Private health insurance would make such excessive saving unnecessary by pooling relatively small premiums from individuals – or from their employers – and then paying out to those who are hit with large medical bills.	私人健康保险能够将来自个人——或他们的雇主——的相对较小的保险金集中起来，为遭遇大病者支付高额医药费，从而让过度储蓄不再必不可少。


Thus, by encouraging the purchase of health insurance by individuals or employers, the Chinese government could reduce significantly the overall household saving rate.	因此，中国政府可以通过鼓励个人或雇主购买健康保险大大降低家庭总储蓄率。


Individuals who have such insurance would be better off, because they would not face the risk of large medical bills and would be able to spend more on other forms of consumption.	拥有这类保险的个人境况将得到改善，因为他们不再需要面对大额医药费的风险，从而能够将更多的钱用于各种消费。


The most direct way to encourage the purchase of health insurance would be to exclude employer payments for such insurance from employees’ taxable income.	鼓励购买健康保险的最直接方式是将雇主购买保险开支从雇员应税所得中扣除。


That has been a very effective incentive for the purchase of private insurance in the United States and Britain.	在美国和英国，这都是非常有效的购买私人保险的激励。


Tax benefits could also be extended to individual purchases of health insurance by allowing individuals to deduct the premiums that they pay from their taxable incomes.	税收优惠还可以扩大到个人购买健康保险行为，办法是在个人应税所得中扣除保险费。


Tax incentives are now used in China to encourage employer plans for retirement saving.	目前，中国在鼓励雇主退休金储蓄方面动用了税收激励。


The Chinese government recently modified the tax law to exclude employers’ contributions to employee pension plans from taxable income and to allow the funds in those plans to accumulate tax-free.	中国政府最近修改了税法，将雇主支付雇员退休金计划开支从应税所得中扣除，并且养老金计划中所累计的资金均可免税。


This tax-favored employee saving plan is a good substitute for more comprehensive social-security pensions, but it has had the undesirable effect of increasing household saving, rather than increasing consumer spending.	这一有税收优惠的雇员储蓄计划是更全面的社会保障退休金的优质替代品，但也有增加家庭储蓄而非消费支出的副作用。


By contrast, a similar tax rule to exempt employer payments for health insurance would reduce national saving by causing employees to substitute health insurance for large personal cash accumulations.	相反，为雇主支付健康保险开支提供税收豁免可以让雇员用健康保险代替大量个人现金储备，从而有助于减少国民储蓄。


If the Chinese government does use this approach to stimulate the purchase of insurance, it should limit the favorable tax treatment to insurance for expensive medical conditions like surgery or the treatment of diabetes.	如果中国政府果真使用这一方法刺激购买保险，应该将税收优惠限于对昂贵医疗情况（如手术或糖尿病治疗）的保险上。


In other words, tax-favored health-insurance policies should have high deductibles.	换句话说，能获得税收优惠的健康保险应该自付比例较高。


It is the fear of having to pay for expensive medical conditions that now drives individuals to accumulate substantial cash reserves.	目前，害怕昂贵医疗情况让个人不得不积累巨额现金储备。


And focusing the favorable tax treatment on such major risk insurance would reduce the wasteful distortion to spend more on minor health conditions that do not stimulate household saving and do not need insurance protection.	将有利税收待遇集中于这类重大风险保险能减少浪费性扭曲，以免将更多的钱花在并非家庭储蓄刺激因素、也不需要保险的次要健康状况上。


A general expansion of health insurance would also lead to an increase in the provision of hospital services.	健康保险的总体扩张还能增加医疗服务供给量。


Private providers will enter the market when they see that insurance has increased demand for such services.	如果保险刺激了这类需求，私人供给者也将进入医疗市场。


And the Chinese government will be able to expand the provision of health services without having to pay for them, because consumers’ insurance will be available to pick up the tab.	中国政府可以在不必买单的情况下扩大医疗服务供给，因为消费者可以用保险付账。


In short, favorable tax treatment of the purchase of insurance for major medical costs would reduce the national saving rate, increase consumer spending, lower the public’s anxiety about the cost of treatment, and increase the quantity of health care.	简言之，对购买昂贵医疗成本保险实施税收优待将降低国民储蓄率，增加消费支出，降低公众对医药费负担的焦虑，并提高医疗数量。


The sooner the authorities act, the faster the Chinese Dream will be realized.	当局越快行动起来，中国梦就能越早实现。


Fighting the Fed	对抗美联储


CAMBRIDGE – The US Federal Reserve is battling with members of Congress over a proposed law, the Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act, that would require the Fed to use a formal rule to guide monetary policy.	发自剑桥——美联储正就一项法律提案与国会议员进行交锋，该法案名为美国联邦储备委员会问责制和透明度法案，要求美联储使用正式的规则来指导货币政策。


The Fed fears that the law would limit its independence, while the bill’s proponents argue that it would produce more predictable growth with low inflation.	美联储担心法律会限制其独立性，而该法案的支持者认为，这将产生更多可预测的低通胀经济增长。


Who is right?	谁才是正确的呢?


In order to understand the conflict, it is useful to compare the Fed’s independence with that of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.	为了理解这一冲突，有必要在此将美联储的独立性与英格兰银行及欧洲央行进行一些比较。


In Britain, the BoE has “instrument independence” but not “target independence.”	在英国，英格兰银行拥有“工具独立性”而不是“目标独立性”。


The head of the Treasury sets a goal for the inflation rate and leaves it to the BoE to decide which policies will achieve that goal.	财政部设定目标通货膨胀率，由英格兰银行决定采用何种政策来实现这一目标。


If the target is missed by more than one percentage point on either side, the BoE’s governor must send an open letter to the head of the Treasury explaining why (and what the Bank proposes to do about it).	如果结果偏离超过1%而不能实现目标，行长就必须向财政部发送一封公开信解释原因（以及央行提议应当采取什么措施进行补救）。


By contrast, the Maastricht Treaty tasked the ECB with maintaining “price stability,” but left it free to provide its own operational definition.	相比之下，《马斯特里赫特条约》要求欧洲央行维持“物价稳定”，但任由其自由制定自身操作规程。


The ECB defined price stability to be annual inflation of less than but close to 2%.	欧洲央行将物价稳定定义为年通胀率低于但接近2%。


Given the structure of the European Monetary Union, there is no government oversight of the ECB, which thus has both “target independence” and “instrument independence,” though restrictions preclude specific policies.	鉴于欧洲货币联盟的架构，没有政府来监管欧洲央行，虽然也有相关约束条件对具体政策进行限制，但也同时存在“目标独立”和“工具独立”。


The Fed is “independent,” but only in a very special sense: vis-à-vis the government’s executive branch.	美联储是“独立”的，但只在一个非常特殊的意义：相对于政府的行政部门。


While the US president can instruct administrative agencies like the Commerce Department or the Treasury Department to take specific actions (as long as they do not conflict with valid legislation), the administration cannot tell the Fed how to manage interest rates, reserve requirements, or any other aspects of monetary policy.	虽然美国总统可以指导像商务部和财政部这样的行政机构采取具体行动（只要不与现行法律法规相冲突），政府不能指令美联储如何管理利率、准备金率，或任何其他方面的货币政策。


But, though the Fed is independent of the White House, it is not independent of Congress.	尽管美联储独立于白宫，但它不是独立于国会。


The Fed was created by Congressional legislation that now stipulates a “dual mandate” of price stability and maximum employment.	美联储由国会立法建立，规定其当前的“双重使命”是稳定物价及充分就业。


It is up to the Fed to formulate operational definitions of these goals and the policies it will pursue to achieve them.	美联储致力于制定这些目标的具体可执行目标，并制定政策去实现它们。


The proposed legislation would affect both “target” and “instrument” independence.	而上文提到的法案则将同时影响其“目标”和“工具”独立性。


The Fed decided to define price stability as a “two percent annual inflation over the medium term of the price index of consumer expenditures.”	美联储决定将物价稳定定义为“中期物价指数消费支出条件下平均2%的年度通胀”。


For the past 12 months, that rate of increase has been about 1.5%.	在过去12个月里，增长率约为1. 5%。


While full employment has not been defined, many economists believe it is equivalent to an unemployment rate of about 5.5%.	充分就业并没有定义，许多经济学家认为这相当于约为5. 5%的失业率。


The most recent rate was 6.1%.	而最近的失业率是6. 1%。


Reflecting the fear that the Fed’s current policy of sustained low interest rates will lead to higher inflation, the law would require the Fed to adopt a formal procedure for setting its key short-term interest rate, the “federal funds rate.”	出于对当前美联储保持低利率政策将导致更高通胀的担忧，该法案将要求美联储采取正式的程序设置其核心短期利率——“联邦基金利率”。


More specifically, the law suggests a specific interest-rate rule (the Reference Policy Rule) while giving the Fed the opportunity to adopt a different rule if it explains to Congress why it prefers the alternative.	更具体地说，法律表明了一个特定的利率规则（参考政策规则），并给美联储机会采用不同的规则的机会，只要它能向国会解释为什么更喜欢选择后者。


The Reference Policy Rule is essentially the rule first proposed in 1993 by John Taylor of Stanford University, based on his statistical estimate of what the Fed appeared to have been doing under Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan during a period of both low inflation and low unemployment.	参考政策规则本质上是由斯坦福大学的约翰·泰勒（John Taylor）根据美联储在保罗•沃尔克（Paul Volcker）和艾伦•格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）在任期间的低通货膨胀和低失业率的统计估算，于1993年首次提出。


It states that the federal funds rate should be 2% plus the current inflation rate plus one-half of the difference between current and target inflation and one-half of the percentage difference between current and full-employment GDP.	这个规则认为联邦基金利率应该是2%加上当前的通货膨胀率加上当前和目标通货膨胀之间差异的一半，再加上当前��充分就业时GDP之间百分比差异的一半。


All of this implies that if the economy is at full employment and targeted inflation, the federal funds rate should equal 2% plus the rate of inflation.	所有这一切意味着，如果经济处于充分就业并完成了设定的通胀目标，联邦基金利率应该等于2%加上通胀率。


It should be higher if the inflation rate is above the target level and lower if current GDP is less than the full-employment level.	如果通胀率高于目标则联邦基金利率更高，如果当前GDP低于充分就业时期的水平，那么联邦基金利率就更低。


Given uncertainty about the level of full-employment GDP, this rule still leaves the Fed substantial discretion.	考虑到充分就业的GDP水平的不确定性，这条规则仍给美联储保留了自由裁量权。


The Fed could argue that the gap between current and full-employment GDP is larger than the 6.1% unemployment rate implies, owing to the large number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment and the sharp decline in the labor force participation rate.	美联储可能认为，当前和充分就业时期GDP比6. 1%的失业率所暗示的差异还要大，因为大量的兼职工人宁愿全职就业以及劳动力参与率大幅下滑。


If the GDP gap is 4%, as a recent Congressional Budget Office estimate implied, the Taylor rule would indicate an optimal federal funds rate of about 1.25% (2 + 1.5 – 0.25 – 2), compared to the current rate of only 0.1%.	如果正如最近国会预算办公室估计的那样，GDP的差距是4%，那么泰勒规则表明的最佳联邦基金利率约为1. 25%（2 + 1.


While the federal funds rate may be heading to 1% over the next 12 or 18 months, by then the narrowing GDP gap will imply an even higher Taylor-rule interest rate.	尽管联邦基金利率可能在未来12或18个月上升到1%，但那时GDP差距的缩小意味着泰勒规则的更高利率。


And, complicating things further, given US banks’ vast holdings of excess reserves as a result of the Fed’s bond-buying policies (quantitative easing), the federal funds rate is no longer the key policy rate that it once was.	并且，事情进一步复杂化，由于美联储的债券购买政策（量化宽松政策）导致美国银行大量持有超额准备金，联邦基金利率已不再是关键政策利率。


Instead, the Fed will be focusing on the interest rate on excess reserves.	取而代之，美联储将专注于超额准备金的利率。


The proposed legislation is full of excessive and impossible requirements, and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives may not be able to pass it, even in modified form.	提议的法案充满过度和不可能的需求，即使是修改的形式，共和党控制的众议院也不可能通过。


Even if it does, it will not get through the Democratic-controlled Senate.	即使通过，也不会通过民主党控制的参议院。


But if the Republicans hold a Senate majority after the next election, some form of legislation requiring a monetary-policy rule could land on the president’s desk.	但如果共和党在下次大选中获得多数席位，某种形式的货币政策规则的要求会摆在总统的办公桌上。


He or she might veto it, but a Republican president after the 2016 election might not.	总统可能会否决它，但如果2016年大选后共和党总统当选，则可能不会。


The Fed no doubt fears that if the principle of requiring a formal rule is accepted, Congress could tighten the requirement, forcing a more restrictive monetary policy.	美联储无疑会担心：如果正式规则的需求原则被接受，国会可以加强要求，迫使实施更严格的货币政策。


That is why the new Fed chair, Janet Yellen, forcefully opposed such legislation in recent congressional testimony.	这就是为什么美联储新主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）会在最近的国会声明中极力反对这一立法。


One thing is certain: The bill will put pressure on the Fed to pay more attention to inflation, avoiding a persistent rate above its own 2% target.	有一件事是肯定的：法案施加压力将使美联储更加关注通货膨胀，避免通胀率持续高于2%的目标。


Otherwise, the Fed’s operational independence could be restricted, forcing it to focus its policies more sharply on its inflation mandate.	否则，美联储的运作独立性可能会受到限制，迫使它在控制通胀任务方面更明确地制定其政策。


The Greek Budget Myth	希腊预算神话


CAMBRIDGE – Recently, newspaper headlines declared that Greece would have a balanced budget for 2013 as a whole.	美国剑桥—最近，报纸标题纷纷写道希腊将在2013年实现总体预算平衡。


The news came as quite a shock: Recall that when Greek officials came clean about the true state of their country’s public finances in 2010, the budget deficit was more than 10% of GDP – a moment of statistical honesty that triggered the eurozone debt crisis.	这则消息相当令人震惊：回想一下，2010年希腊官员老实坦白该国公共财政状况时，预算赤字超过了GDP的10%——这一数字真相大白的时刻触发了欧元区债务危机。


It seemed too good to be true that the Greek deficit would be completely eliminated in just three years.	短短三年希腊就完全抹平了赤字，这看起来过于美好了。


In fact, it is too good to be true.	事实上，这确实过于美好了。


Any reader who went beyond the headlines soon discovered that the prediction of a zero budget deficit was in fact misleading.	只要你稍稍深读一下新闻内容，很快就能发现，关于零预算赤字的预测事实上是误导。


The International Monetary Fund was predicting only that Greece would have a zero “primary” budget deficit in 2013.	国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测2013年为零的是希腊的“初级”预算。


A “primary” budget deficit (or surplus) is the difference between a government’s outlays for everything excluding the interest payments that it must pay on its debt and its receipts from taxes and other charges.	“初级”预算赤字（或盈余）是政府除必须支付的利息以外的所有花费与其得自税收和其他权力的收入之差。


In the case of Greece, the interest payments apply to government debt held by Greek individuals and institutions, as well as to government debt held by the IMF, the European Central Bank, and other foreign lenders.	对希腊来说，需要支付利息的包括希腊个人和机构持有的政府债务以及IMF、欧洲央行和其他外国债权人持有的政府债务。


The overall budget deficit is still predicted to be 4.1% of Greece’s GDP in 2013 – a substantial improvement compared to 2010 but still far from fiscal balance.	2013年希腊总预算赤字预计仍将高达GDP的4. 1%——与2010年相比进步很大，但远远称不上财政平衡。


The difference between the overall deficit and the primary deficit implies that the interest on the Greek national debt this year will be 4.1% of GDP.	总赤字和初级赤字的差异意味着希腊国民债务利息将是GDP的4. 1%。


Moreover, the Greek government’s interest payments are exceptionally low.	此外，希腊政府的利息支付非常低。 考虑到今年其债务水平仍为GDP的170%，GDP的4.


Given that its debt will still be about 170% of GDP this year, the 4.1%-of-GDP interest bill implies that the Greek government pays an average interest rate of just 2.4% – far less than the nearly 9% rate that the market is now charging on ten-year Greek government bonds.	1%的利息账单意味着希腊政府的平均利率只有2. 4%——远低于目前希腊十年期政府债券的市场利率（近9%）。


The difference reflects a combination of the lower rate on short-term debt and the highly favorable terms on which Greece is now able to borrow from official lenders at the IMF and the ECB.	这一差异综合反映了短期利率较低和希腊从官方贷款人（IMF和欧洲央行）借钱所获得的极其优渥的条件。


If Greece had to borrow at the market interest rate on ten-year bonds, its deficit would rise by 6.5% of the Greek government debt or 11% of GDP.	如果希腊必须按十年期债券的市场利率借钱，则其赤字将升至希腊政府债务的6. 5%或GDP的11%。


In this case, the overall Greek deficit would be about 15% of GDP, putting its debt on a rapidly exploding path.	在这一状况下，希腊总赤字将在GDP的15%左右，其债务水平可谓膨胀迅速。


Greece’s economic weakness increases the current level of the deficit.	希腊经济的不振增加了当前赤字水平。


Five years of declining GDP have depressed tax receipts and increased transfer payments.	五年来，GDP的下降抑制了税收收入，增加了转移支付。


The IMF estimates that these cyclical effects on revenue and outlays have raised the overall deficit by nearly 5% of Greek GDP.	IMF测算，收入和开支的周期效应对总赤字的提高效果为接近希腊GDP的5%。


On a cyclically adjusted basis, Greece’s overall budget would show a surplus of 0.6% of GDP this year.	若按经周期调整的口径计算，今年希腊总预算将出现相当于GDP的0. 6%的盈余。


This also implies that if Greece could escape from its current recession, its national debt would decline, both absolutely and as a share of GDP.	这也意味着，如果希腊可以走出当前的衰退，那么不管按绝对水平还是按占GDP比重计算，其国民债务都将减少。


More generally, the national debt of any country grows by the size of its budget deficit or declines by the size of its budget surplus.	更一般地说，一国国民债务总是随着其预算赤字规模升高而升高，随着其预算盈余规模升高而降低。


Even an economy with an overall budget deficit will have a declining government debt/GDP ratio if the growth rate of its nominal GDP exceeds that of its debt.	即使一个经济体存在总体预算赤字，如果名义GDP增长率超过债务，其政府债务/GDP比率也��降低。 希腊的总赤字为GDP的4.


For Greece, with an overall deficit of 4.1% of GDP and a debt/GDP ratio of 170%, the debt ratio would fall if the combination of inflation and real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth exceeded 2.4%.	1%，债务/GDP比率为170%，如果通货膨胀和真实（经通胀调整的）GDP的组合超过2. 4%，其债务水平也会下降。


Stated differently, now that Greece has achieved a zero primary budget deficit, its debt burden will decline if its nominal growth rate exceeds the average interest that it pays on its government debt.	换句话说，如今希腊已经实现了零初级预算赤字，如果其名义增长率超过其政府债务的平均利率，则其债务负担将会降低。


Budget deficits and the resulting national debt are important not only in themselves; they also contribute to a country’s current-account deficit, which is the difference between its level of domestic investment by businesses and households in structures and equipment and the amount that it saves to finance those investments.	预算赤字及其所导致的国民债务之所以重要，不仅在于它们本身，还在于它们对一国经常项目赤字的作用，后者是来自企业和家庭对建筑和设备国内投资与其为这些投资所做的储蓄水平之差。


That amount, which includes the saving of businesses and households, is reduced by the amount that the government borrows.	这个数字——它包括了企业和家庭储蓄——要减去政府所借的钱的数量。


In the case of Greece, the saving of businesses and households exceeds the level of investment in businesses and housing by just enough to outweigh the dissaving by the government, resulting in a very small current-account surplus.	在希腊的例子中，企业和家庭储蓄超出企业和住房投资的幅度正好足以抵消政府储蓄不足，这意味着非常小的经常项目盈余。


Stated differently, Greece is now able to finance its current level of consumption and investment, including government and private spending, without relying on capital inflows from the rest of the world.	换句话说，目前希腊能够为其当前水平的消费和投资（包括政府和私人支出）融资，不需要依靠来自世界其他部分的资本流入。


Looking ahead, the IMF predicts that Greece will have a gradually rising primary surplus and a gradually declining overall deficit over the next several years.	在未来几年中，IMF预测希腊将出现逐渐上升的初级盈余和逐渐下降的总赤字。


But, unless Greece is able to increase its rate of economic growth, the budget will remain in deficit and the debt will remain at nearly its current share of GDP.	但是，除非希腊能够提高其经济增长率，否则其预算将依然是赤字，其债务占GDP比重将依然在当前水平徘徊。


Obamacare’s Fatal Flaw	奥巴马医改的致命漏洞


CAMBRIDGE – Obamacare, officially known as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, is the health-insurance program enacted by US President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats over the unanimous opposition of congressional Republicans.	美国剑桥—奥巴马医改——正式名称叫做患者保护和平价医疗法（Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act）——是美国总统奥巴马和国会民主党议员发起、克服了国会共和党议员一致反对而实施的医疗保险计划。


It was designed to cover those Americans without private or public health insurance – about 15% of the US population.	其设计初衷是为了覆盖没有私人和公共健康保险的美国人——大概占美国人口的15%。


Opponents of Obamacare have failed to stop it in the courts and, more recently, in Congress.	奥巴马医改的反对者没能在法院阻止它，最近在国会再次受挫。


The program was therefore formally launched on October 1.	奥巴马医改也因此在10月1日正式发布。


Although it has been hampered by a wide range of computer problems and other technical difficulties, the program is likely to be operating by sometime in 2014.	尽管各种电脑问题和其他技术困难重重，但该计划仍将在2014年开始运行。


The big question is whether it will function as intended and survive permanently.	大问题在于它是否能如预料中那样运转并永久持续。


There is a serious risk that it will not.	答案极有可能是否定的。


The potentially fatal flaw in Obamacare is the very same feature that appeals most to its supporters: the ability of even those with a serious preexisting health condition to buy insurance at the standard premium.	奥巴马医改的潜在致命漏洞正是其吸引大部分支持者的特色：已经存在严重健康状况的人也可以以标准费用购买保险。


That feature will encourage those who are not ill to become or remain uninsured until they have a potentially costly medical diagnosis.	这一特色将鼓励没病的人脱保或直到需要负担沉重医药费时再投保。


The resulting shift in enrollment away from low-cost healthy patients to those with predictably high costs will raise insurance companies’ cost per insured person, driving up the premiums that they must charge.	因此，投保者中低成本健康患者的数量将下降，而潜在成本很高的患者数量将上升，这一变化将提高保险公司的平均被保险人成本，迫使保险公司提高保费。


As premiums rise, even more relatively healthy individuals will be encouraged to forego insurance until illness strikes, causing average costs and premiums to rise further.	随着保费的升高，将鼓励更多的相对健康个人直到疾病上身才去投保，从而导致平均成本和保费进一步提高。


With this in mind, Obamacare’s drafters made the purchase of insurance “mandatory.”	奥巴马医改的起草者考虑到了这一点，因此将购买保险作为“强制”条件。


More specifically, employers with more than 50 employees will be required after 2014 to purchase an approved insurance policy for their “full-time” employees.	更具体地说，2014年后，雇员超过50人的雇主将被要求为其“全职”雇员购买经核准的保单。


Individuals who do not receive insurance from their employers are required to purchase insurance on their own, with low-income buyers receiving a government subsidy.	没有从雇主处获得保险的个人被要求自己购买保险，低收入购买者将获得政府补贴。


But neither the employer mandate nor the personal requirement is likely to prove effective.	但不论是雇主强制购买还是个人要求购买都不可能有效。


Employers can avoid the mandate by reducing an employee’s workweek to less than 30 hours (which the law defines as full-time employment).	雇主可以通过把雇员的周工作时长降低到30小时（法定全职工作时间标准）以下。


But even for full-time employees, firms can opt to pay a relatively small fine rather than provide insurance.	但即使是对全职雇员，企业也可以选择支付相对较少的罚款，而不提供保险。


That fine is $2,000 per employee, much less than the current average premium of $16,000 for employer-provided family policies.	罚金为每人2 000美元，远远少于目前雇主家庭保单费用的平均成本16 000美元。


Not providing insurance and paying the fine is a particularly attractive option for a firm if its employees have incomes that entitle them to the government subsidies (which are now available to anyone whose income is below four times the poverty level).	对于雇员收入符合政府补贴标准（目前的标准是低于贫困线四倍）的企业来说，不提供保险而支付罚金尤其具有吸引力。


Rather than incur the cost of the premium for an approved policy, a smart employer can pay the fine for not providing insurance and increase employees’ pay by enough so that they have more spendable cash after purchasing the subsidized insurance policy.	明智的雇主将不用承担核准保单的保险费成本，而选择不提供保险、支付罚金，然后提高雇员薪水，使他们在购买了补贴保单后拥有更多的可支配现金。


Even after both payments, employers can be better off financially.	即使在支付罚金、提高薪水之后，雇主也有可能有利可图。


News reports indicate that many employers are already taking such steps.	新闻报道表明许多雇主已在采取这一做法。


But the biggest danger to Obamacare’s survival is that many individuals who do not receive insurance from their employer will choose not to insure themselves and will instead pay the fine of just 1% of income (rising permanently after 2015 to 2.5%).	但奥巴马医保能否成功的最大威胁在于大量没有从雇主处获得保险的个人将选择不为自己保险，而选择支付占收入1%的罚金（2015年后将永久提高到2.


The preferred alternative for these individuals is to wait to buy insurance until they are ill and are facing large medical bills.	5%）。 这些个人的偏好选择是等到有病、面临大额医疗账单时再投保。


That wait-to-insure strategy makes sense if the medical condition is a chronic disease like diabetes or a condition requiring surgery, like cancer or a hernia.	如果健康问题是糖尿病这样的慢性病，或者是癌症疝气等需要动手术的问题，那么等到需要时再保险策略就相当明智。


In either case, the individual would be able to purchase insurance after he or she receives the diagnosis.	不管哪种情况，个人都可以在获得治疗后再买保险。


But what about conditions like a heart attack or injuries sustained in an automobile accident?	但若遇到心脏病突发或车祸情形怎么办？


In those cases, the individual would not have time to purchase the health insurance that the law allows.	此时，个人将没有时间购买法律允许的健康保险。


If they are not insured in advance, they will face major hospital bills that could cause serious financial hardship or even cause them not to receive needed care.	如果他们事先没有保险，将面临巨额医药费账单，造成严重的财务困境甚至让他们无法获得所需的看护。


Anyone contemplating that prospect might choose to forego the wait-to-insure strategy and enroll immediately.	任何考虑过这一情形的人都会放弃等需要时再保险策略，马上投保。


But private insurance companies could solve that problem by creating a new type of “emergency insurance” that would make enrolling now unnecessary and allow individuals to take advantage of the wait-to-insure option.	但私人保险公司可以通过创造新的“紧急险”解决这个问题，让马上投保变得不再必要，使个人能够利用等需要时再保险策略。


Such insurance would cover the costs that a patient would incur after a medical event that left no time to purchase the policies offered in the Obamacare insurance exchanges.	这种保险将覆盖患者遭遇健康事件而来不及购买奥巴马医改保险的情况下产生的成本。


Emergency insurance might also cover the cost of care until the “open enrollment” period for purchasing insurance at the end of each year (if political pressure does not lead to the repeal of that temporary barrier to insurance).	紧急险还可以覆盖看护成本直到每年末购买保险的“开放注册”期（如果政治压力不会导致保险的临时性壁垒取消的话）。


This type of insurance is very different from existing high-deductible policies.	此类保险与现存可抵税保单大不相同。


Given the very limited scope and unpredictable nature of the conditions that it would cover, the premium for such a policy would be very low.	此类保险的覆盖范围极其有限，覆盖事件具有高度不可预测性，因此保费将相当低。


It would not satisfy the broad coverage requirements that Obamacare mandates, forcing individuals to pay the relatively small penalty for being uninsured and to incur the subsequent cost of buying a full policy if one is needed later.	它不会满足奥巴马医改强制实施的覆盖要求，因此个人将被迫支付相对较少的罚金以获得无保险状态，然后再需要时掏钱购买全面的保险。


But the combination of emergency insurance and the wait-to-insure strategy would still be financially preferable for many individuals, and the number would grow as premiums are driven higher.	但紧急险加需要时再保险策略的组合在财务上对于许多个人来说仍然更加划算，而随着保费的提高，这样的人还会增加。


Employers with a large number of full-time employees could encourage their existing insurance companies to create the emergency policies.	雇用了大量雇员的雇主可以鼓励现有保险公司创造紧急险。


They might even choose to self-insure the emergency risk for their employees.	它们甚至可以选择自己给雇员提供紧急状况保险。


The “wait-to-insure” option could cause the number of insured individuals to decline rapidly as premiums rise for those who remain insured.	“需要时再保险”选择可能导致投保个人大幅下降，而继续选择投保者的保费将上升。


In this scenario, the unraveling of Obamacare could lead to renewed political pressure from the left for a European-style single-payer health-care system.	在这种状况下，奥巴马医改的崩溃将导致来自左翼政治压力卷土重来，要求采取欧洲式的单一支付者健康保险制度。


But it might also provide an opportunity for a better plan: eliminate the current enormously expensive tax subsidy for employer-financed insurance and use the revenue savings to subsidize everyone to buy comprehensive private insurance policies with income-related copayments.	但这也可能为更好的计划提供机会：取消当前十分沉重的补贴雇主出资保险的税收负担，将节省下来的收入用于补贴每一位与收入挂钩的共同支付全能私人险的购买者。


That restructuring of insurance would simultaneously protect individuals, increase labor mobility, and help to control health-care costs.	如此重新构造保险结构将同时实现保护个人、增加劳动力流动性和有助于控制医疗成本的目标。


Bringing It Back Home	让利润回家


CAMBRIDGE – An increasing number of American companies are making plans to shift their headquarters to Europe.	美国剑桥—越来越多的美国公司正在制定计划将总部迁往欧洲。


These so-called “inversions” would reduce these companies’ total tax bill by allowing them to escape from the United States’ uniquely unfavorable corporate tax rules.	这些所谓的“倒置”（inversion）可以让它们摆脱美国独有的不利的公司税规则，降低总税负。


So what should US policymakers do?	那么，美国决策者应该怎样做？


President Barack Obama’s administration is seeking to block corporate inversion through administrative measures that may not hold up in US courts.	总统奥巴马的政府正在通过行政手段试图阻止公司倒置（这些手段未必有法律效力）。


It would be far better to develop a bipartisan legislative plan aimed at removing the temptation to shift corporate headquarters in the first place.	好得多的办法是形成跨党派立法计划，从源头上打消改变前移公司总部的诱惑。


Such a plan, if attractive to US multinational corporations, could result in a shift in employment and production to the US and higher tax revenue.	如果这一计划能够吸引到美国跨国公司，将能改变美国的就业和生产局面，同时增加税收收入。


Under current law, US corporate profits are taxed at a rate of 35% – the highest rate among OECD countries, where the average is 25%.	根据现行法律，美国公司的利润将被课以35%的税——这一税率为经合组织国家（平均为25%）之最。


That tax is paid on profits earned in the US and on repatriated profits earned by US companies’ foreign subsidiaries.	课税的对象是在美国所赚得的利润以及美国公司的外国分支汇回美国的利润。


For example, the subsidiary of a US firm that operates in Ireland pays the Irish corporate tax of 12.5% on the profits earned in that country.	比如，在爱尔兰经营的美国企业分支，需要在爱尔兰支付等于利润的12. 5%的公司税。


If it repatriates the after-tax profits, it pays a 22.5% tax (the difference between the 35% US rate and the 12.5% tax that it already paid to the Irish government).	如果它将这笔税后的利润汇回美国，就要支付22. 5%的税（美国税率35%与已经支付给爱尔兰政府的12.


But if it reinvests the profits in Ireland – or in any other country – no further tax must be paid.	5%的差额）。 但如果它将这笔利润用于在爱尔兰（或任何其他国家）的再投资，将不必进一步缴纳任何税收。


Not surprisingly, American firms prefer to leave those profits abroad, either in financial instruments or by investing in new or existing subsidiaries.	毫不奇怪，美国企业宁愿把利润留在国外，或者通过金融工具，或者通过投资于新的或已有的分支。


As a result, American companies now hold abroad roughly $2 trillion in profits that have never been subject to US tax.	结果，美国公司目前所持有的从未缴纳过美国公司税的利润高达约2万亿美元。


All other OECD countries treat the profits of their companies’ foreign subsidiaries very differently, relying on the so-called “territorial” method of taxing foreign earnings.	其他所有经合组织国家对待本国公司外国分支的利润的方式都十分不同，依靠所谓的“领土”原则对外国盈余征税。


For example, a French firm that invests in Ireland pays the 12.5% Irish corporate tax but is then free to repatriate the after-tax profits with a tax of less than 5%.	比如，投资于爱尔兰的法国企业支付12. 5%的爱尔兰公司税，此后所汇回法国的税后利润只需要缴纳不到5%的税。


America’s current tax system adversely affects the US economy in several ways.	美国的现行税收制度对美国经济造成了多重不利影响。


The extra tax that US firms pay if they repatriate profits raises their cost of capital, thus reducing their ability to compete in international markets.	美国企业若要将利润汇回国内，就要缴纳额外税收，这增加了资本成本，从而制约了它们在国际市场上的竞争力。


Foreign firms can also outbid their US counterparts in acquiring new high-tech firms in other countries.	外国企业也因此能够在他国高科技公司收购竞标中压倒美国公司。


And when a foreign firm acquires a US company, it pays US tax on the profits earned in the US but not on the profits earned by that firm’s other foreign subsidiaries, thus lowering its total tax bill.	而若外国企业收购美国公司，它必须缴纳在美国所赚利润的税，但不必缴纳该公司其他外国分支所赚利润的水，从而降低了总税负。


A shift to a territorial system of taxation would remove the disadvantages faced by American multinational corporations and encourage them to reinvest their overseas profits at home, increasing US employment and profits.	将税收制度改为领土原则能够消除美国跨国公司所面临的劣势，鼓励它们将海外利润转回国内进行再投资，增加美国就业和利润。


Because only a small share of overseas profits is now repatriated, the US government would lose very little tax revenue by shifting to a territorial system.	由于如今只有一小部分海外利润被汇回美国，因此即使将税收制度改为领土原则，美国政府也不会损失多少税收收入。


A few years ago, the US Treasury Department estimated that shifting to a territorial system would reduce corporate tax revenue by only $130 billion over ten years.	几年前，美国财政部估算转向领土原则仅仅会导致税收收入在十年时间里减少1,300亿美元。


It would also be desirable to reduce the US corporate tax rate gradually, bringing it closer to the 25% OECD average.	另一个有利做法是逐渐降低美国的公司税率，向25%的经合组织平均水平靠拢。


That, too, would encourage more repatriation of overseas earnings.	这也能鼓励美国公司将更多的海外利润汇回国内。


Given that American companies have large amounts of profits abroad that have never been subject to US tax, the transition could even be carried out in a way that raises net revenue.	美国公司坐拥巨量海外利润，从未按照美国税法缴过税，因此改变税收制度甚至有可能带来税收收入净增。


In exchange for shifting to a territorial system and reducing the tax rate, the federal government could tax all of these untaxed past earnings at a low rate to be paid over a ten-year period.	作为将税收制度改为领土原则以及降低税率的交换条件，联邦政府可以按照较低的税率，在十年的时间里对未纳税历史盈余课税。


Companies would then be free to repatriate their pre-existing earnings without paying any additional tax, while future foreign earnings could, as in other countries, be repatriated by paying a low 5% tax.	此后，公司将可以把税前盈余回回国内而不必缴纳任何其他税收，与此同时，和其他国家一样，未来外国盈余汇回国内的税率降到5%。


A 10% tax on those existing accumulated foreign earnings would raise about $200 billion over the ten years.	若对这些累积外国盈余课以10%的税率，将能在十年中带来2,000亿美元的收入。


A 15% tax would raise $300 billion.	15%的税率将带来3,000亿美元。


The choice of tax rate would be part of the negotiation over how far to reduce the overall US corporate tax rate.	如何选择税率可以作为关于将美国总体公司税率降低多少的谈判的一部分。


For example, with a 10% tax, a company with $500 million of accumulated overseas earnings would incur a tax liability of $50 million, to be paid over ten years.	比如，按照10%的税率，拥有5亿美元累计海外盈余的公司将负有5,000万美元的纳税义务，并分十年履行。


It could repatriate $500 million at any time with no additional tax liability.	在此期间，它可以随时将这5亿美元汇回，而不必承担任何新增税收义务。


Repatriation of any earnings in excess of $500 million would be subject to a 5% tax.	若汇回盈余超过5亿美元，则超出部分将按照5%的税率征税。


The shift to a territorial system and a lower corporate tax rate would appeal to American multinational corporations even if they had to pay a 10-15% tax on accumulated past earnings.	转向领土原则制度并降低公司税率将吸引美国跨国公司，即使它们必须为累计历史盈余缴纳10—15%的税收。


If Obama is looking for an opportunity to negotiate a bipartisan deal that would strengthen the US economy and increase employment, he should seriously consider such a package of reforms.	如果奥巴马想寻找机会促成跨党派协议，以增强美国经济、增加就业，那么他应该认真考虑这一改革计划。


The Future of American Growth	美国增长的未来


CAMBRIDGE – The near-term outlook for the US economy has improved, owing to the sharp increase in household wealth in 2013, together with the end of the fiscal drag caused by the increase in tax rates in 2012.	发自剑桥——由于家庭财富总额在2013年大幅上升，加上因2012年加税所引发的财政停滞最终得以消除，对美国经济的短期预期近来有所改善。


The United States now has a chance to raise real (inflation-adjusted) per capita GDP faster than the feeble 1.7% average rate recorded during the four years since growth resumed in the summer of 2009.	美国如今有机会去提升实际（计入通胀后）人均GDP，使其高于自2009年夏天恢复增长四年以来平均1. 7%的疲弱增长率。


Of course, significantly faster GDP growth in 2014 is not guaranteed.	当然，2014年的大幅高GDP增长并不是板上钉钉的。


For starters, achieving it requires overcoming the negative impact of the jump in long-term interest rates that followed the Federal Reserve’s announcement last June that it would likely end its asset-purchase program this year.	首先，实现这一增长需要克服长期利率突然上涨的负面影响，因为美联储在去年六月宣布将在今年结束其资产购买计划。


Moreover, the cloud of rising budget deficits at the end of the decade – and exploding national debt after that – is also discouraging investment and consumer spending.	此外，在这十年末期预算赤字上升——以及随后国家负债暴涨——的阴云也在压抑着投资和消费者支出。


But let’s look beyond 2014 and ask what will happen to US economic growth over the longer term.	但让我们把眼光放长点，看看美国经济增长在2014年后的长时期内将如何走向。


The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that real per capita GDP growth will slow from an annual rate of 2.1% in the 40 years before the start of the recent recession to just 1.6% between 2023 and 2088.	国会预算办公室预测实际人均GDP增长将从最近这场衰退之前40年间的年均2. 1%下降到2023至2088年间的仅仅1.


The primary reason for the projected slowdown is the decrease in employment relative to the population, which reflects the aging of American society, a lower birth rate, and a decelerating rise in women’s participation in the labor force.	6%。 这一增长降速预测的主要依据是就业率相对于人口总量的下降，而这正好反映了美国社会的老龄化，出生率降低，以及依然上升但增幅逐渐减少的女性参与就业情况。


While the number of persons working increased by 1.6% per year, on average, from 1970 to 2010, the CBO forecasts that the rate of annual employment growth will fall to just 0.4% in the coming decades.	虽然劳动者数量从1970到2010年间年均增加1. 6%，但国会预算办公室预测在未来十年间年度就业增长会下跌到仅为0.


A drop in annual growth of real per capita GDP from 2.1% to 1.6% looks like a substantial decline.	年度人均GDP增长从2. 1%下跌到1.


But even if these figures are taken at face value as an indication of future living standards, they do not support the common worry that the children of today’s generation will not be as well off as their parents.	6%看似是一个相当大幅的衰退。 但即便这些数字在表面上被视为体现未来生活水平的指标，却也并不意味着那些害怕当代人子女生活会比其父母要差的担忧是有道理的。


An annual per capita growth rate of 1.6% means that a child born today will have a real income that, on average, is 60% higher at age 30 than his or her parents had at the same age.	1. 6%的人均年增长率意味着今天出生的一个婴儿在30岁的时候实际收入要比其父母同龄时要高30%。


Of course, not everyone will experience the average rate of growth.	当然，不是每个人都将经历同样的增长率。


Some will outperform the average 60% rise over the next three decades, and some will not reach that level.	某些人会在未来30年中取得高于60%平均值的增长，而另一些人则达不到这一水平。


But a 30-year-old in 2044 who experiences only half the average growth rate will still have a real income that is nearly 30% higher than the average in 2014.	但在2044年一位只取得了一半平均增长的30岁成年人依然会取得比2014年高出近30%的���际收入。


But things are even better than those numbers imply.	但情况其实比这些数字所显示的要好。


Although government statisticians do their best to gauge the rise in real GDP through time, there are two problems that are very difficult to overcome in measuring real incomes: increases in the quality of goods and services, and the introduction of new ones.	虽然政府统计人员尽其所能去评估实际GDP随时间的增长，但在测量实际收入方面依然存在两个非常难以克服的难题：商品和服务质量的提升，以及新事物的引入。


I believe that both of these problems cause the official measure of real GDP growth to understate the true growth of the standard of living that real GDP is supposed to indicate.	我相信这两个问题都会导致对实际GDP增长的官方测量低于该指标希望反映的生活水平实际增长。


Consider the problem of accounting for quality improvements.	以统计质量改善的问题为例。


If I pay the same price for some product or service this year as I did last year, but the quality of the product or service is better, my standard of living has increased.	如果我今年为某种商品或服务支付了和去年一样的价格，但这些东西的质量有所改善，那么我的生活水平显然有所提高。


The same is true if the price rises but the quality increases even more.	而在价格增加但质量增加更多的情况下也是如此。


Unfortunately, a government statistician cannot judge the increase in quality of everything from restaurant meals to medical care.	不幸的是，一个政府统计人员无法评断从餐馆出品到医疗服务的质量提升。


So looking only at the cost of a meal or of a day in the hospital causes an overestimate in the price index and an underestimate of the rise in the real standard of living.	所以仅仅计算餐饮价格或者是日均医疗支出都会导致价格指数的虚高以及实际生活水平的低估。


The problem of taking new products into account is even more difficult.	而将新事物计算在内的难度则更大。


Virtually everyone around us uses a smart phone, a laptop computer, or a tablet.	基本上我们身边的每一个人都有智能手机，笔记本电脑和平板电脑。


We know what these cost and how much they add to the total nominal value of GDP.	我们知道购置这些东西要花多少钱以及它们对名义GDP总值的贡献。


But how much more than the standard retail price would individuals pay to keep these “must-have” products?	但人们在这些基本零售价之外还为这些“必需”品支付了多少钱？


Likewise, what is the value to patients of laparoscopic surgery or drugs that relieve anxiety or prevent heart attacks?	同样，腹腔镜手术或者服用抗抑郁/预防心脏病药物对病人的价值是否也计算了在内？


In short, I am convinced that the real standard of living produced by the goods and services that we buy is increasing faster than our official data reveal.	简而言之，我确信由我们购买的产品和服务所构筑的实际生活水平要比官方数据所体现的提升更快。


That is true now, and it is likely to continue to be true in the future.	这在当今已是事实，并将继续延续到未来。


That is not a reason for complacency.	这并不是一个自欺欺人的理由。


The US can and should adopt policies that will cause real incomes to rise even faster. But that is a subject for a future column.	美国可以也应当实施一个可以令实际收入更快增长的政策，但这就得留待下一篇专栏去讨论了。


New Hope for India	印度的新希望


CAMBRIDGE – India’s recent general election could be the most important positive economic event of 2014.	美国剑桥—印度的最新选举可能是2014年最重要的积极经济事件。


Indian voters decisively rejected the Congress party, which had governed India virtually without interruption since it gained independence from Britain in 1947.	印度选民果断地拒绝了自1947年脱离英国独立以来几乎一直统治印度的国大党。


They are likely to be happy they did.	他们可能会因为这一决定而感到高兴。


Sonia Gandhi, the head of Congress and the widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, has been the power behind the throne since 1998, turning Prime Minister Manmohan Singh into little more than a figurehead.	国大党党首、前总理拉吉夫·甘地（Rajiv Gandhi）遗孀索尼娅·甘地（Sonia Gandhi）自1998年以来一直在垂帘听政，而总理辛格只不过是一个傀儡。


Under her leadership, Congress has pursued a populist agenda that increased transfer payments and reduced India’s annual economic-growth rate to less than 4% in 2013.	在她的领导下，国大党追求民粹主义日程，增加转移支付，导致印度年经济增长率在2013年下跌至4%以下。


GDP per capita is still only about $4,000, less than half the level in China.	人均GDP仍在4,000美元左右徘徊，不到中国的一半。


The newly elected prime minister, Narendra Modi, campaigned on a platform that promises to deliver to India as a whole the rapid growth in employment and income that the state of Gujarat achieved when he was its chief minister.	新当选总理纳兰德拉·莫迪在竞选中承诺给全印度带来就业和收入的快速增长，就像他出任首席部长的古吉拉特邦那样。


Under Modi’s leadership, Gujarat became a business-friendly state that expanded economic activity, and attracted business investment from both Indian and overseas companies.	在莫迪的领导下，古吉拉特邦成为一个商业友好之邦，经济活动得到了扩张，吸引了来自印度国内外的商业投资。


A remarkable feature of the recent election is that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received an absolute majority in the national parliament, an almost unprecedented achievement in India.	最新选举的一个重要特征是莫迪的印度人民党（BJP）在国民议会中获得了绝对多数，在印度，这可以说是空前的成就。


As a result, Modi will not have to compromise with the other national or regional parties to pursue his legislative agenda.	因此，莫迪不需要与其他全国或地区政党妥协便可以追求其立法日程。


Two key officials will help Modi manage his economic program.	两位关键官员将在经济计划上助莫迪一臂之力。


The new finance minister, Arun Jaitley, is an experienced political leader who served in ministerial positions in previous BJP governments.	新任财政部长阿让·杰特里（Arun Jaitley）政治经验丰富，在前任人民党政府中担任过部长职位。


Jaitley is also known as a strategic thinker who is sympathetic to business interests.	杰特里还以同情商业利益的战略思想家的身份闻名于世。


The head of the Reserve Bank of India (the central bank) will continue to be Raghuram Rajan, a distinguished economist who has already shown his desire to reduce India’s near-double-digit annual inflation rate, and to reform some of the inherited counterproductive restrictions on the country’s financial sector.	拉古兰·拉詹（Raghuram Rajan）将继续担任印度储备银行（央行）行长。 拉詹是一位杰出的经济学家，在印度储备银行行长任上，他表现出降低印度高达两位数的年通货膨胀率的渴望，并试图改革印度金融部门的一些固有的生产率制约因素。


The measures needed to stimulate economic growth will take time to implement and to produce results.	刺激经济增长所需要的措施要假以时日才能得到实施和产生结果。


But anyone who wants to see whether the new government is acting to achieve faster long-term growth should examine whether progress is being made in the following ten policy areas.	但如果你想知道新政府是否在采取行动实现更快的长期增长，你应该考察以下十个政策领域是否取得了进展。


Education.	教育。


Although India has excellent institutions of higher education and technology, only a small share of the population can take advantage of the opportunities they offer, because primary and secondary education is so inadequate.	尽管印度拥有卓越的高等教育和技术机构，但只有一小部分人能够获得这些机构提供的机会，因为印度小学和中学教育十分落后。


Only 60% of the adult population can read and write at an elementary level.	只有60%的印度成年人拥有具备小学水平的读写能力。


Teachers themselves are poorly educated, and many are so unmotivated that they do not even show up at the schools where they are supposed to work.	教师本身教育程度欠佳，工作动力也不足，许多教师甚至从不在任教学校露面。


Infrastructure.	基础设施。


India needs better roads and ports to enable efficient transport of products domestically and to the rest of the world.	印度需要更好的公路和港口以便高效地将产品运往全国和世界各地。


The recent expansion of private airlines and airports shows what private firms in this sector can accomplish.	最近私人航线和机场的扩张表明私人企业也可以在这一领域有所作为。


Fiscal consolidation.	财政整合。


Large budget deficits are absorbing the national savings that should be used to expand business investment, and are increasing the national debt that will have to be financed by future taxes.	大规模预算赤字吸收着国民储蓄，而这笔钱本应用于扩大商业投资。 预算赤字导致了只能通过未来税收融资的国民债务的增加。


Privatization.	私有化。


The enterprises owned by the Indian government in manufacturing and other sectors operate inefficiently and often produce losses that absorb national saving.	印度政府所有的制造业和其他产业企业经营效率低下，常常产生消耗国民储蓄的结果。


Selling off these enterprises would contribute directly to accelerating the pace of economic growth.	出售这些企业直接有助于加速经济增长。


Removal of subsidies.	��消补贴。


Subsidized electricity and fuel leads to wasteful overconsumption and contributes to the fiscal deficit.	电力和能源补贴导致了浪费性过度消费和财政赤字增加。


Though these subsidies are politically difficult to eliminate, they should be replaced by cash transfers, which can now be done efficiently in India, owing to a remarkable new system of fingerprint-based cash transfers.	尽管这些补贴在政治上难以取消，但应该用现金转移支付代替。 目前，由于采取了令人瞩目的基于指纹的现金转移新制度，印度的现金转移支付效率较高。


Agricultural reform.	农业改革。


In the current system, the government buys, warehouses, and distributes agricultural products.	在当前制度下。 政府购买、储存并分销农产品。


As a result, an enormous amount of goods are spoiled in storage, while production incentives are misdirected.	结果是大量商品囤积在货仓中，而生产激励却遭到了误导。


Agricultural markets should be privatized.	农业市场应该被私有化。


Property rights and zoning.	产权和区域分划。


Anyone who visits Mumbai or other major Indian cities sees how zoning restrictions cause misuse of urban land and limit modernization.	只要你来过孟买或其他印度大城市，都会看到区域分划限制导致城镇土地使用不佳，制约了先淡化。


Ambiguous property rights, especially to agricultural land, prevent industrialization in rural areas.	不够明晰的产权，特别是农地产权，阻止了农村地区的工业化。


Relaxing limits on foreign investment.	放松外国投资限制。


Foreign firms are now barred from majority ownership of banks and insurance companies.	目前，外国企业无法成为银行和保险公司的控股股东。


Relaxing such restrictions would strengthen the financial sector and play an important role in economic growth.	放松这些限制能够强化金融部门，并在经济增长中起到重要作用。


Tax reform.	税收改革。


India’s complex system of national and state sales taxes distorts domestic trade.	印度复杂的国家和邦销售税制扭曲了国内贸易。


Replacing these taxes with a national value-added tax and using revenue-sharing to the states has been long debated and should now be enacted.	用全国增值税代替这些税收并采取分税制的争论已经进行了很长时间，现在应该进入实施阶段。


Corruption.	腐败。


Major cases of high-level corruption have undermined economic confidence and impeded official decision-making.	高层腐败大案破坏了经济信心，也阻挠了官员决策。


India is also handicapped by small-scale corruption, with bribery a common feature of all forms of business and personal transactions.	印度也深受小规模腐败困扰，行贿已成为所有商业和个人交易的共同特征。


The government should crack down on instances of high-level graft and use the new system of cash transfers to limit the scope of petty corruption.	政府应该严惩高层腐败，通过新的现金转移支付制度限制小规模腐败。


The Indian stock market is up about 20% this year in anticipation of stronger growth and rising profits.	受增长走强和利润增加预期推动，今年印度股市已上涨20%。


Now it is up to Modi and the BJP to show that they can deliver on their campaign promises.	现在，莫迪和印度人民党需要向世人证明他们能够兑现竞选承诺。


Looking Up in 2014?	期待2014？


CAMBRIDGE – For the past six years, I have been skeptical about the standard optimistic forecasts of the pace of US economic growth in the year ahead.	发自剑桥——在过去的六年中，我一直对那些对下一年美国经济增速持续乐观的预测持怀疑态度。


Where most forecasters and policy officials saw green shoots and reasons for confidence, I saw strong headwinds that would cause an economic downturn and then a subpar recovery.	当大多数预测者和政策官员看到复苏的苗头和信心依据之时，我却看到了会令经济衰退并随之导致复苏疲软的强大阻力。


But I think the evidence for 2014 is more balanced.	但我认为2014年的迹象是更为均衡的。


Although there are serious risks facing the US economy in the coming year, there is also a good chance that growth will be substantially stronger than it has been since before the recession began.	虽然在未来一年美国经济依然面临严重的风险，但增长也很可能会显著强于衰退开始之前的状况。


The economy was still expanding in the late summer of 2007, when I spoke at the US Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference about serious risks to the economic outlook.	2007年夏末，当我在美联储杰克逊霍尔年度会议上谈到经济前景的严重风险时，经济仍在扩张。


I warned that house prices had begun to fall in the summer of 2006 from dangerously high levels, implying a future collapse of construction activity and large losses of household wealth.	我警告说，房价已经在2006年夏天从危险的高水平开始下跌，这意味着未来建筑业的崩溃和家庭财富的巨大损失。


Reduced household wealth would lead, in turn, to lower consumer spending, further depressing GDP.	家庭财富减少将反过来导致消费支出下降，进一步遏制GDP增长。


I also stressed that financial markets had become dysfunctional.	我还强调，金融市场已经变得不正常了。


Banks and other financial institutions had doubts about the value of various asset-backed securities on their own balance sheets and on those of potential counterparties.	银行和其他金融机构已经对自身以及潜在交易对手的资产负债表上各类资产担保证券的价值产生了怀疑。


No one knew the real value of credit-default swaps and of the various tranches of collateralized debt obligations.	没有人知道信用违约掉期和各类债务抵押债券的真实价值。


Financial institutions were therefore reluctant to lend to other financial institutions.	金融机构因此不愿借钱给其他金融机构。


With credit flows disrupted, the economy could not continue to expand.	一旦信贷流中断，经济也无法继续扩张。


Moreover, I warned that the Fed was too complacent and should be reducing sharply the federal funds rate, which was above 5%.	另外我还警告说，美联储对自己的能力太过自负了，必须大幅降低当时高于5%的联邦基金利率。


The economy peaked a few months later, and the Fed began aggressive easing in 2008.	经济在几个月后见顶，美联储在2008年开始实行激进的宽松政策。


Although the Fed and the US Treasury cooperated in addressing financial-market dysfunction, this was not enough to restore solid economic growth.	但虽然美联储和财政部联手应对金融市场失灵，却都不足以令经济恢复稳定增长。


The restoration of normalcy to financial markets and lower interest rates did cause an economic upturn in the summer of 2009, leading many forecasters and market participants to expect a typical rapid post-recession recovery.	金融市场恢复正常以及低利率使得经济在2009年夏天出现好转，许多预测者和市场参与者都期待一个典型而迅速的衰退后复苏。


I warned that the upturn would be much more tepid than expected: unlike previous business cycles, the recession that began at the end of 2007 was not caused by high interest rates, so lowering rates would have little impact.	我又警告说，复苏将比预期温和的多：不同于以往的商业周期，2007年底开始的经济衰退不是由高利率造成的，所以降低利率将不会有太大作用。


US President Barack Obama’s new administration announced a three-year fiscal package intended to stimulate aggregate demand.	奥巴马总统的新政府宣布一项旨在刺激总需求的三年财政方案。


Administration officials and others predicted that fiscal stimulus would cause the economy to rebound, as it had in the past.	政府官员和其他人预测，财政刺激将像以往那样推动经济反弹。


But the fiscal package was not very effective. It was too small to close the output gap, leaving continued downward pressure on demand.	但这项计划并不是非常见效，还远远不足以弥补产出缺口，并使需求面临持续的下行压力。


Much of the “stimulus” merely financed increased spending by state governments that would have been paid for in other ways.	大部分的“刺激”仅仅资助了州政府原本用其他方式支付的支出。


Other parts of the stimulus went to individuals, but, given the nature of the fiscal package, increased transfers and spending added more to the national debt than to GDP.	其余的“刺激”传递到个人，但由于财政刺激方案的本质所限，转移支付和支出的增长导致增加的是国债——而非GDP。


When the Fed saw how weak the upturn remained, it launched a strategy of “unconventional monetary policy,” combining large-scale purchases of long-term securities (quantitative easing) with promises to keep the short-term federal funds rate extremely low for an extended period of time.	当美联储看到复苏持续疲软，就推出了一个“非常规货币政策”与大规模购买长期证券（量化宽松）相结合的战略，承诺将在一段时间内维持联邦基金短期利率处于极低水平。


The goal was to encourage portfolio investors to shift into equities and other assets, with the resulting increase in their prices pushing up household wealth and consumer spending.	目标是鼓励采用投资组合的投资者转而买入股票和其他资产，一旦这些产品的价格被抬高，家庭财富和消费支出也会因而增长。


Lower long-term rates were also expected to reduce the cost of mortgage credit, raising the value of homes.	更低的长期利率也将降低抵押贷款成本，提高房产价值。


The Fed and others were again overly optimistic about the extent to which these policies would boost GDP growth.	美联储和其他人再次对这些政策促进GDP增长的程度过于乐观了。


Despite the fall in long-term interest rates, house prices reached bottom only in 2012, and the stock market did not rise faster than corporate earnings until 2013.	尽管长期利率下降，房价直到2012年才触底反弹，而股市的回报在2013年才赶上了企业盈利的速度。


The economy therefore limped along year after year, with real GDP in the final quarter of each year less than 2% higher than it had been a year earlier.	经济因此年复一年蹒跚前行，每年最后一个季度的GDP仅仅比去年同期增长不到2%。


Employment grew more slowly than the population, and annual real-wage increases averaged only about 1%.	就业增长比人口增长更慢，每年实际工资增长率平均只约有1%。


Fortunately, the outlook may now be changing for the better.	幸运的是，前景现在可以变的更好。


Real GDP growth reached 4.1% in the third quarter of 2013, and fourth-quarter growth appears to have been relatively strong, driven by a dramatic rise in housing starts and industrial production.	2013第三季度实际GDP增长率达到4. 1%，并且第四季度GDP增长在新住宅开工和工业生产急剧上升的带动下似乎更强。


The sharp increases in the prices of homes and equities contributed to a roughly $6 trillion rise in real household wealth in the 12 months ending in September 2013 – a harbinger of increased consumer spending (at least by higher-wealth households) in 2014.	截止2013年9月底，房屋和资产价格大幅上扬令家庭财富在过去12个月内暴涨了大约6万亿美元——这预示着2014年消费者（至少是富裕家庭）的支出会增加。


There are, of course, risks to the pace of expansion in the coming year.	当然，未来一年迅速扩张也存在风险。


Nearly half of 2013 third-quarter GDP growth was inventory accumulation, implying that final sales rose by only about 2.5%.	2013年第三季度GDP增长的近一半是库存积累，这意味着最终销售额仅上升了约2.


Businesses worry about the potential for higher corporate taxes, especially if the Republican Party loses its majority in the US House of Representatives.	5%。 企业担心政府会提高公司税率——尤其是在共和党失去众议院多数席位的情况下。


Although fiscal deficits are temporarily down, the combination of population aging and higher future interest rates will cause the national debt to rise faster than GDP by the end of the decade.	虽然财政赤字是暂时减少了，但人口老龄化和未来高利率的双重作用会导致2020年前国债增速超过GDP增速。


And debt and equity markets may not continue to respond benignly to the Fed’s wind-down of quantitative easing.	同时债券和股票市场可能不会继续对美联储逐渐缩减的量化宽松政策作出积极回应。


So there is still much to worry about.	因此其实还是有很多事情值得担心的。


But the US economy has a better chance of achieving a significantly higher real growth rate in the coming year than at any time since the downturn began.	但相比经济衰退开始以来的任何时期，美国经济在新一年将有更多机会去实现真实而显著的高速增长。


Why the Fed Will Go Faster	为何美联储将加快步伐


CAMBRIDGE – The US Federal Reserve has emphasized that its monetary policy will be determined by what economic indicators show.	美国剑桥—美联储强调其货币政策将由经济指标表现决定。


But it would require some extremely unlikely data to change the Fed’s implicit plan to end its purchases of long-term assets (so-called quantitative easing) in October 2014 and to start raising the federal funds rate from its current near-zero level sometime in the first half of 2015.	但需要极度反常的数据才会改变美联储实际确定的在2014年10月结束其长期资产购买操作（所谓的量化宽松）并从2015年上半年开始从当前的近零水平上提高联邦基金利率的决定。


The financial markets are obsessed with anticipating whether rates will rise in March or June.	金融市场沉溺于预测会在3月还是6月提高利率。


Although my own best guess is that the Fed will start to raise rates in March, the starting date is less important than the pace of the rate increase and where the rate will be by the end of 2015.	尽管我个人的猜测是美联储将在3月提高利率，但什么时候开始并不重要，重要的是提高利率的节奏，以及2015年年底时的利率水平。


There is a substantial range of views among the members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.	决定利率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）各成员意见不一。


The midpoint of the opinions recorded at most recent FOMC meeting implies a federal funds rate of 1.25-1.5% at the end of 2015.	最新的 FOMC会议的中位意见表明，2015年底时的联邦基金利率将是1. 25—1.


Even by the end of 2016, the midpoint of the range is less than 3%.	5%。 即便在2016年底，中位意见也不到3%。


In my judgment, such rates would be too low.	据我判断，这样的利率太低了。


At a time when inflation is already close to 2% or higher, depending on how it is measured, the real federal funds rate would be at zero at the end of 2015.	通胀已经接近甚至超出2%（取决于不同的度量方法），因此2015年底实际联邦基金利率将为零。


Instead of ensuring price stability, monetary policy would be feeding a further increase in the inflation rate.	货币政策将无法确保价格稳定，反而会导致通胀率的进一步上升。


Although it is possible to argue about the precise appropriate level of the fed funds rate, the Fed’s own analysis points to a long-term rate of about 4% when the long-term inflation rate is 2%.	联邦基金利率的准确合适水平或许有待争议，但美联储自身的分析表明，当长期利率在2%时，长期利率应在4%左右。


The most recent value of the consumer price index was up 1.7% year on year, and the 12-month figure would have been even higher but for the anomalous decline in the most recent month.	最新的消费物价指数同比上涨1. 7%，12个月数字应该还会更大，但其原因是最近一个月的异常下降。


In the second quarter of this year, the annualized inflation rate was 4%.	今年二季度，年化通胀率为4%。


The Fed prefers to measure inflation by the price index for personal consumption expenditure.	美联储更喜欢用个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数衡量通胀。


Its relaxed attitude about inflation reflects its focus on the longer-term past, with PCE inflation at just 1.5% for the 12 months to August of this year, the same as the “core” PCE inflation rate, which excludes food and energy.	其对通胀的轻松态度反映了其对长期历史的关注，今年8月，12个月PCE通胀只有 1. 5%，与剔除食品和能源的PCE“核心”通胀率相同。


But PCE inflation has also been rising, with the most recent quarterly value at 2.3% year on year in the April-June period.	但PCE通胀一直在上升，4月—6月的最新季度值同比上涨2. 3%。


So if price stability were the Fed’s only goal, the federal funds rate should now be close to 4%.	如果物价稳定是美联储的唯一目标，则联邦基金利率目前应该接近4%。


The Fed’s rationale for continuing its ultra-easy monetary policy is that its “dual mandate” requires it to be concerned with employment as well.	美联储对继续极度宽松货币政策的理由是其“双重目标”要求它同时关注就业情况。


Its monthly statements emphasize that there is still “a significant underutilization of labor resources,” reflecting not only the 6.1% unemployment rate, but also the millions of part-time employees seeking a full-time job and those who are not officially counted as unemployed because they are not actively looking for work.	美联储月度报告强调，仍存在“劳动力资源显著利用不足”的情况，不仅失业率高达6. 1%的失业率，更有数百万兼职员工正在寻找全职工作，以及很多人因为没在积极寻找工作而未被计入失业口径。


The Fed is certainly correct that current labor-market conditions imply significant economic waste and personal hardship.	美联储认为当前的劳动力市场状况意味着巨大的经济浪费和个人困难，这显然是正确的。


But economists debate the extent to which these conditions reflect a cyclical demand shortfall or more structural problems that a monetary stimulus cannot remedy.	但经济学家对于这些状况在多大程度上反映了周期性需求不足或者货币刺激无法解决的结构性问题还存在争议。


A recent study by a team of Fed economists concluded that nearly all of the current decline in the labor-force participation rate reflects the aging of the population and other structural causes.	美联储经济学家团队的一份最新研究认为当前劳动力市场参与率下降几乎完全是因为人口老化和其他结构性原因所致。


Recent research also indicates that increases in demand that would cause a further reduction in the current unemployment rate would boost the inflation rate.	最新研究还表明，能进一步降低当前失业率的需求上升将推高通胀率。


An important study co-authored by Alan Krueger of Princeton University, who served as Chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers until last year, showed that the inflation rate reflects the level of short-term unemployment (lasting less than six months), rather than the overall unemployment rate.	去年卸任的奥巴马总统经济顾问委员会主席、普林斯顿大学的艾伦·克鲁格（Alan Krueger）参与撰写的一份重要研究表明，通胀率反映了短期失业水平（持续不到六个月），不反映总体失业率。


Longer-term unemployment implies a waste of potential output and a source of personal suffering, but it does not have an impact on the rate of inflation.	长期失业意味着对潜在产出的浪费，也是个人苦难的原因之一，但并不影响通胀率。


Krueger’s analysis indicates that the rate of inflation begins to increase when the short-term unemployment rate falls to 4-4.5%.	克鲁格的分析表明，通胀率在短期失业率降至4—5. 5%时开始上升。


With short-term unemployment currently at 4.2%, the inflation rate is indeed rising, and Krueger’s research suggests that it will increase further in the months ahead.	目前短期失业率为4. 2%，通胀率也确实在上升，克鲁格的研究认为它在未来几个月中还会进一步上升。


Similar studies by Robert Gordon of Northwestern University and by Glenn Rudebusch and John Williams of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank point to the same conclusion about the role of short-term unemployment and the irrelevance of long-term unemployment in the inflation process.	西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）以及旧金山联邦储备银行的格伦·鲁德布什（Glenn Rudebusch）和约翰·威廉姆斯（John Wiliams）的类似研究说明了短期失业的角色和长期失业在通胀过程中的不相关性。


While not all researchers agree with this analysis, I think the evidence is strong enough to represent a warning to the Fed and to market participants.	尽管并非所有研究者都同意这一分析，但我认为证据已足够对美联储和市场参与者构成警告。


Indeed, I would not be surprised by a continued rise in the inflation rate in 2015.	事实上，如果2015年通胀率继续上升，我一点也不会奇怪。


In that case, the Fed is likely to raise the federal funds rate more rapidly and to a higher year-end level than its recent statements imply.	果真如此的话，美联储可能会更快地提高联邦基金利率，年底利率水平也会比其最新报告中所暗示的更高。


America’s Move to Faster Growth	美国向更快增长运动


CAMBRIDGE – Last December, I speculated that GDP growth in the United States would rise in 2014 from the subpar 2% annual rate of the previous four years to about 3%, effectively doubling the per capita growth rate.	美国剑桥—去年12月，我预测2014年美国GDP增长将从此前四年每年2%的平庸水平升高到3%左右，人均增长率几乎翻番。


Now that the US economy is past the impact of the terrible weather during the first months of the year, output appears to be on track to grow at a healthy pace.	如今，美国经济战胜了今年前几个月的恶劣天气，产出似乎回归了健康增长的节奏。


The primary driver of this year’s faster GDP growth is the $10 trillion rise in household wealth that occurred in 2013.	今年GDP增长加速的主要推动力是2013年家庭财富增加了10万亿美元。


According to the Federal Reserve, that increase reflected a $2 trillion increase in the value of homes and an $8 trillion rise in the value of shares, unincorporated businesses, and other net financial assets.	根据美联储的数据，其中2万亿美元来自住房价值升高，8万亿美元来自股票、非公司企业和其他净金融资产的升值。


As former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke explained when he launched large-scale asset purchases, or quantitative easing, that increase in wealth – and the resulting rise in consumer spending – was the intended result.	正如前美联储主席本·伯南克在他实施大规模资产购买计划（即量化宽松）时所解释的，财富的增长——以及由此带来的消费支出的增长——正是这一计划的目的。


Past experience suggests that each $100 increase in household wealth leads to a gradual rise in consumer spending until the spending level has increased by about $4.	过去的经验表明家庭财富每增长100美元可以带来消费支出的逐渐上升，直至支出水平提高大约4美元。


That implies that the $10 trillion wealth gain will raise the annual level of consumer spending by some $400 billion, or roughly 2.5% of GDP.	这意味着10万亿财富增量能够将年消费支出水平提升约4,000亿美元或GDP的2. 5%左右。


Even if less than half of that increase occurs in 2014, it will be enough to raise the total GDP growth rate by one percentage point.	即使这一增长中只有一半发生在2014年，也足以将总GDP增长率提高一个百分点。


The data show that a significant increase in consumption already is happening.	数据表明，消费激增的情况正在发生。


Real personal consumption expenditures rose at a 3% rate from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of this year.	从2013年四季度到今年一季度，实际个人消费支出以3%的速度增长。


Within the first quarter, the monthly increase in real consumer spending accelerated from just 0.1% in January to 0.4% in February and 0.7% in March.	在一季度，月度实际消费支出增长从1月的仅0. 1%加速至2月的0.


That was faster than the 0.3% monthly growth in real personal disposable income during this period, highlighting the importance of wealth as a driver of spending.	这一速度快于同期实际个人可支配收入月度增长率0. 3%，凸显出财富作为支出推进器的重要性。


Another indication of the role of wealth in fueling higher consumer spending is the decline in the household saving rate.	另一个凸显财富在助力提高消费支出方面的作用的指标是家庭储蓄率的下降。


Total household saving as a percentage of disposable income fell from about 6% in 2011 and 2012 to just 3.8% in the most recent quarter.	家庭总储蓄占可支配收入之比从2011年和2012年的6%左右降至最近一个季度的3. 8%。


Housing starts are also responding to the increase in wealth.	住房开工也对财富的增加有所反应。


The number of housing starts and the value of residential construction fell after the Fed’s announced withdrawal from quantitative easing caused interest rates on mortgages to rise.	住房开工数量和住宅建筑价值在美联储宣布退出量化宽松导致按揭利率上升后有所下降。


But that has turned around, with housing starts in April up 26% year on year.	但这一趋势已经得到了扭转，4月份住房开工数量同比增长了26%。


And sales of both new and existing homes have recently been rising more rapidly as well.	新屋和旧屋销售最近也呈现出快速增长之势。


Higher consumer spending and increased residential investment boosted demand for labor, resulting in a rise in payroll employment of 288,000 in April, up from a monthly average of less than 200,000 earlier in the year.	消费支出的增加和住宅投资升高提振了劳动力需求，因此，4月就业注册人数增加了288,000人，而今年此前的平均月度数字为200,000。


If that continues, it will lead to a faster rate of increase in household incomes and spending.	如果这一势头保持下去，家庭收入和支出增速还会进一步提高。


The favorable effect of the increase in household wealth is being reinforced this year by the improved fiscal position.	今年以来，家庭财富增长带来的正效应受财政状况的改善的加强。


The economy in 2013 was held back by tax increases, government spending cuts mandated by the sequester process, the temporary government shutdown, and the possibility that a binding debt ceiling would require further cuts in government outlays.	2013年，增税、隔离程序要求的政府支出削减、政府临时关门以及有约束力的赤字上限可能要求政府进一步削减支出对经济产生了拖累。


Though the prospect of a rising deficit and national debt in the longer term remains, the two-year budget agreement enacted by the US Congress means that the economy will not be subject to such negative fiscal shocks in 2014 or 2015.	尽管从长期看，赤字和国民债务仍面临继续上升的前景，但美国国会所形成的为期两年的预算协议意味着经济在2014年和2015年不会面临消极的财政冲击。


The key challenge confronting the economy in the next two years will be faced by the Fed, which must control the inflationary pressures that could emerge as commercial banks respond to a healthier economy by increasing lending to businesses and households.	未来两年中经济的关键挑战将由美联储面对。 美联储必须控制当商业银行以增加对企业和家庭的贷款应对更健康的经济时所产生的通胀压力。


The commercial banks have a great deal of liquidity, in the form of excess reserve deposits at the Fed, which could make inflationary lending a significant risk.	商业银行手握巨量流动性，目前已超额准备金形式存在美联储，这意味着通胀性借贷将是一个巨大的风险。


The banks are now content to leave those funds at the Fed, where they earn a mere 0.25% because they are risk-free, completely liquid, and unburdened by capital requirements.	如今，银行很愿意将资金存在美联储赚取0. 25%的利息，��为这一利息是无风险的，具有完全流动性，并且没有资本要求负担。


The alternative is to lend commercially at relatively low interest rates, with less liquidity, more risk, and the need to provide capital.	另一个选择是以相对较低的利率从事商业借贷，这一选择流动性更低、风险更大并且必须提供资本。


But the time will come when the banks will want to use their excess reserves to support more profitable lending.	但总有一天银行会希望将超额准备金用于支持利润更丰厚的借贷活动。


The Fed will then need to raise the interest rate that it pays on excess reserves to limit the extent to which the commercial banks can draw down those reserves to create additional lending and deposits.	到那时，美联储将需要提高其向超额准备金提供的利率以遏制商业银行削减准备金、创造更多贷款和存款的冲动。


That will be a difficult balancing act.	这将是艰难的平衡游戏。


If the interest rate is raised too little, banks will use more reserves to support lending, leading to higher inflation.	如果利率提升力度太小，银行将把更多准备金用来支持借贷，导致通胀升高。


If the interest rate is raised too much, economic activity will be constrained and growth could fizzle.	如果利率提升力度太大，商业活动将受到约束，增长可能受到打击。


The situation now has diverged from the traditional scenario in which the Fed controlled the banks’ use of reserves by adjusting the federal funds rate (the rate at which banks lend their reserves to one another).	当前的局面与传统情景相反。 在传统情景中，美联储通过调整联邦基金利率（银行将准备金借给同业的利率）控制银行对准备金的使用。


The principle difference is that the Fed will now have to pay the interest on the nearly $2.5 trillion of excess reserves that it holds.	当前局面的主要不同之处在于现在美联储需要为存在它那里的2. 5万亿美元超额准备金支付利息。


The US economy is now on a favorable path of expansion.	如今，美国经济正走在有利的扩张之路上。


But keeping it there will be a major challenge for the Fed in the year ahead.	但保持这一势头将是美联储在未来一年中的主要挑战。


A New Model for New Europe	新欧洲的新模式


WARSAW – Five years ago, Central and Eastern Europe was home to one of the world’s most impressive growth stories.	华沙—五年前，中东欧是世界最令人瞩目的增长繁荣之地。


Annual GDP growth was close to 5%, just behind China and India.	年GDP增长率接近5%，只有中国和印度能超过这里。


Foreign direct investment poured into Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia at a rate of more than $40 billion per year.	外国直接投资（FDI）以每年400多亿美元的速度涌入保加利亚、克罗地亚、捷克、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛发卡和斯洛文尼亚。


One in six cars sold in greater Europe was being exported from factories in the region.	大欧洲所卖出的每六辆汽车中就有一辆从工厂来到这里。


Productivity and per capita GDP were rising briskly, narrowing the gap with Western Europe.	生产率和人均GDP增长迅猛，缩小了与西欧的差距。


But the region has struggled to regain momentum since the global financial crisis and subsequent recession.	但自全球金融危机及其后的衰退以来，该地区一直难以重获动力。


Economic-growth rates have fallen to less than a third of their pre-crisis levels.	经济增长率较危机前下降了三分之二多。


Foreign direct investment, which plunged 75% from 2008 to 2009, has only partly recovered.	外国直接投资在2008和2009年期间下降了75%，目前也只是略有恢复。


Indeed, the region appears to have dropped off the radar of global businesses and investors.	事实上，中东欧地区似乎已经掉出了全球企业和投资者的雷达之外。


Yet our new research finds that the attributes that had made the region so attractive remain intact.	但我们的新研究发现，曾经让该地区拥有极大吸引力的特征仍然完好无损。


Growth and FDI inflows are still depressed, but, overall, the region has weathered the crisis in relatively good shape.	增长和FDI流入仍然萎靡，但总体而言中东欧以较好的状态抵御了危机。


In most countries, public debt as a share of GDP has not exceeded 60% since 2004 – in stark contrast to many of the 15 countries that were members of the European Union prior to that year.	在大部分国家，公债占GDP比例自2004年以来从未超过60%——与2004年前成为欧盟成员的15个国家中的许多国家形成了鲜明对比。


And it remains the case that these countries collectively boast a highly educated labor force and wage levels that are 75% lower, on average, than in the EU-15 economies.	此外，这些国家总体而言劳动力教育状况出色，而平均工资要比欧盟15国低75%。


At the same time, the region shared in some of the same excesses – notably in the property market – that helped to bring about the crisis.	与此同时，中东欧也存在相同的过剩——主要是房地长市场，而这些过剩正是危机的原因之一。


In Romania, real-estate prices rose 23% annually from 2004 to 2007.	在罗马尼亚，2004—2007年房地产价格每年要上涨23%。


And, despite substantial improvement in the business environment throughout the region, these economies rank behind their EU-15 neighbors on corruption (though they are doing better than other emerging economies, including China, India, Brazil, and Russia).	此外，尽管整个地区的商业环境获得了重大改善，但各经济体在腐败方面仍落后于欧盟15国（尽管比包括中国、印度、巴西和俄罗斯在内的其他新兴经济体表现出色）。


More important, the crisis exposed significant weaknesses in the region’s economic model: over-reliance on exports to Western Europe and a high level of consumption relative to other developing regions, fueled by borrowing and heavy reliance on FDI to fund capital investment.	更重要的是，危机暴露了中东欧地区经济模式的重要弱点：过度依赖对西欧的出口，以及与其他发展中地区相比更高的消费水平，后者是由借贷和严重依赖FDI提供资本投资资金造成的。


But Central and Eastern Europe can fashion a new model that we believe would enable a return to GDP growth rates of 4-5%.	但中东欧可以采取一种新模式，我们相信这一模式能让GDP增长率回到4—5%的水平。 这一模式有三个重要组成部分：扩大和升级出口；


This model has three major components: expanding and upgrading exports; raising productivity in sectors where it is weak; and reviving FDI while developing ways for the region’s economies to fund more of their own growth through higher domestic saving.	提高弱势部门生产率； 以及在重振FDI的同时为地区内经济体开发通过提高国内储蓄为自身增长提供资金的方式。


The region has a major opportunity to raise the value of its exports of goods and services.	中东欧地区面临着提升出口产品和服务价值的重要机会。


For example, it is well-positioned to become a regional food-processing hub for greater Europe and beyond.	比如，中东欧很适合作为地区食品加工枢纽，为大欧洲和全世界提供这方面的服务。


The region’s wage rates are still sufficiently low that sausages made in Poland and sold in Berlin cost about 40% less than those made in Hamburg.	中东欧地区的工资率仍然很低，因此柏林出售的波兰产香肠比汉堡产香肠价格要低40%。


The region is already a net exporter of “knowledge-intensive” goods such as automobiles and aerospace products.	中东欧地区已经成为“知识密集型”商品（如汽车和宇航产品）的净出口地区。


It could move into even more sophisticated areas with additional investment in education and further development of industry clusters such as Dolina Lotnicza (Aviation Valley) in southeastern Poland.	它还可以向更成熟的领域挺近，只要投资和教育可以跟进，并且能够进一步发展诸如波兰东南部航空谷（Dolina Lotnicza）这样的产业集群。


One promising opportunity lies in knowledge-intensive services.	一个重要的机会在于知识密集型服务业。


Led by Poland, the region is an increasingly important location for outsourcing and offshoring work.	以波兰为首，中东欧地区正在成为日益重要的外包和离岸工作中心。


Its outsourcing industry is growing twice as fast as India’s.	其外包产业增长速度比印度快一倍。


But there could be even greater scope for growth, given two trends in Asia: rising wage costs and increasing concern among Western outsourcing customers about persistent cultural and language issues.	但从亚洲的两大趋势看，我们还可以找到更大的增长空间：工资成本上升和西方外包客户日益担忧的根深蒂固的文化和语言问题。


Central and Eastern Europe is well placed to benefit from these trends, given its strong language skills and cultural familiarity with European and North American clients.	中东欧可以从这两个趋势中获益，因为这里的语言和文化与欧洲和北美客户十分相近。


The region is also many time zones closer to European and US clients than firms in Asia.	中东欧地区所在时区也比亚洲企业更接近于欧洲和美国客户。


Several sectors are also ripe for productivity improvement.	此外，有一些部门很适合提高生产率。


In construction, which is a highly informal sector, productivity is 31% below EU-15 levels.	建筑业是一个非正式化程度较高的部门，该部门中东欧生产率比欧盟15国水平低31%。


Productivity is also low in agriculture, owing to the predominance of small farms that are not highly mechanized.	农业部门生产率也很低，因为机械化程度较低的小农场占据着主导地位。


Opening up the agricultural sector to foreign investment would help to scale up average farm sizes and introduce more modern methods.	向外国投资开放农业部门有助于提高平均农场规模，引入更现代化的方法。


“Network” industries, such as electric utilities and rail systems, have been partly privatized in most of the region.	“网络”产业，比如电力和铁路系统，在中东欧的大部分地区部分实现了私有化。


Opening them more fully to competition and market incentives would help to raise productivity in these industries.	更完全地开放、引入竞争和市场激励有助于提高这些产业的生产率。


To reduce reliance on borrowing for consumption and the vagaries of FDI inflows, the region’s domestic saving rates must be raised once demand picks up.	为了减少对消费借贷和高波动的FDI流入的依赖性，中东欧地区必须在需求增加时提高国内储蓄率。


Pension reform and further development of financial markets would help.	退休金改革和金融市场的进一步发展将有所助益。


Implementing the components of this growth model for Central and Eastern Europe will require further reforms aimed at making it easier to do business and strengthening protections for investors.	在中东欧实施这一增长模式的三大要点需进一步改革，让从事商业活动变得更容易并加强投资者保护。


The region’s economies should also invest significantly more in infrastructure and address the effects of aging, which could clip 0.7% from annual growth rates in the coming decade.	中东欧地区经济体还应该大量投资于基础设施、减轻人口老化的影响（在未来十年中，这两大因素可能会导致年增长率下降0. 7%）。


Getting more women into the work force would be one way to raise labor-force participation to EU-15 levels and avoid soaring dependency ratios.	让更多的女性加入劳动力大军是将劳动力参与率提高到欧盟15国水平和避免赡养比率上升的一个办法。


Central and Eastern Europe will inevitably be in the global spotlight this year.	中东欧必将成为今年全球关注焦点。


The 25th anniversary of the fall of the Iron Curtain and the 10th anniversary of the accession to the EU of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia provide an opportunity for the region to showcase how far it has come in the last quarter-century.	今年是铁幕落下25周年和捷克、匈牙利、波兰、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚加入欧盟十周年，对于该地区来说，这是一次展示它在过去四分之一个世纪所取得的成就的机会。


But realizing the region’s considerable potential for further success will require a fresh approach to growth.	但实现该地区巨大的潜力、获得未来成功需要新的增长方略。


Lebanon’s Model of Moderation	黎巴嫩的温和模式


BEIRUT – Global debate in recent weeks has centered on US President Barack Obama’s initiative to prevent the advance of the Islamic State.	贝鲁特——近几周的全球争论主要集中在美国总统奥巴马阻止“伊斯兰国”扩张势力的倡议。


But another force has emerged as an unlikely rampart against the barbaric and delusional leaders of the self-proclaimed caliphate: Lebanese pluralism.	但另外一股势力已不可思议地成为对抗自封的野蛮疯狂伊斯兰领导人的堡垒：那就是黎巴嫩的多元主义。


Indeed, despite the shortcomings of its political system, Lebanon can provide a template for managing cultural diversity and rejecting radicalism in an unstable and fragmented setting.	事实上，尽管政治体系有着种种缺陷，但黎巴嫩却能提供在动荡分裂的环境中管理文化多样性和抵制激进主义的模式。


Last month, the Lebanese army showed considerable fortitude as it fought Islamic State militants in the village of Arsal, near the border with Syria.	上个月，黎巴嫩军在叙利亚边境附近的阿索尔村迎战“伊斯兰国”武装份子时表现出令人钦佩的勇气。


Though the army has sustained heavy losses – including two soldiers that were beheaded – it has managed to compel the militants, who were operating inside a Syrian refugee camp, largely to withdraw.	虽然损失惨重——其中包括两名士兵被砍头——黎军却成功迫使盘踞在叙利亚难民营中的大部分武装分子撤退。


And it continues to fight when the need arises.	黎军在必要时仍将继续战斗。


International aid is now flowing toward the army, with Saudi Arabia alone pledging more than $3 billion.	国际援助现在正流向黎军，仅沙特阿拉伯一国就已经承诺了超过30亿美元的援助。


But the international community should move beyond military aid to support Lebanon’s real strengths: its moderate, pluralist, and vibrant society.	但国际社会理应超越军事援助力挺黎巴嫩的真正优势：温和、多元、充满活力的社会。


After all, that is what has enabled the country, against all odds, to avoid all-out conflict, making it a beacon – however faint – of hope in a crisis-ravaged region.	归根结底，恰恰因此特点该国才排除万难成功避免爆发全面冲突，黎巴嫩也因此成为危机肆虐地区的一座希望的灯塔，无论这样的光明是多么微弱。


Lebanon’s resilience has confounded expectations, given its lack of a shared national identity – a result of deep social divisions that resemble, to some extent, those besetting Iraq – and notoriously weak state institutions.	因为缺乏民族认同感——黎巴嫩已经分不清韧性和希望——因为黎巴嫩在某种程度上像伊拉克一样受困于严重的社会分歧，以及软弱且臭名昭著的国家机构。


In fact, Lebanon’s political system has been paralyzed by disagreements over Syria’s civil war, the consequences of which have been pouring over the Lebanese border.	事实上，黎巴嫩的政治体制因为叙利亚内战问题的分歧而陷入瘫痪，由此造成的后果已经影响到黎巴嫩的邻国。 黎巴嫩5月以来就已没有过总统；


The country has not had a president since May; the parliament is not functioning; and the cabinet is practically powerless.	议会也无法正常工作； 内阁却几乎对此束手无策。


When the Islamic State arrived at the border, however, most of Lebanon’s political parties, media, and civil society rallied together.	但当“伊斯兰国”迫近边境时，黎巴嫩多数政党、媒体和民间组织终于携手抗敌。


Billboards were erected appealing to Sunnis to preserve moderation.	人们竖起广告牌呼吁逊尼派保持温和。


Media outlets informally agreed not to provide a platform to radical militants.	媒体私下同意不为极端武装分子提供宣传帮助。


And performing-arts festivals featuring international figures went ahead – signaling the Lebanese people’s refusal to give in to radicalism and violence.	表演艺术节赞颂抵抗极端主义的国际先驱——表现出黎巴嫩民众拒绝向极端主义和暴力活动低头。


Moreover, the army received an outpouring of public support, which is understandable, given the lack of any other unifying institution.	此外，军队也受到了民众的强烈支持，这一点很容易理解，因为不存在其他任何的统一机构。


Even the Shia militant group Hezbollah, which caused deep fissures in Lebanon by helping to shore up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, supported the army’s campaign (though the desire to allow others to die fighting Assad’s opponents was undoubtedly a key motivation).	就连支持叙利亚总统阿萨德武装、并因此导致黎巴嫩分裂加剧的什叶派激进组织黎巴嫩真主党也支持军队发动攻势（虽然让别的势力死���与阿萨德反对派作战无疑是一个重要的考虑）。


Ironically, the weakness of the Lebanese state may be contributing to the strength of its civil society.	颇具讽刺意味的是，黎巴嫩政府的软弱或许恰恰增强了其民间组织的力量。


In Lebanon, unlike in other Arab countries, no single religious group enjoys a majority.	黎巴嫩的情况与其他阿拉伯国家不同，没有任何一个宗教团体能够占据多数。


Shias and Sunnis compete to ally themselves with the Christian community, recognizing its vital social and political role in the country.	什叶派和逊尼派争相与基督教团体结成联盟，因为基督教团体在该国的社会和政治领域扮演重要的角色。


Lebanon’s acceptance of cultural diversity and pluralism has enabled the country to emerge whole from 15 years of civil war, to withstand decades of Syrian and Israeli occupation, and finally to stand up to the Islamic State.	黎巴嫩接受多元及多样文化使该国得以走出15年内战，经受住长达数十年的叙利亚和以色列占领，并最终坚决抵抗奉行激进主义的“伊斯兰国”。


It may have taken years of violence, but Christians, Sunnis, and Shias seem to have internalized the lesson that they cannot impose their will on one another.	这个国家可能已经经受了多年的暴力洗礼，但基督徒、逊尼派和什叶派似乎已经吸取了教训，不能把自己的观点强加在别人身上。


Today, Lebanon is bustling with the cosmopolitan spirit and energy that once characterized the entire region.	今天，黎巴嫩向之前整个地区一样到处充斥着繁华都市的精神和能量。


And the impact of its people’s creative activities is increasingly visible worldwide, with, for example, the fashion designer Elie Saab dressing Hollywood stars and Lamia Joreige’s art being exhibited in the permanent collection of London’s Tate Modern.	同时民众创造性活动对世界的影响越来越明显，比方说时装设计师艾莉·萨博为好莱坞明星设计礼服，而Lamia Joreige的艺术品被伦敦泰特现代美术馆永久收藏。


Furthermore, pluralism and moderation remain the dominant forces in the country; tellingly, the Islamic State could not find a single Lebanese to volunteer to be its emir of Lebanon.	不仅如此，多元主义和温和派依然是黎巴嫩的主要力量； 引人注目的是，“伊斯兰国”找不到哪怕一个黎巴嫩人愿意充当黎巴嫩埃米尔的角色。


But this inspiring model is under threat, as Lebanon struggles to cope with massive debt and the spread of abject poverty in rural areas, especially among Sunnis.	但如此令人振奋的模式正在经受挑战，因为黎巴嫩无力偿还巨额债务，且农村地区，特别是逊尼人口极度贫困的比例不断加大。


Making matters worse, more than a million Syrian refugees have poured into Lebanon – the equivalent, in proportional terms, of 80 million Mexicans suddenly arriving in the United States.	雪上加霜的是，此时有一百多万叙利亚难民涌入黎巴嫩——从比例上讲相当于8000万墨西哥人突然进入到美国。


Such a large refugee population can easily transform – and destabilize – a society, especially one as fragmented as Lebanon’s.	如此庞大的难民潮可以轻易改变——甚至动摇整个社会，黎巴嫩这样本已四分五裂的社会更加不在话下。


Indeed, it can even provide a conduit – if inadvertently – for the Islamic State to penetrate the country.	事实上，如果处置不慎，难民潮甚至可能成为“伊斯兰国”向黎巴嫩渗透的管道。


Yet the international community has provided only 40% of the funds that Lebanon needs to cope with the crisis.	而国际社会提供给黎巴嫩的危机处理资金只有所需数额的40%左右。


If Lebanon manages to weather the current crisis with its pluralistic system, cultural vibrancy, and creativity intact, its prospects of achieving political maturity are promising.	如果黎巴嫩凭借其多元化制度、文化活力和蓬勃的创造力安然度过这次危机，那么它走向政治成熟的前景将十分美好。


Given the importance of such progress not just for Lebanon, but also for its regional neighbors, the international community would do well to find ways to ensure that the country can hold its ground not only politically and militarily, but also culturally.	鉴于上述进展不仅对黎巴嫩、而且对地区邻国至关重要，国际社会应认真想办法确保该国能在政治、军事和文化上稳住阵脚。


Lebanon must be able to continue inspiring its regional neighbors, and to provide a template for effective pluralism in the Middle East.	黎巴嫩必须继续鼓舞地区邻国，为中东地区有效多元化树立榜样。 这在今天非常重要；


That is important today; it will be even more important when the Arab world emerges from its current turmoil and starts to re-establish a stable sociopolitical order.	而且其重要性将随阿拉伯世界走出目前动荡并开始重建稳定的社会政治秩序而不断增加。


Europe’s Educational Evolution	欧洲的教育演化


DUBLIN – Europe is grappling with great challenges – too great for any one country to address.	都柏林—欧洲正在与重大挑战作斗争——挑战之巨是任何单个国家所不能解决的。


Facing economic crisis, widespread unemployment, and rising competition from developing economies, Europe must adjust to technological advances and new modes of working – all while an aging population puts increasing strain on exhausted public budgets.	欧洲面临着经济危机、失业蔓延和来自发展中经济体的日益激烈的竞争，因此必须找到技术优势和新的工作模式——而老化的人口正在给耗尽的公共预算造成越来越严重的桎梏。


In this fragile context, the European Union must focus on education in order to nurture people’s talents and potential, and thus to spur economic and social recovery.	在如此严峻的环境下，欧盟必须专注于教育，从而发展人民的才能和潜力，并借此刺激经济和社会复苏。


Education holds the key not only to better jobs and stronger GDP growth, but also to the cultural, political, and social development that is needed to ensure that citizens are well-rounded and grounded enough to lead at the local, national, and international levels.	教育不仅是更好的工作和更强的GDP增长的关键，也是文化、政治和社会发展的关键，而这些方面的发展优势确保人民团结、便于地方、国家和国际层面领导的必要条件。


By focusing on the right policies, EU leaders can ensure that Europeans’ education enables them to be articulate global citizens and potent economic actors.	通过致力于正确的政策，欧盟领导人可以确保欧洲教育让欧洲人民成为出色的全球公民和强大的经济行动者。


The good news is that European leaders seem to recognize the value of the pursuit of knowledge.	好消息是欧洲领导人似乎认识到了追求知识的价值。


When allocating funds in the 2014-2020 European budget, EU governments wisely decided to increase funding for education and research – the only areas in which they did so.	在分配2014—2020年欧洲预算资金时，欧盟各国政府明智地决定增加教育和研究经费——这也是唯一的经费增加领域。


This commitment to safeguarding education and research funding should be reflected at all levels of policymaking.	这一捍卫教育和研究经费的承诺应该体现在各个层次的决策中。


Moreover, in order to drive Europe’s transformation into a hub of responsible innovation and ethically sound production, policymakers must ensure that higher-education institutions equip students with cutting-edge knowledge and high-level flexible skills grounded in shared values.	此外，为了推动欧洲向负责任的创新和合乎道德的生产枢纽的转变，决策者必须确保高等教育机构以建立在共同价值基础上的最先进的知识和高度灵活的技能武装学生。


This means developing differentiated education systems, ranging from vocational schools to doctoral programs, and giving students access to international experience, which can expose them to opportunities beyond national frontiers.	这意味着发展从职业学校到博士项目的差异化教育系统，让学生获得国际经验从而体会超越国界的机会。


For example, the Erasmus program, which enables university students to study or work abroad as part of their degree, broadens participants’ outlook while enhancing their willingness and ability to go where the jobs are.	比如，伊拉斯谟（Erasmus）项目让大学生得到海外学习和工作机会，并作为学位授予的一部分，这拓展了参与者的视野，也增强了他们追寻工作岗位的意愿和能力。


Such programs also enrich local students and offer valuable insights to professors about other traditions of higher education.	这一项目还丰富了本地学生，为教授们提供了关于其他高等教育传统的极有价值的洞见。


Furthermore, EU leaders must recognize that high-quality instruction is as central to universities as, say, pioneering research.	此外，欧盟领导人必须认识到，高质量教学对大学和尖端研究一样重要。


As it stands, while everyone agrees that researchers need extensive training, the prevailing assumption is that great teachers are born and great teaching just happens – a view that is hampering education at all levels.	尽管所有人都同意研究者需要经过全面的训练，但人们普遍认为，好老师常有而好教学不常有——这一观点正在妨碍各个层面的高等教育。


Improving the quality of instruction in higher education is at the focus of the first report to the European Commission by the High-Level Group on the Modernization of Higher Education (of which I am President).	改善高等教育中的教学质量是高等教育现代化高级别小组（High-Level Group on the Modernization of Higher Education，由我担任主席）向欧盟委员会提交的第一份报告的核心内容。


Among the report’s 16 recommendations is to develop quality teaching through compulsory continuous professional training, and to recognize and reward achievement.	该报告给出了16项建议，要求通过连续的义务职业训练发展高质量教学，并承认和奖励这方面的成就。


This approach would give educators the skills and motivation that they require to provide the kind of education that Europe needs.	这一方针将让教育者获得必要的技能和动机提供欧洲所需要的教育。


Another crucial issue – and the topic of the group’s next report – concerns new modes of delivering education, such as Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs).	另一个关键问题——也是该小组下一份报告的主题——是教育实施新模式问题，如大众在线公开课（Massive Open Online Courses，MOOC）。


In fact, some claim that a revolution in the way knowledge and information is created and transmitted is imminent.	事实上，一些人认为，知识和信息的创造和传递革命已经近在眼前。


While these new modes of delivery are undoubtedly transforming education, especially higher education, what is happening may be more evolution than revolution.	这些教育实施新模式毫无疑问改变了教育特别是高等教育，但这一趋势更适合称为演化（evolution）而非革命（revolution）。


In other words, rather than bringing about the end of brick-and-mortar education, MOOCs and other innovations will spur the progression to so-called “click-and-mortar” education.	换句话说，MOOC和其他创新不会让钢筋-水泥教育终结，而是会刺激所谓的“鼠标-水泥”教育的进步。


This suggests that the group’s recommendations in this area will include complementary improvements to existing formal and non-formal systems, as well as mechanisms for reviving lifelong learning in higher education.	这意味着本小组的在这一领域的建议将包括对现有正式和非正式系统以及振兴高等教育中的终身学习的补充性改善。


For students, the foundations for success must be laid early, beginning with pre-primary and primary education.	对学生来说，成功的基础必须从学前教育和小学教育就开始早日打好。


And policymakers must recognize the risk of perpetuating a digital divide that favors those who are already advantaged.	决策者必须认识到让有利于已获得优势者的数字鸿沟永久化的风险。


Studies show, for example, that the vast majority of participants in MOOCs – which have been praised for their supposed accessibility – already have higher-education qualifications.	比如，研究表明MOOC（因其便利性而广受赞誉）的绝大部分参与者是已获得高等教育文凭的群体。


Europe’s leaders must work to ensure that new modes of delivering education translate into better opportunities for a broader range of people.	欧洲领导人必须致力于确保教育实施新模式能给更广泛的人群带来更好的机会。


The pace and scope of technological progress makes predicting impending developments, and how they will affect education, virtually impossible.	技术进步的速度和范围使得预测即将到来的发展趋势及其对教育的影响变得几乎不可能。


Regardless of which new technologies arise, however, education will boil down to teachers and students.	但是，不管会出现什么新技术，教育都要落实到教师和学生身上。


Providing tools and opportunities that support the evolution of their respective roles is essential to creating a labor force capable of adapting to changing circumstances.	提供支持教师和学生角色演化的工具和机会对于打造能够适应环境变化的劳动力大军来说至关重要。


That is the real challenge facing Europe.	这是欧洲所面临的真正的挑战。


From San Francisco to the South China Sea	从旧金山到南中国海


OSAKA – Territorial and maritime disputes among China, Taiwan, and several Southeast Asian countries are roiling the South China Sea region, with little prospect of resolution anytime soon.	大阪——中国、台湾及若干东南亚国家之间的领土和海洋争端打破了南中国海地区的平静，上述争端不太可能迅速得到解决。


But the current uneasy status quo may be tenable, so long as the parties embrace serious confidence-building measures through multilateral forums while maintaining effective deterrence vis-à-vis China and a commitment not to use offensive force.	不过只要借助多边论坛树立信心、保持对中国的有效遏制并承诺不使用武力，目前的现状或许可以维持。


Naturally, China is eager to exclude interference by extra-regional great powers, particularly the United States, preferring bilateral negotiations with weaker regional claimants that it can more easily dominate.	中国自然急于排除区域外大国、尤其是美国的干扰，宁愿与更容易操纵的区域小国通过双边谈判解决问题。


Extra-regional powers, however, cite the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea – specifically, the freedom of navigation and the right of innocent passage – to justify their involvement.	但区域外大国特别引用保障航行自由和无害通过权的联合国海洋法公约来证明自己有理由参与。


Given that the South China Sea disputes stem from overlapping claims to “exclusive economic zones,” not open ocean, the UN convention is not entirely relevant.	鉴于南中国海争端来自主权要求重叠的“专属经济区”而非公海，在此并不完全适用联合国公约。


But another international agreement does provide some guidance for settling these disputes: the San Francisco Peace Treaty, which entered into force in 1952 and officially ended World War II in the Asia-Pacific region.	但另一项国际条约的确能为解决此类纠纷提供某些指导原则：那就是签字生效于1952年、正式结束亚太地区二战的旧金山和平条约。


Under the treaty, Japan renounced its sovereignty claims over the Spratly and the Paracel Islands, but did not reassign them to any single country.	条约规定日本放弃对南沙及西沙群岛的主权要求，但并没有规定向哪个国家移交主权。


As a result, these islands remain legally under the collective custody of the treaty’s 48 other parties – including two claimants to the islands, the Philippines and Vietnam.	因此相关岛屿依然由条约的其他48个缔约国集体代管——其中包括菲律宾和越南两个主权要求国。


China – then in the third year of Mao Zedong’s rule – was not even invited to participate in the peace conference.	中国当时是毛泽东治下的第三年，甚至没有被邀请参加和平会议。


Although Mao’s communists had clearly won the civil war and secured control of mainland China, the conference organizers disagreed about which government – Mao’s People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing, or Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China (ROC) in Taipei – truly represented China.	尽管毛手下的共产党人已经毋庸置疑地赢得内战、取得了中国大陆的控制权，会议组织者仍然无法就北京以毛氏为首的中华人民共和国政府还是台北蒋氏中华民国政府真正代表中国达成一致。


As a result, the PRC denies that it is legally bound by the treaty.	中华人民共和国因此否认有遵守条约的义务。


But the treaty applies to the PRC indirectly through the ROC-Japan bilateral peace treaty of 1952, which was signed just hours before the San Francisco Treaty entered into effect and reaffirmed its terms – especially Japan’s renunciation of Taiwan.	但1952年中华民国－日本双边和平条约间接适用于中华人民共和国，该条约于旧金山条约正式生效前几小时签署且重申旧金山条约规定，特别是日本放弃对台湾的主权要求。


Indeed, the San Francisco Treaty required that the ROC-Japan treaty be consistent with it, thereby preventing Japan from assigning in its treaty with the ROC any additional right or title to any country other than the parties to the San Francisco Treaty.	事实上，旧金山条约要求中华民国－日本条约遵守其相关规定，从而防止日本在与中华民国的条约中将其他任何权利或所有权移交给旧金山条约以外的国家。


As a result, Japan is unable to recognize Taiwan as part of PRC sovereign territory.	日本因此不承认台湾是中华人民共和国的领土。


To be sure, the San Francisco Treaty per se is not legally binding for the PRC.	可以肯定，旧金山条约本身对中华人民共和国并不具有法律效力。


But, for Japan, the PRC has clearly succeeded the ROC in Taiwan, as demonstrated by the 1972 Japan-PRC Joint Communiqué, on the basis of which the bilateral Treaty of Peace and Friendship was concluded six years later.	但是对日本而言，正像1972年日中联合公报所表明的那样，中华人民共和国显然取代了台湾中华民国的合法地位，而六年后又在日中联合公报的基础上签署了日中和平友好条约。


When Japan shifted its diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC, it recognized the latter as the “sole legal government of China.”	当日本从中华民国转而承认中华人民共和国的时候，它明确后者才是“中国唯一的合法政府”。


Given that Japan was not recognizing China as a new state – international recognition of the Chinese state had existed without interruption since the ROC government emerged in 1912 – the PRC effectively accepted the rights and obligations of the previous government.	鉴于从1912年中华民国成立后中国就一直是国际承认的主权国家，也就是说日本并未承认中国的新国家地位——中华人民共和国实际上接手了上届政府的权利和义务。


Moreover, Japan did not recognize Taiwan as part of China, on the grounds that doing so would infringe on its obligations under the San Francisco Treaty.	此外，日本并没有承认台湾是中国的一部分，因为这样做违反其旧金山条约义务。


While Japan fully “understood” and “respected” the PRC’s declaration that Taiwan was an “inalienable” part of its territory, it did not recognize the claim in accordance with international law.	尽管日本完全“理解”并“尊重”中国关于台湾是其领土“不可分割”的一部分的声明，但日本不承认中国对台主权的立场符合国际法。


The two countries simply agreed to disagree over Taiwan’s legal status.	两国不过是在台湾法律地位问题上愿意求同存异。


In other words, Japan renounced Taiwan without reassigning it.	换句话讲，日本放弃了对台主权，但并未将其移交给其他国家。


To date, China has been silent about the implications of the San Francisco Treaty for its claims in the South China Sea.	迄今为止，中国一直对旧金山条约对其南中国海主权的影响沉默不语。


This may simply reflect a dearth of international legal expertise in this field or the state of China’s segmented, stove-piped policy communities.	这或许只是反映出该领域国际法知识的缺失，或者中国条块分割的政策现状。


But it could also stem from concerns that using the treaty’s legal reasoning, which conflicts with China’s stance on Taiwan, to resolve today’s territorial disputes would undermine its credibility and weaken its position.	但也有可能出于这样一种担忧，即运用条约与中国台湾立场相矛盾的法律推理解决当前领土争端将削弱中国的地位和公信力。


If left unchecked, China may use the South China Sea disputes to gain effective hegemony over weaker claimants.	如果任其发展，中国可能利用南海冲突对提出主权要求的小国谋求现实霸权。


All parties to the disputes, including China, can cite geographic and historical connections to the islands to back their claims, but none of them has solid legal title under the San Francisco Treaty.	包括中国在内的冲突各方都能提出地理和历史联系来支撑各自的主权要求，但按照旧金山条约规定，任何国家都不具备无可辩驳的法律所有权。


The US and other extra-regional powers should take advantage of this fact, invoking their latent collective custody of the Spratly and the Paracel Islands in accordance with the San Francisco Treaty, and internationalize separate bilateral diplomatic processes between China and regional claimants.	美国和其他地区外大国应当利用这一事实，依据旧金山条约的规定主张对西沙和南沙群岛的集体代管权，以期实现中国和地区主权国之间独立双边外交程序的国际化。


The treaty’s parties could even hold a conference to deliberate on the matter.	各缔约国甚至可以召开会议仔细研究相关事务。


Given that it would exclude China, such a discussion alone would be a game changer.	因为上述会谈把中国排除在外，因此这样的讨论本身就能改变游戏规则。


China’s Resurgent Warlords	复苏的中国军阀


OSAKA – Last December, the world was appalled by the North Korean government’s execution of Chang Song-thaek, an uncle-in-law of the young Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and the regime’s de facto second in command.	大阪—去年12月，朝鲜政府处决了最高领袖金正恩的姑父、朝鲜实际二号人物张成泽，全世界为之震惊。


Given Chang’s pivotal role in steering North Korea’s moribund economy, his execution raised serious doubts about the regime’s stability – raising fears of the collapse of a dynasty that possesses weapons of mass destruction.	张成泽是支撑濒临崩溃的朝鲜经济的关键人物，他被处决使人们严重怀疑朝鲜政权的稳定性，担心这个拥有大规模杀伤性武器的王朝崩溃。


But, ultimately, Chang’s execution really affected only one other country, North Korea’s only international ally: China.	但是，最终，张成泽被处决实际只影响了一个其他国家——朝鲜唯一的国际盟友中国。


Five months later, there remains no clear account of the motivation behind the decision to eliminate Chang.	五个月后，我们仍不知道决定清洗张成泽的背后动机。


Nonetheless, a series of in-depth analyses have offered some insight into the power struggle among North Korea’s leadership over the distribution of resources – including mining and other concessions – that are closely linked with the regime’s foreign policy.	尽管如此，一系列深度分析还是提供了一些朝鲜领导层在资源分配方面的权力斗争（包括采矿和其他让步）的洞见，这些斗争与朝鲜政权的外交政策关系非常密切。


Chang was known to have given priority to the regime’s economic survival over the development of nuclear weapons.	众所周知，张成泽认为经济生存是比开发核武器更重要的当务之急。


China – North Korea’s sole supplier of oil and food – strongly supported this approach.	中国——朝鲜唯一的石油和粮食供给者——强烈支持这一方针。


Why would the North Korean regime jeopardize its relationship with China, the only country that could bring it down immediately, just to execute one official?	为何朝鲜政权要破坏其与能够立刻让其崩溃的唯一国家中国，处决张成泽呢？


Assuming that Kim is rational, he must have had good reason to believe that the Chinese lifeline would be sustained, even if he executed China’s favorite North Korean interlocutor.	假定金正恩是理性的，那么他一定有很好的理由认为，即使他处决了中国所喜欢的朝鲜传话人，仍能够维持中国生命线。


The only possible explanation lies in the Chinese government’s struggle to control the Shenyang Military District, which borders North Korea.	唯一可能的解释在于中国政府内部的沈阳军区控制权之争。


Otherwise, China may well have stopped supplying oil and food to the North after Kim’s regime conducted nuclear tests, in line with United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874, which imposed stringent economic sanctions against North Korea.	否则，在金氏政权进行核试验后，中国早就可以根据联合国安理会1718和1874号决议（决定对朝鲜实施严厉经济制裁），切断对朝石油和粮食供应。


China could have vetoed both resolutions, in order to avoid North Korea’s collapse and the inflows of refugees that would result from it.	中国也可以否决两份决议，以避免朝鲜的崩溃和可能由此导致的难民涌入。


But it chose not to.	但中国并未这样做。


The problem was that the Shenyang Military District refused to implement them.	问题就在于沈阳军区拒绝实施。


Even if China deliberately acted falsely – endorsing sanctions, while knowing that it would not enforce them – it would have used its support for Chang to tame Kim.	即使中国有意虚与委蛇——明知不会执行而支持制裁——也会通过支持张成泽来使金正恩服帖。


Chang’s execution was thus a straightforward challenge to Chinese President Xi Jinping – a move that, under normal circumstances, would prompt China to suspend, or at least reduce, its support for North Korea.	因此，张成泽的处决是对中国国家主席习近平的直接挑战——在常规情形中，这一动作将使中国中止、至少暂时削减对朝支持。


The fact that China did not suggests that Kim has somehow secured a lifeline directly from Shenyang.	中国并未这样做这一事实表明金正恩以设法保证了来自沈阳的直接生命线。


Bo Xilai, the former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chief in Chongqing who was sentenced last year to life in prison for bribery, embezzlement, and abuse of power, spent two decades in an area within Shenyang, including in stints as Mayor of Dalian City and Governor of Liaoning Province.	去年因受贿、贪污和滥用职权罪入狱的前中共重庆市委书记薄熙来在沈阳所在地区经营了二十年，历任大连市长、辽宁省长。


Exploiting popular discontent fueled by rapidly rising inequality, Bo, who had been widely viewed as a likely candidate for a top leadership position in the Politburo Standing Committee, adopted a neo-Maoist stance that China’s top leadership could not abide.	利用群众对不平等性的迅速恶化的不满，曾被广泛视为政治局常委有力人选的薄熙来采取了中国最高层领导无法容忍的新毛泽东主义。


But, as the economy slows, the regime’s legitimacy is increasingly being questioned, which implies that neo-Maoism may yet make a comeback.	但是，随着经济的减速，体制合法性正在日益遭受质疑，这意味着新毛泽东主义可能卷土重来。


Indeed, it is a stance that resonates deeply with the egalitarian tradition of the People Liberation Army (PLA), as well as with its institutional interests, particularly those in the Shenyang District.	事实上，这一立场在有着深刻平均主义传统的解放军种反响强烈，也与解放军的集体利益（institutional interests），特别是沈阳军区的集体利益一致。


As it stands, in order to meet China’s strategic and operational needs in coping with the United States and its allies, particularly Japan, the government is emphasizing the modernization and professionalization of the navy and air force.	事实上，为了满足中国应对美国及其盟友（特别是日本）的战略和策略需要，中国政府着重于海军和空军的现代化和专业化。


To this end, it has been redirecting spending away from the army.	在这方面，军事支出的方向进行了调整。


Of the seven military districts, Shenyang’s mechanization and mobility makes it the most potent.	在七大军区中，沈阳军区的机械化和移动性能是最强的。


In fact, it houses four of the PLA’s five mechanized army corps, with the fifth protecting China’s strategic nuclear forces in Sichuan.	事实上，解放军五大机械化军有四个在沈阳军区，另一个在四川保护战略核力量。


In 1992, China’s government established two additional mechanized corps in the Shenyang District to deter and, if necessary, respond to tumult in North Korea.	1992年，中国政府在沈阳军区新建两个机械化军，以威慑朝鲜并在朝鲜发生动乱时有所反应。


Given the CCP’s fear of warlordism – which played a key role in China’s dismemberment after the fall of the Qing Dynasty in 1911 – this imbalance in favor of Shenyang is odd.	中共害怕军阀——这是1911年清朝覆灭后中国陷入分裂的关键原因——如此偏向沈阳令人奇怪。