The disturbance to so elemental a part of this region’s natural architecture is a measure of only one of the many kinds of severe weather aberrations – from floods and droughts to unseasonal blizzards and massive dust storms – that have been unsettling China of late. No one can say with any certainty what the causes are.	而这种对该区域自然景观的控制只是应对最近侵扰中国的严酷气候灾害——从洪水，干旱，再到非季节性暴风雪以及大规模沙尘暴——的其中一项措施，也没有人能说明白这些灾难背后的成因究竟是什么。


To try to compensate for these perturbed weather patterns, Chinese officialdom has launched an unprecedented array of costly projects.	为了降低这种麻烦不断的气候模式所造成的影响，中国的官员们不惜投入巨资，启动了一批空前绝后的工程，其中包括耗资550亿美元的南水北调工程，用大规模的技术手段，兴建三条运河，将水从以往水量充沛的南部输送到北部； 此外还广泛挖井取水，打井的深度也是前所未有的；


These include the titanic $55 billion South-North Water Transfer Project, a massive engineering effort to construct three canals to bring water from China’s normally wet south to its arid north; a widespread campaign to dig ever-deeper wells; a nationwide tree-planting campaign; and even an extensive effort at  “weather modification.”	在全国范围内开展植树运动； 甚至还包括了大规模的“人工气候干预”计划。


According to Zheng Guoguang, the Director of the China Meteorological Administration, “Science and technology will answer the prayers of those living through the harshest drought in decades.”	照国家气象局局长郑国光的说法：“用科学技术就能拯救那些遭遇几十年来最严重旱灾的人民。


He says that two-thirds of China’s almost 3,000 counties have tried artificial methods to induce more rainfall, sometimes resulting in lawsuits over rights to mine passing clouds for water.	”他还提到中国3000多个县中已经有2/3试行了人工降雨，有时甚至在争夺雨云方面引发法律纠纷。


Such efforts, Zheng reports, have involved some 6,533 cannons, 5,939 rocket launchers, and numerous aircraft in an attempt to seed clouds across one-third of China’s landmass with dry ice, ammonia, and silver iodide.	这项工程共动用了6533门高炮，5939个火箭发射架以及许多架次的飞机来播撒干冰，液态氮和碘化银，好让覆盖中国大陆1/3面积的云团洒下雨来。


But can science and technology really solve problems that are not caused by China alone?	但光靠科学技术就能解决这些不仅由中国本身所导致的问题吗？


More and more scientists are beginning to suspect that global warming has caused the radically changed patterns of precipitation now seen across China.	越来越多的科学家开始怀疑当今中国降雨模式的剧变是由气候变化引发的。


If true, China will never resolve droughts such as the current one in Guizhou by itself, regardless of how many large-scale engineering projects the government undertakes, or how well organized remedial efforts are.	如果情况属实的话，不管中国政府上马多少大型工程或者组织了多么完美的补救措施，也永远不可能独力解决目前的干旱状况。


After all, global problems demand global solutions.	毕竟，应对全球性问题还得有全球性的解决方案。


When Chairman Mao still reigned supreme, one of his most vaunted principles was zili gengsheng, or “self-reliance.” Since China had been bullied, invaded, semi-colonized, and even occupied during most of his formative years, he was deeply suspicious that any foreign country – even a “fraternal” Communist ally – could ever be relied upon to leave China alone, much less actually help it.	在中国前国家主席毛泽东还大权在握之时，最令他本人感到骄傲的一句名言就是“自力更生”，当旧中国遭受列强威胁恐吓，入侵，半殖民地化，乃至在他青年时期还遭受占领的年月里，毛泽东就开始深深怀疑外国政权——甚至连共产主义“同志”也包括在内——是否会愿意让中国独立自主，更别说帮助中国了。


As a result, the Party leadership became steeped in suspicion and distrust toward the outside world, especially toward the so-called “great powers.”	中共领导层也因此逐渐变得多疑，对外界充满了不信任，尤其是对那些所谓的“超级大国”。


Even today, with Mao’s revolution long gone and globalization having knit a new fabric of inter-dependence around China, there remains, particularly among older leaders, a residual wariness about relying on collaboration with outsiders, especially when it comes to “core interests.”	时至今日，即便毛泽东的革命时代已成往事，全球化效应也已在中国周边编织了一张新的互相依存网之时，中国领导人（特别是老一代领导人）始终残留着对外部合作的警惕，尤其在涉及到“核心利益”的时候。


But it is not just world markets that have enmeshed China in a new commons. Issues such as nuclear proliferation and the global environment – and especially climate change – have also snuck up on China’s leaders (and everyone else).	但导致中国融入全球共同利益的不仅是全球市场，还有类似核扩散以及世界环境问题——尤其是气候变化——也都影响了中国的领导人（以及世界其他地方的领导人）。


Like it or not, leaders everywhere are now enfolded in an inescapable web.	不管是否愿意，全世界的领导人其实都被一张无法逃避的大网裹住了。


So, despite China’s predilection for aloofness, cooperation is not merely an option, but a necessity.	因此尽管中国喜欢独来独往，但合作已经不仅仅是一个选项，而是一种必需。


And that means that China also must reconsider its rigid notion of sovereignty.	对此中国也必须重新检讨自身对于主权的旧观念。


This is a difficult adjustment for any country to make, especially one like China, which has a history of imagining itself as being at the center of the world while also remaining an inviolable entity that can close its doors whenever it chooses to do so.	这种转变对任何国家来说都是个非常艰难的过程，尤其是中国这个曾经自以为是世界中心，同时也保留着一种不可侵犯的特质，随时都可以闭门谢客的国家。


That time is past.	但要知道这一切都已经是老一套了。


China’s leaders have been committed to a process of “opening” for more than a generation.	中国领导人已经承诺“开放”超过一代人时间。


But they remain neuralgic about any hint of outside interference, including even the suggestion that their nation’s business might also be the business of other peoples, and vice versa.	但他们对任何外部干涉的迹象依然保持着神经质式的敏感，即便是那种认为中国国内事务也可能是他国事务的建议，反之亦然。


The drought in Guizhou, whatever its cause, is a reminder that the fate of China’s people has become inextricably linked to what happens elsewhere, and that no country can opt out or find unilateral solutions separate from the global commonweal any longer.	贵州省的干旱，不管原因为何，都在提醒我们中国人民的命运已经无可避免地和其他地方发生的事务联系在了一起，而且再也没有一个国家，能够选择或者找到一个独立于全球利益共同体的单方面解决方案了。


The Secret of Dubai’s Success	迪拜成功的秘密


DUBAI – As governments across the Middle East try to wean themselves off natural resources and build diversified, resilient economies, they should take some lessons from Dubai.	迪拜——随着中东各国政府试图摆脱对自然资源的依赖并建立多样化、适应性强的经济，他们应当学习迪拜的经验。


It’s a remarkable story.	迪拜的故事令人叹为观止。


In less than a generation, Dubai has transformed itself into a major center for investment, commerce, and high-end culture.	迪拜只用了不到一代人的时间就实现了向投资商业和高端文化重要中心的转型。


Although the 2008 global financial crisis hit the city-state hard (owing to its exposure to inflated real-estate assets), it recovered quickly, as evidenced by its bids for events such as the World Expo 2020.	虽然2008年全球金融危机沉重打击了这个城市国家（因为其不动产资产风险高涨），但迪拜经济迅速得到了恢复，这一点由于迪拜申请主办2020年世博会而得到了证实。


How Dubai managed not only to survive, but to thrive, in the wake of the crisis warrants closer scrutiny.	我们应当仔细思考迪拜是怎样不仅在面对危机时生存下来，而且还实现了发展和繁荣。


So, this past summer, I began investigating the so-called Dubai model of resilient growth, and the challenges that may lie ahead for it.	因此，今年夏天，我开始调研所谓的迪拜弹性增长模式，以及这种模式可能面临的挑战。


As part of my research, I conducted more than 40 in-depth interviews with government officials and business elites, and fleshed out my findings with secondary data sources.	在研究中，我与政府官员和商界精英进行了40多次深度访谈，并以辅助数据资源来充实我的研究成果。


Dubai’s growth and resilience is attributable to its “ABS model” of attraction, branding, and state-led development.	迪拜的经济增长和适应性应归功于其吸引力、品牌和国家主导发展的“ABS模式”。


Just as a car’s anti-lock braking system prevents it from skidding out of control in dangerous situations, Dubai’s three-prong strategy keeps its development agenda on track, even during economic crises.	就像汽车的防抱死制动系统防止其在危险环境下侧滑失控，迪拜的三管齐下战略保证其发展计划不偏离轨道，即使是在经济危机之中。


With respect to state-led development, Dubai’s approach is typical of Gulf states.	在国家主导的经济发展方面，迪拜模式代表了海湾国家的典型。


Its society adheres to tribal traditions that afford its ruling elite, headed by the royal family, a paternal and omnipotent role in determining the direction and form of economic development.	迪拜社会坚持部落传统，支持由王室家族领导的精英统治者在决定经济发展方向及形式方面发挥无所不能的家长式作用。


This means that “Dubai, Inc.” can quickly and seamlessly adapt to changing economic circumstances.	这意味着这家“迪拜集团”可以迅速无缝地适应不断变化的经济环境。


Dubai is sometimes called the Singapore of the Desert, because, like Singapore, it has experienced enormous state-directed economic growth, and benefits from proactive, visionary leadership that has turned a small city-state with limited natural resources into an important international entrepôt.	迪拜有时被称为沙漠新加坡，因为它像新加坡一样经历了由政府主导的庞大经济增长，并因为积极主动、富有远见卓识的领导力而将一个自然资源有限的小型城市国家发展成为一个重要的国际贸易中心。


Moreover, Dubai has done a good job of branding itself to attract the foreign investment and labor needed to achieve its growth ambitions.	此外，迪拜成功建立了自主品牌，成功吸引了实现其增长目标所需的外资和劳动力大量流入。


Like New York, Shanghai, and Las Vegas, which have all enhanced their images through architecture, Dubai conveys its innovation-oriented identity through its cityscape and skyline, which has around 150 skyscrapers, more than any other city except New York and Hong Kong.	像借助城市景观和天际线提升城市形象的纽约、上海和拉斯维加斯一样，迪拜利用其自身的都市风光和空中轮廓展现了其以创新为主导的特征。 迪拜拥有约150座摩天大楼，这一数量超过了除纽约和香港之外的其他任何城市。


Dubai also has the first 3D-printed office building, stunning manmade islands, the world’s only (self-proclaimed) “seven-star hotel,” shopping malls combined with aquariums, indoor skiing, and skydiving facilities, and an array of iconic buildings and amusement parks.	迪拜还修建了首家3D打印办公楼、令人赞叹的人工岛、世界唯一一座（号称）“七星级的酒店”、内设水族馆的购物中心、室内滑雪和跳伞设施，以及一系列标志性游乐园和建筑物。


It also hosts the world’s most expensive horseraces and other lavish sporting events.	这里同时举办全世界最昂贵的赛马和其他奢侈的体育赛事。


Dubai’s brand is further strengthened by its political stability, safety, tolerance, cultural diversity, and high standard of living, which are a draw for skilled expatriates from around the world.	迪拜的政治稳定、安全、包容、文化多样性和高水准生活进一步强化了迪拜的品牌形象，吸引了来自世界各国的拥有熟练技术的外籍雇员。


Moreover, the emirate appeals to foreign investors with special economic zones that few other states can match.	此外，阿联酋用其他国家无法比拟的经济特区吸引外国投资者。


Two billion people live within a four-hour flight radius of Dubai, so it is unsurprising that it has emerged as a compelling location for visitors and investors alike.	迪拜四小时飞行半径内生活着20亿民众，因此它对游客和投资人拥有超强的吸引力原本就在意料之中。


As one businesswoman I interviewed put it, “Dubai has all the ingredients of an extremely popular attraction for investors and tourists from around the world,” with “a substantial number of Arab youth aspiring to come and live the ‘Dubai Dream.’”	就像我所采访的一位女性商人所说的那样，“强烈吸引世界各地投资者和游客的所有元素在迪拜全都具备，”同时有“大量阿拉伯青年梦想来到这里并实现‘迪拜梦’”。


Dubai has complemented its competitive advantage in attracting high-skill workers and investment with labor policies that also bring in lower-skill foreign workers to power its growth engine.	迪拜还成功地以能吸引低技术外来工人为其增长引擎注入动力的劳工政策吸引高技术工人和投资来对其竞争优势进行补充。


But reliance on foreign workers could run into structural problems down the road.	但不久的将来依靠外国工人可能会造成结构性问题。


While firms can quickly shed workers during hard times, this then results in labor shortages when conditions improve.	虽然企业可以在困难时期迅速裁减人员，但当经济条件逐步改善时却会导致劳动力短缺。


Higher-skill workers, in particular, take much longer to attract than to let go.	尤其是吸引比裁减高技术工人所需的时间要长得多。


Another risk is that, while the emirate has enjoyed a long period of political and economic stability, a significant regional upheaval could cause foreign workers, whatever their skill level, to take flight, regardless of the promise of high salaries and an attractive lifestyle.	另外一个危险因素是尽管阿拉伯联合酋长国政治和经济长期稳定，但重大的地区动荡却可能导致外国工人，无论其技术水平如何，不顾高薪承诺和引人入胜的生活方式匆忙逃离。


Dubai’s reliance on foreign labor thus threatens its long-term economic capacity to withstand future shocks.	迪拜对外国劳工的依赖也因此威胁到其抵御未来冲击的长期经济潜能。


Aware of these potential risks, Dubai’s leadership has just approved a comprehensive plan to overhaul education aimed at developing indigenous human capital.	正因为意识到这些潜在风险，迪拜领导层全面计划彻底改革教育以开发本土人力资本。


Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, said that, “We look forward to developing a new generation of students that is equipped to use the tools of the future.”	迪拜统治者谢赫·穆罕默德·本·拉希德表示，“我们期待培养出有能力使用未来工具的新一代学生。 ”


Educational reforms will likely require a generation or more to bear fruit.	教育改革可能需要一代人甚至更长时间才能取得成功。


Singapore eventually managed to develop a highly skilled base of indigenous talent by making large investments in education and setting completion of post-secondary study as a national priority.	新加坡最终通过大规模投资教育和优先普及国内中学以上教育成功了建立起一座高技能的本土人才库。


The city-state now scores near the top in science and math on international tests.	这座城市国家现在在科学和数学的国际测试中几乎得到最高分。


The ABS model explains Dubai’s economic resilience and its quick recovery after the global financial crisis.	ABS模式可以解释迪拜的经济活力以及全球金融危机后该国的迅速复苏。


But it also helps the emirate adjust its strategy to account for new challenges.	但它同时可以帮助酋长国为迎接新挑战而对国内领略进行调整。


Just as a car’s ABS makes it easier for a driver to slow down or change course to avoid dangerous obstacles, Dubai’s state-led development apparatus can realign its attraction and branding activities in accordance with its growth goals and changing circumstances in the Middle East and beyond.	就像汽车的ABS系统让驾驶者更容易减速或改变航向避开危险障碍一样，迪拜由国家主导的发展架构可以根据增长目标和中东地区及全球不断变化的情况调整其吸引力和品牌建设行为。


On the other hand, if the government fails to fix its structural problem – under-developed indigenous human capital – it will essentially be driving a more dangerous car, one in which it will become difficult or impossible to avoid obstacles without the wheels locking up.	另一方面，如果政府无法解决其结构性问题——也就是欠发达的本土人力资本——那么它本质上将驾驶着一辆更加危险的轿车，这辆车很难甚至根本不可能避开障碍，除非我们将车轮彻底锁定。


Dump the Lisbon Agenda	丢掉里斯本备忘录


As soon as he takes office as President of the European Commission, Durao Barroso - Portugal's former Prime Minister - should devote urgent attention to restoring order and focus to the European Union's economic policies.	刚接任欧盟委员会主席，葡萄牙前总理杜朗·巴罗佐就应立即着手恢复欧盟经济政策的秩序和重心。


The thickest file on his desk concerns the Lisbon agenda, an ambitious programme approved in 2000 by the EU heads of state and government with the goal of making the Union "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge economy" by 2010.	巴罗佐办公桌上堆积如山的文案都与里斯本备忘录有关，2000年，欧盟国家和政府领导人批准了一项雄心勃勃的计划，2010年前把欧盟建成"最有竞争力和活力的知识经济"。


All major fields of economic policy are covered: innovation and entrepreneurship, welfare reform and social inclusion, skills and employability, gender equality, labour and product market liberalisation, and "sustainable" development.	计划涵盖了所有主要的经济政策领域：包括创新和企业精神、福利改革和社会包容、劳动技术和就业能力、性别平等、劳动力和产品市场开放以及"可持续"发展。


All of these are worthy goals, to be sure, but they belong intrinsically to the sphere of national political decisions.	这些目标无疑都很有价值，但本质上却属于国家政治决策的范畴。


Indeed, under the European Treaties, the Union has no competence to enact legislation and policy in these domains, nor powers to enforce them.	按照欧盟条约的规定，欧盟实际无权在上述领域颁布法令和政策，更谈不上执行权。


But the European Council, spurred by the European Commission, invented a new policy approach - called "open coordination" - in order to impinge on these fields.	但在欧盟委员会的敦促下，欧洲理事会发明了新的政策方针，起名叫"公开协调"，目的无非是想挤进上述那些领域。


Open coordination entails the definition of common goals at the EU level, voluntary compliance by the member states, and peer review of results within the European Council.	公开协调规定：欧盟要对共同目标进行定义、由成员国自愿遵守，并在欧洲理事会开展同级审阅。


Inevitably, open coordination has failed to deliver on its promises.	这样的公开协调不可避免地遭到了失败。


Moreover, the delusion that the European Council can somehow call growth and productivity into being has provided a diversion to national politicians who are unwilling to push for unpopular decisions back home.	更有甚者，人们产生了欧洲理事会能以某种方式实现发展和生产率的错误看法，这给了本就不愿在国内推行不受欢迎政策的各国领导人转移目标的借口。


My first suggestion to Barroso, therefore, is to scrap the Lisbon agenda.	有鉴于此，我对巴罗佐的第一条建议就是彻底摒弃里斯本备忘录。


Only this will make it clear that responsibility for national economic performance lies with national policy-makers.	只有这样才能表明：各国决策者需要为国家经济状况承担责任。


This brings me to the subject of macroeconomic coordination at the EU level.	我再接着谈谈欧盟级别的宏观经济协调。


The Maastricht Treaty envisaged a simple policy framework for economic and monetary union.	《马斯特里赫特条约》设计了经济和货币联盟的简单政策框架。


Monetary policy was centralized and entrusted to an independent central bank, while fiscal policy was left to the member states.	货币政策由独立央行负责集中托管，而财政政策仍由各成员国自己负责。


National governments were made subject - under the excessive-deficit procedure - to the twin constraints that fiscal deficits should not exceed 3% of GDP and government debt should remain below 60% of GDP (or at least tend towards that value).	各国政府要遵守额外赤字程序的规定，接受财政赤字不超过国内生产总值3%和政府债务不超过国内生产总值60%的双重束缚（至少也要向上述数字靠拢）。


Later on, the Stability and Growth Pact added a requirement that, over the medium term, government accounts should be "close to balance."	稍后的《稳定和增长协议》又追加了一项规定：即从中期来看，政府帐户应达到"基本平衡"。


Essentially, this aimed to prevent irresponsible budgetary policies after the euro's launch, while leaving sufficient room for cyclical oscillations of the deficit within the 3% limit.	这项规定旨在欧元启用后，从本质上防止不负责任的预算政策，同时给赤字的周期性变动留出了足够的空间：上下波动的幅度不超过3%。


The credibility of this apparatus was badly damaged by the November 2003 public controversy between the Commission and the Ecofin Council over the application of the excessive-deficit procedure to France and Germany.	2003年11月，欧盟和经济财政理事会就额外赤字程序在法德两国的执行发生了公开的争执，使这项协议的可信度受到了沉重的打击。


This does not mean that it should be abandoned.	但这并不意味着这项协议应该放弃。


On the contrary, a common external constraint on fiscal behavior is needed as a joint safeguard against an unsustainable accumulation of public debt that could affect financial stability and inflation throughout the EU - a risk aggravated by the impact of aging populations on pension systems.	恰恰相反，我们需要对财政行为进行统一的外部限制，以便共同防范公共债务以超过承受能力的速度累积，并最终影响到整个欧洲的金融稳定和通货膨胀¾人口老龄化对养老金体系的压力更加剧了这样的危险。


Such a constraint also provides a welcome anchor for domestic decision-making in member states with weaker political systems.	如此限制也为政治体制相对较弱的成员国在国内的决策提供了颇受欢迎的支持。


But the system needs to be reviewed.	但这样的体系也需要接受审核。


I would not listen to those who advocate excluding investment from fiscal deficits: this would only offer new incentives for creative accounting and unsustainable accumulation of debt.	我不会听取鼓吹把投资从财政赤字中分离出去的言论：这只能重新刺激造假帐和超出承受能力地债务累积。


Instead, the emphasis should shift from annual deficits to debt sustainability.	恰恰相反，重点应该从年度赤字转向债务的可持续发展。


The debt criterion, for example, could be supplemented by a limit on the (trend) growth rate of public spending, which would be kept below that of nominal GDP.	举个例子，限制公共开支增长率（势头）可以作为债务标准的一个补充，这个增长率不允许超过国内生产总值限定的百分比。


The Commission's powers to initiate action when there is a risk of excessive deficits should be strengthened - provided, of course, that the Commission never again forgets that surveillance of national policies is a task that requires political judgment and cannot be left to accountants and lawyers.	应该加强额外赤字危险出现时委员会的行动能力，当然前提条件是委员会永远牢记对国内政策的监督是一项需要政治判断的任务，不能简单地推给会计师和律师来完成。


Finally, top priority should be assigned to completing the Single European Market, in which the Union has powerful legal instruments to pry open markets and sustain competition.	最后，要把实现单一欧洲市场作为工作的重中之重。 欧盟在这方面具备有力的法律手段，来考察开放市场和保护竞争。


The best therapy for reinvigorating growth is both direct, by increasing competitive pressure, and indirect, by triggering the necessary adaptation in national employment, welfare, and education policies.	重新激发增长活力的验方既包含增加竞争压力的直接作用，也需要调整国内就业、福利和教育政策的必要的间接措施。


The job is far from finished.	这项工作还远没有结束。


State aid to ailing companies remains ubiquitous, and common rules designed to ensure free circulation of goods and services are not fully respected by the member states - public procurement and energy markets being prime examples.	国家对处于困境的公司提供支援的做法非常普遍，旨在确保商品和服务自由流通的共同规则也没有得到成员国的完全遵守¾在这方面公共采购和能源市场就是最主要的例子。


Moreover, most markets for services - securities trading, wholesale and retail distribution, business services, and local utilities - remain sheltered from competition and free circulation rules.	更有甚者，绝大多数的服务市场¾证券交易、批零流通、企业服务和本地设施¾依旧置于政府的保护之下，不受竞争和自由流通规则的约束。


Empirical evidence indicates that these distortions in the market for services, which account for about two thirds of GDP, underlie most of the EU's productivity gap with the United States.	经验表明服务市场在这些方面的扭曲在国内生产总值中占到了三分之二的比重，这也是造成欧盟与美国生产率差距的主要原因。


In recent years the European Council has not devoted sufficient attention to these tasks, which require full and continuing commitment by member states to transpose and implement Community directives.	只有成员国不断全力支持调整欧盟的指令，才有可能实现最终的目标。 但近些年来，欧洲理事会没有对这项工作给予足够的重视。


All too often, the Commission has favored enacting new legislation and creating new spending programs over the effective administration of what already exists.	太多情况下，欧盟都喜欢颁布新的法律、制定新的开支计划，而不是有效管理已经存在的项目。


So Barroso should forget the high-flying platitudes of the Lisbon agenda and focus instead on effective completion of the Single Market and keeping the member states' fiscal policies in order.	因此巴罗佐应该忘掉里斯本备忘录里野心勃勃的陈词滥调，转而关注单一市场的实现、维护成员国的财务政策秩序。


Let national governments take responsibility for their countries' economic performance.	让各国政府去为国家经济状况的问题负责吧。


Dying in Court	法庭上的死亡


UTRECHT – Gloria Taylor, a Canadian, has amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.	发自荷兰乌得勒支市——加拿大人格洛莉亚·泰勒是一位肌萎缩侧索硬化症（amyotrophic lateral sclerosis，也称卢伽雷病）患者。


Over a period of a few years, her muscles will weaken until she can no longer walk, use her hands, chew, swallow, speak, and ultimately, breathe. Then she will die.	在数年内她的肌肉将逐渐失去功能，以致其无法走路，使用双手，咀嚼，吞咽，说话，最终连呼吸都无法进行，然后就只有死亡。


Taylor does not want to go through all of that. She wants to die at a time of her own choosing.	泰勒不想忍受上述过程，希望能在自己选定的某个时候死去。


Suicide is not a crime in Canada, so, as Taylor put it: “I simply cannot understand why the law holds that the able-bodied who are terminally ill are allowed to shoot themselves when they have had enough because they are able to hold a gun steady, but because my illness affects my ability to move and control my body, I cannot be allowed compassionate help to allow me to commit an equivalent act using lethal medication.”	在加拿大自杀并不是一项罪行，因此正如泰勒所说：“我就是无法理解为何法律允许那些身患绝症但活动自如的人在受够了折磨之后举枪自杀，理由仅仅是因为他们可以把枪稳稳地拿在手里，而由于我的病影响了我行动以及控制自己身体的能力，就不允许我在同情者的协助下用药物实施同等的行为。 ”


Taylor sees the law as offering her a cruel choice: either end her life when she still finds it enjoyable, but is capable of killing herself, or give up the right that others have to end their lives when they choose.	泰勒认为法律使她面临一个残酷的抉择：要么在还可以享受生活而且有能力自杀时结束自己的生命，要么放弃其他人也拥有的按照自身意愿终结生命的权利。


She went to court, arguing that the provisions of the Criminal Code that prevent her from receiving assistance in dying are inconsistent with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which gives Canadians rights to life, liberty, personal security, and equality.	她向法院上诉，认为《刑法》中的禁止她获得他人协助下自杀的条款违反了《加拿大权利和自由宪章》，后者给予了加拿大人生命权，自由权，人身安全权和平等权。


The court hearing was remarkable for the thoroughness with which Justice Lynn Smith examined the ethical questions before her.	而这场法庭聆讯之所以会如此引人注目，是因为法官林恩·史密夫（Lynn Smith）对摆在她面前的这些道德问题进行了极为透彻的研究。


She received expert opinions from leading figures on both sides of the issue, not only Canadians, but also authorities in Australia, Belgium, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.	她听取了事件正反方领军人物的专家意见，不仅仅是加拿大，还有澳大利亚、比利时、荷兰、新西兰，瑞士，英国和美国的权威部门。


The range of expertise included general medicine, palliative care, neurology, disability studies, gerontology, psychiatry, psychology, law, philosophy, and bioethics.	专家阵容涵盖普通医学，保守疗法护理，神经病学，残疾研究，老年医学，精神病学，心理学，法律和生物伦理学。


Many of these experts were cross-examined in court.	上述专家中的许多人都在法庭上接受了原告和被告双方的质询。


Along with Taylor’s right to die, decades of debate about assistance in dying came under scrutiny.	与泰勒的死亡权一道，数十年关于协助死亡的讨论都得到了仔细的审视。


Last month, Smith issued her judgment.	史密夫在上月宣布了她的判决。


The case, Carter v. Canada, could serve as a textbook on the facts, law, and ethics of assistance in dying.	这个卡特诉加拿大（Carter v. Canada）的案子也足以在协助死亡的事实，法律和道德方面被写入教科书。


For example, there has been much debate about the difference between the accepted practice of withholding life support or some other treatment, knowing that the patient is likely to die without it, and the contested practice of actively helping a patient to die.	比如说，对于生命维持或是其他疗法——明知患者在撤除治疗后将会死亡——的可接受行为，以及积极协助病人结束生命的争议性行为两者之间的区别。


Smith’s ruling finds that “a bright-line ethical distinction is elusive,” and that the view that there is no such ethical distinction is “persuasive.”	史密夫的裁定认为“难以找到一个明确的道德分界线”而那些认为不存在这种道德分界的观点是“有说服力的”。


She considers, and accepts, an argument advanced by Wayne Sumner, a distinguished Canadian philosopher: if the patient’s circumstances are such that suicide would be ethically permissible were the patient able to do it, then it is also ethically permissible for the physician to provide the means for the patient to do it.	她考虑并接受加拿大著名哲学家韦恩·森纳（Wayne Sumner）所提出的观点：如果道德允许病人在特定病情且力所能及的情况下实施自杀，那么医生为病人提供所需的手段在道德上也是可以容许的。


Smith also had to assess whether there are public-policy considerations that count against the legalization of physician assistance in dying.	史密夫同时也必须评估是否有一些不利于医生协助死亡合法化的公共政策考虑。


Her decision focuses mainly on the risk that vulnerable people – for example, the aged or those with disabilities – will be pressured into accepting assistance in dying when they do not really want it.	她的决定主要集中在那些容易受害的人群——比如老人或者残疾人——可能在违背个人意愿的情况下被迫接受协助死亡的风险。


There are conflicting views about whether legalization of voluntary euthanasia in the Netherlands, and of physician assistance in dying in Oregon, has led to an increase in the number of vulnerable people being killed or assisted in dying withouttheirfull, informed consent.	对于荷兰自愿安乐死以及美国俄勒冈州医生协助死亡的合法化是否导致更多的易受害人群在缺乏完全知情同意的情况下被杀或者协助死亡，人们有着针锋相对的看法。


For many years, Herbert Hendin, a psychiatrist and suicide expert, has asserted that the safeguards incorporated in these laws fail to protect the vulnerable.	许多年来，精神病医生兼自杀研究专家赫尔伯特·恩丁（Herbert Hendin）一直声称这些法律中所包含的保护措施未能保护那些易受害人群。


He gave evidence at the trial.	他在法庭上提交了相关证据。


So, too, on the other side, did Hans van Delden, a Dutch nursing home physician and bioethicist who for the past 20 years has been involved in all of the major empirical studies of end-of-life decisions in his country. Peggy Battin, the most prominent American bioethicist working on assisted dying and euthanasia, also took the stand.	而在另一方面，在过去20年中参与了本国所有重大终结生命决定观察研究的荷兰护理院医生兼生物伦理学家汉斯·范德尔登（Hans van Delden），还有美国在协助死亡和安乐死方面最负盛名的生物伦理学家佩吉·巴丁（Peggy Battin），都持有相反的观点。


In this dispute, Smith comes down firmly on the side of van Delden and Battin, finding that “the empirical evidence gathered in the two jurisdictions does not support the hypothesis that physician-assisted death has imposed a particular risk to socially vulnerable populations.”	在这场辩论中，史密夫最终坚定采信了范德尔登和巴丁的观点，裁定“在两个地区所收集到的观察证据并不支持那些认为医生协助死亡会对社会易受害人群带来特定风险的假设”。


Instead, she says, “The evidence does support Dr. van Delden’s position that it is possible for a state to design a system that both permits some individuals to access physician-assisted death and socially protects vulnerable individuals and groups.”	相反，她说“证据确实支持范德尔登医生的立场，一个国家是有可能设计一个体制，一方面允许某些个人获得医生协助死亡，另一方面也能在社会上保护易受伤害的个人和群体。


(The most recent Dutch report, released after Smith handed down her judgment, confirms that there has been no dramatic increase in euthanasia cases in the Netherlands.)	”（在史密夫做出判决后荷兰最近发表的报告确认本国的安乐死人数并没有显著上升。 ）


Smith then declared, after considering the applicable law, that the provisions of the Criminal Code preventing physician assistance in dying violate disabled people’s right not only to equality, but also to life, liberty, and security.	在考虑了适当的法律后，史密夫随后宣布《刑法》中反对医师协助死亡的条款不但侵犯了残疾人的平等权，还有生命权，自由权和人身安全权。


She thus opened the door for physician assistance in dying for any grievously and irremediably ill competent adult, under conditions not very different from those that apply in other jurisdictions where physician assistance in dying is legal.	因此她为那些身患恶疾且无法医治的有行为能力的成年人打开了接受协助死亡的大门，其执行条件与其他协助死亡合法化的国家和地区并没有太大的区别。


The decision will almost certainly be appealed, and the final outcome seems likely to depend on the appellate judges’ interpretations of Canadian law.	这个决定几乎肯定会遭到反方的上诉，最终的结果似乎将取决于上诉法庭法官对加拿大法律的诠释。


But Smith’s verdict on the ethics of assistance in dying – and of the facts regarding jurisdictions, like the Netherlands and Oregon, that have it – seems likely to stand for a long time to come.	但史密夫对协助死亡道德性的裁决——以及荷兰和美国俄勒冈州等安乐死合法化的国家和地区的事实——相信都能经得起时间的考验。


Dying to Grow?	为了长高不要命？


STANFORD – We are constantly bombarded with information about the purported risks or protective effects of one or another food, dietary supplement, chemical, drug, or activity.  In July, for example, an article in The Annals of Internal Medicine reported that people who work at least 11 hours a day have a 67% higher risk of having a heart attack or dying from heart disease than those who work 7-8 hours a day.	发自斯坦福——活在这个世界上，我们每天都会遭到关于各类食品，营养补充剂，化学品，药物或行为的所谓风险或保健作用的信息轰炸。 恰好今年7月的《内科医学年报》就刊登了一篇文章，说每天工作超过11小时的人罹患或者死于心脏病的风险要比工作7-8小时的人高出67%。


However, the study cannot conclude that long work hours cause cardiac disease.	但此项研究无法得出长时间工作引发心脏病的结论。


In fact, one of the most common misunderstandings about scientific studies is the critical difference between correlation and causation.	事实上，对科学研究的最大误解就在于相关关系和因果关系的区别之上。


Working long days might be only a marker for being at higher risk of heart disease.	长时间工作或许只是容易患心脏病的一个标志而已。


For example, it could be that highly stressed people with Type A personality who think that bacon cheeseburgers and creamy sauces are staple foods, and who already have an increased, long-term risk of heart disease, also tend to work longer hours.	除此之外，没准那些拥有A型人格——特别喜欢给自己施加过度压力——又嗜好培根芝士汉堡和奶油的人，或是那些本身就长期潜伏着心脏病风险的人，也喜欢长时间工作啊。


Studies that show an association between a factor and a health effect should be regarded as no more than a preliminary result that points researchers toward further research and analysis.	所以说，那些查出某个因素与某种健康效应相关的研究只能被视为一个初步的研究成果，其作用仅限于指导研究人员继续深入研究和分析。


But even professional regulators, who should know better, sometimes get sidetracked by this sort of misapprehension, and overreact.	可惜即便是那些本应深谙此道的监管部门官员有时也会受到类似的误导并随之反应过度。


Last December, the US Food and Drug Administration issued a public Drug Safety Communication about results from a large study conducted in France – the Santé Adulte GH Enfant, or SAGhE, study – which found an increased risk for death with biosynthetic human growth hormone therapy relative to the general French population.  There were 93 deaths in the treated group, compared with the 70 expected from a statistical calculation.	比如法国近年进行了一项名为“儿童重组人生长激素服用者健康状况（SAGhE）”的大型研究。 其研究结果显示，曾接受生物合成人体增高激素治疗的患者死亡率高于一般人。


One news article reported the study and FDA alert with this headline, “Are children dying for an inch or two?” – language guaranteed to terrify the tens of thousands of patients (and the innumerable body-builders and athletes who use the drug off-label) who have taken the hormone over the past 26 years.	某报依据这一警告登出这么一个头条“儿童因长高一两英寸致死？ ”——此语一出，估计足以把数万曾在过去26年内服用过这类激素的病人（以及大批暗中服用激素的健美人士和运动员）吓个半死了。


This brings us back to the conundrum of correlation versus causation.	这个例子又把我们带回到了相关关系和因果关系的难题上。


The French study compared all patients who took growth hormone to the general population.	那个法国研究把所有服用了增高激素的病人与普通法国人进行对比。


But the two groups are not at all comparable: kids who receive the drug are far from normal.	但实际上这两个人群根本不存在可比性：服用这种药物的孩子与普通人根本不同。


These include growth-hormone deficiency of unknown cause or as a result of impairment of the pituitary gland’s ability to produce the hormone, owing to traumatic injury or irradiation to treat cancer. It is also administered to children who fail to grow because of chronic renal insufficiency or significant genetic abnormalities, including Turner syndrome, Noonan syndrome, and Prader-Willi syndrome.	增高激素一般用在各类身高不足的儿童身上，其中包括出于未知因素，严重受伤或者癌症化疗导致脑垂体受损而患有增高荷尔蒙缺陷的儿童，以及患有慢性肾功能不足或明显遗传异常，包括特纳综合症，努范氏综合症以及普瑞德-威利综合症等病症的儿童。


These kids are severely impaired.	这些儿童的身体机能都严重失常。


Turner syndrome, a chromosomal abnormality in which all or part of one of the sex chromosomes is absent, manifests itself in several ways.	比如特纳综合症是一种染色体异常病，其特征为其中一个性染色体出现全部或部分缺失。


These include characteristic physical abnormalities (most often non-functioning ovaries, which results in the absence of menstrual cycles and sterility) and various other health problems, such as congenital heart disease, low thyroid hormone levels, and autoimmune diseases.	其征状有好几种：包括明显的身体异常（通常是卵巢功能丧失，导致月经不至和不孕不育）和先天性心脏病，甲状腺水平低下和自身免疫性疾病等其他健康问题。


Similarly, Noonan syndrome, a relatively common genetic disorder, is marked by abnormal development in various systems of the body that causes unusual facial characteristics, short stature, and cardiac abnormalities.	同理，努范氏综合症，一种较为普遍的基因紊乱症，伴随有身体各种系统的异常发展，从而导致面貌异常，侏儒和心脏畸形等问题。


Prader-Willi syndrome is characterized by poor muscle tone, low levels of sex hormones, and a defect in the part of the brain that controls feelings of satiety or hunger, which leads to overeating and obesity.	普瑞德-威利综合症则有如下特征，肌张力差，性激素水平低下以及大脑控制饱饿感的部分出现缺陷，从而导致过度进食和肥胖。


Thus, to expect the same death rate in such patients as in the general population would be like blaming insulin for decreased longevity in diabetics (who suffer cardiac and renal disease more frequently than non-diabetics).	可见，期望这些病人和常人拥有相同的死亡率，无异于指责胰岛素缩短了糖尿病人的寿命（糖尿病人要比非糖尿病人更频繁地遭遇心脏和肾脏疾病）。


In fact, it would be big medical news if there were no increase in deaths in patients treated with growth hormone, because that would imply that the drug actually provides a life-prolonging effect in a population expected to die prematurely.	相反，如果服用了增高激素的病人死亡率没有升高，那才是医学界的大新闻呢。 因为这意味着这些药物实际上延长了一个低寿命群体的生命。


Another finding in the SAGhE study arouses skepticism about a cause-and-effect relationship between the drug and the increased death rate: the mortality came from causes that are mechanistically and physiologically quite different – mainly bone cancers, cardiovascular diseases, and cerebrovascular events.	SAGhE研究的另一个发现也引发了人们对该药物和死亡率上升之间因果关系的怀疑。 调查显示服用者的各类致死原因无论是在作用机理和生理上都存在巨大差异——主要是骨癌，心血管疾病和脑血管疾病。


A more narrow, unimodal manifestation of toxicity would be more persuasive in establishing causation.	而如果建立某种因果关系的话，把死亡归因于为相对狭隘单一的中毒表现才能更有说服力。


American regulators jumped the gun.	综上所述，美国药物管理局的官员在此事上有点神经过敏了。


The European Medicines Agency was more measured, saying in a statement, “Based on this observational study alone, the risk cannot be associated with certainty to the growth hormone treatment.	相比来说，欧洲药品管理局则更为慎重，在一份声明中，它指出“仅仅根据一份观察性研究并不足以确��服用增高激素及其风险之间的相关性。


The results need to be confirmed and complemented with further analyses.”	研究的结果需要更进一步的分析才能得到确认和补充。 ”


There is a reproducible, undeniable association between fires and fire engines, but that doesn’t mean that the latter cause the former.	火灾和消防车之间存在无可置疑的重要联系，而且这种联系还是可以重复验证的，但也不能据此认为是消防车引起了火灾。


If you or a loved one has taken (or is taking) human growth hormone under a physician’s supervision, you shouldn’t lose sleep over it.	因此假如你或你爱的人在医生指导下服用过（或正在服用）增高激素，无须害怕，大可安枕无忧。


Dysfunctional Disarmament	机能失调的裁军


GENEVA – As the United Nations Conference on Disarmament begins a seven-week session in Geneva, its future is on the line.	发自日内瓦——在联合国裁军会议于日内瓦展开一段为期7个星期议程的同时，整个会议却面临着前途未卜的苦况。


Whereas countries and civil-society initiatives are on the move, the Conference has stagnated.	当世界各国和公民社会组织都在积极运作之时，会议的进程则陷入了停滞之中。


Its credibility – indeed, its very legitimacy – is at risk.	而会议的公信力——事实上就是其最核心的合法性——正岌岌可危。


The “CD,” as it is informally known, has long served as the world’s only multilateral forum for negotiating disarmament.	这个被简称为“CD”的会议长期以来都是全球唯一一个进行裁军谈判的多边论坛。


Its many impressive accomplishments include the Biological and Chemical Weapons Conventions, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.	而包括《禁止生物武器公约》、《禁止化学武器公约》，《不扩散核武器条约》以及《全面禁止核试验条约》在内的一系列条约则彰显出会议所取得的诸多杰出成就。


Much of this progress was achieved during the Cold War, proving that it is possible to create global legal norms even in times of deep political division.	事实上其中大部分成就都是在冷战时期取得的，而这同时也证明了一点：即便是在全球政治形势极端对立的情况下也是可以达成某些法律规范的。


Yet today, all is not well at the CD.	但时至今日，裁军会议已经变得千疮百孔。


It operates under a consensus rule, and its member states have different priorities.	会议的运作基于共识原则，但其成员国却有着各自不同的利益考虑。 有些国家希望在裁军方面进行谈判；


Some want negotiations on nuclear disarmament; others want to ban the production of fissile material for weapon purposes; and still others insist that such a treaty should also cover existing stocks.	另一些则希望禁止将核物质应用在武器方面； 还有一些国家认为这一条约应涵盖现有的核武库存。


Some want a treaty on security guarantees for non-nuclear-weapon states to assure them against the threat or use of nuclear weapons; others want a treaty to prevent an arms race in outer space.	有些国家希望订立一个安全保证条约，确保无核国家不会受到核武器威胁； 而另一些国家则试图订立条约防止在外太空出现军备竞赛。


But, instead of compromise and the give-and-take of good-faith discussions, there has been paralysis.	然而会议却没有在妥协和交换的善意讨论中继续前进，而是陷入了瘫痪。


There was a brief glimmer of hope in 2009, when the sense of paralysis led the Conference to consensus on a program of work.	在2009年时曾出现过一线曙光，因为瘫痪的态势迫使成员国在一系列事务上达成了共识。


Unfortunately, that agenda was never implemented.	但不幸的是，那个议程却从未真正付诸实施。


As a result, the CD has failed to make any substantive progress for 15 years.	结果就是裁军会议在15年来都未取得任何实质性进展。


We simply must not let one lost decade turn into a second.	我们已经经历了一个“失落的十年”，也断然不能让会议继续走入下一个类似的十年。


The CD’s future is in the hands of its member states.	裁军会议的前途掌握在其会员国手中。


But the disarmament and non-proliferation agenda is too important to let the CD lapse into irrelevancy as states consider other negotiating arenas.	但裁军以及核不扩散议程是如此重要，以致让会议走入了歧路，而各成员国只得各自寻找其他谈判平台。


Last September, I convened a high-level meeting at the UN to consider ways to revitalize the CD’s work and to advance multilateral disarmament negotiations.	去年九月，我在联合国召集了一场高规格会议来研究如何重新启动裁军会议的工作并推动多边裁军谈判进程。


The participants – who included dozens of foreign ministers – were unanimous in stressing that membership of the CD is a privilege. So is the consensus rule.	那场会议的参与者（其中包括二十多个国家的外交部长）都一致强调裁军会议成员国资格是一种特殊待遇，而其共识原则也同等重要。


Just one or two countries should not be able to block the organization’s work indefinitely.	同时也不能允许其中一两个国家无限期地阻挠组织的工作进程。


The message was clear: no more business as usual.	其传达的信息相当明确：不能再像以往那样了。


The CD’s member states must recognize that the Conference’s future is at a critical juncture.	裁军会议成员国们必须认识到会议的前途正徘徊在一个重要关口。


Continued stalemate increases the risk that some like-minded countries might take up the matter elsewhere.	僵局持续得越久，某些志同道合的国家另觅他处进行谈判的可能性就越大。


After all, the deadlock has ominous implications for international security; the longer it persists, the graver the nuclear threat – from existing arsenals, from the proliferation of such weapons, and from their possible acquisition by terrorists.	而这一僵局对国际安全形势也有着极为不利的影响； 越是停滞不前，由核武库存，核武扩散和恐怖分子获得核武器的可能性所导致的核威胁就越大。


I have urged the CD to adopt an agenda based either on the consensus that was forged in 2009, or on an alternative arrangement.	为此我敦促裁军会议要么着手推动一个基于2009年共识的议程，要么重新选择另一方案展开工作。


Upon my request, the UN’s entire membership will take up the matter in a first-of-its-kind General Assembly meeting this July.	在我的要求下，所有联合国成员国将在今年7月的联合国大会会议上首度对此进行讨论。


That schedule makes the CD’s current session crucial to its future.	而这一时间安排使得当前举行的裁军大会议程对其前途影响极为巨大。


Reaffirming the CD’s agenda offers the prospect of renewed negotiations on disarmament issues.	裁军会议议程的重启使得裁军谈判的再次启动成为可能。


Prior agreement on the scope or outcome should not be a precondition for talks – or an excuse to avoid them – but rather a subject of the negotiations themselves.	而之前对于议题范围和结果的协议不应成为对话的前提——或者逃避对话的借口，而应当被视为谈判自身的一个议题。


The current stalemate is all the more troubling in view of recent momentum on other disarmament tracks, including last year’s successful NPT Review Conference and heightened attention to nuclear security.	此外其他裁军路径的发展态势（包括去年成功举办的《不扩散核武器条约》审议大会以及人们对核安全的更多关注）也使得当前的僵局显得越发困难重重。


With the world focused so intently on advancing disarmament goals, the CD should seize the moment.	当全世界都密切关注推动裁军目标的时候，裁军会议也应把握住这个时机。


Shakespeare once wrote that “there is a tide in the affairs of men.”	莎士���亚曾经写道：“人世的起伏有如潮起潮落。


The tide of disarmament is rising, yet the CD is in danger of sinking.	”如今裁军的高潮已然到来，但裁军会议却身在低潮的边缘。


And it will sink unless it fulfills its responsibility to act.	而倘若不能履行其行动责任的话，那么会议就将最终跌落谷底。


Preschool Confidential	学前秘诀


BERKELEY – High-quality early childhood education is one of those rare issues that unites people of all social strata and across the political spectrum.	伯克利—高质量早教是为数极少的能让社会各阶层和政治各派别联合起来的问题之一。


But the consensus about the benefits – both for the children and society – does not extend to delivery and funding.	但关于早教的好处——包括对儿童和对社会——的共识并没有带来供给和资金。


The good news is that, with an impressive array of new models being implemented, important lessons are emerging about how to shape, finance, and scale future early education programs.	好消息是，随着一系列令人印象深刻的新模式的实施，我们正在获得关于如何制定、融资和扩大未来早教项目的经验。


To understand what these models are trying to achieve, it is useful to consider the science that underlies them.	要理解这些模式试图实现什么，一个有用的办法是考虑它们所基于的科学。


The evidence is increasingly clear that the early years of life are crucial to brain development, with 700-1,000 new neural connections occurring every second during the first three years of life.	证据日益清楚地表明出生最初几年是大脑发育的关键，在零到三岁，每秒钟都会发生700—1,000次神经连接。


The number of words a child hears during that critical time has a huge impact on his or her future intellectual abilities.	幼儿在此期间听到的词汇数量对于其未来智力能力有着巨大的影响。


Yet there is a major discrepancy between the number of words heard by children of professional parents and those of working-class families – three million per year in the United States.	但职业父母的儿童和工人阶级的儿童所听到的词汇数量之间存在重大差异——在美国可达每年三百万之巨。


Whereas high-income households have an average of 12 books per child, more than half of the day-care centers for the lowest-income children do not have a single book.	高收入家庭平均每个儿童拥有12本书，而一大半低收入儿童日间托儿所一本书都没有。


Some programs are helping to level the playing field.	一些项目有助于拉平差距。


For example, an initiative in the US called First 5 California funds programs that educate parents, grandparents, caregivers, and teachers about the critical role they play during a child’s first five years.	比如，美国有一个叫做First 5 California的计划，出资支持为父母、祖父母、育儿者和教师提供关于他们在孩子五岁前所扮演的关键作用的教育。


But what a child learns at home is just part of the issue (albeit a very important part).	但儿童在家中学到什么只是问题的一部分（尽管是非常重要的一部分）。


Children, the evidence suggests, also need school.	证据表明，儿童也需要学校。


Across the OECD, students who attend preschool for one year or more scored significantly higher (30 points) on its Programme for International Student Assessment reading tests than those who did not. This has important implications in terms of lifetime achievement.	在经合组织，接受学前教育一年或以上的学生比未接受学前教育的学生在国际学生评估项目（Programme for International Student Assessment）中的得分显著更高（30分）。


Indeed, long-term studies suggest that early childhood education can increase earnings in adulthood by 1.3-3.5%.	事实上，长期研究表明早期儿童教育能够提高成年后收入1. 3—3.


Add to that the opportunity that early school attendance provides to parents – and mothers, in particular – to work, and it should be no surprise that investment in early education brings major long-term economic and financial benefits.	除此之外，早期入学也为家长提供了工作机会——特别是母亲，因此，毫不奇怪早教投资能带来巨大的长期经济和财务收益。


According to Nobel laureate James Heckman, investments in early education bring very attractive returns, even compared to investment in other stages of education.	据诺贝尔经济学奖获得者詹姆斯·赫克曼（James Heckman）的数据，早教投资带来非常诱人的回报，即使桶其他阶段的教育投资相比仍然如此。


Such data have spurred a flurry of initiatives to improve early education.	这些数据刺激了一阵改善早教的计划。


In 2014, the United Kingdom expanded public support for families earning less than £16,190 ($23,648) per year to enable two-year-olds to receive 15 hours of education per week for 38 weeks per year.	2014年，英国扩大了年收入不到16,190英镑的家庭的公共支持，以使两岁儿童能够接受每年38周、每周15小时的的教育。


Today, nearly three-quarters of two-year-olds are enrolled in preschool, giving their mothers the opportunity to work or study.	如今，近四分之三的两岁儿童进入学前班，他们的母亲也因此获得了工作或学习机会。


But the public sector is not alone in pursuing such investment.	但在追求早教投资方面，公共部门并不是唯一的实践者。


Business leaders have also gotten involved, driven by concerns that education is failing to keep up with the demands of the changing economy.	商业领袖也已经参与进来，他们的动力来自对教育无法跟进变化的经济的要求的担忧。


In Tennessee, for example, business leaders were among the first to invest in early education.	比如，在田纳西州，商业领袖是第一批投资于早教的人之一。


Their experiences reinforced the need not just to get more kids in school, but to focus on providing high-quality education that is well-governed, involves student’s families, and is linked to subsequent schooling.	他们的经验强化了��种必要性，即不但要让更多的孩子入学，还要注重提供治理良好、有学生家庭参与、与后续学校教育相联系的高质量教育。


Efforts to link the public and the private have also emerged.	连接公共和私人项目的努力也已经出现。


Warren Buffett’s daughter, Susan Buffett, created the Alliance for Early Success, which brings together various stakeholders to encourage investments and policies that lead to improved health, learning, and economic outcomes for children in the first eight years of life.	沃伦·巴菲特的女儿苏珊·巴菲特成立了早期成功联盟（Alliance for Early Success），该机构聚集了众多相关利益方，鼓励带来八岁前儿童健康、学习和经济结果改善的投资和政策。


The link between education and health has shaped other programs.	教育和健康之间的联系决定了其他项目。


California’s First 5 Commission (which is funded by a tobacco tax) has galvanized pediatricians – a group that parents are predisposed to trust – to help parents understand the importance of engaging with their children in ways that advance their health and cognitive development.	加利福尼亚州的零到五岁委员会（First 5 Commission，用烟草税收入提供资金）激励儿科医生——父母和倾向于信任的群体——帮助父母理解以改善孩子健康和认知发育的方式与孩子互动的重要性。


Important initiatives have also been implemented at the municipal level.	市政层面也实施了一些重要计划。


San Antonio, Texas, made investment in early education a priority.	德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市将早教列为投资重点。


For a Democrat-led city in a Republican-dominated state, bipartisan agreement – achieved through the efforts of former Mayor Julián Castro and Governor Greg Abbott – was essential.	在这个共和党主导州的民主党领导的城市，两党一致——归功于前市长朱利安·卡斯特罗（Julián Castro）和州长格雷格·阿伯特（Greg Abbott）的努力——至关重要。


New York City’s early-education program is perhaps America’s largest, with over 65,000 children enrolled in preschool at an annual cost exceeding $300 million.	纽约市的早教项目也许是美国规模最大的，65,000儿童进入学前班，每年耗费超3亿美元。


Educational quality is also emphasized, with three qualified applicants for every open teaching position.	教育质量也得到了强调，每个公开招聘的教师岗位有三位合格候选人选竞争。


But critics point out a lapse in the program: low enrollment rates among children from poorer zip codes.	但批评者认为该项目有一个缺陷：较贫困社区儿童入学率很低。


Given that disadvantaged children benefit the most from early childhood education, this is a serious shortcoming.	由于弱势儿童从早教中受益最大，因此这是一个严重缺陷。


The state of Utah is addressing head-on the challenge of getting lower-income students in school.	犹他州正在正面解决低收入儿童入学的挑战。


It has entered into one of America’s first pay-for-success contracts (also known as a social-impact bond) to improve early education in high-need communities.	它实施了美国首个成功后付费契约（也称为社会契约债券）以改善高需求社区的早教情况。 高盛公司和普利兹克基金会（J.


Goldman Sachs and the J.B. Pritzker Foundation have provided $7 million in investment to fund the program; their investment will be repaid with future savings.	Pritzker Foundation）提供了700美元投资为该项目融资； 它们的投资将用未来储蓄偿还。


The program achieved such promising early results that it was quickly expanded to include additional children.	该项目的早期结果非常出色，因此得到了迅速扩大以容纳更多儿童。


One of the more ambitious initiatives being implemented today in the US is the Big Lift in San Mateo County, California, which is working to ensure that all children in the county read at grade level by third grade (the current rate is 43%).	加利福尼亚州圣马提奥县（San Mateo County）的Big Lift是如今美国实施的目标更宏大的计划之一，它致力于确保该县所有儿童于都水平达到三年级（目前为43%）。


The program focuses on building capacity for early education and improving support for the children who need the most help.	该项目注重于建设早教容量和改善对最需要帮助的儿童的支持。


Initiated by a broad coalition of county leaders and funded by a combination of county sales tax, federal grants, and philanthropy, the Big Lift has raised $28 million and gotten more than 200 organizations involved.	Big Lift由一个县领导人组成的广泛联盟发起，资金来源包括县消费税、联邦拨款和慈善机构，目前已筹资2,800万美元，超过200个参与。


Clearly, there is no shortage of models for improving the delivery of early education.	显然，改善早教供给的模式并不少。


Given the clear economic case for it – not to mention citizens’ demonstrated willingness to invest in it – the goal now must be to figure out what works and adapt it to different contexts.	早教具有显而易见的经济好处——更不用说公民高涨的早教投资意愿了——现在必须把目标定在找到有效方式并根据不同环境进行调整上。


An Earth Year	地球年


STOCKHOLM – On April 22, the world will mark the 45th anniversary of Earth Day, established in 1970 to draw attention to environmental challenges.	斯托克霍姆—4月22日，世界将迎来第45个地球日。 地球日设立于1970年，是为了引起人们对环境挑战的注意。


Never have those challenges been greater or more urgent than they are today.	如今，气候挑战比以往任何时候都要艰巨和紧迫。


The combination of climate change, erosion of biodiversity, and depletion of natural resources is propelling the planet toward a tipping point, beyond which objectives like sustainable development and poverty reduction will be more difficult than ever to achieve.	气候变化、生物多样性丧失和自然资源枯竭正在把地球推向临界点，越过了这个点，可持续发展和减贫等目标实现难度就将大大增加。


Since 1970, scientists have learned not only that human activity is the primary driver of environmental change on Earth, but also that it is pushing the planet beyond its natural limits.	1970年以来，科学家不但认识到人类活动是地球环境变化的主因，还认识到人类正在让地球超越其自然极限。


If we do not make big changes fast, the results could be devastating.	如果我们不迅速做出重大改变，结果将是灾难性的。


Global leaders seemed to recognize this when they agreed five years ago to limit global warming during this century to 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels – the threshold beyond which we risk triggering more devastating consequences of climate change.	五年前，全球领导人似乎认识到了这一点，他们同意将本世纪全球升温幅度限制在前工业化水平之上2℃以内——超过这与阈值，就有可能引发气候变化的灾难性后果。


But strong action to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions has not been taken.	但迄今仍未采取减少温室气体排放的强大动作。


On the contrary, emissions have increased markedly; as a consequence, last year was the hottest year on record.	相反，排放大幅增加； 结果是去年成为有记录以来最热的一年。


The world is now on track to deplete its remaining “budget” for CO2 emissions, which now amounts to less than one trillion tons, in just 25 years.	照目前趋势看，世界25年就会耗尽剩余的二氧化碳你排放“预算”。 目前这一预算还有不到一万亿吨。


The result would be catastrophic changes like unmanageable sea-level rises, devastating heat waves, and persistent droughts that create unprecedented challenges in terms of food security, ecosystems, health, and infrastructure.	结果将是灾难性变化，如不可遏制的海平面升高、灾难性热浪和持续旱灾，给粮食安全、生态系统、卫生和基础设施带来前所未有的挑战。


Unsurprisingly, the poorest and most vulnerable will be the hardest hit.	毫不奇怪，最贫困和最脆弱人群将受到最大的冲击。


We must change course.	我们必须改变这一局面。


This Earth Day should serve as a reminder – and, indeed, a catalyst – of what the world really needs: strong and sustained action.	今年的地球日应该成为提醒我们世界真正需要什么的警钟——事实上，也是催化剂。


Fortunately, 2015 may mark the beginning of just such a change for the better.	幸运的是，2015年也许标志着朝着更好方向变化的开端。


This year, world leaders will meet three times to chart a new path for our planet.	今年，世界领导人将进行三次会晤为地球制定新路径。


In July, they will meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, for the Conference on Financing for Development.	7月份，埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴将进行发展融资会议（Conference on Financing for Development）。


In September, they will convene to approve the Sustainable Development Goals, which will guide development efforts until 2030.	9月份，他们将开会批准指导2030年前发展政策的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals）。


And in December, they will head to Paris to negotiate a new global climate agreement.	12月，他们将在巴黎谈判新的全球气候协定。


The outcomes of these meetings will shape this generation’s legacy for both the natural environment and economic growth and development.	这些会议的结果将决定这一代人给自然环境和经济增长与发展留下什么遗产。


By decarbonizing the global economy and limiting climate change, world leaders can unleash a wave of innovation, support the emergence of new industries and jobs, and generate vast economic opportunities.	世界领导人可以通过让全球经济去碳化和限制气候变化开启新一波创新潮，支持新产业和就业机会的涌现，并形成巨大的经济机会。


It is up to all of us to encourage political leaders to do what is needed to secure such an outcome.	我们所有人都应该鼓励政治领导人做好确保这一结果所需要的事。


Just as we demand that our governments address risks associated with terrorism or epidemics, we should put concerted pressure on them to act now to preserve our natural environment and curb climate change.	正如我们要求我们的政府遏制与恐怖主义和传染病有关的风险，我们也应该共同向他们施压要求他们马上行动起来保护���们的自然环境、遏制气候变化。


Here, the scientific community has a special responsibility to share their research and its potential implications.	在这方面，科学界有着分享他们的研究以及潜在影响的特殊责任。 因此，我和其他16位地球联盟（Earth League）科学家提出了《地球宣言》（Earth Statement）。


That is why I and the 16 other scientists of the Earth League – representing world-leading academic institutions like the Potsdam Institute on Climate Impact Research, the Earth Institute, Tsinghua University, and the Stockholm Resilience Centre – have released the “Earth Statement,” which sets out the eight essential elements of a successful global climate deal, to be reached in Paris in December.	地球联盟包括了诸多世界领先学术机构，如波茨坦气候影响研究所（Potsdam Institute on Climate Impact Research）、地球研究所（Earth Institute）、清华大学、斯托克霍姆恢复力中心（Stockholm Resilience Centre）等。 《地球宣言》给出了12月巴黎会议所必须取得的、成功的全球气候协议的八大基本要素。


· First, the agreement must reinforce countries’ commitment to limit global warming to below 2°C.	·         首先，新气候协定必须强化各国关于全球升温幅度限制在2℃以下的承诺。


· Second, the agreement needs to recognize the remaining global budget for CO2 emissions.	·         其次，新气候协定需要承认剩余二氧化碳全球预算。


· Third, the agreement should lay the foundation for a fundamental transformation of the economy, with deep decarbonization beginning immediately, in order to create a zero-carbon society by around 2050.	·         第三，新气候协定应该为经济的根本转型打下基础，其中去碳化应该立刻开始，以实现在2050年左右建成零碳社会的目标。


· Fourth, all 196 countries in the United Nations Climate Convention must formulate an emissions pathway consistent with deep decarbonization, with richer countries taking the lead.	·         第四，联合国气候公约的196个缔约国必须制定于深度去碳化相符的排放路径，其中富裕国家应该起到领导作用。


· Fifth, countries must promote innovation in clean technologies and ensure universal access to existing technological solutions.	·         第五，各国必须促进清洁技术创新，确保所有人都能获得已有技术解决方案。


· Sixth, governments must agree to support adaptation to climate change and to address the loss and damage associated with it.	·         第六，政府必须同意支持适应气候变化，并承担与此相关的损失和伤害。


· Seventh, the agreement must include provisions to safeguard carbon sinks and vital ecosystems.	·         第七，新气候协定必须包括保护碳汇和关键生态系统的内容。


· Eighth, to help developing countries fight climate change, donors need to provide additional support at a level at least comparable to current global development aid.	·         第八，为了帮助发展中国家对抗气候变化，援助国需要提供至少与全球发展援助相当水平的新增支持。


The good news is that these eight objectives are realistic and achievable; indeed, some progress is already being made.	好消息是这八个目标具备现实性和可实现性； 事实上，我们已经开始取得一定的进步。


Last year, total CO2 emissions from the energy sector remained unchanged year on year for the first time (in the absence of an economic downturn).	去年，能源部门总二氧化碳排放量首次实现同比不增（在没有出现经济衰退的情况下）。


And recent reports show that emissions in China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, also did not increase from 2013 to 2014.	最新报告表明，世界第一大温室气体排放国中国的排放量在2013—2014年间没有增加。


The tide is turning.	潮流正在发生改变。


Decarbonization has already begun, and the appeal of a fossil-fuel-free world is growing – not only because it would limit climate change, but also because it would be more technologically advanced, democratic, resilient, healthy, and economically dynamic.	去碳化已经开始，无化石燃料世界的呼声日益高涨——不仅是因为这能够遏制气候变化，也因为这在技术上更加先进、更加民主、更有恢复力、更加健康、更有经济活力。


This is the right time to move fully onto a more sustainable, zero-carbon path.	开足马力转向更加可持续的零碳路径正逢其时。


With the right global deal, the world could finally do just that.	有了正确的全球协议，世界最终能够完成这一目标。


For the sake of the planet, and the people who depend on it, let us make 2015 Earth Year.	为了地球以及依赖地球的人类的命运，我们必须让2015年成为地球年。


Blinded by the Light	被灯光所蒙蔽


NEW YORK – On the evening of March 23, 1.3 billion people will go without light at 8:30, and at 9:30, and at 10:30, and for the rest of the night – just like every other night of the year.	纽约——3月23日夜晚，13亿人的灯光将在8：30、9：30和10：30熄灭——这和一年中的其他夜晚并没有什么不同。


With no access to electricity, darkness after sunset is a constant reality for these people.	在无电可用的情况下，这些人不得不在太阳落山后生活在黑暗之中。


On the same evening, another billion will participate in the environmental event “Earth Hour” by turning off their lights from 8:30-9:30.	同样在当晚，另外10亿人将从8：30-9：30关灯参加“地球一小时”的环保活动。


The organizers say that they are providing a way to demonstrate one’s desire to “do something” about global warming.	组织者表示他们提供了一种人们表达为全球变暖“做点什么”的愿望的方式。


But the stark reality is that Earth Hour teaches all the wrong lessons, and actually increases CO2 emissions.	但严峻的现实是“地球一小时”留给人一种错误的印象，并且由此产生的二氧化碳排放也有增无减。


It may inspire virtuous feelings, but its vain symbolism reveals exactly what is wrong with today’s feel-good environmentalism.	这项活动可能会激发人们的正义感，但这种徒劳的象征意义恰恰揭示了今天自我感觉良好的环保主义出问题的原因。


Earth Hour teaches us that tackling global warming is easy.	“地球一小时”告诉我们应对全球变暖轻而易举。


Yet, by switching off the lights, all we are doing is making it harder to see.	但熄灯产生的效果恐怕只是视物不清。


Notice that you have not been asked to switch off anything really inconvenient, like your heating or air conditioning, television, computer, mobile phone, or any of the myriad technologies that depend on affordable, plentiful energy electricity and make modern life possible.	请注意活动并没有要求您关闭任何确实不便的物品，比方说暖气或空调、电视、电脑、手机，或者依靠充足而便宜的电能赖以维系现代生活的形形色色的技术。


If switching off the lights for one hour per year really were beneficial, why would we not do it for the other 8,759?	如果每年熄灯一小时的确有益，那么剩下的8,759小时我们为什么不能坚持？


Hypothetically, switching off the lights for an hour would cut CO2 emissions from power plants around the world.	人们想当然地认为熄灯一小时会降低全球电厂的二氧化碳排放。


But, even if everyone in the entire world cut all residential lighting, and this translated entirely into CO2 reduction, it would be the equivalent of China pausing its CO2 emissions for less than four minutes.	但即使全球所有人关闭一切住宅照明，且节省的电能完全转化为二氧化碳减排，也不过相当于中国暂停二氧化碳排放不到四分钟。


In fact, Earth Hour will cause emissions to increase.	事实上，“地球一小时”将会增加二氧化碳排放。


As the United Kingdom’s National Grid operators have found, a small decline in electricity consumption does not translate into less energy being pumped into the grid, and therefore will not reduce emissions.	英国国家电网运营商已经发现小规模用电下降并没有导致入网电量降低，因此也不会反过来降低排放。


Moreover, during Earth Hour, any significant drop in electricity demand will entail a reduction in CO2 emissions during the hour, but it will be offset by the surge from firing up coal or gas stations to restore electricity supplies afterwards.	此外，“地球一小时”期间显著的电力需求下降将导致一小时内的二氧化碳排放降低，但之后燃煤或燃气电厂恢复供电时所造成的能耗激增将抵消降低的一切排放。


And the cozy candles that many participants will light, which seem so natural and environmentally friendly, are still fossil fuels – and almost 100 times less efficient than incandescent light bulbs.	而很多参与者将点亮温馨的蜡烛，虽然看上去是如此地自然环保，但蜡烛终归是化石燃料——而且其照明效率仅相当于白炽灯泡的不到百分之一。


Using one candle for each switched-off bulb cancels out even the theoretical CO2 reduction; using two candles means that you emit more CO2.	关一盏灯点亮一支蜡烛就会抵消理论上的二氧化碳减排； 而点亮两支蜡烛则意味着二氧化碳排放升高。


Electricity has given humanity huge benefits.	电力令人类受益巨大。


Almost three billion people still burn dung, twigs, and other traditional fuels indoors to cook and keep warm, generating noxious fumes that kill an estimated two million people each year, mostly women and children.	将近三十亿人仍靠在室内燃烧牛粪、树枝和其他传统燃料来做饭取暖，由此产生的有毒烟雾每年估计致死两百万人，其中多数是妇女和儿童。


Likewise, just a hundred years ago, the average American family spent six hours each week during cold months shoveling six tons of coal into the furnace (not to mention cleaning the coal dust from carpets, furniture, curtains, and bedclothes).	同样，短短一百年前，普通美国家庭每周花费6小时时间在寒冬腊月将6吨燃煤铲进炉灶（而这还不算清理地毯、家具、窗帘和被褥灰尘的时间）。


In the developed world today, electric stoves and heaters have banished indoor air pollution.	如今在发达国家，电炉和暖器已经让室内空气污染成为过去。


Similarly, electricity has allowed us to mechanize much of our world, ending most backbreaking work.	同样，电力实现了世界机械化，结束了绝大多数最繁重的劳动。


The washing machine liberated women from spending endless hours carrying water and beating clothing on scrub boards.	洗衣机将女性从倒水和在搓衣板上捶打衣物的无穷无尽的时间消耗中解放出来。


The refrigerator made it possible for almost everyone to eat more fruits and vegetables, and simply to stop eating rotten food, which is the main reason why the most prevalent cancer for men in the United States in 1930, stomach cancer, is the least prevalent now.	冰箱让几乎所有人能够吃到更多的蔬菜和水果，停止食用能够导致胃癌的变质食物，并让20世纪30年代曾经在美国最普遍的胃癌现在成为罹患比例最低的癌症。


Electricity has allowed us to irrigate fields and synthesize fertilizer from air.	电力让我们灌溉田地并从空气中合成肥料。


The light that it powers has enabled us to have active, productive lives past sunset.	它发出的光让我们在太阳落山后仍能维持积极、高效的生活。


The electricity that people in rich countries consume is, on average, equivalent to the energy of 56 servants helping them.	富国民众平均耗费的电能相当于雇佣56名佣人。


Even people in Sub-Saharan Africa have electricity equivalent to about three servants.	就连撒哈拉以南非洲民众消耗的电能也相当于雇请3位佣人协助劳动。


They need more of it, not less.	这些人的用电量不仅不应该减少，相反还应该进一步增加。


This is relevant not only for the world’s poor.	这不仅关系到世界贫困人口。


Because of rising energy prices from green subsidies, 800,000 German households can no longer pay their electricity bills.	因为能源价格中包含越来越高的绿色补贴，800,000个德国家庭已无力继续承担用电费用。


In the UK, there are now over five million fuel-poor people, and the country’s electricity regulator now publicly worries that environmental targets could lead to blackouts in less than nine months.	英国现在有超过五百万民众燃料短缺，该国的电力监管机构现在已公开对环境目标可能在不到九个月时间内导致停电而表示担忧。


Today, we produce only a small fraction of the energy that we need from solar and wind – 0.7% from wind and just 0.1% from solar.	今天，太阳能和风能仅能满足我们一小部分能源需求——风能仅占总需求的0. 7%，而太阳能仅占0.


These technologies currently are too expensive.	1%。 这两项技术目前都成本过高。


They are also unreliable (we still have no idea what to do when the wind is not blowing).	而且相关技术也并不可靠（不刮风的时候怎么办我们还不知道）。


Even with optimistic assumptions, the International Energy Agency estimates that, by 2035, we will produce just 2.4% of our energy from wind and 0.8% from solar.	即便应用乐观的假设，国际能源机构预计到2035年风能将占能源总量的2. 4%，而太阳能仅占0.


To green the world’s energy, we should abandon the old-fashioned policy of subsidizing unreliable solar and wind – a policy that has failed for 20 years, and that will fail for the next 22.	要想实现绿色能源目标我们必须放弃对不靠谱的太阳能和风能的过时补贴政策，这项政策失败了20年，再过22年仍然不会成功。


Instead, we should focus on inventing new, more efficient green technologies to outcompete fossil fuels.	相反，我们应该着重创造更有效的全新绿色技术，以期替代化石燃料。


If we really want a sustainable future for all of humanity and our planet, we shouldn’t plunge ourselves back into darkness.	如果当真希望为人类和地球创造可持续的未来，我们就不应该重新投身到黑暗之中。


Tackling climate change by turning off the lights and eating dinner by candlelight smacks of the “let them eat cake” approach to the world’s problems that appeals only to well-electrified, comfortable elites.	用关灯享受烛光晚餐的做法应对气候变化有点“让他们吃蛋糕”的味道，仅仅适用于供电充足、生活舒适的精英人群。


Focusing on green R&D might not feel as good as participating in a global gabfest with flashlights and good intentions, but it is a much brighter idea.	关注绿色能源的研发工作或许不像参与由手电和善意组成的全球聚会那样感觉惬意，但这个办法相比之下却要明智得多。


East Asia\u0027s Historical Shackles	东亚的历史桎梏


TOKYO – Diplomatic relationships in East Asia have long been held hostage by history.	东京—东亚外交关系长期被历史绑架。


But the region’s “history problem” has been intensifying lately, with growing nationalism among major actors like China, Japan, and South Korea fueling disputes over everything from territory and natural resources to war memorials and textbooks.	但该地区的“历史问题”最近有升级之势，中国、日本和韩国等主要行动方日益增加的民族主义情绪助长了包括从领土和自然资源到战争纪念和教科书在内的一切争议。


Can East Asian countries overcome their legacy of conflict to forge a common future that benefits all?	东亚国家能够克服冲突的历史遗留问题、构建多赢的共同未来吗？


Consider the relationship between America’s closest East Asian allies, Japan and South Korea.	以美国最紧密的两大东亚盟国——日本和韩国为例。


Though historical disagreements have long hampered bilateral ties, the increasingly nationalistic stance of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Park Geun-hye has aggravated festering tensions.	尽管历史分歧长期阻碍着双边关系，但日本首相安倍晋三和韩国总统朴槿惠越来越偏向民族主义的立场进一步恶化了严重对立之势。


If they fail to work together to stem the revival of bitter historical disputes, their relationship will remain frozen, playing into China’s hands.	如果他们不能合作抵制令人痛苦的历史纠纷的复燃，两国关系就会陷入冰点，让中国从中获利。


And nobody plays the history card with quite as much relish as China, where President Xi Jinping is also relying on nationalism to legitimize his rule.	而在历史问题上最长袖善舞的莫过于中国，中国国家主席习近平也要依靠民族主义让执政合法化。


Last year, China introduced two new national memorial days to commemorate China’s long battle against Japanese aggression in World War II: “War against Japanese Aggression Victory Day” on September 3 and “Nanjing Massacre Day” on December 13.	今年早些时候，中国新规定了两个全国纪念日以纪念漫长的抗日战争：9月3日为“抗日战争胜利纪念日”； 12月13日为“南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭日”。


What would happen if countries like Vietnam and India dedicated days to remembering China’s aggression toward them since 1949?	如果越南和印度也规定某日为1949年后中国入侵两国的纪念日会如何？


By reinforcing negative stereotypes of rival countries, such squabbles over history and remembrance sow fragmentation and instability, and have certainly fueled the region’s recent territorial disputes.	这些关于历史和回忆的口角强化了敌对国家的消极刻板印象，也是分裂和动荡的温床，它们显然助长了东亚地区最近的领土纠纷。


Indeed, the politicization of history remains the principal obstacle to reconciliation in East Asia.	事实上，历史的政治化仍是东亚妥协的主要障碍。


Repeated attempts to rewrite history – sometimes literally, through textbook revisions – along nationalist lines make it nearly impossible to establish regional institutions.	一再试图按照民族主义情绪重写历史——有时是通过教科书修订进行书面改写——导致成立地区机构成为几乎不可能的任务。


This should not be the case.	绝不应该如此。


Japan and South Korea, for example, are vibrant democracies and export-oriented economic powerhouses, with traditionally close cultural ties and many shared values.	比如，日本和韩国都是生气勃勃的民主国家、强大的出口导向型经济体，拥有紧密的传统文化联系和大量共同价值观。


In other words, they are ideal candidates for collaboration.	换句话说，它们是彼此理想的合作对象。


US President Barack Obama recognizes this potential, and has promoted increased strategic cooperation between South Korea and Japan in order to underpin a stronger trilateral security alliance with the US that can balance a rising China.	美国总统奥巴马认识到这一潜力，也在促进韩国和日本之间的战略合作以构建更强大的中日韩三边安全联盟，制衡中国的崛起。


But Japan and South Korea refuse to let go of history.	但日本和韩国都不愿放下历史包袱。


To be sure, there is some truth to South Korea’s accusation that Japan is denying some of its past behavior.	平心而论，韩国指责日本否认某些过去的行径并非无端指责。


But it is also true that Park – who has refused to meet formally with Abe until he addresses lingering issues over Japan’s annexation of Korea – has used history to pander to domestic nationalist sentiment.	但朴槿惠用历史迎合国内民族主义情绪也是事实。 她一直拒绝与安倍进行正式会晤，除非安倍就日本吞并韩国的历史问题作出表态。


Indeed, adopting a hardline stance has enabled her to whitewash some inconvenient family history: Her father, the dictator Park Chung-hee, collaborated with the Japanese military while Korea was under colonial rule.	事实上，采取强硬立场让她得以在某种程度上粉饰她自己的家族史：在日本殖民统治时期，她的父亲朴成焕曾与日军有过合作。


Abe, too, has stoked tensions, particularly by visiting Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine – a controversial memorial that honors, among others, Class A war criminals from World War II.	安倍也在给紧张局面火上浇油，特别是其惨败靖国神社的举动。 靖国神社因为供奉二战甲级战犯牌位而饱受争议。


Though Abe visited the shrine only once – in December 2013 – he felt compelled to do so in response to China’s unilateral declaration of an air-defense identification zone, covering territories that it claims but does not control.	尽管安倍只参拜过一次靖国神社（2013年12月），但由于中国单方��宣布建立包括其主张但为控制地区的防空识别区，安倍感到必须以参拜靖国神社的方式作出回应。


Of course, the divergences between Japanese and South Korean historical narratives go back further than WWII.	当然，日本与韩国历史表述之间的分歧可以追溯到二战之前。


More than a century ago, the Korean activist Ahn Jung-geun assassinated Japan’s first prime minister, Hirobumi Ito, at the railway station in the Chinese city of Harbin, cementing Ahn’s status as a hero in Korea and a terrorist in Japan.	一个多世纪前，朝鲜活动家安重根在中国的哈尔滨火车站刺杀了日本首相伊藤博文。 在韩国，安重根是民族英雄，而在日本，他是恐怖分子。


Ito’s image can be seen on Japan’s 1,000-yen note; Ahn has appeared on a 200-won postage stamp in South Korea.	伊藤博文的头像印在1,000日元钞票上，而安重根的形象也上了  200韩元的邮票。


Last year, Park asked Xi to honor Ahn.	去年，朴槿惠要求习近平纪念安重根。


Xi seized the opportunity to drive a wedge between America’s two main Asian allies, and built a memorial to Ahn.	习近平抓住机会离间美国的两大主要亚洲盟友，并未安重根树立纪念碑。


Japan responded by blasting China for glorifying a terrorist and propagating a “one-sided” view of history – a move that, Japan asserted, was “not conducive to building peace and stability.”	日本的反应是抨击中国美化恐怖分子、宣传“片面”的历史观——日本表示，这一举动“不利于构建和平与稳定”。


Such conflicts have a clear catalyst: Asia’s rising prosperity.	这一冲突存在一个显而易见的催化剂：亚洲的不断繁荣。


As their economies have expanded, Asian countries have gained the confidence to construct and exalt a new past, in which they either downplay their own aggressions or highlight their steadfastness in the face of brutal victimization.	随着经济的扩张，亚洲国家有了构建和拔高新历史的信心，它们要么淡化自身的侵略行为，要么抬高它们面对残酷牺牲时的坚定不移。


All countries’ legitimizing narratives blend historical fact and myth.	所有国家的合法化表述都在扭曲历史事实和传说。


But, in some cases, historical legacies can gain excessive influence, overwhelming leaders’ capacity to make rational policy choices.	但是，在某些例子中，历史遗留问题影响力过大，超越了领导人做出理性政策选择的能力。


That explains why Park has sought closer ties with China, even though South Korea’s natural regional partner is democratic Japan.	这可以解释为何朴槿惠寻求与中国构建更紧密的关系，即使韩国的天然地区合作伙伴是民主的日本。


One source of hope stems from Abe’s landslide victory in the recent snap general election, which gives him the political capital to reach out to Park with a grand bargain: If Japan expresses remorse more clearly for its militaristic past, South Korea will agree to leave historical grievances out of official policy.	一个希望之源是安倍在最近的提前大选中大获全胜，这给了他政治资本向朴槿惠抛出绣球：如果日本以更加明确的态度就其军国主义历史表示忏悔，韩国也应该同意将历史恩怨排除在官方政策之外。


Japan and South Korea cannot change the past.	日本和韩国无法改变历史。


But they can strive to shape a more cooperative future.	但他们可以致力于构建更加合作的未来。


As a Russian proverb succinctly puts it, “Forget the past and lose an eye; dwell on the past and lose both eyes.”	一句俄罗斯谚语说得好：“忘记历史等于戳瞎一只眼睛； 迷失于历史等于戳瞎双目。


The Asian Sleepwalkers	亚洲梦游者


SEOUL – Whether East Asia’s politicians and pundits like it or not, the region’s current international relations are more akin to nineteenth-century European balance-of-power politics than to the stable Europe of today.	首尔—不管东亚政治家和专家学者是否喜欢，该地区最近的国际关系与19世纪欧洲的实力平衡政治，而不是与当下欧洲的稳定状态更为相似。


Witness East Asia’s rising nationalism, territorial disputes, and lack of effective institutional mechanisms for security cooperation.	东亚民族主义和领土纠纷正在升级，同时也缺少有效的制度性机制促成安全合作。


While economic interdependence among China, Japan, South Korea, and the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations continues to deepen, their diplomatic relations are as burdened by rivalry and mistrust as relations among European countries were in the decades prior to World War I.	尽管中国、日本、韩国和东盟国家的经济联系仍在不断加深，但它们的外交关系充满了敌意和怀疑，一如一战前数十年间欧洲各国。


One common characteristic, then and now, is a power shift.	彼时和今日的一大共同点是实力变迁。


Back then, Great Britain’s relative power was in decline, while Germany’s had been rising since German unification in 1871.	彼时，英国的相对实力在衰落，而德国自1871年统一后开始崛起。


Similarly, at least in terms of economic, if not military, capability, the United States and Japan seem to have begun a process of decline relative to China.	类似地，至少在经济实力上（军事姑且不论），美国和日本似乎已经开始了相对中国的衰落过程。


Of course, this process is not irreversible: Effective political leadership and successful domestic reforms in the US and Japan, together with China’s failure to manage political pressure from below, could yet halt this seemingly inexorable power shift.	当然，这一过程并不是不可逆的。 若美国和日本能出现有效的政治领导和成功的民主改革，而中国不能有效管理自下而上的政治压力，则有可能中止这一看似势不可挡的实力变迁之势。


Major power shifts define eras in which key political leaders are likely to make serious foreign-policy mistakes.	实力大变迁往往是关键政治领导人可能做出严重外交政策错误决定的时期。


Indeed, poor management of international relations at such critical junctures has often led to major wars.	事实上，在这个当口出现拙劣的国际关系处理通常会导致大战。


Rising powers tend to demand a greater role in international politics, declining powers tend to be reluctant to adjust, and key policymakers are likely to misunderstand the intentions of other countries’ leaders and overreact to their actions.	崛起势力总是要求在国际政治中拥有更重要的地位，而衰落势力总是拒绝调整，关键决策者可能误解其他国家领导人的意图，对后者的行为作出过度反应。


Historically, rising powers tend to become too confident too soon, leading them to behave imprudently, which frightens their neighbors.	从历史上看，崛起势力总是太过自信，操之过急，从而导致鲁莽行事，引起邻国担忧。


For example, Kaiser Wilhelm II dismissed Otto von Bismarck as chancellor in 1890, less than 20 years after the formation of the Second Reich, and began to destroy Bismarck’s carefully crafted alliance network.	比如，1890年，德皇威廉二世撤去俾斯麦总理之职，并开始破坏俾斯麦精心打造的同盟网，而此时第二帝国形成不过20年。


His rough diplomacy frightened France, Britain, and Russia, making it easier for them to unite against Germany.	他的强硬外交令法国、英国和俄国大惊失色，轻易地使它们形成了反德同盟。


China’s new diplomatic assertiveness in 2010 – closely following the eruption of the worst financial crisis since the 1930’s – recalled that of Wilhelmine Germany.	2010年，中国显示出新的外交自信——紧随20世纪30年代以来最严重的金融危机出现——这让人们想起了威廉二世的德国。


In both cases, insecurity resulted not from an external threat, but from top policymakers’ own actions.	在这两个例子中，不安全并非来自外部威胁，而来自最高决策者自身的行为。


In late 2010, I was relieved – somewhat – when a key Chinese leader, State Councilor Dai Bingguo, announced that China would adhere to the path of peaceful development.	2010年末，中国高级领导人、国务委员戴秉国宣称中国将坚持和平发展道路，这令我长舒一口气。


But the rhetoric of some Chinese, particularly in the military, concerning the South China Sea and other disputed Chinese sovereignty claims suggests that not everyone in the country’s leadership is committed wholeheartedly to such a path.	但某些中国官员——特别是军方人士——对南海和其他争议中国主权主张的说法表明，并非所有中国领导人都会全心全意坚持这条道路。


The extent to which policymaking by the country’s new leader, Xi Jinping, takes into account the insecurity felt by China’s neighbors – and abandons a quest for absolute security for China – will be one of the key variables influencing East Asia’s security environment in the years ahead.	中国新领导人习近平在确定决策时会在多大程度上考虑邻国带来的不安全因素——并放弃中国绝对安全的要求——将是未来数年中影响东亚安全环境的一大关键变数。


America’s foreign policy will be another key factor.	美国的外交政策是另一个关键因素。


If the US pursues a predominantly confrontational approach, East Asian politics will inevitably become polarized, just as multipolar nineteenth-century Europe gave way to an increasingly bipolar order in lockstep with rising tensions between Germany and Britain.	如果美国采取的主要是对抗的态度，那么东亚政坛将免不了出现极化，一如19世纪的多极欧洲随着德国和英国的剑拔弩张而步入两极秩序。


America’s so-called “pivot to Asia” might have been necessary from its point of view, given the concerns of its Asian allies about China.	照此看来，美国的所谓“亚洲支点”可能是不要的，因为它担心其亚洲盟友对中国的态度。


But, unless the US wants a Cold War-style confrontation in Asia, it must try harder to engage China in shaping a viable regional security structure.	但是，除非美国想让亚洲回到冷战时期的对峙状态，否则它必须更加致力于将中国纳入可行的地区安全结构内。


A confrontational US approach toward China, moreover, would imply an additional destabilizing factor: Japan might become much bolder than necessary in its foreign policy.	此外，美国对中国采取对抗态度还会带来一个新的不稳定因素：日本可能会在外交政策上过于激进。


After Wilhelm II stopped engaging Russia in the 1890’s, bilateral relations worsened, which provided his ally, Austria, diplomatic carte blanche in dealing with Serbia – and, more important, Serbia’s Russian patron.	19世纪90年代，德皇二世停止与俄国的互动后，双边关系开始恶化，德国的盟国奥地利获得了处理塞尔维亚——以及更重要的塞尔维亚的俄国保护人——事务的外交全权委托。


Thus, Wilhelm unintentionally contributed to the outbreak of war in 1914.	德皇二世就这样在无意中为1914年大战爆发做出了贡献。


There are already some worrying signs of a Japanese miscalculation.	日本的失误迹象已有所显示。


Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, reportedly said that he is considering renouncing the Kono Statement of 1993, which acknowledged that the Japanese military had raped and enslaved Asian and European women during World War II.	据报道，日本新首相安倍晋三声称正在考虑否认日军在二战期间强奸和奴役亚洲和欧洲妇女的1993年“河野谈话”。


If Abe does so, Japan’s relations with South Korea and China will suffer serious damage.	如果安倍晋三真的这么做了，那么日本与韩国和中国的关系将急转直下。


That is in no one’s interest, including Japan’s, given that the Japanese share many security concerns with South Korea.	这不符合任何人的利益，包括日本在内，因为日本与韩国存在大量的共同安全问题。


So US diplomacy will need to be dexterous.	因此，美国必须拿出巧妙的外交手段。


It must ease Japan’s sense of insecurity in the wake of China’s rise, while persuading Japan’s new leaders to behave prudently and refrain from excessively nationalist behavior.	它必须减轻中国崛起给日本带来的安全忧虑，同时也要说服日本新领导人谨慎行动，不要做出出格的民族主义行为。


Frankly, with two decades of economic stagnation already behind it, Japan has more important matters to pursue.	坦白说，在经历了二十年的经济停滞后，日本有更重要的事情值得优先考虑。


In contrast to its multilateral efforts in Europe, the US created a hub-and-spoke security framework – formed by US-centered bilateral alliances – in Asia following WWII.	与在欧洲的多边努力不同，二战结束后美国在亚洲建立了中心辐射型安全框架——以美国为中心的双边盟友关系。


One result is that no direct channel for security cooperation among Asian countries was ever established, which has contributed to the low level of trust in East Asia, even among close US allies like Japan and South Korea.	由此带来的一个结果是亚洲国家之间从未建立过直接的安全合作渠道，而这又导致了东亚国家之间缺乏信任，即使是同为美国盟友的日本和韩国。


And it is precisely here that South Korea, a medium-sized ally of the US, will be in a better position than Northeast Asia’s bigger powers to act as a facilitator.	这也是作为美国中等规模盟友的韩国比东北亚其他更大的国家更适合担任促进器的原因。


There is much to learn from the diplomatic failures that led to WWI.	导致一战的外交失策给了我们许多教训。


A new history, by Christopher Clark, of the diplomatic prelude to that war is called, fittingly, The Sleepwalkers.	克里斯托弗·克拉克（Christopher Clark）在讲述一战前外交形势的新历史著作中将其妙称为《梦游者》（The Sleepwalkers）。


The question for the US and East Asia’s leaders today is whether they will wake up and develop effective multilateral mechanisms for security cooperation before doing themselves serious harm.	如今，美国和东亚领导人面临的问题是他们能不能在给自己造成严重伤害之前觉醒并找到有效的安全合作多边机制。


East Asia’s Nationalist Fantasy Islands	东亚民族主义者的梦想岛


TOKYO – They don’t look like much, those few uninhabited rocks in the East China Sea between Okinawa and Taiwan, and a couple of tiny islets in the Sea of Japan, inhabited by a few token fishermen and some South Korean Coast Guard officials.	发自东京——中国东海上那几个位于日本冲绳和台湾之间的无人岩礁，还有日本海上的几个小岛——上面象征性地居住着一些渔民和若干韩国海岸警卫队官员——看起来并无太多相似之处。


The former, called the Senkaku Islands in Japan, and the Diaoyu Islands in China, are claimed by China, Japan, and Taiwan; the latter, called Takeshima in Japan, and Dokdo in Korea, are claimed by South Korea and Japan.	前者——日本称之为尖阁列岛，中国称之为钓鱼岛——同时被中国，日本和台湾宣称对其拥有主权； 而后者——日本称之为竹岛，韩国称之为独岛——的主权则被韩国和日本两家争持不下。


These tiny outcroppings have little material value, and yet the dispute over their ownership has led to a major international dustup.	这些微型岛屿没有什么物质价值，但由其所有权导致的纠纷已经引发了国际争端。


Ambassadors have been recalled.	各国大使都被召回。


Massive anti-Japanese demonstrations have been held all over China, causing damage to Japanese people and properties.	中国到处都有反日示威活动——这些示威活动给日本人及其财产带来了损害。


Threats fly back and forth between Tokyo and Seoul. There has even been talk of military action.	东京和首尔之间不断相互威胁，甚至扬言要采取军事行动。


The historical facts actually appear quite simple.	但历史的真相其实相当简单。


Japan grabbed the islands as part of its empire-building project after the Sino-Japanese war in 1895 and the annexation of Korea in 1905.	在中日甲午战争（1895）和吞并朝鲜（1905）之后，日本把这些岛屿据为已有——并视之为帝国扩张大业的一部分。


Prior sovereignty is unclear; there were fishermen from Japan in Takeshima/Dokdo, and some awareness of the Senkaku/Diaoyu in imperial China.	而在此之前这些岛屿的主权归属并不清晰：竹岛/独岛上住着一些日本渔夫； 当时的中华帝国对尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛只有一点模糊的概念。


But no formal claims were made by any state.	没有一个国家对这些岛屿有过正式的主权声明。


Things became more complicated after World War II.	二战后事情就得更加复杂了。


Japan was supposed to return its colonial possessions, but the United States took over the Senkaku Islands along with Okinawa, before returning both to Japan in 1972.	日本本应把殖民地物归原主，但美国把冲绳连带着钓鱼岛一起接管了过来，又在1972年把这两者移交给日本。


The Koreans, still enraged at Japan for almost a half-century of colonization, took the Dokdo islands without worrying about the move’s legality.	而遭受了近半世纪殖民统治的韩国人仍对日本怀恨在心，他们强行占据了独岛，根本不管此举是否合法。


Given the brutality of the Japanese occupations of Korea and China, one is naturally inclined to sympathize with Japan’s former victims.	鉴于之前日本对朝鲜和中国残暴的侵略史，人们会很自然地倾向于同情这些曾经的受害国。


The fiery emotions inspired by this dispute – some Koreans even mutilated themselves in protest against Japan – suggest that the wounds of the Japanese war in Asia are still fresh.	这个纠纷所激起了激烈情绪——一些韩国人甚至在反日示威中做出自残行为——这表明了日本侵略战争对亚洲造成的创伤依然还在流血。


Indeed, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has used the occasion to demand a formal apology for the war from the Japanese emperor, and financial compensation for Korean women who were forced to serve Japanese soldiers in military brothels during the war.	韩国总统李明博甚至借这一事件要求日本天皇为侵略战争正式道歉，并对在战争期间被迫做慰安妇的韩国妇女作出经济补偿。


Unfortunately, the Japanese government, despite much circumstantial and even documentary evidence supplied by Japanese historians, now chooses to deny the wartime regime’s responsibility for this ghastly project.	但不幸地是，尽管日本历史学家提供了极为详尽的（甚至是档案）证据，日本政府依然拒绝承认日本战时政权对这个恐怖计划应负的责任。


Not surprisingly, that stance has further inflamed Korean emotions.	毫无疑问，这个立场进一步激怒了韩国人。


And yet it would be too simple to ascribe the current dispute entirely to the open wounds of the last world war.	然而如果把当前的纠纷完全归咎于上一次世界大战遗留的创伤，那就未免太过简单了。


Nationalist feelings, deliberately stirred up in China, Korea, and Japan, are linked to recent history, to be sure, but the politics behind them is different in each country.	这些故意在中国，韩国和日本国内煽动起来的民族主义情绪无可否认都和近代历史有关联，但背后的政治目的在各国都是迥异的。


Since the press in all three countries is almost autistic in its refusal to reflect anything but the “national” point of view, these politics are never properly explained.	由于这三国的媒体都几乎是自闭的——除了“国家”观点之外一切都视而不见——这些政治目的也就从未被适当地阐述过。


The Communist government in China can no longer derive any legitimacy from Marxist, let alone Maoist, ideology.	中国共产党政府已��无法从马克思主义意识形态中获得合法性，更不用说毛泽东主义。


China is an authoritarian capitalist country, open for business with other capitalist countries (including deep economic relations with Japan).	中国是一个独裁的资本主义国家，与其他资本主义国家经济互通（其中包括与日本的深厚经济联系）。


Since the 1990’s, therefore, nationalism has replaced Communism as the justification for the one-party state, which requires stirring up anti-Western – above all, anti-Japanese – sentiment.	因此自1990年以来，民族主义就已经取代共产主义成为被用来维护一党制国家政权的工具，这就需要煽动反西方情绪——尤其是反日情绪。


This is never difficult in China, given the painful past, and it usefully deflects public attention from the failings and frustrations of living in a dictatorship.	考虑到该国苦难的过去，要在中国唤起民族主义情绪并不难，这也有效地把公众的注意力从在独裁统治下生活的挫败感与沮丧中转移出去。


In South Korea, one of the most painful legacies of the Japanese colonial period stems from the Korean elite’s widespread collaboration at the time.	在韩国，日本殖民期间留下的最苦痛遗产之一来自于当时朝鲜精英们的大规模通敌行径。


Their offspring still play an important part in conservative politics in the country, which is why Korean leftists periodically call for purges and retribution.	他们的后代仍然在这个国家的保守派政治上发挥着重要作用，这也就是韩国左翼分子为何每隔一段时间就会呼吁肃清和算旧账的原因。


President Lee is a conservative, and relatively pro-Japanese.	李明博是一个相对亲日的保守派。


As a result, the Japanese view his recent demands for apologies, money, and recognition of Korean sovereignty over the islands in the Sea of Japan as a kind of betrayal.	因此，日本视李明博近期的行为——要求日本对战争进行道歉，对被迫做慰安妇的朝鲜妇女进行经济补偿，以及要求日本承认韩国对日本海洋面各岛屿的所有权——为一种背叛。


But, precisely because Lee is regarded as a pro-Japanese conservative, he needs to burnish his nationalist credentials.	然而恰恰因为被认为是一个亲日的保守派，李明博才更需要打造一副民族主义者的光鲜面孔。


He cannot afford to be tainted with collaboration.	他无法承受通敌的污名。


His political opponents are not the Japanese, but the Korean left.	他的政敌并不是日本人，而是韩国的左翼。


The use of the war to stoke anti-Japanese feelings in China and Korea is annoying to the Japanese, and triggers defensive reactions.	中国和韩国利用过去的战争来煽动反日情绪的行为让日本人很厌烦，并引发了他们防御性反应。


But Japanese nationalism is also fed by anxieties and frustrations – specifically, fear of rising Chinese power and Japan’s total dependency on the US for its national security.	但日本的民族主义者也饱受焦虑和挫败的煎熬——准确地说，他们害怕正在崛起的中国以及日本在国家安全上对美国的完全依赖。


Japanese conservatives view their country’s post-war pacifist constitution, written by Americans in 1946, as a humiliating assault on Japanese sovereignty.	日本保守派把战后的和平宪法——由美国人于1946年撰写——视为对日本主权的羞辱。


Now that China is testing its growing power by claiming territories, not just in the East China Sea, but also in the South China Sea, Japanese nationalists insist that Japan must act as a big power, and be seen as a serious player, fully prepared to defend its sovereignty, even over a few insignificant rocks.	由于中国通过在东海和南海提出领土主权声明来测试其不断增强的国力，日本的民族主义者坚持认为日本必须像一个大国那样回应，应当被视作一个严肃的对手，做好保卫主权——甚至是保卫一些无关重要的石头——的准备。


China, Korea, and Japan, whose economic interests are closely entwined, have every reason to avoid a serious conflict.	中国，韩国和日本这三个经济利益紧密交织在一起的国家有足够的理由去避免在彼此之间爆发严重冲突。


And yet all three are doing their best to bring one about.	然而这三个国家如今却在竭尽全力地制造冲突。


For entirely domestic reasons, each country is manipulating the history of a devastating war, triggering passions that can only cause more damage.	完全是出于国内因素，每个国家都在对那段灾难性战争的历史肆意修改，激发那些只能带来更多伤害的民族主义情绪。


Politicians, commentators, activists, and journalists in each country are talking endlessly about the past.	政治家，时事评论员，社会运动分子和记者都在无休止地谈论过去。


But they are manipulating memories for political ends.	但他们只不过是为了政治目的去操纵人们的回忆。


The last thing that interests any of them is the truth.	而这些人最不感兴趣的东西，就是真相。


Eastern Europe’s Crisis of Shame	东欧的耻之危机


BERLIN – As thousands of refugees pour into Europe to escape the horrors of war, with many dying along the way, a different sort of tragedy has played out in many of the European Union’s newest member states.	柏林—成千上万难民正在涌入欧洲逃避战争恐怖，许多人在逃难途中丧命，许多新晋欧盟成员国正在上演别样的悲剧。


The states known collectively as “Eastern Europe,” including my native Poland, have revealed themselves to be intolerant, illiberal, xenophobic, and incapable of remembering the spirit of solidarity that carried them to freedom a quarter-century ago.	这些国家被一起称为“东欧”，包括我的祖国波兰，它们表现出偏隘、吝啬、排外，忘却了四分之一世纪前给它们带来自由的团结精神。


These are the same societies that clamored before and after the fall of communism for a “return to Europe,” proudly proclaiming that they shared its values.	这些国家在共产主义倒台前后大声要求“回归欧洲”，自豪地宣称它们与欧洲有着共同价值。


But what did they think Europe stands for?	但它们心中的欧洲是怎样的？


Since 1989 – and particularly since 2004, when they joined the EU – they have benefited from massive financial transfers in the form of European structural and cohesion funds.	1989年以来——特别是2004年它们加入欧盟以后——它们从欧洲结构和凝聚力基金等大规模金融转移支付中获益良多。


Today, they are unwilling to contribute anything to resolve the greatest refugee crisis facing Europe since World War II.	如今，它们不愿意拿出一分一厘去解决二战以来欧洲所面临的最大的难民危机。


Indeed, before the eyes of the entire world, the government of Hungary, an EU member state, has mistreated thousands of refugees.	事实上，在全世界的眼皮底下，欧盟成员国匈牙利虐待了成千上万难民。


Prime Minister Viktor Orbán sees no reason to behave otherwise: the refugees are not a European problem, he insists; they are a German problem.	匈牙利总理奥班认为就应该这样做：难民不是欧洲问题，他坚持认为； 而是德国问题。


Orbán is not alone in this view.	在这个问题上，奥班不是一个人在战斗。


Even Hungary’s Catholic bishops are following Orbán’s line, with Laszlo Kiss-Rigo, Bishop of Szeged-Csanad, saying that Muslim migrants “want to take over,” and that the Pope, who has called on every Catholic parish in Europe to take in a refugee family, “doesn’t know the situation.”	匈牙利天主教会也站在奥班一边，Szeged-Csanad主教Laszlo Kiss-Rigo说，穆斯林移民“想要占领”，而呼吁欧洲每个天主教区收留一户难民家庭的教皇“根本不了解情况”。


In Poland, a country of 40 million people, the government initially expressed a readiness to accept 2,000 refugees – but only Christians (Slovakia proposed a similar stipulation).	在拥有4,000万人口的波兰，政府最初表示准备接受2,000难民——但只限基督教徒（斯洛伐克也提出了类似的方案）。


Refugees are not an Eastern European problem, a Polish journalist told National Public Radio in the United States, because these countries did not participate in the decision to bomb Libya (neither did Germany).	难民不是东欧问题，一位波兰记者对美国国家公共电台（National Public Radio）说，因为这些国家并没有参与轰炸利比亚的决策（德国也没有）。


Have Eastern Europeans no sense of shame?	东欧人难道不知耻吗？


For centuries, their ancestors emigrated in droves, seeking relief from material hardships and political persecution.	几个世纪以来，他们的祖先成群结队地迁徙，寻求庇护以躲避艰难困苦和政治迫害。


And today their leaders’ heartless behavior and callous rhetoric play to popular sentiment.	而如今，他们的领导人的冷漠行为和麻木言辞是在迎合公众情绪。


Indeed, the electronic version of Poland’s largest newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, now publishes a stunning notice at the end of every article about refugees: “Because of the extraordinarily aggressive content of remarks advocating violence, contrary to the law, and calling for racial, ethnic, and religious hatred, we will not allow readers to publish comments.”	事实上，波兰最大报纸《选举报》（Gazeta Wyborcza）电子版如今在每一篇关于难民的文章末尾都会添上醒目标注：“由于评论中出现宣扬暴力的极其激进的内容，有违于法律并且宣传种族、民族和宗教仇恨，因此我们不允许读者发布评论。 ”


Not so long ago, in the immediate postwar years, Eastern European Jewish Holocaust survivors fled from the murderous anti-Semitism of their Polish, Hungarian, Slovak, or Romanian neighbors to the safety of displaced persons camps in, of all places, Germany.	不久前，在二战刚刚结束时，东欧犹太大屠杀幸存者逃离他们所在波兰、匈牙利、斯洛伐克和罗马尼亚社区的凶残的反犹主义，来到德国各地的难民营。


“Safe Among the Germans” proclaimed the title of an important book by the historian Ruth Gay about these 250,000 survivors.	历史学家鲁斯·盖伊（Ruth Gay）写过一本名为《在德国人中间寻找安全》（Safe Among the Germans）的重要著作，描写的就是这250,000名幸存者。


Now Muslim refugees and survivors of other wars, having found no refuge in Eastern Europe, also are fleeing to safety among the Germans.	如今，穆斯林难民和其他战争的幸存者在东欧难觅避难所，也逃往德国人中间寻找安全。


In this case, history is not a metaphor.	在这个例子中，历史不是隐喻。


On the contrary, the root cause of the Eastern European attitudes now on grim display is to be found in World War II and its aftermath.	相反，如今东欧的残酷态度的根源可以追溯到二战及其后果。


Consider the Poles, who, deservedly proud of their society’s anti-Nazi resistance, actually killed more Jews than Germans during the war.	以波兰人为例。 他们理所当然地位波兰社会的反纳粹斗争而骄傲，但在二战中，他们杀害的犹太人比他们杀死的德国人还要多。


Although Poland’s Catholics were cruelly victimized during the Nazi occupation, they could find little compassion for the fate of Nazism’s ultimate victims.	尽管波兰天主教会在纳粹占领期间遭到了残酷迫害，但他们对纳粹主义的最终受害者的命运漠不关心。


In the words of Józef Mackiewicz, a conservative, anti-Communist Polish writer with impeccable patriotic credentials: “During the occupation there was not, literally, a single person who would not have heard the saying – ‘One thing Hitler has done correctly is to wipe out the Jews.’	用在爱国情操方面绝无瑕疵的波兰保守派反共作家Józef Mackiewicz的话说：“在占领期间，实际上没有一个人不曾听说过这样的说法——‘清洗犹太人这件事希特勒做对了。


But one should not talk about this openly.”	’但你不应该公开这样说。 ”


Of course, there were Poles who helped Jews during the war.	当然，有些波兰人在战时帮助过犹太人。


Indeed, the number of Polish “Righteous Among Nations,” recognized by Israel’s Yad Vashem for their wartime heroism, is the largest among all European countries (unsurprisingly, given that prewar Poland had Europe’s largest Jewish population by far).	事实上，以色列大屠杀纪念馆（Yad Vashem）所承认的波兰“各国义士”人数是全部欧洲国家中最多的（这并不奇怪，因为战前波兰是迄今为止欧洲犹太人数量最多的国家）。


But these remarkable individuals typically acted on their own, against prevailing social norms.	但这些可歌可泣的个体的行为常常是自发的，与主流社会规范对立。


They were misfits who, long after the war had ended, insisted on keeping their wartime heroism a secret from their neighbors – afraid, it seems, that their own communities would otherwise shun, threaten, and ostracize them.	他们是另类，在战争结束后很久仍然对邻居隐瞒他们在战时的英雄行为——似乎是害怕所在社区会因此排斥、威胁和驱逐他们。


All occupied European societies were complicit to some degree in the Nazi effort to destroy the Jews.	所有被占领的欧洲社会都或多或少参与了纳粹屠杀犹太人的行动。


Each made a different contribution, depending on country-specific circumstances and conditions of German rule.	每个国家所起的作用不同，取决于各国具体的环境和德国统治的情况。


But the Holocaust played out most gruesomely in Eastern Europe, owing to the sheer number of Jews in the region and the incomparable ruthlessness of the Nazi occupation regimes.	但大屠杀在东欧最为恐怖，因为这一地区犹太人数量大、纳粹占领政权特别冷酷。


When the war ended, Germany – because of the victors’ denazification policies and its responsibility for instigating and carrying out the Holocaust – had no choice but to “work through” its murderous past.	战争结束时，德国——由于战胜国的消灭纳粹化政策及其煽动和实施大屠杀的责任——别无选择，只能与其凶残的过去“决裂”。


This was a long, difficult process; but German society, mindful of its historical misdeeds, has become capable of confronting moral and political challenges of the type posed by the influx of refugees today.	这是一个漫长的艰难过程，但德国社会铭记着它的历史错误，因此如今有能力面对大量难民涌入所带来的道德和政治挑战。


And Chancellor Angela Merkel has set an example of leadership on migrants that puts all of Eastern Europe’s leaders to shame.	总理默克尔也为移民问题树立了领导榜样，足以令所有东欧领导人汗颜。


Eastern Europe, by contrast, has yet to come to terms with its murderous past.	相反，东欧还没有与其凶残的过去决裂。


Only when it does will its people be able to recognize their obligation to save those fleeing in the face of evil.	只有完成了这一决裂，东欧人民才有能力认识到他们拯救逃避恶魔的难民的义务。


Eastern Europe’s Ostrich Policy on HIV	东欧的艾滋病鸵鸟政策


CARDIFF, CALIFORNIA – Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 90% of the 1.5 million people estimated to be infected with HIV in Central and Eastern Europe.	发自加利福尼亚的加地夫——目前整个中东欧地区大概有150万艾滋病感染者，其中90%分布在俄罗斯和乌克兰两国。


On a recent trip to these countries, and despite repeated requests, no politician or public-health official in either country would meet with me. None returned the phone calls, faxes, or e-mails that I sent after I returned home.	在我最近对这两地的走访当中，尽管多次联系，没有一位当地政治家或者卫生官员愿意出面会见我，我回国后又尝试用电话，传真或者电子邮件等方式联系他们，但得到的依旧是沉默的回应。


Both countries have epidemics driven by injecting drug users (IDUs) who share needles and syringes, the most efficient way to transmit HIV. Yet proven methods exist to slow the spread of HIV by IDUs.	这两个国家的艾滋病传播主要存在于注射吸毒者之间，而他们共享针头和注射器的行为是最容易传播艾滋病病毒的，但目前已经开发出有效的方式来减缓艾滋病在这类群体中的蔓延。


If IDUs inject heroin or related opiates – as is primarily the case in Eastern Europe – establishing opiate substitution programs with methadone or buprenorphine can dramatically slow HIV transmission.	对于那些使用海洛因或者相关鸦片提取物的注射吸毒者（这是东欧面临的主要问题），服用美沙酮和丁丙诺啡 （buprenorphine）这类鸦片类物质替代物可以极大地减少艾滋病病毒的传播。


The success of such programs also depends on establishing needle/syringe exchanges at convenient locations, both to provide clean equipment and to draw users into the healthcare system.	此外这类抗感染项目的成功实施还有赖于在某些合适的地点建立针头/注射器更换点，一方面向吸毒者提供干净的用具，另一方面也方便将他们纳入到医疗卫生体系当中。


As the third leg of the stool, IDUs need counseling.	为了更好地巩固这些措施，还需为吸毒者提供心理咨询服务。


This trio of policies forms the foundation of what’s known among health-care professionals as the “harm-reduction package.” Russia and Ukraine, however, spend no money on harm reduction.	上述这三项措施构成了医疗卫生专家所熟知的“减轻危害套餐”，但俄罗斯和乌克兰两国却对此无动于衷。


International aid supports harm-reduction efforts in both countries on a modest scale: most of the money comes from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria.	其实两国在减轻艾滋病危害方面已经接受了足量的的国际援助：大部分资金来自于联合国全球防治艾滋病、结核病和疟疾基金会。


But Russia, owing to a rise in its national income, no longer is eligible for HIV/AIDS Global Fund grants.	随着俄罗斯的国民收入上升到一定水平，该国已经不再位列艾滋病全球基金的资助名单之内。


A group of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Russia that has run a harm-reduction effort with Global Fund money received assurances from the government that it would continue to bankroll the work once that money ran out. But last fall the government reneged, and the Global Fund issued the group an emergency grant for two years.	那些原本依靠上述基金运作的俄罗斯非政府组织得到了政府的承诺，一旦款项耗尽，政府将拨款继续支持这项工作。


Cash-strapped Ukraine, which remains eligible for Global Fund help to combat HIV/AIDS, also relies entirely on NGOs – most created by affected communities – to run its harm-reduction programs.	但政府却在去年秋天违背了自己的诺言，于是全球基金只能再度向这些组织发放了两年期紧急援助金。


Aside from shaky funding, the harm-reduction efforts in Russia, and to a large degree in Ukraine, lack a fundamental tool: opiate-substitution treatment.	除了不可靠的政府资助之外，俄罗斯以及乌克兰大部分地区的减轻危害项目都缺乏一个基本工具：鸦片类物质替代物。


Russia bans the use of methadone outright.	俄罗斯已经立法禁止使用美沙酮。


“There is no evidence that use of methadone and buprenorphinefacilitates treatment of drug addicts,” declared Olga Krivonos, head of the Department of Medical Aid and Healthcare Development at Russia’s Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development, in March 2009.	该国卫生保健与社会发展部下属的医疗援助和卫生保健发展局局长奥尔加·科里沃诺斯于2009年3月声称：“没有证据表明美沙酮和丁丙诺啡有利于对吸毒成瘾治疗。


Ukraine, which legalized the import of methadone only in December 2007, had a mere 5,000 people receiving it when I visited.	”而乌克兰迟至2007年12月才批准进口美沙酮，在我到访之时仅有5000人参与相关治疗。


“There is a large body of scientific evidence on the effectiveness of substitution treatment vis-à-vis HIV/AIDS,” concluded the World Health Organization, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS in a 2004 policy brief.	与俄乌两国观点相反的是，由世界卫生组织，联合国毒品与犯罪办公室以及联合国艾滋病联合项目于2004年共同发布的一份政策报告中明确表示“大量科学证据证明了替代物疗法在对抗爱滋病方面的有效性”。


The US Institute of Medicine weighed in on the issue in a 2007 report: “Given the strong evidence of its effectiveness in treating opioid dependence, opioid agonist maintenance treatment should be made widely available where feasible.”	而美国医学研究所则在一份2007年的报告中进一步证明：“考虑到鸦片类兴奋剂在治疗鸦片类物质成瘾方面的明显证据，相关治疗方法应当得到广泛推广。 ”


The popular explanation for lack of action in Russia and Ukraine is that their governments view IDUs as criminals, rather than people with a disease, and adopt an informal let-them-rot policy.	一般认为俄乌两国之所以不愿做为，是因为两国政府都将注射吸毒者视为罪犯而非需要救治的病人，因此宁愿让这些人自生自灭。


Indeed, police regularly harass users (and people who help them), making matters worse.	两地警方经常会找那些吸毒者（及其救助者）麻烦，导致情况不断恶化。


Many countries outside the region take a similar stance.	事实上还有许多国家也正在采取同样的立场。


But it’s more complicated in Eastern Europe.	但东欧的情况其实更为复杂。


A leftover Soviet distrust of outsiders colors many opinions, and there’s an oft-repeated claim that the culture is different: an intervention that works in the West might fail in the East.	那种不信任外界的前苏联遗风导致官员们对许多观点都存有偏见，此外他们还不断强调文化间的差异：在西方行得通的做法未必在东方奏效。


There is also a suspicion that dirty capitalist pigs want to profit from the sale of opiate substitutes, regardless of whether they work.	还有人怀疑“肮脏的资本主义走狗”一心利用鸦片替代物来牟利，根本不管这些东西是否有用。


This is as silly as contending that antiretroviral drugs won’t work in the region, and that treating HIV is all a giant plot on the part of big pharmaceutical companies.	同样的愚蠢的还有宣称抗逆转录药物在该地区不会起作用，或是声言爱滋病治疗是那些西方大药厂的一场阴谋。


Humans are humans. Harm reduction works everywhere, and the main financial benefactors are the countries themselves, which see reduced spread of HIV, drops in crime, and people returning to work.	大家都是人，减轻危害措施全球通行，更何况最大的受益者就是这些国家本身——减少艾滋病毒传播，犯罪率下降，吸毒者也能重新投入工作。


Playing ostrich about harm reduction does not harm only IDUs. HIV-infected IDUs of course have sex with non-users.	在减轻危害方面实施鸵鸟政策不仅会伤害注射吸毒者，正常人也有可能在与感染者的性行为中遭殃。


Pregnant HIV-infected IDUs transmit the virus to their babies, and sometimes – shockingly often in Russia – abandon their newborns, relinquishing them to the state.	那些怀孕的艾滋病患者将病毒传染给了自己的胎儿，有时甚至（尤其是在俄罗斯）直接将这些新生儿遗弃在路边，把包袱甩给国家。


The people infected by IDUs also can infect others sexually, further fortifying the bridge into the “general” population.	那些从注射吸毒者身上感染了艾滋病毒的人同样会���其他人发生性关系，进一步将病毒向“主流”人群散播。


In July, Vienna hosted the 18th International AIDS Conference, attracting nearly 20,000 people.	去年7月在维也纳召开的第18届国际艾滋病大会吸引了约2万名与会者。


Speakers included Austrian President Heinz Fischer, Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, and South Africa’s Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe.	奥地利总统海因茨·菲舍尔、比尔·克林顿，比尔·盖茨以及南非副总统卡莱马·莫特兰特都在会上进行了发言。


Organizers held the meeting in Vienna specifically because it is “the gateway to Eastern Europe,” and they hoped to involve the region more than ever.	会议组织者之所以选择了维也纳，就是因为该地素有“通往东欧的门户”之名，并希望进一步涵盖东欧地区。


For the first time, all proceedings were translated into Russian. But no high-level Russian or Ukrainian official attended.	大会的所有议程都首次被翻译成俄文，但却没有任何俄罗斯和乌克兰高级官员出席本次会议。


A “Vienna Declaration,” endorsing harm reduction – and emphasizing drug policy based on science, not ideology – was launched at the meeting, and gathered more than 10,000 signatories.	会上发布的“维也纳宣言”既认可了减轻危害措施的效用，同时也并强调毒品政策应当建立在科学而非意识形态之上，并征集了超过1万名代表的签名。