With productivity growth stagnating for almost two decades, it made sense back then to argue that the US government’s social-insurance commitments (Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) were excessive and so had to be scaled back.	由于生产力增长停滞将近二十年，人们又开始议论美国政府的社会保险支出（社会保障体系、医疗保险、医疗补助制度）过于庞大，应该被缩减。


That was then, this is now.	那是过去的事情了，下面要说的是现在。


The intervening years have seen an explosion of technological innovation that has carried America’s general productivity growth back up to its pre-slowdown levels.	在这十五年期间，我们见证了技术革新大爆炸把美国总的生产力增长速度推回到减速前的水平。


Indeed, today the US economy is standing on the brink of biotechnological and, perhaps, nanotechnological revolutions of vast scale and scope.	的确，今天美国经济正处在生物科技的边缘，或者说是大规模、大范围的纳米科技的边缘。


Yet the same calls to scale back America’s social commitments are heard.	但缩减社会性支出的呼声依旧持续。


Social Security’s actuaries may not have fully recognized the impact of today’s technological revolutions, but they have markedly boosted the scale of the system that the US government can afford.	社会保障体系的精算师们可能并没有完全认识到如今技术革命带来的冲击力，而是显而易见地继续推进了这一政府能够负担得起的体制的规模。


Fifteen years ago, the consensus was that America's Social Security System was in huge trouble, that it needed the equivalent of an engine rebuild.	十五年前，大多数人认为：美国的社会保障体制存在严重问题，解决它相当于重建一台机车。


Today its problems look, as the Brookings Institution economist Peter Orszag says, much more like the equivalent of a slow tire leak: you have to fix it eventually, but it isn’t very hard to do and repair it isn’t terribly urgent.	而现在解决这个问题看起来，就像布鲁金学院经济学家彼得·奥斯杰葛说的那样，更像修理一个漏气的轮胎：最终你必须要修好它，但这并不难而且不那么棘手。


So why is the Bush administration spending time and energy proposing radical changes to the Social Security System as its signature domestic policy initiative – indeed, as virtually its only policy initiative?	那么布什政府为什么要花时间和精力把社会保障体制的根本转变作为首要的、而且实际上就是唯一的国内政策举措呢？


Everyone who worries about America’s weak fiscal position puts Social Security’s relatively small funding imbalance far down the list of priorities.	每一个为美国虚弱的财政状况担忧的人都把社会保障相对较小的资金调配失衡放在最后考虑。


The highest priority problem is the overall budget’s medium-run outlook, as the Bush tax cuts have opened Reagan-size deficits that threaten to cripple US economic growth.	鉴于布什政府的减税政策已经使赤字和里根政府时期的赤字持平，从而威胁到美国经济增长，应该予以首要考虑的是由媒体导向的全面的预算前景。


The second highest priority problem is figuring out what to do in the long term with Medicare and Medicaid.	其次就是制定出医疗保险和医疗补助制度的长期计划。


America must decide the size of its public health programs and how to finance them.	美国必须确定公共卫生项目的规模以及相关的资金供给。


In reality, this is more of an opportunity than a problem: if we did not expect that doctors and nurses will be able to do marvelous things in a generation or two that they cannot do now, we would not be projecting serious fiscal deficits arising from the health programs.	实际上，这更是一个时机问题，而不是个难题：如果人们认为医生护士们现在，而且在一两代人的时间内还创造不出非凡的业绩，那么卫生项目领域内就不会出现严重的财政赤字。


The third most serious problem is to put the US government’s General Fund budget on a sustainable basis, so that the non-Social Security government can finance itself and meet its commitments after the date – around 2020 – when it can no longer borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund.	第三个最严重的问题就是要把美国政府的普通资金预算置于稳定雄厚的基础上，那么不属于社会保障体制范围内的政府部门在大约2020年不能再向社会保障信用基金借钱的规定时间到来以后能够做到自给自足。


The bottom line is that Social Security’s long-term funding difficulty, while real, is projected to be much smaller and much further in the future than any of the nearer, larger, and more significant fiscal problems currently facing the US government. If Social Security is a slow tire leak, then the post-2020 General Fund is an urgent brake job, Medicare and Medicaid are a melted transmission, and the budget deficit is the equivalent of having just crashed into a tree.	财政账目的底线是：社会保障长期的资金困难在计划上要大大小于、远于美国政府正面临的近期的、相对较大的和重要的财政难题。


What kind of driver, owning a car that has just crashed into a tree, has a burned-out transmission, and needs a brake job, says, “The most important thing is to fix this slow leak in the right rear tire?”	什么样的司机在自己的汽车撞到树上，变速器被烧毁却需要及时刹车时会说：“现在最重要的是把漏气的右后轮胎修一下”？


George W. Bush is that type of driver.	乔治·W·布什就是这样的司机。


There are three theories as to why the Bush administration is focusing on Social Security.	至于布什政府为什么把精力用在社会保障体制改革上，有三种说法。


The first is simple incompetence: Bush and his inner circle simply do not understand the magnitude and importance of the federal government’s other fiscal problems.	第一种显然没有说服力：布什和他的人没有意识到联邦政府其它财政问题的重要性和意义。


The second is ideology. For some reason Bush and his people think it is important to undermine the successes of the New Deal institutions established under Franklin Roosevelt.	第二种说法涉及思想观念：出于某种原因，布什和他的人认为重要的是要破坏富兰克林·罗斯福“新政”体系取得的成就。


The third reason is bureaucratic capture: just as the principal aim of Bush’s Medicare Drug Benefit bill of 2003 was to boost pharmaceutical company profits, so the Bush administration’s Social Security proposal will most likely be tailored to the interests of Wall Street.	第三个原因涉及官僚利益：正像2003年布什政府“医疗药品福利法案”的主要目的在于增加医药公司的利润一样，关于社会保障体制的改革意见是为保证华尔街的利益而提出的。


I don’t see any other, more pressing, reforms – such as raising income taxes to pay for national security – gaining any traction in the Bush regime.	我看不出任何步伐比这更紧迫的改革――比如提高收入税来支付国防开支――在布什政府的政策制度中获得如此重视了。


If I had to bet on a cause, I would put my money on sheer incompetence. After all, that seems to be the common denominator of every policy controlled by his White House.	如果要我在其中一种可能的原因上下注的话，我肯定会输个精光的――毕竟那是白宫掌控下的每一项政策的共同特点。


Bush’s Dying Days in Gaza	布什政府将要结束时的加沙地带


PARIS – During a visit to the Middle East, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned that enemies of the United States should not use the power vacuum there to try to alter the status quo or to undermine the new American president’s objectives.	巴黎-在访问中东的过程中，国防部长罗伯特·盖茨曾警告说，美国的敌人不应利用美国出现的权力真空来试图改变现状或是破坏美国新任总统的目标。


But the major challenge in this respect is now coming, ironically enough, from America’s main ally in the region, Israel.	但是，这方面的巨大挑战真的来了，并极具讽刺意味的是，它来自于美国在该地区的主要盟友-以色列。


Hardliners in Israel naturally regret the end of the Bush administration, for they know that, even if President Barack Obama does not dramatically change US policy toward Israel once he assumes power, he will not repeat Bush’s unconditional support.	自然，让以色列强硬派感到遗憾的是，布什政府快走到尽头了，因为他们知道，即使奥巴马总统不大刀阔斧地改变美国对以色列的政策，一旦他上了台，他也不会重复布什政府对以色列无条件地支持的政策。


Israeli hardliners saw the “war on terror” and the war in Iraq as their wars, supported Bush’s war-like rhetoric and isolation of Iran, and considered the neo-conservatives their ideological kin. In particular, they shared the neo-cons’ conviction that military intervention is a legitimate and effective way of achieving political change.	以色列的强硬派曾把“反恐战争”和伊拉克战争当作他们自己的战争，他们曾支持布什对伊朗近乎宣战的言论和孤立伊朗的立场，并把新保守主义者视为自己的思想同类，尤其是他们和新保守派具有同样的信念，即军事干预是一种合法且有效的实现政治变革的方式。


This is what the Israeli government tried to achieve in Lebanon by “smashing Hezbollah” in 2006.	这就是以色列政府在2006年通过“粉碎真主党”行动试图在黎巴嫩实现的目标。


Now it is trying to do the same in Gaza.	现在它正试图在加沙地带如法炮制。


In response to Hamas rockets, Israel is now using disproportionate force, just as it did in Lebanon.	针对哈马斯的火箭弹，以色列人目前正在用过度的武力报以回应，与它们过去在黎巴嫩的行动一模一样。


The result will probably be the same: at the end of the campaign, Hamas will have increased its popularity in Palestine and in the Arab world.	其结果可能会与过去相同：战争结束时，哈马斯在巴勒斯坦和阿拉伯世界的威望将大增。


Indeed, the current military operation follows Israel’s two-year blockade of Gaza, which was supposed to have damaged Hamas, but failed to do so.	事实上，在对加沙地带进行了两年的封锁后，目前以色列的紧接着便采取了军事行动，而过去的封锁是为了摧毁哈马斯，但却没有取得成功。


It is likely that Obama will consider a Palestinian state to be in America’s fundamental interest.	可能奥巴马会认为建立巴勒斯坦国是符合美国的根本利益的。


He will see it as a precondition for altering perceptions of the US in the Arab and Muslim worlds, since restoring America’s credibility will be a major objective of the incoming administration.	他会认为这是一个改变美国在阿拉伯和穆斯林世界中形象的先决条件，因为恢复美国的信誉将是下届政府的一个主要目标。


Israeli hardliners cannot be sure that, at the end of the day, Obama will not find it necessary to change policies toward Israel in order to achieve this objective, for he considers it to be a strategic concern.	让以色列强硬派不能确定的是，奥巴马最后是否会从战略性考虑出发，认为有必要改变对以色列的政策，借以实现这一目标。


They also know, of course, that any serious engagement with the Palestinian question must imply engaging Hamas in the search for a two-state solution.	他们当然还明白，在寻求达成一个两国解方案的过程中，只要认真地牵涉到巴勒斯坦问题，就肯定意味着会牵涉到哈马斯。


The Israeli government is, in short, using the Bush administration’s dying days to implement its military-first policy.	简而言之，以色列政府正利用布什政府的最后日子来实现其军事第一的政策。


At the same time, it is trying to create a situation that will, in effect, make it more difficult for the new president to achieve his policies in the region.	与此同时，它试图造成一种局面，即事实上让新总统更难在该地区使其政策获得成功。


News reports show that revulsion is spreading through the Arab world, where American and Israeli flags are burned side-by-side.	新闻报道显示，仇恨正在阿拉伯世界蔓延，美国和以色列的国旗被并排烧毁。


This war, therefore, will simply make it more difficult to engage with those countries at the very moment such talks are absolutely necessary.	因此，就在这种对话有绝对必要的关键时刻，这场战争只会让同这些国家打交道变得更困难。


One reason for international suspicion of Hamas has been the support that it receives from Iran.	国际上对哈马斯不信任的一个原因是，它一直获得伊朗的支持。


Obama has vowed to change American policy toward Iran, opening diplomatic channels rather than merely issuing military threats.	奥巴马誓言要改变美国对伊朗的政策，要打开外交渠道而不仅仅是发出军事威胁。


Such a change would make it easier to end the isolation of Hamas as well.	这种改变也能更容易地结束对哈马斯的孤立。


America’s renewed engagement with Iran is clearly a policy that will have a far-reaching impact in the Middle East.	美国与伊朗的重新接触显然是一项将对中东产生深远影响的政策。


Although that strategic change in US policy is also in Israel’s best interests, most Israelis will not see it that way.	虽然这一美国政策的战略转变也是最符合以色列利益的，但大多数以色列人并不会这么认为。


An American dialogue with Iran will be a serious blow to the interests of Israeli hardliners, and some of them dream of making it impossible.	美国与伊朗对话将是对以色列强硬派利益的一个沉重打击，他们中的一些人做梦都想让它成为泡影。


Constraining American policy may, therefore, be one of the motivations behind Israel’s incursion into Gaza.	因此，制约美国政策可能是以色列入侵加沙的动机之一。


Yet it is a grave challenge to international peace and could spread instability throughout the region.	然而，它是一次对国际和平的严重挑战，并可能在整个地区造成不稳定。


Were that to occur, Obama’s planned rapprochement with Iran would be strangled in the cradle.	如果出现这样的情况，奥巴马与伊朗和解的计划将被扼杀在摇篮里。


In the days before Obama takes office, while a power vacuum persists in the US, the European Union has a unique role to play in international initiatives to end the violence and the unfolding humanitarian crisis.	在奥巴马上任前的数日里，当美国继续着权力真空的时候，欧盟可以发挥其在国际行动中的独特作用以结束暴力和不断扩大的人道主义危机。


For the EU to succeed, it must pursue the policy launched by the French Presidency, giving priority to stopping the war and distancing itself from Israel’s disproportionate use of force.	欧盟若要取得成功，就必须追求由法国总统推出的政策，把停止战争作为头等大事并和以色列的对武力的过度使用保持距离。


Negotiating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be the first step toward a permanent end to hostilities and to the blockade of Gaza.	要永久停止敌对行动和解除对加沙地带的封锁，以色列和哈马斯之间停火的谈判可以作为达到此目标的第一步。


It could, in effect, pave the way for the new Obama administration to convene an international conference to implement the two-state solution for Palestine, which should follow the ceasefire.	这实际上可以为奥巴马政府召开国际会议以实现巴勒斯坦两国制解决方案铺平道路，这应在停火之后举行。


Such initiatives should not become bogged down in tortuous negotiations, but should focus on implementing the basic principles for a two-state solution, along the lines proposed by the Clinton administration before it left office eight years ago.	这些倡议不应在曲折的谈判中陷入困境，而是把重点放在实现巴勒斯坦两国制的解决方案的基本原则上，并按照8年前克林顿政府任期内提出的方针进行。


Hamas has already engaged in ceasefire negotiations and should now be brought fully into the peace process, alongside Fatah, but it will, of course, have to abandon its own strategy of force, as expressed through the rockets it has rained down on Israel.	哈马斯已经开始进行停火谈判，我们应该让他同法塔赫一道充分参与和平进程。 当然，它必须放弃自己的用武力解决问题的战略，这种战略已经通过它向以色列扔下火箭弹昭示于众了。


It is a policy that has proved to be ineffective, and that is illegal under international law because it targets Israeli civilians.	这是一个已被证明无效的政策，并且是违反国际法的，因为它的目标是以色列平民。


Israel, for its part, needs to recognize that, if it wants to act in ways that are consistent with its own democratic values, it must abandon its strategy of violence and disrespect for the basic human rights of the Palestinians, as well as the idea of “Great Israel.”	就以色列而言，它需要认识到，如果它想拿出符合自己的民主价值观的行动，就必须放弃其暴力的战略和对巴勒斯坦人的基本人权的不尊重以及“大以色列” 的观点。


In short, it must accept a Palestinian state, through deeds as well as words.	简而言之，它必须接受一个巴勒斯坦国，这不仅是停留在口头上，而且要落实在行动上。


Until this happens, dangerous days lie ahead until Obama’s inauguration, and the international community will need strong, level-headed politicians to see it through.	一天不这样做，危险的日子就一直要持续到奥巴马就职典礼的日子，而国际社会将需要强有力的冷静的政治家来完成使命。


Bush’s Gambling Debts	布什的赌债


George W. Bush’s economic policies have been based on an extraordinarily reckless gamble that reflects a political coalition of two major forces: the super-rich and evangelical Christians.	乔治·W·布什的经济政策一直扎根于一场极其不计后果的赌博。 这场赌博反映了两个主要势力的政治联合：超级富豪和福音基督教会。


As those policies fail, global financial markets are reacting negatively, adding uncertainty to the world economy, and there is little relief in sight, because America is entering a period of prolonged political infighting and stalemate.	随着这些政策的失败，全球金融市场反应消极，增加了世界经济的不稳定性。 这种情况不会在可见的未来缓和，因为美国正在进入漫长的政治内讧和僵持的时期。


The super-rich had one over-riding objective in joining the Bush coalition: tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefited the wealthiest households.	超级富豪们加入布什联盟是有一个超越一切的目标的：给最富有的家庭带来压倒性利益的减税政策。


Evangelicals were brought in on the basis of so-called “family values,” meaning opposition to abortion and gay marriage, and promises of active government support for religious activities, including direct payments to religious groups for social services that they provide locally and internationally.	福音基督教会的加入则是建立在所谓的“家庭价值观”（即反对堕胎和同性恋婚姻）和政府积极支持宗教活动的许诺（包括直接为宗教团体在地方和国际上提供的社会服务买单）上的。


The Bush team believed that they would eventually balance the tax cuts for the rich with reductions in government spending, but they never explained this to the public.	布什集团相信他们最终能够在为富人减税和缩减政府开支之间取得平衡，但是他们从来没有向公众说明。


Instead, for four years they pretended that budget deficits were of little concern.	相反，四年来，他们假装不关心预算赤字。


Only after being re-elected did they begin to explain that large budget deficits, caused mainly by lower tax revenues, would require sharp cuts in social security, health care spending, and other areas.	直到再次当选之后，他们才开始解释那些主要由税收的减少引起的大规模预算赤字，要求大幅度削减社会保障、医疗保健和其他领域的开支。


But the majority of Americans, having supported the tax cuts in Bush’s first term because it gave them a little extra cash, do not support the attack on basic government services that has followed.	但是大多数美国人，尽管在布什第一任期内曾支持过减税（因为减税能让他们得到一点点额外的现金），现在却不支持随后对基本政府服务的抨击。


This opposition extends to Christian evangelicals voters, who tend to live in working-class and middle-class households that depend on many kinds of government social services.	持这种反对立场的还有福音基督教会的选民，因为他们大多生活在工人阶级和中产阶级家庭中，依赖政府的多种社会服务。


Despite the avowedly “free-market” beliefs of many Christian fundamentalists, as voters they support government-financed pensions, health care, and other public services.	尽管许多原教旨主义基督徒公开宣扬“自由市场”的信仰，但是作为选民，他们支持由政府提供资金的养老金、医疗保健和其他公共服务。


Bush’s tax cutting was irresponsible from the start, but became much more so after September 11, 2001.	布什的减税政策从一开始就是不负责任的， 2001年9月11日后则更加如此。


The Bush administration raised military spending sharply as it went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, and as it increased spending on national security at home, without ever explaining to the American people how this would be financed.	随着对阿富汗和伊拉克开战，同时在国内增加国家安全的开支，军事开支大大增加，但布什政府却从未向美国人民解释这些经费从何而来。


The military-plus-security budget soared by more than 2% of GNP, while tax revenues fell by much more.	军事加安全的预算猛增到了GNP的2%，而税收的减少却更多。


At the same time, Bush supported expenditure increases for popular items like education and prescription drug benefits, but paid for these services by borrowing the money rather than ensuring sufficient tax revenues.	与此同时，布什支持提高教育和处方药补助等大众项目的支出，但支付这些服务的方式却是借钱，而不是确保有足够的税收。


No sooner did this strategy pay off with a narrow re-election victory – one that strengthened Republican control of Congress – than the dark realities of Bush’s fiscal recklessness started to be recognized.	这个策略刚为布什赢得再次当选的胜利——这场险胜巩固了共和党对国会的控制——后不久，人们就开始认识到布什在财政上不计后果的作法。


The annual US budget deficit reached 5% of GNP, with an enormous part of the gap financed each year by Asian central banks, which now hold about $2 trillion in claims against America.	美国每年的预算赤字达到GNP的5%，而且差额中有很大一部分来自亚洲各国的中央银行。 这些央行目前已经持有2万亿美元的美国国债。


The problem is that Bush’s reckless gamble has now built up considerable political momentum.	问题是，布什不计后果的赌博现在已经积累起可观的政治动量。


As soon as he was re-elected, Bush started to propose cuts in popular government programs, but his own party is rejecting those cuts.	甫一当选，布什就提议削减大众化的政府计划，但却遭到他自己所在党派的反对。


With the Republican-controlled Congress seeking to make the tax cuts for the rich permanent, the world is beginning to realize that America’s budget deficits are now entrenched, with no end in sight.	随着共和党控制的国会企图使面向富人的减税政策永久化，世界开始意识到美国的预算赤字问题已经积重难返。


Because America’s economy is so large, and the dollar so central to global finance, chronic US budget deficits mean huge global repercussions.	由于美国的经济规模太大，美元在全球金融中的地位太高，长期的美国预算赤字意味着大规模的全球性影响。


The dollar is weakening, as financial markets understand that the US will need to borrow huge sums from abroad for years to come.	美元日趋疲软，因为金融市场知道美国今后需要从国外借贷大笔的资金。


More ominously, the willingness of foreign central banks to lend to the US also looks likely to end.	更不利的是，外国中央银行愿意借钱给美国的情况很可能就要结束。


After all, why should the central banks of China, Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries accumulate vast holdings of US Treasury bills if the dollar is likely to lose value in the years ahead?	毕竟，如果今后美元价值会下跌，中国、日本、韩国和其他亚洲国家的央行干吗还要收集大量的美国国库券呢？


In a bizarre, but not unexpected way, America is lashing out at others for its problems.	奇怪但并不出人意料的是，美国正在为自身的问题抨击他人。


Huge tax cuts and rising military spending have fueled an enormous rise in imports, and therefore a yawning trade deficit now accompanies America’s weak fiscal position.	大规模的减税和不断上涨的军事开支推动了进口的大幅度增加，因此现在巨大的贸易赤字伴随着美国虚弱的财政。


But US politicians are blaming China and other countries for “unfair trade,” even threatening them with sanctions.	但是美国的政客却责怪中国和其他国家进行“不公平贸易”，甚至威胁要制裁他们。


This response to homegrown problems plays well with voters, but it is ridiculous and ignorant, especially since the US has been depending on China to help finance the fiscal deficits.	这种对国内自身问题的反应选民们倒是买账，但它却是荒谬且愚蠢的，特别是因��美国一直依赖中国来帮助筹措财政赤字的资金。


In essence, the US is lashing out at its own banker, even as it asks the banker for yet more loans!	本质上，美国是在抨击它自己的付账人，即便它还在向这个付账人借更多的钱！


When Bush asked for spending cuts at the beginning of the year – including a social security reform that includes cuts in future benefits – world financiers expected that Bush would get his way, or most of it.	年初，当布什要求削减开支——包括一项包含将来减少福利的社会保障改革——的时候，世界上的投资者们就料到布什会得逞，至少在很大程度上如此。


Little did they appreciate that American voters, having never actually supported spending cuts, would resist.	他们并不认为从未真正支持过削减开支的美国选民会反对。


As that reality sinks in, economic prospects darken.	随着人们逐渐了解这个现实，经济前景会逐步黯淡。


Foreigners will become less enthusiastic about continued lending to the US, weakening the dollar further, forcing up US interest rates, and threatening to undermine America’s stock market and consumer spending.	外国人继续借钱给美国的热情会降温，从而使美元进一步贬值，迫使美国提高利率，并危及美国的股市和消费者开支。


But as the storm clouds gather in the coming year, the political coalition that put Bush in power will stifle progress in undoing the fiscal mess.	但是，随着来年的山雨欲来，将布什推上宝座的政治联盟会抑制解决财政混乱的步伐。


Bush’s gamble was a loser from the start, generating costly results – mainly for the US, but for the rest of the world, too – for years to come.	布什的赌博从一开始就注定失败，今后还将付出巨大的代价——主要是对美国，但对世界上其他国家也会有影响。


Bush’s Intellectual Torturers	布什的高智商刑讯人员


Paris – The top-secret memoranda released by the Obama administration concerning torture practices in CIA prisons shed new light on a fundamental question: how is it that people acting in the name of the United States government could so easily accept the idea of torturing the detainees in their charge?	巴黎——奥巴马政府公布的有关CIA监狱刑讯的绝密备忘录使人们对一个根本性的问题有了新的认识：那些顶着美国政府之名的人怎么会如此轻易地接受拷打囚犯的想法？


The newly published documents do not disclose the very facts of torture, which were already well known by whomever wanted to know them.	这些不久前公布的文件没有描述具体的刑讯过程，任何想知道的人都已经对此有了相当多的了解。


But they do reveal a great deal of information about how the torture sessions unfolded and how the agents involved perceived them.	不过这些文件的确包含大量有关刑讯过程和涉案探员想法的信息。


What is most striking is the discovery of niggling little rules, outlined in CIA manuals and co-opted by the government’s legal executives.	最令人震惊的发现是CIA指导手册中规定的、政府的法律专员采纳的琐细规定。


One would have thought that torture was the result of blunders or unintentional excesses committed on the spur of the moment.	一般人以为刑讯是一时冲动所做的错事或无意的过激行为。


On the contrary, these memos make clear that torture was a tactic formulated in minute detail.	然而事实正好相反，这些备忘录表明，刑讯是一种细致设计的策略。


In the Bush administration’s “guidelines,” torture can be divided into three categories, of varying levels of intensity: “baseline” (nudity, dietary manipulation, sleep deprivation); “corrective” (hitting); and “coercive” (water-dousing, box confinement, water-boarding).	在布什政府的“指导方针”中，刑讯可以分为三类，强度各异：“基础级”（不许穿衣服、不给吃饭、不让睡觉）、“调教级”（殴打）和“强制级”（浸水、箱内禁闭、向口鼻注水）。


For a facial slap, the interrogator was supposed to hit with fingers slightly spread, at equal length between the tip of the chin and the bottom of the corresponding earlobe.	打耳光时，审讯员应五指微微张开，打在下巴尖和耳垂正中间的位置。


Dousing a naked detainee with water was to last 20 minutes if the water’s temperature measured 5 °C, 40 minutes at 10 °C, and up to 60 minutes at 15 °C. Sleep deprivation could not exceed 180 hours, but could start over again after eight hours rest.	将赤裸的囚犯浸在水中，水温为5 C时可浸20分钟，10°C时可浸40分钟，15°C时最长可浸60分钟。 剥夺睡眠的时间不能超过180小时，但是在休息8小时后可以再来。


Water immersion in a tub could last up to 12 seconds, no more than two hours a day, for up to thirty days in a row.	溺水最多可持续12秒，每天不超过2小时，最多连续30天。


Waterboarding could last 40 seconds at most, though two prisoners were subjected to this torment a combined total of 286 times in a single month.	向口鼻注水最长可以持续40秒，不过有两名囚犯在一个月的时间里一共有286次受到这种酷刑。


Confinement in a small box could not exceed two hours, but if the prisoner could stand in the box, it could continue up to eight hours at a time, 18 hours a day.	禁闭在小箱子里的时间不能超过2小时，但是如果犯人可以在箱子里站起来，则每次可持续8小时，每天18小时。


If an insect was introduced into the box, rules governed that, too.	对于箱子里放入昆虫的情况也有相关规定。


How the torturers were trained is also disclosed.	刑讯人员的训练过程也有披露。


Most methods were reverse-engineered from the training given to US soldiers preparing to face “long and extreme” situations (which somehow enabled executives to conclude that these ordeals are perfectly bearable).	大多数方法是根据美国士兵在准备面对“长期极端”情形时所受的训练进行反向设计的（执行人员由此也认为这些拷打是完全可以承受的）。


In other words, the torturers had been tortured themselves.	换句话说，刑讯人员自己也经受过拷打。


An intense crash course lasting four weeks followed, enough to instruct them in their new jobs.	之后是为期四周的高强度速成班，足以指导他们胜任他们的新工作。


The Bush lawyers were the torturers’ necessary partners, whose work was intended to ensure legal impunity.	布什的律师是刑讯人员不可缺少的搭档。 他们的工作是为了确保法律上的免责。


This was also a novelty: torture does not appear as a breach of a common standard, unfortunate but justifiable.	这也是新鲜事物：刑讯似乎不是对公共准则的违反，不好但也情有可原。


Instead, it has a legal standard.	相反，刑讯竟然也有法律标准。


Here, lawyers fell back on another series of techniques.	在这里，律师们采取了另外一套技巧。


In order to circumvent the law, interrogation had to be conducted outside the US, even if that place was an overseas American military base.	为了规避法律，审讯必须在美国境外进行，即使是海外的美军基地也行。


The legal definition of torture implies the intentional infliction of severe suffering.	刑讯的法律定义包含故意施加严重的痛苦。


Torturers are thus advised to deny such an intention.	因此，律师们建议刑讯人员否认有这样的意图。


As a result, the goal of a facial slap is not to inflict physical pain, but to induce surprise and humiliation.	结果，打耳光的目的不是为了造成囚犯身体上的痛楚，而是让其感到惊讶和屈辱。


The purpose of confinement in a box is not to disorient someone, but to give the detainee a feeling of discomfort.	把囚犯囚禁在箱子里的目的不是为了让其慌乱，而是让他感到不舒服。


The torturer must always emphasize his “good faith,” “honest beliefs,” and the reasonable premise for them.	刑讯人员必须一直强调自己的“善意”、“真实的想法”和合理的假设。


So euphemisms were systematically used: “enhanced techniques” for torture, “interrogation expert” for torturer.	因此，委婉语得到了系统的运用：“强化手段”用来指刑讯，“审问专家”用来指刑讯人员。


Leaving material imprints is contra-indicated.	在肉体上留下痕迹的做法是禁忌。


To that end, mental damage is preferable to physical injury.	因此，精神上的伤害比身体上的伤害更可取。


Any video recordings of these sessions, not surprisingly, would be destroyed afterwards.	刑讯过程的所有录像记录不出意料都会在事后被销毁。


Various professional groups were involved with torture practices.	多方面的专业小组参与了刑讯。


Thus, the contagion went well beyond the torturers’ limited circle.	因此，这股歪风涉及的范围远远超出刑讯人员的小圈子。


Besides the lawyers legitimating the deeds, psychologists, psychiatrists, doctors (whose presence was mandatory at any session), and scholars also regularly provided moral, legal, or philosophical justifications.	除了使这种行为合法化的律师外，心理学家、精神病学家、医生（每次刑讯都必须有医生在场）、学者也经常提供道德、法律或哲学上的辩护。


And, while males inflicted torture, degradation in the presence of women enhanced the humiliation.	而且，在被男性拷打的同时，当着女性的面受辱也会加强囚犯的耻辱感。


Who is to be held legally liable for this perversion of the law and basic moral principles?	对于这种违背法律和基本道德准则的行为，谁应该付法律责任？


The volunteer who carries out the task of torture is less liable than the high-ranking civil servant who justified and nurtured it. And the latter is less liable than the political decision-maker who asked for it.	执行刑讯的志愿者所负的责任低于为刑讯开脱和创造条件的高级公职人员，而后者的责任又低于要求进行刑讯的政治决策者。


Friendly foreign governments, especially in Europe, can also be held responsible: although they knew about the torture, and took advantage of the information thus obtained, at no point have they expressed the slightest protest, or even signal their disapproval.	友好的外国政府，尤其是欧洲，也负有责任：他们知道刑讯的存在，也利用了刑讯得来的情报，但却没有在任何时候表示最轻微的反对，甚至没有做出任何不赞成的暗示。


Their silence was tantamount to consent.	他们的沉默等同于赞成。


Should we therefore prosecute them?	那么我们是否应该起诉他们呢？


The best democratic punishment for politicians is not to re-elect them.	对于政客来说，最好的民主惩罚是不再选举他们。


As for unelected collaborators and enablers, we can hope that they will be sanctioned by their peers: who would like to study with a professor who advocated torture?	对于非选举出身的同谋者和促成者，我们可以寄望于他们周围的人予以道德制裁：谁愿意跟随一名提倡刑讯的教授学习？


Who wants justice done by a judge who authorized brutality?	谁愿意让授权野蛮行为的法官来主持正义？


Who wants to be treated by a doctor who oversaw it?	谁愿意让指导过刑讯的医生来给自己看病？


If we are to understand why some Americans accepted administering torture so easily, we need not look for some ancestral hatred or fear of Muslims and Arabs.	想知道为什么某些美国人会如此轻易地同意实施酷刑，不需要从长久以来对穆斯林和阿拉伯人的仇恨或恐惧中寻找原因。


No, the cause is far worse.	不，真正的原因远比这些更糟糕。


The memos that the Obama administration has disclosed teach us that anyone who complies with seemingly noble principles dictated by a “sense of duty” or by the necessary “defense of the homeland,” or who is urged by a basic fear for his own life and welfare, or the lives and welfare of his kin, can become a torturer.	奥巴马政府公布的备忘录告诉我们，任何出于“责任感”或必要的“国防手段”而采纳貌似高尚的原则的人，或者因担心自身或同胞的生命与幸福而冲动的人，都有可能成为折磨别人的人。


Bush’s Last Chance	布什的最后机会


Though triggered by the need to devise an exit strategy from the Iraqi quagmire, the Iraq Study Group’s grim report is a devastating indictment of the Bush administration’s entire foreign policy.	虽然目的是为了寻求从伊拉克的泥淖中抽身的战略，但“伊拉克研究小组”的严酷报告却成为对布什政府整个外交政策的全然控诉。


The report challenges the core principles of a faith-driven administration and of a president whose political gospel led him to a sharp departure from the culture of conflict resolution in favor of a crusade based on raw power.	这份报告严重质疑了这届受信仰驱使的政府的核心原则，同时也对总统本人提出了挑战。 他在政治信仰的驱使下严重背离了化解冲突的一贯之道，并选择了以蛮力为后盾的讨伐。


A war that cannot be ended is sometimes worse than a war that is lost.	一场没完没了的战争有时比战败还糟糕。


Therefore, the Iraq report is more than a plan to rescue Iraq; it is a road map for extricating America from the mayhem of an unwinnable war.	因此，伊拉克报告就不仅是一份挽救伊拉克的计划，它也是让美国从一场打不赢的混乱战争中脱身的路线图。


However much the study group shunned recommendations for a precipitous withdrawal, and avoided strict timetables for disengagement, their report is not only an unequivocal repudiation of Bush’s “stay the course” obsession, but also a counsel to cut and run.	不论研究小组是多么努力地回避突然撤军的建议和严格的撤离时间表，但他们的报告实际上不仅是对布什“坚持到底”执迷不悟的批判，也是让美国赶紧抽身的忠告。


Indeed, there is no realistic chance that the Iraqi army and police will be able to take over combat responsibilities and effective policing any time soon.	的确，伊拉克军队和警察绝不可能在短时间内接过战斗和有效维护治安的重任。


The entire security apparatus in Iraq is corrupt and infiltrated by insurgents.	伊拉克的整个安全机器已经腐朽并被叛乱分子渗透。


Nor is it at all clear to what degree the Iraqis retain a stake in the idea of a united Iraqi state worth fighting for.	伊拉克人为一个统一的伊拉克国家而战的信念究竟在多大程度上还存在也不得而知。


The report practically calls for ending all support to the Iraqi government if it fails to assume its responsibilities.	这份报告实际上呼吁各方在伊拉克政府未能承担自己责任的情况下停止对其的一切支持。


None of the Middle East’s problems has a military solution, and none can be solved through unilateral action.	中东的问题没有一个能够通过武力解决，也没有一个能够通过单边行动解决。


The report is therefore right to challenge Bush’s insistence on discarding both Iran and Syria as interlocutors for a more stable regional order.	因此该报告质疑布什坚持放弃与伊朗和叙利亚对话，无意建立更稳定的地区秩序的做法是完全正确的。


Iran has the most leverage inside Iraq, and Syria has become a vital crossing point for weapons and insurgents into the Iraqi battlefield.	伊朗在伊拉克内部可以发挥最大的杠杆作用。 而叙利亚也已成为武器和叛乱分子进入伊拉克战场的重要节点。


There is simply no way that Iraq can be stabilized without America moving from a policy of disengagement to one of engagement with these two major regional spoilers.	如果美国不改变其现行政策，加强与该地区的这两个重要干扰者接触，那么伊拉克的稳定就没有希望。


The report thus stands as a rebuke to Bush’s entire “axis of evil” philosophy.	因此这份报告的立场其实是对布什“邪恶轴心”理论的谴责。


It refuses to ascribe to Iran’s secretive state an ideological rigidity that might not exist.	它拒绝将伊朗的神秘莫测归咎于一种莫须有的僵化的意识形态。


Indeed, Iran has shown its ability to behave with startling pragmatism more than once, not least in its links to Israel and the United States during its war against Iraq in the 1980’s, and in its assistance to the Americans in the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.	的确，伊朗已经不止一次地表明它能够适应高度实用主义的行为方式。 这种表现不仅仅在于其1980年代与伊拉克的战争中与以色列和美国的联系，及其支持美国人与阿富汗的塔利班武装对抗。


But it is not only Iraq that requires regional support groups to reach a modicum of stability.	但不仅仅是伊拉克才需要地区性的支持集团来实现些许的稳定。


All the problems of the Middle East – Iraq, the Arab-Israeli dispute, the need for political reforms, and Islamic terrorism – are interconnected.	中东地区的所有问题—伊拉克、阿以冲突、政治改革的需要和伊斯兰恐怖主义—都是相互关联的。


The interconnectedness of the problems in the outer circle of the region and those pertaining to the Arab-Israeli conflict in the inner circle was shown by the first Bush administration, which, in October 1991, following the first Gulf War, organized a major international conference aimed at securing an Arab-Israeli peace.	该地区的外围问题和与阿以冲突有关的内围问题的相互关联性已经由第一届布什政府展现出来。 在第一次海湾战争结束后的1991年10月，该届政府组织了一次旨在实现阿以和平的重要国际会议。


Neither the Israeli government nor its intimate ally in the White House can be expected to applaud the Iraq Study Group’s call for a repetition of that logic, for it contradicts everything the Bush administration has championed.	不能指望以色列政府和其白宫里的亲密盟友会欢迎“伊拉克研究小组”重复这一逻辑的呼吁。 因为它和布什政府所奉行的所有政策都相抵触。


The report’s recommendation for an international conference in the style of the Madrid peace conference is not only a timely indication of the linkage between the Israeli-Arab conflict and the region’s other troubles; it is also a long overdue reminder that bilateral negotiations between the parties can not produce an agreement.	该报告建议仿效马德里和平会议的形式召开一次国际会议，这不仅适时地指出了阿以冲突和该地区其它问题之间的联系； 它同时也在提醒我们注意一个早已不争的事实：双边谈判不能达成协议。


That realization prompted the all-Arab peace initiative of 2002, which established the conditions for an Israeli-Arab comprehensive settlement.	这一认识促成了2002年的全阿拉伯和平计划。 该计划设定了综合解决阿以问题的条件。


Alas, however bipartisan the Iraq Study Group’s report may be, it is too much to expect that Bush will endorse all of its recommendations and admit the bankruptcy of his entire foreign policy.	可不论“伊拉克研究小组”的报告有多么代表两党的共同观点，也不要奢望布什会采纳其所有的建议，并承认其整个外交政策的破产。


In fact, Bush has already expressed his objection to unconditional direct talks with Iran and Syria.	实际上，布什已经表达了他对与伊朗和叙利亚展开无条件直接会谈的反对意见。


Nor does he seem eager to open a rift with Israel by dragging its government to an international conference, the way his father did with Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir in 1991.	他似乎更不会因为将其政府带入一场国际会议而与以色列交恶，就像他的父亲在1991年时与沙米尔总理之间那样。


Bush will find it especially difficult to change his policy with respect to Iran.	布什要改变其对伊朗的政策会特别困难。


In order to ensure that the US is too harassed to be able to threaten it, Iran has consistently obstructed Bush’s mission of regional transformation.	为了确保美国不堪其烦，以致不能对其构成威胁，伊朗一直不断地阻挠布什实施地区性变革的使命。


The report urges the president to understand that the spoilers will not cease to be spoilers as a precondition of negotiations, but only as a result of them.	该报告敦促布什总统明白干扰者不会将停止干扰作为谈判的前提条件，而只会将其看成谈判的结果。


At stake is a painful choice for Bush: to lead America into coexistence with what he considers a repugnant Islamic theocracy.	布什面临着一个艰难的抉择：让美国实现和一种令他厌恶的伊斯兰神权政治的共存。


But Bush does not have many choices if he is to save his presidency from going down in history as an utter failure.	但如果布什不想让他的总统生涯钉在历史的耻辱柱上，那么他就没有太多的选择了。


His was a suicidal brand of statecraft from the outset.	他的治国之道从一开始就是自杀式的。


If he does not change course in Iraq and beyond, his presidency might draw the curtain on long decades of American hegemony in the Middle East – to the detriment of its closest allies in the region.	如果他不在伊拉克及更广泛的问题上改变路线，他的总统生涯可能会为美国在中东数十年的霸权揭开序幕—从而损害其在该地区最亲密的盟友。


Bush’s New Middle East	布什的新中东


President George W. Bush’s declaration of “mission accomplished” in Iraq five years ago was as hubristic as his current assessment that the “surge” has “delivered a major strategic victory in the broader war on terror” is a fantasy.	五年前，布什总统宣布伊拉克战争“使命胜利完成”时过于狂妄。 现在，他评价说“增兵”已经“在更为广泛的反恐战争中赢得了一场重要战略胜利”则是胡言乱语。


The Iraq adventure is not only the longest and most expensive war in America’s history – the Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz has advanced a staggering estimate of $3 trillion – but is also the least conclusive.	伊拉克战争冒险是美国历史上历时最长、耗资最多的一场战争。 诺贝尔经济学奖得主斯蒂格里茨估计其费用高达三万亿美元。


The war has pulverized Iraqi society, dissolving it into an ethno-sectarian patchwork.	这一战争把伊拉克社会碾成了粉末，各个教派分化林立。


The “surge” will end sooner or later, and the Iraqis, crippled by violence and corruption, will still be incapable of uniting their polity, and, with their military still unable to take over from the Americans, jihadi and inter-ethnic violence is bound to erupt again.	“增兵”早晚要结束，而惨遭暴力和腐败侵袭的伊拉克民众还是无法团结其政治组织。 而且，由于他们的军队还是无法从美国人那里接管过来，因此伊斯兰圣战组织以及不同族裔之间的暴力还是肯定会再次爆发。


As Iraqi Colonel Omar Ali, the Iraqi battalion commander in Mosul, the main focus of the insurgency today, recently put it, “Without the Americans, it would be impossible for us to control Iraq.”	摩索尔是当今反叛力量的主要据点，伊拉克军队驻在那里的一位营长阿里说：“没有美国人，我们根本不可能控制伊拉克。 ”


Wars, as Winston Churchill defined them, are always “a catalogue of blunders.”	丘吉尔曾经把战争定义为“大错的汇集”。


History’s judgment of the Iraq war will therefore certainly dwell more on whether it has accomplished its strategic objectives of “reconstructing” a highly dysfunctional Middle East in America’s democratic image and consolidating America’s hegemonic position in the region than on its price in blood and money.	历史对于伊拉克战争的评判因此肯定会更多地集中于它是否根据美国的民主构想实现了“重建”破败不堪的中东以及巩固美国在该地区霸权地位的战略目标，而非这一战争的流血和金钱的代价。


Strategically, the war was an utter failure.	从战略上说，这一战争完全失败了。


A clear case of imperial overstretch, the war strained America’s military, undermined the America’s moral standing worldwide and its reputation in the Middle East, severely threatened its economy, and showed to both friends and foes the limits of American power.	它是帝国实力过度延伸的明显例证，让美国军队疲惫不堪，破坏了美国在世界上的道德地位及其在中东的声誉，严重威胁了美国经济，并且向美国的盟友和敌人展示了美国实力的局限。


The most serious unintended consequence of the war is the emergence of a powerful Shia challenge to the West’s Sunni allies in the Middle East.	人们没有预料到的这一战争最为严重的后果是在中东出现了什叶派穆斯林对于西方逊尼派同盟的强大挑战。


America’s destruction of Iraq as a regional power handed hegemony in the Persian Gulf – whose centrality to Western interests cannot be overstated – to Iran’s Shia Islamist regime on a silver platter.	美国将伊拉克这一地区强国摧毁，从而把波斯湾的霸权拱手让给了伊朗的什叶派伊斯兰政权。 而波斯湾对于西方利益的重要性无以复加。


On the rubble of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, the Americans helped create in Iraq the first Shia-dominated Arab state, which may well become subservient to Iran’s regional ambitions – a calamity of historic dimensions for America’s Sunni allies.	美国在萨达姆侯塞因专制政权的废墟上帮助在伊拉克建立了第一个由什叶派占据统制地位的阿拉伯国家。 这一国家很可能臣服于伊朗的地区野心，这对于美国的逊尼派盟友而言是一个历史性的灾难。


President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s recent state visit to Iraq conveyed to the Americans an unequivocal message: the prospects of the United States ever reaching a modicum of stability in Iraq have become dependent on Iran-aligned forces.	内贾德总统最近对伊拉克进行国事访问向美国表达了这样一个明白无误的信息，也就是美国即使想在伊拉克稍微实现稳定也要取决于同伊朗结盟的势力。


America’s difficulties in Iraq and beyond contributed decisively to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.	美国在伊拉克以及其他地方的困境决定性地促成了伊朗的核子野心。


The Iranians now see themselves as immune from an American attack on their nuclear installations, for America’s troubles in Iraq and the growing opposition to the war in the US are a signal to them that America’s strategy of pre-emptive wars has failed.	伊朗现在认为自己不会受到美国对其核子设施的攻击，因为美国在伊拉克的麻烦和美国国内不断增长的反战活动向伊朗表明美国先发制人的战争战略已经失败。


But, however radical the Iranian regime might be, it is not suicidal.	但是，无论伊朗政权有多么的极端，它还不是自寻灭亡。


Hence, the threat of a nuclear Iran might consist less in its propensity to start a nuclear war with Israel than in its capacity to project its regional power effectively.	因此，拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁或许更多的是其可以有效地施展地区性实力，而非发动对以色列核战争的倾向。


A nuclear Iran might even threaten America’s capacity to project conventional military force in the Gulf in times of crisis.	拥有核武器的伊朗甚至可能在危机的时候威胁美国在海湾地区部署常规军力的能力。


Nor should the possibility be ruled out that Iran might be tempted to back its regional ambitions by supplying nuclear material to proxy terrorist groups.	也不能排除这样一种可能，也就是伊朗可能会受到诱惑通过向代理恐怖集团提供核子原料来支持其地区野心。


If anything, America’s debacle in Iraq has only emboldened the challengers of the status quo in the region.	美国在伊拉克的惨败如果有一点作用的话，那就是给中东地区现状的挑战者们壮了胆子。


That has also been the result of Bush’s ill-conceived democracy crusade in the Arab world.	这也是不时计划不周的、在阿拉伯世界推行民主圣战的结果。


Bush discovered to his dismay that any exercise in Arab democracy is bound to usher in anti-Western Islamists, be it the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Shia parties in Iraq, or Hamas in Palestine.	布什难过地发现，在阿拉伯只要实行民主就会招致反西方的伊斯兰份子，无论他们是埃及的穆斯林兄弟会还是伊拉克的什叶派党派或者是巴勒斯坦的哈马斯。


The US eventually had to abandon its fantasies about Western-style Arab democracy, but it ironically left the Iranians carrying the torch of democracy in the region.	美国最终不得不放弃了其建立西方模式的阿拉伯民主的幻想，但是它却让伊朗在该地区高举民主的火炬。


After all, Iran was quick to recognize that free elections are the safest way to undermine the Middle East’s pro-American regimes.	这难免有点讽刺意味。 毕竟，伊朗很快就意识到举行自由选举是破坏中东的亲美政权的最为稳妥的办法。


The Iraq war also meant that America ignored the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.	伊拉克战争还意味着美国忽略了巴以和平进程。


The chances that the Bush administration might be able to rally America’s Sunni “moderate” allies in the region to help salvage an Israeli-Palestinian peace are now hostage to an Iranian-led regional axis that includes Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria.	布什政府把该地区的“温和派”盟友团结起来帮助挽救巴以和平的机会现在受制于伊朗领导的地区轴心。 这一轴心包括哈马斯、真主党以及叙利亚。


All are united in their rejection of a Pax Americana in the Middle East, and all have so far shown remarkable resilience in ignoring America’s pre-conditions for a dialogue.	它们都拒绝接受中东的美国和平，而且都对美国展开对话的前提条件不屑一顾，表现得极为有韧性。


America’s inability to inspire the peoples of the Middle East, all ruled by US-backed autocracies, is not exactly stunning news.	中东人民都受到美国支持的专制政权的统制。 美国无力鼓舞这些人民并不令人惊讶。


What is news is that American power might also be losing its ability to intimidate them.	令人感到新奇的是美国的实力或许正在失去恐吓他们的能力。


Bush’s Old New Plan for Iraq	布什了无新意的伊拉克新政策


Last November’s Congressional elections dealt President George W. Bush a sharp rebuff over his Iraq policy.	去年十一月美国国会选举结果给布什总统的伊拉克政策以沉重打击。


Shortly after the election, the Iraq Study Group offered a bipartisan formula for the gradual withdrawal of United States troops.	选举后不久，伊拉克研究小组提出了一份超党派的、将美国军队逐步从伊拉克撤出的计划。


But Bush rejected this, and persists in speaking of victory in Iraq – though it is unclear what that now means.	但是布什予以拒绝，尽管语焉不详，他还坚持宣称要在伊拉克取得胜利。


Perhaps because Iraq will define his legacy, he has proven reluctant to let go at a point when his policy appears to be a disaster.	可能是由于伊拉克将决定布什在历史上的留名，他不情愿在他的政策看上去是一场灾难的当口让步。


Now Bush will increase the number of American troops in Baghdad and Anbar Province and try to stabilize both the rising sectarian civil war and the Sunni insurgency.	现在，布什将向巴格达和安巴尔省增兵，并且试图平息不断上升的部落间内战和逊尼派起义。


He has removed generals John Abizaid and George Casey, who were skeptical of a troop “surge,” and moved Ambassador Zalmay Khalizad, who was supposed to negotiate a political agreement in Iraq.	他撤换了对大幅增兵表示怀疑的阿比扎伊德和凯西两位将军，还调离了本应在伊拉克谈判一项政治协议的哈利勒扎德大使。


A number of the Democratic lawmakers who control the new Congress disagree with this approach.	控制新国会的几位民主党国会议员不同意这一措施。


Some Democratic activists seek an immediate withdrawal and are pressing for Congress to cut off funding for the war, but that is unlikely.	某些民主党活动分子寻求立即撤军并且正在给国会施压要求减少对伊拉克战争的拨款，但是这不大可能。


Congress is reluctant to be portrayed as failing to support troops in the field; while they will criticize, they will not block Bush’s plan.	国会不大愿意被描绘成为不支持前线战士； 尽管他们会予以批评，但是他们还是不会阻碍布什的计划。


Bush has long claimed that the number of troops in Iraq was a military decision and that he simply followed the advice of his generals, but now this is clearly not the case.	布什长期以来一直宣称在伊拉克的士兵人数是一项军事决定，而他只不过是听从了他的将军们的建议，但是，现在这明显不是如此。


Ironically, there may once have been a point at which a large increase in troops might have made a difference.	具有讽刺意味的是，过去有一段时间如果大幅增兵局面可能就会大不相同。


In April and May 2003, polls showed a majority of Iraqis welcoming the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.	2003年4月和5月，民意调查表明大多数伊拉克人欢迎推翻萨达姆。


But the Bush administration failed to control rioting, disbanded the Iraqi army, and allowed the security situation to deteriorate.	但是布什当局却未能控制骚乱，解散了伊拉克军队并且听任安全局势恶化。


In such chaos, it was difficult to do the reconstruction and development work that could have made Iraqi lives better and attracted support.	在这种混乱局面下难以实施重建和发展工作，这些工作本可以改善伊拉克人的生活并吸引支持。


It is not easy for a marine or soldier to construct a school or clinic when he is being fired upon, or for Iraqi moderates to risk their lives by being supportive when they have no protection against insurgents.	让一名海军陆战队或陆军士兵在受到枪击的时候修建一所学校或者诊所，或者让伊拉克的温和派人士冒着生命危险在没有保护不受叛乱份子杀害的情况下支持美国士兵的举动是难以做到的。


Many military professionals foresaw this problem.	许多军事专业人士预料到了这一问题。


US Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki warned that although it would be possible to win the war with the 160,000 troops that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld used, it would take double that number to win the peace.	美国陆军参谋长辛塞奇警告说，尽管有可能用国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德所使用的16万名士兵赢得战争，但是赢得和平却需要两倍的军力。


But because Rumsfeld wanted to prove a point about transforming American military strategy, and his neo-conservative advisors had ideological blinders that distorted their appraisal of Iraqi reality, Shinseki’s advice was rejected.	但是由于拉姆斯菲尔德想要证明让美国军事战略脱胎换骨的道理，以及他的新保守派顾问们因意识形态一叶障目、扭曲了对伊拉克现实情况的评估，辛塞奇的建议遭到了拒绝。


Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz testified to Congress that Shinseki’s estimate of the number of troops required was “wildly off the mark.”	国防部副部长沃尔福威茨在国会作证说，辛塞奇对士兵数量的估计“不着边际”。


In fact, it turned out that Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz were the ones wildly off the mark.	实际上，结果证明其实是拉姆斯菲尔德和沃尔福威茨的估计才不着边际。


Now both are gone, and Bush is turning to troop increases.	现在两个人都以不在任了，而布什则开始转向增兵。


Too little, too late.	现在为时已晚，而且是杯水车薪。


Is there any reason to believe that an additional five brigades will succeed in stabilizing Baghdad now when similar efforts have failed in the past?	有没有什么理由相信，过去的努力一无所获，现在增兵五个旅将会稳定巴格达的局势？


The new American operational commander in Iraq, Lt. General Raymond Odierno, says that the new efforts will be more evenhanded among Sunni and Shiite neighborhoods, and American troops will stay alongside Iraqi troops in areas that have been cleared.	美国新任驻伊拉克军事指挥官欧迪埃诺中将说，新的行动将对逊尼派和什叶派更加一视同仁，而且美国士兵将与伊拉克士兵共同驻扎在已经清理的地区。


He hopes that with a few months, he can then withdraw American troops to the periphery of Baghdad and leave the policing of the capital to Iraqi forces.	他希望，再经过几个月，他就可以将美国士兵撤到巴格达城边，并且把在首都执行警卫的任务交给伊拉克军队。


But this assumes that Iraqi forces are up to the task, and that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government, which rests upon Shiite militia support, can play a competent and evenhanded role.	但是这一局势的前提是伊拉克军队能够胜任工作，而且，依赖什叶派民兵支持的伊拉克总理马利基的政府能够扮演称职而又一视同仁的角色。


Bush administration officials argue that the new plan is “not an open-ended commitment: we are putting real, specific requirements and expectations on the Iraqi government.”	布什当局的官员们说，新的计划“并非是没有止境的承诺，我们对伊拉克政府提出了确实具体的要求和期望。


Among the political benchmarks are provincial elections, enactment of an oil law that distributes oil wealth in a way that benefits the Sunnis, and reform of the de-Baathifcation policy, which has been so costly to those who worked in the Iraqi government under Saddam.	”政治标准包括省份选举以及改革消除复兴党政策，在萨达姆时期在伊拉克政府中工作的人为这一政策付出了巨大的代价。


But it may be too late for political compromise, and the Maliki government may not be capable of a broad non-sectarian policy.	但是，做出政治妥协为时已晚，而马利基政府可能无法制定一个基础广泛的、没有教派偏见的政策。


If Bush’s new military plan is a temporary step to buy time to move in the direction of the Iraq Study Group’s proposals of training Iraqi forces and gradually withdrawing American forces, there may be something to be said for it as one last chance, but only if it is accompanied by the diplomatic advice that the study group also suggested.	如果布什新的军事计划是权宜之计，以便争取时间沿着伊拉克研究小组训练伊拉克军队以及逐步撤离美国军队的建议方向移动的话，那么，作为解决伊拉克问题的最后机会，它可能还是有点名堂。 但是，只有伴随该研究小组同时提出的外交行动建���才可能奏效。


It is too late to create a democracy in Iraq.	在伊拉克建立民主为时已晚。


At best, the overthrow of Saddam removed a threatening dictator, and substituted a tyranny of the majority for the tyranny of a minority.	大而言之，推翻萨达姆清除了一个构成威胁的独裁者，而将少数人的暴政代之以多数人的暴政。


But the price has been high in terms of Iraqi lives lost in sectarian fighting.	但是就在教派间战斗中丧失的伊拉克人而言，代价却是巨大的。


The goal now is regional stability.	现在的目标就是地区稳定。


Each of Iraq’s neighbors has its own interests, but none will benefit from chaotic violence there, which would increase Iran’s influence, encourage Kurdish separatism to the worry of Turkey, and support Sunni terrorist movements that could spill back into Jordan, Kuwait, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.	伊拉克的各个邻国各有自己的私利，但是，没有一个国家会从伊拉克的混乱暴力中受益。 这将增强伊朗的影响力，鼓励让土耳其担忧的库尔德分裂主义，并且支持有可能渗入回到约旦、科威特、叙利亚以及沙特的逊尼派恐怖主义运动。


The US cannot leave Iraq precipitously, but neither can it solve the problem on its own.	美国无法让伊拉克处于险峻的境地，但是它也无力单独解决问题。


Establishing a contact group of Iraq’s neighbors to help set rules of the road for stabilization and containment will be an important step.	建立伊拉克邻国组成的联络小组来帮助建立稳定和遏制的规则将是一个重要的步骤。


Iraq is not susceptible to a military solution.	无法以军事解决手段来处理伊拉克问题。


Only more politics and diplomacy can salvage US policy.	只有用更多的政治和外交手段才能够拯救美国的政策。


Bush’s Road Map to Failure in the Middle East	布什通往中东失败的路线图


Six long years of failed Middle East policies have finally brought President George W. Bush to recognize that the alliance of moderates in the region that he covets can only be forged through an Arab-Israeli peace.	经历了六年失败的中东政策之后，美国总统布什终于认识到，他所追求的该地区的温和派联盟只有通过巴以和平才能够形成。


Indeed, only by effectively addressing the Israeli-Arab dispute can he possibly salvage America’s standing in the region.	确实，只有有效地解决巴以冲突他才有可能挽救美国在该地区的地位。


But the round of peacemaking that America has recently embarked upon not only comes too late in the political life of a lame-duck president who has been defeated at home and abroad; it is also ill-conceived and unconvincing.	但是，在一个在国内外均遭受失败的跛鸦子总统的政治生命中，美国最近开始的和谈回合太迟了； 而且，它也准备不足，令人难以信服。


Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s adamant resistance to engage the Syrians is not exactly wise policy.	国务卿莱斯坚决抵制让叙利亚参与进来并非明智的政策。


The stakes for a peaceful regional order are too high for Israel and the United States to persist in refusing to put Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s current peace offensive to the test.	一个和平的地区秩序对于美国和以色列而言利益攸关，它们无法坚持拒绝考验叙利亚总统阿萨德当前的和平攻势。


The bones of contention that wrecked previous attempts to reach an Israeli-Syrian peace have realistic solutions, as was shown by the back-channel peace talks recently held between an Israeli ex-official and a Syrian with close connections to the regime.	过去试图达成以色列和叙利亚之间和平的努力遭受挫折，其争议是有现实的解决办法的。 最近，前任以色列官员和与一个与叙利亚政权有密切联系的叙利亚人通过秘密管道举行了和平谈判正说明了这一点。


Nor is Rice’s insistence on sticking to the failed “road map” for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement promising.	莱斯坚持遵循失败的巴以和解“路线图”同样也没有前途。


Susceptible to procrastination and evasion by both sides, the road map was stillborn.	双方都拖延和逃避该路线图，因而它也就胎死腹中。


Almost four years after it was first launched, neither of the parties has managed to muster the political will necessary to implement its primary provisions.	路线图发起几乎四年以后，没有任何一方鼓起必要的政治勇气来落实其主要条款。


Not even the bizarre idea, reserved for the second stage, of a Palestinian state with “temporary borders” is enticing for the Palestinians.	甚至，为第二阶段保留的“临时边境”的巴勒斯坦国这一古怪的想法对于巴勒斯坦人而言也没有吸引力。


This Gordian knot needs to be cut, not untied.	这一棘手的问题需要的是斩断，而不是去化解。


The concept of interim agreements has now become utterly obsolete, if only because the parties are incapable of paying the political price inherent in an open-ended, piecemeal process.	在一个各方无力付出其内在的政治代价的没有明确答案和零碎的进程中，达成临时协议的观念现在已经完全过时了。


Instead, what is called for is a sweeping solution to all the core issues.	实际上，现在所需要的是对所有核心问题的一个全面的解决方案。


We now stand at the end of the peace process as we have known it.	我们现在正处于我们所知道的和平进程的末尾。


From now on, our options will be a violent and unilateral disengagement, such as the one that ushered in the current war in Gaza, and a comprehensive peace plan that will have to be annexed to the road map and validated by an international peace conference.	从现在起，我们的选择要么是极端、单边的撤军，正是它引发了加沙现在的战争，要么是一个必须和路线图联系在一起、并且由一个国际和平会议确认生效的全面的路线图。


Only such “reverse engineering,” starting at the end and working backward – and legitimized and monitored by strict international mechanisms – might yet save the prospects for an Israeli/Palestinian peace from ruin.	只有这种“逆向工程”，也就是从末端开始并且从后向前进行工作，同时被严格的国际机制所合法化并且由其进行监督才有可能把以色列与巴勒斯坦和平的前景从废墟中解救出来。


As the launch of the peace process at the 1991 Madrid International Peace Conference demonstrated, the prospects for peace in the Middle East always needed a concerted international push to exploit windows of opportunity.	正如1992年马德里国际和平会议所发起的和平进程所表明的，中东地区的和平前景永远都需要国际社会的一致行动来挖掘和平的机会。


Wars in the Middle East, especially those , such as Israel’s recent war against Hezbollah, that ended inconclusively, have almost invariably created the conditions for major political breakthroughs, because they taught the warring parties the limits of power.	中东地区的战争，尤其是像以色列最近与真主党的那些没有最终结果的战争，几乎总是会给重大的政治突破创造条件，因为它们使作战的各方认识到了能力的局限性。


Trapped in a momentous struggle between the forces of peaceful change and those committed to Doomsday, the Middle East is once again calling for a major international effort at peacemaking.	中东深陷于呼唤和平转变和忠于末日审判人们之间的斗争，现在再一次呼吁国际社会努力来达成和平。


The initiators of the 2002 Arab peace initiative likewise understood that a strictly bilateral approach might be inadequate, and instead called to regionalize the solution to the conflict.	2002年阿拉伯和平倡议的发起者同样也认识到，单单让以色列和巴勒斯坦达成和解也许并不充分，所以他们呼吁达成一个使整个地区化解冲突的方案。


Loss of mutual trust between the parties, and their total incapacity to take even the smallest step towards each other, let alone to observe their commitments without prodding by third parties, made (and still makes) an international framework for peace the only way out of the dangerous impasse.	各方之间缺乏相互信任，以及他们无法向对方作出哪怕最小的让步，更别说在执行他们的承诺的义务时不会刺激到第三方的利益，使得唯有达成一个国际和平的框架协议，才能走出这个危险的僵局的，过去和现在都是如此。


The end of bilateralism stems also from the dysfunctional political systems of both Palestine and Israel.	无法通过双边协议来解决冲突，也缘于巴勒斯坦和以色列有着机能障碍的政治体系。


Today, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is gasping for political air under the smothering control of Hamas.	今天，巴勒斯坦总统阿巴斯因为受到哈马斯的压制，而无法在政治上有更多的作为。


On her recent trip to Israel, Rice had to listen to four different peace plans from the prime minister, the foreign minister, the minister for strategic threats, and the defense minister.	最近在去以色列访问时，赖斯从他们的总理、外交部长、战略威胁部部长和国防部长那儿听到的是四个不同的和平方案。


For both Israelis and Palestinians, achieving internal peace might prove as formidable a challenge as establishing peace with each other.	对于以色列人和巴勒斯坦人来说，要在内部达成和平也许要比在他们之间达成和平更艰难。


Any reformed peace process is doomed if it is guided by a road map within which, on the core issues, the parties have diametrically opposed views.	如果一个由路线图所引导的和平进程，其中的各方对于核心问题都持完全相反的观点的话，那么它注定会是失败的。


But there is no need to reinvent the wheel, because the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict is embodied in the main peace plans that are already on the table: the Clinton peace parameters, and the all-Arab peace initiative.	这并不意味着我们要推倒重来，因为化解阿拉伯与以色列的矛盾的解决方案体现在了已经被摆上桌面的主要和平计划中：即克林顿的和平参数，和在整个阿拉伯实现和平的倡议。


Fifteen years after the Madrid Conference began a formal peace process between Israelis and Palestinians, the parties are wiser as to what is inevitable if this tortuous process is to lead to a permanent settlement.	在马德里会议的十五年之后，以色列和巴勒斯坦开始了正式的和平进程，各方都明白如果这个痛苦的进程要达成永久的和平的话，哪些事情是必须要做的。


In 1991, they convened on a platform of “land for peace.”	1991年，他们开始提出要以“土地换和平”。


But the Israelis never believed they would have to give back all the land, while the Arabs did not think they might have to offer “all the peace.”	但是以色列人从来不相信他们必须归还所有的土地，而阿拉伯人也不认为他们也许将不得不提供“所有的和平”。


Today, at long last, everyone knows what is meant by “land,” and everyone knows what is meant by “peace.”	今天，所有的人终于都明白了“土地”意味着什么，并且所有的人也终于都明白了“和平”意味着什么。


Bush’s Second Gulf Disaster	布什的又一次海湾灾难


President Bush has asked that Americans not “play politics” at this moment of terrible national disaster.	布什总统要求美国人在可怕的全国性灾难降临之际切勿“弄权”。


But asking hard questions of our nation’s leaders is exactly what democracy demands when the government’s response to Hurricane Katrina is widely viewed as “a national disgrace.”	但政府对飓风卡特里娜的处理却被很多人称作“国家的耻辱”，在这样的情况下，质问我们的国家领袖恰恰是民主自身提出的要求。


Katrina came with at least two days’ warning, but authorities waited to issue an evacuation order.	卡特里娜来袭的前两天就已经发出了警报，但政府却延误了签发撤离指令的时间。


There was no transportation for people without cars or money, facilities to house and care for refugees were insufficient, there were no forces in place to deliver desperately needed supplies or to secure order, and there was nowhere near the number of boats, helicopters, and other craft necessary to rescue the stranded.	没有为无钱无车的人提供交通工具，住宿设施和对灾民的救护力量也严重不足。 没有人负责运送急需的给养或者维持秩序，用来解救被困群众的船只、直升飞机和其它工具也严重不足。


Hampered by a National Guard with 40% of its people in Iraq, the pace of getting military personnel to the hardest hit areas was inordinately slow.	由于国民警卫队40%以上的军力驻扎在伊拉克，将军事人员派到重灾区的进展极为缓慢。


For four days, there was simply no clear center of command and control. As a result, countless people suffered and died.	灾难发生后，有整整4天时间根本找不到指挥和控制中心，结果导致无数平民受难乃至死亡。


Much of this failure is the result of the Bush administration’s policies, which effectively eroded the capacities of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the government agency primarily responsible for dealing with disasters.	这些问题都是布什政府所推行政策的结果，这些政策大大削弱了负责应对灾难的主要政府机构，联邦紧急措施署（FEMA）的救灾能力。


Obsessed with the war on terror as well as an ideology of privatizing the functions of government, the administration systematically sapped FEMA’s long-term ability to prevent disaster or at least cushion the blows when prevention is not possible.	由于反恐战争和政府职能私有化理念的困扰，政府全面削减了联邦紧急措施署预防长期灾害，或至少在预防无效的情况下减轻灾害后果的能力。


FEMA was downsized and downgraded from a cabinet position, then placed under the Department of Homeland Security.	布什政府裁减了联邦紧急措施署的规模，剥夺了该署原来在内阁的席位，将其转划给国土安全部管辖。


Its mission of disaster planning and preparation was dropped entirely, and its focus was altered to fight terrorists.	该署灾前规划和准备等方面的职能已经彻底停止，其工作重点转向了与恐怖分子做斗争。


Its leadership had no experience in disaster management.	紧急措施署的领导人根本不具备灾害管理的任何经验。


The past director was one of Bush’s Texas political cronies, and the current director’s qualifications include a stint as commissioner for judges and stewards with the International Arabian Horse Association, where he was asked to resign for “supervision failures.”	上一任署长是布什在得克萨斯州的得力亲信，而现任署长曾担任过法官署署长，以及国际阿拉伯马协会干事，并在那里由于“管理失误”被要求辞职。


Since 2001, billions of dollars were shifted from disaster relief to homeland security and the war in Iraq.	2001年以来，成百上千亿美元的救灾款项被国家安全和伊拉克战争所挪用。


Key disaster mitigation programs were slashed and federal funding for post-disaster relief was cut in half.	重要的减灾计划被砍掉，用作灾后重建的联邦资金也被削减了一半。


The Army Corps of Engineers’ budget for levee construction in New Orleans was gutted, including funds specifically aimed at the Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control Project.	美国陆军工程兵团在新奥尔良的建坝费用被侵吞，用于路易斯安娜州东南部城市水灾控制项目的专项资金也未能幸免。


Preventive measures to protect people and property were not carried out despite FEMA’s own conclusion in 2001 that a major hurricane hitting New Orleans was one of the three “likeliest, most catastrophic disasters facing this country.”	保护居民和财产的预防性措施根本没能落到实处，尽管联邦紧急措施署曾经在2001年亲自认定：袭击新奥尔良的飓风将是美国所面临的三大“最现实、最悲惨的灾难”之一。


Believing FEMA to be an “oversized entitlement program” and that the “business of government is not to provide services,” Bush’s first FEMA director instituted new outsourcing requirements as part of a major privatization effort.	由于认定联邦紧急措施署属于“过度膨胀的福利项目”以及 “政府的职能不是提供服务”，布什任命的首位联邦紧急措施署署长制定了新的外包计划，开始了全面的私有化进程。


This provoked a brain drain as experienced FEMA personnel moved into the private sector	这一举措导致了人才的大量流失，很多经验丰富的联邦紧急措施署雇员纷纷转入了私有部门。


Privatization also left poorer states and poorer communities especially vulnerable.	私有化也使贫困的州和社区更加不堪一击。


As money dried up and federal programs were contracted out to private firms at higher rates, only the richest and politically most important states and communities could compete successfully for the scarce federal grants necessary to pay for services.	由于资金枯竭，联邦项目以高价承包给市场上的私有企业，所以只有最富裕、政治上最重要的州和社区才能成功地获得用于交换服务的稀缺的联邦拨款。


For example, Florida (with 16 more electoral votes than Louisiana and where the president’s brother governs) received its requested funding to protect its wetlands.	举例来讲，佛罗里达（比路易斯安娜多16张选举人票，而且由总统的兄弟管辖）拿到了湿地保护所需要的费用。


By contrast, a more needy Louisiana (with its staggering 24% poverty rate) was denied its request for flood-mitigation funds in 2004.	恰恰相反，更需要这笔款项的路易斯安娜（该州贫困率达到了令人惊讶的24%）却没有拿到2004年用于减灾的资金。


With Louisiana’s ability to protect itself weakened and the center of disaster relief badly undermined, an inadequate government response and unnecessary destruction were almost inevitable – with the poor paying the price.	由于路易斯安娜州自我保护的能力下降、救灾中心的运营也存在严重的隐患，政府反应能力不足和不必要的灾难破坏几乎不可避免¾而最终付出代价的是那些穷人。


But the failure of this administration runs deeper than its chronic and intentional diversion of resources away from the types of policies that keep people safe from disaster.	但除了经常性地有意挪用保护人类免受灾难的政策所必须的那些资源，本届政府还犯下了更为严重的错误。


Despite scientific evidence demonstrating that the increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes is related to climate change, the Bush administration systematically rejects participation in international climate-protection regimes.	尽管有科学证据表明飓风越来越频繁、破坏力越来越大与气候变化有关，但布什政府却全面拒绝加入国际气候保护机制。


Rather than continue a ban on wetlands development instituted by previous administrations, the Bush administration overturned it.	布什政府不但没有延续上届政府推行的禁止湿地开发的政策，反而将其彻底推翻。


Because development-provoked erosion has brought the Gulf of Mexico 20 miles closer to land than it was in 1965, hurricanes are able to retain more strength, and their winds and waves pack more speed and destructive power.	由于发展造成的侵蚀已经使墨西哥湾与陆地的距离比1965年拉近了20英里，从而使飓风能够积累更多的能量，也使狂风和波涛速度更快、破坏力更强。


Similarly, loss of wetlands threatened New Orleans’ levees, which were built on the assumption that they would have 40 to 50 miles of protective swamp as buffer between the city and the Gulf of Mexico.	与此相似，湿地的丧失也威胁到了新奥尔良的大坝，因为建坝的基础是认定城市和墨西哥湾之间存在着40到50英里保护性沼泽的水面缓冲。


Despite every major study showing that a massive coastal restoration program and higher levees were needed to protect New Orleans, the administration permitted federal agencies to stop protecting 20 million acres of wetlands, allowed developers to drain thousands of acres and in 2004 cut funding for holding back the waters of Lake Pontchartrain by more than 80%.	尽管所有的重要研究都显示保护新奥尔良需要推行大规模海岸恢复计划和加高防洪堤坝，政府却还是允许联��机构停止保护面积达2000万英亩的湿地，允许开发者抽干成千上万英亩湿地中蓄积的水份，并在2004年将用于彭恰尔特恩湖水土保护的资金削减了超过80%。


New Orleans is America’s canary in the mineshaft.	新奥尔良就像被困在美国矿井中的一只金丝雀。


Ideologies of privatization that incapacitate effective government, permitting the privileged to save themselves while leaving the poor clinging to roofs, must now be challenged.	它现在必须向夺去政府力量、允许特权阶层自救而把穷人丢在屋顶的私有化理念发出挑战。


This disaster is a chilling reminder of what happens when government fails to protect its citizens, and it is imperative that Americans demand accountability.	这次灾难令人齿冷地使我们想起政府不能保护人民的时候会发生什么悲剧，美国也必须要有人为此承担责任。


Officials who did not do their jobs must be dismissed, and elected officials whose policies aggravated the devastation wrought by Katrina must be removed from office.	没有完成任务的官员必须要被解职、推行加剧了卡特里娜飓风破坏力政策的当选高官也必须进行撤换。


We owe this to the dead and to the survivors.	我们只有这么做，才能对死难人员和幸存者做出交代。


Business as Usual with Russia?	俄罗斯一切照旧？


BERLIN – Despite continuing tensions over Russia’s invasion of Georgia this August, the European Union will reopen talks with Russia on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA).	柏林——尽管今年8月俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚造成的紧张局势仍在持续，欧盟还是将就一项新的伙伴与合作协议（PCA）重新开启与俄罗斯的对话。


A PCA establishes a legal framework for negotiating specific agreements in such areas as trade, justice, and human rights.	PCA是磋商贸易、司法和人权等领域具体协议的法律框架。


The current talks aim to replace the expired 1997 PCA, which remains in force by mutual consent pending a new accord.	当前的对话旨在替换1997年就已过期、但双方同意在签订新的协定之前继续有效的PCA。


At an emergency meeting on September 1, EU leaders refused to continue the PCA talks until Russia removed its combat units from the Georgian separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.	在9月1日的紧急会议上，欧盟领导人拒绝继续PCA对话，除非俄罗斯将作战部队从格鲁吉亚分裂分子控制的阿布哈希亚和南奥塞梯地区撤出。


The heads of the 27 EU governments also characterized the Kremlin’s decision to recognize the independence of the two breakaway regions as “unacceptable.”	欧盟27国政府的首脑同样将俄罗斯承认这两个分裂地区的独立看作是“不可接受的”。


Since then, EU governments have moderated their conditions, describing a simple Russian military withdrawal from Georgian territories outside the two regions as sufficient to resume a dialogue on the PCA, energy security, and other issues.	之后，欧盟各国政府降低了条件，声称俄罗斯只要从这两个地区以外的格鲁吉亚领土上撤军就够了，可以继续有关PCA、能源安全和其他问题的对话。


The EU decision comes at a time when NATO has also sought to renew its engagement with Russia after the Georgia conflict led both parties to suspend many joint programs.	欧盟做出这个决定的时候，北约也在格鲁吉亚冲突导致双方中断了许多联合项目之后试图重新开始与俄罗斯的约定。 9月18日，北约秘书长谢佛尔在伦敦皇家联合军种研究所演讲。


In a speech on September 18 at the Royal United Services Institute in London, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer argued that, despite differences over Georgia, Russia and the alliance should cooperate “wherever our interests converge.”	他说，尽管在格鲁吉亚问题上有分歧，但俄罗斯和北约应该“在我们有着相同利益的所有领域”合作。 他特别谈到了在阿富汗的长期合作。


He specifically cited continued cooperation in Afghanistan, where Russia is providing logistical support for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, as “a clear indication that common interests can transcend disagreements in other areas.”	在那里，俄罗斯向北约领导的国际安全救援部队提供后勤支持。 他说这“清楚地表明，在其他领域，共同的利益可以超越分歧”。


In order not to appear intimidated by Russia’s forceful dismemberment of Georgia, NATO governments have publicly reaffirmed their support for Georgia’s territorial integrity and the country’s desire to join NATO eventually.	为了不显得被俄罗斯强行分裂格鲁吉亚的行为所恐吓，北约各国政府纷纷公开重申对格鲁吉亚领土完整和该国加入北约的愿望的支持。


In private, however, many allied officials have told the media that they are even less inclined than they previously were to deepen NATO’s ties with Georgia, given the risks of becoming entrapped in another Russian-Georgian war.	然而私下里，许多北约官员都曾告诉媒体，他们比以前更不情愿加深北约与格鲁吉亚的关系，害怕陷进又一场俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚的战争。


At present, it seems most Western governments have decided to concentrate on helping Georgia recover economically from the war rather than on punishing Russia directly.	当前，大多数西方政府似乎都已决定集中帮助格鲁吉亚的经济从战争中恢复过来，而不是直接惩罚俄罗斯。


At last month’s International Donors’ Conference in Brussels, they pledged billions of dollars of reconstruction aid.	在上个月的布鲁塞尔国际捐助者会议上，他们承诺提供数十亿美元的重建援助。


The EU is also considering negotiating a free-trade area with Georgia and relaxing visa rules for Georgian citizens.	欧盟还在考虑与格鲁吉亚协商建立一个自由贸易区，以及放宽对格鲁吉亚公民的签证限制。


NATO has established a special NATO-Georgian Commission to help coordinate allied support for Georgia’s post-conflict reconstruction.	北约成立了一个专门的北约－格鲁吉亚委员会，帮助协调北约对格鲁吉亚战后重建的援助。


Even so, Russian and Western officials continue to spar over American plans to deploy ballistic missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.	尽管如此，俄罗斯和西方的官员仍在美国计划在波兰和捷克共和国部署弹道导弹防御系统的问题上争吵不休。


In his speech in November to the Russian parliament on the state of nation, President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia would deploy short-range Iskander missiles in the Baltic Sea port of Kaliningrad “to neutralize if necessary the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe.”	11月，梅德韦杰夫总统在对俄罗斯国家杜马的国情咨文演说中警告，俄罗斯会在加里宁格勒的波罗的海港口上部署短程的伊斯坎德尔导弹，“在必要时抗衡欧洲的反弹道导弹系统”。


Medvedev added that Russian electronic equipment would jam the American systems and that the Russian military was preparing additional countermeasures.	梅德韦杰夫还说，俄罗斯的电子设备会干扰美国的系统，而且俄罗斯军方还在准备其他的对策。


NATO and EU leaders denounced the threats, which seemed especially gratuitous coming one day after the American people had elected a new President who has expressed interest in improving relations with Russia.	北约和欧盟领导人谴责了这些威胁，但这些谴责在美国人民刚刚选出了一位有意改善美俄关系的新总统之后一天做出，显得尤其无稽。


Russia’s government has also sought to showcase its growing military potential.	俄罗斯政府还试图展示该国不断增长的军事潜力。


In September and October, the country’s strategic forces engaged in their largest nuclear weapons-related exercises since the Soviet Union’s demise.	9月和10月，该国的战略部队举行了苏联解体以来规模最大的核武器相关演习。


On October 12, the Russian Navy joined with the Strategic Rocket Forces to conduct a well-integrated exercise involving near-simultaneous testing of three long-range ballistic missiles from separate ground and submarine launch platforms.	10月12日，俄罗斯海军联合战略火箭部队进行了一场十分协调的演习，演习期间还从不同的地面和潜艇发射平台试射了三个远程弹道导弹，进行了同时发射试验。


Last month, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin also announced yet another increase in Russian defense spending.	上个月，普京总理又宣布俄罗斯国防开支还将再次增加。


Russian military expenditures have increased by double-digit figures in recent years.	近年来，俄罗斯军队开支以两位数的增幅上升。


This year, the Russian military will spend over $40 billion.	今年，俄军方将花掉400亿美元以上。


The figure for 2009 could exceed $50 billion.	2009年，这个数字可能超过500亿美元。


Although superficially impressive, this surge obscures several key issues.	表面上看起来虽然很惊人，但这样的增长掩饰了几个关键问题。


Much of the growth merely compensates for the exceptionally high inflationary pressures in Russia’s defense sector.	军事开支的增加大部分仅仅是为了补偿俄罗斯国防部门内极高的通胀压力。


In addition, it will take years for the recent budget increases to translate into new equipment.	另外，近年来的预算增长需要很多年才能形成新的设备。


Although Russian designers can still develop first-class weapons, Russia’s defense companies, which have yet to recover from the traumatic disintegration of the Soviet military-industrial complex, remain unable to manufacture large numbers of the most advanced systems.	尽管俄罗斯的设计者仍有能力开发一流的武器，但俄罗斯的国防公司还没有从苏联军事工业解体的创伤中恢复过来，仍不能大批量地制造最先进的系统。


Russia’s military also must compete with foreign customers for those few warplanes, tanks, and other sophisticated weapons that are produced.	俄罗斯的军方还必须和国外的客户争夺仅有的军用飞机、坦克和其他精密武器。


The long-term sustainability of Russia’s military revival is also unclear.	俄罗斯军事复兴的长期可持续性也不确定。


Russia’s government remains dependent on oil and gas exports for revenue, but the prices of these commodities are falling sharply.	俄政府仍依靠出口石油和天然气赚钱，但这些商品的价格正在急剧下跌。


Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia is tightly integrated into the world economy, rendering the country vulnerable to the current global financial crisis.	不同于苏联，俄罗斯与世界经济的关系密不可分，因此该国在当前的全球金融危机面前十分脆弱。


Medvedev recently warned that Russia’s “military-industrial complex is starting to be affected by credit problems,” stoking fears of a return to the paralyzing payment crises that plagued the defense sector during the 1990’s.	不久前梅德韦杰夫警告说，俄罗斯的“军事工业联合体开始受到信用问题的影响”，使人愈加担心上世纪90年代困扰国防部门的支付危机再次发生。


Russia’s continuing demographic problems will also make it difficult for the armed forces to become a fully professional military, one that does not depend on poorly motivated conscripts.	俄罗斯悬而未决的人口问题同样使武装部队难以成为完全职业化的军队，而不用依赖征募来的士气低落的士兵。


Although Medvedev and Putin have apparently adopted a viable power-sharing arrangement, Russia’s stunted political institutions lack the capacity to root out corruption and other inefficiencies.	虽然表面上梅德韦杰夫和普京采取了可行的权力共享措施，但俄罗斯发育不良的政治制度缺乏根除腐败和其他低效因素的能力。


Comprehensive security-sector reform remains off the political agenda.	国家保障部门的全面改革仍未提上政治议程。


Even in the high-priority defense sector, perhaps one-third of government spending is wasted or stolen – a condition that is not conducive to realizing Russia’s great power ambitions.	就算在高优先级的国防部门内，可能也有三分之一的政府开支被浪费或贪污——这种情况决不利于俄罗斯实现其极大的权力野心。


The Business Case for Sustainability	从商业角度论可持续性


BERKELEY – Investors worldwide are increasingly seeking investment opportunities that promise to bring environmental and social benefits, in addition to market rates of return.	伯克利—越来越多的全球投资者开始寻找在市场回报率之外还能带来环境和社会效益的投资机会。


If this trend continues, with the advancement of environmental or social objectives enhancing an investment’s value, it will strengthen the commitment to sustainability that is already gaining momentum among businesses around the world.	如果这一趋势持续下去，随着环境和社会目标的推进强化一项投资的价值，将十分有利于已经在全球企业中间风生水起的可持续性承诺。


Last year, one out of every six dollars of assets under professional management in the United States – a total of $6.6 trillion – was allocated toward some form of sustainable investment, especially public equities.	去年，美国专业管理的资产中有六分之一（大约6. 6万亿美元）配置给了某种形式的可持续投资，特别是上市公司。


Some 1,260 companies, managing $45 trillion worth of assets, are signatories of the United Nations’ “principles for responsible investment,” which recognize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors – and thus the long-term health and stability of companies and markets – as critical to investors.	大约1,260家公司——它们管理着价值45万亿美元的资产——签署了联合国的“负责任的投资原则”。 该原则认为环境、社会和治理（ESG）等因素——因此公司和市场的长期健康和稳定亦然——是投资者所要考虑的关键问题。


One signatory, CalPERS, one of the world’s largest institutional investors, has gone a step further: it will require all of its investment managers to identify and integrate ESG factors into their decisions – a bold move that could transform capital markets.	加州公务员退休基金（CalPERS）是全世界最大机构投资者之一，它也是签署者之一，但它更进一步，将要求所有投资经理认识ESG因素并将其纳入投资决策中——这是一项可能改变资本市场的举措。


The number of companies issuing sustainability reports has grown from fewer than 30 in the early 1990s to more than 7,000 in 2014.	发布可持续性报告的公司从20世纪90年代初的不到30家增加到2014年的7,000多家。


And, in a recent Morgan Stanley survey, 71% of respondents stated that they are interested in sustainable investing.	而在最新的摩根士丹利调查中，71%的受访者表示对可持续投资感兴趣。


To be sure, a major barrier to incorporating ESG criteria into investment decisions remains: many investors – including 54% of the respondents in the Morgan Stanley survey – believe that doing so could lower the financial rate of return.	平心而论，阻挠将ESG标准纳入投资决策的一个主要障碍仍然存在：许多投资者——包括摩根士丹利调查的54%的受访者——认为这样做可能降低财务回报率。


But there is mounting evidence that this is not the case, with several recent studies indicating that sustainable investments do as well as – or even outperform – traditional investments.	但越来越多的证据表明并非如此，一些最新报告表明，可持续投资和传统投资表现一样出色，甚至更胜一筹。


A seminal 2012 study that analyzed two groups of companies – similar in terms of industry, size, financial performance, and growth prospects – found that those in the “high sustainability group” had superior share-price performance.	一项2012年的讨论研究分析了两组行业、规模、财务表现和增长前景相近的公司，结果发现“高可持续性组”的公司股票表现卓著。


And a new study by Morgan Stanley’s Institute for Sustainable Investing, which analyzed the performance of 10,228 open-ended mutual funds and 2,874 separately managed accounts in the US, found that sustainable investments usually met – and often exceeded – the median returns of comparable traditional investments for the periods examined.	摩根士丹利可持续投资研究所（Institute for Sustainable Investing）的一份最新研究分析了美国10,228家开放式共同基金和2,874个独立管理账户的表现，发现可持续投资通常能够达到可比传统投资相同考察期内的中位回报，并且常常表现更好。


Many ESG factors come into play when evaluating sustainable investment options.	许多ESG因素在评估可持续投资选项中起作用。


For example, the Generation Foundation – the think tank of Generation Investment Management (on whose advisory board I serve) – identifies 17 environmental factors, 16 social factors, and 12 governance factors relevant to sustainability.	比如，代际基金会（Generation Foundation）是代际投资管理公司（我是其顾问委员会成员）的智库，该基金会归纳了与可持续性有关的17项环境因素，16项社会因素和12项治理因素


The challenge is to distinguish between the ESG factors that have a material influence on company performance and those that do not.	挑战在于区分对公司表现有和没有实质（material）影响的ESG因素。


But the data that companies currently report are inadequate to enable investors to make this distinction.	但目前的公司报告数据不足以让投资者做出这一区分。


The non-profit Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) is attempting to change that by developing material sustainability accounting standards for 80 industries, consistent with the US Security and Exchange Commission’s compliance regulations.	非营利组织可持续性会计准则委员会（Sustainability Accounting Standards Board，SASB）正在尝试通过开发80个行业的符合美国证券和交易委员会（Security and Exchange Commission）合规规则的实质可持续性会计准则。


More than 2,800 participants – including companies with market capitalization totaling $11 trillion and investors with $23.4 trillion in assets under management – have been involved in the SASB process.	超过2,800家机构——包括市值总和高达11万亿美元的公司和资产管理规模高达234亿美元的投资者——参与了SASB流程。


Using the SASB’s proposed standards for 45 industries, as well as other metrics, a new study – the most definitive so far – has found that companies that perform well on material sustainability factors have better operational performance, are less risky, and earn significantly higher shareholder returns than companies that perform poorly.	一份新研究——目前为止结论最强的研究——使用SASB对45个行业的建议标准和其他指标，发现在实质可持续性因素方面表现出色的公司经营表现更好，风险更低，股东回报也显著高于表现不佳的公司。


Similarly, a new framework recently proposed by Morgan Stanley for valuations of companies in 29 industries includes ESG factors that pose material risks or opportunities.	类似地，摩根士丹利最近采取了新框架评估29个行业的公司，该框架包括了带来实质风险或机会的ESG因素。


Whereas a company is traditionally valued based exclusively on how it deploys financial capital to generate returns, the new framework incorporates how it deploys natural, human, and social capital, as well as the transparency of its governance practices.	传统的估值方法完全根据公司怎样配置金融资本获取回报来进行，而新框架考虑如何配置自然、人力和社会资本以及治理行为的透明度。


This new approach to company valuation reflects the view that the most successful companies will be those that deploy all four kinds of capital responsibly.	这一新的公司估值方法反映了一个观点：最成功的公司将是那些负责任地配置所有四类资本的公司。


Material ESG factors can affect a company’s financial performance and shareholder returns through several channels.	实质ESG因素可以通过多种渠道影响公司的财务表现和股东回报。 比如，更有效地使用能源和资源��以降低成本；


For example, more efficient energy and resource use can lower costs; better management of human talent can boost productivity; stricter safety, health, and environmental rules can reduce the risk of serious accidents; and new green or fair-trade products that appeal to consumers can increase revenues.	更严格的安全、健康和环境规则可以降低严重事故风险； 而吸引消费者的新的绿色或公平交易产品可以增加收入。


Consider investments that improve the energy efficiency of data centers, which use 10-20 times more energy than average commercial buildings, and thus are responsible for considerable greenhouse-gas emissions.	以改进数据中心的能源效率的投资为例。 数据中心的能源消耗量是普通商业建筑的10—20倍，因此会排放出大量温室气体。


Decisions about data-center specifications are important for managing costs, obtaining a reliable supply of energy and water, and lowering reputational risks, particularly given the increasing global regulatory focus on climate change.	关于数据中心规格的决定对于管理成本、获得可靠的能源和水供给以及降低名誉风险（特别是在全球监管日益聚焦于气候变化的情况下）至关重要。


Google’s construction of data centers that use 50% of the energy of an average data center has brought it considerable savings.	谷歌数据中心的建设比普通数据中心节能50%，这给该公司带来了可观的节约。


Similar success stories have played out across sectors.	类似的成功故事在各行各业都有。 自2011年以来，美国化学公司杜邦公司投资8.


Since 2011, the US chemical company DuPont has invested $879 million in research and development of products with quantifiable environmental benefits; it has recorded $2 billion in annual revenue from products that reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, and an additional $11.8 billion in revenue from renewable resources like wind and solar power.	79亿美元用于包括定量环境效益分析在内的产品研发； 据其报告，每年降低温室气体排放的产品给该公司带来20亿美元收入，而可再生资源（如风能和太阳能）更是能够带来118亿美元收入。


Likewise, the multinational consumer goods company Procter and Gamble reported $52 billion in sales of “sustainable innovation products” from 2007 to 2012.	类似地，跨国消费品公司宝洁公司报告，2007—2012年“可持续创新产品”销售高达520亿美元。


That is roughly 11% of the company’s total sales over that period.	这相当于同一时期该公司总销售额的11%左右。


There are good reasons to believe that, by investing in improving material sustainability, companies can increase shareholder value.	有理由认为，公司可以通过投资于改进实质可持续性增加股东价值。


In fact, if a company is to fulfill its fiduciary responsibility to its investors, it has little choice but to go beyond financial returns to incorporate ESG factors that are likely to have a material impact on its performance over time.	事实上，如果一家公司意欲实现对其投资者的委托责任，它就别无选择，必须超越财务回报，考虑可能对其长期表现形成实质影响的ESG因素。


This is precisely the kind of incentive that could propel the world toward a more sustainable future.	这正是能够驱使世界走向可持续未来的激励。


The Business of Improving Global Health	改善全球健康的生意


ZURICH – The dramatic success of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in driving advances in human health will be a hard act to follow.	苏黎世—千年发展目标（MDG）在推动人类健康方面取得了巨大的成功，要继续成功下啊去很难。


In just 15 years, child mortality was nearly halved, and malaria deaths declined by 60%.	在仅仅15年里，儿童死亡率下降了一半，疟疾致死率下降了60%。


Today nearly 15 million people worldwide receive treatment for AIDS, helping them continue to be productive members of society, compared to only about 10,000 people in 2000, when the MDGs were launched.	如今，全世界近1,500万人能获得艾滋病治疗，帮助他们继续成为有生产力的社会成员，而在2000年MDG启动时，这一数字只有10,000人。


Can the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), just adopted by the United Nations to guide global development efforts for the next 15 years, replicate the MDGs’ success?	刚刚被联合国采纳、指导未来15年全球发展措施的可持续发展目标（SDG）是否能够复制MDG的成功？


The strong track record of the MDGs certainly provides grounds for hope.	MDG的漂亮历史记录显然让我们感到大有希望。


But the new health-related goals are broader and more ambitious than before.	但新的健康相关目标比此前的目标更广泛、更宏大。


And the public-health situation is in many ways more challenging than in 2000.	而从诸多角度看，公共卫生状况也比2000年更具挑战性。


The new SDGs set a lofty goal: for the first time, world leaders have vowed to reduce premature deaths caused by chronic illnesses such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes.	新的SDG制定了一个崇高的目标（goal）：历史上第一次，世界领导人承诺要减少因癌症、心脏病和糖尿病等慢性疾病所引起的过早死亡。


This is a tall order at a time of rapid population growth and rapid aging.	在人口快速增长和快速老龄化的当下，这是一个艰难的任务。


Chronic diseases are the main – and growing – cause of death in developed and developing countries alike.	慢性病在两种情况中都是致死主因——并且占比日益提高。


And more than two billion people still lack access to essential medicines.	而超过二十亿人仍然无法得到基本药物。


To achieve the new targets, we must find creative new ways to address the world’s biggest health challenges.	要实现这些小目标（target），我们必须找出创造性新办法解决世界最大的健康挑战。


Above all, we must develop new business models that allow society to better harness the know-how, creativity, and drive of private enterprises to help improve public health.	最重要的是，我们必须开发新的商业模式，让社会更好地利用知识、创造力和私人企业的推动力改善公共卫生。


Companies share the responsibility for meeting these new goals, but they also need support from governments and other organizations to ensure the greatest positive impact.	公司共同承担着实现这些新目标的责任，但它们也需要来自政府和其他组织的支持才能保证积极影响最大化。


The demographic challenge is daunting.	人口挑战十分紧迫。


A billion people joined the human race in just the last 12 years.	在过去12年中，十亿人加入了人类大军。


Another billion or so will join by 2030, bringing the world’s population to 8.5 billion, according to UN estimates.	据联合国估计，2030年将再新增十亿人，让全球人口达到85亿人。


The fastest-growing segment of the population is people over 60, a group that is expected to grow by 500 million people, to 1.4 billion, in 2030.	其中增长最快人群为60以上人群，预计到2030年，这一人群人数将增加5亿，达到14亿人。


Older people are more likely to develop chronic illnesses, which now account for 63% of all deaths worldwide.	年长者更容易罹患慢性病，而如今慢性病导致了63%的全球死亡总人数。


The World Health Organization predicts that the proportion will reach 70% in the next ten years, with most of the deaths occurring in developing countries.	世界卫生组织预测，未来十年这一比例将达到70%，其中大部分死亡发生在发展中国家。


Some 28 million people die from chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries each year, accounting for roughly three-quarters of all deaths caused by chronic disease globally.	在中低收入国家，每年大约有2,800万人死于慢性病，占全球慢性病致死总人数的四分之三左右。


Developing countries’ health systems are already stretched.	发展各国卫生体系已经捉襟见肘。


They often lack medicines, resources, and know-how to treat chronically ill patients, who may require years or decades of treatment.	它们常常缺少药物、资源和知识治疗慢性病患，这些病人可能需要几年乃至几十年的治疗。


For example, there are only four oncologists in Ethiopia, a country of some 97 million people.	比如，埃塞俄比亚有9,700万人，但只有四名肿瘤科医生。


Moreover, many developing countries face a double disease burden and must wage a simultaneous battle against infectious diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS.	此外，许多发展中国家面临加倍的疾病负担，必须同时与疟疾、结核病和艾滋病等传染病抗争。


Clearly, more resources will be needed to tackle these challenges.	显然，我们需要更多的资源应对这些挑战。


But in the wake of the global financial crisis, development assistance for health from governments and private donors has plateaued at about $35 billion annually, after growing more than 11% per year from 2000-2010.	但在全球金融危机面前，来自政府和私人赞助者的发展援助徘徊在每年350亿美元左右，而在2000—2010年期间，这一数字每年都能增加11%以上。


And less than 2% of that money was directed at combatting chronic diseases.	而这些援助资金中只有不到2%被用于遏制慢性病。


The long-term nature of chronic diseases, and the complexity of providing better treatment for patients in the developing world, calls for innovative solutions.	慢性病的长期性，以及为发展中世界病患提供更好治疗的复杂性，需要我们找到创新性方案。


Companies possess the capabilities and the global scale to play a stronger future role in addressing public-health challenges and achieving the objectives of the SDGs.	公司有能力，也有全球规模，未来能够在解决公共卫生挑战、实现SDG子目标（objective）方面扮演更重要的角色。


Some corporations are beginning to explore new “social business” approaches that will allow them to meet the needs of people and society in the developing world, while at the same time covering their costs, or even making a small profit.	一些公司正在探索新的“社会企业”方法，该方法让它们满足发展中世界的需要，同时又能覆盖成本甚至略有盈利。


Moneymaking social ventures are self-sustaining and have the potential to grow, bringing benefits to more and more people.	赚钱的社会事业可以自我维持，并拥有成长潜力，惠及越来越多的人。


They are a potentially powerful complement to philanthropy, which has underpinned much recent progress in public health.	它们是慈善事业强大的潜在力量，而如今慈善事业是公共卫生进步的基础。


My company, for example, is launching a portfolio of 15 essential medicines to treat diseases including diabetes, respiratory illnesses, and breast cancer.	比如，我的公司正在推出一个由15中基本药物组成的组合，用于治疗包括糖尿病、呼吸道疾病和乳腺癌在内的疾病。


The aim is to make these medicines available to people of modest means in developing countries at a cost to local health systems of $1 per treatment per month.	该组合的目标是让发展中国家收入不高的人群获得这些药物，而当地卫生系统的每次治疗每月成本只要1美元。


We will start in Kenya, Vietnam, and Ethiopia.	我们将从肯尼亚、越南和埃塞俄比亚开始。


It is a small first step, and we will learn as we go, with a goal of expanding to 30 countries in a few years.	这是一小步，我们会在前进中学习，目标是几年内将该组合扩展到30个国家。


To overcome the many hurdles to success in low- and middle-income countries, these new types of business ventures will likely need to explore innovative forms of collaboration with governments, non-governmental organizations, and other companies.	要克服在中低收入国家成功所面临的诸多障碍，这些新型创业企业可能需要探索与政府、非政府组织和其他公司的创新合作形式。


Such collaboration has already shown that working across traditional boundaries, making creative use of technology, and developing pragmatic solutions can yield impressive results.	这类合作已经证明，跨越传统工作界限、创造性地使用技术以及开发务实解决方案能够带来令人印象深刻的成果。


Bringing health care to everyone on the planet is a great challenge.	让全球人人健康是一个艰巨的挑战。


It will take imagination, cooperation, and hard work.	它需要想象力、合作和艰苦奋斗。


Greater involvement by business could increase the likelihood of getting there by 2030.	商业的更大的参与能够增加在2030年实现这一目标的机会。


Safe Driving for Fast Companies	快公司的安全驾驶


MONTREAL – In a car, blind spots are the areas of the road that the rearview and side-view mirrors do not show.	蒙特利尔—在汽车上，盲点是指后视镜和侧视镜无法看到的路面区域。


A driver must constantly be aware of them – and of the potentially deadly perils they can conceal.	司机必须时刻警惕它们——以及它们所掩盖的潜在死亡风险。


Businesses can have blind spots, too – and they can be equally costly, causing companies to overinvest in risky ventures or fail to take advantage of emerging opportunities.	企业也可能存在盲点——代价也同样高昂，导致公司过度投资于高风险业务尝试，无法利用新兴机会。


Successful leaders are careful to identify their company’s blind spots and introduce mechanisms to ensure that no harm will come from them.	成功的领导者会十分仔细地识别公司的盲点，引入相应机制确保不会因此造成伤害。


One common source of businesses’ blind spots is judgment bias.	企业盲点的一个共同源头是判断偏误。


This arises when executives have overly narrow views of their industry, underestimate their competitors’ capabilities, or fail to see how the competitive landscape is changing.	当高管对行业看法过于偏隘、低估竞争者能力或没有发现竞争局面正在改变时，就会产生判断偏误。


A good example of a company that suffered from this kind of blind spot is Nestlé.	公司因为此类盲点而蒙受损失的范例是雀巢公司。


For decades, the Swiss multinational defined itself strictly as one the world’s leading food companies.	几十年来，这家瑞士跨国公司严格捍卫着自己全球领先食品公司的地位。


The label created a self-imposed restriction, constraining Nestlé to sell a relatively narrow range of products.	这个标签产生了作茧自缚的效果，将雀巢的产品线限定在一个相对狭窄的范围内。


In 2010, however, the company’s CEO, Paul Bulcke, redefined Nestlé as a “nutrition, health, and wellness” company.	但是，2010年，公司CEO保罗•布克（Paul Bulcke）将雀巢重新定义为“营养、卫生和健康”公司。


It was a brilliant strategic decision, allowing the firm to offer dozens of new product lines and services.	这是一个高明的战略决策，让雀巢公司能够提供几十种新产品线和服务。


Many executive teams are overconfident about their company’s competitive strength.	许多高管团队过度自信于他们的公司的竞争优势。


In front of their board, they rattle off exaggerated claims about where the company stands; some 80% of annual reports claim that their company is “the leader in the market.”	在董事会面前，他们滔滔不绝地夸大公司状况； 80%左右的年报宣称公司是“市场领先者”。


Unfortunately, this kind of arrogance can lead to complacency and competitive failure.	不幸的是，如此傲慢可能导致自鸣得意和竞争失败。


Many financial institutions, for example, are inadequately prepared to confront the new players entering their markets.	比如，许多金融机构没有做好充分准备面对进入市场的新竞争者。


Google, which is quietly testing the car-insurance waters, holds a banking license.	悄然进行汽车保险试验的谷歌公司已经持有银行牌照。


Meanwhile, Square, Paypal, and the start-up company Affirm are already processing a large share of online payments.	与此同时，Square、Paypal和新创业的Affirm等公司都已经开始在在线支付领域攻城略地。


In today’s fast-paced world, it takes only a single technological improvement, price advantage, or great viral advertising campaign for a competitor to leap ahead.	在当今快节奏的世界中，竞争者只需要一个技术创新、价格优势或一次出色的病毒广告攻势就能脱颖而出。


New players can materialize seemingly out of nowhere.	新公司几乎可以无中生有。


The taxi company Uber did not exist five years ago; it is now valued at more than $40 billion.	出租车公司Uber五年前还不存在； 如今它的估值已超过400亿美元。


The rapid expansion of Alibaba threatens Western retailers who never expected to face a Chinese competitor.	阿里巴巴公司的快速扩张威胁了从未预料到会面对中国竞争者的西方零售商。


Driverless cars and pilotless planes will soon transform many industries.	无人驾驶汽车和飞机马上也将改变许多行业。


Another frequent cause of companies’ blind spots is historic bias, or what psychologists call an “anchoring bias” – the assumption that something that was true in the past will continue to be true in the future.	另一个常常造成公司盲点的因素是历史偏见，或心理学家所谓的“锚定偏见”——即认为过去正确的东西在未来将依然正确。


A long track record of success can warp executives’ analysis, distort their decision-making, and leave them blind to incipient paradigm shifts or rapid changes in a market.	长期成功记录可能改变高管的分析，扭曲他们的决策，让他们看不见处于萌芽状态的范式转变或市场的快速变化。


When the American retailer Target opened its first store in Canada in March 2013, its management assumed that the recipe of its success in the United States could be replicated north of the border.	当美国零售商塔吉特公司（Target）于2013年3月开出第一家加拿大门店时，其管理层认为在美国成功的秘诀也可以在美国的北方邻国奏效。


Instead, just 22 months later, the company announced that it would close all of its 133 Canadian stores and lay off 17,000 people.	但是，只过了22个月，塔吉特公司就宣布将关闭所有133家加拿大门店，裁员17,000人。


Target’s American experience turned out to be a bad predictor of what it could expect in Canada.	事实证明，塔吉特公司的美国经验绝非其在加拿大的合理期望值。


Overcoming historic biases requires questioning an industry’s taboos.	克服历史偏见需要挑战一个行业的禁忌。


For example, if the creators of television series like Game of Thrones, the most pirated show in history, stopped fighting copyright infringement, they could seize an opportunity.	比如，如果史上被盗版最严重的电视剧《权力的游戏》（Game of Thrones）的制片商不去和产权侵犯行为作斗争，或许可以抓住机会。


Advertisements directly embedded in the show would reach five million additional – illegal – viewers, in effect doubling their audience.	剧中的直接植入广告将被500万新增——非法——观众看到，增加一倍受众。


The television industry is not alone in failing to question and revise its traditional models, methods, and operations.	电视行业没有质疑并改写传统模式、方法和经营手段，但它们绝不是孤立。


The postal industry, for example, could learn a lesson from airlines, train companies, travel agencies, and hotels, all of which increase their prices during periods of high demand.	比如，邮政业可以从航空、铁路、旅行社和饭店等行业中汲取教训，后四者都会在高需求阶段涨价。


The assumption that the price of mailing a letter or shipping a package should remain constant throughout the year is ripe to be challenged.	认为寄信或邮递包裹应该全年一个价的观点应该遭到挑战。


Guarding against blind spots takes careful thought, but executives and boards can put processes in place to protect against them.	针对盲点的保护措施需要仔细思考，但高管和董事会可以设置程序保护公司。


For starters, companies should diversify their talent pool.	首先，公司应该多元化人才储备。


Managers should ensure that they have access to people who think differently from them.	管理层应该确保他们能接触到思维不同的人。


Iconoclasts and outside experts should be invited to share their views.	反偶像崇拜者和外部专家应该被邀请前往分享观点。


At least 20% of a company’s board should be composed of individuals from outside the industry.	至少20%的公司董事会席位应该由来自行业外的个人组成。


Views from other generations and other parts of the world should be sought and solicited.	来自其他辈分和世界其他地区的观点也应该主动出击去寻找和聆听。


Executives should make special efforts to break taboos, examine unchallenged assumptions, and question their businesses’ most sacred rules.	高管应该花大力气打破禁忌、考察未受挑战的假设、质疑企业最神圣的规则。


Even simple methods, like writing down and challenging every assumption on which a company has based its strategy, can yield valuable insights.	即使是简单的方法，比如把作为公司战略基础的每一条假设都写下来并批驳，也能产生极有价值的洞见。


Every company should assign someone to play the role of “dissenter.”	每个公司都应该指定人手扮演“持异见者”的角色。


Sometimes called the “China breaker,” this person should be given time during board meetings to throw the good dishware against the wall and see what can be made of the pieces.	有时还需要“打破瓷器的人”，让他在董事会会议期间的某个时候把好端端的盘子砸向墙壁，然后看看可以用碎片做些什么。


Industries are becoming increasingly complex and global competition is mounting.	各行业都在变得日益复杂，全球竞争也在变得日益激烈。


The companies that will be best placed to survive will be those that took the proper precautions to avoid being run off the road.	生存概率最高的公司是那些未雨绸缪、避免被踢出路的公司。


Busted Bailout	被否决的救市计划


CAMBRIDGE – Spend in haste; repent at leisure.	剑桥-仓促花钱，从容忏悔。


With minds concentrated by fears of another 1930’s-style Great Depression, America’s political leaders developed, virtually overnight, a $700 billion bailout plan to resuscitate the country’s rapidly deflating financial sector.	随着心思集中在对又一场1930年代般的的经济大萧条的恐惧上，美国的政治领袖们几乎在一夜之间通过了一个7000亿美元的救市计划，以重振该国的迅速瓦解的金融部门。


But, just as stunningly, rank-and-file members of the US House of Representatives have rejected it – at least for now.	但是，一样令人震惊的是，美国众议院的普通的议员们把此计划给否决了，至少目前的情况是这样。


Perhaps they were right to be skeptical.	也许他们表示怀疑是对的。


The plan’s central conceit is that government ingenuity can disentangle the trillion-dollar “sub-prime” mortgage loan market, even though Wall Street’s own rocket scientists have utterly failed to do so.	该计划的核心的自以为是的想法是，政府的聪明才智可以梳理高达万亿美元的“次级”抵押贷款市场，即使华尔街自己的如火箭科学家聪明的人员在解决这个问题上也已经完全失败。


To boot, we have been told that government is so clever that it might even make money on the whole affair.	首先，我们已被告知，政府非常聪明，它甚至可能会在整个事件上赚到钱。


Perhaps, but let’s not forget that a lot of very smart people in the financial industry thought the same thing until quite recently.	也许是吧，但我们不要忘记，曾几何时，金融业内的很多非常聪明的人也曾这么认为。


Just a year ago, the United States had five major freestanding investment banks that stood atop its mighty financial sector.	就在一年前，美国还有五个大型的独立投资银行，它们傲立在强大的金融界之巅。


Collectively, their employees shared more than $36 billion dollars in bonuses last year, thanks to the huge profits these institutions “earned” on their risky and aggressive business strategies.	去年，由于这些机构从他们冒险和激进的商业策略“挣来”的巨额利润，五大投行的雇员拿到的奖金累计超过了360亿美元。


These strategies typically involve far more risk – and sophistication – than the activities of traditional commercial banks.	这些战略通常涉及比传统的商业银行的风险和复杂程度大得多的行为。


In mid-August, I had the temerity to predict that risks had come home to roost, and that a large US investment bank might soon fail or be forced into a highly distressed merger.	8月中旬，我曾冒然预测风险将进一步加大，并有一大美国投资银行可能很快破产或者被迫以令人不安的方式被合并。


Little did I imagine that today, there would be no freestanding investment bank left on Wall Street.	当时没想到今天连一家独立的投资银行也没有留在华尔街上。


Indeed, after years of attracting many of the world’s best and brightest into ultra-high paying jobs, collapsing investment banks are now throwing them out left and right.	事实上，多年来，华尔街以超高薪的工作机会吸引了世界上许多最好的和最聪明的人才，而现在崩溃的投资银行把他们一个个解雇了。


One such victim, a former student, called me the other day and asked, “What am I supposed to do now, get a real job?”	我以前的一个学生，也是个这样的受害者，有一天给我电话问道， “我现在到底该怎么办，找一份真正的工作？ ”


This brings us back to the US Treasury’s plan to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to unclog the sub-prime mortgage market.	这又让我们又回到了美国财政部的花费数千亿美元以疏通次级抵押贷款市场的计划。


The idea is that the US government would serve as buyer of last resort for the junk debt that the private sector has not been able to price.	这个计划的想法是，美国政府会充当万不得已的买方来买金融界一直未能定价的垃圾债券。


Who, exactly, would the Treasury employ to figure all this out?	财政部会雇用谁来计算出这一切呢？


Why, unemployed investment bankers, of course!	喔，当然是失业的投资银行家！


Let’s ponder this.	让我们好好思考以下这些。


Investment bankers have been losing their cushy jobs because they could not figure out any convincing way to price distressed mortgage debt.	投资银行家们不断地在丢掉其轻松的饭碗，因为他们不能找出任何令人信服的方式定价其不良押贷款债务；


Otherwise, their firms would have been able to tap the trillions of dollars now sitting on the sidelines, held by sovereign wealth funds, private equity groups, hedge funds, and others.	否则，他们的公司本来可以利用由主权财富基金、私人股本集团、对冲基金等等拥有的而现在在场外的数万亿美元。


Now, working for the taxpayer, these same investment bankers will suddenly come up with the magic pricing formula that has eluded them until now.	现在，他们为纳税人工作了，同样的这些投资银行家们却会突然拿出神奇的一直难倒他们的定价公式。


Little wonder that academics across the political spectrum have expressed considerable skepticism.	无怪乎在各种政治背景下的学者都对此表示相当的怀疑。


True, the Treasury would take equity stakes in some firms, so there would be some upside potential.	诚然，财政部就会接受一些公司的股权，所以也就会有一些上升的潜力。


But the main concern centers around the Treasury’s apparent intention to pay more than double the current market price (20-30 cents on the dollar) on the premise that its success in untangling the mortgage market would make any discount seem like a bargain.	但主要关注的问题的中心是，财政部显然打算支付两倍以上的当前市场价格（ 20-30美分），其理由是，如果财政部成功解开按揭市场的一团乱麻，就会使得任何降价都看上去像是便宜货。


Does such nitpicking fail to recognize the urgency of fixing the financial system?	这种吹毛求疵是否没有看到调整金融体系的紧迫性呢？


Isn’t any plan better than none?	是否只要有计划总比没有要好？


I, for one, am not convinced.	我本人不相信这一点。


Efficient financial systems are supposed to promote growth in the real economy, not impose a huge tax burden.	高效的金融体系是为了促进的实际经济的增长，而不是施加巨大的税务负担。


And the US financial sector, in greasing the wheels of the real economy, has been soaking up an astounding 30% of corporate profits and 10% of wages.	美国的金融部门，在给实际经济车轮上油的的过程中，已吸取了企业总利润的30 ％和总工资的10 ％的，这令人震惊。


Thus, unlike in the 1930’s, the US faces a hypertrophied financial system.	因此，不同于1930年代，美国目前面临着过于庞大的金融体系。


Isn’t it possible, then, that rather than causing a Great Depression, significant shrinkage of the financial sector, particularly if facilitated by an improved regulatory structure, might actually enhance efficiency and growth?	那么，是不是有可能，金融业的大萎缩，特别是如果伴随着改善了的监控结构，不仅不会导致大萧条，还实际上可能提高效率和增长？


I am not suggesting that the government should sit on its hands.	我并不是说，政府应该袖手旁观。


It needs to provide an expanded form of deposit insurance during this time of turmoil, so that there are no more Northern Rock-style bank runs.	在这一动乱时期，政府需要推出一种扩大形式的存款保险制度，这样就不会出现更多的类似北岩银行所遭遇的银行挤兑。


That was a big lesson of the 1930’s.	这是1930年代给予我们的一个很大的教训。


The government may also need to consider injecting funds more directly into the mortgage sector while the private sector reconstitutes itself.	政府可能还需要考虑更直接地注资到抵押贷款业界，而让私营业界进行自我恢复。


Certainly, the government must also find better ways to help homeowners and their lenders work out efficient bankruptcy proceedings.	当然，政府也必须找到更好的方法来帮助业主和他们的贷款方找出有效的破产程序。


It makes no sense for banks to foreclose on homes when there are workout options whereby people could stay in their homes and banks could recover far more money.	当还有可行的其它方案能让人们留在自己的家园而银行可以收回更多的钱时，银行收回房子是毫无道理的。


Eventually, after further twists, turns, and huge expenditures, the US will emerge from its epic financial crisis.	最后，经过进一步的曲折、转折和巨大的开支，美国将摆脱其巨大的财政危机。


The proposal that was defeated was not sufficiently targeted at pruning back insolvent banks, but it will almost certainly not be the last word, regardless of how Congress now proceeds.	被否决了的计划没有充分地针对裁减破产的银行，但几乎肯定的是，无论国会如何行动，这绝不会是最后的定论。


Butlers, Bakers, and Capitalists?	男管家，面包师，和资本家？


The communist revolution that spanned the nineteenth and twentieth centuries was about concentrating government ownership of capital.	跨越十九和二十世纪的社会主义改革围绕着集中政府对资本的所有权。