The Bank’s most important role in development today is as a “knowledge bank” that helps aggregate, distill, and disseminate best practices from around the world.	世行在当今发展中最为重要的作用是作为一个“知识银行”帮助在全世界增加、提炼和传播最佳实务。


In this respect, the Bank’s technical assistance to governments is very similar to what private consultants offer to companies.	在这一方面，世行给各国政府的技术援助与私人顾问提供给公司的很相像。


Moreover, many of the World Bank president’s most important decisions involve economics in an essential way.	而且，世行行长许多最为重要的决定在很大程度上都是与经济学有关。


Wrong economic decisions, such as in the 1970’s, when Robert McNamara pushed grandiose, but environmentally devastating, infrastructure projects, have haunted the Bank for decades.	在七十年代，麦克拉马拉推动了许多规模宏大但造成环境灾难的基础设施项目。 这样的错误经济决定几十年来一直困扰着世行。


The biggest question mark, though, is whether Zoellick will be able to hit the ground running and implement desperately needed reforms.	但是，最大的问题是佐利克能否旗开得胜并落实急需的改革措施。


Reform number one, of course, is to ensure that the next World Bank President is not an American.	首要改革当然就是要确保下一个世界银行行长不是美国人。


Rodrigo de Rato, Zoellick’s counterpart at the European-dominated International Monetary Fund, has already suggested that his successor should be chosen in a more inclusive process.	由欧洲人掌控的国际货币基金组织总裁、也是佐利克的对手拉托已经表明他的继任人应当从更为包容的进程中挑选。


The World Bank should be ashamed that its president has not yet offered a similar proposal.	世界银行行长如果还没有提出一个类似的提议，那么世行就应该感到羞愧。


Second, Zoellick should ask why the Bank spends only 2.5% of its budget on the “knowledge bank” research function that it trumpets so proudly in its external relations materials, while it spends three times that amount on maintaining its executive board.	第二，佐利克应当问一下，为什么世行在其对外宣传资料中大肆宣扬的“知识银行”研究功能只有2. 5％的预算，而维持其执行委员会的数量却是它的三倍。


Third, Zoellick should use his formidable negotiating skills to cajole rich countries into greatly increasing the grant component of World Bank aid.	第三，佐利克应当运用他娴熟的谈判技巧来劝说富国大幅度增加世行援助的赠款部分。


The idea that a big government-guaranteed global bank is needed to fill holes in private capital markets is laughable nowadays.	需要由一个庞大的、由政府担保的全球性银行来填补私人资本市场的漏洞这一想法在今天看来是可笑的。


True, the Bank’s poorest clients have little access to private capital markets.	的确，世行最穷的客户们基本上无法得到私人资本市场的资金。


By and large, however, the poorest countries need grants, not loans that they still won’t be able to pay in 20 years.	但是，总体而言，最穷的国家需要的是赠款，而不是它们所无法在20年中偿还的贷款。


As the Bank switches from loans to grants, it can use some of its massive retained earnings to endow its “knowledge bank” function and related technical advice.	在世行从贷款转为赠款的时候，它可以使用其巨大的保留收益来为其“知识银行”功能和相关的技术建议提供资金。


But all this knowledge shouldn’t be free.	但是所有的这些建议都不应当是免费的。


A lot of technical advice falls on deaf ears, with countries listening only long enough to get their hands on Bank money.	许多技术建议被置若罔闻，许多国家为了获得世行的款项才洗耳恭听。


Instead of merely pushing its agenda, the Bank should start charging for its technical advice on a graduated scale so that more of its engagements are client-driven.	世行不能仅仅推动它的议程，而是应该开始对它的技术建议按照渐进标准收取费用，这样，它的更多的项目才会是以客户为导向的。


Last but not least, the Bank needs to play a much bigger role in environmental issues and, in general, in promoting good international citizenship by both rich and poor countries.	最后一点但不是最次要的一点就是，世行需要在环境问题和在总体上来说在穷国和富国中促进良好的国际公民项目上发挥更大的作用。


(Some of us have been proposing this for almost two decades.)	（我们有些人已经提议几乎二十年了。 ）


Of course, Zoellick could just attempt to fill the role symbolically and do little or nothing, as some of his predecessors have done.	当然，佐利克可以像他的许多前任那样做表面文章或者干脆无所作为。


Or, less likely, he could embrace some megalomaniacal and over-reaching vision of government intervention, as others have tried.	或者，他也可以像其他人那样采取某些狂妄自大而又过度庞大的政府干预规划。


In any case, let’s wish him luck.	无论如何，让我们祝他好运。


The world needs the World Bank a lot more than it needs another condominium.	世界需要世界银行，远远要超过世界银行需要另一个公寓。


Zuma Rising	祖马胜出


The anxiety over Jacob Zuma’s election as president of South Africa obscures a significant milestone: for the first time in decades, a sub-Saharan nation has at its helm a champion of ordinary people.	有些人对祖马当选南非总统的担忧，使一个重要的具有里程碑式意义的事件——几十年来的第一次，一个撒哈拉以南非洲国家将会由一个支持平民大众的人当领导人——蒙上了阴影。


African politics has long been the exclusive domain of aristocrats, soldiers, and technocrats.	非洲政治长期以来都是贵族、军人和专家政治家的专属领域。


Even with the spread of democratic elections, the region’s leaders tend to come from the ranks of soldiers (Uganda, Rwanda, Zimbabwe), family dynasties (Togo, Kenya, etc), or university professors, lawyers, and economists (Ghana, Malawi, Liberia).	即使随着民主选举的发展，撒哈拉以南非洲国家的领导人一般也都是军人（例如乌干达、卢旺达和津巴布韦的领导人），家族王朝（例如多哥、肯尼亚等国的领导人），或者大学教授、律师和经济学家（例如加纳、马拉维、利比里亚的领导人）出身。


Now South Africa, the region’s economic engine and home to its most sophisticated universities, media, and corporations, has a former goat herder at its helm, a rare African leader with the common touch.	现在，作为撒哈拉以南非洲国家经济引擎和最先进的大学、媒体以及公司所在地的南非，拥有了一位曾经当过牧羊人的领导人——一位罕见的具有平易近人品质的非洲领导人。


He’s secure enough to dance and sing in public. He speaks the language of populism, raising hopes for the vast majority of South Africans who daily endure the misery of poor housing, schools, and health care.	祖马在和普通民众打成一片方面具有超凡的能力，他在公开场合唱歌跳舞都很轻松自如，他用普通大众的语言进行演说，他为广大每天忍受恶劣的居住、教育和医疗条件的南非人带来了希望。


In contrast to his two predecessors – the saintly Nelson Mandela, who emphasized racial healing, and the aristocratic Thabo Mbeki, who reassured financiers with his strong grasp of macroeconomics – Zuma recognizes the pent-up demand for material improvement in the lives of his country’s tens of millions of have-nots.	祖马和他的两位前任——强调种族愈合的品德高尚的尼尔森·曼德拉和通过对宏观经济强有力的把握打消金融家顾虑的贵族化的塔博·姆贝基——不同，他认识到了南非几千万穷人被抑制的改善物质生活条件的需求。


“We have learned from the mistakes of the past 15 years, especially the manner of which we may have, to some degree, neglected the people’s movement,” he said in April, before his African National Congress swept to victory.	“我们已经从过去15年的错误中，特别是从在某种程度上忽略了人民运动的错误中，吸取了教训。 ”他在四月份于非洲国民大会党横扫对手取得胜利之前，如是说。


Until now, populism has been the missing note in African political culture.	直到现在，非洲政治文化中仍然缺乏平民主义的观念。


Zuma, who spent his youth herding cattle and only gained formal education while in the notorious Robben Island prison with Mandela, is refreshingly aware that Africa’s biggest problem is its inequalities, not its global marginalization.	祖马的青年时代是在放牧中度过的，他直到和曼德拉一起被关押在了臭名昭著的罗宾岛（Robben Island）监狱之后，才接受正式的教育的； 祖马清醒地认识到，非洲最大的问题是不平等问题，而不是在世界上被边缘化了的问题。


In Africa’s wealthiest nation – but also the nation where wealth is most unequally shared – a bold populist now holds ultimate power over government policy.	在非洲最富裕的国家，但是也是财富分配最不公平的国家——南非，一个大胆的平民主义者现在对政府政策拥有了最终决策的权力了。


Yet, while Zuma’s populist appeal reflects South Africa’s especially large differences in economic class, the threat of imposing higher taxes and other obligations on employers and the wealthy has raised fears at home and internationally.	然而，虽然祖马的平民主义吸引力反映了南非特别巨大的经济阶层差异，但是，他扬言要对雇主和富人征收更高的税赋和施加其他的义务，已经在南非国内外引起了人们的担心。


Moreover, Zuma has been called a chameleon, accused of telling his audiences what they want to hear.	而且，还有人将祖马称为变色龙，指责他总是向听众讲他们想听的东西。


Zuma’s turbulent personal life – many wives and his embarrassing contention during a rape trial that he avoided HIV infection by taking a shower – has invited ridicule.	祖马混乱的私生活——他有多位妻子，以及他在一起强奸审判中说他通过淋浴避免艾滋病病毒的令人尴尬的辩解——已经引起了一些人的嘲笑。


Most seriously, doubts persist about his commitment to democracy, with critics arguing he’s an old-style African “big man” ready to bully opponents and ravage the public coffers with his cronies.	更严重的是，有人对他的民主承诺一直持怀疑态度，也有批评家批评他是一个老式的非洲“专制人物”，认为他会威吓对手并与其亲信一起侵占公共财产。


Dismissing complaints, Zuma insists, “There’s no cloud around me.”	为了驳斥这些批评，祖马坚称，“我是光明正大的。


His defenders, meanwhile, point to two benefits that he has already delivered: an end to Mbeki’s ambivalent approach to fighting HIV/AIDS, the country’s major public health threat, and a refreshing willingness to move against Zimbabwe’s aged dictator, Robert Mugabe, whom Mbeki coddled out of a misguided sense of loyalty for his support during the struggle against apartheid.	”同时，他的支持者也向人们指出了两个他已经承诺过的好处：结束姆贝基对抗南非主要的公共健康威胁——艾滋病病毒/艾滋病——的充满矛盾的做法，用行动反对津巴布韦年迈的独裁者罗伯特·穆加贝的全新观点——对于罗伯特·穆加贝，姆贝基因为其在南非反对种族隔离制度时期给予反种族隔离制度人士的支持而对其产生了具有误导性的信任，因而纵容他的独裁统治。


In an Africa bereft of successful populist politicians, Zuma’s role models may come from Latin America, where income inequality is also extreme and the trade-union movement, as in South Africa, is strong and militant.	在缺乏成功的平民主义政治家的非洲，祖马的行为榜样可能来源于拉丁美洲。 在拉丁美洲，收入不平等问题也是极端严重的，而且，工会运动和南非一样，非常强大而好战。


With enormous pressure from ordinary people to deliver tangible gains, Zuma the populist will quickly face a major test: will he emulate Lula of Brazil, who has struck an admirable balance between good economic governance and re-distribution of wealth to the poor?	因为来自普通民众要求给予切实好处的巨大压力，平民主义者祖马很快就会面临一个重大考验：他是效仿巴西的卢拉，在良好的经济治理和将财富重新分配给穷人间取得令人钦佩的平衡呢？


Or will he follow the path of Hugo Chávez, a popular autocrat who seems to prefer building a cult of personality over raising living standards for the poor.	还是会走上一条雨果·查韦斯式的道路，做一个受欢迎的独裁者，和提高穷人的生活水平相比，更愿意建立起个人崇拜呢？


The stakes for Africa are enormous.	这对非洲厉害攸关。


South Africa has the continent’s largest economy and, until the global financial crisis, posted 10 years of steady economic growth.	南非是非洲最大的经济体，并且，在经济危机爆发之前的十年里，经济稳定增长。


In an economic slowdown, the country’s severe crime problem might only worsen; so might unemployment, which already tops 20% in the formal economy.	在经济低迷时期，南非严重的犯罪问题肯定会恶化； 而且，已经在正式经济体中占前20%的失业问题，也会恶化。


Zuma senses the urgency of the situation.	祖马意识到了问题的紧迫性。


He is, after all, 67 years old and likely to serve only a single term in office.	毕竟，他已经67岁了，不大可能会连任。


“We can’t waste time,” he says.	他说，“我们不能浪费时间。 ”


Yet, according to the political economist Moeletsi Mbeki, at his core, “Zuma is a conservative.”	然而，根据政治经济学家莫莱茨·姆贝基(Moeletsi Mbeki)的观点，在本质上，“祖马是一个保守主义者。


In this sense, Zuma represents yesterday’s South Africa.	”在这个意义上，祖马代表的是过去的南非。


He is part of the proud generation that defeated apartheid – and then peacefully engineered a transition to durable black-majority rule.	他是打败种族隔离制度——然后让南非和平过渡到由人口占多数的黑人进行长期统治——的自豪的一代人的一部分。


Their achievement remains one of the greatest in recent history.	这一代人的成就是现代��史上最伟大的成就之一。


At the same time, Zuma’s revolutionary generation still seems uneasy leading South Africa in a post-apartheid era that is now 15 years old.	同时，祖马革命的一代似乎对领导打破种族隔离制度15年后的南非，还不适应。


In a region that reveres the elderly, Zuma’s attachment to his rural traditions must be matched by an equal openness to the appetites of the country’s youth.	在一个尊敬老人的地区，祖马对其乡下传统的依恋，必须和对南非年青人的爱好所持的平等而开放态度相平衡。


Three in ten South Africans are younger than 15, meaning that they did not live a day under apartheid.	在南非，每10个人中就有三个人的年龄小于15岁，这意味着，这些人从来没有在种族隔离制度下生活过。


Somehow Zuma must find a way to honor his own generation’s commitment to racial justice and national liberation, while empowering the masses who daily suffer the sting of class differences and yearn for material gain.	在某种程度上，祖马在给予那些心灵每天都会被阶层差异刺痛以及渴望物质利益的广大民众权利的同时，他还必须找到一个实践自己那一代人所作的种族公正和民族解放承诺的途径。


The Closing of the Academic Mind	学术精神的落幕


LONDON – I would wager that I have been Chancellor of more universities than anyone alive today.	伦敦——我敢打赌我比现在活着的人当过更多所大学的校长。


This is partly because when I was Governor of Hong Kong, I was made Chancellor of every university in the city.	这部分因为在担任香港总督期间，我被任命为这座城市所有大学的校长。


I protested that it would surely be better for the universities to choose their own constitutional heads.	我抗议说应当让大学自主选择行政领导。


But the universities would not allow me to resign gracefully.	但大学却不允许我轻易辞职。


So for five years I enjoyed the experience of giving tens of thousands of students their degrees and watching what this rite of passage meant for them and their families.	因此有5年时间，我享受着为数以万计学子授予学位的体验，并亲眼目睹了这样的仪式对学子和他们的家庭意味着什么。


When I came back to Britain in 1997, I was asked to become Chancellor of Newcastle University.	1997年回到英国时，我被任命为纽卡斯尔大学的校长。


Then, in 2003, I was elected Chancellor by the graduates of Oxford University, one of the world’s greatest institutions of learning.	之后在2003年，我再次被毕业生推选为世界最伟大的学府之一，牛津大学的校长。


So it should not be surprising that I have strong views about what it means to be a university and to teach, do research, or study at one.	因此我对大学意味着什么、以及对校内教学、研究或学习有着强烈的观点也就不足为奇了。


Universities should be bastions of freedom in any society.	大学应当是一切社会的自由堡垒。


They should be free from government interference in their primary purposes of research and teaching; and they should control their own academic governance.	它们主要的研究和教学功能不应受到政府的干涉； 它们应当能够控制自身的学术治理举措。


I do not believe it is possible for a university to become or remain a world-class institution if these conditions do not exist.	如果上述条件得不到满足，我不相信一所学校能够成为一所世界级的学府。


The role of a university is to promote the clash of ideas, to test the results of research with other scholars, and to impart new knowledge to students.	大学的功能是制造思想碰撞，与其他学者一道检验研究成果，以及对学生传授新的知识。


Freedom of speech is thus fundamental to what universities are, enabling them to sustain a sense of common humanity and uphold the mutual tolerance and understanding that underpin any free society.	言论自由因此对大学而言至关重要，它能让学者保持人类共同情感，并捍卫支撑任何自由社会的共同的理解和宽容。


That, of course, makes universities dangerous to authoritarian governments, which seek to stifle the ability to raise and attempt to answer difficult questions.	这当然导致独裁政府将大学视为危险，并试图遏制大学对疑难问题的提出和解答。


But if any denial of academic liberty is a blow struck against the meaning of a university, the irony today is that some of the most worrying attacks on these values have been coming from inside universities.	但如果任何否定学术自由的行为都是对大学意义的打击，那么今天最具有讽刺意义的却是某些对这些价值最令人担忧的攻击来源于大学内部。


In the United States and the United Kingdom, some students and teachers now seek to constrain argument and debate.	在美国和英国，某些学生和老师现在试图限制争鸣和辩论。


They contend that people should not be exposed to ideas with which they strongly disagree.	他们争辩说人们根本不应该听到他们强烈反对的想法。


Moreover, they argue that history should be rewritten to expunge the names (though not the endowments) of those who fail to pass today’s tests of political correctness.	此外，他们还提出应当将未能通过今天政治正确性测试者的名字（虽非才能）从历史上抹去。


Thomas Jefferson and Cecil Rhodes, among others, have been targeted.	托马斯·杰斐逊和塞西尔·罗兹就包括在这些名字当中。


And how would Churchill and Washington fare if the same tests were applied to them?	如果对丘吉尔和华盛顿进行同样的测试，他们的成绩将会如何？


Some people are being denied the chance to speak as well – so-called “no platforming”, in the awful jargon of some clearly not very literate campuses.	在某些显然不太有文化的校园常见的可怕行话（所谓的“无平台化”）里，某些人说话的机会被彻底剥夺。


There are calls for “safe spaces” where students can be protected from anything that assaults their sense of what is moral and appropriate.	有些人呼吁建立安全空间，确保违反“道德”和“恰当”认知的任何行为都不会被学生接触到。


This reflects and inevitably nurtures a harmful politics of victimization – defining one’s own identity (and thus one’s interests) in opposition to others.	这反应并必将孕育一种有害的牺牲政治——即划定与别人相对立的自我身份（和自我利益）。


When I was a student 50 years ago, my principal teacher was a leading Marxist historian and former member of the Communist Party.	50年前当我还是学生时，我主要的老师是一位著名的马克思主义历史学家兼前共产党。


The British security services were deeply suspicious of him.	英国安全部门非常怀疑他。


He was a great historian and teacher, but these days I might be encouraged to think that he had threatened my “safe space.”	他是一位伟大的历史学家和教师，但现在我却可能在外界鼓励下认为我的“安全空间”被他侵犯了。


In fact, he made me a great deal better informed, more open to discussion of ideas that challenged my own, more capable of distinguishing between an argument and a quarrel, and more prepared to think for myself.	事实上，他在很大程度上拓宽了我的视野，让我以开放的态度面对挑战自己想法的讨论，更有能力区分辩论和争吵，也更能独立思考事情的对错。


Of course, some ideas – incitement of racial hatred, gender hostility, or political violence – are anathema in every free society.	当然种族仇恨、性别敌意或政治暴力煽动等某些想法在任何一个自由社会都是被深恶痛绝的。


Liberty requires some limits (decided freely by democratic argument under the rule of law) in order to exist.	自由的存在需要（在法治条件下由民主辩论自由决定的）某种限度。


Universities should be trusted to exercise that degree of control themselves.	应当相信大学有能力加以自控。


But intolerance of debate, of discussion, and of particular branches of scholarship should never be tolerated.	但不容许辩论、探讨和特定学术领域的存在是永远不能被容忍的。


As the great political philosopher Karl Popper taught us, the only thing we should be intolerant of is intolerance itself.	正如伟大的政治哲学家卡尔·波普教导我们的那样，我们唯一不能容忍的特质应当是偏狭。


That is especially true at universities.	尤其在大学里更应当这样。


Yet some American and British academics and students are themselves undermining freedom; paradoxically, they have the liberty to do so.	而某些美国和英国的学者和学生本身就在破坏自由； 荒谬的是，他们有自由这样做。


Meanwhile, universities in China and Hong Kong are faced with threats to their autonomy and freedom, not from within, but from an authoritarian government.	此外，中国和香港大学的自主权和自由正面临威胁，这些威胁并非来自于学校内部，而是来自于独裁政府。


In Hong Kong, the autonomy of universities and free speech itself, guaranteed in the city’s Basic Law and the 50-year treaty between Britain and China on the city’s status, are under threat.	在香港，城市基本法和中英50年条约共同规定的大学自主权及言论自由本身正在遭受威胁。


The rationale seems to be that, because students strongly supported the pro-democracy protests in 2014, the universities where they study should be brought to heel.	理由似乎是因为学生强烈支持2014年的民主抗议活动，他们所就读的大学应当受到惩罚。


So the city’s government blunders away, stirring up trouble, clearly on the orders of the government in Beijing.	于是香港政府匆匆忙忙地挑起事端，显然是在北京政府的命令之下。


Indeed, the Chinese authorities only recently showed what they think of treaty obligations and of the “golden age” of Sino-British relations (much advertised by British ministers), by abducting a British citizen (and four other Hong Kong residents) on the city’s streets.	事实上，通过在香港大街上绑架一名英国公民（和其他四名香港居民）的行为，中国政府最近才向外界表明他们对中英关系“黄金年代”条约义务（受到英国大臣们广为宣传）的看法。


The five were publishing books that exposed some of the dirty secrets of China’s leaders.	这5人出版的书籍揭露了中国领导人某些不可见人的秘密。


On the mainland, the Chinese Communist Party has launched the biggest crackdown on universities since the aftermath of the killings in Tiananmen Square in 1989.	在大陆，中国共产党对大学发动了继1989年天安门广场屠杀事件后最大规模的镇压。


There is to be no discussion of so-called Western values in China’s universities. Only Marxism can be taught.	中国大学不允许讨论所谓西方价值观，只允许教授马克思主义。


Did no one tell President Xi Jinping and his Politburo colleagues where Karl Marx came from?	难道没有人告诉习近平主席及其政治局同事卡尔·马克思从哪里来？


The trouble these days is precisely that they know little about Marx but a lot about Lenin.	现在的问题恰恰是他们对马克思知之甚少，但却对列宁了解颇多。


Westerners should take a closer interest in what is happening in China’s universities and what that tells us about the real values underpinning scholarship, teaching, and the academy.	西方人应密切关注中国大学正在发生的事件，以及它们对支撑学术、教学和学院的实际价值是什么？


Compare and contrast, as students are asked to do.	我们要学会像学生那样进行对比和比较。


Do you want universities where the government decides what it is allegedly safe for you to learn and discuss?	由政府决定什么能安全学习和探讨的大学是否符合你的愿望？


Or do you want universities that regard the idea of a “safe space” – in terms of closing down debate in case it offends someone – as an oxymoron in an academic setting?	你心目中的大学是否将“安全空间”理念——即在冒犯他人的情况下停止讨论——视为学术环境中的矛盾修饰法？


Western students should think occasionally about their counterparts in Hong Kong and China who must fight for freedoms that they take for granted – and too often abuse.	西方学生应时时想起他们在香港和中国的同伴，这些人仍在争取他们所熟视无睹——甚至往往随意滥用的自由。


The Education Roadmap to 2030	2030年教育路线图


LONDON – When I visited the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan earlier this year, I met with children who told me what education means to them.	伦敦—今年早些时候，我访问了位于约旦的扎塔里（Zaatari）难民营。 我遇见了一些儿童，他们告诉我教育对他们意味着什么。


For Syrian youths who have been forced from their homes and have lost everything, education is about more than qualifications or test scores; it embodies their hope for the future.	对被迫离开家园、失去一切的叙利亚年轻人来说，教育的意义远不止合格或分数； 而是寄托着对未来的希望。


Children like those in Zaatari, and millions of others around the world, are central to the work of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity, which I joined last September.	扎塔里难民营以及全世界的数百万儿童是全球教育机会融资国际委员会（International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity）工作的核心。


This commission is committed to the fourth United Nations Sustainable Development Goal, which aims, by 2030, to “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.”	我在去年9月加入了该委员会，它致力于联合国可持续发展目标中的第四项，即到2030年“确保包容和平等的高质量教育并推动全人类的终身学习机会。 ”


This goal is still a distant prospect for far too many children.	对于太多的儿童而言，这个目标仍然遥不可及。


With so many development issues demanding our attention, policymakers should bear in mind that education is not just a good in itself; it is also a catalyst for many other development gains.	有如此多的发展问题需要我们关注，决策者应该时刻铭记，教育不但本身是一种好东西（good）； 而且也是其他众多发展收益的催化剂。


As the old African proverb goes, if you educate a girl, you educate an entire nation.	非洲古谚有云，教育女孩等于教育整个国家。


Ensuring access to quality education for children, especially girls, will lead to fewer child marriages and less child labor and exploitation.	确保儿童特别是女孩获得高质量教育能减少童婚、童工和剥削。


And education has long-term societal benefits: aside from increased political engagement, educated children contribute intellectual capital and pursue entrepreneurial opportunities when they grow up, boosting economic growth.	教育也具有长期收益：除了增加政治参与，受过教育的儿童能带来智力资本并能在长大后追求创业机会，从而提振经济增长。


Tackling the education challenge needs to start from two principles embedded in the goal.	克服教育挑战必须从联合国可持续发展目标的两大原则开始。


First, “for all” means that we must focus on the children who have been left behind.	首先，“全人类”意味着我们必须关注落后的儿童。


Millions of children are out of school or are receiving a substandard education because of who they are or where they live.	数百万儿童因为出身家庭或地区而辍学或只能得到劣等教育。


According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, refugee children are five times more likely to be out of school than other children in the countries to which they’ve been displaced.	据联合国难民高级委员，难民儿童辍学的可能性比收留国儿童高五倍。


And in all but two African countries, girls remain less likely than boys to complete a primary education.	只有两个非洲国家，女孩完成小学教育的可能性不低于男孩。


Getting these children into school will require new approaches that directly address their exclusion and make schooling genuinely accessible and relevant.	让这些儿童上学需要直指他们被排斥的问题、让学校真正得到开放和重要的新方针。


Second, “quality”: Education must be effective, so that children actually learn.	其次是“高质量”：教育必须是有效的，从而让儿童真正得到学习。


For the 61 million children who are out of primary school, formal education is beyond reach.	对6,100万无法上小学的儿童来说，正规教育遥不可及。


But, just as urgently, more than one-third of children of primary-school age – 250 million – are not learning the basics, according to the UNESCO Education for All Global Monitoring Report.	但是，同样紧迫的是，据联合国教科文组织全民教育全球检测报告，有超过三分之一的小学适龄儿童——2. 5亿人——没有学到基础知识。


Half of these children have been in school for at least four years.	这些儿童中有一半已经上了至少四年学。


We must address the barriers to learning, both in the classroom and at home, by improving the quality of teaching and classroom conditions and teaching parents how they can support their children’s education.	我们必须改善教学质量和教室条件、教会家长如何支持孩子的教育，以此消除教室和家中的学习壁垒。


Upholding these two principles will require increased investment.	坚守这两大原则需要增加投入。


Last year, UNESCO calculated that governments must double education spending as a share of national income to achieve the 2030 goals.	去年，联合国教科文组织估算政府必须将教育支出占国民收入的比重提高一倍才能完成2030年目标。


This will require increased revenue from taxation and stronger efforts to collect what’s owed.	这需要增加来自税收的收入、加强查漏补缺。


Donors also need to live up to their aid commitments and target aid more effectively.	出资国也需要兑现援助承诺，加强援助的定向性。


For example, less than one-third of education aid goes to Africa, even though the region accounts for almost two-thirds of out-of-school children.	比如，只有不到三分之一的教育援助流向了非洲，而那里的辍学儿童数量占全球的近三分之二。


Moreover, at the moment, education budgets are often regressive, with almost half of spending in the poorest countries allocated to the most educated 10% of the population.	此外，目前教育预算常常呈现出累退特征，最贫穷国家的近一半支出流向了受教育程度最高的10%人口。


Fixing education investment requires action in two key areas.	增加教育投入需要在两大关键领域采取行动。


First, we need equitable financing, with more investment in early childhood care and development, where there is the biggest potential for returns.	首先，我们需要公平的融资，更多地投入早期看护和发展，这是回报潜力最大的领域。


Budgets must be focused on the most excluded children, and primary education must be free at the point of use, so that every child can learn.	预算必须着重关注最受排斥的儿童，小学教育必须免费，以使人人都能上学。


We also urgently need more transparency and accountability, so that budgets are visible and communities have a say in school governance.	我们急需更多的透明度和问责，以使预算可见、社会能对学校治理问题发出声音。


Second, we need to strengthen domestic education systems so that governments see themselves as the guarantor of accessible, quality schools for their citizens, rather than abdicating that role to outside development agencies.	其次，我们需要强化国内教育体系，以使政府自视为为公民提供开放的高质量学校的保证者，而不是自甘堕落为外部发展机构。


In particular, we should push for partnerships between government and business to boost domestic resources for education, and eliminate illicit capital flows that deprive governments of the means to fund it, such as tax evasion and money laundering across national borders.	特别是，我们应该推动政府和企业的合作以提振国内教育资源，清除阻碍政府融资途径的非法资本流，如逃税和跨境洗钱。


With these priorities in mind, the education commission will deliver its recommendations at the UN General Assembly on September 18, when the Secretary-General will receive and act on them.	带着这些重点，教育委员会将在9月18日的联合国大会上发布它的建议，联合国秘书长将得到这些建议并据此行动。


The Education Commission will have succeeded if we are able to leverage the funding and political will to ensure that every child learns, regardless of their income, location, or social status.	如果我们能够利用资金和政治意愿保证每个儿童，不论其收入、所在地或社会地位，都能学习，教育委员会就取得了成功。


Our work will not be complete until that happens.	到了这一步，我们的工作才能宣告完成。


The Achilles’ Heel of Trumponomics	特朗普经济学的阿克琉斯之踵


NEW HAVEN – Donald Trump’s economic strategy is severely flawed.	纽黑文—唐纳德·特朗普的经济战略存在严重缺陷。


The US president-elect wants to restore growth via deficit spending in a country with a chronic shortfall of saving.	这位当选总统想要通过赤字支出在长期储蓄不足的美国重塑增长。


This points to a further compression in national saving, making a widening of an already outsize trade gap all but inevitable.	这将进一步挤压国民储蓄，导致已然十分巨大的贸易缺口不可避免地继续扩大。


That dynamic unmasks the Achilles’ heel of Trumponomics: a blatant protectionist bias that collides head-on with America’s inescapable reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits to sustain economic growth.	这一动态暴露了特朗普经济学的阿克琉斯之踵：公然倒向保护主义，而保护主义与保持美国经济增长无法摆脱的外部储蓄和贸易赤字依赖格格不入。


The Trump administration will not inherit a strong and sound US economy.	特朗普政策无法从前任手中获得一个强大而可靠的经济。


The pace of recovery since the Great Recession has been running at half that of normal cyclical rebounds – all the more disturbing given the massive size of the contraction in 2008-09.	自大衰退以来，复苏速度只有常规周期性反弹的一半——考虑到2008—09年间的巨大萎缩程度，复苏速度的萎靡尤其令人不安。


And savings, the seed corn of future prosperity, remain in woefully short supply.	而身为未来繁荣种子的储蓄仍然处于严重短缺状态。


The so-called net national saving rate – the depreciation-adjusted sum of business, household, and government saving – stood at just 2.4% of national income in mid-2016.	2006年年中，所谓的净国民储蓄率——经折旧调整的企业、家庭和政府储蓄总和——仅为国民收入的2. 4%。


While that’s an improvement from the unprecedented negative saving position in 2008-2011, it remains far short of the 6.3% average that prevailed over the final three decades of the twentieth century.	尽管相对2008—2011年间前所未有的负储蓄头寸而言这已经算得上是改善，但与二十世纪最后三十年6. 3%的平均水平相比仍然相去甚远。


This is important because it explains the pernicious trade deficits that Trump continues to rail against.	这个问题很重要，因为它解释了特朗普一直大加鞭挞的罪恶的贸易赤字。


Lacking in saving and wanting to grow, the United States must import surplus saving from abroad.	美国一方面缺少储蓄，一方面又渴望增长，因此必须从国外进口储蓄盈余。


And the only way to attract that foreign capital is by running massive current-account and trade deficits.	而吸引这一外国资本的唯一办法是通过大规模经常项目和贸易赤字。


The numbers bear this out: since 2000, when national saving fell well below trend, the current-account deficit has widened to an average of 3.8% of GDP – nearly four times the 1% gap from 1970 to 1999.	数字说明一切：自2000年国民储蓄大幅低于趋势水平以来，经常项目赤字平均值扩大到GDP的3. 8%——是1970—1999年间1%的缺口水平的近四倍。


Similarly, the net export deficit – the broadest measure of a country’s trade imbalance – has been 4% of GDP since 2000, versus an average of 1.1% over the final three decades of the twentieth century.	类似地，净出口赤字——一国贸易失衡程度最广泛的指标——自2000年以来为GDP的4%，而二十世纪最后三十年间的平均水平为1. 1%。


Trumponomics has the cause and effect behind this development backwards.	特朗普经济学具备了这一趋势倒转的因果关系。


It fixates on country-specific sources of the trade deficit, like China and Mexico, but misses the fundamental point that these bilateral deficits are symptoms of America’s far deeper saving problem.	特朗普经济学关注贸易赤字的具体国家来源（如中国和墨西哥），但忽视了这些双边赤字只是更深层次的美国储蓄问题的症候这一基本点。


Presume for the moment that the US closes down trade with China and Mexico – the first and fourth largest components of the overall trade deficit – through a combination of tariffs and other protectionist measures (including the proposed renegotiation of NAFTA and a Mexican-funded border wall).	假设有朝一日美国通过关税和其他保护主义措施（包括特朗普所提出的重新谈判NAFTA和由墨西哥出钱修建边境墙）关闭与中国和墨西哥的贸易——它们分别是贸易赤字第一大和第四大来源。


Without addressing America’s chronic saving shortage, the Chinese and Mexican components of the trade deficit would simply be redistributed to other countries – most likely to higher-cost producers.	这无法解决美国由来已久的储蓄短缺，来自中国和墨西哥的贸易赤字将重新分配给其他国家——很有可能是成本更高的生产国。


The result would be the functional equivalent of a tax hike on beleaguered middle-class US families.	结果在效果上等价于对饱受挤压的美国中产阶级家庭增税。


In short, there is no bilateral fix for a multilateral problem.	简言之，多边问题无法通过双边方法解决。


The US had trade deficits with 101 countries in 2015 – a multilateral problem stemming from a saving shortfall that cannot be effectively addressed through country-specific “remedies.”	2015年，美国对101个国家存在贸易赤字——这是一个源自储蓄短缺的多边问题，它无法通过针对具体国家的“疗法”解决。


That’s not to say that America’s trading partners should be let off the hook for unfair practices.	这并不是说美国的贸易伙伴可以摆脱不公平行为的干系。


But it does mean that there is limited hope for resolving seemingly chronic trade deficits – and the related erosion of domestic hiring traceable to these imbalances – if the US doesn’t start saving again.	但这确实意味着，如果美国不重新开始储蓄，解决似乎存在已久的贸易赤字问题——以及可归因于这些失衡的相关的国内就业损失问题——的希望十分有限。


Alas, this plot is about to thicken.	可惜，情况将变得越发复杂。


Trumponomics seems likely to exacerbate America’s saving shortfall in the years ahead.	未来几年，特朗普经济学可能恶化美国的储蓄短缺。


Analyses by the Tax Policy Center, the Tax Foundation, and Moody’s Analytics all indicate that federal budget deficits under Trump’s economic plan are headed back toward at least 7% of GDP over the next ten years.	税收政策中心（Tax Policy Center）、税收基金会（Tax Foundation）和穆迪分析公司（Moody’s Analytics）的分析都表明，按照特朗普经济计划计算，联邦预算赤字在未来十年将至少回升至GDP的7%。


Trump’s senior economic-policy advisers, Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross (Trump's pick for commerce secretary), argued in a position paper in September that these estimates are flawed, because they don’t take into account “growth-inducing windfalls” from regulatory and energy reforms, or the added bonanza that should arise from a sharp narrowing of America’s trade deficit.	特朗普的高级经济政策顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）和威尔布尔·罗斯（Wilbur Ross）在9月份的立场报告中指出，这些估算存在缺陷，因为它们没有考虑来自监管和能源改革的“促进增长的意外之喜”以及美国贸易赤字急剧收缩所带来额外收益。


Indeed, the Navarro-Ross analysis attributes fully 73% of the growth-inducing revenue windfall of Trumponomics to a massive improvement in the overall trade balance over the next decade.	事实上，纳瓦罗-罗斯的分析认为，将特朗普经济学所带来的促进增长的收入意外之喜的整整73%归因于未来十年间总体贸易平衡的大幅改善。


Yet, as stressed above, barring a miraculous surge in national saving, this is highly dubious.	但是，如上文所强调的，如果国民储蓄不出现巨大增长，这一前景非常可疑。


Creative accounting, long a staple of supply-side economics, has never been more imaginative.	创造性会计——供给侧经济学的长期招牌性行为——也不敢这么想。


Therein lies one of the most glaring disconnects of Trumponomics.	这就引出了特朗普经济学最刺眼的逻辑混乱。


Getting tough on trade at a time when national saving is about to come under ever-greater pressure simply doesn’t add up.	在国民储蓄即将承受前所未有的压力的档口收紧贸易绝对是无济于事的。


Even the most conservative estimates of the federal budget deficit suggest that the already-depressed net national saving rate could re-enter negative territory at some point in the 2018-2019 period.	即使是最保守的联邦预算赤字估计也认为，已经饱受抑制的净国民储蓄率可能在2018—2019年间的某个时点重新滑入负区间。


That would put renewed pressure on the current-account and trade deficits, making it extremely difficult to reverse the loss of jobs and income that politicians are quick to blame on America’s trading partners.	这将给经常项目和贸易赤字造成新的压力，使扭转就业和收入损失——政客马上就会将它归咎于美国的贸易伙伴——变得极其困难。


Ironically, in the coming era of negative saving, the US will find itself increasingly dependent on surplus saving from abroad.	讽刺的是，在即将到来的负储蓄时代，美国将越来越依赖来自海外的盈余储蓄。


If the Trump administration takes aim at major foreign lenders – namely, China – its strategy could quickly backfire.	如果特朗普政府将目标对准主要外国贷款人——即中国——其战略可能很快会适得其反。


At a minimum, there could be an adverse impact on the terms by which America borrows from abroad; that could mean higher interest rates – hints of which are already evident – and ultimately downward pressure on the dollar.	至少美国海外借贷条件将受到消极影响； 这可能意味着利率升高——其迹象已经十分明显——最终则会令美元承受贬值压力。


And, of course, there is the worst-case scenario of an escalating global trade war.	当然，最坏情形是全球贸易战升级。


Protectionism, anemic saving, and deficit spending make for an especially toxic cocktail.	保护主义、储蓄不足和赤字支出形成了一个极其有害的组合。


Under Trumponomics, it will be exceedingly difficult to make America great again.	在特朗普经济学统治下，让美国重新伟大将难于上青天。


Crashing the SDR	撕开SDR之口


SANTA BARBARA – The Chinese government’s campaign to have its currency, the renminbi, included in the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset appears to be on the brink of success.	圣芭芭拉—中国政府让人民币进入国际货币基金组织（IMF）储备资产的努力眼看就要成功了。


Last week, IMF staff formally recommended adding the renminbi to the basket of currencies that determines the value of its so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).	上周，IMF正是建议将人民币加入决定其所谓的特别提款权（SDR）价值的货币篮子中。


The addition of the renminbi to the basket, which currently includes the US dollar, the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen, would provide China with a boost to its prestige.	SDR篮子目前包括美元、欧元、英镑和日元，将人民币加入其中将让中国获得提高其声望的机会。


More important, it would advance the government’s efforts to internationalize the renminbi.	更重要的是，这有利于中国政府的人民币国际化政策。


But it would also be a mistake.	但这也是一个错误。


The decision to recommend the renminbi’s inclusion, far from having been made on sound economic grounds, can only be understood as political.	建议纳入人民币并没有可靠的经济理由，只能视之为政治动作。


As such, the long-term consequences are likely to be regrettable.	而这样的动作可能带来令人遗憾的长期后果。


On a purely technical basis, the renminbi’s qualifications for inclusion in the SDR basket are questionable.	从纯理论角度，人民币是否有资格纳入SDR篮子颇为可疑。


Traditionally, the IMF has insisted on two criteria: a currency’s issuing country must be among the world’s leading exporters, and the currency must be “freely usable” – widely used and traded.	传统上，IMF要求两个标准：货币发行国必须是世界领先的出口国； 并且该货币必须“可自由使用”——即被广泛使用和交易。


As the world’s largest exporter, China clearly meets the first condition.	作为世界最大出口国，中国显然满足第一个条件。


The second, however, is probably still beyond its reach.	但是，第二个条件仍无法满足。


The renminbi is by no means in the same league as the SDR basket’s four incumbent currencies.	人民币仍无法与SDR篮子中现有的四种货币等量齐观。


In 2014, China’s currency ranked seventh in global central-bank reserves, eighth in international bond issuance, and 11th in global currency trading.	2014年，人民币在全球央行储备中名列第七，国际债券发行量名列第八，国际货币交易量名列第十一。


Moreover, the renminbi remains non-convertible for most capital transactions, China’s financial markets are primitive, and trading margins for the exchange rate are still set daily by the monetary authorities.	此外，人民币对于大部分资本交易而言仍不可兑换，中国金融市场也较为原始，人民币汇率的交易波动幅度仍由货币当局每日制定。


Indeed, as recently as August, the IMF was skeptical about adding the renminbi to the SDR basket, saying that “significant work” was still needed, and suggesting that a decision should be put off until 2016 in order to ensure a “smooth” transition.	事实上，直到今年8月，IMF对于是否将人民加入SDR持怀疑态度，认为仍需要“大量工作”，并建议将这一决定推迟到2016年，以确保“平稳”过渡。


So why did the IMF flip?	那么，IMF的态度为何发生了转变？


The answer is obvious: China mounted a full-court press to change minds.	答案显而易见：中国步步紧逼，迫使其改变态度。


In August, the currency’s exchange-rate regime was loosened slightly.	8月份，人民币汇率机制略有放松。


Renminbi-denominated government bonds were issued in London, and plans were laid to create new trading platforms for the currency in several European financial centers.	伦敦发行人民币计价政府债券，欧洲几大金融中心也纷纷提出建立新的人民币交易平台的计划。


And Chinese policymakers made it abundantly clear how unhappy they would be with a negative decision.	中国决策者清楚地向世界表明，做出对其不利的决定将让他们十分不快。


Their pressure paid off.	他们的压力起到了成效。


One by one, Western governments fell in line behind the renminbi, despite its practical limitations.	西方政府纷纷加入了人民币阵营，尽管其实用性存在诸多限制。


The Fund got the message, and now the fix is in.	IMF收到了这一信息，现在做出了回应。


The recommendation to enlarge the SDR basket has been warmly backed by Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, and a final decision by the Fund’s executive board is expected at the end of the month.	扩大SDR篮子的建议受到了IMF总裁克里斯汀·拉加德的大力支持，预计IMF执委会将在本月底做出最终决定。


Many would argue that this is a positive development.	许多人会说，这是一个积极的发展趋势。


Certainly, it mollifies China’s leaders, offering them a stronger incentive to continue to work within the existing international monetary regime.	显然，这能够安抚中国领导人，让他们有更大的激励继续在现有国际货币机制之内行动。


Recent Chinese initiatives, especially the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, have given rise to fears that the country intends to build a new set of international institutions to compete with Western-dominated organizations like the IMF.	中国最近的各种行动，特别是成立亚洲基础设施投资银行，让人们担心它意在建立一套新的国际机构与西方主导的IMF等组织抗衡。


The decision to add the renminbi to the SDR basket may have put that danger into remission.	将人民纳入SDR篮子的决定将减轻这一危险。


On the other hand, the move sets a worrying precedent, injecting politics into a policy area that had been governed by objective economic considerations.	另一方面，这一决定开启了令人但有的先例，让政治染指了一个此前完全由客观经济考量决定的政策领域。


Conceivably, over the longer term, China’s successful campaign could now open the door to lobbying by other governments to include their currencies as well.	可以想象，从长期看，中国成功让人民币加入SDR篮子也开启了其他政府让本国货币加入SDR篮子的游说大门。


Why not add the Swiss franc or the Canadian dollar?	为什么不加入瑞士法郎或加拿大元？


Or, for that matter, why not include the Russian ruble or Indian rupee?	或者，出于同样的理由，为什么不加入俄罗斯卢布或印度卢比？


What was once the dignified preserve of obviously elite currencies could become the site of messy political battles for elevated status.	曾经高高在上的公认精英货币俱乐部，现在成了提升地位的政治乱斗场。


Of course, it can be argued that China’s recent economic trajectory means that it is only a matter of time before the renminbi does become a match for the SDR’s incumbents.	当然，你可能会说，近期中国经济运行轨迹表明人民币名正言顺成为SDR成员只是时间问题。


After all, international use of the currency has been growing exponentially.	毕竟，对人民币的国际化使用呈现出指数增长之势。


But that optimistic assessment overestimates the renminbi’s prospects and illustrates the danger of linear extrapolation of the past into the future.	但这一乐观评估高估了人民币的前景，正好说明了用过去线性推断未来的危险。


Likewise, use of the renminbi for the purpose of invoicing and settling trade with China is bound to continue growing.	类似地，出于开发票以及结算对华贸易目的使用人民币的情况必定会继续增加。


But in terms of the all-important roles of a currency as an investment vehicle or reserve asset, the outlook for the renminbi is much less promising, owing to China’s still-tight capital controls and low level of financial development.	但对于货币最重要的作用——投资载体或储备资产而言，人民币的前景并不那么美妙，因为中国资本管制仍然十分严格，金融发展水平也较低。


Nor is inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR basket likely to provide as big a boost to the currency’s internationalization as many believe.	加入SDR篮子是否能给人民币国际化带来巨大的提振也不像许多人认为的那样确定。


Some central banks may decide to follow suit, adding renminbi-denominated assets to their reserves to match the composition of the basket.	一些央行也许会跟进，将人民币计价资产纳入其储备，以匹配SDR货币篮的组成。


But the increase will be marginal at best – some $40 billion in the next few years, according to the IMF’s calculations.	但这一增量很小——据IMF估计，未来几年也许只有400亿美元。


With global reserves now totaling more than $10 trillion, that is a mere drop in the proverbial bucket.	目前全球储备总量为10万亿美元以上，400亿只是九牛一毛。


The political reasons for including the renminbi in the SDR are all too clear.	将人民币纳入SDR的政治原因一清二楚。


Unfortunately, the risks of doing so are no less obvious.	不幸的是，这样做的风险并不那么一清二楚。


Another Lesson from Japan	日本的另一个教训


NEW HAVEN – Yet another in a long string of negative inflation surprises is at hand.	发自纽黑文——最近这段时间出人意料的通胀坏消息真是一个接着一个。


In the United States, the so-called core CPI (consumer price index) – which excludes food and energy – has headed down just when it was supposed to be going up.	在美国，所谓的核心消费价格指数（core CPI）——不包括食品和能源——在一片上行预期中调头向下。


Over the three months ending in May, the core CPI was basically unchanged, holding, at just 1.7% above its year-earlier level.	截至五月份的三个月中，核心消费物价指数基本保持不变，维持在较去年同期高出1.


For a US economy that is widely presumed to be nearing the hallowed ground of full employment, this comes as a rude awakening – particularly for the Federal Reserve, which has pulled out all the stops to get inflation back to its 2% target.	7个百分点的水平。 对于各界广泛认为已经近乎实现充分就业神迹的美国经济来说，这简直是当头一盆冷水——而最尴尬的莫过于已尽一切努力要使通胀水平回归2％目标值的美联储了。


Halfway around the world, a similar story continues to play out in Japan.	而在世界的另一侧，类似的故事也在日本继续上演。


But, for the deflation-prone Japanese economy, it’s a much tougher story.	但是对于极易出现通缩的日本经济来说，故事的内容更让人揪心。


Through April, Japan’s core CPI was basically flat relative to its year-earlier level, with a similar outcome evident in May for the Tokyo metropolitan area.	截至今年4月份，日本的核心消费物价指数较去年同期基本持平，而东京都市圈的经济表现显示5月也将如此。 对于为遏制持续19年（1994~2013）累计达19.


For the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which committed an unprecedented arsenal of unconventional policy weapons to arrest a 19-year stretch of 16.5% deflation lasting from 1994 to 2013, this is more than just a rude awakening. It is an embarrassment bordering on defeat.	5％的通缩趋势而动用了史无前例的非常规政策武器库的日本银行来说，这不仅仅是一个盆冷水，简直就是一场近乎失败的窘境。


This story is global in scope.	这个故事适用于全球范围。


Yes, there are a few notable outliers – namely, the United Kingdom, where currency pressures and one-off holiday distortions are temporarily boosting core inflation to 2.4%, and Malaysia, where the removal of fuel subsidies has boosted headline inflation, yet left the core stable at around 2.5%.	当然也存在一些值得留意的异常例子——比如英国，货币压力和一次性假期扭曲暂时将核心通胀率提高至2. 4％，还有马来西亚，燃料补贴的取消推动了总体通胀，但核心通胀率稳定在2.


But they are exceptions in an otherwise inflationless world.	5％左右。 但它们都是这个无通胀世界中的例外。


The International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts bear this out.	国际货币基金组织的最新预测表明了这一点。


Notwithstanding a modest firming of global economic growth, inflation in the advanced economies is expected to average slightly less than 2% in 2017-2018.	尽管全球经济将实现温和增长，但发达经济体在2017~18年的通胀水平预计将略低于2％。


The first chapter of this tale was written many years ago, in Japan.	这个故事的第一章是多年前在日本写就的。


From asset bubbles and excess leverage to currency suppression and productivity impairment, Japan’s experience – with lost decades now stretching to a quarter-century – is testament to all that can go wrong in large and wealthy economies.	从资产泡沫和杠杆过剩到汇率压制和生产力下降，日本的经验——所谓“失去的十年”现在已经拉长到了二十五年——展现了一个大型富裕的经济体可能会犯下的所有错误。


But no lesson is more profound than that of a series of policy blunders made by the BoJ.	但没什么教训能比日本央行犯下的一系列政策失误更为深刻。


Not only did reckless monetary accommodation set the stage for Japan’s demise; the country’s central bank compounded the problem by taking policy rates to the zero bound (and even lower), embracing quantitative easing, and manipulating long-term interest rates in the hopes of reviving the economy.	不仅使用鲁莽的货币宽松政策为日本的衰亡奠定了基础； 该国央行还将政策利率归零（甚至更低），实施量化宽松政策和操纵长期利率以期复兴经济，却令问题变得更为复杂。


This has created an unhealthy dependency from which there is no easy exit.	这创造了一种不健康却又极难摆脱的依赖状态。


Though Japan’s experience since the early 1990s provides many lessons, the rest of the world has failed miserably at heeding them.	虽然日本自1990年代初以来的经验提供了许多教训，但世界其他地方对此却令人沮丧地充耳不闻。


Volumes have been written, countless symposiums have been held, and famous promises have been made by the likes of former US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke never to repeat Japan’s mistakes.	研究论文写了无数篇，研讨会举办了无数次，还有诸如美国前美联储主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）等高人都承诺永不会重蹈日本覆辙。


Yet time and again, other major central banks – especially the Fed and the European Central Bank – have been quick to follow, with equally dire consequences.	不过一次又一次地其他主要中央银行——尤其是美联储和欧洲央行——总是会紧接着掉进坑里，并产生同样可怕的后果。


The inflation surprise of 2017 offers three key insights.	2017年的通胀意外事件提供了三个关键的见解。


First, the relationship between inflation and economic slack – the so-called Phillips curve – has broken down.	首先，通货膨胀与经济萧条程度之间的关系——即所谓的菲利普斯曲线（Phillips curve）——已经瓦解了。


Courtesy of what the University of Geneva’s Richard Baldwin calls the “second unbundling” of globalization, the world is awash in the excess supply of increasingly fragmented global supply chains.	拜日内瓦大学教授理查德·鲍德温（Richard Baldwin）所谓的全球化“第二次分割”所赐，世界上因此充斥着供应过剩且日益分散化的全球供应链。


Outsourcing via these supply chains dramatically expands the elasticity of the global supply curve, fundamentally altering the concept of slack in labor and product markets, as well as the pressure such slack might put on inflation.	而借助这些供应链的外包大大扩大了全球供应曲线的弹性，并从根本上改变了劳动力和产品市场萧条的概念，以及这类萧条状态对通胀的压力。


Second, today’s globalization is inherently asymmetric.	其次，当今的全球化在本质上是不对称的。


For a variety of reasons – hangovers from balance-sheet recessions in Japan and the US, fear-driven precautionary saving in China, and anemic consumption in productivity-constrained Europe – the demand side of most major economies remains severely impaired.	由于各种原因——日本和美国资产负债表的持续衰退，恐惧驱动下的中国国内预防性储蓄，以及欧洲生产力受限导致的消费疲软——大多数主要经济体的需求侧依然受损严重。


Juxtaposed against a backdrop of ever-expanding supply, the resulting imbalance is inherently deflationary.	再结合供应不断扩大的背景，因此导致的不平衡状态在本质上是通缩式的。


Third, central banks are all but powerless to cope with the moving target of what can be called a non-stationary liquidity trap.	第三，中央银行在应对所谓的非平稳流动性陷阱的变动目标方面都是无能为力的。


First observed by John Maynard Keynes during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the liquidity trap describes a situation in which policy interest rates, having reached the zero bound, are unable to stimulate chronically deficient aggregate demand.	正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）在1930年代大萧条时首先观察到的那样，流动性陷阱描述了一个政策利率已达零点，却依旧无法刺激长期缺乏的总需求的状况。


Sound familiar?	这听起来是不是有点耳熟？


The novel twist today is the ever-expanding global supply curve.	而如今使用的新花招则是不断扩张的全球供应曲线。


That makes today’s central banks even more impotent than they were in the 1930s.	这使得今天的中行比1930年代更加束手无策。


This is not an incurable disease.	这可不是不治之症。


In a world of hyper-globalization – barring a protectionist relapse led by the America Firsters – treatment needs to be focused on the demand side of the equation.	在一个超全球化的世界——除了由美国优先主义者领导的保护主义逆流之外——应对方案应当集中在等式的需求一侧。


The most important lesson from the 1930s, as well as from the modern-day Japanese experience, is that monetary policy provides no answer for a chronic deficiency of aggregate demand.	而1930年代以及从现代日本的经验带来的最重要教训，就是货币政策对总需求的长期缺乏状况无计可施。


Addressing it is a task primarily for fiscal authorities. The idea that central banks should consider making a new promise to raise their inflation targets is hardly credible.	解决这个问题主要得靠财政部门，中行应该考虑再度许诺提高其通胀目标的想法是不可靠的。


In the meantime, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is right (finally) to push the Fed to normalize policy, putting an end to a failed experiment that has long outlived its usefulness.	与此同时，美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）（最后终于）作出了正确的决定，推动美联储的政策正常化，终结了一个早该因一无是处而刹车的错误实验。


The danger all along has been that open-ended unconventional monetary easing would fail to achieve traction in the real economy, and would inject excess liquidity into US and global financial markets that could lead to asset bubbles, reckless risk taking, and the next crisis.	一直以来的危险在于：不是何时才是尽头的非常规货币宽松政策将无法对实体经济构成牵引力，并将过多的流动性注入了美国和全球金融市场，从而导致资产泡沫，肆意金融冒险和下一次危机。


Moreover, because unconventional easing was a strategy designed for an emergency that no longer exists, it leaves the Fed with no ammunition to fight the inevitable next downturn and crisis.	此外，由于非常规宽松政策是为了一个不再存在的紧急状态而制定的战略，因此也使得美联储没有弹药来应对不可避免的下一轮衰退和危机。


We ignore history at great peril.	我们对历史的忽视是存在极大危险的。


The latest disappointment for inflation-targeting central banks is really not a surprise after all. The same is true of the related drop in long-term interest rates.	以通胀为目标的各大央行最近的铩羽而归根本不是一个意外，相关的长期利率下跌也是如此。


There is much to be gained by studying carefully the lessons of Japan.	仔细学习日本的教训，必定获益良多。


Confronting Africa’s Water Challenge	直面非洲的水资源挑战


ABIDJAN – Water is essential for life, and yet it is scarce in many parts of the world.	阿比让——水对生命而言必不可少，但世界许多地区都面临水资源稀缺。


Owing to the effects of climate change, Africa is experiencing its worst drought since 1945, especially in Southern Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Northern Nigeria.	由于气候变化的影响，非洲正在经历1945年来最严重的干旱，尤其是在南苏丹、索马里、埃塞俄比亚和北尼日利亚等地区。


These fragile areas now need the global community’s support.	上述脆弱地区现在需要国际社会的支持。


We need to build resilient systems to ensure access to potable water for all people, and to improve water-delivery and sanitation provisions in Africa’s rapidly growing urban areas.	我们需要建设能确保为所有人提供饮用水的弹性系统，并在非洲快速发展的城市区域改善供水和卫生设施。


We should begin by expanding Africans’ capacity to harness wastewater.	我们首先应当从提高非洲人利用废水的能力开始。


With investment and proper management, wastewater can become a sustainable source of wealth for many Africans, with added benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and environmental sustainability.	通过投资和恰当的管理，废水可以为许多非洲人持续提供财富，并有益于提高人类健康、农业生产率和可持续的环境保护。


Over the past six years, the African Development Bank has invested $3.3 billion in projects to expand access to water and improve sanitation, with around $2.2 billion of that going to urban services that reach at least 17 million people.	过去六年来，非洲开发银行已经投资33亿美元用于拓展饮用水和卫生设施项目，其中约22亿美元被用于至少惠及1，700万人的城市服务。


The AfDB supports an integrated urban water-management model (IUWM) that, in keeping with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, enables communities to derive a sustainable income from management of urban liquid and solid waste.	非洲开发银行支持一种综合性城市水资源管理模式（IUWM），这种模式贯彻联合国可持续发展目标第六条的精神，确保民众能够从城市液体和固体废物管理中获得可持续收入。


IUWM efforts require a significant initial investment, and come with steep capital and operational costs.	综合性城市水资源管理模式需要大量的初期投资，之后的资金和运营成本同样是十分可观的。


Only a few African cities collect and treat any more than 20% of the wastewater generated through centralized wastewater-management systems.	目前仅有少数几个非洲城市通过集中废水管理系统搜集并处理超过20%的废水。


The remaining 80% constitutes a huge untapped source of potentially valuable liquid and solid waste.	其余80%具有潜在价值的大量液体和固体废物完全没有被加以利用。


With the right investment, foresight, and commitment, this underappreciated resource can create jobs and deliver sustainable growth.	如果有恰当的投资、远见和承诺，上述被严重低估的资源可以创造就业并带来可持续增长。


Wastewater management is thus a central feature of the AfDB’s strategic priorities, known as the High 5s, which aim to improve Africans’ quality of life, boost public health, achieve gender equality, create jobs, and increase communities’ resilience to the effects of climate change.	废水管理也因此成为非洲开发银行重点战略的核心特征。 这项被称为High 5s的计划旨在提高非洲人的生活质量、促进公共卫生、实现两性平等、创造就业机会，并使社会更能从容应对气候变化的影响。


Water will also play a key role in reaching the High 5s’ industrialization and sustainable-farming objectives.	同时，水资源还将在实现High 5s工业化和可持续农业目标方面发挥关键的作用。


In Yaoundé, Cameroon, the AfDB helped to protect some 300,000 people and their property by reducing the frequency of floods from 15 incidents per year to just three.	在喀麦隆首都雅温得，非洲开发银行通过将每年发生洪灾的频率从15次降低到仅仅3次来为 300,000民众及其财产提供保护。


And with a $40 million sanitation project, the AfDB helped to lower the proportion of the city’s malaria-afflicted population from 16% to 12%.	而且非洲开发银行投资的一项4，000万美元的卫生项目协助将雅温得市疟疾感染的人口比例从16%降到12%左右。


In Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, the $23 million AfDB-funded Gourou Basin Integrated Watershed Management Project significantly reduced flooding throughout the Gourou Basin, and improved 2.8 million inhabitants’ livelihoods.	在科特迪瓦首都阿比让，非洲开发银行投资的价值2，300万美元的古鲁盆地综合流域管理项目大大减少了古鲁盆地的洪灾次数，并显著改善了280万居民的生活。


In Zimbabwe, after 4,300 people died in the 2008-2009 cholera pandemic, the AfDB and other donors supported the $43.6 million Urgent Water Supply and Sanitation Rehabilitation Project, which made emergency repairs to wastewater systems in urban areas, helping 2.5 million people.	在津巴布韦，在4，300人死于2008-2009年爆发的霍乱疫情后，非洲开发银行和其他捐助者出资支持了4，360万美元的紧急供水和卫生设施修复项目，该项目对城市地区废水系统进行了紧急维修，惠及当地超过250万人口。


All AfDB-supported wastewater-management systems follow sustainability strategies to ensure that they enhance economic gains, benefit local communities, and remain affordable.	所有非洲开发银行支持的废水管理系统都遵循可持续发展原则，以确保能提高经济收益、惠及当地社会并让当地民众负担得起相应的费用。


These projects also help countries to harness and use waste flows, by converting sewage to biogas and fertilizer.	这些项目还通过将污水转化为沼气和化肥来帮助相关国家利用废水和废物。


Meanwhile, the AfDB’s African Water Facility (AWF) complements its project-finance work by attracting downstream investments in water infrastructure.	不仅如此，非洲开发银行的非洲水利设施（AWF）项目还通过吸引下游资金投向水利基础设施很好地补充了其项目融资工作。


In February, flooding and strong winds from Tropical Storm Dineo devastated the coast of Mozambique and had a severe impact on the local population.	今年2月，热带风暴迪尼奥造成的洪水和飓风摧毁了莫桑比克海岸，严重影响了当地民众的生产生活。


But just a few weeks later, the AWF launched a feasibility study to improve livelihoods and climate-change resilience throughout Mozambique’s Inhambane Province, where the storm struck.	但短短几星期后，非洲水利设施计划就启动了一项可行性调查，目的是改善遭受风暴袭击的莫桑比克伊尼扬巴内省适应气候变化的能力和民众生活。


In collaboration with the Global Water Partnership, the AWF is implementing IUWM systems in five African cities, including Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Marondera in Zimbabwe.	非洲水利设施计划与全球水体合作伙伴组织一道，正在包括刚果民主共和国的金沙萨和津巴布韦马龙德拉在内的非洲五大城市推行综合性城市水资源管理项目。


In the DRC alone, IUWM systems can be expected to improve water delivery and sanitation for 17 million people by 2030.	截止2030年，仅在刚果民主共和国一地，综合性城市水资源管理系统就可望帮助1，700万人改善供水和卫生设施。


The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is also tapping into the AfDB’s expertise, by providing an $18 million grant to fund Phase II of the AfDB’s Urban Sanitation Program.	比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金同样在利用非洲开发银行的专业知识，通过提供1，800万美元的赠款来支持非洲开发银行第二阶段的城市卫生项目。


This effort will help to develop business innovations for affordable and sustainable sanitation services in Africa, which could reach two million urban dwellers directly and another six million people through subsidiary projects.	这项工作将有助于催生能为非洲提供廉价、可持续卫生服务的商业创新，该计划可以令两百万城市居民直接受益，并通过附属项目惠及另外600万人。


Africa’s wastewater-management challenges are substantial and complex.	非洲面临的废水管理挑战巨大而又复杂。


But the AfDB is determined to provide opportunities that pay dividends for African communities – in public health, improved sanitation, economic development, and environmental protection.	但非洲开发银行决心为非洲民众提供能够带来红利的机会，无论涉及到公共保健、卫生改善、经济发展还是环境保护。


Improving the quality of life for all Africans will require political commitment, public-private partnerships, and robust public involvement.	改善所有非洲人的生活质量需要政治决心、公私合作以及积极的公众参与。


With the High 5s framework, the AfDB is working to bring these three ingredients together.	在High 5s框架下，非洲开发银行正在努力将所有三项要素加以整合。


All stakeholders – in Africa and internationally – must redouble our efforts to ensure clean, affordable water for all, and to support African countries suffering through a historic drought.	非洲和全球所有利益相关方必须加倍努力，确保为所有人提供洁净廉价的日常用水，并且为正在遭受着历史性旱灾的非洲国家提供援助。


We have a moral obligation to do so.	这样做是我们的道义义务。


After all, water means life.	毕竟，水和生命是联系在一起的。


Is Africa Still Rising?	非洲仍在崛起吗？


WASHINGTON, DC – Between 2000 and 2014, Africa grew at a strong clip, fueling belief in the narrative of an “Africa rising.”	华盛顿—从2000年到2014年，非洲实现了强劲增长，这带来了一种“非洲崛起”的信念。


But, since 2015, growth across Sub-Saharan Africa has weakened, and the poor outlook for commodity prices has cast doubt on Africa’s economic promise, leading many to question the “Africa rising” narrative – and some to pronounce it dead.	但2015年后，整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区的增长有所放缓，而大宗商品价格的悲观前景也让人们开始质疑非洲的经济前途，许多人开始怀疑“非洲崛起”叙事——更有人宣布非洲崛起的概念已死。


Such skepticism is, to some extent, understandable.	从某种程度上说，这样的怀疑不难理解。


The 2014 oil-price shock hit several African economies especially hard, and played a role in pushing aggregate growth down from 5-6% in 2004-2014 to just 2.5% in 2015-2017 – a rate that barely keeps up with population growth.	2014年石油价格冲击给一些非洲经济体造成了非常严重的影响，也让总体增长率从2004—2014年间的5—6%下降到2015—2017年的2. 5%——这一增长率还赶不上人口增长率。


Moreover, the continent's three largest economies – Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa – have experienced major declines in performance.	此外，非洲的三个最大经济体——安哥拉、尼日利亚和南非，表现都出现了大幅下滑。


Last year, Angola and South Africa’s economies stagnated, while the Nigerian economy actually contracted for the first time since 1991.	去年，安哥拉和南非经济出现停滞，而尼日利亚出现了1991年以来的首次实际萎缩。


The latest projections suggest that these economies will experience tepid recoveries in the coming years.	最新预测表明，这些经济体未来几年的复苏也将非常缓慢。


But Africa’s skeptics have overlooked a number of important factors.	但非洲怀疑派忽视了许多重要因素。


For starters, when one sets the three largest economies aside, Sub-Saharan Africa’s aggregate-growth rate for this year rises from 2.5% to almost 4%.	首先，如果你剔除掉三个最大的经济体，那么今年撒哈拉以南非洲总体增长率就能从2. 5%增加到近4%。


That is faster than the 3.5% rate at which the global economy is currently growing.	这一数字高于当前全球经济增长率3. 5%。


In fact, five of the ten fastest-growing economies in the world are in Africa.	事实上，全世界十个增长最快的经济体中，有五个来自非洲。


And over the next five years, around half of all Sub-Saharan economies will expand at an average rate similar to or higher than that which prevailed during the “Africa rising” heyday.	而在未来五年中，大约一半的撒哈拉以南经济体将实现不亚于“非洲崛起”顶峰时期的平均增长率。


Furthermore, high commodity prices were just one factor in the region’s strong economic performance between 2000 and 2014.	此外，高企的大宗商品价格只是2000—2014年间该地区经济表现强劲的一个因素。


Many African countries have made vast improvements to macroeconomic management, governance, and the business environment, and entrepreneurship is on the rise.	许多非洲国家在宏观经济管理、治理和营商环境方面取得了巨大进步，企业家精神也在蓬勃发展。


Even with lower commodity prices, these developments will continue to bolster many African economies.	即使大宗商品价格有所下跌，这些发展趋势仍能够支撑许多非洲经济体。


Today’s skepticism may reflect lasting memories from a darker period, and fears that Africa’s progress has not been sufficiently consolidated.	今天的怀疑论也许体现了对黑暗时代的记忆，以及对非洲的进步没有得到充分巩固的担忧。


From the 1970s to the mid-1990s, dictators ruled in many African countries, and the institutions necessary for sustaining strong economic growth were fragile at best.	从20世纪70年代到90年代中期，许多非洲国家由独裁者统治，维持强劲经济增长所需要的制度十分脆弱。


With civil wars constantly shredding the social fabric in many countries, the continent experienced decades of tepid economic growth.	内战不断地摧残着许多国家的社会结构，几十年来，整个非洲经济增长十分缓慢。


By 2000, it had been reduced to what The Economist called “Hopeless Africa.”	到2000年，非洲已经沦为《经济学人》（The Economist）所谓的“没有希望的非洲”。


But those days are gone.	但这些都是老黄历了。


Policymakers across the continent have sustained the 1990s-era reforms that set the stage for the subsequent period of high growth.	非洲决策者保持着20世纪90年代的改革，为后续高速增长打下了基础。


Although there is still much work to be done, the economic and business environment in many African countries has continued to improve, and institutions and governance have grown stronger.	尽管还有很多工作有待完成，但许多非洲国家的经济和营商环境持续改善，制度和治理也变得更加强大。


Owing to new information and communication technologies, Africans, particularly young Africans, are better informed, more engaged in civil and political discourse, and increasingly capable of holding their leaders accountable.	拜新信息和通讯技术所赐，非洲人，特别是非洲年轻人，对信息了解得更多，也更积极地参与民间和政治事务，越来越具备问责领导人的能力。


ICTs have also unleashed a wave of innovation and entrepreneurship across the continent.	信息和通讯技术还在非洲释放出一股创新和企业家精神的浪潮。


These positive trends are not likely to be reversed, and will continue to improve the economic conditions in Africa, even if commodity prices do not rebound.	这些积极的趋势很难逆转，将继续改善非洲的经济环境，即使大宗商品价格无法反弹。


After all, the region’s economic growth averaged 5.6% between 2000 and 2004, before commodity prices had begun their rapid ascent.	毕竟，2000—2004年间，大宗商品价格的迅速上涨尚未开始，非洲地区的平均增长率仍高达5. 6%。


But that is not to say Africa will be spared from daunting challenges in the years ahead.	但这并不是说非洲能够在未来多年里不必面临艰巨挑战。


Globally, the economic environment will become less favorable for African economies.	放眼全球，经济环境对非洲经济体更加不利了。


In the major advanced economies, interest rates will soon rise, and the political backlash against globalization may force governments to abandon their past commitments to development assistance.	在主要发达经济体，利率很快就会上升，而针对全球化的政治反对力量可能迫使政府放弃过去许下的发展援助承诺。


In light of all this uncertainty, African policymakers should look inward, by focusing on policies to mobilize national resources and finance their economic agendas.	面临所有这些不确定性，非洲决策者应该向内看，专注于动员国家资源和经济日程融资政策。


Those agendas should include a number of key priorities.	这些日程应该包括一系列关键性重点。


African countries need to diversify their economies to withstand future shocks better, while also accelerating the pace of industrialization across the continent.	非洲国家需要实现经济多样化，以更好地抵御未来冲击，同时，整个非洲还需要加快工业化步伐。


Governments will have to find a way to create decent jobs for the 11 million people now entering the region’s labor force every year.	政府必须找到办法为每年加入劳动力大军的1,100万非洲人创造体面的工作。


And they will need to enact policies to reduce poverty, and ensure that prosperity is shared across all cohorts of society.	它们还需要采取措施减少贫困，确保繁荣被全体社会所共享。


These are particularly important goals for Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa.	对安哥拉、尼日利亚和南非来说，这些目标尤其重要。


Angola and Nigeria need to become far less reliant on oil; and South Africa still needs to implement far-reaching reforms to address structural problems that have plagued it since the apartheid era.	安哥拉和尼日利亚需要大幅降低对石油的依赖； 南非仍然需要实施重大改革措施以解决自种族隔离时代以来困扰它的结构性问题。


Seeing these projects through will require competent political leaders who are committed to the principles of good governance.	真心实意地推行这些工程需要有能力的领导人坚守好治理原则。


Failure could result in an extended period of low growth.	失败可能导致长期低增长。


But even if Africa’s three largest economies do end up in the doldrums, it will not necessarily seal the fate of the “Africa rising” story.	但即使非洲最大的三个经济体最终陷入萧条，“非洲崛起”的故事也未必可以全盘否定。


After all, “Africa rising” need not mean “all” of Africa.	毕竟，“非洲崛起”不必是“全部”非洲的崛起。


From the 1960s to the 1990s, the “Asian Tigers” narrative referred only to Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, excluding other developing countries in Asia, such as China.	从20世纪60年代到90年代，“亚洲小龙”叙事也仅限于香港、新加坡、韩国和台湾，中国在内的其他亚洲发展中经济体都不在其列。


Similarly, African economies are increasingly differentiating themselves, and should thus be evaluated individually, on the merits of their respective economic policies.	类似地，非洲各经济体本身之间的差异日益扩大，因此，应该根据各自的经济政策的利弊，对它们进行单独的评估。


Africa’s Schooling Without Learning	非洲的校内失教问题


ACCRA – As the school year began this September, there was welcome news for Ghana’s nearly half-million students entering high school: President Nana Akufo-Addo had fulfilled his campaign promise of free secondary education for children nationwide.	发自阿克拉——随着9月新学年开始，新升读高中的近五十万加纳学生迎来了好消息：纳纳·阿库福-阿多总统履行了他关于为全国儿童提供免费中学教育运动的承诺。


He swore not only to do away with admissions fees, but also to provide free textbooks and meals, the cost of which had often remained a barrier for the poorest students.	他不仅宣誓要免除学费，还提供免费的教科书和膳食——这两者过往总会成为阻止那些最贫困学生入学的障碍。


Ghana had introduced free compulsory education at the primary and junior high school levels in 1995, but implementation had been painfully slow – and students’ educational dreams were often cut off before high school.	加纳1995年开始在小学和初中阶段实行免费义务教育，但执行情况不尽人意——学生的求学梦往往在升读高中之前就告终。


Even in 2014, only 37% of the nation’s students were enrolled in secondary school, owing to high fees.	即使是在2014年，在高昂的收费下全国只有37％的学生入读中学。


The president’s move is thus an inspiring example that Ghana’s neighbors should follow.	而总统的这一举动则是诸邻国应当仿效的一个鼓舞人心的榜样。


Unfortunately, despite progressive reforms like these, students across Africa still face other steep barriers to a truly comprehensive education.	不幸的是，尽管实施了这些渐进式改革，非洲的学生们在实现真正全面教育方面依然面临这其他严重阻碍。


In Ghana, for example, poor and rural children are unlikely to reap the full benefits of their new access to secondary education.	就算在加纳，贫穷和农村的孩子依然难以从新的中学教育政策中得益。


The situation is arguably worse elsewhere on the continent.	非洲大陆其他地区的情况可能更糟。


The issue is not only lack of access to schools, but also lack of good schools.	问题不仅在于无法进入学校就读，也在于缺乏好学校。


The results of a staggering new report from the UNESCO Institute of Statistics show that six out of ten children and adolescents around the world – 600 million in total – are not achieving basic skills in mathematics and reading.	联合国教科文组织统计研究所新发布的一份令人震惊的报告显示，全球每10个儿童和青少年中有就有6人——合共6亿人——未能习得数学和阅读方面的基本技能。


In Sub-Saharan Africa, it is estimated that 88% of children and teenagers will enter adulthood without basic literacy.	在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，有88％的儿童和青少年在不具备基本识字能力的情况下就进入成年阶段。


This constitutes a moral and development crisis that demands immediate action.	这就构成了一个需要立即采取行动应对的道德和发展危机。


Having served as head of the department of Ga-Dangme education at the University of Education in Winneba, I know from first-hand experience that one of the main problems is lack of education and absenteeism among teachers themselves.	对此曾任加纳温尼巴教育大学加-阿当梅语（Ga-Dangme）教育系主任的笔者从自身的经验体会到，主要问题之一是教育缺乏以及教师缺勤。


The World Bank, which similarly raised the issue of “schooling without learning” in a new report, has corroborated my view.	世界银行在其新发布的一份报告中同样提出了“来到学校却未能接受教育”的问题，同样证实了我的看法。


Addressing this issue requires investing more in teachers’ colleges, promoting teaching as the career of nation-builders, and encouraging the best and brightest students to aspire to a teaching career.	解决这个问题需要投资设立更多的师范学院，推崇教学作为国家建设者的职业荣誉，同时鼓励最优秀最聪明的学生走上教学生涯。


We cannot expect students to learn from poorly educated, poorly paid teachers.	我们不能指望那些从受过良好教育，薪酬微薄的老师那里学到什么东西。


We must also invest more in resources for schools and learning across the board, from scholarships for poor students to new libraries and classroom equipment.	我们还必须投入更多的资源——包括从贫困学生奖学金到新的图书馆和教室设备——来全方位地提升学校和学习状况。


With so many African governments already failing to provide equal, high-quality access to education for their citizens, this is not a challenge that they can take on alone.	由于很多非洲国家政府都无力为公民提供平等而高质量的受教育渠道，所以这不是一个它们能去独立承担的挑战。


As the continent’s population booms – half of the world’s population growth between 2017 and 2050 is expected to occur here – African heads of state will have to work closely with key allies and multilateral organizations to bring in funding and share know-how.	随着非洲大陆人口的增长——预计2017至2050年间全世界有一半人口增长都源自此地——非洲国家元首必须与主要盟国和多边组织密切合作以争取资助和分享核心教育技巧。


Fortunately, with the launch of the UNESCO report, several partners have already stepped up.	幸运的是，随着联合国教科文组织报告的面世，几个合作伙伴已经站了出来。


French President Emmanuel Macron is perhaps the most prominent of those who have promised to make investment in education in Africa a high priority.	而法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）也许是承诺将非洲教育投资作为优先选项的国家元首中最为突出的一位。


As the UN’s main educational and cultural organization, UNESCO itself will play a key role in promoting initiatives to bring free, high-quality schooling to students across the continent.	作为联合国的主要教育和文化组织，教科文组织本身将在推动为非洲大陆学生提供免费，高质量的学校教育方面发挥关键作用。


And whoever takes over UNESCO, following the election of a new director-general next month, will have a make-or-break opportunity to craft the right agenda to meet this challenge.	在下个月选举上台执掌教科文组织的新任总干事也将有机会制定正确的议程来应对这一挑战。


Currently, the organization is mired in a financial crisis and internecine disputes, and it will need a leader who has the vision to solve both internal and external problems.	当前该组织陷入了财政困局和内部纠纷之中，它需要一位具有眼光去解决内部和外部问题的领导者。


Notably, France’s candidate, former Minister of Culture and Communication Audrey Azoulay, has put both UNESCO’s internal crisis and education at the top of her agenda.	值得注意的是，法国的候选人，前文化交流部长奥黛丽·安祖拉（Audrey Azoulay）将教科文组织的内部危机和教育置于其议程的首位。


She has singled out the financial crisis as the biggest threat facing UNESCO and has stressed the need for greater dialogue with members in arrears, like the United States.	她将财政困局列为教科文组织面临的最大威胁，并强调需要与美国等拖欠会费的成员国进行更多的对话。


In her previous governmental roles, Azoulay helped launch a global plan for cultural diversity through books and introduced plans to protect cultural heritage in conflict zones.	在其以前担任的政府角色中，安祖拉协助发起了一项通过书籍宣传全球文化多样性计划并提出了保护冲突地区文化遗产的计划。


Azoulay also has called for UNESCO to treat education as a catalyst for development and gender equality, and as the best way to help combat the “radicalization of the mind.”	她还呼吁教科文组织将教育作为促进发展和性别平等的催化剂，也是协助打击“思想激进化”的最佳途径。


If elected, she has promised to put Sustainable Development Goal 4 – universal quality education – at the heart of UNESCO’s mission, with a special focus on Africa.	她承诺如果当选的话会将可持续发展目标4——普适性的高质量教育——作为教科文组织的核心使命，并会特别关注非洲。


The preamble to the Constitution of UNESCO declares, “Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defenses of peace must be constructed.”	《联合国教科文组织宪章》序言部分指出：“由于战争发端于人们的心灵，所以应当在人们心中建立起对和平的捍卫。


Unfortunately, in Africa, we know all too well what happens when efforts to construct the defenses of peace ultimately fail.	”不幸的是，在非洲我们都知道在构建捍卫和平的努力最终失败后会产生什么后果。


Islamist insurgents continue to pose a threat to Mali, where in 2013, they set fire to a library holding thousands of priceless historical manuscripts in the ancient cultural center of Timbuktu.	伊斯兰武装分子持续对马里施加威胁，在2013年他们就在纵火烧毁了位于廷巴克图古带文化中心区的一座藏有数千部无价历史手稿的图书馆。


The incident was not only a devastating blow to world heritage; it was also a reminder of Africa’s history as a center for cultural exchange, literacy, and learning, and a call to action.	这一事件不仅是对世界文化遗产的一个沉重打击啊； 也提醒了人们非洲曾是一个文化交流，文学和教育的中心，且亟待行动去拯救。


The stakes for Africa are high.	非洲承受的风险极高。


Our children are threatened not only by lack of access to schools, but also by lack of opportunities to learn, and by the loss of irreplaceable fragments of their rich history.	我们的孩子不仅受到无力入学的威胁，还缺乏学习的机会, 更失去了自身丰富历史中不可替代的部分。


We must hope that more governments follow Ghana’s example, that more allies like France increase their support, and that the new director general will place a high priority on UNESCO’s missions in Africa, which are more critical than ever.	我们真心希望更多的国家政府能仿效加纳的榜样, 更多像法国这样的盟国能增加它们的支持，而新的总干事能教科文组织在非洲的使命列为优先事务，所有这一切都将比以往任何时候更为重要。


Resetting the Africa-Europe Relationship	重置非洲-欧洲关系


JOHANNESBURG – In October, the European Union announced a plan to invest €40 billion ($47.6 billion) in Africa, a “Marshall Plan” for the continent that would boost economic growth, create jobs, and, ultimately, slow the migration of young Africans to Europe.	约翰内斯堡—10月，欧盟宣布计划了一项在向非洲投资400亿欧元的计划，这是一项非洲“马歇尔计划”，将提振非洲经济增长、创造就业岗位，最终缓解非洲年轻人向欧洲的移民。


“Words won’t convince migrants to stay at home,” European Parliament President Antonio Tajani said. “We must give them a chance to have a decent life.”	“光靠说无法让移民留在家里，”欧洲议会主席塔雅尼（Antonio Tajani）说，“我们比给他们过上体面生活的机会。


Tajani is right.	塔雅尼是对的。


Unfortunately, his approach is not.	不幸的是，他的方针是错的。


For almost 60 years, well-meaning foreign governments, many of them European, have poured huge sums of money into Africa, with little to show for it.	近60年来，初衷良好的外国政府——其中许多来自欧洲——向非洲投入了巨额资金，但收效甚微。


Lasting solutions to Africa’s development challenges require funding, to be sure, but they also demand a significant recalibration in relations with foreign partners.	非洲发展挑战的持续解决方案当然需要资金，但也需要对与外国合作伙伴的关系做出重要调整。


And Africa’s relationship with Europe may require the biggest overhaul of all.	其中非洲与欧洲的关系最需要调整。


The problem goes much deeper than money; one might even say it’s philosophical.	问题比金钱深刻得多； 甚至有人会说这是个哲学问题。


Africa and Europe have a very old relationship, marked by complexity and pain.	非洲和欧洲的关系由来已久，充满了复杂性和阵痛。


Europe imposed its system of governance, values, and more recently, approaches to trade, long claiming that Africans need to be trained, to modernize, and to emphasize “capacity building.”	欧洲将它的治理体系、价值观，后来又将它的贸易方针强加给非洲，一直说非洲人需要训练，需要现代化，需要强调“能力建设”。


This patronizing partnership has run its course, and it is crucial that we change the dynamic.	这一庇护式的合作关系早已不合时宜，改变这一动态至关重要。


Meetings like the fifth African Union-European Union summit, which wrapped up last week in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, are a good start.	第五次非盟-欧盟峰会于上周在科特迪瓦的阿比让落下帷幕。 类似的会议是很好的起点。


The meeting, which focused on “investing in youth,” put a spotlight on the complex links between the sides.	在这次非盟-欧盟峰会上，“投资于年轻人”成为焦点主题，也让人们看到了双方的复杂联系。


One conclusion was clear: the EU’s current answer to addressing migration from Africa is outdated.	一个清晰的结论是：欧盟当前的非洲移民问题解决方案已经过时了。


If Europe’s strategy to solve its migration challenges relies on money alone, it will fail.	如果欧洲用来解决移民挑战的战略完全依赖金钱，那是注定要失败的。


We are a long way from the lopsided dynamic that defined African-European relations during the colonial era.	殖民地时代的倾斜的非欧关系早已一去不复返了。


Today, Europe may need Africa more than Africa needs Europe, especially if one considers human capital.	如今，欧洲需要非洲甚于非洲需要欧洲，特别是在人力资本方面。


Over the next 15 years, some 440 million Africans will enter the job market, compared to 72 million in Europe.	在未来十五年中，有4. 4亿非洲人将进入劳动力市场，而欧洲只有7,200万人。


Africa’s job seekers will need work, and Europe will have it.	非洲的求职者需要工作，而欧洲有工作。


An aging population is already putting a squeeze on Europe’s growth, and vacancies are forecast to multiply amid a shrinking labor pool.	老龄化的人口已经开始影响欧洲的增长，而随着劳动力人数的下降，岗位空缺预计将成倍增长。


There is even a strong possibility that, in the long run, it will be African young people who pay for the care of European pensioners.	甚至很有可能，从长期看，欧洲退休者的看护需要非洲年轻人来买单。


These demographic differences underscore the potential benefits of rethinking economic and political relations.	这些人口差异意味着重新思考经济和政治关系具有很大的潜在收益。


Without migration, the redistributive policies on which European welfare states depend will be unable to withstand the current rate of aging.	如果没有移民，欧洲福利国家所依赖的再分配政策将无法面对当前的老龄化率。


Not only will finding the staff to care for an aging population become more difficult; obtaining sufficient revenue to fund social security systems will also become harder as the dependency ratio rises.	不但照顾日已老化的人口将变得更加困难； 获取足够收入来为社会保障体系提供资金也将随着赡养比的上升而日益艰难。


Migration policies that emphasize mobility are essential to support European industries, household consumption and, ultimately, the financing of social benefits.	强调流动性的移民政策是支持欧洲工业、家庭消费以及最终的社会福利融资的关键。


Because strategic competitors like China and India have already identified the human-capital potential of Africa’s youth, Europe must move quickly to attract and retain – rather than repel – African professionals.	中国和印度等战略性竞争者已经认识到非洲年轻人的人力资本潜力，欧洲必须迅速行动起来，吸引和挽留——而不是抵制——非洲专业人士。


Of the 375,000 students from the continent who study abroad each year, many will establish businesses and find their own place in a globalized economy upon graduation.	每年有375,000非洲学生出国留学，其中很多人毕业后将会创业并在全球化的经济中找到一席之地。


There is already growing competition in the US, Canada, China, the Middle East, and Africa itself to attract these highly educated and mobile students.	美国、加拿大、中国、中东以及非洲本身都已经开始日益激烈地争夺这些受过良好教育的高流动性学生。


Just as sixteenth-century Europe needed African gold, twenty-first-century Europe cannot do without the African diaspora.	正如十六世纪的欧洲需要非洲的黄金，没有非洲侨民，二十一世纪的欧洲将步履维艰。


Which other world region can offer similar market potential for European industries faced with declining demand and or subdued growth in both their domestic and traditional export markets?	除了非洲，世界上还有哪个地区能够为饱受需求下降和/或国内和传统出口市场增长纷纷放缓之苦的欧洲国家提供类似的市场潜力？


That is why it is more important than ever that Europe not engage in an administrative bean-counting exercise, in which other economies will always appear stronger.	因此，对欧洲来说，欧洲切不可陷入政治算计，在这方面它争不过其他经济体。


Instead, the EU should commit to mutually beneficial employment schemes that maximize the strengths of people and cultures on both continents, notably through skills transfer.	相反，欧洲应该致力于互惠共赢的就业机制，从而实现两大洲人员和文化优势最大化，最主要的就是要通过技能转移实现。


Europe’s recognition of its need for Africa is a necessary paradigm shift, leading, one hopes, to reasoned collaboration.	欧洲承认其对非洲的需要是必不可少的范式转变，我们希望，这能够带来理性的合作。


In an increasingly uncertain world, Africa and Europe can set the foundations for a smarter partnership by changing the basis of their cooperation.	在一个日益不确定的世界中，非洲和欧洲能够通过改变合作基础，为更加明智的伙伴关系奠定基础。


Failure to do so will be costly.	如果无法实现这一点，代价将相当高昂。


But most of that cost will be borne by Europe.	但大部分代价都会由欧洲来承担。


With alternative partners already courting their talent, it is not Africa that will be hurt the most by the missed opportunity.	其他合作伙伴早已开始追逐人才，失去机会影响最大的并不是非洲。


Gender Equity for Africa’s Scientists	非洲科学家的性别平等


KIGALI – A girl in Ethiopia could grow up to engineer a new method for improving agricultural yields, if only she could meet the right mentor.	基加利——一位埃塞俄比亚女孩只要能找到合适的导师，长大就可以设计出提高农作物产量的新方法。


A young woman in Malawi has ideas for new cancer treatments, but will never apply them if she is pushed out of school.	一位马拉维青年女性有治疗癌症的新想法，但如果被迫离校将永远无法付诸实施。


And a girl in Rwanda has all the skills to create a mathematical model to mitigate droughts; all she needs is a research grant to help her pay for college.	而一位卢旺达女孩掌握了创造数学模型缓解干旱的所有技能; 她需要的仅仅是一笔研究捐款来帮助她上大学。


There is a global gender imbalance in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics – the so-called STEM disciplines.	在科学、技术、工程和数学领域都存在着全球性别失衡现象——这就是所谓的STEM法则。


But in Africa, this imbalance is doing more than threatening individual futures.	但在非洲，不仅是个人未来正受到这种失衡的威胁。


It is also depriving the continent of talents and contributions needed to drive development and progress.	它还剥夺了推动这块大陆发展和进步所需的人才和贡献。


A 2011 African Development Bank report finds that “getting women into science and technology ultimately promises to benefit society as a whole.”	2011年一份非洲开发银行的报告显示“让女性参与科学和技术最终有利于整个社会。 ”


Gender equity in STEM is achievable, and many African scholars are showing the world how to do it.	科学、技术、工程和数学领域的性别平等可以实现，许多非洲学者正在向世界展示他们如何以身作则。


But they need help, and programs that offer scholarships and support are among the best ways to achieve parity in the sciences.	但他们需要帮助，而提供奖学金和支持的相关计划是实现科学平等的最佳方式。


The causes of Africa’s STEM gender imbalance are often compared to a leaky pipe: girls start out with interest and aptitude, but drop out of the disciplines at various points in their education.	非洲在科学、技术、工程和数学领域失衡的原因往往被比作一根漏水的水管：女孩开始时充满了兴趣和天赋，但却在教育的各个阶段被迫退学。


Early data from a Mastercard Foundation initiative aimed at reversing these trends show that a comprehensive approach to plugging the leaks can make a difference.	来自万事达基金会旨在扭转上述趋势行动的早期数据表明全面采取措施来堵住漏洞能够使整个局面得到改观。


Success begins with acknowledging that gender equity in STEM matters.	承认科学、技术、工程和数学领域存在的性别平等问题是成功的开始。


“Science needs us” is how Armanda Kouassi, an industrial engineer and former Mastercard Foundation scholar, puts it.	“科学需要我们”是前万事达基金会学者兼工业工程师阿曼达·库瓦希的言辞。


“With different ideas and perspectives come better solutions and thinking that can move scientific innovations forward and benefit the whole of Africa.”	“不同的理念和视角可以带来更好方案和思维，从而推动科学创新向前发展并惠及整个非洲。 ”


Kouassi is right.	库瓦希说的完全正确。


Africa cannot afford to squander its young, female talent.	非洲承受不起浪费年轻女性人才的损失。


Sub-Saharan Africa faces a shortfall of some 2.5 million engineers, technologists, mathematicians, and scientists.	撒哈拉以南非洲面临高达250万名工程师、技术人员、数学家和科学家的短缺。


This dearth of expertise threatens a number of Sustainable Development Goals, such as food security, health care, clean water and sanitation, energy, and infrastructure.	这种专业知识的缺乏可能威胁几项可持续发展目标的实现，例如粮食安全、医疗卫生、清洁饮水、卫生设备以及能源和基础设施。


Removing gender barriers to STEM requires African governments to make equity in the sciences a priority.	消除科学、技术、工程和数学领域的性别障碍需要非洲政府优先关注科学平等问题。


Nowhere is this happening more successfully than in Rwanda, where our collective experience has helped more than 1,250 girls and young women excel in STEM disciplines.	在这方面卢旺达做得最为成功，我们的集体经验已经帮助超过1，250名女孩儿和青年女性在上述学科领域取得优异的成绩。


The African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), in Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, is one of these agents of change.	位于卢旺达首都基加利的非洲数学科学研究所是这场变革的推动力量之一。


The school believes that the next Einstein could be an African woman, an educational approach that informs its comprehensive strategy to plug leaks in the STEM development pipeline.	该校认为下一个爱因斯坦可能是一位非洲女性，这种教育方法反映了其堵住科学、技术、工程和数学领域发展渠道漏洞的全方位战略。


AIMS’s innovative approach includes helping governments train teachers, ensure that female students are not vastly outnumbered in their classrooms, support students who are mothers, and engage with industry leaders to help graduates succeed in their careers.	非洲数学科学研究所的创新方法包括协助政府培训教师，确保课堂上有一定数量的女生、支持已经身为人母的女性并同时与行业领袖合作帮助毕业生取得事业上的成功。


To attract more female students, 30% of the school’s scholarships are reserved for female applicants, and the school aspires to reach 50% in the near future.	为吸引更多女性学生，该校将30%的奖学金预留给女性申请者，而学校希望这一比例能在不久的将来达到50%。


Similarly, Carnegie Mellon University Africa (CMU-Africa), also in Kigali, is championing change by allocating 30% of its scholarships to young women.	同样设在基加利的非洲卡内基梅隆大学（CMU-Africa）正在通过将30%的奖学金分配给年轻女性来推动变革的发生。


These commitments will have a positive effect on the entire institution, as CMU-Africa seeks to increase dramatically enrollment of female scientists.	上述举措将对整个教育体制产生积极的影响，因为非洲卡内基梅隆大学正在积极采取措施大幅提高女性科学人才的入学率。


Finally, the Forum for African Women Educationalists (FAWE) in Rwanda has funded the education of 1,200 girls enrolled at the country’s top-performing secondary schools specializing in STEM subjects.	最后，卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛（FAWE）已经资助了在该国优秀高中学习科学、技术、工程和数学等学科领域的1，200名女性学生接受教育。


Of these students, an estimated 70% are expected to study science at the university level.	在这些学生中，估计有70%有望考上大学学习理科专业。


Despite these positive developments, quotas alone will not achieve parity.	尽管事态出现了这些积极的进展，但单纯依靠配额仍无法达到平等的目的。


To make lasting gains, opportunities outside the classroom are also needed.	需要课堂以外的机会才能获得持久的收益。


At FAWE Rwanda, a program called Tuseme (a Swahili word meaning “let’s speak out”) offers girls leadership training through drama, song, and creative arts to teach presentation, negotiation, and decision-making skills.	在卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛，一个名叫Tuseme的项目（这个斯瓦希里语单词的意思是“让我们公开表达”）通过戏剧、歌唱以及创意艺术来训练女孩的领导能力，并教会她们掌握演讲、谈判和决策技术。


FAWE Rwanda also works with teachers to develop gender-responsive pedagogical methods.	卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛还与教师合作开发以性别特点为基础的教学方式。


Likewise, at CMU-Africa, scholars are invited to participate in the university’s Meeting of the Minds Symposium, an annual global gathering for undergraduates to showcase their work to a wider audience of faculty, students, government officials, and industry representatives.	同样，非洲卡内基梅隆大学学者应邀参与学校的思想研讨会，这是一年一度的全球本科生聚会，本科生们在这次研讨会上面向教职员工、学生、政府官员和行业代表展示他们所取得的成绩。


And, the Next Einstein Forum, a select program at AIMS that recognizes Africa’s best young scientists and technologists – of which 40% are women – provides emerging innovators with an opportunity to lead their own research while inspiring the next generation of scientific thinkers.	另外，非洲数学科学研究所的精选项目下一个爱因斯坦论坛负责选拔非洲最高水平的青年科学家和技术工作者——其中有40%是女性——为正在打拼的创业者提供领导自己研究的机会，同时激励下一代科学思想家。


Inequalities faced by girls and young women in African education cannot be erased overnight.	非洲女孩和年轻女性在教育领域所面临的不平等不可能一夜间消除。


As Rebecca, a Mastercard Foundation scholar from Uganda, remembers, “When I was at my school, the boys used to call us ‘half-men,’ because if you’re a lady and you go for sciences, you’re a half-man.”	正如乌干达万事达基金会学者丽贝卡所回忆的那样，“我在校期间，男生曾经称我们为‘假小子’，因为如果你是一名女生而且学习理工科，你就是假小子。


But, Rebecca adds, “It was cool being a science student.”	”但丽贝卡补充道，“学习理科是一件很酷的事。 ”


Africa needs more women who share Rebecca’s enthusiasm for STEM.	非洲需要更多像丽贝卡一样热爱科学、技术、工程和数学学科的女性。


To ensure that science remains appealing to girls, schools, governments, and industries must cooperate to educate teachers and mentors, and allocate funding to close the gender gap.	为确保科学对女性的吸引力，学校、政府及各行各业都必须齐心协力教育教师和辅导员，同时拨款弥补性别差距。


As Miranda, another Mastercard Foundation scholar, recently observed, “As we try to find new innovations and inventions to drive the economy, I believe that math and science is at the forefront of that progress.”	另一位万事达基金会学者米兰达最近指出，“当我们想找到新的创造和发明来推动经济发展时，我相信数学和科学处在进步的前沿位置。


As professionals working to improve African education, we couldn’t agree more.	”作为竭尽全力改善非洲教育的专业人士，她的观点我完全同意。


Liberal Democracy in Africa Can Wait	非洲自由民主可以等


YAOUNDÉ – Africa’s policymakers understand that strong economic and political leadership is essential to growth and stability.	雅温得—非洲决策者明白，强大的经济和政治领导是增长和稳定的关键。


For years, African economies have fared better than expected, owing to a commitment to improving governance.	多年来，非洲经济表现一直好于预期，这便是致力于改善治理的结果。


The question now is how to sustain the momentum.	现在的问题是如何保持这一势头。


Current strategies do not provide an adequate answer.	当前的战略没有提供充分的答案。


Although leaders at a recent African Economic Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, committed to keeping governance reforms at the top of Africa’s agenda, they offered no blueprint.	在最近的埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴非洲经济会议上，领导人承诺继续将治理改革列为非洲日程的重中之重，但他们并没有给出路线图。


From my perspective, this void presents an opportunity to consider new governance paradigms, including those that borrow from two commonly discussed models: the “Washington Consensus” and the “Beijing Model.”	从我的角度看，这一空白是一次思考新治理范式的机会，包括那些借鉴两大热门模式——“华盛顿共识”和“北京模式”的范式。


Development practitioners have long debated which model offers the best framework for reform.	长期以来，发展实践家一直在争论那种模式是最好的改革框架。


Put simply, “governance” refers to a dynamic framework of rules, structures, and processes that help a government manage its economic, political, and administrative affairs.	简言之，“治理”指的是一个动态规则、结构和过程框架，以帮助政府管理经济、政治和行政事务。


But which principles a government focuses on varies by approach.	但对于政府应该注重哪些原则，不同的方法有不同的看法。


The model championed by the West places a premium on human rights and democracy, while the one advocated by China is more concerned with political stability and economic growth.	西方所领衔的模式优先关注人权和民主，而中国所主推的模式更关注政治稳定和经济增长。


Since the election of President Donald Trump, the United States, which remains one of Africa’s top donors, has focused more on the principles China favors – like political stability, trade, and counterterrorism – than on human rights.	自特朗普当选总统以来，仍然是非洲首要捐助国的美国，开始更加注重中国所中意的原则——如政治稳定、贸易和反恐——而非人权。


The rationale is that the Beijing Model is better for Africa in the short and medium term.	原因在于北京模式在短期和中期对非洲更有利。


And, while it might not be popular to admit, Trump has a point.	尽管承认这一点未必讨好，但特朗普不无道理。


Simply put, food, shelter, health, and good sanitation are more relevant for most Africans than the right to vote.	简言之，粮食、住所、健康和良好的卫生设施对于大部分非洲人来说要比投票权更加重要。


Moreover, only a moderately wealthy population, with a healthy middle class, can adequately demand the rights that democracy provides.	此外，只有当人口比较富裕，并形成了一个健康的中产阶级时，才能充分地要求民主所提供的权利。


Paradoxically, the fastest way to build a strong middle class in Africa would be to move toward the hierarchy of principles that China’s model promotes.	讽刺的是，在非洲构建强大中产阶级的最佳方式便是在各个层面采取中国模式所推行的原则。


For Africa to reorient its governance approach, and embrace a post-Washington Consensus, its leaders must commit to improving institutional effectiveness and economic management.	对非洲来说，调整治理方针、接受后华盛顿共识需要其领导人致力于改善机构效率和经济管理。


The first set of reforms would involve establishing clear lines of sovereignty with international partners.	第一组改革应该包括与国际合作伙伴划定明确的主权边界。


Africa’s relationship with Western donors, for example, has historically placed individual rights over national rights.	比如，非洲与西方捐助国的关系，在历史上将个体权利置于国家权利之上。


But in my view, individual rights should not supersede sovereign ones.	但在我看来，个体权利不应该超越主权权利。


Punishing entire countries for laws that affect a minority is counterproductive.	因为影响少数人的法律而惩罚整个国家效果会适得其反。


An example of such collective punishment occurred in Uganda in 2014, when the World Bank froze some $90 million in loans following the government’s enactment of legislation criminalizing homosexuality.	这种集体惩罚的一个例子发生在2014年的乌干达，因为乌干达政府实施了同性恋入罪的立法，世界银行冻结了约9,000万美元贷款。


As a Ugandan government spokesman said at the time, the bank “should not blackmail its members” to adopt Western values.	当时，乌干达政府发言人表示，世界银行“不应该绑架其成员”接受西方价值观。


Yet, when governance models are judged solely through the lens of the Washington Consensus, there is very little alternative.	但是，当治理模式完全以华盛顿共识的标准来评判时，就几乎别无选择。


Along the same lines, the second set of reforms pertains to prioritizing economic rights over political rights.	同时，第二组改革优先考虑经济权利而非政治权利。


For example, politicians who manage an economy well should not be subject to term limits.	比如，管理经济的政客不应该有任期限制。


Neither Singapore nor China is a democracy; but leaders in both countries have used their political power to improve living standards.	不管是新加坡还是中国，都不是民主国家； 但两国领导人运用他们的政治权力去改善生活水平。


Forcing leaders to step down in the middle of economic reforms seems counterproductive.	在经济改革进行中期迫使领导人下台可能起到适得其反的效果。


These are not far-fetched ideas.	这些都不是牵强附会。


Today, leaders in Rwanda, which is widely considered an African success story, have improved stability by moving away from the Washington Consensus approach to governance.	如今，在被广泛认为是非洲成功故事之一的卢旺达，领导人通过放弃华盛顿共识的治理方针，成功改善了稳定。


Politically, Rwanda is strong, disciplined, and organized, but it is not liberal.	从政治上看，卢旺达强大、有组织、有纪律，但不自由。


The landslide reelection of President Paul Kagame last year had more to do with power than democracy.	总统卡加梅在去年的大选中以压倒性优势连任与其说源自民主，不如说源自权力。


Although Kagame remains popular, his government was criticized for stifling free speech and human rights in the run-up to the vote.	尽管卡加梅保持着很高的支持率，但他的政府被批在选举期间扼杀言论自由、压迫人权。


The conclusion I draw is not that human rights don’t matter, but that political discipline and imperfect forms of democracy are acceptable if the tradeoff is sustained progress in economic and institutional governance.	我从中得出的结论不是人权不重要，而是政治纪律和不完美的民主形式，在面临经济和机构治理持续改善的权衡面前也是可接受的。


We should be intellectually honest and call a spade a spade.	我们应该在理智上保持坦诚，实话实说。


Rwandans should not be ashamed to value economic and administrative strength more than fair elections.	卢旺达人民不必因为重视经济和行政强势甚于公平选举而感到羞愧。


The question for other African states seeking to reform their governance models, then, is how much of Rwanda’s approach to emulate.	因此，其他非洲国家寻求改革治理模式时所面临的问题是在多大程度上效仿卢旺达的方针。


Neither the Washington Consensus nor the Beijing Model has all the answers.	华盛顿共识也好，北京模式也好，都不是答案的全部。


But, as Rwanda has demonstrated, if discipline and strong leadership are improving lives and delivering public goods, perhaps liberal democracy should be a long-term priority.	但是，卢旺达证明，如果纪律和坚强的领导能够改善生活、提供公共品，那么也许自由民主应该作为一项长期的重点。


Africa’s Must-Do Decade	非洲这十年必须要做的事


VIENNA – Since 2000, Africa has recorded impressive rates of economic growth, owing largely to development assistance and a prolonged commodity boom.	维也纳——自2000年来，主要因为发展援助和商品的长期繁荣，非洲的经济增长速度令人印象深刻。


While the continent shows great diversity in the socioeconomic trajectories, growth rates have generally masked an underlying lack of structural transformation.	尽管非洲大陆在社会经济的发展路径方面表现出极大的多样性，但增长率往往掩盖了背后结构转型的缺失。


Many African countries have yet to undergo the kind of transformation that is necessary for socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable development over the long term: namely, industrialization.	许多非洲国家仍未经历实现长期社会包容及环境可持续发展所需要的那种转型：那就是工业化。


Wherever industrialization has occurred, it has reliably improved economic diversification and helped to nurture, strengthen, and uphold the conditions for competitive growth and development.	无论工业化发生在哪里，它都勿庸置疑地促进了经济多样化，有助于培育、加强和维护竞争性发展和增长所需的环境。


In recent decades, some developing countries – mainly in Asia – have managed to industrialize.	近几十年来，一些发展中国家——主要分布在亚洲——成功地完成了工业化进程。


But, despite repeated attempts, African countries have not.	但尽管也曾反复尝试，非洲国家仍未能完成工业化进程。


In 2014, the Asia and Pacific region’s share of value added in global manufacturing was 44.6%, whereas Africa’s was just 1.6%.	2014年，亚太地区占全球制造业增加值的比重为44. 6%，而非洲则仅有区区1.


With South Africa as its only industrialized country, Sub-Saharan Africa is the least industrialized region in the world.	6%。 因为只有南非一个工业化国家，撒哈拉以南非洲成为全世界工业化程度最低的地区。


For African countries to achieve sustainable development, they will have to increase substantially the share of industry – especially manufacturing – in their national investment, output, and trade.	非洲国家要想实现可持续发展，就必须在国家投资、生产和贸易等领域大幅增加工业——尤其是制造业——的比重。


And, to their credit, most African countries already recognize that such a transformation is necessary to address a wide range of interconnected challenges that they are now confronting.	值得肯定的是，绝大多数非洲国家已经认识到要想解决它们目前所面临的一系列相互关联的挑战，就必须进行这样的转型。


One such challenge is population growth.	其中一个挑战是人口的增长。


More than half of the continent’s 1.2 billion people are under the age of 19, and almost one in five are between the ages of 15 and 24.	非洲大陆12亿人有超过一半年龄在19岁以下，而且几乎1/5的人年龄在15到24岁之间。


Each year, 12 million new workers join the labor force, and they will need the tools and skills to ensure their future livelihoods.	每年都有1，200万新增劳动力加入到劳动力队伍，他们需要相应的工具和技能来确保未来的生活水平。


Industrialization is the key to helping Africa’s fast-growing population realize a demographic dividend.	工业化是帮助非洲快速增长的人口实现人口红利的关键要素。


A related challenge is migration.	与之相关的挑战是移民。


Many of Africa’s most ambitious and entrepreneurially minded young people are joining others in migrating north.	许多非洲国家最雄心勃勃并富于创业精神的年轻人正在和其他人一道向北方移民。


But no country, especially in Africa, can afford to lose so much talent and potential.	但没有哪个国家，尤其是非洲国家，能够承受得了一下子失去这么多的人才和潜能。


Industrialization alone cannot resolve the migration crisis, but it can address one root cause, by creating jobs in the countries of origin.	仅靠工业化无法解决移民危机，但却可以通过在原籍国创造就业机会的方式来化解其中一个根本原因。


A third challenge is climate change, which weighs heavily on countries where agriculture is still the primary sector for employment.	第三个挑战是气候变化，气候变化严重影响到仍然以农业作为主要就业领域的国家。


To confront the threat, Africa will need to develop and adopt green technologies, while channeling more investment into resource efficiency and clean energy.	要想面对这一挑战，非洲需要发展和应用绿色技术，同时为资源效率和清洁能源领域吸引更多投资。


With the right investments, African countries can reduce the cost of delivering power to rural areas, and contribute to global efforts to reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.	如果有充足的投资，非洲国家可以降低向农村输电的成本，并贡献于减排和缓解气候变化影响的全球性事业。


In short, Africa must industrialize, and it must do so in a socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable manner.	总之，非洲必须实现工业化，而且必须以能确保社会包容和环境可持续的方式。


Given that most previous efforts at sustainable development in Africa have failed, there is a clear need for a new approach: a broad-based, country-owned process that taps financial and non-financial resources, promotes regional integration, and fosters cooperation among Africa’s development partners.	鉴于以往在非洲进行的可持续发展努力多数以失败告终，所以显然需要采取一种新的方式：可持续发展必须在拥有广泛基础的前提下照顾到国情，充分利用金融及非金融资源，推动地区一体化并培育非洲发展伙伴之间的合作关系。


As it happens, the United Nations General Assembly has declared 2016-2025 to be the Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa.	事实上，联合国大会已经宣布2016-2025年为非洲工业发展第三个十年。


During IDDA III, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, which I lead, will spearhead the new approach to sustainable development sketched above.	在工业发展第三个十年期间，由我领导的联合国工业发展组织将率先落实上面提到的可持续发展新方式。


UNIDO has put its full support behind partnerships for mobilizing resources, and is offering a tested model for African countries to follow: the Programme for Country Partnership (PCP).	联合国工业发展组织全力支持合作伙伴调动资源，同时为非洲国家提供了国家伙伴关系项目（PCP）这样一个经过验证的模式。


UNIDO’s PCP provides countries with technical assistance, policy advice, and investments to help them design and implement industrialization strategies.	联合国工业发展组织的国家伙伴关系项目为各国提供协助其设计并推行工业化战略的技术援助、政策咨询和投资。


The program was launched in 2014, and is already being successfully implemented in two African countries – Ethiopia and Senegal – and in Peru.	该项目于2014年启动，并已经在埃塞俄比亚和塞内加尔等两个非洲国家得到成功实施。


The PCP provides a multi-stakeholder partnership model that can be adapted to each country’s national development agenda.	国家伙伴关系项目提供了一种以多利益相关方为基础的伙伴关系模式，可以根据各国的国家发展议程进行调整后加以实施。


It is designed to work in synergy with governments and their partners’ ongoing development efforts, while funneling additional funds and investments toward sectors that have high growth potential and are important to a particular government’s industrial-development agenda.	它旨在与政府部门及其合作伙伴持续不断的发展努力协调合作，同时为具有高增长潜力和对政府工业发展议程至关重要的部门提供额外的资金和投资。


Priority sectors are typically chosen for their job-creation, investment, and export potential, and for their access to necessary raw materials.	人们通常会选择能创造就业岗位、吸引投资和具有出口潜力的部门作为优先投资对象，还有一个条件就是原材料必须容易获取。


The PCP approach is designed to maximize the impact of all partner programs and projects that are relevant to industrial development.	国家伙伴关系项目旨在令与工业发展相关的所有伙伴项目和计划的影响力得到最大限度的发挥。


To that end, strategic partnerships with financial institutions and the business sector are particularly important.	为了实现这一目的，与金融机构和企业部门建立战略伙伴关系尤为重要。


With these in place, African countries can marshal additional resources for infrastructure, innovation, expertise, and new technologies.	有了这些，非洲国家就可以筹集更多资源用于基建、创新、专业知识和新技术项目。


UNIDO’s goal is to make the PCP model the mainstream approach for all African countries.	联合国工业发展组织的目标是使国家伙伴关系模式成为所有非洲国家采用的主流模式。


We stand ready to support Africa on its path to inclusive and sustainable industrial development – during IDDA III and beyond.	我们随时准备支持非洲走向包容性和可持续的工业发展——无论是在非洲工业发展第三个十年期间还是以后。


Africa’s Decade of Industrialization	非洲的工业化十年


VIENNA – In today’s interdependent global economy, Africa remains a weak link.	维也纳—在当今互相依存的全球经济中，非洲仍然是弱环。


If the world is to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, thereby completing the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, it must help Africa accelerate its development by promoting rapid and responsible industrialization.	要想实现可持续发展目标，，进而完成联合国2030年可持续发展日程，就必须通过促进迅速而负责任的工业化帮助非洲加快发展。


Africa is by no means destined to lag behind the rest of the world economy.	非洲绝不是注定要拖世界经济的后腿。


On the contrary, it could easily become a global economic powerhouse – and within the next decade.	相反，它很有希望成为世界经济的发动机——并且未来十年就能实现。


But, to fulfill its economic potential, Africa must industrialize.	但是，要想实现其经济潜力，非洲必须工业化。


The importance of this has been stressed repeatedly at recent international forums, including last August’s Sixth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD VI), and the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, the following month.	这一点的重要性在最近的国际论坛中反复强调，包括去年8月的第六届东京非洲发展国际会议（TICAD VI）和9月的G20杭州峰会。


For the first time, the G20 placed industrialization in Africa – and all of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) – on its agenda.	G20第一次将非洲——以及全部最不发达国家——的工业化列上日程。


The African Union’s Agenda 2063 also supports this drive.	非盟的2063年日程也支持非洲工业化。


The recent UN General Assembly resolution declaring 2016-2025 the Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa is yet another push in this direction.	最新的联合国大会决议将2016—2025年列为非洲工业发展的第三个十年，这是这一方向上的最新进展。


The organization that I represent, the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), has been tasked with operationalizing and leading the implementation of the concomitant program, including mobilizing the needed resources.	我所代表的组织——联合国工业发展组织（UNIDO），承担了执行和领导实施多管齐下的计划的任务，包括动员所需要的资源。


All of these declarations and commitments are an important first step.	所有这些宣言和承诺都属于重要的第一步。


But they will mean little unless they are translated into concrete and effective action that advances African industrialization, creates jobs, and fosters inclusive and sustainable economic growth and development.	但除非能转化为切实有效的行动推进非洲工业化、创造就业、促进包容而可持续的经济增长和发展，否则它们毫无意义。


The question is how.	问题在于如何做到。


The short answer is money and action.	简单的答案是金钱和行动。


We must challenge the international community and development partners to back their words with real financial commitments.	我们必须敦促国际社会和发展合作伙伴兑现真金白银的融资承诺。