NEW DELHI – The scientists whose research has revealed the extent of global climate change are now getting the tabloid treatment.	新德里 —— 科学家通过研究揭示了全球气候变化的严重性，如今，他们却成了街头小报上的笑柄。


First came the scandal of leaked (actually hacked) e-mails at the climate institute of Britain’s East Anglia University.	先是英国东安格利亚大学气候研究所爆出电子邮件外泄（实际上是被黑客窃取）丑闻；


Now comes the supposed news that the Himalayan glaciers are not, in fact, retreating, and will therefore not disappear by 2035.	后又出来一条想当然的新闻，说喜马拉雅山冰川并不像科学家描述的那样正在退化，因而不会在 2035 年之前融化殆尽。


The first story was timed to appear just before December’s COP15 climate-change summit in Copenhagen.	第一个故事发生的时机恰逢哥本哈根《联合国气候变化框架公约》第 15 次缔约方会议召开前夕。


The second is designed to bury whatever hopes still exist for signing a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol.	第二个故事则似乎是冲着《京都议定书》续约问题而来，试图扼杀续约的一切希望。


Coming one after the other, these inflated scandals have, at least for now, dealt a massive blow to the credibility of the evidence that underpins the battle against global warming.	两弹连发，大做文章，闹得舆论哗然； 应对全球变暖运动的科学依据遭遇公信力重创，至少短时间内元气大伤。


But how justified are these attacks, particularly the attacks on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations body that has set the gold standard for analyzing global climate change?	这些口诛笔伐尤其针对设立了气候变化科研标准的联合国实体 —— 政府间气候变化专门委员会（ IPCC ），它们本身的可信度又有多高呢？


One tell-tale sign is the climate skeptics’ contempt for the actual data in the Indian government’s study, which is being used to undermine the IPCC report and the impeccable credentials of the scientist Syed Iqbal Hasnain, the source of the IPCC’s alarming quote on the Himalayas.	有两件事颇耐人寻味：气候变化怀疑论者一方面利用印度政府的最新研究数据攻击 IPCC 报告以及报告所援引的科学家哈斯南（ Syed Iqbal Hasnain ）的学术清誉，另一方面却对那些数据断章取义。 他们指控 IPCC 主席、诺贝尔和平奖得主帕乔里（ R.


There is also the unholy glee with which they have set about destroying an icon of the anti-global warming movement, the Nobel Laureate R.K Pachauri, by attributing financial motives to his research.	K. Pachauri ）的科学研究掺杂着金钱动机，试图搞臭这位应对全球变暖运动的标志性人物，与此同时也不忘弹冠相庆一番。


Hasnain, who  is currently conducting a study of the accumulation of black carbon on snow at high altitudes in the Himalayas, is not some egotistical scientist seeking the limelight.	哈斯南眼下正在主持一个喜马拉雅山高海拔地区积雪中黑碳沉降研究项目，他可不是什么追求曝光率的科学自大狂。


He  was Professor of Glaciology at  Jawaharlal Nehru University’s  School of Environmental Sciences and a fellow of the Indian Institute of Technology  and of  Delft Technical University in the Netherlands.	他曾任尼赫鲁大学（ JNU ）环境学院冰川学教授、印度理工学院（ IIT ）与荷兰代尔夫特理工大学（ TU Delft ）研究员。


Between 1995 and 1999, he chaired a working group on Himalayan Glaciology within the International Commission on Snow and Ice.	从 1995 年至 1999 年，他是国际雪、冰学会下属喜马拉雅山冰川学小组的组长。


He is also the author of  Himalayan Glaciers: Hydrology and Hydrochemistry and scores of scientific papers.	他著有《喜马拉雅山冰川：水文学与水文化学》一书以及大量的科学论文。


Hasnain made his remark to the  New Scientist in 1999, only five years after the retreat had reached its peak and only two to three years after the slowdown began – far too soon to say that the trend had changed.   The IPCC’s use of his remark may have been rash, but was not misleading  because in 2003-2004, the year before it finalized its fourth report, the changed trend would have been barely perceptible	哈斯南对《新科学家》杂志就喜马拉雅山冰川退化情况作出评论，是在 1999 年，当时是冰川后退速度见顶后的第五年，后退放缓迹象刚刚出现了两三年，因此，按当时的条件，远不足以判断冰川消退的趋势已有所改变。  IPCC 的第四次评估报告引用哈斯南的说法，虽可以说有点冒失，但不能说是颠倒黑白，因为在该报告最终成型的前一年，也就是 2003~2004 年的时候，改变后的新趋势仍然不容易认清。


What the 2009 report for the Indian Ministry of Forests and Environment actually says is that the average retreat of glaciers, approximately five meters per year since the 1840’s, when records began to be kept, accelerated sharply between the 1950’s and 1990’s.	气候变化怀疑论者拿过来当枪使的是印度林业与环境部 2009 年收到的一份报告。 该报告完整的结论是，自 19 世纪 40 年代有观测记录以来，喜马拉雅山冰川一直以年均约 5 米的速度后退，在 20 世纪 50 年代至 90 年代之间，冰川后退急剧提速。


But the retreat slowed after the mid-1990’s until, for some of the biggest and best-known glaciers, such as Gangotri and Siachen,  it had “practically come to a standstill during the period 2007-2009.”	但自 20 世纪 90 年代起，后退速度有所回落，因为一些知名大冰川，如根戈德里冰川和锡亚琴冰川的后退，“在 2007~2009 年期间实际上已经处于停滞状态。 ”


But, the retreat of a glacier’s “snout” is only one of three measures of how glaciers can change.	然而，冰舌的后退只是冰川变迁的三大衡量尺度之一。


The other two are its “mass balance” and the rate at which melt-water is discharged.	另两大衡量尺度是冰川物质平衡和冰川融水径流量。


The Himalayan glaciers have not stopped losing mass, although they are losing it at a somewhat slower rate than before.	迄今为止，喜马拉雅山冰川每年仍在损失冰川物质，只不过近年来的损失速度比先前有所减缓。


Evidence collected on 466 glaciers by the Indian Space Applications Center from 1962 to 2004 shows a 21% loss of glacier area and a 30.8% of glacier volume.	印度空间应用研究中心（ SAC ）自 1962 至 2004 年从 466 个冰川采集的证据表明，在观测期间，冰川面积整体收缩了 21% ，冰川体积整体萎缩了 30. 8% 。


The same study also shows that smaller glaciers are shrinking much more rapidly than larger ones.	SAC 的上述研究还表明，小冰川萎缩得比大冰川快。


While glaciers that cover more than five square kilometers have lost 12% of their mass, those under one square kilometer have lost 38 percent.	面积达到 5 平方公里以上的冰川损失了 12% 的冰川物质，而面积不足 1 平���公里的则损失了 38% 。


Applying the overall ratio of mass lost to area covered, this means that the smallest (and most numerous) Himalayan glaciers lost up to 57% of their mass between 1960 and 2004.	根据冰川物质流失的整体速率和冰川面积来推算，面积最小的喜马拉雅山冰川在 1960~2004 年期间损失了高达 57% 的冰川物质，而这一部分冰川是数量最大的。


What could have caused the glacier snouts to have stopped retreating?	是什么导致冰舌中止后退的呢？


One factor could be deposits of dust and black carbon (collectively called aerosols) upon the snow, which, up to an accumulation of 400 grams per square meter sharply raises the rate of melting.	一个因素可能是积雪表面尘埃和黑碳（统称气溶胶）的沉降密度。 气溶胶沉降密度为每平方米 400 克，会导致冰舌迅速融化。


Between 400 and 600 grams, it has no further effect, but when it exceeds 600 grams, it acts as a shield against the sun, and slows down melting.	每平方米 400 克至 600 克之间，无明显效应。 高于每平方米 600 克，则仿佛给冰舌盖上了一层抵挡阳光的罩子，从而使融化速度放缓。


Much thicker coatings of aerosols at the lower ends of glaciers might explain the tendency in several glaciers, noted in the Indian report, to become narrower in the middle, forming two distinct parts.	冰舌下端的气溶胶沉降比中部和上部厚得多，这有助于解释某些冰川中部变窄、形成上下两截的现象，印度报告对此特别注意。


The slowdown in the retreat of the snout of glaciers could, therefore, be a consequence of the very rapid rise of human population in the hills and desertification caused by overgrazing – purely local factors that boost aerosol levels.	因此，冰舌后退放缓的根源可能是山区人口激增和过度放牧所导致的荒漠化，也就是导致气溶胶浓度上升的当地因素。


Only more research focused on the differences between glaciers in heavily populated areas and those in uninhabited ones like Siachen will answer this question definitively.	这个问题要得到最终解答，还需要进一步研究人口稠密地区和无人地区冰川的不同表现。


But relying upon population growth and desertification to prolong their lives would be robbing Peter to pay Paul.	无论如何，如果导致冰川后退中止的是人口增长和荒漠化，那也不是什么值得庆幸的事情。


What needs to be explored is not the validity of the secular trend, but the nature of the local influences working against it.	这次所谓的“冰川门”事件说明，的确需要重新检讨我们的认识，但不是对冰川退化这一长期趋势的认识，而是对干扰退化趋势的当地因素的认识。


By rushing to apologize for a statement they clearly did not understand, British Secretary for Energy and Climate Change Ed Miliband and others have impugned not only the honesty of scientists like Hasnain, but also the credibility of science itself.	英国能源安全与气候变化大臣米利班德（ Ed Miliband ）和其他一干人等忙不迭地出来为他们自己也一知半解的事情道歉，不光是在糟蹋哈斯南等诚实科学家的声誉，也是在糟蹋科学本身的信誉。


Pemberantasan Penyakit Tidak Menular	杀死非传染性疾病


SEATTLE – Selama 25 tahun terakhir, berkat upaya global terkoordinasi untuk melawan penyakit-penyakit menular, termasuk malaria, tuberkolosis (TB), HIV/AIDS, dan polio, angka kematian balita dan anak-anak berkurang 50% dan rata-rata usia harapan hidup meningkat lebih dari enam tahun.	西雅图—在过去25年中，部分要归因于打击传染病，疟疾、结核病、艾滋病和小儿麻痹症的全球协作，儿童死亡率已经下降了50%，平均寿命预期增加了六年多。


Selain itu, jumlah penduduk hidup yang hidup dalam kemiskinan ekstrem sudah berkurang setengahnya.	此外，全世界生活在极端贫困状态下的人口也降低了一半。


Jelas bahwa ini merupakan pencapaian hebat, tapi muncul tantangan-tantangan baru yang harus diatasi segera.	这些都是重大成就，但它们带来了一组迫切需要解决的新挑战。


Ketika angka harapan hidup meningkat dan gaya hidup berubah, penyakit-penyakit tidak menular (PTM) seperti diabetes, penyakit kardiovaskuler, kanker, dan gangguan pernafasan semakin menjadi-jadi, bahkan menjadi penyebab kematian tertinggi di dunia. sekitar 3,2 juta orang meninggal dunia akibat malaria, TB, atau HIV/AIDS pada tahun 2014, namun lebih dari 38 juta orang meninggal dunia akibat PTM.	随着生命的延长和生活方式的改变，非传染性疾病（NCD），如糖尿病、心血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病等大幅涌现，成为世界第一大致死原因。 2014年，死于疟疾、结核病或艾滋病的人数为320万，但有3,800万多人死于非传染性疾病，并且人数还在继续增加。


Misalnya diabetes, salah satu PTM yang penyebarannya sangat cepat.	以增长最快的非传染性疾病糖尿病为例。


Menurut laporan WHO (World Health Organization) terbaru, diabetes membunuh 1,5 juta orang pada tahun 2012, hampir sama dengan kematian akibat TB.	据最新的世卫组织报告，2012年糖尿病杀死了150万人，和结核病相当。


Akan tetapi, kematian akibat TB telah berkurang setengahnya sejak tahun 1990, sementara efek diabetes naik dengan cepatnya.	但1990年以来结核病死亡人数减少了一半，而糖尿病的影响迅速增加。 1980年，1.


Pada tahun 1980, 108 juta orang menderita diabetes, atau 1 dari 20 orang; kini, lebih dari 400 juta orang, atau 1 dari 12 orang mengidap diabetes.	08亿人罹患糖尿病，比例为20分之一； 如今，糖尿病患者超过4亿，比例为12分之一。


Walaupun diyakini oleh masyarakat umum bahwa PTM adalah penyakit orang kaya, justru penyakit-penyakit ini jauh lebih banyak diderita oleh penduduk miskin di semua negara, terutama di negara-negara berpendapatan rendah dan menengah.	流行的观念是非传染性疾病都是丰裕病，与此相反，实际上它们在所有发展阶段影响最多的均为穷人，但在中低收入国家尤其如此。


Menurut laporan WHO, lebih dari 80% kematian terkait diabetes bukan terjadi di negara-negara berpendapatan tinggi.	事实上，据世卫组织报告，80%以上的糖尿病相关死亡发生在高收入国家以外。


Salah satu alasannya ialah diabetes tipe 2, yang lebih umum terjadi dan diderita banyak orang, biasanya disebabkan oleh faktor gaya hidup, seperti kurangnya aktivitas fisik, obesitas, pola makan buruk, dan merokok, yang menunjukkan sejumlah cara hidup yang lebih umum ditemui di kalangan penduduk yang tidak berkecukupan.	一个原因是二型糖尿病——较为常见的糖尿病种类——与生活方式因素相关，如缺乏运动、肥胖、不健康饮食和吸烟，这些因素在较不丰裕地区更为常见。


Kondisi ini diperparah dengan keterbatasan jumlah dan tingginya harga alat dan terapi untuk mendiagnosis dan mengobati diabetes sehingga tidak mampu dijangkau masyarakat miskin.	更糟糕的是，在贫穷社会，诊断和治疗糖尿病的工具和药物十分稀缺，其价格常常令人无法承受。


Studi terkini yang dilakukan PATH, melalui dukungan Novo Nordisk, menunjukkan bahwa di beberapa kasus, hanya sepertiga fasilitas kesehatan masyarakat yang memiliki stok insulin, dan hanya 1 dari empat yang mempunyai strip uji untuk memonitor diabetes.	由诺和诺德公司支持、PATH执笔的最新研究表明，在一些例子中，只有三分之一的公共卫生机构有牛胰岛素库存，只有四分之一的公共卫生机构有监测糖尿病用的试纸。


Di Ghana, gaji 15 hari hanya membiayai suplai 2 obat untuk 30 hari dari jenis obat-obatan yang diperlukan untuk mencegah komplikasi.	在加纳，15天的工资只能维持预防糖尿病并发症所需要两种药物15天的供应。


Keterbatasan ini menggambarkan betapa sebagian besar (hampir 50%) kasus diabetes di luar negara-negara berpendapatan tinggi masih tidak terdiagnosis atau tidak diobati.	这些失败意味着，在富裕国家之外，有近一半的糖尿病病例得不到诊断或合理的管理。


Dampaknya terhadap kesehatan manusia dan perekonomian sangat besar.	这带来了严重的人道和经济后果。


Diabetes memerlukan pengobatan seumur hidup dan semakin cepat penyakit ini terdeteksi dan diobati, lebih baik juga hasilnya.	糖尿病需要终身治疗，诊断和治疗开始得越早，结果越好。


Jika diabaikan, diabetes akan menimbulkan kondisi-kondisi yang sulit atau tidak bisa diobati dan seringkali menyebabkan kematian dini.	得不到治疗的话，糖尿病会导致无法工作的状况，并且常常导致过早死亡。


Lalu apa yang harus dilakukan agar setiap warga bisa mendapatkan alat dan terapi untuk mendiagnosis, mengobati, dan memonitor diabetes?	要确保人们具备诊断、治疗和监测糖尿病的��具，需要做些什么？


Pertama, pembuat kebijakan dan donor harus mengakui besarnya efek diabetes terhadap masyarakat miskin dan memfokuskan perhatian dan pendanaan lebih besar pada pencegahan dan pengobatan.	首先，决策者和出资者必须认识到糖尿病的影响大部分落在了贫困社会，必须更多地关注和为预防与治疗提供资金。


Program-program pencegahan yang menggiatkan pola makan sehat dan olahraga bisa menurunkan prevalensi diabetes tipe 2 dan mengurangi komplikasi bagi penderitanya.	推广健康饮食和锻炼的预防计划能降低二型糖尿病的普遍程度以及患者的并发症。


Investasi pada sistem pelayanan kesehatan di negara-negara berpendapatan rendah dan menengah akan membantu mereka beradaptasi dengan kenaikan beban penyakit-penyakit seumur hidup seperti diabetes.	投资于中低收入国家的医疗系统有助于它们适应糖尿病等终身疾病的日益增长的负担。


Persoalan mengenai biaya juga mendesak dan perlu diselesaikan segera.	成本问题也急需解决。


Kita harus mengatasi kelemahan dalam sistem distribusi yang membatasi akses pada obat-obatan dan alat diagnosis, yang berdampak pada kenaikan biaya.	我们必须解决分销系统效率低下的问题，该问题阻碍了药物和诊断手段的普及，提高了成本。


Tindakan ini membutuhkan forecasting (perkiraan), perencanaan, dan distribusi lebih optimal; perundingan harga yang lebih efektif; dan penetapan batas markup.	这需要更好的预测、规划和分销； 更高效的价格谈判，以及限制加价。


Selain itu, perlu adanya investasi pada penelitian dan pengembangan obat dan alat diagnosis yang murah, yang lebih tepat untuk negara-negara dengan sumber daya terbatas.	此外，我们必须投资于低成本糖尿病疗法的研发和适用于资源匮乏环境的诊断工具。


Proyek-proyek gabungan yang inovatif dan menyatukan pemikir mutakhir dari kalangan akademisi, organisasi nirlaba, dan sektor swasta untuk menelurkan solusi-solusi efektif, terjangkau, dan sesuai sangatlah diperlukan.	我们急需联合非营利组织、学界和私人部门的创新思考者以产生高效、平价且合理的方案的智能联合项目。


Diabetes bukan satu-satunya PTM yang urgen.	糖尿病是一种普通非传染性疾病。


Terapi dan teknologi yang esensial untuk mendiagnosis dan mengobati penyakit jantung, kanker, dan gangguan pernafasan, juga terbatas jumlahnya dan jauh lebih mahal harganya di negara-negara berpendapatan rendah dan menengah, dibandingkan di negara-negara maju.	诊断和治疗心脏病、癌症和心血管疾病的重要药物和技术也严重短缺，对于中低收入国家的人来说更是比富裕国家的人贵得多。


Ketimpangan ini mendorong jurnal medis The Lancet untuk menyebut krisis PTM sebagai “social justice issue of our time”.	这一差异促使医学杂志《柳叶刀》将非传染性疾病危机称为“当代社会正义问题”。


Jika kita tidak mengambil tindakan, krisis tersebut akan memburuk. WHO memperkirakan bahwa dalam kurun waktu 2010 hingga 2020, kematian akibat PTM akan naik 15% dan mayoritas akan terjadi di negara-negara berpendapatan rendah dan menengah.	如果不采取行动，这场危机将更加严重，世卫组织预计，从2010年到2020年，非传染性疾病死亡人数将增加15%，其中大部分发生在中低收入国家。


Sekarang, hanya 1% pembiayaan kesehatan global dikucurkan pada program-program terkait PTM.	如今，只有1%的全球卫生融资流向了非传染性疾病相关项目。


Ini harus diubah. Segera.	这必须有所改变——并且要快。


Apabila dibiarkan begitu saja, capaian-capaian hebat yang diraih dalam perbaikan kesehatan global selama 25 tahun terakhir akan terkalahkan oleh kenaikan jumlah penderita dan angka kematian akibat penyakit-penyakit kronis yang kita ketahui cara pencegahan dan pengobatannya.	否则，过去25年来在改善全球健康方面所取得的令人瞩目的进步将因为越来越多的人因为我们明知如何预防和治疗的慢性病而受苦和死亡而黯然失色。


Tackling Rare and Orphan Diseases	应对罕见病和孤儿病


STANFORD – Rare diseases are commonly neglected, simply because they are, well, rare.	斯坦福—罕见病往往被忽视，原因嘛，好吧，就是因为它们罕见。


In the aggregate, however, they affect huge numbers of people.	但是，从总量看，它们影响着为数巨大的人们。


In the United States, rare diseases are defined as those that affect fewer than 200,000 people.	在美国，罕见病被定义为影响不到200,000人的疾病。


But there are more than 6,800 of these conditions, and worldwide they afflict hundreds of millions of people.	但罕见病症有6,800多种，而从世界范围看，它们折磨着数以亿计的人。


And yet only about 250 treatments are available for these diseases.	然而对这些疾病只有大约250种治疗方法可用。


One reason for this is that small numbers of patients make studying illnesses and testing drugs difficult.	之所以如此，原因之一是患者人数较少导致研究病例和测试药物变得十分困难。


As a result, medical professionals often know little about the symptoms and biology of these diseases.	结果，医学界人士常常对这些疾病的症候和病例所知甚少。


Earlier this year, I participated in a Rare Disease Day program in California.	今年早些时候，我参与了加利福尼亚州的一个罕见病日项目。


The topic was an obscure but large collection (more than 70) of diseases caused by a specific type of genetic error – one that takes place in the machinery of cells that chemically attaches sugars to proteins and lipids.	项目的主题是收集了众多（70多种）因为某种遗传错误而导致的很难弄懂的疾病。 这种遗传错误发生在蛋白质和脂类上化学添加糖成分的细胞结构上。


Little is known about what causes the mutations that give rise to these congenital disorders, and treatments exist for only a few.	是什么变异导致了这些先天性失调人们几乎一无所知，而疗法也寥寥无几。


These defects can lead to a wide spectrum of problems, because accurate glycosylation, as the process is called, is essential for the functioning of many signaling molecules, such as hormones and neurotransmitters, as well as the receptors to which these molecules bind.	这些缺陷可能导致各种问题，因为，顾名思义，正确的糖化对于许多信号分子（比如激素和神经递质）以及这些分子绑定的受体的功能至关重要。


Along with health professionals, the audience at the conference included children afflicted with these diseases, along with their families.	除了专业医学人士，与会者还包括受这些疾病困扰的儿童以及他们的家庭。


For an entire afternoon, the health professionals met in small groups with the families and children.	医学专家们花了整整一个下午的时间分成小组与家庭和儿童会面。


As the discussion went on, one child would occasionally let out a blood-curdling scream.	随着讨论的进行，一名儿童偶尔发出令人毛骨悚然的尖叫。


Another would periodically make quacking noises.	另一名儿童时不时制造“嘎嘎”的噪声。


Still others sat in various stages of deterioration.	其他儿童病情严重程度不一而足。


At one point, I was sitting about a foot away from an adorable little girl – I think she was about two years old – and every couple of minutes she would have a seizure.	在某个时刻，离我的座位一尺远的地方有一位很可爱的小女孩——我猜她大约两岁——她每隔几分钟就会发作一次癫痫。


Her eyes would roll back, and her head would drop to her chest.	她会翻白眼，头垂到胸口。


The medications she is taking are able to prevent only the most violent and generalized of her seizures.	她所服用的药物只能防止最暴力和最一般化的癫痫。


Then she would recover and resume pressing the screen of her little child’s laptop.	然后她能够恢复，并重新点击她的儿童小电脑的屏幕。


Her anguished father spent the entire session stroking her arm.	她的悲痛的父亲在整个环节中都在抚摸她的手臂。


Watching the parents was difficult.	观察家长令人十分难受。


Some were hyper-alert, asking lots of questions; they seemed to have devoured every scientific paper, blog, and newspaper article in existence.	有些家长超级紧张，问各种问题； 他们似乎已经读过存在的所有的科学论文、博客和报纸文章。


Others just seemed confused.	还有一些家长似乎很迷茫。


The worst were those with blank stares of deep despair.	最糟糕的是一些家长眼神空洞，神情绝望。


For most of the parents, the random bad luck of their child’s genetic defect had stolen their lives, turning their days into a series of endless visits to medical specialists.	对大部分家长来说，孩子的遗传缺陷的随机不幸偷走了他们的生活，没完没了地访医求药成了他们的日常。


Most of the kids need large numbers of medicines.	大部分孩子需要多种药物。


Many must be fed via gastric feeding tubes inserted surgically through an incision in their abdomens.	其中许多必须通过外科手术切开腹部植入胃饲管才能进食。


One woman was there with her 32-year-old son.	一位妇女带着她32岁的儿子来到现场。


There is much that governments can do to help those dealing with rare diseases.	政府可以做很多事情帮助应对罕见病。


First, they can redirect research funding from less critical pursuits to projects in molecular genetics that can offer insights into metabolic disorders.	首先，它们可以把资金从不太重要的目标转移到可能为代谢障碍提供洞见的分子遗传学项目。


Second, they can reduce the burden of regulatory red tape on the very small clinical trials of new treatments for rare diseases.	其次，它们可以减小罕见病新疗法的极小规模临场试验的监管官样文章负担。


Finally, policymakers can create financial incentives – which could include tax breaks on research and development – to encourage drug companies to develop therapies that otherwise would not provide an attractive return on investment.	最后，决策者可以制造财务激励——包括研发减税税收优惠——鼓励制药公司开发原本难以产生有吸引力的投资回报的疗法。


In the world of medicine, practitioners of a few difficult, draining specialties are – in my book – well on the path to sainthood.	在我的书中，在医学界献身于一些消耗心神的困难领域仿佛一条成圣之路。


I would include among them pediatric oncologists, the staff of burn units, the volunteers who treat patients with lethal infectious diseases such as Ebola, and the professionals who diagnose and treat debilitating genetic diseases and work with the afflicted families.	我认为儿科肿瘤学家、烧伤科工作人员、治疗埃博拉等致命传染病的志愿者以及诊断和治疗衰弱性遗传疾病并与患者家庭共同努力的专业人士都属于此类。


These unsung heroes need all the support we can provide.	这些无名英雄需要我们竭尽所能提供帮助。


The Years of Living Tactically	策略生活年代


MADRID – We have been living in an illusion.	马德里—我们一直生活在幻觉中。


For years, the world has believed that the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar order would be peaceful, orderly, and steady, with new players like China, Brazil, and Turkey adapting to the existing multilateral framework in a natural, harmonious way.	多年来，世界相信从单极秩序向多极秩序的转变会是和平、有序、平稳的，中国、巴西和土耳其等新“选手”会以自然、和谐的方式适应已有的多边框架。


How wrong we were.	大错特错。


In fact, as the transition toward multipolarity has progressed, the international order has become increasingly unstable and tense.	事实上，随着朝向多极的转变有所进展，国际秩序也变得日益动荡和紧张。


The 2008 global financial crisis compounded uncertainty and mistrust, disrupting key trends like globalization.	2008年全球金融危机加剧了不确定性和不信任，破坏了全球化等重要趋势。


But the biggest problem has been the failure of the developed countries – the architects of the post-World War II international order – to formulate an inclusive strategy to address global challenges and manage the transition to a new international system.	但最大的问题是发达国家——二战后国际秩序的设计者——没能找到包容性战略解决全球挑战和管理向新国际体系的转变。


The reason for this failure is simple: the West has allowed short-term tactical concerns to impede the development of a long-term strategic vision.	为何失败，原因很简单：西方放任短期策略性问题阻碍长期战略愿景的发展。


This obsession with tactics has affected governance at all levels, from local administrations to supranational institutions, allowing major actors to operate within uncoordinated realities, without any shared goals guiding their decision-making.	沉迷于策略影响了各级别政府，从地方当局一直到超国家机构，致使主要行动方在不合作的现实中运行，不再有任何共同目标指引决策。


To be sure, there have been some noteworthy exceptions, owing to concerted efforts to consolidate a constructive strategic vision.	平心而论，拜整合建设性战略愿景的共同努力所赐，还是有一些值得关注的例外。


For example, Western policy has yielded some progress toward a resolution regarding Iran’s nuclear program.	比如，西方政策在解决伊朗核计划问题上取得了一些进展。


But, in other areas, strategic thinking has fallen short.	但是，在其他领域，战略思维有所欠缺。


In Ukraine, for example, the conflict has both exposed and widened the fissure between Russia and the West.	比如，在乌克兰，冲突暴露并扩大了俄罗斯语西方之间的分歧。


Post-Soviet Russia’s struggle to integrate into the international order, together with its rejection of modernization, has fueled a revisionist nationalism based on spheres of influence.	后苏联时代的俄罗斯想要融入国际秩序，同时又拒绝现代化，这助长了基于势力范围的修正主义民族主义。


And it is not just Russia that has turned its back on Western modernity.	但拒绝西方式现代性的并不只有俄罗斯。


The Middle East has been a hotbed of instability fueled by historical tensions since the fall of the Ottoman Empire almost a century ago.	自一百年前奥斯曼帝国崩溃以来，中东一直受历史恩怨困扰，成为动荡的温床。


Now it is on fire – not least because the West’s repeated interventions have been guided by shortsighted tactical concerns.	如今，中东战火频仍——因为西方的一再用短视策略性思维指导干预。


Indeed, Western leaders failed to anticipate the long-term consequences of supporting autocracies, revealed in the Arab Spring revolts, or to foresee the impact of successive military interventions in Iraq, Syria, and Libya.	事实上，西方领导人没有预见到支持极权的长期后果（阿拉伯之春革命让这些后果尽显无疑），也没有预见到连续军事干预伊拉克、叙利亚和利比亚的影响。


As a result, nostalgia for the “glorious” past – such as the Islamic State’s caliphate envy – is proliferating in the Middle East, too.	因此，对“光荣”的过去的还念——如伊斯兰国对哈里发帝国的还念——在中东茁壮成长。


The West was not prepared for global forces to push backward and to seek a future in the past.	西方没有料到全球力量的回弹和向过去寻找未来。


In any case, the Middle East must be allowed to take ownership of solutions to the challenges it faces; after all, no externally imposed solution has worked so far.	无论如何，必须让中东自主拥有解决其所面临的挑战的办法； 毕竟，到目前为止还没有外界施加的解决办法奏效。


The responsibility of the rest of the world is to build a stable backdrop for such efforts: an inclusive international system in which countries abide by the same rules and norms.	世界其他部分的责任在于为寻找办法的努力提供稳定支持：构建一个所有国家都遵守同样的规则和范式的包容性国际体系。


In managing the transition toward multipolarity, the West’s greatest challenge lies in Asia – a region that is simultaneously dynamic and future-oriented and hampered by historical tensions and divides.	在管理朝向多极的转变中，西方最大的挑战在亚洲——这个地区既充满活力、面向未来，又深受历史恩怨和分裂纠缠。


Recognizing Asia’s profound importance to the new world order, US President Barack Obama announced a strategic “pivot” toward the region in 2012.	美国总统奥巴马意识到亚洲对新世界秩序的深刻重要性，在2012年提出将亚洲作为美国的战略“支点”。


But Western leaders have hesitated to integrate China, Asia’s most economically formidable actor, into the international system.	但西方领导人对于将亚洲最可怕的经济行动方中国纳入国际体系一直犹豫不决。


Indeed, the last meeting of the International Monetary Fund – which recognized China as the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity – concluded without increasing China’s share of votes.	事实上，国际货币基金组织（IMF）尽管认识到中国已成为世界第二大经济体（用购买力平价衡量），但在其最新会议上仍拒绝增加其投票比重。


To put this in perspective, China was left with a slightly higher proportion of votes than Italy, whose economy is one-fifth the size, and just one-quarter of America’s vote share.	值得注意的是，中国的投票权只比意大利略重，而后者的经济规模只有中国的五分之一。 与美国相比，中国的投票权只有其四分之一。


Moreover, the West has relegated support for the creation and strengthening of regional frameworks for cooperation in key areas like security to secondary importance.	此外，西方将对建立和强化安全等重要领域的地区合作框架列为次要事务。


Unlike Europe, Asia’s wounds from WWII never healed.	与欧洲不同，亚洲从未从二战创伤中痊愈。


As a result, territorial disputes and nationalist claims remain a potent threat to regional – indeed global – stability.	结果，领土纠纷和民族主义主张依然是该地区——事实上，是全球——稳定的重大威胁。


But, for the West, applying long-term vision requires more than recognizing the imperative of strategic decision-making; it also demands efforts to revitalize polarized and dysfunctional domestic political systems.	但是，对西方来说，实施长期愿景需要的不止于认识到战略决策的紧迫性； 还需要采取措施重振极化且功能失调的国内政治制度。


In the United States, there is no question that the lack of strategic vision displayed in Obama’s foreign policy is at least partly a result of his need to navigate a defective system.	在美国，奥巴马的外交政策之所以缺乏战略愿景，显然至少部分是因为他需要应对一个有缺陷的制度。


For its part, the European Union has pursued shortsighted policies to address its economic challenges, without anticipating – or acknowledging – the social and political consequences, including the proliferation of anti-EU sentiment.	至于欧盟，它一直最求短视政策解决其经济挑战，而没有预见到——或承认——政治后果，如反欧盟情绪的泛滥。


Member states’ tactical approach to their particular problems (often defined by their status as creditor or debtor) has left the EU bereft of credible leadership and a unified vision.	成员国对各自问题（通常由其债权人或债务人的地位决定）的策略性方针让欧盟失去了可信的领导层和统一的前景。


A more strategic approach would focus on boosting growth throughout the EU, such as by meeting the Europe 2020 targets for research, development, and innovation, and advancing the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.	更具战略性的方针应聚焦于提振整个欧盟的增长，手段包括实现欧洲2020研究、开发和创新目标以及推进跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系（Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership）。


Tactics are short-term solutions that often have significant unforeseen consequences, making it impossible to predict the kind of world they will generate.	策略是短期办法，常常造成意料之外的重大后果，导致它不可能预判可能产生的状况。


Strategy forms a different axis of action, accounting for the structure of global interdependence and thus how individual changes may affect the entire system.	战略则是另一种行动轴线，考虑全球相互依存结构以及个别挑战如何影响整个体系。


Only by moving to this axis of strategy can we achieve the world we want: one that is habitable, stable, free, and prosperous.	只有转向战略轴线，我们才可能实现我们想要的世界：宜居、稳定、自由、繁荣的世界。


Taiwan’s New Balancer-in-Chief	台湾新当选的平衡总统


TOKYO – Even as many of the world’s electorates – most notably in the United States – are tilting toward the extremes, voters in Taiwan have bucked the trend and chosen the middle road.	东京——即使全世界众多选民——尤其是美国选民——正在朝极端方向倾斜，但台湾选民却逆市选择了中间路线。


The election on January 16 of Tsai Ing-wen, Chair of the Democratic Progressive Party, as President is a signal that, however hesitant Taiwanese voters may be about entering into a deeper embrace with China, they also want to avoid a rupture in the relationship with their powerful neighbor and former antagonist.	1月16日民进党主席蔡英文当选总统表明无论台湾选民对走近中国的怀抱有多么犹豫，他们仍然希望避免与这个强大的邻居以及曾经的对手关系破裂。


Tsai, who will be Taiwan’s first female president, is said to have once supported Taiwanese independence, but she avoided expressing similar sentiments during the campaign, pledging instead to maintain the status quo.	据称台湾首位女总统蔡英文曾支持台湾独立，但她避免在竞选期间表达类似观点，而是承诺要维持现有的局面。


Indeed, she was careful to distance herself from her mentor, former President Lee Teng-hui, an outspoken supporter of a clear break with China.	事实上，她小心翼翼地疏远自己的导师前总统李登辉，李曾直言不讳地支持与中国划清界限。


Tsai’s victory over the China-friendly Kuomintang implies that relations with the mainland – which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that it will eventually reclaim – will be considerably more measured.	蔡战胜对中国持友好态度的国民党意味着台湾领导层在处理与将台湾视为其终将收回的分离省份的大陆关系时将会慎重得多。


Moreover, as a former law professor, she is likely to be a stickler for details in any negotiations with China.	此外，身为曾经的法学教授，她极有可能在与中国的任何谈判细节上坚持己见。


Ironically, Tsai’s academic background (she studied at Cornell University and the London School of Economics) was probably one of the reasons for her loss to President Ma Ying-jeou in the 2012 election – a campaign in which she appeared stiff and ill at ease with the give-and-take of politics.	颇具讽刺意味的是，蔡英文的学术背景（她曾就读于康奈尔大学和伦敦经济学院）或许是她在2012年大选中输给总统马英九的原因之一——她在那次竞选中态度僵硬，对政治妥协表现得很不自然。


But in the last four years, her rhetorical skills and campaign manner have improved dramatically – to the point that her relaxed, animated persona is particularly popular among young voters.	但过去四年她的修辞技巧和竞选姿态取得了长足的进步——以至于她轻松、富有活力的个性特点在年轻选民中颇具人气。


Indeed, Tsai’s greatest ally late in the campaign was Chou Tzuyu, a 16-year-old Taiwanese singer in the popular Korean girl band Twice.	事实上，周子瑜是蔡英文在竞选后期最亲密的盟友，这位年仅16岁的台湾歌手是韩国人气女子乐队Twice的主唱。


Chou came under fire in China after posing for a picture while holding the Taiwanese flag, and her public apology for doing so – made on YouTube – reminded many on the island of the degree to which China is willing to pressure people into silence.	周因为手持中华民国国旗拍照而在华遭到攻击，而她为此事在YouTube上发布的公开道歉提醒了岛上很多人中国愿意在多大程度上迫使人保持沉默。


Many in Taiwan believe that this undermined support for Ma, who had been working to foster closer ties to China.	很多台湾人认为这损害了台湾人对马英九的支持，因为马一直力促与中国的关系更为密切。


By failing to defend Chou, the Kuomintang alienated many members of the under-30 generation, who strongly identify with Taiwan.	因为没能站出来保护周子瑜，国民党失去了很多30岁以下选民的支持，这些人有着强烈的台湾情结。


Chinese President Xi Jinping’s summit with Ma in Singapore in November probably did more harm than good.	中国国家主席习近平与马十一月举行的新加坡峰会很可能弊大于利。


Moreover, the announcement in December that the US is to sell $1.83 billion in weapons to the Ma government is also a clear show of support for Taiwan, which already appeared ready to renounce the Kuomintang.	此外，12月美国宣布向马政府出售价值18. 3亿美元的武器同样明确表示了对台湾的支持，此举似乎已经准备放弃国民党。


Such a sale early in Tsai’s tenure would have irritated China, complicating relations not only between China and Taiwan, but also between China and the US.	在蔡就职早期实施此类军售很可能将激怒中国，导致中台关系、乃至中美关系都变得更加复杂。


Tsai’s election, with 56.1% of the vote, demonstrates that, while many Taiwanese want good relations with China, they are opposed to the “One China” policy repeatedly asserted in Beijing.	蔡英文以56. 1%的得票率赢得大选表明尽管许多台湾人希望与中国建立良好关系，但他们反对北京一再宣称的“一个中国”政策。


And yet, in her relations with China, Tsai will have to walk a narrow path.	但事涉对华关系，蔡将被迫走上一条极为狭窄的道路。


If she explicitly distances herself from One China, she will undermine Xi’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, a grand vision for linking China to the rest of Asia and to Europe in which Taiwan is clearly expected to play an integral part.	如果她公然疏远一个中国政策，她将破坏习近平的“一代一路”倡议，在这项连接中国与亚洲其他国家和欧洲的宏伟计划中，台湾显然有望扮演不可或缺的角色。


Instead, Tsai is more likely to harden the status quo, which will displease Xi, but not enough for him to seek to undermine her.	相反，蔡更有可能巩固现状，这会令习近平感到不快，但还没有到足以促使他破坏蔡英文的程度。


Friction with China in economic areas probably cannot be avoided.	经济领域的对华摩擦或许是无法避免的。


But an effort should be made to secure for Taiwan a market that is able to share common rules.	但应当为争取共同规则的台湾市场努力工作。


Specifically, this requires finding the means to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and working with other countries in the Pacific to facilitate trade.	具体地讲，台湾要想方设法加入泛太平洋伙伴关系，并与其他太平洋国家合作促进贸易融合。


Tsai will not be inaugurated for another four months, so how the Ma government behaves in the interim could be decisive – especially if he ignores his electoral rebuke and continues to make overtures to China.	蔡还要等四个月才能就职，因此马政府在此期间的所作所为可能是决定性的——特别是如果他不顾选举失利继续与中国合作。


Given China’s claims on Taiwan, any sign of serious political instability could incite a disproportionate response from Xi.	鉴于中国对台湾的主权要求，任何严重政治动荡的迹象都有可能招致习的激烈对策。


For Taiwan, the next four months could prove to be even more important than the presidential campaign.	对台湾而言，事实可能证明未来四个月比总统选举更为重要。


Taking August Seriously	认真对待八月


TOULOUSE – Europe’s holiday month of August is no time for serious politics.	发自图卢兹——八月是欧洲传统的度假时节，没有人愿意在这个时候讨论国家大事。


The world and its worries are meant to close down while Europeans repose.	当欧洲人悠闲度假之时，整个世界以及那些内忧外患似乎都无影无踪了。


I usually spend the month with my family at our old converted farmhouse in southwestern France.	我通常会和家人一起在法国西南部的古老农庄大屋里度过这个假期。


It is the deepest countryside. As I write this under a vine in my vegetable garden, I look west across wooded hills and cannot see another building.	那是最富有乡村气息的地方， 我的这篇文章就是在菜园的葡萄架下写的，放眼向西边望去，满目都是郁郁葱葱的山岗，渺无人烟。


In our hamlet, there is one small working farm, a couple of holiday houses and the ruins of seven or eight other houses.	在我们这个小村子里有一个小农庄，几座度假别墅，还有6、7座房子的废墟。


A century ago, this would have been a community of more than 50 people.	在一个世纪之前，这是个有着50位居民的社区。


Today, there are two full-time residents, the farmer and her elderly mother. Otherwise, the inhabitants are vacation visitors.	到如今，这只有两个常住人口——农夫和他的母亲——其他都是前来度假的人。


Progress in France brought a fairly recent migration from country to town.	近几十年法国国家的进步引发了人们从乡村迁往城市的潮流。


“How is it,” a local pig farmer asked me a few a years ago, “that we locals all want to get out of here, and you northern  European city dwellers want to buy up our old farmhouses and move in?”	“怎么回事？ ”一个当地农夫在一年前问我，“我们这些当地人都想离开这里，你们这些北方的城市人却想买下我们的屋子搬进来住？


It is a part, I suppose, of the urban, middle-class northern European dream – the pursuit of the sun by day and silence by night.	”我想这大概是北边那些欧洲城市里的中产阶级的梦想——白天晒晒太阳，晚上清静入梦。


Even in the 15 years that we have owned this former tobacco farm, further progress has left its mark.	即便是我们买下这个烟草农场的15年间，进一步的发展也留下了烙印。


In our village, there used to be two of every shop – butcher’s shop, bakery, hardware store.	在我们村，从前每种商店都有一两个——肉店，面包店，五金店。


Now, there is only one. Supermarkets in the surrounding towns have driven the smaller shops out of business.	如今，周边城镇的超级市场已经把这些小本生意赶出了市场。


I guess they provide more choice, and they are probably cheaper.	我想是因为超市提供了更多选择，而且价格也更便宜。


But the commercial life has been squeezed out of local villages.	因此在当地农村已经看不到什么商业活动了。


Another mark of progress is the arrival of a broadband Internet connection.	另一个进步的烙印则是宽带网络的出现。


So now I can use my laptop just as though I was at home in London, and the satellite dish gives us the world’s television and radio stations as well.	这让我能像在伦敦家中那样使用手提电脑，而卫星则提供给我们全世界的新闻广播频道。


This is an advance in many respects.	在许多方面都有了进步。


But I used to be able to switch off from the world when on holiday, cut off from the intrusions of technology.	但我往常都习惯在假期中把那些国家大事抛于脑后，把那些高科技产品丢在一边。


Today there are no excuses. I am always on duty.	如今却没有这样的好事了，我必须随时待命。


Thanks to our television, we have of course been able to witness signs of progress elsewhere.	幸亏有了电视，我们可以见证世界其他地方的进步。


Maybe the terrible floods in Pakistan and China are not the direct result of climate change.	巴基斯坦和中国的特大洪水或许不是气候变化造成的。


But the evidence seems to suggest that variations in climactic conditions are increasing in scale and frequency.	但有证据证明气候状况的变化程度似乎在范围和频率上都有所增强。


We know that a 17-fold increase in the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere over the last century is part of the price of the surge in our prosperity, and that the world’s poorest citizens will bear the heaviest burden in paying it.	我们都知道如今大气中的二氧化碳含量比一个世纪之前多了17倍，这是我们为繁荣付出的代价，而世界上最穷的那些人将承受最多的后果。


We have also been able to watch on our televisions this month what appears to be the final stages in the battle to cap the huge oil spill off the coast of Florida and Louisiana.	本月我们还可以通过电视看到美国佛罗里达和路易斯安那州海岸特大原油泄漏事故的最后封堵阶段。


Will this environmental disaster persuade Americans to look harder at their incontinent use of energy?	但这场环境灾难是否能说服美国人认真思考自身过度的能源消耗？


Will it affect their love affair with the internal combustion engine and air conditioning?	是否会令他们减少对汽车和空调的热爱？


I rather doubt it.	对此我深表怀疑。


Defining progress in ways that make it sustainable and allow us to maintain the best of the past is difficult.	用一种可持续的方式来定义进步，并让我们保存好过往的一切是一件很难的事情。


Opposition to globalization and market forces has often been the preferred way of trying to hang on to an idealized view of what life used to be like.	人们通常都喜欢用反对全球化和市场力量来尝试维持过往的理想生活方式。


This produces paradoxical results here in France, where – despite all the anti-globalization rhetoric – McDonald’s is more popular than anywhere else in Europe.	而这些举措在法国造成了自相矛盾的结果，不管那些反全球化的言论说得多么动听，这里的麦当劳是全欧洲最受欢迎的。


French companies do spectacularly well in the global market place.	法国企业在全球市场上也成绩斐然。


At home, meanwhile, small, distinctively French businesses – cheese makers, patisseries, or restaurateurs – get hammered by heavy taxes and social-welfare costs while supermarkets flourish selling products from Asia.	但在国内，那些小规模而且独特的法国商业——奶酪生产商，法式蛋糕店或者法国餐厅——却被高税率和社会福利支出压得喘不过气来，另一边，那些销售“亚洲制造”的超级市场却生意兴隆。


So, how do we keep the best of what is familiar and foster the identity of our local neighborhoods and regions while embracing the sort of changes that make most of us better off?	那么，我们应该如何在接受那些令生活变得更美好的变化之时，又能保存那些熟悉的事物，并维护我们所在社区以及地区的独特性呢？


How can we make markets and technology serve us rather than – as so often seems to be true – vice versa?	我们又如何能令市场和技术为我们服务，而不是反过来受制于这些东西呢？


One partial solution is to try harder to put a price on what we call progress.	一个局部解决方案就是努力尝试去让那些所谓的进步付出更大代价。


What are the real costs of out-of-town shopping malls in terms of increased traffic and loss of green spaces, for example?	比如说，那些城外的购物中心究竟让我们付出了多少交通和绿化消失的成本？


What may make sense in the vast open reaches of Texas will not necessarily work in rural France or Britain.	那些在地广人稀的美国得克萨斯适用的东西是否就一定适用于法国和英国的乡村？


How can we ensure that technology meets the needs of the poor and does not simply increase the divide between laptop-owning, Blackberry-using Westerners like me and the poor in India or China?	我们如何确保科技能满足穷人的需要，而不是进一步拉大我这些拥有手提电脑和黑莓手机的西方人和印度与中国穷人之间的鸿沟？


Above all, when will we agree to assign real costs to the energy we use, especially carbon-based resources?	最要紧的是，我们什么时候才能同意去计算能源（尤其是碳）消耗的真正成本？


The casualties of our failure to do so will be future generations of flood victims in Asia and China, farmers in drought-hit Russia and Africa, and everyone’s grandchildren, like my five, with whom I have spent this summer.	我们没有这样做的后果承担者将是未来那些亚洲和中国的洪水受害者，以及俄罗斯和非洲那些遭受旱灾的农民，以及我们每个人的孙子辈，比如我那五个孙子孙女。


What sort of legacy will today’s “progress” bequeath to them?	今天的“进步”将给他们留下什么样的遗产？


We like to think that older generations always leave a better world for those that follow.	我们总是认为老一辈总是前人种树，后人乘凉。


Is that still true?	在当今世界，这还是真的吗？


Taking Drug Safety Seriously	严肃对待药品安全


Health hazards – nuclear reactors, guns, and contaminated foods – surround all of us, so governments take an active role in limiting these hazards through regulations, which, in many cases, are very successful.	核反应堆、枪炮以及受到污染的食物等健康危害环绕在我们周围，因此政府积极采取措施限制这些危害，并在许多案例中获得成功。


But the situation is far different concerning the safety of prescription drugs.	但是，一想到处方药的安全性，情势就完全不同了。


Indeed, as far as protecting the public is concerned, drug safety is the regulator’s neglected stepchild.	事实上，从保护公众的角度来看，药品安全是被管理者们遗忘的角落。


The magnitude of the problem is huge.	这是问题范围涉及极广。


In the United States alone, it is estimated that every year up to 100,000 patients die due to serious adverse drug reactions (ADR’s).	仅仅在美国，每年据估计有多达100,000个病人死于药物不良反应（ADR’s）。


If true, drug-induced death would qualify as the fourth or fifth leading cause of death (depending on which mortality estimates are used).	如果真是这样的话，药物引发的死亡数量将在引发死亡原因中（根据使用不同的死亡率估算法）排名第四或第五。


Moreover, the direct annual hospital costs attributable to ADR’s run into the billions of dollars, and this does not include all the suffering that ADR’s cause that does not lead to hospitalization (or death).	此外，医院每年用于ADR’s的直接成本高达几百亿美元，这还不包括那些由ADR’s引起的住院治疗（或死亡）的费用。


The difficulties in determining cause and effect must be acknowledged.	我们必须看到测定病因和效果中的困难。


Whether a patient’s death or hospitalization is due to a particular drug, the underlying illness, or a combination of the two can be hard to determine.	判定一个病人的死亡或住院治疗是由于某一种药物还是潜在的疾病，或者是两者结合的作用，是十分困难的。


But this makes drug safety all the more important.	但是这使得药物安全更为重要。


Inherent to drug safety is the fact that all drugs, in addition to their benefits, cause harm in certain patients.	药品安全所存在的一个固有事实是，药品除了益处之外，都会在某些病人身上引起某种伤害。


Drug approval and use requires a careful weighing of desirable and undesirable effects.	药品的批准和使用要求仔细衡量它的正副效用。


These judgments vary, depending on whether they are made by a drug company, which stands to benefit from sales, or a patient at risk of suffering a serious adverse effect.	这种鉴定结果会根据这个鉴定是由站在销售利益立场上的医药公司做的还是一个有可能遭受严重副作用痛苦的病人做的而产生不同的结果。


Incomplete knowledge complicates this assessment.	不完善的知识加剧了评估的复杂性。


The rush to get new drugs to market often leads to inadequate safety documentation.	让新药进入市场的急潮导致不正确的安全性证明文件。


More than half of all approved drugs produce a serious adverse reaction that is not known at the time of regulatory approval.	一半以上通过批准的药物都会产生某种在其获得监管部门批准之时不知道的严重副作用。


For example, when the new class of painkillers called Cox-2 inhibitors was introduced, regulators, physicians, and patients were unaware that these drugs could cause heart attacks and strokes.	例如，在名叫Cox-2的新一类的止痛药被引进之时，监管部门、内科医生和病人都没有意识到这些药品会引发心脏病发作和中风。


Tens of thousands of innocent patients – perhaps more – suffered such ADR’s before the first two drugs of this class were withdrawn.	成千上万的无辜病人——也许还有更多——在这种新一代的两种新药被召回之前承受了ADR’s的痛苦。


Proper and complete documentation of harmful drug effects is difficult.	正确完整地证明有害的药物效果困难重重。


Spontaneous reporting rates to regulatory agencies are low – approximately 1% – and ongoing monitoring is passive in many countries.	主动向监管部门汇报的比率十分低——大约只有1%——并且在许多国家中，保持不断的监测处于消极态势。


There is also a general reluctance to report unfavorable drug effects.	同时还存在着对汇报药品副作用的普遍抵触情绪。


Physicians may feel guilty and fear litigation, drug companies worry about the threat to corporate profits and regulatory agencies must face the question: “Why was the drug approved in the first place?”	内科医生也许心存愧疚并害怕引起诉讼，药品公司担心这会影响到公司利益，监管部门也必须面对这样一个问题：“为什么药品先前就被批准了？ ”


It is especially difficult to attribute an adverse reaction to a drug if the medical event is common in the user’s age group or in the condition being treated.	如果该药品使用者分龄组中或该用药者的治疗状况中经常出现医疗事故，那么将副作用归咎于药品尤为困难。


Because the risk of heart attacks is high in older people, many of whom have arthritic pain requiring treatment with painkillers, it took six years to link Cox-2 inhibitors to a two- to three-fold increase in the risk of heart attacks.	因为老年人突发心脏病的风险较高，他们中很多人都患有关节炎并需要止痛片的治疗，在六年光景之内，Cox-2止痛剂就会使心脏病突发可能性翻上两番或三番。


A recent Harris Survey in the US concluded that 60% of adults are either not confident at all or not very confident that drug makers will publicly and in a timely manner disclose data on their products’ adverse effects.	最近美国哈里斯调查得出结论，60%的成年人要么完全不相信要么不怎么相信制药商会适时公开披露他们产品的副作用数据。


Their skepticism is hardly groundless: internal documents obtained in recent lawsuits reveal that drug companies often fail to submit critical safety information to regulatory agencies, as required by law, and fail to communicate such information to physicians and patients.	他们的怀疑也不是毫无根据的：最近几起诉讼案中所得到的内部文件显示，医药公司经常未能如法律要求那样向监管部门递交关键的安全信息，并且未能将这种信息传递给医生和病人。


One problem is that the consequences for neglecting drug safety are non-existing or minimal.	问题之一就是忽视药品安全的后果是不存在的或已经最小化。


The time has come to get serious:	是应该严肃对待的时候了。


· Citizens and government must make drug safety a priority and commit adequate resources to fixing the problems;	· 公民和政府必须将药品安全视为头等大事并将合理的资源用于解决问题；


· Penalties for drug companies’ failure to report and communicate safety information must be increased dramatically if they are to serve as effective deterrents;	· 如果要将惩罚作为有效的威慑力量，那么对于未能汇报或传达安全信息的医药公司，必须加大惩罚力度；


· Regulatory agencies need enforcement authority so that stricter rules can be implemented;	· 监管部门需要执行权力，这样更严格的规定才能被执行。


· The drug-safety problem must be seen as a systemic failure.	· 药品安全问题应该被看作一种体系的失败。


It is unfair to blame clinicians for serious ADR’s, particularly in the absence of complete safety information.	因为ADR’s而将责任归咎于内科医生是不公平的，尤其在没有完整的安全信息的情况下。


Fixing the problem requires full cooperation from clinicians, but this requires ending their fear of litigation.	解决这个问题要求来自医生们的全力配合，但是这要求他们消除对诉讼案的恐惧之情。


This approach works well in the airline industry: pilots reporting near misses are not penalized;	这种方法在航空业取得了很好的效果：险些出事的飞行员不会遭受处罚。


· Patients need to be better informed about the risks of prescription drugs and more involved in detection and reporting.	· 病人应当更好地了解处方药的危险性，更多地参与监测与报告；


Package inserts in fine print are useless;	印刷精美的广告是没有用的。


· Monitoring of ADR’s must be more pro-active.	· 必须更为高效地监控ADR’s。


This requires more funding, which should come from the main beneficiary of drug sales – the pharmaceutical industry – just as oversight of aviation safety is funded by the airlines.	这要求更多的资金，���这些资金应当来源于药品销售的主要受益人——制药工业——正如航空安全的纰漏损失由航空公司来负担一样。


Above all, the success of any comprehensive effort to improve drug safety hinges upon establishing an independent office of drug safety to advocate, coordinate, and provide direction to the regulatory agenda.	最重要的是，任何为提高药品安全的全球性努力的成功都以建立一个独立的药品安全办公室为基础，这个办公室将提倡、调节并为管制议程提供方向。


Such an office exists in the United Kingdom.	英国已经存在这种办公室了。


Other governments should follow this model in order to fulfill their neglected role as guardian of public health.	其他的国家应当效仿这个榜样以履行被他们忽略的公众健康卫士的责任。


Taking Sides in the War Within Islam	在伊斯兰教内战中站边


PARIS – French Prime Minister Manuel Valls was right when he recently said that there is no good excuse for jihadism.	巴黎—法国总理瓦尔斯最近说，圣战主义的借口都不是好借口，他是对的。


Rejecting the culture of excuses, said Valls, also meant resisting the temptation to dwell on explanations of the jihadist impulse.	瓦尔斯说，拒绝借口文化意味着抵制深思圣战冲动的解释的诱惑。


And Valls was right again on April 4 when he warned against the danger of an ideological victory for Salafism, the doctrine underlying jihadism, which views Europe (and, within Europe, France) as prime ground for proselytization.	4月4日，瓦尔斯又对了一次，他警告沙拉菲派可能赢得意识形态胜利。 沙拉菲派思想是圣战主义的基本思想，它将欧洲（以及欧洲之内的法国）视为传教的主要目标。


Successive French governments, over three decades, abdicated responsibility for engaging in this debate.	过去三十年来，诸任法国政府都逃避参与这一争论的责任。


But while passivity may have ensured social peace in the short term, it enabled values other than those of the republic to take root in wide swaths of French cities.	但是，尽管消极态度确保了短期的社会和平，却也让与法国公众不同的价值观在法国各大城市大量生根发芽。


And this was followed by willful blindness, as governments refused to recognize that militant Islamic fundamentalism was actually Islamo-fascism, the third global variant of totalitarianism that diehard critics had been decrying for a quarter-century.	然后又继之以一厢情愿的盲目，政府拒绝承认军事伊斯兰原教旨其实就是伊斯兰法西斯，即顽固派批评家四分之一世纪以来一直在大声疾呼的第三种全球极权主义变体。


This failure of government was abetted by the complicit myopia prevailing at the extremes of the political spectrum.	政府的这一失败的背后是普遍存在于政治界极端的合同近视（complicit myopia）。


In 2012, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, lumped together (in order to condemn them both) the religious symbol that is the yarmulke and the political emblem that is the veil.	2012年，极右翼的国民阵线领导人马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）将作为宗教象征的犹太圆顶小帽和作为政治象征的面纱相提并论（为了同时谴责它们）。


And just this month, Green Senator Esther Benbassa claimed that a miniskirt is no less alienating than a chador.	就在这个月，绿党参议员以斯贴·班巴萨（Esther Benbassa）宣布超短裙的异类不下于罩袍。


What were Le Pen and Benbassa doing if not making acceptable a form of barbarism whose occasionally human face should never allow us to forget that people are killing, maiming, and raping in its name?	如果不是让某种形式的野蛮变得不可接受（这种野蛮偶尔露出人脸，这不应该让我们忘记人们正在以它的名义杀戮、伤害和强奸），勒庞和班巴萨在做什么？


Compounding the problem is the well-known advantage that extremists have over moderates, by virtue of yelling the loudest.	让问题更加复杂的是众所周知的极端派对温和派的优势，这是“喉咙响”带来的好处。


Just as the Montagnards drowned out the Girondins in the Legislative Assembly during the French Revolution, the rabid jihadists are drowning out the large number of Muslims who want nothing more than to be left alone to practice their faith in peace and with respect for others and the law.	正如法国大革命期间山岳派在立法大会上让吉伦特派遭遇灭顶之灾，极端的圣战分子也在让大量仅仅想要安静和平地实践自己的信仰、尊重他人和法律的穆斯林遭遇灭顶之灾。


And finally, there is the timorous backpedaling we tend to see from our leaders whenever religious fanatics stigmatize those who offend them.	最后，我们总是看到，每当宗教狂热分子羞辱那些得罪他们的人时，我们的领导人们总是噤若寒蝉。


Yesterday it was the Indian novelist Salman Rushdie; today it is the Algerian novelist Kamel Daoud.	昨天是印度小说家萨尔曼·鲁西迪（Salman Rushdie），今天是阿尔及利亚小说家卡梅尔·达乌德（Kamel Daoud）。


The first reflex of too many leaders at such times is to stigmatize the victims a second time, by suggesting that they were asking for it.	每逢此时，太多领导人的第一反应是第二次羞辱受害者——表示这是他们自找的。


In any event, the result is plain: Appeasement of violent radicalism only encourages more of the same.	每一次，结果都是显而易见的：对暴力激进主义的绥靖只能让它们变本加厉。


As a consequence, we find ourselves in an undeclared state of intellectual emergency, one that, regrettably, has given rise to the states of emergency that our governments proclaim in the wake of terrorist attacks.	结果，我们陷入了一种未宣布的知识紧急状态（state of intellectual emergency），令人遗憾的是，这种状态酝酿了恐怖袭击发生后政府所宣布的紧急状态。


Dealing with this emergency requires, above all, saying and doing the opposite of what has most often been said and done.	应对这一经济状态首先需要反通常的言行之道而行之。


Specifically, we must call a spade a spade.	具体而言，我们必须直言不讳。


An Islamist may be a lost Muslim or a Muslim gone astray, but he or she is a Muslim all the same.	一位伊斯兰主义者也许是一位迷失的穆斯林，或一位穆斯林炮灰，但他仍然是穆斯林。


We must stop repeating ad nauseam that these aberrant Muslims have “nothing to do with Islam.”	我们必须停止反复地令人作呕地强调这些反常的穆斯林“和伊斯兰教没有任何关系”。


In other words, we must acknowledge that two Islams are locked in a fight to the death, and that because the battlefield is the planet and the war threatens values that the West embraces, the fight is not solely the Muslims’ affair.	换句话说，我们必须承认两个伊斯兰教陷入了一场死亡斗争，而由于战场是地球，战争威胁到西方所持有的价值，因此这场战斗不仅仅是穆斯林的事务。


Once we do that, we must devote ourselves to identifying, untangling, and exposing the networks of Islamic hate and terror with the same energy and ingenuity that are now being applied to unraveling the global schemes of tax evaders.	一旦这样做了，我们必须致力于辨别、厘清和曝光伊斯兰仇恨和恐怖网络，倾注与曝光的全球逃税机制一样的能量和才智。


How long will we have to wait for the Panama Papers of Salafism?	我们还要等多久才能等到沙拉菲派的巴拿马文件（Panama Papers）？


What is stopping the great newspapers from flushing out from the dark web the Mossack Fonsecas of global jihad and its criminal offshore companies?	是什么让大报不去挖掘全球圣战界的Massack Monsecas律师事务所的地下网络及其离岸犯罪公司？


We must also aid, encourage, and ideologically arm Muslims who reject the Islam of hate in favor of an Islam respectful of women, their faces, and their rights, as well as of human rights in general. Is that not what we did in the not-so-distant past with regard to the brave people we called dissidents in the Soviet world?	我们还必须帮助、鼓励和从思想上武装拒绝仇恨的伊斯兰教、偏向尊重女性、女性的面孔和女性的权利以及普通人权的穆斯林。


And were we not right, at the time, to ignore those who told us that the dissidents were a minority who would never, ever, prevail against the granite ideology of communism?	我们对于为时尚不远的被我们称为苏维埃世界持异见者的勇敢的人们不也是这么做的吗？


That means protecting and defending Daoud (to take just one current example), a French-language writer of Muslim origin who suggested that those seeking sanctuary in Europe would do well to learn to appreciate European values.	这意味着保护和捍卫达乌德（仅举一个最近的例子），他是穆斯林法语作家，认为在欧洲寻求避难的人学习欣赏欧洲价值是一件大好事。


For that, Daoud has been saddled with a double fatwa: one from his “assassin brothers,” to borrow the Algerian-French journalist Mohamed Sifaoui’s phrase, and another from a handful of supposedly progressive and anti-racist French intellectuals who accused him of “recycling the most hackneyed clichés of Orientalism” when he urged Arab men to respect the dignity of women.	因此，达乌德受到了双重追杀：一是来自他的“刺客兄弟”（assassin brothers，借用阿尔及利亚裔法国记者穆罕默德·西法乌伊（Mohamed Sifaoui）的话说），二是来自少数应属于进步和反种族主义的法国知识分子，当达乌德敦促阿拉伯男人尊重女性尊严时，他们指责他“回收利用最陈腐的东方主义滥调”。


Genuine anti-racists, anti-imperialists, and believers in republican democracy must take the side of the Islam of moderation and peace in its war against the criminal Islam of the Salafists.	真正的反种族主义者、反帝国主义者以及信奉共和民主者，在现代化和和平伊斯兰教与沙拉菲派的犯罪伊斯兰教的战争中必须站在前者一方。


It is a war that is ideological, theological, and political, a war that cuts across worlds, cultures, and what we are right to call civilizations, from the lost city neighborhoods of France to those areas – for example, Kurdistan, Morocco, Bosnia, and Bangladesh – where enlightened Islam remains alive and well.	这是一场意识形态战争，一场神学战争，一场政治战争，它席卷全世界、各种文化和所有名副其实的文明，不管是陷落的法国城市社区，还是开明伊斯兰教依然活跃的地区——如库尔德斯坦、摩洛哥、波斯尼亚和孟加拉国。


That, in broad strokes, is our urgent task.	从宏观看，这才是我们的紧要任务。


This is our war.	这是我们的战争。


Beating the Child Killers	战胜儿童杀手


GENEVA – Ask most people to name the two biggest causes of death among children, and they will most likely say malaria and HIV.	日内瓦—调查一下人们对儿童最大两个死因的看法，他们几乎会异口同声地说是疟疾和HIV。


In fact, it is pneumonia and diarrhea – the “forgotten killers” – that are responsible for the highest death toll, claiming more than two million of the most vulnerable lives every year.	而事实上，造成最高死亡人数的是肺炎和痢疾——“被遗忘的杀手”，它们每年要夺走200万条最脆弱的生命。


Together, these two diseases account for 29% of all deaths of children under five years old.	这两种疾病加起来占了5岁以下儿童死亡原因的29%。


That is more than double the total for HIV and malaria combined, and nearly as many as all other infectious diseases, injuries, and other post-neonatal conditions put together.	这比HIV和疟疾加起来高一倍多，相当于所有其他传染病、伤害和其他新生儿急性病之和。


Yet as shocking as these statistics are, what is perhaps even more surprising is just how preventable pneumonia and diarrhea are – so much so that it would be quite feasible to introduce measures that by 2025 would reduce their death toll to almost zero.	但是，尽管统计数字如此令人震惊，但更令人惊奇的是肺炎和痢疾完全是可防的——只要措施得当，极有可能在2025年将它们的致死人数降至零。


That is precisely what we are now aiming to do.	这就是我们现在的目标。


An ambitious new plan, called the Integrated Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhea, launched this month by the World Health Organization and UNICEF, aims to step up existing interventions and pool global efforts, with the goal of reducing the number of deaths from pneumonia to less than three children per 1,000, and of diarrhea-related deaths to below one in 1,000.	本月，世界卫生组织和联合国儿童基金会发布了一个旨在加快已有干预措施、组织全球力量的雄心勃勃的新计划，即全球预防和控制肺炎和痢疾统一行动计划（Integrated Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhea），该计划的目标是使肺炎致儿童死亡率下降至千分之三以下，痢疾相关死亡率下降至千分之一以下。


This would effectively end the preventable deaths of more than two million children every year.	这将在事实上结束每年200万儿童死于可防疾病的历史。


For any other infectious disease or global health threat, achieving this kind of reduction in incidence rate and mortality would be nothing short of miraculous.	对其他任何传染病或全球健康威胁来说，达到类似的降低致病率和死亡率目标不啻奇迹。


Yet, for pneumonia and diarrhea, we have every reason to believe that we can succeed, because we already know what works.	但是，对肺炎和痢疾来说，我们有充分的理由相信这可以达到，因为我们已经知晓应该怎么做。


For example, infants who are not exclusively breastfed for the first six months have a ten-fold increase in the risk of death from diarrhea, and are 15 times more likely to die from pneumonia.	比如，出生后六个月内非完全母乳哺育的婴儿因痢疾致死风险会增加十倍，因肺炎致死风险会增加十五倍。


Similarly, basic sanitation, such as improved hand washing and access to clean water, and better nutrition can also produce significant risk reduction, much of which can be achieved through simple education programs.	类似地，基本卫生条件（比如改善洗手方式和获得清洁水源）和加强营养也可以极大地降低风险，很多时候只要简单的教育计划就能达到目标。


Immunization is also highly effective.	免疫也是一种高效方式。


Vaccinating children against rotavirus, for example, can protect them from a pathogen that is responsible for 37% of all diarrhea deaths in children under five, thus saving 450,000 lives every year.	比如，接种轮状病毒疫苗的儿童可以抵抗一种导致5岁以下儿童37%的痢疾死亡的病原体，从而每年能可以拯救450000条生命。


Similarly, vaccines exist to protect against pneumococcal disease, which accounts for a half-million pneumonia-related deaths annually.	类似地还有肺炎球菌疫苗，肺炎球菌疾病每年造成一半的肺炎相关疾病死亡。


When combined, these interventions significantly reduce both pneumonia and diarrhea; the problem is that, too often, they do not reach the children most at risk, such as those living in extreme poverty or hard-to-reach communities in the world’s poorest countries.	加在一起，这些干预措施可以大幅降低肺炎和痢疾发病率； 问题在于，它们往往难以抵达最危险的儿童，比如生活于极端贫困或世界最穷国家最偏远社区的儿童。


That is why we now need the Integrated Global Action Plan.	这就是为何我们需要全球统一行动计划。


The two diseases share so many common causes and risk factors, prevention strategies and interventions, and delivery platforms for care in clinics, communities, and schools that it makes sense to bring them together.	这两种疾病的共同原因和风险因素很多，预防战略和干预措施以及诊所、社区和学校治疗实施平台也大同小异，因此将它们并在一起解决是个好主意。


But, if those hard-to-reach children are to benefit, our efforts must be scaled up significantly.	但是，要想让偏远地区儿童受益，我们的努力必须大大地扩大规模。


Until recently, this simply would not have been possible, at least not on the immunization front.	到目前为止，这几乎是个不可能的任务，至少在免疫阵线是如此。


The vaccines protecting against rotavirus and pneumococcal disease are both barely more than a decade old.	轮状病毒和肺炎球状菌疾病疫苗产生才刚刚十年。


In the past, such new vaccines would take, on average, 15 years to reach developing countries – and then at prices that would place them beyond the reach of those most in need.	在过去，新疫苗平均需要15年时间才能到达发展中国家，且其价格远非最需要它们的人群所能负担。


This is one of the reasons why my organization, the GAVI Alliance, was created: to help accelerate the introduction of new vaccines and make them more affordable and accessible in developing countries.	这就是我的组织——GAVI联盟创立的原因之一：帮助加速新疫苗的普及，并让它们为发展中国家所能负担和获得。


Through our unique public-private business model, we have worked with our partners to help increase supplies of these vaccines while simultaneously bringing down their price.	通过我们独一无二的公私业务模式，我们和合作伙伴一起协助增加疫苗的供应，同时降低其价格。


Indeed, since 2006, the price of rotavirus vaccine has fallen by 67%, to just $2.50 per dose, while the price of a dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has plummeted by 90%, to $3.50.	事实上，自2006年以来，轮状病毒一秒价格下降了67%，每针价格已在2. 5美元之下，而肺炎球菌结合疫苗的每针价格已经下降了90%至3.


Such price reductions have and will continue to play a crucial role in saving the lives of millions of children and achieving the Millennium Development Goal of reducing child mortality by two-thirds.	降价在拯救数百万儿童生命和实现将儿童死亡率降低三分之二的千年发展目标方面起到了关键作用并将继续扮演重要角色。


To date, GAVI has helped countries immunize more than 13 million children against pneumococcal disease and five million children against rotavirus, with plans to strengthen its efforts in countries where immunization coverage is below 70%.	到目前为止，GAVI帮助各国的1300多万儿童接种了肺炎球菌疾病疫苗，500多万儿童接种了轮状病毒疫苗，并提出了在接种率低于70%的国家强化行动的计划。


None of this means that we will not still face significant obstacles.	所有这些都不意味着我们不再会面临重大障碍。


But the one thing that we know about immunization is that we can reach everyone.	但我们所知道的的关于免疫的一个要点是，我们可以让它普及到每一个人。


We did it with smallpox, which has now been eradicated, and we are doing it with polio (with less than 100 cases worldwide this year).	被消灭的天花就是如此，小儿麻痹症也是如此（今年全球发病率不足100例）。


The challenge now is to do the same with all of our life-saving vaccines – particularly those that target the biggest killers of children.	当前的挑战是在我们的救命疫苗上依样画葫芦——特别是针对最大儿童杀手的疫苗。


Talent versus Capital in the Twenty-First Century	二十一世纪的人才与资本之争


GENEVA – When financial policymakers attempt to promote economic growth, they almost invariably focus on looking for new ways to unleash capital.	日内瓦—金融决策者在试图刺激经济增长时，几乎毫无例外地聚焦于解放资本的新方法。


But, although this approach may have worked in the past, it risks giving short shrift to the role that talent plays in generating and realizing the ideas that make growth possible.	但是，尽管这一方针在过去也许起了作用，但它也会导致忽略人才在构想和实现让增长成为可能的思想方面的作用。


Indeed, in a future of rapid technological change and widespread automation, the determining factor – or crippling limit – to innovation, competiveness, and growth is less likely to be the availability of capital than the existence of a skilled workforce.	事实上，在技术变革迅速、自动化大行其道的未来，创新、竞争力和增长的决定性因素——或天花板——更可能在于能否获得高技能劳动力而不是资本。


Geopolitical, demographic, and economic forces are relentlessly reshaping labor markets.	地缘政治、人口和经济力量无情地改变着劳动力市场。


Technology, in particular, is changing the nature of work itself, rendering entire sectors and occupations obsolete, while creating completely new industries and job categories.	特别是技术，它正在改变劳动本身，淘汰一整套部门和职位，同时创造全新的行业和岗位类别。


By some estimates, almost half of today’s professions could be automatable by 2025.	一些人估算，今天的职业有将近一半可能在2025年实现自动化。


Speculation about what will replace them ranges from predictions of unexpected opportunities to forecasts of large-scale unemployment as machines displace most human labor.	取而代之的会是哪些东西？ 有人预测会出现出人意料的机会，有人预测会因为机器取代大部分人类劳动力而出现大面积失业。


The first signs of this disruption are already visible.	这一破坏趋势的初步迹象已经显现。


Global unemployment has topped 212 million, according to the International Labor Organization, and another 42 million new jobs will need to be created each year if the world economy is to provide employment to the growing number of new entrants into the labor market.	根据国际劳工组织的数据，全球失业总人数已达2. 12亿，而如果想要给越来越多的新晋劳动力大军提供就业，每年就需要创造4,200万个新岗位。


Meanwhile, last year, 36% of employers worldwide reported facing difficulties in finding talent, the highest percentage in seven years.	与此同时，去年全世界有36%的雇主报告人才难觅，为七年来最高比例。


Addressing this mismatch in supply and demand will require governments, business leaders, educational institutions, and individuals to overcome incentives to focus on the short term and begin to plan for a future in which change is the only constant.	纠正这一供需失配问题需要政府、商业领袖、教育机构和个人克服短视，开始为以变化为唯一永恒的未来规划。


All must rethink what it means to learn, the nature of work, and the roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders in ensuring that workers around the world are able to fulfill their potential.	所有人都必须反思这对学习、工作的性质以及各类相关利益方在确保全世界工人都能实现其潜力方面的角色和责任的意义。


Human-resource executives at some of the world’s largest companies anticipate profound disruptions from the increased adoption of mobile Internet and cloud technology, the use of big data, flexible work arrangements, 3-D printing, advanced materials, and new energy supplies, according to early results from a survey by the World Economic Forum.	世界经济论坛的调查表明，一些世界最大公司的人力资源高管认为，移动互联网和云技术的不断采用、大数据的使用、弹性工作安排、3-D打印、先进材料和新能源供给将带来影响深远的破坏。


Their view of the overall impact on employment levels in their industries was for the most part positive – provided that new workforce skills can be developed rapidly in their own sectors and in the labor market more broadly.	他们对于本行业就业水平所受总体影响的判断是，绝大部分情况下影响是积极的——如果本行业以及更广义的劳动力市场中的新劳动力技能能够快速发展的话。


As technology increasingly takes over knowledge-based work, the cognitive skills that are central to today’s education systems will remain important; but behavioral and non-cognitive skills necessary for collaboration, innovation, and problem solving will become essential as well.	技术正在日益接管基于知识的工作，作为当下教育体系核心的认知技能将仍然十分重要； 但合作、创新和决绝问题所需要的行为和非认知技能也将是必不可少的。


Today’s schools and universities, which are dominated by approaches to learning that are fundamentally individualistic and competitive in nature, must be redesigned to focus on learning to learn and acquiring the skills needed to collaborate with others.	在今天的学校和大学，主流学习方针根本上是个性主义，性质上是竞争，这必须重新制定，将重点放在学会学习和掌握与他人合作的技能。


Uniquely human skills, like being able to work in teams, manage relationships, and understand cultural sensitivities will become vital for businesses across all sectors and must become a core component of future generations’ education.	独特的人力技能——如能够团队合作、管理关系、理解文化敏感性——对于各行业企业都将至关重要并且必将成为未来教育的核心要素。


Moreover, with education increasingly becoming a lifelong pursuit, businesses must rethink their role in providing for a competitive workforce.	此外，随着教育日渐成为终身追求，企业必须反思它们在提供竞争性劳动力方面的角色。


Some companies have already grasped this and are investing in their employees’ continuous learning, re-skilling, and up-skilling.	一些公司已经抓住了这一点，并开始投资于员工的持续教育、技能再造和技能升级。


Yet most employers still expect to obtain pre-trained talent from schools, universities, and other companies.	但大部分雇主仍指望从学校、大学和其他公司招到已培训完成的人才。


Business will increasingly have to work with educators and governments to help education systems keep up with the needs of the labor market.	企业将日益必须与教育机构和政府合作帮助教育体系适应劳动力市场需求。


Given rapid change in the skill sets required for many occupations, business must redirect investment to on-the-job training and lifelong learning, particularly as millennials enter the workforce, seeking purpose and diversity of experience where their predecessors sought remuneration and stability.	许多岗位所需要的技能变化日新月异，企业必须将投资引向在职培训和终身学习，特别是，随着千禧一代加入劳动力大军，他们追求的是志向和经验的多样化，而不像前辈那样追求薪酬和稳定。


Business cycles naturally entail peaks and troughs in employment, and socially responsible businesses should follow successful examples like Coca-Cola, Alcoa, Saudi Aramco, Africa Rainbow Minerals, and Google in working toward mitigating joblessness and enhancing people’s abilities to earn a livelihood.	商业周期自然包含着就业的波峰和���谷，富于社会责任心的企业应该效仿可口可乐、美国铝业、沙特阿美（Saudi Aramco）、非洲彩虹矿业（Africa Rainbow Minerals）和谷歌等公司，致力于减少失业、加强人们找到生计的能力。


Governments, too, have a role to play in creating an environment in which their citizens can reach their potential.	政府也应该起作用，为公民创造能实现潜力的环境。


Policymakers must use stronger metrics to assess human capital and reexamine investment in education, curriculum design, hiring and firing practices, women’s integration into the workforce, retirement policies, immigration legislation, and welfare policies. Regulatory support for entrepreneurship and small and medium-size enterprises remains one of the most underused means of unleashing creativity, enhancing growth, and generating employment.	决策者必须用更强的指标评估人力资本、重新考察教育投资、课程设计、招聘和解聘行为、女性劳动力参与度、退休政策、移民立法和福利政策。


Protecting workers and consumers is critical, but shielding specific industries from the impact of new business models will not hold off the next wave of transformation.	保护工人和消费者是关键，保护让个别行业免受新商业模式冲击无法阻挡新一轮转型潮。


Rather than seeking to rein in disruptive businesses such as Airbnb and Uber, governments should introduce regulations that enable their sustained growth, while looking for ways to leverage their technologies and entrepreneurial approaches to boost social welfare.	政府不应该阻挡Airbnb和Uber等破坏性企业，而应该引入监管使它们能够持续增长，同时寻求利用它们的技术和企业家方法提高社会福利。


Such policies include online education courses for the unemployed, digital workers’ insurance, virtual unionization, and tax policies geared for the sharing economy.	这类政策包括为失业者提供在线教育课程、数字化员工保险、虚拟工会化和适合共享经济的税收政策。


Unlocking the world’s latent talent, and thus its full capacity for growth, requires us to look beyond business cycles and quarterly reports.	解放全世界潜在才华、实现增长能力充分开发需要我们把眼光跳出商业周期和季报。


The future is full of potential, but only if we are smart enough – and courageous enough – to grasp it.	未来充满了潜力，但要抓住这一潜力，我们必须足够聪明、足够勇敢。


Pakistan After the Peshawar Massacre	白沙瓦大屠杀后的巴基斯坦


LAHORE – On December 16, the Taliban attacked an army school in Peshawar and killed 132 children and nine adults.	拉合尔—12月16日，塔利班袭击了白沙瓦的一所军事学校，杀害了132名少年儿童和九名成年人。


Eight terrorists dressed in military uniform penetrated the school’s well-guarded perimeter and opened fire on the students and school personnel.	八名恐怖分子身穿军装穿过学校戒备森严的外围，向学生和学校工作人员开火。


Pakistani army commandos fought the intruders for several hours before killing the last attacker.	巴基斯坦陆军突击队和入侵者激战数小时才将他们肃清。


The assault on the military school was the single deadliest attack in the Taliban’s history.	对该军事学校的袭击是塔利班历史上杀人数量最多的单次袭击。


The question now is whether it will turn out to be a turning point for Pakistan in its relations with the group.	现在的问题是，这是否会成为巴基斯坦与塔利班集团关系的转折点。


Pakistan’s military is the country’s most respected and powerful institution.	巴基斯坦军方是该国威信最高、权力最大的机构。


By attacking the children of military families, the Taliban has dramatically increased the likelihood that Pakistan will move resolutely against it.	通过袭击军人子弟，塔利班极大地增加了巴基斯坦与其决裂的可能性。


This may, of course, take some time.	当然，这也许需要一些时间。


A Pakistani court’s decision to grant bail to Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, who is accused of masterminding the 2008 terror attack that killed 166 people in Mumbai, underscores the challenge of getting every Pakistani government institution on board.	巴基斯坦一家法院裁决导致孟买166人丧生的2008年恐怖袭击的策划人拉赫维（Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi）准予保释，这凸显出一项挑战——要让巴基斯坦各大政府机构团结起来。


Pakistan has had a complicated relationship with the Taliban.	巴基斯坦与塔利班的关系错综复杂。


The country’s intelligence services had a hand in the group’s formation and in its rise to power in neighboring Afghanistan.	巴情报机构与塔利班集团的形成及其在邻国阿富汗的崛起并掌权有着莫大的关系。


Many in the international community suspect that some in the Pakistani military and its spy networks continued to support the Taliban even after the country joined what then-US President George W. Bush called “the war on terror” in 2001.	国际社会中有不少人怀疑巴基斯坦军方中的一些人和间谍网络在巴基斯坦加入了时任美国总统小布什2001年发起的所谓“反恐战争”后仍在继续支持塔利班。


More recently, however, three crucial developments have altered the environment in which Islamic extremists operate in Pakistan.	但是，此后的三起关键事件改变了伊斯兰极端分子在巴基斯坦的活动环境。


For starters, in November 2013, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appointed General Raheel Sharif as Chief of Staff of the Pakistani army.	首先，2013年11月，总理谢里夫任命拉希尔·谢里夫（Raheel Sharif）将军为陆军参谋长。


Sharif views Islamic extremism as an existential threat that needs to be faced and defeated.	谢里夫将伊斯兰极端主义视为需要直面并战胜的生存威胁。


In a conversation I had with the general when he visited Washington, DC last month, he placed Islamic extremism well ahead of Pakistan’s poorly performing economy and immature political system on the list of problems that the country must confront.	上个月，在谢里夫将军访问华盛顿期间，我和他做了一番会谈，他认为，伊斯兰极端主义是一个比巴基斯坦表现糟糕的经济和有欠成熟的政治制度重要得多的问题。


Pakistan, he said, has the strength – and now the political will – to move decisively against terrorism.	他说，巴基斯坦有实力——也有政治意愿——对恐怖主义采取果断行动。


In June, the Pakistani army launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb, an effort to eliminate terrorist hideouts and safe areas in North Waziristan, one of the tribal areas along the border region with Afghanistan.	6月，巴基斯坦军方实施了Zarb-e-Azb行动以清除恐怖分子在北瓦济里斯坦的藏身所和安全区。 北瓦济里斯坦是一个部落地区，与阿富汗接壤。


For Sharif, the offensive is just the beginning of an all-out effort that will take time to produce the desired result.	对谢里夫来说，这一行动只是迟早会产生想要的结果的全力出击的开始。


“There will be difficulties on the way, and three of them have already occurred,” he told me.	“过程中会有许多困难，并且有三个困难已经发生了。 ”他对我说。


Following this summer’s attacks on Karachi’s international airport, a naval base, and a crowd gathered on the India-Pakistan border to witness a popular display of force by each side’s guards, the Peshawar massacre makes it four.	今年夏天，卡拉奇国际机场、某海军基地遭遇袭击，印巴边界的居民还目睹了双方军队集结对峙。 白沙瓦大屠杀是第四个困难。


The second key development is the election in Afghanistan of President Ashraf Ghani.	第二个关键事件是贾尼当选阿富汗总统。


A former senior World Bank official, Ghani is interested not only in finding a durable solution to the problem of Islamic extremism, but also in setting his country on a path of sustainable economic development.	贾尼是前世界银行高级官员，他不但有意寻求伊斯兰极端主义问题的持久解决之道，也试图将阿富汗引上可持续经济发展之路。


Moreover, Ghani has been persuaded that he needs Pakistan’s help on both fronts.	此外，贾尼被说服相信他需要在这两条战线上获得巴基斯坦的帮助。


One of Pakistan’s first actions after the Peshawar school attack was to approach Ghani’s government and ensure that Afghan authorities blocked the escape routes of those involved in planning and executing it.	白沙瓦学校袭击发生后，巴基斯坦的第一反应之一是请贾尼政府保证阿富汗当局关闭参与策划和执行此次袭击的相关人员的出逃之路。


Indeed, Sharif visited Ghani in Kabul just a few hours after the attack, and, even as the battle was still underway, Pakistan’s military launched airstrikes on terrorist hideouts along the countries’ border, after intelligence officials concluded that the attack had been planned by a group operating in that area.	事实上，袭击发生后数小时，谢里夫就赴喀布尔与贾尼进行了会晤，而在战斗尚未结束时，根据情报官员做出的袭击系由藏身于国界沿线的恐怖分子所策划的结论，巴基斯坦军方对这些藏身处发动了空袭。


The third development is the sudden rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.	第三个事件是伊斯兰国在伊拉克和叙利亚的悍然崛起。


The group’s brutality is not so much an expression of religious belief as of tribal traditions that have, over the centuries, shaped a narrow, fanatical interpretation of Islam.	该集团的残忍与其说是在表达宗教信仰，不如说体现了部族传统——经过几个世纪的变化，这些传统形成了对伊斯兰教义的狭隘、狂热的解读。


This is the source of much of the trouble in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well.	这也是阿富汗和巴基斯坦的重要麻烦源。


Bringing the tribal system and its mores into the mainstream and under the rule of law will be an important component in the effort to end the reign of terror in both countries.	将部落制度和习俗纳入主流社会、接受法治精神约束将是结束两国恐怖统治的重要组成部分。


The border where Operation Zarb-e-Azb is taking place highlights the importance of all three developments.	实施Zarb-e-Azb行动的边界区凸显出所有这三个事件的重要性。


To this day, Afghanistan has not recognized the Durand Line – drawn by a British diplomat in 1893 and imposed on Afghanistan by India’s colonial rulers – as the formal border with Pakistan.	到目前为止，阿富汗尚未承认由英国外交官在1893年所划并由印度殖民统治者强加给阿富汗的杜兰德线（Durand Line）为正式的阿巴边界线。


Afghanistan was the only state that opposed Pakistan’s entry into the United Nations when it gained independence from British rule in 1947, contributing to nearly 70 years of bilateral tensions.	阿富汗是1947年巴基斯坦独立后加入联合国的唯一一个反对国，这导致两国近70年来双边关系一直很紧张。


The Durand Line bisects the territory of several Pashtun tribes, including the Mehsuds and the Haqqanis.	杜兰德线将一些普什图部落的领地一分为二，包括梅苏德（Mehsuds）和玛卡尼（Maqqanis）。


The former have supplied the leadership and foot soldiers to the Pakistani Taliban and the latter has fought, often with devastating effect, against the government in Kabul and American and NATO troops.	前者为巴基斯坦塔利班贡献了领袖和步兵，后者则与喀布尔政府以及美国和北约部队作战，时常造成伤亡。


Both groups aim to replace their countries’ governments with an Islamic caliphate, based on what they interpret as the tenets of Islam.	着两个集团都想用伊斯兰哈里发帝国取代所在国家政府——他们认为这是伊斯兰教义。


Over the decades, the governments in Islamabad and Kabul have done little to remove the sanctuaries established by the two groups, whose members freely cross the poorly patrolled frontier.	几十年来，伊斯兰堡和喀布尔政府在剿灭这两个集团的据点方面收效甚微，他们能够自由穿行于巡防松弛的边界间。


Today, the two countries have a chance to mend ties and join forces to rein in Islamic extremists on both sides of the border.	如今，两国有机会弥合关系，采取联合行动打击边界两端的伊斯兰极端分子。


This week’s slaughter of schoolchildren in Peshawar could be the tipping point.	本周对白沙瓦学生的屠杀可能是一个引爆点。


Talking Sense About Global Warming	对全球变暖的理性讨论


LONDON – In February, 14 distinguished climate scientists, economists, and policy experts came together to discuss how to tackle global warming.	发自伦敦——在今年二月，一群包括气候学家，经济学家以及政策专家在内的14位著名学者汇聚一堂，商讨如何应对全球变暖。


This week, the London School of Economics and Oxford University are publishing their conclusions. They are worth considering.	本周，伦敦经济学院和伦敦大学联合发布了他们的研究结论，而这些结论是值得我们去认真思考的。


The group was brought together by Gwyn Prins, a well-regarded expert in security policy and international relations who heads LSE’s Mackinder Programme for the Study of Long Wave Events.	这个研究小组的召集人是格温·普林斯（Gwyn Prins），一位在安全政策和国际关系方面享誉盛名的专家，同时也是伦敦经济学院麦克金德长波事务研究项目（Mackinder Programme for the Study of Long Wave Events）的带头人。


Participants included climate scientist Mike Hulme of the University of East Anglia, climate policy expert Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado, and climate economist Christopher Green of McGill University.	参与者包括西英格兰大学的气候学家麦克·霍尔姆（Mike Hulme），科罗拉多州立大学的气候政策专家小罗杰·皮尔克（Roger Pielke Jr. ），还有麦克基尔大学的气候经学家克里斯托弗·格林（Christopher Green）。


The group’s report, “The Hartwell Paper,” outlines a new direction for climate policy after the collapse of last year’s attempts to negotiate a global climate deal.	在去年达成全球气候协议的尝试遭遇失败之后，该研究小组所得出的研究成果《哈特维尔报告（The Hartwell Paper）》为我们指明了一条新的路径。


The authors note that 18 years of the “Kyoto Protocol approach” to international climate policy have failed to produce any discernable real-world reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases.	报告指出，自《京都议定书》签订18年以来，通过这份协议的运作模式来寻求达成国际气候政策的举措并没有成功实现任何实质性的温室气体减排。


What defines the Kyoto approach, of course, is a single-minded focus on cutting carbon-dioxide emissions.	而所谓“京都模式”，当然就是指那种把所有心思都放在二氧化碳减排上的做法。


“The Hartwell Paper” argues that the Kyoto approach, based as it is on past experience with relatively simple environmental problems like acid rain, was always doomed to failure.	对此《哈特维尔报告》认为，从以前在处理酸雨这种相对简单的气候问题所得到的经验上看，“京都模式”往往都注定以失败告终。


The group points out that it makes no sense to compare climate change to other environmental challenges that we have faced and solved.	研究小组同时也指出，不应把我们曾经面对并解决的气候挑战来和气候变化问题作比较。


Climate change is much more complicated, involving open, complex, and imperfectly understood systems.	因为气候变化问题更加复杂，对这个问题的认知也是开放性，多层次和不完善的。


Unlike, say, acid rain or smog, it is not “a conventional environmental ‘problem.’” It is as much “an energy problem, an economic development problem, or a land-use problem.”	它不像酸雨或者灰霾那样是一个“常规环境问题”，而更像一个能源问题，经济发展问题以及土地使用问题。


Climate economists widely acknowledge that there are only four policy levers that can be used in an attempt to lower carbon emissions and rein in climate change: reducing the world’s population, shrinking the global economy, increasing the efficiency of energy consumption, and decreasing carbon intensity (meaning that we create less carbon for each unit of energy that we produce).	事实上，气候经济学家们普遍承认，在降低碳排放并阻止气候变化方面只有四个政策杠杆可供利用：一是减少世界人口； 二是收缩世界经济；


Reducing global population is implausible, and deliberately reducing the size of the global economy would result in increased hardship for billions.	在这几点里，减少世界人口不太可能，而故意削减世界经济规模意味着数十亿人将陷入困境。


“The Hartwell Paper,” then, sets out to develop a strategy that identifies a number of ways of pulling the levers of energy efficiency and carbon intensity.	因此《哈特维尔报告》则着手在能源使用效率和碳集中度方面发展寻找一系列可以推动相关政策杠杆的方式。


The Hartwell group proposes that we adopt three basic climate-related goals: ensuring secure, affordable energy supplies for everyone (which means developing alternatives to fossil fuels); ensuring that economic development doesn’t wreak environmental havoc (which means not just reducing CO2 emissions, but also cutting indoor pollution from burning biomass, reducing ozone, and protecting tropical forests); and making sure that we are prepared to cope with whatever climate changes may occur, man-made or natural (which means recognizing, at last, the importance of adapting to climate change).	研究小组建议我们设立三项和气候有关的基本目标：首先，确保每个人都能得到安全而且负担得起的能源供应（这意味着发展化石燃料的替代品）； 其次，确保经济发展不会引发环境灾难（就是不但要实现二氧化碳减排，还要降低燃烧生物燃料所造成的室内污染，减低臭氧排放，保护热带雨林）；


Achieving these goals will obviously require heavy lifting.	很显然，实现这些目标需要面对巨大的阻力。


The Hartwell group correctly notes that in order to be successful, our approach to climate policy should offer obvious advantages (“rapid and demonstrable pay-back”), appeal to a wide variety of people, and produce measurable results.	对此哈特维尔研究小组明智地指出，为了实现目标，我们使用的气候政策必须可以带来明显的好处（“迅速而且可见的回报”），对各阶层的人们都具有吸引力，而且产生具体可测的结果。


The Kyoto approach, of course, does none of these things.	而当然，用“京都模式”是做不到这几点的。


Instead of single-mindedly trying to force people to do without carbon-emitting fuels, the Hartwell group suggests that we pursue a number of other worthy goals – for example, adaptation, reforestation, encouraging biodiversity, and improving air quality – each of which is important, and all of which may also reduce carbon emissions.	除了一心强迫人们放弃碳燃料的做法之外，研究小组建议我们应该追求其他一些更有价值的目标——比如尝试适应变化，重新造林，增加生物多样性，改善空气质量——每一点都很重要，而且每一点都能减少碳排放。


As the report notes, “the all-inclusive ‘Kyoto’ type of climate policy…needs to be broken up into separate issues again, each addressed on its merits and each in its own ways.”	正如报告所指出的那样：“那种一锅端的‘京都’式气候政策……必须被分割拆散成几个单独的事务，并遵照每一项事务的特点来制定相应的方案。 ”


At the same time, the group adds, we must recognize that we won’t make any real progress in cutting CO2 emissions until we can provide developing economies with affordable alternatives to the fossil fuels on which they currently depend.	与此同时，报告也补充说，我们必须意识到除非能给发展中国家提供负担得起的替代方案，从而解除他们当前对化石燃料的依赖，否则就不可能在削减二氧化碳排放方面取得任何实质性进展。


“In short,” the report notes, “we need to ignite…an energy technology revolution.”	“简而言之，我们必须实现一场能源科技的革命。 ”


The Hartwell group argues that mass improvements are needed across many technologies, requiring the determined participation of governments.	哈特维尔研究小组认为在许多技术领域都需要大规模的革新，也需要政府全心全意的参与。


They suggest partially funding the required research and development with a “slowly rising but initially low carbon tax” that would avoid undermining economic growth.	他们建议对所需的研究进行专门资助，并征收“缓慢上升但起始费率较为低廉的碳排放税”以免阻碍经济增长。


If any – or all – of this sounds familiar, it may be because I have been arguing much the same points for some time.	如果你觉得上述任何——甚至全部——建议都有点耳熟的话，那是因为我已经把类似的观点呼吁了很久了。


If my experience is any guide, the members of the Hartwell group should expect to be attacked as heretics for questioning the Kyoto orthodoxy.	照以往的经验，整个小组的成员都会被当成“京都宗教”的异教徒而遭到围攻，但这个代价是微不足道的。


But that is a small price to pay. As the saying goes, “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”	正如一句谚语所言：“所谓疯子，就是那些不断重复干同一件事，却期望有不同结果的人”。


With respect to global warming, it’s time we came to our senses.	在全球变暖这方面，也该是咱们恢复理智的时候了。


Talking to the Taliban	对话塔利班


WASHINGTON, DC – The Obama administration has affirmed that, while it will not participate directly, it supports the idea of peace negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government.	发自华盛顿——奥巴马政府已经公开宣布不会直接插手阿富汗内政，但支持该国境内的塔利班与政府展开和谈。


This nod from the White House followed the publication of reports that representatives of Afghan President Hamid Karzai had begun preliminary high-level talks regarding a possible coalition government and an agreed timetable for a NATO military withdrawal from Afghanistan.	根据不久前发布的一份报告显示，阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊的高级代表已经与塔利班高层进行了初步接触，会谈内容涉及如何组建一个可能的联合政府以及北约撤军的协议时间表等问题，而白宫也正是在报告发布后才表达了上述意图的。


The issue of negotiating a rapprochement between Afghanistan’s government and the Taliban is undoubtedly controversial.	推动阿富汗政府与塔利班展开和谈的举措无疑会引发诸多争论。


The hope is that the Taliban leadership is not cohesive – that, whereas some of its members are probably committed to al-Qaeda’s absolutist ideology, others might accept a compromise settlement.	希望在于塔利班的领导集团或许并不是铁板一块——即便有部分成员倾向于死守基地组织的宗教专制意识形态，但其他成员或许会接受一个妥协方案。


Karzai and Western leaders have repeatedly insisted that their reconciliation offer does not extend to al-Qaeda members, who are seen as alien foreign elements whose extremist convictions and past terrorist activities make them unacceptable negotiating partners.	卡尔扎伊和西方各国领导人们已经反复强调，他们的和谈对象并不包括基地组织。 作为一种来自境外的外部势力，该组织的极端信仰以及恐怖行径都使他们被排除在和谈名单之外。


Although al-Qaeda and the Taliban are united in their desire to expel Western troops from Afghanistan and reestablish a strict Islamic government in which they enjoy a monopoly of political and religious power, some Taliban leaders might accept more moderate goals.	尽管基地组织和塔利班都渴望将西方军队逐出阿富汗，并最终建立一个由他们独掌政治和宗教大权，严格执行伊斯兰教法的政府，但不排除有部分塔利班领导人可能会采纳某种较为折衷的政治目标。


More importantly, the Taliban in government would not necessarily support Islamic insurgencies in other countries or engage in distant terrorist attacks in Western countries, whereas al-Qaeda almost certainly would.	更为重要的是，当权后的塔利班不一定会支持在其他国家发动宗教革命，或是对西方国家进行远距离恐怖袭击，而基地组织则可能依然故我。


In recent years, Taliban representatives, aware of widespread eagerness to end the country’s decades of fighting, have insisted that their political ambitions are confined to Afghanistan.	近些年来，塔利班代表已经意识到了国人对结束数十年内战的渴望，故一直坚称他们的政治野心仅限于阿富汗境内。


Al-Qaeda leaders, by contrast, remain wedded to the goal of establishing radical Islamist regimes throughout the Muslim world and waging war against a long list of governments that they see as hostile to this objective.	相反，基地组织的领导人仍固执地要在整个穆斯林世界建立极端伊斯兰统治，并不惜向一大批被认为是阻碍这一目标的国家宣战。


The key uncertainty is whether an Afghan government that includes the Taliban would and could prevent al-Qaeda from reestablishing bases in regions under Taliban control.	而现在面对的最大不确定性因素，则是加入联合政府的塔利班是否愿意（并有能力）阻止基地组织在其控制区内重建军事基地？


Some argue that the Taliban, eager to return to power, would want to reconcile with the international community or at least prevent further Western military strikes.	有些人认为塔利班急于重新掌权，故乐意与国际社会妥协，至少希望能让西方军队停止进一步攻势。


But it is hard to imagine the Taliban using force to prevent their al-Qaeda allies from reestablishing a military presence in Afghanistan and exploiting that presence to organize additional terrorist attacks in other countries.	但这也无法确保塔利班会动用武力阻止他们的基地组织盟友在阿富汗境内重组武装力量，并利用这些力量对其他国家发动新一轮恐怖袭击。


The Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan are closely integrated at the operational level, with al-Qaeda members embedded in most important Taliban field operations.	毕竟在阿富汗境内，塔利班和基地组织战士是高度融合的，塔利班的几次重大地面攻势中都活跃着基地组织成员的身影。


Thus far, the Taliban leadership has publicly rejected Karzai’s reconciliation overtures.	正因如此，塔利班的领导人一直都对卡尔扎伊递来的和谈橄榄枝不屑一顾。


For example, they greeted the inauguration of the June 2010 Peace Jirga with rocket attacks and suicide bombers.	其中一个例子就是他们用火箭炮和自杀式炸弹来“欢迎”2010年6月召开的阿富汗各部族族长和平会议。


Until now, Taliban representatives have demanded that all Western troops leave Afghanistan before they even consider engaging in direct talks with the Afghan government.	直到现在，塔利班代表一直坚持在西方国家军队完全撤离阿富汗之前，他们不会与阿富汗政府开展直接对话。


Karzai has sought to finesse the issue by arguing that a peace agreement that ended the insurgency would bring about the withdrawal of all foreign military forces.	卡尔扎伊对此的回应则是只有达成了停火协议，才能促使外国军事力量完全撤离。


Another obstacle is many Taliban leaders’ opposition to Afghanistan’s current constitution, which was adopted after the Taliban lost power.	另一个主要的障碍是许多塔利班领导人都反对当前的宪法——这部宪法是在他们下台之后颁布的。


It includes a number of liberal-democratic principles that many Taliban consider objectionable, if not blasphemous.	在这些人眼中，宪法中包含的大量自由民主原则即便不是亵渎神明，也至少是令人厌恶的。


For example, the constitutional provision guaranteeing women equal rights is a major source of dispute.	比如说，宪法规定妇女拥有与男性平等的权利，而这一条就是引发争端的一条主要导火索。


Fearing the loss of guaranteed schooling for girls and other rights, many women’s rights groups, in Afghanistan and elsewhere, oppose negotiating with the Taliban.	出于对女孩失去教育等权利的担忧，阿富汗境内和其他地区的女权组织都拒绝与塔利班进行对话。


The 2001 Bonn Agreement, the 2006 London Compact, and NATO’s April 2008 Bucharest Declaration also list a range of political, economic, and social objectives for Afghanistan that in many cases conflict with Taliban values.	而2001年的波恩协定，2006年的伦敦协定以及2008年4月的北约布加勒斯特宣言都在政治，经济和社会方面为阿富汗设定了诸多目标——而这些目标往往都与塔利班的价值观大相径庭。


Human rights groups suspect that even if the Afghan government and Taliban representatives profess to respect the constitution in any future peace agreement, they will not enforce some of its provisions in practice.	人权组织甚至怀疑，即便阿富汗政府当局与塔利班代表都承诺会在未来任何和平协议中尊照当前宪法，但在实际运作中他们根本不会落实这些条文。


Even if Taliban leaders affirmed their willingness to talk, it would be hard to trust their intentions.	即使塔利班领导人愿意展开和谈，我们也难以揣摸他们的真正居心。


They could easily imitate the North Vietnamese strategy of professing to accept a compromise peace settlement in order to secure a foreign military withdrawal.	为了促使外国军事力量撤离，他们很可能会模仿越南内战中北越的战略，声称会接受协商和平解决方案。


They then could resume offensive operations against the still weak Afghan Security Forces, which have yet to demonstrate much military effectiveness.	而一旦外国部队撤离，他们就可能重新开始攻击实力薄弱的阿富汗安全部队——这支部队目前还未能展现出多少作战能力。


The Pakistani Taliban has employed a variant of this strategy in the past, ostentatiously negotiating truces with the military in order to allow their forces to rest and regroup before resuming their attacks shortly thereafter.	巴基斯坦境内的塔利班就曾使用过类似的战略，他们高调地与政府军方进行停战和谈，目的只是为了在随后的反攻前为己方部队争取喘息和重新集结的时间。


Unlike in Pakistan, moreover, the Afghan insurgents could resume fighting with the expectation that their main adversary, the international forces, would be considerably hobbled in their response, because Western publics would prevent their governments from sending their troops back to battle.	而与巴基斯坦不同的是，阿富汗武装分子会有另一种想法，认为一旦战火重燃，他们的主要对手多国部队将举步维艰，因为西方国家的民众会阻止政府将本国军队重新投入战场。


One reason why progress in the reconciliation processes has been slower than anticipated is that Western governments have not pressed Karzai to engage in genuine peace negotiations with Taliban leaders until coalition forces have had the opportunity to reverse the deteriorating situation on the battlefield.	而和谈进程比预想中缓慢的一个原因，则是在联军终于有机会将战局扭转之前，西方国家一直没有迫使卡尔扎伊认真地与塔利班领导人展开和谈。


US policymakers in particular wanted to take advantage of the ongoing surge in NATO combat forces in Afghanistan – which reached 150,000 in August, of which some two-thirds were American – to shake Taliban commanders’ conviction that they were winning the war.	尤其是美国的政策制定者还想利用北约当前的军事行动（今年8月增兵到15万人，其中约2/3是美军）来动摇塔利班领导人，打消他们自认为赢得了战争的信念。


It would be a mistake to disconnect the situation on the battlefield from the reconciliation process.	但这种把战场形势与和谈进程分开对待的理念是错误的。


If NATO’s forces work sufficiently well, they might weaken the insurgency enough that the Afghan military could prove adequate to overcoming the remaining hard-liners, even after foreign troops reverse their current surge and scale down their presence during the next few years.	事实上，假如北约部队的表现足够好的话，他们就能把反动武装力量削弱到一定程度，那么就算未来几年联军收缩军事行动并减少驻阿部队的数量，也足以创造一个大好局面，好让阿富汗军队去收拾残余的强硬分子，证明自己维护国内局势的能力，为政府赢得更好的谈判筹码。


Taming Bigotry	驯服偏执


MELBOURNE –At a time when the horrific events in Norway remind us how much murderous bigotry there still is in the world, perhaps a story from the other side of it can restore a little optimism that some positive, historically significant, changes in attitude really are occurring.	发自墨尔本——当挪威惨案再次警醒我们这个世界上还存在着多少危及他人生命的偏执之时，或许在世界另一端发生的一个故事能带来些许乐观情绪，使人们意识到某些积极的，历史性的态度转变已经正在发生了。


Last month in Australia, a major-league football player was fined, suspended, and – as a result of intensive negative coverage in the press – experienced profound public humiliation. What was unusual about the case, and the scale of the response, was his offense.	就在上个月，一名澳大利亚橄榄球运动员被处以罚款，禁赛，同时在媒体的广泛负面报道下承受了巨大的公众压力。


It was not a thuggish tackle, abuse of the umpire, or match-fixing in collusion with gamblers.	而导致这起事件及其各方反响程度与众不同的地方则是他的罪名。


It was just a taunting remark heard only by his opponent. But his opponent was Nigerian-born, and the remark was a racist insult.	他没有在比赛中实施危险动作，也没有蔑视裁判或者涉及赌球，只是嘲讽了对方球员的一句，但他嘲讽的对象是位尼日利亚裔运动员，而且语言中涉及种族主义。


Just a few days earlier, in an incident that also drew significant media attention and condemnation, a spectator hurling racial abuse at a Sudanese-born player was escorted from the ground and banned from attending future matches unless he undertook racism-awareness education.	而就在几天之前，在一件同样引发媒体高度关注和谴责的事件中，一名观众对一位苏丹裔运动员发表了种族主义言论，结果当场被警卫带离比赛现场，而对他的判罚则是除非接受关于反种族主义意识的教育，否则终身禁止入场。


Not many years ago, in Australia – as in most of the rest of the world – these kinds of incidents would have passed utterly unremarked and without redress.	几年前，在澳大利亚——以及世界很多地方——这些事件可能会被可耻地忽略并缺乏任何矫正措施。


They were not serious – just part of the game, uttered in the heat of the gladiatorial contest on the field and the passionate partisan cheering in the stands.	人们认为这无伤大雅——那是比赛的一部份，不过是沙场上的角斗士或者对立党派成员发泄激情的一种方式而已。


A famous player of the 1990’s said at the time, “I’d make a racist comment every week if I thought it would help win the game.”	一名1990年代的著名运动员曾说：“如果能对赢得比赛有利的话，我每周都会发表种族主义言论。


And spectators were no different: “Of course, I sing out ‘black bastard,’ but I don’t mean it.	”观众的观感也差不多：“我当然会在看比赛时高呼‘死黑鬼’，但我不是故意的。


It’s just a way of letting out your feelings.”	只不过是一种表达感情的方式而已。


It seemed not to occur to anyone that the black players who were the subject of this abuse could possibly have rather different feelings about it.	”似乎所有人都认为作为这些言论承受者的黑人运动员也会抱着同样的态度。


And all of this was happening in a country that seemed, institutionally at least, to have put its racist past behind it.	而所有这些都发生在一个似乎（至少在制度上）抛弃了自身种族主义历史的国家。


The notorious “White Australia” immigration policy was abandoned in the late 1960’s, robust anti-discrimination legislation was enacted in the 1970’s, and innumerable efforts were made to remedy through land rights and social-justice programs the injustices experienced over many decades by indigenous Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.	著名的“白人澳大利亚”移民政策在1960年代被废除，健全的反歧视法案在1970年代得到通过，而大量的努力都被用于通过地权和社会公正项目等方式抚平澳大利亚土著居民和托雷斯海峡岛民数十年来所经历的不平等待遇。


Casual racism – disparaging remarks made about other ethnic and national groups around the workplace, or over the bar or the family dinner table (as I can well remember growing up in the 1950’s) – had become much less prevalent in Australian private life, and certainly wholly absent from public life, by the 1990’s.	非故意的种族主义——在工作场所，酒吧或者家庭餐桌上（正如我在1950年代的童年记忆）所发表的对其他种族或者国家团体的歧视性言论——在1990年代澳大利亚人的私人生活中已经越来越少，而且完全在公共生活中被消灭了。


But sport was somehow different.	但在体育场上却有所不同。


There, it was just letting off steam, no different from cheering or booing; or it was a “legitimate” tactic, no different from needling an opponent by challenging his manhood.	在那里，这些言论只是释放激情，跟欢呼与嘘声一样； 或者说这是一个“合法的”策略，就如同攻击对手技不如人一样。


That mood and behavior began to change with the action of a star Aboriginal Australian Rules footballer, Nicky Winmar, one of the very few then playing in the top professional league.	这种态度和行为在一位著名的，也是少数晋身顶级联赛的土著澳大利亚橄榄球运动员Nicky Winmar做出行动后发生了转变。


In 1993, he had had enough.	在1993年，他已经受够了。


After a man-of-the-match performance, throughout which he had been racially taunted, he turned to the opposing team’s cheer squad, raised his top with one hand and pointed dramatically to his chest with the other.	在一场由他主宰了的比赛中，他整场都遭受到种族主义攻击，赛后他走到对手的助威团面前，一手拉起球衣，一手指向自己裸露的胸膛。


The declaration was unequivocal: “I’m black, and I’m proud of it.”	此举的意思很明确：“我是黑皮肤，我对此感到自豪。


The demand for action generated by this incident, and by the highly publicized on-field abuse of another star Aboriginal player, Michael Long, two years later, led the Australian Football League to introduce in 1995 a “Racial and Religious Vilification” code of conduct.	”而这一事件以及两年后对另一位著名土著运动员Michael Long在球场上所遭到的种族主义攻击的广泛报道促使澳大利亚橄榄球联盟在1995年通过了一项“种族与宗教侵犯”行为准则。


The code combines a robust conciliation process with appropriate punitive measures and a strong educational program.	这一准则还与一项包括相关惩罚措施和深刻教育项目的全面调解程序相结合。


The code has been overwhelmingly successful in ridding Australian football of the on-field racism that made life miserable for most indigenous players, with the number of indigenous players at the elite level more than doubling over the last decade.	这项准则成功地使澳大利亚橄榄球界摆脱了那些令大多数土著运动员饱受困扰的球场种族主义攻击，也使过去十年间顶级联赛的土著运动员数量翻了一番有多。


It has since been embraced by every football competition in Australia, and has proved an influential model for other sports in Australia and worldwide.	准则随后推广到澳大利亚所有的橄榄球赛事，并成为一个影响了澳大利亚和世界其他运动项目的范例。


For example, Australia’s reforms are reflected in the anti-racism policies adopted in the last decade by the international football governing bodies, FIFA and UEFA (though in many cases the translation of policy into effective, enforceable action at the national level has left much to be desired).	比如澳大利亚的改革在过去十年间被国际足联和欧洲足联这样的国际足球管理机构所采用（虽然在许多国家将这些政策转化为有效且可实施的行动时还不能尽如人意。 ）


For a long time, however, there has been doubt in Australia about how much real across-the-board commitment there was to the underlying message that racial vilification anywhere, anytime, by anyone, in any context, is simply unacceptable.	但长时间以来，在澳大利亚都存在一种怀疑，质疑针对无论在任何地方，任何时间，任何人在任何情景下都无法容忍发表种族主义攻击行为的根本信息究竟有多少真正的全面承诺。


There was considerable sentimental attachment toward Aboriginal sportsmen and women, and indeed toward Australia’s indigenous people generally – apparent in the outpouring of emotion, remarked worldwide, that accompanied Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s moving “Apology to the Stolen Generation” in 2008.	事实上这一政策主要是与澳大利亚男女土著运动员，与所有澳大利亚土著居民有着相当大的情感联系——这在陆克文担任澳大利亚总理时感人的“向被盗的一代道歉”行动在全球引发的强烈情感反响中可见一斑。


But would this sentiment extend to those of African descent and to members of other ethnicities who were gradually becoming a more visible part of Australian life?	但这种感情是否能延伸到那些在澳大利亚越来越多的非洲裔以及其他民族的���员？


The evidence of the last few weeks is that history, at last, really has moved on.	过去几个星期所发生的事件证明历史至少还是在不断前进的。


The revelation of the abuse of players of Sudanese and Nigerian origin generated a surge of genuine, visible, and tangible public repugnance – a very real sense that the perpetrators had shamed not only themselves, but also their country.	针对尼日利亚和苏丹裔运动员种族主义攻击行为的披露引发了喷薄而出的真诚，可见和有形的公众厌恶情绪——确实说明了攻击者不但令自己蒙羞，还侮辱了自己的国家。


For an Australian of my generation, that is a very new, and hugely welcome, experience.	对于我这一代澳大利亚人来说，这是一个崭新且非常受欢迎的经历。


And there is every reason to hope, and believe, that our experience is gradually becoming universal.	我们有理由去希望和相信：这种经历将在全世界推广开来。


Taming “Speculative Capitalism”	驯服“投机资本主义”


Nicolas Sarkozy, the leading contender in the French presidential election, recently lashed out against what he called “speculative capitalism,” and says he wants to “moralize the financial zone” created by the euro.	法国总统竞选中的领先竞争者Nicolas Sarkozy最近猛烈抨击被他称作“投机资本主义”的现象，并说他想要将欧元所创造的金融区“道德化”。


What does Sarkozy mean by “speculative capitalism?”	他所讲的“投机资本主义”是什么含义？


Something immoral, apparently, but what?	它显然是不道德的，但究竟是什么呢？


The term has rarely been used before, and seems to be redundant.	这个词此前很少被用到，而且听起来有点累赘。


After all, capitalism is practically a synonym for speculation, isn’t it?	毕竟，资本主义几乎就是投机的同义词，不是吗？


Sarkozy is expressing a wave of sentiment that is neither unique to his party nor to France.	Sarkozy所表达的是一种不论对于他的政党还是法国来说都并非独特的思潮。


At stake with his comments are emerging ideas and attitudes that will inform the twenty-first century economy.	和他的评论一道处于危机之中的还有一些与21世纪的经济息息相关的新生理念和态度。


So we should think hard about what “speculative capitalism” means.	所以我们应该认真思考“投机资本主义”的含义。


Sarkozy has called free trade “a policy of naiveté,” and wants to take a number of steps that would stand in the way of economic globalization.	Sarkozy将自由贸易称为“天真的政策”，并想采取一系列阻碍经济全球化的举措。


Although he does want to make the French labor market less rigid, he would block foreign takeover bids of French companies and protect Airbus workers from possible job losses.	虽然他一心想要增加法国劳动力市场的灵活性，但同时又想阻止外国公司收购法国公司并保护空中客车公司的工人不被裁员。


Protecting France from speculative capitalism seems to mean interfering with free trade to protect local jobs.	保护法国不受投机资本主义危害似乎就意味着通过干预自由贸易来保护本地就业。


To be sure, Sarkozy is right to note the enormous risks that workers and their communities face in this rapidly globalizing world.	具体地说，Sarkozy正确地认识到工人和他们的社群在这个迅速全球化的社会中所面临的巨大风险。


But putting this problem center stage should not mean protecting existing jobs come what may.	但将这个问题中心化并不应该意味着不顾一切地保护现有的就业。


Capitalists put their money where they think it can get the highest return; that is what we call speculation.	资本家将金钱投入到他们认为能获得最高回报的地方； 这就是我们所谓的投机。


They buy companies, break them up, recombine them, fire some employees, and hire others.	他们收购、分拆、重组公司、解雇再雇佣员工。


To do this profitably, they cannot afford to let patriotism or sentiment interfere.	为了有利可图，他们不能受爱国主义或情绪的影响。


They do business in whatever country is most advantageous.	他们在最具优势的国家做生意。


Rewarding successful ventures is the basic idea of capitalism – a dynamic process that Joseph Schumpeter called “creative destruction.”	奖励成功的公司是资本主义的基本理念—一个被Joseph Schumpeter称作“创造性破坏”的动态过程。


Under capitalism, one is immoral if one reneges on a contract or breaks the law, but not if one speculates.	在资本主义制度下，不履行合同或违反法律的行为是不道德的，但投机却不是。