In addition to the sheer range of rent-seeking schemes operating today, lax corporate reporting requirements around the world make it difficult to estimate the scale of the problem.	在当前运作的食利方案的确切影响范围之外，全球各地宽松的企业信息披露规则使人难以估计问题的规模。


Much of the existing research focuses on the US economy, where some studies have measured the growth of dominant firms’ market power through the steep upward trend in mark-up pricing; and others have examined the role of proliferating information technologies in the accumulation of “surplus wealth.”	现有的大部分研究都集中在美国经济上，其中一些研究通过加价定价的陡峭上升趋势去衡量主导企业市场力量的增长； 其他人则研究迅猛发展的信息技术在“剩余财富”积累中的作用。


At the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), our research looks beyond the US economy, relying on a newly constructed database for publicly traded companies in 56 developed and developing countries.	在联合国贸易和发展会议上，我们依靠一个新建立的56个发达和发展中国家上市公司数据库将研究延伸到了美国经济之外。


We used these data to estimate the extent to which large non-financial corporations’ profits exceeded typical annual sectoral profit performance since 1995.	我们使用这些数据来估计大型非金融企业的盈利在多大程度上超过了1995年以来的典型年度部门利润表现。


Surplus profits, we found, rose markedly over the past two decades, from 4% of total profits in 1995-2000 to 23% in 2009-2015.	我们发现，超额收益所占的比例在过去二十年中显着上涨，从1995~2000年的4％升至23~20％。


For the top 100 firms, that share increased from 16% to 40%, on average.	对于位列全球前100强的企业来说，这一份额平均从16％上升到40％。


The same multi-country database also confirms that market concentration has risen significantly over the past two decades, particularly among the top 100 firms.	同样的多国数据库也证实在过去二十年里市场集中度大幅上升，对百强企业尤其如此。


In fact, large inter-firm disparities have become a key feature of the corporate rent-seeking age.	事实上，企业之间的巨大差距已成为企业食利时代的一个重要特征。


In 2015, the top 100 firms had a combined market capitalization (the total value of a company’s outstanding shares) that was 7,000 times that of the bottom 2,000 firms. Twenty years ago, that multiple was just 31.	2015年，前100强企业的合共市值（一家公司的流通股总值）是数据库中排名末尾那2000家企业的7000倍，而二十年前这个数字只有31。


Making matters worse, this trend has not extended to employment.	更糟糕的是，这一趋势并未扩大到就业。


Between 1995 and 2015, the top 100 firms increased their market capitalization fourfold, but did not even double their share of employment.	从1995年到2015年，前100名企业的市值增加了四倍，但其雇佣人数的增长还不到两倍。


This implies that market concentration and corporate rent-extraction are feeding off one another.	这意味着市场集中度和企业食利榨取是相互强化的。


The result is a “winner-takes-most” market environment that strongly disadvantages start-ups, entrepreneurial innovation, and sustained creation of high-quality jobs.	结果造就了一个“赢家拿最多”的市场环境，极大不利于新兴企业，创业创新以及高质量就业机会的持续创造。


Consider, for example, the proliferation of wide-ranging patent-protection powers through bilateral and multilateral trade and investment agreements. These powers have been extended to new activities that were not previously considered areas of technological innovation, such as finance and business methods.	我们以大范围的专利保护力量通过双边和多边贸易和投资协议的扩散为例：这些力量已经扩展到了以前未被认为是技术创新领域的新活动——比如金融和商业方法。


As a result, the tech giants, in particular, have achieved a new level of regulatory capture, allowing them to limit free speech when it serves their interests, expand into non-high-tech markets, and shape emerging global policy agendas, such as financial inclusion and e-commerce.	那些科技巨头以此达到了新的规制俘虏水平，让它们可以为了自身利益去限制言论自由，向非高科技市扩张，并塑造新兴的全球政策议程，例如金融包容性和电子商务。


It is not too late to check the trend toward rentier capitalism.	现在应对迈向食利资本主义的趋势还为时未晚。


The “endogenous” factors contributing to wide-scale regulatory capture and corporate rentierism can be addressed with stronger antitrust legislation, policies to empower organized labor, revisions to existing trade agreements, and better monitoring, at the international level, of transfer pricing and tax evasion.	我们可以通过制定更强有力的反垄断立法，为有组织劳动者赋权的政策，修订现有贸易协定以及在国际层面上更好地监控转让定价和逃税行为来应对助长广泛规制俘虏和企业食利主义的“内生因素”。


Some policymakers have already started to take action on these fronts.	一些政策制定者已经开始在这些方面采取行动。


But success will require a more concerted effort. It is time to force big business back into the business of productive investment and job creation.	但成功需要更加协调一致的努力，现在也是大力回归生产性投资和创造就业的时候了。


The Evolving Independent Economy	变化中的独立经济


BERKELEY – Working full-time for a single employer is no longer the norm in advanced economies.	伯克利—为一位雇主全职工作已不再是发达经济体的常态。


Instead, millions of “independent workers” – self-employed, freelance, or temporary employees – sell their labor, services, and products through digital platforms to numerous employers or clients.	相反，数百万“独立工作者”——个体户、自由职业者或临时工——通过数字平台向众多雇主和客户出售劳动、服务和产品。


The growing share of independent work, which typically entails flexible hours, promises to bring significant aggregate economic gains, by raising labor-force participation rates, increasing the overall number of hours worked, and reducing unemployment.	独立工作比重的上升有望带来巨大的总经济效益。 独立工作通常工作时间十分灵活，它提高了劳动力参与率，增加了总工作时长，也降低了失业。


But the “gig economy” also creates complex new policy challenges in taxation, regulation, and access to social benefits and protections that traditionally have been provided through standard employer-employee relationships.	但“临时经济”（gig economy）也给税收、监管和传统上通过标准雇主-雇员关系提供的社会福利与保护带来了复杂的新政策挑战。


According to a McKinsey Global Institute study, up to 162 million people throughout the United States and the EU-15 are currently engaged in some form of independent work.	据麦肯锡全球研究所（MGI）的研究，在美国和欧盟15国有多大1. 62亿人参与了某种形式的独立工作。


Based on a representative online survey of 8,000 workers in six countries (including the US), McKinsey found that 10-15% of the working-age population relies on independent work for their primary income.	基于六国（包括美国）8,000名工作者的代表性在线调查，麦肯锡发现10—15%的工作年龄人口依靠独立工作获得基本收入。


Another 10-15% – including students, retirees, household caregivers, and those with traditional jobs – take on such work to supplement their income.	另有10—15%——包括学生、退休者、家政工作者和传统岗位工作者——通过独立工作补充收入。


McKinsey’s findings challenge several common beliefs about independent work.	麦肯锡的发现对一些独立工作的常见观念提出了挑战。


First, the independent workforce is not dominated by young people: people under age 25 represent just 25% of independent workers.	首先，独立工作者并非主要为年轻人：25岁以下人群仅占25%。


The independent workforce is also diverse in terms of income level, education, gender, occupation, and industry.	独立工作者的收入水平、教育程度、性别、职业和行业也呈现出多样化。


Moreover, 70-75% of those engaged in independent work do so by choice, rather than out of necessity – a finding that is consistent with the results of other recent studies.	此外，70—75%从事独立工作的人是出于自主选择，而不是出于必须——这一发现与其他最新研究的结果一致。


Indeed, although 40-55% of low-income workers (earning $25,000 or less per year) engage in some independent work, they comprise less than 25% percent of all independent earners.	事实上，尽管40—55%的低收入工人（每年收入25,000美元或以下）会参与一些独立工作，但他们只构成所有独立赚钱者的25%弱。


Only about one-third of survey respondents said they rely on independent work because they cannot find conventional jobs or need supplemental income to make ends meet.	只有大约三分之一的调查受众表示他们是因为找不到常规工作或需要补充收入来满足需求才从事独立工作。


That minority, however, still amounts to a large number of people.	但是，尽管占比很少，所代表的人数仍然很多。


It is estimated that more than 50 million Americans and Europeans are engaged in independent work out of necessity, and more than 20 million rely on independent work as their primary source of income.	据估计，超过5,000万美国人和欧洲人参与非必须的独立工作，超过2,000万人依靠独立工作作为基本收入源。


Many are low-income workers who would otherwise be unemployed.	许多底薪工作者若不从事独立工作就会失业。


This suggests that stronger economic – and, thus, employment – growth would reduce the number of workers engaged in independent work.	这表明，经济增长——从而就业走强将减少参与独立工作的人数。


But, regardless of macroeconomic conditions, independent work is likely to account for a rising share of work in the long run, owing to technological advances and individual preferences.	但是，不管宏观经济环境如何，从长期看独立工作占总工作的比重可能不断上升，原因就在于技术进步和个人偏好。


While digital platforms for independent work are still in the early stages of their development, and are being used by only 15% of independent workers, they are proliferating and expanding rapidly.	尽管为独立工作服务的数字平台仍处于发展早期阶段，并且只被15%的独立工作者使用，但它们正在蓬勃发展，迅速扩张。


McKinsey estimates that 30-45% of the working-age population would prefer to earn an income, whether primary or secondary, from independent work.	麦肯锡估计，30—45%的工作年龄人口将更偏好于从独立工作中获得收入，不论是基本收入还是额外收入。


That trend poses challenges and opportunities for policymakers, workers, and employers.	这一趋势给决策者、工作者和雇主带来了挑战和机遇。


Policymakers need to collect better data on the independent workforce through regular surveys.	决策者需要通过定期调查收集更好的独立工作者的数据。


They must also update how independent workers are categorized, in order to adapt taxation, regulation, and benefits and protections (including anti-discrimination laws and minimum wages) accordingly.	他们还必须随时更新独立工作者的分类，据此调整税收、监管和福利与保护（包括反歧视法和最低工资）。


The policy issues for high-skill professionals acting as independent agents are not the same as those for low-skill workers selling their services through large digital platforms like Uber.	作为独立代理人的高技能职业人士的政策问题与通过优步等大型数字平台出售服务的低技能工作者的政策问题是不同的。


Updating the provision and delivery of benefits may be particularly challenging.	更新条款和提供福利的挑战尤其艰巨。


Some European countries are tackling the issue by creating new classifications of work, with new benefit systems.	一些欧洲国家正在通过建立新的工作归类、制定新福利制度解决这个问题。


British law distinguishes between traditional employees and “workers,” who are entitled to only some employee rights.	英国法律区分传统雇员和“工作者”，后者只能获得部分雇员权利。


In the US, there is a growing interest in a system of portable, pro-rated benefits – such as unemployment and disability insurance and pensions – tied to workers, rather than employers.	在美国，采取与工作者而不是雇主绑定的可转移比例制（pro-rated）福利制度——如失业和残疾保险和退休金——的呼声越来越高。


Another option in the US would be new unions or collective organizations (guilds) of workers, both to negotiate the terms of independent-work contracts and to track and organize benefits for workers who serve many clients and employers.	美国的另一个选择是组成新的工作者工会或集体组织（行会），依靠这两者谈判独立工作合同条款并为为众多客户和雇主服务的工作者提供追踪和组织。


Similar systems are already in place for the construction and entertainment industries.	类似制度在建筑和娱乐等行业已经出现。


Entrepreneurs also have opportunities to create new products and services tailored to the needs of the independent workforce.	企业家也有机会为独立工作者的需要量身定制新产品和服务。


These could include shared office spaces, financial solutions that smooth out income between work assignments, training programs, and the creation of widely recognized credentials to enable independent workers to advance their work and income opportunities.	这些包括共享办公空间、在两份工作之间实现平稳收入流的财务解决方案、培训计划以及提供受到广泛承认的证书以便独立工作者提升工作和收入机会。


Employers, for their part, will need to learn when to rely on internal talent and when to turn to independent workers.	至于雇主，他们需要学会在何时依靠内部人才，何时应该雇用独立工作者。


Many factors will influence that decision, including cost, quality, productivity, and the security of proprietary information.	许多因素都将影响这一决定，包括成本、质量、生产率、自有信息的安全等。


Finally, there is the responsibility of workers themselves to assert more control over their own careers, seeking opportunities and developing differentiated skills to avoid being relegated to a low-wage generalist talent pool or displaced by intelligent machines.	最后，工作者本身有责任掌控自己的事业，寻找机会并开发差异化技能以避免被打入低薪多面手或被智能机器取代。


This may prove to be the most important element of the emerging labor-market transformation: workers are a driving force behind it.	这可能是新兴劳动力市场转变最重要的要素：工作者成为背后的驱动力。


Of course, digital technologies have also played a vital role in facilitating the rise of independent work.	当然，数字技术在便利独立工作崛起方面也起着关键作用。


Digital platforms like Airbnb, Etsy, and Uber have been critical in reducing the friction and increasing the transparency of the markets that support independent work.	Airbnb、Etsy和优步等数字平台在降低摩擦、提高市场透明度以支持独立工作方面起到了关键作用。


And innovation in this area remains robust.	这方面的创新也保持着强势。


But it is these platforms’ users who are really reshaping the labor market.	但这些平台的用户才是真正改变劳动力市场的人。


Aided by digital technologies, they are advancing their own interest in earning more, while benefiting from more flexible working arrangements.	受助于数字技术，他们能够实现赚更多钱的理想，同时也从更灵活的工作安排中获益。


The likely result of this trend will be a shift from the old model of business organization – in which most workers carry out specialized functions for a single employer within a rigid hierarchy – to one centered on lean core organizations that rely on a loose network of external providers for many tasks.	这一趋势的可能结果是旧企业组织模式——大部分工作者在僵化的层级制中为一位雇主提供专业技能——转向以精益核心组织为核心的模式，依靠松散的外部提供者网络完成诸多任务。


Whether this new system is actually good for workers, employers, and economies, however, will depend on how all of the relevant actors address the challenges inherent in the transition.	但是，这一新体系是否真的有利于工作者、雇主和经济取决于所有相关行动方如何解决转型阶段固有的挑战。


Myanmar’s Jihadi Curse	缅甸的圣战诅咒


NEW DELHI – Myanmar’s military has lately been engaged in a brutal campaign against the Rohingya, a long-marginalized Muslim ethnic minority group, driving hundreds of thousands to flee to Bangladesh, India, and elsewhere.	新德里—缅甸军队最近对长期被边缘化的穆斯林少数群体罗兴亚人发动了残暴的战争，使数十万罗兴亚人逃往孟加拉国、印度和其他国家。


The international community has rightly condemned the crackdown.	国际社会谴责缅甸的镇压行为，这是正确的。


But, in doing so, it has failed to recognize that Rohingya militants have been waging jihad in the country – a reality that makes it extremely difficult to break the cycle of terror and violence.	但在这样做的同时，国际社会并没有承认罗兴亚军人一直在缅甸进行圣战——这一现实使得打破恐怖和暴力的恶性循环变得极其困难。


Rakhine State, where most of Myanmar’s Rohingya reside, is attracting jihadists from far and wide.	缅甸罗兴亚人最集中的若开邦吸引着世界各地的圣战分子。


Local militants are suspected of having ties with the Islamic State (ISIS), al-Qaeda, and other terrorist organizations.	本地军人被怀疑与伊斯兰国、基地组织和其他恐怖组织有涉。


Moreover, they increasingly receive aid from militant-linked organizations in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.	此外，他们越来越多地得到沙特阿拉伯和巴基斯坦的军事相关组织的援助。


The main insurgent group – the well-oiled Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, also known as Harakah al-Yaqin – is led by a Saudi-based committee of Rohingya émigrés.	主要叛军集团——组织性很强的阿拉干罗兴亚救世军（Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army），亦称坚定信仰运动（Harakah al-Yaqin）——由位于沙特的罗兴亚流亡委员会领导。


The external forces fomenting insurgent attacks in Rakhine bear considerable responsibility for the Rohingyas’ current plight.	在罗兴亚群体中煽动报复的外部力量对罗兴亚人当前的困境要负很大责任。


In fact, it is the links between Rohingya militants and such external forces, especially terrorist organizations like ISIS, that have driven the government of India, where some 40,000 Rohingya have settled illegally, to declare that their entry poses a serious security threat.	事实上，正是罗兴亚军人和这些外部力量之间的关系，尤其是伊斯兰国等组织，促使印度政府——印度有40,000非法定居的罗兴亚人——宣布罗兴亚人的到来是一个严重的安全威胁。


Even Bangladesh acknowledges Rohingya militants’ external jihadi connections.	即便是孟加拉国也认可罗兴亚军人有来自外部的圣战关系。


But the truth is that Myanmar’s jihadi scourge is decades old, a legacy of British colonialism.	但其实缅甸的圣战行为已经存在了几十年之久，它是英国殖民的遗留问题。


After all, it was the British who, more than a century ago, moved large numbers of Rohingya from East Bengal to work on rubber and tea plantations in then-Burma, which was administered as a province of India until 1937.	毕竟，一百多年前是英国人将来自东孟加拉的大量罗兴亚人迁移到缅甸从事橡胶和茶叶种植工作。 在1937年之前，那里一直是印度的一个省。


In the years before India gained independence from Britain in 1947, Rohingya militants joined the campaign to establish Pakistan as the first Islamic republic of the postcolonial era.	在1947年印度脱离英国独立的前几年中，罗兴亚军人加入了建立后殖民地时代的第一个伊斯兰共和国——巴基斯坦的运动。


When the British, who elevated the strategy of “divide and rule” into an art, decided to establish two separate wings of Pakistan on either side of a partitioned India, the Rohingya began attempting to drive Buddhists out of the Muslim-dominated Mayu peninsula in northern Rakhine.	精于“分而治之”策略的英国人决定分裂后的印度两翼建立两个分开的巴基斯坦，罗兴亚人随之开始驱逐佛教徒离开位于若开邦北部、穆斯林占多数的梅宇（Mayu）半岛。


They wanted the Mayu peninsula to secede and be annexed by East Pakistan (which became Bangladesh in 1971).	他们希望梅宇半岛脱离缅甸，由东巴基斯坦（1971年成为孟加拉国）吞并。


Failure to achieve that goal led many Rohingya to take up arms in a self-declared jihad.	这一目标的失败让许多罗兴亚人拿起武器，自称要进行圣战。


Local mujahedeenbegan to organize attacks on government troops and seize control of territory in northern Rakhine, establishing a state within a state.	本地圣战分子开始组织针对政府军的袭击，夺取若开邦北部的领土控制权，建立了一个国中之国。


Just months after Myanmar gained independence in 1948, martial law was declared in the region; government forces regained territorial control in the early 1950s.	1948年缅甸独立后不出几个月，便宣布该地区戒严； 政府军在20世纪50年代初夺回了领土控制权。


But Rohingya Islamist militancy continued to thrive, with mujahedeen attacks occurring intermittently.	但罗兴亚伊斯兰军人势力不减，圣战袭击时常发生。


In 2012, bloody clashes broke out between the Rohingya and the ethnic Rakhines, who feared becoming a minority in their home state.	2012年，罗兴亚人和若开族之间爆发流血冲突。 若开族担心在故土沦为少数。


The sectarian violence, in which rival gangs burned down villages and some 140,000 people (mostly Rohingya) were displaced, helped to transform the Rohingya militancy back into a full-blown insurgency, with rebels launching hit-and-run attacks on security forces.	在这场宗派暴力中，对立双方互相烧毁村庄，140,000人（大部分是罗兴亚人）流离失所，这促使罗兴亚军人再次揭竿而起，叛军对缅甸安全部队发动了游击战。


Similar attacks have lately been carried out against security forces and, in some cases, non-Rohingya civilians, with the violence having escalated over the last 12 months.	最近也有针对安全部队的类似袭击，有时候非罗兴亚平民也成为袭击对象，而在过去12个月中，暴力不断升级。


Indeed, it was a wave of coordinated predawn insurgent attacks on 30 police stations and an army base on August 25 that triggered the violent military offensive that is driving the Rohingya out of Rakhine.	事实上，引发大量罗兴亚人逃离若开邦的暴力军事打击的原因，是8月25日拂晓罗兴亚叛军对30个警署和一座军事基地发动了有组织攻击。


Breaking the cycle of terror and violence that has plagued Myanmar for decades will require the country to address the deep-seated sectarian tensions that are driving Rohingya toward jihadism.	打破困扰了缅甸几十年之久的恐怖和暴力的循环需要缅甸解决好深刻的宗派紧张。 宗派紧张是将罗兴亚人推向圣战的原因。


Myanmar is one of the world’s most ethnically diverse countries.	缅甸是全世界民族多样性最大的国家之一。


Its geographic position makes it a natural bridge between South and Southeast Asia, and between China and India.	它的地理位置决定了它是南亚和东南亚，以及中国和印度之间的天然桥梁。


But, internally, Myanmar has failed to build bridges among its various ethnic groups and cultures.	但从内部看，缅甸并没有在其众多族群和文化之间建立起桥梁。


Since independence, governments dominated by Myanmar’s Burman majority have allowed postcolonial nativism to breed conflict or civil war with many of the country’s minority groups, which have complained of a system of geographic apartheid.	自独立以来，政府由占多数的缅族垄断，这导致后殖民地时代本土主义于众多少数族群爆发冲突和内战，少数族群抱怨缅甸采取了地理种族隔离（geographic apartheid）制度。


The Rohingya face the most extreme marginalization.	罗兴亚人所面临的边缘化最为严重。


Viewed as outsiders even by other minorities, the Rohingya are not officially recognized as one of Myanmar’s 135 ethnic groups.	即使从其他少数群体的外部视角看，罗兴亚人至今没有被官方承认为缅甸135个民族之一。


In 1982, the government, concerned about illegal immigration from Bangladesh, enacted a law that stripped the Rohingya of their citizenship, leaving them stateless.	1982年，缅甸政府因为担心来自孟加拉国的非法移民，实施了一部剥夺罗兴亚人公民权的法律，这使得罗兴亚人沦为无国之族。


Successive governments have defended this approach, arguing that past secessionist movements indicate that the Rohingya never identified as part of the country.	后续缅甸政府都捍卫这一方针，认为过去的脱离运动表明罗兴亚人从未自认为缅甸的一部分。


And, in fact, the common classification of Rohingya as stateless “Bengalis” mirrors the status of Rohingya exiles in the country of their dreams, Pakistan, where tens of thousands took refuge during the Pakistani military genocide that led to Bangladesh’s independence.	事实上，一般将罗兴亚人归为无国籍“孟加拉人”的归类反映了罗兴亚人在他们的梦想之国巴基斯坦的地位。 在巴基斯坦，数十万罗兴亚人在导致孟加拉国独立的巴基斯坦军事种族灭绝中沦为难民。


Still, the fact is that Myanmar’s failure to construct an inclusive national identity has allowed old ethnic rivalries to continue to fuel terrorism, stifling the resource-rich country’s potential.	尽管如此，事实是缅甸没能构建包容的国家身份导致了昔日的民族对立一直在助长恐怖主义，损害了这个资源丰富的国家的潜力。


What Myanmar needs now is an equitable, federalist system that accommodates its many ethnic minorities, who comprise roughly a third of the population, but cover half of the total land area.	缅甸现在需要一个平等的联邦制度，调和其众多少数族裔（占人口的三分之一，但只占总领土面积的一半）。


To this end, it is critical that Myanmar’s military immediately halt human-rights abuses in Rakhine.	在这方面，缅甸军方立刻停止在若开邦的侵犯人权的行为至关重要。


It will be impossible to ease tensions if soldiers are using disproportionate force, much less targeting civilians; indeed, such an approach is more likely to fuel than quell violent jihadism.	如果缅甸士兵滥用武力甚至将枪口对准平民，缓和紧张局势就无从谈起； 事实上，这样的方针更有可能助长而不是平息暴力圣战。


But as the international community pressures Myanmar’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi to take stronger action to protect the Rohingya, it is also vital to address the long history of Islamist extremism that has contributed to the ethnic group’s current plight.	但在国际社会施压缅甸实际领导人昂山素季采取更积极的行动保护罗兴亚人的同时，解决导致罗兴亚群体当前困境的长期存在的伊斯兰极端主义也很关键。


Gimme Shelter From Dictatorship	给我一个独裁庇护所


NEW YORK – Following US President Barack Obama’s trailblazing visit to Cuba, a free concert by the Rolling Stones in Havana might seem like a relatively minor event.	纽约—在美国总统奥巴马开拓性地访问古巴后，滚石乐队在哈瓦那举行的免费音乐会看起来相对而言就算不上什么大事了。


Obama revived relations with Cuba after more than a half-century of deep hostility.	奥巴马在半个多世纪的深度敌对后重新开启了美国和古巴的关系。


The septuagenarian Stones just played some very loud music.	而年逾古稀的滚石乐队成员只不过是表演了几首吵吵闹闹的音乐。


And yet, symbolically, the concert was not minor at all.	但是，从象征意义上说，滚石音乐会绝不是小事。


To grasp the importance of the Stones’ performance in front of hundreds of thousands of adoring Cubans, one has to understand what rock and roll meant to people living under Communist dictatorships.	要理解滚石在数十万狂热的古巴“粉丝”面前表演的重要性，你必须先理解对于共产党独裁统治下的人民来说摇滚乐意味着什么。


In the 1970s, for example, Czechoslovakia, like other Communist states, was a dreary, oppressive, joyless place, where mediocre party hacks set the tone, and creativity was stifled under a blanket of enforced conformism.	比如，20世纪70年代，和其他共产主义国家一样，捷克斯洛伐克是一个沉闷、压抑、毫无乐趣可言的地方，平庸的党的御用文人决定着基调，创造力被强制的因循守旧所压制。


Rock and roll was considered a noxious form of capitalist decadence.	摇滚乐被认为是有毒的资本主义堕落形式。


A local rock band named Plastic People of the Universe, performing in English, was arrested in the late 1970s for “organized disturbance of the peace.”	20世纪70年代末，一个叫宇宙塑料人（Plastic People of the Universe）的用英语演出的本地摇滚乐队因为“有组织地破坏和平”而被捕。


Recordings by the Rolling Stones and other Western groups were banned.	滚石和其他西方团体的唱片是被禁止的。


And yet records were smuggled into Czechoslovakia and other Eastern European countries, where they were treasured by young rock fans, including the dissident playwright Václav Havel, who would later become the country’s president.	但是唱片通过走私进入捷克斯洛伐克和其他东欧国家，被年轻的摇滚迷奉为圭臬，包括异见剧作家、日后成为国家总统的瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔。


The forbidden sounds – loud, anarchic, sexy – offered an escape from the drabness of a tightly policed normality.	被禁止的声音——响亮、无政府、性感——给人们提供了一个摆脱严格的监控常态（policed normality）的枯燥的方法。


Rock and roll allowed people to imagine what it would be like to be free, if only for fleeting moments.	摇滚乐让人们想象自由是怎样的，虽然为时短暂。


For that reason, the authorities viewed it as profoundly subversive.	因此，当局将摇滚乐视为洪水猛兽。


Rock fans in Western democracies listened to groups like the Rolling Stones, the Velvet Underground, or Frank Zappa’s Mothers of Invention, for pleasure.	西方民主国家的摇滚迷听滚石、地下丝绒（Velvet Underground）和弗兰克·扎帕的发明母亲（Frank Zappa’s Mothers of Invention）等乐队是为了找乐子。


There was a certain amount of political bluster among rock stars, to be sure, but this was widely regarded as frivolous posturing.	诚然，摇滚明星中是有一些政治大嘴巴，但这被广泛认为是轻浮的姿态。


Not in countries like Czechoslovakia, where the music – more than the posturing – was an expression of serious rebellion.	而捷克斯洛伐克等国家则不同，在那里，音乐表达的是一种严重的叛逆——甚至比姿态还要严重。


Indeed, the defense of the Plastic People of the Universe became a public cause for dissidents like Havel, ultimately giving rise to Czechoslovakia’s Charter 77 movement.	事实上，为宇宙塑料人乐队辩护成为哈维尔的异见者的公益事业，最终带来了捷克斯洛伐克的77宪章运动。


When Havel offered Zappa an official role in his democratic government after the Communist regime had fallen, Zappa was as astonished as everyone else.	共产主义政权倒台后，哈维尔在他的民主政府中给扎帕提供了一个职位，对此扎帕和其他所有人一样震惊。


But it showed how much his music had meant to people like Havel, when they had to listen to it secretly, risking arrest.	但这说明了在必须担着被捕的风险偷偷听音乐的时代，他的音乐对哈维尔这样的人具有多大的意义。


The role of rock music in countries behind the Iron Curtain was beautifully dramatized in Tom Stoppard’s 2006 play Rock ‘n’ Roll, in which a Havel-like character, named Ferdinand (after characters of the same name in Havel’s own plays), extolls the music as a supreme form of political resistance.	摇滚乐对于铁幕之后的国家的作用淋漓尽致地展现在汤姆·斯托帕德（Tom Stoppard）2006年的剧目《摇滚》（Rock ‘n’ Roll）中。 该剧中有一个叫做费迪南德的哈维尔式的人物（这个名字来自哈维尔本人剧作中的同名人物），他将摇滚乐赞颂为政治抵抗的最高形式。


Other people in the play scoff at this notion, treating musical subversion as trivial.	剧中的其他人物对这一概念嗤之以鼻，对音乐颠覆（musical subversion）等闲视之。


Stoppard, like Havel, clearly doesn’t agree.	和哈维尔一样，斯托帕德显然不这么看。


The play ends with the Rolling Stones’ historic concert in Prague in 1990.	该剧以滚石乐队1990年历史性的布拉格音乐会为结尾。


Rock is ecstatic music.	摇滚是激情音乐。


Ecstasy allows people to let go of themselves.	摇摆（ecstasy）让人们放纵自己。


This is not always benign.	这并非总是良性的。


Mass hysteria at Nazi rallies was a form of ecstasy too.	纳粹崛起时期的群众歇斯底里也是摇摆的一种。


So is the behavior of soccer crowds, which can sometimes turn violent.	有时会演变为暴力的足球观众行为亦然。


I once witnessed a group of highly respectable Singaporeans letting go of themselves in an evangelical church service.	我曾经目睹一群尊贵的新加坡人在一次福音派教会活动中放纵自己。


Urged on by an excited Japanese preacher, men in grey suits started writhing on the floor, foaming at the mouth, and jabbering nonsense.	在一位兴奋的日本牧师的带动下，这些身穿会西装的男人开始在地板上扭动身子，口吐白沫，喋喋不休地胡言乱语。


It was not an edifying spectacle.	这不是一个有益的奇观。


In fact, it was frightening.	事实上，这令人害怕。


But the Japanese preacher was not wrong to claim that people – especially, as he put it to his congregation, buttoned-up Japanese and Singaporeans – sometimes need a relief from everyday conformity.	但日本牧师声称人——特别是他所面临的教众，沉默寡言的日本人和新加坡人——有时需要从日常的服从中解脱。 他说的没错。


Music-induced ecstasy is not the same as speaking in tongues in a religious frenzy.	音乐引起的摇摆可不是宗教狂热中的胡言乱语。


But the experiences are related.	但它们的体验是有关系的。


That is why official guardians of social order are so often eager to ban such practices.	因此，官方卫道士和社会秩序常常渴望禁止这些活动。


Indeed, as far back as 380 BC, Plato warned against departing from traditional forms of music.	事实上，早在公元前380年，柏拉图就警告不要脱离传统形式的音乐。


Musical innovation, he wrote in The Republic, and especially exciting new sounds, were a danger to the polis.	他在《理想国》中写道，音乐创新，特别是令人兴奋的新声音，对于城邦是危险的。


He believed that lawlessness began with unorthodox kinds of musical entertainment, and advised the authorities to put a stop to such things.	他认为无法性（lawlessness）始于非正统音乐娱乐，并建议当局取缔这些东西。


Last month, Mick Jagger told his Cuban fans in Spanish that “finally the times are changing.”	上个月，米克·贾格尔（Mick Jagger）用西班牙语告诉他的古巴粉丝，“时代终于正在变化”。


Perhaps they are.	也许确实如此。


Obama struck a similar note in his farewell speech in Havana.	奥巴马在其哈瓦那告别演说中也说了同样的话。


He spoke about a new era, “a future of hope.”	他谈到了一个新时代，“一个希望的未来”。


He told Raúl Castro, the stiff-legged Cuban strongman, who is more than a decade older than Jagger and almost three decades older than Obama, that he should not fear freedom of speech.	他告诉腿脚僵硬（stiff-legged）古巴强人、比贾格尔大十岁、比奥巴马大近三十岁的劳尔·卡斯特罗，他不应该害怕言论自由。


These are fine words.	这些都是漂亮话。


But real political freedom in Cuba may be slow to come.	但古巴的真正的政治自由可能姗姗来迟。


And the example of China shows that individual hedonism can be successfully combined with political authoritarianism.	而中国的例子表明，个人享乐主义可以成功地与政治极权主义结合起来。


(The Stones have already played in Shanghai, even though the Chinese authorities insisted on vetting their songs.)	（滚石乐队已经在上海演出过，尽管中国当局坚持要审查曲目。 ）


But it is a start.	但这是一个开始。


Rock and roll has officially come to Cuba.	摇滚乐正式来到古巴。


Jagger paid proper respect to Cuba’s own ecstatic musical traditions.	贾格尔对古巴自身的摇摆音乐传统给予了合适的尊重。


Cubans already know how to dance.	古巴人已经知道如何跳舞。


The next, much bigger step is for the autocrats to get off the floor.	接下来，更大的步子是独裁者要到舞台上来。


The Iranian Opportunity	伊朗机会


MADRID – Last week, the people of Iran decided to continue along the path toward openness.	马德里—上周，伊朗人民决定继续沿着开放的道路走下去。


Fifty-seven percent of voters chose to elect the reformist President Hassan Rouhani to a second term.	百分之五十七的选民选择了改革派总统鲁哈尼，鲁哈尼成功连任。


The rest of the world should welcome Rouhani’s victory as an opportunity further to improve relations with a country that is central to progress toward a more peaceful Middle East.	世界其他国家应该欢迎鲁哈尼的胜选，把它看成是进一步改善与这个作为中东和平进程核心的国家的关系的机会。


By winning more than 50% of the vote, Rouhani avoided a second round of voting, just as he did four years ago when he claimed the presidency for the first time.	鲁哈尼赢得了50%以上的选票，因此不必进行第二轮投票，四年前他第一次当选总统时情况也是如此。


But, unlike in 2013, when his overwhelming victory was a major surprise, most observers considered Rouhani the clear favorite this time around.	但与2013年不同，当时他压倒性获胜着实是一个大惊喜，而这一回，许多观察者都把鲁哈尼当成明确的大热门。


After all, every Iranian president since 1981 has served two terms in office.	毕竟，1981年以来，每一位上台的伊朗总统都能执政两个任期。


Rouhani’s triumph was likely, but the vote was no mere formality.	鲁哈尼的胜利可谓水到渠成，但投票绝非例行公事。


His main opponent, the hardline conservative Hojatoleslam Ebrahim Raisi, campaigned hard – and had Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, implicitly in his corner.	他的反对者、强硬保守派莱西（Hojatoleslam Ebrahim Raisi）竞选声势浩大，并有伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的间接“加持”。


Rouhani’s victory has proven once again that the candidate closest to the supreme leader is not guaranteed victory.	鲁哈尼的胜利再次证明，与最高领袖关系最近的候选人并不一定就能赢得胜利。


The stakes of this election were particularly high.	此次选举关系十分重大。


Iran is at a pivotal moment in its history – and, as the long lines of citizens eager to cast their votes clearly showed, Iranians know it.	伊朗正处在历史的关键节点上——而排着长队渴望投出选票的公民清楚地表明，伊朗人民深知这一点。


Indeed, despite the Iranian regime’s lack of transparency, Khamenei’s health problems are public knowledge.	事实上，尽管伊朗体制缺少透明度，但哈梅内伊的健康问题早已众人皆知。


Khamenei himself recently admitted that the probability that his successor should be named in the near future was “not low.”	哈梅内伊本人最近承认，应该尽快指定他的继承人的可能性“不低”。


The matter of who occupies the presidency during that transition is certainly not inconsequential.	谁在过渡期间当总统，这绝不是一件小事。


With Khamenei having served as president before rising to Iran’s highest political and religious leadership position, it is easy to see that the conservative candidate Raisi, had he been elected, could have become Khamenei’s successor.	哈梅内伊在升任伊朗最高政治和宗教领袖之前曾经担任过总统，因此，很容易看出，如果保守派候选人莱西当选，就很有可能成为哈梅内伊的继承人。


Rouhani’s decisive victory, however, may have diminished Raisi’s chances substantially.	而鲁哈尼的决定性胜利可能大大降低莱西接班的机会。


Iran’s prospects look quite different with Rouhani in charge.	在鲁哈尼的领导下，伊朗有了大不相同的前景。


His rhetoric about openness is not mere political posturing.	他的开放言论不仅仅是政治姿态。


Perhaps the strongest evidence of this is the nuclear deal that he struck with six countries – China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States – and the European Union in 2015.	也许这方面最有力的证据便是2015年他与六国——中国、法国、德国、俄罗斯、英国和美国——和欧盟达成的核协议。


That agreement placed very strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program, in exchange for relief from crippling economic sanctions imposed by the US, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council.	这一协议严格地限制了伊朗的核计划，换取美国、欧盟和联合国安理会放松令人窒息的经济制裁。


To be sure, Iran’s president is subordinate to the Supreme Leader.	诚然，伊朗总统只是最高领袖的下属。


And, indeed, the nuclear agreement could not have been reached without Khamenei’s approval, which helps explain why no candidate questioned the deal during the campaign.	而事实上，如果没有哈梅内伊的首肯，核协议也不可能达成，这也解释了为何在竞选期间没有获选人质疑核协议。


Nonetheless, the president does wield significant authority, including over domestic policy, which was the main focus of the campaign (as is usually the case in Iran).	尽管如此，总统也确实拥有巨大的权力，包括内政权，而国内政策也是竞选的主要焦点（在伊朗这是惯例）。


In particular, Rouhani and Raisi attempted to distinguish themselves by their very different interpretations of the nuclear agreement’s domestic economic impact.	特别是，对于核协议的国内经济影响，鲁哈尼和莱西有着截然不同的解读，他们希望通过这样来区分彼此。


Rouhani credited the agreement with jump-starting economic growth, which now stands at around 7% annually.	鲁哈尼称赞该协议大大推动了伊朗经济增长，目前增长率高达每年7%左右。


His detractors, however, claimed that this growth mainly reflected higher oil exports, and pointed out that it has not trickled down to all levels of society, leaving many Iranian households still suffering from poverty and unemployment.	但他的对手声称增长主要是石油出口提高带来的，并指出增长没有惠及全体人民，许多伊朗家庭仍然饱受贫困和失业折磨。


Khamenei, too, has been very critical of Rouhani’s economic policy, calling for a much more autarkic approach.	哈梅内伊也对鲁哈尼的经济政策大加批评，要求他加强自力更生。


But Rouhani’s interpretation of Iran’s challenges is far more convincing.	但鲁哈尼对伊朗所面临的挑战的解读更加令人信服。


Increased openness has, in fact, greatly benefited Iran.	加强开放确实给伊朗带来了巨大的收益。


What is holding the country back are the remaining barriers surrounding its economy, including Iran’s isolation from the global financial system, which contributes to a chronic and damaging shortage of credit.	阻止伊朗前进的是仍然存在的壁垒，包括伊朗孤立于全球金融体系之外，这导致伊朗信用长期短缺，深受其害。


The bad news is that US President Donald Trump, who opposed the nuclear deal during his campaign, and the Republican-dominated US Congress have taken a hardline stance toward Iran, and are discouraging investment in the country.	坏消息是美国总统特朗普——他在竞选期间反对核协议——和共和党把持的美国国会对伊朗采取强硬立场，阻挠对伊投资。


This gives political succor to those who accuse Rouhani of being naive to hope that the international community would welcome a more open Iran.	这给了指责鲁哈尼天真地指望国际社会会欢迎更开放的伊朗的人有了政治口实。


Among these skeptics are the conservatives Raisi represented, who regard the West with suspicion.	这些怀疑派中就包括莱西所代表的保守派，他们对西方充满了狐疑。


Had Raisi won, mutual distrust between the US and Iran could well have boiled over, despite Raisi’s stated support for the nuclear deal.	如果莱西获胜，美国和伊朗的互不信任很可能会“炸锅”，尽管莱西声称支持核协议。


Rouhani’s victory, however, might help temper the Trump administration’s anti-Iran rhetoric.	但鲁哈尼的胜利也许有利于缓和特朗普政府的反伊论调。


Just a few weeks ago, in fact, the administration was forced to admit that Rouhani is fulfilling its part of the nuclear deal.	事实上，几周前特朗普政府被迫承认鲁哈尼在履行核协议。


Indeed, Iranians’ show of popular support for Rouhani provides the best guarantee that the spirit behind the nuclear deal will remain unchanged.	事实上，伊朗群众支持鲁哈尼是核协议精神保持不变的最好保证。


But Trump won’t make it easy for Rouhani.	但特朗普不会让鲁哈尼轻松取得成功。


In order to ensure that Iran continues progressing toward international engagement – thereby protecting a nuclear agreement that Trump is not eager to defend – Rouhani’s government will have to work hard to improve relations with neighboring countries.	为了确保伊朗继续加强国际参与——从而保护特朗普并不热心的核协议——鲁哈尼政府需要努力改善与邻国的关系。


Moreover, it will need to adopt a more constructive position vis-à-vis the Syrian conflict, making it clear that Iran is not spearheading a Shia liberation movement.	此外，鲁哈尼政府还需要在叙利亚冲突问题上采取更具建设性的立场，明确表示伊朗没有挂帅什叶派解放运动。


On the day Iranians went to the polls, Trump was making his way to Saudi Arabia – a remarkable choice for his first official foreign trip.	伊朗人民走向投票箱的那天，特朗普也启程前往沙特阿拉伯——这是他的首次正式外访，选择的目的地令人瞩目。


Let us hope that his brief visit to the Middle East helps to create favorable conditions for progress toward peace in the region.	那么，让我们希望他对中东的短暂访问有助于为中东和平进程创造有利条件。


Iran has sent a powerful signal on that front.	伊朗已经释放出强有力的信号。


It is an opportunity that should not be squandered.	这是一个不容浪费的机会。


Europe’s Rule-of-Law Crisis	欧洲的法治危机


BRUSSELS – From the rubble of two world wars, European countries came together to launch what would become the world’s largest experiment in unification and cooperative, shared sovereignty.	发自布鲁塞尔——在两次世界大战的废墟之上，欧洲国家走到了一起，启动了世界上最庞大的一场关于统一合作以及主权共享的试验。


But, despite its impressive achievements over the decades, the European project now risks disintegration.	但尽管在过去几十年间取得了骄人成就，该项目如今却面临着解体的风险。


An unresolved financial crisis, a refugee crisis, a deteriorating security environment, and a stalled integration process have created throughout Europe a toxic, unstable political environment in which populism and nationalism thrive.	一场悬而未决的金融危机，一场难民危机，日益恶化的安全环境，以及停滞不前的一体化进程令整个欧洲陷入了一种有害且极不稳定的政治环境中，而民粹主义和民族主义则在其上肆意滋长。


Perhaps the clearest manifestation of this is the erosion of the rule of law in the European Union.	而在这方面最明显的表现或许就是法治原则在欧盟的日益被腐蚀。


Two EU members in particular, Hungary and Poland, are now jeopardizing hard-won European democratic norms – and thus undermining the very purpose of European integration.	尤其是匈牙利和波兰这两个欧盟成员国正在破坏来之不易的欧洲民主规范——从而削弱了推动欧洲一体化的最核心理念。


In Hungary, liberal-democratic values have come under systematic attack from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government.	在匈牙利，自由民主的价值观遭到了总理维克托·欧尔班（Viktor Orbán）政府的系统破坏。


Since his return to the premiership in 2010, Orbán has committed Hungary to an authoritarian nationalist path, and he has exploited the refugee crisis to cement a “siege mentality” that helps him sustain popular support.	自2010年重夺总理之位后，欧尔班牵着这个国家走上了专制民族主义道路，他还利用难民危机进一步巩固了民众的“围城心态”并以此维持支持率。


In the process, fundamental rights have been ignored, media freedom has been curbed, refugees have been demonized, and Orbán is doing everything in his power to weaken the EU.	在这个过程中，基本权利都被无视，媒体自由遭到打压，难民被悉数妖魔化，而欧尔班则在竭尽全力削弱欧盟。


Attempts by EU institutions to convince Orbán to change course have only emboldened him to commit further outrages against democratic norms.	欧盟各机构试图说服欧尔班改弦易辙，却只能让他在破坏民主规范的邪路上越走越远。


Meanwhile, a democratic crisis has emerged in Poland as well, starting last October, when the Law and Justice (PiS), a Euroskeptic party that also opposes immigration, secured an outright parliamentary majority by promising to implement populist economic policies and “put Poland first.”	同时，去年10月以来波兰也爆发了一场民主危机，一个反对移民的，名为法律与正义（Law and Justice）的欧洲怀疑主义政党通过承诺推行民粹主义经济政策和“波兰优先”的口号锁定了议会多数席位。


Yet, since the election, PiS has launched a series of attacks on the Polish constitution itself.	然而自选举以来，该党已经对波兰宪法体系本身发动了一连串攻击。


Government legislation aimed at reforming Poland’s Constitutional Court has been condemned by the Court itself and the European democracy watchdog, the Venice Commission.	旨在改革波兰宪法法庭的政府立法已经遭到了法院本身以及欧洲民主监督机构威尼斯委员会的谴责。


The government has effectively precluded the Court from ruling on the constitutionality of legislation.	然而政府却成功剥夺了宪法法庭裁决该立法是否违宪的资格。


This weakens a key pillar of the democratic rule of law – and thus is highly problematic for Poland and Europe alike.	这相当于削弱了民主法治的一个关键支柱——并因此为波兰和欧洲埋下了重大祸根。


Hungary and Poland are the leading edge of a far-right agenda that has taken hold throughout Europe, pursued by parties that are exploiting the political vacuum created by the EU’s failure to address the financial and refugee crises.	匈牙利和波兰只是一场已经在全欧站稳了脚跟的极右翼议程的前锋，而该议程则被那些利用欧盟未能解决金融和难民危机而产生的政治真空的政党所推动。


So how can the tables be turned?	那么怎样才能把局面扭转开来？


In democratic countries, it is vital that democracy’s enemies be fought with democratic means.	在民主国家，一个重要原则是必须用民主手段来打击民主的敌人。


It is vital that the outside world impress on the Hungarian and Polish people themselves that in a globalized world, nationalism offers only false security and economic irrelevance.	外界必须让匈牙利和波兰人民自己意识到，在一个全球化的世界里民族主义只能提供虚假的安全感且无助于经济复苏。


Both countries, at the heart of Europe, have profited enormously in every sense from EU membership; they must not throw away their opportunity to make further progress.	这两个位于欧洲心脏地区的国家本已因欧盟成员国身份而获得了方方面面的巨大好处； 也绝不应丢掉取得进一步发展的机遇。


Hungarians and Poles rejected international isolation in 1989.	匈牙利人和波兰人在1989年时分别摆脱了自身的国际孤立局面。


After the fall of the Iron Curtain, both countries became staunch NATO allies even before they joined the EU.	在铁幕倒塌后，这两个国家在尚未加入欧盟之前就已经成为了铁杆北约盟国。


The geopolitical and security arguments for European unity are overwhelming, and there can be no united Europe without Hungary and Poland.	对于欧洲统一的地缘政治和安全论述已经汗牛充栋，但如果没有匈牙利和波兰的参与，就不可能有统一的欧洲。


But all of us, and in particular the peoples of Hungary and Poland, must remember that NATO, like the EU, was founded on the fundamental principles of democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of law.	但是我们所有人（尤其是匈牙利和波兰人民）必须牢记的是：北约跟欧盟一样构建于民主，个人自由和法治的基本原则之上。


A government that flouts those principles jeopardizes the coherence and solidarity of the alliance.	任何蔑视这些原则的政府都损害了联盟的统一和团结。


It is therefore vital that the United States and other NATO allies speak out now and insist that functioning democratic checks and balances are safeguarded.	因此至关重要的是美国及其他北约盟国必须立刻表态并保障一个民主制衡体制的合理运行。


It would be unimaginable for NATO heads of state to go ahead with their planned leadership summit in Warsaw in June if Poland remains in its constitutional crisis, with the government disregarding the rule of law and the opinion of a respected international body.	如果波兰宪法危机延续下去的话，我们无法想象北约首脑们将如何在6月按计划于华沙召开领袖峰会，因为该国政府漠视法治且根本不尊重这一重要国际机构的意见。


Hungarians and Poles must be reminded that Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively attempting to divide and weaken the EU and NATO.	另外必须提醒匈牙利人和波兰人的一点是俄罗斯总统普京一直在积极试图分裂和削弱欧盟和北约。


If Europe is to face down aggression from the Kremlin, it is essential that Poland and Hungary adhere to these groups’ fundamental values and principles.	如果欧洲想要挫败克里姆林宫的侵略行径的话，波兰和匈牙利就必须遵守这些群体的基本价值观和原则。


But it is also necessary that the EU itself develop a more comprehensive mechanism for safeguarding the rule of law within the Union.	但是欧盟本身也有必要制定一个更全面的机制来维护联盟内部的法治。


The EU has mechanisms to regulate economic policies, safeguard the environment, and police the Single Market.	欧盟已经拥有调节经济政策，保护环境，和维护单一市场的机制，但欧盟一直以来都不仅仅是一个经济方案；


But Europe has always been much more than an economic project; it is also a union of values, which no member can be allowed to repudiate without consequence.	它同时也是价值观的联盟，没有任何成员可以无视这一点并全身而退。


Governments are created and fall apart, and politicians come and go; but democratic institutions should be spared from political interference.	政府连年更替，政客你方唱罢我登场； 而民主机构应被排除于政治干预之外。


The sad reality is that, were they to apply for EU membership today, neither Hungary nor Poland would be admitted.	但可悲的现实是，如果是今天申请加入欧盟的话，无论是匈牙利还是波兰都不会得到批准。


Their people should weigh carefully what that means.	他们的人民应该仔细掂量这意味着什么。


Their current leaders claim to be defending national interests. But is it really in their countries’ interest to be sidelined by the US, NATO, and the rest of Europe?	他们当前的领导人声称自己正在保卫国家利益，但如果真的被美国，北约和欧洲其他国家的晾在一边，难道就真的符合他们国家的利益吗？


Guilty Man	罪人


NEW YORK – In 1940, with Britain standing alone against Nazi Germany, a short book called Guilty Men was published under the pseudonym of “Cato.”	纽约—1940年，英国独力对抗纳粹德国，一部托名“卡托”（Cato）的小书《罪人》（Guilty Men）出版发行。


Its authors were the future Labour Party leader Michael Foot, the Liberal journalist Frank Owen, and the Conservative journalist Peter Howard.	它的作者是日后的工党领袖迈克尔·福特（Michael Foot）、自由主义记者弗兰克·欧文（Frank Owen）和保守主义记者彼得·霍华德（Peter Howard）。


Guilty Men was a jeremiad that called to account the men – including Neville Chamberlain and Lord Halifax, then still members of Winston Churchill’s cabinet – whose appeasement of Adolf Hitler had helped to bring the United Kingdom to the brink of annihilation.	《罪人》是一封请愿书，要求问责张伯伦、哈利法克斯勋爵等人（当时仍是丘吉尔内阁成员），因为他们对希特勒的绥靖导致英国几乎覆灭。


Today, it is again time to name names, and not only in the UK, where democracy is writhing with Brexit fever.	如今，提名的时刻再次到来，而地点不仅仅在民主受到退欧狂热困扰的英国。


In the United States, a fetid paranoia has taken hold, with the white supremacist aggression in Charlottesville, Virginia over the August 12 weekend – where a peaceful counter-protester was killed and many were injured – just the latest manifestation.	在美国，一种恶劣的偏执狂心理已经生根发芽，8月12日的这个周某，白人至上主义者在弗吉尼亚州夏洛特斯维尔（Charlottesville）发动的袭击事件就是最新的明证——一位和平的反示威抗议者被杀，多人受伤。


President Donald Trump, no surprise, doesn’t want to name names.	不出意料，美国总统特朗普不愿意充当提名者。


It took him two days to condemn the racist groups that wreaked havoc in Charlottesville.	两天后，他才谴责了引起夏洛特斯维尔浩劫的种族主义组织。


And then he quickly backtracked, equating the Klansmen and “alt-right” extremists brandishing swastikas and chanting Nazi slogans with those who turned out to oppose them.	接着他又推翻了先前的谴责，将挥舞纳粹万字旗、高喊纳粹口号的3K党和“另类右翼”极端分子与挺身而出反对他们的人相提并论。


In fact, Trump owes his presidency to the forces of rage and resentment on display in Charlottesville.	事实上，特朗普能当上总统，正是借助了在夏洛特斯维尔尽显无疑的愤怒和怨恨。


But while Trump has gleefully fanned the flames of hatred in the US, he did not kindle them, just as the Brexiteers did not do so in the UK.	但特朗普虽然欣欣然为美国的仇恨思想煽风点火，他倒并非是始作俑者，正如退欧派也不是英国乱象的始作俑者。


We need to look beyond these figures to determine who really is responsible for fomenting a political climate where blatant lies and explicit racism and bigotry have entered the mainstream of public discourse.	我们的目光要超过这些人，找出谁应该真正为赤裸裸的谎言和不加掩饰的种族主义和偏执狂营造政治气氛、让他们进入到主流政治领域负责。


Only when we identify the sources of the odious virus now afflicting our democracies can we take practical steps to quarantine them.	只有找到了如今正在折磨我们的民主的病原体，才能采取务实的措施隔离它们。


Let’s start with “patient zero” in this political plague: Rupert Murdoch.	让我们从这场政治瘟疫的“一号病原”开始。 他就是鲁珀特·默多克（Rupert Merdoch）。


For decades, this impresario of the right-wing political-entertainment complex has coarsened politics in the UK and the US – not to mention his native Australia – for the sake of profit and political influence.	几十年来，这位右翼政治-娱乐大佬演变英国和美国——更不用说他的老家澳大利亚——的政治，为自己争取利润和政治影响力。


Murdoch’s newspapers and television networks might as well have patented the recipe for the deceitful, dog-whistle politics that powered Trump’s rise and the Brexit vote.	默多克的报纸和电视网络让欺骗的狗哨政治（dog-whistle politics）大行其道，特朗普的崛起和英国退欧投票结果都要拜其所赐。


Of what, precisely, is Murdoch guilty?	默多克之罪，罪在何处？


Let us put aside the ever-expanding roster of sexual harassment and assault complaints brought against his flagship Fox News Channel.	我们暂且将不断扩大的针对其旗舰平台——福克斯新闻台的性骚扰和性侵犯投诉对象名单放在一旁。


These have been so numerous and egregious that even the network’s founder, the late Roger Ailes, and its leading money-maker, the on-air blowhard Bill O’Reilly, finally (and reluctantly) had to be sacked.	性骚扰和性侵犯数量实在太多，影响实在恶劣，就连电视网创始人、已故的罗杰·埃尔斯（Roger Ailes）以及最大的“摇钱树”、名嘴主持人比尔·奥雷利（Bill O’Reilly），最终都被（不情愿地）扫地出门。


Let us also put aside the scandalous hacking of private telephones in the UK, which culminated in the closure of Murdoch’s beloved tabloid The News of the World in 2011.	我们也暂且将窃听英国私人电话的丑闻放在一旁。 该丑闻最终导致了默多克最喜欢的小报《世界新闻》（The News of the World）在2011年关门大吉。


To establish Murdoch’s culpability, it is enough to focus solely on the recent record of lies and deception from Murdoch-owned media outlets.	要记录默多克的罪状，只要关注其所拥有的新闻媒体最近的谎言和欺骗就足够了。


There were, for example, the repeated attempts by Fox News to insinuate that the murder of Seth Rich, a young Democratic National Committee staffer, was orchestrated by Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign team to hide Rich’s alleged role in leaking internal DNC emails.	比如，福克斯新闻台多次试图含沙射影年轻的民主党全国委员会职员赛斯·里奇（Seth Rich）被谋杀一案是希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）的总统竞选团队精心策划的，目的是隐瞒里奇在内部DNC邮件泄露事件中所扮演的角色。


In fact, a recent lawsuit alleges that Fox News actually worked with the White House to promote this bogus story.	事实上，最近有一宗官司指控其实是福克斯新闻台与白宫串通宣传这个炮制出来的消息。


This was hardly the network’s only anti-Clinton invention.	这绝非福克斯新闻台仅有的反克林顿发明。


Fox News host Sean Hannity and regular Fox commentator Newt Gingrich eagerly propagated one of the most bizarre conspiracy theories of our time: the claim that Clinton and her cohort were running a pedophilia ring out of a Washington, DC, pizzeria.	福克斯新闻台主持人西恩·汉尼迪（Sean Hannity）和固定评论员纽特·金里奇（Newt Gingrich）大力宣传当代最离奇的阴谋论：克林顿和她的爪牙在一家华盛顿披萨店从事恋童活动。


This truly nutty story led an armed man to enter the pizzeria and fire a rifle.	这个有如海外奇谈的故事导致一名男子持枪进入披萨店并开枪。


But that incident apparently gave neither Fox News nor its owner pause.	但该事件显然没有让福克斯新闻台及其所有者停下脚步。


Instead, the network went on to perpetuate the outright lie that Britain’s intelligence-gathering agency, the Government Communications Headquarters (better known as GCHQ), had been tasked by President Barack Obama to spy on Trump during the campaign.	相反，他们的网络继续传播彻头彻尾的谎言，说什么英国情报搜集机构政府通讯总部（Government Communications Headquarters，其缩写GCHQ更为著名）接受奥巴马总统的任务，在选战期间暗中侦查特朗普。


And it promoted the baseless story that former FBI Director James Comey, who Trump fired amid an intensifying investigation into his campaign’s potential collusion with Russia, had leaked classified memos.	他们还宣传无稽之谈，说联邦调查局前局长詹姆斯·科米（James Comey）泄露保密备忘录。 特朗普因为对其竞选活动可能与俄罗斯勾结的调查加紧进行而解除了科米的职位。


Of course, the sins of Murdoch’s media outlets are not limited to the US.	当然，默多克的新闻媒体的罪恶不仅限于美国。


To name one British example, the Murdoch-owned Sunday Times recently published a column by an Irish Holocaust denier repeating the old racist calumny that Jews love only money, while belittling women who work at the BBC for receiving lower pay – supposedly a result of their failure to assert themselves.	举一个英国的例子。 默多克旗下的《星期日泰晤士报》最近刊登了一位否认大屠杀的爱尔兰人撰写的专栏，重申犹太人只爱钱的古老的种族主义诽谤，同时嘲笑为BBC工作的女性工资低——这应该是她们没有坚持主张权利结果。


In any responsible press organization, the publication or broadcast of even one of these genuine examples of fake news would be grounds for dismissal of the editors responsible – not least because of investors’ outrage.	任何负责任的媒体组织，发布或播出这些名副其实的假新闻中的一条，就绝对应该炒责任编辑的鱿鱼——因为投资者将怒不可遏。


Yet Murdoch has continued to produce large enough profits to silence institutional shareholders such as the Vanguard Group, Fidelity Investments, and Franklin Templeton Investments.	但默多克仍然能够产生足够大的利润，让先锋集团（Vanguard Group）、富达投资公司（Fidelity Investment）和富兰克林·邓普顿投资公司（Franklin Templeton Investments）等机构投资者保持缄默。


Individual investors are equally complacent.	个人投资者也同样满意。


Consider Saudi Prince Al-Waleed Bin Talal, the second-largest shareholder of Fox News’s parent company.	以沙特王子瓦利德（Al-Waleed Bin Talal）为例，他是福克斯新闻台的母公司的第二大股东。


He is apparently more interested in making money than pushing back against, say, the network’s propagation of incendiary claims about Muslims, including that they are trying to impose Sharia law on the US.	他显然对赚钱更感兴趣，而不是反驳该新闻网所宣传的煽动性反穆言论，包括他们在美国推行沙里亚法的宣传。


If markets cannot induce better behavior from Murdoch, it may be up to governments to step in.	如果市场不能纠正默多克的行为，政府必须站出来。


With Murdoch seeking to acquire full control of Sky Television, British regulators have a critical opportunity to prevent a Fox News clone from appearing on British television screens – if they have the courage, which UK regulators have not shown up to now.	当默多克寻求完全控制天空电视台时，英国监管者有了一次重要机会阻止一个克隆的福克斯新闻台出现在英国的电视屏幕上——如果他们有足够的勇气的话，但到目前为止英国监管者并没有表现出这种勇气。


Previously, Murdoch and his sons were somehow deemed “fit and proper” owners for a UK television license.	此前，默多克和他的儿子们在一定程度上被视为英国电视执照的“合适的”所有者。


But as the catalogue of lies that Fox has promoted in the first six months of the Trump presidency has demonstrated, there is no man more unfit for ownership of a media outlet in a democracy than Rupert Murdoch.	但在特朗普上台的第一个半年中福克斯新闻台炮制谎言的情况看，没有比鲁珀特·默多克更加不合适的民主国家媒体组织所有者了。


As a former citizen of a country – the Soviet Union – that was morally and politically corrupted by propaganda, I am well aware of the damage that can be done by weaponized “news.”	身为一个在道德上和政治上都被宣传所腐蚀的国家——苏联的前公民，我很清楚“新闻”武器化会造成什么伤害。


Murdoch is one of the truly guilty men of our times, and he must be stopped.	默多克是当代真正的罪人之一，他必须被阻止。


A Trip Through Putin Country	一场穿越普京俄国的旅行


VLADIVOSTOK – Russia’s Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railway “can be hardly named as a popular tourist attraction,” says one tourist website of the some 2,000-mile railway traversing Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East.	发自符拉迪沃斯托克——在某个旅游网站的评论中，横穿东西伯利亚和俄罗斯远东之间长达2000英里的俄罗斯贝加尔-阿穆尔干线铁路“算不上是个热门的旅游景点……大多数人甚至连听都没听说过它。


“Most people even never [sic] heard of it.”	”


The BAM’s older rival, the Trans-Siberian Railway, is certainly more popular.	而比贝阿铁路古老一些的竞争对手跨西伯利亚铁路则显然更受欢迎。


Since opening in 1916 it has attracted many big names, including the travel writers Peter Fleming, Paul Theroux, and Colin Thubron.	自1916年通车以来，这条路线吸引了很多大牌人物前往乘坐，包括旅行作家彼得·弗莱明（Peter Fleming），保罗·西洛斯（Paul Theroux）和科林·图布伦（Colin Thubron）。


But it is the BAM – this unloved northern spur, initiated by Stalin in the 1930s, and completed under Leonid Brezhnev in 1984 – that offers the more useful window onto the Russian mood outside of cosmopolitan Moscow and St. Petersburg.	但正是贝阿铁路——这条由斯大林在1930年代发起，并于1984年在列昂尼德·勃列日涅夫（Leonid Brezhnev）手下完工的不受待见的北方支线——为我们了解莫斯科和圣彼得堡等大城市之外的俄罗斯社会情绪提供了更有利的窗口。


Today, BAM land is overwhelmingly Putin land.	而今，贝阿铁路沿线的土地是实实在在的普京领地。


I was inspired to take the BAM across Siberia by Dervla Murphy’s book, Through Siberia by Accident, even though Murphy, an intrepid Irish grandmother, broke a leg slipping in the train car’s primitive toilet.	我是在读了德芙拉·墨菲（Dervla Murphy）的《意外穿越西伯利亚》（Through Siberia by Accident）一书后动了乘坐贝阿铁路的念头，尽管这位勇敢无畏的爱尔兰大妈曾经在该列火车上简陋的卫生间里滑了一跤，摔断了一条腿。


I was further motivated by the fact that my great-grandfather had built the far-eastern section of the Trans-Siberian Railway in the 1890s, yet I had never been to its terminus, Vladivostok, where my father was born.	进一步驱动我做这件事的原因是我的曾祖父曾在1890年代参与建设了跨西伯利亚铁路的东北部分，但我从未到过这条铁路的终点站符拉迪沃斯托克（也是我爸出生的地方）。


So three friends joined me on an improbable two-week railway adventure across Siberia.	于是我拉了三个朋友，一起踏上了为期两周的横跨西伯利亚铁路奇幻冒险旅程。


The BAM – like the Motherland Calls statue in Volgograd, the eternal flames at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and Victory Park in Moscow, and the giant hydroelectric plants that line the train’s route – is a symbol of the once-mighty Soviet Union.	贝阿铁路——就像伏尔加格勒的祖国母亲在召唤（Motherland Calls）纪念碑，莫斯科的无名战士墓和胜利公园的长明之火，以及列阵于铁路沿线的巨型水力发电站——是曾经强大的苏联的象征。


It was the regime’s last great thrust into the Far East.	它也算是这个政权对远东地区的最后一次大推进。


As Brezhnev put it, the BAM was “the construction project of the century,” pushing, cutting, and tunneling its way through thousands of miles of rivers, forests, and cliffs usually covered in permafrost.	正如勃列日涅夫所说，贝阿铁路是“世纪建设项目”，推进，切割和贯穿了数千英里的河流，森林和通常在永冻土之覆盖下的悬崖峭壁。


Today, it endures in the mythology of the Soviet Union chiefly as a monument to collective effort.	今天，它主要作为一个集体努力的纪念碑，承载着苏维埃的神话。


Tynda is a typical BAM town.	滕达（Tynda/Ты́нда）是一个典型的贝阿铁路城镇。


Across from the station stands a statue of a heroic young woman enveloped in machinery; in the park lay an ancient engine; and beyond there, rows of featureless apartment blocks stretch into the distance.	在车站对面树立着一个英雄年轻女子雕像，身边围绕着一圈机器。 在公园里安放着一个古老的引擎；


A forlorn job application on a large signpost reads, “Nice girl, gentle without bad habits, will sell cement.”	放眼望去，一排毫无特征的公寓楼延伸到远处。 在一个大布告板上孤零零地贴着一张求职意向书，上面写着“年轻女性，性格温和无不良嗜好，愿意承担水泥销售工作”。


The BAM museum in Severobaikalsk is full of mannequins and photographs of BAM workers, their medals, and the machinery they used, including the giant metal samovars in which they made their tea.	而位于北贝加尔斯克（Severobaikalsk）的贝阿铁路博物馆则满是贝阿铁路工作者的塑像和照片，他们获得的奖章以及所使用的机器，包括他们用来泡茶的巨型茶水壶。


Pride of place goes to Fedor Fedorovich, the generic unsung hero whose task it was to prevent accidents by banging the rails and wagon couplings with a hammer to check for faults.	最显眼的地方留给了费多·费多罗维奇（Fedor Fedorovich），这位朴实的无名英雄的工作是通过用锤子敲击轨道和货车联轴器来排查故障防止事故。


To Tatiana Nicolaevna Vetrova, the museum’s curator, the BAM was a symbol of unity.	对于博物馆策展人塔蒂亚娜·尼古拉夫娜·维特洛娃（Tatiana Nicolaevna Vetrova）来说，贝阿铁路是团结的象征。


The stations along its route – some quite striking – were built in the architectural style of the nations of the Soviet Union that had joined together to complete this mighty project.	沿线各车站——有些令人惊叹不已——都是按照苏联各加盟共和国的建筑风格来营建，也正是由它们携手共同完成了这个巨大的工程。


I asked Tatiana whether the museum had a brochure for tourists. “There are many academic treatises on the subject,” she replied.	我问塔蒂亚娜博物馆是否有游客手册，她回答说：“有很多关于这项工程的学术论文。


I persisted, requesting again a short guide for tourists, but she, too, was immovable, stating that there are too many facts to fit into a short space.	”我坚持要求她们出一张简短的游客指南，但她依旧不为所动，表示说涉及的内容太多，小小几张纸片可装不下。


Finally, Tatiana sold me the story of BAM, written in verse, for 350 rubles ($6).	最后，塔蒂亚娜卖了一本以诗歌形式写成的贝阿铁路故事给我，作价350卢布（合6美元）。


The railway was, the story said, “the roll-call of our youth.”	这个故事说，这条铁路“是对我们年轻一代的集结号”。


BAMovstsy (as the construction workers are called) did not make much money, nor did they expect to.	贝阿铁路人（建设者给自己的称谓）没有多少报酬，也不期望有多少报酬。


Instead – in an obvious criticism of capitalism – they worked for their country, and for one another.	相反——很显然带着对资本主义的批判——他们为自己的祖国和彼此而工作。


“How to make friends as we did then, that is what we teach our children.”	“我们当年是如何交朋友的，这些也会教给我们的孩子。 ”


The tone is overwhelmingly elegiac: back then, comrades came together to build a new world.	诗歌的语气非常伤感：当年同志们聚集在一起去建立一个新的世界。


In Tatiana’s words, the BAM was “a labor of love and heroic sacrifice built by the dedicated workers, for the sake of their children and grandchildren.”	以塔蒂亚娜的话来说，贝阿铁路是“勇于奉献的工人们为了子孙孙而付出的充满爱与英雄般牺牲的心血”。


Like the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945, the horrors fade, but the flame never dies.	像1941~45年的伟大卫国战争一样，恐怖会黯淡，但火焰永存。


Yet the horrors were plentiful.	然而恐怖的内容可不止于此。


Tatiana insisted that BAM construction was started in 1974, the politically correct date, after which “clean labor” was used.	塔蒂亚娜坚持认为贝阿铁路的建设始于1974年，这个日期相当政治正确，因为自那以后都使用的都是“清白劳工”。


But the railway’s first section – initiated by Stalin to offer an eastern route that ran farther away from the Chinese border – was built by forced labor, including Russian inmates and German and Japanese prisoners of war, herded together in so-called BAMlags, now ghost towns.	但是铁路的第一部分——由斯大林立项建设一条远离中国边界的东部路线——是由强制劳动建造的，包括俄罗斯囚犯，德国和日本战俘，这些人当年都被圈禁在所谓的贝阿铁路屯（BAMlags）里，如今这些地方都成了鬼城。


Even when volunteers were used, they were not nearly as enthusiastic as official accounts claim.	即使在志愿者到来之时，他们也不像官方的说法中那么热心。


Lacking adequate housing and electricity, few re-enlisted, and many deserted before completing their term.	由于缺乏足够的住房和电力，几乎没什么人愿意再次接受征召，许多人在任期结束之前就跑掉了。


Nonetheless, the Brezhnev-era BAM construction showed what that dying Soviet system was still capable of achieving.	尽管如此，勃列日涅夫时代的贝阿铁路建设表明垂死的苏维埃体系仍然拥有一定能力。


Indeed, the railway’s completion amounts to an asterisk on the conventional assessment of how decrepit the late Soviet Union really was.	事实上，这项工程的完工是对末期苏联究竟破败到何种程度的常规评估的良好注解。


The truth is that Siberian Russia – still home to 20-30 million Russians – benefited significantly more from the Soviet system than the European population centers did.	事实是，俄罗斯的西伯利亚地区——仍然拥有二千至三千万俄罗斯人——要比那些靠近欧洲的俄罗斯大城市更受益于苏维埃体制。


The heart of Russia, we were often told by those we met during our BAM journey, is rural, not urban.	我们经常在贝阿铁路旅程中被告知，俄罗斯的心脏是在农村而非城市。


In fact, the Soviet state sustained the Tsarist policy of subsidizing Russians to move east.	事实上，苏联时期一直维持着补贴俄罗斯人向东部进发的旧沙皇政策。


Only now are they returning to Europe, replaced partly by an influx of Chinese and Uzbeks.	现在这些俄罗斯人才开始回流向欧洲方向，而空出的地方则在某种程度上被涌入的中国和乌兹别克斯坦人所占据。


Our journey on the BAM furnished poignant reminders of the region’s previous prosperity.	我们的贝阿铁路之旅充满了对该地区往日繁荣的惊叹。


One that stuck in my memory was a deserted kolkhoz (collective farm) on Lake Baikal, which once thrived on fishing and fur.	其中一个令我念念不忘的地方是贝加尔湖边一个荒废的集体农场，当年这里曾因捕鱼和毛皮而繁荣一时。


The village, still inhabited and well maintained, consists of a few people growing vegetables, keeping chickens and the odd cow, and selling trinkets to visitors like me.	这个村镇目前依然有人居住且市容整洁，有一些人在种菜，喂养鸡和奇怪的牛，还向我这样的游客兜售小饰品。


At the same time, rusting fishing boats line the shore like beached whales.	与此同时，生锈的渔船就像搁浅的鲸鱼一样陈列在岸边。


In the village, as we enjoyed a homemade lunch of soup and pancakes, our hostess praised Putin, whom she credited with restoring Russia to health after the Soviet Union’s disintegration.	在村里，在我们享用了家常自制的汤和煎饼午餐时，女主人赞扬了普京，确信他能在苏联解体后令俄罗斯恢复健康。


“Why is the West so down on Russia?” one of our fellow travelers asked.	“那为何西方会对俄罗斯那么失望呢？ ”与我同行的一个朋友问道。


“Don’t they understand that a chaotic Russia is a much greater threat to the world than a united one?”	“他们难道不明白一个混乱的俄罗斯对世界的威胁比要比一个团结的更大吗？


It is hard to get a hearing on international law in BAM land.	”在贝阿铁路沿线听到国际法辩论真是一件少有的事情啊。


Putin’s Medieval Dreams	恐怖的伊凡为什么在俄罗斯复活？


ATLANTA – While much of the world is busy dismantling monuments to oppressors, Russians are moving in the opposite direction, erecting statues to medieval warlords who were famous for their despotism.	亚特兰大——虽然世界多数国家都在忙着拆除压迫者的纪念碑，但俄罗斯的前进方向却恰恰相反，为以专制主义而闻名的中世纪军阀修筑雕像。


Understanding this revival can shed light on the direction of Russia’s politics.	理解这种回潮可以揭示俄罗斯政治前进的方向。


In October 2016, with the endorsement of Russia’s culture minister, Vladimir Medinsky, the country’s first-ever monument to Ivan the Terrible was unveiled in the city of Orel.	去年10月，在俄国文化部长弗拉基米尔·梅金斯基的支持下，奥廖尔市揭幕了该国有史以来第一尊恐怖的伊凡的雕像。


A month later, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, called for Lenin Avenue in Moscow to be renamed Ivan the Terrible Highway.	一个月后，俄超民族自由民主党领袖弗拉基米尔·日里诺夫斯基号召将莫斯科的列宁大道改名为恐怖的伊凡公路。


And in July of this year, President Vladimir Putin christened Moscow’s own tribute to the tyrant, declaring, erroneously, that “most likely, Ivan the Terrible never killed anyone, not even his son.”	而今年7月，弗拉基米尔·普京总统命名了莫斯科当地对这位专制君主的献礼，并错误地宣称“恐怖的伊凡极有可能从未杀害任何人，甚至包括他的儿子。 ”


Most historians agree that Ivan lived up to his name; not only did he kill his son and other relatives, he also ordered the oprichnina, the state-led purges that terrorized Russia from 1565 to 1572.	多数历史学家都认为恐怖的伊凡名副其实； 他不仅杀害了他的儿子和其他亲属，还下令执行1565到1572年令俄国陷入恐怖氛围的由国家主导的清洗运动（oprichnina）。


He also presided over Russia’s defeat in the Livonian War, and his misrule contributed to the Time of Troubles and the state’s devastating depopulation.	他执政期间还导致了俄罗斯在利沃尼亚战争中的惨败，而他的暴政则导致俄罗斯陷入动荡并导致该国人口毁灭性减少。


Joseph Stalin initiated the modern cult of Ivan the Terrible.	约瑟夫·斯大林是恐怖的伊凡现代崇拜运动的发起者。


But, since the mid-2000s, Russia’s Eurasia Party – a political movement led by the pro-fascist mystic Alexander Dugin – has moved to position Ivan as the best incarnation of an “authentic” Russian tradition: authoritarian monarchy.	但从21世纪中叶以来，俄罗斯的欧亚党——一项由神秘的亲法西斯份子亚历山大·杜金所领导的政治运动——已经将伊凡定义为专制君主制这一“真正”俄罗斯传统的最佳代表。


Dugin’s brand of “Eurasianism” advocates the embrace of a “new Middle Ages,” where what little remains of Russian democracy is replaced by an absolute autocrat.	杜金的“欧亚主义”品牌主张拥抱“新中世纪”，由绝对专制取代俄罗斯仅存的一点点民主。


In Dugin’s ideal future, a medieval social order would return, the empire would be restored, and the Orthodox church would assume control over culture and education.	杜金理想中的未来将恢复中世纪的社会秩序、重塑帝国、而东正教堂将会控制文化和教育。


Eurasianism, which was marginal in the 1990s, has gained considerable popularity in recent years by contributing to the formation of the so-called Izborsky Club, which unites the Russian far right.	欧亚主义在20世纪90年代仍处于边缘地位，但近年来却收获了相当的人气并建立了团结俄罗斯极右翼势力的所谓伊兹布尔斯基俱乐部（Izborsky）。


On several occasions, Putin has referred to Eurasianism as an important part of Russian ideology; he has even invoked it as a founding principle of the “Eurasian Economic Union,” a burgeoning trade area of former Soviet states.	普京曾多次提到欧亚主义是俄意识形态的重要组成部分，甚至把它作为前苏联国家蓬勃发展的“欧亚经济联盟”贸易区的基本原则来加以引述。


Eurasianism has given ultra-nationalist groups common ground around which to unite.	欧亚主义赋予了超民族团体团结一致的共同理由。


It has also given symbols of totalitarianism, like Ivan the Terrible and Stalin, new legions of support.	它还为恐怖的伊凡和斯大林等极权主义象征人物吸引了新的支持群体。


Chief among them are members of the Eurasia Party, who consider political terror the most effective tool of governance and call for a “new oprichnina” – a staunchly anti-Western Eurasian conservative revolution.	其中最主要的当属欧亚党党员，他们将政治恐怖视为最有效的执政工具并呼吁开展一次“新的国家清洗运动”——亦即一次坚定不移的反西方欧亚保守革命。


According to Mikhail Yuriev, a member of the political council of the Eurasia Party and author of the utopian novel The Third Empire, the oprichniks should be the only political class, and they should rule by fear.	欧亚党政治委员会委员兼乌托邦小说《第三帝国》作者米哈伊尔·尤里耶夫认为，俄国骑兵理当成为唯一的政治阶级，而他们应当实行恐怖统治。


Ivan the Terrible is not the only medieval vestige being revived in Russia.	恐怖的伊凡并非俄罗斯复兴的唯一中世纪遗迹。


Cultural vocabulary is also reverting.	同样回潮的包括文化词语。


For example, the word kholop, which means “serf,” is returning to the vernacular, a linguistic devolution that parallels a troubling rise in Russia’s modern slavery.	例如，“农奴”（ kholop）一词正在回到俄语白话，这是一种与俄现代奴隶制崛起相对应的语言转移。


Data from the Global Slavery Index show that more than one million Russians are currently enslaved in the construction industry, the military, agriculture, and the sex trade.	全球奴隶制指数统计显示，目前有一百多万俄国人正遭受建筑业、军事、农业和性交易的奴役。


Moreover, serf “owners” are also happily identifying themselves as modern-day barins.	而且，农奴“主”也乐于用现代乡绅（Barin）来标榜自己。


Even Russian officials speak approvingly of modern slavery.	就连俄国官员也赞成现代奴隶制。


Valery Zorkin, who chairs the Constitutional Court, wrote in Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the official government newspaper, that serfdom has long been a “social glue” for Russia.	宪法法院院长瓦莱里·佐尔金（Valery Zorkin）在政府官方报纸“俄罗斯报”（Rossiyskaya Gazeta）上写道，农奴制长期以来一直扮演着俄罗斯的社会“粘合剂”。


And another medieval term – lydi gosudarevy, which translates to “servants of his majesty” – has returned to favor among high-ranking bureaucrats.	而高层官僚已经重新开始青睐另一个中世纪名词“陛下的仆人”（lydi gosudarevy）。


Nostalgia for serfdom compliments the desire for a return to autocracy.	对农奴制的怀念赞赏了回归专制的愿望。


Prominent Russian intellectuals – including the filmmaker Nikita Mikhalkov, journalist Maksim Sokolov, and Vsevolod Chaplin, a Russian Orthodox cleric – call for the coronation of Putin, and petitions of support are gaining signatures online.	著名的俄国知识分子——包括电影制片人尼基塔·米哈尔科夫（Nikita Mikhalkov）、记者马克西姆·索科洛夫（Maksim Sokolov）和俄罗斯东正教牧师查普林（Vsevolod Chaplin）—— 呼吁普京加冕，而支持加冕的请愿书正在网上征集签名。


Significantly, the protests against Putin’s regime in 2012 have since been interpreted not as a protest against Putin himself, but rather against the social order to which Eurasianism aspires.	值得注意的是，从那以后，2012年对普京政权的抗议并未被视为反对普京本人，而被视为反对欧亚主义所追求的社会秩序。


Putin’s tacit support for the Eurasian vision of a neo-medieval Russia invokes the historical memory of Stalinism.	普京对新中世纪俄罗斯欧亚愿景的默契支持唤起了斯大林主义的历史记忆。


According to Dugin, “Stalin created the Soviet Empire,” and, like Ivan the Terrible, expresses “the spirit of the Soviet society and the Soviet people.”	杜金说“斯大林创建了苏维埃帝国”，而且就像恐怖的伊凡一样，表达了“苏联人民和苏联人民的精神志气”。


No wonder, then, that monuments to Stalin, too, are multiplying in Russian cities.	难怪斯大林纪念碑也能在俄国城市生生不息。


Neo-medievalism is rooted in nostalgia for a social order based on inequality, caste, and clan, enforced by terror.	新中世纪主义植根于恐怖氛围强制下的对不平等、种姓和宗族社会秩序的怀旧情绪。


The lionization of historical despots reflects the contemporary embrace of such pre-modern, radically anti-democratic and unjust values.	将历史暴君名流化反映了当代对这种前现代、极端反民主和不公正价值观的认可情绪。


For Ivan’s contemporary champions, the past is prologue.	对伊凡的当代支持者而言，过去仅仅是序幕而已。


How Americans Became Vulnerable to Russian Disinformation	为何美国人容易接受俄罗斯伪信息


ATLANTA – As the United States marks the first anniversary of President Donald Trump’s election, the question of how Trump won still commands attention, with Russia’s role moving increasingly to center stage.	亚特兰大—在特朗普担任美国总统一周年之际，特朗普如何赢得大选的问题仍在受到人们的关注，而俄罗斯在从中所扮演的角色越来越重要。


Each new revelation in the investigation of Russia’s meddling in the 2016 campaign brings the vulnerability of the US democratic process into sharper focus.	对俄罗斯操纵2016年选战的调查的每一次案情公布，都让美国民主程序的脆弱性遭到更严重的关注。


Last week, Congress unveiled legislation that would force Facebook, Google, and other social media giants to disclose who buys online advertising, thereby closing a loophole that Russia exploited during the election.	上周，国会公布了一项立法，强制要求Facebook、谷歌和其他社交媒体巨头披露谁在购买在线广告，从而堵住在选举期间被俄罗斯所利用的漏洞。


But making amends through technical fixes and public promises to be better corporate citizens will solve only the most publicized problem.	但通过技术手段修修补补和公开承诺担当更好的公司公民只能解决最公开化的问题。


The tougher challenge will be strengthening institutions that are vital to the functioning of democracy – specifically, civics education and local journalism.	更棘手的挑战是强化对民主的运行至关重要的制度——具体而言，就是公民教育和地方新闻（local journalism）。


Until gains are made in these areas, the threat to America’s democratic process will grow, resurfacing every time the country votes.	在这些领域取得进步之前，对美国民主程序的威胁还会不断加剧，每次选举都会浮出水面。


Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intelligence operatives chose wisely in mounting their social media attack.	俄罗斯总统普京的情报人员聪明地选择主要依靠社交媒体发动袭击。


Facebook hosts nearly 80% of all mobile social media traffic, while Google accounts for close to 90% of all online-search-related advertising.	Facebook占了的移动社交媒体总流量的近80%，而谷歌占了在线搜索相关广告的近90%。


By inundating these two platforms with automated messages from tens of thousands of bogus user accounts, Russia was able to stoke discord along economic, racial, and political lines.	俄罗斯通过数万个伪用户账号给这两个平台自动发送海量信息，从而煽动经济、种族和政治等各方面的纷争。


Moreover, they did it cheaply.	此外，这样做的成本十分低廉。


According to one analysis, with only modest ad purchases on Facebook, Russian agents gained access to a goldmine of online advertising data – such as Facebook’s customer targeting software – which enabled the “sharing” of Russia’s fake news hundreds of millions of times. At one point during this clandestine assault, an estimated 400,000 bots – software applications that run automated scripts – sent millions of fictitious political messages, which in turn generated some 20% of all Twitter traffic during the final month of the campaign.	根据一项分析，只要在Facebook上购买少量广告，俄罗斯特工就能获得在线广告数据金矿——比如Facebook的客户目标定位软件——从而让俄罗斯假新闻获得数亿次的“转发”。


It is bad enough that the technology world’s marquee names were not prepared to parry foreign meddling in America’s most important election.	技术界的这些“高大上”的组织，根本没有针对干涉美国最重要的选举的外国势力做好准备，这真是糟透了。


But the social media giants’ persistent denial of responsibility for the volume of distorted and false information delivered as news, even as Russia’s role has grown clearer, is more troubling.	但社交媒体巨头们一直否认他们对作为新闻发布的大量扭曲和虚假信息负有责任，即使俄罗斯的角色已经日益水落石出。 这是更加麻烦的地方。


Strip away the technobabble about better algorithms, more transparency, and commitment to truth, and Silicon Valley’s “fixes” dodge a simple fact: its technologies are not designed to sort truth from falsehoods, check accuracy, or correct mistakes.	除了关于更好的算法的技术问题、更大的透明度和对真相的坚持，硅谷的“方案”忽视了一个简单的事实：它们的技术不是用来从谬误中截取真相、检查准确性或纠正错误的。


Just the opposite: they are built to maximize clicks, shares, and “likes.”	正好相反，它们是用来实现点击、转发和“点赞”最大化的。


Despite pushing to displace traditional news outlets as the world’s information platforms, social media’s moguls appear content to ignore journalism’s fundamental values, processes, and goals.	社交媒体号称要取代传统新闻组织，成为世界信息平台，但社交媒体巨头似乎对于忽视新闻的基本价值观、程序和目标感到心安理得。


It is this irresponsibility that co-sponsors of the recent advertising transparency bill are seeking to address.	这种不负责任的态度正是最近的广告透明度法案的联合起草者所要纠正的问题。


Still, Russia’s success in targeting American voters with bogus news could not have succeeded were it not for the second problem: a poorly educated electorate susceptible to manipulation.	尽管如此，俄罗斯成功针对美国选民推送了假新闻。 而要不是因为第二个问题，他们无法取得成功。


The erosion of civics education in schools, the shuttering of local newspapers – and the consequent decline in the public’s understanding of issues and the political process – conspire to create fertile ground for the sowing of disinformation.	这个问题便是选民教育程度不够，容易操纵。 学校公民教育的衰败、地方报纸的倒闭——以及由此导致的公众对问题和政治程序的理解力的下降——共同形成了传播伪信息的温床。


Consider the evidence: In 2005, an American Bar Association survey found that 50% of Americans could not correctly identify the country’s three branches of government.	我们来看证据。 2005年，美国律师协会的调查发现50%的美国人无法正确说出美国的三权分立是什么。


By the time the Annenberg Center for Public Policy asked the same question in 2015, the percentage of such respondents had grown to two thirds, and a staggering 32% could not name a single branch.	2015年，安嫩伯格公共政策中心（Annenberg Center for Public Policy）同样的调查，无法正确回答的回复比例增加到三分之二，更有高达32%的人连其中一类都说不出。


This slippage is apparently age-dependent; a 2016 study of Americans with university degrees found that those over 65 years of age know far more about how their government works than those under 34.	这一知识水平下滑趋势表现出年龄特征； 2016年的一项针对有大学文凭的美国人的研究发现，65岁以上的人对政府工作的了解比34岁以下的人好得多。


There is a clear correlation between democratic illiteracy and a de-emphasis on civics, government, and history education in schools.	民主知识的匮乏和学校公民、政府和历史教育的不受重视之间有着显而易见的相关性。


In 2006, for example, a national study that tracks student performance in various subjects found that only a quarter of America’s 12th graders were proficient in civics.	比如，2006年的一项全国性调查跟踪了各学科的学生成绩，结果发现，只有四分之一的美国12年级学生精通公民课。


A decade later, that percentage had sunk below 25%.	十年后，这一比例下降到25%以下。


Not surprisingly, overall educational quality and access to basic civics coursework have also suffered in recent years.	毫不奇怪，总体教育质量和基本公民课程的普及度在近几年中也是每况愈下。


In 2011, a think tank that ranks the 50 states on the rigor of their high schools’ US history courses gave 28 states failing grades.	2011年，一家智库对50个州的高中美国历史课程质量进行了评估，有28个州被评为不合格。


A 2016 survey of 1,000 liberal arts colleges found that only 18% required a US history or government course to earn a degree.	2016年的一项研究调查了1,000所文科院校，结果发现只有18%将美国历史或政府课程列为学位必修课程。


High school or university courses by themselves will not keep gullible voters from falling for bogus news or inflammatory disinformation.	高中和大学课程本身并不能阻止容易上当的选民落入假新闻或煽动性伪信息的陷阱。


But the viral spread of fake news stories initiated by Russian agents made one thing clear: an electorate lacking a basic civics education is more likely to fall for provocations designed to inflame partisan tensions.	但俄罗斯特工炮制的假新闻像病毒那样传播，清楚地表明了一件事：缺乏基本公民教育的选民更有可能落入为了煽动党派对立而进行的挑拨。


Changes in the news industry are increasing that risk.	新闻业的变化正在增加这一风险。


As Internet giants siphon away advertising revenue from traditional media outlets, social media have become many people’s main source of news.	互联网巨头将广告收入从传统媒体手中夺走，社交媒体成为许多人的主要新闻来源。


Traditional news organizations, especially local newspapers, are steadily disappearing, shrinking voters’ access to information that is vital to making informed political decisions.	传统新闻组织，特别是地方报纸，正在稳步消亡，缩小了选民的信息渠道，而这对于做出知情的政治决策至关重要。


The numbers are striking.	数字触目惊心。


Since 2004, 10% of all small-market newspapers have closed or merged.	自2004年以来，10%的小市场报纸关门或被兼并。


Of those that survive, over a third have changed ownership, concentrating the industry into fewer hands.	在存活下来的小市场报纸中，超过三分之一所有权发生了改变，整个行业变得更加集中了。


The result has been layoffs, cost-cutting, and diminished reporting on national and local issues.	结果是裁员、削减成本和减少对国家和地方问题的报道。


As for the media’s civic responsibility, that, too, seems to have suffered.	至于媒体的公民责任，也遭到了影响。


The managers’ manual from one investment firm that owns three daily and 42 weekly newspapers does not mince words: “Our customer is the advertiser,” the document states.	一家拥有三家日报和42家周报的投资企业的经理手册直言不讳：“我们的客户是广告商，”手册写道。


“Readers are our customers’ customers,” so “we operate with a lean newsroom staff.”	“读者是我们的客户的客户，”因此“我们要保持新闻室人手的精简。 ”


Russia’s intervention in the 2016 US presidential election was historic, but it was also symptomatic of bigger challenges facing Americans.	俄罗斯对2016年美国总统选举的干预是历史性的，但它也是美国人所面临的更大的挑战的症候。


A population that does not fully understand its own democracy should concern not only civics teachers, but national security experts as well.	面对无法充分理解自己国家的民主的人民，不仅公民课教师应该感到担忧，国家安全专家也应该忧心忡忡。


The US didn’t need Putin to deliver that lesson.	美国不需要普京来上这一课。


“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free,” Thomas Jefferson warned, “it expects what never was and never will be.”	“如果一个国家想要无知又自由，”杰斐逊警告说，“那它想要的从来得不到，也永远无法得到。 ”


Russia’s Middle East Success	俄罗斯的中东成就


MADRID – After years on the sidelines, Russia is back at the center of the Middle East geostrategic game.	发自马德里——在边缘徘徊多年之后，俄罗斯又回到了中东地缘政治博弈的中心。


Against the background of an equivocal United States policy, Russia’s calculated intervention in the Syrian civil war is a rare case in which a limited use of power in the region resulted in a major diplomatic shakeup.	趁着美国政策首鼠两端的空子，俄罗斯对叙利亚内战实施了精确干预，并创下了利用有限实力在某地区实现重大外交变局的罕见战例。


In a recent interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, US President Barack Obama revealed his thinking in a number of key foreign-policy areas, particularly the Middle East.	在最近一次接受名记杰弗里·戈德堡（Jeffrey Goldberg）采访的时候，美国总统奥巴马透露了他在一些关键外交政策领域——尤其是中东事务——的想法。


Cynically dismissive of both his European allies and his security advisers, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who supported military intervention in Syria, Obama minces no words in his fatalistic depiction of the troubled region.	奥巴马毫不理会那些欧洲盟友和手下那些支持武装介入叙利亚事务的安全顾问们(包括前国务卿希拉里)的呼声，而是直白地陈述了他对这一动乱地区的宿命式结论。


According to Obama, there is little, if anything, America can do to stabilize the Middle East.	在奥巴马看来，美国并没有什么好办法去实现中东地区的稳定。


He even claimed to be proud of not enforcing the “red line” he had drawn in 2012 regarding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons, as neither international law nor the US Congress would have sanctioned intervention.	他甚至宣称为自己并未强制执行“红线”——在2012年就叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德（Bashar al-Assad）的使用化学武器而划定的界限——而感到自豪，因为无论国际法还是美国国会都不会批准实施干预。


That decision, Obama emphasized, enabled an agreement to remove, with Russian cooperation, most of Syria’s chemical-weapons stockpile.	奥巴马强调正这一决定使得随后得以达成协议，在俄罗斯的配合下销毁了大部分叙利亚的化学武器储备。


But, as Goldberg points out, the decision not to enforce the red line with air strikes may also have caused the Middle East to “slip from America’s grasp.”	但是，正如戈德堡指出，不执行空袭红线的决策也可能造成中东局势“脱离美国的掌控。


And, indeed, important strategic assets in the Middle East have been lost to unfriendly powers, from Russia to the Islamic State (ISIS).	”确实，美国在中东地区的重要战略资产都被拱手让给了那些不友好势力，比如俄罗斯或者伊斯兰国。


Add to that the alienation of close allies, many of which doubt the ability and willingness of an Asia-fixated US to stand by them, and Obama’s suggestion that the US should not be focused on the Middle East is shocking.	许多原本的亲密盟友本来就怀疑将目光转向亚洲的美国是否有为它们撑腰的能力和意愿，并因此日愈疏远，如今奥巴马认为美国不应关注中东的说法更是令它们感到震惊。


Of course, a key motive for Obama’s reticence about engaging in the Middle East is fear of repeating the mistakes that left the US enmeshed in Afghanistan and Iraq – the result of what Obama called the US government’s unthinking “drift toward war in Muslim countries.”	当然，奥巴马不愿介入中东的一个关键动机就是害怕重复美国当年深陷阿富汗和伊拉克的错误——他称之为美国政府在缺乏深思熟虑之下“滑向对穆斯林国家的战争”的恶果。


But Putin has just proved that a military intervention in the Middle East does not have to lead to a quagmire.	而普京则刚刚证明对中东地区的军事干预并不一定会导致陷入泥潭。


In fact, far from fulfilling Obama’s pessimistic predictions, Russia’s Syrian operation may help drive forward a political settlement.	事实上与奥巴马的悲观预言相反，俄罗斯的叙利亚行动可能有助于推动一个政治解决方案。


By refusing to be drawn into a long and costly war that would allow Assad to recover most of Syria’s territory, Putin has effectively created a deadlock, which forces both the regime and the opposition to engage seriously in the Geneva peace talks.	普京不愿卷入一个可能令阿萨德得以收回大部分叙利亚领土的漫长且代价高昂的战争，而是有效地制造了一个僵局，迫使政府军和反对派认真参与了日内瓦和谈。


In this sense, says Monzer Makhous, a spokesman for the Syrian opposition, Russia’s decision to pull out “changes the entire situation.”	在这个意义上，一如叙利亚反对派发言人蒙泽尔·马库斯(Monzer Makhous)所言，俄罗斯撤军的决定“改变了整个局面”。


What would a political settlement look like?	那么这个政治解决方案将会是什么样的？


One option, which Russia has championed, would be a federal system; indeed, the territorial divisions left behind by the Russians could form the basis of one.	一个由俄罗斯倡导的选项是联邦制； 而俄罗斯人留下的领土划分局势也可以作为基础。


Assad’s Alawites could control territory in the West, running from Latakia in the north to Damascus in the south, and an autonomous Syrian-Kurdish region could be established in the northeast, with the rest of the country being left to the Sunni opposition.	阿萨德的阿拉维派可以控制从北部的拉塔基亚到南部的大马士革一线的西部地区，同时在东北部成立一个叙利亚-库尔德自治地区，其余地界则留给逊尼派反对者们。


Peace is not yet around the corner, though.	但和平并非近在咫尺。


Iran and Saudi Arabia, with their proxies on the ground, remain at loggerheads over how to resolve the conflict; Turkey is engaged in its own war against the Kurds; and the Sunni opposition remains unwilling to compromise.	因为伊朗和沙特两国以及它们在叙利亚的代理人依旧在如何解决冲突的问题上相持不下； 土耳其正在打一场本国对库尔德人的战争；


Should Assad be tempted to recover Aleppo, the Sunni rebels would certainly break the ceasefire and blow up the entire political process.	逊尼派反对势力仍旧不愿妥协。 如果放任阿萨德收复阿勒颇的话，逊尼派叛乱分子肯定会撕毁停火协议并毁灭整个政治进程。


Even without a political settlement, Putin’s strategic achievements are notable.	即使未能达成政治解决方案，普京依然会取得显著的战略成果。


Russia’s military operation saved its imperiled ally, Assad, from defeat and secured its airbase in Latakia and its naval presence there and in Tartus. These strongholds will allow him to challenge US and NATO control in the eastern Mediterranean.	俄罗斯的军事行动令其危在旦夕的盟友阿萨德免于溃败，保障了前者在拉塔基亚的海空军基地以及塔尔图斯的海军基地，并利用些据点继续破坏美国和北约对地中海东部地区的控制。


The bottom line is that Russia has consolidated its position as a power to be reckoned with in the Middle East.	但最根本的一点则是俄罗斯已经巩固了自身作为中东地区一支不可忽视力量的地位。


With the US having largely followed Russia’s lead in the Syrian conflict since the crisis over Assad’s chemical weapons, Middle Eastern leaders now head to Moscow, not Washington, to advance their interests.	由于美国在阿萨德化武危机后的叙利亚冲突局势中往往唯俄罗斯马首是瞻，中东领导人如今纷纷奔赴莫斯科——而非华盛顿特区——来推进自身的利益。


King Salman of Saudi Arabia will visit the Kremlin this month to discuss economic cooperation worth billions of dollars.	沙特国王萨尔曼将于本月前往克里姆林宫洽谈价值数十亿美元的经济合作项目。


As for Saudi Arabia’s nemesis Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s senior counselor, Ali Akbar Velayati, was in Moscow in February.	至于沙特的死对头伊朗，哈梅内伊的高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提早在二月已经到过莫斯科。


Israel, for its part, risked a diplomatic crisis with Australia last month by abruptly canceling an official visit by President Reuven Rivlin, who instead headed to Moscow for an urgent meeting with Putin. (And this occurred just after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu canceled a planned meeting with Obama in Washington, without even bothering to communicate that officially to the White House.)	而以色列总统鲁文·里夫林则冒着爆发外交危机的风险在上月突然取消对澳大利亚的正式访问，转而前往莫斯科与普京举行紧急磋商——而就在此前不久以色列总理内塔尼亚胡甚至在没有正式知会白宫的情况下就突然取消了在华盛顿与奥巴马的计划会议。


For Israel, Russia’s military offensive was a boon, as it will prevent the Iran-Hezbollah-Assad axis from dictating the Syrian conflict’s outcome.	对以色列来说，俄罗斯的军事进攻是一个福音，因为这将阻止伊朗-真主党-阿萨德主宰叙利亚冲突的进程。


Having coordinated fully with the Russians on the Syrian front, the Israelis now expect Putin to work to keep Iranian forces away from their border on the Golan Heights, and to help bring United Nations observers back to the area.	通过与俄罗斯在叙利亚前线全面合作，以色列如今希望普京能阻止伊朗武装逼近其戈兰高地边境，并帮助联合国观察员回归该地区。


To be sure, Putin is nowhere near securing a return to the Soviet Union’s imperial days in the Middle East – not least because Russia’s capacity to sustain a military operation beyond its borders remains severely limited.	可以肯定，普京基本不可能再恢复苏联帝国在中东地区的荣光——不仅因为俄罗斯维持其境外军事行动的能力依然极为有限。


But his smart use of hard power to achieve specific, achievable objectives in Syria has made Russia a focal point for the major actors in the Middle East – creating a serious geopolitical challenge for the US.	但他巧妙地运用硬实力并以此在叙利亚达成了一系列具体且可实现的目标，使得俄罗斯成为了中东地区各重要势力的焦点——也对美国构成了严重的地缘政治挑战。


The next American president, it is clear, will have to rethink US regional strategy.	很明显，下一任美国总统将为此不得不重新考虑美国的地区战略。


Toward a Rust Belt Powerhouse	通往锈带强区


LONDON – A few days ago, US President-elect Donald Trump took to Twitter – his medium of choice – to declare that he did not need China’s permission to contact Taiwan, because China didn’t ask for permission to devalue its currency.	伦敦—几天前，美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普发Twitter——他选择Twitter作为媒介——宣布他不需要中国的允许才能联络台湾，因为中国也没有要求允许人民币贬值。


At that moment, my hope that the Trump shake-up would be economically beneficial for the United States diminished.	当时，我希望特朗普的地震式改组能在经济上有利于衰落的美国。


I believe that the developed economies need a jolt to escape their post-2008 malaise and their excessive reliance on easy monetary policy.	我认为，发达经济体需要一次地震来摆脱2008年后的疲软以及对宽松货币政策的过度依赖。


Given Trump’s propensity for shaking things up, he seemed a good candidate for the job.	特朗普行事总是出人意表，看上去是这一任务的上佳人选。


But if the Trump disruption were actually going to help the US, it would need to focus on economic essentials, rather than simplistic – and often false – populist memes.	但如果特朗普的破坏真的要有利于美国，就应该专注于经济实质，而不是简单化的——常常也是错误的——民粹主义模因（memes）。


Judging by his accusations against China, it seems that Trump is simply stirring the pot and riling up his supporters – not advancing any kind of constructive agenda.	从他对中国的诘难看，特朗普简直就是一根搅屎棍，正在激怒他的支持者——他没有推进任何建设性日程。


After all, any reasonable observer of China – including some of Trump’s own advisers, with whom I have worked in the past – knows that the country has not devalued its currency for some time.	毕竟，理性的中国观察家——包括特朗普本人的一些顾问，我过去曾与他们共事过——明白，人民币升值已经有一段时间了。


Yes, the Chinese renminbi has declined recently against the dollar, but not as much as the Japanese yen, the euro, or the British pound – and those declines have been driven by relative confidence in the US economy.	诚然，最近人民币兑美元有所贬值，但贬值幅度不及日元、欧元和英镑——并且这些贬值也不是因为对美国经济信心相对较强而导致的。


In any case, the Chinese have a trade-weighted exchange-rate policy, not one based on keeping the renminbi at some targeted level relative to the dollar.	无论如何，中国实施贸易加权汇率政策，其政策基础并不是将人民币盯住某个美元水平。


Instead of accusing China of undermining US companies’ competitiveness, Trump should be focused on a genuine pro-growth strategy.	特朗普不应该指责中国破坏美国公司的竞争力，而应该专注于真正的促增长战略。


Such a strategy could follow the British “northern powerhouse” model – which I helped to create as a member of the government – focused on revitalizing the economies of the former heartland of British manufacturing.	促增长战略可以效仿英国的“北方强区”模式——我在英国政府供职时帮助制定了这一战略——它的核心是复兴昔日英国制造业心脏地带的经济。


London is the only city in the United Kingdom that ranks in the world’s top 50.	伦敦是英国唯一跻身世界前50大城市的代表。


That is a big deal in a world where, for the last 20 years, cities have accounted for more than 60% of economic growth, wealth expansion, and gains in living standards.	这是一件大事，在过去20年中，城市贡献了世界经济增长、财富扩张和生活水平提高的60%强。


Individually, the far smaller cities in England’s north cannot really compete with that.	如果各自为政的话，英格兰北部的小城市根本无法与世界竞争。


But, by linking together major cities – including Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds, and Liverpool – the north could become far more unified, with seven million people acting as a single regional economy, thereby providing many of the agglomeration benefits of major global cities.	但是，如果将主要城市连接起来——包括曼彻斯特、谢菲尔德、利兹和利物浦——英格兰北方就能统一起来、与其七百万人口组成一个地区经济体，从而产生全球大城市所具备的诸多凝聚效应。


And, indeed, the distances between Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, and Sheffield are smaller than the distances covered by the Central, District, and Piccadilly lines in the London Underground.	而事实上，曼彻斯特、利兹、利物浦和谢菲尔德之间的距离比伦敦地铁中央线、地方线和皮卡迪利线所覆盖的距离还要短。


With affordable state-of-the-art transport systems, therefore, it seems clear that these cities could take advantage of urban agglomeration benefits.	因此，如果具备平价快捷交通系统，显然这些城市是能够利用城市凝聚效应的。


Of course, the cities of England’s north are proud of their unique histories and eager to maintain their individual sense of identity.	当然，英格兰北部城市自豪于独特的历史，渴望保持个体身份意识。


None of this would be taken away from them.	它们不会失去历史和个体身份。


While it is understandable that some have viewed the northern powerhouse strategy as a platform for emphasizing their own superiority, this is unhelpful, not least because it causes some decision-makers in the central government to doubt the project’s relevance.	不难理解，一些人将北方强区张略视为强调自身优越感的平台，这是无益的，因为这让中央政府的一些决策者质疑这一工程的重要性。


Why invest so much in these cities, when so many other areas of the country are also struggling?	为什么要对这些城市进行如此多的投资？ 全国有很多地方日子都不好过。


The only answer is precisely the opportunity to reap the benefits of integration.	唯一的答案正在于获得融合效应的机会。


Fortunately, despite some doubts, the UK government has announced efforts to kick-start some of the necessary transport links, with the goal of shortening the Leeds-Manchester train journey to 30 minutes.	幸运的是，尽管受到了一些质疑，英国政府已经宣布开始启动一些必要的交通线路，目标是将利兹-曼彻斯特的火车运行时间缩短到30分钟。


But other elements of the northern powerhouse plan are just as important, especially the devolution of significant decision-making powers – and some spending and revenue powers – to the city level, in exchange for electing mayors (something the UK can learn from the US).	但北方强区计划中的其他要素也很重要，特别是重大决策权——以及一些收支权——下放到市级，以换取市长选举（这方面英国可以学习美国）。


After all, England is probably the most politically centralized economy in the OECD – a reality that probably contributes to its deep regional imbalances.	毕竟，英格兰也许是经合组织中政治最集中化的经济体——其深刻的地区失衡可能就源于这一事实。


Beyond devolution and transport, England’s north needs to improve dramatically the education and skills of its labor force, in order to attract and retain cutting-edge companies.	除了放权和交通，英格兰北部还需要大幅改善劳动力技能教育，以吸引和留住尖端公司。


Plans to replicate some of the remarkable improvements in London and southeast England’s educational attainment of the last 20 years are ambitious but achievable.	复制过去20年伦敦和英格兰东南部所取得的令人瞩目的教育程度改善算得上是一个宏大的目标，但可以实现。


The reality is that, with greater decision-making authority and more linkages and skills, England’s northern cities could become far more dynamic, potentially reversing decades of relative economic decline.	现实是，拥有了更大的决策权和更强的联系和技能，英格兰北部城市能够大大增加活力，有望扭转几十年来经济相对衰落的趋势。


In fact, I would venture to predict that the northern powerhouse project, which has already attracted the attention of local and foreign investors, will be one of the UK’s most important structural economic policies for many years to come.	事实上，我愿意打赌北方强区工程——目前它已经吸引了本地和外国投资者的注意——将是未来多年英国最重要的结构性经济政策。


That is why it is critical that UK leaders continue to advance it.	因此，英国领导人继续推进该工程至关重要。


The northern powerhouse strategy provides valuable lessons for other countries.	北方强区战略为其他国家提供了非常重要的经验。


Already, China is pursuing a similar regional development strategy, aimed at revitalizing its old northern industrial belt, thereby taking some of the pressure off its ultra-dynamic coastal cities.	目前，中国已开始实施一项类似的地区发展战略，即振兴东北老工业基地，从而缓解活力最盛的沿海城市的压力。


The US should follow suit, with a plan to revitalize the so-called Rust Belt that was integral to Trump’s victory.	美国也应该跟进，制定计划复兴所谓的锈带。 锈带也为特朗普的胜利立下了汗马功劳。


As an added benefit, such an approach could spur “competitive envy” in other sluggish regions.	这一方针有一个附加的好处，它可以刺激其他滞后地区的“竞争嫉妒”。


That is what has happened in the UK, with progress in England’s north spurring some to argue for, say, a “Midlands engine,” covering the other major urban-based UK area outside of London, with many cities in close proximity to one another.	英国就是如此，英格兰北部的进步刺激一些人提出了（比如）“中部引擎”，其区域覆盖伦敦以外的其他英国主要城市地区，其中许多城市彼此非常接近。


Of course, the US is much larger than England, and its old industrial cities are much farther apart.	当然，美国要比英格兰大得多，其老工业城市彼此之间也远得多。


But some of the ideas that have animated the northern powerhouse could enrich Trump’s economic plans considerably.	但让北方强区计划获得勃勃生机的一些思想可以大大丰富特朗普的经济计划。


Given that infrastructure investment is a key element of his agenda, and that devolution of powers to the states is popular among US Republicans, there certainly seems to be space for such an approach.	基础设施投资是特朗普日程的重要组成部分，放权给州也是美国共和党的流行做法，因此，美国绝对有采取这一方针的空间。


A Formula for Health Equity	医疗平等的秘诀


KIGALI – Imagine a country where some 90% of the population is covered by health insurance, more than 90% of those with HIV are on a consistent drug regime, and 93% of children are vaccinated against common communicable diseases including HPV.	基加利—想象一个国家，其90%的人口有医保覆盖，90%的艾滋病毒携带者享受长期药物治疗，93%的儿童接种了包括HPV在内的常规传染病疫苗。


Where would you guess this enchanted land of medical equity is?	你猜这片迷人的医疗平等土地在哪里？


Scandinavia?	斯堪的纳维亚？


Costa Rica?	哥斯达黎加？


Narnia?	纳尼亚？


Try Africa – Rwanda, to be precise.	往非洲猜——准确地说，是卢旺达。


In my native country, health care is a right guaranteed for all, not a privilege reserved for the rich and powerful.	在我的祖国，医疗是所有人都能保证拥有的权利，而不是富人和权贵所专有的特权。


Rwanda remains poor, but, over the past 15 years, its health care advances have gained global attention, for good reason.	卢旺达仍然很穷，但是，在过去15年中，其医疗进步引起了全球关注，这名副其实。


In 2000, life expectancy at birth was just 48 years; today, it’s 67.	2000年，卢旺达出生寿命预期只有48岁； 如今为67岁。


International aid has helped, but our achievements have come primarily from other, non-financial innovations.	国际援助起到了一定作用，但我们的成就主要来自其他非金融创新。


For starters, Rwanda has established a collaborative, cluster approach to governance that allows us to achieve more with the same amount of funding.	首先，卢旺达采取了一套合作性、集群式的治理方针，实现少花钱多办事。


Moreover, our civil servants embrace problem solving, demonstrating a level of resourcefulness that has produced many localized solutions to human development challenges such as ensuring food security and adequate supplies of clean water and housing.	此外，我们的公务员注重解决问题，表现出一定程度的足智多谋，发明了许多地方化的方案以解决诸如确保食品安全、清洁水和住房的充足供应等人类发展挑战。


But perhaps the most important factor behind our dramatic health-care gains has been the national equity agenda, which sets targets for supporting the needy and tracks progress toward meeting them.	但我们之所以在医疗方面取得如此重大的进步，也许最重要的因素是国家平等日程，它制定了支持需要的人、追踪他们的需要满足情况的目标。


Since implementing this approach, Rwanda has managed to decrease the percentage of people living in extreme poverty from 40% of the population in 2000 to 16.3% in 2015	自该方针实施以来，卢旺达极端贫困人口比例已从2000年的40% 下降到2016年的16. 3%。


Aside from the obvious benefits, these gains matter because, as UNICEF recently noteda country’s potential return on investment in social services for vulnerable children is two times greater when the benefits reach the most vulnerable.	除了显而易见的好处，这些收益的重要性还体现在，如联合国儿童基金会最近所指出，一国针对脆弱儿童的社会服务投资的潜在回报，在福利抵达最脆弱群体的情况下，能够提高两倍。


In other words, Rwanda has achieved so much so fast because we are enjoying higher rates of return by investing in the poorest.	换句话说，卢旺达之所以能以如此快的速度取得如此大的成就，是因为我们投资于最贫困人群，从而获得了更高的回报率。


In working toward health equity, Rwanda has made accessibility a top priority.	在医疗平等性工作方面，卢旺达将医疗服务的普及度作为重中之重。


As of 2016, nine out of ten Rwandans were enrolled in one of the country’s health insurance programs.	2016年，九成卢旺达人民在国家医疗保险计划之一注册。


The majority of the population is enrolled in the Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) scheme, which has increased access to health care for Rwanda’s most vulnerable citizens by waiving fees.	发部分人口在社区医保（CBHI）注册，该机制通过减免医疗费用，提高了卢旺达最脆弱公民群体的医疗普及。


As a result, the reach of health-care coverage in Rwanda is high by global standards – all the more remarkable for a country that suffered the horrors of genocide a generation ago.	因此，从全球标准衡量，卢旺达的医疗覆盖率是相当高的——考虑到这个国家经历大屠杀恐慌不出一代人时间，这一成就更加令人印象深刻。


Consider the situation in the US: while the rate of uninsured Americans has dropped precipitously under the 2010 Affordable Care Act, the insured face rapid increases in premiums and out-of-pocket expenses.	以美国的情况为例：在2010年平价医疗法的作用下，无医保美国人比例大幅下降，但参保美国人面临保费和自费开支的迅速上涨。


Perhaps the US should consider adopting a CBHI-type program, to reduce further the number of Americans facing financial barriers to medical care.	也许美国应该考虑采取CBHI计划，以进一步减少面临医药费困难的美国人的数量。


Rwanda has crafted health care delivery with access in mind as well, by deploying community health workers (CHWs) to the country’s 15,000 villages.	卢旺达也充分重视医疗服务的实现，在国内15,000个村庄部署了社区医务工作者（CHW）。


These local practitioners serve as the gatekeepers to a system that has reduced waiting times and financial burdens by treating patients directly – often at patients’ homes.	这些本地参与者起到了医疗体系看门人的作用，通过直接治疗病人——通常是在病人家中，降低了候诊时间和财务负担。


The US could also benefit from a CHW program.	美国也可以从CHW计划中获益。


The US is brimming with educated young people who, as CHWs, could bridge the gap between medical facilities and patients, thereby improving American social capital and health outcomes.	美国有充足的受过教育的年轻人，由他们担任CHW可以在医疗设施和病患之间的构建一座桥梁，从而改善美国的社会资本和健康状况。


As Rwanda’s experience has demonstrated, such programs not only broaden access to health care; they also lower overall costs by reducing unnecessary hospitalizations.	卢旺达的经验表明，这些计划不但能扩大医疗的普及度； 还能通过减少非必要的入院治疗降低总成本。


Such programs have been shown to be transferable.	这些计划已经证明是可以“移植”的。


Starting in 1997, Brigham and Women’s Hospital supported the HIV+ community of Boston through the Prevention and Access to Care and Treatment (PACT) program.	从1997年开始，布里汉姆和妇女医院（Brigham and Women’s Hospital）通过预防和获得医护（PACT）计划，支持感染HIV的波士顿社区。


That initiative was based on the CHW model implemented in rural Haiti by Partners In Health – a non-profit health-care organization that integrates CHWs into primary care and mental health.	该计划的基础便是由卫生合作伙伴组织（Partners In Health）在海地农村所实施的CHW模式。 卫生合作伙伴组织是一个将CHW与初级看护和精神卫生相结合的非营利性医疗组织。


As a result of that initiative, the government insurer Medicaid spent less money on hospital stays, and inpatient expenditures fell by 62%.	拜该计划所赐，政府保险商医疗补助（Medicaid）所支付的住院费用减少了，医院内支出降低了62%。


Other US communities could, and should, incorporate similar models into their treatment programs for chronic conditions.	其他美国社区可以也应该将类似的模式纳入到慢性病治疗计划中。


Innovation is what kick-started Rwanda’s health-care revival, and progressive thinking is what drives it forward today.	创新是卢旺达医疗复兴的推动因素，而进步思维（progressive thinking）则是推动卢旺达医疗继续向前的力量。


For example, health centers established throughout the country provide vaccinations and treat illnesses that village-level CHWs cannot, and have extended obstetrics services to the majority of Rwandan women.	比如，在卢旺达全国所建立的医疗中心提供村级CHW无法处理的接种和疾病治疗，并为大部分卢旺达妇女提供各种产科服务。


Broadening access further, each district in Rwanda has one hospital, and each region in the country has a referral or teaching hospital with specialists to handle more difficult cases.	卢旺达的每个区都有一家医院，而每个地区都有一家参考或教学医院，由专家处理疑难杂症，这进一步扩大了医疗普及度。


While some hospitals still suffer from staff shortages, the government has sought to patch these holes through an initiative that employs faculty from over 20 US institutions to assist in training our clinical specialists.	尽管一些医院仍饱受人手不足之苦，但政府已经开始填补这一空缺，启动了一项从20多家美国机构聘请专家协助本国临床专家的计划。


In just over two decades, thanks to homegrown solutions and international collaboration, Rwanda has dramatically reduced the burden of disease on its people and economy.	在短短二十多年时间里，在本土方案和国际合作的作用下，卢旺达大幅缩小了疾病给其人民和经济所造成的负担。


As we look forward, our goal is to educate tomorrow’s leaders to build on the equitable health-care system that we have created.	放眼未来，我们的目标是教育明天的领导人在我们已经创造出来的基础上构建平等的医疗体系。


This is the mission of the University of Global Health Equity, a new university based in rural Rwanda that has made fairness, collaboration, and innovation its guiding principles.	这是全球医疗平等大学（University of Global Health Equity）使命。 这所新大学扎根于卢旺达农村，以公平、合作和创新作为其指导原则。


As a Rwandan doctor who contributed to building my country’s health-care system from its infancy, I am proud of what we have accomplished in so short a time.	作为一名为我国白手起家建立医疗体系做出过贡献的医生，我非常自豪于我们在如此短的时间内所取得的成就。


It wasn’t magic; it was a formula.	这不是魔法； 这是秘诀。


Through continued global cooperation, other countries, including developed ones, can learn to apply it.	通过全球合作，其他国家，包括发达国家，也可以学习运用。


The Heart of Africa’s New Medical School	非洲新医学院的核心


SAN FRANCISCO – Rwanda has achieved some of the most dramatic gains in health and poverty-reduction in the world.	旧金山—卢旺达取得了全世界医疗和减贫方面最重大的成果。


This small, landlocked African country (the size of Massachusetts, but with twice the population) has developed a primary health-care system with near-universal access to clinical care and insurance.	这个非洲内陆弹丸之国（面积相当于马萨诸塞州，但人口倍之）的初级医疗体系已经发展到几乎全民都能获得临床护理和保险。


Rwanda has reduced both economic and health-care inequality, and demonstrates how “health equity” helps to build strong societies.	卢旺达同时降低了经济和医疗不平等性，证明“健康平等”有助于构建强大的社会。


The secret to Rwanda’s success is that its leaders are building “modern institutions on traditional values.”	卢旺达成功的秘诀是其领导人正在建设“以传统价值观为基础的现代制度”。


They built a system of community justice, called Gacaca, which integrated their need for nationwide reconciliation with an ancient tradition of clemency.	他们建立了社区司法系统，称之为“加卡卡”（Gacaca），这套系统将全国和解的需要与仁慈的古老传统相融合。


They breathed life back into a civic tradition of Umuganda, where one day a month, citizens, including the president, gather together to weed their fields, clean their streets, and build homes for the poorest among them.	它们的源头可以追溯到“乌姆甘达”（Umuganda）的民间传统，每个月的某一天，包括总统在内的全体公民一起为土地除草，为街道打扫卫生，为最穷的人造房子。


In 2015, the government of Rwanda and the Boston-based Partners In Health (PIH), with the help of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Cummings Foundation, established the private, not-for-profit University of Global Health Equity (UGHE).	2015年，卢旺达政府与波士顿卫生合作组织（Partners In Health，PIH）在比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会和康明斯基金会（Cummings Foundation）的帮助下，成立了私立的非营利全球健康平等性大学（University of Global Health Equity，UGHE）。