Conventional wisdom among economists and investors has a long record of failing to spot major turning points; so the near-universal belief today that Greece faces permanent depression is no reason to despair.	经济学家和投资者的传统智慧常常无法辨认重要转折点； 因此，完全不必担心当下几乎人人都持有的观点：希腊面临持久萧条。


Money-Market Resistance	货币市场基金的抵抗


CAMBRIDGE – The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently rejected proposed rules aimed at making money-market funds safer in a financial crisis – a rejection that has caused consternation among observers and other regulators.	发自剑桥——美国证券交易委员会最近否决了一系列旨在令货币市场基金在金融危机中更加安全的提案，令众多观察员和其他监管者大惊失色。


Given the risks that money market funds can pose to the global financial system, as shown by their destabilizing role in the 2008 financial crisis, it is not hard to see why they are worried.	而考虑到货币市场基金可能为全球金融系统带来的风险——正如其在2008年所扮演的不稳定角色—自然也不难明白人们为何如此忧虑。


Money-market funds take excess cash from investors and use it to purchase short-term IOUs from businesses, banks, and other financial institutions.	货币市场基金从投资者处吸收多余的资金来从企业，银行和其他金融机构购买短期金融要求权（IOU）。


They mimic bank accounts by allowing investors to write checks and promise that their investment’s value will not fall.	他们通过允许投资者写支票来模仿银行账户，并承诺后者的投资价值不会下跌。


In 2012, American “prime” money-market funds, which buy bank and corporate debt, were worth nearly $1.5 trillion.	在2012年，购买银行和企业债券的美国“主要”货币市场基金规模达1. 5万亿美元。


The money flowing through these funds went to many of the world’s largest banks, including not just the obvious US suspects (JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citi), but also major European and Japanese banks such as Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Tokyo, Sumitomo, Credit Suisse, and ING.	通过这些基金的资金流通往全球许多大型银行，不仅包括常说的那几个美国巨头（摩根大通，美洲银行和花旗银行），还有英格兰银行、德意志银行、东京银行，住友银行，瑞士瑞信银行和荷兰ING银行等欧日大型银行。


These six international banks alone accounted for nearly 20% of the prime money-market funds’ value.	单单后面这六家国际银行就占了主要货币市场基金总市值的近20%。


Many readers know how money-market funds work: An investor buys a $1.00 share from the XYZ fund, which keeps each share’s value at a constant $1.00, allowing the investor to believe that the money – invested in a pool of safe, secure, but not always government-guaranteed assets – is on deposit.	许多读者知道货币市场基金如何运作：一个投资者从某基金买了价值1美元的份额，而基金则一直保持每个份额都值1美元，令投资者相信自己的钱——投资在一揽子安全，可靠但不常有政府担保的资产上——是存款。


Even if the asset pool declines in value, the fund’s managers keep the value of each share at $1.00 by rounding upward the fund’s real value.	即便这个资产组合的价值下跌，基金经理也会通过将基金实际价值凑整的方式来将每份价值维持在1美元。


If the fund’s losses are big enough that rounding off still leaves it short of a stable $1.00 value, the fund “breaks the buck.”	如果基金的损失使其即便凑整也无法维持稳定的1美元价值，基金就“跌破面值”了。


That happened when Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008.	这种情况在2008年9月雷曼兄弟破产时就出现了。


The Reserve Fund, a well-established money-market fund with too many unpaid IOUs from Lehman, could not keep its value steady. It broke the buck.	“储备基金”这家持有过多未支付雷曼兄弟金融要求权的老牌货币市场无法维持自身价值稳定，出现了跌破面值的状况。


All money-market funds then became suspect, and many investors fled – withdrawing one-third of a trillion dollars in a single week.	所以货币市场基金都因此遭到了质疑，许多投资者闻风撤资——仅仅一个星期内就赎回了3000多亿美元。


Since much of the money-market funds’ assets are IOUs from the world’s biggest banks, the withdrawals weakened the already-shaky global banking system.	由于大多数货币市场基金的资产都是那些来自各大银行的金融要求权，赎回行动削弱了本已摇摇欲坠的全球银行系统。


The Federal Reserve, seeking to stem the growing panic and stabilize the American and international banking system, promptly guaranteed the value of all money-market funds.	为了遏制恐慌的蔓延并稳定美国和国际银行系统，美联储则迅速为所有货币市场资金的价值做了担保。


The proposals that the SEC rejected were aimed at making money-market funds more robust by requiring that each fund maintain capital reserves or let its value “float” – and not be rounded up – to reflect its true, underlying risk.	而美国证券交易委员会所否决的几个提案正是为了让货币市场基金更加稳固，要求每个基金保持资本储备或者任其“浮动”——而不是凑整——来体现真实和潜在的风险。


The proposal would also have required that money-market funds hold back a fraction of some redemptions, thereby making investors take some risk that funds might not have complete transactional liquidity if their investments weakened.	提案同时也要求货币市场基金拒绝某些赎回行动中的一部分交易，从而令投资者们承担更多的风险——如果他们的投资受损的话基金或许不会有完全的交易流动性。


A majority of the commissioners turned down the proposals after substantial lobbying from the mutual-fund industry.	在共有基金行业的有力游说下，委员会的大多数委员否决了这些提案。


If money-market funds had to maintain capital reserves, industry representatives argued, yields to investors would decline and the industry’s profits would suffer.	那些行业的代理人认为，如果货币市场基金需要保持资本储本金的话，投资者的收益和行业的利润都将受损。


And, if retail investors saw their money-market funds’ values declining from the amount that they had invested, and if they knew that they could not get all of their money back immediately, the funds would become less attractive.	同时如果零售投资者发现原本投资的货币市场基金价值出现了下跌，如果他们知道自己无法迅速把自己的钱赎回来，那么这些基金的吸引力就会下降。


Investors might choose other places for their excess cash, like banks.	投资者会选择其他地方来配置自己的多余现金，比如银行。


Banks are obliged to hold reserves, maintain capital, and pay deposit insurance to ensure that they can honor their deposits.	银行有义务去持有储备金，维持资本，并支付储蓄保险以确保能为这些储蓄负责。


The mutual-fund industry, one can assume, feared that the SEC’s rules would induce customers to redirect much of their cash directly into banks.	因此可以推测，共同基金行业害怕证券交易委员会的监管规则会令消费者将大部分现金转入银行。


As a result of the SEC’s inaction, money-market funds will continue to operate outside the scope of bank-style rules on capital and reserves, even though investors treat them like bank accounts.	即便投资者依然将其当作银行账户般看待，但由于证券交易委员会的不做为，货币市场基金将继续在银行式的资本和储备规则之外运作。


Unlike banks, though, they do not pay the government to insure their investors.	跟银行不同的是，他们并不会像政府付钱来为投资者担保。


But the 2008 financial crisis showed that, when push comes to shove, the government will backstop money-market funds nonetheless.	但2008年的金融危机显示，当情况危急时，政府依然会为货币市场基金撑腰。


The rejected proposals are thus good policy: money-market funds should be made safer – via capital requirements and liquidity restrictions – because they already receive a de facto government guarantee.	因此被否决的提案都是些好政策：货币市场基金应该变得更加安全——通过对资本的要求以及流动性限制——因为他们已经获得了一个事实上的政府担保。


Their steady value makes them appear safer to investors than they are to the world’s financial system.	它们的稳定价值使它们看上去对投资者显得更安全——对全球金融系统就难说了。


The SEC’s rejection of the proposed rules demonstrates the power of concerted lobbying – and that concentrated interests often trump diffuse benefits.	证券交易委员会的否决行动显示出协商一致的游说行动——以及集中的利益往往会胜过分散的利益。


Typically, an interest group lobbies Congress, blandishing persuasive arguments, campaign contributions, and other support; often enough members – or enough key members – come to see the merit of the group’s point of view (or at least vote as if they do).	通常来说，一个利益集团游说国会，组织有说服力的论据，发起筹款以及其他支持； 往往有足够的议员——或者足够的核心议员——会看到该集团观点的可取之处（���至少看似明白地投下一票）。


Meanwhile, ordinary citizens do not notice unless the issue receives significant media attention.	与此同时，普通市民直到情况受到媒体极大关注时才注意到这些事情。


Often no one lobbies the other side of the issue.	往往也没有人去游说并陈述事情的另外一面。


One might think that banks would counter-balance the mutual-fund industry’s lobbying efforts, because the likely effect of forcing money-market funds to pay for more of their systemic costs would be to expand funds flowing directly to banks.	有人或许会认为银行会抵消共同基金行业的游说努力，因为迫使货币市场基金支付更多系统成本可能会扩大直接流入银行的资金流。


But inflows through money-market funds are not so bad for banks, which get the cash without having to set aside reserves or pay for deposit insurance.	但以货币市场基金形式流入的资金对于银行来说其实并不太坏，因为后者无须为这些现金进行资本储备或者支付存款保险。


Some banks may even prefer these flows to direct deposits.	一些银行甚至更喜欢这类现金流而非直接存款。


So the mutual-fund industry had the regulators all to itself.	因此共同基金行业令监管者完全倒向了他们这边。 其游说者告诉一众证券交易委员会委员说没有比当前法规在确保资金安全方面更完善的了；


Its lobbyists told the SEC commissioners that current rules already did everything possible to ensure safety; that retail investors want money-market funds’ steady value; that change would hurt all investors; and that the recent Dodd-Frank financial-reform legislation disrupts regulators’ ability to bail out money-market funds next time.	说改革会伤害所有投资者； 说最近通过的Dodd-Frank金融改革立法削弱了监管者下次援助货币市场基金的能力。


Other regulators were watching,  as were academics and journalists – and some regulators may now feel compelled to take over the money-market safety rules from the SEC or push the SEC back into action.	和学者和记者一样，其他监管者都在旁观这一切——有些监管者可能现在会觉得必须去从证券交易委员会处接管货币市场安全法规或者促使委员会有所作为。


With no one having a direct financial interest in the outcome pressing an alternative view, the SEC’s initial decision was as predictable as it was bad.	由于没有人在推动另一个观点方面拥有直接的金融利益，委员会最初的决定也就变得毫无悬念，正如我们知道这个决定必将很糟糕那样。


Transatlantic Free Trade?	跨大西洋自由贸易？


MADRID – This month, the United States National Intelligence Council released a sobering report entitled Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.	马德里—本月，美国国家情报委员会公布了一份不容乐观的报告：《全球趋势2030：不一样的世界》（Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds）。


Most important, according to the authors, if current trends continue, Asia could soon surpass North America and Europe in global power.	作者所指出的最重要的一点是，如果当前趋势继续下去，亚洲将很快超过北美和欧洲成为全球一极。


It will have a higher GDP, larger population, higher military spending, and more technological investment.	亚洲将拥有更高的GDP、更多的人口、更大的军事支出和更多的技术投资。


In this geopolitical context, Europe and the US need each other more than ever, making greater transatlantic cooperation crucial.	在这样的地缘政治环境下，欧洲和美国比从前更加需要彼此，跨大西洋合作比以前更加重要。


This seems to be the approach that inspired outgoing US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent speech at the Brookings Institution on US-European relations.	这似乎也是即将离任的美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿在布鲁克林研究所美欧关系演讲的主旨。


Given the shift in global power and the prospect of US energy self-sufficiency as domestic hydrocarbon output booms, America is trying to adapt its foreign policy to the new multi-polar international order.	全球实力正在发生变迁，美国也因国内碳氢化合物产量增加而走向能源自给，在这样的背景下，美国将调整外交政策，以适应新的多极国际秩序。


And, although Asia is now America’s strategic priority, Europe is still the partner with which Americans have the most in common.	此外，尽管亚洲现在是美国的战略重点，但欧洲仍是和美国最有共同语言的伙伴。


“I want to be clear,” Clinton noted. “Our reorientation toward Asia is not a withdrawal from Europe.”	“我要澄清，”克林顿指出，“我们的亚洲导向并不意味着从欧洲撤出。


The US, according to Clinton, hopes that Europe will follow suit, so that Asia is seen not only as a market, but also as a focus of common strategic action.	按克林顿的说法，美国希望欧洲可以紧随其后，这样一来亚洲将不再仅仅是一个市场，而同时也是共同战略行动的焦点。


But, beyond that, as the US and Europe seek to ensure their global roles, cooperation between them is more important than ever.	但是，除此之外，在美国和欧洲都在寻求确保全球地位时，它们之间的合作前所未有地重要。


So now is the time for a bold initiative: the launch of a US-European Union free-trade agreement.	因此，现在正是果断行动的良机：推出美欧联盟（US-European Union）自由贸易协定。


Clinton has already hinted at America’s readiness for this, mentioning the possibility of negotiating a complete agreement that would increase trade and stimulate growth on both sides of the Atlantic.	克林顿暗示美国已为此做好准备，提及了进行能够增进大西洋两岸贸易、刺激大西洋两岸经济的完整协定谈判。


The journalist David Ignatius even dared to give it a name in a recent article in The Washington Post: TAFTA (Transatlantic Free-Trade Agreement).	记者伊格内修斯（David Ignatius）甚至在《华盛顿邮报》的最新文章中给它起了个名字：TAFTA（跨大西洋自由贸易协定）。


Edward Luce, writing in the Financial Times, preferred “Transatlantic Partnership.”	《金融时报》的卢斯（Edward Luce）则更喜欢“跨大西洋伙伴关系”这个名字。


The US and the EU (taken as a whole) are not only the world’s two largest economies and typically the largest commercial partners for other major economies; they also maintain the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship.	美国和欧盟（作为一个整体）不但是世界第一和第二大经济体、其他主要经济体通常的最大商业伙伴； 它们还是世界规模最大的双边贸易的双方。


American investment in Europe is three times higher than it is in Asia.	美国在欧洲的投资比在亚洲高三倍。


European investment in the US is eight times larger than its investments in China and India combined.	欧洲在美国的投资比在中国和印度的总和还高八倍。


So transatlantic trade is crucial for both economies, particularly for job creation.	因此跨大西洋贸易对双方都很关键，特别是在就业创造方面。


Indeed, it is estimated that one-third of all bilateral US-EU trade consists of internal transfers by companies that operate in both markets.	事实上，据估计，美国-欧盟双边贸易总额的三分之一是在双方都有经营活动的公司的内部转移。


Although US and EU tariffs on each other’s marketed manufactured goods are already low (below 3%, on average), a free-trade agreement would be enormously beneficial in promoting further investment, thereby boosting economic growth and creating more jobs.	尽管美国和欧盟对彼此的制造品关税已经很低（平均不到3%），但自由贸易协定仍能大大有利于后续投资，从而提振经济增长、创造就业。


Such an agreement could include trade in goods, services, financial instruments, and agriculture, and would necessitate greater compatibility of European and American regulations and legal norms, implying substantial savings.	这样一个协定可以包括商品、服务、金融工具和农业方面的贸易，也将成为增加欧洲和美国监管和法律规范兼容性的必要条件，这意味着省下大笔资金。


Moreover, the effects of such an agreement would be felt far beyond the US and Europe.	此外，这样一个协定的影响范围将远超美国和欧洲。


For example, both have already signed free-trade treaties with various Latin American countries, implying the creation of a geographically enormous free-trade area, which should boost economic resilience in the face of global crisis.	比如，美国和欧洲均已和许多拉丁美洲国家签订了自由贸易条约，这意味着可以建立一个地理范围极广的自由贸易区，从而增强抵御全球危机的韧性。


Indeed, regional free-trade agreements are gaining momentum worldwide.	事实上，地区自由贸易协定正在全世界高歌猛进。


The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade agreement spearheaded by the US, is set to be a game-changer in the Asia-Pacific region, with decisive advances this year putting it on course to be concluded in 2015.	美国牵头的自由贸易协定跨太平洋合作伙伴关系改变亚太地区的格局，该协定在今年取得了决定性进步，计划将于2015年完成。


Potential signatories include the US, Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Brunei, Canada, Mexico, and perhaps Japan and South Korea.	潜在签署方包括美国、澳大���亚、马来西亚、越南、新加坡、新西兰、智利、秘鲁、文莱、加拿大、墨西哥，可能还有日本和韩国。


The result will be trade liberalization in an area that produces 40% of global GDP.	其结果将是一个站全球GDP份额40%的自由贸易区。


Isn’t it time to consider something similar for Europe and the US?	现在难道不是考虑在欧洲和美国之间实行类似安排的良机吗？


The EU, now confronting a wave of populism and Euro-skepticism, could revive its sense of purpose by committing itself to closer transatlantic cooperation and coordination on trade, to be carried out by the European Commission.	眼下，欧盟正面对着欧元怀疑派的民粹主义风潮，它可以通过更深地投入跨大西洋贸易合作和协作（将由欧盟委员会负责实施）重新燃起使命感。


Such a project has worked before in bringing Europe together; it can do so again.	类似的工程曾经在团结欧洲方面祈祷过重要作用；


The most precious asset today is confidence, and the mere fact of launching negotiations would generate it in abundance.	现在可以依样画葫芦。 眼下，信心比黄金更重要，而进行谈判这一事实变已足够产生足够的信心。


Protectionism is no solution to the crisis, whereas a transatlantic free-trade agreement would favor multilateralism and openness.	保护主义绝不是危机的解决方案，而跨大西洋自由贸易协定有利于多边主义和开放。


In this sense, it is important to stress the work of the World Trade Organization, the best multilateral forum that the world has for resolving trade disputes.	从这个角度看，促进世贸组织的工作十分重要，因为这是世界所拥有的解决贸易纠纷的最好论坛。


Signing a transatlantic trade treaty would be irrefutable proof that the political case for open trade can be made – and won.	毫无疑问，签署跨大西洋贸易条约能够证明，开放贸易的政治条件可以创造并成功。


The only way to achieve this is through the clear commitment of political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, together with private-sector involvement, which is fundamental to sustaining urgently needed economic growth.	达到这一目标的唯一办法是大西洋两岸政治领袖的明确承诺，并辅之以私人部门参与，后者是维持急需的经济增长的关键。


But let’s not wait: faced with predictions of the West’s relative decline, the US and the EU must commit themselves to more union, more cooperation, and more prosperity.	但所谓时不我待，在西方相对衰落的预言声中，美国和欧盟应该致力于更多的联合，更多的合作和更大的繁荣。


Today, that means a transatlantic free-trade agreement.	如今，这就意味着跨大西洋自由贸易协定。


Financial Reform’s Breakthrough Year	金融改革的突破之年


ZANZIBAR – Here’s an odd prediction for the coming year: 2013 will be a watershed for financial reform.	桑给巴尔—新一年有老预言：2013年将是金融改革的分水岭之年。


True, while the global financial crisis erupted more than four years ago, and the Dodd-Frank financial reforms were adopted in the United States back in 2010, not much has changed about how Wall Street operates – except that the large firms have become bigger and more powerful.	诚然，尽管全球金融危机爆发已逾四年，美国的多德-弗兰克金融改革也在2010年便被通过，但华尔街的运作方式并没有什么变化——除了大公司变得更大、更有权势之外。


Yet there are reasons to expect real progress in the new year.	但仍有不少理由期待新的一年中会有真正的进步。


The US Federal Reserve is finally shifting its thinking.	美联储终于开始转变思维了。


In a series of major speeches this fall, Governor Dan Tarullo made the case that the problem of “too big to fail” financial institutions remains with us.	在今年秋天的一系列重要演讲中，美联储理事塔鲁罗（Dan Tarullo）明确指出，金融机构“太大而不能倒”的问题仍然没有消除。


We need to take additional measures to reduce the level of systemic risk – including limiting the size of our largest banks.	我们需要动用更多的措施降低系统性风险——包括限制最大银行的规模。


News reports indicate that the Fed has already started saying no to some bank mergers.	新报告表明，美联储已经开始对一些银行并购说不。


At the same time, the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has become a bastion of sensible thinking on financial-sector issues.	与此同时，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）已成为理智思考金融部门问题的重要堡垒。


In part, this is because the FDIC is responsible for cleaning up the mess when financial-sector firms fail, so its senior officials have a strong incentive to protect its insurance fund by preventing risks from getting out of control.	这部分是因为FDIC需要在金融部门企业倒闭时收拾残局，因此其高级官员有强烈的激励通过防止风险失控保护保险资金。


The FDIC is showing intellectual leadership as well as organizational capabilities – Vice Chairman Tom Hoenig’s speeches are a must-read.	FDIC不但起到了观念领袖作用，也是组织能力的先锋——其副主席霍尼格（Tom Hoenig）的演讲不容错过。


Wall Street is pushing back, of course.	当然，华尔街在卷土重来。


But the rolling series of scandals surrounding global megabanks makes it difficult for anyone to keep a straight face when executives insist that our largest banks must maintain their current scale and scope.	但全球银行巨头没完没了的丑闻让所有人都不会对银行高管所声称的大银行必须维持现有规模的论调买账。


Do we need HSBC to facilitate global money laundering?	我们需要汇丰帮助在全世界洗钱吗？


Do we need Barclays and UBS to manipulate Libor (a key benchmark for interest rates around the world)?	我们希望巴克莱和瑞银操纵Libor（世界关键性基准利率之一）吗？


Do we need still more losses at poorly run trading operations for JP Morgan Chase?	我们需要JP摩根大通的不慎交易给我们带来更大损失吗？


The pro-bank lobby groups are positioning themselves to argue that the new resolution powers under Dodd-Frank have ended the too-big-to-fail problem, and we can expect a public-relations drive in this direction early in the new year.	支持银行的游说集团辩称新多德-弗兰克法案下的解决方案已经终结了太大而不能倒问题，明年年初，我们可以期待公共关系推动这一方向的进步。


But the consensus view at the most recent meeting of the FDIC’s Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee (of which I am a member) was that this claim should not be taken seriously.	但FDIC系统性解决方案咨询委员会（Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee，我也是委员之一）最新的一致意见是对这一论断不能妄加信任。


Under Dodd-Frank, it is arguably easier for the FDIC to handle the failure of a single large financial institution than it was in pre-Dodd-Frank days.	在多德-弗兰克法案下，FDIC处理一家大金融机构的难度确实比多德-弗兰克法案出台前容易了一些。


But what if two or three or seven firms are all in trouble at the same time?	但如果两家、三家甚至所有金融企业同时陷入麻烦呢？


The answer, as former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker implied at the meeting, is that we would be right back where we started – in the panic and frozen credit markets that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.	前美联储主席沃克尔在会议中指出，答案在于我们应该回到起点——2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭所引起的恐慌和信用市场冻结。


Indeed, the idea that substantial shocks could soon hit the US financial system is not far-fetched.	事实上，严重冲击很快会袭向美国金融体系的观点绝非杞人忧天。


The European debt crisis, for example, remains far from being resolved.	比如，欧洲债务危机就远远没有得到解决。


A significant sovereign-debt restructuring there would bring down European banks and potentially damage US banks – as well as financial institutions around the world.	欧洲的大规模主权债务重组将导致欧洲银行的倒闭，并可能危害美国银行以及全世界的金融机构。


Meanwhile, the continuing problems at European banks are a stark reminder that operating highly leveraged, thinly capitalized firms is incredibly risky.	与此同时，欧洲银行问题的持续提醒我们，高杠杆、低资本经营的公司风险极高。


And the regulatory failures in Europe – consider the German Landesbanks, for example – will become only more obvious in the coming months.	而欧洲的监管无能——德国Landesbanks就是明证——在未来几个月中将进一步显现。


Creating a common supervisory authority will mean nothing unless it can clean up the mess created by the existing supervisors.	成立共同监督当局是毫无意义的，除非它能够收拾好现任监督者留下的残局。


And that cleanup will expose more of the rot in banks’ current operations.	而收拾残局将会把更多欧洲银行的经营问题暴露出来。


The need for banks to finance themselves with more equity and relatively less debt will be the focus of one of the main publishing events in economics in 2013.	银行需要更多地依靠股权融资、相对减少债务为自己筹集资金，这将使2013年经济读物的主要关注点之一。


Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig’s The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do About it? will appear officially in March, but advance copies are already being closely read in leading central banks.	阿德马蒂（Anat Admati）和赫尔维格（Martin Hellwig）的《银行家的新衣：银行犯了什么错以及怎样纠正错误？ 》（The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do About it?


Bankers everywhere will rush to read it before their regulators do.	）将在3月正式面世，但抢鲜版已经开始在主要央行中间流传。 各国银行家都会抢在监管者之前阅读这本书。


The road to the ongoing financial and economic crisis was built on a foundation of intellectual capture: not only regulators, but academics, too, became captivated by modern finance and its methods.	迈向持续金融和经济之路建立在思想禁锢的基础上：不仅仅是监管者，学术界也越来越受制于现代金融学及其方法的支配。


Admati and Hellwig are at the vanguard of the counterrevolution, challenging the great myths of banking head-on.	阿德马蒂和赫尔维格是反革命先锋，挑战了“银行向前冲”的大神话。


Do we need financial institutions to be so highly leveraged (that is, carrying so much debt relative to equity)?	我们需要金融机构杠杆如此职高吗（也就是说，相对于股本债务太多）？


No, they argue.	他们的回答是否定的。


If banks of all kinds were financed with more equity, they would have stronger buffers to absorb losses.	如果各种各样的银行都更多地通过股权方式融资，它们将拥有更大的损失吸收缓冲。


Both the equity and the debt issued by well-capitalized banks would be safer – and therefore cheaper.	资本状况较好的银行所发行的股票和债券将更安全——因此成本更低。


Bankers want to be so highly leveraged for a simple reason: implicit government guarantees mean that they get the upside when things go well, while the downside is someone else’s problem.	银行家希望杠杆率如此之高，原因很简单：隐性政府担保意味着他们可以在好光景时获利，而坏光景是其他人的问题。


Contrary to bankers’ claims, this is not a good arrangement for society.	与银行家的言论相反，这绝不是好的社会安排。


Admati and Hellwig are confronting the bankers and their allies in no uncertain terms, grounding their argument in deep financial thinking, yet writing for a broad audience.	阿德马蒂和赫尔维格以斩钉截铁的方式站在了银行界及其盟军的对立面，他们的论点具有深层金融思想根基，尽管他们的书是写给大众看的。


Whatever else happens in 2013, we can be sure that they will not win the Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year award.	不论2013年发生什么事情，我们可以确定的是，这本书得不到高盛年度商业书籍奖。


In Defense of Non-Visionaries	为非空想主义者辩护


OXFORD – Many of the recent tributes for Margaret Thatcher following her death celebrated her as a “transformational” leader who brought about great changes.	牛津—玛格丽特·撒切尔去世后，很多最新纪念文章称赞她是带来伟大变革的“转型”领袖。


There were frequent references to her equally transformational American counterpart, Ronald Reagan.	经常被提到的还有她的美国转型同侪罗纳德·里根。


But a more interesting comparison is with her other presidential contemporary, George H. W. Bush.	但更有趣的比较是把她和另一位美国总统放在一起——老布什。


Though often dismissed as a mere “transactional” manager, Bush had one of the best foreign-policy records of the past half-century.	尽管通常被贬低为“事务性”管理者，老布什却拥有着过去半个世纪的最佳外交政策记录。


His administration managed the end of the Cold War, the dismantlement of the Soviet Union, and the unification of Germany within NATO – all without violence.	他的政府让冷战结束，目睹了苏联的解体，让德国在北约框架内实现了重新统一——所有这些都没有使用暴力。


At the same time, he led a broad United Nations-backed coalition that repelled Saddam Hussein’s aggression against Kuwait.	与此同时，他领导了广泛的由联合国支持的联盟，击退了萨达姆·侯赛因对科威特的入侵。


Had he dropped any of the balls he was juggling, today’s world would be much worse.	他在任何一个方面稍有闪失，当今世界就会糟糕得多。


Although he presided over a major global transformation, Bush, by his own account, did not have transformational objectives.	尽管他主导了重要的全球转型，但就个人而言，老布什并没有转型目标。


On the unification of Germany, he resisted the advice of Thatcher and others, apparently out of a sense of fairness and responsiveness to his friend, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.	在德国重新统一的问题上，它坚持撒切尔和其他人的意见，显然偏向于他的朋友、德国总理科尔而不顾公平。


In October 1989, Bush responded to a call from Kohl by publicly stating that he did not “share the concern that some European countries have about a reunified Germany.”	1989年10月，老布什响应科尔的呼吁，公开声称他不“同意一些欧洲国家对重新统一的德国的担心”。


At the same time, he was careful to let Kohl and others take the lead.	与此同时，他小心翼翼地让科尔和其他人主导形势发展。


When the Berlin Wall was opened a month later, partly owing to an East German mistake, Bush was criticized for his low-key response.	当一个月后柏林墙倒掉时（部分是因为东德的错误），老布什因其反应太过低调而受到批评。


But Bush had made a deliberate choice not to humiliate the Soviets or gloat: “I won’t beat on my chest and dance on the wall,” was his response – a model of emotional intelligence in a leader.	但老布什深思熟虑地选择不去羞辱苏联，也不幸灾乐祸：“我不会在柏林墙上手舞足蹈，”这就是他的反应——堪称领袖心理智慧的样板。


Such self-restraint helped to set the stage for the successful Malta Summit with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev a month later.	如此自我克制帮助他成功地在一个月后于苏联总统戈尔巴乔夫举行了马耳他峰会。


The Cold War ended quietly, and the dismantlement of the Soviet empire followed.	冷战静悄悄地结束了，随之而来的苏联帝国的倒闭。


As Bush and his team responded to forces that were largely outside of his control, he set goals and objectives that balanced opportunities and constraints in a prudent manner.	当老布什及其团队应对他所无法控制的力量时，他审慎地权衡机会和约束，设定目标和目的。


Some critics have faulted him for not supporting the national aspirations of Soviet republics like Ukraine in 1991 (when he delivered his infamous “Chicken Kiev” speech warning against “suicidal nationalism”); for failing to go to Baghdad to unseat Saddam Hussein in the Gulf War; or for sending Brent Scowcroft to Beijing to maintain relations with China after the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989.	一些批评家挑他的刺，认为他不支持苏联加盟��和国的民族意愿（比如1991年的乌克兰，他做了臭名昭著的《基辅鸡》（Chicken Kiev）演讲，警告“自杀式民族主义”）、批评他没能在海湾战争中进军巴格达把萨达姆赶下台、指责他在1989年天安门事件后派布伦特·斯考克罗夫特（Brent Scowcroft）前往北京维持与中国的关系。


But, in each instance, Bush was limiting his short-term gains in order to pursue long-term stability.	但是，在所有这些事件中，老布什都为了长期稳定而牺牲短期利益。


Other critics complained that Bush did not set more transformational objectives regarding Russian democracy, the Middle East, or nuclear non-proliferation at a time when world politics seemed fluid.	也有批评家认为老布什没有在俄罗斯民主、中东和核不扩散问题上追求更有转型意义的目标——当时的世界政坛波诡云谲。


But, again, Bush remained more focused on maintaining global stability than on advancing new visions.	但是，老布什扔更关注维持全球稳定而不是推行新愿景。


Bush was also respectful of institutions and norms at home and abroad, going to the US Congress for authorization of the Gulf War, and to the United Nations for a resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.	老布什还尊重国内外制度和范式，要求美国国会授权参与海湾战争，要求联合国根据联合国宪章第七条给出决议。


Although a realist in his thinking, he could be Wilsonian in his tactics.	尽管他的思维是现实主义的，但在策略上，他是威尔逊主义的。


Bush’s termination of the ground war in Iraq after only four days was motivated in part by humanitarian concerns about the slaughter of Iraqi troops, as well as by an interest in not leaving Iraq so weakened that it could not balance the power of neighboring Iran.	老布什在结束伊拉克地面战争开始仅仅四天后就鸣金，部分原因是出于伊拉克军队遭屠的人道主义考虑，也有部分是出于不能让伊拉克过于孱弱以至于无法制衡相邻的伊朗的利益计算。


While Bush’s invasion of Panama to capture (and later put on trial) Manuel Noriega may have violated Panamanian sovereignty, it had a degree of de facto legitimacy, given Noriega’s notorious behavior.	老布什的入侵巴拿马并俘获（随后审判）曼努尔·诺列加（Manuel Noriega）也许破坏了巴拿马的主权，但这具有一定程度的实际合法性，因为诺列加是臭名昭著的暴君。


And, when Bush organized his international coalition to prosecute the Gulf War, he included several Arab countries – not to ensure military success, but to boost the mission’s legitimacy.	而当老布什组织多国联合控诉海湾战争时，他把一些阿拉伯国家也包括了进来——这不是为了确保军事胜利，而是为了增加行动的合法性。


When Bush and Thatcher met in Aspen, Colorado, in the summer of 1990, Thatcher allegedly warned him “not to go wobbly.”	1990年夏，老布什和撒切尔在科罗拉多州阿斯彭（Aspen）举行会晤，据说撒切尔警告他“不要摇摆不定”。


But most historians agree there was no such danger.	但大部分历史学家同意根本不存在这样的危险。


With his careful combination of hard and soft power, Bush created a successful strategy – one that accomplished American goals in a manner that was not unduly insular and with minimal damage to the interests of foreigners.	老布什小心翼翼地结合了硬实力和软实力，创造了成功的战略，以既不过于狭隘、又能将他国利益损害最小化的方式实现美国的目标。


He was careful not to humiliate Gorbachev, and to manage the transition to Boris Yeltsin’s presidency in a newly independent Russia.	他小心地不去羞辱戈尔巴乔夫，并完成了新成立的独立的俄罗斯向叶利钦做总统的过渡。


Of course, not all foreigners were adequately protected.	当然，并非所有外国人都得到了充分保护。


For example, Bush assigned a low priority to Kurds and Shia in Iraq, to dissidents in China, and to Bosnians in the former Yugoslavia.	比如，老布什对伊拉克库尔德人和什叶派、中国持异见者和前南斯拉夫的波斯尼亚人就不那么上心。


In that sense, Bush’s realism set limits to his cosmopolitanism.	从这个角度来说，老布什的现实主义限制了他的世界大同观。


Could Bush have done more had he been a transformational leader like Thatcher or Reagan?	如果老布什是像撒切尔和里根那样的转型领袖，他能做得更多吗？


Perhaps he might have done more in a second term.	也许他可以在第二个任期做得更多。


And, with better communication skills, he might have been able to do more to educate the American public about the changing nature of the post-Cold War world.	而如果沟通技巧更好，他或许能更好地教育美国公众明白后冷战世界的变化本质。


But, given the profound uncertainty of a world in flux, as well as the dangers of miscalculation as the Soviet empire collapsed, prudent management trumped grand visions.	但是，在流动世界的高度不确定性中，在错误估计苏联帝国解体的风险阴影笼罩下，审慎管理要胜于宏伟空想。


Bush famously said that he did not do “the vision thing.”	老布什有句名言，他不“做空想的事”。


Nonetheless, few people at the end of 1989 believed that Germany could be reunited peacefully within the Western alliance.	尽管如此，在1989年底，很少有人相信德国灰和平地重新统一并留在西方同盟中。


Thatcher certainly did not.	撒切尔显然不相信。


The lesson is that in some circumstances, we should prefer leadership by good transactional managers like George H. W. Bush (or Dwight Eisenhower before him), rather than by more flashy and inspirational transformers.	这表明，在某些环境中，我们应该看好作为优秀事务性管理者的领导人，比如老布什（以及他之前的艾森豪威尔），而不是更犀利、更能激发人心的转型领导人。


Should Business Travel Be Obsolete?	商务旅行应该淘汰吗？


COLOMBO – Think about it: You can call, email, and even watch your counterparty on FaceTime, Skype, or GoToMeeting.	科伦坡—想一想：你可以在FaceTime、Skype或GoToMeeting上呼叫你的对手方、给他们发电邮，甚至与与他们面对面。 既然如此，为何公司每年还要花1.


So why do companies fork out more than $1.2 trillion a year – a full 1.5% of the world’s GDP – for international business travel?	2万亿美元以上的钱——足足相当于世界GDP的1. 5%——用于国际商务旅行？


The expense is not only huge; it is also growing – at 6.5% per year, almost twice the rate of global economic growth and almost as fast as information and telecommunication services.	开支不但巨大，而且还在增长——每年6. 5%，几乎是全球经济增长的两倍，或者与信息和通讯服务业增长相当。


Computing power has moved from our laptops and cellphones to the cloud, and we are all better off for it.	计算能力已经从笔记本和手机移动到云端，这让我们所有人都从中获益。


So why do we need to move brains instead of letting those brains stay put and just sending them bytes?	那么，为何我们还需要移动大脑，而不是让这些大脑留在原地，而只是传输大脑中的数据？


Why waste precious work time in the air, at security checks, and waiting for our luggage?	为何要把宝贵的工作时间浪费在空中、安检门和等待行李上？


Before anyone starts slashing travel budgets, let’s try to understand why we need to move people rather than information.	在开始削减差旅预算前，让我们试着理解一下为何我们需要让人移动，而不是信息。


Thanks to a research collaboration on inclusive growth with MasterCard and an anonymized donation of data to the Center for International Development at Harvard University, we are starting to shed some light on this mystery.	通过与万事达卡的联合包容增长研究，以及向哈佛大学国际发展中心的匿名数据捐赠，我们开始探索这一谜题并取得了一些洞见。


In ongoing work with Dany Bahar, Michele Coscia, and Frank Neffke, we have been able to establish some interesting stylized facts.	在与丹尼·巴哈尔（Dany Bahar）、米歇尔·柯西亚（Michele Coscia）和弗兰克·尼福柯（Franke Neffke）的研究中，我们已经能够识别出一些有趣的典型事实。


More populous countries have more business travel in both directions, but the volume is less than proportional to their population: a country with 100% more population than another has only about 70% more business travel.	人口较多的国家双向商务旅行也更多，但旅行量的增量不及人口比例：如果一个国家人口比另一个国家多100%，其商务旅行量将只多出70%左右。


This suggests that there are economies of scale in running businesses that favor large countries.	这表明营商存在有利于大国的规模经济。


By contrast, a country with a per capita income that is 100% higher than another receives 130% more business travelers and sends 170% more people abroad.	相反，如果一国人均收入比另一国高100%，那么它所接收的商务旅行者将多出130%，它发出的商务旅行者将多出170%。


This means that business travel tends to grow more than proportionally with the level of development.	这意味着商务旅行增长比例要高于发展水平。


While businesspeople travel in order to trade or invest, more than half of international business travel seems to be related to the management of foreign subsidiaries.	商务人士旅行的目的是做交易或投资，但超过一半的国际商务旅行与外国分支管理层有关。


The global economy is increasingly characterized by global firms, which need to deploy their know-how to their different locations around the world.	全球经济中的全球企业越来越多，它们需要在全世界各地部署专业知识。


The data show that there is almost twice the amount of travel from headquarters to subsidiaries as there is in the opposite direction.	数据表明，从总部到分支的旅行量是相反方向的近两倍。


Exporters also travel twice as much as importers.	出口国旅行量是进口国的两倍。


But why do we need to move the brain, not just the bytes?	但为什么我们需要移动大脑，而不仅仅是数据？


I can think of at least two reasons.	我可以想到至少两个原因。


First, the brain has a capacity to absorb information, identify patterns, and solve problems without us being aware of how it does it.	首先，大脑具有吸收信息、识别模式和解决问题的模式，我们根本不需要知道大脑如何做到这一点。


That is why we can, for example, infer other people’s goals and intentions from facial expressions, body language, intonation, and other subtle indicators that we gather unconsciously.	因此，我们能够（比如）在面部表情、肢体语言、语调和其他我们下意识收集到的微妙信号中推断他人的目标和意图。


When we attend a meeting in person, we can listen to the body language, not just the spoken word, and we can choose where to look, not just the particular angle that the video screen shows.	当我们召开现场会议时，我们可以倾听肢体语言，而不仅仅是说出来的话，我们可以选择看哪里，而不仅仅是通过视频中的特殊角度。


As a consequence, we are better able to evaluate, empathize, and bond in person than we can with today’s telecom technologies.	因此，我们能够比通过当今通讯技术更好地评估他人、产生共鸣、建立纽带。


Second, the brain is designed to work in parallel with other brains.	其次，大脑天生具有与其他大脑并行工作的能力。


Many problem-solving tasks require parallel computing with brains that possess different software and information but that can coordinate their thoughts.	许多解决问题的任务需要与拥有不同软件和信息，但能够协调思想的其他大脑进行并行计算。


That is why we have design teams, advisory boards, inter-agency taskforces, and other forms of group interaction.	因此我们有了设计团队、顾问委员会、跨部门任务小组和其他形式的集体互动。


Conference calls try to match this interaction, but it is hard to speak in turn or to see one another’s expressions when someone is talking.	电话会议试图取代这一互动，但在电话会议中很难依次发言或在某人正在发言时 观察彼此的表情。


Conference calls have trouble replicating the intricacy of human conscious and unconscious group interactions that are critical to solve problems and accomplish tasks.	电话会议无法复制人的意识和无意识集体互动的复杂性，而这种复杂性是解决问题、完成任务的关键。


The amount of travel should then be related to the amount of know-how that needs to be moved around.	因此，旅行量应该与有多少知识需要移动有关。


Countries differ in the amount of know-how they possess, and industries differ in the amount of know-how they require.	各国拥有的知识量不同，各行业所需要的知识量也不同。


Controlling for population and per capita income, travel is significantly more intense to and from countries and industries that possess or use more know-how.	控制人口和人均收入变量，拥有或使用更多知识的国家和行业，商务旅行的密集程度显著更高。


The countries that account for the most travel abroad, controlling for population, are all in Western Europe: Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Norway, and the Netherlands.	出国旅行量最大的国家（控制人口因素后）都在西欧：德国、丹麦、比利时、挪威和荷兰。


Outside of Europe, the most travel-intensive countries are Canada, Israel, Singapore, and the United States, a reflection of the fact that they need to deploy many brains to make use of their diverse know-how.	在欧洲之外，旅行最密集的国家为加拿大、以色列、新加坡和美国，这反映了一个事实：它们需要部署许多大脑来让它们多样化的知识派上用场。


Interestingly, countries in the developing world differ substantially in the amount of know-how they receive through business travel.	有趣的是，发展中国家通过商务旅行所获得的知识量大相径庭。


For example, countries such as South Africa, Bulgaria, Morocco, and Mauritius receive much more know-how than countries at similar levels of development such as Peru, Colombia, Chile, Indonesia, or Sri Lanka.	比如，南非、保加利亚、摩洛哥和毛里求斯等国家所获得知识量远远多于发展水平相当的秘鲁、哥伦比亚、智利、印度尼西亚或斯里兰卡。


The fact that firms incur the cost of business travel suggests that, for some key tasks, it is easier to move brains than it is to move the relevant information to the brains.	企业愿意承担商务旅行的成本，这一事实表明，对于一些关键性任务，移动大脑要比将相关信息传递给大脑更加容易。


Moreover, the fact that business travel is growing faster than the global economy suggests that output is becoming more intensive in know-how and that know-how is diffusing through brain mobility.	此外，商务旅行比全球经济增长更快这一事实表明，产出的知识密集程度日益增加，而知识通过大脑的移动扩散。


And, finally, the huge diversity of business travel intensity suggests that some countries are deploying or demanding much more know-how than others.	最后，商务旅行密集程度的巨大差异表明一些国家比其他国家部署或需求更多的知识。


Rather than celebrate their thrift, countries that are out of the business travel loop should be worried.	位于商务旅行环路之外的国家不应该因为节俭而自豪，而应该感到担忧。


They may be missing out on more than frequent flyer miles.	它们也许已经被更加频繁地飞来飞去的国家远远甩在了身后。


Why Turkey\u0027s Army Will Stay Home	为什么土耳其的军队会呆在国内


Just when the smoke from Turkey’s domestic political conflicts of the past year had begun to clear, another deadly attack by Kurdish separatists on Turkish soldiers has the government threatening military attacks inside northern Iraq.	正当过去一年土耳其国内政治斗争的硝烟刚刚开始散去时，库尔德分离主义者攻击土耳其军队导致多名军人死亡的事件使政府威胁要在伊拉克北部实施军队打击。


That prospect raises risks for Turkey, Iraq, and the United States.	这种前景给土耳其、伊拉克和美国都带来了巨大的风险。


But there are reasons to doubt that the situation is as dangerous as recent headlines suggest.	但是有理由怀疑形势是否真的像最近报纸大字标题上所写的那样危险。


Turkey accuses Iraqi Kurds of harboring between 3,000 and 3,500 of Turkey’s most active Kurdish militants – the PKK separatist guerillas who are blamed for the deaths of 80 Turkish soldiers so far this year.	土耳其谴责伊拉克库尔德地区藏匿了3000到3500名土耳其最最活跃的库尔德武装分子库尔德工人党分离主义者的游击队员，他们被指责在今年已经造成了80名土耳其军人死亡。


The trouble reached the boiling point on October 7, when Kurdish fighters killed 13 Turkish soldiers near Turkey’s border with Iraq.	这个问题在10月7日达到了沸点，当天库尔德武装分子在土耳其与伊拉克交界附近打死了13名土耳其军人。


The Turkish public has demanded action, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has responded.	土耳其公众要求采取行动，并且埃尔多安总理领导的政府也作出了反应。


On October 17, despite pleas for patience and restraint from Iraq and the US, Turkish lawmakers voted 507-19 to authorize Erdogan to order cross-border military strikes into Iraq at any time over the next year.	10月17日，尽管伊拉克和美国都呼吁保持耐心和克制，但是土耳其的立法者还是以507票赞成对19票反对授权埃尔多安在明年的任何时间下令越境进入伊拉克实施军事打击。


Erdogan has sent Iraqi Kurds a forceful message.	埃尔多安向伊拉克库尔德人发出了一个有力的信息。


But, for several reasons, the Turkish military is likely to limit its operations to small-scale incursions and air strikes on specific targets rather than launch an all-out war.	但是，有好几个原因会使土耳其军队很可能把它的军事行动限制在小规模的入侵和对特定目标实施空中打击上，而不会爆发一场全面战争。


First, the Turkish military has no interest in embracing the risks that come with involvement in Iraq’s sectarian strife.	首先，土耳其军队并不想面对介入伊拉克的宗派斗争所带来的风险。


A full-scale invasion might well provoke Iraq’s own Kurdish guerrillas into a prolonged and bloody battle with Turkish forces that can only undermine support for Erdogan’s government at home and abroad.	全面入侵很可能会激起伊拉克国内的库尔德游击队员与土耳其军队进行一场漫长而又血腥的斗争，这只会削弱埃尔多安政府在国内和国际所受到的支持。


Second, Turkey’s government hopes to keep the country’s bid to join the European Union moving forward.	第二，土耳其政府希望继续这个国家加入欧盟的进程。


An invasion of Iraq would bring that process to a grinding halt.	而入侵伊拉克会使这一进程嘎然而止。


EU Foreign Policy chief Javier Solana has made plain that Europe strongly opposes any large-scale Turkish military operation in Iraq.	欧盟负责外交事务的高级代表索拉纳已经明确表示欧洲强烈反对土耳其军队在伊拉克境内实施任何大规模的军事行动。


Third, Turkey is well aware that an all-out attack inside Iraq is exactly what Turkey’s Kurdish separatists want.	第三，土耳其很清楚在伊拉克境内实施全面军事打击正是土耳其的库尔德分离主义者所梦寐以求的。


What better way to damage Turkey than to pull its military into conflict with Iraq, the US, and the EU?	还有什么比把土耳其的军队拉上与伊拉克、美国还有欧盟对抗之路更能损害它的利益的呢？


Erdogan has no intention of being drawn into that trap.	埃尔多安是不愿意掉进这个陷阱的。


With all that in mind, this latest move by Turkey’s parliament should be seen more as an ultimatum to Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government to expel the Turkish Kurds and an attempt to persuade the US to use its considerable influence there.	正因为考虑到这些原因，土耳其议会最近的举动应该更多地被看作是要求伊拉克库尔德地区政府驱逐土耳其库尔德人的最后通牒以及试图劝说美国发挥其在当地相当的影响力。


That’s hardball politics, not a declaration of war.	这是强硬方式的政治，而不是宣战。


The parliamentary authorization itself is carefully worded to underline Turkey’s limited aims.	议会的授权本身用词也很谨慎，强调土耳其的有限目标。


It stresses that Turkey’s military has no intention of occupying Iraqi territory or threatening Iraqi Kurds or their oil infrastructure.	它强调说土耳其的军队并不想占领伊拉克的领土或者威胁伊拉克库尔德人抑或他们的石油基础设施。


An attack would certainly make Iraq’s Kurdish provinces less appealing for foreign investors.	一次打击很可能会使伊拉克的库尔德省份对外国投资者不再那么有吸引力。


But Turkey has no reason to attack the assets of foreign oil companies.	但是土耳其没有理由攻击外国的石油公司。


Iraq’s central government is aware of the risks, as well, and is likely to exercise maximum restraint.	伊拉克中央政府很清楚风险所在，并且很可能会保持最大限度的克制。


A limited Turkish strike into northern Iraq would probably elicit little reaction beyond public condemnation and rhetorical assertions of Iraqi sovereignty.	土耳其对伊拉克北部地区实施的有限的军事打击除开会使伊拉克当局作出公开谴责和口头宣称伊拉克的主权外，不会再引起其他反应。


Threats to Iraq’s oil infrastructure around the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk and other territory under the Kurdish Regional Government’s control are minimal.	对伊拉克北部城市基尔库克周围的石油基础设施和库尔德地区政府控制下的领土的威胁是非常小的。


Turkey’s government knows that any move to shut down the 600-mile pipeline from Kirkuk to Turkey’s Mediterranean port at Ceyhan would have little near-term impact, since most of Iraq’s oil exports flow from the south, hundreds of miles from the country’s border with Turkey.	土耳其政府知道任何关闭由基尔库克通向土耳其位于地中海的查伊汉港600英里长的石油管道的行动近期不太可能产生多少影响，因为伊拉克石油出口的大部分是从南部出去的，与该国跟土耳其的交界处相隔了数百英里。


Furthermore, the Turkish military can increase the pressure on Iraqi Kurds with far less drastic measures.	此外，土耳其军队运用远没有那么猛烈的措施就能给伊拉克库尔德人增加压力。


It can close the two countries’ principal border crossing, an important route for food, fuel, and other goods headed for Iraqi Kurds.	它还可以关闭两国主要的过境通道，这是运往伊拉克库尔德地区的食品、燃料和其他物资的重要路线。


It could also cut exports of electricity to northern Iraq.	它还可以减少输往伊拉克北部地区的电力。


Still, even small-scale military operations would generate risk.	然而，即便是小��模的军事行动也会带来风险。


If the PKK is able to launch a major attack on troops or civilians inside Turkey, the public outcry might leave Erdogan with little choice but to up the ante.	如果库尔德工人党能够对土耳其境内的军队或平民发动一次重大打击，公众的强烈抗议会使埃尔多安除了增加赌注外别无选择。


The issue is complicated further by Turkey’s refusal to negotiate directly with the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq.	这个问题因为土耳其拒绝与伊拉克北部的库尔德地区政府进行直接谈判而变得更加复杂了。


Such talks, Turkey fears, would offer tacit acknowledgement that Iraqi Kurds have won a degree of autonomy from Baghdad.	土耳其方面担心这种谈判会等同于默认伊拉克库尔德人已经从巴格达获得了一定程度的自治权。


That’s a bridge too far for Turkey’s nationalists and its military.	那对于土耳其的民族主义者和它的军队来说是不太可能做的。


There are risks for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki as well, because Turkish military strikes on Iraq’s northern provinces could undermine the Kurdish support on which his government increasingly depends.	伊拉克总理马利基也承受着一定的风险，因为土耳其军队在伊拉克北部省份实施的军事打击会严重削弱他的政府越来越依赖的库尔德人的支持。


Both Sunni Arabs and Kurds already resent al Maliki’s mild reaction to Iran’s recent shelling of Iraqi territory – an attempt to strike at Iranian Kurdish militants fleeing across its border with Iraq.	逊尼派阿拉伯人和库尔德人都对马利基对于伊朗最近轰炸伊拉克领土的行动——以便打击通过越境逃到伊拉克境内的一支伊朗库尔德人武装力量——所作出的温和反应深表不满。


There are also risks for the US.	美国同样也承受着风险。


Most supplies headed for US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan move through the Incirlik airbase in Turkey.	大部分运往驻扎在伊拉克和阿富汗的美国军队的物资都是通过土耳其的因切利克空军机场进行的。


With the threat that the US House of Representatives will approve a resolution that accuses Turks of genocide against ethic Armenians nine decades ago, this is a particularly inopportune moment for the two countries to be at odds over Iraq.	面对美国众议院威胁要通过一项谴责土耳其人在90年前对亚美尼亚族人实施种族灭绝的决议，两国在伊拉克问题上产生分歧真是显得特别不合时宜。


But, worst-case scenarios aside, a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq can only serve the interests of Turkey’s Kurdish separatists.	但是，除这些最糟糕的状况，土耳其对伊拉克北部的入侵只会使土耳其的库尔德分离主义者得益。


That’s why cooler heads are likely to prevail.	正因为如此，头脑清醒的人到最后很可能会占据上风。


Limited cross-border operations are increasingly likely.	有限的越境军事行动的可能性变得越来越大了。


A war between Turkey and Iraqi Kurds is not.	但是土耳其与伊拉克库尔德人爆发战争却并不太可能。


Why Ukraine Deserves a Haircut	为何乌克兰债券需要减值


LONDON – In addition to its many other troubles, Ukraine now finds itself in a showdown with its creditors.	发自伦敦——除了自身众多问题之外，乌克兰如今也到了跟其债权人摊牌的时候。


Investors holding high-yielding bonds – many of them bought at heavy discounts after Russia’s annexation of Crimea last year – are demanding to be paid in full.	那些持有高息债券——其中许多都是在去年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后大幅折价购入——的投资者都在要求连本带息全额支付。


Ukraine’s government, for its part, argues that the country’s financial difficulties – in particular the economic effects of the conflict and the plunge in the value of the hryvnia – have made its debt burden unsustainable.	而乌克兰政府方面则声称本国所面对的经济困难——尤其是军事冲突带来的经济冲击和本国货币格里夫尼亚的大幅贬值——使得自身债务负担无以为继。


The outcome of this standoff could determine Ukraine’s future, as much as the military confrontation with Russia.	这一对峙状况的结果将和与俄罗斯的军事冲突一道觉得这个国家的未来。


Recent developments have put the country on a path that would have been unimaginable until very recently.	最近局势的发展已经将乌克兰推向了一条原本无法想象的道路。


For the first time in Ukraine’s post-Soviet history, it has a government that is willing and able to carry out real reform.	在苏联解体之后，乌克兰首次建立了一个有意愿且有能力推动真正改革的政府。


Ukraine’s progress, however, could not be more fragile.	然而乌克兰的进步之路也极之脆弱。


Without some form of debt relief, it could easily be lost.	如果无法实现某种形式的债务削减的话，就会轻易灰飞烟灭。


A little over a year ago, Ukraine did not have an elected president or a representative and functioning parliament.	就在不到一年之前，乌克兰还缺乏一位民选总统，也没有一个具有代表性和正常运作的议会。


The political landscape was deeply fragmented.	整个政治图景极为碎片化。


Civil society had been energized by the Maidan revolution that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych, but it was in turmoil.	公民社会在推翻了前总统维克多·亚努科维奇（Viktor Yanukovych）的广场革命驱动下建立了起来，但如今却陷入了混乱。


Debate over the association agreement with the European Union, along with the Russian-backed rebellion in the east, had stoked tensions over distinctions that previously played little or no role in people’s lives.	针对欧盟联系国协议的讨论，在加上俄罗斯支持下的东部叛乱，使得人们在生活中原本微不足道的细微区别之上剑拔弩张，紧张不已。


But since parliamentary elections in October, Ukraine has begun to pull itself together.	但自去年10月的议会选举后，乌克兰已经开始振作起来。


Russia’s intervention has to some extent backfired, strengthening support for a European orientation.	俄罗斯的干预在一定程度上适得其反，反而加强了乌克兰对欧洲的向心力。


Eastern Ukraine may have voted differently from the rest of the country, but the overwhelming majority of voters came out in favor of Europe.	虽然乌克兰东部的投票结果可能与该国其余地区不同，但支持偏爱欧洲的选民依然会占绝大多数。


The electorate also said no to the more virulent forms of nationalism, leaving the right-wing extremist parties marginalized.	选民们也拒绝了更致命形式的民族主义，把右翼极端党派晾在了一边。


The result of the elections was the formation of a five-party governing coalition.	选举最终结果是组成了一个五党执政联盟。


Though seemingly fragile, it has held up remarkably well.	虽然看似脆弱，但团结却相当紧密。


Some of its members have displayed worrying populist tendencies, but an analysis of parliamentary voting patterns indicates that so far the coalition has been able to find agreement, even on very difficult issues.	它的一些成员显示出令人担忧的民粹主义倾向，但对议会投票模式的分析表明，到目前为止，即使是在非常棘手的问题上联盟依然能够达成共识。


The government has, among other things, raised gas tariffs by 450% (from absurdly low levels).	除此之外，政府把天然气关税（从原本荒谬的低水平）提高了450%。


Dissension has been relatively moderate.	各派之间斗争也一直相对温和。


As a result, Ukraine’s core institutions are undergoing fundamental change.	在此基础之上，乌克兰的核心体制正在经历根本性的变化。


The central bank – once in the pocket of the country’s oligarchs, supplying inside information on exchange rates and liquidity in exchange for bribes – has been put under the command of a governor committed to reform, surrounded by an increasingly professional team.	中央银行——曾经是国内寡头的囊中物，通过提供汇率和流动性的内部信息以换取贿赂——已经任命了一位致力于改革的行长，招募了一个更为专业的团队。


The energy monopoly Naftogaz, previously a cesspool of illicit transactions, has in a year managed the seemingly impossible: making Ukraine virtually independent from direct gas delivery from Russia for at least a year.	能源寡头乌克兰天然气公司过去一直是充斥非法交易的藏污纳垢之地，却在这一年多以来实现了看似不可能的任务：让乌克兰几乎摆脱了对俄罗斯天然气的依赖。


Perhaps Ukraine’s single most important achievement is the establishment of the National Reform Council.	而或许乌克兰最重要的成就则是建立国家改革委员会。


Originally set up to coordinate reforms across ministries and monitor their implementation, it has come to serve as an important tool to discuss and ensure coherence among the different branches of government.	原本是为了协调跨部门改革并监督其进程，如今委员会已成为讨论和确保政府各部门之间一致性的重要工具。


This latter role is particularly important, given the constitutional ambiguity created by the reversion back to a parliamentary system and the uneasy co-habitation of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in government.	鉴于向议会体系的回归所产生的体制模糊状况，以及总统彼得·波罗申科（Petro Poroshenko）和总理阿尔谢尼·亚采纽克（Arseniy Yatsenyuk）在政府中一山难容二虎的形势，后者的作用尤为重要。


Meetings are held every three weeks and are attended by the president, the prime minister, and his entire cabinet, providing a forum in which tensions can be discussed and eased.	会议每三周举行一次，总统、总理和他的整个内阁都会出席，为大家提供了一个可以讨论和缓解紧张关系的平台。


In between meetings, the council’s special project-management office assists in the preparation and implementation of key reforms by ministries.	在会议期间，委员会的特别项目管理办公室协助各部委策划和实施关键改革。


With support from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the George Soros-funded International Renaissance Foundation, and bilateral assistance from, among others, the Swedish government, the office has been able to hire staff at market rates, raising the quality of the government administration.	在欧洲复兴开发银行，乔治•索罗斯（George Soros）资助国际复兴基金会以及瑞典等多国政府的双边援助下，办公室已经能够以市场认可的工资水平雇佣员工，从而提高政府管理的质量。


Ukraine’s government has also benefited from the expertise of private-sector leaders.	乌克兰政府也受益于私营部门领导人的专业知识。


Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Dmytro Shymkiv, who drove the National Reform Council, was CEO of Microsoft Ukraine.	主管国家改革委员会的总统办公厅副主任迪米特罗·什姆基夫（Dmytro Shymkiv）是原微软乌克兰分公司的首席执行官。


Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko and Economic Development and Trade Minister Aivaras Abromavicius were both investment bankers (neither was a Ukrainian citizen when they joined the government).	财���部长娜塔莉·雅雷斯科（Natalie Jaresko）和经济发展与贸易部长艾瓦拉斯·阿布罗马维丘斯（Aivaras Abromavicius）都曾是投资银行家（两人在加入政府时都不是乌克兰公民）。


Infrastructure Minister Andriy Pivovarsky, also a former investment banker, was most recently CEO of Continium, one of the country’s largest holding companies.	基础设施部长安德烈·皮沃瓦尔斯基（Andriy Pivovarsky）也是前投资银行家，曾任全国最大的控股公司之一Continium集团的CEO。


Each has played a key role in pushing the reform agenda forward, working for salaries that are orders of magnitude smaller than what they earned before.	他们每一位都为推动改革议程向前发展发挥了关键作用，也在为比从前少得多的工资在工作。


Some have even employed staff using their own money.	有些人甚至自己花钱来雇佣员工。


Meanwhile, the ambitious agendas of the government ministers and the presidential administration are closely monitored by an energized civil society.	同时，政府部长和总统办公厅的宏伟议程由一个充满活力的民间社会来密切监察着。


As Soros has noted, Ukraine probably has the most active civil society in Europe.	正如索罗斯指出的那样，乌克兰可能有着全欧最活跃的公民社会。


One of the country’s most interesting new ventures is VoxUkraine, a blogging platform set up by two Ukrainian economics professors based in the United States, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Timofiy Mylovanov.	该国其中一个最有趣的新企业是VoxUkraine，一个由尤里·哥罗尼申科（Yuriy Gorodnichenko）和蒂莫西·米洛万诺夫（Timofiy Mylovanov）两位在美乌克兰经济学教授建立的博客平台。


They have championed modern evidence-based decision-making and constantly come up with new, constructive ways of challenging the government and its assumptions.	他们倡导实施现代循证型决策，不断提出新的、有建设性的方式来挑战政府及其政策设想。


Despite all this progress, however, the odds remain stacked against the country.	尽管取得了这些进步，形势依然对乌克兰不利。


The government is fighting at least two wars simultaneously – taking on a deeply entrenched oligarchy, while trying to fend off its hostile eastern neighbor.	政府同时在参与至少两场战争——在试图抵御敌对东部邻国的同时还要对抗根深蒂固的寡头政治。


Further trouble – in the form a steeply declining economy – is something it cannot afford.	更麻烦的问题——以经济急剧下滑的形式呈现——则是政府无法承受的。


The stakes could not be higher.	但改革的红利也是极大的。


For the first time since the country gained its independence in 1992, Ukraine has a clear sense of direction and a government capable of supporting reform.	自1992年独立以来，乌克兰第一次有了一个明确的方向和一个能够支持改革的政府。


There are signs that the oligarchs’ grip is beginning to loosen, owing partly to internal conflicts among them.	有迹象表明，在某种程度上由于寡头之间的内部冲突，他们对国家的钳制开始有放松迹象。


The EU and the US are working to help resolve its conflict with Russia.	欧盟和美国正努力帮助乌克兰解决与俄罗斯的冲突。


Ukraine’s private creditors must now do their part, recognize the country’s economic and political situation, and accept a haircut on their bonds.	因此乌克兰的私人债权人现在必须认识到国家的经济和政治形势，接受债券减值。


Neither the Ukrainian economy – nor its political system – can afford that they do otherwise.	否则无论是乌克兰经济——还是政治体制——都无法承受其他的方案。


When Inflation Doves Cry	当通胀鸽派得势


PITTSBURGH – The Wall Street Journal recently ran a front-page article reporting that the monetary-policy “doves,” who had forecast low inflation in the United States, have gotten the better of the “hawks,” who argued that the Fed’s monthly purchases of long-term securities, or so-called quantitative easing (QE), would unleash faster price growth.	匹兹堡—《华尔街日报》最近刊登了一篇头版文章报道，说预测美国通胀将保持低位的货币政策“鸽派”已经压倒了认为美联储每月购买长期证券的计划，即所谓的量化宽松（QE）将加速物价上涨的“鹰派”。


The report was correct but misleading, for it failed to mention why there is so little inflation in the US today.	报道说的没错，但有误导之嫌，因为它没有提及为何现今美国通胀如此之低。


Were the doves right, or just lucky?	是鸽派对了，还是仅仅因为幸运？


The US Federal Reserve Board has pumped out trillions of dollars of reserves, but never have so many reserves produced so little monetary growth.	美联储董事会抛出了数万亿美元的准备金，但如此之多的准备金只造成如此至少的货币增长，这是从未有过的事情。


Neither the hawks nor the doves (nor anyone else) expected that.	鹰派和鸽派（和任何其他人）都没有料到会如此。


Monetarists insist that economies experience inflation when money-supply growth persistently exceeds output growth.	货币主义者坚持认为，当货币供给持续高于产出增长时，经济会经历通胀。


That has not happened yet, so inflation has been postponed.	但这并没有发生，因此通胀一直起不来。


Instead of rejecting monetary theory and history, the army of Wall Street soothsayers should look beyond the Fed’s press releases and ask themselves: Does it make sense to throw out centuries of experience?	华尔街预言家不应该拒绝接受货币理论和历史，而应该让目光超越美联储新闻稿，扪心自问：否定几百年的经验有意义吗？


Are we really so confident that the Fed has found a new way?	我们真的这么有信心，认为美联储已经找到了新道路？


The Fed has printed new bank reserves with reckless abandon.	美联储毫无忌惮地大手笔印着新银行准备金。


But almost all of the reserves sit idle on commercial banks’ balance sheets.	但这些准备金几乎全部闲置在商业银行的资产负债表上。


For the 12 months ending in July, the St. Louis Fed reports that bank reserves rose 31%.	在截至7月的12个月中，圣路易斯联邦储备银行报告其银行准备金增加了31%。


During the same period, a commonly used measure of monetary growth, M2, increased by only 6.8%.	同一时期，常用货币增长指标M2只增加了6. 8%。


No sound monetarist thinks those numbers predict current inflation.	没有哪位严谨的货币主义者会认为这些数字意味着当前通胀。


Indeed, almost all the reserves added in the second and third rounds of QE, more than 95%, are sitting in excess reserves, neither lent nor borrowed and never used to increase money in circulation.	事实上，几乎所有在第二轮和第三轮QE期间增加的准备金（超过95%）以超额准备金的形式存在着，既没有借贷，也没有用于增加流通中货币。


The Fed pays the banks 0.25% to keep them idle.	美联储为了这些闲置资金向银行支付0. 25%的利息。


With $2 trillion in excess reserves, and the prospect of as much as $85 billion added each month, banks receive $5 billion a year, and rising, without taking any risk.	超额准备金高达2万亿美元，而且预计将以每个月850亿美元的速度增加，银行将因此每年获得50亿美元（而且会越来越多），还不用承担任何风险。


For the bankers, that’s a bonanza, paid from monies that the Fed would normally pay to the US Treasury.	对银行家来说，这简直是天降馅饼，这笔钱通常是美联储付给美国财政部的。


And, adding insult to injury, about half the payment goes to branches of foreign banks.	此外，雪上加霜的是，一半的支付额流入了外国银行的分支机构。


In normal times, there are valid reasons for paying interest on excess reserves.	在正常时期，可以找到充分的理由论证应该向超额准备金支付利息。


Currently, however, it is downright counter-productive.	但是，目前这么做不利于生产。


Bank loans have started to increase, but small borrowers, new borrowers, and start-up companies are regularly refused.	银行贷款已开始增加，但小型借款人、新借款人和创业公司总是吃闭门羹。


Current low interest rates do not cover the risk that banks would take.	当前的低利率不能覆盖银行所冒的风险。


To be sure, they could raise the rate for new and small borrowers; but, in the current political climate, they would stand accused of stifling economic recovery if they did.	诚然，它们可以针对新借款人和小借款人提高利息； 但是，在当前的政治气候下，这么做会让它们受到千夫所指，认为它们妨碍复苏。


The new Consumer Financial Protection Board is also a deterrent, as banks consider it safer to lend to the government, large corporations, and giant real-estate speculators.	新的消费者金融保护委员会也成了妨碍因素，因为银行认为借钱给政府、大公司和大型房地产投机商更加安全。


The banks can report record profits without much risk, rebuild capital, and pay dividends and bonuses.	银行可以报告利润，有不同承担高风险； 可以冲减资本；


And the Fed can congratulate itself on the mostly unobserved way that the large banks have used taxpayers’ money.	可以支付股票红利和奖金。 而美联储也可以暗自庆幸，大银行用难以看到的方式用了纳税人的钱。


Instead of continuing along this futile path, the Fed should end its open-ended QE3 now.	美联储不应该继续坚持这一徒劳无益的政策，而应该马上结束无限制QE3。


It should stop paying interest on excess reserves until the US economy returns to a more normal footing.	美联储应该停止向超额准备金支付利息，直到美国经济站稳脚跟。


Most important, it should announce a strategy for eliminating the massive volume of such reserves.	最重要的是，美联储应该宣布消灭如此巨量准备金的战略。


I am puzzled, and frankly appalled, by the Fed’s failure to explain how it will restore its balance sheet to a non-inflationary level.	我很困惑，坦白说是惊骇，美联储一直没有解释它将如何让其资产负债表恢复到无通胀水平。


The announcements to date simply increase uncertainty without telling the public anything useful.	目前所宣布的政策只能增加不确定性，而没有告诉公众任何有用的信息。


Selling $2 trillion of reserves will take years.	拍卖2万亿准备金要花上多年时间。


It must do more than repeat that the Fed can raise interest rates paid on reserves to encourage banks to hold them.	除了重申美联储可能增加准备金利率以鼓励银行持有它们之外，美联储还需要做些另外的事。


It will take a clearly stated, widely understood strategy – the kind that Paul Volcker introduced in 1979-1982 – to complete the job.	为此，美联储必须给出明确的、被广泛理解的战略，就像1979—1982年保罗·沃克尔（Paul Volcker）做的那样。


Should the end of QE come in September, December, or later?	QE的结束会在9月、12月还是更晚发生？


Does it matter?	这重要吗？


Historically, the Fed has typically been slow to respond to inflation.	从历史上看，美联储对通胀的反应总是慢半拍。


Waiting until inflation is here, as some propose, is the usual way.	正如一些人所指出的，坐等通胀出现是美联储的惯常做法。


But that merely fuels inflation expectations and makes the task more painful.	但这只能助长通胀预期，让任务更加艰巨。


And how high will the Fed push up interest rates?	美联储会把利率提高到何种高度？


Once rates get to 5% or 6%, assuming inflation remains dormant, the Fed can expect a backlash from Congress, the administration, unions, homebuilders, and others.	如果���率达到5%或6%，假设通胀仍然低迷，那么美联储将受到国会、政府、工会、业主和其他人的口诛笔伐。


When contemplating the consequences of this, remember that 40% of US government debt comes due within two years.	在思考这些后果时，必须牢记40%的美国政府债务将于两年内到期。


Rolling it over at higher rates of 4% or 5% would add more than $100 billion to the budget deficit.	以更高的利率——4%或5%——展期将导致预算赤字增加1000多亿美元。


And that is just the first two years.	而这仅仅是最初两年。


The budget cost increases every year, as more of the debt rolls over – and that does not include agency debt and the large increase in the current-account deficit to pay China, Japan, and other foreign holders of US debt.	随着更多的债务展期，预算成本将逐年太高——这还不算政府机构债务和经常项目赤字的增加以支付中国、日本和其他美国债务外国债权人。


Those who believe that inflation will remain low should look more thoroughly and think more clearly.	认为通胀将保持低迷者应该看得更通透一些，想得更明了一些。


There are plenty of good textbooks that explain what too many policymakers and financial-market participants would rather forget.	有很多决策者和金融市场参与者忘记的东西原原本本地躺在出色的教科书中。


Send in the Clowns	小丑上台


NEW YORK – When too many Italians voted late last month for either a louche and discredited business tycoon or a comedian, European stock markets plummeted.	纽约——上月底，太多意大利人投票选举一位声名狼藉的商业大亨和一名喜剧演员导致欧洲股市出现暴跌。


With no public trust in the political class, Italy might become ungovernable.	公众对政治阶层失去信任可能导致意大利局势失控。


But Italians are not alone.	但意大利人绝非个别现象。


Rage against the political establishment has become a global phenomenon.	对政治体制的怒火在世界各地随处可见。


Chinese bloggers, American Tea Party activists, British Europhobes, Egyptian Islamists, Dutch populists, Greek ultra-rightists, and Thai “red shirts” all have one thing in common: hatred of the status quo and contempt for their countries’ elites.	中国的博客写手、美国的茶党激进分子、英国的恐欧主义者、埃及的伊斯兰教徒、荷兰的民粹主义者、希腊的极右派和泰国的“红衫军”都有一个共同点：仇恨现状及鄙视国内精英阶层。


We are living in an age of populism.	我们生活在民粹主义时代。


The authority of conventional politicians and traditional media is slipping away fast.	传统的政治家和传统媒体正在迅速丧失权威。


Populism can be a necessary corrective when political parties grow sclerotic, mass media become too complacent (or too close to power), and bureaucracies are unresponsive to popular needs.	民粹主义可以作为对政党僵化、大众媒体自满（或太过亲权）、以及官僚机构对大众需求反应迟钝的一种必要的修复。


In a globalized world managed by bankers and technocrats, many people feel that they have no say in public affairs; they feel abandoned.	很多人在由银行家和技术专家管理的全球化世界中感觉丧失了公共事务发言权，这些人感到被抛弃了。


Our national politicians, increasingly powerless to cope with serious crises, are suspected, often with good reason, of simply looking after their own interests.	国内政治家应对严重危机越来越力不从心，公众往往怀疑他们只想保护自身的利益，而公众的怀疑其实也很有道理。


All we can do is vote the rascals out, sometimes by voting for candidates whom we would not take seriously in more normal times.	我们只想投票将无赖赶下台，有时甚至因此而投给那些在正常情况下不会受到关注的候选人。


Italian elites are not the only ones in need of being shaken up.	需要重新振作的不仅仅是意大利精英。


But the problem with populism is that it is rarely benign. In the 1930’s, it resulted in violent movements led by dangerous men in uniform.	但问题是民粹主义很少有良性结果，比方说在20世纪30年代导致由身着制服的危险份子领导的暴力运动。


Today’s populists are different.	而今天的民粹主义者则有所不同。


They do not, on the whole, advocate violence.	总体而言他们并不赞成暴力运动。


Some preach that Muslims are destroying Western civilization.	有人宣扬穆斯林正在摧毁西方文明。


Others think that President Barack Obama is a kind of communist out to destroy America.	也有人认为奥巴马总统是要毁掉美国的共产主义份子。


Two types of contemporary populist, however, stand out: the ultra-rich business tycoon and the clown.	于是超级商业大亨和小丑这两类当代民粹主义者脱颖而出。


In the Anglo-Saxon media world, Rupert Murdoch, owner of far too many newspapers, TV stations, and movie studios, is a typical populist tycoon.	盎格鲁－撒克逊世界的传媒大亨鲁珀特·默多克拥有数不清的报纸、电视台和电影制片厂，可谓是民粹主义大亨的典型。


But he never aspired to lead a country.	但他从未有志于担任国家领袖。


Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra did – and still do.	意大利前总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼和泰国前总理他信则有志于此——他们现在仍不改初衷。


Neither the clown nor the tycoon is well suited to being a democratic leader.	民主领袖的合适人选既不是小丑也不是大亨。


The question is which is worse.	问题在于哪个更差劲。


Clowns have always played a role in politics.	小丑一直在政治领域发挥重要作用。


Medieval court jesters were often the only ones who could speak truth to despotic kings.	中世纪的宫廷小丑往往是唯一敢对专制君主讲真话的人。


Today, it is often comedians who claim to speak truth to power – and to the public.	今天，声称对当权者和民众直言不讳的往往是喜剧演员。


In America, liberals turn for political commentary to television comedians like Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, who are now more trusted than traditional news broadcasters.	美国人认为乔恩·斯图尔特和斯蒂芬·科尔伯特等电视喜剧演员比新闻主播的传统政治评论更值得信任。


And clownish right-wing radio talk-show hosts now have more influence on many conservative American voters than the sober journalists of the mainstream media do.	幽默滑稽的右翼电台脱口秀主持人比严肃的主流媒体记者更能影响美国的选民。


A few years ago, a clown named Brozo, with a large red nose and a bright green wig, was Mexico’s most popular political commentator on television, actively courted by all candidates running for national office.	几年前，一位大红鼻头、亮绿假发的Brozo小丑曾是墨西哥最受欢迎的电视政治评论员，并得到所有政界候选人的着意拉拢。


In 1980, the French clown Coluche actually dropped out of the presidential race when one newspaper put his popular support at 16%, causing him to fear that he might influence the result too much.	1980年，法国小丑Coluche其实是主动退出总统竞选，原因是一家报纸统计其民意支持率为16%，这让他担心会过于影响选举结果。


The prototype of modern European populism was the flamboyant Dutch political showman Pim Fortuyn, who was assassinated in 2002 by a fanatical vegan.	2002年遭狂热素食主义者暗杀的夸张的荷兰政治表演者皮姆·佛杜恩是现代欧洲民粹主义的原型。


Fortuyn’s outrageousness was deliberately provocative and always entertaining.	佛杜恩肆无忌惮的故意挑衅常令人忍俊不禁。


His rants against the elites were often confused, but he was funny, which made the old elite politicians look like stuffy old bores – which many of them were.	他对精英阶层的斥责往往令人困惑，但他的滑稽可笑让老派精英政治家看去古板而令人生厌——这也确实是很多人的真实写照。


And now Italy has Beppe Grillo, whose success in the country’s recent election makes him the first professional comedian to lead a major political party in Europe.	现在意大利有了毕普·格里罗，格里罗成功赢得刚刚结束的大选使他成为有史以来领导欧洲主要政党的首位专业喜剧演员。


The thing about clowns, though, is that few have any aspirations to rule their countries.	但小丑的问题在于他们鲜有管理国家的愿望。


Before his death, Fortuyn is said to have been terrified of the prospect of becoming Prime Minister.	据说佛杜恩死前想起担任首相就不寒而栗。


And Grillo cannot even aspire to the job in Italy because of his criminal record.	而格里罗甚至因为有过犯罪记录而不允许在意大利任职。


Clowns mostly seek to provoke, and this can be healthy.	小丑一般都乐于挑衅，而这可以成为他们的优势。


They are less likely than members of the professional political class to allow political calculations to influence their views.	与职业政客相比，他们不大可能让政治算计影响自己的意见。


And, sometimes, they actually say things that are uncomfortable but true, and that need to be said.	而且有时的确会说些有益无害的刺耳的真话。


Political business tycoons, on the other hand, have different ambitions.	另一方面，政界的商业巨子往往另有野心。


They attack the old elites not to shake things up, but to take their power.	他们攻击老派精英并非想寻求改革，而是想抢夺政权。


Promising to spread the riches that they have made for themselves, they exploit the fantasies of those of us who have little and want more.	他们许诺要让更多人像他们那样拥有财富，以此来利用两手空空却满怀希望者的幻觉。


Berlusconi understood the dreams of many Italians very well.	贝卢斯科尼深刻理解许多意大利人的梦想。


His extravagance, clownishness, and even his girls were part of his popular appeal.	他的挥霍无度、反覆无常，甚至就连他的桃色新闻都让他更有吸引力。


In Thailand, the self-made ethnic-Chinese media billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra was especially admired by the rural poor.	在泰国，白手起家的华裔传媒富豪他信·西那瓦尤其受到农村贫困人口的推崇。


Like a beneficent king, he would give them money, and promised to challenge the old elites in Bangkok – the bankers, generals, judges, and even the courtiers surrounding the Thai king.	他会像仁慈的国王那样给他们钱，并承诺挑战曼谷的银行家、将军、法官、甚至是泰国国王臣子等老牌精英。


But tycoons are not natural democrats.	但富豪并不等同于民主人士。


Their main interest is in their own business.	自身的商业利益是他们主要的兴趣点。


And they do not hesitate to undermine an independent press or judiciary when their business interests are threatened.	在商业利益受到威胁时他们会毫不犹豫地破坏新闻和司法独立。


Even though his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, is now in power, Thaksin is still trying to evade trial in Thai courts on a wide array of financial charges.	即使当权的英拉·西那瓦是自己的妹妹，他信仍试图逃避泰法院对一系列财务指控的审判。


As it happens, Thaksin was overthrown in 2006 by a military coup that was largely backed by the Bangkok elites.	推翻他信的恰好是2006年一次主要由曼谷精英发起的军事政变。


Berlusconi was replaced by a government run by elite technocrats, whose policies had to be approved by European bankers and European Union bureaucrats.	精英技术专家管理的政府接替了贝卢斯科尼，这些人的政策必须得到欧洲银行家和欧盟官僚的核准。


Neither of these responses to populism is likely to boost democracy.	上面提到的民粹主义反应不太可能推动民主。


On the contrary, they make things worse.	相反，情况可能进一步恶化。


What is needed is mainstream politicians who understand and respond to what is fueling popular rage.	我们需要的是了解民众愤怒根源并愿意采取对策的主流政治家。


Paying attention to some of what the clowns are saying might be a good first step.	倾听小丑的心声也许是不错的开始。


Why Don’t We Trust Our Leaders?	为什么我们不信任我们的领导人？


OXFORD – In developed democracies today, political leadership is increasingly up for grabs.	牛津—在当今发达民主国家，政治领导权日益变得人人可争而得之。


Voters, clearly tired of the status quo, want change at the top, leaving even major parties’ establishments struggling to install leaders of their choosing.	选民显然已经厌倦了现状，想要顶层发生变化，就连主流政党的建制派都难以安插他们选定的领导人。


In the United Kingdom, Labour Party MPs have been stymied in their efforts to unseat Jeremy Corbyn as leader.	在英国，工党议员罢黜党首杰瑞米·科尔宾（Jeremy Corbyn）的努力严重受阻。


In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s preferred candidate for Governor of Tokyo, Hiroya Masuda, lost in a landslide to Yuriko Koike.	在日本，执政党自民党中意的东京都知事增田宽也惨败给了小池百合子。


As for the United States, the Republican Party wanted virtually anybody except Donald Trump to win the nomination for the presidency; yet Trump it is.	至于美国，共和党几乎愿意让任何人赢得总统提名人，只要不是唐纳德·特朗普； 然而偏偏唐纳德·特朗普赢了。


And while the Democratic Party is being represented by the establishment choice, Hillary Clinton, her competitor, Bernie Sanders, put up a much stronger fight than virtually anyone anticipated.	而民主党尽管仍然由建制派的选择希拉里·克林顿代表，其竞争对手伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）斗争之激烈超过了几乎所有人的预料。


The message to the establishment is clear: we don’t trust you anymore.	对建制派来说，信号是明确的：我们再也不信任你们了。


But some of the leaders voters do trust could pose a very real danger – to their supporters, their countries, and the world.	但选民果真信任的一些领导人有可能带来非常切实的危险——对支持者、对国家，也对世界。


Trump – with his admiration of dictators, unabashed racism and sexism, ignorance regarding the issues, and mercurial temperament – stands at the top of this list.	特朗普——及其对独裁者的景仰、毫不遮掩的种族主义和性别歧视、对相关问题的无知以及喜怒无常的习性——首屈一指。


Those who led the British campaign to leave the European Union – such as Conservatives like Boris Johnson (now the country’s foreign secretary) and Nigel Farage, the right-wing populist leader of the UK Independence Party – are similarly disparaged for recklessly jeopardizing the future of the UK and the EU alike.	领导英国脱欧阵营的人——如保守党鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson，现任英国外交大臣）和英国独立党的右翼民粹主义领导人尼格尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）——也因为肆意践踏英国和欧盟的未来而被人唾弃。


If mainstream leaders want to change voters’ minds, they should look carefully at what leadership really means.	如果主流领导人想要改变选民的观点，应该认真想想领导力真正意味着什么。


Here, it is worth recalling the insights of US General George C. Marshall, who contemplated the topic as he worked to rebuild the US military in the 1940s.	在这方面，我们值得回顾美国五星上将乔治·马歇尔的洞见。 他在20世纪40年代重建美军时思考过这个问题。


Marshall argued that leadership is a matter not of rhetoric, but of character.	马歇尔认为，领导力是气质问题，不是修辞问题。


In particular, leaders must display three key qualities to win the trust needed to lead effectively: purpose, impartiality, and competence.	特别是，领导人必须展现三大关键品质才能赢得有效领导所需要的信任：目标（purpose）、公平（impartiality）和胜任力（competence）。


Purpose, in his view, meant putting the greater good ahead of one’s own interests.	在马歇尔看来，目标意味着大大超越一个人的自身利益。


This kind of leadership still exists.	这类领导力仍然存在。


A shining example is Jo Cox, the young British MP who was murdered during the Brexit campaign, whose leadership in advocating for the rights of refugees was recognized across party lines.	一个显著的例子是在英国脱欧运动期间遭到杀害的年轻英国议员乔·考克斯（Jo Cox），他在推进难民权利方面的领导力得到了超越党派界线的承认。


But, in many cases, politics has become a matter of self-promotion – and a race for ratings.	但是，在许多例子中，政治沦为自我推销——以及流品（ratings）的竞赛。


In today’s celebrity culture, politicians must be “personalities.”	在当今名人文化中，政客必须“有个性”。


They campaign like contestants on a reality TV show.	他们的竞选活动好比实时电视秀。


Trump, with his clownish looks and showbiz resume, is probably the ultimate example of this shift.	特朗普形象滑稽，深谙娱乐圈之道，堪称这一转变的终极范例。


(The Huffington Post even decided last summer to publish coverage of Trump’s campaign in its entertainment section.)	（去年夏天，《霍芬顿邮报》甚至决定将特朗普竞选活动的报道放在娱乐版。 ）


The problem is not only that this can lead to the election of utterly unqualified leaders.	问题不仅在于这可能导致选出完全不够格的领导人。


It is also that, once elected, even qualified leaders can struggle to shed the personal elements of their decision-making, and serve the country impartially instead.	问题还在于，一旦当选，甚至合格的领导人也可能忙于在决策中打上个人烙印，无法做到公平地服务于国家。


The slippery slope is exposed in a memo – recently disclosed as part of the UK’s Chilcot Inquiry – written by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to former US President George W. Bush in the run-up to the Iraq war.	这一急转直下可以从一份最近作为英国奇尔科特调查（Chilcot Inquiry）的一部分被披露的备忘录中一窥端倪。 该备忘录由英国前首相布莱尔写给美国前总统小布什，时间在伊拉克战争前夕。


The note begins, “I will be with you, whatever.”	备忘录开头写道，“不管发生���么，我将与你同在。


He was talking about leading his country into war.	”他谈的是领导国家进入战争。


Yet his language suggests that his personal bond with Bush somehow took precedence over his duty as Prime Minister.	但他的语言表明他与小布什的个人关系似乎还在他作为首相的指责之前。


Leading with purpose, rather than personality, is closely related to the impartiality that Marshall thought essential.	以目标而不是个性来领导与马歇尔认为的关键要素——公平密切相关。


Once in office, leaders must act with fairness and candor.	上台后，领导人必须公正坦率地行动。


They must resist the temptation to use official power to benefit themselves, their families, or their cultural identity group, and refuse enticements, however powerful they may be, to offer special access or protection to friends, funders, and lobbyists.	他们必须抵制以权谋私——谋他们自己、他们的家庭或他们的文化认同群体之私——的诱惑，并拒绝为朋友、金主和游说集团提供特殊便利或照顾的诱惑，不管他们多么强大。


Maintaining a high standard of impartiality is not easy, but it is far from impossible.	保持高公平标准绝非易事，但也绝非不可能。


President Pedro Pires of Cape Verde was awarded the 2011 Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, for transforming his country into “a model of democracy, stability, and increased prosperity.”	佛得角总统佩德罗·皮雷（Pedro Pires）2011年获得易卜拉欣非洲领导力成就奖（Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership），原因是他将他的国家改变为“民主、稳定和日益繁荣的典范”。


Pires retired from office without even a house to his name; he worked for the people, not to amass personal wealth.	皮雷离职时名下没有一栋房产； 他为人民工作，而不是为敛财工作。


The third criterion for good leadership – competence – is not just a matter of how much knowledge a leader already possesses.	好领导力的第三个标准——胜任力——并不只是具备多少知识那么简单。


As Marshall noted, it also consists in leaders’ capacity to learn from their mistakes and to prepare themselves and those around them for important decisions.	马歇尔指出，胜任力还包括领导人从错误中学习和让自己和周围人群随时做好做出重要决定的能力。


Chilcot’s verdict on Britain’s lack of preparation for the Iraq War and its aftermath is damning in this regard.	奇尔科特调查认定英国对伊拉克战争及其后果准备不足，便是对胜任力的全盘否定。


So is the Brexiteers’ lack of any plan whatsoever for how to proceed after the referendum.	英国脱欧派完全没有处理公投后果的计划亦然。


It is time to revitalize good leadership.	必须重振好领导力。


Voters need to see candidates who show purpose, impartiality, and competence.	选民需要看到候选人如何展现目标、公平和胜任力。


If they don’t, they will continue to vote against the establishment that they believe has failed them – even if it means voting for turmoil in Europe or a reckless narcissist in the US.	如果没有，他们将继续投票反对他们认为辜负了他们的建制派——即使这意味着投票支持欧洲的动乱和美国的鲁莽自恋狂。


The Battle for Water	水之战争


NEW YORK – The sharpening international geopolitical competition over natural resources has turned some strategic resources into engines of power struggle.	纽约—自然资源的国际地缘政治竞争愈演愈烈，导致一些战略之源成了实力斗争的推动器。


Transnational water resources have become an especially active source of competition and conflict, triggering a dam-building race and prompting growing calls for the United Nations to recognize water as a key security concern.	跨国水资源已成为特别活跃的竞争和冲突原因，引发了各国的建坝竞赛，越来越多的人呼吁联合国把水看做关键性安全问题。


Water is different from other natural resources.	水和其他自然资源不同。


After all, there are substitutes for many resources, including oil, but none for water.	毕竟，许多资源都能找到替代品，包括石油，但水不行。


Similarly, countries can import fossil fuels, mineral ores, and resources from the biosphere like fish and timber; but they cannot import water, which is essentially local, on a large scale and on a prolonged – much less permanent – basis.	类似地，国家可以进口化石燃料、矿石和其他诸如鱼和木材等生物资源； 但国家不能进口水，从根本上说，水是大规模、长时间（尽管远非持久）的立国之本。


Water is heavier than oil, making it very expensive to ship or transport across long distances even by pipeline (which would require large, energy-intensive pumps).	水重于油，这决定了船运或长途输送（即使使用管道进行，而这又需要大型能源密集型水泵）成本极其高昂。


The paradox of water is that it sustains life but can also cause death when it becomes a carrier of deadly microbes or takes the form of a tsunami, flash flood, storm, or hurricane.	水的悖论之处在于，它能维持生命，但也可以造成死亡，如果它成为致命微生物携带者或以海啸、洪水、风暴或飓风形式来临的话。


Many of the greatest natural disasters of our time – including, for example, the Fukushima catastrophe in 2011 – have been water-related.	许多现时代最严重的自然灾害——包括2011年福岛灾难——都和水有关。


Global warming is set to put potable-water supplies under increasing strain – even as oceans rise and the intensity and frequency of storms and other extreme weather events increase.	全球变暖使得饮用水供应日渐捉襟见肘——尽管海平面有所上升，风暴和其他极端天气事件的烈度和频率都在增加。


Rapid economic and demographic expansion has already turned adequate access to potable water into a major issue across large parts of the world.	经济和人口的快速扩张已经让获得充足的饮用水成为世界大部地区的主要问题。


Lifestyle changes, for example, have spurred increasing per capita water consumption, with rising incomes promoting dietary change, for example, especially higher consumption of meat, production of which is ten times more water-intensive, on average, than plant-based calories and proteins.	比如，生活方式的转变刺激了人均水消费量的增加，比如收入上升促使饮食结构发生了改变，特别是肉类消费有所提高，而平均而言，生产肉类卡路里和蛋白质的水密集程度十倍于植物。


Today, the earth’s human population totals slightly more than seven billion, but the livestock population at any given time numbers more than 150 billion.	如今，地球人口总数略高于70亿，但任何时候的牲口数量都超过1500亿。


The direct ecological footprint of the livestock population is larger than that of the human population, with rapidly rising global meat consumption becoming a key driver of water stress by itself.	随着全球肉类消费的迅速增长本身已成为水压力的主要推动因素，牲口数量的直接生态足迹比人类更大。


Political and economic water wars are already being waged in several regions, reflected in dam construction on international rivers and coercive diplomacy or other means to prevent such works.	政治和经济上的谁战争已经在不少地区打响，国际河流上的水坝建设以及用强制外交或其他手段防止这类工程的尝试就是明��。


Consider, for example, the silent water war triggered by Ethiopia’s dam building on the Blue Nile, which has elicited Egyptian threats of covert or overt military reprisals.	比如，埃塞俄比亚在青尼罗河上修建大坝便引起了静悄悄的谁战争，埃及已表示要进行隐蔽或公然的军事报复。


A report reflecting the joint judgment of US intelligence agencies warned last year that the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism would become more likely in the next decade in some regions.	去年的一份体现美国情报机构联合判断的报告警告说，未来十年，某些地区极有可能把水作为战争武器或恐怖主义工具。


The InterAction Council, comprising more than 30 former heads of state or government, has called for urgent action to prevent some countries battling severe water shortages from becoming failed states.	由30多位前国家或政府领导人组成的国际行动理事会（InterAction Council）呼吁立刻采取行动防止某些与严重水短缺做着艰苦斗争的国家沦为失败国家。


The US State Department, for its part, has upgraded water to “a central US foreign policy concern.”	美国国务院也将水升格为“美国外交政策核心关注点之一”。


In many countries, inadequate local water availability is increasingly constraining decisions about where to set up new manufacturing facilities and energy plants.	在许多国家，本地水资源不足正在日益制约何处建设新生产设施和发电站的决策。


The World Bank estimates that such constraints are costing China 2.3% of GDP.	世界银行估计，这一制约因素给中国造成的成本相当于GDP的2%。


China, however, is not yet in the category of water-stressed states.	但是，中国并非水严重短缺国。


Those that are, stretching from South Korea and India to Egypt and Israel, are paying an even higher price for their water problems.	属于此类的国家——从韩国和印度到埃及和以色列——因为水问题付出的代价更加高昂。


These countries already understand that water is a renewable but finite resource.	这些国家已经认识到，水是一种可再生但有限的资源。


Nature’s water-replenishment capacity is fixed, limiting the world’s usable freshwater resources to about 200,000 cubic kilometers.	大自然的水补充能力是固定的，世界可用淡水资源总量只有200 000立方千米。


But the human population has almost doubled since 1970, while the global economy has grown even faster.	但自1970年以来，人口数量已接近翻番，而全球经济增长速度更加迅速。


Major increases in water demand, however, are being driven not merely by economic and demographic growth, or by the additional energy, manufacturing, and food production to meet rising consumption levels, but also by the fact that the global population is getting fatter.	但是，水需求的大量增加并不仅仅是由经济和人口增长推动的，也不仅仅是由于满足消费水平升高而增加能源、制造品和食品产量导致的，全球人口越来越胖也是原因之一。


The average body mass index (BMI) of humans has been increasing in the post-World War II period, but especially since the 1980’s, with the prevalence of obesity doubling in the past three decades.	人类平均体重指数（BMI）自二战结束以来节节上升，且自20世纪80年代以后加速增长，过去三十年中肥胖率翻了一番。


Heavier citizens make heavier demands on natural resources, especially water and energy.	变重的人民导致了变重的自然资源需求，特别是水和能源需求。


The issue thus is not just about how many mouths there are to feed, but also how much excess body fat there is on the planet.	因此，问题不仅在于有多少张嘴需要喂饱，还在于地球上有多少多于的人体脂肪。


For example, a study published in the British journal BMC Public Health has found that if the rest of the world had the same average body mass index as the US, this would be the equivalent of adding almost one billion people to the global population, greatly exacerbating water stress.	比如，英国《BMC公共卫生》（BMC Public Health）杂志发表的一项研究发现，如果全世界平均体重指数都向美国看齐，其效果相当于全球人口增加近十亿人，会大大增加水压力。


With the era of cheap, bountiful water having been replaced by increasing supply and quality constraints, many investors are beginning to view water as the new oil.	充足、廉价的水时代已经一去不返，取而代之的是日益加剧的供给和质量制约，在这样的局面下，许多投资者开始把水视为新的石油。


The dramatic rise of the bottled-water industry since the 1990’s attests to the increasing commodification of the world’s most critical resource.	20世纪90年代以来，瓶装水行业蓬勃发展，这是世界最关键资源日益商品化的写照。


Not only are water shortages likely to intensify and spread, but consumers also will increasingly have to pay more for their water supply.	不仅水短缺可能恶化和蔓延，消费者也将为水供应支付越来越高的价格。


This double whammy can be mitigated only by innovative water management and conservation, and by developing nontraditional supply sources.	只有水管理和保护方面的创新、开发非传统供给源能减轻这一双重难题。


As in the oil and gas sector – where tapping unconventional sources, such as shale and tar sands, has proved a game changer – the water sector must adopt all unconventional options, including recycling wastewater and desalinating ocean and brackish waters.	和油气行业一样——从页岩和油砂等非常规资源中提取石油已经成为局面改变因素——水行业也必须尽可能采取非常规手段，包括循环利用废水和淡化海水和咸水。


In short, we must focus on addressing our water-supply problems as if our lives depended on it. In fact, they do.	简言之，我们必须把解决我们水供应问题当作生死攸关的大事来关注。


The Biology of Luxury	奢侈品中的生物学


PARIS – Despite the global economic crisis, sales of luxury goods are surging worldwide.	巴黎——尽管受到全球经济危机的影响，全球奢侈品的销售仍在激增。


Why?	这究竟是什么原因？


While marketing has contributed to the rise, the luxury market’s robust growth is actually rooted in biology.	尽管营销活动能够部分解释奢侈品消费的上涨，但奢侈品市场的强劲增长究其原因实际要归功于生物学。


Discussions about the structure of human thought have long been dominated by the Enlightenment view that reality is composed of four elements: space, time, matter, and energy.	对人类思想结构的探讨长期以来深受启蒙运动的影响，认为现实由空间、时间、物质和能量等四种要素组成。


But recently, a fifth element, information, has entered the debate.	但不久前，信息作为第五种要素进入了讨论的范畴。


And information, it turns out, is crucial to understanding the fundamental drivers of luxury-goods consumption, and thus to predicting the luxury market’s future.	而且事实证明信息对于理解奢侈品消费的根本动因至关重要，因此可以预测奢侈品市场的未来。


Living organisms communicate, and the information that they exchange shapes their reality.	活体生物相互交流，他们对现实的理解取决于他们所交换的信息。


While animals use colorful displays and complicated behaviors to signal fitness and strength, humans use luxury goods to demonstrate economic health.	动物用缤纷的色彩和复杂的行为来显示健康和力量，而人类则利用奢侈品作为经济状况的标志。


But, more than a symbol, buying luxury goods could indicate future success, owing to the selective advantage that showing off provides.	但购买奢侈品绝不仅仅是一种标志，鉴于炫耀所能提供的选择性优势，它还可能预示着未来的成功。


In nature, competitors perform, and the most compelling, beautiful spectacle wins.	自然界中有竞争才有成就，最引人注目、最美丽者最终胜出。


For most animals, males are the performers.	对多数动物而言，雄性动物更需要竞争。


Male birds, for example, often have brightly colored plumage or intricate appendages, such as the Australian lyrebird’s long tail.	比如雄性鸟类往往拥有色彩艳丽的羽毛或精致复杂的长尾，像澳大利亚琴鸟就拖着长长的尾巴。


As a result, competitive displays have been interpreted as a way to demonstrate fitness to a potential mate.	结果是竞争性炫耀被视为向潜在配偶展示健康的方法。


A bird that survives, despite inconvenient plumage that slows it down or makes it visible to predators, must be fit, and will likely sire a healthy progeny.	漂亮的羽毛吸引掠食者，拖慢奔跑速度，但在羽毛的拖累下仍可存活的鸟类肯定非常健康，而且繁衍出健康的后代的可能性也较大。


Given that females bear the physical burden of offspring, an unobtrusive appearance is more advantageous – and thus more common – in nature.	因为雌性承担着繁衍后代的任务，外表不引人注目似乎是明智的选择——因此在自然界中这种现象也是比较普遍的。


But humans are social creatures with no natural predators, so female competition is more widespread – and demonstrative performance and display are more likely.	但人类是没有天敌的社会动物，因此存在着普遍的女性竞争——也更有可能出现炫耀性的行为和举动。


Indeed, while visual manifestations of wealth are prevalent for both genders, women’s appearance is frequently more vivid (and more closely scrutinized).	其实，虽然炫富在男女两性中均颇为盛行，但女性的表现似乎更加生动（也更受人关注）。


But effective display is costly.	但有效的炫耀行为代价不菲。


Developing complex, vibrant plumage demands significant energy and genetic resources.	长出精致漂亮的羽毛需要耗费可观的能量和遗传资源。


Genes are difficult to maintain, requiring subtle and energy-intensive correcting processes.	基因很难维护，需要耗费大量的能量来进行微妙的调校过程。


Just as writing too fast can cause typographical errors that garble a text, rapid changes to the genome can undermine a species’ integrity.	就像写字过快可能导致错字从而改变字意一样，基因的快速变化也可能破坏物种的完整性。


Likewise, purchasing luxury goods requires substantial financial resources.	同样，购买奢侈品需要雄厚的财力支撑。


This cost dictates the display’s competitive impact.	付出的成本决定炫耀行为的竞争性影响力。


In today’s information-based world, selection is effective only if a striking appearance is obtained at a very high price – and that price is known.	在当今这个以信息为本的世界，只有以极高代价取得醒目的外观才能在选择中产生实际作用——上述代价是人所共知的。


For example, those who use cosmetics known to be expensive often seem healthier, more vibrant, and more attractive than those who do not.	比方说，选用人所共知的昂贵化妆品的人往往看起来更健康、更有活力，比那些不用的人吸引力更强。


This is not the result of efficiency (the most effective cosmetics frequently become pharmaceutical drugs).	这并非效果使然（最有效的化妆品往往是某种药品）。


Rather, it signals a lifestyle that values the preservation of beauty and youth.	相反，它标志着一种重视保持美丽和青春的生活方式。


Cosmetics, like all luxury products, gain influence not from their production, or even their purchase, but from their visibility.	像所有奢侈品一样，化妆品的影响不是源于生产，甚至也不是源于购买，而是源于品牌知名度。


Indeed, an expensive item with no label or identifying characteristics has less competitive impact than a recognized item or brand.	其实，没有标志或识别指征的昂贵物品比为人所知的品牌或物品要少有影响力。


For luxury goods to have any function, society needs information about their cost.	奢侈品要想发挥作用，社会必须了解它的价值。


This has been true to varying degrees throughout history – sometimes resulting in price bubbles.	这有史以来或多或少都是真理——有时还会导致价格泡沫。


False information, such as counterfeit goods, jeopardizes the competition-based selection process.	假冒商品所释放的虚假信息损害了以竞争为本的选择性过程。


Animals commonly use mimicry to capitalize on knowledge – or fear – of another’s strength.	动物往往通过模仿来利用对其他同类力量的了解或恐惧。


By imitating an animal with a well-known protective profile, a weaker one may enjoy selective benefits without the costs.	通过模仿众所周知的具有保护性的动物，弱者可以不付出任何代价就可以享受到选择性收益。


But mimicry’s success in nature depends on the ratio of the original to the ersatz.	但自然界中模拟的成功取决于原版和替代品之间的比例。


If there are too few of the original, the profile loses its significance, and its protective value vanishes.	原版太过稀少的形象就会失去意义，与之相关的保护价值也会大打折扣。


Similarly, nobody would display a symbol of wealth if it were too common.	同样，没有人会去炫耀司空见惯的财富象征。


Therefore, assessing whether luxury goods will maintain their impact, and thus their appeal, requires monitoring the extent of counterfeiting.	因此评估奢侈品是否会保持影响力和吸引力需要控制假冒产品的泛滥程度。


Given that luxury goods provide individuals with a competitive advantage, higher luxury-goods sales could indicate a brighter economic future for a country.	鉴于奢侈品能为个体带来竞争性优势，一个国家奢侈品销售的增长可能预示着更美好的经济未来。


In a time of crisis, countries in which luxury goods play their selective role effectively are the safest bets for productive investment.	危机时期奢侈品有效发挥选择作用的国家是进行生产性投资的理想对象。


Why Wolfensohn Mattered	Wolfensohn为何如此重要


At the end of this month, James Wolfensohn’s ten-year tenure as President of the World Bank comes to an end.	这个月底，James Wolfensohn作为世界银行总裁的十年任期即将结束。


Though much remains to be accomplished and consolidated, his achievements as leader of the international development community are noteworthy and provide a strong foundation upon which to build.	尽管还有很多事情尚待完成和巩固，作为国际发展团体领导人，他所取得的成就非凡卓越，为以后的工作奠定了强有力的基础。


Perhaps Wolfensohn’s most important contribution was to clarify the Bank’s mission – to promote growth and eradicate poverty in the developing world – while recognizing the massive scale of that task and the inadequacy of previous approaches.	也许Wolfensohn最为重要的一项贡献就是明确了世界银行的使命所在——促进发展中世界的经济增长、消灭贫穷——同时他们也意识到了这个任务的范围之广以及先前方式的不适当。


At one time, it was thought that since developing countries had less capital than more developed countries, merely supplying more capital would solve their problems.	人们一度以为，由于发达国家比发展中国家拥有更多资本，所以只要提供更多的资本就能够解决发展中国家的问题。


Indeed, this view provided part of the rationale for the World Bank: if a shortage of funds was the problem, clearly a Bank would have to be a key part of the solution.	事实上，这个观点为世界银行提供了一部分理由：如果问题就是基金短缺的话，很明显一个银行就必须得成为解决方案的重要部分。


In the 1980’s, there was a switch from projects to policies – structural adjustments, involving trade liberalization, privatization, and macroeconomic stabilization (typically focusing on prices rather than employment or output.)	上世纪80年代有了一个从计划到政策的转变——涉及到贸易自由化、民营私有化，以及宏观经济的稳定性（比起就业率和产量，尤为关注价格）的结构调整。


But these policies proved neither necessary nor sufficient for growth; the countries of East Asia, which followed different policies, achieved faster growth and were far more successful in poverty reduction.	但是事实证明这些政策对经济增长既非必要也无甚效果； 东亚许多国家虽然实施着不同的政策，却取得了更快的经济增长，在减少贫穷方面也成功得多。


Under Wolfensohn’s leadership, the Bank began to look for multifaceted strategies, framed by what he called a Comprehensive Development Framework.	在Wolfensohn的领导下，世界银行开始寻求一种根据他所称的“全球发展框架”来设计的多层面战略。


Many of the links were obvious, but had been given insufficient attention.	许多事物之间的关联显而易见，但却很少有人注意到。


Improved rural productivity or better market access would do little good if roads and harbors were lacking.	如果没有公路和港口，得以提高的农村产量以及更为良好的市场准入就没无甚优势可言。


In a malaria-infested country, mosquito eradication programs can boost production and even increase effective land usage, as acres that were almost uninhabitable become livable.	在疟疾肆虐的国家，灭蚊计划可以提高产量，甚至还可以提高土地有效使用率，使那些不适于人居住的耕地变得可居住。


The returns from education, too, can be increased, if more individuals live longer because of better health care.	如果更多人在健康医疗条件下更加长寿，教育的回报也会增加。


The Bank began to recognize that developing countries differed from more developed countries not just in their lack of resources; there was also a knowledge gap.	世界银行开始意识到发展中国家与发达国家的区别不仅仅在于他们缺少资源，还有知识方面的缺口。


This was particularly important as the world moved into what we call the “knowledge economy.”	当世界迈入我们所谓的“知识经济”时代之际，这点显得尤为重要。


Among the success stories were India and East Asia, which invested heavily not just in primary education, but also in secondary and tertiary education, and especially in technology and science.	印度和东亚取得了成功，他们不仅在初级教育上，也在中等教育和高等教育，尤其是在技术和科学方面大力投资。


This represented a major change in the Bank’s approach to education, which previously focused on primary schooling .	这代表了世界银行对教育的一个重大策略改变，它原来只把重点放在初级学校教育。


Wolfensohn’s campaign against corruption also represented a major change in thinking, a shift from downsizing the state to improving the State.	Wolfensohn发起的抵制腐败运动也代表了思想的一个重大转变，从 减小 国家 规模 转而 改善 国家。


Failed states, it was now acknowledged, were no less an impediment to development than were overbearing states.	人们现在已经意识到，比起那些失败国家，霸道国家对发展的阻碍更大。


The Bank’s 1997 World Development Report reflected this new attempt at finding a balanced role for the state, and showed an understanding of the limitations both of markets and government.	世界银行1997年的《世界银行报告》反映了这一新的尝试，即努力为国家找到平衡角色，并表现出它对市场和政府的局限性的理解。


Under Wolfensohn, the Bank repeatedly stood up to the United States, where both the Clinton and Bush administrations might have preferred a more pliant President.	在Wolfensohn的带领下，世界银行一次次地对抗美国。 克林顿和布什政府也许都会更喜欢一个更为顺从的总裁。


When then US Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers tried to change the Bank’s Decennial report on poverty – to downgrade concerns about insecurity and empowerment and to focus more narrowly on income – the Bank prevailed.	那时候的美国财政部副部长劳伦斯·桑莫斯（Lawrence Summers）试图改变世界银行对贫困问题所作的十年报告——降低对安全缺乏和赋权问题的关注程度，把焦点更集中地放在收入问题上——但是世界银行胜利了。


When the US tried to suppress the Bank’s call for a more balanced intellectual property regime – one more consonant with the interests of developing countries – the Bank prevailed yet again.	当世界银行呼吁一个更为平衡、更符合发展国家利益的知识产权制度，而当美国试图压制时，世界银行再次胜利了。


Both the Bush administration and the EU would undoubtedly have preferred less criticism of their trade regimes, which have such adverse effects on developing countries.	布什政府和欧盟的贸易体系对发展中国家具有如此不利的影响，他们无疑都希望少一点对他们贸易体系的批评。


It would have been helpful for Bush if the World Bank quietly accepted proposals to finance debt relief for the poorest countries by depleting its reserves, thereby making poor countries pay for the poorest by reducing the Bank’s lending capacity.	如果世界银行平静地接受这个提议，即通过耗尽最贫穷国家的储备来为减免他们的债务融资、然后通过减少世界银行的贷款资本让贫穷国家为最贫穷国家付钱，那对布什会大有帮助。


But it would have been wrong, and the Bank again stood up for the interests of the developing world.	但那将会铸成大错，世界银行再一次为了发展中国家的利益拍案而起。


Changing the relationship between the Bank and the countries seeking its help was no less of an achievement.	把改变世界银行与寻求它帮助的国家之间的关系誉为一大功绩毫不为过。


In the past, the Bank was seen as a purveyor of neoliberal orthodoxy – an approach to development whose credibility had weakened by the time Wolfensohn arrived, and whose standing has eroded further since.	过去，世界银行被认为是通向发展的一种途���——新自由正统学说的传播者。 在Wolfensohn到来之前，新自由正统学说的可信度已经削弱，它的立场自那以后也已经进一步遭到侵蚀。


That orthodoxy often went hand in hand with the national, corporate, and financial interests of the advanced industrial countries, or so it was perceived.	那个正统学说大致就被认为通常是与发达工业国家的民族、公司和金融利益紧密关联的。


Worse, the Bank typically demanded myriad conditions in return for assistance, an approach that undermined democratic processes and domestic ownership of policies, thereby enervating their effectiveness.	更糟的是，世界银行提出许多条件作为它付出资助的回报，这种做法破坏了民主进程和政策的国内所有权，从而降低这些政策的效率。


When Bank research showed that conditionality did not work, the Bank under Wolfensohn moved away from it.	当世界银行的调查显示这种方法行不通的时候，Wolfensohn带领下的世界银行抛弃了这种做法。


The Bank began to realize that on many key issues there were legitimate disagreements among economists about the right course of action.	世界银行开始意识到，经济学家们在许多重要问题上对行动的正确方法存在着诸多合法争论。


Democracy requires active debate about economic policies, not the suppression of discussion or the delegation of decision-making to experts, whether domestic or foreign.	民主需要对经济政策的积极辩论，而不是压制辩论或把决定权授予不管是国内还是国外的专家。


The Bank’s attempt to open the debate was not well received, by either the US Treasury or the IMF, but its influence was undeniable.	世界银行力图打开辩论局面的努力并不被美国财政部或国际货币基金组织所接受，但是它的影响却不可否认。


The Fund, too, began to reduce conditionality, and eventually it began to question the desirability of capital market liberalization, which previously had been central to its agenda.	国际货币基金组织也开始减少条件，并且终于开始质疑人们对资本市场自由化的期待究竟有多高，这原先可是该基金议程的重中之重。


Gradually the Bank came to be perceived, at least in many quarters, as a partner in the joint quest for growth and poverty reduction, not an adversary attempting to promote a Western economic agenda or ideology.	渐渐地，世界银行开始被许多地区看作联合寻求经济增长和减少贫困的合作者，而不再是一个试图推动西方经济议程或意识形态的对手。


Wolfensohn meant it when he said that he wanted to put the country in the driver’s seat, though not everyone within the Bank was as enthusiastic about this (or some of his other) initiatives.	当Wolfensohn说他要让国家做主的时候，他就是这个意思，尽管不是每个世界银行里面的人都对此（或他的其他行动）开端持有热情。


James Wolfensohn presided over the World Bank at a time of enormous change, tumult, and opportunity, an era marked by the end of the Cold War, the postcommunist transition to market economies, and the East Asian – and then global – financial crises.	James Wolfensohn在一个改革巨变的时代坐上了世界银行总裁的座位，这是一个嘈杂骚动、充满机遇的时代，是一个以冷战结束为标志、后共产主义向市场经济转型、全球紧随东亚发生金融危机的时代。


His commitment to those in the developing world has been contagious. He has left an impressive legacy for his successor to take up.	他对这些发生在发展中世界的一切所做的事情感染了众人，他为他的接班者留下了一笔可观的遗产。


A Virtuous Cycle for Conservation	良性保护循环


NEW YORK – Poor and rural people around the world rely on plants and animals for shelter, food, income, and medicine.	纽约——世界各地的穷人和农民要靠动植物来获取庇护、食物、收入和药品。


In fact, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 15) on sustainable ecosystems acknowledges many developing societies’ close relationship with nature when it calls for increased “capacity of local communities to pursue sustainable livelihood opportunities.”	事实上，联合国可持续生态系统的可持续发展目标 (SDG 15) 承认许多发展中社会与自然有着密切的联系，并呼吁强化“当地社会追求可持续谋生机会的能力。


But how is this to be achieved?	”但究竟该如何实现这一目标？


The 1975 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) provides a viable framework for reducing poverty while also conserving nature.	1975年野生动植物濒危物种国际贸易公约(CITES)提供了在控制贫困的同时保护自然的可行的架构。


It regulates the harvesting and exchange of more than 35,000 wildlife species across a range of locales.	该公约规定了超过35，000种野生物种在一系列区域的生产和交易行为。


Nature has been described as the “GDP of the poor.”	大自然被誉为“穷人的GDP”。


The CITES framework, combined with strong national conservation policies, can simultaneously protect wild species and benefit poor, rural, and indigenous people, by encouraging countries and communities to adopt sound environmental management plans.	野生动植物濒危物种国际贸易公约框架结合强势的国内保护政策，可以通过鼓励国家和社会采纳健全的环境管理计划，同时实现保护野生物种并惠及穷人、农民和土著民众的生活。


For example, under CITES, Andes communities shear the vicuña for its fine wool, which they sell to the luxury fashion industry in other parts of the world.	举例来讲，在野生动植物濒危物种国际贸易公约框架下，安第斯山区的民众剪下小羊驼的细毛向世界其他地方的时尚奢侈行业出售。


Cameroonians collect African cherry bark for export to European pharmaceutical companies.	喀麦隆人收集樱桃树皮出口欧洲制药企业。


And people on the Tibetan Plateau in Bhutan make a living selling caterpillar fungus to the traditional-medicine industry.	而生活在不丹青藏高原上的民众��依靠向传统医药产业售卖虫草来维持生活。


However, outside of CITES, limited guidance is available to ensure that legal trade is sustainable and beneficial to the poor.	但是在野生动植物濒危物种国际贸易公约框架外，确保合法贸易可持续并惠及穷人的指导性原则非常缺乏。


Sustainable trade often depends on poor and rural communities conserving their own resources at the local level.	可持续贸易往往取决于贫困的农村民众在当地实行资源保护。


To see what that looks like, the International Trade Center (ITC) recently examined how people in Southeast Asia sustainably manage the CITES-listed python trade.	为了弄清楚实际状况，国际贸易中心（ITC）不久前对东南亚民众如何管理野生动植物濒危物种国际贸易公约规定的蟒蛇贸易进行了研究。


Python skins are commonly used as raw material in the luxury fashion industry, and ITC surveys of python-skin harvesters, farmers, processors, and exporters in Vietnam and Malaysia found that the trade reinforces livelihood resilience by providing an additional source of income.	蟒蛇皮通常在时尚奢侈品行业被用作原材料，而国际贸易中心对越南和马来西亚蟒蛇皮采集者、农民和出口商的调查显示该贸易通过提供额外收入来源强化了当地民众的抗风险能力。