This is arguably genocide, a word used by the U.S. government but by few others to describe what is going on in Darfur.	这甚至可以称得上是种族灭绝，美国政府就是这么定义达尔富尔事件的，但大多数国家并没有这么认为。


Meanwhile, world leaders are debating what if anything should be done.	与此同时，世界领袖们正在争论如果采取措施会是怎样一种情况。


UN Security Council Resolution 1564, passed on 18 September 2004, reserves the bulk of its criticism for the government of Sudan.	联合国安理会2004年9月18日通过了1564号决议，把大部分矛头指向了苏丹政府。


But the UN is not yet prepared to go beyond words.	但联合国还没有纸面以外的计划。


The resolution threatens that the Security Council will consider imposing sanctions against Sudanese leaders or against the country’s important oil sector, but introduces no penalties at this time.	决议威胁说安理会可能考虑对苏丹领导人或该国重要的石油工业进行制裁，但现在还没落实任何处罚措施。


Why the hesitation?	为什么要犹豫呢？


More than anything else it stems from international reluctance to challenge any government over what it is doing within its own territory.	这里最重要的原因恐怕是国际社会都不愿插手别国政府的国内事务。


This reflects a widely-held view of sovereignty, one that allows governments to do essentially what they want within their own borders.	这反映了人们普遍接受的主权观，这种观念使政府在自己国内几乎可以为所欲为。


Such thinking is inadequate and outmoded.	这种观念既过时又不恰当。


To begin with, there is a moral element. There is something wrong in looking the other way when one’s fellow human being is being slaughtered.	首先，这涉及道德因素，在自己的同类遭受杀戮的时候别过头去本身就是错误的。


We all have some basic obligation to one another.	我们都须要对彼此负起最基本的责任。


There are as well pragmatic considerations.	此外也有实用主义的考虑。


In a global world, what happens within one country can all too easily affect others.	在全球化社会里，一个国家发生的事情很容易影响到其它国家。


For example, refugees leaving Sudan can strain the stability of neighboring Chad.	举个例子，逃离苏丹的难民会对邻国乍得的稳定构成威胁。


Opposition to genocide and other large-scale acts of violence against a population also reflects the established principle that citizens as well as governments have rights.	反对种族清洗和其它针对某个群体的大规模暴力活动也反映了一个约定俗成的原则：那就是公民和政府都有自己的权利。


This principle is enshrined in various international documents, beginning with the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights.	这项原则被写入了很多国际文件，其中最早的是1948年发表的《世界人权宣言》。


Governments ought not to be allowed to massacre their own people. And weak governments should not be allowed to permit massacres to take place on their own territory even if they are not themselves carrying out the massacre.	不该容许政府屠杀自己的百姓，也不该容许弱小的政府看着屠杀民众的事情发生而坐视不理，即便他们自己没有参与屠杀。


What all this adds up to is a requirement for a concept of state sovereignty that is less than absolute.	总的来讲，这意味着国家主权的非绝对化。


To be precise, we need to embrace a contractual approach to sovereignty, one that recognizes the obligations and responsibilities as well as the rights of those who enjoy it.	准确的讲，我们也要对主权实行契约制，也就是既承认所有者的责任与义务，也保护他们所享有的权利。


Such an approach to sovereignty would essentially communicate to governments and their leaders that the rights and protections they associate with statehood are in fact conditional, and that governments and leaders would forfeit some or, in extreme cases, all of these rights and protections if they failed to meet their obligations.	这样的主权观实质上会告诉政府和它们的领袖，享有与主权相关的保护和权利是有条件的，如果他们没尽到自己的义务，那么就会相应地丧失部分、乃至在极端状况下，全部的保护和权利。


This idea will only have an impact if the international community is prepared to go beyond voicing this principle and accept the necessary consequence: that other states and the world at large have a right and a duty to act to protect innocent life when it is jeopardized on a large scale.	如果国际社会不是仅停留在口头宣传、而是准备好接受一切必要的后果，那么这种观念就会产生影响，那就是：保护无辜的生命免遭大规模杀戮是其它国家乃至全世界的权利和责任。


Some movement in just this direction was suggested by widespread international support for the humanitarian interventions in Bosnia, Kosovo, and East Timor.	国际社会对波斯尼亚、科索沃、东帝汶等地区人道主义干涉行动的普遍支持就体现了这样的趋势。


Another sign of change is the basic document (“Constitutive Act”) of the African Union, the regional organization launched in July 2000 to replace the ineffective Organization of African Unity.	上述变化的另一标志是修改了非洲联盟的基本文件（《基本法案》），非盟成立于2000年7月，代替了效率低下的非统组织行使地区管理的职能。


After citing the principle of non-interference by one member state in the internal affairs of another, the document goes on to declare “the right of the Union to intervene in a member state pursuant to a decision of the assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.”	在表明互不干涉别国内政的基本原则后，文件接着宣布了"如果成员国大会由于战争犯罪、种族清洗和人道主义犯罪等严重局势做出相应的决策，则非盟保留干预其成员国内部事务的权利。


Intervention in such circumstances can take any number of forms, from public rhetoric and private diplomacy to economic and political sanctions to armed intervention.	"这种情况下的干预可以采取任何形式，包括公开声明、秘密外交、经济政治制裁直至武装干涉。


All of which brings us back to Darfur. What needs doing?	说了这些以后，我们再回到达尔富尔，我们能做什么？


There is a need for massive assistance to the displaced people of Darfur. Those who have survived conflict require help if they are not to succumb to disease and starvation.	那里流离失所的人民迫切需要我们的帮助，那些从冲突中侥幸逃生的人们如果不想倒毙在疾病和饥饿之下，就需要我们伸出援手。


There is also every reason to renew diplomatic efforts to bring about a lasting cease-fire and, following that, a settlement that addresses the grievances that helped bring about this crisis in the first place.	我们还要继续进行外交努力，以实现持久停火，而后还要拿出解决方案，彻底铲除造成这次危机的主要根源。


Two other points require highlighting, though.	但还要强调两点。


First, and consistent with UN Security Council Resolution 1564, countries should provide the African Union with the logistical, material, and financial help it has asked for.	第一点，按照联合国安理会第1564号决议，各国要为非盟提供所需的后勤、物质及资金援助。


With such support, AU-authorized troops could guard the refugee camps and, over time, protect villages so that men, women and children could return home in safety.	有了这些援助，非盟授权的部队就可以保护难民营、今后还要保护普通的村庄，让男人、女人和孩子们安全地重返家园。


Second, the UN ought to make good on its threat and impose sanctions against the Sudanese government unless it stops using its aircraft to destroy villages and unless it stops supporting the jangaweed.	其次，联合国应该兑现自己的承诺，对苏丹政府实施制裁，除非它停止用飞机轰炸村庄、停止为Jangaweed提供支持。


Criminal indictments for war crimes ought to be issued against specific officials who do not comply.	此外还要对不听命令的具体官员提出战争罪起诉。


It is important that the world act, not simply to save the people of Darfur, but to prevent future Darfurs.	全世界一定得行动起来，这不仅是为了拯救达尔富尔的人民，而且是为了防止达尔富尔惨剧在未来重演。


A great deal of innocent human life depends on it.	这关系到无数无辜者的生命。


Darkness or Dawn in Belarus?	白俄罗斯：黑夜还是黎明？


WASHINGTON, DC – As pro-democracy protests sweep the Arab world, Belarus, Europe’s grim quasi-Soviet redoubt, has taken a turn for the worse since President Aleksander Lukashenko violently suppressed post-election demonstrations in December and imprisoned seven of the nine candidates who stood against him.	发自华盛顿特区——随着民主浪潮席卷整个阿拉伯地区，白俄罗斯这块欧洲前苏联阵营最后阵地的形势也急剧恶化——总统亚历山大·卢卡申科于去年12月暴力镇压大选后示威活动并将9位反对他的总统候选人中的7位投入监狱。


But, as Western governments – and European Union government, in particular – respond, they should view Lukashenko’s brutal crackdown as a major turning point: the moment when the regime could no longer claim popular support and was forced to confront the failure of its antediluvian socioeconomic model.	而在世界各国及地区政府——尤其是欧盟——对此作出回应之时，他们应当将卢卡申科的残酷镇压视为一个重要的转折点：该政权已经无法获得民众的支持，并被迫面对其腐朽落后的社会经济模式所导致的恶果了。


Lukashenko’s regime has rested on three pillars: a social contract that promises national independence and a guaranteed low income in exchange for tacit consent to dictatorial rule; a propaganda machine that reinforces the value and necessity of this deal; and a massive security apparatus to enforce it.	卢卡申科的政权是构筑在三大基础之上的：首先是政府承诺维护民族独立并确保民众至少能拥有一份低收入，而“交易”的筹码则是要民众默许独裁统治； 其次是一个不断灌输这种价值观和“交易”必要性的宣传机器；


For many years after Lukashenko was first elected, in 1994 (he has ruled without interruption ever since), most Belarusians did perhaps tolerate the regime, because they believed that it protected them from the worst excesses of neighboring Russia’s “Wild East” capitalism: corrupt privatization, job losses, and mafia rule.	或许在1994年卢卡申科首次上台并执政至今的这十几年间，大多数白俄罗斯人确实认同过这种统治，因为他们相信这样能令自己不致遭遇邻国俄罗斯的那种“东方式的疯狂资本主义”所引发的乱象：腐败丛生的私有化，失业和黑手党统治。


But, over time, and with more Belarusians traveling to the West, belief in Lukashenko’s leadership has become unsustainable.	但随着时间的流逝以及白俄罗斯人逐渐了解西方，对卢卡申科的信任就再也无法维系下去了。


Wages are much lower than official figures suggest – perhaps as low as $200-300 per month.	民众的工资水平比官方公布的数字要低得多——大概每月只有200~300美元。


The unemployment rate is 0.7%, but largely because those who register at labor offices are put to work in community-service jobs paying $10-15 per month.	失业率仅0. 7%，但主要原因是那些在劳动部门注册的失业者都被发配去一些每月只有10~15美元报酬的社会服务工作。


Prices are high, owing to trade restrictions and government support for inefficient state enterprises.	物价极高，因为政府限制贸易并扶持那些效率极低的国有企业。 官方公布的2010年经济增长率为7.


Economic growth, pumped up during the run-up to the presidential election by enormous fiscal spending – two-thirds of the economy is state-owned – was officially 7.6% in 2010, but the rate has plummeted since, though no one is saying by how much.	6%，但主要来自于为卢卡申科竞选连任造势的大规模财政支出——须知整个国家经济的2/3都是由国有企业构成——而这个数字自那以后就大幅下降，也没人说得清楚究竟下降了多少。


Whatever its past successes in maintaining basic living standards, today it is evident that Belarus cannot match its neighbors’ dynamism.	尽管过去在维持基本生活水平上取得了成功，但当前的现实就是白俄罗斯早已无法赶上蒸蒸日上的邻国了。


While many pensioners and some workers remain content with life under Lukashenko, young people, and those with the most education and talent, voted against him in December – and much evidence suggests that he won less than 50%.	虽然有许多退休人员和一些工人对卢卡申科的统治表示满意，但许多年轻人和受过教育的人都在去年12月的大选中投了反对票——大量证据显示总统只获得了全部票数中的不到50%


That, apparently, was too much for the president’s fragile ego.	这个现实显然对总统脆弱的自尊造成了打击。


Amid mounting repression and growing Western protest, Lukashenko vowed in his inauguration address in January that he would tolerate no threat to “stability.”	在不断的镇压和西方逐渐增多的抗议声中，卢卡申科在1月的就职演说中声称自己不会容忍对“稳定”的任何威胁。


And yet Lukashenko is no fool.	但卢卡申科也不是个傻子。


He might not respect the outcome of elections, but he cannot afford to ignore what the last one revealed about the depths of his regime’s unpopularity.	他或许不会尊重选举的结果，但也无法忽视最近这场大选所反映出的政权极端不受欢迎的现实。


His problem is the regime’s utter loss of legitimacy, which means that repression will not be enough.	他所面临的问题是执政合法性的极大流失，而这意味着单靠镇压已经无法解决问题了。


He needs to strike a new bargain with Belarusians, and he knows it: economic modernization with political “stability.”	为此卢卡申科需要与白俄罗斯人谈一场新的“交易”，其中的内容也是他盘算好的：经济上的现代化与政治上的“稳定”。


The first steps will be taken this year.	“交易”的第一步将在今年展开。


The regime currently operates a bloated, inefficient industrial sector to maintain employment, which is possible because the government derives most of its revenue from natural-resources trade (mainly refined Russian oil and domestic potash deposits) and transit fees for deliveries of Russian oil and natural gas to Europe.	当局目前只能依赖国内臃肿而低效的工业来维持就业率，这大概是因为政府的大部分财政收入都是来自于自然资源贸易（主要是提炼俄罗斯原油以及国内的钾矿）以及将俄罗斯石油天然气输往欧洲的运费。


Yet now, Lukashenko wishes to harness entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment in a bid to modernize the economy.	如今卢卡申科寄望于利用民间创业和外国直接投资来实现经济现代化。


Belarus already has a budding software industry that reports net annual revenues of $300 million.	白俄罗斯已经拥有了一个据报年纯收入达3亿美元的新生软件工业。


And, with Austrian money and World Bank support, officials are drawing up a privatization program that will cover a significant proportion of the country’s mainly state-owned industry.	同时在奥地利和世界银行的支持下，政府正在起草一个覆盖大多数本国主要国有企业的私有化项目。


While the specific companies to be sold have not been announced, the government has indicated that it would sell a 25% share of the giant potash producer Belaruskali.	虽然没有列明具体将出售哪些企业，但政府也已宣布将出售巨型钾肥生产商“白俄罗斯钾肥生产联合体”25%的股份。


Lukashenko hopes that dramatic economic reforms will win Western support, disarm foreign and domestic critics, and achieve economic modernization under authoritarian rule.	卢卡申科希望这种大规模的经济改革能赢得西方的支持，平息国内外的批评，并在专制统治下实现经济现代化。


But he risks angering laid-off workers and empowering inefficient crony capitalists, while moving too slowly to satisfy the desires of those who voted (and took to the streets to protest) against him.	但他可能因此触怒那些下岗工人并助长效率低下的权贵资本，而如果改革步伐太慢的话又无法满足那些投票反对（以及上街抗议）他的人。


And Belarus is no China: it is not too big to be punished for its government’s behavior.	更何况白俄罗斯又不是中国那��举足轻重的大国，后者的政府即便胡作非为也没人敢惩罚它。


Yet Western policy towards Belarus must be carefully modulated, and it should emphasize Europe’s soft power – the attractiveness of its social model to an increasing number of Belarusians.	但西方对白俄罗斯的政策也必须进行小心调整，并应当将重点放在欧洲的软实力上——也就是其社会模式对白俄罗斯人的吸引力。


The West needs to cultivate relations with these people and invest in the economy, while rejecting the brutality of the regime, which may become easier if privatization moves ahead.	西方需要在反对该政权残酷统治的同时与其民众培养感情并投资于该国经济，如果私有化进程顺利的话这一切都将更容易推行。


Visa policy will be a big part of the solution.	而签证政策将是该方案的重要组成部分。


Belarusians currently pay €60 for an EU tourist visa, which is a major obstacle in view of low wages.	白俄罗斯人目前需要在申请欧盟签证时支付60欧元，这相对于当地的低收入来说堪称一大障碍。


Poland has announced that it will grant Belarusians visas at no cost, while denying visas to a long list of regime officials that it says were involved in the recent electoral fraud.	波兰已经宣布将向白俄罗斯申请者免费颁发签证，但同时也拒绝颁发签证给（据波兰官方宣称）参与了最近大选舞弊的一大批白俄罗斯官员。


The rest of the EU has followed suit on sanctions against top officials, but could do more to liberalize travel for citizens.	其他欧盟国家也采取了相关制裁，但在放宽白俄罗斯居民签证待遇方面暂时还无所作为。


Economic engagement is more controversial.	此外在经济方面的合作则充满争议。


Investment in Belarus arguably strengthens the regime, but it also may be necessary for the eventual emergence of a democratic Belarus.	有人认为投资白俄罗斯就是助纣为虐，但这同时也有助于一个民主白俄罗斯的最终实现。


Person-to-person exchanges should also be encouraged, and the support that countries like Poland give to the Belarusian opposition should be stepped up.	私人之间的交易也应当鼓励，而波兰这样的国家对白俄罗斯反对派的支持力度也应该加大。


The bottom line is this: Belarus’s ordinary people and victims of repression need help today. But so does its decrepit regime.	一言以蔽之：白俄罗斯的普通民众和被镇压的受害者无疑亟待帮助，但这个日薄西山的政权也是需要有人扶它一把，而西方也应该最大限度地在这一点上做文章。


Darwin, the Greatest Psychologist	达尔文，最伟大的心理学家


CORONADO, CALIFORNIA – Most people do not think of Charles Darwin as a psychologist.	科罗纳多，加利福尼亚—大部分人不会把达尔文看做是心理学家。


In fact, his work revolutionized the field.	事实上，他的工作开启了这一领域的革命。


Before Darwin, philosophical speculation shaped our psychological understanding.	在达尔文之前，哲学猜测主宰着我们的心理学理解。


But even great philosophers – Plato, Aristotle, Hobbes, Hume, Locke, Kant, Schopenhauer, Nietzsche, and others – could only describe current mental events and behaviors; they could not explain their causes.	但即使是伟大的哲学家——柏拉图、亚里士多德、霍布斯、休谟、洛克、康德、叔本华、尼采等——也只能描述当下的精神事件和行为； 而不能解释它们的原因。


Darwin provided the profound understanding that evolution has influenced the shape of our minds as strongly as it has the shape of our bodies.	达尔文提出了深刻的洞见——进化对我们观念的影响与对我们身体的影响一样大。


Since humans evolved from the same primate ancestor as modern chimpanzees or gorillas, he suggested one could learn more by comparing human instincts, emotions, and behaviors to those of animals than one can surmise from subjective speculation.	他认为，既然人类是从与现代黑猩猩和大猩猩共有的始祖进化而来的，那么将人类的本能、情感和行为与那些动物相比较应该能比主观猜测学到更多东西。


As he put it, “he who understands baboon would do more towards metaphysics than Locke.”	达尔文说，“理解了狒狒，你就比洛克更接近形而上学。 ”


Philosophy is inadequate to understand the roots of human psychology, because self-reflection does not make us aware of the forces that drive most of our reactions to the environment.	哲学不足以理解人类心理的根源，因为自我思考不能使我们知晓我们大部分对环境的反应的背后驱动力。


Rather, we are subject to inborn tendencies, which develop through the reciprocally influential forces of natural and sexual selection.	相反，我们受天生倾向的控制，而天生倾向是通过自然和性选择的互惠影响力量发展出来的。


Natural selection is the process by which the variants within a species that are best adapted to survive in their environment win the reproductive contest – at least until an even better-adapted variant comes along.	自然选择是同一物种中最能适应环境的群体赢得生殖竞争的过程——直至出现更加适应的群体。


The traits that enable people to feed and protect themselves increase the likelihood that they will live long enough to produce offspring, whom they will be able to feed and protect until maturity.	让人们得以果腹和保护自己的特征增加了我们活得足够长能生育后代，并且把后代哺育和保护直至成年的可能性。


In a sense, sexual selection is the psychological extension of natural selection.	从某种程度上说，性选择是自然选择的心理延伸。


But, instead of gaining an advantage from traits that enhance one’s ability to survive, one gains an advantage from qualities that potential mates have evolved to find appealing.	但是，我们并没有从增加我们生存能力的特征中获得优势，而是从潜在伴侣进化出来的寻找吸引力的品质中获得优势。


Given that humans’ sexual choices determine who reproduces most and, in turn, which physical and psychological features are favored over time, a trait that may not help a person to survive can still provide a reproductive advantage that is passed along to offspring.	由于人类性选择决定了谁能有最多的后代，从而反过来决定了那些生理和心理特征更能传递下去，因此无助于个人生存的特征仍可能提供生殖优势，从而传递给后代。


In other words, in choosing a mate, one shapes the course of evolution.	换句话说，在选择伴侣的过程中，我们决定了进化的进程。


Moreover, the principle of sexual selection implies that, in addition to regulating bodily functions, the nervous system indirectly influences the progressive development of bodily and mental structures such as ornamental appendages; cognitive skills like musical ability; and characteristics such as courage and perseverance.	此外，性选择的原理意味着，除了调节生体机能，神经系统还间接地影响身体和精神的结构结构（比如装饰性特征）、认知技能（比如音乐天赋）和性格（比如勇气和毅力）的进步发展。


Peacocks have evolved to have long, colorful feathers simply because peahens have evolved to find them attractive.	雄孔雀进化出了色彩斑斓的长尾，唯一原因是雌孔雀进化出了以此判断吸引力的功能。


Darwin explained that such qualities are propagated and enhanced over generations, through “the exertion of choice, the influence of love and jealousy, and the appreciation of the beautiful in sound, color, or form.”	达尔文解释道，这些品质是通过“运用选择、爱慕和嫉妒的影响以及声音、色彩和形状方面的审美”而代际传递并强化的。


Indeed, while natural selection is blind, sexual selection has an eye for beauty – although the nature of beauty is always in the eye of the beholder.	事实上，虽说自然选择是盲目的，但性选择是追求美的——尽管情人眼里出西施。


Given that human psychology has developed through a sometimes-uneasy balance of natural and sexual selection, evolution and psychology influence and interact with each other.	人类心理学是通过有时并不容易的自然和性选择平衡发展出来的，因此进化和心理会相互影响和互动。


Darwin’s contributions to understanding human psychology involved careful study of child development, which he reported in 1877 in “Biographical Sketch of an Infant.”	达尔文在理解人类心理方面的贡献包括仔细研究了儿童发育，并发表在1877年的《一个婴儿的白描》（Biographical Sketch of an Infant）上。


For the first three years of his first-born son William’s life, Darwin observed him with the practiced eye of a naturalist, recording developments as diverse as his ability to follow a candle with his eyes to the first manifestations of conscience.	在他长子威廉（William）出生后的第一个三年中，达尔文以博物学家的老道眼光观察他，记录他的各项发育，从眼睛追逐蜡烛的能力到第一次有意识的动作的发生无所不包。


Darwin also pioneered the experimental tools of scientific psychology, such as the use of photographs of facial expressions and surveys to determine the universality of human emotions.	达尔文还率先开发了科学心理学的实验工具，比如用脸部表情照片和调查研究人类情感的普遍性。


Darwin had already made most of his major psychological discoveries even before he identified natural selection as the mechanism of evolution – but he waited 35 years before publishing his findings.	达尔文在认定自然选择才是进化机制之前便已做出了他的大部分心理学发现，但他等了35年才发表自己的发现。


This decision can be partly attributed to his meticulous approach to research, which entailed carefully collecting and studying evidence before presenting theories.	这一决定部分是因为他一丝不苟的研究精神，包括在发表理论之前细心收���和研究证据。


But Darwin also knew that, if he needed time to accept his own conclusions, the rest of the world was not ready to face such a materialist view of humanity.	但达尔文也知道，既然连他都需要时间接受自己的结论，世界其余部分自然难以面对如此唯物主义的人性观。


He shied away from the inevitable confrontation with critics – among whom were friends and colleagues.	他对难免的批评敬而远之——其中不乏来自朋友和同事者。


By the time Darwin died, his ideas had gained significant influence among psychologists and neuroscientists – even if they did not always fully realize it.	达尔文去世时，他的思想已经在心理学家和神经科学家中间形成了重大影响——尽管他有时并没有完全意识到这一点。


Sigmund Freud never met Darwin, but most of his mentors were enthusiastic Darwinists.	弗洛伊德从未见过达尔文，但他的导师大多是狂热的达尔文主义者。


Just as Isaac Newton revolutionized astronomy and physics by “standing on the shoulders” of his predecessors, Freud built on Darwin’s evolutionary insights in order to understand psychological symptoms, dreams, myths, art, anthropology, and much more.	正如牛顿以“站在巨人肩膀上”掀起了天文学和物理学革命，弗洛伊德在达尔文的革命性洞见的基础上理解了心理症侯、梦、传说、艺术、人类学和其他很多方面。


Freud’s biographer, Ernest Jones, was mistaken in calling Freud “the Darwin of the mind.”	弗洛伊德的传记作者琼斯（Ernest Jones）错误地称弗洛伊德为“心理界的达尔文”。


Darwin himself was the Darwin of the mind; Freud was his great popularizer.	达尔文本人才是心理界的达尔文； 弗洛伊德只是达尔文的伟大普及者。


Since Darwin, academic psychology has expanded significantly, enriched by the sophisticated tools of cognitive science, cybernetics, and brain imaging.	自达尔文以来，心理学的范围扩大了很多，引入了复杂的认知科学、控制论和大脑造影技术。


But most of these developments have been derivative elaborations of Darwin’s grand evolutionary model.	但这些发展只是达尔文革命性大模型的精细化衍生物。


The fundamentals of our conception of human nature can all be found in Darwin’s notebooks, written 175 years ago and before his thirtieth birthday.	我们关于人类本能的概念的基础全部可以在达尔文175年前不到30岁时写的笔记中找到。


The Hidden Danger of Big Data	大数据的隐患


CAMBRIDGE – In game theory, the “price of anarchy” describes how individuals acting in their own self-interest within a larger system tend to reduce that larger system’s efficiency.	坎布里奇——在博弈论中，无秩序主义的代价描述了在大规模体系中追求自身利益的个人如何倾向于降低整个系统的效率。


It is a ubiquitous phenomenon, one that almost all of us confront, in some form, on a regular basis.	这种现象普遍存在，几乎所有人都无法避免经常会以某种形式面对。


For example, if you are a city planner in charge of traffic management, there are two ways you can address traffic flows in your city.	举例来讲，如果你是一位负责交通管理的城市规划师，解决所在城市的交通问题可以采用两种方式。


Generally, a centralized, top-down approach – one that comprehends the entire system, identifies choke points, and makes changes to eliminate them – will be more efficient than simply letting individual drivers make their own choices on the road, with the assumption that these choices, in aggregate, will lead to an acceptable outcome.	一般人会选择一种自上而下的集中方法——即深入理解整套系统、找出瓶颈并通过修改加以消除——这种方法比让个体司机在路上做出选择更加有效，个体选择背后的假设是这些选择总体而言能够产生可以接受的结果。


The first approach reduces the cost of anarchy and makes better use of all available information.	第一种方式降低了无秩序主义的代价，并充分利用了一切可用的信息。


The world today is awash in data.	今天的世界到处都是数据。


In 2015, mankind produced as much information as was created in all previous years of human civilization.	仅2015年一年，人类就创造了与此前人类文明同样多的信息。


Every time we send a message, make a call, or complete a transaction, we leave digital traces.	每次我们发送邮件、拨打电话或完成交易，我们都会留下数字痕迹。


We are quickly approaching what Italian writer Italo Calvino presciently called the “memory of the world”: a full digital copy of our physical universe.	我们正在迅速接近意大利作家卡尔维诺明确预言的“全球记忆状态”，完整复制我们物质宇宙的全部信息。


As the Internet expands into new realms of physical space through the Internet of Things, the price of anarchy will become a crucial metric in our society, and the temptation to eliminate it with the power of big data analytics will grow stronger.	随着互联网拓展至物联网实体空间等全新领域，无秩序主义代价将成为社会关键指标，利用大数据分析消灭无秩序主义将越来越具有诱惑力。


Examples of this abound.	这样的例子比比皆是。


Consider the familiar act of buying a book online through Amazon.	比方说在亚马逊网上熟悉的买书经历。


Amazon has a mountain of information about all of its users – from their profiles to their search histories to the sentences they highlight in e-books – which it uses to predict what they might want to buy next.	亚马逊掌握从个人资料到搜索记录再到电子书中标注过的重点词句等全部用户的海量信息——并利用这些信息来预测用户下次要购买什么样的书籍。


As in all forms of centralized artificial intelligence, past patterns are used to forecast future ones.	就像一切形式的集中人工智能一样，人们用过去的模式来预测未来的模式。


Amazon can look at the last ten books you purchased and, with increasing accuracy, suggest what you might want to read next.	亚马逊可以调阅你此前购买的10本书，并且越来越准确的提出你可能希望阅读的下一本书的建议。


But here we should consider what is lost when we reduce the level of anarchy.	但这里我们应当思考降低无秩序状态是否会有所失去。


The most meaningful book you should read after those previous ten is not one that fits neatly into an established pattern, but rather one that surprises or challenges you to look at the world in a different way.	看完前10本书后你最该读的不是完美符合既定模式的书，而是出乎预料或促使你以不同视角看待世界的书籍。


Contrary to the traffic-flow scenario described above, optimized suggestions – which often amount to a self-fulfilling prophecy of your next purchase – might not be the best paradigm for online book browsing.	与上文提到交通流量的情况相反，优化建议——往往构成你买下一本书的自我实现的预言——或许并非你在线浏览书籍的最佳范例。


Big data can multiply our options while filtering out things we don’t want to see, but there is something to be said for discovering that 11th book through pure serendipity.	大数据可以过滤掉我们不想看的事物并同时成倍增加我们的选择，但纯粹通过意外发现第十一本书其实非常值得一提。


What is true of book buying is also true for many other systems that are being digitized, such as our cities and societies.	适用于买书的思考也同样适用于城市和社会等正处在数字化过程中的其他众多体系。


Centralized municipal systems now use algorithms to monitor urban infrastructure, from traffic lights and subway use, to waste disposal and energy delivery.	集中市政系统现在利用算法来监控红绿灯、地铁应用、废物处理和能源输送在内的城市基础设施。


Many mayors worldwide are fascinated by the idea of a central control room, such as Rio de Janeiro’s IBM-designed operations center, where city managers can respond to new information in real time.	世界很多城市的市长都疯狂地迷上了里约热内卢由IBM设计的运营中心中央控制室，城市管理者可以在那里对最新信息实时作出反应。


But with centralized algorithms coming to manage every facet of society, data-driven technocracy is threatening to overwhelm innovation and democracy.	但随着集中算法开始管理社会的方方面面，数据驱动的技术官僚正威胁压倒创新和民主体系。


This outcome should be avoided at all costs.	我们应当不惜一切代价避免这样的结局。


Decentralized decision-making is crucial for the enrichment of society.	分散决策对实现社会多元化必不可少。


Data-driven optimization, conversely, derives solutions from a predetermined paradigm, which, in its current form, often excludes the transformational or counterintuitive ideas that propel humanity forward.	相反，数据驱动优化从事先预定的模式中得出解决方案，而这些方案在现阶段往往排除了推动人类前进的变革性或违反直觉的理念。


A certain amount of randomness in our lives allows for new ideas or modes of thinking that would otherwise be missed.	生活中一定数量的随机性可以导致原本并不存在的新理念或思维模式的产生。


And, on a macro scale, it is necessary for life itself.	而且从宏观角度，它对生活本身同样具有必要性。


If nature had used predictive algorithms that prevented random mutation in the replication of DNA, our planet would probably still be at the stage of a very optimized single-cell organism.	如果自然界运用可以预测的算法防止DNA复制过程中的基因突变，那么我们这个星球可能仍然处在高度优化的单细胞生物阶段。


Decentralized decision-making can create synergies between human and machine intelligence through processes of natural and artificial co-evolution.	分散式决策能够通过自然和人工共同演化创造人类和机器智能之间的协同作用。


Distributed intelligence might sometimes reduce efficiency in the short term, but it will ultimately lead to a more creative, diverse, and resilient society.	分散性智能或许有时能够降低短期效率，但却最终能够导致更富创造力、更加多元、更有韧性的社会。


The price of anarchy is a price well worth paying if we want to preserve innovation through serendipity.	如果我们想要保留意外创新能力，付出无秩序的代价其实非常值得。


My Best Investment	我的最佳投资


JAKARTA – When I was boy, I dreamed of becoming a doctor.	雅加达—小时候我的梦想是成为一名医生。


I was born in Indonesia in the early 1950’s, a time when most families in my country lacked access to health care.	我出生于20世纪50年代初的印尼，当时的印尼大部分家庭无法获得医疗服务。


As a result, thousands of children died each year from preventable diseases such as measles, polio, and malaria.	因此，每年都有数千儿童因为麻疹、小儿麻痹症和疟疾等可预防的疾病而死亡。


But revolutionary breakthroughs in medicine were starting to turn the tide on these killers, and Indonesia’s doctors were celebrated as heroes.	但医学的革命性突破正在扭转这些致命疾病，而医生在印尼被视为英雄。


I wanted to be a hero, too, so I studied hard and enrolled in medical school.	我也想成为英雄，因此努力学习并进入了医学院。


My plans changed, however, when my father got ill.	但在我父亲病倒后，我改变了计划。


He was a hard-working man who made pedicabs in Surabaya, and I left university when he could no longer manage the family business.	他是个工作努力的人，在泗水市（Surabaya）做三轮车生意。 当他无法再管理家族企业时，我就从大学辍学了。


Ultimately, I became a successful entrepreneur and established a bank that is now one of Southeast Asia’s largest financial institutions.	最终我成��一名成功的企业家，建立了身为当今东南亚最大金融机构之一的银行。


Looking back, I have no regrets.	回头看，我并不后悔。


Indeed, I know that I have been incredibly blessed.	事实上，我知道我是个名符其实的幸运儿。


Millions of children in developing countries in Africa, Asia, and the Western Pacific are forced into extreme poverty when a parent gets sick or dies.	非洲、亚洲和西太平洋发展中国家的数百万儿童因为父亲或母亲的病倒或离世而被迫忍受极端贫困。


And millions more suffer from diseases that prevent them from leading a healthy and productive life.	还有数百万儿童因为疾病无法过上健康的、能为社会出力的生活。


That is why I have decided to invest $65 million in the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria.	这就是我决定投资6500万美元给全球抗击艾滋病、结核病和疟疾基金（Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria，以下简称全球基金）的原因。


When the Global Fund was created a decade ago, HIV incidence was rising around the world, and the drugs used to treat the virus were still prohibitively expensive.	全球基金成立于十年前，当时艾滋病正在全球蔓延，治疗艾滋病毒的药物极其昂贵。


Malaria was killing one million people each year, with mortality concentrated among pregnant women and children under the age of five.	疟疾每年要夺走数百万人的生命，其中绝大多数是孕妇和五岁以下儿童。


More than two million people were dying from tuberculosis, because they lacked access to low-cost, first-line treatment.	因肺结核而死的人数超过两百万，因为他们得不到廉价的优质治疗。


Since then, the Global Fund has played a key role in reversing the course of these epidemics.	自成立以来，全球基金在扭转这些传染病局面方面起到了关键作用。


Worldwide, HIV incidence has fallen by one-third, and the cost of HIV drugs has dropped more than 99%.	在全球层面，艾滋病感染率下降了三分之一，抗艾滋病药物成本下降了99%以上。


The number of African households that sleep under insecticide-treated bed nets has risen from 3% to 53%, and malaria deaths have fallen by one-third.	可以睡在杀虫蚊帐里的非洲家庭比例从3%增加到53%，疟疾致死人数也下降了三分之一。


And TB mortality has dropped more than 40%.	结核病致死人数下降了40%多。


Altogether, support provided by the Global Fund has saved more than nine million lives – a remarkable achievement.	总而言之，全球基金的支持挽救了九百多万人的生命——了不起的成就。


But the impact of the Global Fund extends far beyond lives saved.	但全球基金的影响力远不止于拯救生命。


When an HIV-positive mother receives antenatal treatment so that her child can be born HIV-free, we change the future.	当一位艾滋病毒阳性母亲得到了产前治疗，因而她的孩子可以不带着艾滋病出世时，我们就创造了历史。


When a child is spared cerebral malaria and the lifelong mental disabilities that it can cause, new possibilities are created.	当一名儿童免于脑型疟疾及其所可能造成的终身智力残疾时，我们就创造了新希望。


The world becomes a better place when we commit to giving our children a better start.	当我们致力于让孩子们获得更好的人生起点时，我们就在创造更好的世界。


The Global Fund also plays a critical role in strengthening health care in developing countries.	全球基金在强化发展中国家医疗方面也起到了关键作用。


Its resources have helped to train new generations of doctors, nurses, and technicians, while dramatically improving the overall quality of maternal and child health.	全球基金资源协助培训了一代又一代新医生、护士和技术专家，同时大大改善了产妇和儿童医疗的总体质量。


These investments are helping countries take direct ownership of the fight against infectious disease, ultimately reducing their dependence on foreign aid.	这些投资帮助各国在与传染病的斗争中掌握了自己的命运，最终减少了它们对外国援助的依赖。


For example, support from the Global Fund has helped Indonesia, which has the world’s fourth-highest TB burden, develop an efficient and effective national TB-control program.	比如，来自全球基金的支持帮助全世界结核病负担第四高的印尼发展出高能高效的全国结核病控制计划。


As a result, more than one million active cases have been successfully treated, while the incidence of the disease – which has cost Indonesia’s economy millions of dollars in lost productivity – has been driven down.	结果，一百多万例活跃病症得到了成功治疗，致死病例——造成印尼经济生产率损失的程度高达数百万美元——也有所减少。


With technical support like this, Indonesia’s government is creating an affordable and sustainable national health-care system that will be fully financed with domestic resources by 2019.	在此类技术支持的帮助下，印尼政府正在建立平价的可持续全国医疗体系，到2019年将实现完全通过国内渠道提供资金。


I believe that the Global Fund is one of the smartest investments that we can make – as many governments have understood from the outset.	我相信，全球基金是我们所能做出的最明智的投资之一——许多政府从一开始就明白了这一点。


The United States has been the Global Fund’s largest supporter, but many others have done their part.	美国一直是全球基金最大的支持者，此外还有许多国家做出了贡献。


For example, Australia has provided US$410 million to the Global Fund since 2002, an amount that has enabled nearly 200,000 people to receive lifesaving HIV treatment, 80,000 people to receive TB treatment, seven million people to be cured of malaria, and 14 million bed nets to be delivered to families in need.	比如，澳大利亚自2002年以来向全球基金提供了4. 1亿美元，这笔钱让近20万人获得了救命的艾滋病治疗，8万人获得了结核病治疗，七百万人获得了疟疾治疗，1400万张蚊帐送到了需要的家庭手中。


The Global Fund has brightened the futures of hundreds of thousands of children across Africa and Asia – a heroic achievement that should make donor countries’ citizens proud.	全球基金照亮了非洲和亚洲数十万儿童的未来——这一个了不起的成就，足以让出资国公民感到自豪。


I hope that others with the means to support its work will invest so wisely.	我希望其他有余力支持全球基金的国家娿做出明智投资。


Does Europe Need Britain?	欧洲需要英国吗？


NEW YORK – Many people in the United Kingdom believe that their country can do perfectly well outside the European Union.	纽约—许多英国人认为他们的祖国可以在身居欧盟之外的情况下表现完美。


Members of the UK Independence Party even think that Britain would do better, as do a considerable number of Conservative “Euro-skeptics.”	英国独立党（UK Independence Party）党员甚至认为英国可以做得更好，许多保守党中的“欧洲怀疑派”也作如是观。


They dream of Britain as a kind of Singapore of the West, a commercial powerhouse ruled from the City of London.	他们梦想着英国成为西方的新加坡，成为一个伦敦金融城指挥下的商业帝国。


That is why Prime Minister David Cameron felt obliged to offer the British people a referendum on a simple question: in or out.	这就是首相卡梅伦认为有义务为英国人民提供公投机会决定是否留在欧盟这一简单决策的原因。


Cameron does not personally want Britain to leave the EU, but he knows that some form of democratic consent is needed for future British governments to settle the matter.	卡梅伦个人并不希望英国离开欧盟，但他知道，未来英国政府要想解决这一问题，需要某种形式的民主赞成。


The year of the promised referendum, 2017, is comfortably far away.	承诺中的公投期在2017年，为时尚远。


Many things may change in the meantime.	许多东西会在这段时间中发生改变。


If the eurozone forges ahead, what countries outside the zone do may not matter much anymore.	如果欧元区有所进步，那么身处其外的国家怎么做将无关紧要。


Moreover, other Europeans may end up agreeing with Cameron that ever closer political union in Europe is undesirable – if they have a choice, that is, which is by no means certain.	此外，其他欧洲人也许会同意卡梅伦，更加紧密的欧洲政治联盟毫无必要，如果他们有选择的话——也就是说，如果这不是板上钉钉的话。


In the meantime, there is another question to be considered: how many Europeans want Britain to stay in the EU?	与此同时，还要考虑另外一个问题：有多少欧洲人希望英国留在欧盟？


The answer depends partly on nationality.	答案部分取决于国籍。


The smaller northern countries, such as the Netherlands, have traditionally wanted Britain to be in.	小型北欧国家，如荷兰，传统上希望英国留在欧盟。


Without Britain, they would be bossed around by France, and even more so by Germany.	没有英国，它们就得受法国甚至更多地受德国左右。


And yet, as memories of World War II fade, more and more people in the Netherlands and Scandinavia feel content to be under Germany’s powerful wings.	而随着二战记忆的淡去，越来越多的荷兰人和斯堪的纳维亚人对身处强大德国的卵翼之下不再感到不安。


But Germany itself would probably prefer to keep its British partner, rather than face the Mediterranean countries alone.	但德国本身可能更希望保有英国这一伙伴，以免单独面对地中海国家。


Culture still matters.	文化仍具有重要作用。


And the Germans have much in common with the British – more than they do with the Greeks, or even the Italians.	而德国人与英国人有着诸多共同点——比和希腊人甚至意大利人多得多。


France is a different matter.	法国则不同。


According to a recent poll, 54% of the French would prefer Britain to leave the EU.	最新民调表明，54%的法国人希望英国离开欧盟。


This, too, might have something to do with culture.	而这可能也与文化有关。


Britain never was very popular in France.	英国一直不太受法国人待见。


President Charles de Gaulle blocked British entry into the European Economic Community twice.	戴高乐曾两次将英国拒在欧洲经济共同体门外。


Like many French leaders, de Gaulle was deeply suspicious of the “Anglo-Saxons.”	与许多法国领导人一样，戴高乐对“盎格鲁-撒克逊”怀有深深的狐疑。


France, in his grandiose view, was the natural guardian of European values, which, according to him, were coextensive with French values.	在他的宏大观念中，法国天生是欧洲价值的捍卫者，欧洲价值在他看来和法国价值是共生关系。


In 1930, Winston Churchill said of his country: “We are with Europe, but not of it.”	1930年，丘吉尔如此评价他的祖国：“我们与欧洲站在一起，但我们不属于欧洲。


It is a sentiment still shared by many in Britain.	”至今仍有许多英国人持有这一观点。


De Gaulle agreed.	戴高乐也同意这一观点。


As he once put it, somewhat ironically, Britain would lose its identity as a member of a European union, and this would be a great pity.	他曾经不无讽刺地指出，加入欧盟会让英国迷失自己的身份，这是件大憾事。


But culture and nationality, or even Gaullist chauvinism, cannot explain everything.	但文化和国籍甚至戴高乐沙文主义无法解释一切。


There is an important political dimension to the pro- or anti-British sentiments in Europe.	欧洲的亲英和反英情绪有重要的政治根源。


The French who said they wanted Britain to leave the EU were largely on the left, while many who held the opposite view were further to the right.	表示希望英国离开欧盟的法国人大体是左翼，抱有相反观点的更加右倾。


It is not entirely clear why, though it is probably because the right includes neo-liberals, who share the British attitude to business and free trade.	原因不甚明了，尽管或许在于右翼包括了新自由派，这群人同意英国对商业和自由贸易的态度。


Like leftists everywhere, the French left favors a large degree of state control of the economy, together with technocratic rather than liberal solutions to social and economic problems.	与全世界的左翼一样，法国左翼也支持高程度的国家控制经济以及以技术官僚而不是自由主义解决方案对付社会和经济问题。


This type of thinking has played a vital role in the development of European institutions.	这样的意识形态在欧洲制度的发展中起着关键作用。


Jean Monnet, one of the godfathers of European unification, embodied this tendency – a born bureaucrat who distrusted politicians.	欧洲统一教父之一的让·莫内是这一倾向的写照——天生不相信政客的官僚。


Democratic politics is messy and divisive, and riddled with compromises.	民主政治混乱而分裂的，充斥着折中主义。


Monnet hated all that.	莫内对此深恶痛绝。


He was obsessed by the ideal of unity.	他醉心于统一的理想。


And he wanted things to get done, uncompromised by political wheeling and dealing.	他希望能成事，为了避免折中，在政治上无所不用其极。


Monnet and other European technocrats were not exactly opposed to democracy, but in their zeal to unify Europe’s diverse nation-states, they often appeared to ignore it.	莫内和其他欧洲技术官僚并不反对民主，但出于迫不及待地让欧洲多样化的民族国家统一起来的狂热，他们通常会表现出对民主的忽视。


The Eurocrats knew what was best for Europe’s citizens, and they knew what needed to be done.	欧洲派知道怎样对欧洲人民最有利，也知道应该做什么。


Too much public debate, or interference from citizens and their political representatives, would only slow things down.	太多的公共争论或赖在公民及其政治代表的干扰只能延缓成事时间。


Hence the typical EU language about “unstoppable trains” and “irreversible decisions”: citizens are not supposed to question the wisdom of great planners.	因此，典型的关于“不可停止的列车”和“不可逆转的决定”的欧盟论调是：公民不应质疑伟大规划者的智慧。


This emphasis on planning was one reason why the “European project” always appealed to the left – and not only in France.	这一对规划的强调是“欧洲工程”总是对左翼极具吸引力的原因之一，不仅仅法国是如此。


The technocratic belief in ideal models is inherently utopian.	对理想模式的技术官僚主义信仰，其内在性质是乌托邦。


Those on the left also shared a deep aversion to nationalism, born of two disastrous European wars.	左翼还深深地厌恶民族主义——两次灾难性的欧洲大战的根源。


The British, whose Churchillian nationalism helped them to prevail against Hitler’s attacks, never shared this aversion.	英国人正是在丘吉尔式的民族主义的领导下抵挡住了希特勒的进攻，他们从来不感冒对民族主义的厌恶。


And their deep pride in Britain’s liberal-democratic tradition made them suspicious of meddling Brussels bureaucrats.	他们也对英国的自由-民主传统感到深深的自豪，这使得他们不信任得过且过的欧洲官僚。


Some of this is doubtless the result of chauvinism, even xenophobia.	毫无疑问，这部分来自沙文主义甚至排外主义。


How can one possibly share political authority with foreigners?	谁能与外国人分享政治主权？


But it would be wrong simply to dismiss British doubts about the European drive toward greater unity.	但简单地否定英国人对欧洲人推动更统一的做法的怀疑是不正确的。


It is not just a nationalist reaction.	这不仅仅是一种民族主义反应。


Many Europeans now resent the expanding powers of EU bureaucracy.	如今，很多欧洲人讨厌欧盟官僚主义权力的扩张。


British resistance to grand European plans is the democratic grit in an enterprise that could become authoritarian, despite having the best intentions, and should serve as a necessary corrective to the utopianism of the technocrats.	英国对宏大欧洲计划的抵制可以称得上可能迈向官僚主义的实体（尽管初衷良好）的民主抑制剂，应该被视为纠正技术官僚乌托邦主义的必要措施。


Those who favor European unification should take criticisms of its political flaws very seriously.	支持欧洲统一者应该严肃对待针对其政治漏洞的批评。


Doing so is the only chance to ensure that a united Europe, whatever form it takes, will be democratic, as well as economically beneficial.	这样做是唯一确保统一的欧洲（不管以什么形式统一）民主和在经济上有益的办法。


That is why Europe needs Britain: not as an offshore center of banking and commerce, but as a difficult, questioning, stubbornly democratic partner.	这也是欧洲需要英国的原因：不是作为离岸银行和商业中心，而是难以对付的、充满狐疑的和顽固的民主伙伴。


David Cameron’s Culture War	戴维·卡梅伦的文化战争


NEW YORK – British Prime Minister David Cameron’s government has announced some of the most draconian public-sector cuts any developed country government has ever attempted. Indeed, his minister of education recently declared that funding for Britain’s universities would be slashed by as much as 40%.	发自纽约——英国首相戴维·卡梅伦的政府最近公布了各发达国家中最为严厉的公共部门预算削减计划，而他手下的教育大臣则宣布要将英国大学的资助经费削减40%之多。


But the most shocking aspect of the move is that arts and humanities departments will be targeted more aggressively than science and engineering, which are supposedly better for business.	但此举最令人震惊之处，莫过于对艺术和人文学科的削减力度将大于科学和工程学科——即便后者总能触摸到那些商界大财主的钱袋。


The war against the arts and humanities is nothing new – though this is the first time that the fight has migrated so directly to Britain.	这种向艺术和人文学科宣战的做法其实毫无新意——虽然在英国如此明目张胆地出现还是头一回。


Ronald Reagan pioneered a wave of policy and propaganda in the United States in the 1980’s that demonized the National Endowment for the Arts.	当年美国的罗纳德·里根政府就曾发起一连串的政策和宣传运动，试图将全国艺术基金会（National Endowment for the Arts）妖魔化。


Ever since, Republican governments in the US have slashed funding for ballet, poetry in schools, and sculpture, while demagogues like former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani have gained political traction by attacking controversial visual arts.	自那以后，历届共和党政府都恣意压低对各院校芭蕾，诗歌和雕塑等学科的资助，而前纽约市长鲁道夫·朱利安尼这样的政客则通过抨击有争议的视觉艺术家来谋取政治支持。


But the Cameron government’s approach is more sinister than the old right-wing tactic of taking aim at disciplines that can be derided as effete.	但相对于老右派将某些学科讽为“娘娘腔”的过时伎俩，卡梅隆政府的做法则更为险恶。


The British cuts reveal a push in developed countries – one that also started in the US – to target the kinds of education that lead to an open, vigorous civil society and a population that is hard to suppress.	英国的此次削减反映了发达国家的一种趋势（这趋势的始作俑者也是美国人！ ），那就是转而压制教育系统，使之无法滋养更公开，更有活力的市民社会，也无法培养出一群无法被奴役的人民。


In the former Soviet bloc, it was the poets, dramatists, cartoonists, and novelists whose works encoded forbidden themes of freedom, and who were targeted by the secret police.	从前在前苏联的铁幕下，是那些诗人，戏剧家，漫画家和小说家争相演绎着统治者讳莫如深的自由主题，并成为秘密警察下手的对象。


Today, they are bullied, silenced, and tortured in places like Iran, Syria, China, and Myanmar.	如今在伊朗、叙利亚，中国和缅甸，这些人也是被恐吓，被禁言和被折磨的一群。


Obviously, neither the US nor Britain has reached that point.	虽然美国和英国的政府都不会残暴至此。


But the attack on the arts and humanities is a giant step in the direction of a pliable, dumbed-down citizenry.	但对艺术和人文学科的攻击其实是至关重要的一步棋，目的就是生产出一个逆来顺受，沉默不语的市民群体。


Indeed, the war against the arts and humanities in the US coincided with the emergence of an increasingly ignorant and passive population and a government that serves at the pleasure of corporate interests.	事实上，伴随着美国那些对艺术和人文学科宣战的行为而产生的就是一大批日渐愚昧无知，消极被动的民众，以及一个为大企业利益服务的政府。


Academics in the arts and humanities are notoriously bad at defending why their work has value.	众所周知，那些艺术和人文学院一般都不太善于阐述自身所创造的价值。


But, apart from strengthening civil society and the habits of freedom, these disciplines yield bottom-line benefits as well.	但除了增强市民社会的力量并培养追求自由的生活习惯之外，这些学科还有许多好处。


Who needs to read closely, seek evidence, and make a reasoned argument – skills that the study of poetry, the novel, history, and philosophy provide?	是谁需要深入阅读，搜寻理据，并提出合理的观点？ 须知这都是诗歌，小说，历史和哲学研究所培养的技能。


Who needs to study languages and comparative literature?	又是谁需要学习外语和比较文学？


For Cameron, evidently, the answer is: no one of importance.	但在卡梅隆心目中，答案显然是——那些无关紧要的人。


Let us imagine, then, a Britain of tomorrow that includes parliamentarians who don’t know what led to World War I, or what the Enlightenment was; journalists who can’t write compellingly; attorneys and judges who can’t figure out their cases; and spies and diplomats who don’t speak the languages or understand the cultures in which they work.	那么请试想，未来的英国议会竟然有议员不知道一战的起因是什么，或者何为启蒙运动； 记者的报道文笔粗糙，逻辑混乱；


That Britain will look more like the US of today.	而间谍和外交官们竟然对所在国的语言文化一无所知。 到了那时候，英国就跟今天的美国无异了。


In a heartbeat, Cameron (who himself studied philosophy, politics, and economics at Oxford, having previously attended that bastion of classical education, Eton) has signed away Britain’s global influence.	而就在一念之间，卡梅隆这个曾就学于古典教育大本营伊顿公学，而后又在牛津大学学习哲学，政治和经济的人就将英国的未来影响力一笔勾销。


Having lost its empire, Britain retains outsized global influence simply because of the power of its civilization and the education absorbed by its decision-makers.	但其实英国之所以能在帝国衰落之后依然保持着国际影响力，就是依靠公民的力量以及政策制定者所受到的教育。


That allure is why foreign students from emerging countries around the world flock to Britain, putting millions of pounds annually into the coffers of its universities.	这种魅力就是那些新兴国家留学生对英国大学趋之若鹜，每年为各大院校贡献大笔学费的原因。


By slashing the funding for the institutions which created that civilization, Cameron has guaranteed that tomorrow’s Britain will be a nation not of world-class politicians, writers, and cultural innovators, but of wonky technocrats raised on bad TV, with little influence beyond their tiny island.	是这些院校创造了这种文明，而通过削减资助，卡梅伦将使未来的英国沦为一个缺乏世界级政治家，作家和文化创新者的国度，只剩下一些在恶俗电视剧中长大的二流科技主义者，其影响力也将最终龟缩在那几个小岛之上。


If what has been cut is not restored, Cameron and his ideological heirs will create a nation of quiescent citizens who, like their US counterparts, are better suited to a society whose official policies are more directly aligned to the will of corporate interests.	如果不立刻恢复那些预算的话，卡梅伦和他的意识形态继承人（跟他们的美国同伙一样）将创造无数消极被动的乌合之众，而这些人也是一个政府政策更放肆地与大企业利益同流合污的社会所需要的。


While the fiscal savings may appear attractive to Cameron in the short term, for the British people – and for the rest of the world, which benefits from Britain’s liveliness, civilization, and tradition of democracy – the cost is far too high.	虽然短期的财政盈余对于卡梅伦来说非常吸引，但对那些从英国的活力，文明和民主传统中受益的英国人民——以及全世界人民来说——这个代价实在是太大了


The UK’s Immigration Distraction	喧宾夺主的英国移民问题


LONDON – Do British voters hate foreigners, or merely freeloaders?	伦敦—英国选民是讨厌外国人，还是只是讨厌不速之客？


That is essentially the question British Prime Minister David Cameron posed in his long-awaited speech on immigration from other European Union countries, delivered last month at the headquarters of the construction-equipment manufacturer JCB.	上个月，英国首相卡梅伦在建筑设备生产商JCB总部所做的人们期待已久的关于来自其他欧盟国家移民问题的演讲中实质提出了这一问题。


Cameron’s gamble is that voters do not mind Poles or Lithuanians operating JCB’s machines on construction sites all over the United Kingdom.	卡梅伦的赌注是选民不在意波兰人或是立陶宛人在英国各地的工地上操作JCB的各种机械。


What they mind is people immigrating to the UK to take advantage of its welfare benefits.	他们在意的是移民英国的人享受英国的社会福利。


The speech was Cameron’s answer to the recent defections of two of his Conservative Party MPs to the anti-EU, anti-immigration UK Independence Party, which he fears could steal Conservative votes in the general election next May.	这次演讲是卡梅伦对两名他所在的保守党议员倒戈投向反欧盟、反移民的英国独立党（UK Independence Party）的回应。 他担心这可能偷走保守党在明年5月大选中的选票。


But, as clever as the speech was, it is unlikely to succeed in beating back UKIP – and it leaves the British debate about EU membership focused on the wrong issue.	但是，尽管这次演讲相当聪明，却无法成功地回击英国独立党——也导致英国关于欧盟成员地位的争论搞错了关注点。


To be sure, Cameron’s speech was a more statesmanlike gamble than many – even within his own government – had anticipated.	平心而论，卡梅伦的演讲是一次比许多人——甚至包括他自己的政府内的人——所预想的更有政治家风度的赌注。


Some of his remarks in recent weeks had suggested that he might reject outright the free movement of EU citizens – one of the union’s founding principles – and dare other European governments to oppose him.	他在最近几周以来的一些评论表明他也许反对欧盟公民完全自由的移动，并不惜与其他欧盟政府对抗——自由移动是欧盟的基本原则之一。


Instead, Cameron emphasized the UK’s enduring desire to be open to the world while restricting EU migrants’ welfare rights.	相反，卡梅伦强调英国一直愿意向世界开放，同时限制欧盟移民的福利权。


Specifically, he proposed requiring EU migrants to spend four years working in the UK before becoming eligible for the top-up welfare payments that low-paid British workers receive, and to end benefit payments for migrant workers’ children living in their home country.	具体而言，他提出要求欧盟移民在英国工作四年才能获得资格追缴英国低薪工人所获得的福利金，并结束向移民工人居住在母国的孩子支付福利金。


Though such moves could be challenged in the European Court of Justice on grounds of discrimination, any cases are unlikely to arise until well after the upcoming election.	尽管这些措施可能在欧洲法院（European Court of Justice）以歧视为由提起上诉，但在即将到来选举举行之前，不可能会有任何起诉。


The political danger for the Conservatives is that they are misjudging public sentiment.	保守党所面临的政治风险是他们误判了公共情绪。


Perhaps voters have just as much of a problem with foreigners as they do with freeloaders.	也许选民与外国人之间的问题和他们与不速之客之间的问题一样严重。


If that is the case, reducing immigrants’ welfare benefits will be inadequate.	果真如此的话，削减移民福利是不够的。


This is not to say that Cameron should target foreigners.	这并不是说卡梅伦应该针对外国人。


On the contrary, he must change the conversation to reassure voters that their economic future is bright.	相反，他必须改变口风，向选民保证经济未来是光明的。


As it stands, the British, like their counterparts elsewhere in Europe, feel overtaxed for spotty public services that are constantly being cut, and are angry that their incomes have been falling for the last five years.	目前，与其他欧洲人民一行，英国人大有一种税收负担过重而不断缩水的公共服务质量过低的感觉，对于过去五年来收入一直下滑也十分愤怒。


As a result, many resent welfare recipients and fear competition for jobs – a sentiment that is fueling the rise of populist, anti-EU, and anti-immigrant parties across Europe.	结果，许多人开始怨恨福利享受者、害怕饭碗之争——这一情绪正在全欧洲助长民粹主义、反欧盟和反移民政党。


The key difference in the UK is that UKIP is gaining ground with voters despite rapid economic growth (more than 3% annually, the highest rate in the EU).	英国的关键不同之处在于英国独立党的崛起是在经济迅速增长（每年超过3%，为欧盟最高水平）的背景下发生的。


Between now and May, Cameron must persuade voters that the British economy will continue to perform strongly, fueling an increase in real incomes.	从现在到5月，卡梅伦必须让选民相信，英国经济会继续表现强劲，助长真实收入的增加。


A change of subject would also be in the national interest.	转换话题也有利于国家利益。


By banging on about immigration, Cameron risks making it central to the question of whether Britain should remain in the EU.	强调移民问题的卡梅伦有可能让英国是否应该留在欧盟成为问题的核心。


He is, after all, the politician who has promised to hold a referendum in 2017, if he is still Prime Minister, on whether to stay or leave, following a period variously described as a “renegotiation” of the UK’s membership and “reform” of the EU’s structure.	毕竟，是他承诺如果2017年仍在位就将举行是否留在欧盟的公投，在此期间则是被频繁描述为英国成员地位“再谈判”和欧盟结构“改革”的时期。


He is now making it seem as if immigration will be the key test of that effort.	如今，他似乎正在把移民问题打造为这一努力方向的关键考验。


That is a big problem. For starters, there is little or nothing that other EU governments can concede on the free movement of people, which is enshrined in the founding document of European integration, the 1957 Treaty of Rome.	这是一个大问题，首先，在人民自由移动的问题上，其他欧盟政府几乎不可能让步，这是写入欧洲一体化奠基文件——1957年罗马条约（Treaty of Rome）的基本原则。


In any case, Britain receives more migrants from outside the EU than from other EU countries.	无论如何，英���来自欧盟之外的移民比来自其他欧盟国家的移民更多。


And migrants from Poland, Italy, or France are much more likely than those from Somalia, Syria, or India to return home eventually.	而来自波兰、意大利或法国的移民比来自索马里、叙利亚或印度的移民更有可能最终会回国。


If the British public truly opposes immigration, they are probably referring to non-EU immigration, not the arrival of, say, Italian university graduates.	如果英国公众真的反对移民，他们或许会提到非欧盟移民，而不是（比如）意大利大学生的到来。


In fact, there is a far more important issue that should serve as the main focus of the British debate on the EU: the UK’s future status inside the EU as a non-member of the eurozone.	事实上，有一个重要得多的问题应该成为英国关于欧盟的争论的主要焦点：英国作为非欧元区国家在欧盟内部的未来地位。


This is what Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne were focusing on until UKIP surged in the opinion polls.	卡梅伦及其财政大臣乔治·奥斯本在英国独立党在民调中崛起之前一直关注着这一问题。


It is time to renew that focus.	现在，他们应该重新把注意力集中在这个问题上。


Cameron’s government must recognize that there is only one good reason to wonder whether the UK might be better off leaving the EU: the risk that remaining outside of the eurozone would leave Britain at a serious disadvantage in EU decision-making, even about rules affecting the single market.	卡梅伦政府必须认识到，质疑英国是否离开欧盟才会变得更好的好理由只有一个：不加入欧元区可能导致英国在欧盟决策中处于重大劣势，即使是关于影响单一市场的规则。


It sounds a bit technical, and it is.	这听起来有些技术性，确实如此。


But sorting out the relationship between EU members within and outside the eurozone can be done in a fairly short time without new treaties; indeed, progress has already been made on this front.	但厘清加入欧元区和不加入欧元区的欧盟成员地位的关系可以再相当短的时间内解决并且不必修改条约； 事实上，在这方面已经有了进展。


Cameron and Osborne would then be able to boast that they have procured for the British public the best of both worlds: much faster economic growth than the stagnant eurozone members, together with all of the advantages of EU membership, including access to the single market and enhanced global influence.	卡梅伦和奥斯本接着将可以夸耀他们为英国公众争取到两方面的最佳结果：比陷入停滞的欧元区成员国高得多的经济增长，以及所有欧盟成员地位带来的好处，包括进入单一市场和增强全球影响力。


That narrative would be far more powerful than a few tweaks to welfare rights for immigrants.	这个故事远比在移民福利权问题上纠缠不清更有力。


David Cameron and the EU’s Waterloo	戴维·卡梅伦和欧盟的滑铁卢


PRINCETON – Two hundred years ago this month, at the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon Bonaparte’s defeat at the hands of an allied army, led by the Duke of Wellington, reshaped Europe’s future.	普林斯顿——两百年前的同一个月，拿破仑·波拿巴在滑铁卢战役中败于威灵顿公爵所率盟军之手重新塑造了欧洲的未来。


Britain may now be poised to do so once again.	英国或许现在准备再次书写历史。


The United Kingdom, whose new majority Conservative government has pledged to hold a referendum on European Union membership by the end of 2017, perhaps even next year, is not the outlier that it is often portrayed as being.	英国新任的保守党多数政府承诺到2017年底、甚至就在明年就欧盟成员国资格举行公投其实并不像外界所描绘的那样孤立。


Indeed, it is at the vanguard of the EU’s institutional atrophy.	事实上，这是欧盟体制萎缩的开始。


Even if it does retain its EU membership, the UK will continue to move steadily away from Europe.	即使决定继续留在欧盟，英国也将继续稳步将重心转向欧盟之外。


With more attractive commercial opportunities elsewhere, most European countries will follow suit.	因为其他地方的商业机会更具吸引力，多数欧洲国家将步英国的后尘。


For the EU, meeting the UK’s demands – to restrict benefits for migrant workers, limit financial regulation that could hurt the City of London, and disavow the goal of “ever closer union” – would require a fundamental transformation, including utterly unfeasible changes to the treaties that underpin European institutions.	对欧盟而言，满足英国的要求——限制外来工利益、限制可能有损伦敦城的金融监管及否认“前所未有的紧密联盟”的目标需要进行根本性的转变，包括根本没有任何可能的对支撑欧盟体制的条约进行修改。


The discussion has thus turned to the possibility of providing the UK with a special status or allowing it to opt out of more EU provisions.	讨论内容也因此转向能否赋予英国特殊地位抑或容许其退出更多的欧盟条约。


But, given intensifying doubts about the benefits of integration, even that solution would risk unraveling the EU.	不过鉴于对一体化好处的质疑声日益高涨，就连这样的解决方法也有可能拆散欧盟。


By emphasizing that Europe no longer offers an economic dividend, the UK’s move away from the EU will spur ever louder calls for change elsewhere.	由于凸显欧洲无法再提供经济红利，英国远离欧盟之举将激起其他地方要求改革的呼声。


Simply put, talk of “Brexit” has exposed Europe’s economic and political fault lines – and there is no going back.	简单地讲，“英国退出欧盟论”已经暴露出欧洲的经济和政治裂痕——回到旧日的美好时光已经不可能。


Robert Peston, in his 2005 biography of then-Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, described Brown’s “pragmatic view that the EU was a good thing only insofar as it delivered practical benefits of peace and prosperity to Britain.”	在其为时任英国财政大臣戈登·布朗撰写的2005年传记中，罗伯特·佩斯顿描述了布朗的实用主义观点，即认为“欧盟只有为英国带来和平繁荣的实际利益才是好东西。


While the British have been particularly open about the nationalist nature of their support for European integration, other EU members have been no less mindful of their domestic interests.	”虽然英国人毫不隐讳他们对欧洲一体化支持的民族主义本质，但其他欧盟成员对各自的国内利益也一直没少关注。


In the wake of World War II, European countries’ national interests were aligned.	第二次世界大战后，欧洲各国的国家利益趋于一致。


Nonetheless, efforts to establish political unity through a common army failed in 1954, highlighting that economic common ground was the key to European integration.	但1954年通过组建共同军队实现政治统一的努力失败凸显出经济共同利益是欧洲一体化的关键领域。


And, indeed, the 1957 Treaty of Rome, which opened national borders within the new European Economic Community, enabled the rapid proliferation of intra-European trade, thereby contributing to a shared economic recovery.	并且事实上，在新生欧洲经济共同体内部开放国界的1957年罗马条约促使欧洲内部贸易迅速扩大，从而促成了经济的共同复苏。


The material gains of these commercial relationships fostered empathy among Europeans, fueling increased support for – and trust in – shared institutions.	上述商业关系所带来的物质利益推动了欧洲的文化转移，从而为共同制度赢得了更多的信任和支持。


This process began later for the UK, which joined the community in 1973; but it followed a similar trajectory, with British citizens responding to economic gains by supporting increased integration.	英国的一体化进程开始较晚，1973年才加入经济共同体； 但此后也经历了相似的轨迹，英国民众面对经济利益开始对推动一体化表示支持。


Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, by advocating the 1986 Single European Act, sought to maximize those gains.	首相撒切尔夫人大力倡导1986年单一欧洲法，力求收获最大的经济收益。


In the spirit of the Treaty of Rome, she ensured that the act focused on developing an open and competitive common market, in which all members participated on equal terms.	按照罗马条约精神，她确保该法案重点开发一个开放和竞争的共同市场，所有成员都按照平等条件进行参与。


By contrast, her German counterpart, Chancellor Helmut Kohl, often regarded as one of that generation’s preeminent European champions, offered only lukewarm support for the Single European Act.	相反，撒切尔的德国同僚，被外界普遍视为那一代杰出欧洲精英人物的赫尔穆特·科尔总理并没有对单一欧洲法给予热情的支持。


He preferred to help steer Europe toward monetary and political union, just when its economy had begun to fall behind the rest of the world.	他更愿意推动欧洲向货币和政治联盟的方向发展，彼时欧洲经济刚刚开始落后于世界其他地区。


The result was the 1991 Maastricht Treaty – the point when European integration went into overdrive.	结果签署了1991年的马斯特里赫特条约——也就是欧洲一体化进入超速阶段的标志。


But the Treaty’s architects were so busy playing internal power games that they failed to recognize that monetary union could not stem Europe’s decline, especially as the United States was experiencing rapid productivity growth and Asia’s economic rise had begun.	但条约设计师们忙于内部的权力游戏，并没有意识到货币联盟无法阻止欧洲衰落，尤其在美国生产率快速增长和亚洲经济开始崛起之时。


With Europe’s post-war recovery long complete, the logic of integration had to be rethought.	欧洲的战后恢复任务早已完成，需要重新思考一体化的逻辑。


Unfortunately, that did not happen.	遗憾的是，这项工作并没有开始。


As a result, intra-European trade and support for European institutions, having soared in the previous two decades, began to decline practically before the ink on the Maastricht Treaty was dry.	结果是马斯特里赫特条约几乎墨迹未干，过去二十年来一直飙升的欧洲内部贸易和对欧盟机构的支持就开始走下坡路。


The eurozone’s protracted crisis, which began in 2008, has exacerbated this trend, with member countries still struggling to restore economic and financial stability – and likely to continue to lag behind the rest of the world in terms of GDP growth.	2008年开始的欧元区长期危机加剧了这一趋势，各成员国至今仍在努力恢复经济和金融稳定——很可能在国内生产总值增长方面继续落后于世界其他地区。


No institutional framework can survive unless it serves the material interests of its constituency.	任何制度框架都无法生存，除非它符合所在选区的物质利益。


In the nineteenth century, when the Tunisian craft guilds failed to adapt to industrialization, they became irrelevant, and the amins, or guild masters, were left as figureheads in shell institutions.	19世纪，适应不了工业化变革的突尼斯手工业行会变得无关紧要，行会会长们（amins）被留在空壳机构中有名无实。


Today, European institutions could face the same fate.	今天，欧洲机构可能面临同样的命运。


Unencumbered by the euro, and benefiting from long-standing commercial relationships beyond Europe, Britain is in a particularly strong position to push back against EU institutions.	长期受益于欧洲以外商业关系、且不受欧元拖累的英国尤其有能力反对欧盟体制。 这或者有些自私自利，但却并不令人意外；


This may be self-serving, but it should not be a surprise; in fact, with businesses throughout Europe seeking markets elsewhere, Britain’s approach may well herald similar developments elsewhere.	事实上，因为全欧洲企业都在其他地方寻找市场，英国的做法很可能带动其他地方取得类似的进步。


European integration in the shadow of WWII was a wise and magnificent achievement.	二战阴影下的欧洲一体化是明智而辉煌的成就。


But, with that historic task now complete, European institutions need a new rationale.	但这项历史任务已经完成，现在的欧洲机构需要新的基本原理。


And with the EU, unlike other federations, lacking a common political destiny, that rationale must center on material benefits.	因为欧盟不像其他联盟那样具备共同的政治命运，上述原则必须围绕物质利益。


The EU must return to the fundamental driver of its success, pursuing a renewed single-market agenda that reflects the rationale of the Treaty of Rome.	欧盟必须回归其成功的基本动力，以反映罗马条约精神的全新单一市场议程为目的。


Unfortunately, Europe is so divided nowadays that the ability to achieve such an outcome is not promising, with new initiatives along these lines facing “increasing political resistance.”	不幸的是，现在的欧洲如此四分五裂，以此为核心的全新举措面临“越来越大的政治阻力”，以至于外界并不看好欧洲实现这一目标的能力。


If Europeans merely invoke the lofty mantra of “an ever closer union,” their institutions will atrophy.	如果欧洲人仅仅借用“前所未有的紧密联盟”的崇高口头禅，他们的体制就会丧失生命力。


Without a new unifying objective – one based on shared material gains, not on fear of Vladimir Putin’s resurgent Russia – the European amins will soon be out of business.	如果没有新的统一目标——这一目标必须以共同的物质利益，而非担心普京的俄罗斯重新崛起为基础——欧洲的行业协会很快就会倒闭。


Beyond Inflation Targets	超越通胀目标


EDINBURGH – Over the last three decades or so, central bankers and academics have become increasingly confident that inflation targeting is the key to preserving macroeconomic stability.	爱丁堡—在过去三十年中，央行和学术界对于通胀目标是捍卫宏观经济稳定的关键这一思想越来越自信。


But this is virtually impossible to prove, and the 2008 financial crisis suggested to many that monetary policy should focus on more than the prices of goods and services.	但这一结论实际上根本不可能被证实，而2008年金融危机让很多人认为货币政策的目标不应该仅限于商品和服务的价格。


So how should a revised mandate for central banks be structured to maintain their focus on low inflation while allowing monetary policy to address other issues when appropriate?	那么，应该如何修改央行权限范围让它在关注低通胀的同时合理地使用货币政策解决其他问题？


The contribution that inflation targeting makes to macroeconomic stability is difficult to discern for a simple reason: it is impossible to know what would happen if a country’s central bank pursued the opposite course.	通胀目标对宏观经济稳定的作用很难确定，原因很简单：你不可能知道如果央行追求相反的目标国家会怎么样。


Unable to compare outcomes directly, researchers have employed a variety of strategies to identify the impact of inflation targeting, and have typically found it to be substantial (though the effect becomes small or even zero when countries’ starting points are taken into account).	无法直接比较结果，研究者只好用各种策略来识别通胀目标的影响，通常的发现是影响很大（尽管在考虑国家的起点的情况下，其影响会变小甚至降为零）。


For example, a case study of the United Kingdom for 1997-2007 – a period of full inflation targets and policy independence for the Bank of England (BoE) – indicates considerable improvement from a poor starting point.	比如，对1997—2007年英国情况的研究显示出始于一个很低的起点的重大改进。 英格兰银行在此期间采取了完全通胀目标并拥有政策独立性。


The focus on price stability was accompanied by relatively low inflation (compared to the past, as well as to other major economies), strong growth, and little output volatility.	专注于价格稳定伴随着相对较低的通胀（与过去或其他主要经济体相比）、强劲的增长和极小的产出波动。


However, over this period the UK also experienced sustained exchange-rate misalignment, which the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee was unwilling or unable to address within its existing mandate.	但是，在此期间，英国也经历了持续的汇率失调——英格兰货币政策委员会（MPC）不愿或无法在其现有全县范围内解决这一问题。


The MPC also failed to respond to any of the three bouts of rapid growth in house prices that preceded the financial crisis, arguing that they were structural in nature –caused by the decline in inflation and interest rates since the 1980’s – so a monetary response was not appropriate.	MPC也没能对金融危机前的三次房价快速上涨做出反应，并辩解说房价的上涨是结构性的，原因在于20世纪80年代以来的通胀和利率下降，因此用货币政策予以反应是不合适的。


In the run-up to the crisis, the US Federal Reserve Board (an informal inflation targeter) was even more committed than the MPC to this orthodox view – so committed, in fact, that it barely allocated any time or resources to analyzing house-price fluctuations.	在危机前，美联储（它并不是正式的通胀目标派）甚至比MPC更严格地遵循正统——严格到它几乎从未花时间和精力分析房价的波动。


So, while inflation-targeting central banks worked hard to nail down inflation expectations in goods and services, they made no effort to influence asset-price expectations.	因此，尽管通胀目标型央行努力地打消商品和服务的通胀预期，但它们并没有尝试影响资产价格预期。


Indeed, the “Greenspan put” (former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s monetary-policy approach) eliminated the downside risk by setting a floor under asset prices; but it set no ceiling on the upside.	事实上，“格林斯潘看跌期权”（前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘的货币政策方针）通过设定资产价格下限打消了下跌风险；


If major banks had had a “lean against the wind” strategy in reserve, that would have influenced expectations and at least partly stabilized asset prices, possibly mitigating – or even averting – the most damaging effects of the financial crisis.	但它并未设定上限。 如果大银行采取“迎风而上”的策略储备，则可以影响预期并至少局部地稳定资产价格，有望减轻——甚至消除——金融危机最大的破坏效应。


The notion of integrating asset-price concerns into inflation targeting remains a source of significant controversy, with opponents citing the Tinbergen Principle: if policymakers have one instrument, the interest rate, they can pursue only one objective, price stability.	将资产价格目标的概念纳入通胀目标仍受到重大争议，反对者的论据是丁伯根原则：如果决策者有一种工具（利率），那么他们只能追求一个目标（价格稳定）。


Attempts to pursue multiple objectives, the logic goes, would confuse financial markets and private-sector agents.	该原则指出，试图追求多重目标会让金融市场和私人部门行为人无所适从。


But central banks have pursued multiple objectives simultaneously, without bringing about bad outcomes or destroying their own credibility.	但央行确实需要同时追求多重目标，并且还不能产生坏结果或有损于其自身信誉。


Likewise, since 2008, many central banks – under pressure from governments – have been reacting specifically to other developments in the real economy (particularly unemployment), rather than maintaining their single-minded focus on long-term price stability.	类似地，自2008年以来，许多央行——在政府的压力下——开始对实体经济的具体发展情况做出反应（特别是失业），而不再坚持长期价格稳定的单一目标。


This is particularly obvious in the UK, where the government, desperate to see an economic recovery before the 2015 elections, has been pushing the BoE to introduce credit subsidies and, more recently, forward guidance.	英国尤其如此。 英国政府急切地希望在2015年大选前实现经济复苏，要求英格兰银行引入信用补贴以及最近提出的前瞻性指引。


As a result, the BoE’s decisions have been attuned to the short-run trade-off between growth and inflation – meaning that it has been making decisions about goals, not just instruments.	结果，英格兰银行的决策不得不适应短期的增长和通胀权衡——这意味着根据目标而不是工具做出决策。


What central banks need now is a revised mandate that upholds price stability as the primary, long-term objective, while allowing policymakers to pursue other objectives when appropriate.	如今，中央银行需要改变权限范围，不再把价格稳定作为首要的长期目标，而允许决策者在合适的时候追求其他目标。


Specifically, the central bank should be able to move slowly on price stability if it regards the real economy as unacceptably weak, or if an asset-price misalignment threatens financial stability and cannot be defused quickly by the new macro-prudential instruments.	具体而言，央行应该能够缓慢采取价格稳定措施，如果它认为实体经济实在太脆弱或资产价格失调已经威胁到金融稳定并且无法通过新的宏观审慎工具快速解决的话。


Under the current arrangements for the BoE, if inflation moves more than one percentage point away from its target (in either direction), the bank’s governor is obliged to write an open letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining the deviation and providing a plan to eliminate it, including a projected timeline.	在先行安排下，对英格兰银行来说，如果通胀偏离其目标一个百分点以上（不管是低于还是高于），其行长都必须向财政大臣写公开信解释偏离的原因并提出消除偏离的计划，其中包括预计时间表。


A revised remit for the BoE – or, in some form, for other inflation-targeting central banks – could take this requirement further, specifying a primary and long-term target for inflation from which policymakers can deviate if doing so is deemed necessary.	修改后的英格兰银行权限——或其他以通胀为目标的央行——可以将这一要求更进一步，具体规定一个主要的长期通胀目标，决策者在其认为有必要时可以偏离这一目标。


In such cases, the central bank’s governor should be required to write an open letter explaining the bank’s decision, including how long it expects to give priority to the non-inflation objective and how it foresees returning to normal operations.	如此，央行行长则应该被要求写公开信解释央行的决定，包括准备在多长时间内将非通胀目标作为首要目标、预计何时可以回归常规操作。


Such an arrangement would allow the central bank to take a wider view of its responsibilities in a context of transparency and accountability, but in a way that both preserves its anti-inflationary credibility and prevents politically motivated or otherwise inappropriate policy decisions.	这样的安排能让央行在透明和问责的环境下放宽职责视野，但既保留了其反通胀信誉，也防止了出于政治动机的或不合理的政策决定。


A Long-Term Plan for Syria’s Refugees	针对叙利亚难民的长期计划


BEIRUT – After spending just three days with refugees and aid workers in Lebanon and Turkey, the apocalyptic nature of the Syria crisis is all too apparent: more than 100,000 deaths, nine million people displaced, two million children out of school, diseases like polio resurfacing, and neighboring countries struggling to cope with waves of refugees.	贝鲁特—在与身处黎巴嫩和土耳其的难民和援助工作者共处短短三天后，叙利亚危机的末日情景已经充分展现在我的眼前：10万多人死亡，九百万人流离失所，两百万儿童被赶出校园，脊髓灰质炎等疾病卷土重来，邻国则被难民潮搞得焦头烂额。


Countless heartrending stories of lost husbands, wives, siblings, and children, to say nothing of homes and livelihoods destroyed, provide yet more troubling evidence of how Syria’s civil war has become a regional conflict (as the bombing of Iran’s Beirut embassy suggests).	数不清的失去配偶、兄弟姐妹和孩子的悲惨故事（更不用说失去家园和生计了）提供了更多的令人不安的证据，表明叙利亚内战已经演变为地区冲突（伊朗驻贝鲁特大使馆爆炸案就是明证）。


Anti-Assad rebels are now fighting each other, as jihadists make gains.	反巴沙尔叛军正在相互搏斗，圣战组织正在壮大。


Experts no longer talk of the conflict lasting months; they speak in terms of years, or even decades.	专家们不再用“月”来讨论冲突，而改用“年”甚至“十年”。


Despite heroic efforts by aid agencies like the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to save lives and bring hope to the region, the terrible truth is that it is not possible to protect civilians, especially from snipers and stray missiles, never mind hunger and homelessness.	尽管国际救援会（IRC）等援助机构英勇地拯救了无数生命，给地区带来了希望，但可怕的事实是保护公民已成为不可能的任务，特别是来自狙击手和导弹误炸的伤害，更不用说饥饿和无家可归了。


Warring factions do not even recognize the notion of unaffiliated noncombatants, and flout international norms of war.	战斗派系甚至不承认中立非战斗人员这一概念，对国际战争规范嗤之以鼻。


In addition to the use of chemical weapons, the United Nations estimates that 2.5 million civilians lack food, water, and medicines, because some towns and villages are too hard to reach, with an estimated 250,000 people completely cut off from outside help.	除了使用化学武器外，联合国估计有250万平民缺少食品、水和药品，因为一些村镇实在难以进入，有约25万人完全得不到外部援助。


Syria’s neighbors have been overwhelmed by calls for help.	叙利亚的邻国几乎被求救声淹没。


Lebanon is trying to accommodate nearly one million refugees.	黎巴嫩正在试图接收近一百万难民。


In Turkey, an estimated 200,000 refugees are in official camps, but at least twice that number are struggling alone in towns and cities.	在土耳其，约20万难民生活在官方难民营中，但至少还有两倍于此的人数在城镇和城市中挣扎过活。


Support from around the world is fitful: only 60% of aid pledges have come in, with only a fraction actually reaching the intended beneficiaries. Although some agencies have been able to get aid supplies across national borders, they cannot get through the frontlines of the fighting to reach those caught in the crossfire.	世界各国的援助时断时续：到目前为止只有60%的援助承诺得到了兑现，其中又只有一小部分实际到达了预想的受助者手中，尽管一些机构有能力跨境提供援助，但它们无法突破战斗前线接触到困于战火的人民。


International diplomatic efforts must therefore focus on achieving temporary ceasefires to bring in the most urgently needed help, such as polio vaccines for children.	因此，国际外交努力必须专注于形成临时性停火以输送需求最紧迫的援助，如儿童脊髓灰质炎疫苗。


Aid should not be a mere side show to the seemingly endless peace talks taking place in Geneva; as United Nations emergency relief coordinator Valerie Amos insisted, it must be central to those negotiations.	正如联合国紧急纾困协调员阿莫斯（Valerie Amos）所坚持的，援助不应该只是不知何时才能结束的日内瓦和平谈判的开胃菜； 而应该成为谈判的核心。


But, with the conflict and its impact expected to drag on for years, agencies must also plan for the longer term. This includes building capacity in neighboring states, as the World Bank is doing in Jordan and Lebanon, to provide services for refugees.	但是，由于冲突及其影响预计将持续多年，各机构必须做好长期打算，包括在邻国构建为难民提供服务的能力，如世界银行在约旦和黎巴嫩所做的那样。


This can be done in creative ways.	这可以通过创新性办法实现。


The IRC, for example, is involved in three areas:	比如，IRC就参与了三个方面的努力：


· Innovative education: Mainstream school systems in neighboring countries cannot cope with the refugee influx; and, with more than 80% of refugees living in urban areas rather than in camps, there is little point to focusing on camp-based models of teaching.	· 教育创新：邻国的主流教育体系无法处理难民涌入的情况； 且考虑到80%的难民生活在城市地区而不是难民营，因此着重于基于难民营的教育模式是无济于事的。


Instead, a more informal system, supported by networks of local and refugee teachers – a model that was successfully pioneered in Congo and Afghanistan – can provide accredited learning.	相反，应该采取本地和难民教师网络支持的非正式��育体系——这套体系曾在刚果和阿富汗得到过成功运用——来提供获得承认的教育经历。


· Exploiting technology: Syrians are generally literate, numerate, and technologically sophisticated.	· 利用技术：叙利亚人大多识字、会计算，有技术胜任力。


A pioneering social-networking platform called Tawasul (“Connection”), established by the IRC and the non-profit news organization Internews, has been set up to help refugees help one another through the exchange of information and advice.	IRC和非盈利新闻组织Internews建立了一个被称为Tawasul（“联系”）的创新社交网络平台以帮助难民通过信息和建议交流互相帮助。


· Doing business: Syrian refugees are accustomed to working in a market economy, so programs that allow them to trade, and therefore support themselves, should be encouraged.	· 做生意：叙利亚难民习惯于市场经济，因此让他们能够通过贸易讨生活的方案应该得到鼓励。


The IRC is investing in “cash for work” programs that will help refugees (and their hosts) build businesses.	IRC正在投资“工作换现金”计划帮助难民（以及东道主）成立企业。


If we are to lessen the horrors of the Syrian conflict and its consequences, we must think not only about emergency action to save lives, but also about meeting longer-term needs that make those lives worth living.	如果我们想减轻叙利亚冲突及其后果的恐怖性，就不仅必须考虑拯救生命的紧急行动，还必须考虑满足让活下来的人活得有意义的长期需求。


Bringing medical aid into conflict zones, setting up water and sanitation facilities, and protecting victims during harsh winters are crucial to saving lives; but we must also think about how to safeguard the education and livelihoods of those who survive.	向冲突区提供医疗援助、建立水源和卫生站设施、保护难民度过严冬是拯救生命的关键； 但我们还必须考虑如何保证活下来的人的教育和生存问题。


Saving General Petraeus	拯救将军彼得雷乌斯


PRINCETON – The United States has moved from the high of a presidential election to the low of a political sex scandal in one short week.	普林斯顿—短短一周，美国便从美国大选的高峰来到了政治性丑闻的低估。


For many Americans, the election demonstrated what is best about the country, only to be followed by the sadly familiar process of knocking heroes off their pedestals.	对许多美国人来说，大选展示了这个国家最好的一面，但随之而来的是人们已耳熟能详的英雄被赶下神坛的桥段。


For many non-Americans, the election brought the welcome and reassuring victory of Barack Obama, whereas the resignation of David Petraeus as Director of the CIA was an unnecessary, self-inflicted wound.	对许多非美国人来说，大选带来了广受欢迎、使人安心的奥巴马的胜利，而彼得雷乌斯辞去中央情报局局长一职纯属毫无必要的自残。


In fact, both the election and Petraeus’s resignation are pieces of a larger whole: an America that lives up to its promises.	事实上，大选和彼得雷乌斯的辞职都是更大图景的一部分：承诺立国的美国。


The election reminded many Americans that the US is a country committed to and capable of progress – of moving forward toward an ideal vision.	大选让许多美国人觉得，美国有能力进步，也在进步——朝着理想状态进步。


Obama was supported by a coalition of minorities: African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans, Muslim-Americans, gay and lesbian Americans, and an under-represented majority – women – all of whom perceive continuing inequalities and injustices that need to be remedied.	奥巴马受到了众多少数族裔的支持：非洲裔美国人、拉丁裔、亚裔美国人、穆斯林美国人、同性恋美国人； 也受到了代表不足的多数群体——无不感受着不平等和不公正在继续、急切地需要解决的女性的支持。


But the winners were all who believe that America is, in fact, dedicated to “equal justice under law,” the words emblazoned on the pediment of the Supreme Court.	但是，赢家是全体认为美国事实上致力于“法律面前人人平等”——铭刻最高法院三角墙之上的文字——的人。


In the election of an African-American president less than a half-century after the end of official racial segregation in much of the country, these Americans see the triumph of the values enshrined in the US Constitution over America’s legacy of social, political, and economic prejudice.	美国大部分地区种族隔离告别种族隔离还不到半个世纪，非洲裔美国人便已当选美国总统，这部分美国人看到的是美国宪法所包含的凌驾于社会、政治和经济传统偏见之上的价值。


They see a president committed to the advancement of all Americans, regardless of race, gender, creed, ethnic origin, sexual orientation, handicap, or economic status.	他们看到的是一个代表所有美国人——无论种族、性别、信仰、民族、性取向、是否残疾和经济地位——的进步的总统。


They also see a country that truly does reflect the world, attracting immigrants from every nation and giving them an equal chance to succeed as Americans.	他们还看到了一个真正反映世界、吸引着世界各国移民并给予他们作为美国人的平等成功机会的美国。


And they see a president with a vision of a country that can rebuild its infrastructure, reform its health care, strengthen its educational system, and boost its economic prosperity in ways that require all citizens to contribute – and that will, in turn, allow all citizens to flourish.	他们认为这个国家能够以要求所有公民都做出贡献——反过来也让所有公民共享其繁荣——的方法重建基础设施、改革医保系统、增强教育系统、提振经济繁荣。 他们对奥巴马的看法也是如此。


But how is this vision connected to the resignation of Petraeus, a storied and much-decorated general before he took over the CIA, following the revelation that he had an extra-marital affair?	但这一看法如何与彼得雷乌斯的辞职联系在一起？ 彼得雷乌斯在掌管中央情报局之前战功卓著、形象完美，到头来居然爆出了婚外情的丑闻。


Judging by my Twitter feed, most foreign observers simply cannot understand why a man serving his country in one of its highest and most sensitive positions should step down over something that happened in his private life – something that directly affects only those involved and their families.	从我Twitter上的内容看，大部分外国观察者并不能理解一个身居其祖国最高级、最敏感职位之人应该因为其私生活而下台——这种事情的直接影响仅仅局限于他的家庭。


American culture, I explained, judges extra-marital affairs very harshly, so a senior official caught in such a position could easily be subject to blackmail – something that a CIA director, of all people, must avoid.	我解释说，美国文化将婚外情看得非常严重，因此如此位置的高官很容易被勒索——而这���作为中央情报局局长所必须杜绝的。


My foreign interlocutors replied that, with the affair now exposed, the blackmail threat has been removed, so Petraeus should stay in office.	我的外国评论者回复说，现在婚外情已经曝光了，勒索威胁也就随之烟消云散了，因此彼得雷乌斯应该继续任职。


Many Americans agree.	许多美国人都同意这一点。


Indeed, Obama himself was reportedly reluctant to accept Petraeus’s resignation.	。 事实上，据称奥巴马本人就不愿接受彼得雷乌斯的辞呈。


From my perspective, however, Petraeus did the right thing: resigning was the only course open to him if he is to have any chance of repairing his reputation.	但是，从我的角度看，彼得雷乌斯做出了正确的选择：辞职是他唯一可走的路，如果他想弥补自己的名声的话。


Petraeus, after all, had been General Petraeus, a four-star general who had spent his life in the military, commanding the US missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.	彼得雷乌斯毕竟是彼得雷乌斯将军、戎马一生的四星上将、美军伊拉克和阿富汗司令官。


He graduated from – and later taught at – the US Military Academy at West Point, an institution guided by the motto “Duty, Honor, Country.”	他毕业于——后来执教于——以“责任、荣誉、国家”为校训的西点军校。


In our cynical age, many might scoff at such an old-fashioned motto (or, indeed, at the power of any motto or slogan).	在我们叛逆的年龄段，很多人会对这一陈腐的校训嗤之以鼻（事实上，也许是对任何校训或口号都会如此）。


West Point cadets do not.	但西点军校的学生不会。


As General Douglas MacArthur told them in 1962, those three words “build your basic character.	正如麦克阿瑟将军1962年所告诉他们的，这三个词“形成了你们的基本性格。


They mold you for your future roles as the custodians of the nation’s defense.	它们塑造你们作为美国未来守护神的角色。


They make you strong enough to know when you are weak, and brave enough to face yourself when you are afraid.”	它们让你们在虚弱时知道自己足够强大，让你们在害怕时足够勇敢面对自己。


They teach you, he continued, “to master yourself before you seek to master others; to have a heart that is clean, a goal that is high.”	”它们教会你们，麦克阿瑟继续说，“在掌握别人之前先掌握你自己； 保持一颗纯净的心，保持一个崇高的目标。


MacArthur’s rhetoric is stirring; some would say overblown.	麦克阿瑟的演讲是激动人心的；


The ideals he expressed are lofty; he himself fell short of them on more than one occasion.	有人认为有过度煽情之嫌。 他所表达的理想是崇高的；


But, by and large, the men and women of the US military believe in these ideals and do their best to live up to them, just as US citizens generally believe in their Constitution’s lofty words and seek to correct their national shortcomings.	他本人不止一次没有做到。 但是，总的来说，美国军队中的男男女女都相信这个理想，并竭力以此作为生活准则，一如美国公民总的来说相信宪法的崇高字句并试图纠正祖国的短处。


Petraeus violated his own personal code of honor and duty toward his wife and family – and thus, in his eyes, toward his country, particularly to the men and women whom he was entrusted to lead at the CIA.	彼得雷乌斯违反了他自己的个人对妻子和家庭的荣誉和责任信条——在他眼里，他也因此违反了他自己对祖国的荣誉和责任信条，特别是对他所领导的中央情报局的同事们来说。


When his affair came to light, he faced up to his failure, took responsibility for the consequences, and did what he believed that duty, honor, and country required.	当他的婚外情曝光时，他面对的是自己的失败，承担此时的后果，做出了在他看来责任、荣誉和国家信条要求他做出的反应。


The hubbub of tawdry disclosures and investigations addressing every aspect of a widening scandal may well last for weeks.	对发酵的丑闻无孔不入的哗众取宠的披露和调查所引起的骚动可能还将持续好几星期。


In the meantime, Americans can only hope that their national elected representatives show an equal willingness to face up to and take responsibility for their failures, pettiness, and insistence on putting partisanship ahead of the country’s manifest and urgent needs.	与此同时，美国人只能希望他们所选出的代表能够表现出相同的意愿，勇敢地面对他们的失败、丑闻以及坚持将党性至于国家显而易见的迫切需要之前的行为，并承担责任。


These officials must now carry out their most fundamental duty: to govern.	这些官员现在必须承担他们最基本的责任：治国。


They must be willing to negotiate in good faith and compromise in order to enact laws, solve problems, avert crises, and build faith in the future.	他们必须愿意开诚布公地谈话，相互妥协以制定法律、解决问题、防止危机并打造对未来的信念。


Let us hope that their oaths to defend and uphold the Constitution are more than just words.	我们希望他们捍卫和支持宪法的誓言不仅仅是誓言。


Every Breath You Take	你的每次呼吸


BANGKOK – Fearsome stories about migrating Indonesian haze, post-Diwali smog in northern India, and the return of the “airpocalypse” in China tell of Asia’s recent air-pollution woes.	曼谷——印尼移动雾霾、北印度后屠妖节迷雾和中国“空气污染”回潮等可怕的报道反应了亚洲近年来的空气污染灾难。


Not confined to Asia, outdoor particulate pollution claims over 3.1 million lives worldwide every year, five times the number of deaths from malaria and slightly less than double the current AIDS death rate.	不仅是在亚洲，全球室外颗粒物污染每年夺去310多万人的生命，达到疟疾致死人数的5倍，只略低于目前艾滋病致死率的两倍。


Airborne pollutants, especially fine particles (smaller than 2.5 microns, or roughly the width of a strand of a spider web), enter deep into the lungs and from there enter the blood stream, causing cardiopulmonary disease, cancer, and possibly premature births.	空气中的污染物，尤其是细微颗粒（小于2. 5微米，也就是大约像蜘蛛丝那么宽）能够深入人的肺部，再从那里进入血液， 进而引发心肺病、癌症，还有可能导致早产。


Just how significant are these health risks?	这究竟会造成多大的健康风险？


Unfortunately, discussion of the subject is often opaque.	遗憾的是，我们对这个话题的探讨往往并不明确。


Poor air quality is often described as reaching a certain “AQI” (Air Quality Index) level, or as being a certain degree above a particular World Health Organization standard.	我们说空气质量差往往是指它在一定程度上高于世卫组织标准，或者达到了特定的“空气质量指标”（AQI）。


But the general public might better understand the situation if it were framed in terms that compare easily with more familiar hazards.	但与熟悉的危险比较更有利于加深公众对问题的理解程度。


For instance, the immediate risks of breathing polluted air could be described in terms of the “micromort,” the unit representing a one-in-a-million chance of dying.	比方说，可以用“微死亡率”（micromort）为单位来描述呼吸受污染空气的直接风险，它所代表的是死亡概率的百万分之一。


An average person on an average day faces a risk of roughly one micromort from non-natural causes.	一般人平均每天面临约百万分之一的非自然死亡风险。


This provides a useful starting point for comparison: the risk of scuba diving, for example, is around five micromorts per dive; sky diving is ten micromorts per jump; and giving birth in the United Kingdom is around 120 micromorts.	这就为对比设定了有益的基础：举例来讲，潜水每次的死亡风险约为5； 而跳伞每跳则为10；


By comparison, breathing in Beijing on its most polluted days equals approximately 15 micromorts.	在英国生孩子大约是120。 相比之下，在污染最严重的情况下呼吸北京的空气大致为15左右。


But the more troubling risks from air pollution arise from chronic exposure.	但空气污染最令人不安的风险来自于长期接触。


This can be expressed in terms of “microlives” – a unit developed by Cambridge statistician David Spiegelhalter to describe a person’s cumulative risks over a lifetime.	我们可以用“微生存率”来对此进行量化——剑桥统计学家大卫·斯皮格尔霍尔特以此作为某人终其一生的累计风险单位。


One microlife represents 30 minutes of an average young adult’s expected lifespan.	1“微生存率”相当于普通青年成人30分钟的预期寿命。


The average person uses up about 48 microlives per day; but lifestyle affects how fast one expends one’s microlives.	普通人每天消耗约48个“微生存率”； 但生活方式会影响人消耗“微生存率”的速度。


Settling in smoggy Beijing will use up roughly an additional 2-3 microlives per day, implying a reduction in life expectancy of almost three years.	定居在大雾弥漫的北京每天将多消耗2-3个“微生存率”，相当于缩短近三年的寿命。


Living in Hong Kong or Santiago, Chile, will cost one additional microlife per day, whereas daily life in New Delhi, one of the world’s most polluted cities, costs an estimated 4-5 microlives.	定居香港或者圣地亚哥、智利将每天将多消耗1“微生存率”，而生活在世界污染最严重的城市之一新德里每天则多消耗4-5个“微生存率”。


By comparison, smoking four cigarettes a day will cost the smoker around two microlives, roughly equivalent to living in Beijing.	相比之下，每天吸4支烟会消耗吸烟者约2个“微生存率”，这大致相当于在北京生活。


But the aging clock can also be slowed down – 20 minutes of daily exercise will extend life expectancy by two microlives per day (unless done in the smog), and drinking two or three cups of coffee daily saves an additional microlife per day.	但老化的步伐也可以得以延缓——每天锻炼20分钟能延长2“微生存率”的寿命（除非在浓雾中锻炼），而每天喝2到3杯咖啡还能多节省1 “微生存率”。


Furthermore, recent research suggests that some, if not all, of the microlives lost from living in Beijing could be recovered by moving to, say, Vancouver, with its pristine air.	此外，近来的研究结果表明在北京损失的某些 “微生存率”搬到空气洁净的温哥华就可以恢复。


Besides skipping town, one can mitigate at least some of the risks by limiting one’s exposure on particularly hazardous days.	除了逃离城市，还可以通过限制特别危险日的空气吸入来控制某些风险因素。


If citizens had access to current air-quality data, they could choose to take protective measures, such as minimizing physical exertion, staying indoors (ideally in filtered air), and wearing a mask (an N95-rated mask, at a minimum, not a surgical mask).	如果能得到现时的空气质量数据，民众就可以选择采取防护措施，如减少体力消耗、待在室内（最好对空气进行过滤）和佩戴口罩（至少佩戴N95级口罩，而不是手术口罩）。


Unfortunately, air-quality information, especially for the most pernicious fine particles, is not easily available in many highly polluted cities.	遗憾的是，空气质量信息，特别是最有害的细微颗粒物信息在很多重度污染城市并不容易找到。


But such monitoring is not beyond the reach of developing countries, because the necessary equipment is not prohibitively expensive.	但这样的监测并没有超出发展中国家的能力，因为所需的设备并不十分昂贵。


Ideally, air-quality data should be collected, translated into easily understandable language, and widely disseminated in real-time via social media so that city dwellers can take appropriate action (particularly important for vulnerable individuals).	理想情况下，人们应当搜集空气质量数据、翻译成易于理解的语言并通过社会媒体实时广泛播出。 这样城市居民就可以采取恰当的对策（这对于体弱者尤其重要）。


In this regard, China has made big strides, providing a good example for other developing countries to follow.	中国在这方面已经取得了很大的进步，树立了很好的榜样供其他发展中国家仿效。


Of course, governments should not stop at monitoring; they should take active measures to reduce air pollution.	当然，政府不应仅仅满足于监控； 而应积极采取措施减少空气污染。


Against the pressure of Asia’s rapid urbanization and industrial development, this will take sustained effort, involving complex policy decisions and painful economic trade-offs.	在亚洲快速城市化和工业发展的压力下，实现目标需要付出长期的努力，政府必须做出复杂的决策，制定痛苦的经济折衷方案。


Making air-quality information available to all – essentially democratizing the data – allows people to engage better in the debate on what sacrifices are acceptable in the fight against air pollution; it also provides basic input for desperately needed research into the health effects of these new highly polluted environments.	为所有人提供空气质量信息（从根本上实现数据民主化）能使民众更好地参与应付出何种代价应对空气污染的讨论； 同时也为高度污染的新环境对健康有何影响这种迫切需要的研究提供了最基本的数据。


These far-reaching health effects, in addition to the immediate benefit of empowering citizens to protect themselves, should spur even the most financially strapped governments to start a transparent air-quality monitoring campaign today.	上述深远的健康影响，再加上公民自我保护的现实好处，应该能够刺激哪怕是财政上最捉襟见肘的政府立即实施透明的空气质量监测。


A New Progressive Political Economy	新进步政治经济学


LONDON – In an article in Foreign Affairs entitled “The Future of History,” Francis Fukuyama pointed out that, despite widespread anger at Wall Street bailouts, there has been no great upsurge of support for left-wing political parties.	伦敦—在《外交事务》上一篇名为《历史的未来》（“The Future of History”）的文章中，弗朗西斯·福山（Francis Fukuyama）指出，尽管援助华尔街带来了广泛的愤怒，但对左翼政党的支持并没有爆发。


Fukuyama attributed this – rightly, I believe – to a failure of ideas.	福山把这归因于援助的失败，我赞同他的看法。


The 2008 financial crash revealed major flaws in the neoliberal view of capitalism, and an objective view of the last 35 years shows that the neoliberal model has not performed well relative to the previous 30 years in terms of economic growth, financial stability, and social justice.	2008年金融危机暴露了新自由主义资本主义观点的严重漏洞，对过去35年的可观审视证明，与此前30年相比，新自由主义模式在经济增长、金融稳定和社会公正方面的表现都没有胜出。


But a credible progressive alternative has yet to take shape.	但可信的进步的替代方案尚未形成。


What should be the main outlines of such an alternative?	这样一种替代方案的主要特征是什么？


First, a progressive political economy must be based on a firm belief in capitalism – that is, on an economic system in which most of the assets are privately owned, and markets largely guide production and distribute income.	首先，进步的政治经济必须基于对资本主义的坚定信念——即基于大部分资产为私有、主要由市场指导生产和分配收入的经济体系。


But it must also incorporate three defining progressive beliefs: the crucial role of institutions; the need for state involvement in their design in order to resolve conflicting interests and provide public goods; and social justice, defined as fairness, as an important measure of a country’s economic performance.	但该方案也必须纳入三大决定性进步信念：制度的关键作用、国家参与制度设计以解决利益冲突和提供公共品、以及作为国家经济表现重要标准的社会公正（以公平性为定义）。


It was a great mistake of neoclassical economists not to see that capitalism is a socioeconomic system, and that institutions are an essential part of it.	古典经济学家没有把资本主义视为社会经济体系，也没有把制度视为其中的关键部分，这是一个严重的错误。


The recent financial crisis was made far worse by profound institutional failures, such as the high level of leverage that banks were permitted to have.	最近的金融危机由于重大的制度失灵而变得更加糟糕，比如允许银行采用高杠杆率。


Empirical research has shown that four sets of institutions have a major impact on the performance of firms and, therefore, on a country’s economic growth.	实证研究表明，四套制度对企业、因此也对一国的经济增长的表现具有重要影响。


These include the institutions underpinning its financial and labor markets, its corporate-governance arrangements, its education and training system, and its national system of innovation (the network of public and private institutions that initiate and diffuse new technologies).	它们是作为金融和劳动力市场基础的制度、公司治理安排、教育和培训体系以及创新的国家体系（提出和扩散新技术的公共和私人制度网络）。


The second defining belief of progressive thinking is that institutions do not evolve spontaneously, as neoliberals believe.	进步思想的第二大决定性信念是制度并不像新自由主义者认为的那样是自发演进的。


The state must be involved in their design and reform.	国家必须参与到它们的设计和改革中。


In the case of institutions underpinning labor and financial markets, as well as corporate governance, the state must mediate conflicting interests.	对作为劳动力和金融市场以及公司治理基础的制度而言，国家必须协调利益冲突。


Likewise, a country’s education and training system and its national system of innovation are largely public goods, which have to be provided by the state.	类似地，一国的教育和培训体系及其创新的国家体系可以说都是公共品，必须由国家提供。


It should be clear that the role for the state that I have been describing is an enabling or market-supporting one. It is not the command-and-control role promoted by traditional socialists or the minimalist role beloved by neoliberals.	应该澄清的是，我所说的国家角色应该是扶助性的或支持市场的，而不是传统社会主义者所追求的指令-控制型角色或新自由主义者所钟爱的越小越好的角色。


The third defining belief of progressive thinking rejects the neoliberal view that a country’s economic performance should be assessed solely in terms of GDP growth and freedom.	进步思想的第三大关键信念与一国经济表现应该完全用GDP增长和自由来衡量的新自由主义观点相反。


If one is concerned with a society’s wellbeing, it is not possible to argue that a rich country in which the top 1% hold most of the wealth is performing better than a slightly less wealthy country in which prosperity is more widely shared.	如若你关心社会的福祉，就不可能认为最顶层1%掌握大部分财富的富国比财富略有不及但繁荣被更广泛地共享的国家表现更好。


Moreover, fairness is a better measure of social justice than equality.	此外，公平是比社会公正更好的平等性指标。


This is because it is difficult to devise practical and effective policies to achieve equality in a market economy.	这是因为很难制定实用有效的政策在市场经济条件下追求平等。


Moreover, there is a real tradeoff between equality and economic growth, and egalitarianism is not a popular policy even for many low-income people.	此外，在平等性和经济增长之间存在现实权衡问题，平均主义即使对许多低收入的人来说也不是值得支持的政策。


In my experience, trade unions are much more interested in wage differentials than in a simple policy of equal pay for all.	根据我的经验，工会对于工资差异的兴趣比对一刀切的平等政策更大。


These are the core principles that I believe a new progressive political economy should embrace.	我认为，这些便是新进步政治经济学应该具有的核心原则。


I also believe that Western countries that do not adopt this framework, and instead cling to a neoliberal political economy, will find it increasingly difficult to innovate and grow.	我还认为，不采用这一框架而是坚持新自由主义政治经济学的西方国家将发现越来越难以创新和增长。


In the new global economy, which is awash with cheap labor, Western economies will not be able to compete in a “race to the bottom,” with firms seeking ever-cheaper labor, land, and capital, and governments seeking to attract them by deregulating and shrinking social benefits.	在新的全球经济中，廉价劳动力泛滥，西方经济体无法在这场企业追求低而又低的劳动力、土地和资本、而政府通过去监管和收缩社会福利吸引它们的“向下竞争”中胜出。


The only way Western economies will be able to compete and improve their standard of living is by seeing themselves as being involved in a race to the top.	西方经济体得以在竞争中立足并改善生活条件的唯一出路是认为自己处在一场向上竞争的竞赛中。


That is, firms must improve their value added through innovation in existing industries, and by developing the capability to compete in new and more sophisticated industries, where value added is generally higher.	也就是说，企业必须通过在已有行���中的创新和开发在更新更先进的行业（增加值也会更高）的竞争力来改善它们的增加值。


Companies will be able to do this only if governments abandon the belief that they have no role to play in the economy.	只有在政府抛弃它们对经济没有责任的信念的情况下，公司才能做到这一点。


In fact, the state has a key role to play in providing the conditions that enable dynamic companies to innovate and grow.	事实上，国家在为激活公司创造力和增长力条件方面具有关键作用。


A Wrong Turn for Human Rights	人权发展的错误方向


NEW YORK – The world has plunged into a period of brutality, with impunity for the perpetrators of violence.	纽约—世界已经进入残酷时代，施害者不会因为暴力而受到惩罚。


Syria is suffering untold civilian casualties as a divided United Nations Security Council sits on the sidelines. Gaza was pummeled to dust yet again with the world watching on. Iraq is in flames, with no end in sight.	意见不一的联合国安理会束手旁观导致叙利亚无数平民伤亡。 加沙之痛令人绝望，而可以停止它的痛苦的人却无动于衷。


Atrocities are mounting in South Sudan and the Central African Republic, which are also being swept by an epidemic of sexual violence.	伊拉克陷入了一片火海，并且没有停歇迹象。 南苏丹和中非共和国暴行愈演愈烈，更有无处不在的性暴力肆虐。


Even Europe is not immune: a civilian aircraft was shot down over a conflict zone in eastern Ukraine, and officials were prevented from investigating.	甚至欧洲也未能幸免：一架民航客机在东乌克兰冲突地区被击落，而官员对实践调查横加阻梗。


Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and more than a decade after the establishment of the International Criminal Court (ICC), shockingly little is being done to stop these abuses, and the prospects of the victims ever getting justice, let alone bringing the perpetrators to account, seem ever more remote.	柏林墙已经倒塌二十五年，国际刑事法庭（International Criminal Court）也已经成立十多年，但我们为阻止暴行所做的努力少得可怜，而受害者获得正义也是遥遥无期，更不用说将施害者送上审判席了。


For many years, the world seemed to be progressing toward greater recognition of human rights and demands for justice.	多年来，世界似乎不断地在向承认更多人权和争议需求的方向进步。


As democracies emerged in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in the 1980s and 1990s, these issues assumed increasing importance.	随着20世纪八九十年代民主在拉美和中东欧的兴起，这些问题变得日益重要。


Although wars, conflicts, and atrocities continued, the global powers tried, and occasionally managed – albeit chaotically and usually late – to stop the killing.	尽管战争、冲突和暴行依然存在，但世界各大国总是试图——有时也能成功，尽管局势混乱并且往往姗姗来迟——阻止杀戮。


Moreover, the international community created frameworks for justice to deal with the consequences of violence, a move that was scarcely imaginable during the Cold War.	此外，国际社会建立了司法框架处置暴力的后果，这在冷战期间是难以想象的。


New UN-backed international and hybrid tribunals were created to bring to account perpetrators of atrocities in the Balkans, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Cambodia.	新的联合国国际混合法庭成立了，并且起诉了巴尔干半岛、卢旺达、塞拉利昂和柬埔寨的暴行。


The ICC, with jurisdiction over atrocities committed in 122 member states, was established to try cases referred to it by state parties or the Security Council (even though three permanent members – the United States, Russia, and China – have not ratified or acceded to the Rome Statute, which places parties under ICC jurisdiction).	国际刑事法庭拥有对122个成员国暴行的司法管辖权，可根据国家方面或安理会的要求立案（尽管三个常任理事国（美国、俄罗斯和中国）尚未批准或加入罗马规约（Rome Statute，加入则意味着进入了国际刑事法庭的司法管辖范围））。


In addition, many governments, with UN support, created mechanisms for transitional justice at home, including more than 40 “truth commissions” (such as in Argentina, El Salvador, East Timor, Morocco, and South Africa), reparation programs, and prosecutions.	此外，许多政府在联合国的支持下，在国内建立了过渡司法制度，包括四十多个“真相委员会”（truth commissions，如阿根廷、萨尔瓦多、东帝汶、摩洛哥和南非）、赔偿程序以及检查起诉。


None of these efforts has been perfect, but they have given victims a voice and recognized their suffering, while signaling to culprits that their crimes will not be forgotten.	所有这些努力都不完美，但它们给了受害者发声和承认他们的遭遇的机会，同时也向犯罪者表明，他们的罪行是不会被忘记的。


Such measures have also deeply affected, and in some cases transformed, public discourse for the better.	这些措施也深深地影响甚至改变了积极的公共披露。


Today, however, the international community appears to be backsliding on its human-rights commitments.	但是，如今国际社会似乎在人权承诺方面出现了倒退。


The world’s emerging powers lack any sense of urgency in addressing abuses, preferring the pursuit of narrower, short-term interests to investing in long-term peace and justice.	世界新兴强国缺乏制止暴力的紧迫感，总是组回球狭隘的短期利益而不进行长期和平与正义投资。


Without robust support from the international community, the institutions of justice are coming under pressure – and losing their momentum.	没有国际社会的强劲支持，司法机构面临着压力——也在失去动力。 一些国家抨击国际刑事法庭；


Several countries have attacked the ICC; African Union members want heads of state to be immune from prosecution, thus undermining a fundamental principle of the court.	非洲联盟成员国希望国家元首更获得起诉豁免，这破坏了国际刑事法庭的基本原则。


To be sure, many states undergoing political transition are doggedly pursuing some form of justice.	平心而论，许多正在经历政治转型的国家顽强地追求着某种形式的正义。


For example, justice and human rights are at the heart of the historic peace talks in Colombia.	比如，正义和人权是柬埔寨历史性和平谈判的核心。


Despite the collapse of the Arab Spring, Tunisia is pressing ahead with reforms, including the creation of a Truth and Dignity Commission.	尽管阿拉伯之春以失败告终，但突尼斯正在改革中突飞猛进，包括建立了真相和尊严委员会（Truth and Dignity Commission）


But these societies may find it difficult to address adequately their troubled pasts without the support of international institutions.	但如果没有国际机构的帮助，这些国家或许难以与难堪的过去充分决裂。


Elsewhere, the fight for human rights might become virtually impossible.	在其他地区，人权斗争可能根本无从谈起。


Indeed, it will be hard enough to defend the human-rights gains made since the end of the Cold War, much less to expand them.	事实上，冷战结束以来，捍卫人权进展都已经十分困难，更不用说扩大成果了。


Fortunately, governments’ growing reticence about progress on human rights – if not outright obstruction – will not stop civil-society groups from continuing their fight for justice.	幸运的是，政府对人权进步问题的日益沉默——甚至赤裸裸的阻挠——不会阻止公民社会组织继续为正义而斗争。


Groups like is Argentina’s Mothers of Plaza de Mayo and the Mothers of Srebrenica have always bravely led the way; they will, no doubt, continue to do so.	阿根廷的“五月广场母亲”（Mothers of Plaza de Mayo）和“斯雷布雷尼察母亲”（Mothers of Srebrenica）等组织一直在勇敢地充当开路先锋； 毫无疑问，它们会继续这样做下去。


But the absence from this process of key governments, especially the emerging powers, threatens to end the world’s all-too-brief era of accountability.	但重要政府（特别是新兴大国政府）缺席这一进程，有可能让世界的问责时代昙花一现。