As for the Darfur opposition, the recent efforts by some of its leaders to overcome fragmentation and re-unify their movement are a welcome development.	而对于达尔福尔的反对派来说，最近几位领导人跨越分歧，努力采取一致行动是一个好的动向。


It is essential that all major opposition groups achieve agreement about their aims and negotiating positions.	各主要反对派能够就其目标和谈判立场达成一致是很重要的。


Only then can they act as credible partners of the international community and the Sudanese government.	只有这样，他们才能成为国际社会以及苏丹政府的可靠伙伴。


All parties to the conflict must realize that, ultimately, there is no way to end their dispute other than through an equitable and sustainable peace agreement endorsed by all stakeholders.	分歧各方都应认识到，解决分歧的最终途径只能是在各方同意的基础上达成的公正而长期的和平协定。


The return of internally displaced persons and due care for them must be a core component of any such arrangement.	帮助那些国内移民重返家园以及对他们提供应有的关心是这些协定的一个中心环节。


Responsible people around the globe, particularly politicians and journalists, must remain focused on Darfur. For the grievances and harm suffered daily by millions of victims and refugees remain as gruesome as ever, notwithstanding the fatigue from the prolonged conflict that some may perceive.	全世界能起作用的人们，特别是政治家和记者们，应该保持对达尔福尔的关注，那里上百万受害者以及难民每日经受的苦难依然令人恐怖。


Now that there are signs of possible stabilization in the months to come, it is time to start preparing for increased volumes of international reconstruction and development assistance, in addition to humanitarian aid.	此外，他们还经受着有些人所想见的由于长期纷争所带来的疲惫。 现在有了几个月后可能出现的稳定苗头，现在正是时候准备增加为重建和发展所提供的国际援助以及人道主义援助。


Economically advanced countries in particular should meet their global responsibility and help Darfur move toward renewal and prosperity.	经济发达国家特别需要担负起国际责任，帮助达尔福尔走向复兴和发展。


This increased assistance should emerge from an extension or re-focusing of national development cooperation programs.	这种援助应该是国家发展合作项目的扩展或重新定位。


Additionally, international arrangements aiming at effective use of synergies should be carefully explored.	另外，国际上应该仔细研究如何有效地利用协同合作这一手段。


In facilitating the complex relations between the international community and the local actors in Darfur, the UN currently plays an indispensable role and must be actively supported.	为了加强国际社会与达尔福尔当地各派间的复杂关系，联合国积极发挥着无可替代的作用并应得到积极支持。


China in particular should use its considerable influence in Sudan to bring the country’s decision-makers to a definitive peaceful settlement of the dispute.	中国特别应该利用其在苏丹的影响力促成该国的决策者们达成和平解决争端的确切方案。


Moreover, because Darfur is emblematic of wider difficulties in the world, the international community must look beyond the immediate circumstances of the conflict and increase efforts to deal with the threats that have played a role in the disaster, such as climate change and environmental degradation.	另外，由于达尔福尔代表着更为广泛的难题，国际社会的眼光不应该局限于目前的争端，而应加大力度解决灾难中的危险隐患，比如气候变化以及环境恶化。


Indeed, the accelerating expansion of deserts will likely lead to a decrease of agricultural yields from the surrounding areas, acute deterioration of the availability of water, and possibly to further conflicts and displacement of people.	确实，沙漠的加速扩大将导致附近的农业减产、水资源严重恶化，造成了更多争端以及人们的迁移。


Similar conditions exist – or may begin to exist – in several locations worldwide.	全世界各个地区还存在着相同的情况――也许刚刚开始存在。


So the global nature of this problem must be recognized and addressed in places where environmental degradation is already bringing about a dangerous deterioration in peoples’ lives.	因此，在那些环境恶化已经使人们生活严重恶化的地区，这一问题的全球性应该被认识到并被重视起来。


Where such damage looms as a threat, early prevention is required.	一旦这些危害构成了危险，提早预防是很有必要的。


Achieving the third 90% (suppression of the viral load) depends mainly on whether AVR-treated individuals take the medications on schedule.	实现第三个90%（遏制病毒量）主���取决于接受AVR疗法的个体是否按时治疗。


The End of the European Supernation?	欧洲超国家的终结？


MADRID – Since the eurozone crisis began in 2008, the European Union has, from a political perspective, led an intergovernmental life in supranational clothing.	发自马德里——从政治的角度看，自2008年欧元区危机爆发以来，欧盟一直是在一个超国家机构的外衣下按照跨政府机构的模式运作着。


But as the EU prepares to negotiate Britain’s exit, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the Union no longer has any clothes at all.	但随着欧盟准备就英国的退出举行谈判，很显然该机构正日渐撕下这层外衣。


The question now is whether the EU’s status as an enterprise dominated by its member states is permanent.	如今的问题是欧盟作为一个由其成员国主导的集合体的状态是否是永久性的。


The supremacy of member states – especially Germany – in EU decision-making is far from new.	某些会员国在欧盟决策过程中享有的霸主地位——尤其是德国——早就不是什么新鲜事了。


It was evident throughout the euro crisis, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, along with the European Council’s then-president, Belgium’s Herman Van Rompuy, took center stage.	很显然在整个欧元区危机期间，德国总理安吉拉·默克尔和她的财政部长沃尔夫冈·朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schäuble）以及时任欧洲理事会主席的比利时人赫尔曼·范龙佩（Herman Van Rompuy）就占据了主导地位。


But the myth of European supranationalism persisted.	但欧洲超国家主义的神话依然存在。


In particular, after Jean-Claude Juncker took over as President of the European Commission in 2014, the EU’s executive branch began to bill itself as a Brussels-based institution capable of leading the way toward what Juncker called in his 2015 State of the Union speech “more Union in our Union.”	尤其是在让-保罗·容克（Jean-Claude Juncker）在2014年接任欧盟委员会主席后，欧盟的执行机构开始将自身认定为一个总部位于布鲁塞尔且有能力带领各国向着容克在2015年欧盟国情咨文讲话中所谓“更联合的联盟”迈进的机构。


This year, Juncker delivered a far more sober speech.	而今年容克的讲话就没那么乐观了。


Indeed, it seems that the June Brexit vote has chastened not only Juncker, but all of the Commission’s Europhiles, who have largely been sidelined in the ensuing battle over what Europe will look like. (The notable exception is Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager’s very public stand on taxation, the outcome of which is still to be determined.)	事实上六月的英国脱欧公投似乎不仅打击了他，还给欧盟委员会中的所有亲欧派都泼了盆冷水，以致他们在随后关于欧洲应该呈现何种面目的争论中都被边缘化了——其中一个值得留意的例外是欧盟竞争事务专员玛格丽特·维斯塔格（Margrethe Vestager）在税收方面持有的受欢迎程度极高的立场，但其最终结果仍有待定夺。


Instead, that battle has been playing out largely within the European Council, with Merkel assuming a central role.	相反，这场争论很大程度上是在欧洲理事会内展开的，而默克尔则在其中承担了核心作用。


While it is impossible to say exactly what the EU that emerges will look like, it seems clear that it will look nothing like the Brussels-centric, deeply integrated Shangri-La long sought by many at the Commission.	虽然无法具体描述未来即将呈现的欧盟是个什么样子，但似乎可以明确的一点是，它肯定不会是一个许多委员会成员孜孜以求的那个布鲁塞尔为中心的，高度大一统的世外桃源。


Council President Donald Tusk has been especially adamant on this point, criticizing “naive Euro-enthusiastic visions” and calling for a more modest Europe that promises less and delivers more.	欧盟理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克（Donald Tusk）在这一点上尤其坚决，批评那些人脑子里都是一副“天真的大欧洲愿景”，并呼吁一个更温和的少说话多办事的欧洲。


Tusk reiterated this position just before the recent informal European Council summit in Bratislava – the first not to include the United Kingdom – declaring that “giving new powers to European institutions is not the desired recipe.”	图斯克还在最近一次于布拉迪斯拉发召开的非正式欧洲理事会峰会上重申了这一立场——此次峰会也是首次不包括英国的一届——指出“赋予欧盟机构新的权力并不是合理的药方”。


Merkel, for her part, spent the summer preparing a member-state-led approach to the Brexit negotiations and Europe’s future.	而默克尔则花了整个夏天去准备以一个成员国主导的方式来展开英国脱欧谈判并决定欧洲的未来走向。


The discussion and outcome of the Bratislava summit underscored these efforts.	在布拉迪斯拉发峰会上的议题和结论正是体现了这些努力。


As for the Commission, its only real action in recent months was to appoint Michel Barnier in July as its chief representative in the Brexit negotiations.	委员会在最近几个月的唯一实际行动就是在七月任命米歇尔·巴尼耶（Michel Barnier）为英国脱欧谈判首席代表。


With the Council taking command of that process, it is far from clear what Barnier will actually do.	但因为主导这一进程的是理事会，也就很难判断巴尼耶究竟会怎么做。


In fact, with member states’ domestic politics playing a more important role than the European Council in driving whatever EU policy momentum exists, even an intergovernmental EU may be too much to hope for.	事实上，随着成员国的国内政治在驾驭欧盟现行政策动向方面扮演了比欧洲理事会更重要的角色，即便实现一个跨政府形式的欧盟都比较渺茫。


Consider Germany, where the dreadful performance of Merkel’s Christian Democrats in a string of regional elections, including in her home state of Mecklenberg-West Pomerania, has caused many to question the country’s trajectory.	以德国为例，随着默克尔的基督教民主党在地方选举——包括在其老家梅克伦堡 - 西波莫尼亚——大败，许多人开始质疑该国的走向。


Now, the wait is on for next year’s federal election, which may send the country – and its approach to EU leadership – in a very different direction.	目前大家都在等待明年的联邦大选，因为可能会将这个国家——及其领导欧盟的方式——导向一个截然不同的方向。


Uncertainty is also coming from other directions: Italy will hold a constitutional referendum by the end of this year, and France and the Netherlands will hold elections next year.	不确定性还来自其他方向：意大利将在今年年底举行宪法公投，而法国和荷兰都将在明年举行选举。


None of this is to say that supranationalism is a thing of the past.	这一切并不是说超国家主义已经过时了。


But it is likely that parochial interests will become even more dominant, at least until major elections are complete.	但这很可能意味着至少在各主要国家选举完成之前，各方的狭隘利益将会是主导。


An opening for a European approach may follow, but only if the current torpor does not lead to institutional atrophy.	一个欧洲策略的新篇章可能会随之开启，但前提是当前的僵持状态不会导致机构的萎缩。


Earning the public’s trust is crucial.	赢得公众的信任也相当关键。


In the past, the EU has forged ahead, as if the public approved. It does not.	过去欧盟一路高歌猛进，似乎已经得到了公众的认可，但事实上却并非如此。


As Hubert Vedrine, a former French foreign minister, recently estimated that only 15-20% of Europeans are Europhiles, another 15-20% oppose the EU outright, and the remaining 60% are “euro-allergic.” It is a rough but fair portrait.	法国前外长于贝尔·韦德里纳（Hubert Vedrine）最近估算说只有15~20％的欧洲人是亲欧派，还有15~20％的人一贯反对欧盟，剩下的60％是“欧元过敏症患者”——这一描述虽然粗略，但还算公允。


Put simply, for much of the public, EU institutions lack legitimacy.	简而言之，对大部分民众来说欧盟机构缺乏合法性。


The reasons are well known: poor communication, a democratic deficit, finger pointing between member states and the Commission, a flawed institutional architecture.	其原因是众所周知的：沟通不畅，缺乏民主，成员国和委员会之间互相扯皮，制度架构有缺陷。


Juncker and Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, can speak about méthode communautaire until they are blue in the face; it is not happening in the foreseeable future.	容克和欧洲议会主席马丁·舒尔茨（Martin Schulz）可以大谈共同体方略（méthode communautaire）； 只是在可预见的将来这都不可能发生罢了。


The result is clear: in the struggle over how Europe will develop, the EU institutions lack the authority or support to put up much of a fight – or even fully enter the ring.	其结果是显而易见的：在关于欧洲将如何发展的斗争中，欧盟机构缺乏足够的权威或支持去投身大多数争论——甚至无法完全介入讨论。


But this moment of national navel-gazing among the member states may actually present an important opportunity for EU institutions to work on closing the legitimacy gap.	不过趁各成员国都盯着本国利益不放的时候，或许欧盟机构也能得到一个弥合合法性差距的宝贵机会。


This means resisting the urge to wax poetic about future actions that never actually materialize, or to roll out impressive-looking programs with few real-world effects.	这意味着遏制住一些冲动：试图美化那些用于不会真正兑现的未来行为，或推出一些令人印象深刻但缺乏现实效果的前瞻性计划。


It means, instead, completing key initiatives, most urgently the banking union; improving accountability; and ensuring that the public understands what the EU institutions are doing.	要成功完成一系列关键举措——最迫切的莫过于建立银行联盟； 改进问责制；


And it means staying out of political conflicts, which neither the European Commission nor the European Parliament are in any position to win.	并确保公众理解欧盟机构在做什么。 这也意味着避免涉入政治冲突，因为无论欧盟委员会还是欧洲议会都不会有任何取胜的资本。


If this approach seems cautious, that is because it is.	如果这种做法似乎过度谨慎，那是因为它本应如此。


Now is the time not for risky shortcuts, but for meticulous, well-planned, incremental measures that gradually and consistently earn the public’s trust.	如今不是进行高风险弯道超车的时候，而是要用一丝不苟精心策划的渐进性措施去逐渐和持续获取公众的信任。


The relatively modest list of concrete priorities issued by Juncker and Commission First Vice-President Frans Timmermans is a good start.	而由容克和欧盟委员会第一副主席弗兰斯·蒂摩曼斯（Frans Timmermans）制定的那份相对温和的具体优先事项列表则是一个良好的开端。


Most people are not stupid.	大多数人都不傻。


They can generally tell when they are being strung along, and they are tired of empty rhetoric and half-baked initiatives.	他们能大体知道何时遭到了愚弄，也厌倦了空话和半桶水的提案。


Only if the EU institutions deliver genuine action, in a credible and transparent manner, can they ensure that the current inter-governmentalism is just a phase and that the future of Europe is Europe.	只有当欧盟机构以可信和透明的方式做出真正的行动之后，它们才能保证当前跨政府主义只是阶段性的做法，而欧洲的未来将是统一的欧洲。


The End of Iran’s Islamic Revolution	伊朗伊斯兰革命的结束


STONY BROOK – The nuclear deal reached in July by Iran and its international interlocutors marks an obvious turning point in the Islamic Republic’s relations with the outside world, particularly with the United States.	石溪—7月，伊朗与其国际谈判对手达成了核协议，该协议标志着伊斯兰共和国与外部世界（尤其是美国）关系的一个显而易见的转折点。


But why has it taken so much longer for the US to come to terms with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s revolution in Iran than it did with Mao Zedong’s revolution in China?	但美国为何花了如此之长的时间才与霍梅尼的伊朗革命达成和解，而不像毛泽东的中国革命那样迅速达成和解？


Of course, one explanation for the prolonged bilateral freeze is the warped discourse of what George W. Bush foolishly called the “global war on terror,” in which Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, was cast as part of an international “axis of evil.”	当然，美伊双边关系长期冻结的一个解释是小布什愚蠢地提出了“全球反恐战争”，在这场战争中，伊朗与伊拉克和朝鲜一样被列入国际“邪恶轴心”。


As a result, US officials viewed any move toward diplomatic normalization as unacceptable “appeasement.”	结果，美国官员将任何外交正常化的举动都视为不可接受的“绥靖”。


But the Bush administration’s moralistic foreign policy merely reinforced America’s stance since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.	但小布什政府的道学式外交政策只是强化了美国自1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命以来的立场。


And it is in the history and course of that revolution that a fuller and more compelling explanation of recent events is to be found.	而对最近的进展的更全面也更令人信服的解释要从历史和革命进程中去寻找。


Forget the French Revolution as a model: the so-called Thermidorian Reaction, when moderates ended Robespierre’s Reign of Terror, was an exception to the pattern of modern revolutions.	忘却作为榜样的法国革命吧：在谓的热月政变中，温和派结束了罗伯斯庇尔的恐怖统治，但这只是现代革命模式的一个例外。


The typical pattern during our living memory is that the hardliners come after the moderates.	在我们的鲜活记忆中，典型的革命模式是，强硬派紧跟温和派而来。


In the Soviet Union, for example, it was hardliners after World War II who strove to export Marxist-Leninist revolution, condemning the world to decades of cold war.	比如，在苏联，二战后强硬派大力输出马克思列宁主义革命，将世界拖入了为期几十年的冷战。


So, too, with Iran.	伊朗亦然。


After Khomeini’s death in 1989, the pragmatic Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani became President, followed by the reform-minded Mohammad Khatami.	1989年霍梅尼死后，务实派拉夫桑贾尼（Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani）成为总统，然后是改革派哈塔米（Mohammad Khatami）。


But the hardliners struck back.	但强硬派发动了逆袭。


When Khatami’s reform program was ineffective, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an obscure officer of the Basij militia, was elected Mayor of Tehran in 2003 (after just 12% of the city’s voters turned out), and then defeated Rafsanjani in 2005 to become President.	哈塔米的改革计划没有收到成效，默默无名的巴斯杰（Basij）军官内贾德（Mahmoud Ahmadinejad）趁机在2003年当选德黑兰市长（只有12%的德黑兰市民参与了投票），接着在2005年击败拉夫桑贾尼成为伊朗总统。


Ahmadinejad, a fanatical devotee of Khomeini, the revolution’s first imam, was a reminder of the revolution’s populist inception.	内贾德是伊斯兰革命第一位伊玛目——霍梅尼的狂热信徒，他标志着伊斯兰革命的民粹主义开端。


To promote an aggressive nuclear policy was to vindicate Khomeini’s battle against America, “the Great Satan.”	推行激进的核计划便是证明霍梅尼抵抗“大恶魔”美国的斗争的正确性。


Only when Iran’s voters lost patience with Ahmadinejad’s incompetence and elected Hassan Rouhani in 2013 could the Islamic Revolution be said to be over.	直到伊朗选民不堪忍受内贾德的无能并在2013年支持鲁哈尼成为总统，伊斯兰革命才可以说告一段落。


Could America have avoided the waste of the Ahmadinejad years?	美国可以避免浪费内贾德执政的这几年吗？


His predecessors had made serious efforts to improve relations with the US.	他的前任做出了巨大的努力改善与美国的关系。


Encouraged by the victory of the US-led coalition in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq (the Islamic Republic’s arch-enemy), in 1995 Rafsanjani sent very clear signals to the US of a willingness to restore diplomatic ties.	受美国领导的1991年海湾战争胜利（盟军的对手伊拉克正是伊斯兰共和国的死敌）的鼓舞，1995年拉夫桑贾尼向美国释放出明确信号，愿意重建外交关系。


The Clinton administration ignored Rafsanjani’s effort, and the following year the US Congress unanimously passed the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act.	克林顿政府忽视了拉夫桑贾尼的信号，第二年，美国国会一致通过了伊朗和利比亚制裁法。


Admittedly, Bill Clinton and his advisers had plenty of reasons for skepticism.	平心而论，克林顿及其顾问有充分的理由持怀疑态度。


Rafsanjani was at least partly hostage to hardline opponents keen to sabotage his foreign-policy initiatives with precisely timed acts of terror in France, Germany, and Argentina.	拉夫桑贾尼至少从某种程度上说是热衷于破坏其外交政策方针强硬派反对者的人质，后者不失时机地在法国、德国和阿根廷从事恐怖活动。


But Clinton and his secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, took seriously the proposal by Khatami, Rafsanjani’s successor, at the UN General Assembly in 2000 for a “dialogue of civilizations” to open what he called “a crack in the wall of mistrust” between Iran and the US.	但克林顿及其国务卿奥尔布赖特（Madeleine Albright）对于拉夫桑贾尼的继任者哈塔米的提议是认真的，在2000年的联合国大会上，他们提出了通过“文明的对话”在克林顿所谓的伊朗和美国之间的“不信任之墙上凿出一条缝”。


Sadly, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, forced his president and foreign minister to avoid the planned handshakes with their American counterparts.	悲哀的是，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊强迫伊朗总统和外交部长回避计划中的与美国总统和国务卿的握手。


Worse was to follow for those hoping for better US-Iran relations.	对希望美伊关系改善的人来说，更坏的消息还在后面。


First, there was Bush’s “axis of evil” speech in 2002.	首先是2002年小布什发表“邪恶轴心”演讲。


Then, in February 2005, just as the hardline Ahmadinejad was about to begin his first term as president, Bush formally rejected a nuclear deal that had been painstakingly negotiated by Rouhani (then Khamenei’s representative in Iran’s Supreme National Security Council) and signed in late 2004 by France, Germany, and Britain.	接着，2005年2月，也就是强硬派内贾德即将开始第一个总统任期前夕，小布什正式拒绝了鲁哈尼（时任哈塔米在伊朗最高国家安全委会中的代表）费尽千辛万苦谈判成功并在2004年底与法国、德国和英国签署的核协议。


As Iran scanned the strategic horizon, it seemed obvious that the US had invaded Iraq because Saddam did not have any weapons of mass destruction.	当伊朗进行战略盘算时，美国入侵伊拉克显然是因为萨达姆没有任何大规模杀伤性武器。


This made Ahmadinejad’s insistence on Iran’s nuclear “rights” popular with the Iranian masses and the middle class alike.	这让内贾德坚持伊朗的核“权利”的做法得到了伊朗群众和中产阶级的支持。


Despite popular disenchantment with the Ahmadinejad era, that sentiment still prevails in Iran.	尽管伊朗人民已经从内贾德时代中警醒，但这一情绪在伊朗仍然十分普遍。


But the nuclear accord reached last month is the product of a different political context: President Barack Obama was eager to make a deal with Iran part of his legacy, and this time, Rouhani, as President, was able to negotiate with the full backing of Khamenei, with whom (unlike Khatami) he has worked closely.	但上个月所达成的核协议是不同的政治环境的产物：奥巴马总统急切地想与伊朗达成协议，并将此作为自己的政治遗产，同时，身为伊朗总统的鲁哈尼也得以在哈梅内伊的全力支持下参与谈判。 与哈塔米不同，鲁哈尼与哈梅内伊进行了紧密合作。


But there is a deeper reason for the success of the nuclear negotiations: Khomeini’s Islamic revolution of 1979 has finally ended – and Khamenei knows it.	但核谈判的成功还有一个更深层次的原因：1979年的霍梅尼伊斯兰革命终于结束了——并且哈梅内伊知道这一点。


He must also know that the export of Islamic revolution from Shia Iran has lost its allure, replaced in the Sunni world first by the global jihad of al-Qaeda and now by the so-called Islamic State and caliphate of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.	他还必须明白，什叶派伊朗所输出伊斯兰革命已经失去了吸引力，在逊尼派世界中，它首先被基地组织的全球圣战所取代，现在又被所谓的伊斯兰国和巴格达迪的哈里发所取代。


For Iran, what counts now is no longer ideology but national interest and realpolitik.	对伊朗来说，现在重要的不再是意识形态，而是国家利益和现实政治。


That is why it finds itself currently backing the opponents of revolutionary Islam: Bashar al-Assad against the Islamists in Syria and the Houthis against al-Qaeda in Yemen.	因此，如今它支持革命伊斯兰的反对者：在叙利亚与伊斯兰教徒对抗的巴沙尔·阿萨德以及在也门与基地组织对抗的胡塞叛军。


And it is why it finds itself not only signing a nuclear accord with the Great Satan but also tacitly cooperating with it against the Islamic State, their common enemy.	也是因此，它不但与大恶魔签订了核协议，还心照不宣地与它合作对抗共同的敌人伊斯兰国。


Now that the revolution is over, cooperation in other areas is likely to become equally appealing.	既然伊斯兰革命已经结束，其他领域的合作也许就会变得同样有吸引力。


Endorse the Nuclear Test Ban	批准核试禁令


STOCKHOLM/MEXICO CITY – Indonesia’s parliament has just taken a historic step, one that makes the planet safer from the threat of nuclear weapons.	发自斯德哥尔摩/墨西哥城——印尼国会刚刚迈出了历史性的一步，也是令我们这个星球更加远离核武器威胁的一步。


The importance of Indonesia’s decision to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty cannot be overstated. This is a golden opportunity for the remaining eight countries to endorse the CTBT, enabling it to come into legal effect.	印尼批准《全面禁止核试验条约》的意义如何形容都不过分，而这也是余下八个国家批准该条约并使之具备法律效力的黄金机会。


For the five decades following World War II, a nuclear test shook and irradiated the planet on average every nine days.	二战结束后这50年来平均每9天就有一次核试验震撼并辐射地球。


This era was ended in 1996, when the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly.	而这个时代终于在1996年联合国大会通过《全面禁止核试验条约》后走到了尽头。


But, for the CTBT to enter into force, all 44 states specified as holders of nuclear technology must ratify it. Until they do, the specter of nuclear testing will continue to haunt us.	但条约必须在附件中所列44个核技术持有国签署通过后才能生效，否则的话核试验的幽灵将依然萦绕在我们身边。


It is urgent that the CTBT take full legal effect around the world as soon as possible.	该条约尽快在全球范围内全面生效的紧迫性无需赘述。


A complete ban on all nuclear explosions would hamper the upgrading of existing nuclear arsenals and the development of new weapons, diminishing the capabilities of both current and potential nuclear-armed states.	一条全面禁止核爆的禁令将阻碍现有核武器库的升级以及新武器的研究开发，消灭现有以及潜在核武国家的核能力。


The CTBT reinforces both nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament, and is essential for global, regional, and national security.	条约还将推动核不扩散以及核裁军，并成为实现全球，地区和国家安全的必要因素。


We applaud the fact that all of the nuclear-capable countries in Europe and Latin America and many in other regions in the world have ratified the CTBT.	对欧洲、拉丁美洲全体国家以及其他地区部分国家批准条约的行动我们表示欢迎。


With Indonesia’s ratification, the number of countries that have yet to do so has decreased to eight: China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, and the United States.	随着印尼批准条约，余下未批准国家只剩下8个：中国、埃及、印度、伊朗、以色列、巴基斯坦，朝鲜和美国。


These countries have a responsibility to make the legal ban on nuclear testing a reality.	这些国家有责任把这个法定禁令变成现实。


We strongly urge them to reconsider the CTBT; this important instrument for peace and security will bring us a step closer to a world without the threat of nuclear weapons.	我们强烈敦促这些国家重新考虑该条约； 这是一个实现和平和安全的重要工具，能使我们向一个没有核武器威胁的世界进一步靠拢。


The CTBT has already had a dramatic impact, despite not yet being in force.	虽然尚未生效，但《全面禁止核试验条约》已经产生了令人瞩目的影响。


Since its adoption, nuclear testing has virtually stopped, and all 182 signatory states have abstained from testing nuclear explosives.	在联合国大会通过条约后核试验实际上已经销声匿迹，所有182个签约国也停止了核爆实验。


The three countries that have failed to ratify the CTBT and have tested such devices – India, Pakistan, and North Korea – have faced universal condemnation from the UN Security Council, and UN sanctions.	而那3个未签署该条约并实施了核试验的国家——印度，巴基斯坦和朝鲜——则遭到了来自联合国安理会的国际谴责以及相关制裁。


A key measure of the viability of any arms-control treaty is how effectively it can be verified.	测试所有武器控制条约可行性的一个关键方法就是测试其核查效率。


In this respect, the international community has a formidable instrument at its disposal.	而在这方面国际社会已经拥有了一个强大的工具。


The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is creating a verification regime that has repeatedly proven its reliability in detecting even small underground nuclear tests.	全面禁止核试验条约组织筹备委员会正在建立一个监察体系，而该体系已经一再证明即便是小型地下核试验也无法逃过其耳目。


In addition to its verification mandate, the CTBT monitoring system also helps to mitigate disasters.	除了其核查授权之外，《全面禁止核试验条约》的监察系统还能用来减轻核灾难的影响。


During the tragic catastrophe in Japan last March, CTBTO data helped local authorities to issue timely alerts. The CTBTO continued to help by monitoring the global dispersion of radioactivity from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant.	在今年3月日本发生的悲剧性灾难当中，条约筹备委员提供的数据帮助地方当局及时发布警告，同时也继续通过检测福岛核电站核辐射全球扩散范围的方式予以协助。


Mexico and Sweden are longstanding supporters of the CTBT.	墨西哥和瑞典一直以来都是条约的支持者。


Over the coming two years, our countries will jointly oversee the process of bringing the CTBT into force.	在未来两年内，两国将携手监督实现条约生效的全过程。


We pledge to spare no effort to advance this aim. We vow to:	我们宣誓将不遗余力地推进这一目标，我们郑重宣告：


·         Call upon political leaders in the states that have not yet ratified the CTBT to act without delay and take concrete steps to this end;	·         拜访并号召未批准国领导人尽快采取切实行动实现这一目标���


·         Encourage civil-society groups – NGOs, media, universities, and youth organizations – in these countries to urge their decision-makers to ratify the CTBT;	·         鼓励这些国家的公民社会团体——非政府组织、媒体，大学以及青年组织——去敦促其决策者批准条约。


·         Use national, regional, and international meetings and conferences to promote the CTBT at every level of decision-making;	·         借助各决策层次的国家，地区以及国际性会晤和会议来推动条约；


·         Complete the CTBTO’s verification regime, which all states should support as a powerful deterrent to any would-be nuclear testers.	·         完善全面禁止核试验条约组织筹备委员会的监察体系，并争取所有国家的支持，使之成为一个阻止潜在核试验行为的有力手段。


It is time to end this destructive experiment and close the door on nuclear testing once and for all.	结束这一破坏性试验并永远关闭核试验之门的时候已经来到。


We appeal to decision-makers in the eight states that have not yet ratified the CTBT to move forward.	我们呼吁8个未批准国的决策者能向前迈进。 印尼已经树立了榜样；


Indonesia has set an example; now the spotlight is on you.	如今焦点则聚集到了你们身上。


With the right structural reforms, it may even be able to achieve a sustained period of Chinese-style double-digit economic growth.	有了合理的结构性改革，它甚至可以在一段时期内持续实现中国式的两位数经济增长��


Energizing Europe	给欧洲注入活力


In France’s pre-presidential electoral campaign, European affairs are mentioned or whispered, but almost never debated.	在法国总统选举前的竞选之中，欧洲事务被提及或被讨论过，但是几乎从来没有辩论过。


France is mostly concerned with its own problems, particularly the supposed malfunctioning of its political class and the apparent laziness of the French public, which is blamed for weak economic growth, especially when compared to the United States.	法国大体上只是关心自己的问题，特别是被认为的其政治阶层的运转不良以及法国公众明显的懒惰。 人们指责后者是脆弱的经济增长的根源，特别是与美国相比。


France needs a debate on European Union affairs, but only as long as it does not degenerate – as is common in Europe – into self-flagellation.	法国需要有关欧洲事务的辩论，但条件是这一辩论不要沦为自我鞭挞。 而这正是欧洲常有的事情。


But the germ of such a debate exists, and it sounds very different from that which dominated the failed constitutional referendum campaign in France two years ago.	但是这一辩论的潜质依旧存在，而且，它与两年前主导法国有关欧盟宪法全民公决的竞选大相径庭。


The operation of European institutions – the European Central Bank, the European Commission, and the Stability Pact – is facing severe criticism, but not in the name of a nostalgia for national sovereignty.	欧盟机制的运作，包括欧洲央行、欧盟委员会以及稳定和增长公约等面临严重的批评，但是这些批评并非是以对于国家主权的怀旧的名义进行的。


Europe is not being rejected; instead, the criticism has been in the spirit of improving European institutions in the name of the common good.	人们并未拒绝欧洲； 实际上，人们只是以共同利益的名义、以改善欧盟机制的精神提出批评。


Both of the major candidates for the French presidency, Ségolène Royal and Nicholas Sarkozy, have called for the creation of an economic government for the euro zone.	法国总统大选的两个主要候选人罗雅尔女士和萨尔科奇都呼吁建立欧元区的主管经济的政府。


Of course, such a “government” already exists in the form of the European Central Bank.	当然，这样的一个“政府”已经以欧洲央行的形式存在了。


But what is needed is an institutional framework that would establish greater political responsibility concerning the primary economic objectives that Europe should pursue – full employment and growth – and that would at least partly close the democratic deficit implied by the ECB’s takeover of monetary policy from euro-zone states.	但是，人们需要的是一个机制框架，这一框架将会为欧洲所应追求的主要经济目标，即全面就业和增长确立更大的政治责任，并且至少部分地解决由于欧洲央行从欧元区国家中接管货币政策而造成的民主赤字。


A moment of seeming political disunity, such as exists today, may not seem the right one to initiate such a project.	当前存在着表面上的政治不团结，因此现在可能并不是开始这一工程的正确时机。


But, historically, Europe has succeeded when, at moments of danger, it has initiated irreversible processes that outweigh any other consideration.	但是从历史上看，欧洲曾经在危险的时候排除任何其他考虑，而成功地开创了不可逆转的进程。


Europe’s founding fathers understood this when they hatched the idea of creating the European Coal and Steel Community: encouraging old enemies to pool some of the most powerful tools of war under the pretext of advancing their economic interests was a strategy of rare intelligence.	欧盟的创始人们在提出创立欧洲煤钢共同体时正是这样做的，那就是以促进经济利益的借口鼓励昔日的仇人把一些战争中最强有力的用品来联合经营真是一个绝妙的战略。


We now live in a similar moment of uncertainty and danger, and this time, too, there is a project, both economic and political, that can unite the Union: energy independence, a key factor in national sovereignty.	现在我们面临着类似的不确定性和危险，而同样地，这一次有一个既在经济上同时又在政治上把整个联盟联合起来的计划，那就是国家主权的一个重要因素即能源独立自主。


Today, there is nothing on a pan-European scale that guarantees the responsibility of each member state to ensure the security of its future supplies.	今天，我们并不拥有一个泛欧洲的计划能保证每个成员国能确保其未来能源供应的安全的责任。


The European Commission is weary of trying to build a single energy market, which has required it to persuade governments that they must dismantle their existing monopoly operators – a prerequisite to competition.	欧盟委员会对于建立一个单一的能源市场的企图表现得很谨慎，因为它需要劝说各国政府拆解它们业已存在的垄断经营者，而这是竞争的前提。


Although member states appear to have resigned themselves to this, they fervently resist other European firms taking control of their “national champion” companies.	尽管各个成员国似乎对此表示了认可，但是它们却坚决抵制其他欧洲公司控制它们的国有霸主公司。


To be sure, governments cannot escape their responsibilities to their citizens, and only the most naïve technocrat believes that the market alone can ensure energy independence.	实际上，各国政府无法回避它们对其公民的责任，而只有最天真的专家治国论者才会相信仅仅依靠市场就能保证能源的独立。


At the same time, however, purely bilateral negotiations between individual EU members and oil- and gas-producing countries weakens the member states’ bargaining power, as well as undermining Europe’s geopolitical weight in world affairs.	与此同时，各个欧盟成员国分别与石油和天然气的生产国之间进行的双边谈判降低了成员国讨价还价的能力，同时也削弱了欧洲在世界事务中的地缘政治力量。


Yet, fortunately, there is no need for resignation.	然而，幸运的是，我们并不需要听天由命。


There is an obvious solution, similar to the Coal and Steel Community implemented by our founding fathers: a European energy, environment, and research community (E3RC).	存在一个与我们的创始人们建立煤铁共同体同样明显的解决方案，即一个欧洲能源、环境和研究共同体（E3RC）。


It is a mistake to believe that ecological concerns can be addressed only through negative growth.	那种认为关注生态环境只会导致经济负增长的看法是完全错误的。


In fact, the opposite is true.	事实上，情况恰恰相反。


New energy and environmental technologies will undoubtedly drive growth in the future.	新的能源和环境技术未来无疑会推动经济的增长。


But only if research is doubled to create new energy-efficient technologies will we eventually consume less energy overall and more energy in an environmentally friendly way.	但是我们只有下大力气加大研究力度以创造新的能效技术，我们最终才能做到消耗的能源总量大大减少，并且能源消耗更多地是以不影响环境的方式来进行的。


The ecological disasters that today’s economic activity has already produced and the catastrophic potential of those to come have at last brought home the fact that energy policy and environmental protection cannot be separated.	今天的经济活动所已经制造出的生态灾难以及可能将会带来的灾难性后果最终使人们认识到能源政策和环境保护必须被放在一起进行考虑。


As it is, the E3RC would pursue two directly related objectives: European energy independence, which would be helped by new energy and environmental technologies, and Europe’s increased bargaining power in global markets.	目前来看，欧洲能源、环境和研究共同体有两个直接相关的目标可以追求，即欧洲能源的独立自主。 这依赖于新的能源和环境技术，和加强欧洲在全球市场上讨价还价的能力。


Its creation would also send out a new message to the European public: competition alone is not the only thing on Europe’s horizon.	它的建立同时也可以向欧洲民众传递一个新的信息，即欧洲的大地上所存在的并不仅仅竞争。


Above all, the EU requires cooperation.	最为主要的是，欧洲需要合作。


Energy Independence in an Interdependent World	互助世界中的能源独立


CAMBRIDGE – When President Richard Nixon proclaimed in the early 1970’s that he wanted to secure national energy independence, the United States imported a quarter of its oil.	美国剑桥—20世纪70年代初，在尼克松总统表示希望能够保证国家能源独立的时候，美国有四分之一的原油需要进口。


By the decade’s end, after an Arab oil embargo and the Iranian Revolution, domestic production was in decline, Americans were importing half their petroleum needs at 15 times the price, and it was widely believed that the country was running out of natural gas.	20世纪70年代末，在经历了阿拉伯石油禁运和伊朗革命以及国内石油产量的下跌后，美国原油进口比例上升到了50%，而油价上涨了15倍。 当是时，人们相信美国的天然气很快就要开采殆尽了。


Energy shocks contributed to a lethal combination of stagnant economic growth and inflation, and every US president since Nixon likewise has proclaimed energy independence as a goal.	能源冲击助长了经济增长停滞和通货膨胀的致命组合，自尼克松以来，每一任美国总统都会把能源独立作为目标。


But few people took those promises seriously.	但没人把这个目标当回事。


Today, energy experts no longer scoff.	如今，能源专家再也笑不出来了。


By the end of this decade, according to the US Energy Information Administration, nearly half of the crude oil that America consumes will be produced at home, while 82% will come from the US side of the Atlantic.	根据美国能源信息局（US Energy Information Administration）的说法，到2020年，美国所消费的原油中将有近一半产自国内，其中又有82%来自大西洋沿岸。


Philip Verleger, a respected energy analyst, argues that, by 2023, the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s “Project Independence,” the US will be energy independent in the sense that it will export more energy than it imports.	著名能源分析师维尔莱格（Philip Verleger）指出，到2023年，即尼克松提出“独立计划”50周年之际，美国将实现能源独立——其能源出口将超过进口。


Verleger argues that energy independence “could make this the New American Century by creating an economic environment where the United States enjoys access to energy supplies at much lower cost than other parts of the world.”	维尔莱格认为，能源独立“可能将世界带入新美国世纪（New American Century），形成一个美国能够以比世界其他地方低得多的成本获得能源的经济环境”。


Already, Europeans and Asians pay 4-6 times more for their natural gas than Americans do.	如今，欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格已经比美国高出了4—6倍。


What happened?	到底发生了什么？


The technology of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, by which shale and other tight rock formations at great depths are bombarded with water and chemicals, has released major new supplies of both natural gas and oil.	水平钻井和水压致裂技术——对页岩和其他深层低渗透岩石施以水轰和化学物质轰击——释放了大量新的天然气和原油供给。


America’s shale-gas industry grew by 45% annually from 2005 to 2010, and the share of shale gas in America’s overall gas production grew from 4% to 24%.	2005—2010年间，美国页岩气产业年增长率高达45%，页岩气占美国天然气总产量的比重从4%上升到了24%。


The US is estimated to have enough gas to sustain its current rate of production for more than a century.	据估计，美国的天然气足够以当前产量开采一百年。


While many other countries also have considerable shale-gas potential, problems abound, including water scarcity in China, investment security in Argentina, and environmental restrictions in several European countries.	其他国家也拥有相当可观的页岩气储量，但问题重重，比如中国存在水资源短缺问题，阿根廷存在投资安全性问题，欧洲国家存在环境约束问题，等等。


The American economy will benefit in myriad ways from its change in energy supply.	美国经济将因能源供给的变化而获得数不尽的好处。


Hundreds of thousands of jobs are already being created, some in remote, previously stagnating regions.	现在已经形成了数十万个工作岗位，其中一些是在原本萧条的边远地区。


This additional economic activity will boost overall GDP growth, yielding significant new fiscal revenues.	由此产生的经济活动的增加将提振总体GDP增长，产生大量新财政收入。


In addition, the lower energy-import bill will cause America’s trade deficit to narrow and its balance-of-payments position to improve.	此外，能源进口支出下降将使美国贸易赤字减少，国际收支平衡状况改善。


Some US industries, such as chemicals and plastics, will gain a significant comparative advantage in production costs.	一些行业（如化工和塑料行业）将在生产成本方面获得巨大的比较优势。


Indeed, the International Energy Agency estimates that the additional precautions needed to ensure shale-gas wells’ environmental safety – including careful attention to seismic conditions, properly sealed shafts, and appropriate waste-water management – add only about 7% to the cost.	事实上，据国际能源署估计，确保页岩气井的环境安全性所需要的附加预防措施——包括密切关注地震条件、合适的密封通风井以及合理的废水管理等——只会带来7%的额外成本。


With respect to climate change, however, the effects of greater reliance on shale gas are mixed.	不过，从气候变化角度看，更依赖页岩气的结果很不好说。


Because natural-gas combustion produces fewer greenhouse gases than other hydrocarbons, such as coal or oil, it can be a bridge to a less carbon-intensive future.	天然气燃烧所产生的温室气体要小于煤和石油等化石燃料，因此页岩气称得上通往减少碳密集程度的捷径。


But the low price of gas will impede the development of renewable energy sources unless accompanied by subsidies or carbon taxes.	但是低气价会妨碍新能源资源的开发，除非后者能得到补贴或碳税的支持。


At this stage, one can only speculate about the geopolitical effects.	现阶段，我们只能预测地缘政治影响。


Clearly, the strengthening of the US economy would enhance American economic power – a scenario that runs counter to the current fashion of portraying the US as being in decline.	显然，美国经济的坚挺将强化美国的经济实力——这与当前流行的美国衰落论背道而驰。


But one should not jump to conclusions.	但下结论不能操之过急。


A balance of energy imports and exports is only a first approximation of independence.	能源进出口的平衡只是通往能源独立的第一步。


As I argue in my book The Future of Power, global interdependence involves both sensitivity and vulnerability.	我在近著《实力的未来》（The Future of Power）中指出，全球互助性既具有敏感性，也具有脆弱性。


The US may be less vulnerable in the long run if it imports less energy, but oil is a fungible commodity, and the US economy will remain sensitive to shocks from sudden changes in world prices.	如果美国能源进口量有所减少，那么从长期看它的脆弱性将会减小，但石油是一种可替代商品，而美国经济仍然对世界油价的突然变化所带来的冲击非常敏感。


In other words, a revolution in Saudi Arabia or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could still inflict damage on the US and its allies.	换句话说，沙特革命或是封锁霍尔木兹海峡之类的事件仍旧可能对美国及其盟友造成严重伤害。


So, even if America had no other interests in the Middle East, such as Israel or nuclear non-proliferation, a balance of energy imports and exports would be unlikely to free the US from military expenditures – which some experts estimate run to $50 billion per year – to protect oil routes in the region.	因此，即使美国在中东没有其他利益（比如以色列或核不扩散），能源进出口平衡也不会让美国从保护该地区石油运输线的军费开支（一些专家估计高达每年500亿美元）中解脱出来。


At the same time, America’s bargaining position in world politics should be enhanced.	与此同时，美国在国际政治上的讨价还价地位应能得到优化。


Power arises from asymmetries in interdependence.	实力来自不对称的互助性。


You and I may depend on each other, but if I depend on you less than you do on me, my bargaining power is increased.	你我可以相互依赖，但如果你需要我甚于我需要你，那么我的讨价还价实力就会见涨。


For decades, the US and Saudi Arabia have had a balance of asymmetries in which we depended on them as the swing producer of oil, and they depended on us for ultimate military security. Now the bargains will be struck on somewhat better terms from America’s point of view.	几十年来，美国和沙特存在一种不对称的平衡，我们依赖他们作为见机行事的石油生产者，而他们依赖我们作为最终军事安全力量。


Likewise, Russia has enjoyed leverage over Europe and its small neighbors through its control of natural gas supplies and pipelines.	类似地，俄罗斯控制着天然气供给和管线，从而扼住了欧洲及其小国邻邦的咽喉。


As North America becomes self-sufficient in gas, more from various other regions will be freed up to provide alternative sources for Europe, thereby diminishing Russia’s leverage.	随着北美在天然气上成为自给自足地区，其他众多地区将能腾出手来为欧洲提供替代资源，从而削弱俄罗斯的优势。


In East Asia, which has become the focus of US foreign policy, China will find itself increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern oil.	在东亚——美国外交政策的新焦点——中国将日渐依赖中东的石油。


American efforts to persuade China to play a greater role in regional security arrangements may be strengthened, and China’s awareness of the vulnerability of its supply routes to US naval disruption in the unlikely event of conflict could also have a subtle effect on each side’s bargaining power.	美国说服中国逐渐参与地区安全安排的努力将会更受重视，而中国将意识到其能源供给线在发生冲突的不可能事件时将受到美国海军的干扰，这两个方面将对双方讨价还价实力形成微妙影响。


A balance of energy imports and exports does not produce pure independence, but it does alter the power relations involved in energy interdependence.	能源进出口平衡并不会产生纯粹的依赖性，但确实会改变能源互助所带来的实力对比。


Nixon got that right.	在这一点上，尼克松是对的。


Energy Markets or Energy Governance?	能源市场还是能源治理？


MADRID – This month, the International Energy Agency will publish its annual report, the internationally definitive World Energy Outlook, which will confirm that we are not on the right track to reduce global warming.	马德里——本月，国际能源署将发布年度报告，即权威的《世界能源展望》，这份报告将显示，我们并没有走在缓解全球变暖的正途上。


If the current trend in energy production continues, the earth’s average temperature will be more than 2ºC higher in 2100 than it was in 1990, irreversibly harming the planet and conditions for human life.	如果能源生产的当前趋势继续下去，那么，到2100年，地球平均温度将比1900年提高2℃，对地球和人类生存环境造成不可逆的伤害。


Other, more immediate crises are occupying the world’s attention almost completely, distracting governments and citizens alike from the energy challenges that are still before us.	眼下，其他更为紧迫的危机正在让世界疲于奔命，政府和人民的注意力并不在仍然困扰着我们的能源挑战上。


In the United States, there has been no energy debate at the federal level for a long time; the European Union is in the eye of a financial hurricane; and the emerging countries want to maintain rapid economic growth in order to lift millions out of poverty.	在美国，联邦级别的讨论中不见能源问题踪影已经有很长一段时间了； 欧盟正在金融飓风中苦苦挣扎；


In this context, the next meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), set for the end of November in Durban, South Africa, is passing totally unnoticed.	而新兴国家希望保持快速经济增长从而将数百万人带出贫困状态。 在这样的环境下，将于11月在南非德班举行的新一届联合国气候变化框架会议（UNFCCC）几乎没有受到任何关注。


But energy is fundamental for humanity, not only because of its potentially negative externalities, but also given its economic relevance: Western countries spend 8-10% of their GDP on energy, and developing countries spend double or triple that amount.	但能源乃是人类生存的基本问题，这不仅是因为它具有潜在的负外部性，也因为它具有经济上的关联性：西方国家的GDP中有8—10%花在了能源上，而发展中国家的这一比重是发达国家的两倍甚至三倍。


For this reason, we need a system to govern energy.	因此，我们需要一个能源治理体系。


Owing mainly to its environmentally negative externalities, an unregulated energy market is not a useful governing mechanism, because it is unable to internalize the environmental costs.	不受管制的能源市场绝非有用的治理机制，这主要是因为能源具有环境负外部性，而不受管制的能源市场无法将环境成本内部化。


It has been calculated that the most contaminating energy sources would have to pay a 70% tax to reflect their negative externalities.	据测算，污染性最大的能源应该被课以70%的税收，以反映其负外部性。


A substantial lack of information in this field is another reason why the free market doesn’t work.	这方面信息的严重不足是自由市场起不了作用的另一个原因。


Often, as with the properties of a gas reserve, for example, information is technically difficult to obtain.	通常而言，像天然气储量这样的信息在技术上是很难获得的。


In addition, governments consider natural resources to be strategic and don’t release information about them.	此外，政府会认为自然资源具有战略重要性，因此不会披露这方面的信息。


Finally, time frames related to energy are usually long: centuries for environmental effects or decades for investments to pay off.	最后，与能源有关的时间框架通常非常长：环境效应需要几个世纪才能显现，投资需要好几十年才能收回。


Thus, energy must be governed through a system of cooperation and regulation.	因此，能源必须通过一个合作和监管体系才能得到治理。


That will be complicated, of course.	当然，这是非常复杂的事情。


Managing energy requires taking into account technical, political, and economic dimensions simultaneously.	管理能源同时要求考虑��术、政治、经济等诸多方面的问题。


Energy exploration and production requires many different disciplines and technologies – eolic (wind), photovoltaic, nuclear, coal, etc.	能源勘探和生产要求众多学科和技术基础，比如风力、光伏、核能、煤炭等。


Something similar exists in the political sphere, where industrial and economic sectors are organized but divided.	政治问题也是如此，产业和经济部门虽然有组织，但却是各自为政。


And the need for international coordination poses an additional difficulty.	而国际合作的需要则让这个问题难上加难。


The energy sector exemplifies the inadequacy of our multilateral institutions.	能源问题是我们缺少多边机构的明证。


Energy policy is national, but the sector’s externalities are global.	能源政策在国家层面制定，但能源部门的外部性却由全球共同承担。


A radioactive leak, the rupture of an undersea oil well and, above all, CO2 emissions do not threaten just one country.	核泄漏、海底油井泄露以及（最重要的）二氧化碳排放所威胁到的绝非一个国家。


On the other hand, energy’s benefits adhere to specific agents, be they consumers, producers, or sellers.	另一方面，能源带来的好处却是定向的，获得者只有能源消费者、生产者和出售者。


This imbalance creates a clear incentive for free riders: they benefit, while the rest of us pay.	这一失衡造成了显而易见的免费搭车激励：他们获得好处，而我们其他人承担成本。


Moreover, global governance is necessary because energy supply and demand around the world are disconnected.	此外，全球治理之所以有必要，是因为世界能源供求并不连贯。


Few countries have a neutral energy balance.	鲜有国家存在中性的能源平衡。


Oil, the world’s main source of energy, is indicative in this regard.	这一点可以用世界主要能源——石油来说明。


The Middle East has a 266% commercial surplus of oil, and the US a 65% deficit.	中东在石油上有着266%的商业盈余，而美国则有65%的赤字。


This geographical imbalance requires an ordered system of trade, clear regulations, and a well-structured global market.	这一地缘性的失衡要求一个有序的交易体系、明晰的监管以及结构合理的全球市场。


Today, however, opaque bilateral agreements abound, and very different environmental requirements and contradictory subsidies coexist.	但是，当今世界充斥着不透明的双边协定，截然不同的环境要求和相互矛盾的补贴同时存在。


As a result, our global energy institutions are woefully inadequate.	结果，我们严重缺乏全球能源机构。


The International Energy Agency admits only OECD countries, which excludes China, the largest energy consumer.	国际能源署只承认经合组织国家（其中不包括中国）为主要能源消费国。


The intergovernmental Energy Charter Treaty, which obliges signatories to apply impartial market rules to energy products and services, has not been signed by the US, the world’s second-largest energy consumer, or ratified by Russia, the world’s largest oil producer.	政府间的能源宪章条约（Energy Charter Treaty）规定，签署国必须实施无差异的能源产品和服务市场规则，但世界第二大能源消费国美国和第一大能源生产国俄罗斯都没有加入。


World Trade Organization agreements apply to energy only tangentially, because energy is considered an exhaustible natural resource, and in many cases is thus exempt from the rules.	国际贸易组织协定对能源问题只是略有提及，因为能源被视为可耗竭自然资源，因此很多时候被免于世贸组织规则的束缚。


Moreover, non-Western countries – which include big consumers like China and India, and the largest producers (the Gulf states and Russia) – don’t trust the institutional system created mainly by the West.	此外，非西方国家——其中包括中国和印度等大型消费国以及海湾国家和俄罗斯等大型生产国——不信任主要由西方国家设置的国际体系。


The emerging countries rightly argue that the West is responsible for today’s climate-change problem.	新兴国家正确地指出，西方才是当今气候变化问题的始作俑者。


From the Industrial Revolution until very recently, the West’s development was free of any environmental restrictions, and the emerging countries believe that they should not have to bear the adjustment cost.	从工业革命到现在，西方的发展一直没有受到任何环境方面的约束，因此新兴国家认为，调整成本不应该由它们来承担。


Likewise, producing countries oppose giving up one of the few bases of power they have.	类似地，能源生产国也反对放弃手中仅有的权力。


The solution must include a new institution.	解决方案必须包括成立一个新的机构。


Perhaps, for a start, it would be a good idea for the world’s largest emitters to negotiate through the G-20, or something like it, for energy.	也许先让主要排放国通过G20之类的场合进行能源协商是个好主意。


Later, negotiations could be opened up to all states, placing them under the ambit of the UNFCCC, for example.	接着，协商应该对所有国家开放，（比如）以UNFCCC的名义让它们坐下来谈。


The focus of the negotiations must be comprehensive, resulting in emission limits and financial and technological support for energy sources that are less harmful to the environment.	协商的关注点必须面面俱到，产生关于排放限制以及对环境破坏性较小的能源予以财务和技术支持方面的结果。


Limiting emissions would impose costs disproportionately on oil-exporting countries, and on consumers in emerging countries, where technology is less sophisticated.	限制排放将给技术不太成熟的过度依赖能源出口的国家以及新兴国家消费者带来压力。


At the UNFCCC’s meeting in Durban, all countries – developed, emerging, with or without natural resources – must join together to ensure that when the other crises currently roiling the world are finally resolved, the biggest crisis of all does not catch us off guard.	在UNFCCC德班会议中，所有国家——不管是发达国家还是新兴国家，不管是自然资源富裕国还是匮乏国——必须群策群力，确保当前困扰世界的危机被解决后，我们不会对全人类所面临的最大危机放松警惕。


What Energy Shortage?	什么能源短缺？


MARTIGNY, SWITZERLAND – If we were able to capture and use the energy from just two minutes of sunlight falling on the earth, it would be enough to fuel our cars, light and heat our buildings, and provide for all of our other electricity needs for an entire year.	瑞士马蒂尼——如果我们能够捕获并利用短短两分钟内照射到地球上的太阳能量，就足以为我们的汽车加油、为我们的建筑提供照明、采暖以及满足整整一年其他所有的用电需求。


Simply put, we humans are not facing a shortage of energy.	简单地说，我们人类并没有面临能源短缺。


We are facing a technical challenge in capturing it and delivering it to consumers; and one of the most efficient ways to meet that challenge is to invest in better ways to store it.	我们所面临的是捕获能量并将其提供给消费者的技术难题； 投资于更好的储存方法是解决这一难题最有效的方式之一。


Many of the world’s problems today can be traced to energy use, from conflicts over oil supplies and concerns about greenhouse-gas emissions to lost productivity and output stemming from shortages and blackouts.	当今世界的许多问题都可以追溯到能源应用领域，从石油供应引发的冲突、温室气体排放引发的担忧到因电力短缺或停电造成的生产率和产量损失。


In many of the poorest parts of the world, the lack of energy stifles economic development.	在世界许多最贫困地区，能源的缺乏仍在扼杀经济发展。


Globally, more than 1.3 billion people have no access to electricity; and some 2.6 billion have no access to modern cooking facilities.	全球范围内超过13亿人还没用上电； 大约26亿人还没用上现代烹饪设施。


More than 95% of these people are in Sub-Saharan Africa or developing Asia, and 84% live in rural areas.	上述人口中超过95%居住在撒哈拉以南非洲或亚洲发展中国家，并且84%生活在农村地区。


During the run-up to the recent presidential election in Nigeria, for example, a woman was asked what she wanted the candidates to deliver.	比方说，在尼日利亚最近一次总统选举前夕，一位妇女被问及她想要候选人为她做什么。


She replied with a one-word answer: “Light.”	她只回答了一个词：“灯”。


Electricity, a basic commodity, would allow her to continue to work and her children to study.	电力这种最基本的商品能够让她继续工作、让她的孩子继续学习。


Unreliable or unavailable energy is a problem in much of Africa and the Indian sub-continent, as well as some other parts of Asia.	非洲及印度次大陆大部分地区、以及亚洲部分地区的问题是无法确保能源供应。


According to a report by the International Energy Agency, improvements to the energy sector could provide the equivalent of a decade of growth in some of the poorest parts of the world.	据国际能源机构一份报告显示，改进能源部门在世界某些最贫困地区可以带来相当于十年的增长成绩。


Our global energy crisis has been aggravated by a lack of innovation.	创新的缺乏加剧了全球能源危机。


According to a study by the United States government’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, more than 60% of the energy we use is lost between the time it is generated and the time it is consumed.	美国政府劳伦斯 - 利弗莫尔国家实验室的一项研究表明，我们的能源从产出到被消费期间的损耗高达超过60%。


This includes the inefficiency in converting fossil fuels to electricity, losses during transmission, wasteful consumer behavior, and the need to maintain a reserve to prevent blackouts.	其中包括将化石能源转化为电能过程中的低效率、传输损失、消费者的浪费行为以及有必要储备一部分电能预防停电事故。


A new wave of innovation is required, one that can eliminate waste, reduce pollution, and broaden access to energy around the world.	必须掀起一波新的创新浪潮，目的是杜绝浪费、减少污染并拓宽世界各地能源的获取。


That means focusing on efficiency-boosting technologies such as wireless communication, machine-to-machine communication, smart metering, and better production management.	这意味着注重效率提升技术，如无线通信、机器通信、智能电表和更好的生产管理。


Renewable energy sources, including solar and wind power, are well positioned to contribute to energy needs in both mature and emerging economies.	可再生能源，包括太阳能和风能，能够很好地满足成熟和新兴经济体的能源需求。


But, because the sun does not always shine, and the wind does not always blow, energy from these sources is unstable and intermittent.	但因为太阳并不总是照耀，风也并不总是吹拂，来源于上述渠道的能量具有间歇性和不稳定性。


And this will continue to be a problem unless, and until, we are able to store power from renewable sources efficiently.	除非我们能有效储存可再生能量，否则这将继续成为一道难题。


Studies by the US Western Electricity Coordinating Council have found that finding better ways to store energy could cut total waste by about 18% and boost the efficiency of electricity use by up to 11%.	美国西部电力协调委员会的研究已经发现寻找更好的方式来储存能量可以削减总浪费量的约18%，并提高11%的电能使用效率。


Better energy-storage methods would also make it easier to deliver electricity to hard-to-reach areas that are currently underserved, as well as help make the best use of often-scarce sources of power.	更好的储能方法也会使电力更容易输送到目前电力紧张的边远地区，有助于最大限度地利用往往稀缺的资源。


One well-tested method for storing energy is to use excess capacity to pump water into reservoirs, so that it can be used later to power turbines when demand is high.	一种久经考验的储能办法是利用超额能力将水泵入水库，以便在需求高峰时可以用它来驱动涡轮机。


But this approach is practical only in mountainous areas, making it unsuitable as a mass-market solution.	但这种方法只在山区可行，因此作为大规模市场解决方案有些不合适。


Promising areas of research include grid-scale batteries with the ability to charge and discharge tens of thousands of times and data analytics to optimize the use of the batteries and make the grid as efficient as possible.	有希望的研究领域包括充放电次数可达数万次的电网级别电池，以及靠数据分析来优化电池使用，从而尽可能提高电网效率。


It is not enough to generate energy.	仅仅会生产能量是不够的。


We must also use it efficiently, and the wide-scale adoption of state-of-the-art storage technology will be an essential part of the solution.	我们还必须有效利用、广泛采用先进的存储技术。


Ensuring that the world’s energy supplies are stable, efficient, accessible, and affordable will take time.	确保全球能源稳定、高效、方便和廉价供应需要时间。


But breakthroughs are on the horizon.	但我们很快就会实现突破。


Our task is to keep our sights there.	我们的任务是继续关注这一问题。


Engaging the Islamists	接触伊斯兰主义者


The massive victory of Hamas in the Palestinian parliamentary elections stunned much of the world, but the outcome should not have been so surprising.	哈马斯在巴勒斯坦议会选举中大获全胜令全世界为之震惊。 然而这一结果本不应该让人如此意外。


Indeed, Hamas’s moment of triumph is part of a growing regional pattern.	的确，哈马斯的胜利时刻是该地区日益明朗的趋势的一部分。


Four years ago, Turkey’s Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party won a plurality in parliamentary elections and formed a government.	四年前，土耳其的伊斯兰党派“公正和发展党”赢得了议会选举的多数席位并组阁。


A month later, a similarly named Islamic party in Morocco, Parti de la Justice et du Development (PJD), finished third in legislative elections.	一个月之后，摩洛哥一个名称相似的伊斯兰党派PJD在立法选举中位居第三。


Last December, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (legally banned since 1954) scored equally impressive results, garnering 20% of the popular vote and 88 seats in the Parliament, making it the main opposition bloc to Mubarak’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).	去年12月，埃及的穆斯林兄弟会（自1954年起就被定为非法组织）同样战绩辉煌，赢得了20%地普选选票和88个议会席位，从而成为穆巴拉克的执政党“国家民主党” (NDP)的主要反对派阵营。


Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite parties in Iraq have also performed well in elections.	黎巴嫩真主党和伊拉克的什叶派政党也在选举中取得了不俗的成绩。


Despite this democratic endorsement, most Western governments have been reluctant to engage with these parties or to prepare for Islamists coming to power through the ballot box.	尽管有民主的前提，但大多数西方国家政府在与这些党派接触方面还是颇为勉强，在接受伊斯兰主义者通过选举掌权的事实上也是如此。


The irony is obvious: Islamists, who seem suspicious of democracy as a Western plot, took President George W. Bush’s promotion of democracy in the Muslim world more seriously than America’s autocratic friends – and possibly more seriously than Bush himself.	它的讽刺意味在于：似乎一向把民主怀疑为西方阴谋的伊斯兰主义者，比美国那些实行独裁的盟友们更严肃地对待布什总统在穆斯林世界推行民主的行动—甚至比布什本人还严肃。


In his first press conference after Hamas’s victory, Bush was visibly at a loss for words in responding to this “unexpected development.”	在哈马斯获胜以后白宫举行的第一次新闻发布会上，布什在回应这一“出乎意料的形势发展”时明显语塞。


The truth is that over the last three years, some regional insiders, including me, had several lengthy discussions with Bush’s advisors on the National Security Council (NSC) and in the State Department.	事实上在过去的三年里，包括我在内的一些地区性“局内人士”和布什在国家安全委员会和国务院的顾问们进行了几次长时间的讨论。


We urged the Bush administration to formulate a consistent policy that engages the region’s Islamists who are willing to rule by democratic principles.	我们敦促布什政府制定连续性的政策，与本地区愿意接受民主治理原则的伊斯兰主义者接触。


Some of this debate was widely publicized.	其中有些辩论的内容已经广为人知了。


Part of America’s reluctance to deal with Islamists reflected concern over the reaction of autocratic regimes, some of which are long-time allies.	美国在和伊斯兰主义者接触方面的迟疑在一定程度上反映了它对那些独裁政权的反应有所顾虑。 它们中的一些国家是美国的长期盟友。


This fear proved not only unwarranted, but also counterproductive, for it has not stopped the march of the Islamists in the Arab Middle East.	事实证明这种担心不仅是毫无必要的，也是适得其反的，因为它并未能阻止伊斯兰主义者在阿拉伯中东地区的征程。


Now it is time for a fresh and bold approach toward all contending political forces in the Muslim world.	现在是时候以一种全新而大胆的策略来应对穆斯林世界所有介入性政治力量了。


First, America and the West must stop supporting autocrats with aid, trade, and arms.	首先，美国和西方必须停止以援助、贸易和武器的方式支持独裁政权。


Second, there must be a push to expand the public space for the Muslim world’s democrats, so free media and independent judiciaries to protect press freedom need to be boosted.	其次，还必须努力为穆斯林世界的民主人士扩大公共空间，因此就需要推动自由媒体和独立司法以保护新闻自由。


Third, an active dialogue that engages the Islamists, no matter how difficult, must begin and continue.	再者，不论有多困难，一场和伊斯兰主义者的积极对话必须开启动并持续下去。


The West needs to establish clear and consistent rules of engagement.	西方必须建立明晰和持续的接触规则。


It is legitimate and imperative to make resumption of aid to Palestinians contingent on Hamas’s recognition of Israel’s right to exist and on its commitment to all international agreements previously signed by the PLO and the Palestinian Authority.	有条件地恢复对巴勒斯坦的援助是合法的也是必需的。 为此，哈马斯必须承认以色列的存在权并恪守此前由巴解组织和巴勒斯坦当局所签署的各种协议。


In an earlier step toward recognition by the world community, the PLO had to revamp the Palestinian Covenant, which called for the destruction of Israel.	作为赢得国际社会承认的第一步，巴解组织必须修改《巴勒斯坦盟约》，该盟约呼吁摧毁以色列。


There is no reason why Hamas would not follow that precedent, if the demand to do so were made relentlessly.	如果以强硬的姿态提出这样的要求，那么哈马斯没有理由不步前人后尘。


In fact, all militant liberation movements have renounced violence in due time, from the IRA to the Sandinistas to the African National Congress.	事实上，从爱尔兰共和军到桑地诺民族解放阵线（Sandinistas），再到非洲国民议会（African National Congress），所有的武装解放运动都在适当的时候都 放弃了暴力。


Likewise, Israel must reciprocate every gesture of good will from Hamas, however psychologically difficult this may be.	同样，不论在心理上多么难以接受，以色列也必须积极回应来自哈马斯的每一个友好姿态。


After all, in 1947 similar Jewish “freedom fighters” blew up the King David Hotel, killing tens of British officers.	毕竟，1947年和他们类似的犹太“自由战士”炸毁了大卫王酒店，杀死数十名英国军官。


Until the 1970’s, these Zionist guerillas were wanted as terrorists by British authorities.	直到1970年代，这些犹太复国主义游队员还被英国政府作为恐怖分子通缉。


Then one of them, Menachem Begin, was elected Prime Minister of Israel and became a partner in peace with Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat.	而接着，他们中的一员，梅纳赫姆·贝京当选为以色列总理，并成为埃及总统萨达特的和平伙伴。


Sadat himself was a suspected terrorist, according to Egyptian authorities, for having plotted and taken part in assassinating a prominent political figure.	据埃及当局称，萨达特本人由于策划和参与实施了对一位政治要员的刺杀，因而也有恐怖分子的嫌疑。


But both Sadat and Begin became respected worldwide for taking risks for peace and won a joint Nobel Peace prize.	但萨达特和贝京同样由于敢为和平承担风险而受到全世界的尊敬，并共同获得诺贝尔和平奖。


So, for Hamas as well as for America, the West, and Israel, it is futile to look back in anger and frustration.	因此，对于哈马斯以及美国、西方和以色列而言，带着愤怒和挫伤抱着过去不放是于事无补的。


Instead, they all should look forward to creating anew the more positive legacies of Sadat, Begin, Rabin, and even Ariel Sharon.	他们都应该以前瞻的心态开创比萨达特、贝京、拉宾甚至沙龙的遗策更为新颖和积极的政策。


If those leaders could disavow their own violent pasts and take practical steps toward peace in the region, why can’t Hamas?	如果这些领导人们都能够和他们暴力的过去决裂，并采取切实步骤达成地区和平，哈马斯又怎么会不行呢？


A New Century’s New Technologies	新世纪的新技术


DAVOS – This year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, addresses threats to geopolitical stability and human life, and seeks ways to accelerate the design of more effective political, economic, and technological tools to address them.	达沃斯—今年的瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛要确定地缘政治和人类安全问题，并寻找加快制定更有效的政治、经济和技术工具以解决它们的办法。 我们这一代人的最紧迫挑战包括食品、水和能源短缺；


Among this generation’s most daunting challenges are food, water, and energy shortages; climate change and rising sea levels; and the spread of new, drug-resistant diseases.	气候变化和海平面上升； 以及新的耐药性疾病的蔓延。


Humanity has faced threats to its existence and the health of the planet before, yet we have managed to avoid the apocalypse, or at least postpone it, through ingenuity and invention.	此前，人类便已面临着生存威胁和地球健康威胁，但我们通过巧思和发明成功避免了启示录的发生，或者至少推迟了它。


This year’s Davos meeting will offer a glimpse of where the next life-, planet- and economy-saving discoveries and products will come from, and where we should invest our talents and treasure to fuel the next generation of transformative technologies.	今年的达沃斯会议将让我们略微了解下一波拯救生命、地球和经济的发现和产品将会产生于何处，以及我们应该将天才和资金用于何处以刺激下一代变革性技术。


An accelerating convergence of the biological, physical, and engineering sciences promises a stunning array of new technological solutions.	生物学、物理学和工程学的加速趋同给我们带来了层出不穷的新技术方案。


Imagine a coal-fueled power plant that emits only water and clean air.	想象一下，一座火电厂只排放水和新鲜空气。


Inside the plant, designer yeast cells transform the carbon dioxide released during the coal’s combustion into raw materials for floor tiles and other construction supplies.	再地球内部，设计师酵母细胞将燃煤过程所产生的二氧化碳转化为地板砖和其他建筑材料的原料。


Or imagine a simple and inexpensive urine test that can diagnose cancer, eliminating the need for a surgical biopsy.	或者想象一下用简单又廉价的尿检诊断癌症，彻底避免手术活体切片。


And, when cancer treatment is needed, its toxic punch hits cancer cells selectively, with far fewer damaging side effects.	此外，当需要治疗癌症时，疗法的毒性只针对癌细胞，大大降低伤害性副作用。


Or imagine a future with plentiful food and fuel crops.	或者想象一下食物和燃料作物充足的未来。


Through improved seed stocks and more efficient water management, we can have crops that require less water, grow at higher density, and thrive in wider temperature ranges.	通过改良种子储备和更有效的水管理，我们可以获得水需求更低的作物，以更高密度种植，并且能适应更大的温度范围。


And data-driven agriculture supply chains will move them more effectively to the market.	而数据驱动型农业供应链将把作物更有效地推向市场。


These advances will enable us to feed and provide power – at a lower economic and environmental cost – to the anticipated 2050 population of nine billion people.	这些进步将让我们能够养活2050年的预计人口——九十亿人，并为他们提供电力——以更小的经济和环境成本实现。


These and other innovations are emerging from the convergence of biology and engineering that is now upon us.	这些和其他创新正在通过方兴未艾的生物学和工程学的趋同涌现。


A new generation of scientists, engineers, and clinicians, educated more broadly than their predecessors, speak the languages of both and are working together in unprecedented ways.	新一代科学家、工程师和临床医生，他们受到的教育比前辈范围更广，能够互相听懂语言，并以前所未有的方式共事。


They are conversing across disciplines – not only engineering and biology, but also chemistry, physics, mathematics, and computation – and setting new paths for innovation, from initial discovery to the launch of advanced applications in the marketplace.	他们进行着跨学科对话——不仅是工程学和生物学，也包括化学、物理学、数学和计算机——并寻找新的创新之路，让初始发现转变为市场中的成熟应用。


The technologies on which many of us depend today arose from a parallel convergence of discoveries in physics and engineering in the early twentieth century.	今天我们许多人所依赖的技术来自二十世纪初物理学和工程学发现的并行收敛。


In 1900, the world did not have ready access to electricity, automobiles and aviation, or telecommunications.	1900年，世界还没有没有普及电力、汽车和飞机，也没有通信设备。


In much of the world, we now take these conveniences for granted; indeed, we regard them as necessities.	而在当今世界大部，这些东西已是理所当然； 事实上，我们已经把它们当成了必需品。


What began as esoteric explorations of the workings of the physical world – the nature of electromagnetism and the atomic structure of matter, for example – became, in the hands of inventors and innovators, telecommunications, new drugs, medical imaging and devices, nuclear power, the computer chip, and the Internet.	一开始，它们只是对物理世界运转方式的深奥探险——电磁学的性质和物质的原子结构等——如今，再发明家和创新者手中，它们变成了通信、新药物、医学造影和设备、核电、计算机芯片和互联网。


There are now more connected mobile devices than there are people on the planet.	如今，连上互联网的移动设备数量比地球人口还要多。


The products of electronic and digital industries will continue to expand their impact, with “big data,” the “Internet of things,” and the “industrial Internet” becoming increasingly prevalent.	电子和数字行业的产品将继续扩大它们的影响力，“大数据”、“物联网”和“工业互联网”日益普及。


Beyond the extension of these twentieth-century technologies, we can also anticipate a new set of transformational industries – as yet nameless – as we advance into the new millennium.	除了这些二十世纪技术的扩展，我们还可以预言新一批变革性行业——尽管我们还不知道它们的名字——将在新千年挺进。


At the same time, just as the twentieth century’s convergence of physics and engineering transformed our lives, the accelerating convergence of biology and engineering is driving unprecedented discoveries that promise to create another platform for innovation, the rise of new industries, and economic growth.	与此同时，正如二十世纪物理学和工程学改变了我们的生活，生物学和工程学的加速趋同正在驱动前所未有的发现，为创新、新行业的崛起和经济增长创造新的平台。


The manufacture of fuels and pharmaceuticals already relies on purpose-developed microbes that create sophisticated biological products.	燃料制造和制药业已经开始依赖按需开发的微生物以创造成熟的生物产品。


New manufacturing processes will incorporate specially designed microbes and computer-characterized compounds into an array of products.	新制造过程将结合特别设计的微生物和计算机特征的化合物，形成各种产品。


Likewise, the dramatic reduction in the cost of gene sequencing, from roughly $40 million per human genome in 2003 to about $5,000 today, together with a rapid increase in computational power, is boosting the speed, accuracy, and robustness of medical diagnostic tests.	类似地，基因测序成本的显著降低——从每人2003年的4 000万美元左右下降到今天的5 000美元左右——以及计算能力的快速增加正在提高医学诊断测试的速度、准确性和鲁棒性。


That promises not only more timely and effective therapies for cancer, but also similar advances against other currently intractable diseases.	这不但能带来更及时、更有效的癌症疗法，也能给其他目前的疑难杂症的医治带来类似的进步。


The industries and economic drivers of the twenty-first century will arise from the increasingly combined efforts of biology and engineering.	二十一世纪的产业和经济驱动力将来自日益结合的生物学和工程学努力。


It is this convergence that will help deliver the technological solutions needed to supply enough clean energy, food, and water, as well as better health, to sustain the world’s nine billion people in 2050.	这一趋同有助于产生提供足够清洁能源、食物、和水所需要的技术方案，也能提供更加健康的未来，让2050年的九十亿人口能够存活下去。


The Great Bank Escape	银行界的胜利大逃亡


STANFORD – This year has proven to be yet another replete with futile efforts to manage the outsize grip that banks and bankers have on the world economy.	发自斯坦福——事实证明，今年试图将世界经济从银行和银行家们过分强势的掌控中解救出来的努力又是徒劳的。


The global financial system remains distorted and dangerous.	全球金融系统仍然扭曲并处于危险之中。


Since the 1980’s, “shareholder value” has increasingly become the focus of corporate governance.	自1980年代以来，“股东价值”日益成为公司治理的重点。


Managers and board members often receive stock-based compensation, which gives them equity ownership rights and, in turn, creates a powerful incentive to maximize the market value of their companies’ shares.	管理层和董事会成员常常获得股权补偿，这不但使他们获得了权益，反过来又创造了一个使公司股票市场价值最大化的强大诱因。


But actions taken in the name of shareholder value often benefit only those whose wealth is closely tied to the company’s profits, and may actually be harmful to many shareholders.	然而以股东价值为名实施的经营活动通常只有利于那些自身财富与公司利润关系密切的人，而且很可能实际上会损害许多股东的利益。


Despite their claims that they are pursuing shareholder value, the actions of top managers, in particular, often reflect only their own interests, rather than those of shareholders who often hold the great majority of the shares.	尽管管理层宣称他们在追求股东价值，但它们的所作所为通常只体现了自身——尤其是高层管理人员——的利益，对那些持有绝大部分股份的股东并无好处。


This discrepancy can be seen clearly in the banking sector.	这种矛盾在银行业尤为明显。


Before 2007, banks enjoyed high returns and soaring stock prices.	2007年以前银行享受着高回报以及不断飙升的股价。


But excessive indebtedness and losses on the risky investments that had been made triggered the global financial crisis and led to the failure, or near-failure, of many major financial institutions.	然而之前银行在风险投资中的过度负债和损失引发了全球金融危机，并导致了许多主要金融机构濒临或完全破产。


Banks with substantial overhanging debt reduced lending, and, despite the massive intervention of governments and central banks, the crisis dragged down the global economy.	积累了大量未偿还债务的银行随之缩小贷款规模，而尽管各国政府及中央银行大肆出手干预，此次危机还是把全球经济拖下了水。


As a result, since 2008, shareholders have lost substantially on their investments in banks.	结果自2008年以来，股民在银行上的投资损失惨重。


The crisis – together with the prolonged economic downturn that followed – caused diversified shareholders to lose on their other investments, too.	这次危机——加上随之而来的长期经济低迷——也导致了那些进行多样化投资的股东们在其他投资项目上遭受了损失。


Furthermore, many bank shareholders have suffered from the disruption in lending, either directly or via their businesses or employers.	此外，许多银行股东都直接或是间接地通过所在企业或是雇主受到了贷款中断的影响。


Some have even lost their jobs.	有些人甚至因此失业。


And, along with other taxpayers, they incurred some of the cost of the bailouts.	但与其他纳税人一起，他们还承担了救助银行的费用。


And yet, despite large losses on their holdings in 2007-2008, top bankers fared significantly better than most of their shareholders did in 2000-2008.	然而，尽管顶级银行家们所持的股份在2007年与2008年之间蒙受了巨大的损失，但却依然比其他大部分股东要好过得多。


Even executives of the failed investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers walked away with hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation, while the companies’ shareholders, who received some dividends along the way, fared much worse – not even considering their other crisis-related losses.	即使是破了产的贝尔斯登和雷曼兄弟投资银行的主管们也能获得数亿美元的补偿，而这些公司的股东们——虽然也跟着获得了一些分红——只得到了极为糟糕的保守，更别说其他跟危机相关的损失了。


To safeguard their interests, bankers have lobbied relentlessly against regulations that would require them to rely less on borrowing and more on retained earnings or new equity to fund their lending and investments.	为了捍卫他们的利益，银行家们一直不断游说反对一些法规——这些法规要求他们较少依赖借款，转向依靠留存收益或者新股基金来资助贷款及投资。


They cite the need to deliver high returns for shareholders, implying that tighter regulations undermine shareholders’ interests.	他们声称需要为股东带来更高的回报，暗示更严格的法规会损害股东利益。


But safer, less indebted banks are better able to continue lending without becoming distressed or needing support.	但更安全、负债更少的银行才能更好地继续放贷而不致陷入困境或寻求支持。


As a result, they are less likely to destabilize the global financial system or impose harm on most shareholders and the public.	这些银行因此也不大可能破坏全球金融系统稳定或损害大部分股东和公众的利益。


Bankers also claim that higher equity requirements would restrict credit and hinder economic growth.	银行家们还宣称更高的资本要求会限制信贷及阻碍经济增长。


But their arguments are flawed and misleading.	但他们的论据是有缺陷且具有误导性的。


For example, they use return on equity as their primary measure of profitability, but neglect to distinguish between ROE and shareholder value.	比如，他们主要用股权收益来衡量盈利能力，却忽略了股本回报率与股东价值之间的区别。


In fact, in the single-minded quest for higher returns, bankers might expose shareholders to excessive risk, without compensating them adequately.	事实上如果一心追求高回报率的话，银行家们就会将股东们暴露在过度风险之下，却无法提供给他们足够的相应补偿。


And bankers neglect to acknowledge the role of government guarantees and subsidies in making so much borrowing possible and attractive. 	银行家们也故意忽略政府担保和的津贴在导致借贷过于容易发放且如此吸引方面所扮演的角色。


Contrary to bankers’ claims, increasing equity requirements significantly, and thus safeguarding the financial system’s stability, is in the public interest – including the interest of most shareholders.	与银行家们的主张相反，显著增加股本要求，从而保护金融系统的稳定才符合公众利益——这包括了大部分股东的利益。


By contrast, preserving the status quo, or implementing inadequate regulation, would allow bankers to continue to profit at the expense of others.	相比之下，如果只是维持现状或者监管不足的话，银行家们将会继续以他人的损失为代价谋取私利。


Small shareholders cannot easily influence banks’ decisions, especially on complex risk-related issues.	小股东无法轻易影响银行的决定，尤其是在与复杂风险相关的事情上。


And banks’ boards of directors, which wield ultimate control, are not legally required to consider the broader impact of their actions on others.	银行的董事会拥有最终控制权，然而没有法律规定它要考虑其决策行为可能对他人造成的更大范围影响。


Instead, their narrow perspective – which tends to coincide with executives’ preferences even at the expense of other shareholders – dictates their decision-making.	反而，他们狭隘的视角——通常与主管们的偏好相符并伤害到小股东——却主导了它们的决策。


Even from banks’ narrow standpoint, higher equity requirements would cost less than other proposed regulations.	即使从银行狭隘的立场出发，更高的股本要求所产生的成本也低于其他法规方案。


And such requirements would reduce the likelihood that strong banks would be called upon to finance the resolution of failed institutions.	而且这种要求还会降低强势银行被要求承担破产机构解决方案经费的可能性。


(Of course, these considerations are less relevant if bankers expect to succeed in blocking all regulation aimed at reducing excessive risk-taking, and to be bailed out in a crisis.)	（当然，如果银行家们预计能成功阻止所有旨在减少过度冒险行为的法规，或者预料到能得到救援，这些考虑因素就不太相关了。 ）


As matters stand, bankers continue to benefit fully from the upside of their investments, while sharing the downside with creditors and taxpayers – and sometimes with shareholders.	照目前的情况，银行家们继续从其投资的有利一面中独享全部收益，同时却要债权人和纳税人——有时是与股东——共同分担投资的亏损。


Although some progress has been made in improving regulation and enforcement, industry lobbies have largely succeeded in delaying essential reforms needed to ensure global financial stability.	尽管在改善监管与执法上取得了一些进步，行业游说还是在很大程度上成功拖延了用以保证全球金融稳定的必要改革。


JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon reportedly told his daughter that a financial crisis “happens every five to seven years.”	据报道摩根大通的总裁杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）告诉自己的女儿说金融危机“每5到7年就会发生一次”。


Last month, the bank paid $1.1 billion in dividends, reducing its ability to absorb future losses on its investments.	上个月，摩根银行支付了11亿美元的股息，使其吸收未来投资损失的能力遭到了削弱。


If policymakers and regulators do not strengthen their reform efforts, taxpayers and shareholders – not bankers like Dimon – will be the ones who suffer the consequences of the next crisis as well.	如果政策制定者和监管者们不加强他们的改革力度，纳税人和股东——当然不是戴蒙这种大银行家——将依然是下一次危机的受害者。


Enlightenment on Trial	启蒙主义经受考验


Ugly debates about religion and science usually seem to be confined to the United States.  In recent months, however, such debates have begun to spread – first to Europe and then around the world.	        有关宗教和科学的丑陋辩论通常看似局限在美国。 但是，最近几个月来，这场辩论开始蔓延，首先到欧洲，然后遍布全球。


Science, it seems, is drifting into political dangers it has not faced since before the Enlightenment.	科学似乎正在飘向自启蒙运动之前以来所从未遇到的政治危险之中。


Europe began its own American-style debate on the origins of life when Cardinal Christoph Schönborn of Vienna cast doubt on the acceptability of Darwinism and evolutionary theory to people who see themselves as faithful Roman Catholics.	        当维也纳的红衣主教克里斯托弗·施波恩对那些自认为是罗马天主教信徒的人们质疑达尔文主义和进化论理论是否可以接受时，欧洲开始了其美国式的有关生命起源的辩论。


The Cardinal argued that evolution is the work of God and that evolutionary theory should be interpreted in that light and no other.	这个红衣主教主张进化是上帝之作，应该根据这一观点，而非其他观点来解释进化论理论。


With Cardinal Schönborn’s intervention, the peace between science and religion that in Old Europe had held almost since the Enlightenment – and at least since the historically hard-won eviction of the Church from politics in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries – seemed suddenly to have been broken.	        从启蒙运动、至少是自十九世纪末和二十世纪初的经过艰苦努力而赢得的政教分离以来，以来老欧洲一直维系的科学和宗教之间和平相处。 在红衣主教施波恩的干预下，这一局面突然之间被打破了。


Revealed truth, the Cardinal seemed to say, must be accorded primacy over the truths science reveals through reason.	这位红衣主教似乎说，上帝启示的真理应当被置于科学通过理性揭示的真理之上。


This is not to say that religious sentiment or, in the case of Germany, bitter historical experience stemming from the Nazi era, had not informed other European debates, say, on the ethics of stem-cell research.	        这并非说明宗教情感，或者就德国而言，从纳粹时期发展而来的苦难的历史经历并没有就干细胞研究的伦理问题向其他欧洲国家表明。


Indeed, the religious background of Europe’s nations clearly manifested itself in various European laws on such research, with the United Kingdom and Sweden being the most liberal and Italy, Austria, and Poland the most restrictive.	实际上，欧洲国家的宗教背景清楚地反映在有关这种研究的不同的欧洲国家的法律之中。 英国和瑞典最为开明，而意大利、奥地利和波兰最为限制。


But none of these debates directly challenged the role of science in society or posed, as Cardinal Schönborn did, the idea that religion and science are potentially incompatible.	但是，没有任何辩论挑战科学在社会中的作用，或者像红衣主教施波恩一般表明宗教和科学可能互不相容。


Following the Cardinal’s declaration, many pointed to the US as a warning sign of the dangers inherent in politicizing science through religion.	        根据红衣主教的宣称，许多人指向美国，认为那里是通过宗教把科学政治化所固有的危险的迹象。


They noted that President Bush had sided openly with those who want to make evolutionary theory optional in schools’ science curricula.	他们指出，有些人想让进化学理论成为学校科学课程的选修科目，而布什总统已经公开地站在他们一边。


The reason that such pseudo-science has prevailed in so many American schools is directly related to America’s tremendously decentralized school system, which allows committed local groups of the religious-minded to reshape the curriculum.	        这种伪科学在众多的美国学校中张扬，其原因与美国极为松散的学校体系直接有关。 这一体系允许宗教观念坚定的地方组织修改学校的课程。


The power of faith-based movements in the US is undeniable, and their influence in other areas where science and politics meet, including the availability of certain drugs – the so-called “morning after” pill being one example – is growing.	在美国，此类基于信仰的运动的力量不可否认，并且其在科学和政治融合的领域影响力与日俱增，这包括供应某些药品，如所谓的“女用口服避孕丸”即是一例。


It is unlikely that European schools, because of their structure, can be invaded by “creationism.”	欧洲的学校由于其结构不太可能受到“特创论”的侵袭。


Yet Europe should not think itself immune to this problem.	然而欧洲也不应该认为可以免受此问题影响。


When dogmatic faith enters politics, compromises on controversial issues, which are indispensable in a democracy, become difficult to achieve.	当教义信仰进入政治领域，遇到争论议题时就难以达成妥协，而这一点对民主政治而言不可或缺。


This is because fundamental values – as opposed to, say, the distribution of material resources – are seen as being non-negotiable.	这是因为基本价值观念与分配物质资源相比被认为是没有商议余地的。


The danger is that scientific decisions with a scientific-technical component are no longer subject to study or rational argument, but instead are fought over by various interest groups, with some invariably claiming that their taxes should be used to fund only research that is compatible with their values.	危险在于，这样会导致包含科技因素的科学决策不再服从于研究或者理性的争论，而变成了各种利益团体争斗的目标。 这些团体总是宣称他们交纳的税收应该只用来赞助与他们的价值观一致的研究项目。


Debates about the nature and benefits of science are not confined to the US and Europe.	关于科学的性质与利益之争并不是仅限于美国和欧洲。


When South Korea’s National University announced the first-ever successful cloning of a dog, the news triggered arguments about science and society throughout Asia.	当韩国国立大学宣布首次克隆成功狗之后，这条新闻在亚洲各地引发了关于科学和社会的争论。


Although the language of religion was not used overtly, the debate in Asia reflected the same fears that science is somehow “out of control” and far too powerful.	虽然没有明显使用宗教的语言，但是亚洲的争论却反映了同样一种担心，即科学不知何故正“失去控制”，并且力量之大令人恐惧。


One key reason for this is the fact that China is pouring vast resources into research and development.	导致这个的一个主要原因是中国正在把大量的资源投入到研发领域。


Between 1995 and 2002, it doubled the percentage of its rapidly growing GDP that it invests in R&D, with biotechnology and other high-tech fields enjoying the highest priority.	1995 年到2002年期间，中国研发领域的投入在其快速增长的国民生产总值中所占的百分比翻了一番，生物科技和其他高科技领域是重中之重。


Science, it seems, is becoming a partner in the unnerving development of a new global superpower.	科学似乎正在成为这个新的全球超级大国发展的合伙人，这种发展令全世界感到紧张。


Today, science belongs to a rapidly globalizing world.	今天，科学属于快速全球化的世界。


It is perceived as a motor of economic growth, but also as a threat to our security and beliefs.	它既被看作经济增长的发动机，但也被看作给我们的安全和信仰带来威胁。


Cultural worldviews and religion, of course, will continue to shape the overall cultural and value context within which science and technology interact.	文化世界观和宗教当然将会继续塑造文化和价值观形势，科学和技术则会在这一形势中互相影响。


But values are subject to change, often in response to past experience and fears about the future.	但是价值观常常会因为过去的经验及对未来的恐惧而改变。


It took centuries for science to carve out its sphere of autonomy, always a relative one, from politics and religion alike.	经过数个世纪，科学才从政治和宗教中独立出来，虽然还有千丝万缕的联系。


This autonomy has served science well, and independent and accountable science has served society and the economy well.	这种独立状态有利于科学，独立并负责的科学对社会和经济做出了巨大贡献。


If this beneficial relationship is to be maintained, scientific independence – from both religious dogmatism and governmental intervention – must be defended.	如果要想维持这种有益的关系，那么就一定要保护科学的独立，免受摆脱宗教教义和政治干涉。


Who would have thought that, at the dawn of the twenty-first century, the old Enlightenment debates would still be so potent?	谁曾想到��在二十一世纪初，旧的启蒙运动的辩论仍然会如此激烈？


The Deflated Helium Industry	萎缩的氦产业


OXFORD – Helium is vital in today’s technology-based world.	牛津—氦对于以技术为基础的当今世界来说至关重要。


It cools, with precision, the superconducting coils of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines, as well as the silicon used to make chips for devices like smart phones or the glass that is drawn into optic fibers.	它能精确冷却磁共振（MRI）机的超导线圈和用于制造智能电话芯片和制光纤玻璃的硅。


For pressure-fed rockets, Big Physics, or even party balloons, there is no realistic alternative to helium.	对压馈火箭、大物理甚至派对气球，都没有氦的现实替代物。


Until recently, the world’s seemingly abundant supply of helium was extracted solely as a by-product of natural-gas production in just two dozen helium-rich fields.	到目前为止，地球上看似取之不尽的氦供应完全来自24个富藏氦资源的天然气田，它们是天然气生产的副产品。


But global helium production shortfalls have driven double-digit inflation of helium prices and fueled rising anxiety in the scientific community.	但全球氦产量短缺让氦价格以两位数的增长率上涨，也让科学界的焦虑日益增加。


Now, prospectors in the United States – the world’s largest helium exporter – are exploring fields in search of helium exclusively.	如今，美国（世界最大氦出口国）勘探者正在勘察专门生产氦的矿藏。


Helium shortages inevitably spur debate about production and preservation practices.	氦短缺难免会刺激关于生产和保护的争论。


Since the 1996 US Helium Privatization Act (HPA) – which required the government to sell off its helium reserves using a rigid price formula in order to repay the debt accrued from a large helium buy-up in the 1960’s – there have been three such shortfalls.	自1996年美国氦私有化法案（HPA）实施以来，已经发生了三次类似的短缺。 HPA要求政府以呆板的价格公式出售其还储备，以偿还20世纪60年代大规模购氦所累积的债务。


Given that the HPA calls for helium sales to cease once the debt is paid – that is, this October – the scientific, medical, and technology communities have become increasingly concerned about a massive helium shortage and ballooning costs.	HPA要求售氦行为在债务偿还（即今年10月）后即行终止，因此科学界、医学界和技术界越来越担心会出现氦的大规模短缺和成本飙升。


This, together with the fact that helium underpins much US employment, may have contributed to the US Congress’s recent efforts to keep one-third of the world’s helium supply flowing, but at higher prices.	这与氦支持着美国大量就业的事实一起，已导致最近美国国会采取措施试图保证全球氦储备的三分之一流动起来，但价格会有所上涨。


The move is timely, because the mandated disposal of such a large volume of helium from the US Federal Helium Reserve over the last 15 years has displaced many helium producers in the American Midwest and deferred projects elsewhere (see graph).	这是个及时的行动，因为过去15年中，强制处理美国联邦氦储备系统的巨量氦储备让美国中西部的大量氦生产商倒闭，也让其他地方的工程推迟（见图）。


Indeed, by artificially constraining helium prices, the HPA weakened companies’ incentive to invest in separating helium from natural gas.	事实上，通过人为约束氦价格，HPA削弱了公司对从天然气中分离氦的投资的激励。


As a result, many thousands of tonnes of helium have simply been vented into the atmosphere at source or when the natural gas has been burned.	结果，数千吨氦在生产地或随天然气的燃烧而排入了大气。


Ending this lamentable squandering of helium requires a fundamental shift in thinking in the natural-gas industry.	结束这一对氦的可悲浪费要求天然气行业思维的根本性转变。


As helium is a by-product of its much larger energy counterpart, it is fair to say that helium that is not used will not be preserved.	氦是其高能配对物质的副产品，可以说，未被使用的氦是不可保留的。


Today, the upstream helium market is structurally weak.	如今，上游氦市场具有结构性弱点。


Helium-bearing Hugoton, America’s largest natural-gas field, is in decline.	生产氦的美国最大天然气田雨果顿（Hugoton）正在走下坡路。


And sustaining the US Federal Helium Reserve’s high production capacity, which used to enable it to offset global helium-supply disruptions, is no longer geologically viable.	而维持美国联邦氦储备提供的高产能并用于减轻全球氦供应破坏的影响在地质学角度上也是不可能的。


Moreover, the rapid expansion in the US of shale gas, which contains no economically recoverable helium, has squeezed marginal conventional-gas supplies.	此外，美国页岩气行业的迅速扩张（页岩气不含能廉价回收的氦）挤出了传统天然气的边际供应。


For example, Oklahoma’s Keyes natural-gas field – which relieved a major helium shortage just as the US government started purchasing the gas from private producers during the space race – now lies dormant.	比如，俄克拉荷马的凯斯（Keyes）天然气田如今已处于休眠状态，而在美国政府自星际竞争期间开始从私人生产者手中收购氦气以来，凯斯气田缓解了巨大的氦短缺状况。


And helium extraction is not economical without natural-gas production.	而如果不生产天然气，氦提炼在经济上也不可行。


As it stands, natural-gas companies have little incentive to adapt their operations to enable helium extraction.	天然气公司也没有什么激励改变经营方式提炼氦气。


In Algeria, a giant gas field, the helium-rich Hassi R’Mel, is also a gas hub for the Sahara region.	阿尔及利亚的富氦气田Hassi R’Mel同时也是撒哈拉地区的天然气中心。


Rich and lean streams are blended there.	富氦气流和贫氦气流在这里汇集。


This reduces the helium concentration and makes extraction difficult.	这减少了氦集中度，也让提炼氦气变得十分困难。


Clearly, the problem is not insufficient helium, but the economic, legal, and physical constraints on helium resources.	显然，问题不在于氦不足，而在于对氦资源的经济、法律和物理限制。


In fact, Arizona alone has enough helium to supply the US for a decade.	事实上，光是亚利桑那州便蕴藏着足够供应美国十年的氦储量。


But the St. John’s Dome natural-gas field is dominated by CO2, which the Ridgeway Arizona Oil Corporation aims to use to enhance oil-recovery projects in the area.	但圣约翰的多姆（Dome）天然气田中大部分是二氧化碳李奇微亚利桑那石油公司（Ridgeway Arizona Oil Corporation）意在利用这些二氧化碳增强该地区的石油回收工程。


Given that the CO2 is not yet being produced and will not be vented, the field’s helium remains inaccessible.	二氧化碳并不是产品之一，也不会被排放，因此该气田中的氦仍然无法提炼。


Despite these challenges, the industrial gas companies are gaining access to helium in low-grade gas sources.	尽管存在这些挑战，工业天然气公司正在获得低等级天然气中的氦。


Although some producers – including Exxon Mobil’s Shute Creek plant near La Barge, Wyoming (until 2013, home to the world’s largest helium refinery) – once vented waste CO2 into the atmosphere, they are now installing carbon-capture facilities to reduce or eliminate emissions.	尽管一些生产者——包括位于怀俄明州拉巴奇（La Barge）的埃克森美孚公司纬纱溪（Shute Creek）制氦厂（到2013年为止为世界最大的氦提炼商）——曾向大气中排放二氧化碳废气，但如今它们已经建立了碳捕捉装置减少或消灭碳排放。


Moreover, nitrogen – a gas that can be vented without consequences – always coexists with helium.	此外，氮气——可以排放到大气中而不会产生后果的气体——也是氦气的伴生物。


Coincidentally, the initial discovery of abundant helium in the US in 1903 occurred at a dud gas well in Dexter, Kansas, which contained a gas mixture comprising more than 70% nitrogen and 1.84% helium.	巧的是，1903年美国首次发现大量氦气是在堪萨斯州德克斯特（Dexter）的一座废气气井中，该气井中的气体中70%多是氮气，1. 84%是氦气。


As helium prices rise, nitrogen-rich sources are becoming economical.	随着氦价格的上涨，富氮资源将变得有利可图。


But such small-scale schemes will be inadequate to meet escalating demand for helium in Asia.	但这些小打小闹无法满足亚洲爆发式增长的氦需求。


For that, firms should look to liquefied natural gas (LNG) – the precursor to shale gas – which enables the production of helium from natural gas containing just 0.04% helium.	对此，应该着眼于液化天然气——页岩气的先导——这种技术可以从氦气成分只占0. 04%的天然气中生产氦。


The first helium-producing LNG plant was commissioned in 1994 in Algeria.	���一个产氦的液化天然气厂于1994年在阿尔及利亚完工。


Qatar has one operating helium refinery, and another recently started up.	卡塔尔也有一座运转中的氦提炼厂，另有一家工厂最近刚刚上马。


Together, they should produce 25% of the world’s helium during 2014.	加在一起，它们将在2014年产出世界氦气总产量的25%。


Over the next ten years, the helium industry will undergo a fundamental transformation.	在未来十年中，氦产业将经历根本性转变。


With such Middle Eastern supplies – as well as major new supplies from Russia – dominating the global market, the US may begin to import helium.	在中东供应商——以及来自俄罗斯的新晋大型供应商——主宰全球市场的情况下，美国或许将开始进口氦。


Given that much of the helium supply will be channeled toward Asia, the European Union – which consumes more than 20% of the world’s commercially available helium – must act now to develop a helium policy that secures its future supply of this strategic commodity.	大部分氦供应输往亚洲，因此欧盟——它消费了世界商业氦资源的20%多——必须马上行动起来出台氦政策确保这一战略商品的未来供应。


Although high-tech industries in Europe depend on a steady supply of helium, the gas has received scant attention there.	尽管欧洲高科技产业依赖于稳定的氦供应，但氦气并没有在欧洲引起足够的关注。


In 2011, the United Kingdom, a center of MRI manufacturing, excluded helium from a parliamentary hearing on strategically important elements, because it was “outside of the scope of [the] inquiry.”	2011年MRI生产中心英国将氦排除在战略重要性元素的听证之外，因为它“没有进入调查范围”。


Meanwhile, more than half of Algeria’s helium molecules head north, unrecovered, in gas pipelines via Spain and Italy.	与此同时，一大半阿尔及利亚氦气在没有被分离的情况下向北通过输气管道输往西班牙和意大利。


Given the importance of Algeria to Europe as an alternative to Russian gas supplies, the EU should be focusing on developing its helium policy accordingly.	阿尔及利亚是欧洲除俄罗斯以外的重要天然气供应者，因此欧盟必须据此制定其氦政策。


Beyond Silicon Valley	硅谷之外


BERKELY – Once again, California’s Silicon Valley is confirming its status as a mecca of high-tech entrepreneurship and wealth creation.	伯克利—加州硅谷正在再次确认其高科技企业家精神和财富创造圣地的地位。


But it is not a model for job creation and inclusive growth that policymakers and entrepreneurs elsewhere can emulate – at least not without making some fundamental adjustments.	但这不是一个其他地方的决策者和企业家可以模仿的创造就业和包容性增长的模式——至少在做出一些根本性调整之前是如此。


To be sure, what is happening in Silicon Valley today is nothing short of dazzling.	平心而论，目前在硅谷所发生的事情可谓令人眼花缭乱。


Venture capital (VC) investment has reached near-record highs.	风险资本（VC）投资正处于接近历史记录的高峰。


Overnight millionaires – even billionaires – are proliferating.	一夜暴富——成为百万乃至亿万富翁——层出不穷。


Twenty-something software coders are commanding six-figure salaries.	二十来岁的软件代码编写员要求六位数的薪水。


The boom has driven California’s economic recovery.	这一繁荣推动了加州的经济复苏。


And, along with courageous political leadership, it has enabled the state to escape from a seemingly hopeless fiscal crisis.	并且，它与勇气十足的政治领导力一起，让加州摆脱了令人绝望的财政危机。


But the Silicon Valley superstar tech companies and their VC champions populate an isolated island of prosperity.	但硅谷的超级明星科技公司和顶尖VC是繁荣孤岛上的居民。


Indeed, just 100 miles inland, in California’s Central Valley, unemployment rates remain in the double digits (11.2% in Fresno and 10.4% in Modesto), with average family income amounting to less than half of that in Palo Alto, the heart of Silicon Valley.	事实上，距离硅谷不过100英里的加州中央山谷（Central Valley）失业率一直保持两位数（Fresno市为11. 2%，Modesto市为10.


If the venture capitalist Tim Draper had succeeded in his misguided initiative to divide California into six states, Silicon Valley would have become the richest state in the US, and the Central Valley the poorest.	4%），平均家庭收入还不到位于硅谷中心的帕洛阿尔托（Palo Alto）的一半。 如果风险资本家蒂姆·德拉珀（Tim Draper）将加利福尼亚分成六个州的错误计划成功，硅谷将是美国最富有的州，而中央山谷将是最贫穷的州。


The key question, then, is how to harness Silicon Valley’s entrepreneurial and innovative prowess to the goal of inclusive economic growth in America’s heartland.	因此，关键问题是引导硅谷的企业家和创新动力服务于美国中心地带的包容性经济增长。


To some extent, this is already happening, with visionary entrepreneurs in cities like Nashville, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Wichita, and Salt Lake City adapting Silicon Valley’s recipe for success to local conditions and opportunities – and creating much-needed middle-class jobs in the process.	从某种程度上说，这已经开始发生，纳什维尔、辛辛那提、新奥尔良、威奇托（Wichita）和盐湖城等城市中的有远见的企业家调整硅谷的成功秘诀以适应本地环境和机会——并在此过程中创造出急需的中产阶级工作岗位。


But more can and should be done to support this trend.	但我们可以也应该做更多事情支持这一趋势。


The University of Virginia’s Miller Center recently created a commission (of which one of us, Lenny, was a member) to identify strategies to support the creation of middle-class jobs through entrepreneurship.	弗吉尼亚大学米勒中心（Miller Center）最近成立了一个委员会（作者之一的伦尼也是成员之一）研究支持通过企业家精神创造中产阶级工作岗位的战略。


The ideas proposed in the commission’s report include providing training and mentors for prospective entrepreneurs and startups, creating “ecosystems” of supporting infrastructure, and reducing regulatory barriers.	委员会报告中提出的观点包括为潜在企业家和创业企业 提供培训和导师、营造支持基础设施的“生态系统”、减少监管壁垒等。


The report also highlights the importance of unlocking capital for “Main Street” entrepreneurs, who struggle to find the funding they need to launch, sustain, or scale up their operations, particularly as the recent recession drove out many of the community banks on which they had traditionally relied for credit.	报告还强调了解放资本服务“主街”企业家的重要性。 “主街”资本家很难找到启动、维持和扩大经营所需要的融资，特别是最近的衰退导致大量社区银行破产，而社区银行是他们的传统信用来源。


Silicon Valley startups, by contrast, enjoy the generous support of VC funds, having received 30-35% of all venture investment deployed in the US since the 1980s.	相反，硅谷创业企业享受着来自VC的慷慨资金支持，自20世纪80年代以来，美国风险投资总量的30—35%流向了硅谷。


Not only is VC investment concentrated in a small part of the country; it has recently tended to support the expansion of later-stage investments, rather than the launch of startups.	VC投资不但只集中于美国的一小部分地区； 它们的最新趋势是支持后续阶段投资扩张而不是发起创业企业。


In other words, VC funds are not well suited to support new businesses that may generate a large number of jobs and boost prosperity locally, but that are not close to launching a billion-dollar IPO.	换句话说，VC资金并不十分热衷支持可能带来大量本地就业岗位、刺激本地繁荣的新企业，而是热衷支持接近于启动数十亿美元IPO的企业。


Before the global economic crisis, entrepreneurs often relied on personal savings, credit cards, home equity loans, and investments by friends and family for start-up capital.	全球经济危机爆发前，企业家常常依靠个人储蓄、信用卡、住房净值抵押和亲朋好友投资作为启动资本。


Since 2008, however, few aspiring entrepreneurs have been able to borrow significant amounts of money from banks.	但是，2008年以来，很少有雄心勃勃的企业家能够从银行借到大笔资金。


And most people do not have wealthy relatives or classmates.	而大部分人都没有有钱的亲戚或同班同学。


Main Street entrepreneurs do, however, have two major – and underused – financing options.	但是，“主街”企业家有两个（利用不足的）融资选择。


The first lies in the public sector.	第一个选择存在于公共部门。


In the US, the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) – created to ensure that banks that gather deposits in low- or middle-income communities reinvest some of their earnings in those communities – supports more than $60 billion in community finance, compared to the $48 billion of VC funding that was deployed last year.	在美国，社区再投资法（Community Reinvestment Act，CRA，其订立是为了确保吸收中低收入社区存款的银行将一部分利润再投资于这些社区）提供了600多亿美元社区融资，而去年VC资金投资规模为480亿美元。


Though much of that reinvestment has traditionally been channeled toward housing, a growing number of investors and banks – including the Bay Area Equity Fund, Village Capital, and the Roberts Enterprise Development Fund – are investing CRA funds in entrepreneurs.	尽管传统上再投资中有很大一部分流入了住房领域，但越来越多的投资者和银行——包括Bay Area Equity Fund、Village Capital和Roberts Enterprise Development Fund——正在将CRA资金投向企业家。


Others – such as Bridges Ventures and Pacific Community Ventures – are using Community Development Financial Institutions and insurance-company balance sheets to expand the financing pool available to start-ups in disadvantaged communities.	其他机构——如Bridges Ventures和Pacific Community Ventures——正在利用社区发展金融研究所（Community Development Financial Institutions）和保险公司的资产负债表扩大欠发达社区创业企业的可用融资池。


A second key source of capital lies with private and community philanthropic foundations, which are required by US law to donate at least 5% of their assets to charitable causes annually.	第二个关键资本来源是私人和社区慈善基金会，根据美国法律，这些机构每年至少要将5%的资产用于慈善目的。


In 2012, such foundations distributed about $52 billion to support their philanthropic missions.	2012年，这些基金会大约提供了520亿美元用于慈善项目。


They channeled most of the rest of their $715 billion in assets into traditional investments, in order to generate returns that would expand their capital base.	它们的总资产规模为7,150亿美元，剩下的大部分都流入了传统投资项目，以创造回报扩大资本基础。


But a growing number of foundations – such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Kresge Foundation – are increasing the share of assets they direct toward investments that further their philanthropy.	但越来越多的基金会——如比尔和梅琳达•盖茨基金会、洛克菲勒基金会, 和 克雷斯基基金会（Kresge Foundation）——正在提高用于扩大慈善的投资的比例。


Such investments can help to accelerate impact investing, which aims to yield both a social and a financial return.	这些投资有助于加速影响投资——影响投资的目的是同时产生社会和财务回报。


Unfortunately, program-related spending still represents only 1% of capital deployed by foundations, with just 0.05% of that going toward equity investments.	不幸的是，与项目有关的支出仍只占基金会资本配置的1%，流向股权投资的部分更是只有0. 05%。


Public and philanthropic investments in local startup businesses are already paying off, both in terms of creating jobs and generating financial returns.	对地方创业企业的公共和慈善投资已开始取得回报，不管是从创造就业岗位角度还是从创造财务回报角度都是如此。


An early leader, the Bay Area Equity Fund, raised $75 million from banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and individuals; created about 15,000 jobs, 2,218 of which were in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods; and generated a 24.4% annual return for its investors.	早期领导者Bay Area Equity Fund从银行、退休基金和个人手中筹集到7,500万美元，创造了大约15,000个工作岗位，其中2,218个岗位位于低收入或中低收入社区，还给投资者带来24. 4%的年回报。


The government can do much to promote such investment.	政府能够做很多事情促进这类投资。


For starters, it should refine the rules governing which investments meet CRA requirements.	首先，政府硬干优化决定哪些投资符合RCA标准的规则。


Likewise, as the US taskforce on impact investing recommended, the authorities should clarify the permissible investment activity of tax-exempt foundations.	类似地，美国影响力投资专家小组建议当局应该明确规定哪些属于免税基金会允许进行的投资活动。


Just as Silicon Valley’s dynamism should not be diminished, the rest of the country’s entrepreneurial potential should not be underestimated.	正如硅谷的活力不应该削弱，美国其他地区的企业家潜力也不应该低估。


With the right incentives and funding from philanthropic sources, job-creating entrepreneurs could serve as engines of more inclusive growth in communities across the US.	如果有正确的激励和来自慈善资源的资金，创造就业岗位的企业就可以成为全美国各社区更具包容性的增长的引擎。


Entrepreneurship as a Diplomatic Tool	作为外交利器的创业精神


WASHINGTON, DC – Armenia and Turkey have long been at odds.	华盛顿——亚美尼亚和土耳其长期以来关系一直不睦。


Divided over a tragic past, the neighboring countries do not have diplomatic ties, and their border remains closed.	由于悲剧性往事所造成的分歧，这两个相邻国家并未建立外交关系，它们的边界仍然关闭着。


Despite this, in November 2014, a group of Turks traveled to Armenia for Startup Weekend, an event where aspiring entrepreneurs hone and pitch their ideas to investors and experts.	尽管如此，在2014年11月一群土耳其人到亚美尼亚参与创业周末活动，雄心勃勃的企业家在这里交流意见，并把他们的想法推介给投资者和专家。


In mixed teams, young Armenians and Turks worked together to build new ventures.	在这里，年轻的亚美尼亚人和土耳其人共同合作创建新的合资企业。


“We weren’t focused on being Armenian or Turkish – just on being the best,” a Turkish participant noted.	“我们不会在意是亚美尼亚人还是土耳其人——只会在意是不是最好的，”一位土耳其与会者这样说。


That sentiment is exactly what the people who backed the trip – diplomats from the United States and the European Union – had hoped to achieve.	支持这次活动的美国及欧盟外交官恰恰希望达到这样的效果。


For decades they have struggled to find common ground for Armenians and Turks to begin a dialogue.	几十年来，他们一直在努力寻找亚美尼亚人和土耳其人的共同点，以便让他们能够开始对话。


The common personality types, values, and single-minded focus of entrepreneurs created an opening.	创业者共同的人格类型、价值观和对事务一心一意的专注创造了很好的切入点。


Entrepreneurship has become a catalyst for progress in similarly thorny situations worldwide.	创业精神能够催化全世界处于同样棘手境地的国家取得进步。


The focus on job and wealth creation has become a “talking point” upon which nearly all governments can agree – or at least find little with which to disagree.	关注就业和财富创造已成为几乎所有政府都能一致同意的“谈话焦点”——至少也不存在多少能造成分歧的地方。


That has made it a handy tool for a new form of diplomacy.	它也因此成为一种得心应手的新形式外交工具。


Whether in Africa, Asia, Latin America, or the Middle East, entrepreneurship has improved individual capability, capacity, and connectivity.	无论在非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲还是中东，创业都提升了个人能力、资质及交流。


It has stimulated not only economic activity but also social mobility.	创业不仅刺激了经济活动，而且实现了社会流动。


An emphasis on entrepreneurship stands the traditional foreign-aid paradigm on its head, because it is based on the assumption that the engine of development is local talent, a class of people – equally distributed throughout the world – with the capacity to innovate and commercialize their innovations.	强调创业精神颠覆了传统的外交援助模式，因为它假设有能力创新并推进成果商品化的当地人才（即均匀分布在世界各地的特定阶层民众）才是真正的发展引擎。


In Africa, mobile money platforms such as M-Pesa in Kenya and Paga in Nigeria have solved a key problem for millions in their respective countries and across several continents: the lack of financial services.	在非��，像肯尼亚的M-Pesa和尼日利亚的Paga 这样的移动支付平台已经解决了其本国和横跨若干大陆的成百上千万人所面临的关键问题：那就是缺少金融服务。


Through a simple text message, anyone with a cellular handset is able to send and receive money.	通过一条简单的短信，任何有便携式手机的人都可以发送和接收资金。


That has helped move money.	这在极大程度上强化了资金的流动。


More importantly, it has given millions of individuals an opportunity to start their own businesses.	更重要的是，成百上千万人因此有机会开创属于自己的事业。


Unlocking human creativity and ingenuity is lifting millions out of poverty and helping improve national infrastructure.	释放人类创造力及聪明才智正在帮助成百上千万人摆脱贫困，并协助改善国家的基础设施。


As fossil fuels contribute to global warming, entrepreneurs in Asia, Latin America, and Europe are pioneering a variety of alternative energy solutions.	由于化石燃料导致全球变暖，亚洲、拉美和欧洲的创业者正积极开拓一系列替代能源方案。


Startups such as Optima Energia in Mexico are harnessing wind, sun, and biofuels to offer sustainable and scalable energy options.	像墨西哥Optima Energia这样的创业企业正在利用风能、太阳能和生物燃料来提供可持续及可扩展的能源解决方案。


“An entrepreneur is a person with the vision to see a new product or process and the ability to make it happen,” writes Steven Koltai in his forthcoming book, Peace Through Entrepreneurship.	“有眼光看到新产品或新工艺并有能力将其变为现实的人才能称之为创业者，”斯蒂芬·科尔泰在他即将出版的新著《通过创业精神实现和平》中如是说。


A former US State Department official who set up the Global Entrepreneurship Program (GEP) in 2009, Koltai describes entrepreneurship as a “job-creating machine.”	曾担任美国国务院官员并于2009年创建全球创业计划（GEP）的科尔泰将创业描绘成“创造就业的机器”。


It is the difference between opening a restaurant and reimagining what the experience of eating could be like.	或许开餐馆和重新定义美食体验能够揭示创业和就业之间的不同。


Entrepreneurs create new things that in turn create consumer demand for those things.	创业者创造全新的事物，而这些新事物反过来又能创造消费者对它们的需求。