Many kinds of pushback can be expected, not least the argument that the veto exists not to protect the P5’s interests, but to ensure unanimity of the major players (conspicuously missing in the UN’s ill-fated predecessor, the League of Nations) in any action undertaken, in order to maintain international peace and security.	可以预期会遇到各种阻力，比如有人会提出否决权的存在不是为了保护“五常”的利益，而是为了保证所有行动上重要行动方的一致性（联合国命运多舛的前身国际联盟就显然缺少这一点），从而维持国际和平与安全。


We will be told that it is unconscionable to ask a P5 member to forgo a veto when it genuinely believes that a proposed resolution will cause more harm than good.	我们会被告知，要求“五常”在其真正认为决议议案利大于弊时放弃否决权是不合情理的。


One response is that it is almost impossible to find any such genuinely high-minded rationale for any veto ever cast in a mass-atrocity situation.	一个回应是，你几乎不可能在群众暴行情况中找到如此真正崇高的理由行使否决权。


Another is that any UN Security Council resolution requires at least nine affirmative votes (in a Council of 15).	另一个回应是，任何联合国安理会决议至少需要九张赞成票（由15个理事国投票）。


If there are genuine concerns on the merits, that requirement will prove a very high bar.	如果真的值得担心决议的必要性，这一要求已经是一个更高的保险因素。


The point of the veto restraint is, at minimum, to raise the political cost for those who would block action designed to ensure that there are no more Cambodias, Rwandas, Srebrenicas, or Syrias.	否决权克制的关键点是至少要提高阻挠为了确保柬埔寨、卢旺达、斯雷布雷尼察和叙利亚悲剧不再发生而采取的行动的政治成本。


The French proposal, though still evolving, has already struck a responsive chord internationally.	法国的议案尽管仍在不断完善，但已经触动了国际反响之弦。


The other P5 members will ignore it at their peril.	其他“五常”成员国忽视这一信号是十分危险的。


Financial Regulators’ Global Variety Show	金融监管，八仙过海


PARIS – In the early phases of the financial crisis, it was fashionable to argue that the United States’ system of regulation needed a fundamental structural overhaul.	巴黎—在金融危机的早期阶段，一个流行的观点是美国监管系统需要从根本上进行结构修正。


Differences of opinion between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had obstructed effective oversight of investment banks and derivatives trading (only the US believes that it makes sense to regulate securities and derivatives separately).	证券交易委员会（SEC）和商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）态度的不同阻碍了对投资银行和衍生品交易的有效监督（只有美国相信分开监管证券和衍生品是有意义的）。


Indeed, the plethora of separate banking regulators had created opportunities for banks to arbitrage the system in search of a more indulgent approach to capital.	事实上，银行监管过于细分给寻找放纵使用资本的银行造就了制度套利的机会。


Likewise, the lack of a federal insurance regulator had left AIG regulated by the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) and the New York State Insurance Department, which proved to be a wholly inadequate arrangement.	类似地，联邦保险监管者的缺位使AIG归储蓄管理局（Office of Thrift Supervision，OTS）和纽约州保险局（New York State Insurance Department）监管，这一安排显然是不到位的。


Little has come of these arguments.	这些观点并没有起到什么效果。


The Dodd-Frank Act did succeed in putting the OTS out of its misery, but jealous congressional oversight committees have prevented a merger of the SEC and CFTC, and nothing has been done to rationalize banking supervision.	多德-弗兰克法案确实成功地解除了OTS的忧虑，但眼红的各个国会监督委员会成功阻止了SEC和CFTC的合并，银行监督合理化也没有任何进展。


So the American system looks remarkably similar to the one that turned a collective blind eye to the rise of fatal tensions in the early 2000’s.	因此，美国的制度与对21世纪初造成致命危局的集体视而不见并没有什么区别。


One factor that contributed to institutional stasis was the absence of a persuasive alternative.	制度顽固的一个因素是缺少令人信服的替代方案。


In the decade or so leading up to the meltdown of 2007-2008, the global trend was toward regulatory integration.	在通往2007—2008年大崩溃的十年中，全球趋势一直是尽管合并。


Almost 40 countries had introduced single regulators, merging all types of oversight into a single all-powerful entity.	近40个国家成立了单一监管者制度，把所有类型的监督都合并到一个全能监督实体中。


The movement began in Scandinavia in the early 1990’s, but the most dramatic change came in 1997, when the United Kingdom introduced its Financial Services Authority (I was its first chairman).	这一趋势开始于20世纪90年代初的斯堪的纳维亚国家，但决定性变化发生在1997年英国成立金融服务局（Financial Services Authority，我是第一任局长）。


Other countries adopted slightly different models.	其他国家的方式略有不同。


A fashionable approach was known as “twin peaks,” whereby one regulator handled prudential regulation – setting capital requirements – while another oversaw adherence to business rules.	普遍情况被称为“双峰”（twin peaks），由一个监管者处理审慎监管（制定资本要求），另一个监管者监督商业法规的遵守情况。


But twin peaks itself was further subdivided.	但双峰本身又有进一步细分。


The Dutch model brigaded the prudential regulators inside the central bank, while the Australian version was built on a separate institution.	荷兰模式是把审慎监管指责归于央行，而澳大利亚模式是成立单独机构。


These integrated structures seemed to offer many advantages.	这些集中式机构似乎具备诸多优点。


There were economies of scale and scope, and financial firms typically like the idea of a one-stop (or, at worst, a two-stop) shop.	它们符合规模经济和范围经济，金融企业通常也喜欢一站式（最糟糕也只是两站式）监管。


A single regulator might also be expected to develop a more coherent view of trends in the financial sector as a whole.	单一监管者也许还能有助于形成对金融部门整体趋势的一致看法。


Unfortunately, these benefits did not materialize, or at least not everywhere.	不幸的是，这些好处并没有成为现实，或并非在所有国家都成为了现实。


It is hard to argue that the British system performed any more effectively than the American, so the single-regulator movement has suffered reputational damage.	很难说英国制度比美国制度表现更好，因此单一监管者运动算不上声誉卓著。


And the continuing travails of the Dutch banking system – another bank was nationalized last month – suggest that it is easy to fall into the gap between twin peaks.	而荷兰银行系统的持续阵痛——上个月又有一家银行被国有化——表明掉入双峰之间的深谷可能性也是很高的。


The truth is that it is hard to identify any correlation between regulatory structure and success in heading off or responding to the financial crisis.	事实是，很难识别监管结构和成功消弭或应对金融危机之间的相关性。


Among the single-regulator countries, Singapore and the Scandinavians were successful in dodging most of the fatal bullets, while the UK evidently was not.	在采取单一监管者的国家，新加坡和斯堪的纳维亚国家成功地躲避了大部分致命危险，而英国显然没有做到这一点。


Among the twin peak exponents, the Dutch system performed very poorly indeed, while Australian financial regulation may be considered a success.	至于双峰模式的样板国家���荷兰制度的表现不可不谓极差，而澳大利亚金融监管可以认为是成功的。


Does it matter whether the central bank is directly involved?	央行是否直接参与有意义吗？


Many central bankers maintain that the central bank is uniquely placed to deal with systemic risks, and that it is essential to carry out monetary and financial policies in the same institution.	许多央行行长认为央行在应对系统性风险中具有独一无二的作用，让一个机构指定货币和金融政策至关重要。


Again, it is hard to find strong empirical support for that argument.	对于这一观点，也找不到强有力的实证证据。


The Dutch and American central banks, with direct oversight of their banking systems, were no more effective in identifying potentially dangerous systemic issues than were non-central bank regulators elsewhere.	荷兰和美国央行都直接参与监督银行系统，它们在识别潜在系统性问题方面并不比其他国家的非央行监管者更有效。


Canada is often cited as a country that steered its banks away from trouble, even though they sit uncomfortably close to US markets.	加拿大经常被看做引导银行远离麻烦的典范，尽管它与美国近在咫尺。


But the Bank of Canada is not now, and has never been, a hands-on institutional supervisor.	但加拿大央行从来没有成为、现在也不是亲力亲为的监督机构。


So perhaps the US Congress has been right to conclude that changing the structure of regulatory bodies is less important than getting the content of regulation right.	因此，或许美国国会关于改变监管机构结构不如纠正监管内容的观点是正确的。


Elsewhere, though, a lot of structural change is under way.	但在其他国家，已经发生了诸多结构性变化。


In the UK, every financial disturbance leads to calls to revamp the system.	在英国，每一次金融乱象都会引起人们修正制度的大声疾呼。


There were major overhauls in 1986, and again in 1997, when the Bank of England lost its banking supervision responsibilities as a delayed response to the collapse of Barings.	1986年曾修正过一次、1997又修正过一次——巴林银行倒闭后，英格兰银行被剥夺了银行监督责任。


Next month, it gets them back – and more.	下个月，它将重新获得这一权力——有过之而无不及。


For the first time, the Bank of England will supervise insurance companies as well.	英格兰银行将第一次获得监督保险公司的权力。


A similar change has been introduced in France, where a new Prudential Control Authority has been created.	法国也实施了类似的变革，成立了新的审慎控制局（Prudential Control Authority）。


The British and French rarely agree on anything; one is tempted to say that when they do, they are highly likely to be wrong.	英国人和法国人很少在哪件事情上看法相同； 可以这样说，要是英法两国意见都一致，那一定大事不妙了。


It is difficult now to discern a coherent pattern.	现在考虑一致模式是很困难的。


Certainly, the trend toward full-service single regulators outside the central bank has slowed to a crawl (though Indonesia is consolidating regulators at present).	显然，通向非央行全能单一监管者的趋势进展极为缓慢（尽管印尼目前正在整合监管者）。 对于央行角色也没有一致意见：大约三分之一的国家，央行是主要监管者；


There is no consensus on the role of the central bank: in around a third of countries, it is the dominant player, in another third it has responsibilities for banks only, while in the remaining third it is a system overseer only.	三分之一的国家央行只负责银行； 还有三分之一的国家央行只是系统监督者。


We could see this as a controlled experiment to try to identify a preferred model.	我们可以把识别更优模式看成是控制实验。


After all, financial systems are not so different from one another, particularly in OECD countries.	毕竟，金融制度彼此之间并没有很大区别，特别是在经合组织国家之间。


But there is no sign of a considered assessment being prepared, which might at least help countries to make better-informed choices, even if it did not conclude that one model was unambiguously best.	但没有迹象表明准备对其进行评估——即使不足以找出毫无争议的最佳模式，评估至少能有助于各国做选择时拥有更加全面的信息。


The G-20, under its current Russian presidency, is now in search of a role.	在俄罗斯的轮值领导下，G20正在寻求起作用。


Here is a useful practical task it might take on.	这便是它可以承担的一个有用的现实任务。


Selecting Our Children	筛选我们的孩子


MELBOURNE – In April, Germany’s parliament placed limits on the use of genetic diagnosis.	发自墨尔本——在4月，德国国会对基因诊断的应用设定了限制。


Is the new German law a model for other countries to follow as we grapple with the ethical issues posed by our growing knowledge of human genetics?	那么德国的新法令是否可以作为一个可供他国参考的样本，来应对随着人们对自身基因的日益了解所带来的一系列伦理问题？


Some provisions of the German law draw on the widely shared ethical principles of respect for individual autonomy and privacy.	其中一些德国法令条款是基于某些被广泛接受，且与个人自治和私隐权息息相关的论理原则。


No one can be tested without his or her consent.	比如没有人可以在不知情的情况下接受基因测试；


Neither employers, nor insurance companies, may require genetic testing.	雇主和保险公司也不能要求基因测试；


Individuals are granted both the right to know – to be informed of the results of any genetic test about themselves – and the right to choose to live in ignorance of what a genetic test may predict about their future.	一个人既被授予了知情权——有权知道所有与其本人有关的基因测试结果——同时也有权选择不去获知基因测试所可能预示的未来，继续自己的生活；


To discriminate against or stigmatize anyone on account of their genetic characteristics is prohibited.	而且任何因某人基因特征所产生的歧视或者诬蔑行为都是被禁止的。


Desirable as these provisions seem, they could impose a heavy cost on German companies.   If insurance companies outside Germany are permitted to require genetic tests while German companies are prohibited from doing so, then people who know they have life-shortening genetic diagnoses will get their life insurance from German insurance companies.	这些条款尽管看上去挺合理，但却可能让德国企业背负上沉重的包袱。 因为如果其他国家的保险公司被允许进行基因测试而德国本地企业却不能的话，那么那些知道自己拥有减寿基因的人就会选择在德国的保险公司投保。


These companies will then find themselves making more payments for premature deaths relative to their competitors.	而这些保险公司很快会发现他们比竞争对手要承受更多的意外死亡赔偿。


To cover the increased costs, they will have to raise premiums, making themselves uncompetitive.	为了平衡这笔负担，他们将被迫提高保费，最后自然变得更加缺乏竞争力。


In an attempt to mitigate this problem, the law specifies that anyone taking out an insurance policy valued at more than €300,000 may be required to disclose the results of prior genetic tests.	为了缓解这个问题，法案要求所有购买总额超过30万欧元保险的投保人都必须披露自己之前的基因测试结果。


But if people lie about whether they have previously been tested, that provision will be moot.	但假如人们在是否接受过基因测试这个问题上说了谎，这个条款就毫无意义了。


As genetic testing becomes increasingly able to predict not only health, but also some cognitive and personality traits, the prohibition on employer testing may also put German employers at a disadvantage in the international marketplace. They will invest resources in training employees whom their competitors will exclude from the initial pool of recruits.	而随着基因测试不仅能预测某个人的健康状况，更逐渐有能力预知其认知能力和个人品质，关于雇主不得进行测试的禁令也将令德国雇主在国际市场上遭遇劣势，因为他们花了大笔投资来培训的那些雇员，可能只是其他国家雇主们早已用基因测试预先筛选掉的残羹剩饭罢了。


This may be a humane thing to do, for it gives every individual a chance, irrespective of the genetic odds against their paying their way for the company.	如果我们能给每个人以平等的机会，不管他们的基因差异而得以混口饭吃，这可能是件宅心仁厚的佳话。


But, in the long term, if we are serious about prohibiting such tests, we need an international agreement – on both insurance and employment – to ensure a level playing field for all countries.	但在长期来说，如果我们真心要杜绝这类测试，则需要一份国际协议——来保证所有国家都是在同一个平台上竞争。


That will not be easy to achieve in a globally competitive economy in which some nations have demonstrably less respect for individual human rights than others.	当然，在一个竞争激烈的国际经济环境下这可能很难做到，因为某些国家显然把其他东西看得比人权更重要。


The German law’s most controversial feature is a prohibition on prenatal genetic testing for diseases that will manifest themselves only in adulthood.	而德国法案最富争议的部分，则是禁止在胎儿身上进行基因检测来发现那些在成年之后才可能发病的疾病。


Consider, for example, a woman who knows that her partner has the gene for Huntington’s disease. Any child of his has a 50% chance of inheriting the condition.	比如一位女性知道她的伴侣携带有亨廷顿舞蹈症的基因，而这位男性的任何后代都有50%的机会遗传这种病症。


If the child does inherit it, he or she will, at around 40, begin to suffer uncontrollable movements, personality changes, and a slow deterioration of cognitive capacities.	如果那个孩子遗传了这种基因，那么他/她就会在40岁左右发病，导致动作不受控制，性格突变以及缓慢的认知能力衰退。


People with Huntington’s disease usually die about 15 years after the onset of the symptoms. There is no cure.	亨廷顿舞蹈症患者一般都会在发病15年左右死去，而这种病暂时还是不治之症。


No parents could want this future for their children.	没有父母希望自己的孩子有一个这样的未来。


Prenatal testing of fetuses (or of in vitro embryos before transfer to the uterus) is now well established throughout the developed world.	胎儿（或者对尚未植入子宫的试管婴儿胚胎）出生以前的检测在发达国家已经非常完善。


If the test is positive, the pregnancy can be terminated, or, in the case of pre-implantation diagnosis, the embryo will be discarded.	如果对亨廷顿舞蹈症的检测呈阳性反应，那么整个怀孕过程就会被终止，或者说在胚胎植入之前的诊断中，这个胚胎就会被抛弃。


The new German law makes such tests a crime. The same is true of tests for the genes that strongly predispose women to breast cancer.	但德国的新法案却将这种测试定为非法罪行，而对某种极可能导致妇女乳癌的基因的检测也在禁止之列。


As genetics advances, more such late-onset conditions will become detectable prenatally.	随着基因技术进一步发展，更多这类后天疾病都可能在出生以前就被检测出来。


What could be the thinking behind such a law?	那么在这项法案背后体现了一种���么思维呢？


One might take the view that 40 years of life before the onset of Huntington’s disease or breast cancer is better than no life at all.	有人可能会想，如果能在亨廷顿舞蹈症或者乳癌之前有40年命总比连活都没活过要好。


But if we take that into account, should we not also take into consideration the life of the child who the parents would have had, if they had been able to use prenatal diagnosis and be sure of having a child who does not carry the gene for the disease?	但如果我们考虑了这一点，那么是否也要考虑到，父母利用胎儿/胚胎基因检测技术去确保生下一个不携带廷顿舞蹈症基因的孩子，这个孩子不也是一条生命？


Surely that child has better life prospects. When we have a choice between lives with such different prospects – and can make the choice before the embryo or fetus has any awareness at all – shouldn’t we be able to choose the child with the better prospects?	这个孩子显然会有有更美好的人生，而当我们可以在如此截然不同的生命前景中做出选择——并且可以在胚胎或者胎儿出现任何迹象之前就可以做决定——那么我们是不是应该选择前景更美好的孩子？


It is not surprising that questions about genetic tests should receive special attention in Germany, given the national imperative of avoiding any repetition of the crimes of the Nazi era.	基因测试这个议题能在德国获得了如此关注，这毫不奇怪，因为这是一个强令自己一定不能重犯纳粹时期“筛选优良人种”罪行的国家。


But, in their laudable desire to distance themselves as much as possible from those atrocities, Germany’s legislators have enacted a law that makes it a crime to use modern science to avoid undoubted human tragedies.	但即便他们尽可能避免重蹈覆辙的意愿令人赞叹，德国的立法者们却通过了这样一项法案，把可以避免某些人类悲剧的现代科技手段定义为有罪。


That is an absurd outcome. The pendulum has swung too far.	而这是显然个荒谬绝伦的结果，德国人显然是矫枉过正了。


Self and the City	个人与城市


BEIJING – What is the big story of our age?	发自北京——我们这个时代最大的事件是什么？


It depends on the day, but if we count by centuries, then surely humanity’s urbanization is a strong contender.	虽然每个年代的侧重点各有不同，但如果用世纪为单位来衡量的话，那么人类的城市化肯定是一个有力的候选项。


Today, more than half of the world’s population lives in cities, compared to less than 3% in 1800.	现在全世界已经有超过一半的人口居住在城市，而1800年时只有不到3%。


By 2025, China alone is expected to have 15 “mega-cities,” each with a population of at least 25 million.	预计到2025年，仅中国一国就将拥有15座人口超过2500万的“超级城市”。 那么那些社会批评家们的忧虑又是有道理的吗？


Are social critics right to worry about the atomized loneliness of big-city life?	在大城市中生活的人们是否将遭遇那种相互疏离的原子化孤独？


True, cities cannot provide the rich sense of community that often characterizes villages and small towns. But a different form of community evolves in cities.	诚然，城市无法提供乡村或者小城镇中特有的那种浓郁的社区感，但它却孕育着另一种不同的社区形式。


People often take pride in their cities, and seek to nourish their distinctive civic cultures.	人们经常为自己所在的城市感到自豪，并想方设法培育自身特有的市民文化。


Pride in one’s city has a long history.	城市自豪感这种东西拥有悠久的历史。


In the ancient world, Athenians identified with their city’s democratic ethos, while Spartans prided themselves on their city’s reputation for military discipline and strength.	在古代，雅典人用自己城市的民主气质来定义自己，而斯巴达人则以本城的军事纪律和强大实力为荣。


Of course, today’s urban areas are huge, diverse, and pluralistic, so it may seem strange to say that a modern city has an ethos that informs its residents’ collective life.	当然，如今的城市区域已经变得巨大，分散以及多元化，因此如果说一座城市拥有一种足以影响其居民集体生活的精神气质，那未免会令人生疑了。


Yet the differences between, say, Beijing and Jerusalem, suggest that cities do have such an ethos.	但举例说来，北京和耶路撒冷之间的区别说明其实这种气质是存在的。


Both are designed with a core surrounded by concentric circles, but Jerusalem’s core expresses spiritual values, while Beijing’s represents political power.	虽然两座城市都是围绕着一个核心而用许多同心圆构建起来，但耶路撒冷的核心体现了精神价值，而北京则意味着权力。


And a city’s ethos shapes more than its leaders.	同时城市气质的塑造作用比领袖人物更为强大。


Beijing attracts China’s leading political critics, while Jerusalem’s social critics argue for an interpretation of religion that holds people, rather than inanimate objects, sacred.	北京吸引了中国最顶尖的政治评论家，他们不喜欢讨论那些单调的宗教议题，而耶路撒冷的社会评论家则致力于解读那些将人们团结在一起的宗教。


In both cases, despite objections to the ruling ideology’s specific tenets, few reject the ethos itself.	在两个城中虽然都有人对主流意识形态的某些特定原则表示不满，但很少人会批评城市气质本身。


Or consider Montreal, whose residents must navigate the city’s tricky linguistic politics.	再看看蒙特利尔，一个居民们必须在微妙的语言政治中摸索的城市。


Montreal is a relatively successful example of a city in which Anglophones and Francophones both feel at home, but language debates nonetheless dominate the political scene – and structure an ethos for the city’s residents.	对于讲英语和讲法语的人来说，该市堪称一个可以提供归属感的相对成功的范本，但针对语言的讨论依然充斥着政治舞台，并塑造了该市居民的某种气质。


Hong Kong is a special case, where the capitalist way of life is so central that it is enshrined in the constitution (the Basic Law).	香港则是一个特例，那种资本主义生活方式是如此强大，以至于要专门列入宪法（基本法）条文。


Yet Hong Kong-style capitalism is not founded simply on the pursuit of material gain. It is underpinned by a Confucian ethic that prioritizes caring for others over self-interest, which helps to explain why Hong Kong has the highest rate of charitable giving in East Asia.	但香港式的资本主义并不仅仅构建与对物欲的追求之上，还来自于一种将对他人的关心凌驾于自利之上的儒家道德伦理，也恰好解释了这个城市为何拥有全亚洲最高的公益援款比率。


Paris, on the other hand, has a romantic ethos.	而另一方面，巴黎则拥有一种浪漫的气质。


But Parisians reject Hollywood’s banal concept of love as a story that ends happily ever after.	但巴黎人拒绝那种大团圆结局的好莱坞式陈旧爱情观念。


Their idea of romance centers on its opposition to staid values and predictability of bourgeois life.	他们对浪漫的理解集中在其对那种落后价值观以及平庸中产阶级生活的反叛之上。


In fact, many cities have distinctive identities of which their residents are proud.	事实上，许多城市都拥有某些足以令本市市民自豪的特质。


Urban pride – what we call “civicism” – is a key feature of our identities today.	那种城市的自豪感——也就是我们所谓的“市民主义”——是我们自身定义的一个关键特质。


This matters in part because cities with a clear ethos can better resist globalization’s homogenizing tendencies.	而这之所以那么重要，某种程度上是因为一座拥有自身气质的城市更加能够抵御全球化浪潮中的同质化倾向。


It is worrying when countries proclaim their timeless and organic ideals, but affirming a city’s particularity can be a sign of health.	在国家宣示它们长期并且简单复制的理念时或许会令人忧虑，但对一座城市独特性的强调则可能是一种生命的迹象。


Chinese cities seek to counter uniformity via campaigns to recover their unique “spirit.”	中国的城市试图通过那些复原其独特���精神”的运动来反抗单一化。


Harbin, for example, prides itself on its history of tolerance and openness to foreigners.	比如说哈尔滨就以其一直以来对外国侨民的容忍和接纳为荣。


Elsewhere, Tel Aviv’s official Web site celebrates, among other attractions, the city’s progressive role as a world center for the gay community.	而世界另一端的特拉维夫，政府网站上的诸多条目中则出现了庆祝该市逐渐成为全球同性恋社区核心城市的内容。


Urban pride can also prevent extreme nationalism.	城市自豪感还能防止极端民族主义的出现。


Most people need a communal identity, but it may well be better to find it in one’s attachment to a city than in attachment to a country that is armed and willing to engage in conflict with enemies.	大多数人需要一个社会定义，但将这一定义依附在一座城市之上显然要比依附在一个全副武装并打算与敌人发生冲突的国家身上更好。


Individuals who have a strong sense of civicism can make decisions based on more than mere patriotism when it comes to national commitments.	在面对国家责任这样的问题时，那些拥有强烈市民主义感的人不会仅凭自己的爱国主义情绪就贸然做出决定。


Cities with a strong ethos can also accomplish political goals that are difficult to achieve at the national level.	那些拥有强烈气质的城市同时还可以达成一些在国家层面上难以达成的政治目标。


China, the United States, and even Canada may take years to implement serious plans to address climate change.	中国，美国甚至是加拿大可能需要花费许多年才能推行一个旨在应对气候变化的严谨方案。


Yet cities like Hangzhou, Portland, and Vancouver take pride in their “green” ethos, and go far beyond national requirements in terms of environmental protection.	但像杭州，波特兰和温哥华这样的城市都以其“绿色”气质为荣，并在环境保护方面远远超越了自己国家所能做到的一切。


Urbanization is blamed for a wide variety of modern social ills, ranging from crime and incivility to alienation and anomie.	人们指责城市化，认为是它引发了诸如犯罪，不文明行为，冷漠和社会失范等现代社会病。


But, by infusing us with their unique spirit and identity, our cities may, in fact, help to empower humanity to face the most difficult challenges of the twenty-first century.	但通过将其独特精神和定义灌输到我们的思维中，我们的城市其实可以赋予人类更多的力量去应对21世纪的挑战。


Self-Financing Development	自我融资发展


NEW YORK – A remarkable feature of the international financial system in the last decade has been the rapid and vast accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves by developing countries.	纽约 – 过去十年国际金融系统的的一个显著特征就是发展中国家快速和巨大的外汇储备的积累。


World foreign reserves tripled from $2.1 trillion in December 2001 to an unprecedented $6.5 trillion in early 2008, according to IMF data.	按照国际货币基金的统计数据，从2001至2008年，世界外汇储备从2万一千亿美元上升到6万5千亿美元，翻了三倍。


Developing countries as a whole accounted for more than 80% of global reserve accumulation during this period, and their current level of reserves approaches $5 trillion.	整个发展中国家占了这一时期全球外汇积累的80%以上，它们的 储备量接近5万亿美元。


Half of this volume is concentrated in developing Asia, but Latin America and Africa have also been amassing international assets at a remarkable pace.	这笔资金的一半集中在亚洲发展中国家，但拉丁美洲和非洲也在以令人瞩目的速度积累国际资产。


This pool of reserves surpasses developing countries’ immediate liquidity needs, leading to their increased creation and expansion of sovereign wealth funds, which have an additional level of assets of more than $3 trillion.	这些储备量超过了发展中国家的目前所需的流动资产需求，造成了这些国家主权财富基金的不断形成和扩张，这还要另外加上三万多亿美元的资产。


The unprecedented increase in developing countries’ foreign exchange reserves is due both to their current-account surpluses and large net capital inflows.	发展中国家史无前例的外汇储备的增长有两个原因,一是经常项目账户盈余，二是大量的净资本的流入。


Practically all developing countries’ reserves are invested in developed countries’ assets, leading to an increasing net transfer of resources from the developing to the developed world, which, according to UNDESA estimates, reached $720 billion in 2007 alone.	几乎所有的发展中国家的外汇储备都投资到发达国家的资产中去了，造成了从发展中国家到发达国家的不断上升的转移净额，根据联合国经济和社会事务部的估算，仅2007年一年就达到了7千2百亿美元。


Although economic growth and poverty reduction in many developing countries has been impressive in recent years, a significant increase in investment in areas such as infrastructure is required to sustain such growth in the future.	尽管很多发展中国家在经济发展和脱贫方面取得了令人瞩目的成就，但仍需要在基础设施等领域大大增加投资以满足将来可持续性发展。


We propose that a very small portion of developing countries’ total foreign-exchange reserves – say, 1% – be channeled to the expansion of existing regional development banks or the creation of new ones that would invest in infrastructure and other crucial sectors.	我们建议发展中国家把很小一部分的外汇储备，比如1%，放到现有的地区性的发展银行中去，或者建立新的发展银行，用这些银行去投资基础设施和其它的至关重要的领域。


Indeed, infrastructure investment is recognized as a key ingredient in sustaining and accelerating growth.	确实，投资基础设施被公认是可持续性发展和加速发展的重要因素。


However, there is a large financing gap.	但是，融资方面存在着大缺口。


According to the World Bank, developing countries spend an average of 3-4 % of GDP on infrastructure every year, compared to an estimated 7% of GDP required to meet existing infrastructure needs for maintaining rapid growth.	依世界银行的统计，发展中国家现在每年平均把国民生产总值的3-4%投资在基础设施建设上，但根据估算，需要每年支出7%才可以满足维持快速发展对基础设施的需求。


This translates into an annual gap of at least $300 billion at current prices.	也就是说，按照目前的价格，每年的缺口至少是三千亿美元。


High expectations for private-sector financing of infrastructure have gone largely unmet.	人们对私企参与基础设施的融资有着很高的期盼，但这些期盼大都落了空。


Private investment remains limited and concentrated by both country and sector.	私人投资仍然有限，并集中在国家和地区手里。


National governments still account for the large majority of financing.	绝大部分融资仍然是来自国家政府。


Official development assistance and multilateral bank lending, though valuable, remain insufficient.	官方对发展扶持和多边银行的贷款尽管有价值，但是仍然不够。


In particular, there are large gaps in the provision of crucial regional and cross-border investments, for example in energy and roads.	尤其在重要的地区性和跨国性投资领域里，比如在能源和道路方面，存在着巨大的缺口。


Multilateral financial institutions must maintain their central function in the international development architecture, and in particular in financing infrastructure investment.	多边金融机构应该在国际发展的构建上，尤其是在对基础设施投资的融资方面，保持它们的中心功能。


But regional and sub-regional financial institutions owned by developing countries can and should play an important and valuable complementary role.	但是，发展中国家所拥有的区域性和次区域性的金融机构，也可以并应该扮演一个重要的补充角色。 这些机构能让发展中国家发出更大的声音，让他们有主人翁感。


These institutions give a greater voice and sense of ownership to developing countries, are more likely to rely on moral suasion rather than conditionality, and tend to benefit from smaller information asymmetries.	这些机构更可能依靠道义上的劝告而不是条件的符合； 而信息不对称程度较低，也能给机构带来好处。


Moreover, regional and sub-regional development banks are particularly suited to provide regional public goods.	而且，区域性和次区域性的发展银行尤其适合于为跨区域提供公共物资。


The growing importance of trade integration and regional trade flows makes the provision of regional infrastructure urgent.	贸易一体化和区域之间的贸易流使对跨区域基础设施的需求变得紧迫起来。


The European experience offers valuable lessons in this regard.	这方面，欧洲提供了宝贵的经验。


Trade integration was initially supported by massive investments in regional infrastructure, financed to an important extent by a large, specifically created institution, the European Investment Bank.	最初的大规模的跨区域基础设施投资，促进了贸易一体化，其很大一部分融资是由欧洲发展银行这个专设的大型的机构来提供的。


If developing countries allocate only 1% of their foreign exchange reserves to the paid-in capital of regional and sub-regional institutions, this would amount to $50 billion at current levels of reserves.	如果发展中国家拨出1%的外汇储备给区域性和次区域性机构作为缴入资本，按照目前的外汇储备水平来算，这就等于500亿美元。


Assuming a ratio of loans-to-capital of 2.4 times – an estimate based on the ratio of the successful and financially sound Andean Development Corporation – the expanded regional and sub-regional development banks or new ones could generate additional lending of approximately $120 billion.	假设债权性投资与权益性投资的比例为2. 4倍（这一估算是基于财务状况良好的成功的安第斯开发公司的比例基础上的），扩展的跨区域和跨次区域发展银行，以及新成立的发展银行，大约可以增加1200美元亿的贷款。


With time, they could leverage retained earnings, increasing their lending potential without additional paid-in capital.	日后，他们可以利用所得收益而无需追加缴入资本就能增加其贷款能力。


This would imply the ability to finance an important proportion of unmet needs for infrastructure financing.	这意味着一大部分没有满足的基础设施的融资需求将得到解决。


Based on these initial calculations, the additional lending capacity generated would be significantly larger than total disbursements currently made by existing multilateral development banks.	基于这些初步计算，新增的贷款能力将比现有多边发展银行的总发放贷款量还要高得多。


Obviously, more detailed calculations and analyses are required, along with discussions with governments, existing institutions, rating agencies, and other stakeholders.	当然，我们还需要做更详细的计算和分析，同时也要和各国政府、现有机构、评级机构和其它利益相关方进行讨论。


By expanding or creating new regional and sub-regional financial institutions, developing countries could lay the basis for their own current and future lending capacity, which would eventually help them meet their development goals.	发展中国家通过开展和建立新的区域性及次地域性金融机构，能够为自己的目前和将来的贷款能力打下基础，最终，这将帮助实现他们的发展目标。


Given their large foreign-exchange reserves, we believe the time to begin such an initiative is now.	考虑到它们目前巨大的外汇储备，我们相信现在是采取行动的时候。


Mine Your Digital Business	挖掘你的数字生意


BOSTON – Nearly everyone has a digital footprint – the trail of so-called “passive data” that is produced when you engage in any online interaction, such as with branded content on social media, or perform any digital transaction, like purchasing something with a credit card.	波士顿—几乎所有人都留下了数字足迹——所谓的“消极数据”（passive data）痕迹，在你参与在线互动时产生，比如社交媒体上的品牌活动或者用信用卡买东西之类的数字交易活动。


A few seconds ago, you may have generated passive data by clicking on a link to read this article.	几秒钟前你点击鼠标链接到这个网页上阅读本文也会产生消极数据。


Passive data, as the name suggests, are not generated consciously; they are by-products of our everyday technological existence.	顾名思义，消极数据并非有意产生； 而是日常科技存在的副产品。


As a result, this information – and its intrinsic monetary value – often goes unnoticed by Internet users.	因此，这类信息——及其内在货币价值——通常不为互联网用户所注意。


But the potential of passive data is not lost on companies.	但公司并未放过消极数据的潜力。


They recognize that such information, like a raw material, can be mined and used in many different ways.	它们意识到这类数据就像是新矿藏，可以挖掘并用于许多不同用途。


For example, by analyzing users’ browser history, firms can predict what kinds of advertisements they might respond to or what kinds of products they are likely to purchase.	比如，通过分析用户的浏览历史，企业可以预测他们会响应怎样的广告、可能购买怎样的产品。


Even health-care organizations are getting in on the action, using a community’s purchasing patterns to predict, say, an influenza outbreak.	甚至医疗组织也加入其中，使用社区购买模式预测（比如）传染病的爆发。


Indeed, an entire industry of businesses – which operate rather euphemistically as “data-management platforms” – now captures individual users’ passive data and extracts hundreds of billions of dollars from it.	事实上，一个全新的捕捉个体用户消极数据并从中挖掘数千亿美金的生意行当已经产生——其中的企业被委婉地称为“数据管理平台”。


According to the Data-Driven Marketing Institute, the data-mining industry generated $156 billion in revenue in 2012 – roughly $60 for each of the world’s 2.5 billion Internet users.	根据数据驱动营销研究所（Data-Driven Marketing Institute）的数据，2012年数据挖掘行业实现收入1,560亿美元——相当于全球25亿互联网用户每人贡献了60美元。


As impressive as this figure sounds, it is just the first step for the data economy.	这一数字相当令人瞩目，而这只是数据经济的第一步。 到2020年，全球互联网人口将达到五十亿；


By 2020, the global Internet population will reach five billion; ten billion new machine-to-machine connections will be created; and mobile data traffic will rise 11-fold.	创建十亿新机器对机器（machine-to-machine）连接； 移动数据量将增长11倍。


Given the dramatic growth in the amount of data being generated, together with ever-expanding applications across industries, it is reasonable to expect that individual data will soon be worth more than $100 per Internet user.	数据的产生量将出现剧烈增长，再加上各行业不断扩张的应用，有理由期待个体数据价值很快就会超过100美元/互联网用户。


Within ten years, the data-capture industry can be expected to generate more than $500 billion annually.	不出十年，数据捕捉行业年收入就有望突破5,000亿美元。


Based on these projections, one might wonder what kind of compensation the creators of this multibillion-dollar data can expect.	基于这样的预期，你可能会感兴趣这些价值成百上千亿美元的数据的额创造者能获得怎样的报偿。


As it stands, the answer is none at all.	目前的情况是没有任何报偿。


Individual users are at the bottom of a broken economy.	个体用户是破产经济的底层。


The value that their data generate is being collected by third parties, and sold to whatever cash-rich organization is willing to purchase it.	他们的数据所产生的价值由第三方收集，然后卖给愿意购买的资金雄厚的组织。


This does not have to be the case.	并不一定必须如此。


The first step toward reclaiming some of the value of our own data is to view this information as an asset, rather than as a by-product.	要夺回你自己的数据的部分价值，第一步是将这些信息视为一种资产而非副产品。


At that point, Internet users can find ways to take control of their own creation.	目前，互联网用户可以找到控制自己所创造之物的控制权。


Already, Facebook users can export all of their personal data as a zip file simply by clicking a link on their profiles.	Facebook用户只要轻点通往个人信息的链接，就可以将个人数据打包输出。


Presumably, they could sell that information directly to the organizations that want it, instead of allowing Facebook to do so.	他们可以直接将这一信息出售给想要的组织而不授权Facebook这样做。


Of course, the data market does not yet exist on this scale.	当然，数据市场并不生存于如此规模之上。


But, as Facebook’s data-export facility demonstrates, a new model that turns data into an asset and consumers into producers is not a distant prospect.	但是，Facebook的数据输出便利表明，将数据转化为资产、将消费者转化为生产者的新模式并非天方夜谭。


Such a model would empower billions of Internet users by making them beneficiaries of a transactional exchange – one that adds value in every direction.	这一模式能让数十亿互联网用户参与增加所有方价值的交易性交换，让他们从中获益。


Beyond enabling individual Internet users to monetize their data, this model would benefit data buyers by connecting them more closely to consumers – not least by diminishing the mistrust that can arise when users are not complicit in the sharing and use of their data.	除了能让个体互联网用户将自己的数据货币化，该模式还能让数据买家与消费者联系更加紧密，从而从中获益——减少用户不同意共享和使用他们的数据时所可能产生的不信任感。


Indeed, firms that acknowledge that personal data are personal property will be in a better position to build relationships with individual consumers, thereby gaining deeper insights into their specific needs and desires.	事实上，认识到个人数据是个人资产的企业将更有利地建立与个体消费者的关系，从而更深度地了解消费者的具体需要和渴望。


If passive data are worth hundreds of billions of dollars when sold by third parties, the data that individuals choose to share – reliable, honest insights into their motivations as consumers – should be worth much more.	如果第三方出售消极数据可以获得数千亿美元，那么个体选择共享的数据——它们是洞察身为消费者的个体的动机的可靠、真实的信息——应该更有价值。


By recognizing the individuals behind the data, companies can access and share in that value, within a fully inclusive data economy.	在充分包容的数据经济中，公司可以通过认识数据背后的个体获得和共享这一价值。


Personal data is exactly that – personal.	个人数据就是个人的数据。


People should choose whether to share it, and they should be able to share it on their own terms.	人们应该选择是否共享它，也应该根据自己的条件共享它。


Send in the Clowns	小丑出场


New York -- Beppo Grillo is one of Italy’s most famous comics. He is also one of Italy’s most influential political commentators.	纽约——比普•格瑞罗是意大利最著名的喜剧演员之一，同时也是意大利最具影响力的政治评论家之一。


His blog attracts 160,000 hits daily, and if he could run for prime minister (he can’t, because of a criminal record), more than half of Italy’s voters, according to a poll last year, would have considered voting for him.	他的博客每天的点击率高达16万。 根据去年的一次民意测验，如果他能够参加首相选举（他不能，因为他有犯罪记录），超过半数的意大利选民将考虑投他一票。


Grillo is yet another reminder of a modern phenomenon: the important role of comedians in contemporary politics.	格瑞罗同时也代表了另一种现代现象：喜剧人物在当代政治中所发挥的重要作用。


Until a few years ago, the one TV program most Mexicans turned to for political information was called The Morning Quickie, broadcast from 6-10 a.m.	直到几年前，墨西哥最受欢迎的政治信息类电视节目还是早上6点至10点播放的《晨间电视新闻》。


The host, interviewer, and main commentator was Victor Trujillo, better known as Brozo the Clown, adorned with a green wig and a red rubber nose.	该节目的主持人、采访人兼主要评论员是维克多·特鲁希略，他以戴着绿色假发和红色橡皮鼻的小丑布罗佐形象著称。


It was Brozo the Clown who exposed a major corruption scandal in the office of a former Mexico City mayor.	正是他揭露了前墨西哥市长执政时期的一起重大腐败丑闻。


While staid TV pundits ask the usually vapid questions during presidential debates in the United States, candidates know that the really important thing is to get laughs on the comedy shows of David Letterman or Jay Leno.	美国总统辩论期间，在严肃的电视批评家问着通常非常乏味的问题的同时，候选人明白真正重要的是在大卫·莱特曼或杰伊·莱诺主持的娱乐节目中引发更多的笑声。


And, for several years, American liberals have looked to Jon Stewart, another comic talent, for critical political commentary.	而且，美国自由党人连续数年都极为关注另一位喜剧天材乔恩·斯图尔特对重大政治事件的评论。


Of course, comic entertainment in politics is not just a modern phenomenon.	当然，政治滑稽剧并非始于现代。


Nero was a murderer who understood that he had to amuse the masses to gain popular support.	尼禄就是一名深谙取悦大众赢得广泛支持之道的杀人犯。


Then there is the long tradition of the court jester with license to criticize the despot by sweetening his barbs with jokes.	御用宫廷弄臣用玩笑的方式婉转批评暴君统治的历史同样源远流长。


The annual Gridiron Club Dinner in Washington, where the president is lampooned by the press, is a relic of this custom.	每年在华盛顿举行的嘲讽总统的烤架俱乐部年度晚宴便是这一传统的遗存。


In the US, especially, the borderlines between showbiz and politics (or indeed religion) have always been porous.	在美国，娱乐和政治（或者宗教）之间的界线非常模糊。


The similarities between the variety show, the evangelical meeting, and the party convention are striking.	综艺节目、布道会和政治会议之间具有令人惊异的相似性。


Europeans like to sneer at American political jamborees as being hopelessly vulgar.	欧洲人通常对美国政治集会嗤之以鼻，认为它们不可救药的粗俗。


In fact, democracy demands a degree of showmanship and pizzazz; politicians need to appeal to the mass of voters, and not just to an elite, which can afford to ignore hoi polloi.	事实上，民主需要一定的演技和魅力； 政治家需要迎合广大选民，而不能仅仅具有脱离大众的精英情趣。


To be utterly boring, holding forth for hours on end, regardless of entertainment value, is the privilege of autocrats.	不厌其烦、滔滔不绝、无视娱乐价值只是独裁者的特权。


Only communist rulers could force millions of people to buy their complete works, filled with wooden ideas written in turgid prose.	只有共产党统治者才能强迫成百上千万民众购买他们充斥着装腔作势的愚蠢观点的全套著作。


The problem with many democratic politicians today is that they have become almost as dull as the old communist autocrats.	当今许多民主政治家的问题就在于他们已变得和呆板的旧式共产独裁者毫无二致。


Most, especially in Europe, are professional politicians with no experience apart from working the levers of party machines.	其中许多，尤其是在欧洲，是除了运转政党机器外毫无经验的职业政客。


Gone, for the most part, are the colorful rogues and public-spirited idealists who used to liven up parliamentary politics.	能够活跃国会政治气氛的幽默风趣的无赖和忧国忧民的理想主义者已一去不返。


Like bureaucrats, professional politicians have mastered the art of saying nothing interesting in public.	与官僚一样，职业政客已经掌握了言之无味的艺术。


They are managed by equally professional press handlers, masters of spin and the television sound bite.	他们受到同样专业的媒体运营商、舆论导向和电视广播讲话幕后人物的操纵。


In these dying days of serious newspaper journalism, slick television shows, packaged by highly-paid anchormen – who never utter an original thought themselves, and would never expect a politician to do so – are the only venues where professional politicians feel secure enough to “face” the public. As a result, the public is turned off.	在这个死气沉沉的严肃报纸媒介时代，华而不实的电视节目，以及从未有过独到见解也不指望政治家能一语惊人的身价不菲的节目主持人可以说是职业政客唯一感觉可以放心大胆地“直面”公众的地方，因此也让观众心生厌烦。


Not since the 1930’s has popular disgust with politicians in Europe, the US, as well as Japan, run so high.	自上世纪30年代以来，欧洲、美国以及日本对政客的厌恶情绪甚嚣尘上。


This is dangerous, because such sentiments can end in disgust with liberal democracy itself.	这很危险，因为这种情绪可能导致对民主政治本身的排斥。


Does the future belong, then, to the clowns, the anarchic blogosphere, the anti-politicians, and the populist showmen who entertain the masses with jokes, slurs, and indiscretions on TV channels, which some of them actually own?	那么，未来是否属于小丑、奉行无政府主义的博客圈、反政客和在电视频道上用玩笑、诽谤、爆料来哗众取宠的平民主持人（有的甚至实际拥有电视频道）？


If the success of a TV pundit with a red rubber nose is a rebuke to the dull and fawning anchormen, the political success in recent years of entertainers, demagogues, and public figures who make a virtue of their indiscretion is a slap in the face of the professional political class which they profess to despise.	如果戴着红鼻子的电视批评家的成功是对乏味和阿谀奉承的主持人的反讽，那么近年来娱乐人、煽动者和把轻率言行引以为荣的公众人物所取得的政治成功可以说是打在公开抨击这些人的职业政客脸上的一记耳光。


The recent re-election of the great showman Silvio Berlusconi illustrates this perfectly.	最近，热衷于做秀的西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼的重新当选为这一现象做了最好的注释。


Although none of the aspiring candidates for the US presidency can match him in terms of zaniness, similar trends are plain to see.	尽管在做秀方面，没有一位志存高远的美国总统候选人可与之相比，但我们可以明显看到相同的趋势。


John McCain managed to defeat his more conventional Republican rivals by seeming to be totally different from them: a maverick who says what he damned well wants, a tough guy with the knowing wink of the old ladies’ man.	约翰·麦凯恩力图以与众不同的方式来击败其它更为传统的共和党对手：他是坦率说出他内心所想的特立独行者，也是拥有老妇杀手般会意眼神的硬汉。


Barack Obama, at least when he began his campaign, had all the charisma of the holy roller, turning on the crowds with the rhetorical spark of a great evangelist.	至少在进行竞选活动时，巴拉克·奥巴马拥有摇喊派教徒的所有魅力，在面对公众时闪烁着伟大传道者的修辞光芒。


That is why he barged his way past Hillary Clinton, the consummate operator of the party machine.	这也是为什么他能赶超希拉里·克林顿——政党机器的完美实践者——的原因。


In some ways, Obama’s candidacy illustrates the problems facing our democracies today.	在某些方面奥巴马的候选资格表明了当今民主所面临的问题。


People don’t trust the professionals.	人们不再相信职业政客。


But electing a clown is not the answer either.	但选择小丑也不是办法。


Obama happily combines showmanship and seriousness in a way that could inject new life into the democratic system.	奥巴马在某种程度上成功地综合了做秀和严肃这两种方式，对民主体系带来了鲜活的力量。


But he has been maneuvered into a peculiar dilemma.	但他也陷入一个独特的两难境地。


Attacked for being shallow, indiscreet, and flashy by the Hillary camp, he has toned down his revivalist rhetoric, and adopted a more sober, more cautious, more professional air.	希拉里阵营攻击他浅薄、轻率和媚俗，他因此减少对复古主义修辞的使用，并采用了一种更为朴素、更加谨慎也更为专业的论调。


Yet, by doing so, he may have made himself less popular, and is being accused of elitism to boot.	但这样做的结果是，他的支持率有所下降，并被指责奉行精英路线。


Here is one case where a bit more vulgar showbiz may be exactly what democracy requires.	从这我们可以看出，民主大概就是需要有些粗俗的做秀。


East Asia’s Patriots and Populists	东亚的爱国者和民粹主义者


TOKYO – When faced with domestic worries, politicians often resort to foreign diversions – a simple axiom that is highly useful in assessing the increasingly tense sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Seas.	东京—在面临国内压力的时候，就会把矛头转向外部。 这个简单的道理在评估东海和南海紧张的主权争议时特别有用。


Although China is involved in the most wide-ranging and intense disputes, the most tragic is that between South Korea and Japan, given that both countries are democracies with almost identical strategic interests.	尽管中国已经卷入了范围最广、激烈程度最甚的争议，但它最大的不幸处在韩国和日本之间，而这两个国家都是民主国家，有着几乎相同的战略利益。


On August 10, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited the island of Takeshima (called Dokdo in Korean), which has been the subject of a territorial dispute between Japan and South Korea for 60 years.	8月10日，韩国总统李明博访问了日韩争议了60年的竹岛（韩国称独岛）。


During a lecture at the Korea National University of Education four days later, he stoked tensions further, saying of the Emperor of Japan’s proposed visit: “If he wants to come, he should apologize first for the past.”	四天后，在韩国国立教育大学的演讲中，他将紧张局势又往前推了一部，这样告诫日本帝国主义者的登岛计划：“要开可以，但得先就历史进行道歉。 ”


Despite his numerous achievements as president, Lee is trumpeting his nationalist/anti-Japanese credentials in the waning days of his term, which ends in February 2013.	尽管在总统任期内成绩出众，但李明博还是在任期快结束时高调展示自己的民族主义/反日立场。


Indeed, so strident has he become that he refused to accept a message from Japan’s prime minister about his island visit.	他的任期将于2013年2月结束。 事实上，他强硬到了无视日本首相关于他登岛的意见的程度。


Lee’s hyper-patriotism is new.	李明博的超级爱国主义是新出现的现象。


Less than two months ago, he reached an agreement to share military intelligence with Japan – a deal that was subsequently abandoned, owing to fears that the opposition would attack his party’s presidential candidate as subservient to Japan.	不到两个月前，他还与日本达成了共享军事情报的协议，该协议随后被弃，因为担心反对派会攻击其所在党派总统候选人为日本人的走狗。


Lee’s recent behavior may also reflect his fear that he could suffer a fate similar to that of past South Korean presidents.	李明博最近的举动可能同样反映的是对自己重蹈过去几任韩国总统命运的担心。


Some have been assassinated, one committed suicide, and others were arrested and condemned to death after stepping down.	在韩国的诸位前总统中，有些被刺杀，一位自杀，其他人在下台后被逮捕并判处死刑。


Lee may have interpreted his brother’s arrest in July for accepting bribes as a prelude to such a fate.	李明博可能会把7月其兄因受贿入罪视为自己悲惨命运的先兆。


Attempting to mitigate future domestic political damage by undermining the dynamics of the relationship between South Korea and Japan – and both countries’ relationship with the United States – is unwise.	李明博试图用破坏韩日关系动态（以及两国对美国的关系）来减轻未来国内政治压力，此举并不明智。


Given North Korea’s continued potential for military mischief and the fluid state of security in Asia in the wake of China’s rise, such tactics could have serious, if unintended, consequences.	朝鲜不断地进行着军事挑衅，中国崛起令亚洲安全局势陷入扑朔迷离，在这样的背景下，如此行事会造成严重（如果不是意料之外的话）的后果。


The origins of the dispute over Takeshima lie in the period immediately before the Treaty of San Francisco was signed in 1951, formally ending World War II in the Pacific.	竹岛争端的起源可以追溯到1951年旧金山条约的签署，该条约正式结束了二战的太平洋战争。


The treaty demarcated territory, including Takeshima.	该条约规定了包括竹岛在内的领土界限。


But South Korea’s then-president, Syngman Rhee, in violation of the treaty and international law, instituted the “Syngman Rhee Line” to demarcate an expansive area, including Takeshima, within which South Korea unilaterally claimed fishery jurisdiction.	但韩国时任总统李承晚违反旧金山条约和国际法，私设“李承晚线”，把包括竹岛在内的海域单方面地划入韩国渔业管辖权范围。


Since then, South Korea has used the issue as a means of boosting national prestige – and, aware that its sovereignty claims are legally dubious, has refused to allow the International Court of Justice to adjudicate.	此后，韩国就利用竹岛问题作为刺激民族自尊心的手段，他们也知道其主权主站在法理上站不住脚，因此拒绝国际法庭介入宣判。


More ominous, however, is the sovereignty dispute between Japan and China.	但中日主权争议要更加严重。


Here, history has a story to tell as well.	在这方面也可以从历史入手。


Japan’s government officially incorporated the Senkaku Islands into Japanese national territory in 1895.	日本政府正式将钓鱼岛划入版图是在1895年。


Since then, the islands have consistently been held to be Japanese.	此后，该列岛一直掌握在日本手中。


Indeed, at one point there was a dried bonito factory in operation, and more than 200 residents on Uotsuri, the largest of the islands (roughly the size of New York City’s Central Park).	事实上，钓鱼岛上一度出现过一家加工鲣鱼干的工厂，在其主岛（面积相当于纽约市中央公园）上还有过200位居民。


At WWII’s end, in accordance with Article 3 of the Treaty of San Francisco, the islands were placed under United States control, but reverted to Japan in 1972, as part of the agreement that returned to it administration of Okinawa.	二战结束时，根据旧金山条约第三条，钓鱼岛由美国控制，但美国于1972年将控制权交还给了日本（作为交还冲绳管辖权协议的一部分）。


Until this point, neither China nor Taiwan expressed objections.	到此为止，大陆和台湾都没有表示过反对。


In the Chinese World Atlas published under Mao Zedong in 1960, the Senkaku Islands were treated as part of Okinawa.	在1960年毛泽东时代出版的中文世界地图中，钓鱼岛被视为冲绳的一部分。


And, although circumstances changed in 1968, when a survey by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific revealed the seas around the islands to contain an abundance of resources, the periodic tensions that arose were manageable.	尽管情况在1968年起了变化——当时，联合国亚太地区经济和社会委员会的一份报告披露，钓鱼岛周围海域蕴藏着丰富的资源——但是不是发生的紧张对峙一直处在可管理的范围内。


That dynamic was altered when the Democratic Party of Japan came to power three years ago.	这���形势在三年前日本民主党上台执政后发生了变化。


The DPJ’s feckless dithering over whether to renew the US Marines’ lease on a base on Okinawa signaled to the world – and to China, in particular – that the party did not value the US alliance and America’s security guarantee as highly as previous governments did.	民主党在是否延长美国驻冲绳海军基地租期的问题上尽显反复和无能，等于告诉全世界（特别是中国）该党不像前任那样重视美日同盟和美国安全保障的重要性。


As a result, China has since been testing Japan’s resolve and America’s assurances, though US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent and resolute affirmation of her country’s commitment to Japan’s security should put an end to any suspicion in that regard.	结果，中国开始试探日本的决心和美国的保障力度，尽管美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿最近坚决重申美国对日安全承诺应该为任何这方面的疑虑画上了一个句号。


Meanwhile, domestic tension in China – particularly the scandal surrounding the purge of former Chongqing Communist Party boss Bo Xilai and the country’s economic slowdown – has probably prompted the government to play the nationalist card more forcefully than usual.	与此同时，中国国内的紧张局势——特别是前重庆市委书记薄熙来落马的相关丑闻以及经济增长的减速——可能迫使政府比以前更坚决地打出了民族主义的牌。


The Party’s upcoming Congress to anoint the country’s new leadership for the next decade adds to its desire to manipulate public emotion.	将产生未来十年新领导人的十八大的临近也增加了引导公众情绪的必要性。


But the nationalist genie, once released, is not easily controlled.	但民族主义的魔鬼一旦被释放就很难控制。


Some anti-Japanese demonstrations – which featured rioting, looting, and the destruction of Japanese businesses – mutated into anti-government protests.	有的反日游行——以扰乱、洗劫和毁坏日本企业为特征——最后演变成反政府示威。


By allowing social tensions to mount to such a degree, the Chinese government may also be partly responsible for the recent rampage among thousands of workers at the Foxconn plant (where components for Apple iPods and iPads are made) in Taiyuan.	放任社会紧张到如此程度的中国政府对于最近在太原富士康（苹果iPod 和iPad的组装工厂）千人大斗殴事件中也要付一定的责任。


This December, South Korea will elect a new president. Japan is likely to hold fresh elections soon as well.	今年12月，韩国将选出新总统，日本可能也将在此后不久进行新选举。


The governments that emerge should use their popular mandates to forge a new form of cooperation that can transcend an embittered past.	两国新政府应该利用民众支持度高的良机塑造新的合作关系，抛弃仇恨的过去。


What France and Germany achieved in the 1950’s can serve as an example.	20世纪50年代的法国和德国是很好的范例。


By forging shared sovereignty over issues vital to national security – namely, coal and steel – visionary leaders in both countries laid the foundation for European peace and security, while overcoming a long history of antagonism.	通过打造在事关国家安全——即没和贴——的问题上共进退关系，两国具有远见卓识的领导人为欧洲的和平和安全打下了基础，同时也消弭了两国长期的历史敌对。


In the face of China’s rise and maritime ambitions, East Asia’s two great democracies must seek to do no less.	面对中国的崛起和领海雄心，东亚两大民主国家必须像德法那样行动起来。


If they succeed, South Korea and Japan would establish a precedent that offers the best path to resolving the great sovereignty questions that are now destabilizing Asia.	韩国和日本可以为后来者建立一个榜样，开创解决眼下正在动摇亚洲的主权大问题的最佳解决之道。


Sense and Nonsense about Disproportionate Force	过度武力辨


As the war in Lebanon continues, the term “disproportionate force” is being bandied about as if some crystal clear principle of international law lay behind it, telling us when force is disproportionate and why it is illegal.	当黎巴嫩战争持续之际，人们广为谈论“过度武力”这一词语，好似其身后有国际法中清晰无误的原则，告知人们何时武力过度以及为何这是非法之举。


But civilian deaths as a result of military combat are not enough to say that “disproportionate force” has been used.	但是，由于军事作战引发的平民死亡并不足以说明使用了“过度武力”。


Nor has that standard, whatever it is, been met if more children die on one side than the other.	如果某一方的儿童死亡多于另一方，也并不达到某种标准，而无论这一标准为何。


So what, then, does “disproportionate force” mean, and what is its place in the law of war?	那么，“过度武力”究竟为何物，其在战争法中地位究竟如何呢？


Let’s go back to basics.	让我们回归本源。


In the domestic law of self‑defense, the use of force must always be both necessary and proportionate to the interest being protected.	在有关自卫的国内法中，使用武力必须总是必须的，而且与受到保护的利益成比例。


A good example is whether a storeowner may shoot looters who are escaping with his goods.	一个显而易见的例子就是一个店主是否可以枪击携其店内商品逃跑的打劫者。


If there is no other way to stop the thieves, the use of force is necessary.	如果没有其他制止小偷的方式，那么，使用武力就是必需的了。


But is it proportional?	但是，这是成比例的吗？


That depends on whether the cost to the looters of being shot so clearly outweighs the value of the stolen goods that the storeowner should do nothing, at least at the moment.	那就要取决于打劫者被枪击的代价是否明显地高于被盗商品的价值，以至于店主应当至少在当时不什么也不做。


He always has recourse to the police and the possibility that they might recover the goods.	店主总是可以报警并且可能索回商品。


In other words, force becomes disproportionate when the costs of using it are too high.	换句话说，当使用武力的代价过高时，武力就不成比例。


However, this does not mean that force becomes “disproportionate” simply when the costs outweigh the benefits.	但是，这并不意味着只要当代价高于收益时，武力就变得“过度”。


After all, a woman may use deadly force to avoid being raped, even though the life of the aggressor, one would think, is worth more than the sexual integrity of the potential victim.	毕竟，一名妇女可以使用致命武力来避免被强暴，即使有人认为侵犯者的生命高于潜在受害者的性清白。


Anytime physical harm is threatened, it seems that the use of all necessary force is permissible.	任何时候受到身体上的危害，使用所有必需的武力都是允许的。


Suppose a terrorist is pulling out his victim’s teeth one by one, and that the only way to stop him is to kill him.	设想一下，一名恐怖分子在把受害者的牙一颗一颗地拔出来，而唯一制止他的方式就是将其击毙。


Most people would say that doing so is permissible, even though the harm to the aggressor is much greater than the value of the victim’s teeth.	大多数人会说这样做是允许的，即使对侵犯者的伤害远远大于受害者牙齿的价值。


How, then, do we know when force is disproportionate?	那么，我们如何知道何时武力过度呢？


This is a matter of constant debate.	对这件事的争论永无停息。


Many legal systems now take the position that, with regard to property offenses at least, the victim must be willing to surrender his property when the only available option is to kill the thief.	许多法律体系现在认为，至少对于财产侵害而言，当唯一可用的选择就是击毙小偷的时候，这个受害者必需是愿意放弃其财产的。


Let us try to apply these principles to international conflict.	让我们把这些原则运用到国际冲突之中。


Two distinct realms of self‑defense exist within the law of war.	在战争法中存在两种截然不同的自卫。


One is the justification for going to war in the first place; the second is the use of force in combat in the course of war, such as killing civilians who are attacking soldiers.	一个是首先交战的理由； 第二个是在战斗期间使用武力，例如击毙袭击军人的平民。


In the justification of armed conflict, everyone agrees that the defending state may use all necessary force to repel an aggressor.	在武装冲突的理由中，所有的人都同意，自卫的国家可以使用所有必要的武力来赶走入侵者。


When Argentina invaded and occupied the Falkland Islands, the United Kingdom could take whatever measures were necessary to remove them.	当阿根廷入侵并且占领福克兰群岛时，英国可以采取一切必要的措施赶走他们。


But let us suppose that the British bombed Buenos Aires.	但是，让我们设想一下英国轰炸布伊诺斯艾利斯。


For the use of force to be necessary, it must yield a direct military advantage that contributes to thwarting the aggression.	要想让动武成为必要，就必须产生给挫败入侵做出贡献的直接军事优势。


It would not be acceptable to argue that to bomb a city on the mainland was necessary in order to compel the Argentine population to put pressure on the military junta to withdraw from the islands.	争辩说为了迫使阿根廷人民给军事集团施加压力从群岛撤军而轰炸一座大陆城市是无法令人接受的。


So bombing Buenos Aires in that context would have been unnecessary and therefore could not possibly qualify as proportionate.	因此，在这种情况下轰炸布伊诺斯艾利斯就会没有必要，因而不可能成为适度的。


International lawyers commonly confuse the concepts of necessity and proportionality, claiming that both apply in wars of self‑defense.	国际法律师们通常将必要和适度的概念相混淆，他们声称两者都适用于自卫战争。


But this is not as clear as it is in domestic criminal law.	但是，这并非像国内刑法那样清楚。


I know of no case in the international version of shooting escaping looters where a court has affirmed that the use of force was necessary but not proportionate.	我还从来没有听说过哪家法院确认枪击逃跑的抢劫者是必要但却是不适度的国际版本的案例。


There are two reasons why international law is tolerant of the use of all, or nearly all, necessary force.	国际法容忍适用所有、或者几乎所有的必要武力有两个原因。


First, in international conflicts, the defending army must always protect the lives of its citizens, not just property interests.	首先，在国际冲突中，防卫方的军队必须总是保护其平民的生命，而不仅是财产利益。


Second, with rare exceptions, there is no international police force that can assist a defending nation.	第二，除了极少数例外，并没有什么国际警察部队来帮助一个自卫国家。


The problem of disproportionate force has different contours on the battlefield, when soldiers are already at war.	过度用武的问题在战场上有不同的特征，士兵们已经在那里撕杀。


Among all the dozens of war crimes in international law, none mentions the element of disproportionate force.	在国际法的几十个战争罪行中，没有一个提及过度用武的要素。


The closest adjective used in the Rome Statute is “clearly excessive” force.	在关于建立常设国际刑事法院的罗马公约中使用的最为接近的形容词是“明显过分”的武力。


Intentional targeting of civilians is prohibited, as is an attack on military targets in the knowledge that there will be “clearly excessive” harm relative to the value of the military target.	明知将会有相对于军事目标的价值“明显过分”的伤害而故意对准平民目标以及攻击军事目标是禁止的。


As one would expect, there is no criterion, not even a theory, for determining when the use of force carries an excessive cost to civilian bystanders.	正如人们所料想的那样，没有什么标准、甚至是理论来确定使用武力带给平民旁观者过度的代价。


The specific problem in Lebanon, particularly Israel’s bombing of southern Beirut, is deciding when the targets are protected civilians or part of a militant terrorist organization and thus subject to legitimate attack.	黎巴嫩的具体问题、特别是以色列轰炸南贝鲁特是确定目标何时是受到保护的平民或者军事恐怖组织的一部分，因而可以合法地攻击。


We have too little information about many of these attacks to know one way or the other.	有关这些攻击我们所知甚少。


This is an area where the concepts are clear but the facts remain murky.	这是一个概念明晰但是实施模糊的领域。


Journalists on the ground would do well to inquire about the relevant military objectives rather than pass judgment on the basis of the numbers of civilians killed, which may have minimal relevance to legal analysis.	现场的记者们还是应该了解相关的军事目标而不是根据平民死亡人数做出判断，这样做对于法律分析毫不相干。


Separatism, Italian-Style	意大利式分离主义


ROME – Many separatist movements in Europe have resorted to various violent terrorist acts since the second half of the twentieth century.	发自罗马——二十世纪下半叶以来，欧洲许多分裂主义运动均诉诸于暴力，并策划了各种各样的恐怖主义暴力行动。


From the 1960’s onwards, bombs and death were the order of the day in regions like Northern Ireland, Corsica (France), South Tyrol (Italy), and the Basque country (Spain).	自1960年代起，在北爱尔兰，法国的科西嘉岛，意大利的南蒂罗尔以及西班牙的巴斯克等地区，炸弹与死亡已经成了当地的家常便饭。


Indeed, the specter of violent separatism has reared its head again in Spain.	事实上，暴力分裂主义势力的幽灵已经在西班牙重新抬头。


The Basque terrorist organization ETA has ended its truce with the Spanish government, and, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of its founding, placed bombs in the town of Burgos and on the island of Majorca.	巴斯克地区的恐怖主义组织“埃塔”终止了其与西班牙政府的停火协议，而如今正值其成立50周年之际，“埃塔”又在布尔戈斯（西班牙北部城市）以及马略卡岛上放置了炸弹。


Fortunately, elsewhere in Europe, reason seems to prevail nowadays and the resort to violence has been curtailed.	值得庆幸的是，在欧洲其他地区，理性如今似乎占据了优势，而暴力行动也得到了遏制。


But that does not mean the end of separatism.	但是那并不意味着分离主义就此寿终正寝。


Italy, for example, is under constant threat of cultural and economic separatism, albeit in a peaceful way.	比如意大利就一直处于文化和经济分离主义的威胁之下，即便这种威胁依然保持着一种和平的方式。


Silvio Berlusconi's ally in government, the Lega Nord (Northern League), is continuously conjuring up schemes to embarrass the national government with threats to the concept of national unity.	而北方联盟，这个贝卢斯科尼在政府中的盟友则持续不断地谋划一系列威胁国家统一的阴谋，使政府限于尴尬的境地之中。


The Lega Nord, led by the charismatic Umberto Bossi, holds the decisive votes in Parliament to keep the Berlusconi government afloat.	在富有魅力的翁贝尔多·波西的领导下，北方联盟在议会中握有决定性的席位，以此保证贝卢斯科尼政府的稳固。


It uses this power to blackmail the government into introducing measures which discriminate between citizens of Italy’s north and south.	但正是因此，北方联盟利用手中的权力来勒索政府，迫使其事实一些政策来区别对待意大利南北方的人民。


Exponents of the Northern League, such as MEP Mario Borghezio, MP Roberto Cota, and Senator Federico Bricolo, are well known for their xenophobic statements in Parliament, particularly against those from non-EU countries.	北方联盟的代表人物，例如欧洲议会议员马里奥·波尔盖齐，议员罗贝托·科塔， 以及参议员费得里克·布里克罗，都以他们在意大利议会上发表的排外言论（尤其针对非欧盟国家公民）而臭名远扬。


But their chauvinism does not stop there: they constantly propose measures to discriminate between northern Italian citizens from Veneto or Lombardy and southerners from Naples, Calabria, or Sicily.	但这些人的沙文主义行动却并未止步于此，因为他们还不断推动各种意图把北方意大利人（比如威尼托和伦巴第大区），以及来自那不勒斯，卡拉布利亚以及西西里的南部意大利人进行区分对待的政策。


During this summer of “separatist” folly, the first proposal concerned the appointment of headmasters of schools in the Veneto region: the local councilors in the province of Vicenza approved a measure to reserve all headmaster posts in the province for northern Italian teachers.	就在今年夏天上演的“分离主义者“闹剧中，第一项提案跟威尼托大区学校校长的任命有关：威尼斯省的地方议员通过了一个法案，要求省内所有校长职位都只能由来自意大利北部的教师担任。


At the end of July, another Lega Nord MP, Paola Goisis, proposed in Parliament that teachers from Italy’s south should not be allowed to teach in northern schools unless they are well versed in the history, traditions, and dialects of the area where the school is located.	到了七月尾，另一位北方联盟议员鲍拉·高伊西斯向议会提议，来自意大利南部的教师不得在北部的学校任课，除非他们精通该学校所在地的历史，文化传统以及方言。


The Italian Minister for Education, Mariastella Gelmini, agreed to discuss the proposal.	而意大利教育部部长玛利亚斯特拉·吉尔米尼亦同意议会讨论此项提案。


The third attack on Italian unity launched at the beginning of August by the President of the Lega Nord group in the Senate, Federico Bricolo, who proposed adding a proviso to Article 12 of the Italian Constitution whereby the flags and anthems of the different regions would be officially recognized on an equal footing with the national anthem and flag.	而对于意大利国家统一的第三次冲击则始于今年八月初，参议院北方联盟阵线的领导人，费得里克·布里克罗，他提议在意大利宪法第十二条中添加一条附加条款，要求官方承认意大利不同大区的旗帜及区歌的地位与意大利国歌和国旗平起平坐。


The Lega Nord’s latest provocation is its proposal that state employees receive different salaries for the same job, depending on whether they live in the north or the south.	北方联盟最近的挑衅是一项关于工资的提案：承担同样工作的国家公务员可以依据工作地点北方还是南方而领取不同的工资。


Agriculture Minister Luca Zaia has gone so far as to argue that relating salaries to the cost of living in different regions will force the south to be self-sufficient and stop relying on help from the north.	农业部部长卢卡·扎伊亚甚至荒诞地辩称说将工资同公务员所在不同大区的生活成本挂钩将能够迫使意大利南部的人们自食其力，而不是总是想着依赖北方的帮助。


This proposal seems to have found a certain degree of support from Berlusconi, though he would likely be the only one in the country to agree with it.	而这一提案似乎也得到了总理贝卢斯科尼某种程度的支持，尽管他有可能是全国唯一赞同这个提案的人。


The trade unions, employers’ associations, all opposition political parties, and even many of Berlusconi’s own MPs have united against what they consider to be an aberration.	意大利众多的工会，雇主联合会，所有的反对党，甚至连贝卢斯科尼旗下的许多议员都已经联合起来，共同反对这个在他们看来有点神经不正常的提案。


Zaia’s vivid imagination does not stop there: he has now proposed that popular Italian TV series be dubbed or subtitled in the local dialect!	不过扎伊亚丰富的想象力并未止步于此：这次他甚至提议意大利流行电视剧以地方方言来配音或添加字幕！


And Berlusconi, consumed as he is with defending his difficult position as the main protagonist in a seemingly endless soap opera of sex scandals, is not capable of reining in such blatant provocations on the part of the Lega Nord.	而贝卢斯科尼则像一部肥皂剧的男主角那样疲于应付自己接连不断的性丑闻，根本无力遏制北方联盟这边大张旗鼓的挑衅。


The result is that Berlusconi’s supposed allies such as former Minister Gianfranco Micciche and current Governor of Sicily Raffaele Lombardo, are seriously thinking of setting up a “Party of the South” to ensure that Italy’s southern regions have enough clout to withstand the Lega Nord’s onslaught.	这一切的结果则是贝卢斯科尼本来的政治盟友，例如前经济与金融副部长乔费兰科·米奇科，以及现任西西里岛行政长官拉斐尔·伦巴多正在严肃地考虑是否要成立一个“南方党”，以确保意大利南部各地区能拥有足够势力来对抗北方联盟的猛烈冲击。


Whether such plans materialize remains to be seen. What seems certain is that, unlike in Spain, Italy’s separatist movements are gaining ground through a bloodless revolution.	以上计划能否具体实现仍有待观察，但能够确定的是，与西班牙不同，意大利的分离主义运动是通过一种非流血革命的方式来壮大发展的。


Mao was wrong: political blackmail seems to be a more effective tool than the barrel of a gun.	因此毛泽东错了：政治勒索似乎比枪杆子更有效。


Serious Harm By Research	医学实验的严重伤害


The media, legislators, and other organizations often raise concerns about human-rights violations and ethical breaches in clinical research.	媒体、立法者以及其他组织经常对临床研究违反人权以及违背伦理提出关切。


Such cases are legion.	这样的事例层出不穷。


Human subjects are allowed to be bitten by 100 mosquitoes that could carry malaria in a study in Brazil.	在巴西的一项研究中，让100只可能携带霍乱的蚊子叮咬人体实验对象。


A French doctor performs a face transplant without the benefit of the usual research that would accompany such a high-risk procedure.	一名法国医生在没有高危手术通常所需要的研究情况下进行了换脸手术。


An 18-year-old subject in a gene therapy trial dies, with numerous lapses in the clinical trial noted after his death.	一名18岁的研究对象在一个基因治疗试验中死去，在他死后发现了大量临床试验漏洞。


Just months ago, a clinical trial in London that saw the first use of a drug in humans resulted in six healthy subjects becoming violently ill.	仅仅在几个月前，在伦敦的一项临床试验中，首次服用一种药物导致六名人体实验对象身患重病。


Two of the volunteers nearly died.	两名志愿者死亡。


The volunteers were paid several thousands of dollars to participate in the trial.	这些志愿者得到了几千美元来参与这一实验。


The general public is aware of clinical research trials, but there is little awareness that the number of subjects enrolled in research is much larger than the numbers enrolled in clinical trials alone.	普通公众知道临床研究试验，但是并不知道研究中所采用的研究对象数量要远远大于临床试验。


While some research-related deaths reach the popular media, the actual number of deaths in research is higher.	尽管某些与研究有关的死亡事例被大众传媒所报道，研究中的实际死亡数量要更高。


Even regulators and industry experts are not aware of the true numbers of deaths and adverse events, due to the lack of proper reporting.	由于缺乏有效的报告，甚至连监管当局和专家们都并不知真实的死亡数字和负面事件。


The large numbers of human subjects in research are an outgrowth of the legitimate need for more and better health care throughout our ever-lengthening lifespans.	人们的寿命越来越长，自然也就需要更多和更好的医疗，结果就是人体研究对象数目庞大。


No single entity keeps track of the real extent of the abuse of all human subjects engaged in research either in the United States or worldwide.	没有任何一个单位记录在美国或者世界范围内所有用于研究的人体对象遭到滥用的实际程度。


I estimate that in the US alone, there are more than twenty million subjects, half of whom represent drug trials.	我曾经估计，仅仅在美国就有超过两千万的人体对象，其中一半是药品试验。


Worldwide, this number could exceed fifty million, with about half that number in drug studies.	在世界范围内，这一数字可能超过五千万，大约一半用于药物研究。


These staggering numbers present an awesome responsibility for our citizens and our governments alike.	这些惊人的数字对我们的公民和政府而言是一个重大严肃的责任。


The immediate ethical issue facing us is the real harm inflicted on unsuspecting subjects through a vast array of indignities, adverse events, injuries, and death.	我们面对的首要伦理问题是由于大量的剥夺尊严、负面事件、伤害以及死亡而对毫无戒心的研究对象所造成的实际伤害。


Many of those who are harmed are poor, uneducated, and politically powerless.	大量受到伤害的都是穷人、没有文化并且在政治上软弱无力的人。


Some are impaired in their ability to give informed consent due to mental or cognitive disabilities, or are exposed to coercion, improper monitoring, and pervasive conflicts of interest.	某些人由于心理或者认知残疾而在知情的情况下作出同意的能力受到了损害，或者受到了胁迫、不正当的监视以及引发错乱的利益冲突。


Moreover, the justice of the distribution of risks and benefits is questionable when research subjects are concentrated on a vulnerable segment of our society.	而且，当人体研究对象集中于我们社会中的弱势群体之时，风险和利益分配的正义性就是值得怀疑了。


Bloomberg Market magazine recently published an extensive article on the unethical practices of the largest contract research organization conducting some clinical trials in Florida.	布隆博格市场杂志最近发表了一篇文章，详尽报道最大的合同研究组织在佛罗里达州进行某些临床试验的不合乎伦理的做法。


Trial subjects drawn from illegal Latin American immigrants were threatened with reporting of their illegal status to the US Department of Homeland Security if they complained about the risks of the drug that they received.	来自拉丁美洲的非法移民的实验对象受到威胁说，如果他们抱怨他们接受的药物的风险，就会把他们的身份告发给美国国土安全部。


That is only one example.	这只是一个事例。


The system of protections for human subjects worldwide is either non-existent or broken.	全球范围内对人体对象的保护系统要么不存在，要么残缺不全。


In Europe since May 2004, all clinical trials in the 25 nations of the EU must conform to the European Directive (ED) issued in 2001 at the behest of pharmaceutical industry.	2004年5月以来，欧盟25个成员国内所有的临床试验都必须遵守根据药品产业界的要求于2001年发布的欧盟指令。


Each country’s regulatory body will have to issue their own regulations that are within the bound the Directive.	每个国家的监管机关都必须根据这一欧盟指令颁布各自的法规。


The Directive brings the protections for human subjects in European clinical trials in line with those in the US.	这一指令将欧洲的临床试验人体保护与美国的相一致。


But in both the US and Europe, the system has serious shortcomings and gaps.	但是，在美国和欧洲范围内，这一系统都存在严重的缺陷和漏洞。


For example, there are highly de-centralized ethics committees with varied qualities to protect human subjects.	例如，极为松散的不同伦理委员会保护人体实验对象。


The EU directive does not regulate social and behavioral research while the US. does not regulate research that is privately funded and not related to drug licensing.	欧盟指令并不适用于社会和行为研究，而美国则并不管理由私人资助、并且与药品许可无关的研究。


Further down the chain of supervision, research institutions are designated to “manage” their own conflicts of interests as well as those of their investigators.	监督链条以下部分中，研究机构应当“管理”他们自身的利益冲突，调查人员也是一样。


Yet many institutions and investigators have a financial stake in the clinical trials they conduct.	但是，许多机构和调查人员在其所开展的临床试验中存有经济上的利益。


Most investigators have little or no training in ethics and regulatory compliance, for which there is no mandatory education.	大多数调查人员很少有伦理和遵守法规的培训或者根本没有。 对此并没有强制性的教育。


Advocates in the US, such as the ten-year-old human rights organization, Citizens for Responsible Care and Research (www.circare.org), which I co-founded, have proposed a universal National Human Subjects Protection Act.	美国的一些维权团体，例如由我共同创立的、十年之久的人权组织支持负责任的护理和研究公民协会（ www. circare.


However, there is no likelihood of passage anytime soon.	org ）提出了一项普遍使用的全国人体研究对象保护法案。 但是，近期内基本不可能得到通过。


Opposition to serious reforms to protect human subjects in research comes from two groups: the pharmaceutical industry and universities.	反对改革保护人体研究对象主要来自两种团体，也就是医药产业和大学。


The objections of industry rest on the narrow issue of added financial cost.	医药界的反对是由于狭隘的经济成本增加问题。


The objections coming from universities are more puzzling, as it is in their long-term interest to conduct research ethically.	大学反对则更为令人疑惑，因为遵守伦理符合它们的长久利益。


In both cases, the effective protection of human subjects should receive much higher priority, thereby justifying the modest added expense, which probably would amount to no more than 1-2% of the overall cost of clinical studies.	在以上两个情况中，有效保护人体研究对象应当得到更大的优先，从而为有限增加费用提供理由。 这些增加可能会令临床研究的总体费用增加不到1-2％。


If such research is truly to serve the public good, the safety, health, and dignity of human subjects should not be compromised.	如果这样的研究的确是服务于公共利益，那么，就不应当损害人体研究对象的安全、健康以及尊严。


Serious Negotiations or Hot Confrontation with Iran?	对伊朗谈判还是动武？


Berlin – For two weeks, it looked like the regime in Iran had finally gotten the message that, if it continues to pursue its nuclear program, serious military confrontation is likely to result.	柏林--两周以来，伊朗政权好像最终认识到，如果继续追寻其核武计划，就有可能爆发大规模军事冲突。


Indeed, there were interesting – and previously unheard of – statements and signals from Teheran that suggested an increased willingness to start negotiating about Iran’s nuclear program and regional security issues.	确实，德黑兰发出了有趣而且前所未有的声明和信号，表明伊朗越发愿意就其核武和地区安全问题举行谈判。


And America’s decision to send Undersecretary of State William Burns to a meeting with Iran’s top nuclear negotiator suggests that those signals are being taken seriously.	美国决定派遣副国务卿伯恩斯会见伊朗首席核武问题谈判代表也说明国际社会也在严肃看待这些信号。


But the recent military muscle-flexing with rocket tests and the rejection of a compromise by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and his foreign minister show that the country’s leadership is seriously divided over the strategic line that Iran should pursue.	但是，伊朗最近举行军事演习试射火箭，而且伊朗总统内贾德及其外长拒绝接受妥协建议。 这些都说明该国的领导阶层在伊朗应该采取何种战略方针上存在严重分歧。


Iran’s leadership still harbors the misconception that Israeli threats against its nuclear facilities are an expression of the domestic difficulties of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s government. This is plainly wrong.	伊朗领导层现在还错误地认为以色列威胁摧毁其核子设施只不过是其总理奥尔穆特内政困难的表现而已。


Olmert’s government has serious problems, but they are not the reason that the situation between Israel and Iran is coming to a head.	奥尔穆特政府深处困境，但是这并非以色列和伊朗两国冲突一触即发的原因。


On the contrary, a cross-party consensus exists in Israel concerning Iran’s possible nuclear armament and regional hegemony.	相反，对于伊朗有可能实现核武和地区霸权，以色列各党派存有共识。


All sides agree that, unless there is a diplomatic solution, Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons must be prevented in good time and by any means necessary.	所有各方都认为，除非外交解决，否则就必须在必要的情况下采取一切手段及时阻止伊朗拥有核武。


Moreover, Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries share this view, albeit behind closed doors.	而且，尽管秘而不宣，但是沙特和其他阿拉伯国家也抱同样观点。


If Iran adopts a more realistic approach, there is real hope for a diplomatic solution.	如果伊朗采取更为现实的措施，外交解决还是有切实的希望。


The most recent offer of the 5+1 group (the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members and Germany) was well received in Teheran.	五加一小组(即联合国五个常任理事国外加德国) 最近的提议得到了伊朗良好的响应。


In addition to far-reaching political and economic cooperation, the offer promises cooperation on nuclear matters, including the construction and supply of the newest light-water reactors in Iran, as well as Iranian access to nuclear research and development – provided that there is a negotiated settlement.	这一提议除了范围广泛的政治经济合作以外，还许诺在核子问题合作，包括在伊朗建造和提供最新的轻水反应堆。 同时，还允许伊朗接触核子研发材料，但是其前提条件是谈判解决问题。


But what was really new is that Iran also responded positively to the procedure proposed by the 5+1 group.	但是，真正具有新意的是伊朗对五加一小组提出的程序做出了积极反应。


In the pre-negotiation phase, this means that Iran would agree not to install any new centrifuges, necessary for increasing the volume of uranium being enriched, while the 5+1 group would refrain from calling for new sanctions in the Security Council.	在谈判前阶段，这意味着伊朗将会同意不安装任何新的、提高铀浓缩量所必须的离心分离器。 与此同时，五加一小组则不再要求安理会实行新制裁。


Once negotiations start, Iran would, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, suspend its uranium enrichment and all related activities for six months – something that the Iranian government refused even to discuss in the last four years.	一旦谈判开始，伊朗将会在国际原子能机构的监督下在六个月的时间里中止铀浓缩活动。 在过去四年里，伊朗政府甚至拒绝讨论这一点。


For its part, the Security Council would suspend all its deliberations related to the Iranian nuclear program.	而联合国安理会则将中止讨论伊朗的核子项目。


The aim of these negotiations is a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the 5+1 group that would resolve both the nuclear conflict and address regional security issues (Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Lebanon, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan) while opening up extensive international and regional cooperation.	这些谈判的目的是在伊朗和五加一小组之间达成全面协议，而这一协议将会同时解决核子冲突以及地区安全问题(伊拉克、巴以冲突、黎巴嫩、波斯湾以及阿富汗)，与此同时开启大范围的国际和地区合作。


There were also signals emanating from Iran that, having , having mastered uranium enrichment technology, the authorities could envisage continuing enrichment in a third country in a joint consortium with the West.	还有迹象表明，在掌握了铀浓缩技术以后，伊朗当局可以设想在第三国与西方联合继续铀浓缩。


A similar proposal made by Russia was unceremoniously dismissed only a short time ago.	而在不久以前，伊朗还轻描谈写地拒绝了俄国提出的一项类似建议。


Moreover, while there is no willingness to accept Israeli hegemony, the tone vis-à-vis Israel is beginning to change.	而且，尽管伊朗不愿意接受以色列霸权，但是针对以色列的语调开始改变。


Ahmadinejad’s vile anti-Semitism has of late been indirectly, but fairly openly, criticized by one of the closest confidants of Iran’s supreme religious leader, former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati.	伊朗前外长、伊朗最高宗教领袖心腹好友之一的维拉亚提间接而又比较公开地批评了内贾德露骨的反犹言论。


Iranian spokesmen also indicate that there is an official awareness of Israel’s importance for a comprehensive regional solution, and that doing business with Israel is no longer inconceivable.	伊朗政府发言人还指出，伊朗官方意识到以色列在全面解决中东地区冲突上的重要性，而且与以色列打交道不再是不可思议的事情了。


One hasn’t heard this sort of language in all the years since Ahmadinejad came to power.	内���德上台以来这么多年人们还从来没有听说过这样的言语。


But is Iran really serious?	但是伊朗当真吗？


Or are these simply the old stonewalling tactics?	还仅仅是旧的顽抗伎俩？


Does the government just want to buy time once more, now to make it through the America’s presidential elections?	伊朗政府是不是仅仅想再一次拖延时间，一直拖到美国总统选举以后呢？


Given the public contradictions in the Iranian leadership’s behavior, is there a reliable Iranian position, and, if so, who represents it?	鉴于伊朗领导阶层举动的公开矛盾之处，伊朗有没有一个可靠的立场？


These crucial questions can only be answered by the practical test of negotiations, this time with direct American participation.	如果有的话，是何人代表这一立场？ 只有通过这一次有美国直接参与的谈判才能够回答这些问题。


If Iran is serious, the result may be nothing less than the long awaited “Grand Bargain” – a regional reconciliation of interests between Iran, on one side, and America, Europe, and the region’s US allies on the other.	如果伊朗有诚意，结果就有可能是人们期待已久的“总体协议”，也就是以伊朗为一方，美国、欧洲以及美国的地区盟友为另一方的地区性和解。


But if Iran is playing for time, its behavior is shortsighted and foolish.	但是如果伊朗仅仅是在拖延时间，那么其行为就是短视和愚蠢的。


The conflict, and thus the danger of a military confrontation, will not disappear under a new US administration.	美国新政府上台以后，冲突、乃至军事对抗的危险并不会消失。


On the contrary, should the negotiations fail, the confrontation will resurface in short order, and be far more dangerous.	相反，如果谈判失败，对抗在短期内就会再次浮现，而且远远更加危险。


Neither John McCain nor Barack Obama will take a softer stance than the current American administration on the question of Iran’s regional hegemony and its nuclear program.	麦坎和奥巴马都不会在伊朗地区霸权及其核武规划问题上采取比当前政府更为柔软的立场。


Indeed, if a diplomatic solution fails, they are more likely to react more forcefully.	实际上，如果外交解决不果，它们就更有可能做出更为严厉的反应。


It is therefore imperative that diplomacy, which looks possible at the moment, be given a chance.	因此，当前看起来可行的外交解决途径应当尽力争取。 这一点至关重要。


If the top leadership in Teheran has realized that it makes a great deal more sense, and is more in keeping with Iran’s interests, to consolidate the successes of its foreign policy in the last few years, and to strengthen the regime, rather than risk everything in a military showdown with unforeseeable consequences, then there is a real chance for a diplomatic solution.	如果德黑兰的最高领导阶层意识到，巩固其过去几年中的外交成果及其政权，而不是孤注一掷地兵戎相见、后果难以预料更有意义而且更为符合伊朗的利益，那么，外交解决就有现实的机会。


If not, the region will be plunged into a hot confrontation.	否则，中东地区就会陷入严重对抗。


There’s wisdom, which Iran’s leaders should heed, in the old adage that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.	十赊不如一现。 伊朗领导人应当理会这一古语的智慧。


Services without Tears	不会让钱包“大出血”的服务


NEW YORK – A famous claim in economics is that the cost of services (such as health care and education) tends to increase relative to the cost of goods (such as food, oil, and machinery).	发自纽约——有条著名的经济学理论认为服务（例如医疗和教育）的成本要比商品（比如食品，燃油和机械）成本更容易上涨。


This seems right: people around the world can barely afford the rising health-care and school-tuition costs they currently face – costs that seem to increase each year faster than overall inflation.	这看上去挺有道理，因为全球各地的人们都被当前不断上涨的医疗和学费压得喘不过气了——何况其逐年上涨幅度似乎比总体通胀更高。


But a sharp decline in the costs of health care, education, and other services is now possible, thanks to the ongoing information and communications technology (ICT) revolution.	但有赖于当前的信息和通信技术革命，医疗，教育和其他服务的成本将有可能大幅下跌。


The cost of services compared to the cost of goods depends on productivity.	服务成本和商品成本的比较其实取决于生产力。


If farmers become much better at growing food while teachers become little better at teaching kids, the cost of food will tend to fall relative to the cost of education.	如果农民的食品生产能力大幅提高而教师的教育水平只有轻微上升，那么食物成本相对于教育成本来说就会下降。


Moreover, the proportion of the population engaged in farming will tend to fall, since fewer farmers are needed to feed the entire country.	此外参与农业生产的人口也会趋向下降，因为满足全国食品需求所要求的农民数量更少了。


This is the long-term pattern that we’ve seen: the share of the workforce in goods production has declined over time, while the cost of goods has fallen relative to that of services.	我们已经见证了这个长期模式：商品生产者占劳动者总量的比例不断减少，同时商品成本相对于服务成本也有所下降。


In the United States, around 4% of the population in 1950 was employed in agriculture, 38% in industry (including mining, construction, and manufacturing), and 58% in services.	在1950年的美国大概4%的人从事农业，38%从事工业（包括采矿，建筑和制造），58%从事服务业。


By 2010, the proportions were roughly 2%, 17%, and 81%, respectively.	到2010年时上述比例分别转化为约2%，17%和81%。


In the meantime, health-care and tuition costs have soared, along with the costs of many other services.	与此同时，医疗和学费成本大幅飙升，其他服务成本也有所上升。


But a productivity revolution in service-sector delivery is now possible.	但一个服务输送方面的生产力革命如今已经成为可能。


As a professor, I feel it in my own classroom.	作为一名教授，我在自己的课室里感受到了这一点。


Ever since I began teaching 30 years ago, it had seemed that the technology was rather fixed.	自从我30年前走上讲坛以来，教育技术的发展似乎都处于固定状态。


I would stand before a class and give a one-hour lecture.	我要做的就是在学生面前讲一个小时的课。


Sure, the blackboard gave way to an overhead projector, and then to PowerPoint; but, otherwise, the basic classroom “production system” seemed to change little.	虽然黑板让位给了高悬于屋顶的投影仪，随后又被PowerPoint所取代； 但除此之外基本的课堂“生产系统”却似乎没什么改变。


In the past two years, everything has changed – for the better.	在过去两年中所有事情都发生了变化——而且变得更好。


At eight on Tuesday mornings, we turn on a computer at Columbia University and join in a “global classroom” with 20 other campuses around the world.	在星期二早上八点钟，我们在哥伦比亚大学打开一台电脑并加入一个包含了全球20个校区的“全球课堂”。


A professor or a development expert somewhere gives a talk, and many hundreds of students listen in through videoconferencing.	一位教授或者发展专家在某个地点讲课，数千名学生都可以通过视频会议聆听教诲。


Information technology is revolutionizing the classroom and driving down the costs of producing first-rate educational materials.	信息技术正在革新整个课堂并降低了生产第一流教育资源所需的成本。


Many universities are putting their classes online for free, so that anyone in the world can learn physics, math, or economics from world-class faculty.	许多大学将自己的课程免费放上网络，于是世界上任何人都可以从世界级学术机构处学习物理，数学和经济学。


At Stanford University this fall, two computer-science professors put their courses online for students anywhere in the world; now they have an enrollment of 58,000.	在今年秋天斯坦福大学的两位计算机科学教授将自己的课程放上网络； 而选修该课程的学生竟有5.


The same breakthroughs now possible in education can occur in health care.	在教育领域取得的突破同样也可以应用于医疗卫生方面。


The US health-care system is notoriously expensive, partly because many of the key costs are controlled by the American Medical Association and private-sector health-insurance companies, which act like monopolists, driving up costs.	美国的医疗系统以昂贵闻名，其中一部分原因就是其核心成本都被控制在美国医学协会以及私营医疗保险公司手里。


Such monopoly pricing should be ended.	它们利用其垄断地位不断推高成本，而这种垄断定价应当被终结。


Yet there are other reasons for high health-care costs.	另外还有一些造成高医疗成本的原因。


Many people suffer from chronic ailments, such as heart disease, diabetes, obesity, and depression and other mental disorders.	许多人罹患慢性疾病，例如心脏病、糖尿病、肥胖症，抑郁症以及其他精神障碍。


These diseases can be expensive to address if they are poorly managed and treated.	如果不能妥善应对的话，这些疾病将花费巨额成本来医治。


Far too many people end up in the emergency room and the hospital because they lacked the advice and help to keep their conditions under control without institutional care, or even to prevent their disorders entirely.	有太多的人缺乏在不借助医疗机构的情况下控制其病情（甚至可以使其彻底康复）的建议和帮助，最终只能被送到医院的急诊室里。


Now information technology is coming to the rescue.	如今信息科技则伸出了援手。


Innovative companies like CareMore in California are using ICT to keep their clientele healthy and out of the hospital.	类似加利福尼亚州的CareMore这类创新型企业使用信息和通信技术来保证顾客的健康并无需求助医院。


For example, when CareMore’s patients step on the scale at home each day, their weight is automatically transmitted to the health-care unit. If there is a dangerous weight swing, which could be caused by congestive heart failure, the clinic brings the patient in for a quick examination, thereby heading off a potentially devastating crisis.	比如每天CareMore的客户站上自家体重计的时候，他们的体重数据就会自动传送到医疗单元，如果出现了危险的体重变化——可能由充血性心力衰竭所导致——诊所就会安排病人进行一个快速检查，并因此��低发生潜在危险的几率。


These innovative companies’ approaches combine three ideas.	这些创新型企业的服务结合了三大理念。


The first is to use ICT to help individuals monitor their health conditions, and to connect individuals with expert advice.	首先是利用信息和通信技术来协助个人检测自身健康状况，并把这些个体与专业建议之间联系起来。


The second is to empower outreach workers (sometimes called “community health workers”) to provide home-based care in order to prevent more serious illnesses and to cut down on the high costs of doctors and hospitals.	其二则是授权外延工作人员（有时被称为“社区健康工作人员”）来提供以家庭为基础的健康照顾以防治更严重疾病，并以此减少对医生和医院支付的高费用。


The third idea is to recognize that many illnesses arise or become worse because of individuals’ social circumstances.	第三个理念则是认识到许多疾病的产生或者恶化都与个人所处的社会环境有关。


Perhaps the patient is isolated, lonely, suffering from depression, out of work, or facing some other personal or family calamity.	或许病人正处于孤立，孤独，遭受抑郁症折磨，失业或者面对某些个人或者家庭惨剧的境地。


If these social conditions go unaddressed, they may give rise to an expensive, even deadly, medical condition.	如果这些社交状况无法得到解决，那么就可能触发一个昂贵甚至致命的医疗状况。


Smart healthcare is therefore holistic, helping people not only as patients arriving in the emergency room, but also as individuals and family members in their own homes and communities.	因此明智的医疗照顾应该是全方位的，不但帮助那些被送到急诊室的病人，也对那些身处家庭或者社区中的个人和家庭成员予以照顾。


Holistic health care is more humane, effective, and cost-efficient.	全方位健康护理更加人性化，更有效，成本也更低廉。


The ICT revolution provides the means to achieve holistic health care in new and powerful ways.	信息和通信技术革命为实现全方位健康护理提供了新颖且更具效力的手段。


In economic terms, information and communications technologies are “disruptive,” meaning that they will outcompete the existing, more expensive ways of doing things.	从经济学上来说，信息和通信技术是“破坏性的”，这意味着它们将超越那些现有且更昂贵的手段。


Implementing disruptive technologies is never easy.	推广这些破坏性技术从来都是不容易的。


Existing high-cost producers, especially entrenched monopolists, resist.	现存的高成本制造者，尤其是那些树大根深的垄断者们都会做出反抗。


National budgets may continue to favor the old ways.	而国家预算也会继续垂青那些旧有的手段。


Nevertheless, the promise of great cost savings and major advances in service delivery is at hand.	然而，大幅节省成本的前景以及服务传递的重大跃进已经具备。


The world’s economies, rich and poor alike, have much to gain from accelerated innovation in the information age.	世界各经济体，不管穷富，都将在信息时代的加速创新中大大获益。


Learning from Rwanda	卢旺达的启示


GENEVA – How is it that Rwanda, among the world’s poorest countries – and still recovering from a brutal civil war – is able to protect its teenage girls against cancer more effectively than the G-8 countries?	日内瓦——刚刚从一场残酷内战中恢复、仍跻身世界最贫困国家之列的卢旺达究竟是怎样为十几岁的花季少女提供比G-8国家更有效的防癌保护？


After just one year, Rwanda reported vaccinating more than 93% of its adolescent girls against the human papillomavirus (HPV) – by far the largest cause of cervical cancer.	只用了短短一年时间，卢旺达就报告93%以上的少女接种了人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗——HPV病毒是宫颈癌最主要的致病元凶。


Vaccine coverage in the world’s richest countries varies, but in some places it is less than 30%.	全球最富有国家的疫苗接种率虽然不尽相同，但某些地区还不到30%。


In fact, poor coverage in the world’s richest countries should come as no great surprise, especially when one considers the demographics of those missing out.	其实，世界上最富国家接种率不尽人意没有什么奇怪，尤其考虑到没有实现接种的人口分布。


Where available, evidence suggests that they are mainly girls at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum – often members of ethnic minorities with no health-care coverage.	现有证据表明这些女孩大都处在社会经济底层，往往来自没有医疗保障的少数民族。


This implies that those who are at greatest risk are not being protected.	这意味着风险最高的群体却没有得到保护。


It is a familiar story, one that is consistent with the global pattern of this terrible disease, which claims a life every two minutes: those most in need of protection have the least access to it.	这样的状况其实由来已久，而且也与这种每两分钟夺走一条生命的可怕疾病在全球的分布状况相符：那些最需要保护的人却最得不到保护。


Of the 275,000 women and girls who die of cervical cancer every year, 88% live in developing countries, where mortality rates can be more than 20 times higher than in France, Italy, and the United States.	在每年死于宫颈癌的275,000名少女和成年女性中，88%生活在发展中国家，这些国家的死亡率有时比法、意、美等国高出20倍以上。


That is not just because vaccines are not readily available; it is also because women in these countries have limited access to screening and treatment.	这不仅因为没有现成的疫苗，也因为这些国家的女性鲜有机会接受筛查和治疗。


Without prevention, they have no options if they get sick.	因为缺乏预防措施，一旦患病她们就别无选择。


Alarmingly, in some of the wealthy countries, where both screening and treatment should be readily available, vaccine coverage now appears to be declining, raising a real danger that socioeconomically disadvantaged girls there will face a similar fate.	令人担忧的是，在筛查及治疗手段本应更为普及的富国，现在的疫苗接种率也似乎正在下降，从而导致社会经济地位相对弱势的女孩面临着同样的命运。


If it turns out that girls at risk of not receiving all three doses of the HPV vaccine are also those with an elevated risk of being infected and missing cervical screenings as adults, they may be slipping through not one but two nets.	如果事实证明没有条件接种全部三种HPV疫苗的女孩成年后恰恰感染几率更大且没有机会接受宫颈筛查，那么她们失去的可能不仅仅是一种保护。


It is still not clear why this is happening.	造成这种状况的原因目前还不清楚。


What we do know is that HPV is a highly infectious sexually transmitted virus, which is responsible for almost all forms of cervical cancer.	但我们知道HPV是通过性行为传播的感染性很强的病毒，而且差不多是所有宫颈癌背后的元凶。


HPV vaccines can prevent 70% of these cases by targeting the two most common types of the virus, but only if girls have not yet been exposed to the virus, which means vaccinating them before they become sexually active.	针对两种最常见病毒的HPV疫苗可以预防70%的病例，但前提是接种疫苗的少女还没有感染上HPV病毒。 这也就是说必须赶在发生性行为之前为她们接种疫苗。


Yet efforts to communicate this to the public have been met with skepticism from some critics, who argue that the vaccine gives young girls tacit consent to engage in sexual activity, ultimately leading to an increase in promiscuity.	但有些批评者对接种疫苗的宣传持怀疑态度，他们认为疫苗相当于默许年轻女孩从事性行为，并最终加剧滥交现象。


However, quite apart from the evidence to the contrary, intuitively this makes no sense.	但抛开相反的证据不论，单凭直觉也知道这样的指责有多么荒谬。


To suggest that giving girls aged 9-13 three injections over six months gives them a green light to engage in sex and sets them on a path to promiscuity is utter nonsense.	声称在6个月内为9-13岁的女孩注射三针疫苗就是为她们从事性行为开绿灯、把她们引向滥交的道路纯属胡说八道。


It is like saying that people are more likely to drive dangerously if they wear a seat belt; in fact, the opposite is more often the case.	这就好比说如果系安全带人们就更容易危险驾驶； 其实相反的情况却往往更常发生。


Whether such attitudes and misinformation account for poor vaccine coverage in places like France and the US is still not known.	是否因此导致美法等国接种率不尽人意仍然不得而知。


It may simply be that some parents or girls mistakenly believe that one shot of the HPV vaccine is enough to provide protection, or that some socially disadvantaged girls lack sufficient access to in-school vaccination services.	也许仅仅是某些家长或女生误以为接种一针HPV疫苗就可以防止感染，或者是某些弱势女孩无法得到校内接种服务。


Or perhaps the cost of the vaccine is a barrier in some of these countries.	某些国家起阻碍作用的还有可能是疫苗的价格。


Whatever the reason, unless coverage for all three doses increases, cervical cancer and pre-cancer rates will increase.	不管出于什么原因，除非打满三针的人数增加，否则宫颈癌及癌前病变率将持续攀升。


In countries like Rwanda, people know this only too well, which is why they have been so eager to tighten the net on HPV.	卢旺达等国民众对这种情况了如指掌，这也是他们为什么如此急于堵住HPV接种漏洞的原因。


They have seen the horrors of cervical cancer, with women in the prime of their lives presenting with late-stage disease and suffering slow and painful deaths.	他们亲眼目睹了宫颈癌的可怕后果，目睹了年富力强的女性身患晚期癌症，在漫长而痛苦的折磨中走向死亡。


Without changes in prevention and control, deaths from cervical cancer worldwide are projected to rise almost two-fold by 2030, to more than 430,000 per year.	如果预防和控制状况不发生变化，到2030年全球宫颈癌死亡人数预计将增长近2倍，超过430,000人/年的规模。


And now, with help from my organization, the GAVI Alliance, a public-private partnership created to improve access to new vaccines for the world’s poorest children, other low-income countries are following Rwanda’s lead.	现在，在弊组织全球疫苗免疫联盟（GAVI Alliance）的帮助下，提高全球最贫困儿童和其他低收入国家新疫苗接种率的公私伙伴关系正在学习卢旺达的榜样。


As of this year, Ghana, Kenya, Laos, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe have all taken steps to introduce HPV vaccines, with more countries expected to follow.	到今年为止，加纳、肯尼亚、老挝、马达加斯加、马拉维、莫桑比克、尼日尔、塞拉利昂、坦桑尼亚和津巴布韦都已采取措施推广HPV疫苗，后续还有更多国家会迎头赶上。


G-8 countries’ generous contributions to organizations like mine show that they understand the importance of childhood immunization.	G8集团对我所在组织的慷慨捐助表明他们了解儿童免疫接种有多重要。


But, while HPV infection rates may be falling in some of these countries, are they falling fast enough?	可尽管某些G8国家HPV感染率在下降，他们是不是还可以做的更好？


In the US, for example, the G-8 country for which we currently have the most data, infection rates have halved in the six years since the vaccine was first introduced.	比方说我们目前掌握最多数据的G8国家美国，首次引入疫苗以来的六年里感染率已经下降了一半。


Yet failure to reach the 80% coverage mark means that 50,000 American girls alive today will develop cervical cancer, as will another 4,400 girls with each year of delay.	但未能实现接种率80%的目标意味着今天活着的50,000名美国女孩今后将患上宫颈癌，每拖一年还要增加4,400人。


So it is worth remembering that even in wealthy countries, there is an urgent need to overcome challenges in protecting the hardest-to-reach girls, who often are at high risk of HPV infection.	因此我们应当记住即使是富裕国家也急需克服困难，为接种难度最大、往往也最容易感染的女童提供保护。


Overcoming these challenges is essential to reducing cervical cancer and pre-cancer rates in the coming years.	要想降低未来几年宫颈癌及癌前病变的患病率，现有的困难就必须克服。


Rwanda’s success should be the norm, not the exception.	卢旺达的成功应该从特例成为常态。


Set the IMF Free	赋予国际货币基金组织独立权


BRUSSELS – The International Monetary Fund is back in business.	比利时布鲁塞尔——国际货币基金组织的职能再次回到正轨。


During the bubble years, neither its advice nor its money seemed to be needed.	在泡沫经济时期，世界各国似乎对国际货币基金组织的建议和资金置若罔闻。


But now more and more countries need balance-of-payments support, and there is general agreement that the global monetary system needs a body to oversee its overall stability.	但如今越来越多的国家开始寻求国际收支援助，并形成普遍共识：全球货币系统需要一个团体来监督它的全面稳定。


The IMF is the only candidate for this task, but experience has shown that the Fund can fulfill this role only if its governance is reformed.	国际货币基金组织是能担此重任的唯一候选，但经验显示只有国际货币基金组织的管理得到改革，它才能履行这一职责。


Granting balance-of-payments support has important fiscal implications, and it is natural that there should be continuing close oversight by those who ultimately provide the capital – the IMF’s member states.	准予国际收支援助具有重大的财政意义，被那些最终提供资金的国家——国际货币基金组织成员国持续紧密地监督本来就是正常的。


But looking after the stability of the global financial system, including the assessment of exchange-rate policies and global payment imbalances, is a different responsibility.	但是监督全球金融系统的稳定，包括对汇率政策与全球支付不平衡进行评估，是一项完全不同的职责。


For these analytical functions, there is no need for close oversight.	对于这些分析性的职能，就没有必要紧密监督。


On the contrary, independence and professional expertise should be decisive.	相反，独立性和专家意见应该起决定作用。


Thus, a key change should be to distinguish between the IMF’s financial measures and its analytical functions, especially the surveillance of exchange rates and other sources of global financial risk.	因而，一项关键的变革就是区分开国际货币基金组织的金融措施和它的分析性职能之间的差别，尤其是对汇率和其他全球金融风险源头的监督。


The IMF’s Executive Board, which consists exclusively of representatives of member countries, currently runs the Fund’s daily business.	国际货币基金组织理事会，专门由各成员国选派的代表组成，目前管理着国际货币基金组织的日常事务。


The Board thus does not perform oversight functions, but rather serves essentially as an extended Management Board, which delegates the execution of its decisions to the Managing Director and the staff.	因而，理事会不履行监督职能，而是本质上作为一个长期的管理理事会提供服务，管理理事会把它的决策执行任务委托给董事总裁和全体职员办理。


This modus operandi needs to be changed in order to give the IMF the independence it needs if it is to become a credible, impartial judge of balance-of-payments disequilibria and sources of risk to global financial markets.	国际货币基金组织若成为国际收支不平衡和全球金融市场风险源头可靠的、公平的裁判，这个运作形式就需要进行改革，从而赋予国际货币基金组织必需的独立性。


This requisite independence of the IMF staff can be achieved by stipulating that the Board oversees only the work of the Fund’s analytical functions and, more importantly, that its composition and decision-making mode are overhauled in the following ways:	国际货币基金组织职员必需的独立性可通过下面的规定获得：理事会只监督国际货币基金组织分析性的职能工作，并且更重要的是，国际货币基金组织的构成和决策方式受以下规则修订：


- The Executive Board should be enlarged by the addition of several (possibly 3-5) independent members (as in the private sector), and the voting principle should be one person, one vote.	-理事会应该增加若干个（可能3-5个）独立成员扩充规模（如同私营部门那样），并且投票原则应为一人一票的表决制。


The independent board members would constitute only a small minority, but their presence and professional expertise would give them disproportionate weight.	理事会独立成员将只有少数派组成，但他们的出席和专家意见会给予他们不成比例的话语分量。


- Management would be free to take a position on all issues not involving the use of Fund resources, unless it is was explicitly overruled by the expanded board.	-在不涉及使用基金组织财力的前提下，针对所有议题将采取自由抢占位置的管理模式，除非它被扩大的理事会明确否决。


This would give management considerable de facto independence, since under the one person, one vote principle the larger member countries could no longer block issues just because they are politically inconvenient.	这将为管理带来相当实际的独立性，因为在一人一票的原则下，较大的成员国就不能再以他们政治上的不便为由阻碍议题的进程。


For all decisions involving the resources of the Fund (lending to member countries or the size of quotas, etc.), the existing decision-making procedure could remain unchanged.	对于涉及基金组织财力的一切决议（向成员国出借或配额大小等），现有的决策程序可能会保持不变。


All financial decisions would thus continue to be taken by the existing Executive Board, with weighted voting reflecting the financial contributions of member countries.	因此，一切金融决议将继续由现有的理事会裁决，各国投票权的分量由其贡献基金份额的多少决定。


The European Central Bank provides an interesting analogy, because it has two voting procedures, depending on the issue at hand.	欧洲中央银行与国际货币基金组织有些相似之处，因为欧洲央行拥有两种投票程序，采取哪一种取决于手头的议题。


The ECB’s Governing Council comprises the six members of the Executive Board plus the governors/presidents of the 16 national central banks of the eurozone countries.	欧洲央行委员会由6名执行董事会成员和16个欧元国的央行行长共同组成。


The Governing Council takes the really important decisions on monetary policy based on one person, one vote.	欧洲央行委员会基于一人一票的表决制对货币政策采取真正重要的决议。


When the Maastricht Treaty was negotiated, the Germans considered this provision an important concession.	当协商签署《马斯特里赫特条约》之时，德国把此规定视为一个重大让步。


But it is indispensable if the ECB is really to be independent, and if one expects that all members of the Governing Board, particularly the governors of national central banks, base their decisions only on the interests of the entire euro area (and not of their home country).	但如果欧洲央行真能独立的话，并且如果人们期望所有委员会成员，尤其各国央行行长，把他们的决议只建立在整个欧盟利益上的话，它就是绝对必要的。


However, on financial matters (in particular the distribution of profits and losses), the voting rules are different: the Executive Board does not participate and the votes of the national central bank presidents in the Governing Council are weighted by their respective capital shares.	然而，对于金融问题（尤其对于利润和损失），投票规则是不同的：首先执行董事会不会参与，并且委员会各国央行行长的投票权的分量由他们各自认缴的资金份额决定。


When the G-20 leaders meet in London, they should consider giving the IMF the independence it needs to become an effective guardian of global financial stability.  Putting independent experts on this Board will be a key step in that direction.	当G-20峰会的各国领导在伦敦会晤之时，他们应该考虑赋予国际货币基金组织必需的独立性，国际货币基金组织才能成为全球金融稳定的一个有效的监督者。 让独立的专家们加入理事会将是朝向这一目标迈进的关键一步。


Our Debt to Stalingrad	我们亏欠斯大林格勒的


BERKELEY – We are not newly created, innocent, rational, and reasonable beings.	伯克利—我们并不是新生、纯真、理性而公道的生物。


We are not created fresh in an unmarked Eden under a new sun.	我们并不是伊甸园里、新阳光下产生的新新生命。


We are, instead, the products of hundreds of millions of years of myopic evolution, and thousands of years of unwritten and then recorded history.	相反，我们是千万年短视进化的产物，经历了数千年的无文字历史，然后才进入有记录的历史。


Our past has built up layer upon layer of instincts, propensities, habits of thought, patterns of interaction, and material resources.	我们的过去是由本能、习性、思维习惯、互动模式和物质资源一层一层堆积出来的。


On top of this historical foundation, we build our civilization.	在历史基础的最顶端，我们创造了文明。


Were it not for our history, our labor would not just be in vain; it would be impossible.	要不是我们的历史，我们的劳动将是徒劳的； 但这是不可能的。


And there are the crimes of human history.	人类历史也充满着罪行。


The horrible crimes. The unbelievable crimes.	可怕的罪行，不可思议的罪行。


Our history grips us like a nightmare, for the crimes of the past scar the present and induce yet more crimes in the future.	我们的历史如同噩梦般萦绕着我们，过去的罪行在当下留下伤疤，并滋生未来的罪行。


And there are also the efforts to stop and undo the effects of past crimes.	我们也努力阻止和消除过去罪行的影响。


So it is appropriate this month to write not about economics, but about something else.	因此，这个月不太适合写经济，适合写点别的。


Seventy-nine years ago, Germany went mad.	79年前，德国陷入了疯狂。


There was delinquency.	这是犯罪。


There was also history and bad luck.	这也是历史和不走运。


The criminals are almost all dead now.	如今，罪犯几乎已经全部谢世。


Their descendants and successors in Germany have done – and are doing – better than anyone could have expected at grappling with and mastering the nation’s unmasterable past.	他们在德国的后代和继任者比所有人所预想的更好地处理和控制了这个国家不可控制的过去，至今仍在努力。


Seventy years ago, 200,000 Soviet soldiers – overwhelmingly male and predominantly Russian – crossed the Volga River to the city of Stalingrad.	70年前，20万苏联士兵——绝大部分是男人，大部分是俄罗斯人——跨过伏尔加河，来到斯大林格勒。


As members of Vasily Chuikov’s 62nd Army, they grabbed hold of the nose of the Nazi army and did not let go.	这些瓦西里·崔可夫62集团军的战士牵住了纳粹大军的鼻子，让他们无法脱身。