This would be a terrible mistake in any effort to consolidate Palestine’s new democracy, with a negative impact in other reforming countries in the Arab world.	这将会是在巩固巴勒斯坦新民主的努力中犯下的一个可怕的错误，而且会对阿拉伯世界中其它正在改革的国家造成负面的影响。


Similarly, accepting the right of non-violent Islamists to participate in public life does not mean giving up on the political and ideological struggle to defeat ultra-conservative, and in some cases totalitarian, conceptions of society.	同样地，接受非暴力的伊斯兰主义者参与公共生活的权利并不意味着放弃挫败极端保守主义、以及在某些情况下的极权主义社会观念的政治和意识形态斗争。


Combating racism, promoting tolerance, and respecting the religious sentiments of others does not mean that we need to question press freedom or accept Islamists’ demands for censorship, even when real religious sentiments are offended, as in the case of the Danish caricatures.	打击种族主义、促进宽容以及尊重他人的宗教情感并不意味着我们需要质疑报业自由或者接受伊斯兰主义者的审查要求，即使是触犯了真实的宗教情感，正如丹麦讽刺画的情况一样。


Islamist conceptions of society that violate individual rights must be rebutted politically.	我们必须在政治上驳斥触犯个人权利的伊斯兰社会观念。


That political challenge is one of the paradoxes of democracy, which allows all ideas to compete freely with each other.	这一政治挑战是民主悖论之一，所谓民主悖论就是允许各方都各抒己见、自由争鸣。


Political Islam is a risk, but we can minimize it only by devising intelligent, case-sensitive strategies that promote democracy, not by denouncing the results of democratic choice.	政治伊斯兰是一个风险，但是，我们只有通过制定出促进民主、对环境敏感的智能型战略，而不是职责民主选择的结果才能将这一风险降低到最小程度。


The Joblessness Threat	失业的威胁


NEW YORK – Recent data suggest that job market conditions are not improving in the United States and other advanced economies.	纽约——最近的数据显示，美国和其他发达经济体的就业市场情况尚未好转。 美国目前失业率为9.


In the US, the unemployment rate, currently at 9.5%, is poised to rise above 10% by the fall. It should peak at 11% some time in 2010 and remain well above 10% for a long time.	5%，预计到今年秋季超过10%，2010年见顶，达到11%，之后相当长一段时间维持在10%以上。


The unemployment rate will peak above 10% in most other advanced economies, too.	其他发达经济体的失业率大多也将超10%。


These raw figures on job losses, bad as they are, actually understate the weakness in world labor markets.	上述失业率的初步数据已经够严峻了，可实际上它们还是 低估了 世界劳动力市场的疲软状况。


If you include partially employed workers and discouraged workers who left the US labor force, for example, the unemployment rate is already 16.5%.	比方说，如果把非全日制雇工和就业意愿丧失者（discouraged workers）也计算在内，美国的失业率就会高达16.


Monetary and fiscal stimulus in most countries has done little to slow down the rate of job losses.	5%。 各国的货币和财政刺激，大多对缓解失业压力作用寥寥。


As a result, total labor income – the product of jobs times hours worked times average hourly wages – has fallen dramatically.	其结果是，劳动力总和收入——工作岗位数乘以工作小时数乘以每小时平均工资——下降的幅度很大。


Moreover, many employers, seeking to share the pain of recession and slow down layoffs, are now asking workers to accept cuts in both hours and hourly wages.	此外，为了找人分担经济衰退的痛苦，也为了尽量避免裁员，许多雇主都试图让员工接受缩短工时和削减每小时工资的办法。


British Airways, for example, has asked workers to work for an entire month without pay.	例如，英国航空（British Airways）居然号召员工无偿劳动整整一个月。


Thus, the total effect of the recession on labor income of jobs, hours and wage reductions is much larger.	综合考虑此次衰退所造成的就业、工时和工资缩减，其对劳动力收入的总体影响比单单考虑失业要大得多。


A sharp contraction in jobs and labor income has many negative consequences on both the economy and financial markets.	就业和劳动力收入的急剧缩减对实体经济和金融市场都会造成许多负面影响。


First, falling labor income implies falling consumption for households, which have already been hard hit by a massive loss of wealth (as the value of equities and homes has fallen) and a sharp rise in their debt ratios.	首先，劳动力收入下降意味着，由于严重财富缩水（股票、房产贬值）和负债率急剧上升而遭受重创的居民消费还将继续下滑。


With consumption accounting for 70% of US GDP in the US, and a similarly high percent in other advanced economies, this implies that the recession will last longer, and that economic recovery next year will be anemic (less than 1% growth in the US and even lower growth rates in Europe and Japan).	鉴于消费对美国GDP的贡献率高达70%，在其他发达经济体也差不多高，可以想见衰退将持续较长时间，而且明年的经济复苏将是软弱无力的（美国增长1%，欧洲和日本甚至更低）。


Second, job losses will lead to a more protracted and severe housing recession, as joblessness and falling income are key factors in determining delinquencies on mortgages and foreclosure.	第二，失业会延长房产市场的严重衰退，因为失业和收入下降是导致按揭断供和止赎的主要因素。


By the end of this year about 8.4 million US individuals with mortgages will be unemployed and unable to service their mortgages.	到今年年底，将有840万肩负按揭债务的美国人因失业而丧失偿还能力。


Third, if you plug an unemployment rate of 10% to 11% into any model of loan defaults, you get ugly figures not just for residential mortgages (both prime and subprime), but also for commercial real estate, credit cards, student loans, auto loans, etc.	第三，如果把10%~11%的失业率延伸到其他信贷领域，将会得到同住房按揭（不论是优级按揭还是次级按揭）一样悲观的数字，比如商业地产、信用卡、教育贷款、购车贷款等等。


Thus, banks losses on their toxic assets and their capital needs will be much larger than recently estimated, which will worsen the credit crunch.	银行的有毒资产损失和拨备资本金将大大超过目前估计的水平，从而导致更严重的信贷紧缩。


Fourth, rising job losses lead to greater demands for protectionist measures, as governments are pressured to save domestic jobs.	第四，失业率升高导致保护主义呼声抬头，有关方面会向政府施压，要求政府挽救国内就业。


This threatens to aggravate the damaging contraction of global trade.	这会加剧全球贸易萎缩所造成的损害。


Fifth, the higher the unemployment rate goes, the wider budget deficits will become, as automatic stabilizers reduce revenue and increase spending (for example, on unemployment benefits).	第五，失业率越高，则政府预算赤字越大，因为经济当中的一些自动稳定器会减少政府岁入而增加政府支出（例如失业者福利方面的支出）。


Thus, an already unsustainable US fiscal path, with budget deficits above 10% of GDP and public debt expected to double as a share of GDP by 2014, becomes even worse.	这是给已经不堪重负的美国财政雪上加霜，美国的预算赤字已超GDP的10%，公共债务到2014年预计达到GDP的两倍。


This leads to a policy dilemma: rising unemployment rates are forcing politicians in the US and other countries to consider additional fiscal stimulus programs to boost sagging demand and falling employment.	上述情形使政策陷入两难境地：失业率上升使得美国和别国的政治家不得不考虑出台新的财政刺激计划以提振萎靡的需求和疲软的就业。


But, despite persistent deflationary pressure through 2010, rising budget deficits, high financial-sector bailout costs, continued monetization of deficits, and eventually unsustainable levels of public debt will ultimately lead to higher expected inflation – and thus to higher interest rates, which would stifle the recovery of private demand.	但是，尽管通缩压力将一直持续到2010年，预算赤字的不断扩大、救助金融业的高昂成本、赤字的持续货币化以及终将不可持续的公共债务最终还是会导致预期中的高通胀，从而导致高利率，进而窒息私人需求的复苏。


So, while further fiscal stimulus seems necessary to avoid a more protracted recession, governments around the world can ill afford it: they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.	所以，虽然进一步出台财政刺激似乎是避免一场漫长衰退的必要选择，但是世界各国政府的具体操作可能会引发问题：做也不是，不做也不是。


If, like Japan in the late 1990’s and the US in 1937, they take the threat of large deficits seriously and raise taxes and cut spending too much too soon, their economies could fall back into recession.	如果像20世纪90年代的日本或者1937年的美国那样，认为巨额赤字是个严重的威胁，从而过早且过大幅度地增加税收削减开支，那么其经济就可能重新滑入衰退。


But recession could also result if deficits are allowed to fester, or are increased with additional stimulus to boost jobs and growth, because bond-market vigilantes might push borrowing costs higher.	然而听任赤字无限扩大或在提振就业和增长的进一步刺激过程中不断累积也会招致衰退，因为债券市场上的“志愿巡逻队”会把借贷成本推得老高。


Thus, even as mounting job losses undermine consumption, housing prices, banks’ balance sheets, support for free trade, and public finances, the room for further policy stimulus is becoming narrower.	因此，即使高企的失业水平会打击消费、房价、银行资产负债表、对自由贸易的支持以及公共财政，进一步出台刺激政策的空间正变得越来越小。


Indeed, not only are governments running out of fiscal bullets as debt surges, but monetary policy is having little short-run traction in economies suffering insolvency – not just liquidity – problems.	说真的，债务高企不仅让政府打光了财政弹药，也使货币政策的短期效应大打折扣，因为折磨当前经济的不仅是流动性问题，更严重的是资不抵债的问题。


Worse still, in the medium turn the monetary overhang may lead to significant inflationary risks.	更糟的是，从中期来看，货币超发将导致严重的通胀风险。


Little wonder, then, that we are now witnessing a significant correction in equity, credit, and commodities markets.	这也就难怪股票、信贷和商品市场正在经理一次重大调整了。


The irrational exuberance that drove a three-month bear-market rally in the spring is now giving way to a sober realization among investors that the global recession will not be over until year end, that the recovery will be weak and well below trend, and that the risks of a double-dip W-shaped recession are rising.	在今年春季推动一轮3个月熊市反弹的非理性繁荣如今已经消退，投资者开始比较清醒地意识到全球衰退将一直持续到年底，而之后的复苏也将是软弱无力的——一个双底W形衰退的风险正在日益加剧。


The Judicial Massacre of Srebrenica	斯雷布雷尼察的司法大屠杀


The judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) concerning Serbia’s involvement in the massacre of Bosnian Muslims at Srebrenica in 1995 should be greeted with considerable ambivalence.	对于国际法院关于塞尔维亚介入1995年发生在斯雷布雷尼察的对波斯尼亚穆斯林的大屠杀的裁决，我们完全应该从正反两方面来看待。


On the one hand, the fact that an international tribunal has pronounced on the responsibility of a state in the matter of genocide is an undeniably positive development.	一方面，一个国际法庭判决一个国家在一起种族灭绝的事件中负有责任，这毫无疑问是一个积极的进展。


On the other hand, however, the Court’s decision is one of those judicial pronouncements that attempts to give something to everybody and leave everything as it was.	但是另一方面，法院的判决像其他那些法庭判决一样试图能给每一个人一点什么东西，但是到头来却什么都没给。


The Court was not supposed to hold specific individuals criminally responsible; that is the job of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).	国际法院不会裁定某些特定的人在刑事上负责； 那是前南斯拉夫国际刑事法庭的工作。


The ICJ, which instead deals with controversies between states, was faced with Bosnia’s claim that Serbia was responsible for the Srebrenica massacre.	处理国与国之间争端的国际法院，面临波斯尼亚对于塞尔维亚对斯雷布雷尼察大屠杀负有责任的指控。


Although the Court ruled that genocide had taken place, it decided that Serbia was not responsible under international law.	尽管法院判定确实发生了种族灭绝的事件，但是它裁定根据国际法塞尔维亚没有责任。


According to the Court, the Bosnian Serb generals who were guilty of this genocide, the various Mladic’s and Kristic’s, were neither acting as Serbia’s agents nor receiving specific instructions from Belgrade.	根据法院的判决，在这次种族灭绝中有罪的波斯尼亚塞族将军马尔维奇、克里斯蒂奇以及其他此类的人，既不是塞尔维亚的代理人也没有从贝尔格莱德接受任何特别的指令。


The genocide could not therefore be imputed to Serbia, even if the Serbian government was paying salaries to Mladic and his colleagues, as well as providing them with financial and military assistance.	因此这次种族灭绝并不能归罪于塞尔维亚，即便塞尔维亚政府为马尔维奇和他的同僚们支付薪水，同时也给他们提供财政和军事援助。


Nor was Serbia guilty of complicity, because, though it exercised considerable influence over Mladic and his people, it did not know, at the moment when the genocide was taking place that such a crime was being committed.	塞尔维亚也不是共犯，因为尽管它对马尔维奇和他的同僚们有巨大的影响力，但是在种族灭绝发生时，它并不知道正在发生这样的一起罪行。


Having “absolved” Serbia from the principal crime, the ICJ offered a sort of “consolation prize” to Bosnia, affirming that the killings in Srebrenica had the character of genocide – a conclusion already reached by the ICTY.	在“赦免”了塞尔维亚主要的罪行后，国际法院给了波斯尼亚一点“安慰性的奖励”，即确认发生在斯雷布雷尼察的屠杀具有种族灭绝的性质。 这个结论前南斯拉夫国际刑事法庭早就已经作出了。


Moreover, according to the ICJ, Serbia violated international law by failing to prevent genocide, because, though it could have thwarted the massacres, it did not, and subsequently did not help the ICTY arrest Mladic (who, notoriously, is still hiding in Serbia).	国际法院此外还裁定塞尔维亚因为没能阻止种族灭绝的发生而违反了国际法，因为它本来应该可以阻止大屠杀的发生，但是它没有做到，此后又没有帮助前南斯拉夫国际刑事法庭逮捕马尔维奇。 而且众所周知，他依然躲藏在塞尔维亚。


The Court’s decision thus attempts to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.	法院的判决试图做到两面讨好。


To decide whether Mladic acted on Serbia’s account when he was planning and ordering the Srebrenica massacre, the Court demanded proof that Serbian officials sent him specific “instructions” to commit this act of genocide.	为了裁定马尔维奇在计划以及下令进行斯雷布雷尼察大屠杀时是否是按照塞尔维亚的指令行事，法院要求提供证据表明塞尔维亚的官员给他发出了下令进行种族灭绝的明确“指令”。


Obviously, such instructions would never be found.	显然，这种指示是永远不会被发现的。


Why was it not enough to prove that the Bosnian Serb military leadership was financed and paid by Serbia and that it was tightly connected to Serbia political and military leadership?	为什么波斯尼亚塞族军事领导人接受塞尔维亚的财政资助、由其支付工资、并且还与塞尔维亚的政治和军事领导人关系密切还不足以证明呢？


More importantly, the ICJ’s decision that Serbia is responsible for not having prevented a genocide in which it was not complicit makes little sense.	更重要的是，国际法院关于塞尔维亚对没能阻止种族灭绝的发生负有责任而非共犯的裁决几乎没有什么意义。


According to the Court, Serbia was aware of the very high risk of acts of genocide and did nothing.	根据法院的裁定，塞尔维亚清楚有发生种族灭绝行动的高度危险，但是却袖手旁观。


But Serbia was not complicit, the Court argued, because “it has not been proven” that the intention of committing the acts of genocide at Srebrenica “had been brought to Belgrade’s attention.”	但是法院辩解说，塞尔维亚在这里并非共犯，因为“没有证据表明”在斯雷布雷尼察进行种族灭绝的意图“向贝尔格莱德进行了通告”。


This is a puzzling statement at best.	这真是一个令人费解的判决。


The massacre was prepared in detail and took place over the course of six days (between July 13 and 19).	大屠杀是作了详细的准备，并且是在六天的时间内（从7月13日到7月19日）发生的。


Is it plausible that the Serbian authorities remained in the dark while the killing was in progress and reported in the press all over the world?	说塞尔维亚当局在屠杀发生时、并且全世界都对此进行了报道的过程中却一直蒙在鼓里能让人信服吗？


It seems far more reasonable to believe that Serbia’s leaders were informed about what was going on, and that, despite this, Serbia’s military, financial, and political assistance to Mladic was never interrupted.	更合理的情况也许应该是塞尔维亚的领导人在事件发生的整个过程中都一直对情况了如指掌，并且尽管如此，塞尔维亚对于马尔维奇的军事、财政和政治支持一直没有中断。


The fundamental problem with the ICJ’s decision is its unrealistically high standard of proof for finding Serbia to have been legally complicit in genocide.	国际法院的裁决的最根本的问题在于它为找到塞尔维亚在种族灭绝中在法律上属于串通共谋的证据设定了高得不现实的标准。


After all, one can also be guilty of complicity in a crime by not stopping it while having both the duty and the power to do so, and when, through one’s inaction, one decisively contributes to the creation of conditions that enable the crime to take place.	不管怎样，如果一个人既有义务又有权力去阻止一起犯罪却没有去阻止，并且因为他的不作为，从而为犯罪的发生决定性地创造了有利的条件，那么他就是共犯。


The survivors of Srebrenica, for whom Bosnia was seeking damage awards, will receive nothing from Serbia.	波斯尼亚正是为斯雷布雷尼察大屠杀的幸存者们寻求损害赔偿，但是他们将不会从塞尔维亚那里得到任何东西。


And if former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic were alive, he would be absolved of the charge of genocide.	如果塞尔维亚前总统米洛舍维奇还活着的话，他也会被判决对于种族灭绝无罪。


The Keynes-Hayek Rematch	凯恩斯-哈耶克重上擂台


LONDON – The Austrian economist Friedrich von Hayek, who died in 1992 at the age of 93, once remarked that to have the last word requires only outliving your opponents.	发自伦敦——奥地利经济学家弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克曾说，在论战中战胜对手的唯一方式就是活得比对方命长，他也身体力行，最终在1992年以93岁高龄谢世。


His great good fortune was to outlive Keynes by almost 50 years, and thus to claim a posthumous victory over a rival who had savaged him intellectually while he was alive.	而哈翁最幸运的地方莫过于比对手凯恩斯多活了近50年，虽然后者在世时在学术上对他大肆抨击，但他却最终赢得了一场后发制人的胜利。


Hayek’s apotheosis came in the 1980’s, when British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher took to quoting from The Road to Serfdom (1944), his classic attack on central planning.	哈耶克于1944年出版了批判中央计划体制的经典之作《通往奴役之路》，而当时任英国首相的撒切尔夫人在1980年代引用书中某些观点时，他的声誉也随之到达了顶峰。


But in economics there are never any final verdicts.	但在经济学永远没有定局。


While Hayek’s defense of the market system against the gross inefficiency of central planning won increasing assent, Keynes’s view that market systems require continuous stabilization lingered on in finance ministries and central banks.	当哈耶克指出中央计划臃肿低效，并以此为市场辩护的理论日渐流行之时，凯恩斯认为市场需要持续干预以保持稳定的观点则得到了各国财政部和中央银行的认同。


Both traditions, though, were eclipsed by the Chicago school of “rational expectations,” which has dominated mainstream economics for the last twenty-five years.	但这两大流派都在芝加哥学派“理性预期”理论的光芒下黯然失色，后者在过去25年内统治了整个主流经济学界。


With economic agents supposedly possessing perfect information about all possible contingencies, systemic crises could never happen except as a result of accidents and surprises beyond the reach of economic theory.	该理论认为只要所有经济部门都能充分了解所有可能出现的突发事件，那么除非出现某些超出现有经济学理论范畴之外的意外事件，否则系统性危机永远不会发生。


The global economic collapse of 2007-2008 discredited “rational expectations” economics (though its high priests have yet to recognize this) and brought both Keynes and Hayek back into posthumous contention.	虽然某些领军人物依然不愿承认，但2007~2008年的全球金融危机已经使“理性预期”经济学颜面尽失，并使凯恩斯和哈耶克这两大理论重新回到了后发制人的擂台上。


The issues have not changed much since their argument began in the Great Depression of the 1930’s.	论战的内容也跟1930年大萧条时大同小异。


What causes market economies to collapse?	究竟是什么导致了市场的崩溃？


What is the right response to a collapse?	正确的应对方式是什么？


What is the best way to prevent future collapses?	又如何防止未来的崩溃事件？


For Hayek in the early 1930’s, and for Hayek’s followers today, the “crisis” results from over-investment relative to the supply of savings, made possible by excessive credit expansion.	对于1930年代初期的哈耶克以及他当今的信徒来说，“危机”来自于与储蓄供应相关的过度投资，同时会在过度信贷扩张下爆发。


Banks lend at lower interest rates than genuine savers would have demanded, making all kinds of investment projects temporarily profitable.	银行贷款利率低于那些储户所要求的存款利率，使得所有贷款投资项目在短期看来都有利可图。


But, because these investments do not reflect the real preferences of agents for future over current consumption, the savings necessary to complete them are not available. They can be kept going for a time by monetary injections from the central bank.	但由于这类投资未能反映机构在当期消费下对未来的真实偏好，因此完成这些投资所必需的储蓄也并不存在。


But market participants eventually realize that there are not enough savings to complete all the investment projects. At that point, boom turns to bust.	虽然在中央银行的货币注入下还能继续维持一段时间，但市场参与者最终会意识到没有足够的储蓄去完成所有投资，于是泡沫开始破灭。


Every artificial boom thus carries the seeds of its own destruction.	因此每个人为推动的泡沫内部同时都潜藏着自我毁灭的种子。


Recovery consists of liquidating the misallocations, reducing consumption, and increasing saving.	泡沫破灭后的工作则包括清理那些错误分配的投资，减少消费以及增加储蓄。


Keynes (and Keynesians today) would think of the crisis as resulting from the opposite cause: under-investment relative to the supply of saving – that is, too little consumption or aggregate demand to maintain a full-employment level of investment – which is bound to lead to a collapse of profit expectations.	而凯恩斯（以及如今的凯恩斯主义者）则认为危机来自于一个截然相反的根源：与储蓄供应有关的投资不足——就是消费或者总需求过低，不足以维持一个满足全员就业的投资——而这也必定会导致一场收益预期的崩溃。


Again, the situation can be kept going for a time by resorting to consumer-debt finance, but eventually consumers become over-leveraged and curtail their purchases.	这种情况也能通过消费信贷的方式来维持一段时间，但最终消费者将变得过度杠杆化并终止消费。


Indeed, the Keynesian and Hayekian explanations of the origins of the crisis are actually not very different, with over-indebtedness playing the key role in both accounts. But the conclusions to which the two theories point are very different.	事实上凯恩斯和哈耶克两人对危机根源的解释区别不大，都将过度负债放在核心位置，只不过由此衍生出来的结论却是南辕北辙。


Whereas for Hayek recovery requires the liquidation of excessive investments and an increase in consumer saving, for Keynes it consists in reducing the propensity to save and increasing consumption in order to sustain companies’ profit expectations.	当哈耶克认为危机复苏需要清理过度投资以及增加消费者储蓄的时候，凯恩斯则认为必须抑制储蓄倾向并增加消费以维持企业的收益预期。


Hayek demands more austerity, Keynes more spending.	哈耶克号召厉行节约，凯恩斯却呼吁大手花钱。


We have here a clue as to why Hayek lost his great battle with Keynes in the 1930’s. It was not just that the policy of liquidating excesses was politically catastrophic: in Germany, it brought Hitler to power.	这里我们找到了为何哈耶��在1930年代那场大论战中输给凯恩斯的线索：这不仅因为清理过度投资的政策堪称政治灾难——希特勒借此染指德国政权。


As Keynes pointed out, if everyone – households, firms, and governments – all started trying to increase their saving simultaneously, there would be no way to stop the economy from running down until people became too poor to save.	而是正如凯恩斯所指出的那样，如果所有社会成员——家庭，企业和政府——同时开始尝试储蓄，那么除非人们到了穷得连钱都存不起的地步，否则根本没有任何办法能阻止经济下滑。


It was this flaw in Hayek’s reasoning that caused most economists to desert the Hayekian camp and embrace Keynesian “stimulus” policies.	哈耶克的这一理论缺陷使得大多数经济学家倒向凯恩斯的“刺激”政策。


As the economist Lionel Robbins recalled: “Confronted with the freezing deflation of those days, the idea that the prime essential was the writing down of mistaken investments and…fostering the disposition to save was…as unsuitable as denying blankets and stimulus to a drunk who has fallen into an icy pond, on the ground that his original trouble was overheating.”	正如经济学家利奥尼尔·罗宾斯回忆的那样：“面对当时那种陷入停滞的通货紧缩，那种认为首先必须处理错误投资……以及推动储蓄行为的理念……就变得不合时宜，就像拒绝给一个掉入冰窟的醉汉提供毛毯和保暖品，因为觉得此人最根本的问题是（身体因饮酒）过热那样。 ”


Except to Hayekian fanatics, it seems obvious that the coordinated global stimulus of 2009 stopped the slide into another Great Depression.	除了那些死硬派哈耶克主义者外，大家似乎都明显看到是2009年的那轮全球同步刺激计划阻止了另一场大萧条的到来。


To be sure, the cost to many governments of rescuing their banks and keeping their economies afloat in the face of business collapse damaged or destroyed their creditworthiness.	虽然为了拯救银行或者维持经济不至于在商业崩溃下沉沦，许多国家都花费巨资并损害或摧毁了自身贷款信誉。


But it is increasingly recognized that public-sector austerity at a time of weak private-sector spending guarantees years of stagnation, if not further collapse.	但人们也日渐认同如果公营部门在私人部门消费不足的情况下收缩支出的话，虽然整个经济将免于崩溃，却也会陷入长期停滞之中。


So policy will have to change.	因此必须要更改政策。


Little can be hoped for in Europe; the real question is whether President Barack Obama has it in him to don the mantle of President Franklin Roosevelt.	在这一点上欧洲希望不大； 真正的问题在于美国总统奥巴马是否会追随前总统富兰克林·罗斯福的脚步。


To prevent further crises of equal severity in the future, Keynesians would argue for strengthening the tools of macroeconomic management.	为了避免未来继续发生同样严重的危机，凯恩斯主义者会坚持强化宏观经济管理手段。


Hayekians have nothing sensible to contribute.	哈耶克主义者则没有任何有价值的建议。


It is far too late for one of their favorite remedies – abolition of central banks, supposedly the source of excessive credit creation.	等到实施他们最喜欢的解决方案——废除被认为是过度信贷源头的中央银行，一切都已经太迟了。


Even an economy without central banks will be subject to errors of optimism and pessimism.	而即便是一个没有中央银行的经济体也难免出现过度乐观或悲观的问题。


And an attitude of indifference to the fallout of these mistakes is bad politics and bad morals.	而对这些问题置之不理的态度无论在政治还是道德上都是不可取的。


So, for all his distinction as a philosopher of freedom, Hayek deserved to lose his battle with Keynes in the 1930’s. He deserves to lose today’s rematch as well.	因此虽然无愧于一个捍卫自由的哲学家，但哈耶克理应在1930年那场与凯恩斯的论战中败北，而且也将输掉如今的这场重赛。


China’s End of Exuberance	中国的繁荣终点


MILAN – China’s growth has slowed considerably since 2010, and it may slow even more – a prospect that is rattling investors and markets well beyond China’s borders.	米兰—自2010年以来，中国的增长大幅放缓，并可能进一步放缓——如此前景让中国国内外投资者和市场大为紧张。


With many of the global economy’s traditional growth engines – like the United States – stuck in low gear, China’s performance has become increasingly important.	全球经济的诸多传统引擎（如美国）早已开启了低速模式，在这样的情况下，中国的表现正变得越来越重要。


But now growth rates for Chinese exports and related indices in manufacturing have fallen, largely owing to weak external demand, especially in Europe.	但如今，中国出口和制造业相关指数的增长率有所下落，主要是拜外部需求（特别是欧洲需求）萎靡所致。


And the Chinese authorities are now scaling back the other major driver of their country’s growth, public-sector investment, as low-return projects seem to generate aggregate demand but prove unsustainable fairly quickly.	而中国当局目前正在削减中国增长的另一主要推进器——公共部门投资的规模，因为低回报项目所形成的总需求很快就会变得不可持续。


The government is using a variety of instruments, including financial-sector credit discipline, to rein in investment demand.	政府动用了包括金融部门信用纪律在内的大量工具抑制投资需求。


Essentially, the government guarantee associated with financing public-sector investment is being withdrawn – as it should be.	从根本上说，政府对公共部门投资融资的担保正在收回——理应如此。


But, to circumvent the restrictions in the state-dominated financial system, a shadow banking system has developed, raising new risks: economic distortions; reliance on excess leverage to drive growth in the consumer, real estate, corporate, and government sectors; and dangers associated with inadequate regulation.	但是，为了绕过国家主导的金融系统的限制，影子银行已经发展起来，孕育了新的风险：经济扭曲； 依赖过度杠杆推动消费、房地产、公司和政府部门的增长；


As a result, investors are worried that China could slip into the excess-leverage growth model that has served many developed economies so poorly.	以及与监管不足相关的危险。 结果，投资者担心中国将滑入过度负债的增长模式，而这正是让发达经济体如今举步维艰的模式。


Much has been made of domestic consumption as a driver of Chinese growth in the future.	中国在使国内消费成为未来增长驱动力方面花了大力气。


But Justin Lin, a former World Bank chief economist, has argued forcefully that investment will and should remain a key growth driver, and that domestic consumption in China’s growth pattern should not be pushed beyond its natural limits into a high-leverage model based on rising consumer debt.	但前世界银行副行长林毅夫强烈指出，投资仍将是、也应该是关键的增长引擎，在中国的增长模式中，国内消费不应该被推动至自然极限之外，进入基于增加消费债务的高杠杆模式。


That seems right.	这似乎是正确的。


The risk is that Lin’s warning will be interpreted as an argument for sticking with an investment-led model, which would imply more low-return public-sector projects and excess capacity in selected industries.	风险在于，林毅夫的警告会被解释为坚持投资导向模式的观点，而投资导向意味着更多的低回报公共部门项目和被选中行业的产能过剩。


The right target for generating growth is domestic aggregate demand based on the right mix of consumption and high-return investment.	创造增长的正确目标是基于消费和高回报投资的正确组合的国内总需求。


Analysts and investors have at least two related concerns.	分析师和投资者至少有两大相关疑虑。


One is that, facing declining growth, policymakers will resort to excess investment or leverage (or both), creating instability.	其一，面临增长趋缓，决策者将求助于过度投资或杠杆（或兼而有之），这会带来动荡。


The other is that they will resort to neither, and that no alternative growth engines will have been started, leading to an extended slowdown with unpredictable political consequences at home and serious economic consequences abroad.	其二，决策者既不求助于过度投资，也不求助于杠杆，也不启动其他替代引擎，导致增长进一步的放缓，带来不可预测的国内政治后果和严重的国外经济后果。


In short, many investors are nervous because China’s future growth story is unclear to them.	简言之，许多投资者之所以紧张，是因为中国的未来增长故事不够清晰。


It is certainly less clear than the previous story, which cannot be retold.	毫无疑问，和过去比起来，未来的增长故事的确要模糊一些，但往日不可追矣。


There is no real way to allay these concerns quickly.	没有迅速安抚这些疑虑的切实办法。


Only time, implementation of the policy and systemic reforms to be revealed this fall, and actual economic performance will settle the matter one way or the other.	只有时间、将于今年秋季公布的系统性改革政策的实施以及实际经济表现能够通过某种方式安抚疑虑。


The shift in the growth pattern, if successful, will occur over several years.	如果成功，增长模式的改变将在数年内发生。


So, what one should be looking for is movement in the right directions, which are fairly clear.	因此，你应该寻找的是朝正确方向的运动，而这相当清晰。


One is a shift in comparative advantage.	其一是比较优势的变迁。


Rising incomes require rising productivity.	工资的增加要求生产率的提高。


That means increasing capital and human capital intensity across both the tradable and non-tradable sectors of the economy.	这意味着增加经济的可贸易和不可贸易部门的资本和人力资本密集度。


On the tradable side, one should look for structural change and a shift in output to higher-value-added components of global supply chains.	在可贸易部门，你应该寻找结构性变化和产出向全球供应链更高附加值部分的变迁。


Here, innovation and the conditions that support it – including competition and free entry and exit from the market – play an important role.	在这方面，创新和支持创新的条件——包括竞争和市场进出自由—���起着重要作用。


If policymakers choose a model based on a large state-dominated sector protected from internal and external competition, innovation objectives are unlikely to be met, adversely affecting future growth.	如果决策者选择基于受内外竞争保护的大规模国家主导部门的模式，那么创新目标不可能实现，未来增长将受到消极影响。


Meanwhile, the non-tradable side should grow.	与此同时，非贸易部门应该增长。


As China becomes richer, its middle-class citizens will not just buy more tradable goods like cars, electronics, and appliances; they will buy housing and a host of non-tradable services, too.	随着中国的变富，其中产阶级公民不但会购买汽车、电子产品和电器等可贸易商品，也会购买住房和一系列不可贸易服务。


An efficient supply-side response to this large and growing source of demand requires regulatory reform in many services, including finance, product safety, transport, and logistics.	对这一规模庞大且不断增长的需求源的高效的供给端响应要求诸多服务业的监管改革，包括金融、产品安全、交通和物流等方面。


But households still control too little income and save at very high rates.	但家庭仍然收入过少、储蓄率过高。


The control of income by the overlapping corporate and public sectors makes it easier to push the investment-led growth model to the point of low (or even negative) returns.	通过重重叠叠的公司和公共部门控制收入使得将投资带动型增长模式推向低回报（甚至负回报）更加容易了。


So the entire fiscal system is a crucial item on China’s reform agenda, especially management of public capital.	因此整体财政系统是中国改革日程的关键项，特别是公共资本管理。


Fiscal reform will determine many things: the components of domestic income and demand that will drive structural change on the supply side, the allocation of income and expenditure across levels of government, and the embedded incentives that this allocation implies.	财政改革将决定很多事情：国内收入和需求的组成（将推动供给端的结构性变化）、各级政府间收入和支出的分配及其所隐含的激励。


Outside of China, this part of the reform agenda is the least well understood.	在中国外部，这部分改革日程最不为人所了解。


Moreover, social services and social security will need to be strengthened in order to reverse a pattern of rising inequality.	此外，社会服务和社会保障需要加强，以扭转不平等性恶化的局面。


Beyond that, more inclusive growth depends on the completion of the urbanization process that underpins the creation of a modern economy; addressing corruption and unequal access to market opportunities; and aggressively mitigating well-known and serious environmental problems.	除此之外，更包容的增长取决于城市化进程的完成情况（创造现代经济的基础）、解决腐败和市场机会不公、大力减轻众所周知的严重的环境问题等因素。


With significant elements of the global economy and external demand facing headwinds, China’s acceptance (so far) of a growth slowdown, while its new growth engines kick in, is a good sign, in my view.	在我看来，全球经济的重要部分和外部需求都不利，中国（目前）接受增长减速同时等待新增长引擎运转起来是个好信号。


It suggests that policymakers are playing for longer-run sustainable growth and have become warier of policies that, if used persistently, amount to a defective, unsustainable growth model.	这表明决策者意在长期可持续增长，对于长期使用会导致有缺陷的不可持续增长模式的政策更加小心翼翼了。


Watching for progress on these key elements of structural change and reform seems to be the right stance.	寻找在这些结构性变化和改革的关键要素上的进步似乎是正确的立场。


If markets are confused or pessimistic about China’s longer-term agenda, but if the direction of structural change and reform is positive, there may be investment opportunities that were absent in the more exuberant recent past.	如果市场混淆了中国的长期日程或对此表示悲观，但结构性变化和改革的方向是积极的，那么将会出现在刚刚过去的较为繁荣的光景中所找不到的投资机会。


The Key to Ending Hunger	终结饥饿的关键问题


EUGENE, OREGON – The recent news that two-thirds of adults in the United States are overweight or obese – and the number continues to grow – brings to mind a question that has bothered me since the 1970’s: Why aren’t we all starving?	俄勒冈州尤金——不久前有关美国三分之二的成年人超重或肥胖，而且肥胖人数还在不断增加的新闻——让人们重又想起了从20世纪70年代以来就一直困扰人类的问题：我们为什么还没被饿死？


It was not that long ago that experts were predicting that our skyrocketing human population would outstrip its food supply, leading directly to mass famine.	就在不久前，专家们还在预测，快速上涨的人口将超过粮食供应的增长速度，从而直接导致大规模饥荒的爆发。


By now millions were supposed to be perishing from hunger every year.	现在本应有每年数百万人死于饥饿。


It was the old doom-and-gloom mathematics of Thomas Malthus at work: population shoots up geometrically while food production lags behind.	这种假说依据的是托马斯·马尔萨斯以前提出的悲惨的计算公式：人口呈几何级数增长，而粮食生产速度则远远滞后。


It makes eminent sense.	这看上去似乎很有道理。


I grew up with Malthus’s ideas brought up-to-date in apocalyptic books like  The Population Bomb .	我是读着将马尔萨斯理论现代化了的 《人口爆炸》 等灾难预警作品长大的。


But someone appears to have defused the bomb.	但似乎有人拆除了这颗炸弹的引信。


Instead of mass starvation, we seem to be awash in food.	不但没有出现大规模饥荒，我们周围似乎还充斥着食物。


And it’s not just the US.	而且出现这种状况的还不仅是美国。


Obesity is on the increase in Mexico.	墨西哥的肥胖人数也在上升。


Fat-related diabetes is becoming epidemic in India.	高血脂引发的糖尿病在印度也开始流行。


One in four people in China is overweight, more than 60 million are obese, and the rate of overweight children has increased almost 30-fold since 1985.	中国四分之一的人口体重超标，6，000多万人患有肥胖症，1985年以来超重儿童的比率增加了近30倍。


Everywhere you look, from Buffalo to Beijing, you can see ballooning bellies.	从布法罗到北京，无论走到哪里都能看到胀鼓鼓的将军肚。


Instead of going hungry, humans around the world on a per capita basis are eating more calories than ever before.	世界各国人口非但没有挨饿，人均摄入的卡路里数量反而比以往任何时候都多。


If you’re looking for reasons behind today’s obesity epidemic, don’t stop with the usual suspects, all of which are being trotted out by the press: fast food, trans fat, high sugar, low exercise, computer games, strange bacteria in your gut, weird molecules in your blood.	如果你想寻找今天肥胖现象背后的罪魁祸首，不要在被媒体屡屡曝光的快餐、反式脂肪酸、高糖、缺乏锻炼、电脑游戏、肠道中的怪异细菌和血液里的奇怪分子等常见现象面前止步。


I personally blame some hardwired human instinct for sitting around eating salty, greasy, sugary snacks in preference to hard physical labor.	我个人认为肥胖应当归咎于某些根深蒂固的人类本能，那就是乐于坐在那里猛吃高盐、高脂、高糖的零食，而不愿从事耗费体力的劳动。


All of these factors are certainly related to the "insidious, creeping pandemic of obesity . . . now engulfing the entire world," as one gung-ho expert recently put it.	正像一位雄心勃勃的专家最近所说的那样，所有这些因素无疑都与“不知不觉中开始流行而且正在遍及整个世界的肥胖症有关。


But they are only bits of the puzzle.	”但这只是谜底的一部分。


The underlying answer is this:  There’s a lot of cheap food around .	不为人知的答案只有一个： 我们身边到处充斥着廉价食品 。


Yes, walk into your local mega-grocery-emporium or just about any food-selling area anywhere in the world and stare the problem in the face.	不错，只要走进当地大型百货商场或全世界任何一个销售食品的区域，就能够直接发现问题。


There’s inexpensive, high-calorie food piled all over the place.	商场里到处都堆满了高卡路里的廉价食品。


Somehow we outsmarted Malthus.	我们在某种程度上打败了马尔萨斯。


Food production has not only kept up with population growth but has managed somehow to outstrip it.	粮食生产没有跟随人口增长的步伐，而是成功地超越了前者。


There are ups and downs from year to year because of the weather, and there are pockets of starvation around the world (due not to a global lack of food, but to a lack of ways to transport it where it’s needed).	虽然由于天气原因每年的粮食产量会有所起伏，但全球饥荒饿死人的现象却鲜有发生（即便发生也不是因为全球粮食短缺，而是因为缺乏把粮食运到所需地方的方式）。


In general, silos are bursting.	总的说来，粮仓都塞得满满的。


Tons of food gets plowed under the ground because there’s so much of it farmers can’t get the prices they want.	因为收成太多，农民无法卖到理想的价格，数以吨计的粮食被埋在地下。


Tons of cheap food (corn, for instance) is used to create more expensive food (like steak).	成吨的廉价粮食（比如玉米）被充作原料生产售价较高的食品（比如牛排）。


Lots of food means lots of grease, and meat, and sugar, and calories.	大量粮食意味着大量油脂、肉类和糖分，还有卡路里。


Lots of food means lots of overweight people.	大量粮食意味着有很多人超重。


If you like the idea of avoiding mass starvation – and I certainly do – you owe thanks to two groups of scientists: one that gave us the Green Revolution back around the 1980’s via strains of hardy, high-yielding grains, and another that figured out how to  make bread out of air .	如果你为避免了大规模饥荒而感到高兴——我当然是这样——你应当感谢两组科学家：他们中的一组在20世纪80年代发明了耐寒、高产系列作物，带来了绿色革命，而另一组则找到了 从空气中生产面包 的方法。


You heard me right.	你没有听错。


If you’re looking for someone to blame for today’s era of plenty, look to a couple of German scientists who lived a century ago.	如果你想要为今天物质丰裕的时代寻找责任人，那么你应当怪罪生活在一百年前的几位德国科学家。


They understood that the problem was not a lack of food per se, but a lack of fertilizer – then they figured out how to make endless amounts of fertilizer.	他们认为问题不在于粮食短缺本身，而在于化肥数量不足——接着他们就发明了一种方法，生产出无穷无尽的化肥。


The number-one component of any fertilizer is nitrogen, and the first of the two German researchers, Fritz Haber, discovered how to work the dangerous, complex chemistry needed to pull nitrogen out of the atmosphere – where it is abundant but useless for fertilizer – and turn it into a substance that can grow plants.	氮是任何化肥中的首要成份，而两位德国研究者中的第一位弗里兹·哈伯发明了危险复杂的化学方法，从空气中提取氮元素。 空气中氮的含量非常丰富，但却无法直接用作肥料——无法转换成能使植物生长的物质。


A first demonstration was made 100 years ago.	100年前进行了首次试验。


Carl Bosch, a young genius working for a chemical company, quickly ramped up Haber’s process to industrial levels.	卡尔·博世是一位在化学企业工作的年轻天才，他迅速将哈伯的研究成果提升至工业应用级别。


They both won Nobel Prizes.	他们两人都获得了诺贝尔奖。


It ranks among the great ironies of history that these two brilliant men, credited with saving millions from starvation, are also infamous for other work done later: Haber, a German Jew, was a central force in developing poison gas in World War I (and also performed research that led to the Zyklon B poison gas later used in concentration camps); Bosch, an ardent anti-Nazi, founded the giant chemical company I.G. Farben, which Hitler took over and used to make supplies for World War II.	这两位杰出科学家在挽救数百万人免受饥荒之苦的同时，却因为各自后来的工作而臭名昭著，这恐怕是历史上最大的讽刺之一：哈伯身为德国犹太人，是一次大战中研发毒气的主要力量（他还参与了齐克隆B毒气的研究工作，这种毒气后来被用于集中营清洗）； 而坚定的反纳粹人士博世则创立了大型化工企业法本公司，该公司后来被希特勒接管，为第二次世界大战生产军用物资。


Today, jaw-droppingly huge Haber-Bosch plants, much refined and improved, are humming around the world, pumping out the hundreds of thousands of tons of fertilizers that enrich the fields that grow the crops that become the sugars and oils and cattle that are cooked into the noodles and chips, pizza, burritos, and snack cakes that make us fat.	今天，骇人听闻的大型哈伯－博世化工厂，经过在工艺方面的提炼和改进仍然活跃在世界各地，制造出数十万吨化肥，肥沃了良田千顷，生产出大量被加工为糖、油、牛肉的粮食作物，这些粮食被加工成面条、薯片、比萨、玉米饼和蛋糕，让我们变得越来越胖。


If you don’t think this work important, consider that half the nitrogen in your body is synthetic, a product of a Haber-Bosch factory.	如果你认为这并不重要，那么想象一下你体内半数的氮元素都来自人工合成，是哈伯－博世工厂的产品。


Or that without the added food made possible by their discovery, the earth could only support about 4 billion people – at least 2 billion less than today.	你还可以想象一下如果没有这项发明增加的粮食产量，地球只能供养约50亿人口——至少比今天的人口少20亿之多。


And yes, before you email me, I understand the concomitant problems: stress on ecosystems, pollution (including nitrogen pollution), etc. etc.	是的，不用你们给我发电子邮件，我也知道有很多问题随之产生：对生态系统的压力、污染（包括氮污染）等等。


But I am an optimist, so instead of moaning I will leave you with some more good news.	但我是个乐观主义者，因此我不会抱怨，而且还有好消息要告诉诸位。


Even with a world population that continues to add tens of millions of new mouths every year, given continuing growth in Haber-Bosch fertilizer and a surprising trend toward a worldwide decline in birth rates (if you live about 50 years longer, according to the best estimates, you’ll see humanity reach zero population growth), it might be within humanity’s grasp to avoid mass starvation forever.	即便全球人口每年继续增加数千万，但考虑到哈伯－博世化肥的持续增长和世界各国出生率令人意想不到的下降趋势（如果你能再活50年，按照最乐观的估计，你就会亲眼见证世界人口出现零增长），人类或许可以永远避免大规模饥荒的发生。


The Key to Stability in South Asia	南亚稳定的关键


NEW YORK – Few places in the world offer as daunting a set of challenges as South Asia.	纽约——世上少有几个地方像南亚般面临着令人生畏的挑战。


A narcotics-fueled insurgency threatens newly democratic Afghanistan.	一场由毒品引发的叛乱威胁着新生的民主阿富汗。


A resurgent Taliban in its tribal areas has destabilized Pakistan.	在部族地区恢复活力的塔利班打破了巴基斯坦的稳定。


The recent carnage in Mumbai has prompted another standoff between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.	不久前在孟买发生的大屠杀致使有核印度和巴基斯坦再次陷入到僵持的局面。


Each of these crises calls for urgent action.  But as a new Asia Society task force argues, in tackling them the world must not lose sight of the great promise of the India-U.S. relationship.	上述所有危机都需要采取紧急对策。 但正如亚洲协会特别工作队所指出的那样，应对危机时世界不应对于印美关系的美好希望视而不见。


Today, both countries stand on the brink of an historic opportunity: a new international relationship that will foster global security, stronger economies, nuclear nonproliferation, and progress in combating climate change.	今天，印美两国都站在历史机遇的边缘：那就是建立全新的国际关系，能在助推全球安全、经济繁荣、核不扩散以及应对气候变化领域取得进展。


But these potential gains will be realized only if US President Barack Obama gives India the attention it deserves, and if both countries broaden the strategic stake by involving their private sectors in issues that governments alone cannot resolve.	但这些潜在的好处只有在美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马给予印度问题以应有的重视，并允许印美两国私有部门参与进来，解决单靠政府解决不了的问题从而加大战略赌注时才有可能实现。


Already, the end of the Cold War and painstaking diplomacy have brought the US-India relationship to a point unimaginable just ten years ago.	冷战的结束和艰苦的外交努力已经把美印关系带到了十年前还不可想象的落脚点。


Both governments now understand each other better, and the two countries’ interests are more aligned than they have ever been.	两国政府的相互理解更加深入，同时两国利益拥有有史以来最多的共同点。


The US presence in Afghanistan highlights the need for stability in South Asia.	美国出兵阿富汗凸显了南亚对稳定的需求。


India’s democracy and burgeoning economy make it a major factor in the Asian balance of power, and the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai underscore a shared struggle against violent Islamic extremism.	印度的民主和急速发展的经济使其成为亚洲力量平衡格局的一个重要因素，而不久前对孟买的恐怖袭击则让人们再次注意到反抗伊斯兰暴力极端主义的共同的斗争。


The recent civil nuclear agreement between the two countries paves the way for cooperation in halting the spread of nuclear weapons.	两国间不久前的民用核协议为合作防止核武器扩散铺平了道路。


At the same time, bilateral trade has soared to more than $40 billion in 2008, from about $12 billion in 1998.	与此同时，双边贸易已经从1998年的约120亿美元猛增到了2008年的400多亿美元。


Even where the two governments continue to disagree – for example, on the Doha round of trade negotiations and on the solution to climate change – the potential for new and creative cooperation outweighs their differences.	即使在两国政府仍然无法达成一致的问题上——比如多哈回合贸易谈判和气候变化解决方案——开展全新创造性合作的潜力也远远超过了他们之间的分歧。


To begin with security, India is a vital piece of the puzzle on questions of stability in Afghanistan and the balance of power in Asia.	先说安全问题，印度是阿富汗稳定和亚洲力量平衡问题中重要的一环。


On global nonproliferation, the US should push for a role for India in next year’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference in order to complete the country’s transformation from being part of the problem to being part of the solution.	在全球核不扩散领域，美国应当在明年的核不扩散协议（NPT）审核会议上力促让印度发挥作用，以便使这个国家从问题的组成部分过渡到成为部分的解决方案。


In terms of counterterrorism, the tragic events in Mumbai present an opportunity to ratchet up intelligence sharing, joint response training, and personnel exchanges to defeat the defining threat of our times.	在反恐怖主义方面，发生在孟买的悲剧事件凸显了推动情报共享、联合反应训练和人员交流以挫败我们这个时代最迫切威胁的真正机遇。


Over the past decade, economics has pulled the US and India closer.	过去10年来，经济拉近了美印之间的关系。


It will continue to power the relationship in the future, even as both countries experience a slowdown during the current economic crisis.	它仍将为未来的关系发展提供动力，即便这两个国家都在当前的经济危机中经历了经济发展速度放缓。


The US should tap India’s potential as an engine for economic recovery, and consult much more closely with it on matters of finance, trade, and investment.	美国应当发掘印度作为经济复苏引擎的潜力，在金融、贸易和投资事务上与其进行更密切的磋商。


In the long run, a global trade agreement will not be completed without India’s engagement.	从长远来看，全球贸易协议没有印度的参与就不会完整。


By getting India into the G-8 and other multilateral institutions, the US can ensure that India’s growing role in the world carries commensurate responsibilities.	通过让印度加入八国集团和其他多边机构，美国能够确保印度在世界发挥更大作用的同时承担起更多的责任。


Beyond government cooperation, the creativity and dynamism of businesses, NGOs and private citizens in both countries hold the key to what India and the US can offer each other and the world.	除政府合作外，美印两国的企业、非政府组织和公民个人的活力与创造力是印美两国相互作用和对世界贡献的关键。


Obama should tap the expertise and energy in the Indian and American private sectors to foster public-private partnerships on complex global problems such as climate change, agricultural transformation, education and HIV/AIDS.	奥巴马应当充分利用印美私有部门的专业知识和能力，在气候变化、农业转型、教育和艾滋病毒/艾滋病等复杂的全球问题上建立起公－私合作的关系。


Consider climate change.	以气候变化问题为例。


Without India, it is hard to imagine a successful conclusion to the 2009 Copenhagen conference to draft a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.	没有印度，很难想象2009年哥本哈根会议能成功起草《京都议定书》的后续协议。


Reaching an agreement will require tough diplomacy, difficult compromises, technological innovation, and changes to our carbon-intensive way of life.	达成一致需要密集的外交努力、艰难的妥协、技术创新和改变我们的碳密集型生活方式。


India and the US are natural partners in meeting this challenge, with innovative scientists and venture capitalists who can take technology breakthroughs from the lab to the market, and NGOs with vast grassroots conservation and public advocacy experience.	印度和美国是迎接这一挑战天然的伙伴，拥有创新的科学家和风险投资家能将技术突破从实验室引入市场，还有非政府组织丰富的草根资源和公众宣传经验。


Similar coalitions can be assembled to dent global poverty by fostering a second green revolution in Indian agriculture, to enhance India’s role in the global economy through vocational and higher education, and to tackle the worldwide spread of AIDS.	此外印美两国还可以结成解决全球贫困问题的类似同盟，发起印度农业的第二次绿色革命，通过职业和高等教育增强印度在全球经济中的作用，并解决在世界范围内蔓延的艾滋病问题。


For too long, the world’s oldest and largest democracies have failed to fulfill the promise of their relationship.	长久以来，全世界最老和最大的民主政体未能充分发掘相互关系中所蕴含的希望。


But if Obama seizes what we believe is a rare historic opportunity this could change decisively – for the long-term benefit of America, India, and the world.	但如果奥巴马抓住我们眼中罕见的历史机遇，就有可能决定性地改变这种状况——并让美国、印度和全世界都从中受益。


The Khmer Rouge in the Dock	被告席上的红色高棉


These days suspected war criminals - from Rwanda to Serbia to Sierra Leone - are in the dock.	从卢旺达到塞尔维亚再到塞拉利昂，现在许多战争罪的嫌疑犯都开始接受审判。


Dozens are still on the run, but hope remains that they, too, will face justice.	虽然还有一些人在通缉之中，但仍有希望将他们绳之以法。


This is not true of the perpetrators of the Cambodian genocide of the 1970's.	然而对于上世纪70年代在柬埔寨制造有计划的种族大屠杀的人，情况却完全不同。


They remain free, and nobody is looking for them.	他们仍然逍遥法外，没有受到通缉。


A quarter of Cambodia's population of eight million was executed, starved to death, or succumbed to disease during the Khmer Rouge's rule from 1975-79.	在红色高棉统治下的1975至79年，柬埔寨四分之一的人口（即200万人）或被处决，或死于饥饿和疾病。


There has been no real trial, no truth commission, and no official acknowledgement of one of the most heinous crimes in human history.	然而对于这人类历史上最不可饶恕的罪行之一却从未有过真正的审判，没有过真相调查，也没有过官方的承认。


As a result, many Cambodians born since 1979 do not understand the scope and gravity of the atrocities.	其结果是许多1979年以后出生的柬埔寨人并不了解这些暴行所涉及的范围和严重程度。


Meanwhile, the anguish and sorrow of survivors - almost all of whom lost loved ones - have not found redress.	而同时，幸存者的痛苦和悲伤-几乎他们所有人都失去了亲人-也没有得到抚恤。


This may be about to change.	这样的情况可能会改变。


A year ago, the United Nations and the Royal Government of Cambodia agreed in principle to establish an "Extraordinary Chambers" composed of Cambodian and international prosecutors and judges to investigate and try the "senior leaders of Democratic Kampuchea and those who were most responsible for crimes" under Khmer Rouge rule.	一年以前，联合国和柬埔寨皇家政府原则上同意组建一个由柬埔寨和国际检察官和法官组成的"特别司法机构"对红色高棉统治时期"民主柬埔寨的高级官员和那些最应该为罪行负责的人"进行调查和审讯。


Ratification of the agreement has been delayed by the stalemate among Cambodia's bickering political parties following last year's elections. But a breakthrough appears close.	虽然该协议的批准由于去年大选以后政党纷争的僵局而被延误，但突破性的进展似乎为时不远了。


The formal decision to create a tribunal for the Khmer Rouge represents a major achievement after a decade of diplomatic effort.	建立一个针对红色高棉的特别法庭的正式决定代表着十年外交努力的重大成果。


To implement it, however, a number of hurdles remain to be overcome.	但要实施这项决定还需要克服一些障碍。


The first obstacle is cost.	第一个障碍是成本。


Cambodian authorities can help build their credibility by curbing the temptation to pad bills and inflate salaries. But outsiders will inevitably bear the lion's share of the budget for the tribunal.	虽然柬埔寨当局可以通过抵制虚报账目和乱涨薪酬的诱惑来建立其可信度，但特别法庭的大部分预算仍不可避免地需要局外人来承担。


The current estimate - $50 million over three years - has shocked donor governments.	现有的估算-在三年内花费5千万美金-已使有意捐助的外国政府大吃一惊。


But this compares favorably with the Special Court in Sierra Leone (more than $70 million over three years), and the $100 million spent annually on the international courts for Rwanda and Yugoslavia.	但与塞拉利昂特别法庭（三年内花费7千万美金）和每年分别花费1亿美金的卢旺达和前南联盟国际法庭相比，这一预算已经不错了。


The price is appropriate.	这一预算是合理的。


The United States and other western governments fueled Cambodia's civil war in the 1970's, then lent the Khmer Rouge legitimacy in the 1980's by insisting that they continue to occupy Cambodia's seat at the UN.	美国和其它西方国家政府在上世纪七十年代为柬埔寨内战火上浇油，而后又在八十年代坚持红色高棉继续占据柬埔寨在联合国的席位从而助其获得了合法地位。


If the Khmer Rouge trials are to proceed, donor countries must see the Extraordinary Chambers as a prudent investment toward a stable and productive Cambodia.	如果对红色高棉的审讯要如期进行，那么捐助国必须将"特别司法机构"视作为柬埔寨的稳定和繁荣而做的明智的投资。


Given how long it has taken to get this far, donors must act quickly to come up with the necessary funds.	鉴于已经花费的时间成本，捐助国必须尽快行动以筹集到所需的资金。


The second hurdle stems from the fact that Cambodia's tribunal will be the first internationalized court in which domestic judges form a majority.	柬埔寨的特别法庭将会是第一个国内法官占多数的国际法庭。 这一事实本身就造成了第二个障碍。


This poses a particular challenge in a country where lawyers were among the targets of genocidal violence, where few sitting judges possess formal legal training, and which has little tradition of judicial independence.	这样的构成在柬埔寨这样的国家更具挑战性。 该国的法官曾是大屠杀的目标，现任法官几乎没有受到过正式的法律培训，而且柬埔寨也几乎没有司法独立的传统。


There is thus concern that some in Cambodia's government - which includes officials who once served under the Khmer Rouge - will seek to hijack the trials for political ends.	因此让人担心的是柬埔寨政府中的某些人-包括曾在红色高棉时期任职的官员-会为了政治目的而试图控制审判。


In order to ensure a credible process, Cambodia and the UN must select judges of the highest caliber, not those that toe a party line.	为了确保审讯程序的可靠性，柬埔寨和联合国必须甄选素质最高的法官而不是那些听命于某个党派的人。


Prosecutors must follow the evidence wherever it leads.	检察官必须遵循证据而行事。


The trials should be conducted transparently and with broad public involvement.	审讯必须在透明和公众广泛参与的情况下进行。


Non-governmental monitors need to scrutinize the proceedings to ensure that errors are identified early enough to be corrected.	非政府的监督人需要对审讯程序进行严格监控以确保尽早发现和纠正错误。


The UN must make clear that it will halt the tribunal if it falls short of international standards.	联合国必须明确表示会在特别法庭达不到国际标准的情况下中断其工作。


The third hurdle is the danger that the Extraordinary Chambers will be regarded as the end rather than the beginning of a long-term search for accountability and legal reform.	第三个障碍是将"特别司法机构"当作是一个寻求责任和司法改革的长期过程的结束而不是开始的危险认识。


Given time and resource constraints, it is unlikely that more than a dozen defendants will be tried.	由于时间和资源的限制，受审的被告大概不会超过12个。


But thousands of others took part in the violence.	但成千上万的人都参与了暴行。


Their many victims will rightly seek some form of accounting - at a minimum, an official record of the crimes they suffered.	他们的受害者有权与之进行某种形式的清算-至少是他们所遭受的罪行的官方纪录。


Before long, an effort to document and publish the truth will be necessary.	记录和公布真相的必要性很快就会凸现出来。


Done properly, the proceedings of the Extraordinary Chambers could have further positive ramifications by contributing to lasting changes in Cambodia's ordinary courts.	如果特别司法机构的工作能够顺利进行，那么它就可能会对柬埔寨普通法院的持久变革产生进一步的积极作用。


By highlighting positive models of judging and legal advocacy, the trials may stimulate public demand for domestic tribunals that dispense justice fairly and effectively.	通过对审理和法庭辩护模式的积极示范效应，这些审讯可能激发公众对能更公正而有效的主持正义的国内特别法庭的需求。


Cambodia's government and international donors should respond to this demand by launching reform programs that extend beyond the life of the Extraordinary Chambers.	柬埔寨政府和国际捐助者应该通过实施在特别司法机构完成使命之后仍继续进行的改革计划来回应这种需求。


The Khmer Rouge prosecutions will not be perfect. But they are necessary.	对红色高棉的起诉不会是尽如人意的，但却是必需的。


Pol Pot died in 1998, but aging senior associates like "Brother Number Two" Nuon Chea and ex-Khmer Rouge president Khieu Samphan live freely in Cambodia.	布尔波特死于1998年，但年老的高层官员如"二号人物"农谢和前红色高棉总理乔森潘仍然自由地生活在柬埔寨。


With sufficient resources, and a determination not to compromise on quality, the Extraordinary Chambers can provide a measure of justice for the victims and an example of law's power to serve the public good.	只要有足够的资源和不委屈求全的决心，"特别司法机构"就能为受害者声张正义并为服务公众的法律的力量树立一个典范。


The Killings in Colombia	哥伦比亚的屠杀


The murder of 11 provincial legislators held hostage by Colombia’s FARC guerrillas is a reminder of that country’s eternal agony.	被哥伦比亚革命武装部队（FARC）民兵扣为人质的11名地方立法委员惨遭杀害使人们想起了那个国家永久的痛。


But strange to say, Colombia is in better shape today than it has been for years, thanks largely to President Alvaro Uribe’s leadership.	但奇怪的是，哥伦比亚今天的局势比以往若干年都好，而这应该感谢阿尔瓦罗·乌里韦·贝莱斯（Alvaro Uribe）总统领导有方。


Of course, as the murders show, Colombia remains a bizarre place, one facing strange and intractable challenges.	当然，正如这次谋杀所显示的，哥伦比亚在很多方面仍然十分怪异，不得不去面对奇怪而又棘手的挑战。


The FARC guerrillas have held some of their kidnapping victims for many years.	有些被绑人质已经被哥伦比亚革命武装部队（FARC）民兵关押了多年。


Child soldiers still linger in paramilitary groups, and there are compromising video recordings of leading Colombian politicians and drug lords.	准军事组织依然在吸收未成年战士，媒体也曾披露过哥伦比亚政客与毒品大鳄妥协的录像资料。


Perhaps weirdest of all, there are imprisoned guerrillas who refuse to be set free, and a government that insists on liberating them, even against their will.	但最奇怪的也许是，被监禁的民兵拒绝获释出狱，而政府却不惜违反他们的意愿，坚持要给他们自由。


Uribe was re-elected just over a year ago by a landslide, a tribute to the popularity and effectiveness of his “democratic security” policy of combating both the guerrillas and the country’s generalized violence.	短短1年多以前，乌里韦凭借压倒性票数再次当选，这不仅因为与民兵和国内一般武装力量斗争的“民主安全”政策具有广泛的群众基础，还因为上述政策确实行之有效。


Latin America’s oldest standing two-party system was decimated in that election, as the Polo Democrático presidential candidate won more votes than the Liberal Party’s contender, finally giving electoral expression to left-wing forces that had never been able to see more potential for change at the ballot box than by fighting in the mountains.	拉丁美洲历史最为悠久的两党制度在那次选举中被摧毁，标志是民主变革中心党（Polo Democrático）的总统候选人比自由党（Liberal Party）竞争者赢得了更多的选票，从而最终赋予了从未在投票箱旁看到过变革潜力的左翼势力通过选举表达自己的机会，而在此之前，他们宁愿选择在深山里打游击。


Negotiations on Colombia’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States had been finalized.	有关哥伦比亚与美国之间自由贸易协定（FTA）的谈判也进入了最后阶段。


Even the questionable deal Uribe cut with the right-wing paramilitary AUC groups, pardoning up to 30,000 of their members for often horrendous crimes in exchange for their disarmament, appeared successful.	即使是乌里韦与右翼准军事化的哥伦比亚联合自卫队（AUC）达成的协议（赦免了30,000名联合自卫队战士犯下的可怕罪行，以换取他们放下武器）似乎也取得了成功。


With Uribe in charge, Colombia seemed to be on a roll.	在乌里韦的领导下，哥伦比亚似乎好运连连。


But much of this success has since been squandered, with both Colombia and Uribe now in deep trouble.	但自此之后很多成果被白白地浪费，导致现在的哥伦比亚和乌里韦麻烦重重。


The so-called parapolítica scandals have rocked Uribe’s government, forcing the resignation of some cabinet ministers, and embarrassing others, including the president himself.	所谓的“ parapolítica ”丑闻撼动了乌里韦政府，迫使内阁部长提出辞呈，也致使其他人（包括总统本人）陷入到尴尬的境地当中。


Photographs, videos, and audio recordings of politicians and paramilitary thugs (including one who boasts of having personally killed more than 300 of his enemies) have discredited a political elite that, while never very popular, has now had some of the worst suspicions that many held about it graphically confirmed.	有关政客和准军事化暴徒（其中一名曾吹嘘亲手杀死了300多名敌人）的照片、录音和录像资料彻底摧毁了某位政界名流的声誉，尽管从未赢得过民众的信任，但真实的图片材料却最终证实了某些人有关于他的最坏的猜疑。


For years human rights activists and scholars suspected the obvious: the emergence of an enormous, vicious, well-armed, and well-trained parallel army to fight the guerillas was not some spontaneous act.	多年以来，人权积极分子及学者一直质疑一个明显的现象：出现规模庞大、穷凶极恶、武器精良、训练有素的军队与民兵作战并非是一种自发的现象。


It was, many believed, a deliberate policy devised and carried out by the official military and the political elite to wage war “off the books.”	很多人相信，这是由正规军和政治精英们特别制定并实施的一种策略，目的是向民兵武装发起一场“非正式”的战争。


The parapolítica or paragate revelations seem to confirm another suspicion as well: the distinction between the paramilitaries and the drug cartels, like that between the guerrillas and the cartels, is a nuanced one.	“ parapolítica ”或“ paragate ”披露的消息似乎确认了另外一种疑惑：准军事力量和贩毒卡特尔之间的界限与民兵武装和贩毒卡特尔之间一样，差别可谓是微乎其微。


Unfortunately, these revelations come at the worst possible moment.	不幸的是，上述事实披露发生的时间却很不恰当。


Colombia’s FTA with the US was in danger the moment the US Republicans lost their majority in both houses of Congress last November.	哥伦比亚与美国的自由贸易协定从共和党去年11月在参众两院失去多数席位起就一直处在危险状态。


Still, it seemed more likely to pass than the other two pending Latin American trade deals with Panama and Peru.	尽管如此，哥伦比亚协议通过的可能性还是大于另外两个拉美国家（巴拿马和秘鲁）的贸易协定。


Now it appears that President George W. Bush’s closest ally in the hemisphere will not only have its FTA rejected, owing to human rights concerns in the US House and Senate. Moreover, it might also lose Plan Colombia, the huge – and hugely controversial – American aid program that has funneled tens of billions of dollars into Colombia since the late 1990’s, ostensibly to fight the drug cartels, but also, in fact, to wage counter-insurgency.	但从目前的情况看，不仅乔治·W·布什总统在北半球最亲密盟友的自由贸易协定由于人权方面的原因在参众两院难获通过，而且同样这位盟友还面临着失去哥伦比亚计划（Plan Colombia）的危险，这项数额巨大、引起争议也异常巨大的美国援助计划从20世纪90年代开始就将成百上千亿美元注入到哥伦比亚，上述资金表面上看是为了对付毒品卡特尔，但实际目的也是为了镇压起义力量。


Uribe has spent weeks directly and personally lobbying key American legislators, and he is undoubtedly his own best advocate.	乌里韦花费了数周时间面对面地直接游说美国的重要立法者，这位哥伦比亚总统无疑是他自己最好的宣传员。


But, just as former US Vice-President Al Gore recently refused to share a dais with Uribe in Miami, many members of Congress refuse to approve a trade agreement or an aid package that may link them to a government tainted by egregious human rights abuses, complicity with drug lords, or both.	但正如前美国副总统阿尔·戈尔前不久在迈阿密拒绝与乌里韦同台演讲一样，很多国会议员都拒绝批准可能把自己与因侵犯人权或与毒品大鳄合谋而臭名昭著、或者兼有上述恶行的遍布污点的政府联系在一起的贸易协定或援助法案。


The US has never really wanted to include human rights issues in trade agreements; at best, and only when forced, US presidents have consented to incorporating labor and environmental chapters.	美国从未真正希望将人权问题纳入到贸易协定，在面对压力的时候，美国总统最多同意添加一些劳工和环境方面的要求。


The European Union thinks differently; in its economic cooperation and free trade agreement with Mexico, for example, it insisted on – and achieved – the inclusion of a “democracy clause” that made its economic benefits conditional on ongoing respect for democratic rule and human rights.	而欧盟的想法却差异巨大，例如在与墨西哥签订的经济和自由贸易协定中，欧盟坚持¾并最终成功写入了“民主条款”，使得对民主规则和人权的一贯尊重成为了获得经济收益的前提。


Colombia’s blemished human rights record is affecting its government’s international standing and providing ammunition for those who wish to sabotage the FTA.	哥伦比亚遍布污点的人权记录不仅影响到哥政府的国际声誉，而且为有意破坏自由贸易协定的力量提供了充足的弹药。


For example, protectionist Democrats in the US Congress have been able to insulate themselves from charges of opposing free trade if they scuttle Colombia’s FTA, because they will most likely ratify the deals for Panama and Peru.	举例来讲，美国国会中赞同保护主义的民主党议员如果能够拒绝批准哥伦比亚自由贸易协定，就可以避免受到反对自由贸易的指责，即使他们很可能批准巴拿马和秘鲁贸易协定也改变不了这样的状况。


Can Uribe survive his current travails?	乌里韦能否渡过目前的困难时期？


The answer is almost certainly yes, unless the parapolítica mess reaches him directly, or the US explicitly rejects the FTA and postpones or attaches conditions to renewal of funding for Plan Colombia.	答案几乎肯定是可以，除非他本人直接陷入“ parapolítica ”困境，或者美国明确否决自由贸易协定，并推迟为哥伦比亚计划提供后续的资金，或者为继续注资提出附加条件。


Uribe’s political demise would hurt everyone, but the rejection of the FTA on human rights grounds could set a healthy precedent.	乌里韦的政治覆灭会让所有人受到伤害， 但出于人权方面的考虑否决自由贸易协定却能够开创健康的先河。


In a region where threats to democracy and human rights are growing, linking trade and economic policy to these considerations is not a bad idea.	在民主和人权历经高速发展的区域，将贸易和经济政策与这些理念挂钩是种不错的选择。


Uribe may not deserve such a fate, but history works in strange ways.	乌里韦也许不该遭受这样的命运，但历史却会以一种奇特的方式发挥作用。


The Kindness of Strangers	陌生人的善行


NEW HAVEN – I admit that it is an unusual way to see the world, but, when reading the newspaper, I am constantly struck by the extent of human kindness.	发自纽黑文——我承认这种观察世界的方式有点奇怪，但当我打开报纸的时候，我总是不断为人类善行的程度所震惊。


The newest bit of good news comes from The Center on Wealth and Philanthropy at Boston College, which estimates that Americans will give about $250 billion in individual charitable contributions in 2010, up several billion from last year.	而最近一条则来自波士顿大学财富与慈善事业研究中心，中心预计美国人将在2010年拿出约2500亿美元的个人慈善捐助，比去年又增长了数十亿美元。


People donate their blood to strangers, travel on humanitarian missions to places such as Haiti and the Sudan, and risk their lives to fight injustice elsewhere.	人们捐血给素不相识的人，奔赴海地和苏丹等地实施人道主义救援，舍身忘死地与其他国家的不公正行为作斗争。


And New Yorkers have grown accustomed to reading about subway heroes – brave souls who leap onto the tracks to rescue fallen commuters and then often slip away, uncomfortable with attention or credit.	而纽约人也越来越对关于地铁英雄的报道司空见惯——那些勇敢的人奋不顾身跳下铁轨营救失足的旅客，却往往在他人安全脱险之后悄悄溜走，不希望引起注意，也不渴望得到表扬。


As a psychologist, I am fascinated by the origin and consequences of such kindness.	作为一名心理学家，我对于这类善行的成因和结果都非常着迷。


Some of our moral sentiments and moral motivations are the product of biological evolution.	我们的某些道德观或者道德动机都是生物进化的产物。


This accounts for why we are often kind to our own flesh and blood – those who share our genes.	这揭示了我们为什么对自己的亲属疼爱有加——因为他们跟我们有着同样的基因。


It also can explain our moral attachments to those we see as members of our immediate tribe.	也揭示了我们为什么同时会对那些自己族群成员的人表示善意。


There is an adaptive logic to being kind to those with whom we continually interact; we scratch their backs, they scratch ours.	依照这个逻辑，我们也会对那些与我们持续互动的人表示友善； 我们帮助他们，他们也会反过来帮助人们。


But there is no Darwinian payoff to sacrificing our resources to anonymous strangers, particularly those in faraway lands.	但是达尔文进化论可解释不了我们为什么会对那些不知名的陌生人释放善意，尤其是那些距离我们国家千里之外的人们。


The explanation for our expanded morality comes from intelligence, imagination, and culture.	而这种道德扩张的原因则来自智力，想象力和文化。


One powerful force is the use of language to tell stories.	其中一个强大的力量就是用语言讲述故事的能力。


These can motivate us to think of distant people as if they were friends and family.	这可以激发我们将遥远的人们想象成自己的朋友和家人。


The vicarious experiences generated by Greek tragedies, televised sitcoms, and newspaper stories have all played an important role in expanding the scope of moral concern.	由古希腊悲剧，电视情景喜剧和新闻故事所带来的间接体验他人痛苦的体验，都在扩张道德范围方面扮演着极为重要的角色。


Another factor is the spread of ideologies, both secular and religious, that encourage us to care for distant others, that persuade us to expand our kindness beyond our immediate circle.	而另外一个因素则是意识形态的传播，无论是世俗还是宗教的，这会鼓励我们去关怀远方的他人，说服我们将自己的善行延伸到生活圈子之外的人。


Even the much-maligned force of capitalism might make us nicer.	即便是资本这种被认为最邪恶的力量也令我们变得更加友善。


A recent study of 15 diverse populations, reported in the journal Science, found that the societies that treat anonymous strangers most fairly are those with market economies.	据《科学》期刊登载的一篇针对15个不同人群的研究报告指出，那些实行市场经济的社会对待陌生人更为公平。


As Robert Wright has emphasized, as people become increasingly inter-dependent, the scope of moral concern expands accordingly.	正如罗伯特·怀特强调的那样，随着人们变得更加互相依赖，道德关注的范围也随之延伸。


Nobody would argue that we are losing the distinction between those who are close to us and distant strangers.	没人会认为我们正日渐模糊亲戚朋友和陌生人之间的区别。


I can’t imagine that this would ever happen.	我也无法想象这一幕的出现。


An individual who didn’t distinguish between his or her own child and an unknown child in a faraway land – who felt the same love and the same obligation toward both – would hardly be human anymore.	一个无法将自己的孩子与异国他乡的陌生儿童区分开来的人——自觉对两者都有同样的爱和责任——大概也就失去人性了。


What has happened, though, is that the distinction between “us” and “them” is not as sharp as it used to be.	而现实中真正发生的，则是所谓“我们”与“他们”之间的界限相对模糊了而已。


The effects of our kindness are not zero-sum.	我们这些善行的效果并不是一场零和博弈。


Those who receive charity have their lives improved, but those who provide it also benefit. It feels good to be good.	那些接受捐赠的人改善了他们的生活，而那些施与者同样也有所得益：做好人感觉真好。


Indeed, one recent study found that spending money on others is more rewarding than spending it on oneself.	事实上，最近有研究显示那些把钱花在别人身上的人比花在自己的身上的受益更多。


It’s not just short-term pleasure: those who donate wealth and time to others tend to be a lot happier in their entire lives than those who do not.	而且这并不是某种短暂的快乐：那些捐赠了财富和时间给他人的人在一生中都会比其他人更快乐。


The paradoxical finding here is that one great trick to being happy is to forget about being happy and instead try to increase the happiness of others.	而最矛盾的发现则在于：如果你想快乐，最好的窍门就是忘记自己的快乐，并将快乐带给别人。


All is not sweetness and light, though; morality is more than compassion and charity.	不过这一切不仅仅是关于愉悦和轻松。 道德也不仅仅是怜悯和慈善。


As moral creatures, we are driven to enforce justice.	作为道德动物，我们也被驱动着去实现公平。


Experimental economists have found that people will sacrifice their own resources to punish cheaters and free riders, and will do this even to anonymous strangers that they will never again interact with – a behavior dubbed “altruistic punishment.”	实验经济学家发现人们会牺牲自己的资源去惩罚那些作弊者和占便宜的人，并会将此施加于那些永远不会与之发生互动的陌生人身上——一种被称为“利他性惩罚”的行为。


There is a pleasure to this as well.	而这种行为同样也能给他们带来快感。


Just as giving to someone in need elicits a positive neural response, so does taking from someone who deserves it.	正如向某人施以援手会触发正面的神经反应，惩罚某个罪有应得的人也会有同样的感觉。


This is the flip side of charity.	但这只是慈善的次要方面。


We are motivated to be kind to anonymous others, but we are also motivated to harm those who treat these anonymous others badly.	我们被驱动去向素昧平生的人表示善意，而这股力量也同样驱动着我们去惩罚那些损害他人利益的人。


This can drive our powerful impulse to deal with distant evils through sanctions, bombings, and war.	这赋予了我们一股强大的动力，让我们用过制裁，轰炸或者战争等手段来惩罚那些千里之外的坏人。


We want these wrongdoers to suffer.	我们就是希望将这些作恶者绳之于法。


The problem that arises is that our gut moral feelings are poorly attuned to consequences.	但问题在于我们本能的道德感是与其产生的后果不协调的。


The patterns of charitable donation to foreign countries often have more to do with the salience of news reports than to actual considerations about where the money is most needed.	对国外慈善捐赠的行为模式通常更着重于新闻成果报道而不是考虑究竟什么地方最需要这笔钱。


And laboratory findings show that people will continue to punish even if they are well aware that doing so is actually making things worse.	而研究也发现人们即便在意识到行为出错的情况下也会继续惩罚他人。


It is not difficult to see the consequences of this in the real world.	在现实世界中也不难发现这样的例子。


The extension of human morality is a wonderful development for humanity, but it would be even better if it were tempered by cold-blooded rationality.	由此可见，人类道德的扩展是人性的一项绝妙进化，但如果能用冷静的理性来调节一下的话，那就更完美了。


The Kremlin Two Step	克林姆林宫的两步走战略


Moscow – Westerners often see Russian politics in terms of a high-level struggle between liberals and conservatives: Ligachev and Yakovlev under Gorbachev; reformers and nationalists under Yeltsin; siloviki and economic liberals under Putin.	发自莫斯科 —— 西方人总喜欢把俄罗斯政治圈的一切事情都解读成自由派和保守派的高层斗争：戈尔巴乔夫时代是 利加乔夫和雅克福列夫之争； 叶利钦治下是改革派和国家主义者互斗；


They also view Russia in terms of a tradition whereby every new tsar partly repudiates the legacy of his predecessor, creating a political thaw at the beginning of a new reign.	到了普京时代则是“西罗维基”（ siloviki , 意指由前苏联安全和军事部门组成的“强力集团”）和经济自由主义者针锋相对。 这些西方人同时也认为俄罗斯政治的传统就是每一个新“沙皇”都力图在一定程度上否定其前任的遗产，因此也会在每一个时代之初迎来一段政治解冻期。


Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization is Exhibit A.	赫鲁晓夫对斯大林的否定就是第一个证据。


Both methods were used to describe the Putin-Medvedev relationship – to understand its nature and dynamic, and what it portends for Russia.	而上述两种思维也被套用到了普京和梅德韦杰夫的关系之上 —— 用来解释两者之间关系的本质和内在动力，以及将为俄罗斯带来什么。


But observers remain puzzled.	但在我看来，这些人都是糊涂虫。


To dismiss Medvedev as a mere Putin puppet, a constitutional bridge between Putin’s second and third presidential terms, would be both unfair and wrong.	如果将梅德韦杰夫解释成仅仅是普京的一个傀儡，一个实现普京第二次，第三次当选总统的宪法跳板的话，那么不但不公平，而且是错误的。


Russia’s third president has a broader role and a distinct function.	作为俄罗斯的第三任总统的梅氏其实承担着更广泛的角色和截然不同的作用。


Conversely, portraying Putin as “a man from the past,” and Medvedev as “a hope for the future,” exaggerates the differences between them and omits the more important factors that unite them.	相反，将普京描述为“明日黄花”，将梅德韦杰夫看作“未来之星”都是夸大了两人之间的差异并忽略了两人得以联合的重要因素。


A better analytical model is needed.	为此我们需要一个更好的分析模型。


For all the apparent freshness of Medvedev’s recent pronouncements, including his now famous article “Go Russia!” – which sounded a clarion call for modernization and liberalism – he is borrowing massively from Putin’s vocabulary of 2000.	从梅德韦杰夫最近发布的一系列讲话中，包括最近热炒的文章《前进吧俄罗斯！ 》 —— 该文看上去像是对现代化和自由主义的动人号召 —— 所表现出的新鲜感看来，梅氏其实是在大量借用普京 2000 年时所使用的词汇。


This suggests that the issue of modernization, which lay dormant throughout the fat years of high oil prices, is back on the Kremlin agenda.	这意味着跟俄罗斯现代化有关的进程，虽然在油价飚升的年月被束之高阁，如今却重新回到了克林姆林宫的政策议程当中。


In 2008, Medvedev was installed in the Kremlin as part of “Putin’s plan,” the substantive part of which was known as “Strategy 2020,” a blueprint for continued economic growth and diversification.	在 2008 年时梅德韦杰夫作为“普京布局”的其中一员被送进了克里姆林宫，而这个“布局”其实有个正式名称叫“ 2020 战略”，是旨在构建一个经济持续发展以及经济门类多样化的国家蓝图。


The intervening crisis only made the Kremlin modify and sharpen its plan.	最近发生的危机仅仅是令克林姆林宫修改并强化了这个计划。


And Medvedev is a key agent in its execution.	而梅德韦杰夫则是整个计划的关键执行者。


Putin chose Medvedev carefully, and not only for his unquestionable loyalty, vitally important as that is.	普京选择梅氏的时候其实是极为谨慎的，不但看中了后者无可置疑的忠心，背后更是有其深刻的考虑。


Putin, among other things, is a combative nationalist, and he wants Russia to succeed in a world of competing powers.	撇开其他一切品质不谈，普京其实是一个好斗的国家主义者，一个希望俄罗斯能在列强环伺的世界上取得成功的人。


He is certainly conservative, but he is also a self-described modernizer.	没错他是个保守派，但他也自认为是一个现代化的推动者。


As such, he might be compared to Pyotr Stolypin, another conservative prime minister who famously asked for 20 years of peace and quiet – mostly from liberals and revolutionaries – to transform Russia. Stolypin never got the chance – a revolutionary assassinated him in 1911 – and neither did Russia, which stumbled into World War I, leading directly to the collapse of the monarchy and the Bolshevik revolution.	因此最好将普京比作彼得·斯托雷平（


Putin wants to finish the job, and much works in his favor.	普京希望能完成这个理想，而且把大多数工作都由自己一力完成。


He is the tsar.	他就是沙皇。


He has both money – the government’s budget and the oligarchs’ fortunes – and the coercive power of the state firmly in his hand.	他既有钱 —— 政府的预算和寡头的财富 —— 又有权，全国的权力都被他紧紧地握在手里。


He is the arbiter at the top and the trouble-shooter in social conflicts below.	他既是最高层的仲裁者，又是下层社会纠纷的调停人。


His most precious resource is his personal popularity, which a flavor of consent to his authoritarian regime.	而普京最宝贵的资源则是他的个人声望，令其得以维持专制统治。


But none of that is good enough.	但上述这一切还是不够的。


The 75% of Russians who make up the Putin majority are essentially passive, and seek only the preservation of a paternalistic state.	那些占全国总人口 75% 的普京支持者在本质上都是消极的，他们只希望能维持一个家长制的国家。


Putin can sit on their support, but cannot ride forward with it. The best and brightest are not there.	普京可以在这些人的支持下稳坐江山，但却无法借这些人的力量继续前进，因为最优秀最聪明的俄罗斯人都不是这群人当中。


Enter Medvedev. His Internet-surfing, compassionate, and generally liberal image helps recruit a key constituency – those beyond the reach of Putin himself – to the Putin plan.	于是梅德韦杰夫便出现了，他上网冲浪的举动，富有同情心的姿态以及大体上自由主义的形象笼络了一批关键的支持者 —— 那些普京所争取不到的人 —— 去执行普京的大计。


Whether the plan succeeds is another matter.	当然这个计划能不能成功则另当别论了。


Conservative modernization is a gamble.	这种保守现代化的做法堪称一场赌博。


To modernize Russia, one must break the stranglehold of corruption, establish accountability, and free the media.	为了使俄罗斯现代化，一位领袖必须冲破腐败的桎梏，建立政府责任体系并开放新闻自由。


At some point, Putin and Medvedev will have to decide. Either they give priority to the survival of the current system and accept Russia’s steady marginalization, or they start opening up the system, putting its survival at risk.	到了某些时候，普京和梅德韦杰夫还必须作出决定，要不就放任俄罗斯现有的政治体系继续存活，并接受俄罗斯持续脱离社会发展进程的现实；


Given the weight of geopolitical factors in Russian decision-making, it is difficult to foretell which path they will choose.	要不就开始着手迫使这个体系走向开放，将��置于覆灭的危险当中。 考虑到地缘政治因素在俄罗斯决策中的分量，在此很难预测两人究竟会选择哪条道路。


Putin is no King Lear.	普京不是昏庸的李尔王。


He understands leadership and control, and does not plan to retire.	他深明领导和控制之道，而且还没打算退休。


But Medvedev, today’s front-office guy, is more of a junior partner than a simple salesperson. He may yet grow in stature and influence, and eventually inherit the store.	但梅德韦杰夫这个当今的政府首脑，则更像是一个年轻的合伙人而不仅仅只是一个推销员，而且将继续增加自己的才干和影响力，以便有朝一日接管整间商店。


One thing is clear, though: he does not like raw meat and the taste of blood.	而有一点是可以肯定的：那就是梅氏对充斥着生肉和血腥味的暴力不感兴趣。


Thus, Putin’s governing pact with Medvedev, his trademark creation, is likely to remain in force.	因此，普京与他的招牌产物 —— 梅德韦杰夫 —— 的治理合作将继续有效。


Both members need each other.	他们两个人都彼此需要，离不开对方。


So the real issue is not whether the noises that Putin and Medvedev make suggest real divergence, and a potential for rivalry, but whether there is daylight at the end of the tandem.	所以真正的问题不是两人之间的一些杂音预示着真正的分歧或者是潜在的敌对，而是这两人的合作是否将为俄罗斯带来光明。


Or, to put it differently, whether they choose modernization or marginalization.	或者换个方式说，他们将选择的，是俄罗斯的现代化，还是边缘化。


The Language of Genomics	基因组语言


DALIAN, CHINA – Last week, a company called Complete Genomics announced 10 new customers for its genome-sequencing service.	中国，大连——上周，一家名叫Complete Genomics的公司公布了基因组排序服务的10名新客户。


The price was not specified, but the company said its goal is to offer the service for $5,000 within a year.	该公司并未对具体价格进行说明，但称其目标是在一年内实现以5，000美元的价格提供这项服务。


What struck me was not the announcement itself, but the name of the CEO: Cliff Reid, the CEO when I knew him in the 1980’s of a text-search company called Verity.	让我印象深刻的不是声明本身，而是首席执行官的名字Cliff Reid，我在20世纪80年代就认识一个Reid，他当时在一家名叫Verity的内容搜索公司担任CEO。


The connection hit me almost immediately.	我几乎立即就想到了这两者间的联系。


Genes are, in a sense, the instruction language for building humans (or any other living thing).	从某种意义上讲，基因是构成人类（或其他任何生物）的指令性语言。


And language is symbols that interact to build meaning.	而语言则是表达意义的符号。


And, yes, of course, it was the same Cliff Reid I knew back in the late 1980’s.	当然，这个人正是我在20世纪80年代认识的那个Cliff Reid。


What Complete Genomics is doing with the $91 million it has raised so far is exciting.	到目前为止，Complete Genomics用9100万美元募集款取得了令人振奋的成绩。


It has built a genome-sequencing factory and plans to build several more over the next few years.	它已经建成了一家基因组排序工厂，并计划在未来几年内再建成几家。


Many academic and commercial research facilities want one, as do several countries.	许多学术和商业研究机构都需要这样的工厂，有这种需求的还包括其他几个国家。


What I find interesting are the implications.	我对这背后的含义颇感兴趣。


Right now, a genome is akin to a novel written in an unknown language.	目前，基因就像是用无法读懂的语言写成的小说。


There is a huge amount of information in there, but we can’t understand it.	其中承载着海量的信息，但我们无法读懂其中的含义。


Imagine getting a copy of Tolstoi’s War and Peace in Russian and (assuming you can’t read Russian) trying to figure out the story.	想象你拿到一本俄文版托尔斯泰的 《战争与和平》 （假设你不懂俄语），并试图搞明白这个故事在讲些什么。


Impossible.	但那是不可能的。


That’s pretty much the situation of natural-language understanding at the time Reid joined Verity.	在Reid加盟Verity的时候，这差不多能够代表人们对于自然语言的理解。


On the other hand, we have started recognizing some words – specific genetic variants – that seem to correspond to certain incidents in history.	另一方面，我们已经开始理解某些词汇——也就是看似与过往某些事件相关的特定的遗传变异。


In the case of genetics, those incidents are diseases and conditions.	具体到基因领域，这些事件代表的是疾病和健康问题。


And just as it usually takes several individuals to cause an incident, so it often takes several genetic variations, plus ambient factors, to cause a disease.	正如通常需要几种因素共同作用才会造成事故一样，同样也需要若干种遗传变异，再加上周围环境因素的共同作用，才会诱发某种疾病。


Genes often work together, sometimes aided by factors such as a person’s diet or behavior, to cause a condition.	基因常常共同作用，有时在个人饮食或行为因素的辅助下，才会导致健康问题。


There are two key challenges in genomics.	人类在基因组领域面临两大挑战。


One is simply detecting the genes, alone or in combination, that seem to lead to certain diseases.	其一是单纯发现可能导致特定疾病的独立或者组合基因。


That alone can be useful.	仅这一点就会大有用处。


With enough data, we can then figure out that the same “disease” is in fact a variety of different disorders, some susceptible to particular known treatments and some susceptible to others or simply incurable.	如果掌握了足够的数据，我们就能搞清同一种“疾病”实际上是一系列机能失调之和，某些已知的治疗方法会对其中这样或那种疾病产生效果，还有些疾病可能根本无法治愈。


For this, mere correlation is sufficient.	在这方面，单纯的对比关系即可解决问题。


People with BRCA-derived breast cancer benefit from treatment with herceptin, whereas those with other kinds of breast cancer do not.	赫赛汀用于治疗由BRCA基因引发的乳腺癌患者很有效果，但却对其他类型的乳腺癌患者不起作用。


We don’t know why, but the correlation is clear.	我们不清楚这其中的原因，但却清楚这样一种关系。


The second challenge is to understand how the genes interact among themselves or with other factors to produce the condition, which should enable the development of new preventive measures or treatments based on the details of how the condition begins and how it progresses.	第二大挑战是理解基因怎样通过相互作用或与其他因素互动来引发健康问题，从而在了解疾病发生发展进程的基础上，发明新的预防和治疗措施。


That, of course, is much more interesting – and harder to do.	当然，这项挑战难度更大也更有趣。


In a sense, it’s the difference between matching words and understanding a piece of text.	从某种意义上讲，这相当于匹配词汇和理解文意之间的区别。


So, it is no surprise that Reid has found a role in this new marketplace.	因此Reid在新的市场中找到机会并不值得奇怪。


Complete Genomics and its competitors are about to create huge amounts of data.	Complete Genomics及其竞争者将会创造海量数据。


CGI’s edge is not just sequencing the genomes cheaply, but also refining the data into lists of variations.	CGI的优势不仅在于能廉价排列基因组序列，还在于能提炼数据，一一列出所有基因变异。


In other words, for most research the questions revolve not around an entire genome, but around the relevant differences of any individual’s genome from the norm.	换言之，在多数研究中问题不仅围绕着整个基因组，也是围绕着任何个人基因与标准之间的相对差异。


There are common differences, like the differences between blue eyes and brown eyes, or even between people likely to have Crohn’s disease and those who are unlikely to have it.	这种差异既有共性的方面，例如蓝色眼睛和棕色眼睛的差异，也有克罗恩氏症易感人群和非易感人群之间的差异。


Then there are differences that result simply from a “broken” gene, which is not a variant but simply a mistake.	此外还有单纯因基因“遭受破坏”而导致的差异，它不是一种变异，而仅仅是一种错误。


Most of these are harmless; the really harmful ones don’t survive long enough to show up anywhere.	其中的绝大多数都没有危害，真正有危害的变异存活时间太短，也因此不为人知。


The researchers’ task is to find meaning from all this data.	研究人员的任务是从所有数据中找到其中的意义。


We’re just at the beginning of this process, which will take many years.	这一过程不过才刚刚开始，可能要持续多年才会结束。


While some researchers are looking for statistical correlations, others are studying how the individual genes interact.	在有些研究人员寻找统计关系的同时，还有些人在研究基因之间的相互作用。


For all of them, access to genome sequences is important.	无论哪种研究人员，了解基因组序列都非常重要。


But the genomes mean little without the corresponding medical records, just as the Russian novel – in any language – means little without a corresponding knowledge of Russian history.	但没有相关的病历记录基���就没有任何意义，这就像是俄文小说——或者任何一种文字的小说——如果没有对俄国历史的相应了解，单纯分析小说并没有多少意义。


Obtaining that history requires consent from the individuals whose genomes are sequenced.	需要征得基因排序对象的许可才能得到病历记录。


It also requires a lot of data processing to make the records usable.	此外还需要大量数据处理，病历记录才能便于使用。


Much of the information is simply not recorded.	其中许多信息根本没有记录。


And much is still on paper, or in scanned images, insurance company records, and pharmacy transactions.	还有许多信息仍然以纸为载体，或者存在于扫描影像、保险公司记录和药房交易。


There is a standard language for representing diseases, but in many cases the records containing this language might as well be hidden in mattresses.	人们用标准的语言描述疾病，但在许多情况下包含这种语言的记录可以还需要挖掘。


The current movement in many developed countries towards electronic medical records will improve health care directly, but it will also lead to much improved information liquidity to help genetic and other medical research.	当前许多发达国家建立电子病案的行动将直接改进医疗卫生状况，此外还能大大提高信息流动性，从而为基因和其他医学研究提供帮助。


We now have the ability to sequence genomes at increasingly lower costs, and we are slowly making the corresponding health information computer-readable.	现在我们有能力以越来越低的成本实现基因组排序，同时我们正逐步实现相关医疗信息的电脑化存取。


Companies such as Complete Genomics are developing software that can process the information.	像Complete Genomics这样的企业正在开发软件，处理这方面的信息。


There is, of course, still a huge amount of data to collect and process, and huge amounts of research and discovery to happen.	当然，现在仍然有海量信息有待搜集和处理，同时还需要开展海量的研究和发现工作。


But it is hard not to be optimistic about our increasing medical knowledge.	但我们很难不对医学知识日新月异的发展持乐观态度。


The challenge five years from now will be to turn all that knowledge into practice through better preventive measures, better drugs, and better care.	五年内的挑战是通过更有效的预防手段、药物和更好的护理将所有已经掌握的知识应用到实际中去。


The Language of Global Protest	全球抗议的表达方式


PRINCETON – The protest movements that have flared up across the West, from Chile to Germany, have remained curiously undefined and under-analyzed.	普林斯顿——从智利到德国，西方各国燃起的抗议活动既缺乏思考又缺乏定义，这一点令人感觉十分怪异。


Some speak of them as the greatest global mobilization since 1968 – when enragés in very different countries coalesced around similar concerns.	有人说这是1968年以后规模最大的全球动员运动，不同国家民众的怒火不约而同地指向类似的问题。


But others insist that there is nothing new here.	但也有人说这里没有什么新鲜东西。


The Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev, for example, has claimed that what we are actually experiencing is 1968 “in reverse.”	比如，保加利亚政治学家伊万·克拉斯特夫指出我们实际正经历着1968年运动的“逆转”程序。


“Then students on the streets of Europe,” he says, “declared their desire to live in a world different from the world of their parents.	他说“当时欧洲街头的学生宣布他们希望生活在与父辈不同的世界。


Now students are on the streets to declare their desire to live in the world of their parents.”	而现在的学生则走上街道宣布要生活在父辈的世界里。 ”


No name and no clear interpretation have yet attached itself to the movements.	到目前为止此次运动既没有名称也没有清晰的解释。


But how they describe themselves – and how analysts describe them – will make an important difference in the direction they might take.	但他们对自己的描述和分析家对他们的描述将使运动的方向产生重要的差异。


Such self-understandings should also influence how citizens generally should respond to these movements.	上述自我认识过程也将影响一般民众对上述运动的态度。


Nineteen sixty-eight was famously over-theorized.	1968年运动浓厚的理论色彩尽人皆知。


Student leaders, or so most people remember, were constantly producing convoluted manifestos that combined Marxism, psychoanalysis, and theories about Third World liberation struggles.	至少在多数人的记忆当中，学生领袖不断创造出融马克思主义、精神分析学和第三世界解放斗争理论为一体的令人费解的宣言理论。


What is easily forgotten is that even the most theory-eager leaders of the time understood that ultimately, the protest movements that helped to define 1968 didn’t come out of seminar-room discussions.	人们容易忘记的是即使是当时最热衷于理论的领导人也清楚归根结底，定义1968年革命的抗议运动绝不是会议室讨论的结果。


The German leader Rudi Dutschke, for example, insisted that the movement was driven by “existential disgust” – and anger, provoked by the Vietnam War in particular.	比如德国领袖鲁迪·多茨克坚持认为由越南战争引起的“存在主义厌恶”和愤怒是那次运动的源动力。


Many putative “theorists” themselves declared that the enragés should let go of revolutionary textbooks and, instead, “practically problematize” inherited radical strategies.	很多公认的“理论家”自主宣布应当放弃革命教条主义，从实际出发对继承而来的激进策略提出问题。


Put more simply: they were supposed to make it up as they went along.	简单地说，他们应当在前进的同时弥补造成的损失。


In that sense, 1968 and today’s protests are not as different as some observers claim.	从这个意义上讲，1968年及今天的抗议活动并不像某些观察家所说有那么大的差异。


There is no political playbook, but there are events and also books that inspired outrage: Frantz Fanon’s Wretched of the Earth in the 1960’s and, nowadays, the unlikely bestseller Indignez-Vous!, by the 93-year old former French Resistance fighter Stéphane Hessel.	虽然没有政治策划，但也有激起愤怒的事件和书籍：20世纪60年代是佛朗茨·法农的《猥琐的地球》，而今天则是93岁的前法国抵抗战士斯特凡·埃赛勒令人难以置信的畅销书《愤怒吧！ 》。


As critics have mockingly pointed out, Hessel’s booklet at times reads more like a call for a free-floating, almost arbitrary desire to be agitated by something – almost anything, really, as long as it can somehow be justified by one’s own subjective sense of justice.	批评家们略带讽刺意味的指出，埃赛勒的小册子有时读上去就像在号召人们对某些问题——实际上几乎是任何问题随意、甚至是武断的大动肝火，只要他们自己的主观正义感能以某种方式对此做出合理的解释。


It did not help that Hessel nostalgically invoked Jean-Paul Sartre and existentialism, and the “great stream of history” – longings reflected on a hand-painted sign at Occupy Wall Street: “Get excited and do something.”	埃赛勒充满怀旧情结地援引让－保罗·萨特及其存在主义的理论也于事无补，占领华尔街运动中“紧张起来、做些什么”的手绘标语表露出人们对“历史洪流”的强烈渴望。


Tellingly, that sign was flanked by posters for the left-wing anarchist philosopher Noam Chomsky and the right-wing libertarian politician Ron Paul.	颇能说明问题的是，在这幅标语下同时汇集了左翼无政府主义哲学家诺姆·乔姆斯基和右翼自由主义政治家罗恩·保罗的支持者。


Still, for all the theoretical weaknesses of Hessel’s treatise, “indignation” has become a watchword for movements in France, Spain, and elsewhere.	尽管埃赛勒的专著在理论上有很多缺陷，但“愤怒”已经成为法国、西班牙和其他国家运动的口号。


And language matters here: indignation suggests that some social actors – a government or elites in general – have violated shared norms or moral understandings.	此处的表达方式应当引起人们的关注：愤怒表明某些社会行动派（一般是政府或精英人士）已经违反了公认的规范或道德准则。


This is the literally “reactionary” interpretation of these movements: they are animated by a sense that the social contract has been broken, and that elites ought to return to the status quo that preceded the policies which ultimately led to the financial crisis.	这实际是对上述运动的“反动”解释：它们来源于社会契约被打破时的愤怒感，精英人士理当恢复政策实行前的原状，而正是这种“原状”才最终导致了金融危机。


If so, the people on the squares of Madrid, Athens, and New York are not so much demonstrating against those in power – give or take a few anarchists – as demonstrating to those in power that they should feel ashamed for having reneged on supposedly shared commitments.	如果真是这样，那么除少数无政府主义者，雅典、马德里和纽约民众的抗议对象与其说是那些当权者，还不如说是当权者中理应为背弃共同承诺而感到羞耻的一小撮。


Indignation is different from outrage – a sentiment that is ultimately blind and not necessarily connected to any presumption that one shares commitments with the people against whom it is directed.	义愤不同于震怒——后者具有终极的盲目性，而且不一定建立在自己与对方遵守共同承诺的基础之上。


This is to some degree also the story of 1968: righteous disgust led to outrage, but, when channeled through completely unrealistic revolutionary theorizing, also to self-righteousness and, ultimately, to elaborate justifications for physical violence on the part of radical factions.	某种程度上1968年运动也是如此：正当的厌恶演变为愤怒，但如果通过完全不切实际的革命理论来发泄这种愤怒，它也可能演变为自以为是，并最终导致激进派别精心炮制将暴力的合法化理由。


In such a scenario, self-empowered minorities come to speak in the name of imaginary majorities – a populism of sorts, and, like all populism, driven by emotions more than by norms, let alone reasons.	在这种情况下，自我授权的少数群体以假象中多数群体的名义高谈阔论——这算得上是一种民粹主义，而且和所有的民粹主义一样，它的驱动因素是情感而非规则，当然更谈不上理性。


Or it simply all ends in riots.	这只会导致暴乱的发生。


The distinction between indignation and outrage might seem like nitpicking.	义愤和震怒间的差别可能更像是挑剔细节。


But the lessons that elites learn – and they clearly will want to turn the protests to their electoral advantage – will partly depend on how these movements are described, and how they conceive of themselves.	但精英们将吸取何种教训将部分取决于运动的描述及其参与者自我看待的方式。 精英���显然希望将抗议活动转化为选举优势。


On that point, the demonstrators have so far remained curiously mute: they have yet to articulate any wider demands or a sense of what a different society, or “real democracy” – a stock phrase of the Spanish movement – should be all about.	从这个角度看，抗议者到目前仍令人惊讶地保持着沉默：他们既没有提出任何宏观要求也没有说清不同的社会、或者“真正的民主”（西班牙抗议运动的标志性词汇）是个什么样子。


If today’s protest movements are based on righteous indignation, the lack of concrete demands should not be a problem: shared norms (and the policies that would follow from them) can still broadly be assumed.	如果今天的抗议活动来源于正当的义愤，那么就无需担心具体要求的缺失：人们仍然可以运用公认的准则（及由此所产生的政策）。


But if they are being driven by rage, then a lack of clear goals might merely produce more anger and frustration, which in turn could eventually lead to physical violence and some kind of political nihilism.	但如果背后的驱动因素是震怒，那么缺乏明确的目标只可能带来更多的愤怒和沮丧，而更多的愤怒和沮丧最终可能导致身体暴力和某种形式的政治虚无。


This also means that political elites should try to understand and work with the message of indignation – and not cynically play up anger for electoral advantage.	这同样意味着政治精英们应当力求理解并接受这种义愤所发出的信号——而不是玩世不恭地利用这种义愤来谋取选举优势。


It is not just ridiculous, but downright irresponsible, for example, that the British Labour Party intellectual Maurice Glasman now feels compelled to reveal the so-far hidden “angry insurgent side” of party leader Ed Miliband.	比方说，英国工党知识份子莫里斯·格拉斯曼现在感觉有必要披露之前一直不为人所知的工党领袖埃德·米利班德的“愤怒反叛个性”不但滑稽可笑，而且彻头彻尾的不负责。


Elites – and protesters’ fellow citizens – should respond conscientiously and creatively to moral indignation, comprehending that it is ultimately about an affirmation of liberal democracy, and not about all-out revolution, let alone nihilism.	精英——和抗议者的同胞们——应当认真而富于创造性地对道德义愤做出响应，记住它最终既非全面革命，更不是怀疑论，而是自由民主的证明。


And they should seek to calm anger and defuse outrage, which can be a serious threat to liberal democracy.	同时他们需要平复愤怒，平息怒火，因为这些会为自由民主国家带来严重的威胁。


The Last Extinction	最后的灭绝


BONN – Farmers across Africa are currently engaged in an unequal struggle against a pestilent fruit fly whose natural home is in Asia.	波恩amp#45;amp#45;全非洲的农民目前正在与一种来自亚洲的致命果蝇进行一场不平等的斗争。


The fly, first detected in 2004 in Mombasa on the Kenyan coast, has since swept across the continent, decimating mangoes and other crops and devastating livelihoods.	这一果蝇最早于2004年在肯尼亚沿海的蒙巴萨被发现。 从那时以来，它已经横扫非洲大陆，灭绝了芒果和其他作物，并且破坏了人们的生计。


In a bid to counter the fly, a team from the world-renowned ICIPE institute in East Africa recently went to Sri Lanka looking for a natural predator.	为了对付这一果蝇，全球著名的东非ICIPE研究所最近前往斯里兰卡寻找天敌。 研究人员现在已经确定了一种天敌。


Researchers have now pinpointed one, which, after careful screening, has been deemed safe to release into Africa’s environment and appears likely to defeat the unwelcome invader.	经过认真的筛选，研究人员认为将它释放到非洲的环境之中是安全的，而且有可能制服这一不受欢迎的入侵者。


But the pioneering work is now on hold, as are the hopes of millions of farmers for an effective, environmentally friendly answer to the crisis.	但是这一先导性工作现在处于停滞状态，而数以百万计的农民取得有效而对环境无害危机解决途径的希望也停滞了。


Countries in Asia – indeed, countries throughout the developing world – are simply not exporting their abundant and economically important genetic resources.	亚洲国家、而且实际上是整个发展中国家根本就不允许出口其丰富而且在经济上重要的基因资源。


The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), signed in 1992, promised an international regime on Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS) of genetic resources.	于1992年签署的生物多样性公约保证建立一个基因资源获取和受益分享的国际机制。


This would allow researchers and companies access to the developing world’s genetic treasure trove in return for a share of the profits from the products that are then developed.	这将会让研究人员和各公司获得发展中国家的基因宝藏。 作为回报，这些国家可以分享因此开发的产品利润。


But brokering the ABS regime has proven elusive, and, in the absence of an international deal, there has been diminishing access and thus declining benefit-sharing over the past five or so years.	但是却难以斡旋建立这一获取和受益分享机制。 而且在没有国际协议的情况下，在过去五年中，获取和受益分享越发减少。


This implies potentially huge economic, environmental, and social losses to both the developed and developing world.	这就意味着发达国家和发展中国家都会遭受巨大的经济、环境以及社会损失。


These losses include missed opportunities for breakthroughs in pharmaceuticals, foods, biologically-based materials and processes, and biological pest controllers like the promising one isolated by ICIPE.	这些损失包括没有抓住机遇，在制药、食物、基于生物的材料和流程以及类似由ICIPE分离出来的具有前途的生物害虫天敌等方面实现突破。


The losses also include failure to conserve the world’s dwindling wildlife and rapidly degrading ecosystems, which are worth trillions of dollars in terms of life-supporting services.	损失还包括没有保护世界日益减少的野生物种以及快速衰退的生态系统。 在维持生命服务的意义上，这些都价值数以万亿计美元。


An intelligently designed ABS regime offers the chance for poorer countries, which possess the lion’s share of the globe’s remaining genetic resources, to begin to be paid properly for maintaining them.	设计合理的获取和受益分享机制为贫穷国家提供了机会。 这些国家拥有全球剩余基因资源的一大部分，可以开始为维持这些资源而接收报偿。


It could also play an important part in meeting the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals, which include halving poverty by 2015.	这也将会为实现联合国千年发展目标而发挥重要作用，而这一目标包括到2015年将贫困减少一半。


From May 20-30, governments from more than 190 countries and an estimated 6,000 delegates will meet in Bonn, Germany for the Ninth Meeting of the Parties to the CBD.	5月20日到30日，190多个国家政府以及大约6000名代表将聚会德国波恩，参加生物多样性公约的第九次缔约方会议。


Governments have set their sights on securing an ABS regime by 2010, which is also the deadline, agreed at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, to reduce substantially the rate of loss of biodiversity.	各国政府已经确定目标，到2010年最后期限时建立获取和受益分享机制。 2002年世界可持续发展高峰会议确定了这一最后期限来大幅度降低生物多样性的损失速度。


But accelerated action on many other broad biodiversity-related fronts is urgently needed.	但是现在还急需在其他许多广泛的生物多样性有关的领域加快行动。


Indeed, according to the UN Environment Program’s Global Environment Outlook-4 , the world is currently experiencing a sixth wave of extinctions, triggered in large part by our failure to manage natural assets.	实际上，根据联合国环境项目发表的第四期全球环境展望的数据，世界目前正在经历第六次物种灭绝浪潮，而这一浪潮大部分是由于我们未能管理自然资产而引发的。


Thirty percent of global fish stocks have collapsed, up from roughly 15% in 1987, and the proportion of fish stocks classified as over-exploited has doubled, to around 40%.	全球渔业储量的30%已经消亡，而1987年大约是15%。 而且，被划归为过度捕捞的渔业储量的比例达到40%左右。


Populations of freshwater vertebrates have declined on average by nearly 50% since 1987, while populations of terrestrial and marine species have fallen by around 30%.	从1987年以来，淡水脊椎动物的数量平均减少50%，而陆地和海上物种的数量已经下降大约30%。


In the Caribbean, more than 60% of coral reefs are threatened by sediment, pollution, and over-fishing.	在加勒比海地区，超过60%的珊瑚礁受到泥沙、污染以及过度捕鱼的威胁。


Since the end of the Second World War, more land has been converted to agricultural use than in the previous two centuries.	从第二次世界大战结束以来，土地被转换到农业使用的数量超过以往的两个世纪。


Every year, 13 million hectares of tropical forests, which contain up to 80% of the planet’s biodiversity, are destroyed.	每一分钟，一千三百万公顷的热带森林遭到破坏，而这些森林包含了地球生物多样性的80%。


Roughly 35% of mangroves have been destroyed in the last 20 years.	在过去20年中，大约35%的红树林遭到破坏。


But, alongside these sobering facts, the world is also full of shining and intelligent management.	但是，除了这些沮丧的事实，这一世界还充满了聪慧和富有朝气的管理活动。


Indeed, protected areas now cover over 12% of the Earth’s surface, although the creation of marine reserves remains woefully low.	实际上，尽管海洋保护地建立的还很少，但是目前受保护领域占地球表面的12%以上。


For example, Paraguay, which until 2004 had one of the world’s highest rates of deforestation, has reduced rates in its eastern region by 85%.	例如，巴拉圭直到2004年还是世界上砍伐森林最高的国家，现在其东部地区的砍伐率已经下降85%。


And in Fiji, no-take zones and better management of marine areas has increased species like mangrove lobsters by 250% per year.	由于斐济的禁止捕捞区域以及海上领域的良好管理，该国每年增加红树林以及龙虾等物种达到250%。


Iraq’s marshlands have been restored, and local wheat varieties in Jordan and Syria have been preserved.	伊拉克的沼泽地已经得以恢复，约旦和叙利亚的当地小麦变种也得到了保护。


Nevertheless, despite these signs of progress, we are failing to confront the magnitude of the challenge, particularly in the translation of global agreements into legislation and action at the national and regional levels.	但是，尽管有了这些进步迹象，我们还是没有解决巨大的挑战，特别是把全球性协议转化到立法以及全国性和地区性的行动上���。


In Bali six months ago, the world achieved a breakthrough on climate change, and both developed and developing countries have embarked on a Road Map towards a new climate regime for 2012.	六个月前在巴厘，世界各国在气候变化上取得了突破。 发展中国家和发达国家一道开始朝向2012年新的气候制度的路线图工作。


We must become equally committed to reversing the rate of biodiversity loss.	我们必须同样致力于扭转生物多样性损失的速度。


The Bonn Biodiversity Conference represents an ideal opportunity to achieve a breakthrough, including on ABS.	波恩生物多样性会议提供了一个绝佳的机遇来实现突破，包括获取和受益分享机制。


All of us, not just Africa’s fruit farmers, ultimately depend on nature’s bounty for our prosperity – indeed, for our very survival.	不仅仅是非洲的果农，我们所有人最终都依赖于大自然的宝藏来实现繁荣以及我们自身的存活。


The Last Interventionist	最后一个干预主义者


When Tony Blair, having procrastinated about his departure almost to the point of unreason, finally gives up the British premiership this month, it will be to the general relief not only of the British public as a whole, but also of the overwhelming majority of his own party.	在将其离职一拖再拖，拖到几乎失去理性的地步时，托尼布莱尔终于要在这个月放弃英国首相一职了，这不仅让整个英国民众，也让他自己党内的压倒性多数派长舒了一口气。


After three terms in office, it could hardly be otherwise.	在三届任期之后，几乎没有别的路可走了。


Despite the cliché, power does corrupt, and the late Blair era, like that of Margaret Thatcher before it, has been a squalid spectacle.	尽管是陈词滥调，但是权力确实会腐败，已逝的布莱尔时代，和在其之前的玛格利特撒切尔时代一样，已现道德败落之景。


The paradox is that, for a man who wielded so much power for so long, it is unclear what domestic legacy, if any, Blair will leave.	似是而非的是，在掌控如此重要的权力如此之久以后，谁也说不清布莱尔会对英国国内留下什么影响，如果有影响的话。


Blairism was a mood, a style, but, in substantive terms, it represented no radical break with the Thatcherite legacy that New Labour repackaged so cleverly, and, in fairness, administered more humanely than the Iron Lady ever did.	布莱尔主义是一种基调，一种风格，但是本质上，它和撒切尔主义如出一辙，尽管经过了新工党的精心包装，而且公平的说，比铁娘子的执政更人道一些。


Foreign policy is another story.	外交政策却是另一回事。


Whatever one thinks of him, in international affairs Blair was a leader of consequence.	不管人们对布莱尔怎么看，在国际事务中，他是一个举足轻重的领导人。


Indeed, he can be plausibly described as being chiefly responsible for formulating and successfully propagating the doctrine of “humanitarian intervention.”	事实上，似乎可以说他对 “人道干预”主义的系统阐述和成功宣传起了主要作用。


That idea captured the imagination of much of the elite of the developed world over the course of the 1990’s, and provided the moral rationale for the principal Western military interventions of the post-Cold War period, from Bosnia to Iraq.	这一理念在上世纪九十年代引起了发达国家许多精英们的极大兴趣，并为冷战后西方的主要军事干预¾从波黑到伊拉克，提供了道德依据。


Given how catastrophic the invasion of Iraq has turned out to be, it is hard even to remember when interventions on moral grounds – whether to thwart a dictator, as in the case of the Balkan wars, or to put an end to anarchic cruelty, as in the case of British intervention in Sierra Leone – seemed like a great advance in international affairs.	看看现在入侵伊拉克造成的灾难性后果，甚至很难想起当初这些基于道义理由的干预¾或是为了挫败独裁者，例如巴尔干战争那样； 或是为了结束无政府状态下的暴行，例如英国对塞拉利昂的干预¾曾被看成是国际事务中的伟大进步。


No longer would the powerful sit by idly while butchers like Slobodan Milosevic or Foday Sankoh slaughtered their own people.	强国决不能再坐视无睹，任由斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇和弗迪·桑科这样的屠夫屠杀他们自己的人民了。


Today, humanitarian intervention has become a dirty word for many of the same people who once believed in it.	如今，人道主义干预对许多当初曾坚信他的人来说，都已经成了一个肮脏的词汇。


Only American neo-conservatives, understandably grateful for his championing of the Iraq war and his ability to argue for it coherently and eloquently (unlike President Bush, who was and is unable to do either), are sorry to see Blair go.	只有美国的新保守主义者们，感激布莱尔拥护伊拉克战争，并能条理清楚，言辞流利的为人道主义干预辩护，（这与布什总统不同，布什过去直至现在都还做不到其一）对布莱尔的离去感到难过，他们的行为不难理解。


But what may be lost is how many people did believe.	但是无法弄清楚的是有多少人曾确实相信过它。


Blair still does.	布莱尔仍对它深信不疑。


In a recent interview, he replied to the question of the core of his foreign policy with two words: “liberal interventionism.”	在最近一次访谈中，当被问到哪两个词是他外交政策的核心时，他回答说：“自由干预主义”。


The world may have moved on, chastened by the realization that interveners, even when intervening in the name of human rights, can be as barbaric as tin pot dictators. But Blair, it seems, is not to be moved.	在认识到即使是在人权名义下进行干预，干预者也可能像低劣的独裁者一样野蛮之后，整个世界经过这一锤炼已经向前迈进了，但是布莱尔好像止步不前了。


What was famously said of Thatcher – “the lady’s not for turning” – can be said of him as well.	以前有一句针对撒切尔的名言¾ “本夫人是不会转弯的” ¾现在也可以用到他身上。


In fairness to Blair, this is not mere stubbornness, as it seems to the case with Bush and his current and erstwhile minions, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, and, of course, Vice President Dick Cheney.	公平地说，布莱尔不像布什及其现任的和以前的幕僚唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德，保罗·沃尔佛维兹，当然，还有副总统迪克·切尼那样纯粹的顽固不化。


For Blair, there is a moral unity between the interventions in Kosovo and Iraq, both of which he presents as examples of a post-Westphalian idea that powerful states are called upon to defend suffering communities globally, including by military means.	对布莱尔来说，科索沃和伊拉克干预有道德上的一致性，他把两者都列为后威斯特法思想的典例，即应该号召强国在全球范围内捍卫受难地区，包括以军事方式。


To the charge that this idea is actually old-fashioned liberal imperialism updated for the post-Cold War world, Blair has consistently replied that what he called for in Kosovo, Sierra Leone, and Iraq are wars of “values, not interests.”	有人指责这一观点实际上是过时了的自由帝国主义针对冷战后的世界衍生出的新版，布莱尔对此的一贯回应是：他在科索沃，塞拉利昂和伊拉克倡导的是“价值观而非利益”之战。


In his more petulant moments, he has asked why so many of those who saw no harm in NATO undermining Milosevic adamantly opposed the ouster of Saddam Hussein.	脾气不好时，他曾问道为什么有这么多人没有对北约削弱米洛舍维奇感到不妥，但是却如此坚持不懈地反对将萨达姆·侯赛因赶下台。


Actually, the answer is quite simple.	答案其实很简单。


Blair’s vision of wars of values rather than interests has increasingly come to seem like a moral flag of convenience – in a way similar to the use of human rights by the rich world’s governments to justify their continued domination of institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.	布莱尔的价值观而非利益之战已经越来越像是打着道义的名义图己之便利¾在某种意义上和富国政府利用人权给他们长期控制世界银行和国际货币基金组织这样的机构找合理性是一个道理。


The fact that NATO now considers its area of operations to legitimately extend all the way to the Hindu Kush has given pause even to many who once believed as fervently in humanitarian intervention as Blair still does.	北约认为自己的势力范围理所当然地一路延伸到兴都库什山已经使许多曾经像布莱尔现在这样狂热地相信人道主义干预的人踌躇止步了。


Of course, Blair does not think of himself as a new imperialist.	当然，布莱尔不把自己看成是新帝国主义者。


On the contrary, as he has frequently made clear, he considers his critics immoral for not supporting liberal interventions.	相反，正如他经常说到的那样，他认为他的批评者不支持自由主义干预是不道德的。


But nor did nineteenth-century colonialists think of themselves as immoral.	但是，19世纪的殖民主义者也不认为他们自己不道德。


Indeed, perhaps the greatest of British imperial conquerors in Africa, Cecil Rhodes, once defined imperialism as “philanthropy plus 5%.”	事实上，英帝国在非洲最大的殖民者赛西尔·罗兹，曾经把帝国主义说成是“慈善事业+5%”。 听好了！


Take that, Dick Cheney and Halliburton.	迪克切尼和其东家哈里伯顿公司。