On the other hand, medium-term consolidation will be all but impossible in America’s current atmosphere of hyper-partisanship, with Republicans blocking any tax increase and Democrats resisting reforms of entitlement spending.	另一方面，在美国目前超级党派纷争的氛围中，在共和党否决一切增税计划而民主党抵制所有消费权益改革的情况下，实现中期稳定目标几乎根本不可能。


Nor is there any pressure from bond markets to concentrate the minds of policymakers.	债券市场也没有任何压力能让决策者的思维更加集中。


In the periphery of the eurozone, the problem is the opposite: bond vigilantes are demanding that Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy front-load fiscal consolidation or watch their borrowing costs go through the roof, risking them their market access and triggering a public-debt crisis.	欧元区外围却恰恰反映出问题的另一面： 债券义和团要求希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利提前进行财政整顿，否则就要他们眼看自己的借款成本飞涨威胁到相关市场准入并成为诱发公共债务危机的导火索。


Markets don’t care that front-loaded fiscal consolidation is exacerbating recession and thus making the goal of reducing debt and deficits as a share of GDP near-impossible to achieve.	市场并不在意这种提前进行的财政整顿会导致经济衰退恶化，从而使减少债务和赤字占GDP比重的全球任务几乎无法完成。


To avoid a persistent and destructive recession, the fiscal and structural reforms imposed by the bond vigilantes should be accompanied by other euro-zone policies that restore growth and prevent vicious debt dynamics.	为防止陷入持续破坏性的经济衰退，债券义和团推行的财政和结构改革必须伴随着其他恢复经济和防止恶性债务趋势的欧元区政策。


The European Central Bank should ease monetary policy in order to weaken the value of the euro and bootstrap the periphery’s growth.	欧洲央行应当放松货币政策，以便引导欧元贬值和周边地区的经济恢复。


And Germany should cut taxes temporarily – rather than raising taxes, as planned – in order to increase disposable income and stimulate German demand for the periphery’s goods and services.	而德国应当临时减税——而不是像计划中那样增税——以便增加可支配收入并刺激德国对周边地区商品和服务的需求。


Alas, neither of the two biggest players in the euro zone is pursuing policies consistent with restoring sustained growth in the euro zone’s periphery.	唉，欧元区的两个大国都没有实行与恢复欧元区周边国家可持续增长相适应的政策。


The ECB’s monetary policy is too tight; and Germany is front-loading fiscal austerity.	欧洲央行的货币政策过紧，而德国则提前推行财政紧缩政策。


Thus, the periphery is destined to a destructive deflationary and recessionary adjustment that will exacerbate the risks of recession, insolvency, eventual defaults and, possibly, exit from the euro.	这样，周边地区注定难逃破坏性通货紧缩和衰退性调整的厄运，导致经济衰退、破产、拖欠和欧元退出的风险进一步加大。


In the United Kingdom, the new government gave several reasons for front-loading fiscal consolidation.	在英国，新政府提出了提前进行财政整顿的几点理由。 不执行早期紧缩政策可能引起债券义和团的注意；


The bond vigilantes might have woken up if early austerity was not implemented; the deficit was very large and the public sector bloated; and it is always politically easier to implement tough measures early in an administration, when popular support is still high and the next election is far off.	公共部门臃肿、赤字数额庞大； 而且在执政早期推行强硬政策在政治上相对容易，因为此时公众支持度相对较高，距离下一次选举时间也相对充足。


Certainly, the UK was playing with fiscal fire and needed some commitment to earlier austerity.	当然，英国在财政政策领域玩火，需要采取某些早期的紧缩政策。


But phasing in austerity more gradually, and thus back-loading the adjustment, would have posed less risk to the economy’s anemic recovery while maintaining a credible commitment to fiscal consolidation.	但逐步实施紧缩政策能够延后调整给当前脆弱的经济复苏所造成��威胁，同时也保持对财政整顿政策的合理关注。


Instead, the government could well end up with no plan B in case plan A – massively front-loaded austerity – leads to a double-dip recession.	相反，政府完全可能在A计划——大幅提前的紧缩计划导致第二次衰退时根本没有B计划可用。


In short, an optimal path of fiscal austerity would, in most countries, imply a back-loaded but credible commitment to medium-term consolidation, together with short-term additional stimulus when necessary and allowed by market conditions, thereby avoiding the prospect of a deflationary and recessionary spiral.	简言之，在多数国家，财政紧缩的最佳方法指的是延后采取但却能有效坚持的中期整顿政策，在必要及市场条件允许时结合短期的额外刺激，并以此来避免陷入通货紧缩和衰退的循环之中。


Unfortunately, the main advanced economies are following a divergent path – which, in some cases, will lead them in the opposite direction in 2011.	不幸的是，主要发达经济体正在背离这种方法，而这在某些情况下，会导致他们在2011年与想要达到的目标南辕北辙。


As a result, the risks of debt deflation and eventual disorderly sovereign and private-sector defaults are rising.	结果是债务紧缩和最终主权国家和私有部门拖欠债务的风险正在升高。


Europe’s Fiscal Wormhole	欧洲的财政虫洞


BRUSSELS – The International Monetary Fund now estimates a 30% risk of deflation in the eurozone, and growth figures within the monetary union continue to disappoint.	布鲁塞尔—国际货币基金组织（IMF）现在估计欧元区通缩的风险为30%，而该货币联盟内部增长数字也依然令人失望。


But policymakers seem trapped in a cat’s cradle of economic, political, and legal constraints that is preventing effective action.	但决策者似乎沉迷于经济、政治和法律约束的翻线游戏，无法做出有效的行动。


The fulfillment of policy rules appears to be impossible without growth, but growth appears to be impossible without breaking the rules.	要想满足政策规则，就必须有增长，而不打破规则，增长就无从实现。


German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is politically committed to outdoing his country’s tough domestic fiscal framework to secure what he calls a “black zero” budget.	德国财政部长朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schäuble）做出了政治承诺，要比德国严格的本国财政框架做得更好，以确保他所谓的“正零”（black zero）预算。


The French government is working to regain credibility on reform promises made in exchange for delays on fiscal adjustment, and Italy, with one of the highest debt burdens in the eurozone, has little room to use fiscal policy.	法国政府正致力于重新赢得改革承诺信誉，以换取推迟财政调整； 而身为欧元区债务负担最重国家之一的意大利已无多少财政政策空间。


Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is constrained by doubts about the legality of its “outright monetary transactions” (OMT) scheme – sovereign-bond purchases that could result in a redistributive fiscal policy.	与此同时，欧洲中央银行的“直接货币交易”（OMT，可能导致再分配财政政策的主权债券购买操作）饱受合法性质疑。


With all of the rules pointing toward recession, how can Europe boost recovery?	所有规则都指向衰退，那么欧洲如何提振复苏呢？


A two-year €400 billion ($510 billion) public-investment program, financed with European Investment Bank bonds, would be the best way to overcome Europe’s current impasse.	由欧洲投资银行（European Investment Bank）债券提供资金的两年期4,000亿欧元公共投资计划将是欧洲克服当前困局的最好办法。


Borrowing by the EIB has no implications in terms of European fiscal rules.	欧洲投行的借款不会影响欧洲财政规则。


It is recorded neither as new debt nor as a deficit for any of the member states, which means that new government spending could be funded without affecting national fiscal performance.	它既不会被记为新债，也不会成为任何一个成员国的赤字，这意味着新政府支出可以在不影响国家财政表现的条件下筹资。


Thus, some of the investment spending currently planned at the national level could be financed via European borrowing to relieve national budgets.	因此，一些目前属国家层面的投资支出计划可以通过欧洲借款融资以缓和国民预算。


Such an indirect way of dealing with strict rules would also be easier than starting long and wearying negotiations on changes to the fiscal framework.	这一应对严格规则的间接办法也比开启关于改变财政框架的费时费力的谈判更加容易。


The EIB is worried that such a scheme could come at the cost of its triple-A rating.	欧洲投行担心这一方法会影响到其AAA评级。


Indeed, though it can currently borrow at 1.6% on a long maturity, it has used its recent capital-raising exercise to reduce leverage rather than substantially increase its loan portfolio, as would be warranted at a time of retrenchment in private lending.	事实上，尽管目前欧洲投行可以以1. 6%的利率借到长期贷款，但其最新资本筹集活动都被用于降低杠杆而不是持续扩大其贷款组合，而在私人借贷大收缩的时期，应该用于后者才对。


In any case, a rating change would hardly affect funding costs in the current low-yield environment, as lower-rated sovereigns have demonstrated.	无论如何，在当前的低收益率环境中，评级变化不会影响融资成本，低评级主权债务已经证明了这一点。


In addition, the ECB could purchase EIB bonds on secondary markets, which would help to keep funding costs low – or even reduce them.	此外，欧洲央行可以在二级市场上购买欧洲投行债券，这将有助于维持甚至削减低融资成本。


More important, purchases of EIB bonds would enable the ECB to undertake quantitative easing without triggering the degree of controversy implied by intervening in 18 separate sovereign-bond markets, where concerns that ECB purchases would affect the relative pricing of sovereigns are very real.	更重要的是，购买欧洲投行债券能让欧洲央行开启量化宽松而不触发干预18个独立主权债务市场所可能引起的争议——有许多人担心欧洲央行的购买操作会影响主权债券的相对价格。


Already, €200 billion of EIB bonds are available.	目前存在2,000亿欧元欧洲投行债券。


Adding €400 billion would increase the pool substantially.	增加4,000亿欧元将极大地扩大欧洲投行债券基数。


Together with asset-backed securities, covered bonds, and corporate bonds, €1 trillion of assets – the threshold widely thought to make quantitative easing by the ECB credible – would be available for purchase.	再加上资产支持证券、可转换债券和公司债券，将有1万亿欧元的资产可以购买——这也是广泛认为能使欧洲央行量化宽松可信的阈值。


A central question, of course, concerns the type of government spending that should qualify as investment spending, and which European investment projects should be supported.	当然，一个核心问题是那些政府支出应该归为投资支出，以及那些欧洲投资项目应该得到支持。


It will be impossible to define new and sensible European projects worth €200 billion per year.	每年都找出2,000亿欧元的明智的欧洲新投资项目很难。


Common projects such as the European energy union will need more time to be precisely defined.	共同工程——如欧洲能源联盟——需要更长时间才能准确定义。


As a result, the bulk of investment now will have to come from national policymakers.	因此，如今大部分投资必然来自国家决策者。


In part, this means that existing infrastructure projects that are supposed to be financed from national budgets could be funded by the EIB.	从某种程度上说，这意味着应由国家预算融资的现有基础设施项目可以由欧洲投行融资。


By removing some of the burden from national budgets, the current decline in public investment could be reversed.	通过移除一些国民预算负担，当前的公共投资下降之势可以扭转。


Some of the new resources could also be used to allow for budget consolidation in France without pro-cyclical cuts.	法国也可以利用一些新资源进行预算整合而不采取顺周期削减。


France could get this helping hand in complying with the fiscal rules in exchange for serious and necessary structural reforms, as could Italy, where EIB-funded bonds would provide a much-needed growth stimulus without new government commitments.	法国可以通过遵守财政规则获得援手，作为交换，实施必要的严肃的结构改革。 意大利也是如此，欧洲投行融资的债券将提供急需的增长刺激而不增加政府负担。


In Germany, the freed-up resources could be used to accelerate existing investment projects while still meeting its black-zero pledge.	在德国，释放的资源可用于加快现有投资项目，同时仍能满足其正零承诺。


Similar arrangements could be found for the other eurozone countries.	类似的安排也可以在其他欧元区国家实行。


To prevent the misuse of money, the European Commission should vet all national investment projects.	为了防止资金滥用，欧盟委员会应该审核所有国家投资项目。


More broadly, the program would be an important step toward establishing the eurozone’s missing fiscal union.	更广泛地说，该计划将成为迈向建立欧元区所梦想的财政联盟的重要一步。


That goal will be reached more quickly once the benefits of achieving it are apparent to all.	如果实现它的好处更加显而易见，这一目标也能更快对达到。


A Balance-Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy	财政政策的资产负债表方法


WASHINGTON, DC – Everyone is talking about debt, citing huge nominal figures that strongly affect public-policy debates worldwide.	华盛顿—所有人都在谈论债务，援引着强烈影响全球公共政策争论的巨大的名义数字。


But all debt is not created equal.	但并非所有的债务都生而平等。


For starters, when it comes to public debt, there is a big difference between the gross and net figures.	首先，对于公共债务，总值和净值区别很大。


While Japan’s gross public debt, for example, is a massive 246% of GDP, the net figure, accounting for intra-government debts, is 127% of GDP.	比如，日本的总公共债务达到了GDP的246%，但代表政府内债务的净债务为GDP的127%。


Moreover, what should really matter about a country’s public-debt burden is the expected annual cost of servicing it.	此外，真正影响一国公债负担的是预期年债务维持成本。


As Daniel Gros recently pointed out, debt that can be rolled over indefinitely at zero interest rates is no debt at all.	丹尼尔·格罗斯（Daniel Gros）最近指出，可以以零利率无限展期的债务根本就不是债务。


This is an extreme example; but the closer a fixed interest rate gets to zero, and the longer the maturity becomes, the lower the burden of the stock of debt.	这是一个极端的例子； 但固定利率越接近于零、期限越长，债务存量的负担也就越轻。


Although Greece’s public debt amounts to about 175% of GDP, low interest rates – which are fixed for a large proportion of it – and long maturities mean that it may be more manageable than it seems.	尽管希腊公共债务高达GDP的175%左右，但低利率——大部分债务的利率都是固定的——和长期限意味着希腊债务比看上去更容易管理。


Greece’s ratio of public-debt service to GDP is similar to that of Portugal, or even Italy.	希腊公共债务付息成本与GDP之比接近于葡萄牙甚至意大利。


Indeed, that is why the latest deal with Greece, which entails even more bailout funds, could work, as long as the country is accorded the debt reprofiling that it needs to reverse the decline of its GDP, reduces its primary surpluses, and pursues balance-sheet-strengthening reforms.	事实上，正因如此，大大增加了援助资金的最新的希腊协议能够起作用，只要希腊能获得它所需要的债务重新安排以扭转GDP下降之势、降低其初级盈余并采取强化资产负债表的改革。


Such considerations underscore why it is a mistake to focus only on annual budgets, without adequate regard for the long-term balance-sheet implications of how borrowed money is used.	这些观点说明了为何只关注年度预算而不充分考虑贷款使用的长期资产负债表影响是一个错误。


This narrow, short-term focus differs from the approach taken for publicly traded companies, for which the strength of the balance sheet and the economy’s potential are emphasized, alongside annual income statements.	这一狭隘、短期的关注点与上市公司所采取的方法是不同的，上市公司强调资产负债表的强劲程度和经济的潜力，以及年度利润表。


Imagine, for example, that Germany borrows at a 1% fixed real interest rate with a ten-year maturity and invests the proceeds in repairing domestic transport infrastructure.	比如，考虑德国以1%的固定实际利率借入十年期贷款投资于修补国内交通基础设施。


These investments bring a modest real financial rate of return of 4% through fees, tolls, and, in the longer run, tax revenues (stemming from an increase in GDP).	这些投资通过通行费、养路费以及长期税收收入（来自GDP的增加）产生4%的温和的实际财务回报率。


Such investments would directly strengthen Germany’s public-sector balance sheet.	这些投资将直接强化德国的公共部门资产负债表。


This does not even take into account social returns, accrued through reduced traffic congestion and cleaner air.	这还没有将社会回报（来自交通拥堵情况的减少和空气质量的提高）计算在内。


Beyond infrastructure, spending to improve education – specifically to ensure that the next generation receives the skills they need to contribute to the twenty-first-century economy – would also result in faster GDP growth. And it, too, would likely yield significant social returns.	除了基础设施，改善教育的支出——具体来说，确保下一代能获得需要的技能为二十一世纪经济做出贡献的支出——也将推动GDP更快增长，并且也有望带来可观的社会回报。


For governments with access to today’s extremely low – and often negative – real interest rates, it may seem like a no-brainer to borrow and invest more in projects with long-term benefits.	如果政府能够获得今天的极低（并且常常为负）的实际利率，借钱投资更多的能带来长期收益的项目似乎是不言自明的选择。


Doing so would strengthen their balance sheets, crowd in the private sector, and generate employment.	这样做能强化它们的资产负债表，引来私人部门，并增加就业。


But balance-sheet calculations are rarely at the center of political debate.	但资产负债表算术很少成为政治争论的焦点。


To be sure, some progress is being made toward bringing longer-term considerations into annual budget rules.	平心而论，在将长期考虑引入年度预算规则方面正在取得一些进展。


Bodies like the European Commission increasingly distinguish between the structural and cyclical components of a budget deficit, and thus consider potential output, which increases with investment, in their calculations.	欧盟委员会等机构开始日益区分预算赤字的结构性和周期性成分，从而在计算中考虑了随投资增长而增长的潜在产出。


But this is only a small step in the right direction.	但这只是朝向正确方向的一小步。


For a long-term balance-sheet approach to gain traction, politicians will have to drop the ideological biases that are distorting fiscal policy.	长期资产负债表方法要想获得长期动力，政客们必须抛弃扭曲财政政策的意识形态偏见。


Proponents of austerity currently use nominal debt figures to scare voters, even in countries with record-low interest rates and large private-sector profits that are not being channeled toward investment.	如今，紧缩支持者用名义债务数字恐吓选民，即使在利率创出历史新低、大量私人部门利润没有被引导进入投资领域的国家也是如此。


To counter their arguments, opinion-makers should emphasize the expected long-term returns on incremental public investment, not with ideological arguments, but with concrete examples from various sectors in the recent past that have had reasonably good rate of returns.	为了反驳这样的观点，民意领袖应该强调公共投资增量的预期长期回报，不是用意识形态观点来强调，而是用最近表现出相当优秀的回报率的不同部门作为例证来强调。


Of course, as the economist Charles Wyplosz has explained, debt sustainability analysis is inherently uncertain.	当然，查尔斯·维普罗兹（Charles Wyplosz）等经济学家解释道，债务可持续性分析具有内在不确定性。


But some needs can reasonably be anticipated.	但一些需求可以合理地预计到。


Amid massive unmet demand for new climate-compatible infrastructure and for workers with modern skillsets, any semi-competent government should be able to demonstrate the likelihood of significant real returns on incremental investment.	对于与气候相容的新基础设施还有大量��求没有得到满足，对于拥有现代技能的工人也是如此，在这样的背景下，任何有一些胜任能力的政府都应该能够证明增量投资有可能实现可观的实际回报。


In many countries, one could realistically expect a 4% average return on at least one percentage point of GDP worth of incremental investment.	在许多国家，你可以务实地预期相当于GDP的一个百分点的增量投资可以带来4%的平均回报。


If the marginal real interest rate is 1%, an increase in public investment would actually reduce future indebtedness.	如果边际实际利率为1%，那么公共投资的增加实际上可以减少未来债务负担。


Of course, it is possible for too large of an increase to put pressure on real interest rates, thereby crowding out potential private investment.	当然，有可能增量太大以至于对实际利率产生压力，从而挤出潜在私人投资。


If there is significant exchange-rate risk, such as in non-reserve currency countries, that, too, should be taken into account.	如果存在重大汇率风险，比如对于非储备货币国家，那么这一点也应该考虑在内。


Current fiscal-policy debates should not focus on simplistic headline numbers.	当前的财政政策争论不应该聚焦于最简单的标题数字。


To strengthen public accounts, both conservatives and progressives should start promoting a long-term balance-sheet-oriented approach to policymaking, ensuring that the debates are based on relevant data.	要强化公共账户，保守派和进步派都应该从推进决策的长期资产负债表导向方法开始，并确保争论以重要数据为基础。


Otherwise, the wrong policies – and, with them, anemic GDP growth and sluggish job creation – will continue to prevail.	否则的话，错误的政策——它们将导致GDP长期萎靡和就业创造停滞——将继续盛行。


Fishy Conservation Efforts	鱼类保护工作


NAIROBI – If you happen to be a salamander known as the Iranian Kaiser spotted newt, chances are that things may be looking up.	内罗毕——如果你凑巧是一只由伊朗恺撒发现的蝾螈，那么你今后的生活状况有可能会得到改善。


Governments at the recent meeting in Doha of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) voted for a trade ban on Iranian Kaisers, alongside tougher protection for a host of land-living creatures.	在不久前多哈召开的濒危物种国际贸易公约（CITES）会议上，各国政府投票禁止伊朗恺撒蝾螈贸易，对其他多种陆生生物的严格保护措施也同时获得通过。


But if you are a blue-fin tuna of the western Atlantic stock, your mood will be decidedly more pessimistic.	但如果你不巧是一条西大西洋蓝鳍金枪鱼，你的情绪肯定更加悲观。


It is a similar story for several species of shark, including the oceanic white-tip, scalloped hammerhead, and the great and spiny dogfish.	远洋白鳍鲨、公子鲨和刺狗鲨等几个鲨鱼物种的情况也基本相似。


Despite strong scientific evidence showing sharp declines in the populations of all three, every proposal for tougher trade controls on these marine species – along with more than 30 species of coral – failed to secure the necessary two-thirds majority.	尽管有过硬的科学证据显示上述三个物种的种群数量急剧下降，但申请对这些海洋物种采取更严厉贸易管制措施的提案却未能获得通过所需的三分之二投票，同样未获通过实行管制措施的还有30多种珊瑚。


In the case of the western Atlantic stock of blue-fin tuna, several countries argued that the existing management body – the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) – is best placed to manage the stock.	在讨论西大西洋蓝鳍金枪鱼的案例时，若干国家提出由现在的管理机构——即国际大西洋鲔类资源保护委员会（ICCAT）实施管理最为有效。


Others who proposed tougher trade rules were not convinced – and with good reason.	但提议制定严格贸易规则的与会者并不认同他们的观点，而且他们有充足的理由。


Stocks of this highly prized fish have declined by up to 80% since the dawn of industrialized fishing, and this has been on ICCAT’s watch.	从工业化捕捞的大幕开启后，这种高价金枪鱼的种群数量已经在国际大西洋鲔类资源保护委员会的监管下下降了80%之多。


In the case of sharks and rays, a recent survey indicates that close to one-third of the 64 ocean-living species are on the verge of extinction.	至于鲨鱼和鳐鱼，最近一项调查结果显示相关64种海洋生物中的近三分之一都频临灭绝。


Their decline is linked to over-exploitation of other once-common species.	它们种群数量的下降与对曾经常见物种的过度捕捞息息相关。


For example, spiny dogfish is partly substituting for cod in many European fish-and-chip shops.	比如刺狗鲨正在部分替代鳕鱼被端上许多欧洲鱼和薯条店的餐桌。


Sharks, too, are suffering from rapidly rising demand for shark-fin soup, which is considered a delicacy in many parts of Asia.	而鲨鱼也成为对鱼翅汤快速增长需求的牺牲品，鱼翅在亚洲许多国家被人们视为美味佳肴。


But saving endangered and near-endangered species is not just about conservation; it is also about defending millions of people’s livelihoods, which depend on healthy oceans.	但拯救濒危和近乎濒危物种不仅是单纯的保护问题，同时也是对成百上千万依赖健康海洋环境为生的人们生计的保护。


Today’s marine environment is truly under siege.	如今的海洋环境的确已经危机四伏。


When the explorer John Cabot sailed off the coast of Newfoundland more than 500 years ago, vast shoals of cod slowed down his ships; crews could lower buckets over the side and fill them with fish.	当探险家约翰·卡博特500年前驶离纽芬兰海岸的时候，大群的鳕鱼减缓了船只行驶的速度； 船员们可以从船边放下水桶，拎起满满一桶鳕鱼。


By 1992, however, over-fishing had forced the total closure of this once highly productive fishery, and, despite all efforts, Newfoundland’s Grand Banks has never recovered.	可是到1992年，过度捕捞却使曾经高产的捕鱼业被彻底关闭，而且尽管采取了种种措施，但纽芬兰大浅滩却再也未能恢复到从前的盛况。


Similarly, over-fishing of sharks in the Caribbean has triggered a rise in octopus and a drastic drop in spiny lobsters and scallops – two major sources of revenue for neighboring coastal communities.	同样，加勒比海过度捕捞鲨鱼造成章鱼数量急剧上升、而临近沿海居民赖以为生的主要收入来源多刺龙虾和扇贝的数量却急剧下降。


The outcome at CITES has brought into sharp relief increasing tensions between industrial and environmental interests, as if these were diametrically opposed.	濒危物种国际贸易公约会议的结果缓解了行业与环境利益间越来越尖锐的矛盾，似乎这两种利益是完全对立的。


Surely a twenty-first-century fisherman does not want to see the basis of his or her living degraded and destroyed, nor does a modern conservationist want to ring-fence the environment and stop people from making a living.	一位21世纪的渔民肯定不愿看到自己的生存基础遭到削弱和破坏，而另一方面现代环保主义者也不愿意将环境圈起来，不让人们赖以维持生活。


So if governments want existing agreements to rule the waves, they must start acting on the sobering science and real-world numbers.	因此如果政府希望现有协议能够发挥效力，那么必需就发人深省的科学和现实数据采取行动。


For example, with respect to sharks, existing sanctions against “finning” under Regional Fisheries Management Organizations should be enforced, backed up by an independent system of on-board observers to ensure that trawlers comply.	比方说在鲨鱼问题上，应该执行区域渔业管理组织禁止“取翅”的现有禁令，并建立独立的船上观察员制度，确保禁令内容在拖网渔船上得以遵守。


Moreover, an international action plan for sharks, including a ceiling on catches, should be created.	此外，还应制定与鲨鱼有关的国际行动计划，其中包括限制捕捞数量。


And proper fishing methods that catch only target species should be used, with others caught accidentally as so-called by-catch returned to the sea alive.	还应当采用恰当的捕鱼方式，只捕捞目标鱼类，而将其他偶然捕获的副产品活着放回海中。


Where fisheries agreements are not succeeding, conservation agreements must be tried and applied.	如果捕捞协议作用不明显，则必需尝试保护协议的作用。


After all, these are not competing regulatory regimes, but complimentary ones.	归根结底这两种管理制度的关系不是相互对立、而是相互补充。


In the case of the western Atlantic blue-fin tuna, the ball is now firmly back in ICCAT’s court.	在西大西洋蓝鳍金枪鱼金枪鱼的问题上，决定权已经完全回到国际大西洋鲔类资源保护委员会手中。


Governments that support the ICCAT option must now prove that it is up to the job.	支持国际大西洋鲔类资源保护委员会的政府现在必需证明它能完成这项任务。


They have three years to do so, before CITES next meets in Thailand.	在下一次濒危物种国际贸易公约会议召开之前，他们有三年时间证明自己的选择。


If there is no dramatic action and improvement, governments should instead give CITES, as a well established conservation and trade agreement, a chance to reverse the species’ current plight.	如果没有明显的行动和改善，政府应当给濒危物种国际贸易公约一个机会，让这家享有盛誉的保护和贸易条约机构来改变海洋物种目前的困境。


Blue-fin tuna is heading for commercial, if not outright, extinction, as are a host of other economically and ecologically important marine species.	和其他一系列具有经济和生态意义的海洋生物一样，蓝鳍金枪鱼正逐渐走向商业、抑或是彻底的消亡。


They are swimming in the last-chance lagoon.	它们正游弋在最后一片泻湖中。


But so, too, could be the organizations that have presided over a breathtaking collapse of so many fisheries and left a once-bountiful marine environment – and the lives and livelihoods of many fishermen – damaged and degraded in their wake.	但眼睁睁看着这么多鱼类在自己手中令人震惊地陷于崩溃，让曾经丰饶的海洋环境和众多渔民的生活生计在自己面前受到削弱和破坏的管理机构同样可能无法摆脱厄运。


China’s Rebalancing Act	中国的再平衡举动


BEIJING – China’s 12th Five-Year Plan calls for a shift in the country’s economic model from export-led growth toward greater reliance on domestic demand, particularly household consumption.	发自北京——中国的“十二五”计划要求将本国的经济模式从出口带动型增长向内需型转变，尤其将重点放在居民消费方面。


Since the Plan’s introduction, China’s current-account surplus as a share of GDP has indeed fallen.	自该计划发布以来，中国的经常账户盈余占GDP的比例确实有所下降。


But does that mean that China’s adjustment is on track?	但这是否表明中国的调整已经走上了正轨呢？


According to the IMF, the fall in China’s current-account surplus/GDP ratio has largely been the result of very high levels of investment, a weak global environment, and an increase in prices for commodity imports that has outpaced the rise in prices for Chinese manufactured goods.	世界货币基金组织（IMF）的报告指出，中国经常账户盈余与GDP比率的下降在很大程度上是源自极高的投资水平，全球经济不振以及超过中国制造商品价格上涨速度的大宗货物出口价格上涨。


So the fall in China’s external surplus/GDP ratio does not represent economic “rebalancing”; on the contrary, the Fund predicts that the ratio will rebound in 2013 and approach its pre-crisis level thereafter.	因此，中国外部盈余与GDP比率的下降并不代表经济的“再平衡”； 相反，IMF预计该比率将在2013年反弹并随后达到危机前水平。


The IMF’s explanation of the recent fall in China’s current-account surplus/GDP ratio is broadly correct.	IMF对最近中国经常账户盈余与GDP比率下降的解读大体上是正确的。


Experience suggests that China’s external position is highly sensitive to global conditions, with the surplus/GDP ratio rising during boom times for the world economy and falling during slumps.	经验表明，中国的外部头寸极易受到全球经济状况的影响，中国的外部盈余对GDP比率在全球经济繁荣时期就会上升，在萧条时期则下跌。


Europe’s malaise has hit China’s exports badly, and undoubtedly is the most important factor underlying the current decline in the ratio.	欧洲经历的危机严重打击了中国出口，而这无疑是最近比率下降背后的最重要原因。


By definition, without a change in the saving gap, there will be no change in the trade surplus, and vice versa.	根据定义，储蓄缺口无变动则贸易盈余无变动，反之亦然。


Furthermore, the saving gap and the trade balance interact with each other constantly, making them always equal.	此外，储蓄缺口与贸易平衡时时刻刻都在相互影响，不断保持两者持平。


In response to the global financial crisis in 2008, China introduced a RMB4 trillion ($634 billion) stimulus package.	为应对2008年的全球金融危机，中国推出了总额4万亿元人民币（约合6340亿美元）的经济刺激方案。


While the increase in investment reduced the saving/GDP ratio, the resulting increase in imports lowered the trade surplus/GDP ratio. As a result, China’s external surplus/GDP ratio fell significantly in 2009.	投资增加使储蓄对GDP比率下降，随之带来的进口增长降低了贸易盈余对GDP比率，结果中国2009年的外部盈余对GDP比率大幅下滑。


In 2010, China’s government adjusted its economic policy.	中国政府在2010年调整了经济政策。


In order to control inflation and real-estate bubbles, the central bank tightened monetary policy and the government refrained from another round of fiscal stimulus.	为遏制通货膨胀和房地产泡沫，中央银行的货币政策有所收紧，政府也回避了再次使用财政刺激政策。


China’s real-estate investment accounted for 10% of GDP, and slower investment growth in the sector necessarily reduces import demand, directly and indirectly.	由于中国房地产投资占了GDP的10%，该行业投资增长放缓必然会直接或间接地减少进口需求。


But, because the fall in import growth had yet to turn into a rout, while China’s exports to Europe plummeted, China’s current-account surplus fell further in GDP terms in 2011.	然而由于进口增长下滑并未引发混乱，当中国对欧出口骤降之时，中国2011年的以GDP计算的经常账户盈余进一步下跌。


This situation is likely to change in 2012.	此状况有可能在2012年有所改变。


The negative impact of the fall in real-estate investment since 2010 has been deeper and longer than expected; indeed, almost all categories of imports that fell by 10% or more in August were related to real-estate investment.	2010年以来房地产投资减少带来的负面影响比预期深远。 事实的确如此，几乎所有在8月下跌超过10%的各类进口项目都与房地产投资有关。


As a result, it is possible that the fall in investment growth will reverse the declining external surplus/GDP ratio in 2012, unless the global economy deteriorates further and/or the Chinese government launches a new stimulus package.	因此，投资增长下滑可能会在2012年扭转下跌的外部盈余对GDP比率，要想此情况不发生，除非全球经济进一步恶化同时/或者中国政府采取新一轮刺激方案。


Perhaps most important, China must now export more manufactured goods to finance imports of energy and mineral products.	或许最重要的是中国现在必须出口更多中国制造来进口能源与矿石产品。


The worsening terms of trade have been a major factor contributing to the decline in the current-account surplus in recent years.	贸易条件恶化是近几年经常账户盈余下跌的主要原因。


Nevertheless, despite the merits of its analysis, the IMF underestimates China’s progress in rebalancing.	然而，IMF的分析虽有可取之处，但该组织低估了中国在经济再平衡上的进展。


In my view, China’s rebalancing is more genuine – and more fundamental – than the Fund recognizes, and the prediction of an eventual rebound in China’s external surplus/GDP ratio will most likely turn out to be wrong.	依我来看，中国的再平衡进程比IMF所理解的更实在且更基础，中国外部盈余对GDP比率将最终反弹的预测也很可能是错误的。


First, the roughly 30% real exchange-rate appreciation since 2005 must have had a serious impact on exporters, reflected in the bankruptcy – as well as the upgrading – of many enterprises in coastal areas.	首先，自2005年以来约30%的实际汇率升值率无疑对出口商造成了严重影响，沿海城市很多企业破��（或是升级）的情况都反映了这点。


Though the market shares of Chinese exports seem to have held up quite well, this is attributable to price-cutting in foreign markets, which is not sustainable.	尽管中国出口商品的市场份额似乎保持得不错，但其原因——在外国市场的降价行动——并没有可持续性。


Over time, real exchange-rate appreciation will cause a shift in expenditure, making China’s rebalancing more apparent.	久而久之，实际汇率升值会使支出发生转变，让中国的经济再平衡更加明显。


Second, China’s wage levels are rising rapidly.	第二，中国的工资水平正在飞速上升。


According to the 12th Five-Year Plan, the minimum wage should grow by 13% per year.	根据“十二五”计划，最低工资的年增长率为13%。


Together with real appreciation, the increase in labor costs is bound to weaken the competitiveness of China’s labor-intensive export sector, which will be reflected in the trade balance more clearly in the coming years.	工资上涨与实际汇率增长一起将必然削弱中国在劳动密集型出口领域的竞争力，而这在未来几年内将更清晰地体现在贸易平衡上。


Third, China has made significant progress in building its social-security system.	第三，中国的社保体系建设取得了重大进步。


The number of people covered by basic old-age insurance, unemployment insurance, workers’ compensation, and maternity insurance has risen substantially.	基本养老保险，失业保险，工伤保险和生育保险所覆盖人口数大幅上涨。


Moreover, universal medical insurance is emerging, and a comprehensive system for providing aid to students from poor families has been established.	此外，全国统一医疗保险正在起步，对贫困家庭学生提供援助的完整体系也已建成。


As a result, the motivation for precautionary saving has been weakened somewhat, while some researchers have found statistical evidence that the consumption rate is rising, which is supported by China’s emergence as the world’s fourth-largest importer of luxury goods.	因此，人们预防性储蓄的动机有所减弱，一些研究者同时也从统计数据中发现消费率在上升，原因是中国已经崛起为全球第四大奢侈品进口国。


Finally, the worsening of China’s terms of trade will play an even more fundamental role in reducing its trade surplus in the future.	最后，中国贸易条件恶化在未来降低贸易盈余上将扮演一个更基本的角色。


Given weak demand, which may be prolonged, Chinese exporters must accept increasingly thin profit margins to maintain market share.	鉴于出口需求疲软且可能长期持续，中国出口商必须接受不断下降的利润以保持市场份额。


However, China’s large size and low per capita income and capital stock imply continued rapid growth in its demand for commodities.	然而，中国辽阔的面积，较低的人均收入和股本也意味着中国对大宗商品的需求会持续快速增长。


Thanks to supply constraints, China’s import bill for commodities and metals is likely to offset its processing-trade surplus in the near future.	得益于供应短缺，中国的大宗商品和金属进口金额在不远的将来有可能会抵消其加工贸易盈余。


In short, as long as China’s government is not so unnerved by the slowdown in output growth that it changes its current policy stance, the current-account surplus is more likely to continue to fall relative to GDP than it is to rebound in 2013 and thereafter.	简言之，只要中国政府不为产出增长放缓而匆忙改变当前的政策立场，其经常账户盈余在2013年及以后将更有可能相对GDP继续下跌，而不是反弹。


In fact, such an outcome is not only likely, but also desirable.	事实上，这种结果不光是有可能的，也是令人满意的。


After all, faced with “infinite quantitative easing,” being a large net creditor means being in the worst position in today’s global economy.	毕竟，面对“无穷无尽的量化宽松”，作为一个纯债权大国意味着在当今全球经济中处于最不利的位置。


Returning to Investment	回归投资


GENEVA – At the G20 summit last month in Hangzhou, China, world leaders outlined an ambitious plan for a “new era of global growth.” But they left out a key ingredient: fixing the investment climate.	发自日内瓦——在上个月中国杭州G20峰会上，世界各国领导人提出了一个雄心勃勃的“全球经济增长新纪元”计划，但该计划唯独忽略了一个关键因素：要将与之相对应的投资气氛扭转过来。


Conventional wisdom holds that, through efficient financial markets, household savings will flow to companies that can best put the money to productive use.	传统观点认为，通过高效的金融市场，居民储蓄将会流向那些资金产能转化效率最高的公司。


But in many developing countries, easier access to finance – owing to unrestricted cross-border capital flows and financial-market deregulation – still has not led to more financing for long-term investments, particularly in manufacturing.	但是在许多发展中国家，由于不受限制的跨界资本流动和金融市场放松管制，融资变得更加容易，但这些资金却未能流入各类长期性投资领域，特别是制造业。


Investment decisions depend on a variety of complex factors and contingencies, and a mix of public and private finance is crucial for bringing new projects to fruition.	投资决策取决于多种复杂因素和突发事件，而公共和私人资金的组合是新项目取得成果的关键。


In East Asia, which has experienced rapid growth and development in recent years, policymakers have not only allowed, but encouraged, higher corporate profits, so long as they are channeled into productive investments.	在近年来经历了快速增长和发展的东亚地区，政策制定者不仅允许，甚至鼓励企业赚取更高利润，只要后者能转向生产性投资。


As a result, as much as four-fifths of large East Asian companies’ investment spending is funded from retained earnings, while publicly owned financial institutions have helped maintain the pace of investment-led growth.	其结果是大型东亚企业用于投资支出的资金中有约五分之四都是从自有留存收益中提取，而公有金融机构则帮助保持投资拉动型增长的步伐。


An imbalance between profits and investment is a major reason for today’s tepid growth in developed and developing countries alike; unless it is addressed, the result could be a wider crisis of legitimacy for corporate governance and economic management.	利润和投资之间的不对等是当今发达国家和发展中国家的增长陷入僵局的重要原因之一;除非这一问题得以解决，否则将有可能为公司治理和经济管理带来更广泛的合法性危机。


In developed economies, corporate profitability has been steadily rising, partly owing to “shareholder-primacy” strategies that focus on short-term decision-making, cost-cutting measures, and other forms of financial engineering encouraged by institutional investors.	在发达经济体中，企业的盈利能力一直在稳步上升，部分原因是侧重于“股东至上”的战略，这个战略聚焦短期决策、削减成本的措施以及机构投资者鼓励进行的其他形式的金融工程。


To varying degrees, conventional “retain-and-invest” strategies are being replaced by “downsize-and-distribute” strategies, whereby profits are spent on increased dividends, stock buybacks, and mergers and acquisitions.	在不同程度上，传统的“保留和投资”的策略正在被“缩减规模和分配”策略所替代，即利润都花在增加股息，股票回购和收购兼并上。


In developing economies, global financial flows have most visibly contributed to macroeconomic shocks that fuel economic uncertainty, which shortens corporations’ investment-planning horizon.	在发展中经济体，全球资金流动最明显的表现是造成了助长经济不确定性的宏观经济冲击，导致企业的投资规划视野缩短。


More recently, one can also see developing-economy companies pursuing the same corporate-governance strategies as firms in developed countries.	最近人们还可以看到发展中经济体企业开始追随与发达国家企业相同的公司治理战略。


Judging by non-financial firms’ balance sheets, investment-to-profit ratios decreased from 1995 to 2014, with especially steep declines in Brazil, Malaysia, South Korea, and Turkey.	从非金融企业的资产负债表来看，从1995年至2014年间投资利润比逐步下降，而巴西，马来西亚，韩国和土耳其等地的下降趋势尤其剧烈。


Large public corporations are less common in most developing economies than they are in developed economies; but for those firms that do regularly distribute dividends in developing economies, payouts to shareholders have been increasing, even when profitability has remained roughly the same.	与发达国家相比，大型上市公司在大多数发展中经济体中不太常见； 但对于那些经常��配股息的发展中国家企业，即使其盈利能力一直保持大致相同，对股东的支出却一直在增加。


Such firms are also accumulating financial assets – sometimes faster than they are accumulating corporate debt – which suggests that they lack profitable long-term investment opportunities and portfolio-investment options in liberalized financial markets.	这样的公司也积累金融资产——有时比积累企业债务更快——这表明他们缺乏有利可图的长期投资机会以及可由开放金融市场提供的投资组合选项。


It would be premature to suggest that the relationship between profits and investments has broken down in the developing world.	认定发展中国家企业的利润和投资之间已经脱钩的看法虽然言之过早。


But, as corporate profitability has risen across the board, investment trends everywhere (with the exception of China and India) have been weak, which was true even before the 2008 global financial crisis.	但随着企业盈利能力全线上升，所有地区（中国和印度除外）投资趋势却一直疲软，即使在2008年全球金融危机爆发之前也是如此。


Meanwhile, financialization continues to disrupt macroeconomic stability worldwide.	与此同时，金融化依然在全球范围内持续破坏宏观经济稳定。


For example, developed economies’ quantitative easing programs have contributed to excess liquidity – and thus to the recent corporate-debt explosion in emerging economies.	例如，发达经济体的量化宽松政策使得流动性过剩——从而引发新兴经济体近期的企业债务爆炸。


Across a sample of these economies, non-financial corporations’ dollar-denominated debt rose by 40%, on average, from 2010 to 2014; from 2007 to 2015, their debt-service ratios also soared by 40%.	我们在针对多个经济体样本的分析中发现，非金融企业在2010至2014年间以美元计价的债务平均增加达40％； 在2007至2015年期间，他们的偿债比率也飙升至40％。


These numbers suggest a systemic banking crisis in the making.	这些数字表明系统性银行危机正在酝酿之中。


Moreover, debt-fueled investment has been concentrated in highly cyclical natural-resources-based sectors that do not contribute to inclusive and sustainable growth.	此外，债务驱动的投资一直集中在周期性很强的，以自然资源为基础的行业，不利于包容性和可持续的增长。


In fact, just seven sectors – oil and gas, electricity, construction, industrial commodities, real estate, telecommunications, and mining – account for more than two-thirds of the total increase in both debt and investment.	事实上，七大行业——石油和天然气、电力、建筑、工业大宗商品、房地产、电信、矿业——占债务和投资总额增长超过三分之二。


This suggests that easy access to cheap money and debt financing have not favored the high-tech sectors that contribute the most to productivity growth.	这表明容易获取的廉价资金和债务融资并不青睐对生产率增长率贡献最高的高科技行业。


To reverse these trends, we must first reverse the trend in emerging economies toward highly financialized corporate strategies.	要扭转这种趋势首先就得扭转新兴经济体推进高度金融化企业战略的趋势。


This will require changes in corporate governance generally, and in non-financial corporations’ incentive structures, including preferential tax treatment for retained profits and equity finance, and special depreciation allowances for reinvested profits.	这将需要对公司的总体治理以及非金融性公司的激励机制进行变革，包括对留存利润和股权融资的优惠税收待遇，以及利润再投资特别折旧免税额。


Beyond corporate governance, we must restore balance to the profit-investment relationship through institutional as well as public-policy initiatives, and with proactive industrial policies.	除了公司治理，我们还必须通过机制性以公共政策性的法案和积极的产业政策来恢复利润和投资关系的平衡。


This will require reforming and deepening the banking system to ensure enough lending capacity for long-term investments, including for small- and medium-sized enterprises.	这将需要改革和深化银行体系以确保有足够的放贷能力支持长期投资，包括对小型和中型企业的支持。


As for the macroeconomic environment, governments can improve conditions through public investment, particularly in infrastructure, which will augment productivity and add to private-sector profitability.	至于宏观经济环境，政府可以通过公共投资改善条件，特别是基础设施来提高生产力和增加私人部门的盈利能力。


Lastly, the international community should vigorously pursue efforts to police tax avoidance and capital flight, both of which erode states’ revenue base.	最后，国际社会应大力打击侵蚀各国税基的避税和资本外逃。


Long-term investment in productive assets is essential to ensuring the sustained growth that developing economies need.	一言以蔽之，生产性资产的长期投资对发展中经济体获得所需的持续增长至关重要。


But they won’t achieve it by maintaining an environment that encourages short-term strategies.	但这些投资可是不会在鼓励短期战略的环境中实现的。


Fixing the Food Chain	解决粮食链问题


COPENHAGEN –  The global food system is in disarray.	    哥本哈根--全球粮食体系目前处于混乱之中。


Four years ago, a 30-year trend of decreasing food prices rapidly reversed course.	四年前，长达三十年之久的粮食价格下降趋势迅速扭转。


Grain prices have more than doubled since 2004, and prices for most other foods have increased significantly.	谷物价格从2004年以来已经翻番还多，其他大多数粮食价格也大幅度上升。


Add unsustainable management of natural resources, emerging negative effects of climate change, and sharply rising prices for fertilizers and energy, and we are faced with the most severe global food crisis since the early 1970’s.	再加上无以维系的自然资源管理、气候变化负面影响显现以及化肥和能源价格大幅攀升，我们正面临着自从二十世纪七十年代以来最为严重的全球粮食危机。


Dramatic price hikes reflect several factors: adverse weather in key food production areas, rapid increase in demand for meats and dairy products, higher oil prices, draw-downs of food stocks, greater use of food commodities for bio-fuel, and failure to invest in rural infrastructure, research and technology, and other public goods needed to facilitate agricultural growth in developing countries.	    价格大幅上扬反映出几个因素。 它们是：主要粮食生产地区气候恶劣、对肉类和奶制品需求快速提高、高油价、粮食库存下降、大量使用粮食商品用于制造生物燃料和未能在农村基础设施、研究和技术以及促进发展中国家农业进步所需要的其他公共条件上予以投入。


The skyrocketing cost of food has resulted in more starvation among the poor, reduced purchasing power among the non-poor, and food riots in more than 30 countries. 	粮食成本巨幅上升已经在贫穷人口中造成更大的饥荒，降低了非贫穷人口的购买力以及三十多个国家中的因粮食引发的骚乱。


The key lesson to learn is that insufficient investment in science and inappropriate government policies lead to food crises.	    这里主要的教训是，在科技上投资不足以及政府政策失当导致危机。


To avoid these shortcomings in the future, the world’s farmers and food processors must be helped to produce more food to meet increasing demand fueled by growth in world population and incomes.	未来避免这些问题，必须帮助全球的农民和粮食加工厂商生产更多的粮食来满足由于世界人口和收入增加而引起的日益增长的需求。


Moreover, they must produce more with less land and water, at reasonable prices, and without damaging natural resources or worsening climate change.	而且，他们必须用更少的土地和水来生产更多的粮食，价格要合理，而且不得破坏自然资源或者恶化气候变化。


But are governments getting the message?	    但是各国政府是否理解呢？


I believe so.	我相信如此。


Hunger is not a new phenomenon, but as long as the rural poor endure it in silence, as they have for a long time, governments can comfortably ignore it.	饥饿并非新现象，但是只要农村贫困人口正如长期以来的那样得以忍受而无抗议，那么政府就可以轻松自在地加以忽视。


Food riots by urban populations, on the other hand, threaten what governments care about the most: their legitimacy.	但是在另一方面，城市人口的粮食骚乱却威胁到政府的合法性，而这是它们最为关心的。


Developing countries invest only slightly more that 0.5% of the value of their agricultural production in agricultural research.	    发展中国家投入到农业研究中的比例只是其农业产量价值的0. 5%多一点。


That is grossly inadequate.	这根本无济于事。


An increase to 2% is warranted.	需要增加到2%。


This would still be less than what high-income countries invest in agricultural research. 	即使如此，这还是低于高收入国家在农业研究上的投入。


Modern science should focus on sustainable increases in land and water productivity, management of production risks caused by droughts, floods, pests, and on mitigation and adaption to climate change.	    现代科技应当关注于土地和水生产效率的可持续提高、管理由干旱、洪水、病虫害引发的粮食生产风险以及减缓和适应气候变化。


Drought-tolerant and pest-resistant crop varieties, disease-resistant livestock, and high-yield agricultural production systems that use less water and capture nitrogen from the air are but a few examples of the kind of technologies needed.	抗干旱和病虫害的改良作物、抗病牲畜以及节水和从空气中捕捉氮气的高产农业生产体系正是所需要的技术范例。


More research is also needed to improve the nutritional quality of staple foods by fortifying them with iron, vitamin A, and zinc to help solve widespread micronutrient deficiencies.	还需要更多的研究通过向主食中添加铁、维生素A和锌来提高主食的营养质量，解决广泛存在的微量营养素缺乏的问题。


We must also strengthen food safety from production to consumption, including improvements in our understanding of the interaction between the food system and human health, particularly zoonotic diseases and the effects of pesticides.	同时我们必须加强从生产到消费的食品安全，包括提高对食品体系和人类健康相互作用关系的认识，尤其是动物传染性疾病和农药的影响。


Research to identify alternative energy sources to stop the conversion of maize, soybeans, oil palm, and other foods to bio-fuel should become another high priority.	另外我们还要加强替代能源的研究，以停止把玉米、大豆和油椰子转化为生物燃料的做法。


Most of the people at risk of hunger and malnutrition live in rural areas.	大多数面临饥饿和营养不良危险的人都生活在农村。


They need access to roads, markets, appropriate institutions and technology, primary health care, and education if they are to escape poverty and hunger and produce more food for an increasing world population.	要使他们摆脱贫困和饥饿以及生产更多的粮食以满足越来越庞大的世界人口，他们需要获得道路、市场、恰当的机制和技术、基本的保健以及教育。


Both public and private investments are needed to provide such access.	而我们需要公共和私人的投资来为他们提供这些元素。


Government action is needed to make markets work in developing countries and to give farmers and market agents access to appropriate technology and knowledge.  Unfortunately, rapidly falling food prices during the 30-year period since the food crisis of the early 1970’s gave governments a convenient excuse for doing little or nothing.	在发展中国家，政府需要采取行动使市场充分运转起来，同时使农民和市场经纪人能够获得恰当的技术和知识。 不幸的是，二十世纪七十年代初期的粮食危机爆发后的三十年间迅速下降的粮食价格给了政府一个对此不做多少工作甚至置若罔闻的便利的理由。


Public policy is needed in many other areas, including legislation to incorporate environmental costs into food prices, thereby encouraging sustainable production, as well as incentives and regulations to promote more efficient water use.	在其他许多领域我们需要实施公共政策，包括通过立法把环境成本融入到食品价格中以鼓励可持续的生产，以及加强激励和监管措施以促进对水更高效的使用。


National and international bio-safety regimes should be implemented to guide the development, application, and trade of modern technology and genetically modified food.	我们需要实施国家和国际生物安全体制来指导现代技术和转基因食品的开发、利用和贸易。


Government subsidies that increase the use of food commodities such as maize, soybeans, and palm oil for bio-fuel should be discontinued. 	政府应该停止对于用作生物燃料生产的玉米、大豆、油椰子等食品商品的补贴，以减少这方面的使用。


International institutions are needed to regulate globalization and ensure trade competition.	国际组织应该加强对全球化的规范以及确保贸易竞争。


Trade-distorting agricultural policies, including those in the United States, the European Union, and Japan, should be eliminated.	扭曲贸易的农业政策，包括美国、欧盟和日本的农业政策应该被取消。


While poverty reduction is the best way to reduce fertility rates, access to reproductive health care is critically important for helping families limit the number of children they have to the number they desire.  	尽管消除贫困是降低人口出生率的最佳途径，获得恰当的生殖保健对于家庭把孩子的数量控制在他们都希望的水平也是至关重要的。


The world’s natural resources are sufficient to produce the food needed in the foreseeable future without damaging the environment, but only if governments follow enlightened policies and science is put to work for the food system. 	在可预见的未来，��界的自然资源能够确保在不破坏的环境的情况，生产足够的食品，但是前提是政府应该实施明智的政策，同时食品体系能够得到科学的运作。


Fixing the Innovation Supply Chain	整顿创新供应链


CAMBRIDGE – As a graduate student at MIT, I had the opportunity to work with Professors Robert Langer and Ram Sasisekharan in an environment rife with innovative thinking.	坎布里奇——毕业于麻省理工学院的我曾有幸与罗伯特·兰格和拉姆·萨席斯卡兰教授在创新思维环境中工作。


We asked what could be possible, and were driven to pursue revolutionary technologies that were widely considered impossible.	我们探究可能的事物，并充满激情地对普遍认为不可能的革命性技术进行研究。


This experience instilled in me a simple but powerful credo: think big.	那次经验灌输给我一个简单但却牢固的信念：要有大局观。


Innovation is difficult.	创新之路无疑充满了艰辛。


If one is willing to traverse the boundary of the unknown, one should pursue the course that promises the greatest potential impact.	如果你愿意跨越未知的边界，就应当始终坚守潜在影响最大化的原则。


In exploring a wide range of subjects – energy, agriculture, medicine, and more – one approach has, in my experience, emerged as the most effective: begin with the end in mind.	以我个人的经验，开始时就明确目标在探究能源、农业、医药等领域课题时最为有效。


By identifying the problems and envisioning the preferred solution, one can define the set of constraints into which technological innovation fits, and establish a clear, albeit often difficult, path to its realization.	通过找出问题并设想解决方案，研究者可以明确技术创新的制约因素，从而在困难面前明确找到实现的方案。


A fundamental requirement of this approach is an open mind, unconstrained by the subject’s idiosyncratic dogma.	不受课题特有教条限制的开放心态是这种方法最基本的要求。


Those who are immersed in a field have an established view of what is possible, based on some combination of previous successes, citation bias, current limits of knowledge, and truth – and it is often difficult to distinguish these sources.	因为来源往往很难分清，所以此前的成功、引用偏好、目前的知识局限和公理让圈内人对“可能”的定义产生了约定俗成的认识。


But the newcomer asking the most basic questions begins to notice logical inconsistencies, from which the real constraints on solutions and technological limits arise.	但从最基本问题出发的新人能够一眼发现逻辑上的不一致，而正是这些不一致限制了问题的解决。


Breakthroughs lie at the intersection of technological possibility and market pull.	技术可能和市场拉动共同造就突破。


An understanding of these forces enables innovators to optimize the direction of invention.	对上述因素的深入理解让创新者找到最优的发明方向。


With well-defined constraints, a clear path for developing innovative technologies – one that accounts for both the known and the unknown – can be planned.	界定限制因素指出了研发创新技术（包括已知和未知领域）的明确方向。


This unconventional approach has consistently produced groundbreaking technologies that, if successfully implemented, revolutionize a field.	上述非常规方法屡次创造出突破性技术，成功运用这些技术能给某个领域带来革命性的突破。


What might be more interesting, however, is the response that such progress often elicits: “This seems so obvious.	但这种进展造成的反应往往更加有趣：“这么显而易见的问题以前怎么没有人认识到？


Why hasn’t someone done it before?”	”这种想法曾在职业生涯初期带给我很大困扰；


Early in my career, this reaction troubled me; it made me wonder whether I had, in fact, overlooked something obvious.	让我不禁怀疑自己是不是忽略了某些显而易见的因素。


But, as my experience with entrepreneurial innovation has grown, I have realized that the response is rooted in the fact that most people are trapped in a specific doctrine, which obscures the innovative solutions that lie beyond its borders.	但随着突破性创新经验的积累，我逐渐意识到这是因为多数人都受到特定教条的束缚，于是让教条以外的创新方法变得遥远而模糊。


Companies exhibit similar behavior when it comes to acquiring innovative technologies, adhering to ineffective, restrictive processes, despite an ostensibly obvious alternative: the efficient systems that manufacturers use to secure inputs for production.	企业在采用创新技术时往往行为类似，即无视表面显而易见的替代方案（企业采购生产原料的有效系统）而坚持采用低效的限制性流程。


In order to establish a clear, low-risk path to producing their goods at a predictable (and profitable) cost, companies employ teams dedicated to securing the relevant supply chains, controlling inventory, managing the production process, and so on – from the point of origin to the point of consumption.	为了以可预测（且有利可图）的成本在控制风险的前提下制造产品，企业从原产地到消费地全程雇佣负责确保相关供应链、库存控制、生产过程管理等项职能的团队。


In many cases, this involves maintaining relationships with a dedicated network of suppliers, with which producers share detailed product specifications.	很多情况下这牵涉到与掌握生产企业详细产品规格的专用供应商网络保持关系。


Doing so ensures that producers get exactly what they need, and that suppliers are able to deliver the correct inputs. The result is a well-defined, highly productive, and mutually beneficial working relationship.	这样做可以确保生产企业得到所需原材料和供应商交付合乎规格产品，从而在生产及供应企业间建立起一种要求明确、互惠互利的高效合作关系。


By contrast, the innovation supply chain (the process by which companies obtain and/or develop future products and improve on their current products) tends to be characterized by inefficiency, ambiguity, and competition.	相反，低效、模糊和竞争似乎是创新供应链（企业获取和/或研发未来产品及改善当前产品过程）的基本特征。


And, in many cases, no supply chain is in place.	很多情况下甚至根本没有供应链可言。


Most pharmaceutical companies, for example, lack effective innovation supply chains.	打个比方，多数制药公司不具备有效的创新供应链。


But only about 15% of the drugs that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved recently were developed by the same company that markets and sells them, meaning that many major pharmaceutical companies depend on the innovation ecosystem to advance their products.	但美国食品药物管理局最近批准的药品中仅有约15%是由营销和销售该药品的企业研发的，也就是说多数大型制药企业依靠创新生态系统来推进他们的产品。


Drug companies often lament that the firms from which they are sourcing innovations do not perform clinical trials to their specifications, forcing them to repeat the work.	制药企业常常感叹向他们出售创新成果的企业不按他们的要求进行临床试验，迫使他们不得不重复劳动。


Nevertheless, they are reticent about providing such specifications in advance – even when innovators request them – perhaps to protect their market position or internal efforts.	尽管如此，也许是为保护市场地位和内部工作的缘故，一提到事先公布相关标准他们都讳莫如深（即使创新企业预先要求也不例外）。


Moreover, the same companies compete directly in the supply of innovative technologies.	不仅如此，同样的企业��创新技术供应领域直接竞争。


The result is a broken supply chain.	造成的结果是供应链损坏。


Just as individual innovators must challenge conventional wisdom, companies must replace the established approach to the innovation supply chain with one that more closely resembles how they create and maintain a manufacturing supply chain.	就像个体创新者必须挑战传统智慧一样，企业也必须改变约定俗成的创新供应链方法，更好地模仿他们如何建设并维持制造供应链。


If market incumbents are willing to share “innovation specifications” (which should not be confused with innovation methods), they can develop an effective network of innovation suppliers, thereby increasing the reliability of the product-development engine.	如果愿意分享“创新规范”（“创新规范”与创新方法不应该混为一谈），市场参与者可以建立有效的创新供应商网络，并以此提升产品研发引擎的可靠性。


And, as with effective manufacturing supply chains, the supplier and the purchaser must build a reciprocal relationship, in which they do not compete with each other, practically or economically, in the specific activities that they are performing.	而且和有效的生产供应链一样，供应方和采购方必须在他们从事的活动范围内建立起避免现实或经济竞争的互惠合作关系。


An efficient supply chain can transform innovation on both the individual and industry levels.	有效供应链可以改变个人及行业层面的创新。


Indeed, a common approach – defining key market needs, coupling them with solution constraints, and pushing the boundaries of current thinking – applies to all kinds of innovation.	其实明确关键市场需求、匹配相关解决方案限制和拓展当前思维界线的普遍方法适用于所有类型的创新。


With an innovation ecosystem organized along these lines, “obvious” advances could occur significantly faster.	沿着这种思路构建的创新生态系统可以明显加快“显著”进步的频率。


How obvious is that?	能明显到什么程度有待我们去发现。


Helping Refugees Together	一同为难民提供帮助


LONDON – This year is likely to be the most momentous for refugee protection and migration since the signing of the Geneva Convention in 1951.	伦敦——今年可能继1951年《日内瓦公约》签订后在难民保护及移民领域意义最为重大。


Depending on the choices we make, we will either help create more open societies, based on greater international cooperation, or we will abet authoritarian governments and their nationalist agendas.	我们所做的选择要么会在加强国际合作的基础上协助建立更加开放的社会，要么会助长独裁政府及其民族主义议程。


So we must treat this issue with exceptional urgency and seriousness of purpose.	因此我们必须以异乎寻常的紧迫感和严肃性来看待这个问题。


The refugee and migration crises in the Mediterranean, Asia, Africa, and Central America have led to widespread and appalling human suffering.	地中海、亚洲、非洲和中美洲的难民和移民危机已经引发了令人震惊的大规模人类灾难。


The significance of this can hardly be overstated, for the world’s failure to help its most vulnerable people reflects an extraordinary breakdown of morality in the international community.	上述重要性怎么强调都不为过，因为世界未能为其最脆弱民众提供帮助反映了国际社会在道德领域异乎寻常的崩溃。


We are at risk of losing our collective understanding of why the multilateral system and international cooperation matter.	我们所面临的风险是集体忘记多边体系和国际合作的重要性。


When we refuse to protect those facing persecution, we not only endanger them; we subvert our principles of civil liberty and put our own freedom at risk.	在拒绝为受迫害者提供保护的时候，受到威胁的不仅是他们的生命安全； 同时也颠覆了公民自由原则并因此威胁到我们自身的自由。


Last year, we were offered literally a million reminders that the system of refugee protection was failing.	去年，可以说有上百万种迹象都在提醒我们难民保护体系未能正常工作。


Each asylum-seeker bravely crossing the Mediterranean was telling us that something was wrong in countries of first asylum.	每一位横渡地中海而来的勇敢的庇护寻求者都在告诉我们第一庇护国出现了某种问题。


How could we have allowed Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey to bear the burden of hosting almost five million refugees with negligible backing from the rest of the world?	我们怎么可以让约旦、黎巴嫩和土耳其在几乎得不到世界其他国家任何支持的情况下独自承担近500万难民造成的重负？


It costs at least $3,000 a year to provide a refugee with a decent level of support; the international community provided just a small fraction of this.	每年至少需要3，000美元才能为一名难民提供像样的支持； 国际社会只提供了其中很小的一部分。


When the cracks in the protection system became gaping holes, refugees voted with their feet.	当保护体系的裂缝变成大洞，难民们开始用脚投票。


Then, in a panicked effort to deter arrivals, the European Union – the birthplace of the international protection system – jeopardized its tradition of human rights and the basic standards of asylum law.	之后，在阻止难民入境的恐慌性努力中，身为国际保护制度发源地的欧盟危及了庇护法的基本标准和人权传统。


The signal this sends to frontline countries – that they need not fully respect the rules of protection – could be devastating.	这向前沿国家发出了他们不需要充分尊重保护原则的信号，而这一信号可能具有灾难性。


In the misguided belief that safeguarding sovereignty means acting unilaterally, governments have resisted an international approach to migration.	由于被保护主权等同于单方面采取行动的理念所误导，各国政府一直抵制通过国际协调来解决移民问题。


But as events in the Mediterranean have starkly demonstrated, this approach is self-defeating.	但在地中海发生的事件证明了这种做法根本行不通。


It leads to paper-tiger sovereignty, undermines the credibility of democratic governments and the multilateral system, and empowers smugglers and authoritarian populists.	由此产生了纸老虎政权、破坏了民主政府和多边体系的可信性，并且授权给走私犯和独裁民粹主义者。


We must bring this downward spiral to a halt.	我们必须停止这种恶性循环。


A systemic global crisis demands a systemic global response.	解决系统性全球危机需要制定系统性的全球对策。


By the time world leaders meet in September at the United Nations Summit on Addressing Large Movements of Refugees and Migrants, the global community must acknowledge what went wrong – and agree on how to fix it.	到各国领导人在9月召开的解决大量难民和移民流动问题的联合国峰会上会面时，国际社会必须意识到什么地方出了问题——并一致同意采用何种对策。


Rather than shifting the burden, we need to start sharing responsibility.	我们需要开始分担责任，而不是试图转嫁负担。


The smartest way to safeguard national sovereignty is to minimize the risks migrants face when trying to reach safety, and to maximize the means at their disposal to build productive lives.	维护国家主权最明智的办法莫过于在实现安全的过程中尽可能减小我们所面临的移民风险，并尽可能让他们有能力建立起富有成效的生活。


Accomplishing this require three things.	实现这一目标需要做到三件事。


First, we must use the political momentum around the refugee issue to generate commitments to specific improvements in the international protection system and to reduce the vulnerability of all migrants.	首先，我们需要利用围绕难民问题的政治势头致力于具体改进国际保护体系并降低所有移民的脆弱度。


It is simply unacceptable that just ten countries are forced to bear the lion’s share of the burden, that 86% of refugees reside in the developing world, and that fewer than 100,000 per year are resettled.	仅靠区区十国被迫承担大部分负担是完全无法接受的，86%的难民生活在发展中国家，而且每年仅有不到100,000人能够得到安置。


Supporting refugees is not optional, and we cannot allow responsibility to be defined merely by proximity to a crisis.	为难民提供支持不是一种选项，我们不能允许单纯以是否接近危机来界定自身的义务。


We must no longer go from year to year, crisis to crisis, begging for pledges (which all too often go unfulfilled).	我们必须停止在一次又一次的危机中年复一年地乞求（往往无法履行的）承诺。


We should calculate what it costs to support forced migrants and the countries that host them – as if we were preparing a family budget – and then collectively contribute the necessary funding within the context of a long-term plan.	我们应当计算为被迫移民者及其接纳国��供支持所需的成本——就像是制定家庭预算一样——之后在长期计划的框架下共同提供必要的资金支持。


We also must expand our capacity to host refugees through resettlement and other legal pathways – such as student, work, and family reunification visas.	我们还必须扩大我们通过安置及其他合法途径接纳难民的能力——包括发放留学、工作签证和家庭团聚签证。


Second, strengthening the international protection system requires us to rethink the very idea of our responsibility toward refugees.	其次，加强国际保护制度需要我们对难民责任理念展开重新思考。


We can no longer afford to treat them as deadweight in permanent camps.	我们不能再把他们视为永久性难民营中的重负。


Instead, we must help them become active, contributing members of our communities.	相反，我们必须帮助他们成为社会积极的贡献者。


Our model must be based on refugees’ full inclusion, as soon as possible, in labor markets and schools.	我们的模式必须基于难民的尽快及充分融入，无论是在学校还是在劳动力市场。


And we must vow never to hold children in detention.	我们必须发誓永远不会拘禁孩子。


Finally, the UN system must develop greater capacity to address migration and provide migrants with a stronger voice at the global level.	最后，联合国系统必须增强解决移民问题的能力，并在全球层面上给予移民更大的发言权。


Only then will we be able to agree on a set of commitments to reduce the risks that all migrants face, ensuring rescue at sea, offering safe pathways to relocation, and providing legal identities.	只有这样我们才能在一系列承诺问题上达成一致，减轻所有移民所面临的风险、确保开展海上救援作业、提供重新安置的安全途径及解决合法身份问题。


The degree of public and political attention that refugees and migration are receiving this year is not likely to be repeated in my lifetime or in that of the next generation.	今年难民和移民问题所面临的公众和政治关注可能在我本人及下代人的一生中都不可能重复。


The condition of many humans – not to mention the human condition itself – will improve or worsen depending on how we use this opportunity.	很多人的状况——更不用说人类状况本身——的改善或者恶化将取决于我们对这次机遇如何善加利用。


A Better EU Budget	更好的欧盟预算


BRUSSELS – Stopping Europe’s economic decline and overcoming its competitiveness crisis will require radical solutions.	布鲁塞尔—停止欧洲经济下滑、克服竞争力危机需要激进解决方案。


But European Union leaders remain fixated on old priorities – a lack of vision evident in negotiations over the EU’s 2014-2020 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).	但欧盟领导人仍纠缠于过时的优先事项——关于欧盟2014—2020多年财政框架（MFF）的谈判显然缺乏远见。


Once again, short-term national interests are taking precedence over the need for a forward-looking, flexible, and efficient EU budget.	短期国家利益再一次压倒了前瞻性的、灵活的和高效的欧盟预算的需要。


The European Parliament, which for the first time must approve the MFF, should use its new-found influence to uphold the EU-wide public interest and offset the blinkered, vested interests of individual member states.	第一次不得不批准MFF的欧洲议会应该利用其新得到的影响力支持泛欧盟公共利益，抵制心胸狭隘、既得利益的个别成员国。


In a climate of budgetary restraint, it is unsurprising that the European Council agreed earlier this year to reduce the EU budget by 3.4% relative to the 2007-2013 MFF.	在预算掣肘的环境下，毫不奇怪欧盟理事会会在今年早些时候将欧盟预算较2007—2013MFF削减了3. 4%。


But, with austerity under fire and EU countries looking to encourage spending, the Council should also consider the budget’s shape, ensuring that the MFF does not impede future growth and investment.	但是，在紧缩遭到口诛笔伐、欧盟成员国着眼于鼓励支出时，欧盟理事会还应该考虑预算的构成，确保MFF不会进一步阻碍增长和投资。


For example, the proposed budget slashes funding for cross-border infrastructure projects, including the expansion of high-speed broadband networks into rural areas and the development of transport and energy infrastructure.	比如，预算草案削减了对跨国基础设施项目的投入，包括将高速宽带网络扩大到农村地区以及开发运输和能源基础设施。


But the EU can add considerable value by coordinating transnational infrastructure projects, thereby achieving economies of scale and avoiding a duplication of national spending.	但欧盟可以通过协调跨国基础设施项目增加大量价值，从而获得规模经济、避免国家重复支出。


Europeans would benefit directly through improved Internet access, lower energy costs, and more efficient transport links.	欧洲人可以直接得益于互联网接入的改善、能源成本的降低和交通路线效率的提高。


Likewise, in order to lay the foundations for future economic growth, the EU should nurture new, sustainable industries and innovative small and medium-size enterprises – not cut funding for important research programs like Horizon 2020.	类似地，为了给未来经济增长打好基础，欧盟应该培养新的可持续产业和创新性中小企业——而不是削减诸如Horizon 2020这样的重要研究计划的投入。


Innovations in renewable energy, for example, are essential to improving energy security and preserving Europe’s standing as a global leader in combating climate change.	比如，可再生能源方面的创新是改善能源安全、保证欧洲在抗击气候变化方面作为全球领袖的关键。


Given that renewable energy is one of the world’s fastest-growing sectors, such investment could have a significant impact on future GDP growth and job creation.	可再生能源是世界增长最快的部门，因此这方面的投资可以对未来GDP增长和就业创造产生重大影响。


Meanwhile, agricultural subsidies and cohesion funds, which were cut by 11% and 8%, respectively, relative to the previous MFF, still account for almost two-thirds of total spending.	与此同时，农业补贴和凝聚基金（cohesion fund）分别较上期MFF削减了11%和8%，但仍占了总支出的近三分之二。


While these areas are important, their allocations should be reduced further to create space for growth-enhancing investments.	这些领域十分重要，但其配置应该进一步削减从而为提振增长的投资腾出空间。


Another major problem is the MFF’s lack of flexibility.	另一个大问题是MFF缺乏灵活性。


A priority review during the budgetary term would enable the EU to adapt its annual budgets to changing circumstances and reallocate unspent money where it is needed most.	预算期间的优先事项检视将能使欧盟令其年度预算适应变化的环境，将未支出资金重新配置到最需要的地方。


Moreover, the current structure of the EU’s annual budget carries financial risks.	此外，欧盟年度预算的当前结构包含着财政风险。


For example, many projects are completed toward the end of the budgetary cycle, generating a backlog of unpaid bills in the MFF’s later years.	比如，许多项目在预算周期末尾才完成，造成MFF后期应付款项积压。


If they are not addressed through an MFF-amending budget, they risk fueling a run-up in debt.	如果它们不通过MFF修改的预算得以纠正，则有助长债务的风险。


While the Council eventually agreed to cover the difference in the 2012 budget, an even greater shortfall is forecast for this year – and many member states are unable to oblige the Commission’s request for an additional €11.2 billion to cover these outstanding liabilities.	尽管欧盟理事会最终同意弥补2012年预算的差额，但预计今年的短缺情况更加严重——许多国家将无法满足欧盟委员会追加112欧元以覆盖未偿还债务的要求。


Now, the European Parliament is insisting that all unpaid bills should be settled before the next budgetary cycle begins.	如今，欧洲议会坚持所有未偿付款项必须在下一个预算周期开始前支付。


To be sure, the EU budget contains flexible instruments, such as the EU Solidarity Fund, which provides emergency assistance after natural disasters.	平心而论，欧盟预算包括了灵活的工具，比如提供自然灾害后紧急援助的欧盟团结基金（EU Solidarity Fund）。


But these tools have not always been used as effectively as possible.	但这些工具并不总能以效率最高的方式使用。


Disbursal of relief funds to help Italy rebuild after severe floods in 2011 took almost a year, owing to politicization in the Council.	由于欧盟理事会的政治化，2011年用于帮助意大利严重洪水灾害的纾困资金的发放用了近一年时间。


Even without the delays caused by political interference, such instruments are inadequate.	即使没有政治干预造成的拖延，这些工具也是捉襟见肘的。


Scope to adapt the MFF as a whole is needed, not least to ensure its legitimacy.	从整体看，MFF需要腾挪空间，这不仅是为了保证其合法性。


It should include a comprehensive and binding revision clause ensuring that the state of public finances and collective investment needs are reassessed at the halfway point.	MFF应该包括全面的整体修订条款，以确保公共财政状况和集体投资需要得到中期重新评估。


This would give the next European Parliament – and the voters who elect its members – the influence over the EU’s long-term budget that a democratic system requires.	这将给予下一届欧洲议会（以及选出其议员的选民）对民主制度所要求的欧盟长期预算的影响力。


Agreement on budgetary priorities should be achieved in the Council through qualified majority voting, so that a single country cannot hijack the process.	关于预算优先项的协议应该在欧盟理事会中通过合格多数表决实现，以保证单个国家无法劫持整个过程。


A “sunset clause” would prevent the Council from blocking subsequent revisions by, say, stipulating that the budget would revert to 2013 levels if no review were conducted by the specified date.	“日落条款”可以（比如）规定若在某个规定日期没有完成检视，预算将恢复2013年水平，以此防止欧洲理事会阻挠后续修订。


In the long term, the MFF’s timing should be adjusted to coincide with the European Parliament’s mandate, and the EU’s excessive reliance on national contributions should be reduced.	从长期看，MFF的时机应该进行调整以适应欧洲议会的指令，欧盟过度依赖国家出资的现状也应该有所遏制。


As trade liberalization has diminished the EU’s income, mainly derived from customs duties, individual countries have increasingly sought to minimize their net contributions.	随着贸易自由化降低了欧盟的收入（主要来自关税），个体国家开始日益寻求减少净出资规模。


Bargaining between member states leads to lowest-common-denominator budgets that appease vested interests but fail to support EU member states’ shared ambitions.	国家间的讨价还价导致公分母��小化的预算，这能安抚既得利益，但无法支持欧盟成员国的共同雄心。


Europe thus ends up losing, and the true benefits of EU membership are not fully realized.	因此欧洲将遭遇损失，欧盟成员国资格的好处无法充分实现。


Add to that the way deals are reached – behind closed doors and without adequate democratic oversight – and it is not surprising that Europeans’ views of the EU are becoming increasingly negative.	除此之外，考虑到协议达成的方式——闭门讨论而不受到充分的民主监督，无怪乎欧洲人对欧盟的看法越来越负面。


A system based on the EU’s own resources would reduce tension between contributors and beneficiaries and ease pressure on member states’ budgets.	基于欧盟本身资源的制度能减缓出资国和受益国之间的紧张，缓解成员国的预算压力。


Existing proposals include a “Robin Hood” tax on financial transactions, a share of the profits from the EU’s carbon emissions-trading scheme, or a larger take from value-added tax receipts.	现有方案包括对金融交易征收“罗宾汉”税、抽取欧盟碳排放交易机制的一部分利润或更多地从增值税中抽成。


But the Council has left this potentially contentious subject out of recent discussions.	但欧盟理事会并没有将可能引起争议的话题纳入当前讨论。


That is precisely the problem.	这就是问题所在。


Political leadership calls for vision and courage.	政治领导要求远见和勇气。


Postponing important decisions leads to an inefficient budget shaped by competing national interests.	中止重要决定导致国家利益的相互竞争，产生低效的预算。


Without a responsive budgetary policy that focuses on the EU as a whole, the MFF negotiations will provide plenty of high drama and fine rhetoric, but few real benefits that might boost Europe’s recovery.	如果没有专注于作为整体的欧盟的响应预算，MFF谈判将徒有其表，而不会对欧洲复苏带来多少实质的裨益。


Missing Growth Multipliers	被忽视的增长乘数


PRINCETON – In April 2010, when the global economy was beginning to recover from the shock of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook predicted that global GDP growth would exceed 4% in 2010, with a steady annual growth rate of 4.5% maintained through 2015.	普林斯顿—2010年4月，当全球经济开始从2008—2009年金融危机的冲击中复苏时，IMF的《世界经济展望》预测2010年全球GDP增长将超4%，并维持4. 5%的年增长直到2015年。


But the forecast proved to be far too optimistic.	但该预测显然是太过乐观了。


In fact, global growth has decelerated.	事实上，全球增长出现了减速。


In its most recent WEO, the IMF forecasts global GDP to grow by only 3.3% in 2012, and by 3.6% in 2013.	在最新的《世界经济展望》中，IMF预测2012年全球GDP增长将仅为3. 3%，2013年为3.


Moreover, the downgrading of growth prospects is remarkably widespread.	6%。 此外，增长前景的恶化之势在极快地蔓延。


The forecast errors have three potential sources: failure to recognize the time needed for economic recovery after a financial crisis; underestimation of the “fiscal multipliers” (the size of output loss owing to fiscal austerity); and neglect of the “world-trade multiplier” (the tendency for countries to drag each other down as their economies contract).	对“财政乘数”（因财政紧缩导致的产出损失）的低估； 以及对“世界贸易乘数”（随着经济收缩各国互拖后腿的倾向）的忽视。


For the most part, the severity and implications of the financial crisis were judged well.	总的来说，金融危机的严重性和影响得到了很好的预判。


Lessons from the October 2008 WEO, which analyzed recoveries after systemic financial stress, were incorporated into subsequent forecasts.	2008年10月的《世界经济展望》分析了经历系统金融压力之后的复苏，从中得出的教训被用在了后续预测中。


As a result, predictions for the United States – where household deleveraging continues to constrain economic growth – have fallen short only modestly.	结果，对美国——家庭去杠杆过程仍在约束经济增长——的预测与实际只是略有不同。 2010年4月的报告预测2011—2013年间的年增长率约为2.


The April 2010 report forecast a US growth rate of roughly 2.5% annually in 2012-2013; current projections put the rate a little higher than 2%.	5%； 当前预测则为略高于2%。


By contrast, the fiscal multiplier was seriously underestimated – as the WEO has now recognized.	相反，财政乘数被严重低估了——这是《世界经济展望》最新认识到的一点。


Consequently, forecasts for the United Kingdom – where financial-sector stresses largely resembled those in the US – have been significantly less accurate.	结果，对英国——其受到的金融部门压力与美国大体相同——的预测质量要差得多。


The April 2010 WEO forecast a UK annual growth rate of nearly 3% in 2012-2013; instead, GDP is likely to contract this year and increase by roughly 1% next year.	在2010年4月的《世界经济展望》中，IMF预测2012—2013年英国年经济增长率为近3%； 目前的预测是今年GDP可能出现下降，明年大约也只能增长1%。


Much of this costly divergence from the earlier projections can be attributed to the benign view of fiscal consolidation that UK authorities and the IMF shared.	早先的预测产生如此巨大的差异的原因可以归于英国当局和IMF对财政整合估计不足。


Likewise, the eurozone’s heavily indebted economies (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) have performed considerably worse than projected, owing to significant spending cuts and tax hikes.	类似地，欧元区重债国（希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙）的表现也远远不及预测，原因是大规模的支出削减和税收增加。


For example, Portugal’s GDP was expected to grow by 1% this year; in fact, it will contract by a stunning 3%.	比如，根据预测，今年葡萄牙GDP将增长1%； 事实上，可能大降3%。


The European Commission’s claim that this slowdown reflects high sovereign-default risk, rather than fiscal consolidation, is belied by the UK, where the sovereign risk is deemed by markets to be virtually nonexistent.	欧盟委员会宣称，如此放缓反映了高主权违约风险而不是财政整合，这一观点已经被英国证明是错误的——市场认为该国的主权风险可以忽略不计。


The world-trade multiplier, though less widely recognized, helps to explain why the growth deceleration has been so widespread and persistent.	世界贸易乘数没有被如此广泛地认识到，但它有助于解释为何增长减速如此普遍、如此持久。


When a country’s economic growth slows, it imports less from other countries, thereby reducing those countries’ growth rates, and causing them, too, to reduce imports.	当一国的经济增长放缓时，它的进口会有所减少，从而影响出口国的增长率，并导致它们也减少进口。


The eurozone has been at the epicenter of this contractionary force on global growth.	欧元区一直处于全球赠正约束力的中心。


Since eurozone countries trade extensively with each other and the rest of the world, their slowdowns have contributed significantly to a decrease in global trade, in turn undermining global growth.	欧元区各国彼此之间和对其他地区的贸易十分活跃，这些国家的减速导致了全球贸易量的大幅下滑，从而反过来抑制了全球增长。


In particular, as European imports from East Asia have fallen, East Asian economies’ growth is down sharply from last year and the 2010 forecast – and, predictably, growth in their imports from the rest of the world has lost momentum.	特别是，随着欧洲从东亚国家进口量的下降，东亚经济体的增长比去年和2010年的预测值低得多，不难预测，它们从世界其他地区的进口势头也大大减弱了。


Global trade has steadily weakened, with almost no increase in the last six months.	全球贸易在稳步萎靡，过去六个月以来几无增长。


The once-popular notion, built into growth forecasts, that exports would provide an escape route from the crisis was never credible.	增长预测中曾经的流行概念——出口将成为逃生通道——已不再可信。


That notion has now been turned on its head: as economic growth has stalled, falling import demand from trade partners has caused economic woes to spread and deepen.	如今，这一概念已经来了个一百八十度大转弯：随着经济增长的停滞，贸易伙伴下降的进口需求导致了经济不景气的蔓延和深化。


The impact of slowing global trade is most apparent for Germany, which was not burdened with excessive household or corporate debt, and enjoyed a favorable fiscal position.	全球贸易放缓的影响在德国最为明显。 该国并没有家庭和企业负债过多的负担，财政状况也很健康。


To escape the crisis, Germany used rapid export growth – especially to meet voracious Chinese demand. Although growth was expected to slow subsequently, it was forecast at roughly 2% in 2012-2013.	为了走出危机，德国利用了出口的快速增长——特别是来自无尽的中国需求的出口增长。


But, as Chinese growth has decelerated – owing partly to decreased exports to Europe – the German GDP forecast has been halved.	但是，随着中国增长的放缓——部分是因为对欧出口下降——德国GDP预测值也被腰斩。


And, given that this year’s growth has largely already occurred, Germany’s economy has now plateaued – and could even be contracting.	此外，今年的增长基本已成定局，德国将陷入停顿，甚至有可能出现衰退。


In good times, the trade generated by a country’s growth bolsters global growth.	在好光景时，一国增长带来的贸易能够提振全球增长。


But, in times of crisis, the trade spillovers have the opposite effect.	但是，在危机时，会出现相反的贸易效应。


As the global economy has become increasingly interconnected, these trade multipliers have increased.	随着全球经济联系越来越紧密，贸易乘数也在扩大。


Indeed, while less ominous and dramatic than financial contagion, trade spillovers profoundly influence global growth prospects.	事实上，贸易溢出深远地影响着全球增长前景，只不过没有金融传染病那样显著和严重罢了。


Failure to recognize their impact implies that export – and, in turn, growth – projections will continue to miss the mark.	不能认识到这一点意味着出口——以及反过来的增长——预测将继续无法成为现实。


The projected increase in global growth next year will likely not happen.	预料中的明年全球贸易增长很可能不会发生。


On the contrary, policy errors and delays in individual countries will seriously damage economies worldwide.	相反，各国政策错误和拖延将严重破坏全球各国的经济。


When Democracy Fails the People	当民主辜负人民的期望


NEW YORK – Nobel laureate Amartya Sen famously suggested that famines do not occur in democracies, because accountable governments will do everything they can to avoid mass starvation.	纽约——民主国家不会爆发饥荒是诺贝尔奖得主阿马蒂亚·森的名言，因为负责任的政府会尽一切可能避免发生大规模饥荒。


The same reasoning should apply to clean drinking water; like food, it is a resource that is indispensable for our survival and wellbeing.	同样的道理也适用于清洁饮水； 像粮食一样，清洁饮水也是我们生存和福祉所必不可少的资源。


And yet recent events in the United States offer depressing insights about the limits of Sen’s dictum, and about how democracies can fail the people they are ostensibly supposed to serve.	但最近发生在美国的事件令人失望地凸显了上述名言的局限性，证明民主国家可以如何辜负他们本应为之服务的民众。


In 2014, the municipal government of Flint, Michigan, stopped purchasing water from Detroit and began sourcing it from a nearby river.	2014年，密歇根州弗林特市政府停止从底特律购水，并开始从临近的河流中采水使用。


The decision was motivated by cost concerns.	成本问题驱动了上述决定。


Worries about the quality of the water were disregarded.	民众对饮水质量的担忧遭到了漠视。


The river water, it turned out, corroded the city’s aging pipes; by the time it left the taps, it could contain high levels of toxic lead.	结果是河水腐蚀了这座城市已经老化的水管； 流出龙头的自来水可能含有高浓度的有毒铅金属。


And yet nobody seemed to care.	但这个问题似乎并未得到重视。


The city and state governments looked the other way, even after companies and hospitals declared the water unfit for use and switched to other sources.	即使在企业和医院宣布河水不适宜饮用并改用其他水源后，市、州两级政府仍然对此视而不见。


Flint’s residents complained of the water’s color and taste.	水的味道和颜色引起了弗林特居民的投诉。


But no matter how loud they raised their voices – either alone or collectively – they were disparaged as ignorant or dismissed as serial complainers.	但无论以个人或集体名义的投诉如何激烈——均被斥之为无知或恶意抱怨而无人理睬。


Even after doctors presented evidence that lead levels in the blood of the city’s children had doubled in the space of a year, the objections of the people of Flint fell on deaf ears.	即使医生有证据证明当地儿童的血铅水平在短短一年内翻番，政府依然对弗林特民众的抗议置若罔闻。


The US may be one of the world’s most successful democracies, with regular elections and a representative government that is supposed to be – in Abraham Lincoln’s famous phrase – “of the people, by the people, for the people.”	美国或许是全世界最成功的民主国家之一，其定期选举制度和具有代表性的政府本来应当——借用亚伯拉罕·林肯的名言——实现“民有、民治、民享。


And yet not one level of government took the necessary measures to ensure that the residents of Flint had access to safe drinking water.	”但没有哪级政府采取必要措施确保弗林特居民能够喝上安全的饮用水。


And Flint is not a solitary case; it is emblematic of a global problem.	弗林特绝非孤例； 而是全球性饮用水问题的代表。


Millions of people worldwide lack access to clean drinking water.	全世界数百万人无法获得干净的饮水。


All too often, the world’s poor are forced to drink contaminated water, drill holes in pipelines, or buy bottled water that is far more expensive than what flows from the taps of their richer neighbors.	很多时候，穷人被迫饮用被污染的水、在管道上打孔、或购买比富有邻居贵得多的瓶装水饮用。


And the issue is only growing in importance as competition for drinking water heats up.	随着争夺饮用水的竞争日趋激烈 ，问题的严重性也日益升高。


When a government proves unresponsive or incompetent, a common prescription is to limit its influence, so that the power of the market can be unleashed.	如果事实证明政府不作为或不称职，常规的做法是限制其影响力而让市场力量发挥作用。


But when it comes to essential resources – such as water – this approach becomes morally repugnant.	但一旦涉及水等重要资源——这种方法很容易在道德上引起人们的厌恶。


Allocating clean water, for example, to those able to pay the most for it results in situations where industrial applications win out over individual needs, leaving many with none.	举例来讲，为出价最高者供应清洁用水导致工业用水优先于个人用水，从而导致很多人无水可用。


The real problem is not water scarcity; it is that existing supplies are unequally distributed and thus unaffordable to the poor.	真正的问题并非缺水； 而是现有资源分配不公，并导致穷人无力支付。


This might be tolerable when it comes to ordinary goods – not everyone can have a yacht; but when it comes to an essential resource, we must ensure access on an equitable basis.	普通商品这样或许还可以容忍——不是所有人都能拥有游艇； 但如果涉及到重要资源，我们必须保证民众能够平等地享受服务。


That means we have to find a better way to govern resources like water.	这意味着我们必须探索更有效的水资源管理方法。


For a message to be effective, it must reach and influence those in control – whether they are elected officials, regulators, or private actors.	信息要想得到有效传递，就必须触及并影响包括民选官员、监管机构或私营部门在内的当权者。


Elections provide people with the opportunity to vote, but that is not the same thing as giving them a voice, much less ensuring that raised voices are listened to.	选举为民众提供了投票机会，但并不意味着给了他们发言权，更不要说保证他们的意见被听到。


Flint is not only a wake-up call for democracy in the US; it is a stark lesson in the need for better governance worldwide.	弗林特不仅为美国民主敲响了警钟； 更证明了改善全球治理是多么必要。


When cost-cutting efforts produce drinking water that fails to meet basic health standards, “government for the people” has been seriously eroded.	降成本导致饮用水满足不了基本的卫生标准严重侵蚀了政府的“民享原则”。


As the late Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom demonstrated, ordinary people are capable of sharing resources and avoiding the “tragedy of the commons.”	正如已故诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆所指出的那样，普通人有能力在共享资源的同时避免“公地悲剧”的发生。


And yet the imperative for action lies with those in control of essential resources, not with those in need of them.	但重要资源控制者（而非需求者）必须采取行动。


If the problem of equitable access is to be solved, authorities must fulfill their responsibility to the governed, which means listening, learning, and ultimately leading the effort to address it.	要想实现平等服务，政府必须履行其对被管理者的义务，更积极地倾听���学习并最终领导问题的解决工作。


Rediscovering Fiscal Policy at the G7	在G7重新发现财政政策


ALGIERS – As G7 leaders convene in Ise-Shima, Japan, the global economy’s fragility is a top concern.	阿尔及尔—G7领导人在日本伊势志摩开会，全球经济的脆弱性是一大关注点。


But instead of focusing on currency wars, the leaders of the major developed economies should be discussing fiscal policy, which under current conditions would be a more powerful tool than monetary policy for boosting economic activity.	但这些主要发达经济体领导人不应该关注货币战争，而应该讨论财政政策，在当前条件下，财政政策是比货币政策更加有力的提振经济活动的工具。


After all, today, unlike in normal times, the effects of fiscal policy would not be limited by too-high interest rates, inadequate private demand, strict capacity constraints, or excessive inflation.	毕竟，今时不同常规时期，财政政策的效果不会受利率过高、私人需求不足、严格的产能限制或过度通胀的掣肘。


Economists dismiss fiscal policy largely because it is “politically constrained.”	经济学家轻视财政政策，主要是因为财政政策“政治上束手束脚”。


But that is not a good reason to give up on it.	但这绝非放弃财政政策的好理由。


On the contrary, if the political process is producing problematic fiscal policies, as it is today, that is all the more reason for economists to voice their concerns.	相反，如果政治进程产生了有问题的财政政策——比如现在的情况——经济学家更应该表示关注。


The heyday of activist fiscal policy was a half-century ago.	积极财政政策的黄金时代是半个世纪前。


Most advanced countries pursued a countercyclical approach, reining in spending or raising taxes during periods of economic expansion and enacting stimulus policies during recessions.	大部分发达国家都采取了反周期方针，在经济扩张器遏制支出或提高税率，在经济衰退期实施刺激政策。


The saying “we are all Keynesians now,” attributed to Milton Friedman in 1965 and Richard Nixon in 1971, captured the economic zeitgeist.	有句话叫“现在我们都是凯恩斯主义者”，据说米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）在1965年和理查德·尼克松在1971年都说过，它代表了当时的经济学时代精神。


But, after 2000, some began to pursue pro-cyclical budgetary policies.	但是，2000年后，一些国家开始采取顺周期预算政策。


When the economy was booming, they implemented fiscal stimulus, thereby reinforcing the upswing.	在经济繁荣期，它们实施财政刺激，从而加强升势。


When the economy experienced a downturn, they pursued fiscal austerity, exacerbating the recession.	当经济遭遇颓势时，它们采取财政紧缩，加剧衰退。


Among those who acted pro-cyclically were some US politicians.	采取顺周期政策的就包括一些美国政客。


At the beginning of this century, President George W. Bush threw away the large fiscal surpluses that he had inherited from Bill Clinton, enacting large tax cuts and rapid spending increases even from 2003 to 2007, as the economy neared its peak.	本世纪初，小布什肆意挥霍从比尔·克林顿手中继承的巨大的财政盈余，在2003到2007年间经济处于巅峰时大幅减税并迅速提高支出。


He was aided and abetted by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who bizarrely considered the surpluses a threat.	辅助和教唆小布什的是美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan），他怪异地认为盈余是一个威胁。


It was during this period that Vice President Dick Cheney reportedly declared that former President Ronald Reagan had proved that “deficits don’t matter.”	在此期间，据说副总统迪克·切尼（Dick Cheney）曾宣称前总统罗纳德·里根证明了“赤字不重要”。


Saddled with debt, US leaders felt less able to enact badly needed fiscal stimulus when the Great Recession hit in 2007.	当2007年大衰退爆发时，背负重重债务的美国领导人感到无力实施急需的财政刺激。


Democrats understood that it was necessary, but Republicans decided, at precisely the wrong time, that deficits were bad, after all.	民主党明白财政刺激是必须的，但共和党却在完全错误的时间认定赤字到底是不好的。


In January 2009, when the economy was tanking, the Republicans voted against President Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus plan.	2009年1月，经济正在萎缩，而共和党人投票否决了总统奥巴马的财政刺激计划。


Fortunately, the policy was enacted nonetheless, making a major contribution to reversing the free-fall.	幸运的是，该政策最终还是实施了，对力挽狂澜起到了重要作用。


But once the Republicans took over the House of Representatives in 2010, they were able to block Obama’s further attempts to stimulate the still-weak economy.	但当2010年共和党控制众议院后，他们就能够阻挠奥巴马进一步刺激仍然萎靡的经济了。


Then there is the poster child for the post-millennial turn to pro-cyclical fiscal policy: Greece.	接下来我们看看千禧年后转向亲周期财政政策的典范：希腊。


Like Bush, the country ran excessive budget deficits while the economy was expanding, from 2003 to 2008.	和小布什一样，希腊在2003—2008年间经济扩张时产生了过大的预算赤字。


Then, in 2010, confronting a massive debt crisis, Greece acquiesced to its European creditors and adopted strict austerity, which exacerbated economic contraction.	接着，2010年爆发了严重债务危机，希腊默默顺从了欧洲债权人，实施了严格的紧缩，而这加剧了经济萎缩。


As a result, far from restoring a sustainable debt burden as intended, the policy caused the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise rapidly.	结果，该政策并没有让债务负担如愿重新可持续化，反而使债务-GDP比迅速上升。


European countries in general base their budget plans on unnecessarily biased official forecasts, which can push them toward pro-cyclical policy.	总体而言，欧洲国家的预算计划基于存在不必要的偏误的官方预测，这些预测导致了它们采取顺周期政策。


Before 2008, all eurozone members, not only Greece, “unexpectedly” exceeded the 3%-of-GDP ceiling for budget deficits at times.	2008年前，所有欧元区国家（而不仅仅是希腊）都“出人意料地”多次超过GDP的3%的预算赤字上限。


And, after 2008, the pattern of pro-cyclical fiscal contraction, leading to falling income and rising debt-to-GDP ratios, played out not just in Greece, but in Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain as well.	而在2008年后，顺周期财政收缩模式又导致收入下降和债务-GDP比上升，不仅希腊如此，爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙也是如此。


Austerity’s leading champion is, no surprise, Germany.	毫不奇怪，鼓吹紧缩的旗手是德国。


The Germans had reluctantly agreed, at the April 2009 G20 summit in London, that the US, China, and other major countries would expand demand to help pull the world out of recession.	2009年4月G20伦敦峰会期间，德国人勉强承认美国、中国和其他主要国家要扩大需求帮助世界走出衰退。


But when the Greek crisis erupted at the end of that year, the Germans reverted to their deeply held beliefs in fiscal rectitude.	但在当年年底希腊危机爆发时，德国人又回到了其坚定恪守的财政正确信念。


At first, the International Monetary Fund went along with the claim by Greece’s creditors that austerity could work.	一开始，国际货币基金组织（IMF）亦附和希腊债权人关于紧缩能起作用的说法。


But in January 2013, the IMF’s then-chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, published a paper concluding that fiscal multipliers were much higher than the IMF had thought, and thus that the austerity programs in the struggling countries of the eurozone’s periphery might have been excessive.	但在2013年1月，时任IMF首席经济学家奥利佛·布兰查德（Olivier Blanchard）发表了一篇文章，认为财政乘数要比IMF此前认为的大得多，因此受困的欧元区外围国的紧缩计划大有过度之嫌。


Today, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde well recognizes that, for Greece to achieve a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio, it needs more debt relief, not demands for surpluses of 3.5% of GDP.	如今，IMF总裁拉加德清楚地认识到，要让希腊实现可持续的债务-GDP比，就需要更多的债务纾困而不是要求盈余超过GDP的3. 5%。


Japan, host of this week’s G7 meeting, has also made fiscal mistakes.	本周G7峰会的东道主日本也犯了财政错误。


In April 2014, even with the Bank of Japan having pursued aggressive quantitative easing to kick-start economic growth, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe followed through on a planned consumption-tax hike, from 5% to 8%.	2014年4月，尽管日本银行已经采取了激进的量化宽松刺激经济增长，但首相安倍晋三坚持按计划将消费税从5%提高到8%。


As many had predicted, Japan fell back into recession.	如许多人所预测的，日本再度陷入衰退。


Very soon, Abe must decide whether to raise the consumption tax again, to 10%.	很快，安倍就必须决定是否再次将消费税提高到10%。


While Japanese officials are not being unreasonable in worrying about the country’s huge national debt, near-zero interest rates show that creditworthiness is not the problem today.	日本官员担心为数巨大的国民债务不无道理，但接近于零的利率表明信誉并不是当务之急。


What Japan needs is a stronger economy.	日本需要的是更加坚挺的经济。


This clearly indicates that Japan should not proceed with another large increase in the consumption tax.	这显然表明日本不应该再度大幅提高消费税。


What it could do instead is pursue a pre-set path of small annual increases in the consumption tax over the next 20 years.	相反，它可以在未来20年中以逐年小幅增加的方式按计划提高消费税。


To be sure, there are also examples of countries that have used countercyclical fiscal policy to their advantage since 2000.	诚然，也有一些国家在2000年后采取了反周期政策并取得优势。


Some developing countries – including Chile, Botswana, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea – took advantage of the boom years to run budget surpluses, pay down debt, and build up reserves.	一些发展中国家——包括智利、博茨瓦纳、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和韩国——利用经济繁荣期实现预算盈余，减少债务并积累储备。


As a result, they had enough fiscal space to relax such policies when the 2008-2009 crisis hit.	结果，当2008—2009年危机爆发时，它们有足够的空间放松财政政策。


Unfortunately, some that escaped pro-cyclicality in the last decade have since been backsliding.	不幸的是，一些在过去十年中一度摆脱了顺周期政策的国家又故态复萌。


Thailand is one example.	泰国是一个例子。


Another is Brazil, whose failure to take advantage of the renewed commodity boom of 2010-2011 to eliminate its budget deficit contributed substantially to the mess it is in today.	另一个例子是巴西，它没有抓住2010—2011年大宗商品繁荣的回光返照消除预算赤字，这是其如今陷入一片混乱的重要原因。


Politicians virtually everywhere would do well to re-read the fiscal policy chapter in their introductory macroeconomics textbooks.	几乎所有国家的政客都通过重温入门宏观经学教科书中的财政政策章节大获裨益。


Fast-Tracking Climate Action	快车道气候行动


BONN – Last December in Paris, world leaders came together to agree on a set of goals and pathways for decarbonizing the global economy and increasing our capacity to adapt to climate change.	波恩—去年12月在巴黎，世界领导人齐聚一堂，就一系列全球经济去碳化和提升我们适应气候变化的能力的目标和路径形成了一致。


It was a landmark achievement, but it was just the beginning.	这是一个标志性成就，但只是开始。


Every country – with the support of cities, the private sector, and citizens – must now move swiftly to fulfill its promises and bring climate change under control.	每个国家——在城市、私人部门和公民的支持下——现在应该迅速行动起来兑现承诺，让气候变化处于控制之下。


The need for urgent, concerted action cannot be emphasized enough.	联合行动的紧迫性毋庸置疑。


Any delay will cause negative consequences to continue to accumulate.	任何拖延都会导致负面后果继续累积。


This will not only cause tremendous suffering, especially to the world’s most vulnerable people; it will reverberate for decades to come, making the key goal of keeping the increase in global temperature below 2º Celsius (relative to pre-industrial levels) increasingly costly.	这不但将造成巨大的灾难，特别是对全世界最脆弱人群； 其影响将延绵几十年，让控制全球（较前工业化水平）升温幅度不超过2摄氏度的目标成本日益增加。


The rapid progress that is needed will require major reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, achieved through increased investment in the development and expansion of cleaner and more efficient energy.	我们需要的迅速进展要求大幅降低二氧化碳排放量，这可以通过增加开发和扩张更清洁、更高效的能源的投资实现。


At the same time, efforts to conserve and expand carbon “sinks” – that is, the forests, wetlands, grasslands, mangroves, and sea grasses that absorb much of the CO2 being emitted – are crucial.	与此同时，保护和扩大碳“沉淀”——即吸收大量排放出来的二氧化碳的森林、湿地、草地、红树林和海藻——也很关键。


But even under the most optimistic scenarios, it will take time to engineer a global shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energies and to restore the world’s badly depleted ecological infrastructure.	但即使在最乐观的情形中，也需要时间推动从化石燃料转向可再生能源的全球转型以及重塑地球严重耗竭的生态基础设施。


That is why it is important to pursue measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), which also cause climate change.	因此，减少短期气候污染物（SLCP，它们也造成气候变化）的措施十分重要。


These include black carbon or soot (the primary component of particulate matter that is also a major and growing health concern); hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), used most commonly in refrigeration; and methane and tropospheric (or ground-level) ozone.	SLCP包括黑炭或油烟（颗粒物质的主要成分，也是日益严重的重大健康威胁）、氟氢碳化物（HFC，冰箱中最常用）； 以及甲烷和对流层（或地面）臭氧。


Pound for pound, these “super pollutants” cause much more warming than CO2.	在同等条件下，这些“超级污染物”造成的危险远甚于二氧化碳。


Indeed, the warming impact of soot is about 900 times greater than that of carbon, and the impact of methane is about 28 times greater; many of the HFCs have a warming impact that is about 2,000 times more powerful than that of CO2.	事实上，油烟的危险影响比比碳高出900倍，甲烷高出28倍，许多氟氢碳化物的危险是二氧化碳的2,000倍左右。


The problems caused by SLCPs extend beyond climate change.	SLCP所造成的问题远不止于气候变化。


Black carbon and tropospheric ozone pollution are traditional air pollutants, which together kill nearly seven million people a year and destroy hundreds of millions of tons of food crops.	黑炭和平流层臭氧污染是传统空气污染物，两者相加每年造成近七百万人死亡，破坏数亿吨粮食作物。


The United Nations Environment Programme’s Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants estimates that fast action to reduce SLCPs, especially methane and black carbon, has the potential to slow down the warming expected by 2050 by as much as 0.5º Celsius.	联合国环境署降低短期污染物气候和清洁空气联盟估计，降低SLCP（特别是甲烷和黑炭）的快速行动有望可以减缓2050年预期变暖幅度达0. 5摄氏度。


Moreover, it could save over two million lives annually, while preventing the loss of more than 30 million tons of crops per year.	此外，每年还可以拯救两百万条生命，同时预防每年3,000万吨农作物损失。


There is reason to hope that we can reap these benefits.	可以期望我们能实现这些收益。


Under the Paris agreement, individual countries are to achieve emissions reductions according to their own nationally determined contributions.	根据巴黎协定，个体国家要根据自主确定的贡献实现减排。


More than a dozen countries have included SLCPs in their national climate action plans.	十多个国家将SLCP纳入了国家气候行动计划。


Furthermore, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition is working with its 50 member countries, as well as the World Bank and World Health Organization, to cut the super pollutants.	此外，气候和清洁空气联盟正在与其50个成员国以及世界银行和世界卫生组织一起致力于减少超级污染物。


But, to be successful, efforts must go above and beyond the Paris agreement.	但是，要想成功，采取的措施必须超越巴黎协定。


Fortunately, progress is being made here, too.	幸运的是，这方面也正在取得进步。


Already, measures to mitigate HFC production and consumption are being pursued through the Montreal Protocol on protecting the ozone layer.	目前，减少HFC产量和消费量的措施正在通过旨在保护臭氧层的蒙特利尔议定书实施。


Governments opened formal negotiations last November, and are aiming to reach agreement by the end of this year.	去年11月，各国政府开始正式谈判，计划在今年年底形成协议。


This builds on an impressive phase-out of older chemicals, such as chlorofluorocarbons and others, that has averted the equivalent of 135 billion tons of CO2 from entering the atmosphere, while accelerating the recovery of the ozone layer.	其基础是一个令人印象深刻的计划：逐步淘汰旧化学物质（如氯氟碳化物等），相当于减少1,350亿吨二氧化碳进入大气层，同时也加快了臭氧层的恢复。


Of course, the reduction of SLCPs should not come at the expense of efforts to cut CO2 emissions.	当然，SLCP的减少不应该挤占其他减少二氧化碳排放的支出。


On the contrary, the world can and must reduce both simultaneously.	相反，世界能够也必须同时减少两者。


And, indeed, efforts to reduce CO2 emissions are also occurring outside the Paris agreement framework.	此外，事实上降低二氧化碳排放的措施也在巴黎协定框架之外进行。


The International Civil Aviation Organization is working to reduce emissions from air travel, having reached a preliminary agreement on the subject just a few weeks ago.	国际民用航空组织正致力于减少航空旅行的排放，几周前已经达成这方面的初步协议 。


The International Maritime Organization is pursuing similar goals for shipping.	国际海洋组织也在航运业追求同样的目标。


Warming from any climate pollutant is dangerous and sets in motion a series of potentially irreversible effects, including the continued rise of sea levels, destruction of forests, depletion of Arctic sea ice and glaciers in Greenland and the Tibetan Plateau, and melting of permafrost.	因为任何气候污染物而变暖都是危险的，会带来一系列可能无法逆转的影响，包括海平面上升、森林破坏、北极海冰和格陵兰岛和青藏高原冰川消融、永冻土层融化等。


Making matters worse, these effects can reinforce one another, tipping the world into a vicious cycle that becomes ever more difficult to escape.	更糟糕的是，这些影响可以互相强化，将世界拖入一个变得越来越难以摆脱的恶性循环。


But if we act fast, harvesting fresh momentum on HFCs under sister agreements like Montreal and a growing array of cooperative coalitions, we can avoid disaster and ensure long-term economic development, including by supporting progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.	但如果我们行动迅速，借蒙特利尔等姊妹协定和日益增多的合作联盟的东风助推减少HFC的事业，我们可以避免灾难，确保长期经济发展，包括通过支持实现可持续发展目标的进步。


Simply put, the rate of action on all climate-related emissions will determine our success in eradicating poverty and will shape the world our descendants will inherit.	简言之，所有气候相关排放方面的行动速度将决定我们能否成功消除贫困，也将决定我们的子孙后代将继承一个怎样的世界。


With governments preparing to sign the Paris agreement on April 22, there has never been a better opportunity to press ahead toward a brighter, cleaner, more prosperous future.	政府正在准备在4月22日签署巴黎协定，从未有过如此好的机会推动更光明、更清洁、更繁荣的未来。


The Secret Sex Lives of Crop Plants	农作物的秘密性生活


ABERYSTWYTH – Scientists estimate that there are more than 400,000 species of plants on earth, at least half of which are edible for humans.	阿伯里斯特威斯—科学家估计，地球上有400,000万种以上植物，其中至少有一半可供人类食用。


Indeed, it is entirely possible that we are capable of eating 300,000 plant species.	事实上，完全有可能我们可以吃300,000种植物。


And yet we consume just a tiny fraction of that.	但我们只消费其中极小部分。


Homo sapiens, the most cosmopolitan of species, one that thrives by virtue of being a generalist, eats only about 200 plant species.	因技能广泛而成为数量最大的物种——智人只吃大约200种植物。


Remarkably, a mere three crops – maize, rice, and wheat – account for more than half of the calories and proteins that we derive from plants.	引人注目的是，仅仅三种农作物——玉米、大米和小麦——就占了我们从植物中摄取卡路里和蛋白质的一大半。


Strangely, there have been few attempts to explain why we consume so few of the species that are possible to eat.	奇怪的是，几乎没有人试图解释为何我们只消费如此区区几种可食用植物。


Taste is not the answer.	口味不是原因。


Nor is nutritional value.	营养价值也不是。


The plants we eat have been enhanced by generations of selection, in which farmers have favored those with the most palatability, the greatest nutritional value, and the highest yield.	我们食用的植物通过一代一代的选择进行强化，农民不断选择最易种植、营养价值最高和收成最好的品种。


As much as one might hate broccoli, it is likely to be far tastier than most of the 300,000 alternatives.	你也许不喜欢吃西蓝花，但它也许比300,000种其他可食用植物中的大部分都更好吃。


Wild plants taste like wild plants because they still are wild plants.	野生植物味道像是野生植物，因为它们仍然是野生植物。


But why is that?	但为什么会这样？


In Guns, Germs, and Steel, the geographer and science writer Jared Diamond argues that the explanation for our limited menu lies within the plants themselves.	地理学家兼科普作家贾雷德·戴蒙德（Jared Diamond）在《枪炮、细菌与钢铁》（Guns, Germs, and Steel）一书中指出，我们的菜单之所以长度有限，原因在于植物本身。


Diamond argues that when agriculture was still in its infancy, our ancestors were remarkably efficient at identifying the very few species that were suitable for domestication – by which Diamond means not being poisonous.	戴蒙德指出，在农业仍处于雏形阶段时，我们的祖先非常擅长识别适合驯化的极少数物种。 戴蒙德的“适合驯化”指的是没有毒。


The logic seems impeccable, and it is true that the vast majority of the planet’s 400,000 plant species do contain chemical defenses (poisons) to defend themselves from grazing herbivores.	其中的逻辑看上去无懈可击，诚然，世界上400,000种植物中的绝大部分含有保护自己免遭放牧牲畜吞噬的化学防御（有毒）。


But, unfortunately for Diamond’s theory, many of our most important crops are also stuffed full of toxins, to the extent that if they were introduced today, they would most likely be banned for human consumption.	但是，对戴蒙德理论来说不幸的是，许多最重要的农作物也充满了毒素，如果它们现在才出现，很有可能会排除在人类消费范围之外。


Examples include the tomato, its relative the potato, and many other root crops, such as cassava, which contains cyanide; taro, which is full of oxalates; and yams, which produce defense chemicals that mimic female hormones.	这样的例子包括西红柿、它的近亲马铃薯以及其他许多块根作物（如含有氰化物的木薯、富含草酸的芋艿、产生抑制雌性激素的化学防卫武器的洋芋）。


Indeed, many of the plants we love to grow and eat, including chilies, mustard, horseradish, and wasabi, are attractive precisely because they are packed with potentially harmful chemicals.	事实上，许多我们现在乐于种植和食用的植物，包括辣椒、芥菜、辣根、山葵等，它们之所以有吸引力，正是因为包含可能有害的化学物质。


What distinguishes food crops from other plants has nothing to do with taste, nutrition, or whether they contain poisons.	是什么让食用作物与其他植物区分开来？ 这无关于口味、营养甚至是否有毒。


The plants we eat are atypical because of their particularly dull sex lives.	我们食用的植物因为特别乏味的性生活而与众不同。


Many biologists believe that the reason there are so many species of flowering plants is that each has become dependent on a unique species of insects that coevolved to pollinate it.	许多生物学家相信，开花植物种类如此之多的原因是每一种都依赖与之共同演化的特定昆虫种类授粉。


In other words, these are plants with elaborate sex lives.	换句话说，这些植物的性生活是特别设计的。


The more unusual the mechanism of insect pollination, the greater the genetic separation among plant populations becomes, almost as if they had evolved on different islands.	昆虫授粉机制越反常，植物物种间的遗传隔离就越大，就好像它们是在不同海岛上演化出来似的。


This explains why there are roughly 25,000 orchid species.	这解释了为何我们会有大约25,000种兰花。


Orchids are the kinky exhibitionists of the botanical world.	兰花是植物界中的变态暴露狂。


Many of them have extremely elaborate flowers that have evolved to trick male bees or wasps into trying to copulate with them, thereby ensuring that they are regularly pollinated.	许多兰花的花朵极为精致，演化为可以欺骗雄蜂或雄性胡蜂前来试图与它们交配的形态，从而确保得到定期授粉。


This explains why we don’t farm orchids for food.	这解释了我们为何不种植兰花当粮食。


Seducing bees and wasps might work well for a few individual flowers, but it would never work on an agricultural scale.	勾引蜜蜂和胡蜂也许对少数个体花朵十分有效，但不可能起到农业规模级别的效果。


There would never be enough male wasps to pollinate an entire crop; and if there were, they would soon tire or wise up.	不可能有足够多的雄性胡蜂来给所有作物授粉； 如果真有那么多，它们也很快就会疲劳或者看穿兰花的伪装。