Another advance could follow, based on Graça Machel’s victory a decade ago in convincing the UN Security Council to implement a system for reporting violence against children in conflict zones.	另一项进展可能随之而来，其基础是格雷西·马歇尔（Graça Machel）十年前成功说服联合国安理会实施了冲突地区针对儿童暴力事件报告制度。


At the time, it was agreed that a Special Representative on Children and Armed Conflict, whose work is backed by the threat of sanctions, would also be established.	当时人们达成共识，还应该设置儿童和武装冲突特别代表并且以制裁威胁作为其工作的后盾。


Today, a similar post – underpinned by the same system of reporting and sanctions – should be created to focus on children’s other rights.	如今，应该设置一个受到相同的报告和制裁制度支持的类似职位专门负责儿童的其他权利。


Next month, Satyarthi and the girls’-rights leader Malala Yousafzai will receive this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, reminding the world that a children’s-rights struggle is underway – one that is increasingly being led by young people.	下个月，萨蒂亚尔希和女孩权利领袖马拉拉·尤沙夫赛（Malala Yousafzai）将领取今年的诺贝尔和平奖，他们的获奖提醒世界，儿童权利斗争仍在进行中，并且日益由年轻人所领导。


Indeed, frustrated with adults’ failure to discharge what should be their duties toward children, young people are forming child-marriage-free zones, launching anti-slavery groups, and organizing education-rights campaigns.	事实上，由于成年人无法卸下他们应有的对儿童的责任，大失所望的年轻人正在构建禁止童婚区、成立反奴隶集团、组织教育权利运动。


Such initiatives – including Bangladesh’s 20 child marriage-free zones, Nepal’s Kamlari Forum, and Ethiopia’s Yellow Movement of university students – may not yet be trending on Twitter and Facebook, but they are engaging millions of young people worldwide.	这些计划——包括孟加拉国的20个禁止童婚区、尼泊尔的卡穆拉利论坛（Kamlari Forum）和埃塞俄比亚大学生的黄色运动（Yellow Movement）——或许还未在Twitter和Facebook上形成气候，但正在吸引全世界数百万年轻人的参与。


Now, the Global March Against Child Labor and A World at School have come together to support the #UpForSchool petition, which links the universal provision of education to ending child exploitation.	如今，反童工全球示威（Global March Against Child Labor）、女孩不做新娘（Girls Not Brides）和学校中的世界（A World at School）等组织已联合起来支持#UpForSchool petition（为学校请愿）——为实现普世教育从而结束剥削儿童而建立的链接。


Over the next several months, youth groups in 190 countries will be collecting, it is hoped, a record number of signatures.	在未来几个月中，190个国家的青年组织将集合起来，希望能够举行创纪录的签名活动。


But we must do more than read and sign the petition.	但我们的作为不能决不能局限于签名和请愿。


We must recognize that today’s movement to ensure children’s rights is the civil-rights struggle of our generation – and do whatever it takes to support it.	我们必须认识到，今天确保儿童权利的运动时我们这一代人的民权斗争——并且应该竭尽全力支持这场斗争。


Recovering Humanitarian Law	恢复人道主义法则


MADRID – Even amid the chaos and catastrophes caused by war, there are internationally recognized limits on combatants’ behavior.	马德里——即使在战争引发的混乱和灾难中，对战斗人员的行为限制也存在国际公认的法则。


And yet recent deliberate attacks on refugee camps and hospitals, in Syria and elsewhere, demonstrate an absolute disdain for basic humanitarian norms.	但最近在叙利亚和其他地方故意袭击难民营和医院的做法表现出袭击者绝对地蔑视基本的人道主义准则。


Indeed, such behavior – which also includes obstruction of humanitarian aid and attacks on medical and humanitarian personnel – has become all too common.	事实上，这样的行为——其中包括阻止人道主义救援和袭击医疗及人道主义人员——已经是屡见不鲜了。


Today, the United Nations estimates that approximately 125 million people are in need of humanitarian aid – a number that increases every year.	今天，联合国估测约1. 25亿民众需要人道主义援助——而且这个数字每年都在增加。


More than 60 million people – half of them children – are currently displaced as a result of violence or conflict.	超过6000万民众——其中半数是儿童——目前因为暴力事件或冲突而流离失所。


In the past decade alone, the cost of humanitarian aid has increased 600%, making it practically unsustainable.	仅在过去10年中，人道主义援助的成本就增长了600%，致使这项工作几乎陷入难以为继的窘境。


With this concern in mind, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has convened a World Humanitarian Summit, the first in the UN’s 60-year history.	带着对这个问题的担忧，联合国秘书长潘基文召开了联合国60年历史上的首届世界人道主义峰会。 5月23至24日在伊斯坦布尔举行的会议和会谈将涉及人道主义议程的五大核心项目：预防并结束冲突；


The meetings and talks taking place in Istanbul on May 23-24 will address the five core items comprising the Agenda for Humanity: preventing and ending conflicts; defending humanitarian norms; reducing displacement, protecting women and girls, and providing education in conflict zones; reinforcing national and local capacities to provide aid; and increasing investment in human development.	减少流离失所、保护妇女女童以及在冲突地区提供教育服务； 加强国家和地方的援助提供能力；


While the needs caused by natural disasters (some related to climate change) or epidemics are pressing, those related to conflicts are no less urgent.	尽管自然灾害或传染病的援助需求非常迫切，但冲突造成的援助需求也同样急迫。


Given the length and the magnitude of many of today’s conflicts – in which great powers are frequently involved – a bold and comprehensive international commitment is urgently needed for prevention and humanitarian response.	考虑到今天武装冲突的时间跨度和严重性——当今的冲突往往涉及大国——迫切需要作出预防和人道主义响应方面的大胆而全面的国际承诺。


In addition to heads of state and government from all over the world, the summit will bring together civil-society and private-sector organizations, because, when it comes to meeting humanitarian needs, everyone must be involved.	除来自世界各地的元首和政府，本次峰会将汇集民间社团和私营行业组织，因为在满足人道主义需求问题上人人有责。


But while the responsibility for upholding humanitarian norms does not concern only governments, they are essential in enforcing them.	但虽然捍卫人道主义准则的责任不能仅仅由政府承担，但政府却在执行过程中扮演了至关重要的角色。


In order to prevent humanitarian disasters resulting from war, the first priority is to respect the norms aimed at safeguarding civilians.	为防止战争造成的人道主义灾难，首要任务是尊重旨在保护平民的各项准则。


The Geneva Conventions concern those people and areas that should remain beyond the scope of armed conflict and that should be guaranteed aid.	《日内瓦公约》所规定的人员和领域应当超越武装冲突的影响，并确保得到切实的援助。


The fact that non-governmental actors, such as terrorists, disregard this law of war should under no circumstances be a pretext for countries to behave similarly.	恐怖分子等非政府行为主体无视这一战争法则的事实不应在任何情况下成为国家采取类似行动的借口。


What is at stake are both the lives of thousands of civilians and the enduring effectiveness of the multilateral system, by which these norms have been agreed and mechanisms to enforce them established.	这关系到成千上万平民的生命安全和多边体系的长期有效性，人们据此达成了上述准则并制定了执行机制。


On May 3, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for the protection of civilians in conflicts and strongly condemning recent violations of international humanitarian law.	5月3日，联合国安理会通过决议呼吁保护冲突中的平民，并针对最近违反国际人道主义法的行为进行了强烈谴责。


These messages must be implemented concretely, especially among members of the Security Council.	这些措施必须具体落到实处，联合国安理会成员国尤其应当做出榜样。


This summit must, at a minimum, serve as a powerful call to states to uphold the established norms, but also to impel others to do so.	此次峰会至少应当有效提醒国家执行既定法则，并要推动别国也这么做。


If we are to avoid losing a century of progress in promoting respect for human dignity, we must recognize that a country’s responsibility cannot be limited to its own behavior in conflicts; it should extend to the actions of its allies.	如果要避免在促进人类尊严问题上失去百年的进步，我们就必须认识到国家的责任不仅限于其自身的冲突行为； 各国还应当督促盟国的行动。


We embraced these norms to avoid barbarism; if we want them to be respected, we need unflinching commitments from the great powers, such as a pledge not to support or remain in coalitions with those who hold humanitarian norms in contempt.	我们接受这些原则是为了避免野蛮主义； 如果希望上述原则得到尊重，就需要大国作出坚定不移的承诺，比如承诺不支持藐视人道主义准则的行为主体或者继续与之结盟。


One of the measures, proposed in the summit’s preparatory report and aimed at effective enforcement of the norms, is the creation of a specialized monitoring body.	峰会预备报告提议旨在上述准则有效执行的举措之一是成立专门的监督机构。


Moreover, all countries should recognize the authority of the international courts, such as the International Criminal Court, to facilitate prosecution of those who violate humanitarian law.	不仅如此，所有国家均应承认国际刑事法庭等国际法庭的权威性，以便对违反人道主义法则的人提出起诉。


The report also supports a request made some time ago: that the Security Council’s five permanent members renounce their right to veto when measures to avoid mass atrocities are being decided.	该报告还支持了一项前段时间提出的联合国安理会五大常任理事国在就避免大规模暴行问题做出��策时放弃行使否决权的请求。


This proposal is crucial to making the Security Council an essential and effective body in matters of global security.	上述提案在允许安理会在全球安全事务中发挥重要及有效作用的过程中至关重要。


It is vital that countries take advantage of the opportunity offered by the Istanbul summit to reaffirm their legal commitments to safeguard civilians in conflicts and to expedite the development of new mechanisms to prevent the victims of catastrophes from being abandoned.	重要的是各国抓住伊斯坦布尔首脑会议赋予的这次机遇重申其对保护身陷冲突民众的法律承诺并加快制定全新机制防止抛弃灾难的受害者。


Respecting the most fundamental norms that we have given ourselves to guarantee the protection of humanity is a serious matter.	尊重我们为自身制定的保障人道主义保护的最根本准则是一项严肃的任务。


It is our task as citizens to demand that our national leaders uphold these principles, so that the agreements reached in Istanbul do not remain utopian wishes.	作为公民，我们有义务要求国家领导人坚持上述原则，只有这样在伊斯坦布尔达成的协议才不会沦为一场乌托邦式的美梦。


The protection of human life – even in the midst of war and disasters – should be a concern for all of us, as global citizens.	身为全球公民，保护人类生命——即使在战争和灾难等极端条件下——一也应当成为我们所关注的任务。


Over the next three years, progress toward fulfilling the commitments made at the upcoming summit will be evaluated.	未来三年内，我们将对即将召开的峰会上履行承诺所取得的进步进行评估。


During this time, we must not let ourselves become accustomed to images of people drowning when they flee persecution, or hospitals and refugee camps razed.	在此期间，我们一定不能让自己习惯于逃避迫害者被溺死的画面，也不能允许医院和难民营被夷为平地。


The measure of human progress is whether such behavior is regarded – by anyone – as normal or inevitable.	衡量人类进步的标准是上述行为是否被任何人视为是正常或不可避免的。


The Refugee Problem in New York	纽约的难民问题


NEW YORK – Every September, many of the world’s presidents, prime ministers, and foreign ministers descend on New York City for a few days.	纽约—每年9月，全世界许多总统、总理和外交部长都会来纽约市访问几天。


They come to mark the start of the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly, to give speeches that tend to receive more attention at home than they do in the hall, and – in the diplomatic equivalent of speed dating – to pack as many meetings as is humanly possible into their schedules.	他们是为了参加联合国大会年会开幕式而来，在开幕式上发表演讲，以期在国内获得比在大厅中演讲更多的关注，并且——在这个外交“速配约会”中——在精力所及范围内将尽可能多的会晤装进日程表。


There is also a tradition of designating a specific issue or problem for special attention, and this year will be no exception.	还有一个传统是指定一个具体问题吸引特别关注，今年也不例外。


September 19 will be devoted to discussing the plight of refugees (as well as migrants) and what more can and should be done to help them.	9月19日将专门留给讨论难民（以及移民）困境以及还能做些什么帮助难民和移民。


It is a good choice, as there are now an estimated 21 million refugees in the world.	这是一个很好的选择，因为现在全世界有大约2,100万难民。


Originally defined as those who leave their countries because of fear of persecution, refugees now also include those forced to cross borders because of conflict and violence.	难民的原始定义是因为害怕迫害而离开祖国的人，现在，因为冲突和暴力而被迫穿越国境的人也被视为难民。


This number is up sharply from just five years ago, owing primarily to chaos across the Middle East, with Syria alone the source of nearly one in every four refugees in the world today.	难民数字的激增不过五年，主要是因为整个中东的混乱局面所赐，其中叙利亚一国就占了全世界难民的近四分之一。


The attention of the UN and its member states does not reflect only the increase in numbers or heightened humanitarian concern over the suffering of the men, women, and children who have been forced to leave their homes and their countries.	联合国及其成员国的关注不仅体现了被迫背井离乡的男性、女性和儿童数量的增加和突出的人道主义问题。


It also stems from the impact of the flow of refugees on destination countries, where it has upended politics in one country after another.	关注也是因为难民流对流入国的影响——一个又一个难民目的地国家政治陷入混乱。


In Europe, the rise of political opposition to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Brexit vote, and the growing appeal of nationalist parties on the right can all be attributed to real and imagined fears stemming from refugees.	在欧洲，对德国总理默克尔政治反对的兴盛、英国脱欧投票以及右翼民族主义政党号召力日益增强都可以归因于源自难民的现实和想象的担忧。


The economic and social burden on countries such as Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Pakistan, all of which are being asked to house large numbers of refugees, is immense.	约旦、土耳其、黎巴嫩和巴基斯坦等国家的经济和社会不堪重负——它们都被要求接收为数巨大的难民。


There are also security concerns about whether some of the refugees are actual or potential terrorists.	还有关于是否有一些难民实际上或有可能成为恐怖分子的安全担忧。


In principle, there are four ways to do something meaningful about the refugee problem.	理论上，就难民问题可以有四种办法做一些有意义的事。


The first and most fundamental is to take steps to ensure that people need not flee their countries or, if they have, to create conditions that permit them to return home.	首先也是最基本的是采取措施确保人们不需要逃离祖国，或者，对于已经逃离祖国的人，创造可以让他们回家的条件。


But this would require that countries do more to end the fighting in places like Syria.	但这需要各国花更大的力气结束叙利亚等地的战乱。


Alas, there is no consensus on what this would require, and even where some agreement exists, sufficient will to commit the required military and economic resources does not.	可惜，对于这需要什么，人们还没有形成共识，而即使在存在一些一致意见的地方，也缺乏做出必要的军事和经济资源承诺的意愿。


The result is that the number of refugees in the world will grow.	结果是世界难民数量还将增加。


The second way to help refugees is to ensure their safety and wellbeing.	第二个帮助难民的方法是确保他们的安全与福利。


Refugees are particularly vulnerable when they are on the move.	难民在迁移是特别脆弱。


And after they arrive, many fundamental needs – including health, education, and physical safety – must be met.	而在他们到达目的地后，许多基本需求——包括健康、教育和人身安全——也必须得到满足。


Here, the challenge for host states is to guarantee adequate provision of essential services.	在这里，接收国的挑战是保证足够的基本服务供给。


A third component of any comprehensive approach to refugees involves allocating economic resources to help deal with the burden.	全面的难民方针的第三个要素是分配经济资源帮助应对负担。


The United States and Europe (both European Union member governments and the EU itself) are the largest contributors to the UN High Commission on Refugees, but many other governments are unwilling to commit their fair share.	美国和欧洲（欧盟各成员国政府以及欧盟本身）是联合国难民高级委员会的最大出资者，但许多其他国家政府不愿意承担公平份额。


They ought to be named and shamed.	他们应该被点名批评。


The final aspect of any refugee program involves finding places for them to go.	难民方案的最后一个角度是确定让难民去哪里。


The political reality, though, is that most governments are unwilling to commit to take in any specific number or percentage of the world’s refugees.	但政治现实是大部分政府不愿意承诺具体数字或占世界难民的半分比。


Again, those who do their fair share (or more) should be singled out for praise – and those who do not for criticism.	在这方面，承担（或超额承担）了公平份额的国家应该点名表扬——没有做到的点名批评。


All of which brings us back to New York City.	所有这些让我们回到纽约市。


Sadly, there is little reason to be optimistic.	悲哀的是，找不到乐观的理由。


The 22-page draft “outcome document” to be voted on at the September 19 High Level meeting – long on generalities and principles and short on specifics and policy – would do little, if anything, to improve refugees’ lot.	将在9月19日的高规格会议上投票的22页“结果档案”草案——就大纲和原则来说它太长，就细节和政策来说它又太短——无法大幅改善难民状况。


A meeting scheduled for the next day, to be hosted by US President Barack Obama, may accomplish something on the funding side, but little else.	第二天，美国总统奥巴马将主持一次会议，这次会议将在融资方面完成一些成果，但仅限于此。


The refugee issue provides yet another glaring example of the gap between what needs to be done to meet a global challenge and what the world is prepared to do.	难民问题为解决全球挑战所需要做的与世界所准备做的之间的差距提供了又一个触目惊心的例子。


Alas, the same holds true for most such challenges, from terrorism and climate change to weapons proliferation and public health.	可惜，大部分这类挑战都是如此，从恐怖主义和气候变化到武器扩散和公共卫生概莫能外。


We can expect to hear a lot of talk in New York next month about the international community’s responsibility to do more to help existing refugees and address the conditions driving them to flee their homelands.	可以预计，在下个月的纽约，我们可以听到很多关于国际社会做更多的事帮助现有难民和解决迫使他们流离失所的问题的责任的说辞。


But the cold truth is that there is little “community” at the international level.	但冷冰冰的事实是不存在国际层面的“社会”。


So long as that remains the case, millions of men, women, and children will face a dangerous present and a future of little prospect.	只要这一点不改变，数百万男性、女性和儿童仍将面临危险和黯淡的未来。


Obama’s Cuban Breakthrough	奥巴马的古巴突破


MADRID – Too frequently, leaders become hostages, rather than shapers, of their sociopolitical environment.	马德里—领导人常常沦为他们所处社会政治环境的人质而不是决定者。


Too seldom does the world see history-changing steps like Richard Nixon’s trip to China in 1972 or Egyptian President Anwar el-Sadat’s visit to Jerusalem in 1977.	世界极少见到1972年尼克松访问中国或1977年埃及总统萨达特（Anwar el-Sadat）访问耶路撒冷这样的改变历史的举动。


That is why conflicts like that between Cuba and the United States persist for so long.	正因如此，古巴和美国这样的冲突才会持续如此之久。


For more than a half-century, no US president was willing to pay the political price for admitting failure and resuming diplomatic relations with the island.	半个多世纪以来，没有一位美国总统愿意付出政治代价承认失败并重新与这个岛国建立外交关系。


But, as his tenure enters the home stretch, Barack Obama seems to have been released from such constraints.	但是，随着任期的临近，奥巴马似乎冲破了这一束缚。


A US president can challenge political constraints only by taking on powerful lobbies.	美国总统要想挑战政治约束，只能通过强大的游说。


President Jimmy Carter’s success in mediating the Israeli-Egyptian peace settlement, and his bold call for a “Palestinian homeland” (making him the first US president to do so), had much to do with him being deaf to Jewish voices and organizations.	卡特总统成功牵线了以色列-埃及和解，并大胆地喊出了“巴勒斯坦故土”（他也成为第一个如此称呼的美国总统），在很大程度上都要归因于他无视犹太人的声音和组织。


Likewise, President George H.W. Bush could not have dragged the recalcitrant Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir to the Madrid Peace Conference in October 1991 had he not been willing to take on what he described as “some powerful political forces” made up of “a thousand lobbyists on the Hill.”	类似地，1991年10月，如果老布什不愿拿出他描述为由“一千名国会山游说者”所组成的“一些强大的政治力量”，他就无法迫使顽固的以色列总理沙米尔（Yitzhak Shamir）出席马德里和平会议。


Obama is no stranger to pressure – and opposition – from interest groups.	奥巴马对于来自利益集团的压力——以及反对——并不陌生。


But, with the end of his presidency in view, he finally seems to recognize that securing his legacy requires overcoming not just interest groups, but the structure of interest-group politics in America.	但是，随着总统任期的临近，他终于开始认识到，要想留下遗产，就不但要克服利益集团，还要克服美国利益集团政治的结构。


He is now at loggerheads with the Republican congressional majority over his landmark climate-change agreement with China and his controversial amnesty plan for illegal immigrants.	如今，在他里程碑式的对华气候变化协议和饱受争议的非法移民大赦计划上，他已经与共和党国会多数针锋相对。


Likewise, if Obama still hopes to be remembered as the redeemer of the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he will have to take on the American Israel Public Affairs Committee next.	类似地，如果奥巴马仍希望作为以巴冲突两国方案的救世主形象被铭记，他就必须把美国以巴事务委员会（American Israel Public Affairs Committee，AIPAC）放一放。


This would represent a departure from early in his presidency, when, in his bid to broker a settlement, he failed to confront AIPAC.	这将偏离其就任总统初期的方向，当时，他所提出的和解方案没有与AIPAC发生冲突。


Perhaps his effort to change America’s Cuba policy – which means challenging the highly disciplined lobby opposing the rule of Fidel Castro and his brother Raúl – will show the way.	也许他改变美国古巴政策的尝试能为他探明道路——这一尝试意味着挑战反对菲德尔·卡斯特罗及其弟弟劳尔·卡斯特罗统治的立场坚定的游说团体。


In the meantime, normalizing relations with Cuba could have far-reaching benefits.	与此同时，对古巴关系正常化可能带来意义深远的收益。


Throughout Latin America, Cold War-era resentment of America is likely to ease, and its standing may improve in countries like Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and especially Venezuela, which has been a Cuban ideological satellite and the Castro regime’s major economic lifeline.	纵观拉丁美洲，冷战时期的反美情绪可能已有所松懈，玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔、尼加拉瓜等国家的立场可能有所改善，特别是委内瑞拉——它一直是古巴的意识形态卫星，也是卡斯特罗政权的主要经济命脉。


Indeed, it would be unsustainable for Venezuela, nearly bankrupt owing to falling oil prices, to remain on its anti-American course, while the Castro brothers themselves have reconciled with the “gringos.”	事实上，拜石油价格下跌所赐，委内瑞拉已接近破财产，无法再坚持反美立场，而卡斯特罗兄弟本身也与“外国佬”做出了妥协。


Conspicuously, Latin America’s last Marxist insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC), declared a unilateral cease-fire just hours after the announcement that the US and Cuba would restore diplomatic ties.	显然，拉丁美洲最后的马克思主义反叛集团——哥伦比亚革命武装力量（Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia，FARC）在美国与古巴重建外交关系声明发出几小时后就单方面宣布停火。


Over the last two years, Cuba has hosted peace negotiations between FARC and the Colombian government, with full US support.	过去两年来，古巴一直是FARC与哥伦比亚政府谈判的举办地，并获得了美国的全力支持。


As the world’s biggest consumer of illicit drugs supplied by Colombian producers, the US has a vital interest in a peace deal, which could help reduce, if not end, the traffic.	美国是哥伦比亚非法毒品的最大消费国，和平协议对美国来说有着巨大的意义，有助于减少甚至杜绝毒品走私。


To be sure, though America’s policy toward Cuba has been one of the Cold War’s last vestiges, Obama’s move will not be a game changer in America’s competition with China and Russia to shape the new world order.	平心而论，尽管美国对古巴政策是冷战最后的痕迹之一，但奥巴马的举动无法成为美国与中国和俄罗斯的新世界秩序之争的局面改变因素。


But it certainly boosts Obama’s international credibility and improves his prospects of deterring other global rivals.	但这显然提高了奥巴马的国际信誉，也增加了他威慑其他全球对手的可能。


Suddenly, his tough line on Iran and Russia sounds more credible.	突然间，他对伊朗和俄罗斯的强硬路线更加可信了。


Cuba also offers an opportunity to expand the reach of Western liberal values.	古巴还是一次扩张西方自由价值的机会。


By maintaining Cold War-era financial subsidies to Cuba, Russia has tried to ensure that the island remained a geopolitical flashpoint, as it was for the Soviet Union.	俄罗斯通过继续对古巴提供冷战时期的金融补贴试图确保这个岛国继续充��地缘政治热点，就像在苏联时代一样。


This is no longer an option.	这已不再是一项选择。


In fact, even if the US were not attempting to normalize relations, Russia’s current economic woes probably would have doomed its long-standing – and already much-reduced – support for the Castro government.	事实上，即使美国不试图正常化与古巴的关系，俄罗斯当前的经济困境也有可能使其对卡斯特罗政府的长期支持难以为继——目前俄罗斯的直吹已经大幅缩水。


Normalization of relations with the US is key to liberalization in Cuba.	对美关系正常化是古巴自由化的关键。


After all, such changes are best served not by imposing stifling sanctions, or through military “shock and awe” tactics, as in Iraq, but by socioeconomic improvement and diplomatic engagement by external powers.	毕竟，如此变化的最佳促进办法不是严厉制裁或军事“震慑”（shock and awe）策略（如伊拉克），而是社会经济改善和外部力量的外交接触。


Indeed, predictions that Cuba might now shift toward a Chinese-style model of political autocracy and economic opening might be accurate only in the short term.	事实上，认为古巴可能转向中国式的政治极权和经济开放模式也许只具有短期的正确性。


In the longer term, the end of the Castro era, together with improved relations with the US, is likely to bring about a repeat of Spain’s transition toward full-fledged liberal democracy after the fall of Francisco Franco.	从长期看，卡斯特罗时代的结束加上对美关系的改善可能带来类似于西班牙在弗朗哥倒台后所走过的向完全的自由民主的转型。


In Cuba, Obama has shown that transcending the politics of confrontation and sanctions requires diplomatic initiative.	在古巴，奥巴马已经证明，超越冲突和制裁政治需要外交努力。


It is not too late for him to address other longstanding tensions, such as with Iran and North Korea – not to mention the festering conflict between Israel and Palestine – with similar boldness.	对他来说，以类似的果断态度解决其他长期紧张局势为时未晚，比如与伊朗和朝鲜的对峙——更不用说以色列和巴勒斯坦之间愈演愈烈的冲突了。


And, of course, he should work to mitigate the risk that Russia creates a permanent zone of military tension along its borders with NATO.	当然，他还应该致力于降低俄罗斯在其与北约的接壤地带建立永久的军事紧张区。


Ultimately, world peace is in the hands of leaders.	说到底，世界和平取决于领导人。


History honors those who dare to challenge the politics of inertia by opening, through inspired diplomacy, new paths to progress.	历史会铭记那些敢于通过创新外交开启新进步之路挑战惯性政治的人。


Uniting Asia	亚洲一体化


North Korea’s nuclear ambitions seem to have died down, at least for now.	北韩的核野心似乎已经偃旗息鼓，至少暂时如此。


The Six-Party Talks have, at long last, succeeded – thanks, apparently, to China’s solid opposition to the nuclearization of northeast Asia.	六方会谈终于取得成功—显然应该归功于中国对东北亚核武化的坚决反对。


Under the aegis of the Six-Party umbrella, the United States and North Korea have even held the bilateral talks that North Korea’s Kim Jong Il has long coveted.	在六方的全力支持下，美国和北韩甚至进行了金正日一直渴望的双边会谈。


So, for now, northeast Asia is temporarily calmer and less unstable than it has been for almost two decades.	因此，就目前来看，东北亚暂时进入了近二十年来最为平静和稳定的状态。


Yet it remains a potential flashpoint.	但它仍然是个潜在的闪点。


During this time of tension, an increasingly self-confident South Korea began to chart a course independent of its American patron.	在这一非常时期，日益自信的南韩却开始追寻一条独立于其美国庇护人的道路。


In November 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused the South Korean government of having enriched a tiny amount of uranium – to a level close to what could be used in an atomic weapon.	2005年11月，国际原子能机构(IAEA)指控南韩政府增加了少量的铀储备—使其接近可以制造核武器的水平。


The government denied this, claiming that the experiments were conducted without its knowledge by academic researchers “for scientific interest.”	南韩政府拒不承认，声称相关的实验是在政府不知情的情况下由科研人员为“科学目的”而进行的。


South Korea’s evolving foreign policy also may involve moving closer to China, as Korean nationalists join the Chinese in resisting Japan’s rival claims to potential hydrocarbon deposits in the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan.	南韩演进中的对外政策可能也包括与中国走得更近。 韩国的民族主义者在对抗日本对东中国海和日本海的碳氢化合物储藏的所有权要求的过程中与中国人同声同气。


New generations of South Koreans, who have no personal recollections of – and perhaps only casual interest in – the Korean War, apparently resent what they regard as America’s undermining South Korea’s “sunshine policy” toward North Korea.	对朝鲜战争没有个人记忆或兴趣不大的新几代韩国人显然对美国在南韩对北韩的“阳光政策”中作梗的行为感到憎恶。


For Japan, North Korea’s missile capability is the most immediate concern.	对日本而言，北韩的导弹潜力是最需要担心的问题。


A sweeping defense review that Japan recently carried out reaffirms that it will continue to oppose its immediate neighbors’ possession of nuclear arms.	日本最近进行的一次大规模防务评估再一次确认了它将继续反对其最近的邻国拥有核武器的政策。


Of course, Japan itself already possesses both nuclear technology and solid-fuel missiles.	当然，日本本身已经拥有了核技术和固体燃料导弹。


But the core of Japan’s defense strategy remains strong ties with the US, not military self-sufficiency.	但日本防卫战略的核心仍然是与美国的紧密联系而不是自给自足。


All in all, the calmer situation in Northeast Asia might seem to be a fragile basis for creating long-term peace and prosperity in the region.	总而言之，东北亚较为平静的局势似乎为建立该地区长期的和平与繁荣打下了一个并不坚实的基础。


But the basic lesson from Western Europe, whose greatest powers, France and Germany, fought three great wars in 70 years, is that the only lasting solution to conflict is to embed neighboring countries in dense networks of economic, political, and security relationships, and in regional institutions that serve their mutual interests.	但来自西欧的基本教训（其德、法两个大国在70年中打了三场大战）说明冲突的持久解决之道是以稠密的经济、政治和安全关系网络以及为双边利益服务的地区性机构将邻近国家紧密联系起来。


Of course, the creators of today’s united Europe did not start by calling for national sovereignty to be abrogated.	当然，当今一体化的欧洲的缔造者们并没有将废除国家主权作为起点。


Indeed, Robert Schuman once declared that “Europe will not be built in a day, nor as part of an overall design.	的确，Robert Schuman曾宣称“欧洲的建立决不会是一日之功，也不会是某项总体设计的一部分。


It will be built through the practical achievements that first create a sense of common purpose.”	它要通过现实的成就先营造一种共同的使命感来实现。 ”


Accordingly, what became the European Union started inconspicuously, with the integration of French and German industries that had been most directly associated with war production – coal and steel.	正因为如此，成就当今欧盟的事件也是以一种毫不引人注目的方式发端，即法国和德国与战争生产直接相关的煤钢产业的整合。


Only after economic integration had progressed did the first serious efforts at political integration take place.	正是在经济一体化进行到一定阶段时，欧洲才开始了在政治一体化方面最初的严肃努力。


In today’s East Asia, too, the market is fostering integration.	在当今的东亚，市场也正在孕育着一体化。


Now that the 10 southeast Asian states have been gathered into ASEAN – and are promulgating an ASEAN Charter – the concept of an East Asian Economic Grouping (EAEG) that would incorporate ASEAN and China, Japan, and (a presumably unified and nuclear-free) Korea is moving forward steadily.	既然10个东南亚国家已经结合为东盟（ASEAN）--并正在出台“东盟宪章”—那么包括东盟、中国、日本和（一个假定统一和无核的）朝鲜的“东亚经济集团” （EAEG）的概念也正在稳步推进。


The initial phase of this grand ambition, a free-trade area (FTA) between ASEAN and China, began in 2004 and should be completed by 2010.	这一宏伟计划的第一阶段是东盟与中国之间的自由贸易区。 该阶段在2004年启动，将于2010年完成。


Concurrently, an FTA comprising ASEAN, Japan, and also with South Korea is being negotiated.	与此同时，一个包括东盟、日本和南韩的自由贸易区的谈判也正在进行中。


Since 2005, India, too, has expressed interest in such an arrangement with ASEAN-10.	自2005年以来，印度也对与东盟十国的类似安排表达了兴趣。


But northeast Asia, alone among the Asian regions, has no regional organization.	但东北亚在亚洲地区中却是唯一没有地区性组织的。


This is why it needs a concert of powers to sustain its fragile stability.	这也就是为什么它需要集结力量来维持其脆弱的稳定。


North and South Korea must begin the work of reconciliation and community-building on their own initiative, as France and Germany did in 1952.	南北韩必须依靠自己的努力开始彼此谅解和共同体建设的工作，就如同法德两国在1952年所做的那样。


Economics must once again outflank politics, with trade, investment, tourism, and technology transfer intensifying across the 38th Parallel.	政治目标必须再一次通过经济手段迂回实现，即通过跨越38度线的不断强化的贸易、投资、旅游和技术的转移。


Meanwhile, the instruments for a larger Asia-Pacific economic community are already in place, starting with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, with the ultimate goal being to meet the imperative for durable peace and security.	与此同时，为一个更大的亚太经济共同体的建立而做的安排已经到位：以亚太经济合作(APEC)论坛为起点，以满足持久和平与安全为终极目标。


Over the next decade, our statesmen must replace the Pax Americana that has enforced stability in the Asia-Pacific region with a Pax Asia-Pacifica, in which the major countries and sub-regional blocs contribute to and share in the maintenance of Asia-Pacific security in the face of our common geopolitical threats.	在未来十年，我们的政治家们必须以亚洲—太平洋地区主导下的世界和平来替代将稳定强加于亚太地区的美国强权主导下的世界和平。 在新的框架下，主要国家和副地区集团在面临我们共同的地缘政治威胁时会共同担负起维护亚太安全的责任。


These include international terrorism, nuclear proliferation, the instability arising out of the Arab-Israel conflict and the Iraq war, and the weakness of the United Nations.	这些威胁包括国际恐怖主义、核扩散、阿拉伯-以色列冲突及伊拉克战争所引发的不稳定因素以及联合国的软弱。


As regional neighbors and partners, we should exploit the convergence of interests that the US, Japan, China, India, Russia, ASEAN, Canada, a unified, nuclear weapon-free Korea, Pakistan, Australia-New Zealand, and others share – just as Western European exploited the Cold War stalemate between the US and the Soviet Union to consolidate and expand the EU.	作为地区的邻国和伙伴，我们应该充分利用美国、日本、中国、印度、俄罗斯、东盟、加拿大、一个统一并无核化的朝鲜、巴基斯坦、澳大利亚—新西兰和其他国家共有的利益融合—正如西欧利用了美国与苏联之间的冷战僵局整合并扩大了欧盟那样。


America’s overstretched military provides the irrefutable rationale for a deep restructuring of Asia-Pacific security.	美国延伸过长的军事部署为亚太安全的深���重组提供了不可辩驳的动因。


But trans-Pacific peace must be based on a balance not of power but of mutual benefit.	但跨太平洋的安全必须建立在双方利益平衡而不是实力平衡的基础之上。


Clearly, this will involve burden-sharing by all nations in the Asia-Pacific region, and a cooperative understanding among the most affluent and powerful countries in our part of the world – the US, Japan, China, and South Korea.	显然，这将会包括亚太地区的所有国家共挑重担，以及该地区最富有及强大的国家—美国、日本、中国和韩国—之间的合作谅解。


Uniting Europe’s Fleets	把欧洲的舰队联合起来


PARIS – Of Europe’s 23 naval forces, only France’s possesses a fully operational aircraft carrier, the 40,000-ton flagship Charles de Gaulle.	发自巴黎——在欧洲各国的23支海军中，只有法国拥有一艘可以执行全部任务的航空母舰：排水量4万吨的旗舰夏尔·戴高乐号。


Although the United Kingdom is currently building two carriers of its own, the Royal Navy is years away from the capability to deliver instant airpower from the sea.	虽然英国目前正在建造两艘航空母舰，但皇家海军距离拥有立刻从海上输送空中力量的能力还有数年时间。


Nevertheless, Europe is reasonably equipped to defend itself against external threats. It is less able, however, to withstand looming budget cuts.	此外欧洲虽然理应武装自己去防御外部威胁，但却难以承受不断加大的预算削减。


Europe’s maritime-security strategy has long been founded on two key tenets. First, sea-borne trade routes, which account for nearly 85% of the European Union’s total exports and imports, must be kept free and safe.	欧洲的海上安全策略一直以来基于两大关键原则：首先，占欧盟总进出口量近85%的海上贸易通道必须保持自由通畅和安全。


And, second, European countries must maintain the capacity to deal with any major security crisis.	其二，欧洲国家必须保有应对任何重大安全危机的能力。


International events highlight these priorities’ relevance.	一系列国际危机事件突显了这些重点的相关性。


For example, rising tensions with Iran could compel Europe to deploy its navies to form a blockade around the Persian Gulf, in order to ensure the transit of oil.	例如与伊朗不断升温的紧张关系可能迫使欧洲部署海军对波斯湾附近区域进行封锁以保证石油运输。


Similarly, piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and the Indian Ocean, particularly along the coast of Somalia, threatens Europe’s maritime activities, including its extensive sea-borne commerce.	类似的还有几内亚湾和印度洋的海盗行为（尤其是索马里沿岸）已经威胁到了欧洲的海上活动，包括其大规模的海上商业贸易。


Indeed, growing concerns over piracy led to the launch in 2008 of the EU’s first naval response within the framework of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) – Operation Atalanta.	事实上，对海盗行为关注度的不断增加促使欧盟在2008年启动了在《共同安全和防御政策》（Common Security and Defense Policy）框架下的首次海军行动——阿塔兰特（Atalanta）行动。


The operation, held annually and comprising 5-10 combat vessels, 1-2 auxiliary ships, and 2-4 maritime-patrol aircraft, includes forces from 26 European navies, and has undoubtedly helped to discourage, if not end, pirate attacks.	该行动每年执行，规模包括5-10艘战斗舰船，1-2艘补给船以及2-4架海洋巡逻飞机，成员来自26个欧洲国家海军，虽然无法彻底消灭海盗袭击，但无疑起到了威慑作用。


Atalanta’s success, combined with European naval forces’ leading role in last year’s operations in Libya, shows that Europe possesses much of the naval infrastructure that it needs to ensure its maritime security.	阿塔兰特行动的成功，再加上欧洲海军在去年利比亚军事行动中的带头作用，都显示出欧洲具备确保海上安全所需的绝大部分海军实力。


But the Libyan crisis also revealed that Europe’s naval security is limited and easily overstretched.	但利比亚危机同时也暴露出欧洲海军安全力量有限且容易过度透支的缺陷。


More than half of French naval forces were deployed during the Libyan crisis, during which their normal activity rate increased by 10-40% – at a cost of €40 million ($50 million), not to mention disruptions of standard training and maintenance.	超过一半的法国海军力量都被派往介入利比亚危机，它们的正常行动频率也因此增加了10~40%——带来超过4亿欧元（5亿美元）的费用支出，更别提对标准训练和维护日程所造成的干扰了。


Naval assets are not only expensive to build; they are extremely costly to operate, as each unit requires specialized equipment and highly trained personnel.	海军资产不但需要昂贵的建造费用；


As a result, navies are often among the first to be targeted by cuts in defense budgets.	更需要投入巨资进行运作，因为每一个单位都需要特殊装备以及受过训练的人员，因此海军往往都是国防预算削减中首先遭殃的那个。


And yet, while naval deployments do not always end conflicts, they are a vital component of the military response to any crisis, and are critical to guaranteeing Europe’s security.	而虽然海军部署有时无法制止冲突，它们却是对任何危机的军事回应中不可或缺的部分，也是维护欧洲安全的关键。


Given this, it is imperative that European governments adopt cost-cutting measures that do not jeopardize their naval assets.	有见及此，在欧洲各国政府实施支出削减方案时也不应染指本国的海军资产。


First, the EU should take a leading role in maximizing the efficiency of each member state’s navy, by creating mechanisms that would facilitate the exchange of information between governments, maritime agencies, and navies.	首先，欧盟应该在最大化各成员国海军的效能方面扮演带头角色，建立一些可以便利各国政府，各国海军机构和海军之间信息交流的机制。


Indeed, sound political decisions can achieve just as much as buying new ships – and at a far lower cost.	事实上，合理的政治决策可以取得和采购新舰船一样的效果，而且花费远比后者低廉。


Adopting a comprehensive legal framework would be a useful first step.	采用一个综合性法律框架可以是有益的第一步。


Indeed, improved coordination between countries would contribute to more cost-efficient use of resources and equipment.	事实，改善和提升各国之间合作状况将提高资源和设备的费效比。


Surveillance strategies, for example, are often more expensive than necessary, owing to poor communication.	比如说由于沟通不畅，各国用在海上监控策略上的支出往往比实际需求要高。


Information-sharing among Europe’s navies would also help to identify and fill existing gaps, thus paving the way for a more efficient European maritime-security infrastructure.	在各国海军之间的信息分享也有助于确定和填补现有的信息断点，并为更高效的欧洲海上安全架构铺平了道路。


At the same time, in order to maintain a security framework fit to confront any conceivable security threat, Europe’s governments should preserve the entire spectrum of their naval assets.	与此同时，为了维持一个适合应对任何可预见安全威胁的的安全框架，欧洲各国政府应该保留全套各类型的海军资产。


Mothballing ships for the sake of saving money could have dire consequences for Europe’s security.	为了省钱而封存舰船可能会对欧洲安全造成可怕的后果。


Rather than focusing on shrinking the size of existing fleets, European leaders should focus on getting more out of them.	此外与其将注意力放在缩减现有舰队的规模之上，欧洲领导人们应当更注重从中挖掘出更多的潜力。


To this end, Europe’s navies and maritime agencies should merge their capabilities, especially those related to defense and security missions.	为了实现这一目标，各国海军和海军机构必须将各自的力量——尤其是与国防和安全任务相关的力量——合并在一起。


This would bring massive savings, which could be reinvested in technological advances, thereby further equipping Europe’s navies to meet future threats.	这将节省���额开支，而且这些钱也可以重新投入到科技进步中去，并因此进一步武装欧洲海军去应对未来的威胁。


Accurately assessing maritime operations’ success requires time and care, because naval capabilities cannot be built up quickly.	准确评估海上行动的成绩需要时间和细致的工作，因为海军实力不是短期内就能建立起来的。


While reducing such capabilities might seem like an expedient way to cut costs, European governments must not lose sight of their long-term security priorities.	当裁剪这些力量看上去似乎是削减开支的捷径之时，欧洲各国政府切不可无视自身的长远安全重点。


Above all, European leaders must promote increased naval cooperation.	综上所述，欧洲领导人必须不断推动海军合作。


After all, naval capacities are essential to the projection of European power – and crucial to maintaining geopolitical stability around the world.	毕竟海军实力是欧洲力量投射的必要组成部分——对维护全球地缘政治稳定也非常关键。


Unity is Not Enough	仅仅有团结是不够的


The reconciliation between the leaders of the two major Palestinian groups, Hamas and Fatah, that has just been negotiated in Saudi Arabia is being hailed as a major political breakthrough.	巴勒斯坦两大组织哈马斯和法塔赫领导人之间在沙特阿拉伯谈判达成的和解被誉为一项重要的政治突破。


But the national unity government created as a result of this agreement faces many daunting challenges.	但是，这一协议产生的民族团结政府面临许多险峻的挑战。


The agreement needs to be followed by an effort to end the economic and administrative siege of Palestine, as well as serious peace talks with Israel aimed at ending the 39-year occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.	这一协议需要跟进，即努力结束对巴勒斯坦的经济和行政制裁以及与以色列展开严肃认真的谈判以结束对约旦河西岸以及加沙地带长达39年的占领。


At home, the new government needs to pay its civil servants, restore law and order, and end the chaos that has become the norm in the Palestinian territories.	在巴勒斯坦国内，新政府需要支付其公务员的工资，恢复秩序，并且结束已经在巴勒斯坦领土司空见惯的混乱局面。


The internal fighting in Palestine began in part as a result of the political impasse caused after Israel and the international community imposed an economic embargo on the Palestinian Authority.	巴勒斯坦的内斗部分起始于以色列和国际社会对巴勒斯坦权力机构实施经济禁运所造成的政治僵局。


This economic siege, zealously enforced even by Arab and Islamic banks, followed the new Hamas-led government’s refusal to accept the demand by the “quartet” – the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and Russia – that it recognize Israel, accept all previous agreements with Israel, and renounce terrorism.	新的哈马斯领导的政府拒绝接受中东四方，即美国、欧盟、联合国以及俄国提出的有关承认以色列、接受与以色列先前达成的所有协议以及放弃恐怖主义的要求导致了经济封锁。 这一经济封锁甚至得到了阿拉伯和伊斯兰银行的热情执行。


Palestinians complained that the international community acted unjustly, simply because they were unhappy with the result of a free and fair election in the Palestinian territories, which Hamas won overwhelmingly.	巴勒斯坦人抱怨说国际社会之所以办事不公，就是因为它们不满在巴勒斯坦领土上举行的自由和公正的选举结果。 哈马斯在这一选举中大获全胜。


The government created after the January 2006 elections has been unable to pay civil servants because of the international banking blockade and the refusal of Israel to transfer millions of tax dollars collected on behalf of the Palestinian people.	2006年选举后产生的政府由于国际银行系统的封锁以及以色列拒绝转移代为巴勒斯坦人民征收的数百万美元的税款而无法支付公务员的工资。


After months without pay, the government, headed by Hamas’s Ismael Haniyeh, was confronted with a serious challenge in September, when civil servants went on strike, demanding to be paid.	经过几个月的拖欠工资，去年九月，公务员罢工，要求支付工资。 由哈马斯的哈尼亚领导的政府面临严峻的挑战。


The differences between the Fatah-led presidency of Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas’s Islamist government spilled into the streets.	法塔赫派总统阿巴斯以及哈马斯伊斯兰政府之间的分歧扩散到街上。


Threats by Abbas to hold elections to resolve the deadlock seemed to add oil to the fire.	阿巴斯威胁举行选举来解决僵局似乎是火上加油。


With unemployment rising, income dropping to record low levels, and internal tensions escalating, fighting between supporters of Hamas and Fatah began.	当失业上升、收入下降到历史最低点以及内部紧张局势升级之时，哈马斯和法塔赫两派支持者之间的战斗开始了。


Attempts to reconcile the parties began in Gaza, before moving to Cairo, Damascus, and finally Mecca under the supervision of Saudi King Abdullah, whose country has been a financial backer of the Palestinians for decades.	让双方和解的努力开始于加沙，随后转移到开罗和大马士革，最后到麦迦在沙特国王阿卜杜拉的监督下进行。 沙特几十年来一直为巴勒斯坦提供资金支持。


One of the first challenges for the new government will be to convince the international community that it respects previous Palestinian agreements.	新政府首要的挑战之一就是让国际社会相信它尊重先前的巴勒斯坦协议。


This includes the mutual recognition agreed by the PLO and Israel, as well as the Oslo Accords.	这包括巴解组织和伊斯兰之间的相互承认以及奥斯陆协议。


By announcing the acceptance of previous agreements and supporting the Arab peace initiative, the new government should be able to bring economic normalcy to the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority.	新政府通过宣布接受先前的协议并且支持阿拉伯的和平倡议，将能够让缺少资金的巴勒斯坦权力机构恢复经济正常之中。


Money, however, is not the only need.	但是，金钱并非唯一的需要。


The ceasefire understanding between Palestinian factions and Israel will need to be honored through the commitment of both sides and a parallel political process.	巴勒斯坦派别和以色列之间达成的停火谅解需要通过双方的承诺辅之以政治进程而得到遵守。


The international community, especially the US, is giving verbal support to launching serious Palestinian-Israeli talks, and the Mecca Agreement paves the way for Abbas to negotiate an end to the occupation.	国际社会、特别是美国在口头上支持展开严肃认真的巴以会谈，而麦迦协议为阿巴斯谈判结束占领铺平了道路。


This will test the resolve of Israel and the international community to achieve tangible progress on re-starting negotiations.	这将会考验以色列和国际社会实现重新启动谈判坚实进展的决心。


But the newly established national unity government faces yet another daunting challenge.	但是，刚刚组建的民族团结政府面临另一个严峻的挑战。


If resumption of political violence and property destruction is to be avoided, a new internal security policy will be needed.	如果要避免政治暴力和摧毁财产卷土重来就需要一个新的内部安全政策。


The numerous militias, groups, gangs, and individuals who own and use weapons must be controlled.	需要对拥有和使用武器的难以计数的民兵、团体、流氓团伙以及个人加以控制。


The new unity government must insist on the creation of a single, united armed force.	新的团结政府必须坚持建立单一的、统一的武装力量。


In order to end lawlessness, the Palestinian security leadership will need to lift the protection given to armed individuals who have been using their weapons with impunity to injure, kill, and destroy property.	为了结束无法无天，巴勒斯坦安全领导人就需要解除保护那些使用武器杀伤人民以及摧毁财产而可以逍遥法外的人。


Indeed, law and order must be the top priority of the unity government, owing to the need to restore the Palestinian public’s faith in Palestinian leaders from all factions.	实际上，由于需要恢复巴勒斯坦公众对各派别巴勒斯坦领导人的信心，法律和秩序必须是团结政府的首要任务。


The past year has been one of the most difficult years in modern Palestinian history.	去年是现代巴勒斯坦历史上最为困难的年份之一。


For years, the world envied the Palestinian people’s strong social fiber, as they held together despite the occupation.	多年来，世界都羡慕巴勒斯坦人民强烈的社会刚毅。 尽管被占领，他们仍然能够团结一致。


With a strong sense of national identity, Palestinians boasted that they had a clear unifying purpose: ending the Israeli occupation and establishing an independent and democratic state.	巴勒斯坦人具有强烈的民族认同感，他们宣布他们具有明确一致的目标，那就是结束以色列的占领并建立一个独立民主的国家。


But the recent months of infighting have left a deep wound among Palestinians.	但是最近几个月的内斗却在巴勒斯坦人内部留下了深深的伤口。


If that wound is to heal, much effort must be exerted to restore a functioning economy, strengthen internal security, and improve Palestinians’ relations with their neighbors and the international community.	要弥合这一伤口，就需要大力恢复能够正常运行的经济，加强内部安全以及改善巴勒斯坦与其邻居和国际社会的关系。


No Child Left Out	不让一个孩子掉队


SEOUL – On a recent visit to a camp for Syrian refugees in Turkey, I witnessed some of the most powerful displays of human endurance that anyone can imagine.	首尔——在不久前访问土耳其一座叙利亚难民阵营时，我亲眼目睹了难民身上所表现出的超乎想象的人类忍耐力。


And yet, amid all the stories of trauma and loss, what affected me the most was these refugee families’ unquenchable thirst for education.	但在所有的创伤和损失故事中，最深深打动我的却是这些难民家庭难以抑制地渴望教育。


The children I spoke to told me of their continued desire to learn in the camp’s makeshift schools, crammed into classes and taught in shifts running from before dawn until after dark.	和我谈话的孩子告诉我他们渴望在难民营的临时学校接受教育，临时学校从凌晨到天黑轮流上课，课堂上挤满了前来听课的孩子。


Their parents spoke of the hope they place in the transformative power of education.	他们的父母希望教育能够改变孩子未来的命运。


Syria once boasted universal education.	叙利亚以前曾夸口实现了普及教育。


Now, with more than four million people forced to flee their homes because of the violence wracking the country, it has become one of the world’s many places suffering from what can only be described as a global education crisis.	但现在，因为有400多万人被迫在国内冲突中背井离乡，叙利亚沦为世界上诸多只能用全面教育危机来形容的国家之一。


There are an estimated 58 million primary-school-aged children out of school worldwide, and those affected by conflict and natural disasters are among the hardest to reach.	全世界约有5，800万小学适龄儿童失学，其中受冲突和自然灾害影响的儿童最难以得到帮助。


Worse, the number of child refugees cut off from school – in places like Nepal, Myanmar, and Yemen – is increasing at an alarming rate.	更糟的是，尼泊尔、缅甸和也门等地的失学儿童数量以惊人的速度增长。


If the international community does not act to nurture and educate these children, the cycle of poverty and conflict will be reproduced for generations to come.	如果国际社会不采取措施培养和教育这些孩子，贫穷和冲突的循环将世世代代延续下去。


The fact that so many children are cut off from education constitutes a clear failure on the part of the world’s governments, which promised in 2000, when the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were adopted, to ensure primary schooling for all children by 2015.	这么多孩子无法接受教育显然是政府的失职，各国政府曾在2000年千年发展目标（MDGs）通过时承诺到2015年确保让所有孩子接受小学教育。


To achieve this, it is not enough to enroll children in school; they must be kept there and provided a quality education.	要做到这一点仅仅让孩子入学是不够的； 必须让孩子留在学校接受高质量教育。


UNESCO estimates that at least 250 million of the world’s children of primary-school age are unable to read, write, or do basic arithmetic.	联合国教科文组织估计全世界至少有2. 5亿小学适龄儿童无法读、写或完成最基本的算术题。


This week, the international community will have a chance to do something about this scandalous state of affairs.	本周，国际社会将有机会为改变上述可耻状态尽一份力。


Policymakers from around the world will meet in South Korea at the World Education Forum to agree on the global education targets that are set to replace the MDGs.	世界各地决策者将在韩国世界教育论坛会面，就取代千年发展目标的全球教育目标达成一致。


It is truly fitting that South Korea is hosting this forum, because it is so often seen as a model of what investment in education can deliver.	因为被普遍视为靠教育投资拉动发展的典范，由韩国来举办教育论坛的确非常合适。


Some 8% of South Korea’s GDP is spent on education, and UNESCO estimates that every dollar invested in primary schools generates $10-$15 in economic returns.	韩国约8%的国内生产总值被用于投资教育，据联合国教科文组织估计每投资1美元到小学教育能产生10到15美元的经济效益。


South Korea, which has lifted itself up from the ranks of the world’s poorest countries to among its richest in just two generations, is living proof that education pays off.	在短短两代人时间里，韩国从世界最贫困国家上升为最富裕国家实实实在在证明了教育投资的效益。


The new Sustainable Development Goals that are to be agreed this year underscore the challenges that world governments must address by 2030.	今年即将通过的新的可持续发展目标罗列了各国政府到2030年必须解决的难题。


I insist that quality universal primary education must be one of the SDGs’ top priorities.	我坚持认为可持续发展目标必须优先涵盖高质量的初等普及教育。


The emphasis here is on quality.	质量是这里必须强调的问题。


Success is measured not only by the number of children we enroll, nor by their achievements on standardized tests; the most important outcomes are the tangible and intangible impacts of education on the quality of students’ lives.	成功的标准既不是招收的儿童数量，也不是标准化考试的成绩； 对学生生活质量有形无形的影响才是最重要问题。


This is the unfinished business of the MDGs.	这是千年发展目标未能达到的目的。


Wherever I travel with the Education Above All foundation, I encounter bright, motivated children who have been denied the chance to learn.	无论我随“教育高于一切”基金去往���处，都能遇到聪明上进、却被剥夺了学习机会的孩子。


As the world moves on to new priorities, we cannot forget our responsibility to those who have been failed by our complacency.	在世界制定全新目标之际，我们不能忘记因为我们的自满而被剥夺了教育机会的孩子。


The job is not done.	工作尚未完成，同志仍需努力。


We must remain committed to achieving the goal of quality primary education for all children – not some, and not even most – wherever they live.	我们必须继续竭尽所能为所有孩子提供优质的小学教育——不是一部分，甚至不是绝大多数——无论他们生活在哪里。


Universities: Renaissance or Decay?	大学：复兴还是堕落？


“Europe’s universities, taken as a group, are failing to provide the intellectual and creative energy that is required to improve the continent’s poor economic performance.”	“从整体上讲，欧洲的大学没有能够为改善这片大陆糟糕的经济状况提供必须的知识和创新能量。


This dramatic statement introduces a new pamphlet whose subtitle, “Renaissance or Decay,” I have borrowed for this reflection.	”这一充满激情的论调是一本新发行的手册的介绍，我借用这本手册的副标题“复兴还是堕落”来概括我的思考。


The pamphlet’s two authors, Richard Lambert, a former editor of the Financial Times and future Director General of the Confederation of British Industry, and Nick Butler, the Group Vice President for Strategy and Policy Development at British Petroleum do not represent vested academic interests.	手册的两位作者一位是曾任《金融时报》编辑、并即将出任英国工商业联合会首席执行官的理查德·兰伯特（Richard Lambert），还有一位是在英国石油公司任职的英国工商业联合会负责战略和政策发展事务的副总裁尼克·巴特勒（Nick Butler）。


What they say about Europe probably applies to most other parts of the world as well, though not to the United States.	他们两位都不是学术领域既得利益者的代表。 他们关于欧洲的说法也许同样适用于世界大多数国家，尽管肯定不适用于美国。


Lambert and Butler identify four main weaknesses of European universities that must be addressed.	兰伯特和巴特勒找到了欧洲大学必须尽快解决的四大弱点。


They call for:	他们呼吁：


greater diversity in place of today’s conformity; incentives for universities to succeed, which implies the need to set their ambitions higher; less bureaucracy and more freedom and accountability; above all, more adequate funding to bring European universities close to the US level of 2.6% of GDP, from less than half on average. Not everyone will consider the underlying assumption of this analysis compelling.	最为重要的是为欧洲大学提供更加充足的经费，使其更为接近美国大学占国内生产总值2. 6%的经费水平，目前的现实情况是欧洲大学的平均经费只有美国大学的一半。


Why is this attention to universities necessary?	并不是所有人都会认为上述分析所隐含的前提令人信服。


Because, it is said, we now live in a “knowledge society.”	为什么要给大学以如此的关注？ 据说是因为我们现在生活在“知识社会”之中。


Perhaps.	这也许是对的。


It is also a fact that a university education is the best guarantee for young people to find jobs in a globalized environment in which information is a key to success.	而且，大学教育也是年轻人在今天信息作为成功关键的全球化环境中能够谋得职位的最好的保障。


Yet it is by no means certain that education systems in which 50% or more of each generation strive to attain a university degree are best suited to cope with the exigencies of the twenty-first century.	但是，当今使50%甚至更多人口殚精竭虑谋得大学学位的教育制度是否最适合应对21世纪的危机，关于这一点本身就没有定论。


Many jobs are, in fact, not “high tech,” but, in the words of Britain’s Adair Turner, “high touch” – service-sector jobs that do not require a university education.	许多工作实际上不属于“高科技”范畴，相反，用英国人阿达尔·特纳（Adair Turner）的话讲，它们是无需大学教育却需要“亲密接触”的服务性岗位。


Even more jobs are somewhere between the two.	还有更多的岗位介于上述两类之间。


Thus, a flexible system of varied educational institutions may be preferable to a system that leads one out of two students to an academic degree.	因此，也许我们需要的是拥有多种教育机构的灵活的教育制度，而不是让二分之一的人获得所谓的学术学位。


Were we to settle for, say, 25% of each generation on the academic track, universities in Europe, and indeed in many other parts of the world, would still have to overcome their unfortunate tendency to define their purposes against the business world.	即便我们能够满足于让每代青年人中的25%走上学术之路，欧洲的大学仍然要克服自身的一种不良倾向，那就是根据商业社会的需求来界定自己的目标。 事实上，世界其他很多国家的大学也面临同样的情况。


This tendency has been detrimental both for the business world, which is deprived of the cultural wealth provided by higher education, and for universities, because it removes them from their proper setting in the real world.	这种倾向对商业社会和大学都非常不利，前者失去了高等教育所带来的文化财富，而后者也在这种潮流的冲击下，迷失了真实世界中本该属于自己的位置。


There is a strong case for more adequate funding of higher education, including student fees, which are still unpopular in many countries outside the US.	有充分的理由要求为高等教育提供包括学费在内的更为充足的资金援助，但是在美国以外的很多其他国家，这样的做法还没有为人们所普遍接受。


But money is not all that is needed.	但也不是有了钱就万事大吉了。


One of the greatest comparative strengths of American universities lies in the nature of human relations.	美国大学最伟大的比较实力是来源于它们的人际关系特色。


Teachers take their job seriously.	教师们都对工作认真负责。


They engage with students rather than eagerly awaiting breaks and holidays to pursue their own projects.	他们与学生深入接触，而不是热切地盼望利用休息日和假期来从事自己的研究。


They are true university teachers rather than people who invoke the “unity of teaching and research” in order to concentrate on research subjects and hope that teaching will take care of itself.	他们都是真正意义上的大学教师，而不是为了全心全意搞研究项目而鼓吹“教研合一”的理念，希望教学能够不花力气就水到渠成的纯粹的研究人员。


Moreover, the research atmosphere of American universities is characterized by a great deal of informal cooperation.	除此之外，多如牛毛的非正式合作是美国大学研究氛围的一大特色。


People meet in laboratories and seminars, but also in common rooms and cafeterias.	人们经常会面的地点不仅限于实验室和研讨会，还包括公共休息室和咖啡馆。


They are not obsessed with hierarchical status or surrounded by assistants.	他们不会被严格的等级关系捆住手脚，也不会被一大群助��包围得水泄不通。


Nor are they tied to narrow projects and the project groups formed around them.	他们也不会被狭隘的项目和身边的项目小组所束缚。


Despite fierce competition for academic tenure, for space in journals and in other media, and for advancement in general, people talk to each other as colleagues.	尽管对学术职务、对期刊和其他媒体上文章的刊载和对一般意义上的提升机会竞争都同样激烈，人们相互之间还是能够像同事一样地互相交谈。


This is what doctoral and postdoctoral students like when they go to American – and, to a lesser extent, British – universities.	赴美留学的博士和博士后学生对这一点的印象最为深刻，其次是曾经在英伦三岛留学的学生。


This is also what they miss even as they relapse into the bad old habits at home.	即便回国后曾经的陋习又故态复盟，有过英美留学经历的学生对这种平等关系也深感怀念。


As in so many other respects, universities not only in Europe, but also in Japan, South Korea, and developing parts of the world, including China and India, need to loosen rigid structures and habits to avoid decay and nurture a renaissance.	和其他很多领域中一样，不仅是欧洲、就连日本、韩国、以及包括中国和印度在内的发展中国家的大学也需要放松僵硬的体制、改变僵化的习惯来避免堕落、酝酿复兴。


Unleashing Africa’s Girl Power	释放非洲女孩的力量


MAPUTO – Sub-Saharan Africa’s economies have boomed in recent years.	马普托—撒哈拉以南非洲经济体在近几年十分繁荣。


But the headline figures often mask longer-term problems – not least, an over-reliance on natural resources and chronic inequalities.	但新闻标题的数字常常掩盖长期问题——不光是过度依赖自然资源和长期不平等的问题。


Inclusive, sustainable growth is achievable, but only by tapping the continent’s greatest reserve of energy and creativity: African women and girls.	可持续的包容性增长是可以实现的，但只有释放这个大洲最大的能量和创造性之源才行——那就是非洲妇女和女孩。


Health and development experts, economists, non-governmental organizations, United Nations agencies, and banks agree that the key to unlocking Africa’s potential lies in expanding women’s education, freedom, and job opportunities.	卫生和发展专家、经济学家、非政府组织、联合国机构以及银行都同意，释放非洲的潜力取决于扩大妇女的教育、自由和就业机会。


Today, many African women are not only expected to fulfill traditional roles, such as raising children and caring for the elderly; they also face legal and social discrimination regarding land and property ownership, inheritance, education, and access to credit and technology – in addition to oppressive sexual mores and violence.	如今，许多非洲妇女不但要扮演传统角色（如抚养孩子和照顾老人），还面临着土地和财产权利、继承、教育、获得信用和技术等方面的法律和社会歧视——当然还有压迫性性习俗和暴力。


Yet gender equality is necessary for the continent’s well-being.	但性别平等是非洲大陆福祉的必要条件。


Consider the pressing issue of food security.	以粮食安全这一紧迫问题为例。


Women comprise half of the agriculture sector’s workforce, growing, selling, buying, and preparing food for their families.	妇女构成了农业部门劳动力的半壁江山，她们为家庭种植、出售、购买和准备粮食。


Studies suggest that equal access to resources would increase farm yields by 20-30%, offsetting the effects of drought and climate change.	研究表明，平等地获得资源将让农地产量提高20—30%，抵消干旱和气候变化的影响。


Access to education, capital, markets, and technologies would allow women to process, package, and market their products, especially for Africa’s growing middle class, bolstering both earnings and food supplies.	获得教育、资本、市场和技术能让妇女处理、打包和推销她们的产品，特别是面向非洲不断增加的中产阶级，从而同时改善收入和粮食供给。


Agriculture is but one example.	农业只是一个例子。


Greater female participation in male-dominated occupations across the board would increase overall labor productivity by up to 25%.	提高女性在各行业男性主导岗位的参与度能让总体劳动生产率提高25%。


The same is true of politics, where more female participation and leadership would improve governance and public services, as promising experiences in some parts of Africa and elsewhere have shown.	政治亦然，更多的女性参与和领导能改善治理和公共服务，非洲和其他地区都有令人振奋的经验。


The first step to improving conditions for women must be to strengthen their sexual and reproductive health and rights – an issue concerning which Africa has some of the world’s worst indicators.	改善妇女条件的第一步必然是强化她们的性和生殖卫生和权利——在这个问题上，非洲的一些指标在全世界排名倒数。


Simply put, women must be allowed to decide, free of coercion or violence, about their sexuality and health; if, when, and whom to marry; and whether and when to become a parent.	简言之，必须让妇女在不受压迫和暴力威胁的情况下决定她们的性和健康； 决定是否、何时和与谁结婚；


This cannot happen without providing women and girls with the information, education, and services they need to make their own decisions.	决定是否和何时成为母亲。 如果不为妇女和女孩提供做出自己的决定所需要的信息、教育和服务，就无法实现这一点。


Sexual and reproductive health issues exact a huge yet largely avoidable toll on African women, their families, and communities.	性和生殖卫生问题造成非洲妇女、她们的家庭以及社区的巨大的无端损失。


The costs usually strike in the prime of women’s economically productive lives, devaluing their future contributions to society.	损失往往在妇女经济生产率最高的时候造成，这打击了她们日后为社会做出的贡献。


At the extreme, more than 400 African women and girls die every day during pregnancy or childbirth, scarring families and plunging surviving children into hardship.	一个极端情况是每天都有400多非洲妇女和女孩在怀孕或生产中死亡，给她们的家庭造成创伤，也让遗孤陷入苦难。


Many of these deaths are caused by the estimated five million unsafe abortions carried out annually in Sub-Saharan Africa.	这些死亡中有许多是由于不安全堕胎造成的，据估计，每年撒哈拉以南地区约有五百万起不安全堕胎。


The cost to society in lost income from death and disability is nearly $1 billion.	因为死亡和残疾给社会造成的收入损失接近10亿美元。


Almost all of these deaths occur in countries with restrictive abortion laws, which African leaders should consider reforming as a matter of common sense and social justice.	这些死亡几乎全部发生在存在严格堕胎法的国家，非洲领导人应该考虑将改革视为共识和社会公正问题。


A prime focus should be on protecting the most vulnerable – adolescent girls.	主要注意力应该集中在保护最脆弱人群——青少年女孩身上。


More than one-third of African girls marry before the age of 18, which threatens their health, truncates their education, and lowers their aspirations for the future.	超过三分之一的非洲女孩在18岁之前结婚，这威胁到她们的健康，缩短她们的教育，降低她们对未来的期望。


They are also more likely than older women to die of birth-related complications, and are more prone to abuse.	与较年长的妇女相比，她们更有可能死于与生产相关的状况，也更有可能遭到虐待。


Though most African states outlaw early or forced marriages, enforcement is weak.	尽管大部分非洲国家已将早婚或强迫婚姻列为非法，但执行力度很弱。


African girls are also disproportionately vulnerable to contracting HIV.	非洲女孩还非常容易感染艾滋病。


Roughly 90% of the world’s pregnant women and children with HIV live in Africa, and, despite notable recent reductions in HIV transmission rates, adolescent girls are still more than twice as likely as boys of the same age to carry the virus.	大约90%的艾滋病孕妇和孩子生活在非洲，而尽管艾滋病传染率在近几年中大幅下降，但青少年女孩携带艾滋病病毒的概率仍比同龄男孩高出一倍多。


Yet barely a third of young Africans know how to prevent HIV – another reason for urgent and comprehensive sexuality education.	但只有不到三分之一非洲年轻人明白如何预防艾滋病——这是抓紧实施全面性教育的又一理由。


Another epidemic afflicting African women is violence, all too often perpetrated with impunity.	另一个影响非洲妇女的社会顽疾是暴力，施暴者往往可以逍遥法外。


Sexual violence is used as a tactic of war.	性暴力被用作一种战争策略。


But it is also a disturbing feature of home life; 37% of African women report having been abused by their partner.	但它也是令人担忧的家庭生活现象； 37%的非洲妇女报告被伴侣虐待。


In the case of female genital mutilation and child marriage, such violence is culturally sanctioned.	在女性割礼和童婚情形中，这类暴力是一种文化制裁。


We must change laws, judicial systems, and attitudes that exonerate the perpetrators, and we must provide help to victims.	我们必须改变让施暴者逍遥法外的法律、司法制度和态度，也必须为受害者提供帮助。


Attitudes can change.	态度是可以改变的。


Contraception, for example, was once a contentious issue.	比如，避孕曾经就是个有争议的问题。


Today, most African leaders accept it as an important, cost-effective investment and as part of their countries’ economic-development strategies.	如今，大部分非洲领导人都认同这是一项重要的高性价比投资和国家经济发展战略的组成部分。


Basic family planning in 16 Sub-Saharan countries could save more than $1 billion in education costs alone.	16个撒哈拉以南国家的基本计划生育光是在教育成本上就能节约10亿美元以上。


The number of maternal deaths could fall by one-third, saving millions (in developing countries overall, maternal and new-born health-care savings could reach $5.7 billion).	产妇死亡数量可以下降三分之一，节省数百万美元（发展中国家总体而言，产妇和新生儿医疗成本节约可以达到57亿美元）。


However, the sad reality is that, despite support from various development partners and donors, assistance for reproductive health care and family planning fell by half in the last decade.	但是，令人悲哀的现实是，尽管由诸多发展伙伴和出资国的支持，但对生殖健康和计划生育的援助在过去十年中下降了一半。


The compounding benefits of ending legal, economic, and gender discrimination are vast.	终结法律、经济和性别歧视的综合好处是巨大的。


Healthier, wealthier, and better-educated women tend to produce healthier, wealthier, and better-educated families, because women typically invest more of their earnings than men do in their children’s wellbeing.	更健康、更富有、教育程度更高的妇女可以带来更健康、更富有、教育程度更高的家庭，因为妇女往往会比男性将更多收入投资于孩子的福祉。


With the continent’s population forecast to double by 2050, there is hardly a better time to invest in women and girls.	非洲人口预计在2050年时将翻一番，因此现在投资于妇女和女性可谓机会绝佳。


It is as much an economic as an ethical argument.	这既是一个紧迫的经济问题，也是一个紧迫的伦理问题。


Europe’s Hidden Stimulus	欧洲的隐藏刺激


LONDON – When the European Council next meets, on February 7, it should look at private investment as a means to kick-start Europe’s stagnant economy.	伦敦—欧洲理事会将在2月7日召开新一次会议，这次会议应该将私人投资视为刺激欧洲停滞的经济的手段。


With the usual drivers of GDP growth constrained across Europe, the one economic sector able to spend is the non-financial corporate sector.	放眼欧洲，GDP增长得常用引擎无不熄火，有能力支出的经济部门只剩下非金融公司部门了。


Indeed, publicly traded European companies had excess cash holdings of €750 billion ($1 trillion) in 2011, close to a 20-year high.	事实上，2011年欧洲上市公司手握着7500亿欧元的超额现金，接近20年新高。


Unlocking that cash would give Europe a much larger stimulus package than any government can provide.	让它们花这笔钱相当于对欧洲实施了任何政府所无法给予的刺激方案。


In 2011, for example, private investment in Europe totaled more than €2 trillion, compared to government investment of less than €300 billion.	比如，在2011年，欧洲私人投资总量为2万亿欧元，而政府投资还不到3000亿欧元。


And yet, while trends among European economies have varied, private investment was, overall, the hardest-hit component of GDP during the crisis, plunging by more than €350 billion – ten times greater than the fall in private consumption and four times more than the decline in real GDP – between 2007 and 2011.	此外，尽管欧洲各经济体的趋势各不相同，但总的来说私人投资是危机期间受创最重的GDP要素，2007—2011年间下降了超过3500亿欧元——比私人消费降幅大十倍，比真实GDP降幅大四倍。


The magnitude of the private-investment downturn was, in fact, unprecedented – and lies at the heart of Europe’s economic malaise.	事实上，私人投资的如此降幅可谓前所未见，也是欧洲经济不安的核心问题。


Likewise, by historical standards, the private-investment recovery is running late.	类似地，从历史标准看，私人投资的复苏也可谓姗姗来迟。


In more than 40 past episodes in which GDP fell and private investment declined by 10%, recovery took an average of five years.	在过去40多次GDP下降、私人投资收缩超过10%的经验中，平均复苏时间为五年。


Europe is four years removed from the onset of recession, but private investment in 2011 was still lower than its 2007 level in 26 of the European Union’s 27 member states.	如今，欧洲距离衰退开始已经过去了四年，但2011年，27个欧盟成员国中的26个国家，私人投资仍低于2007年的水平。


To be sure, the fact that companies are holding on to their cash, rather than paying it out in dividends, signals that they expect investment opportunities to return – a far more positive situation than in Japan, for example, where companies lack cash to invest.	平心而论，公司持有现金而不是把它们以分红的形式花掉这一事实表明它们预期投资机会重现——这比（比如）公司缺少投资资金的日本的情况要积极得多。


But European companies remain hesitant, despite low interest rates, keeping private investment well below its previous peak.	但尽管利率很低，欧洲公司仍然犹豫不决，导致私人投资远低于此前的峰值。


Governments can help to persuade companies to let go of their cash by removing regulatory barriers such as zoning regulations in retail and a plethora of requirements in the construction sector concerning everything from the height of ceilings to the size of staircase areas.	政府可以通过解除监管壁垒（比如零售业的分区管制、建筑部门从天花板高度到楼梯间面积无所不包的各种要求）帮助说服公司花钱。


They should also address the lack of uniform standards across Europe’s internal borders; for example, there are 11 separate signaling systems for rail freight in the EU-15.	它们还应该解决欧洲各国彼此之间缺少统一标准的问题，比如，欧盟15国存在11种彼此不同的铁路信号系统。


After Sweden eased planning laws in its retail sector during the 1990’s, the country posted the strongest retail productivity growth in Europe (and outstripped that of the United States) between 1995 and 2005.	20世纪90年代，瑞典放松了零售部门的规划法，此后，1995—2005年，该国零售生产率增长在欧洲一马当先（甚至超过了美国）。


Standardization and liberalization in European telecoms underpinned 9% growth in value added and productivity in this period, compared to 6% growth in the US.	同期，欧洲电信业的标准化和自由化带来了增加值和生产率9%的增长，而美国只有6%。


The largest scope for renewed private investment is in capital-intensive sectors in which government has a major presence as regulator.	大规模振兴私人投资的领域在于资本密集型部门，在这些部门，政府的身影往往作为监管者出现。


Even if European countries were to close only 10% of the variation in capital stock per worker at the subsector level, the impact could be more than €360 billion in additional investment – offsetting the €354 billion difference in private investment between 2007 and 2011.	即使欧洲各国的次级部门人均资本存量差距只减少10%，也能带来超过3600亿欧元的投资增量，足以抵消2007—2011年间3540亿欧元的私人投资变化。


Many projects, from airports to university campuses, benefit from returns over decades, which implies that weak demand in the short term will have only a limited impact on their overall viability.	从机场到大学校园，许多工程的回报期超过几十年，这意味着疲弱的短期需求对其长期可行性的影响甚微。


Even among more near-term projects, some – for example, retrofitting buildings with more energy-efficient features – could become viable with action from policymakers.	即使是期限更短的投资，如用节能材料和功能改装建筑，也可以在决策者的推动下变得可行。


Some degree of investment will add to demand, which may persuade others to invest – a virtuous circle.	一定程度的投资可以增加需求，需求的增加可以说服其他人投资——良性循环就此产生。


This approach is not about “picking winners and losers.”	这一方法并非“挑选赢家和输家”。


It is about targeted microeconomic reforms that reduce or remove barriers to private investment, thereby encouraging the non-financial corporate sector to propel European GDP growth.	这一方法事关减少或消除私人投资壁垒的定向微观经济改革，从而鼓励非金融公司部门提振欧洲GDP增长。


But it is important to get this policy activism right.	但正确理解这一政策积极主义是很重要的。


First, governments need to focus on sectors in which action is likely to trigger renewed investment on a scale large enough to boost GDP – and quickly enough to enable private investment to drive the recovery.	首先，政府需要专注于行动可能触发投资增加规模之大足以提振GDP、速度之快足以让私人投资推动复苏的部门。


Governments often become enamored of innovative sectors, such as semiconductors, that account for only a very small share of total investment.	政府通常倾心与创新性部门，如半导体行业，这些部门往往只占总投资的一小部分。


Policymakers may wish to develop these sectors as a catalyst to innovation, but they should not expect that such initiatives alone can spur a recovery in private investment.	决策者可以将这些部门的发展视为创新催化剂，但不应该指望光靠这点努力就能刺激私人投资复苏。


In fact, construction and real estate are the most promising candidates, as they account for roughly one-third of European fixed investment and more than 17 million jobs.	事实上，建筑业和房地产业是最有效的候选者，因为它们大约提供了三分之一的欧洲固定投资和1700多万个工作岗位。


Although these sectors are unlikely to rebound to pre-crisis levels in Greece, Ireland, and Spain for many years, other European economies, including the United Kingdom, Italy, and Sweden, as well as some Eastern European economies, have scope for further investment.	尽管在希腊、爱尔兰和西班牙等国家，这些部门花上好多年都不可能回到危机前水平，但其他欧洲经济体，包括英国、意大利、瑞典以及一些东欧经济体，存在增加投资的空间。


To meet Europe’s ambitious 2020 energy targets, retrofitting existing buildings and improving new buildings’ energy efficiency, including the use of more energy-efficient materials and equipment, could lead to roughly €37 billion in additional annual investment between now and 2030.	为了达到欧洲雄心勃勃的2020年能源目标，改造现有建筑、改善新建筑能源效率——包括使用更加节能的材料和设备——可以在现在到2030年这段时间每年增加约370亿欧元投资。


In most European countries, action to spur private investment in local services and transport – both large sectors – should also be considered.	在大部分欧洲国家，刺激本地服务和交通——都是大部门——的私人投资的行动也应该予以考虑。


Governments, however, need to understand the barriers to investment: regulatory failures; weak enablers, including financial and human capital; poor infrastructure; and substandard technology.	但是，政府需要明白投资的壁垒：监管失灵； 疲软的推动因子（包括金融和人力资本）；


And they must undertake rigorous cost-benefit analyses, in order to ensure that any intervention translates into private investment that promotes productivity growth.	以及达不到标准的技术。 它们还必须进行严格的成本-效益分析，以确保干预能够转化为促进生产率增长的私人投资。


It is here – at the level of execution – that governments often perform poorly.	政府表现低劣的领域就在这里——执行。


Too often, they spend money to support private-sector projects that fail to provide a positive return for the broader economy.	它们往往把钱花在了支持无法为总体经济提供正回报的私人部门项目上。


Three ingredients are vital to getting it right: backing for initiatives at the highest political level; participation by all key stakeholders in deciding what action to take and driving its implementation; and establishing small, high-powered delivery units with clear mandates to coordinate interventions.	在决定采取什么行动以及促进其实施过程中让所有重要相关利益方都参与进来； 以及建立小型、高能的传递单元，以明确的指令协调干预。


Europe’s leaders need to put private investment at the center of their growth strategy by devising policies that open the gates to large potential flows.	欧洲领导人需要通过设计打开大规模潜在流入之门的政策将私人投资置于增长战略的核心。


The European Council meeting on February 7 is an ideal opportunity to make a start.	2月7日的欧洲理事会会议是理想的开端。


Unmasking the Man with the Wooden Face	胡锦涛的真面目


Ever since he became General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and President of the Peoples’ Republic of China four years ago, Hu Jintao has remained infuriatingly wooden-faced and opaque.	自四年前胡锦涛成为中共总书记和国家主席以来一直僵硬呆板、捉摸不定，令人厌恶。 但是去年，神秘的外罩开始脱落。


Over the past year, however, the shroud of mystery has begun to drop.	胡锦涛大肆颂扬“毛泽东思想”，镇压媒体异议人士。


Hu’s unbridled glorification of “Mao Zedong Thought,” coupled with his suppression of dissent in the media, has begun not only to reveal a true authoritarian, but also to belie the wishful thinking of liberals, both inside and outside China, who hoped that Hu would be a reform-minded leader.	这些行为不仅开始揭示了一个独裁者，而且也让国内外一厢情愿的自由派人士大失所望。 这些人希望胡锦涛会成为锐意改革的领导人。


It was the late patriarch Deng Xiaoping who in 1992 made the surprising demand that Hu, former Secretary of the Communist Youth League and protégé of ousted party chief Hu Yaobang, be inducted into the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee.	已故的中共家长邓小平在1992年惊人地要求前共青团书记和被罢黜的前总书记胡耀邦的门生胡锦涛进入中共政治局常委。


Deng, in effect, personally designated Hu as successor to President Jiang Zemin.	邓小平实际上亲自指定胡锦涛为江泽民的继任人。


As Deng had crushed the protestors in Tiananmen Square in June of 1989, Hu had proven himself to be “firm and resolute” in quelling anti-Beijing riots in Lhasa, Tibet, two months earlier.	正如邓小平在1989年镇压了天安门广场的示威者一样，胡锦涛在两个月前平息了拉萨的反中央骚乱，表现得“坚决果断”。


Both understood the dangers of political reform.	这两个人都理解政治改革的危险。


Hu, a life-long Party functionary, was able to fool most observers during his first year in office.	胡锦涛一生都是党政干部，他在掌权的第一年欺骗了大多数观察家。


He and Premier Wen Jiabao – often called a latter-day Zhou Enlai for his administrative abilities and willingness to play second fiddle – rolled out one impressive slogan after another: “Put people first,” “Run the country according to law,” “Render the media closer to the people,” and “Make government transparent.”	他和总理温家宝一个接一个地推出令人印象深刻的口号，什么“以民为本”，“依法治国”，“媒体贴近群众”以及“政务透明”。 温家宝常常由于他的行政能力和甘当配角而被称为当今的周恩来。


The leadership seemed to be moving away from the ancien regime of Jiang.	这一政权似乎正在摆脱江泽民的老政权。


Hu pledged to replace Deng’s elitist ethos of “letting one part of the population get rich first”– a policy that has produced a staggering wealth gap – with a more egalitarian approach.	胡锦涛发誓要以更为平均的措施取代邓小平“让一部分人先富起来”的精英性政策。 这一政策造成了巨大的贫富差别。


As part of his government’s efforts “to construct a harmonious society,” a tax on agricultural produce was scrapped last year, while the State Council vowed to boost annual investment in rural infrastructure.	去年，作为其政府的“建立和谐社会”的工作的一部分，农业税被取消，而国务院则保证每年都加强农村基础设施的投资。


But Hu’s administration invariably slams on the brakes whenever their “put-people-first” initiatives begin to threaten one-party rule.	但是，一旦其“以民为本”的政策开始威胁到一党专政之时，胡锦涛就必定踩煞车。


Hu’s Politburo has consistently refused to let peasants set up non-official farmers’ associations or trade unions.	胡锦涛的政治局一贯拒绝让农民建立非官方的农民社团或工会。


At the same time, it has allowed farmers across China to fall victim to an epidemic of illegal land grabs by local governments and developers.	与此同时，他们坐视全国各地的农民土地被当地政府和开发商非法强占。


Not only has Hu’s administration failed to protect the rights of the poor and the oppressed, but police and government-hired thugs now frequently harass lawyers and other activists who lobby on behalf of the country’s dispossessed.	胡锦涛当局不仅没有保护穷人和受压迫人的权利，而且，警察和政府雇佣的痞子现在经常骚扰维权的律师和其他活动份子。


Chen Guangcheng, a blind lawyer – famous for exposing a forced abortion scandal in Shandong – was given a four-year jail term on the dubious charge of “organizing a mob to disturb traffic.”	盲人律师陈光诚因揭露山东的强制性流产丑闻而著名，他由于“聚众扰乱交通”莫须有的罪名被判刑四年。


Perhaps the most revealing aspect of Hu’s rule is his failure to reform the government’s outmoded institutions.	最能够昭示胡锦涛统制的莫过于其不改革过时的政府机制。


In a landmark speech on administrative restructuring in 1980, Deng underscored the urgency of bringing about a “separation of party and government.”	1980年，邓小平对行政改革做了历史性的讲话。 他强调“党政分开”的急迫性。


Hu, by contrast, seems to find little fault with the status quo, under which the Party remains in charge of not only government, but also state enterprises.	相反，胡锦涛好像与现状安然无事。 在这种局面下，中共不仅掌控政府，而且掌控国有企业。


It is also becoming increasingly clear that Hu will continue to rely on a variety of politically retrograde propaganda tactics.	而且，现在越发明显，胡锦涛将会继续依赖于政治上后退的宣传战术。


He has revived the use of ideological campaigns, akin to those used during the Cultural Revolution, such as a requirement that Party members study The Collected Works of Jiang Zemin .	他重新启用了类似文革时期的意识形态运动，例如要求中共党员学习江泽民文选。


Indeed, Hu has sought to restore some of Mao’s luster.	的确，胡锦涛试图恢复毛泽东的光辉。


In a speech marking the Great Helmsman’s 110th birthday in late 2003, he declared Mao to be a “great proletariat revolutionary strategist and theorist.”	2003年底在纪念伟大领袖110周年诞辰的讲话上，他宣称毛泽东是一位“伟大的无产阶级革命战略家和理论家”。


While Deng had castigated Mao’s “leftist” errors, Hu’s hagiographic address made no mention of his manifold blunders.	邓小平批评了毛泽东的“左倾”错误，胡锦涛理想化的讲话对毛泽东的众多错误只字未提。


Moreover, Hu has fomented nationalism, not by taking understandable pride in China’s impressive economic growth, but by demonizing Japan.	而且，胡锦涛煽动了民族主义。 他的煽动方式并不是采用可以理解的、对中国印象深刻的经济增长大为自豪，而是妖魔化日本。


He has become increasingly reliant on the facile notion that state-sponsored patriotism and nationalism can hold China’s disparate groups together.	他已经愈发依赖于这一浅显的观点，那就是，由国家赞助的爱国主义和民族主义可以让中国迥异的各阶层连接在一起。


Finally, Hu, Wen, and the rest of the top leadership have turned themselves into superb firefighters with an uncanny ability to, in Party parlance, “nip the seeds of opposition before they sprout.”	最后，胡温和最高领导层已经把他们自己变成了超级消防队员，按照中共的说法，他们具有“把反抗消灭在萌芽之中”的超级能力。


Apart from sharpening the “tools of the proletarian dictatorship” by strengthening the Peoples Liberation Army and the People’s Armed Police, they have created a labyrinthine “advance warning” system to monitor threats ranging from peasant riots, urban unrest, and bird flu to the influx of Western ideas through the Internet.	他们除了通过加强解放军和武警来强化“无产阶级专政的工具”外，还建立了一整套森严的“预警”体系来监测农民暴动、城市骚乱、禽流感乃至通过互联网传播的西方观点。


Hu is due to remain in power until 2012.	胡锦涛将会一直掌权到2012年。


Given the economy’s solid performance and the docility of China’s population, there seems little doubt that Hu’s twenty-first-century market dictatorship will preserve the Party’s mandate to continue ruling – for now.	鉴于经济表现扎实，加之中国人易于驯服，毫无疑问，胡锦涛二十一世纪的市场独裁将会在目前维持中共继续统治。


But it is equally obvious that Hu, the sphinx-like apparatchik in whom Chinese and Western liberals alike had once invested hope, is unlikely to deliver the more open and humane China that they thought he had promised.	中国和西方的自由派人士对胡锦涛这一令人捉摸不定的党棍一度寄予希望。 同样清楚的是，他不大可能实现他们认为他曾经许诺过度更为开放和人道的中国。


China under Hu has perhaps found its development model: a form of Leninist capitalism with no aspirations toward a more democratic form of governance.	胡锦涛统治下的中国可能已经找到了其发展模式，那就是列宁主义的资本主义，对更为民主的政府模式毫无愿望。


Unpredictable Russia	不可预测的俄罗斯


When he first arrived in Paris in 2000 as the newly elected President of Russia, Vladimir Putin had a simple and reassuring message to convey.	当弗拉基米尔•普京作为俄罗斯的新科总统在2000年到达巴黎时，他所带去的是一个简单而令人欣慰的信息。


“I am bringing you what you need most: a stable and guaranteed source of energy.	“我给你们带来了你们最需要的东西：稳定而有保证的能源。


My oil and my gas will not be cheaper than supplies coming from the Middle East, but they will be much more secure.”	我们的石油和天然气不会比中东提供的便宜，但它们更有保障。 ”


Putin’s implicit point was that “Christian energy,” even if “Orthodox,” would be more reassuringly certain than “Muslim energy” for a Western world jittery about stability in the Middle East.	普京这番话的弦外之音是“基督教能源”，甚至是“东正教”的，都会比“穆斯林能源”更让在中东稳定问题上神经过敏的西方世界放心。


The Middle East was supposed to be messy and unpredictable, unlike the new and modern Russia of Putin.	中东似乎应该是混乱和不可预测的，决不会象普京领导下的现代新俄罗斯。


The problem today is that for Ukrainians, Georgians, not to mention Italians, “Christian” oil and gas from Russia does not seem nearly as secure and as fail-proof as Putin promised.	问题是现今对乌克兰人、格鲁吉亚人，更别说是意大利人而言，来自俄罗斯的“基督教”石油和天然气，与普京所承诺的充分保障和绝无隐忧也相去甚远。


The key criterion by which its allies and partners should judge Russia is predictability, and, in this respect, Russia is increasingly falling short.	盟友和伙伴们评价俄罗斯的关键标准是其可预测性。 而在这方面，俄罗斯越来越令人失望。


When Putin welcomes Hamas’s leaders without consulting the other members of the “Quartet” – the United Nations, the European Union, and the United States – charged with shepherding peace talks between Israel and Palestine, is Russia testing its “nuisance value” or simply performing an “avant-garde” role for the other Quartet members?	当普京没有和“四重奏”的另几个成员—联合国、欧盟和美国—商榷就对哈马斯领导人表示欢迎时，他被指责令巴以和谈陷入困境。 俄罗斯到底是在测试自己的“噪声值”，还是想在“四重奏”中扮演“领头羊”的角色？


What is becoming clearer by the day is that the formula defining Western policy towards Russia since communism’s collapse – “Let’s engage Russia if we can, let’s contain Russia if we must” – must now be completely rethought.	现在明确的一点就是：西方应该对其自共产主义瓦解以来用以界定对俄政策的规则进行重新思考。 这一规则就是：“尽我们所能接触它，在必要的时候遏制它。


The West has largely failed to engage Russia either as a European or Western ally.	”西方在很大程度上都没有能够将俄罗斯作为一个欧洲或西方盟友来对待。


Was this due to a lack of openness or imagination on our part, or a lack of interest or goodwill on Russia’s part?	这究竟是因为我们这边缺乏开阔的心胸和想象力，还是俄罗斯方面缺乏兴趣和诚意呢？


The inheritors of the Soviet empire never anticipated that their future was to become the West’s “junior,” poorer, repentant, and admiring partner.	苏维埃帝国的继承者们做梦也没有想到他们的未来竟是成为西方的“小字辈”，成为西方更贫穷，并充满悔悟和羡慕的伙伴。


Indeed, today’s Russians have no nostalgia for the Yeltsin years, which they associate with confusion, humiliation, shame and weakness.	的确，当今的俄罗斯对叶利钦时代没有什么留恋。 那个时代是和困惑、屈辱、羞耻和软弱联系在一起的。


For most Russians, the emergence of an independent civil society and the first fluttering of an inconstant democratic wind could not balance the deep national frustration felt over the loss of empire and shattered status.	对于大多数的俄罗斯人来说，独立的公民社会的出现和变幻无常的民主新风，并不能平衡由帝国的沦落和昔日荣光不再所带来的国家挫败感。


Besides, what would a containment policy applied to Russia today look like?	另外，当今适用于俄罗斯的接触政策究竟应该是怎样的？


Russia’s leaders, tucked behind the political safety cushion provided by high energy prices, rightly feel that time is working in their favor, that “we” in the West need Russia more than Russia needs us.	藏身于由高能源价格带来的政治安全垫后面的俄罗斯领导人们有理由认为风水轮流转，西方的“我们”更需要俄罗斯，反之则不然。


To be sure, Russia’s role as the world’s newest “petro-state” is very different from the Russia where life expectancy for men is bordering on levels seen in the poorest African countries.	确切地说，俄罗斯作为世界最新的“石油国”的角色与那个男性（公民）的预期寿命和非洲最穷的国家不相伯仲的俄罗斯是迥然不同的。


But world events are inclining Russia to forget about its bleak demographic outlook and focus instead on its oil-charged future.	然而世界时势正令俄罗斯忘记其晦暗的人口统计前景，而专注于其富油的未来。


Indeed, escalating tensions in the Middle East – particularly Iran’s nuclear ambition – is likely to incline the US to overlook Russia’s diplomatic prickliness even more.	的确，中东日益升级的紧张局势—特别是伊朗的核野心—很可能会让美国进一步忽略俄罗斯在外交上的强硬。


Rapid economic growth in China and India means that both countries will give primacy to a stable flow of energy – and therefore to placid relations with Russia.	中国和印度的快速经济增长意味着两国都将把稳定的能源流作为重中之重—并由此要和俄罗斯保持睦邻友好关系。


Nor can the EU afford a serious crisis with the Kremlin.	欧盟也不敢和克里姆林宫之间发生严重的危机。


The diplomats surrounding Putin may find it natural, given their training, to apply the old Soviet-era methods, and may believe that the moment has come to undo yesterday’s humiliation.	普京身边的外交官们出于自身的教化，可能会认为采用老的苏联时代的做法理所当然，并可能认为洗雪往日耻辱的时候到了。


Defending Russia’s national interests, in their view, demands hard bargaining tactics, even if these now verge on the comical, as in the recent case of supposed British spies hiding secrets in a rock in a Moscow park.	在他们看来，捍卫俄罗斯的国家利益需要强硬的谈判策略，就算是这样的策略已到了可笑的边缘，就像最近指控假想的英国间谍在莫斯科某公园的石头里藏匿秘密一样。


Of course, Russia cannot seriously consider balancing the US with China, let alone with France.	当然，俄罗斯不可能认真地考虑将美国与中国，更别说是与法国等量齐观。


An axis between Paris, Berlin, and Moscow never really made sense even when Schroeder was in power in Germany.	即便是施罗德执政时，巴黎、柏林和莫斯科轴心也从没具有实际的意义。


It is even more absurd today, with Angela Merkel – someone who is without illusions about Russia – as German Chancellor.	在现今对俄罗斯不抱幻想的默克尔任德国总理的情况下，这一概念就显得更为荒谬。


A fine line must be drawn in defining Western policy towards Russia.	在定义西方对俄罗斯的政策时，必须要有一条细微的界线。


Heavy-handed diplomatic pressure – such as threats to exclude Russia from the G8 – must be a weapon of last resort.	强硬的外交压力—例如威胁将俄罗斯排除在8国集团之外—必须是最后的杀手锏。


But resigned acquiescence in whatever Putin’s regime chooses to do would only confirm it in its belief that it now holds all the cards.	但对于普京政权所作所为的听任和默许只会让俄罗斯坚信它现在捏着满手王牌。


The key word to which we should return in defining our policy towards Russia is “predictability.”	在定义对俄政策上，我们应该回归到一个关键词“可预测性”。


The only secure, predictable Russia is one that offers not “Christian energy,” but “rule of law energy.”	唯一安全、可预测的俄罗斯不是那个提供“基督教能源”的俄罗斯，而是那个提供“法治能源”的俄罗斯。


The “democratic energy” of Norway may constitute too distant a goal, but Russia’s role as a predictable energy supplier requires ending the reign of corruption.	来自于挪威的“民主能源”目标过于遥远，但俄罗斯作为一个可预测的能源供应国的角色的前提是终止腐败统治。


Predictability depends on accountability.	可预测性建立在责任之上。


We in the West may badly need Russia’s energy, but if Russia does not want its future to degenerate into Oriental despotism, it must engage with the West in good faith.	我们西方可能急需俄罗斯的能源，但如果俄罗斯不想在未来蜕变为东方式的专制，它就必须满怀诚意与西方接触。


If Putin genuinely seeks to bolster Russia’s global standing, he must not allow Russians’ sense of humiliation in the years since the Soviet collapse to stand in the way.	如果普京真正想提升俄罗斯的全球地位，他就决不能让俄罗斯人在苏联解体以后的多年里形成的耻辱感成为前进路上的绊脚石。


Clearing A Path Through the Brain	寻找穿越大脑之路


MADRID – Our brains are like a dense forest – a complex, seemingly impenetrable terrain of interacting neurons that mediates cognition and behavior.	马德里—我们的大脑像是茂密的森林——一个复杂的、难以穿越的、互相影响的神经元之林，调节着认知和行为。


The great challenge is to uncover its mysteries, that is, to find out how the neurons are structured and mutually connected.	大挑战在于揭示它的神秘性，即找出神经元是如何构造的，又是如何互相联系的。


How close are we to that goal?	我们对这一目标有多接近？


In general, the exchange of information between the billions of neurons that make up the neuronal forest takes place through two types of highly specialized structures: chemical synapses (the majority) and so-called gap junctions (a substrate of one class of electrical synapse).	总体而言，构成神经元之林的数十亿神经元之间的信息交换通过两大高度专业化的结构发生：化学突触（主要）和所谓的缝隙连接（一类电突触的基底层）。


Chemical synaptic transmission involves the release of specific molecules, neurotransmitters, which diffuse through the intercellular space and interact with specific receptors located on an adjacent neuron.	化学突触传导包括释放特定的分子——散布于细胞间空间、与位于相邻神经元特定神经末梢互动的神经递质。


In the electrical transmission mediated by gap junctions, the plasma membranes of adjacent neurons are separated by a gap of about two nanometers (two-billionths of a meter), but contain small channels (the gap junctions) that connect the cytoplasm of the adjoining neurons, permitting the diffusion of small molecules and the flow of electric current.	在缝隙连接发出的电传导中，相邻神经元的细胞膜通过大约两纳米（一米的二十亿分之一）的缝隙分离，但包含连接相邻神经元细胞质的微小通道（缝隙连接），让小分子和电流得以传播和扩散。


The major problem when analyzing the brain is the extreme complexity of its synaptic connections.	分析大脑的主要问题在于其突触连接的极端复杂性。


A very dense network of processes occupies the space between the cell bodies of the neurons, neuroglia (cells that support and protect neurons), and blood vessels.	一个非常密集的过程网络占据着神经元细胞体、神经胶质（支持和保护神经元的细胞）和血管之间的空间。


This space (the neuropil) represents 90-98% of the volume of the human cerebral cortex, with an estimated one billion synapses per cubic millimeter of neuropil.	这类空间（神经毡，neuropil）占据了人类大脑皮层总体积的90—98%，每立方毫米神经毡大约包含十亿个突触。


As if that didn’t make the brain mappers’ job difficult enough, a wide variety of synaptic relationships has been observed.	大脑似乎觉得这还不够让大脑地图绘制者感到困难，我们已经发现了大量不同的突触关系。


And a neurotransmitter may diffuse and act not only on other synaptic contacts, but also on extrasynaptic receptors.	而一种神经递质不但可以在突触联系面上扩散和行动，也可以在突触外神经末梢扩散和行动。


Likewise, not all electrical transmission is mediated by gap junctions, and these forms involve different specialized structures.	类似地，并非所有电传递通过缝隙连接发出，且这些形式包括不同的特定结构。


In addition, electrical interactions take place between closely apposed neuronal elements without obvious membrane specializations.	除此之外，电互动发生于紧密并列的神经元素（neuronal element）之间，不需要明显的细胞膜专业化。


Furthermore, it has been proposed that glial cells are involved in information processing through their bi-directional signaling with neurons.	此外，有意见认为神经胶质细胞通过与神经元的双向信号显示参与信息处理。


And we now know that the activity of neuronal circuits is strongly influenced by neuromodulators (such as dopamine, serotonin, and acetylcholine), which are secreted by a small group of neurons and diffuse through large regions of the nervous system.	我们现在知道，神经元回路的活动受由少数神经元分泌并散布于神经系统广大区域的神经调质（如多巴胺、血清素和乙酰胆碱）的强烈影响。


Neurohormones, released by neurosecretory cells, also have an effect on many brain regions via the circulatory system.	神经分泌细胞释放的神经激素也通过循环系统对许多大脑区域产生影响。


Nonetheless, we are beginning to find our way through the forest.	尽管如此，我们正开始找到穿越森林之路。


The brain’s wiring – its “synaptome” – is the anatomical substrate for a variety of functions that require information to be communicated rapidly from one point to another.	大脑的导线——其“突触连接体”（synaptome）是一系列需要信息从一点快速传递到另一点的功能的解破学基底层。


The neuronal circuits involved in reflexes are a typical example – relatively simple, fast, automatic actions that occur at a subconscious level.	与条件反射有关的神经元回路是一个典型例子——发生于潜意识层面的相对简单、快速、自动的动作。


Other, much more complex functions related to the synaptome include information processing in large but discrete circuits in the sensory and motor systems and in the brain regions associated with language, calculation, writing, and reasoning.	其他与突触连接体有关的复杂得多的功能包括在知觉和运动系统的大型但离散的回路中进行的信息处理以及在与语言、计算、写作和推理有关的大脑区域中进行的信息处理。


The modulatory systems, however, act on multiple neuronal circuits and brain areas.	但是，调节系统在众多神经元回路和大脑区域上行动。


This diffuse action is related to the overall moods and states of the brain (for example, attentiveness, sleep, and anxiety).	这一扩散动作与总体情绪和大脑状态（比如专注度、睡眠和焦虑）有关。


Rapid and automatic serial reconstruction of large tissue volumes, enabled by the recent development of automated electron microscopy techniques, is the method of choice in defining the synaptome.	自动电子显微镜技术的最新发展让我们得以实现快速而自动的大组织体积的序列重建，这是定义突触连接体的选择方法。


Nevertheless, even using this technology, full reconstruction of whole brains is possible only for relatively simple nervous systems.	尽管如此，即使使用了这一技术，完全重建整个大脑也只能在相对简单的神经系统上实现。


Indeed, even for a small mammal like the mouse, it is impossible to reconstruct the brain completely at the ultrastructural level, because the magnification needed to visualize synapses yields relatively small images.	事实上，即使对于老鼠这样的小型哺乳动物，在超微结构水平上完全重建大脑也是不可能的，因为突触需要的放大倍数决定了产生的图像较小。


For example, it has been estimated that if we were to use sections of about 35 square micrometers (millionths of a meter) at a thickness of 20 nanometers, we would need more than 1.4 billion sections to reconstruct fully just one cubic millimeter of tissue.	比如，据估计，如果我们使用厚20纳米、面积35平方微米（一米的一百万分之一）的截面，我们就需要14多亿个截面来完整构造一立方毫米的组织。


So, while complete reconstructions of a small region of the mammalian brain are feasible, structures like the cerebral cortex – with a surface area of 0.22 square meters and a thickness of between 1.5-4.5 millimeters – cannot be fully reconstructed.	因此，尽管完全重建哺乳动物大脑的一小片区域是可行的，但像大脑皮层这样的结构——表面积0. 22平方米，厚度在1.


Nonetheless, despite the technical difficulties, it should be possible to make spectacular advances in unraveling brain organization, even in humans, by adopting appropriate strategies with the tools now available.	尽管如此，虽然存在技术困难，但通过采取合适策略和目前可以获得的技术在揭示大脑组织（甚至是人类大脑组织）方面取得重大进展应该是可能的。


For example, although the synaptic density within a given area and layer may vary, this variability remains within a relatively narrow window, so the statistical distribution of the variation can be modeled.	比如，尽管给定区域和层的突触密度可能不同，但其可变性局限于相对狭窄的范围内，因此其变化的统计分布可以建模。


That means that we do not need to reconstruct the entire layer within a given area to determine the absolute number and types of synapses; instead, the range of variability can be determined by multiple sampling of relatively small regions within that area.	这意味着我们不需要重建给定区域的整个层以决定突触的绝对数字和种类； 其变化的范围可以通过将该区域内相对较小的样本区域乘以一个系数得到。


By combining these detailed structural data with the incomplete light and electron microscopy wiring diagrams, it could be possible to generate a realistic statistical model, rather than attempting to reconstruct the brain in its entirety.	通过把这些细节结构数据与不完全光线和电子显微镜布线图相结合，就可能建立现实统计模型而不必尝试完整地重建大脑。


Computational models of neuronal networks based on real circuits already have become useful tools to study aspects of the functional organization of the brain.	基于真实回路的神经元网络计算机模型已经成为研究大脑功能组织外观的有用工具。


Thus, although a true synaptome of the mammalian brain is a chimerical quest, it is possible that in the near future we will be able to construct a “silicon cortex,” a computerized machine based on a realistic model of the complete anatomical, physiological, and molecular design of the cortical circuit.	因此，尽管真正的哺乳动物大脑突触连接体仍处于空想阶段，但很有可能在不远的未来我们能够构造“硅皮质”——基于皮质回路的完整的解剖、生理和分子设计的现实模型的计算机化机器。


If we succeed, we will finally be able to see the forest – without having to look for every tree.	如果我们获得成功，我们将最终得以看见森林——而不需要找出每一棵树木。


Securing the UN’s Future	保障联合国的未来


SHANGHAI – As the existing international order becomes more fragmented, strong global-governance institutions are crucial for addressing the world’s strategic, economic, and sustainability challenges.	上海——随着现有的国际秩序变得更加四分五裂，强势全球治理机构对迎接世界战略、经济和可持续发展挑战起着至关重要的作用。


And yet rarely have our existing institutions – including, above all, the United Nations – been frailer.	但我们的现有机构——包括，首先是联合国——现在正处在最脆弱的状态。


The UN is not broken, but it is in trouble, particularly as more countries treat it as a polite diplomatic afterthought and seek solutions to major global problems elsewhere.	联合国虽未破裂，但却困难重重，特别是越来越多的国家将其视为礼节性的外交马后炮，并在其他地方寻找全球重大问题的解决办法。


We’ve seen this on issues ranging from Syria to Iran, North Korea, terrorism, cyber security, asylum-seekers and refugees, migration, Ebola, and the emerging crisis in humanitarian-aid funding.	从叙利亚到伊朗、朝鲜、恐怖主义、网络安全、庇护寻求者和难民、移民、埃博拉以及新出现的人道主义援助资金危机等一系列问题上都出现了这样的状况。


While the UN still has many strengths, it also has clear structural weaknesses.	虽然联合国仍具备很多优势，但也不乏明确的结构性弱点。


The gap between what it aspires to do and what it actually does is growing.	联合国期望的目标和实际业绩之间相差越来越远。


But the world needs a UN that not only deliberates on policy, but also delivers in the field.	但世界需要的联合国不仅能讨论政策，而且能将讨论结果落实到实际当中。


The UN matters – a lot.	联合国的重要性不容低估。


It is a deeply embedded component of the post-World War II order.	它是后二战秩序根深蒂固的组成部分。


If its relevance declines – if it slowly becomes “just another NGO” – countries will change their fundamental assumptions about how to deal with one another in the future.	如果其重要性下降——如果它慢慢变为“仅仅又一个非政府组织”——那么各国对未来如何相处的基本认识将会因此而发生变化。


Unilateralism and the law of the jungle – the hallmark of a now-distant past – would return to international relations.	曾经作为遥远过去标志的单边主义和丛林法则将重新回到国际关系当中。


The UN has shown that it is capable of reinventing itself.	联合国已经表明它具备重塑自身的能力。


But now it must do so out of necessity, not convenience.	但现在它实现这一目标已经成为必须、而非选择。


It must urgently re-design its functions, structure, and finance mechanisms to maximize the delivery of measurable results in all areas within its purview, from peace and security to sustainable development, human rights, and humanitarian engagement.	它必须重新设计其功能、结构和融资机制以促使其在从和平安全到可持续发展、人权和人道主义参与等职权范围内的各个领域取得可以衡量的结果。


In particular, the next UN secretary-general should consider taking several key steps.	值得一提的是，下一届联合国秘书长应当考虑采取几项关键步骤。


For starters, he or she should convene a summit-level meeting – a sequel to the 1945 San Francisco Conference, where delegates agreed to the UN’s founding charter – at which member states would reaffirm their commitment to multilateralism as a fundamental principle.	首先，他或她应当召开一次峰会级会议——这次会议将是1945年旧金山会议的后续会议，联合国成立宪章就是各国代表在旧金山会议上通过的——要求各成员国重申针对多边主义这项根本原则的承诺。


The summit should be designed to highlight the critical advantages of cooperation and rebuff the emerging view that multilateralism is simply a burden to bear.	此次峰会应旨在凸显合作的关键优势，同时对多边主义不过是一种负担的新兴观点加以反驳。


Moreover, the new secretary-general should emphasize the UN’s role in building bridges between the great powers, particularly during tense times, and the great powers’ role in enabling the UN to benefit the wider international community.	不仅如此，新任秘书长应强调联合国在大国间的桥梁作用，尤其是在关系紧张时期，还有联合国在大国授权下惠及更广泛国际社会的作用。


Third, the secretary-general should make use of Article 99 of the UN Charter.	第三，秘书长应充分利用《联合国宪章》第99条的规则。


This means introducing new initiatives to address global-leadership challenges, even when an existing initiative may fail.	这意味着引入全新举措应对全球领导权挑战，即使目前实行的措施有失败的可能。


This means establishing a comprehensive doctrine of prevention, one that emphasizes robust long-term policy planning so that the organization can prevent, or at least prepare for, future crises, rather than merely reacting to situations as they emerge.	这意味着制定全面的预防原则，强调稳健的长期政策规划以便使机构有能力预防、或至少为未来的危机做好准备，而不是直到危机爆发才匆忙应对。


Specifically, this agenda should include countering terrorism and violent extremism; enhancing cyber security; limiting the proliferation of lethal autonomous-weapons systems; enforcing international humanitarian law in the context of war (an absolute priority); and developing a comprehensive approach to planetary boundaries and humanity’s ecological footprint, particularly in our oceans.	在战时执行国际人道主义法（毫无争议的重点）； 并尤其在海洋问题上制定全球界限和人类生态足迹等领域的综合方案。


The new leadership must also introduce effective processes and the organizational machinery to implement current major initiatives, including the Sustainable Development Goals.	新领导还必须引入有效的流程和组织机制来落实现有的主要措施，其中包括可持续发展目标。


Failure to achieve the SDGs – which comprise 17 goals and 169 specific targets – would amount to an indictment of the UN’s raison d'être.	未能实现由17个大项和169个具体目标构成的可持续发展目标计划将会对联合国的存在意义构成挑战。


Avoiding such an outcome will require a new global compact between the UN, global and regional development banks, and private finance sources to fund SDG efforts.	避免这种结果需要联合国、全球和地区开发银行以及为可持续发展目标提供资金支持的民间融资机构达成新的全球协议。


The same goes for implementing the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which will require ample investments in energy efficiency and renewable-energy sources to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2º Celsius.	2015年巴黎气候协议的落实也同样如此，人们必须要对能源效率领域和可再生能源进行充分的投资，才能避免出现全球气温上升超过2摄氏度的结果。


The UN’s manifold agendas – peace and security, sustainable development, human rights, and humanitarianism – must be structurally integrated into one strategic continuum, rather than remaining rigid, self-contained institutional silos.	联合国的多项议程——和平安全、可持续发展、人权和人道主义——必须在结构上统一成一个连续的战略，而绝不能最终沦为僵硬、孤立的体制孤岛。


Multidisciplinary “Team UN” groups could be deployed in the field to break down departmental barriers and confront appropriate challenges.	可以尝试在实际工作中部署多学科的“联合国团队”，以打破部门障碍并应对相关挑战。


The groups would operate under a common mandate across all UN agencies, and be led by UN operations directors in each country.	联合国机构所有团队均应按照共同的使命开展工作，并接受不同国家联合国行动主管的领导。


A fifth step should be to integrate women fully and equally into all parts of the UN agenda, not just in discrete areas pertaining to “women’s” issues.	第五步是让女性充分、平等地融入联合国议程的所有部分，而不只满足于融入与“妇女”问题有关的分散的领域当中。


Failure to do this would further undermine peace, security, development, human rights, and already-flagging global economic growth.	实现不了这一目标会进一步威胁和平、安全、发展、人权和已经疲弱的全球经济增长。


According to a 2015 McKinsey report, improving worldwide gender equality could add $12 trillion to global GDP by 2025.	2015年一份麦肯锡报告显示，改善全球各地性别平等到2025年可以为全球GDP贡献12万亿美元。


Likewise, young people should be better included in UN decision-making – not simply as a paternalistic afterthought, but in a way that enables them to help shape their own future.	同样，联合国决策过程中应更多考虑年轻人的意见——这不能局限于家长式的马后炮，而应在某种程度上允许他们规划自己未来的蓝图。


Global youth (those under the age of 25) now represent 42% of the world’s population, and their numbers are growing.	全球青年（25岁以下）现在占全世界人口的42%，而且他们的数量在不断增加。


In particular, we need new policies to address youth unemployment, given that current approaches are failing.	尤其我们需要出台全新政策解决青年失业问题，因为目前的做法是失败的。


More broadly, the UN culture must change – perhaps with a new reward structure – to give priority to operations in the field, rather than to operations at headquarters; to implement reports’ recommendations, rather than just writing more reports; and to measure results on the ground, rather just counting the number of UN conferences held.	从更广义的角度看，联合国文化必须改变——或许应当建立全新奖励制度——从而将施政重点放在现实世界，而不是总部当中； 要落实报告的各项建议，而不是仅仅制造更多的报告；


Finally, the next secretary-general must think practically, understanding that the UN’s capacity to act efficiently, effectively, and flexibly will always run up against budgetary constraints.	最后，下一任秘书长必须务实思考，认识到联合国高效、灵活行动的能力一定会与预算限制相冲突。


There is no sense in hoping that the fiscal heavens will one day magically reopen.	希望财政天堂有一天能神奇地打开根本没有意义。


They won’t.	这样的奇迹不会发生。


Looking beyond these specific items, two core questions loom in the UN’s future: Given the twenty-first century’s global-governance deficit, can the UN’s deliberative bodies step in and make the big decisions appropriate for the situation?	放眼这些具体项目之外，有两个核心问题决定着联合国的未来：鉴于21世纪全球治理方面的赤字，联合国议事机构能否介入并做出符合形势要求的重大决策？


And can the institutional machinery of the UN itself effectively implement policies once they are decided?	而决策一旦作出，联合国本身的机构体制能否有效的落实政策？


With sufficient political will, strong leadership, and a clear, goal-driven reform program, the UN can still be a pillar of a stable, just, and sustainable global order.	只要有充足的政治意愿、强有力的领导、以及目标驱动的明确改革计划，联合国仍然可以成为稳定、公平及可持续全球秩序的支柱。


The alternative is benign neglect, institutional decay, and impotence in the face of the great challenges of our time.	有意无意的忽视、体制腐败和面对我们这个时代重大挑战的无能是另外一种选择。


That would mean an increasingly unstable world for us all.	我们所有人都将因此面对一个越来越不稳定的世界。


Unsafe at Any Speed?	任何时速都不安全？


TOKYO – At least 38 people were killed and more than 200 injured by the recent crash of two high-speed trains near Zhenzhou in Zhejiang, a province in China.	发自东京——最近在中国浙江温州市发生的高速列车相撞事故造成至少38人死亡，200余人受伤。