Of course, the Clinton campaign isn’t just being charitable by helping down-ballot candidates.	当然，克林顿阵营帮助下级候选人绝不仅仅是慈善。


Her administration will be far better off with more Democrats in Congress.	如果在国会中有更多民主党，她的政府日子会好过得多。


The Democrats are still widely expected to retake the Senate, though not the House, where they would need to flip an unlikely 30 Republican seats.	目前，人们仍广泛认为民主党将重新入主参议院——尽管众议院仍无法撼动，因为他们需要掀翻30个共和党席位，这是无法完成的任务。


(Most House seats are gerrymandered, with district boundaries manipulated to benefit the incumbent party.)	（大部分众议院席位选区划分不公平，选区边界的划定被人为操纵，有利于在任党。


But even if the Democrats do regain a majority in the 100-member Senate, Republicans will still be able to hold the threat of a filibuster – which requires 60 votes to break – over Clinton’s legislative proposals and nominations to the executive branch and Supreme Court.	）但即使民主党果真重新赢得有100个席位的参议院的多数，共和党仍能够保持对克林顿的立法提案和最高法院执行庭提名的冗长演讲（filibuster）威胁——这需要60票才能打破。


There’s another important reason for the Clinton campaign and its high-profile surrogates to help down-ballot Democrats. Both parties want to strengthen their hold on as many state-level offices as possible, because the party that controls a state’s governorship and at least one of its legislative chamber gets to oversee how congressional districts are drawn (which happens every ten years).	克林顿阵营及其高调代理人阵容要帮助下级民主党的另一个重要原因是，两党都希望加强对尽可能多的州级位置的掌控，因为控制一州执政地位和至少一个立法机关的党能够左右国会选区如何划定（每十年重划一次）。


How districts are drawn affects the partisan makeup of the House, and therefore the fate of federal legislation.	选区如何划定影响着众议院的党派构成，从而影响联邦立法的命运。


(Only the Senate votes on presidential nominations.)	（只有参议院可以进行总统提名人投票。 ）


The states are also where the parties can build their bench of potential future federal officeholders.	州也是各党培养未来总统候选人的地方。


The Republicans figured out the importance of state-level politics long before the Democrats, and they have built a much stronger foundation in the states than the Democrats have.	共和党认识到州级政治的重要性远早于民主党，并且建立起比民主党更强的州级基础。


For example, even though Obama carried Ohio in the last two elections, its current congressional delegation is 75% Republican.	比如，尽管奥巴马在过去两次大选中都赢得了俄亥俄州，但该州最新一届国会代表中有75%是共和党。


The US election is now a volatile affair.	目前，美国大选是一宗摇摆事件。


No one knows what might pop up next to shake up the race, but it is sensible to assume that something will.	没人知道还会出什么“幺蛾子”影响选情，但假设总会出现“幺蛾子”是明智的。


At the very least, the WikiLeaks disclosures will presumably continue, though, despite being somewhat embarrassing to the Clintons, they haven’t revealed corruption by the Clinton Foundation or improprieties in how Hillary Clinton conducted policy as Secretary of State.	至少，维基解密的披露很有可能还会继续，尽管克林顿因此而受到一些尴尬，但克林顿基金会的腐败或克林顿担任国务卿期间有何不当行为仍未揭露。


By the time Comey sent his letter, several million Americans had already cast their ballots.	科米致信国会时，数百万美国人已经投出了他们的选票。


We cannot know how the various disclosures will affect turnout between now and Election Day.	我们无法知道，从现在到选举日，各种各样的揭露会如何影响结果。


What we do know is that, ultimately, nothing that has or might happen makes Trump better suited for the presidency than Clinton.	我们知道的是，说到底，已经发生或可能发生的一切都不能证明特朗普比克林顿更适合当总统。


The Chimera of Stock-Market Short-Termism	关于证券市场短期主义的迷思


CAMBRIDGE – An often-heard refrain, increasingly voiced in US politics, is that corporate America is excessively influenced by short-term stock-market considerations.	发自剑桥——在美国，人们——尤其是政界人士——经常会抱怨美国企业受到了短期股票市场因素的过度影响。


While the US presidential election is not particularly focused on policy at the moment, the campaign will soon end, at which point people will govern and policies will be adopted.	虽然现阶段的美国总统选举进程并不特别侧重于政策，但随着选战迅速落幕，必将有人开始执政并实施各类政策。


Given that both Republicans and Democrats have criticized short-termism, it is possible that some of those policies might aim to address it.	鉴于共和党人和民主党人都对这种短期主义表示批评，所以或许会制定其中一些政策中来解决这一问题。


They are unlikely to make any difference.	在这一点上双方都不会有什么分歧。


Not only has the problem of short-termism been woefully exaggerated, but the policy proposals for addressing it are severely lacking.	然而不仅短期主义的程度遭到了严重夸大，应对这个问题的政策建议也极为匮乏。


Consider Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s proposal – which Vice President Joe Biden has endorsed – to use the capital gains tax to encourage shareowners to hold on to their stock for a longer time.	例如民主党总统候选人希拉里·克林顿就提议——副总统拜登也对此表示支持——运用资本利得税来鼓励股东更长久地持有手中的股票。


The idea is that when shareowners furiously trade their stock, corporate executives feel pressed to ensure high earnings every quarter, so that the share price does not fall.	该提议的逻辑是如果股东频繁买卖自身的股票，企业高管就被迫要在每季度都实现高收益，以确保股价不会下降。


Investment in, say, research and development, despite its long-term benefits, can induce shareowners to sell, punishing the company with a declining stock price.	而投资于研究和开发的举措虽然能获取长期利益，但却会诱发股东出售股票，公司也会因股价下跌而蒙受损失。


Today, the lower capital gains rate is available on shareholder profits made when selling stock held for one year or more.	依据目前的资本利得税政策，只要股东能持股长达一年或更长时间，就能以更优惠的比率来缴交利得税。


Clinton and her advisors hope, instead, to tax capital gains at ordinary rates for stock held for up to two years, after which the rate would decline by four percentage points per year until, after several years, it reached the current long-term rate, which tops out for wealthy investors at 20%.	而克林顿和她的顾问团则希望对持有两年以内的股票执行正常税率，此后每持有多一年下调4个百分点，直到几年后最终与目前的长期持有税率看齐——针对那些投资大户的长期持有税率最高为20%。


If stockholders know that holding a company’s stock will eventually allow them to benefit from a lower tax rate, the argument goes, they will be more willing to withstand a drop in that company’s quarterly earnings.	这一观点认为，如果股东知道长期持有一家公司的股票最终会令他们受益于较低税率，自然也就更乐意接受该公司季度收益下滑的状况。


With greater scope for longer-term thinking, executives would make decisions that have a long-term payoff, even if they are costly today.	企业高管们也拥有了发挥更长期性思维的空间，并因此做出能获取长期回报的决策——即使这些决策在短期内耗资巨大。


The plan certainly sounds reasonable.	整个方案听起来相当合理。


The problem is that a falling tax rate for capital gains will not stop most stockholders from trading; at most, it will impel some of them trade less often.	但问题是资本利得税率的下降并不会阻止大多数股东实施交易； 最多只会让其中一些人买卖不那么频繁。


Executives will still have to worry about the price that traders accord to their stock.	企业的高管们也依然会担心交易者喊出的股价。


Of course, curtailing the velocity of trading may have other effects, both good and bad.	当然，减少交易频率还可能产生其他或好或坏的影响。


If too many resources and too much brainpower are now devoted to finding slight underpricing or overpricing of stock, Clinton’s program might be a good thing, as it would help to reallocate those resources.	如果有太多的资源和太多的人力被投入到了筛选那些股价只是稍微低估或高估了的股票上，希拉里的计划可能是一件好事，因为它将有助于重新分配这些资源。


If, however, less trading makes markets more volatile and unpredictable, taxing short-termism could turn out to be a cure worse than the disease.	但如果因交易量减少而使市场变得更加不稳定及不可测，那么对短期主义征税可能无异于饮鸠止渴。


In any case, Clinton’s program will not achieve its stated goal of inducing those doing the trading, and thus setting stock prices, to take a longer-term perspective.	在任何情况下，希拉里的计划都无法实现其诱导那些左右股价的交易者采取长期性策略的目标。


Nor will it make corporate executives less concerned about the next quarter’s results.	也无力安抚公司高管，让他们不至于对关心下一季度的业绩如此神经过敏。


Prices will, after all, still be going up and down.	最终股价还是照常升跌。


There is another reason the proposal will not be effective: many of the largest shareowners are institutions that don’t pay tax anyway, such as pension funds and foundations.	此外还有另一个该计划无法凑效的原因：许多最大的股东都是无需缴税的机构，比如养老基金和基金会。


And many other stockholders buy and sell within a year, even though it means paying the full tax rate.	即使它意味着支付全额税率，其他许多股东还是会在一年内买卖。


Their decision-making time horizon will not be affected by a long phase-in of the more advantageous tax rate.	他们的决策时间框架不会受到漫长降临的更有利税率的影响。


But the fact that Clinton’s plan will not achieve its goal is not exactly the end of the world.	但希拉里方案不能实现其目标的事实并不意味着这个问题就没法解决了。


Contrary to widespead belief, stock-market-induced short-termism is probably not much of an economic handicap anyway. There is considerable (though not conclusive) evidence that it is not nearly as widespread – or as problematic – as many think.	与大众的认知相反，股市诱发的短期主义可能并不算是一个经济阻碍因素，也有相当多（虽然不是决定性的）证据表明它并不像许多人认为的那样普遍——或者有危险性。


Consider this: four of the ten biggest companies in the United States today, measured by stock-market capitalization, are Amazon, Apple, Alphabet (Google), and Microsoft. None of them can be accused of failing to invest in R&D or other long-term, sometimes even visionary, projects.	以当前美国股市总市值前十大公司中的四家——亚马逊，苹果，Alphabet（谷歌）和微软���—为例，试问谁能指责它们没有投资于研发或其他长期，有时甚至极富远见的项目？


And the stock market supports all of them well.	股票市场对它们给予了大力支持。


If they can do it, others can – and surely do.	如果它们能得到，别人也可以——而且肯定会得到。


Simply put, ending short-termism has turned into a bigger political issue than it deserves to be.	简而言之，终结短期主义已经变成一个比其本身更大的政治问题。


It is a cause that resonates widely not because short-termism is hampering the economy, but because saying that it is justifies protecting those with a stake in the status quo – well-paid employees; CEOs and senior managers; and board directors – from rapid change.	它之所以引起了广泛回响，原因不仅是因为短期主义阻碍了经济，而是因为它保护了那些受益于现状的人——收入丰厚的职员； CEO和高级经理；


The bottom line is that there are bigger, more pressing problems to address.	重点在于我们有更大，更迫切的问题亟待解决。


And, even if short-termism were a major problem, Clinton’s tax proposal would not resolve it.	而且，即使短期主义是一个主要问题，希拉里的税务提案也无济于事。


The good news here is that the plan is not particularly high on Clinton’s agenda, leaving a chance that she might not feel compelled to implement it when elected.	好消息是这个提案在希拉里的议程中并不是特别优先，令她并不急于在当选后当即实施。


Clintonomics vs. Trumponomics	克林顿经济学 vs 特朗普经济学


STANFORD – Little more than two months from America’s presidential election, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by five points in opinion polls, nationally and in several important swing states.	斯坦福—距离美国总统选举只有两个月了，希拉里·克林顿在全国和几个重要摇摆州民调中领先唐纳德·特朗普五个点。


But nothing is decided yet, especially given the Trump campaign’s staffing shakeup and major policy speeches, not to mention the email scandals that continue to plague the Clinton campaign, including recently released email correspondence between top staff from the Clinton Foundation and officials from the State Department under Clinton.	但大局尚未确定，特别是考虑到特朗普阵营的人事改组和重大政策演讲，更不用说电子邮件丑闻仍在继续困扰克林顿阵营，包括最近曝光的克林顿基金会顶层工作人员与克林顿领导下的国务院官员之间的电子邮件往来。


So far, the media and public have focused on immigration, terrorism, foreign policy, and each candidate’s potentially problematic personality traits, but far less has been said about economic policy.	目前，媒体和公众的注意力集中在移民、恐怖主义、外交政策和每个候选人各自的潜在性格缺陷上，而很少关注经济政策。


This is a serious oversight, because there are substantial differences between the candidates’ economic-policy platforms.	这是一项严重的疏忽，因为两位候选人的经济政策平台大相径庭。


First, consider government spending.	首先我们来看看政府支出。


Clinton favors welfare-state expenditures such as expanded Social Security benefits (the unfunded liabilities of which already exceed the national debt), free tuition at public colleges and student-loan debt relief, as well as an added “public option” to the 2010 Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare.	克林顿支持福利国家支持，如扩大社会安全福利（该项福利已经成为规模超国民债务的资金短缺的负债项）、公立大学免学费和学生贷款债务减负，以及给2010年平价医疗法（即奥巴马医保）新增一项“公共选项”。


She also says she will double down on President Barack Obama’s costly green-energy industrial policy, which favors some energy sources, and even specific companies, at the expense of others.	她还说将把奥巴马总统花费甚巨的绿色能源产业政策扩大一倍，该政策向某些能源资源甚至具体的公司倾斜，而对其他人不利。


By contrast, Trump says he will leave Social Security as is, repeal and replace Obamacare, and make government spending more efficient and effective (though here he has not been specific).	反之，特朗普说他不会动社会安全，将废除奥巴马医保用新政策取而代之，并提高政府支出的效率和效果（尽管他并没有提出具体做法）。


On taxation, Clinton says she will make the US tax system more progressive, even though it is already the most progressive system among the advanced economies.	在税收方面，克林顿说她将增加美国税收制度的累进性，即使美国税收制度已经是发达经济体中累进程度最高的。


Specifically, Clinton calls for increases to the estate tax and the personal tax rate for the highest earners – which also affects small businesses – and caps on itemized deductions.	具体而言，克林顿希望增加房地产税和最高收入群体的个人税率——这也将影响到小企业——并设置分项扣税上限。


She shows little inclination to lower corporate taxes.	她对降低公司税没有表现出多少兴趣。


Trump is proposing lower tax rates for individuals and US companies.	特朗普提出为个人和美国公司降低税率。


The US currently has a federal corporate tax rate of 35%, the highest in the OECD.	目前美国联邦公司税率为35%，是经合组织中最高的。


Trump is calling for it to be lowered to a below-average 15%, with first-year business investments to be deductible in full.	特朗普希望将它降低到比15%的平均水平更低，商业投资第一年可以全部抵扣税收。


On trade, Clinton has flip-flopped to oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multinational trade deal negotiated by the Obama administration and 11 other Pacific Rim countries.	在贸易方面，克林顿的态度发生了大幅转变，她现在反对奥巴马政府与其他11个环太平洋国家谈成的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系协议。


Unlike her husband, who supported and signed free-trade agreements during his presidency, Clinton is inching closer to the protectionist wing of the Democratic Party.	与她的丈夫不同——比尔·克林顿在总统任上支持并签署了多项自由贸易协定——克林顿正在逐渐转向民主党中的保护主义阵营。


Clinton’s trade position has little to recommend it, but Trump’s is even worse.	克林顿的贸易立场没有什么两点，但特朗普更加糟糕。


Among other things, Trump has threatened a trade war with China and Mexico, and says he would renegotiate America’s existing trade agreements.	特朗普威胁对中国和墨西哥开展贸易战，并说他要重新谈判美国现有贸易协定。


Clinton and Trump are understandably giving voice to lower- and middle-class workers who have been left behind by globalization.	不难理解，克林顿和特朗普的这些话是对被全球化甩开的中低收入工人阶级说的。


But the best policy response is not to embrace protectionism (which would leave many more people worse off), but to assist displaced workers better.	但最佳政策反应不是采取保护主义（这将导致更多人境况变得更加糟糕），而是更好地帮助失业工人。


Lastly, Clinton and Trump differ on deficit spending and the national debt.	最后，克林顿与特朗普在赤字支出和国民债务等问题上也存在分歧。


Clinton’s Social Security expansion and other spending, and her plans to entrench the Obamacare health-care system further, without reining in future entitlement costs – which are projected to soar – suggest that large deficits would only continue during her presidency.	克林顿的社会安全扩张和其他支出，以及她进一步扩大奥巴马医保制度的计划——而不遏���预计将飙升的未来福利成本——意味着庞大的赤字将在她当选总统后继续攀升。


That’s a far cry from her husband’s record: Bill Clinton worked with a Republican-controlled Congress to balance the budget in the final years of his presidency.	这与她丈夫的记录南辕北辙：比尔·克林顿与共和党控制的国会在其总统任期的最后几年实现了预算平衡。


Trump recently reduced the budget cost of his proposed tax reductions to bring them more in line with Republican legislators’ own targets.	特朗普最近降低了他所提出的减税计划的预算成本，使之与共和党立法者自身的目标更加一致。


If properly scored to account for increased tax revenue from economic growth, he would still need to pair his tax cuts with controls on spending, and especially on entitlements.	即使合理地估计了来自经济增长的税收收入增量，他仍然需要通过控制支出，特别是福利支出与其减税计划匹配。


Otherwise, a Trump presidency could also have serious debt problems.	否则，特朗普的总统生涯将出现严重的债务问题。


One proposal the candidates agree on is massive infrastructure spending.	两位候选人形成一致的一个方案是大规模基础设施支出。


Unfortunately, while a portion of this is appropriate for the federal government, neither candidate has ensured that money wouldn’t be misspent through politicization or cronyism.	不幸的是，尽管由联邦政府承担部分开支合情合理，但两位候选人都不能确保这笔钱因为政治化或裙带关系而浪费。


The United States does not need a repeat of the Obama administration’s “shovel-ready” stimulus-spending boondoggle.	美国不需要重复奥巴马政府的“万事俱备”的刺激支出无用功。


All told, Clinton would prioritize redistribution above economic growth, while Trump is more growth-oriented.	总而言之，克林顿重视再分配甚于经济增长，而特朗普更重视增长。


American growth is a global concern because it fuels growth elsewhere through US consumer demand and trade.	美国的增长是一个全球性问题，因为它能通过美国消费需求和贸易推动其他地区的增长。


But the two primary sources of growth, productivity gains and labor inputs (such as total man-hours worked), have both fallen off sharply in recent years.	但增长的两大主要源泉——生产率改进和劳动力投入（如总工时数）——近几年来均显著下降。


The US economy grew at an average annual rate of 3% during the decades after World War II, but it has not had even three consecutive quarters of 3% growth during the past decade.	二战后的几十年中，美国经济平均年增长率为3%，但在过去十年，增长率从未连续三个季度超过3%。


There are different explanations for slowing productivity growth.	对于生产率增长的放缓，存在不同的解释。


Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon singles out technological innovation for contributing less to economic growth than did previous breakthroughs such as electricity, locomotion, aviation, and computing.	西北大学经济学家罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）提出技术创新对经济增长的贡献已步入此前的技术突破（如电力、动力、航空和计算）。


Harvard University economist Lawrence Summers points to “secular stagnation,” a term coined by the economist Alvin Hansen in the 1930s to describe long-term tepid demand and insufficient opportunity for profitable investment.	哈佛大学经济学家劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）认为原因是“长期停滞”，这个词的始作俑者是20世纪30年代的阿尔文·汉森（Alvin Hansen），用来描述长期的需求萎靡和有利可图的投资机会不足。


My own opinion is that poor economic policy has discouraged business investment, entrepreneurship, and work.	我本人的观点是糟糕的经济政策阻碍了商业投资、企业家精神和工作。


Polling shows that undecided voters deeply distrust both candidates.	民调表明，尚未作出决定的选民对两位候选人都非常不信任。


To get elected and actually have the mandate to enact her agenda, Clinton will need to be more transparent and honest about past mistakes.	要想当选并真正拥有实施日程的权力，克林顿必须对过去的错误更加透明、更加坦诚。


And on economic policy, she should move to the center, toward growth-focused measures, and away from leftist positions she adopted during her primary campaign against Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.	在经济政策方面，她应该走中间道路，支持以增长为重点的措施，远离她在与佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）的党内初选中所采取的左派立场。


Trump, for his part, will need to show some humility and inclusiveness, and be open to advice from others on issues where he lacks experience.	至于特朗普，他需要表现出一些人道精神和包容性，并在他缺少经验的问题上对他人的建议持更加开放的态度。


While the Republicans are in a tight battle with the Democrats to retain control over the Senate, they are likely to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives.	共和党正在与民主党进行保持参议院控制权的激烈斗争，但在众议院，他们有望继续保持多数。


As a result, on many policy issues, all eyes will be on House Speaker Paul Ryan, who would likely operate either as a counterbalance – and occasional partner – to Clinton, or as a guide and more regular partner for Trump.	因此，在许多政策问题上，所有人的目光都集中在众议长保罗·莱恩（Paul Ryan）身上，他可能成为制衡克林顿的力量——有时候与克林顿合作，也可能为特朗普指引方向，成为他的经常性伙伴。


Clipping the Euro’s Wings	剪断欧元的羽翼


French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s call for the European Central Bank to intervene to curtail the soaring euro is commonly seen as a sign that he neither understands nor trusts markets.	法国总统萨尔科奇呼吁欧洲中央银行采取干预措施来抑制飞扬的欧元，这通常被视为他既不理解也不信任市场。 确实，现在有人把萨尔科奇看作是传统戴高乐派人物。


Indeed, some now view Sarkozy as a traditional Gaullist who wants to help French producers by artificially devaluing the euro.	这些人想要通过人为地让欧元贬值来帮助法国的制造商。


But could Sarkozy be right in believing that currency markets do not automatically drive exchange rates to levels consistent with the fundamentals of international trade?	但是，萨尔科奇相信货币市场并不自动地将汇率改变到与国际贸易基本面相符的水平之上，这会不会是有道理的呢？


After all, comparable goods often sell internationally at very different prices.	毕竟，在国际上可比产品销售的价格是不同的。


For example, according to  The Economist , a Big Mac hamburger sells in the euro zone for about three euros – roughly $4 at the current exchange rate – but for only about $3.20 in the United States, implying that the euro is overvalued by about 25%.	例如，根据经济学人杂志报导，麦当劳巨无霸汉堡包在欧元区的售价是大约三欧元，根据目前的汇率大致为四美元，但是在美国只有大约3. 2美元。


It is clear from the last three decades of floating currencies that market-determined exchange rates tend to swing widely and persistently from parity levels that would make comparable goods sell at comparable prices in different countries.	从过去三十年货币浮动可以清除地看出，由市场决定的汇率趋向于长期大幅摇摆游离于让可比商品在不同国家以可比价格销售的同位水平。


So politicians like Sarkozy may have grounds to argue that central banks should intervene to limit such swings.	因此像萨尔科奇那样的政坛人物可能会有理由争辩说中央银行应当采取干预措施来限制这样的摇摆浮动。


But economists, including many central bank staff, usually do not see things this way.	但是，包括许多中央银行职员在内的经济学家们通常并不苟同。


Despite wide and persistent swings in actual currency markets, their so-called “rational expectations models” predict that exchange rates should not deviate from parity in any lasting way.	尽管在实际货币市场上长期大幅摇摆不定，他们所谓的“理性预期模式”预计，汇率不应该永久地脱离于同位水平。


Believing that they have found a way to model precisely how currency traders should think about the future, they see no need for intervention because, save for temporary deviations, markets always get currency values right.	他们相信他们找到了用模式方法精确预估货币交易者如何考虑以后的情形，因此他们就认为没有干预的必要，因为，除了暂时的脱离，市场总是合理决定了各种货币价值。


In contrast, “behavioral economists” acknowledge that currencies can depart from parity for a protracted period, but argue that this results not from traders’ attempts to interpret movements in macroeconomic fundamentals, but from market psychology and irrational trading.	与此相反，“行为学派经济学家们”认为，某些货币可能会在较长的一段时间里脱离同位水平，但是他们认为这并非由于交易者们试图解释宏观经济基本面的变动情况，而是由于市场心理和非理性的交易。


For them, intervention is not so much unnecessary as it is impossible.	对于他们而言，干预与其说没有必要，不如说不可能。


Faced with wide swings, central banks are helpless to counteract traders’ irrational zeal to bid a currency further away from historical benchmark levels.	面对大幅波动，中央银行对于抵消交易者们争购某一种货币、进一步脱离其历史基准水平的非理性狂热无能为力。


After all, speculative flows account for more than 95% of the $2 trillion traded daily in currency markets.	毕竟，投机性货币流动占据货币市场上每天两兆美元交易的95%。


But both the “rational expectations” and the “behavioral” models are fundamentally flawed for the purpose of assessing policy interventions.	但是，“理性预期”和“行为学派”两种模式在评估政策干预上都存在根本性的缺陷。


As different as they might appear, they attempt to generate exact predictions of human behavior, whether “rational” or “irrational.”	这两者看起来大相径庭，它们都试图对人类行为作出精确的预计，而无论是“理性”还是“非理性”。


Both disregard the fact that rationality depends as much on individuals’ imperfect understandings of history and society as on their motivation.	两者都不考虑到这一事实，即理性既取决于个人对于历史和社会不完善的理解，也取决于他们的动机。


They also ignore the importance for market outcomes of individual creativity and unforeseeable socio-political change.	他们还忽略了个人创造性所带来的市场结果以及不可预计的社会政治变化。


Once this “imperfect knowledge” is placed at the heart of economic analysis, the implications of our inherently limited ability to predict market outcomes become clear.	一旦经济分析认真考虑这一“不完善的知识”，我们预估市场结果的内在有限能力的后果也就变得清晰了。


When it comes to currency markets, parity levels based on international trade are merely one of many factors that traders may consider.	在货币市场上，基于国际贸易的同位水平只不过是交易者们考虑的众多因素之一。


In attempting to cope with imperfect knowledge, they are not irrational when they pay attention to other macroeconomic fundamentals and thereby bid an exchange rate away from its parity level.	为了试图应付不完善的知识，他们在关注其他宏观经济基本面的时候并不丢失理性，因而争购某一种货币脱离其同位水平。


The euro’s recent rise against the dollar is a case in point: by most accounts, euro bulls have been reacting to the enormous US current account deficit, a surging euro-zone economy, and rising euro interest rates.	欧元近来相对美元升值就是一个例证。 在大多数情形下，欧元的大幅升值是对美国巨额经常项目赤字、欧元区经济高涨以及欧元区利率上升等情况的反应。


What is irrational about factoring in such fundamentals when trading a currency?	在交易某种货币之时，考虑这样的基本面哪里有非理性呢？


Of course, persistent swings from parity do not last forever.	当然，长久性的脱离同位并不能长久。


While movements in macroeconomic fundamentals may lead bulls to bid the value of a currency further above parity, they simultaneously become more concerned about a counter-movement back to parity – and thus capital losses – which moderates their desire to increase their long positions.	宏观经济基本面的变动可能会将某一种货币价值争购到进一步高于同位水准，他们同时更为关切返回同位的反方向变动、进而是资本损失，这就温和了他们的欲望，增加长期持有。


This concept of risk builds on a neglected insight of John Maynard Keynes, who was keenly aware of the centrality of imperfect knowledge for understanding price fluctuations in asset markets.	这一风险概念建立在被人忽略的凯恩斯的洞察之上。 凯恩斯十分清楚理解资本市场价格波动的不完善知识的中心地位。


Moreover, relating the riskiness of holding an open position in a currency market to the exchange rate’s divergence from parity levels suggests a novel way to think about how central banks can influence the market to limit departures from parity.	而且，将在某一货币市场持有多头的风险与汇率偏离同位水平联系在一起表明了思考中央银行如何影响市场来限制偏离同位。


Every month, the central bank should announce its estimate of a  range of parity values, backed by analysis, which, unlike a precise value, reflects the inherent imperfection of knowledge concerning a currency’s parity.	每个月，中央银行都根据分析公布其对同位价值的范围估计。 与精确价值不同的是，它反映的是有关某一货币同位固有的不完善知识。


As the exchange rate moves away from this range, the central bank’s regular announcements would heighten the concern of currency traders that other traders will consider it increasingly risky to hold open positions.	在汇率偏离其范围之时，中央银行定期公布将会提高货币交易者们的顾虑，也就是其他交易者将会认为持仓越发具有风险。


This should moderate their willingness to do so, thereby limiting the magnitude of the currency swing.	这就会降低他们这样做的意愿，从而限制货币波动的幅度。


This strategy does  not imply that central banks should attempt to confine the exchange rate to a pre-specified target zone.	这一战略并不意味着中央银行应当试图把汇率限制到预先确定的指标范围之内。


Given the enormous size of daily volumes in currency markets, such attempts almost always fail, leading to currency crises.	鉴于货币市场上每日的巨大交易量，这样的企图几乎肯定失败，从而导致货币危机。


Instead, the “ limit-the-swings”  strategy proposed here implies that, as the exchange rate moves further away from parity, central banks should use their reserves to intervene at unpredictable moments in order to reinforce the effect of their regular announcements of the parity range on traders’ perception of increased risk of capital losses.	相反，在本文中提议的“限制波动”策略意味着，在汇率进一步偏离同位水平的时候，中央银行应当使用它们的储备出其不意地进行干预，以便加强其定期公布同位范围对于交易者更大感受资本损失的效果。


Our proposal to reduce – but not eliminate – swings from parity recognizes that price fluctuations may be crucial for markets to ascertain the price of assets that promise an uncertain payoff.	我们提议减低而非消除偏离同位的波动认为，价格波动对于市场确定保证不确定回报的资产价格而言是关键的。


But currency swings, if too wide and protracted, can impede real economic activity, which is why intervention is sometimes necessary.	但是货币波动如果过于巨大和持续就会阻碍实际经济活动。 这也就是为何干预有时是必要的。


Only by explicitly acknowledging the limits to economists’ and policymakers’ knowledge would such policies have a chance of succeeding.	只有通过公开承认经济学家和决策者的知识有限方能使得这样的政策有机会成功。


Closing Asia’s Security Gap	缩小亚洲的安全差距


TOKYO – There was little surprise in President Barack Obama’s announcement late last year that the United States will strengthen its position in East Asia while drawing down its forces in Europe.	发自东京——美国总统奥巴马在去年年末宣布美国将在缩减欧洲驻军的同时强化自身在东亚的地位，此举并不令人感到意外。


After all, the security environment in East Asia is unpredictable and rapidly changing, unlike in Europe, where it is relatively stable.	毕竟东亚的安全环境与相对稳定的欧洲不同，处于一种既不可预测又迅速变化的状态。


Against this background, efforts now underway to establish a comprehensive multilateral framework for the region can learn from the recent history of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).	而在这个大背景下，人们可以从欧洲安全与合作组织（Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe，简称欧安组织）最近的历史中有所借鉴，为该区域营造一个综合性多边框架。


The US is not alone in shifting its security focus to East Asia.	把安全焦点转向东亚的可不仅仅是美国一家。


Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to host Russia’s first Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Vladivostok in September reflects his country’s growing interest in the region.	俄罗斯总统普京即将于今年9月在海参崴首次主办亚太经合组织会议的决定也反映了该国对该区域的兴趣不断增加。


And, like the US, Russia attended last November’s East Asia Summit (EAS).	同时跟美国一样，俄罗斯也参加了上届东亚峰会。


The EAS, along with the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) ministerial meetings last July, made important contributions to improving the region’s security environment.	东亚论坛以及去年7月召开的东盟区域论坛部长级会议都对本区域安全环境的改善做出了重要贡献。


The ARF’s effort to build a more predictable and constructive pattern of relations for the Asia-Pacific region is based on three stages: confidence-building, preventive diplomacy, and conflict resolution.	其中部长级会议为构建一个更具可预见性和建设性的亚太地区关系模式所做出的努力基于三个阶段：信心构建，预防性外交和冲突解决。


At its 18th ministerial conference last year, ARF entered the second phase, preventive diplomacy, while continuing to strengthen confidence-building measures.	在去年的18届部长级会议上已经进入了预防性外交的第二阶段，同时也继续在信心构建措施方面不断强化。


Maritime cooperation was a focus of attention at both the ARF ministerial meeting and at the EAS, not least because China’s activities in the South and East China Seas have generated fresh uncertainty in the region.	海洋合作也是上届东盟区域论坛部长级会议和东亚峰会的焦点，尤其是在中国在东海和南海地区的活动已经催生了新不确定性的情况下。


The ARF welcomed the adoption of “Guidelines for Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.”	部长级会议欢迎各方对《落实<南海各方行为宣言>指导方针》的批准通过。


Likewise, the EAS focused on combating “sea piracy, search and rescue at sea, marine environment, maritime security, maritime connectivity, freedom of navigation, fisheries, and other areas of cooperation.”	同样，东亚峰会则将注意力集中在“打击海盗、海上搜救、海洋环境保护、通航、航海自由，渔业以及其他合作领域”


Both meetings also focused on disaster management, with the ARF ministers reaching a common understanding on furthering regional cooperation.	两场会议也都将焦点放在灾难应对方面，参加东盟区域论坛的各国部长们也在进一步区域合作方面达成了共识。


The ASEAN Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance in Jakarta is expected to play a central role in building a disaster-related information network across the region, and in developing concrete measures for disaster management.	位于雅加达的东盟人道主义援助协调中心将在建立一个与该区域灾难相关的信息网络方面扮演核心角色，并为针对各类灾害研究出一些切实的应对方案。


Similarly, many of the countries attending the EAS stressed the need for response capabilities, such as emergency disaster relief.	同样，参加东亚峰会的许多国家都强调了灾害反应能力的必要性，比如紧急灾害援助。


Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced his country’s readiness to host an international conference this summer on major disasters, giving Japan an opportunity to share lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami.	日本首相野田佳彦就宣布已经准备好今夏在本国主办一场关于主要灾害的国际会议，为日本提供一个分享2011年日本东北太平洋海啸地震中所吸取教训的机会。


The aim must be to make the region more resilient to natural disasters as part of a broader framework for regional cooperation.	其目的必须是令到该区域在遭遇自然灾害时具备更加强大的适应和复原能力，并成为一个更宏大区域合作框架的一部分。


The rapid changes occurring in the Asia-Pacific region demand policies to maximize growth opportunities while minimizing risks.	亚太地区所发生的急速变化需要既能将增长机会最大化又能尽量减少风险的政策。


That is why Koichiro Gemba, Japan’s foreign minister, has proposed new “open and multilayered networks” with other Asia-Pacific countries.	这也是日本外相玄叶光一郎提出与各国建立新的“开放及多层次网络”的原因。


“Multilayered” means multinational cooperation on various activities that can be promoted through bilateral, trilateral, or multilateral mechanisms.	“多层次”意味着可以通过双边，三边或者多边机制推动针对各类行动的多国合作。


Work within the ARF and EAS frameworks is already aligned with this concept, and Japan is pursuing its own trilateral dialogues with China and the Republic of Korea, as well as with the US and Australia.	在东盟区域论坛或者东亚峰会框架内的工作已经与这一理念相契合，而日本正在寻求分别与中国和韩国，美国和澳大利亚展开三方对话。


Japan believes that these networks must be open to all of the Asia-Pacific region’s countries, as their establishment requires China’s full participation.	日本相信这些网络必须对亚太区所有国家开放，因为它们的建立需要中国的全力参与。


But the rule needed to form the foundation of such a network must obviously adhere to international law, and the ARF meeting’s final declaration clearly reflected this concern.	但构建这样一个网络的基础所需的规则很显然必须遵循国际法，而东盟区域论坛会议的最终声明也清晰地反映了这一理念。


This is where lessons from the OSCE’s experience are relevant to Asia’s budding efforts to establish a regional architecture.	这也正是欧安组织的经验教训与亚洲尝试建立一个区域性架构的相关之处。


In particular, despite the significant socioeconomic and political differences between the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, the OSCE’s confidence- and security-building measures are worthy of careful consideration.	尤其是尽管亚太和欧洲之间存在着极大的社会经济和政治差异，欧安组织的信心与安全构建措施也值得深入思考。


Such measures aim to reduce the risk of conflict by increasing trust among participating OSCE states, and by contributing to greater transparency in the field of military planning and other activities.	这些措施致力于通过增加欧安组织成员国之间互信以及在军事部署和其他行动方面增加透明度的方式来减少冲突的风险。


The Vienna Document, which is the key to understanding these OSCE efforts, obliges annual exchanges of information on existing military forces, the structure of armed forces, and major weapons and defense systems. It also requires annual information exchanges on defense planning and budgets.	而作为理解这些欧安组织行为的关键的《维也纳文件》（Vienna Document）也规定各成员国之间必须每年交换关于现有军事力量，兵力组成结构，主要武器和防务系统的相关信息，同时还要求每年在国防方略和军费方面进行沟通。


Adoption of such measures in the Asia-Pacific region would do much to promote confidence and trust among Asian countries.	在亚太地区实施这些措施可以大大提升亚洲国家之间的信心和互信。


A few steps in this direction have already been taken within the ARF framework, including the publication for more than a decade of an Annual Security Outlook based on contributions from ARF countries.	而朝着这个方面的一些步骤已经在东盟区域论坛的框架下得到了推进，包括近十几年来每年都利用成员国所提供的信息发布《年度安全展望》。


In 2010, ARF ministers widened the Outlook’s scope with the Simplified Standardized Format, which includes publication of national defense doctrines, defense expenditure, and the total number of personnel in a country’s armed forces.	在2010年，参加东盟区域论坛的部长们利用一个简化的标准格式扩大了展望的范围，���中包括公布国家国防方针，国防支出以及各国武装部队总兵力。


There have been two main approaches to meeting modern regional-security challenges: traditional alliances of the NATO type, which prepare for any potential threat to members, and comprehensive multilateral frameworks of the OSCE type, which include all relevant players within a region.	有两种主要方法来应对现代区域安全的挑战：其一是北约式的传统结盟制，为应对针对盟国的任何潜在威胁做准备； 其二是欧安组织式的综合性多边框架，将一个区域内所有相关的参与者都涵盖在内。


As Europe’s post-1945 history clearly shows, traditional alliances and a comprehensive multilateral framework can be complementary, and are essential to maintaining regional peace and stability.	而欧洲二战后的历史也明白地告诉我们，传统结盟制和综合性多边框架可以是互为补充的，也是维持区域和平稳定的必要条件。


Now the Asia-Pacific region is witnessing efforts to establish a similar comprehensive and multilateral framework through the ARF and the EAS.	如今亚太区正见证着一个在东盟区域论坛和东亚峰会框架下建立类似综合性和多边框架的努力。


But, however successful such efforts may be, they will enhance, not lessen, the importance of existing bilateral relationships, such as the Japan-US alliance.	但无论这些努力究竟会取得何种成功，它们必将提升——而不是减弱——现有双边关系的重要性，比如美日同盟。


The Slow March to Gender Parity	通往性别平等的缓慢长征


BERKELEY – Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, recently warned that the world risks a new “mediocre normal” of slower growth.	伯克利——国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德不久前发出警告：增长放缓的“平庸常态”正摆在世人面前。


She is not alone in her concern.	有此担心的还不止她一人。


Economic policymakers around the world are looking for ways to boost growth, with infrastructure investment topping most lists.	世界各国经济决策者正寻找各种方法来刺激增长，其中最常见的是投资基础设施。


But, as Lagarde regularly reminds her audiences, another, often-overlooked remedy is to increase the economic participation and advancement of women.	但拉加德时常提醒听众，还有一种补救方法往往为人所忽视，那就是改善妇女的经济参与度和晋升空间。


Women account for half of the global labor supply and about 70% of the world’s consumption demand.	女性占全球劳动力的一半、世界消费需求的70%。


Yet there remains a long way to go in realizing their economic potential, as the World Economic Forum’s just-released Global Gender Gap Report 2014 confirms.	但世界经济论坛刚刚发布的2014年全球性别差距报告证实，还要做很多工作才能释放她们的经济潜能。


In many countries, both developed and developing, men and women are at or near parity when it comes to education and health, according to the report, which covers 142 countries and 94% of the world’s population.	该报告统计了142个国家和94%的世界人口，显示在很多发达国家和发展中国家，男性和女性在教育和医疗卫生领域已经或接近实现平等。


But, as the attack on the heroic Pakistani schoolgirl and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Malala Yousafzai demonstrated, girls and women are still blocked from education in many places, sometimes through violence.	但英勇的巴基斯坦女学生和诺贝尔和平奖得主马拉拉·优素福扎伊遭袭事件表明，某些地方仍不许女童和女人接受教育，甚至不惜为此而诉诸暴力。


Moreover, in terms of economic participation and opportunity, women continue to lag behind men by a considerable 15-25% even in the most gender-equal societies.	此外，在经济参与度和机会领域，女性持续落后男性15-25%，甚至在两性最为平等的社会也同样如此。


Globally, only about half of working-age women are employed, and they earn three-quarters as much as men, even when they have the same level of education and are in the same occupation.	全球范围内，只有半数工作适龄女性受雇工作，而且即使她们的教育程度和所从事职业与男性相同，其所获薪酬也只相当于男性的四分之三。


Meanwhile, women are over-represented in informal, temporary, and part-time jobs, most of which are low-productivity positions with low pay, no benefits, and limited opportunities for advancement.	此外，女性过多从事非正式、临时和兼职工作，其中大部分岗位低效率、低工资、无福利，且晋升机会有限。


Based on the rate of progress over the last nine years, it will take another 81 years to close the world’s economic gender gap and unlock the associated economic benefits.	依据过去9年的进步速度，弥合世界性别差距并释放相关经济利益还需要81年。


By one estimate, women hold about 24% of top management positions globally, with comparable figures across regions and development levels.	据估算女性占全球高层管理职位的约24%，不同地区和发展水平的数据都差不多。


A recent study by the Credit Suisse Research Institute (CSRI) of 3,000 companies in diverse sectors and countries, however, yields a more depressing conclusion: women occupy only about 13% of top management positions (CEOs and people who report directly to them), on average, with even the highest rate, in North America, amounting to only 15%.	但瑞信研究院（CSRI）最近公布的对不同行业和国家3，000家企业的一项研究结果更令人沮丧：女性平均仅占高层管理职位（首席执行官及其直接下属）的约13%，就连数据最高的北美地区也仅占15%。


Women’s participation, moreover, is skewed toward positions in less influential areas like shared services, in which opportunities for promotion to top positions are limited.	此外，女性参与偏向于公共服务等影响力较小的领域，这些职位晋升到高层的机会有限。


And, though female participation on company boards has increased in almost every country and sector over the last three years, with the largest gains occurring in countries that have introduced quotas, women hold only about 12.7% of board positions, on average.	并且，虽然女性进入公司董事会的比例过去三年内在几乎所有国家和行业都有所增加（提升速度最快的是已经实施配额制度的国家），但平均来看仅有12. 7%的董事职位为女性占据。


The gender gap does not hurt only women; it hurts everyone.	性别差距不仅伤害女性； 而是伤害所有人。


Healthy, educated women are more likely to have healthier and more educated children, creating a virtuous circle of development.	受过教育的健康女性更有可能培养出受过教育的健康子女，进而创造出良性的发展周期。


WEF data suggest a strong correlation between a country’s progress in closing the gender gap – particularly in education and the labor force – and its economic competitiveness.	世界经济论坛的数据表明国家弥合两性差距（特别在教育和劳动力领域）与其经济竞争力之间存在极强的相关性。


The business case for women in leadership is strong.	女性有充分的商业理由担任领导职务。


Companies with more women in top management and board positions better reflect the profiles of their customers and employees, benefit from more diverse views when solving problems, rank higher on indicators of organizational cooperation and health, and report higher profitability and returns on equity.	聘请更多女性担任高管和董事的企业更贴近客户和员工、解决问题时观点更多样、机构合作与健康指数更高、盈利能力和净资产收益率也更出众。


Furthermore, the CSRI study indicates higher returns on equity, higher valuations, and higher payout ratios, with no discernible differences in risk-taking.	此外，瑞信研究院研究结果还上述企业显示净资产收益率、估值和派息率较高，而风险偏好方面并没有显著差异。


Realizing the economic potential of women requires changes in policies, business practices, and attitudes.	发掘女性的经济潜能需要改变政策、商业惯例和态度。


Developed countries should invest in affordable child care, early childhood education, and parental leave; shift from family to individual taxes; and provide more generous tax credits, benefits, and protections for low-wage and part-time workers.	发达国家应投资提供廉价托儿服务、发展早期幼儿教育并规定育儿假； 放弃家庭税而改收个税；


In developing countries, legal reforms that give women equal rights in land ownership, inheritance, and access to credit are essential.	并为低收入兼职劳动者提供更优惠的税收减免和福利保障。 发展中国家赋予女性在土地所有权、继承权和信贷权等领域平等权利的法律改革至关重要。


Businesses can commit to gender parity by taking several concrete steps.	企业应采取具体措施实现性别平等的目标。 他们可以设定招聘和聘用女员工的人数；


They can set targets for recruitment and retention levels; initiate affirmative searches to meet those targets; introduce mentorship programs and diversity training to attract, retain, and promote women; and establish transparent salary bands to help track and reduce gender pay gaps.	推出导师计划及多元化培训来吸引、聘用和晋升女性员工； 并设定透明的薪金级别以跟踪并缩小男女之间的工资鸿沟。


At the same time, human-resource practices should take account of unconscious biases, risks of stereotyping, and documented gender differences in behavior.	与此同时，人力资源实务应认真考虑无意识偏见、成见和有明确记录的两性行为差异等问题。


For example, research finds that women tend to be less confident and less likely to negotiate for pay raises and promotions than equally qualified men.	比方说，研究表明女性与同等资质的男性相比不太自信，也不太容易谈判加薪和升职等类似问题。


Companies can also use their influence with suppliers, distributors, and partners to support women-owned businesses and encourage gender-neutral advertising.	企业还可以运用自身的供应商、分销商和伙伴关系来支持女性开办的企业，并鼓励无性别歧视的广告内容。


And companies can change how jobs are structured and remunerated to enhance flexibility, thereby helping both men and women balance work and family demands.	企业可以改革岗位结构及报酬来增强灵活性，进而帮助男性和女性平衡工作及家庭需求。


Gender gaps in economic participation and opportunity for women vary significantly across regions.	女性经济参与和机会中的性别差距随地区的不同而变化。


The WEF’s findings show that the Middle East and North Africa suffer from the widest gender gap, with women reaching only 40% of parity in the workplace, on average, compared with nearly 80% in North America.	世界经济论坛调查结果显示中东和北非性别差距最大，女性在工作场所平均平等率仅有40%，而北美地区则接近80%。


Indeed, the overall gap has widened in Jordan and Tunisia.	事实上，约旦和突尼斯的总体差距甚至有所扩大。


Even so, there are positive trends.	即便如此也存在着积极的势头。


Over the last nine years, Saudi Arabia has reduced its economic gender gap, relative to its starting point, more than any other country.	过去9年来，沙特阿拉伯与开始时相比已缩小了经济领域的性别差距，并在这一领域领先于其他任何国家。


Lagarde challenges policymakers and business leaders alike to make changes that broaden economic participation and opportunity for women.	拉加德敦促决策者和企业领袖推进扩大女性经济参与和机会的改革。


The economic gains from doing so are significant.	这样做的经济利益非常显著。


In the words of Klaus Schwab, the WEF’s founder, “Only those economies which have full access to all their talent will remain competitive and will prosper.	用世界经济论坛创始人克劳斯·施瓦布的话讲，“只有释放其全部人才能力的经济体才能保持竞争优势，实现持续繁荣。


But, even more important, gender equality is a matter of justice.”	但更重要的是，性别平等事关公正。 ”


It would be difficult to identify more compelling reasons to accelerate progress toward gender parity.	很难再找到更令人信服的理由来推动朝着性别平等的进步。


The Immorality of Coal	煤炭的不道德性


SYDNEY – Momentum seems to be building for a global deal at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris this December.	悉尼—在12月的巴黎联合国气候变化会议上形成全球协议的势头似乎正在形成。


With this sense of optimism comes a keen awareness that the use of fossil fuels must be phased out globally as rapidly as possible.	与这一乐观的感觉一同到来的是人们开始认识到化石燃料必须尽快在全球范围内停用。


Indeed, the idea that greenhouse-gas emissions should be reduced to zero by 2050 is gaining wider acceptance.	事实上， 到2050年将温室气体排放量减少到零的想法正在被人日益接受。


Early movers are already shaking things up.	早期行动者已经开始造成不同。


Universities, pension funds, churches, banks, and even the heirs to the Rockefeller oil fortune are pulling their money out of fossil-fuel assets or are considering the possibility of divestment – an option made increasingly attractive by the swiftly falling cost of renewable energy.	大学、养老基金、教会、银行乃至洛克菲勒石油财富的继承人都在将资金抽离化石燃料资产或考虑改变投资方向的可能性——随着可再生能源成本的迅速降低，这一选择也变得日益诱人。


In the face of this progress, though, one sector stands apart.	尽管取得了这些进步，但有一个部门仍然迟迟没有动作。


The coal industry seems determined to fight for profits at the expense of the global environment.	煤炭业似乎铁了心要赚钱而不顾全球环境。


Perversely, it is furiously attempting to capture the moral high ground by claiming that coal is essential to ending energy poverty.	该行业宣称煤炭对于结束能源贫困来说至关重要，以此顽固地试图占据道德高点。


Coal companies and their allies argue that limiting coal production would keep the lights off in rural communities by preventing poor countries from building big, cheap power plants.	煤炭公司及其盟友指出，限制煤炭产量将使贫穷国家无法建设大型廉价发电站，导致农村地区无法使用电灯。


“Let's have no demonization of coal," as one ally, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, put it. “Coal is good for humanity."	“我们不要妖魔化煤炭，"煤炭业盟友之一、澳大利亚总理阿伯特 如是说，“煤炭对人类有好处。


Speaking at an event hosted by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a think tank that is skeptical of climate change, the United Kingdom's former environment secretary, Owen Paterson, accused climate-change activists of having “African blood" on their hands.	"在全球变暖政策基金会（Global Warming Policy Foundation，质疑气候变化的智库机构）主办的一次活动中，英国前环境大臣欧文·帕特森（Owen Patterson）指责气候变化活动家双手沾满了“非洲的血液"。


Setting aside the deeply offensive character of such efforts to silence its critics, the coal industry is posing a false choice: end the use of coal or end poverty.	姑且不谈这些试图平息批评的言论的巨大的冒犯性，煤炭业正在营造一个错误的选择：结束使用煤炭还是结束贫困。


But, though energy is indeed central to efforts to end poverty, one must be clear: at this point in history, coal is not good for anyone.	但是，尽管能源确实是结束贫困的核心手段，但有一点必须澄清：在历史的现阶段，煤炭对所有人都没有好处。


Consider this: for all of the attention the Ebola virus has received in recent months, coal is a far deadlier killer.	考虑以下事实：近几个月来，埃博拉病毒吸引了巨大的关注，但煤炭是比埃博拉凶险得多的杀手。


Toxic fly ash kills some 800,000 people per year and sickens millions more.	有毒煤炭粉尘 每年要夺走800,000人的生命，导致数百万人生病。


Beijing's ongoing battle with smog – a problem that has become known as the “airpocalypse" – provides a potent reminder of coal's impact on air quality.	北京正在进行的治霾之战——这一问题被称为“空气启示录"——强有力地证明了煤炭对空气质量的影响。


But China's capital is hardly unique in that respect.	但在这方面中国首都绝不是一个人在战斗。


Many Indian cities have air pollution that is just as bad – and in some cases far worse.	许多印度城市空气污染与北京差不多，有的甚至远远过之。


Coal is also the single largest contributor to climate change, which threatens to put 400 million people in the poorest countries at risk of severe food and water shortages by 2050.	煤炭也是气候变化最大的单一因素，到2050年，煤炭的使用可能导致 4亿最贫困国家人口面临严重的粮食和水短缺。


The coal industry is seeking to burden developing countries with the same unsustainable growth model that has brought the earth to the brink of climate disaster.	煤炭业正在试图让发展中国家背上让地球站在气候灾难边缘的不可持续增长模式。


As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has repeatedly warned – and as the experience of countries like the Marshall Islands increasingly demonstrates – climate change is no longer a distant threat.	气候变化政府间委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）一再警告—— 马绍尔群岛等国家的经验也一再证明——气候变化早已不是遥远的威胁。


The terrible consequences of burning fossil fuels are already upon us, and those suffering the most are the world's poor.	燃烧化石燃料的可怕后果已开始缠上我们，而受影响最大的正是穷人。


Most people understand that coal is a dirty business, one that countries like Australia should abandon for their own economic wellbeing, as well as for the sake of the global climate.	大部分人都明白煤炭是一个肮脏的行业，为了自身经济福祉，也为了全球气候，澳大利亚等国家应该放弃这一行业。


That is why we are witnessing such resistance from the industry.	这也是我们看到对该行业抵制如此巨大的原因。


Coal's day is over, but it is trying desperately to hang on.	煤炭时代已经过去了，但它还死命做着困兽之斗。


The world needs a rapid and fair transition away from dirty energy sources.	世界需要快速而公平地远离肮脏能源资源。


That means cleaning up developed economies and working to prevent the massive expansion of industries that damage our collective health and future.	这意味着清理发达经济体并致力于防止伤害我们的集体健康和未来的行业的大幅扩张。


It also means working with developing countries to help them develop modern, clean energy sources that provide cheap, locally produced power, and do not oblige them to buy fossil fuels.	这也意味着与发展中国家合作帮助它们开发现代清洁能源资源以提供廉价的地方生产电力，更不能强迫它们购买化石燃料。


Above all, it means that we must stop telling the poor in developing countries what they should do and start listening to what they want.	最重要的是，这意味着我们必须停止告诉发展中国家的穷人他们应该做什么，而应该倾听他们要什么。


And what they want – unfortunately for the coal industry – is clean, affordable energy that powers their present, without costing them their future.	他们要的是——对煤炭业来说，这是个不行的消息——清洁、廉价的能源，让他们能够在不破坏未来的情况下现在就获得电力。


Coke Is It in Europe	欧洲的可卡因问题


European leaders need to get serious about Europe’s cocaine problem.	欧洲的领导人们需要严肃对待欧洲的可卡因问题。


The “white lady” is seducing a steadily growing number of Europeans, and remaining in a state of denial will only worsen the consequences.	正有越来越多的欧洲人拜倒在这位“白夫人”的魅惑之下，继续否认这种情况只会产生更严重的后果。


Cocaine used to be America’s problem, to the point that the United States started a major campaign against sellers and consumers of crack cocaine in the inner cities, drug traffickers, and suppliers in the Andes.	可卡因曾经是美国的问题，直到美国在城市里开始了针对其贩卖者和消费者的攻坚战，受打击的对象还有安第斯山区的运毒者和供应商。


But now demand for cocaine in most of the world is stable or dropping.	但现在全世界大多数地方对可卡因的需求平稳或呈下降之势。


Coca cultivation has been slashed by a quarter in the past five years, and seizures of cocaine have almost doubled.	在过去五年里，古柯的种植被削减了四分之一，而可卡因的查获量几乎翻了一番。


An impressive 42% of all of the world’s cocaine was seized in 2005.	2005年全世界42%的可卡因都被查获，着实战绩斐然。


Only Europe is bucking the trend.	只有欧洲在逆流而行。


Cocaine use is on the rise, especially in Spain, Great Britain, and Italy.	可卡因的使用呈上升之势，特别在西班牙、英国和意大利。


There is plenty of anecdotal evidence indicating traces of cocaine found on bank notes and in water supplies.	有许多非正式的证据表明在纸钞和供水中都发现了可卡因的踪迹。


Here are some harder facts.	还有更严酷的事实。


For the first time, the level of cocaine use in Spain – 3% of the population aged 15 to 64 – now exceeds that in the US.	西班牙的可卡因使用度—占该国15至64岁人口的3%--首次超过了美国。


And the United Kingdom is not far behind.	英国也不甘落后。 在2005年，有2.


In 2005, 2.4% of the UK population used cocaine at least once, up sharply from 0.6% a decade earlier.	4%的英国人至少吸食过一次可卡因，比十年前的0. 6%有大幅上升。


Consider another telling indicator.	再看看另一个颇具说明性的指标。


Ten years ago, 20% of all new clients entering treatment for drug abuse in the Netherlands were addicted to cocaine.	十年前，荷兰20%首次接受脱毒治疗的人是可卡因上瘾。


Now it is 40%.	而现在这一比例达40%。


In Spain, the proportion has soared to 42% in 2002, from just 7% in 1995 – and it has no doubt risen again since then.	在西班牙，这一比例从1995年的仅7%攀升到2002年的42%--而自那以后肯定还在上升。


Europe’s growing cocaine problem is due to several factors.	欧洲日趋严重的可卡因问题背后有几个重要因素。


First, drug users in Europe are switching to cocaine from heroin.	首先，欧洲的吸毒者正从消费海洛因转而吸食可卡因。 可卡因的流行是因为它的吸引力：白色，不是暗色；


Cocaine is fashionable because it is attractive: white, not dark; sniffed, not injected; consumed in a living room or a fashionable night-club, not in a dark alley.	吸食，不用注射； 能在起居室或时尚的夜店中消费，而不用屈身穷街陋巷。


It is seen as a drug for winners, not losers.	它被看作是胜利者的毒品而不是失败者的毒品。


To many it is a symbol of success, until they end up in a hospital or treatment center.	对许多人来说直到身体受损住院或接受戒毒治疗之前，它都是成功的象征。


Cocaine use by high-profile entertainers, executives, models, and socialites who flaunt their illicit drug habit certainly does not help.	演艺大腕、公司主管、模特和刻意炫耀这一违法习惯的社交名流使用可卡因当然是在推波助澜。


Nor does uncritical reporting by the media.	媒体对此不加批判的报道也有误导之嫌。


It seems many Europeans need to be reminded that cocaine is highly addictive and harmful.	看起来许多欧洲人都需要被提醒一下：可卡因是种高成瘾性和危害性的毒品。


That is why it is a controlled substance.	这也就是它为什么是受控物质的原因。


While addicts may be in denial, thinking that they can control their “recreational use,” cocaine, to quote the famous song by J.J. Cale, “she don’t lie.”	尽管隐君子们可能会否认，认为自己能够控制“娱乐式的吸食”，但可卡因，引用J. J.


Second, too many governments – particularly in rich countries – fail to invest political capital in preventing and treating drug abuse.	其次，许多国家的政府—特别是富国的政府—没能投入足够的政治资本来防止和 处理滥用毒品。


They are ill equipped to deal with the problem, so their societies have the drug problem they deserve.	他们没有足够的资源来应对这个问题，所以它们社会发生的毒品问题是自食其果。


This raises a basic credibility issue: how can Europe urge Colombia and Peru to reduce supply when its own drug habit is driving cultivation?	这就提出了一个基本可信度的问题：欧洲怎么能在自身的毒瘾驱动（古柯）种植的情况下敦促哥伦比亚和秘鲁减少供应量呢？


The solution is to attack the problem at its source by addressing both supply and demand.	解决之道是在问题的源头着手从供需两方面双管齐下。


Coca crops in Latin America need to be replaced with agricultural crops, and cocaine use in affluent Europe must be reduced.	拉丁美洲的古柯种植需要用农作物来代替。 可卡因在富裕的欧洲的消费量必须降低。


Solving the cocaine problem is a shared responsibility.	解决可卡因问题是一个共同的责任。


On the supply side, there must be more support for poor farmers in drug-producing countries to give them viable alternatives to growing coca.	在供应方面，必须对毒品生产国的贫困农民提供支持，给予他们种植古柯之外的其它可行的替代方案。


Most illicit coca growers are extremely poor.	大多数非法的古柯种植者都是极为贫困的。


Crop eradication will not work over the long term if there is no legal economy to replace drugs.	如果没有合法的经济作物来替代毒品，那么长期来看铲除古柯种植的成效不会显著。


Drug control and development assistance must therefore go hand in hand.	毒品控制和发展援助必须齐头并进。


Environmental protection is also at issue.	环境保护也是一个问题。


Coca farmers and producers slash and burn forests, polluting streams with toxic chemicals and damaging fragile ecosystems.	古柯种植者和生产者砍伐并烧毁森林，用有毒化学物质污染水流并破坏脆弱的生态系统。


The Andean region has less than 1% of the world’s land area, but more than 15% of its plant life.	安第斯地区只有全世界1%的土地，但却拥有世界上15%的植物。


Vast areas of vegetation are being destroyed for lines of white powder.	大面积的植被正被破坏以便生产这种白色粉末。


At a time of growing concern about climate change, Europeans should be made aware of the long-term destruction done to a precious and fragile habitat for the sake of a short-term high.	在我们日益关注气候变化的今天，欧洲人应该更加清楚地认识到这种为了短时间的快感而对宝贵且脆弱的生态环境造成的长期毁坏。


But controlling supply is not enough.	但控制供应是不够的。


If all of Colombia’s farmers stopped growing coca tomorrow, unrestrained demand by the world’s 13 million cocaine users would quickly generate as much cultivation somewhere else.	如果哥伦比亚的农民明天就停止种植古柯，那么全世界1300万可卡因吸食者不受限制的需求很快就能在其它的什么地方刺激并恢复古柯的种植。


Clearly, the ultimate challenge is to prevent drug abuse and to treat and rehabilitate drug users successfully.	显然，终极的挑战是防止滥用毒品并成功地治疗并改造其使用者。


Sweden is a good example of how to do it right.	瑞典在这方面是一个成功的典范。


Drug use there is a third of the European average – the result of decades of consistent policies (irrespective of changes in government) that combine tough punishment of dealers and comprehensive treatment for users.	该国的毒品使用量只有欧洲平均水平的三分之一—这是实行几十年严惩毒贩与为吸毒者提供综合脱毒治疗的连续政策（不论政府如何更替）的成果。


The more that can be done to prevent people from becoming cocaine addicts, the less damage these people will do to themselves and their families, the less money will get into the pockets of criminals, insurgents, and terrorists, and the less damage will be done to the environment.	我们在防止人们对可卡因上瘾方面做得越多，这些人对他们自身以及他们家庭所造成的危害就越小，流进犯罪分子、叛乱分子和恐怖分子口袋里的钱就越少，对环境的破坏也就越小。


But nothing will be done until Europe wakes up and faces its pandemic.	但除非欧洲彻底清醒并面对自身的毒品瘟疫，否则它就会无所作为。


Cold War Lessons for George W. Bush	冷战经验布什可资汲取


President Bush recently drew an analogy between the current struggle against violent jihadi terrorism and the Cold War.	布什总统最近把当前反对暴力化的圣战恐怖主义斗争同冷战相提并论。


He is right in one respect: waves of terrorism tend to be generational.	在一个方面他是正确的，那就是恐怖主义之潮是跨越年代的。


Unfortunately, like the Cold War, the current “war on terror” is likely to be a matter of decades, not years.	不幸的是，像冷战一样，当前的“反恐战争”恐怕不是几年，而是几十年才能结束的。


But Bush missed another lesson implicit in his analogy: the importance of using the soft power of culture.	但是，布什在他的比喻当中错过了一个隐含的经验，那就是使用文化的柔性力量的重要性。


The Cold War was won by a combination of military power, which deterred Soviet aggression, and the attractive power of Western culture and ideas.	冷战是通过威慑苏联侵略的军事力量以及引人入胜的西方文化和观念的力量相结合而赢得的。


When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, hammers and bulldozers, not artillery, brought it down.	当1989年柏林墙倒塌时，是锤子和推土机，而非弹药将它推倒。


Unfortunately, Bush has not learned this lesson.	不幸的是，布什并未汲取这一经验。


Academic and scientific exchanges during the Cold War played a significant role in enhancing American soft power.	冷战期间的学术和科技交流在提升美国的柔性力量上发挥了重要作用。


While some American skeptics feared that Soviet scientists and KGB agents would steal American technology, they failed to notice that the visitors vacuumed up political ideas alongside scientific secrets.	一些美国的怀疑论派者担心苏联科学家和克格勃间谍会盗取美国技术，但是他们却并没有注意到，苏联的访客们将科学机密连同政治观念一道吸纳进去。


Many of these scientists became leading proponents of human rights and liberalization inside the USSR.	这些科学家中的许多人成为苏联主要的人权和自由化鼓吹者。


Some 50,000 Soviets – writers, journalists, officials, musicians, dancers, athletes, and academics – visited the United States between 1958 and 1988.	1958年到1985年期间，大约5万名苏联作家、记者、官员、音乐家、舞蹈家、运动员和学者访问了美国。


Aleksandr Yakovlev was strongly influenced by his studies at Columbia University in 1958.	亚利山大·亚科夫列夫1958年在哥伦比亚大学进修期间深受影响。


Yakovlev went on to become a Politburo member and key liberalizing influence on Mikhail Gorbachev.	他后来成为政治局委员和对米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫施加自由化影响的关键人物。


Oleg Kalugin, who became a high KGB official, said in looking back from the vantage point of 1997, “Exchanges were a Trojan Horse for the Soviet Union.	后来成为克格勃高官的奥列格·卡留金在1997年回忆说：“交流成为苏联的特洛伊木马，在侵蚀苏联制度上发挥了重要作用。


They played a tremendous role in the erosion of the Soviet system….They kept infecting more and more people over the years.”	多年来，交流影响了越来越多的人。


Yet today, the Bush administration oversees a cumbersome visa program that has cut the number of such exchanges, particularly with Muslim countries.	”但是今天，布什当局却实施烦琐的签证制度，削减了此类交流，特别是同穆斯林国家交流的数量。


Popular culture was also important during the Cold War.	冷战期间，大众流行文化也很重要。


Many intellectuals disdain popular culture because of its crude commercialism.	由于其商业主义浓厚，许多知识分子对此不屑一顾。


But such scorn is misplaced, because popular entertainment often contains subtle images and messages about individualism, consumer choice, and other values that have important political effects.	但是，这种鄙视却不得要领，因为大众娱乐时常包含有关个性、消费者选择以及其他具有重要政治影响的价值观念的图象和信息。


American films, for example, include sex, violence, and materialism, but that is not the whole story.	例如，美国电影包含性、暴力以及物质主义，但这并非美国电影的全部内容。


They also portray American life as open, mobile, individualistic, anti-establishment, pluralist, populist, and free.	它们还展现开放、流动、个性、反对权势、多样性以及自由的美国生活。


As the poet Carl Sandburg put it in 1961: “What, Hollywood’s more important than Harvard?	正如诗人卡尔·桑博格在1962年所说的那样：“什么？ 好莱坞比哈佛大学还重要？


The answer is, not as clean as Harvard, but nevertheless, further reaching.”	回答是：不像哈佛那样干净，但更引人入胜。 ”


The line between information and entertainment has never been as sharp as some intellectuals imagine, and it is becoming increasingly blurred.	信息和娱乐的区别从来没有像一些知识分子所想象得那样明晰，而且区别正在变得模糊。


Some popular music lyrics can have political effects.	一些流行音乐歌词可以含有政治影响。


Cultural messages can also be conveyed by the way that sports teams or stars conduct themselves, or in the multiple images purveyed by television or cinema.	文化信息也可以像体育队伍或明星一样，或者由电视或电影传播的多种多样的图象来传播。


Pictures often convey values more powerfully than words.	图象往往比文字更为有力地传播价值观念。


Even the consumption of fast food can make an implicit statement.	甚至连消费快餐也可以有隐含的表现。


As one Indian family described their visit to McDonald’s, it was stepping out for “a slice of America.”	正如一个印度人家庭描述他们吃麦当劳一样，他们是为了品尝“美国生活的只鳞片爪”而去的。


Although the Soviet Union restricted and censored Western films, those that made it through had devastating political effects.	尽管苏联限制和审查西方电影，但是那些通过了审查的电影具有毁灭性的政治影响力。


As one Soviet journalist commented after a restricted showing of films that were critical of American nuclear weapons policies, “They absolutely shocked us….We began to understand that the same thing would happen to us as to them in a nuclear war.”	正如一位苏联记者在观看内部放映的批评美国核武器政策的电影后所评论地那样：“我们绝对大吃一惊。 我们开始理解，在一场核战争中，灾难会降临到他们的头上，也会降临到我们的头上。


Soviet audiences watching films with apolitical themes nonetheless learned that people in the West did not have to stand in long lines to purchase food, did not live in communal apartments, and owned their own cars.	苏联观众观看不含政治主题的电影时，还能够知道西方人并不需要排长队买东西，并不是住在集体宿舍中，他们还有自己的汽车。


All of this discredited the negative views promulgated by the Soviet media.	所有这些都驳斥了苏联媒体宣扬的负面观点。


Even rock and roll played a part.	甚至连摇滚乐也发挥作用。


As one of Gorbachev’s aides later testified, “The Beatles were our quiet way of rejecting ‘the system’ while conforming to most of its demands.”	戈尔巴乔夫的一位顾问后来作证说：“我们听重金属乐队。 这样，我们一方面顺从“体制”的大部分要求，另一方面不动声色地拒绝它。


Czech Communist officials sentenced a group of young people to prison in the 1950’s for playing tapes of “decadent American music,” but their efforts turned out to be counter-productive.	”上世纪五十年代，捷克共产党官员把一群年轻人判刑入狱，罪名是播放“腐朽的美国音乐”，但是，他们这样做却适得其反。


In 1980, after John Lennon was murdered, a monument to him spontaneously appeared in Prague, and the anniversary of his death was marked by an annual procession for peace and democracy.	当1980年���翰·列农被谋杀后，他的一座雕像立即出现在布拉格，每年他的遇难纪念日时都有要求和平和民主的游行。


In 1988, the organizers founded a Lennon Peace Club that demanded the removal of Soviet troops.	1988年，组织者们成立了列农和平俱乐部，要求苏联军队撤离。


Lennon trumped Lenin.	此时，列农战胜了列宁。


The Cold War was won by a mixture of hard and soft power.	刚柔并济赢得了冷战。


Not all of the sources of soft power were American – witness the role of the BBC and the Beatles.	并非所有的柔性力量都源于美国，看看英国广播公司和重金属乐队就知道了。


But it would be a mistake to ignore the role that popular culture played.	但是，忽视流行文化发挥的作用将是一个错误。


One has to be careful in drawing lessons for today.	以史为鉴应当小心谨慎。


Eastern European cultures were more similar to Western cultures than are Muslim cultures.	与穆斯林文化相比，东欧文化更接近于西欧文化。


In some fundamentalist circles, and among the terrorists, Western culture evokes repulsion, not attraction.	在某些原教旨主义者和恐怖份子眼中，西方文化并无吸引力，而是令人反感。


But even in Iran, where the ruling mullahs describe America as “the great Satan,” the young want to watch American videos in the privacy of their homes.	伊朗的统治毛拉们把美国描绘为“邪恶撒旦”。 但是，即使在那里，年轻人仍然想在家里偷偷地观看美国电影录像。


Polls in the Muslim world show that American culture remains attractive to the moderate majority.	穆斯林世界的民意调查显示，美国文化对于温和的大多数人而言是有吸引力的。


It is American policies that have led to America’s unpopularity.	是美国的政策导致了美国不受欢迎。


For a start, Bush could learn to get out of the way and encourage more popular and grassroots contacts.	作为起始，布什应当努力鼓励更为大众化的基层接触联络。


How to Beat Childhood Cancer	如何战胜儿童癌症


PHILADELPHIA – For a parent, there is perhaps no greater fear than the prospect of losing a child to illness or accident.	费城——对父母而言，或许没有比疾病或意外丧子更为深刻的恐惧。


And it is childhood cancer that has the greatest potential to catapult a remote fear into an unimaginable reality.	儿童癌症最有可能将遥远的恐惧变为难以想象的现实。


As a pediatric oncologist, having cared for children with cancer and their families for more than 25 years, I know that only a parent who has confronted such a diagnosis truly understands the depth of this fear, as it touches the core of who we are as parents.	作为一名照顾患癌儿童及其家属超过25年的儿科肿瘤学家，我知道只有面对癌症诊断的家长才能真正理解这种深不见底的恐惧，因为它触动了我们身为家长的价值核心。


I also know that we are treating more children more effectively than ever before – and that we can do much better still.	我也知道我们治疗的儿童更多，疗效更好——而且未来还可能进一步提升。


For a child born in the 1960’s, the diagnosis of the most common form of childhood cancer, acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), meant almost certain death, with a survival rate of less than 10%.	对20世纪60年代出生的孩子而言，被诊断出患有最常见的儿童癌症急性淋巴细胞白血病（ALL）         其存活率不到10%，也就是说患儿几乎必死无疑。


A child with the same diagnosis today has a better than 80% chance of being cured.	而今天诊断出相同疾病的儿童治愈率却超过80%。


Looking at the five-year survival rates for children with ALL from the 1970’s through the 1990’s, one sees an almost linear improvement in cure rates.	回顾白血病患儿从20世纪70年代到90年代的五年存活率可以看到治愈率几乎呈直线上升。


This makes the 1970s, 1980’s, and 1990’s look like an era of accelerating discovery and therapeutic development.	20世纪70、80、90年代因此成为名副其实的加速探索和治疗发展期。


But virtually all of the drugs that we use today to cure children with cancer were discovered and approved in the 1950’s and 1960’s.	但今天治疗癌症患儿的药物几乎都是在20世纪50、60年代发明并通过审批的。


So, if new drugs did not fuel four decades of progress, what did?	因此人们不禁要问，推动四十年突飞猛进的不是新药又是什么因素？


A major driver was a remarkable, sustained scientific collaboration.	卓有成效的持续科学合作是主要推动力。


In the 1950’s, a group of clinical scientists recognized that, because childhood cancer was a rare disease, no single medical center could study enough patients to make the necessary advances across the spectrum of pediatric oncologic diseases.	20世纪50年代临床科学家认为因为儿童癌症是一种罕见疾病，没有单一哪个医疗中心有能力研究足够的患者样本以推动儿科肿瘤的进步。


The decision to conduct collaborative research across multiple institutions resulted in the development of cooperative group research.	多机构合作研究决策带来了合作团队研究的推进。


In the fight against childhood cancer, this concept evolved into what is now the Children’s Oncology Group (COG), which unites more than 8,000 experts at more than 200 leading children’s hospitals, universities, and cancer centers across North America, Australia, New Zealand, and parts of Europe.	在与儿童癌症的斗争中，这一理念逐渐演变为目前的儿童肿瘤团体（COG），将横跨北美、澳大利亚、新西兰和欧洲部分地区200余家顶级儿童医院、大学及癌症中心的8，000余名相关专家聚集在一起。


The COG conducts research across the spectrum of cancers that afflict children, and has approximately 100 clinical trials underway around the world.	儿童肿瘤团体对儿童罹患的各种癌症进行研究，有100余项临床试验正在世界各地进行。


With an emerging infrastructure in place for cooperative research, sustained improvement in outcomes partly reflected an ever-increasing understanding that childhood cancers are diverse.	随着合作研究基础构造的逐步建立，研究结果持续改善部分反映出对儿童癌症多元化的理解越来越深。


Childhood ALL, for example, is not a single disease, but rather a spectrum of diseases.	举例来讲，儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病并非某个单一病种，而是一系列疾病的组合。


Recognition of this diversity led to the study of different treatment regimens in different sub-populations of children with pathologically similar cancers.	对上述多样性的认识导致针对罹患相似病理性癌症的不同患儿群体开展差异化的治疗方法研究。


Throughout this period, the ability to overcome the most common side effect of cancer drugs, myelosuppression (a decrease in blood counts), improved dramatically.	在此期间，克服骨髓抑制（即导致血细胞计数减少）这种最常见的抗癌药物副作用的技术得到了显著提高。


It began with the ability to transfuse not only red blood cells into anemic patients, but also platelets, reducing the threat of life-threatening bleeding that can accompany cancer therapy.	现在可以将红血球和血小板同时输入到贫血患者体内，从而缓解癌症治疗引发的危及生命的出血现象。


Equally important, the risks and types of life-threatening infections that come with myelosuppression were increasingly recognized, leading to the development and better use of more effective antibiotics.	对有生命危险的骨髓抑制感染类型及风险的认识越来越普遍，进而导致抗生素的研发及应用效率提高。


Starting in the 1990’s, cytokines, drugs that stimulate bone marrow to produce infection-fighting white blood cells, began to be integrated into cancer treatments, further mitigating the risk of life-threatening infectious complications of care.	20世纪90年代，刺激骨髓生成抗感染白细胞的细胞激素开始用于癌症治疗，进一步降低了危及生命的感染并发症的护理危险性。


As a result of these advances in science and supportive care, the same chemotherapeutic drugs could be delivered much more intensively for children with select types and sub-types of cancer.	由于上文提到的科学及辅助治疗成果，同样的化疗药物可以更有效地治疗指定类型及细分类型的癌症儿童。


With selective intensification, cure rates began to increase steadily.	治愈率随着选择性强化开始稳步上升。


And yet, while this strategy has indeed resulted in better outcomes, the acute and long-term morbidity of therapy has been substantial.	尽管上述策略的确改善了治疗效果，但治疗所引发的急性及长期发病率一直居高不下。


Children with high-risk cancers who receive dose-intensive chemotherapy have a greater than 80% chance of experiencing at least one severe, life-threatening, or fatal drug-related toxic event over the course of their treatment.	罹患高风险癌症并接受高剂量化疗的儿童在治疗期间有超过80%概率会遭受一次以上危及生命或致命的严重药物毒性损伤。


The late effects of cancer treatment include permanent organ and tissue damage, hormonal and reproductive dysfunction, and second cancers.	癌症治疗的后期影响包括永久性器官组织损伤、激素生殖功能减退及癌症复发。


More than 40% of the estimated 330,000 survivors of childhood cancer in the United States experience a significant health-related complication from childhood cancer and its treatment.	估计330,000名美国癌症幸存儿童中超过40%患有儿童癌症及治疗引发的严重健康并发症。


And, despite our advances, cancer in developed countries remains the leading cause of death from disease in children older than one year.	  并且虽然取得了重大进步，但癌症在发达国家仍然是造成一岁以上儿童因病死亡最首要的原因。


We are, however, entering an era of unprecedented discovery.	但我们正在迎来前所未有的发现时代。


The powerful research tools that we now have to uncover the underlying basis of childhood cancers could fundamentally change how we treat children with these dreaded diseases.	我们目前所掌握的发现儿童癌症机制的强大研究工具��以从根本上改变对癌症患儿的治疗。


For a limited number of childhood cancers, there are new drugs that can target the fundamental drivers of malignancy.	有些儿童癌症新药可以直接针对恶性肿瘤根本驱动因素发挥作用。


The most notable example is the impact of Gleevec (imatinib mesylate) on outcomes for children with an uncommon subtype of leukemia – Philadelphia chromosome-positive ALL.	最明显的例子是格列卫（甲磺酸伊马替尼）在罹患儿童白血病罕见亚型（费城染色体阳性急性淋巴细胞白血病）的儿童身上取得了令人振奋的疗效。


The addition of this inhibitor to intensive chemotherapy has dramatically improved the outlook for these children, increasing the rate of three-year event-free survival from 35% to 80%.	在高剂量化疗中添加这种抑制剂已经让患儿的治疗前景显著改善，并将三年无并发症存活率从35%提高到80%。


The development of targeted new agents is likely to affect outcomes for other subtypes of childhood cancer, including anaplastic large-cell lymphoma and other types of leukemias.	针对性的新药研发可能影响其他儿童癌症亚型的治疗效果，包括间变性大细胞淋巴瘤和其他类型的白血病。


Given that childhood cancers are all rare or ultra-rare diseases, the ability of the biopharmaceutical industry to invest resources into development of new treatments is limited at best.	鉴于儿童癌症的罕见或超罕见性，生物制药业投入资源研制新药的可能性即使最乐观估计也非常有限。


Yet research is needed to identify potential targets for the entire spectrum of childhood cancers.	但确定各种儿童癌症的潜在目标又离不开研究工作。


For some potential targets, public-private partnerships will be needed to develop new therapeutic approaches.	在某些潜在目标领域，研发新的治疗方法需要展开公私合作。


The past 40 years have demonstrated the remarkable return on investment to be gained in collaborative scientific research.	过去40年已经显示出科研合作可观的投资回报。


Now we must leverage current scientific opportunities and invest the resources needed to develop more effective, less toxic therapies, thereby improving outcomes for all children with cancer.	现在我们必须充分利用现有的科学机遇并投入资源研发疗效更强、毒性更小的治疗方法，从而提高所有儿童的癌症疗效。


Colombia and the International Crisis	哥伦比亚与国际危机


BOGOTA – Just five months ago, Colombia’s government was assuring its citizens that they were protected from the international crisis.	波哥大—仅仅在五个月前，哥伦比亚政府还向其国民保证他们没有受到国际危机的影响。


Now, analysts predict that the economy will barely grow 1% this year, and that is the best case scenario.	而现在，分析家们却预言该国经济今年几乎连1%都增长不到。 而这还是最坏的预测。


This bleak forecast marks the end of Colombia’s longest cycle of growth in three decades, leaving the country in the same fragile situation as that of many other developing economies.	这一暗淡的预测标志着哥伦比亚三十年以来最长的一个增长周期的结束，并陷入和许多其他发展中经济体一样脆弱的境地。


Of course, a deteriorating economy is not exclusive to Colombia.	当然，经济恶化并非哥伦比亚一家。


Since the middle of last year, the International Monetary Fund has been reducing its projections for growth across Latin America.	自从去年中期开始，国际货币基金组织就已经开始调低对整个拉美经济增长的预期。


Last October, the Fund estimated that growth in the region would reach 3.2% this year; now, it says that growth will barely be positive.	去年十月，该组织预测该地区今年的增长率会达到3. 2%；


And, most likely, the worst is yet to come: if the Obama administration does not succeed in stabilizing the United States economy in the coming weeks, Latin America will most likely face even steeper declines.	现在，它却说很可能为负增长。 而且最糟糕的情况也许还没有发生：如果奥巴马政府不能在未来几周成功地稳定美国经济，拉美很可能还会面临更为严峻的经济下滑局面。


The good news for Colombia is that it is better off than many of its neighbors.	对哥伦比亚而言，好消息是它的经济形势比邻国要好。


Although projecting concrete figures is a sterile exercise in these worrisome times, most analysts predict that Colombia’s economic performance this year will be inferior to Peru’s, but similar to Chile’s and Brazil’s and better than that of Argentina, Venezuela, and Mexico, a country expected to contract by more than 2%.	虽然在如此令人忧心的形势下预测具体经济数据毫无意义，但大多数分析家都预测哥伦比亚今年的经济表现将不如秘鲁，而与智利和巴西相当，但要好于阿根廷、委内瑞拉和墨西哥。 据预测墨西哥的经济规模将会萎缩2%以上。


This comparatively benign situation reflects Colombia’s relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions.	这种相对良好的形势反映了哥伦比亚较为有利的宏观经济环境。


Although the country was never as protected from the global downturn as its authorities claimed, the country benefits from some factors that do help ease the damage inflicted by the international crisis, especially with regard to the availability of foreign currency in these times of restrictions on external financing.	虽然该国从未向其政府所声称的那样免受全球经济衰退之苦，但它确实得益于一些能够减轻国际经济危机所造成的破坏的因素。 特别是考虑到在对外融资如此艰难的情况下，对外汇的持有。


During the past few years, Colombia has become one of the three most attractive destinations for foreign investment in Latin America, allowing it to cover a significant part of its external financing needs this year.	在过去的几年中，哥伦比亚已经成为拉美最具吸引力的三个外资投资目的地之一。 这就使得该国今年的外来投资在很大程度上能够满足对外融资的需求。


Moreover, remittances by Colombians working abroad grew 8% in 2008, a surprising result when compared to countries such as Mexico and Ecuador, where remittances have fallen.	另外，在国外工作的哥伦比亚人汇入该国的款额在2008年增长了8%。 与外币汇入额已经下降的墨西哥和厄瓜多尔相比，这一结果颇令人意外。


In addition, international financial markets perceive Colombia’s economy as being fundamentally sound.	此外，国际金融市场普遍认为哥伦比亚经济的基本面是健康的。


The current risk premium for government borrowing in international markets is very similar to that paid by Peru and Brazil, and much less than that demanded of Argentina, Venezuela, and Ecuador.	政府借贷目前所支付的风险差额与秘鲁和巴西相当，而比阿根廷、委内瑞拉和厄瓜多尔所需支付的要少得多。


But, while Colombia is not as bad off as some of its neighbors, the country will not be able to pull itself out of the crisis easily.	然而，虽然哥伦比亚的情况没有其邻国那么糟糕，但它想要自己摆脱危机也并非易事。


Unfortunately, the authorities do not have much margin for error in working to counteract the damage done by the international crisis.	不幸的是，在应对国际经济危机所造成的损害方面，该国政府并没有多少失误的余地。


The government did not set aside resources while things were going well, and now it does not have the fiscal space needed for an aggressive boost to public spending of the type that many other governments are attempting.	该国政府在经济景气的时候并没有预留资源，因此它现在就缺少像其他国家政府那样实施积极的公共开支刺激计划所必需的财政空间。


Although Colombia’s government announced a few weeks ago a strategy based on important infrastructure work, its impact will be limited: most of the investment was already in the budget last year, and the officials in charge of public works have consistently demonstrated inefficiency when executing large-scale projects.	虽然哥伦比亚政府在数周前宣布了一项基于重要基础设施工程的战略，但其作用将会是有限的：大多数投资项目已经纳入了去年的预算，且负责公共工程的官员在执行大型项目时总是表现出低效率。


Meanwhile, the country’s monetary authorities have much more leeway to boost the economy by lowering interest rates at a time when the threat of inflation is diminishing.	同时，该国的货币当局在通过降低利率（当通胀的威胁渐行渐远）来刺激经济方面有更多的余地。


In fact, the Bank of the Republic has reduced its interest rates from 10% at the end of last year to 7% at its last meeting in March.	实际上，共和国银行在三月的会议上已经将利率从去年年底的10%降至7%。


These policies should allow Colombia’s economy to grow – barely – this year, but only as long as the world economy begins to stabilize before the end of the first quarter.	这些政策应该能让哥伦比亚的经济在今年勉强增长，但前提是世界经济在第一季度结束前开始回稳。


If so, the outlook for Colombia is more favorable in 2010 and 2011, when growth should be close to 3%, thanks to inflows of foreign investment, improvements in security, and a better business environment.	果真如此，那么哥伦比亚经济在2010和2011年的前景就会比较乐观。 由于外商投资的涌入、安全状况的改善和更好的营商环境，增长率应该接近3%。


But if the international crisis lasts longer than the first half of 2010, all bets are off, and Colombia will struggle to find its economic footing in a region devastated by generalized contraction.	但如果国际经济危机持续的时间超过了2010年的上半年则全盘皆输，哥伦比亚将在���个经济普遍萎缩的地区挣扎着寻找经济发展的出路。


Colombia at Peace?	和平的哥伦比亚？


BOGOTÁ – The Framework Agreement for the End of the Armed Conflict in Colombia that has just been announced by President Juan Manuel Santos is a historic landmark for his country and all of Latin America.	波哥大—哥伦比亚总统桑托斯刚刚宣布的《停止武装冲突框架协议》（Framework Agreement for the End of the Armed Conflict）是他的祖国和整个拉丁美洲的一座里程碑。


It is also a tribute to diplomatic resourcefulness and negotiating skill.	同时，这也是对外交智慧和谈判技巧的一大贡献。


The agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, better known as the FARC, came after long years of failed attempts by Colombian governments of all political shades to reach an accommodation with the last, and among the most odious, guerrilla movement to have operated in Latin America.	该协议的另一方是哥伦比亚革命武装力量（更有名的是其缩写FARC）。 长期以来，哥伦比亚用尽各种政治手段都没有与这个拉丁美洲最可怕也是最后一支游击运动力量达成一致。


Never before has the FARC – a monumental apparatus of terror, mass murder, and drug trafficking – agreed to discuss disarmament, its fighters’ social and political reintegration, victims’ rights, an end to drug production, and participation in “truth and responsibility” commissions to examine the crimes committed during a half-century of conflict.	此前，FARC——不折不扣的恐怖活动、大屠杀和贩毒机器——从未同意就解除武装、成员开始新的社会和政治生活、受害者权利、停止制毒以及参与为考察半个世纪以来的犯罪和冲突活动而设的“信任和责任”委员会等问题展开讨论。


But now it has.	但现在，他们点头了。


This momentous shift reflects the decimation of the FARC following long years of struggle, the resilience of Colombian society, and, perhaps most important, Santos’s brilliant regional policy.	这一重大变化反映了FARC在长年斗争之后实力的极大削弱、哥伦比亚社会的韧性，以及（也许是最重要的）桑托斯的高明地区政策。


By weakening the so-called Bolivarian Axis (Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia), the FARC guerrillas were left without a supportive regional environment.	通过削弱所谓的玻利瓦尔轴心（委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚），FARC游击队不再拥有支持他们的地区环境了。


As with peace processes in the Middle East and Central America following the Cold War’s end, regional changes created the conditions for the start of the Colombian process.	正如中东和中美洲随着冷战的结束迎来和平进程一样，地区变化创造了开启哥伦比亚和平进程的条件。


But, in the Middle East and Central America, external actors – the United States and the Soviet Union – produced the change; in the case of the Colombian process, the change came from within.	但是，在中东和中美洲，是外部行为人——美国和苏联——推动了变化； 而在哥伦比亚进程中，变化产生于内部。


Prior to engaging the FARC in secret talks in Cuba, Santos’s regional diplomacy shifted the region’s politics from saber rattling to the hard work of cooperation.	在设法让FARC加入在古巴举行的秘密谈判之前，桑托斯的地区外交政策改变了该地区的政治形势——从武力恫吓转向了努力合作。


He turned Venezuela and Ecuador, which had long been safe havens for the FARC, into friendly neighbors willing to bring an end to the archaic tradition of revolutionary wars.	他让长期以来一直是FARC避风港的委内瑞拉和厄瓜多尔成为愿意与革命战争的古老传统说再见的友好邻邦。


In fact, in what is perhaps the most remarkable diplomatic turnaround, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has become a key facilitator in the resolution of the Colombian conflict.	事实上，或许最令人瞩目的外交变化是委内瑞拉总统查韦斯已经变身为哥伦比亚冲突解决方案的关键促进者。


The talks with the FARC evolved as regional détente was followed by an ambitious initiative to address the root causes of the Colombian conflict.	与FARC的谈判逐步促成了地区形势的改善，随后出台的是解决哥伦比亚冲突根源的方案。


Most notably, Santos signed the Victims and Land Restitution Law in June 2011, in the presence of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.	最令人瞩目的是，2011年6月桑托斯签署了《受害者和土地归还法》（Victims and Land Restitution Law），联合国秘书长潘基文也出席了签署仪式。


The law provides reparation for the victims of human-rights violations in the course of a 60-year conflict, as well as restitution of millions of hectares stolen from peasants.	该法为60年冲突中的人权侵害行为受害者提供了补偿，并向农民归还了数百万英亩被夺走的土地。


The law thus puts Colombia on a path to peace by blunting the FARC’s appeal to land reform to justify its untold atrocities.	该法也因此削弱了FARC用土地改革为其数不清的暴行开脱的说服力，从而将哥伦比亚推上了和平之路。


The law is undeniably complex, and by no means without shortcomings.	不可否认，这是一部十分复杂的法律，而且也绝不是毫无漏洞。


But, if implemented as planned, it could bring about a profound social revolution.	但是，如果能够按计划实施，它可以带来一场深远的社会革命。


It also represents a novel approach to peace, given that such laws are normally introduced only after a conflict has ended.	它还代表了全新的和平之路，因为通常只有在冲突结束后才会有这样的法律出台。


In this case, returning land to dispossessed peasants and offering financial reparation to the victims and those who were displaced by the conflict became the way to peace.	在哥伦比亚的例子中，向失地农民归还土地以及向受害者和因冲突流离失所者提供经济补偿成了促进和平之道。


Indeed, it was none other than Alfonso Cano, a former FARC leader, who called the law “essential to a future of reconciliation” and a “contribution to a real solution to the conflict.”	事实上，正是FARC前领导人阿方索·卡诺（Alfonso Cano）将该法称为“未来和解的关键”以及“大大有助于冲突的真正解决”。


Skeptics and opponents of the negotiations do have a case, however.	但是，谈判的悲观者和反对者也不是没有道理。


The FARC’s record in previous peace talks reveals a penchant for manipulating negotiations to gain national and international legitimacy without actually being willing to strike a deal.	FARC在此前和平谈判中的案底表明他们惯常于操纵谈判在并无形成妥协的实际意愿的情况下获得国内和国际合法性。


Santos could, therefore, have been tempted to choose the Sri Lanka way – a ruthless military onslaught to defeat the insurgents, at the price of major human-rights violations and the destruction of civilian communities.	因此，桑托斯很可能会步斯里兰卡后尘，用无情的军事攻势瓦解叛军，但这样做的代价将是严重的侵害人权和毁灭平民社区。


Instead, Santos opted for the path of least expedience.	桑托斯并没有选择这样做，而是选择了最小代价的和平之路。


After all, war, in Colombia and elsewhere, frequently unites nations, while peace divides them.	毕竟，在哥伦比亚和其他地区，各国通常因战争而合，因和平而分。


The repercussions of a genuine end to the Colombian armed conflict would be felt far beyond the country’s borders.	哥伦比亚武装冲突若能真正结束，其反响将绝不会仅限于国内。


If Chávez’s Venezuela has become a narco-state in which the regime’s acolytes are drug lords, this reflects their privileged relations with the FARC.	如果查韦斯的委内瑞拉沦为毒品国家，其政权之爪牙充当毒枭，那么这就表明它与FARC有着超凡的关系。


Repercussions would also be felt in Mexico, where drug cartels are tearing apart the country, and the US, the world’s largest source of demand.	墨西哥也将感受到哥伦比亚武装冲突结束的反响，该国的贩毒卡特尔正在摧毁这个国家以及作为世界最大毒品需求源的美国。


West Africa, too, would be affected, having become in recent years the main transit point for South American drugs headed to Europe.	西非也将受到影响，近几年来，该地区已成为南美毒品流向欧洲的主要中转站。


Formidable difficulties still lie ahead, and a final agreement is by no means certain.	前路依然坎坷，最终协议还远未确定。


But Santos nonetheless has a fair chance of burying, once and for all, the specious mystique of violent revolutionary change that has held back Latin America’s political and economic modernization for so long.  	尽管如此，桑托斯仍然大有机会一劳永逸地解决长期以来阻碍拉丁美洲迈向政治和经济一体化的看似神秘无比的暴力革命变化。


The Two Colombias	两个哥伦比亚


BOGOTÁ – In Medellín, Colombia’s second-largest city, you can listen to an impressive presentation by the mayor’s office about emerging industrial parks and new technology firms.	波哥大—在哥伦比亚第二大城市麦德林，你可以听到市长办公室令人印象深刻地介绍该市新涌现的工业园和新科技公司。


Then, a glance at your smartphone reveals that guerrillas have kidnapped an army general, and that negotiations to end a decades-long civil war with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Latin America’s oldest guerrilla group, are at a standstill.	接着扫一眼你的智能手机，你又能发现游击队绑架了某位将军，而为结束与哥伦比亚革命卫队（FARC，拉丁美洲历史最悠久的游击队组织）的数十年内战而进行的谈判陷入了僵局。


Colombia is the only country in Latin America where you can attend seminars at world-class universities, learn about mushrooming multinationals, and chat with supremely competent policymakers, all the while knowing that citizens are confronting one another with machetes and bazookas just a few dozen miles away.	在哥伦比亚，你可以在世界级大学参加研讨会研究茁壮成长的跨国公司，与能力卓著的决策者攀谈，与此同时，你又能了解到，在这里，相隔不过数十英里远的公民彼此拔刀相向。 这种现象在拉丁美洲独此一家。


In this sense, Colombia is two countries, which have been at war with each other for far too long.	从这个角度讲，哥伦比亚是两个国家，还进行着旷日持久的交战。


On the one hand, there is the Colombia of rapid economic growth and booming foreign investment, of refurbished cities and innovative social policies.	一方面，哥伦比亚拥有高速的经济增长和繁荣的外国投资，城市面貌焕然一新，创新社会政策层出不穷。


On the other hand, there is the Colombia of Gabriel García Márquez’s fictional Colonel Aureliano Buendía, who started 17 civil wars – and lost all of them.	另一方面，这里是马尔克斯笔下的小说人物、掀起过17场内战并全部败绩的奥雷良诺上校的哥伦比亚。


The bad news is that the struggle between the two Colombias has taken a tremendous human toll, with many citizens having suffered through poverty, warfare, and human-rights violations for most, if not all, of their lives.	坏消息是两个哥伦比亚之间的斗争夺走了无数人的生命，许多公民终身饱受贫困、战火和人权侵害。


The good news is that the modern Colombia, the country of peace and progress, is winning.	好消息是现代哥伦比亚——和平与进步的哥伦比亚——正在取得胜利。


The fruits of that victory can be seen in places like Medellín, which, just 20 years ago, was synonymous with drug cartels and violence.	这一胜利的成果可以在麦德林等地一览无余。 在短短20年前，麦德林还是毒品垄断大亨和暴力的代名词。


Today, mayors and city planners from all over the world, eager to learn about urban renewal, flock to Medellín, which boasts public libraries that take culture to hillside shanties and gleaming cable cars that haul residents to and from work every day.	如今，来自全世界的市长和城市规划者带着渴望学习城市复兴的信念涌向麦德林。 这里的公立图书馆将文化带给山麓小村，早出晚归的电缆车每天接送居民上下班。


It is difficult to think of a city that has undergone as dramatic a transformation as Medellín in recent years (though Dubai and Shanghai may be in the running).	很难想象近几年中有哪个城市经历过像麦德林这样的剧烈转型（迪拜和上海或许可以相提并论）。


The country as a whole has also experienced significant economic progress.	哥伦比亚全国也经历了巨大的经济进步。


Since the 2008 financial crisis, Colombia, along with Peru, has been South America’s top economic performer.	自2008年金融危机以来，哥伦比亚与秘鲁一起名列南美最佳经济选手。


As growth slows throughout the region, owing to falling commodity prices and the end of quantitative easing in the United States, Colombia’s economy is actually accelerating.	拜大宗商品价格下跌和美国量化宽松结束所赐，整个地区的经济增长都有所下降，但哥伦比亚的经济实际上还有所加速。


The International Monetary Fund expects growth to reach a respectable 4.8% this year and 4.5% in 2015.	国际货币基金组织（IMF）预期，哥伦比亚今明两年增长分别将达到4. 8%和4.


To be sure, the sharp drop in world oil prices is bad for Colombia, which in recent years has become a major hydrocarbons producer.	诚然，世界油价的大幅下跌对哥伦比亚是个不利的消息——近几年来，哥伦比亚已成为主要碳氢产品生产国。


But strong budget rules, similar to Chile’s, keep fiscal policy well anchored.	但强大的预算规则（类似于智利）使哥伦比亚很好地锚定了财政政策。


And the government has indicated that, if the need arises, it is prepared to raise taxes to achieve its goal of gradually reducing public debt and improving public services.	政府已经表态，如果有需要准备采取增税实现逐渐减少公共债务和改善公共服务的目标。


The business community, despite some initial reluctance, seems willing to go along.	商界尽管一开始有些不情不愿，但现在似乎也愿意配合。


Colombia remains a highly unequal society, with the Gini coefficient, a common measure of inequality, hovering around 0.5 – in the same range as Brazil and Chile.	哥伦比亚仍是一个高度不平等的社会，基尼系数（衡量不平等成都的常规指标）徘徊在0. 5左右，与巴西和智利相当。


The problem has many causes, one of which is a poorly functioning labor market that forces many Colombians to accept informal work or no work at all.	问题的根源是多方面的，其中之一是劳动力市场功能不全，迫使许多哥伦比亚人不得不从事非正式工作或彻底失业。


But the government does not shy away from talk of redistribution.	但政府不惮于承认再分配问题。


Indeed, it has already initiated transfers (such as pension increases for poor retirees), and its policies have contributed to five consecutive years of declining unemployment.	事实上，哥伦比亚已经启动了转移支付（如提高穷人退休者的养老金），其政策带来了失业率连续五年下降。


As Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas observed in a spirited speech to a banking convention last week in Medellín, though President Juan Manuel Santos’ administration is historically rooted in Colombia’s center-right political forces, its fiscal prudence and activist social policy qualify it as an adherent of the social-democratic “third way.”	上周，在麦德林的一次银行业会议上，财政部长毛里西奥·卡德纳斯（Mauricio Cárdenas）发表了热情洋溢的演讲，他指出，尽管总统桑托斯政府的历史根基在于哥伦比亚中右翼政治力量，但其财政审慎和积极的社会政策表明它走的是一条社会民主的“第三条路”。


In the coming years, two factors could propel Colombia’s continued development.	在未来几年中，有两大因素可以继续推动哥伦比亚的发展。


One is the Pacific Alliance, which also includes Mexico, Peru, and Chile.	其一是太平洋同盟（Pacific Alliance，其余成员还包括墨西哥、秘鲁和智利）。


Firms learn to export new products by selling them in regional markets.	企业学会了通过地区市场销售出口新产品。


But, in South America, the rhetoric of trade integration has often been stifled by the harsh reality of protectionism.	但是，在南美，贸易一体化言论常常被严峻的保护主义现实所窒息。


Fortunately, with the consolidation of a free-trade bloc among the Pacific Rim countries – home to 215 million people and accounting for 37% of Latin America’s GDP – this is changing.	幸运的是，随着环太平洋国家（拥有2. 15亿人口，贡献37%的拉丁美洲GDP）自由贸易区的巩固，这一点正在改变。


The second factor – which has yet to arrive – is peace, in the form of a definite cessation of hostilities with FARC. This is not the first time that talks have been suspended, and it might not be the last.	第二个因素——目前尚未到来——是和平，即与FARC达成最终确定的停火���谈判中止一不止一次，这次也很有可能不是最后一次。


But never before have negotiations progressed so far, reaching substantial agreements in several areas.	但此前从未有谈判走得如此遥远，在多项领域形成了大量一致。


Nothing is more important than building a Colombia where citizens no longer fear being caught in a hail of bullets or being dragged from their homes in the middle of the night.	对哥伦比亚来说，最重要的莫过于让公民不再害怕枪林弹雨或半夜在家中遭遇劫持。


At the same time, one should not underestimate the economic dividend of peace, which economists in Bogotá have estimated could boost GDP growth by as much as one percentage point annually for a decade or more.	与此同时，我们也不能低估和平的经济红利，波哥大经济学家估计这一红利可以在十年甚至更长的时间里将年GDP增长提高一个百分点。


A quarter-century ago, a safe and prosperous Colombia seemed impossible.	二十五年前，安全繁荣的哥伦比亚还是不可能的任务。


Yet it is now within reach.	但如今，这已经摆在了我们面前。


At a time of intensifying political conflict and painfully few success stories, Colombians are giving the world reason for hope.	当今世界，政治冲突不断恶化，成功故事少之又少，而哥伦比亚正在给予全世界以希望的理由。


One Hundred Years of Tranquility?	百年宁静？


SANTIAGO – Gabriel García Márquez’s great novel One Hundred Years of Solitude starts with a colonel who “started 32 civil wars and lost them all” facing the firing squad.	圣地亚哥——加夫列尔·加西亚·马尔克斯的伟大小说《百年孤独》始于一位“挑起32场内战并全部失利”的上校面对行刑队的一幕。


The site of the event is the fictional town of Macondo, but few readers are fooled: the novel is about García Márquez’s native Colombia.	事情发生的地点是马孔多这个虚构的小镇，但鲜有读者因此而受骗：这部小说写的是加西亚·马尔克斯的祖国哥伦比亚。


Last week, Colombia’s civil war – the sole remaining armed conflict in Latin America – formally came to an end.	上周，哥伦比亚内战——也是拉丁美洲唯一仅存的一场武装冲突——正式落下了帷幕。


It lasted more than 50 years, cost a quarter-million lives, and displaced six million people.	内战持续时间超过50年，吞噬了25万人的生命并导致六百万民众流离失所。


It seems hard to believe, but peace is finally here.	虽然似乎难以置信，但和平最终到来了。


Pessimists will point out that much remains to be worked out, fighters have yet to hand in their weapons, and the final peace agreement has not been signed.	悲观主义者可能指出还有许多工作要做，战士们还没有交出武器，最终的和平协议也还有待签署。


Still, the handshake in Havana between President Juan Manuel Santos and guerrilla leader Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri (known by the nom de guerre Timochenko) marks the end of a tragic era and the beginning of a far more promising one.	尽管如此，胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯总统和游击队领袖罗德里戈·隆多尼奥·埃切韦里（曾经化名提姆切科）在哈瓦那的握手仍然标志着一个悲剧时代的结束和一个更加充满希望的时代的开始。


Beginning in the 1960s, Latin America was infected by a bad case of what Lenin called “Left-Wing Communism: an Infantile Disorder.”	20世纪60年代起，列宁所说的左翼共产主义：一种幼稚病传染了拉丁美洲。


Donning fatigues and taking to the mountains was the cure for all social ills.	穿上迷彩服进山是包治一切社会疑难杂症的万能良药。


Guerrilla movements were born and grew, often only to split up and engender new ones.	游击队运动诞生并快速成长，其结果往往导致分裂和新的游击队产生。


In many places – especially Central America – violent insurgency became endemic.	在很多地区——尤其是中美洲——暴力叛乱成为随处可见的现象。


Colombia’s bloodshed started even earlier, in the period simply known as “The Violence,” following the murder in 1948 of the liberal presidential candidate Jorge Eliécer Gaitán.	哥伦比亚的流血事件起源更早，始于1948年自由派总统候选人盖坦遭遇谋杀的所谓“暴力期”之后。


The fighting between liberals and conservatives came to an end with the advent of the bloody dictatorship of Gustavo Rojas Pinilla in 1953.	自由派和保守派之间的战争随着1953年古斯塔沃·罗哈斯·皮尼利亚的血腥专政诞生而结束。


Democracy of sorts returned in 1958, but violence continued – until now.	某种形式的民主政体于1958年回归，但暴力活动却直到现在从未停止过。


Of course, the poster child for the period of revolutionary fervor in Latin America was the Cuban revolution of 1958.	当然，1958年的古巴革命是拉丁美洲革命激情期的典型形象。


Che Guevara’s intense gaze and red-starred beret, captured in Alberto Korda’s iconic photograph, mobilized a generation.	切·格瓦拉炯炯的目光和缀着红星图案的贝雷帽被定格在阿尔贝托·科尔达的标志性照片中，催生了整整一代人的激情澎湃。


Nearly six decades later, the dream of the Cuban revolution lies in tatters.	近60年后，古巴革命的梦想却已支离破碎。


Its once-proud leader, Fidel Castro, has become a pathetic figure, clad in garish tracksuits, appearing from time to time to utter increasingly incoherent pronouncements.	革命曾引以为豪的领袖菲德尔·卡斯特罗已经成了一个可怜的人物，穿着扎眼的运动服，时不时出来露面说些越来越不连贯的话。


His brother and handpicked successor, Raúl, as grey and uninspiring as political leaders come, hosted this week’s peace ceremony in Havana.	菲德尔的弟弟和他亲自挑选的继任者劳尔主持了本周在哈瓦那举行的和平仪式，让人不禁想起政治领袖是多么缺乏激情和老态龙钟。


In the 1970s and 1980s, the counterpart of childish revolution from the left was murderous repression from the right.	20世纪七八十年代，与左翼幼稚革命相对应的是右翼的残酷镇压。


Dictatorships proliferated, from Brazil and Argentina to Uruguay and Chile, all the way to El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras in Central America.	独裁专制迅速扩散，从巴西、阿根廷到乌拉圭、智利，并一路波及到中美洲的萨尔瓦多、危地马拉和洪都拉斯。


They, too, made promises, theirs based on law and order and orthodox economic management.	他们同样作出承诺，但他们的承诺是基于法律秩序和正统的经济管理学。


Today in Latin America only a lunatic fringe believes such promises.	今天，在拉美只有狂人才会相信这样的承诺。


When the going gets tough, no one turns to the military barracks anymore.	当世道变得艰难，没有人再到军营去求助。


As former Brazilian president Fernando Henrique Cardoso pointed out recently, in the midst of his country’s political crisis everyone now knows the names of prosecuting judges, but no one knows the names of leading generals.	正如巴西前总统费尔南多·恩里克·卡多佐日前指出的那样，在巴西国内发生的政治危机中，起诉法官的名字家喻户晓，但将领的名字却没人说得出。


That is progress, however hard earned.	无论得来有多么不易，这就是一种进步。


Aside from Cuba, the saddest reminder of Latin America’s tragic mistakes of the past is Venezuela.	除古巴外，最容易令人回想起拉美过去悲剧性错误的莫过于委内瑞拉。


The country, ruled since 1999 by populist Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolas Máduro, has gone from a political crisis to a full-fledged humanitarian disaster, with no food in stores or medicines in clinics.	该国从1999年后由民粹主义领袖乌戈·查韦斯及其继任者尼古拉斯·马杜罗统治，现已从政治危机逐渐演化为一场全面的人道主义灾难，仓库里没有粮食、诊所里也没有药品。


The Financial Times reports that, according to the Venezuelan National Assembly, “17 years of chavismo have seen more than $425 billion of public money stolen or wasted.”	金融时报报道援引委内瑞拉国民大会的说法，“长达17年的查韦斯主义见证了超过4250亿公共资金被浪费或盗用。 ”


No one knows how, but with the Colombian tragedy over, the Venezuelan tragedy seems destined to end sooner rather than later.	没人知道会怎么收场，随着哥伦比亚悲剧的结束，委内瑞拉悲剧似乎注定早晚也会终结。


Chavismo today inspires no one.	今天，查韦斯主义已经激励不了任何人。


The copycat regimes it spawned around Latin America are gone or severely weakened.	拉美各地如雨后春笋般出现的各种山寨政权或者已经倒台，或者遭到了严重的削弱。


Just as Europe, post-Brexit, seems to be moving toward nationalism and populism, Latin America is heading in the opposite direction.	就像后英国脱欧期的欧洲似乎走向了民族主义和民粹主义，拉美正在引导一股朝着相反方向的潮流。


With any luck, the era of the mountain guerrilla, the irate demagogue in green fatigues, or the frightful general in dark glasses is over in the Americas.	运气好的话，山地游击队、身着绿色迷彩的愤怒的煽动者、戴着黑墨镜的令人恐惧的将军随处可见的时代在美洲已经结束。


What comes next is the era of the prudent politician in a boring blue suit who acknowledges that hard problems have no easy solutions, and who spurns towering promises in favor of Churchillian sweat and toil.	随之而来的是身着无聊蓝西装的谨小慎微的政客，他们承认困难的问题没有容易的解决办法，鄙视空洞的承诺，赞成丘吉尔式的汗水和劳作。


We may finally be growing up politically.	我们或许终于在政治上走向了成熟。


Santos himself in Colombia, Mauricio Macri in Argentina, and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in Peru are emblematic of this new period.	哥伦比亚的桑托斯、阿根廷的毛里西奥·马克里和秘鲁的佩德罗巴勃罗·库琴斯基是这个新时代的象征。


They are all capable managers and highly trained technocrats.	他们都是有能力的管理者和��练有素的技术官僚。


Steering the economy forward without populism – and the inflation and fiscal crisis that always go with it – is their principal challenge and possibly will be their most publicized achievement.	在摈弃民粹主义——以及往往随之而来的通货膨胀和财政危机——的情况下发展经济是他们所面临的主要挑战，或许也将成为他们最广为人知的成就。


But they should not rely on technocratic prowess alone as the key to legitimacy and political success.	但他们不能仅以技术实力作为合法性和政治成功的基础。


Today’s Latin Americans have grown disenchanted with vain revolutionary promises, but they also look at their liberal democratic institutions – and the people who lead them – with a skeptical eye.	今天的拉美民众已经厌烦了虚浮的革命承诺，但他们同样以怀疑的目光注视着自由民主机构——以及上述机构的领导者。


This is understandable in a region where income inequality, unresponsive bureaucracy, and opaque businesses practices are still very much a feature of everyday life.	在收入不平等、官僚机构反应迟钝和商业行为不透明仍然是日常生活特色的地区，这种状况是可以理解的。


In Europe and Latin America, voters today need to feel that their leaders’ hearts are in the right place, and that they are acting on behalf of everyone, including the underprivileged, not merely serving a rich elite.	在欧洲和拉美，今天的选民需要感受到领袖的心是公平的，他们代表所有人（包括弱势群体）采取行动，而非仅仅服务于富裕的精英阶层。


The ultimate goals of sound policy are ethical, and they ought to be described in those terms.	健全政策的最终目标及对目标的描述必须全部符合道德。


When a leader mismanages a middle-income economy so terribly that people go hungry –as Chávez and Maduro have done in Venezuela – that is an immoral act.	当领袖对中等收入经济管理不善以至于导致民众挨饿——就像查韦斯和马杜罗在委内瑞拉所做的那样——这种行为是不道德的。


Hunger causes avoidable human suffering, a clear moral wrong.	饥饿导致的人类苦难本来可以避免，这显然是一种道德错误。


Seeking consensus, avoiding demagoguery, pursuing incremental and, therefore, sustainable solutions – none of that sounds terribly epic, but it is profoundly moral.	寻求共识、避免煽动、追求增量从而实现可持续发展——上述目标听起来似乎都不是那么伟大，但却深刻而且合乎道德。


If democratic leaders in Latin America can get that message across, then the era inaugurated by the Colombian peace agreement will be a long and happy one.	如果拉美领导人能让民众理解其中的道理，那么哥伦比亚和平协议所开启的时代将是漫长而幸福的。


Colombia’s Gift to the World	哥伦比亚送给世界的礼物


MADRID – After four long years of talks in Havana, Cuba, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has negotiated an end to successive governments’ armed conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the most resilient insurgent group in Latin America.	马德里——在古巴哈瓦那长达4年的会谈结束后，哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯与拉丁美洲实力最强的叛乱组织哥伦比亚革命武装力量（FARC）谈判达成了结束哥伦比亚历届政府与该组织武装冲突的协议。


Colombia’s civil war, which lasted for six decades, has killed an estimated 220,000 people and displaced another six million.	历时60年的哥伦比亚内战造成约 220,000 人死亡及600万人流离失所。


Ending it was a remarkable feat of diplomacy, and Santos deserves the world’s applause.	结束这场战争是一项了不起的外交成就，桑托斯理应赢得全世界的掌声。


Indeed, he should be far and away the leading candidate for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.	事实上，他在本年度诺贝尔和平奖的角逐中应当遥遥领先于其他竞争对手。


Three significant factors led to the peace accord: the Colombian armed forces’ increased effectiveness, which enabled them to decimate the FARC’s ranks; Santos’s previous diplomatic groundwork, wherein he repaired Colombia’s previously fraught relations with neighboring Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia, an axis that had long contributed to sustaining the FARC by providing logistical and political support; and, finally, Cuba’s new policy of rapprochement with the United States, which Santos was wise to exploit in his own efforts to make peace.	有三大关键因素最终导致了和平协议的签订：哥伦比亚政府军效率提高并大批消灭叛军； 桑托斯之前打下的外交基础，修复了哥伦比亚与委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚等邻国磕磕绊绊的关系，由这3个邻国组成的轴心一直在为哥伦比亚革命武装力量提供后勤和政治方面的支持；


With the conditions for negotiations in place, Santos also had to address the root cause of the conflict.	随着谈判条件日臻成熟，桑托斯还必须化解冲突的根本原因。


He did this by signing the Victims and Land Restitution Law in June 2011, in the presence of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.	2011年6月他当着联合国秘书长潘基文的面签署了被害人与土地赔偿法。


The law was a watershed, because it simultaneously pacified violent regions, delivered justice for millions of dispossessed peasants, radically improved standards of living, and blunted the appeal of a guerrilla group that used the banner of land reform to justify its untold atrocities.	因为同时平定暴力地区、为成百上千万破产农民伸张正义、极大改善生活水平并有效阻止游击力量以土地改革为名行大规模屠杀之实，上述法律成为哥伦比亚和平的分水岭。


It even drew praise from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in Colombia for its special provisions for women and children survivors of human rights abuses, and for those targeted for their perceived sexual orientation.	该法有关侵犯人权行为中妇女儿童幸存者和因性取向而遭袭者的特别规定甚至得到了联合国驻哥伦比亚高级人权专员的赞誉。


While not flawless, the Victims and Land Restitution Law clearly helped pave the way for peace and national reconciliation in Colombia.	尽管并非无懈可击，但被害人及土地赔偿法显然为哥伦比亚和平及民族和解铺平了道路。


Indeed, none other than the FARC’s former leader, Alfonso Cano (the nom de guerre of Guillermo Sáenz Vargas), acknowledged this in 2011.	事实上，在2011年承认这一点的恰恰是名为阿方索·卡诺（吉列尔莫·萨恩斯·巴尔加斯的化名）的哥伦比亚革命武装力量前领导人。


Inevitably, the Colombian government’s transitional-justice regime to end the conflict and re-assimilate the FARC into the Colombian political process has some detractors, and has divided the Colombian electorate.	哥伦比亚政府过渡司法体制结束冲突并重新吸收哥伦比亚革命武装力量加入哥伦比亚政治进程不可避免地有一些批评者，并在哥伦比亚选民当中造成一定的分歧。