The alternative – tinkering with reform while hoping that time, EU money, and a watchful eye will move the three Bosnian communities toward political harmony – is not prudent policy.	而替代方案 —— 一面用改革来胡乱修补，一方面寄望于时间，欧盟的资金加上关注的目光能把波斯尼亚的三个政治社团推向和谐 —— 根本不是个有先见之明的政策。


Rescuing Annapolis	拯救安那波利斯和平进程


TOLEDO, SPAIN – The Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that began three months ago at Annapolis do not suffer from a lack of ideas about how to address the conflict’s core issues.	西班牙托雷多--三个月前在安那波利斯开启的巴以和平会谈并不缺乏对于如何解决双方冲突的核心问题的想法。


After years of frustrated attempts to reach a settlement, and with dozens of official and back-channel peace plans at the negotiators’ disposal, there remains little room for creativity in producing an agreement.	在经过多年徒劳地试图和平解决争端，以及十几次根据谈判者的部署而推出的官方以及不公开渠道的和平计划后，能够创造性地达成协议的空间已经非常小了。


But the deeper problem lies elsewhere, in the poverty of the leadership, and in the fragmentation of Palestinian politics.	但是更深层的问题并不在于此，而是在于领导力的缺乏以及巴勒斯坦政治上的分裂。


Indeed, the only man who could have made a peace agreement based on a two-state solution legitimate in Palestinians’ eyes, Yasser Arafat, took this legitimacy with him to the grave.	事实上，在巴勒斯坦人眼里唯一能够合法地基于两国共存的方案达成和平协议的人阿拉法特已经将这种合法性与他自己一起带入了坟墓。


President Mahmoud Abbas was never an inspiring figure for Palestinians. With the loss of Gaza to Hamas, his political clout has been diminished even further.	阿巴斯总统在巴勒斯坦人眼里从来就不是一个令人鼓舞的人物，而他的政治影响力自从把加沙丢给了哈马斯后被进一步削弱了。


In fact, Abbas does not even control the militias of his own party, Fatah, which have been even more active than Hamas in staging terrorist attacks against Israel.	事实上，阿巴斯甚至无法控制他自己政党的军队法塔赫，后者在对以色列发动恐怖袭击方面甚至比哈马斯更猖獗。


The Palestinian Authority’s rule over the West Bank would have collapsed long ago if it were not for the Israelis’ daily incursions against Hamas and Fatah in areas under Abbas’ control.	如果不是以色列人常常对阿巴斯控制的领土上的哈马斯和法塔赫发动袭击，巴勒斯坦民族权利机构恐怕早就失去对西岸的控制了。


Throughout history, nationalist movements, almost invariably consisting of radical and pragmatic wings, had to split in order to reach the Promised Land.	在历史上，几乎无一例外地包含有极端主义和实用主义势力的民族主义运动最后都不得不进行分裂以达到幸福的乐土。


Consensus is the negation of leadership and frequently a recipe for political paralysis.	一致意见是对领导力的否认，却常常是造成政治麻木的根源所在。


Zionism is a case in point.	犹太复国主义是与此相关的一个好例子。


If Menachem Begin’s ultra-nationalist Irgun had joined a coalition with Ben-Gurion’s pragmatic Mapai in 1947, Zionists would have rejected the partition of Palestine, and Ben-Gurion would not have been allowed to declare the Jewish state in May 1948.	如果贝京极端民族主义的伊尔贡（利库德集团的前身）在1947年与本古里安的以色列工人党结盟的话，那么犹太复国主义者就会拒绝将巴勒斯坦分裂开来，而本古里安就不会被允许在1948年5月宣布成立这个犹太国家。


Of course, this lesson should not be elevated to a dogma.	当然，这样的经验教训不应该被上升到教条的程度。


In the Palestinian case, with the lack of the kind of leadership that Arafat provided, the radical wing, Hamas, cannot be discarded from the process leading to Palestinian statehood.	在巴勒斯坦的问题上，因为缺乏阿拉法特那样的领导力，所以极端主义的哈马斯就不能被排除在将推动巴勒斯坦最终建国的进程之外。


Moreover, unlike in the case of Israel, the radical wing in Palestine represents the democratic majority, as it emerged victorious from the elections two years ago.	此外，与以色列的情况不同，极端势力在巴勒斯坦代表着民主的大多数，它在两年前的选举中一举获胜就是很好的证明。


As a result, the question that dominates Israeli discourse nowadays is whether or not to invade Hamas-controlled Gaza.	其结果是，今天在以色列人的谈话中首要的问题就是是否应该入侵哈马斯所控制的加沙。


Locked in a self-imposed conceptual paralysis that does not allow for a non-military solution, Israel refuses to see that Hamas’s rocket attacks on Israeli territory are not intended to draw Israel into an invasion.	以色列人陷入这种自我强加的、不允许出现非武力的解决方案的观念麻痹中，无法认识到哈马斯用火箭弹袭击以色列领土并不是为了让以色列人来入侵他们。


Instead, they are an attempt to establish a new deterrent against Israel that would force it to agree to a cease-fire ( Tahdiye) .	相反，他们是为了拥有对以色列的新的威慑力量，从而迫使它同意停火（Tahdiye）。


It is self-deceiving to assume that those on the Palestinian side involved throughout the discredited Oslo process can still muster the necessary popular legitimacy to win support for a compromise with Israel that would require painful concessions on issues central to the Palestinian national ethos.	巴勒斯坦这面全程参与了信誉扫地的奥斯陆和平进程的那些人依然能够获得在公众眼里必要的合法性，从而赢得与以色列达成妥协所需要的在巴勒斯坦民族精神问题上做出痛苦让步。 这种想法绝对是在自欺欺人。


Nor is it at all clear that a major invasion of Gaza could bring end the attacks on Israel.	而大规模入侵加沙是否真的能够终结对以色列的袭击也很值得疑问。


Hamas, with the help of Iran, has been undergoing a process of Hezbollahization.	得到伊朗支持的哈马斯一直在向真主党化过渡。 它的小分队不再仅仅是恐怖分子的小团伙；


Its units are no longer simple terrorist cells; they are highly trained and well-equipped combat units, and its rockets, like those in southern Lebanon, are launched with timers from crude underground silos.	而是训练有素并且装备精良的战斗分队。 而它的火箭弹就像那些在黎巴嫩南部的火箭弹一样是从简陋的地下导弹发射井里用定时器控制发射的。


The traumatic experience of the Lebanon war in 2006 has made Israel’s leadership wary of yet another asymmetric war where a clear-cut victory can never be claimed, and where the arithmetic of blood is always bound to turn the casualties of the superior force, Israel, into a domestic crisis.	2006年的黎巴嫩所带来的巨大创伤使以色列领导人对于另一次双方力量不对称的战争显得非常谨慎。 他们不敢保证是否能取得明确胜利，而对伤亡人数的估计肯定会使力量完全占优的以军的伤亡引发国内的危机。


Israel must change its strategic objective in Gaza from toppling Hamas to rescuing the Annapolis process, and with it the last chance for a two-state solution.	以色列必须把它在加沙的战略目标从推翻哈马斯变为拯救安那波利斯和平进程，以及由此而来的实现两国共存方案的最后一次机会。


This requires not only a cease-fire with Hamas, but also a return to a Palestinian national unity government that alone can offer the peace process the vital legitimacy that it lacks today.	这不但要求与哈马斯实现停火，还要恢复巴勒斯坦民族联合政府，因为只有它能够提供今天的和平进程所缺乏的重要的合法性。


Without the resurrection of the Mecca agreement, which put Hamas and the PLO in a coalition government, Hamas cannot expect to secure its control of Gaza and the PLO cannot deliver a peace settlement with Israel.	如果不重新恢复使哈马斯和巴解组织组成联合政府的麦加协议，哈马斯就无法确保它对加沙的控制，而巴勒斯坦也无法与以色列达成和平协议。


The notion, dear to the architects of the Annapolis process, that peace can be achieved only when a wedge is driven between Palestinian “moderates” and “extremists” is a misconception.	安那波利斯和平进程的缔造者们所强调的思想，即只有把巴勒斯坦“温和派”和“极端派”分隔开才能实现的和平的想法是完全错误的。


A Palestinian national unity government would not impede a settlement for the simple reason that the moderates now negotiating with Israel must in any case strive for an agreement that the extremists could not label as a treacherous sell-out.	一个巴勒斯坦民族联合政府绝对不会阻碍达成和平协议，一个简单的理由就是现在与以色列谈判的温和派无论如何都会努力使他们达成的协议不会被极端主义者贴上背叛的标签。


Hence, the difference between the Palestinian positions in the current negotiations and those they may hold when a unity government is restored would only be very minor.	因此，巴勒斯坦一方在目前谈判中的立场与恢复联合政府后可能会表现出的立场之间的差异将是非常小的。


Rescuing a Revolution	拯救革命


Brussels – There is no more depressing sight in politics than a leader who, desperate to cling to power, ruins his country in the process.	布鲁塞尔–在政治上没有比看到一个领导人因为急切地想抓住权力不放而牺牲了他的国家更令人沮丧的事情了。


By his recent actions, President Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine now looks like he has joined the long list of rulers who have sacrificed their country’s future simply to prolong their misrule.	而乌克兰总统尤先科最近的行为使他看上去也已经加入了那些仅仅为了延续暴政而牺牲国家未来的统治者的行列。


Yushchenko’s recent moves in both politics and economics suggest that his instinct for self-preservation knows no limits.	尤先科最近在政治和经济的动作表明他自我保护的本能是没有界限的。


Once a proud supporter of the free market and the man who banished hyper-inflation in Ukraine in the 1990’s, Yushchenko has in recent weeks vetoed – sometimes on flimsy grounds, and sometimes for no stated reason at all – a series of vital privatizations.	作为一个自由市场骄傲的支持者以及曾经在二十世纪九十年代平息过乌克兰过高的通货膨胀的人，尤先科却在最近几周否决了一系列重要的私有化动作，对此他有时给出了一些很难站得住脚的理由，有时则根本不表明任何理由。


He blocked the sale of regional energy companies, for example, because he claims that their privatization will threaten Ukraine’s “national security,” though it is corrupt and incompetent state management of these companies that is threatening Ukraine’s security by making it vulnerable to energy cut-offs.	他阻止了一些地区能源公司的出售，理由是它们的私有化会损害乌克兰的“国家安全”，尽管这些公司的腐败和无能的管理才真正损害了乌克兰的安全，因为它们使乌克兰一旦面临能源供应被切断就显得很脆弱。


Yushchenko seems motivated only by a desire to damage his prime minister, Yuliya Tymoshenko, who he perceives as the biggest threat to his re-election in 2010.	尤先科这样做似乎只是为了伤害他的总理季莫申科，因为后者在他眼里是对他在2010年谋求连任的最大威胁。


To undermine the Tymoshenko cabinet even more, Ukraine’s central bank, under the leadership of a presidential crony, is pursuing a policy that is importing high inflation.	为了进一步削弱季莫申科内阁，乌克兰中央银行在一位总统密友的领导下，正在执行一种会导致高通货膨胀的政策。


When confronted about this, Volodymyr Stelmakh, the bank’s governor, is said to have told Tymoshenko that his policies would destroy her government before they broke the back of the economy.	在遭到质问时，央行行长Volodymyr Stelmakh据称告诉季莫申科他的政策在破坏经济的基础前会先毁掉她的政府。


In politics, too, Yushchenko is playing with fire, having lost the support of most of “Our Ukraine,” the party he created.	尤先科在政治上也在玩火，并且已经失去了他一手创建的“我们的乌克兰”党大多数成员的支持。


Since his victory in 2004, Yushchenko’s popularity ratings have plummeted to around 8%.	自从他在2004年大选中获胜以来，尤先科的支持率已经暴跌到了现在的8%左右。


As a result, the party has been reduced to junior-partner status in Tymoshenko’s coalition government.	其结果是，他的党在季莫申科组建的联合政府中被摆在一个次要的位置。


Instead of trying to recover support by pursuing the reforms and privatizations that he promised during the Orange Revolution, Yushchenko is planning to take the few members of “Our Ukraine” that he still controls and forge a strategic alliance with the Party of the Regions, the very party that opposed Ukraine’s turn to democracy and an open society.	尤先科没有像他在橙色革命期间所允诺的那样推动改革和私有化以重新赢得支持，而是计划拉拢几个少数几个他依然可以控制的“我们的乌克兰”的成员与地区党组成战略同盟，而地区党正是反对乌克兰转变为民主和开放社会的。


To clinch this deal, the Regions would dump their unelectable leader, Viktor Yanukovych, as their presidential candidate and adopt Yushchenko as their standard bearer.	为了达成协议，地区党将放弃将他们没有候选资格的领导人亚努科维奇作为他们的总统候选人，转而接受尤先科作为他们的领袖。


Yushchenko has only himself to blame for his political predicament. His decision in 2006 to bring Yanukovych out of the wilderness and back into the premiership was an act from which he has never recovered.	对于他现在所面临的政治困境，尤先科只能怪他自己。 他在2006年让在野的亚努科维奇重新回到总理宝座上的决定从此使他陷入了困境。


Only when Yanukovych sought to use parliament to strip the president of his powers did Yushchenko summon the will to fight back, dismissing Yanukovych’s government and calling for a special election last year.	只是在亚努科维奇寻求议会的支持以剥夺他的总统权力时，尤先科才奋力反击，解散了亚努科维奇政府并且要求在去年进行一次特别选举。


That election, however, was won by Tymoshenko, who has parlayed her return to power into a commanding lead in the polls for the coming presidential election.	然而赢得那次大选的是季莫申科，她成功地利用重新回到权力中心的机会在对即将到来的总统大选的民意调查中一直遥遥领先。


Throttling Ukraine’s economy and political system need not have been Yushchenko’s legacy. After he came to power in 2005 on a huge wave of popular support, he started off well.	扼杀乌克兰的经济和政治体系本不应该成为尤先科所留下的遗产。 在他2005年因为民众声势浩大的支持而登上权力宝座后，一开始他干得非常出色。


The economy was growing, and he and Tymoshenko began to tackle the country’s black hole of corruption.	经济一直在增长，而他和季莫申科开始着手解决这个国家的贪污黑洞。


Moreover, he seemed genuinely committed to reconciliation between Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east and Ukrainian-speaking west.	此外，他看上去很聪明地致力于乌克兰讲俄罗斯语的东部地区和讲乌克兰语的西部地区之间的和解。


Throughout his presidency, he has overseen fair elections and a free and vibrant press.	在他的总统任期内，他维护了公正的选举以及自由而充满活力的媒体。


But Yushchenko’s chronic dithering and poor political judgement consistently undermine his fundamental democratic credentials.	但是尤先科常常表现出的优柔寡断以及糟糕的政治判断能力不断损害了他基本的民主资质。


Sadly, he now appears poised to make another serious political miscalculation, because he is backing a radical constitutional reform aimed at creating a purely presidential system.	令人遗憾的是，他现在似乎又在做出另一个政治误判，因为他支持旨在创建纯粹的总统制的根本的宪法改革。


That proposal has no chance of success in Ukraine’s parliament.	这样的提案在乌克兰的议会中根本不可能通过。


Yushchenko sought to circumvent parliament by way of a national referendum, but Ukraine’s Constitutional court has ruled that only parliament may determine how constitutional reform is to occur.	尤先科寻求通过全民公决而迫使议会让步，但是乌克兰的宪法法庭已经裁决说只有议会才能决定是否应该进行宪法改革。


Although Yushchenko seems unable to save himself politically, Europe can help both him and Ukraine’s democracy.	尽管尤先科似乎已经无力在政治上拯救他自己了，但是欧洲还是能够拯救他和乌克兰的民主。


Tymoshenko is prepared to offer Yushchenko a compromise that Europe’s leaders should urge him to accept. Her proposals for constitutional reform would make Ukraine a pure parliamentary republic, while retaining a president as head of state and commander in chief of the armed forces.	季莫申科已经准备向尤先科提出一份妥协方案，而欧洲的领导人将敦促他接受这份提案，即通过宪法改革使乌克兰成为一个纯粹的议会制共和国，同时保留总统作为国家元首和武装部队的最高统帅。


Yushchenko can yet secure an honorable place in history if, instead of undermining and obstructing Tymoshenko at every turn, he supports her anti-corruption initiatives and constitutional reform, the latter aimed at bringing Ukraine’s political system closer to Europe’s parliamentary democracies as well as to facilitate Ukraine’s European integration.	这样尤先科就可以在历史上保留住一个荣耀的位置，如果他能够放弃在处处损害和阻挠季莫申科的做法，转而支持她反腐败的倡议以及宪法改革方案的话。 季莫申科的宪法改革方案将使乌克兰的政治体制而接近欧洲的议会制民主体制，并且使乌克兰能够更快地融入欧洲。


Given that Yushchenko has almost no chance of winning the next presidential election, Tymoshenko has made him a generous offer.	考虑到尤先科几乎没有机会赢得下一次总统大选，季莫申科的方案对他来说应该是很慷慨的举动了。


If accepted, it promises Ukraine, which aspires to EU membership and is currently negotiating a Free Trade Agreement with the Union, the stable, effective, and democratic government that it needs.	如果他接受了这一方案，那么将使乌克兰这个渴望成为欧盟成员国并且现在正在与欧盟谈判自由贸易协定的国家获得它所需要的稳定、高效和民主的政府。


Europe’s leaders, who helped broker a peaceful and democratic end to the Orange Revolution, should once again help Ukraine avoid political deadlock.	曾经帮助使橙色革命获得一个和平、民主的结局的欧洲领导人现在应该再一次帮助乌克兰走出政治僵局。


Rescuing Nuclear Non-Proliferation	拯救核不扩散体系


As a declared non-nuclear weapon state, Indonesia has always striven for nuclear non-proliferation - indeed, for a world free of nuclear weapons.	作为一个宣布放弃研制和拥有核武器的国家，印度尼西亚一直在致力于防止核扩散的工作，以实现一个没有核武器威胁的安全世界。


But the cause of nuclear non-proliferation is now in deep trouble, as countries are once again tempted to acquire the means of oblivion.	但是核不扩散却由于许多国家一再试图逃避其约束而陷入极大的困境中。


For over three decades, the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been the cornerstone of the world's non-proliferation regime, a position that derives from growing acknowledgement of the legal and normative standards that it established.	在过去的三十年里，由于《核不扩散条约》（NPT）所建立的法定标准的获得了越来越广泛的认可， NPT一直是全球核不扩散机制的基石。


Adherence to the NPT has increased steadily, reaching a stage of near universal acceptance.	基于各国对《核不扩散条约》（NPT）的认同度的不断增加，该条约现已获得近乎全世界的承认。


But there is a general feeling that implementation has fallen short of expectations, particularly with regard to nuclear disarmament.	但有看法认为《核不扩散条约》的具体执行，特别是在核裁军范围内，仍低于预期。


Moreover, there is increasing concern over non-compliance and the associated risks of proliferation - to worrisome states, particularly in Asia, and, even more ominously, into the hands of private individuals and terrorist organizations.	并且，国际上越来越关注和担忧一些国家对条约的不合作行为，以及由此引发的核武器扩散至不稳定国家（尤其亚洲）的危险。 更令人担忧的是，核武器一旦落入个人或恐怖组织之手，将对世界带来更大的威胁。


In the face of these threats, what can be done to strengthen the non-proliferation regime?	面对如此多的威胁，应该采取哪些举措以加强核不扩散体制呢？


The NPT regime stands on three pillars: non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.	NPT机制是建立在核不扩散，核裁军以及和平利用核能这三座基石之上。


The Treaty envisages the construction of each pillar through a matching series of steps taken by both nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states.	《核不扩散条约》通过核武器拥有国和无核国家共同采取一系列相应行动来实现条约的三座基石间的平衡。


Strengthening the non-proliferation regime in order to confront today's challenges would require no more than following this strategy.	强化核不扩散机制需要的正是严格履行这一条约，以应对今日面临的挑战。


Unfortunately, this has not been the case since 1995, when the NPT Review and Extension Conference made the duration of the NPT's validity indefinite.	不幸的是，自从1995年起条约就未被严格履行，因为当年的"NPT审查及扩大会议"对NPT的有效时限未作出明确规定。


The Conference, which included the original five nuclear weapon states (the United States, Russia, China, France, and Great Britain) as well as a great number of other UN members, did not reach consensus on a "Final Declaration."	大会的成员国们，包括五个最初的核武器拥有国（美国、俄罗斯、中国、法国和英国）和其他大多数联合国成员国，并未就一份"最终宣言"达成一致。


But it did adopt three other decisions, entitled Strengthening the Review Process for the Treaty , Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament , and Resolution on the Middle East .	但是各国就另外三项决定达成了共识：《增强条约履行过程的审查》，《核不扩散和核裁军的目标和原则》以及《中东问题的解决方案》。


These constituted a unified package that was meant to be implemented in its entirety.	这些协议组成了核不扩散的一揽子计划，应全面贯彻实施。


Five years later, the 2000 Review Conference finally adopted a Final Document , which contained concrete measures, including "13 practical steps" for systematic and progressive efforts to achieve nuclear disarmament.	五年后，2000年度NPT审查会议终于采纳了一份《最终文件》，文件的具体措施包括实施"十三个操作步骤"，以系统、逐步地达到核裁军的目的。


The evolution of the NPT - its adaptation to new environments and problems that were not anticipated at the time of its adoption - appeared to ensure the Treaty's continuing effective implementation.	NPT针对新形势、新问题进行了一系列的调整，这些举措将确保条约持续有效的实施，而这些形势是NPT建立之初所无法预计的。


But actions speak louder than words, and challenges to the NPT regime have continued to undermine its basic principles, causing considerable backsliding.	但事实胜于雄辩，那些NPT体制面临的挑战正继续破坏条约的基本原则，并造成了令人担忧的倒退。


Today, the challenges posed by proliferation are more complex than ever:	今天，核扩散对世界和平的挑战比以往任何时期都要复杂：


· proliferation of nuclear weapons technologies by one de facto nuclear-capable state;	l "事实上拥有核武器"的国家的核武器技术的扩散；


· one stated withdrawal from the NPT;	l NPT条约签约国的退出；


· one case of non-compliance;	l 不履行NPT条约的问题；


· increasing assertion of the role of nuclear weapons in military doctrines;	l 军事理论中核武器的作用被不断夸大；


· improvements in nuclear weapons by some nuclear weapon states.	l 一些拥有核武器国家对现有核武器的更新。


The possibility that non-state actors could acquire nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction poses an especially grave new threat.	如今，非条约成员国也可能获取核武器或其他大规模杀伤性武器，这构成新的更大的威胁。


Confronting it effectively will require the support of all NPT signatories.	有效解决这一问题则需要所有NPT成员国的支持。


But a continuing imbalance and selectivity in the emphasis placed by different states on the Treaty's three pillars damages the unity that the NPT regime needs.	然而由于各国执行情况的持续不均衡，以及在对待条约三项基本原则的侧重各有不同，损害了NPT机制所需要的整体一致性。


In particular, imbalances in implementing the NPT obligations by the nuclear haves and have-nots are sharpening.	有核国家与无核国家在履行条约规定义务上的不均衡的矛盾尤为激化。


For example, some countries want to develop smaller and "usable" nuclear weapons designed for pre-emptive or preventive military action.	例如，有些国家希望发展小型及实用的核武器用于防卫性军事行动。


Many non-nuclear weapon states, particularly those from the developing world, remain frustrated with the fact that peaceful nuclear cooperation is yet to be fully realized.	很多无核国家，特别是那些发展中国家，对其和平利用核能的合作构想未得到充分实现而感到沮丧。


These challenges to the non-proliferation regime not only jeopardize the credibility, efficacy, and viability of the Treaty; they have also cast a long shadow of doubt on the future of nuclear disarmament itself.	这些关于核不扩散的难题不仅危及到条约的可信性、有效性和持续发展性，并对未来的核裁军投下了一道怀疑阴影。


Deliberations and negotiations both within the NPT regime and in other areas of disarmament have reached a difficult stage, if not a stalemate.	如果还不能被称为僵局的话，至少NPT框架内和其他裁军领域内的磋商和会谈已经到了一个非常困难的阶段，。


To jump-start progress, all NPT signatories should re-affirm that the Treaty's provisions are mutually reinforcing and must be pursued jointly and faithfully.	为重启这一系列协商进程，所有的NPT成员国需要重新认识到条约的各项规定是相辅相成的，应该得到全面切实的执行。


The most dangerous force eroding the Treaty's credibility is the inclination of some nuclear-weapon states to reinterpret at will the package of agreements reached in the past.	对条约的权威性最大的威胁则来自于一些核武器拥有国对于全部条款的随意解释。


Despite the NPT's shortcomings, the overwhelming majority of non-nuclear states fully comply with their Treaty obligations.	尽管NPT框架有着众多缺陷，绝大多数无核国家依然完全履行其对条约的义务。


This constrains the number of nuclear weapon states, thus fulfilling one of the NPT's most important goals.	这样限制了拥有核武器的国家的数目，进而实现了NPT一项最重要目标。


One of the best ways to strengthen the non-proliferation regime now would be to implement fully the agreements that have already been reached.	加强核不扩散框架机制的最有效的办法就是切实履行已经达成的协议。


Selectivity and narrow reinterpretation can only weaken the Treaty.	选择性地狭义地解释协议条款只会弱化条约的作用。


Developing a new set of non-proliferation mechanisms would be a waste time that we cannot afford, because any new protocol would have a dubious legal basis and encourage further imbalances in implementation.	建立一套新的防止核扩散机制只会浪��我们宝贵的时间，造成无法负担的后果，因为任何新的协议都没有确定的法律基础，并会在执行时造成更严重的不均衡。


If we are serious about saving the non-proliferation regime, the time to act is now.	如果我们确实有意拯救核不扩散体系，现在就应行动起来。


Rescuing Yemen	拯救也门


LONDON – Yemen has suddenly joined Afghanistan and Pakistan as a risk to global security.	伦敦 —— 人们突然发现，也门正和阿富汗及巴基斯坦一样对全球安全造成着威胁。


Indeed, it is increasingly seen as a nascent failed state and potential replacement host for Al Qaeda.	事实上，越来越多的人将也门看作新生的失败国家，它可能替代阿富汗和巴基斯坦成为基地组织新的庇护所。


The attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day by a young Nigerian man trained by Al Qaeda in Yemen appeared to open the West’s eyes to the country’s problems.	曾在也门受过基地组织训练的一名尼日利亚男青年企图在圣诞节当天炸毁一架飞往底特律的航班，这似乎让西方国家意识到了也门问题的严重性。


Following that failed attack, US President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown jointly pushed a conference in London to propose solutions for the previously overlooked crises in Yemen.	这次失败的袭击活动后，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马和英国首相戈登·布朗联合发起召开伦敦会议，为此前被忽略的也门危机寻找解决方案。


But if the conference focuses too narrowly on Al Qaeda’s presence in Yemen, it will do more harm than good.	但如果这次会议只讨论也门的基地组织问题，其结果肯定得不偿失。


Instead, the conference must aim to address broader issues of political and social stability within Yemen.	相反，这次会议主要应当解决也门的政治和社会稳定问题。


Al Qaeda is not the primary danger to Yemen’s security and stability, but Yemen’s geography and political problems are well suited to its activities.	基地组织虽不是也门安全和稳定的主要威胁，但也门的地理和政治问题却与该组织活动有着密切的关系。


A particularly attractive feature is the prevalence of the severe Wahhabi religious dogma, which was exported to Yemen by Saudi Arabia but now provides fertile ground for recruiting disaffected young Yemeni men for assaults on Saudi Arabia.	其中尤以极端瓦哈比教派的泛滥最受人关注，该教派最初由沙特阿拉伯输入到也门，但现在却为招募心怀不满的也门青年，反过来袭击沙特提供了肥沃的土壤。


Yemen ’s central problems are two: the ongoing civil war that the government is waging against the Houthi tribe in the country’s north, and the suppression of a secessionist movement in the south.	也门有两大核心问题悬而未决：其一是政府与北部胡塞部队间持续不断的内战，还有就是镇压南方分离主义运动。


It is the Yemeni government’s inability to find a political solution to these problems that has led Yemen to the brink of fragmentation.	正是因为也门政府无力达成政治解决方案才导致也门走到了分裂的边缘。


So far, Obama and Brown seem unable to fully grasp the fact that Yemen’s problems go well beyond Al Qaeda’s presence in the country.	到现在为止，奥巴马和布朗似乎还没能理解也门问题远比也门的基地组织问题宽泛得多。


As a result, they appear to be playing into Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s hands.	他们这样的疏忽为也门总统 阿里·阿卜杜拉·萨利赫提供了可乘之机。


Saleh wants to use the London conference as a means to leverage Western backing, particularly military aid, to pursue his wars against the Houthis and the southern secessionists.	萨利赫希望利用伦敦会议求得包括军事援助在内的西方支持，从而与胡塞军队和南方分离主义份子继续作战。


Saleh has regularly employed the danger of Al Qaeda to obtain additional financial and security support from both the West and Saudi Arabia.	利用基地组织威胁从西方国家和沙特求得更多财政和安全援助是萨利赫的惯用伎俩。


For him, the attempted Christmas Day bombing was a gift from heaven.	对于他来讲，圣诞日的炸机企图无异于喜从天降。


Saleh’s dilemma is that Western aid may now come with increased interference in Yemen’s internal affairs at a time when he wants the world to turn a blind eye to his conduct of the country’s civil wars.	萨利赫的两难之处在于他希望世界对他的内战行径视而不见，而西方援助国可能会籍此加大对也门内政问题的干预力度。


The West and Saleh do not have the same enemy.	西方国家和萨利赫并非同仇敌忾。


Al Qaeda is the West’s enemy, while Saleh’s true enemies are the Houthis and the separatists of the south.	基地组织是西方的敌人，而萨利赫真正的敌人则是胡塞人和南方分离主义份子。


But if the West is to curtail Al Qaeda’s activities in Yemen, it will need to push Saleh into reaching accommodations with both the Houthis and the southerners, and this will undoubtedly mean sharing power with them.	但如果西方希望遏制基地组织在也门的活动，就需要推动萨利赫与胡塞和南方叛军达成谅解，而这无疑将意味着双方共享权力。


Saleh will undoubtedly resist such an effort.	这样的努力肯定将遭到萨利赫的抵制。


Last December, Saleh called for national dialogue, but on his own terms: the Houthis and the southern leaders are to be excluded from the discussions unless they support the Yemeni constitution that has kept Saleh in power for decades.	去年 12 月，萨利赫号召举行全国对话，但前提是必须遵守他所制定的章程：胡塞人和南方领袖将被排除在谈判之外，除非他们支持让萨利赫几十年来一直执掌大权的也门宪法。


But Saleh’s hardline approach is failing.	但萨利赫的强硬路线遭到了失败。


More than half of Yemen’s territory is falling out of government control.	超过半数的也门领土都脱离了政府控制。


The US should not be surprised by any of these developments because American involvement in Yemen is not new.	美国应该对事态发展并不感到意外，因为美国也并不是刚刚参与也门事务。


Al Qaeda in Yemen has been targeted since the USS Cole was bombed while in the port of Aden in 2000.	科尔号战舰 2000 年在亚丁港遭袭之后，也门的基地组织就已经成为打击目标。


Missile strikes by US drones last December in Abein and Shabwa killed a number of Al Qaeda members, as well as civilians.	去年 12 月雄蜂无人驾驶机对 Abein 和 Shabwa 两省展开空袭，在炸死一些基地组织成员的同时，也导致不少平民丧生。


Fighting Al Qaeda in Yemen through such means may temporarily reduce terrorism, but it will not end it.	通过上述方式打击基地组织可以暂时缓解恐怖主义，但却无法解决根本问题。


The real question is whether the West will address Yemen’s failed political and military strategies, which are the root cause of Al Qaeda’s mushrooming presence in the country.	真正的问题在于西方国家是否会修改也门失败的政治和军事策略，正是策略上的失败导致基地组织在也门发展迅速。


Only if Western intervention aims to rescue the Yemeni state from itself will there be any possibility to contain Al Qaeda.	只有当西方干预以挽救也门为目的，才有可能对基地组织构成真正的遏制。


And it is not just the Yemeni state that is at fault.	处置失当的不只是也门政府。


Yemen’s neighbors have also played a role.	也门的邻国同样难辞其咎。


Saudi Arabia exported both its Wahhabism and Al Qaeda to Yemen by funding thousands of madrassas where fanaticism is taught.	沙特阿拉伯出资建立了数千所圣战学校，宣扬狂热和盲从，将瓦哈比主义和基地组织一股脑输出到也门。


Moreover, since the 1991 Gulf War, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been expelling Yemeni workers.	此外， 1991 年海湾战争后，沙特和科威特就一直在驱逐也门劳工。


Last month alone, 54,000 Yemeni workers were expelled from Saudi Arabia.	仅上月一月，就有 54,000 名也门劳工被从沙特驱逐。


Although Yemen is geographically part of the Arabian Peninsula, it was excluded from the Gulf Cooperation Council, primarily because its size – it is the most populous state on the peninsula – would have given it great influence.	尽管也门在地理位置上归属于阿拉伯半岛，但却由于国土面积的原因被排除在海湾合作委员会之外 —— 也门是半岛上人口最为稠密的国家 —— 这本来应该是增加也门影响力的砝码。


In fact, the Yemeni population exceeds the population of all six GCC members combined.	事实上，也门的人口超过了海湾合作委员会六大成员国人口的总和。


Saleh received a strong endorsement from the GCC last December for his domestic wars, and Saudi Arabia has been in direct military confrontation with the Houthis, its army having crossed Yemen’s border.	去年 12 月，海湾合作委员会强力支持了萨利赫的内战计划，沙特更派出军队进驻也门边境，与胡塞人直接形成了军事对峙。


But the GCC members’ failure to open their economies – which are always in need of guest workers – to Yemen’s young men is short-sighted.	虽然一直需要外来的劳务输入，但海湾合作委员会国家拒绝向也门青年开放经济的做法既愚蠢又短视。


The US and Britain, both patrons of the GCC, must encourage its members to include Yemen if they want to solve its problems. Yemenis are known as skilled labourers.	作为赞助国，要想解决也门问题，美英两国必须鼓励海湾合作委员会成员对也门采取接纳的态度。 也门人是出了名的熟练劳工。


So, instead of exporting religious radicalism to Yemen, importing its manpower could neutralize Yemen’s problems.	因此，放弃对也门输出宗教极端主义，转而从那里输入人力资源能够部分解决也门问题。


The forthcoming London conference could prove to be either a trap for the West or the beginning of a true effort at the kind of domestic reform that can prevent Yemen from becoming another Afghanistan.	即将开始的伦敦会议或者是西方国家的陷阱，或者是能防止也门成为另一个阿富汗的真正国内改革运动的开始。


If the West buys into Saleh’s depiction of a war against Al Qaeda, it will be trapped into supporting him and his failed policies.	如果西方国家听信了萨利赫与基地组织作战的描述，它们将会落入萨利赫的陷阱，支持萨氏和他失败的政策。


But if it looks beyond terrorism to the root causes of the problem, and presses Saleh to begin to share power, Yemen need not become another safe haven for terrorists.	但如果西方国家能够透过恐怖主义的表象看到真正的问题所在，敦促萨利赫开始共享权力，那么也门就不一定会成为恐怖分子的避风港。


Reserve Reform	储备改革


NEW YORK – Both China and the United Nations Commission on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System have called for a new global reserve system.	纽约－中国和联合国国际货币金融体系改革委员会都曾呼吁建立新的全球储备体系。


That issue should be at the top of the agenda when the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee next meet.	建立新的全球储备体系问题，应该是国际货币基金组织国际货币金融委员会下次会议的首要议题。


The essential idea is quite simple: in the long run, an international monetary system cannot be built on a national currency – a point made a half-century ago by the Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin.	要求建立新的全球储备体系所基于的核心观点相当简单：长期来看，国际货币体系不可能建立在一个主权国家的货币之上——比利时裔美国人罗伯特·特里芬早在半个世纪之前就表达了这样的观点。


Recognition of this fundamental problem was the reason why the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) were created in the 1960’s.	国际货币基金组织于20世纪60年代创立特别提款权(SDRs)，就是因为世界各国认识到了这一根本问题。


The dollar standard with which the world has lived since the early 1970’s has three fundamental flaws.	世界自20世纪70年代早期以来所经历的美元本位制度，有三个根本的缺陷。


First, as with all systems that preceded it, it puts the burden of adjustment on deficit countries, not on surplus countries.	首先，与之前所有的制度一样，美元本位制度是让国际收支逆差的国家承担调节收支平衡的责任，而不是让国际收支顺差的国家承担这个责任。


The main exception is the United States, which, thanks to its reserve currency status, has so far been able to finance its deficit by issuing dollar liabilities that are held by the rest of the world.	在此主要的例外是美国，由于美元储备货币的地位，到目前为止，美国都可以通过发行由世界上其他国家持有的美元债务的方式，为其国际收支赤字筹集资金。


Second, the system is unstable, because it makes the major reserve currency’s value dependent on US macroeconomic policy and the vagaries of the US balance of payments and associated domestic deficits.	其次，当前的国际储备体系是不稳定的，因为它使主要储备货币的价值依赖于美国的宏观经济政策以及美国国际收支和相关的国内赤字的变化。


Since the abandonment of gold-dollar parity in 1971, the world has experienced increasingly intense cycles in the value of the dollar and the US current account.	自从1971年黄金－美元平价被抛弃以来，世界经历了美元价值和美国经常账户日益剧烈的周期波动。


The dollar has lost what any reserve asset should have: a stable value.	美元已经失去了任何作为储备资产都应该具备的东西：稳定的价值。


The governor of China’s central bank recently emphasized this basic point.	中国中央银行行长最近也强调了这个基本观点。


Third, the current system is inequitable, because it forces a transfer of resources from developing countries to the industrial nations that provide reserve currencies.	第三，当前的国际储备体系是不公平的，因为它迫使资源从发展中国家向提供储备货币的工业国家转移。


This transfer has dramatically increased over the past two decades. Developing countries’ main defense against world financial instability has been to accumulate international reserves.	这种转移在过去二十年里急剧增加，而在这段时间里，发展中国家抵御世界金融动荡的主要方式就是积累国际储备。


At the end of 2007, developing countries, excluding China, held reserves equivalent to 20.6% of their GDP, compared to just 3.7% in 1990.	在2007年年底，不包括中国在内的发展中国家，持有相当于它们GDP的20. 6%的外汇储备，而这些国家在1990年的外汇储备只占它们GDP的3.


This generated a huge asymmetry in the world economy, as industrial countries, excluding Japan, hold only 2.6% of GDP in reserves.	7%。 这引起了世界经济中巨大的不对称，因为不包括日本在内的工业国家，外汇储备只占它们GDP的2.


One basic reason is that the only “collective insurance” available is limited and highly conditional IMF lending.	6%。 造成这一现象的一个基本原因是，国际货币基金组织贷款是各国可以获得的唯一的“集体保险”，而这种贷款的数量有限而且要求的条件很高。


It must be emphasized that a system based on competing reserve currencies would not solve the instability and inequities of the current system. In fact, it would add another one: the instability of the exchange rates among major reserve currencies.	必须强调的是，建立在相互竞争的储备货币基础上的国际储备体系，解决不了当前的国际储备体系的不稳定和不平等问题，事实上，它还会带来另一个问题：主要储备货币汇率的不稳定问题。


Indeed, this problem is already present in the current system.	实际上，在当前的国家储备体系中，这个问题已经存在了。


The deficiencies of current arrangements are why the world monetary system should be based on a truly global reserve currency: a fiduciary currency backed by the world’s central banks.	由于当前的国际储备货币安排存在以上的缺陷，所以，新的世界货币体系必须建立在真正的全球储备货币基础之上：这种真正的全球储备货币是一个得到世界各国中央银行支持的信用货币。


This is what was hoped for when SDRs were created in the 1960’s, and this process must be completed by transforming the SDRs into such a global currency.	人们在20世纪60年代创设特别提款权时，就是希望创设这种信用货币，而建立新的国际储备体系的过程必须通过将特别提款权转换成这种全球货币的方式来完成。


A major advantage of an SDR-based system is that it would provide a mechanism for the IMF to provide finance with its own resources in an agile way during crises, thus operating in the same way as central banks have been doing on a massive scale in recent months.	建立在特别提款权基础上的国际储备体系的主要优势是，它可以提供一种机制，这种机制可以让国际货币基金组织在经济危机时期，以灵活的方式用其自有资金向成员国提供贷款，从而使国际货币基金组织用和众多中央银行在最近几个月大规模提供贷款同样的方式，发挥作用。


It would also be a much better mechanism with which to finance the IMF during crises than the credit lines to the IMF from a few countries (“arrangements to borrow”) that the G-20 is again advocating, as it is truly multilateral financing that does not depend on any individual country.	它也是一个在危机时期，比G20再次支持的由少数几个国家（“借款安排”）提供信用额度更好的向国际货币基金组织提供资金的机制，因为它是真正的不依靠任何一个单一国家的多边融资方式。


For such a program to work, it is essential that developing countries recognize that IMF financing is good “collective insurance,” so that their demand for foreign-exchange reserves would decline.	要想让这样的体系起作用，发展中国家认识到国际货币基金组织贷款是一个不错的“集体保险”、因此它们对外汇储备的需求会下降这一点，是至关重要的。


This means that the IMF would have to lend rapidly during balance-of-payments crises, and do so without the overburdening conditionality of the past, particularly when crises stem from rapid reversal of capital flows or a sharp deterioration in terms of trade.	这也意味着在出现国际收支平衡危机时，国际货币基金组织必须快速提供贷款，并且在提供贷款的时候没有过去那种沉重的条件要求，特别是当国际收支平衡危机是源于资本流动的快速逆转或者贸易条件的急剧恶化时，尤其应该如此。


The IMF took steps in this direction in March, particularly by creating the Flexible Credit Line for crisis-prevention purposes, as well as expanding other credit lines and overhauling conditionality (relying more on ex-ante conditionality and eliminating structural performance criteria).	今年三月份，国际货币基金组织采取了措施，特别是通过为了预防危机而创设的灵活信贷额度、扩大其他的信贷额度以及修改贷款条件（现在国际货币基金组织更多的依靠事前设定条件，取消了结构性表现标准）的方式，在向这个方向进行努力。


The major problem with the new credit line is that it runs the risk of unduly dividing developing countries into two categories, with significant additional risks for the latter.	新的信贷额度的主要问题是，它有不适当地将发展中国家分成两类的风险，而这对发展中国家来说，会产生重大的额外风险。


A better alternative would be to go back to John Maynard Keynes’s proposal of an overdraft (or, in IMF terminology, drawing) facility for all member countries, with countries that continue to use it eventually having to apply to a formal lending program.	国际货币基金组织在这里有一个更好的选择，即重新回到约翰·梅纳得·凯恩斯的建议上来：给予所有成员国透支（或者用国际货币基金组织术语来说，提款）额度，随着成员国不断地使用透支额度，它们最终将不得不申请正式的贷款计划；


The overdraft facility could again be financed with counter-cyclical issues of SDRs.	而透支额度又可以通过特别提款权的抗周期发行来获得资金支持。


The reform should also allow for a mechanism for countries to exchange their current dollar (and euro, yen, and pound) assets for SDRs, thus avoiding the disruptions that could be generated by the transition to the new system.	国际储备体系改革也应该考虑建立一个可以使各国将其当前的美元（以及欧元、日元和英镑）资产兑换成特别提款权的机制，从而避免在过渡到新体系过程中可能出现的混乱。


As Fred Bergsten has reminded us, the mechanism is already available in the form of the “substitution account” that was negotiated in the IMF in 1980.	正如弗雷德·伯格斯坦提醒我们的那样，这一机制已经以1980年国际货币基金组织谈判过的“替换账户”的形式存在了。


It is time to broaden the agenda of global financial reform, which so far has focused on an essential but still limited set of issues, particularly financial regulation.	现在是扩大全球金融改革议程范围的时候了。 全球金融改革到目前为止，仍然只关注着一些关键但是有限的问题——尤其是金融监管问题。


Reform of the global reserve system must be part of that broader agenda.	改革全球储备体系必须成为更广泛的全球金融改革议程的一部分。


Hugging a Burning Tree	玩火自焚


PRAGUE – We are all brought up to recycle paper to save trees.	布拉格——我们从小就被教育要拯救树木。


We get countless e-mail admonitions: “Please consider the environment before printing.”	我们收到无数的警告邮件：“打印前请先考虑环境。


Indeed, environmentalism was born with a call to preserve the forests.	”其实，保护森林是环保主义与生俱来的诉求。


But now, in the name of saving the planet from climate change, environmentalists are proposing an immense global campaign to cut down and burn trees and scrubs in order to reduce fossil-fuel use.	可现在打着预防气候变化、挽救地球的旗号，环保主义者正呼吁开展声势浩大的全球性运动，为减少化石燃料用量而砍伐并烧毁森林和灌木。


The initiative could be dismissed as a weird irony, if it weren’t for its phenomenal costs, which include likely destruction of biodiversity, increased water use, and reduced global food production.	如果不是可能付出破坏生物多样性、增加用水量和影响全球粮食产量等等惊人的代价，我们或许可以将这种现象当作怪异的讽刺而一笑了之。


And it may end up increasing global CO2 emissions to boot.	增加全球二氧化碳排放量是另一个可能的结果。


When most people think of renewable energy sources, they imagine solar panels and wind turbines.	一提到可再生能源，多数人会想到太阳能电池板和风力发电机。


Globally, however, solar and wind are only a small part of total renewables – less than 7% in 2010.	但在全球范围内，太阳能和风能仅占可再生能源总量的一小部分——2010年还不到7%。


Hydropower is a much bigger player, at 17%.	水力资源占比更大，达到17%。


But the most important by far is biomass – humanity’s oldest fuel makes up 76% of today’s renewable energy and 10% of all energy.	但最最重要的无疑是生物燃料——这种人类最古老的燃料占当前可再生能源总量的76%及能源总量的10%。


About 60% of this is wood, twigs, and dung, used by almost three billion people who lack access to modern fuels – and resulting in terrible air pollution and millions of deaths.	其中60%是近三十亿尚未用上现代燃料的人所使用的木材、树枝和牛粪，这些燃料导致严重空气污染和数百万人死亡。


But the West uses the other 40% of biomass to produce heat, and it will increasingly use it to generate electricity.	但西方国家却用另外40%的生物燃料来生成热能，还有意扩大其在发电领域的应用。


This makes sense, because solar and wind power are inherently unreliable – we still need electricity on cloudy days or when the wind dies down.	这样做看似合情合理，因为太阳能和风能从本质上讲并不可靠——多云或者不刮风时我们仍然需要用电。


Biomass (along with hydropower) can be used to smooth the fluctuations inherent to wind and solar.	生物燃料（配合水力资源）可以弥补太阳能和风能所固有的波动。


Biomass is experiencing a revival, because it is considered CO2-neutral.	被视为二氧化碳中性的生物燃料正在逐步复苏。


The conventional wisdom is that burning wood only releases the carbon sucked up while the tree was growing, and hence the net climate effect is zero.	传统智慧认为树木燃烧时释放的二氧化碳量与其生长时吸入的量相当，因此使用生物燃料不会影响到气候。


But a growing number of voices challenge this view.	但对上述观点质疑声却越来越大。


The European Environment Agency’s Scientific Committee has called it a “mistaken assumption” based on “a serious accounting error,” because if a forest is cut down to burn wood, it will take a long time for new growth to absorb the CO2 emissions.	欧洲环境署科学委员会已将其定性为“严重计算错误”所导致的“假设错误”，因为如果以烧柴为目的而砍伐树木，要等很久新栽树木才能吸收二氧化碳排放。


The climate effect could be a net increase in emissions if forests are cleared to create energy-crop plantations.	如果在森林砍伐后种植能源作物，可能产生的气候效果是净排放量增加。


According to the Committee’s members, “the potential consequences of this bioenergy accounting error are immense.”	委员们认为，“该生物能源计算错误将产生巨大的影响。


Environmentalists’ plan to obtain 20-50% of all energy from biomass could mean a tripling of current biomass consumption, placing its production in direct competition with that of food for a growing global population, while depleting water supplies, cutting down forests, and reducing biodiversity.	”环保主义者计划让生物燃料占总能源量的20-50%可能导致生物燃料消费在当前基础上增加三倍，从而直接与不断增长的全球人口争夺粮食生产资源，并且消耗水资源、砍伐森林和导致生物多样性下降。


An academic paper published last year makes the point clear in its title: “Large-scale bioenergy from additional harvest of forest biomass is neither sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral.”	去年发表的一篇学术论文在标题中表明了核心观点：“大规模采集森林生物燃料既不环保也无法长期实行”。


Its authors point out that while the Industrial Revolution caused climate change, reliance on coal was actually good for forests, because our forebears stopped raiding forests for wood.	论文作者指出尽管工业革命导致气候变化，但因为我们的祖先停止砍伐树木，煤炭应用实际对森林起到了保护作用。


This is one of the major reasons that forests in Europe and the United States have recovered – and it is why many forests in developing countries are threatened.	这也是欧美国家森林恢复和发展中国家森林被毁的主要原因。


The developed world’s re-enchantment with biomass could take it down a similar road.	发达国家��新迷恋生物燃料可能步发展中国家的后尘。


But the biggest problem is that biomass production simply pushes other agricultural production elsewhere.	但生物燃料生产最大的问题是它只是把其他农业生产推到了别处。


Studies are just beginning to estimate the impact.	研究人员才刚刚开始对影响进行测算的研究活动。


In Denmark, a group of researchers estimated by how much various energy crops would reduce CO2 emissions.	丹麦一组研究人员对多少种不同作物能降低二氧化碳排放进行了估算。


For example, burning a hectare of harvested willow on a field previously used for barley (the typical marginal crop in Denmark) prevents 30 tons of CO2 annually when replacing coal.	比方说有一公顷土地原先用于种植大麦（丹麦典型的边际作物），改种柳树后燃烧这一公顷土地出产的燃料每年能比燃煤少排放30吨的二氧化碳。


This is the amount that proud green-energy producers will showcase when switching to biomass.	这是自豪的绿色能源生产者告诉人们的生物燃料数据。


But burning the willow releases 22 tons of CO2.	但以柳树为燃料将释放22吨的二氧化碳。


Of course, all of that CO2 was soaked up from the atmosphere the year before; but, had we just left the barley where it was, it, too, would have soaked up quite a bit, lowering the reduction relative to coal to 20 tons.	当然，所有释放的二氧化碳均为一年前从空气中吸收； 但如果依然种植大麦也能吸收很大一部分，从而导致与燃煤相比的减排量降低到20吨。


And, in a market system, almost all of the barley production simply moves to a previously unfarmed area.	而在市场体制下，几乎所有的大麦生产仅仅被转移到之前未开垦的地区。


Clearing the existing biomass there emits an extra 16 tons of CO2 per year on average (and this is likely an underestimate).	清理未开垦地区现有的生物燃料平均每年多释放二氧化碳16吨（这还很可能是低估的数字）。


So, instead of saving 30 tons, we save four tons at most.	因此我们减排的二氧化碳不是30吨而是最多4吨。


And this is the best-case scenario.	这还是最好情况下的假设。


Of the 12 production modes analyzed, two would reduce annual CO2 emissions by only two tons, while the other ten actually increase total emissions – up to 14 tons per year.	在研究分析的12种生产模式中，两种的年度二氧化碳减排量仅为2吨，而其余10种则实际造成总排放量增加——增排的最大值每年达到14吨之多。


At the same time, we are paying a king’s ransom for biomass.	与此同时，我们却为生物燃料付出了高昂的代价。


Germany alone spends more than $3 billion annually, or $167 per ton of avoided CO2 emissions, which is more than 37 times the cost of carbon reductions in the European Union Emissions Trading System.	仅德国一地每年就需多支出超过30亿美元，合每吨二氧化碳减排多支出167美元，超过了欧盟排放交易系统碳减排定价的37倍。


And the estimate of avoided emissions ignores indirect land-use changes, making the likely real cost at least eight times higher.	而对减排量的估算并未计算间接的用地变化，因此可能的实际成本至少在8倍以上。


Ten years ago, the EU and the US embraced biofuels as a way to combat global warming. Today, the US turns 40% of its maize output into ethanol to be burned in cars.	10年前，欧盟和美国应用生物燃料来应对全球变暖。


This has driven up food prices and caused tens of millions of people to starve, while costing more than $17 billion each year in subsidies and causing agricultural deforestation elsewhere in the world, with more total CO2 emissions than the entire savings from the ethanol.	今天，美国把玉米总产量的40%制成车用乙醇，推动粮食价格上涨并导致数千万人饿死，并在每年补贴超过170亿美元的同时导致世界其他国家出现农业毁林现象。 由此造成的二氧化碳总排量超过了乙醇汽油减少的总排量。


Biofuels have become an almost unstoppable and unmitigated disaster.	生物燃料已经成为一场不折不扣的灾难，而且几乎势不可挡。


We need to confront the next – and potentially much bigger – biomass boondoggle.	我们必须阻止下一场规模大得多的生物燃料无效投资。


Yes, we should turn waste into energy and be smart about agricultural leftovers.	的确，我们应该将废物转化为能源并对剩饭剩菜进行智能利用。


But we are about to diminish biodiversity, over-extract water, make food more expensive, and waste hundreds of billions of dollars – all while cutting down trees to burn them and potentially increasing CO2 emissions.	但我们将因此损害生物多样性、过度开采水资源、推动粮食价格上涨并且浪费数千亿美元——同时还要燃烧树木并有可能扩大二氧化碳排放。


We have been brought up to know and do better.	我们当然应当比这更聪明，做得更好。


The World’s North Korean Test	朝鲜考验世界


DENVER – The most recent North Korean nuclear test is the most dangerous of the three to date. How the international community responds, in both word and deed, will say much about the world we live in.	丹佛——最近的朝鲜核试是迄今为止三次中最危险的一次：国际社会在语言和行动上做出的反应将真实地反映我们所生活的世界。


And, whether the Chinese like it or not, how they respond will speak volumes about what kind of role China will play in global governance.	同时，无论中国人是否愿意，他们的对策将意味深长地反映出中国在全球治理中扮演的角色。


While details are not yet fully known, the test suggests substantial progress on the part of North Korea’s scientists in increasing the yield of their weaponry.	虽然细节尚不完全清楚，但核试验已经表明朝鲜科学家在提高武器产量方面取得了长足的进步。


The October 2006 test suggested the possibility of a faulty design, while there were questions about whether the 2009 effort was even nuclear in nature.	2006年10月的核试显示在设计方面可能出现失误，而2009年试验是否算得上核试都值得怀疑。


But North Korea’s test this month was by all measures the real thing.	但无论从何种角度，朝鲜本月举行的核试都再无值得怀疑之处。


Moreover, though it is hard to evaluate North Korean bluster on these occasions, there appears to be reason to be concerned that North Korean scientists have also made progress in miniaturizing their design, a step needed to mount a nuclear device on a missile.	此外，尽管很难估量朝鲜在上述核试中有多少恫吓成份，但似乎有理由担心朝鲜科学家在实现设计小型化（在导弹上安装核装置的必要步骤）方面也取得了进步。


Most worrisome of all, we cannot rule out that North Korea may have succeeded in enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.	最令人忧心的是，我们不能排除朝鲜已成功实现武器级铀浓缩的可能性。


We have scant information about this, beyond some limited information about international acquisitions and some detection of traces of highly enriched uranium (HEU) on materials brought out of North Korea.	在这方面我们掌握的信息很少，只有从国际并购中了解的有限信息和朝鲜带出材料上探测出的某些高浓缩铀（HEU）痕迹。


If North Korea is using HEU in its bomb design, we have little knowledge about where it comes from and how much of it they have, or could have in the future.	如果朝鲜将高浓缩铀用于炸弹设计，我们对铀原料的来源及现在或未来可能的数量几乎是一无所知。


There are some who would urge that we all remain calm (good advice in most circumstances) and somehow take comfort in the fact that North Korea still faces many serious technical hurdles before it can successfully add nuclear weapons to its considerable conventional arsenal.	有人敦促我们无论如何要保持冷静（多数情况下这都是正确的建议），并以朝鲜要想成功在本已庞大的常规武库中加入核武器尚需克服众多难以克服的技术障碍而聊以自慰。


After all, it took the United States 12 years to mount a weapon on a missile.	毕竟，美国花了12年时间才在导弹上加载了核武器。


But all indications are that the North Koreans have accelerated their testing schedule and have made nuclear weapons a top priority.	但所有迹象都表明朝鲜人加速了核试计划，并把核武研制放在了首要地位。


North Korean propaganda is not always a reliable indicator, but the recent upswing in attacks on the US, including a bizarre video to the tune of “We are the World” should not be completely laughed off.	朝鲜的政治宣传在很多时候并不可靠，但我们也不应对近期袭击美国论调的回升，包括一段以《我们是世界》曲调配乐的异乎寻常的视频完全一笑置之。


Gone are the hopes that the boy-dictator Kim Jong-un and his regents are more interested in economic development than they are in following the Kim dynasty’s traditional military-first policies.	但独裁男孩金正恩及其辅政班子对经济建设比传统金氏王朝的军事优先政策更有兴趣的希望已经彻底破灭了。


North Korea’s latest nuclear test is thus a test in many senses of the word.	因此在众多意义上，朝鲜近期举行的核试验都是对世界各国的考验。


For starters, it tests whether the 43-year-old Non-Proliferation Treaty is still viable.	首先，它可以检验拥有43年历史的《核不扩散条约》是否依然有效。


After all, the NPT’s objective is to “prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.”	《核不扩散条约》旨在“防止核武器和武器技术扩散，推进和平利用核能合作，并进一步实现核裁军和全面彻底裁军的目标。


Some might say that just two new wannabes, North Korea and Iran, is not so bad.	” 也许有人会说只有朝鲜伊朗两个新的核追逐者算不上坏事。


But, when it comes to nuclear weapons, even one is more than enough.	但只要涉及核武器，即使只增加一个也已经太多。


The latest detonation also tests whether the world can make addressing North Korea’s dangerous aspirations a priority by uniting around a common policy that is more than rhetorical in its condemnation.	最新的核爆测试还能检验世界各国能否团结在统一政策周围，而不仅限于嘴上谴责朝鲜危险的核武器试验。


One thing we know about the North Koreans is that, unless they can use such rhetoric in their own propaganda (they got far more traction out of former US President George W. Bush’s infamous “axis of evil” remark than he ever did), they simply don’t care what is said about them.	有一点我们对朝鲜了如指掌，那就是除了能在自己的政治宣传中引用国际社会的谴责之辞（他们从美国前总统乔治·W·布什臭名昭著的“邪恶轴心”说法中捞取的好处远胜于布什自己），他们根本不在意外界对于他们的评论。


Similarly, threatening North Korea with isolation, the hardy perennial of diplomatic pressuring, does not work, because isolation is exactly what the North Koreans want.	同样，用孤立来胁迫长期外交压力下惯于吃苦的朝鲜也不起任何作用，因为孤立恰恰符合北朝鲜的希望。


What the international community needs to do is to come together on a program of action aimed at producing a result.	国际社会需要达成统一的行动纲领并以结果为导向。


Economic sanctions alone are dubious against the world’s most sanctioned country.	仅靠经济制裁来对付全世界受制裁最多的国家其效果很值得怀疑。


And threatening more sanctions in the future raises the question of why those sanctions have not already been imposed.	威胁未来进一步制裁只能让人们疑惑之前的制裁措施为什么仍未落到实处。


In recent days, US President Barack Obama’s administration has done well to encourage countries big and small to speak out.	近几天，美国总统奥巴马政府已经成功地鼓励大小国家表达自己的看法。


Clearly, no single country can solve this problem.	显然，这个问题没有哪个国家有能力解决。


But encouraging countries to make statements and adhere to the sanctions regime will not get us to the goal that we need to achieve.	但鼓励各国发表声明和坚持制裁都无法达到我们需要达到的目标。


Every country needs to feel the threat from North Korea, and thus to feel the need to participate in addressing it, regardless of their relationships with or attitudes about the US.	无论与美国的关系好坏，对美国的态度如何，各国都要意识到来自朝鲜的威胁，并感受到参与解决问题的必要。


Enmity toward the US should not translate into forbearance toward North Korea.	对美国的���意不应转化为对朝鲜的忍耐。


There are also those – a dwindling minority, fortunately – who continue to suggest that more needs to be done on the negotiating track.	仍然有人（幸运的是这样的人数不断减少）继续提议要进一步谈判解决。


In fact, that track should remain open, but no one should be under the illusion that negotiations are somehow the missing piece of the puzzle.	其实，谈判渠道应当保持畅通，但我们不应再幻想谈判是当前困境的解决之道。


North Korea looked at every offer on the table during the six-party talks that began in 2003 – a peace treaty, economic and energy assistance, and membership in a regional association – and walked away.	2003年六方会谈后和平条约、经济能源援助和地区协会成员等一切谈判条件都已经摆在朝鲜面前——这对朝鲜早已经不是什么秘密，但朝鲜还是走开了。


Similarly, bilateral requests that North Korea had made for years, such as repeal of its designation by the US as an enemy in the context of the “Trading with the Enemy Act,” once delivered, were dismissed as unimportant.	同样，朝鲜多年来的双边请求，如撤销《敌国贸易法》背景下对朝鲜的敌国设定，一经提出即被当作无关紧要的条件而抛诸脑后。


Such offers remain on the table, gathering dust, but it has been entirely North Korea’s decision not to pursue them.	这样的条件在谈判桌上落满了灰尘，但置之不理却完全是朝鲜自己的决策。


Finally, the real test here may be not so much what the world will do, but rather what China, North Korea’s sole remaining ally, will do.	最后，真正的考验也许不是世界会怎么做，而是更多考验朝鲜唯一仅存的盟友中国的态度。


No one expects China to resolve this problem by itself.	没有人希望中国独立解决这一问题。


But the world is watching China and its incoming leadership for clues about what kind of member of the international community China really aspires to be.	但全世界都在关注中国及刚刚接任的领导人真正想在国际社会中扮演什么样的角色。


Responsibly Destroying the World’s Peasantry	自以为是地消灭全球农民


BRUSSELS – The World Bank, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretariat recently presented seven “Principles for Responsible Agricultural Investment.” The principles seek to ensure that large-scale land investments result in “win-win” situations, benefiting investors and directly affected communities alike.	发自布鲁塞尔——世界银行、联合国粮食及农业组织，国际农业发展基金会和联合国贸易与发展会议秘书处四个组织最近联合出台了七条“负责任的农业投资原则”，希望利用这几条原则来确保大规模的土地投资能获得“双赢”的成果，给投资者带来收益的同时也令当地社区受益。


But, though well-intended, the principles are woefully inadequate.	虽然此举的初衷是好的，但很遗憾，这些个条文只不过是些不切实际的想法罢了。


It has been several years since private investors and states began buying and leasing millions of hectares of farmland worldwide in order to secure their domestic supply of food, raw commodities, and biofuels, or to get subsidies for carbon storage through plantations.	许多年以来，私人投资者以及各个国家一直在全世界范围内购买和租赁数百万公顷的农地，以确保自身粮食，初级产品以及生物燃料的供应，又或者是用大规模种植来换取“碳储存”补贴。


Western investors, including Wall Street banks and hedge funds, now view direct investments in land as a safe haven in an otherwise turbulent financial climate.	而包括华尔街银行和对冲基金在内的西方投资者则把对土地的直接投资视为当前动荡金融环境中的避险天堂。


The scope of the phenomenon is enormous.	这类交易的规模也异常巨大。


Since 2006, between 15 and 20 million hectares of farmland, the equivalent of the total arable surface of France, have been the subject of negotiations by foreign investors.	自2006年以来，约有1500万到2000万公顷（相当于法国耕地总面积）的土地被放到了外国投资者的谈判桌上。


The risks are considerable.	但与此同时，这些举动所造成的风险也是相当大的。


All too often, notions such as “reserve agricultural land,” or “idle land,” are manipulated out of existence, sometimes being used to designate land on which many livelihoods depend, and that is subject to long-standing customary rights.	那些作为许多人生活来源或者传统上长期占有的“农业保留地”或“空置土地”通常都会被夷平。


The requirement that evictions take place only for a valid “public purpose,” with fair compensation, and following consultation of those affected, is honored more in the breach than in the observance.	而所谓居民搬迁必须要服务于正当的“公共目的”，提供合理补偿，并对搬迁后的后续影响作出评估的规定却往往只是嘴上说说而已。


In Africa, rural land is generally considered to be state-owned, and is treated by governments as if it were their own.	在非洲，农村土地通常被认为是国家所有的，而政府也将其当成私产来任意支配。


In Latin America, the gap between large landowners and small peasants is widening.	在拉美，大地主和小农民之间的鸿沟正不断扩大。


In South Asia, many populations are currently being driven off their ancestral land to make room for large palm-oil plantations, special economic zones, or re-forestation projects.	在南亚地区，许多人被从世代居住的土地上赶走来建立生产棕榈油的大型种植园，开发经济特区或者是退耕还林项目。


The set of principles that have been proposed to discipline the phenomenon remain purely voluntary.	还有就是这一系列用来规范当前状况的原则依然是非强制性的。


But what is required is to insist that governments comply fully with their human rights obligations, including the right to food, the right of all peoples to freely dispose of their natural wealth and resources, and the right not to be deprived of the means of subsistence.	而我们真正需要坚持的则是政府必须完全服从于其自身所承担的人权义务，包括获取粮食的权利，全体人民自由支配其自然财富和资源的权力，以及不被剥夺生存来源的权利。


Because the principles ignore human rights, they neglect the essential dimension of accountability.	然而由于上述原则忽视了人权，所以它们也因此忽略了某些政府所必须要承担的责任。


There is also a clear tension between ceding land to investors for the creation of large plantations, and the objective of redistributing land and ensuring more equitable access to it.	在将土地划给投资者来兴建种植园的举措与重新分配并确保人们能公平获得土地的目标之间实际上存在着十分紧张的关系。


Governments have repeatedly committed themselves to these goals, most recently at the 2006 International Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development.	政府一再强调他们将兑现这些目标，而最近一次表态则是在2006年国际农业改革和农村发展大会上。


The underlying problem runs deeper than how the principles have been formulated.	但潜在的问题比原则所规定的要更加深层次。


The promotion of large-scale land investment is based on the belief that combating hunger requires boosting food production, and that supply has been lagging because of a lack of investment in agriculture.	一直以来对于大规模土地投资的推广是基于这么一种理念，那就是对抗饥饿必须增加粮食产量，而供应的紧缺是因为缺乏对农业的投资。


Hence, if investment can be attracted to agriculture, it should be welcomed, and whichever rules are imposed should encourage it, not deter it.	因此只要能把投资吸引到农业上面就该受到欢迎，而相关规则无论如何都不能遏制投资，而是要鼓励之。


But both the diagnosis and the remedy are incorrect.	但这个治病的逻辑以及开出的药方都是错误的。


Hunger and malnutrition are not primarily the result of insufficient food production; they are the result of poverty and inequality, particularly in rural areas, where 75% of the world’s poor still reside.	饥饿和营养不良在很大程度上并不能归罪于粮食生产短缺，而是贫穷和不平等待遇的结果，尤其是在全世界75%的穷人居住的农村地区。


In the past, agricultural development has prioritized large-scale, capitalized forms of agriculture, neglecting smallholders who feed local communities.	在过去，农业的发展主要指向大规模的资本化运作，忽视了那些为当地社区提供食物的小生产者。


And governments have failed to protect agricultural workers from exploitation in an increasingly competitive environment.	政府也没有好好保护农业生产者免受外部激烈竞争环境的冲击。


It should come as no wonder that smallholders and agricultural laborers represent a combined 70% of those who are unable to feed themselves today.	毫无疑问，小生产者和农业劳工几乎代表了当今世界上70%无法养活自己的人。


Accelerating the shift towards large-scale, highly mechanized forms of agriculture will not solve the problem.	而加速将农业向大规模高度机械化转化并不能解决饥饿等问题，还反过来令其更严重了。


Indeed, it will make it worse. The largest and best-equipped farms are highly competitive, in the sense that they can produce for markets at a lower cost.	那些庞大且设备先进的农场有着极强的竞争力，这意味着他们可以以更低的成本向市场出售自己的产品。


But they also create a number of social costs that are not accounted for in the market price of their output.	但它们也衍生出一系列不能用其产品的市场价格来计算的社会成本。


Smallholders, by contrast, produce at a higher cost. They are often very productive by hectare, since they maximize the use of the soil, and achieve the best complementary use of plants and animals.	与之相反的是，小生产者的生产成本较高，但在类似一公顷这么大的范围内他们的生产力也是最高的，因为他们往往会充分利用土地的每一个角落来实现作物和家禽家畜的混种和饲养。


But the form of agriculture that they practice, which relies less on external inputs and mechanization, is highly labor-intensive.	而他们所使用的农业生产形式较少依赖外部的投入和机械化，而且属于高度劳动密集型。


If smallholders compete in the same markets as the large farms, they lose.	��果小生产者和大型农场在同一个市场竞争的话，他们肯定会一败涂地。


Yet they render invaluable services, in terms of preservation of agro- and biodiversity, local communities’ resilience to price shocks or weather-related events, and environmental conservation.	但他们也提供了无法用金钱来衡量的服务，不但保护了农业和生物多样性，还使当地社区免受价格波动和气候问题的影响，更保育了环境。


The arrival of large-scale investment in agriculture will alter the relationship between these worlds of farming. It will exacerbate highly unequal competition.	但大规模农业投资的到来将颠覆小型农业与环境，社区之间的上述联系，使得原本已经高度不对等的竞争进一步恶化，并将在全世界的农村区域导致大规模的社会动荡。


Certainly, agricultural investment should develop responsibly.	因此很显然，农业投资必须采取一种负责任的发展模式。


But, while many have seen the scares provoked by spiking food prices in recent years as an opportunity for investment, opportunities should not be mistaken for solutions.	但随着近年来食品价格飙升不断造成恐慌，许多人将都将其视为投资机会，但这种机会可不能被误认为是解决方案。


To re-launch agriculture in the developing world would require an estimated $30 billion per year, representing 0.05% of global GDP.	在发展中国家重新启动农业发展将需要每年300亿美元的资金，这等同于全球GDP的0.


But how much is invested in agriculture matters less than the type of agriculture that we support.	05%。 但跟我们所支持的农业类型相比，投资的规模并不是重点。


By supporting further consolidation of large-scale monocultures in the hands of the most powerful economic actors, we risk widening further the gap with small-scale, family farming, while pushing a model of industrial farming that is already responsible for one-third of man-made greenhouse-gas emissions today.	通过支持那些金融大鳄手中巨型单一作物农场的进一步整合，我们面临着进一步扩大其与小生产者和家庭式农业之间差距的风险，更何况这类产业化农业正是当今全球1/3人造温室气体排放的元凶。


It is regrettable that, instead of rising to the challenge of developing agriculture in a way that is more socially and environmentally sustainable, we act as if accelerating the destruction of the global peasantry could be accomplished responsibly.	如果我们不去应对在社会和环境方实现可持续农业的挑战，而是自以为负责任地加速消灭全球普通农民的话，这将是件非常令人懊恼的事情。


Europe’s Green Recovery	欧洲的绿色复苏


BRUSSELS – The need for clean energy has returned to the top of the global economic agenda.	布鲁塞尔—对清洁能源的需求回到了全球经济日程的最前端。


China’s new leadership now seems to recognize that the thick, hazardous smog that has come to define Beijing and other cities is more than a pollution problem; it is a result of an excessive emphasis on short-term economic planning.	中国新领导人似乎已经意识到，成为北京和其他诸城市新特色的有毒雾霾不光光是污染问题； 它是过度强调短期经济计划的结果。


Likewise, in his second inaugural address, US President Barack Obama discussed climate change more than any other issue, saying, “We cannot cede to other nations the technology that will power new jobs and new industries.”	类似地，在其第二次就职演说中，美国总统奥巴马讨论最多的问题便是气候变化。 他说：“我们不能把提振新工作和新行业的技术让给其他国家。


At the World Economic Forum in Davos, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and World Bank President Jim Yong Kim surprised business and government leaders with their warnings that genuine economic recovery would be impossible without serious action on climate change.	”在达沃斯世界经济论坛上，IMF总裁拉加德和世界银行行长金墉警告说，不再气候变化问题上拿出严肃的行动，就不可能有真正的经济复苏，此番话震惊了商界领袖和政府领导人。


And, at the most recent EU summit, leaders agreed to commit at least 20% of their entire common budget to climate-related spending.	而在最近的欧盟峰会上，各国领导人同意将共同气候相关支出预算至少增加20%。


These developments suggest that global leaders are finally beginning to understand that, beyond the global economic crisis, the world is experiencing a social and employment crisis, as well as a climate and resource crisis.	这些发展态势表明，全球领导人终于开始认识到，在全球经济危机之外，世界还在经历社会和就业危机以及气候和资源危机。


And none can be resolved without addressing the others.	而这些危机都不可能单一地解决。


Moreover, Europe’s main commercial competitors have begun to recognize that pursuing short-term development policies, while ignoring long-term threats to the global economy, is both irresponsible and a strategic mistake for those who aspire to global leadership in the twenty-first century.	此外，欧洲主要商业竞争者一开始认识到追求短期发展政策而忽视全球经济受到的长期威胁既不负责，也是战略错误，不利于寻求21世纪全球领导力。


Although Europeans have known this for decades, in the wake of the recent economic crisis, immediate goals took priority over – and often at the expense of – long-term objectives.	尽管欧洲几十年前就已经明白了这一点，但在最近的经济危机的影响下，即期目标仍成为当务之急，而这往往是以牺牲长期目标为代价的。


With the European Union’s economy growing more slowly than those of its major competitors, its leaders must take a more far-sighted approach to restoring – and preserving – its members’ growth potential.	欧盟经济增长速度比其主要竞争者更加缓慢，因此欧盟领导人必须拿出更有远见的方法重塑并保持其成员国的增长潜力。


They must begin by identifying not only what is undermining Europe’s competitiveness today, but also those factors that are putting its long-term prospects at risk.	作为起始点，他们不但要明白是什么破坏了欧洲今天的竞争力，也要认清是什么因素让其长期前景存在风险。


Analysts often point to Europe’s costly social-welfare systems, high labor costs, and increasing tax rates as a drag on competitiveness.	分析师通常会将矛头指向欧洲昂贵的社会福利制度、高劳动成本和拖累竞争力的税率抬升。


But other, less widely discussed factors must be considered – particularly the costs of delayed action on climate change.	但其他较少论及的因素也必须考虑到——特别是在气候变化问题上拖延行动的成本。


For example, Unilever CEO Paul Polman reported that extreme weather cost his company $250-300 million in 2012.	比如，联合利华CEO保罗·伯尔曼（Paul Polman）说，2012年，极端天气导致联合利华公司损失了2.


Once considered an issue for the future, action on climate change has become increasingly urgent, as the outlays required to mitigate its negative effects have grown.	5—3亿美元。 只要考虑关于未来的问题，就会感到气候变化治理越来越刻不容缓，因为减轻其消极影响所需的花费会越来越高。


Furthermore, with record-high unemployment rates, Europe needs jobs in dynamic, competitive industries that cannot easily be outsourced.	此外，在失业率处于创纪录高位的时候，欧洲需要充满活力和竞争力、无法轻易外包的产业的岗位。


The European Commission has identified the green economy as one of the areas with the highest job-creation potential.	欧盟委员会已将绿色经济视为就业创造潜力最大的领域之一。


At the same time, Europe’s growing dependence on imported fossil fuels is a further hindrance to competitiveness. In 2011, the EU’s combined trade deficit was €150 billion ($200 billion).	与此同时，欧洲对进口化石燃料的日益依赖进一步拖累了其竞争力。 2011年，欧盟贸易赤字总额为1500亿欧元。


But the combined oil-import bill was more than double that – €315 billion –and the official figure for 2012 is expected to exceed €335 billion.	但石油进口总金额是这个数字的两倍——3150亿欧元，且2012年的正式数字预计将超过3350亿欧元。


If Europe does not address these challenges, it risks being left behind.	如果欧洲不能解决这些挑战，就有落于人后的危险。


But Europe cannot build an industrial strategy on cheap energy.	但欧洲无法拿出廉价能源的产业战略。


Unlike the United States and China, which the International Energy Agency estimates possess the world’s largest shale-gas deposits, Europe cannot rely on its limited energy reserves to lower prices – especially given that its greater population density makes extraction more difficult, and thus prohibitively expensive.	与美国和中国——据国际能源署的评估，这两个国家拥有世界最大量的页岩气储量——不同，欧洲无法依靠其有限的能源储备降低价格，特别是，其更高的人口密度决定了在欧洲开发能源会更加困难，成本也会极其高昂。


As a result, Europe will remain a net energy importer.	因此，欧洲将继续成为净能源进口者。


And, given rising global demand for oil, particularly in developing countries, energy-import prices will remain high.	而随着全球（特别是发展中国家）石油需求的增加，能源进口价格也将保持高位。


Meanwhile, China – the world’s leading investor in renewable-energy projects – is undergoing a transformation from the world’s low-cost factory to a global leader in green innovation and a major exporter of clean technologies.	与此同时，中国——世界领先的可再生能源项目投资者——正在经历从世界低成本工厂向全球绿��创新领袖兼清洁技术主要出口者的转型。


In the contest for this global market, Europe cannot compete on price alone.	在这一全球市场的竞争中，欧洲不能光在价格上竞争。


But Europe does have options.	但欧洲确实拥有选择。


EU leaders can build an economy that is less dependent on imported energy through increased efficiency and greater reliance on domestically produced clean energy.	欧盟领导人可以通过提高效率、更多依靠国产清洁能源建立一个更少依赖进口能源的经济。


At the same time, they should tackle other major threats to Europe’s long-term competitiveness, including low productivity, an incomplete internal market, and insufficient innovation.	与此同时，他们应该解决欧洲长期竞争力的诸项重大威胁，包括生产率低下、内部市场不完善以及创新不充分等。


But Europe must not heed short-sighted calls to relax its environmental standards, which some claim harm its competitiveness vis-à-vis countries with looser rules.	但欧洲决不能动心于短视的放松环境标准的呼声，有人声称，欧洲环境标准损害了其相对规则更宽松国家的竞争力。


Given their global reputation as guarantors of quality, Europe’s high environmental standards are crucial to its future competitiveness, and should therefore be actively promoted, particularly in trade agreements.	作为全球质量捍卫者，欧洲的环境高标准对于其未来竞争力来说十分关键，因此应该积极推进，特别是在贸易协定中。


While trade deals have often come at the expense of stronger domestic climate action, the EU’s new trade agreement with Singapore aims to boost trade and investment in clean-energy technologies and promote green public tendering.	贸易协议通常会以牺牲国内气候问题的更大动作为代价，尽管如此，欧盟与新加坡的新贸易协定把目标放在了提振清洁能源技术的贸易和投资以及促进绿色公开竞标上。


This should serve as an environmental benchmark for future agreements – including with the US, despite some American constituencies’ expectations that EU standards could be relaxed in a bilateral trade deal.	这应该作为未来协定的环境基准——包括与美国的协定，尽管一些美国选民认为在双边贸易协定中，欧盟标准可以放松。


By maintaining high environmental standards, and promoting such standards among its trade partners, Europe can bolster the global market for clean-energy technologies.	通过坚持高环境标准并在贸易伙伴间推行这样的标准，欧洲可以提振清洁能源技术的全球市场。


As a major player in the green-technology market – set to triple in value by 2020 – Europe could regain competitiveness and secure its role in the future global economy.	作为到2020年价值将扩大三倍的绿色技术市场的主要参与者，欧洲可以重新赢得竞争力并在未来全球经济中保证其作用。


To be successful, Europe must play to its strengths.	要想获得成功，欧洲必须发挥优势。


The EU’s most competitive economies are the most innovative and energy-efficient, with the most highly educated workforces.	欧盟最有竞争力的经济正是最有创新力、能源效率最高、劳动力受教育程度最高的经济。


Indeed, for Europe, cheap is not the answer; quality and innovation are.	事实上，对欧洲来说，便宜并非答案，质量和创新才是答案。


Europe’s major competitors are turning climate change into an opportunity to encourage growth and create high-quality jobs in rapidly innovating economic sectors.	欧洲的主要竞争者正在把气候变化变为一次机会，以刺激增长并创造快速创新经济部门的高质量就业岗位。


If EU leaders hesitate to take action on climate change, they will be sabotaging their own economy’s prospects for sustainable recovery.	如果欧盟领导人在气候变化问题上采取行动时犹豫不决，无异于在为可持续复苏的经济前景自设障碍。


The American Comeback Kid	美国：主演归来


VIENNA – As is customary at the start of a new year, imposing statistics and trend forecasts are being trumpeted worldwide.	维也纳—和往常一样，新年伊始，各种统计数字和趋势预测在全世界蜂拥而出。


For example, in 2016, China is expected to replace the United States as the world’s largest economy.	比如，有人预期2016年中国将取代美国成为世界最大经济体。


And, by 2040, India’s population will have reached 1.6 billion, surpassing China’s, which will have stagnated a decade earlier.	而到2040年，印度人口将达到16亿，超过中国，后者十年前人口开始停止增长。


Perhaps the most startling projection is that the US will become an energy exporter by 2020, and will become energy self-sufficient 15 years later, owing to the plentiful supply of inexpensive shale gas and the discovery of massive oil reserves everywhere from North Dakota to the Gulf of Mexico.	也许最令人吃惊的预测是美国将在2020年变为能源出口国，并将在15年后能源自给，这是因为美国拥有充足的廉价页岩气供应以及从北达科他州到墨西哥湾各处发现大量石油储量。


Despite opposition from environmental groups, these reserves will be easier to exploit than those in Europe, because they are largely located in sparsely populated areas.	尽管环保团体表示反对，但这些储量比欧洲储量更容易开发，因为它们多坐落在人口稀疏地区。


As a result, energy will be significantly cheaper in the US than in Europe or China for the foreseeable future.	于是，在可预见的未来，美国的能源价格将远低于欧洲和中国。


Indeed, shale-gas extraction is so economically favorable that even American gas exported to Europe would cost 30% less than what the Russian energy giant Gazprom currently charges.	事实上，页岩气开采在经济上极为有利可图，以至于美国向欧洲出口的天然气成本将比俄罗斯能源巨头Gazprom的当前价格低三成。


Cheap energy provides a powerful incentive for energy-intensive industries – from steel and glass to chemicals and pharmaceuticals – to locate in the US.	廉价能源是美国能源密集性产业的有力强心剂——钢铁、玻璃、化工、制药等行业均在此列。


In fact, the decreased cost of manufacturing in America, combined with the country’s business-friendly regulations, strong rule of law, and political stability, will eliminate the competitive advantage that has driven China’s rapid economic growth over the last several decades.	事实上，美国制造业成本的下降加上美国商业友好型监管环境、强大的法治精神以及政治稳定，将消除过去几十年推动中国经济快速增长的竞争优势。


Meanwhile, American universities still attract the world’s best and brightest in many fields, most notably in science and technology.	与此同时，美国大学将继续吸引各领域的世界顶尖学者，特别是科技领域。


And the country’s other longstanding advantages – flexibility, capacity for renewal, economic mobility, international regulatory strength, and the world’s main reserve currency – remain in place.	美国的其他长期优势——灵活性、再生能力、经济流动性、国际监管优势以及世界主要储备货币——将继续保持。


Given these favorable conditions, the US has already begun “on-shoring” its industry – a process that will most likely continue for several decades.	在如此有利的条件下，美国已开始工业的“在岸化”，这一过程极有可能会持续几十年。


As other advanced economies become increasingly services-based, the US is reindustrializing.	当其他发达国家日渐依赖服务业的时候，美国正在重新工业化。


The resulting added value will bolster policymakers’ ability to find long-term solutions to persistent problems, including an inefficient health-care system, inadequate primary and secondary education, and blatant social injustice.	由此造成的增加值将有助于决策者寻找持续性问题的长期解决方案，包括低效的医疗卫生体系、中小学教育不足以及严重的社会不公。


Success in these areas would further enhance America’s appeal as an industrial center.	在这些领域取得成功将进一步增加美国作为产业中心的吸引力。


As part of the Harvard Business School’s US Competiveness Project, Michael Porter and Jan Rivkin recently published an eight-point plan, which could be implemented within the next two to three years.	作为哈佛商学院美国竞争力项目的一部分，迈克尔·波特和詹·利夫金（Jan Rivkin）最近发表了一项可在未来两到三年内实施的八点计划。


Each proposed measure has generated broad, bipartisan agreement among policymakers (at least behind closed doors).	每一条建议措施都在决策者中间形成了跨党派的广泛一致（至少是幕后一致）。


The plan highlights the need to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by shale gas and newly discovered oil reserves.	这份计划强调抓住页岩气和新发现原油储量所带来的机会。


Low-cost domestic energy could help to lower the trade deficit, spur investment, and decrease America’s economic exposure to volatile oil-exporting countries.	低成本国内能源能够有助于降低贸易赤字、刺激投资以及降低美国经济对高波动的石油出口国的暴露。


A strong federal regulatory framework could help to ensure this result, while minimizing the environmental and safety risks associated with extraction.	强有力的联邦监管框架能够有助于确保这一结果，同时将开采带来的环境和安全风险最小化。


Other proposals include easing the immigration of highly skilled individuals, particularly graduates from US universities; addressing distortions in international trade and investment; developing a more sustainable federal budget framework; streamlining taxes and regulations; and initiating an ambitious infrastructure program.	其他建议包括放松高技能个人移民门槛，特别是美国大学的毕业生、纠正国际贸易和投资方面的扭曲、开发更加可持续的联邦预算框架、改革税收和监管，以及实施雄心勃勃的基础设施项目。


By pursuing these strategies, President Barack Obama could restore America’s position as the engine of the global economy.	通过实施这些战略，总统奥巴马将能重塑美国作为全球经济引擎的地位。


But implementing the eight policy proposals would also widen further the wealth gap between the US and Europe, which has been growing for the last three decades.	但实施八项政策建议也将进一步拉大过去三十年中一直在增长的美国和欧洲的财富差距。


In 1980-2005, the US economy grew by a factor of 4.45 – a level that no major European economy even approached.	1980—2005年，美国经济增长了4. 45倍，这是任何欧洲大国都无法企及的高度。


In 2011, Norway and Luxemburg were the only European countries with higher per capita national income than the US in purchasing power parity terms.	2011年，挪威和卢森堡是仅有的人均国民收入超过美国的欧洲国家（以购买力平价衡量）。


And, by 2040, European countries’ populations will have stagnated or shrunk (with the exception of the United Kingdom, which will have a population of roughly 75 million, comparable to Germany), while America’s will have grown to 430 million, from 314 million today.	到2040年，欧洲国家人口将陷入增长停滞甚至下降（英国除外，到时它将拥有约7500万人，与德国相当），而美国人口将从今天的3. 14亿增加到4.


The political consequences of the US economy’s renewed strength will reverberate worldwide.	美国经济重获优势的政治后果将在全世界引起连锁反应。


But maintaining this economic revival will require greater reluctance to intervene in foreign conflicts or engage in new wars.	但维持其经济活力要求其更少地干预国外冲突或卷入新战争。


This recognition has already dampened US policymakers’ support for the Arab Spring uprisings: witness Obama’s hesitation to intervene in Libya and his unwillingness, at least so far, to involve America directly in Syria’s bloody civil war.	这一认识使美国决策者不愿意支持阿拉伯之春起义，奥巴马在干预利比亚方面的犹豫以及（至少从目前看）不愿直接卷入叙利亚血腥的内战即是明证。


Although the Arab Spring’s historic significance was initially likened to that of the fall of the Berlin Wall, mounting concern about the Muslim Brotherhood’s increasing political influence is overshadowing the positive potential of change in the region.	尽管阿拉伯之春的历史意义一开始便与柏林墙的倒塌相提并论，但越来越多人担心穆斯林兄弟会政治影响力的提升已经为该地区变局的正能量蒙上了阴影。


Likewise, while the US will not relinquish its bilateral relationship with Israel, relations between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Obama have reached a new low.	类似地，尽管美国不会弱化其与以色列的双边关系，但以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和奥巴马之间的关系已经创出了新的低点。


In this context, a major American peace initiative in the Middle East is unlikely in the foreseeable future.	在这样的环境下，在可以预见的未来，美国在中东进行的大规模和平动作。


Meanwhile, America’s former rival, Russia, is struggling to restore its hegemony over many of the ex-Soviet countries.	与此同时，美国前对手俄罗斯正在抓紧重建其对众多前苏联国家的霸权。


And conditions in Africa and Latin America are generally stabilizing.	非洲和拉美的环境总的来说趋于稳定。


Given this, America’s foreign-policy priorities have shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, where the most pressing economic, political, and security challenges – including the threat of North Korean missiles and rising tensions between China and its neighbors over competing sovereignty claims in the South and East China Seas – are emerging.	因此，美国外交政策重点转向了亚太地区，这里是最紧迫的经济、政治和安全挑战的滋生地，包括朝鲜导弹威胁以及中国与其邻国在东海和南海的主权纷争。


Other global challenges appear relatively minor in comparison.	相比之下，其他全球挑战是次要的。


Although the weight of global politics, economics, and, in turn, influence is largely shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific, it would be a mistake to underestimate America’s role in the new world order.	尽管全球政治、经济以及由此产生的影响力要点都在从大西洋向太平洋转移，但低估美国在新世界中的秩序将是一个错误。


America never really stepped out of the spotlight, and it will continue to play a leading role.	美国从来不曾退出过主舞台，今后也仍将是领衔主演。


Anti-Poverty 2.0	反贫困2. 0


ROME – Global leaders have touted the apparent success of achieving in 2010 – well ahead of the 2015 target – the Millennium Development Goal of halving the share of people who were living below the poverty line in 1990.	罗马——2010年实现了处于贫困线以下的民众比1990年减半的千年发展目标，较之2015年的原定时间表提前了不少，这项成就得到了全球领导人的高度评价。


But, amid enduring poverty, rising inequality, and lackluster growth in many developing countries, the success of past anti-poverty policies and programs appears dubious.	但在长期贫困、不平等加剧和众多发展中国家增长缓慢的大背景下，过去扶贫政策和项目的成功似乎并不稳固。


In fact, outside of East Asia, progress has been modest, with the situation worsening in some countries and regions – despite several economic-growth spurts, sustained expansion in some large developing countries, and public commitments by the international community to the 2000 Millennium Declaration, which led to the MDGs.	其实除东亚地区外扶贫的进展一直不大，尽管某些经济体增长迅速、发展中大国持续扩张且国际社会公开承诺支持实现千年发展目标的2000 千年宣言，但某些国家和地区的局势仍在持续恶化。


This mixed record calls into question the efficacy of conventional poverty-reduction policies, often identified with the Washington Consensus, which transformed the discourse on poverty in the 1980’s.	这样复杂的状况对以《华盛顿共识》为代表的传统扶贫政策效率提出了质疑，20世纪80年代《共识》改变了扶贫事业的走向。


Washington Consensus reforms – including macroeconomic stabilization (defined as low-single-digit inflation) and market liberalization – were supposed to reduce poverty by accelerating economic growth.	包括宏观经济稳定（被界定为个位数低通胀）和市场自由化在内的《华盛顿共识》被人们寄以加速经济增长、摆脱贫困的厚望。


But little attention was paid to poverty’s structural causes, such as inequality of assets and opportunities, or the unequal distributional consequences of growth.	但资产机会不平等或增长成果分配失衡等贫困的结构性原因却极少有人关注。


And, because unskilled workers tend to lose their jobs first in economic downturns, while employment generally lags behind output recovery, reduced public investment in health, education, and other social programs ultimately increased the vulnerability of the poor.	非熟练工人往往在经济衰退时首先失去工作且就业复苏一般会晚于生产复苏，因此缩减公共医疗、教育和其他社会项目投资最终会使贫困人口更加脆弱。


Not surprisingly, therefore, the fallout from the global economic crisis that erupted in 2008 – the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930’s – has prompted experts, policymakers, and the international financial institutions to rethink poverty.	因此，20世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的2008年全球经济危机的余波促使专家、决策者和国际金融机构重新对贫困进行思考。


Many are rejecting once-dominant perspectives on poverty and deprivation, warning that they lead to ineffective policy prescriptions.	很多人不再接受曾经盛极一时的贫困及匮乏观，并警告过时的观点会导致政策方案低效。


For example, the United Nations’ Report on the World Social Situation: Rethinking Poverty,and its companion book Poor Poverty: The Impoverishment of Analysis, Measurement, and Policies, havesought to advance the debate on poverty by examining the conventional policy framework and assessing popular poverty-reduction programs.	举例来讲，联合国世界社会状况报告：重新思考贫困及其姊妹篇可怜的贫困：分析、度量和政策的枯竭均通过研究传统政策框架并对现行扶贫计划进行评估而力求推进对贫困问题的讨论。


They affirm the need for a shift away from the fundamentalist free-market thinking that has dominated poverty-reduction strategies in recent decades toward context-sensitive measures to promote sustainable development and equality.	他们认为有必要改变几十年来一直主导扶贫政策的原教旨主义自由市场思想，转而按照实际情况制定对策，以促进平等及可持续发展。


Indeed, these reports challenge the prevailing approach, which has left more than one billion people living below the poverty line (defined as the purchasing-power-parity equivalent of $1.25 per day in 2005), and has failed to prevent economic growth from stalling in most countries.	事实上，报告质疑了将10多亿人挤压在贫困线下、且未能防止多数国家陷入经济停滞的现行手段（贫困线标准按2005年购买力平价为每天1. 25美元）。


Meanwhile, inequality has increased worldwide – even in countries that have experienced rapid economic expansion, notably China and India.	与此同时，全球不平等现象愈演愈烈，即使中国和印度等经济快速成长的国家也概莫能外。


While growth is usually needed for poverty reduction, it does not necessarily translate into job creation, as many countries’ recent record of jobless or job-poor growth demonstrates.	尽管扶贫需要经济增长，但很多国家近来的失业或在职贫困增长表明，经济增长不一定能转化成就业机会。


The UN encourages governments to assume a more proactive development role, which would entail an integrated policymaking approach aimed at promoting structural change while reducing inequality, vulnerability, and economic insecurity.	联合国鼓励政府主动担负起发展责任，制定旨在促进结构改革、减少不平等现象、查缺补漏和应对经济不安全问题的综合决策方式。


Growth must become more stable, with a consistently counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy stance, prudent capital-account management, and greater resilience to external shocks.	经济增长必须增强稳定性，坚持反周期的宏观经济政策、审慎管理资本账户并增强对外部冲击的抵御能力。


Generally, economies that have succeeded in terms of both economic growth and poverty reduction over the last three decades have done so by adopting pragmatic, heterodox policies.	总体而言，30年来在经济发展和扶贫方面同时取得成功的国家大都采用务实却有悖于正统的经济政策。


Often invoking investor- and market-friendly language, they have generally encouraged private investment, especially in desired economic activities, such as those that create more job opportunities or offer increasing returns to scale.	这些国家往往对投资者和市场态度友善，尤其鼓励指定领域的私人投资，如创造就业机会或实现规模效益。


But aid conditionality and treaty commitments have significantly constrained policymaking in most developing countries, especially the poorest.	但援助条件和条约束缚严重限制了多数发展中国家，尤其是最贫困国家的政策制定。


In particular, slow growth and revenue losses, owing to economic liberalization programs, have reduced the scope for fiscal policy, with serious consequences for poverty and destitution.	经济自由化计划造成的增长缓慢和收入损失制约了财政政策的余地，从而导致贫困匮乏的严重后果。


This trend must be reversed.	我们必须扭转这种势头。


Moreover, while the programs that most donors like – such as micro-credit, formalization of land titles, and governance reforms – have sometimes helped to ameliorate the conditions facing the poor, they have not reduced poverty significantly.	此外，尽管广受捐赠者喜爱的小额信贷、正式土地所有权和执政改革等方案有时的确改善了穷人的生存条件，但并没有显著改善贫困。


Leaders must consider, design, and implement pragmatic and innovative alternatives, rather than continue to rely on ineffective policies and programs.	领导者不能继续依赖低效的政策和计划，而必须改弦更张，思考、设计和执行更加创新务实的方案。


In recent decades, social policies have increasingly involved some form of means testing of eligible beneficiaries, ostensibly to enhance cost effectiveness.	近几十年来，社会政策越来越多地采纳了某些检验合资格受助者的手段，成本效益提升只是表面因素。


But, in general, universal social policies have been much more effective and politically sustainable, while policies targeting the poor, or the “poorest of the poor,” have often been costly and neglectful of many of those in need.	但总体而言，普遍性的社会政策政治持续性更强也更有效，而针对穷人（或“穷人中的穷人”）的政策则往往代价昂贵，而且忽略了很多人的需要。


The right to social security enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights requires universal social protection to ensure the well-being of all, including people living in poverty and those at risk of poverty.	世界人权宣言规定的社会保障权要求建立全面的社会保障，以此来确保包括贫困及有贫困风险者在内的所有人的福祉。


Social policy, provisioning, and protection must therefore be integral to development and poverty-reduction strategies.	社会政策、分配及保障因此必须纳入完整的发展和扶贫战略。


In most countries, a basic social-protection floor – which can help countries to mitigate the negative effects of shocks and prevent people from falling deeper into poverty – is affordable.	多数国家都能承受一套基本的社会保障最低标准——它有助于缓解负面影响并防止民众更深地陷入贫困。


However, low-income and least-developed countries need assistance in raising the floor to more acceptable levels.	但低收入国家和最不发达国家将最低标准提升至可以接受的水平可能离不开外界的援助。


In order to address global poverty effectively, world leaders must pursue poverty-reduction policies that support inclusive, sustainable economic growth and development – in turn increasing the fiscal resources that are available for social spending.	为了有效缓解全球贫困，世界领导人必须探索支持全方位、可持续经济增长和发展的扶贫政策——从而增加可用于社会开支的财政资源。


Only when all citizens benefit from economic development can leaders devoted to poverty reduction claim genuine success.	只有当全体公民从经济发展中受益，以扶贫为己任的领导人才有资格宣布取得了真正的成功。


Re-Thinking Homegrown Terrorism	对滋生在国内的恐怖主义的再思考


BERLIN – Homegrown terrorism stands high on the security agenda almost everywhere in Europe.	柏林-应付滋生于国内的恐怖主义，在几乎所有的欧洲国家的安全议程上都很重要。


Its links to international extremist Islamic groups require that governments review and re-think how they respond to it.	其与国际极端的伊斯兰团体的联系需要政府审视并重新思考政府须如何应付其挑战。


International security cooperation, border controls, and transport sector monitoring are all important, but they don’t go far enough.	国际安全合作、边境管制以及对交通往来的监视都是重要的，但它们的作用还不够大。


Governments must also identify radical tendencies within Europe’s Muslim communities and devise strategies to counteract them.	政府还必须了解欧洲穆斯林社区中的激进倾向，并制定战略以应付这些倾向。


The narrow aim should be to nip terrorism in the bud, and the broader aim should be to open a dialogue with the Muslim community.	近的目标应该是消灭恐怖主义于萌芽状态，而更远大的目标应该是与穆斯林社区进行对话。


This agenda emphasizes intercultural communication as the best way to break down prejudices and negative clichés on both sides.	这一议程强调跨文化交流是打破双方的偏见和消极的老调的最佳方式。


From the point of view of security policy, intercultural communication is intended to immunize those sections of the Muslim community that are deemed to be potentially receptive to extremist propaganda, with the clear aim being to prevent their radicalization and recruitment to jihad .	从安全策略的角度来看，跨文化交流的目的是为穆斯林社区内被认为有可能接受极端主义宣传的那些人打预防针，其目的很明确，是防止这部分人成为激进分子并被招募加入圣战。


For immunization of this sort to be successful, it is important to first clarify what can turn someone into a jihadi .	要让这种预防取得成功，重要的是首先要弄清楚是什么能把人变成圣战分子。


There appears to be no single answer.	这似乎没有单一的答案。


But one common pattern that does emerge is that the jihadi message, because it promises meaning and identity, seems to appeal particularly to people who are unsure about who they are and where they are heading.	但浮出的一个共同的模式是，因为圣战的信息所承诺的意义和身份，它们似乎对那些搞不清楚他们是谁和他们要去哪里的人特别具有吸引力。


Last year, a study of German Muslims analyzed social integration (including obstacles), religion, attitudes to democracy, the rule of law, and politically-inspired violence.	去年的一项针对德国穆斯林的调查对以下方面进行了分析：社会融入情况（包括融入的障碍） 、宗教、对民主的态度、法治和政治引发的暴力活动。


The vast majority of respondents were from a migrant background, and a quarter were Muslims whose families had been in Germany for a generation or more.	绝大多数的受访者有移民背景，并有四分之一是已经在德国生活了一代或更长时间的穆斯林的家庭。


In terms of ethnic origin and religious practice, they were a representative sample of Germany’s Muslim community.	从种族和宗教习俗来讲，他们在德国的穆斯林社区是具有代表性的。


The study provided valuable insights into homegrown terrorism, for it revealed a consistently close link between radicalization and “vicarious” experiences of marginalization and discrimination.	这项研究对于了解滋生在国内的恐怖主义提供了宝贵的见解，因为它揭示了激进主义和“间接替代”的受排斥和歧视经历之间的一贯的紧密联系。


A critical factor was the powerful emotions generated by United States-led military interventions in Muslim countries, and by the situation of the Palestinians.	一个关键因素是，由于美国领导的对穆斯林国家的军事干预以及巴勒斯坦人的境遇所产生的强烈的情绪。


The blanket suspicion that was widely seen as falling on all Muslims after every terrorist attack was also strongly resented.	每次恐怖袭击事件发生后，对作案人的怀疑，普遍都落在了所有的穆斯林人身上，穆斯林人对这一点表示强烈愤慨。


But the study revealed no automatic correlation between Islamist sympathies and condoning the use of violence.	但是，研究显示对伊斯兰的同情和对使用暴力的宽恕之间没有必然的相互联系。


And, while individuals who had Islamist sympathies and condoned violence were more likely than others to become involved in homegrown terrorism, a mere 1.1% of Germany’s Muslims fell into this category.	而虽然有过对伊斯兰同情情节和宽恕对暴力使用的人们比其他人更有可能卷入在本国滋生的恐怖主义中，但是只有1. 1 ％ 的德国穆斯林属于这一类人。


The authors also noted that the mechanisms that turn Muslims into potential terrorists are the same as those that make German teenagers susceptible to xenophobic propaganda and right-wing extremism.	作者还指出，把穆斯林变成潜在的恐怖分子的机制，和使德国青少年容易接受仇外宣传和右翼极端主义的机制，两者是一样的。


The study’s conclusions applied only to Germany, but its main findings were largely corroborated by a Gallup global survey.	这项研究的结论只适用于德国，但盖洛普全球调查基本上证实了其主要的调查结果。


According to Gallup, only 7% of Muslims are politically radical and condone the use of violence, and their motives are not so much religious as inspired by the demeaning political and social treatment that Muslims are perceived to suffer.	据盖洛普公司的调查，只有7 ％的穆斯林在政治上属于激进并宽恕对暴力的使用，而且他们的动机，与其说源于自宗教信仰，还不如说源于被所见的穆斯林所遭受的低下的政治和社会待遇。


This is in marked contrast to the conventional view in the West that the prime motive for Islamist terrorism is religious.	这与西方的传统观点，即伊斯兰恐怖主义的首要动机是源于宗教因素，造成明显的反差。


Many Muslims see that erroneous assumption as evidence of the West’s contempt for Islam, reinforcing their view that Muslims as a whole are victims of discrimination and creating a vicious cycle that may generate further radicalization on both sides.	许多穆斯林认为此种错误的假设是西方国家的蔑视伊斯兰教的一个证据，这加强了他们认为穆斯林作为一个整体是歧视的牺牲品的观点，而这造成了一个恶性循环，可能会让双方产生进一步的激进。


Indeed, certain aspects of the host-country environment may contribute to radicalization.	事实上，东道国的环境的某些方面可能有助于激进情绪的产生。


While external factors also play a major role, Muslim attitudes toward their host country are strongly influenced by the perception that Muslims are subjected to humiliation and oppression.	虽然外部因素也起了主要作用，感觉穆斯林遭受屈辱和压迫，强烈影响了穆斯林人对其东道国的态度。


This is liable to be reinforced by any negative experiences that Muslims may suffer themselves.	任何穆斯林自己可能遭受的负面的经历都会加强这种态度。


Finally, there is the quantitative question.	最后，还有一个定量的问题。


The number of potential terrorist recruits can only be estimated, but it corresponds more or less to the percentage of the population in any Western society that is likely to be involved in violent crime.	潜在的恐怖分子的数字只能被估计，但这个数字或多或少与在任何西方社会中有可能参与暴力犯罪活动的人口比例有关系。


In no sense do these people amount to a mass movement. But, as protagonists in the complex web of interaction between the Muslim and the Western worlds, they view militant terrorism as their preferred option.	这些人绝对不会到达产生群众运动的规模，但是，作为在错综复杂的穆斯林和西方世界的互动关系中的主角，他们视武装恐怖主义为他们的首选。


There are, of course, other forms of interaction, and this brings us back to the question of how to respond to homegrown terrorism.	当然，还存在其它形式的互动，这又让我们回到如何应对国内滋生的恐怖主义的问题。


A distinction is often made between “hard” tools for combating terrorism – i.e. executive, including military measures – and “soft” tools such as programs promoting the integration of Muslim immigrants, efforts to stabilize and develop problem countries, and strategies for intercultural dialogue.	往往有打击恐怖主义之“硬”手段和“软”手段之区别 -“硬”手段即行政上包括军事的措施； “软”手段则包括促进穆斯林移民融入主流社会的项目、努力稳定和发展问题国家以及跨文化的战略对话。


The slogan “war for Muslim hearts and minds” is a grotesque yet revealing attempt to link both sets of tools.	“赢得穆斯林心灵之战”的口号是个试图联系这两套工具的荒唐但具有启示性的尝试。


Even when such interaction is to communicate a political message, an image of war is used.	即使这种互动是为了表达一种政治信息，它使用了战争的形象。


If we adopt the parlance employed by al-Qaeda while at the same time proclaiming our intention to communicate with the whole Muslim world, we run the risk of reinforcing al-Qaeda’s message.	如果我们采用基地组织的说法，而同时又宣称我们打算与整个穆斯林世界沟通，我们是在冒强化基地组织的信息的风险。


The “competition of ideas” appears to be confined to al-Qaeda’s jihadi agenda.	“观念的竞争”似乎仅限于基地组织的圣战议程。


Such a response is hardly likely to alter the mindset of potential recruits.	这种反应是不大可能改变潜在的加入圣战分子的心态的。


Today’s tendency to view Muslim grievances in one-dimensional terms reduces political discourse to a very simplistic level.	如今以一维思维看待穆斯林群体的抱怨的倾向，使政治话语下降到一个简单化的水平。


Our interactions with Muslims may be unconsciously influenced by this defensive reflex, and that may encourage equally defensive attitudes on their part.	我们与穆斯林的互动可能会不自觉地受这一防御性反应的影响，这可能会鼓励对方采取同样的防御态度。


Rethinking Hunger	饥饿的再思考


ROME – The world has a nutrition problem.	罗马——世界亟待解决营养问题。


Though great strides have been made toward the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of undernourished people in developing countries, the problem remains persistent, pervasive, and complex.	虽然实现发展中国家营养不良比例减半的千年发展目标已经取得了长足的进步，但营养不良问题依然持续普遍存在同时又非常棘手。


After all, the issue goes beyond merely providing more food; effective efforts to reduce undernourishment must ensure that people have access to enough of the right types of food – those that give them the nutrients they need to live healthy, productive lives.	归根结底，解决这一问题不仅要提供更多食物； 减少营养不良的有效努力还必须确保人们可以吃到某些特定的食物类型——这些食物类型为他们提供健康、有效生活所需的营养素。


Since 1945, food production has tripled, and food availability has risen by 40%, on average, per person.	1945年来粮食产量增长了三倍，而粮食供应人均增长了40％。


Over the last decade alone, vegetable production in the Asia-Pacific region, where more than three-quarters of the world’s vegetables are grown, increased by one-quarter.	仅过去十年，占世界蔬菜产量四分之三的亚太产地产量就已增长了四分之一。


But, despite these gains in expanding the food supply, at least 805 million people still go hungry every day, of whom some 791 million live in developing countries.	但尽管粮食供给不断扩大，每天至少仍有8. 05亿人在忍饥挨饿，其中7.


Many more go hungry seasonally or intermittently.	91亿人在发展中国家生活。


And more than two billion people suffer from “hidden hunger” – one or more micronutrient deficiencies.	季节性或间歇性缺粮的人数更多。 超过20亿人不得不忍受“隐性饥饿”——即缺乏一种或多种微营养素。


Hunger and undernourishment damage the health and productivity of adults, undermining their ability to learn and work.	饥饿和营养不良影响成年人的健康和效率，破坏他们的学习和工作。


Moreover, they impede children’s physical and cognitive development, and leave them more susceptible to illness and premature death.	此外，营养不良还妨碍儿童的身体和智力发育，导致更容易出现疾病和过早死亡。


Stunted growth due to malnutrition affects one in four children under the age of five.	有四分之一的五岁以下儿童因营养不良导致发育迟缓。


Adequate nutrition is most vital during the first 1,000 days of life (from conception to a child’s second birthday).	充足的营养对生命的前1000天（从受孕时算起到孩子第二个生日为止）是极为重要的。


But, even after that, hunger and undernourishment continue to diminish children’s chances of surviving to adulthood, much less reaching their full potential.	但即便在那以后，饥饿和营养不良将继续影响儿童存活至成年的机会，更谈不上实现其全部潜力了。


Ironically, in many parts of the world, pervasive hunger coexists with rising levels of obesity.	颇具讽刺意味的是，世界很多地方都在饥饿盛行的同时伴随着肥胖程度的上升。


More than 1.5 billion people are overweight, with one-third of them considered obese.	超过15亿人体重超重，其中三分之一被划入肥胖范畴。


These people are particularly vulnerable to non-communicable diseases like heart disease, stroke, and diabetes.	心脏病、中风和��尿病等非传染性疾病在上述人群中尤为高发。


Contrary to popular belief, obesity is often related less to an overabundance of food than to inadequate access to affordable, diverse, and balanced diets.	与大众看法相反，肥胖与粮食过剩的相关性往往低于多样均衡及廉价的饮食不足。


The challenge facing the international community is thus to ensure adequate consumption of the right kinds of food.	因此国际社会所面临的挑战是确保充分消费恰当种类的食物。


This means developing food systems that are more responsive to people’s needs, particularly those of the socially excluded and economically marginalized.	这意味着建立对民众需求更敏感的粮食体制，特别是针对那些受社会排斥且经济边缘化的民众。


Mothers, young children, the elderly, and the disabled are among the most vulnerable to the pitfalls of undernourishment, and should be given special attention in efforts to end food insecurity and undernourishment.	母亲、儿童、老人和残疾人最容易受到营养不良的侵害，因此在终结粮食不安全和营养不良的工作中应当受到重点照顾。


In order to ensure that today’s efforts benefit future generations, strategies to improve global food systems must emphasize environmental sustainability.	为确保今天的努力惠及子孙后代，改善全球粮食体系的战略必须以环境可持续发展为重。


Specifically, world leaders must reassess prevailing food-production processes, which often put considerable stress on natural resources by exhausting freshwater supplies, encroaching on forests, degrading soils, depleting wild fish stocks, and reducing biodiversity.	具体地讲，世界领袖必须重新评估现有的粮食生产流程，关注对自然资源造成的过度压力，表现为大量消耗淡水资源、侵占森林、退化土壤、耗尽野生鱼类资源及破坏生物多样性。


Making matters worse, the lack of adequate infrastructure for storing and transporting food to consumers contributes to massive losses.	更有甚者，粮食存储及运输基础设施的缺乏进一步加剧了损失。


Of course, it is essential to strike the right balance between producing enough nutrient-dense food and preserving the environment.	当然，有必要在生产营养充足的食品和保护环境间取得合适的平衡。


Consider livestock production, which accounts for many foods – including milk, eggs, and meat – that have enriched diets in developing countries and provide livelihoods for millions.	以畜牧生产为例，肉、蛋、奶等很多食物来源于畜牧生产——它丰富了发展中国家食物的品种，同时有数百万人以此谋生。


Unsustainable production systems, combined with wasteful and excessive consumption in some regions of the world, have had serious consequences in terms of climate change, disease transmission, and nutritional balance.	不可持续的生产体系，加之世界某些地区的过度消耗和浪费，在气候变化、疾病传播和营养平衡等领域后果非常严重。


But, with a strong political commitment, global food-production systems can be transformed.	但有了坚定的政治目标，全球粮食生产体系可以实现转型。


An obvious step would be to ensure that all food-related programs, policies, and interventions account for nutrition and sustainability.	显而易见必须确保所有与粮食相关的计划、政策和干预措施认真考虑营养和可持续性。


Likewise, food-related research and development should focus on facilitating the production of nutrient-rich foods and the diversification of farming systems.	同样，与粮食相关的研究和开发应着眼于推动营养丰富食品的生产及确保农业系统多样性。


Finding ways to use water, land, fertilizer, and labor more efficiently, and with minimal adverse impact, is essential to ecological sustainability.	提高水、土地、化肥及劳动力资源的利用效率并尽可能控制不利影响是保持生态可持续发展的关键要素。


Equally important will be interventions that empower local communities to improve their diets.	授权地方团体改善饮食结构的干预措施同样重要。


This requires comprehensive public-health and education campaigns, social protection to enhance resilience, and initiatives to boost employment and income generation.	这需要开展全面的公共卫生和教育活动、推行提高应变能力的社会保障措施及推动就业和创收的计划。


Finally, producers and distributors need support and encouragement to transform their existing systems.	最后，生产者和经销商需要支持和鼓励推进现有体系的转型。


After all, a shift toward sustainability cannot come at the expense of farmers’ livelihoods.	毕竟，不能以损害农民生计为代价来实现向可持续发展过渡。


Better nutrition makes economic sense.	加强营养能够带来经济效益。


Malnutrition in all of its forms reduces global economic welfare by about 5% annually, through foregone output and additional costs incurred.	各种形式的营养不良每年通过减少产量及增加开支致使全球经济福利下降约5%。


The economic gains of reducing micronutrient deficiencies are estimated to have a cost/benefit ratio of almost 1:13.	据估算，控制微营养素缺乏的成本/效益比可接近1：13。


The upcoming Second International Conference on Nutrition in Rome will provide a historic opportunity to galvanize political commitment to enhance nutrition for all through better policies and international solidarity.	即将召开的罗马第二届国际营养会议将通过改善政策及增进国际团结为所有人提供制定政治目标加强营养的历史性机遇。


Failure to make the needed investments in food access, nutrition, and sustainability is morally – and economically – unjustifiable.	不对粮食、营养和可持续发展进行必要的投资无论从道德还是经济效益方面都说不过去。


Rethinking Inflation Targeting	反思通胀目标


ZURICH – Over the last two decades, inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary-policy framework.	苏黎世—过去二十年中，通胀目标已成为货币政策框架的主要内容。


It has been essentially (though not explicitly) adopted by major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank.	它事实上（尽管未必直接）被各大主要央行所采用，包括美联储、欧洲央行和瑞士国民银行。


But the 2008 global economic crisis, from which the world has yet to recover fully, has cast serious doubt on this approach.	但让世界至今仍未完全从中恢复的2008年全球经融危机给这一方针带来了重重疑云。


The Bank for International Settlements has long argued that pure inflation targeting is not compatible with financial stability.	国际清算银行早就指出，纯粹的通胀目标与金融稳定不相容。


It does not take into account the financial cycle, and thus produces excessively expansionary and asymmetric monetary policy.	它没有考虑金融周期，因此导致过度扩张和不对称的货币政策。


Moreover, a major argument in favor of inflation targeting – that it has contributed to a decline in inflation since the early 1990s – is questionable, at best.	此外，支持通胀目标的主要观点——这样做降低了20世纪90年代初以来的通货膨胀——也是值得质疑的。


Disinflation actually began in the early 1980s – well before inflation targeting was invented – thanks to the concerted efforts of then-US Federal Reserve Board Chair Paul Volcker.	反通胀（disinflation）始于20世纪80年代初——远早于通胀目标——原因是时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）的一系列措施。


And, from the 1990s on, globalization – in particular, China’s integration into the world economy – has probably been the main reason for the decline in global inflationary pressure.	而从20世纪90年代以来，全球化——特别是中国融入全球经济——也许才是全球通胀压力下降的主要原因。


A more recent indication that inflation targeting has not caused the disinflation seen since the 1990s is the unsuccessful effort by a growing number of central banks to reflate their economies.	通胀目标并没有引起20世纪90年代以来出现反通胀现象的更加晚近的指标是越来越多的央行让经济再通胀（reflate）的努力以失败告终。


If central banks are unable to increase inflation, it stands to reason that they may not have been instrumental in reducing it.	如果央行无法增加通货膨胀，呢么它们有可能从未有过降低通胀的能力。