At the start of 1996, the US unemployment rate was 5.6%. Then America’s businesses and investors discovered the Internet.	故事开始于1996年，当时的美国失业率是5.


Over the next four years, annual US spending on information technology equipment and software roared upward, from $281 billion to $446 billion, the US unemployment rate dropped from 5.6% to 4%, and the economy grew at a 4.3% real annual rate as the high-tech spending boom pulled extra workers out of unemployment and into jobs.	6%，此时商人和投资者发现了互联网，在随后的四年中，投资在信息技术设备和软件的支出直线上升，从2810亿美元增加到4460亿美元。 高科技的兴起给更多的人提供了就业机会，美国的失业率从5.


Back at the start of 2004, America’s banks discovered that they could borrow money cheaply from Asia and lend it out in higher-yielding domestic mortgages while using sophisticated financial engineering to wall off and strictly control their risks – or so they thought.	到了2004年初期，美国银行发现他们可以从亚洲拆借到资金，价格相当便宜，转手转贷给当时国内高收益的住房按揭，同时配以设计精良的金融工具来规避严控风险——至少当时他们是这么认为的。


Over the next two years, annual US spending on residential construction roared upward, from $624 billion to $798 billion, the US unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 4.6%, and the economy grew at a 3.1% real annual rate.	在随后的两年内，美国民用住房建筑投资直线上升，从6240亿美元飙升到7980亿。 失业率也从5.


In both of these cases, large groups of people in America decided to increase their spending.	受到以上利好的鼓舞，大量的美国人开始增加消费。


You can argue that neither group should have boosted its spending to such a degree – that both were subject to “irrational exuberance” – and that someone should have taken away the punchbowl earlier.	当然，你可以质疑，如此程度的过度消费——甚至可以说是“非理性狂欢”——应该早一点有人觉醒，拿走狂欢的“大酒杯”。


But you cannot argue that these groups did not increase their spending, and that their increased spending did not pull large numbers of Americans – roughly two million in each case – into productive and valued employment.	但你不能认为，这些人没有促进消费，没有增加大量美国人的——粗略估计是200万人——就业机会。


The government’s money is as good as anybody else’s.	政府的钱也普通百姓的钱一样，有好的一面。


If businesses’ enthusiasm for spending on high-tech gadgetry and new homeowners’ enthusiasm for spending on three-bedroom houses can boost employment and production, then what argument can Harvey, Fama, Barro, Steil, and company make that government spending will not?	如果说，企业家在高科技产品上的投资可以促进就业，买房者对三居室毫宅的梦想可以提升消费能力的话。 那么，为什么哈维，法玛，巴罗，斯泰尔之流就认为扩大政府消费就没有用呢？


I simply do not see it.	我实在是搞不明白。


The Storm Before the Calm	平静前的风暴


OXFORD – Central banks can stop worrying about inflation. Price deflation is far more likely in the near term.	牛津－各国央行可以停止对通货膨胀的担忧了，因为价格紧缩在近期更有可能发生。


But temporary deflation need not be the terror that central bankers fear, at least if the banking system is recapitalized and if interest rates in the industrial countries fall sharply.	但是，至少在银行系统进行了资本结构调整以及工业国家的利率大幅降低的情况下，暂时的通货紧缩对于央行来讲根本就不需要忌惮。


As recently as September and October, the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both saw the risk of inflation as being roughly equal to the risk to growth.	就在最近的九、十月份，美联储和欧洲中央银行都将通货膨胀的风险大致等同于增长的风险，两者都不愿大幅降低利率。


Both were reluctant to lower interest rates markedly. Indeed, financial markets may have taken the Fed’s view on US inflation as representative of other central banks’ outlook on inflation, reinforced by the surprising ECB decision of October 2 to keep interest rates on hold.	实际上，金融市场可能已经将美联储对美国通货膨胀的观点作为其他中央银行对通货膨胀观点的典型代表了，这一观点被欧洲中央银行十月二日令人吃惊的维持利率不变的决定所强化。


In October the US was on the cusp of the most significant turning point for inflation in the last 20 years.	在十月份，美国已经处在过去二十年通货膨胀最关键的转折点之上。


Of course, forecasting inflation is notoriously difficult.	当然，众所周之，要想预测通货膨胀是异常困难的。


There have been large structural shifts in the world economy (e.g., trade and financial globalization) as well as in individual economies (such as the decline in trade union power).	世界经济（例如，贸易和金融全球化）和单个经济体（例如工会实力的下降）内已经发生了巨大的结构变化。


Monetary policy itself has shifted to a far greater focus on inflation.	货币政策本身也变得更为关注通货膨胀了。


Moreover, energy and food price shocks can be both large and largely unpredictable, while the speed of price changes tends to increase with big shocks.	此外，能源和食品价格的波动非常剧烈而且基本上不可预测，与此同时，其价格的变化速度也随着这种波动越来越快。


Most forecasting models used by central banks therefore put a large weight on recent inflation.	因此，各个央行采用的大多数预测模型都十分关注最近的通货膨胀。


This approach tracks inflation quite well, except at turning points , because the models miss key underlying or long-term influences.	这种方法能很好地跟踪通货膨胀的变化，但是在情形处于转折点时却作用不大，因为这些模型都忽视了潜在的或长期的影响因素。


The turning point that the US and world economy are facing is straightforward.	美国以及世界经济面临转折点是显而易见的。


Global output is probably falling faster than at any rate since World War II, except perhaps for 1974-1975.	现在，全球产量下降的速度，可能是二战后除1974-1975年之外最快的。


Under these circumstances, large excess capacity develops and commodity prices fall.	在此种情形下，巨大的剩余生产力不断增加，商品价格也会下跌。


Indeed, it seems unlikely that governments in China and similar emerging markets can compensate swiftly enough to boost domestic consumption.	事实上，中国和类似的新兴市场国家似乎不可能对推进国内消费快速作出足够的弥补。


And, with growing over-capacity, investment in goods production may fall even further, with serious implications for GDP.	而且，随着过剩生产力的不断增加，在产品生产领域的投资会进一步减少，这会对GDP造成严重的影响。


Hence demand for commodities, which has been driven by emerging-market growth, has fallen sharply, and help decrease global inflation.	因此，由新兴市场的经济增长所推动的对商品的需求，急剧下降了，并且对降低全球范围内的通货膨胀有所帮助。


Eventually, lower commodity prices and lower inflation will act like a huge tax cut for households, allowing interest rates to fall further and thus stabilize economic activity.	最后，对家庭来说，较低的商品价格和较低的通货膨胀率会产生与大幅减税一样的效果，并使利率进一步下降，从而稳定经济行为。


Paradoxically, the faster oil prices now fall, the shorter the subsequent period of deflation will be, as further damage to the economies of industrial countries is avoided.	荒谬的是，当前石油价格下跌得越快，随后的紧缩时期就会越短，从而使对工业国家经济的进一步伤害得以避免。


Since oil and food prices have fallen sharply, and probably have further to fall, while unemployment is soaring, our models suggest that consumer price inflation, particularly in the US, must fall at record rates over the next 6-12 months.	因为石油和食品价格的急速下跌——它们可能会进一步下跌，同时失业率却在飙升，我们的模型显示，消费者物价通货膨胀率——特别是美国，在未来半年到一年内一定会跌至历史低点。


It is entirely possible that US inflation, measured over 12 months, will become negative by mid-2009..	美国以12个月为基础测算的通货膨胀率到2009年年中之前，完全有可能为负值。


While some observers still fret about inflation risk, others are concerned that the usual monetary transmission mechanism is not working, and that the US could face a Japanese-style “lost decade,” while others worry about a 1930’s-style slump in the industrial countries.	当一些观察人士仍然为通货膨胀的风险而烦恼时，另一些人则开始担忧通常的货币传导机制会不起作用，以及美国可能会面临日本式的“迷失的十年”的困境，还有人则为工业国家可能遭遇20世纪30年代式的衰退而忧心忡忡。


So the policy debate now under way is about whether monetary policy can stem deflation and what happens if and when the “zero lower bound” on interest rates is reached.	所以，当前的政策争论是关于货币政策能否遏制通货紧缩，以及如果当“零下限”利率实现时会发生什么的争论。


The zero lower bound arises because nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero.	“零下限”利率的出现是因为名义利率不可能跌至零以下。


But if nominal interest rates stay positive, while inflation is negative, then real interest rates may become too high for an economy in recession, causing recession to become more severe and prolonged.	但是，如果名义利率为正数，而通货膨胀率为负数，那么对出于衰退中的经济体来说，真实的利率就太高了，而且这会导致衰退更为严重而持久。


Deflation fears were mistakenly raised in 2001-2003, when the strong response of the US housing market and consumer spending to lower interest rates should have made the debate redundant.	在2001年到2003年，当美国房屋市场和消费者支出对降低利率的激烈反应应该使这种争论变得没有意义的时候，对通货紧缩的担忧却不合时宜地增加了。


Influenced by a misreading of the Japanese experience, this led to excessive protection against the “tail risk” of deflation.	受对日本经验误读的影响，人们采取了过分的保护以避免通货紧缩的“翘尾风险”。


Ironically, that policy response helped to fuel the credit and housing bubble, whose collapse has triggered the current recession, which may actually bring about deflation.	讽刺的是，那些政策加剧了信贷和房屋市场的泡沫，而这些泡沫的破灭引发了当前的衰退，并可能真正地带来通货紧缩。


There are important differences between the structure of the Japanese and the US economies, including the enormously high level of liquid assets held by Japanese households, which tends to lead to lower consumption when interest rates fall.	美国和日本的经济结构存在很大的差异，日本家庭持有的极高程度的流动资产就是其中的一个差异——在利率下降的时候，这会导致消费的减少。


These differences, and the lessons that have been learned from Japan’s “lost decade” about the need to refinance the banking system, suggest that a “lost decade” for the US is most unlikely.	这些差异以及从日本“迷失的十年”中吸取的要为银行系统注入资金的教训，表明美国不太可能会出现“迷失的十年”　的情况。


The policy implications outside the US and Japan, where rates are close to zero, are that central banks can safely cut policy rates and continue aggressive liquidity support operations with little risk of inflation.,..	这对美国和日本——这两国的利率接近于零——之外的国家的政策含义是：各国央行可以无风险地降低政策利率，并且在产生通货膨胀的风险很小的情况下，继续进行积极的流动性支持操作。


In any case, with so little confidence in the financial system, and credit constrained by concerns about falling housing prices, the usual transmission channels from the policy rate have been blocked.	不管怎么样，因为现在人们对金融系统非常缺乏信心，以及信贷因为对房价下跌担忧而受到遏制，政策利率正常的传导渠道已经被切断了。


Thus, the emerging emphasis on recapitalizing the banking system and more recently, on unorthodox policies, including the purchase of private sector credit securities is correct.	因此，有些国家对改变银行系统资本结构以及最近包括购买私营部门信用证券的非传统政策的重视都是非常正确的。


As some confidence returns in an eventually recapitalized banking system, and long bond yields decline with the fall in inflation, mortgage and other borrowing rates will fall and monetary transmission mechanisms will revive, supporting economic activity and stabilizing real house prices, albeit at a substantially lower level.	在对调整过资本结构的银行系统的信心恢复了一些，以及长期债券收益率随着通货膨胀率的下降而下降的时候，抵押和其他借贷的利率会随之下降，货币政策传导机制也会恢复正常； 这有助于进行经济活动和稳定房产价格——虽然是在相当低的程度上。


Finally, there are two major differences between the 1930’s and the present.	最后，20世纪30年代的危机和当前的危机相比有两个重大的区别。


The industrial world is now far more dependent on (mostly foreign) oil than it was then.	现在的工业国家比那时更加依赖石油（主要是进口的石油）。


The extreme rise in real oil prices was a major cause of the current recession, and its reversal will be a major factor in recovery.	石油实际价格的急剧上涨是当前经济衰退的一个主要原因，而石油价格的下跌也将是经济复苏的重要推手。


The other crucial difference is that we know enough not to repeat the errors – particularly trade protectionism – of the 1930’s.	另一个关键的区别在于，我们已经清楚地知道，不要重蹈20世纪30年代的覆辙——特别是不要采取贸易保护主义政策。


The Storm in Sub-Saharan Africa	萨哈拉以南非洲的风暴


WASHINGTON, DC – As the world struggles with the most serious financial turmoil of the post-war era, attention has focused on the advanced and emerging-market economies most immediately affected.	华盛顿特区--当全球与二战后最为严重的金融危机斗争的时候，人们把注意力集中到了受到直接影响的发达国家和新兴市场经济体。


But the impact on poor countries is far more severe.	但是金融危机对贫穷国家的影响远远更加剧烈。


Weak global growth is shrinking export markets, and many commodity prices are plunging.	脆弱的全球经济增长正在减少出口市场，许多基本商品的价格正在大跌。


The combination of tighter credit conditions in the advanced economies and dimmer economic prospects in low-income countries is hitting investment flows.	发达国家信贷条件紧缩以及低收入国家更为不妙的经济前景正在打击投资流。


And workers’ remittances, which now eclipse aid as the biggest financial flows to low-income countries, are also falling.	打工者的汇款现在已经超越援助成为流向低收入国家最大的资金，如今也在下降。


Sub-Saharan Africa depends heavily on commodity exports, so it is especially vulnerable to the global downturn.	非洲萨哈拉以南的国家严重依赖于商品价格，因此它们尤为受到全球经济放缓的影响。


Many African countries have used the past decade to put in place sound and sustainable economic policies that have delivered robust growth and low inflation.	许多非洲国家利用过去十年实行了有效和可持续的经济政策，而这些政策带来了强劲的经济增长以及低通货膨胀。


Together with debt relief, these policies have resulted in low levels of public debt, relatively sound financial systems, and – most important – rising living standards.	这些政策与债务免除一道带来了较低的公共债务水平，相对有效的金融体系以及最为重要的、不断提高的生活水平。


These gains are now at risk.	这些成就现在处于风险之中。


The high food and fuel prices that prevailed until recently have taken a heavy toll on the finances of many African economies.	最近的食品和燃料高价格给许多非洲经济体造成了巨大损失。


Now they face a second blow from the global recession.	现在它们面临全球衰退的第二轮打击。


The priority for Africa and the international community must be to ensure that the continent weathers the global financial storm, preserves the significant achievements of the past decade, and continues to make decisive progress in combating poverty.	非洲和国际社会的当务之急就是确保非洲大陆可以挺过全球金融风暴，保持过去十年中取得的巨大成就，并且继续在消除贫困上做出决定性进展。


This is not the time to take a break from efforts to achieve the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals.	现在并不是可以在实现联合国千年发展目标上松气的时候。


How to help Africa meet this challenge – including by learning from the lessons of past success – will be the goal of a major conference sponsored by the IMF and President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania, to be held in Dar-es-Salaam this March.	如何帮助非洲迎接这一挑战、包括总结过去成功的经验将会成为国际货币基金组织和坦桑尼亚总统基奎特今年三月在达累斯萨拉姆主办的一次重要会议的目标。


This discussion of Africa’s prospects will involve not only official policy makers, but also representatives of the private sector and civil society, which, as we all recognize, have a key role to play.	讨论非洲前程的不仅有政府决策者，而且还有私营部门和民间社会的代表。 我们所有人都承认，他们可以发挥重要的作用。


Clearly, the responsibility to implement sound economic policies rests with African countries themselves.	很明显，落实有效的经济政策的责任在于非洲国家自己。


But the international community must stand ready to help.	但是国际社会必需做好准备予以帮助。


My view is that strong policies on the African side, with strong support from the international community, offer the best prospects for sustained growth and poverty reduction in Africa.	我的观点是，非洲方面采取强有力的政策，国际社会予以强有力的支持就会给非洲的持续发展和减少贫困带来最佳的希望。


Here are three priorities that should guide us:	以下是三个重点：


·        First, while there may be scope for fiscal stimulus in some countries, in many countries it is limited; hence, the region as a whole must protect its hard-won low level of public debt.	首先，尽管有些国家可以采取财政刺激手段，但是许多国家中这一手段是有限的。 因此，该地区作为整体必需保护其来之不易的较低的公共债务。


When the storm has passed, low levels of public debt and sustainable public finances will be crucial to preserving spending that helps the poor and to bringing back the international investors who are indispensable for Africa’s future growth;	当风暴过去，低水平的公共债务以及可持续的公共财政就会对维持辅助贫困人口的开支以及带回对非洲未来增长不可或缺的国际投资者起到至关重要的作用。


·        Second, falling international prices create an opportunity to bring inflation back down from uncomfortably high levels caused by the global food and fuel price crisis early last year.	第二，国际价格下降创造了机会，可以把通货膨胀从令人难以忍受的高度降下来。 去年的全球食品和燃料价格危机造成了高物价。


This does not mean imposing rigid inflation targets.	这并不意味着实行严格的通胀指标。


But a predictable monetary policy aimed at delivering medium-term price stability – with a flexible exchange rate where appropriate – benefits both the private sector and, most importantly, the poor.	但是可以预见的、目标在于实现中期价格稳定的货币政策以及适当的、灵活的汇率对于私营部门以及最为重要的穷人都是有益的。


·        Third, the international community is obliged to deliver on its commitment to increase aid.	第三，国际社会有责任实现其增加援助的承诺。


This is not the time to renege on those commitments.	现在不是反悔这些承诺的时候。


It is equally important to restart global trade talks and bring the Doha Round to a successful conclusion – not least in order to protect Africa from the risk of rising protectionism.	同样重要的是，重新开始全球贸易谈判并且圆满结束多哈回合谈判，至少是让非洲免受不断上升的保护主义威胁。


The IMF stands ready to do its part.	国际货币基金组织准备做份内的工作。


We are working closely with our 53 African members on crafting the appropriate policy response.	我们目前与五十三个非洲成员国密切合作制定适当的对应政策。


We have increased our financing to the countries most heavily affected by food and fuel shocks.	我们已经增加向受食品和燃料冲击影响最大的国家提供资金。


And we stand ready to provide additional support – including under a new financing mechanism for countries hit by exogenous shocks – to help those whom the global financial crisis has affected most severely.	而且我们准备好提供额外支持，包括为那些国家制定新的融资机制以便帮助那些受到全球金融危机最为严重的人。


We are also stepping up our technical assistance to strengthen economic policy making in Africa, and opening two new regional technical assistance centers.	我们还在增加我们的技术援助来在非洲增强经济决策，并且开辟了两个新的地区技术援助中心。


At the conference in Tanzania, we look forward to feedback and ideas about how the Fund can do even more – and differently.	在坦桑尼亚的会议上，我们期待得到反馈以及有关本基金应当如何做更多有所不同的观点。


As Africa and its partners navigate the financial storm together, we must ensure that the most vulnerable are not forgotten.	非洲及其伙伴们正在共度金融风暴。 此时，我们必需确保不要忘记最弱势群体。


We must also ensure that solutions for strengthening financial stability and avoiding future turmoil – the focus of April’s G-20 summit – are discussed with all countries concerned.	我们还必需与所有有关国家讨论确保增强金融稳定以及避免未来动乱的方案。 这也是四月份召开的二十国集团高峰会议的主题。


All eyes are focused right now on the immediate crisis.	所有人都关注当前的危机。


But we must not lose sight of the longer-term challenges that will remain after the storm abates.	但是我们不能忘记在风暴过去以后依旧存在的、更为长期的挑战。


The Tanzania conference will allow us to assess what we have learned from past successes, as well as what needs to change in the future.	坦桑尼亚会议将让我们评估我们从过去的成功中学习到了什么以及在未来所要改变的东西。


Our shared objective is clear: to ensure that Africa not only weathers the immediate storm, but emerges from it stronger.	我们共同的目标是明确的，那就是确保非洲不仅度过当前的风暴，而且之后更加强大。


The Strange Death of Multiculturalism	多元文化主义的离奇死亡


An ideology which holds that people from different cultures must live in separate communities within a country, should not take an interest in each other and must not criticise each other is both wrong and unworkable.	有一种意识形态认为来自不同文化背景的人在同一个国家必须生活在不同的族群里，不应该彼此感兴趣，也不应该彼此批评。 这种意识形态是错误的，也是行不通的。


Of course, multiculturalism’s more thoughtful advocates never imagined that a cultural community could or should substitute for a political community.	诚然，考虑得更周全的多元文化主义的倡导者们从未想象过一个文化族群能够或应该取代政治族群。


They believed that so long as everyone abided by the law, it was not necessary for citizens to have a single hierarchy of values.	他们相信只要每个人都遵纪守法，就没有必要让所有的公民都遵循单一的价值层次。


The ideal of multiculturalism at home was echoed with an ideology of cultural relativism abroad, especially in the 1970’s and 1980’s.	国内的多元文化主义理想和国外的文化相对主义遥相呼应，尤其在1970和1980年代更是如此。


This evolved stealthily into a form of moral racism which held that white Europeans deserved liberal democracy but that people of different cultures had to wait for it.	这在悄然不觉中还演进成为一种形式的道德种族主义，其观点是白种的欧洲人配得上自由民主但其他不同文化的民族则必须等待自由民主。


African dictators might do dreadful things but somehow they did not meet with condemnation from many European intellectuals, for criticism implied cultural arrogance.	非洲的独裁者可能做出天怒人怨的事，但他们却没有遭到众多欧洲知识分子的谴责，因为批评意味着文化傲慢。


The Netherlands, where I was born, has perhaps been divided by the debate over multiculturalism more than any other country.	我的出生地荷兰可能是在多元文化主义方面争论最为激烈的国家。


The murder of the filmmaker Theo van Gogh two and a half years ago by an Islamist assassin has incited a wrenching debate about the country’s entrenched culture of tolerance and easy access for asylum-seekers.	两年半以前电影人Theo von Gogh被伊斯兰刺客谋杀的事件引发了关于这个国家长久以来的宽容文化和作为寻求避难者天堂的深刻辩论。


Long before the arrival of Muslim guest workers in the 1960’s and 1970’s Dutch society was in a sense ‘multicultural’ in that it was already organised into Protestant, Catholic, liberal and socialist “pillars,” each with its own schools, hospitals, TV stations, papers and political parties.	早在在1960和1970年代穆斯林客籍劳工到来之前，荷兰社会就已具备“多元文化”感了。 其具体表现是社会组织架构中的清教、天主教、自由派和社会主义等几大“支柱”。


When guest workers from Morocco and Turkey became de facto immigrants, some began to champion the creation of an additional Muslim pillar.	每一个阵营都有自己的学校、医院、电视台、报纸和政党。 当来自摩洛哥和土耳其的客籍劳工成为实际上的移民，他们中的有些人就牵头创立另一个穆斯林支柱。


But at the moment that multiculturalism’s advocates were making this suggestion, Dutch society was undergoing a dramatic transition.	但当多元文化主义的倡导者们提出这个建议时，荷兰社会正经历着巨变。


With secularization taking hold, the traditional pillars began to break down.	随着世俗化成为主流，传统的支柱就开始坍塌了。


Moreover, fierce attacks on Muslims started to come from people who, raised in deeply religious families, had turned into radical leftists in the 1960’s and 1970’s.	另外，有些人开始对穆斯林发起了猛烈的攻击。 这些人成长于极度宗教的家庭之中，并在1960和1970年代转变成为极左分子。


From defining themselves as anti-colonialists and anti-racists – champions of multiculturalism amp#45;amp#45; they have become fervent defenders of so-called Enlightenment values against Muslim orthodoxy.	从将自己定义为反殖民主义者和反种族主义者—多元文化主义的领军派—他们转变成为针对穆斯林正统派的所谓启蒙价值观的竭力捍卫者。


These people feared the comeback of religion; that the Protestant or Catholic oppressiveness they knew first-hand might be replaced by equally oppressive Muslim codes of conduct.	这些人害怕宗教卷土重来； 担心他们感同身受的清教或天主教的压迫可能会被同样具有压迫性的穆斯林行为准则所取代。


But their turn away from multiculturalism is not what prevented the emergence of a “Islamic” pillar in Dutch society.	但他们对多元文化主义的背离并不是阻碍荷兰社会出现一个“伊斯兰”支柱的原因。


The main problem with this idea was that people from Turkey, Morocco, and the Arab countries, some deeply religious and some quite secular, and all with perceptible animosities towards each other, would never have agreed on what should constitute such a pillar.	这一理念的主要问题是来自土耳其、摩洛哥和阿拉伯国家的人们有的是非常虔诚的教徒，而有的却非常世俗，并且他们也明显地彼此仇视。 这两种人决不会在如何建立这样一个支柱的问题上达成共识。


In any case, it is now too late to create such a pillar.	无论如何，现在要建立这样一个支柱已为时太晚。


With the earlier pillars having collapsed, the emergence of a new one would bring about a situation where an increasingly integrated majority would be negotiating with a minority, thus perpetuating its isolation in the process.	在早前的支柱已经坍塌的情况下，新支柱的出现会带来一种新的情况：日益一体化的多数派会与少数派进行谈判，而又在这一进程中保持孤立。


Whether Europeans like it or not, Muslims are part of Europe.	不管欧洲人喜不喜欢，穆斯林是欧洲的一部分。


Many will not abandon their religion, so Europeans must learn to live with them and with Islam.	许多人不会放弃他们的宗教，所以欧洲人必须学会与他们以及与伊斯兰教共处。


Of course, this will be easier if Muslims come to believe that the system also works to their benefit.	当然，如果穆斯林们能够相信这一体系是对他们有益的，那么事情就会容易一些。


Liberal democracy and Islam are reconcilable.	自由民主和伊斯兰教是可以和解的。


Indonesia’s current political transition from dictatorship to democracy, although no unqualified success, shows that this is achievable.	印度尼西亚现在从独裁到民主的政治转型，虽然没有大获成功，但也证明这是可以实现的。


Even if all of Europe’s Muslims were Islamists – which is a far cry from reality – they could not threaten the Continent’s sovereignty and, by the same token, its laws and Enlightenment values.	就算欧洲的穆斯林都是伊斯兰主义者—这当然与现实不符—他们也不能威胁到欧洲大陆的主权，同理，也威胁不到欧洲的法律和启蒙价值观。


Of course, there are groups to which Islamism appeals.	当然，伊斯兰教对于某些群体具有吸引力。


The children of immigrants, born in Europe, sense they are not fully accepted in the country where they grew up, but neither do they feel a special bond with their parent’s native country.	出生在欧洲的移民子女，感觉到他们没有被成长于其中的国家完全接受，但对父母的祖国也没有特殊的感情。


Islamism, besides offering them an answer to the question why they do not feel happy with the way they live, gives them a sense of their self-worth and a great cause to die for.	伊斯兰教除了解答他们为何生活得不快乐的问题，还能给予他们一种自我价值感和一项可以为之献身的伟大事业。


In the end, the only thing that can truly damage European values is Europe’s response to its non-Muslim majority.	最终唯一真正能够破坏欧洲价值观的，就是欧洲对其非穆斯林多数的反应。


Fear of Islam and of immigrants could lead to the adoption of non-liberal laws.	对伊斯兰教和移民的恐惧可能导致非自由化法律的出台。


By defending Enlightenment values in a dogmatic way Europeans will be the ones who undermine them.	通过教条的方式保卫启蒙价值观的欧洲人恰恰会是葬送它们的人。


Our laws prohibiting incitement to violence and insulting people for reasons of their religion are sufficient.	我们禁止出于宗教原因对人实施暴力和侮辱的法律已经足够。


Further constraints on freedom of speech – such as anti-blasphemy laws or, indeed, those laws that make Holocaust denial punishable – go too far.	进一步限制言论自由—比如反冒秽法或那些让否��大屠杀的行为受到惩罚的法律—就矫枉过正了。


But this doesn’t mean that we should not weigh our words with care.	但这并不意味着我们不应该言词谨慎。


We should distinguish carefully between different kinds of Islam, and not confuse violent revolutionary movements with mere religious orthodoxy.	我们应该仔细区分不同的伊斯兰教派，不要将暴力的革命运动和一般的宗教正统混为一谈。


Insulting Muslims simply on the basis of their faith is foolish and counterproductive, as is the increasingly popular notion that we must make sweeping pronouncements as to the superiority of “our culture.”	仅仅由于其宗教信仰而侮辱穆斯林是愚蠢的，结果也会适得其反，正如同现今有一种越来越流行的观点人认为我们必须大力宣扬“我们的文化”的优越性。


For such dogmatism undermines scepticism, the questioning of all views, including one’s own, which was and is the fundamental feature of the Enlightenment.	因为这种教条主义破坏了怀疑的精神，即质疑包括自己观点在内的所有观点的精神，而这才是启蒙的根本特点。


The trouble today is that Enlightenment values are sometimes used in a very dogmatic way against Muslims.	现在的麻烦是启蒙价值观有时以非常教条主义的方式被用来针对穆斯林。


They have become in fact a form of nationalism – “our values” have been set against “their values.”	它们实际上成为了某种形式的民族主义—“我们的价值观”被放在“他们的价值观”的对立面。


The reason for defending Enlightenment values is that they are based on good ideas, and not because they are “our culture.”	捍卫启蒙价值观的原因是它们都是建立在良好的理念之上，而不是因为它们是“我们的文化”。


To confuse culture and politics in this way is to fall into the same trap as the multiculturalists.	如此这般地混淆文化与政治就是和多元文化主义者一样陷入同一个陷阱。


And it has serious consequences.	而且这样做还会带来严重的后果。


If we antagonize Europe’s Muslims enough we will push more people into joining the Islamist revolution.	如果我们不断激怒欧洲的穆斯林，那么就会推动更多的人加入伊斯兰革命。


We must do everything to encourage Europe’s Muslim to become assimilated in European societies.	我们必须尽可能地鼓励欧洲的穆斯林融入欧洲社会。


It is our only hope.	这是我们唯一的希望。


The Strange Rebirth of American Leadership	美国领导力的离奇复兴


FLORENCE – At the recent annual meetings of the American Economic Association, there was widespread pessimism about the future of the United States.	发自佛罗伦萨——最近召开的美国经济学会年会中弥漫着一片对美国前途的悲观情绪。


“The age of American predominance is over,” declared one economist.	“美国主导世界的时代已经一去不返了。 ”一位与会经济学家宣称。


“The US should brace for social unrest amid blame over who was responsible for squandering global primacy,” said another.	“美国应当准备好应对一场社会骚动，而这场骚动的主题就是究竟谁该为世界霸主地位的失落负责。 ”另一位经济学家如是说。


We have heard this story many times before, not only in the US, but in other places as well.	我们已经不是第一次在美国或海外听到这样的言论了。


George Dangerfield’s controversial history, The Strange Death of Liberal England, describes his country’s sudden decline at the peak of its power at the turn of the last century. The world everyone knew simply and inexplicably seemed to disappear.	在备受争议的《自由主义英格兰的离奇死亡》一书中，英国历史学家乔治·丹格菲尔德是这样解释大英帝国在19世纪与20世纪之交突然从权力巅锋跌落的：那个大家所熟悉的世界似乎就这样平白无故地消失了。


Many Americans – think of the Tea Party’s adherents, for example – fear that something similar is happening to their own country. Or that it has already happened.	而许多美国人——比如那些茶党的拥护者——则害怕同样的事情会发生在自己的国家身上，或者说，一切已经发生了。


Dangerfield based his diagnosis on a cross-section of institutions, politics, and personalities, set against the bitter class warfare of the time.	丹格菲尔德在当时英国的制度，政治和人性等因素之间截取了的一个横截面，并在剧烈阶级斗争的背景下对此进行分析。


Americans, however, have generally been averse to class warfare.	而美国人一般对阶级斗争不感兴趣。


True, the US has been home to a rigid, albeit comparably fluid, class structure ever since its founding.	毫无疑问，美国自立国以来就拥有一个固化（尽管流动性相对较强）的社会结构。


But Americans just don’t like to talk about it, even when they are whining about the follies of the “elite.”	但美国人就是不喜欢讨论这个话题，即便是对那些“精英”的闹剧大发牢骚时也一样。


Nearly all Americans, apart from the richest and poorest, define themselves as “middle class.”	几乎所有美国人（除极穷与极富者外）都将自己定义为“中产阶级”。


Such remains America’s democratic ethos.	而这也使美国的民主特质得以完好保存。


Still, it is right to ask if the American way of life will survive the twenty-first century, and, if it does, whether it will survive in America or migrate elsewhere as the US economy and political system collapse under the accumulated weight of decades of myopic national leadership and squandered opportunities.	尽管如此，我们也应当质疑美国人这种生活方式是否能在21世纪继续存在下去，如果答案是肯定的，那么在数届急功近利的政府挥霍了无数机遇，最终经济政治双双破产的情况下，这种生活方式是将留在美国，还是迁往别处？


Indeed, Chinese President Hu Jintao’s recent trip to Washington was seen by many – particularly many Chinese – as the passing of the torch.	事实上，中国国家主席胡锦涛最近对美国的访问在许多人（尤其是许多中国人）眼中就是前来接过世界霸主的权杖了。


Pessimists have been saying this for a long time.	悲观主义者已经唠叨这些很长一段时间了。


Optimists, touting GDP and other indicators, will continue to insist that Americans have never had it so good.	而那些将目光放在GDP及其他指数上的乐观主义者们则坚称美国正迎来一个最好的时代。


If there is any continuity worth underscoring, it is the regular cohabitation of boosterism with declinism: America’s glass is always simultaneously half full and half empty.	要说有什么值得指出的持续性的话，那就是积极心态与沮丧情绪长期并存：美国人的杯子经常是一半空，一半满的。


It is no coincidence that during the Reagan/Bush years – the last time so assertive a foreign policy coincided with such large deficits – a book like Joseph Nye’s Bound to Lead (1990) could follow in the footsteps of Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of Great Powers (1988).	无怪乎在里根/老布什年代——最后一个如此鲁莽的对外政策与如此庞大的赤字共存的年代——约瑟夫·奈的《领导世界的义务》（1990年）会紧随着保罗·肯尼迪的《强权的崛起与衰落》（1988年）之后出版。


The former made a strong case for the necessity of American global hegemony; the latter warned of “imperial overstretch.”	前者坚持美国全球统治必须存在； 而后者却警告“帝国的过度延伸”。


Both authors based their arguments on an assessment of the underlying context – that is, the structure – of world power.	两位作者都是基于对世界权力分配的深层次背景——确切地说，就是结构——的分析来进行论述。


America was overstretched because its global liabilities were increasingly out of balance with its national assets, and it was bound to lead because the world as we know it is arranged favorably for it to do so.	美国之所以“过度延伸”是因为它的全球负债与其国家资产之间已经逐渐失衡，而负有“领导义务”则是因为我们所熟知的这个世界就是围绕着这一点而设计的。


Similar arguments have been raised again recently.	最近也发生了类似的讨论。


Writers Parag Khanna and Fareed Zakaria have regurgitated those made by Kennedy, Nye, and forebears like Hedley Bull in asserting that the US must lead the world away from a “new medievalism” amid the “rise of the rest” and the relative stagnation of the “West.”	作家帕拉格·坎那和法里德·扎卡利亚又开始鼓吹肯尼迪，奈甚至是老祖宗赫德利·布尔的那一套观点，坚称美国必须在“其他国家的崛起”以及“西方”的相对停滞之中负起领导责任，防止世界陷入“一个新的中世纪黑暗时代”中。


But are such writers making a valid point?	那么这些作家的观点经得起推敲吗？


If we look at moments of so-called structural convergence – the 1880’s, 1920’s, 1950’s and 1960’s, and 1990’s, in particular – we see the sources of American prosperity and power emerged in a global context, only to recede again.	如果我们回顾那些所谓结构性收敛的时刻——1880年代，1920年代，1950年代，特别是1990年代——就会发现全球图景下的美国繁荣和权力膨胀先是膨胀，然后收缩，如此往复。


Perhaps rise and fall is more of a cyclical than a linear phenomenon.	看来崛起和衰或许并非线性发展，而是不断循环。


Or maybe it’s neither.	又或者以上两者都不对。


The missing variable in most of these arguments, even Nye’s, is leadership.	其实大多数讨论（即便是约瑟夫·奈的论述）都缺少了一个可变因素，那就是领导力。


Leaders are never bound to rise or fall by circumstances alone.	领导者的崛起与失势从来就不是单纯由时势决定的。


Most historians place leadership in the foreground of human history, with structural variables having conditional, not causal, value.	大多数历史学家将领导力放在人类历史中最显著的位置，与特定而非随机的结构性变量相结合。


Beneath even the richest soil, Dangerfield wrote, may lie the most perilous residue of discord and destruction.	但正如丹格菲尔德写到的那样：即便是最肥沃的土壤也可能孕育出最凶险的冲突与毁灭。


Why have Americans been so good at leading?	美国人为何如此善于领导？


Are Americans specially blessed, or just lucky?	是美国人得上天眷顾，或只是侥幸？


Now that the US has at last begun to move, gradually and thoughtfully, away from the passions that characterized the country’s response to the 2001 terrorist attacks, it is worth asking if Bill Clinton was right to say that America’s virtues and assets always prevail against its vices and defects.	如今美国人最终开始逐渐理性地从那种导致了2001年“9·11”袭击后反应的情��中走出来，是否真像比尔·克林顿曾说的那样：美国人的美德和优点总能压倒其恶习与缺陷?


The writers mentioned above are less interested in the essence of power than in its exercise.	而上面所提到的作者们往往会更加关注权力的使用，而非其本质。


They would rather have the US become more sophisticated in the ways of the world.	他们希望美国在世界权力之路上变得更加成熟老练。


Khanna, for example – presumably drawing upon the recent writing of Edward Luttwak – urges Americans to learn from the Byzantine Empire in crafting complex and obscure alliances among large and small states and non-state entities, so that diplomacy comes to resemble something like the global derivatives market.	比如说坎那——可能是从爱德华·卢特瓦克最近的著作中得到启发——要求美国人像拜占庭帝国那样在各大小国家和非国家实体之间玩弄复杂而模糊的联盟，至此外交就变得像全球金融衍生物市场那样一团乱麻。


Americans don’t do this particularly well, however Byzantine their country’s own politics and policy-making may seem.	但不管美国国内的政治和政策制定是如何错综复杂，美国人其实并不善于这一点。


Which takes us back to structure.	这使我们又回到了结构问题上。


The US political system was never designed to rule the world.	美国的政治系统从来就不是为统治世界设计的。


Its checks and balances were meant to frustrate any such mission at the hands of an all-powerful executive, and it is doubtful that Americans would support such activism in perpetuity.	该国政府机关之间的彼此制衡就是为了防止任何类似统治在某个一手遮天的领导者手中出现，此外也有理由怀疑美国人会否一直支持类似的激进政策。


The secrets of American success are transparent yet difficult to quantify.	美国成功的秘密其实显而易见，但却无法详细说明。


Americans’ pragmatism, opportunism, fair-mindedness, inventiveness, adaptability, optimism, and, above all, their inherent competitiveness offset their tendencies toward violence, impatience, self-righteousness, and unpredictability, their fondness for novelty and celebrity for their own sake, and their self-assertion en masse – getting there, as they like to say, “fastest with the mostest.”	美国人的实用主义、机会主义、公平精神、创造力，乐观主义以及内在的好胜心抵消了那些暴力，焦躁，自以为是和恣意妄为的倾向。 他们钟情于名流和新奇玩意，但都是为了取悦自己，还有他们共同的自信与坚持——争取成功，正如他们常说的那样：“投入最多人马并在第一时间到达（南北战争时弗瑞斯特将军的名言）”。


Those who understand Americans’ deep-rooted passion for “making it” know why class or any other civil warfare has not succeeded in destroying America from within.	只有那些理解美国人根深蒂固的“争胜”热情的人才能明白为何阶级或是其他民间冲突无法从内部破坏美国。


The American character prefers displacement to destruction, the win-win to the zero-sum.	美国人的特质使其更倾向于替换，而非破坏，更倾向双赢，而非零和。


That is still true, both at home and abroad.	无论在国内还是国外，这些优点都依旧存在。


The Known Knowns of Climate Change	关于气候变化的已知的已知


POTSDAM – The philosopher Daniel Dennett once compared science to the construction of a huge pyramid.	波茨坦—哲学家丹尼特（Daniel Dennett）曾将科学比作建设巨大的金字塔。


Its base comprises the mass of well-established knowledge – no longer controversial and seldom discussed outside academia.	其基石是大量成熟的知识——不再受到争议、在学术圈之外鲜有人讨论的知识。


More recent research is piled toward the top of the pyramid, where most public debate takes place.	更新的研究堆积于金字塔尖，公共争论大部分也发生在这部分。


It is an apt metaphor for climate-change research, and one worth bearing in mind with the publication of the latest report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).	这一比方对于气候变化研究非常恰当，在联合国政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）最新报告发布之际我们尤其要记住这一点。


The IPCC’s fifth report, the product of several years of work by hundreds of climate scientists around the world, reviews our established understanding of climate change and explains more recent findings.	这份IPCC的第五份报告由全世界数百位气候学家耗时数年完成，它检视了我们已有的对气候变化的理解，并解释了更晚近的发现。


The media understandably tend to focus on the latter – like the much higher sea-level rise predictions compared to the previous IPCC report of 2007.	不难理解，媒体的目光总是集中在后者——比如，与此前的2007年IPCC报告相比，这份报告的海平面上升预测提高了很多。


But let us step back from the news cycle to look at the solid knowledge base of our pyramid.	但现在让我们把目光从新闻周期中收回，回到金字塔的稳固地基——知识上。


Climate research dates back at least two centuries, to Joseph Fourier’s discovery of the effects of greenhouse gases on planetary climates; in 1859, John Tyndall demonstrated in his laboratory which gases cause this effect.	气候研究始于两个世纪前，约瑟夫·傅里叶（Joseph Fourier）发现温室气体能影响行星的气候。 1859年，约翰·丁达尔（John Tyndall）在实验室证明了哪种气体造成了这一效应。


Detailed radiation measurements on the ground and from satellites have since proved the greenhouse effect’s existence.	此后，详尽的地面和来自卫星的辐射测量证明了温室效应的存在。


We also know beyond doubt that emissions from human activities have substantially increased the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) in our atmosphere.	我们还不带任何疑问地知道，人类活动所产生的排放大大增加了大气中的温室气体（特别是二氧化碳）数量。


When the first IPCC report was published in 1990, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere had reached 354 parts per million (up from the preindustrial baseline of 280 ppm).	1990年，当第一份IPCC报告出台时，大气二氧化碳浓度已经达到了百万分之354（工业化前的基准水平为280ppm）。


This year, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 crossed the 400 ppm line for the first time.	今年，大气浓度第一次超过了400ppm大关。


CO2 levels are already far higher than they have been in a million years, as ancient air bubbles trapped in the Antarctic ice show.	从采集自南极冰盖的远古气体中我们得知，二氧化碳正水平处于一百万年来的最高值。


We know that the amount of greenhouse gases is rising due to our emissions, and we know that this is causing warming.	我们知道，温室气体数量的增加的原因是我们的排放； 我们也知道，这会造成气候变暖。


But how much?	但到达何种程度？


The most telling number here is the “climate sensitivity” – that is, the degree of global warming caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2.	在这方面，最有意义的数字是“气候敏感度”——即大气二氧化碳翻倍所造成的全球变暖的程度。 IPCC报告给出的范围一直是1.


IPCC reports have consistently given a range of 1.5-4.5ºC (with a minor exception in the fourth report, which gave a range of 2.0-4.5ºC).	5—4. 5℃（第四版报告是个显著的例外，它给出的范围是2.


Natural climate changes in the past – for example the great ice ages – attest to the sensitivity of our planet’s climate to disturbances, and analyzing them is one method used by scientists to estimate this sensitivity.	5℃）。 过去的自然气候变化——比如在冰期时——证实，地球的气候敏感度会有起伏，分析它们是科学家估算这一敏感度的一种方法。


An extraordinary, if underappreciated, feature of the IPCC’s reports is that, though many different scientists have worked on them over the past 23 years, the fundamental conclusions have not changed.	IPCC报告的一个非凡（甚至被低估）的特色是，尽管过去23年中有许多不同科学家参与了其中的工作，但基本结论从未改变。


This reflects an overwhelming consensus among scientists from around the world.	这反映了全世界科学家之间形成了压倒性的一致。


Polls of climate researchers, as well as analysis of thousands of scientific publications, consistently show a 97-98% consensus that human-caused emissions are causing global warming.	对气候研究这的调查，以及对数千份科学出版物的分析一致显示，97—98%的研究者同意人为排放造成了全球变暖。


Yet these conclusions need to be reaffirmed in the face of efforts by well-funded special-interest groups to sow doubt among the public.	但这些结论需要一再重申，因为资金充裕的特殊利益集团不懈地在群众中播撒怀疑的种子。


Indeed, these efforts have been so successful that few members of the public are aware of the scientific consensus on the fundamentals of climate change.	事实上，这样的行径获得了巨大成功，很少有群众知道科学界对气候变化基本情况的一致。


Many believe that there is controversy where there simply is not.	许多人相信这是个有待争议的问题，其实绝非如此。


The past can serve as a guide to the consequences of the warming that we are causing.	对于我们所造成的变暖的后果，过去可以提供指导。


Scientists studying paleoclimate – the climates of the ancient past – have documented the massive impact of earlier climatic changes.	研究远古气候的科学家识别出昔日气候变化的巨大影响。


At the end of the last Ice Age, for example, global temperature rose by about 5ºC over a period of 5,000 years.	比如，在最后一次冰川期末期，全球温度在5000年的时间里升高了5℃。


This was enough to transform the Earth’s vegetation cover, melt two-thirds of the continental ice masses, and raise sea levels by more than a hundred meters.	这一变化已足以改变地球的植被覆盖，融化三分之二的陆上冰盖，使海平面升高100多米。


Slowly but surely, sea levels are inching up once again.	如今，海平面正在缓慢但毋庸置疑地再次升高。


A key conclusion of the new IPCC report is that sea-level rise has accelerated.	新IPCC报告的一个关键结论是海平面上升已经出现加速。


But, before millions of people are submerged, many will be struck by extreme weather events.	但是，在数百万人被水吞没之前，许多人将受到极端天气事件的冲击。


Record-breaking hot months now occur five times more frequently than they would in a stable, unchanging climate; these heat waves cause droughts, wild fires, poor harvests, and, inevitably, loss of life.	与稳定而无变化的气候相比，如今创纪录的炎热月份出现的频率高了五倍； 一波又一波的热浪造成了干旱、野火、歉收，最终导致生命损失。


The latest IPCC report describes our current predicament with disturbing clarity: global temperatures are climbing, mountain glaciers and polar ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more severe.	最新IPCC报告言之凿凿地勾勒出我们当前的险境：全球气温在上升，高山冰川和极地冰盖在融化，海平面在升高，极端天气事件正变得更频繁、更严重。


The details near the top of the knowledge pyramid can and should be intensely debated.	位于知识金字塔顶端的细节可以也应该受到热烈争论。


But our solid understanding of the fundamentals of global warming – the base of our knowledge of climate science – should provide reason enough to press on with the implementation of carbon-free energy technologies.	但我们对全球变暖的基本面——我们的气候学知识的基础——的可靠认识应该已经提供了足够的理由敦促我们采取无碳能源技术。


With a rapid reduction in emissions, it is still possible to keep warming within safe bounds (estimated at below 2ºC); but the task is becoming increasingly difficult.	如果能够快速减少排放，那么把变暖限制在安全范围（据测算为2℃以下）仍然是可能的； 但任务正在日益变得艰巨。


Failure to act quickly and globally will leave our children and grandchildren struggling to adapt to rapidly rising seas and devastating weather.	无法迅速采取全球行动将让我们的子孙后代难以适应快速升高的海洋和灾难性气候。


China’s Dream Team	中国梦之队


NEW HAVEN – China’s recent leadership transition was widely depicted as a triumph for conservative hard-liners and a setback for the cause of reform – a characterization that has deepened the gloominess that pervades Western perceptions of China.	纽黑文—对于中国最近的领导人交接，人们广泛认为这是保守强硬派的胜利，是改革的倒退——加深了普遍存在于西方的对中国的悲观情绪。


In fact, nothing could be further from the truth.	事实上，没有比这更深的误解了。


Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang – the top two officials in China’s new governing council (the Standing Committee of the Politburo) – are both well educated, well traveled, and sophisticated thinkers who bring a wealth of experience to the many challenges that China faces.	习近平和李克强——两位中国新最高治国机构（中共政治局常务委员会）最高领导人都是读过万卷书、行过万里路之人，他们是成熟的思想家，也经历过中国所面临的诸多挑战。


As so-called Fifth Generation leaders, they continue the steady progress in competence that has marked each of China’s leadership transitions since the emergence of Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970’s.	作为所谓的的第五代领导人，他们有能力继续沿着邓小平在20世纪70年代末定下，并在随后诸代中国领导人间实行不悖的交接程序走下去。


While it is entirely premature to judge the style and direction that China’s new leaders will take, three early hints are worth noting.	现在判断中国新领导人的风格和方向还为时过早，但有三个早期信号值得关注。


First, Xi’s assumption of power is more complete than was the case in earlier transitions.	首先，习近平的掌权比前几任更加彻底。


By immediately taking the reins of both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Central Military Commission, he has a greater opportunity to put his personal stamp on policy than his predecessors had at the start of their administrations.	他同时接过了中国共产党总书记和中央军委主席两职，与前几任相比，他有更大的机会在掌权伊始就实行自己的政策。


Yes, China governs by a consensus of the Standing Committee.	诚然，中国的治国方针需要政治局常委们的一致意见。


But Xi is well positioned to drive the thinking of a now-leaner decision-making body (downsized from nine members to seven).	但习近平的地位有利于他推动规模有所瘦身（从九人减为七人）的新决策机构的思想。


Moreover, he has long favored a market-friendly, scientific approach to economic development, which will be vital to China’s future.	此外，长期以来，他一直偏好市场友好的、科学的经济发展观点，这对中国的未来来说十分关键。


Second, Li Keqiang – the presumptive incoming premier – could be the big surprise in the new leadership team.	其次，未来总理李克强可能成为新领导集体中的大惊喜。


Unlike the current premier, Wen Jiabao, who was third in the chain of command for the past ten years, Li has been elevated to number two, which suggests a greater potential for power-sharing between the CCP and the government at the top of China’s new team.	与现任总理温家宝不同——十年来他一直是权力序列的第三号人物——李克强被提升到二号人物的地位，这表明在中国新的最高领导层中，党和政府之间会有更大的权力分配。


With a Ph.D. in economics, Li, who, as Executive Vice Premier, headed the all-important “Central Committee Finance and Economy Leading Small Group,” is especially well equipped to deal with the long-awaited structural transformation of China’s economy.	李克强拥有经济学博士学位，在担任常务副总理期间，他主持着最重要的“中央财政和经济领导小组”，是处理期待已久的中国经济结构转型的最佳领导人。


Indeed, having overseen China 2030 – an extraordinary joint report recently produced by the World Bank and China’s own high-level think tank, the Development Research Center – he has a deep understanding of the roadmap that China must embrace.	事实上，作为《中国2030》（China 2030，世界银行和中国高级智库国务院发展研究中心共同起草的最新特别联合报告）的主管，他对中国必须采用何种路线胸有成竹。


His promotion could be a major step up from Wen, who emphasized rhetoric and strategy more than implementation.	他上位后将在温家宝的基础上更进一步，后者更多地是在发声和强调战略，在实施层面作为较少。


Third, and contrary to prevailing wisdom in the West, Wang Qishan, one of China’s savviest and most experienced senior officials, has not been relegated to obscurity in his new position overseeing “discipline” on the Standing Committee.	第三，与西方的普遍看法不同，王岐山——中国最精明、最有经验的高级官员之一——在政治局常委中担任纪委书记一职并非沦为陪衬。


Yes, Wang has invaluable experience in the financial sector, and it would have been logical for him to assume similar responsibilities on the new leadership team.	诚然，王岐山在金融部门有着宝贵的经验，理应在新领导集体中承担类似的职责。


But, as one of the top seven in the CCP hierarchy, he will still be able to weigh in on all important economic and financial matters, while assuming responsibility for tackling one of China’s toughest problems – corruption.	但是，作为中共七位最高领导人之一，他仍可以在所有重要的经济和金融事务上产生作用，与此同时，他还将承担处理中国最棘手问题之一的反腐的重任。


Having known Wang for more than 15 years, my sense is that he is very well suited to this vital task.	我认识王岐山已逾15年，在我看来，他十分适合这一关键职位。


The other members of the new Standing Committee bring a broad array of experience and skills.	新常委的其他成员则拥有诸多经验和技能。


That is especially true of Yu Zhengsheng and the two Zhangs, Dejiang and Gaoli, who come from senior roles in three of China’s most powerful and dynamic urban centers – Shanghai, Chongqing, and Tianjin.	特别是俞正声、张德江和张高丽，他们来自中国最强大、最有活力的三个都市中心——上海、重庆和天津。


Their deep knowledge of the key role played by urbanization in driving economic development will be critical to broadening the structural transformation that China now faces.	他们对于城镇化推动经济发展的关键作用有着深刻认识，这将成为扩展中国当前所面临的结构转型至关重要。


The West is not only overlooking the new Chinese leaders’ enhanced skill set, but is also misjudging the current state of the country’s economy, which, while far from perfect, is not crisis-torn and in desperate need of a quick fix.	西方不仅忽略了中国新领导人强化了的技能组合，也错判了中国经济的现状。 目前，中国经济尽管远称不上完美，但亦非饱受危机摧残、急切需要修补。


In fact, China is emerging in reasonably good shape from yet another global slump.	事实上，在全球再次探底之际，中国的表现可谓相当出色。


This gives its new leaders leeway between now and the National People’s Congress in March 2013 to focus on the development of implementation tactics for their strategic agenda.	这给了新领导人充裕的回旋余地，可以在明年3月人大之前专注于制定其战略日程的实施策略。


None of this is to minimize China’s enormous challenges.	所有这些都不会减轻中国的诸多挑战。


But strategy is not the problem; the pro-consumption 12th Five-Year Plan lays that out with great clarity.	但战略不是问题； 支持消费的十二五规划制定得相当详细。


The new leadership must now shift the focus to commitment and implementation of that strategy – namely, through enactment of a new set of bold reforms, especially those related to the services sector, the social safety net, and state-owned enterprises. Xi’s emphasis on the “top-level design” of reforms lends itself particularly well to this agenda, as does Li’s intimate familiarity with the detailed blueprint provided by China 2030.	新领导人现在必须将注意力从承诺转向这一战略的实施——也就是说，果断实施新的改革，特别是服务部门、社会安全网和国有企业方面的改革措施。


Western observers, focusing on recent public statements by Xi and Li, highlight a dearth of comments in favor of economic or political reforms.	西方观察者专注于习近平和李克强最近的公开讲话，强调他们缺少对经济和政治改革的支持。


But the same could have been said of the early utterances of Deng, modern China’s greatest reformer.	但邓小平——现代中国最伟大的改革家——在掌权之初亦是如此。


As Ezra Vogel notes in Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Deng’s first public statement after his political rehabilitation in 1976 was, “Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought constitute the guiding ideology of the party.”	正如傅高义（Ezra Vogel）在《邓小平时代》（Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China）所指出的，邓小平在1976年平反后的第一次发声是“马克思列宁主义和毛泽东思想是党的指导思想”。


Those were not exactly enlightened words – especially in view of what was shortly to come.	这绝非启迪性的字眼——特别是从短期角度看。


Yet Deng seized the moment at a critical juncture that is strikingly reminiscent of the one now faced by Xi and Li.	但邓小平抓住了稍纵即逝的重要契机，习近平和李克强现在面临的局面何其相似。


As is the case in any country’s leadership transition, no one knows for certain whether China’s incoming administration is up to the multiplicity of challenges that they face.	与任何国家的领导交接一样，没人能够确定未来中国政府会如何应对他们所面临的多重挑战。


Since the days of Deng, China has had an uncanny ability to rise to the occasion and meet its challenges head on.	自邓小平时代以来，中国有一种游刃有余的魔力，能够轻松化解前进道路上的挑战。


The new generation of leaders has the right skills and experience for the task.	在这方面，新一代领导人拥有正确的技能和经验。


Western biases notwithstanding, we will know soon enough if they can translate strategy into action.	尽管西方对他们存在偏见，但我们很快就能一睹他们是否能够将战略转化为行动。


The Stressful Life of Laboratory Animals	实验动物充满压力的生活


Research on animals is performed to gain more knowledge about diseases and how to cure them, and to evaluate drugs for toxicity before testing them on humans.	动物研究是为了获得更多有关疾病和如何治愈这些疾病的知识，以及在将药物用于人体试验前评估它们的毒性。


In fact, animal studies have played a vital role in almost every major medical advance.	事实上，动物研究在几乎每一项重大的医学进步中都扮演了一个重要的角色。


Although researchers are committed to finding new ways to reduce and replace animal testing, current technology cannot yet replace many types of animal research.	尽管研究者们一直在努力寻找减少和替代动物试验的新的方式，目前的技术依然无法替代许多种动物研究。


The Nuffield Council on Bioethics estimates that between 50 and 100 million animals, from flies to monkeys, are euthanized for research each year worldwide, with roughly 90% of the vertebrate animals used for research being rodents.	Nuffield生物伦理理事会估计全世界每年有5千万到1亿只动物，从飞虫到猴子，因为研究而接受安乐死，其中大约90%用于研究的脊椎动物是啮齿类动物。


Gaining useful knowledge from animal research requires robust experimental findings: different scientists should be able to reproduce them in different locations.	从动物研究中获得有用的知识需要有力的实验事实：不同的科学家应该能够在不同的地点复制这些实验事实。


This requires a thorough understanding of each animal species and its biology.	这要求对每个动物种类及其生物学有充分的了解。


Evidence is gradually accumulating that the majority of mammalian research animals, particularly rodents, are mentally stressed by their living conditions.	越来越多的证据表明很大一部分用于研究的哺乳动物，尤其是啮齿类动物，因为它们的生活条件而受到心理压力。


Stress is generally defined as the state that results when the brain instructs the body to make changes in order to adapt to a new or excessive demand and the individual perceives that the demand will exceed the personal resources which he or she has available.	压力通常为定义为导致大脑指令身体作出改变以适应一种新的或过高的要求并且该个体认为这种要求将超出其能提供的个人资源的状态。


The response is fuelled by stress hormones that flow through the body, altering every organ and biochemical function, with wide-ranging effects on metabolism, growth, and reproduction.	对此作出的响应是压力荷尔蒙传导到身体的每个部位，改变每个器官和生物化学功能，并且对新陈代谢、生长和生殖都产生广泛的影响。


Although the environments of laboratory animals are usually well controlled in terms of lighting, temperature, and humidity, there are many uncontrolled sources of noise in animal facilities, most of which derive from human activities.	尽管实验动物生活的环境通常在光线、温度和湿度等方面有良好的控制，但是在动物生活的设施内还是有许多未得到控制的噪音的来源，其中大部分来自人类的活动。


These include high-pressure hoses, cage cleaners, and air-conditioners/heaters; squeaking doors, carts, and movable chairs; and jangling keys.	这包括高压水龙头、笼子清洗设备、空调以及加热器； 门、手推车和可移动椅子以及钥匙发出的噪音。


Rodents, in particular, are sensitive to these noises, and studies show that this sensitivity does not diminish with time, as is commonly assumed.	啮齿类动物对这些噪音尤其敏感，并且研究显示这种敏感性并不会像通常预期的那样随着时间的推移而有所减弱。


These noises can alter rodents’ behavior and even adversely affect their health.	这些噪音会改变啮齿类动物的行为，甚至对它们的健康产生负面影响。


Yet, surprisingly, many scientists are unaware that loud noises in their animal facilities can affect research outcomes and compromise their data.	然而，令人惊讶的是，许多科学家并不清楚动物生活设施内巨大的噪音会影响研究结果以及得出的数据。


Apart from noise problems, research animals are often housed in small cages with no source of enrichment, such as wheels, shelves, or tubes.	除开噪音问题，供研究的动物通常被关在很小的笼子里，四周没有像轮子、架子或管子这样可以充实它们生活的装置。


Such devices enable animals to exert some control over their environment, such as escaping an attack from a cage-mate by moving to another level in the cage or hiding.	这些装置可以使动物在某种程度上控制它们生活的环境，比如通过移动到笼子的另一层或躲起来以逃避生活在同一只笼子内的其他动物的攻击。


Often, researchers are unwilling to include such items in their animals’ cages because other researchers do not.	研究者们通常不愿意在他们的动物笼子里放置这些东西，因为其他研究者也没有这样做。


However, rigorous standardization of the environment, particularly if it leads to barren surroundings, increases the risk of obtaining results that, being specific to a narrow set of conditions, cannot be compared with other researchers’ results.	然而，对环境严格的标准化，尤其是如果它导致了周围物品的贫乏，会增加取得的结果只是特定于一组狭窄的条件范围而无法与其他研究者所的研究结果进行对比的风险。


If animals are under stress, they can have permanently raised concentrations of stress hormones, reduced concentrations of sex hormones, and compromised immune systems.	如果动物生存在压力下，就会永久性地增加它们体内压力荷尔蒙的浓度，降低性荷尔蒙的浓度以及损害免疫系统。


These uncontrolled variables make the animals unsuitable subjects for scientific studies.	这些不可控制的变量会使动物不再适合进行科学研究。


To ensure good science, research animals should be healthy and exhibit normal behavior, apart from the specific effects under investigation.	为了确保进行良好的科学研究，除开作为研究的特定结果，供研究的动物应该是健康的并且表现出正常的行为。


Researchers often dismiss questions concerning environmental influences on their experimental data by claiming that such effects “cancel out,” because their control animals are housed under the same conditions.	研究者通常忽视环境因素对他们实验数据的影响，而声称这些作用可以“约去不计”，因为他们控制的动物都被圈养在同样的条件下。


But the conclusions drawn from such experiments are specific to the stressed animals and cannot necessarily be extrapolated to healthy animals.	但是从这些实验中得出的结论只是特定于处于压力下的动物而言，无法被必要地推断到健康的动物身上。


The increasing use of genetically modified mice since their advent 20 years ago amplifies this problem.	自从20年前面世以来被用得越来越多的基因重组鼠使这一问题变得更加严重。


Genetically modified mice either lack a specific gene or gene-pair (knock-out mice) or carry a piece of foreign DNA integrated into their own chromosomes (transgenic mice), and are used to deduce the functions of particular genes.	基因重组鼠不是缺少一种特定的基因或基因配对（基因剔除鼠），就是携带有一个被植入它们自己的染色体的外来DNA（转基因鼠），并且被用来推断特定基因的功能。


Studies are beginning to show that an animal’s environmental conditions can completely change the results of genetic studies.	已经有研究显示动物所生存的环境条件可以完全改变基因研究的结果。


A more humane and effective way to ensure the validity and usefulness of animal experimentation would be to provide conditions that minimize stress-related activities such as excessive grooming and fighting.	采用更人性和有效的方式以确保动物实验的有效性和有用性应该是最大限度地减少与压力有关的活动，比如过度的照料和打斗。


In addition, the environment should allow the animals to perform the behaviors normal for their species.	此外，给动物提供的环境应该使它们能够进行一些对它们的种类来说正常的行为。


Normal and aberrant behaviors for each species could be agreed upon institutionally and a list made available to all investigators.	每个种类正常和异常的行为可以明确地进行规定并且列成表提供给所有的研究者。


Designing an environment to suit animals’ psychological and physiological needs would be far preferable to the minimalism, otherwise known as “standardization,” that is currently employed.	设计一个适合动物心理和生理需求的环境要比目前所运用的最简单化，或者说“标准化”有益得多。


The exact conditions used to achieve these goals would probably vary between laboratories.	实现这些目标所需要的确切条件也许在不同的实验室会有很大的区别。


But the end result would be similar.	但是最后得出的结果是一样的。


Both the welfare of research animals and the quality of the science would be markedly improved, leading to data that could be meaningfully applied to our quest for medical knowledge.	供研究动物的福利和科学研究的质量都会得到巨大的提高，从而使得出的数据能够被有意义地应用在我们对医学知识的追求上。


The Strong Force is Almost With Us	强大的力量就快与我们同在


HAMBURG – Roughly 60 years ago, the discovery of nuclear power promised the ultimate solution to the world’s energy problems.	发自汉堡——大约60年前，核能的发现为世界能源问题承诺了一条终极解决方案。


Today, this promise remains unfulfilled.	但时至今日，这一承诺却依旧未能实现。


Development of nuclear technology has stagnated, with nuclear power plants still using technology developed a half-century ago.amp#160;	核技术的发展止步不前，许多核电站使用的还是半个世纪以前发展出来的技术。


Nuclear energy is produced in the decay processes of heavy elements, like Uranium or Thorium.	核能是由铀和钍这类重元素的裂变反应所产生的。


The nuclei of their atoms usually decay into two smaller nuclei and a couple of neutrons, releasing many million times more energy than any chemical process ever could.	反应中，这些元素的原子核通常会裂变成两个较小的原子核以及两三个中子，并释放出比任何化学反应都大几百万倍的能量。


Heavy elements contain so much energy because they stored a fraction of the energy released in the supernova explosion that created our Earth and the solar system around five billion years ago.amp#160;	而重元素之所以中拥有如此巨大的能量，就是因为其内部储存了超新星爆发时所释放出来的一小部分能量，要知道正是这种能量在大约50亿年前创造了地球和整个太阳系。


Today’s power plants use as a fuel a special kind of Uranium, U-235, which is burned in a chain process whereby the neutrons from one nuclear decay induce the next decay.	当今的核电站使用一种特殊的铀元素（铀235）作为燃料，通过从一个原子核裂变反应中释放中子并引发另一原子核裂变的链式反应来产生能量。


Neither Uranium-238, which is roughly 100 times more abundant than U-235, nor Thorium, which is even more accessible, is used to produce energy on a large scale.	但不管是储量比铀235丰富一百倍的铀238还是更容易从自然界中获取的钍都无法被大规模地用于生产能量。


Indeed, in principle, every heavy element, even lead, is a potential source of nuclear energy.	事实上，任何重元素（甚至是铅）在理论上都可以成为核能的潜在来源。


Everybody who has studied nuclear decay processes has been struck by the myriad possible ways in which energy can be produced.	几乎所有学习过核裂变反应的人都会感到震惊：原来获取能量的可能方式竟有千千万万。


Progress in gaining access to this resource has, however, been very slow.	但在获取这些资源方面的进展却异常缓慢。


From the scientific point of view, the main problem is a lack of knowledge.	从科学家的角度看来，主要的问题就是知识的缺乏。


Despite many hundreds of well-functioning nuclear power plants, our understanding of nuclear forces is only empirical, and empirical knowledge is always imperfect.	尽管已经有数百座核电站在成功运作着，我们对核能的理解其实还只停留在观察实验层面上，而用这种方式所得到的知识往往是不完整的。


For example, in producing nuclear energy, the decay reactions repeat many times, with the imperfections of every repetition resulting in a loss of predictive power of computations.	比如说在产生核能的过程中，裂变反应多次重复，而每次重复过程的不完全则导致释放出来的能量较预期中少。


This hampers the optimization process, and is one of the main reasons why several large projects investigating energy production using more abundant Uranium-238 or Thorium (fast breeder reactors) were closed in Europe and the United States before they achieved the expected level of performance.	这妨碍了反应的最优化，也是欧美许多试图通过储量更丰富的铀238或钍（快中子增殖反应堆）来产生能量的大型项目在实现预期效果之前就被迫下马的原因。


Another problem is the nuclear waste that emerges when energy is produced in the decay process.	另一个问题则是核裂变生产能量之后所产生的核废料。


The waste can be substantially, or even completely, reduced if we could use an alternative form of nuclear decay that is triggered by externally accelerated particles.	如果我们使用由外部加速粒子所激发的核裂变，这些废料可以被大部分——甚至完全——分解成为无辐射性物质。


Here, too, however, we need more precise knowledge of the properties of nuclear processes.	但与此同时，我们需要对核反应特性有更多更精确的了解。


The force binding atomic nuclei is a special case of the “strong force,” one of the four fundamental forces in nature, and is extremely difficult to investigate, because it acts very quickly and violently.	将原子核结合在一起的力其实是一种特殊的“强相互作用力”，是自然界中4种基本力的其中之一，而且对其的研究极端困难，因为这种力不但作用时间短而且极为剧烈。


Around 50 years ago, it was proposed to study the strong forces by firing protons at each other at very high energies.	大概在50年前，研究强相互作用力的方式就是使两个质子在极高能的情况下相互对撞。


The acceleration of particles at high energy slows down all physical processes, because, according to Einstein’s theory of relativity, time runs more slowly for fast-moving objects.	高能粒子的加速度将减慢所有物理过程，依照爱因斯坦的相对论，对于快速运动的物体来说时间的运行将变慢。


Since protons are the simplest nuclei, it was hoped that, at high energy, the forces acting during the scattering of protons could be observed and analyzed like in a slow-motion film, providing a precise understanding of the strong force.	由于质子是最简单的核，因此科学家希望在高能情况下质子散射所产生的力量可以像一个慢动作电影一样被观察和分析，并因此能精确地理解强相互作用力。


Several large accelerator research centers were built, and the scattering of particles at high energies revealed a fascinating structure of matter.	全球为此建立了数座大型加速器研究中心，而高能粒子的散射也揭示了物质的奇妙结构。


New particles, called gluons, were found to mediate the strong force. Their discovery should provide a clue to precise knowledge of the strong force.	在此过程中发现的新粒子（胶子）能传递强相互作用力，而这一发现将可以提供一个精确理解强相互作用力的线索。


At short distances, gluons create an attractive force that is pretty weak and well understood.	在短距离的情况下，胶子会产生一个相当弱且已经被充分研究理解的引力。


But, at larger distances, comparable to the proton radius, the force becomes really strong, and a very large number of gluons is involved, forming complicated structures that are not well known today.	但在一个相当于质子半径的长距离上，这个力会变得相当强，并将相当数量的胶子整合成一个至今未能完全理解的复杂结构。


Therefore, for some time, it was not expected that the properties of the strong force could be directly derived from the properties of gluons.	因此在一段时期内，人们不认为强相互作用力的特性可以直接从胶子的特性中得到。


In the last few years, however, experiments at the HERA accelerator in Hamburg, Germany, have observed the strong interaction effects in slow motion, which could open a way to a precise understanding of the strong force.	但在最近几年间，位于汉堡的德国电子同步加速器研究所在实验中观察到了慢动作下的强相互作用效应，而这也开启了一个精确理解强相互作用力的途径。


At the HERA accelerator, the scattering of electrons on protons was studied at the highest energies ever for this type of experiment.	在该研究所的加速器中，电子在质子上的散射是以一种同类实验前所未有的高能情况下进行研究的。


The HERA machine operated from 1992 until 2007.	这座加速器在1992年开始运作，至2007年关闭。


One of its most important discoveries was that several distinct phenomena observed at high energies and short distances could be clearly attributed to the emission of gluons and the emergence of gluonic structures.	其中一个最重大发现就是数种在高能短距离情况下观察到的明显现象可以清晰地归结于胶子的释放和胶子结构的形成。


By observing how these structures change while increasing the distance, it should be possible to follow – and thus to understand –the action of the strong force.	通过观察在距离不断增加的情况下这些结构如何变化，就可能观察——并因此理解——强相互作用力的作用。


The appearance of such clear gluonic structures was unexpected; the experiments at HERA were not designed to study them.	这类清晰胶子结构的出现其实是意料之外的；


But the precision experiments required to measure the strong force can be designed and built with known technology.	德国电子同步加速器研究所的实验本身并非为此而设计，但测量强相互作用力的精确实验可以通过已有技术来设计建造。


So two large groups of physicists – one concentrated around the Brookhaven and Jefferson National Laboratories in the United States, and the other around CERN in Geneva – are proposing to restart the investigation of electron-proton interactions.	对此已经有两批科学家，一批集中在美国的布克海文实验室以及托马斯杰斐逊国家加速器实验室，另一批则聚集在日内瓦的欧洲粒子物理研究所，一同试图重启对电子-质子相互作用的研究。


The study of these interactions should provide a precise understanding of the strong force.	对这些相互作用的研究将提供一个对强相互作用力的精确理解。


And, as the history of physics has shown, a better understanding of natural forces will open new, completely unexpected possibilities.	同时正如物理学的历史所揭示的那样，一个对自然力的更深刻理解将开启一个崭新且出乎意料的可能性。


For example, our understanding of electromagnetic force, developed mostly in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, gave rise to today’s breathtaking developments in telecommunications, computers, chemistry, and material sciences.	比如我们在19世纪和20世纪早期对于电磁力的理解就催生了当今种种在电信、电子计算机，化学和材料学方面的惊人发展。


A preciseunderstanding of the strong force could be just as important, opening new ways to use nuclear-energy resources while solving the problems of safety and nuclear waste.	而对于开发利用核能资源的新方法，以及解决核废料问题来说，这么一个对强相互作用力的精确理解都将非常意义重大。


What’s Stopping Europe?	什么在羁绊欧洲？


PITTSBURGH – On a recent visit to Greece, French President François Hollande declared that Europe’s decline was over, and urged French companies to invest in Greece.	匹兹堡—法国总统奥朗德最近在访问希腊时宣称欧洲的熊势已经结束，并敦促法国公司赴希腊投资。


Bad advice.	这可不是好建议。


French production costs are high, but Greek costs are higher.	法国生产成本很高，但希腊成本更高。


Despite the considerable decline in Greek (and Italian and Spanish) real GDP since 2007, adjustment is far from complete.	尽管希腊（还有意大利和西班牙）的真实GDP自2007年以来降了不少，但调整远未结束。


In fact, one would be hard pressed to find broad agreement with Hollande’s assessment anywhere in Europe.	事实上，放眼欧洲，你很难找到对奥朗德观点的广泛认同。


Before the recent Italian election, financial markets showed signs of optimism, encouraged by the European Central Bank’s policy of guaranteeing eurozone members’ sovereign debt, expanding its balance sheet, and lowering interest rates.	意大利最近的选举前，受欧洲央行担保欧元区成员国主权债务、扩大其资产负债表并降低利率的政策的刺激，金融市场释放出乐观信号。


Bondholders gain when interest rates fall.	债券持有人因利率下降而获益。


But unemployment continues to rise in the heavily indebted southern countries, and output continues to lag behind Germany and other northern European countries.	但南欧重债国的失业仍在上升，产出继续滞后于德国和其他北欧国家。


The main reason for the lag is not simply low demand or large debts.	滞后的原因不仅仅是需求低和债务高。


There is a vast difference between unit labor costs – real wages adjusted for productivity – in Germany and in the heavily indebted southern countries.	德国和其他南欧重债国的单位劳动力成本——经生产率调整的真实工资——之间存在巨大差异。


When the crisis began, production costs in Greece were about 30% higher than in Germany, so Greece exported very little and imported very much.	危机开始时，希腊生产成本比德国高约三成，因此希腊出口极少而进口极多。


Production costs in other heavily indebted countries were 20-25% higher than in Germany.	其他重债国的生产成本也比德国高20—25%。


Growth will not resume until production costs in the indebted countries decline, which requires either a substantial permanent increase in productivity, a reduction in real wages, or both.	除非债务国生产成本有所下降，否则增长就不可能复苏，而生产成本下降要么要求生产率的永久性大幅提高，要么要求真实工资下降，要么双管齐下。


While some adjustment has occurred, much of the change is not permanent.	尽管已经做出了一些调整，但变化大多不持久。


Austerity reduced the number of employed workers, particularly those with low skill and productivity levels.	紧缩减少了受雇工人数量，特别是那些技能和生产率水平低下的人。


But gains in measured productivity growth from this source are not permanent changes, so a large part of the reported reductions in unit labor costs are temporary.	但由此产生的测得生产率增长并非永久性变化，因此当前录得的单位劳动力成本下降中有很大一部分是暂时性的。


Indeed, major cost differences remain.	事实上，巨大的成本差异仍然存在。


In Greece, the private sector has been forced to adjust, but the government failed to keep its promise to reduce public employment.	在希腊，私人部门被迫作出调整，但政府并未兑现削减公职的承诺。


That will prolong excessive government spending, and deficit targets will not be met on a sustained basis.	这将延长政府过度支出，而预算目标也不可能持续地达到。


Large reductions in public-sector wages brought down the primary deficit, but employment maintenance lowers productivity, raises costs, and delays adjustment.	大规模降低公共部门工资拉低了基本赤字，但保持就业岗位拉低了生产率，推高了成本，也推迟了调整。


In Italy, former Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government undertook some reforms, but it continued to support unions and corporate monopolies.	在意大利，前总理蒙蒂政府实施了一些改革，但仍支持工会和公司垄断巨头。


And Italy’s parliament rejected many of Monti’s proposed reductions in government spending.	意大利议会拒绝了大量蒙蒂关于削减政府支出的方案。


Labor and many product markets remain closed, despite the urgent need to increase competition, lower production costs, and raise productivity.	劳动力市场和其他许多产品市场仍是封闭的，尽管增加竞争、降低生产成本和提高生产率的要求十分紧迫。


After five years of slow growth and rising unemployment, voters in other indebted countries, like Italians (and French voters before them), are likely to reject additional spending reductions, tax increases, and further painful deregulation.	在经历了五年的增长放缓和失业上升后，其他债务国选民与意大利人（以及在其之前的法国人）可能会拒绝新的支出削减、税收增加和进一步的痛苦的贬值政策。


Europe must find more effective policies that reduce production costs toward German levels.	欧洲必须找到更高效的政策压低生产成本，向德国水平靠拢。


The economic historian Harold James has shown in a recent book that in the 40 years of negotiations leading to the adoption of the common currency, all of the problems that now beset the eurozone were discussed repeatedly.	经济史家哈罗德·詹姆斯（Harold James）在其近著中指出，在接受共同货币的长达40年的谈判中，今天困扰着欧元的所有问题都被反复讨论过。


Everyone understood that a monetary union would require enforceable fiscal and banking rules.	所有人都明白，货币联盟要求强制性的财政和银行规则。


But such rules were never adopted.	但这些规则从未被采取。


Before the euro, countries adjusted misaligned production costs by devaluing or revaluing their exchange rates.	在欧元引入之前，国家可以通过汇率贬值或升值调整错配的生产成本。


Fiscal austerity is a poor substitute.	财政紧缩是个拙劣的替代。


It works slowly, if at all, because elected governments are often reluctant to implement their promises – and may not feel bound by those of previous administrations (especially if they owe their victory to voters who are rebelling against years of belt-tightening with no evidence of renewed growth).	它起效缓慢（如果有效果的话），因为当选政府往往不愿兑现承诺——可能也认为不应该受前任的限制（特别是如果他们的获胜要归功于因多年不见重振增长迹象的紧缩政策而改换阵营的选民的话）。


Likewise, politicians are reluctant to adopt deregulation that eliminates state-sponsored special privileges.	类似地，政客不愿采取取消国家支持的特权的去监管化政策。


For several years, I have proposed a policy that combines growth and fiscal rectitude.	多年来，我一直建议采取结合了增长和财政清明的政策。


Let all the heavily indebted southern European countries jointly agree to join a weak euro, which would float against the stronger northern euro.	让所有南欧重债国一致同意加入弱欧元（weak euro），弱欧元将围绕更强的北方欧元（northern euro）浮动。


When the weak euro reduces the heavily indebted countries’ production costs by 20-25%, they can rejoin the “hard” euro if they accept fiscal reforms that are subject to approval by the European Commission (and thus by the hard-euro creditor countries).	当弱欧元将重债国的生产成本降低20—25%时，它们可以重新加入“硬”欧元（“hard”euro），如果它们接受须经欧盟委员会批准（从而也获得了硬欧元债权国的首肯）的财政改革的话。


After all, a fixed exchange rate or common currency requires limits on fiscal independence.	毕竟，固定汇率或共同货币意味着限制财政独立性。


The Italian election sent a message.	意大利选举传递了一个信号。


After five years of decline in living standards, voters oppose more austerity and further retrenchment without growth.	在经历了五年的生活水平下降后，选民反对更多紧缩和进一步的没有增长的节约。


Restoring a sound euro requires policies that revive growth, rein in government spending, and reform heavily regulated labor and product markets.	重塑坚挺欧元要求重振增长、遏制政府支出并改革深受监管掣肘的劳动力和产品市场的政策。


The Struggle for Syria	叙利亚的斗争


CAIRO – As the violence in Syria mounts, the international community’s paralysis has become increasingly jarring.	开罗——叙利亚愈演愈烈的暴力活动和国际社会的无能越来越不协调。


But the role of external regional forces is almost as important in fueling the domestic bloodshed as what is happening internally.	但国内势力和外部地区势力在国内流血冲突中所起的作用同样重要。


If Syria could break free of the negative influences of regional politics, genuine change without continued violence might become possible.	只有当叙利亚能摆脱地区政治的消极影响，才有可能中止暴力活动，实现真正的变革。


Syria needs to manage its diverse ethnic and religious composition, and to decide its own position on the Arab-Israeli conflict.	叙利亚需要管理好国内各种种族和宗教成分，并确定自身在阿以冲突中的立场。


But that is more difficult when neighboring countries are exploiting the country's heterogeneous makeup to pursue their own hegemonic agendas.	但邻国利用叙利亚的复杂构成实现自身霸权目标的企图为叙利亚实现上述目标增加了难度。


Syria, after all, sits at the center of mighty and antagonistic geopolitical forces.	叙利亚毕竟被强大而敌对的地缘势力团团围住。


To the east looms Iran, with its anti-American, anti-Western rhetoric and vast regional ambitions.	东边是怀揣地区野心、散布反美、反西方言论的伊朗。


To the south sits Saudi Arabia, with its long friendship with the United States and its inherent hostility toward Iran's Islamic Republic.	南边是与美国长期友好、对伊朗伊斯兰共和国抱有敌意的沙特阿拉伯。


And to the north is Turkey, a pro-European, largely secular and democratic country that seeks to wield influence across the Arab world.	北边是亲欧洲的世俗民主国家土耳其，这个国家一直寻求在阿拉伯世界发挥自己的影响。


The region in and around Syria is also populated by extremist Islamist groups that are attempting to expand their spheres of influence - and that are quick to capitalize on instability in any country.	叙利亚国内和周边地区还分布着竭力拓展自身势力的极端伊斯兰团体——他们反应迅速，擅长利用任何国家出现的动荡局势。


Syria is particularly vulnerable in this regard, as extremists incite violence against minority religious groups by using, for example, television stations in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.	叙利亚在这方面尤其脆弱，因为极端分子利用沙特和埃及的电视台煽动针对宗教少数群体的暴力。


The current regime in Syria, in its ruthless quest to remain in power, refuses to acknowledge peaceful protesters' demands for freedom and dignity.	叙利亚现政府为不择手段保住其执政地位，拒绝承认和平抗议者提出的自由和尊严要求。


If it did - and if it met those demands - Islamists would not be able to hijack the demonstrations.	如果现政府能够承认并满足这些要求，伊斯兰分子就无法利用抗议活动达到自己的目的。


Peaceful change in Syria can nonetheless be achieved, and the international community can influence that process by recognizing that its continued focus on the country's “complexity” does nothing for its people.	但叙利亚依然可以实现和平改革，只要国际社会承认一味强调叙利亚的“复杂国情”对其民众不利，就能够影响到和平改革进程的走势。


In fact, the obsession with Syria's sectarian rivalries provides destabilizing external forces with the oxygen that their inflammatory rhetoric requires.	实际上，一味揪住叙利亚的宗派敌对势力不放为破坏稳定的外部势力提供了进行煽动性宣传所需的氧气。


The incitement against Syrian religious minorities promulgated by extremist TV stations, and by people like the Chief Justice of Saudi Arabia's Supreme Judicial Council, coupled with equally damaging behavior by Iran, if left unchecked, could result in an even worse bloodbath, with Syria's people drawn into a war of all against all.	极端分子控制的电视台和沙特最高司法委员会首席法官针对叙利亚宗教少数群体所进行的煽动性宣传，再加上伊朗同样有害的所作所为，如果任其发展而不加以遏止，可能导致上演更惨烈的大屠杀，让叙利亚民众陷入到全面内战的漩涡之中。


The international community allowed change in Tunisia and Egypt to proceed at those countries' own pace.	国际社会允许突尼斯和埃及按照其自身的日程安排推进国内改革。


In Syria, a Libyan-style military intervention is not warranted, but diplomatic intervention is needed to allow the country's people to determine its future.	叙利亚虽然不一定会上演利比亚式的军事干涉行动，但需要进行外交干预，才能让叙利亚民众决定自己的未来。


The international community's goal must be to persuade neighboring countries to halt their brazen, unwarranted attacks on parts of Syrian society.	国际社会必须说服邻国停止其对叙利亚社会部分群体毫无根据的无耻攻击。


In particular, the US, which has significant influence in Saudi Arabia, must act to stop attacks by that country's extremists on Syria's religious minorities - attacks motivated merely by a desire to provoke sectarian conflict.	尤其是对沙特有重大影响力的美国，必须采取措施阻止沙特极端分子对叙利亚宗教少数派发起攻击（上述攻击以挑起宗派冲突为唯一目的）。


Likewise, efforts to weaken Iran's disruptive influence in the region must be maintained, while Turkey's regional ambitions must be kept in mind.	同样，必须继续削弱伊朗在这一区域造成的破坏性影响，同时对土耳其的地区野心保持警惕。


Optimism about the Syrian people's future must be tempered by realism about the challenges facing Syria's opposition movement and the international community alike.	在对叙利亚民众未来保持乐观态度的同时必须考虑到叙利亚反对运动和国际社会共同面对的困难现实。


Dramatic, rapid change could result in prolonged failure.	短时期内发生巨变可能导致长期面临失败的现实。


Fortunately, Syrians have no predilection for violence.	幸运的是，叙利亚人并不崇尚暴力。


For them, peaceful, gradual change is the best option.	和平、渐进的改革是他们的最佳选择。


And that requires a national dialogue, overseen by the international community, aimed at bolstering internal unity – and thus at protecting the country from regional interference.	而这需要在国际社会的监督下展开旨在维护内部团结的全国性对话，以保护叙利亚免受地区干预。


The situation in Syria is usually – and rightly – described as an intricate, multi-dimensional playing field with a wide variety of political actors and competing interests.	叙利亚局势往往——而且确实——可以用错综复杂来形容，这里的政治势力多种多样，相互间的利益也不乏矛盾冲突。


But there has been an inadequate focus on the Syrian people’s simple desire for genuine reform, greater personal freedom, and more economic opportunity.	但叙利亚人民切实改革、扩大个人自由和拓展经济机遇的简单愿望并没有引起各方足够的重视。


Syrians have experienced uninterrupted dictatorship for 40 years, and, with it, extreme economic hardship, including high unemployment, rising food prices, and endemic corruption.	叙利亚人40年来一直忍受着独裁统治及由此带来的极端经济困难，包括高失业率、粮食价格上涨和贪污之风盛行。


They are also now suffering from water shortages and a budget deficit that has been exacerbated by declining oil revenues.	他们现在又饱受水资源匮乏和预算赤字之苦，石油收入下降进一步恶化了原本已经非常严峻的形势。


But Syrians are a remarkably resilient, resourceful people, as well as being young and well educated	但叙利亚人拥有惊人的适应能力和智慧，他们总体而言朝气蓬勃，而且受过良好的教育。


With international assistance in developing Syria’s democratic institutions and political infrastructure, we can build a robust civil society that can assert its own identity and sovereignty, independent of undue outside influence.	在建设叙利亚民主体制和政治基础设施的国际支持的基础上，我们有能力在不受过度外部影响的前提下建立坚持自身个性和主权的繁荣的民间社会。


A new Syria, based on democratic principles, would not only benefit Syrians, but would be a force for stability throughout the region.	建立在民主原则上的新的叙利亚不仅将惠及叙利亚民众，而且会成为整个地区一股稳定势力。


The Sugar Season	甜蜜季节


The holiday season that is now upon us is a time for festivity, and usually of overeating.	节日是快乐时光，人们常常会趁机暴饮暴食，尤其是糖。


But the rampant consumption of sugar that marks this time of year is nothing to celebrate.	但是无节制地食用糖毫无可喜之处。


In fact, this seasonal upsurge in sugar consumption is just part of a huge transition in world health that is now underway.	事实上，季节性的大量食用糖这种行为仅仅是世界健康状况正在经历的巨大转变之一。


Many countries, especially developing countries, are facing the consequences of huge changes in lifestyle: modifications in diet, lower levels of physical activity, and increased tobacco use.	许多国家，尤其是发展中国家的生活方式正面临着巨大变化：饮食习惯改变、运动强度减轻、烟草消费增加。


These changes are determined, to a large extent, by the globalization and expansion of food markets, and by ever-greater levels of urbanization.	广而言之，由于食品市场全球化扩张和城市化步调加快，这些变化是不可避免的。


Both of these factors incite sedentary behavior at home and at work, as well as profound alterations in dietary habits.	这两个因素引发人们的长久以来形成的居家工作行为和饮食习惯发生深刻的变化。


So it should be no surprise that noncommunicable diseases (NCD's), including cardiovascular diseases (CVD's), obesity, diabetes and cancer, now kill roughly 33 million people around the world each year, and cause almost 60% of total deaths.	所以，如心血管疾病、肥胖症、糖尿病和癌症等非传染性疾病每年要夺取3300万人的性命，约占每年死亡总人数的60%，这也没什么奇怪的。


Indeed, they account for almost half the global burden of disease.	确实如此，这些与食用糖有关的疾病约占到全球疾病的一半。


By 2020, that contribution is expected to rise to 73% of all deaths and 60% of the global burden of disease.	到2020年，这些疾病的死亡人数将会占总死亡人数的73%，占全球疾病的60%。


Moreover, more than 60% these deaths occur in the developing world, and here NCD's increasingly appear in younger age groups, which can have huge implications for how productive a country's workers are.	而且，超过60%的死亡都发生在发展中国家，非传染性疾病越来越多的发生在年轻群体中，这大大地暗示了一国生产劳动力的情况。


Recent data from China reflect the extent of the problem.	来自中国的数据反应出这一问题的普遍性。


In China's rural areas, with more than 800 million people, NDC's account for more than 80% of deaths.	中国农村有8亿多人，非传染性疾病占了死亡人数的80%以上。


Many countries are now afflicted by a double burden of diseases.	许多国家正受到疾病这个大包袱的折磨。


Countries that still struggle with malnutrition and illnesses like malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS, now must contend with an explosion of CVD's, diabetes, and obesity, as well as soaring rates of high blood pressure and high blood cholesterol.	一些国家仍然和营养不良、疟疾、肺结核和艾滋病等疾病做着斗争，同时他们也要与心血管疾病、糖尿病、肥胖症、高血压和高胆固醇相抗衡。


Indeed, five of the 10 leading causes of death worldwide are related to diet and physical activity: high blood pressure, high cholesterol, low intake of fruit and vegetables, high body mass index, and insufficient exercise.	确实，引发死亡的原因10个里面有5个与饮食和运动有关，如高血压、高胆固醇、水果和蔬菜的低射入、身体质量指数过高和缺少锻炼。


Clearly, effective strategies to tackle the NCD burden require a critical examination of what people are eating and their levels of physical activity.	显然，对付非传染性疾病的有效策略是要求人们对摄入的食物和运动程度有严格的检查。


The World Health Organization, together with a group of international experts, has developed a global strategy on diet, physical activity, and health over a period of 18 months through an extensive series of consultations in more than 80 countries, and with the input of United Nations bodies, civic groups, and food producers.	世界卫生组织和国际专家小组已经制定了一个长达18个月的全球策略，通过在全球80多个国家开展一系列的会诊，再加上联合国、民间组织和食品制造商的介入，共同对付饮食和运动问题。


One of the strategy's key conclusions is that reducing the burden of NCD's requires a multi-sectoral approach.	这一策略有几项重要的结论，其中之一是多渠道的解决办法可以减轻非传染性疾病所带来的负担。


Like a toolbox, the strategy provides WHO members with a comprehensive range of policy options from which to choose.	这就好比一个工具箱，这一策略给了世界卫生组织许多政策，供其选择。


Governments can act.	各国政府要该出手时就出手。


Transport ministries should provide safe roads so that children can bike to school.	交通部长应该给孩子们提供安全的马路交通，让他们能骑车上学。


Finance ministers could tax unhealthy food and subsidize healthy food.	财政部长可以征收不健康食品的税收，补贴健康食品。


Education ministers should demand healthy school meals.	教育部长应该要求给孩子们提供营养餐。


Many countries are already developing their own national strategies.	许多国家已经制定了他们自己的全国策略。


Most of what WHO is recommending has been endorsed by public health officials for many years.	公共健康官员已经批准了世界卫生组织建议的大多数内容。


But we face a global problem, with many international stakeholders, and this requires an urgent and worldwide response.	但是，我们面临的是涉及许多国家的全球问题，这需要世界各国给与快速的回应。


Of course, there is considerable debate about what precisely makes for a healthy diet.	当然，对于什么是真正健康的饮食会有一个激烈的讨论。


This debate is both welcome and to be expected; improving diet and finding ways to increase physical activity is a complex issue.	这样的争论是受欢迎的，也值得期待。 提高饮食质量、寻求加强运动的方法是一件复杂的事。


Moreover. there will always be groups with their own interests, using arguments that we do not have sufficient evidence to act.	而且，一些志同道合的小组常常会搬出一些无法付诸实践的理论。


But there has been no challenge to the strategy's recommendations from the global scientific or public health community.	但是，对于策略中的建议，全球科学或公共健康组织并未提出任何异议。


The strongest critique has come from sugar associations, who claim that the upper limit of 10% on caloric intake from sugar is not based upon scientific evidence.	最强烈的批评来自糖业协会，它声称从糖中摄取的卡路里最高限度不能超过10%的说法是没有科学根据的。


However, more than twenty national and international reports from around the world by scientific bodies governing dietary recommendations set similar or lower targets for sugar intake.	然而，来自世界国内外20多个科研机构都对糖的摄入量制定了相近或更低的标准。


The growing NCD and CVD burden is a time bomb for world health.	非传染性疾病和心血管疾病愈演愈烈，成为了全球健康的定时炸弹。


The implementation of the WHO's strategy could lead to one of the largest-ever positive shifts in human health, putting populations throughout the world on pathways to lifelong and sustained improvements in well-being.	实行世界卫生组织的策略能使人类的健康向好的方向迈出巨大的一步，把全人类推向长寿和富裕之路。


The Summit of Europe’s Ineffectiveness	欧洲无效率的峰会


LONDON – The European Union likes summits.	发自伦敦 —— 欧盟喜欢召开峰会。


Just look at the way it reacts when the other side decides not to show up (for example, its response to President Barack Obama’s decision not to attend the May EU-US summit in Madrid).	但当峰会的另一方决定不出席会议的时候，让我们看看欧盟是如何反应的（正如巴拉克·奥巴马总统决定不出席5月马德里举行的欧美首脑会议时，欧盟的反应）。


If the EU wants to be taken seriously and have a tangible impact, it needs to learn that talking about the right things is no substitute for taking the right kind of action.	而倘若欧盟想要得到别人的重视并发挥显著影响的话，它就得明白，正确的空谈是无法取代正确的行动的。


No policy area better illustrates this EU preference for talk over action than Pakistan.	没有比欧盟的巴基斯坦政策更能揭示欧盟崇尚空谈的偏好了。 作为去年8月首次会议的延续，巴基斯坦-欧盟峰会将会在4月10日召开。


The Pakistan-EU summit will take place on April 10, a follow up to the first meeting last autumn.	但是你无法对这一大事有什么了解，因为没有人在负责筹备这一会议：新任欧洲理事会常任主席赫尔曼·范龙佩没有在筹备这场会议；


But you would be hard-pressed to know anything about the event, since nobody is taking ownership of it: not Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council’s new permanent president; not Catherine Ashton, the EU’s new foreign policy chief; not even Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero, who has pushed Spain onto the stage in plenty of other areas.	新任的欧盟外长凯瑟琳·阿斯顿也不管这事； 那位在其他许多领域都把西班牙推向了前台的西班牙首相何塞·路易斯·萨帕特罗也没有在筹备这场会议。


The reason is simple: the EU has nothing new to say or offer.	原因很简单：欧盟将要在会上说的都是些陈词滥调，毫无新意可言。


Pakistan desperately needs the EU’s vaunted expertise in police training. But any deployment of trainers is seen as too dangerous, expensive, and likely to fail.	一方面，巴基斯坦渴望得到欧盟引以为豪的警察培训经验，但另一方面，任何部署培训人员的行动都被认为是十分危险，费用高昂且极易失败的。


Instead, individual member states are going it alone, with their own bite-sized assistance projects.	为此，只有由某几个成员国单独用自己的小规模援助项目来进行培训。


The EU is equally unlikely to change dramatically its development-aid policies towards Pakistan.	在对巴基斯坦的发展援助政策方面，欧盟也同样不会有太大程度的改变。


Questions of capacity, corruption, and quality assurance remain unanswered, and with the US granting $1.5 billion a year for five years, any change in the EU stance would be relatively insignificant.	考虑到在执行能力，腐败以及质量控制等方面仍存在疑问，以及美国承诺在未来5年给予每年15亿美元的援助，可以预见，欧盟立场的任何改变都不会产生太大的影响。


There is also the question of President Asif Zardari’s government.	而阿西夫·扎尔达里的政府也存在问题。


Since his five-year term began in September 2008, Zardari has found it hard to assert his authority. Like his predecessor, General Pervez Musharraf, he is in danger of falling victim to a tide of anti-Americanism, fueled by disquiet over US policies in Pakistan, such as the use of military drones and covert operations.	自2008年9月开始他的5年任期起，扎尔达里都难以树立自己的权威，而且跟其前任穆沙拉夫将军一样可能沦为反美主义浪潮的牺牲品，而这一浪潮是由巴基斯坦境内对美国政策 —— 诸如使用武装无人机以及执行秘密军事行动 —— 感到不安的人们所激起的。


Unlike Musharraf, Zardari cannot count on the support of the army, which remains Pakistan’s most powerful state institution.	但与穆沙拉夫不同，扎尔达里无法依赖军队这一巴基斯坦境内最具权威的国家机构。


It has already reacted furiously to attempts to curb its powers and rein in the activities of its intelligence apparatus.	而对于试图控制其权力以及钳制其情报机构行动的行为，军队已经表达了其愤怒。


Sensing Zardari’s weakness, his main rival, Nawaz Sharif, is said to be plotting a political comeback.	据说在发现了扎尔达里的弱点之后，其主要竞争对手纳瓦兹·谢里夫正在政治上策划东山再起。


Given this context, the Pakistan-EU summit will come and go, with barely the caterers noticing.	在这样的背景下 ， 巴基斯坦 - 欧盟峰会将会悄悄地开始 ， 悄悄地结束 ， 甚至不为会议承办方所注意。


The EU will remain a minor player in Pakistan.	欧盟在巴基斯坦依然是个次要的角色。


Does this matter?	但这有什么问题呢？


Even the engaged US finds it difficult to attain its aims: witness the Pakistani interpretation of America’s $7.5 billion aid package as interference rather than goodwill.	即便是全情投入其中的美国也发现很难实现自己的目标：它看到是巴基斯坦人把美国75亿美元的援助计划当作是干涉内政而不是善意。


So why should the EU even bother?	那么，欧盟为什么还要趟这一浑水呢？


There are perhaps three reasons. First, the EU needs to focus on Pakistan because terrorists in Pakistan focus on the EU.	欧盟的介入可以归结为如下三个原因：第一，欧盟关注巴基斯坦是因为巴基斯坦境内的恐怖分子看上了欧盟。


In its 2009 intelligence assessment (the TE-SAT Terrorism Situation and Trend Report), Europol concluded that “Pakistan [has] replaced Iraq as preferred destinations for volunteers wishing to engage in armed conflict.”	在欧盟2009年的情报评估（TE-SAT报告，即《恐怖主义现状及趋势报告》）中，欧盟的政治家得出了这样的结论， “ 巴基斯坦已经取代伊拉克成为渴望介入军事冲突的志愿者的理想集散地。


A senior EU official spelled out what this means: there had been “many cases in the recent past where either Pakistanis were coming to Europe or young EU citizens were going to Pakistan for training and being brainwashed.”	” 欧盟一位高级官员解释其中的含义说： “ 在最近一段时间，有很多案例显示要么是巴基斯坦人潜入欧洲，要么是欧盟公民奔赴巴基斯坦参加培训并被洗脑。 ”


An effective Pakistan policy would depend in part on changing US policy.	一个有效的巴基斯坦政策在某些程度上依赖于改变美国的政策。


But, in order to be taken seriously by the US, the EU needs to bring well-developed, well-resourced policies to the table, rather than 27 half-baked ideas.	但是，为了赢得美国的重视，欧盟需要拿出设计完善而且资源配置合理的方案，而不是随随便便地提出27条不成熟的想法。


So a second reason for revamping the EU’s Pakistan policy is to be able to help shape US policy rather than be a passive by-stander.	因此，修改欧盟的巴基斯坦政策的第二个原因是为了能够主动协助美国制定相应的政策，而不是单纯袖手旁观。


The third reason is that, despite its aid and effort, the US is unlikely to be able to meet its aims alone.	第三个原因是，尽管给与了大规模的援助，也做出了相当的努力，但美国无法单独实现它的目标。


The US made Pakistan a top-priority Cold War ally.	美国把巴基斯坦视为首要的冷战盟友。


As a result, many unsavory aspects of Pakistan’s conduct went unchallenged by America, while its military and intelligence services were handsomely resourced.	结果是巴基斯坦军事和情报机构获得获得了美国的慷慨支持，而美国却只能任由巴基斯坦的许多恶劣行径继续下去而无可奈何。


This nurtured two types of anti-US sentiment.	这就培植出两种反美情绪。


Ordinary Pakistanis hate the US because they believe that America supported years of oppression and military rule, while Pakistani elites are wary of anything that may undermine the position they have come to enjoy.	一方面，普通巴基斯坦人认为美国在长期以来都是支持压迫和军政府统治的，故而憎恨美国； 另一方面，巴基斯坦的精英们也小心翼翼地警惕和避免任何会削弱其固有地位的举措。


The US, therefore, will never be seen as a constructive partner in Pakistan’s development.	结果，美国永远不会被当成是���基斯坦发展的建设性伙伴。


This leaves the door open to the EU, which is recognized as a consistent supporter of democracy.	而这也为一直被认为是民主忠实支持者的欧盟留下了可乘之机。


There are many reasons to be wary of greater EU engagement in Pakistan, but foreign policy is not about easy problems; it is about addressing the difficult issues that affect people’s lives.	在欧盟更深程度地介入巴基斯坦的问题上，有很多理由可以让我们感到忧虑，但是外交政策从来不是为了解决简单问题的，而是要解决影响人们生活的棘手问题。


Pakistan matters to Europe, and Europe could matter much more to Pakistan.	对于欧盟来说，巴基斯坦很重要； 而对于巴基斯坦来说，欧盟更为重要。


If the EU wants to be a serious global player to which the US turns as a credible partner (showing up at its summits, for a start), the Pakistan-EU summit is a good opportunity to start replacing words with action.	如果欧盟想在全球范围内承担重要角色，成为美国觉得可靠的合作伙伴（首先，美国就要出席欧盟的峰会）的话，这场巴基斯坦-欧盟峰会就是个很好的契机，藉次开展崇尚实际的行动，去除空谈。


The Summit of Muted Intentions	各怀心事的峰会


MEXICO CITY – The Summit of the Americas, which takes place roughly every three years, could be viewed as the sort of Latin American boondoggle that convenes heads of state for a few days, either south or north of the Rio Grande, to make endless speeches that lead nowhere.	墨西哥城—美洲峰会是这样一件事：大约每三年来一次，巴西以南和以北诸国领导人集合在一起，没完没了地举行演讲，最后一无所获。


But every now and then, the Summit – an American initiative launched by US President Bill Clinton in 1994 – actually helps to place key issues on the hemispheric table.	但这个由美国总统克林顿于1994年创办这一峰会还是有点用的，那就是把主要问题摆上桌面来讨论。


One such issue was the so-called Free-Trade Area of the Americas, which was proposed by former US President George H.W. Bush in 1990, and then collapsed at the Mar del Plata summit in Argentina in 2005.	其中有一个问题就是所谓的美洲自由贸易区，这一想法由老布什总统于1990年提出，但在2005年的阿根廷马德普拉塔美洲峰会上谈崩了。


Incensed by the presence of Bush père’s son, President George W. Bush, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez rallied thousands of anti-American demonstrators to protest against the agreement.	出于对老布什之子、美国总统小布什的愤慨，委内瑞拉总理查韦斯率领数千反美游行者反对这一协定。


The Summit of the Americas thus serves as a bellwether of United States-Latin American relations, even if it fails to accomplish much of significance.	于是，美洲峰会就成了美国-拉美关系的风向标，尽管这个风向标有时并不怎么灵验。


This year’s summit, which will take place in Cartagena, Colombia, in mid-April, has already generated controversy.	今年的峰会将于4月中旬在哥伦比亚卡塔赫纳举行，会议还没开始，争吵倒是已经展开了。


Two traditional hot-button issues will dominate the discussions: Cuba and drugs.	两大传统热点问题将主导峰会的讨论：古巴问题和毒品问题。


Cuba has never been invited to the Summit of the Americas, because the meeting was designed to include only members of the Organization of American States (OAS) and democratically elected presidents (although Peru’s then-president, Alberto Fujimori, attended in 1998, despite having suspended the country’s constitution in an “auto-coup” in 1992).	古巴从未被邀请参加美洲峰会，因为美洲峰会只对美洲国家组织（OAS）成员国和民选产生总统的国家开放（但1998年参会的秘鲁总统藤森曾于1992年通过一场“自动政变”（auto-coup）中止了该国宪法）。


In February, Ecuador’s president, Rafael Correa, declared that if Cuban President Raúl Castro were not invited to the Summit, the ALBA countries (Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and some of the Caribbean islands) would not attend.	2月，厄瓜多尔总统科雷亚宣布，如果古巴总统劳尔·卡斯特罗不能获邀参会，ALBA国家（古巴、委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔、尼加拉瓜、玻利维亚和一些加勒比岛国）也不会与会。


This was clearly intended to provoke the US, Canada, and a handful of other countries opposed to his presence.	显然，这可能引起美国、加拿大和其他一些国家反对科雷亚的参会。


Several Latin American leaders and commentators recommended that US President Barack Obama attend, despite Castro’s presence, in order to confront him about Cuba’s dearth of democracy.	一些拉美领导人和评论家建议美国总统奥巴马不要因卡斯特罗的露面而拒绝参会并以此作为对古巴扼杀民主的抗议。


Obama did not take the bait: an accidental photo opportunity or public debate with Raúl Castro in the middle of an election campaign is not how a US president wins a second term.	奥巴马并没有上钩：和劳尔·卡斯特罗合影和公开讨论绝不是面临连任竞选的美国总统的上策。


Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos tried to defuse the issue by first ascertaining whether the Cubans actually wanted to be invited.	哥伦比亚总统桑托斯试图用探明古巴是否真的渴望获邀来平息这一问题。


Having sent his foreign minister to Havana to ask, he received a surprising response: Cuba did wish to attend, despite having rejected in 2009 an invitation to return to the OAS.	他派外交部长前往哈瓦那探听虚实，结果得到了出人意料的回答：古巴确实希望参会，尽管该国曾在2009年拒绝了重回OAS的邀请。


It was clear to Santos that, if Castro attended, the Cartagena summit would take place without Obama, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and perhaps a few other heads of state.	对桑托斯来说，显而易见的是，如果科斯特罗参会，那么卡塔赫纳峰会将不会有奥巴马和加拿大总理哈珀，可能还包括其他几个国家的首脑。


If, on the other hand, Castro did not attend, some of the ALBA members, including two neighbors with which Colombia hopes to improve relations – Ecuador and Venezuela – might not show up, either.	另一方面，如果卡斯特罗真的没有前来，那么一些ALBA国家，包括两个哥伦比亚希望改善关系的邻国（厄瓜多尔和委内瑞拉）可能也不会来了。


In the end, Santos, like his summit-hosting predecessors, had no choice but to inform the Cubans personally that they were not welcome, as “there was no consensus regarding their participation.”	最后，桑托斯与几位前任美洲峰会东道主一样别无选择，只能以个人名义告诉古巴他们不受欢迎，因为“关于他们参会的问题，没有形成一致意见”。


Despite talk of growing Latin American independence and Castro’s recent reforms, most countries, when forced to choose between Cuba and the US, choose the latter.	尽管人们都在大谈拉丁美洲的独立性和古巴最近的改革，但大部分国家在面临选古巴还是选美国的问题是都会倒向后者。


Indeed, even Cuba’s supposed allies in the region refrained from urging Santos to invite Castro.	事实上，即使是该地区本应是古巴盟友的国家，也会保持克制，不会让桑托斯邀请卡斯特罗。


So Castro will not attend, Obama will, and the ALBA leaders will probably be divided.	因此，卡斯特罗不会参会，而奥巴马会，而ALBA领导人则两说。


The participants will try to ensure that Cuba is invited to the next summit in 2015, but it is difficult to predict what will happen.	与会者将试图保证古巴能获得2015年下一次峰会的邀请，但到底会发生什么很难说。


Cuba remains Latin America’s black sheep for now.	如今，古巴仍是拉美的异类。


Because Obama will be present, other leaders may seize the opportunity to share with him their views on what is increasingly called the “failed war on drugs,” the anti-drug program originally launched by US President Richard Nixon in 1971.	既然奥巴马将会出席，其他领导人不会放过与他分享自己对于越来越热的“毒品战败”话题的观点的机会。 这一反毒品计划最初由美国总统尼克松于1971年发起。


Recently inaugurated Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina, together with Santos and other heads of state, question today’s punitive, prohibitionist approach, owing to its enormous costs and meager results, and propose a different strategy: legalization.	新上任的危地马拉总统莫利纳和桑托斯及其他一些国家的首脑一起质疑现行的惩罚禁止办法，因为这样做成本太大而收效甚微，他们提出了不同的策略：合法化。


Obama sent Vice President Joe Biden to Mexico and Central America a few weeks ago to forestall this trend, and he may have partly succeeded.	数周前，奥巴马派副总统拜登前往墨西哥和中美洲阻止这一趋势，或许已经取得了一定的承销。


Nevertheless, whereas only a smattering of political leaders and intellectuals advocated legalization in the past, nowadays officials are coming “out of the closet” on drugs in droves.	但是，尽管历史上只有少数政治领导人和知识分子支持合法化，时至今日，在毒品问题上，大量官员正在“出柜”——以前反对合法化者现在认为这一问题值得讨论；


Those who used to say that they favored a debate on the issue now support legalization; those who opposed it now accept the need for debate; and those who continue to oppose legalization do so on moral, rather than rational, grounds.	即使仍然反对合法化，也大多是出于道德考虑，而不是出于道理和理性。


But Obama has other priorities.	但奥巴马的优先考虑项并不在此。


His foreign-policy challenges, with the exception of Iran’s nuclear-enrichment program and Israel’s reaction to it, come second to the US economy’s health, and its impact on his re-election.	外交政策挑战是次于美国经济健康及其对其连任影响的第二等问题（伊朗核浓缩项目及以色列对此的反应除外）。


Latin America – even Mexico – is not on his radar screen at the moment.	拉美眼下并不在他的考虑范围内，即使墨西哥亦不例外。


Nonetheless, Obama will go to Cartagena, as he should.	不过，奥巴马还是会如期前往卡塔赫纳的。


The US has learned by now that it is in the country’s best interests to pay close attention to its southern neighbors.	如今，美国已经学乖了——与南面的邻居搞好关系符合其自身利益。


The Sumo and the Yakuza	相扑运动与日本黑社会


OSAKA – Perhaps no other sport is pursued as religiously as sumo wrestling.	发自大阪——对于日本人来说，可能没什么运动要比相扑更富有宗教意味了。


Before a match, referees (who double as Shinto priests) purify the seaweed, salt, and sake. Wrestlers wash their faces, mouths, and armpits before entering the dohyo (ring), on whose sacred sand neither shoes nor women may tread.	在比赛之前，裁判（同时也是神道教神职人员）在平台四角撒上海藻，盐和沙子来“净化”场地，相扑手则必须在上场之前沐浴更衣，洗净污秽，而中圈以内的沙子也是神圣之物，不能被鞋子和妇女所玷污的。


Before a match starts, the two contestants raise their hands to show that they are not hiding weapons in the folds of their loincloth-like belt.	在比赛开始之前，两位相扑手都必须高举双手，示意自己没有在腰带中暗藏武器。


The elders of the Japan Sumo Association (JSA), the retired wrestlers who govern the sport, see themselves less as administrators than as guardians of a holy tradition.	而日本柔道协会的那些长老们——也就是掌管着这项运动的退休相扑手——将自己视为一项神圣传统的守护者而不是管理者。


They promote wrestlers to the highest ranks not just on brute merit, but according to how much hinkaku (dignity) they are judged to possess.	他们提升相扑手等级的标准并不单纯按照此人的战绩，还得看相扑手在比赛中究竟展现了多少“尊严”。


That dignity is vanishing.	不过这种“尊严”似乎正逐渐灰飞烟灭。


Allegations of match-fixing, dope-smoking, orgies, and ties to gangsters among the sport’s top stars have enraged the Japanese public.	关于相扑明星操纵比赛、吸毒，行为失当以及与黑帮有染的指控使日本公众十分恼火。


Indeed, Japanese Sumo circles are now facing growing public infamy, causing many Japanese to wonder if the country, after 20 years of stagnation, is capable of purifying itself.	事实上，日本相扑圈着越来越受到公众厌恶，以至于许多日本人开始怀疑这个国家在经历了20年的停滞之后，究竟有没有能力去净化自己。


Backed by an enraged public, the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) recently searched some 30 sites, including a raid on a major Sumo “stable,” or training center.	在公众的声讨声中，东京警视厅最近搜查了30余处地点，其中还突击搜查了某间著名的相扑道场。


The move was made in an effort to seize material evidence about the nexus between Sumo wrestling and the “Yakuza,” Japan’s Mafia-like organized-crime groups that date from the seventeenth century.	此举是为了搜集有关相扑手和黑帮分子之间联系的证据，而这些黑帮是一些类似黑手党一样的有组织犯罪团伙，自17世纪起已经存在于日本了。


The investigation continues, and the MPD has not yet referred anyone to prosecutors.	调查一直在持续，但东京警视厅也并未将任何嫌疑人提交给检察官。


But the incessant, extended media coverage of the investigation suggests that the MPD has provided – and possibly even leaked – information from the investigation to journalists, a routine but legally dubious means of gaining public support.	然而媒体对此事持续不断的报道显示警视厅似乎提供——或者有意泄露——某些调查资料给记者，这也是警方惯用的一种打擦边球的方式，为的是赢得更多的公众支持。


Gambling is illegal in Japan, except for some limited forms of public gambling such as horse racing, bicycle racing, and lotteries.	在日本，赌博也是非法的，只有少数几种博彩方式（比如赛马，单车比赛或者彩票）可供民众参与。


The Japanese police usually overlook private gambling that does not threaten public peace and order.	警方通常也对那些不太影响公众秩序的赌博行为睁一只眼闭一只眼。


Indeed, there is a long tradition of retired police “parachuting” into lucrative posts in “Pachinko,” the de-facto gambling industry and, to a lesser extent, across the public gambling sectors.	事实上，经常有一些退休警员“空降”到某些弹珠机公司的肥缺，而这些弹珠机其实也是一种赌博行为，只不过对公众的危害比较小罢了。


These links raise the question of the real objective of the Japanese police, a bureaucratic behemoth, in their investigation of the Sumo circle.	人们也不禁质疑这会不会妨碍了警方针对相扑界的调查行动。


Sumo evolved over many centuries as a peripatetic form of public entertainment in which the wrestlers, trainers, and promoters depended on local gangs to secure facilities and an audience, including selling the tickets.	数个世纪以来，相扑都是一种四处流动表演的公众娱乐项目，因此相扑手，训练员和推广者都要依靠当地帮派来负责保卫场地和拉拢观众，甚至连卖票都一手包办。


This cozy relationship was supposedly dissolved when the traditional Sumo circle was modernized, becoming today’s JSA.	而这种暧昧的关系本该在相扑运动现代化，形成当今的相扑协会之后逐渐消亡。


But a significant part of the JSA’s revenue, if not a majority of it, still comes from ticket sales, despite the big fees that NHK, Japan’s public television, pays for broadcast rights.	但除了日本广播协会电视频道支付了转播费用之外，相扑协会还有相当一笔财源是来自于门票收入。


Sumo, as a traditional spectacle, cannot survive without respectable patrons.	而相扑作为一种传统竞技活动，必须依靠富豪们大笔的赞助才能继续生存。


But Japan’s wealthiest people, such as entrepreneurs, medical doctors, and lawyers, are nowadays less willing or financially able to continue patronizing the sport, particularly since the collapse of Japan’s asset bubble in the early 1990’s.	但日本社会的那些富有阶级，比如企业家，医生和律师，如今都不大愿意（或者没能力）去赞助这项运动，尤其是在1990年代早期日本资产泡沫爆破之后。


Instead, these respectable supporters have gradually been replaced over the years by a shady new class of rich Japanese, who have risen through loan-sharking and other dubious businesses.	相反，近年来这些赞助人的位置正逐渐被一批背景可疑的新富人所取代，这些人往往从事的是高利贷或者其他不正当行业。


As a result, some Sumo stables have become associated in one way or another with people running front companies for Yakuza organizations.	于是乎，一些相扑道场就逐渐以某种那个方式与那些为黑帮组织经营掩护企业的人建立了联系。


The Yakuza’s grip on the Sumo circle is important, because its traditional way of life is fraying.	黑帮对于相扑界的掌控意义非常重大，因为这意味着相扑的传统生活方式正逐渐泯灭。


In the 1950’s, Japanese ministers and industrialists sometimes relied on nationalist elements of Yakuza groups to quash unions and socialists.	在1950年代，日本政府官员和企业家经常会依靠黑帮中的民族主义派别来收拾工会和社会主义分子。