A model curriculum need not be limited to teaching the Golden Rule or making optimistic appeals to universal religious axioms. It should also support courses that teach pupils that diversity is a strength and a public good for their societies.	示范课程不必局限于教授黄金法则或乐观看待普世宗教公理的影响力，还应当支持向学生讲授多样化力量对社会有利的课程。


That is what the Catalyst Foundation hopes to do.	这就是催化剂基金会希望实现的目标。


The proposal is to work with some half-dozen pilot schools, including a secondary school in the United Arab Emirates, high schools in the US and Europe, and a secondary school in Lebanon that is taking in Syrian refugee students.	具体方案是与六所试点学校合作，包括阿拉伯联合酋长国的一所中学、美国和欧洲的几所高中以及接收叙利亚难民学生的一所黎巴嫩初中。


Lebanon is a particularly important participant in this project.	黎巴嫩是这个项目中尤为重要的参与者。


Despite its long history of political, social, and religious divisions, all nine-year-old pupils are introduced to a school curriculum that emphasizes to all children – whether Shia, Sunni, or Christian – the worth and dignity of all faiths and the common ground between them.	尽管有着长期的政治社会和宗教分裂史，所有九岁的学生都在学习一门学校课程，该课程向什叶、逊尼或基督教派的所有孩子强调所有信仰的尊严和价值以及它们之间的共同之处。


The Lebanese model is a good starting point for developing a framework that can be used worldwide.	以黎巴嫩模式为良好起点可以在全球范围内建立有效的架构。


The Catalyst Foundation’s curriculum is likely to include universal themes to prompt youths from very different national, religious, and cultural backgrounds to interact with one another, online or in person, by sharing their own insights and experiences.	催化剂基金会的课程很可能包含普世主题，促使来自不同国家宗教和文化背景的青年通过网络或面对面相互接触分享他们的经历和看法。


The goal is to foster cultural and religious understanding and dialogue among young people at a critical stage of their education, with the hope that they will grow up to become their countries’ and communities’ leaders.	这样做的目标是在教育的关键阶段促进青年人对文化和宗教的理解和对话，希望他们长大以后能够成为国家和社会的领袖。


Indeed, reformers have many opportunities to create new virtuous cycles across the Middle East’s education sectors, and they should take a lesson from Sir Ronald Cohen’s pioneering work in social-impact investing, and social enterprise as a whole.	事实上，改革者有诸多机会在中东教育界创造新的良性循环，他们应当学习罗纳德·科恩爵士在社会影响投资和整体社会企业领域的开创性工作。


Education-sector social entrepreneurs now have more financing tools at their disposal than ever before – from venture capital to targeted-investment funds and other new asset classes – and they can play an important role in bringing the Middle East’s classrooms into the twenty-first century.	教育部门的社会企业家现在拥有比以往更多的融资工具——从风险资本到目标投资基金和其他新型的资产类别。 他们可以在引领中东教育走入21世纪的过程中发挥重要的作用。


Too many past ideas that have emerged from the nonprofit sector have stalled, owing to a lack of finance.	因为缺乏资金，曾经有太多非营利部门有价值的想法无法向前推进。


The Catalyst Foundation aims to provide seed capital for education start-ups and to help them scale up successful programs.	催化剂基金会旨在为教育初创企业提供种子资本，并帮助他们做大成功的计划。


For anyone who cares about education in the Middle East, our task is clear: to furnish millions of poor and vulnerable young people with the support they need to transform and improve their lives through learning.	对关注中东教育的人来说，我们的任务非常明确：为成百上千万贫困和弱势青年提供他们所需的帮助，通过学习来改造和改善他们的生活。


As the Catalyst Foundation intends to show, a little social enterprise can go a long way.	催化剂基金会希望向世人表明，哪怕一点点社会进取心也可以取得巨大的成果。


The Rise and Fall of Middle Eastern Health Systems	中东医疗卫生体系的兴衰沉浮


SEATTLE – Much of the progress in the Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa in recent decades appears to have been reversed by the political unrest and civil wars afflicting the region.	西雅图——困扰地区的政治动乱和内战似乎已经逆转了中东和北非阿拉伯国家数十年来取得的大部分进展。


This reversal is especially visible in the health systems of Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen, which previously had been steadily improving.	特别是在此前一直呈稳步改善态势的埃及、约旦、利比亚、叙利亚、突尼斯和也门的医疗卫生体系，这样的逆转尤其明显。


Before 2010, these countries were experiencing increased life expectancy as well as reduced infectious disease burdens and infant and maternal mortality.	2010年前，这些国家预期寿命延长、传染病负担降低，婴儿及孕产妇死亡率改善。


Today, however, disruptions to their health systems have compounded the trauma and misery that have arisen from the region’s many conflicts.	但今天，诸多地区冲突造成的创伤和痛苦已经加剧了这些国家医疗卫生系统所受的破坏。


This is clear from a recent study that I co-authored for The Lancet, which examined data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to determine the effects of health-system deterioration in Eastern Mediterranean countries.	这一点在我与人合作为《柳叶刀》杂志撰写的一份近期研究报告中显而易见，这份研究报告为确定地中海东部国家医疗卫生体系恶化的影响而认真研究了2013年全球疾病负担研究所记录的数据。


We found that projected life expectancy has declined across the board since 2010.	我们发现2010年后预期寿命已经出现了整体性的下降。


For example, if the 1990-2008 rate of increase for life expectancy in Syria had continued apace, it would have been five years higher for women and six years higher for men than it is now.	比方说，如果1990到2008年叙利亚预期寿命延长的速度得以持续，那么女性和男性寿命会比现在分别高出5年和6年。


In Libya, life expectancy declined by six years for women and nine years for men.	在利比亚，女性的预期寿命缩短6年而男性则缩短9年。


And in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen, it declined by .25 years between 2010 and 2013.	而在埃及、突尼斯和也门，预期寿命在2010到2013年间缩短了0. 25年。


The larger drop in life expectancy in Syria and Libya is to be expected, given the civil wars in those countries.	鉴于叙利亚和利比亚等国爆发内战，预期寿命的大幅下降并不令人感到意外。


The United Nations Special Envoy in Syria estimates that 400,000 people have died in that country in the last five years as a result of the violence.	联合国驻叙利亚特使估计过去5年该国死于暴力的民众高达400,000 。


Moreover, the turmoil has had less obvious, but equally alarming, downstream effects.	不仅如此，国内混乱所产生的下游影响虽然不那么显著，但却同样惊人。


For example, after declining at an average annual rate of 5.6% between 1990 and 2010, Syria’s infant mortality rate has risen by 9.3% in recent years.	比方说，在1990到2010年间年均降低5. 6%之后，叙利亚的婴儿死亡率近年来已经增长了9.


In war-torn countries, the destruction of infrastructure is generally indiscriminate.	在饱受战争蹂躏的国家，基础设施往往会遭受不分青红皂白的破坏。


Despite international resolutions prohibiting attacks on health-care facilities, such attacks are a regular occurrence.	尽管国际决议禁止对医疗卫生设施发动袭击，但这样的袭击却依旧屡见不鲜。


Moreover, amid war and severe social unrest, medical and mental-health professionals often flee to safer environments, depriving those left behind – regardless of their status or income – of basic treatment for everything from physical injuries to drug and alcohol abuse.	不仅如此，在战争和严重社会动荡的情况下，医疗和精神卫生专业人士往往会逃往更加安全的环境，从而剥夺了留守群众——无论他们拥有什么样的地位和收入——从身体伤害到药物酒精滥用在内的一切基本治疗权。


In fact, conflicts in the region are especially hazardous for people suffering from mental illness and substance abuse.	事实上，地区冲突对患有精神病和药物滥用的人来讲尤其危险。


The rate of total disease burden for psychological and drug-use disorders, measured in life years, increased from 4% in 1990 to more than 7% in 2013, with some countries seeing more dramatic increases than others.	依据生存年限计算的心理和药物滥用障碍总疾病负担率从1990年的4%增长到2013年的7%以上，其中某些国家出现了更加戏剧性的增长。


With the unrest yet to come to an end, the impact will be even higher in 2016.	随着动荡的持续进行，2016年将会产生更加剧烈的影响。


Negative health trends are apparent even in countries that have been experiencing economic growth.	即使在那些实现经济增长的国家也无法掩盖健康趋势的恶化。


Both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are experiencing increased drug and alcohol use, suggesting that the stress of mere proximity to violence elsewhere, combined with increasing openness and massive growth in illicit drug production in conflict zones such as Afghanistan, could push people toward substance abuse as a coping mechanism.	卡塔尔和阿拉伯联合酋长国药物和酒精滥用都有所���升，表明仅仅是接近暴力带来的压力，加之阿富汗等地开放度增加和冲突地区非法毒品生产的巨大增长也可能会促使人们将药物滥用作为一种应对机制。


Areas neighboring these zones are also increasingly burdened by the largest refugee crisis in 70 years.	这些地区的临近地区越来越不堪承受70年来最大规模的难民危机的负担。


The flood of people into camps in Lebanon and Jordan has overwhelmed sanitation measures, leading to outbreaks of infectious diseases and resurgence in some areas of diseases that had been nearly eradicated, such as polio among Syrian refugees in Iraq.	涌入营地的黎巴嫩和约旦难民潮已经压垮了营地的卫生设施，从而导致在伊拉克的叙利亚难民小儿麻痹传染病暴发和某些地区已接近根除的疾病重新抬头。


Most countries absorbing refugees are simply not equipped to deal with such a massive influx of people who need health and social services.	多数吸纳难民的国家根本没有足够的设施来面对需要医疗和社会服务的如此大规模的难民涌入。


The rapid deterioration of health-care systems in the Middle East and North Africa in the last half-decade is alarming.	过去5年来中东和北非地区医疗健康体系的快速恶化令人震惊。


But the progress many countries in the region made in prior decades provides grounds for hope that it can be reversed.	但很多地区国家之前几十年取得的进步让人们有理由希望这种恶化的趋势能够得到逆转。


Larger investments in education, diagnosis, and treatment, for example, would help to reduce the stigma of mental illness that persists in many Arab countries.	比方说，对教育、诊断和治疗领域的大规模投资将有助于减少很多阿拉伯国家依然存在的因患有精神疾病所带来的耻辱感。


But a resumption of progress in the region is impossible without political solutions that reduce violence and social unrest.	但如果没有减少暴力和社会动荡的政治解决方案，该地区就不可能恢复曾经有过的进展。


As we conclude in our study, “a healthy Eastern Mediterranean Region is a politically stable Eastern Mediterranean Region from which the whole world will benefit.”	正如我们在研究中所总结的那样，“健康的地中海东部地区需要政治稳定，而那里的政治稳定能够为全世界带来好处。 ”


Stabilizing a country riven by conflict is a prerequisite for improving its health-care system.	改善医疗健康体系是稳定冲突国家的前提条件。


Once such stability is achieved, regional and local efforts should be accelerated to improve disease prevention and health-care infrastructure, and to put the region back on a path toward providing better, healthier lives for its people.	一旦稳定成为现实，就应当加速推进地区及国内改善疾病预防和医疗保健基础设施的工作，我们的目的是让这些国家回到正轨，为国内民众提供更好、更健康的生活。


Middle East Integration	中东整合


The attempts now being made to revive the “road map” to a final settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the creation of a Palestinian state are at only a preliminary stage.	当前，为重新恢复“路线图” 以最终解决巴以冲突以及巴勒斯坦建国所作的努力 还仅仅停留在初级阶段。


The recent international conference in London, aimed at supporting reforms in the Palestinian Authority and shoring up support for renewed negotiations with Israel, is one of those preliminary efforts.	最近在伦敦举行的以支持巴勒斯坦政权改革以及与以色列恢复谈判为目的的国际会议，就是初级阶段的努力之一。


I suggest, however, that it is not mediation that is needed: what the Palestinians need now are partners.	尽管那并非必需的调解之道，我还是建议：巴勒斯坦目前需要的是合作伙伴。


In their conflict with Israel, their natural and historical partner has always been Jordan.	在与以色列的冲突中，约旦一直是他们的历史伙伴。


That partnership was never broken.	这种合作关系从未有过破裂。


Articles 3 and 8 of Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel refer explicitly to the refugee problem as one of the major issues still to be resolved, as well as citing the unresolved status of trans-border arrangements and of Jerusalem.	约旦与以色列签署的和平条约的第三和第八条款明确将难民问题作为一个主要的亟需解决的问题，同时还引证了越国界管理和耶路撒冷未解决的状况。


Jordan is not outside the peace process, but an essential part of it.	在和平进程中，约旦并非置身事外，而是其中必不可少的一部分。


The original road map sketched out at the Madrid Conference in 1991 envisaged two stages: the final settlement of disputes between the Palestinians and Israel, and the permanent settlement of regional conflicts.	1994年马德里会议拟定的路线图草图设想了中东和平的两个阶段：最终解决巴以争端，以及实现地区永久性和平。


Jordan’s participation in both stages is crucial.	约旦在这两个阶段中的参与都显得至关重要。


Indeed, the interests of the inhabitants of the three areas – Palestine, Jordan, and Israel – are so intertwined that their representatives will have no choice but to come to terms with one another if negotiations are to succeed.	事实上，巴勒斯坦、约旦和以色列这三个地区的居民的利益是如此紧密相连，以至于如若希望谈判成功的话，他们的代表除了彼此达成协议别无他法。


For example, the refugee problem cannot be separated from wider problems concerning the integration of all inhabitants of Palestine, Jordan, and Israel – where the refugees are most numerous – into civil societies where they may enjoy equal legal status and equal access to economic and cultural opportunities.	例如，难民问题不能脱离更广泛的一系列涉及到难民数量最多的巴勒斯坦、约旦和以色列居民的整合问题， 将他们划入可能使其享受到法律地位以及平等拥有经济和文化机会的公民社会。


Such integration cannot be achieved on a unilateral basis but only by programs adopted by the host and donor countries in co-operation with each other; nor can it be achieved in conditions where there is complete political and administrative separation between the populations which places them under exclusive controls and fails to acknowledge the human needs of community and conviviality.	只有通过当事国和捐赠国共同合作采用一项计划，否则这种整合无法在单边基础上达成，也不能在民族间实施政治和行政完全分离的条件下完成，这种分离没有意识到人类对于群体和祥和的需求，置这些民族于排外控制下。


The economic and social development of the three areas demands an integrated approach to the exploitation of energy and other natural resources, particularly water.	此三地区的经济和社会发展需要一个综合三地力量的途径来开发能源和其他自然资源，尤其是水资源。


Without agreements on the conditions of such exploitation there will remain imbalances of living conditions and the persistence of rival claims with their potential for future conflicts.	如果不能达成这样的协议，那么该地区不平衡的生活水平将持续恶化，继而，引发竞争对手争相争夺主权与潜在的未来冲突。


A recognized community of water and energy interests and programs for their joint exploitation, for example in the rift valley, may lead, as was the motivation for the first stage of European integration, to a wider integration on a wider scale in the region.	一个以联合开采为目的、并获得认可的水及能源利益和项目共同体，诸如在裂谷，也许能像欧洲整合第一阶段的动力一样，引导该地区更大范围内的整合。


The status of Jerusalem is still an unresolved question on both the local and international scenes.	无论是从当地还是从国际社会角度来看，耶路撒冷的状态仍是一个悬而未决的问题。


That question was specifically listed in the Jordanian-Israel Peace Treaty.	约旦-以色列和平条约中特地列进了这个问题。


The recognition by the three parties of the primacy of the moral and spiritual over the political importance of the city could lead to arrangements on the ground which satisfy the legitimate claims of the three Abrahamic faiths, and subsume the eventual political status of the city to this moral authority.	三党承认，该城的道德和精神意义胜于政治重要性，这点将会导致建立在满足亚伯拉罕三大信仰的合法主张、并能将该城的最终政治状态归入到这一道德权威基础上的管理方案。


The alternative to an accepted resolution of their problems by the three parties is the permanent fragmentation of the Holy Land, which can only lead to more confrontation and violent conflicts.	还有一种对三党来说可以接受的解决方案，就是接受这块圣地上的无休止的分裂状态，但这只会导致更多的冲突和危险的斗争。


The shadow of such fragmentation, with its unfathomable perils, now hangs over Iraq.	伴随着它难以预见的危险，这种分裂的阴影现在正威胁着伊拉克。


In this troubled part of the world, the choice is, quite simply, one between regionalism and barbarism.	在这块世界纷争之地，选择其实很简单，要么地方主义，要么野蛮主义。


A Middle East Health-Care Revolution	中东医疗革命


CAIRO – On a recent visit to Jordan and Egypt, as part of a trade mission led by the United States Department of Commerce, I was struck by the potential for the surrounding region to become a major hub for cutting-edge medicine.	开罗—最近，我作为美国商务部贸易代表团的一员访问了约旦和埃及，我震惊地发现，这一周边区域具有成为尖端医学主要枢纽的潜力。


With the right policy mix and enough political will, the Middle East could become an important part of the world for health-care research.	如果有正确的政策组合和足够的政治意愿，中东能够成为世界医疗研究的重要部分。


In particular, it has a critical role to play regarding pharmaceutical clinical trials designed to investigate the influence of patients’ region of ancestry on the safety, efficacy, and effectiveness of treatments.	特别是，它在为调查患者祖籍对治疗的安全性、效力和效果的药物临床试验方面起着关键性作用。


As our understanding of genetics expands, it is becoming clear that our ancestral origins play a key role in determining the efficacy of certain medicines.	随着我们对遗传学认识的扩展，显然我们的祖籍在决定某些药物的效力方面起着关键作用。


For example, studies have shown that patients of European ancestry respond better to beta blockers and ACE inhibitors than those of African descent.	比如，研究表明，祖籍欧洲的患者对乙型阻断剂和ACE抑制剂的反应要好于非洲人的后代。


And continental origins are often considered when selecting optimal antihypertensive and cardiovascular drug therapy.	祖先来自大陆的患者常常作为最优降压和心血管药物疗法遴选的考虑对象。


Another example is warfarin, an anticoagulant.	另一个例子是抗凝血药物华法林。


Research has found that patients of African descent require higher doses than those of European origins; patients with Asian ancestry require lower doses.	研究发现，非洲裔患者需要比祖籍欧洲的患者更大的剂量； 有亚洲血统的患者则需要更少的剂量。


Studies of tacrolimus, a drug used to prevent organ rejection in transplant patients, indicate that African-American patients require higher doses than their white peers.	关于他克莫司的研究表明非洲裔美国患者需要的剂量要比白种美国人更大。 他克莫司是一种用于抗器官移植排斥的药物。


Genetic research has also expanded our understanding of diseases.	遗传学研究还扩展了我们对疾病的认识。


For example, research by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) found that epidermolysis bullosa, a debilitating inherited skin disorder, has a different genetic signature in patients from the Middle East than in those from other parts of the world.	比如，美国国际开发局（US Agency for International Development，USAID）的研究发现，大疱性表皮松解症（一种遗传性皮肤病）在来自中东的患者体内的基因签名不同于世界其他地区的患者。


As our understanding of diseases grows, more research is needed to determine the effectiveness of sophisticated new medicines in specific patient populations around the world.	随着我们队这些病症的认识的增长，需要更多的研究确定先进的新药在全世界各具体患者群体中的效果。


Such investigations are already underway in some regions.	这些研究在一些地区已经展开。


In Asia, the Human Genome Organization established the Pan-Asian Population Genomics Initiative to study genetic diversity and evaluate variations in drug response in the region.	在亚洲，人类基因组组织（Human Genome Organization）启动了泛亚洲人口基因组计划以研究遗传多样性和评估地区内药物反应的差异。


In Mexico, the Institute for Genomic Medicine is genotyping the country’s entire population.	在墨西哥，基因组医学研究所（Institute for Genomic Medicine）正在对全国人口进行基因测定。


Establishing a similar effort in the Middle East will require collaboration among pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, non-profit organizations, governments, and health-care providers.	在中东采取同样的措施需要制药公司、学术机构、非营利组织、政府和医疗提供商的共同努力。


Organizations like USAID and the US Naval Medical Research Center, which are already conducting clinical research in the region, could become valuable partners in coordinating and managing trials.	USAID和美国海军医学研究中心（US Naval Medical Research Center，目前该机构已经在中东地区展开临床研究）可以成为协调和管理试验的极有价值的合作伙伴。


The first step that the Middle East can take is to align regulations across the region, with countries agreeing on the parameters for testing drugs’ safety and efficacy in the local population.	中东可以采取的第一步是理顺地区监管措施，各国在测试药物对本地人口的安全性和效力的参数方面需要取得一致。


Clinical activity is increasing across the Middle East, and the health-care ecosystem needed to support research is growing in size and sophistication.	临床活动正在整个中东地区呈现增加趋势，支持研究所需要的医疗生态系统的规模和质量也在上��。


And yet, when it comes to new treatments, regulatory bodies in the region generally follow decisions made by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA), without extensively studying a drug’s safety and efficacy on local patients.	但是，对于新疗法，中东地区监管机构一般都遵循美国食品和药品管理局（FDA）和欧洲药品管理局（EMA）的决定，而不会充分研究药物对本地患者的安全性和效力。


Approvals must take place on a national level, but regional leadership will be necessary.	批准是国家层面的问题，但地区领导也是必不可少的。


Jordan, for example, has a sophisticated health-care system and a thriving medical tourism sector.	比如，约旦拥有成熟的医疗体系和繁荣的医疗旅游业。


It is also the site of an increasing number of clinical trials.	这里也是越来越多的临床试验所在地。


As such, it is well placed to set the standard for research required to show a drug’s safety and efficacy in patients of Middle Eastern ancestry.	因此，约旦很适合为证明药物针对祖籍中东患者的安全性和效力的研究制定标准。


It is important to move quickly.	迅速行动起来很重要。


The incidence of chronic diseases is increasing rapidly across the Middle East.	放眼中东，慢性病发病率正在增加。


According to the International Diabetes Federation, rates of diabetes in the Middle East and North Africa will rise 96.2% by 2035, with the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Qatar predicted to have the highest growth rates.	据国际糖尿病联合会（International Diabetes Federation）的数据，到2035年，中东和北非糖尿病率将增加96. 2%，其中阿联酋、阿曼和卡塔尔的增长率最高。


Likewise, the World Health Organization estimates that more than a quarter of adults in Egypt have hypertension, while cardiovascular diseases account for 35% of all deaths in Jordan.	类似地，世界卫生组织估计，超过四分之一的埃及成年人有高血压，而在约旦，心血管疾病死亡占比高达35%。


Developing new, more effective treatments will be crucial to addressing these challenges before health-care costs spiral out of control.	开发新的更有效的疗法是抢在医疗成本失控之前解决这些挑战的关键。


The Middle East is best known for its ancient historical sites, political instability, and abundant natural resources.	中东因其历史古迹、政治动荡和丰富的自然资源而闻名。


But, by developing its ability to make medical advances, the region could become a world leader in deepening our understanding of the role of genetics in the safety and efficacy of medical treatments.	但是，通过开发其医学进步的能力，该地区能够成为深化我们对遗传学在医疗安全性和效力中的作用的认识的领导者。


The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk	中东崩溃和全球风险


NEW YORK – Among today’s geopolitical risks, none is greater than the long arc of instability stretching from the Maghreb to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.	纽约—在当今地缘政治风险中，没有比从马格里布一直延伸到阿富汗-巴基斯坦边境的漫长动荡地带更大的了。


With the Arab Spring an increasingly distant memory, the instability along this arc is deepening.	阿拉伯之春的记忆已经渐行渐远，但这一地带的动荡正在加深。


Indeed, of the three initial Arab Spring countries, Libya has become a failed state, Egypt has returned to authoritarian rule, and Tunisia is being economically and politically destabilized by terrorist attacks.	事实上，在率先爆发阿拉伯之春的三个国家中，利比亚已成为失败之国，埃及恢复了极权统治，而突尼斯正在因为恐怖袭击而出现经济和政治动荡。


The violence and instability of North Africa is now spreading into Sub-Saharan Africa, with the Sahel – one of the world’s poorest and most environmentally damaged regions – now gripped by jihadism, which is also seeping into the Horn of Africa to its east.	北非的暴力与动荡目前正在蔓延到撒哈拉以南非洲，撒舍尔——全世界最贫穷、环境破坏最严重的地区之一——已落入了圣战者的控制之中，此外他们还在向非洲之角渗透。


And, as in Libya, civil wars are raging in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, all of which increasingly look like failed states.	而与利比亚一样，伊拉克、叙利亚、也门和索马里内战肆虐，朝着失败之国越陷越深。


The region’s turmoil (which the United States and its allies, in their pursuit of regime change in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Egypt and elsewhere, helped to fuel) is also undermining previously secure states.	该地区的动荡（美国及其盟友在寻求推翻伊拉克、利比亚、叙利亚、埃及和其他政权时也起到了推波助澜的作用）还在破坏一些此前安全的国家。


The influx of refugees from Syria and Iraq is destabilizing Jordan, Lebanon, and now even Turkey, which is becoming increasingly authoritarian under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.	来自叙利亚和伊拉克的难民的涌入正在动摇约旦、黎巴嫩甚至土耳其。 在总统埃尔多安统治下，土耳其正变得日益极权。


Meanwhile, with the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians unresolved, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon represent a chronic threat of violent clashes with Israel.	与此同时，以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突仍未解决，加沙的哈马斯和黎巴嫩的真主党都是与以色列暴力对抗的长期威胁。


In this fluid regional environment, a great proxy struggle for regional dominance between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran is playing out violently in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and Lebanon.	在这一瞬息万变的地区环境中，逊尼派的沙特阿拉伯和什叶派的伊朗之间为争夺地区主宰权而进行的激烈的代理斗争正在伊拉克、叙利亚、也门、巴林和黎巴嫩暴力上演。


And while the recent nuclear deal with Iran may reduce the proliferation risk, the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran will provide its leaders with more financial resources to support their Shia proxies.	最近与伊朗达成的核协议也许能够减少核扩散风险，但取消对伊朗制裁将让伊朗领导人获得更多金融资源支持他们的什叶派代理人。


Further east, Afghanistan (where the resurgent Taliban could return to power) and Pakistan (where domestic Islamists pose a continued security threat) risk becoming semi-failed states.	在更东面的地方，阿富汗（复兴的塔利班可能重新掌权）和巴基斯坦（国内伊斯兰教徒一直是个安全隐患）有可能沦为半失败之国。


And yet, remarkably, even as most of the region began to burn, oil prices collapsed.	但是，令人瞩目的是，尽管该地区大部眼看着被战火吞噬，但石油价格仍然暴跌。


In the past, geopolitical instability in the region triggered three global recessions.	在过去，该地区地缘政治动荡曾引发过三次全球衰退。


The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab states caused an oil embargo that tripled prices and led to the stagflation (high unemployment plus inflation) of 1974-1975.	1973年以色列和阿拉伯国家之间的赎罪日战争导致了石油禁运，石油价格暴涨两倍，引发1974—1975年的滞涨（高失业和通货膨胀）。


The Iranian revolution of 1979 led to another embargo and price shock that triggered the global stagflation of 1980-1982.	1979年伊朗革命导致新一轮禁运和油价暴涨，引发1980—1982年全球滞涨。


And the Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990 led to another spike in oil prices that triggered the US and global recession of 1990-1991.	而1990年伊拉克入侵科威特导致油价再次飙升，引发1990—1991年的美国衰退。


This time around, instability in the Middle East is far more severe and widespread.	这一回，中东的动荡远比此前几次更严重、范围更广。


But there appears to be no “fear premium” on oil prices; on the contrary, oil prices have declined sharply since 2014.	但石油价格并未出现“恐慌溢价”； 相反，2014年以来油价大幅下跌。


Perhaps the most important reason is that, unlike in the past, the turmoil in the Middle East has not caused a supply shock.	也许最重要的原因是，和过去不同，今天中东的动荡没有导致供给冲击。


Even in the parts of Iraq now controlled by the Islamic State, oil production continues, with output smuggled and sold in foreign markets.	即使在现在被伊斯兰国控制的伊拉克部分地区，石油生产也在继续进行，产出经走私在外国市场出售。


And the prospect that sanctions on Iran’s oil exports will be phased out implies significant inflows of foreign direct investment aimed at increasing production and export capacity.	而伊朗石油出口制裁将被取消的预期意味着大量外国直接投资将会涌入伊朗，增加产出和出口能力。


Indeed, there is a global glut of oil.	事实上，现在存在着全球石油过剩。


In North America, the shale-energy revolution in the US, Canada’s oil sands, and the prospect of more onshore and offshore oil production in Mexico (now that its energy sector is open to private and foreign investment) have made the continent less dependent on Middle East supplies.	在北美，美国页岩能源革命、加拿大油砂以及墨西哥在岸和离岸石油增产的前景（因��其能源部门向私人和外国投资开放了）让北美洲不再那么依赖中东的供给。


Moreover, South America holds vast hydrocarbon reserves, from Colombia all the way to Argentina, as does East Africa, from Kenya all the way to Mozambique.	此外，从哥伦比亚到阿根廷，南美也拥有巨大的碳氢化合物储量，从肯尼亚到莫桑比克的东非也是如此。


With the US on the way to achieving energy independence, there is a risk that America and its Western allies will consider the Middle East less strategically important.	美国正在迈向能源独立，有一种可能是美国及其西方盟友不再认为中东具有如此大的战略重要性。


That belief is wishful thinking: a burning Middle East can destabilize the world in many ways.	这种想法纯属臆断：战火纷飞的中东可能以多种方式动摇世界。


First, some of these conflicts may yet lead to an actual supply disruption, as in 1973, 1979, and 1990.	首先，这些冲突中有一些可能会引起实际供给干扰，如1973年、1979年和1990年那样。


Second, civil wars that turn millions of people into refugees will destabilize Europe economically and socially, which is bound to hit the global economy hard.	其次，让数百万人沦为难民的内战将动摇欧洲经济和社会，而这必然会严重冲击全球经济。


And the economies and societies of frontline states like Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, already under severe stress from absorbing millions of such refugees, face even greater risks.	黎巴嫩、约旦和土耳其等前沿国家已经不堪吸收数百万难民的重负，其经济和社会面临着更大的风险。


Third, prolonged misery and hopelessness for millions of Arab young people will create a new generation of desperate jihadists who blame the West for their despair.	第三，数百万阿拉伯年轻人长期生活在悲惨和无望中，这将制造新一代绝望的圣战者，他们指责西方必须为他们的绝望负责。


Some will undoubtedly find their way to Europe and the US and stage terrorist attacks.	毫无疑问，一些人将设法来到欧洲和美国，从事恐怖袭击。


So, if the West ignores the Middle East or addresses the region’s problems only through military means (the US has spent $2 trillion in its Afghan and Iraqi wars, only to create more instability), rather than relying on diplomacy and financial resources to support growth and job creation, the region’s instability will only worsen.	因此，如果西方忽视中东，或只是通过军事手段解决中东问题（美国在阿富汗和伊拉克战争中已经投入了2万亿美元，结果是越来越动荡），而不是依赖外交和金融资源支持增长和就业创造，中东的动荡只会愈加深化。


Such a choice would haunt the US and Europe – and thus the global economy – for decades to come.	这一选择的后果将在未来几十年一直萦绕美国和欧洲——因此也将萦绕全球经济。


Middle East Peace by Any Means Available	各出奇招，实现中东和平


RAMALLAH – Something is happening with the Middle East conflict, but it is hard to say what. A breakthrough appears to be at hand, though all the parties still seem to be clinging to their traditional positions.	发自拉马拉——某种难以言表的变化正在中东冲突中涌动，虽然冲突各方似乎依然坚守着自己的传统立场，但一场突破性的进展却显然近在咫尺。


The Arab League gave the go-ahead to indirect Palestinian-Israeli talks, and the various Palestinian leadership forums have approved the resumption of talks.	阿拉伯联盟为巴勒斯坦和以色列之间的间接对话开了绿灯，而在不同场合召开的几场巴勒斯坦领导人会议也批准重开会谈。


Even the usually boisterous Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat has toned down his rhetoric, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gave an optimistic interview to Israel TV.	平常惯于兴风作浪的巴勒斯坦首席谈判代表萨厄布·伊莱凯特变得异常低调，连巴勒斯坦总统马哈茂德·阿巴斯都以乐观的态度接受了以色列电视台的采访。


But Israel has not publicly agreed to the American and Palestinian request to rescind the settlement construction in Jerusalem approved during US Vice President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Israel.	但以色列方面却仍未公开答应美国和巴勒斯坦关于停止在耶路撒冷兴建犹太人定居点的要求，而此项要求是在美国副总统乔·拜登最近的以色列之行中敲定的。


On the contrary, Israeli officials, denying the Palestinians’ assertion that a secret US-Israel agreement exists, clearly intend to continue building Jewish homes in occupied East Jerusalem.	恰恰相反，以色列官员不但否认有巴勒斯坦所声称的所谓美国-以色列秘密协议存在，还明显试图继续推进东耶路撒冷地区犹太人定居点的兴建。


So what is going on?	这其中究竟有何猫腻呢？


For starters, we are again moving into what Henry Kissinger called the realm of “constructive ambiguity.”	对于初次接触以巴冲突的人来说，我们实际上又再次进入了前美国国务卿亨利·基辛格所谓的“建设性分歧”的范畴中。


Palestinians have been assured via a message from President Barack Obama, delivered by his special envoy George Mitchell, that the Israelis will not carry out any “provocations” during the coming four months of indirect negotiations.	巴勒斯坦人已经从美国总统奥巴马的特使乔治·米切尔处得到了承诺，保证以色列人不会在未来4个月的间接谈判中作出任何“挑衅行动”。


Pressed to clarify, the Palestinians admitted that there is no written promise to this effect.	但在外界要求明确这一事件的压力之下，巴勒斯坦人也承认并未得到任何关于这项措施的书面承诺。


But, on a recent trip to Israel, White House adviser Dan Shapiro is said to have been reassured that the Israelis will not embarrass their American friends.	然而据说在白宫顾问丹·沙皮洛最近的访以之行中，以色列人再次向他保证不会做出任何令美国朋友尴尬的举动。


In exchange, Shapiro handed the ultra-orthodox leader of Israel’s Shas party an invitation to the White House. Mitchell gave a similar invitation to Abbas.	作为回报，沙皮洛则向以色列神谕党的极端犹太正统派领导人递交了一份前往白宫的邀请函，而阿巴斯也从米切尔手里得到了类似的一份信函。


Palestinians understand that without pressure little change will take place. They have also clearly understood the folly of violent resistance, and have made a dramatic shift to nonviolent action – with the acceptance (and possibly encouragement) of the international community – in order to maintain pressure on the occupiers.	巴勒斯坦人知道如果不施加压力的话变革只会微乎其微，同时也明确认识到暴力反抗只是匹夫之勇，为了对犹太占领者的持续施加压力，巴勒斯坦人在国际社会的许可（甚至有可能是鼓励）之下实现了向非暴力行为的戏剧性转变。


The PLO’s main faction, Fatah, made this shift at their sixth congress, held in Bethlehem last winter after a 20-year hiatus.	巴勒斯坦解放组织的主要派别法塔赫在其中断了20年之后在伯利恒重开的第六次代表大会上实现了这一转变。


Senior PLO officials have participated in demonstrations and protest activities, with some being injured and Executive Committee member Abbas Zaki imprisoned for a couple of days.	巴解组织的高级官员开始参与到游行示威活动当中，有些人在活动中被打伤，执行委员会委员阿巴斯·扎奇甚至被关了几天监狱。


Other senior Fatah officials have been banned from travel outside the West Bank, owing largely to their involvement in nonviolent protests.	其他巴解组织高级官员则因为参与非暴力抗议而被禁止踏出约旦河西岸地区一步。


In addition to nonviolent activities, Palestinian state-building efforts have been put in high gear.	除了非暴力抗议之外，巴勒斯坦的建国进程也在加速推进中。


Salam Fayyad, the energetic Western-trained Palestinian prime minister, has implemented a detailed blueprint for declaring a de facto Palestinian state by August 2011.	萨拉姆·法耶兹这位精力充沛而又受过西方训练的巴勒斯坦总理正在努力描绘一张细节化的蓝图，力促在2011年8月宣布巴勒斯坦国的事实成立。


While state-building is handled by the civilian Palestinian Authority, political efforts are handled by the PLO, whose chairman, Abbas, is the head of Fatah as well as the Palestinian Authority’s president.	在民选的巴勒斯坦民族权力机构操办建国大业之时，巴解组织则在相关政治进程上发力，其主席阿巴斯既是法塔赫的最高领导人，也是巴勒斯坦民族权力机构的总统。


Abbas and his negotiating team, headed by Erekat, have been successful in securing the support of all members of the Arab League.	阿巴斯及其领导下由伊莱凯特率领的谈判团队已经成功确保了来自阿拉伯联盟所有成员国的支持。


The PLO has succeeded in obtaining European support for a unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood.	此外巴解组织还成功确保了欧洲对巴勒斯坦单方面宣布建国的支持。


The only obstacle remaining to Palestinian leaders are the Americans.	对于巴勒斯坦领导人来说，目前唯一剩下的障碍就是美国人。


When Palestinians asked Mitchell for assurances that the US would support such a statehood declaration if talks failed, Mitchell responded that such a commitment would make negotiations pointless.	但在巴勒斯坦人要求乔治·米切尔保证美国会在谈判破裂后支持单方面建国时，总统特使却回应说这么一个承诺将令谈判变得毫无意义。


Instead, the Americans have their own ideas about how to achieve a breakthrough, especially with Israel, which the Obama administration believes is now the major obstacle.	事实上，在如何实现突破这个问题上美国人有自己的想法，尤其在是对付以色列这个奥巴马政府当前认定的头号障碍方面。


To effect change in Israel, the Americans are launching various trial balloons.	为了在以色列推动变革，美国人已经进行了各项试探。


One is that, if the current process fails, Obama might issue his own plan, which many expect would be a near-carbon copy of the proposal made by Bill Clinton’s administration in its last days ten years ago. At the time, Palestinian and Israeli negotiators were quoted as saying that the two sides had never been closer to an agreement.	其中一项就是如果当前的谈判破裂，奥巴马将可能发布自己制定的计划，许多人都预计这项计划可能会跟10年前克林顿执政末期所推出的计划如出一辙，须知当年巴勒斯坦和以色列谈判者都已经异口同声说双方已经非常接近于达成协议了。


A US peace plan that is fair and reasonable would certainly have many ordinary Israelis and Palestinians cheering.	毫无疑问，一个公平而合理的美国和平计划将得到许多以色列和巴勒斯坦普通民众的支持。


It could cause some major damage to right-wing Israeli political forces that came to power as a result of eight years of former US president George Bush’s so-called war on terror.	但这也将沉重打击以色列的右翼政治力量，这股势力是在美国前总统小布什8年反恐战争的助推下才夺得政权的。


Hiding behind that anti-Islamic façade, the Israelis have found it easy to stonewall all reasonable peace efforts, including the 2002 Arab peace plan, according to which Arab states and Muslim-majority countries agreed to normalize relations with Israel if it withdrew from areas occupied in 1967. The plan also gave Israel a role equal to that of the Palestinians in resolving the refugee issue.	但躲在反伊斯兰壁垒背后的以色列人早就知道拒绝所有合理的和平进程其实是很容易的事——这包括2002年制定的阿拉伯和平计划，当时各阿拉伯国家以及穆斯林民众占绝大多数的国家都同意如果以色列能撤出1967年占领的地区，则双边关系正常化就能立刻实现。


It called for the “achievement of a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem to be agreed upon in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution 194.”	该计划同时也在难民问题上给予了以色列和巴勒斯坦同等的地位，呼吁要“达成一个符合联合国大会194号决议的巴勒斯坦难民问题解决方案”。


Yet another US trial balloon has been the suggestion that if all of the above fails, the Americans might suggest that the Arab-Israeli conflict be resolved through the convening of an international conference.	此外另一个美国的试探性策略则是如果上述所有努力都无效的话，美国人可能建议将阿以冲突交由一场国际会议来解决。


Such a conference is in fact listed in the “road map” as part of phase III in the talks.	而这场会议实际上是被作为谈判的第三阶段列在“路线图”之上的。


Until now, Israelis and Palestinians have insisted on various “red lines” that they proclaimed they would never cross.	时至今日，以色列和巴勒斯坦双方都坚持有某些“红线”是无法僭越的。


The coming months will show whether these public postures are negotiable, with obvious consequences for both parties and their relationship with the international community, especially the US.	因此未来几个月将显示出这些公开表态是否有谈判的余地，而这也将为双方以及与国际社会（尤其是美国）的关系带来立竿见影的影响。


Training the Middle East’s Future Health-Care Professionals	培训中东未来医疗专业人士


BOSTON – The Middle East’s public-health challenges are enormous, especially when one accounts for the region’s transient population of refugees and guest workers.	波士顿—中东面临巨大的公共卫生挑战，特别是考虑到该地区临时性难民和外来工作者人口的情况下。


The refugee population alone now numbers in the millions, and is straining health-care systems in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey nearly to the breaking point.	光是难民人口目前就已经达到数百万，约旦、黎巴嫩和土耳其的医疗体系因此捉襟见肘，已经濒临崩溃。


Affluent Gulf Cooperation Council countries would be mistaken to assume that they are exempt from their neighbors’ public-health problems.	丰裕的海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家如果认为自己能够独善其身于周边公共卫生问题，将大错特错。


While GCC countries have made major improvements in hygiene and maternal and child health, they form the global epicenter of chronic non-communicable diseases – such as obesity, diabetes, heart disease, and, increasingly, cancer – that result from lifestyle and diet.	GCC国家在卫生和母婴健康方面确实取得了巨大的进步，但也因为生活方式和饮食方面的原因沦为慢性非传染病的全球集中爆发地区，如肥胖、糖尿病、心脏病以及越来越多的癌症。


Worse still, GCC countries’ national health systems have a shortage of local clinicians and trained professionals working in local public-health services.	更糟糕的是，GCC国家的国民卫生体系存在地方医疗机构和经过训练的专业地方公共卫生服务人员不足的情况。


This results in high turnover owing to overwork, and an increased need for foreign health-care workers to fill sorely needed positions.	这导致工作过量，从而人员流失率很高，需要越来越多的外国医护工作者填补人手紧缺的岗位。


GCC policymakers have been right to focus on increasing access and subsidies for quality health care.	GCC决策者正确地将重点定在增加高质量医疗的普及性和补贴上。


But the fair distribution of health-care services across native and migrant populations is often a thorny policy issue.	但医疗服务在本地和移民人口中间的公平分配常常成为棘手的政策问题。


And now policymakers must also devote more attention to the health-care workforce itself, to ensure that it is properly educated and trained for the challenges that await the region.	如今，决策者还必须将更多的注意力用于医疗工作人员本身，以确保医疗工作人员接受良好的教育和培训，应对地区所面临的挑战。


Training programs in GCC national health systems today do not focus nearly enough on innovation or systems thinking to improve efficiency and effectiveness.	目前，GCC国民卫生体系的培训计划对通过创新或系统思考改善效率和效果的关注不够。


If clinicians and health-care workers do not receive multidisciplinary training, they will be unequipped to recognize and address local public-health needs throughout the region.	如果临床医生和医疗工作者不接受多学科培训，就无法认识和解决整个地区的地方公共卫生需求。


Specifically, to improve delivery of services and care, GCC countries will need to develop a new policy framework that spans both the education and public-health sectors.	具体而言，要改善医疗服务和看护的供给水平，GCC国家需要制定新的政策框架，兼顾教育和公共卫生。


Higher education has expanded rapidly in the Middle East over the past decade.	在过去十年中，高等教育在中东迅速扩张。


Governments have created educational free-trade zones – such as the “Knowledge Villages” and “Education Cities” in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, respectively – and invested billions of dollars in new and existing universities, such as in Saudi Arabia.	政府建立起教育自由贸易区——如分别位于阿联酋和卡塔尔的“知识村”和“教育城”——并（如沙特阿拉伯等国家）向新老大学投入数十亿美元资金。


As a result, new universities, research institutions, and educational programs have attracted scholars and other professionals to the region.	因此，新大学、研究机构和教育计划吸��了学者和其他专业人士来到中东。


However, too few local students – and far too few young men – are pursuing public-health careers.	但是，以公共卫生为职业追求的本地学生太少——年轻男性更是少之又少。


While the overall number of students studying public health is increasing, most come from outside the region, which will only intensify GCC countries’ current over-dependency on foreign workers.	学习公共卫生的学生总人数在增加，但大部分来自域外，而这将加剧GCC国家目前过度依赖外来工作者的情况。


Many of the region’s universities have put a premium on innovation, which bodes well for improving health-care services.	许多域内大学奖励创新，这对于改善医疗服务是一件好事。


But, though public health is a major regional challenge, so far universities have been placing far greater emphasis on subjects in engineering and technological fields.	但是，尽管公共卫生是一项重大地区挑战，但到目前为止，各大学对工程和技术领域的重视远胜于医学。


Within health-care education itself, according to my own analysis of local institutions, students are learning to treat individual medical conditions, but they are not learning enough about larger public-health issues, and current curricula do not expose students to issues affecting refugees, migrants, or the wider population.	在医疗教育本身，据我本人对地方机构的分析，学生要学习如何治疗个体病例，但对更大的公共卫生问题学习不够，而目前的课程并不要求学生研究影响难民、移民和更广泛的人口的问题。


While institutions such as Weill Cornell in Qatar and the Gulf University of Science and Technology in Kuwait have launched innovative research and training programs that focus on these types of health challenges, much more is needed.	尽管卡塔尔的威尔康奈尔（Weill Cornell）和科威特的海湾科技大学（Gulf University of Science and Technology）等机构建立了关注这些卫生挑战的创新性研究和培训项目，但这些还远远不够。


Another problem is that the region’s education and training programs do not encourage enough systemic thinking.	另一个问题是中东教育和培训计划对系统思考的鼓励不够。


Worldwide, public-health policy is moving toward more multidisciplinary integration of engineering, medicine, social and management science, and the humanities.	从全球看，公共卫生政策的方向是工程、医学、社会和管理学以及人类学多学科综合。


By not yet embracing an integrated approach, GCC institutions risk falling behind the global standard.	但GCC机构目前仍未采取综合方法，有可能被全球水平甩在身后。


Technology and new approaches to public health are important; but they will be ineffective if they are not tailored to meet the real needs of local people.	公共卫生的技术和新方法十分重要，但如果它们不是根据本地人民的真是需要量身定制，也起不到效果。


This is why GCC countries should encourage and invest in technological development at the local level, and create room for engineers to work with local public-health professionals.	因此，GCC国家应该鼓励投资于地方水平的科技发展，并为工程师与地方公共卫生工作者的合作创造空间。


Such partnerships are necessary for confronting the infectious and chronic diseases that threaten communities throughout the region, and they have the added benefit of providing entrepreneurial opportunities for the region’s youth.	这类合作对于解决威胁到整个地区的传染病和慢性病是不可或缺的，并且还能带来为域内年轻人提供创业机会的额外好处。


Middle Eastern countries need fully integrated, innovation-oriented frameworks for training health-care professionals, so that they can address their current public-health challenges and prepare for new, unexpected ones, such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (commonly referred to as MERS), Ebola, and other infectious diseases that can appear with little or no forewarning.	中东国家需要以创新为导向的充分综合的框架来培训医疗专业人士，从而让他们能够解决当前公共卫生挑战，并为新的意料外挑战最好准备，如中东呼吸综合征（MERS）、埃博拉和其他在很少或完全没有预兆的情况下就能爆发的传染病。


The Middle East’s population will continue to grow; but whether the region will also grow in global importance as a hub for trade and economic development will depend in part on its governments’ ability to reform public-health education and practice.	中东人口仍在继续增长； 但该地区作为贸易和经济发展枢纽的全球影响力能否跟着增长部分将取决于域内政府改革公共卫生教育和实践的能力。


The Middle East Must Lead on Refugees	中东必须在难民问题上起领导作用


FEZ – Since 2012, more than 12 million migrants and refugees have landed in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.	费斯—2012年以来，有1,200万多移民和难民抵达欧洲、中东和北非。


The result has been an escalating political and humanitarian crisis – and increasingly heated debate about how to address it.	结果带来了一场不断升级的政治和人道危机——以及关于如何解决这一危机的日益激烈的争论。


In Europe, the debate is characterized by dissent and division, exemplified by the United Kingdom’s recent vote to leave the European Union – an outcome that was shaped largely by overblown fears about immigration.	在欧洲，这场争论的特点是异议和分歧，英国最近投票脱离欧盟就是明证——这一结果很大程度上是拜英国人过度担心移民所赐。


With EU member states failing to agree on how to secure external borders, much less what to do with the refugees who have already arrived, an effective, unified response has proved elusive.	欧盟成员国无法就如何捍卫外部边境形成一致，更不用说如何处置已经到达的难民了，因此，形成有效统一的应对措施难上加难。


In the Middle East, the refugee debate is not nearly as loud, but it is no less passionate.	中东的难民争论也不遑多让，并且“中气”十足。


Jordan, a country of 6.5 million, now hosts more than 1.4 million, mostly Syrian, refugees.	人口650万的约旦容纳了140万多移民（大部分是叙利亚移民）。


Lebanon’s 1.5 million Syrian refugees represent nearly one-third of the country’s population of 4.7 million.	黎巴嫩有150万叙利亚移民，相当于全国人口470万的近三分之一。


Turkey, with some 75 million citizens, now hosts 2.7 million Syrian refugees, about 30% of whom live in 22 government-run camps near the Syrian border.	土耳其人口7,500万，现在收容了270万叙利亚难民，其中大约30%生活在22个靠近土叙边境的难民营中。


With most of the refugees originating in the Middle East – especially Syria, but also Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya – the fact that the region is shouldering the overwhelming share of the burden is not surprising.	这些难民大部分来自中东——特别是叙利亚，也有的来自阿富汗、伊拉克、也门和利比亚——因此中东地区承担了绝大部分难民负担亦不足为奇。


But not all Middle Eastern countries have done enough.	但并非所有中东国家都尽了力。


The Gulf countries, despite their vast oil wealth, have taken in hardly any refugees; they contend that, because they are not parties to the 1951 United Nations Refugee Convention, they have no obligation to do so.	坐拥巨大的石油财富的海湾国家几乎没有接收难民； 他们辩称自己并非1951年联合国难民公约缔约方，因此没有义务接收难民。


The United Arab Emirates, for example, has taken in just over 200,000 Syrian nationals since the Syrian crisis began in 2011.	比如，自2011年叙利亚危机爆发以来，阿联酋只接收了略多于200,000叙利亚人。


Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria permit Syrian refugees to enter, but provide no support to those who do; there are no refugees camps in these countries.	埃及、突尼斯、摩洛哥和阿尔及利亚允许叙利亚难民入境，但不给予入境难民支持； 这些国家也没有难民营。


Meanwhile, their neighbors are straining under the weight of the crisis.	与此同时，它们的邻邦不堪危机重负。


Already, Jordan’s social-welfare budget is reaching a breaking point, spurring social tensions.	约旦的社会福利预算已接近破产，刺激着社会紧张。


Schools in both Jordan and Lebanon were overcrowded even before the refugees arrived; now they are bursting at the seams.	约旦和黎巴嫩学校在难民到达前便已拥挤不堪； 现在更是近乎崩溃。


Even the refugees who work in Jordan and Lebanon are creating problems, as they inadvertently suppress wages for lower-skill jobs.	即使是在约旦和黎巴嫩工作的难民，也在制造问题，因为他们在不经意间压低了低技能工作岗位的工资。


Turkey’s government has delivered more than $8 billion in aid; by contrast, the EU has delivered only a small share of the €3.2 billion ($3.6 billion) it pledged last November.	土耳其政府提供了80亿多美元援助； 相反，欧盟在去年11月承诺给出的32亿欧元援助只兑现了一小半。


With host countries overstretched, it is unsurprising that refugees live in rough conditions, whether in camps or very poor neighborhoods, with no amenities or sanitation.	难民接收国已经精疲力竭，因此，毫不奇怪，不管生活在难民营还是赤贫社区，难民的生活条件十分困难，得不到生活便利设施和卫生设施。


Hundreds of thousands of refugees are unemployed, including the most highly skilled among them, whose qualifications are often not recognized.	数十万难民处于失业状态，包括其中技能最高的群体，他们的资质常常得不到承认。


As a result, forced labor, slavery, prostitution, and social exclusion are on the rise.	结果，强迫劳动、奴役、卖淫和社会排斥日益兴起。


Keeping the migrants largely in the Middle East is critical – not least to prevent them from drowning in the Mediterranean in their attempt to reach Europe.	将移民基本限制在中东至关重要——至少要防止他们因为试图偷渡到欧洲而淹死在地中海。


The Turkey-EU agreement concluded last March – according to which non-refugee migrants who reach the EU are sent to Turkey – has helped, contributing to a sharp decline in the number of migrants arriving in Greece.	去年3月，土耳其和欧盟达成协议，到达欧盟的非难民移民间遣送至土耳其，这一协议很有裨益，有助于大幅降低到达希腊的移民数量。


But much more needs to be done – and Middle Eastern countries should take the lead.	但还有许多事需要完成——其中中东国家应该起到领导作用。


Most urgently, the wealthy Gulf states should provide more funding to the countries that are hosting the most refugees, thereby enabling them to begin improving living conditions for those seeking safety.	最紧迫的是，富裕的海湾国家应该为接收最多数量难民的国家提供更多的资金支持，从而使后者能够改善寻求安全的难民的生活条件。


Then, in order to develop a more comprehensive solution that keeps countries stable and ensures that refugees receive adequate protection, deeper collaboration among governments, as well as with the private sector and civil-society organizations across the region, is needed.	接着，为了制定能够保持各国稳定和确保难民获得足够保护的解决方案，需要整个地区的政府以及私人部门和公民组织之间进行更深度的合作。


The problem is that there is no consensus in the Middle East, either among governments or civil society, about how to respond to the crisis.	问题是中东尚未就如何应对危机形成一致，不管是政府还是公民社会。


To break the impasse, one or two bold and far-sighted leaders need to remind their citizens of their countries’ legal and, perhaps more important, moral duties to the refugees.	为了打破这一僵局，需要有一两位行事果断、远见卓识的领导人让国民了解他们的国家有法律——以及也许更重要的，有道德责任接受难民。


The Islamic tradition of protecting the welfare of the poor can provide the language and legitimacy needed to inspire citizens to do their part.	保护穷人福利的伊斯兰教传统能够提供启发公民做出自己贡献所需要的叙事和合法性。


In my book New Horizons of Muslim Diaspora in North America and Europe, I argue against the conventional wisdom that migrants and refugees are a threat to the Middle East’s security and development.	在拙作《北美和欧洲旅居穆斯林的新地平线》（New Horizons of Muslim Diaspora in North America and Europe）中，我反驳了一个传统智慧——移民和难民是中东安全与发展的威胁。


Just like in the developed countries of the West, migrants in the Middle East can offer untold contributions to their host societies.	正如在西方发达国家，在中东的移民能够为接收国做出不可估量的贡献。


We just need to let them.	我们只需要让他们释放潜力。


Above all, the refugees’ basic needs must be met.	最重要的是，难民的基本需要必须满足。


Decent living conditions – including housing, nutrition, and health care – must be guaranteed, in addition to educational and employment opportunities.	体面的生活条件——包括住房、营养和医疗——必须保证，除此之外还有教育和就业机会。


If a few countries continue to shoulder the entire burden, however, it will be virtually impossible to meet the refugees’ needs.	但是，如果继续由少数国家承担全部负担，满足难民需要几乎不可能。


Given this, the region needs to develop a mechanism for distributing refugees more fairly across countries, something like the EU’s quota system.	因此，中东地区需要制定一套机制在各国之间更加公平地分配难民，类似于欧盟的配额制度。


Standardized and streamlined procedures for handling asylum applications must also be implemented.	避难申请处理必须实行流程标准化和合理化。


Even if all of this is achieved, a truly sustainable solution to the refugee crisis will not come until Syria is at peace, and order is restored in failing states across the Middle East.	即使所有这些都得到实现，如果叙利亚不恢复和平，中东失败国家的秩序得不到重建，真正可持续的难民危机解决方案也不可能达成。


That is why it is so important for the region’s governments to play a bigger and more assertive role in tackling the violence and instability that lies at the root of the crisis.	因此，该地区政府在遏制作为危机根源的暴力和动荡方面扮演更大更积极的作用至关重要。


We cannot afford to wait for outside powers to resolve our most pressing problems.	我们决不能坐等外部力量解决我们最紧迫的问题。


Our governments must invest heavily in our neighbors’ stability, including by bringing the Syrian peace process to a successful conclusion, and in the wellbeing of all of our citizens.	我们的政府必须大力投入资源实现周边稳定（包括通过成功实现叙利亚和平进程）和提高全体公民的福利。


A New Century for the Middle East	中东新世纪


NEW YORK – The United States, the European Union, and Western-led institutions such as the World Bank repeatedly ask why the Middle East can’t govern itself.	纽约——美国、欧盟和世界银行等西方主导的机构反复询问中东无法实现自治的理由。


The question is asked honestly but without much self-awareness.	提问者虽然真心实意但却没有深入思考其自身行为的后果。


After all, the single most important impediment to good governance in the region has been its lack of self-governance: The region’s political institutions have been crippled as a result of repeated US and European intervention dating back to World War I, and in some places even earlier.	毕竟，该地区实现良好治理的障碍一直是缺乏自治：一战期间（在某些地区甚至更早）美国和欧洲的反复干涉破坏了该地区的政治机构。


One century is enough.	一个世纪的时间已经足够。


The year 2016 should mark the start of a new century of homegrown Middle Eastern politics focused urgently on the challenges of sustainable development.	2016年应当标志着中东自主政治新世纪的开始，迎接可持续发展挑战将是中东政治最迫切的目标。


The Middle East’s fate during the last 100 years was cast in November 1914, when the Ottoman Empire chose the losing side in World War I. The result was the empire’s dismantling, with the victorious powers, Britain and France, grabbing hegemonic control over its remnants.	1914年11月铸就了100年来中东的命运，当时的奥斯曼帝国选择了一战中战败的一方。 结果是奥斯曼帝国土崩瓦解，英法等战胜国控制了它所留下的残余领土。


Britain, already in control of Egypt since 1882, took effective control of governments in today’s Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Palestine, and Saudi Arabia, while France, already in control of much of North Africa, took control of Lebanon and Syria.	1882年后已经控制埃及的英国实际控制了今天的伊拉克、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦和沙特阿拉伯政府，而本已控制北非大片区域的法国则控制了黎巴嫩和叙利亚。


Formal League of Nations mandates and other instruments of hegemony were exercised to ensure British and French power over oil, ports, shipping lanes, and local leaders’ foreign policies.	正式的国际联盟授权及其他霸权工具确保石油、港口、货运线路和区域领导人的外交政策完全控制在英法列强的手中。


In what would become Saudi Arabia, Britain backed the Wahhabi fundamentalism of Ibn Saud over the Arab nationalism of the Hashemite Hejaz.	在后来的沙特阿拉伯，英国支持的伊本·沙特的瓦哈比原教旨主义击败了哈希姆·希贾兹领导的阿拉伯民族主义运动。


After World War II, the US picked up the interventionist mantle, following a CIA-backed military coup in Syria in 1949 with another CIA operation to topple Iran’s Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953 (to keep the West in control of the country’s oil).	二战结束后，美国接过了干预势力的衣钵，继1949年中情局支持的叙利亚军事政变后又实施了1953年（以保持西方对伊朗领土控制为目的的）推翻穆罕默德·摩萨台的中情局行动。


The same behavior has continued up to the present day: the overthrow of Libya’s Muammar el-Qaddafi in 2011, the toppling of Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi in 2013, and the ongoing war against Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.	直到今天同样的行动仍在进行中：2011年推翻利比亚卡扎菲政权、2013年推翻埃及穆罕默德·穆尔西政权，以及正在进行的针对叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的战争。


For almost seven decades, the US and its allies have repeatedly intervened (or supported internally-led coups) to oust governments that were not sufficiently under their thumb.	近70年来，美国及其盟国一再干预中东事务（或支持内部势力所领导的政变）来推翻那些不完全听话的当地政府。


The West also armed the entire region through hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons sales.	西方还通过数千亿美元的武器销售来武装整个中东。


The US established military bases throughout the region, and repeated failed operations by the CIA have left massive supplies of armaments in the hands of violent foes of the US and Europe.	美国在整个地区设立军事基地，一再失败的中��局行动已经将大量武器遗留在欧美暴力仇敌的手中。


So, when Western leaders ask Arabs and others in the region why they can’t govern themselves, they should be prepared for the answer: “For a full century, your interventions have undermined democratic institutions (by rejecting the results of the ballot box in Algeria, Palestine, Egypt, and elsewhere); stoked repeated and now chronic wars; armed the most violent jihadists for your cynical bidding; and created a killing field that today stretches from Bamako to Kabul.”	因此当西方质问该地区阿拉伯人和其他势力为什么无法实现有效自治时，他们应该准备听到这样的回答：“整整一个世纪，你们的干涉已经破坏了民主制度（拒绝承认阿尔及利亚、巴勒斯坦、埃及和其他地方的投票结果）； 反复挑起冲突并演化为长期战争；


What, then, should be done to bring about a new Middle East?	那么，究竟怎样才能建设一个新的中东？


I would propose five principles.	我认为必须坚持五点原则。


First, and most important, the US should end covert CIA operations aimed at toppling or destabilizing governments anywhere in the world.	首先，也是最重要的，美国应停止其在世界各地旨在颠覆或破坏当地政府的中情局秘密行动。


The CIA was created in 1947 with two mandates, one valid (intelligence gathering) and the other disastrous (covert operations to overthrow regimes deemed “hostile” to US interests).	成立于1947年的中情局有两项任务，其一是有效的（搜集情报），再有就是灾难性的（颠覆“敌视”美国利益政权的秘密行动）。


The US president can and should, by executive order, terminate CIA covert operations – and thereby end the legacy of blowback and mayhem that they have sustained, most notably in the Middle East.	美国总统可以并且应该通过行政命令终止中情局的秘密行动——进而终止因这些行动所引发的报复和破坏，其中最明显的例子是在中东。


Second, the US should pursue its sometimes-valid foreign-policy objectives in the region through the United Nations Security Council.	其次，美国应通过联合国安理会在中东地区推行合理目标的外交政策。


The current approach of building US-led “coalitions of the willing” has not only failed; it has also meant that even valid US objectives such as stopping the Islamic State are blocked by geopolitical rivalries.	目前建立以美国为首的“自愿联盟”的做法不仅陷入失败； 而且意味着就连阻止伊斯兰国等合理的美国目标也同样遭到地缘政治对手的封锁。


The US would gain much by putting its foreign-policy initiatives to the test of Security Council votes.	将外交政策计划在安理会诉诸表决能够令美国受益良多。


When the Security Council rejected war in Iraq in 2003, the US would have been wise to abstain from invading.	当安理会2003年否决伊拉克战争时，放弃入侵本应是美国明智的选择。


When Russia, a veto-wielding permanent member of the Council, opposed the US-backed overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the US would have been wise to abstain from covert operations to topple him.	当俄罗斯这个在安理会拥有否决权的常任理事国反对在美国支持下推翻叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德时，美国本来应该放弃秘密推翻阿萨德的行动。


And now, the entire Security Council would coalesce around a global (but not a US) plan to fight the Islamic State.	而现在，整个安理会应齐心协力制定对抗伊斯兰国的全球（而非美国）计划。


Third, the US and Europe should accept the reality that democracy in the Middle East will produce many Islamist victories at the ballot box.	第三，美欧应当接受中东民主将带来众多伊斯兰势力在投票中获胜的现实情况。


Many of the elected Islamist regimes will fail, as many poorly performing governments do.	不少当选的伊斯兰政权终将宣告失败，就像很多业绩不佳的政府一样。


They will be overturned at the next ballot, or in the streets, or even by local generals.	它们会在下一次选举、或在街头被推翻，推翻他们的甚至可能是当地的军队领袖。


But the repeated efforts of Britain, France, and the US to keep all Islamist governments out of power only block political maturation in the region, without actually succeeding or providing long-term benefits.	但英、法、美一再阻止伊斯兰政府当权却只能阻碍该地区的政治走向成熟，实际上不可能取得成功或带来长期的好处。


Fourth, homegrown leaders from the Sahel through North Africa and the Middle East to Central Asia should recognize that the most important challenge facing the Islamic world today is the quality of education.	第四，从萨赫勒到北非、从中东到中亚，土生土长的领导人应该认识到今天伊斯兰世界所面临的最大挑战是教育质量。


The region lags far behind its middle-income counterparts in science, math, technology innovation, entrepreneurship, small business development, and (therefore) job creation.	该地区在科技、数学、技术创新、创业、小企业发展和（由此带来的）就业机会创造等方面都远逊于其他中等收入国家。


Without high-quality education, there is little prospect for economic prosperity and political stability anywhere.	没有高质量的教育，任何地方都不太可能实现政治稳定和经济繁荣。


Finally, the region should address its exceptional vulnerability to environmental degradation and its overdependence on hydrocarbons, especially in view of the global shift to low-carbon energy.	最后，该地区应全力应对环境恶化和对碳氢化合物的过度依赖，尤其考虑到目前正值向低碳能源的全球转型。


The Muslim-majority region from West Africa to Central Asia is the world’s largest populous dry region, a 5,000-mile (8,000 kilometers) swath of water stress, desertification, rising temperatures, and food insecurity.	从西非到中亚的穆斯林多数地区是全世界人口最多的干旱地带，这块长达5，000英里（8，000公里）的地带面临着缺水、荒漠化、气温升高和粮食短缺的威胁。


These are the true challenges facing the Middle East.	这些才是摆在中东面前的真正挑战。


The Sunni-Shia divide, Assad’s political future, and doctrinal disputes are of decidedly lesser long-term importance to the region than the unmet need for quality education, job skills, advanced technologies, and sustainable development.	逊尼派和什叶派分歧、阿萨德的政治前景和宗教理论方面的争议长期来看对地区影响的重要性肯定比亟待满足的对高质量教育、岗位技能、先进技术和可持续发展的需求小得多。


The many brave and progressive thinkers in the Islamic world should help to awaken their societies to this reality, and people of goodwill around the world should help them to do it through peaceful cooperation and the end of imperial-style wars and manipulation.	伊斯兰世界众多勇敢进步的思想家们应竭尽全力让社会认清这一现实，世界各地满怀善意的民众应协助他们通过和平合作和结束帝国主义战争及操纵来实现这一目标。


Escaping the Middle East’s Violence Trap	摆脱中东的暴力陷阱


OXFORD – The Arab world and its neighbors are stuck in a violence trap.	牛津—阿拉伯世界及其周边陷入了暴力陷阱。


The fighting in Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, together with the predations of groups like the Islamic State, is destroying the economic links needed to ensure long-term political stability.	利比亚、叙利亚、也门和伊拉克的战事以及伊斯兰国等组织的烧杀抢掠正在摧毁确保长期政治稳定所必须的经济链条。


Indeed, by redrawing the region’s economic boundaries, the latest wave of violence has brought about a veritable trade shock, the true scale and significance of which has largely gone unnoticed.	事实上，最近的暴力潮改写了中东地区的经济边界，造成了名副其实的贸易冲击，其真正的规模和影响却尚未被大部分人所认识。


Even as the proliferation of armed groups makes borders more porous to conflict, it is hardening them against trade.	虽然武装集团的到处开花让国界因为冲突而漏洞重重，但贸易却变得更加困难了。


The consequences are being felt most acutely in the Levant, where improved transport and trade reforms had strengthened economic ties between Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.	黎凡特的状况尤其令人触目惊心。 黎凡特良好的交通状况和贸易改革曾经强化了伊拉克、约旦、黎巴嫩和叙利亚之间的经济联系。


Trade among these countries had been higher, on average, than among their Arab peers, but it has collapsed as violence has mounted.	曾经，这些国家之间的平均贸易规模要大于其他阿拉伯国家之间，但如今因为暴力的升级，贸易已经崩溃。


Syria’s border closures, in particular, have impeded regional trade, by cutting off a key route connecting the wider Levant, the Gulf States, and Turkey.	特别是叙利亚边境的关闭破坏了地区贸易——连接大黎凡特地区、波斯湾国家和土耳其的一条关键路径被关闭。


The unnoticed casualties include Lebanon’s apple growers, who survive on exports.	不为人所注意的受害者包括依靠出口生存的黎巴嫩苹果种植者。


Since 2011, Lebanon has lost almost all of its export markets in Jordan, Iraq, and the Gulf.	2011年以来，黎巴嫩几乎失去了全部约旦、伊拉克和波斯湾出口市场。


With the closure of Jordan’s last border crossing with Syria, that country faces a similar fate.	随着约旦与叙利亚最后一段边界的关闭，约旦也面临着类似的命运。


Iraq and Syria were key export markets for Jordan, and border closures have wreaked economic havoc among its farmers and manufacturers.	伊拉克和叙利亚是约旦的主要出口市场，边界关闭对约旦农民和制造商来说是一场经济灾难。


Farms in northern Jordan, effectively disconnected from Syria, can no longer sell their produce.	约旦北部的农场实际已与叙利亚完全分离，无法再向叙利亚出售产品。


Turkey’s growing trade linkages with the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula have suffered as well.	土耳其与黎凡特和阿拉伯半岛蒸蒸日上的贸易联系也受到了影响。


Five years ago, Syria’s northern border towns were reaping the dividends of Turkey’s fast-growing economy.	五年前，叙利亚北部边陲城镇享受着土耳其高速经济增长的红利。


Now they are effectively cut off.	如今它们事实上已经关闭。


Turkish imports from Syria have fallen by some 74% since 2010.	2010年以来，土耳其的叙利亚进口额下降了74%。


The region desperately needs new trade opportunities to address unemployment; instead, what it is getting is trade diversion.	中东区急切地需要新的贸易机会以解决失业； 然而，它们获得的却是贸易转移。


Turkish exports have been bypassing the conflict zones by using alternative routes, relying, for example, on the Suez Canal.	土耳其出口改走其他路径（比如苏伊士运河），绕过冲突区。


A recent World Bank study estimates that the Greater Levant region has lost nearly $35 billion over the first three years of Syria’s civil war.	世界银行的最新研究估计，在叙利亚内战的头三年，大黎凡特地区损失了近350亿美元。


The consequences for the region’s political economy are profound.	该地区政治经济的后果是深远的。


Whatever weak constituency existed in support of regional trade has been marginalized by conflict.	支持地区贸易的选区，不管多么微不足道，都因为冲突而边缘化。


For example, the closure of the last border crossing between Syria and Jordan means that the free-trade zone that thrived along the frontier is facing dissolution.	比如，叙利亚和约旦最后一段边界的关闭意味着沿线的繁荣自由贸易区正在面临瓦解。


Warehouses and factories – investments worth millions of dollars – are being dismantled, and nearby communities confront the specter of mass unemployment and rapid economic decline.	仓库和工厂——价值数百万美元的投资——正在被拆除，临近社区面临着大规模失业和经济快速衰退的前景。


This poses a fundamental dilemma for policymakers.	这给决策者造成了一个根本性困境。


As conflict destroys local economic linkages and unravels well-established supply chains, it is also demolishing the very foundation on which a peaceful and prosperous social order can be built.	冲突破坏了地方经济链条，打破了完善的供应链，还毁掉了和平和繁荣的社会秩序的建立基础。


As the Nobel laureate economist Douglass North has argued, long-term conflict resolution usually requires enduring economic relations, which are best cultivated through specialization and trade.	诺贝尔经济学奖获得者道格拉斯·诺思（Douglass North）指出，长期冲突解决方案常常需要经久的经济关系，而这种关系最好通过专业化和贸易培养。


This dynamic is easy to grasp: By increasing the cost of violent conflict, dense economic networks and multiple exchange relationships provide powerful incentives for actors to prefer peaceful solutions.	其中的逻辑动态很容易理解：稠密的经济网络和多边交换关系增加了暴力冲突的成本，为行动方提供了巨大的激励偏向和平方案。


A new economic order will therefore be necessary to create and sustain a stable new political order in the region.	因此，要在中东地区建立和维持稳定的新政治秩序，就必须建立新的经济秩序。


Such a scenario might appear to be a distant dream today, given the region’s myriad conflicts.	现在看来，中东冲突不断，这一情景似乎是一个遥远的梦。


But the ruthless logic of survival is already pushing many in the region toward cooperation with their neighbors on issues such as water, energy, and trade.	但无情的生存逻辑已经推动该地区的许多人走向与周边合作解决水、能源和贸易等问题。


In Kurdistan, for instance, authorities are setting aside political, ideological, and historical animosities to engage with Iraq’s central government, Iran, and Turkey.	比如，在库尔德斯坦，当局抛下政治、意识形态和历史恩怨，与伊拉克中央政府、伊朗和土耳其进行合作。


Similarly, economic self-interest has forced the government of South Sudan to cooperate with Sudan, from which it gained independence, following a brutal civil war, in 2011.	类似地，经济自利迫使南苏丹与苏丹进行合作。 2011年，南苏丹通过残酷的内战从苏丹脱离并独立。


In today’s turbulent Middle East, economic cooperation is no longer a matter of choice; it has become a necessity.	在当今动荡的中东，经济合作不再是一个选择问题； 而是一件必须做的事。


The well-recognized relationship between economic cooperation and political stability will be crucial for charting a way out of the current quagmire.	众所周知，经济合作和政治稳定关系密切，这一关系是走出当前困境的关键。


Ignoring it is a recipe for continued violence and fragmentation.	忽略这一点只能带来持续暴力和分裂。


The Arab World’s Water Insecurity	阿拉伯世界的水危机


BERLIN – Nowhere is freshwater scarcer than in the Arab world.	柏林—阿拉伯地区是世界上水资源最稀缺的地方。


The region is home to most of the world’s poorest states or territories in terms of water resources, including Bahrain, Djibouti, Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.	该地区也是世界上大部分水资源最贫乏国家或领地所在地，包括巴林、吉布提、加沙、约旦、科威特、利比亚、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。


This shortage – exacerbated by exploding populations, depletion and degradation of natural ecosystems, and popular discontent – is casting a shadow over these countries’ future.	水短缺因为人口爆炸、自然生态系统的枯竭和退化以及民怨而越发加剧，给这些国家的未来蒙上了一层阴影。


There is no shortage of challenges facing the Arab world.	阿拉伯地区面临着诸多挑战。


Given that many Arab states are modern constructs invented by departing colonial powers, and therefore lack cohesive historical identities, their state structures often lack strong foundations.	许多阿拉伯国家是分割殖民势力的产物，因此不存在有凝聚力的历史身份，国家结构也常常缺少根基。


Add to that external and internal pressures – including from surging Islamism, civil wars, and mass migration from conflict zones – and the future of several Arab countries appears uncertain.	除此之外还面临着内忧外患——包括伊斯兰主义兴起、内战和人口大规模逃离冲突区——一些阿拉伯国家的未来面临不确定性。


What few seem to recognize is how water scarcity contributes to this cycle of violence.	很少有人注意到的是水稀缺在这一暴力循环中所起的作用。


One key trigger of the Arab Spring uprisings – rising food prices – was directly connected to the region’s worsening water crisis.	阿拉伯之春起义的一个关键触发因素是食品价格上涨，这直接与该地区水危机恶化有关。


Water also fuels tensions between countries.	水也助长了国家间的紧张。


Saudi Arabia and Jordan, for example, are engaged in a silent race to pump the al-Disi aquifer, which they share.	比如，沙特阿拉伯和约旦正在进行一场从两国共享的al-Disi含水层取水的沉默的竞赛。


Water can even be wielded as a weapon.	水甚至能发挥武器的作用。


In Syria, the Islamic State has seized control of the upstream basins of the two main rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates.	在叙利亚，伊斯兰国掌握了两条主要河流——底格里斯河和幼发拉底河上游盆地的控制权。


The fact that nearly half of all Arabs depend on freshwater inflows from non-Arab countries, including Turkey and the upstream states on the Nile River, may serve to exacerbate water insecurity further.	近一半阿拉伯人需要仰仗来自非阿拉伯国家——包括土耳其和尼罗河上游国家——的淡水流入这一事实可能将进一步加剧水危机。


Sky-high fertility rates are another source of stress.	高企的生育率是另一个压力源。


According to a United Nations report, average annual water availability in the Arab world could fall to 460 cubic meters per capita – less than half the water-poverty threshold of 1,000 cubic meters.	据联合国报告，阿拉伯世界年均每人可用水量可能降至460立方米——还不到水贫乏阈值1,000立方米的一半。


In this scenario, water extraction will become even more unsustainable than it already is, with already-limited stores depleted faster than ever – a situation that could fuel further turmoil.	在这一情景下，抽水量将比目前更加不可持续，已经十分有限的储量将以更快的速度耗竭——这一局面可能进一步加剧动荡。


Finally, many countries offer subsidies on water, not to mention gasoline and food, in an effort to “buy” social peace.	最后，许多国家提供水补贴——更不用说汽油和食品补贴——以“购买”社会和平。


But such subsidies encourage profligate practices, accelerating water-resource depletion and environmental degradation.	但这些补贴鼓励了挥霍，加速了水资源枯竭和环境恶化。


In short, the Arab world is increasingly trapped in a vicious cycle.	简言之，阿拉伯地区正日益陷入一个恶性循环。


Environmental, demographic, and economic pressures aggravate water scarcity, and the resulting unemployment and insecurity fuels social unrest, political turmoil, and extremism.	环境、人口和经济压力加剧水稀缺，由此导致的失业和不安全助长社会动乱、政治动荡和极端主义。


Governments respond with increased subsidies on water and other resources, deepening the environmental challenges that exacerbate scarcity and lead to unrest.	政府以增加水和其他资源的补贴应对，这加深了环境挑战，从而加剧稀缺性、导致动乱。


Urgent action is needed to break the cycle.	需要采取紧急行动打破这一循环。


For starters, countries should phase out the production of water-intensive crops.	首先，各国应该停止种植水密集型庄稼。


Grains, oilseeds, and beef should be imported from water-rich countries, where they can be produced more efficiently and sustainably.	谷物、油菜和牛肉应该从水富裕国家进口，这些国家生产这些产品效率更高，也更具可持续性。


For the crops that Arab countries continue to produce, the introduction of more advanced technologies and best practices from around the world could help to reduce water use.	至于阿拉伯国家继续种植的庄稼，可以引入全球范围内更先进的技术和最佳实践以帮助降低用水量。


Membrane and distillation technologies can be used to purify degraded or contaminated water, reclaim wastewater, and desalinate brackish or ocean water.	覆膜和蒸馏技术可用于纯化水质低劣或受污染的水源，回收利用废水、淡化咸水或海水。


Highly efficient drip irrigation can boost the region’s fruit and vegetable production, without excessive water use.	高效率滴灌能够增加该地区水果和蔬菜产量而增加用水量。


Another important step would be to expand and strengthen water infrastructure to address seasonal imbalances in water availability, make distribution more efficient, and harvest rainwater, thereby opening up an additional source of supply.	另一个重要措施是扩大和强化水基础设施以解决可用水量的季节性失衡，让水的分布更有效率并收集雨水，从而实现开源。


Jordan, with Israeli collaboration and European Union aid, is creating a Red Sea-Dead Sea pipeline, a conduit that would desalinate Red Sea water, in order to provide potable water to Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian territories, and then funnel the brine to the dying Dead Sea.	约旦在以色列的合作和欧盟的帮助下，正在建设一条红海-死海管道，该管道可以淡化红海海水，从而为约旦、以色列和巴勒斯坦领地提供饮用水，然后将盐卤引入濒死的死海。


Improved water management is also crucial.	改善谁管理也很关键。


One way to achieve this is to price water more appropriately, which would create an incentive to prevent wastage and conserve supplies.	一个实现方法是对水进行更合理的定价，这将创造激励阻止浪费、节约供给。


While subsidies need not be eliminated completely, they should be targeted at smaller-scale farmers or other high-need workers and redesigned so that they, too, provide incentives for water conservation and efficiency.	补贴不必完全取消，但应该以小农或其他高需要工人为对象，并进行重新设计以使补贴也能够提供水保护和效率的激励。


Of course, wealthier, more stable countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE are better placed than conflict-torn countries like Yemen, Libya, and Iraq to address the rapidly intensifying water crisis they face.	当然，较为富裕和稳定的国家，比如沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、科威特和阿联酋，比也门、利比亚和伊拉克等饱受冲突摧残的国家更适合解决它们所面临的快速恶化的水危机。


But, in order to break the cycle of violence and insecurity, all countries will ultimately have to step up to improve water management and protect ecosystems. Otherwise, their water woes – along with internal unrest – will only worsen.	但是，要想打破暴力和不安全的循环，所有国家最终都需要采取措施改善水管理和保护生态系统、否则，它们的水危机——以及内部动荡——只会愈演愈烈。


Watering the Middle East	滋润中东


FEZ – The United Nations World Water Development Report confirms what many already know: hundreds of thousands of people in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – especially in Algeria, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen – have faced the worst water shortages in decades in 2016.	费斯—联合国世界水发展报告确认了一件众所周知的事：数十万中东和北非（MENA）人，特别是阿尔及利亚、约旦、利比亚、摩洛哥、巴勒斯坦、苏丹、叙利亚和也门人，在2016年遭遇到几十年来最严重的水短缺。


This is the last thing the region needs, as it works toward economic growth and diversification.	这是努力迈向经济增长和多元化之路的中东地区最糟糕的事情。


Multiple factors have contributed to the current situation, including climate change, desertification, water pollution, and misuse of natural resources.	多重因素造成了当前的局面，包括气候变化、沙漠化、水污染以及自然资源的使用不当。


Inadequate information, education, and communication exacerbate many of these challenges, as it reinforces a lack of awareness of – much less commitment to – environmentally friendly practices.	信息、教育和通讯不充分加剧了其中许多问题，因为这造成对环境友好行为缺乏了解——更不用说努力行动了。


Add to that inadequate disaster-risk reduction and management by governments – many of which are dealing with other conflicts and crises – and the situation has become truly dire.	此外，灾难风险消除和政府管理也存在不足——许多政府忙于应对冲突和危机——所有这些导致局面积重难返。


Algeria, for example, has been experiencing its worst drought in five decades.	比如，阿尔及利亚经历了五十年来最严重的干旱。


With much of the country’s agriculture relying heavily on rainfall, owing to underdeveloped infrastructure, cereal yields are down 40% this year.	由于基础设施落后，该国大部分农业严重依靠降雨，结果今年谷物产量下降了40%。


Despite its vast oil and gas wealth, Algeria has failed to ensure sufficient affordable water resources for its population, not to mention adequate employment opportunities.	尽管阿尔及利亚拥有巨大的石油和天然气财富，但仍无法确保人民获得足够的平价水资源，更不用说充分就业了。


As a result, the country is now being rocked by popular protests.	结果，阿尔及利亚现在到处是群众示威。


Libya has faced even greater instability, wrought by years of internal conflict.	利比亚的情况更加动荡，这是多年来内部冲突造成的局面。


The resultant power cuts and fuel scarcity undermined water distribution in the country.	由此造成的断电和燃料短缺制约了利比亚的水分配。


Last summer, the UN had to procure some five million liters of water from neighboring countries to meet the country’s needs.	去年夏天，联合国不得不从邻国调采五百万升水以满足利比亚的需求。


In Jordan, water shortages occur with devastating frequency, particularly in larger cities like Amman.	在约旦，水短缺发生频率之高令人震惊，特别是在安曼等大城市。


Jordan is estimated to have enough water reserves to support two million people.	据估算，约旦的水资源只够支持两百万人。


Yet its population is more than six million, not including the 1.5 million Syrian refugees who currently reside in the country.	但约旦人口超过六百万，并且尚不包括目前居住在约旦的150万叙利亚难民。


In times of shortage, it is the refugees who are likely to be among the first to feel the effects.	在短缺时期，难民总是首当其冲者。


Water supplies in many refugee camps, in both Jordan and Lebanon, have been cut to a minimum – a decision that affects millions of people who are already enduring scorching temperatures.	在约旦和黎巴嫩的许多难民营，水供给已经降到了最低——这一决定令酷热难耐的数百万人的情况雪上加霜。


At Rukban, a refugee camp on Jordan’s joint border with Syria and Iraq, more than 85,500 residents each receive barely five liters per day for cooking, drinking, and washing.	位于约旦与叙利亚和伊拉克的三国交界处的拉科班（Rukban）难民营，85,500多人每天只能获得大约五升水用于烹饪、饮用和盥洗。


The situation in Yemen is similarly grim.	也门的情况也同样糟糕。


Racked by sectarian violence and civil war, the country has no functioning government to manage water resources.	在暴力和内战的摧残下，也门政府已经无法正常管理水资源。


The capital, Sanaa, could run dry in ten years.	首都萨那可能在十年内变成一片焦土。


And, with half of Yemen’s population lacking access to clean water, crops are failing and disease is spreading.	一半也门人难以获得清洁水资源，这导致庄稼枯死、疾病蔓延。


The UN estimates that 14,000 children under the age of five die of malnutrition and diarrhea each year.	联合国估计，每年有14,000五岁以下儿童死于营养不良和腹泻。


Meanwhile, farmers are drilling deeper than ever for water – some wells are 500 meters deep – without any regulation.	与此同时，农民不断地向更深的地下钻井取水——有的水井深达500米——而不受任何管制。


Effective government intervention may be a long way off in Yemen, but it is feasible – indeed, imperative – in other MENA countries.	对也门来说，有效的政府干预也许遥不可及，但在其他中东和北非国家，政府干预是可行的——事实上也是当务之急。


For starters, national governments must work to modernize agricultural practices, including by training farmers and introducing more efficient irrigation tools.	首先，国家政府必须采取农业现代化措施，包括培训农民、引入更高效的灌溉工具。


Reducing farmers’ dependence on rainfall is essential.	减少农民对雨水的依赖至关重要。


Some countries – namely, Morocco and Jordan – have already taken some important steps in this direction.	一些国家——摩洛哥和约旦——已经朝这一方向迈出了重要步骤。


Morocco’s government, in particular, has made substantial efforts to develop its water resources, including through dam-building.	特别是摩洛哥政府采取了一些大规模措施开发水资源，包括建造大坝。


But there is a still a long way to go.	但仍有很多工作要做。


Water-distribution efficiency in Morocco remains low – just 60% for irrigation.	摩洛哥的水分配效率仍然很低——只有60%用于灌溉。


For a country that has experienced more than 20 droughts in 35 years, that is a serious problem.	对于一个35年中经历了20多次干旱的国家来说，这是一个严重的问题。


The good news is that the African Development Bank recently approved a loan of more than €88 million ($98.7 million) to fund a project aimed at improving the quality of water distribution.	好消息是非洲开发银行最近批准了一笔8,800万多欧元的贷款用于支持旨在改进水分配质量的项目。


This points to a crucial insight: no one country can do it alone.	这引出了一个重要的洞见：没有一个国家能够独力行动。


Regional and international cooperation is badly needed.	中东和北非急需地区和国际合作。


MENA countries must support one another in implementing programs modeled on what has worked elsewhere.	地区内国家必须彼此支持，实施效仿其他地区证明有效的榜样的措施。


Moreover, additional investment – financed from domestic and international sources – should be allocated to repairing aging water infrastructure, as well as new projects, such as well-designed dams and water reservoirs.	此外，新增投资——通过国内和国际资源融资——应该用于修复老旧水基础设施以及建设新项目，如设计合理的大坝和水库。


And stronger efforts must be made to safeguard existing water resources.	必须花大力气保护现有水资源。


Here, the public has an important role to play.	在这方面，公众可以起到重要作用。


But citizens first must be made aware not only of how to use water more sensibly, but also of how to protect against climate-related disaster risk.	但公民首先必须明白，他们不但要更合理地用水，也要了解如何预防气候相关的灾难风险。


For the private sector and NGOs, upgrading water management in the MENA region presents a major opportunity to invest in water-services delivery and related technology.	对私人部门和非政府组织来说，升级中东和北非地区的水管理是一次投资供水和相关技术的重要机会。


The regional market for enhanced local sanitation and water-related services is estimated to be worth over $200 billion.	强化地方公共卫生和水相关服务的地区市场据估计可达2,000亿美元以上。


Projects aimed at meeting this demand are a smart investment.	旨在满足这一需求的项目是明智的投资。


But it is up to governments to take the first steps.	但第一步需要政府迈出。


If they do not take action to preserve water reserves and standardize supply, the most defenseless populations will continue to suffer, a situation that can easily lead to unrest – or worse.	如果政府不采取行动保护水储备、标准化水供给，那么最脆弱人群将继续受苦，这一状况很容易导致动荡甚至更加糟糕的局面。


Indeed, if nothing is done to address the water challenges facing the MENA region, those challenges may fuel future wars.	事实上，如果对于中东和北非地区的水挑战无动于衷，这些挑战将助长未来战争。


At the next meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, to be held in Morocco in November, water should be at the top of the agenda.	在将于11月份摩洛哥举行的联合国气候变化框架公约各方会议上，水应该成为议程中的重点。


Given that more than 80% of the national contributions to the fight against climate change from the countries of the global South focus on water challenges, coordinated action by governments and international actors can no longer be postponed.	在来自南方国家的用于遏制气候变化的国家资金中，80%的目标是水挑战，因此，政府和国际行动方之间的协作决不能再停滞下去了。


How to Win in the Middle East	怎样在中东做赢家


RIYADH – Analysts the world over are assessing the situation in the Middle East in 2012 by listing the region’s “winners” and “losers.”	利雅得—全世界的分析家在评估2012年的中东局势时都使用地区“赢家”和“输家”标签。


Hamas won.	哈马斯是赢家。


Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi won, then lost.	埃及总统穆尔西先赢后输。


US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won.	美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿是赢家。


Syria lost.	叙利亚是输家。


Iraq lost.	伊拉克是输家。


Iran had a draw (tougher sanctions, but closer to nuclear-weapons capability), as did Saudi Arabia (growing clout, but unable to stop the killings in Syria or Gaza) and Israel (avoided massive bloodshed, but became even more isolated).	伊朗不输不赢（制裁更严厉了，但距离核武器生产能力也更近一步了）。 沙特阿拉伯（更强大了，但无法阻止叙利亚和加沙的杀戮行为）和以色列（避免了大规模流血，但变得更加孤立了）也不输不赢。


All of these lists, however, are merely the pastimes of policy wonks.	但是，列举输赢只是政治书呆子的消遣。


In the bloody, hostile miasma of the Middle East, being a “winner” in any sense of the word is fallacious.	在中东流血、敌对的气氛中，做“赢家”始终是镜花水月。


The region continues to breed only losers.	中东地区所有的仍旧是一串输家。


The victims of the conflicts in Syria, Iran, and Palestine; the friends and families of the victims; those who hope for peace: all lost.	叙利亚、伊朗和巴勒斯坦的冲突受害者、受害者的亲朋好友、祈祷和平的人，他们都是输家。


This is a grim reminder that when it comes to killing one another, repeatedly missing opportunities for peace, and botching all efforts at progress, no one can beat the Middle East.	一个冷酷的事实是，杀戮、一再失去和平机会、糟蹋所有进步尝试，一想起这些，中东就没有赢家。


In 2012, the region proved once again that it is truly the best at perpetrating the worst.	2012年，中东再一次证明，这个地区最擅长犯下最严重的罪恶。


When will these vital, eclectic, and prosperous (or potentially prosperous) countries stop their ravenous infighting and start nurturing, protecting, and sustaining their people?	这些重要的折中主义繁荣（或有繁荣潜力的）国家什么时候才能停止贪得无厌的暗斗，开始哺育、保护和维持它们的人民？


While there have been many prescriptions, I will provide my own 2012 Middle East roundup, with a look toward what must happen in 2013 if we want it to bring fewer losses.	每个人都有不同的看法，我将提供我自己的2012中东综述，并给出2013年的建议，如果我们想让损失少些的话。


The Israeli killing machine must be stopped by a determined United States using its leverage to bring about implementation of the land-for-peace principles of United Nations Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, the Madrid Conference, the Oslo Agreement, and the Abdullah Peace Initiative.	美国必须下决心借助其影响力推行联合国安理会第242和338号决议、奥斯陆协议和阿卜杜拉和平倡议的土地换和平原则，阻止以色列的杀戮机器。


This is the only way out of the current unworkable predicament.	这是解决当前无从下手的困境的唯一办法。


Borrowing a term from nuclear strategy, the situation between Israel and the Palestinians can be described only as “mutually assured destruction,” also known, fittingly, as MAD.	借用一句核战略术语，以色列和巴勒斯坦局势只能用“确保相互摧毁”（mutually assured destruction）来形容，简称MAD（疯狂），真是再合适不过了。


It benefits no one, so why let it continue?	这对哪方都没有好处，为什么还要让它持续下去？


Only the US has the ability to push the Israelis out of their MAD-ness, so I look forward to the Obama administration recognizing and acting on that moral obligation in the coming year.	只有美国才有能力让以色列不再继续“MAD”下去，因此我希望明年奥巴马政府能认识和行使其道德义务。


The Assad killing machine must also be stopped.	巴沙尔杀戮机器也必须阻止。


In this case, it is through the West agreeing with Saudi Arabia to arm the Free Syrian Army with the defensive weapons that it needs to ground Bashar al-Assad’s aircraft and immobilize his tanks and artillery.	着这个问题上，可以通过西方同意沙特阿拉伯用防御武器武装自由叙利亚军，抵抗巴沙尔的空袭、钳制其坦克和火炮。


Unlike some conflicts in the region, this is a case with a clear and simple solution.	与中东地区的其他一些冲突不同，叙利亚有明确而简单的解决方案。


Those being attacked merely need weapons to defend themselves; if they get them, the entire dynamic of the conflict will shift, in turn ending the bloodshed.	被袭击者只是需要自卫的武器； 得到了自卫武器，整个冲突局面就会改变，流血就会走向停止。


By now, all of the actors in Syria are known.	目前，叙利亚的行动各方都是已知的。


There are no hidden jihadis, terrorists, or gangsters.	没有隐藏的圣战主义者、恐怖主义者和黑社会。


They are all well documented.	他们都有很好的记录。


So the moderates are the ones who should get the anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons.	因此温和派应该获得放空和反坦克武器。


Having them, their prestige among other fighters will soar, and so will support for their moderate stance.	有了这些武器，他们在其他斗士中间的地位就会提高，这将有助于支持他们的温和立场。


Iranian intervention in Iraq must stop.	伊朗对伊拉克的干预必须阻止。


It is tearing Iraq apart and endangering the countries around it.	这是在撕裂伊拉克、威胁伊拉克周边国家。


Western and Iranian support for Nouri al-Maliki’s government, which is controlled by Iran’s Basij militia, must be withdrawn, enabling the Iraqi people to determine freely their own destiny.	西方和伊朗对被伊朗巴斯基（Basij）民兵控制的马利基政府的支持必须收回，让伊拉克人民自由决定自己的命运。


Did the Americans defeat Saddam Hussein, and did more than 100,000 Iraqis die in the process, so that their country could become a puppet of the hostile Iranian regime?	难道因为美国推翻了侯赛因，因为超过10万伊拉克人民在此过程中丧生，就意味着他们的国家应该沦为充满敌意的伊朗政权的傀儡？


Iran’s meddling in Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen, and other Gulf states must end as well.	伊朗在巴林、科威特、也门和其他海湾国家的胡作非为也应该阻止。


In addition to these major tasks, Palestine’s main political rivals, Hamas and Fatah, must reconcile and turn their united efforts toward improving the lives of the Palestinian people.	除了这些主要任务，巴勒斯坦的主要政治对峙势力——哈马斯和法塔赫——必须和解，并转而同心协力改善巴勒斯坦人民的生活。


Egypt must get over its post-revolutionary squabbling and reassume its leading role among the Arab states.	埃及必须结束后革命时期动乱，重新担起阿拉伯国家的领导责任。


And all Arab states must coordinate their efforts to realize common ambitions, rather than continuing to pursue only narrow national interests.	所有阿拉伯国家必须合作实现共同的雄心，而不是继续围绕狭隘国家利益争吵不休。


Central to all of these tasks is a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that is united into a confederation that can meet the challenges of Iran’s regional ambitions and bring major military deployments to bear on regional conflicts.	这些任务的核心是海湾合作委员会（GCC），这是一个联合体，能够应对伊朗地区野心挑战并提供军事力量遏制地区冲��。


If anything has become clear in the last year, it is that states like Israel, Iran, and Syria will act with impunity if no one is ready, willing, and able to stand up to them.	如果说过去的一年让什么变得清晰的话，那就是，像以色列、伊朗和叙利亚这样的国家，如果没人准备、愿意和能够站出来抵抗它们，它们会似乎忌惮。


It is time for the GCC, anchored on Saudi Arabia's power, to take up that role.	以沙特为实力之锚的GCC应该站出来起作用了。


The Middle East has been losing for too long, because its national leaders have been seeking to win in their own way, for their own purposes, and at everyone’s cost but their own.	中东失去了太长时间，因为各国年一直在寻找不惜他人代价、向着自己的目标追求胜利的办法。


Such unilateralism is impossible in today’s globalized world.	在当今全球化的世界里，这一套单边主义已经行不通了。


We must join together, or else we will rip each other to shreds.	我们必须团结一致，否则只能互拖后腿。


The choice is simple: Do we want to be winners or losers?	选择很简单：我们想当赢家还是想当输家？


Migration Is Development	移民就是发展


LONDON – In September 2000, the United Nations Millennium Development Goals rallied the international community behind a shared vision.	伦敦——2000年9月，联合国千年发展目标将国际社会汇聚一堂实现共同的目标。


The MDGs, which expire in 2015, signaled a new era of global cooperation, and triggered real progress in terms of lifting millions of people out of extreme poverty, improving health and access to education, and empowering women.	2015年到期的千年发展目标开启了全球合作的新时代，在千百万人摆脱极端贫困、改善医疗教育机会以及女性授权等领域取得了真正的进展。


The eight original MDGs, which include reducing child mortality and achieving universal primary education, are lauded for their simplicity and measurability.	原有的八项千年发展目标，包括降低儿童死亡率和普及小学教育因其简单明了和容易量化而备受称赞。


They took an abstract, outsize challenge and distilled it into achievable ends.	我们把抽象而巨大的挑战细分成可以量化的阶段。


But, as Albert Einstein loved to say, “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”	但阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦曾经说过，“不是所有重要问题都能量化，也不是所有可以量化的问题都重要。 ”


Today, it is important that we not become trapped by what worked in the past.	今天，重要的是我们必须跳出过去行之有效的方法的羁绊。


To succeed, the post-2015 agenda must break the original mold. It must be grounded in a fuller narrative about how development occurs – a narrative that accounts for complex issues such as migration.	成功的后2015年计划必须打破原有模式并立足于对包括移民等复杂问题在内的发展进程的全方位勾勒。


Otherwise, the global development agenda could lose its relevance, and thus its grip on stakeholders.	否则全球发展计划也许会变得无关紧要，并失去对利益相关者的关注。


It is perhaps understandable that the original MDGs did not mention either internal or international migration.	原有的“千年发展目标”并未涉及国内或国际移民或许可以理解。


These are politically sensitive topics that could have polarized, rather than united, the international community.	类似的政治敏感问题可能导致国际社会分裂而不是团结一致实现目标。


Moreover, our empirical understanding of how migration interacts with development was limited at the time; there was little data with which to shape measurable goals.	此外，当时我们对移民与发展关系的经验认识非常有限，鲜有数据可以用于制定量化目标。


Yet migration is the original strategyfor people seeking to escape poverty, mitigate risk, and build a better life.	但移民是希望摆脱贫困、减轻风险和建设美好生活者的独创法则。


It has been with us since the dawn of mankind, and its economic impact today is massive.	从人类起源开始它就伴随在我们身边，今天仍然产生着巨大的经济影响。


Migrant remittances exceed the value of all overseas development aid combined, to say nothing of the taxes that migrants pay, the investments they make, and the trade they stimulate.	移民汇款超过了海外发展援助的价值总和，这还不算移民缴纳的税费、进行的投资和引发的贸易活动。


As we consider the next-generation development agenda, it is also critical to understand that migration was a vital force in achieving the original MDGs.	思考下一代发展议程时，理解移民是实现原有“千年发展目标”的生力军至关重要。 今天国际移民总数约为2.


There are an estimated 215 million international migrants today – a number expected to grow to 400 million by 2040 – and another 740 million internal migrants who have moved from rural to urban areas within countries.	15亿，到2040年预计将达到4亿的规模——另外还有7. 4亿国内移民从农村迁移到城市居住。


Each typically supports many family members back home, which also helps to lift entire communities.	每个移民一般都供养着众多家庭成员，这有助于实现整个地区脱贫的目标。


In Bangladesh, for example, just 13% of households that receive remittances from abroad are below the poverty line, compared to 34% of non-remittance-receiving households.	打个比方，孟加拉只有13%收到国外汇款的家庭生活在贫困线以下，而不接收汇款的家庭贫困比例为34%。


Evidence from Latin America, Africa, South Asia, and elsewhere shows that remittances reduce the depth and severity of poverty, and that the additional income is disproportionately spent on education and health.	来自拉美、非洲、南亚和其他地区的证据表明汇款能缓解贫困的严重程度，而且绝大部分额外收入被用于教育和医疗卫生。


In rural Pakistan, remittances are associated with higher school enrollment, especially for girls.	汇款能提高巴��斯坦农村儿童尤其是女童的入学率。


The list goes on.	类似的实例还有很多。


Beyond the data, there is no greater symbol of the world’s growing interdependence than the movement of people.	除统计数据外，没有什么比人员流动更能体现世界的相互依赖。


If we can make meaningful economic progress in the coming generations, one of the pivotal reasons will be that people are allowed to move more freely.	如果未来几代人能够实现有意义的经济进步，关键原因之一是人们可以自由地流动。


Advanced countries, with their adverse demographic trends, need migrants, as do developing countries – not only for migrants’ economic contributions, but also for the social and cultural diversity that they bring.	发达国家人口日渐萎缩需要移民，发展中国家也同样如此——这不仅是因为移民的经济贡献，还因为社会文化多样性同样是移民的产物。


This is not to deny that migration has downsides.	这不是否认移民有缺点。


But migration is here to stay, and it is growing.	但移民仍将继续，而且还会进一步发展。


There can be no return to a monoethnic past, so successful societies will need to adapt to diversity.	不可能回到过去那种单一的民族状况，因此成功的社会需要适应多样性的要求。


Typically, development experts regard migration as a sign of failure: if development policies work, people should not want to move.	发展专家往往将移民视为一种失败：如果发展政策奏效民众应当不想移民才对。


Accordingly, migration has been viewed as a problem to be solved – not as a solution to a problem.	因此，移民一直被视为需要解决的问题，而不是解决问题的手段。


But migration should not be considered good or bad; it is simply natural to the human condition.	但移民其实不分好坏，它只是人类的一种天性。


People migrate from poor countries, from middle-income countries, and from rich countries.	移民既来自穷国和中等收入国家，也来自富国。


They go from north to south, south to north, south to south, and north to north.	人们从北方迁移到南方，从南方迁移到北方，从南方迁移到南方，从北方迁移到北方。


The likeliest outcome of the debate on the post-2015 global development agenda will be something between the MDG-style approach – concrete, measurable targets for reducing extreme poverty – and the emerging sustainable development narrative, which emphasizes the complex forces of interdependence, such as migration and climate change.	在千年发展目标（缓解极端贫困的具体、量化目标）政策和日渐兴起、强调移民和气候变化等相互依存的复杂力量的可持续发展蓝图间找到平衡点将是后2015年全球发展议程讨论最有可能产生的结果。


In the imperfect world of politics, this middle ground would be a positive outcome.	在不完美的政治世界中，找到这样的中间地带将产生积极的效果。


Fortunately, the type of measurable outcomes that the MDGs have thus far demanded are being developed for migration.	令人庆幸的是，正在就移民问题制定千年发展目标所要求的量化结果。


The overarching goal is to design a roadmap that can take us from today’s poorly managed, exploitative system of human mobility to one that is well managed, protects migrant rights, and plans for the consequences and opportunities of migration.	总体目标是绘制发展蓝图，让我们从今天管理不善、带有剥削性质的人员流动制度转变为管理有序、保护移民权利和对移民所带来的机遇和后果胸有成竹的制度。


An ideal result would focus attention on the need to reduce the barriers to all kinds of human mobility – both internal and across national borders – by lowering its economic and social costs.	通过降低经济社会成本重点消除国内国际人员流动障碍是一种理想的结果。


Such an agenda includes simple measures, like reducing fees for visas, and more complex reforms, like allowing migrants to switch employers without penalty and increasing the proportion of migrants who enjoy legal protections and labor rights.	这样的议程既包括降低签证费用等简单的措施，也包括更为复杂的改革，比方说允许员工在不受处罚的情况下更换雇主和增加享受法律保护和劳工权利的移民比重。


The bottom line is that making migration part of the world’s development strategy will have a meaningful impact on the lives of migrants, affording them greater access to rights and to the fruits of their labor.	总之，让移民成为世界发展战略的一部分将对移民生活产生具有深远意义的影响，让移民拥有更多权利，并能更好地享受自己的劳动成果。


Perhaps even more important, it could change public perceptions of migrants, so that they are viewed as a blessing rather than a scourge.	也许更重要的是它能够改变对移民的公众认识，让他们被视为一种祝福，而不是洪水猛兽。


Migration Fact vs. Migration Fiction	移民事实与移民故事


LONDON – Migration continues to dominate political debate in many countries.	伦敦—在许多国家，移民仍然是政治争论的主题。


Rightly so: the issue affects economies and societies worldwide.	理应如此：这个问题影响着全世界的经济和社会。


But public opinion on this crucial topic tends to be shaped by emotions, rather than facts.	但这一关键主题的公共观点总是被情绪而不是事实左右。


The result is a lack of open and effective dialogue about migration’s risks – or its many benefits.	结果是关于移民的风险——或其诸多好处——缺少公开有效的对话。


Populist leaders, in particular, have been eager to manipulate the migration debate, using inflated figures and other gross exaggerations to stoke popular fears.	特别是，民粹主义领导人急切地想要操纵移民争论，用注水的数字和其他恶意夸张煽动群众恐慌。


Such incendiary rhetoric directly hurts immigrants, even those who have long lived in their new country.	这类煽动言辞直接伤害了移民，即使是那些在新国家定居已久的人也不能幸免。


In the United Kingdom, reported hate crimes against immigrants surged 42% year on year in the run-up to and aftermath of June’s Brexit referendum.	在英国，6月份英国脱欧公投前后针对移民的报道仇恨犯罪同比激增42%。


But the impact of anti-immigrant sentiment extends far beyond national borders.	但反移民情绪的影响远远不只限于国内。


If populist fear-mongering drives their countries to embrace exclusionary, protectionist policies, the effect on the global economy – and the livelihoods of millions of people around the world – would be disastrous.	如果民粹主义散布恐慌导致各国采取保护主义排斥政策，对全球经济——以及全世界数百万人的生活——的影响将是灾难性的。


It is now up to rational political leaders and mass media to reintroduce facts into the debate.	现在，理性的政治领袖和大众媒体应该让事实重新主导争论。


They must publicize the actual figures for migration flows, both into and out of their countries.	它们必须宣传移民流的真正数字（包括流入和流出数字）。


They must make clear to citizens that many of the problems for which immigrants are blamed are not actually their fault.	它们必须向公民澄清，许多被指责是移民带来的问题实际上并不是他们的错。


And they must highlight immigrants’ large social and economic contributions.	它们必须强调移民对社会和经济的巨大贡献。


The Brexit vote was driven by a distorted picture – eagerly painted by tabloid newspapers and populist politicians – of a country overflowing with migrants.	英国脱欧投票受到了扭曲的印象的推动，即英国移民过多。 花边小报和民粹主义政客不遗余力地营造这一印象。


And, in fact, surveys show that in most countries, residents greatly overestimate the number of migrants in their midst.	而事实上，调查表明，在大部分国家，居民大大高估了移民的数量。


In some Eastern European countries, Muslim migrants are perceived as being up to 70 times more numerous than they are.	在一些东欧国家，穆斯林移民被高估了多达70倍。


The truth is that the share of people living outside their countries of origin has barely increased in recent decades, standing around 3% of the nearly 7.5 billion people alive today.	真相是生活在祖国之外的人口的比例在近几年中几乎没有增加，占当今近75亿人口的3%左右。


In the last five years, 36.5 million people – just 0.5% of the global population – have left their native lands.	在过去五年，3,650万人——仅占全球人口的0. 5%——离开了故土。


It is a myth that all developing-country citizens seek to reach wealthy Western societies.	所有发展中国家的公民都想前往西方富裕社会，这是一个子虚乌有的传说。


Those who do migrate are far more likely to stay in their own region.	真正移民的人，生活在本来的地区的可能性要高得多。


Less than 1% of Africans have relocated to Europe.	只有不到1%的非洲人迁往欧洲。


Meanwhile, plenty of advanced-country citizens – including 4.9 million UK nationals – are represented in global migration figures.	与此同时，全球移民数字中包含了大量发达国家公民——包括490万英国人。


Claims that migrants are a drain on national budgets are similarly inaccurate.	移民大量消耗国家预算的说法也不正确。


In the UK, immigrants generate more in taxes than they draw in benefits.	在英国，移民所缴纳的税收比获得的福利更多。


In fact, many advanced countries need migrants.	事实上，许多发达国家需要移民。


Of the ten countries with the highest share of people over the age of 65, nine are in Europe.	在65岁以上人口比例最多的十个国家中，九个在欧洲。


While industrialized countries often suffer a shortage of low-skill workers – Hungary recently acknowledged that it needs 250,000 foreign workers to fill the gaps in its labor market – immigrants are not necessarily uneducated.	工业化国家常常会出现低技能工人短缺——匈牙利最近承认，它需要250,000外国工人填补劳动力市场缺口——而移民也未必教育程度低下。


In 2010, 29% of immigrants to the OECD had university degrees.	2010年，前往经合组织的移民中有29%拥有大学学历。


Beyond contributing to host economies as workers, entrepreneurs, investors, and taxpayers, migrants (and refugees) support development in their countries of origin through remittances.	除了作为工人、企业家、投资者和纳税人为东道经济体做贡献外，移民（和难民）还通过侨汇支持祖国的发展。


Indeed, remittances account for a significant share of GDP in many developing countries, and are often the largest source of foreign-currency earnings.	事实上，在许多发展中国家，侨汇可占GDP的很大一部分，并且常常是最大的外汇收入来源。


Not only do remittances help pay for critical imports; by improving the balance of payments, they allow countries to borrow at lower interest rates in private capital markets.	侨汇不但帮助购买关键进口品； 还通过改善收支平衡让国家能够以更低的利率在私人资本市场上借贷。


Of course, there are challenges associated with migration.	当然，移民也带来了一些挑战。


But they can be overcome.	但这些挑战可以克服。


The refugee crisis in the Mediterranean, which has spurred panic across Europe, could have been addressed effectively with coordinated international action, as occurred in the past.	在全欧洲造成恐慌的地中海难民危机原本可以像过去那样通过国际合作行动有效解决。


In the 1970s and 1980s, the international community rallied to resettle more than a million Vietnamese.	20世纪七八十年代，国际社会一同安置了一百多万越南难民。


In the 1990s, when the Balkan conflicts displaced almost four million people, Europe stood up and helped.	20世纪90年代，巴尔干半岛冲突导致四百万人流离失所，欧洲站出来为他们提供了帮助。


But the political atmosphere today is less welcoming.	但今天的政治环境不太有利。


Donald Trump, the Republican US presidential nominee, portrays Syrian refugees fleeing for their lives as a security threat, despite the thorough screening procedures implemented by the current administration, which has committed to taking 10,000 Syrian refugees by the end of the fiscal year.	共和党美国总统提名人唐纳德·特朗普将为了保命而逃离的叙利亚难民称为安全威胁，尽管现任政府的监控流程十分严格，到本财年年底将只接受10,000难民。


Hungary is set to hold a referendum in October on EU refugee quotas.	匈牙利即将在10月份举行关于欧盟难民配额的公投。


As advanced countries fight to keep out asylum-seekers – in Hungary’s case, just a few thousand – developing countries are housing millions of them.	在发达国家竭力将寻求庇护者拒之门外的同时——在匈牙利，寻求庇护者的人数只有几千人——发展中国家收留了数百万难民。


Five countries that together constitute less than 2% of global GDP – Turkey, Jordan, Pakistan, Lebanon, and South Africa – provide shelter to almost half of the world’s refugees.	土耳其、约旦、巴基斯坦、黎巴嫩和南非GDP加起来之战全球的2%，但为近一半的全世界难民提供了收容所。


The world’s six wealthiest countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, France, and the UK – account for 60% of global GDP, but they hosted fewer than 9% of all refugees last year.	而世界最富裕的六个国家——美国、中国、日本、德国、法国和英国——占了全球GDP的60%，但去年只接受了不到9%的难民。


This is no accident.	这不是巧合。


From 2010 to 2014, European states spent more than €1 billion ($1.1 billion) on walls and borders.	从2010年到2014年，欧洲国家花了10亿多欧元用于修筑隔离墙和边境。


These attempts to “regain control” by erecting new barriers force migrants into the hands of exploitative smugglers and undermine trade and cooperation.	这些通过建立新藩篱实现“重新控制”的措施迫使移民落入蛇头手中，并危害贸易和合作。


As it stands, only 7,200 of the 22,504 non-European refugees that the EU pledged last year to resettle have arrived.	目前，欧盟去年承诺收容的22,504名非欧洲难民中只有7,200人到达欧洲。


Thousands of unaccompanied children, the most vulnerable of migrants, have yet to find a place.	数千名没人陪护的儿童——最脆弱的移民群体——尚未找到容身之所。


Beyond the legal obligations of all signatories of the 1951 Refugee Convention, this is a test of humane values and decency – one that the so-called advanced countries are largely failing.	这不但是1951年《难民公约》所有签署国的法律义务，也是人道主义价值和体面的考验——所谓的发达国家大多没有通过这场考验。


It is time for these countries to recognize that the best way to ensure orderly migration is to open legal channels for refugees and migrants.	这些国家应该认识到，确保有序移民的最佳办法是为难民和移民开放合法渠道。


As for integration, some of the practical hurdles can be overcome through more local investment and more coherent policies across government departments.	至于融合，一些实际操作上的障碍可以通过更多的本地投资和各政府部门间更加团结的政策克服。


People have always moved, either by choice or when forced by circumstances.	人们永远在迁徙，要么是出于选择，要么是受环境所迫。


This will not change.	这一点不会改变。


It is time to stop resisting it and, armed with facts, start managing it.	现在，我们应该停止抵制这一现象，并以事实为武器开始管理它。


The Unity of Water	水团结


MOSCOW – In May, Vietnam became the 35th and decisive signatory of the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses.	莫斯科—5月，越南成为1997年联合国非航用国际水道法公约（Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses）第35个签署国。


As a result, 90 days later, on August 17, the convention will enter into force.	这具有决定性意义。 90天后，即8月17日，该公约将生效。


The fact that it took almost 50 years to draft and finally achieve the necessary ratification threshold demonstrates that something is very wrong with the modern system of multilateralism.	该公约用了几近50年时间起草和完成批准流程，这一事实表明现代多边主义存在严重问题。