But the IBM team had not cheated.	但IBM的团队没有作弊。


Rather, through a combination of ingenious software and massive parallel computing power, they had produced a silicon-based entity capable of such finesse and subtlety, that international chess grandmasters worldwide (including me) were simply amazed.	相反，通过把独创性的软件和强大的平行运算能力结合在一起，他们成功地缔造出一台以硅晶片为介质的实体，这台机器掌握了如此精密微妙的运算技巧，以至于全世界所有的国际象棋大师（包括我本人在内）都大吃一惊。


Since 1997, the computers have only gotten better, to the point where computer programmers no longer find beating humans a great challenge.	1997年后，电脑已经如此进步，以至于程序员们可以把战胜人类当作小菜一碟。


Only a game, you say?	你说这只是一场游戏？


Perhaps, but let me tell you this: when I played professional chess 30 years ago (I once represented the United States in the World Chess Championship cycle), I felt I could tell a lot about someone’s personality by seeing a sampling of their games, even those of an amateur.	也许你是对的，但让我告诉你：30年前我专业从事国际象棋的时候（我曾经代表美国队参加国际象棋世界冠军循环赛），我感到自己可以通过看别人的棋谱了解那个人的个性状况，国际象棋的业余爱好者也不例外。


Until a short while ago, I could certainly distinguish a computer from a human opponent.	不久以前，我还可以轻易地对电脑和真人对手加以区分。


Now everything changed like lightning.	如今一切都发生了变化。


The machines can now even be set to imitate famous human players – including their flaws – so well that only an expert eye (and sometimes only another computer!) can tell the difference.	电脑甚至可以模拟著名的真人棋手¾包括他们的缺点¾电脑都能模拟得惟妙惟肖，只有专业棋手（有时甚至只有另一台电脑！ ）才能看出其中的差别。


More than half a century ago, the godfather of artificial intelligence, Alan Turing, argued that the brain’s function could all be reduced to mathematics and that, someday, a computer would rival human intelligence.	半个多世纪以前，人工智能领域的教父阿兰·图灵（Alan Turing）提出大脑的功能可以全部归结为数学运算，而且终有一天，电脑能够达到人类的智能。


He claimed that the ultimate proof of artificial intelligence would be met if a human interrogator were unable to figure out that he was conversing with a computer.	他提出实现终极人工智能的佐证是真人在进行对��时，无法知晓与自己对话的其实是一台电脑。


The “Turing test” is the holy grail of artificial intelligence research.	“图灵测试”被视作人工智能研究领域的圣杯。


Well, for me, a chess game is a conversation of sorts.	对我来讲，象棋比赛是一种逻辑会话。


From my perspective, today’s off-the-shelf computer programs come awfully close to meeting Turing’s test.	而且在我看来，今天已有的电脑程序与图灵测试的要求几乎相差无几。


Over the course of a small number of games on the Internet, I could not easily tell the difference.	从几次网上对弈所了解的情况看，我很难发现其中的差别。


True, today’s computers have not evolved to the level of the deranged chess-playing HAL in the filmmaker Stanley Kubrick’s masterpiece “2001: A Space Odyssey,” much less Arnold Schwarzenegger-like droids from the Terminator movies.	没错，今天的电脑还没有达到斯坦利·库布里克（Stanley Kubrick）导演在其代表作《2001：太空漫游》中塑造的疯狂电脑HAL所能达到的水准，更不用说《终结者》系列影片中阿诺德·施瓦辛格（Arnold Schwarzenegger）式的机器人了。


But the level that computers have reached already is scary enough.	但电脑现有的水准已经足以令人毛骨悚然。


What’s next?	接下来会发生什么？


I certainly don’t feel safe as an economics professor!	我觉得自己作为经济学教授的地位一点都不稳固！


I have no doubt that sometime later this century, one will be able to buy pocket professors – perhaps with holographic images – as easily as one can buy a pocket Kasparov chess computer today.	我毫不怀疑地确信：本世纪晚些时候，人们可以买到袖珍教授¾没准还带有教授的全息影像¾就像今天购买袖珍卡斯帕罗夫象棋电脑那样易如反掌。


So let’s go back to India and China.	让我们回头看看印度和中国。


Globalization proceeded at a rapid pace through much of the last century, and at a particularly accelerated rate during its last two decades.	全球化在上个世纪的多数时候都快速发展， 近20年来的发展更是尤为迅速。


Yet the vast body of evidence suggests that technological changes were a much bigger driver in global wage patterns than trade.	但多数证据显示：技术变革能够比贸易更有效地推动全球薪酬格局的发展。


That is, technology, not trade, was the big story of the twentieth-century economy (of course, the two interact, with trade helping to diffuse and stimulate technology, but this is a matter of semantics.)	也就是说，技术，而非贸易，才是21世纪经济的主题（当然，这两者相互影响，贸易刺激技术发展，推动技术传播，但这恐怕更多的是一种文字游戏）。


Are we so sure that it will be different in this century?	我们能否确定这个世纪会发生变化？


Or will artificial intelligence replace the mantra of outsourcing and manufacturing migration?	人工智能能否彻底取代外包和制造业迁移所设下的咒语？


Chess players already know the answer.	棋手们其实早已知道这个问题的答案。


Education in the Second Machine Age	第二次机器时代的教育


MUNICH – Artificial intelligence, once confined to the realm of science fiction, is changing our lives.	慕尼黑—人工智能曾经仅限于科幻小说，但如今正在改变我们的生活。


Cars are driving themselves.	汽车自己会驾驶。


Drones are being programmed to deliver packages.	无人机可以设定程序用于递送包裹。


Computers are learning to diagnose diseases.	计算机正在学习诊断疾病。


In a recent book, the economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee describe these recent advances as examples of the beginning of what they call “the second machine age.”	经济学家埃里克·布莱恩约尔弗森（Erik Brynjolfsson）和安德鲁·迈克菲（Andrew McAfee）在他们的新书中将这些最新进步描述为他们所谓的“第二次机器时代”开始的例子。


The very name – the first machine age was the Industrial Revolution – suggests an epochal shift.	这个名字——第一次机器时代是工业革命——暗示了一个划时代的变化。


And, indeed, if the predictions are to be believed, these technological advances could have profound implications for the way we live.	事实上，如果预言可信，这些技术进步能够给我们的生活带来深远影响。


One common forecast is that as ever-more advanced robots substitute workers, the cost of labor will become less important, and manufacturing will move back to rich countries.	一个普遍的预测是，随着越来越先进的机器人开始取代工人，劳动力成本将变得越来越不重要，制造业将回流富裕国家。


Another is that increasingly intelligent machines will reduce the demand for advanced skills, and that the economic advantage of having these skills will decline as a result.	另一个预测是日益智能的机器将减少对高级技能的需求，拥有这些技能所带来的经济优势也将因此缩水。


The first of these two hypotheses remains far-fetched.	这两个假说的第一个仍然有些牵强。


But there is evidence that the second has already started to come to pass, with serious implications for the way that modern economies have attempted to meet the challenges of globalization.	但有证据表明第二个假说正在成为现实，对现代经济面临全球化挑战的应对方式造成着巨大影响。


To be sure, there has been plenty of anecdotal evidence of “reshoring” – the relocation of jobs from low-wage countries to high-wage economies.	诚然，有大量非正式证据表明“回岸”（reshoring）正在发生——即就业岗位从低薪酬国家重新回到高薪酬国家。


Apple is shifting some manufacturing from China to Silicon Valley; Airtex Design Group is moving part of its textile production from China back to the United States.	苹果公司正在把一些制造业务从中国迁回硅谷； Airtex设计集团正在将一部分纺织生产从中国迁回美国。


In a recent survey of 384 firms in the eurozone by the management consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers, two-thirds of the respondents said that they had reshored some activities during the past year, and 50% plan to do so in the next.	普华永道管理咨询公司对384家欧元区企业的最新调查中，三分之二的受访者表示在过去一年中实施了一些回岸动作，50%的受访者表示准备在明年这样做。


But when one looks at the data, there is no sign of reshoring.	但数据并没有表现出回岸信号。


Indeed, the trend is continuing in the opposite direction.	事实上，趋势仍与回岸背道而驰。


Offshoring dropped during the Great Recession that followed the 2008 global financial crisis, but quickly rebounded, accelerating past pre-crisis levels.	离岸自2008年全球金融危机引发大衰退以来有所下降，但随后马上发生了反弹，并加速超过了危机前水平。


For the moment, the return of manufacturing to rich countries remains a prediction, not an outcome.	眼下，制造业回归富裕国家仍然只是预言而不是结果。


Evaluating the second hypothesis is more complicated.	评估第二个假说更加复杂。


At first glance, the evidence supports the possibility that demand for advanced skills is falling.	咋一看，证据支持对高级技能需求下降的可能性。


With the exceptions of the US and Germany, the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers has been declining in all Western countries in the last 17 years.	在过去17年中，除了美国和德国，所有西方国家高技能工人和非高技能工人之间的薪酬差都有所缩小。


One possible explanation is that education levels in Europe outstripped the pace of technological change, oversupplying the market for advanced skills.	一个可能的解释是欧洲教育水平超过了技术变化的速度，高级技能出现了过度供给。


In Austria, the share of people with a university degree or its equivalent increased by 250% between 1996 and 2012.	在奥地利，拥有大学文凭或同等学力的人口比例在1996到2012年间增长了250%。


In the United Kingdom and Italy, it almost doubled.	在英国和意大利，这一比例接近翻番。


In Spain, it jumped by 70%, and in France by 60%.	在西班牙，该比例上升70%，法国则是60%。


By comparison, in the US and Germany, the share of the population with a tertiary education rose by a more modest 25%.	相反，美国和德国高等教育学历拥有者比例只是略微升高了25%。


It is also possible, however, that the drop in the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers represents competition from increasingly intelligent machines.	但是，另一个可能是高技能和非高技能工人薪酬差距缩小体现了机器的日益智能化。


Here, the US is a case in point.	在这方面，美国是一个典型。


Because educational attainment has been advancing only modestly in the US since the turn of the century, we would expect the wage gap to be rising steeply, as it did in the 1980s and 1990s.	自世纪之交以来，美国的教育入学率只是略有增加，因此，我们应该预期薪酬差距会显著增加，就像20世纪八九十年代那样。


Instead, it has remained largely unchanged, and it is the unemployment rate among skilled workers that is on the rise, doubling in the US and the United Kingdom from 2000 to 2012.	相反，薪酬差距基本保持不变，增加的是高技能工人的失业率，2000—2012年，该指标在美国和英国增加了一倍。


Until the 1980s, about 70% of income went to labor income and 30% to capital income.	20世纪80年代前，大约70%的收入属于劳动收入，30%为资本收入。


But, since then, the share of income going to labor has declined in all rich countries.	但是，自此以后，收入归属劳动的比例在所有富裕国家都有所下降。


It is now at about 58% of GDP.	如今这一比例为GDP的58%。


According to research by the economists Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman, half of this decline is the result of cheaper information technology, which has enabled firms to replace workers with computers.	根据经济学家卢卡斯·卡拉巴波尼斯（Loukas Karabarbounis）和布伦特·尼曼（Brent Neiman）的研究，这一下降有一半要归因于更加廉价的信息技术，信息技术的廉价化让企业得以用计算机取代工人。


The implications are serious.	影响是严重的。


If these are indeed the first signs of the second machine age, it is possible that we have been fighting the wrong battle.	如果这些确实是第二次机器时代的第一批信号，有可能我们正在打一场错误的战争。


As the scarcity of human capital declines in importance, the rapid expansion of education may not be the answer to the challenges of globalization that we hoped it would be.	随着人力资本稀缺日益变得不重要，教育的快速��张也许并非如我们所愿的那样是全球化挑战的答案。


On the Cusp of an AI Revolution	站在人工智能革命的风口浪尖


SAN FRANCISCO – Over the last 30 years, consumers have reaped the benefits of dramatic technological advances.	旧金山——过去三十年来，消费者已经从激动人心的技术进步中获益匪浅。


In many countries, most people now have in their pockets a personal computer more powerful than the mainframes of the 1980s.	在很多国家，大多数人揣在口袋里的个人电脑比二十世纪八十年代的大型计算机运算能力更强。


The Atari 800XL computer that I developed games on when I was in high school was powered by a microprocessor with 3,500 transistors; the computer running on my iPhone today has two billion transistors.	高中时我用来开发游戏的Atari 800XL电脑其微处理器拥有3，500个晶体管； 而今天我的iPhone 上运行的电脑其晶体管数达到20亿个之多。


Back then, a gigabyte of storage cost $100,000 and was the size of a refrigerator; today it’s basically free and is measured in millimeters.	当时，1GB的存储装置耗资100,000美元，而且有冰箱大小； 今天它几乎不花钱，尺寸也以毫米计量。


Even with these massive gains, we can expect still faster progress as the entire planet – people and things – becomes connected.	即使取得了如此大的进步，我们仍然可以在整个星球——包括所有人和物——联网的过程中期待更快的进步。


Already, five billion people have access to a mobile device, and more than three billion people can access the Internet.	已经有50亿人使用移动设备，超过 30亿人可以接入互联网。


In the coming years, 50 billion things – from light bulbs to refrigerators, roads, clothing, and more – will be connected to the Internet as well.	未来若干年，500亿件物品——从灯泡到冰箱、道路、服装等诸如此类——也将连接到互联网。


Every generation or so, emerging technologies converge, and something revolutionary occurs.	每过一代人左右，新兴技术就会出现融合，某种革命性的技术因此而诞生。


For example, a maturing Internet, affordable bandwidth and file-compression, and Apple’s iconic iPhone enabled companies such as Uber, Airbnb, YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter to redefine the mobile-customer experience.	比方说，成熟的互联网、廉价的带宽和文件压缩，以及苹果标志性的iPhone使得像Uber,、Airbnb、 YouTube、Facebook和Twitter这样的企业重新定义移动客户体验。


Now we are on the cusp of another major convergence: big data, machine learning, and increased computing power will soon make artificial intelligence, or AI, ubiquitous.	现在我们正站在另一次大规模融合的风口浪尖上：大数据、机器学习和不断提高的计算能力将很快使人工智能（AI）无处不在。


AI follows Albert Einstein’s dictum that genius renders simplicity from complexity.	人工智能符合爱因斯坦的那句格言，即天才能将复杂事物简单化。


So, as the world itself becomes more complex, AI will become the defining technology of the twenty-first century, just as the microprocessor was in the twentieth century.	因此，在世界本身越来越复杂的同时，人工智能将成为21世纪的决定性技术，就像微处理器是二十世纪的决定性技术一样。


Consumers already encounter AI on a daily basis.	消费者已经每天都在与人工智能打交道。


Google uses machine learning to autocomplete search queries and often accurately predicts what someone is looking for.	谷歌利用机器学习来自动完成搜索查询，并且往往能够准确预测某个人要找什么。


Facebook and Amazon use predictive algorithms to make recommendations based on a user’s reading or purchasing history.	Facebook 和Amazon 利用预测算法在用户阅读或购买经历的基础上完成推荐工作。


AI is the central component in self-driving cars – which can now avoid collisions and traffic congestion – and in game-playing systems like Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo, a computer that beat South Korean Go master Lee Sedol in a five-game match earlier this year.	人工智能是无人驾驶汽车的核心部件——无人驾驶技术现在可以避免碰撞和交通堵塞——人工智能也是像谷歌DeepMind AlphaGo等游戏系统的核心部件，这台电脑年初在一场五局三胜制的比赛中击败了韩国围棋高手李世石。


Given AI’s wide applications, all companies today face an imperative to integrate it into their products and services; otherwise, they will not be able to compete with companies that are using data-collection networks to improve customer experiences and inform business decisions.	鉴于人工智能的广泛应用，今天的所有企业都必须要将它们融入自己的产品和服务； 否则，他们将无法与利用数据搜集网络改善用户体验和辅助商业决策的企业展开竞争。


The next generation of consumers will have grown up with digital technologies and will expect companies to anticipate their needs and provide instant, personalized responses to any query.	下一代消费者将会与数字技术共同成长，他们会期望公司预见他们的需求，并实时、个性化地提供咨询服务。


So far, AI has been too costly or complex for many businesses to make optimal use of it.	迄今为止，人工智能太过复杂昂贵，以致很多企业很难对其进行最佳应用。


It can be difficult to integrate into a business’s existing operations, and historically it has required highly skilled data scientists.	将其融入企业现有业务难度很大，历史上一直需要掌握复杂技术的数据学家才能完成这项任务。


As a result, many businesses still make important decisions based on instinct instead of information.	结果导致很多企业仍然凭直觉而不是信息作出重要决策。


This will change in the next few years, as AI becomes more pervasive, potentially making every company and every employee smarter, faster, and more productive.	今后几年这一切都将发生改变，随着人工智能越来越普及，可能使每间企业、每位员工都变得更加聪明、快速和高效。


Machine learning algorithms can analyze billions of signals to route customer service calls automatically to the most appropriate agent or determine which customers are most likely to purchase a particular product.	机器学习算法可以分析数以十亿计的信号，从而将客户服务电话自动转接给最合适的代理人，或确定最有可能购买某种特定商品的某位客户。


And AI’s applications extend beyond online retail: Brick-and-mortar stores still account for 90% of retail sales, according to the consultancy A.T. Kearney.	而且人工智能的应用不仅限于在线零售：据A. T.


Soon, when customers enter a physical store, they will be greeted by interactive chat-bots that can recommend products based on shopping history, offer special discounts, and handle customer-service issues.	Kearney咨询公司统计，实体商店依然在零售行业中占据90%的份额。 很快，客户一进入实体店，互动式聊天机器人就会上前跟他们打招呼，机器人可以根据过往的购买历史推荐产品，提供特别折扣并处理客户服务事务。


Advances in so-called “deep learning,” a branch of AI modeled after the brain’s neural network, could enable intelligent digital assistants to help plan vacations with the acumen of a human assistant, or determine consumer sentiments toward a particular brand, based on millions of signals from social networks and other data sources.	所谓“深度学习”（模仿大脑神经网络的人工智能分支）领域的进步可以使智能数字助理在来自社交网络和其他数据来源的数以百万计的信号基础上以人类助理般的敏锐协助客户规划假期、或确定客户对某个品牌的反应。


In health care, deep-learning algorithms could help doctors identify cancer-cell types or intracranial abnormalities from anywhere in the world in real time.	在医疗保健领域，深度学习算法可以协助医生从世界的任何角落实时确定肿瘤细胞类型或颅内异常问题。


To deploy AI effectively, companies will need to keep privacy and security in mind.	要想有效利用人工智能，企业必须对隐私和安全问题时刻保持关注。


Because AI is fueled by data, the more data the machine gains about an individual, the better it can predict their needs and act on their behalf.	因为人工智��基于数据，机器了解的个人数据越多，代表客户预测其需求的准确度就越大。


But, of course, that massive flow of personal data could be appropriated in ways that breach trust.	但当然，这样的个人信息大规模流动可能违反客户的信任。


Companies will have to be transparent about how they use people’s personal data.	企业必须公开其个人数据的使用方式。


AI can also detect and defend against digital security breaches, and will play a critical role in protecting user privacy and building trust.	人工智能还可以检测并防御数字安全漏洞，并在保护用户隐私和建立信任时发挥关键作用。


As in past periods of economic transformation, AI will unleash new levels of productivity, augment our personal and professional lives, and pose existential questions about the age-old relationship between man and machine.	就像过去的经济转型期一样，人工智能将释放新的生产力水平、强化个人和职业生涯并提出有关人和机器间古老关系的存在性问题。


It will disrupt industries and dislocate workers as it automates more tasks.	人工智能在自动完成任务时会扰乱行业和工人。


But just as the Internet did 20 years ago, AI will also improve existing jobs and spawn new ones.	但就像二十年前的互联网那样，人工智能将改善现有岗位并催生新的机遇。


We should expect this and adapt accordingly by providing training for the jobs of tomorrow, as well as safety nets for those who fall behind.	对此我们应当保持清醒的认识，并通过为明天的岗位提供培训和为落伍民众建立安全网来适应明天的环境。


AI is still a long way from surpassing human intelligence.	人工智能超越人类智慧还有很长的路要走。


It has been 60 years since John McCarthy, a computer scientist and nominal father of AI, first introduced the term during a conference at Dartmouth College, and computers have only recently been able to detect cats in YouTube videos or determine the best route to the airport.	距离计算学家和人工智能之父约翰·麦卡锡在达特茅斯学院一次会议期间首次提出人工智能概念已经过去了六十年。 只有到了最近计算机才能识别YouTube视频中的猫或确定前往机场的最佳路线。


We can count on technological innovation to continue at an even more rapid pace than in previous generations.	我们可以肯定今后的技术创新速度将超过前几代人。


AI will become like electrical current – invisible and augmenting almost every part of our lives.	人工智能将像电流般——无形无影，但却充斥着我们的生活。


Thirty years from now, we will wonder how we ever got along without our seemingly telepathic digital assistants, just as today it’s already hard to imagine going more than a few minutes without checking the 1980s mainframe in one’s pocket.	从现在起三十年后，没有貌似心灵感应般的数字助理我们就不知道要怎样生活，就像今天每隔几分钟不看看口袋里那台的二十世纪八十年代的大型计算机就会令人觉得难以想象。


A Russian Spring?	俄罗斯春天？


PARIS – Russia is not Egypt.	巴黎——俄罗斯不是埃及。


And Moscow is not on the eve of revolution as Cairo was less than a year ago.	俄罗斯并不像一年前的开罗那样处在革命的爆发的前夕。


Indeed, Russia’s powerful have at their disposal assets that former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s regime lacked.	事实上，俄罗斯政府拥有大量可支配财产，而埃及前总统穆巴拉克政权不具有这样雄厚的资产实力。


As an energy superpower, Russia can open its coffers to appease, at least in part, the humiliation that it has inflicted on its citizens by falsifying the country’s recent legislative election results.	俄罗斯是一个能源超级大国。 至少在某种来说，俄罗斯可以开启其“保险箱”去缓解国家最近伪造司法选举结果而使其公民所遭受到的羞辱感。


And not all Russians are in the streets.	而且，并不是所有的俄罗斯人都上街示威游行。 我们应该意识到“缩放效果”。


We should beware of the “zoom effect,” which made many people believe that the young protesters of Cairo’s Tahrir Square were fully representative of Egyptian society.	是这一效果使许多人认为开罗的卡利尔广场聚集的年轻示威者能够代表整个埃及社会。 他们并不能代表整个社会。


They were not.	埃及的农村人民很像俄罗斯的农村人民。


Rural Egypt, like rural Russia, is much more conservative than the young elites who seize the world’s imagination with their protests and embrace of modern social media.	他们比那些年轻的精英们要保守得多得多。 那些年轻的精英们接住了社会媒体，通过抗议示威吸引住了全世界的注意力。


Furthermore, Mubarak was old and sick, and no longer enjoyed the trust of his people.	再者，穆巴拉克年事已高又体弱多病，已经不再受到人民的信赖。


Vladimir Putin, by contrast, exudes energy and health, and may still reassure many segments of Russian society whose main concern is their country’s glory rather than its citizens’ happiness.	相比之下，普京身体健康，充满着活力和朝气。 他任然可能会说服许多俄罗斯社会不同阶层的人民，而这些人主要在乎的是国家的荣誉而并非其公民的幸福。


Yet Putin may be overplaying the macho card so excessively that it could backfire and contribute to his isolation from Russia’s urban and more educated voters.	然而，普京可能过分地强调大男子主义的强硬态度。 这可能会适得其反，导致俄罗斯城市选民和更多接受过教育的选民的孤立。


But, even if the tens of thousands of demonstrators are unlikely to threaten the survival of Putin’s regime, the Kremlin would be wise to take them seriously.	但是，即便成千上万示威者的示威者可能不会威胁到普京政权的存亡，但克林姆林宫当权应该变得明智，认真对待这些游行示威者。


The protesters’ trademark so far has been moderation and restraint; nothing would be more dangerous than violent repression.	目前示威者的表现一直比较温和，有节制。 残暴的镇压会成为极其危险的处理手段。


Beyond the issue of violence, the Russian authorities would take a huge historical risk by failing to register the public’s growing alienation.	除了暴力问题，由于俄罗斯当局未能意识到公众日益增长的疏远感，其可能还会因此受到一项巨大的历史考验，。


Sheltered physically and metaphorically by the Kremlin’s high walls, and having progressively lost contact with the living conditions of ordinary people (if they ever had any), Russia’s leaders seem to consider their lifestyle to be both normal and eternal.	在克林姆林宫高墙的屁护下，俄罗斯的领导人已经逐渐失去了对其普通百姓生活条件的了解（可能他们曾经有所了解），他们似乎已经认为自己的生活方式既正常又长久。


From the standpoint of condemning elite behavior, Russian protesters evoke, at least partly, the actors of the Arab revolution.	从满嘴谴责的精英群体的行为角度来看，至少在某种程度来说，俄罗斯的示威者引起了阿拉伯革命的参与者的反应。


In their denunciation of “Soviet electoral practices,” they reject the combination of despotism and corruption that characterized Soviet power yesterday and Russian power today – rhetoric familiar from Arab revolutionaries.	他们公开谴责“苏维埃选举行为”，他们反对暴君统治和贪污腐败的结合体。 这恰恰是曾经的苏维埃政权和当今的俄罗斯政权所具有的典型特征。


As young Arabs told the rulers of Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Yemen, and other Arab countries, this new generation of Russians is telling Putin: “Get Out!”	这和阿拉伯革命者的遭遇极其相似。 就像阿拉伯人民告诉利比亚、埃及、突尼斯、叙利亚，也门和其他阿拉伯国家领导人那样，这一代年轻的俄罗斯人正要求普京“下台”。


But most participants hold few illusions about the efficacy of their protest.	从满嘴谴责的精英群体的行为角度来看，至少在某种程度来说，俄罗斯的示威者引起了阿拉伯革命的参与者的反应。


They want to express to Russia’s rulers the extent of their frustration and determination.	他们公开谴责“苏维埃选举行为”，他们反对暴君统治和贪污腐败的结合体。 这恰恰是曾经的苏维埃政权和当今的俄罗斯政权所具有的典型特征。


They may not expect regime change, but they expect at least some minimal reforms.	这和阿拉伯革命者的遭遇极其相似。 就像阿拉伯人民告诉利比亚，埃及，突尼斯，叙利亚，也门和其他阿拉伯国家领导人那样，这一代年轻的俄罗斯人正要求普京“下台”。


Above all, they want to set limits on Putin’s power.	最重要的是，他们想要控制普京的权利。


But their protest’s ironic consequence may be that the more moderate of the two figures at the summit of Russian politics, Dmitri Medvedev, will not return to the post of prime minister, as had been planned.	但是，他们的抗议可能会产生一个讽刺性的结果。 俄罗斯的两个最高政治任务，梅德韦杰夫一直采取较为缓和的态度，也不会像计划那样，重回首相位置。


A game of political musical chairs would simply be too much in the eyes of too many Russians.	在太多俄罗斯人民的眼里，这种政治“音乐交椅”的游戏玩得太过于频繁了。


The protests have caught the Kremlin’s masters, as well as the majority of Russia’s citizens, by surprise.	这些示威游行者不仅使俄罗斯领导人大吃一惊，同样也使广大的俄罗斯公民感到颇为震惊。


They failed to recognize that globalization – particularly the global information revolution – has made the world more transparent and interdependent than ever.	他们没有意识到全球化---尤其是信息全球化---已经使整个世界前所未有的透明和相互联系。 马德里的示威者是受到开罗示威者的影响。


The protesters of Madrid were inspired by those of Cairo, and were themselves a source of inspiration from New York to Tel Aviv – and, subsequently, to Moscow.	而巴黎示威者本身有又为纽约和拉特维夫的游行者提供了灵感，紧接着这种灵感又传到了莫斯科。


A lesson emerges: with the deepening of the economic crisis, on the one hand, and instant global connectivity, on the other, what was accepted yesterday is regarded as intolerable today.	另一方面，由于全球联系具有即时性； 曾经被人们所接受的事情现在可能会被视作无法容忍。


That applies to Russia, too.	这同样对俄罗斯适用。


For a long time, Russia has perceived itself as a “White Africa.”	长久以来，俄罗斯一直认为自己是一个“白色非洲”。


The average life expectancy of Russian men, slightly below 60, is more African than European (or even Asian, for the most part).	俄罗斯的人口平均寿命稍稍低于60岁。 这一数字更接近非洲，而并非欧洲（或者说，即使连大多数亚洲国家也不如）。


The corrupt enrichment of so many Russian elites mimics the disastrous habits of many of their African counterparts.	在许多俄罗斯的贵族群体中，贪污腐败屡见不鲜。 这中行为和许多在非洲具有同样地位人的灾难性习惯非常相似。


But this comparison has limits.	但是这种比喻也有局限性。


Despite its many problems, Africa today has become a continent of hope.	尽管非洲存在许多问题，非洲目前已经成为��一个充满希望的大陆。


Its population is exploding, as are its economic-growth rates.	其人口正在急速膨胀，经济增长率也正在爆炸式增长。


Senegalese firms seek to help their Spanish business partners, while Portugal extends an almost royal welcome to the leaders of their former colony, newly oil-rich Angola.	塞内加尔的公司在寻求方法帮助其西班牙商业合作伙伴。 同时，葡萄牙为石油资源丰富的安哥拉---曾经是葡萄牙的殖民地的领导人举办了近乎皇室待遇的欢迎仪式。


Africa is on the rise, while Russia is on the decline.	非洲正在崛起，而俄罗斯正在走向衰落。


The democratic idealism that accompanied the fall of communism 20 years ago is gone, but the “imperial pride” recovered in part during the Putin years may not be enough to compensate for the contempt with which the Russian state treats its citizens.	20年前，随着共产主义瓦解而产生的民主理想主义也已丧失殆尽。 在普京领导的数年间，“帝国骄傲”一定程度上得到恢复。


Russia’s demonstrators’ message is simple: “Too much corruption, disdain, and inequality is too much.”	但是，这可能并不足以抵消俄罗斯对其公民低劣的所作所为。 俄罗斯示威者的传达的信息很简单：“存在太多的贪污腐败和藐视人民，不公平过于严重了。


Russia, like the Arab world, wants modernity.	”就像阿拉伯世界一样，俄罗斯需要现代化。


Spain’s Human-Rights Dilemma	西班牙的人权困境


NEW YORK – Spanish MPs want to legislate restraints that would prevent a few of the country’s judges from exercising what has seemed like a roving license to prosecute in Spanish courts human-rights violations committed anywhere in the world.	纽约—西班牙国会议员们想要实施一项立法，阻止某些西班牙法官行使类似于流动许可证的权利，在西班牙法庭起诉世界各地发生的侵犯人权行为。


In a current case, a Spanish judge is seeking arrest warrants against Jiang Zemin, the former president of China, and Li Peng, a former Chinese prime minister, for alleged crimes committed in Tibet.	在最近的一个案例中，一名西班牙法官要求获得针对中国前国家主席蒋泽明和前国务院总理李鹏的逮捕令，指控后两者在西藏犯有罪行。


There is no discernible Spanish connection to the case.	没有迹象表明西班牙与此案有关。


The Spanish MPs have a point: Allowing the country’s prosecuting magistrates to select targets from anywhere in the world, without there being a clear legal nexus to Spain, is an invitation to politicize the process.	西班牙国会议员们提出了一个观点：允许一国检察官在与西班牙没有明确法律关系的别国选择起诉对象不啻于将起诉程序政治化。


But it is also important to preserve the core principle underlying these prosecutions: the concept of universal jurisdiction.	但捍卫作为这些起诉基础的核心原则也很重要，即普遍管辖权（universal jurisdiction）的概念。


Indeed, it is a concept with ancient origins, and it plays a crucial role in the global protection of human rights.	事实上，这一概念可谓源远流长，并且在全球人权保护行动中扮演着关键作用。


Universal jurisdiction originated in Greek and Roman times in the struggle against piracy.	普遍管辖权起源于希腊和罗马时代的清剿海盗的战争。


Because pirates committed their crimes on the high seas, beyond the territory of any state, the idea developed that they were enemies of humanity whom any state could prosecute.	由于海盗在公海实施犯罪，而公海不属于任何一个国家的领海，因此就产生了一种思想：他们是人类的公敌，任何国家头可以起诉他们。


In the seventeenth century, the Dutch scholar Hugo Grotius, who is recognized for codifying international law, argued that pirates could be tried for their crimes, regardless of where they were committed, aboard the ships that captured them.	在十七世纪，荷兰学者雨果·格劳修斯（Hugo Grotius，他被认为是国际法的起草者）指出海盗可以在抓获他们的船上被起诉，不管他们的犯罪地点在哪里。


Following the 1814-1815 Congress of Vienna, with its condemnation of slavery, some states applied the concept to slave traders, who also committed many of their crimes outside national jurisdictions.	1814—1815年的维也纳会议规定蓄奴为犯罪行为，此后，一些国家将这一概念应用于奴隶贩子，奴隶贩子的许多罪行也是在国家法律辖区之外犯下的。


Later, the crimes of the Nazis played an essential part in winning widespread acceptance of the concept of universal jurisdiction.	后来，纳粹罪行在普遍管辖权概念获得广泛接受方面起到了关键作用。


At the end of World War II, Nazi leaders fled, relocating all over the world.	二战结束时，纳粹领导人四散逃亡，散落于世界各地。


Countries like Canada and Australia, seeking certainty that those who had committed horrendous crimes would not find safe haven within their borders, established the authority to try suspects in their own courts.	加拿大和澳大利亚等国家为了明确表示这些大屠杀罪犯不可能在它们的国土上获得安全港，成立了国家机关在本国法庭上起诉这些嫌犯。


The concept has since been embodied in treaties that virtually every country in the world has ratified.	此后，这一概念被写入了几乎所有国家投批准了的条约。


The 1949 Geneva Conventions require states to search for those who have committed war crimes and either prosecute them in their own courts or turn them over to another state that is prepared to try them.	1949年日内瓦公约要求各国搜捕犯有战争罪行者，可以在本国法庭起诉他们，也可以把他们引渡给准备起诉他们的他国。


Similarly, the 1984 Convention Against Torture requires states to establish their own jurisdiction to prosecute torture if an offender is on their territory and is not extradited to stand trial in the country where the crime was committed.	类似地，1984年禁止酷刑公约（Convention Against Torture）要求各国建立各自的司法管辖权以起诉身在本国并没有引渡回犯罪实施国的罪犯。


A crucial test of universal jurisdiction is now moving forward in Senegal, where one of Africa’s cruelest dictators, Hissène Habré, who ruled Chad from 1982 to 1990, is set to be prosecuted.	眼下，普遍管辖权正在塞内加尔经受一次关键考验，非洲残暴独裁者之一、1982—1990年乍得统治者侯赛因·哈布雷（Hissène Habré）即将被起诉。


A commission of inquiry established that, during its time in power, Habré’s regime carried out torture and was responsible for the deaths of an estimated 40,000 people.	一个调查委员会认为在其掌权期间，哈布雷政权犯有虐待行为，需要为大约40,000人的死亡负责。


When Habré was deposed, he fled to Senegal with a substantial portion of the national treasury, living there in comfort with much of his extended family, as well as key supporters.	哈布雷在被废黜时带着乍得的很大一部分国家财产逃到了塞内加尔，在塞内加尔与庞大的家族和重要支持者一起过着舒适的生活。


For many years, African human-rights activists, aided by Human Rights Watch, struggled to hold him accountable.	多年来，非洲人权活动家在人权观察组织（Human Rights Watch）的帮助下一直在致力于问责哈布雷。


Now, at long last, with the support of the African Union, he faces trial in his adopted home for the crimes he committed in Chad.	如今，在非洲联盟的支持下，哈布雷终于要在所在国接受对其在乍得犯下的罪行的审判了。


A related practice has developed in the United States, where victims of human-rights crimes committed elsewhere file civil suits against immigrant perpetrators.	美国也采取了相关行动，他国人权犯罪的受害者对移民美国的施暴者提起民事诉讼。


In a substantial number of cases since the early 1980’s, US courts have ordered the defendants to pay compensation to the victims.	自20世纪80年代初以来的大量案件中，美国法院判决施害者向受害者提供补偿。


Most often, universal jurisdiction is invoked when the person alleged to have committed war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide in another country is present in the territory where he or she is to be tried.	普遍管辖权最常被援引的场合是被指控者犯有战争罪、违反人道罪或种族灭绝罪，但其犯罪地点和起诉地点不在同一个国家。


This is consistent with the principle that there should be no safe haven for those who commit such crimes.	这与这类罪犯不能获得安全港的原则相符。


If Spain incorporates such a requirement in its law, and also provides for some other appropriate connection (such as the inclusion of Spaniards among the victims), it will overcome the tendency of a few of its judges to reach out too widely.	如果西班牙在法律中加入这一要求，并提供一些其他的合理关联（比如受害者中包括西班牙人），就能克服法官触手伸得太远的弊端。


Such a reform would remain faithful to the principles of justice that underlie the concept of universal jurisdiction.	这样的改革仍符合作为普遍管辖权概念基础的公正原则。


As China Turns	中国的转变


When Deng Xiaoping began to open China in the late 1970’s, he said, “It doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white. As long as it catches mice, it is a good cat.”	邓小平在上世纪 70 年代末推动中国对外开放时说过一句名言：“不管黑猫白猫，抓住老鼠的就是好猫。


This motto helped catalyze China into becoming what it is today: an increasingly materialistic, money-worshipping society that has lost touch with traditional ethics.	”而他这番话则催生了中国的现状：一个割裂了传统道德，并逐渐倒向物质主义，拜金主义的社会。


Nothing captures this moral vacuum more vividly than the recent television drama, “Wo Ju” (“Crowded Spaces”), which has been riveting Chinese audiences.	对此，没有什么能比最近受中国观众热捧的电视连续剧《蜗居》更能生动地诠释这一点了。


The program’s “hero,” Guo Haizao, is a fair-skinned and innocent 25-year-old woman living near Shanghai.	剧中的主人翁郭海藻是一个貌美而单纯的少女， 25 岁，住在上海近郊。


Initially she follows in her older sister’s footsteps in quest of their common dream, to attend one of China’s top universities.	一开始她尝试追随姐姐的生活轨迹去追寻自己的幸福生活，还考上了一所名牌大学。


But, even with a university degree, life in go-go Shanghai turns out not to be as she had imagined.	但在上海这个花花世界的生活状态却远远超出了她的想象。


“Why is the world so full of unfairness, with the limelight only splashing on the prettiest spots in the city?” she wonders one night, as she worries about her and her sister’s struggle to buy a home.	“为什么这个世界那么不公平，人们总盯着这座城市光鲜的一面？ ”郭海藻有天晚上在为自己和姐姐买房的事发愁时这样想。


As Song Siming, a handsome, successful, and Audi-driving – but also married – secretary to the Mayor, tells her, “On those unsightly corners in the dark where dirt, flies, and rats wander, nobody's paying attention.”	紧接着宋思明 —— 一个相貌端正，仕途顺利，开着辆奥迪车的市长秘书 —— 出现了，他告诉郭海藻：“没人会注意那些藏污纳垢的角落。 ”


Song is a resourceful man who oozes charm.	宋思明是一个有魅力而且八面玲珑的人。


Guo soon becomes intoxicated by his air of can-do and success.	而郭海藻则很快被他的热情和成功迷住了。


When problems arise, he makes a quick phone call and gets things “settled.” Little by little, Guo finds herself taken in by his charm and ability to get things done.	有时有什么困难宋思明一个电话就能办妥，也使得郭海藻逐渐为宋的魅力和办事能力所倾倒。


Before long, she is cheating on her boyfriend and swooning into Song’s arms and bed.	不久之后，她就背叛了自己的男友并投入了宋思明的怀抱。


When Guo overhears fights between her sister and brother-in-law in their crammed rented room, her aspirations to get an apartment through hard work, and to start a family with her boyfriend and soon-to-be husband, begin to fade.	当郭海藻无意间听到她姐姐夫妇二人在小出租屋里的争吵之后，她原本希望通过努力工作买一套房子，和自己的男友共同组建一个家庭的理想也逐渐破灭了。


She is tempted by the shortcut Song promises and allows herself to be seduced by him in turn for a large sum of cash and luxury apartment. Soon she is even pregnant.	她被宋思明所承诺的捷径所诱惑，以委身于他的代价换取一大笔钱和一套奢华公寓，没过多久她还怀孕了，由此可见，宋思明也深谙“抓老鼠”之道。


“Wo Ju” is an adaptation of a novel about recent skyrocketing housing prices in Chinese cities – especially in Shanghai – and the effect of real-estate fever on young Chinese men and women in today’s get-rich-by-any-means China.	《蜗居》这部片其实是改编自一部小说，书中描述了当今不择手段追求财富的中国，城市 —— 尤其是上海 —— 房价飞涨以及房地产狂热对中国年轻一代的影响。


Through the soap opera, viewers get a sense of how the Chinese dream has begun to center around property ownership rather than education or love, and how this change has been transforming Chinese society, sometimes in startling ways.	通过这部剧集，观众能感受到中国人的梦想是如何从求学和爱情向物质转化的，而这一切又是如何（有时以某种惊人的方式）在改变中国社会的。


These changes have created a new kind of hope and despair among the generation of Chinese now coming of age.	这些变化在中国初入社会的一代人中制造了一种新的希望和绝望。


But, of course, the sub-text is that if this fixation on property has also led to greater pragmatism in affairs of the heart, it has also led to a worrisome property bubble that many economists now fear could soon burst.	但当然，潜台词是如果这种对地产的病态痴迷导致了一种爱情的实用主义，那么它同时也可能引发一场令许多经济学忧虑不已，担心会迅速爆破的地产泡沫。


Then, because this is a soap opera, Song suddenly dies in a car crash, just as he is rushing to the hospital – while being chased by corruption investigators! – to check on his sweetheart and their unborn baby boy.	但说到底这毕竟是电视剧，最后宋思明在听闻他怀孕的情人出事后立刻驱车赶往医院 —— 后面还有纪检部门的车子紧追不舍 —— 最终在车祸中身亡。


But, as it happens, only days before Guo secretly had an abortion, right after a dramatic fight with Song’s wife.	而这一切都发生在郭海藻与宋思明的妻子发生了一场戏剧性的争执并秘密堕胎之后。


As fantastic and convoluted as the plot sometimes gets, “Wo Ju” offers a truthful look at what animates contemporary Chinese society: property, money, sex, cars, and power.	然而在曲折离奇的情节之外，《蜗居》其实真实地再现了当今中国社会的背后推动力：房产，金钱，性，车和权力。


Perhaps because it captures the zeitgeist so well, the program has become hugely popular, so much so that it has recently caught the attention of media censors.	或许是因为太过贴近现实，这部剧集取得了巨大的成功，甚至吸引了官方媒体审查部门的注意。


Indeed, its realistic use of profanity and its depiction of the spiritual vacuum that grips China got it banished from one of Beijing’s TV channels.	事实上，这部剧对丑陋现实的揭露以及当今中国精神空虚的描述直接导致其被禁止在北京某电视频道播放。


While the official media are flooding television and cinema screens with propaganda about Confucius, ancient fairytales, and kung fu epics, “Wo Ju” engages a broad cross-section of contemporary society, which sees in it troubling aspects of their own lives: official corruption, mistresses, even house slaves.	当官方媒体在电视电影上大肆鼓吹儒家道德，古代典故和尚武精神之时，《蜗居》则覆盖了当代中国社会中那些影响人们生活的阴暗面：官员腐败，包二奶甚至是房奴。


As Song arrogantly says to Guo before he dies, “As long as it’s a problem that we can solve with money, then it’s not a big problem.”	正如宋思明生前骄傲地跟郭海藻宣称：“只要钱能解决的问题都不是问题。 ”


The program has caused a tsunami of online reflection.	这部剧集同时也引发了网上的热烈讨论。


Many Web sites and bulletin boards have run surveys with questions like, “If you were Guo Haizao, would you choose Song Siming and an apartment or Xiaobei (the dumped boyfriend) and true love?”	许多网站和论坛都发动类似“如果你是郭海藻，你会选择宋思明和一套房子，还是选择小贝（那个被抛弃的前男友）和真爱？


On one of China’s largest sites, 46% picked Song, while only 22% chose the young boyfriend, a choice that suggests where the new generation’s values now lay.	”而其中一个大型网站的调查结果则显示，有 46% 的人选择了前者， 22% 选择了后者，这样的选择说明了如今新一代的价值观究竟落到了何处。


The traditional virtues of “true love” have been replaced by pragmatism and a willingness to become a mistress before youth expires and all chances of getting a good apartment are lost.	传统的“真爱”美德如今被实用主义和趁年轻当二奶和不择手段搞一套大公寓所代替。


After all, many netizens now argue, does not such a practical course of action save many years of hard work?	毕竟有很多网民都提出，通过这一实用的做法不是可以少奋斗许多年么？


One recent Internet match-making effort attracted applications from more than 10,000 young women, all seeking a chance to marry a Shenzhen multi-millionaire sight unseen.	最近还有一个从未露面的深圳千万富翁举办网上相亲，吸引了超过 1 万名年轻女性应征。


That was not the first lottery marriage in today’s China, and it surely will not be the last.	而在当今中国，这样的淘金婚姻肯定不是第一桩，也不会是最后一桩。


The most interesting thing about “Wo Ju” may be that most viewers do not dislike Song, the string-pulling mayor’s secretary.	而跟《蜗居》有关的最有趣现象则是多数观众对宋思明这个操弄权势的市长秘书并不反感。


Indeed, while Song may be cast as an anti-hero, in contemporary China, he is considered a “good catch.”	事实上虽然宋思明在剧中是个反面人物，在现实中他却被视为一个“完美选择”。


More and more young women are making just such practical choices: putting an apartment before love and pragmatism before principle.	越来越多的中国年轻女性正在做着这般现实的选择：把爱情放在一边，房子为重，把原则收起来，实用为先。


Trashing the ASEAN Brand	破坏东盟名声


CANBERRA – Having a reputation for integrity and decency matters as much in international relations as in professional and personal life.	堪培拉—拥有诚信和正派的形象对于国际关系和对于职业和个人生涯一样重要。


States that are so regarded consistently punch above their weight – witness the Scandinavians.	拥有这一形象的国家总是拥有更大的分量——斯堪的纳维亚国家就是明证。


By contrast, those that never earn – or fritter away – such a reputation can seriously endanger their own interests, jeopardizing trade, tourism, foreign investment, political support in international forums and negotiations, and the security of their own nationals abroad.	相反，从未获得或者浪费这一形象的国家可能严重损害其自身利益，拖累贸易、旅游、外国投资、国际论坛和谈判中的政治支持以及本国国民的海外安全。


Three of Southeast Asia's most important states – Malaysia, Thailand, and now Indonesia – have brought trouble on themselves in this respect in recent months.	三个最重要的东南亚国家——马来西亚、泰国和现在的印度尼西亚——最近几个月来在这方面给自己制造了麻烦。


All three are raising serious doubts, in different ways, about their commitment to the rule of law, the integrity of their judicial systems, and the quality of mercy in the administration of justice.	所有这三个国家以不同的方式让世人严重怀疑他们对法治、司法制度的诚信和执法部门慈悲品德的承诺。


In Malaysia, the country's highest court last month rejected opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's appeal against a five-year prison sentence and a ban against running for public office for a further five years – a shocking and indefensible decision.	上个月，马来西亚最高法院驳回了反对派领袖安瓦尔·易卜拉欣（Anwar Ibrahim）对其五年有期徒刑、剥夺五年政治权利的判决的上诉——这一决定令人震惊，毫无道理可言。


Prime Minister Najib Razak's government was transparently vindictive in pursuing allegations of sodomy (a crime rarely prosecuted in Malaysia) against Anwar.	总理纳吉布政府以鸡奸罪名起诉安瓦尔显然是别有用心（马来西亚很少有人因此罪名被起诉）。


The evidence against him was obviously inconclusive; and the court's acceptance of it was manifestly craven.	不利于安瓦尔的证据显然站不住脚； 法院接受这样的证据是公然示弱。


If the fiction is maintained that the court was merely doing its judicial duty as it saw it, decency could still prevail: Anwar could be granted executive clemency.	如果这个故事时法院只是根据其所见行使其司法职责，那么仍然可以保住正派形象：安瓦尔可以获得行政特赦。


But there is no sign that Najib's government will advise such action.	但没有迹象表明纳吉布政府会建议这样做。


Anwar's real crime was that his opposition coalition of conservative Muslim, secular, and Chinese parties was seriously challenging the six-decade supremacy of Najib's United Malays National Organization (UMNO), losing the 2013 election only because of a transparent gerrymander.	安瓦尔的真正罪名是其反对由保守派穆斯林、世俗派和华人政党的执政联盟，这严重威胁到纳吉布的马来民族统一机构（United Malays National Organization，UMNO）六十年的主宰，2013年，他完全是因为公然改变选区的政策而输掉了选举。


In Thailand, the biggest crime of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his supporters was to keep winning national elections with populist campaigns that threatened the interests of the country's long-established Bangkok-based elite.	在泰国，前总理他信及其支持者的最大罪名是利用民粹主义选战运动赢得国家大选，而他们的选战运动威胁到老牌曼谷精英的利益。


Serious wrongdoing, involving bribery and institutional corruption, no doubt occurred along the way; but the scale of such offenses could hardly justify last year's military coup and the subsequent repression.	当然，在此期间发生了严重的不当行为，包括贿赂和制度性腐败； 但这些罪名根本不足以支撑去年的军事政变及随后的镇压。


Some of those in the army-installed National Reform Council and Constitutional Drafting Committee have a real interest in ensuring that Thailand's next constitution – the 20th since 1932 – will be genuinely democratic.	确保泰国的下一部宪法——自1932年以来的第20部宪法——成为名副其实的民主宪法符合军方建立的国家改革委员会和宪法起草委员会中的一些人的真正利益。


Many do want to end, once and for all, the corrupt, vote-buying culture that has long afflicted Thai politics on both sides.	许多人确实想一劳永逸地结束长期困扰泰国政坛两边的腐败和收买选票文化。


But true reform can be achieved only in a spirit of reconciliation, and the military regime's crude impeachment of deposed Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (Thaksin's sister) in January – on trumped-up charges that seemed flimsy even to many of her diehard opponents – has made that impossible.	但真正的改革只有通过妥协精神才能实现，而1月份军政府的野蛮地弹劾总理英拉（他信之妹）让这无从实现。 加在英拉头上的指控纯属捏造，就连她的顽固反对者也认为站不住脚。


The law, once again, has been used for nakedly political ends.	法律再一次赤裸裸地遭到政治的操纵。


Indonesia's case is different from the other two, and less extreme, but also troubling for the country's reputation.	印尼的情况与马来西亚和泰国不同，不如后两者极端，但也不利于国家形象。


The grassroots-driven victory of President Joko “Jokowi" Widodo last year triumphantly consolidated the country's democratic transition, and raised high expectations for human-rights and anti-corruption campaigners.	去年以草根身份赢得选举胜利的总统“佐科维”佐科·维多多成功地巩固了印尼的民主转型，并让人们对人权和反复运动寄予了极大期望。


But, domestically, confidence in Jokowi's capacity and will to tackle corruption has eroded with his nomination – only very belatedly withdrawn – of a suspiciously wealthy but politically well-connected candidate for National Police Chief.	但是，在国内，对佐科维治理腐败的能力和决心的信心随着他提名——最近才收回——以不干净手段致富并且拥有极大政治人脉的候选人为印尼警察总长而下滑。


Internationally, concern has been growing about Jokowi's stated determination to allow – after a long moratorium – the executions of scores of convicted drug traffickers to proceed.	国际社会日益担心佐科维所声称的决心——在长期暂停后继续对多为定罪毒贩实施处决。


His stance reflects no consideration of whether their individual cases might justify clemency, as well as apparent indifference to mounting evidence that sentencing in capital cases might have owed less to a case's merits than to the presence or absence of bribes.	他的立场表明他根本不考虑这些个体案例是否能证明仁慈，也显然对日益增加的关于死刑案件的判决与案件本身的性质关联较少而与是否行贿关联较多的证据无动于衷。


Two Australian drug traffickers have been scheduled for execution this month.	按日程，两名澳大利亚毒贩已于本月被处决。


While no one doubts that they were properly convicted ten years ago, their behavior since – and questions about the integrity of the judicial process that condemned them to die but allowed others to live – has made a compelling case for the exercise of mercy, for them and for others.	没人怀疑他们在十年前的合理定罪，但此后他们的行为，以及剥夺他们的生命而让其他人继续活下去的司法程序的诚信程度的怀疑已经构成了宽大处理——不管是对他们还是对其他人——的充分理由。


What does not yet seem to have registered with Jokowi, or with enough of his fellow citizens, is the incongruity of refusing even to consider clemency for those on Indonesia's death row, while lobbying passionately for clemency for more than 200 Indonesians condemned to die elsewhere, notably in the Gulf.	佐科维尚未认识到——或者其最随着尚未充分认识到——的是拒绝考虑宽大处理印尼国内死囚、同时却在游说其他国家（特别是海湾国家）宽大处理200多名印尼籍死囚的不恰当性。


Decency can be credibly demanded of others only if one practices it oneself.	只有你自己做到了正派，才能令人信服地要求其他人正派。


It seems only a matter of time before Indonesians start feeling the pain of this inconsistency.	印尼的这一行动不一致性很快就会给其带来痛处。


Malaysia has earned worldwide condemnation for its handling of the Anwar affair, and Thailand has lost many international friends since its latest coup, reflected in a humiliating loss in its recent bid for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council.	马来西亚因为安瓦尔案已经受到了全世界的指责，泰国也因为最近的政变而失去了许多国际友邦，其最近追求联合国人权委员会席位受到重大挫折就是明证。


Thai diplomats fear another such defeat in their country's current attempt to win a seat on the UN Security Council.	泰国外交官担心，泰国最近试图赢得联合国安理会席位的行动也会遭遇类似挫折。


There are some larger regional consequences in all of this.	所有这些事件还会造成更大的地区后果。


The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has tenaciously fought for its place as the geopolitical hinge between East and South Asia, and an important player in Asia-Pacific economic and security diplomacy.	东盟一直在为东南亚地缘政治要冲和亚太经济和安全外交重要行动方的地位而不懈斗争。


In doing so, it has had to repeatedly finesse issues like Cambodia's authoritarian leadership, Myanmar's struggle with democratic transition, Vietnam's stubbornly anachronistic one-party state, and even impeccably incorruptible Singapore's regular misuse of defamation laws to neutralize political opponents.	在此过程中，它不得不一再与柬埔寨极权政权、缅甸民主转型斗争、越南根深蒂固的一党专政甚至无可挑剔地清廉的新加坡不定期滥用诽谤法排挤政治反对派等问题纠缠。


The question that ASEAN leaders must now ask themselves is just how much trashing of the Southeast Asian brand, by how many of its members simultaneously, the region can afford while still fully realizing its aspirations for economic growth and political influence.	如今，东盟领导人必须扪心自问，可以让多少成员国同时以多大力度败坏东南亚的名声而不影响充分实现东南亚的经济增长和政治影响力抱负。


It is always tempting to claim that what happens behind sovereign borders is nobody else's business.	声称内政部容他人干涉向来是诱惑力极大的说辞。


But that is no longer true in today's interconnected world.	但在当今互联社会中已不再是如此。


Some states may be big and powerful enough to get away with behaving badly, but winning respect for behaving well is a much stronger foundation for economic and political success.	一些国家也许足够大、足够强，能够怙恶不悛而逍遥法外，但用好行为赢得尊重是远远更强大的经济和政治成功基础。


Unshackling ASEAN	解放东盟


SINGAPORE – As the Association of Southeast Asian Nations approaches its 50th anniversary next year, its failure to reach a consensus regarding Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea has raised concerns throughout the region.	新加坡—明年是东盟成立五十周年。 东盟没能就中国的南海领土主张问题形成共识，这引起了整个地区的担忧。


Although the requirement that all decisions be made by consensus enables disparate member states to unite while protecting their national interests, it also limits ASEAN’s effectiveness in dealing with emerging security threats.	尽管所有决定都根据共识做出的要求让情况各异的成员国可以联合和保护国家利益两不误，但这也限制了东盟在应对新安全威胁方面的效率。


The consensus rule explains why ASEAN failed to present a united front after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States, and in the subsequent US-led war on terror.	共识规则解释了为何东盟没有在2001年9月11日美国遭遇恐怖袭击及随后美国领导的反恐战争中采取联合立场。


Similarly, ASEAN’s response to North Korea’s provocations – such as ongoing nuclear tests and the 2010 attack that sunk the South Korean corvette Cheonan, killing 46 seamen – has been muted, owing to some ASEAN member states’ sympathy for the North Korean regime.	同理，对于朝鲜的挑衅——如继续进行核试验以及2010年袭击韩国天安号护卫舰造成46名水兵丧生——东盟也保持了沉默，因为一些成员国同情朝鲜政权。


The territorial disputes in the South China Sea are the strongest indicator yet that ASEAN’s consensus principle is limiting the organization’s effectiveness.	但南海领土纠纷最能体现东盟的共识原则如何限制了它的效率。 如何应对在地区内日益独断的中国？


The question of how to respond to growing Chinese assertiveness in the region has divided ASEAN member states more deeply than any previous issue has.	这一问题在东盟成员国之间造成的分裂远甚于此前任何一个问题。


At the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in 2012, the organization failed to issue a joint statement for the first time in its history, because Cambodia refused to allow any mention of incidents caused by China in the South China Sea.	在2012年东盟部长会议上，东盟在历史上首次没能形成联合声明，因为柬埔寨不允许在其中提及任何中国在南海制造的事端。


In July 2016, ASEAN foreign ministers failed to mention in their joint communiqué the landmark ruling against China that had been issued just two weeks before by an international arbitral tribunal on the disputes.	2016年7月，东盟外交部长会议在联合公报中也没有提到两周前国际仲裁庭所做出的不利于中国的标志性裁决。


ASEAN’s failure to act on the South China Sea issue is leading member-state governments and citizens to question the organization’s ability “to maintain and enhance peace” – the first purpose listed in its Charter.	东盟无法在南海问题上有所作为导致成员国政府和公民质疑该组织“维持和强化和平”的能力——而这是东盟宪章开宗明义的第一目标。


What’s more, the current stalemate will likely force certain member states to address the issue through other means, which will ultimately jeopardize ASEAN’s regional and international relevance.	此外，最近的僵局可能迫使一些成员国通过其他途径解决问题，最终影响到东盟的地区和国际重要性。


ASEAN must solve its consensus dilemma, through either procedural reforms or institutional innovations.	东盟必须解决这一共识难题，要么通过程序改革，要么通过制度创新。


For starters, it should follow a previous suggestion, made by the ASEAN Eminent Persons Group in 2006, to introduce majority decision-making.	首先，东盟应该遵循2006年东盟资深顾问团（Eminent Persons Group）做出的建议，引入多数决策规则。


With ASEAN’s range of activities broadening, the EPG observed, it should “consider alternative and flexible decision-making mechanisms,” including voting.	随着东盟活动范围的扩大，顾问团观察道，它应该“考虑其他灵活的决策机制，”包括投票。


The European Union embraced this governance mechanism long ago, and even within ASEAN there is precedent for majority-vote decision-making, particularly on geopolitical and security issues.	欧盟很早就采取了这一治理机制，而即便在东盟内部，也有多数投票决策的先例，特别是在地缘政治和安全问题上。


For example, the 1995 Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone established a commission that, “failing consensus,” can make decisions by a two-thirds majority.	比如，《1995年东南亚无核区条约》成立了委员会，在“无法形成共识”的情况下，可以按照三分之二多数原则决策。


When ASEAN member states cannot reach a consensus, they should distinguish between two types of issues to determine the path forward: those that have obvious implications for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and domestic autonomy of a member state; and those that have obvious implications for regional security.	当东盟国家无法形成共识时，它们应该区分两种类型的问题以决定怎样解决：对成员国主权、领土完整和独立自主构成显然影响的问题； 以及对地区安全构成显然影响的问题。


ASEAN member states should seek consensus in the former case, unless the country in question decides otherwise.	对前一种问题，东盟成员国应该寻求共识，除非当事国有别的决定。


But in the latter case, they should have the option to conduct a majority vote.	但对后一种问题，它们应该可以选择多数票规则。


Accordingly, if an issue has significant regional-security implications and does not concern a given member state’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political autonomy, that state should not be allowed to sideline all other member states’ interests at the expense of regional peace.	据此，如果一个问题具有相当大的地区安全影响而不威胁到给定成员国的主权、领土完整和政治自主，那么就不应该允许这个国家阻碍其他所有成员国，牺牲地区安全。


Another way out of the consensus dilemma is to create new institutional frameworks.	另一种克服共识难题的方法是采取新的制度框架。


For example, an ASEAN Commission for the Management of South China Sea Disputes, operating through majority voting, could establish ASEAN’s position on the issue and liaise with China to resolve disagreements when they arise.	比如，建立一个按照多数票规则运行的东盟南海纠纷管理委员会，这样能树立东盟在该问题上的立场，并在中国一同解决分歧。


Alternatively, ASEAN member states with territorial claims in the South China Sea could align and include non-claimant ASEAN member states.	或者，在南海有领土主张的东盟成员国可以结盟，并吸收无关利益的东盟成员国。


A South China Sea caucus within ASEAN could shape a common position among its own members ahead of ASEAN-related meetings, and make an ASEAN-wide consensus on the issue more likely.	在东盟内部建立南海小组，在东盟相关会议之前形成其自身的共同立场，这样更有可能产生整个东盟的共识。


If these options fail, all like-minded countries in the region, regardless of their South China Sea claims or ASEAN membership, should form a larger caucus to address the issue, by formulating a shared position in region-wide platforms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit.	如果这些选择失败，所有地区内立场相近的国家，不管它们是否在南海有领土主张或是否是东盟成员国，应该结成更大的小组，通过在东盟地区论坛和东亚峰会等地区级平台上展现共同立场来解决该问题。


In the future, this regional caucus could, if circumstances allowed, evolve into a more comprehensive regional security arrangement that supplements ASEAN-led mechanisms.	未来，如果环境允许，这一地区小组可能演化为更全面的地区安全安排，使东盟领导的机制更加完备。


Including non-member countries could undermine ASEAN’s unity; but that is a tradeoff ASEAN member states will have to accept if they decide to adhere strictly to consensus decision-making.	将非成员国纳入可能会影响到东盟的团结； 但如果东盟成员国决定严格坚守共识决策原则，这是一个必须接受的权衡。


That said, the consensus principle should not be abandoned.	尽管如此，共识原则不应该放弃。


It is in ASEAN’s best interest to reach a consensus on important issues whenever possible – including on the South China Sea dispute if it proves not to be a serious threat to regional peace.	在任何可能的时候就重要问题形成一致最符合东盟的利益——包括南海纠纷，如果它并非地区和平的严重威胁的话。


To this end, ASEAN member states should foster more trust, cooperation, and dialogue among themselves, and with China.	在这方面，东盟成员国应该建立更多彼此之间以及与中国的信任、合作和对话。


All ASEAN member states must strike a balance between their respective national interests and broader regional interests.	所有东盟国家都必须在各���的国家利益和更大的地区利益之间达到平衡。


For its part, China should be more sensitive to ASEAN member states’ security concerns, and act to turn the South China Sea into a haven for peace and prosperity, rather than an arena for tensions and rivalry.	至于中国，它应该比东盟国家更敏感于安全问题，也更愿意将南海变为和平与繁荣的避风港，而不是紧张与对立的竞技场。


ASEAN’s New Approach to Myanmar	东盟对待缅甸的新方法


NEW YORK – The recent decision by Myanmar’s government to sentence pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi to a further 18 months’ house arrest shows how difficult it is to deal with that country’s ruling generals.	纽约——缅甸政府不久前继续软禁民主运动领袖昂山素姬18个月的决策表明与该国执政的将军们打交道是何其困难。


Yet the first steps toward a new approach may already have been taken.	但我们可能已经开辟了一条崭新的道路。


The clearest sign comes from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member.	最明显的迹象来自东南亚国家联盟，缅甸也是东盟成员国。


At first, most of ASEAN’s member governments responded mildly to the verdict, expressing their “disappointment” – a stance that reflects the group’s principle of noninterference in fellow members’ internal politics.	起初，东盟各国政府对判决的反应相对温和，表达了他们的“失望”情绪——这一立场表明了东盟集团不干涉成员国内政的态度。


But Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya then consulted his counterparts in Cambodia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam.	但泰国外长格实·披隆随即与柬埔寨、印尼、新加坡和越南等国的外长磋商。


As current ASEAN chair, he floated the idea of concertedly requesting a pardon for Aung San Suu Kyi.	他以现任东盟主席的身份传播着共同要求赦免昂山素姬的思想。


ASEAN government officials have since met to draft a text.	东盟政府官员此后曾会晤制定草案。


Approval by the association’s foreign ministers may come in September, with ASEAN leaders tackling the issue in October.	该草案可能在九月获得东盟外长的批准，并在十月提交东盟领导人进行表决。


Of course, amendments and objections to the draft should be expected.	当然，草案内容将会进行修订，出现反对的声音也在意料之中。


But the pardon request is already significant.	但仅就赦免要求本身而言已经至关重要。


It seeks to be finely balanced, respecting the regime’s sovereignty while subtly pressing home the point in unison, as neighboring states.	草案试图达致细微的平衡，在尊重政府主权的同时温和地一致坚持邻国的主张。


The request would be politely worded, but it would also be an official and public mode of communication, instead of the usual behind-the-scenes quiet diplomacy.	要求的措辞将不失礼貌，但也是替代幕后无声外交的另外一种形式的正式和公开交流。


What ASEAN says or does not say will not change things immediately.	无论是东盟的公开言论还是潜台词都不会立即带来变化。


Cynics might add that even if Aung San Suu Kyi is pardoned, she may yet still be detained on political grounds or face other barriers aimed at preventing her from competing in the elections promised in Myanmar for 2010.	愤世嫉俗者可能还要加上一句，即使昂山素姬真的被赦免，她可能仍然出于政治原因而遭到扣押，或者面临着其他种种障碍，其目的就是阻止她参与定于2010年举行的缅甸大选。


But Western sanctions have not worked, either.	可西方的制裁也没有任何效果。


Since the 1990’s crackdown, human rights violations have continued, most recently with the suppression of the protests led by Buddhist monks in 2007.	从20世纪90年代的镇压行动后，破坏人权的行为就屡禁不止，最近一次是2007年对佛教僧侣所领导抗议活动的镇压。


The average citizen has grown poorer, even as those close to the junta become ostentatiously rich.	普通的平民百姓生活水平日益下降，而与统治者相关的利益集团则富得流油。


Western sanctions instead paved the way for investments in Myanmar by those with less concern about human rights violations – first by ASEAN neighbors in hotels and other sectors, and more recently by China and India, which are vying for projects and influence in the strategic energy sector.	西方制裁的作用却是为那些不在意人权记录的国家在缅甸投资铺平了道路——起初是东盟邻国投资酒店和其他行业，不久前又新增了中国和印度，这两者就战略能源领域的项目和影响力展开了激烈的争夺。


As a result, Myanmar’s generals have been able to play one side off against another.	结果为缅甸的将军们提供了从中渔利的机会。


The game, however, may now be changing.	但游戏规则可能正在发生变化。


ASEAN’s initiative is a new step forward for the group.	东盟动议是该组织迈出的新的一步。


While ASEAN rejected previous calls to impose sanctions, or even to expel Myanmar, this step shows that it will not remain inert regardless of what the generals do.	尽管东盟拒绝了此前制裁、甚至是开除缅甸的呼吁，这一步骤表明它不会任由将军们胡作非为而完全无动于衷。


Moreover, some ASEAN member countries, like Singapore, have explicitly called for Aung San Suu Kyi to be allowed to participate in the 2010 elections.	此外，新加坡等某些东盟成员国已经明确呼吁允许昂山素姬参与2010年的大选争夺。


The ASEAN effort coincides with two other developments.	除东盟努力外还有两大进展值得细数。


One is the decision by the United States to reconsider its policy of sanctions, becoming more flexible while remaining true to its values and interests.	其一是美国决意重新考虑其制裁政策，目标是在坚持核心价值观和利益的同时处事更加灵活。


Some activists have criticized US Senator Jim Webb’s journey to Yangon to obtain the release of John Yettaw, the American whose actions triggered the charges against Aung San Suu Kyi.	某些活动人士对美国参议员吉姆·韦伯亲赴仰光，要求释放引发昂山素姬案的美国人约翰·耶特沃持批评态度。


But this is consistent with the Obama administration’s policy of seeking a dialogue even with those who are not America’s friends.	但这恰恰符合奥巴马内阁力求与不是美国朋友的国家展开对话的政策。


Such dialogue is vital if Myanmar is to be prevented from possibly pursuing nuclear weapons and rigging elections, à la Iran.	这样的对话对防止缅甸发展核武器和像伊朗一样操纵选举至关重要。


The other development is less obvious.	另外一项进展相对较为隐蔽。


After the court delivered its verdict, the regime halved the sentence and agreed to keep Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest, rather than moving her to one of its worst jails.	在法院宣布判决后，缅甸当局将刑期压缩了一半，并同意软禁昂山素姬，而不是将其投入条件最差的监狱。


This may not seem like much of a concession.	这乍看上去似乎不像一种让步。


But the junta seems to be trying to cause less offense.	但军政府似乎有意缓和外界的愤怒。


Consider, too, the junta’s gesture in handing over Yettaw to Senator Webb, and its interaction with the international community on humanitarian assistance after Cyclone Nargis.	军政府将耶特沃交给韦伯参议员、以及它在纳尔吉斯台风袭击后与国际社会在人道主义援助问题上的合作也是需要考虑的因素。


Might it be possible that the generals in Myanmar recognize that they are in a cul de sac?	这会不会是缅甸的将军们意识到自己已经走进了死胡同？


Could the regime be seeking ways out of its isolation in the run-up to the 2010 elections?	这会不会是缅甸当局在2010年大选前试图摆脱孤立的局面？


Could it welcome dialogue and engagement?	缅甸军政府会不会欢迎对话和接触？


How the generals respond to the ASEAN request will be an important signal of the regime’s intentions.	将军们如何回应东盟的要求将成为测试当局意图的重要信号。


Even if the regime does want to begin talking, sustaining a dialogue will be no easier than has been the case with North Korea.	即使当局确实愿意谈判，坚持谈判也不会比北朝鲜的情况轻松多少。


ASEAN, as the organization of neighboring states, is important to achieving that goal, but US involvement is key, as is inclusion of China and India.	虽说为实现谈判目标，东盟作为由邻国构成的组织所起的作用至关重要，但美国的参与才是问题的关键所在，此外也少不了中国和印度。


They must be pressed to see more than the opportunity for strategic access to energy and other natural resources.	必须对中国和印度施加压力，使它们在看重缅甸的战略能源和其他自然资源机遇之外关注到其他目标。


Japan, too – still the largest Asian economy and a traditional donor to the region – must also play a role.	还有现在仍然是亚��最大的经济体和传统赞助国的日本也必须发挥作用。


A moral but pragmatic community needs to be constructed, with all in agreement on how to deal with Myanmar.	必须建立合乎道德但又讲求实际的国际组织，让所有成员国以一致的步调与缅甸打交道。


Even if, like an orchestra, different countries use different instruments and play different notes, the main theme must be consistent.	即便不同国家像交响乐团那样使用不同乐器演奏不同的曲目，但乐曲的主题必须保持一致。


If this can be done, the chances of progress in the run-up to the 2010 elections will be strengthened.	如果能做到这一点，在2010年大选举行前取得进展的机会将会增大。


Success may still prove elusive, but a new game with a greater possibility for success will have begun.	成功可能仍然遥远，但新一轮努力已经开始，取得成功的可能性也比以往更大。


The Dark Heart of ASEAN	东盟的阴暗心理


WASHINGTON, DC – Next week, at a summit in California, US President Barack Obama will meet with the leaders of the ten countries of Asia’s most important regional grouping: the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.	华盛顿—在下周的加利福尼亚峰会上，美国总统奥巴马将回见亚洲最重要的地区集团东盟十国的领导人。


The event, the first-ever US-ASEAN summit on American soil, is being touted as a sign of America’s growing interest in Southeast Asia.	这次会议是第一次在美国举行美国-东盟峰会，被吹捧为美国对东南亚兴趣日益增加的信号。


The question is whether the US, by inviting all members of ASEAN, has allowed its interests to overwhelm its principles.	问题在于邀请了所有东盟成员国的美国是否会让利益压倒原则。


The upcoming summit is the latest manifestation of the Obama administration’s strategic “pivot” toward Asia – a national security strategy that entails a shift of American military, economic, and diplomatic resources toward the Pacific Rim countries.	这次即将到来的峰会是奥巴马政府战略性“转向”亚洲的最新证明。 转向亚洲是奥巴马的国家安全战略，美国的军事、经济和外交资源都将投向环太平洋国家。


In many ways, this move toward closer relations makes a lot of sense.	从很多方面讲，这一加强关系的转变具有重大意义。


For starters, tensions between several Southeast Asian countries and China are on the rise, owing partly to the fact that China, under President Xi Jinping (its most autocratic leader since Deng Xiaoping), has been acting increasingly assertively in staking its contested territorial claims in the region’s waters.	首先，一些东盟国家与中国的紧张关系正在升级，部分原因在于在习近平主席（邓小平以来最独裁的领导人）的领导下，中国在东南亚海域的争议性领土主张越来越咄咄逼人。


Most recently, China decided to move an oil rig into waters claimed by Vietnam.	最近，中国决定在越南主张领海的水域钻井开采石油。


A similar decision two years ago led to deadly anti-China riots in Vietnam.	两年前的类似决定导致越南爆发大规模反华骚乱。


And it is not just Vietnam that’s worried.	而担忧的不只是越南。


Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines are also trying to upgrade their navies and coast guards.	马来西亚、新加坡和菲律宾都在试图升级海军和海岸防卫力量。


Indeed, two decades after essentially tossing US forces out of local bases, the Philippines has welcomed back American troops as part of a new military cooperation deal.	事实上，在将美国力量事实驱逐出本地军事基地二十年后，菲律宾迎回了美国军队，以此作为新军事合作协议的一部分。


Even countries whose economies rely on China are worried.	就连经济上需要依赖中国的国家也深感担忧。


China is Laos’s biggest aid donor and largest trading partner; yet Laos’s ruling communist party last month elected a new leadership reportedly devoid of any pro-China politicians.	中国是老挝最大的援助国和贸易伙伴； 但在老挝执政的共产党上个月选出的新领导层据说没有一位亲华派。


In Myanmar, which also depends heavily on Chinese aid and trade, the fear of becoming a Chinese satellite was a key reason why the military junta ceded power to a civilian government in the early 2010s.	缅甸也非常依赖中国援助和对华贸易，但害怕沦为中国卫星国是21世纪10年代初缅甸军政府将权力移交给文职政府的关键原因。


Beyond security challenges, the US has a growing economic interest in Southeast Asia.	除了安全挑战，美国在东南亚的经济利益也日渐增加。


Together, the ASEAN countries comprise America’s fourth-largest trading partner.	东盟诸国合在一起是美国第四大贸易伙伴。


Some evidence also suggests that the new ASEAN Economic Community, a framework for a regional free-trade agreement, is helping Southeast Asian countries weather an increasingly turbulent global economic environment.	一些证据表明，新的东盟经济共同体（地区自由贸易协定框架）正在帮助东南亚国家抵御日益动荡的全球经济环境。


But there is one very serious problem with the upcoming US-ASEAN summit.	但即将到来的美国-东盟峰会有一个严重问题。


Since the US pivot to Asia was launched in 2011, Southeast Asia’s political systems have, on the whole, regressed significantly.	自美国从2011年开始实施转向亚洲战略以来，东南亚政治制度总体而言大幅倒退。


Over the last few years, Thailand has gone from flawed democracy to military rule, which could persist through 2018, or beyond.	在过去几年中，泰国从有缺陷的民主变成军事统治，这一状况可能一直持续到2018年以后。


Similarly, Malaysia appeared to be headed for a two-party democracy in 2011.	类似地，2011年，马来西亚大有进入两党制民主之势。 如今，反对派领导人伊布拉西姆（Anwar Ibrahim）因可疑的鸡奸指控入狱；


Today, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is in jail on dubious sodomy charges; the government has passed legislation that essentially authorizes it to detain critics indefinitely; and Prime Minister Najib Razak remains embroiled in multiple economic and political scandals.	政府通过了一项实质上授权它无限期拘捕批评者的立法； 而总理纳吉也深陷多宗经济和政治丑闻。


Cambodia, too, seemed like it had reached a political breakthrough after the opposition coalition nearly won the 2013 general election.	2013年，反对派联盟在柬埔寨大选中几乎获胜，柬埔寨似乎要迎来政治突破了。


But in the last two years, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has reasserted his political dominance.	但在过去两年中，柬埔寨首相洪森重新夺回了政治主宰地位。


Opposition leader Sam Rainsy, fearing arrest, has fled into exile.	反对派领导人沈良西因为害怕被捕而选择流亡。


Then there is Myanmar.	还有缅甸。


Although the Obama administration has touted the country as a shining example of democratic change, genuine democracy remains over the horizon.	尽管奥巴马政府将它捧为民主变革的显例，但其实真正的民主仍然望尘莫及。


True, the longtime opposition party, the National League for Democracy, won last November’s general election.	诚然，长期以来的反对党全国民主联盟（National League for Democracy）赢得了去年11月的大选。


But the military still controls many ministries and a quarter of the seats in parliament.	但军方仍然控制着诸多政府部门和四分之一议会席位。


Moreover, civil wars are erupting along Myanmar’s borders, and gangs and other radical groups are slaughtering Muslims in the country’s west.	此外，缅甸边境地区爆发内战，其西部则有黑帮和其他激进组织屠杀穆斯林。


Laos, Vietnam, and Brunei remain among the most repressive states in the world, with no evidence of political opening at all.	老挝、越南和文莱都是世界上最专制的国家，毫无政治开放迹象。


And though democracy has advanced in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore, progress has been slow; in Singapore, the ruling party continues to dominate the political system.	而尽管印尼、菲律宾和新加坡民主有所进步，但进步速度十分缓慢； 在新加坡，执政党继续主宰着政治体系。


Many factors account for the weakening of democracy in Southeast Asia.	东南亚民主式微的原因很多。


The region’s first generation of elected leaders, like former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, often proved to be no more than elected autocrats who used their majorities to crush their opponents and suppress technologies that could be used as tools for change.	该地区第一代民选领导人，如泰国前总理他信，最后并不比利用大多数人的支持镇压反对派、抑制可用来作为变革工具的技术的民选独裁者更强。


Indeed, Thailand, whose online repression has increased under the junta, now blocks more than 100,000 websites from its citizens.	事实上，泰国网络压迫在军政府治下变本加厉，目前已经屏蔽了超过100,000个网站。


Weak institutions mean many countries, such as Malaysia, struggle to resolve political crises; in Thailand, army takeovers have become the modus vivendi.	弱制度意味着许多国家，比如马来西亚，难以解决政治危机； 在泰国，军方接管已成为权宜之计。


Add to that the influence of China – hardly a force for democratic change – and Southeast Asia’s democratic regression is not particularly shocking.	除此之外则有中国的影响——巨肥民主变革力量——东南亚民主倒退算不上多么惊人的事。


What is troublesome is that the Obama administration has been reinforcing this damaging trend by bolstering ties with Southeast Asian autocrats.	麻烦之处在于，奥巴马政府一直在加强与东南亚独裁者的联系，这强化了这一破坏性趋势。


Obama has maintained close relations with Malaysia’s Najib (the two are reportedly golfing buddies).	奥巴马与马来西亚的纳吉保持着良好的关系（据说两人是高尔夫球友）。


When Obama visited Malaysia last year, he barely mentioned Anwar’s imprisonment.	去年，在奥巴马访问马来西亚期间，他对伊布拉西姆的入狱绝口不提。


The Obama administration also has been conspicuously quiet about abuses in Brunei, Laos, and Vietnam, inviting the head of Vietnam’s Communist Party to Washington, DC, last July for a showy and warm visit.	奥巴马政府还刻意对文莱、老挝和越南的侵犯权利的行为保持沉默，去年7月还盛情邀请越南共产党总书记访问华盛顿。


In recent months, the Obama administration has begun to restore links with Thailand that were put on ice after the May 2014 coup, including by resuming a high-level strategic dialogue.	最近几个月来，奥巴马政府开始重建与泰国的联系，包括重启高层战略对话。 美泰关系自2014年5月政变后陷入冰点。


Yet according to Human Rights Watch, “Thailand’s military junta tightened its grip on power and severely repressed fundamental rights” last year.	但据人权观察组织（Human Rights Watch）的数据，去年“泰国军政府加紧把持权力，严重迫害基本权利”。


And, so far this year, it has shown no signs of changing that approach.	而到今年目前为止，泰国并未表现出改变这一做法的迹象。


The upcoming US-ASEAN summit will include leaders – like Hun Sen, who has ruled Cambodia for 25 years – who were previously considered too ruthless and repressive to be received by the US president on American soil.	即将到来的美国-东盟峰会的一些出席领导人——如统治柬埔寨25年之久的洪森——此前被奥巴马认为过于残酷和专制，不容踏上美国领土。


It seems that security and economic considerations have now usurped democracy as leading determinants of US foreign policy in the region.	似乎如今安全和经济考虑已经超过了民主，成为美国东南亚外交政策的首要决定因素。


For the people of Southeast Asia, this approach may ultimately create more risks than benefits.	对东南亚人民来说，这一方针最终造成更多的风险而不是收益。


A Security Strategy for the 21st Century	为21世纪而生的安全战略


MADRID – “Time and again in our Nation’s history, Americans have risen to meet –and to shape – moments of transition. This must be one of those moments.”	发自马德里——“在吾国绵延至今的历史中，美国人民一再顺应并塑造了诸多历史性的转折，而今那些伟大的时刻，又将重现在我们面前。


So begins the National Security Strategy of the United States of America, presented before Congress on May 27.	”这段文字是5月27日呈交给美国国会的《美国国家安全战略》报告的开篇语。


As with the politics pursued in the Obama administration’s 16 months of office – dialogue, international commitment, nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament – the document’s strength lies in the position that it takes.	而这份报告的重点正是奥巴马政府执政16个月以来所追求的政治目标——对话、国际承诺、核不扩散以及裁军。


The Security Strategy is a clear departure from that of its predecessor and offers a wider conception of what national security represents for US President Barack Obama.	报告一方面展现了与前任政府截然不同的政策取向，另一方面则诠释了新总统自身对国家战略概念的更深刻理解。


In the face of the major challenges of our times, Obama has taken a stand with a comprehensive doctrine.	面对当今世界上的各个重大挑战，奥巴马采取了一种更加综合性的立场。


Indeed, the Security Strategy is almost a “National” Strategy.	事实上，这份安全战略报告几乎就体现了美国的整个国家战略。


Its thinking goes beyond the dominant, unilateral paradigm of its predecessor and includes a defense of international law. This is particularly noteworthy, given that none of the great treaties to create an international criminal court and a permanent war-crimes tribunal was signed by the US during George W. Bush’s presidency.	它的目光超越了前任政府那种唯我独尊的单边主义行动模式，并加入了捍卫国际法的内容，这点尤其重要，须知在小布什执政期间，美国是拒绝签署任何关于成立国际刑事法庭以及常设战争罪行特别法庭的重大条约的。


Obama’s approach to security is broader as well, proposing the “three Ds” – defense, diplomacy, and development – as indivisible parts of a whole.	奥巴马实现国家安全的手段也得到了拓展，他的“3D理念”将防御（defense），外交（diplomacy）和发展（development）组成一个不可分割的整体。


The military dimension of intervention abroad loses its privileged role, making way for the prevention of conflict and for peace-keeping and stabilization missions.	海外军事干涉行动失去了原有的优先地位，取而代之的则是派驻当地防范冲突，维持地区和平及稳定的代表团。


In the fight against terrorism, the Strategy abandons the predominantly military viewpoint underlying the war against terror, and embraces a more significant role for the intelligence services.	而在反恐方面，新战略摒弃了原本在反恐战争中占主导的军事斗争观，转而赋予了情报工作更重大的意义。


For the first time, precise reference is made to people liable to be a threat to US security. The US is not waging a war against terrorism; it is at “war against a specific network, al Qaida, and its affiliates.”	报告也首次对那些可能威胁美国安全的人员下了精确定义——美国并不是在打一场反对恐怖主义的战争，而是在“对抗一个特殊的网络，那就是基地组织及其分支”。


In this war, information resources are particularly necessary.	在这么一场战争中，情报资源就是关键。


In order to guarantee national security, the Strategy is categorical – without giving in to the temptation of isolationism – in admitting the strategic value of the example and the importance of doing one’s homework first.	为了确保国家安全，该战略不再偏向孤立主义，而是重视研究过往外交先例的战略价值，并提倡预先了解当地情况的重要性。


Obama steers clear both of interventions for humanitarian purposes and of attempting to export democracy by force.	对此奥巴马避开了两类行为：以人权为目的的干涉行动，以及用武力输出民主的理念。


There is no better way of exporting the values of democracy than by strengthening the US internally.	事实上，输出民主价值观的最佳方法，莫过于令美国从内部更加强大起来。


Thus, an economic policy that tackles America’s debt and deficit makes up the main portion of the Strategy.	因此一个缓解美国债务和财政赤字的经济政策被放到了显眼的位置。


Backing competitive education, innovation, technology, energy, and a more efficient and accessible health-care system complements and reinforces Obama’s leadership approach of setting an example with one’s own policies.	通过支持有竞争力的教育体系、创新、科技，能源以及一个更高效且更贴心的健康医疗系统，奥巴马树立个人“招牌政策”的领导方式得到了补充和加强。


An important example is removing the US prison at Guantánamo Bay from international limbo – one of his first initiatives as president.	而其中关塔那摩问题就是一个重要的例子，奥巴马上任伊始立刻提出的举措之一，就是将这个原本处于法律真空地带的监狱置于国际监管之下。


This approach does not have unanimous support among international experts.	对于奥巴马的新领导方式，国际上的专家们各执己见。


The two main criticisms – lack of strategic clarity and less emphasis on the classical concepts of power – point to America’s loss of influence, power, and leadership.	而主要的两种批评声音——其一是认为报告缺乏战略清晰度，二是对权力的经典概念缺乏足够重视——指出了美国在国际影响力，权力以及领导地位等方面的式微。


But these criticisms reflect an inability to contemplate the current nature of armed conflict, which no longer follows the classical logic of military victory or defeat.	但这些批评实际��也反映了这些人对近年来武装冲突本质的错误理解，须知这些冲突已经不能再用传统的战争成败逻辑来评断了。


The war in Afghanistan and the complex situation in Iraq have highlighted the importance of a comprehensive approach.	而凸显了上述综合性手段重要性的，正是阿富汗战争以及当前伊拉克的复杂局势。


Military action cannot be considered the only variable of success. A successful strategy should use civilian means – incidentally a model advocated by the European Union.	军事行动不再是取得胜利的唯一手段，一个战略的成功必须借助民间行动来实现——这也恰恰也是欧盟最近所提倡的模式。


We are faced with forging a new long-term policy that affects both states and societies. That task requires patience and strategic perseverance.	对此，我们需要塑造一个能同时对国家政府和民间社会起作用的，崭新的长期政策，这要求我们有足够的耐心和战略持续性。


Change will not occur from one day to the next, but the results obtained in the end will be better and more enduring.	变化不会在短期内发生，但最终取得的成果将更为完美而且更具有可持续性。


Obama maintains the idea of service to a historical mission for the US: the important job of guaranteeing global security.	与此同时，奥巴马依旧肩负着美国所承担着的历史任务——维护全球安全。


But, unlike his White House predecessors, Obama’s National Security Strategy recognizes the value of partnerships; attaches greater importance to the civilian dimension as opposed to the military; and stresses the value of dialogue and the need to reinforce international institutions.	但与他那些前任不同的是，奥巴马的国家安全战略承认伙伴关系的价值； 把更多的重点放在民间而不是军事上；


This is a good sign for a world with different power centers and interests, with resources and legitimacy remaining tied to the nation-state, but in which challenges (climate change, armed conflicts, pandemics, and transnational crime) are global and, therefore, require cooperation among states.	强调对话的价值以及更强大的国际机制。 这对于一个拥有不同权力中心和利益，而资源和合法性依然分散在各个民族国家手中，但却面临着气候变化，武装冲突，跨国疾病疫情以及跨国犯罪等诸多全球问题，从而急待各国联手解决的世界来说，是一个好兆头。


We are in a transition period: international interconnection is increasing, as the global economic crisis has shown, but the management tools and mechanisms to guarantee the smooth operation of governments are still not being shared.	我们正处在一个时代的转折点上：正如全球经济危机所展现的那样，国际间的关联性不断增加，但确保政府间平稳运作的管理工具和机制却尚未形成。


Obama’s new National Security Strategy shows a political willingness to back an international order able to tackle these challenges.	而奥巴马的新国家安全策略则表达了一种政治意愿，希望能建立一个可以应对上述挑战的国际秩序。


The road ahead is not free of difficulties, but the Strategy represents a decisive step towards solving the challenges of the twenty-first century and preparing us for the world of tomorrow.	前面的路注定坎坷，但这一策略在应对这些21世纪的挑战方面已经迈出了决定性的一步，并有助于我们共同迎接未来。


A Seismic Crime	一宗与地震有关的罪行


NEW YORK – Few people outside Italy are aware that six seismologists and a government official are on trial in the small city of L’Aquila.	发自纽约——在一座名为拉奎拉的意大利小城里，有六位地震学家以及一位政府官员被送上了法庭。


But the story has implications for scientists, engineers, administrators, and legal systems far beyond Italy’s borders.	虽然此事在国外并未引起多大的注意，但它对科学家，工程师，行政管理者以及司法系统所造成的影响却是全球范围的。


L’Aquila was largely destroyed by earthquakes in 1461 and 1703.	拉奎拉这座城市曾经在1461年和1703年遭到地震的严重破坏。


The city was rebuilt, eventually grew to more than 73,000 inhabitants, and remained stable for more than 300 years – until October 2008, when tremors began again.	人们实施了灾后重建，将其最终发展成为一座拥有超过7.


From January 1 through April 5, 2009, 304 additional tremors were reported.	3万人的城市，并保持了300多年的稳定——直到2008年10月重新出现微震为止，而在随后的2009年1月1日到4月5日间又发生了合共304次微震。


Italy’s National Commission for Prediction and Prevention of Major Risks, which comprised the seven men now on trial, met in L’Aquila for one hour on March 31, 2009, to assess the earthquake swarms.	而由上述7位受审者所组成的意大利国家大型灾害预防委员会于2009年3月31日在拉奎拉召开了一小时的地震评估会议。


According to the minutes, Enzo Boschi, President of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, was asked if they were precursors to an earthquake resembling the one in 1703.	根据当时的会议记录，有人询问意大利国家地球物理学及火山学研究中心主任恩佐·波斯齐（Enzo Boschi）这些微震是否会是一场类似1703年地震的前兆。


He replied: “It is unlikely that an earthquake like the one in 1703 could occur in the short term, but the possibility cannot be totally excluded.”	波斯齐回答说：“短期来说不可能发生类似1703年那样的灾害，但也无法完全排除这种可能性。 ”


On April 6, 2009, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck L’Aquila and nearby towns, killing more than 300 people and injuring more than 1,500.	谁知就在几天后的4月6号，一场里氏6. 3级的大地震袭击了拉奎拉城以及附近城镇，造成超过300人死亡1500多人受伤。


The quake also destroyed roughly 20,000 buildings, temporarily displacing another 65,000 people.	地震同时摧毁了近2万栋房屋，致使6. 5万人无家可归。


More than a year later, in July 2010, prosecutor Fabio Picuti charged the Commission members with manslaughter and negligence for failing to warn the public of the impending risk.	在此次地震发生一年多之后的2010年7月，检查官法比奥·皮库迪（Fabio Picuti）以误杀和玩忽职守罪对委员会成员提起公诉，认为他们未能将如此迫近的危险告知公众。


The trial began last September, and is expected to last for months, if not years.	法庭于去年9月年开庭，预计审理过程就算不超过一年，至少也将持续数月。


After Picuti made the charges public in June 2010, Alan Leshner, Executive Publisher of Science, sent an open letter of protest to Italian President Giorgio Napolitano on behalf of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.	在皮库迪在2010年6月公开此项起诉之时，《科学》杂志执行出版人艾伦·莱施纳（Alan Leshner）代表美国科学促进会向意大利总统乔治·纳波利塔诺（Giorgio Napolitano）递交了公开抗议信。


He wrote that the “charges against these scientists are both unfair and naïve….[T]here is no accepted scientific method for earthquake prediction that can be reliably used to warn citizens of an impending disaster.”	他在信中写到：“对这些科学家的指控是不公平而且幼稚的……对于地震的预测，目前并没有公认可靠的科学预警方法可以使民众避免一场即将降临的灾害。


The American Geophysical Union and thousands of other scientists also objected.	”美国地球物理学联盟以及数千位科学家也反对这一指控行为。


Picuti reportedly responded: “I’m not crazy.	据报道，皮库迪回应说：“我并不是疯了。


I know they can’t predict earthquakes.	我知道他们无法预测地震。


The basis of the charges is not that they didn’t predict the earthquake.	这些指控的依据也并不是因为他们未能预测地震。


As functionaries of the state, they had certain duties imposed by law: to evaluate and characterize the risks that were present in L’Aquila.”	但作为国家公职人员，他们承担着法律赋予的特殊责任：衡量并定义在拉奎拉所出现的那些风险。 ”


In 1989, a United States National Research Council report, Improving Risk Communication, recommended that one-way communication from experts to non-experts be replaced with an “interactive process of exchange of information and opinion.”	在1989年，一份名为《增强危机沟通》的美国国家研究委员会报告就建议使用一种“交换信息和意见的互动程序”来取代原先那种由专家来知会非专家的单向沟通方式。


The report suggested that risk communication is successful only if those involved are satisfied that they are adequately informed about the relevant issues, given the limits of available knowledge.	报告认为由于可供利用的知识有限，只有在所有参与者都认为自己得到了相关事务充分信息的情况下才能实现危机沟通。


Yet such information exchange remains a problem – and not only in Italy – more than 20 years later.	但这种信息交换方式在超过20年后——也不仅限于意大利——依然未能完善。


The interactions between science, technology, and law are growing increasingly complex.	科学，技术和法律之间的互动正逐渐变得复杂。


As science and technologies evolve, risk assessments and the dialogue between scientists and governments must adapt.	随着科学技术的介入，危机风险评估以及科学家与政府官员之间的对话也必须做出调整。


Both sides must continually determine, before disaster strikes, whether existing laws provide scientists and administrators with clear, realistic standards for their analyses and public communications.	在灾难袭来之前，双方都必须持续评估当前的法律是否为科学家和官员们的分析和公共沟通提供了清晰可行的操作标准。


If they do not, the best qualified scientists and administrators might be frightened away.	如果做不到这一点，那么那些最优秀的科学家和行政管理者都将噤若寒蝉。


In 2011, the National Research Council and the US Federal Judicial Center issued the 1,016-page third edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence.	在2011年，美国国家研究委员会以及联邦司法中心发布了厚达1016页的《科学证据参考手册》第三版。


Although its purpose is to help judges and attorneys to understand the science from which legal evidence is derived, its index contains no entry for earthquakes.	虽然该手册的目的就是为了帮助法官和律师理解法律证据背后的科学依据，但其索引中却没有任何关于地震的条目。


Furthermore, the manual mentions risk communication only briefly, in the context of medical testimony.	此外手册也只是在医疗证词方面粗略提到了一些与危机沟通有关的内容。


Given such shortcomings, courses on science and engineering and their social applications should become part of the core training and continuing education of those in law, public administration, and official policymaking positions.	考虑到这些不足之处，必须在对法律界人士，政府官员和政策制订者们的核心培训和继续教育中加入关于科学工程以及其社会应用的内容。


Legislators, prosecutors, and judges, in particular, need to understand what natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering can and cannot offer.	而立法者，检察官和法官也尤其应当明白自然科学，社会科学和工程学有其长处，但也不是万能的。


At the same time, natural scientists must become better educated to work effectively with engineers, public administrators, and social scientists (for example, economists, demographers, and psychologists) to communicate the consequences of scientific findings, especially when high risks are involved.	与此同时，自然科学家必须学会与工程师，公共行政管理者和社会科学家（比如经济学家，人口学家以及心理学家）更有效地进行合作并交流某些科学发现所可能揭示的后果，尤其是当这些发现关系到某些重大风险之时。


Those risks will not go away.	实际上，这些风险一直盘踞在我们身旁。


In February 2011, almost 200 people died when a 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck Christchurch, New Zealand.	在2011年2月，新西兰克莱斯特彻奇市的里氏6. 3级地震就造成了近200人死亡。


The following month, Japan’s Tōhoku earthquake killed almost 16,000 people.	而在随后的3月，日本东北大地震夺去了1. 6万人的生命。


As the anniversary of that earthquake approaches on March 11, Japanese researchers predicted in January 2012 that another major earthquake will strike the southern Kanto region, including Tokyo, by 2016 with 70% probability.	在今年3月11日的大地震周年祭临近之时，日本科学家在2012年1月发表预测，认为在2016年以前在包括东京在内的京都南部地区有70%的可能会爆发另一场大地震。


The Big One will one day strike California. Will we be ready?	那么面对有朝一日可能袭击加利福尼亚的大地震，我们美国人又准备好了吗？


The Eurozone’s Narrowing Window	欧元区选择面在收窄


PRINCETON – Portuguese authorities recently made a preemptive offer to their country’s creditors: Instead of redeeming bonds maturing in September 2013, the government would stretch its repayment commitment out to October 2015.	普林斯顿—葡萄牙当局最近先发制人给该国债权人来了个下马威：它将不会履行2013年9月到期债权的偿还义务，而是将偿还期限延长到2015年。


The deal was concluded on October 3, and has been interpreted as a successful market test for Portugal.	该计划在10月3日宣布，并被解读为葡国政府对市场的成功测试。


Ireland’s authorities have conducted similar recent operations, exchanging short-maturity paper for longer-term debt.	爱尔兰当局最近也宣布了类似的计划，用短期票据替换长期债券。


These transactions highlight the broader strategy of buying time.	这些交易凸显了赢取时间的更大战略。


Both countries are seeking to create a longer, more manageable repayment profile for their privately-held debt as they begin weaning themselves from dependence on official “bailout” funds provided by the “troika” (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund).	为了不再依赖“三驾马车”（欧洲委员会、欧洲央行和IMF）所提供的正式“援助”资金，两国均在寻求为其握于私人手中的债务创造更长期、更便于管理的偿付结构。


Private investors are acknowledging the reality that repayments will likely be drawn out, because insisting on existing terms could cause an untenable bunching of debt-service payments, with possibly unpleasant consequences.	私人投资者也承认了偿还其可能会被拉长的现实，因为坚持按现有条款偿付将导致不可持续的债务偿付压力，造成不利的后果。


This strategy’s success presupposes that, in the interim, economic growth will strengthen the capacity to repay debt down the line.	该战略的成功有个前提：在此期间，经济增长能够提振债务偿付能力。


The debt ratios for both Ireland and Portugal are expected to peak at about 120% of GDP in 2013, after which they are projected to fall.	据估计，爱尔兰和葡萄牙的债务比率将在2013年迎来高峰，达到GDP的120%，此后则会下降。


The peak ratio and the subsequent downward trajectory depend crucially on the assumed pace of economic growth.	峰值比率及其后的下降很大程度上取决于经济增长的速度。


But growth prospects remain grim.	但增长前景并不乐观。


The Portuguese economy is now expected to contract by 1% in 2013.	目前，人们预计葡萄牙经济将在2013年收缩1%。


In late June, the IMF projected modest growth, and, at the time of the “bailout” agreement in May 2011, GDP in 2013 was expected to grow by 1.25%.	而6月末，IMF预计葡萄牙将略有增长。 再往前，2011年5月“援助”协议达成时，葡萄牙2013年GDP预期增长率为1.


Such successive downward forecast revisions have become commonplace.	类似的增长预期连续向下修正已是家常便饭。


The latest estimates for Italy and Spain project a deeper contraction, prolonged into next year.	对意大利和西班牙的最新估计表明将出现深度衰退，并会延续到明年。


Ireland is doing better, although its growth forecast has also been revised downward, to just under 0.5% in 2012 and 1.4% next year.	爱尔兰情况稍好，但其增长预期也被向下调整，2012年为0. 5%，明年则为1.


Moreover, Irish GNP (the income accruing to its nationals, as distinct from foreign firms operating in Ireland) continues to shrink.	4%。 此外，爱尔兰GNP（其国民收入的增长量，在爱尔兰经营的外国公司收入不再计算内）继续萎缩。


Each downward revision implies postponement of the date on which the debt/GDP ratio will peak.	每一次向下修正都意味着债务/GDP比率高峰期会推迟到来。


Beyond 2013, growth must depend on either the elixir of structural reforms, or a strong revival of the global economy.	2013年之后，增长要么依赖结构性改革的万灵丹，要么依赖全球经济的复苏。


But a revival of economic growth in the short term is unlikely.	但经济增长在短期内不太可能复苏。


Crucially for Europe, world trade has been virtually stagnant in recent months.	对欧洲来说，关键在于最近几个月世界贸易几乎陷入了停止。


Global trade and economic performance in the eurozone appear to be dragging each other down.	全球贸易和欧元区经济表现似乎在互相拖后腿。


The potential consequences are serious.	潜在后果相当严重。


While the IMF’s primary scenario is that Irish and Portuguese debt levels will soon stop rising, it comes with a chilling litany of downside risks.	IMF眼中的最可能情景是爱尔兰和葡萄牙债务水平很快就会停止上升，但严重的下行风险��未消除。


The likelihood that budget deficit and debt targets will be missed is rising.	预算赤字和债务目标无法达到的可能性在上升。


Thus, the eurozone faces three choices: even more austerity for the heavily-indebted countries, socialization of the debt across Europe, or a creative re-profiling of debt, with investors forced to accept losses sooner or later.	因此，欧元区面临三大选择：重债国进行更多的紧缩、将全欧洲债务社会化，以及创造性的债务重组（这意味着投资者迟早会被迫接受损失）。


Austerity alone cannot do it.	光靠紧缩一招是不够的。


Some countries face the growing risk of near-perpetual belt-tightening, which would further dampen growth and thus keep debt ratios high.	一些国家面临越来越大的长期紧缩风险，而长期紧缩将进一步削弱增长，从而维持债务比率的高水平。


After all, if a country’s debt/GDP ratio is to decline without austerity, the interest rate that it pays on its debt must be lower than its GDP growth rate.	毕竟，欲使一国债务/GDP比率在没有紧缩的情况下出现下降，该国对其债务所支付的利率就必须低于GDP增长率。


If the interest rate is higher than the growth rate, austerity is required; the wider the gap, the more austerity is needed.	如果利率高于增长率，则必须实施紧缩； 利率比增长率高得越多，所需的紧缩程度就越大。


Acknowledging the limits of austerity, several initiatives attempt a European resolution.	欧洲也认识到了紧缩的局限性，因此采取了不少欧洲解决方案。


Special European facilities, along with the IMF, lend money at below-market interest rates, which reduces the extent of austerity required.	专门的欧洲便利机制和IMF一道以低于市场水平的利率提供贷款，这有助于降低所需的紧缩程度。


But the facilities’ resources are dwindling, and they certainly would not be sufficient if Spain and Italy were to seek support.	但便利机制的资源正在告罄，如果西班牙和意大利也需要寻求支持，其规模将肯定不够。


The ECB’s announcement of a new program to purchase sovereign bonds has lowered market interest rates.	欧洲央行所宣布的购买主权债券的新计划压低了市场利率。


But, even with that decline, many countries’ long-term interest rates will most likely remain higher than their growth rates for the next several years.	但是，即使市场利率有所降低，许多国家的长期利率仍将高于未来几年的经济增长率。


More ambitious pan-European efforts are embodied in various Eurobond proposals.	许多欧洲方案都纳入了更有雄心的泛欧洲计划。


These schemes imply socialization of debt – taxpayers elsewhere in Europe would share a country’s debt burden.	这些机制都暗含了债务社会化——欧洲其他国家的纳税人将共同承担某一国家的债务负担。


These proposals, once in great vogue, have receded.	这些计划曾经颇为流行，但现在举步维艰。


Not surprisingly, the political opposition to such debt mutualization was intense.	毫不奇怪，此类债务共同化的政治阻力是巨大的。


Given that perpetual austerity is untenable and others in Europe can only do so much, without robust growth the options will narrow quickly.	持久紧缩是不可持续的，欧洲友邦援助之力又极为有限，因此，如果不能维持稳健增长，则方案选项会极为有限。


As a result, much now hangs on the ECB’s actions – and how long they will be sufficient to maintain a truce with financial markets.	结果，欧洲央行就成了万众瞩目的救星——其行动可以在多长时间内保持金融市场稳定？


Perhaps the Portuguese time-buying strategy points the way ahead.	或许葡萄牙争取时间的战略点出了未来的方向。


But time eventually does run out.	但时间总会耗尽的。


If buying time is not enough, will there finally be a greater call on bondholders to share the pain?	如果争取时间仍不足以解决问题，最后债权人会被迫接受分担痛苦吗？


The Looming Lost Decade	即将失去的十年


PRINCETON – As 2013 comes to an end, it looks like the world economy will remain stuck in low gear.	发自普林斯顿——2013年已经临近尾声，看起来全球经济将继续保持低速运转。


For those reading the tea leaves of global recovery, the third-quarter GDP numbers offered no solace.	对于那些预测全球复苏的人来说，第三季度的GDP数据无法提供任何安慰。


While the United States is ahead of the pack, some of its gains could soon be lost, as accumulating inventories begin eroding profits.	纵使美国处于领先地位，但它的一些收益可能很快就会消失，因为不断积压的库存开始侵蚀利润。


Despite glimmers of hope, the eurozone and Japan are struggling to cross the 1% threshold for annual economic growth.	尽管希望的曙光初现，但欧元区和日本的年度经济增长还在奋力跨越1%的门槛。


And the major emerging economies are all slowing, with Russia practically at a standstill.	同时，主要新兴经济体都发展缓慢，其中俄罗斯几乎处于停滞状��。


Not surprisingly, a catchphrase in economic-policy debates nowadays is “secular stagnation,” the idea that excess savings chronically dampen demand.	不出意外，如今经济政策的辩论的一个标题就是“长期停滞”，认为过度的储蓄会长期压抑需求。


The economist Robert Gordon has also argued that the world is low on economically productive ideas.	经济学家罗伯特·戈登也认为世界缺乏经济上富有创造性的理念。


But before we despair, there is work to be done.	但在绝望之前我们还有工作要做。


The coordinated fiscal stimulus that saved the world from economic collapse in 2009 disappeared too quickly, with governments shifting their focus to domestic politics and priorities.	各国协同下的财政刺激手段在2009年经济危机中拯救了世界，但它也随着政府的注意力转向国内政治以及优先事项而很快消失。


As domestic policy options have been exhausted, economic prospects have dimmed. A renewed emphasis on stimulus must be augmented by global coordination on the timing and content of stimulus measures.	如今国内政策选择用尽，经济前景黯淡，必须把注意力重新放在刺激政策之上，并通过对刺激手段时机和内容的全球协同来对其进行扩充。


The crisis was and remains global.	危机仍然是全球性的。


Trade data tell the story: after increasing by about 7% annually in the decade before 2008, world trade fell faster than global GDP in 2009 (and more sharply than during the Great Depression).	贸易数据告诉我们：在2008年之前那十年，世界贸易以每年7%左右的速度增长，但在2009年其降速却快于全球GDP的降速（也比大萧条时期更剧烈）。


Once the brief stimulus-fueled recovery faded, growth in world trade again slowed quickly, falling to 2% year on year over the past 18 months.	一旦短暂刺激推动的复苏消失，世界贸易的增长再次迅速放缓，在过去18个月内跟去年同期相比降到了2%。


Disappointing export performance is largely responsible for the recent weakening of economic-growth prospects.	而出口业绩令人失望的主要原因则是近期经济增长前景减弱。


At the end of 2008, when the scale of the impending economic destruction was not yet apparent, Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, boldly called for a global fiscal stimulus, stating that, in these “not normal times,” the IMF’s usual advice – fiscal retrenchment and public-debt reduction – did not apply.	2008年底，当即将到来的经济破坏程度还没显现，国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家奥利维尔·布兰查德大胆呼吁全球性财政刺激方案，他指出在这些“非常时期”，国际货币基金组织的常用建议——财政紧缩和减少公共债务——是无效的。


He warned that if the international community did not come together, “vicious cycles” of deflation, liquidity traps, and increasingly pessimistic expectations could take hold.	他警告说，如果国际社会不能走到一起，那将会出现“恶性循环”的通货紧缩，流动性陷阱以及越来越悲观的预期。


Fortunately, world leaders listened, agreeing in April 2009 at the G-20 Summit in London to provide a total of $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus.	幸运的是，世界各国领导听取了建议，并在2009年的伦敦G20峰会上同意提供总额达5万亿美元的财政刺激。


The US and Germany added stimulus amounting to about 2% of GDP.	美国和德国还添加了相当于本国GDP2%的刺激政策。


And China’s banks pumped massive amounts of credit into the country’s economy, enabling it to sustain import demand, which was critical to the global recovery.	中国的银行注入了大量的信贷进入该国经济，使其维持进口需求，这是全球经济复苏的关键。


But hubris rapidly set in, and parochial interests took over.	但是骄傲情绪迅速滋生，狭隘利益接管了局势。


Before the wounds had fully healed, the treatment was terminated.	在伤口完全愈合之前，治疗就被终止了。


The worst offenders were the US and Germany, which shirked the responsibility to protect the global common good that accompanies their status as economic hegemons.	罪魁祸首是美国和德国，为了维护自身的经济霸主地位，它们推卸了保护全球共同利益的责任。


The United Kingdom, with its contrived rationale for fiscal austerity, was not much better.	英国为其财政紧缩所找的勉强理由也好不到哪里去。


Fiscal stimulus by these three countries – together with smaller contributions from France and China – could have continued the necessary healing.	而这三个国家的财政刺激——加上法国和中国贡献的较少力量——本可以使得必需的治疗继续。


Countries now seem to think that monetary-policy measures are their only option.	各国如今似乎都认为货币政策措施是它们唯一的选择。


But, whereas fiscal stimulus boosts growth at home and abroad, enabling mutual reinforcement through world trade, monetary policy is guided primarily by domestic goals, and, in the short term, one country’s gain can be another’s loss.	但在财政刺激促进国内外经济增长，通过世界贸易相互增强各国国力的时候，货币政策却主要受国内目标引导，在短期内一个国家的收益会是另一个国家的损失。


America leads the world in monetary-policy ambition.	而货币政策方面最具野心的国家是美国。


The researchers Cynthia Wu and Fan Dora Xia estimate that the US Federal Reserve’s open-ended asset purchases (so-called quantitative easing, or QE) have led to an effective US policy rate of -1.6%.	据研究者芝加哥大学教授吴静和夏凡估计，美联储的无限期资产购买计划（所谓的量化宽松政策或QE）导致美国实际政策利率为-1. 6%。


QE helped American exports by weakening the dollar relative to other currencies.	量化宽松政策通过削弱美元兑其他货币的汇率协助美国出口。


Once the Japanese engineered their own QE, the yen promptly depreciated. That has kept the euro strong.	一旦日本启动自己的量化宽松政策之后领导日元迅速贬值，而那使得欧元走强。


The weakest of the “big three” developed economies – the eurozone – has thus been left with the strongest currency.	“三大”发达经济体中最弱的——欧元区——也因此留下成为了最强的货币。


In the third quarter of 2013, Germany’s export growth slowed and French exports fell.	在2013年第三季度德国的出口增长放缓而法国出口下跌。


After a spike earlier in the year, Japan’s exports have also contracted.	经过年初的井喷，日本的出口也出现了收缩。


Only US exports have maintained some traction, thanks to the weaker dollar.	只有美国的出口在美元的疲软下保持了一定的动力。


In the 1930’s, after the gold standard broke down, world leaders could not agree on coordinated reflation of the global economy.	在20世纪30年代金本位崩溃后，全球领导人不可能再同意一致行动进行全球经济的通货再膨胀。


In his book Golden Fetters, the economist Barry Eichengreen argued that the lack of coordinated action dragged out the global recovery process.	对此经济学家巴里·艾肯格林在他的著作《黄金枷锁》中认为，缺乏协同行动拖累了全球复苏的进程。


Such delays are costly, and risk allowing pathologies to fester, prolonging the healing process further.	这样的延误是代价高昂的，并且可能冒上放任事态恶化的风险，进一步延长经济修复过程。


Now, despite unfavorable political circumstances, Blanchard should make an even bolder call.	现在，尽管政治环境不利，布兰查德应该进行更大胆的呼吁。


These are still not “normal” times, and the “vicious cycles” persist.	现在仍是非“正常”的时代，“恶性循环”依旧存在。


Another global fiscal stimulus – focused on public investment in infrastructure and education – would deliver the adrenaline shot needed for a robust recovery.	另一项全球财政刺激——集中在基础设施和教育方面——将为强劲复苏提供所需的刺激。


More public investment is twice blessed.	祈愿有更多的公共投资。


It can shake the world out of its stupor; and it can safeguard against “secular stagnation.”	它可以使世界摆脱混沌； 它可以防止“长期停滞”。


The US, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and China should act together to provide that boost.	美国，德国，英国，法国以及中国应共同采取行动和提供帮助。


Otherwise, a sustainable global recovery may remain elusive, in which case 2014 could end in low gear as well.	否则，可持续的全球经济复苏可能仍然是难以捉摸的，在这种情况下，2014年将同样会以低增长告终。


The IMF’s False Confession	IMF的伪善陈述


PRINCETON – “Do I have to go on my knees?” the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, asked the BBC’s Andrew Marr.	普林斯顿—“要不我跪下谢罪？ ”国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁拉加德如此问BBC的安德鲁·马尔（Andrew Marr）。


Lagarde was apologizing for the IMF’s poor forecasting of the United Kingdom’s recent economic performance, and, more seriously, for the Fund’s longer-standing criticism of the fiscal austerity pursued by Prime Minister David Cameron’s government.	拉加德在致歉，为IMF对英国近期经济表现预测失准，以及更严重的，为IMF对英国首相卡梅伦的财政紧缩措施的长期批评立场。


Now endorsing British austerity, Lagarde said that it had increased confidence in the UK’s economic prospects, thereby spurring the recent recovery.	如今，拉加德支持英国的紧缩措施，表示这提升了对英国经济前景的信心，从而刺激了目前的复苏。


Lagarde’s apology was unprecedented, courageous, and wrong.	拉加德的致歉是前所未有的，是充满勇气的，也是错误的。


By issuing it, the IMF compromised on an economic principle that enjoys overwhelming academic support: The confidence “fairy” does not exist.	她的致歉表明IMF向一个学界压倒性支持的经济学原理低了头：信心“仙子”并不存在。


And, by bowing to the UK’s pressure, the Fund undermined its only real asset – its independence.	而向英国的压力低头表明IMF丧失了它的真正财富——独立性。


The IMF has dodged responsibility for far more serious forecasting errors, including its failure to anticipate every major crisis of the last generation, from Mexico in 1994-1995 to the near-collapse of the global financial system in 2008.	到目前为止，IMF对其更严重的预测错误闪烁其词，包括未能预测到过去20年中的所有重大危机，从1994—1995年的墨西哥到2008年全球金融体系的几乎崩溃莫不如此。


Indeed, in the 6-12 months prior to every crisis, the IMF’s forecasts implied business as usual.	事实上，在每一次危机爆发前6—12个月，IMF的预测都表明一切如常。


Some claim that the Fund counsels countries in private, lest public warnings trigger the very crisis that is to be avoided.	有人声称IMF私下里对各国进行了预警，但担心公开警告会触发意欲避免的危机。


But, with the possible exception of Thailand in 1997, the IMF’s long-time resident historian, James Boughton, finds little evidence for that view in internal documents.	但是，IMF长期专职历史学家詹姆斯·波顿（James Boughton）发现，除了1997年的泰国可能是个例外，内部档案中也不存在有过此类警告的证据。


The IMF’s Internal Evaluation Office is more directly scathing in its assessment of the Fund’s obliviousness to the US subprime crisis as it emerged.	IMF内部评估办公室（Internal Evaluation Office）更是在其评估报告中直接批评了IMF对美国次贷危机毫无警觉。


Given that the IMF is the world’s anointed guardian of financial stability, its failure to warn and preempt constitutes a far more grievous lapse than its position on British austerity, with huge costs borne by many, especially the most vulnerable.	IMF是全球金融稳定的法定监护人，预警和预防失败的问题远比其对英国紧缩的看法严重得多，前者会导致极大的代价，并且这些代价往往会影响到无数人，特别是最脆弱群体。


For these failures, the Fund has never offered any apology, certainly not in the abject manner of Lagarde’s recent statement.	对于这些失败，IMF从未致歉，至少没有过类似于拉加德最近表态那样的致歉。


The Fund does well to reflect on its errors.	IMF在反思错误方面做得挺好。


In a September 2003 speech in Kuala Lumpur, then-Managing Director Horst Köhler conceded that temporary capital controls can provide relief against volatile inflows from the rest of the world.	2003年9月，时任总裁科勒（Horst Köhler）在吉隆坡的讲话中承认临时性资本管制可能有助于世界其他地区免受高波动流入的影响。


He was presumably acknowledging that the Fund had it wrong when it criticized Malaysia for imposing such controls at the height of the Asian crisis.	这番话等于承认了IMF对马来西亚在亚洲危机顶峰时期采取资本管制的批评是错误的。


Among the countries hurt by that crisis, Malaysia chose not to ask for the Fund’s help and emerged at least as well as others that did seek IMF assistance.	在受危机冲击的国家中，马来西亚没有向IMF求助，最后的结果并不比求助IMF的国家差。


Malaysia’s imposition of capital controls was a controversial policy decision.	马来西亚实施资本管制的政策决定颇具争议。


And even as the Fund opposed them, prominent economists – among them Paul Krugman – endorsed their use.	而尽管IMF反对，不少著名经济学家——包括克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）——都支持资本管制。