The wrecked body of the ruined train was buried immediately afterward, with no investigation.	事件发生后当局在尚未进行调查的情况下就匆匆掩埋了出事列车残骸。


The intellectual-property dispute between Japan and China over the technology used in China’s new bullet trains was heated even before the accident. In the wake of the crash, the dispute has come to a boil.	而原本就已甚嚣尘上的中日高速列车知识产权纠纷在撞车事故的刺激下更是到达了沸点。


Japan, of course, was the first country to build “bullet” trains, and their safety record is enviable.	日本作为第一个制造出“子弹头”火车的国家，其行车安全记录也是可圈可点的。


The Shinkansen super bullet train, which was directly affected by the earthquake that devastated northeast Japan in March, was able to resume operations on April 29.	新干线超级子弹火车虽然遭到了今年东日本大地震的直接冲击，却依然能在4月29日恢复通车。


The latest-model Japanese bullet train, the Hayabusa, which made its debut only a week before the earthquake, can operate at 320 kilometers (200 miles) per hour – and now does, following quick repairs to its line.	而时速达320公里（约200英里）的最新型号日本子弹火车“隼鸟号”在大地震发生之前一星期才正式投入运营，也在震后迅速修复线路并恢复行车速度。


Since it began operating between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka in 1964, Japan’s Shinkansen has served as a vital transport artery in Japan, and has suffered no fatal accidents.	自从在1964年开通往返东京和新大阪的第一条线路以来，新干线已经成为了日本的运输命脉，而且从未发生任何重大事故。


Let me reiterate: not a single person has died in a Shinkansen accident.	请允许我重申一次：没有任何一人在新干线事故中死亡。


The automatic train-stop system, perfected for the Shinkansen, functioned flawlessly even during the earthquake.	而专门为新干线设计的自动停车系统甚至在地震期间都能完美运行。


Despite its technological lead and enviable record, Shinkansen trains were not exported overseas for decades.	尽管在技术和安全方面都处于领先地位，但新干线在登台数十年来都没未曾出口。


The first such technology transfer was the Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR), which began operating in January 2001.	其第一次技术转让则是在2001年1月通车的台湾高速铁路。


THSR connects Taipei and Kaohsiung, which are 345 kilometers apart, in 90 minutes.	该列车往返于台北和高雄，单程345公里，耗时90分钟。


As a result of a renewed emphasis on safety following an earthquake, the Taiwanese authorities decided to use Japanese technology for the rolling stock and a mixture of German and French technology for other facilities and operations.	台湾官方出于地震安全性的考虑选择了日本机车技术，而其他设备和操作系统则使用德法技术。


Today, the great stage for the Shinkansen is China’s vast territory, where economic development continues at a stunning rate.	如今新干线的最大舞台则是经济飞速发展的中国大地。


On June 30, the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, covering the 1,318 kilometers between China’s two most important cities at approximately 300 kilometers per hour, began operating, timed to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China.	在6月30日，京沪高速铁路正式通车，将北京上海这两个中国最重要的城市直接联系起来，路线长度1318公里，行车时速约每小时300公里，同时也作为对中国共产党建党90周年的献礼。


The rolling stock for China’s CRH380A bullet train is based on technology from Kawasaki Heavy Industries, whereas the German company Siemens provided the technology for the CRH380B.	而这款CRH380A型机车的技术正是源自于日本川崎重工，而德国西门子则为另外一款CRH380B型机车提供技术。


One reason why Japan hesitated to export its high-speed rail technology was revealed by JR Tokai Chairman Takayuki Kasai, who wanted to make its provision conditional upon the “country being politically stable and governed by the rule of law.”	而日本之所以在出口高速铁路技术方面犹豫不决，正如日本东海旅客铁道株式会社（JR Tokai）社长山田佳臣所说，是因为出口必须符合“技术受让国政治稳定且实行法治”的前提条件。


He regularly highlighted the importance of compliance with enforceable contracts that would guarantee intellectual property rights.	此外他还经常强调签订的合约必须有约束力，能切实保护相关知识产权。


With these reservations in mind, JR East Japan proceeded with the export of Shinkansen technology to China. Unfortunately, Kasai’s fears have been vindicated.	带着这些顾虑，JR东日本继续向中国出口新干线技术。


Immediately before the Beijing-Shanghai railway was built, the Chinese Ministry for Railways initiated international patent claims concerning the technology used in the CRH380A.	但不幸的是，中国铁道部却发起了关于CRH380A机车相关技术的国际专利申请。


It is believed that China has now filed for 21 patents in accordance with the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT), with the aim of obtaining patents in Japan, the United States, Brazil, Europe, and Russia.	据信中国目前已经依照《专利合作条约》提交了21项专利，试图在日本、美国、巴西，欧洲和俄罗斯等地注册相关专利。


Since 2003, China has filed for 1,902 patents related to high-speed railways, with 1,421 approved and 481 still being examined.	自2003年以来，中国已经提交了1902项与高速铁路有关的专利，其中1421项得到批准，481项仍在审核。


But the 21 recent applications are the first based upon Japanese Shinkansen technology.	但最近提交的21项专利则是首次基于日本新干线技术的。


It has been reported that these patent applications are for the technology used in the carriage’s chassis and also for the front end of the lead carriage.	据报这些专利申请都是关于车辆底盘以及车头等部分。


The originality remains unknown for now, because the content of the patent application will not become clear until the 18 months required for investigating prior art has elapsed.	而这些技术的原创性至今无从知晓，因为专利申请的内容只有在为期18个月的先前技术调查结束之后才能对外披露。


But there is a strong view that the technology is an extension of that provided by either Japan or Germany, and the case could well lead to a major intellectual-property dispute.	但也有观点认定这些技术只是日德相关技术的延伸，并将因此导致大规模的知识产权纠纷。


Infringement of intellectual-property rights by China is one of the most vexing aspects of trade with the Chinese.	侵犯知识产权的行为是与中国人做生意时最令人头痛的方面。


For example, a Chinese animation called “Train Hero” received much criticism in Chinese Internet circles when it was found to be nearly identical to the popular Japanese animation called “Japan Hikarian Railroad.”	比如一部名为《高铁侠》的中国动画遭到了本国网民的极力声讨，因为这部动画其实是照抄著名日本动画《铁胆火车侠》。


Not only was the story the same, but it even took shortcuts, such as having characters eat onigiri rice balls, a Japanese food not eaten in China.	不但故事情节雷同，其制作方甚至偷懒，连片中人物吃的都是从未在中国出现过的日本饭团。


As a result, Chinese state television canceled a broadcast scheduled for August.	结果中国国营电视台为此取消了该动画片8月的档期。


The market for Shinkansen technology is growing not only in China, but also in the US (where the state of California wants to build such a system) and in emerging-market countries such as Brazil.	新干线技术的市场不仅在中国有所增长，在美国（加利福尼亚州有意兴建一条类似系统）和巴西这样的新兴市场国家也有前景。


With demand extremely large, international competition to construct high-speed railway networks is becoming intense, as the lobbying for the California contract demonstrates.	面对这个需求极端巨大的市场，兴建高速铁路网的国际竞争也日渐加剧，这在各国在加利福尼亚州铁路合同的议会游说斗争中可见一斑。


And this competition concerns not only the level of technology and speed, but also of safety.	而这场竞争不仅停留在技术和速度的层面，也极为关注安全问题。


So long as protection of intellectual-property rights in China is woefully inadequate, the high-speed rail market is likely to remain riddled with heated disputes.	如果中国对知识产权的保护一直这样混乱下去，高速铁路市场也将被相关的激烈冲突所困扰。


In China, the rush to apply for patents is sometimes said to be about saving face with ordinary Chinese, who might well object to buying technology from abroad when China’s government so often lauds homegrown technology.	在中国，申请专利的热潮有时被认为是为了维护普通中国人的面子，因为这些人在中国政府大肆吹嘘本土技术的情况下反对购买国外技术。


But China will lose even more face if it is shown to have pirated the Shinkansen technologies that it now claims as its own.	但如果中国真正被发现剽窃了新干线技术的话，那么它丢的面子肯定会更大。


The Politics of UN Leadership	联合国领导人政治


NEW DELHI – Election cycles are growing longer worldwide.	新德里——全世界的选举周期都有拉长的趋势。


In the United States, for example, ambitious politicians are already campaigning hard in bellwether states for the 2016 presidential election.	比方说雄心勃勃的美国政治家已经在为2016年总统大选在各主要州展开激烈争夺。


Yet some races – such as that for the next United Nations secretary-general, which will also be held in 2016 – still occur largely under the radar.	但有些竞选——比如将于2016年举行的未来联合国秘书长的竞选——依然静悄悄地不引人注目。


This should change.	这种情况应该发生变化。


A race for UN Secretary-General, which is usually fought so discreetly that it seems almost clandestine, bears little resemblance to the razzmatazz of an American presidential campaign.	联合国秘书长竞选往往低调到令人感到神秘，与美国总统竞选时令人眼花缭乱的景象形成鲜明的对比。


This can be explained largely by the fact that the decision comes down to the 15 members of the Security Council, who select the candidate to be rubber-stamped by the UN General Assembly (as has occurred in every case so far).	个中原因是主要由安理会15国做出决策，他们确定的候选人只需要象征性地提交联大进行批复（至少到目前为止都是如此）。


Crucially, the Security Council’s five permanent members – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the US – have veto power, so a majority means nothing if a single member of the P-5 dissents.	关键是中、法、俄、英、美等安理会五大常任理事国拥有一票否决权，因此只要五巨头中有一个不赞成即使其他国家多数赞成也没有用。


The selection process is constrained further by an informal – but, after 43 years, essentially requisite – agreement to rotate through regions every two terms.	推选过程还需要每两届进行地区轮换，这虽然是一项非正式条件，但43年的具体执行已使其几乎成了必须的要求。


(The only exception was the extremely popular and well-regarded Kofi Annan, who, despite having succeeded another African after one term, was selected for two consecutive terms.)	（唯一的例外是广受欢迎和好评的科菲•安南，虽然在其就任前有位非洲人已经在任一届，但安南仍然实现了两届连任。


With the position having cycled, since 1971, through Western Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia – Ban Ki-moon, the current second-term secretary-general, hails from South Korea – only one UN region has yet to be represented: Eastern Europe.	）1971年来秘书长职务已经在西欧、拉美、非洲和亚洲（目前正履行第二届任期的秘书长潘基文来自韩国）轮换了一遍，只有一个联合国地区尚未选出代表，那就是东欧。


In fact, a number of potential East European candidates have already emerged, with some said to have begun actively soliciting support.	事实上，某些有潜力的东欧候选人已经浮出水面，据说其中有些已开始积极展开竞选活动。


Former Slovenian President Danilo Türk, who served as Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs under Annan, is an early front-runner.	曾在安南手下任政治事务助理秘书长的前斯洛文尼亚总统达尼洛·蒂尔克便是其中的领跑者。


There is also talk of current UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova, who is Bulgarian, and of two Slovaks, Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajčák and his predecessor, Jan Kubiš, entering the race.	也有说法认为现任联合国教科文组织总干事、保加利亚人伊琳娜·博科娃和两名斯洛伐克人——外长米罗斯拉夫·拉查克及前任外长扬·库比什也加入到这场角逐。


Finally, there is Romania’s former foreign minister, Mircea Geoana, who is highly respected among P-5 governments.	最后，还有在五大常任理事国政府颇受尊重的罗马尼亚前外长米尔恰·杰瓦讷。


The fact that all five of these candidates are well known in diplomatic circles, and four have direct UN experience, refutes the old canard that Eastern Europe does not have a credible candidate to offer.	以上五位候选人都在外交界颇有名气，其中四人还曾在联合国直接任职，这使得东欧拿不出可靠候选人的谣言不攻自破。


(Full disclosure: all five are friends of mine, and I consider them highly capable and well suited for the role.)	（深度披露：这五位候选人都是我的朋友，我认为他们完全有能力也非常适合担任这一职务。 ）


But there is a hitch: Eastern Europe must avoid attracting a Russian veto.	但这里有个问题：东欧必须避免刺激俄罗斯投反对票。


Indeed, that may be the main factor derailing the prospects of former Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski.	事实上，这或许是破坏前波兰外长拉德克•西科尔斯基竞选前景的主要因素。


If, as some fear, the Kremlin vetoes all East European candidates, a representative from the Western Europe and Others Group, such as former New Zealand Prime Minister and current UN Under-Secretary-General Helen Clark, could stand a chance, especially given the appeal of finally selecting a woman for the role.	如果真像有些人担心的那样克里姆林宫否决所有的东欧候选人，那么像前新西兰总理兼现任联合国副秘书长海伦·克拉克这样来自西欧和其他团体的代表就可能最终胜出，尤其是考虑到海伦可能是首名女性担任这一职务。


Will the global public get to see much of the race?	全球公众能否亲眼目睹这场角逐？


The 2006 election, in which I finished a close second out of seven candidates, featured an unprecedented level of public exposure, with candidates meeting with UN regional groups, addressing the annual African Union summit, and even participating in a debate on the BBC.	2006年我在7位候选人中以微弱劣势排名第二的那次选举几乎达到了前所未有的公开度，候选人与联合国地区团体会面、在每年一届的非盟首脑会议上讲话，甚至参与了BBC的辩论直播。


Web sites emerged for the sole purpose of analyzing the race.	甚至出现了专门分析竞选形势的网站。


All of this represented an important step forward.	所有这些意味着我们向前迈出了重要的一步。


Given the importance of the UN secretary-general’s vision, candidates should have the opportunity to share their ideas and goals publicly, as I was committed to doing.	鉴于联合国秘书长目标的重要性，候选人应当像我所做的那样公开他们的想法和目标。


Ultimately, however, the public campaign had little impact on the outcome, exemplified in the fact that Ban did not participate in the BBC debate.	然而最终，潘基文并未参加BBC辩论的事实证明公开竞选对结果影响不大。


Though efforts to share one’s vision can win a candidate wide expressions of support, they can do the same for his or her opponents – and, in the election of a UN secretary-general, Security Council members can vote for as many candidates as they like.	虽然分享目标可以为候选人赢得广泛的支持，但竞选对手也是一样——而且在联合国秘书长的选举中，安理会成员国可以想为多少就为多少候选人投票。


This is not to say that the race does not shape the outcome.	这并不是说竞选对结果没有影响。


In 2006, South Korea launched a yearlong, amply-financed outreach campaign that targeted all 15 Security Council members with official visits in their capitals, and that often dangled significant bilateral carrots – gestures that other candidates had neither the time nor the resources to offer.	2006年，韩国发起了一场长达一年且资金充足的宣传活动，包括赴安理会15国首都展开正式访问，并允诺双边利益上的很多甜头——这样的姿态其他候选人既无时间也无资源来提供。


Indeed, South Korea was the only Security Council member country to conduct such a campaign.	事实上，韩国是唯一一个开展竞选活动的安理会成员国。


The obvious conclusion is that the contest for UN Secretary-General is about neither vision nor the best resume, language skills, administrative ability, or even personal charisma.	显而易见的结论是目标或简历、语言能力、行政能力甚至个人魅力都不是联合国秘书长竞选的决定因素。


It is a political decision, made principally by the P-5.	这其实是一项主要由5大常任理事国做出的政治决策。


(It is, after all, unlikely that a candidate would win over the P-5 but fail to win a majority in the Security Council, given the option of casting unlimited votes.)	（毕竟，鉴于投票时没有任何限制，候选人不太可能赢得五大常任理事国的支持而未能在安理会赢得多数票。 ）


The result is that the “least unacceptable” candidate gets the job.	结果是���不能接受程度最低的”候选人最终胜出。


And, as it stands, there is no reason to believe that the advent of social media, satellite television coverage, or a more intrusive press will change that fundamental reality.	而且，现状显示没有理由认为社交媒体、卫星电视覆盖或更具披露性的媒体会改变这一基本状况。


In 2016, the smart money will be on an East European candidate acceptable to the P-5, particularly Russia.	2016年，明智的赌注应当是5大常任理事国、尤其是俄国能够接受的东欧候选人。


How agreement on the candidate will be achieved is anyone’s guess.	所有人都可以猜测如何能就人选达成一致。


What is clear is that any candidate who does not fit that description will enter the race with a crippling, though not necessarily insuperable, handicap.	很显然，任何不符合上述条件的候选人在加入竞选时都将面临障碍，虽然这样的障碍不一定不能克服。


How to Select the Next UN Secretary-General	怎样遴选下任联合国秘书长


OXFORD – When the United Nations elects a new secretary-general next year, the world will face a crucial choice.	牛津—明年，联合国将遴选新秘书长，世界将面临一个关键选择。


With crises erupting in every region of the world, the need for strong, decisive leadership is self-evident.	世界各地区危机频发，我们需要强大而果断的领导层，这是不言自明的。


And yet the selection process for filling important international posts has often been characterized more by political horse-trading than a meritocratic search for the best candidate.	但重要国际职位人选的遴选过程往往更多地是根据政治讨价还价而不是选贤任能。


The tools to improve the process are available, and the time is right to ensure their adoption by the UN and other international organizations.	我们拥有改进遴选过程的工具，确保在联合国及其他国际组织使用这些工具也正逢其时。


A new report by the World Economic Forum and Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government lays out a series of best practices – each one of which has already been implemented by at least one international agency – that can guarantee that leaders are drawn from the most qualified candidates, and that the organizations for which they work are vested with the best possible management practices.	世界经济论坛和牛津大学布拉瓦特尼克政府学院（Blavatnik School of Government）的新报告列出了一系列最佳实践——每一项实践都在至少一家国际机构实施过——它们能够确保最有资格的候选人脱颖而出，并且他们所工作的组织能够执行尽可能优秀的管理实践。


For starters, it is important to professionalize the selection process.	首先，遴选过程专业化很重要。


For too long, backroom deals among governments have taken precedence over searching for a candidate with the relevant skills and experience.	长期以来，政府间的幕后交易一直优先于寻找拥有相关技能和经验的候选人。


When Pascal Lamy, one of the authors of the report, was chosen to become head of the World Trade Organization, there was not even a description of the job against which his qualifications could be measured.	报告作者之一的帕斯卡尔·雷米（Pascal Lemy）曾被选为世界贸易组织总干事，当时，对于他要担任的岗位，甚至连可用于衡量他的资质的岗位描述都没有。


Once a candidate has been chosen, it is important to set clear performance expectations that can be evaluated annually.	当一位候选人被选定时，制定可以按年评估的明确的绩效预期很重要。


Groups like the World Health Organization – which came under fierce criticism during the Ebola crisis – can learn from the 80% of American non-profit boards that have a formal process in place for a yearly evaluation of their CEO.	像世界卫生组织这样的集团——在埃博拉危机中，世卫组织饱受批评——可以像80%的美国非盈利董事会学习，后者有一个正式程序每年对ECO进行评估。


Ethical standards also need to be strengthened.	道德标准也需要加强。


In April, Spanish police questioned Rodrigo Rato, a former managing director of the International Monetary Fund, as part of a corruption probe.	4月，西班牙警方对前国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁罗德里格·拉托（Rodrigo Rato）提起腐败调查质询。


Not long before that, his successor at the IMF, Dominique Strauss Kahn, faced pimping charges in France.	不久前，他在IMF的继任者多米尼克·斯特劳斯·卡恩（Dominique Strauss Kahn）在法国面临拉皮条指控。


Putting in place a code that sets out clear standards for identifying conflicts of interest and robust methods for dealing with complaints about a leader’s behavior is crucial.	另一个关键是制定明确的标准定义利益冲突以及制定强有力的办法处理关于领导人行为的投诉。


In recent years, allegations of improper behavior have led to resignations by the heads of the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN Refugee Agency.	近几年来，IMF、世界银行和国际难民署主管都曾因被控行为失当而辞职。


A leader is only as good as the people who work for him, so organizations must make it a high priority to attract and retain good staff and rid themselves of those who lack professional integrity or competence.	领导人不会比为他工作的人更加优秀，因此组织必须把吸引和留住优秀人才、避开缺乏职业操守或胜任能力者作为重中之重。


Many global agencies are introducing systematic surveys of their employees, but much remains to be improved.	许多国际机构正在引入系统性员工调查，但还需要很大的改进。


Crucially, international organizations must build up the capacity to resist governments’ efforts to protect their underperforming nationals.	关键是，国际组织必须有能力抵制国家政府庇护其表现不佳的国民。


Performance evaluations should be made public, allowing outsiders to measure progress (or the lack thereof).	绩效评估需要公开，让外部人士来衡量进步（或退步）。


Organizations also need to focus more on delivering results and tracking outcomes.	各组织还需要更加专注于结果并进行结果跟踪。


For decades, countries borrowing from the World Bank and regional development banks have begged for the loan process to be expedited; most cannot afford to wait more than two years to find out whether a loan has been approved.	几十年来，从世界银行和地区开发银行贷款的国家苦求加快贷款过程； 大部分国家无法忍受需要等待两年多时间才能获知贷款是否被批准。


Halving the time it takes to approve a loan is the kind of operational goal that a good leader can set, and for which he or she can subsequently be held to account.	将贷款批准时间减少一半是优秀的领导人能够制定的运营目标之一，并且随后可以以此问责领导人。


It is also important to ensure well-structured, systematic engagement with stakeholders and civil-society groups, which is necessary to ensure high-quality and innovative inputs.	同样重要的是确保组织良好的相关利益方和公民社会团体的系统性参与，这是确保高质量和创新性投入的必要条件。


Adopting an ad hoc approach, as many organizations currently do, frequently yields poor results.	许多组织目前采取临时方针（ad hoc approach），常常导致糟糕的结果。


Finally, it is crucial that organizations learn from their mistakes.	最后一个关键是组织需要从错误中汲取教训。


Fortunately, almost all global agencies have instituted processes for independent evaluation.	幸运的是，几乎所有全球性组织都设立了独立评估程序。


Less happily, most are still grappling with how to implement lessons learned.	不幸的是，大部分组织仍没有学会如何实施学到的教训。


Evaluation is important, but it needs to be followed up with strong governance reforms that require leaders to shift incentives and behavior.	评估很重要，但必须继之以强势治理改革，而改革需要领导人改变激励和行为。


Pressure for change is mounting.	变革压力可谓山大。


In November 2014, Avaaz, the United Nations Association, and other NGOs launched a campaign to reform the selection process by which the UN secretary-general is chosen, replacing an opaque process dominated by the permanent members of the Security Council with a transparent one, in which all countries have a say.	2014年11月，Avaaz、联合国协会（United Nations Association）和其他非政府组织发起了一项改革联合国秘书长遴选过程的运动，用让所有国家都拥有发言权的透明过程代替由联合国常任理事国主宰的不透明过程。


Among their demands are a clear job description for the role, public scrutiny of candidates, and a shortlist with more than one candidate.	它们的要求包括对秘书长一职做出明确的职位描述、公开监督候选人以及多于一人的最终候选人名单。


Progress is being made in some agencies.	一些机构正在出现进步。


The UN High Commission for Refugees now describes its objectives in its Global Strategic Priorities and evaluates progress toward them annually.	如今，联合国难民署（UN High Commission for Refugees）在其全球战略重点（Global Strategic Priorities）中描述了它的目标，并每年评估目标进展情况。


And all senior UN officials must file an annual financial-disclosure statement with the organization’s ethics office.	此外，所有联合国高级官员都必须向组织的风纪办公室披露年度财务报表。


One notably successful agency in this regard is the African Development Bank (AfDB), which has introduced an organization-wide whistle-blowing policy, an anti-corruption and fraud framework, and an office to investigate disclosures.	在这方面，一个取得显著成功的机构时非洲开发银行（非开行），它引入了一项全组织适用的揭发政策、一套反腐败和欺诈框架，以及一个调查披露办公室。


The AfDB will choose a new president in May, and it has not only defined the job clearly; it has also identified eight candidates and asked each to set out their strategy in advance of the election.	非开行将在5月遴选新行长，它不但明确定义了这个岗位； 还确定了八名候选人并要求每人在选举之前提出他们的战略。


The world relies on international organizations to coordinate the global response to a host of critical threats, from pandemics to financial crises.	世界需要依靠国际组织协调应对从传染病到金融危机的一系列关键威胁的全球响应。


An effective UN leader needs to be able to persuade member states to cooperate, manage the organization well, and deliver results.	高效的联合国领导人需要能够说服成员国进行合作、良好地管理该组织，并取得结果。


Without good leadership, any organization – even the UN – is destined to fail.	没有优秀的领导，任何组织——哪怕是联合国——都注定要失败。


The Security Council’s Credibility Test	安理会的信誉测试


CANBERRA – The United Nations Security Council’s membership will be reconstituted in 2015, but it will not look very different from its predecessors.	堪培拉——联合国安理会成员国将于2015年举行重组，但此次重组不会有什么明显动作。


World War II’s victors – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China – will continue to hold the box seats, which come with veto power.	美、英、法、俄、中等二战战胜国将继续拥有包厢席位并掌握否决权。


Five new non-permanent members – New Zealand, Spain, Angola, Malaysia, and Venezuela – will rotate in for a two-year term, replacing Australia, Luxembourg, Rwanda, South Korea, and Argentina, respectively.	而新西兰、西班牙、安哥拉、马来西亚和委内瑞拉等五个新的非常任理事国将依据两年轮换制分别顶替澳大利亚、卢森堡、卢旺达、韩国和阿根廷的席位。


The remaining five bleacher seats will be occupied for another year by Chad, Chile, Jordan, Lithuania, and Nigeria.	其余五个看台席位下一年将继续由乍得、智利、约旦、立陶宛和尼日利亚占据。


Aside from Nigeria, none of the twenty-first century’s other major players – including Brazil, Germany, India, Japan, and South Africa – will have a ticket.	除尼日利亚外，包括巴西、德国、印度、日本和韩国在内的二十一世纪的其他主要力量没有一个能够进入安理会。


All efforts to reform the Security Council’s structure – even an end to prohibiting immediate re-election of non-permanent members, which would enable continuous engagement, if not formal permanent membership – have ground to a halt.	所有安理会结构改革努力全都陷于停滞，就连禁止非常任理事国任满后立即改选，从而使连任成为可能（如果不是成为正式常任理事国）的改革也未能例外。


Reconstructing the Security Council to ensure that the most influential powers always have a seat at the table is not the most urgent reform, but it remains one of the most important.	重建安理会以确保最有影响力的大国始终占据一席之地并非最急迫的改革，但却仍然是最重要的改革之一。


The Council’s institutional legitimacy as the world’s foremost decision-maker on issues of peace and security cannot be taken for granted.	安理会作为最重要的决策者在和平安全问题上的体制合法性不能被视为理所当然。


If the Council continues to look the way it does, it is only a matter of time – maybe another 15 years at best – before its credibility and authority for most of the world diminish to dangerous levels.	如果安理会继续我行我素，那么其在世界多数国家眼中的公信力和权威性降低到危险的程度就仅仅是个时间问题（最多可能还需要15年）。


The immediate task is to find other ways to boost the Security Council’s global standing.	寻找其他方式来提高安理会的全球地位是迫在眉睫的任务。


The challenges that the Council faces today are as acute as they have ever been.	安理会今天面临着有史以来最为紧迫的挑战。


More crises have been erupting in more places, more breaches of international humanitarian and human rights law have been occurring, and more people have been displaced by conflict than has been the case for decades.	更多地方爆发了更多危机、更多违反国际人道主义和人权法的情况出现、越来越多的人因冲突流离失所的情况已经持续了几十年。


In responding to these challenges, the Security Council’s record has not been all bad.	安理会应对这些挑战的过往记录并非一无是处。


It did well to force Syria to give up its chemical weapons, and to authorize humanitarian access without the regime’s consent.	它迫使叙利亚放弃化学武器，并在没有征得叙政权同意的情况下授权开展人道主义行动。


It has authorized more peacekeepers in the field, with more robust civilian-protection mandates, than ever before.	它授权派遣有史以来最多的维和人员，并授权开展更有效的民众保护行动。


It has also maintained some effective sanctions regimes, and referred some cases to the International Criminal Court.	它还保留了一些有效的制裁机制，并将一些案例移交给国际刑事法院。


It stopped an imminent massacre in Libya in 2011 by agreeing (at least at the outset) that the internationally agreed “responsibility to protect” justified military action.	安理会2011年阻止了利比亚迫在眉睫的屠杀，（至少在开始时）一致认同为维护国际商定的“保护责任”有理由采取军事行动。


It responded decisively to the Ebola crisis, and has passed some important counter-terrorism resolutions.	它果断地应对埃博拉危机，并且通过了某些重要的反恐决议案。


And it has been getting better at consulting more widely and debating issues more openly.	安理会在广泛征询意见和公开辩论方面也已经有所改进。


And yet, human security issues are overwhelming large swaths of Africa and western Asia.	但安全问题仍然在非洲和西亚大部分地区显得异常紧迫。


Too often the Security Council goes missing on the world’s most serious security and human rights problems, constrained by Realpolitik, out-of-date thinking, timidity, institutional limitations, or inadequate resources.	安理会往往受制于现实政治、过时的想法、胆怯、体制局限或资源不足而对全世界最严重的安全和人权问题视而不见。


In the most alarming recent crises – Ukraine, Gaza, Syria, and Iraq – it has been almost totally paralyzed.	在乌克兰、加沙、叙利亚和伊拉克等最新也最令人震惊的危机中，安理会几乎完全陷于瘫痪。


To restore and enhance the Security Council’s credibility, the focus for now should be on changes that require no amendment of the UN Charter.	为恢复和提高安理会的信誉，现在的当务之急是在无需修改联合国宪章的前提下做出改变。


A good starting point would be to apply existing best practice more often, making exceptional cases the norm.	更频繁地运用现有的最佳做法、使特殊情况成为常态应当是不错的起点。


The Council can deliver results, as it showed with Syria’s chemical arsenal, when it establishes clear benchmarks, explicit timelines, active monitoring mechanisms, regular reporting processes, and consequences for non-compliance.	只要设立明确的标准、明确的时限、积极的监督机制、常规的汇报程序和违反规则的惩戒措施，安理会就能像应对叙利亚化武事件那样取得成果。


The Council needs to devote less rhetoric and more formal process to conflict and crisis prevention, with improved early-warning and briefing mechanisms.	安理会要做的是少说空话，制定更多正式程序防止危机和冲突并改进早期预警和通报机制。


It needs to acknowledge that anticipating and responding to major human-rights violations are part of its core business.	它必须承认预测和应对重大的侵犯人权事件是它的核心任务。


It should encourage the UN’s secretary-general to be less nervous about using his formidable authority under Article 99 of the Charter to bring matters to the Council’s attention on his own.	它应当鼓励联合国秘书长不要过于担心动用宪章第99条赋予的重大权力，凭借一己之力让安理会关注相关事务。


There is a desperate need to re-establish consensus on how to address atrocity crimes so extreme that they may require a military response.	目前迫切需要就如何应对需要军事介入的极端暴力犯罪重建共识。


Efforts must be made to overcome the bitterness still felt toward the US, the UK, and France – which explains much of the paralysis over Syria – for their perceived expansion, without going back to the Security Council, of a narrow civilian-protection mandate in Libya to include full-scale regime change.	必须消除对美、英、法等国脱离安理会自行其是的扩张行为的仇恨情绪（正是上述情绪导致叙利亚行动陷于瘫痪），此外上述国家还在利比亚狭隘的平民保护��权中加入了全面的政权更迭。


The solution seems to lie in some variation on the “Responsibility while Protecting” idea first proposed by Brazil (with China and Russia privately showing some sympathy), which would require some form of ongoing monitoring and review of military mandates.	解决之道似乎在某种程度上有赖于巴西首先提出的“负责任地保护”概念（中国和俄国对此私下表示支持），“负责任地保护”要求对军事行动进行某种形式的持续监控和审核。


France has proposed a truly transformative change: The Security Council’s permanent members would forswear using their veto in cases of mass-atrocity crimes certified as such by the Secretary-General or by some other acceptable process, at least where no vital national interests are at stake.	法国已提出一项真正的转型性改革：安理会常任理事国承诺至少在不涉及重大国家利益的前提下，在被秘书长或其他可接受程序认定为大规模暴行的犯罪事件中放弃使用否决权。


But getting there will be tough.	但实现这一目标将会非常艰难。


Though the UK has said that the proposal should be considered, Russia is openly opposed.	虽然英国认为这项提案理应得到考虑，但俄罗斯却公开表达反对意见。


Meanwhile, the US is quietly uncomfortable, and China, too, has remained silent.	此外，美国同样在暗中作梗，而中国也一直沉默不言。


These reactions are a reminder that the biggest changes that the Security Council needs are to the mindset of its permanent members.	上述举措提醒人们安理会最需要改变的是其常任理事国的心态。 他们必须记住面临的全球责任多么艰巨；


They need to remember that their global responsibilities are formidable; their overwhelming obligation is to find cooperative common ground; and there is limited tolerance for the naked pursuit of narrow self-interest.	他们最大的任务是找到合作共同点； 国际社会不能容忍赤裸裸地追逐狭隘的自我利益。


If they do not raise their game, the Council’s global authority will wane, and it will face the real possibility of sliding back to the marginalized impotence of the Cold War years.	如果他们不尽快改进，安理会的全球权威将逐渐涣散，它将真正有可能再次蜕变为冷战时期边缘化的无能机构。


Unsettling America	兴风作浪的美国


LONDON – Is there more to be said about Egypt?	发自伦敦——对埃及还有什么好说的？


Hosni Mubarak has been sacrificed to save the military regime.	牺牲了一个胡斯尼·穆巴拉克，却保全了整个军人政权。


A “strongman” who cannot keep order in the streets is of no use to anyone.	一个无力维持街头秩序的“强人”早就没什么利用价值了。


Whether “democracy” will ensue is much more dubious.	接着能否实现“民主”也还是未知之数。


Judging on the basis of Pakistan, and much of the rest of the Muslim world, periods of (corrupt) civilian rule will alternate with “cleansing” military coups.	照巴基斯坦（以及大多数穆斯林国家）的情况判断，“廉洁”的军政府将取代（腐败）的文官统治。


I doubt that most Egyptians put what we call democracy at the top of their political agenda.	我怀疑大部分埃及人根本没把西方所谓的民主放在政治议程的首位。


Journalists who claim otherwise are not a representative sample, even in Western countries.	甚至连那些大谈民主的记者们也算不上其中的代表（即便是在西方国家）。


They are a restless breed, flitting round the world’s trouble spots, pen and camera poised.	他们就是一群焦躁不安的蚊虫，拿着纸笔和相机围着全世界的危机地区嗡嗡乱飞。


Freedom of expression is in their bones; mass protests their visual lifeblood.	言论自由就是他们的骨髓，大规模抗议就是他们的命根子。


They try to report the world as it is, but theirs is not the world of most people – their business depends on the disruption of “ordinary” business, so they systematically underestimate people’s desire for law and order (or at least order).	这些人想要真实地报道这个世界，只可惜他们眼中的世界却与普通人风马牛不相及——记者们的生计要靠打乱“正常”生活来维系，因此他们常常刻意低估人们对法律和秩序（或者仅仅是秩序）的渴望。


Most people, it seems, will tolerate a modest amount of political repression, including secret police, torture, and corruption, if it delivers security and a modicum of prosperity and fairness.	其实大多数人都能忍受相当程度的政治压迫，比如秘密警察，严刑拷打和贪污腐败，只要这个政府能提供安全和一点点的繁荣和公平就行了。


Otherwise, there is no explanation for the longevity of dictatorships such as Mubarak’s 30-year rule.	否则无法解释穆巴拉克的独裁统治为何能坚持30年之久。


Likewise, in the referendum that ended his 16-year rule in Chile in 1990, General Augusto Pinochet, with thousands of tortured and vanished victims in his grisly cupboard, ran on a law-and-order platform and received 44% of the vote.	同理，在终结了智利军事强人奥古斯托·皮诺切特16年统治的1990年公投中，即便皮氏手中握着数千条惨遭折磨和杀害的冤魂，却依然凭着一套鼓吹法律与秩序的纲领赢得了44%的赞成票。


Most Western leaders think naturally in terms of a “transition to democracy.” This is what they want to happen in Egypt, hoping that democracy will not jeopardize Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.	大多数西方领导人想当然地认为这场革命是“向民主过渡”，他们希望在在埃及看到这一幕，同时也寄望民主制度不会危及到埃及与以色列的和平协议。


But Western democracies’ combination of freedom and order – the West’s most precious gift to the world – is the product of a long history that cannot be replicated in short order.	但西方民主中自由与秩序的结合——西方献给世界的最珍贵礼物——是漫长历史演变的产物，也是无法在短期内轻易复制的。


Non-Western political systems are typically archaic: good rulers can sleep soundly at night, while bad rulers face continual danger of overthrow from the army or the streets.	非西方的政治系统其实还是老一套：好的统治者可以高枕无忧，而坏统治者却随时可能被军队或民众推翻。


Most non-Western peoples rely upon the ruler’s personal virtues, not institutional limits on his power, to make their lives tolerable.	大多数非西方民众都把生活的希望寄托在统治者的个人品质上，而是不是用制度来限制他的权力。


We interpret as striving for democracy what is really the traditional way of getting rid of bad rulers.	我们所谓的民主抗争其实只不过是他们更换坏统治者的传统方式而已。


Yet all of this leaves out the possibility of change, particularly change influenced by the United States’ unsettling role in the world.	但这一切毕竟带来了变革的可能性，尤其是在美国这个世界混局者的影响下变革的可能性。


The idea that the US is a status quo power is a delusion of international-relations experts. In the short run, of course, the US behaves like an ordinary power.	国际关系专家那种认为美国是个强权国家的见解根本就是个谬论。


It has interests to protect, and this often requires supporting unsavory regimes. But America’s long-term project is to remake the world in its image.	当然在短期内美国就跟其他强权国家一样，它需要维护自身利益，也常常要支持某些臭名昭著的政权，但美国的长期目标则是按照自己的想法去重塑这个世界。


Where America has room for maneuver, it always presses forward in this direction.	只要是美国能插手的地方，它都会朝着自身愿景而努力。


And, despite the rise of China and the move to a more “plural” international system, the US still has the power to change “facts on the ground” in large parts of the world, particularly the Middle East.	而尽管面对着中国崛起和越来越“多元”的国际体制，美国依然有能力去改变世界大多数地区的“现状”，尤其是中东地区。


Experts have always underestimated the expansionary character of American foreign policy, because they think of expansion in old-world terms: conquest, imperialism, and colonialism.	专家们经常会低估美国外交政策的扩张特性，因为他们惯于用旧世界的过时词汇——征服，帝国主义和殖民主义——来理解扩张这个词。


The US does not seek to create an empire in the old sense: America pursues an imperialism of the values that it holds dear.	事实上美国并未试图建立一个传统意义上的帝国：美国是想将它所珍视的价值观强加给全世界。


If all countries have the same values, traditional imperialism becomes obsolete.	如果所有国家都拥有相同的价值观，传统的帝国主义就不合时宜了。


Though it clearly lacks the power to impose its values by force, the US certainly has the power to unsettle established conditions, both through the attraction of its “soft power” (the American way of life) and by the exemplary use of force.	虽然美国缺乏足够的武力去将这种价值观强加于人，但它显然有能力去打破那些已经固化的状况，一方面利用“软实力”（美式生活方式）的吸引力，另一方面也通过对武力的杰出运用。


I was one of those who opposed the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.	当年我是反对美国2003年入侵伊拉克的那群人之一。


Now I wonder whether I was right.	如今我怀疑自己是否错了。


Parts of the invasion and occupation were certainly badly mishandled by the US, leading to a much greater loss of life than was necessary.	一部分入侵和占领行动显然被美国搞砸了，并因此导致了过多的伤亡。


But, taking the long view, can anyone doubt that the invasion had the effect of shaking up the pieces, not just in Iraq, but across the Islamic chessboard?	但长远来看，谁能否认这场入侵其实动摇了中东（而不仅仅是伊拉克）这块大棋盘？


That is why I am not at all sure that the street uprisings in Egypt, following those in Tunisia, and now spreading to other Muslim-majority countries, can be interpreted simply as traditional forms of protest against bad rulers.	这也是我如此怀疑埃及这场发端于突尼斯，��今又扩散到其他穆斯林国家的街头起义是否能简单地被解读为反对坏统治者的传统示威形式。


Throughout the Muslim world, there is a sense of enlarged possibilities, especially among the young: more than half of Egypt’s 80 million people are under 25.	整个穆斯林世界都充斥着某种感觉，认为事态还有继续扩大的可能性，尤其是在那些年轻人当中（埃及8000万人口中的大半数都在25岁以下）。


Surely, this sentiment can be traced back to the US invasion and forcible overthrow of Saddam Hussein.	当然这种感觉的来源可以追溯到美国入侵并暴力推翻萨达姆·侯赛因的往事。


In his great verse drama Faust, Goethe has God send humanity the Devil (Mephistopheles) in order to stir things up.	在著名戏剧《浮士德》中，歌德让神将恶魔（墨菲斯托，意为诱惑者）派往人间，振奋精神。


His intention is quite clear: “Man’s active nature, flagging, seeks too soon the level; Unqualified repose he learns to crave, Whence, willingly, the comrade him I gave, Who works, excites, and must create, as Devil.”	他的意图相当明确：“人们的精神总是易于弛靡，动辄贪爱着绝对的安静； 我因此创造出恶魔，以激发人们的努力为能。


Mephistopheles is rather a joker. So is America, always stirring sleepy societies out of their torpor – a role begun when Commodore Matthew Perry “opened up” Japan in 1854.	因此墨菲斯托更像是个小丑，美国也一样，经常把那些昏昏欲睡的社会撩拨起来——这一角色从舰队司令马修·佩里(Matthew Perry)于1854年打开日本门户时就开始扮演了。


If we want to hold fast to any vision of progress, this is an indispensable role, and only America can play it today.	如果我们依然抱有任何追求进步的梦想，这就是个不可或缺的角色，而且当今世界只有美国能扮演之。


With China, like seeks to talk to like. With America, like deliberately engages with unlike, and tries to infuse it with some of its vigor.	中国人只愿意和那些持有相同观点的势力对话，但美国却喜欢接近那些不同意它的人，并用自身的活力去感染之。


True, America’s intervention in the Middle East also strengthened extremist Islam, breeding on the resentment that the US presence arouses.	没错，美国对中东地区的干涉同时也助长了伊斯兰极端势力，因为他们借着民众对美国存在的不满而不断发展壮大。


But, taking the long view, the future surely does not lie with organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood.	但长远看来，未来是不会眷顾穆斯林兄弟会这些组织的。


The religious demon is a far less appealing devil than Uncle Sam.	宗教这个魔鬼比山姆大叔的吸引力要小得多。


Sooner or later, the Brothers will suffer the fate of all bad devils.	而这些“兄弟们”迟早会面对和所有恶魔同样的命运。


Unsustainable Development Goals?	不可持续的发展目标


OXFORD – From 2000 to 2015, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) focused minds and budgets on global poverty, significantly boosting people’s prospects in some of the world’s poorest countries.	牛津——从2000到2015年，千年发展目标（MDG）将关注的重点聚焦于全球贫困预算，从而显著提升了世界某些最贫困国家民众的前途。


The new set of global targets, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), aim to build on that progress, not only in eradicating poverty, but also in addressing a number of other challenges, such as broadening access to education and protecting the environment.	而可持续发展目标（SDG）这一新的全球目标系列旨在在已有基础上进一步取得进展，不仅消除贫困，而且还解决其他某些挑战，比如扩大教育机会和保护环境。


But, this time, there are significant headwinds.	但这一次却遇到了显著的阻力。


Recent geopolitical developments, such as the Middle East’s refugee crisis, are complicating government budgets and agendas.	近期的地缘政治发展，比如中东难民危机，正在为政府预算和议程增加难度。


And commodity prices and emerging-economy investments, factors that bolstered progress toward achieving the MDGs, are now slumping.	而商品价格和新兴经济体的投资正在下滑，而这些投资是能够带动千年发展目标取得进展的因素。


Without bold innovation, the new development agenda will be far from sustainable.	如果没有大胆的创新，新的发展议程恐怕远远不可持续。


As it stands, aid budgets from major donors are being surreptitiously redeployed.	现实情况是，主要捐助国的援助预算正在被暗中重新部署。


In most major donor countries, aid is being redirected to stem the flow of refugees from the Middle East, especially Syria.	在绝大多数主要捐助国，援助款项正在被转而用于阻止中东难民、尤其是叙利亚难民的流入。


The refugee crisis has also changed domestic priorities.	难民危机改变了国内政策重点。


In Sweden, some 30% of the aid budget is now being used to look after arriving refugees; in Switzerland, the comparable figure is 20%.	在瑞典，约30%的援助预算现在被用于照料不断涌入的难民； 而在瑞士，上述可比数字是20%。


Other aid funds among the major donors are being redeployed for security, allotted to climate-change adaptation and mitigation, and pledged for other national goals.	主要捐助国间的其他援助款项正在被重新划拨到安全、气候变化的适应和减缓以及所承诺的其他国家目标领域。


In the United Kingdom, for example, a shift toward allocating resources to priorities more clearly “in the national interest” was spelled out in a new aid strategy in 2015.	比如在英国，2015年一份新援助战略明确阐述了要将资源分配的重点转向更明确“符合国家利益”的领域。


As for emerging economies, new aid flows do not look as promising as they did five years ago.	对于新兴经济体而言，新的援助资金并不像5年前那样展现出好的趋势。


By one estimate, Chinese aid rose from $630 million in 2000 to $14.4 billion in the period 2010-2012.	据估计，中国的援助从2000年的6亿3000万美元增长到2010至2012年的144亿美元。


But the country’s ongoing economic slowdown probably augurs a decelerating growth in aid budgets.	但该国持续的经济增长放缓极有可能预示着援助预算增长的减速。


And other emerging economies are not likely to pick up the slack.	而其他新兴经济体也不太可能对此加以弥补。


Brazil, touted in 2010 as an “emerging aid player,” is now in economic and political crisis, as is South Africa.	曾在2010年被奉为“新兴援助国”的巴西现在正在经历一场经济和政治危机，而另一个新兴经济体南非也同样如此。


These challenges are being compounded for developing countries by new financial regulations in the advanced countries that are hampering flows of investment and finance to the developing world.	发达国家制定新的金融法规阻碍投资和金融流向发展中世界更是加剧了这些难题。


Weakening developing-economy incomes further is a global demand slowdown and commodities crash, which, as Nobel laureate Angus Deaton has demonstrated, has been disastrous for most of the developing world.	进一步削弱发展中国家的收入导致全球需求放缓及商品价格暴跌，诺贝尔经济学奖得主安格斯·迪顿已经证明这在多数发展中国家造成了灾难性的后果。


To cap it all off, the expansionary monetary policies adopted by major economies are fueling instability.	总体而言，主要经济体采取的扩张性货币政策正在助长不稳定。


In this difficult context, achieving the SDGs – which would be ambitious even in the best of times – will require monumental effort.	在如此困难的环境下，实现可持续发展目标（即使在最好的时候这也是个雄心勃勃的理想）需要付出巨大的努力。


To maximize the chances of success will require, first and foremost, that every dollar channeled toward development is used as efficiently as possible.	为了尽最大可能取得成功，首先流向发展项目的每一分钱都要尽可能发挥出最大的效益。


This means rethinking the way aid is delivered and asking hard questions to the elaborate web of international agencies that deliver it, not least about the cost-effectiveness of their operations.	这意味着重新思考援助的发放方式，向负责发放工作的庞大的国际机构提出切中时弊的问题，包括涉及运营的成本效益方面。


Consider the World Food Program, which announced in July 2015 that it had no choice but to reduce aid to Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon – a move that risked leaving 440,000 refugees without food, thereby spurring yet more perilous voyages across the Mediterranean.	以世界粮食计划署为例，该机构于2015年7月宣布它别无选择只能削减对约旦和黎巴嫩境内叙利亚难民的援助——该措施有可能导致440,000名难民断绝口粮，从而促使更多人踏上横渡地中海的危险之旅。


This decision partly reflects inadequate aid flows; but it may also be rooted in the costs of the WFP’s own operations.	上述决策部分反映了援助资金不足； 但也不能排除粮食计划署本身运营成本的因素。


An OECD review of the WFP points to the “high cost of logistics,” as well as “issues in using international tenders,” as a problem affecting efficiency.	经合组织对世界粮食计划署的一份审查指出其“物流成本很高”，以及存在“国际招标使用方面的问题”，并认为这是影响其效率发挥的因素。


While nobody has offered a straightforward value-for-money comparison between the WFP and other providers of relief, some organizations are highly efficient.	虽然没有人对世界粮食计划署及其他救济机构对资金的利用价值直接进行过对比，但的确存在着某些非常高效的救济机构。


BRAC, a Bangladeshi development organization known as the “world’s largest NGO,” seems able to deliver aid for a fraction of the cost of Western-dominated international organizations.	其中被誉为“世界最大非政府组织”的孟加拉发展机构BRAC似乎能用占西方主导国际机构很小一部分的成本来发放援助。


As the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development pointed out in making its case for a strategic partnership with the organization, BRAC innovates in order to respond more effectively to the specific needs of the poor.	英国国际发展部在说明机构战略伙伴关系的作用时指出，BRAC积极创新以便更有效地适应贫��人口的具体需求。


For example, it pioneered the use of mobile-phone technology in health care, and championed the provision of cash (or income-generating assets) to those in extreme poverty.	例如，它率先在医疗保健中使用移动电话技术，并倡导将现金（或能带来收入的资产）提供给极端贫困的民众。


Cash transfers are an interesting case.	现金转移的案例非常有趣。


The idea of giving money to the neediest is an obvious and powerful one.	将现金提供给最需要的人显而易见非常有效。


But it has long run up against a Victorian belief that the poor are improvident and likely to waste money on alcohol, tobacco, and gambling.	但这种做法却遭到维多利亚时期理念的反对，他们认为穷人缺乏远见，可能将钱用于烟、酒和赌博。


Yet that is not what happened in Mexico, when poor families received cash transfers.	但墨西哥贫困家庭收到现金转账时却没有出现这种情况。


Instead, their children ended up as well nourished and healthy as those on a food program that cost 20% more to administer.	相反，上述贫困家庭子女的营养和健康状况甚至可以媲美管理开销高20%的食品项目。


Similar results have been shown in Ecuador, India, and Uganda, as well as in international humanitarian relief programs.	厄瓜多尔、印度和乌干达也已经出现了类似的结果，情况与此相似的还有国际人道主义救济计划。


And a study in Zimbabwe showed that, as the poor use their newly acquired cash to purchase goods and services from others in their community, they also generate more income for others.	而津巴布韦的一项研究表明因为穷人用新得到的现金从所处社区的其他人那里购买商品和服务，其他人的收入也因此提高。


Of course, not all aid can be replaced with cash transfers.	当然，现金转移并不能替代所有的援助项目。


But in some cases, such an approach offers the opportunity for huge efficiency gains relative to aid delivered through complex and costly institutions.	但在某些情况下，通过复杂且昂贵的机构系统发放援助的效率能因为这种做法而大幅提高。


Imagine eliminating the costs of designing elaborate programs, conditions, monitoring systems, and training schemes for the poor.	试想一下消除那些精心设计的复杂程序、条件、监管系统和穷人培训计划的高昂成本。


Imagine a WFP that is no longer arranging the logistics, procurement, storage, and distribution of 3.2 million metric tons of food, and taking 120 days to obtain and move food to recipient countries.	试想一下世界粮食计划署不再安排320万吨粮食的物流、采购、仓储和发放，之后耗费120天将粮食筹集并运送至接收国。


The WFP reports that it is increasing its use of cash and voucher transfers.	世界粮食计划署报告说它正在扩大使用现金和转账凭证。


Perhaps it should be pressed to justify doing anything else, and its administrative costs for delivering cash should be compared to those of BRAC.	或许应当对其施压让其为采用其他方式作出解释，并且其现金交付的管理费用应当和BRAC差不多。


In a challenging global economic and geopolitical environment, achieving the SDGs will be possible only if we make the most of every multilateral development dollar.	在目前困难重重的全球经济及地缘政治环境下，只有充分发挥每一美元多边发展资金的作用才有可能实现可持续发展目标。


And that may mean giving many more dollars directly to those who need them.	而这可能意味着我们要把更多的美元直接送到需要它们的人手中。


Women’s Rights and Customary Wrongs	妇女权利和习惯错误


SEATTLE – One of the greatest challenges facing women in much of the world is the gap between their legal rights and their ability as individuals to claim them.	西雅图——合法权利和切实享受合法权利之间的差距是世界多数地区妇女所面临的最大挑战。


National constitutions are increasingly likely to guarantee gender equality, but many also recognize the authority of parallel legal systems based on custom, religion, or ethnic affiliation.	国家宪法越来越有可能保障男女平等，但许多人也承认以习俗、宗教或民族关系为基础的平行法律体系更具权威。


And, unfortunately, law in many parts of the world has not kept up with changing times.	不幸的是，世界许多地区的法律并没有跟上时代的变化。


Fortunately, international human-rights bodies are taking notice of the gap.	幸运的是，国际人权机构正在关注上述差距。


In 1999 and 2000, two young Tanzanian tailors, married in their teens and widowed in their twenties with four children between them, were dispossessed of their homes under their ethnic group’s customary laws of inheritance.	1999和2000年，两位少女时代结婚、二十多岁守寡、育有四名子女的年轻的坦桑尼亚裁缝按照民族惯例的继承法被剥夺了房屋继承权。


Those customary laws give male relatives a greater claim to the deceased’s possessions than female members of his family, and typically bar wives altogether and give short shrift to daughters.	上述惯例法规定男性亲属比女性家庭成员对死者财产享有更大的继承权，并且一般完全否认妻子并基本忽视女儿的继承权。


In both of the Tanzanian cases, local courts ruled that the property the woman had shared with her husband, including items that had been purchased with proceeds from her labor, should go to her brother-in-law.	在这两起坦桑尼亚案件中，当地法院均裁定妇女与丈夫的共同财产所有权应归小叔所有，其中也包括用她的劳动所得购买的财产。


The young widowed tailors were left homeless with their children, but they refused to accept their dispossession.	年轻的守寡裁缝们带着孩子无家可归，但她们拒绝接受剥夺她们的财产。


With the help of Tanzania’s Women’s Legal Aid Center and Georgetown University’s International Women’s Human Rights Clinic – which I previously directed – they challenged the decision in the High Court of Tanzania.	在坦桑尼亚妇女法律援助中心和我曾经管理的乔治敦大学国际妇女人权诊所协助下，她们挑战了坦桑尼亚高等法院做出的裁决。


In 2006, the High Court concluded that customary laws on inheritance were “discriminatory in more ways than one,” but it refused to overturn them.	2006年，高等法院认定惯例继承法“在不止一个方面带有歧视性”，但却拒绝推翻它。


The court likened doing so to “opening a Pandora’s box, with all the seemingly discriminative customs from our 120 tribes” vulnerable to legal challenge.	法院将此比作“打开潘多拉的盒子，导致120个部落所有看似具有歧视性的惯例”都有可能面临法律的挑战。


The women ultimately took their case to the United Nations (UN), where they have now struck a historic victory for equality for millions of women around the world.	两名妇女最终将案件呈递到联合国，并为全世界成百上千万女性平等赢得了历史性胜利。


Tanzania is a party to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) and its protocol. That allowed the two women to take their complaint to the committee that oversees states’ compliance with the treaty’s implementation.	坦桑尼亚是《消除对妇女一切形式歧视公约》（CEDAW）及其协议的缔约国，两名妇女因此可以向负责监督国家执行状况的委员会进行投诉。


On March 15, the UN committee declared that Tanzania had violated its international human-rights obligations.	3月15日，联合国委员会宣布坦桑尼亚违反了国际人权义务。


“The right of women to own, manage, enjoy, and dispose of property,” the committee ruled, “is central to their financial independence and may be critical to their ability to earn a livelihood and to provide adequate housing and nutrition for themselves and for their children.”	“妇女拥有、管理、享受及处置财产的权利，”该委员会判决书写道，“是她们经济独立的核心，可能决定她们能否自主谋生，并为其自身及子女提供足够的住房和营养。 ”


The committee asserted that, in order to comply with the treaty’s human rights mandate, Tanzania would have to repeal and amend customary inheritance laws that discriminate against women.	委员会称为履行条约人权义务，坦桑尼亚必须对歧视妇女的惯例继承法予以废除和修改。


It also recommended that the country educate women about their rights under CEDAW and train judges, lawyers, local authorities, and traditional leaders in order to build support for removing discriminatory practices from customary law.	委员会还建议该国面向妇女展开《消除对妇女一切形式歧视公约》的权利教育，并培训法官、律师、地方当局和传统领袖为废除惯例法中的歧视性做法争取支持。


The government of Tanzania has until September to respond to the ruling.	坦桑尼亚政府必须在九月前明确表态。


The decision could have a huge impact, for the problem the Tanzanian case exposed is all too common in many parts of Africa and Asia.	该判决可能会带来巨���影响，因为坦桑尼亚案所暴露的问题在非洲和亚洲的许多地区都普遍存在。


India, for example, enacted legislation ten years ago to provide sons and daughters with equal claim to inherit family land in most situations.	举例来说，印度在十年前就已颁布立法，规定在多数情况下儿子和女儿拥有对家庭土地同等的继承权。


And yet a survey of women in three rural Indian states by the international land-rights NGO Landesa found that two-thirds did not know of any woman who had inherited land from her parents.	但一份对印度三个农业省妇女的调查显示其中三分之二不知道有任何一位女性从父母那里获得了土地继承权。


One in four did not know that they had a right to inherit family land.	四分之一的人不知道她们有权继承家庭土地。


There is much more at stake in inheritance rights than who gets the house, the car, and the sewing machine.	继承权的意义远不止谁能拿到房、车和缝纫机的所有权。


Research shows that women’s rights to own and inherit property, including land, are critical to breaking the cycle of poverty.	研究表明，妇女拥有和继承财产（包括土地）的权利决定了能否打破贫困循环。


A study in Tanzania, for example, found that women earned near four times more in areas with strong women’s land rights.	比方说，坦桑尼亚一项研究发现尊重女性地权的地区女性收入是对照组的四倍。


And a study in Nepal found that children whose mothers owned land were 33% less likely to be malnourished.	同时尼泊尔的一项研究表明母亲拥有地权的子女相比对照组营养不良率低33%。


The benefits are much more than economic: In India, women with secure rights to land were found to be eight times less likely to suffer domestic abuse.	妇女拥有土地的收益远非经济利益所能局限：在印度， 研究发现握有地权的女性遭受家庭暴力的可能性比对照组低8倍。


The UN ruling has buoyed the hopes of women worldwide that their countries will be forced to address the injustices that may be found in some customary law and where bias hinders implementation of progressive legislation.	联合国裁决支撑了各国妇女要求所在国解决某些惯例法不公、消除阻碍进步立法实施偏见的希望。


Legislators in South Africa and Kenya have been grappling with the issue.	南非和肯尼亚的立法者一直为解决上述问题而竭尽全力。


Tanzania and countries in similar situations must demonstrate their commitment to women’s rights by eliminating systematic discrimination.	坦桑尼亚和情况类似的国家必须通过消除系统性歧视来证明他们致力于实现妇女权利。


When they do, the two widows’ story will end on a note of empowerment not just for them, but for women and communities everywhere.	果真如此，两位寡妇的故事将不再重演，这对她们和全世界女性及社团来说都是一种授权。


Colombia’s “Brexit”	哥伦比亚的“英国退欧”


CARTAGENA – Peacemaking is always a divisive enterprise – so divisive, in fact, that it is often thwarted by politics within the antagonists’ own camps.	卡塔赫纳—媾和总是有些“精神分裂”的尝试——事实上，分裂程度往往大到受到对抗双方自身阵营内部政治影响的程度。


That is precisely what happened in Colombia recently, when voters narrowly rejected a laboriously negotiated peace accord between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).	最近的哥伦比亚正是如此，选民以微弱多数拒绝了政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量（FARC）之间克服万难才达成的和平协议。


Plebiscites and referenda may seem like the purest manifestation of democracy; in fact, they are a favorite tool of leaders who rely on deceit and mendacity.	全民表决和公投貌似最纯粹的民主表现； 事实上，它们也是依靠诡计和谎言的领导人所钟爱的工具。


There is a reason why dictators and autocrats so often embrace them.	因此，独裁者和极权者常常采用它们。


Unsurprisingly, Colombia’s plebiscite – like the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum in June – was far from a triumph of democracy.	毫不奇怪，哥伦比亚的全民表决——就像6月份英国的退欧公投——绝非民主的胜利。


With Hurricane Matthew preventing hundreds of thousands of people from voting in areas where polls indicated support for the deal, only 37% of Colombia’s 34 million eligible voters turned out.	马修飓风让民调显示支持和平协议的地区的数十万人无法前去投票，在哥伦比亚3,400万有资格的选民中，只有37%投了票。


In that context, the “No” camp’s razor-thin margin of victory – just 0.4% – is even less compelling.	在这样的情况下，“拒绝”阵营以极微弱优势——只有0. 4%——胜出根本没有什么说服力。


Yet the deal’s opponents, led by former President Álvaro Uribe, expect to force President Juan Manuel Santos to head back to the negotiating table and produce a radically different kind of peace agreement with the FARC.	但以前总统乌里维（Álvaro Uribe）为首的反对阵营预计将迫使总统桑托斯重回谈判桌，与FARC谈判截然不同的新和平协议。


Considering that the deal overseen by Santos emerged from a highly complex four-year-long process, that expectation is totally unreasonable.	考虑到桑托斯所谈成的协议花了长达四年、克服各种复杂情况才大功告成，反对派的预期完全是不合理的。


No peace plan is perfect, and the Colombian accord was no exception.	和平计划永远无法完美，哥伦比亚也不例外。


But, if a deal is negotiated well, the end result brings significantly more benefits than costs.	但是，如果协议谈判顺利，最终结果将是利远大于弊。


And that would have been the case with the Colombian accord, which addresses a vast array of social and economic issues, including problems affecting indigenous communities, gender equality, gay rights, and the millions of people displaced by more than a half-century of fighting.	而哥伦比亚和平协议正是如此，它解决了大量社会和经济问题，包括影响到土著社区、性别平等、同性恋权利以及半个多世纪以来因为战斗而流离失所的数百万人的问题。


The deal also included an historic land-reform program.	该协议还包括了历史性的土地改革计划。


For Uribe and his opposition allies, the main objection to the deal concerns how it addresses the question of transitional justice.	对乌里维及其反对阵营而言，主要的反对理由是如何解决转型期正义问题。


Negotiators decided that the unconditional application of justice would not be possible.	谈判者认为无条件实施正义是不可行的。


The opposition decided that this was tantamount to impunity – and thus unacceptable.	反对派认为这等价于不予惩罚——而这是不可接受的。


But the government had made the right call.	但政府的计划是正确的。


After all, it was a negotiation, not a surrender.	毕竟，这是一场谈判而不是投向。


In the transition from war to peace with an undefeated insurgent group, it is unreasonable to expect to be able to treat justice as a strictly legal matter; the political context must be taken into account.	叛军集团并没有被击败，因此在从战争到和平的转型期，期待严格按照法律对待正义问题是不合理的； 必须考虑到政治环境。


Unfazed by reality, the opposition continues to demand that the guerillas be prosecuted for their crimes, while members of the Colombian armed forces who committed war crimes should be offered “judicial relief.”	反对派丝毫不顾现实，仍然要求FARC游击队接受审判，而犯有战争罪的哥伦比亚武装部队成员应该获得“司法豁免”。


They want the Special Tribunal for Transitional Justice to be dissolved, and the FARC leadership to be banned from participating in politics.	他们希望转型期正义特别法庭（Special Tribunal for Transitional Justice）解散，FARC领导层禁止参与政治。


They also demand that the interests of big landowners in the agreed rural reform be safeguarded, and argue that implementation of the agreement should be subordinate to the government’s fiscal constraints.	他们还要求在形成一致的农村改革协议中保护大地主的利益，并指出协议的实施应该服从政府预算约束。


To win support for their unreasonable demands, the No campaign focused unremittingly on the antipathy that Colombians (quite legitimately) feel toward the FARC.	为了让他们的不合理要求赢得支持，反对阵营坚持拿哥伦比亚人对FARC的厌恶心理（这种心理相当正常）做文章。


Uribe warned, dramatically, that the peace agreement would deliver Colombia to terrorism and “Castro-Chavismo.”	乌里维强烈警告说，和平和平协议将给哥伦比亚带来恐怖主义和“卡斯特罗-查韦斯主义”。


Of course, opposition to supposed impunity is not the only reason Colombians voted against the peace deal.	当然，反对豁免并非哥伦比亚人否决和平协议的唯一原因。


Some took issue with the socially progressive elements of the agreement.	一些人反对协议中的社会进步要素。


One key member of the No campaign, former Attorney General Alejandro Ordóñez, insisted that the word “gender” be removed from the text.	反对阵营的关键人物、前司法部长奥东内兹（Alejandro Ordóñez）坚持要求将“性别”一词从协议文本中删除。


After the vote, he touted it as a victory for “the Colombia of the believers.”	投票后，他声称这是“哥伦比亚信仰者”的胜利。


But opposition to impunity was probably not even the real motivation driving Uribe and other No campaign leaders.	但对豁免的反对也许连乌里维和其他反对阵营领导人的真正动机都不是。


After all, some of those who are decrying impunity today, Uribe included, supported impunity for the M-19 left-wing guerrilla group in the 1980s.	毕竟，包括乌里维在内的一些人，尽管他们现在反对豁免，但对于20世纪80年代M-19左翼游击队，他们是支持和面的。


The difference today is that a presidential election will be held in 2018, and the campaign has already begun.	今天的区别在于2018年将举行总统选举，而选战已经开始。


More than a drive for a different peace, the No campaign was a struggle for power.	反对阵营不是要求不同的和平协议，而是在为权力斗争。


The Uribistas cannot possibly believe their preposterous claims about the peace deal, or think that there is any chance that the FARC will agree to the terms they have set out.	乌里维派不可能信奉他们对和平协议的荒唐指责，或认为FARC有哪怕一丝机会同意他们所提出的条件。


But they do not want Santos to be able to claim credit for bringing peace to Colombia.	但他们不想让桑托斯占据给哥伦比亚带来和平的功劳。


If nothing else, this would mean that politicians could no longer use the excuse of armed conflict to justify their failure to address the country’s colossal social and economic problems.	这无非意味着政客不再能够借口武装冲突来为他们无法解决该国棘手的社会和经济问题开脱。


The consequences of these political machinations may be far-reaching.	这些政治阴谋的后果是影响深远的。


If peace becomes a matter of electoral politics, so will pretty much everything else – throwing Colombian democracy into a long period of political instability.	如果和平成为选举政治问题，其他许多东西也将如此——从而让哥伦比亚民主进入长期政治动荡。


But time to secure a new deal is running out.	但捍卫新协议的时机正在丧失。


When Santos made his peace overture, the FARC was still a cohesive organization with a unified leadership.	当桑托斯酝酿和平协议时，FARC仍是一个很有凝聚力的组织，其领导层非常团结。


Since the plebiscite, confusion has crept into its ranks, possibly presaging a breakup into uncontrollable rural militias and criminal gangs.	全民表决后，FARC内部产生了困惑，这也许预示着它将分裂为不可控的农村军阀和���帮。


To pull Colombia’s peace prospects out of limbo, the government should engage in intense negotiations with the FARC on points raised by the opposition.	要让哥伦比亚和平前景走出困境，政府需要加紧与FARC就反对派所提出的问题进行谈判。


The result would, no doubt, fall short of the Uribistas’ demands, but there are plenty of No voters who would be convinced.	毫无疑问，结果将无法达到乌里维派的要求，但将由大量反对选民被说服。


Indeed, the revised text might be enough to win approval – either in a new plebiscite or, preferably, in Congress.	事实上，修订后的协议文本可能足以赢得批准——不管是通过新全民表决还是（更理想的情况）国会批准。


Such an approach could deliver peace, though it would not quell the opposition’s obsessive challenge to Santos’ legacy on the subject.	这一方针能够带来和平，尽管它无法平息反对派不断地挑战桑托斯在这一问题上的遗产。


The peace deal negotiated by Santos would not have been possible without Uribe’s record as president.	要不是乌里维的总统执政记录，桑托斯所谈成的和平协议无从实现。


By vigorously prosecuting the war against the FARC, he changed its course.	乌里维通过坚决起诉FARC的战争罪改变了形势。


The question he must now ask himself is whether he wants to go down in history for denying Colombia the peace it deserves.	现在，乌里维必须扪心自问，他是否想因为破坏哥伦比亚赢得的和平而成为历史罪人。


The Foundations of Pacific Stability	太平洋稳定的基石


WASHINGTON, DC – This month, I completed a two-week, six-stop tour of the Pacific, beginning with a visit to the United States Army’s 25th Infantry Division in Hawaii.	华盛顿——本月，从驻扎在夏威夷的美国陆军第25步兵师开始，我完成了一次历时两周、途经六站的太平洋视察之旅。


It was a fitting way to start the trip, a reminder that the US Army is critical to forming the foundation for security in the Pacific.	从第25步兵师开启这次视察之旅再恰当不过，因为这提醒人们美国陆军是构建亚太安全的基石。


The 25th Infantry Division, which in its early years earned the nickname “Tropic Lightning,” marks its 75th anniversary this autumn.	第25步兵师早年曾赢得过“热带闪电”的称号，这支部队将在今年秋天迎来成立75周年纪念日。


The men and women stationed there – and, indeed, all US soldiers in the Asia-Pacific region – have been working to secure regional stability for much of the last century.	驻扎在那里的男兵和女兵——而且事实上还包括驻扎在亚太地区的所有美军士兵——在上个世纪绝大部分时间内一直在为确保地区稳定付出努力。


Since US President Barack Obama’s strategic rebalance to Asia, they have been doing even more.	自从美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马实行亚太再平衡战略后，他们承担了更多的使命。


Today, the US Army has a lot on its plate outside the region.	今天，美军在亚太地区以外面临的任务依然十分繁重。


It is at the forefront of the US-led coalition’s campaign against the so-called Islamic State, as well as efforts to support the people of Afghanistan.	身处美国领导的反抗所谓伊斯兰国联盟运动和支持阿富汗民众最前沿的都是美军官兵。


Yet we also continue to play a critical role in maintaining peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region.	但我们仍然在维护亚太地区和平与安全方面发挥了关键的作用。


Though security in the Pacific is often associated with the efforts of the US Air Force and Navy, the Army is assuming an increasingly important role in strengthening regional partnerships.	虽然太平洋安全往往与美国空军和海军的工作密不可分，但陆军却在加强地区合作方面发挥着日益重要的作用。


At a time when six of the world’s ten largest armies are located in the Pacific theater of operations, and 22 of the region’s 27 countries have army officers as their defense chiefs, the need to invest in the US Army’s mission in the region is clear.	值此全世界十大陆军有六只驻扎在太平洋战区和该地区27国中的22国启用陆军军官担任本国国防部长之际，投资该地区美国陆军行动的必要性是显而易见的。


A key component of that mission is the Pacific Pathways program, which involves “joining multinational partners to conduct a series of military exercises intended to increase Army readiness through additional training and strengthened partner-force relationships.”	太平洋通道计划是这项任务的关键环节，其中涉及“联合多国伙伴通过加强训练和友军关系开展一系列旨在提高陆军战备情况的军事演习行动。


Engaging with US soldiers participating in Pacific Pathways exercises in Hawaii, Malaysia, and Alaska, I saw firsthand how these efforts advance regional security.	”通过和参与夏威夷、马来西亚和阿拉斯加太平洋通道演习的美军士兵的亲身接触，我亲眼见证了上述工作在推进地区安全过程中所发挥的作用。


In Hawaii, American and Singaporean soldiers participated in their 36th year of joint exercises.	在夏威夷，美国和新加坡士兵第36年参加了联合演习行动。


From the newest privates to the most experienced generals, US soldiers have developed strong ties with their counterparts and deep pride in their shared security mission.	从新入伍的列兵到作战经验丰富的将军，美国士兵与参与演习的盟国士兵建立了密切的关系，对共同的安全使命拥有深切的自豪感是他们的共同特征。


In this sense, these soldiers are also serving as important ambassadors in the region.	从这个意义上讲，这些士兵同样在亚太地区起到了重要的使者作用。


The US Army’s partnership with Malaysia is more recent.	美国陆军与马来西亚的合作不久前刚刚开始。


But during an annual joint exercise, I witnessed our forces improving familiarity and interoperability, and noted growing satisfaction with the strengthening of ties.	但在一次年度联合演习中，我亲眼见证了我们部队熟悉度和互操作性的提高，并注意到双方对加强合作关系不断增长的满意度。


In the event of, say, a natural disaster in the Pacific, the bonds that the US and Malaysia have fostered could help save thousands of lives during a combined crisis response.	如果在太平洋地区发生自然灾害，美国和马来西亚已经建立的关系可以在一次联合救灾过程中挽救成千上万人的生命。


We know that we must continue working to sustain and strengthen our engagement in the Pacific, even as US soldiers continue to carry out diverse and demanding missions in other parts of the world.	我们知道即使在美国士兵继续在世界其他地方执行多样化和难度极大的任务的同时，我们也必须继续竭尽全力保持并强化我们在太平洋地区的参与力度。


One way we can help to meet this need is through the use of rotational brigades.	我们实现这一目标的方式之一是通过轮流驻扎部队的使用。


At Camp Casey in South Korea, I had lunch with soldiers from the 1st Cavalry Division, who had trained for nine months at Fort Hood, Texas, before embarking on a nine-month rotation to the peninsula.	在韩国的凯西营地，我与来自第一骑兵师的官兵共进午餐，他们在踏上此次为其9个月的半岛驻扎任务之前曾在德克萨斯州的胡德堡进行过9个月的训练。


Over the course of the deployment, the readiness of these forces actually increases, because of the quality and rigor of the training they undertake with partners from the Republic of Korea’s Army.	在此次驻军过程中，这支部队的备战能力实际有所提升，因为他们与来自韩国友军的同伴共同接受了高质量的严格训练。


Another way the US Army is maintaining flexibility, resiliency, and depth in the Asia-Pacific region is by placing pre-positioned stocks – strategic stockpiles of critical combat equipment – on allies’ territory.	美国陆军在亚太地区保持灵活性、韧性和军事深度的另一种方式是通过将物资——包括关键作战装备等战略储备——预先运送到盟国的国土上。


In Japan, for example, the US Army stores more than 100 watercraft that can be used to deliver supplies quickly in the event of a natural disaster or other contingency.	比如在日本，美国陆军就存储了100多艘船只，可以在发生自然灾害或其他紧急状况时被用于物资的迅速运送。


Beyond storing the equipment, we train with our partners to use it, and we develop our logistical capabilities to distribute it effectively.	除存储装备外，我们还训练合作伙伴如何使用装备，同时发展后勤保障能力对其进行有效的运送。


In effect, the US Army provides rapid response capabilities to the US Joint Force (the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines acting in tandem) and our allies and partners.	事实上，美国陆军向（包括陆、海、空军和海军陆战队在内的）美军联合部队、盟国及合作伙伴提供快速反应能力。


The US Army is also pursuing tactical innovation in the Pacific.	美军也在太平洋地区开展战术创新行动。


While our budget for modernization is below that of the other US armed services, we must continue to develop capabilities rapidly and equip our people with the latest technology.	虽然我们的现代化预算低于其他美军军种，但我们仍必须快速发展创新能力运用最新科技武装我们的士兵。


That is why, for example, soldiers have been learning to fight in formation with robots in Hawaii, and we have engaged in bilateral training with unmanned aerial systems in Malaysia.	这也解释了士兵们为什么在夏威夷学习如何与机器人协同作战，以及我们在马来西亚开展两国无人机系统培训的原因。


A final element of our involvement in the Asia-Pacific region is the effort to improve our capabilities in difficult tactical environments.	我们参与亚太地区行动的最后一个要素是在困难的战术环境下提高我们的作战技能。


We engage in exercises in Alaska that develop our capabilities in extreme climates – capabilities that will help us to ensure that the Arctic does not become a contested region.	我们参与阿拉斯加军演以提高在极端气候条件下的作战能力——这种能力可以协助我们确保北极不会沦为争议地区。


And, through our training in Hawaii and Malaysia, we have strengthened our capacity to fight in a jungle environment.	而且通过我们在夏威夷和马来西亚的训练，我们已经成功强化了丛林环境下的作战能力。


The US Army has a broad array of missions and responsibilities.	美国陆军的使命和职责多种多样。


From Hawaii through Guam, to Northeast Asia and the Alaskan frontier, it is pursuing a crucial one: providing a foundation for security in a dynamic region – and for America’s future there.	从夏威夷到关岛、再到东北亚和阿拉斯加边境，陆军正在完成一项关键的使命：为这个活跃地区的安全——和美国在那里的未来奠定基础。


Most economists agree that larger deficits make sense if used to pay for necessary infrastructure and education improvements, not to mention enhancing domestic physical and cyber security.	大部分经济学家都同意，如果将赤字用于支付必要的基础设施和教育改善，或者强化国内实体和网络安全，��么增加赤字是有意义的。


America Adrift	飘忽不定的美国


TOKYO – US President Barack Obama’s hesitations, ambivalence, U-turns, and political gamesmanship with the US Congress over punishing Syria for its use of chemical weapons has achieved only two things with certainty: it has raised Russia’s diplomatic profile for the first time in many years, and it has spooked those of America’s allies – from Saudi Arabia and Israel to Japan and South Korea – that rely heavily on US promises.	东京—美国总统奥巴马在惩罚叙利亚使用化学武器问题上的犹豫、矛盾、态度大转变以及与美国国会大玩政治把戏只带来了两样确定的东西：俄罗斯多年来第一次在外交阵线上占据了上风，以及让严重依赖美国承诺的盟友——从沙特和以色列到日本和韩国——寒心。


To minimize the impact of both consequences, the United States now must enforce with utmost determination its agreement with Russia on eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons.	为了将这两大后果的影响最小化，美国现在必须在与俄罗斯达成的消除叙利亚化学武器的协议上拿出最大的决心。


But will it do so?	但美国会这么做吗？


US Secretary of State John Kerry’s heat-of-the-moment comment that a military strike on Syria could be avoided if all chemical weapons were turned over was a diplomatic gift to Russia, and it responded with alacrity.	美国国务卿克里发表了热情洋溢的评论——军事打击叙利亚可以避免，只要它交出所有化学武器。 这对俄罗斯来说是一份外交大礼，俄罗斯也马上给予了积极的回应。


Not usually noted for its diplomatic dexterity, the Kremlin quickly proposed compelling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and to place its chemical-weapons stockpile under United Nations control.	克里姆林宫以罕见的外交敏捷立刻建议强迫叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权加入化学武器公约（CWC），并让联合国接管其化学武器库。


Putin’s initiative turned out to be a diplomatic lifeline, as Obama’s gambit of seeking Congressional approval for an attack on Syria looked certain to fail, which would have dented his authority as America’s commander-in-chief.	普京的方案堪称外交生命线，而奥巴马寻求国会批准打击叙利亚的做法看起来必将以失败告终，而这将有损于他作为美国三军统帅的权威。


Although the agreement may yet strip Assad’s regime of some of its most dangerous weapons, the process – if it can be called that – which brought it about has strengthened a global perception that US foreign policy in Obama’s second term is either adrift or drifting into isolationism.	尽管协议仍可能让巴沙尔政权掌握部分最危险的武器，但该协议所开启的进程——如果可以称之为进程的话——强化了一个全球认识，即奥巴马第二任期的美国外交政策要么是飘忽不定的，要么是走向孤立主义。


The US response to the so-called “Arab Spring,” for example, has lacked political conviction, much less strategic direction.	比如，美国对所谓“阿拉伯之春”的反应就缺少政治信念，也毫无战略方向可言。


Egypt’s old-new military rulers, for example, have concluded that American criticism can be ignored, because America cannot cut off its aid to Egypt for geopolitical reasons.	比如，埃及新旧军事统治者认定，美国的批评可以忽略，因为出于地缘政治原因，美国不可能取消对埃及的援助。


When I met with Egypt’s foreign minister, Nabil Fahmy, in August, he hinted at the new regime’s dissatisfaction with attempts by the European Union and the US to influence his country’s domestic affairs.	8月我与埃及外交部长法赫米（Nabil Fahmy）举行了会晤，他暗示我说，新政权对于欧盟和美国干预埃及内政的行为十分不满。


Egypt, he said, understood the importance of democracy and human rights, but avoiding turmoil must be the government’s highest priority.	他说，埃及明白民主和人权的重要性，但避免动乱才是政府的最高使命。


Of course, appeals to “stability” are nothing new from authoritarian governments.	当然，“稳定”诉求决非独裁政府的新鲜事。


As Pakistan’s then-president, Pervez Musharraf, dismissively put it when I visited Islamabad as Japan’s defense minister, “Democracy?	当年我作为日本防卫大臣访问巴基斯坦时，时任总统穆沙拉夫不屑一顾地说：“民主？


I know all about that.”	我对它一清二楚。 ”


The US, of course, claims that it, too, knows all about democracy.	当然，美国也说，我对民主一清二楚。


But its diplomatic cognitive dissonance – criticizing the Egyptian regime while continuing to supply it with military hardware – can serve only to undermine bilateral relations, just as the same American approach to Musharraf’s regime thoroughly eroded US-Pakistani ties.	但其外交认知失调——在批评埃及政权的同时继续向其提供军事装备——只能破坏双边关系，一如美国针对穆沙拉夫政权的方针彻底破坏了美巴关系。


Moreover, the consequences of such foreign-policy waffling extend far beyond the Middle East.	此外，外交政策如此优柔寡断的后果早已溢出了中东。


In November 2009, when Obama visited Japan for the first time as President, he emphasized that he was from Hawaii and proud to be “Americans’ first Pacific president.”	2009年11月，奥巴马第一次作为总统访问日本，其间他强调自己来自夏威夷，并以“美国第一任太平洋总统”而自豪。


Two years later, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton published “America’s Pacific Century,” indicating a shift in America’s global strategy.	两年后，时任国务卿希拉里·克林顿发表了《美国的太平洋世纪》，表明了美国全球战略的转变。


This declaration of a “return to Asia” marked the start of the famous “pivot” to the Pacific in US foreign policy – a shift away from the Middle East that was intended to meet the challenges posed by China’s growing geopolitical ambitions.	希拉里宣布“回归亚洲”标志着美国外交政策太平洋“支点”的开端——从中东离开，意在应对中国日渐扩大的地缘政治野心所带来的挑战。


All of Asia’s democracies (and a few of its autocracies, particularly Vietnam) welcomed it.	所有亚洲民主国家（以及一些独裁国家，特别是越南）欢迎美国的这一决定。


But, though rhetoric matters in diplomacy, the pivot will be fatally undermined if Asians perceive the same sort of gap between America’s words and its actions that has become apparent in its Middle East policy (despite Kerry’s determined efforts to revitalize peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority).	但是，尽管辞令在外交中有其作用，但如果亚洲人觉得美国所说和所做之间存在于其中东政策类似的差距的话（尽管克里竭尽全力重启以色列和巴勒斯坦权力机构的和平谈判），支点论将遭到致命打击。


In particular, there is a gnawing fear that the US may yet choose the “G-2” option: a grand bargain with China for the two countries to decide Asia’s fate by themselves and over our heads.	特别是，亚洲十分担心美国会选择“G2”战略：与中国做一笔大交易，中美凌驾于我们其他国家之上，决定亚洲的命运。


Given the size and clout of countries like India, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea, such a condominium is, no doubt, doomed to failure.	考虑到印度、日本、印尼和韩国等国家的规模和实力，这样的共同统治毫无疑问是注定要失败的。


So, as tempting as such a relationship may be, the US ought to resist it.	因此，尽管这一选择相当诱人，美国仍应该设法抵制住诱惑。


Meanwhile, in Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has begun a national discussion concerning how the country can take greater responsibility for its own defense.	与此同时，在日本，首相安倍晋三已启动了关于如何承担自身防务的更大责任的全国讨论。


His government continues to place great faith in the Japan-US alliance as the bedrock of Japanese (and Asian) security.	安倍政府继续充分相信日美同盟可以成为日本（和亚洲）的安全基石。


But Abe’s government also recognizes that the world’s geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and that many in the US are tempted by the siren song of isolationism.	但安倍政府还认识到，世界地缘政治格局正在改变，许多美国人正在受孤立主义的诱惑。


So Abe feels obliged to put Japan in a position to be able to help Asia’s democracies manage any crisis that may emerge in the event of a change in America’s regional presence.	因此安倍感到有必要改变日本的立场，使之有助于亚洲民主国家管理好美国亚太地区部署变化所可能引起的危机。


In the coming days, Japan will welcome Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of President John F. Kennedy and the likely new US ambassador.	不久日本将迎来前总统肯尼迪之女卡洛琳·肯尼迪（她可能会是新任驻日大使）。


She will find a Japan renewing itself and its commitment to Asia’s freedoms.	她将会发现日本已经自新，并誓将捍卫亚洲的自由。


May that example, similar to her father’s appeal 53 years ago for the defense of freedom, also call forth the best in the American spirit.	但愿这一点——和她的父亲在53年前呼吁捍卫自由一样——能唤起美国精神的精髓。


American-Made Financial Repression	美国制造的金融抑制


HONG KONG – A generation of development economists owe Ronald McKinnon, who died earlier this month, a huge intellectual debt for his insight – introduced in his 1973 book Money and Capital in Economic Development – that governments that engage in financial repression (channeling funds toward themselves to reduce their debt) hamper financial development.	香港—整整一代发展经济学家都从本月刚刚去世的罗纳德·麦金农（Ronald McKinnon）的深邃洞见中汲取过大量知识养分——他在1973年的著作《经济发展中的货币和资本》（Money and Capital in Economic Development）中指出，实行金融抑制的政府将廉价资金导向政府主导的项目以降低政府债务，实际上恰恰阻挠了本国的金融发展。


Indeed, McKinnon provided the key to understanding why emerging economies’ financial sectors were underdeveloped.	事实上，麦金农提供了理解新兴市场经济体的金融业发展不足的关键逻辑。


At the end of his life, McKinnon was working on a related – also potentially groundbreaking – concept: a dollar-renminbi standard.	在生命的最后时刻，麦金农正致力于研究一个与金融抑制相关的概念，其具有突破性的潜力，即“美元-人民币互动的国际货币体系”。


In his view, such a system would alleviate the financial repression and fragmentation that is undermining global financial stability and growth.	在他看来，这个中美合作的货币体系能够缓和正在破坏全球金融稳定和增长的金融抑制与分裂趋势。


The question is whether the powers that be – particularly in the United States, which has long benefited from the dollar’s global domination – would ever agree to such a cooperative system.	问题在于相关的权势方——特别是长期从美元的全球主宰地位中获益的美国利益集团——是否能够接受这样一套合作性的国际货币体系。


The notion that the dollar’s global dominance is contributing to financial repression represents a significant historical shift.	美元的全球主宰地位现在居然会助长金融抑制，这一概念代表了一个重大的历史变化。


As McKinnon pointed out, the dollar became a dominant international currency after World War II because it helped to reduce financial repression and fragmentation in Europe and Asia, where high inflation, negative real interest rates, and excessive regulation prevailed.	麦金农指出，美元之所以在二战后成为主要国际货币，是因为它帮助减少了欧洲和亚洲的金融抑制和分裂——当时，这两个地区普遍存在高通胀、负实际利率和过度监管。


By using the dollar to anchor prices and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate as the benchmark for the cost of capital, invoicing, payments, clearing, liquidity, and central-bank reserves all became more stable and reliable.	通过用美元锚定价格并以美联储利率作为资金成本的基准价格，定价、支付、清算、流动性和央行储备都变得更加稳定和可靠。


As long as the US remained competitive and productive, currencies that were pegged to the dollar benefited considerably.	只要美国保持竞争力和生产力，盯住美元的货币就能从中大获裨益。


For economies in transition – such as Western Europe in the 1950s-1960s, Asia during the growth miracle of the 1970s-1990s, and China in 1996-2005 – the dollar provided an anchor for the macroeconomic stabilization efforts and fiscal and monetary discipline that structural transformation demanded.	对转型经济体来说——比如20世纪50及60年代的西欧、20世纪70至90年代增长奇迹时期的亚洲以及1996—2005年的中国——美元为稳定宏观经济和促进结构转型所需要的财政与货币纪律提供了稳定的锚。


But two disruptions undermined these benefits.	但这些正面影响受到过两次干扰。


First, in 1971, the US terminated the dollar’s convertibility to gold, opening the way for the emergence of a new exchange-rate regime, based on freely floating fiat currencies.	第一次是1971年，美国结束了美元与黄金的可兑换性，开启了基于汇率自由浮动的法定纸币的新货币制度的大门。


Then came the period of “Japan-bashing” in the 1980s-1990s, which culminated in threats from the US to impose trade sanctions if Japan’s competitive pressure on American industries did not ease.	接着是20世纪八十及九十年代的“教训日本”（Japan-bashing）时期，这场风潮的顶峰是美国威胁日本，如果不减低来自日本的对美国各行业的竞争压力，就要对日本采取贸易制裁。


With the subsequent sharp appreciation in the yen/dollar exchange rate, from ¥360:$1 to ¥80:1, the world’s second-largest economy has suffered through two decades of deflation and stagnation.	随后，日元/美元汇率急剧升值，从360日元兑1美元升高到80日元兑1美元，世界第二大经济体也因此进入了二十多年的通缩和停滞期。


Throughout this period, McKinnon argued that, by forcing America’s trade partners to bear the burden of adjustment, the dollar’s predominance leads to “conflicted virtue”: surplus countries like Japan, Germany, and China faced pressure to strengthen their currencies, at the risk of triggering deflation.	在此期间，麦金农指出，通过强迫贸易伙伴承担调整负担，美元的主宰地位导致了“品德矛盾”（conflicted virtue）：日本、德国和中国等贸易盈余国面临货币升值的压力和触发通缩的风险。


If they failed to do so, their “undervalued” exchange rates were criticized as unfair.	如果它们不这样做，其“低估”的汇率就会被批为不公平。


But McKinnon disagreed with the conventional wisdom that the best way to resolve this conflict would be to shift to flexible exchange rates.	传统思维认为解决这一冲突的最佳办法是采纳弹性汇率制度。 麦金农并不赞成这个传统思维。


Instead, he recommended that Asian countries develop a regional currency that would provide macroeconomic stability in the face of dollar volatility.	相反，他建议亚洲国家面对美元波动时，发行可以稳定宏观经济的地区性货币。


Long before the Bretton Wood institutions conceded that capital controls could be useful, McKinnon was asserting that, under certain circumstances, such controls might be necessary to supplement prudential banking regulation.	远在布雷顿森林体系承认资本管制在一些情况下有益之前，麦金农就得出结论，在一定条件下，资本管制也许是对审慎银行监管的必要补充。


McKinnon has a particularly strong following among Chinese economists.	麦金农在中国的经济学家中拥趸甚众。


China achieved its strongest growth when the renminbi was pegged to the dollar – a system that required steadfast reforms and strict fiscal discipline.	在1996-2005期间，人民币盯住美元的制度促进了通过坚定不移的改革和严格的财政纪律来实现最强劲的经济增长。


The renminbi’s steady appreciation against the dollar – at an annual rate of about 3%, on average, since 2005 – shrank China’s current-account surplus.	自2005年以来，人民币对美元稳步升值——平均每年升值3%左右。


In a weak global economic environment, China’s progress in addressing macroeconomic imbalances, while maintaining an annual growth rate of about 7%, was no small feat.	在全球经济环境疲软的情况下，中国在通过名义及实际汇率不断升值来纠正宏观经济失衡的同时维持了7%以上的年经济增长率，这是一个不小的成就。


But the renminbi’s appreciation also attracted carry-trade speculators, who purchased renminbi assets in order to benefit from high interest rates (particularly after 2008) and exchange-rate gains.	但人民币稳步单向升值也吸引了套息交易投机者，他们买入人民币资产同时享受高利率（特别是2008年后）和汇率升值带来的好处。


This is partly why China’s foreign-exchange reserves have swelled so rapidly, from $250 billion in 2000 to $4 trillion this year.	这正是中国外汇储备增长如此迅速（从2000年的2,500亿美元增加到今年的4万亿美元）的部分原因。


The problem, as McKinnon recognized, is that these speculative inflows of “hot” money have weakened China’s macroeconomic tools and fueled ever more financial repression.	麦金农认为这些投机性的流入 热钱削弱了中国的宏观经济工具，并助长了更加严重的金融抑制。


For starters, China’s leaders, recognizing that higher interest rates would draw even greater inflows, are increasingly wary of interest-rate – and even capital-account – liberalization.	首先，中国货币当局意识到高利率会带来更大的热钱流入，开始日益担忧利率及资本账户的自由化。


Making matters worse, the Chinese authorities are tightening credit and regulating the money supply through sterilization and high reserve requirements for bank deposits – an approach that undermines real economic growth considerably.	更糟糕的是，中国当局正在通过发行央行债券来对冲外资流入和通过提高银行存款准备金率来减少货币供给，而这些政策并不利于健康的实体经济增长。


In order to stem this decline without raising interest rates too much, they have resorted to administratively targeted credit loosening.	为了阻止实体经济的下降趋势，并不让利率升得过高，政府实施了行政性的定向信贷宽松措施。


More “China-bashing,” with the US demanding that the renminbi be allowed to appreciate further, is clearly not the answer.	更多的“教训中国”措施，包括美国要求中国允许人民币进一步升值等压力，并不是最好的药方。


Instead, the US should focus on reducing its own fiscal deficit, thereby facilitating Chinese efforts to boost domestic consumption.	相反，美国应该专注于降低其自身的财政赤字，从而帮助中国提振国内消费，而不是维持高储蓄并借给别国消费。


If the Fed’s benchmark interest rate can be restored to historical trend levels, China would have more policy space to adjust interest rates in alignment with its growth pattern and pursue an orderly opening of its capital account.	如果美联储基准利率可以回到历史趋势水平，中国就有更大的政策空间提高利率，以使其与增长模式协调并加速资本账户的有序开放。


Simply put, the world needs its two largest economies to work together to bolster global monetary stability.	简言之，世界需要其最大的两个经济体携手合作促进全球货币稳定。


Together, China and the US can alleviate financial repression, avert protectionist tendencies, and help maintain a strong foundation for global stability.	团结一致的中国和美国能够缓和金融抑制、阻止保护主义倾向、有助于为全球经济金融稳定奠定坚固的基础。


Unfortunately, McKinnon’s policy advice has not been popular among mainstream American economists and policymakers, who prefer the short-term political advantages afforded to them by free-market rhetoric.	遗憾的是，麦金农的政策建议不受美国主流经济学家和决策者欢迎，他们更偏好空洞的自由市场说辞所带来的短期政治好处。


It is time for US leaders to recognize that what former French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing called the “exorbitant privilege” that the dollar’s global dominance affords America also entails considerable responsibility.	美国的领袖们应该认识到，前法国总理瓦勒里·季斯卡·德斯坦（Valéry Giscard d’Estaing）所描述的美元全球主宰地位给美国带来的“过度特权”，也包括了与其权利对应的巨大的责任。


Global monetary stability is, after all, a public good.	毕竟全球货币稳定是一种公益性的全球公共基础设施。


The Return of the Dollar	美元的回归


LAGUNA BEACH – The US dollar is on the move.	拉古娜海滩—美元在行动。


In the last four months alone, it has soared by more than 7% compared with a basket of more than a dozen global currencies, and by even more against the euro and the Japanese yen.	光是在过去四个月中，其相对一揽子十多种全球货币的汇率飙升超过7%，相对欧元和日元升至更多。


This dollar rally, the result of genuine economic progress and divergent policy developments, could contribute to the “rebalancing” that has long eluded the world economy.	美元的这一波大涨是真实经济进步和政策发展分化的结果，或许有利于世界经济长期缺乏的“再平衡”。


But that outcome is far from guaranteed, especially given the related risks of financial instability.	但这一结果还远远没有板上钉钉，特别是考虑到相关金融动荡风险。


Two major factors are currently working in the dollar’s favor, particularly compared to the euro and the yen.	两大因素目前十分有利于美元，特别是相对欧元和日元而言。


First, the United States is consistently outperforming Europe and Japan in terms of economic growth and dynamism – and will likely continue to do so – owing not only to its economic flexibility and entrepreneurial energy, but also to its more decisive policy action since the start of the global financial crisis.	首先，美国在经济增长和活力方面表现持续优于欧洲和日本——并且可能继续保持这一优势——这不但是因为美国的经济灵活性和企业家精神，也是因为其自全球金融危机爆发以来更果断的政策行动。


Second, after a period of alignment, the monetary policies of these three large and systemically important economies are diverging, taking the world economy from a multi-speed trajectory to a multi-track one.	其次，在经历了一段相同时期后，这三个具系统重要性的大经济体的货币政策开始趋异，将世界经济从多速轨道带向多轨轨道。


Indeed, whereas the US Federal Reserve terminated its large-scale securities purchases, known as “quantitative easing” (QE), last month, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank recently announced the expansion of their monetary-stimulus programs.	事实上，美联储上个月结束了其大规模证券购买计划（称为“量化宽松”），而日本银行和欧洲央行最近才宣布扩大其货币刺激计划。


In fact, ECB President Mario Draghi signaled a willingness to expand his institution’s balance sheet by a massive €1 trillion ($1.25 trillion).	事实上，欧洲央行行长德拉吉放出信号准备将欧洲央行的资产负债表一举扩大1万亿欧元。


With higher US market interest rates attracting additional capital inflows and pushing the dollar even higher, the currency’s revaluation would appear to be just what the doctor ordered when it comes to catalyzing a long-awaited global rebalancing – one that promotes stronger growth and mitigates deflation risk in Europe and Japan.	美国市场利率的升高吸引了更多的资本流入、进一步推高了美元，而货币的升值正是全球再平衡翘首以待的催化剂——它促进更强的增长，缓和欧洲和日本的通缩风险。


Specifically, an appreciating dollar improves the price competitiveness of European and Japanese companies in the US and other markets, while moderating some of the structural deflationary pressure in the lagging economies by causing import prices to rise.	具体而言，升值的美元增强了欧洲和日本公司在美国和其他市场的价格竞争力，也通过引起进口价格上涨缓和了落后经济体的些许结构性通缩压力。


Yet the benefits of the dollar’s rally are far from guaranteed, for both economic and financial reasons.	但美元反弹的好处并非板上钉钉，原因既有经济方面的，也有金融方面的。


While the US economy is more resilient and agile than its developed counterparts, it is not yet robust enough to be able to adjust smoothly to a significant shift in external demand to other countries.	尽管美国经济比其他发达国家拥有更强的恢复力和更大的活力，但仍没有强健到足以平稳调整使其他国家的外部需求发生重大变化。


There is also the risk that, given the role of the ECB and the Bank of Japan in shaping their currencies’ performance, such a shift could be characterized as a “currency war” in the US Congress, prompting a retaliatory policy response.	另一个风险是，考虑到欧洲央行和日本银行在影响各自货币表现方面的作用，这一变化可能被美国国会打上“货币战争”的标签，引起报复性政策反应。


Furthermore, sudden large currency moves tend to translate into financial-market instability.	此外，突发的剧烈货币变动总是会带来金融市场动荡。


To be sure, this risk was more acute when a larger number of emerging-economy currencies were pegged to the US dollar, which meant that a significant shift in the dollar’s value would weaken other countries’ balance-of-payments position and erode their international reserves, thereby undermining their creditworthiness.	诚然，这一风险在更多数量的新兴经济体货币盯住美元时更加尖锐（这意味着美元价值的剧烈变动会削弱其他国家的收支平衡，侵蚀它们的国际储备，从而破坏它们的信誉）。


Today, many of these countries have adopted more flexible exchange-rate regimes, and quite a few retain adequate reserve holdings.	如今，许多新兴国家采取了更加灵活的汇率制度，其中不少还囤积了充足的外汇储备。


But a new issue risks bringing about a similarly problematic outcome: By repeatedly repressing financial-market volatility over the last few years, central-bank policies have inadvertently encouraged excessive risk-taking, which has pushed many financial-asset prices higher than economic fundamentals warrant.	但一个新问题有可能带来类似的问题结果：在过去几年中，中央银行政策一再强调金融市场动荡，在不经意间鼓励了过度冒险，而这导致许多金融资产的价格超过了经济基本面。


To the extent that continued currency-market volatility spills over into other markets – and it will – the imperative for stronger economic fundamentals to validate asset prices will intensify.	如果持续的或市场动荡溢出到其他市场——必然会如此——强化经济基本面以印证资产价格的需要就会增强。


This is not to say that the currency re-alignment that is currently underway is necessarily a problematic development; on the contrary, it has the potential to boost the global economy by supporting the recovery of some of its most challenged components.	这并不是说目前正在发生的货币重排（currency re-alignment）必然是一个问题趋势； 相反，它有可能通过支持最棘手要素的恢复而提振全球经济。


But the only way to take advantage of the re-alignment’s benefits, without experiencing serious economic disruptions and financial-market volatility, is to introduce complementary growth-enhancing policy adjustments, such as accelerating structural reforms, balancing aggregate demand, and reducing or eliminating debt overhangs.	但利用货币重排好处而引发严重经济干扰和金融市场动荡的唯一办法是引入互补性增长强化政策调整，如加速结构性改革、平衡总需求、遏制或消除债���积压等。


After all, global growth, at its current level, is inadequate for mere redistribution among countries to work.	毕竟，以当前水平，仅仅在各国之间重新分配全球增长是不够的。


Overall global GDP needs to increase.	全球总GDP也需要提高。


The US dollar’s resurgence, while promising, is only a first step.	美元的反弹虽然是件好事，但只是第一步。


It is up to governments to ensure that the ongoing currency re-alignment supports a balanced, stable, and sustainable economic recovery.	政府需要确保进行中的货币重排支持平衡、稳定、可持续的经济复苏。


Otherwise, they may find themselves again in the unpleasant business of mitigating financial instability.	否则，它们有可能再次陷入令人不愉快的减轻金融动荡的任务。


Western Politics’ Locust Years	世界政治的荒年


NEW YORK – Since my teenage years, I have been fascinated by the permutations and machinations of national politics.	纽约—从十几岁开始，我就着迷于国家政策的排列和阴谋。


Today, I find myself focusing on broader political trends that also help to explain global economic issues.	如今，我开始关注更广泛的政治趋势以助理解全球经济问题。


One such trend is the political fragmentation and polarization evident in Western democracies.	这些趋势之一是欧洲民主国家显而易见的政治碎片化和极化。


Fringe movements, some operating within established political structures, and others seeking to create new ones, are placing pressure on traditional parties, making it difficult for them to mobilize their supporters, and, in some cases, causing them real damage.	边缘运动——其中一些在现有政治结构内部进行，也有一些寻求建立新政治结构——正在给传统政党制造压力，增加它们动员支持者的难度，有时还会造成名副其实的伤害。


Desperate not to appear weak, long-established parties have become wary of cooperating across the aisle.	老牌政党急于证明自己并不软弱，在与它们合作的问题十分谨慎。


The resulting refusal to work together on the major issues of the day has had a dramatic impact on economic policies.	由此所造成的在当今重要问题上的拒绝合作形成了巨大的经济政策影响。


Once formulated through negotiations conducted at the political center, where Western democracies have long been anchored, policymaking is increasingly shaped by stubborn forces on the extreme left and right.	曾经，决策通过政治中心的谈判形成——这也是西方民主长期以来的“锚”——而如今日益受到极左和极右顽固势力的影响。


This approach has, it must be said, yielded the occasional breakthrough – sometimes good, sometimes bad.	必须说，这一方针偶尔也会产生突破——有好也有坏。


But the overall result has been policy paralysis, with even the most basic elements of economic governance (such as actively passing a budget in the United States) suffering as a result.	但总体结果是政策瘫痪，甚至连最基本的经济治理要素都受到影响（如积极地通过美国预算）。


Needless to say, the greater the governance and policy challenges at home, the more difficult regional and global cooperation becomes.	不消说，国内治理和政策挑战越大，地区和全球合作也就越困难。


The Tea Party in the US is a case in point.	美国茶党就是如此。


After its success on the national stage in the 2010 midterm congressional election, many Republican lawmakers became so concerned about securing their party’s “base” for future re-election bids that they no longer felt comfortable pursuing the type of bipartisan cooperation that underpin effective economic policymaking.	2010年，茶党在国会中期选举中取得成功，此后，许多共和党立法者开始担心确保本党在未来连任的“基础”问题，而不再满足于追求作为有效经济决策基础的跨党派合作。


But the Tea Party’s impact did not end there.	但茶党的影响不止于此。


By contributing to a shutdown of federal-government operations and repeatedly raising the threat of a technical default, it risked undermining an already-fragile US economic recovery.	它导致联邦政府运转“停车”并一再造成技术违约威胁，有可能破坏已然十分脆弱的美国经济复苏。


While the movement has evolved and no longer threatens to hold the economy hostage, it continues to contribute to overall policy paralysis.	茶党运动已经有所改变，并不再把经济作为“人质”，但它依然在制造政策瘫痪。


Europe now seems to be headed down a similar path, as non-traditional parties – many of them driven by single issues – become increasingly influential.	如今，欧洲似乎也走上了相同的道路，非传统政党——其中许多政党以简单的问题为驱动力——影响力日增。


Movements like France’s anti-immigration National Front are making leading mainstream parties more likely to pander to extremists in order to preserve their support.	法国反移民政党国民阵线（National Front）等运动正在导致主流政党更有可能迎合极端分子以维持支持率。


Of course, their fear is not irrational, as Pasok, a long-established left-wing party in Greece, found out when the far-left, anti-austerity Syriza Party surged to victory in January.	当然，他们的担心不是非理性的，比如老牌希腊左翼政党泛希腊社会主义运动党（Pasok）在1月份极左翼反紧缩的左翼联盟党（Syriza Party）赢得大选时就发现了这一点。


But that does not change the fact that parties’ need to address their electoral fears is causing serious damage to national policymaking.	但这没有改变一个事实，即政党解决选民担忧的需要正在给国家决策带来严重伤害。


Indeed, most established parties are so busy playing defense that they have little inclination to engage in the type of forward-looking strategic thinking that is needed to re-energize exhausted growth models, anchor financial stability, and ensure that technological innovation enables broad-based prosperity.	事实上，大部分老牌政党忙于防守，都不愿采取前瞻性战略思维，而这种思维正是重新启动动力不足的增长模式、锚定金融稳定、确保技术创新带来更广泛的繁荣的必要条件。


As a result, Western economies are running chronically below their potential – and risk undermining their future potential.	结果，西方经济体长期在潜力之下运行——并有可能损害未来潜力。


That is why future generations will likely remember this as a time of lost economic opportunities.	因此，在子孙后代的记忆中，今天或许是一个丧失经济机会的时代。


Instead of bowing to polarization and paralysis, policymakers should be promoting growth- and productivity-enhancing infrastructure investments, funded at exceptionally low interest rates, scaling up labor-market reforms, and working to address the growing income and wealth inequality that is increasingly limiting access to economic opportunity.	决策者不应该向极化和瘫痪低头，而应该促进增强增长和生产率的基础设施投资，以极低利率为这些投资融资，升级劳动力市场改革，并致力于解决让获得经济机会变得越来越难的日益加剧的收入和财富不平等问题。


Likewise, policymakers should be revamping incoherent and inconsistent tax structures that are riddled with unfair exemptions.	类似地，决策者应该改进充斥着不公平豁免的不合逻辑、互相矛盾的税收结构。


And they should be pursuing immigration reform to overhaul a system that penalizes talent, encourages malfeasance, and, as illustrated by the thousands of migrants who have drowned in the Mediterranean Sea in recent years while trying to reach Europe, often leads to human tragedy.	他们还应该追求移民改革以改变惩罚人才、鼓励渎职的制度，而近几年来成千上万移民在通往欧洲的过程中沉于地中海更是证明了现行移民政策常常导致人道悲剧。


Despite widespread dissatisfaction with political institutions in many Western countries – the US Congress, for example, has very low approval ratings – it is difficult to see what will break the current logjam.	尽管许多西方国家的政治制度存在各种各样令人不满之处——如美国国会极低的批准率——但很难看到打破当前僵局的迹象。


Within established parties, forces promoting rejuvenation are weak and uneven.	在老牌政党内部，促进恢复活力的力量很弱并且不平衡。


Add to that an increasingly polarized and quasi-tribal news media, which can amplify divisions in society, and the scope for collaborative transformation is extremely limited.	此外，媒体日益极化和准种族化（quasi-tribal）它有可能加剧社会分裂，而合作式转型的空间极为有限。


For their part, many of the fringe parties, despite their rising popularity, are struggling to achieve power, a challenge illustrated in the recent British election.	对许多边缘政党来说，尽管支持率在上升，但它们仍难以获得权力，最近的英国选举证明了这一点。


And those that succeed, such as Syriza, quickly become frustrated by the largely immovable systems in which they must operate – a situation that their lack of governing experience makes all the more difficult.	至于取得了成功的边缘政党，比如左翼联盟党，则需要面对几乎不可动摇的系统，令它们无所适从——而缺乏执政经验让它们更加举步维艰。


Over time, Western political systems will evolve to meet the needs of their economies.	随着时间的推移，西方政治体系将逐渐演化以符合经济的需要。


But, in the interim, the vast majority of companies and households will have to cope with systems that do relatively less to help them reach their potential, placing them at a disadvantage vis-à-vis competitors operating in more supportive systems.	但是，在中期，绝大部分公司和家庭将不得不面对一个更少支持他们实现潜力、让他们在面对位于更加支持性的体系的竞争对手时处于劣势的体系。


To some extent, technological innovation will pick up the slack, as it empowers individuals and companies to live more self-directed lives, creating pockets of excellence and wellbeing.	在一定程度上，技术创新能够起到提振作用，因为它让个人和公司能够过上更加自主的生活，创造美德和福祉。


But, while this is good news for some, it is inadequate to arrest the rising inequality of income, wealth, and opportunity – or to unleash the inclusive prosperity that Western economies can and should be generating.	但是，尽管这对某些人来说是好消息，但它不足以解决收入、财富和机会不平等性加剧的问题——也不足以带来西方经济可以和应该形成的包容性繁荣。


Fed Up with the Fed	受够了美联储


NEW YORK – At the end of every August, central bankers and financiers from around the world meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the US Federal Reserve’s economic symposium.	纽约—每年8月底，各国央行行长和金融家都会来到怀俄明州杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）参加美联储经济研讨会。


This year, the participants were greeted by a large group of mostly young people, including many African- and Hispanic Americans.	今年，与会者受到了一大群主要是年轻人的“欢迎”，包括许多非洲裔和西班牙裔美国人。


The group was not there so much to protest as to inform.	这群人在那里不是为了抗议，是为了通知。


They wanted the assembled policymakers to know that their decisions affect ordinary people, not just the financiers who are worried about what inflation does to the value of their bonds or what interest-rate hikes might do to their stock portfolios.	他们希望与会的决策者们知道他们的决定影响着普罗大众，而不只是担心通胀如何影响自己的债券的价值或升息如何影响自己的股票组合的金融家。


And their green tee shirts were emblazoned with the message that for these Americans, there has been no recovery.	而他们的绿色衬衣也印着标语——对这些美国人来说，根本没有什么复苏。


Even now, seven years after the global financial crisis triggered the Great Recession, “official” unemployment among African-Americans is more than 9%.	即使在现在，引发大衰退的全球金融危机已经过去了七年，非洲裔美国人的“官方”失业率仍高于9%。


According to a broader (and more appropriate) definition, which includes part-time employees seeking full-time jobs and marginally employed workers, the unemployment rate for the United States as a whole is 10.3%.	根据更加广义（也更加合适）的定义，即将寻找全职工作的兼职员工临时工也包括进来，那么美国的整体失业率为10. 3%。


But, for African-Americans – especially the young – the rate is much higher.	但是，对非洲裔美国人——特别是年轻人——这一比例要高得多。


For example, for African-Americans aged 17-20 who have graduated high school but not enrolled in college, the unemployment rate is over 50%.	比如，对17—20岁高中毕业但没有进入大学的非洲裔美国人来说，失业率超过了50%。


The “jobs gap” – the difference between today’s employment and what it should be – is some three million.	“就业缺口”——当前就业量和应有就业量之差——高达三百万。


With so many people out of work, downward pressure on wages is showing up in official statistics as well.	如此多人失业，这导致官方数据表现出工资下降的压力。


So far this year, real wages for non-supervisory workers fell by nearly 0.5%.	截至目前，今年非管理岗位工人的真实工资下降了近0. 5%。


This is part of a long-term trend that explains why household incomes in the middle of the distribution are lower than they were a quarter-century ago.	这是一个长期趋势的一部分，而这个长期趋势解释了为何位于收入分布中段的家庭的收入比四分之一个世纪前更少了。


Wage stagnation also helps to explain why statements from Fed officials that the economy has virtually returned to normal are met with derision.	���资停滞还有助于解释为何美联储官员关于经济几乎已经恢复正常的说辞导致一片哗然。


Perhaps that is true in the neighborhoods where the officials live.	也许对这些官员所住的社区来说确实如此。


But, with the bulk of the increase in incomes since the US “recovery” began going to the top 1% of earners, it is not true for most communities.	但是，美国“复苏”开始以来收入增长的大部分都流向了收入最顶尖的1%人群，对于大部分社区来说，根本没有复苏。


The young people at Jackson Hole, representing a national movement called, naturally, “Fed Up,” could attest to that.	杰克森霍尔的年轻人可以为证，他们代表着一场全国运动，这场运动的名字自然叫做“受够了”（Fed Up，Fed也是美联储的缩写）。


There is strong evidence that economies perform better with a tight labor market and, as the International Monetary Fund has shown, lower inequality (and the former typically leads to the latter).	强有力的证据表明，劳动力市场状况较紧时，经济表现更好，而国际货币基金组织（IMF）证明，不平等性程度越低，经济表现也越好（劳动力市场状况较紧也常常意味着不平等性程度较低）。


Of course, the financiers and corporate executives who pay $1,000 to attend the Jackson Hole meeting see things differently: Low wages mean high profits, and low interest rates mean high stock prices.	当然，花1,000美元出席杰克森霍尔会议的金融家和公司高管有不同看法：低工资意味着高利润，低利率意味着高股价。


The Fed has a dual mandate – to promote full employment and price stability.	美联储肩负着双重使命——促进充分就业和物价稳定。


It has been more than successful at the second, partly because it has been less than successful at the first.	它在第二个目标上做得很好，这部分是因为它在第一个目标上做得很差。


So why will policymakers be considering an interest-rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting?	那么，为何决策者要在美联储9月的会议上考虑升息？


The usual argument for raising interest rates is to dampen an overheating economy in which inflationary pressures have become too high.	升息的常见理由是为了抑制经济过热。 经济过热导致通胀压力过高。


That is obviously not the case now.	这显然不是目前的情况。


Indeed, given wage stagnation and the strong dollar, inflation is well below the Fed’s own 2% target, not to mention the 4% rate for which many economists (including the International Monetary Fund’s former chief economist, Olivier Blanchard) have argued.	事实上，在工资停滞和强势美元的背景下，通胀远低于美联储本身2%的目标，更不用说许多经济学家（包括IMF前首席经济学家奥利弗·布兰查德（Olivier Blanchard））所认为合适的4%了。