Arabs throughout the region, though preoccupied with domestic affairs, are nonetheless pressing a new generation of leaders to support the Palestinian cause more actively.	整个阿拉伯地区虽然内顾不暇，但仍然产生了新一代更为积极地支持巴勒斯坦的领导人。


The collapse of Hosni Mubarak’s regime in Egypt, the subsequent departure of the Israeli ambassador from Cairo, the political upheaval in Syria, and the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador from Ankara are causing great uncertainty in Israeli leadership circles.	穆巴拉克体制在埃及的倒台及其后以色列大使离开开罗、叙利亚的政治动荡，以及土耳其驱逐以色列大使，这些事件在以色列领导层中间造成了极大的不确定性。


Israel is more isolated regionally and internationally than ever, owing to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu diplomatic failures.	以色列在中东地区和国际社会上从未像今天这样孤立，而造成以色列孤立的原因是其总理内塔尼亚胡失败的外交活动。


Abbas, whose bid is supported unanimously by the Arab and most Islamic countries, is convinced that the Arabs will stand with the Palestinians, regardless of the consequences.	阿巴斯的入联申请获得了阿拉伯地区和绝大多数伊斯兰国家的一致支持，这使他信心满满，相信不管结果如何，阿拉伯都会站在巴勒斯坦一边。


More than 120 countries are believed to support the Palestinian bid for statehood.	据信有超过120个国家将支持巴勒斯坦的建国动议。


But the Palestinians must secure the approval of the UN Security Council and the support of two-thirds of the UN General Assembly in order to gain full official recognition.	但巴勒斯坦人必须确保联合国安理会通过这项动议，然后在联合国大会获得三分之二以上多数赞成票，以获得完全的正式认可。


The US has threatened to veto the resolution in the Security Council, and the US Congress has threatened to suspend American aid to the Palestinian Authority.	美国已经放话要在安理会投否决票，此外，美国国会还威胁将中止美国对巴勒斯坦权力机构的援助。


Members of the European Union are still divided and continue to hope for a compromise and other options.	欧盟成员国尚未达成一致，它们仍在寄希望于形成妥协或其他方案。


Israel has denounced the Palestinian strategy as a unilateral initiative, and has threatened the Palestinians with severe reprisals.	以色列谴责巴勒斯坦的这一策略属于单方面行动，并威胁将对巴勒斯坦人施加严厉报复。


Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman suggested canceling the Oslo Accords, signed with the Palestine Liberation Organization in September 1993, which provided the basis for the creation of the Palestinian Authority in 1994.	以色列外长利伯曼（Avigdor Lieberman）建议废除1993年9月与巴勒斯坦解放组织签署的奥斯陆协议（巴勒斯坦权力机构正是根据该协议于1994年成立的）。


Israel is also considering a suspension of transfers of Palestinian tax and customs revenues, and has threatened to annex parts of the West Bank.	以色列还在考虑中止巴勒斯坦税收和关税转移，并威胁会强行占领部分约旦河西岸地区。


At the same time, Hamas suspects that Abbas’s effort to gain UN recognition is intended to impose pressure on Netanyahu to revive peace negotiations on the basis of the 1967 borders, a position that Hamas rejects.	与此同时，哈马斯认为阿巴斯争取联合国承认的努力是为了给内塔尼亚胡施压，从而重启基于1967年边境线的和平谈判。 哈马斯是不承认1967年边境线的。


Hamas believes that if Israel were to come under pressure and, for example, freeze settlement construction, Abbas’s position would be strengthened.	哈马斯认为，如果以色列承受了压力，并（比方说）因此停止定居点建设，那么阿巴斯的地位就会得到加强。


Hamas slammed Abbas’s speech at the UN and his bid for statehood, because it relinquishes 78% of historic Palestine and endangers Palestinian refugees’ right of return.	哈马斯猛烈地抨击了阿巴斯在联合国的演讲及其建国动议，因为在阿巴斯的动议放弃了78%的巴勒斯坦历史领土，而且会威胁到巴勒斯坦难民回国的权利。


Meanwhile, the significance of the reconciliation agreement signed last May by Hamas and Fatah, the secular nationalist movement that controls the Palestinian Authority, remains uncertain.	与此同时，去年5月哈马斯和法塔赫（控制着巴勒斯坦权力机构的世俗民族主义运动）和解协议的重要性依然充满了不确定性。


While some commentators were hopeful that the agreement meant that Hamas would give its tacit support to Abbas’s negotiating strategy, this is doubtful.	一些观察者寄希望于这一协议意味着哈马斯将心照不宣地支持阿巴斯的谈判策略，但是否果真如此值得怀疑。


Indeed, Hamas is convinced that any success for Abbas and the Palestinian Authority will further discredit its rule and increase its isolation in besieged Gaza.	事实上，哈马斯认定，阿巴斯和巴勒斯坦权力机构的任何成功都会进一步破坏其规则的名誉，同时进一步增加深陷重围的加沙的孤立。


Hamas’s support for Palestinian statehood within the 1967 borders would convey at least indirect recognition of Israel.	哈马斯若支持巴勒斯坦按1967年边境线建国，则至少是间接地承认了以色列。


Yet Hamas continues to reject territorial concessions, insisting that all of historic Palestine must be under Muslim jurisdiction.	但哈马斯仍然拒绝在领土问题上让步，坚持整个历史上的巴勒斯坦都必须由伊斯兰教统治。


The Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, suffering for more than four years from siege and isolation, are apathetic to the UN bid.	加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人已经承受了4年多的包围和孤立，但他们对入联动议无动于衷。


They already feel alienated from the state-building efforts on the West Bank by Salam Fayyad’s government.	法耶兹政府在约旦河西岸的建国努力让已经他们感到颇为离心。


Poverty and unemployment have left them frustrated and desperate, and the slowdown in implementing the Hamas-Fatah reconciliation agreement gives them little hope of meaningful change.	贫困和失业让他们感到沮丧和绝望，哈马斯-法塔赫和解协议迟迟得不到落实让他们对实质性变化感到希望渺茫。


If Palestine does achieve full UN membership, Palestinians recognize that it will be little more than symbolic.	就算巴勒斯坦真的获得了联合国完全成员国资格，巴勒斯坦人也会认为这更多地只具有象征意义。


After all, more than 100 countries already recognized Palestine after Yasser Arafat declared the establishment of a state on November 15, 1988.	毕竟，自1988年11月15日阿拉法特宣布建国以来，已有100多个国家承认了巴勒斯坦。


Moreover, Palestinians are not convinced that UN recognition will change their daily lives as long as the international community takes no action to end the Israeli occupation on the West Bank and the siege and blockade of Gaza.	此外，只要国际社会不采取行动终止以色列侵占约旦河西岸并对加沙实施包围封锁，巴勒斯坦人就不会认为联合国承认其国家地位能改变他们的日常生活。


However, the Palestinian bid at the UN will internationalize the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and discredit US mediating leverage.	不过，巴勒斯坦人的入联动议能够将巴以冲突国际化，削弱美国的调停作用。


As always, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict stands perched between diplomacy and violence.	与往常一样，巴以冲突的形式在外交和暴力之间摇摆不定。


It remains for the US, working with Israel and the international community, to break this logjam and press forward toward a settlement.	打破这一僵局、促进和谈前进还得依靠美国（以及以色列和国际社会的协助）。


But the ultimate failure of Abbas’s diplomatic strategy – the absence of tangible benefits even if it succeeds – will damage what is left of his credibility among the Palestinians and strengthen Hamas’s political clout.	但阿巴斯外交策略最大的失败之处是，即使成功了也看不到有形的好处，这会损害他在巴勒斯坦人心中的信誉，加强哈马斯的政治影响力。


A National Security Blind Spot	国家安全盲点


WASHINGTON, DC – Erin Saltman saw a disturbing trend.	华盛顿—— 艾琳·索特曼注意到某种令人不安的趋势。


For months, the senior counter-extremism researcher at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue had obsessively tracked the profiles of more than 130 Western women who had joined the Islamic State (ISIS).	几个月来，战略对话研究所的高级反极端主义研究员痴迷地研究了加入伊斯兰国（ISIS）的130多名西方女性的履历。


Saltman and her team noticed that instead of journeying through Turkey to reach ISIS headquarters in Syria, the women were heading straight to Libya.	索特曼及其团队注意到，这些女性并未穿过土耳其去往伊斯兰国设在叙利亚的总部，而是直奔利比亚境内。


Because women’s roles within ISIS are related mostly to reproduction and consolidating territory, Saltman was able to deduce the reason: “ISIS wasn’t just looking to have combat forces in Libya, but also to build statehood there,” she explained.	因为女性在伊斯兰国所扮演的角色主要与繁衍后代和巩固领土有关，索特曼推断出的原因是：“伊斯兰国不仅要在利比亚建立战斗部队，而且还要在那里建国，”她解释说。


“We flagged and highlighted that before security forces were aware of it.”	“我们抢在安全机构意识到之前就指出并强调了这个问题。 ”


To Saltman, investing time and money to think about the differences between men’s and women’s movement in ISIS wasn’t “about gender equality.	对索特曼而言，投入时间和金钱来思考伊斯兰国男女运动的差异并不是“为了性别平等。


It was about having a better grasp on the security issues at hand.”	而是为了更好地理解现实的安全问题。 ”


It’s a radical idea.	这是个激进的想法。


Considering the divergent ways men and women might act, think, or respond is not just ticking a politically correct box.	思考男性和女性可能行动、思考或采取对策的不同方式绝非仅仅为了达到政治正确的目的。


It can actually help us craft better policy and identify emerging threats.	它实际可以帮助我们制定更好的政策并找到新出现的威胁。


Yet many policymakers in the United States and around the world still don’t seem able to grasp that examining the behavior of women and men alike can improve their analysis and their proposed measures.	但美国和世界各地的众多决策者似乎仍然无法理解同时研究女性和男性的行为模式可以提高他们的分析能力并改进他们所提出的措施。


New America recently conducted unprecedented research to find out whether and how, after nearly two decades of research, data, and advocacy has crystallized the crucial linkage between gender and national security, US officials consider it when formulating policy.	新美国基金会最近开展了前所未有的研究，以了解在近二十年的研究、数据和宣传已明确展现性别与国家安全之间存在某种关键联系后，美国官员在制定政策时是否会考虑上述因素，以及是如何考虑的。


The short answer is: they mostly don’t.	答案简言之是基本不考虑。


That’s akin to a nearsighted person choosing to forgo glasses when surveying a new landscape.	这就好比近视者选择不戴眼镜来观察新的环境。


Ignoring the impact that gender differences have on policy effectiveness is reckless and risky.	忽略性别差异对政策有效性的影响是鲁莽和冒险的。


Many countries, including the US, pay lip service.	许多国家，包括美国在内，都只停留在嘴上说说而已。


Nearly 80 countries have adopted a National Action Plan to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325, which sets forth a blueprint for engaging women in all aspects of security policy.	近80国已经通过一项执行联合��安理会第1325号决议的国家行动计划，该决议全面制定了女性参与安全政策方方面面的蓝图。


But action plans have not translated into active consideration of the gender-differentiated effects of policies.	但上述行动计划并未转化为对政策性别差异效应的积极思索。


According to our research, policymakers think they are overcoming their gender blind spot because more women are sitting around the table.	根据我们的研究，决策者认为他们正在克服性别盲点，因为更多女性正加入到决策队伍中。


Including more women on decision-making teams, it is assumed, will automatically integrate gender considerations into policy.	据认为，让更多女性进入到决策小组能自动让性别因素融入到政策当中。


That assumption has yet to be proved.	这种假设仍然有待证明。


Quite the contrary.	恰恰相反。


Consider Germany’s refugee and immigration policies.	以德国的难民和移民政策为例。


Although Germany has a National Action Plan, is 11th on the Global Gender Gap Index (which ranks countries on levels of gender equality), and has a strong female chancellor and its first-ever female defense minister, it still failed at first to consider how its policy might have different effects on men and women.	虽然德国制定了国家行动计划，在全球性别差异指数排行榜上排名第11位（根据性别平等水平来给各国排位），并拥有一位强势女总理和有史以来首位女性国防部长，它起初仍然未曾考虑过其国内政策可能会对男女造成不同影响的问题。


For example, most government refugee shelters didn’t provide gender-exclusive toilets and showers – a disaster for women from conservative Islamic backgrounds.	比如，多数由政府主办的难民庇护所并未提供区分性别的浴室和厕所——这对来自保守伊斯兰环境的女性不啻具有灾难性。


Likewise, the intensive language program the government required for migrants didn’t account for women’s inability to attend class without childcare.	同样，政府针对移民的强化语言课程也没有考虑到没有托儿服务女性就无法参加的问题。


Ultimately, such failures made those policies less effective for the entire population, and could lead to long-term security consequences for Germany.	最终，这些失误导致上述政策就整体而言不那么有效，并且可能为德国带来长期的安全后果。


Our interviews also suggest that some policymakers still regard gender-blindness positively: not thinking about the possible gender-specific effects of policies, they believe, contributes to an atmosphere of greater gender equality.	我们的访问还表明某些决策者仍盲目认为性别盲点具有积极意义：他们认为不考虑政策可能产生的性别影响有助于在更大程度上营造性别平等的氛围。


But decades of research have shown that inclusion and equality should not mean ignoring differences between underrepresented groups.	但几十年的研究表明包容和平等不应意味着忽视弱势群体与主流群体之间的差异。


“The consequence of policy is often the same for men and women,” one respondent told our research partners at POLITICO Focus.	一位受访者告诉我们政客关注机构的研究者，“政策往往会对男性和女性产生同样的后果。


“Hearing myself say that gives me pause.	”“我自己说这番话的时候都禁不住感到犹豫。


I have no idea what that conclusion is actually based on — am I just regurgitating the company line?”	我不知道这个结论究竟是基于什么——难道我只是在重复企业的宣传词？ ”


In fact, the consequence of policy often isn’t the same for men and women, in part because they tend to have unequal access to opportunities and resources.	其实政策后果对男性和女性往往不尽相同，部分因为他们往往在机会和资源的获取能力上存在很大差异。


But policymakers often claim an absence of data about different impacts, particularly data that can be mapped onto national security objectives.	但决策者往往声称缺乏关于不同影响的数据，特别是缺乏可以用于制定国家安全目标的数据。


“It’s difficult to break things down by gender impact,” one person said.	“很难按照性别影响来制定政策，”某人说。


“Human rights and aid organizations are better at this; our [national security] tools aren’t that granular.	“在这方面更加擅长的是人权和援助组织； 我们的[国家安全]工具做不到那么细致。


And oftentimes, you’re measuring success anecdotally when it comes to things like gender and education data.”	通常当涉及到性别和教育数据等问题时，你只能以讲故事的方式来衡量成功问题。


But plenty of research cements the gender and security connection.	但大量的研究成果证实了性别与安全间的确存在联系。


Data2X, WomanStats, and Inclusive Security are just a few of the many organizations that have made it their mission to gather in global databases this kind of gender-differentiated data and research, providing irrefutable and empirical proof that women’s status is inextricably linked to state power, stability, corruption, prosperity, and many other indicators.	Data2X、WomanStats和Inclusive Security仅仅是众多机构中的一小部分，它们以在全球数据库中搜集这种不同性别的数据和研究并提供无可辩驳的实证证据，证明女性状况与国家实力、稳定、腐败、繁荣和其他许多指标密不可分为己任。


In other words, weak, unstable, corrupt, and poor states are states where women’s status is low.	换言之，衰弱、动荡、腐败和贫穷的国家妇女地位低。


Most policymakers would draw the conclusion that strengthening and cleaning up government and promoting economic growth will improve the status of women.	大多数决策者的结论是强化清理政府和促进经济增长能够提升女性地位。


But what if the causal arrows run in the opposite direction?	但如果因果之箭运行的方向相反又会产生什么样的后果？


Unlike our policymakers, ISIS is not waiting for more data. It actively exploits gender inequality to aid recruitment and operations.	与决策者不同的是，伊斯兰国不会等待更多数据，而是利用性别不平等来协助自身的招募和运营工作。


In societies where women are treated like second-class citizens, ISIS has an easier time recruiting women with its quasi-female empowerment propaganda, like one image that shows a woman clad in a burqa with the words “Covered girl...because I’m worth it.”	在妇女被视为二等公民的社会里，伊斯兰国能够更轻松地利用似是而非的女性赋权宣传来进行女性招募，比如有一幅画画着一位身着长袍的女性，宣传词是“蒙面女孩. .


Once women have committed, they may be able to avoid suspicion and pass through security checkpoints more easily; security officials and policymakers still overwhelmingly view women exclusively as non-threatening victims of violent conflicts.	”一旦女性效忠组织，她们就能躲过怀疑，更轻松地通过安全检查站； 绝大多数安全官员和决策者仍将女性视为暴力冲突中不具威胁的受害者。


International policymakers need to think about gender, too, in the fight against ISIS – and across all other national-security and foreign-policy contexts.	国际决策者也必须在与伊斯兰国的斗争及所有国家安全和外交政策的背景下思考性别问题。


It is certainly important to have women at the table.	当然，让女性参与决策非常重要。


But it is equally important that all policymakers discuss the women who aren’t there and never will be.	但同样重要的是全体决策者探讨不在场也永远不可能在场的那些女性的问题。


The Right Diet for Gender Equality	用正确的饮食促进性别平等


COPENHAGEN – During the last century, the battle to secure equality for women and girls has been fought in the classroom, in the voting booth, and in the boardrooms of Fortune 500 companies.	哥本哈根—在过去的一个世纪里，确保妇女和女孩平等性的斗争在教室、投票站和《财富》500强公司董事会中进行着。


But if gender inequality is ever to be abolished, we can no longer afford to neglect one of its major causes and consequences: malnutrition.	但想要根除性别不平等，就不能忽视其主要原因和后果之一：营养。


Right now, a staggering 1.6 billion people worldwide suffer from anemia, a condition strongly connected to iron deficiency – and one of the symptoms of a global nutrition crisis that disproportionally affects women.	目前，全世界高达16亿人罹患贫血，这种病症与缺铁关系很大，它是全球营养危机的症状之一，并且大部分出现在妇女身上。


Indeed, anemia afflicts twice as many women as men – nearly one in three women and girls worldwide – and contributes to one-fifth of all maternal deaths.	事实上，妇女贫血率是男性的两倍——全球近三分之一的妇女和女孩患有贫血。 贫血也是占了孕产妇死亡原因的整整五分之一。


In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed a target to reduce the rate of anemia by 50% by 2025.	2012年，世界卫生大会提出了到2025年将贫血率降低一半的目标。


But, at the current rate of progress, this target will not be reached until 2124.	但是，以当前的进展速度，这一目标要到2124年才能实现。


Despite hard-won gains for women, we remain a century behind schedule on an issue that is key to their health and development – and to that of their children.	尽管我们历尽艰辛为妇女赢得了不少权益，但对于这个她们——以及她们的孩子的健康和发育的关键问题，我们仍然比计划落后了一百年。


But there is hope.	但也有希望。


If we invest in better nutrition now, we can ensure a brighter future for girls and women everywhere – for the next hundred years and beyond.	如果我们从现在开始投资于改善营养，就能为世界各地的女孩和妇女确保未来一百年甚至更长时间前景更加光明。


We can no longer treat gender discrimination and malnutrition as separate issues.	我们不能再将性别歧视和营养不良分别对待。


The two are inextricably linked; they reinforce each another in a pattern that touches women at every stage of their lives.	这两个问题密不可分； 它们互相强化，影响着所有年龄阶段的妇女。


Malnutrition – in all of its forms – is both a cause and an effect of the profound power imbalance between men and women.	营养不良——所有形式的营养不良——既是男女权力重大失衡的原因，也是它的结果。


Gender inequality begins in the womb.	性别不平等从子宫里就开始了。


Every year, 16 million adolescent girls give birth, most in low- and middle-income countries.	每年都有1,600万少女生产，大部分是中低收入国家的少女。


If a mother lives in an area where stunting rates are high and she is in her mid-teens, her child is more likely to be stunted – and thus more susceptible to disease and largely irreversible cognitive underdevelopment, adversely affecting their ability to benefit from education and reach their full potential.	如果一位母亲生活在发育不良率较高的地区，并且十多岁就生孩子，那么她的孩子就更有可能营养不良——从而也更容易罹患疾病和很难逆转的认知发育不良，从而影响到他们受益于教育、实现全部潜力的能力。


These children will usually go on to earn less, which increases their likelihood of living in poverty, being malnourished, and, as a result, facing a higher risk of developing chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension later in life.	这些孩子通常将来收入也较低，这意味着他们更有可能生活在贫困中，遭遇营养不良，从而在长大后面临更高的罹患糖尿病和高血压等慢性疾病的风险。


And, given the societal and economic biases against women in most countries, these early life circumstances place girls at an even more severe disadvantage.	此外，由于大部分国家对妇女存在社会和经济偏见，这些生命早期的环境将进一步加剧女孩所处的劣势。


The cycle then repeats itself; these disempowered and malnourished women give birth to stunted babies, perpetuating the cycle of inequality.	然后，这一循环周而复始； 能力低下和营养不良的妇女生育发育不良的孩子，不平等循环永久持续。


To improve nutrition outcomes for girls and women, we need to scale up proven nutrition interventions and ensure that other development programs take nutrition into account.	要改善女孩和妇女的营养状况，我们需要加大可靠营养干预的规模，确保其他发展计划将营养问题考虑在内。


It is critical, for example, that we promote early and immediate breastfeeding – an incredibly powerful tool against both stunting and obesity.	比如，推广早期和立即母乳喂养至关重要，母乳喂养是应对对发育不良和肥胖的非常有力的工具。


Development policies and programs must also take gender imbalances into consideration.	发展政策和计划还必须考虑性别失衡问题。


Social protection programs that improve women’s control of income transfers, for example, are linked to better nutrition outcomes for them and their families.	比如，改善妇女对收入转移支付的控制的社会保障计划能给妇女和她们的家庭带来更好的营养状况。


In many countries, women eat last in the family, reducing their chances of getting the right nutrition.	在许多国家，妇女是家中最后一个吃的人，这降低了她们获得正确营养的机会。


Maternity and breastfeeding provisions are also weak, making it difficult for women to nurse their children.	孕产妇和哺乳供应也很薄弱，导致妇女难以哺育她们的孩子。


Behavior-change programs, communication, and role modeling can all be helpful in weakening the grip of harmful social norms concerning nutrition and gender.	改变行为的计划、沟通和角色模式塑造都有助于削弱有害的营养和性别社会规范的控制。


Accomplishing this will require a blueprint for political action.	实现这一点需要整治行动蓝图。


On June 14, the 2016 Global Nutrition Report will launch globally.	6月14日，2016年《全球营养报告》（Global Nutrition Report）将进行全球发布。


The report aims to assess progress, improve accountability for meeting global commitments, and recommend actions for government and key stakeholders to end all forms of malnutrition by 2030.	该报告旨在评估进展，改善全球承诺实现情况的可问责性，并为政府和重要相关利益方提供关于到2030年消灭一切形式的营养不良的行动建议。


The conversation must begin today.	对话必须从现在开始。


This week, the Women Deliver 2016 Conference – the largest meeting of girls’ and women’s advocates in a decade – is taking place in Copenhagen.	本周，十年来最大的一次女孩和妇女支持者大会——2016年妇女分娩会议（Women Deliver 2016 Conference）正在哥本哈根举行。


More than 5,000 global leaders, policymakers, and advocates from 150 countries are convening to discuss, among other issues, how to break the cycle of poverty and gender inequality that undermines women’s health.	来自150个国家的5,000多名全球领导人、决策者和支持者与会讨论如何打破损害妇女健康的贫困和性别不平等的循环以及其他问题。


The call for action to sever the link between nutrition and gender inequality must be loud enough to echo around the world.	必须以足够强的声音要求打破营养和性别不平等之间的联系，这样才能在全世界引起回响。


We must eliminate all factors that perpetuate gender inequality.	我们必须消除让性别不平等永久化的一切因素。


And that starts with better nutrition for all.	而起点便是为所有人提供更好的营养。


The next century of progress depends on it.	未来一个世纪的进步取决于这一点。


The Unfinished Sexual Revolution	照顾的性别政治


WASHINGTON, DC – In the United States, the revolution for equality between men and women is stuck halfway.	华盛顿——美国的男女平等革命仍在进行中。


Over the past 50 years, women’s roles have changed dramatically, with almost 60% of American women now in the workforce.	过去50年，妇女的角色发生了巨大的变化，近60%的美国妇女进入到劳动力市场。


Men’s roles, however, have barely budged.	但男性的角色却几乎没有任何变化。


Despite insisting on the equal dignity and value of men and women, we still regard men’s traditional work of breadwinning as more valuable and important than women’s traditional work of caregiving.	尽管坚持平等看待男女的尊严和价值，我们仍然认为男性传统上承担的养家糊口责任比女性传统上承担的照顾责任更为重要。


The result is a profound social and economic imbalance that is holding back women and men alike.	由此产生的深刻的社会和经济不平衡同样阻碍着男女的进步。


The solution is to focus less on women and more on elevating the value of care and expanding the roles and choices open to men.	解决的重点是要减少对女性的关注，转而提升照顾工作的价值，并扩大男性可能的角色选择。


Electing and appointing more women to powerful roles remains essential.	选举任命更多女性走上领导岗位固然重要。


But focusing on women’s advancement is biased toward tracking how many are rising to the top: the overall percentage at work, their average salaries, and how many become CEOs, senior managers, tenured professors, bankers, surgeons, law partners, parliamentarians, presidents, and ministers.	但对女性进步的关注偏向于跟踪有多少女性身居要职：包括总体就业比例、平均工资、有多少担任首席执行官、高管、终身教授、银行家、医生、合伙律师、议员、总统和部长。


A focus on care, by contrast, opens the door to the dual problem of too few women at the top and far too many at the bottom.	相反，关注照顾责任才是解决极少数女性抵达上层而绝大多数则身处底层的双重问题的关键。


American women hold less than 15% of executive-level positions in Fortune 500 companies and 62% of minimum-wage jobs.	美国女性仅占财富500强企业管理职位的不到15%， 却在最低工资岗位中占到62%。


As a result, one in three adult women are living in or on the edge of poverty, with the picture especially bleak for single mothers, almost two-thirds of whom are working in dead-end, poorly compensated jobs without flexibility or benefits.	结果是每三名成年女性就有一名生活在贫困边缘，单身母亲的境况尤其糟糕。 三分之二的单身母亲都在从事没有升职空间、低薪且没有弹性和福利的工作。


What is common to both sets of women, and all the women in between, is that they are still charged with primary responsibility for caregiving – for children, parents, and other family members – in a system that devalues and provides little support for the care work they do.	上述两种极端情况和身处其间所有女性的共同之处是她们在轻视和极少支持她们工作的体制下依然承担着照顾子女、父母和其他家庭成员的主要责任。


Although wealthy women can and do buy the care work of poorer women, many also choose to work part-time or flexibly to provide the stimulation and education their children need.	虽然富裕女性可以也确实付钱给贫困女性承担照顾工作，但也有很多人选择兼职或弹性工作以便履行子女的鼓励和教育职责。


But many professional women’s career advancement is systematically blocked should they choose this path.	但如果职业女性选择这条道路，她们的职业发展前景就会彻底遇阻。


If a young female lawyer or banker on a promising career track decides to leave the office “early” every day to be home with her kids for dinner, work part-time, or take time out to be a full-time caregiver, she is quickly knocked out of the competition for top jobs.	如果有着诱人职业前景的一位年轻女律师或银行家决定每天“提早”离开办公室、回家陪孩子共进晚餐、或者她决定从事兼职工作或抽时间成为全职“照顾者”，她很快就会被淘汰出对高层职位的竞争。


And if she decides to devote herself to full-time caregiving, that time becomes a black mark on her résumé, a hole that she must vainly try to hide or explain away if and when she tries to re-enter the job market.	如果她决定成为全职主妇，那段时间就会成为她简历上的一个污点，在重返就业市场时她必须对此进行隐瞒或徒劳地试图做出解释。


A woman at the bottom faces an even harsher reality.	底层妇女面临更加严峻的现实。


She is likely to be a single mother who has no choice but to be the sole breadwinner and caregiver for her family.	她可能是位单身母亲，注定要成为家庭唯一的经济支柱兼照顾者。


Half of single mothers in the US make less than $25,000 a year.	美国半数的单身母亲年收入不到25,000美元。


Compared to single parents in other high-income countries, American single parents have the highest poverty rate and the weakest income-support system.	与其他高收入国家的单身家长相比，美国的单身家长贫困率最高、收入支持制度最薄弱。


No US state provides affordable daycare, early education, and after-school programs that take up the caregiving slack.	没有哪个州提供廉价幼儿园、早教和弥补照顾时间不足的课外活动。


Only a few states provide paid leave that any worker can use when a child is sick.	只有少数几个州规定在孩子生病时任何员工都可以带薪休假。


The result is that a mother with dependent children must patch together an unstable and unreliable network of caregivers in ways that sharply hamper her ability to succeed at her job and climb out of poverty.	结果是要抚养孩子的母亲必须拼凑起不稳定也不可靠的几个照顾者，从而严重影响她脱贫和在工作上取得成功。


Other advanced industrial countries are far ahead of the US in providing an entire infrastructure of care to help families invest in the next generation and care for their own parents.	其他发达工业国家在提供完整基础设施协助家庭投资于下一代和照顾父母方面远远领先于美国。


Indeed, virtually every developing country in the world is ahead of the US in at least requiring paid maternity leave.	事实上，世界几乎所有发展中国家都至少在规定带薪产假方面领先于美国。


But before foreign observers get too smug, consider the other solution to America’s unfinished revolution.	但在国外观察家沾沾自喜之前，想想美国未完成革命的其他方案。


Valuing care means valuing it enough to expect men to take on caregiving responsibilities to the same extent that we now expect women to take on breadwinning.	重视照顾工作意味着要求男性像现在女性承担养家糊口责任一样同等程度地承担起照顾职责。


Of course, any couple will divide up breadwinning and caregiving work according to their individual circumstances and personalities.	当然，任何夫妇都会根据具体情况和个性分配好养家糊口和照顾的工作。


In a genuinely equal world, men and women would approach this division of labor the same way a same-sex couple does.	���真正平等的世界里，男人和女人都会以与同性夫妇同样的方式对待这样的劳动分配。


When it is two men or two women figuring out how to provide an income for their family and to turn that income into the food, shelter, clothing, nurture, education, discipline, and moral support needed to raise children, they cannot rely on societally imposed default roles.	当然，如果是两个男人或者两个女人希望找到为家庭提供收入的方式并把上述收入转化为抚养子女所需的食物、服装、住房、培养、教育、训练和精神支持，他们将无法依赖外部社会强加的默认角色。


They turn to different criteria: Who has the bigger income?	他们会转向不同的标准：谁的收入更多？


Who is more ambitious?	谁更雄心勃勃？


Who has the more flexible job?	谁的工作更灵活？


Who has a boss or company that better supports reconciling work and family obligations?	谁的公司或老板更支持工作和家庭义务的调和？


Attitudes about male caregiving are beginning to shift in the US.	美国开始转变对男性承担照顾责任的态度。


Only a third of millennial men believe in traditional gender roles.	仅有三分之一的千禧世纪男性相信传统的性别角色。


America’s biggest tech companies are beginning to compete for talent by offering paternity leave.	美国最大的科技公司也开始为竞争人才提供侍产假。


Scandinavian countries and Germany have led the way on paternity leave in Europe, yet many European men (and certainly Asian, African, Indian, and Latin American men) have a long way to go with regard to shedding traditional attitudes about the male/female division of labor.	北欧国家和德国已率先在欧洲设立侍产假，但许多欧洲男性（当然还有亚洲、非洲、印度和拉丁美洲的男性）摒弃对男/女劳动分工的传统态度还有很长的路要走。


It is one thing to let women into the workforce; it is quite another to embrace full equality and create a cultural, economic, and social climate that encourages both men and women to support one another and their families equally with cash and care.	允许妇女加入劳动力是一回事； 但实现完全平等、创造鼓励男女互相支持、以出资和出力照顾为家庭平等做出贡献的文化、经济和社会环境则完全是另一回事。


That is what it will take, however, to complete the unfinished business of the movement for women’s equality.	但这是完成妇女平等的未竟事业所必须完成的任务。


The UN report identifies four overarching and interconnected factors that impede gender equality in all forms of work, and at all levels of development: adverse social norms, discriminatory laws and insufficient legal protections, gender gaps in unpaid household and care work, and unequal access to digital, financial, and property assets.	联合国报告发现有四个相互作用的主要因素阻止了各行各业、各个发展水平上的性别平等：不利的社会规范、歧视性法律和法律保���不力、无薪家政和看护工作中的性别差距，以及获得数字、金融和产权资产机会的不平等。


Training for Gender Equality	性别平等培训


MUSCAT – For centuries, women around the world have struggled for even the most basic rights.	马斯喀特——几个世纪以来，世界各地的妇女不得不为争取最基本的权利而斗争。


The fight for equality has been an uphill climb – one that is far from over.	争取平等的斗争是一次艰难的攀登——一次远未结束的攀登。


This is certainly the case in the Middle East, where the challenges women face are typically rooted in social norms, cultural systems, and religious doctrine, and can be enshrined in law.	中东地区的情况确实如此，妇女所面临的挑战往往植根于社会规范、文化体系和宗教教义，并且可以被庄严地载入法律条文。


In some Middle Eastern countries, women may not travel, work, or register to vote without permission from a man in her family.	在一些中东国家，妇女不得在未经男性家庭成员许可的情况下旅行、工作或登记投票。


Even if it is not explicitly prohibited, joining the workforce is often very difficult for women, not least because of widespread resistance among the men who dominate these societies.	即使没有明令禁止，加入劳动力队伍往往对妇女而言非常困难，尤其是因为主导上述社会的男性普遍抵制这么做。


Any woman who has sought to apply for a job knows just how vehement that opposition can be.	任何试图申请工作的女人都知道这种反对是多么强烈。


The result of these norms and structures is that women in the Middle East are often subject to discrimination, isolation, and frustration.	这些规范和体系的结果是，中东妇女往往遭到歧视、孤立和挫折。


They are unable to participate freely in their societies or contribute to their countries’ economic development.	她们不能自由地融入社会，也不能为自己国家的经济发展贡献力量。


But the world is changing fast.	但世界正在发生快速的变化。


At a time of ever-deepening interconnectedness, people are more aware than ever of what is possible, and more motivated than ever to seek reforms – whether educational, economic, or political – that improve their lives.	在不断深化的互联时代，人们比以往任何时候都更加了解各种可能，而且更积极地寻求教育、经济或政治等领域能够提高生活水平的改革。


So which reforms are needed to advance gender equality?	既然如此，需要推动哪些促进两性平等的改革举措？


A central area of focus must be education.	我们首先必须关注教育领域。


First and foremost, schools give girls the knowledge they need to fulfill their potential in the future.	首先，学校为女孩提供她们未来发挥潜力所需的知识。


But it is also vital to instill in both girls and boys an understanding of the need for social and economic equality, to reflect the fundamental equality of opportunity that all deserve.	但同样重要的是，要向女孩和男孩灌输对社会和经济平等必要性的理解，从而体现所有人都应当得到平等的基本机会。


Advancing gender equality also requires changes to policies and regulations.	促进性别平等还需要修改政策和法规。


Beyond ensuring equal rights under the law, countries should work to boost the representation of women in politics and government.	除确保法律规定的平等权利外，各国还应努力提高妇女在政治和政府中的代表地位。


Women need to know that they can reach positions of genuine authority, even in domains from which they have historically been excluded – and they need encouragement to get there.	妇女需要知道她们可以成为真正的权威，甚至是在那些历史上排斥她们的领域——她们需要鼓励才能打开那些封闭的大门。


The same is true for the economy.	经济领域也同样如此。


Women need opportunities and support to develop and run their own businesses, to innovate, and to become financially independent.	妇女需要支持和机遇来发展和经营自己的企业、开展创新活动，并实现经济独立。


This would benefit not only women, but also their families, communities, and the economy as a whole.	这不仅有利于女性，而且有利于她们的家庭、社区和整体经济发展。


Even women who do not own or run businesses would have much to offer, if given the chance to enter the workforce and earn their own living.	即使那些并不拥有或经营企业的妇女，如果有机会加入劳动力大军并赚钱支持自己的生活，也同样有能力回报社会。


To this end, training is crucial.	为了真正实现目标，培训才是关键。


Women need access to guidance, workshops, and longer-term training programs that prepare them to participate in the labor market, while ensuring that they know – and can defend – their rights.	妇女需要获得指导、参与讲习班和长期培训计划，为进入劳动力市场做好准备，同时确保她们知道——并有能力保护——自己的权利。


An important initiative that could provide a useful model for such efforts is the Springboard Women’s Development Programme, developed by the British Council.	能为上述工作提供有效模式的一项重要举措是由英国文化委员会制定的“跳板女性发展计划”。 该计划旨在赋予女性信心和能力，使她们能在职业和个人生活方面改善自己的生存环境；


The program aims to give women the confidence and capabilities they need to make a better life for themselves, both professionally and personally; to expand their role and influence in public life; and to help support open, stable, and inclusive societies across the Middle East and North Africa.	扩大她们在公共生活中的作用和影响； 同时有助于支持整个中东和北非地区建立开放、稳定和包容的社会。


The key to the program’s success is its focus on empowering women to fulfill their potential.	这项计划成功的关键是重视授权妇女发挥自己的潜能。


It helps participants explore and develop their abilities, and then apply them in practical settings, such as acquiring funding to start or expand their own businesses.	它帮助参与者探索和开发自身能力，而后在实际环境中加以应用，例如为启动或拓展自有业务获取资金支持。


It also prepares women to confront – and overcome – the obstacles they will inevitably face as they gain independence and influence.	它还协助妇女面对——和克服——她们在获取独立和影响的过程中不可避免需要面临的障碍。


Delivered by a network of licensed trainers, the Springboard Women’s Development Programme has already been used by over 230,000 women in more than 40 countries.	通过持照培训师网络的直接参与，跳板女性发展计划已经被40多个国家超过 230,000 名妇女所使用。


In just four years, the program has trained more than 700 women in my country, Oman, through the Ministry of Education.	短短四年间，该计划已经通过我所在国阿曼的教育部对700多名妇女进行了培训。


And many more women are clamoring to participate.	还有更多妇女大声要求参与其中。


Achieving gender equality in the Middle East will be a long process, requiring fundamental educational, social, and economic reforms.	在中东地区实现两性平等将是一个漫长的过程，需要进行基本的教育、社会和经济改革。


But giving women the right training now can kick-start the process, enabling half the population finally to reach their potential – to the benefit of all.	但现在给予妇女适当的培训可以启动这一进程，从而实现让半数人口最终发挥自己的潜力 ——这样做最终能够惠及所有人。


Gender Equality and Earth\u0027s Future	性别平等与世界的未来


NEW YORK – Twenty years ago, the adoption by 189 governments of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action marked a turning point in the history of women's rights.	纽约—二十年前，189个政府接受了北京宣言和行动纲领，标志着妇女权利史的一个转折点。


This progressive blueprint remains a powerful source of inspiration in the effort to realize equal opportunities for women and girls.	这一进步蓝图一直是实现妇女和女孩权利平等的一个强有力的动力源。


But while much progress has been made in the intervening decades, much more remains to be done to ensure that women and children are guaranteed healthy lives, education, and full social inclusion.	但尽管二十年来取得了很大的进步，在确保妇女和儿童获得健康生活、教育和完全的社会包容等方面仍有许多事情要做。


In just 42 countries do women hold more than 30% of seats in the national legislature, and girls still do not have the same educational opportunities as boys in Sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, and western Asia.	只有42个国家妇女赢得了30% 以上的国民立法机关席位，而在撒哈拉以南非洲、大洋洲和西部非洲，女孩仍然没有获得与男孩同等的受教育权。


Gender equality is not just the concern of half of the world's population; it is a human right, a concern for us all, because no society can develop – economically, politically, or socially – when half of its population is marginalized.	性别平等并非只是世界一半人口的问题； 它是一项人权，一个与我们所有人相关的问题，因为当一半人口被边缘化时，没有社会能够实现发展——不管是经济上、政治上还是社会上。


This is a year of global action.	今年是全球行动之年。


Governments will adopt a new set of Sustainable Development Goals, work together to draft a meaningful climate agreement, and craft a framework to provide the financial resources needed to deliver on a global sustainable development agenda.	政府将采取新的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals），共同致力于起草有意义的气候协定，并为全球可持续发展议程构建提供资金源的框架。


Those participating would be wise to remember that inclusive sustainable development can be realized only when all human rights – including gender equality – are protected, respected, and fulfilled.	参与者应该铭记，包容性可持续发展只有在全部人权——包括性别平等在内——得到保护、尊重和落实的情况下才可能实现。


The three of us – each from different continents – support these international processes.	来自不同大洲的我们三人支持这些国际日程。


We share a common motivation for our work: protecting our planet for our children and grandchildren, and ensuring the development of a world where all people – regardless of their gender, race, religion, age, disability, or sexual orientation – have an equal opportunity to achieve their aspirations.	我们有共同的工作动力：为了我们的子辈和孙辈保护我们的地球，并确保世界发展称所有人——不论性别、种族、宗教、年龄、是否残疾和性取向——都能获得实现梦想的平等机会。


It is critical that we continue to engage men and boys actively in the fight against gender-based discrimination and violence.	我们继续积极与男性和男孩合作遏制性别歧视和暴力至关重要。


We have an opportunity to secure a better future and raise a new generation of girls and boys who respect one another and work together to protect the rights of all people.	我们有机会确保更好的未来，抚养尊重彼此、共同捍卫全人类权利的新一代男孩和女孩。


The implications of not providing girls with equal voices, choices, and opportunities affect not just their lives, but the future of the planet.	不让女孩获得平等的声音、选择和机会不仅影响到她们的生活，也影响到地球的未来。


Efforts to promote inclusive sustainable development and fight climate change are inextricably linked.	推进包容性可持续发展与遏制气候变化息息相关。


If we care about development, we must care about the consequences our greenhouse-gas emissions are having around the world.	如果我们关心发展，我们就必须关心温室气体排放给全世界造成的后果。


And if we do not take urgent action, we will irreparably damage the natural systems on which life depends.	而如果我们不采取行动，就会给生命所依赖的自然系统造成不可挽回的伤害。


This is not a threat that we can set aside until we have eradicated poverty worldwide.	这不是一个我们可以搁置一旁直到消灭全世界贫困再考虑的威胁。


Nor is it a problem that we can leave to future generations to address.	这也不是一个我们可以留给子孙后代解决的问题。


Left unchecked, climate change – along with other unsustainable patterns of development – could wipe out the gains of recent decades.	如果不加以遏制，气候变化——以及其他不可持续发展模式——可能抹杀近几十年来所取得的成就。


All countries – developed and developing – have a role to play in ensuring a stable world for our children.	所有国家——不论发达国家还是发展中国家——都能在为我们的孩子确保一个稳定的世界中起作用。


Women are among those most vulnerable to the impacts of unsustainable practices and climate change, because they often have no independent income or land rights.	妇女是最容易受到不可持续行为和气候变化的影响的群体之一，因为她们常常没有独立的收入源或土地权。


In many countries, women are responsible for the provision of water and food for their families.	在许多国家，妇女需要负责为家庭提供水和食品。


And when the usual sources of these resources are disrupted, women are forced to travel farther and spend more time working for less return.	而当这些资源的常规来源被破坏时，妇女就不得不走得更远、花更长时间工作以换取更少的回报。


Scarcity requires them to make difficult choices like pulling children out of school or deciding which family member can afford to skip a meal.	稀缺意味着她们需要做出艰难的选择，如让孩子辍学或让某位家庭成员少吃一餐。


In many homes around the world, women are at the heart of the household's nexus of water, food, and energy – and thus often know firsthand about the challenges and potential solutions in these areas.	在全世界的许多家庭中，妇女是家庭水、食品和能源线条上的核心——因此往往能第一手地了解到这方面的挑战和潜在解决方案。


In our conversations with women around the world, we hear about their struggles, but also their ideas, many of which, if applied, could facilitate change.	在我们与全世界妇女的对话中，我们听说了她们的斗争，也听说了她们的想法，其中许多想法如能获得应用可能能够带来不同。


Women are the most convincing advocates for the solutions that they need, so they should be at the forefront of decision-making on sustainable development and climate-change mitigation.	妇女是她们所需要的解决方案的最坚决的支持者，因此她们应该进入可持续发展和遏制气候变化决策的前沿。


Over the coming weeks, during the 59th session of the Commission on the Status of Women in New York, the international community will take stock of the progress that has been made toward achieving what was pledged 20 years ago in Beijing and assess where more efforts are needed.	在未来几周中，纽约将举行第59届妇女地位委员会（ Commission on the Status of Women）会议，在此期间，国际社会将评估20年前北京所做的承诺的进展情况，并研究需要采取什么后续措施。


This year will be crucial.	今年是关键之年。


With the Financing for Development conference in July, the Special Summit on Sustainable Development Goals in September, and the UN Climate Change Conference in December, we have the opportunity to integrate gender equality and women's empowerment fully into the effort to promote sustainable development and fight climate change.	7月将举行发展融资会议，9月将举行可持续发展目标特别峰会，12月将举行联合国气候变化会议，我们有机会在这些场合将性别平等和妇女赋权问题完全纳入促进可持续发展、遏制气候变化的措施中。


The three of us wake up every morning thinking about how to make this happen.	每天早晨，我们三人都在如何促进这方面的进步的思索中醒来。


Everyone should.	每个人都应该如此。


We call on all women and men to join us in making their voices heard loudly and in seizing this opportunity for a just and equitable future for all.	我们希望所有妇女和男性都加入我们，让妇女的声音被响亮地听见，让妇女抓住这个给所有人带来公正公平的未来的机会。


The Working Women Windfall	职业妇女是天赐财富


MUMBAI – Narrowing the global gender gap would have huge potential economic benefits.	孟买—缩小全球性别差距具有绝大的潜在经济好处。


According to the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), if every government helped its citizens catch up to the country in its region that has made the fastest strides toward gender parity, the total annual payoff in additional GDP could reach $12 trillion in 2025.	据麦肯锡全球研究所（MGI）数据，如果各国政府都帮助公民赶上地区内性别平等进步最大的国家，那么2025年GDP增量总年度收益可能达到12万亿美元。


Gender parity is also a moral imperative, recognized in the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which were adopted by 193 countries in 2015.	性别平等也是一项道德要求，获得了2015年193个国家共同实施的联合国可持续发展目标（SDG）的承认。


Together with the aggregate economic payoff, investing in women and girls would transform millions of lives for the better.	除了总量经济收益，投资于妇女和女孩还能让数百万人的生活有所好转。


The question, then, is how to realize these enormous gains.	于是问题来了：如何实现这些巨大的收益。


Achieving economic gender equality is not possible without working toward social gender equality.	如果不致力于社会性别平等，就不可能达到经济性别平等。


The two need to be tackled together.	两者缺一不可。


An important part of the answer, it turns out, lies in improving access to essential services such as education and family planning.	从目前的情况看，答案的重点之一在于改善教育和生育计划等基本服务的普及。


MGI estimates that the additional annual investment required to deliver essential services to those who need them is between $1.5-2 trillion in 2025.	MGI估算，到2025年，向需要基本服务的人提供这些服务所需要的新增年投资量为1. 5—2万亿美元。


This compares with estimated spending of $6.3 trillion on these services in 2014.	而2014年在这些服务上的支出估计为6. 3万亿美元。


In other words, the potential economic payoff in 2025 would be 6-8 times the spending required.	换句话说，2025年潜在经济收益将是所需支出的6—8倍。


In six areas – education, family planning, maternal health, financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and assistance with unpaid care work – improved access to services could unlock women’s economic potential and help to meet the SDGs’ gender-equality targets.	在六大领域——教育、生育计划、孕产妇保健、金融包容性、数字包容性和无薪看护工作支持——改善服务普及能解放妇女的经济潜能，有助于实现SDG的性别平等目标。


Assistance with unpaid care work represents one the biggest opportunities for improvement worldwide, but there is broad scope for improvement in financial and digital inclusion in South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa is greatly in need of advances in maternal health.	无薪看护工作支出是全球范围内最大的改善机会之一，但南亚的金融和数字包容性改善也有巨大空间，而撒哈拉以南非洲急需孕产妇保健方面的进步。


In order to meet the path set by the SDGs, 58 million more girls and 60 million more boys will need to be enrolled in schools.	为了实现SDG所制定的路径，需要让5,800万女孩和6,000万男孩入学读书。


Some 224 million more women will need to gain access to formal financial services to close the gender gap completely.	大约2. 24亿多妇女需要能够获得正式金融服务才能完全填补性别差距。


And roughly 445 million people will need improved access to safe water supplies – part of reducing the unpaid care work carried out by women in developing countries.	大约4. 45亿人需要更可靠的安全水供给——这也是减少发展中国家妇女无薪看护工作的一部分。


This ambitious agenda will not be delivered effectively without action from governments working in concert with the private sector and nongovernmental organizations.	这一雄心勃勃的日程必须通过政府和私人部门以及非政府组织的共同努力才能有效实现。


It will require additional investment, the creation of job opportunities for women, and the introduction of measures to help women move into more productive work.	它需要加强投资，为妇女创造就业机会，并引入帮助妇女从事生产性工作的手段。


MGI identified several interventions around the world that could easily be deployed more broadly.	MGI列举了全球范围内的一些能轻易推广的干预措施。


Measures proven to improve access to education include building more secondary schools, ensuring that girls are provided with sanitation facilities in the places where they study, and creating financial incentives – including cash transfers – to raise enrollment and keep girls in school.	已证实能改善教育普及的措施包括建设更多中学、确保女孩在学习场所有卫生设施可用、采取金融激励——包括现金转移支付——提高入学率和避免女孩辍学等。


When it comes to family planning and maternal health, the main priorities are to expand the number of health workers and develop emergency services and maternal-health services in rural areas.	在生育计划和孕产妇保健方面，主要的重点是扩大卫生工作者数量和发展农村地区急诊服务和孕产妇保健服务。


Improving supply chains for the delivery of contraceptives and expanding sex education in schools are also important measures.	改善避孕用品供应链、扩大学校性教育也是重要手段。


One of the most effective ways to reduce the amount of time women spend on unpaid care work is expanding the provision of childcare, whether government-subsidized, employer-assisted, or self-funded.	减少妇女花在无薪看护工作上的时间的最有效的方法之一是扩大育儿服务供给，形式可以是政府补贴、雇主支持和自筹。


Digital technologies can help more women gain access to financial services, but only if countries expand their infrastructure and help enhance women’s digital and financial literacy.	数字技术可以有助于让更多妇女获得金融服务，但只有在各国扩大基础设施、帮助强化妇女数字和金融知识的情况下才能见效。


These measures will, of course, have to be funded; but MGI has found that 60% of countries can generate the additional funds from taxes on the incremental GDP growth that empowering women will deliver.	当然，这些措施必须有资金支持； 但MGI发现，60%的国家可以从妇女赋权所带来的增量GDP增长所产生的税收中筹集增加的资金。


In places where such tax revenues may not be sufficient, private investment can be attracted.	在这类收入可能不足的地区，可以吸引私人投资。


Legislation enacted this year by New York State, for example, requires that employers and employees each contribute funds to finance paid family leave.	比如，纽约州立法要求雇主和雇员都出资支持带薪产假。


But policy changes will be insufficient if attitudes prevent people from making use of new rights and services.	但如果观念阻止人们使用新权利和服务，政策变化是不够的。


Even in Sweden, where gender equality has advanced very far, studies suggest that roughly 33% of men take parental leave, compared to more than 75% of women.	即使在性别平等取得了长足进步的瑞典，研究也表明大约只有33%的男性休产假，而女性比例为75%以上。


To be sure, participation in paid work or domestic work is ultimately a matter of personal choice, but social attitudes may need to be addressed if they hinder true freedom to decide.	诚然，参与带薪工作还是全职在家最终是一个个人选择，但如果社会观念阻止了决定自由，就需要改变它。


There are grounds for optimism.	有理由保持乐观。


Many developing countries, including India, are now at a tipping point, with sharply narrowing gender gaps in education implying huge potential gains in women’s economic prospects.	包括印度在内的许多发展中国家现在正处于一个转折点，教育性别差距的迅速缩小意味着妇女经济前景可能获得巨大改善。


In the United States, New York is not alone in adopting policies enabling paid family leave.	在美国，纽约州不是唯一一个实施带薪产假促进政策的州。


And the rapid spread of digital technologies is improving access to finance and work opportunities in completely new ways.	而数字技术的迅速扩张正在以全新的方式改善金融和工作机会的普及。


Finally, awareness of the immense economic benefits of tackling gender inequality is increasing.	最后，消除性别不平等的巨大经济好处正在日益被人认识。


We have a $12-trillion incentive to accelerate progress.	我们有一个12万亿美元的巨大激励加快进步。


The Perils of Planned Extinctions	计划灭绝的危险


HONOLULU – A cynical move is underway to promote a new, powerful, and troubling technology known as “gene drives” for use in conservation.	檀香山—有一项正在进行中的犬儒主义运动，宣扬在物种保护中使用一种叫做“基因驱动器”的强大但问题重重的新技术。


This is not just your everyday genetic modification, known as “GMO”; it is a radical new technology, which creates “mutagenic chain reactions” that can reshape living systems in unimaginable ways.	这项技术绝不仅仅是日常所见的“转基因”； 而是一项全新技术，它制造“诱变锁链反应”，能以无法想象的方式改变生命系统。


Gene drives represent the next frontier of genetic engineering, synthetic biology, and gene editing.	基因驱动器代表了下一代基因工程、合成生物学和基因编辑前沿。


The technology overrides the standard rules of genetic inheritance, ensuring that a particular trait, delivered by humans into an organism’s DNA using advanced gene-editing technology, spreads to all subsequent generations, thereby altering the future of the entire species.	该技术跨越了遗传标准规则，确保某种由人类使用先进的基因编辑技术向生物体DNA中注入的特殊特征传递给所有后续各代，从而改变整个物种的未来。


It is a biological tool with unprecedented power.	这是一项具备前所未有的力量的生物工具。


Yet, instead of taking time to consider fully the relevant ethical, ecological, and social issues, many are aggressively promoting gene-drive technology for use in conservation.	然而，在没有充分考虑相关伦理、生态和社会问题的情况下，许多人积极地推动在物种保护中使用基因驱动技术。


One proposal aims to protect native birds on Hawaii’s Kauai Island by using gene drives to reduce the population of a species of mosquito that carries avian malaria.	一项方案准备使用基因驱动器减少某种携带禽疟疾的蚊子的数量，以此保护夏威夷考艾岛的本土鸟类。


Another plan, championed by a conservation consortium that includes US and Australian government agencies, would eradicate invasive, bird-harming mice on particular islands by introducing altered mice that prevent them from producing female offspring.	另一项由包括美国和澳大利亚政府机构在内的保护联盟提出的计划准备引入变异老鼠，使它们无法生育雌性后代，以此消灭某些岛屿上威胁鸟类生存的入侵鼠类。


Creating the “daughterless mouse” would be the first step toward so-called Genetic Biocontrol of Invasive Rodents (GBIRd), designed to cause deliberate extinctions of “pest” species like rats, in order to save “favored” species, such as endangered birds.	制造“生不出女儿的老鼠”将是所谓的“入侵啮齿类基因生物控制”（GBIRd）的第一步。 GBIRd通过有意灭绝老鼠等“有害”物种来保护濒危鸟类等“特权”物种。


The assumption underlying these proposals seems to be that humans have the knowledge, capabilities, and prudence to control nature.	这些方案背后的假设是人类具备控制自然的知识、能力和审慎。


The idea that we can – and should – use human-driven extinction to address human-caused extinction is appalling.	我们能够——也应该——使用人为驱动的灭绝来解决人类引起的灭绝，这一观念简直骇人听闻。


I am not alone in my concern.	我绝不是唯一一个感到担忧的。


At the ongoing International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) World Conservation Congress in Hawaii, a group of leading conservationists and scientists issued an open letter, entitled “A Call for Conservation with a Conscience,” demanding a halt to the use of gene drives in conservation.	在正在夏威夷举行的国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）世界保护会议上，一群著名自然保护主义者和科学家发表了一篇题为《保护需要良知》（A Call for Conservation with a Conscience）的公开信，要求停止在保护中运用基因驱动器技术。


I am one of the signatories, along with the environmental icon David Suzuki, physicist Fritjof Capra, the Indigenous Environmental Network’s Tom Goldtooth, and organic pioneer Nell Newman.	我是署名者之一，其他人还包括环境保护标志性人物大卫·铃木（David Suzuki）、物理学家福利特乔夫·卡普拉（Fritjof Capra）、原住民环境保护网络（Indigenous Environmental Network）的汤姆·戈德图斯（Tom Goldtooth）以及有机生活先驱尼尔·纽曼（Nell Newman）。


The discussions that have begun at the IUCN congress will continue at the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Mexico this December, when global leaders must consider a proposed global moratorium on gene drives.	这场始于IUNC会议的讨论将在今年12月的墨西哥联合国生物多样性会议上继续进行，届时全球领导人必须考虑在全球范围内暂停基因驱动器技术。


Such discussions reflect demands by civil-society leaders for a more thorough consideration of the scientific, moral, and legal issues concerning the use of gene drives.	这些讨论体现了公民社会领袖的要求——全面考量与使用基因驱动技术有关的科学、道德和法律问题。


As I see it, we are simply not asking the right questions.	就我所见而论，我们根本没有提出正确的问题。


Our technological prowess is largely viewed through the lens of engineering, and engineers tend to focus on one question: “Does it work?”	我们在技术上的卓越性大多是从工程角度来看，而工程往往只关注一个问题：“它管用吗？


But, as Angelika Hilbeck, President of the European Network of Scientists for Social and Environmental Responsibility (ENSSER) argues, a better question would be: “What else does it do?”	”但是，如欧洲社会和环境责任科学家网络（European Network of Scientists for Social and Environmental Responsibility，ENSSER）主席安吉里卡·希尔贝克（Angelika Hilbeck）所言，更好的问题是：“它还能做什么？ ”


When it comes to the GBIRd project, for example, one might ask whether the “daughterless mouse” could escape the specific ecosystem into which it has been introduced, just as GMO crops and farmed salmon do, and what would happen if it did.	比如，在GBIRd工程上，我们可以问问“生不出女儿的老鼠”是否会从引入它们的生态系统中逃逸——转基因庄稼和养殖三文鱼就发生过这种情况——以及如果逃逸会发生什么。


As for the mosquitos in Hawaii, one might ask how reducing their numbers would affect the endangered hoary bat species.	在夏威夷蚊子的问题上，我们可以问问减少它们的数量是否会影响到濒危的灰蓬毛蝠。


Ensuring that these kinds of questions are taken into account will be no easy feat.	确保这些问题得到考虑绝非易事。


As a lawyer experienced in US government regulations, I can confidently say that the existing regulatory framework is utterly incapable of assessing and governing gene-drive technology.	作为具有美国政府监管经验的律师，我可以信心满满地说，现有监管框架在评估和管理基因驱动技术方面非常无能。


Making matters worse, the media have consistently failed to educate the public about the risks raised by genetic technologies.	更糟糕的是，媒体一直没有让公众了解基因技术所带来的风险。


Few people understand that, as MIT science historian Lily Kay explains, genetic engineering was deliberately developed and promoted as a tool for biological and social control.	很少有人明白，如麻省理工学院科学史家莉莉·凯（Lily Kay）所解释的，基因工程被有意开发和推广为一种生物和社会控制工具。


Those driving that process were aiming to fulfill a perceived mandate for “science-based social intervention.”	推动这一过程的人的目标是实现他们所感到的“基于科学的社会干预”使命。


Powerful tools like genetic modification and, especially, gene-drive technology spark the imagination of anyone with an agenda, from the military (which could use them to make game-changing bio-weapons) to well-intentioned health advocates (which could use them to help eradicate certain deadly diseases).	像转基因以及（尤其是）基因驱动技术这样的强大工具通过日程表激发所有人的想象力，不管是军方（可以用它们来制造能够改变战局的生物武器）还是怀有良好初衷的健康倡议者（可以用它们来根除某些致命疾病）。


They certainly appeal to the hero narrative that so many of my fellow environmentalists favor.	他们当然会诉诸许多我的环保主义同道们所钟爱的英雄故事。


But the fact is that we have not created the intellectual infrastructure to address the fundamental challenges that gene drives – not to mention other powerful technologies – raise.	但事实是我们尚未构建出解决基因驱动技术——更不用说其他强大的技术了——所引起的基本挑战所需要的知识框架。


And now we are supposed to suspend our critical faculties and trust the techno-elites’ promise to use gene drives responsibly in the service of seemingly positive environmental goals.	而如今，我们准备自宫批判力，相信技术精英为了追求看似积极的环境目标而负责任地使用基因驱动技术的承诺。


No open public discussion is needed, apparently.	显然，没必要进行公开的公共讨论。


But why should we blindly believe that everything is under control?	但我们为什么要盲目相信一切尽在掌握？


In my view, the focus on using gene-drive technology for conservation is a ruse to gain public acceptance and regulatory cover.	在我看来，将焦点集中在用基因驱动技术保护物种只不过是骗取公共接受和监管覆盖的伎俩。


Why expose something to public scrutiny and possible restraints when you can usher it in through the back door by pretending it will do some good?	当你能够把它包装为好东西，从而走后门引入时，为什么还要把它暴露在公共监督下，接受可能的约束？


The risks are too obvious for gene-drive advocates to risk talking about them.	对基因驱动技术鼓吹者来说，谈论它们的风险再明显不过了。


In my 20-plus years of researching and reporting on transgenic technologies, I thought I had seen the worst of the false promises and hype that they engender.	在我20多年的研究和报道转基因技术的生涯中，我想我目睹过最恶劣的虚假承诺及随后的大肆炒作。


But gene drives are unlike anything we have witnessed, and amount to the ultimate test of our self-control.	但基因驱动器和我们曾经看到过的一切都不一样，它可以说是我们的自我控制的终极考验。


Can we really trust science to guide us, or do we recklessly throw in our lot with technological “silver bullets” as the way forward?	我们真的可以信任科学来指导我们吗？ 我们不顾一切地要与技术“妙招”休戚与共，把它作为前进方向吗？


Fortunately, we still have a choice.	幸运的是，我们仍然有得选。


The fact that gene drives can change the basic relationship between humanity and the natural world is both a challenge and an opportunity.	基因驱动器能改变人类与自然界的基本关系，这一事实既是挑战也是机会。


We can do now what we should have done a long time ago, with regard to both nuclear and transgenic technologies: start paying more attention to the dangers of human ingenuity – and more respect to the genius of nature.	我们可以从现在开始做很久以前就应该做的事，它们与核和转基因技术有关：花更多的精力关注人类创造力的危险——以及更加尊重大自然的智慧。


Belly-Up Brazil?	巴西告急？


SAO PAULO – After years of impressive growth, Brazil’s economic prospects appear increasingly dim.	圣保罗—在尽力了多年令人瞩目的增长后，巴西经济前景日益暗淡下来。


Since the World Cup ended in July, economic activity has plummeted, inflationary pressures have intensified, and consumer and business confidence have collapsed, leading many economists to slash their growth forecasts for this year.	自7月份世界杯结束以来，经济活动大幅下降，通胀压力增加，消费和商业信心崩溃，这导致许多经济学家大幅调低了今年的增长预测。


So just how sick is Brazil’s economy, and how will its malaise affect the outcome of the presidential election in October?	那么，巴西经济局面有多糟糕，如此糟糕的局面又会对10月的总统选举结果造成多大影响？


At first glance, Brazil’s weak growth appears ephemeral, and President Dilma Rousseff should be well positioned to win a second term.	乍一看，巴西的增长疲软只是暂时的，总统罗塞夫很有机会赢得第二个任期。


Over the last 12 years, her Worker’s Party (PT) has delivered the country’s strongest per capita GDP growth in more than three decades; reduced income inequality with an extensive system of social transfers that reaches one-third of Brazilian households; and reduced formal unemployment to a record-low 4.5%.	在过去12个月中，她的工党（Worker’s Party）交出了巴西三十多年来最强劲的人均GDP增长； 触及三分之一巴西家庭的广大的社会转移支付体系让收入不平等性有所下降；


But even a cursory look at recent economic data reveals that Brazil’s growth model may well be hitting a stagflationary wall.	但你只要略窥最新经济数据就能发现，巴西增长模式很有可能已经撞上了滞涨的南墙。


In fact, Brazil most likely experienced a technical recession during the first half of this year.	事实上，巴西极有可能在今年上半年经历了技术性衰退。


And annual growth during Rousseff’s presidency has probably averaged less than 2% – the slowest for any Brazilian president since the 1980s, when the country began its transition from hyperinflationary basket case and serial defaulter to stable and increasingly prosperous middle-income economy.	罗塞夫总统任期期间的平均年增长率可能还不到2%——是20世纪80年代巴西开始从超级通胀和连续违约的国家向稳定而日益繁荣的中产阶级经济转变以来诸位总统的最差成绩。


Moreover, had the government not cut taxes and delayed much-needed increases in gasoline and electricity prices, average annual inflation would stand at 7.5% – a level not reached in decades.	此外，如果政府没有减税并推迟急需的汽油和电力价格提升，平均年通胀率将达到7. 5%——这也是几十年来的最高值。


In services, where the government has taken no measures to suppress inflation, the rate exceeds 9%.	在政府未采取措施遏制通胀的服务业，价格上涨幅度超过9%。


Dig deeper, and one finds that the economy’s foundations are plagued with fragilities and imbalances.	更深的挖掘可以发现，巴西经济的基础因为各种弱点和失衡而孱弱不堪。


Though overall economic activity is weak, the current-account deficit has reached a 12-year high of 3.5% of GDP.	尽管总体经济活动十分疲软，但经常项目赤字仍达到了GDP的3. 5%，为12年以来最高值。


Industrial production is 7% below its pre-crisis peak in 2008.	工业产值比2008年危机前峰值低了7%。


This, together with the decline in manufactured goods as a share of total exports, from 54% a decade ago to 37% today, points to a substantial loss of competitiveness.	再加上制造商品占总出口的比重从十年前的54%下降至今天的37%，这一切都表明巴西竞争力出现了巨大的下降。


Even the economy’s apparent strengths – a thriving service sector and low unemployment – rest on unsustainable credit policies.	即使是巴西经济明显的优势——繁荣的服务业和低失业——也是建立在不可持续的信用政策上。


Of course, rapid credit growth is a natural consequence of declining real interest rates.	当然，快速的信用增长是真实利率下降的自然反应。


But, in Brazil, lending by state-owned banks has outpaced that of private banks significantly since 2008, meaning that lending at deeply subsidized rates has largely driven the increase in bank credit, to 58% of GDP (roughly double the rate eight years ago).	但是，在巴西，2008年以来国有银行贷款扩张速度远快于私人银行，这意味着主要是深度补贴利率贷款推动银行信用扩张至GDP的58%（大约为八年前这一比例的两倍）。


Against this background, Brazil is preparing for its most important presidential election since its transition from dictatorship to democracy in 1985 – and the polls do not bode well for Rousseff.	在这样的背景下，巴西正准备迎来其自1985年从独裁向民主转型以来最重要的总统选举——民调结果对罗塞夫并不十分有利。


Despite higher incomes and lower inequality, 70% of Brazilians have expressed a desire for change.	尽管收入有所提高，不平等性有所降低，但70% 的巴西人表示希望看到变化。


This is not surprising, in view of the street protests that erupted last year over the poor quality of public services and rising prices.	这并不令人奇怪，去年爆发的针对低劣的公共服务质量和高涨的价格的街头游行已经说明了一切。


But is Rousseff’s government entirely to blame?	但这应该全部归咎于罗塞夫政府吗？


The short answer is no.	简言之，答案是否定的。


While Rousseff’s government is largely responsible for the recent bout of cyclical weakness and social upheaval, Brazil’s problems are rooted in a broader unwillingness to shake off the yoke of policies adopted during more than two decades of military rule.	尽管罗塞夫政府要为最近的周期性经济疲软和社会动荡负主要责任，但巴西的问题根源在于巴西人普遍不愿打破二十多年的军政府统治期间所采取的政策枷锁。


The 1994 Plano Real, a macroeconomic stabilization program, together with subsequent structural reforms, enabled Brazil finally to quash inflation and ride a wave of cheap global liquidity and surging Chinese demand for commodities.	1994年的宏观经济稳定计划——雷亚尔计划（Plano Real）与随后的结构性改革让巴西最终得以遏制通胀并借上了廉价全球流动性和中国商品需求暴增的东风。


As the government attempted to direct these gains toward wealth redistribution, public expenditure rose and the social-benefits system – underpinned by so-called “acquired rights” – became increasingly rigid.	政府试图将由此获得的好处导向财富再分配，因此，公共支出节节攀升，以所谓的“争得权利”（acquired rights）为基础的社会福利制度也变得日益僵化。


Brazil needs a new growth model, based on four key elements: tighter fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, a reduced role for state-owned banks in credit provision, and measures to lower Brazil’s astronomical private lending costs.	巴西需要新的增长模式，该模式有四大基础要素：更紧的财政政策、更松的货币政策、降低国有银行在信用供给中的作用，以及降低巴西畸高的私人贷款成本的措施。


The next government, whether of the left or the right, will also face the unenviable task of reforming the acquired-rights system to make social benefits more flexible and affordable.	下一任政府不论是左翼还是右翼当选，还将面临另一个不可避免的任务——改革争得权利制度以使社会福利更灵活、更平价。


Its approach will determine whether Brazil goes the way of Venezuela, which is currently mired in stagflation, or Chile, widely regarded as Latin America’s best-run economy.	新政府的方针将决定巴西是走委内瑞拉之路（如今在滞涨中泥足深陷）还是走智利之路（被广泛视为拉丁美洲最佳经济体）。


Given the protections afforded to acquired rights, the process of rooting out economic distortions and restoring Brazil’s finances to a stable equilibrium will require a lengthy process of constitutional reform.	出于争得权利所提供的保护，根除经济扭曲、让巴西金融重回稳定均衡需要漫长的宪法改革过程。


And, though the transition will undoubtedly be painful, it is essential to Brazil’s future economic growth and development.	而尽管转型毫无疑问会带来痛苦，却是巴西未来经济增长和发展所不可或缺的。


Whether or not the next government can do what is needed will depend on its ability to unify the electorate and a disparate group of regionally focused political parties.	新政府是否做得到需要做的事将取决于其团结选民和以地区为核心各自为政的政治党派的能力。


But, first, it must reject the temptingly easy – but ultimately damaging – route of raising taxes and doubling down on redistributive policies.	但是，首先，新政府必须拒绝看似诱人、实则为害甚深的简单办法——增税和加倍实施再分配政策。


That path leads to Venezuela – and to a far less stable and prosperous Latin America.	这样做只能让巴西重蹈委内瑞拉的覆辙，拉丁美洲也将走向动荡和萧条。


China’s Bad Dream	中国噩梦


LONDON – Since his first address as China’s president last year, Xi Jinping has been espousing the so-called “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation and individual self-improvement.	伦敦—自习近平于去年开始第一任中国国家主席任期以来，他一直在推行所谓的“中国梦”，即国家复兴和个人的自我改善。


But the imperative of addressing the unprecedented amount of debt that China has accumulated in recent years is testing Xi’s resolve – and his government is blinking.	但中国面临一个艰巨的挑战——处理近几年来所积累的前所未有的债务负担，这将考验习近平的决心，而他的政府对此视而不见。


The Chinese government’s uncertain ability – or willingness – to rein in debt is apparent in its contradictory commitment to implement major structural reforms while maintaining 7.5% annual GDP growth.	中国政府处理债务的能力——或者意愿——存在不确定性，这突出地表现在它的矛盾承诺中——一方面要实施重大结构改革，一方面又要保持7.


Given that China owes much of its recent growth to debt-financed investment – often in projects like infrastructure and housing, meant to support the Chinese Dream – any effort to get credit growth under control is likely to cause a hard landing.	5%的GDP年增长率。 最近，中国的增长很大程度上依靠债务融资的投资——通常是基础设施和住房等项目，旨在支持中国梦——因此任何控制信用增长的努力都有可能导致硬着陆。


This prospect is already prompting the authorities to delay critical reforms.	这种可能性已经导致当局推迟关键改革。


To be sure, China’s debt/GDP ratio, reaching 250% this month, remains significantly lower than that of most developed economies.	平心而论，中国的债务/GDP比率（本月达到了250%）仍显著低于大部分发达经济体。


The problem is that China’s stock of private credit would normally be associated with a per capita GDP of around $25,000 – almost four times the country’s current level.	问题在于中国私人信用存量将因此对应25,000美元左右的人均GDP，几乎达到了现有水平的四倍。


There are strong parallels between China’s current predicament and the investment boom that Japan experienced in the 1980s.	中国当前的困境与20世纪80年代的日本投资繁荣十分相似。


Like China today, Japan had a high personal savings rate, which enabled investors to rely heavily on traditional, domestically financed bank loans.	与今天的中国一样，日本拥有极高的个人储蓄率，使投资者可以严重依赖传统的国内融资银行贷款。


Moreover, deep financial linkages among sectors amplified the potential fallout of financial risk.	此外，部门之间的深刻金融联系放大了金融风险的潜在后果。


And Japan’s external position was strong, just as China’s is now.	而日本的外部头寸与目前的中国一样坚挺。


Another similarity is the accumulation of debt within the corporate sector.	另一个相似之处是债务在公司部门内部积累。


Corporate leverage in China rose from 2.4 times equity in 2007 to 3.5 times last year – well above American and European levels.	2007年，中国公司杠杆为股本的2. 4倍，去年为3.


Nearly half of this debt matures within one year, even though much of it is being used to finance multi-year infrastructure projects.	5倍，比美国和欧洲水平高得多。 这些债务中近一半将在一年内到期，尽管其中有许多被用来为多年期基础设施工程融资。


Making matters worse, much of the new credit has originated in the shadow-banking sector at high interest rates, causing borrowers’ repayment capacity to become overstretched.	更糟糕的是，这些新信用中有许多源自影子银行部门，利率很高，导致借款人偿债能力紧绷。


One in five listed corporations carries gross leverage of more than eight times equity and earns less than two times interest coverage, weakening considerably these companies’ resilience to growth shocks.	五分之一的上市公司，杠杆率高于股本的八倍，而利润不到利息的两倍，这意味着它们很难抵御增长冲击。


To be sure, China’s situation is more extreme than Japan’s.	坦白说，中国的状况比日本更加极端。


At its peak, Japanese investment stood at 33% of GDP, compared to 47% in China.	在顶峰时期，日本投资占GDP的33%，而中国为47%。


This is a substantial difference, especially considering that China’s per capita GDP amounts to only 19% of Japan’s at its highest level, and that its debt has already reached 60% of Japan’s.	这是一个重大差别，特别是考虑到中国人均GDP只有日本最高峰水平的19%，而其债务已经达到日本的60%。


Moreover, the accumulation of debt in China – 71 percentage points of GDP over the last five years – has been far sharper than in Japan, where the debt level grew by only 16 percentage points over the five-year period before its bust.	此外，中国的债务积累速度——过去五年达到了GDP的71个百分点——远远快于日本，后者在泡沫破裂前的五年中仅增加了相当于GDP的16个百分点的债务。


That is all the more reason to believe that Japan’s experience can provide important insight into the risks that China faces.	正因如此，我认为日本的经验能够为中国所面临的风险提供重要洞见。


After Japan’s bubble burst, annual GDP growth, which averaged 5.8% in the four years preceding the bust, plummeted to 0.9% for the next four years.	日本泡沫破裂后，年GDP增长率（在泡沫破裂前四年平均为5. 8%）在随后四年暴跌至0.


With bad debt left to fester on banks’ balance sheets, growth vanished and deflation set in.	9%。 坏账开始侵蚀银行资产负债表，随之而来的增长萎靡和通货紧缩。


While private debt as a share of GDP stabilized, public debt increased by 50% in the five years after the bust.	尽管私人债务占GDP之比保持稳定，但在泡沫破裂后的五年中，公共债务增加了50%。


The collapse of China’s credit bubble would likely cause annual GDP growth to drop to 1-2%, on average, for the subsequent four years, assuming a 2% annual decline in capital expenditure and a still-respectable consumption-growth rate of 3-5%.	中国信用泡沫的破裂可能导致随后四年平均GDP年增长率下���至1—2%的水平（假设每年资本支出下降2%，而消费增长率仍能保持在不错的3—5%）。


Consolidated public-sector debt would rise to 100% of GDP.	整合后的公共部门债务将上升至GDP的100%。


This is a relatively modest prediction.	这是相对温和的预测。


Without automatic stabilizers or a strong financial-stability framework underpinned by deposit insurance, coping with the downside risks of the potentially destabilizing financial reforms that the government is pursuing will be difficult enough; a credit shock could prove disastrous.	若无自动稳定器或以存款保险为基础的强大的金融稳定框架，那么应对政府所追求的的具有潜在破坏性的金融改革的下行风险将十分困难； 信用冲击可能造成灾难性后果。


China’s debt tipping point is to be found in its massive real-estate bubble.	中国的债务引爆点可以在其巨大的房地产泡沫中寻找。


According to the investment bank UBS, new urban housing supply has far exceeded marginal underlying demand from urban population growth.	根据投资银行瑞银集团的数据，新增城镇住房供给远远超过了城镇人口增长带来的边际基本需求。


Indeed, almost half of the formal increase is not an increase at all, but merely recognition of rural workers who have been living and working in cities for some time.	事实上，近一半的正式人口增长（formal increase）根本不是增长，只不过是承认了早已在城市中生活和工作的农民工的地位。


The impact of a sharp decline in real-estate prices would be far-reaching.	房地产价格暴跌的冲击将十分深远。


After all, property collateral is the bedrock of the Chinese financial system, with estimates of banks’ direct and indirect exposure to real estate ranging from 66% to 89% of GDP.	毕竟，物业抵押乃是中国金融系统的基石，据估计，银行在房地产上的直接和间接风险敞口大约占GDP的66%至89%。


Complicating matters further is the government’s lack of options for stabilizing property markets.	让事情更加复杂的是政府缺少稳定房地产市场的选择方案。


In fact, a key part of the problem is that China’s response to cyclical weakness always entails more housing construction.	事实上，问题的关键在于中国应对周期性疲软的办法永远是增加住房建设。


China’s lack of automatic stabilizers places the tension between reform objectives and growth imperatives in sharp relief.	中国缺少自动稳定器，这导致改革目标与增长任务之间的鲜明对立。


The only way for the government to shore up growth in the short run is to pursue more debt-driven stimulus, as it did earlier this year.	对政府来说，短期提振增长的唯一办法是实施更多的债务驱动型刺激，如同今年早些时候做的那样。


But this will also cause China’s debt burden to continue to grow, with bad debt increasingly crowding out good credit.	但这也会导致中国债务负担继续增长，不良债务会日益挤出优质信用。


If China’s leaders continue to choose debt-fueled growth over reform, they will only delay, and possibly prolong, the inevitable slowdown.	如果中国领导人继续选择债务驱动型增长优先、压倒改革，也只能推迟——可能时间很长——不可避免的减速。


That would turn Xi’s Chinese Dream into a more elusive prospect.	这将让习近平的中国梦变得可望而不可及。


Gene Pool Rules	基因池规则


CLEVELAND – For thousands of years, humans have used genetic engineering to control the evolution of plants and animals.	克利夫兰—几千年来，人类一直在用基因工程控制动植物的进化。 因此，我们免不了也会用基因工程改造我们自身的进化。


So it is inevitable that we will use it to shape our own evolution.	到目前为止，我们在这方面的努力只是略有进展：在线约会服务开始以基因相容性匹配用户； 越来越多的父母用通过影像观察胚胎和胎儿，让最健康的基因来到世界；


Our efforts so far have been modest: online dating services are beginning to match subscribers on the basis of their genetic compatibility; parents increasingly screen embryos and fetuses, allowing only those with the healthiest genes to be born; geneticists are only slowly improving their ability to manipulate DNA directly; and no one is trying to make germline changes in humans that will be passed on to succeeding generations.	遗传学家在慢慢改进他们直接操纵DNA的能力； 至于改变人类种系并繁衍后代，这种事目前还没有人尝试。


Full-scale human evolutionary engineering is still far off, but, at some point in the future, it may well become routine.	全面人种进化工程还远没有起飞，但是，在未来，它迟早会变成常事。


The challenge for humanity is twofold: to survive long enough to reach that point, and to cause the least amount of harm while getting there.	人类面临双重挑战：一是要生存到那一天，而是要把它的危害降到最低。


Those most immediately at risk are children, who are in danger of having their genetic material manipulated in damaging ways.	最先面对风险的是儿童，他们面临着遗传物质受有害操纵的危险。


The harm can be physical (stillbirths, deformities, and genetic disorders); but, even genetic engineering that is technically successful can cause psychosocial harm to children, who may be shunned by peers for being odd-looking or merely “different.”	危害可能是生理的（死胎、畸形和遗传缺陷），但即使是技术成功的基因工程也可能给儿童带来心理危害，他们可能会遭遇玩伴异样的目光，被视为“异类”。


On a societal level, genetic engineering that only the wealthy can afford would threaten social cohesion by ruling out equality of opportunity.	在社会层面，只有富豪才负担得起的基因工程会挤出机会质量，从而威胁社会团结。


Genetic haves and have-nots could form separate castes, with reproductive isolation possibly producing physical changes that would make inter-caste procreation impossible.	基因有产者和无产者可能形成独立的等级，生殖隔离可能造成生理变化，导致跨等级生育变得不可能。


Ultimately, this could lead to the emergence of distinct human species.	最终，人类物种将出现分化。


Given that no human species other than our own survives (Homo floresiensis disappeared about 18,000 years ago), the prospects for harmonious coexistence among future human species are not reassuring.	由于除了我们自身之外，再无别的人种可以存活（弗洛里斯人大约在18 000年前灭绝），未来人种间未必能够和谐共存。


In the worst case, the human genetic lineage itself could be wiped out by inter-species conflict.	最糟糕的情景是人类基因联系本身被跨物种冲突切断。


Even without speciation, the same outcome could occur through a loss of genetic diversity: If everyone selected the same traits for their offspring, their descendants would be incapable of surviving a sudden, unexpected environmental challenge.	即使没有物种分化，基因多样性的丢失也可能造成同样结果：如果所有人都为后代选择同样的特征，那么他们的后代将无法从突发的意外环境挑战中存活下来。


Geneticists often express skepticism about such predictions.	遗传学家经常对这些预言表示悲观。


For example, a reviewer of my recent book, writing in Science, pointed out how little impact “a few genetically engineered individuals” will have on the human gene pool.	比如，《科学》杂志评论我的新著时指出，“新的基因工程人”对人类基因池几无影响。


But, while it is true that a genetic-engineering catastrophe will not overtake the entire human species anytime soon, existing genetic-engineering technologies already can harm individual children: witness the increase in premature births and low birth weights associated with in vitro fertilization.	但是，尽管基因工程灾难确实不可能在近期吞噬全人类，但现有基因工程技术已可能对个别儿童产生伤害：比如相伴试管婴儿而生的早产和出生重量不足。


And reproductive decisions that reflect a cultural preference for boys are beginning to produce social problems in countries like China and India.	重男轻女的生殖文化正在中国和印度等国家形成社会问题。


Simply put, in the absence of unknown and unforeseeable technical impediments, human evolutionary engineering is likely to become sufficiently widespread in the future to pose species-wide threats.	简言之，在不存在未知和不可预见技术障碍的情况下，未来人类进化工程可能造成足以危害人种的威胁。


So, while it may not be necessary to employ measures now to prevent harm in the future, it makes sense to identify which measures might be needed, together with the changes in social norms and behaviors that might be required to implement them.	因此，或许现在尚无必要采取措施防止未来伤害，但指出可能需要哪些措施以及那些实施措施所必须的社会规范和行为的变化是大有裨益的


Many of the risks from evolutionary engineering are triggered by bad parental decision-making.	进化工程的许多风险是由父母决策触发的。


Eager to give their children social advantages, parents may make reproductive decisions based on faulty or incomplete genetic information, or seek genetic alteration of their offspring before adequate safety testing has been carried out.	父母亲急切地希望孩子能获得社会优势，以至于可能凭借错误或不完全遗传信息做出生殖决定，或是在尚未做足安全测试的情况下后代的基因突变。


Determining when it is permissible to interfere with parental choices is challenging, given the deference that parents typically receive.	决定何时允许干涉父母选择是一个具有挑战性的问题，因为父母意见往往会得到尊重。


Most countries have laws aimed at protecting children from abuse and neglect.	大部分国家已有旨在保护儿童不受虐待和忽视的法律。


But legislation to safeguard children’s welfare does not adequately address harms produced or set in motion before birth, or establish which types of evolutionary engineering are acceptable.	但立法保护儿童福利并不能充分解决出生前行为所产生的伤害，也不能决定哪些类型的基因工程是可以接受的。


Most of the reproductive decisions parents make cannot be carried out without the aid of professionals such as physicians, so it might be necessary to regulate professional behavior as well.	父母所做的大部分生殖决定都是在医生等专业人士的协助下才能做出的，因此或许有必要同时监管职业操守。


While some of the infrastructure, such as licensure laws for physicians, is already in place, additional steps may be needed, such as heightened regulation of infertility clinics, where many genetic-engineering interventions will take place.	一些基础设施，比如医生执业法已经存在，但仍需采取更多的措施，比如加强对妇产科（大量基因工程干预发生在这里）的监管。


Furthermore, rules must be established for assessing the safety and effectiveness of new technologies with respect both to immediate recipients and their descendants.	此外，必须制定评估新技术安全性和有效性的规则，要兼顾这些技术的接受者和他们的后代。


Some forms of evolutionary engineering that do not directly harm individuals, and therefore would not be subject to such regulations, such as decisions by all parents to make the same genetic changes in their offspring, could threaten the survival of the human lineage.	某些不会直接伤害个体从而不受这些监管措施约束的基因工程，如所有父母都为后代选择相同的基因，可能会威胁人类种系的生存。


Public-health systems could respond to this concern.	公共卫生系统可以应对这一忧虑。


Yet, in view of past efforts by officials to employ genetics to improve public health – most notably, the early-twentieth-century eugenics movement, with its appalling forced sterilization campaigns – it is important to ensure that such power is wielded judiciously and on the basis of sound science.	但是，审视过去官员用遗传学改善公共卫生的努力就会发现——最著名者当属20世纪早期的优生学运动及其可怕的强迫绝育——确保这一权力不被滥用且必须以科学为依据是极其重要的。


Finally, if too few members of society enjoy too great a genetic advantage, social cohesion and democratic institutions could be threatened even in the absence of any direct physical harm.	最后，如果社会中的一小撮人享受了巨大的遗传优势，则社会团结和民主制度可能受到威胁，即使没有直接身体伤害。


If the genetic engineering that we allow is to benefit our descendants, it must be as widely available as possible.	要让我们所允许进行的基因工程惠及我们的后代，就必须尽可能地扩大其接触面。


Genetic Property Rights on Trial	基因所有权接受审判


LONDON – In early February 2010, a United States federal district court in New York began deciding a landmark case as to whether individuals have a “right to know” about how their own genomes can dictate their future health.	伦敦 ——2010 年 2 月上旬，纽约一家美国联邦地区法院开始审理一宗具有标志性意义的案件，裁定个人是否对自己体内的基因组将以何种方式决定他们未来的健康状况“有知情权”。


The case, American Civil Liberties Union v. Myriad Genetics , may have a tremendous impact on medicine and science.	这起由 美国民权联盟 起诉 迈里德遗传学公司 的案件可能会在很大程度上影响医学的进步和科学的发展。


The questions on which the case turns are whether genetic patents help or hamper research, and whether patients should have to pay a license fee to a biotechnology corporation to be tested for predisposition to disease.	此案争论的焦点在于基因专利究竟帮助还是阻碍了相关研究的发展，以及患者是否必需向生物技术公司付费，才能测试自己的疾病倾向。


One of the plaintiffs is Lisbeth Ceriani, a 43-year-old woman with breast cancer whose doctors recommended that she be tested for two genetic mutations involved in some hereditary forms of the disease.	原告之一名叫 利斯贝思·切里亚尼，她是一位 43 岁患有乳腺癌的女性，医生建议她接受与乳腺癌特定遗传形式相关的两项基因突变测试。


Myriad Genetics, the sole test provider in the US – it holds a patent on the genes themselves , not just on the diagnostic test – did not accept her insurance, and Ceriani could not afford to pay for the test.	美国唯一一家测试服务提供商 迈里德遗传学公司拒绝接受她的保险，而 切里亚尼则因此无法承担测试开销。 迈里德遗传学公司不仅拥有诊断测试专利，而且掌握着 基因本身 的专利所有权。


So she remained ignorant, as did her physicians – with possible ramifications for her clinical care.	切里亚尼和她的主治大夫也因此无法获知其临床治疗的可能结果。


Five other plaintiffs – along with major medical bodies – tell similar stories.	此案的其他五名原告 —— 及各大医疗机构 —— 也提出了类似的申诉。


Those who oppose genetic patents claim that they also deny US constitutional rights, making this the first time a genetic patent has been challenged on human rights grounds.	基因专利反对者称这种做法践踏了美国的宪法权利，这也是基因专利首次从人权角度接受挑战。


As so often happens in biotechnology, what looks at first like an abstruse technical issue raises many questions that cut to the core of our humanity.	正如生物技术领域屡见不鲜的情形一样，第一眼看上去复杂深奥的技术问题却是触及人道主义核心问题的疑问根源。


One human gene out of approximately every five is now the subject of a patent, the majority of which are held by private firms.	约有五分之一的人类基因现在成了专利的保护对象，而这些专利中的绝大部分都属于私人企业。


This case concerns two such genes, BRCA1 and BRCA2.	此案涉及上述基因中的两种， BRCA1 和 BRCA2 。


Women with the “wrong” version of these genes have a heightened risk of developing breast cancer (up to 85%, against the normal 12%, although the genes account for only a minority of breast cancers).	这两种基因“出问题”的女性更有可能罹患乳腺癌（发病风险高达 85% ，而正常人的发病风险只有 12% ，尽管这两种基因仅与少数乳腺癌相关）。


These women also run a greater risk of ovarian cancer.	这些女性也更有可能罹患卵巢癌。


Myriad Genetics also has tried to pursue patent rights in Europe, but there its claims have been largely rejected.	迈里德遗传学公司也曾试图在欧洲申请专利，但在那里提交的申请基本上都遭到了拒绝。


Although the gene’s function in causing breast and ovarian cancer was uncovered by Cancer Research UK in 1995, Myriad, along with nearly 30 other defendants, argues that the patent is a necessary reward for its research costs.	虽然英国癌症研究所在 1995 年就发现了这种基因在导致乳腺及卵巢癌中的作用，但迈里德与其他近 30 名被告一道，称专利是为补偿其必要的研究投入。


In fact, without patent protections, the firm and its allies claim, medical research would shudder to a halt.	事实上，公司及其盟友们声称，如果没有相关的专利保护，医学研究必将被迫止步。


But, whatever the merits of the claim that genetic patents benefit research and treatment, that is a practical, rather than a legal, argument.	但无论基因专利惠及研究和治疗的说法有多少理由，这些都只是基于现实、而非法律的论证。


In order to gain legal “standing” to sue Myriad Genetics, critics of genetic patents – including the American Medical Association, the American Society of Human Genetics, and the American Civil Liberties Union – had to find an issue that could be adjudicated on a constitutional basis.	为获得起诉迈里德遗传学公司的法律“依据” —— 包括美国医学协会、美国人类遗传学会和美国民权联盟等机构必需在宪法层面找到判决的依据。


Their innovative strategy is to draw on the First Amendment, which protects freedoms such as speech and religion, to argue that patents restrict patients’ freedom of access to information that might enable us to take action to protect our health.	他们的创新策略是引用保护言论和宗教自由的《第一修正案》，提出专利限制了患者行使知情权的自由，而知情权可能促使我们为保护健康而采取行动。


That is a clever argument, but is it really the source of people’s profound disquiet about genetic patenting?	这是个聪明的提法，但它是否真是人们深刻忧虑基因专利的根源？


In talking about similar issues raised in my recent book Body Shopping , I have heard many shocked reactions to the growing commodification of human tissue, but none more generally shared than this one: how can you take out a patent on life?	在对我不久前的新著 《人体购物》 所提出的问题进行探讨时，我已经听到对人体组织日益商品化的许多惊人反应，但哪一种都不如本案更有代表性：怎么能对生命申请专利呢？


Is a genetic variant a “product of nature” or a “discovery”?	遗传变异究竟是“自然的产物”还是一种“发现”？


While the plaintiffs assert that “genes are identified, not invented,” the defendants claim that the basis of patent law is precisely the opposite.	在原告方宣称“基因只能被识别而不能被发明”时，被告方则提出专利法的法律基础与之恰恰相反。


Their argument is that what is patented is not the gene as it occurs in our bodies, but rather a sort of “cloned” version produced in the laboratory.	他们认为被授予专利的不是存在于我们体内的基因，而是在实验室中经过“克隆”的版本。


Rather than a “patent on life,” the companies say, they are patenting something more like a chemical.	生物公司宣称，与其争议所谓的“生命专利”，他们申请专利的更像是某种化学产品。


If that is true, how can Ceriani rightfully be kept in the dark about what form the gene takes in her body?	如果上述前提成立，那么怎 能合法地对切里亚尼隐瞒她体内的基因构成？


This is not just a problem for people who think – wrongly, in legal terms – that they own their bodies, as most people do.	这绝不只是那些认为可以合法拥有自己身体的人们的问题，这样的想法绝大多数人都��，但在法律意义上却属于错误概念。


With a few limited and recent exceptions, there is no such thing as property in tissue once it has left your body.	除少数几个有限度的近期例子外，我们从约翰·摩尔的案例中获悉，对于已经离开身体的组织并不存在任何所有权。


We know that from such cases as that of John Moore, who tried unsuccessfully to claim property rights in a valuable cell line developed from his immune cells.	摩尔试图获得以其免疫细胞发展的有价值细胞系的所有权，但并没有获得法院的支持。


But what about a gene that has not left my body?	但 没有 离开我身体的基因呢？


Don’t I somehow still “own” it?	我是否以某种方式“掌握”其所有权？


Don’t I have rights of control over my own body?	难道我没有控制自己身体的权利？


How can a commercial firm not only deny me the right to know my own genetic profile unless I pay their fee for the diagnostic test, which might be fair enough, but also to prevent any other firm from offering me a similar test unless those firms pay it a license fee?	某家商业企业怎能不仅剥夺我对自己基因档案的知情权（除非我付给他们诊断测试的费用），这还不算过份，甚至还阻止其他公司为我进行类似的测试（除非那些企业支付所谓的许可费）？


Proprietary rights for commercial firms over the most basic element of an individual’s genetic identity should not be enforceable.	商业公司针对个人遗传特征基本元素的所有权根本不具有可行性。


We do not have to believe in genetic determinism to find that argument compelling.	我们无需相信遗传决定论，也知道这种说法肯定正确。


The Age of Epigenetics	发育遗传学时代


LONDON – Fifty-one years ago, James Watson, Maurice Wilkins, and Francis Crick were awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine for their discovery of DNA’s structure – a breakthrough that heralded the age of the gene.	伦敦—51年前，詹姆斯·沃森、莫里斯·威尔金斯和弗朗西斯·克里克因发现DNA结构而被授予诺贝尔医学奖，他们的发现开启了基因时代。


Since then, the field of genetics has advanced significantly, particularly as a result of the global Human Genome Project, which in 2003 identified all of the roughly 23,000 genes and three billion chemical base pairs in human DNA in order to screen for many rare diseases.	至此以后，遗传学获得了极大的进步，特别受到了人类基因组计划的推动，2003年，该计划识别了人类DNA的所有23000个左右的基因和30亿化学碱基对，其目的是绘制大量罕见疾病的图谱。


But, despite evidence that most diseases have a clear genetic component, only a fraction of the genes that explain them have been found.	但是，尽管有证据表明大部分疾病都有清晰的基因因素，但解释这些疾病的基因只有一小部分被找到了。


And scientists in the field remain puzzled by the fact that most identical twins (who share 100% of their genes) do not die from the same diseases.	该领域的科学家仍被一个事实所困扰：同卵双胞胎（基因100%相同）并不因同样的疾病而死亡。


As a result, many in the scientific community are beginning to predict a decline in the role of the gene in pinpointing the root causes of diseases.	于是科学界许多人开始预言，基因在准确定义病根方面的作用将降低。


It is too soon to discount genetics, however, because the science of “epigenetics” – the study of mechanisms for turning genes on and off, thus changing the way a cell develops without altering the genetic code – is gaining traction.	小看遗传学还为时尚早，因为“发育遗传学”——研究基因开关的机制，从而在不改变遗传编码的情况下改变细胞发育状况——正在成为显学。


Indeed, the 2012 Nobel Prize in Medicine was awarded to John Gurdon and Shinya Yamanaka for revolutionizing scientists’ understanding of how cells develop by reprogramming DNA and cells without altering their genetic structure.	事实上，2012年诺贝尔医学奖得主约翰·戈登和山中伸弥的成就便是对科学家通过在不改变遗传结构的情况下对DNA和细胞重新编码而理解细胞如何发育做出了革命性贡献。


In 1962, Gurdon’s finding that almost any cell in the body contains the complete DNA code enabled him to create a tadpole by cloning an adult frog.	1962年，戈登发现几乎所有肌体细胞都包含全套DNA编码，这一发现让他能够通过克隆成年青蛙制造出一条蝌蚪。


More than four decades later, in 2006, Yamanaka discovered a way to trick complex adult cells in mice into regressing to their immature state, forming stem cells.	40多年后，2006年，山中伸弥发现了欺骗复杂的老鼠体细胞使之退化到不成熟状态形成干细胞的方法。


Before this, stem cells – which can potentially be reprogrammed to develop into replacements for lost or damaged tissue – could be taken only from early-stage embryos, a practice that fueled ethical controversy.	在此之前，干细胞——能够重新编码使之发育成丢失或受损组织——只能通过早期胚胎获得，因而激发了伦理争议。


The true promise of epigenetics has become apparent only in the last few years, as scientists’ ability to assess the epigenetic mechanisms in DNA – which can now be measured at roughly 30 million points across the human genome – has dramatically improved.	发育遗传学的真正意义在近几年才显现出来，这是因为科学家理解DNA的发育遗传机制（现在可以通过人类基因组上的约3 000万个点测出）的能力有了极大的提升。


Epigenetics can potentially be used to explain the root causes of many diseases that scientists have so far struggled to understand, from asthma to allergies to autism.	发育遗传学可以用于解释许多科学家至今仍在努力弄懂的疾病的根源，比如哮喘、过敏和自闭症。


Consider lung cancer.	就拿肺癌来说吧。


Six decades ago, when most men smoked, British doctors linked smoking to lung cancer, making it the first disease to be causally linked to smoking.	60年前，大部分男性都是烟民，英国医生将吸烟和肺癌挂钩起来，这也是第一个将吸烟视为诱因之一的疾病。


(In fact, lung cancer kills one in ten smokers.)	（事实上，十个烟民中就有一个因肺癌丧命。


But the incidence of certain kinds of lung cancer continues to rise – particularly in women – making it one of the most prolific killers worldwide, despite the general decline of smoking over the last 30 years.	）但某些类型的肺癌发病率仍继续攀升——特别是在女性当中——肺癌也成为全世界致死人数最多的疾病之一，尽管过去30年来吸烟率总的来说呈下降趋势。


Indeed, nowadays, many lung cancer patients have no history of smoking.	事实上，如今许多肺癌患者根本没有吸烟史。


These “blameless” patients seem to develop a different kind of lung cancer from those who report a history of smoking – one that is more responsive to new medications and has better, albeit still poor, outcomes.	这些“无辜”病人所患的似乎是与报告吸烟史患者不同的肺癌类型——这种肺癌对新药反应更大，疗效也更好（尽管仍需大大改善）。


Epigenetic processes that cause key anti-cancer genes, such as the tumor suppressor P16, to be switched off could explain the increased prevalence of lung cancer.	形成关键抗癌基因——如肿瘤抑制素P16——的发育遗传过程被关闭，这就是肺癌发病率增加的原因。


A recent study showed that a few years of smoking can have this effect, making smokers more susceptible to a variety of cancers.	一份最新研究表明，数年吸烟史会导致这一现象，因此烟民更有可能罹患多种癌症。


My team and I recently studied 36 pairs of identical twins, of which only one twin had breast cancer.	我的团队和我最近研究了36对同卵双胞胎，其中只有一对双胞胎患有乳腺癌。


These “genetic clones” had a few crucial differences.	这些“遗传克隆体”没有重大差别。


In the twin who developed the breast cancer, several hundred genes had been switched off.	在罹患乳腺癌的那对双胞胎中，数百个基因被关闭了。


In a few genes, this had occurred five years before diagnosis.	某些基因在确诊前5年就关闭了。


Such findings unlock the possibility of a diagnostic test well before the disease manifests itself, and of developing drugs that prevent – or even reverse – the cancer’s development.	这一发现使在疾病自我恶化之前很久就确诊成为了可能，也让开发预防——甚至逆转——癌症发展的药物成为可能。


Moreover, animal studies have shown that changes in stress or diet can alter the behavior and genes of future generations.	此外，动物实验表明，压力和饮食变化可能改变未来世代的行为和基因。


As a result, it is likely that epigenetic changes can be inherited.	因此，发育遗传变化是可以遗传的。


For example, smoking could have caused epigenetic changes in a grandparent’s DNA, effectively switching off certain anti-cancer genes.	比如，吸烟可能导致祖父辈DNA的发育遗传变化，关闭某些抗癌基因。


The genes would then be passed down to descendants in this switched-off state.	这些基因将以关闭状态传给子孙后代。


Thus, the toxins that people ingest may not be the only relevant factor should cancer strike; the toxins that their parents or grandparents ingested could also be to blame.	因此，人们摄取的毒素可能并不是罹患癌症的唯一相关因素，父辈和祖父辈所摄取的毒素也是罪魁。


Physical experiments revealing such trans-generational effects are impossible to conduct on humans, so historical or observational data must be used.	揭示这类代际效应的实体实验不可能在人身上进行，因此必须利用历史和观察数据。


One study of children in Bristol showed differences in growth depending on whether their grandfathers had smoked before the age of 11.	一项针对布里斯托（Bristol）儿童的研究表明，成长差异取决于祖父辈是否在11岁以前吸烟。


Their bodies probably reacted defensively, adapting in the short term by changing the genes for the next few generations, or until the “danger” had passed, a so-called “soft inheritance” running in parallel to slower-acting evolutionary forces.	他们的身体可能会出现防御反应，通过改变下几代的基因实现短期适应，或者在“危险”过去之前，所谓的“软遗传”和反应较慢的进化力量一起起着作用。


Fortunately, these epigenetic changes are potentially reversible.	幸运的是，这些发育遗传变化都是可逆转的。


Four epigenetic leukemia drugs, which aim to switch the natural protective genes back on, are now on the market in the United States.	四种发育遗传白血病药物——旨在重新打开自然保护基因——已在美国上市。


More than 40 other epigenetic drugs are being developed, not only for cancer, but also for obesity and even dementia.	另有40多种发育遗传药物正在研发中，它们不仅针对癌症，也针对肥胖甚至痴呆。


In the future, regular epigenetic health check-ups could become standard practice.	在未来，定期发育遗传健康检查将成为标准手段。


More than 50 years on, genes remain crucial to understanding complex diseases – especially given scientists’ ever-improving ability to alter them.	50多年来，基因一直是理解复杂疾病的关键，特别是在科学家预警疾病能力不断改善的情况下。


The age of the gene is far from over; it has simply progressed into the age of epigenetics.	基因时代远远没有结束，只不过升级成了发育遗传学时代。


Harnessing the Genomics Revolution	利用基因组学革命


CAMBRIDGE – Just 13 years after the successful completion of the Human Genome Project, the power of genomics applications to spur innovation is already becoming apparent.	坎布里奇—人类基因组计划成功完成不过13年，基因组学应用刺激创新的力量已经尽显无疑。


Indeed, though the genomics revolution is just getting underway, it is becoming a transformative agent in the global economy – one that promises to bring far-reaching social and environmental benefits.	事实上，尽管基因组革命才刚刚开始，但它正在成为全球经济的变革因素——有望带来深远的社会和环境收益的变革因素。


In the United States alone, the $3.8 billion in public funds invested in the Human Genome Project has already generated close to $1 trillion in economic returns and more than 300,000 jobs.	光是在美国，投资于人类基因组计划的38亿美元公共资金已经产生了近1万亿美元的经济回报和超300,000个工作岗位。


According to the OECD, genomics will become a central component of many economic sectors, including health care, the environment, agriculture, animal health, biotechnology, alternative energy, forensics, justice, and security.	据经合组织数据，基因组学将成为许多经济部门的核心组成部分，包括医疗卫生、环境、农业、动物医学、生物科技、另类能源、法医学、司法和安全等。


With the pace of innovation continuing to accelerate, this prediction will likely be fulfilled even sooner than anticipated.	创新的速度在继续加快，这一预言很可能比预期更快就能实现。


The area where genomics-driven innovations have attracted the most attention is health.	基因组学推动的创新最吸引目光的领域是医学。


Rapid progress toward truly “personalized medicine” is occurring, with patients’ DNA profiles being translated into more individualized, predictive, and preventive medical care.	“个性化医疗”进展迅速，患者的DNA图谱被转化为更加个性化、预测性和预防性的治疗方案。


Already, studies to identify genes associated with common diseases – including some that represent significant health, economic, and social burdens, such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and obesity – are beginning to enable doctors to use patient DNA information to inform clinical care.	目前，与常见疾病——包括一些医疗、经济和社会负担巨大的疾病，如癌症、糖尿病、心血管疾病和肥胖等——相关的基因组识别研究已开始让医生能够利用患者DNA信息指导临床治疗。


And researchers are identifying genetic variations that influence the effects of drugs, allowing safer and more effective administration of medication to manage pain and treat some cancers, as well as cardiovascular and psychiatric diseases.	研究者正在识别影响药物影响的基因变异，让更安全、更有效的用药管理来遏制病痛和治疗某些癌症以及心血管和精神疾病。


Taking these developments a step further, the Precision Medicine Initiative, launched in the US last year, is pursuing innovative trials of targeted drugs for adult and pediatric cancers, introducing customized combination therapies, and honing its understanding of drug resistance.	去年，美国启动了精确医疗计划（Precision Medicine Initiative），该计划将当前的这些进展往前再推动一步，进行成人和幼儿癌症靶向药物创新实验，引入个性化混合疗法，并深化对抗药性的认识。


In the longer term, the project aims to create a research cohort of more than a million volunteers whose shared genetic data, biological samples, and lifestyle information will form the foundation for precision medicine in a large number of human diseases.	在长期，计划的目标是建立一支拥有一百万以上志愿者的研究队伍，他们共享基因组数据、生物样本和生活方式信息，从而形成大量人类疾病精确医疗的基础。


But health care is far from the only area influenced by the genomics-driven revolution.	但医疗绝不是基因组学推动的革命所影响的唯一领域。


There have been game-changing developments in other fields as well, many with proven potential to help address global challenges, such as ensuring food security and safeguarding the environment in the face of a rapidly growing global population, expected to reach 9.6 billion in 35 years.	其他领域也存在局面改变发展趋势，其中不少已经证明具有有助于解决全球挑战的潜力，如在全球人口高速增长、预计35年后达到96亿人的背景下确保粮食安全和保护环境。


Selection of high-value traits using genomics is giving farmers, and the food industry in general, the tools to produce more and better foods.	利用基因组学遴选高价值品种让农民和粮食业总体拥有了生产更多更好粮食的工具。


Rice crops in Southeast Asia, for example, can now be flood-resistant.	比如，东南亚稻米如今已能抵御洪水。


Beef, dairy, and swine herds produce higher output.	牛肉、奶制品和生猪产量有所提高。


The burgeoning fishery and aquaculture sector is benefiting from species with better yields and greater resistance to disease and stress.	迅速发展的渔业和水产养殖业受益于产量更高、抗病和抗压能力更强的物种。


Moreover, by providing detailed information on biodiversity and the interactions within ecosystems, genomics is driving the development of innovative environmental-protection strategies.	此外，基因组学还能提供关于生态系统中生物多样性和互动作用的详细信息，从而推动了创新环境保护战略的开发。


Forests are a prime example.	一个显例是森林。


By broadening our understanding of commercially valuable traits, such as insect resistance, wood quality, growth rates, and adaptation to climate change, genomics has helped to improve the sustainability of tree breeding and forest management.	通过扩展我们对具商业价值的特点的认识，如抗虫性、木质、生长率和对气候变化的适应力，基因组学有助于改善树木育种和森林管理的可持续性。


Canadian and Chinese researchers are also using genomic analysis of the microbial communities living in hydrocarbon deposits to develop new bioprocesses that will make oil and gas extraction greener, by enhancing resource recovery, reducing water and energy use, and minimizing greenhouse-gas emissions.	加拿大和中国研究者还利用对碳氢化合物储量中的微生物群落的基因组学分析开发新的生物反应过程，增强资源恢复、减少水和能源使用、实现温室气体排放最小化，从而让石油和天然气开采变得更加绿色。


The promise of genomics is seemingly limitless.	基因组学的前途似乎不可限量。


But if that promise is to be fulfilled, major challenges must be overcome.	但要想充分实现它的前途，必须克服重大挑战。


In health care, in particular, we need to continue generating solid evidence of the value of moving personalized medicine into routine practice.	特别是在医疗方面，我们需要继续掌握让个人化治疗成为常规手段的价值的切实证据。


Furthermore, rigorous economic analyses are needed to guide policies on health-care coverage and reimbursement.	此外，需要严格的经济分析指导医疗覆盖和报销政策。


Above all, important questions surrounding patient privacy, technology access, reporting of incidental findings, discrimination, and counseling must be answered, so that thoughtful and forward-looking public policies can be devised.	最重要的是，围绕患者隐私、技术普及性、偶然发现的报告、歧视以及咨询的重要问题必须得到回答，从而设计出考虑周详的前瞻性公共政策。


To this end, mechanisms to ensure broad public discussion and participation must be strengthened.	在这方面，确保广泛的公共讨论和参与的机制必须加强。


Even at this early stage, it is clear that genomics is set to transform science and technology and sustain a wave of far-reaching innovation.	显然，即使仍位于早期阶段，基因组学必将改变科学和技术，并维持一波影响深远的创新潮。


Now is the time for countries and regions to embrace genomics research and technologies, and to start translating them into effective solutions to major global, regional, and local challenges.	现在，各国和地区应该接受基因组学研究和技术，并开始将它们转化为对重大全球、地区和地方挑战的有效的解决方案。


The Geography of Elections	选举地理学


PARIS – In many countries, where you live tends to be an accurate predictor of what or whom you are voting for.	巴黎—在许多国家，你住在哪里往往会成为你如何投票的准确预测指标。


This was most evident in the maps of the electoral geography of voting for “Leave” and “Remain” in the United Kingdom’s June referendum on European Union membership.	英国6月份关于“脱离”还是“留在”欧盟的全民公投最能体现选举地理学的地图。


A similar pattern can be found in the distribution of votes in the 2012 US presidential election or in French support for Marine Le Pen’s National Front in the 2015 regional elections.	2012年美国总统选举或2015年法国地方选举中对马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）的国民阵线的支持也体现出类似的模式。


It is very likely to be found in the United States’ upcoming presidential election.	即将到来的美国总统选举很有可能也是如此。


Many citizens live in places where a large share of their neighbors vote the same way they do.	许多人会选择大部分邻居选择的候选人。


This voting geography is indicative of a deep economic, social, and educational divide.	这一投票地理学体现出深刻的经济、社会和教育分歧。


Affluent cities, where university graduates concentrate, tend to vote for internationally-minded, often center-left candidates, while lower middle-class and working-class districts tend to vote for trade-adverse candidates, often from the nationalist right.	大学毕业生集中的丰裕城市往往投票给具有国际思维、通常是中左翼的候选人，而中低阶级和工人阶级选区常常投票给往往来自民族主义右翼的反贸易候选人。


It is no accident that mayors from the center-left govern New York, London, Paris, and Berlin, whereas smaller, struggling cities tend to prefer hard-right politicians.	纽约、伦敦、巴黎和柏林的市长都来自中左翼，而规模较小、情况较困难的城市常常喜欢强硬右派政客，这绝非巧合。


Regional or local voting patterns are as old as democracy.	地区或地方选举模式和民主一样古老。


What is new is a growing correlation of spatial, social, and political polarization that is turning fellow citizens into near-strangers.	新情况是空间、社会和政治极化的相关性日益增加，并且正在让同一国家的公民成为最熟悉的陌生人。


As Enrico Moretti of the University of California at Berkeley emphasized in his book The New Geography of Jobs, the salience of this new divide is unmistakable: university graduates account for half of the total population in the most affluent US metropolitan areas, but are four times less numerous in worse-off areas.	加州大学伯克利分校的恩里克·莫雷蒂（Enrico Morette）在《新就业地理学》（The New Geography of Jobs）一书中强调，这一新分歧非常突出：在美国最丰裕的大都会地区，大学毕业生占总人口的一半，但最落后地区的大学毕业生人数要少四倍。


Economic shocks tend to exacerbate this political divide.	经济冲击总是会加剧这一政治分歧。


Those who happen to live and work in traditional manufacturing districts caught in the turmoil of globalization are multiple losers: their jobs, their housing wealth, and the fortunes of their children and relatives are all highly correlated.	碰巧生活和工作在受全球化冲击的传统制造业地区的人沦为多重输家：他们的工作、家庭财富以及孩子和亲人的命运都与此息息相关。


In fascinating new research, MIT’s David Autor and his co-authors have explored the political consequences.	在精彩的新研究中，MIT的大卫·奥拓尔（David Autor）与合作者探索了政治后果。


They find that US districts where the economy was severely hit by Chinese exports have responded by replacing moderate representatives with more radical politicians – either from the left or the right.	他们发现，经济受中国出口影响严重的美国选区，做出的反应是用更加激进的政客取代较为温和的代表——不管是左翼还是右翼。


Globalization, therefore, has resulted in both economic and political polarization.	因此，全球化导致经济和政治都出现极化。