Toward a Viable Climate Target	通向可行气候目标


BERLIN – Last December in Paris, 195 governments reached a consensus on how to curb climate change over the coming decades.	柏林—去年12月，在巴黎，195国政府形成了关于在未来几十年里如何遏制气候变化的共识。


But, as usual when it comes to the United Nations, the deal that was struck was big on stated ambition, but far more modest when it comes to commitments to concrete action.	但是，和联合国的其他事项一样，所达成的协议目标宏大，但落到实际行动义务（commitment）上就显得平庸了许多。


The Paris climate agreement includes a pledge to keep warming “well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”	巴黎气候协定包括一个将全球变暖幅度限制在“显著低于前工业化水平以上2摄氏度”的承诺（pledge）。


Furthermore, at the request of the world’s most vulnerable countries, language was added promising “to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5º.”	此外，在全球最脆弱国家的要求下，还加上了承诺“采取行动将升温幅度限制在1. 5℃”的字句。


The trouble is that these aspirations are not matched by the commitments called for by the treaty.	麻烦在于这些愿望并没有条约所呼吁的义务与之匹配。


Instead, the agreement’s system of voluntary mitigation pledges will allow global emissions to rise until 2030, likely leading to a warming of 3-3.5º by 2100.	相反，该协议的自愿遏制承诺制度允许全球排放继续增长直到2030年，这可能导致2100年全球变暖3—3.


This looks like a prime example of inconsistency in policymaking.	5℃。 这堪称决策不一致的经典例子。


The problem lies, first and foremost, with the goals spelled out in the agreement.	问题首先在于协定所包含的目标。 将变暖幅度限制在1.


Targets like limiting warming to 1.5º or 2º cannot effectively guide policymakers and the public.	5或2℃无法为决策者和公众提供有效指引。


They address the whole Earth system, not individual actors or governments.	它们解决的是整个地球系统的问题，而不是个别行动方或政府的问题。


By failing to state explicitly what individual countries are required to deliver, it allows leaders to support targets that seem ambitious, while pursuing mitigation efforts that are in reality insignificant.	协定并未明确要求个体国家交出怎样的成绩，领导人纷纷支持看似宏大的目标，但所追求的现实遏制措施微不足道。


No scientific formula can describe how to share the burden of global mitigation equitably among countries, leaving every government able to declare confidently that its policies are in line with any given temperature target.	没有科学公式可以描述如何在各个国家之间公平分担全球遏制气候变化的负担，每个国家的政府都可以自信地宣布它的政策符合任何给定的气温目标。


An evaluation of whether the goals are being attained can be carried out only on a global level, and thus no country can be held responsible if the target is missed.	对目标是否达成的评估只能在全球层面进行，因此如果目标没有达成，你也不可能要求哪个国家来负责。


As a result, every UN climate summit concludes with expressions of grave concern that the overall efforts are inadequate.	因此，每一次联合国气候峰会都会以严重关切收场，但总体措施永远不够充分。


This has to change.	必须改变这一点。


The conventional approach is to call for more consistency between talk, decisions, and actions.	传统方法是要求谈判、决定和行动之间表现出更大的一致性。


But inconsistency is inherent to policymaking.	但不一致是决策的内在特征。


Diplomats and politicians treat talk, decisions, and actions independently, in order to satisfy the demands of a diverse set of stakeholders and to maximize external support for their organizations.	外交官和政客对立对待谈判、决定和行动，这样是为了满足各种相关利益者的要求，并未各自的组织赢得最大的外部支持。


In climate policy, most governments choose a progressive stance while talking and deciding, but a more cautious one when it comes time to act.	在气候政策上，大部分政府在谈判和决定阶段选择进步立场，但在落实行动时表现得更加谨慎。


Ambitious UN climate targets have not served as a prerequisite, but as a substitute for action.	宏大的联合国气候目标并不是先决条件，反倒沦为了行动的替代品。


This is no reason to give up on climate targets altogether.	这绝非一股脑放弃气候目标的理由。


Complex long-term policymaking works only if ambitious goals are in place.	复杂的长期决策只有在具备宏大目标时才能运转。


But targets cannot be vague aspirational goals; they must be precise, evaluable, attainable, and motivating.	但目标不能是模糊的目的，而必须精确、可评估、可实现、具有激发性。


The Paris agreement itself offers one possible approach.	巴黎协定本身提供了一种可能的方法。


Hidden behind a vaguely defined formula, a third mitigation target has been introduced: reaching zero emissions in the second half of the century.	第三个遏制目标隐藏在定义模糊的公式中：在本世纪下半叶实现零排放。


A target of zero emissions tells policymakers and the public precisely what must be done, and it directly addresses human activity.	零排放的目标精确地告诉决策者和公众必须做什么，也直接决定了人类行动。


Every country’s emissions must peak, decline, and eventually reach zero.	所有国家的排放都必须见顶、下落，最终达到零排放。


This provides a transparent system to evaluate the actions not only of national governments, but also of cities, economic sectors, companies, and even individuals.	这提供了一个透明的系统来评估行动，不仅包括国家政府的行动，也包括城市、经济部门、公司甚至个人的行动。


Defection would be discouraged because it is easy to see – and more important, to explain to the public – whether emissions are going up or down.	缺点很容易遏制，因为很容易发现——更重要的是，也很容易向公众解释——排放正在上升还是下降。


Such a target would put all new fossil-fuel-based infrastructure under intense scrutiny; if we need to drive emissions down, why build another coal plant or badly insulated building?	这样的目标让所有基于化石燃料的新基础设施处于严密监控治下； 如果我们需要让排放降下来，那么为何还要建造煤电厂或隔离不好的建筑？


A shared vision of zero emissions could even spark a race to cross the finish line first.	共同的零排放愿景甚至可以激发谁率先达到目标的竞赛。


Sweden wants to be there by 2045.	瑞典希望在 2045年实现这一目标。


The United Kingdom has announced that it plans to come up with a zero-emissions target soon.	英国宣布它将很快制定零排放目标计划。


Germany might follow, after its next elections.	德国也可能在下一次选举后跟进。


Scientists prefer exact thresholds for climate stabilization, and policymakers like powerful symbols.	科学家喜欢给气候稳定制定精确的阈值，决策者则喜欢强有力的象征。


That is why temperature targets dominate the global climate discourse.	因此，温度目标主宰了全球气候讨论。


But history proves that this does not automatically lead to action.	但历史证明，这并不能自动带来行动。


Replacing temperature thresholds with an effort to reduce emissions to zero would ensure accountability and minimize political inconsistency.	用将排放降低到零的措施代替气温阈值能确保可问责性并最小化政治不一致性。


There is precedent for such an approach.	这样的方法有先例可循。


The Montreal Protocol for protecting the ozone layer primarily addresses harmful substances, trying to accelerate their phase-out, rather than defining a stabilization target for the ozone layer.	保护臭氧层的蒙特利尔议定书主要内容是框定有害物质，试图加快除去这些物质，而不是制定一个稳定臭氧层的目标。


The gap between real-world emissions and what will be needed to keep warming below the agreed-upon limits is rapidly widening.	现实世界排放和将变暖限制在商定限度内所需要的排放之间的差距正在迅速扩大。 联合国已经责成气候变化跨政府委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）详细研究如何实现——已经不现实的——1.


The UN has tasked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to conduct a detailed investigation of how to meet the – already unrealistic – ceiling of 1.5°C. This implies a risk that the world will waste valuable time on yet another debate about lofty goals.	5℃上限。 这隐含着一个风险：世界把时间浪费在又一场关于崇高目标的争论上。


Whatever our temperature target, global emissions have to peak soon and decrease afterwards – all the way to zero.	不管我们的气温目标为何，全球排放都必须尽快见顶，并随后下降——直到零排放。


The Paris climate agreement will be remembered as a success only if we manage to shift our focus from talk to effective action.	只有成功地将我们的关注点从说转变到有效行动，巴黎气候协定才会因为成功而被人铭记。


Terrorism and Trust	恐怖主义和信任


LONDON – As the world comes to terms with the wider implications and consequences of the terrorist atrocity in Paris, an important story risks being lost in the welter of coverage and analysis: The increasingly vital role that private companies play in planning for and responding to emergencies.	伦敦—在全世界不得不面对巴黎恐怖主义暴行的更广泛的影响和后果之际，有一条重要信息有可能被淹没在报道和分析中：私营公司在计划和应对紧急情况方面的作用日益重要。


And there’s more to the story than that.	其中大有深意。


As the wave of synchronized attacks unfolded, people around the world followed it in real time via Twitter, and Parisians reached out to those who found themselves stranded by posting offers of safe havens with the hashtags #PorteOuverte and #OpenDoor.	随着一波同步袭击的展开，全世界人民通过Twitter实时跟进，而巴黎人民通过#PorteOuverte 和 #OpenDoor等话题标签为被困者提供帮助和安全藏身地。


Those who wanted to be assured of the safety of family and friends looked to Facebook’s new Safety Check feature.	希望确认亲朋好友安全的人求助于Facebook新的Safety Check功能。


Google announced that calls to France were free of charge via Google Hangouts.	谷歌宣布可以免费通过Google Hanouts给法国打电话。


Governments around the world communicated with their citizens using social-media platforms: the United Kingdom’s embassy in France tweeted information for travelers, and the United States’ embassy there provided updates via Facebook.	全球政府也通过社交媒体平台与公民通讯：英国驻法国大使馆发布面向游客的Tweet消息，美国大使馆通过Facebook 提供消息更新。


But it wasn’t just technology companies that stepped up.	行动起来不只限于高科技公司。


Ride-sharing companies get a lot of press nowadays, but when people needed to make their way safely out of areas where attacks were taking place, it was Paris taxi drivers who responded to the emergency by making their services available for free, supplementing public transportation.	如今，拼车公司广受关注，但当人们需要安全逃离袭击发生区域时，是巴黎出租车司机面对紧急情况挺身而出提供免费服务，补充了公共交通。


More and more in our daily lives – communications, transportation, health care, energy, and much else – depends on services provided by the private, rather than the public, sector.	我们的日常生活中与有越来越多的东西——通讯、交通、医疗、能源和其他许多东西——依赖由私人而非公共部门提供的服务。


These companies have become a part of the fabric of our societies.	这些公司已成为我们社会脉络的一部分。


Emergencies merely call attention to it.	紧急情况只是引起了我们对这一点的关注。


But with great power comes greater responsibility, and companies continue to find it difficult to grapple with this.	但力量越大，责任也越大，而公司仍难以应付裕如。


They have a responsibility to prepare for crises, including natural and manmade disasters, more diligently than ever before.	它们有责任为危机做好准备，不管是自然灾难还是人为灾难，并且必须比以往任何时候都要更加认真地准备。


They have a responsibility to ensure that they are part of solutions to broader national and international challenges.	它们有责任确保加入成为更广义的国家和国际挑战解决方案的一部分。


They have a responsibility, in short, to fulfill the obligations that arise from our dependence on them and from the trust we place in them, implicitly or explicitly.	简言之，它们有责任履行因为我们需要依靠他们以及我们信任他们（不管是直接还是间接）而产生的义务。


The challenge is that the extent of companies’ responsibility has become clear at a time of growing distrust toward the private sector.	挑战在于，公司责任的程度日益清晰，但与此同时，对私人部门的干扰也越来越大。


There are strong concerns about the amount of personal data we give to Facebook, Google, and other companies, enabling them to know too much about where we go, what we do, and whom we talk to.	很多人十分担心我们将大量个人数据给了Facebook、谷歌和其他公司，使它们得以获得太多关于我们去哪儿、干什么、和谁说话的信息。


And it isn’t just technology companies.	并且不仅仅是高科技公司。


There are also the companies we depend on to make safe and reliable cars, generate our energy, and mine the raw materials to produce the things we use every day.	还包括我们赖以制造安全可靠汽车、生产能源、挖掘原材料以制造日常用品的公司。


According to unpublished Ipsos MORI research that was made available to me recently, when it comes to judging a company, honesty and integrity are more important than ever.	据我刚刚获得的尚未公布的莫利调查机构（Ipsos MORI）的研究，在评判一家公司时，诚信和正直的重要性比以往任何时候都要高。


Consumer confidence is being steadily eroded by a number of factors that lead people to question the extent to which they are valued.	消费者信心被众多导致人们质疑自己在多大程度上被估价的因素所不断侵蚀。


So, even as we need companies to provide more and more vital services, from transportation to health care to evacuation plans, we trust them less and less.	因此，即使我们需要公司提供越来越多的重要服务——从交通到医疗和疏散计划——但我们对它们的信任越来越少。


That is hardly an overreaction to a few rare cases.	这绝非对少数案例的小题大做。


On the contrary, people are justifiably shocked at the steady stream of stories calling into question whether the companies that provide so many essential services in countries around the world deserve their confidence.	相反，让人质疑全球各国提供如此多重要服务的公司是否值得如此信任的报道层出不穷，人们大惊失色也不足为奇。


Most disturbing is the extent to which companies, so often stalwart defenders of the rule of law when it comes to their own rights, deliberately flout the law – heedless of the consequences – when it comes to maximizing profits.	最令人不安的是，公司在涉及到其自身权利时是坚定的法治捍卫者，而为了实现利润最大化，它们随时准备践踏法律——并且无视后果。


The case of Volkswagen continues to beggar belief.	大众汽车的例子仍在发酵。


How could a major multinational company incorporate criminal behavior into its business strategy?	一家大型跨国公司怎么可以将犯罪行为列为其企业战略？


The recent investigations into whether Exxon Mobil deliberately covered up that it knew more about the risks of climate change are similarly damning.	最近关于埃克森美孚是否故意掩盖它对气候变化风险的了解的调查也同样恶劣。


As the responses to the terrorist attacks in Paris demonstrated, companies can do so much good and be responsible corporate citizens.	对巴黎恐怖袭击的反应表明，公司可以为大善，做负责任的企业公民。


But there is an almost Jekyll and Hyde quality to them: The companies that make our low-cost clothes may produce them in dangerous sweatshops.	但它们身上有着善恶双重人格��为我们制造便宜衣服的公司也许是在危险的血汗工厂中生产的。


And the people companies helped so capably and generously during the emergency in Paris are the same people they betray and conceal information from at other times.	在巴黎紧急状况中公司如此“给力”和慷慨地帮助的人，也许正是此前它们背叛和隐瞒信息的人。


Of course, the attacks in Paris should be viewed, above all, in terms of geopolitics and security.	当然，巴黎袭击首先应该视为地缘政治和安全问题。


But there is a lesson for business – and the rest of us – as well.	但企业——以及我们其他人——也可以从中汲取教训。


We will all be better off when companies’ impulse to do the right in the worst of times defines how they behave all the time.	如果用公司在最糟糕时期做正确的事情的动力来评判它们在所有时候的表现，那么我们所有人境况都会得到改善。


We Are At War	我们身处战争之中


PARIS – Ever since the terrorist attacks in January on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher supermarket, Parisians knew that barbarism lurked around the corner, and that it would strike again.	巴黎——自从1月恐怖份子袭击讽刺杂志《查理周刊》和一家犹太超市后，巴黎人知道野蛮隐藏在阴暗的角落并会再次发动袭击。


But it is one thing to know something, to anticipate it, and another to be confronted with the grim reality.	但知道和预感是一回事，而面对严峻的现实则是另外一个问题。


On Friday night, reality struck us with a vengeance.	上周五夜晚，终于发生了复仇的现实。


We are at war.	我们正身处战争之中。


It would be wrong – even dangerous – not to admit it.	不承认这一点是错误——甚至是危险的。


And to win will require clarity, unity, and firmness.	打赢这场战争需要明确、坚定和团结。


Clarity of analysis is what we now need the most.	我们现在最需要清晰的分析。


We barely know our enemy, except for the intensity of his hatred and the depth of his cruelty.	除了强烈的仇恨和残忍的手段，我们对敌人几乎一无所知。


To understand his strategy, we must recognize him for what he is: an intelligent – and, in his own way, rational – adversary.	要想理解他的策略，我们必须先认清敌人的本质：他们是极其狡猾——并且以自己的方式极其理性的——对手。


For too long, we have despised and underestimated him.	很久以来，我们都轻视并低估了敌人的实力。


It is urgent that we now change course.	现在改变策略是当务之急。


In the last few weeks, the Islamic State’s strategy of terror has brought death to the streets of Ankara, Beirut, and Paris, and to the skies over Sinai.	过去几周，伊斯兰国的恐怖战略为安卡拉、贝鲁特、巴黎街头和西奈半岛上空带来了死亡的气息。


The identity of the victims leaves no doubt about the message.	遇难者的身份打消了人们的一切怀疑。


“Kurds, Russians, Lebanese Shia, French: You attack us, so we will kill you.”	“库尔德人、俄罗斯人、黎巴嫩什叶派、法国人：你们攻击我们，所以我们要杀死你。 ”


The timing of the attacks is as revealing as the targets’ nationality.	袭击的时点像目标国籍一样能透露出诸多信息。


The more the Islamic State is defeated on the ground and loses control of territory in Syria and Iraq, the more it is tempted to externalize the war to deter further intervention.	伊斯兰国在地面战争中损失越大、失去的叙利亚和伊拉克领土越多，他们就越有动机将战争扩大化，以防止进一步的干预。


The synchronized attacks in Paris, for example, coincided with the Islamic State’s loss of the Iraqi city of Sinjar.	比方说巴黎发生的同步袭击恰逢伊斯兰国在对伊拉克辛贾尔市的争夺中失利。


Of course, the terrorist cell that struck Paris was not created in the wake of the Islamic State’s recent battlefield losses.	当然，袭击巴黎的恐怖组织绝非在伊斯兰国近期战场失利后才被创立。


It was already in place, waiting to be activated (as others may be).	它们早已到位，等待着激活的指示（可能处在同样状态的还有其他恐怖组织）。


That demonstrates the Islamic State’s tactical flexibility, not to mention the availability of people willing to commit suicide.	这充分显示了伊斯兰国战术的灵活性，更不用说有很多人选愿意从事自杀性袭击。


If the Islamic State chose this time, in Paris, to target people who are not satirists, policemen, or Jews, it is precisely because their “ordinariness” left them unprotected.	如果伊斯兰国选择此时在巴黎袭击讽刺者、警察或犹太人以外的民众，恰恰是因为他们的“平凡”让他们得不到保护。


This time, the attackers chose “quantity” over “quality” (if one may be pardoned for such a crude formulation).	这次，袭击者选择重“量”而非重“质”（如果可以宽恕他们采用如此残酷的公式）。


The goal was to kill as many people as possible.	他们的目标是杀害尽可能多的民众。


This strategy is possible because the territory controlled by the Islamic State provides a sanctuary and training ground.	伊斯兰国控制区提供了庇护所和训练场让这一战略成为可能。


The self-proclaimed caliphate’s territories represent for the group what Taliban-controlled Afghanistan meant for Al Qaeda in the 1990s.	自封的所谓哈��发领土对该组织而言与20世纪90年代塔利班控制的阿富汗对基地组织具有相同的意义。


It is imperative to regain control of this territory.	当务之急是要夺回对这片领土的控制权。


And destroying the Islamic State’s “provinces” in Libya, Sinai, and elsewhere must become the number one priority of the international community.	摧毁伊斯兰国在利比亚、西奈和其他地方所设的“省”必须成为国际社会的首要任务。


Beyond analytical clarity, there is a need for unity, beginning in France, where citizens would reject their political class were its members to continue to behave divisively at such an obvious historical turning point.	从法国开始，除理性分析还需要团结，假如在如此明显的历史转折点政界人士仍然纷争不断，那么民众应该联合起来反对他们。


Unity must also be achieved within Europe.	此外必须在欧洲内部实现团结。


We are repeatedly told that Europe is in the midst of an identity crisis, in need of some new project.	我们被反复告知欧洲正在上演一场身份危机，需要找到一项新的事业。


Well, now Europe has found one.	那么现在欧洲已经找到了这样的事业。


To be European means to confront together the scourge of barbarism, to defend our values, our way of life, and our way of living together, despite our differences.	身为欧洲人意味着必须共同对抗野蛮的蹂躏、捍卫我们的价值观、生活方式并且和平共处、搁置分歧。


Unity is also required of the Western world as a whole.	整个西方世界同样需要团结。


President Barack Obama’s statement after the Paris attacks demonstrates that what unites Europe and the United States is much more significant than what divides us.	巴黎袭击发生后美国总统奥巴马的声明显示，将欧洲和美国团结在一起的因素远远超越我们的分歧。


We are in the same boat, faced with the same enemy.	我们乘坐同一条船，面对着同样的仇敌。


And this sense of unity must go beyond the European and Western world, because the Islamic State threatens countries such as Iran and Russia, not to mention Turkey, as much – if not more – than it does the West.	而上述团结感不能仅局限在欧洲和西方世界，因为就像威胁西方一样，伊斯兰国所威胁的国家还包括伊朗、俄罗斯，更不用说土耳其。


Of course, we must be realists.	当然，我们必须保持现实。


Our alliance of circumstance with these countries will not overcome all problems between them and us.	我们与这些国家结盟的条件无法克服他们和我们之间的所有问题。


So, beyond clarity and unity, we need firmness, both in confronting the threat of ISIS and in defending our values, especially adherence to the rule of law.	因此，除了清醒和团结，我们还必须坚定，尤其必须坚持法治，无论是捍卫我们的价值观还是面对伊斯兰国的威胁。


The Islamic State expects from us a combination of cowardice and overreaction.	伊斯兰国希望我们既胆怯又反应过度。


Its ultimate ambition is to provoke a clash of civilizations between the West and the Muslim world.	其最终目标是挑起西方与穆斯林世界的文明冲突。


We must not fall prey to that strategy.	我们绝不能成为这一战略的牺牲品。


But clarity comes first.	但清醒必须排在首位。


When Paris is attacked as it was last Friday, one must speak of war.	当巴黎遭受上周五那样的攻击，我们除了谈论战争以外别无选择。


No one wants to repeat the errors of the US under President George W. Bush; but to use those errors as an alibi to avoid confronting the world as it is would merely be an error of a different sort.	没有人愿意重复布什总统领导下美国的错误； 但利用那些错误作为逃避直面世界的借口只能是错误的另外一种表现形式。


Europe’s response must be tough, but it must not deviate from the rule of law.	欧洲的对策必须强硬，而且绝不能偏离法治。


We are, after all, engaged in a political battle with the Islamic State, one in which our love of life must prevail over their love of death.	毕竟，我们正与伊斯兰国展开政治斗争，我们所热爱的生命必须战胜他们所热爱的死亡。


But bioenergy is not carbon neutral, and the surge in European demand for biomass has led to rising food commodity prices and land grabs in developing countries.	但生物能不是碳中性的，而欧洲生物质需求的激增导致了粮食商品价格上涨和发���中国家的土地掠夺。


A Fair, Efficient, and Feasible Climate Agreement	一个公平、高效、可行的气候协定


CAMBRIDGE – How should one evaluate the agreement reached in Paris this month at the United Nations climate change conference?	坎布里奇—我们应该如何评估在本月的联合国气候变化巴黎大会上所达成的协定？


No sooner was the deal announced on December 12 than the debate erupted.	12月12日，协议一宣布，这一争论便应运而生。


Some avid environmentalists were disappointed that the agreement did not commit firmly to limiting global warming to 1.5º Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2050.	一些热情的环保主义者对协定感到失望，因为它没有坚决要求将2050年全球变暖幅度限制在前工业化水平以上1. 5℃以内。


But such a commitment would not have been credible.	但这一承诺未必可信。


What emerged in Paris was in fact better, because the negotiators were able to agree on practical steps in the right direction.	巴黎所达成的成果其实比这一承诺要好，因为谈判者能够在迈向正确方向的实践步骤上取得一致。


Individual countries pledged to limit their emissions in the near term, with provisions for future monitoring and periodic reviews of targets.	个体国家承诺在短期限制排放量，并规定了未来监督和定期评估目标。


This is far better than setting lofty goals for the distant future while giving little reason to think that they would be met.	这比制定遥远的崇高的目标而不不顾实现可能要好得多。


The important thing is to get started.	重要的是，气候协定启动了。


In four key respects, the agreement is a good one for those who regard global climate change as an important problem and want to take feasible steps to address it.	从四个关键方面看，如果你将全球气候变化视为一个重要问题，并希望采取可行的步骤解决这个问题，那么巴黎协定是一个好协定。


First, and most important, participation is comprehensive, with 188 countries offering individual commitments, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).	首先也是最重要的，巴黎协定获得了全面的参与，188个国家给出了个体承诺，即“国家自定贡献”（Intended Nationally Determined Contributions，INDCs）。


In the past, only rich countries were expected to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions; developing countries were explicitly spared that within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.	在过去，人们只期望富国降低温室气体排放，在联合国气候变化框架公约中，发展中国家被明确免去了减排责任。


That had to change, partly because it is in developing countries, not the advanced economies, that emisssions are growing the fastest.	这必须改变，部分是因为发展中国家而不是发达国家是排放增长最快的地方。


Furthermore, countries like the United States would not agree to limit their emissions if they feared that carbon-emitting industry would simply migrate to developing countries.	此外，如果美国等国家担心排碳行业只需要简单地迁往发展中国家，那么它们是不会同意限制它们的排放的。


Second, the agreement includes a process of future assessment and revision of targets.	其次，巴黎协定包含了未来评估和修订目标的程序。


Every five years, the parties will take stock and renew the commitments.	每五年，各方将进行盘查、更新承诺。


Targets can be adjusted in light of future developments to be more or less aggressive, (probably more, if the scientists’ predictions are borne out).	目标可以根据未来发展情况调整激进程度（更加激进的可能性更大，如果科学家的预测兑现的话）。


Negotiations on the INDC revisions are to begin in 2018, even though the first set of targets is scheduled to take effect in 2020.	INDC修订谈判将从2018年开始，尽管第一批目标的效力期限定在了2020年。


Third, the Paris deal takes steps toward transparency in monitoring, reporting, and verifying countries’ progress.	第三，巴黎协议采取了增加各国进展监控、报告和证实的透明度的措施。


Starting in 2023, countries are to report every five years on compliance with their emissions targets.	从2023年开始，各国每五年需要报告一次排放目标的遵守情况。


The US and Europe had to push China and India to agree to this.	美国和欧洲促使中国和印度接受了这一点。


But without transparency, the INDCs would not be credible.	但没有透明度，INDC就不可信。


Fourth, the agreement contains mechanisms to facilitate international linkage, including scope for residents of rich countries to finance emissions reductions in poor countries.	第四，巴黎协定包含了促进国际联系的机制，包括富裕国家居民为贫穷国家减排融资的规模。


This is important because it is cheaper to pay a poor country to refrain from building new coal-fired power plants than it is to shut down an existing plant in a rich country.	这一点很重要，因为掏钱让穷国不要建造新燃煤发电站要比关闭富国的已有燃煤发电站代价低廉。


And achieving the first period’s INDCs at low cost will be an important determinant of countries’ willingness to take further steps in future periods.	而以低成本实现第一轮INDC将是决定各国在未来采取进一步措施的重要因素。


Achieving more aggressive environmental goals, particularly limiting warming to 1.5ºC, or zero greenhouse-gas emissions in the second half of the century, would of course be desirable in terms of minimizing the risk of disaster scenarios.	实现更激进的环境目标，特别是将变暖幅度控制在1. 5℃之内或在本世纪下半叶实现温室气体零排放，当然是实现灾难情景风险最小化的好途径。


In fact, the first INDCs, by themselves, are nowhere near enough even to limit warming to 2ºC (the global goal that was agreed in Cancún in 2010).	事实上，第一批INDC本身并不足以将变暖幅度控制在2℃之内（2010年坎昆所达成的全球目标）。


But proclaiming ambitious targets is very different from achieving them.	宣布宏大目标与实现这些目标是完全不同的。


It is almost beside the point that the economic cost of pursuing a goal of 1.5ºC would be very high.	实现1. 5℃目标的经济成本很高，这根本不是问题的重点。


In any case, leaders can’t make credible commitments 35 years into the future.	无论如何，领导人都无法做出未来35年后的可信承诺。


And the plan needs to be credible if it is to influence myriad business decisions made today.	而如果一项计划要想影响到今天的众多商业决定，它就必须是可信的。


Some developing-country leaders may be displeased for another reason: the figure of $100 billion in finance from rich countries does not appear in the legally binding body of the agreement.	一些发展中国家领导人也许因为另一个原因而不太高兴：富裕国家提供1,000亿美元融资没有写入协定有法律约束力的部分。


The rich countries did admit their moral responsibility to help small island states, for example, cope with “loss and damages” from sea-level rise.	富裕国家确实承诺它们有道德上的责任帮助（比如）小岛国应对海平面升高所带来的“损失和伤害”。


But they rejected demands for formal acceptance of legal liability.	但它们拒绝了正式接受法律义务的要求。


This was a reasonable outcome in a difficult situation.	这是困难局面中的理性选择。


Rich countries can’t deny that their past emissions have inflicted harm on the world.	富裕国家不可否认它们过去的排放给世界造成了伤害。


In a domestic legal system, an entity whose land was, say, flooded would have a claim to compensation from the entity that had caused the damage.	在国内法律体系内，一个土地被（比如）淹的实体有权向导致这一伤害的实体主张补偿。


But sovereign countries are not operating in such a system.	但主权国家并不存在于这样的体系中。


The $100 billion in finance has always seemed problematic.	1,000亿美元融资的数字永远有问题。


The developing countries fear that the rich countries won’t deliver the money, at least not cash; and they are right.	发展中国家担心富裕国家不会给钱，至少不会给现金； 它们是对的。


The rich countries fear that such “reparations” would disappear into the pockets of local elites; and they, too, are right.	富裕国家担心这些“赔款”会流入地方精英的腰包不知所踪，它们也是对的。


So it is better not to make promises.	因此，不要作出承诺是更好的选择。


The poor countries do have a strong case.	贫穷国家确实有主张权利的底气。


The average American still accounts for ten times the emissions of the average citizen of India, and India should not be deprived of the right to develop economically.	一位普通美国人的碳排放量是普通印度人的十倍，而印度不应该被剥夺经济地发展的权利。


But the best way to address these fairness concerns is through the agreed emissions targets.	但解决这些公平问题的最佳办法是通过一致的排放目标。


The efforts that richer countries promised should be – and generally are – greater than the efforts of poor countries. The richer a country is, the earlier the date at which its emissions should peak.	较富裕国家所承诺的措施应该——总体而言也确实如此——比贫穷国家更大更多。


The richer it is, the more sharply its target should cut emissions relative to the baseline.	国家越富裕，其相对于基线的减排目标就应该更激进。


With targets that take into account their stage of development, poor countries can be paid for additional emissions cuts under the international linkage mechanisms.	目标应该考虑到发展阶段，如此，贫穷国家可能根据国际联系机制从增加减排力度中获得补偿。


In such ways, the Paris agreement ensures both fairness and efficiency.	巴黎协定用这样的方法确保了公平和效率。


Achieving it was a daunting challenge, and more challenges lie ahead.	形成这一协定是一个艰巨的挑战，而未来还有更多的挑战。


But the negotiators’ success in converging on a plan that offers hope of practical progress is an unambiguous triumph.	但谈判者成功地形成了一个计划，给我们带来了实践进步的希望，这毫无疑问是一种胜利。


But by 2050, we must reduce energy-related emissions by 70% from 2010 levels, with further cuts needed to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.	到2050年，我们必须在让能源相关排放在2010年水平的基础上减少70%，而要实现2060年净零排放，则需要进一步减��。


Beyond the Paris Climate Agreement	巴黎气候协定之外


COPENHAGEN – Now that it has been ratified by India and the European Union, the Paris climate agreement is set to enter into force.	哥本哈根—巴黎气候协定已经通过印度和欧盟的批准，即将生效。


But the hard part is yet to come: turning the agreement’s vague political commitments into concrete action to mitigate global warming.	但难点还没有到来：将协定模糊的政治承诺转化为减轻全球变暖的具体行动。


The Paris agreement, concluded last December, was a major accomplishment and an unprecedented display of political unity in the effort to tackle one of the most dangerous and complicated threats to our future welfare and prosperity.	去年12月议定的巴黎协定是一项重大成就，是为了应对我们的未来福祉和繁荣所面临的最危险、最复杂的威胁而做出的前所未有的政治团结表现。


By including the entire international community in its partly binding framework, the deal establishes a new paradigm in global governance.	通过将整个国际社会纳入其半约束性框架，该协议建立了全球治理的新范式。


But, in practical terms, the agreement is hardly a guarantee of success.	但是，在实践层面，该协定远远不是成功保证。


It provides no tools to ensure implementation of the policies and measures needed to keep global warming “well below” two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the threshold that forms the centerpiece of the deal.	它没有提供确保将全球变暖控制在“远低于”前工业化水平以上二摄氏度以下（作为该协议核心内容的阈值）所需要的政策和措施。


The agreement provides merely a framework for reporting and reviewing on the implementation of disparate national agendas, as well as provisions aimed at nudging countries to achieve deeper cuts.	该协定只是提供了一个框架报告和评估各国议程的实施情况，以及旨在推动各国实现深入减排的条款。


Rather than establishing an enforcement mechanism to keep countries on track to meeting their targets, the agreement relies on a “facilitative dialogue” on collective progress to sustain momentum.	该协定并未制定执行机制促使各国实现目标，而是依靠关于集体进步的“促进对话”保持势头。


But even this provision will not be tested until 2018.	但即使是这样的条款，也要等到2018年才能接受检验。


Given the difficulty of such large-scale intergovernmental cooperation, a more ambitious and binding global agreement could not reasonably be expected, at least not anytime soon.	如此大规模的国际合作是十分困难的，因此，难以期待产生更加宏大的约束性全球协定，至少在短期不可能。


But climate change is not going to wait.	但气候变化不会等待。


Its effects are already being felt worldwide, with extreme weather conditions becoming increasingly frequent.	其影响已经在全世界显现，极端天气情况越来越频繁。


In fact, evidence suggests that the effects of current concentrations of greenhouse-gas emissions are already at the upper end of the modeled scenarios.	事实上，证据表明当前温室气体排放集中度已经达到模型情景的上限。


Climate scientists now warn that the two-degree window is closing very rapidly, if it is not already shut.	气候学家已经发出警告，两度窗口正在迅速关闭，时日无多。


If we are to have any chance of meeting our climate targets, we need to take strong action now to reduce emissions drastically – action that goes beyond the Paris agreement.	若想争取实现气候目标的机会，我们需要从现在开始采取果断行动大幅削减排放——而光靠巴黎协定是不够的。


We must fundamentally transform the way we do business, with investors and companies abandoning their cautious approach to the low-carbon transition.	我们必须从根本上改变经营方式，投资者和公司要抛弃低碳转型的谨慎方针。


There are signs that such a shift in mindset is underway.	有迹象表明思维转变已在进行中。


Efforts and initiatives to catalyze a more rapid move toward greener practices by companies, investors, and capital markets are multiplying, spearheaded partly by business leaders eager to profit from the transformation.	公司、投资者和资本市场纷纷采取促进加快朝更加绿色的行为转型的措施和计划，部分领头者是渴望从这一转型中获取利润的商业领袖。


But the momentum remains far from strong enough, and, in general, capital markets still do not incorporate climate and carbon factors when pricing assets and evaluating risk.	但势头仍然不够强，并且总体而言，资本市场仍未将气候和碳因素纳入资产定价和风险评估模型。


With the right approach, businesses could not only help to achieve the emissions targets set out in the Paris agreement; they could also contribute to reigniting growth and delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals, approved by the United Nations last year.	采取正确方针的企业不但能够助力实现巴黎协定所指定的排放目标； 还能为复兴增长和实现可持续发展目标（SDG，由联合国在去年批准）做出贡献。


As a recent report released by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate emphasizes, that approach should center on investment in sustainable infrastructure.	经济和气候全球委员会（Global Commission on the Economy and Climate）发布的最新报告强调，这一方针应该以可持续基础设施投资为中心。


There is no question that the investments made today in infrastructure, as well as in extraction and utilities – will have important implications for long-term emissions.	毫无疑问，今天所做出的基础设施以及开采和公用设施投资将对长期排放产生重要影响。


The wrong approach could easily lock the world into a carbon-based economy for another decade or more, pushing us far beyond the two-degree threshold.	错误的方针很有可能会让碳基经济延长十年甚至更多，导致我们远远超过二摄氏度阈值。


Green infrastructure, however, can form the foundation for a sustainable economy.	但是，绿色基础设施能够为可持续经济打下基础。


The Global Commission report sets out to identify the main obstacles to financing such infrastructure and to create an agenda to overcome them.	全球委员会报告的主旨是指出此类基础设施融资的主要障碍，并制定克服这些障碍的议程。


In doing so, it represents a new approach to bringing about systemic change, different in two fundamental ways.	如此，它代表了带来系统性变化的新方针，有两个基本不同点。


First, the proposed agenda adopts a more holistic perspective on the green transformation.	首先，建议议程采取了更加全面的绿色转型角度。


The report includes specific recommendations on matters such as how to shift to low-carbon systems; but it presents them against the backdrop of broader priorities, such as the SDGs.	报告给出的具体建议包括如何转向低碳系统等内容，但呈现的方式是将它们置于更加宽泛的重点的背景下（如SDG）。


In other words, it seeks not just to put the transition to a green economy at the top of the political agenda; it makes it a key component of the response to a broad range of political, social, and economic challenges.	换句话说，报告不断寻求将绿色经济转型作为政治议程的重中之重； 并将它作为应对更宽泛的一系列政治、社会和经济挑战的关键组成部分。


Second, the recommendations emphasize the business opportunity presented by the ongoing disruption of the world economy.	其次，报告的建议强调正在发生的世界经济破坏所呈现的机会。


If investors recognize the benefits of getting in on the ground floor of the new economy, they will be more likely to embrace the necessary changes, thereby helping to drive forward a critical climate transition.	如果投资者认识到抄底新经济的好处，就更有可能实施必要的变化，从而有助于推动关键性气候转型。


The new approach may make all the difference – and not only to business.	新方针将带来焕然一新的变化——不仅仅是对商业。


What is at stake is nothing less than the world’s ability to take back control of our future.	世界重新掌控未来的能力亦在其中。


Pragmatism in Climate Policy	气候政策中的实用主义


BERLIN – The diplomatic effort to forge an international agreement to mitigate climate change is undergoing a fundamental shift.	柏林——签署旨在缓解气候变化国际协议的外交努力正悄然发生着根本性的变化。


The top-down approach that has guided the effort since 1992 is slowly being replaced by a bottom-up model.	自下而上的模式正逐渐取代自1992年来一直指导这项工作的自上而下的方法。


Rather than attempting to craft an accord based on legally binding restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, the new approach relies on voluntary commitments by individual countries to rein in their contributions to climate change.	新方法依赖各国自愿承诺来遏制气候变化，而不再试图达成具有法律约束力的温室气体排放限制协议。


This is, in one sense, an admission of failure; such an approach is unlikely to limit the rise in global temperatures to less than 2° Celsius, the target set by the United Nations in 2010.	这从某种意义上说是承认失败； 这样的做法不太可能实现2010年联合国所规定的全球气温升高低于2摄氏度的目标。


But given the slow pace of progress so far, small pragmatic steps by individual countries may be far more productive than attempts to strike a grand bargain that remains forever out of reach.	但鉴于到目前为止进展非常缓慢，各国微小但务实的举措可能会比试图达成永远遥不可及的宏伟协议显得更加有效。


International negotiators have made significant progress over the last five years, but they are still far away from an agreement that would meet the 2°C target.	过去五年来国际谈判人员取得了显著的进步，但他们仍远未达成2摄氏度的协议目标。


As a result, diplomats, fearing that another failed attempt to reach a global accord could discredit the entire negotiating process, have rescaled their ambitions.	这样一来，外交官们因为担心再次无法达成全球协议可能损害整个谈判的可信度 ，因此他们已经重新调整了自己的目标。


In particular, efforts to set strict limits on emissions are quietly being dropped.	尤其是人们正悄悄放弃对排放制定严格限制的努力。


The focus is no longer on what is environmentally desirable or on the measures needed to keep climate change in check; rather, it is on what is politically feasible – the possibilities and constraints of the negotiating process, especially with a view to securing broad participation.	现在的焦点已不再是确保理想环境或哪些措施能限制气候变化； 相反，人们开始关注哪些措施在政治上是可行的——即谈判过程中可能的目标和限制因素，特别是着眼于实现广泛参与的目标。


Given the slow pace of progress since the first UN climate-change summit in 1995, any agreement that involves all members of the Framework Convention on Climate Change will be hailed as a historic success.	鉴于1995年首次联合国气候变化峰会以来的缓慢进展，涉及气候变化框架公约全体成员的任何协议都将被人们当作是历史性的成功。


That is why, as world leaders and environment ministers prepare to attend the climate-change conference in Paris in November and December, persuading all major emitters to commit to ambitious and legally binding emissions reductions is no longer considered realistic.	因此在各国领袖和环境部长准备参加十一和十二月在巴黎举行的气候变化会议时，说服所有主要排放国接受雄心勃勃且具有法律约束力的减排目标不再被认为是现实的选择。


The world’s largest polluters – especially China, India, and the United States – have made it clear that they alone will decide what measures they will take.	世界最大的污染国——尤其是中国、印度和美国——已明确表示他们将自主决定采取哪些举措。


Having declared their unilateral targets, they are unlikely to engage in further multilateral negotiations.	在单方面宣布减排目标后，他们不太可能再参与进一步的多边谈判。


To be sure, few diplomats would state this so bluntly.	可以肯定，鲜有外交官会如此直言不讳。


Doing so would acknowledge the failure of the last 20 years of UN climate policy.	因为这样做相当于承认过去20年联合国气候政策的失败。


Instead, they tend to frame the bottom-up approach not as a break with the top-down paradigm, but as a pragmatic supplement that accommodates major emitters and creates a framework for the climate initiatives of sub-national actors, such as large cities and companies.	相反，他们往往不承认自下而上的方法打破了自上而下的模式，而是将其视为规范所有主要排放国并建立大城市和企业等次国家行为主体气候协议框架的务实补充。


But the truth is that the top-down approach is already being discarded.	但事实是自上而下的方法已经被抛弃。


Its defining characteristic, after all, is not the political arena in which an agreement will be struck (the UN system); it is the overarching policy goal (avoiding dangerous climate change).	因为归根结底，其标志性特征并非达成协议的政治舞台（联合国系统）； 而是首要的政策目标（避免危险的气候变化）。


And it is already clear that the negotiations in Paris will fail to deliver on the 2°C target established in 2010 – or on any other strictly binding threshold.	而且巴黎谈判显然已无法实现2010年制定的2摄氏度气温变化——或者其他任何有严格约束力的目标。


When the contributions of the more than 160 countries that have submitted their voluntary mitigation commitments – the so-called “intended nationally determined contributions” – are added up, the scale of the failure becomes evident.	如果把已提交自愿减排承诺的160多个国家的贡献——也就是所谓“预期国家确定贡献”——加在一起，失败的规模就显而易见了。


Even if all countries rigorously adhere to their pledges, the world is on track for a temperature increase of at least 3°C.	���便所有国家都严格遵守自己的承诺，世界也会出现至少3摄氏度的气温升高。


Indeed, the stated goal of the Paris agreement will be to try to “keep the 2°C target within reach.”	事实上，尽量“确保气温升高2摄氏度”将是巴黎协议的既定目标。


Diplomats plan to include “ratcheting-up mechanisms” that allow for a gradual increase in aspiration.	外交人员计划纳入“渐进机制”，从而允许期望值逐渐升高。


But if history is any guide, such mechanisms are unlikely to be used in the next ten years; their main function is to put a positive spin on a disappointing outcome and keep hopes of more ambitious policies alive.	但如果以史为鉴，上述机制不太可能在今后十年真正落到实处； 其主要作用是正面解读令人失望的结果，并保持对更加雄心勃勃的政策的希望。


Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism: pragmatism is proving more powerful than idealism.	不过仍不乏乐观的理由：事实证明实用主义比理想主义更加有效。


After more than a decade of attempts to establish strict limits on emissions, the top-down approach has clearly failed to deliver.	经过十多年对排放进行严格限制的努力，自上而下的方法显然未能实现目标。


The quiet adoption of a bottom-up approach is a tacit admission that countries cannot be forced to abide by a strict, centralized regime, even if it is based on scientific evidence.	悄无声息地采用自下而上的方法相当于心照不宣地承认不能强迫各国遵守一项严格的集中制度，即使上述制度的依据是科学。


The adoption of voluntary measures has already sparked progress, most notably the coordinated commitments by the US and China.	采取自愿措施已经取得了进步，最明显的是美国和中国一道公布了目标。


Because the bottom-up approach respects the established ways sovereign countries act on the international stage, it has the potential to create positive momentum.	由于自下而上的方法尊重主权国家在国际舞台上行为的既定方式，它完全有能力创造积极的势头。


Most governments prioritize political survival and short-term economic success; they will contribute to global climate action only if they know that their main competitors are doing so as well.	多数政府优先考虑政治生存和短期经济成就； 只有知道主要竞争对手也这么做，他们才会参与全球气候行动。


On balance, then, the emergence of a bottom-up approach in the fight against climate change is an important step forward.	因此总体而言，气候变化斗争中自下而上方法的出现是前进的重要步骤。


A world that is 3°C warmer may be far from ideal.	全球气温升高3摄氏度或许很不理想。


But it is better than a world in which climate change has spiraled out of control.	但气候变化失控的世界肯定更糟。


The Climate’s Point of No Return	无法回头的气候拐点


MADRID – When it comes to climate change, the world has reached a point of no return.	马德里——在气候变化问题上，世界已经触及了无法回头的拐点。


That may sound ominous, but it is precisely where we need to be: unable to continue retreading old ground, we must resolutely set our future path.	这听起来有些可怕，但我们恰恰需要如此：无法再继续重走老路，我们必须坚决确定未来的方向。


An important first step will come at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) in Paris in November and December, where world leaders will agree on the most important international agreement on climate governance in more than 20 years.	十一、十二月在巴黎召开的联合国气候变化会议将迈出重要的一步，世界领导人将在20多年来首次达成最重要的气候治理国际协议。


Yet important decisions remain to be made in charting a course toward a new and dynamic low-carbon economy, one capable of supporting a fast-growing and increasingly prosperous global population in the long term.	但我们仍需就开辟充满活力的新低碳经济道路做出重要决策，上述经济必须能够支撑长期快速发展和日益繁荣的全球民众。


With citizens, business, and governments worldwide finally recognizing the universal nature of climate change, the outlook for this year’s conference is substantially more positive than it was prior to the last attempt to reach a comprehensive global agreement, at the 2009 Copenhagen summit (COP 15).	随着全球范围内的民众、企业和政府终于认识到气候变化的普遍性，今年的达成全面全球协议的会议前景相比2009年哥本哈根峰会无疑要乐观得多。


To be sure, the challenge ahead is as broad as it is complex; but it is becoming increasingly clear that making the transition to a low-carbon economy will bring considerable economic benefits.	可以肯定，未来的挑战涉及面既广泛又复杂； 但人们越来越清楚地认识到过渡到低碳经济收获的经济利益将十分可观。


Consider urbanization.	比方说城市化。


In the next 15 years, the world’s cities are set to grow dramatically, becoming home to 60% of the world’s 8.5 billion people.	今后15年，世界城市注定会取得长足发展，成为60%全球民众（85亿）的家。


How those cities are designed will matter for both the environment and the economy.	上述城市设计将对环境和经济产生重大的影响。


The difference between Atlanta and Barcelona is a case in point.	亚特兰大和巴塞罗那间的区别就是例子。


The two cities have a similar number of residents, but Atlanta’s transport-related carbon-dioxide emissions exceed Barcelona’s by a factor of six.	这两座城市居民人数相近，但亚特兰大与交通运输相关的二氧化碳排放量超过了巴塞罗那的六倍。


A key reason for this is urban sprawl: with a built-up area nearly 12 times larger than Barcelona, Atlanta implicitly encourages widespread private-vehicle use, boosting emissions, congestion, and air pollution.	其中的关键原因是城市扩张：因为建筑面积比巴塞罗那大近12倍，亚特兰大暗中鼓励私人轿车的广泛使用，从而加剧了排放、交通拥堵和空气污染等问题。


Compact, well-connected cities that feature efficient public transportation systems – cities like Barcelona – are healthier and more sustainable.	像巴塞罗那这样紧凑、四通八达且拥有高效公交系统的城市更可持续、也更加健康。


Moreover, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate estimates that such cities could reduce capital requirements for urban infrastructure by more than $3 trillion over the next 15 years.	此外，全球经济和气候委员会估计这样的城市可以在今后15年减少对城市基础建设的资金需求超过3万亿。


Cutting-edge technological developments – in renewable energy and hybrid or electric vehicles, for example – will be indispensable in building these cities (and, more broadly, a clean and efficient economy).	举例来讲，可再生能源、混合动力车或电动车等尖端技术的发展在城市（从广义上看，清洁和高效经济）建设中起到的作用将不可或缺。


Although much research remains to be done, such technologies are increasingly accessible.	虽然仍有不少研究工作要做，但类似的技术已经越来越实用。


In bringing about change, however, vested interests are a formidable sparring partner.	技术变革带来变化，但既得利益依然是最强大的对手。


Upending the status quo will be no easy feat.	颠覆现状绝非易事。


As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney recently warned, when the world takes serious action to stop climate change – as it is expected to do this December – vast fossil-fuel assets will be left stranded.	正如英格兰银行行长马克·卡尼最近所警告的那样，当世界认真采取行动阻止气候变化——就像今年12月人们所预计的那样——巨额的化石燃料资产将会限入到困境当中。


The fact that those assets are a key tranche of many investment portfolios is an unavoidable reality, not a reason to reconsider.	上述资产是许多投资组合的关键部分是一个无法回避的现实，但没有理由因此而重新思考。


Fortunately, public awareness of the effects of fossil-fuel consumption is growing.	幸运的是，公众对化石燃料消费影响的认识越来越清楚。


On a macro level, the World Health Organization recently revised its estimate of the number of premature deaths due to air pollution to seven million annually.	宏观上，世卫组织最近将每年与空气污染相关的早亡人数预期值上调至七百万。


On a micro level, the masks commonly worn in heavily polluted cities, such as in China, are a visible sign of the need for change.	微观上，在中国等国家污染最严重的城市，戴口罩表明显然有做出改变的必要。


Another challenge stems from the global nature of climate change.	气候变化的全球性质带来另一个挑战。


It is a classic public-goods problem: in principle, it is in individual countries’ self-interest not to take action, while the rest of the world does.	这是典型的公共利益问题：原则上，在世界其他国家采取行动时，不采取行动符合个别国家的自身利益。


Compounding the challenge further is the fact that the benefits of actions taken today accrue in the distant future.	难度更大的是今天行动的好处只会在遥远的未来逐步显现。


Here, too, changing perceptions of climate change offer renewed hope for progress.	在此问题上，对气候变化看法的改变带来了新的进步希望。


Spurred by increased public awareness and mounting evidence that national economies can reap net benefits from policies to mitigate climate change, governments worldwide are pledging to do so – and taking to multilateral forums to display those commitments.	在公众意识提高和有越来越多证据表明国家经济可以从缓和气候变化政策中��取净收益的情况下，世界各国政府正在承诺遏制气候变化——他们利用多边论坛来表达他们的承诺。


So far, 155 countries – including large emitters – have submitted to the UN plans describing their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) to the fight against climate change.	迄今为止，155个国家——其中包括大的排放国——已经向联合国递交了“决意为应对气候变化做出贡献”（INDC）的计划。


India, the world’s third-largest emitter, has pledged to reduce emissions intensity by 33-35% from 2005 levels, and generate 40% of its power from non-fossil-fuel sources, by 2030.	世界第三大排放国印度已经承诺到2030年实现排放强度比2005年降低33-35%，并实现非化石燃料能源发电量占总发电量的40%。


Brazil promises that its greenhouse-gas emissions in 2025 will be 37% lower than in 2005, and 43% lower by 2030.	巴西承诺该国2025年温室气体排放量将比2005年降低37%，到2030年则降低43%。


And the European Union has committed to a minimum emissions reduction of 40% from 1990 levels.	而欧盟也已做出比1990年最少减排40%的承诺。


Perhaps most important, the United States and China – the world’s top two emitters, which together account for more than one-third of global greenhouse-gas emissions – have finally stepped up, announcing concrete climate commitments in a joint statement last year.	或许最重要的是，美国和中国这两个合并排放量占全球温室气体排量三分之一以上的全世界最大的排放国终于加快了脚步，在去年一份联合声明中公开了具体的气候承诺。


This injected significant momentum into global climate efforts.	这在极大程度上推动了全球气候工作。


Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping went a step further, pledging to establish by 2017 a national market to set prices for CO2 emissions.	上个月，中国国家主席习近平又进了一步，承诺将在2017年建成为二氧化碳排放定价的全国性市场。


The document signed in Paris will be the first treaty of a new era.	巴黎即将签署的文件将成为新时代的首份条约。


Its hybrid governance structure – which combines top-down elements (primarily in monitoring and verification) with bottom-up commitments (the voluntary INDCs) – is revolutionary, as it enables us to avoid the deadlock that often characterizes large-scale multilateral governance processes.	该条约混合自上而下元素（主要是监测与核查）和自下而上承诺（自愿INDC）的混合型治理结构具有革命性的效果，因为我们能借此避开常常伴随着大规模多边治理进程的僵局和停顿。


Already, this new model has helped to encourage national participation and enhance transparency, with national policies being published openly on the UNFCCC website.	随着国家政策在联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）网站上的公开发布，上述新模式已经有效地鼓励了全民参与并提升了透明度。


But one critical question remains unresolved: How can we ensure that these voluntary individual pledges add up to a collective solution to a global problem?	但有一个关键问题仍未得到解决：我们如何才能确保这些自愿的个体承诺合在一起构成全球问题的集体解决方案？


Current calculations indicate that if the submitted INDCs, covering nearly 90% of global emissions, are implemented, global warming will probably still exceed 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) – the threshold beyond which climate change’s most disastrous consequences would be triggered.	目前的计算数据表明如果涉及近90%全球排放的已提交INDC全部得到落实，全球变暖可能仍将超过2摄氏度（3. 6华氏度）——一旦超过这一阈值可能会引发气候变化最灾难性的后果。


It is therefore vital that negotiators in Paris work together to determine how to boost policy ambition.	因此巴黎的谈判人员合作确定如何提升政策目标至关重要。


At this point of no return, we must link national plans to global goals – and thereby ensure that we move in the right direction.	面对这样一个无法回头的拐点，我们必须协调国家计划和全球目标——从而确保沿着正确的前进方向。


From Good Intentions to Deep Decarbonization	从美好愿望到深度脱碳


NEW YORK – In the run-up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, more than 150 governments submitted plans to reduce carbon emissions by 2030.	纽约——在巴黎联合国气候变化大会（COP21）召开之前，150多个国家政府提交了截止2030年的碳减排方案。


Many observers are asking whether these reductions are deep enough.	许多观察家都在询问上述减排措施是否充分。


But there is an even more important question: Will the chosen path to 2030 provide the basis for ending greenhouse-gas emissions later in the century?	但还有一个更重要的问题：我们所选择的这条道路到2030年是否真能为本世纪末结束温室气体排放打下基础？


According to the scientific consensus, climate stabilization requires full decarbonization of our energy systems and zero net greenhouse-gas emissions by around 2070.	按照科学界的共识，气候稳定需要到2070年左右能源系统实现彻底脱碳和温室气体净排放为零。


The G-7 has recognized that decarbonization – the only safe haven from disastrous climate change – is the ultimate goal this century.	七国集团已经认识到脱碳——即灾难性气候变化的唯一避风港——是人类本世纪的终极目标。


And many heads of state from the G-20 and other countries have publicly declared their intention to pursue this path.	二十国集团及其他国家的众多国家元首已经公开宣布要实现这一目标。


Yet the countries at COP21 are not yet negotiating decarbonization.	但巴黎联合国气候变化大会的与会国仍尚未启动脱碳谈判。


They are negotiating much more modest steps, to 2025 or 2030, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).	他们正在谈判截止2025年或2030年的更为温和的措施，上述措施被称为预期国家确定贡献（INDC）。


The United States’ INDC, for example, commits the US to reduce CO2 emissions by 26-28%, relative to a 2005 baseline, by 2025.	以美国的INDC为例，美国承诺到2025年实现二氧化碳排放在2005年的基础上降低26-28%。


Though the fact that more than 150 INDCs have been submitted represents an important achievement of the international climate negotiations, most pundits are asking whether the sum of these commitments is enough to keep global warming below the agreed limit of 2º Celsius (3.6º Fahrenheit).	尽管提交150多份INDC代表国际气候谈判取得了重要成果，但多数专家都在询问这些承诺加在一起是否足以让全球变暖低于2摄氏度（3. 6华氏度）的协议限额。


They are debating, for example, whether the INDCs add up to a 25% or 30% reduction by 2030, and whether we need a 25%, 30%, or 40% reduction by then to be on track.	比方说，他们正在讨论INDC到2030年合计完成减排25%还是30%，而此后我们需要25%、30%还是40%的减排才能完成目标。


But the most important issue is whether countries will achieve their 2030 targets in a way that helps them to get to zero emissions by 2070 (full decarbonization).	但最重要的问题是国家能否以2070年实现零排放（全脱碳）的方式实现其2030年目标。


If they merely pursue measures aimed at reducing emissions in the short term, they risk locking their economies into high levels of emissions after 2030.	如果只是落实旨在减少短期排放的措施，他们有可能在2030年后将自己的经济锁定在高排放水平上。


The critical issue, in short, is not 2030, but what happens afterward.	总之，关键问题不在于2030年，而在于以后。


There are reasons to worry.	现在的情况的确存在担心的理由。


There are two paths to 2030.	到2030年我们可以选择两条路。


We might call the first path “deep decarbonization,” meaning steps to 2030 that prepare the way for much deeper steps after that.	第一条称之为“深度脱碳”，意味着到2030年准备执行深入得多的脱碳步骤。


The second path could be called the way of “low-hanging fruit” – easy ways to reduce emissions modestly, quickly, and at relatively low cost.	第二条可以称为“低垂的果实”——意指适度、快速、并且成本相对较低的减排方法。


The first path might offer little low-hanging fruit; indeed, the low-hanging fruit can become a distraction or worse.	第一条路可能不会有低垂的果实； 事实上，低垂的果实可能成为某种干扰甚至更糟。


Here is the reason for worry.	下面是我们担心的理由。


The simplest way to reduce emissions to 2030 is by converting coal-fired power plants to gas-fired power plants.	到2030年实现减排最简单的方法是将燃煤电厂改建成燃气电厂。


The former emit about 1,000 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour; the latter emit around half of that.	前者排放每千瓦时约1000克的二氧化碳； 而后者的排放量仅为前者的半数。


During the coming 15 years, it would not be hard to build new gas-fired plants to replace today’s coal plants.	今后15年中，建设全新燃气电厂取代目前的燃煤电厂难度不大。


Another low-hanging fruit is great gains in the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines, taking automobile mileage from, say, 35 miles per gallon in the US to 55 miles per gallon by 2025.	另一个低垂的果实是大幅提高内燃机的燃油效率，到2025年将美国汽车行驶里程从每加仑汽油35英里提高到每加伦汽油55英里。


The problem is that gas-fired power plants and more efficient internal-combustion vehicles are not nearly enough to get to zero net emissions by 2070.	问题是燃气电厂和更高效的内燃机汽车远远无法实现到2070年净排放为零的目标。


We need to get to around 50 grams per kilowatt-hour by 2050, not 500 grams per kilowatt-hour.	我们需要在2050年达到每千瓦时50克的排放量，而不是每千瓦时500克。


We need to get to zero-emission vehicles, not more efficient gas-burning vehicles, especially given that the number of vehicles worldwide could easily double by mid-century.	我们需要的是零排放汽车，而不是更高效的燃气汽车，尤其当考虑到全球车辆数很可能在本世纪中叶轻松翻番。


Deep decarbonization requires not natural gas and fuel-efficient vehicles, but zero-carbon electricity and electric vehicles charged on the zero-carbon electricity grid.	深度脱碳所需要的不是天然气和高效燃油车，而是由零排放电网负责充电的零排放电能和电动汽车。


This more profound transformation, unlike the low-hanging fruit eyed today by many politicians, offers the only path to climate safety (that is, staying below the 2ºC limit).	上述更深层次的转型与今天众多政治家眼中低垂的果实不同，是实现气候安全（即将温度升高控制在2℃以内）的唯一道路。


By pursuing coal to gas, or more efficient gas-burning vehicles, we risk putting ourselves into a high-carbon trap.	如果用燃气代替燃煤，或者推广更高效的燃气车辆，我们就有可能陷入到高碳陷阱之中。


The figure above illustrates the conundrum.	上图对道难题进行了说明。


The low-hanging-fruit pathway (red) achieves a steep reduction by 2030.	低垂果实法（用红色线表示）到2030年能够实现大幅减排。


It probably does so at lower cost than the deep-decarbonization pathway (green), because the conversion to zero-carbon electricity (for example, wind and solar power) and to electric vehicles might be more costly than a simple patch-up of our current technologies.	它很可能比用深度脱碳法（绿色线）要节省成本，因为改用零碳电力（比方说风能和太阳能）和电动车可能比仅仅修补当前技术的成本更高。


The problem is that the low-hanging-fruit pathway will achieve fewer reductions after 2030. It will lead into a dead end.	问题在于低垂果实法2030年后实现的减排有限，很可能导致人类走入死胡同。


Only the deep-decarbonization pathway gets the economy to the necessary stage of decarbonization by 2050 and to zero net emissions by 2070.	而只有深度脱碳法才能在2050年让经济达到必要的阶段，并在2070年实现零净排放目标。


The allure of the short-term fix is very powerful, especially to politicians watching the election cycle.	短期修补措施的吸引力非常巨大，特别是对以选举周期为重的政治家而言。


Yet it is a mirage.	但却不啻于海市蜃楼。


In order for policymakers to understand what’s really at stake in decarbonization, and therefore what they should do today to avoid dead-end gimmicks and facile solutions, all governments should prepare commitments and plans not only to 2030 but also at least to 2050.	为了让决策者真正理解脱碳的利害关系和今天必须采取哪些措施避免走进死胡同和陷入轻而易举的解决办法，所有政府的计划和承诺都应该制定到2050而不是2030年。


This is the main message of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), which has mobilized research teams in 16 of the largest greenhouse-gas emitters to prepare national Deep Decarbonization Pathways to mid-century.	这是深度脱碳方案计划（DDPP）的主要宗旨，该计划已经动员16个最大温室气体排放国的研究团队制定截止本世纪中叶的国家深度脱碳方案。


The DDPP shows that deep decarbonization is technically feasible and affordable, and it has identified pathways to 2050 that avoid the traps and temptations of low-hanging fruit and put the major economies on track to full decarbonization by around 2070.	深度脱碳方案计划显示深度脱碳既经济实惠又具备技术可行性，并已指明到2050年避开低垂果实的诱惑和陷阱及让主要经济体走上2070年脱碳正轨的途径。 方案全部依赖于三大支柱：能效方面的重大进步、采用智能材料和智能（信息化）系统；


The pathways all rely on three pillars: major advances in energy efficiency, using smart materials and smart (information-based) systems; zero-carbon electricity, drawing upon each country’s best options, such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage; and fuel-switching from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles and other shifts to electrification or advanced biofuels.	利用风能、太阳能、地热、水力，核能及碳捕获和存储等各国最丰富的资源发展零碳电力； 实现从内燃引擎到电动车的燃料更换以及向电气化或先进生物燃料的其他转型。


A key question for Paris, therefore, is not whether governments achieve 25% or 30% reductions by 2030, but how they intend to do it.	因此，巴黎的关键问题并非政府到2030年是否达到减排25%或30%，而是上述目标通过何种方式实现。


For that, the Paris agreement should stipulate that every government will submit not only an INDC for 2030 but also a non-binding Deep Decarbonization Pathway to 2050.	为此，巴黎协议应该规定各国政府不仅要提交截止2030年的预期国家贡献目标，还要提交截止2050年不具约束力的深度脱碳途径方案。


The US and China have already signaled their interest in this approach.	美中两国已经对此方式表达了兴趣。


In this way, the world can set a course toward decarbonization – and head off the climate catastrophe that awaits us if we don’t.	这样一来，世界就可以走上脱碳之路——并阻止不这样做注定要发生的气候灾难。


The French 9/11	法国的9/11


PARIS – “France’s 9/11.” In the immediate aftermath of the massacre at the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, the comparison with Al Qaeda’s 2001 attack on the United States has taken hold across France.	巴黎—“法国的9/11”，在讽刺杂志《查理周刊》（Charlie Hebdo）大屠杀爆发后，法国人马上把该事件比作2001年基地组织对美国的袭击。


Indeed, the January 7 attack was the most murderous France has known since the end of the Algerian War in 1962.	事实上，1月7日的袭击是法国自1962年阿尔及利亚战争结束以来的最为恶性的杀人事件。


But how accurate is the analogy?	但把它比作9/11正确吗？


At first blush, the comparison seems artificial and far-fetched.	乍一看，这一比喻武断而牵强。


Twelve people died in Paris, whereas nearly 3,000 were killed in the attacks on New York and Washington, DC.	巴黎有十二人死亡，而纽约和华盛顿有近3,000人被杀。


The attackers used Kalashnikovs, not hijacked planes.	巴黎的袭击者使用的是卡拉什尼柯夫冲锋枪，而不是劫持的飞机。


And, unlike the 9/11 attackers, they were all citizens of the country they were attacking.	此外，与9/11袭击者不同，他们都睡被袭击国家的公民。


That is why the attack in Paris 2015 looks more like a combination of two other attacks: the London Underground bombing in 2005 (the terrorists were all national citizens) and the plot executed in Mumbai in 2008 (the terrorists used small arms and targeted people individually).	因此，2015年巴黎袭击事件看上去更像是其他两起袭击事件的合体：2005年伦敦地铁爆炸事件（恐怖分子全部是英国公民）和2008年孟买事件（恐怖分子使用轻型武器针对个别定向目标）。


Yet, despite the major differences, the attacks in Paris and in New York share the same essence.	但是，尽管有这些重大差别，但巴黎袭击和纽约袭击的实质是一样的。


Both cities incarnate a similar universal dream.	两个城市都是相似的大同梦想的化身。


Both are metaphors for light and freedom.	两个城市都是光明和自由的象征。


Both belong to the world, not only to their respective countries.	两个城市都属于全世界而不只属于各自的国家。


Moreover, in both cases, the targets chosen by the terrorists were highly symbolic.	此外，在这两起事件中，恐怖分子选择的目标都具有高度象征意义。


In New York, the Twin Towers embodied capitalist ambition and achievement.	在纽约，双子塔（Twin Towers）象征着资本主义的野心和成就。


In Paris, Charlie Hebdo has given form to the spirit of democratic freedom: the ability to write, draw, and publish anything – even extreme (and at times vulgar) provocations.	在巴黎，《查理周刊》造就了民主自由的精神形式：写、画和出版任何东西的权利——哪怕它们包括了极端的（有时是低俗的）挑衅。


There is a strong sense in Paris, as there was in New York, that the real target was Western civilization itself.	和纽约一样，巴黎弥漫着一种强烈的情绪，袭击的真正目标是西方文明本身。


Like most Frenchmen, I say, out of disgust for the attack and empathy for the victims, Je suis Charlie – a phrase that recalls the newspaper Le Monde’s declaration, immediately after 9/11: Nous sommes tous Américains.	和大部分法国人一样，我怀着对此次袭击的愤怒和对受害者的同情说：“我们都是查理”——《世界报》（Le Monde）曾在9/11发生后立刻宣称，“我们都是美国人。 ”


But I must admit that I did not always feel that way.	但我必须承认，我并不总是这样想。


In 2005, I had reservations about the decision by the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten to publish a series of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad – and about Charlie Hebdo’s choice to reproduce the cartoons the following year.	2005年，我对丹麦《日德兰邮报》（Jyllands-Posten）发表一系列先知穆罕默德讽刺漫画以及2006年《查理周刊》复制这些漫画持保留态度。


At the time, I felt that it was a dangerous and unnecessary – and thus politically irresponsible – provocation.	当时，我认为这是危险且毫无必要的——因此也是政治上不负责任的——挑衅。


One does not play with matches next to a gas pipeline or a bundle of dynamite.	你不能在燃气管道或炸药包边上玩火柴。


Our era is probably much more religious than the eighteenth century ever was.	我们的时代也许比十八世纪以来的任何时候都更加讲宗教。


To invoke Voltaire is one thing, I thought at the time, but to act responsibly may presuppose refraining from insulting what is most sacred to others, whether it be Christ, Muhammad, or the Shoah.	我想，在十八世纪，引用伏尔泰是一回事，但负责任地行动必须以克制不冒犯其他人最珍视的东西为前提，不管这个东西是基督、穆罕默德还是大浩劫（Shoah）。


Today, given the nature of the attack, I leave those reservations behind, though I resist the temptation to sacralize the victims’ memories, as so many Frenchmen are doing.	如今，考虑到此次袭击的性质，我暂且放弃这些保留态度，尽管我仍反对将受害者的纪念神圣化——这正是许多法国人正在做的。


In France, laïcité, wrongly translated in English as “secularism,” is the equivalent of a religion – the religion of the Republic.	在法国，“世俗化”（laïcité）一词——在英语中，它被错误地译为“secularism”——是宗教的同义词，法兰西共和国的宗教。


For the cartoonists of Charlie Hebdo, religion was just another ideology, and they took aim at all three major monotheistic faiths (though perhaps with a greater emphasis on Islam, probably owing to its more visible fundamentalist face).	对《查理周刊》的卡通画家而言，宗教只不过是另一种意识形态，它们的目标对准了所有三大一神论信仰（但也许最着重于伊斯兰教，原因可能是伊斯兰教具有更鲜明的原教旨主义面目）。


So far, a climate of national unity is prevailing in France, just as it did in America immediately after 9/11.	目前，法国呈现出一种国民大团结之势，一如9/11爆发后的美国。


And that is as it should be, for unity is crucial to countering terrorists, whose priority is to create division, incite confrontation, and marginalize moderates.	理应如此，因为团结是对抗恐怖分子的关键。 恐怖分子的首要目标是制造分裂、引发冲突、边缘化温和派。


Indeed, even Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, initially warned against the dangers of an anti-Muslim backlash, stating that a few lost young men were in no way representative of the majority of French Muslims.	事实上，就连极右翼政党国民阵线（National Front ）领导人马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）一开始也警告反穆斯林的副作用，声称一小撮迷失的年轻人决不能代表大部分法国穆斯林。


But how long will national unity prevail?	但国民大团结之势会维持多久？ 法国的殖民主义伤疤比欧洲其他任何国家都要更加新鲜；


The scars of colonialism are fresher in France than anywhere else in Europe; the country has Europe’s largest Muslim minority; and, with moderates seeming particularly weak and divided, the extreme right is cresting in opinion polls.	法国拥有欧洲在最大规模的穆斯林少数群体； 而在温和派看起来十分软弱、各���为政的情况下，极右翼正在民调中节节推进。


These ingredients could constitute a recipe for disaster.	这些要素可能构成又一场灾难。


Already, Le Pen appears to be reverting to form.	勒庞已经故态复萌。


“National unity is a pathetic political maneuver,” she complained, after she was not invited to a rally the day after the attack.	“国民团结是可悲的政治手段，”她在未受邀参与袭击发生后一日的集会后抱怨说。


But, if the right leaders are at the helm, the January 7 attack could spur a renewed sense of collective purpose and political revival.	但是，如果有正确的领导人掌舵，1月7日的袭击可能带来新的集体使命感和政治复兴。


We French must face this terrorist attack the same way the Americans did after 9/11: firmly and clearly, but also with responsibility.	法国必须效仿美国在9/11后的面对恐怖袭击的方式：坚定、明确、负责。


That means, above all, that we must avoid becoming like America in 2003, when President George W. Bush extended the “global war on terror” to Iraq.	这首先意味着我们必须避免沦为2003年的美国——当时小布什总统将“全球反恐战争”扩大到伊拉克。


France’s task now is to uphold the values that have made it a target.	法国的当前任务是捍卫他们视作目标的价值。


The Parkinson’s Mystery	帕金森之谜


JOHANNESBURG – Parkinson’s disease is a degenerative neurological disorder that affects around seven million people globally, and one million in the United States alone, usually afflicting people older than 50.	约翰内斯堡—帕金森病是一种退行性精神障碍，影响着全球七百万人，其中美国就有一百万人，患者年龄通常高于50岁。


The disease strikes 2% of those over age 65, and 5-10% of cases occur in people under 50.	帕金森病在65岁以上人群中患病率为2%，小于50岁人群的病例比例为5—10%。


The cause remains unknown, preventing us from arresting the disease’s development – though environmental and occupational factors loom large in recent research.	患病原因仍然不明，这使得我们无法掌握疾病的发展情况——尽管最新研究表明环境和职业因素很重要。


Chinese and Indian texts from 1000 BC appear to describe a similar affliction.	公元前1000年的中国和印度文档就描述了类似的症状。


But James Parkinson was the first to describe the disease in detail, in 1817.	但第一个详细描述这种疾病的是1817年的詹姆斯·帕金森（James Parkinson）。


Those developing Parkinson’s suffer slow movement, tremors, stiffness, difficulty walking, and gait instability.	帕金森病患者有行动迟缓、颤抖、僵硬、难以走动、不太不稳等症状。


As the disease progresses, it may affect thinking and can also cause behavioral and psychological problems, including dementia, sleep disturbances, and depression, as well as low blood pressure.	随着疾病的发展，思维也会受到影响，并造成行为和心理问题，包括痴呆、睡眠障碍、抑郁以及低血压。


Though many of these symptoms can be ameliorated, therapeutic efficacy often wanes over time.	尽管这些症状中有许多可以减轻，但疗效常常随时间而减小。


The symptoms result from the loss of brain cells generating the neurotransmitter dopamine.	这些症状出现的原因是制造多巴胺（一种神经递质）的脑细胞减少。


Many studies demonstrate that these cells’ degeneration is preceded by cell loss in other brain regions, and even nerve cells in the gastrointestinal system.	许多研究表明这些细胞退化之前会出现其他大脑区域细胞甚至消化系统神经细胞的减少。


This occurs decades before symptoms of motor impairment develop.	这些症状会在行动不便产生之前几十年就已经开始。


Ultimately, people with Parkinson’s develop progressive disability and die prematurely.	最终，帕金森病患者会出现进行性障碍（progressive disability）和早逝。


There is no treatment to slow the inevitable progression of the disease, and we do not know why the dopamine-generating brain cells begin to die off.	对于帕金森病不可避免的发展，目前还没有治疗手段可以延缓，并且我们也不知道产生多巴胺的脑细胞为何会开始死亡。


It is likely that Parkinson’s develops as a result of multiple risk factors.	有可能帕金森病是由多重风险因素引起的。


Demographic traits are one major influence, with the highest rates found in older white men; those with African or Asian ancestry face a much lower risk.	人口统计学线索具有重大影响，白人高龄者发病率最高，非洲或亚洲血统者发病率低得多。


Several gene mutations account for 5-10% of cases.	一些基因突变可以解释5—10%的病例。


Certain diseases or symptoms – including constipation, loss of smell, malignant melanoma, and impaired rapid eye movement (REM) sleep – also appear to be associated with a higher risk of developing the disease.	一些疾病或症状——包括便秘、嗅觉失灵、恶性黑色素瘤和快速动眼（REM）睡眠障碍——也与帕金森病的高发病率有关。


However, most Parkinson’s cases arise without a known cause.	但是，大部分帕金森病例发病原因不明。


Interestingly, the variable most strongly associated with Parkinson’s is smoking, which actually reduces the risk, even after accounting for early death from smoking-related diseases.	有趣的是，与帕金森病联系最紧密的变量是吸烟，而该因素事实上能降低发病几率，即使在考虑到与吸烟有关的疾病导致早逝的因素之后也是如此。


Caffeine also appears to be associated with a modest reduction in Parkinson’s risk.	咖啡因也可以略微降低帕金森病风险。


Despite our frustrating lack of knowledge about the causes of Parkinson’s, there are many promising areas of research.	尽管我们对帕金森病因的知识极度匮乏，但研究已经取得了重大进展。


Exposure to environmental and occupational factors – including pesticides, heavy metals, and solvents – probably play an important causal role, either independently or in tandem with a genetic predisposition to the disease.	环境和职业因素——包括农药、重金属和溶剂——也许是重要诱因，既可能是独立因素，也可能与遗传因素共同作用导致患病。


In the 1980s, six drug addicts developed acute Parkinson-like symptoms after accidentally injecting drugs contaminated with MPTP, which is structurally similar to the pesticide paraquat.	20世纪80年代，六名瘾君子在偶然注射了被MPTP（结构类似于杀虫剂百草枯）污染的毒品后出现了急性帕金森病症状。


Numerous studies then investigated the link between Parkinson’s risk and exposure to pesticides and herbicides; several, though not all, studies demonstrated an increased risk.	随后，神经学家研究了帕金森病风险与杀虫剂和除草剂之间的关系； 不少（尽管不是全部）研究表明两者正相关。


The most consistently implicated pesticides are paraquat, a broad-spectrum herbicide, and maneb, a fungicide that contains manganese.	影响最连贯的杀虫剂是广谱除草剂百草枯以及含锰杀真菌剂代森锰。


The association between occupational exposure to manganese and Parkinson’s-like symptoms was first described in the early 1800s in four manganese-ore crushers.	因职业因素接触锰与帕金森病症状之间的联系最早出现在19世纪初的四名锰矿石碎石工身上。


Exposure to manganese can occur through dust, fumes, and air pollution.	人们可能因为粉尘、烟气和空气污染接触锰。


It is used extensively in the steel and welding industries, where there is a high risk of overexposure to fumes.	锰在钢铁和焊接行业中广泛使用，这些行业暴露于烟气的可能性很高。


Workers in ferromanganese smelters and nearby communities are at particular risk of developing Parkinson’s-like symptoms.	锰铁冶炼工厂及周边地区的工人尤其容易出现帕金森病症状。


Lead, copper, and mercury have also been implicated as risk factors, though more research is needed to confirm these findings.	铅、铜和汞也被认为是风险因素，但仍需要更多的研究证实。


Overexposure to certain solvents may also increase the risk of Parkinson’s.	过多接触某些溶剂也会增加帕金森病几率。


Occupational exposure to hydrocarbon-containing solvents, such as n-hexane, has been associated with earlier-age onset of Parkinson’s.	因职业原因接触含碳氢化合物溶剂（如正己烷）可能会导致低龄帕金森病。


There is some evidence of increased risk associated with exposure to trichloroethylene, commonly used in the textile industry and in the manufacture of pesticides and other chemicals.	一些证据表明接触三氯乙烯（纺织业以及杀虫剂和其他化学制剂行业常用材料）者患帕金森病几率更高。


Up to one-third of America’s water supplies contain trichloroethylene, the most common organic contaminant of groundwater.	美国有多达三分之一的供水含有三氯乙烯，它是地下水中最常见的有机物。


It is only by identifying the various causes of Parkinson’s that we will be able to develop preventive strategies.	只有识别帕金森病的诸多病因，我们才能够制定预防策略。


For example, as studies begin to show consistent associations between the disease and environmental toxins, researchers will design long-term studies to demonstrate the benefit of reducing exposure to these agents, especially in high-risk communities.	比如，研究开始表明该病与环境毒素之间的联系，研究者因此可以设计长期研究证明减少接触这些物质（特别是在高风险社区）的好处。


Much work remains to be done.	仍有许多工作要做。


But the benefits of solving the two-century-old mystery of Parkinson’s causes are potentially enormous.	但解决帕金森病因这一两百年来的谜题能够带来巨大的好处。


Parties and Populists	党派与民粹主义者


This is not a good time for political parties, especially those with traditional orientations.	现在的政党日子并不好过，特别是那些有传统倾向的政党。


Gone are the times in the older democracies when one could count on two major parties – one social democratic, the other more to the right of center – dominating the political scene.	以前的民主国家，两个大党——一个社会民主党，另一个则相对右倾——就能掌控政坛，这样的时代已经一去不返。


In the new democracies of the postcommunist world, such two-party systems never came into being.	在后共产主义的新兴民主国家里，这样的两党制从未出现过。


Nowadays the two largest parties can rarely hope to muster two-thirds of the popular vote. Not infrequently they have to form a “grand coalition.”	如今，两个最大的党派很少有机会抓住三分之二的大众选票，相互组成“大联盟”的情况倒是屡见不鲜。


The rest of the vote is split many ways – unless a political force emerges to cut right through the old party structures by arousing popular nationalist or socialist sentiments, or a combination of the two.	剩下的选票则被多方分割——除非原来的党派结构以外出现一股能够激起大众的民族主义情感和/或社会主义情感的政治力量。


The decline of parties reflects the decline of class.	党派的衰落反映了阶级的衰落。


The old proletariat and the old bourgeoisie are gone. Instead we see what has sometimes been called a “levelled-in middle-class society,” albeit one with an important elite of the super-rich at one end and an underclass at the other.	旧的无产阶级和旧的资产阶级已不复存在，取而代之的是所谓的“椭圆形中产阶级社会”，纵使其两端分别为极其富有的精英阶层和下层社会。


The very structure of society has come to be shaky.	社会结构本身已变得摇摇欲坠。


There are no social groups on which lasting organizations can be built.	现在已经找不到可以建立持久组织的社会群体。


People are, in a sense, socially homeless.	从某种程度上来说，人们在政治上都无家可归。


This means that their interests vary as situations change.	也就是说，人们的利益随着境遇的变化而改变。


It also means that they no longer find a political home in parties, but react to situations, to vague moods, and above all to appeals to sentiments, if not resentments.	这同时也意味着，人们在党派中不再有政治归属，他们的反应取决于境遇、朦胧的情绪，尤其是对感情（甚或不满情绪）的号召力。


This is the condition in which populists thrive.	民粹主义者正是在这样的条件下崭露头角的。


In some cases, they are individuals like President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela (and other Latin American leaders) or Italy’s ex-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Mostly they enter the political scene from the fringes but manage to form a highly personalized grouping, like Jörg Haider and his Austrian Freedom Party, Jean-Marie LePen and his French Nationalists, Andrzej Lepper and his Polish Peasant Party, or Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Direction in Slovakia.	这些民粹主义者有时候是像委内瑞拉总统雨果·查韦斯（以及其他拉美领导人）或意大利前总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼这样的人物，大多数则从边缘进入政治视野，组成了高度个人化的团体，例如约尔克·海德尔和他的奥地利自由党、让-马利·勒庞和他的法兰西民族党、安杰依·莱佩尔和他的波兰农民党、以及斯洛伐克总理罗贝尔特·菲佐和他的方向党。


Many other names could be added to the list.	类似人物还有很多，不再一一列举。


The list tells us two things.	这个名单告诉我们两件事。


One is that a surprising number of populist leaders have managed to get themselves into power in recent years.	一是近年来成功掌权的民粹主义领导人竟然如此众多。


Their success reflects the electorate’s uncertainties and, increasingly, the perceived injustices of globalization, as well as the fear of many about minorities, immigrants, and foreigners in general.	他们的成功反映了选民的不稳定，同时越来越反映出人们认识到了全球化带来的不公，以及许多人对少数民族、移民和所有外国人的恐惧。


These populists promise solutions that dispense with the habits and norms of moderation, notably with centrist democratic policies and an internationalism that seeks to promote peace and prosperity. One sometimes wonders whether we are experiencing not so much the end of history as the end of enlightened history, perhaps of the enlightenment itself.	这些民粹主义者许诺的解决办法要抛开温和的惯例和常规，特别是中间派的民主政策以及寻求和平与繁荣的国际主义，让人禁不住想，我们看到的与其说是历史的终结，还不如说是文明史的终结，或许是文明本身的终结。


But another look at the list of populists tells us something else as well: most of them do not last.	不过这个民粹主义者名单还告诉我们另一件事：他们大多好景不长。


As long as they accept elections and election results, they may be gone almost as quickly as they arrived.	只要他们承认选举和选举结果，垮台的速度几乎可以和他们崛起的速度媲美。


It does not take long for voters to discover that the promises of populists were empty.	选民们用不了多久就会发现民粹主义者的许诺空空如也。


Once in power, they simply make for bad government.	他们一旦掌权，只会形成糟糕的政府。


Taking two recent European examples, Poles and Slovaks will likely soon realize that their new populist governments do more harm than good to the people and their country.	举两个欧洲近期的例子：波兰人和斯洛伐克人多半很快就会发现，他们的民粹主义新政府给人民和国家带来的弊远大于利。


To be sure, this is not much of a consolation.	当然，这种结果谈不上什么安慰。


For one thing, some populist leaders may not accept the result of the next elections.	一方面，某些民粹主义领导人可能不会承认下届选举的结果。


It took Silvio Berlusconi quite a while to admit that he had lost.	西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼就过了很长一段时间才承认失败。


Beyond that, populist episodes are signs of an underlying instability that neither serves national progress nor contributes to international order.	再往深里看，民粹主义者掌权的时期是潜在不稳定性的表象。 这种不稳定既不利于国家进步，也无益于国际秩序。


Austria paid a price for its Haider interlude, and France did not exactly benefit from the runoff between President Jacques Chirac and Le Pen in the last Presidential election.	奥地利为海德尔过渡时期付出了代价，法国也没有从上届总统选举上雅克·希拉克总统与勒庞之间的对决中得到任何好处。


Is there a remedy?	那么有办法补救吗？


Political parties have had a bad press in recent years, and there are good reasons for this.	近年来政治党派的口碑不好，而且事出有因。


Still, they do fulfill a useful function by bundling interests and issues, thereby providing an element of stability in the political system.	但是不管怎样，政治党派把各方面的利益和问题捆在一起，的确发挥了一定的作用，从而为政治制度注入稳定的因素。


Existing parties urgently need to recapture the support of citizens.	现有的党派急切需要重新获得民众的支持。


To succeed requires programmatic clarity, organizational honesty, and an understanding of the concerns of societies that have lost their traditional structures.	要取得成功，必须要有明确的行动纲领和正直的机构组织，并且要理解已失去传统结构的社会所关心的问题。


Those structures are gone forever, but a liberal-democratic order cannot succeed through situational politics built on popular resentments. It requires a sense of the medium term and a commitment to rational debate of issues, for one tradition that can be revived – that of enlightened thinking – is the most important of all.	这些结构已经一去不复返，但是开明、民主的社会秩序不可能通过建立在大众不满情绪上的机会政治实现，而是需要长远的眼光，以及理性思辨的原则，因为一种可以复兴的传统——即文明思考的传统——是最重要的。


Rethinking International Institutions	反思国际机构


OXFORD – When the United Nations and the Bretton Woods institutions were established nearly seven decades ago in the aftermath of World War II, economic and political power was concentrated in the hands of a few “victor” countries, making it relatively easy to reach consensus on how to restore international order.	牛津—近七十年前，在二战结束后，当联合国和布雷顿森林机构成立时，经济和政治实力集中在少数“战胜”国手里，因此关于如何重建国际秩序的问题比较容易达成共识。


But, since then, global governance has become increasingly muddled, impeding progress in areas of worldwide concern.	但是，自此以后，全球治理就变得日益复杂，阻挠了哥全球关注领域的进展。


Not only do more than 190 countries now belong to the UN; publicly funded international institutions have proliferated, with not one multilateral institution having been shuttered since WWII.	如今，不但有190多个国家属于联合国； 更有各种公共资金国际机构层出不穷，而自二战以来还从未有一个多边机构关门。


The result is an inefficient and confusing amalgam of overlapping mandates.	其结果是效率低下，令出多门，莫衷一是。


Meanwhile, significant portions of the international system lack sufficient funding to deliver meaningful progress in critical areas – a problem that will only worsen as the needs and expectations of an ever-expanding global population grow.	与此同时，国际体系中的大部分缺少足够资金在关键领域取得有意义的进展——随着不断增长的全球人口的需要和期望的增加，这一问题只会越来越严重。


In this context, progress on global issues like climate change, cybercrime, income inequality, and the chronic burden of disease are proving elusive.	在这样的情况下，在气候变化、网络犯罪、收入不平等和疾病的长期负担等全球性问题上取得进展变得十分艰难。


To be sure, the efforts of many publicly funded bodies have a real and lasting positive impact on the world.	平心而论，许多公共资金部门的努力给世界带来了持续而积极的影响。


Indeed, international institutions have spearheaded breakthroughs in a wide range of areas, including health, finance, economics, human rights, and peacekeeping.	事实上，国际机构在包括卫生、金融、经济学、人权和维和等多个领域取得了突破。


But such institutions are largely perceived as inaccessible, inefficient, and opaque, leading national governments to neglect them.	但总体而言这些机构被认为是高高在上、效率低下而不透明的，这导致许多国家的政府忽视它们的存在。


As their legitimacy and funding diminish, so does their effectiveness.	而随着合法性和资金的流失，它们的效率也在下降。


Overcoming twenty-first-century challenges will require a comprehensive review and renewal of international institutions.	克服二十一世纪的挑战需要对国际机构进行全面的检视和更新。


In its report Now for the Long Term, the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations – a group of experienced leaders and scholars (including us) convened to help formulate responses to global challenges – proposes mechanisms for undertaking this process.	在名为《从现在着眼于长期》（Now for the Long Term）的报告中，牛津马丁后代委员会（Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations，由包括我们在内的经验丰富的领袖和学者组成，目标是帮助构思应对全球挑战的措施）提出了一些开始这一过程的机制建议。


For example, embedding sunset clauses in the governance structures of publicly funded international institutions would ensure regular reviews of organizational performance and purpose.	比如，在公共资金国际机构的治理结构中加入日落条款能保证定期检查组织表现和目标。


Institutions that have fulfilled their mandate or proved unable to respond effectively to changing demands should be shuttered, and their resources redirected to more productive endeavors.	完成使命的机构或被证明无法有效应对变化的需求的机构应该关闭，它们的资源可以用到生产率更高的地方。


In order to escape that fate, existing institutions must adapt to shifting global power dynamics.	为了摆脱关闭的命运，现有机构就必须适应全球实力动态的变化。


This means increasing representation not only for the major emerging economies, such as China, India, and Brazil, but also for countries like Nigeria and Indonesia, which together are home to more than 400 million people.	这意味着不但中国、印度和巴西等主要新兴经济体代表力的增加，也意味着尼日利亚和印尼（两国人口之和超过四亿）等国家代表力的增加。


International affairs and international organizations largely operate under mid-twentieth-century arrangements, which has two serious shortcomings.	国际事务和国际组织大多按照二十世纪中叶的安排在运转，这里存在两大严重缺陷。


First, countries with a diminishing stake retain disproportionate power.	首先，日益衰落的国家仍拥有不相称的权力。


Second, global decision-making now involves four times as many countries as it did in the immediate post-war era, not to mention a plethora of non-governmental organizations and civil-society groups, making for a messy – and often unproductive – process.	其次，如今全球决策所包括的国家数量是二战刚结束时的四倍，更不用说还有众多非政府组织和公民社会团体了，这导致决策过程混乱，且常常无功而返。 。


With the world’s problems becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, global decision-making processes must be as streamlined and efficient as possible.	世界面临的问题日益复杂和相互关联，因此全球决策过程也需要尽可能地低成本高效能。


When numerous committees meet in parallel, the countries with the largest teams of experts dominate proceedings, effectively locking most countries out of key decisions and impeding meaningful dialogue.	在各种委员会互相交错时，拥有最庞大专家团的国家就主宰了决策过程，在事实上将大部分国家排除在重大决策之外，也阻挠了有意义的对话。


In order to increase the productivity of global negotiations, the Oxford Martin Commission recommends creating coalitions of motivated countries, together with other actors, such as cities and businesses.	为了增加全球谈判的效果，牛津马丁委员会建议成立积极国家与其他行动方（如城市和企业）组成的联盟。


As outcomes improve, international bodies’ legitimacy would be strengthened, which over time would enhance countries’ willingness to delegate powers to them.	随着结果的改善，国际机构的合法性将得到加强，假以时日，这将增加各国将权力授予国际机构的意愿。


Moreover, the commission proposes creating voluntary platforms to facilitate the creation of global treaties in vital areas.	此外，牛津马丁委员会还建议成立自愿平台促成矛盾领域的全球性条约。


For example, a taxation and regulatory exchange would help countries to tackle tax avoidance and harmonize corporate taxation, while promoting information sharing and cooperation.	比如，税收和监管交流有助于各国应对偷漏税，协调公司税，同时促进信息共享和合作。


Likewise, a cyber-security data-sharing platform could prove vital to understanding, preventing, and responding to cyber attacks.	类似地，网络安全数据共享平台能在认识、防止、和应对网络攻击方面起到关键作用。


As governments learn to collaborate with one another and with other actors, such as businesses and civil-society groups, faith in the power of international cooperation would be restored.	随着各国政府尝试彼此以及与其他行东方（如企业和公民社会团体）合作，对全球合作力量的信任将重新建立起来。


In such an environment, breaking the gridlock on urgent global issues would be far easier than it has become in the current atmosphere of disillusionment and mistrust.	在这样的环境下，打破紧迫全球问题的僵局将比现在不再抱有幻想和不再信任的环境下容易得多。


The simple fact is that with interconnectedness comes interdependence.	简单的事实是，随互相关联一起到来的是互相依赖。


In order to protect the global commons, world leaders must pursue shared solutions as inclusively and efficiently as possible – a process that can be accomplished only through international institutions.	为了保护全球人民，全球领导人必须追求尽可能包容和高效的共同方案——只有通过国际机构才能实现这一过程。


Failure to do so would threaten the tremendous progress that globalization has facilitated in recent decades.	在这方面的失败将威胁到近几十年来全球化进程所取得的巨大进展。


The necessary changes will not happen overnight.	必要的改变不可能一夜之间出现。


But if governments, businesses, and civil society work together, they are feasible – promising a more sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous future for all.	但如果政府、企业和公民社会精诚合作，我们就可以预见它们的到来，为全人类带来更加可持续、包容和繁荣的未来。


The Other Nigeria	尼日利亚的另一面


LAGOS – Nigeria has been getting a lot of bad press lately, owing largely to the militant Islamist group Boko Haram’s abduction of more than 200 schoolgirls in April, part of a brutal campaign of kidnappings, bombings, and murder.	拉各斯——最近尼日利亚深受负面舆论困扰，主要是因为激进伊斯兰组织博科圣地4月绑架了200多名在校女生，此外还发生了一系列残酷的绑架、爆炸和谋杀活动。


But, while these developments certainly merit international concern, they should not be allowed to obscure Nigeria’s recent achievements – or spur the outside world to turn its back on the country.	尽管事态发展注定会引起国际社会的忧虑，但这些不应埋没尼日利亚近来取得的成就——更不应该促使外界放弃对尼日利亚的援助。


What is lost in most discussions about Nigeria today is the strong economic record that it has established over the last decade.	今天的讨论绝少提到过去十年来尼日利亚强劲的经济发展记录。


In fact, a recent year-long study of the country by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) showed that, over the next 15 years, Nigeria has the potential to become a major global economy.	事实上，麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）最近一项对该国为期一年的研究显示，在未来15年中，尼日利亚具备成为全球重要经济体的潜力。


With roughly 170 million inhabitants, Nigeria has Africa’s largest population.	尼日利亚拥有居非洲首位的约1. 7亿人口。


But it has only recently been acknowledged as having the continent’s largest economy – 26th in the world – following the release of “rebased” data putting GDP at $510 billion last year.	但只有当确认该国GDP去年高达5100亿美元的“修订”数据公布后，尼日利亚才被外界承认为非洲最大（世界范围内排名第26）的经济体。


MGI estimates that, in 2013-2030, Nigeria could expand its economy by more than 6% annually, with its GDP exceeding $1.6 trillion – moving it into the global top 20.	麦肯锡全球研究院预测2013-2030年，尼日利亚年经济增长率可能超过6%，国内生产总值超过16，000亿美元——跻身全球20强之列。


Moreover, if Nigeria’s leaders work to ensure that growth is inclusive, an estimated 30 million people could escape poverty.	此外，如果尼日利亚的领导人能确保经济增长具有包容性，估计脱贫人数将达到3，000万。


The problem is that Nigeria remains subject to outdated assumptions, which are limiting its prospects, especially among foreign companies and investors.	问题在于外界，特别是外国企业和投资者，依然对尼日利亚抱有过时的看法，而这影响了尼日利亚的经济发展前途。


For example, many believe that Nigeria is a petro-economy, wholly at the mercy of the world oil market.	比方说很多人仍以为尼日利亚属于石油经济，摆脱不了国际石油市场的摆布。


But the resources sector accounts for only 14% of GDP – meaning that, while oil production remains a critical source of revenue and exports, the Nigerian economy is far more diverse than many assume.	但资源行业实际仅占该国GDP的14%——也就是说尽管石油生产依然是收入和出口的重要来源，但尼日利亚经济远比很多人想象的更加多元化。


A related myth is that Nigeria’s economic growth is unstable, with large and unpredictable shifts in performance from year to year.	与此相关的错误认识是尼日利亚的经济增长很不稳定，不同年份可能出现不可预测的大的变化。


In fact, as Nigeria has diversified its economy and detached public-spending plans from current oil prices (part of a 2004 budget reform), it has become increasingly stable, both economically and fiscally.	事实上，随着尼日利亚经济日趋多元化及公共开支与当前油价脱钩（2004年财政预算改革的组成部分），尼国内经济及财政稳定性也不断增强。


Indeed, in recent years (2010-13, in “re-based” terms), GDP has grown by a steady 6-7%, owing more to rising productivity than to favorable demographics.	事实上，（根据2010-14年的“修订”数据）尼日利亚近年来已经实现GDP 6-7%的稳定增长，与其说这归功于有利的人口结构，还不如说归功于生产率的提高。


Finally, there is a general misunderstanding about the Nigerian economy’s evolution.	最后，人们普遍误解了尼日利亚经济的发展变化。


Despite widespread poverty and low (though improving) productivity in almost all industries outside of the resources sector, Nigeria has a rapidly growing consumer class that will play an increasingly important role in driving growth.	虽然资源领域外几乎所有行业普遍为贫困和低效所困（尽管效率在不断提高），但尼日利亚却有着快速成长的消费群体，必将在推动增长中扮演重要角色。


By 2030, more than 34 million households, with about 160 million people, are likely to be earning more than $7,500 annually, making them aspiring consumers.	到2030年，超过3，400万个家庭，约1. 6亿人，可能年收入超过7，500美元，他们也因此成为有强烈意愿的消费者。


This implies a potential rise in consumption from $388 billion annually to $1.4 trillion – a prospect that is already attracting investments by multinational consumer-goods producers and retailers.	这意味着年消费额可能会从3，880亿美元增长到14，000亿美元——如此诱人的前景已经吸引跨国消费品生产商和零售商投资尼日利亚。


Nigeria’s prospects are enhanced further by its strategic location, which will enable it to take advantage of booming demand across Africa and other parts of the developing world.	尼日利亚优越的地理位置进一步保障了它的发展前景，非洲大陆和其他发展中国家蓬勃发展的需求都能够惠及尼日利亚。


Add to that a large and growing population and an entrepreneurial spirit, and the future looks bright.	再加上庞大且不断增长的人口和创业精神，尼日利亚的未来是光明的。


In order to unleash this potential and ensure that the next decade of growth brings sharp reductions in poverty, Nigeria’s leaders must pursue reforms aimed at increasing productivity, raising incomes, and delivering essential services like health care and education more efficiently.	为了充分发挥潜力并确保今后十年经济增长能显著降低贫困，尼日利亚领导人必须着力推进以提高生产率、增加收入及有效提供医疗保健和教育等基本服务为目的的改革。


For example, to increase productivity and incomes in the agricultural sector, the government could pursue land-title reform aimed at opening more farmland without deforestation; expand the use of fertilizer and mechanized equipment; and support a shift to more profitable crops.	比方说为了提高农业部门的生产率和收入，政府可以推行在保持森林面积的前提下开垦更多农田的土地所有权改革； 扩大使用化肥和机械化设备；


Moreover, improvements in distribution and marketing would allow farmers to keep more of the proceeds from the sale of their crops.	并支持农民转种更有利可图的作物。 此外，改革销售及营销领域将使作物出售的收益更多地归农民所有。


In urban areas, productivity suffers from a high degree of informal employment, sometimes even by major corporations.	在城市区域，严重的非正式就业在很大程度上影响着生产效率，有时就连大公司都无法免俗。


This keeps too many Nigerians in low-skill, low-paying jobs and deprives the economy of the dynamism that competitive small and medium-size enterprises create.	这种现状使众多尼日利亚人在低技术、低工资的岗位就业，具有很强竞争力的中小企业带来的经济活力被剥夺。


The spate of Internet startups that have emerged in Nigeria demonstrates that the skills are there, and tapping Nigeria’s diaspora can augment that talent pool.	接二连三地出现在尼日利亚的互联网创业公司已经证明技术人才已经存在，发掘尼日利亚侨民能有效扩充人才库。


To make it easier to do business in Nigeria, the government also will need to streamline processes for registering and running a legal business and, together with aid agencies and the private sector, increase investment in infrastructure.	为使尼日利亚的商业往来更加便利，政府还需要和援助机构及私营部门一道简化合法企业的注册及运营手续并加大投资基础设施建设。


It will also need to intensify its fight against endemic corruption, which represents a tax on all businesses.	政府还要加紧打击腐败，腐败相当于加重所有企业的税收负荷。


Finally, to promote inclusive growth – essential to relieving human suffering and mitigating social and political tensions – Nigeria must improve public-service delivery dramatically.	最后，为促进对减轻民众痛苦及社会政治紧张所必须的经济包容性增长，尼日利亚必须显著改善国内公共服务。


The fact that Nigeria lags behind countries that spend comparable amounts on public services proves that it has scope to improve.	尼日利亚落后于公共服务领域经费相当国家的现实表明它有余地提高。


All that is needed to ensure that assistance – from seed subsidies to immunization – reaches those who need it most, regardless of where they live in the country, is a strong commitment from Nigeria’s leaders to build more effective and transparent government agencies.	尼日利亚领导人所要做的是坚定建设更加透明有效的政府机构，确保将从良种补贴到免疫经费在内的援助发放给最需要的人，无论这些人生活在国家的哪个角落。


Nigerians do not need sympathy or even outrage from the global community. What they need is support and encouragement.	尼日利亚人需要国际社会的支持和鼓励，而不需要外界的同情乃至愤怒。


Only with stable and inclusive growth can Nigeria escape the clutches of brutal forces like Boko Haram and give its citizens the security and prosperity that they deserve.	只有借助包容性稳定增长尼日利亚才能逃脱博科圣地等暴力组织的魔掌，赋予尼日利亚人他们理应享有的安全与繁荣。


The Fall of the House of Samuelson	萨缪尔逊殿堂的倒塌


LONDON – To read The Samuelson Sampler in the shadow of the Great Recession is to gain a glimpse into the mindset of a bygone era.	伦敦—在大萧条的阴影下阅读《萨缪尔逊采样器》（The Samuelson Sampler）是为了一撇过去的时代的思维。


The sample is of the late Paul Samuelson’s weekly columns for the magazine Newsweek from 1966-1973.	样本是已故的保罗·萨缪尔逊（Paul Samuelson）1966—1973年间为《新闻周刊》（Newsweek）杂志撰写的每周专栏。


Samuelson, a Nobel laureate, was the doyen of American economists: his famous textbook, Economics went through 14 editions in its author’s lifetime, introducing future economists worldwide to the rudiments of their craft.	萨缪尔逊是诺贝尔奖获得者、美国经济学家的翘楚：他的著名教科书《经济学》（Economics）在他生前出版了14版，将全世界无数晚辈经济学家引入经济学殿堂。


If not the sole originator, he was the great popularizer of the “neoclassical synthesis” – the mix of neoclassical and Keynesian economics that defined the mainstream of the field for 50 years.	就算不是“新古典综合派”的唯一创始人，他也是这一学派的发扬光大者。 新古典综合派结合了新古典和凯恩斯主义经济学，占据经济学主流50年之久。


Samuelson was a convinced Keynesian, though in a limited sense.	萨缪尔逊被认为是凯恩斯主义者，不过有所保留。


He dismissed most of Keynes’s attack on the orthodox economics of his day as unnecessary, writing “had Keynes [started] with the simple statement that he found it realistic to assume that money wages…were sticky and resistant to downward movements...most of his insights would have remained just as valid.”	他反对大部分当时凯恩斯对正统经济学的攻击，认为这毫无必要。 他写道，“如果凯恩斯[一开始]做出一个简单陈述，指出他发现假设货币工资……是刚性的，难以向下调整这一假设是符合现实的，那么他的大部分洞见将仍然是站得住脚的。


For Samuelson, Keynes’s real contribution was the tools he gave governments to prevent depressions.	”对萨缪尔逊来说，凯恩斯的真正贡献是他给予政府的防止萧条的工具。


Reading The Samuelson Sampler, it is extraordinary to realize just how confident economists of his generation were that the New Economics (as the Keynesian approach was called in America) had solved the problem of depression and mass unemployment.	读了《萨缪尔逊取样器》，一个突出的感觉是发现他这一代经济学家对新经济学（New Economics，美国对凯恩斯主义方法的称呼）解决了衰退和大规模失业问题抱有怎样的信心。


As Samuelson put it in his 1973 introduction, “the specter of a repetition of the depression of the 1930s has been reduced to a negligible probability.”	萨缪尔逊在其1973年的引论中说，“20世纪30年代萧条死灰复燃的幽灵已经降低到了负概率。 ”


Yes, there would still be small fluctuations; but, as he wrote in 1966, “Great Depressions – cumulative slumps that feed on themselves – are indeed extinct.”	诚然，小波动仍会发生； 但是，如他在1966年所写，“大萧条——互相强化的累积下滑——确实已是过去。


The reason was that governments now had the tools, especially discretionary fiscal policy, to check any incipient downturn.	”原因在于现在的政府拥有遏制一切初期衰退的工具，尤其是自由裁量财政政策。


“What is important about the budget,” he said in 1970, “is whether it is inflationary or deflationary, not whether [it is] balanced or unbalanced.”	“对预算来说，重要的是，”他在1970年说，“这是通胀还是通缩，而不是[预算]平衡还是不平衡。


In other words, “A deficit in a good cause is good business.”	”他还说，“理由充分的赤字是一件好事。


How many economists or politicians believe this today?	”如今还有多少经济学家或政治家相信这一点？


Because governments knew how to stop depressions, voters would insist that they use this knowledge.	由于政府知道如何阻止萧条，选民将坚持要求政府使用这一知识。


“If printing bits of green can save banks and business from ruin,” he argued in 1966, “today’s electorate will ensure that either party in power will [so] act.”	“如果印钞可以让银行和企业免于灭顶之灾，”他在1966年指出，“那么今天的选民将会保证任何上台的政党[这样]做。 ”


This was irrespective, Samuelson thought, of the ideological preferences of those in power.	萨缪尔逊认为，这一点无关于掌权政党的意识形态偏好。


The Republican Richard Nixon was elected US President in 1968 on a platform of scaling down the Democrats’ expensive Great Society programs.	共和党的尼克松1968年当选美国总统，靠的是缩减民主党的扩张性大社会（Great Society）计划。


“I am not an economic determinist,” Samuelson wrote in November 1968, “But I can predict with confidence that Richard Nixon will be using the New Economics if only for the reason that new times make it inescapable.”	“我不是经济决定论者，”萨缪尔逊在1968年11月写道，“但我可以信心满满地预言，尼克松将会利用新经济学，因为在新时代，这是不可避免的。 ”


And so it turned out.	确实如此。


Rather than deflating the economy, Nixon took America off the gold standard in 1971 and imposed wage, price, and import controls, proclaiming bluntly, “I am now a Keynesian in economics.”	尼克松没有让经济通缩，而是在1971年让美国摆脱金本位，并采取了工资、价格和进口管制，同时又掷地有声地宣称“在经济问题上，我不是凯恩斯主义者。 ”


But that was the last of Samuelson’s successful predictions.	但这是萨缪尔逊最后一次成功的预言。


Less than a decade after his Newsweek columns ended, the New Economics, which he had extolled as a permanent addition to knowledge, was in flight from the ideological assaults of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.	他的《新闻周刊》专栏结束不到十年，被他赞美为永久知识增量的新经济学就在里根和撒切尔夫人的意识形态攻势下狼狈不堪。


Despite his faith that voters would not allow a return to depression, Thatcher’s third election victory, in 1987, came just after unemployment in the United Kingdom had peaked at three million, the highest level since the 1930s.	尽管他坚定地认为选民不会允许萧条回归，但1987年，在英国失业人数达到300万的20世纪30年代以来的历史高峰时，撒切尔仍获得了第三次选举胜利。


So what went wrong?	那么，哪里不对？


“Still to be argued out within the guild [of economists],” Samuelson wrote in 1969, “is the proper quantitative potency of monetary versus fiscal policy.”	“仍需在[经济学家]圈子内部澄清的是，”萨缪尔逊在1969年写道，“货币政策与财政政策的合理量化效力之争。


This question eventually was resolved in favor of monetary policy.	”这一问题最终以有利于货币政策的结论结束。


More important, as he pointed out in 1970, was that “even Keynes could not guarantee that mankind would live happily ever after.	更重要的是，他在1970年指出，“即使是凯恩斯也无法保证人类能永远幸福地生活下去。


He left us with an unsolved problem.	他带着一个未解决的问题离开了我们。


How can we have full employment and also price stability?”	我们如何实现充分就业和物价稳定兼得？


Reluctantly, Samuelson concluded that there needed to be permanent controls over prices and wages to stop cost-push inflation.	”萨缪尔逊不情愿地推论说，需要永久控制物价和工资以阻止成本推动型通胀。


“Our mixed economy,” he wrote in 1970, “does not know how to have a satisfactory incomes policy that will back up monetary and fiscal policy....Here then lies the unsolved frontier in modern economics.”	“我们的混合经济，”他在1970年写道，“并不知道如何形成能支持货币和财政政策的令人满意的收入政策……这就是现代经济学未解决的前沿。 ”


It was the same frontier that Friedrich von Hayek first surveyed in The Road to Serfdom in 1944.	正也是哈耶克1944年在其《通向奴役之路》（The Road to Serfdom）中首次研究的前沿。


Hayek feared that deliberate policies to maintain full employment would lead to increasing state encroachment on the free market and political liberty.	哈耶克担心，为维持充分就业而有意为之的政策将导致国家日益侵蚀自由市场和政治自由。


It was this fear that led, from the 1980s onwards, to the piecemeal abandonment of the policy system of the mixed economy – indeed, to the dismantling of the mixed economy itself.	正是这一担忧从20世纪80年代以来导致了逐渐放弃混合经济的政策体系——事实上，是废除了混合经济本身。


Samuelson was half right: Governments do know how to stop a slide into another Great Depression.	萨缪尔逊对了一半：政府确实知道如何阻止滑向另一场大萧条。


They used this knowledge in the autumn of 2008 and 2009, which is why we had only a Great Recession.	它们在2008年秋和2009年使用了这一知识，因此我们只是经历了大衰退。


But, contrary to what Samuelson believed, governments are haunted by fears of large fiscal deficits.	但是，与萨缪尔逊所认为的相反，政府无法摆脱对大规模财政赤字的担忧。


With few exceptions, they have not been prepared to use fiscal policy to jolt their economies out of post-crisis stagnation.	除了极少数例外，它们没有准备好使用财政政策将经济带出后危机时代的停滞。


Instead, they have relied on monetary expansion, which is politically more acceptable, but also much weaker in its effects, as it is undermined – just as Keynes predicted – by “several slips between the cup and the lip.”	相反，它们依赖货币扩张，货币扩张在政治上更加容易接受，但效果要差得多，因为它——凯恩斯所预言——因为“数次功败垂成”而大受打击。


More important, governments have abandoned the goal of full employment; as a result, all of those bits of interventionist policy previously thought necessary to keep economic activity on an even keel have gone by the wayside as well.	更重要的是，政府已经放弃了充分就业的目标。 结果，此前认为是保持经济活动平稳的必要条件的所有干涉主义政策也都靠边站了。


The New Economics may be temporarily resurrected to deal with extreme situations, but policymakers no longer take precautions to prevent extreme situations from arising.	新经济学也许会短暂地复兴以应对极端情况，但决策者已不再注意防范极端情况的产生。


How to do this, while preserving freedom and efficiency, is now the “unsolved frontier in modern economics.”	如何在保证自由和效率的同时做到这一点，是如今的“现代经济学未解决的前沿。 ”


Microeconomics for All	人人适用的微观经济学


TOULOUSE – For the last half-century, the world’s leading universities have taught microeconomics through the lens of the Arrow-Debreu model of general competitive equilibrium.	发自图卢兹——在过去半个世纪，全球顶尖学府都通过阿罗-德布鲁（Arrow-Debreu）一般竞争性均衡模型的视角来教授微观经济学。


The model, formalizing a central insight of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, embodies the beauty, simplicity, and lack of realism of the two fundamental theorems of competitive equilibrium, in contrast to the messiness and complexity of modifications made by economists in an effort to capture better the way the world actually functions.	相对于经济学家们为更好地掌握世界真实运作方式而进行的纷繁复杂修正，该模型作为亚当·斯密《国富论》核心观点的形式化体现，表现了竞争性均衡两大基本原理的美感，简约，以及缺乏真实感。


In other words, while researchers attempt to grasp complex, real-world situations, students are pondering unrealistic hypotheticals.	换句话说，当研究人员试图把握复杂的现实状况时，学生却在进行不切实际的推理。


This educational approach stems largely from the sensible idea that a framework for thinking about economic problems is more useful to students than a ragbag of models.	这种教育方式主要源于一个看似合情合理的观点，认为一个针对经济问题的思考框架比一堆杂乱无章的模型对学生更有裨益。


But it has become burdened with another, more pernicious notion: as departures from the Arrow-Debreu model become more realistic, and thus more complex, they become less suitable for the classroom.	但这也衍生出另一种更有害的观念：既然阿罗-德布鲁模型之外的思考变得更现实也因此更为复杂，那就不适用于课堂教学。


In other words, “real” microeconomic thinking should be left to the experts.	换句话说，“真正的”微观经济学思考应该留给专家们。


To be sure, basic models – for example, theories of monopoly and simple oligopoly, the theory of public goods, or simple asymmetric-information theory – have some educational value. But few researchers actually work with them.	可以肯定的是，基本模型——例如垄断与简单的寡头垄断理论，公共产品理论，或简单的信息不对称理论——都有一定的教育价值，但研究者其实很少在工作中用到这些。