There is bound to be more convergence down the road, when he decides to define Israel’s real, not ideological, red lines.	当他设定以色列真正而不是意识形态的底线时，为了合作，他必须知道如何实行正确的路线。


It is because Netanyahu is driven by an almost Messianic determination to prevent Iran from acquiring the means to destroy Israel, that he might be amenable to a fundamental change in his position on Palestine, provided Obama makes visible headway in his drive to stop Iran’s nuclear program.	这是因为内塔尼亚胡肩负着历史的使命：不惜一切代价阻止伊朗获得摧毁以色列的武器。 为了配合奥巴马总统阻止伊朗核项目的计划，他可以就巴勒斯坦问题上作出根本的让步。


In Netanyahu’s view, solving the Palestinian problem would not remove the Iranian challenge; rather, it is the neutralization of that existential threat that would pave the way to the creation of a Palestinian state.	在内塔尼亚胡本人看来，即便解决了巴勒斯坦问题，也不能消除伊朗的威胁，只有解决现阶段对以色列的危险，才能为巴勒斯坦国的建立扫清障碍。


Netanyahu also knows that the Arab side’s failures have nurtured radical Zionism.	内塔尼亚胡同时明白，正是阿拉伯世界的失败才导致犹太复国主义运动的兴起。


As John Kerry, the Chairman of the US Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee, put it, “this peace process is not a one way street” in which the onus is put exclusively on Israel. It remains to be seen if the abysmally dysfunctional Arab world and the powerful non-state agents in its midst, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, will respond the way Obama expects.	正如美国参议院外交委员会主席约翰·克里所言：“和平的道路不能只是单行线”，不能是以色列单方面地作出让步，而无能邪恶的阿拉伯政府和强大的非政权势力，（例如哈马斯和真主党等）可以同时并存，这也不是奥巴马总统所期待的局面。


More importantly, the Palestinian leadership must reshape and reunite its polity to face the challenge of statehood.	更为重要的是，巴勒斯坦领导层应该做出改变，重新架构目前的政体，以应对目前的局面。


So far, the task of reconciling Hamas and Fatah seems to be no less daunting than that of striking a peace deal with Israel.	到目前为止，对他们来说，和哈马斯及法塔赫能否达成协议比如何与以色列签署和平协定还要重要。


The End of the World as We Know It	正如我们所预料的世界末日


CAMBRIDGE – Consider the following scenario.	美国剑桥——考虑一下下列情景。


After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.	在希腊的左翼激进党派取得胜利后，新一届希腊政府表示想要与国际货币基金组织和欧盟重新商讨之前协定中的一些条款。


German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions.	但是德国总理安吉拉·默克尔坚持认为希腊必须遵守当前条件。


Fearing that a financial collapse is imminent, Greek depositors rush for the exit.	由于害怕金融崩溃日益临近，希腊的存款者们纷纷涌向银行取钱。


This time, the European Central Bank refuses to come to the rescue and Greek banks are starved of cash.	这一次，欧洲央行拒绝提供救助，希腊银行的现金储备都极度短缺。


The Greek government institutes capital controls and is ultimately forced to issue drachmas in order to supply domestic liquidity.	于是希腊政府建立起资本控制，并且最终不得不发行德拉克马货币以增加国内流动性。


With Greece out of the eurozone, all eyes turn to Spain.	随着希腊退出欧元区，全世界都把目光投向西班牙。


Germany and others are at first adamant that they will do whatever it takes to prevent a similar bank run there.	一开始德国和其它国家都信誓旦旦地表示他们将尽其所能来阻止西班牙出现类似的银行破产情况。


The Spanish government announces additional fiscal cuts and structural reforms.	西班牙政府也宣布增加财政削减幅度并进行结构改革。


Bolstered by funds from the European Stability Mechanism, Spain remains financially afloat for several months.	在来自欧洲稳定机制的资金的支持下，西班牙的经济状况又稳定了几个月。


But the Spanish economy continues to deteriorate and unemployment heads towards 30%.  Violent protests against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s austerity measures lead him to call for a referendum.	但是西班牙的经济仍然持续衰退，失业率飙升至30%。 总理马里亚诺·拉霍伊实行的紧缩措施遭到人们的强烈抗议，致使他不得不进行全民公投。


His government fails to get the necessary support from voters and resigns, throwing the country into full-blown political chaos.	由于他所领导的政府没有得到选举人的足够支持，只好辞职，这样一来西班牙却陷入更深的政治混乱之中。


Merkel cuts off further support for Spain, saying that hard-working German taxpayers have already done enough.	此时德国总理默克尔停止了对西班牙进行更多的帮助，她表示辛勤工作的德国纳税者们做的已经足够多了。


A Spanish bank run, financial crash, and euro exit follow in short order.	仅在很短时间内，西班牙一家银行破产，金融危机出现，该国也将要退出欧元区。


In a hastily arranged mini-summit, Germany, Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands announce that they will not renounce the euro as their joint currency.	在一次匆忙召开的小型峰会上，德国，芬兰，奥地利和荷兰都宣布他们不会放弃他们的共同货币——欧元。


This only increases financial pressure on France, Italy, and the other members.	这只会给法国，意大利和其它欧盟成员国带来更多的金融压力。


As the reality of the partial dissolution of the eurozone sinks in, the financial meltdown spreads from Europe to the United States and Asia.	由于现实中欧元区已陷入了部分解体，金融危机就从欧洲蔓延至美国和亚洲。


Our scenario continues in China, where the leadership faces a crisis of its own.	在中国这一情景也在发生，因为中国领导人也面临一场他们自己国家的危机。


The economy’s slowdown has already exacerbated social conflict, and recent developments in Europe have added fuel to the fire.	经济的下滑已经加剧了社会矛盾，而最近欧洲态势的恶化又算是火上浇油。


With European export orders canceled en masse, Chinese factories are faced with the prospect of massive layoffs.	随着出口欧洲的订单被大量取消，中国的许多工厂都面临大规模倒闭。


Demonstrations begin in major cities, calling for an end to corruption among party officials.	一些大城市已经开始了示威活动，要求遏制政府官员中的腐败行为。


China’s government decides that it cannot risk further strife and announces a package of measures to boost economic growth and prevent layoffs, including direct financial support for exporters and intervention in the currency markets to weaken the renminbi.	中国政府决定不能进一步冒着加剧冲突的风险，于是宣布实施一系列措施来刺激经济增长，抑制失业率的增加，包括对出口者进行直接的财政补助，并且干预外汇市场来削弱人民币。


In the US, President Mitt Romney has just taken office, following a hard-fought campaign in which he derided Barack Obama for being too soft on China’s economic policies.	在美国，刚上任的共和党总统米特·罗姆尼在随后进行的艰苦拼搏的竞选运动中嘲笑奥巴马对中国经济政策的态度太软弱了。


The combination of financial contagion from Europe, which has already led to a severe credit crunch, and a sudden flood of low-priced imports from China leaves the Romney administration in a bind.	与欧洲经济的蔓延相结合已经导致了严重的信贷危机，而突然间从中国大量涌入的廉价商品都让罗姆尼的团队陷入困境中。


Against the advice of his economic advisers, he announces across-the-board import duties on Chinese exports.	罗姆尼没有采取其经济顾问的建议，而是要求对中国出口物征收进口税。


His Tea Party backers, who were critical in mobilizing electoral support for him, urge him to go further and withdraw from the World Trade Organization.	那些在动员选民支持中起关键作用的茶党支持者们敦促罗姆尼态度应更加强硬一些，甚至要退出世界贸易组织。


Over the next few years, the world economy slumps into what future historians will call the Second Great Depression.	再过几年，世界经济的衰退程度会被未来的历史学家们称为第二次大萧条。


Unemployment rises to record-high levels. Governments without fiscal resources are left with little option but to respond in ways that will only exacerbate problems for other countries: trade protection and competitive exchange-rate depreciation.	失业率会攀升至前所未有的高度，许多政府由于没有资金来源，只能采取一些会加重别国问题的措施——贸易保护以及竞争性汇率贬值。


As countries sink into economic autarky, repeated global economic summits yield few results beyond empty promises of cooperation.	由于各国都进入经济上的闭关自守，频繁召开的全球经济峰会除了能带来要加强合作的空口承诺，再无其它���助。


Few countries are spared the economic carnage. Those that do relatively well share three characteristics: low levels of public debt, limited dependence on exports or capital flows, and robust democratic institutions.	很少有国家能在这场经济毁灭中幸存下来，而那些相对能较好幸存下来的国家都满足三个特点：低水平的公共债务，对出口和资本流动的有限依赖，以及强健的民主体系。


So Brazil and India are relative havens, even though their growth prospects are severely diminished as well.	这么看来巴西和印度相对而言都属于天堂之地，尽管他们经济增长的前景也极大降低。


As in the Great Depression, the political consequences are more serious and hold longer-term significance.	在大萧条中，政治上的后果更为严重，也会产生更长远的影响。


The eurozone’s collapse (and, for all practical purposes, that of the EU itself) forces a major realignment of European politics.	欧元区的瓦解强迫欧洲政治进行一次重大改组。


France and Germany compete openly as alternative centers of influence vis-à-vis the smaller European states.	法国和德国已经公开竞争，看谁能成为对欧洲较小国家产生影响的中心。


Centrist parties pay the price for their support of the European integration project, and are repudiated in the polls by parties of the extreme right or extreme left.	中间党派为支持欧洲一体化付出代价，却在投票中遭到极右或者极左党派的批判。


Nativist governments begin to kick out immigrants.	本土主义者领导的政府开始驱逐移民。


For nearby countries, Europe no longer shines as a beacon of democracy.	在最近的几个世纪中，欧洲不再是耀眼的民主的灯塔。


The Arab Middle East takes a decisive turn towards authoritarian Islamic states.	阿拉伯中东地区对独裁的伊斯兰国家的态度有了决定性的转变。


In Asia, economic strife between the US and China spills over into military conflict, with increasingly frequent naval clashes in the South China Sea threatening to erupt into a full-scale war.	在亚洲，中美间经济上的矛盾正扩展为军事上的斗争。 在中国南海地区两国间的海军冲突日益频繁，潜伏着可能会爆发成全面战争的威胁。


Many years later, Merkel, who has withdrawn from politics and become a recluse, is asked whether she thinks that she should have done anything differently during the euro crisis.  Unfortunately, her answer comes too late to change the course of history.	许多年后，有人会问已经退出政坛隐居起来的默克尔总理，她认为她是否应该在欧元区危机期间做一些不一样的事。 很不幸的是，她的答案来的太晚，已经无法改变历史的进程了。


A remote scenario?	这是否是个遥不可及的场景假设呢？


Perhaps, but not remote enough.	或许吧，但是这并没有那么遥远。


The End of Want?	短缺时代的终结？


Quarter after quarter the macroeconomic news from the United States teaches the same lesson: real GDP growth at a sustained rate of 3% per year is not enough to increase America's employment level.	一季又一季，美国的宏观经济信息都说明了同样的问题：国内生产总值每年3%的持续增长远不足以提升美国的就业水平。


Not even real GDP growth at a sustained annual rate of 4% is sufficient to increase the share of American adults who have jobs.	就算国内生产总值每年增长4%，靠它来增加美国成年人的就业比例也还是杯水车薪。 克林顿执政初期，美国潜在劳动生产率每年增长1.


The underlying rate of labor productivity growth in the US, which we pegged at 1.2% per year at the start of the Clinton administration and at 2% to 2.5% per year at the end of the 1990's boom, now seems even higher: it is getting harder and harder to keep the estimated labor productivity growth trend below 3% per year.	2%，20世纪90年代繁荣后期上升到2%到2. 5%，现在则进一步攀升：把劳动生产率的增长势头控制在每年3%以下越来越难了。


How long this boom in productivity growth will continue is anyone's guess: optimists point to the fact that waiting behind the information technology revolution, ready for takeoff, is the biotechnology revolution, and behind that is a looming nanotechnology revolution.	生产率快速增长到底能持续多久，人们众说纷纭：乐观者指出信息技术之后的生物科技即将腾飞，其后的纳米技术也已经初露端倪。


If such improvements in productivity do last, the vistas this will open are amazing: an America 50 years from now in which the average full-time worker earns not $40,000 a year, but the equivalent of today's $160,000 a year.	如果生产率的上升势头得以延续，将打开令人叹为观止的发展空间：50年后，美国普普通通的全职劳动者每年不仅能挣40，000美元，而且这40，000美元还相当于今天160，000的收入。


The US is at one pole of the world economy. China - even with its economic miracle since Deng Xiaoping went on his Southern Expedition - is at the other.	如果说美国只是世界经济的一极，邓小平南巡后开创了经济奇迹的中国则是另外的一极。


But China's labor productivity is now growing at roughly 6% per year.	而现在中国的劳动生产率以每年约6%的速度持续增长。


If that rate can be sustained - and if the Chinese economy becomes and remains integrated enough for us to be able to speak of it as a single entity - China's labor productivity will be comparable to today's America sometime before 2050.	如果保持这样的增长速度，如果中国经济能最终融合为一个整体－那么在2050年之前，中国的劳动生产率将能和今天的美国相提并论。


And India?	印度呢？


If the growth rates of the past 15 years continue, and if India remains united, its labor productivity in 2050 will be comparable to that of Spain today.	如果保持过去15年的增长速度，如果能够继续统一，那么它2050年的劳动生产率将能和今天的西班牙相媲美。


Now the world of 2050 will not be a paradise.	2050年的世界也不是天堂。


There will still be some regions where failed states do not protect property, enforce the law, encourage commerce, educate their citizens, or construct the physical, social, and organizational infrastructure necessary for people to make use of the magical technologies we have developed since the start of the Industrial Revolution.	在世界的某些角落，失败的国家将无法保护财产、执行法律、发展商业、教育公民、也无法建设工业革命以来种种魔幻技术为人们利用所需的基础设施和社会组织结构。


Similarly, there will still be wars, fought with ever more brutal and destructive weapons.	与此相似，战争仍会存在，交战的武器甚至更为野蛮、更有破坏性。


But we have good reason to hope that there will be fewer of them.	但我们有理由期待战争的数量会减少。


Next winter, it will be sixty years since an army crossed the Rhine River bringing death and destruction- the longest such period since at least the late second century B.C., when the Cimbri and Teutones challenged the army of the Roman Consul Gaius Marius in the Rhone Valley.	明年冬天，我们将迎来60周年纪念日。 60年前，一支军队越过莱茵河，给人们带来了死亡和灾难－这也是继公元前2世纪末辛布里和条顿族人在龙谷（Rhone Valley）迎战罗马执政官盖乌斯·马略（Gaius Marius）后持续时间最长的一场战争。


The world of 2050 will not have "solved the economic problem."	2050年的世界不会"已经解决了经济问题"。


The economy is the realm of things that have value. Things have value when they are both desirable and scarce.	经济是由有价值的事物构成的，只有人人想要但却稀缺的事物才会有价值。


We humans are very good at figuring out ways to make scarce things desirable.	我们人类最擅长想尽办法，让稀缺的事物变得供不应求。


But we do have an opportunity - and hence a duty - shared by no previous human generation: to make a world by 2050 in which nearly everyone has enough food to avoid hunger, enough clothing to keep warm, and enough shelter to remain dry - plus a super-broadband Internet connection.	但我们也的确面对着前辈们从未有过的机会，因此也成了义不容辞的责任：到2050年缔造一个大同世界，那里人人都有食物可以果腹、衣物能够御寒、房屋可以居住－还有超宽带因特网连接。


The stakes in this round of humanity's poker game are huge.	这一轮人类纸牌游戏的赌注特别巨大。


The first step toward winning the jackpot is to shape global public opinion in support of creating a world without want - to make progress towards this goal is the touchstone of international relations today.	赢得这场赌局的第一步是制造支持无短缺世界的公众舆论－让实现上述目标成为今日国际关系的试金石。


We no longer have large states driven by powerful, aggressive ideologies to remake the world in their own image by any means necessary. The major sources and uses of power in the world today are softer, although not weaker.	我们面对的不再是以强权和侵略理念不择手段地重塑世界的超级大国，在今天的世界，权力的来源和应用虽然并不虚弱，但却变得更为柔和。


As long as we can keep it this way, we humans have a good chance of achieving our most important collective task.	只要能保持下去，人类就有望实现最为重要的集体目标。


The Energy Deficit	能源赤字


MILAN – I have been surprised by the recent coverage in the American press of gasoline prices and politics.	米兰—最近，美国媒体关于汽油价格和政治的报道让我大吃一惊。


Political pundits agree that presidential approval ratings are highly correlated with gas prices: when prices go up, a president’s poll ratings go down.	政治学家们一致认为，总统支持率与汽油价格高度相关：汽油价格上升，则总统支持率下降。


But, in view of America’s long history of neglect of energy security and resilience, the notion that Barack Obama’s administration is responsible for rising gas prices makes little sense.	但是，考虑到美国长期不重视能源安全和弹性，因此奥巴马政府需要对汽油价格升高负责的说法是站不住脚的。


Four decades have passed since the oil-price shocks of the 1970’s.	20世纪70年代石油价格冲击距今已有40年。


We learned a lot from that experience.	我们从中学到了大量教训。


The short-run impact – as always occurs when oil prices rise quickly – was to reduce growth by reducing consumption of other goods, because oil consumption does not adjust as quickly as that of other goods and services.	短期影响——总是发生在油价快速上升时期——是抑制其他商品的消费从而拉低增长，因为石油消费的调整不像其他商品和服务那么快。


But, given time, people can and do respond by lowering their consumption of oil.	但是，假以时日，人们能够也将削减石油消费作为应对。


They buy more fuel-efficient cars and appliances, insulate their homes, and sometimes even use public transportation.	他们会购买更多的节能汽车和电器，加强房屋隔热，有时甚至改乘公交出行。


The longer-run impact is thus different and much less negative.	因此，长期影响与短期影响有很大不同，长期影响要小得多。


The more energy-efficient one is, the lower one’s vulnerability to price volatility.	你在节能方面做得越好，油价波动对你的影响也就越小。


On the supply side, there is a similar difference between short-term and longer-run effects.	在供给方面，也存在类似的短期和长期效应。


In the short term, supply may be able to respond to the extent that there is reserve capacity (there isn’t much now).	在短期，供给可以根据储备状况作出调整（如今，储备量可不多了）。


But the much larger, longer-run effect comes from increased oil exploration and extraction, owing to the incentive of higher prices.	但比短期大得多的长期影响则来自因油价高企产生的石油勘探和炼制激励。


All of this takes time, but, as it occurs, it mitigates the negative impact: the demand and supply curves shift in response to higher prices (or to anticipation of higher prices).	所有这些都需要时间，但一旦发生便能缓和不利影响：需求和供给曲线将因油价升高（或预计升高）而产生移动。


In terms of policy, there was a promising effort in the late 1970’s.	就政策而言，20世纪70年代末不可不谓有为。


Fuel-efficiency standards for automobiles were legislated, and car producers implemented them.	汽车节能标准出台，并由汽车制造商开始实施。


In a more fragmented fashion, states established incentives for energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings.	各州也行动起来，各自制定了住房和商业地产的节能激励措施。


But then oil and gas prices (adjusted for inflation) entered a multi-decade period of decline.	但此后石油和汽油价格（经通胀调整）进入了长达数十年的下跌期。


Policies targeting energy efficiency and security largely lapsed.	意在节能和保障能源安全的措施大多都失去了效果。


Two generations came to think of declining oil prices as normal, which accounts for the current sense of entitlement, the outrage at rising prices, and the search for villains: politicians, oil-producing countries, and oil companies are all targets of scorn in public-opinion surveys.	整整两代人都将油价的下跌视为理所当然，因此，如今出现了要求补贴、抗议涨价、寻找罪魁的风气：政客、产油国和石油公司无不成为公众观点调查报告千夫所指的对象。


A substantial failure of education about non-renewable natural resources lies in the background of current public sentiment.	对不可再生自然资源教育的严重不足是当前公众情绪的根源。


And now, having underinvested in energy efficiency and security when the costs of doing so were lower, America is poorly positioned to face the prospect of rising real prices.	此外，由于当初在成本较低时对节能和能源安全投资不足，如今美国在面临油价真实价格上涨的局面时显得尤为被动。


Energy policy has been “pro-cyclical” – the opposite of saving for a rainy day.	能源政策一直是“顺周期的”，即与未雨绸缪背道而驰。


Given the upward pressure on prices implied by rising emerging-market demand and the global economy’s rapid increase in size, that day has arrived.	不断增加的能源市场需求和全球经济规模的快速增长使得石油价格承受着升高压力——雨天终于来了。


Counter-cyclicality is a useful mindset for individuals and governments.	反周期才是个人和政府应该持有的观念。


Recent history, particularly the excessive accumulation of private and public debt, suggests that we have not acquired it.	近期的历史——特别是私人和公共部门债务过量积累的现象——表明，我们并没有做到反周期。


Energy policy or its absence seems another clear example.	能源政策（及其缺位）则是另一个显而易见的例子。


Rather than anticipating and preparing for change, the United States has waited for change to be forced upon it.	美国并没有预见到危机并为变化做好准备，而是等着危机来推动变化的产生。


Energy-policy myopia has not been confined to the US.	能源政策上的短视并非美国所独有。


Developing countries, for example, have operated for many years with fossil-fuel subsidies, which have come to be widely recognized as a bad way for governments to spend their limited resources.	比如，发展中国家多年来一直实施着化石燃料补贴，而这已被广泛视为绝非政府使用有限资源的良途。


Now these policies have to be reversed, which implies similar political challenges and costs.	眼下，必须反其道而行之，而这意味着同样的政治挑战和成本。


Western Europe and Japan, both of which are almost entirely dependent on external supplies of oil and gas, have done somewhat better.	欧洲和日本的石油和汽油几乎完全依赖外部输入，它们就做得比较好。


For security and environmental reasons, their energy efficiency increased via a combination of taxes, higher consumer prices, and public education.	出于安全和环境方面的考虑，它们通过税收、高价和公共教育来刺激节能。


The Obama administration is now working to initiate a sensible long-term approach to energy, with new fuel-efficiency standards for motor vehicles, investments in technology, energy-efficiency programs for dwellings, and environmentally sound exploration for additional resources.	奥巴马政府正在着手规划合理的长期能源政策，包括新的汽车节能标准、技术投资、住房节能计划，以及最重要可靠的新资源开发计划。


Doing this in the midst of an arduous post-crisis deleveraging process, a stubbornly slow recovery, the process of building a new, more sustainable growth pattern, is harder – politically and economically – than it might otherwise have been, had the US started earlier.ampnbsp;	美国正处于的艰难的后危机去杠杆过程中，经济复苏十分缓慢，要在此时实施能源新政，建设新的、可持续性更强的增长模式将比正常情况下（如果能早一点就事实的话）更加困难，不管在政治上还是经济上都是如此。


Still, better late than never.	但是，所谓亡羊补牢，犹未为晚。


Obama is correctly attempting to explain that effective energy policy, by its very nature, requires long-term goals and steady progress toward achieving them.	奥巴马试图解释节能政策的本质决定了这是一项长期目标，需要逐步完成，这是对的。


One frequently hears the assertion that democracies’ electoral cycles are poorly suited to implementing long-term, forward-looking policies.	很多人都听说过这样的观点：民主国家的选举周期与长期的前瞻性政策的实施格格不入。


The countervailing force is leadership that explains the benefits and costs of different options, and unites people around common goals and sensible approaches.	抗衡性的力量是向公众解释不通选择的利弊、将民众团结在共同目标和合理方法周围的领导人。


The Obama administration’s effort to put long-term growth and security above political advantage thus deserves admiration and respect.	因此，奥巴马政府试图将长期增长和安全置于保持政治优势之上，这一点值得我们敬仰和尊重。


If criticism of democratic governance on the grounds of its “inevitable short time horizon” were correct, it would be hard to explain how India, a populous, complex, and still-poor democracy, could sustain long-term investments and policies required to support rapid growth and development.	如果关于民主治理的“不可避免的短视”的批判是正确的，那么你就无法解释印度——人口众多、情况复杂、至今仍在贫困中挣扎的民主国家——如何能够维持支持快速增长和发展所需要的长期投资和政策。


There, too, vision, leadership, and consensus-building have played a critical role.	在印度，远见卓识、领导力以及凝聚力的建设又一次起到了关键作用。


The good news for US energy security is that in 2011, the country became a new net exporter of petroleum products.	对美国的能源安全来说，好消息是在2011年，美国转变为成品油净出口国。


The price of fossil fuels, however, is likely to continue to trend upward.	但是，化石燃料的价格可能还将延续上涨趋势。


Declining dependence on external sources, properly pursued, is an important development.	合理地追求减少对外部资源的依赖是发展的重要表现。


But it is not a substitute for higher energy efficiency, which is essential to making the switch to a new and resilient path for economic growth and employment.	但这不能替代更高的节能标准，后者才是促使向新的更具弹性的经济增长和就业之路转变的关键。


A side benefit would be to unlock a huge international agenda for energy, the environment, and sustainability, where American leadership is required.	这一过程还有一个附带好处：启动宏伟的国际能源、环境和可持续性日程——这些日程都需要美国的领导。


This effort requires persistence and a long official attention span, which in turn presupposes bipartisan support.	这需要韧劲和长期的政府关注，而后两者又要求两党同时支持。


Is that possible in America today?	对于今日的美国来说，这可能吗？


The US political system’s persistently low approval ratings stem in part from the fact that it seems to reward obstructionism rather than constructive bipartisan action.	美国政治制度的持续性低支持率部分源于其奖励从中作梗而不奖励建设性跨党派行动这一事实。


At some point, voters will react against a system that amplifies differences and suppresses shared goals, and policy formation will revert to its more effective pragmatic mode.	总有一天，选民会起来反对放大分歧、抑制共同目标的制度，而政策体系会恢复到更高效的实用主义模式。


The question is when.	问题在于，“总有一天”是哪一天。


The Environmental Bullying of New Europe	新欧盟在环境问题上的劫贫济富


RIGA -- Instead of helping all EU member states to meet their own Kyoto goals, the European Commission is shifting what should be a shared burden onto its newest members, which are already the most environmentally efficient in the European Union.	RIGA——欧盟委员会不帮助所有欧盟成员国实现各自的《京都议定书》目标，反而将本应共同分担的责任推到最新成员国头上。


In doing so, the Commission is rewarding inefficiency and reducing the effectiveness of its commitments to clean up the environment.	在欧盟内部，这些新成员国的环保效率已经是最高的，因此，委员会这样做，是在奖励低效率，会降低欧盟为净化环境所做 努力的效果。


The Commission’s decision on Latvia’s National Allocation Plan (NAP) for 2008-2012 left only 55% of the CO2 emissions that Latvia requested.	委员会对拉脱维亚2008－2012国家分配计划（NAP）的决定，留给拉脱维亚的二氧化碳排放量配额只达到该国要求的55%。


Similarly, Estonia and Lithuania received only 52-53% of their requested quotas.	同样，爱沙尼亚和立陶宛也只得到了所求的配额的52-53%。


Serious cuts were also made to other new EU members’ quotas, prompting Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, as well as Latvia, to launch legal challenges.	其他欧盟新成员国的配额也被大幅削减，迫使波兰、捷克共和国、斯洛伐克与拉脱维亚一起提出司法异议。


Yet almost all of the old EU members received more than 90% of the requested quotas.	而原来的欧盟成员国几乎全部得到了所求配额的90%以上。


What is going on here?	这是怎么回事？


The Commission’s approach is misguided.	委员会的做法已误入歧途。


According to its own information, the aim of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is to help countries meet their 2010 Kyoto targets by using market instruments to encourage companies to reduce their CO2 emissions.	根据他们自己公布的信息，“欧盟排放交易计划”（EU-ETS）的目的是运用市场工具鼓励公司减少二氧化碳排放，从而帮助各国实现2010年的京都目标。


Logically, quotas should be linked to each member’s progress in complying with the Kyoto Protocol.	从逻辑上讲，配额应该与各成员国履行《京都议定书》的进程挂钩。


New EU member states are meeting their individual Kyoto commitments.	新的欧盟成员国都能完成各自的京都目标。


Most are committed to reducing emissions by 8% by 2010.	其中大多数的目标是到2010年减少8%的排放量。


Latvia is already projected to lower its emissions by 46% by that date, even without implementing any additional CO2 reduction policies.	拉脱维亚即使不实施任何额外的二氧化碳限制政策，到时候预计也能减少46%的排放量。


Indeed, the new EU members are projected to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 21% by 2010.	其实，新的欧盟成员国预计都能在2010年将各自的温室气体排放量减少至少21%。


Old EU members also have a collective Kyoto target of lowering their CO2 emissions by 8% by 2010, but they are projected to achieve a mere 4.6% reduction.	原来的欧盟成员国也有到2010年将排放量减少8%的集体目标，不过他们预计只能减少4.


Despite this, countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands, which are not expected to meet their Kyoto commitments, are being allowed to increase their emissions.	6%。 尽管如此，比利时和荷兰等预计无法实现京都目标的国家，还获准增加排放量。


It is imperative that the European Commission distributes all burdens evenly and fairly among the EU’s 27 members.	欧盟委员会应该在27个成员国之间均匀而公平地分摊所有责任。


Most new members have met or are approaching their Kyoto targets, and they need rapid economic growth to catch up with the rest of the EU.	大多数新成员国都已经或即将实现各自的京都目标，他们需要快速的经济增长，以赶上其他的欧盟国家。


But their ability to grow is being impaired because they lack the resources to confront the massive business lobbies of the EU’s most developed and richest countries.	但是他们发展的能力受到了限制，因为他们缺乏资源，无力对抗欧盟最发达和最富有成员国的大规模商业游说。


Making the Union’s newest members carry a disproportionate share of the burden of reducing the EU’s total amount of pollution is both unjust and foolish.	让欧盟最新的成员国在降低欧盟总体污染水平的任务中承担不成比例的份额，这既不公平，又十分愚蠢。


Latvia’s example is the most acute.	拉脱维亚的例子最为尖锐。


After regaining its independence from the Soviet Union, only remnants of the industrial behemoths of the communist era remained.	脱离苏联独立以后，共产主义时期的巨型工业实体只留下了一些残余。


As trade links with the former Soviet world collapsed, most of these giant firms collapsed.	随着与前苏联的贸易联系崩溃，这些大公司也大多垮台了。


Starting almost from an economic “point zero,” Latvian entrepreneurs have built a new and modern economy, based on new and efficient technologies.	拉脱维亚的企业家们几乎从经济“零点”起步，以高效的新技术为基础，建立起新的现代化经济。


As a result, Latvia has the lowest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the EU.	因此，拉脱维亚的人均温室气体排放量为欧盟最低。


But, despite being the EU’s third poorest country, the European Commission’s rulings mean that it must purchase emission quotas from richer and more polluting EU members that have done little to meet their Kyoto commitments.	但是，尽管拉脱维亚是欧盟第三贫困的国家，欧盟委员会的裁决还是意味着该国必须从更加富有、污染更大、而且在履行京都责任方面毫无建树的欧盟成员国那里购买排放配额。


This unbalanced approach is jeopardizing the economic development of Latvia and other vulnerable new member states, while old members enjoy a free ride.	这种不平衡的方式让原来的成员国搭上了免费的顺风车，却损害了拉脱维亚及其他脆弱的新成员国的经济发展。


In small economies such as Latvia and many of the other new member states, even one large project is important for the whole country’s progress.	在拉脱维亚和其他许多新成员国这样的小经济体内部，一个大型项目就对整个国家的发展有着重大影响。


The Commission’s decision to cut their CO2 emissions quotas may lead investors in desperately needed development projects to move outside of the EU, to countries with weaker environmental regulations, where their activities would contribute to higher global emissions.	委员会决定削减他们的二氧化碳排放配额，可能导致关系到国计民生的发展项目的投资者退出欧盟，转移到环境管制较弱的国家，而在这些国家，他们的活动还是会推动全球排放量的增加。


Additional emissions would occur when the goods are transported back to the EU.	等他们的产品运回欧盟，还是会造成额外的排放量。


As if this weren’t bad enough, the Commission is preparing an emission-trading scheme for EU airlines, with 2004 as the base year for setting quotas.	仿佛这还不够糟糕，委员会还准备制定一项欧盟航空公司排放交易计划，以2004年为基准年设定配额。


This is a clear disadvantage for airlines from the new EU members, as the number of passengers they carry increased sharply only after 2004, when these countries joined the EU.	对于新成员国的航空公司来说，这显然十分不利，因为他们运载的乘客人数是在2004年这些国家加入欧盟以后才大幅度增长的。


A recent decision to increase the share of energy from renewable sources to 20% by 2020 will also cause problems.	最近一项到2020年将可再生资源产生的能源所占份额提高20%的决定也会造成问题。


Latvia, for example, already generates 37% of its energy from renewable sources, but will now likely be slapped with a target of around 50%, while some other members will have targets below 10%.	例如，拉脱维亚已经有37%的能源来自可再生资源，但现在给该国制定的目标很有可能达到50%左右，而其他某些成员国的目标则低于10%。


Why are Latvia’s people, among the poorest in the Union, expected to pay for something that Europe’s richest people are finding difficult to do?	为什么欧盟中最贫困的拉脱维亚人民要为欧洲最富有国家的国民都觉得买不起的东西埋单？


Latvia and other new EU members have little recourse but to challenge the European Commission in court.	拉脱维亚和其他新成员国毫无办法，只能通过法庭对抗欧盟委员会。


But suits and countersuits are not how we imagined the EU working when we struggled to join it.	但是我们在费尽千辛万苦想要加入欧盟的时候，可没有想到欧盟的工作方式是诉讼和反诉讼。


We thought that Europe believed in sharing its burdens equitably.	我们以为欧洲信奉责任均摊的理念。


Unfortunately, when it comes to the environment, Europe’s have-nots are being told to carry the load by themselves.	不幸的是，在环境问题上，欧盟将重担放在穷国肩上。


The Environmental Effect of Tsunamis	海啸对环境的影响


Reports about the tsunamis that devastated Southeast Asia barely a month ago have understandably been dominated by tales of death, suffering, and the physical destruction of infrastructure.	就在一个月前，南亚发生海啸，有关人员死亡、灾民受难以及各种基础设施遭受严重破坏的报道占据了此次海啸报道的主题。


But man was not alone in feeling the impact.	但是受到影响的并非只有人类。


Ecosystems and other species were also hit.	生态系统和其他物种也遭到破坏。


To be sure, photographic and video images relayed by the media have shown trees swept away by waves and water-drenched lands.	固然，媒体转播的摄影照片和录像带显示出树木被巨浪冲走、大地一片汪洋的景象。


Other reports have mentioned wildlife that escaped the destruction, as some sort of instinct seemed to tell them to seek higher ground prior to the arrival of the tsunami waves.	但在一些其他报道中还曾提到了逃避这场劫难的野生动植物，一种本能似乎告诉它们在海啸巨浪到来之前寻找高地逃生。


And yet the full scope of the tsunamis’ environmental impact remains under-reported, despite its obvious importance for the recovery of the affected areas and the well being of the survivors.	尽管受灾地区的重整工作和幸存者的生活条件明显更为重要，但是海啸对环境的总体影响还是被低估了。


Experience from previous tsunamis and other major floods suggests that the environmental damage they inflict is linked to saltwater intrusion in ground water and to the disappearance or relocation of beaches.	从先前的海啸和其它特大洪灾来看，由海啸和洪灾引发的环境破坏总是与海水侵蚀地下水以及沙滩消失或移位紧密联系在一起。


Tsunamis may make small, low islands uninhabitable.	海啸也许已经使得一些面积小、地势低的岛屿无法居住。


Vegetation in large stretches of lowland can be hurt substantially as saltwater-tolerant mangroves and grasses take over from other species.	若能够抵御海浪的红树林和草地被其他物种所替代，低地上绵延不断的植被将遭到根本性破坏。


For rare animals with specific reproduction sites, like marine turtles, the tsunami’s effects could spell extinction.	至于那些有特殊繁殖地点的珍稀动物，比如海龟，海啸的影响甚至还会导致物种灭绝。


But whereas the damage to the environment on land can be seen, the ravages imposed on the marine environment are hidden.	尽管海啸对陆地环境的破坏已显然可见，但是海洋环境所受的蹂躏创伤却被隐匿了。


Obviously, when extremely strong waves hit coral reefs, some coral breaks off.	表面来看，当狂浪袭击珊瑚礁的时候，一些珊瑚礁被击得粉碎。


But this is a comparatively small problem.	但这相对而言只是一个小问题。


The surface of coral is highly sensitive, and will now be exposed to major damage from all sorts of silt and debris carried back by water receding from flooded land.	表面极其敏感的珊瑚现在面临的致命威胁，是来自受灾地区退潮时被海啸卷入海底的各种淤泥和残渣。


At the same time, the material brought back from land to sea include nutrients and trace elements that cause a boom among plankton, which in turn feed other marine biota.	与此同时，由陆地带到海洋的物质中富含各种营养和微量元素，为浮游生物的繁荣创造了良好条件，并为其他海洋生物提供了食物。


Locally, but sometimes still at a grand scale, the shock waves cause major sediment slides on steep underwater slopes such as those of the continental shelves.	局部范围（有时候也出现大规模的）的冲击波，会引起海底斜坡上的海底沉淀物发生滑动倾泻，诸如大陆架斜坡上的海底沉淀物。


Closer to the shore, many natural ecosystems, most notably coral reefs and mangroves, act as natural shock absorbers and wave breakers.	在海岸附近，许多天然生态系统，最著名的莫过于珊瑚礁和红树林，都发挥着天然屏障的作用，能吸收冲击波并抵御狂浪侵袭。


During the past several decades, these ecosystems have been damaged and reduced in most countries along the Indian Ocean.	但是在过去的七十多年里，多数印度洋沿海国家的生态系统在遭到严重破坏，数量持续递减。


Indeed, the damage from the tsunami waves was far more devastating than it would have been had they still been intact.	要是它们得以完好保护的话，此次海啸造成的损失将远没有现在这么极具破坏性。


Wildlife may fare better than the physical environment.	野生动植物的境遇也许比自然环境要好一点。


This is particularly true of fish stocks, owing to large-scale destruction to fisheries.	由于鱼类养殖业受到大规模破坏，这点在鱼类种群身上尤为明显。


More than 13,000 fishermen were killed and another 5,000 evacuated in Sri Lanka alone, with 80% of the fishing fleet lost or severely damaged.	一万三千多名渔夫死于海啸，另有五千名渔夫撤离至斯里兰卡，80%的渔船队失踪或严重损坏。


On the Thai coast, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 4,500 fishing vessels were smashed, jeopardizing the livelihoods of 120,000 people in fishing villages there.	在泰国海边，据联合国食品和农业组织报告，4,500艘捕鱼船被击得粉碎，沿海渔村约有120,000人遇险。


The situation on Sumatra is similarly grim, and it is perhaps even worse in the Maldives, Laccadives, Andamans, and Nikobar islands, where not only fishermen and boats were lost, but harbours were ruined.	苏门答腊岛上的形势也一样严峻，也许甚至比马尔代夫、Laccadives岛、安达曼群岛、Nikobar群岛还要糟糕，那里不仅渔夫失踪，渔船被海浪打沉，连海港也被海浪所吞噬摧毁。


Along the coast of the Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, some 30% of the fishery capacity was lost.	印度沿海的Andhra Pradesh和Tamil Nadu 两省的渔捕能力损失高达30%。


Mozambique, Somalia, and Tanzania on the African side of the Indian Ocean have also reported severe damage to their fishing.	据报道，非洲的印度洋沿海国家，诸如莫桑比克、索马里、坦桑尼亚的渔业也损失惨重。


Such major losses in fishing capacity, with their far-reaching negative socio-economic consequences on the human populations affected, are bound to have major, mostly favourable, effects on the fish stocks.	从长远来看，渔捕能力遭受如此重大损失将对受灾地区人口产生负面社会经济后果，但对于鱼类种群却定然会带来重大且多为有利的影响。


The reason is simple: with most fish populations nowadays hit hard by over-fishing, fewer fishermen will mean more fish.	原因很简单，由于如今的过度渔捞，鱼类种群急剧递减，渔夫人数的减少将意味着更多的鱼群。


Another factor that will help fish stocks is a religiously motivated hesitation by the public in some areas to eat marine fish, as they are perceived to have fed on human corpses washed to sea.	另一个能帮助鱼类种群的因素是，某些地区的人们出于宗教原因对食用海洋鱼类心存芥蒂，因为他们认为海洋鱼类以吃被冲下海的人类尸体为生。


It may seem cruel or cold-hearted to focus on such environmental outcomes in the wake of vast human loss and suffering.	在遭受了巨大的人员损失和痛苦后，现在把关注重点放在这些环境结果上面未免有些冷酷无情。


But as the world attempts to mount a civilized response to Southeast Asia’s human tragedy, it must also confront the humbling amorality of nature, and thus comprehend the environmental effects that will shape the lives of survivors and their descendants.	但是当世界试图对发生在南亚的人间惨剧做出一个文明有礼的反应，它也必须面对大自然温和的道德违规，并从而理解将会决定幸存者及他们后代生活的环境影响。


The Environmental Fallout of the War in Lebanon	é»Žå·´å«©æˆ˜äº‰çš„çŽ¯å¢ƒåŽæžœ


The number of people killed as a result of Israel’s offensive in Lebanon at the time of this writing is reported to be roughly 800 Lebanese and 120 Israelis – not an atypical ratio for Arab-Israeli conflicts. The UN estimates the number of displaced persons to be more than a million, about 800,000 of them Lebanese.	åœ¨ä»»ä½•ä¸€åœºæˆ˜äº‰ä¸ï¼Œäººä»¬å…³æ³¨çš„ç„¦ç‚¹éƒ½æ˜¯é‚£äº›æ»äº¡ã€è´Ÿä¼¤å’Œæµç¦»å¤±æ‰€çš„äººã€‚åœ¨ç¬”è€…æ’°å†™è¿™ç¯‡æ–‡ç« çš„æ—¶å€™ï¼Œç”±äºŽä»¥è‰²åˆ—å¯¹é»Žå·´å«©å‘åŠ¨æ”»å‡»å·²ç»é€ æˆ800åé»Žå·´å«©äººå’Œ120åä»¥è‰²åˆ—äººæ»äº¡â€”è¿™æ ·çš„æ¯”ä¾‹åœ¨é˜¿æ‹‰ä¼¯å’Œä»¥è‰²åˆ—çš„å†²çªä¸æ˜¯å¾ˆæ£å¸¸çš„ã€‚æ®è”åˆå›½é¢„æµ‹ï¼Œæµç¦»å¤±æ‰€çš„äººå°†ä¼šè¶…è¿‡ä¸€ç™¾ä¸‡ï¼Œè€Œå…¶ä¸é»Žå·´å«©äººæœ‰çº¦80ä¸‡ã€‚


Of course, infrastructure can be rebuilt much more quickly than the environment can be restored or recover on its own. In the case of Lebanon, however, the two are closely linked, as much of the environmental damage comes from destroyed infrastructure.	æ•Œå¯¹è¡Œä¸ºåœæ¢ä¹‹åŽï¼Œå…¶å¯¹åŸºç¡€è®¾æ–½å’ŒçŽ¯å¢ƒé€ æˆçš„ç ´åä¼šç»§ç»å˜åœ¨ã€‚å½“ç„¶ï¼ŒåŸºç¡€è®¾æ–½çš„é‡å»ºè¦æ¯”çŽ¯å¢ƒçš„è‡ªæˆ‘æ¢å¤å¿«å¾—å¤šã€‚ç„¶è€Œï¼Œå¯¹é»Žå·´å«©æ¥è¯´ï¼Œè¿™ä¸¤è€…æ˜¯å¯†åˆ‡ç›¸å…³çš„ã€‚è®¸å¤šå¯¹çŽ¯å¢ƒçš„ç ´åéƒ½æ˜¯ç”±è¢«æ¯åçš„åŸºç¡€è®¾æ–½é€ æˆçš„ã€‚


For a rare species of sea turtle this is bad news, as the eggs laid in the sand on those very beaches in the annual spawning season are due to hatch at precisely this time of the year. The total amount of oil released into the sea is now well over 100,000 tons.	æ£å¦‚åœ¨å¤§å¤šæ•°çŽ°ä»£æˆ˜äº‰ä¸ä¸€æ ·ï¼ŒçŸ³æ²¹çš„æ³„æ¼æ˜¯æœ€æ˜¾è€Œæ˜“è§çš„åŽæžœä¹‹ä¸€â€”å®ƒä¹Ÿå› æ¤æˆä¸ºè¢«æœ€å¹¿æ³›æŠ¥é“çš„çŽ¯å¢ƒæ±¡æŸ“ã€‚ç›´åˆ°æˆ˜äº‰çˆ†å‘å‰ï¼Œé»Žå·´å«©çš„æµ·å²¸æ˜¯åœ°ä¸æµ·åœ°åŒºæœ€æ´å‡€çš„æµ·å²¸ä¹‹ä¸€ã€‚è€ŒçŽ°åœ¨å®ƒä»¬åœ¨å¾ˆå¤§ç¨‹åº¦ä¸Šéƒ½è¢«çŸ³æ²¹è¦†ç›–äº†ã€‚å¯¹äºŽä¸€ç§ç¨€æœ‰çš„æµ·é¾Ÿæ¥è¯´è¿™çœŸæ˜¯åæ¶ˆæ¯ã€‚å› ä¸ºæ¯å¹´çš„äº§åµå£èŠ‚å®ƒä»¬åœ¨è¿™äº›æµ·æ»©ä¸Šäº§ä¸‹çš„åµæ£å¥½åº”è¯¥åœ¨è¿™ä¸ªæ—¶å€™åµåŒ–å‡ºæ¥ã€‚é‡Šæ”¾åˆ°æµ·é‡Œçš„çŸ³æ²¹çŽ°åœ¨è¿œè¿œè¶…è¿‡äº†10ä¸‡å¨ã€‚


Naturally, oil cisterns are not the only targets, and coastal locations are not the only regions hit. It is far too early to assess the damage done by releases of other, less visible, chemicals, but it is safe to assume that ground water will be contaminated for a long time.	è‡ªç„¶ï¼Œå‚¨æ²¹è®¾æ–½å¹¶éžå”¯ä¸€çš„æ”»å‡»ç›®æ ‡ï¼Œæ²¿æµ·åœ°åŒºä¹Ÿä¸æ˜¯å”¯ä¸€å—åˆ°æˆ˜ç«æ‘§æ®‹çš„åœ°åŒºã€‚çŽ°åœ¨è¦è¯„ä¼°å…¶ä»–ç›¸å¯¹ä¸æ˜Žæ˜¾çš„åŒ–å¦ç‰©è´¨æŽ’æ”¾æ‰€é€ æˆçš„çŽ¯å¢ƒç ´åè¿˜ä¸ºæ—¶å°šæ—©ï¼Œä½†æˆ‘ä»¬æœ‰ç†ç”±è®¤ä¸ºåœ°ä¸‹æ°´è¢«æ±¡æŸ“çš„æƒ…å†µä¼šæŒç»ç›¸å½“ä¸€æ®µæ—¶é—´ã€‚çŽ¯å¢ƒè¶Šå¹²ç‡¥ï¼Œé—®é¢˜å°±è¶Šä¸¥é‡ã€‚


Worse still, there is little capacity to fight them, as existing fire-fighting resources are used to try to save human lives. Consequently, bushes and forests burn, reducing the stands of cedar trees – a symbol of Lebanon as much as the bald eagle is of the United States – by the day towards extinction.	å¦å¤–ï¼Œç‚¸å¼¹å’Œæ‰‹æ¦´å¼¹æ‰€ç‡ƒçƒ§çš„ä¸ä»…æ˜¯å»ºç‘ï¼Œè¿˜æœ‰è‰ã€çŒæœ¨å’Œæ ‘æœ¨ã€‚æ‰€ä»¥ç”±æ¤å¼•å‘çš„æ£®æž—å’Œè‰åŽŸå¤§ç«çš„æ•°é‡å°±è¦æ¯”å¹³å¸¸çš„å¤å£å¤šã€‚æ›´ç³Ÿç³•çš„äº‹ï¼Œæ‰‘æ•‘å·¥ä½œå‡ ä¹Žæ— æ³•å®žæ–½ï¼Œå› ä¸ºçŽ°æœ‰çš„æ¶ˆé˜²èµ„æºéƒ½è¢«ç”¨æ¥æ•‘æ»æ‰¶ä¼¤äº†ã€‚å…¶åŽæžœå°±æ˜¯çŒæœ¨å’Œæ£®æž—è¢«çƒ§æ¯ï¼Œè‡´ä½¿é›ªæ¾çš„æ•°é‡æ—¥ç›Šå‡å°‘ï¼Œæ¿’ä¸´çç»ã€‚è€Œé›ªæ¾æ˜¯é»Žå·´å«©çš„è±¡å¾ï¼Œæ£å¦‚ç§ƒé¹°æ˜¯ç¾Žå›½çš„è±¡å¾ä¸€æ ·ã€‚ä¸€ä¸ªç‹¬ç‰¹çš„ç”Ÿæ€ç³»ç»Ÿæ£åœ¨æ¶ˆå¤±ã€‚


One such type of wound reportedly resembles second-degree burns over large parts of bodies, but with the hairs intact – not a typical reaction to fire and heat. There have been suggestions that agents containing some acid or alkali were possibly stored in buildings destroyed in the bombing.	è¿˜æœ‰ä¸€äº›å¤šè§è¯¸å› ç‰¹ç½‘è€ŒéžæŠ¥ç«¯çš„æŠ¥é“ï¼Œå…³äºŽç»æœ›çš„é»Žå·´å«©åŒ»ç”Ÿæ— æ³•ç¡®è¯Šåœ¨ä»¥��‰²åˆ—ç©ºè¢ä¸å—ä¼¤çš„äººçš„ä¼¤æƒ…ï¼ŒäºŽæ˜¯å°†å…¶æ‰€è§æè¿°å‡ºæ¥å¹¶è¯·æ±‚ä¸–ç•Œå„åœ°åŒè¡Œçš„å¸®åŠ©ã€‚æ¯”å¦‚æŠ¥é“ä¸æœ‰ä¸€ç§ç±»ä¼¼äºŽå¤§é¢ç§¯äºŒåº¦çƒ§ä¼¤çš„æƒ…å†µï¼Œä½†ä¼¤è€…çš„æ¯›å‘å´å®Œå¥½æ— æŸâ€”è¿™ä¸åŒäºŽèº«ä½“å¯¹ç«å’Œçƒé‡çš„å…¸åž‹ååº”ã€‚æœ‰äººæŽ¨æµ‹åœ¨è¢«è½°ç‚¸æ‘§æ¯çš„å»ºç‘ä¸å¯èƒ½å‚¨è—ç€é…¸æ€§æˆ–ç¢±æ€§çš„ç‰©è´¨ã€‚


The last word probably has not been heard. One has only to recall “Gulf War Syndrome,” which emerged after the 1991 conflict, and the controversy surrounding the issue of what, if anything, affected US soldiers, to understand how difficult it can be to answer such questions until well after the fact.	æ ¹æ®è¿™ç§ç†è®ºï¼Œè¿™äº›ç‰©è´¨æ˜¯åœ¨å¯¼å¼¹æˆ–ç‚¸å¼¹è¢å‡»ä¹‹åŽè¢«é‡Šæ”¾å‡ºæ¥ï¼Œè€Œä¸æ˜¯å¼¹å¤´æ‰€æºå¸¦çš„ã€‚ä½†å¬åˆ°åŽé¢è¿™å¥è¯çš„äººå¯èƒ½æ²¡å‡ ä¸ªã€‚æˆ‘ä»¬åªéœ€è¦å›žæƒ³ä¸€ä¸‹åœ¨1991å¹´çš„æµ·æ¹¾æˆ˜äº‰ä¹‹åŽå‡ºçŽ°çš„â€œæµ·æ¹¾ç»¼åˆç—‡â€ï¼Œä»¥åŠæœ‰å…³ç©¶ç«Ÿæ˜¯ä»€ä¹ˆåŽŸå› ä½¿å¾—ç¾Žå›½å£«å…µç½¹æ‚£è¿™ç§æ€ªç—…çš„äº‰è®ºï¼Œå°±ä¸éš¾æ˜Žç™½åœ¨äº‹æƒ…å‘ç”Ÿä¹‹åŽå†æ¥æŽ¢å¯»ä¸ªä¸å°±é‡Œä¼šæ˜¯å¤šä¹ˆå›°éš¾ã€‚


As in many parts of the world with hot climates, apartment and office buildings in Lebanon use asbestos for heat insulation. This has been standard practice for decades, and most buildings that have been erected or restored since Israel’s last bombings in 1982 have plenty of it.	å¯¹å¥åº·æœ€åçš„çŽ¯å¢ƒå½±å“å¾ˆå¯èƒ½ä¸ŽåŸºç¡€è®¾æ–½çš„æ¯åç›´æŽ¥ç›¸å…³ï¼šçŸ³æ£‰çš„é‡Šæ”¾ã€‚æ£å¦‚ä¸–ç•Œä¸Šè®¸å¤šæ°”å€™ç‚Žçƒçš„åœ°æ–¹ä¸€æ ·ï¼Œé»Žå·´å«©çš„å…¬å¯“å’Œå†™å—æ¥¼ä½¿ç”¨çŸ³æ£‰æ¥éš”çƒã€‚è¿™ç§æ ‡å‡†çš„åšæ³•å·²ç»å»¶ç»äº†æ•°åå¹´ï¼Œåœ¨ä»¥è‰²åˆ—1982å¹´çš„ç©ºè¢ä¹‹åŽæ–°å»ºæˆ–é‡å»ºçš„å»ºç‘éƒ½å«æœ‰å¤§é‡çš„çŸ³æ£‰ã€‚


The protective suits that specially-trained people are legally required to wear in the European Union or the US when demolishing, rebuilding, or repairing any building containing asbestos underscore the risk of pulmonary fibrosis and lung cancer for Lebanese who inhale dust from bombed-out houses and offices. Indeed, US companies have been forced to pay tens of billions of dollars to ex-employees who worked with asbestos.	å½“çŸ³æ£‰è¢«ç‚¸å¼¹æˆ–å¯¼å¼¹ç²‰æœ«åŒ–åŽï¼Œå…¶çº¤ç»´å°±è¢«é‡Šæ”¾å‡ºæ¥ï¼Œå¹¶ä¸”èƒ½å¤Ÿå’Œç°å°˜ä¸€æ ·è¢«äººä½“å¸å…¥ã€‚æ¬§ç›Ÿå’Œç¾Žå›½çš„ä¸“ä¸šäººå‘˜åœ¨æ‹†é™¤ã€é‡å»ºæˆ–ç»´ä¿®ä»»ä½•å«æœ‰çŸ³æ£‰çš„å»ºç‘æ—¶å¿…é¡»èº«ç€é˜²æŠ¤æœçš„æ³•å¾‹è§„å®šï¼Œå‡¸çŽ°äº†é»Žå·´å«©äººåœ¨è¢«ç‚¸æ¯çš„å»ºç‘ä¸å¸å…¥ç²‰å°˜æ‰€é¢ä¸´çš„ç½¹æ‚£è‚ºçº¤ç»´åŒ–å’Œè‚ºç™Œçš„é£Žé™©ã€‚çš„ç¡®ï¼Œç¾Žå›½å…¬å¸å·²ç»è¢«è¿«å‘æ›¾ä¸ŽçŸ³æ£‰æ‰“äº¤é“çš„å‰é›‡å‘˜æ”¯ä»˜äº†æ•°ç™¾äº¿çš„èµ”æ¬¾ã€‚


Lebanon cannot afford to pay anything close to such a sum. But this is just one of many environmental debts that will somehow have to be paid in long after the fighting has stopped – by the victims, if by nobody else.	é»Žå·´å«©æ ¹æœ¬æ— æ³•æ”¯ä»˜å¦‚æ¤æ•°é¢çš„é‡‘é’±ã€‚ä½†è¿™æ°æ°æ˜¯åœ¨æˆ˜äº‰ç»“æŸåŽçš„å¾ˆé•¿ä¸€æ®µæ—¶é—´é‡Œäººä»¬éƒ½å¿…é¡»å¿è¿˜çš„çŽ¯å¢ƒå€ºåŠ¡ä¹‹ä¸€â€”å¦‚æžœæ²¡æœ‰å…¶ä»–äººå¯¹æ¤è´Ÿè´£ï¼Œé‚£ä¹ˆå°±åªèƒ½ç”±å—å®³è€…æ¥å¿è¿˜ã€‚


The Environment Fights Back	环境的报复


Our political systems and global politics are largely unequipped for the real challenges of today’s world.	我们的政治体制和全球政治大都没有做好迎接当今世界真正挑战的准备。


Global economic growth and rising populations are putting unprecedented stresses on the physical environment, and these stresses in turn are causing unprecedented challenges for our societies.	全球经济发展和人口不断增长给自然环境带来了前所未有的压力，而这些压力又给我们的社会带来了前所未有的挑战。


Yet politicians are largely ignorant of these trends.	但政治家们对这些趋势大都一无所知。


Governments are not organized to meet them.	政府也未能有效地组织起来迎接挑战。


And crises that are fundamentally ecological in nature are managed by outdated strategies of war and diplomacy.	这些危机从本质上看属于生态灾难，但人们仍然通过早已过时的战争和外交手段来加以管理。


Consider, for example, the situation in Darfur, Sudan.	比如苏丹的达尔富尔局势。


This horrible conflict is being addressed through threats of military force, sanctions, and generally the language of war and peacekeeping.	人们正试图通过军事、制裁威胁以及战争维和语言来化解这次可怕的冲突。


Yet the undoubted origin of the conflict is the region’s extreme poverty, which was made disastrously worse in the 1980’s by a drought that has essentially lasted until today.	但地区极端贫困才是导致达尔富尔冲突勿庸置疑的源泉，20世纪80年代发生的旱灾进一步加剧了这个地区的贫困，事实上，这场旱灾直到今天也没有结束。


It appears that long-term climate change is leading to lower rainfall not only in Sudan, but also in much of Africa just south of the Sahara Desert – an area where life depends on the rains, and where drought means death.	长期气候变化似乎不仅造成了苏丹降雨量减少，而且撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲大部分地区也深受其害¾在这样一个区域，生命能否延续完全取决于有没有降雨，在这里，旱灾就意味着死亡。


Darfur has been caught in a drought-induced death trap, but nobody has seen fit to approach the Darfur crisis from the perspective of long-term development rather than the perspective of war.	达尔富尔陷入了由干旱导致的死亡陷阱，但没有人愿意从长期发展、而不是战争的角度来处理达尔富尔危机。


Darfur needs a water strategy more than a military strategy.	达尔富尔真正需要的不是军事策略，而是水利策略。


Its seven million people cannot survive without a new approach that gives them a chance to grow crops and water their animals.	如果没有为那里的700万人口提供作物种植和牲畜饮水的最新办法，那里的人们就活不下去。


Yet all of the talk at the United Nations is about sanctions and armies, with no path to peace in sight.	但联合国会谈无一例外地是围绕着制裁和军队，根本看不到任何一丝和平解决的希望。


Water stress is becoming a major obstacle to economic development in many parts of the world.	水资源压力成了世界很多地方发展经济的主要障碍。


The water crisis in Gaza is a cause of disease and suffering among Palestinians, and is a major source of underlying tensions between Palestine and Israel.	加沙的水资源危机是造成巴勒斯坦人疾病和灾难的原因之一，也是巴以紧张局势背后一个重要的根源。


Yet again, billions of dollars are spent on bombing and destruction in the region, while virtually nothing is done about the growing water crisis.	但人们仍然毫不吝惜地把成百上千亿美元用于在该地区进行轰炸和破坏，却对于日益恶化的水资源危机熟视无睹。


China and India, too, will face growing water crises in the coming years, with potentially horrendous consequences.	中国和印度也将在今后若干年内面临日益严重的水资源危机，而且如果措置不力，很可能会引发可怕的后果。


The economic takeoff of these two giants started 40 years ago with the introduction of higher agricultural output and an end to famines. Yet part of that increased agricultural output resulted from millions of wells that were sunk to tap underground water supplies for irrigation.	40年前的农业生产发展和饥荒结束是这两个巨人经济腾飞的起点，但农业产量的增长部分地来源于为灌溉目的过度地开采地下水资源，从而导致成百上千万口水井下陷。


Now the water table is falling at a dangerous pace, as the underground water is being pumped much faster than the rains are recharging it.	目前水位正在以十分危险的速度下降，因为地下水的抽取速度远远超过了雨水的补充速度。


Moreover, aside from rainfall patterns, climate change is upsetting the flow of rivers, as glaciers, which provide a huge amount of water for irrigation and household use, are rapidly receding due to global warming.	不仅如此，除了降雨模式外，气候变化也影响了河流水量，因为全球变暖正在导致提供了大量灌溉和生活用水的冰川快速后退。


Snow pack in the mountains is melting earlier in the season, so that river water is less available during summer growing seasons.	山上的雪块正在提早融化，导致在作物生长的夏季供水量减少。


For all of these reasons, India and China are experiencing serious water crises that are likely to intensify in the future.	因为上述原因，印度和中国正面临严重的水资源危机，而且今后还可能不断恶化。


The United States faces risks as well.	美国也面临着同样的危险。


Midwestern and southwestern states have been in a prolonged drought that might well be the result of long-term warming, and the farm states rely heavily on water from a huge underground reservoir that is being depleted by over-pumping.	中西部和西南部各州经历了很可能因为长期变暖而导致的长期干旱，农业大州的经济非常依赖于大型的地下水库，但水库的水量却因为过度抽取正在日益枯竭。


Just as pressures on oil and gas supplies have driven up energy prices, environmental stresses may now push up food and water prices in many parts of the world.	正如石油和天然气的供应压力导致能源价格上涨一样，环境压力现在可能会抬高世界很多地方的食品和用水价格。


Given the heat waves, droughts, and other climate stresses across the US, Europe, Australia, and elsewhere this year, wheat prices are now shooting up to their highest levels in decades.	由于今年发生在美国、欧洲、澳大利亚和世界其他国家的热浪、干旱和其他气候灾难，小麦的价格目前已经飙升到几十年来的最高点。


Thus, environmental pressures are now hitting the bottom line – affecting incomes and livelihoods around the world.	这样，环境压力对人们的影响就已经到达了底线¾环境压力正在影响全世界民众的收入和生活。


With rising populations, economic growth, and climate change, we will face intensifying droughts, hurricanes and typhoons, powerful El Niño’s, water stress, heat waves, species extinctions, and more.	随着人口增长，经济发展和气候变化，干旱、飓风、台风、威力巨大的厄尔尼诺现象、水资源短缺、热浪侵袭、物种灭绝和其他灾难都会愈演愈烈。


The “soft” issues of environment and climate will become the hard and strategic issues of the twenty-first century.	原本“温和”的环境和气候问题将会成为21世纪人类所面对的最为艰巨的战略挑战。


Yet there is almost no recognition of this basic truth in our governments or our global politics.	但我们的政府和全球政治却对这一基本事实几乎一无所知。


People who speak about hunger and environmental crises are viewed as muddle-headed “moralists,” as opposed to the hard-headed “realists” who deal with war and peace. This is nonsense.	谈论饥荒和环境危机的人被看成是稀里糊涂的“理想主义者”，他们与拼命鼓吹战争和平论的冥顽不化的“现实主义者”构成了两大对立阵营。


The so-called realists just don’t understand the sources of tensions and stresses that are leading to a growing number of crises around the world.	但这样针对环境主义者的诋毁纯粹是一派胡言。 所谓的现实主义者根本就不明白导致全球危机不断升级的压力来源。


Our governments should all establish Ministries of Sustainable Development, devoted full-time to managing the linkages between environmental change and human well-being.	我们的政府都应该设立可持续发展部，一心一意地协调环境变化与人类福利之间的关系。


Agriculture ministers by themselves will not be able to cope with water shortages that farmers will face.	仅靠农业部长自身的力量无法解决困扰农民的缺水问题。


Health ministers will not be able to cope with an increase in infectious diseases due to global warming.	仅靠卫生部长自身的力量无法应对全球变暖所导致的传染病泛滥。


Environment ministers will not be able to cope with the pressures on oceans and forests, or the consequences of increasing extreme weather events like last year’s Hurricane Katrina or this year’s Typhoon Saomai – China’s worst in many decades.	仅靠环境部长个人的力量也无法缓解海洋和森林所受到的压力，以及像去年的卡特里那飓风或今年的桑美台风那样愈演愈烈的极端气候事件所造成的严重后果。 台风桑美是近几十年来中国发生的最为严重的台风灾害。


A new powerful ministry should be charged with coordinating the responses to climate change, water stress, and other ecosystem crises.	一个全新、有力的部门应该负责协调针对气候变化、水资源短缺和其他生态系统危机所采取的措施。


At the global level, the world’s governments should finally understand that the treaties that they have all signed in recent years on climate, environment, and biodiversity are at least as important to global security as all of the war zones and crisis hotspots that grab the headlines, budgets, and attention.	在全球范围内，世界各国政府应该最终理解他们近年来所签署的气候、环境和生物多样性协议对全球安全的意义至少和占据了头版头条、财政预算和吸引了人们关注的所有战区和危机热点同样重要。


By focusing on the underlying challenges of sustainable development, our governments could more easily end the current crises (as in Darfur) and head off many more crises in the future.	如果集中全力迎接可持续发展带来的挑战，我们的政府就能够更容易地解决目前的危机（比如达尔富尔）并防止将来爆发更多的危机。


The Environment of the Economy	经济的环境


No economy is a closed, autonomous universe, governed by rules independent from law, morals, and politics.	任何经济都不是独立于法律、道德和政治规则之外的与外界无关的封闭领域。


Indeed, the most interesting economic questions are generally located on the borderline with neighboring disciplines.	实际上，最能引起人们兴趣的问题往往出现在经济学与其他学科的临界点。


But nowhere is this clearer than in the interaction between economic processes and the natural environment.	但上述规律在经济过程和自然环境的相互作用中表现得最为明显。


The distinctive feature of this exchange is that it is governed not by the laws of mechanics, but by thermodynamics, particularly the law of entropy, according to which the quantity of free energy that can be transformed into mechanical work diminishes with time – an irreversible process culminating in “heat death.”	这种相互作用最显著的特征是其不服从力学定律，而服从热学定律，尤其是能量扩散定律，根据这条定律，能够转化为机械做功的自由能量随着时间的流逝而不断减少¾这是一个不可逆转的过程，而“热寂”是这一过程终结时不可避免的归宿。


Numerous researchers, inspired by the late Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen’s pioneering work on the relationship between economic processes and physics, tried – not very successfully – to formulate an “entropic” theory of economy and society, especially during the 1970’s.	在已故经济学家尼古拉斯·乔治斯库·洛根（Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen）对经济过程和自然环境关系探索性研究的启发下，特别是在20世纪70年代，几位研究人员曾尝试制定适用于经济和社会的“能量扩散”理论，但他们的努力似乎并没有取得多大成功。


The entropic view assumes that economic processes produce irreversible consequences because of their multiple interactions with nature.	能量扩散论认为经济过程会以多种形式与自然界相互作用，从而造成不可逆转的后果。


We draw from stocks of non-renewable natural resources (for example, oil and metal ores), and we deteriorate or modify the quality of other resources (for example, water and arable land) by imposing on them a rhythm of exploitation superior to their capacity for regeneration.	我们不断开采不可再生的自然资源储备（比如石油和金属矿藏），以超过自然资源再生能力的速度从事开采活动，导致其他资源（比如水和耕地）的质量退化或发生改变。


In fact, the exploitation of non-renewable resources frees the speed of economic growth from that of ecological renewal, aggravating the deterioration of the biosphere, including irreversible climate changes.	实际上，不可再生资源的开采使得经济发展的速度能够摆脱生态再生速度的束缚，从而加速了包括不可逆转的气候变化在内的生物环境的恶化进程。


The law of entropy reminds us that we will leave to future generations a degraded natural patrimony, probably less adequate to their needs than what we inherited.	能量扩散定律表明，我们将把已经遭到破坏的自然遗产留给我们的子孙后代，而比起先人留给我们的遗产，我们留给子孙的遗产也许更难满足他们的需求。


Unfortunately, there are no simple answers.	令人遗憾的是，这个问题没有一个简单的答案。


For the sake of what principle can we ask China and India, for example, to limit their economic dynamism so that they use smaller amounts of the planet’s natural resources?	比如，我们有权根据哪些原则来要求中国和印度压抑自己的经济活力，从而减少对全球自然资源的占用？


After all, the advanced countries’ slower growth is not the consequence of voluntary self-limitation, but of our superior standard of living – and of our incapacity to settle our own economic imbalances.	归根结底，先进国家增长速度放缓并不来源于有意识的自我控制，而是来源于更高的生活水平¾以及缺乏解决自身经济失调问题的能力。


We cannot impose an ecological rhythm on people who are poorer than we are when it is the very fact that we freed ourselves from that rhythm that made us richer.	我们无权把指定的生态节奏强加给比我们贫困的民众，因为事实是虽然我们已经放慢了速度，但曾几何时，我们也是依靠那样的速度才完成了财富的累积。


Economic contraction, or even stagnation, is not a solution for the developed countries, either, for a similar reason: it would imply that we either accept existing inequalities or impose a regime aiming at an equal redistribution of resources.	出于同样原因，经济收缩、甚至停滞，也并不是发达国家的解决方案：因为那将意味着我们或者接受已经存在的不平等，或者强制推行一种旨在实现资源平等再分配的制度。


That choice boils down to an unbearable cynicism or a totalitarian utopia.	归根结底，这两种选择背后所代表的是一种不可容忍的玩世不恭，抑或是一种极权主义的理想境界。


But, happily for us, our evolution is determined not only by entropy, but also by the accumulation of knowledge and technological progress – a process that is just as irreversible as the decrease in stocks of non-renewable resources and the degradation of environmental quality.	但令人高兴的是，能量扩散定律并不是决定我们发展的唯一要素，知识和技术进步的积累也在其中发挥了重要的作用¾和不可再生资源储量的减少及环境质量的恶化一样，知识和技术进步的进程同样也不可逆转。


Thus, the economy is entropic for resources and historical for the production, organization, and spread of knowledge, with the prospects for economic and environmental sustainability residing in the space left between those two dynamic processes: the level of growth we choose must be conditioned on a sufficient level of knowledge to ensure the system’s survival.	因此，经济发展会伴随资源的退降，但也会伴随着知识的产生、系统化以及传播，而经济和环境可持续发展的前景就存在于这两种动态过程的夹缝之中：我们所选择的增长速度必须有足够的知识水平作为保障，才能确保整个系统持续运转下去。


Yet nature, like knowledge, is a public good that needs state intervention to be “produced” in sufficient quantities.	但自然和知识一样，也是需要政府干预才能足量“出产”的公众利益。


The only way to overcome the finiteness of our world is to maintain as much space as possible between entropy and history by investing in education and research aimed at increasing renewable energies, reducing the energy intensity of our standards of living, and slowing the pace of environmental erosion.	克服世界有限性唯一的方法就是通过投资旨在增加可再生能源、降低现有能源消耗，以及减轻环境侵蚀的教育和研究来尽可能保证资源退降和技术进步之间存在足够的空间。


It is widely believed that such a strategy would be useless if the only effect is to allow others to get rich faster by opting out.	人们普遍相信：如果容忍个别国家以破坏整体利益的方式快速致富，那么整个策略将彻底失去意义。


But if that strategy is conceived as mastering two dynamic processes, overcoming the ecological constraint could be an accelerator of growth.	但如果策略的目的是管理上述两个动态过程，那么超越生态的限制将有可能促进经济的增长。


The Error of the War on Terror	反恐战争的错误


Israel’s failure to subdue Hezbollah demonstrates the many weaknesses of the war-on-terror concept.	以色列未能制服真主党表明了反恐战争这一概念的众多缺陷。


One weakness is that even if the targets are terrorists, the victims are often innocent civilians, and their suffering reinforces the terrorist cause.	其一是，即使目标就是恐怖分子，受害者也经常是无辜的平民，而他们的苦难则加强了恐怖分子运动。


In response to Hezbollah’s attacks, Israel was justified in attacking Hezbollah to protect itself against the threat of missiles on its border.	为回应真主党的袭击，以色列想要摧毁真主党并且保护其边境不受导弹袭击无疑无可厚非。


However, Israel should have taken greater care to minimize collateral damage.	但是，以色列本应更为谨慎，把附带的损失降低到最小程度。


The civilian casualties and material damage inflicted on Lebanon inflamed Muslims and world opinion against Israel and converted Hezbollah from aggressors to heroes of resistance.	加害在黎巴嫩的平民死亡以及物质损失激怒了穆斯林以及反对以色列的国际舆论，并且把真主党从入侵者转化成了抵抗运动的英雄。


Weakening Lebanon has also made it more difficult to rein in Hezbollah.	削弱黎巴嫩还使得抑制真主党更为困难。


Another weakness of the war-on-terror concept is that it relies on military action and rules out political approaches.	反恐战争这一概念的另一个缺陷是，它依赖于军事行动、排除政治途径。


Israel withdrew from Lebanon and then from Gaza unilaterally, rather than negotiating political settlements with the Lebanese government and the Palestinian authority.	以色列先后单方面从黎巴嫩和加沙地带撤军，而非与黎巴嫩政府和巴勒斯坦权力机构谈判。


The strengthening of Hezbollah and Hamas was a direct consequence of that approach.	这一行动的直接后果就是加强了真主党和哈马斯。


The war-on-terror concept stands in the way of recognizing this fact because it separates “us” from “them” and denies that our actions may shape their behavior.	反恐战争概念由于分清“我们”和“他们”，并且否认我们的行动可能会塑造他们的行为，因而，它阻碍了承认这一事实。


A third weakness is that the war-on-terror concept lumps together different political movements that use terrorist tactics.	第三个个缺陷是，反恐战争概念将不同的使用恐怖主义战术的政治运动混为一谈。


It fails to distinguish between Hamas, Hezbollah, al Qaeda or the Sunni insurrection and the Mahdi militia in Iraq.	它未能区分哈马斯、真主党、基地组织或者是在伊拉克的逊尼派起义和马赫迪民兵。


Yet all these terrorist manifestations are different and require different responses.	但是，所有这些恐怖分子的表现各不相同，需要不同的对应措施。


Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah can be treated merely as targets in the war on terror because they have deep roots in their societies; yet profound differences exist between them.	哈马斯和真主党在它们的社会中根基牢固，因此都不能简单地被作为反恐战争目标。 但是，它们之间还是有巨大的差别。


Looking back it is easy to see where Israeli policy went wrong.	回顾历史就不难看出为什么以色列的政策失灵。


When Mahmoud Abbas was elected president of the Palestinian Authority, Israel should have gone out of its way to strengthen him and his reformist team.	当阿巴斯当选巴勒斯坦权力机构主席以来，以色列本应努力加强他和他的改革派的地位。


When Israel withdrew from Gaza the former head of the World Bank, James Wolfensohn, negotiated a six-point plan on behalf of the Quartet for the Middle East (Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations).	当以色列从加沙撤军时，世界银行前总裁沃尔福森代表中东问题四方（即俄国、美国、欧盟以及联合国）谈判达成了一项六点方案。


It included opening crossings between Gaza and the West Bank, an airport and seaport in Gaza, opening the border with Egypt, and transferring the greenhouses abandoned by Israeli settlers into Arab hands.	这一方案包括开放加沙和西岸的道口，在加沙建立港口和机场，开放与埃及的边界以及把以色列定居者遗弃的温室转交给阿拉伯人。


None of the six points was implemented.	上述六点根本没有执行。


This contributed to Hamas’s electoral victory.	这也就造成了哈马斯在选举中获胜。


The Bush administration, having pushed Israel to allow the Palestinians to hold elections, then backed Israel’s refusal to deal with a Hamas government.	布什政府曾经推动以色列举行选举，随后又支持以色列拒绝与哈马斯政府打交道。


The effect was to impose further hardship on the Palestinians.	结果就是给巴勒斯坦人造成进一步的苦难。


Nevertheless, Abbas was able to forge an agreement with the political arm of Hamas for the formation of a unity government.	但是，阿巴斯还是与哈马斯的政治力量达成协议，建立一个联合政府。


It was to foil this agreement that the military branch of Hamas, run from Damascus, engaged in the provocation that brought a heavy handed response from Israel—which in turn incited Hezbollah to further provocation, opening a second front.	受到大马士革操纵的哈马斯军事组织为了破坏这一协议才进行挑衅，引发了以色列的强烈反应。 这一事件进而挑起真主党的进一步挑衅，打开了第二条战线。


That is how extremists play off against each other to destroy any chance of political progress.	这就是极端分子相互争斗来破坏任何政治进展的伎俩。


Israel has been a participant in this game and President Bush bought into this flawed policy, uncritically supporting Israel.	以色列是这一游戏的参加者，而布什总统则接受了这一存有缺陷的政策，毫无保留地支持以色列。


Events have shown that this policy leads to an escalation of violence.	过去的事件表明，这一政策导致暴力升级。


The process has advanced to the point where Israel’s unquestioned military superiority is no longer sufficient to overcome the negative consequences of its policy.	这一进程已经发展到了这一一个阶段，也就是，以色列无可比拟的军事优势不再足以克服这一政策的负面后果。


Israel is now more endangered in its existence than it was at the time of the Oslo Agreement.	以色列与奥斯陆协议时代相比，其生存处境更为困难。


Similarly, the US has become less safe since President Bush declared war on terror.	同样，自从布什总统向恐怖主义宣战以来，美国变得更为不安全。


The time has come to realize that today’s policies are counterproductive.	现��已经到了认识到当今政策适得其反的时候了。


There will be no end to the vicious circle of escalating violence without a political settlement of the Palestine question.	没有巴勒斯坦问题的政治解决，就不会终结不断加剧的暴力恶性循环。


In fact, the prospects for engaging in negotiations are better now than they were a few months ago.	实际上，参加谈判的前景要比几个月前更为有利。


Israelis must realize that a military deterrent is not sufficient on its own.	以色列必须认识到军事威摄自身并不足够。


And Arabs, having redeemed themselves on the battlefield, may be more willing to entertain a compromise.	而阿拉伯人在战场上解救了自己，可能会更愿意接受妥协。


Strong voices argue that Israel must never negotiate from a position of weakness.	有人大声疾呼以色列永远不能从弱者的地位出发来进行谈判。


They are wrong.	此言差矣。


Israel’s position is liable to become weaker the longer it persists on its present course.	以色列坚持其当前路线越久，其地位就越发可能变得弱小。


Similarly Hezbollah, having tasted the sense but not the reality of victory (and egged on by Syria and Iran) may prove recalcitrant.	同样，真主党已经感受到了胜利的滋味，但还不是胜利的现实（叙利亚和伊朗对此一直虎视眈眈）。 他们可能更为顽固。


But that is where the difference between Hezbollah and Hamas comes into play.	但是，这就是真主党和哈马斯的不同之处。


The people of Palestine yearn for peace and relief from suffering.	巴勒斯坦人民渴望和平以及从受难中解脱出来。


The political--as distinct from the military-- wing of Hamas must be responsive to their desires.	哈马斯的政治组织与其军事组织不同，必定对人民的渴求有所反应。


It is not too late for Israel to encourage and deal with an Abbas led Palestinian unity government as the first step toward a better balanced approach.	以色列鼓励阿巴斯领导的巴勒斯坦联合政府并与之打交道，是更为平衡的解决手段的第一步。


Given how strong the U.S.-Israeli relationship is, it would help Israel achieve its own legitimate aims if the U.S. government were not blinded by the war-on-terror concept.	现在缺少的是一个不受反恐战争概念所蒙蔽的美国政府。


The Ethanol Hunger	乙醇饥渴症


WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA – Food prices have in many cases surpassed the peak levels reached in July 2008.	发自印地安纳州西拉法叶——当今的食品价格已经在许多方面超越了2008年8月的最高点。


At that time, food-price increases were attributed to growing global demand for food commodities, a major decline in the value of the US dollar, crop failures in some parts of the world, and biofuels.	如果说当年的价格上涨主要源自于全球食品商品需求不断上升，美元币值大幅下降，世界某些地区粮食减产以及生物能源的影响。


But what is driving the surge in prices today?	那么最近这轮食品价格上涨的推手又是什么呢？


I believe that the key factors now are somewhat different from those that drove up food prices in 2008.	笔者认为驱动本轮上涨的关键因素与2008年的那些有所不同。


Growth in global demand for food and feed commodities is still a major part of the story, as are biofuels.	全球对于食品和饲料的需求依然是其重要组成部分，生物能源的因素也依然存在。


But the short- and long-term implications are quite different.	但两次上涨的短期和长期含义则大不相同。


As developing countries become better off, one of the first things that happens is so-called “dietary transition.”	随着发展中国家逐渐走向富裕，首先发生的情况就是所谓的“饮食方式转变”。


With more income at their disposal, people begin to consume more of their food basket in the form of animal products.	在人们可支配收入不断增加的情况下，动物类产品的消费也逐步上升。


Producing these animal products requires significantly more agricultural resources than a predominantly plant-based diet.	而相对于以植物为主的饮食方式，动物类产品的生产需要占用更加巨大的农业资源。


So, as incomes grow, demand for food products grows even faster.	因此随着收入增加，对食品的需求增加得更加迅速。


Both population growth and dietary transition contribute to faster demand growth and higher food prices.	人口增长和饮食方式转变这两大因素都推动了更快的需求增长和更高的食品价格。


Biofuels policies in the US and the European Union have led to the creation of biofuels industries with significant output capacity – mainly ethanol in the US and biodiesel in the EU.	美国和欧盟的生物能源政策都催生了一个拥有巨大产能的生物能源工业——在美国主要是乙醇，而欧盟则以生物柴油为主。


In the US, government policy mandates 48 billion liters of ethanol in 2011. Production capacity already exceeds that level.	美国政府政策批准在2011年生产480亿升乙醇，而产能则早已超过了这一水平。


Since this quantity is required by the government to be blended with gasoline, regardless of the price of ethanol, corn, or gasoline, the demand that it creates for corn is not at all responsive to the price of corn.	由于这一产量是由政府下达作汽油勾兑使用，并不以乙醇，玉米和汽油价格为转移，由此产生的对玉米的需求也对玉米价格不甚敏感。


In economic terms, such demand is highly “inelastic”: the mandate must be met at any price.	用经济学来解释的话，这一需求是高度“非弹性的”：无论价格如何，该政策都必须接受。


That is the situation in which we now find ourselves, at least in the short run.	这就是我们目前（至少在短期内）所处的状况。


The added inflexibility (or inelasticity) amplifies the price response to a real or perceived crop shortfall either in the US or elsewhere.	所增加的刚性（或者非弹性）放大了对美国或者世界其他地区实际或者预计供求差距的价格反映。


In addition, the fact that nearly 40% of the US corn crop is being used for ethanol, up from around 5% a few years ago, means that corn prices must be higher to meet the feed, export, and ethanol demands for corn.	此外目前美国玉米产量的40%都已经用作提炼乙醇，而几年前这一比例还仅有5%左右，这意味着玉米价格必须提高以应对市场对食品，出口和乙醇生产的需求。


The bottom line is that the current version of US biofuels policy, with its fixed requirement for blending, leads to a greater price response in the event of a crop shortfall – in the short run.	归根结底，当前这种规定一定勾兑量的美国生物能源政策导致了短期内对供求差距的过度价格反映。


We saw this in 2008, and are now seeing it again.	我们已经在2008年见证了这一点，如今又仿佛昨日重现了。


But the 2011 surge appears to be rooted in broader commodity scarcity than before.	但2011这场上涨根源于比以往更加广泛的商品供应不足。


In the first half of 2008, commodity prices moved up quickly – and plummeted just as fast in the second half of the year.	在2008年上半年，商品价格迅速上升——在下半年又以同样的速度下跌。


There may well have been speculative behavior that contributed to the rapid swing.	而且显然有投机行为促成了这样的迅速波动。


Even with normal crop production around the world, we will end this year with stocks-to-use ratios near historic lows.	即便今年的全球粮食生产维持正常，我们依旧会在年末面对历史上最低的库存使用比率。


Stocks-to-use ratios are a primary driver of commodity prices, because they give us an indication of the cushion that we have for shortfalls somewhere in the world. The ratio tells us essentially how many months of stocks we have, and today they are around 15% for some key commodities – meaning two months of stocks.	这一比率是商品价格的主要驱动因素，因为它显示出如果在全球某处出现短缺的话我们究竟能有多大的缓冲能力，并告诉我们究竟还剩下能维持多少个月的库存，而如今某些关键商品的比率为15%——意味着我们只有两个月的库存。


What about the long run?	那么长期来说又是什么情况呢？


With several years to adjust, we would expect a powerful supply-side response to higher commodity prices now prevailing all over the world.	由于有多年的空间进行调整，我们预期对目前高涨的商品价格将会有一个有力的供应端回应。


In many regions around the world, crop yields are only a fraction of US levels – even in agricultural zones with similar climate, soils, and other production conditions.	在世界上的许多地区，粮食产量只能达到美国的部分水平——即便是那些拥有相同气候，土壤和其他生产要素的农业区。


In the US, it is common to see a gap of around 20% between test plots and actual yields in the same area.	在美国，在实验产量和实际产量之间往往会出现20%的差异。


In many other regions, these gaps are 40-60%.	而在其他地区，这一差异会达到40~60%。


The bottom line is that there is huge potential to increase production in many parts of Eastern Europe, Africa, and South America.	原因就是在东欧，非洲和南美地区的土地都拥有巨大的增产潜力。


To the extent that higher commodity prices benefit farmers in these regions, they will respond by increasing their production, which will eventually reduce scarcity, increase stocks-to-use ratios, and attenuate the higher prices.	随着高粮价使得这些地区的农民获得收益，他们将提高产量作为回应，也最终会缩小供求缺口并增加库存使用比率。


In fact, to the extent that developing countries permit higher prices to go to their farmers, the result could be a significant stimulus to economic growth in rural regions of developing countries – where most of the world’s poor live.	事实上，随着发展中国家容许农民提高粮食价格，这将对农村地区——也是世界上大多数贫困人口的居住地——的经济发展产生重大推动作用。


One problem is that developing countries often attempt to isolate their domestic markets from world prices, particularly price increases, in order to protect their more politically powerful urban citizens.	但问题就是发展中国家经常试图将自己的本地市场与国际市场隔绝开来——尤其是在价格上涨之时——以保护政治影响力更大的城市居民。


This policy can stymie rural development and diminish poverty alleviation.	这一政策也将阻挠农村地区的发展以及脱贫的实现。


The short- and long-term stories are simplifications, but they nonetheless convey the essence of some critical drivers of price changes.	上面讨论的短期和长期状况虽然都被简化了，但他们无一例外地体现了价格变动中某些关键驱动力的本质。


America’s biofuels policies inevitably lead to larger price responses to supply shocks in the short run.	美国的生物能源政策无可避免地导致了对短期供应震荡的更大幅度价格反映。


In the long run, the higher prices that result could become an engine of economic development in the world’s poor rural regions.	但在长期来说，更高的食品价格将成为推动全球贫困农村地区经济发展的引擎。


That distinction could make a huge difference to millions of people.	而这一差别将对数百万人的生活造成巨大的影响。


The Ethics of “Biosecurity”	“生物安全”的伦理性


An ominous new word has crept into the life sciences and biomedical research: “biosecurity.”	一个不祥的新词已经悄悄潜入生命科学和生物制药研究：“生物安全”（biosecirity）。


The term reflects a growing awareness that rapid developments in these fields offer the potential for great benefits, but that the knowledge, tools, and techniques that enable scientific advances also can be misused to cause deliberate harm.	这个词反映出人们已经日渐意识到，生命科学领域和生物制药领域的飞速进步有可能给人类带来巨大的福利，但使科学进步成为可能的那些知识、工具、技术也可能被滥用，造成故意伤害。


Any effort to address this “dual use” dilemma must ultimately be international, since biotechnology research is a genuinely global enterprise.	生物技术研究是一项真正的全球事业，所以任何解决这一“二元应用”困境的努力最终都必须是国际性的。


The international scientific community has a key role to play in ensuring that efforts to manage the risks improve security and strengthen international collaboration to ensure non- maleficent use of scientific advances.	在确保风险管理的种种努力能增强安全，加强国际协作以确保非恶意使用科学进步方面，国际科学界将发挥重要作用。


Professor Ronald Atlas of the University of Louisville and I recently presented a proposed  Code of Ethics for the Life Sciences in the journal  Science .	最近，我和路易斯维尔大学的罗纳德·阿特拉斯教授一起向《科学》杂志递交了一份题为《生命科学的伦理规范》的提案。


Our proposal what we need for a code and for its contents have both met with strongly conflicting views.	我们提出的需要一种规范及其内容的要求，遇到了各种互相激烈冲突的观点的冲击。


The scientific community increasingly recognizes that science itself is not a value-free activity and, therefore, the choice of what research to undertake and how to undertake it must be governed by ethical principles.	科学界日益认识到科学本身不是不受价值控制的活动，因此，选择从事何种研究，如何从事一定要服从于伦理原则。 但是，还是有一群科学家反对这一观念。


But there is still a nucleus of scientists who oppose that concept, arguing that there must be no restrictions on the search for new knowledge, and that ethical principles only become relevant in the application of that knowledge.	他们争辩说绝对不应该限制对新知识的研究，只有在对该知识进行应用时，伦理原则才相关。


In our  Science article, we speculated on scientists’ reasons for holding such a view.	在我们发表在《科学》上的这篇文章中，我们对科学家为什么会有这样一种观点进行了思考。


But, as we noted, “even those who question the value of a code agree that research in the life sciences, including biodefense research, must be conducted in a safe and ethical manner.”	但是，正如我们指出的一样，“即使那些质疑规范价值的人也同意在生命科学（包括生物防务研究）领域的研究，必须以安全、道德的方式进行。


Bodies speaking out publicly about this need include the General Assembly of the World Medical Association, the British Medical Association, the US National Research Council, the British Parliament, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders.	”公开公布这种需要的团体包括世界医药协会大会，英国医学协会，美国国家研究委员会，英国议会及亚太经济合作组织（APEC）的领导者。


A code of ethics is needed because the power of science to result in harm, if it is not well governed, has grown vastly.	需要一套伦理规范，是因为如果管理不善，科学就会带来危害，而科学的这种力量已经有了巨大增长。


Society has entrusted scientists and scientific institutions to show respect for life, in particular human life.	社会委托科学家和科研机构来展示我们对生命，尤其是人类生命的敬畏。


Safeguards are needed to ensure fulfillment of that trust, in particular, to ensure that science is not used in the cause of bioterrorism or biowarfare.	我们需要防护措施来确保他们能完成我们的委托，尤其要确保科学不会被用于生物恐怖主义和生物战争。


A code of ethics offers several benefits. It would underscore the importance of ethics reviews of proposed scientific research and monitoring of ongoing research, especially research involving humans or animals as subjects.	为科学制定一套伦理规范可以给我们带来几大好处：可强调对提议的科学研究进行审核和对现行研究（尤其是以人类或动物为主题的研究）进行监管的重要性。


It can also establish a basic presumption of scientific openness and transparency, while allowing for exceptions when there is a real risk that scientific knowledge could be used to cause serious harm.	也可建立一套科学公开透明的基本推定，同时在有真正风险时，在科学知识可能被用来造成严重伤害时，考虑到意外情况的发生。


Moreover, a code of ethics could help protect “whistle blowers” who bring ethical breaches to the attention of the relevant authorities or the public.	此外，伦理规范还有助于保护“投诉者”，是这些投诉者让有关当局或公众注意到侵犯伦理规范的行为。


Finally, it could allow for conscientious objection to participation in certain research.	最后，这样也能为对那些诚恳反对参与某些研究的意见留出余地。


In short, a code can help to embed ethics in all aspects of scientific research from its inception.	简而言之，从初期开始，这套规范就有助于将道德纳入科学研究的方方面面。


Although no consensus has yet emerged on a code of ethics, there is wide agreement among scientists that a robust public health system is an essential safeguard against biological threats, whether intentional or unintentional.	尽管现在大家还没有就伦理规范达成一致意见，但很多科学家都同意积极的公共卫生系统是防止生物威胁（不管这种威胁是有意造成的，还是无意造成的）最重要的防卫措施。


Security and public health concerns now overlap, whereas traditionally they had been separate areas that elicited different kinds of policy responses.	传统上，安全问题和公共卫生问题分属不同领域，引发的政策反应也各不相同。 但现在，这两种问题却互相重合。


Strengthening the response to naturally occurring infectious diseases or poisoning is needed to protect against the deliberate misuse of science to spread disease or poison.	要防止故意滥用科学来传播疾病或投毒，需要强化对自然发生的传染病和中毒事件的应对力度。


In short, promoting public health, biosafety, and biosecurity, on the one hand, and protecting against bioterrorism, on the other, are linked, complementary activities.	总之，一方面要加强公共卫生、生物安全与生物安全（biosecurity），另一方面要防止生物恐怖主义。 这两类行动相互关联，互为补充。


But contemplating potential new bioweapons raises deeply worrying possibilities that return us to the problem of how to ensure ethics in scientific research.	但是，对潜在的新型生物武器的思考，引发了让人非常担心的可能性，使我们又回到了在科学研究中如何确保伦理不受侵犯的问题。


For instance, “synthetic biology” involves the creation of living material from its DNA components, so that we can re-engineer life in the manner of our choosing.	比如，“综合生物学”包括从活体的DNA组分中创造活体，因此我们能够自由地重新设计生命。


The technology making this possible will most likely become common within the next two years at a substantially reduced cost.	在未来两年里，使这一创造成为可能的技术就将普及，成本也会大大降低。


Safeguards such as a moratorium on such developments or registering the equipment needed to implement them should be considered.	我们应该考虑采取一些防护措施，如要求暂停这种开发或对需要的相关仪器进行登记等。


There are ancient taboos on the use of “poison or plague” as weapons or for warfare, and doing so has long been stigmatized in many cultures and prohibited by customary international law and international treaties.	对在战争中以“毒药或瘟疫”为武器的禁忌，自古有之。 在很多文化中，使用这些武器一直被认为是可耻之事，并为国际习惯法和国际条约所禁止。


The taboo is the companion to the sacred: that which we regard as sacred we protect with taboos.	禁忌与神圣同在：我们认为神圣的东西，则以禁忌保护之。


We have lost both concepts in relation to much conduct in our contemporary world, but we urgently need to re-find them in relation to the new possibilities opened up by the life sciences if we are to continue to respect all life, especially human life.	当今世界，在很多行为中，我们都失去了“神圣”和“禁忌”这两个概念。 在生命科学为我们提供的各种崭新的可能性面前，要想保持对所有生命，尤其是人类生命的敬畏，我们迫切需要重新找回这两个概念。


The challenge is no less than to prevent the life sciences from becoming the death sciences.	与防止生命科学变成死亡科学相比，这一挑战的重要性也丝毫不差。


That will require complex, multiple, varied, and integrated responses from a very wide variety of sources at individual, institutional, societal, and global levels.	挑战需要来自各方面，如个人、机构、社会以至全球的各种各样综合的、多元化的协调反应。


Above all, it will require integrity, honesty, trust, courage, and sometimes restraint.	最重要的事，这一挑战要求我们拥有正直、诚实的品格，要求我们互相信任、找到勇气，但有时也需要有所制约。


This is no small order at the level of international relations and cooperation.	在国际关系和合作上，这些都绝非易事。


The Ethics of Citizenship Tests	入籍考试的道德问题


PRINCETON – Can citizenship really be tested?	普林斯顿——是否具备入籍资格真能通过考试来决定吗？


An increasing number of countries – especially, but not only, in Europe – seem to think so.	越来越多的国家，特别是欧洲国家，似乎认为这个命题是成立的。


Over the last decade, tests and exams for immigrants have proliferated – but so have controversies about what they may legitimately ask.	过去十年中，各种各样的移民测试和考试迅速发展壮大——而同时应该考核哪些问题也引发了越来越大的争议。


Recently, the revelation that the “Life in the UK” test tries to instill respect for the practice of queuing – standing in line, that is – caused as much ridicule as indignation.	不久前刚刚披露的“英伦生活”测试试图将排队的习惯灌输给移民，这样做引来了很多嘲笑和愤怒。


The British minister responsible for the test justified the idea by claiming that “the simple act of taking one’s turn is one of the things that holds our country together.	负责考试事务的英国内阁大臣辩解道“遵守秩序排队的行为虽然简单，但却是我们这个国家团结的保障。


It is very important that newcomers take their place in queues whether it is for a bus or a cup of tea.”	新移民必须学会排队，无论是坐公交车还是买杯茶，这一点非常重要。


While this might sound like an excerpt from a Monty Python sketch, it raises an important issue: should there be limits as to what prospective citizens are tested for?	”这听上去简直像是出自蟒蛇喜剧团的台词，但却提出了一个重要问题：准公民在接受测试的时候究竟有没有限度？


Can testing become counter-productive?	测试会不会起反作用？


Critics of the spreading practice of citizenship testing certainly think so; in fact, they go so far as to lament the rise of a new “repressive liberalism” – Western states’ efforts to achieve democratic and liberal ends with increasingly illiberal means.	这无疑是批评入籍测试日益泛滥的人们的想法，实际上，这些人甚至为“镇压自由主义”风潮的崛起感到痛惜——西方国家试图用越来越有悖于自由的手段来实现民主和自由的目标。


Making “integration courses” and language instruction compulsory, prohibiting headscarves in schools, as in France, or restricting the rights of immigrants to marry foreigners, as in Denmark, are just some instances of coercive measures adopted in the name of supposedly universal liberal values.	强制移民学习“文化融合课”和语言课，像法国那样禁止在学校里佩戴头巾，或者像丹麦那样限制移民与外国人结婚的权利只是以所谓的“普遍自由价值观”之名行强迫之实的几个例子。


Such measures have the appearance of a (seemingly self-contradictory) program to force men and women to be free.	如此这般的措施似乎像是一个强迫人们接受自由的计划（这样的计划似乎有些自我矛盾）。


Citizenship tests are an integral part of this program; and, in the eyes of critics, they resemble “loyalty oaths” and other intolerant measures traditionally associated with the anti-communist witch-hunts of McCarthyism in 1950’s America.	入籍测试是这一计划的组成部分，而且在批评者们眼中，入籍测试像极了20世纪50年代美国麦卡锡主义时期对共产党人的政治迫害，以及与之相关的“效忠宣誓”和其他令人无法容忍的措施。


But do countries somehow automatically turn illiberal just because they make certain measures mandatory?	可是难道国家只要强制实施某些措施就真的不自由了吗？


If that were true, “progressive legislation” would inevitably be a contradiction in terms.	如果上述命题成立，那么“渐进立法”就不可避免会成为一个矛盾的词语。


The real question is whether states purposefully target or even exclude certain groups – while ostensibly applying universal standards.	真正的问题在于国家在表面实行同样标准的同时，是否有意针对某些团体甚至将其排除在外？


Think, for example, of a German (oral) test which was to apply only to immigrants from states belonging to the Organization of the Islamic Conference (the test in question was later withdrawn), and which asked, among other things, the applicant’s opinion about the fact that in Germany homosexuals hold high public office.	比如某种只针对伊斯兰会议组织国家移民的德国（口语）测试（这项测试后来被取消），测试中除了提问其他问题，还询问申请人如何看待同性恋者在德国担任要职。


Similar tendencies appeared in the Netherlands, which was once committed to multiculturalism, but more recently has sought to confront would-be citizens with images of men kissing and of bare-breasted women emerging from the North Sea – presumably all to get across the point that a true Dutch citizen had better be tolerant.	同样的势头也出现在荷兰，这个国家曾经坚定地信奉多元文化主义政策，但不久前却试图让申请入籍的准公民观看男人之间接吻和坦胸露乳的女人从北海里走上来的照片——他们这样做的本意都是要传达这样一个信息：真正的荷兰人最好具有包容心。


It is clearly helpful for immigrants to get hints about how to navigate daily life practically – such as norms about standing in line.	让移民们从日常生活中自然地了解一种生活方式显然更为有益，比方说排队的规则。


But this kind of local knowledge should not be subject to testing.	但诸如此类的地域性知识不应被纳入测试。


Most people acquire survival skills – if not more sophisticated forms of savoir-faire – informally, as a quick glance at the immigration experience in the United States demonstrates.	纵览美国移民的历史能够证明，多数人都是通过非正式渠道获取生存技能，以及更高级的社交和处事能力。


They will also come to get the point of more informal social norms – against homophobia, for instance.	他们也会逐渐意识到一些非正式的社会准则，比如反对异性恋沙文主义。


The lesson is that national governments should not test the attitudes of immigrants to moral and cultural questions that remain controversial even among established members of the host country.	上述实例给我们的启示是，国家政府不应在本国现有公民仍然存在分歧的情况下，对移民测试某些道德和文化问题。


It would be hypocritical, for example, to pretend that everyone in Western liberal democracies is enthusiastic about gay people or nudists – what matters is that their rights be respected, not that everyone like them.	比方说，假装西方自由民主社会里的每个人都热衷于同性恋或裸体主义者就是一种虚伪——重要的是他们的权利得到尊重，而不是强求他们得到所有人的喜爱。


Tests should communicate lessons about rights and democracy, that is, politics – not about lifestyles or the supposed core content of a “national culture” (on which established members of a host country themselves would probably be hard pressed to reach consensus).	考试所传递的应当是权利和民主的理念，也可以叫做政治理念，���不是用来灌输生活方式或所谓“民族文化”的核心内容（在这些问题上，即便东道国现有的公民恐怕也很难达成一致）。


Of course, it is true that birthright citizens live their lives – and retain their citizenship – without ever being tested on the basics of their political systems.	当然，拥有与生俱来权利的公民从来没有接受过政治制度方面的测试也能照样生活并拥有国籍，这也是无可争议的事实。


But it is a reasonable expectation – often legitimately reinforced through civic education for all children – that citizens know how to participate in public affairs, and especially that they know what their and others’ rights are.	但我们有理由要求公民了解如何参与公共生活，特别是了解自己和他人的权利，这种要求通常是通过对所有儿童的公民教育所体现的。


So, citizenship tests – rather than being repressive – can actually be empowering, if they make immigrants aware of rights and possibilities for participation.	这样一来，入籍测试不仅不是专制，甚至还可以赋予一种权力，前提是移民们通过测试了解到参与的权利和机遇。


They are akin to language requirements – except that the language here is a civic, not a national one, which in the best case allows new citizens to voice their concerns with perfect political grammar.	这与语言规定有些类似，不同之处在于这里谈论的是公民而不是国家语言，这种语言在理想情况下能让新公民用完美的政治语言表达自己的忧虑。


Tests might also make the passage to citizenship meaningful, a ritual similar to the solemn swearing of an oath of allegiance, which can be integrated as a major event into the story of one’s life (to be sure, some will always dismiss such ceremonies as political kitsch).	测试还能让入籍过程显得更有意义，这是一种类似于效忠誓言的庄严宣誓，这样的场合会成为入籍者终生难忘的重大事件（当然，有些人总会认为这样的仪式在政治上俗不可耐。 ）


What these kinds of exams cannot do – and should not attempt to do – is test people’s political convictions.	此类考试不能——也不应尝试的是——测试人们的政治信仰。


For one thing, such convictions can always be faked by those determined to dissimulate.	一方面这样的信仰总能被那些刻意掩饰的人所伪装。


At the same time, most would-be citizens will probably feel alienated from a state that suspects political danger emanating from newcomers and consistently sends a message of distrust.	另一方面，多数准公民们可能会觉得难以同一个怀疑新移民会带来政治危险并不断发出不信任信号的国家亲近。


In the end, citizenship exams, rather than really being “tests” in any meaningful sense at all, are tools for communication.	归根结底，入籍考试与其说是一种真正意义上的“考试”，还不如说是一种交流沟通的工具。


And every country should think very carefully about what it wishes to communicate about itself.	每个国家都应该认真思考究竟想和新移民交流些什么问题。


The Ethics of Eating	饮食的伦理


Global meat consumption is predicted to double by 2020.	全球肉类消费量预计到2020年将增加一倍。


Yet in Europe and North America, there is growing concern about the ethics of the way meat and eggs are produced.	然而，在欧洲和南美，人们越来越担心肉蛋生产方式中的伦理问题。


The consumption of veal has fallen sharply since it became widely known that to produce so-called “white” – actually pale pink – veal, newborn calves are separated from their mothers, deliberately made anemic, denied roughage, and kept in stalls so narrow that they cannot walk or turn around.	为了生产所谓的“白色”实际上是淡粉色的小牛肉，饲养场将新生小牛与母牛分开，故意使之贫血，不饲喂粗饲料，圈养在狭窄的牛圈里，无法行走或转身。 大众知道这一情况后，小牛肉的消费量锐减。


In Europe, mad cow disease shocked many people, not only because it shattered beef’s image as a safe and healthy food, but also because they learned that the disease was caused by feeding cattle the brains and nerve tissue of sheep.	在欧洲，疯牛病之所以让许多人震惊，不仅仅是因为它打破了牛肉作为一种安全健康食品的形象，而且因为人们知道了这种病的根源是给牛饲喂羊的脑浆和神经组织。


People who naively believed that cows ate grass discovered that beef cattle in feed lots may be fed anything from corn to fish meal, chicken litter (complete with chicken droppings), and slaughterhouse waste.	有些人天真地相信牛吃的是草，现在才发现饲喂肉牛的食品种类繁多，从谷物到鱼肉、养鸡场的垃圾稻草（包括鸡的排泻物）以及屠宰场的下脚料。


Concern about how we treat farm animals is far from being limited to the small percentage of people who are vegetarians or even vegans – eating no animal products at all.	对畜牧动物所受待遇表示担忧的人绝不仅限于数量不多的素食者或严格素食主义者，也就是不吃一点动物产品的人。


Despite strong ethical arguments for vegetarianism, it is not yet a mainstream position.	尽管社会对素食主义存在强烈的伦理争议，素食主义还没有成为社会主流。


More common is the view that we are justified in eating meat, as long as the animals have a decent life before they are killed.	更为普遍的观点是，只要动物在宰杀之前可以过一种体面的生活，我们可以吃肉。


The problem, as Jim Mason and I describe in our recent book, The Way We Eat, is that industrial agriculture denies animals even a minimally decent life.	这个问题的根源，正如Jim Mason和我在新近出版著作《我们的饮食方式》中所描绘的那样，在于工业化的农业拒绝给予动物一种甚至是最低水平的体面生活。


Tens of billions of chickens produced today never go outdoors.	我们今天生产的数百亿只肉用鸡从来没有过户外活动。


They are bred to have voracious appetites and gain weight as fast as possible, then reared in sheds that can hold more than 20,000 birds.	它们先是被填喂出贪吃的大胃口，以便尽快增加体重，然后被放置在可容纳20,000只鸡的鸡棚中继续饲养。


The level of ammonia in the air from their accumulated droppings stings the eye and hurts the lungs.	鸡棚中积聚的排泻物散发出大量的氨，刺激眼睛，伤害肺脏。


Slaughtered at only 45 days old, their immature bones can hardly bear the weight of their bodies.	这些鸡出生45天后就将被宰杀，骨胳还来不及充分发育，几乎无法承担自身的重量。


Some collapse and, unable to reach food or water, soon die, their fate irrelevant to the economics of the enterprise as a whole.	一些病倒了，无法够到食物和水，很快就会死去。 而它们的命运并不影响饲养企业的整体经济情况。


Conditions are, if anything, even worse for laying hens crammed into wire cages so small that even if there were just one per cage, she would be unable to stretch her wings.	蛋鸡的待遇，如果还算待遇的话，更加糟糕。 它们被圈在极其狭小的铁丝网笼中，即使是每个笼子只有一只鸡，也无法伸展翅膀。


But there are usually at least four hens per cage, and often more.	而通常每个笼子至少会有四只蛋鸡，大多数情况下更多。


Under such crowded conditions, the more dominant, aggressive birds are likely to peck to death the weaker hens in the cage.	在这种拥挤的条件下，强壮好斗的鸡会将笼中体弱温顺的鸡啄死。 为了避免出现这种情况，养鸡人就用烧红的刀片将所有鸡的喙都烙去一截。


To prevent this, producers sear off all birds’ beaks with a hot blade.	母鸡的喙布满了神经组织。


A hen’s beak is full of nerve tissue – it is, after all, her principal means of relating to her environment – but no anesthetic or analgesic is used to relieve the pain.	毕竟，喙是鸡感知外界环境的主要工具。 但是在此过程中既没有采取麻醉也没有使用止痛药来减轻它们的疼痛。


Pigs may be the most intelligent and sensitive of the animals that we commonly eat.	在我们通常食用的动物中，猪可能最聪明、最敏感。


When foraging in a rural village, they can exercise that intelligence and explore their varied environment.	在农村，它们在寻找食物的过程中可以运用自己的智力，探寻所处的各种环境。


Before they give birth, sows use straw or leaves and twigs to build a comfortable and safe nest in which to nurse their litter.	母猪在生小猪之前会用稻草或树叶和树枝建一个安全舒适的窝以便养育自己的后代。


But in today’s factory farms, pregnant sows are kept in crates so narrow that they cannot turn around, or even walk more than a step forward or backward.	但是在今天的工厂化农场中，怀孕的母猪被圈在狭窄的板条箱中，既无法转身，更无法向前或向后多移动一步。


They lie on bare concrete without straw or any other form of bedding.	它们躺在光秃秃的水泥地上，既没有稻草也没有其它任何铺垫物。


The piglets are taken from the sow as soon as possible, so that she can be made pregnant again, but they never leave the shed until they are taken to slaughter.	为了母猪能够再次受孕，小猪出生后会在最短的时间内被带走，在被宰杀之前，他们没有机会走出饲养棚一步。


Defenders of these production methods argue that they are a regrettable but necessary response to a growing population’s demand for food.	赞成这种生产方式的人辩护说，这是应对人类日益增长的食物需求的一种方式，虽然令人遗憾，但却必不可少。


On the contrary, when we confine animals in factory farms, we have to grow food for them.	恰恰相反，当我们把动物限制在工厂化农场中时，我们��必须为它们生产食物。


The animals burn up most of that food’s energy just to breathe and keep their bodies warm, so we end up with a small fraction – usually no more than one-third and sometimes as little as one-tenth – of the food value that we feed them.	只是呼吸和保持体温，这些动物就将它们所吃食物的能量消耗大半，因此我们最后只得到一小部分的能量，通常不超过饲喂食物能量的三分之一，有时甚至只有十分之一。


By contrast, cows grazing on pasture eat food that we cannot digest, which means that they add to the amount of food available to us.	与之相对照，在牧场放牧饲养的牛吃的是我们无法消化的食物，这就意味着增加了我们可用的食物数量。


It is tragic that countries like China and India, as they become more prosperous, are copying Western methods and putting animals in huge industrial farms to supply more meat and eggs for their growing middle classes.	像中国和印度这些国家在走向繁荣的过程中照抄西方的模式，将动物放在工业化农场中，以便为日益增多的中产阶级提供更多的肉和蛋，这无异于一场悲剧。


If this continues, the result will be animal suffering on an even greater scale than now exists in the West, as well as more environmental damage and a rise in heart disease and cancers of the digestive system.	如果这种状况持续发展下去，更多国家的动物将会遭受痛苦，不会像现在这样仅限于西方国家，环境会更加恶化，心脏病和消化系统癌症将会上升。


It will also be grossly inefficient.	同时，效率也将非常低下。


As consumers, we have the power – and the moral obligation – to refuse to support farming methods that are cruel to animals and bad for us.	作为消费者，我们有能力并且也有道德责任拒绝支持这种对动物残酷而且对我们有害的养殖方式。


The Ethiopia Card	埃塞俄比亚的外交作用


BRUSSELS – Two decades ago, Ethiopia was a Cold War battlefield.	比利时——20年前，埃塞俄比亚还是冷战的角力场。


On the ideological map of the world, it was Soviet territory, a land of famine, dictatorship, and civil war.	在世界意识形态地图上，这里是属于苏联的领土，到处可以看到饥荒、独裁和内战的烽火。


But, with the overthrow of Mengistu Haile Mariam’s Marxist-Leninist dictatorship in 1991, Ethiopia began to transform itself.	但在1991年门格斯图·海尔·马里亚姆的马列主义独裁政权被推翻后，埃塞俄比亚开始发生变化。


Today, it ranks among the five fastest-growing economies in the world, and is a bastion of regional stability.	今天，它跻身世界五大发展最快经济体的行列，同时也成为地区稳定的有力捍卫者。


That stability matters, because the Horn of Africa is becoming a security headache once again.	局势的稳定至关重要，因为非洲之角已经再次成为令人头痛的安全隐患。


If the region is to be stabilized, Ethiopia will need to play a key part.	要想稳定非洲局势，埃塞俄比亚必需发挥重要作用。


Indeed, it should be considered an indispensable strategic partner for those in the international community who want to prevent the entirety of East Africa from slipping into chaos.	事实上，它应该成为国际社会所有希望防止整个东非陷入混乱的国家不可或缺的战略伙伴。


Besides the never-ending anarchy of neighboring Somalia, the regional challenges facing Ethiopia and its long-serving prime minister, Meles Zenawi, are daunting.	除邻国索马里无休无止的混乱局势外，长期在位的总理梅莱斯·泽纳维是摆在埃塞俄比亚面前最令人生畏的区域挑战。


The country remains on a war footing with Eritrea over the disputed border village of Badme.	国家与厄立特里亚省边境小镇端巴米的武装冲突一直不断。


The peace deal between the government and the former rebel SPLM is unraveling fast in neighboring Sudan, where a scheduled referendum in the South in January 2011 on secession and independence – part of the 2005 peace deal – may provoke a return to all-out war.	邻国苏丹政府和前造反势力苏丹人民解放运动的和平协议前所未有的稳固，定于2011年1月在南部举行的分离和独立问题全民公决可能再次引发一场全面的战争，这次全民公决是2005年和平协议的组成部分。


Further south, Kenya remains scarred by the aftermath of post-election violence, and its constitutional review process could lead to yet more bloodshed.	再往南去，因选举而引发的暴力仍然让肯尼亚伤痕累累，宪政审查程序还有可能导致更多的人员伤亡。


Moreover, Ethiopia’s proximity to strife-torn Yemen (where violent jihadis are congregating) just across the Red Sea, is complicating the country’s foreign policy because of its role in working to keep Somalia out of Islamist control.	此外，埃塞俄比亚跨红海与饱受战乱之苦的也门（也是暴力圣战份子的聚集地）相对，如此特殊的地理位置让这个国家的外交政策变得错综复杂，因为它要在避免让索马里落入伊斯兰控制的问题上发挥作用。


Despite these myriad problems – or perhaps because of them – Ethiopia has an opportunity to emerge as the undisputed regional leader.	尽管问题无数，也可能正因为问题无数，让埃塞俄比亚有机会成为无可争议的地区领袖。


Rapid population growth is projected to put it among the world’s ten most populous states by mid-century.	人口快速增长预计会在本世纪中让埃塞俄比亚成为位列世界前十的人口大国。


Though landlocked, Ethiopia is comparatively well endowed with natural resources, not least its fertile farmland, which has attracted significant investment from Saudi Arabia, among others.	虽然地处内陆，但埃塞俄比亚的自然资源却相对丰富，尤其是肥沃的耕地，已经吸引了沙特阿拉伯大量的资金流入。


A final settlement of the lengthy dispute with Egypt over the waters of the Blue Nile – which rises in Ethiopia – appears to be in sight, and could have a powerful impact on economic growth.	最终解决与埃及就蓝色尼罗河水域（埃塞俄比亚是尼罗河的发源地）的长期争端似乎胜利在望，这可能会对经济发展产生巨大的影响。


But, despite Ethiopia’s progress, the international community (especially the West) has been reluctant to view the country as a strategic partner.	虽然埃塞俄比亚取得了如此的进步，但国际社会（特别是西方国家）一直不愿意将其视为战略伙伴。


Of course, Ethiopia has its problems, but these should be seen in an African context.	当然，埃塞俄比亚有它自身的问题，但这些问题应当放在非洲的整体环境中考量。


The human-rights situation could undoubtedly be improved – in particular, the treatment of the political opposition leader Birtukan Mideksa – but Isaias Afwerki’s regime in neighboring Eritrea is worse by orders of magnitude.	人权状况无疑仍有改进的空间——特别是对待反对派政治领袖米迪克莎的方式——但邻国厄立特里亚伊萨亚斯·阿费沃尔基的政权比起埃塞俄比亚还要差很多。


The country’s ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, dominates the political landscape – but who can blame Ethiopians, surrounded by potential enemies, for giving priority to stability and order over Western-style democratic development?	埃塞俄比亚的执政联盟人民革命民主阵线主宰着政局——但谁又能指责群敌环伺的埃塞俄比亚将稳定和秩序置于西方式的民主发展之上？


Western leaders can hardly denounce Zenawi while lauding Vladimir Putin for bringing a focus on modernization to Russia’s governance.	西方领导人不能边谴责泽纳维边赞美普京，称赞后者将现代化建设作为俄罗斯执政的重中之重。


Furthermore, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda has created what amounts to a one-party state during his 24 years in power, yet he is feted in the West as one of Africa’s visionary leaders.	此外，乌干达总统约韦里·穆塞韦尼在24年的执政生涯中一手缔造了一党专制的国家，但却被当作非洲最具眼光的领袖在西方受到隆重的接待。


It seems that Ethiopia, more often than not, is the victim of diplomatic double standards.	埃塞俄比亚似乎一直是外交双重标准的牺牲者。


If Zenawi consolidates his hold on power in the parliamentary elections due this May, the world should expect the stability that he has brought to take deeper root.	如果泽纳维能在预定5月举行的议会选举中巩固自己的权力，世界应该能看到他所缔造的稳定局势得到进一步巩固。


Whether it will ripple throughout the region is another question.	是否能够像星星之火一样波及整个地区是另外一个问题。


That is why, regardless of the electoral result, Ethiopia needs international backing.	这也说明为什么埃塞俄比亚需要国际支持，而不管选举结果怎样。


It is interesting to contrast the likely consequences of the election in Ethiopia with the expected fallout from the presidential election scheduled in Sudan at around the same time.	将埃塞俄比亚选举可能产生的结果与几乎定于同时在苏丹举行的总统选举结果相互比较是个很有意思的题目。 如果奥马尔·巴希尔不出人们所料连任苏丹总统，他会更加放心大胆地加强对苏丹骚乱地区的镇压。


If Omar al-Bashir retains Sudan’s presidency, as expected, he will be emboldened to step up his hostility to the country’s restless regions.	国际社会应该不需要提醒，他在达尔富尔的血腥行动已经致使他被国际刑事法院以战争罪和反人类罪提起诉讼。


Bashir will also no doubt try to stop the oil-rich devolved region of South Sudan from declaring independence.	巴希尔无疑还将阻止石油资源丰富的南苏丹托管地区独立。


The people of South Sudan, most of whom are Christian or animists, are likely to favor secession – not least because of the memory of decades of war and the deeply resented imposition of Sharia law by Bashir’s government in Khartoum.	南苏丹民众多数都是基督教徒或者泛灵论者，他们很可能愿意选择独立——尤其回想起长达数十年的战争和巴希尔的喀土穆政府违反人民意愿强制推行伊斯兰法。


Many now believe that Bashir will seek to prevent the referendum from taking place, or to use its result as a pretext to return to war with the South – with devastating consequences across the Horn of Africa.	现在很多人认为巴希尔将竭力阻止全民公决实施，或者将公决结果当作与南方再启战端的借口——这会给非洲之角带来毁灭性的后果。


Ethiopia’s diplomacy will be vital to minimizing the potential for such violence to spread, but Ethiopia can fulfill this role only if it receives strong strategic backing from the West.	埃塞俄比亚的外交努力在防止暴力蔓延的问题上能起到关键作用，但只有得到西方国家有力的战略支持，埃塞俄比亚才能充分发挥这样的作用。


Regional rivalries and past history mean that Ethiopia has few natural allies in the region.	区域竞争和过去的历史意味着埃塞俄比亚在非洲没有多少天然的盟友。


One such ally could be Somaliland, the former British protectorate, which broke away from Somalia in 1991 and lies to the northeast of Ethiopia.	索马里兰可以算做盟友之一，这个国家以前曾是英国的保护国，1991年从索马里独立，位于埃塞俄比亚的东北部。


Somaliland is, like Ethiopia, relatively stable, economically improving, and secure.	索马里兰像埃塞俄比亚一样相对安全稳定，经济也发展得不错。


It also has a lengthy coastline and a deepwater port, Berbera, which could help land-locked Ethiopia unlock even more economic growth.	它还拥有漫长的海岸线和柏培拉深水港，可以帮助地处内陆的埃塞俄比亚获得更大的经济发展。


The moderate Islam practiced in Somaliland could not be farther removed from the barbarity of the Al-Shabab in Somalia.	索马里兰奉行的温和的伊斯兰教与阿尔沙巴布在索马里的野蛮行径相去甚远。


If Ethiopia were to recognize Somaliland as sovereign, other African Union countries would likely follow – and so, perhaps, would the United States and EU member states, which increasingly despair of patching Somalia together.	如果埃塞俄比亚承认索马里兰独立，其他非盟国家很可能会纷纷仿效——美国和欧盟成员国也有可能会跟进，拼命努力将索马里硬凑在一起让他们感到越来越绝望。


Ethiopia ’s leadership throughout the Horn of Africa could bring lasting change in a part of the world that has largely been written off.	埃塞俄比亚在非洲之角的领导地位可能会为这个被人们忽视的地区带来持久的变化。


It is time to give Ethiopia the diplomatic tools that it needs.	赋予埃塞俄比亚它所需要的外交工具现在正是时候。


The EU is Missing in Action in Afghanistan	欧盟在阿富汗碌碌无为


The withdrawal of Britain’s Paddy Ashdown as a candidate for the post of UN envoy in Afghanistan means that the international community still has some way to go before it speaks with one voice in that country.	撤回英国的阿什顿为联合国阿富汗特使侯选人的任命意味着国际社会在那个陷入黑暗的国家将开始用同一种声音说话还有待时日。


Such a unified voice is needed, for six years of war and the biggest military operation in NATO’s history have failed to subdue the Afghan insurgency, leaving President Hamid Karzai’s increasingly corrupt government dependent on the continued presence of international forces.	现在迫切需要大家发出共同声音，因为六年的战争以及北约历史上规模最大的军事行动没有能够制服阿富汗的叛乱分子，而日益腐败的卡尔扎伊总统政府则必须依靠国际力量的持续存在才得以维持下去。


Afghanistan remains the world’s fifth poorest country and its biggest opium producer, with a weak central state that is further debilitated by warlordism and the Taliban insurgency.	阿富汗依然是世界上倒数第五的最贫穷国家和最大的鸦片生产国，而薄弱的中央政府因为受到军阀和塔利班叛乱分子的挑战而进一步削弱了。


There are many reasons for this outcome, but at least some of the blame lies with the European Union.	出现这样的结果有许多原因，但是欧盟至少要承担部分的责任。


On paper, the EU effort looks impressive.	在纸面上，欧盟似乎做出了很大的努力。


Twenty-five EU nations have contributed troops to NATO’s 35,000-strong army in Afghanistan, and now represent more than half of all troops.	有25个欧盟国家派兵参加了北约在阿富汗35000人的强有力的部队，差不多占现在全部驻军的一半。


EU states command a third of all Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), and, together with the European Commission, have paid for a third of the country’s post-2001 reconstruction.	欧盟国家指挥着三分之一的省级重建队，并且和欧盟委员会一起支付了这个国家在2001年三分之一的重建费用。


But European support for the Afghan mission is in fact limited, and cooperation between the biggest EU donor governments and the European Commission remains inadequate.	但是事实上欧洲对阿富汗的支持却是非常有限的，而最大的欧盟捐助国与欧盟委员会之间的合作也相当不够。


Public support for Europe’s engagement has been plummeting, and most EU governments have failed to act on NATO’s request to boost troop levels.	公众对欧洲介入那儿的事务的支持率一直在下降，大多数欧盟国家没能响应北约增兵的要求。


One exception is the United Kingdom, which has recently pledged to increase its troop numbers in the restive poppy-growing province of Helmand.	唯一的例外是英国，它最近承诺增加它在动乱不安的鸦片种植省赫尔曼德的兵力。


But European troop contributions continue to fall short of the 17,000 US troops deployed with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and its 8,000 Coalition Force troops outside of ISAF.	但是欧洲贡献的兵力一直低于美国驻守在国际安全协助部队的17000名兵力以及国际安全协助部队之外的8000名联合部队。


Apart from 1,500 Dutch soldiers in the neighboring Uruzgan province and a Polish and Romanian presence in Ghazni, Paktika, and Zabul, no other EU nations are willing to operate in the insurgency-ridden southern and eastern parts of the country, giving the Taliban free reign.	除开驻扎在临近的乌鲁兹甘省的1500名荷兰士兵以及驻扎在加兹尼、帕克蒂亚和扎布尔省的波兰和罗马尼亚士兵外，再没有其他欧盟国家愿意在叛乱分子非常活跃的南部和东部地区进行军事行动，从而使塔利班主宰了这些地区。


Overall, there are at least 60 such operating restrictions – known as “caveats” – on European troops, preventing commanders from deploying military assets where they are most needed.	总体上，那里至少有60个这样的对于欧洲部队来说是被“告诫”的行动限制区，不允许指挥官将军队派驻到这些最需要的地方。


In areas such as policing, the rule of law, and counter-narcotics, EU states have pursued policies entirely independently of each other.	在警察、法治和打击毒品等领域，欧盟国家采取了完全各不相干的政策。


The EU Police Mission (EUPOL), launched in June 2007, was meant to address this lack of coordination, but in the end its focus was narrowed to police reform, with the Commission funding a separate judicial program.	于2007年6月成立的欧盟警卫署就是为了解决这种缺乏协调的问题，但是最后它的工作只是放在了警察队伍改革上，而由欧盟另外出资实施了一项司法计划。