s degree candidates worldwide.	为了完整地实现这一理想，参与维基百科全书或许��当是全球高年级本科生和硕士研究生的必修课。


The expected norms of conduct of these students correspond exactly to Wikipedia ’s content policy: one is not expected to do original research, but to know where the research material is and how to argue about it.	预计对这些学生提出的行为准则与维基百科全书的内容政策完全一致，也就是，并不指望某一学生做原始研究，但是却要知道研究材料在哪里以及如何论辩。


Compulsory student participation would not only improve Wikipedia ’s already impressive collective knowledge base, but also might help curb the elitist pretensions of researchers in the global knowledge system.	作为学生必修课参与其中不仅会提高维基百科全书业已令人惊叹的集体知识基础，而且还有可能帮助限制在全球知识体系中研究人员的精英外表。


Out in Eighteen Months or One Hundred Years?	十八个月撤军还是百年撤军？


BLOOMINGTON, INDIANA – Winston Churchill once said that, in wartime, truth was so precious that it needed to be surrounded by a “bodyguard of lies.”	印第安纳州布隆明顿--丘吉尔曾经说过，在战争时代真相极为宝贵，必须要用“谎言保镖”层层围住。


In America’s presidential campaign – and, sadly, within Iraq itself nowadays – the Iraq War may not be surrounded by a bodyguard of lies, but it has certainly picked up a vast entourage of partisan half-truths, cynical indifference, and uninformed stubbornness.	在美国总统选举中，以及不幸的是如今在伊拉克本身，伊拉克战争就是被谎言保镖围住。 但是这一战争显然又增加了一大堆党派偏见造成的半对办错、玩世不恭的漠不关心以及无知的顽固。


America’s Democrats continue to argue for complete withdrawal of United States forces from Iraq within 18 months, despite the fact that no rational observer believes that Iraqi forces will by then be able to secure Iraq’s borders and face down the country’s numerous militias, which remain armed to the teeth.	尽管没有任何有理性的观察家相信伊拉克军队可以在十八个月内确保伊拉克边境安全以及弹压国内难以计数、全副武装的民兵，但是美国民主党依旧继续主张在十八个月内把美军完全从伊拉克撤离。


Indeed, the Democratic plan (if it can be called one) ignores Iran’s ongoing subversion of Iraq’s state institutions, which will continue unless and until they become strong enough to resist such machinations.	确实，民主党的计划(如果可以被称为计划的话)无视伊朗持续颠覆伊拉克国家机关，而伊拉克变得足够强大可以抵制这些阴谋前，这一颠覆还将继续。


Moreover, Barack Obama’s insistence that Iraq has never constituted a central front in the war on terror insults the memory of tens of thousands – perhaps hundreds of thousands – of Iraqi civilians and US troops murdered by al-Qaeda’s suicide bombers since 2003.	而且，奥巴马坚持说伊拉克从来没有在反恐战争中组成前沿阵地。 这一言论侮辱了自2003年以来数以万计甚至十万计被基地组织人肉炸弹杀害的伊拉克平民以及美军。


Indeed, by 2004, the terrorists themselves regarded Iraq as the central front of their campaign.	实际上，到了2004年，恐怖分子自己已经把伊拉克视为其斗争的前沿阵地。


Nor can one be buoyed by Joseph Biden’s repeated calls for a “soft partition” of Iraq, even though the entire Iraqi political class has rejected the notion.	拜登反复主张将伊拉克“轻柔地分割”，人们难以从中得到鼓舞，而整个伊拉克政治阶层都已经拒绝这一观点。


As for the Republicans, setting aside Sarah Palin’s talk of America’s divine mission in the war on terror, it is inconceivable that John McCain truly believes that a US presence is sustainable in Iraq into the indefinite future.	对于共和党而言，把佩林有关美国在反恐战争中的神圣使命放在一边不谈，人们很难相信麦凯恩确实相信美国在伊拉克无限期驻军是可以维系的事情。


To be fair, McCain never suggested that US troops will wage 100 years of war, as some of his critics claim.	公平而言，麦凯恩从来没有像某些批评者所言说美国军队将发动百年战争。


What McCain was referring to was a peaceable presence of US forces in the country for a long period, rather like their continued presence in Japan since 1945.	麦凯恩所说的是美国在该国很长一段时间内保持和平力量，而非像从1945年以来在日本一直驻军。


Still, even assuming that the American public would tolerate such a presence, the Iraqi public would not.	即使假定美国公众将会容忍美国在伊驻军，伊拉克民众也不会容忍。


America has made too many policy mistakes, US forces are too closely associated with an unpopular and incompetent occupation, and, until recently, their tactics have been too thuggish to permit talk of a permanent presence.	美国已经犯下了太多的政策错误，美国军队与饱受责难、混乱不堪的占领过多地联系在一起。 而且直到最近，他们的战术还是过于杀人，难以谈论永久性驻军。


While most Iraqis understand the need for US forces to be in their country for the short term, they will not abide a permanent deployment.	尽管大多数伊拉克人理解在短期内需要美国军队驻扎，但是他们不会容忍永久驻扎。


McCain’s advisors would do well to consider a historical precedent: the failed British attempt at World War I’s close to maintain a long-term military presence in Iraq.	麦凯恩的谋士们或许应该考虑历史上的先例，也就是在第一次世界大战结束之际，英国试图在伊拉克长期驻军没有成功。


Iraqi politicians have not been exempt from posturing for political gain.	伊拉克的政治人物们也并不免于做点姿态来获得政治利益。


The government committed a number of blunders in its negotiations on the continued presence of US troops.	政府在谈判美军继续驻扎时犯下错误。 确实，今年夏天它好似支持奥巴马早日撤军得计划，从而把自己卷入了美国大选之中。


Indeed, this summer it injected itself into the US elections by seeming to endorse Obama’s plan for early withdrawal.	伊拉克的国家安全顾问是由美国占领当局指定任命。 他原先是一名医生，除了会讲一点说得过去的英语以外根本就没有什么资治。


Then again, for three consecutive years, Iraq’s national security advisor – a physician with no credentials for the job when appointed by the US occupation authority, except that he spoke tolerable English – insisted that the next year would be the last in which American troops were needed.	他随后再次坚持说明年将会是需要美军的最后一年。 他已经连续三年这样说了。


Iraq’s government is demanding a withdrawal timetable from the US, not because it believes that Iraqi forces will be ready to take over soon, but to burnish its nationalist credentials ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.	伊拉克政府要求美国提供撤军时间表。 这并非因为它相信伊拉克军队已经准备好马上接管，而是在明年议会选举前突出其民族主义招牌。


Thus, it hopes to divert public attention from still non-existent basic services, continuing sectarianism, weak oil production, scant infrastructure investment, and rampant corruption and cronyism.	这样，它希望把公众注意力从依旧没有的基础服务、持续的部落主义、脆弱的石油生产、微不足道的基础设施投资以及泛滥的腐败和任人唯亲上转移开来。


Whether this strategy will succeed in obscuring the government’s record of failure in the minds of voters remains to be seen.	这一策略是否可以成功地在选民的头脑中掩饰政府的不良记录还有待观察。


The problem now for Iraqi and US politicians is that, to act rationally, they will need to face down elements within their own constituencies.	对于伊拉克和美国政治人物们而言，现在的问题是如果想要符合理智地做事，他们就要弹压其自身选区内部的势力。


They must recognize that a long-term presence by US troops is out of the question, but that US combat forces will be needed in Iraq – albeit with a diminishing role – for the next five years.	他们必须认识到美军长期驻扎是不可能的事情，但是美国作战部队需要在未来五年内留守在伊拉克(尽管数量要减少)。


Only such a presence can consolidate the palpable, but still reversible, gains made over the past year.	只有这样的驻扎才能巩固去年以来实现的有目共睹而又可以逆转的成果。


Such a force is needed to continue pursuing al-Qaeda, and to counteract pro-Iranian activities.	这样一支部队需要继续追打基地组织，同时反制亲伊朗的活动。


Ending US involvement before the Iraqis can achieve these goals on their own would be disastrous for both US and Iraqi interests.	在伊拉克能够自己实现这些目标之前让美国撤军对于美国和伊拉克的利益都将是灾难性的。


In the meantime, US forces must support Iraqi efforts to strengthen the country’s own military and security forces, while simultaneously disbanding all militias.	与此同时,美国军队必须支持伊拉克加强其自身军队和安全部队的努力,同时解除所有的民兵组织。


Iraq’s militias will not go quietly, yet their dissolution is essential for long-term stability, itself a sine qua non for stability in the region.	伊拉克的民兵组织不会安稳地离开,然而它们的解散对于长期稳定是至关重要的,它本身对于该地区的稳定就是必不可少的条件。


When these missions are accomplished – but not sooner – US forces should withdraw from Iraq.	只有在完成这些使命后——但是绝对不可能很快完成, 美国军队才应该从伊拉克撤军。


Bracing for Stagnation	准备迎接停滞


MUMBAI – As 2015 begins, the global economy remains weak.	孟买—2014年已临近尾声，全球经济疲软依旧。


The United States may be seeing signs of a strengthening recovery, but the eurozone risks following Japan into recession, and emerging markets worry that their export-led growth strategies have left them vulnerable to stagnation abroad.	美国也许看到了复苏强化的信号，但欧元区仍有步日本衰退后尘的危险，而新兴市场也在担忧出口拉动增长战略使使它们极易受国外停滞的影响。


With few signs that this year will bring any improvement, policymakers would be wise to understand the factors underlying the global economy’s anemic performance – and the implications of continued feebleness.	几乎没有信号表明2015年会迎来任何改善，因此决策者的明智做法也许是弄清楚全球经济表现持续萎靡的根本因素——以及继续如此下去的影响。


In the words of Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, we are experiencing the “new mediocre.”	用国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁拉加德的话说，我们正在经历“新平庸”。


The implication is that growth is unacceptably low relative to potential and that more can be done to lift it, especially given that some major economies are flirting with deflation.	其影响是增长相对于潜力来说低到不可接受的程度，而我们能够做更多的事提振增长，特别是考虑到一些主要经济体正在与通缩纠缠。


Conventional policy advice urges innovative monetary interventions bearing an ever expanding array of acronyms, even as governments are admonished to spend on “obvious” needs such as infrastructure.	常规政策建议敦促不断扩大创新性货币干预，即使政府被教导要把钱花在“显而易见”的需要如基础设施上。


The need for structural reforms is acknowledged, but they are typically deemed painful, and possibly growth-reducing in the short run.	结构改革的需要早已得到了承认，但它们通常十分痛苦，在短期可能有抑制增长的作用。


So the focus remains on monetary and fiscal stimulus – and as much of it as possible, given the deadening effects of debt overhang.	因此焦点仍在于货币和财政刺激——尽可能如此，因为债务积压的效果已经令人麻木。


And yet, the efficacy of such policy advice remains to be seen.	而这一政策建议的效果仍然没有显现。


It is worth noting that the Japanese checked each of these boxes over the last two decades: They held interest rates low, introduced quantitative easing, and launched massive debt-financed spending on infrastructure.	值得注意的是，日本人在过去二十年中把这一政策建议的内容试了个遍：他们把利率维持在低位、引入量化宽松，还启动了大量债务融资的基础设施支出。


Few would argue that Japan has recovered fully from its malaise.	但没有人可以说日本已经从萎靡不振中完全复苏了。


An emerging narrative might better explain why stimulus efforts have been unsuccessful: As former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has argued, the world economy may be going through a sustained period of “secular stagnation.”	一个新出现的说法也许可以更好地解释为何刺激不成功：美国前财政部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）指出，世界经济也许进入了持续的“长期停滞”时期。


The causes of the stagnation very much depend on which economist one asks.	这一停滞的原因在很大程度上取决于经济学家之所指。


Summers emphasizes the inadequacy of aggregate demand, exacerbated by the inability of central banks to reduce nominal interest rates below zero.	萨默斯强调总需求的不足，这一不足因为中央银行无法将名义利率降至零以下而加剧。


The reasons for weak aggregate demand include aging populations that consume less and the growing concentration of wealth among the very rich, whose marginal propensity to consume is small.	总需求萎靡的原因包括人口老龄化导致消费减少和财富日渐向边际消费倾向很低的巨富集中。


The economists Tyler Cowen and Robert Gordon, on the other hand, argue that the problem is on the supply side.	另一方面，经济学家泰勒·柯文（Tyler Cowen）和罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）认为问题出在供给端。


In their view, the years following World War II were an aberration, with industrial countries’ growth helped by post-war reconstruction, rising education levels, higher workforce participation rates (owing to the entry of women), restored global trade, increasing investment, and the diffusion of technologies such as electricity, telephones, and automobiles.	在他们看来，二战后的时期是失常期，工业国增长受战后重建、教育水平提高、劳动参与率增加（因为妇女加入了劳动力大军）、全球贸易重启、投资增加以及电、电话和汽车灯技术的普及的推动。


Whatever the causes, growth started to slow in the 1970s, and adverse consequences like high unemployment rates among immigrants and the young were compounded by the growing realization that governments would struggle to deliver on their promises of social security.	不管原因为何，从20世纪70年代开始，增长开始放慢，而移民和年轻人群体的失业率高企的不利结果因为人们日渐意识到政府难以兑现社会安全承诺而变得更加糟糕。


These promises, notes the sociologist Wolfgang Streeck, had been made in the 1960s, when economies were surging and visions of a “Great Society” seemed affordable.	社会学家沃尔夫冈·斯特里克（Wolfgang Streeck）指出，这些承诺是在20世纪60年代许下的，当时经济突飞猛进，“伟大社会”的愿景似乎可以实现。


Promises have since been augmented with pension hikes and old-age health-care commitments for public-sector workers.	此后，承诺又逐渐加码——养老金增加了，公共部门员工老年医疗保障也提高了。


To meet their obligations, governments needed growth.	为了履行义务，政府需要增长。


So, from the 1970s on, they began to spend to stimulate the economy.	因此，20世纪70年代以来，它们开始用支出刺激经济。


Because of the supply-side problems, however, the spending translated into spiraling inflation.	但是，拜供给端问题所赐，这一支出最后转变为上升的通胀。


Price stability needed to be restored, but the spending had to be maintained.	价格稳定需要重新建立，但支出也需要维持。


The ultimate solution was to finance spending not with the inflation tax, but with debt: first public debt, and then, as governments cut their deficits, private-sector debt.	最终的解决办法是靠债务而不是通货膨胀税来为支出融资：先是公共债务，后来随着政府削减赤字，又用上了私人部门债务。


In 2008, these elevated debt levels – in banks, businesses, households, and governments – sparked the financial crisis.	2008年，畸高的债务水平——银行、企业、家庭和政府债务——引发了金融危机。


Today, debt is making it difficult for developed countries to resume pre-2008 growth rates, let alone restore the levels of GDP that would have been attained if the subsequent Great Recession had not happened.	如今，债务让发达国家难以回归2008年前的增长率，更不用说重塑大衰退不发生情况下GDP所能达到的水平了。


Meanwhile, industrial countries’ overall debt/GDP ratios are continuing to grow.	与此同时，工业国的总体债务/GDP比率也在持续升高。


In emerging markets, slow growth in the advanced economies has shut down a traditional development path: export-led growth.	在新兴市场，发达经济体的低增长破坏了传统发展路径——出口拉动型增长。


As a result, emerging markets have had to rely once again on domestic demand.	结果，新兴市场不得不再次依靠内需。


This is always a difficult task, given the temptation to over-stimulate.	这永远不是容易的任务，因为总是存在过度刺激的诱惑。


The abundance of liquidity sloshing around the world – the result of developed countries’ ultra-accommodative monetary policies – has made the task more difficult still, as the smallest sign of growth in an emerging economy can attract foreign capital.	在全世界游荡的充足的流动性——这是发达国家终极适应性货币政策的结果——让这一任务难上加难，因为新兴经济体只要表现出最低程度的增长信号，就会引来外国资本。


If not properly managed, these flows can precipitate a credit and asset-price boom and drive up exchange rates.	如果不予以合理的管理，这些资本流将催生信用和资产价格繁荣，推高汇率。


When developed-country monetary policies are eventually tightened, some of the capital is likely to depart.	当发达国家货币政策最终收紧时，一些资本有可能离开。


Emerging markets will have to ensure that they are not vulnerable.	新兴市场将不得不保证自己不会受其影响。


To be sure, the world’s economic outlook could still take a turn for the better.	平心而论，世界经济前景仍在好转。


The US may become the world’s engine of growth.	美国可能成为世界的增长引擎。


Declining oil prices could provide a major boost, especially to oil-importing developed economies.	下跌的油���可能带来重大提振作用，特别是对进口石油的发达经济体。


Technological advances could still come to the rescue.	技术进步也将助一臂之力。


But, overall, there is a palpable sense of gloom in the developed world, a feeling that growth is unlikely to take off in the foreseeable future.	但是，总体而言，发达世界弥漫着悲观情绪，一种增长在可预见的未来不可能起飞的感觉。


If secular stagnation persists, these countries will have to undertake painful structural reforms, figure out how to restructure their promises (debts, social-security commitments, and pledges to keep taxes low), and distribute the resulting burden.	如果长期停滞持续，这些国家将不得不采取痛苦的结构改革，寻找重组承诺之法（债务、社会安全措施以及承诺保持低税率），并分配由此产生的负担。


After the city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy in 2013, it had to make tough choices between servicing its pensioners or its debt, keeping its museums open or its police force intact.	2013年底特律市申请破产后，它面临着艰难的选择：付养老金还是还债，维持博物馆开门还是警察部队不受影响。


As 2015 begins, similar difficult decisions may become increasingly common.	在我们即将进入2015年之际，类似的艰难选择可能会变得更加普遍。


Out of the Asylum	离开疯人院


Serbia -- long castigated as the land whose late president, Slobodan Milošević, launched a genocide in Yugoslavia -- is not accustomed to finding itself lauded for safeguarding human rights.	因前总统斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇（Slobodan Milošević）在南斯拉夫发动种族清洗而受到长期制裁的塞尔维亚，乍一发现有人因保护人权而为自己击节叫好恐怕还很不适应。


But in one area of human rights protection, much-maligned Serbia has taken an unprecedented step that puts ahead of all the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, including states that are already members of the European Union.	但在人权保护的某个领域，备受诽谤的塞尔维亚采取了超越所有中东欧邻国的前所未有的举措，被塞尔维亚超越的国家有些已经成了欧盟的成员。


In September 2006, Serbia’s Ministry of Labor, Education, and Social Affairs made it official policy to integrate into society thousands of people who had been locked away in Dickensian state institutions because they have a mental disability.	2006年9月，塞尔维亚劳工、教育和社会事务部长制定了官方政策，让成千上万因精神疾病而被禁锢在狄更斯国家精神病院里的患者重归社会。


With this historic move, Serbia adopted a practice that took hold in the rich, Western countries after World War II but was never applied in the Communist bloc.	随着这一历史性举措，塞尔维亚正式实行了二战以后才在西方富裕国家实行的政策，此前，这种政策在共产主义集团没有任何先例。


It is anathema to the concept of a free society to segregate people solely on the basis of mental disability, to ignore their most-basic human rights, to bar them from access to education and employment, to deny them the freedom to choose where and how they live and with whom they can associate.	单纯由于精神疾病而将患者隔离、对他们最基本的人权置之不理、禁止他们参加教育和就业、限制他们选择生活地点和生活方式、剥夺他们的人际交往自由是对自由社会理念的一种玷污。


The policy change aimed at rectifying this grim reality in Serbia came when the Ministry agreed to apply country wide a pilot project that has, since 2003, established a range of community-based support services to enable persons with intellectual disabilities to leave the institutions where they were confined and begin living lives in the wider world.	劳工、教育和社会事务部同意在全国进行试点后，以改变塞尔维亚严酷现实为目的的政策变化终于来临了。 从2003年开始提供一系列以社区为基础的支持服务，目的是让有精神疾病的人走出被禁锢的精神病院，在大千世界中开始正常的生活。


That pilot project demonstrated that people with mental disabilities are capable of living as equal citizens when they receive appropriate assistance.	这项试点计划表明，只要能得到恰当的协助，精神疾病患者一样可以作为平等公民享受自由的生活。


Based upon the project’s success, the Ministry has committed to purchase more than 130 apartments and homes to house people brought out of institutions and to establish day services to help them cope with the complexities of life beyond the walls that once confined them.	在试点计划成功的基础上，社会事务部决定购买130多套住宅和公寓，供医院出来的精神病患者居住，还计划提供日间服务，帮助他们应对从前限制他们的高墙以外的复杂生活。


Funding for these reforms comes from the privatization of state assets -- not from aid from abroad.	这些改革所需的资金并非来自国外援助，而是来自国有资产的私有化。


To Serbia’s credit, the Ministry made its policy decision knowing that the change would require belt-tightening elsewhere in its budget, but it took the action because it concluded that protecting human rights was more important than saving a few dinars.	值得赞扬的是，社会事务部作此决定时已经考虑到要缩减其他方面的预算，但这项举措还是获得了通过，因为他们认为保护人权比省下几个第纳尔更加重要。


Hopefully, Serbia’s decision will inspire the other states of Central and Eastern Europe, including states that have won membership in the European Union, to follow its lead.	塞尔维亚的决策很可能会激励其他中东欧国家，包括已经加入欧盟的国家来效法其榜样。


It is shocking that the EU has done so little to press its members, and candidate-members, to promote community living for people with mental disabilities.	令人震惊的是，欧盟在向其成员国和准成员国施压，改善精神疾病患者的社会生活方面几乎没有任何作为。


None of the new EU member-states have concrete plans or financing mechanisms to develop networks of community-based alternatives on a national scale.	没有任何欧盟成员国制定了具体计划或融资机制，在全国范围内建立以社区为基础的替代网络。


While there are pockets of high quality community-based services in most of the region’s countries, tens of thousands of people with mental disabilities are still living in institutions, and most of them have no prospect of ever leaving.	尽管该地区多数国家都提供了一些以社区为基础的高质量服务，但数万精神病患者仍然居住在精神病院，其中多数人根本没有任何离开的希望。


* Hungary continues to segregate its most disabled citizens and spent millions of dollars on the construction of a new institutional behemoth which sits empty because it does not meet EU fire and safety standards.	* 匈牙利继续让多数残疾公民与世隔离，耗费成百上千万美元建造新的大型精神病院。 由于不符合欧盟火灾和安全标准，这些庞然大物只能闲置。


* Croatia is demonstrating that deinstitutionalization is not a question of money.	* 克罗地亚的经验表明，取消精神病院并不是钱的问题。


The Open Society Institute committed over $2 million to assist the government in closing a large institution for people with intellectual disabilities.	开放社会研究所投资超过200万美元协助政府关闭一座大型精神病院。


But, almost a year into the negotiations, the government is still not ready to commit to concrete action.	但谈判一年之后，政府仍然没有采取任何具体行动。


* In Romania last year, children were dying of starvation in one institution.	* 去年在罗马尼亚，一家精神病院的儿童忍饥挨饿，挣扎在死亡的边缘。


The government placed the blame on local authorities; the local authorities blamed the government for allocating inadequate resources; and inmates of the institutions still look out at the world through windows that are locked and barred.	当地政府指责国家没有拨给足够的资源，而住院的精神病人却仍然只能透过被禁锢的窗户眼巴巴看着外面的世界。


There is an urgent need to change government policies so that providing services for people with mental disabilities in the community is the norm rather than the exception.	我们急需改变国家政策，使为精神病患者提供社区服务成为惯例而不是特例。


Such services must be accessible to everyone who needs them.	服务必须对所有需要的人开放。


And governments must reallocate resources from institutions -- and the bureaucracies that have a vested interest in preserving their positions -- to organizations that support community-based living.	而政府必须重新进行资源分配，这些资源以前被拨给了精神病院和在保持现状中拥有既得利益的官僚机构，而现在却应该拨给那些致力于社区生活的机构和组织。


It is time for the rest of Central and Eastern Europe to catch up to Serbia.	现在是其他中东欧国家向塞尔维亚看齐的时候了。


Outsourcing in Africa	外包在非洲


In the past 40 years, advanced computers and communications have transformed one part of the world after another - first, the US and Europe, then Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, and most recently, India, China, and Eastern Europe.	在过去的40年里，先进的计算机和通信技术逐步改变了世界-首先是美国和欧洲，然后是日本、韩国和台湾，最近的例子是印度、中国和东欧。


Is Africa next?	非洲会是下一个受益的地区吗?


Despite civil wars, malnutrition, and the anguish of the AIDS epidemic, something remarkable is happening in black Africa: the stealthy rise of a high-technology sector.	尽管有内战、营养不良和艾滋病泛滥等诸多问题，黑非洲仍发生了一些值得关注的变化：高技术产业的悄然兴起。


If not quite representing an African "Silicon Valley," these shoots of high-tech industry nonetheless can and must be nurtured if Africa is to thrive.	如果说这种发展还不足以代表非洲"硅谷"的出现，但非洲要想变得繁荣这些高技术产业的萌芽无疑是可以也必须加以培育的。


Consider what is happening on several floors of a single high-rise office building in Accra, Ghana's capital.	看看在加纳首都阿克拉一座高层写字楼的几个楼层里所发生的事情。


There some 1,500 Africans process American health-insurance claims - working around the clock, in three shifts.	有大约1500名非洲人在这里24小时三班倒地工作，处理来自美国的健康保险索赔。


The Africans speak English, type at least 50 words a minute on a computer, take data from paper claim forms supplied by US health insurers via satellite in electronic form, put it into new digital forms, and ship them back to the US.	这些非洲人讲英语，每分钟至少在电脑上输入50个单词。 他们从美国的健康保险公司通过卫星传来的书面索赔表上采集信息，输入新的电子表格，再将其传回美国。


So connected are these Africans that their forms can be reviewed - as they fill them in - by an American supervisor 8,000 miles away.	电子通信技术使远在8000英里外的美国监督员能够实时地督导他们的工作。


Ghana is best known for producing cocoa and gold, but today Affiliated Computer Services (ACS), a Texas company that runs the outsourcing operation, is the country's largest private employer.	加纳以生产可可和金子著称，但今天经营外包服务的一家来自德克萨斯州的名为"关联计算服务公司"(ACS)的企业却是该国最大的私营雇主。


African "key punchers" earn $4 to $5 a day - four times the legal minimum wage - and receive health insurance, meals, and subsidized transport.	非洲的"击键员"们的日薪为4至5美金-是法定最低工资的4倍-还享有健康保险、工作餐和交通补贴。


A small number of African engineers and professionals earn much more, and receive periodic training in advanced technologies.	少数的非洲工程师和专业人员薪酬更高，还能接受先进技术方面的定期培训。


ACS's employees are but the first Africans to benefit from the hottest trend in the global economy: outsourcing, or the shift of service jobs from high-wage to low-wage countries.	ACS的雇员还仅仅是第一批从全球经济最热门的趋势中获益的非洲人。 这一趋势就是外包，换言之就是将服务性工作从高收入国家向低收入国家转移。


To be sure, the number of jobs moving to Africa is tiny compared to those going to Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.	确切地说，转移到非洲的工作数量与转移到亚洲、拉丁美洲和东欧的相比是很少的。


But the big news is that Africa is finally competing in the economic contest that is reshaping the world economy.	但它的重要意义是终于使欧洲加入到重塑世界经济的竞争之中。


Still, Africa remains burdened by severe disadvantages, not the least of which is a terrible image.	然而非洲仍然背负着严重的劣势，其中之一就是其糟糕的形象。


"Big corporations don't even have Africa on the map when they consider outsourcing locations," says Sambou Makalou, a native of Mali who tries to persuade US employers to shift service jobs to Africa.	"大公司甚至没有把非洲放在他们考虑外包地点的版图上"，山布•马卡洛如是说。 他是马里人，正企图说服美国雇主将服务性工作转移到非洲。


"There are real opportunities for outsourcing to Africa," he says, "but there are barriers, too."	"非洲有真正的机会接收外包服务，"他表示，"但也存在障碍。 "


African governments also must be willing to start small: expend a lot of effort to attract pilot projects in the hope of larger employment in the future.	非洲各国政府必须要有从小处着手的意愿：为了将来更大量的工作机会而不遗余力地吸引试点项目。


With sensible reforms, many barriers can be removed or at least eased.	通过明智的改革计划，许多障碍可以被扫除或至少被降低。


Start with the following:	它们应从以下几方面做起：


· Better Governance : African governments often boast when they simply stop the corrosive effects of corruption and irrational business regulation.	更好的管理：非洲各国政府在终止其侵蚀性的腐败行为和非理性的商业法规时往往会鼓吹一番。


But little attention is given to the high cost of telecommunications, unreliable electrical-power systems, and the poor transport infrastructure.	但它们却很少关注高昂的电信服务价格、不可靠的电力供应和落后的交通设施。


• Greater Competitiveness : African leaders have been slow to realize that they must woo foreign corporations with special services, training programs for workers, and even subsidized offices.	更强的竞争力：吸引外国公司的必要条件包括特别服务、工人的培训计划甚至是经营场地补贴。 而非洲的领导人在这方面的意识相对迟钝。


Asian countries attract many jobs by creating "industrial parks," with more reliable services, including ultra-reliable communications networks, offered at competitive prices.	亚洲国家通过设立"工业园区"吸引了大量的工作机会。 这些园区能提供优质优价的服务，其中包括超可靠的电信网络。


By restructuring their secondary schools and universities to train graduates with skills demanded by multinational corporations, Asian countries also create more competitive workforces.	通过重组中专和大学以使其毕业生的职业技能符合跨国公司的要求，亚洲国家还创造了一支更具竞争力的劳动力大军。


To be sure, Africa is a far better place to do business than five years ago.	确切地说，非洲的营商环境比起5年前已大为进步了。


The spread of mobile telephony has revolutionized ordinary life in a continent with the world's lowest penetration of fixed-line telephones.	移动电话公司的发展彻底改变了这个固定线路电话渗透率最低的大洲里人们的生活方式。


Satellite links have vastly improved Internet access, and a new undersea cable that runs along the coast of Africa (SAT-3) promises to improve and reduce the cost of all types of communications.	卫星联接极大的改善了英特网的接入状况，纵贯非洲海岸的新的海底电缆（SAT-3）将会改善所有电信服务的质量并降低其价格。


The problem is that, although Africa's economic appeal is increasing, India and China are improving more quickly, widening the gap.	问题是虽然非洲的经济吸引力在增强，但印度和中国在这方面的进步更为迅速，与非洲的差距正在拉大。


African cities are increasingly finding their way onto the short lists of corporate location experts, only to lose out to Asian cities.	更多的非洲城市出现在公司选址专家的候选名单上，但最终却输给了亚洲城市。


Africans can start winning only if they move faster.	非洲人必须要行动更快才能胜出。


Surprisingly, wage competitiveness is a problem.	令人惊讶的是，工资竞争力也是一个问题。


Although Africa is the world's poorest region on average, wages in the formal economy generally exceed those paid in China and India, where government keeps basic food, housing, and transport costs relatively low through subsidies and controls.	虽然非洲在平均意义上是全世界最贫穷的地区，但在正式经济的层面上，非洲的工资水平却往往超过印度和中国。 这两个国家的政府通过补贴和调控将基本食品、住房和交通的价格保持在较低的水平。


In urban Africa, costs - for food and transport in particular - are relatively high, which forces wages up.	在非洲的城市，成本-特别是在食品和交通方面-相对较高，这就迫使工资上涨。


The supply of African professionals and skilled workers, meanwhile, is tight; shortages also drive up wages.	同时，非洲的专业人才和熟练工人的缺乏也推动工资上涨。


Indeed, an Indian software programmer typically earns less than a comparable African programmer.	的确，一位印度软件工程师的薪酬就要比其非洲同行少。


Even wages for routine data-entry tasks in Africa are usually no less than those paid in south Asia.	就算是一般的数据录入工作在非洲所获得的报酬也不比在南亚的低。


The odds that Africa one day will receive a fair share of outsourcing jobs are improving.	非洲获得合理份额的外包工作的机会在增加。


But there is a risk that the region will fall further behind.	但该地区会进一步落后的风险依然存在。


When ACS decided to expand recently, it opened a new operation in India rather than in Ghana or another African country.	当ACS最近决定扩大其业务时，它在印度而不是在加纳或另一个非洲国家建立了分公司。


The message was sobering.	这一举动所传达的讯息令人警醒。


Even as hundreds of similar outsourcing centers spring up in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, the Accra center remains a rarity in Africa.	即使在外包中心如雨后春笋般出现在亚洲、东欧和拉丁美洲时，阿克拉中心仍是非洲的一个特例。


That is a shame, but it need not be Africa's fate.	这让非洲相形见��，但却并不代表着非洲的命运。


The Not-So-High Costs of Brexit	代价不那么高的英国脱欧


BRUSSELS – The United Kingdom’s vote to “Brexit” the European Union is on course to become the year’s biggest non-event.	布鲁塞尔—英国投票“脱离”欧盟即将成为今年最大的“小事”。


Beyond a weaker pound and lower UK interest rates, the referendum has not had much of a lasting impact.	除了英镑贬值和英国利率下调，公投并未产生多少持续影响。


Financial markets wobbled for a few weeks after the referendum, but have since recovered.	金融市场在公投后跌了几周，但此后就恢复了。


Consumer spending remains unmoved.	消费支出岿然不动。


More surprising, investment has remained consistent, despite uncertainty about Britain’s future trade relations with the EU.	更令人惊奇的是，投资也相当稳健，尽管存在英国与欧盟未来贸易关系的不确定性。


Have the costs of Brexit been overblown?	英国退出的代价是否被夸张了？


Not exactly.	不尽然。


In fact, the UK may well end up losing the predicted 2-3% of GDP from Brexit.	事实上，英国最终很可能如预测那样因为脱欧而损失2—3%的GDP。


But it is the exit from the single market, not the initial vote to leave, that will bring those losses, and that may happen over a long period.	但退出单一市场，而不是起先的脱欧投票，带来了这些损失，并且损失的持续时间可能很长。


If the exit turns out to be a ten-year process, the losses would be borne gradually over that period, costing the UK about 0.2-0.3% of GDP per year, on average.	如果脱欧最后演变成一个长达十年的过程，损失可以在此期间逐渐吸收，平均每年造成0. 2—0.


This could be very good news for the UK.	这对英国来说可能是极好的消息。


With a weaker currency, the country will benefit from an increase in export competitiveness that could offset those incremental losses and the transient investment weakness that is likely to arise.	英镑贬值后，英国将受益于出口竞争力的增加，出口竞争力的增加可以抵消渐增的损失和可能产生的暂时性投资低迷。


Other factors will also cushion the blow of Brexit.	其他因素也能缓冲英国脱欧的冲击。


Over the last two decades, the UK has transformed its economy to foster unprecedented specialization in services.	在过去二十年中，英国经济发生了转型，服务业专业化程度前所未有地高。


In the mid-1990s, goods exports were three times as important as services exports, and the majority of British exports went to the EU.	20世纪90年代中期，商品出口比服务出口重要两倍，而大部分英国出口流向了欧盟。


Nowadays, the UK exports mostly services – and mostly to non-EU markets.	如今，英国出口大部分是服务——并且大多流向非欧盟市场。


As a result, the internal market for goods is far less important for the UK today than it is for other EU countries.	因此，商品内部市场对英国的重要性远远不及其他欧盟国家。


The value-added contained in British goods exports to the EU accounts for only about 5% of GDP – several times less than for, say, Germany.	英国对欧盟出口品所包含的增加值仅占GDP的5%左右——比德国低好几倍。


Meanwhile, Britain’s non-EU exports account for about 7% of GDP.	与此同时，英国的非欧盟出口占GDP之比大约为7%。


The shift in UK goods exports away from the EU reflects a change in the sources of economic growth, with Asia, in particular, gaining primacy.	英国商品出口越来越多地流向欧盟以外的地区反映了经济增长源泉的变化，特别是亚洲重要性越来越大。


To some extent, other EU member states have also shifted their goods exports away from Europe, but the effect has been most pronounced in the UK.	从某种程度上讲，其他欧盟成员国的商品出口也在逐渐流出欧盟，但这一效应在英国身上最为明显。


The fact that the UK now relies more heavily on access to world markets than on access to the EU’s internal market surely contributed to the Brexit vote, as it minimized the sacrifice that the UK would have to make to regain control over hot-button issues like immigration.	英国现在依赖世界市场远甚于欧盟内部市场，这一事实显然推动了英国脱欧投票，因为这让英国为了重新控制移民等热点问题而付出的代价最小化了。


The belief that the UK could secure superior access to world markets on its own than as part of the EU also helped.	英国可以凭借自身力量而非作为欧盟的一部分确保进入世界市场的优先地位，这一信念也对英国脱欧投票起到了推动作用。


This is where the Brexit bet becomes riskier.	英国脱欧赌注的风险就在于此。


To be sure, approving trade deals will be much easier for the UK than it is for the EU, which requires agreement from 30 parliaments (including some regional ones).	诚然，批准贸易协议对英国来说要比欧盟容易得多，后者需要30个议会（包括一些地区级议会）的同意。


The political challenges that have impeded the approval of a relatively low-profile free-trade agreement with Canada exemplify this challenge.	相对低调的与加拿大的自由贸易协定因为政治原因而饱受批准阻力即是明证。


But the UK will also have less leverage in negotiations than the EU does, especially in dealing with large emerging economies.	但英国在谈判中所能利用的杠杆不如欧盟，特别是与大新兴经济体的谈判。


Similarly, the UK does not have to fear huge changes in its ability to export services to the EU, which currently accounts for about 40% of the UK total, because the EU’s internal services market already is far from open.	类似地，英国不必担心其向欧盟出口服务的能力发生巨大的变化——目前对欧服务出口占英国出口总量的40%左右——因为欧盟内部服务市场开放性已经非常低。


But there is one exception: financial services.	但有一个例外：金融业。


And it is a big one.	而金融业是英国服务出口的大头。


As it stands, financial services account for about one-third of Britain’s total services exports and two-thirds of the overall services surplus that the UK needs to pay for its deficit on goods.	目前，金融服务占英国总服务出口的三分之一左右，也占英国填补其商品出口赤字所需要的总服务出口盈余的三分之二。


The industry’s success is the result, at least partly, of the UK’s EU membership.	服务业的成功至少部分要归因于英国的欧盟成员地位。


The specialization of the UK economy and its external accounts toward financial services (and services in general) began when capital movements were liberalized under the internal market program of the 1990s.	英国经济的专业化及其外部账户向金融服务业（以及一般服务业）倾斜始于20世纪90年代内部市场计划带来的资本流动自由化。


It was accelerated with the introduction of the common currency, which, combined with the elimination of obstacles to cross-border capital flows and a global credit boom, fostered the concentration of many types of wholesale financial services in the City of London.	这一过程随着共同货币的引入而加速，欧元与跨境资本流动壁垒的消除以及全球信用繁荣一道，导致了多种批发金融服务向伦敦金融城集中。


The financial sector has a natural tendency to form clusters, and London – where English is spoken, the legal system is efficient, labor markets are flexible, and the regulatory regime is relatively streamlined – offered substantial advantages.	金融业有组成集群的天然倾向，而伦敦——这里说英语，法律制度效率高，劳动力市场灵活，监管机制相对合理——拥有巨大的优势。


Add to that the EU’s “passporting” system, which enables London-based banks to sell their services directly throughout the EU, and the growth of the city’s financial-services sector makes perfect sense – as does the fact that citizens of London voted overwhelmingly against Brexit.	此外还要归功于欧盟的“护照”制度，该制度使得位于伦敦的银行能够直接在整个欧盟销售服务，而伦敦金融城金融服务业的增长则是水到渠成——伦敦公民压倒性地反对英国脱欧亦是如此。


Yet the reality is that most of the advantages that have made London into a financial-services hub will remain even after Brexit.	但现实是让���敦成为金融服务枢纽的大部分优势即使在英国脱欧后仍然存在。


And the loss of passporting might be offset by the creation of subsidiaries or “bridgeheads” within the EU, such as Dublin, Frankfurt, or Paris.	而失去护照便利的损失可以通过在欧元区内（如都柏林、法兰克福或巴黎）建立分支或“桥头堡”抵消。


London’s financial-services industry could therefore survive Brexit, though it is unlikely that it will maintain its previous vigor.	因此，伦敦金融服务业可以承受英国脱欧，尽管保持此前的活力希望不大。


Indeed, no matter what terms the UK negotiates with the EU, it will probably have to change its growth model, probably through a modest revival of manufacturing, among other things.	事实上，不管英国与欧盟谈判什么条件，其增长模式都有可能必须改变，其中一个可能性是通过复兴制造业实现。


Given decades of decline in British manufacturing, this would be easier said than done.	英国制造业衰落已有好几十年，复兴说起来容易做起来难。


But, if the country doesn’t manage such a rebalancing, the long-term cost of Brexit might turn out to be substantially higher than current estimates.	但是，如果英国不成功地实现再平衡，英国脱欧的长期成本就有可能显著高于当前估计。


The expansion of the financial-services industry – which creates few, but very highly paid, jobs – has contributed to rising income inequality, which has been more pronounced in the UK than elsewhere in the EU.	金融服务业的扩张——它能带来为数甚少但收入极高的工作岗位——导致了收入不平等的加剧，收入不平等在英国比在欧盟其他地区更加明显。


And inequality helped fuel the widespread frustration with globalization and the so-called “establishment elites” that carried the Brexit campaign to victory.	而不平等性助长了对全球化和所谓“建制精英”的普遍不满，这正是英国脱欧阵营取得胜利的原因。


In this sense, one of the major economic benefits of the UK’s EU membership led the British to reject the project.	照此看，英国的欧盟成员资格的一个主要经济好处最后导致了它拒绝欧洲工程。


The question is whether the economic changes that Brexit will necessitate will produce the benefits for British workers that the “Leave” campaign promised.	问题在于因为英国脱欧而变得势在必行的经济变革是否能为英国工人带来“脱欧”阵营许诺的好处。


The answer remains far from clear.	答案还远未可知。


The Greening of African Technology	非洲技术的绿色化进程


JOHANNESBURG – Technological innovation offers Africa huge possibilities.	约翰内斯堡——技术创新为非洲提供了巨大的可能性。


That is why I joined Africa’s movers and shakers last week at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda.	这就是我上周在卢旺达首都基加利举行的世界经济论坛会议上加入非洲影响力运动的原因。


We were there to discuss how the digital economy can propel the kind of radical change the continent needs.	我们在会上就数字经济如何才能推动非洲大陆所需的激进变革展开了讨论。


At the same time, though, we had to think about some old tools that our ancestors passed down to us – namely, how to think for the long term and how to work together.	但同时，我们要思索祖先留给我们哪些古老的工具——也就是说如何放眼长远及如何协力合作。


These tools are a form of technology that we need to use now, so that future generations have a chance.	我们现在要运用以这些工具为代表的技术形式才能将机会留给子孙后代。


Climate change is the ultimate test of whether we can use the old and new technologies to safeguard our children’s future.	气候变化是我们能否利用新旧工具来保护子孙后代未来的一次终极考验。


Africans must take decisive action to combat the threat of global warming, by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and by helping one another to adapt to climate change.	非洲人必须通过减少温室气体排放和帮助彼此适应气候变化，从而采取果断行动应对全球变暖的威胁。


If we fail to make progress in these areas now, future generations will judge our inaction as expensive, unjust, and immoral.	如果我们现在无法在这些领域取得进展，子孙后代将会认为我们的不作为代价昂贵、不公正也不道德。


Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change.	非洲是面对气候变化最弱势的地区之一。


Yet it accounts for only 2.3% of global CO2 emissions.	但它却仅占全球二氧化碳排放的2.


That is partly because two-thirds of Africans – 621 million people – do not have access to electricity.	3%，部分原因是三分之二的非洲人口（6. 21亿）还没有用上电。


To meet the double challenge of climate change and this energy deficit, African countries need to help themselves and one another.	为应对气候变化和能源短缺的双重挑战，非洲国家必须自助互助。


Developed countries – the major contributors to global warming – must live up to the promises they made at the COP21 climate talks in Paris last December.	发达国家——全球变暖的主要贡献者——一定要兑现他们去年十二月在巴黎联合国气候会谈中所作出的承诺。


Alongside reacquainting ourselves with old-tech methods of thinking about the long run and working together, new technology is essential if Africa is to cope with climate change.	非洲要想应对气候变化，除着眼长远、齐心合力等古老的技术方法外，新技术也同样不可或缺。


Innovations in biotechnology and farming methods are needed to deal with disease, pests, and drought.	必须在生物技术和耕作方法领域进行创新，才能应对疾病、干旱和虫害的威胁。


New technology can also help Africa to leapfrog over dependence on fossil fuels and into a low-carbon future.	新技术也可以协助非洲跃过对化石燃料的依赖 ，一举跨入新的低碳未来。


The continent has a great opportunity to develop new low-carbon energy strategies that build resilience and support growth that benefits everyone, reducing poverty faster.	非洲大陆拥有建设快速脱贫、并让所有人都从中受益的能在适应各种环境的同时支持经济增长的全新低碳能源战略的大好机会。


We show how this can be done in the 2015 Africa Progress Report, “Power People Planet: Seizing Africa’s Energy and Climate Opportunities.”	我们在2015年度非洲进步报告“为全球民众提供动力：抓住非洲的能源和气候机会”中为此树立了榜样。


Renewable sources will replace fossil fuels gradually.	可再生能源将逐步取代化石燃料。


It cannot happen overnight.	这个过程不会一蹴而就。


Africa needs a judicious and dynamic energy mix.	非洲需要探索明智并充满活力的能源结构。


Most of all, it needs much more energy, now: Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, excluding South Africa, currently generates less electricity than Spain.	最重要的是，非洲现在就需要更多能源：除南非外的撒哈拉以南非洲加在一起，目前发电量还不如西班牙多。


The state of education in Africa is one telling consequence of the continent’s energy crisis.	非洲的教育状况是这块大陆能源危机的一个显著后果。


I have worked in education most of my life, as a teacher and minister of education in Mozambique.	我以莫桑比克一名老师和教育部长的身份将一生的大部分精力投入了教育工作。


Experience has taught me that a country’s schools are the key to its success and prosperity.	经验告诉我一个国家的学校是其成功和繁荣的关键。


Yet in many African countries, 80% of primary schools do not have electricity, severely compromising the quality of instruction.	但在许多非洲国家，80%的小学没有电，而这严重影响了教育的开展。


Shortages of electricity also cost lives.	非洲人还为电力短缺付出了生命的代价。


Almost four in five Africans rely for cooking on solid biomass, mainly wood and charcoal.	近五分之四的非洲人依赖固体生物质，主要是木材和木炭做饭。


As a result, more than 600,000 people die each year from household air pollution.	结果导致每年超过60万人死于室内空气污染。


Efficient cooking stoves would save them, liberate millions of girls and women from the chore of gathering firewood, and generate wide-ranging environmental benefits.	节能炉灶能让这些人幸免于难，将数百万妇女和女童从砍柴等琐事中解放出来，并产生大范围的环境效益。


The steps that Africa’s leaders need to take are clear.	非洲领导人需要采取的步骤非常明确。


Long-term national interest must take precedence over short-term political goals, vested interests, and political patronage.	必须将长期的国家利益置于短期政治目标、既得利益和政治庇护之上。


African leaders need to root out graft, make the governance of energy utilities – some of which have been centers of corruption and inefficiency – more transparent, strengthen regulations, and increase public spending on energy infrastructure.	非洲领导人需要铲除贪污，加强能源公用事业治理（其中某些已经成为腐败和效率低下的核心）透明度、强化法律法规并加大对能源基础设施的公共投入。