The 60% turnout in the January elections and the scenes of Iraqis risking their lives to vote has led to hopes that a political settlement in Iraq may be possible.	一月大选时60%的投票率和伊拉克人冒着生命危险投票的情景让人对伊拉克问题和平解决的可能充满希望。


The elections are but a first step; the insurgency continues; civil war remains possible.	然而，选举仅仅是第一步，叛乱仍在继续，内战仍可能发生。


Nonetheless, the elections may have softened some of the sense of illegitimacy that has clouded Bush’s Iraq policy.	可不论如何，选举可能已经软化了人们对布什伊拉克政策挥之不去的不信任感。


Similarly, with regard to the Middle East peace process, the replacement of Yasir Arafat by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian elections, and the meetings between Abbas and Ariel Sharon suggest progress.	同样，在中东和平进程方面，阿巴斯取代阿拉法特，巴勒斯坦大选和阿巴斯与沙���的会晤暗示着积极的进展。


On difficult nuclear issues, such as North Korea and Iran, Bush has pursued multilateral consultation and coordination with other powers.	在困难的诸如北朝鲜和伊朗的核问题上，布什也寻求了多边协商并与其他大国协调。


Of course, this still leaves unresolved other multilateral issues, like the International Criminal Court and global climate change.	当然，还有许多有待解决的多边问题，如国际刑事法院和全球气候变化。


There is little prospect that Bush will reverse his rejection of the Kyoto Treaty, but it will be interesting to see how far he accommodates Prime Minister Tony Blair’s efforts to make climate change a priority during Britain’s period as chair of the Group of Eight major economies.	布什改变其拒绝《京都议定书》立场的可能性微乎其微。 且看他将会在多大程度上配合布莱尔首相在英国担任8国集团的主席国期间将气候变化作为重中之重的努力，无疑是件有趣的事情。


It is much too early for a verdict on Bush’s second term policies.	现在就对布什第二任期的政策下定论还为时尚早。


As he looks ahead to the verdict of history, he seems to realize that hard power alone will not consolidate his reputation, but he remains hostage to incidents and accidents that could drive even his best-laid plans off course.	当他展望历史评判时，似乎意识到单凭硬权力还不足以强化自己的名誉，但却依然任由可能使他殚精竭虑的计划脱离轨道的事件和意外发生。


Nonetheless, the most striking thing at this point in Bush’s second term is his belated discovery of the importance of diplomacy and soft power.	不论如何，在布什第二任期的现阶段，最引人注目的一点就是他对外交和软权力的重要性迟来的发现。


Reforming or Deforming the Fed?	改革还是改变美联储？


BERKELEY – The silly season that is a presidential election campaign in the United States has taken a particularly absurd turn as the candidates offer their proposals for monetary-policy reform.	伯克利—无聊的美国总统选举季出现了特别滑稽的大转变，候选人纷纷抛出货币改革方案。


This is not the first time, of course, that presidential candidates have proposed changing how US monetary policy is conducted.	当然，这并非总统候选人提出要改动美国货币政策。


But the radical, sometimes harebrained, nature of the current crop of schemes is exceptional by historical standards.	但像目前那样的彻底变化——有考虑欠妥之嫌——在历史上都是不多见的。


Why such proposals appeal to the candidates and potential voters is no mystery.	为何候选人和潜在选民对这些方案如此上心不难理解。


Since the financial crisis, the US Federal Reserve has taken a series of unprecedented steps, cutting interest rates to zero, massively expanding its balance sheet, and bailing out troubled financial institutions.	自金融危机以来，美联储采取了 一系列前所未有的措施，将利率削减至零、大规模扩张其资产负债表，还救助了陷入困境的金融机构。


Those measures were intended to treat the economy’s ills, but their very association with those ills encourages the belief that they are somehow the underlying cause.	这些措施本意是解决经济顽疾，但它们与这些顽疾相辅相成，这让很多人认为它们才是根本性根源。


Likewise, the Fed’s participation in rescues of troubled financial institutions is criticized for favoring Wall Street over Main Street.	类似地，美联储参与救援受困金融机构也被抨击为将华尔街置于优于主街（Main Street）的地位。


And, separately, the Fed is slammed for creating inequality, first by keeping interest rates low, which hurts those on fixed incomes, and now by raising rates, which keeps a lid on wage growth.	此外，还有人批评美联储制造了不平等性，先是通过保持低利率从而伤害固定收益，现在则是通过提升利率伤害工资增长。


Clearly, the Fed just can’t win – and for reasons that have nothing to do with current monetary policy.	显然，美联储永远是输家——其原因与当前货币政策毫无关系。


Two of the most deep-seated features of American political culture – with roots extending back to the eighteenth century – are suspicion of powerful government and distrust of concentrated financial power.	美国政治文化的两大最深层次的特征——它们可以追溯到十八世纪——是怀疑强力政府和不信任集中金融力量。


The Fed is the single institution that best encapsulates those fears.	美联储便是汇集了这两大恐惧的金融机构。


Thus, we have proposals by Republican candidates Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Mike Huckabee to require the Fed to maintain a fixed dollar price of gold.	因此，我们看到了共和党候选人泰德·科鲁兹（Ted Cruz）、兰德·保罗（Rand Paul）和麦克·哈卡比（Mike Huckabee）要求美联储固定黄金美元价格的方案。


To call these actual proposals is a bit generous.	这些方案根本毫无实际性可言。


The proponents do not specify whether the Fed would be obliged to provide gold at this price to all comers, as before 1933, or only to foreign governments, as between 1945 and 1971.	建言者没有具体说明美联储必须以同一价格向所有人提供黄金（如1933年以前那样）还只是向外国政府提供黄金（像1945—1971年那样）。


Nor do they explain whether that obligation could be suspended in an emergency, as in those earlier eras.	他们也没有解释这一义务能否根据紧急情况中止（就像前几次那样）。


More fundamentally, they fail to explain what is special about gold aside from its talismanic quality.	更加基本的问题是，他们没有解释黄金除了“辟邪”功能之外还有什么特殊之处。


They do not clarify why the Fed should focus on stabilizing the price of this particular metal, rather than on the price of a representative basket of goods and services.	他们没有澄清美联储为何应该注重稳定这种金属的价格，而不是注重稳定一揽子代表性商品和服务的价格。


Indeed, if the critics focused on the latter, they could give their proposal a name.	事实上，如果批评者关注的是后者，那么他们的方案师出有名。


They could call it “inflation targeting.”	他们可以称之为“通胀目标”。


Proposals for a “Taylor rule” are more serious, if only because such a rule, first described by Stanford University economist John Taylor, links the policy interest rate to just such a representative basket of goods and services, namely the consumer price index, while adjusting for the rate of unemployment.	“泰勒规则”方案则更加高级一些，不过这只是因为这一最先由斯坦福大学经济学家约翰·泰勒（John Taylor）提出的规则将政策与这样一揽子代表性商品和服务——即消费物价指数挂钩，并根据失业率调整。


But the rule is merely a formula purporting to explain why the Fed set its policy interest rate as it did in the 1980s and early 1990s, the period Taylor considered in his original study.	但泰勒规则只是一个公式，其目的是为了解释美联储为何要在20世纪80年代和90年代初（泰勒最初的研究所考察的时期）制定这样的政策利率。


Indeed, a Taylor rule is a guide for desirable policy only if one thinks that the policies followed in that period were desirable, or, more to the point, that similar policies will be desirable in the future.	事实上，只有当你认为该时期政策是合理的，或者更切题一些，类似的政策在未来也是合理的，泰勒规则才是是合理政策指南。


It provides no direct way to address other concerns, such as financial stability, which most people will agree should, in light of recent events, figure more prominently in monetary-policy decisions.	泰勒规则并没有直接指明如何解决其他担忧，比如金融稳定性。 而在大部分人看来，最近一系列事件表明，金融稳定性应该在货币政策决定中作为更加重要的考虑因素。


Some of the reform proposals by Bernie Sanders, a contender for the Democratic nomination, also deserve to be taken seriously.	民主党候选人提名竞争者伯尔尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）所提出的一些改革方案也应该予以认真考察。


The fact that three of the nine directors of the Fed’s regional reserve banks are private bankers is an anachronism that creates the appearance, and potentially the reality, of a conflict of interest.	美联储地区储备银行的九位理事中有三人是私人银行家这一事实是一个时代错误，它造成了表面上——可能实际上也是如此——的利益冲突。


Sanders’ suggestion that the US president, rather than their own directors, nominate the regional reserve banks’ presidents is also worthy of consideration.	桑德斯提出的由美国总统，而不是美联储理事会本身，提名地区储备银行行长的建议也值得考虑。


It is important to recall that the peculiar arrangements prevailing today were designed to overcome the financial sector’s opposition to the establishment of a central bank when the Federal Reserve Act was passed in 1913.	必须牢记，今天所存在的怪异安排是为了克服金融业对成立中央银行的反对、通过1913年联邦储备法案而设计的。


This, clearly, is no longer the problem; on the contrary, the financial sector today is one of the Fed’s last staunch defenders.	如今，这显然已不再是问题； 相反，今天的金融业已经成为美联储最坚定的支持者。


Other proposals by Sanders are more dubious.	桑德斯的其他方案颇可商榷。


For example, to release full transcripts six months after Fed meetings would guarantee a scripted debate.	比如，美联储会议记录在保密六个月后即全文公布的方案必将引起争议。


Meaningful discussion would simply move to the anteroom.	有意义的讨论将会因此在闭门会议上做出。


The result, perversely, would be a decline in policy transparency.	其结果将适得其反，让政策透明度进一步下降。


Above all, Sanders’ recent statements betray a disturbing inclination to interfere in the conduct of monetary policy.	最重要的是，桑德斯最近的言论暴露出一个令人不安的倾向：干预货币政策制定。


The Fed, he argues, should not have raised interest rates in December in response to “phantom inflation.”	他指出，美联储不应该为了应对“幽灵通胀”而在12月提高利率。


He may be right.	他也许是对的。


But it is not the role of the US president to tell the Fed how to manage its policy rate.	但告诉美联储如何管理货币政策不是美国总统应该做的事。


The independence of the central bank is an essential cornerstone of effective monetary policy.	央行的独立性是有效货币政策的根本基石。


Even – or especially – an aspiring president should be sensitive to this fact.	即便（尤其）是极有抱负的总统，也（更）应该敏感于这一事实。


The Trumping of US Foreign Policy	美国外交政策的失败


DENVER – The United States’ presidential campaign, already long and tumultuous, will no doubt become even more so in the coming months, as the two parties’ nominees, now officially selected, face off ahead of November’s election.	丹佛——已经漫长动荡的美国总统竞选活动无疑将在未来几个月变得更加动荡，因为现在正式选定的两党候选人已经开始了11月的大选对抗。


But voters will have a clear choice before them, especially with regard to foreign policy.	但特别是在外交政策领域，选民将面临明确的选择。


The Democratic Party’s nominee, Hillary Clinton, promises continuity.	民主党提名人希拉里·克林顿承诺将继续现有外交政策。


A Clinton administration would remain a willing partner to America’s friends and allies, and it would make clear to America’s adversaries that the broad tenets of US foreign policy will not change.	克林顿内阁将仍然是美国朋友和盟国热情的合作伙伴，希拉里内阁将明确告诉美国的对手美国外交政策的大致宗旨不会改变。


Current US policy, rooted in strength and guided by pragmatism, has been generally successful in ensuring peace and stability for decades.	实用主义指导下植根于实力的现行美国外交政策数十年来在确保和平和稳定方面总体来看是成功的。


Quite a different vision has emerged on the Republican side, with the nomination of Donald Trump.	随着唐纳德·特朗普的提名，共和党方面的情况已经发生了很大变化。


And yet the candidate is a secondary issue – a symptom of the rapid transformation of the Grand Old Party itself, which has been a bewildering spectacle for American and foreign audiences alike.	但候选人仅仅是次要问题——即老大党本身迅速转型的表象，共和党的转型对国内和国外受众都是一种令人困惑的现象。


The GOP establishment spent the primary season wringing its hands, asking how something like the Trump candidacy could happen.	共和党机构整个初选阶段都在捶胸顿足，疑惑像特朗普成为候选人的情况是如何发生的。


For example, in March 2016, hundreds of Republican advisers, representing a broad spectrum of foreign-policy views, signed an open letter expressing their opposition to Trump.	比如，2016年3月，代表形形色色外交政策观点的数百名共和党顾问签署了一封公开信反对特朗普。


While some of these advisers may come to support him this fall, having been “reassured” of his commitment to their views, most will not.	虽然在得到特朗普支持他们观点的“保证”后，这些顾问中有些人可能会在今年秋天支持他，但绝大多数仍然会反对特朗普。


The GOP has produced a presidential candidate with such a dim view of America’s prospects that he thinks the country has entered an abyss from which it may never emerge.	共和党产生的总统候选人极端看淡美国前景，以至于认为美国已经陷入深渊而且可能永远无法自拔。


While much of the world still looks to the US for wise international leadership, the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, where Trump was formally nominated, projected nothing but fear and loathing.	虽然全世界仍然期待美国英明的国际领导，但正式确认特朗普提名的克里夫兰共和党全国代表大会所展现的却仅仅是恐惧和厌恶。


One of the more striking elements of Trump’s speech at the convention was his attack on the last Republican administration.	共和党大会上特郎普讲话最引人注目的内容是攻击上一届共和党政府。


He characterized George W. Bush as a co-conspirator with Hillary Clinton in various foreign entanglements, such as wars and, worse, trade deals.	他形容乔治·W·布什是希拉里·克林顿在各类国外纠葛中的同谋，包括战争和比战争更糟的贸易协议的签署。


Throughout his entire address, however, Trump made no reference to the rest of the GOP’s 162-year legacy.	但在整个讲话过程中，特朗普却从未提到余下的共和党162年历史。


Abraham Lincoln?	亚伯拉罕·林肯？


Forget him.	他算什么。


General Dwight D. Eisenhower, a war hero and president who built the interstate highway system that Trump tells us is dangerously dilapidated?	修建特朗普口中破败不堪的州际公路体系的战斗英雄兼总统艾森豪威尔将军？


Never heard of him.	从来没听说过。


And the delegates seemed to have no problem with these omissions, roaring in approval at every aggressive jab and apocalyptic warning.	共和党代表似乎对这样的遗漏毫不在意，反而在特朗普每次发出咄咄逼人的攻击和世界末日的警告时兴奋地咆哮。


Few took Trump, a reality-television star who has never held public office, seriously until he started winning primaries.	在赢得初选之前很少有人重视从未担任过公职的电视真人秀明星特朗普。


Now he is the Republican Party’s nominal head and presidential standard-bearer.	现在他却已经成为共和党的名义党魁和总统竞选的旗手。


How did this happen?	究竟是怎样走到现在这一步？


Ronald Reagan, the modern-day GOP’s patron saint, once said that government is the problem, not the solution, a dictum that embodied the anti-government animus that has defined the party ever since.	现代共和党守护神罗纳德·里根曾说与其说政府解决问题，还不如说是它问题的制造者，这样的宣言体现了从那以后成为共和党烙印的基本的反政府态度。


It is now a baked-in irony that any Republican running for office would just as soon do away with the government than actually serve in it.	现在无法摆脱的讽刺是任何竞选公职的共和党人只想尽快废除政府，而不是实际为政府服务。


Small wonder, then, that Republican voters would nominate someone who had never served in government.	因此，难怪共和党选民提名的候选人从未在政府担任过任何职务。


National defense has always been the sole exception to this anti-government view.	上述反政府观点的唯一例外一直是国防。


But even on that issue, the GOP has changed.	但即使在这个问题上，共和党也已经改变了态度。


Trump has indicated that he would flout America’s NATO obligations, disregard institutions of global governance, and treat negotiations with other countries as ceremonies of surrender to US positions, rather than two-way deliberations.	特朗普已经表示他将无视美国的北约义务、抛弃全球治理机构并将与他国谈判视为背叛美国立场，而不是双向磋商。


And yet, if the GOP foreign-policy establishment wants to understand where a candidate like Trump came from, its members would do well to look at the behavior of some within their own ranks.	但如果共和党外交机构真想了解像特朗普这样的候选人来源于何处，那么老大党的党员应当好好审视一下队伍中某些人的言行。


Those, like Max Boot, who have often called for the unilateral use of force in global trouble spots, paved the way for him, even if they do not today support him.	即使今天没有给予特朗普实际支持，但经常呼吁在全球动荡地区单方面使用武力的马克斯·布特等人为特朗普铺平了道路。


And others have helped him during his barroom-brawl campaign, as he turns civil policy disagreements into ad hominem attacks.	还有些人在他将民事政策分歧演变为个人偏见攻击的下流选战中为他提供了帮助。


According to pollsters and pundits, Trump will most likely lose in November.	据民意调查机构和专家预测，特朗普很有可能11月选举中告负。


If the last eight years wasn’t enough for Republicans to fix their party, perhaps another four or eight will suffice.	如果过去8年共和党未能进行调整，也许再过四年或八年能够完成这项任务。


One hopes they succeed.	希望他们能取得成功。


American democracy – and US foreign policy – needs at least two major parties, not one in the mainstream and the other on the extreme fringe.	美国民主——以及美国外交政策——至少需要两大政党，不能只有一个主流政党而另一个极端边缘化。


A Presidential Truthfulness Oath	总统竞选的诚实性宣誓


CAMBRIDGE – On January 20, 2017, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States.	坎布里奇—2017年1月20日，唐纳德·特朗普将宣誓就任美国第45任总统。


I say “sworn in,” rather than “assume the presidency,” because, under Section I of Article II of the US Constitution, Trump cannot actually become president unless he takes an oath of office, publicly committing himself to uphold the Constitution and perform to the best of his ability while in office.	我说“宣誓就任”，而不是“就任总统”，是因为根据美国宪法第二条第一款，除非特朗普宣读就职誓词，公开承诺他本人将谨守宪法、鞠躬尽瘁，否则他不能真正成为总统。


That is, of course, the case for all presidents.	当然，这对所有总统都一视同仁。


But, given how Trump comported himself during the campaign, it is particularly meaningful in his case.	但是，从特朗普在竞选过程中的表现看，这一要求对他有特别的意义。


Until now, Trump has made no effort to behave in an honest or reliable way.	到目前为止，特朗普的行为既不诚实，也不可靠。


Technically, he didn’t have to.	从技术上讲，他不必诚实和可靠。


The US does not require any sworn statements from the men and women who run for president, nor does it have any enforceable code of behavior or constraints on the kind of rhetoric that can be used.	美国对于没有规定需要宣誓后才能竞选总统，也没有具有强制性的行为规范或针对竞选纲领的规定。


Candidates may conduct themselves however they see fit.	候选人尽可以按照自己认为合适的方式进行。


This approach is based on the assumption that we can trust the candidates’ judgment.	这一方针的基础是假定我们能够信任候选人的判断。


People seeking the country’s highest office should know how to balance the political imperative of winning votes with a sense of responsibility for the feasibility of – and reasoning behind – their policy promises.	寻求问鼎美国至高无上地位的人应该知道如何平衡赢得选举这一政治目标和他们的政策承诺的可行性——以及背后的逻辑——的责任感。


By and large, experience has vindicated this view.	大体而言，经验证实了这一观点。


The US has had the good fortune of choosing largely from among presidential aspirants who adhere to generally accepted norms.	美国很幸运，基本上都是从谨守被一般接受的规范的有志于总统者中间做出选择。


With Trump, it seems that fortune has turned into bankruptcy.	但在特朗普身上，这种幸运似乎已经破产。


During his primary and general election campaigns, Trump lied incessantly about himself, his businesses, his opponents, other countries’ behavior and motivations, America’s electoral system, the size of trade deficits, the actions of the Federal Reserve, and data on everything from labor to crime (to name a few examples).	在初选和大选期间，特朗普不断地撒谎，撒谎对象包括他自己、他的对手、其他国家的行为和动机、美国选举制度、贸易赤字规模、美联储的行动、从劳动力到犯罪的各种数据，等等（以上只是小部分例子）。


Moreover, many of Trump’s campaign promises – building a Mexico-funded wall on America’s southern border, bringing back lost manufacturing jobs, deporting millions of illegal immigrants – are patently impossible to implement.	此外，许多特朗普的竞选承诺——由墨西哥出钱在美国南部边境修筑一道墙、让失去的制造业岗位回到美国、驱逐数百万非法移民——显然不具有实施可能性。


Mitt Romney, the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in 2012, was right when he called Trump “a phony, a fraud,” a candidate whose promises are “worthless.”	2012年共和党总统提名人米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）正确地将特朗普称为“大话精、骗子”，承诺“毫无价值”的候选人。


But while these traits are clearly problematic, they obviously have not hurt Trump’s political career.	但是，尽管这些特征显然很有问题，但它们也显然并未伤及特朗普的政治生涯。


Trump convinced a sizable portion of the electorate to ignore – if not condone – his flagrant policy reversals and lack of knowledge.	特朗普成功说服相当大比例的选民忽视甚至纵容他耸人听闻的政策转向和知识匮乏。


Even Romney himself bowed to Trump in the end, meeting with the president-elect a couple of weeks after the election, reportedly in search of a cabinet position.	甚至罗姆尼本人到最后也向特朗普低了头，在选举后几周与这位当选总统进行了会晤，据说是为了谋求一个内阁职位。


This has to be one of the most sobering lessons from this past year: outrageous lies and hollow promises can win even the most consequential elections.	过去的一年最令人警醒的教训之一是：赤裸裸的谎言和空洞的承诺甚至能够赢得意义最为重大的选举。


And adhering to basic norms of decency – facts can be massaged, but not manufactured, and promises must be plausible, if vague – can lose them.	而坚守基本正派规范——可以传播事实，但不能捏造事实； 以及承诺必须可靠，即使它含糊不清——可能输掉这样的选举。


Trump’s opponent in the campaign, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, learned that the hard way.	特朗普的竞选对手、前国务卿希拉里·克林顿可谓教训惨痛。


During the campaign, Clinton often quoted First Lady Michelle Obama: “When they go low,” she would declare, “we go high.”	选战期间，克林顿常常援引第一夫人米歇尔·奥巴马的话：“身段放得越低，”她说，“形象变得越高。


But when your opponent goes as low as Trump, “going high” is like choosing, in a classic prisoner’s dilemma, to remain loyal to your partner in crime, who, sitting in the next room, is cutting a deal to testify against you.	”但当你的对手向特朗普一样下流时，“高大形象”就好像是在经典囚徒困境中选择忠于隔壁房间的你的犯罪同伙，而他已经同意当污点证人。


When you “go high” in such circumstances, you get what game theorists call a “sucker’s payoff.”	当你在这样的环境中“形象高大”时，你就会获得博弈论中的“傻子获得的报酬”。


Candidates should never be put in such a position.	候选人决不能被置于如此境地。


Instead, we must make sure that all candidates adhere to a basic code of conduct.	相反，我们必须确保所有候选人都遵守基本游戏规则。


One simple way to do that would be to demand that all presidential candidates, beginning in 2020, take an oath to be truthful, responsible, and transparent in their campaign rhetoric and conduct.	一个简单的方法是从2020年开始要求所有总统候选人的宣誓是诚实、负责的人，并且贯彻到他们的竞选纲领和行为中。


In American society and political culture, the oath has a rare status.	在美国社会和政治文化中，誓词拥有罕见的地位。


Testifying in a court of law or before a committee of the US Congress, witnesses “solemnly swear to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.”	在法庭上或在国会某某委员会面前作证时，证人要“庄严宣誓说出并只说出事实及事实的全部。


Doctors take the “Hippocratic Oath,” pledging first to do no harm.	”医生要宣读“希波克拉底誓言”，承诺首先不作恶。


Students at many universities swear to uphold an honor code.	许多大学的学生要宣誓谨守荣誉法则。


And Trump will not be alone in taking his oath next month: at around the same time, new members of the US Congress and Trump’s cabinet will make a similar pledge.	特朗普不是下个月唯一一个要宣誓的人：几乎同时，美国国会新成员和特朗普内阁也将进行类似的宣誓。


Given this reverence for oaths, it is reasonable to assume that taking a truthfulness oath before initiating a campaign for public office would have some impact on candidates’ approach.	考虑到对誓词的尊崇，一个合理的假设是在参与公职竞选活动前进行诚实性宣誓将对候选人的方针造成一定影响。


There is nothing partisan about this proposal; many Republicans were victims of Trump’s unbridled campaign style before Clinton was in his crosshairs.	这一方案没有任何党派性； 在克林顿成为特朗普对手之前，许多共和党都是特朗普“奔放”竞选风格的受害者。


The public and the media could use the oath as a tool for assessing – and holding accountable – would-be leaders.	公众和媒体可以将誓词作为评估——以及问责——潜在领导人的工具。


And candidates would stand to gain a competitive advantage against opponents who refuse to take the oath.	如果对手拒绝宣誓，那么候选人就能赢得竞争优势。


Implementation would not be difficult.	实施也不困难。


While the presidential oath is required by the US Constitution, a candidates’ oath wouldn’t have to be.	尽管总统宣誓是美国宪法所要求的程序，但候选人并非如此。


Political and market pressure would be enough, if print, television, and social media simply refused to carry campaign advertisements from candidates who refused to take the oath.	如果纸媒、电视和社交媒体断然拒绝传播拒绝宣誓的候选人的竞选广告，政治和市场压力就足以令候选人就范。


The political advantage should not go to the most mendacious candidate.	不能让最喜欢撒谎的候选人赢政治优势。


For the sake of democracy, we must take action to solidify basic norms of decency and transparency in vital election campaigns.	为了民主的命运，我们必须采取行动在至关重要的选举过程中巩固正派和透明的基本规范。


We can start with the modest step of demanding a truthfulness oath from all future presidential candidates.	我们可以从一小步开始：要求未来总统候选人一概必须做出真实性宣誓。


Taking Monetary Policy to the People	把货币政策带给人民


LONDON – The United Kingdom was late to adopt central-bank independence, because then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher firmly opposed allowing unelected bankers to control interest rates.	伦敦—英国很晚才接受央行独立性，因为时任首相撒切尔夫人坚决反对让非选举产生的银行家控制利率。


She famously asserted that she would never hand that control away, and the Bank of England was not set free until 1997, when Tony Blair’s first Labour government was elected.	她有一句名言，她绝不会拱手让出控制权，而英格兰银行直到1997年布莱尔的第一届工党政府当选后才获得自由。


The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, as the BoE is known, was 303 years old before she was allowed to make her own decisions – and her own mistakes.	“针线街的老妇人”——英格兰银行的绰号——度过了303岁生日之后才被允许做出自己的决定——以及自己的错误。


While both the US Federal Reserve and the German Bundesbank had long been independent, most other European countries followed suit only in the run-up to establishing a monetary union.	美联储和德国联邦银行早已独立，但大部分其他欧洲国家直到货币联盟建立前夕才纷纷效仿。


For its part, the Bank of France had, since Napoleon, been left “in the hands of the government, but not too obviously so.”	在这一点上，法兰西银行从拿破仑时代开始就“掌握在政府手中，但不太明显”。


For the last 20 years, central-bank independence has marked a kind of “end of history” for monetary policy, after many other regimes were tried and failed.	在过去20年中，央行独立性标志着某种货币政策的“历史的终结”，而在此前，许多机制都被尝试并失败了。


In the years before the 2008 global financial crisis, independent central banks were seen as successful in controlling inflation; and countries with sizable fiscal deficits were especially enthusiastic about central-bank independence because they benefited from lower long-term interest rates.	2008年全球金融危机前的几年里，独立央行被视为成功地控制了通胀； 财政赤字较大的国家尤其热衷于央行独立性，因为可以从较低的长期利率中获益。


Central banks that also regulate the banking industry were asked tough questions about their insouciance in the face of rapid credit expansion, but they were widely praised for their prompt and decisive response when trouble hit.	面临信用极速扩张的局面，同时肩负着监管银行业责任的央行因为漫不经心而被严厉诘问，但当麻烦发生时，它们有因为迅速果断的反应而饱受赞美。


But the period of monetary-policy consensus may be coming to an end.	但货币政策的共识期也许即将结束。


In the United States, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has challenged Fed governors’ independence, and made it clear that he would quickly replace the Fed’s leadership were he elected.	在美国，共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普c质疑美联储理事的独立性，并明确表示如果当选将马上更换美联储领导层。


In Europe, the European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing policies have been widely criticized, and ECB President Mario Draghi recently had to defend his approach before a highly critical German Parliament.	在欧洲，欧洲央行的量化宽松政策受到广泛批评，行长德拉吉最近不得不在持高度批评态度的德国议会面前为自己的方针辩护。


British politicians have also begun to protest, even though criticizing the BoE was long considered tantamount to blaspheming in church.	英国政客也开始反对，尽管长期以来批评英格兰银行被视同在教堂渎神。


British Prime Minister Theresa May, in a recent speech before the Conservative Party Conference, noted that “monetary policy has had some bad side effects.	英国首相梅在最近的保守党大会讲话中指出，“货币政策有一些坏的副作用。


People with assets have got richer.	拥有资产的人更加富有了。


People without them have suffered … a change has got to come.	没有资产的人遭了秧……必须要做出改变。


And we are going to deliver it.”	而我们就是来实现这一改变的。 ”


William Hague, an influential former Conservative leader, was even more blunt when he recently issued a not-so-veiled threat: if central banks do not “change course soon, they will find their independence increasingly under attack.”	颇有影响力的前保守党领袖威廉·黑格（William Hague）更加直截了当，最近他提出了赤裸裸的威胁：如果央行不“马上改变行为，其独立性将受到越来越多的冲击。


In that case, he added, “the era of their much-vaunted independence will come, possibly quite dramatically, to its end.”	”在这样的情况下，他又说，“它们大肆吹嘘的独立时代将结束，过程可能非常快。 ”


While May has denied any split between her government and BoE Governor Mark Carney, it is clear that monetary policy has become a subject of political debate for the first time in 20 years.	梅断然否认其政府与英格兰银行行长卡尼之间有任何分歧，但显然，20年来���一次，货币政策成为政治争论的主题。


In response to these heretical outbursts, Carney has sounded emollient and understanding; and Draghi has laudably engaged with his critics’ arguments.	为了应对这些异端思想的爆发，卡尼显得很平静和理解； 而德拉吉与批评者的舌战也值得赞美。


But German Bundesbank Executive Board member Andreas Dombret tried a different tack.	但德国联邦银行理事会成员安德里斯·多姆布雷特（Andreas Dombret）尝试了不同的策略。


At a British Bankers Association Conference in London this month, he said: “It may be time for a gentle reminder that central-bank independence is not debatable,” Dombret suggested. “Politicians are well-advised to not exert influence in the wrong places.”	在本月的伦敦英国银行家协会会议上，他说：“也许是时候礼貌地提醒了：央行独立性是不容争辩的，”多姆布雷特表示，“政客不在错误的地方施加影响力是明智的。


One can see Dombret’s point.	不难看出多姆布雷特的话中要害。


Careless talk about monetary policy can unsettle markets, and politicians need to be careful what they wish for.	不审慎地评论货币政策可能会令市场不安，而政客更要对所欲之物慎之又慎。


But they are unlikely to agree that central-bank independence is “not debatable.”	但他们不可能同意央行独立性是“不容争辩的”。


They will likely ask for more humility from the technocrats, because what politicians give, they may take away.	他们可能会要求技术官僚更加低调，因为政客给什么，他们就能拿什么。


Just because they are debating the social implications of monetary policy does not necessarily mean that they are questioning the legitimacy of those who set the dials.	仅仅因为他们争论货币政策的社会影响并不一定意味着他们质疑决策者的合法性。


To be sure, this is delicate territory.	平心而论，这是一个微妙的局面。


There is a powerful argument to be made that central banks, insulated from short-term political pressures, have been careful stewards of price stability, and have served the global economy well.	一个强有力的观点是，摆脱了短期政治压力的央行一直是物价稳定的谨慎看护者，亦很好地服务了全球经济。


It is not obvious that returning to politically administered interest rates would have any benefits beyond the immediate term.	回归政治影响利率的局面是否真能带来即期以外的好处并不明显。


Still, we must accept that central banks’ large-scale quantitative easing takes them into uncharted territory, where the boundary between monetary and fiscal policy is blurred.	但是，我们必须承认，央行大规模量化宽松把它们带入了未知领域，货币和财政政策的界限越来越模糊了。


In the UK, for example, the Treasury decides on the level of economic intervention, while the BoE determines the timing and method of implementation.	比如，在英国，财政部决定了经济干预的水平，而英格兰银行决定实施的时机和方法。


So, the central bank’s independence is not absolute.	因此，央行的独立性不是绝对的。


Central bankers must demonstrate that they understand the political pressures and unusual circumstances that zero, or even negative, interest rates create.	央行行长必须证明，他们明白零甚至负利率所导致的政治压力和反常环境。


Savers are bitterly complaining that they are being penalized for their prudence; refusing to debate this and other implications of current monetary policies is not an acceptable response.	储蓄者痛苦地抱怨他们因为审慎而受到惩罚； 拒绝谈论这一点和当前货币政策的其他影响绝不是可以接受的应对方式。


Independence demands higher degrees of accountability and transparency, whereby policies are explained to the public.	独立性需要更高的问责度和透明度，从而向公众解释政策。


To its credit, the BoE has been showing the way forward with a series of open forums around the UK.	值得肯定的是，英格兰银行通过在英国的一系列公开论坛向人们展示了正确的前进道路。


Taking monetary policy to the people is time-consuming, but it is essential if the necessary political consensus to sustain independence is to be maintained.	把货币政策交给人民需要时间，但要保持维持独立性所必须的政治共识，这至关重要。


Tolerance or War	宽容还是战争


WASHINGTON, DC – Throughout history, mistreatment of minorities – whether ethnic, religious, linguistic, cultural, regional, ideological, sexual, or other – has fueled violence and devastated societies worldwide.	华盛顿——纵观历史，虐待种族、宗教、语言、文化、区域、意识形态、性别或其他领域的少数族裔在世界各地无不对暴力和社会破坏起到推波助澜的效果。


Egregious cases in the last century include the Holocaust in Nazi Germany, the Khmer Rouge killing fields in Cambodia, and the genocide in Rwanda.	上世纪臭名昭著的案例包括纳粹德国大屠杀、柬埔寨红色高棉杀戮场，以及卢旺达的种族灭绝。


The abuse of minorities, and reactions to it, often are linked to fault lines in conflicted societies.	冲突社会中存在的断层往往会引发对少数族裔的虐待以及由此产生的连锁反应。


Minorities tend to experience economic inequality and political marginalization.	少数族裔时常会沦为经济不平等和政治边缘化的受害者。


This negative trend shows no sign of waning.	这样一种消极趋势丝毫没有减弱。


While international treaties, national laws, more and stronger institutions, improved education, and efforts by organized religious groups to foster respect for minorities can help to ameliorate the problem, collective efforts have so far fallen woefully short.	尽管国际条约、国内法律、各式机构、不断改善的教育和有组织宗教团体强化对少数民族尊重的努力能够有助于改善现状，但到目前为止相关的集体努力仍然达不到应有的效果。


The problem will not disappear until people stop tolerating intolerance.	除非人们停止纵容狭隘，否则问题就永远不会消失。


And recent history – from the indiscriminate killings by the Lord’s Resistance Army in central and eastern Africa to the attacks against Christians by the Pakistani Taliban – shows that bigotry remains deeply embedded.	从圣主抵抗军在非洲中东部不分青红皂白的杀戮，到巴基斯坦塔利班针对基督徒的攻击，近期发生的事件表明偏见仍然在人们心中深深地根植。


Moreover, globalization and instantaneous communication technologies have made it impossible to contain conflict within national borders.	此外，全球化和即时通信技术的发展导致已不可能将冲突控制在国境范围内。


Domestic economic and political grievances can now buttress discontent across regions and continents.	对国内经济和政治局势的不满现在可以传遍整个地区和大陆。


Ethnic conflict in countries such as Kenya, Sudan, Sri Lanka, and the former Yugoslavia underscores the challenge of reducing – and eventually eliminating – intolerance.	肯尼亚、苏丹、斯里兰卡和前南斯拉夫等国的种族冲突凸显出减少及最终消除偏执的难度。


But some other multiethnic societies such as Tanzania and Burkina Faso have largely escaped communal conflict.	但坦桑尼亚和布基纳法索等多种族社会却在很大程度上摆脱了种族冲突。


Others, including Belgium and Cameroon, have avoided serious conflict, but have experienced significant acrimony over the treatment of linguistic and regional minorities.	以比利时和喀麦隆为首的其他国家虽成功避免了严重冲突，但却无法摆脱在语言和区域少数族裔待遇问题上的激烈争执。


And, in different periods, Lebanon has managed and mismanaged official policy toward religious and ethnic minorities.	黎巴嫩在不同时期对待弱势宗教及少数族裔的官方政策均不乏成功和失败的先例。


Understanding the factors at play in these countries can help policymakers and religious and civil-society leaders to address intolerance.	深入理解在上述国家起作用的因素可以帮助决策者、宗教及民间社会领袖解决偏执问题。


Intolerance emanating from organized religion is perhaps the most inexcusable.	其中最不可原谅的或许当属有组织宗教造成的偏执问题。


On the one hand, all organized religions teach peace and love for others, and they have often intervened successfully to prevent or mitigate conflict.	一方面一切有组织宗教无不宣扬和平和对他人之爱，类似的教义往往能成功干预防止或者缓解冲突。


On the other hand, at certain times in their history, organized religions have allowed, encouraged, and even propagated hatred and violence.	而另一方面，在特定历史阶段，有组织宗教往往又允许、鼓励甚至宣扬仇恨和暴力。


And fringe elements often use religion to espouse violence against particular groups.	极端分子经常利用宗教提倡对特定群体发动暴力袭击。


In recent decades, Roman Catholic and Protestant leaders failed to speak out early and effectively against the genocide in Rwanda.	近几十年来，罗马天主教和基督教领袖均未能及时有效制止发生在卢旺达的种族灭绝行为。


Similarly, rather than condemning the adoption of terrorist tactics by the Taliban in Afghanistan, Boko Haram in Nigeria, and al-Shabaab in Somalia, and the destruction of Sufi shrines in Mali by Ansar Dine, a radical Islamist sect, Muslim leaders have remained largely silent.	同样，穆斯林领袖在大体上选择保持沉默，而不去谴责阿富汗塔利班、尼日利亚博科圣地、索马里青年党和伊斯兰激进教派伊斯兰后卫在马里破坏苏菲神殿的恐怖主义行为。


While none of these groups represents a majority point of view, they do exert significant influence and probably believe that they are acting in the interest of the majority.	尽管上述团体均代表不了主流观点，但他们的确产生了重大的影响，也许还相信他们代表了大多数人的利益。


Developments following the Arab Spring might provide some indication of the prospects for religious tolerance.	阿拉伯之春运动的进展可能在一定程度上代表了宗教宽容的未来。


In Egypt, with its 10% Coptic Orthodox Christian minority, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi won the presidency in a free and fair election, after which Morsi resigned from the party, saying that this would allow him to represent all Egyptians more effectively, and promised that he would respect minority rights.	尽管科普特东正教只占埃及总人口的10%，但穆斯林兄弟会的穆罕默德·穆尔西却赢得了这场自由公正的选举。 之后穆尔西辞去党内职务，称这样更有利于他代表所有埃及人。


Yet subsequent actions designed to give him unprecedented executive power raise concerns about these early positive steps.	穆尔西承诺会尊重少数民族权利。 但其后旨在赋予他史无前例行政权力的行为却引发了人们对这些早期积极措施的忧虑。


By protecting minorities, Morsi could demonstrate to other governments and political movements the importance of minority rights and encourage them to behave likewise.	通过为少数族裔提供保护，穆尔西能向其他政府和政治运动证明少数民族权利的重要性，并鼓励他们采取同样的措施。


But it remains to be seen whether his Islamist political base, including hardline Salafists, who won some 20% of the parliamentary vote, will be tolerant of the Christian minority in the months and years to come.	但其身后的伊斯兰政治大本营，包括赢得20%议会投票的强硬的萨里菲派在内，能否在今后的岁月中容忍基督教少数族裔仍是个有待观察的问题。


Syria will be an even more important test.	叙利亚更是一个重要的测试。


The Alawites, who comprise only 11% of the population, dominate President Bashar al-Assad’s crumbling regime.	仅占总人口11%的阿拉维派却在总统巴沙尔·阿萨德摇摇欲坠的政权中占据主导地位。


While the ruling minority has been generally tolerant of Christians, Kurds, Druze, and Turks, who together comprise 29% of the population, the regime has long oppressed the Sunni majority.	尽管执政的少数族裔政权普遍对合计占总人口29%的基督徒、库尔德人和德鲁兹人持容忍态度，却长期压迫逊尼派多数族裔。


If a Sunni-controlled government replaces the current leadership, its decision to protect minorities’ rights would be particularly encouraging.	如果由逊尼派控制的政府取代目前的政府，其保护少数族裔权利的决策必将特别鼓舞人心。


Democratic governments are often perceived as more respectful of minorities, given that, unlike autocratic regimes, a democratic system with an elected legislature, independent judicial system, strong civil society, and free press provides citizens with opportunities to express their views and pursue justice.	人们普遍认为民主政府更加尊重少数族裔，因为与专制政权相反，由选举产生的立法机构、独立司法体系、强大公民社会和自由媒体组成的民主体系为民众提供了表达见解和寻求公正的机遇。


But, while democracies do have a better record of protecting minorities, a democratic system does not guarantee respect for minorities any more than autocracy ensures their repression.	但尽管民主政体的确在尊重少数族裔的问题上拥有更好的记录，但民主制度却无法确保尊重少数族裔，就像谁也无法肯定独裁政体一定会对少数族裔秉持镇压态度。


An enlightened autocrat can be just as protective of minority rights as a solidly democratic government.	一个开明的独裁政权可以像真正的民主政权一样保护少数民族权益。


That said, when it comes to respecting minority rights, democracies have a far better record than autocracies.	也就是说，在尊重少数族裔权利问题上，民主政体相比独裁政体有着明显的优势。


This is one of the main reasons why, throughout history, democracies have rarely fought each other.	这也是纵观历史民主政体很少相互交战的主要原因之一。


This commentary is part of the Carnegie Council Centennial projects.	This commentary is part of the Carnegie Council Centennial projects.


Preventing Toxic Stress in Children	如何防止对儿童有害的压力


Cambridge – What if political leaders around the world could improve school achievement and job readiness, reduce crime, and extend healthy life expectancy – but the results would not be seen until after they left public office?	剑桥——世界各国的政客们往往在卸任之后，才会关注提升学校的教学质量，增加就业机会，减少犯罪率和延长人口寿命等问题。


Would they have the political courage to act now in the best long-term interest of their people?	为了国家的长期利益，他们是否有政治勇气在任上就采取行动呢？


Or would they become mired in ineffective, poorly-funded attempts to obtain quick results, and then say it couldn’t be done?	或者还是为了急功近利而采取空洞而无资金投入的政策之后，然后说这是不可能完成的任务呢？


Thanks to a remarkable convergence of new scientific knowledge about the developing brain, the human genome, and the effects of early experiences on later learning, behavior, and health, these are not hypothetical questions.	由于科技的发展，人们对大脑的开发，人类基因以及早期的经历对后天学习，行为和健康等方面的影响都有了新的科学认识。 现在，这些都不是未知的领域了。


We have the knowledge to secure our future by improving the life prospects of all our young children.	我们有能力提高所有儿童的生活质量，给他们一个美好的未来。


What is needed now is political vision and leadership.	目前需要的就是政治家的眼光和领导力了。


Scientists can now credibly say that the early childhood years – from birth to age 5 – lay the foundation for later economic productivity, responsible citizenship, and a lifetime of sound physical and mental health.	经过多年的研究，科学家发现，人类在0到5岁期间的早期教育对日后谋生能力，社会责任感和心理生理的健康起着十分重要的作用。


Conversely, deep poverty, abuse, neglect, and exposure to violence in early childhood can all lead to toxic stress.	反之，如果在儿童时期，孩子遭受过分的贫穷，虐待和漠视以及暴力等，将会给他的一生都会有负面的压力。


In contrast to normal or tolerable stress, which can build resilience and properly calibrate a child’s stress-response system, toxic stress is caused by extreme, prolonged adversity in the absence of a supportive network of adults to help the child adapt.	压力如果是正常或是在可以接受范围内的，儿童可以建立一个正确应对压力的反应机制。 有害的压力是指孩子在长期生活在艰难严酷的环境之中，同时得不到成人有效的帮助。


When it occurs, toxic stress can actually damage the architecture of the developing brain, leading to disrupted circuits and a weakened foundation for future learning and health.	一旦孩子持续经受这样有害的压力，发育的大脑就会受到损害，这对将来的健康以及学习能力都有非常不好的影响。


The lasting, neurobiological effect on young children who experience toxic stress leads to a far greater likelihood of anti-social behavior, lower achievement in school and at work, and poor physical and mental health – all of which society addresses at great cost.	一旦孩子受到长期的有害的压力，很容易导致形成反社会性的人格特质，在学校和工作中状态低靡，生理心理上受到伤害——这一切都会增加社会的成本。


Deep poverty is but one risk factor for toxic stress and its long-term consequences.	极端的贫穷是导致有害压力产生的原因之一。


The greatest harm comes from the cumulative burden of multiple risk factors, including neglect, abuse, parental substance abuse or mental illness, and exposure to violence.	不过，有害压力产生往往来源于其他因素，例如被漠视，被虐待，以及来自父母的物质精神虐待和暴力等。


With each additional risk factor, the odds of long-term damage to brain architecture increase.	每一个因素都会对孩子的大脑发育产生长期的损害。


Neuroscience and the biology of stress help us to begin to understand how poverty and other adversities are literally built into our bodies.	神经学和生物学的研究使得我们了解到，贫穷以及其他不利因素是如何伤害到我们身体的。


Prolonged activation of the body’s stress system during early development can damage the formation of the neural connections that comprise our brain architecture and set our stress-response system at a hair-trigger level.	儿童时期长期的精神压力可能伤害到神经联结的形成，从而影响到大脑的结构，最终导致压力应急反应过于敏感。


We can thus comprehend why children born into such circumstances have more problems in school, are more likely to commit crimes, and are more prone to heart disease, diabetes, and a host of other physical and mental illnesses later in life.	我们现在可以理解，为什么大量在这种环境下成长的孩子会在学校里成为问题学生，更有可能走向犯罪或是容易患上心脏病，糖尿病和其他等生理心理方面的疾病。


By addressing the circumstances that can produce toxic stress – always asking, “How can we best protect our children?” – local, national, and global leaders would improve not only the life prospects of their youngest citizens, but also outcomes for their societies.	在有关形成有害压力的外部环境问题上，我们不禁要问：“我们怎样更好地保护孩子呢？ ”——地区，国家以及世界的领袖们不仅要给青年们带来美好的个人生活，也要给他们带来美好的社会前景。


A wide range of policies and practices that support positive relationships and quality learning experiences – at home, in early care and education programs, and through targeted interventions – can have a positive impact if based on solid evidence and matched to the specific needs they are expected to address.	他们推出一系列有利于他们的政策和措施，帮助儿童建立起积极的人际关系和高质量的学习经历——通过有目的的引导，使得他们在家庭，早期培养和教育项目中得以受益，给以他们应有的关注。


Beyond their short-term benefits to individuals, extensive economic analysis also has demonstrated significant financial benefits to society for years to come. Science points to three things that we can do to level the playing field:	除了这些短期的项目之外，长期分析研究显示，社会经济条件的改善也会起着一定的作用，从科学的角度来说，我们应该关注以下三个方面：


·        Make basic medical services and early care and education available to all young children;	·        对所有的孩子提供基本的医疗服务和早期的教育；


·        Provide greater financial support and rich learning experiences for young children living in poverty; and	·        对贫穷的孩子提供更多的经济支持和更好的教育；


·        Offer specialized services for young children experiencing toxic stress from difficult life circumstances.	·        . 给在有害压力下成长的孩子提供特殊的关爱服务。


The scientific principles of early childhood development do not vary by family income, program type, or funding source.	对儿童早期科学的教育不能因为家庭的收入，所从事的项目以及资金投入的不同而有所区别。


In advanced countries, programs that screen for adversity and respond to the specific health and developmental needs of individual children and families can yield benefits that far exceed their costs.	在发达国家，对儿童和家庭出现问题的研究，以及随后推出的解决方案所带来的好处，远远大于所投入的费用。


In developing countries, shifting the focus of international investments from an exclusive focus on child survival to an integrated approach to early childhood health and development offers greater promise than addressing either domain alone.	对于发展中国家来说，从对孩子生存权的关注转向全面关心孩子早期教育，后者的做法会给孩子带来更大的好处。


Children burdened by significant economic insecurity, discrimination, or maltreatment benefit most from effective interventions.	通过有效的干预，我们可以大大缓解了由于经济窘困，被歧视，被虐待而导致儿童精神上的有害的压力。


Neuroscience, child development, and the economics of human capital formation all point to the same conclusion: creating the right conditions for early childhood development is far more effective than trying to fix problems later.	神经学，对儿童智力的开发和人类的经济活动都得出同一个结论：对进行孩子早期教育，给他们创造一个良好的环境，比起后期出现问题后的解决来说，社会所付出的成本代价要小的多。


Finally, leadership is about more than smart economic decisions. It is also about moral responsibility, wisdom, judgment and courage – and about leveraging knowledge to promote positive social change.	最后，领导力不只是有关经济成本的考量，这还关乎到道德，责任，智慧，判断力和勇气——运用我们的知识技能来推动有利于社会积极方面的变革。


The negative consequences of poverty and other forms of adversity are not inevitable.	贫穷和其他艰难环境对孩子的负面影响不是不可以避免的。


The gap between what we know and what we do is growing and increasingly unconscionable.	我目前已经认识到的和已经开始做的还有一段不小的距离。


The time for leadership on behalf of vulnerable children is now.	现在是该政治人物为那些柔弱的孩子做一些什么的时候了。


Preventive Diplomacy, Not Pre-Emptive Strikes	预防性外交，而非先发制人


Finally, the United Nations Security Council has unanimously agreed a resolution to end the crisis in Lebanon.	联合国安理会最终一致同意通过了一项结束黎巴嫩危机的决议。


Now, the first priority must be a full and immediate ceasefire to end the suffering of unarmed civilians and make way for peace.	现在，最先要解决的问题是实行全面和立即停火以结束那些手无寸铁的平民的灾难并实现和平。


The international community must be guided in their actions by a common conviction that violence is never a viable solution.	国际社会在行动时必须共同认识到暴力永远不会是一个能取得成功的解决方案。


We, the authors of this article, as well as the organization we represent, the Socialist International, have always defended Israel’s right to exist and defend itself.	我们作为本文的作者，同时还有我们所代表的组织--社会党国际，一直都为以色列的生存权和自卫权辩护。


We wish to see Israeli citizens living in peace and security alongside all their neighbors.	我们希望看到以色列人民与邻居和平共处。


We have consistently condemned attacks that target innocent Israelis.	我们一直都谴责针对无辜以色列平民的攻击行为。


Israel claims its actions in Gaza and Lebanon are designed to safeguard its own security.	以色列辩称它在加沙和黎巴嫩的行动是为了保护它自身的安全。


However, indiscriminate use of force and continued occupation will never give Israel lasting security.	然而，不加区别地使用武力以及持续的占领永远不会给以色列带来持久和平。


The response to Hezbollah’s initial aggression, as well as Israel’s military response in Gaza, is disproportionate.	对于真主党首先发动进攻的回应，跟以色列在加沙的军事回应是过度的。


The devastation in Lebanon will take generations to repair, not only materially, but also psychologically.	在黎巴嫩所造成的破坏将需要几代人才能修复，不仅是物质上的，也是心理上的。


Hezbollah, which claims it is fighting for Lebanese independence and sovereignty, also bears responsibility for unacceptable aggression, placing the lives of innocent Israelis and Lebanese at stake.	宣称是为黎巴嫩人民的独立和主权而战的真主党也应该对令人无法接受的攻击以及置无辜的以色列以及黎巴嫩人民的生命于不顾的行为负责。


We are convinced that the way these policies are carried out will only deepen mistrust, heighten polarization, and embed hatred between neighbors who have to learn to live with each other.	我们认为这些政策的实施只会在这些必须学会和平共处的邻居间加深不信任，加剧分化，并且植入仇恨。


A military solution is not viable.	靠武力解决是不可能成功的。


War is strengthening the hand of those who regard terror as the only effective weapon, thus creating a breeding ground for more violence, insecurity, and extremism across the Middle East.	战争只会加强那些视恐怖主义为唯一有效武器的人，从而在中东地区为更多的暴力活动、不安全和极端主义制造流血的土壤。


With moderates being marginalized, the long-term effect will be to undermine democratization efforts in the region.	在温和派被排斥在外后，长期下去它将削弱该地区的民主化努力。


Innovative and bold diplomatic initiatives for peace must be launched as an alternative to the logic of military force.	必须提出创新和大胆的外交和平倡议以取代武力逻辑。


This has happened before.	这在以前曾经有过。


The Gulf War led to the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991 and the subsequent Oslo accords between the PLO and Israel in 1993.	海湾战争带来了1991年的马德里和平会议以及随后在1993年巴解组织和以色列的奥斯陆协议。


This crisis, too, can be a stepping-stone for a long-term political solution involving all parties in the Middle East.	这些危机同样可以成为给中东地区的冲突各方带来一项长期的政治解决方案的契机。


Today’s incoherent, piecemeal strategies will not break the cycle of violence.	目前不连贯和零碎的策略不会打破暴力冲突的怪圈。


As well as taking collective action to stop the war in Lebanon and Gaza, key players like the “quartet” – the UN, the United States, the European Union, and Russia – must develop a comprehensive security framework for the Middle East.	除了采取集体行动以制止在黎巴嫩和加沙地带的战争，中东四方，即联合国、美国、欧盟和俄罗斯必须为中东地区建立一个全面的安全框架。


The international community should demand the immediate start of negotiations towards the creation of a Palestinian state and push for direct negotiations on a peace agreement between Israel and Syria.	国际社会应该要求马上启动针对建立巴勒斯坦国的谈判，以及推动以色列和叙利亚直接和谈以达成一项和平协议。


If the international community is to remain credible, a regional initiative for collective security – a Madrid II – needs to be taken.	如果国际社会想继续保持可信度的话，那它应该提出一项促进地区共同安全的倡议，即马德里续集。


This presupposes the engagement of all parties, including Syria and Iran, as well as all political and religious groups.	这意味着要把所有的冲突方，包括叙利亚和伊朗以及所有的政治和宗教团体都包括进来。


A strategy of isolation has resulted in a dangerous alliance of convenience among extremist forces excluded from political processes and power structures.	隔离政策使那些被排除在政治进程和权力结构之外的极端势力组成了危险的权宜联盟。


Unless leading actors have ownership of local solutions, peace will never be sustainable.	除非主要各方能拿出局部的解决方案，否则和平将永远得不到持续。


If we hope to halt violent extremism, we must engage religious and militant groups in dialogue and address the root causes of violence.	如果我们希望制止暴力极端主义，那我们必须让宗教和军事组织加入到对话中来以解决暴力冲突的根源问题。


Both the PLO and Israeli militant groups active at the time of Israel’s creation moved away from violence once the international community engaged them.	在以色列创立时都非常活跃的巴解和以色列的军事组织在国际社会让它们加入到对话中来后都远离了暴力。


Likewise, influential groups such as Hamas, the legitimate winner of the Palestinian elections, cannot be eliminated by military force, however powerful, nor exorcised by decree.	同样，像哈马斯这样有影响力的组织同时又是巴勒斯坦选举合法的获胜者，不会被不管有多么强大的军事力量所消灭，也不会被任何法令所除掉。


For their part, radicalized groups must renounce violence and accept international principles and laws.	对他们来说，激进组织必须放弃暴力并且接受国际社会的准则和法律。


Causing loss of lives does not contribute to the present or future welfare of the people of the region.	打打杀杀不会有助于这个地区的人民现在和将来的福祉。


There is currently no guarantee that a political truce with Hamas or Hezbollah would result in a renunciation of their absolutist vision.	当前并不能保证与哈马斯或真主党的政治上的停战协定会让它们放弃它们对事情绝对主义的看法。


Nonetheless, there can be a diplomatic process with rights and obligations.	然而，可以进行权利和责任共存的外交努力。


To secure lasting peace, the key is to develop political mechanisms that allow space for moderation and democracy.	为保证持续和平，关键在于建立一个可以给温和派和民主派提供空间的政治机制。


We therefore must support political alternatives to violent extremism.	因此我们必须政治上的努力以取代暴力极端主义。


Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ initiative to unite the Palestinian leadership may lead to greater moderation on the part of Hamas and create real prospects for the negotiation of a two-state solution.	巴勒斯坦总统阿巴斯联合巴勒斯坦领导层的倡议也许会使哈马斯方面变得更加温和，并且为双方的和解创造真正的前景。


If this effort is successful, the international community must cooperate fully and swiftly with the Palestinian Authority.	这一努力要想成功，国际社会必须全面、迅速地与巴勒斯坦权力机构进行合作。


Our appeal is for preventive diplomacy rather than pre-emptive strikes.	我们呼吁进行预防性的外交手段而不是先发制人的打击。


This policy of inclusion rather than exclusion is based on political pragmatism and the belief that this carnage can and must stop.	这一包容而不是加以排斥的方针是基于政治上的实用主义以及认为这场流血冲突能够也必须结束。


To save innocent people from paying with their lives, the world’s leaders must act quickly and boldly.	为了不让无辜的人们再牺牲生命，世界上的领导人必须快速并且大胆地行动起来。


The Socialist International is committed to working hard with its partners in the region to make peace in the Middle East a reality.	社会党国际将和它在该地区的合作伙伴一道努力在中东创造现实的和平。


The Limits of Oil’s Rebound	石油反弹的极限


LONDON – For the first time since last October, the price of a barrel of oil has broken through $50.	伦敦—自去年10月以来，石油价格首次突破了每桶50美元。


So it seems a good time to update the analysis I presented in January 2015.	看起来是时候更新我在2015年1月所做的分析了。


Back then, I argued that $50 or thereabouts would turn out to be a long-term ceiling for the oil price.	当时，我指出50美元左右将成为石油价格的长期顶部。


At the time, with crude prices still above $60, almost everyone believed that $50 would be the rock-bottom floor.	当时原油仍在60美元以上，几乎所有人都认为50美元是铁底。


After all, futures markets predicted prices of $75 or higher; the Saudi and Russian governments needed $100 to balance their budgets; and any price much below $50 was considered unsustainable, because it would put the US shale-oil industry out of business.	毕竟，期货市场预测价格将保持在75美元或以上，沙特和俄罗斯政府需要100美元的价格才能保持预算平衡； 而任何低于50美元的价格都被认为是不可持续的，因为这将让美国页岩油行业破产。


As it happened, the price of Brent crude did fluctuate between $50 and $70 in the first half of last year, before plunging decisively below $50 in early August, when it became obvious that the lifting of sanctions against Iran would unleash a massive increase in global supply.	事实证明，去年上半年，布伦特原油确实在50美元到70美元的区间内波动，然后再8月初决定性地跌破50美元，当时取消伊朗制裁显然将大幅提高全球供给。


Since then, $50 has indeed proved to be a ceiling for the oil price.	此后，50美元果真成为石油价格的顶部。


But now that this level has been exceeded, will it again become a floor?	但现在这一水平已被突破，它会再次成为底部吗？


That seems to be what many investors are expecting.	这似乎正是许多投资者所期望的。


Hedge funds and other “non-commercial” speculators have increased their long positions to an all-time high of 555,000 of the main oil contracts traded on the New York futures market, compared to the previous record of 548,000 contracts, set just before the oil price peaked at $120 in June 2014.	对冲基金和其他“非商业”投机者将多头头寸提高到了历史最高水平，纽约期货市场主力原油合约达到了555,000张，而此前的记录为548,000张，发生在2014年6月石油价格见顶于120美元前夕。


The return of speculative enthusiasm is usually a reliable sign that the next big price move will probably be down.	投机热情的回归常常是一个可靠指标，表明下一次价格大波动方向很可能为向下。


More important, the fundamental arguments are more compelling than ever that $50 or thereabouts will continue to be a price ceiling, rather than a floor.	更重要的是，基本面比以往任何时候都更加支持50美元左右继续充当价格顶部而不是底部。


The case begins, as it did in January 2015, by observing that the oil market is no longer controlled by the monopoly power of OPEC (or the Saudi government and OPEC).	和2015年1月一样，首先必须看到石油市场已不再被欧佩克（或沙特政府和欧佩克）垄断力量所控制。


Because of new sources of supply, advances in energy technology, and environmental constraints, oil is now operating under a regime of competitive pricing, like other commodities do.	由于出现了新的供给源、能源技术的进步以及环境制约，石油和其他大宗商品一样，目前处于竞争性定价机制中。


This is what happened for two decades from 1985 to 2004, and, as the chart below shows, trading in the spot market during the past 18 months has been consistent with this idea.	1985—2004年这二十年便是如此，而如下图所示，过去18个月的现货市场交易情况也与这一观点相符。


So has trading in the futures market: oil for delivery in 2020 has fallen to $56, from $75 a year ago.	期货市场交易亦然：2020年交割的石油价格已跌至56美元，而一年前为75美元。


If this competitive regime continues, the price of oil will no longer be determined by the needs and desires of oil-producing governments.	如果这一竞争性定价机制继续，石油价格就不再随产油国的需要和意愿而决定。


Saudi Arabia or Russia may want, or even “need,” an oil price of $70 or $80 to balance their budgets.	沙特阿拉伯或俄罗斯也许希望、甚至“需要”石油价格达到70或80美元以实现预算平衡。


But oil producers’ need for a certain price does not mean that they can achieve it, any more than iron-ore or copper producers can achieve whatever price they “need” to keep paying the dividends their shareholders expect or want.	但产油国需要某个价格并不意味着能够实现这个价格，就像铁矿石或铜生产商不一定能实现支付股东期望或想要的红利所“需要”的价格。


Similarly, the fact that many debt-burdened shale producers will go bankrupt if the oil price stays below $50 is no reason to expect a rebound.	类似地，如果石油价格保持在50美元以下，那么许多负债累累的页岩生产商将破产，这一事实亦不构成反弹的理由。


These companies will simply lose their oil properties to banks or competitors with stronger finances.	这些公司只不过是将它们的石油产权输给了银行或财务更加坚挺的竞争对手。


The new owners will then start to pump oil again from the same acreage, provided prices are above the marginal cost of production, which will now exclude any interest payments on loans that are written off.	接下去，新的所有者将在同一片土地上重新钻井，只要价格高于边际生产成本——现在这一成本已经可以剔除被减记的贷款的利息开支。


A clear illustration of the “regime change” that has taken place in the oil market is the current rebound in prices to around the $50 level (the likely ceiling of the new trading range).	对石油市场已经发生的“机制转换”的一个清晰的说明便是当前价格反弹至50美元水平（可能成为新的交易区间顶部）。


The steepest part of this increase occurred after April 17, when OPEC failed to agree on a new price target and persuade the Saudi, Russian, and Iranian governments to coordinate the output cuts that would be required to achieve any such target.	这一反弹最激烈的部分发生在4月17日，即欧佩克达成新的价格目标并说服沙特、俄罗斯和伊朗政府合作削减产量以实现这一目标失败之后。


Now that all of the main oil producers are unequivocally committed to maximizing production, regardless of the impact prices, oil will continue to trade just like any other commodity (for example, iron ore) that is in oversupply in a competitive market.	如今，所有主要生产国都明确地要致力于产量最大化而不管石油价格如何，因此石油将继续和其他处于竞争市场中供给过剩状态的大宗商品（如铁矿石）一样。


Prices will be determined as described in any standard economics textbook: by the marginal costs of the last supplier whose production is needed to meet global demand.	价格的决定将遵从标准的经济学教科书模式：由满足全球需求所需要的最后一位供给者的边际成本决定。


When oil demand is fairly strong, as it is now and tends to be in early summer, the price will be set by the marginal production costs in US shale basins and Canadian tar sands.	当石油需求强劲时——比如现在，一般出现在初夏时节——价格将由美国页岩油和加拿大油砂的边际生产成本决定。


When demand is weak, as it often is in autumn and winter, the market-clearing price will be set by marginal producers of cheap but less accessible oil in Asia and Africa, such as Kazakhstan, eastern Siberia, and Nigeria.	当需求疲软时——一般出现在秋天和冬天——市场出清价格将由亚洲和非洲的廉价但较难获得的石油边际生产国决定，比如哈萨克斯坦、东西伯利亚和尼日利亚��


From now on, the costs faced by these marginal producers will set the top and bottom of oil’s trading range.	从现在开始，这些边际生产国所面临的成本将决定石油交易区间的顶部和底部。


Low-cost producers in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Russia will continue to pump as much as their physical infrastructure can transport as long as the price is higher than $25 or so.	只要石油价格高于25美元左右，沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、伊朗和俄罗斯的低成本生产商就将继续按照实体基础设施的最大运力挖油。


The price needed to elicit enough production from US shale and Canadian tar sands to meet strong demand may be $50, $55, or even $60, but it is unlikely to be much higher than that.	让美国页岩和加拿大油砂开足马力生产以满足强劲需求所需要的价格可能是50/55乃至60美元，但不可能显著高于60。


Unpredictable shifts in supply and demand will, of course, cause fluctuations within this trading range, which past experience suggests could be quite large.	当然，不可预测的供给和需求变动将导致在此交易区间内的波动，过去的经验表明这类波动可能相当剧烈。


In the 20-year period of competitive pricing from 1985 to 2004, the oil price frequently doubled or halved in the course of a few months.	在1985—2004年间的竞争性定价时期，石油价格频繁在几个月时间里翻倍和腰斩。


So the near-doubling of oil prices since mid-January’s $28 low is not surprising.	因此，石油自1月中旬28美元低点的翻番走势并不令人惊奇。


But now that the $50 ceiling is being tested, we can expect the next major move in the trading range to be downward.	但如今50美元的顶部正在接受测试，我们可以期待该交易区间内的下一次大走势是下跌。


The Price of Oil in 2015	2015年的石油价格


LONDON – In late 1979, I began work on my PhD thesis, an empirical investigation of the OPEC surplus and its disposal.	发自伦敦——1979年末，我开始撰写自己的博士论文，内容是对欧佩克国家贸易顺差及其使用方式的实证研究。


It was the end of a decade in which oil prices had undergone two dramatic increases, and most of the various geniuses of the day were confidently predicting that they would continue to soar, from under $40 per barrel – a historic high at that time – to above $100.	在之前近十年间，石油价格经历了两场戏剧性的增长，当时各个领域的绝大多数领袖人物也都预测油价将继续飙升，从每桶40美元（当时的历史高点）飙升到100美元以上。


By the time I finished my research in 1982, the price of oil had begun what would become a 20-year plunge.	等我在1982年完成研究时，石油价格已开始了长达20年的暴跌。


It would not hit $100 per barrel until January 2008.	油价一直未达到每桶100美元，直到2008年1月。


I used to joke that the most important thing I learned from my research was never to attempt to forecast the price of oil.	我曾经开玩笑说，从我的研究中学到的最重要事情就是千万不要试图预测石油价格。


As 2014 comes to a close, the price of oil has just crossed the $100 threshold again – this time headed down.	随着2014年接近尾声，石油价格再次回到100美元关口——但这一次是下跌。


One of the big questions for 2015 is whether the decline will continue.	2015年将要面对几大问题之一就是油价是否将继续下降。


Despite my earlier cynicism, I think I know the answer.	纵使我之前的说法有点玩世不恭，但我觉得这次自己能找到答案。


Over the past 33 years, I have had plenty of opportunity to study both oil prices and foreign exchange rates, including overseeing a research department of talented people trying to predict their movements.	在过去的33年里，我有足够的机会来研究石油价格和汇率，包括带领一个汇集众多人才尝试预测石油价格走势的研究部门。


The experience has left me with a good deal of skepticism – not to mention bruises.	这一经历使我产生了一大堆的怀疑——更别说挫折了。


But I do believe that it is possible to make a broad prediction as to where oil prices are headed.	但是我相信还是有可能对石油价格走势进行一个大范围的预测。


Over the course of my career, I have tried to determine whether there is such a thing as an equilibrium oil price.	在职业生涯中，我曾试图确定是否存在油价平衡点。


I have spent many hours trying to guide, cajole, and beg my energy analysts to create a model that might identify it, just as we have for currencies, bond yields, and equities.	我已经花了很多时间试图引导，哄骗，乞求我的能源分析师创建一个模型来识别它，就像我们对货币、债券收益率和股票所做的那样。


I have also discussed the idea with industry experts, most of whom believe that one exists, but that it moves around a lot, because it is greatly influenced by the marginal cost of oil production – itself an unstable variable.	我还与行业专家讨论了这个观点，他们大多相信存在这样一个平衡点，但它常常波动，因为受石油生产的边际成本影响极大，而这个成本本身是一个不稳定的变量。


My conclusion is that a good indication of this moving equilibrium does exist: the five-year forward oil price, or the amount paid for guaranteed delivery of oil five years from now.	我的结论是，证明这个动态平衡点存在的一个有力指标是：五年远期石油价格，或是从现在起五年后保证交付每桶石油所支付的金额。


In my ongoing quest to become better at forecasting, I began, a few years ago, to pay attention to the five-year forward oil price as it compares to the Brent crude oil spot price, the price of a barrel of oil today.	在寻找预测石油价格更完美方式的过程中，我从几年前开始注意五年远期石油价格与布伦特原油现货价格，即今天每桶石油价格的对比。


I suspect that the five-year forward price is much less influenced by speculation in the oil market than the spot price, and more representative of true commercial needs.	我猜想5年远期价格比现货价格更少受到石油市场投机的影响，更能代表真正的商业需求。


So when the five-year price starts moving in a different direction than the spot price, I take notice.	因此，当五年远期价格开始与现货价格移动方向不同时，我就会留神。


In 2011, after both prices had recovered from the collapse induced by the 2008 credit crisis, the five-year price started to come down gradually, while the spot price continued to surge for a while.	2011年，在上述两个价格已经从2008年的信贷危机引起的崩溃中恢复过来后，现货价格继续飙升了一段时间，而五年远期价格逐渐开始回落。


This jibed with what I had identified as two big factors fundamentally driving the price of oil: the early days of the exploitation of shale oil and gas in the United States, and the shift in China’s economic focus from quantity to quality, which implied that the Chinese economy would no longer be consuming energy at the frenetic rate it had been.	这个转向伴随着我认为的从根本上推动石油价格的两大因素：早期美国的页岩油气开发，以及中国经济重点从数量转向质量，这意味着中国经济将不再以疯狂的速度消耗能源。


I concluded that there was a fair chance that oil prices were peaking and that before too long spot prices would reverse and start to decline.	我推断最大的可能性是石油价格达到顶峰，不久现货价格将会逆转，然后开始下跌。


I thought it was probably the beginning of a move back down to $80 per barrel – precisely where the price has landed at the end of 2014.	我想这可能是回落到每桶80美元的开始，而2014年底正是这个价格。


The spot price has even recently slipped below that level.	现货价格最近甚至下滑到低于这一水平。


It was one of my better forecasts.	这是我的比较准的预测之一。


I no longer make predictions for a living, but I do know one thing: Oil prices will either rise or fall.	我已经不用再为挣钱谋生而进行预测，但我知道一件事：石油价格总有起起落落。


And I suspect that I know which way they will go.	并且我能猜想到它们会走向哪个方向。


I recently read an article that suggested that, if oil prices remain at recent levels, US production of shale oil and gas next year could be 10% below recent projections.	最近读到一篇文章，这篇文章指出如果油价维持在近期水平，美国明年生产的页岩油气可能会比最新预测少10%。


That seems plausible; and, given how important shale oil and gas has become to America’s economic recovery, it also seems like something that US policymakers would be eager to avoid.	这看起来是可信的； 同时鉴于页岩油气对美国经济复苏的重要性，美国的政策制定者似乎也希望避免这件事情发生。


They may very well get their wish.	他们的愿望很可能会实现。


Oil prices may not start rising in the coming months, but, as 2014 comes to a close, forces that will eventually halt their decline are beginning to appear.	油价不会在未来几个月内开始上升，但是，随着2014年接近尾声，那些最终让油价停止下跌的力量也开始出现。


The drop in the spot price of oil has taken it significantly below the five-year forward price, which remains close to $80 per barrel.	石油现货价格的下跌已经使其显著低于接近每桶80美元的五年远期价格。


My hunch for 2015 is that oil prices may continue to drop in the short term; unlike in the past four years, however, they are likely to finish the year higher than they were when it began.	2015年我的预感是，油价可能在短期内继续下降，但与在过去四年不同的是，年末的油价可能会比年初要高。


Spurring Private Investment for Development	刺激私人发展投资


STRASBOURG – Successful economic development has hewed to a well-known pattern.	斯特拉斯堡—成功的经济发展坚守一条广为人知的路径。


Lifting a country out of poverty and placing it on a path of sustainable growth requires hard work, the creation of a robust system of property rights, and – crucially – private investment.	让一国摆脱贫困、走上可持续发展之路需要努力工作、建立强健的财产权利制度，以及——至关重要的——私人投资。


This method is not specific to a particular region or people.	这一方法不是某个特殊地区或民族专享。


As Asia’s spectacular growth has demonstrated, it is transferable across cultures.	亚洲令人瞩目的增长证明，这一方法可以移植到不同文化。


So it is a shame that development economists and the world’s multilateral institutions are failing to apply it systematically in the developing world.	因此，发展经济学家和全球多边机构无法将其系统地应用于发展中世界令人蒙羞。


Billions of dollars of aid has been poured into developing countries, but it has not been enough, and the results have been disappointing.	数十亿美元援助资金被用于发展中国家，但并不足够，结果也令人失望。


The World Bank estimates that one billion people still live on less than $1.25 a day, while more than 800 million do not have enough to eat.	世界银行估算仍有十亿人每天的生活费不足1. 25美元，更有8亿多人吃不饱饭。


The Millennium Development Goals attempted to apply a comprehensive approach to reducing poverty, but the MDGs failed to address its underlying causes.	千年发展目标尝试应用全面的方针降低贫困，但并没有解决贫困的根源。


On paper, at least, the United Nation’s new Sustainable Development Goals, put in place last year, are an improvement.	至少在纸面上，去年开始实施的联合国新可持续发展目标是一次改进。


The trouble is that lofty ambitions come with a high price tag, and there remains a funding gap of around $2.5 trillion if all 17 goals are to be met.	麻烦在于宏伟的目标代价也十分高昂，如果要实现全部17个目标，目前的资金缺口高达2. 5万亿美元左右。


A chasm this big cannot be bridged by cash-strapped governments and taxpayers alone.	如此大的缺口无法由囿于现金的政府和纳税人独力填补。


That is why a recent decision by the European Parliament to back my report calling for the mobilization of private capital in the fight against global poverty is so important.	因此，欧洲议会最近决定支持我的报告非常重要。 该报告呼吁动员私人资本减少全球贫困。


For the first time in the parliament’s history, its members acknowledged the private sector as a key partner in wealth creation in the developing world.	议员承认私人部门是发展中世界财富创造的关键合作伙伴之一，这在欧洲议会史上还是第一次。


Given that the European Union is one of the biggest providers of development aid, the decision could be highly significant.	欧盟是发展援助的最大提供者之一，因此这一决定可能意义重大。


To be sure, winning a vote, while never straightforward, is the easy part.	诚然，赢得投票支持尽管算不上易如反掌，也绝非难事。


The challenge will be translating words into action.	挑战在于将言语转化为行动。


The early signs are heartening.	早期信号令人振奋。


Marianne Thyssen, the EU’s employment and labor commissioner, wants work on implementing the report to begin immediately.	欧盟就业和劳工委员玛莉安妮·泰森（Marianne Thyssen）希望立刻着手实施我的报告。


She has promised that the European Commission will invest more than €2 billion ($2.27 billion) to support the private sector in the developing world by 2020.	她承诺欧盟将在2020年前投资20亿多欧元用于支持发展中世界的四分部门。


She expects that €4.8 billion in EU grants would leverage at least €66 billion in investment in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America by financial institutions and private firms.	她预期欧盟提供的48亿欧元资金至少能够在撒哈拉以南非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲撬动660亿欧元的金融机构和私人企业投资。


If the EU’s entire development budget was similarly maximized, we could mobilize about €300 billion of capital, which, if spent on acquiring equipment, plant, and technology from Europe, could give an enormous boost to the current sluggish growth of the European economies.	如果欧盟的整体发展预算也能类似地实现最大化，我们将可以动员大约3,000亿欧元资本，如果用于从欧洲购买设备、厂房和技术，将极大地提振目前陷入增长停滞的欧洲经济。


An important early task in achieving the desired impact will be to create an environment in which private initiatives can flourish.	实现这一渴望的影响的一个重要的早期任务是营造一个私人项目能够深根发芽的环境。


Currently, micro, small, and medium-size enterprises account for some 60% of the developing world’s employment.	目前，中小微企业贡献了发展中世界就业的60%左右。


And yet 70% of these businesses receive no help from financial institutions, even though investment would enable them to grow and create jobs.	但70%的中小微企业得不到金融机构的帮助，即使投资能够让它们实现增长和创造就业。


We must begin to change this by providing the financial and technical assistance countries need to establish reliable banking systems and tax administrations.	我们必须从改变这一点开始，方法是提供各国建立可靠银行体系和税收部门所需要���金融和技术援助。


Adherence to international accounting standards should be encouraged.	坚持国际会计标准应该得到鼓励。


Transparency must be improved, and corruption must be rooted out.	透明度必须改善，腐败必须根除。


And in many countries, the system of land registration and property rights needs to be formalized, so that individuals and companies gain equity against which they can borrow to invest in their businesses.	在许多国家，土地注册和财产权利制度需要正式化，以使个人和公司能够获得可用于抵押以换取贷款投资于生意的权益。


The effect will be to increase the number of bankable projects in which both local businesses and international firms can invest.	其效果将是增加本地企业和国际企业都能投资的银行可接受项目的数量。


Potential for public-private partnerships exist in energy and telecommunications projects, in wells and irrigation, in the construction sector, in infrastructure such as roads, airports, and harbors, and in processing plants for agro industries, meat, fruit, and vegetables.	公私合作潜力存在于能源和通讯项目，钻井和灌溉，建筑业，公路、机场、港口等基础设施，以及农业企业、肉类、水果和蔬菜处理厂等。


Of course, stringent safeguards must be put in place.	当然，必须实施严格保护。


Private investors will need to agree to binding rules protecting social, environmental, human, and gender rights.	私人投资者必须同意保护社会、环境、人道和性别权利的有法律约束力的规则。


To build trust, EU-level forums should be created, in which the private sector, NGOs, think tanks, and governments can discuss development opportunities.	为了构建信任，必须举办欧盟层面的论坛，让私人部门、非政府组织、智库和政府讨论发展机会。


Helping developing countries grow will stimulate investment opportunities for EU companies and open new markets for their goods.	帮助发展中国家成长将为欧盟公司带来新投资机会，为它们的产品打开新市场。


The result will be a virtuous cycle of development that benefits everyone – and that moves the world significantly closer to achieving the ambitious goals that it has adopted.	结果将是一个有利于所有人的良性发展循环——并让世界大步迈向实现它所制定的宏大目标。


New Frontiers in Development Finance	发展金融的新前沿


WASHINGTON, DC – When the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) expire at the end of this year, the world will have made significant progress on poverty reduction, the provision of safe drinking water and sanitation, and other important objectives.	华盛顿—千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals，MDG）将在今年年底到期，届时世界将在减贫、提供安全饮用水和卫生设施以及其他重要目标方面取得重大进展。


In order to ensure that the next development agenda, underpinned by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), produces even greater progress, world leaders must refine and optimize the MDG framework – particularly when it comes to financing.	为了确保以可持续发展目标（SDG）为基础的下一批发展议程能带来更大的进步，世界领导人必须精炼和优化MDG框架——特别是在融资方面。


The MDGs brought together governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs to support the implementation of key programs and policies, with global partnerships advocating for resources.	MDG让政府、多边机构和非政府组织团结起来支持关键项目和政策的实施，通过全球合作倡导资源。


In order to maximize efficiency, the MDGs were pursued and funded individually, rather than as a unit, with new initiatives being implemented when targets were not being met.	为了实现效率最大化，各个MDG采取逐一追求和筹资的方式，而不是将其作为一个整体，当目标没有实现时采取新措施。


But this approach created some imbalances, with global health and education initiatives attracting far more financing than other efforts.	但这一方针导致了某些失衡，全球卫生和教育计划吸引的资金远多于其他方面。


This sectoral model must be reevaluated ahead of the next development agenda's launch to ensure that such imbalances do not persist.	这一部门模式必须在下一轮发展日程启动前进行重新评���，以确保这些失衡不会持续下去。


Doing so is particularly important, given that the proposed SDGs attempt to incorporate the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, making them more comprehensive and interdependent than the MDGs.	这至关重要，因为酝酿中的SDG将试图结合可持续发展的社会、经济和环境维度，使其比MDG更全面、更独立。


World leaders will have three critical opportunities to develop an integrated approach.	世界领导人有三次机会制定综合方针。


In July, the United Nations will hold a conference on financing for development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.	7月，联合国将在埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴举行发展融资会议。


In September, the UN General Assembly will convene to launch the SDGs.	9月，联合国大会将启动SDG。


And in December, world leaders will attend the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, where they are expected to adopt a binding global agreement on the long-term reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions.	12月，世界领导人将出席第21届2联合国气候变化框架公约缔约国大会（COP21），期望出台关于长期温室气体减排的有约束力的全球协议。


Given the vital importance of finance in supporting development initiatives, it should be among the first issues to be addressed.	提供融资支持发展项目至关重要，因此这应该成为首先解决的问题。


World leaders must avoid making the same mistake they made with the MDGs – the implementation of which was delayed for two years, until financing was agreed at the 2002 Monterrey Consensus – by developing an effective and traceable financing program at their earliest opportunity: the conference in Addis Ababa.	世界领导人必须避免重蹈MDG中的覆辙——MDG的实施被推迟了两年，直到2002年蒙特雷共识（Monterrey Consensus）解决了融资问题才开始。 方法可以是在第一次机会——亚的斯亚贝巴会议上制定有效、可追溯的融资计划。


The urgency consists partly in the scope of financing that the SDGs will require – an amount that will far exceed the resources needed to implement the MDGs.	紧迫性部分来自为ＳＤＧ融资所需要的资金规模——这个数字将远远超过实施MDG所需要的资源。


Beyond funding for initiatives aimed at eradicating poverty and hunger, improving health and education, strengthening governance, and promoting gender equality, investments must be made in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture.	除了为旨在减少贫困与饥饿、改善卫生与教育、强化治理、促进性别平等的项目的融资，还必须在基础设施、能源和农业方面有所投入。


The SDGs will also call for financing global public goods, including environmental protection and efforts to combat climate change and mitigate its impact.	SDG将呼吁为全球公共品提供融资，包括环境保护和抗击气候变化、遏制其影响的措施。


With governments and international donors unable to foot the bill alone, they must develop programs and policies that can channel a larger share of global savings, which now amount to roughly $22 trillion annually, toward the SDGs.	政府和国际出资人无法独力承受如此巨大的资金，它们必须制定能够将更大比例的全球储蓄（目前每年高达约22万亿美元）引向SDG。


Specifically, national and local governments and international financial institutions should leverage their resources by deploying tailored financing measures, including public-private partnerships, performance-based instruments, and a variety of credit and political risk guarantees.	具体而言，国家和地方政府以及国际金融机构必须通过个性化融资措施（包括公私合作、基于表现的工具和各种信用和政治风险担保）撬动资源。


This range of financing measures, adjusted to each country's needs and strengths, can help mitigate risks and improve collaboration.	这类融资措施应根据各国的需要和优势进行调整，从而能够遏制风险、改善合作。


This will be especially pertinent for emerging middle-income economies.	这对于新型中等收入经济体来说尤其重要。


As these countries strengthen their creditworthiness and improve their capacity to manage debt and equity instruments, they will have at their disposal a larger toolkit of financing instruments with which to attract private-sector resources.	如果这些国家增强自己的信誉、改善自己管理债务和股权工具的能力，它们就可以拥有更多的融资工具吸引私人部门自愿。


By tapping private resources, emerging economies can free up much-needed official development assistance (ODA), which can then be channeled toward poverty-reduction efforts and to countries that international private financial flows largely bypass (and that thus have a lower capacity to raise resources domestically).	通过释放私人资源，新兴经济体可以解放急需的官方发展援助（ODA），将其用于减贫措施和国际私人金融流常常绕开的国家（这些国家从国内筹资的能力也因此更低）。


Viable financing solutions should be considered on a case-by-case basis across countries and sectors.	可行的融资办法应该逐一地进行跨国跨部门考察。


To ensure that the Addis Ababa conference produces the needed action, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and several regional multilateral development banks (MDBs) are working on a joint approach that will leverage billions of dollars in grant and ODA funds into the trillions needed to finance the post-2015 agenda.	要确保亚的斯亚贝巴会议采取必要的行动，世界银行、国际货币基金组织（IMF）和一些地区多边开发银行（MDB）正在采取联合行动，该行动将以数十亿美元的现成资金和ODA资金为基础，撬动2015年后议程所需要的数万亿美元融资需求。


MDBs already help, individually and collectively, to leverage scarce official assistance to attract enough capital to finance development projects.	MDB已经开始以个别和集体的方式起作用，利用稀缺的官方援助吸引足够资本为发展项目提供融资。


In fact, their financial leverage is built into their structure: they are fundamentally financial institutions, funded efficiently by small amounts of paid-in capital, which is backed by callable capital from shareholders.	事实上，它们的金融杠杆建立在它们的结构中：从根本上说，它们是金融机构，资金大多来自小额已缴纳资本，并以来自股东的可赎回资本为支持。


The MDBs also have significant operational leverage, stemming from their capacity to establish – through innovation, intermediation, and market creation – conditions that are attractive to the private sector, thereby producing sustainable solutions and investment opportunities.	MDB还拥有巨大的经营杠杆，这一杠杆来自它们通过创新、中介和造市（market creation）营造吸引私人部门条件、从而产生可持续方案和投资机会的能力。


And they provide integrated, cross-sectoral inputs, by investing in the systems, institutions, and capacities that are needed to achieve development goals.	它们还通过投资于实现发展目标所需要的系统、制度和能力提供跨部门的综合投入。


To support this joint approach, the World Bank is providing an analysis, based on 11 case studies, of how countries in diverse circumstances can use a combination of public, private, domestic, and international sources of financing most effectively to fund the implementation of the SDGs.	为了支持这一联合方针，世界银行正在进行一项分析。 这项分析基于11宗案例，研究不同环境下的国家如何综合运用公共、私人、国内和国际资源最有效地筹集资金、实施SDG。


The analysis will also recommend a pragmatic approach to assessing the SDGs' financing needs at the country level.	分析还将给出一个务实的方法建议，用于评估国家层面的SDG融资需要。


The MDBs will discuss their common approach at April's IMF-World Bank Group Spring Meetings.	MDB将在4月的IMF-世界银行集团春季会议上讨论它们的共同方针。


Their ability to identify tangible financing solutions will be crucial to set the stage for the Addis Ababa conference in July – and, indeed, for the successful implementation of the SDGs and the post-2015 development agenda.	它们制定切实融资解决方案的能力将为7月的亚的斯亚贝巴会议奠定基础——事实上，也为SDG和2015年后发展议程的成功实施奠定基础。


Privatizing Africa’s Development	非洲发展的私有化


Lagos – There has been considerable progress on achieving the Millennium Development Goals since their inception in 2000.	拉各斯—自2000年启动以来，“千年发展目标”在实现方面已经取得了长足的进展。


But, despite the best efforts of governments, reaching those goals by the 2015 target date still remains a distant prospect for many countries, not the least of in Africa.	但尽管各国政府全力以赴，在2015年的既定期限之前全部达成这些目标的可能性对于很多国家而言还是微乎其微，更别说非洲了。


Many of us in Africa’s private sector are keen to make a difference in meeting these goals.	许多非洲私营部门的业者都迫切地想为实现这些目标尽一份力。


At the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), reducing poverty on the African continent through private-sector initiative is our mission.	在非洲金融公司(AFC)，通过私营部门的努力减少非洲大陆上的贫困就是我们的使命。


For, in the end, the private sector is and will be the engine of growth in Africa, and its increasingly active involvement in the development process bodes well for the continent.	因为最终，私营部门是也将会是非洲增长的引擎，它日益积极地参与到发展进程当中也符合非洲大陆的利益。


Africa’s development challenges are well known.	非洲在发展中遭遇的挑战众所周知。


More than 40% of its population lives on less than a dollar a day.	超过40%的人口每日生活费用不足一美元。


Over half a billion people live without modern forms of energy, and the continent’s share of global trade remains a paltry 3%.	五亿人在生活中没有使用现代能源，而整个大陆在全球贸易中的份额只有区区3%。


Lack of basic infrastructure and industrial capacity remains one of Africa’s biggest problems, for it sustains poverty and undermines the continent’s ability to compete with the rest of the world.	缺乏基础设施和工业产能仍然是非洲最大的问题之一，因为它令贫困难以消除，并削弱了非洲在世界上的竞争力。


Transport costs for sub-regional trade are double that of other developing regions, and high energy costs contribute significantly to the prohibitive cost of doing business.	次地区贸易的运输成本是其他发展中地区的两倍，高昂的能源成本也使得商务成本居高不下。


Africa needs substantial investments to correct these shortfalls: $75 billion to close its 135-gigawatt power deficit by 2015, and $37 billion to improve transport infrastructure.	非洲需要大量的投资来扭转这些短缺的局面：在2015年以前投资750亿美元以填补1350亿瓦的电力赤字，投资370亿美元改善交通基础设施。


And, despite Africa’s huge natural-resource deposits, heavy manufacturing remains elusive.	尽管非洲的自然资源储量巨大，仍难以吸引重型制造业。


As a result, most of the value chain for the fossil fuel and mining sectors continues to be outside the continent.	其结果是化石燃料和矿业部门的大部分价值链仍处于该大陆之外。


But these challenges have not dampened optimism about Africa’s growth prospects.	但这些挑战并未影响我们对非洲增长前景的乐观态度。


The continent’s economy, after all, has been experiencing its strongest growth in three decades, with annual GDP up by 6% in the past three years.	毕竟，非洲的经济正经历着三十年以来最强劲的增长，在过去三年里的GDP年增长率都达到了6%。


The rebirth of Africa’s private sector – a critical missing ingredient in past development efforts – has played a significant role in driving this performance, and it can fill the investment gap while generating returns in the process.	非洲私营部门的重生—在过去的发展方略当中所缺失的关键元素—在驱动这一发展态势方面发挥了巨大作用。 它可以弥补投资的欠缺，并在此过程中产生回报。


The AFC is promoting such investment, based on a new development-oriented banking style in Africa that involves the proactive creation and management of infrastructure, industrial, and financial assets, including the six leading industrial sectors: power, transport infrastructure, telecoms, oil and gas, mining, and heavy industries.	AFC正在非洲推动这样一种投资。 它以一种新的、以发展为导向的银行业为基础，包括前瞻性地创造和管理基础设施、工业和金融资产，涵盖了六个领导性的工业部门：电力、运输、电信、石油和天然气、矿业和重工业。


These areas offer the greatest development impact and the most attractive returns to investors.	这些领域能提供最大的发展动力和对投资者最具吸引力的回报。


An AFC-led consortium is financing a project that will develop Sub-Saharan Africa’s first deep-sea container port on the Atlantic coastline area of Olokola, Nigeria.	AFC领导的一个财团正为撒哈拉以南的非洲第一个深水集装箱港融资。 该港位于尼日利亚的Olokola，地处大西洋海岸线上。


The completion of this $1 billion landmark project is expected to transform Africa’s shipping and port capacity dramatically.	这一耗资10亿美元的标志性项目的竣工将有望全面转变非洲海运和港口吞吐能力的现状。


Guinea-Bissau is also taking advantage of this new private sector-led development approach.	几内亚-比绍也正充分利用其新的、私营部门领导下的发展机制。


As a member country of the AFC, it will benefit from a private sector-driven initiative to accelerate economic development and reduce poverty.	作为AFC的成员国之一，它将会从这一私营部门驱动的，旨在加速经济发展并减少贫困的战略中获益。


The AFC, with its project development subsidiary, Africa Infrastructure, and Chinese equity and technical partners, WEMPCO, is launching a power generation initiative in Bissau.	AFC正通过其项目开发子公司Africa Infrastructure 与中国的资产和技术伙伴WEMPCO合作，在比绍实施一个发电项目。


The investment will lead to a rapid deployment of emergency power using heavy fuel power generation, and will involve the rehabilitation and management of transmission and distribution.	它将会使使用重型燃料发电的应急电力系统迅速普及，还包括对输配电设施的改造和管理。


There is a huge window of opportunity for private sector-led development in Africa.	在非洲私营部门领导下的发展机制大有可为。


But taking advantage of this opportunity requires a new approach to private financing of Africa’s development, in which Africa is the lead investor in its own economic renaissance.	但要把握这一机遇就需要对非洲的发展实施一种新的私有化融资机制，而其中非洲本身就是自己经济复兴的领导性投资方。


Privatizing the Gulf	私有化波斯湾


JEDDAH – As the Arab world undergoes fundamental changes, its leaders must adapt fast or risk popular uprisings – a lesson that has not been lost on the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.	吉达—阿拉伯世界经历着快速的根本性变革，阿拉伯领导人必须迅速适应这一形式，否则就会面临群众起义的风险。 对于海湾合作委员会（Gulf Cooperation Council，GCC）国家——巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特和阿联酋——来说，可谓殷鉴未远。


With their neighbors embroiled in internal conflict or in the midst of difficult transitions, and with discontent rising at home, the Gulf states are eager to stem the tide of revolution.	它们的邻国中不乏深陷内部冲突或艰难转型者，国内不满情绪也在不断升级。 海湾国家急切地想平息革命浪潮。


Indeed, the GCC has offered generous aid, totaling roughly $160 billion so far, to countries swept by the Arab Spring.	事实上，GCC向被阿拉伯之春席卷的邻国提供了慷慨的援助，到目前为止总数已高达1600亿美元左右。


Furthermore, to cool domestic political tensions, some of the Gulf countries have announced additional spending packages that include significant wage hikes, substantial increases in public-sector jobs for their citizens, and higher unemployment benefits.	此外，为了平息国内政治紧张局面，一些海湾国家还宣布了额外支出计划，比如大幅提高工资水平、大幅增加公民公共部门就业岗位、提高失业保险等。


Simply put, the Gulf states are relying on their wealth to ward off revolution.	简单说，海湾国家正在用财富收买革命。


After all, the majority of their population has benefited immensely from decades of rapid, natural-resource-based economic growth.	毕竟，几十年来，自然资源带来的快速经济增长让海湾国家的大部分国民获得了无穷好处。


But the GCC economies are also rife with structural problems that short-term economic packages will not address – bloated public sectors, heavy dependence on imported labor, and endemic unemployment, especially among young people, who make up a disproportionately large share of the population.	但GCC国家也充满了结构性问题，这些问题靠短期经济政策是无法解决的——如臃肿的公共部门、对进口劳动力的严重依赖以及局部性高失业（特别是年轻人，海湾国家年轻人比例非常高）。


The region needs sustainable policies aimed at bringing about much-needed economic diversification.	海湾地区需要旨在带来急需的经济多样化的可持续政策。


Indeed, without profound structural change, the favorable standard of living that underpins the Gulf states’ political stability is likely to erode.	事实上，没有深度结构性改革，作为海湾国家政治稳定性根基之所在的高生活水平可能难以维持。


The public sector is by far the largest employer of GCC citizens: in Saudi Arabia, the government employs 80% of the indigenous workforce; in Kuwait, the figure is 93%.	目前，公共部门是GCC国家最大的雇主：在沙特，政府雇用了80%的国内劳动力； 在科威特，这一数字高达93%。


An estimated 45% of Saudi Arabia’s government budget is allocated to public-sector salaries.	据估算，沙特政府预算中有45%被用于发放公共部门薪金。


The GCC countries’ new spending packages are likely to perpetuate public-sector hypertrophy.	GCC国家的新支出计划可能会进一步加剧公共部门臃肿不堪的情况。


Unproductive measures, such as public-sector wage increases, will have the immediate effect of crowding out further the private sector.	非生产性手段（比如提高公共部门工资）立刻会产生进一步挤压私人部门的效应。


Next year, salaries for federal employees in the UAE will rise by 30-100%, while their Qatari counterparts’ wages will rise by 60-120%.	明年，阿联酋联邦雇员将获得30—100%的提薪，而卡塔尔将提高60—120%。


But it is not certain that the additional spending will trickle down to the rest of the economy.	但支出的增加是否会渗透到经济的其余部门远未可知。


In fact, because most consumer goods are imported, it is unlikely that domestic companies will benefit at all.	事实上，由于大部分消费品都需要进口，海湾国家本土企业根本不会获得任何好处。


Reducing public-sector dependence requires increasing citizens’ involvement in local businesses, so increasing the private sector’s role in generating employment is vital.	减轻对公共部门的依赖程度需要更多的公民从事本地商业，因此，提高私人部门在创造就业中的作用十分关键。


Yet very little attention has been paid to promoting entrepreneurship, despite its potential to channel the youthful dynamics unleashed by the Arab uprisings in a positive direction.	但促进企业家精神的措施却非常之少，尽管这是将阿拉伯之春所释放的年轻活力向积极方向引导的关键。


Wealthy locals, for example, could be given incentives to invest in start-ups, while the government could provide low-interest loans and defer repayment until a particular profit threshold is reached.	比如，可以给予本地富豪投资创业者的激励，同时政府可以提供低息贷款，并允许创业企业达到某个利润阈值后再开始还款。


But strong legal fundamentals are no less important for creating a business-friendly environment.	但完善的法制基础对于创造商业友好型环境也至关重要。


Ensuring that intellectual and other property rights are adequately protected for citizens and foreigners alike is essential, as is reducing corruption.	确保公民和外国人的知识产权和其他财产权利得到充分保护很重要，不亚于减少腐败。


Not all Gulf countries have been impermeable to change.	并非所有海湾国家都与变化绝缘。


In response to social-housing shortages – and rising tensions over increasingly conspicuous social inequality – Oman’s leaders pledged to build 2,500 housing units for low-income families, and to support technical training tailored to job creation.	为了应对社会住房短缺以及日渐明显的社会不平等所引起的紧张局势，阿曼领导人承诺为低收入家庭建造2500套住房，并支持与就业创造配套的技术培训。


Likewise, Bahrain signed a $550 million public-private partnership for housing, 75% of which will be allocated to construction of units for low-income people.	类似地，巴林出台了5. 5亿美元的公私合营住房建设项目，其中75%的住房将是分配给低收入群体的建筑单元。


Still, according to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index – which aims to measure various aspects of economic development in non-liberal countries, or countries in a democratic transition – the GCC states’ transformation indices range from “limited” to “very limited,” largely owing to corruption and a lack of transparency.	但是，根据贝塔斯曼转型指数（Bertelsmann Transformation Index，该指数旨在衡量非自由国家或处于民主转型过程中的国家各方面的经济发展情况），GCC国家的转型指数得分多为“有限”或“极其有限”，这主要是拜腐败和不透明所赐。


In some countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman, perceptions of corruption are linked to the absence of meritocracy.	在沙特和阿曼等国家，人们之所以感到腐败丛生，与精英教育的缺位有关。


Moreover, the overriding importance of personal networks helps to maintain – or even increases – socio-economic inequality and hinders inclusive growth, as do weak intellectual-property laws and cumbersome bureaucracies.	此外，人际关系网压倒一切的现状、知识产权法律不完善以及官僚机构的臃肿维持（甚至加剧）着社会经济不平等性，阻碍着包容性增长。


If Gulf leaders are serious about avoiding social unrest, they should take advantage of gains from today’s high oil prices to finance labor-market and intellectual-property reforms, thereby encouraging private-sector growth and providing greater opportunity for all.	如果还玩领导人真心想要避免社会动荡，那么他们应该好好利用如今的高油价，为劳动力市场和知识产权改革提供资金支持，从而增进私人部门增长，为所有人提供更大的机会。


International institutions could help by offering technical assistance.	国际机构也可以提供技术支持以助一臂之力。


For example, there could be scope for cooperation within the European Union-GCC Joint Action Program, which already includes a section on “Exchange of expertise and information…in economic integration.”	比如，欧盟-GCC联合行动计划内就存在合作空间，该计划已经包括“在经济一体化中……交换专家知识和信息”的内容。


New private-sector jobs could generate a wave of dynamism in the Gulf region, helping it to move away from overreliance on energy exports and forge a new path towards sustainable long-term growth.	新的私人部门就业岗位能够为海湾地区创造新的活力，有助于使该地区不再过度依赖能源出口、打造通往可持续长期增长的新道路。


A successful transition would give real opportunities to a generation of unemployed young people, thus enabling them to take responsibility for their futures – and the future of the region.	成功的转型将为一代失业青年提供真正的机会，从而让他们承担起自己——以及海湾地区——的未来。


Prizes, Not Patents	要奖励，不要专利


Part of modern medicine’s success is built on new drugs, in which pharmaceutical companies invest billions of dollars on research.	现代医学的成功部分是建立在新药之上的，制药公司投入几十亿美元来研发新药。


The companies can recover their expenses thanks to patents, which give them a temporary monopoly and thus allow them to charge prices well above the cost of producing the drugs.	这些公司可以通过专利来收回它们的开支，专利赋予它们一段时间的垄断权，从而使它们给药品开出远高出其生产成本的价格。


We cannot expect innovation without paying for it.	我们不指望谁会不计回报地去进行创新。


But are the incentives provided by the patent system appropriate, so that all this money is well spent and contributes to treatments for diseases of the greatest concern?	但是由专利体系所提供的激励是否恰当呢？ 所有的钱都使用和贡献在最紧要的疾病的治疗上了吗？


Sadly, the answer is a resounding “no.”	可悲的是，答案是一个响亮的“不”。


The fundamental problem with the patent system is simple: it is based on restricting the use of knowledge.	专利体系最根本的问题很简单，那就是它是建立在限制知识的使用上的。


Because there is no extra cost associated with an additional individual enjoying the benefits of any piece of knowledge, restricting knowledge is inefficient.	因为增加一个人享受任何一部分知识的利益并不会带来额外的成本，所以限制知识是没有效率的。


But the patent system not only restricts the use of knowledge; by granting (temporary) monopoly power, it often makes medications unaffordable for people who don’t have insurance.	但是专利体系不但限制知识的使用，它还授予（暂时性的）垄断权从而使没有保险的人经常无力购买药品。


In the Third World, this can be a matter of life and death for people who cannot afford new brand-name drugs but might be able to afford generics.	在第三世界，对于那些无力购买新的名牌药物但是可能有钱购买非专利药物的人来说这是事关生死的问题。


For example, generic drugs for first-line AIDS defenses have brought down the cost of treatment by almost 99% since 2000 alone, from $10,000 to $130.	比如说，用于第一线爱滋病防御的非专利药物单单从2000年以来就把治疗的费用降低了大约99%，从1万美元降到了130美元。


But, despite the high price they pay, developing countries get little in return.	但是，尽管支出了高昂的价格，发展中国家所得到的回报却非常小。


Drug companies spend far more money on advertising and marketing than they do on research, far more on research for lifestyle drugs (for conditions like impotence and hair loss) than for lifesaving drugs, and almost no money on diseases that afflict hundreds of millions of poor people, such as malaria.	制药公司把远高于它们花在研究上的钱花在了广告和产品推销上，它们花在研究迎合消费者生活方式上的药物（比如治疗阳萎和脱发的药物）钱要远高于花在研究挽救生命的药物上的钱，而它们几乎没有花钱去研究治疗像疟疾这种折磨着数以千万计的穷人的药物。


It is a matter of simple economics: companies direct their research where the money is, regardless of the relative value to society.	这是一个简单的经济学的问题。 公司会把它们的研究放在有钱的地方，而不会去管它对社会的相对价值。


The poor can’t pay for drugs, so there is little research on their diseases, no matter what the overall costs.	穷人买不起药，所以对他们的疾病的研究就很少，不管其总体的成本是多少。


A “me-too” drug, for example, which nets its manufacturer some portion of the income that otherwise accrues only to the company that dominates a niche, may be highly profitable, even if its value to society is quite limited.	比如，一种仿造药，可以使其生产者获得本来只会由独霸市场的公司获得的部分收益。 这样的药可以带来高额的利润，尽管其对社会的价值是非常有限的。


Similarly, companies raced to beat the human genome project in order to patent genes such as that associated with breast cancer.	同样地，制药公司极力赶在人类基因组工程前面提取出某些基因，以便为像与乳腺癌相关的基因注册专利。


The value of these efforts was minimal: the knowledge was produced just a little sooner than it would have been otherwise.	这些努力的价值是最小的，其所产生的知识只不过比本该有的稍早了一些而已。


But the cost to society was enormous: the high price that Myriad, the patent holder, places on genetic tests (between $3,000 and $4,000) may well mean that thousands of women who would otherwise have been tested, discovered that they were at risk, and taken appropriate remediation, will die instead.	但是其对于社会的代价却是巨大的。 专利拥有者Myriad为基因测试所开出的高昂价格，从3000到4000美元之间，可能意味着数以千计本该得到测试、处于危险时及时被发现并得到恰当治疗的妇女只能眼睁睁地死去。


There is an alternative way of financing and incentivizing research that, at least in some instances, could do a far better job than patents, both in directing innovation and ensuring that the benefits of that knowledge are enjoyed as widely as possible: a medical prize fund that would reward those who discover cures and vaccines.	我们可以为投资和激励研究找到一种替代方法，它至少在某些方面可以比专利要做得好得多，不管是引导创新还是确保知识的利益可以被尽可能多的人享受到。 这就是一个用来奖励发现治疗方法和疫苗的人的医疗奖励基金。


Since governments already pay the cost of much drug research directly or indirectly, through prescription benefits, they could finance the prize fund, which would award the biggest prizes for developers of treatments or preventions for costly diseases affecting hundreds of millions of people.	因为政府已经直接或间接地支付了很大一部分药物研究的开支，它们可以通过处方利润来融资建立奖励基金，给予开发出影响数以亿计人的代价高昂的疾病的治疗或预防方法的人最高的奖励。


Especially when it comes to diseases in developing countries, it would make sense for some of the prize money to come from foreign assistance budgets, as few contributions could do more to improve the quality of life, and even productivity, than attacking the debilitating diseases that are so prevalent in many developing countries.	尤其当针对的是发展中国家的疾病时，如果部分的奖金是来自外国援助预算的话会产生很大的作用，因为没有比打击在许多发展中国家非常盛行的使人虚弱的疾病更能提供他们生活的质量甚至是生产力的了。


A scientific panel could establish a set of priorities by assessing the number of people affected and the impact on mortality, morbidity, and productivity.	一个专门的科学小组可以通过评估受影响的人数以及对死亡率、发病率和生产力的影响来确定一组需要优先研究的疾病。


Once the discovery is made, it would be licensed.	一旦发现了治疗或预防方法，它就应该被授权去使用。


Of course, the patent system is itself a prize system, albeit a peculiar one: the prize is temporary monopoly power, implying high prices and restricted access to the benefits that can be derived from the new knowledge.	当然，专利体系本身就是一种奖励体系，不过是很特殊的一个。 那就是其奖励是一段时间的垄断权，从而给新知识所带来的利益赋予高价并且限制进入。


By contrast, the type of prize system I have in mind would rely on competitive markets to lower prices and make the fruits of the knowledge available as widely as possible.	与之相对比，我说设想的这种奖励体系将依靠竞争市场来压低价格，并且使知识的成果能被尽量多的人所获取。


With better-directed incentives (more research dollars spent on more important diseases, less money spent on wasteful and distorted marketing), we could have better health at lower cost.	通过更有针对性的激励机制，即把钱更多地花在更重要的疾病的研究上，而不是花在浪费的和扭曲的市场营销上，我们可以用更低的代价来获取更佳的健康。


That said, the prize fund would not replace patents.	这并不是说奖励基金就会取代专利。


It would be part of the portfolio of methods for encouraging and supporting research.	这只是激励和支持研究的种种手段的一部分。


A prize fund would work well in areas in which needs are well known – the case for many diseases afflicting the poor – allowing clear goals to be set in advance.	奖励基金将更多地应用在其需求被广泛所知，即影响穷人的许多疾病，同时可以提前设定清晰目标的领域。


For innovations that solve problems or meet needs that have not previously been widely recognized, the patent system would still play a role.	对于解决此前未被广泛所知的问题或满足其需求的创新，则依然还是应用专利体系。


The market economy and the profit motive have led to extremely high living standards in many places.	市场经济和利润驱动在许多地方带来了相当高的生活水准。


But the health care market is not an ordinary market.	但是医疗市场并不是一个普通的市场。


Most people do not pay for what they consume; they rely on others to judge what they should consume, and prices do not influence these judgments as they do with conventional commodities.	大多数人并不支付他们所消费的东西； 他们以来别人来判断消费什么，而其价格并不像是影响常规商品那样影响他们的判断。


The market is thus rife with distortions. It is accordingly not surprising that in the area of health, the patent system, with all of its distortions, has failed in so many ways.	因而，在医疗领域，专利体系因为其种种的扭曲而在如此多的地方造成了失败，这也就不足为奇了。


A medical prize fund would not provide a panacea, but it would be a step in the right direction, redirecting our scarce research resources toward more efficient uses and ensuring that the benefits of that research reach the many people who are currently denied them.	医学奖励基金并不能解决一切的问题，但是它是朝正确的方向迈出了一步，可以把我们稀缺的研究资源重新定位在更有效的使用上，并且确保研究的成果能够使许多目前被拒之门外的人受益。


The Coming Productivity Revolution	即将到来的生产力革命


NEW YORK – “Red warnings lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy,” British Prime Minister David Cameron declared after the G-20’s summit in November.	纽约——英国首相戴维·卡梅伦在十一月召开的G-20峰会后宣布，“全球经济仪表板再次亮起了红色警告灯。


He is right.	”他说得没错。


But the real worry is not the risk associated with near-term challenges, like Japan’s return to recession in 2014 or the eurozone’s enduring sluggishness; it is the gale-force headwinds that the entire world will face over the next half-century.	但真正令人忧心的并不是短期挑战带来的风险，比如2014年日本重新陷入衰退或者欧元区的长期低迷； 真正令人担忧的是整个世界将在后半世纪面临的台风级阻力。


Despite nerve-wracking ups and downs, the last 50 years delivered an unprecedented global growth dividend.	虽然经济起伏令人伤透脑筋，但过去50年为我们带来了前所未有的全球经济增长红利。


Measured according to GDP (admittedly a flawed metric), the world economy expanded sixfold.	按照GDP测算（虽然这是一个有缺陷的指标），全球经济大幅增长了六倍。


Income per capita almost tripled.	人均收入增长近两倍。


In the developing world, sustained wealth creation and public-health advances have increased average life expectancy by 20 years since the mid-1970s, and adult illiteracy has been nearly halved in the last 30 years.	在发展中世界，持续的财富创造和公共卫生领域的进步已经使平均寿命比1970年代中期提升了20岁 ，过去30年来成人文盲率已经减少了近半数。


Inequality among countries has decreased, with more than one billion people lifted out of extreme poverty in the last two decades alone.	国家间的不平等已经有所下降，近过去20年内就有超过10亿人摆脱了极端贫困。


But if we pursue business as usual, the odds of making similarly impressive progress over the next 50 years are not very promising.	但如果我们还一切照旧，今后50年恐怕不太可能取得同样令人印象深刻的进步。


Since 1964, two key forces have fueled exceptionally fast GDP growth: the expansion of the labor supply, driven by rapid increases in population, and steady productivity gains.	1964年来，两股重要力量致令GDP增长异常迅速：由人口增长驱动的劳动力供应加大，以及稳步的生产率提高。


According to a report by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the average annual GDP growth rate of 3.5% in the 19 member countries of the G-20 (not including the European Union) and Nigeria owes about 1.8 percentage points to labor and 1.7 points to productivity.	根据麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）即将发布的报告，G-20的19个成员国（不包括欧盟）和尼日利亚年均3. 5%的GDP增长率中劳动力和生产率的比例各占1.


But, as fertility declines and populations age, the labor engine’s contribution to growth will fall sharply, to little more than 0.3 percentage points of annual growth.	但由于生育率下降及人口老龄化，经济增长劳动力引擎的贡献率将大幅下降，对年增长的贡献率仅略高于0. 3%。


Even if productivity continues to rise at the same rate, global GDP growth could slow to just over 2% annually, on average – a 40% drop from the last 50 years.	即便生产率能保持同样的增长速度，全球GDP增长可能放缓至年均略超2个百分点——与过去50年相比下降40%。


The good news is that this trajectory can be raised.	好消息是上述曲线仍然有提升余地。


But to do so requires a shift in focus from reducing inequality to delivering growth that benefits the poor and middle class as well.	但这需要将重点从降低不平等转移到实现令穷人和中产阶级同时受益的经济增长。


The historian Ben Friedman has observed that the “central question” in US history is not “the poverty of the most disadvantaged” or “the success of the most privileged”; it is “the economic well-being of the broad majority” of the population.	历史学家本·弗里德曼曾指出美国历史的“核心问题”既不是“最弱势群体的贫困”也不是“最强势群体的成就”； 而是“最广大民众的经济福祉”。


The same is true on a global level, as billions of aspiring consumers rise up to join the middle class.	这一规律在全球范围内同样适用，因为数十亿满怀希望的消费者正在加入中产阶层。