Inflation hawks argue that the inflation dragon must be slayed before one sees the whites of its eyes: Fail to act now and it will burn you in a year or two.	通胀鹰派认为，通胀恶龙必须在它露出狰狞面目之前就把它解决掉：现在不采取行动会让你在一两年后焦头烂额。


But, in the current circumstances, higher inflation would be good for the economy.	但是，在目前的环境下，通胀走高有利于经济。


There is essentially no risk that the economy would overheat so quickly that the Fed could not intervene in time to prevent excessive inflation.	经济将迅速过热，以至于美联储无法及时干预阻止过度通胀，这一风险基本上不存在。


Whatever the unemployment rate at which inflationary pressures become significant – a key question for policymakers – we know that it is far lower than the rate today.	不管通胀压力开始显现是失业率为何——对决策者来说，这是个关键问题——我们知道，它必然远远低于目前的水平。


If the Fed focuses excessively on inflation, it worsens inequality, which in turn worsens overall economic performance.	如果美联储过度专注于通胀，就会恶化不平等性，从而反过来恶化总体经济表现。


Wages falter during recessions; if the Fed then raises interest rates every time there is a sign of wage growth, workers’ share will be ratcheted down – never recovering what was lost in the downturn.	衰退时工资也会下降； 如果美联储在此后每次出现工资增长苗头时就升息，那么工人的比重就会拉低——永远无法恢复在衰退中发生的损失。


The argument for raising interest rates focuses not on the wellbeing of workers, but that of the financiers.	升息观点所关注的不是工人的福利，而是金融家的福利。


The worry is that in a low-interest-rate environment, investors’ irrational “search for yield” fuels financial-sector distortions.	令人担忧的是，在低利率环境中，投资者不理性的“寻找收益率”会加剧金融部门扭曲。


In a well-functioning economy, one would have expected the low cost of capital to be the basis of healthy growth.	在一个运转良好的经济中，可以预期地资本成本成为健康增长的基础。


In the US, workers are being asked to sacrifice their livelihoods and wellbeing to protect well-heeled financiers from the consequences of their own recklessness.	在美国，工人正在被要求牺牲生活水平和福利保护腰缠万贯的金融家免遭因为他们自己的鲁莽所导致的后果。


The Fed should simultaneously stimulate the economy and tame the financial markets.	美联储应该同时刺激经济和治理金融市场。


Good regulation means more than just preventing the banking sector from harming the rest of us (though the Fed didn’t do a very good job of that before the crisis). It also means adopting and enforcing rules that restrict the flow of funds into speculation and encourage the financial sector to play the constructive role in our economy that it should, by providing capital to establish new firms and enable successful companies to expand.	好监管不但意味着防止银行部门伤害我们其他人（尽管危机前美联储在这方面做得并不好），它还意味着采取和执行规则限制流入投机行为的资金流、鼓励金融部门对经济起建设性作用（通过提供资本建立新企业、让成功的公司能够扩张等）。


I often feel a great deal of sympathy for Fed officials, because they must make close calls in an environment of considerable uncertainty.	我常常对美联储官员深感同情，因为他们必须在充满不确定性的环境中规避风险。


But the call right now is not a close one.	但现在他们没有在规避风险。


On the contrary, it is as close to a no-brainer as such decisions can be: Now is not the time to tighten credit and slow down the economy.	相反，他们的决定接近于没脑子：现在可不是收紧信用、给经济降速的时候。


Fiscal Challenges and Fiscal Follies	财政挑战与财政愚昧


BERKELEY – Where is America’s economy headed in 2013?	发自伯克利——2013年美国经济将会走向何处？


Will the recovery continue at its frustratingly slow pace?	经济复苏的速度还会慢得像现在这么令人沮丧么？


Or will it accelerate as the housing sector rebounds, bank lending expands, household balance sheets improve, and state and local government budgets strengthen?	还是会随着楼市反弹，银行信贷扩张，家庭资产负债表改善和州及地方政府预算状况增强而加速复苏？


With economic headwinds dissipating, the United States’ prospects for faster GDP growth appear promising.	随着经济逆风消散，美国GDP加快增长的前景似乎很有希望。


But there is also a significant risk that a large and unnecessary dose of fiscal austerity will weaken demand, undermine confidence, and tip the economy back into recession.	但也存在这样一个风险：大幅且无必要的财政紧缩可能会削弱需求，打击信心，并使经济重陷衰退。


Since 2010, annual GDP growth has averaged about 2.1%, less than half the average of recoveries from previous US recessions over the last 60 years.	2010年以来，GDP年增长率平均约为2. 1%，这比过去60年以来经济萧条的平均复苏增长率的一半还要低。


Slow GDP growth has meant slow employment growth.	GDP增长缓慢意味着就业增长也缓慢。


The unemployment rate remains about two percentage points higher than what most economists consider consistent with a full recovery, and the labor-force participation rate is hovering near historic lows.	现在的失业率比经济学家认为符合全面复苏的水平高出2%，而劳动力参与率则徘徊在历史最低点附近。


The economy is still operating far below its potential: GDP is about 6% below what the economy is capable of producing at full capacity without higher inflation.	当前经济正在远低于其潜力的水平运行：GDP规模约比发挥全部潜能而不引起通胀的水平要小6%。


Tepid growth reflects weak demand.	温和增长反映了需求疲软。


Housing prices are rising, and, while residential investment is increasing, it remains depressed as a share of GDP.	房价正在上升，尽管住宅投资也在增长，然而其所占GDP比例仍然很低迷。


Households have cut their debt and rebuilt their balance sheets, but the large loss in household wealth, weak growth in wages and income, the concentration of most income gains at the top, and a decline in labor’s share of national income to record lows continue to constrain consumption.	家庭减少了其债务并重建资产负债表，但是家庭财富的巨大损失，工资收入增长疲软，大部分收入集中在高层，国民收入中劳动的比例降到历史低点，这一切都抑制了消费。


Under these circumstances, and with inflation subdued and interest rates on US Treasury securities far below their historical average in both nominal and real terms, the economic case for temporary fiscal measures to boost demand is compelling.	在这些情况下，通胀温和，美国国债利率在名义上及实际价值上远远低于其历史平均水平，经济上极需临时财政措施来刺激需求。


Yet the US Congress, spearheaded by Republicans in the House of Representatives, appears to be heading in the opposite direction, so far failing to agree on a deal to protect the economy from much, if not all, of the $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts – the so-called fiscal cliff – scheduled to take effect in 2013.	然而由众议院共和党人牵头的美国国会似乎却走向了相反的方向，到目前为止未能达成一个保护美国经济免受6000亿美元增税和削减开支——所谓的财政悬崖——影响的协议，而这一政策定于2013年生效。


Confusion, fear, ideology, and electoral self-interest all play a role in the readiness of many members of Congress – despite warnings from the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office, and most private forecasters – to make such an egregious mistake.	困惑、恐惧、意识形态和选举利益在很多国会成员即将——尽管有来自美联储、国会预算办公室和许多私人预测机构的警告——犯下的这样一个惊人错误中起着一定的作用。


First, confusion.	首先是困惑。


The US faces two distinct fiscal challenges: the tax increases and spending cuts that threaten to derail the economy in 2013; and a long-term structural deficit that is likely to mean higher interest rates, less investment, and slower growth once the economy has recovered and the output gap has disappeared.	美国要面对两个独特财政挑战:一是有可能危及美国2013年经济的增税和开支削减； 二是一个结构性的长期赤字很可能意味着更高的利率，更少的投资，以及一旦经济恢复增长及产出缺口消失就会减速的增长。


Unlike the fiscal cliff, the structural deficit problem is not imminent: contrary to deficit hawks’ dire warnings, the US does not face a time-sensitive debt crisis.	不像财政悬崖，结构性的赤字问题并非迫在眉睫的问题：与赤字鹰派危言耸听的警告相反，美国面对的并不是一个相对紧迫的债务危机。


Although US federal debt is projected to rise at an unsustainable rate in the long term, the right solution is not fiscal belt-tightening now, but rather a credible plan to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio gradually as the economy recovers.	尽管美国联邦债务预计将以一种不能长期持续的速度上升，正确的解决方案并不是现在采取财政紧缩政策，而是随着经济复苏制定一个可靠的计划来逐渐稳定债务对GDP的比率。


Indeed, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently observed, preventing a severe fiscal contraction in 2013 will boost growth, reduce the near-term deficit, and help to solve the long-term debt problem.	确实，根据美联储主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）最近的观察，防止在2013年出现严重的财政紧缩将会推动经济增长，减少短期赤字并有助于解决长期的债务问题。


Second, fear.	其次则是恐惧。


The US government currently can borrow at historically low interest rates.	美国政府目前可以以历史最低利率借款。


As a result of the financial crisis, more risk-averse investors at home and abroad have increased their demand  for US Treasury securities.	由于金融危机，国内外更多规避风险的投资者增加了他们对美国国债的需求。


But what if investors lose confidence in the US government’s ability or willingness to tackle its long-term debt problem and begin to fear a default (either explicit or through rapid inflation)?	但如果这些投资者对美国解决其长期债务问题的能力或意愿失去信心，并开始担心违约（无论是直接宣布还是通过快速通胀），那会发生什么情况呢？


The result could be a speculative attack by “bond-market vigilantes,” triggering a sharp rise in interest rates, a dramatic fall in the dollar, or a combination of the two.	结果可能会是“债券市场义勇军”对其发起投机性攻击，这会引起利率飙升，美元大幅贬值，或者两种情况一起出现。


For three years, repeated warnings that such an attack is imminent have flown in the face of the evidence: US Treasury securities remain a safe-haven asset for global investors, including risk-sensitive foreign central banks.	三年来，对这种迫在眉睫危机的再三警告在以下证据面前站不住脚：美国国债市场仍为全球投资者的避险资产，这包括对风险极为敏感的国外央行。


Indeed, global investors ignored Standard & Poor’s 2011 decision to downgrade US government debt, driving down yields even further.	事实上，全球投资者忽略了标准普尔2011年下调美国政府债务评级、导致其收益率进一步下跌的决定。


Of course, Congress could spook investors and increase the likelihood of a bond-market attack by failing to raise the debt ceiling in 2013.	当然，国会可能无法提高2013年的债务上限而导致投资者们恐慌并增加受到债券市场攻击的可能性。


But, absent that monumental folly, long-term interest rates are unlikely to rise significantly as long as the Fed keeps short-term interest rates low – which it recently committed to do until unemployment falls to 6.5%.	但是，只要国会不这么荒唐，而美联储又保持短期低利率，长期利率就不大可能显著上升——国会近来致力于这么做直到失业率降到6. 5%。


Congress thus has adequate time to develop a sensible long-term plan to stabilize the debt without endangering the recovery.	因此国会有足够的时间来制定一个明智的计划用以稳定债务水平同时不用危及到经济复苏。


Third, ideology.	第三是意识形态。


Some members of Congress are unwilling to vote for any tax increase, even as part of a compromise to avert the fiscal cliff or to stabilize the debt.	国会的一些成员不愿意投票支持任何增税，即使增税只是作为用以避免财政悬崖或稳定债务的折衷方案的一部分。


More than 90% of House Republicans have signed a “no-tax pledge.”	90%的众议院共和党人都签了一份“不增税承诺”。


Other members champion the cause of a much smaller government and welcome the deep spending cuts that are scheduled to take effect in 2013, even if they trigger a recession.	其他成员拥护小型政府并支持原定于2013年生效的大幅度削减支出，即使这会引起经济衰退。


For such members, ideological purity trumps economic logic.	对这些成员来说，意识形态的纯洁性比经济逻辑更重要。


Finally, electoral self-interest.	最后是选举利益。


The primary motivation of most members of Congress has always been winning elections.	大部分国会成员的原始动机一直以来都是赢得选举。


But how this motivation affects their willingness to compromise has changed as a result of redistricting and the growing polarization of voting districts along partisan lines.	但由于选区重划以及沿着党派分割线日益加深的选区极端化，现在这个动机如何影响他们妥协意愿的状况已经改变了。


According to a recent analysis by Nate Silver, most House members now come from “hyperpartisan” districts in which the risk of losing to candidates from the other party is small.	根据内特·希尔瓦（Nate Silver）近期的一份分析报告，大部分众议院议员现在都来自“超级党派”地区，在这些地区本党派输给另一党派候选人的风险是很小的。


In such districts, members have little incentive to compromise on bipartisan deals to address the country’s fiscal challenges, because failure to do so poses no threat to their re-election.	在这样的地区，国会成员没有动力为解决国家财政挑战的两党协议妥协，因为不这么做也不会影响到他们的连任。


On the contrary, especially for Republicans from districts with a strong, ideologically motivated base, voting for such deals could trigger a primary electoral challenge from within their own party.	相反，尤其是对来自有强大意识形态基础地区的共和党人，投票支持此类协议可能会引起来自党内的初选挑战。


It was such self-interested Republican members who rebuffed Speaker of the House John Boehner’s proposal to maintain current tax rates for all but those earning more than $1 million per year.	正是这些自私的共和党成员拒绝了众议院院长约翰·博纳（John Boehner）提出的维持目前税率（除了年收入超过一百万美元的人群）的建议。


The outlook for the US economy over the next few years hinges on what a deeply divided Congress decides.	美国经济接下来几年的前景取决于其深度分裂的国会决定。


Right now, the prospect that they will make the right choices appears to be dim.	照目前形势来看，他们会做出正确选择的希望很渺茫。


Let’s hope the odds improve in the New Year.	我们希望，随着新的一年到来，这种机率能有所提高。


Exposing America	曝光美国


WASHINGTON, DC – If not for President Barack Obama’s bold, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough with Cuba, the last weeks of 2014 would have been relentlessly unkind to America.	华盛顿——如果不是奥巴马总统与古巴达成大胆、出人意料的外交突破，2014年过去的几周对美国而言没有任何亮色。


The deep flaws in our country’s justice system, the continuing racism in our society, and our government’s recent record of torture and abuse have been on display for the entire world to see.	世界各国都目睹了美国司法体制的深层次缺陷、社会根深蒂固的种族主义和政府不久前的酷刑和虐待记录。


The video of five police officers subduing and then killing a man, despite his pleas that he could not breathe, could have come from many countries around the world.	五名警察不顾嫌疑人无法呼吸的苦苦哀求，制服并杀害嫌疑人的视频或许会发生在世界任何一个角落。


But the killing of Eric Garner in New York City, like that of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, last summer and of 12-year-old Tamir Rice in Cleveland in November, reflect the heightened risk that young African-American men face at the hands of the police in many US cities.	但埃里克·加纳在纽约被害、迈克尔·布朗去年夏天在密苏里州弗格森被害和年仅12岁的塔米尔·赖斯11月在克利夫兰遇害反映出非洲裔美国男青年在众多美国城市警察手中面临着更为严重的生命威胁。


Indeed, according to one recent analysis, young African-American males are 21 times more likely than young white males to be fatally shot by the police.	事实上，最近一项分析显示，非洲裔美国男青年遭警方致命枪击的概率比白人男青年高21倍。


Then came the release by the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence of 528 pages of its report on the CIA’s detention and interrogation program, established following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on America.	紧接着传出了美国参议院特别情报委员会长达528页的报告，揭露中情局在2001年9月11日美国遭受恐怖袭击后设立的拘留及审讯程序。


What the committee described as an “executive summary” detailed horrific behavior by government officials acting on instructions from their superiors.	该委员会的 “执行概要”详细描述了政府官员在上级授意下所采取的恐怖行为。


Worse, rather than seeking to make amends for the abuses, at least one group of former US officials sought to justify them.	更有甚者，不止一伙前美国官员不仅拒绝弥补虐待的错误，而且试图为自己的行为辩解。


When asked on US television about the estimated 25% of detainees who were innocent, former Vice President Dick Cheney responded: “I have no problem as long as we achieve our objective.	当在电视上被问及大约25%的被拘留者属于无辜被抓时，前副总统迪克·切尼回应：“只要达到目的我不觉得有什么不妥。


And our objective is to get the guys who did 9/11 and it is to avoid another attack against the United States.”	我们的目的是抓住9/11事件的肇事者，避免袭击再次发生在美国。


For their part, some current CIA officials continue to insist on the value of America’s “enhanced interrogation” program (which Obama halted), despite the Senate report’s conclusion that the techniques it employed yielded no valuable intelligence.	”某些现任中情局官员仍坚持强调美国“强化审讯”计划（该计划已被奥巴马勒令停止）的价值，尽管参议院报告的结论是所采用的技术并没有产生任何有价值的情报。


Indeed, other accounts of America’s “global war on terror” also make it clear that many of the people who were detained and tortured were not threats to America’s security – at least not until US actions made them so.	事实上，针对“美国全球反恐战争”的其他研究也明确指出，很多遭拘留和虐待的人并不构成对美国的安全威胁——至少在美国的所作所为把他们变成敌人之前是这样。


The week the Senate report came out, I was reading Anand Gopal’s new book No Good Men Among the Living, which tells contemporary Afghanistan’s story through the eyes of a supporter of former President Hamid Karzai, a Taliban commander, and a Kabul-born housewife who spent years in purdah in Taliban country.	参议院报告发布的那周我正在看阿南德·戈帕尔的新书活下来的没有好人，这部书描述了一位前总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊的支持者、一名塔利班指挥官和一位多年蒙着面纱生活在塔利班控制区的生于喀布尔的家庭主妇眼中的当代阿富汗。


Over and over again, the same story plays out: a local power-broker is willing, even eager, to support the new US-backed government, only to be denounced as a Taliban member by a fellow Afghan – typically for local political or personal reasons – to unwitting American troops.	同样的故事一次又一次上演：当地的权力掮客愿意、甚至迫不及待地支持以美国人为后台的新政府，目的仅仅是被阿富汗同胞在毫不知情的美军面前指责为加入塔利班——他们往往出于地方政治或个人原因才会这样做。


Indeed, this pattern recurs in the accounts of anyone who has lived in Afghanistan, spoken the language, and understood the workings of patronage and power there.	事实上，这种模式在阿富汗居民、阿富汗语使用者和了解当地依附和权力运作规则的人那里屡见不鲜。


It was often these denounced men who were detained – and tortured – for years.	往往是这些被谴责者遭到拘留和折磨长达数年之久。


From my vantage point as a US foreign-policy expert, the only bright spot in recent months has been Obama’s normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba.	从一名美国外交政策专家的角度，近几个月美国唯一的亮点就是奥巴马与古巴实现外交关系正常化。


Finally, America has an opportunity to launch a new beginning, not only with Cuba but also with the Caribbean and Latin American countries that have pressed us hard and often to change our stance.	最后，美国现在可以走向新的开始，不仅与古巴，也与频繁对我们施以高压迫使我们改变立场的加勒比和拉美国家重新开始。


Indeed, the move will stand as one of Obama’s most substantial foreign-policy achievements, with implications that will reverberate for decades.	事实上，此举将成为奥巴马最为重大的外交政策成就，其深远影响在几十年后还能感受到。


Yet a common theme runs through all of these recent events, good and bad alike.	但无论好坏，最近发生的事件都有同样的主题贯穿始终。


In each case, US institutions and officials held other US institutions and officials to account.	它们的共同点是美国机构和官员追究其他美国机构和官员的责任。


Congress documented and publicized the actions of the executive branch in the torture report.	议会酷刑报告记录并公布了行政部门的作为。


Senator Dianne Feinstein worked doggedly to ensure that the Senate intelligence committee could research and document US interrogation practices, even in the face of staunch opposition by the CIA (which even surreptitiously searched the committee’s computers).	费恩斯坦参议员顽强努力，以确保参议院情报委员会得以在中情局（该机构甚至暗中搜查了委员会的电脑）的强烈反对下研究并记录美国的审讯实务。


“There are those who will seize upon the report and say ‘see what Americans did,’” Feinstein said, “and they will try to use it to justify evil actions or to incite more violence.	“肯定会有人拿着这份报告说‘看看美国人的所作所为’”，费恩斯坦表示，“他们会利用这份报告来为自己的邪恶行为寻找借口，或者进一步煽动暴力。


We cannot prevent that.	我们无法阻止这样的行为。


But history will judge us by our commitment to a just society governed by law and the willingness to face an ugly truth and say ‘never again.’”	但历史会以是否遵守法律并有勇气对丑恶真相说‘不’来评判我��。 ”


Likewise, the press and many civil-society groups documented and publicized not only the killings of Brown, Garner, and others, but also how those cases reflected a pattern of racially disparate treatment by the police.	同样，媒体和众多民间社团不但记录并公开了布朗、加纳和其他人的被害事件，而且还公开了上述案件所反映的警方对待不同种族的差异态度。


And when Obama announced the restoration of full diplomatic relations with Cuba, the White House described the last half-century of US policy as a “failed approach,” isolating the US, constraining its influence in hemispheric politics, and tying its hands in Cuba itself.	当奥巴马宣布全面恢复对古巴外交关系时，白宫用 “失败”来概括半个世纪来美国对古巴的外交政策。 上述政策从实质上孤立美国，限制其在世界政治中的影响，并在古巴问题上实现自我束缚。


Americans are no better (and no worse) than anyone else.	美国人并不优于（或者逊于）其他民族。


We have no right to moralize, and we have much to learn from others.	我们没有权利说教，还有很多东西要向他人学习。


Fortunately, our founding fathers gave us the exceptional gift of a political system that pushes us continually in the direction of self-correction.	幸运的是，我们的开国元勋赋予了我们得天独厚的政治制度，能够促使我们不断自我修正，取得进步。


The ability to correct wrongdoing can never justify doing wrong in the first place.	有能力纠正错误永远也不是犯错的理由。


The point of exposure is not to celebrate our ability to expose.	揭露的意义不在于庆幸我们有能力揭露。


We Americans must learn how to look at ourselves and our government the way others do.	我们美国人必须学会站在别国的角度认识我们的民众和政府。


We have much to answer for.	我们肩负着沉重的责任。


But at least we know that we have asked the right questions.	但至少我们知道我们的提问是正确的。


Obama 2.0	奥巴马2. 0


DENVER – It’s over.	丹佛—结束了。


After a year-long campaign costing $2.5-6 billion (estimates vary widely), President Barack Obama has won a second four-year term, with 49 states reporting their results on election night (Florida, for the second time in four presidential elections, did not).	在经历了耗时一年、耗费25—60亿美元的大选之后（诸项估计差别很大），49各州在选举当夜报告了投票结果（佛罗里达不在其中，这是四次总统选举以来的第二次）总统奥巴马赢得了第二个4年任期。


Obama now has a chance to define the United States’ role in the international system for years to come.	现在，奥巴马有机会定义未来几年中美国在国际体系中的角色了。


Second terms can often be productive times for US foreign policy, largely because presidents cannot seek a third.	第二个任期对于美国对外政策来说通常是富有成效的四年，这主要是因为总统们不能寻求第三个任期。


George W. Bush, for example, used his second four years in office to fix mistakes made during his first (his second-term team was busy).	比如，小布什把他的第二个任期用来修正第一个任期中犯下的错误（他的第二任期团队可忙坏了）。


Presidents in their second terms often apply old-fashioned American pragmatism to tough issues, which they often cannot do during their first terms, when reelection is their first priority.	第二任期总统通常会使用典型的美国范式来处理棘手问题，而在第一个任期中他们无法这样做，因为连任才是第一要务。


Obama’s infamous open-mike remark to Russian Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev that he would have more flexibility after the election may have shocked some, but, for most foreign-policy experts, he was stating the obvious.	奥巴马曾有过漏嘴，对俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫表示大选后他将会有更大的周旋余地，这让他名声受损，哑铃不少人感到震惊，但对大部分外交政策专家来说，他无非是在表述一个显而易见的事实。


The president’s challenge is to use his new freedom of action quickly, before the perception sets in (as it inevitably does) that he is a lame duck.	奥巴马的挑战是快速利用新获得的行动自由，必须抢在人们觉得他碌碌无为（注定会如此）之前。


Obama’s first foreign excursion after the election will be to Laos to attend the East Asian summit, a trip that is perceived as part of his administration’s “pivot” to Asia.	连任后，奥巴马的第一次出访将是赴老挝出席东亚峰会，这被视为奥巴马政府亚洲“中心”政策的一部分。


He will also visit Myanmar (Burma) in an effort to lend support to that struggling country’s extraordinary changes and encourage further progress.	他还将访问缅甸，支持这个努力奋斗中的国家的惊人变化，并鼓励它继续进步。


But the real challenge for Obama is to do more to explain what the “pivot” means, because already his bold side trip to the unfinished project in Myanmar is being perceived as yet another effort to contain or, worse, encircle China.	但奥巴马真正的挑战是进一步解释“中心”的意思，因为他专门抽出时间前往改革未竟的缅甸的安排被视为是遏制甚至包围中国的又一举动。


What began as a strategic shift to an area of the world replete with long-term US interests has become – even to many anxious Americans – an exercise in picking new fights with a country of 1.3 billion people undergoing painful internal transformations of its own.	对这个美国利益极大的地区的战略变化已经演变成对拥有13亿人口、正在经历其自身痛苦内部转型的大国的开战新宣言，即使对于许多焦急的美国人来说也是如此。


US policy in Asia requires a steady hand, and, in Obama, the US has just that.	美国的亚洲政策需要步步为营，而奥巴马正好满足这一条件。


But it also needs effective communication that makes clear to the American people that the relationship with China truly is too big to fail and thus requires a long-term process of thoughtful engagement.	但同时也需要有效地与美国人民沟通，让他们知道与中国的关系兹事体大，不能出现差错，因此必须有深思熟虑的长期计划。


Such messages must be issued more often by the president himself, and not only by officials several bureaucratic layers below.	这样的信息必须有总统本人反复提出，而不只是由他手下甚至手下的手下代劳。


American policy in Asia in general, and toward China in particular, has enjoyed consistent bipartisan support.	总体而言，美国的亚洲政策，特别是对中国的中策，是两党所共同支持的。


When a US president has bipartisan support on any issue, he should flaunt it.	对美国总统来说，对于一个两党都支持的问题，他应该高调行事。


There is no question that dealing with China, which is in an anxious mood of its own, has become increasingly difficult.	毫无疑问，对付自身不安情绪日渐高涨的中国已变得越来越困难。


But the way to address China’s internal tensions and emerging nationalism, and the resulting strains in its relationships with its neighbors, is not to put the region’s countries in the position of having to choose between China and the US.	但解决中国内部矛盾和日渐兴起的民族主义，以及由此产生的对四邻关系的影响还不至于迫使该地区各国在中国和美国之间做出选择。


The right approach is to be constant, to stress long-term commitments, and to speak in a calm and measured way, understanding that good China policy is about relationships, not transactions.	正确的态度是坚持立场、强调长期承诺，并以冷静而客观的语调发声，认识到好的中国政策是经营关系，而不是做交易。


No one does that better than this president.	没有人在这方面比奥巴马做得更好的了。


Another aspect of the pivot involves moving away from the Middle East.	 “中心”的另一层含义是将焦点从中东移开。


But no amount of fancy footwork, whether pivoting or pirouetting, can diminish that region’s importance.	但再怎么闪转腾挪，也不能降低中东地区的重要性。


The Middle East will remain a central pillar of world energy for decades to come.  Whether it ultimately can export more energy than instability is the key question.	中东在未来几十年内将仍然是世界能源的核心支柱。 中东出口能源更多还是出口动荡更多，这是一个关键问题。


Unlike East Asia, the Middle East remains a region in turmoil, the complexity of which defies analytical consensus.	与东亚不同，中东仍是一个动荡之地，其复杂性之巨导致了根本无法形成一致的分析意见。


Do the region’s crises stem from the lack of peace with Israel?	该地区的危机源于不能与以色列和平共处吗？


Or is some combination of other factors – boiling frustration with the regional economic order, for example, or a US intervention that turned Sunni-led Iraq into the Arab world’s lonely, Shia-led black sheep – at its root?	还是其他因素的综合效应在作祟——比如对地区经济秩序的民怨沸腾以及美国的干预导致逊尼派领导的伊拉克成为阿拉伯世界孤立无援的什叶派领导的另类国家？


The Obama administration needs to do a far better job in its second term when it comes to defining the issues and setting the scope of a reenergized US diplomatic effort in the region.	在定义这些问题并决定美国的中东政策重振大计的框架方面，奥巴马政府在第二个任期内需要做出更棒的工作。


In Obama’s first term, mediators were dispatched to the region within days of his inauguration.	在第一个任期中，奥巴马宣誓就职后几天就向中东地区派遣了特使。


Perhaps this time, there should be a greater effort at developing coherent polices first.	也许这一回奥巴马需要作出更大的努力，以发展连贯性政策为重。


I suggest starting with Syria.	我建议从叙利亚开始。


In the absence of international leadership in forging a political end-state, Syria’s conflict has tragically become a sectarian civil war – one that is rapidly metastasizing, with far-reaching consequences for US interests in the region and for prior US political investments in projects like Iraq.	由于缺少国际领导从而形成政治解决方案，叙利亚冲突悲剧地演变为一场宗派内战，一场快速转移的内战，对美国在该地区的利益以及伊拉克等美国重点���治投资造成深远的后果。


We need to put aside crowd-pleasing calls for President Bashar al-Assad’s removal (though obviously he must go) and work harder with international partners, including Russia and China – both of which should, quite frankly, rank higher than Syria in terms of their importance to US foreign policy.	我们需要放弃要求叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德下台的呼吁，这只能徒增笑柄（尽管他显然应该下台），转而致力于斡旋包括俄罗斯和中国在内的国际伙伴——毫无疑问，对于美国的外交政策，这两个国家的重要性远远高过叙利亚。


Finally, the US needs reliable partners.	最后，美国需要可靠的伙伴。


And among the most reliable is Europe.	最可靠的伙伴是欧洲。


But Europe is preoccupied with its own economic problems, which have pressed European leadership to the breaking point.	但欧洲被其自身经济问题困扰着，其领导力正濒于崩溃。


Europe will be back (the sooner the better).	欧洲会回来的（越快越好）。


In the meantime, the US needs to do all that it can, including showing some uncharacteristic patience, to help Europe emerge from its crisis.	与此同时，美国需要竭尽全力——包括拿出不同寻常的耐心——帮助欧洲从危机中恢复。


It also needs to continue to engage with Europe on international projects, including negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program – an issue of fundamental significance to international security.	美国也需要继续在国际问题上和欧洲合作，包括对国际安全具有根本重要性的伊朗核核计划谈判。


No president in recent decades has had a better temperament and a clearer vision for facing the world’s challenges than the one that Americans have just reelected.	在几十年来的各位美国总统中，论秉性和面对世界挑战时的清晰头脑，无出刚刚获得连任的那位之右者。


Obama now has an opportunity to put that talent to work in ways that he could not in his first term.	现在，奥巴马获得了以第一个任期内无法运用的方式运用这一天赋的机会。


America’s Sequestered Recovery	美国的自动减赤复苏


BERKELEY – The United States is confronting another round of cuts in federal government spending, this time threatening to trim at least 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth and to precipitate a loss of at least one million jobs.	伯克利—美国正面临新一轮联邦政府支出削减，这一回至少要从GDP增长中削去0. 5%个百分点，减少至少100万个就业岗位。


Automatic across-the-board spending cuts, the so-called “sequester,” would reduce spending by $85 billion, with defense programs cut by about 8% and domestic programs by about 5% this year – and with additional cuts of comparable dollar amounts every year until 2021.	自动的全面支出削减，即所谓的“自动减赤”（sequester），将减少850亿美元支出——并在2021年之前每年都削减这一规模的数量。


All major government functions – national security, foreign aid, basic research, emergency relief, and education, to name a few salient examples – would experience an immediate and sizeable funding hit.	所有主要政府功能——尤其是国防、对外援助、基础研究、应急救援和教育等——将经历迅猛而巨大的资金冲击。


These cuts, along with the tax increases agreed to in January, would knock about 1.25 percentage points off 2013 GDP growth, consigning the economy to another year of tepid recovery and disappointing job gains.	如此削减与1月达成的增税方案一起，将拖累2013年GDP增长1. 25个百分点，使今年沦为又一个复苏萎靡、就业创造下滑的年份。


The real aim of the sequester’s advocates is a smaller federal government – a goal that often is cloaked in the argument that excessive government spending is choking economic growth.	自动减赤支持者的真实目标是减小联邦政府规模——通常以政府支出过多会影响经济增长的观点出现。


Although this is a politically compelling argument, because it stokes public fears about an out-of-control deficit, it flies in the face of the facts.	尽管这一观点在政治上颇具吸引力（因为它会激发公众对赤字失控的担忧），却与事实背道而驰。


Anemic government spending, not profligacy, has been a major factor behind the economy’s lackluster recovery.	政府支出不足，而不是浪费，是经济复苏不振的主要因素。


According to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office, large spending cuts by state and local governments – and, more recently, a significant reduction in federal spending – have contributed to the unusual and prolonged weakness of aggregate demand.	据国会预算办公室的最新报告显示，州和地方政府的大规模减支——以及最近的联邦支出大幅削减——是总需求反常的长期不振的原因。


In recent speeches, US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chair Janet Yellen have described fiscal policy at the local, state, and federal levels as a powerful headwind slowing the economy’s return to full employment.	在最新讲话中，美联储主席伯南克和副主席耶伦（Janet Yellen）认为地方、州和联邦层面的财政赤字已成为经济恢复充分就业的一大障碍。


In the year after the recession ended, discretionary spending at the federal, state, and local levels boosted growth at about the same pace as in previous recoveries.	在衰退结束后的一年中，联邦、州和地方层面的自由裁量支出提振增长的效果与前几次复苏不相上下。


But, since then – and in sharp contrast to previous recoveries – fiscal policy has become contractionary, reducing aggregate demand and restraining growth.	但是，随后——与前几次复苏截然相反——财政政策转而成为紧缩性，抑制了总需求，拖累了增长。


State and local governments have cut spending and payrolls significantly.	州和地方政府大幅削减支出和岗位。


And federal purchases of goods and services have been declining since 2010, when the temporary additional spending in the 2009 stimulus package came to an end.	2009年刺激方案中的临时性增支措施到期退出后，自2010年以来，联邦商品和服务采购量以来一直在下降。


Even without the sequester, real per capita government spending (including both purchases and transfer payments) has declined under President Barack Obama, while it increased under every preceding president since Richard Nixon.	即使没有自动减赤，真实人均政府支出（包括采购和转移支付）也在奥巴马执政期间有所下降，而在自尼克松以来的诸位总统任期中，这一指标均是上升的。


(Indeed, per capita spending growth was much faster under the Republican administrations of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush than it was under Democratic Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.)	（事实上，平均支出增长在里根和小布什的共和党政府期间比卡特和克林顿的民主党政府期间增长要快得多。


And, even without the sequester, the federal budget deficit is set to fall at a faster pace during the next two years than in any two-year period since demobilization after World War II.	）即使没有自动减赤，联邦预算赤字也会在未来两年中以比二战复员后的任一两年期都快的速度下降。


As a result of a deep and persistent deficiency in aggregate demand, the US economy has been operating far below its potential output level.	由于总需求持续严重不足，美国经济一直在远低于潜在产出的水平运行。


Real GDP fell by 8% relative to its noninflationary potential in 2008-2009, and has remained about 8% below its previous growth path ever since.	2008—2009年，真实GDP相对无通胀潜在水平降低了8%，此后一直运行于前期增长路径之下8%的水平。


This translates into about $900 billion of foregone goods and services this year alone – a tremendous waste reflected in an unemployment rate of 7.9% and a poverty rate of 15%, significantly higher than the average of the past 30 years.	这意味着光是今年就要损失9000亿美元的商品和服务——这一巨大的浪费体现于7. 9%的失业率和15%的贫困率上，这两个数字均远高于过去30年的平均水平。


And the waste accumulates over time: the longer the economy operates far below its capacity, the slower the growth in its future capacity as a result of diminished risk-taking, foregone investment, and erosion of the skills base.	且如此浪费还在随时间而恶化：经济在其产能水平之下运行得越久，其未来产能增长就越慢，因为风险承担行为减少了，投资消失了，技能基础弱化了。


The significant loss of current and future potential output is all the more remarkable, because it has occurred despite a sustained and unprecedented effort by the Fed to boost demand and hasten the recovery.	当前和未来潜在产出的巨大损失更加触目惊心，因为这是在美联储持续以前所未有的措施提振需求、刺激增长的情况下发生的。


Fed officials have repeatedly expressed concern that the prolonged weak recovery will inflict future pain in the form of slower long-run growth.	美联储官员再三表示了对复苏长期萎靡会导致未来长期增长率降低的担忧。


Motivated by this concern, the Fed has held the nominal short-term interest rate near zero – its effective lower bound – for more than five years, with a promise to keep it there until 2015, and has been purchasing about $1 trillion of long-term government bonds each year.	出于这一担忧，美联储在五年多的时间里一直将名义短期利率维持在近零水平——它的实际下限，并承诺一直如此直到2015年。 此外，美联储每年还购入约1万亿美元的政府债券。


As a result, the nominal yield on the ten-year Treasury bond, a widely used measure of the federal government’s borrowing costs, hovers around 2%.	结果，十年期美国国债名义收益率——广泛使用的联邦政府借贷成本指标——一直在2%徘徊。


That is higher than the record low of 1.4% hit in 2012, but less than half the pre-2008 level and less than a third of its 40-year average.	这比2012年的历史低点1. 4%高些，但只有2008年前水平的不到一半，40年平均水平的三分之一。


In real terms, both short-term and long-term interest rates remain in negative territory.	以真实值衡量，短期和长期利率均为负。


Recent research has found that the multiplier for discretionary fiscal policy – the change in output caused by a change in discretionary government spending – is larger when nominal interest rates are low and there is a significant amount of underutilized resources.	最新的研究发现，自由裁量财政政策乘数——即自由裁量政府支出变化引起的产出变化——在名义利率较低、大量资源未获得充分利用时较高。


These conditions describe the US economy as it faces yet another round of government spending cuts that would have negative multiplier effects on GDP and job growth.	这些情况表明，美国经济所面临的新一轮政府支出削减将对GDP和就业增长产生负乘数效应。


Indeed, these effects are likely to be larger than expected compared to conventional multiplier estimates, which rest on two assumptions: the economy is close to full employment; and the contraction in demand caused by a cut in government spending will be offset by a drop in interest rates.	事实上，与传统乘数估计相比，这些效应可能比预计的更大。 传统乘数估计基于两个假设：经济接近充分就业、因政府支出削减导致的需求下降会被利率下降抵消。


Neither assumption applies today.	如今，这两个假设均不成立。


Even worse, the sequester’s across-the-board spending cuts make no distinction between effective and essential programs and programs that represent special interests or have outlived their original purpose.	更糟糕的是，自动减赤的全面减支效应并不区分有效的重要项目和代表特殊立业或已与初衷背道而驰的项目。


Such arbitrary cuts are likely to inflict more damage on the economy than sensibly targeted cuts of the same magnitude.	如此武断的削减可能比相同程度的明智定位削减造成更大的伤害。


The sequester is the product of ideology and political stalemate.	自动减赤是意识形态和政治僵局的产物。


It has no economic justification.	它没有任何经济依据。


In the long run, additional targeted spending cuts will be necessary as part of a balanced package to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio.	从长期看，增加定向支出削减是稳定债务/GDP比率的平衡方案不缺少的一部分。


But they are not necessary now.	但如今，它们并非不可缺少。


Indeed, by endangering the economy’s halting recovery, they would be counterproductive.	事实上，由于可能令经济复苏停滞，它们将起到相反的效果。


The Single-Engine Global Economy	单引擎全球经济


TOKYO – The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off and steer clear of clouds and storms.	东京—全球经济就像是一架喷气式客机，需要所有引擎都能正常运转才能冲破云霄。


Unfortunately, only one of its four engines is functioning properly: the Anglosphere (the United States and its close cousin, the United Kingdom).	不幸的是，这架飞机的四个引擎中只有一个能够正常运转：盎格鲁文化圈（美国及其近亲英国）。


The second engine – the eurozone – has now stalled after an anemic post-2008 restart.	第二个引擎——欧元区在2008年危机后迟迟无法启动。


Indeed, Europe is one shock away from outright deflation and another bout of recession.	事实上，欧洲距离通货紧缩和新一轮衰退只有一步之遥。


Likewise, the third engine, Japan, is running out of fuel after a year of fiscal and monetary stimulus.	类似地，第三个引擎——日本在一年的财政和货币刺激后也失去了动力。


And emerging markets (the fourth engine) are slowing sharply as decade-long global tailwinds – rapid Chinese growth, zero policy rates and quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve, and a commodity super-cycle – become headwinds.	而新兴市场（第四个引擎）因为长达十年的全球顺风——中国高速增长、美联储的零政策利率和量化宽松以及商品超级周期——转为逆风而迅速减速。


So the question is whether and for how long the global economy can remain aloft on a single engine.	因此，问题在于全球经济是否能依靠单引擎维持、能维持多久。


Weakness in the rest of the world implies a stronger dollar, which will invariably weaken US growth.	世界其余部分的疲软意味着强势美元，而强势美元难免削弱美国的增长。


The deeper the slowdown in other countries and the higher the dollar rises, the less the US will be able to decouple from the funk everywhere else, even if domestic demand seems robust.	其他国家减速越深、美元升值越高，美国就越是无法摆脱其他地区的恐惧和焦虑，即使其内需看上去相当强健。


Falling oil prices may provide cheaper energy for manufacturers and households, but they hurt energy exporters and their spending.	油价下跌可以为制造业和家庭带来更便宜的能源，但也伤害了能源出口商及其开支。


And, while increased supply – particularly from North American shale resources – has put downward pressure on prices, so has weaker demand in the eurozone, Japan, China, and many emerging markets.	供给的增加——特别是来自北美的页岩资源的供给——给价格造成下降压力，与此同时，欧元区、日本、中国和其他新兴市场需求减少也起到了同样的效果。


Moreover, persistently low oil prices induce a fall in investment in new capacity, further undermining global demand.	此外，持续低油价导致新产能投资下降，进一步制约了全球需求。


Meanwhile, market volatility has grown, and a correction is still underway.	与此同时，市场波动日益增加，目前仍处于修正阶段。


Bad macro news can be good for markets, because a prompt policy response alone can boost asset prices.	坏宏观消息或许对市场有利，因为光是积极的政策反应就足以提振资产价格。


But recent bad macro news has been bad for markets, owing to the perception of policy inertia.	但最新的坏宏观消息对市场不利，因为人们已经感到了政策瓶颈。


Indeed, the European Central Bank is dithering about how much to expand its balance sheet with purchases of sovereign bonds, while the Bank of Japan only now decided to increase its rate of quantitative easing, given evidence that this year’s consumption-tax increase is impeding growth and that next year’s planned tax increase will weaken it further.	事实上，欧洲央行正在犹豫应该将其资产负债表扩大多少来购买主权债券，而日本银行方才决定增加其量化宽松率，因为证据表明今年的消费税增加措施阻碍了增长，而计划中的明年税收增加将进一步削弱增长。


As for fiscal policy, Germany continues to resist a much-needed stimulus to boost eurozone demand.	在财政政策方面，德国继续抵制提振欧元区需求所急需的刺激。


And Japan seems to be intent on inflicting on itself a second, growth-retarding consumption-tax increase.	而日本似乎也坚持要给自己施加第二次阻碍增长的消费税提升。


Furthermore, the Fed has now exited quantitative easing and is showing a willingness to start raising policy rates sooner than markets expected.	此外，美联储目前已经退出量化宽松，并表现出比市场预期更早开始提升政策利率的意愿。


If the Fed does not postpone rate increases until the global economic weather clears, it risks an aborted takeoff – the fate of many economies in the last few years.	如果美联储在全球经济气候明朗前就提高利率，就有可能让起飞失败——在过去几年中，许多经济体遭遇过这一命运。


If the Republican Party takes full control of the US Congress in November’s mid-term election, policy gridlock is likely to worsen, risking a re-run of the damaging fiscal battles that led last year to a government shutdown and almost to a technical debt default.	如果共和党在11月的中期选举中完全控制了美国国会，政策将局就有可能恶化，为害甚剧的财政斗争就有可能卷土重来——去年的财政斗争曾经导致政府关门、债务几近技术违约。


More broadly, the gridlock will prevent the passage of important structural reforms that the US needs to boost growth.	更广泛地说，政策将局会阻碍提振美国增长所需要的重要结构性改革的通过。


Major emerging countries are also in trouble.	主要新兴国家也陷入了麻烦。


Of the five BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), three (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) are close to recession.	在五个金砖经济体（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）中，有三个（巴西、俄罗斯和南非）接近衰退。


The biggest, China, is in the midst of a structural slowdown that will push its growth rate closer to 5% in the next two years, from above 7% now.	最大的金砖经济体中国也陷入了结构性减速，其经济增长率在未来两年中将向5%靠拢（目前为7%以上）。


At the same time, much-touted reforms to rebalance growth from fixed investment to consumption are being postponed until President Xi Jinping consolidates his power.	与此同时，被大肆宣传的增长再平衡改革——从固定资产投资转向消费——在国家主席习近平巩固权力之前也不可能实现。


China may avoid a hard landing, but a bumpy and rough one appears likely.	中国或许能避免硬着陆，但过程将是崎岖坎坷的。


The risk of a global crash has been low, because deleveraging has proceeded apace in most advanced economies; the effects of fiscal drag are smaller; monetary policies remain accommodative; and asset reflation has had positive wealth effects.	全球崩溃的风险很小，因为大部分发达经济体都在迅速去杠杆化； 财政拖累的影响较小；


Moreover, many emerging-market countries are still growing robustly, maintain sound macroeconomic policies, and are starting to implement growth-enhancing structural reforms.	资产再通胀也造成了积极的财富效应。 此外，许多新兴市场国家仍在强健增长，保持着可靠的宏观经济政策，并开始实施强化增长的结构性改革。


And US growth, currently exceeding potential output, can provide sufficient global lift – at least for now.	而美国的增长目前已超过潜在产出，至少在目前可以提供充分的全球支持。


But serious challenges lie ahead.	但严峻的挑战还在前头。


Private and public debts in advanced economies are still high and rising – and are potentially unsustainable, especially in the eurozone and Japan.	发达经济体的私人和公共债务依旧高企并且还在上升——从根本上说这是不可持续的，特别是在欧元区和日本。


Rising inequality is redistributing income to those with a high propensity to save (the rich and corporations), and is exacerbated by capital-intensive, labor-saving technological innovation.	不平等性的加剧正在让收入向高储蓄倾向人群（富人和公司）转移，而资本密集型、劳动力节约型技术创新加强了这一趋势。


This combination of high debt and rising inequality may be the source of the secular stagnation that is making structural reforms more politically difficult to implement.	高债务和不平等性加剧的组合也许是长期停滞的根源。 长期停滞导致结构性改革从根本上更加难以实施。


If anything, the rise of nationalistic, populist, and nativist parties in Europe, North America, and Asia is leading to a backlash against free trade and labor migration, which could further weaken global growth.	欧洲、北美和亚洲民族主义、民粹主义和本地主义政党的刑期正在导致针对自由贸易和劳动力迁徙的阻挠斗争，而这将进一步削弱全球增长。


Rather than boosting credit to the real economy, unconventional monetary policies have mostly lifted the wealth of the very rich – the main beneficiaries of asset reflation.	非常规货币政策没有增加流向实体经济的信用，反而大大增加了巨富人群的财富——他们也是资产再通胀的主要受益者。


But now reflation may be creating asset-price bubbles, and the hope that macro-prudential policies will prevent them from bursting is so far just that – a leap of faith.	但如今再通胀可能在制造资产价格泡沫，而从目前看，寄希望于宏观审慎政策能够阻止泡沫破裂还只是一种“情怀”。


Fortunately, rising geopolitical risks – a Middle East on fire, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hong Kong’s turmoil, and China’s territorial disputes with its neighbors – together with geo-economic threats from, say, Ebola and global climate change, have not yet led to financial contagion.	幸运的是，地缘风险的增加——中东战火、俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突、香港动乱以及中国与邻国的领土纠纷——加上埃博拉和全球气候变化等地缘经济威胁尚没有导致金融传染。


Nonetheless, they are slowing down capital spending and consumption, given the option value of waiting during uncertain times.	尽管如此，它们减缓了资本支出和消费，因为在不确定时期，等待是更好的选择。


So the global economy is flying on a single engine, the pilots must navigate menacing storm clouds, and fights are breaking out among the passengers.	全球经济正在靠单引擎飞行，而飞行员必须面对险恶的暴雨云团，飞机上的乘客还在打架。


If only there were emergency crews on the ground.	但愿地面上的紧急救援人员已经就位。


Beating America’s Health-Care Monopolists	击败美国的医疗垄断企业


BERKELEY – The United States’ Affordable Care Act (ACA), President Barack Obama’s signature 2010 health-care reform, has significantly increased the need for effective antitrust enforcement in health-insurance markets.	伯克利——美国医疗平价法案（ACA）及巴拉克·奥巴马总统2010年医疗改革签名已经显著增强了医疗保险市场的有效反垄断执法需求。


Despite recent good news on this front, the odds remain stacked against consumers.	尽管最近在这方面有不少好消息，但局面仍然不利于消费者。


As Berkeley economics professor Aaron Edlin has pointed out, consumer abstention is the ultimate competitor.	伯克利经济学教授艾伦·艾林指出，消费者放弃权利才是最终的对手。


Companies cannot purchase or contrive a solution to consumers who say, “I’m just not going to buy this.”	企业无法为坚持“我就要买这个”的消费者购买或设计解决方案。


But the ACA requires individuals to purchase health insurance, thus creating a vertical demand curve for potential monopolists.	但ACA要求个人购买医疗保险，并因此为潜在的垄断企业创造出垂直的需求曲线。


Under these conditions, profits – and consumer abuse – can be maximized through collusion.	在这样的条件下，利润——和消费者陋习——可以通过串通来实现最大化。


It is not surprising, then, that in 2015 some of the largest private American health-insurance companies – Anthem, Cigna, Aetna, and Humana – began exploring the possibility of merging.	于是乎不出所料，2015年Anthem、Cigna、Aetna和Humana等某些规模最大的美国私人医疗保险公司开始探索合并的可能。


If they could reduce the number of national insurers from five to three, they could then increase their market power and squeeze more profits from consumers.	如果能将全国性保险公司从五个减少到三个，他们就能进一步强化市场力量并从消费者那里榨取更多利润。


The industry trotted out all the standard arguments to justify such consolidation, claiming that it would actually benefit consumers by making health-insurer operations more efficient.	业内人士抛出了所有的标准论据来证明合并的合理性，声称这将因为医疗保险运营效率的提高而惠及消费者。


No mention was made that, according to the Center for American Progress, competition between Aetna and Humana just in the Medicare Advantage health-insurance market reduces the average annual premium customers pay each company by $155 and $43, respectively.	没有人提到按照美国发展中心的统计，仅Aetna 和Humana两家企业在联邦医疗保险优惠计划市场的竞争就使消费者向这两家企业的年平均保费缴款分别下降了155美元和43美元。


In July, the US Justice Department sued to block a merger between Aetna and Humana, after the deal was on its way to being rubberstamped by regulators in Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, North Carolina, and other states.	7月，美国司法部提起诉讼阻止Aetna 和Humana两家企业的合并，此前兼并交易正等待通过伊利诺伊州、爱荷华州、肯塔基州、北卡罗来纳州和其他州监管机构的例行批准。


In fact, Ohio Governor John Kasich’s Department of Insurance approved the merger in May, and then kept its decision secret for more than a month.	事实上，俄亥俄州州长约翰·卡西奇的保险部5月就批准了这次合并，但却过了一个多月才公开这项决策。


Simple partisanship helps to explain why some states want to push these mergers through.	单纯的党派偏见有助于解释为什么某些州希望上述合并能获得通过。


Republicans aren’t eager to ensure the proper functioning of a major reform enacted by a Democratic administration.	共和党人不愿看到民主党政府的主要改革能够顺利进行。


They conveniently forget that the ACA’s central features – an individual mandate to purchase health insurance and the establishment of health-insurance exchanges – were conceived by the conservative Heritage Foundation and originally implemented by Mitt Romney when he was the Republican governor of Massachusetts in the mid-2000s.	他们毫不费力地忘记了ACA的核心职能——受个人委托购买医疗保险并设立医疗保险的交易场所——上述职能由保守的传统基金会提出构想，并于2000年中由马萨诸塞州共和党州长罗姆尼率先实施。


Another explanation for the momentum behind health-insurer mergers is lobbying.	支持医疗保险企业兼并势头的另一个主要原因是游说。


Industry lobbyists maintain a social affinity with regulators and politicians, with whom they once worked in government or the private sector, and whom they still see on the cocktail-party circuit in Washington, DC, and state capitals.	业内游说者与监管机构和政界人士保持着密切的社交关系，他们此前曾��这些监管者在政府或私营行业中共过事，并且仍在华盛顿和州首府的鸡尾酒会上频繁接触。


They ply their targets with plausible-sounding arguments, talking points, and suggestions that campaign or “super-PAC” contributions will find their way to politicians whose policies reward discrete, organized interests, even if they are very bad for America’s amorphous and unorganized consumers.	他们用冠冕堂皇的理由、谈话要点和建议来掩盖自己的目的，所鼓吹的“超级政治委员会”献金将以特定的方式提供给那些偏袒分散、有组织利益的政客，而是否伤及美国无组织消费者的利益不属于他们考虑的范畴。


So, on one side of the divide we have the major health insurers, which all maintain well-funded, national lobbying operations.	因此在分歧的一面我们有大型医疗保险企业，他们都积极开展资金来源充裕的全国性游说活动。


On the other side, at least for the past nine months, we’ve had the younger of us, Michael DeLong, serving as the Director of the Coalition to Protect Patient Choice (CPPC), funded by the Service Employees International Union to collects facts and figures about health-insurer mergers for state and local consumer groups.	另一方面，至少在过去九个月中，我们由年轻的迈克尔·德隆来担任保护患者选择联盟（CPPC）的主任职务。 该组织的资金来源于服务业雇员国际工会，承担着为各州和地方消费者团体搜集有关医疗险企兼并的数据与事实的工作。


If states hold public hearings to determine whether health-insurer mergers are warranted and serve the public interest, these groups can submit comments and possibly testify.	如果各州组织公开听证会确定医疗保险企业兼并是否理由充分且服务公众利益，上述团体可以提出意见并可能担负起作证的职责。


State and local consumer groups nationwide have been very worried about health-insurer monopolization.	全国各州及地方消费团体一直对医疗保险企业的垄断化倾向表现出深深的担忧。


But they are often underfunded and ill equipped to assess the likely consequences of mergers, and to make valid technocratic arguments against them.	但他们往往资金不足且无力评估兼并可能的后果，也无力提出有效的专家技术论据来对兼并提案加以反驳。


The CPPC, too, is operating on a shoestring budget, and it is fighting an uphill battle.	保护患者选择联盟（CPPC）同样经费捉襟见肘，但却要完成非常艰巨的任务。


It has submitted comments on health-insurer mergers for proceedings in California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin; it has testified at hearings in California, Delaware, Florida, Missouri, New York, Virginia, and Wisconsin; and it has armed consumer groups and unions with relevant facts and figures.	它已就医疗保险企业兼并议案向加利福尼亚州、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、伊利诺伊州、爱荷华州、印第安纳州、密苏里州、纽约州、俄亥俄州、弗吉尼亚州和威斯康星州的法律诉讼提交了评议报告； 它还在加利福尼亚州、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、密苏里州、纽约州、弗吉尼亚州和威斯康星州承担了作证工作；


Despite all this activity, it is being massively outgunned.	它用相关事实和数据武装了消费者团体和工会机构。 虽然成功完成了大量工作，但它在对抗利益集团时实力仍严重不足。


In one of the worst pieces ever to appear in the Washington Post, its Op-Ed columnist Robert Samuelson claimed that disputes among lobbyists in America today take place on a level playing field.	在华盛顿邮报有史以来刊登的最糟糕的一篇文章中，其社论版专栏作者罗伯特·萨缪尔森称今天美国说客之争所处的竞争环境是公平的。 “如果有钱人势力强大，他们交的税会低很多。


“If the rich were all powerful, their taxes would be much lower,” he wrote.	”他还写道，“穷人和中产阶级都具备强大的宣传力量。


“The poor and middle class do have powerful advocates.	比如美国退休人员协会；


To name three: AARP for retirees; the AFL-CIO for unionized workers; the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities [CBPP] for the poor.”	美国劳工总会与产业劳工联合会； 以及贫困人群预算及政策优先中心 [CBPP] 。


The AARP is surely a powerful advocate: its members’ concerns – or at least the AARP’s version of those concerns – are often taken into account at the highest levels of government.	美国退休人员协会无疑是实力强劲的倡导者：其成员的关注——至少是该协会版本的成员关注——往往能够抵达政府最高层。


But Samuelson anachronistically treats the AFL-CIO as if it were still the powerhouse that it was in the 1950s; and his suggestion that the CBPP has the same degree of legislative influence as Anthem, Cigna, Aetna, and Humana is laughable to any unbiased observer, despite the admirable work it does.	但萨缪尔森脱离时代地认为美国劳工总会与产业劳工联合会仍然能起到20世纪50年代那样强大的作用； 而尽管贫困人群中心所完成的工作令人敬佩，但他提出该中心与Anthem、Cigna、Aetna和Humana等大型险企有同样的立法影响力的观点在任何不带偏见的观察者看来都是可笑的。


The CPPC has risen to the challenge and provided a worthwhile service, by bringing past consumer-protection violations and noncompliance issues to health-insurance regulators who are willing to listen.	保护患者选择联盟勇敢面对挑战并提供有价值的服务，将过往的消费者保护侵权案例和违规问题提供给愿意倾听的医疗保险监管机构。


But all of us who want to put consumers before corporations could have used more manpower and background information from the beginning.	但希望将消费者利益置于企业利益之上的所有人从一开始就应当获取更多背景信息和增加人手。


When many state and local consumer groups lack even one full-time staff member who is familiar with antitrust issues, we’re a long way from properly functioning democracy.	当许多州及地方消费者团体甚至找不到一名熟悉反垄断问题的全职员工，我们距离运行顺畅的民主制度还有很长的路要走。


Now that the Justice Department has stepped in, we can only hope that this story will have a happy ending, and that the courts will recognize that these mergers are anticompetitive and immensely harmful to consumers.	现在司法部门已经介入，我们只能希望故事有一个圆满的结果，希望法院能够意识到这些兼并不利于竞争并能在极大程度上危害消费者。


American Wellbeing Since 1979	1979 年以来的美国人福利


BERKELEY – The story goes like this: Since 1979 – the peak of the last business cycle before the inauguration of Ronald Reagan as President – economic growth in the United States has been overwhelmingly a rich-only phenomenon.	伯克利—故事是这样的：1979年以来——也就是罗纳德·里根宣誓就任总统之前的最后一个商业周期以来——美国经济增长一直是富人独享的现象。


Real (inflation-adjusted) wages, incomes, and living standards for America’s poor and middle-class households are at best only trivially higher.	美国穷人和中产阶级家庭的真实（经通胀调整的）工资、收入和生活水平的增加微乎其微。


While annual real GDP per capita has grown 72%, from $29,000 to $50,000 (in 2009 prices), almost all of this growth has gone to those who now occupy the highest tier of the US income distribution.	尽管年真实人均GDP增长了72%，从29,999美元增加到50,000美元（用2009年物价衡量），这一增幅几乎全部都流向了美国收入分配顶层人群。


All of this is true, but there are a few important caveats.	这些都是真事，但需要做一些重要的警告。


One is found in the Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, published by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last year.	其中之一见美国国会预算办公室（CBO）去年发布的《家庭收入和联邦税负分布》（Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes）。


After-tax real income for the lowest quintile of US households was 49% higher in 2010 than in 1979, growing at an average rate of 1.3% annually.	2010年，美国收入最低的五分之一家庭的真实税后收入比1979年高了49%，平均每年增长1. 3%。


After-tax income for the middle three quintiles in 2010 was 40% higher – equivalent to 1.1% average annual growth.	中间五分之三家庭税后收入增加了40%——相当于平均每年增长1. 1%。


To be sure, households in the 81st to 99th percentiles gained 64% in after-tax income, with the top 1% up by 201%, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.6% – far ahead of any other income group.	81—99百分位的家庭税后收入提高了64%，而最顶尖1%家庭提高了201%，即平均年增长率为3. 6%，比其他所有收入群体都要快。


And, by now, with the recovery concentrated among the rich as well, the top 1% of Americans are highly likely to be approaching a cumulative 300% gain since 1979.	而如今的经济复苏也主要集中在富人身上，最顶尖1%美国人自1979年以来的累计收入增长可能快要达到300%了。


But real income gains of 1.3% per year for the middle quintiles and 1.1% for the bottom are not exactly chopped liver, are they?	但中产阶级真实收入每年只增加1. 3%，低层只增加1.


The gap with 1.6% average annual growth rate for per capita GDP is small, isn’t it?	1%，差距看起来并不大吧？ 人均GDP平均年增长率为1.


Well, yes and no.	好吧，可以说是，也可以说不是。


An optimist (or an apologist) could argue that, though market income has indeed become grossly more unequal since 1979, with the slots in the bottom half of the income distribution losing absolute ground in real income, and with taxation becoming less progressive, welfare-state growth substantially moderated this increase in inequality.	乐观者（或辩护者）会说，自1979年以来，尽管市场收入确实变得日益不平等，收入分配下半段的人群占真实收入的绝对比重节节败退，税收的累进性质也变得日益模糊，但福利国家的增长在很大程度上缓和了不平等性的加剧。


But when one looks at the 1.3% annual growth rate of after-tax real income that the CBO calculates for the bottom quintile, 0.9 percentage points comes from the growth of the health-care financing programs Medicare, Medicaid, and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.	但你可以看看CBO对最底层五分之一人群真实税后收入年增长率（1. 3%）的分解。


The CBO counts all of that growth as an increase in poor US households’ after-tax real income.	0. 9个百分点来自医疗保险（Medicare）、医疗补助（Medicaid）和州学生医保计划（State Children’s Health Insurance Program）的增加。


But that is not money that America’s poor can spend, so some downward adjustment should be applied.	CBO将这些计划的增加全部计为美国穷人家庭真实税后收入的增长。 但美国穷人无法花这笔钱，因此在计算的时候应该打个折扣。


Moreover, only half of those expenditures show up as more health care received by program beneficiaries; the other half flow into the general US health-care financing system and cover care that was previously uncompensated.	此外，这些支出中只有一半能成为这些计划受益人所获得的医疗服务的增加； 另一半流入了美国医药费融资系统，用于覆盖此前没有偿付的医药费。


And America’s health-care financing system is uniquely inefficient: other OECD countries get more in terms of health and healthcare services from every dollar they spend than America gets from every $2 it spends.	美国医药费融资系统以效率低下闻名：其他经合组织国家国民从单位支出中所获得的健康和医疗服务比美国多出一倍有余。


As a result, a better estimate of the contribution of expanded US public health-care programs to the material wellbeing of America’s poor is just 0.2 percentage points per year.	因此，美国公共医保计划扩张对美国穷人实际福利的贡献也许只有每年0. 2个百分点。


Hence the necessity of something like the individual health-insurance mandate of the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), or of biting the bullet and adopting a single-payer system for financing health care.	因此2010年患者保护和平价医疗法（Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act，即“奥巴马医保”）等强制性个人医疗保险十分必要，要不然就得咬紧牙关采取单一支付的医疗融资系统了。


Either way, America needs to gets something comparable to other OECD countries’ value out of its enormous health-care expenditures.	无论如何，美国的庞大医疗支出价值需要与其他经合组织国家靠拢。


Frankly, I am of two minds on the relationship between growing government health-care financing programs and inequality.	坦白说，我对政府医疗融资计划的怎张和不平等性之间的关系的看法是互相矛盾的。


On odd days, my bottom line is that material wellbeing since 1979 has grown at 0.5% per year for America’s poor, compared to 4% per year for America’s rich (and 6% per year for its super-rich).	一方面，我的基本观点是1979年以来，美国穷人实际福利年增长率为0. 5%，而美国富人为4%（超级富人更是高达6%）。


This is because most of the expansion is not the equivalent of a greater income for America’s poor in any reasonable sense, and because America gets relatively little value for its health-care financing.	这是因为扩张的大部分并不等同于美国穷人收入的增加，也因为美国的医疗融资价值相对低下。


On even days, however, my bottom line is very different.	但是，另一方面，我的基本观点与此大不相同。


America’s poor in 1979 lagged so far behind normal OECD social democracies in terms of health and health care that even though each extra dollar produced only $0.25 of real health-care services, that $0.25 was worth about one dollar to the poor in terms of material wellbeing.	1979年时，美国穷人在健康和医疗方面与普通经合组织社会民主国家差距巨大，即使每增加1美元支出只产生0. 25美元的实际医疗服务，这0.


On this reading, the expansion of America’s health-care programs has kept the properly measured material wellbeing of its poor on an upward path since 1979 at a rate not much less than that of real per capita GDP.	照此看，自1979年以来，美国医疗计划的扩张使得合理计量的实际穷人福利增长并不比真实人居GDP慢多少。


But the health-care coverage and financing gaps that existed in America in 1979 made it a much more unequal place than the income-distribution data showed.	但1979年时美国所存在的医疗覆盖和融资差距意味着其不平等程度远比收入分布数据所表明的严重。


The Great Democracies’ New Harmony	民主大国的新和谐


CAMBRIDGE – When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited US President Barack Obama to attend his country’s Republic Day ceremonies earlier this year, it signaled an important change in relations between the world’s two biggest democracies.	美国剑桥—今年早些时候，印度总理莫迪邀请美国总统奥巴马出席印度共和日（Republic Day）纪念时，这标志着全世界最大两个民主国家关系的重要变化。


Ever since the 1990s, three American administrations have tried to improve bilateral relations, with mixed results.	自20世纪90年代以来，三界美国政府都试图改善双边关系，结果喜忧参半。


While annual trade between the countries has soared during this period, from $20 billion to more than $100 billion, annual US-China trade is worth six times more, and the political relationship has had ups and downs.	在此期间，两国年贸易量急剧增长，从200亿美元增加到1,000多亿美元，但中美年贸易量比印美年贸易量高出五倍多； 此外，政治关系也有起有落。


The two countries have a long history of confusing each other.	两国之间彼此困惑的历史由来已久。


By definition, any alliance with a superpower is unequal; so efforts to establish close ties with the United States have long run up against India’s tradition of strategic autonomy.	顾名思义，与超级大国结盟永远是不平等的，因此，从长期看，与美国建立紧密关系的努力对于印度的战略自主传统不利。


But Americans do not view democratic India as a threat.	但美国并不把民主的印度视为威胁。


On the contrary, India’s success is an important US interest, and several factors promise a brighter future for the bilateral relationship.	相反，印度的成功是美国的一项重要利益，多个因素表明美印双边关系可以拥有更光明的未来。


The most important factor is the acceleration in India’s economic growth, which the International Monetary Fund projects will exceed 7.5% through 2020.	最重要的因素是印度经济增长加速，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计到2020年将超过7. 5%。


For decades, India suffered from what some called the “Hindu rate of economic growth”: a little more than 1% per year.	几十年来，印度饱受一些人所谓的“印度经济增长率”（每年只有1%略高）的困扰。


It might more properly have been called a 1930s British socialist rate of growth.	也许更合适的叫法应该是20世纪30年代英国社会主义增长率。


After independence in 1947, India adopted an inward-looking planning system that focused on heavy industry.	自1947年独立以来，印度采取了以重工业为重点的内向的计划体系。


Market-oriented reforms in the early 1990s changed that pattern, and annual growth accelerated to 7% under the Congress party, before slumping to 5%.	20世纪90年代初的市场改革改变了这一模式，在国大党的领导下，年增长率加速至7%，随后滑落到5%。


Since the 2014 general election brought Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party to power, the government has reversed the slowdown.	2014年大选后，莫迪的印度人民党（Bharatiya Janata Party）上台执政，他的政府扭转了增长减速。


And prospects for continued growth are strong.	继续增长的前景十分光明。


India has an emerging middle class of several hundred million, and English is an official language spoken by some 50 to 100 million.	印度拥有数亿人规模的新兴中产阶级，有5,000万到1亿印度人说作为官方语言的英语。


Building on that base, Indian information industries are able to play a major global role.	在此基础上，印度信息产业能够扮演重要的全球角色。


Moreover, with a population of 1.2 billion people, India is four times larger than the US, and likely to surpass China by 2025.	此外，拥有12亿人口的印度比美国大四倍，并有望在2025年超过中国。


Its sheer scale will be increasingly important not only to the global economy, but also to balancing China’s influence in Asia and managing global issues such as climate change, public health, and cyber security.	如此大规模不但对全球经济日益重要，也日益有利于制衡中国在亚洲的影响力以及管理气候变化、公共卫生和网络安全等全球性问题。


India also has significant military power, with an estimated 90-100 nuclear weapons, intermediate-range missiles, 1.3 million military personnel, and annual military expenditure of nearly $50 billion (3% of the world total).	印度还拥有强大的军力，核武器数量估计在90—100枚，还有中程导弹、130万军人，每年军事开支近500亿美元（占世界总量的3%）。


And, in terms of soft power, India has an established democracy, an influential diaspora, and a vibrant popular culture with transnational influence.	此外，从软实力角度看，印度是老牌民主国家，拥有颇具影响力的侨民群体，其活力四射的流行文化也具有跨国影响力。


Bollywood produces more films every year than any other country, out-competing Hollywood in parts of Asia and the Middle East.	宝莱坞每年产出的电影数量比任何其他国家都要多，在亚洲和中东的影响力不下好莱坞。


But one should not underestimate India’s problems.	但我们也不可低估印度的问题。


Population alone is not a source of power unless those human resources are developed, and India has lagged well behind China in terms of literacy and economic growth.	光靠人口无法构成实力源泉，除非人力资源得到开发，而在识字率和经济增长方面，印度远远落后于中国。


Despite its progress, around a third of India’s population lives in conditions of acute poverty, making the country home to a third of the world’s poor.	尽管取得了一些进步，但大约三分之一印度人口生活在极端贫困条件下，全世界三分之一的穷人生活在印度。


India’s $2 trillion GDP is only a fifth of China’s $10 trillion, and a ninth of America’s $17.5 trillion (measured at market exchange rates).	印度GDP为2万亿美元，只是中国（10万亿美元）的五分之一和美国（17. 5万亿美元）的九分之一（按市场汇率衡量）。


Likewise, India’s annual per capita income of $1,760 is just one-fifth that of China.	类似地，印度年人均收入为1,760美元，只有中国的五分之一。


Even more striking, while 95% of the Chinese population is literate, the proportion for India is only 74% – and only 65% for women.	更令人惊讶的是，95%的中国人��字，而印度的这一比例只有74%——女性更是只有65%。


A symptom of this problem is India’s poor performance in international comparisons of universities, with none ranked among the world’s top 100.	这一问题的一个症候便是印度在国际大学排行榜上表现拙劣，没有一家跻身世界100强。


India’s high-tech exports are only 5% of its total exports compared to 30% for China.	印度的高科技出口只占出口总量的5%，而中国占30%。


India is unlikely to develop the power to become a global challenger to the US in the first half of this century.	在本世纪上半叶，印度没有希望发展出能成为美国的全球挑战者的实力。


Indeed, even in terms of soft power, a recent study by the Portland Consultancy in London placed India outside the top 30 countries.	事实上，即使从软实力角度，伦敦波特兰咨询公司（Portland Consultancy）的最新研究也将印度排在全球30强之外。


China ranked 30th, and the US came in third, behind the United Kingdom and Germany.	中国排名第30，美国则位居第三，次于英国和德国。


Nonetheless, India has considerable assets that already affect the balance of power in Asia.	尽管如此，印度拥有可观的资产，并已经影响到亚洲的实力平衡。


While India and China signed agreements in 1993 and 1996 that promised a peaceful settlement of the border dispute that led them to war in l962, the issue has heated up again, following Chinese actions in recent years.	印度和中国在1993年和1996年签署协定，承诺和平解决1962年两国开战的边界纠纷。 但如今，由于近几年来中国的行为，该问题死灰复燃。


India and China are fellow members of the BRICS (along with Brazil, Russia, and South Africa).	印度和中国都是金砖国家成员（此外还有巴西、俄罗斯和南非）。


But cooperation within that caucus is limited.	但该集团内部的合作十分有限。


While Indian officials are often discreet in public about relations with China, and wisely want bilateral trade and investment to grow, their security concerns remain acute.	印度官员在公开场合对中印关系往往十分谨慎，并明智地希望双边贸易和投资有所增加，但他们的安全顾虑仍十分尖锐。


As part of the group of Asian countries that will tend to balance China, India has already begun to strengthen its diplomatic relations with Japan.	作为试图制衡中国的亚洲国家集团的一员，印度已开始增强其与日本的外交关系。


It would be a mistake to cast the prospects for an improved US-India relationship solely in terms of China’s rising power.	将美印关系的改善仅仅置于中国实力崛起的背景下考察是一个错误。


Indian economic success is an American interest on its own.	印度的经济成功本身就符合美国的利益。


So is the open approach taken by India and Brazil on issues such as governance of the Internet, at a time when Russia and China are seeking more authoritarian control.	印度和巴西对互联网治理持开放态度也是如此，而俄罗斯和中国寻求更加极权的互联网控制。


No one should expect an Indian-American alliance any time soon, given historical Indian public opinion.	考虑到历史上的印度公共观点，不必期望印度和美国在短时间内结盟。


But one can predict a relationship in the coming years that will be both sui generis and stronger.	但可以预期，在未来几年中，美印关系将是独特的，并日益强化。


A Marshall Plan for the United States	面向美国的马歇尔计划


NEW YORK – When a major highway bridge in California collapsed last month, the impact on the entire southwestern United States once again highlighted the country’s serious infrastructure problem.	纽约—上个月，加州一座大型高速公路桥梁垮塌，该事件对整个美西南地区造成的影响凸显出美国严重的基础设施问题。


Indeed, in a sense, the world’s largest economy is falling apart.	事实上，从某种程度上说，世界最大经济体正在落后。


Ideological aversion to public-sector investment, together with the endemic short-term thinking of those who write budgets, has kept spending on roads, airports, railways, telecommunication networks, and power generation at levels far below what is needed.	在思想上厌恶公共部门投资，加上预算制定者长期以来的短视思维，导致公路、机场、铁路、通讯网络和发电方面的投资远低于需要的水平。


And yet the problem can no longer be ignored.	而如今，这一问题已不容继续忽视。


If the US does not act quickly to provide its fragile economic recovery with a solid foundation of modern infrastructure, it could find itself sinking slowly back into stagnation.	如果美国不迅速行动起来，为其脆弱的经济复苏提供坚实的现代基础设施，就会慢慢退回停滞。


It seems self-evident that a developed economy requires adequate, ongoing investment in public goods.	发达经济体需要对公共品进行足够的持续投资，这应该是不言自明的。


But the state of infrastructure in the US suggests that many decision-makers do not share this view.	但美国的基础设施状况表明许多决策者并不同意这一观点。


A 2013 report by the American Society of Civil Engineers gave the US a pathetic overall grade of D+ for its infrastructure.	美国土木工程师协会（American Society of Civil Engineers）的一份2013年报告给美国基础设施的总体评分是D+。


The report cited numerous state-specific shortcomings, including Michigan’s “88 high-hazard dams and 1,298 structurally deficient bridges” and the “$44.5 billion needed to upgrade drinking-water systems” in California.	该报告列举了大量各州的不足，包括密歇根州的“88座高危大坝和1,298座存在结构缺陷的挑梁”、加州“需要445亿美元升级饮用水系统”等。


The report concludes that a $3.6 trillion investment (roughly one-fifth of the country’s annual GDP) will be needed by 2020 to boost the quality of US infrastructure by addressing the “significant backlog of overdue maintenance [and the] pressing need for modernization.”	报告认为，要想通过解决“大量积压的超期维修工作[以及]现代化的紧迫需求”提升美国基础设施的质量，到2020年将需要3. 6万亿美元（大约相当于美国年GDP的五分之一）。


Otherwise, the country’s crumbling infrastructure will drag down economic growth for years to come.	否则，美国拙劣的基础设施将拖累经济增长多年。


America’s desperate need for modern infrastructure has come, in some ways, at a fortuitous moment.	从某种程度上讲，美国现在急切地需要现代基础设施是一件幸事。


At a time when the economic recovery remains fragile, a publicly financed infrastructure program could meaningfully transform the prospects of US workers, providing new employment opportunities for low and un-skilled labor.	在经济复苏仍然不稳定时，公共融资的基础设施计划能够有效改变美国工人的前景，为低技能和无技能劳动力提供新的就业机会。


Meanwhile, scaling up infrastructure spending could provide an often-overlooked opportunity for long-term institutional investors.	与此同时，扩大基础设施支出能够为长期机构投资者提供常常被忽视的机会。


Pension funds, insurance companies, and mutual funds in the US manage combined assets totaling roughly $30 trillion, and they have been struggling to find investments that match their long-term obligations.	在美国，退休基金、保险公司和共同基金的资产管理总额高达30万美元，它们一直在苦苦寻找契合其长期使命的投资。


Persistently low interest rates have been particularly challenging for pension funds, which face rising liabilities (calculated on a discounted basis).	持久低利率对退休基金尤其不利，它们面临着日益增加的负债（贴现值）。


A large-scale program to reboot America’s crumbling infrastructure would go a long way toward addressing this gap between assets and liabilities, providing pension funds with investments with long time horizons (and thus guaranteeing the incomes of tomorrow’s retirees) while leveraging private capital for the public good.	重振美国拙劣的设施的大计划极有利于解决这一资产和负债之间的缺口，为退休基金提供长期投资机会（从而确保未来退休者的收入），同时撬动私人资本投资公共品。


In fact, US pension funds are already investing in infrastructure, but they are doing so in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.	事实上，美国退休基金已经开始投资基础设施，但投资的是加拿大、澳大利亚、英国和荷兰的基础设施。


Sadly, ideological objections and partisan politics are likely to strew obstacles in the path of any effort to modernize America’s infrastructure and create such opportunities at home.	悲哀的是，思想上的反对和党派政治可能对现代化美国基础设施、在国内创造这些机会的努力制造障碍。


Public-sector investment invariably rekindles the age-old struggle between those who insist that government should stay out of efforts to create jobs and those who believe that part of government’s role is to put underutilized human resources to work.	公共部门投资必然会重新点燃古老的争论——一些人坚持政府不应该参与创造就业活动，另一些人相信让未被利用起来的人力资源去工作也是政府角色的一部分。


One way to avoid this bottleneck would be for US President Barack Obama to establish a bipartisan Infrastructure Commission tasked with finding solutions to the problem.	一种突破这一瓶颈的方式是由美国总统奥巴马成立一个跨党派的基础设施委员会，由它来寻找这一问题的解决办法。


This would operate much like the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, established in 2010 to address America’s fiscal challenges, or the military-base-closing commissions of the 1980s and 1990s.	其操作可以类似于2010年为了解决美国财政挑战而成立的跨党派的国家财政责任和改革委员会（National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform），或者20世纪八九十年代的军事基地关闭委员会（military-base-closing commissions）。


By splitting the responsibility between the country’s two main parties, the commission would free its members from the pressures of day-to-day politics and allow them to concentrate on the health of the economy.	基础设施委员会将在美国两大党之间分割责任，其委员可以因此摆脱日常政治的压力，集中精力关注经济的健康。


Congress would then hold an up-or-down vote on the commission’s recommendations.	委员会的建议将由国会进行肯定或否定表决。


Infrastructure has long been acknowledged as fundamental to a country’s economic prospects.	长期以来，人们一直认为基础设施是一国经济前景的基础。


In neglecting the necessary investments, the US has put itself on a precarious path, one that could lead to stagnation and decline, which would be difficult to reverse.	美国由于忽视了必要的基础设施投资而走上了一条可能导致停滞和衰落的危险的道路，这条道路一旦走上就很难回头。


There is little reason for US policymakers to accept this fate.	美国决策者没有理由束手认命。


Low interest rates, the dollar’s continuing role as the world’s main reserve currency, and the capacity of the public sector to increase spending make the case for higher infrastructure spending compelling.	低利率、美元仍保持世界主要储备货币地位，以及公共部门有增加支出的能力，这些条件让提高基础设施支出底气十足。


In the twentieth century, the US government spent billions of dollars to rebuild the European economy.	在二十世纪，美国政府耗资数十亿美元重建欧洲经济。


Its project for the first half of this century should be to do the same at home.	本世纪上半叶，美国应该对自己做同样的事。


Using Antibiotics Wisely	明智地使用抗生素


LONDON – To solve the problem of antimicrobial resistance, the world needs not only new drugs, but also new behavior – by all seven billion of us.	伦敦—为了解决耐药性问题，世界不但需要新药，也需要新行为——七十亿人的新行为。


Because of the misuse and overuse of antibiotics, common infections such as pneumonia and tuberculosis are becoming increasingly resistant to existing treatments; in some cases, they have become completely immune.	由于抗生素的错用和滥用，已有治疗手段越来越难以治愈肺炎和结核病等常见传染病； 一些病例完全无法治愈。


The threat is global in scale.	这是一个全球性威胁。


According to the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, which I chair, drug-resistant infections kill at least 700,000 people every year.	据由我担任主席的抗耐药性评估（Review on Antimicrobial Resistance）的数据，耐药性传染病每年至少杀死700,000人。


By 2050, if nothing is done to address the problem, some ten million people a year could be dying from maladies that were once treatable.	到2050年，如果我们不为这一个问题做些什么，每年都将有一千万人死于曾经可以治愈的疾病。


Developing new drugs is an important approach in a coordinated response to fight antimicrobial resistance.	开发新药是对抗耐药性综合响应的一个重要的方法。


But it will not be enough.	但光靠开发新药是不够的。


We also need to reduce our demand for antibiotics and understand that they can sometimes do more harm than good.	我们还需要降低对抗生素的需求，明白抗生素有时弊大于利。


According to one estimate, nearly half of all prescriptions for antibiotics in the United States are inappropriate or unneeded.	据一项估算，美国近一半的抗生素处方是不恰当或不必要的。


So the steep rise in antibiotic resistance is hardly surprising.	因此，耐药性的急剧增强并不令人奇怪。


Improving people’s understanding of the problem will be crucial to reversing this trend.	增加人们对这一问题的理解是扭转这一趋势的关键。


Most people are either completely oblivious to antimicrobial resistance or incorrectly believe that it is an individual’s body that becomes drug resistant – not the bacteria itself.	大部分人要么完全不关注耐药性，要么错误地认为发生耐药性的是个体的身体——而不是细菌本身。


A better understanding of when to use antibiotics, and how to use them effectively, will help people use them responsibly.	更好地理解何时使用抗生素、如何有效地使用抗生素有助于人们负责地使用抗生素。


We need campaigns like the one introduced by the Australian charity NPS MedicineWise, which held a competition for videos promoting public awareness of antibiotic use.	我们需要类似于澳大利亚慈善机构NPS MedicineWise所引入的方案。 NPS MedicineWise举办了一次增加公众抗生素用途知识的视频竞赛。


The result was a series of short, witty films explaining simply and humorously how antibiotics can be misused.	结果产生了一系列幽默的短片，诙谐地解释了抗生素是如何被错用的。


These types of efforts are needed worldwide, particularly in the largest and most rapidly growing countries.	这些做法全世界都需要，特别是在最大的、增长最快的国家。


The BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – consume fewer antibiotics per person than the US.	金砖国家——巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国——人均抗生素使用量不及美国。


But they are rapidly catching up as the rate of antibiotics consumption outstrips the pace of economic growth.	但它们正在快速赶超，因为抗生素消费率的增加比经济增长更快。


Pessimists will claim that behaviors are hard to change, especially when doing so depends on explaining the science of germs to uneducated audiences. That line of thinking brings to mind one of the most abhorrent arguments against making HIV medicines affordable for patients in lower-income countries: People in Africa have no watches, so they will not be able to take their antiretroviral medicine three times a day.	悲观者会说，行为难以改变，特别是行为的改变取需要依赖向教育程度低下的受众解释科学道理时���这一思维诞生过让阻止低收入国家的患者也能用得起HIV药物的最邪恶的观点：非洲人没有手表，因此无法一日三次服用抗逆转录药物。


The truth, as researchers have shown, is that Africans are perfectly capable of reliably adhering to antiretroviral therapy – often more so than North Americans.	研究者证明，真相是非洲人完全有能力可靠地遵守抗逆转录疗法——甚至比北美做得更好。


Indeed, in July, UNAIDS announced that the goal of having 15 million people on life-saving HIV treatment by the end 2015 was met ahead of schedule.	事实上，7月联合国艾滋病计划署宣布，在2015年前让1,500万人获得救命的HIV治疗的目标已经提前实现。


Every year on December 1, World Aids Day highlights the issue and raises global awareness.	每年的12月1日是世界艾滋病日，它提醒我们这一问题，并激发全球关注。


We need a similar effort to address the perils of antimicrobial resistance.	我们需要以同样的方法应对耐药性风险。


European Antibiotic Awareness Day, on November 18, is a good start; but we must also find new, creative ways to spread the message.	欧洲将11月8日定为认识耐药性日，这是一个良好的开端； 但我们还必须找到新的创新性方法传播这一知识。


Technological innovation brings unprecedented opportunities to reach people directly.	技术创新带来了前所未有的直接将知识传播给人们的机会。


Roughly 95% of Chinese and 75% of Indians use mobile phones regularly.	大约95%的中国人和75%的印度人日常使用手机。


In areas where literacy rates are high, sending text messages can be a rapid and effective way to spread a message.	在识字率较高的地区，发送文字短信是传播信息的快速高效的方法。


Research in Europe and the US shows that 90% of text messages are read within three minutes of being received.	欧洲和美国的研究表明90%的文字短信在收到3分钟内被阅读。


Social media are another powerful and relatively cheap tool to reach millions of people.	社交媒体是另一个有力且相对廉价的能接触数百万人的工具。


In China – home to the world’s largest Internet base, with 641 million users – 80% of doctors use smartphones for professional purposes, including by providing medical advice via social media, with some practitioners attracting millions of followers.	在中国——这里有全世界最大的互联网用户群体，高达6. 41亿人——80%的医生将智能手机用于职业目的，包括通过社交媒体提供医疗建议，一些人吸引了数百万的关注者。


Enlisting these medical social-media superstars to educate the public on the urgency of antimicrobial resistance is an exciting opportunity.	招募这些社交媒体超级明星来教育公众耐药性问题的紧迫性是一个现成的机会。


An anti-smoking social-media campaign led by the World Health Organization provides another model that could be followed.	世界卫生组织所领导的反吸烟社交媒体运动 提供了另一个可以效仿的榜样。


Posts by Chinese celebrities were used to increase awareness of a law banning smoking in indoor public spaces.	中国名人的转发被用来增加人们支持立法禁止公共场所室内吸烟的意识。


In some parts of the world, the best way to combat drug resistance will be to encourage changes in behavior that reduce the spread of infections and minimize the need for treatment.	在世界的一些地方，打击耐药性的最佳方法是鼓励行为改变以降低传染病的传播并尽量降低治疗的必要。


Proper hand washing is a great place to start.	正确地洗手是很好的起点。


In India, a clever campaign called SuperAmma used images of people exposed to unsanitary situations to encourage hand washing.	在印度，一个名为SuperAmma的巧妙计划用暴露在不卫生环境下的人的图片鼓励洗手。


The campaign successfully and sustainably increased regular hand washing from 1% of the groups involved to about 30%.	这一计划成功地持续增加了相关人群的定期洗手率，从1%提高到30%左右。


The cost of a global effort to raise awareness of the threat of antimicrobial resistance would be miniscule compared to the amount being spent to develop new drugs and technologies, which in any case will take years to become available.	提高对耐药性威胁的认识的全球方案所需要付出的成本与花在开发新药和新技术的成本比起来只是九牛一毛。 而新药和新技术的开发动辄需要多年时间。


Countries should urgently put in place educational campaigns and begin to change behaviors.	各国应该立刻实施教育计划并开始改变行为。


Together, we can break our bad antibiotic habits.	多管齐下的我们可以改变不良的抗生素喜欢。


The Data-Poor Lives of Adolescents	青少年生活数据不足


SEATTLE – Data can save lives.	西雅图—数据可以拯救生命。


Without it, we wouldn’t know that smoking causes lung cancer and coronary disease, that helmets reduce death rates for motorcycle accidents, and that better education for women improves child survival – and much else.	没有数据，我们就不会知道吸烟引起肺癌和冠心病，不会知道头盔能降低摩托车事故的死亡率，不会知道改善妇女教育状况能增加儿童存活率——这样的例子不胜枚举。


Given the importance of reliable data, collecting it must be a high priority.	可靠的数据无比重要，因此收集数据必须作为重中之重。


One area where data collection is particularly inadequate is adolescent health.	一个数据严重不足的领域是青少年健康。


People aged ten to 24 receive far less attention than other age groups.	10至24岁年龄段所获得的关注远远少于其他年龄段。


More broadly, as the new Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing highlights, global health and social policy largely tends to ignore adolescent health.	更广泛地说，如新的青少年健康和福利柳叶刀委员会（Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing）所强调的，全球健康和社会政策几乎完全忽略了青少年健康。


In many ways, our future depends on the health of our adolescents.	从诸多角度看，我们的未来取决于青少年的健康。


In low- and middle-income countries, there are more adolescents than ever before.	在中低收入国家，青少年的数量比以往任何时候都要多。


And their health today will affect their future wellbeing, shaping their ability to earn a living, produce and raise healthy children, care for aging parents, and lead their societies toward peace and prosperity.	他们现在的健康状况将影响到他们的未来福利，决定他们的生计、生育和抚养健康儿童、照顾老年父母、领导社会走向和平与繁荣的能力。


By enabling governments and others to design effective and targeted health programs for adolescents, data on adolescent health can play a critical role in securing a better future.	关于青少年健康的数据可以让政府和其他机构为亲少年制定有效和有针对性的方案，从而在确保更美好的未来中扮演关键角色。


The first step is to find out where, why, and how many adolescents are dying.	第一步是找出青少年在哪里死亡、为什么死亡以及有多少人死亡。


Myriad surveys conducted in recent decades have aimed specifically to determine death rates among adults and children under the age of five.	近几十年来，众多调查专门针对成人和五岁以下儿童的死亡率。


Yet those in between are not specifically addressed, making it very difficult to track adolescent deaths in countries that lack adequate systems for civil registration and recording of vital statistics.	但介于两者之间的群体没有人专门注意，这导致跟踪缺乏公民登记和重要统计数据公布制度的国家的青少年死亡情况变得十分困难。


To address this shortcoming, donors and governments should fund the development of survey methods to measure adolescent death rates.	要解决这一短缺，出资者和政府应该资助开发衡量青少年死亡率的调查方法。


Questions designed to elicit the needed information could be incorporated into surveys already being conducted regularly in low- and middle-income countries, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys.	可以在已在中低收入国家进行的调查中加入引导所需信息的问题，如人口和健康调查和多指标集类调查。


Of course, we also need data about adolescents during their lives – ideally, data that come from the adolescents directly.	当然，我们也需要青少年整个生命段中的数据——最理想的是直接来自青少年的数据。


As it stands, individuals under the age of 15 are generally excluded from household surveys.	目前，15岁以下个体通常被排除在家庭调查之外。


And while school surveys are conducted in some countries, funding constraints often mean that they are carried out infrequently.	而尽管一些国家进行学校调查，但资金不足常常意味着无法频繁组织。


More problematic, school-based surveys in low- and middle-income countries typically exclude those who are not in school, whether because they dropped out or never enrolled at all.	问题更大的是，在中低收入国家，基于学校的调查通常不包括辍学人群，不管他们是中途辍学还是从未上学。


Governments and donors must therefore also work to develop and carry out targeted surveys of adolescents.	因此，政府和出资者还必须致力于开发和进行定向青少年调查。


Among other things, such surveys should aim to create a clear picture of adolescents’ exposure to avoidable risk factors, such as alcohol and illicit drug use, unsafe sexual behaviors, violence, obesity, physical inactivity, and unhealthy diet.	这些调查的目标应该是厘清青少年的可避免风险因素暴露情况，比如酒精和违禁药物使用、不安全性行为、暴力、肥胖、缺乏运动以及不健康饮食等。


To complement this effort, we must also invest in improving our understanding of how these risk factors – most often studied in connection with early childhood and adulthood – affect adolescents’ health.	要完善这方面的措施，我们还必须投资于理解这些风险因素——最常见的情况是与儿童期和成人期进行衔接研究——如何影响青少年健康。


According to the Global Burden of Disease Study, health risk factors explain at least 50% of the early death and disability of adults aged 50 and over; for young people, the figure drops to 26%.	局全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease Study），健康风险因素解释了至少50%的50岁及以上人群早期死亡和残疾； 对年轻人来说，这一比例只有26%。


More studies are needed to inform health policy and planning adequately.	需要更多的研究为卫生政策和规划提供信息。


The data-collection effort should also include a focus on mental health.	数据收集措施还应该以心理健康为重点。


The Global Burden of Disease Study has estimated that, in 2013, depression was one of the top three causes of adolescent females’ loss of healthy years, and one of the top seven causes of lost healthy years in adolescent males.	全球疾病负担研究估算，2013年抑郁症是青少年女性无法健康生活的前三大因素之一，也是青少年男性无法健康生活的前七大因素之一。


Yet the data on mental health for individuals under the age of 18 are poor, particularly in low-income countries, and what is available is not comparable across countries.	但18岁以下个体心理健康数据十分缺乏，特别是在中低收入国家，而可得数据也无法在国家间进行比较。


It is thus imperative that governments and donors invest in building an expert consensus on how best to measure mental health and implement those methods globally, including in low-resource settings.	因此，一个当务之急是政府和出资者投资于构筑一个关于如何最好地衡量心理健康并在全球实施（包括在资源缺乏环境中）这些方法的专家共识。


Before long, today’s adolescents will be running the world.	要不了多久，今天的青少年就将成为世界的主导者。


If they are to lead it well, they need to be healthy.	要想出色地领导世界，青少年必须健康。


And we need to invest in collecting the data that are so essential to ensuring that they are.	而我们需要投资于收集对确保他们健康至关重要的数据。


Science, Heal Thyself	科学，治好你自己


NEW YORK – Science may be humankind’s greatest success as a species.	纽约—科学也许是人类作为一个物种所取得的最大成功。


Thanks to the scientific revolution that began in the seventeenth century, humans today enjoy instant communication, rapid transportation, a rich and diverse diet, and effective prevention and treatment for once-fatal illnesses.	拜发轫于17世纪的科学革命之功，今天的人类享受着即时通讯、快速交通、丰富而多样的饮食并能有效地预防和治疗曾经致命的疾病。


Moreover, science is humanity’s best hope for addressing such existential threats as climate change, emerging pathogens, extra-terrestrial bolides, and a burgeoning population.	此外，科学也是人类解决诸如气候变化、新病原体、外星火球和激增的污染等生存威胁的最大希望。


But the scientific enterprise is under threat from both external and internal forces.	但科学的大厦经受着内部和外部力量的双重威胁。


Now the scientific community must use its capacity for self-correction – based on new information, discoveries, experiences, and ideas (the stuff of scientific progress for centuries) – to address these threats.	如今科学界必须用其自我修正能力——基于新信息、发现、实验和思想（几个世纪以来的科学进步积累）——解决这些威胁。


A major hindrance to scientific progress is the increasing scarcity of research funding – a trend that has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis.	科学进步的一大妨碍是研究资金的日渐短缺——这一趋势因全球经济危机而被放大了。


Uncertain funding prospects not only discourage scientists from pursuing risky or undirected lines of research that could lead to crucial discoveries; they also make it more difficult to recruit the best and brightest for scientific careers, especially given the extensive training and specialization that such careers require.	不确定的融资前景不但妨碍科学家追求高风险的、间接的、但可能引出关键发现的蹊径； 还令吸引最优秀人才从事科学事业变得更加困难，特别是当科学事业要求大量训练和专业化时。


Furthermore, leaders from across the political spectrum are questioning scientifically-established principles – such as anthropogenic climate change, evolution, and the benefits of vaccination – with no scientific basis.	此外，政治界领袖正在毫无科学根据地质疑科学的基本原理——比如人类导致的气候变化、进化和疫苗的好处。


At best, such statements serve as a distraction from important issues; at worst, they distort public policy.	往好了说，这样的质疑会把注意力从重要问题上移开； 往坏了说，这会扭曲公共政策。


Although such threats are outside of scientists’ direct control, improved communication with political leaders and the public could help to reduce misinformation and bolster confidence in science.	尽管这一威胁处于科学家直接控制范围之外，但改善与政治领袖和公众的沟通有助于减少错误信息、提振对科学的信心。


But the field’s credibility is also being undermined from within, by the growing prevalence of scientific misconduct – reflected in a recent spate of retracted scientific publications – and an increasingly unbalanced scientific workforce that faces perverse incentives.	但科学界的信誉也受到来自内部的破坏——科学不端行为的日渐普遍（比如最近爆出的大量科学著作被收回）和面临不当激励的越来越失衡的科学从业大军。


Although the vast majority of scientists adhere to the highest standards of integrity, the corrosive effects of dishonest or irreproducible research on science’s credibility cannot be ignored.	尽管绝大部分科学家恪守诚信的最高标准，但不诚实和不可复制的研究对科学信誉的腐蚀作用不容忽视。


The problems are rooted in the field’s incentive structure – a winner-take-all system in which grants, prizes, and other rewards go to those who publish first.	问题植根于科学界的激励结构——赢者通吃，奖金、奖状和其他奖励都落到第一个发表成果的人头上。


While this competitive mentality is not new in science – the seventeenth-century mathematicians Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz spent more than a decade fighting bitterly for credit for the discovery of calculus – it has intensified to the point that it is impeding progress.	这一竞争心态在科学界绝非新鲜事——17世纪数学家牛顿和莱布尼茨花了十多年的时间激烈地争夺微积分的发明权——但确实阻碍着进步。


Indeed, scientists today are engaged in a hypercompetitive race for funding and prestigious publications that has disconnected their goals from those of the public that they serve.	事实上，今天的科学家面临着极其激烈的资金和重磅成果发布竞争压力，这把他们的目标与他们所服务���大众的目标割裂开来。


Last year, for example, when C. Glenn Begley and Lee Ellis sought to reproduce 53 “landmark” preclinical cancer studies, they discovered that nearly 90% of the findings could not be reproduced.	比如，去年贝格利（C. Glenn Begley）和埃利斯（Lee Ellis）试图复制53种“划时代”临床癌症研究，他们发现，近九成的发现无法被复制。


While the researchers who originally published those studies may have profited from increased funding and recognition, the patients who need new cancer treatments gained nothing.	最先发表成果的研究者可能已经从资金和知名度的增加中获益，但需要新癌症疗法的换证没有得到任何好处。


Moreover, this winner-take-all system fails to account for the fact that scientific work is largely carried out by research teams rather than individuals.	此外，赢者通吃制度无法体现科学研究大多由团队而非个人完成这一事实。


As a result, the scientific workforce is beginning to resemble a pyramid scheme: unfair, inefficient, and unsustainable.	结果，科学工作者结构体表现为金字塔型：不公平、低效率、难持续。


The incentives associated with the winner-take-all system encourage cheating – ranging from questionable practices and ethical lapses to outright misconduct.	与赢者通吃制度相应的激励鼓励作弊——从可疑行为到有违道德到赤裸裸地舞弊。


This threatens to create a vicious cycle in which misconduct and sloppy research are rewarded, undermining both the scientific process and its credibility.	这可能产生一个恶性循环，舞弊和草率研究受到奖励，既妨碍了科学进步，也破坏了科学的信誉。


The problems are clear.	问题是显而易见的。


But addressing them requires a prudent strategy that accounts for the structural fragility of the scientific enterprise, in which scientists must complete extensive training, regulation can easily stifle creativity, and funding limitations can substantially delay progress.	但纠正问题要求审慎的策略来战胜科学大厦的结构性弱点——科学家必须经过完整的繁重训练，监管容易扼杀创新，以及资金局限可能极大地拖延进程。


Because of this fragility, few countries have been able to establish highly productive scientific enterprises, even though scientific innovation and technological breakthroughs are crucial to a country’s productivity, economic growth, and influence.	由于存在这一弱点，鲜有国家建立起高产的科学界，即使科学创新和技术进步对于一国的生产率、经济增长和影响力来说至关重要。


Given the challenges implicit in establishing and maintaining a robust scientific sector, reform efforts must be undertaken carefully.	由于建立和维持强健科学部门隐含诸多挑战，因此必须谨慎实施改革。


At the same time, the reforms must be comprehensive, addressing methodological, cultural, and structural issues.	与此同时，改革必须是完整的，解决方法论、文化和结构性问题。


Methodological reforms should include revised training requirements that allow for less specialization, together with improved training in probability and statistics.	方法论改革应该包括修订培养要求，允许减少专业化，并辅之以概率和统计训练的强化。


Scientific culture must be reformed to abandon longstanding practices, such as those that determine how credit is assigned.	科学文化必须予以改革，抛弃一些长期存在的行为，比如荣誉的归属决定问题。


And structural reforms aimed at balancing the scientific workforce and stabilizing funding are crucial.	旨在平衡科学工作者上，稳定资金来源的结构性改革也十分关键。


Some reforms should be fairly easy to implement.	一些改革很容易实施。


For example, it would not be difficult to win support for improving education in the ethical aspects of scientific research.	比如，赢得对改善科学研究道德的教育的支持绝非难事。


But other important reforms, such as creating alternatives to the winner-take-all incentive system, will present enormous challenges.	但其他重要改革，比如建立赢者通吃制度的替代方案，将是重大挑战。


An effective reform strategy should employ the tools of science – specifically, data collection and analysis.	有效的改革战略应该利用科学工具——具体而言，即数据收集和分析。


More data are needed to understand workforce imbalances, the peer review system, and how the economics of the scientific enterprise influence scientists’ behavior.	理解科学工作者失衡问题、同行评议制度以及科学界的经济学如何影响科学家行为需要更多的数据。


Science has been studied by sociologists, historians, and philosophers, but rarely by scientists themselves.	研究科学问题的包括社会学家、历史学家和哲学家，但现有科学家本身。


Now, with perverse incentives undermining their credibility and hampering research, scientists must take matters into their own hands.	如今，不当激励在破坏科学家的信誉、束缚研究，科学家必须自己掌握主动。


Applying the scientific method to the problems of science could be scientists’ best hope for regaining public confidence and reinvigorating the quest for transformative discoveries.	把科学方法用于科学的问题是科学家重新赢得公众信心、重新振作革命性发现追求的最佳手段。


India’s Data of Discrimination	印度的歧视数据


NEW DELHI – Last December’s fatal gang rape of a 23-year-old woman in New Delhi triggered an unprecedented public outcry in India.	新德里—去年12月新德里23岁女性惨遭轮奸致死的案件在印度引发了前所未有的公众抗议。


Tens of thousands of citizens took to the streets to demand an end to police indifference to women’s safety, stronger laws, and speedier trials for those charged with crimes against women.	数万公民走上街头，要求结束警察对妇女安全的漠视、强化法律、加速针对女性的犯罪案件的审理。


The protests launched a countrywide movement, spurring nonstop media coverage of women’s issues.	游行触发了一场全国性运动，媒体轮番报道妇女问题。


So, has significant change followed?	那么，这是否引来了重大变化？


Within eight days of the rape, a special commission, led by former Supreme Court Chief Justice J.S. Verma, was established.	强奸案发生八天内就组成了由前最高法院首席大法官维尔马（J. S.


The commission’s roughly 700-page report, completed in only 29 days, urged the government to take swift, far-reaching action.	Verma）牵头的特别委员会。 委员会在29天内起草了一份约700页的报告，敦促政府采取快速、深远的行动。


Among the report’s recommendations were stronger penalties for sex crimes, including harassment; a requirement that police officers report every instance of alleged rape; and broader measures to address pervasive discrimination against women.	报告的建议包括加强性犯罪（包括性骚扰）惩罚、要求警官报告每一起强奸指控以及采取更多措施纠正普遍存在歧视妇女现象。


India’s government responded two weeks later, announcing a new ordinance that not only expands the definition of rape, but also makes behavior such as groping, stalking, trafficking, and voyeurism serious criminal offenses.	印度政府在两周后做出了反应，宣布了一项新法令，不但扩大了强奸的定义，还将猥亵、跟踪、拐卖和窥阴定义为严重刑事犯罪。


But, as the commission’s report highlighted, India does not lack laws intended to deter sexual violence against women.	但是，正如委员会报告所强调的，印度并不缺少旨在遏制针对女性的暴力的法律。


Rather, amid widespread ignorance and apathy, government and law enforcement have lacked the motivation to administer existing laws adequately.	相反，在普遍的愚昧和冷漠中，政府和执法者缺乏动机不折不扣地执行已有法律。


The recent explosion of long-dormant public outrage should be a tipping point, precipitating genuine progress toward a more equal society.	印度已长时间没有爆发过公众示威，因此此次示威或是个触发点，开启印度迈向更公平社会的契机。


But designing effective policies to diminish the obstacles confronting women and girls requires measuring the prevalence of the attitudes and habits that limit their potential.	但设计有效政策扫清妇女和少女所面临的障碍要求测量限制她们潜力的态度的深度和广度。


If the recently enacted laws are to have the intended effect, Indian society must reject discriminatory mindsets and practices.	如果最新出台的法律想要具有预想的效果，印度社会就必须拒绝歧视思维和行为。


Unlike conventional indicators, which capture inequality in outcomes like education and employment, the OECD’s Social Institutions Gender Index (SIGI) evaluates the underlying drivers of such outcomes, comparing factors such as preferential treatment of sons over daughters, violence against women, and restrictions on property rights.	与用教育和就业等显示不平等情况的常规指标不同，经合组织的社会机构性别指数（Social Institutions Gender Index，SIGI）评估这些情况背后的原因，比较诸如男孩女孩区别对待、针对妇女的暴力和产权约束等因素。


According to this metric, in 2012, India ranked 56th out of 86 countries for gender equality, lower than other major emerging markets like Brazil, China, Indonesia, and South Africa.	根据这一指数，2012年印度在性别平等排行榜上位居86个国家的第56位，低于巴西、中国、印尼和南非等其他主要新兴市场国家。


But Indian society, which comprises more than 1.2 billion citizens, is hardly homogeneous.	但12亿多人组成的印度社会是多样化的。


Indeed, India is a complex amalgam of 28 states with widely varying social indicators.	事实上，印度有28个邦，各邦社会指标各不相同。


For example, the nine states that the government has labeled “high focus” account for 62% of India’s maternal deaths and 70% of infant deaths, but contain only 48% of the country’s population.	比如，9个邦的政府被认为需要“高度关注”，它们的人口只占全国人口的48%，但构成了62%的印度孕产妇死亡和70%的婴儿夭折。


Meanwhile, the southern states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh account for roughly 22% of the population, but less than 12% of maternal deaths.	与此同时，南部的喀拉拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦、卡纳塔克邦和安德拉邦占全国人口的22%，但只构成不到12%的孕产妇死亡。


Similarly, while infant deaths account for less than 5% of all deaths in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, more than 20% of babies born in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan (all high-focus states) do not see their first birthday.	类似地，婴儿夭折只占喀拉拉邦和泰米尔纳德邦死亡总数的5%，但在北部的北方邦、中央邦和拉贾斯坦邦（均为高度关注邦）20%的婴儿度不过生命的第一个年头。


So, given the limited value of countrywide generalizations, India’s leaders must focus on the differences between states in order to devise targeted policies.	因此，将全印度一般化价值有限，印度领导人必须专注于各邦的不同情况，以制定针对性政策。


India’s National Rural Health Mission has adopted such an approach, using region-specific data to identify low-quality prenatal care, unsafe deliveries, and lack of access to birth control as high-priority issues in 18 states.	印度的国家农村卫生计划就采取了这样的方法，使用具体的地区数据，将低质量产前护理、不安全分娩和缺少生育控制手段作为18个邦的高度紧迫问题。


The measures that the mission has implemented since 2005 – including free contraception, pregnancy tracking, prenatal care, compensation for hospital delivery, and regular home visits to new mothers – contributed to a 20% drop in fertility rates in the targeted states by 2010, and helped to reduce maternal and infant deaths.	该计划2005年以来采用的措施——包括免费避孕、怀孕跟踪、产前护理、医院分娩补贴和新妈妈定期家访——让目标邦的2010年出生率降低了20%，也降低了产妇和婴儿死亡。


But this approach is not sufficient to address the gender inequality that characterizes Indian politics and society.	但这一方法不足以纠正印度政坛和社会的性别不平等现象。


Women comprise just 10% of India’s parliament, and only two of 35 ministers with full Cabinet rank are women.	妇女只占据了印度议会10%的席位，内阁35名部长中，只有2名妇女。


And, while the 33% quota for women in local-government bodies has placed a million of them in elected positions at the grass roots, the extent to which this has actually improved women’s status has yet to be measured.	此外，尽管地方政府部门女性职员不少于33%的规定让100万草根女性被选为政府官员，但这在多大程度上改善了妇女地位还有待测算。


Moreover, discrimination in India often begins in the family.	此外，印度的歧视往往从家庭就开始了。


Indian families’ tendency to prefer sons has resulted in an adverse sex ratio, particularly in some northern states.	印度家庭的重男轻女导致了畸形的性别比率，特别是在北方各邦。


Moreover, in the same region, more than 60% of girls are married well before the legal age, making pregnancies among anemic and malnourished teenagers a common occurrence.	此外，同样是在北部，60%多女孩在远未达到法定年龄时便已结婚，这导致血气不足、营养不良的十来岁女孩怀孕的现象大量发生。


But, at the same time, most girls complete 12 years of schooling in the northern mountain state of Himachal Pradesh, demonstrating that the north-south distinction is no more conclusive than countrywide generalizations.	但是，与此同时，在北部山区的喜马偕尔邦，大部分女孩完成了12年的学校教育，这表明南北差异和全国一般化一样不靠谱。


To facilitate the design of effective targeted policies, India’s Central Statistical Organization is working to provide detailed data through a pilot project that captures Indian states’ SIGI indicators.	为了促进设计有效的定向政策，印度中央统计组织（Central Statistical Organization）正在致力于通过试点项目提供详细数据，试点项目将采集印度各邦的SIGI指标。


The study will highlight the variations in social, cultural, and economic barriers to female empowerment across India.	这项研究将强调印度女性所遭受的各种社会、文化和经济壁垒。


Policies based on generalities will not work.	基于一般化的政策不会奏效。


To initiate a fundamental shift in citizens’ gender-related attitudes and behavior, India’s leaders must understand – by the numbers – the often-dramatic disparities between their country’s individual states.	要想促进印度国民的性别观和行为的根本性改变，印度领导人必须明白——通过数字明白——印度各邦之间往往存在巨大差异。


Slow Growth for US Interest Rates	缓慢增长的美国利率


LONDON – The US Federal Reserve’s new policy statement will, as usual, be analyzed in excruciating detail in the days ahead, as investors seek guidance on when and how quickly interest rates will be raised.	发自伦敦——跟以往一样，美国联邦储备委员会的新政策声明将在未来一段时间被各界抽丝剥茧，细细咀嚼，因为投资者希望知道利率将在何时及以何种速度提升。


Notably, the word “patient” does not appear, and the Fed has signaled that it may raise its benchmark rate as early as June.	值得注意的是，“保持耐心”这个词并没有出现，而美联储已经暗示最快可能在6月提高基准利率。


But the particular wording is far less telling than the context in which the statement is being released.	但这一具体措辞所包含的含义远比刚公布的声明文本要少。


In fact, uncertainty about monetary policy in the United States has been the leading driver of financial-market volatility this year.	事实上，美国货币政策的不确定性一直是今年金融市场波动的主要驱动力。


After all, the potential effect of interest-rate hikes on the US yield curve has a major impact on the pricing of all global assets.	毕竟，加息对美国收益率曲线的潜在效应会对全球所有资产的价格产生重大影响。


But three factors suggest that investors are over-emphasizing the risk of a curve re-pricing.	但三项因素表明投资者其实是对曲线重新定价的风险过分在意了。


First, economic developments will likely lead the Fed to exhibit caution when it comes to the process of raising interest rates.	首先，经济发展将有可能令美联储在进入加息程序时表现谨慎。


Second, even if the Fed acts quickly, investor appetite for returns will anchor yields.	其次，即使美联储迅速行动，投资者对收益回报的渴求将锁定收益。


Third, the technical features of the market will ensure strong demand for US Treasury bills.	第三，市场的技术特征必定会产生对美国国债的强劲需求。


Let us begin with the relevant economic developments.	让我们从相关经济发展开始谈。


The consensus nowadays is that the US economy is growing steadily, with the leading indicators pointing toward further expansion, and labor-market data surpassing expectations.	如今的共识是随着关键指标进一步向好，以及劳动力市场数据超过预期，美国经济正在稳步增长。