If people like Shah Jahan – who supposedly wanted to “wipe out all Hindus from India” – were part of India’s history, Som said, “we will change this history.”	如果说沙贾汗皇帝——据说这人想“在印度的地界里消灭所有印度教徒”——是印度历史的一部分，对此桑姆则宣称“我们将修改这个历史”。


India’s Hindu extremists have long considered it humiliating that a monument built by a Muslim emperor could be Hindu-majority India’s most recognizable site.	让印度教极端分子一直感到耻辱的是，一位穆斯林皇帝建造的纪念碑竟然被视为这个印度教徒占多数国家中最具代表性的遗址。


The difference now is that this is no longer a fringe group; its members are now in power in Uttar Pradesh, with enablers leading the government in Delhi.	但问题是如今这帮人不再属于边缘群体； 其成员现在在北方邦执政，其背后推手更在德里领导着全国政府。


Adityanath, for example, first gained attention for his incendiary anti-Muslim speeches – he spent 11 days in jail in 2007 for fomenting religious tension – and for leading a squad of volunteers who specialized in attacking Muslim targets.	举个例子，最初令阿迪提亚纳受到关注的是其煽动性的反穆斯林言论——为此他因煽动宗教紧张的罪名——并领导一队专门袭击穆斯林目标的志愿者——于2007年在监狱里蹲了11天。


He earned notoriety by calling India’s most beloved film star – a Muslim – a terrorist.	他因为将印度最受欢迎的电影明星——也是一名穆斯林——称之为恐怖分子而臭名昭着。


More recently, he urged the national government to impose a travel ban on Muslims, as US President Donald Trump has attempted to do.	最近他还敦促国家政府实施美国总统特朗普试图实行的穆斯林旅行禁令。


Adityanath’s attacks on the Taj, however, have sparked national outrage powerful enough to force him to visit Agra to assure an anxious public that his government is committed to protecting the monument.	然而阿迪亚那纳对泰姬陵的攻击激起了全国性的民众愤怒情绪，迫使他前往阿格拉访问，好让焦虑的公众确信他的政府会致力于保护这座古迹。


“What is important,” he grudgingly conceded, “is that it was built by the blood and sweat of India’s farmers and laborers.”	他勉强承认说：“重要的是，泰姬陵是由印度农民和劳动者的血汗浇筑而成的。 ”


This acknowledgement is only partly reassuring, as it enables another fringe position on the Taj: the late chauvinist historian P.N. Oak’s claim that the monument was originally a Shiva temple named “Tejo Mahalaya.”	但这种承认还没法令人完全放心，因为它引出了另一种让泰姬陵边缘化的说法：已故沙文主义历史学家P·N·奥克（P. N.


Some misguided Hindutva elements have already been caught trying to perform a Shiva puja (a rite to worship Lord Shiva) there.	Oak）声称这座纪念碑最初是一个名为“泰茹马哈拉亚”的湿婆神庙。 为此还抓了一批被误导的印度教分子，因为他们试图（在泰姬陵）举行湿婆神崇拜仪式。


The RSS, the parent body of the Hindu “family” of organizations that includes the BJP, has even called for Muslims to be prohibited from praying at the Taj.	而印度教“大家庭”（包含印度人民党在内）的母体组织印度国民志愿团（Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh）甚至要求禁止穆斯林在泰姬陵祈祷。


For seven decades after independence, Indian identity rested on cultural pluralism.	独立后的七十年间，印度人的身份认同一直构建于文化多元化之上。


Now, the Hindu-chauvinist BJP is seeking to redefine India as a Hindu nation long subjugated by foreigners – not just British colonizers, but also Muslim conquerors.	如今持有印度教沙文主义立场的人民党正试图将印度重新定义为长期受外国人压迫的印度教国家——这个外国人不仅是英国的殖民者，还有穆斯林的征服者。


By stoking long-buried resentments and promoting hatred of Muslims, the BJP’s kulturkampf is dividing Indian society, fragmenting its political discourse, and undermining its soft power in the world.	通过煽动长期潜藏的怨恨以及对穆斯林的仇恨，印度人民党的文化分裂行为正在分化印度社会，撕裂其政治话语，并损害该国在世界舞台上的软实力。


If the BJP is to avoid doing further damage to the Indian nation, it must recognize that the past is not a blunt tool for scoring petty political points.	如果印度人民党要避免对印度民族造成进一步的损害，那就必须认识到翻旧账并不是一个用来积攒零碎政治分数的趁手工具。


One cannot avenge oneself upon history: history is its own revenge.	一个人无法去报复历史，因为历史本身就是对它自己的报复。


How India’s Caste System Survives	印度种姓制度如何生存


NEW DELHI – On January 17, Rohith Vemula, a PhD candidate at the University of Hyderabad in India’s Telangana state, hanged himself.	新德里—1月17日，印度泰伦加纳邦海德拉巴大学博士候选人维穆拉（Rohith Vemula）上吊自尽。


Even in a country of 1.2 billion people, a single death can have a major impact.	即使在这个拥有12亿人的国家，一个人的死也能造成巨大影响。


Vemula was a Dalit – a member of what was once known as the “untouchables,” at the bottom of the Hindu caste system.	维穆拉是一位“达利特”（Dalit），即曾经的“贱民”，属于印度教种姓制度的最底层。


He was also a leader of the Ambedkar Students Association at Hyderabad University, seeking to promote Dalit rights.	他也是海德拉巴大学安贝卡学生会（Ambedkar Students Association）领袖，为达利特主张权利。


In death, Vemula has achieved something he could not have imagined: He has become a national hero, his tragedy emblematic of the toxic durability of caste in India’s development narrative.	维穆拉的死让他取得了无法想象的成就：他成为国家英雄，他的悲剧成为最好的写照，证明了种姓在印度发展叙事中的挥之不去的遗毒。


Unlike race, caste is invisible: a person’s face does not indicate it.	和种族不同，种姓看不见：看一个人的面孔无法知道他属于哪个种姓。


Yet it retains a powerful hold on Indian society, limiting the opportunities available at all stages of life.	但种姓在印度社会中根深蒂固，它限制了一个人在生命所有各阶段所能获得的机会。


To be a Dalit is to wear an invisible stigma that dogs one’s daily interactions.	身为达利特，你就披上了看不见的耻辱外衣，日常互动都要低人一等。


Vemula’s death has reminded Indians once again that the more than 300 million who belong to the lowest castes, as well as the “tribals” or indigenous people, still face discrimination, prejudice, hostility, and even violence on each step of the social ladder.	维穆拉之死再次提醒印度人，三亿多属于最低级种姓的人，以及“部落民”（即土著），仍面临着来自社会所有阶层的歧视、偏见、敌意甚至暴力。


To be sure, India’s government has made significant efforts to redress the situation.	诚然，印度政府花了很大力气改变这一状况。


Nine days after Vemula’s death, India celebrated the 66th anniversary of the adoption of its constitution, which sought to combat the country’s rigid social stratification with the world’s first and most comprehensive affirmative-action program.	维穆拉死后九天，印度迎来宪法颁布66周年纪念。 印度宪法致力于通过全世界第一个、也是最全面的平权运动打击僵化的社会层级制。


Designated castes and tribes were guaranteed not only equality of opportunity, but also positive outcomes, aided by quotas for educational institutions, government jobs, and even seats in parliament and state assemblies.	出生时便已确定的种姓和部落不但决定了机会的质量，也决定了积极结果，它决定了教育机构、政府工作岗位甚至国家议会和邦国民大会席位的名额。


These quotas, or “reservations,” were granted based on people’s (presumably immutable) caste identities.	这些名额，或称“保留席位”，根据你的种姓成分（几乎终身无法改变）授予。


It was a small step toward compensating the millions of unfortunates who had suffered daily the injustices and humiliations of “untouchability.”	这是一个小进步，略微补偿了在日程生活中蒙受不公和“低贱”羞辱的数百万不幸的印度人。


Over the last 66 years, politicians have maintained a strong commitment to affirmative action.	在过去66年中，政客一直致力于平权运动。


Though originally intended to expire after ten years, the reservations have been extended for 70, with further extensions certain when they come up for renewal in 2020.	保留席位的做法最初计划十年后就取消，但现已延长到70年，在2020年截止期几乎肯定将再次延长。


The quotas remain the “third rail” of Indian politics; one touches it at one’s peril.	名额制保留了印度政治的“第三条路”； 打它的主意绝不会有好下场。


Yet Dalits feel only marginally better off than their wretched forebears.	但达利特人觉得他们的境况只是比悲惨的祖先略有改善。


And, indeed, they remain behind the advanced castes in terms of all socioeconomic indicators, from education levels to family income.	事实上，他们在从教育水平到家庭收入的所有社会经济指标上都仍然落后于其他高级种姓。


Vemula was admitted to his university on merit, not through the reservation system.	维穆拉凭借成绩进入大学，而不是通过保留席位制度。


Yet he faced all the prejudice that would be directed at any Dalit.	但他仍面临着所有达利特人可能遇到的偏见。


He left behind a passionate letter outlining his mistreatment at the hands of an insensitive and bureaucratic university administration.	他留下一封悲愤的遗书，列举了麻木不仁的大学官僚对他的严苛对待。


The ultimate indignity was the withholding of a fellowship on which he depended to support not only himself, but also his single mother – a punishment for his political activism.	把他击垮的打击是校方取消了他的助学金，而这不仅是他学业经济来源，还支持着他的单身母亲。 而取消助学金是对他积极参与政治活动的惩罚。


In fact, intensifying his letter’s pathos, he requested that part of the money the university owes him be paid to his family to cover debts he incurred as a result of being denied his fellowship.	事实上，让他的遗书更加感人的是，他要求将校方欠他的资金拿出一部分给他的家人，用于偿还他因为被取消助学金而欠下的债务。


Clearly, reservations of public-sector jobs and college seats alone have failed to end the discrimination.	显然，光靠保留公职工作岗位和大学学位无法终结歧视。


Vemula’s death sparked a wave of public protests, with leading politicians flocking to Hyderabad to add their voices to the growing clamor against not just the university, but also the government – especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who remained silent for nearly a week after the tragedy.	维穆拉之死引起了一系列群众示威，政治领袖纷纷来到海德拉巴，发声指责大学和政府——特别是在悲剧发生一周后仍保持沉默的总理莫迪。


Finally, Modi spoke emotionally at the Dalit-majority Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University in Lucknow (named for an iconic Dalit leader who had chaired the Constitution Drafting Committee), pleading that the issue not be politicized: “Politics has its place, but a mother lost her son.”	最终，莫迪在达利特人占多数的勒克瑙安贝卡大学（Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University，用担任宪法起草委员会主席的传奇达利特领袖安贝卡的名字命名）发表动情讲话，恳求不要将该事件政治化：“政治很重要，但一位母亲已经失去了她的儿子。 ”


Yet politics is integral to the problems highlighted by the tragedy.	但政治是这场悲剧所突显的问题不可或缺的一部分。


India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, had hoped that caste consciousness would wither away after independence.	印度首任总理尼赫鲁希望独立能够消除种姓意识。


But the opposite has happened.	但事实正好相反。


Because caste was such a powerful source of self-identification, it proved to be a useful tool for political mobilization in India’s electoral democracy: When Indians cast their vote, they too often vote their caste.	种姓是无比强大的自我认同，成为印度选举民主中极有用的政治动员工具：印度人的选票常常投给同一种姓的候选人。


Granting sops to various castes proved a major vote-getting tactic for India’s politicians.	贿赂多个种姓是印度政客屡试不爽的赢得选票策略。


If India is to eliminate the discrimination and indignities faced by members of its lower castes, it must transcend the politics of identity and focus on broader development goals and socioeconomic challenges.	印度要想消除低种姓人民所面临的歧视和蔑视，就必须超越身份政治，着眼于更广的发展目标和社会经济挑战。


This will be no easy feat – especially as Indians compete for scarce opportunities in an overpopulated land.	这绝不容易——特别是印度地少人多，机会稀缺，需要竞争。


So long as prejudice persists, politicians in India’s contentious democracy will exploit it.	只要偏见仍然存在，印度竞争性民主的政客就有利用之机。


January 30 marked the 68th anniversary of the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi, who fought not merely for independence, but also for a more just, equal, and moral India.	1月30日是甘地遇刺68周年纪念。 甘地不但为印度的独立而斗争，也为建设更加公正、公平和道德的印度而奋斗。


The country must see in the Vemula tragedy a reminder of the vital need to rededicate ourselves to Gandhi’s ideals, so that bright Dalit students are not driven to despair – or worse.	印度必须从维穆拉之死中认识到投身于甘地的理想的重要性，惟其如此，聪明的达利特学生才不会被推向绝望甚至更糟糕。


It may be a pious hope, but it is the very foundation of Indian nationhood.	这也许是一个伪善的希望，但它也是印度国民性的基石。


India’s Culture War Comes to Bollywood	印度文化战来到宝莱坞


NEW DELHI – Culture and history have become new battlegrounds in India.	新德里—文化和历史成为印度的新战场。


Debates over the Taj Mahal’s position as a symbol of multicultural India have yet to be settled, yet the nation is already being torn apart further by another cultural controversy – this time, over a film.	关于泰姬陵作为多元文化的印度的象征的争论远未结束，与此同时，印度又被另一场文化争议进一步撕裂——这次的对象是电影。


The film, “Padmavati,” tells the story of an eponymous Rajput queen believed to have died, together with 16,000 other women of the Rajput warrior caste, by self-immolation in 1301, in order to avoid being captured alive by the invading Delhi Sultan Alauddin Khilji.	影片《帕德玛瓦蒂》（Padmavati）讲述了一位著名的拉吉普特女王的故事，据说她在1301年与其他16,000名拉吉普特女战斗种姓成员宁可自焚也不被入侵的德里苏丹阿拉丁·希尔吉（Alauddin Khilji）所掳。


Despite not even having been released, “Padmavati” has already inspired countless front-page stories and debates on the evening news, hysterical threats of violence, and a ban in four states governed by India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.	影片尚未发行，《帕德玛瓦蒂》便占据了无数新闻媒体头条，还在晚间新闻档掀起了各种争论，遭到各种歇斯底里的暴力威胁，四个印度人民党执政的邦甚至禁止它上映。


The historical accuracy of Padmavati’s story is dubious: no contemporary account of Khilji’s attack on Chittorgarh, including by historians accompanying his forces, mentions the queen.	关于《帕德玛瓦蒂》的故事的历史真实性颇具争议：同时代关于希尔吉袭击奇陶尔加尔（Chittorgarh）的记载，包括希尔吉的随军史官的记载，都没有提到帕德玛瓦蒂女王。


Yet Padmavati has been a figure of legend since 1540, when the Sufi mystic poet Malik Muhammad Jayasi devoted his lyrical epic “Padmavat”to her story.	但自1540年苏菲（Sufi）神秘诗人马利克·穆罕默德·贾雅西（Malik Muhammad Jayasi）用抒情史诗《帕德玛瓦特》（Padmavat）吟唱她的故事以来，帕德玛瓦蒂一直是一个传奇人物。


It has been suggested that Jayasi did not intend his tale to be taken literally, and that his work, instead, represented the Persian mystical-poetic tradition of using romance to represent humanity’s search for the divine.	据说贾雅西不想让自己的故事写下来，相反，他的作品呈现了波斯神秘诗歌传统——用浪漫来展现人类封神的过程。


By this interpretation, the poem is an allegory for the union of mind and soul, under attack from external forces.	根据这一解读，这篇史诗实则是一个关于思想和灵魂在外部力量的袭击下实现统一的寓言。


Jayasi chose Khilji’s attack on Chittorgarh as a setting for his epic, because its name includes the word chit (consciousness).	贾雅西选择希尔吉袭击奇陶尔加尔的故事来作为史诗的设定，是因为奇陶尔加尔这个名字中包含了“奇陶”（意识）。


But literature, once published, acquires a life of its own.	但文学作品一旦流传开来，就有了自己的生命。


Jayasi’s tale was retold countless times, by Bengali bards, Rajasthani folk-tellers, and even the English Colonel Tod, who included Padmavati’s tale in his compilation Annals and Antiquities of Rajputana.	贾雅西的故事被无数人转述，有孟加拉吟游诗人，有拉贾斯坦说书人，甚至也包括英国托德（Tod）上校，他将帕德玛瓦蒂的故事收入了他的《拉吉普特编年史》（Annals and Antiquities of Rajputana）中。


Through those retellings, her self-immolation (jauhar) became a noble act of resistance against the lustful Muslim, making her an exemplar of unsullied Hindu womanhood.	通过这些转述，她的自焚（jauhar）成为抵抗贪财好色的穆斯林的英雄之举，她也成为清白无暇的印度教女德的榜样。


Over time, Padmavati was effectively deified.	随着时间的推移，帕德玛瓦蒂事实上已经成为一个神。


The reputed site of her suicide became a tourist attraction.	据说是她的牺牲之所的地点成为一个旅游景点。


The head of a Rajput organization, the Karni Sena, claimed to be her direct descendent.	拉吉普特组织Karni Sena首脑自称是她的直系后裔。


(When confronted with the view that she was fictional, he replied, “I am 37th in her direct line of descent.	（对于她是一个虚构人物的说法，他回应说，“我是她的第37代直系后人。


Am I a ghost?”)	所以我是个鬼咯？ ”）


With so much riding on Padmavati’s image as a symbol of female honor and purity, Sanjay Leela Bhansali, the Bollywood filmmaker who set out to make a film of her story, unwittingly became a target of historical passions.	帕德玛瓦蒂的形象已经成为女性荣誉和纯洁的象征，决定将她的故事搬上银幕的宝莱坞制片人桑杰伊·李拉·班萨利（Sanjay Leela Bhansali）也在无意中成为历史激情的对象。


The Karni Sena trashed the film set at Jaigarh Fort in Jaipur, and disrupted further shooting in a new (less “authentic”) location at Kohlapur, accusing Bhansali of filming a love scene between the Hindu queen and the Muslim invader.	Karni Sena组织砸毁了位于斋普尔斋格尔堡（Jaigarh Fort）的电影拍摄布景，并追到科拉普尔（Kohlapur）的新（ 更不“真实”）拍摄地干扰拍摄，指责班萨利加入印度教女王和穆斯林入侵者的感情线。


The Rajput community is also rumored to have delayed the release of the film on the grounds that it “distorted history,” though Bhansali has denied this.	据说拉吉普特社会以“扭曲历史”（班萨利否认这一点）为由推迟了影片的发布。


The film’s detractors, including the four BJP chief ministers who instituted the preemptive bans, did not even see the film before condemning it.	影片的批评者中包括了四位抢先发布禁演令的印度人民党首席部长，他们还没有看过影片就开始大肆批评。


That is how defensive some Hindus in India have become over the version of history to which they subscribe – even when, as in Padmavati’s case, that history may well be nothing more than a figment of collective imagination.	印度的一些印度教徒，对于他们所持的历史观的捍卫意识就是如此强大——即便在《帕德玛瓦蒂》的例子中，历史只不过是集体想象的一个捏造物而已。


No less an ardent secularist than India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, summed up the phenomenon seven decades ago: “Facts and fiction are so interwoven together as to be inseparable, and this amalgam becomes an imagined history, which may not tell us exactly what happened but does tell us something equally important — what people believed had taken place, what they thought their heroic ancestors were capable of, and what ideals inspired them.”	印度首任总理、坚定的世俗论者尼赫鲁在七十年前就对这一现象做出了总结：“事实和虚构彼此交织，不可分离，它们的混合形成了一种想象的历史，它也许不能告诉我们真正发生了什么，但确实能够告诉我们一些同样重要的东西——人们相信发生了什么，他们认为他们的英雄先人拥有怎样的能力，以及是什么理想激发了他们。


This “imagined history” – “a mixture of fact and fiction, or sometimes only fiction” – becomes “symbolically true.”	”这一“想象的历史”——“事实和虚构的混合，有时候只有虚构”——成为“象征性的真实”。


This explains, in a nutshell, the opposition to “Padmavati.”	这言简意赅地解释了对《帕德玛瓦蒂》的反对。


For some Hindus, the difference between historical fact and cultural myth does not matter; what is remembered and believed is as important as what is verifiable.	对一些印度教徒来说，历史事实和文化传说之间的区别不重要； 被记住和被相信的东西与被证实的东西一样重要。


And in today’s climate, where “taking offense” is the name of the game and “hurting the sentiments of a community” is the name of the crime, that perspective is particularly relevant.	而在当今的气候中，“冒犯”是游戏的名字，而“伤害了群众的感情”是罪行的名字，这让这个角度显得尤为重要。


The old Hindu boasts of expansive tolerance and acceptance of difference – the very tenets that underlie India’s remarkable diversity – are wearing thin these days.	旧印度教宣扬宽宏大量和接受不同——这也是印度令人瞩目的多样性的基础——如今，这些特征正在消失。


But there is precedent for this response.	但这样的反应是有先例的。


Indeed, Bhansali should have taken heed of the backlash against another film a decade ago.	事实上，班萨利应该注意到十年前对另一部影片的攻讦。


That time, hairdressers objected to the film “Billu Barber,” arguing (absurdly) that the term “barber” is an insult to their profession.	当时，发型师反对影片《比鲁理发师》（Billu Barber），（荒谬地）指出“理发师”一词侮辱了他们的职业。


So they threatened to protest the film everywhere it was shown – threats that forced the Bollywood star and producer to drop the second word, renaming the film simply “Billu.”	因此他们威胁要在所有上映地示威反对——宝莱坞明星和制片人只好删去了第二个词，将影片改名为《比鲁》（Billu）。


It may not seem to matter much what some lumpen elements think of a Bollywood film.	某些低层次思维如何看待一部宝莱坞电影也许显得并不重要。


But such responses reflect the same narrow-mindedness that led to the notorious “pulping” of Sanksrit scholar Wendy Doniger’s erudite books on Hinduism.	但这样的反应表现出的狭隘思维，与导致梵文学者温迪·唐尼格（Wendy Doniger）的印度教著作被“化为纸浆”的臭名昭著的运动如出一辙。


While it may seem alarmist to suggest that freedom of expression in India is in peril, the atmosphere of intimidation by inflamed mobs, to whom governments surrender all too willingly, is palpable.	这也许是一个警示，表明印度言论自由告急，而受到愤怒的暴徒威胁，而政府对此完全坐视不理的氛围，是可以清楚地感觉到的。


By permitting these intolerant bullies to get away with their lawless acts of intimidation, we are allowing them to do violence to something vital to India’s survival as a civilization.	这些偏隘的恶徒的非法恫吓威胁能够逍遥法外，这不啻允许他们对印度得以作为一个文明的存在的关键暴力相向。


A pluralist and democratic India must, by definition, tolerate diverse expressions of its many identities.	顾名思义，一个多元化的民主的印度必须能够容忍对其众多身份的多元化的表达。


To allow self-appointed arbiters of Indian culture to impose their hypocrisy and double standards on the rest of us is to permit them to define Indianness down until it ceases to be Indian.	让自封的印度文化裁判肆意向我们其他人施加歇斯底里的双重标准，不啻放任他们将印度性（Indianness）逐出印度人的身体。


India’s Lost Fisherfolk	印度的失踪渔民


NEW DELHI – Last month, a devastating cyclone swept the southern tip of India, causing immense damage to parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Lakshadweep.	新德里——上个月，一场极具破坏力的飓风席卷了印度最南端，给喀拉拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦和拉克沙群岛造成了严重的损失。


Most victims of the oddly named Cyclone Ockhi were fishermen from the districts of Thiruvananthapuram (in Kerala) and Kanyakumari (in Tamil Nadu) who, owing to the lack of a timely cyclone alert, had ventured out to sea, unaware of the danger.	有着奇怪名字的飓风奥基其绝大多数受害者是来自喀拉拉邦特里凡得琅和泰米尔纳德邦坎亚库玛瑞（Kanyakumari）地区的渔民，因为没有及时得到飓风警报，他们在并未意识到危险的情况下出海捕鱼。


Their tragedy highlights the extreme vulnerability of India’s poor coastal communities to the vagaries of nature.	他们的悲剧凸显了这样一个现实：印度沿海地区的穷人极易受到变幻莫测的大自然的影响。


So far, Ockhi is known to have taken 245 lives, with 661 still missing, many of whom were lost at sea and are unlikely ever to be found.	迄今为止，奥基已经夺走了245条生命，并造成661人失踪，其中不少失踪在茫茫海上的渔民已不太可能找到下落。


Moreover, nearly 3,500 homes were damaged in Kerala alone, with 221 completely destroyed.	此外，仅喀拉拉邦一地就有近3，500座房屋遭到破坏，其中被彻底摧毁的就有221座。


The storm was so powerful that its winds even shook parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat.	这场严重的飓风甚至还波及了马哈拉施特拉邦和古吉拉特邦的部分地区。


For me, Ockhi was no distant headline.	对我而言，奥基绝不仅仅是遥不可及的新闻头条。


As the Member of Parliament representing Thiruvananthapuram, I witnessed firsthand the disaster and its terrible toll on some of India’s poorest and most marginalized people.	身为特里凡得琅议会议员，我亲眼目睹了这场灾难及其带给印度某些最贫困最边缘化民众的可怕后果。


I have visited the homes of the bereaved, and lit incense sticks and candles at makeshift shrines.	我拜访了死者的家人，并在临时灵堂上点燃香烛。


As I mourned with these beleaguered communities, trying to share their pain and grief, I vowed to do all I can to secure help for them.	当我和这些被困民众共同哀悼，试着分担他们的痛苦和悲伤时，我发誓尽一切可能为他们提供帮助。


So far, the national and state governments have focused largely – and quite appropriately – on providing immediate relief to the affected families.	迄今为止，国家和地方政府已经在很大程度上——而且这样的对策十分恰当——将重点放在向受影响的家庭提供紧急援助。


But, to protect India’s coastal communities, policymakers must urgently undertake a comprehensive review of the reasons why the cyclone was so devastating, and how the impact of a future disaster could be mitigated.	但要想保护印度沿海居民，决策者就必须对飓风破坏力如此严重的原因立即展开全面调查，并研究怎样才能减轻未来灾害的影响。


No cyclone alert was issued by the India Meteorological Department until Ockhi had already struck, and the initial rescue efforts were grossly inadequate to the scale of the challenge.	奥基袭击前印度气象部门均未能发出飓风警报，而最初的救援力量又严重不足，根本无法匹配这场灾难的规模。


By the time the Coast Guard and the Indian Navy had brought enough ships and planes to the affected area, a full 24 hours had passed since Ockhi capsized numerous fishing boats.	等到海岸警卫队和印度海军将足够的船只和飞机调往受灾地区，距离奥基掀翻大量渔船已经过去整整24小时了。


It was too late to rescue those who had been clinging to the wreckage.	已经来不及挽救那些一直抱着残骸的幸存者。


Official search and rescue efforts saved only a handful of lives.	官方搜救所挽救的人数并不多。


Meanwhile, fisherfolk – that is, the friends and relatives of those who had ventured out to the wrong place at the wrong time – clamored to join those efforts.	此外，渔民——也就是在错误的时间和地点冒险出海者的亲属和朋友——大声要求加入救援工作。


After all, they knew where their colleagues and loved ones were likely to be.	毕竟，他们最清楚自己的同事和爱人可能出现在哪里。


When they were finally allowed on board the rescue vessels, they guided officials to areas where floating bodies had been spotted.	当他们最终得到允许登上救援船只时，他们引领着官员来到发现浮尸的海域。


But many of those bodies were not picked up, because the naval ships had no facilities to accommodate corpses, and the defense ministry was still “in the process of procuring” mobile mortuaries.	但许多浮尸并没有得到打捞，因为海军舰艇并没有安装能容纳尸体的设备，而国防部的移动停尸房则“仍然在采购”。


The fisherfolk are not alone in criticizing the ineffectiveness of the rescue efforts.	批评救援工作低效的并非只有渔民。


India needs a detailed official inquiry into the various elements of disaster prediction, management, and relief, guided by the experience of Ockhi.	印度需要在抗击飓风奥基积累的宝贵经验的指导下对灾害预测、管理和救援工作的各方面要素进行细致的官方调查。


Would better institutional arrangements, such as closer cooperation with international typhoon monitoring bodies, have ensured a timely forecast?	更好的体制安排，例如与国际台风监测机构加强合作，能否确保及时的预报？


How can relief operations and overall emergency management be improved?	如何改善救援行动和整体的应急管理？


Should search-and-rescue aircraft and vessels be stationed in the vicinity?	是否应在附近驻扎搜救的船只和飞机？


One way to strengthen India’s disaster-response capabilities would be to create the marine equivalent of our Territorial Army, training selected fisherfolk in how to carry out search-and-rescue operations.	强化印度救灾能力的一种方法是创建与本土陆军相对等的海军陆战队，训练经过挑选的渔民展开搜救行动。


Such training, together with students’ affinity for their fellow fishermen and their expertise in braving turbulent seas, would make for a highly effective reserve unit, to be deployed when disaster strikes.	这样的训练，加之学员们与渔民之间的亲密关系和他们在汹涌大海上冒险捕鱼所积累的专业经验，将会成就一支能在灾难发生时立即加以部署的高效的后备部队。


Another issue that risks being overlooked by the focus on urgent and immediate financial relief is coastal communities’ long-term economic needs.	关注沿海民众迫切需要的紧急财政援助有可能导致忽视他们的长期经济需求。


To be sure, immediate relief is vital: Ockhi has completely shut down everyday activities in some coastal areas, causing severe economic (not to mention emotional) distress for the region’s poor fishing communities.	可以肯定，紧急救援至关重要：奥基已经造成某些沿海地区日常活动完全陷入瘫痪，并为当地贫困渔民造成了严重的经济（更不用说情绪）困扰。


But perhaps it is time to consider whether it is fair to condemn these communities to long-term dependence on fishing.	但思考迫使这些群众长期依赖捕鱼为生是否公平或许正是时候。


Just as India’s agriculture cannot sustain all the farmers trying to live off the land, our over-fished seas cannot possibly sustain all of our fishermen.	就像印度农业无法维持所有以土地为生的农民的生计一样，我们经历了过度捕捞的海洋也不可能维持所有渔民的生活。


With their traditional fishing grounds unable to deliver a decent living, they risk their lives to venture farther and farther from shore.	由于依靠传统渔场无法维持体面的生计，渔民们被迫冒着生命危险深入到远海当中。


Some of my constituents have been arrested as far afield as the British Indian Ocean territory of Diego Garcia, which they reached in their hunt for unexploited fishing grounds.	我的某些选民曾远在英属印度洋迭戈·加西亚岛（Diego Garcia）领地被捕，他们抵达那里是为了寻找尚未开发的渔场。


As it stands, members of India’s fishing communities do not have any alternative skills that would enable them to pursue other occupations.	目前，印度渔民并不具备其他任何技能可以从事其他职业。


Offering them and their children skills development and vocational training courses in other fields would transform their lives for the better.	为渔民及其子女提供其他领域的技能发展和职业培训很有可能能够改善他们的生活。


Ockhi has starkly demonstrated that all is not well for India’s fisherfolk.	飓风奥基已经充分暴露了印度渔民所处的窘境。


To prevent the next natural disaster from causing so much damage and inflicting so much pain, we must take action now to improve prediction and response, and strengthen the resilience of our most vulnerable citizens.	为防止下一场自然灾害造成如此巨大的破坏和痛苦，我们必须立即采取行动改善灾害预测和应急反应，并强化我们最弱势民众的适应性。


Why India Should Scrap Parliamentary Democracy	为什么印度应当废除议会民主制？


NEW DELHI – India’s parliamentary system, inherited from the British, is rife with ineffiencies.	新德里——从英国继承的印度议会制充斥着低效率。


By the logic of Westminster, you elect a legislature to form the executive, and when the executive does not command a secure majority in the legislative assembly, the government falls, triggering fresh elections.	按照威斯敏斯特的逻辑，人们选择立法机关组成行政机构，当行政机构无法在立法议会中获得绝对多数时，政府就此垮台，并引发新的选举。


The result is a vote in some or other of India’s 29 state assemblies every six months or so, each one acting as a sort of referendum on the government in New Delhi.	结果导致印度29个州议会每六个月就要举行投票，每一次投票在某种意义上都是就新德里政府举行的全民公决。


In short, India’s freewheeling multi-party democracy has become one of perennial plebiscite.	简言之，印度随心所欲的多党派民主制已经成为常年投票的代名词。


India’s latest round of elections included five state assemblies.	印度最近一轮选举包括五个州的议会。


Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prevailed in Uttar Pradesh – India’s largest state, which is home to more than 200 million people and has produced seven of 15 prime ministers – and in neighboring Uttarakhand.	总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的执政印度人民党（BJP）在印度最大的州北方邦胜出，那里拥有超过2亿人口，而且十五位总理中有七位都从那里产生——印度人民党还在相邻的北安恰尔邦获胜。


The main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, triumphed in the northwestern state of Punjab and won pluralities in Goa and Manipur (though the BJP formed governments in the latter two states anyway, by assembling coalitions to ensure legislative majorities).	而主要反对党印度国大党则赢得了印度西北部的旁遮普邦，并在果阿和曼尼普尔赢得了多数表决（虽然印度人民党通过结成联盟确保占据立法多数而最终在后面提到的两个州实现了执政）。


It looks like a mixed result.	结果看起来喜忧参半。


But India’s national politics has long been skewed toward the Hindi-speaking northern heartland, and Uttar Pradesh has far more voters than the other four states combined.	但印度的国家政治长期偏向于说北印度语的北部核心地带，而北方邦选民人数远高于其他四个邦的总和。


So the results have been hailed as a victory for the BJP, affirming Modi’s popularity and vindicating his leadership – including of the campaign itself.	因此，选举结果被誉为印度人民党的胜利，这再次肯定了莫迪的人气并维护其领导地位——包括对竞选活动本身。


Indeed, Modi personally commanded the campaign in Uttar Pradesh, whose fabled city of Varanasi he represents in parliament.	事实上，莫迪亲自指挥了北方邦的竞选活动，并在议会代表瓦拉纳西这座传说中的城市。


With his attendance at multiple political events and addresses to innumerable campaign rallies, Modi staked his government’s image – and, some would say, his own reputation as prime minister – on the election.	因为出席多项政治活动并在无数竞选集会上讲话，莫迪将他的政府形象——有些人甚至可能会说他自己作为总理的声誉——和选举结果绑在了一起。


The benefits extend beyond status.	他借此获得了超越现状的收益。


Victory in Uttar Pradesh was critical to enable Modi to take control of India’s Upper House, whose members are elected by state legislative assemblies.	北方邦的获胜对莫迪控制印度上议院至关重要，因为上议院议员是由州立法议会选举产生。


The latest election results also assure him the legislative numbers he needs to get his own candidates elected as India’s President in July and Vice-President in August.	最新选举结果也确保了让他自己的候选人于7月当选印度总统和8月当选副总统所需的立法票数。


But at what cost?	但付出的代价是什么？


One clear downside of India’s perennial electioneering is that prime ministers must frequently leave aside their role as leader of the country to act as leader of their party.	印度常年竞选的一个明显缺陷是总理必须频繁放下作为国家领导人的身份而去扮演党派领导者。


Modi is a take-no-prisoners campaigner, who revels in punchy invective and freely launches partisan attacks at opponents (including me).	莫迪在竞选活动中不择手段，他陶醉于咄咄逼人的谩骂和随心所欲地对对手（包括我本人在内）发动党派攻击。


There’s nothing statesmanlike about it, and yet it will happen again soon, with a fresh round of elections, including in Modi’s home state of Gujarat, due before the end of the year.	这根本就不像政治家应有的素质，但却很快又将在年底前即将举行的新一轮选举活动中（包括莫迪的家乡古吉拉特邦在内）成为现实。


If there ever were need for yet another clinching argument for a presidential system in India, it is the spectacle of the head of government abandoning the responsibilities of that office every few months to go on the stump for their party.	如果说有什么证据证明印度有必要实行总统制，那就是政府首脑每隔几个月就必须放弃职务责任为所在党派站脚助威的奇观。


The parliamentary system has not merely outlived any good it could do India; it was never well suited to Indian conditions.	议会制不仅无法再对印度产生任何好处； 甚至从来就没有适合过印度的条件。


In fact, it is responsible for many of our principal political ills.	事实上，议会制造成了我们很多主要的政治弊端。


Like the American revolutionaries two centuries ago, Indian nationalists fought for “the rights of Englishmen,” which they thought the replication of the Houses of Parliament would epitomize and guarantee.	就像两百年前的美国革命者一样，印度民族主义者主要为“英国人的权利”而战，他们相信复制议会两院制可以体现并确保这一点。


When former British Prime Minister Clement Attlee, as a member of a British constitutional commission, suggested the United States’ presidential system as a model for India, the country’s leaders “rejected it with great emphasis.”	当前英国首相克莱门特·阿特尔特以英国宪法委员会委员的身份建议印度采用美国的总统制度时，遭到了该国领导人“毫不犹豫的拒绝。


Attlee recalled, “I had the feeling that they thought I was offering them margarine instead of butter.”	”阿特尔特回忆，“我当时觉得他们认为我提供的不是黄油，而且代替黄油的人造假货。 ”


But perhaps margarine might have suited India’s vegetarian tastes better.	但人造奶油可能更适合印度的素食口味。


Indeed, while a parliamentary system can work in a small, largely homogenous country, in India’s large, diverse, and fractious polity, it has been messy, to say the least.	事实上，虽然议会制可以在大体同质化的小国很好地发挥作用，但针对印度这样一个大型、多样且难以驾驭的政体，议会制至少也是乱七八糟的。


The system’s apologists point out that it has kept India together and given every citizen a stake in the country’s political destiny.	这套体系的辩护者指出是它把印度融合在一起并赋予每位公民对国家政治命运的发言权。


But any form of genuine democracy would do that.	但任何形式的真正意义上的民主都能够做到这一点。


The question is which form of democracy would also ensure effective performance, without allowing the government to be constantly distracted by petty politics.	问题在于哪种形式的民主更能确保有效业绩，而避免让政府不断陷入到琐碎的政治事务中。


Perhaps the answer lies in the US or Latin American model, with a directly elected chief executive – a president, at the national level, and a governor, at the state level – serving a fixed term as both head of state and head of government.	也许答案在于美国或拉美式制度，由直接选举产生的首席执行官——总统负责国家级事务，并由州长负责州级事务——在固定任期内履行国家元首和政府首脑的双重职责。


A directly elected chief executive would not be vulnerable to the shifting sands of legislative support.	直接选举的行政长官不会受到立法支持不断变幻的影响。


They could appoint a cabinet of talented officials, confident in the stability of their tenure.	他们可以任命有才华的官员内阁，并对任期的稳定充满信心。


Above all, they could devote their energies to governance, rather than just to politics.	最重要的是，他们可以将精力全部投入执政，而不是耗散在政治扯皮之中。


The relentless election cycle would come to an end.	应当终结无穷无尽的选举循环。


In such a system, citizens would actually be voting for the individual they want in charge.	在这样一种体系下，民众实际将票投给他们希望执政的人。


The president could therefore claim to speak for a majority of Indians, rather than a majority of members of parliament.	总统于是可以声称代表印度大多数人的意见，而不仅是多数议员意见的反映。


At the end of a fixed period of time – say, five years, as India’s MPs are currently accorded – the public would be able to judge their leader’s success at improving citizens’ lives, rather than at keeping a government in office.	在固定任期结束后——比如印度国会议员目前的任期是5年——民众可以对领导人改善民众生活的效果做出评判，而不是如何保持政府执政。


Of course, in a sense, democracy is an end in itself.	当然，从某种意义上讲，民主本身就是目的。


It is vital for India’s survival.	它关系到印度能否生存。


Pluralism is a fundamental element of who we are, and we are proud of it.	多元主义是我们引以为豪的基本要素。


But few Indians are proud of the kind of politics our democracy has inflicted upon us.	但没有几个印度人对我们现有体系所施加的政治纷扰感到自豪。


In order to confront the challenges and meet the needs of one-sixth of the world’s population, India’s leaders must operate within a democracy that enables, rather than hampers, governance.	为应对挑战并满足世界1/6人口的需求，印度领导人必须建立能够促进、而非阻碍执政的民主制度。


Only then can they deliver progress to the people they represent.	只有这样他们才能向所代表的民众提供进步。


A presidential system would do just that.	总统制能完成这项任务。


It would enable leaders to focus on representing the people, instead of on staying in power.	它能让领导人专心代表民众，而不是把精力耗费在保住权力。


With a more expansive and predictable election cycle, India’s leaders would be able to move beyond the unpleasant business of political contention, and settle down to governance.	有了更加广泛和可预测的选举循环，印度领导人就可以忘掉政治竞争的不快，专心致志地改进执政举措。


In that shift in focus lies a presidential system’s ultimate vindication.	这种焦点的转变就是总统制最好的证明。


The Last Bastion of a Profitable Press	盈利媒体的最后堡垒


NEW DELHI – Around the world, newspapers seem to be facing imminent extinction, as a mass exodus to the Internet causes their circulation to slump and their advertising revenue to collapse.	新德里—放眼全球，报纸似乎马上就要灭绝了，向互联网的大迁徙导致报纸发行量崩溃，广告收入暴跌。


But not in India.	但印度不是这样。


In the West, young people have largely dispensed with the home-delivered physical morning newspaper, and instead catch up on the news whenever they choose, using tablets, laptops, or mobile phones.	在西方，年轻人基本上已经告别了早晨送上门来的实体报纸，转而随时随地打开平板、笔记本和手机阅读新闻。


As advertising revenue has been vacuumed up by the Internet giants Facebook and Google, newspaper profits have plunged.	广告收入被Facebook和谷歌等互联网巨头裹挟而去，报纸利润一蹶不振。


The industry has faced many bankruptcies in recent years, with those still operating often having laid off large numbers of staff, especially in their foreign bureaus.	近几年来，新闻业破产事件频发，仍在坚持营业的报纸也大量裁员，尤其是驻外办事处。


In the United States, the number of full-time journalists has dropped by 20% since 2001.	在美国，全职记者人数自2001年减少了20%。


Even several grand titles have either closed down or publish only online.	甚至一些大名鼎鼎的媒体，也关门大吉或者全部转为线上发行。


Cyberspace is, after all, where the eyeballs are.	毕竟，网络空间才是人们关注的焦点。


Yet, while some well-known newspapers – such as the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the United Kingdom-based Guardian – have developed a robust Internet presence themselves, it is not enough.	但是，尽管一些久负盛名的报纸——如《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》和英国的《卫报》——的网络版表现出色，并不足以扭转颓势。


In the Guardian’s case, the site receives an impressive 38 million unique visitors per day, compared to a print circulation of just 200,000 copies.	以《卫报》为例，其网站每天都有高达3,800万的独立访问人数，而其纸质版发行量只有200,000份。


But those online visitors read for free, leaving the Guardian hemorrhaging money.	但这些网络访问者只看免费内容，意味着《卫报》还得为此贴钱。


It doesn’t help that web advertising revenues – which, for most newspapers, account for only 10-15% of total revenues – can’t compete with the print-ad revenues of the past.	网络广告收入——对大部分报纸来说只占总收入的10—15%——无法与过去的印刷广告收入相提并论。


All of this has generated a distinct sense of uncertainty at journalism schools.	所有这些让新闻学院感到了明显的不确定性。


Last year, for the third year in a row, the CareerCast survey identified “newspaper reporter” as the worst career a young person could pursue in the US.	去年，CareerCast调查连续第三年将“报纸记者”列为美国年轻人追求的最差职业。


(Full, and somewhat rueful, disclosure: one of my sons is a journalist at the Washington Post.)	（带着一丝悲哀的充分披露：我有一个儿子在《华盛顿邮报》当记者。 ）


Yet, in India, the printed word on pulped trees remains an amazingly healthy industry.	但在印度，行将就木的报职业仍然生机勃发。


India now has the world’s largest number of paid newspapers, and the number continues to grow, from 5,767 in 2013 to 7,871 in 2015.	如今，印度拥有全世界数量最多的付费报纸，并且还在继续增长，2013年为5,767家，2015年已有7,871家。


Over those same two years, 50 newspapers ceased publication in the US, which has less than a quarter of India’s print papers.	同一时期，美国有50家报纸停止发行，而美国纸媒总数还不到印度的四分之一。


Moreover, figures for newspaper readership released by the Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC) this month show that, over the last decade, newspaper circulation has grown significantly in India, from 39.1 million copies in 2006 to 62.8 million in 2016 – a 60% increase, for which there is no parallel in the world.	此外，发行审计局（Audit Bureau of Circulation，ABC）本月发布的报纸阅读量数据表明，在过去十年中，印度报纸发行量大幅增长，从2006年的3,910万份增加到2016年的6,280万份，增幅高达60%，在全世界绝无仅有。


Comparable data for the most recent year available, 2015, show that while newspaper circulation grew by 12% in India, it fell in almost every other major media market: by 12% in the UK, 7% in the US, and 3% in Germany and France.	最新的可比年度数据为2015年，印度报纸发行量增加12%，而几乎其他所有主要媒体市场的报纸发行量都出现了下降：英国下降了12%，美国下降了7%，德国和法国下降了3%。


The robustness of India’s print-newspaper industry cannot be attributed to lack of growth in Internet access: in the last decade, the share of the population with Internet access rose from less than 10% to some 30%.	印度纸媒的坚挺无法归因于互联网接入增长不力：在过去十年中，印度互联网普及率从不到10%上升到30%。


So what does explain India’s thriving newspaper market?	那么，怎么解释印度报纸市场的兴旺发达？


One basic factor is India’s rising literacy rate, which has climbed to 79%, owing largely to improvement in the “cow belt” of the northern states – the Hindi-speaking heartland.	一个基本因素是印度识字率上升，目前已经达到79%，主要是受北方“奶牛带”诸邦——印地语核心地带的改善的推动。


In the 1960s, when Hindi speakers were overwhelmingly less literate than those who read in English, Malayalam, and Bengali, Hindi newspapers had low circulations.	20世纪60年代，操印地语的印度人比用英语、马拉雅拉姆语和孟加拉语阅读的印度人文化程度显著更低，印地语报纸发行量很小。


Today, they are on top: for the second decade in a row, Hindi newspapers experienced the fastest growth, with average circulation soaring at a compounded annual growth rate of 8.78% since 2006.	如今，印地语报纸发行量已经名列前茅：连续两个十年增长最快，2006年以来发行量平均复合年增长率达到了8. 78%。


Economic development has also helped India’s newspaper industry.	经济发展也助了印度报纸业一臂之力。


Many newly affluent Indians get their national and international news from television.	许多生活刚刚富裕起来的印度人从电视上收看国内和国际新闻。


But events close to home are best covered in the local dailies.	但身边的本地事件还是当地日报报道最详细。


And, indeed, newspapers remain the best way to reach this segment of Indian society.	而事实上，报纸仍然是接触印度社会的这一细分的最佳方式。


To be sure, most leading news outlets in India have been developing their digital offerings.	诚然，印度的主要新闻机构一直在开发数字版。


They have created mobile apps to download the news from their sites, and they increasingly treat their readers to short takes of digestible news briefs tailored to the small screens of hand-held devices.	它们推出移动应用从官方网站下载新闻，越来越多地裁减言简意赅的新闻简报以适应小屏手持设备。


But, for many serious readers, such options are no substitute for the look and feel of a printed newspaper article.	但对许多严肃读者来说，这样的选择无法代替阅览和感受白纸黑字的报纸文章。


Printed newspapers offer the added advantage of reliability, in a country where Internet access cannot be guaranteed all the time, owing to still-patchy electricity supplies, which cause frequent blackouts even in the capital.	由于电力波动较大，印度还无法保证全天候不间断的互联网接入，甚至连首都也时不时会陷入一片黑暗，因此纸媒能提供更多的可靠性优势。


News junkies still need a tangible paper that can be read in the sunlight without a fully charged battery.	新闻“瘾君子”仍然需要不需要给电池充电就能在阳光下阅读的实体报纸。


Given all of this, it may not be quite so surprising that advertisers in India have remained loyal to the appeal of newspaper ink over the flickering cursor.	出于所有这些原因，印度广告商仍然更多地被报纸的油墨而不是闪烁的光标所吸引，这也许并不那么令人奇怪。


In sharp contrast with the Western experience, advertising remains the Indian newspaper industry’s main source of revenue.	与西方的经验截然相反，广告仍然是印度报职业的主要收入源。


Of course, this trend may not last forever.	当然，这一趋势可能无法永远持续下去。


But, for now, India’s newspapers are in no danger of becoming financially unviable.	但在目前，印度报纸财务生存无虞。


While growth in digital advertising expenditure is surging, at an annual rate of nearly 30%, it still comprises just 8% of India’s total ad spending.	尽管数字广告支出增长迅猛，每年接近30%，但仍然只占印度广告总支出的8%。


Meanwhile, TV and print advertising revenue are also growing, at 8% and 4.5%, respectively.	与此同时，电视和纸媒广告收入也在增长，增长率分别达到了8%和4. 5%。


The differential, ABC predicts, will level out by 2021, with advertising revenues for print and digital media reaching parity.	ABC预测，其中的差距将在2021年消失，纸媒和数字媒体的广告收入将会等量齐观。


But even then, India’s print media will enjoy a healthy stream of advertising revenue that their Western counterparts can only dream about.	但即使到那时，印度纸媒仍然能够收获它们的西方同道只能在梦里得到的广告收入。


So India’s print media story continues to be a happy one.	因此，印度的纸媒仍将是一个喜剧。


And a robustly growing India will remain paradise for newspaper mavens for a while yet.	而增长强劲的印度将在一段时间里继续成为报纸从业者的天堂。


There are still 280 million people yet to become literate.	印度还有2. 8亿人等待扫盲。


And when they get there, they will want their own newspapers, too.	而当他们能够认识字的时候，也会需要属于他们的报纸。


India’s Deadly Cities	印度致命的城市


SINGAPORE – China and India are driving Asia’s population and urbanization trends.	新加坡——中国和印度正在推动亚洲人口和城市化进程。


According to a 2010 McKinsey study, the two countries are expected to account for 62% of the growth in the continent’s urban population between 2005 and 2025, and a staggering 40% of such growth worldwide.	2010年麦肯锡的一项研究显示2005至2025年两国预计在亚洲城市人口增长中将占62%，并在全球人口增长中占到令人吃惊的40%的份额。


Statistics like these underscore the urgency of urban planning and growth management.	像这样的统计数据凸显了城市规划和增长管理的紧迫性。


But it is equally important to acknowledge the critical differences between the two countries.	但承认两国间的关键差异同样重要。


Variations in their urban growth paths, as well as differences in their approaches to environmental policy, are likely to make India’s population challenges far more difficult to address.	中印两国城市发展道路和环境政策差异很有可能进一步加大印度国内人口问题的解决难度。


China may be home to 20% of humanity, but for more than two decades its fertility rate has been lower than the “replacement” level (that required to maintain the current population), with population growth expected to turn negative within the next two decades.	中国可能占世界总人口的20%，但二十多年来其生育率一直低于“更替”（即维持目前人口所要达到的）水平，而且今后二十年内预计人口增长将转为负数。


As a result, India, where population growth is projected to remain positive for the foreseeable future, is poised to become the world’s most populous country.	因此在可以预见的未来将维持人口正增长的印度注定将成为世界上人口最多的国家。


Most projections have India’s population exceeding that of China by 2022.	绝大多数预测认为印度人口将在2022年超过中国。


Indeed, over the next 35 years, India is expected to add more than 400 million urban residents (more than the entire population of the United States), while China will add just 292 million.	事实上，未来35年，印度预计将增加4亿多城市居民（增加的居民人数超过美国人口总和），而中国将只增加2. 92亿。


For the first time, the majority of Indians will be living in cities – a significant transformation for a country whose rural population currently constitutes two-thirds of the total.	印度大部分人口将首次在城市中生活——这对目前农村人口占总人口三分之二的印度不啻为一次重要的转型。


India’s two largest urban centers – Delhi and Mumbai – are often described as emerging global megacities.	印度两个最大的城市中心——德里和孟买——经常被称之为新兴的全球特大城市。


Delhi is already the world’s second most populous city, and it is expected to close the gap with Tokyo, the world’s largest city, almost entirely by 2030.	德里已经是世界人口数量排名第二的城市，并且预计将在2030年赶上目前的全球最大城市东京。


When population growth on this scale is combined with rapid urbanization, the associated environmental and social impacts become a formidable policy challenge.	当如此规模的人口增长遭遇快速城市化，控制由此带来的环境和社会影响就会成为一项艰巨的政策任务。


In 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) determined that Delhi has the world’s worst air quality (based on concentration of fine particulate matter), with Indian cities occupying the top four spots and 13 of the top 18.	2014年，世界卫生组织（WHO）认定（按照悬浮颗粒物的浓度计算），德里拥有全世界最糟糕的空气质量，印度城市包揽了全球空气质量最差城市的前四位和18个最差城市中的13个份额。


China has been frequently – and often justifiably – criticized for poor environmental policies.	中国往往（并且这种情况也无可厚非）因为恶劣的环境政策而备受指责。


But, according to McKinsey, China has been more proactive than India in planning for rapid urbanization, demonstrating that it has the capacity and the resources to address environmental challenges.	但麦肯锡调查显示中国比印度更主动地针对快速城市化进行规划，显示其具备应对环境挑战的资源和能力。


In new cities across the country, urban plans already take into account such concerns, with riparian greenways and urban nature reserves complementing infrastructure projects that have environmental benefits (for example, extensive mass-transit networks).	中国各地新建城市的城市规划已充分考虑了这种担忧，河岸林荫道与城市自然保护区对能够产生环境效益的基础设施项目（如大规模公共交通网络）进行补充。


By contrast, India’s cities have grown haphazardly, with little consideration of the functioning of urban systems as a whole.	相比之下，印度的城市发展比较随意，很少考虑到城市系统的整体运作。


The country’s urban areas often lack adequate regional transport networks, for example.	比方说，该国城市地区往往欠缺充足的区域交通网络。


Large swaths of informal settlements have emerged in vacant inner-city districts and suburban peripheries, compromising environmental conditions, public health, and personal safety.	大片的非正式定居点出现在空置的市中心和外围郊区，对环境、公共卫生和人身安全造成影响。


Land-use patterns interweave industrial and residential districts, exposing vulnerable (and growing) populations to a host of negative spillover effects.	土地利用方式将工业区和住宅区交织在一起，导致脆弱（且不断增长的）人口面临一系列负面溢出效应的威胁。


The differences between urban development in China and India are clear not only in the substance of policy, but also in the two countries’ governance styles.	中印两国城市发展的差异不仅体现在政治实质，也反映在两国的治理作风。


China’s leaders are placing heavy emphasis on pollution control.	中国领导人非常重视污染控制。


In advance of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, the authorities are pushing for a regionally integrated plan to balance economic growth with environmental management, including the greening of manufacturing processes and the elimination of “excess capacity” in energy production.	政府在2022年北京冬奥会召开前大力推动平衡经济增长与环境管理的区域一体化计划，其中包括生产过程的“绿化”和消除能源生产领域的“过剩产能”。


Such multi-jurisdictional efforts require strong coordination and a stable vision, which China’s hierarchal governance system provides.	这样的跨司法辖区工作需要稳定的目标及强有力的协调能力，而中国的层级式管理体系恰恰能够提供上述元素。


In India, by contrast, the central government has no role in managing air pollution, which is a state-level responsibility.	相反，印度中央政府在本应由国家负责的空气污染治理方面起不到任何作用。


Whatever Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration decides to do, state governments under the control of different parties are likely to oppose his policies, or fail to devote adequate attention and resources to them.	无论总理纳伦德拉·莫迪政府作何决定，由不同党派控制的地方政府都有可能反对他的政策，或对中央政府的政策未能给予充分重视和大力实行。


According to the WHO, of the 4.3 million annual deaths resulting from “indoor air pollution” (burning of solid fuels), nearly one-third (1.3 million) occur in India.	据世卫组织统计，全世界每年死于“室内空气污染”（燃烧固体燃料）的430万人中，近三分之一（即130万人）来自印度。


A recent report argues that more stringent environmental regulation would add 3.2 years to Indians’ life expectancy.	最近一份报告认为严格环境管制将使印度的人均寿命延长3. 2年之多。


This tangible welfare gain would also include economic benefits.	上述实实在在的效益当中也包括经济效益。


The resulting addition of more than two billion “life years” represents a significant amount of human productivity, creativity, and uncompensated contributions to families and society.	由此带来的超过20亿年的额外“寿命”会使民众生产力、创造力和对家庭及社会的无偿贡献显著提高。


By failing to address the impacts of rapid urbanization adequately, India is leaving these benefits unclaimed.	如果解决不了快速城市化带来的挑战，印度就无法真正享受到上述好处。


A good-faith, well-publicized official declaration would signal to India’s citizens and the world that the country intends to save its growing population from the life-shortening effects of urban environmental degradation.	发布善意、公开的官方声明将向印度民众和全世界表态该国愿意保护民众免遭城市环境退化带来的减寿威胁。


It would also provide a roadmap for improving the quality of life in India’s cities, benefiting local residents both directly and indirectly (by inducing foreign investment).	它还可以逐步改善城市的生活水准，（通过引导外国投资）直接或间接地惠及印度的当地民众。


India’s competitive advantages in the new global economy are well known.	印度在新全球经济中的竞争优势不言自明。


But transformative social progress will be possible only if the country launches a more comprehensive effort to address pathologies long brushed off as the unavoidable collateral damage of economic growth.	但只有采取全面措施对所谓经济发展不可避免的附带损失进行遏制，才有可能真正实现转型过程中的社会进步。


India Stops Turning the Other Cheek	印度不再放弃抵抗


NEW DELHI – For two and a half decades, Pakistan has pursued a policy of inflicting on India “death by a thousand cuts” – bleeding the country through repeated terrorist attacks, rather than attempting an open military confrontation which it cannot win against India’s superior conventional forces.	新德里——25年来，巴基斯坦奉行的政策是用“千刀万剐的方式”杀死印度——即通过反复的恐怖主义袭击让这个国家流血，而不是试图进行公开的军事对抗，因为在印度强大的常规军队面前这种方法几乎没有可能获胜。


The logic is that India’s response to this tactic would always be tempered by its desire not to derail its ambitious economic development plans, as well as the Indian government’s unwillingness to face the risk of a nuclear war.	背后的逻辑是印度对这一策略的对策总是受制于不愿破坏其雄心勃勃的经济发展计划，以及印度政府不愿面对可能的核战争。


But this predictable and repetitive pattern of India-Pakistan relations was suddenly disrupted on September 29, when India’s Director-General of Military Operations (DGMO), Lieutenant-General Ranbir Singh, announced that Indian commandos had conducted “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, the de facto international border between the two countries.	但印度和巴基斯坦重复和可以预测的关系9月29日那天被突然打破，当前印度军事行动总干事（DGMO）拉恩比尔·辛格中将宣布印度突击队跨过两国间事实上的国际边境克什米尔控制线（LoC）进行了“外科手术式的打击”。


The DGMO stated that the strikes, in the early hours of that morning, had destroyed terrorist “launch pads” and eliminated significant numbers of militants poised to cross over for attacks on the Indian side, as well as some who were protecting them (presumably a reference to Pakistani soldiers).	印度军事行动总干事指出当天凌晨的袭击成功摧毁了恐怖分子的“发射架”并消灭了大量准备越境进入印度发起袭击的武装人员以及他们的保护者（可能是指巴基斯坦士兵）。


The Indian public and the country’s notoriously fractious political class reacted with great pride to the news, unanimously hailing the decisive action as long overdue.	印度公众和该国因分裂而臭名昭著的政治阶层对这一消息倍感自豪，一直赞扬早就应当采取这样果断的军事行动。


For the preceding quarter-century, Indians had watched helplessly as their attempts at peace-making with their belligerent, military-dominated neighbor had collapsed repeatedly, thanks to terrorist attacks from Pakistan that the government in Islamabad seemed unable or unwilling to prevent.	过去四分之一世纪，印度人只能无奈地看着他们与军事策略主导的好战邻国实现和平的愿望一次次破产，而这必须归功于伊斯兰堡政府似乎不愿或无力阻止来自巴基斯坦的恐怖袭击活动。


The most horrific of these attacks, the assaults on multiple locations in Mumbai, starting on November 26, 2008, killed 166 innocent civilians.	这些袭击行动中最恐怖的于2008年11月26日同时发生在孟买的多个地点，并导致166名无辜平民因此丧生。


But India confined its response to diplomatic action.	但印度所采取的对策仅限于外交行动。


This exercise of “strategic restraint” in the face of repeated Pakistani assaults – partly in order to avoid provoking a full-fledged war with its nuclear-armed neighbor – had left many Indians seething in impotent fury.	面对巴基斯坦反复袭击所表现出的这种“战略克制”——部分为了避免与核武装邻国发生全面战争——让很多印度人因为政府的无能而陷入深深的愤怒当中。


It seemed to them that Pakistani terrorists could strike at will in India, with the government’s reluctance to hit back guaranteeing the killers’ impunity.	在他们看来巴基斯坦恐怖分子可以随意袭击印度，而政府不愿还手则确保了杀人犯可以不受惩罚。


In January, militants struck across the frontier at the Indian base in Pathankot.	1月，激进分子跨境袭击了帕坦科特印度基地边界。


As usual, India tempered its response, even inviting Pakistan to join in an official investigation of the attack.	和往常一样，印度控制了自己的反应，甚至邀请巴基斯坦加入对这次袭击的官方调查。


The Pakistanis sent over a team of military and intelligence experts, which examined the site of the assaults, went home, and proclaimed it a false-flag operation intended to inculpate an innocent Pakistan.	巴基斯坦人派出了一支军事和情报专家小组，在对袭击地点进行调查后，返回国内并宣称这是一次旨在抹黑无辜巴基斯坦人的虚假行动。


Indians, sickened by this perfidy, found themselves mourning again in September, when another cross-border assault killed 18 soldiers at an Army base in Uri.	这样的背信弃义令印度民众作呕，而9月印度人又被迫为再次发生的袭击事件哀悼，那次跨境袭击中某陆军基地的18名士兵因此死亡。


Still, there seemed little Indians could do – until the DGMO’s statement announcing a decisive military response.	但印度人似乎依然束手无策——直到军事行动总干事公开发表果断军事行动的声明。


Pakistani reactions were a curious mixture, ranging from dismissive declarations (backed by orchestrated bus tours of journalists to selected parts of the LoC) that no surgical strikes had even occurred, to angry statements declaring that irresponsible Indian firing across the LoC had killed two Pakistani soldiers.	巴基斯坦的反应像是某种奇怪的混合体，从拒绝承认外科手术式的袭击确实发生过（通过精心炮制组织记者乘车前往控制线某些部分参观）到愤怒地声明穿越控制线的不负责任的印度炮火致使两名巴基斯坦士兵死亡。


For once, the Pakistani military appeared to have been caught off guard by Indian action.	这一次，巴基斯坦军方似乎因为印度的行动而惊惶失措。


Indians braced themselves for the international community’s disapproval – the fear of nuclear war between the sub-continental neighbors usually dominates world opinion whenever bilateral tensions flare.	印度准备好面对国际社会的不满——每当双边局势紧张时国际舆论就会被对次大陆邻国间核战争的恐惧所左右。


But this time, thanks in part to the DGMO’s measured and precise statement and an absence of military triumphalism in India’s official tone (the braggadocio of the ruling party’s publicists came later), the world seemed to consider India’s response justifiable.	但这一次，部分由于军事行动总干事深思熟虑的精准声明以及印度官方表态中没有强调军事胜利的成分（执政党宣传人员的自吹自擂之后才开始），国际社会似乎认为印度的反应是合理的。


Pakistani attempts to seek support against India were widely rebuffed, with Pakistan’s usual supporters, China and the US, mildly calling for both sides to defuse the tensions.	巴基斯坦寻求支持反对印度的企图普遍遭到了挫败，作为该国惯常支持者的中美只是温和地呼吁双方缓和紧张局势。


In the days following the strikes, fears of further military escalation have subsided.	在袭击后的日子里，有关进一步军事升级的担忧已经逐步消退。


India also tightened the diplomatic screws on its recalcitrant neighbor, persuading other members of the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) to call off a planned summit in Islamabad as punishment for Pakistan’s bad behavior.	印度还拧紧了控制其顽固邻国的外交螺丝，说服南亚区域合作联盟（SAARC）其他成员国取消在伊斯兰堡举行首脑会议的计划以惩罚巴基斯坦的不良行为。


India’s government also announced that it was undertaking a review of the Indus Waters Treaty, under which India has conceded to Pakistan, on generous terms, the waters of the Indus River, which originates in India, not even using the share to which it is entitled.	印度政府还宣布正在对“印度河水域条约”进行审查，印度在上述条约中对巴基斯坦作出很大让步，印度河发源于印度境内，但印度却未能使用其应有的份额。


It has since emerged that the operation announced by Singh was not India’s first military strike across the LoC; several had occurred under the previous government as well, in response to military raids on Indian territory.	其后传出的消息表明辛格所宣布的行动并非印度首次跨越控制线的军事打击行动； 前任政府治下也曾发生过几次，作为对袭击印度领土的报复行为。


But the strikes were the first to be announced publicly, providing a clear signal of intent and a bold statement that business as usual – Pakistani pinpricks followed by Indian inaction – is no longer to be expected.	但此次袭击首次对外公开宣布，因此成了一种明确的意图信号和大胆的声明，向外界宣示维持惯常的状况——即印度不对巴基斯坦的挑衅作出任何反应——不太可能再度发生。


With its calibrated and targeted strikes, India has made clear that inaction is not the only possible response to terrorist provocations.	凭借这次深思熟虑的精准打击，印度已经表明坐以待毙不是面对恐怖主义挑衅的唯一可能对策。


It is a brave and slightly risky strategy, because it obliges India to pursue a similar course of action when the next significant terrorist strike occurs.	这种战略勇敢但稍有冒险，因为它迫使印度在下一次重大恐怖主义袭击发生时采取类似的行动。


Still, a country that refuses to suffer repeated body blows earns more respect than one whose restraint can be interpreted as weakness.	但一个拒绝承受反复身体伤害的国家比一个克制可以被理解为软弱的国家能够赢得更多的尊重。


If this determination, and Pakistan’s ensuing diplomatic isolation, prompts Pakistani generals to rethink their policy of sponsoring terrorism as an instrument of state policy, peace between the neighbors could once again become a possibility.	如果这种决心和巴基斯坦其后的外交孤立能够促使巴基斯坦将军重新思考他们支持恐怖主义的国家政策，那么两国之间的和平或许会再次成为可能。


But, for India, such hopes have been betrayed too often in the recent past for it to continue to turn the other cheek.	但对印度而言，这样的希望在过去遭受过太多背叛，印度不能继续这样束手无策。


India’s Urban Awakening	印度的城市觉醒


WASHINGTON, DC – When the United Kingdom became the first country in the world to undergo large-scale urbanization in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the process transformed its economy and society.	华盛顿——当英国成为19世纪和20世纪初世界上第一个经历大规模城市化的国家，城市化进程彻底改变了它的经济和社会。


Today, India is facing a similar transformation, only it is happening at 100 time the pace.	今天，印度正面临类似的转型，只是转型速度比英国快一百倍。


By 2030, India’s urban population will reach 600 million people, twice the size of America’s.	截至2030年，印度的城市人口将达到6亿，相当于美国的两倍。


For India, rapid urbanization is particularly vital to enable the country to take full advantage of the demographic dividend afforded by its young population.	对印度而言，快速城市化对该国充分利用其青年人口所提供的人口红利尤为重要。


With 12 million more people joining the country’s labor force every year, the potential of that dividend is huge.	每年都有超过1，200万人加入该国的劳动力队伍，人口红利所能释放的潜能十分巨大。


As the urbanization process continues, connectivity, proximity, and diversity will accelerate knowledge diffusion, spark further innovation, and enhance productivity and employment growth.	随着城市化进程的不断推进，连通性、邻近性和多样性能够加速知识扩散，激发出进一步创新并提高生产率和就业增长。


For all of its benefits, however, rapid urbanization also poses enormous challenges, from managing congestion and pollution to ensuring that growth is inclusive and equitable.	虽然可以带来种种好处，但快速城市化也会带来从拥堵和污染管理到确保包容及公平增长在内的重大挑战。


As a latecomer to urbanization, India will benefit from technological innovations – including digital technologies, cleaner energy, innovative construction materials, and new modes of transport – that will enable it to leapfrog some of its more developed counterparts.	作为城市化道路上的后来者，印度将受益于包括数字技术、清洁能源、创新建筑材料和新型交通工具在内的各种技术创新，这些创新将使它能够超越某些更为发达的同伴。


But taking advantage of those technologies will require effective policies, including smart infrastructure investments and measures to make cities more competitive, particularly in modern industries.	但利用这些技术不能没有有效的政策，包括智能基础设施投资和使城市更具竞争力（尤其是在现代工业领域）的举措。


Making its cities more competitive will require India to decide whether to emphasize specialization (with an industry concentrated in a particular city) or diversification (with each city home to a range of industries, roughly in line with the national average).	提高城市竞争力要求印度就强调专业化（行业均集中在特定城市）还是多样化（每座城市都容纳各行各业，大致相当于全国平均水平）做出决策。


This is no easy choice: the debate over which approach is better has been raging for nearly a century.	这样的选择绝非轻而易举：关于哪种方法更优的探讨已经持续了近一个世纪。


In 1991, around the time India’s economic liberalization began, the country’s cities tended toward specialization.	1991年，大致在印度经济自由化开始的时候，该国的城市曾趋向于专业化。


But, in recent years, there has been a notable shift toward diversification, with some major urban centers, like Mumbai and Bangalore, experiencing the largest and fastest shifts away from specialization.	但近年来却朝多元化发生了显著的转变，孟买和班加罗尔等某些主要城市中心正在以最快的速度和最大的规模远离专业化。


Specialization tends to be much higher in traditional industries than in modern industries.	传统产业的专业化倾向远比现代产业要高得多。


Though some modern industries – like office accounting and computing machinery, and radio, television, and communication equipment – tend to be located in more specialized districts, roughly three-quarters of Indian districts with higher specialization levels rely on traditional industries.	尽管某些现代产业——如办公室会计和计算机、广播、电视和通讯设备——往往分布在更专业化的地区，但约3/4专业化水平较高的印度地区主要依赖于传统产业。


Of India’s 600 districts, those that remain the most specialized are Kavaratti (water transport), Darjiling (paper products), Panchkula (office accounting and computing machinery), and Wokha (wood products).	在印度的600个地区中，仍然在专业化方面名列前茅的包括Kavaratti （水运）、Darjiling （纸制品）、Panchkula （办公会计和计算机）以及Wokha （木制品）等领域。


Though India’s specialization levels were much higher than those in the United States in the early 1990s, the two countries have converged over time.	尽管印度的专业化水平远高于20世纪90年代初的美国，但随着时间的推移两国逐渐趋于一致。


All of this suggests that, as technology continues to advance, so will diversification – a trend that will shape future urbanization patterns in India.	所有这一切都表明多元化将随技术的发展而不断发展——这一趋势将影响印度未来的城市化模式。


This bodes well for employment, because more diversified cities and districts tend to experience greater job growth.	这对就业来讲非常有利，因为城市和地区越多元化就业增长往往就越显著。


Initial clusters of modern services have also experienced abnormally high employment growth since 2000.	自2000年来，现代服务业的最初聚集地同样经历了就业增长的急剧攀升。


And there’s more good news: the strongest job gains due to diversification are occurring in rural areas and among small enterprises, suggesting that India’s urbanization can bring inclusive growth and prosperity.	还有更多好消息：最强劲的就业增长发生在农村和小型企业，表明印度的城市化能够带来包容性经济增长和繁荣。


Evidence also shows that high growth rates, which support poverty reduction, are concentrated in the rural areas of particular districts.	还有证据表明支撑减贫的高经济增长率基本集中在特定地区的农村。


Taking full advantage of these positive trends, however, will require India to boost infrastructure investment.	但充分发挥这些积极趋势的作用需要印度加强基础设施投资。


Despite a slowdown in the manufacturing sector’s growth – a trend mirrored in much of the rest of the world – urbanization has continued to accelerate in India, especially in districts with access to better infrastructure.	尽管制造业增长有所放缓——世界大部分地区同样呈现出这样的趋势——但印度的城市化进程却继续加速，特别是在那些拥有更好基础设施的地区。


In the developing world, a billion people lack access to electricity and roads, and more than a half-billion lack reliable access to safe drinking water.	在发展中世界里，有10亿人口缺少电力和道路，而超过5亿人无法可靠地获得安全饮用水。


Addressing these deficiencies is critical to development – and India is no exception.	解决这些短缺是发展的关键——印度也不例外。


Access to better infrastructure will enable millions more entrepreneurs, especially women, to benefit from the country’s urban awakening.	使用更好的基础设施将使数百万企业家，尤其是女性，从该国的城市觉醒中受益。


The key to success will be to improve the efficiency of public spending, while attracting more private investment.	成功的关键在于提高公共开支效率，同时吸引更多的私人投资。


There is certainly an economic incentive for private actors to channel their money toward developing-country infrastructure.	毫无疑问，私人投资者将资金投入发展中国家基础设施建设存在某种经济动机。


After all, high-income countries, where populations are aging rapidly, often have an excess of savings ready to be allocated to high-yield investments.	归根结底，高收入国家人口正在迅速老龄化，这种情况往往存在储蓄过剩，渴望分配给高收益投资。


Lower-income countries, with their younger populations and large infrastructure needs, provide just such opportunities.	而低收入国家则因为拥有年轻人口和大规模基础设施需求，恰恰能够提供这样的机遇。


As it stands, however, less than 1% of the $68 trillion managed by pension funds, life insurance companies, and others are channeled toward infrastructure projects.	但目前的情况是，由养老基金、人寿保险企业和其他机构所管理的68万亿美元资金中仅有不到百分之一流向了基础设施投资。


And, given the low risk appetite among investors, not to mention the small size of city-level projects, municipal governments will struggle to raise that share.	而且，由于投资者较低的风险偏好，更不用说市级项目本身规模较小，市政府需要拼命努力才能凑足所需的份额。


But it isn’t impossible.	但这并不是不可能的。


What is needed is visionary leadership at the local level, with municipal governments identifying infrastructure projects that promote entrepreneurship, increase their cities’ competitiveness, and promote regional development by strengthening urban-rural connectivity.	我们需要地方层面富于远见的领导力，由市政府提供促进创业、提高城市竞争力和通过强化城市农村互联互通而促进区域发展的基础设施项目。 这些政府还应当利用他们的资产，包括土地；


Those governments should also leverage their assets, including land; mobilize user revenue; and modify financial regulations and incentives to increase investors’ risk appetite.	调动用户收入； 修改金融法规和激励机制以增加投资者的风险偏好。


Add to that greater technical and financial capacity, and it would become much easier to attract the needed private funds and build partnerships benefiting India’s urban transformation.	再加上更强劲的技术和财政能力，就能使吸引所需私人资金及建设惠及印度城市转型的伙伴关系变得容易得多。


India has all of the tools it needs to advance its urbanization process in a way that promotes inclusive and sustainable growth.	印度已经掌握了推进包容性和可持续发展城市化进程所需的一切工具。


It must use them wisely.	印度必须对它们加以明智的利用。


Bottling Indonesia’s Gini	遏制印度尼西亚的基尼系数


JAKARTA – When Indonesia declared independence from Dutch rule in 1945, the country’s founder, Sukarno, called on his people to build a nation that would “stand in strength,” eternally united.	雅加达—1945年，印度尼西亚宣布脱离荷兰独立，国父苏加诺号召他的人民建设一个“强大地屹立”的国家，实现永久的统一。


That mantra – unity and strength – helped shape the country’s future, including its approach to economic development.	这一口号——统一而强大——影响了这个国家的未来，包括其经济发展方针。


During much of Indonesia’s early history, its egalitarian distribution of wealth and assets set it apart from its neighbors.	在印度尼西亚早期历史的大部分时间里，其平等主义的财富和资产分配让它与邻国显得卓然不同。


But seven decades later, the legacy of equality is fading.	但七十年后，平等性的遗产正在褪色。


If Indonesia is to remain one of Asia’s most robust economies, it is essential that its current leadership recommit to narrowing the socioeconomic gap.	如果印尼想要继续成为亚洲最坚挺的经济体之一，现任领导层就必须重新致力于弥合社会经济差距。


During much of the 1970s and 1980s, Indonesia’s low level of income inequality helped raise living standards and reduce poverty.	在20世纪七八十年代的大部分时间里，印尼收入不平等性很低，这帮助其提高了生活水平，减少了贫困。


In 1970, just 25 years after independence, the country managed an enviable distribution of wealth among a diverse population, with a Gini coefficient (a common measure of income inequality) of 0.35 (with zero representing maximum equality).	1970年，独立仅25年的印尼就在多样化的人口中间实现了令人艳羡的财富分配，基尼系数（衡量收入不平等性的常用指标）只有0. 35（0表示最大的平等）。


By comparison, neighboring Malaysia had a Gini coefficient of 0.50.	比较而言，相邻的马来西亚的基尼系数为0. 50。


Indonesia’s remained roughly the same for decades.	印尼的基尼系数在这一水平上保持了几十年。


But, since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, income gaps have widened throughout the region, and in Indonesia in particular, where social welfare programs have barely stemmed the rise in inequality.	但1997年亚洲金融危机后，收入差距开始在整个地区拉大，印尼尤其严重，社会福利计划对于阻止不平等性的加剧几乎毫无作用。 今年，印尼基尼系数在0.


This year, Indonesia’s Gini coefficient is around 0.39, only slightly better than the 0.41 recorded in 2014.	39左右，只比创下0. 41的记录的2014年略好。


To economists like us, this trend is deeply worrying.	对我等经济学家而言，这一趋势非常令人担忧。


Because persistent high or rising inequality can contribute to political instability and undermine social cohesion, it is critical that Indonesia address it.	因为持续高企或加剧的不平等性可能导致政治动荡、破坏社会凝聚力，因此印尼必须解决这个问题。


Paradoxically, Malaysia’s experience is instructive.	讽刺的是，马来西亚的经验很有裨益。


In Malaysia, income inequality is no longer primarily a function of ethnicity, or the rural-urban divide, as it once was.	在马来西亚，收入不平等已不再像过去那样主要是民族或城乡差距的结果。 拜20世纪七八十年代所实施的成功的再分配战略所赐，平均人均收入增加了，贫困率大大下降了。


Thanks to successful redistribution strategies adopted during the 1970s and 1980s, average per capita income increased, and poverty rates fell dramatically.	尽管财富分配仍然是一个重大问题，但马来西亚基尼系数自20世纪70年代中期以来稳步向着更平等的方向变化；


Though wealth distribution remains a major concern, Malaysia’s Gini coefficient has been on a steady glide toward greater equality since the mid-1970s; in 2014, for example, it dropped to 0.40 for the first time ever, (though this figure remains higher than the average for OECD economies).	比如，2014年马来西亚基尼系数首次降到了0. 40（尽管这一数字仍高于经合组织经济体平均水平）。


Indonesia is moving in the opposite direction.	印尼则在向相反的方向变化。


Not only does it have one of the highest levels of wealth inequality in the world; it also suffers deep regional disparities.	其财富不平等性位于世界最高水平之列，还伴随着深刻的地区差异。


The country’s poorer eastern provinces, which have a history of ethnic violence, lag behind the rest of the country on human development indicators, infrastructure quality, and access to education.	较穷的东部身份历史上种族暴力频仍，人类发展指数、基础设施质量和教育普及度都落后于印尼其他地区。


Despite the country’s overall progress, food insecurity and child malnutrition remain serious issues in the east.	尽管印尼总体而言有所进步，但在东部，粮食不安全和儿童营养不良等问题依然严重。


In other words, it is not just Indonesia’s income distribution that concerns us, but how unequal access to health care, education, and social services has become.	换句话说，让我们感到担心的不仅仅是印尼的收入分配，还有医疗、教育和社会服务普及度的不平等。


Our concern is widely shared.	我们的担心是许多人所共有的。


Last month, scholars, practitioners, and policymakers from around the world gathered at the Indonesian Development Forum to explore solutions to the many forms of inequality that are affecting Indonesia today.	上个月，世界各地的学者、实践家和决策者齐聚印尼发展论坛（Indonesian Development Forum），探讨如何解决如今影响着印尼的多种不平等性问题。


The challenges are complex, and discussions focused on the need for multipronged solutions.	挑战是复杂的，讨论则集中在多管齐下的方案。


As Columbia University’s Jeffrey D. Sachsnoted, greater investment in education, and more effective wealth redistribution strategies, are the key areas that Indonesia’s government must focus on.	哥伦比亚大学的 杰弗里·萨克斯（Jeffrey D. Sachs）指出，加强教育投资，以及更有效的财富再分配战略，是印尼政府必须关注的重点领域。


The classroom is the foundation of sustainable development everywhere.	教室是可持续发展的基础，所有国家都是如此。


Access to education is one of the best ways for poor or disadvantaged youth to become economically productive and climb out of poverty.	普及教育是贫穷和弱势群体青年掌握经济生产力、走出贫困的最佳办法。


Unfortunately, Indonesia’s public schools, especially in the east, are struggling with teacher absenteeism.	不幸的是，印尼（特别是其东部）的公立学校饱受教师缺勤的影响。


Children who want to learn simply cannot when their instructors do not show up.	没有老师，再渴望学习的儿童也无法学到知识。


Broadening access to education is not only about boosting enrollment rates; it also requires ensuring accountability and improving service quality.	加强教育普及不仅仅是提高入学率的问题； 也需要确保问责、改善服务质量。


Still, reforming the education sector alone will not be enough to close Indonesia’s wealth gap.	尽管如此，光靠教育仍不足以填补印尼的财富差距。


Strategies that the government should consider include expanding social protection; creating more vocational-training programs; and overhauling the tax system.	政府应该考虑的战略包括扩大社会保护、建立更多的在职培训计划，以及改革税收制度。


In many OECD countries, redistributive policies, like tax breaks and expansion of welfare benefits, have helped reduce inequality.	在许多经合组织国家，再分配政策——如税收优惠和福利扩大——帮助降低了不平等性。


If Indonesia is to hit the targets set by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals for reducing inequality by 2030, it must follow these countries’ example.	如果印尼想要达到联合国可持续发展目标对2030年降低不平等性的要求，就必须效仿这些国家的榜样。


There are many reasons to be hopeful.	我们有很多理由保持乐观。


Bambang Brodjonegoro, Indonesia’s Minister of National Development Planning, has helped make social inequality a key agenda item, following the direction of President Joko Widodo.	按照总统佐科·维多多的指示，印尼国家发展规划部部长班庞（Bambang Brodjonegoro）将社会不平等性列为重要发展日程。


This time next year, the Indonesia Development Forum will meet again to gauge progress in our efforts to tackle regional inequality.	明年的这个时候，印尼发展论坛将再次举行会议，评估我们的解决地区不平等性的措施的进展情况。


Clearly, the political will exists to restore greater equality to Indonesia’s economy.	显然，印尼有政治意愿恢复其经济的较高的平等性。


If current leaders can remain as focused on their vision as the country’s founders were on theirs, Indonesia will again serve as a model of unity and strength for the region.	如果现任领导层能够一直向国父那样致力于这一愿景，印尼将会再次成为整个地区的统一和强大的榜样。


Inequality Comes to Asia	不平等性降临亚洲


SEOUL – From China to India, Asian countries’ rapid economic expansion has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in recent decades.	首尔—从中国到印度，近几十年来亚洲国家的高速经济扩张让数亿人摆脱了贫困。


Yet the income distribution has lately worsened, with inequality now potentially even more severe in Asia than in the developed economies of the West.	但最近，收入分配出现恶化，如今亚洲的不平等性甚至比西方发达经济体还要严重。


From 1990 to 2012, the net Gini coefficient – a common measure of (post-tax and post-transfer) income inequality – increased dramatically in China, from 0.37 to 0.51 (zero signifies perfect equality and one represents perfect inequality).	从1990年到2012年，中国净基尼系数——衡量（税收和转移支付后）收入不平等性的常用指标——从0. 37大幅上升至0.


It rose in India as well, from 0.43 to 0.48.	51（零代表完全品更，一代表完全不平等）。 印度净基尼系数也从0.


Even the four “Asian Tigers” – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan – which had previously grown “with equity,” have lately faced rising inequality.	48。 即使是此前“平等地”增长的“亚洲四小龙”——香港、新加坡、韩国和台湾——最近也面临不平等性上升的局面。


In South Korea, for example, the share of income held by the top 10% rose from 29% in 1995 to 45% in 2013.	比如，韩国顶层10%所得到的收入占比从1995年的29%升高到2013年的45%。


This trend is being driven largely by the same forces that have fueled Asia’s economic growth in recent decades: unbridled globalization and technological progress.	不平等性恶化趋势背后的推动力量，正是近几十年来推动亚洲经济增长的力量：高歌猛进的全球化和技术进步。


Increasingly open borders have made it easier for businesses to find the cheapest locations for their operations.	日益开放的边境让企业更容易寻找最便宜的地方开展业务。


In particular, China’s entry into global markets has put downward pressure on the wages of low-skill production workers elsewhere.	特别是，中国进入全球市场给其他地区的低技能生产工人造成了工资压力。


Meanwhile, new technologies raise demand for skilled workers, while reducing demand for their less-skilled counterparts – a trend that fuels the expansion of the wage gap between skilled and unskilled.	与此同时，新技术提高了高技能工人的需求，同时降低了低技能工人的需求——这一趋势令高技能和低技能工人之间的工资差距雪上加霜。


Capital owners also reap major benefits from technological progress.	资本所有者还攫取了技术进步的大部分收益。


In short, as the Nobel laureate Angus Deaton has acknowledged, by creating new opportunities for a certain group of millions of people, while subjecting an enormous number of people to wage stagnation, unemployment, and economic precarity, globalization and technological innovation have helped to widen the gap between the haves and have-nots.	简言之，正如诺贝尔奖得主迪顿（Angus Deaton）所指出，全球和技术进步化为数百万特定人群创造出新机会，同时也让为数巨大的人群陷入工资停滞、失业和经济困顿，从而拉开了有产者和无产者之间的差距。


Exacerbating this trend, income inequality often goes hand in hand with inequality of opportunity.	收入不平等常常与机会不平等相伴相生，这进一步恶化了这一趋势。


With limited educational and economic prospects, talented youth from disadvantaged backgrounds end up running in place.	起点较低的有才青年，因为教育和经济前景饱受限制而最终原地踏步。


As inequality becomes increasingly entrenched, it can erode the consensus in favor of pro-growth economic policies, undermine social cohesion, and spur political instability.	随着不平等性日益根深蒂固，有利于促增长的经济政策的共识可能受到影响，从而破坏社会凝聚，刺激政治动荡。


To avoid such a future, Asian countries need to change the rules of the game, providing opportunities for youth, whatever their background, to ascend the income ladder.	要避免这样的结果，亚洲国家需要改变游戏规则，让年轻人不论出身贵贱与否，都能获得在收入阶梯上向上攀爬的机会。


Market mechanisms are not enough to achieve this.	市场机制不足以实现这一点。


Governments must take action, complementing their pro-growth policies with policies aimed at ensuring that the gains are shared much more equally and sustainably.	政府必须采取行动，除了促增长之外，还要采取旨在确保增长收益被更平等、更持续地共享的政策。


To be sure, some Asian governments have been attempting to tackle inequality with progressive redistribution policies.	平心而论，一些亚洲政府一直在努力用进步的再分配政策解决不平等性问题。


For example, South Korea’s government recently announced that it will raise the minimum wage next year by 16.4%, to 7,530 won ($6.70) per hour, and up to 55% above its current level by 2020.	比如，韩国政府最近宣布从明年起将最低工资提高16. 4%至每小时7,530韩元（6.


It will also raise tax rates for the highest income earners and companies.	70美元），并在2020年在此基础上再提高55%。 它还将提高最高收入者和公司的税率。


But, while such measures have strong public support, they could end up hurting the economy, by reducing business investment, for example, and impeding job creation.	但尽管这些措施能获得大量群众支持，最终的结果可能会（比如）拖累商业投资、阻碍就业岗位创造，从而伤及经济。


In fact, the first rule of thumb in combating today’s inequality should be that simplistic egalitarian policies are not a permanent solution – and may, in fact, have adverse long-term consequences.	事实上，遏制当今不平等性局面的首要经验规则应该是简单粗暴的平等主义政策不可能一劳永逸——事实上它们可能会产生消极的长期后果。


Consider the Venezuelan government’s decision, in the late 1990s, to implement populist redistributive policies, without addressing the economy’s overreliance on the oil industry and lack of competitiveness.	以委内瑞拉为例，20世纪90年代末，委内瑞拉政府决定实施民粹主义再分配政策，而不是去解决经济过度依赖石油业、缺乏竞争力的问题。


That choice has pushed the country to the edge of bankruptcy, while fueling large-scale social unrest and political turmoil.	这个选择让国家濒临破产，也助长的大规模社会动乱和政治动荡。


Venezuela’s national catastrophe should serve as a warning to everyone.	委内瑞拉的国家灾难应该让所有人警醒。


The best way to enhance both equity and growth is effective development of human capital, which not only supports higher incomes today, but also ensures intergenerational mobility tomorrow.	同时改善平等性和增长的最佳方法是有效发展人力资本，这不但能够支持现在的收入的提高，还能保证未来的代际流动性。


This requires enhanced social safety nets and redistributive tax-and-transfer programs, as well as access to quality education for all.	这需要加强社会安全网和再分配税收和转移支付计划，以及普及全民品质教育。


The good news is that many East Asian economies are already investing more in public education, in order to expand opportunities for all population groups.	好消息是许多东亚经济体已经开始加大公共教育投资力度，以期为全体人民扩大机会。


But more must be done.	但还必须做更多事情。


Asia needs to improve further the quality of its higher education as well, reforming curricula to ensure that young people are getting the knowledge and skills they need to prepare them for the labor market.	亚洲还需需要进一步改善高等教育质量，实施课程改革以确保年轻人获得为进入劳动力市场做好准备所需要的知识和技能。


Meanwhile, the labor market should be made more efficient and flexible, so that it can match people with the right jobs and reward them adequately.	与此同时，劳动力市场应该更加有效和灵活，从而将人与正确的岗位相匹配，给予他们充分的报酬。


As technology continues to transform the economy, life-long education and training is needed to enable workers to keep up.	随着技术不断地改变经济，需要终身教育和培训让工人不掉队。


Promoting the participation of girls and women in education and economic activity is also important.	促进更多女孩和妇女受教育和参与经济活动也十分重要。


Furthermore, governments should create an environment that fosters small innovative startups.	此外，政府应该营造有利于小型创新初创企业的环境。


And, of course, they should sustain pro-growth policies that boost overall job creation and reduce unemployment, while rejecting barriers to trade or innovation.	当然，它们还应该保持促增长政策，提高总体就业岗位创造、降低失业率，同时杜绝贸易或创新壁垒。


In today’s charged political environment, there is a growing temptation to reject globalization and embrace populist redistribution policies that could end up doing far more harm than good.	在当今紧张的政治氛围中，拒绝全球化、采取民粹主义再分配政策的诱惑越来越大，但这样做最终弊远大于利。


Asia’s leaders must do better if they are to realize the true promise of “growth with equity.”	如果亚洲领导人想要实现真正的“平等的增长”的承诺，就必须做得更好。


The Global Security Threat of Antimicrobial Resistance	抗生素耐药性全球安全威胁


SEATTLE – Today we are faced with the harsh reality that the treatment or prevention of infectious diseases has not made quantum advances since the early successes of vaccines and antimicrobial therapies.	西雅图—今天，我们面临一个严峻的现实：在疫苗和抗菌疗法的早期成功后，传染病的治疗和预防毫无进展。


In a sense, the world is headed backward, as once-treatable microbes become resistant to existing therapies, and new infections for which there are no effective interventions continue to arise.	从某种程度上说，世界正在倒退，因为一些曾经可治的微生物对现有疗法产生了抗药性，而没有有效干预手段的感染仍在继续产生。


The situation represents a serious and imminent threat to the world.	这一局面是对世界一个严重而紧迫的威胁。


Witness the global impact of the 2014 Ebola crisis in West Africa or the 2003 SARS outbreak, which jeopardized even wealthy economies like Singapore and Canada.	看看2014年西非埃博拉危机或2003年“非典”爆发所造成的全球影响吧，就连新加坡和加拿大这样的富裕经济体也受到了波及。


The emergence of a highly lethal and rapidly spreading antimicrobial-resistant infection would lead to untold numbers of deaths and unimaginable misery.	迅速传播的高致命性耐抗生素传染的出现将导致难以估量的死亡和不可想象的惨状。


The consequences could be similar in magnitude to a large-scale terrorist attack.	其后果可能与大规模恐怖袭击等量齐观。


Communities could be walled off, national borders closed, and travel could be restricted or even suspended.	社区将被隔离，国家边境关闭，旅行受到限制甚至中止。


Health systems could disintegrate or collapse, as could economies.	卫生系统可能瓦解或崩溃，经济亦然。


The possibility of such an apocalyptic scenario suggests that the threat of infectious diseases – either from microbes that develop resistance to existing therapies or new microbes that emerge – is among the most important challenges that humankind faces.	这一启示录情景的可能性意味着传染病威胁——不管是来自产生了对已有疗法抗性的微生物还是新出现的微生物——是人类所面临的最重要的挑战之一。


It is not just a public health risk; it is a threat to national and global security.	这不仅仅是公共卫生风险； 也是国家和全球安全威胁。


Thus, it must be met with a comprehensive and effective solution.	因此，必须以全面有效的方案应对。


The research and development required to produce new medicines or vaccines is time-consuming, often taking more than a dozen years.	生产新药或新疫苗的研发需要时间，动辄十多年，并且非常昂贵，每种新产品都要耗资数亿美元。


It is also very expensive, costing hundreds of millions of dollars for every new product.	此外，没人能保证成功；


Moreover, there is no guarantee of success; indeed, for each successful product, there are as many as nine equally promising candidates that fail.	事实上，每一种成功的产品背后都有多达九种前途同样光明的候选产品的失败。


Given the risks involved, it is not surprising that pharmaceutical companies are very careful in their choice of investments in new drug or vaccine programs, selecting only those that promise financial gains sufficient to cover the costs of both successes and failures and provide a reasonable return on the required investment.	考虑到这些风险，毫不奇怪制药公司对于新药或疫苗计划的投资选择慎之又慎，只挑选财务收益前景足以覆盖成功和失败的成本并为所需投资提供合理回报的候选项目。


Many ideas have emerged to address this investment problem, such as offering prizes for successful products, creating new incentives for industry investments, and establishing novel funding mechanisms to support research to address emerging infectious threats.	为了解决这一投资问题，人们提出了许多想法，比如为成功的产品提供奖励、为工业投资创造新激励、建立新型融资机制支持解决新出现的传染病威胁的研究等。


All have merit and would have some impact, but they would lead to incremental advances at best.	它们各有长处，能起到一定效果，但充其量只能带来增量进展。


A more ambitious solution is needed.	我们需要更加宏大的方案。


Almost every country is prepared to channel a large percentage of its GDP toward investments in national defense or security.	几乎每个国家都时刻准备将很大一部分GDP用于国防或安全投资。


The global threat of emerging or resistant infections must be viewed first and foremost in that context, with all countries committed to providing financing, intellectual capital, and available resources to support the discovery, development, manufacture, stockpiling, and equitable distribution of new antimicrobial agents and vaccines.	新出现的或耐药性传染病的全球威胁首先必须在这一环境下进行审视，所有国家都要承诺提供资金、知识资本和可用资源以支持新抗生素和疫苗的发现、开发、制造、储存和平等分配。


Unless countries recognize the risks they face, they are unlikely to make such a commitment.	除非各国都认识到它们所面临的风险，否则它们不可能做出这样的承诺。


It might help to inform them that the estimated cost of emerging global infectious threats is $60 billion per year; if investments are made upfront, the total costs could be much smaller.	让它们知道全球新出现传染病威胁的成本估计高达每年600亿美元、前端投资原本可以让这一总成本大大减少或许有所助益。


Country investments should be pooled to create a substantial pipeline of products to combat infectious threats.	国家投资应该集中起来，形成一个巨大的产品线（pipeline）遏制传染病威胁。


There are many ways this could be done.	这可以通过多种方法实现。


The easiest would be to spread the money around to scientists in academia, product-development partnerships, biotech firms, and larger pharmaceutical companies as opportunities arise.	最容易的办法是在机会出现时为学界、产研合作机构、生物科技企业以及更大的制药公司的科学家提供资金。


This might allow existing processes to move forward with new momentum based on the availability of new funds.	这也许可以让现有流程借助可获得新资金的东风实现推进。


Unfortunately, history suggests that this wouldn’t lead to much progress beyond the state of the pipeline today.	不幸的是，历史表明这无法产生远远超过现有产品线状态的进步。


An alternative would be to create a full-fledged, global, not-for-profit pharmaceutical company with a research budget equal to that of the world’s top five for-profit companies, and with the singular objective of creating a pipeline of products to address the challenge of infectious threats.	另一种方法是建立一个成熟的全球化非盈利制药公司，给予其与世界前五大盈利公司同等的研究预算，其唯一的目标是创造一个产品线解决传染病威胁挑战。


As with any of its for-profit peers, the management and scientific talent to undertake this effort would have to be the best available, and attracting it would require competitive compensation.	与盈利性同业一样，承担这一任务的管理层和科学人才必须是可以找到的最优秀的人才，而吸引这样的人才必须提供有竞争力的薪酬。


The management team would be held accountable for its performance by a board of investors, comprising representatives of countries that provide the funding and scientists who provide the intellectual capital.	由投资者委员会来问责管理团队，而委员会由提供资金的国家的代表和提供知识资本的科学家组成。


In keeping with industry practice, the pipelines would have to be built with a combination of internal research and in-licensing or acquisition of external innovation.	按照行业惯例，产品线必须通过结合内部研究和引入式许可（in-licensing）或收购外部创新建立。


Adequate infrastructure for clinical trials would have to be built to support research not only in developed countries, but also in remote regions where some of the infectious threats that the world faces are likely to emerge.	必须建设充分的临床试验基础设施以支持研究，不仅包括发达国家的研究，也包括可能产生威胁全世界的传染病风险的偏远地区的研究。


The new company’s work would be aided by prior agreements among regulatory agencies on the requirements for registration of new products, among intellectual-property holders on waiving royalty rights, and among governments on liability-protection for the company and compensation for the victims of unexpected adverse reactions to new products. The international community would have to increase available manufacturing capacity, create new distribution channels, and reserve storage capacity for stockpiling products that have no immediate application.	新公司的工作应该获得监管机构间关于新产品注册要求的前置协议（prior agreements）、知识产权持有人之间放弃版权的前置协议，以及政府之间关于公司责任保护和新产品意料外副作用受害者赔偿的前置协议的帮助。


It goes without saying that this would be a complicated undertaking, with many details to be worked out.	毫无疑问，这是一个复杂的工程，需要做大量琐碎的工作。


But somehow we must suspend disbelief and take action now, lest we be caught off-guard against an imminent global threat.	但无论如何，我们必须马上停止怀疑、采取行动，否则，面对迫在眉睫的全球威胁，我们会猝不及防。


This is a battle we cannot afford to lose.	这是一场我们输不起的战争。


Intellectual Property for the Twenty-First-Century Economy	二十一世纪经济的知识产权


NEW YORK – When the South African government attempted to amend its laws in 1997 to avail itself of affordable generic medicines for the treatment of HIV/AIDS, the full legal might of the global pharmaceutical industry bore down on the country, delaying implementation and exacting a human cost.	发自纽约——当南非政府试图在1997年修改其法律以获取价格实惠的抗艾滋病毒/艾滋病普通药物时，全球制药业投入了手上所有的法律力量来围攻这个国家，拖延法律的执行并消耗了大量的人力成本。


South Africa eventually won its case, but the government learned its lesson: it did not try again to put its citizens’ health and wellbeing into its own hands by challenging the conventional global intellectual property (IP) regime.	南非最终打赢了这个案子，但政府却得到了教训：再也不要试图以挑战常规全球知识产权体制的方式来谋求本国公民的健康和福祉。


Until now.	不过这已经成为了历史了。


The South African cabinet is preparing to finalize an IP policy that promises to expand access to medicines substantially. South Africa will now undoubtedly face all manner of bilateral and multilateral pressure from wealthy countries.	南非内阁正准备最终敲定一项极大扩大药物获取渠道的知识产权政策，为此该国无疑将面临来自富裕国家的各种双边和多边压力。


But the government is right, and other developing and emerging economies should follow in its footsteps.	但南非政府是对的，而其他发展中国家和新兴经济体也应追随其脚步。


Over the last two decades, there has been serious pushback from the developing world against the current IP regime.	在过去二十年中，发展中世界对现有知识产权体制进行了奋力抵制。


In large part, this is because wealthy countries have sought to impose a one-size-fits-all model on the world, by influencing the rulemaking process at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and forcing their will via trade agreements.	这在很大程度上是因为富裕国家试图通过影响世界贸易组织规则制定过程以及通过贸易协定来实施自身意愿的方式，来将一个一刀切的模式强加给全世界。


The IP standards advanced countries favor typically are designed not to maximize innovation and scientific progress, but to maximize the profits of big pharmaceutical companies and others able to sway trade negotiations.	先进国家通常所青睐的知识产权标准不是为了最大限度地实现创新和科学进步，而是致力于最大限度地扩大大型制药企业以及其他能够左右贸易谈判者的得利。


No surprise, then, that large developing countries with substantial industrial bases – such as South Africa, India, and Brazil – are leading the counterattack.	因此诸如南非，印度，巴西等拥有大型工业基础的发展中国家发动反击也就不出所料了。


These countries are mainly taking aim at the most visible manifestation of IP injustice: the accessibility of essential medicines.	上述这些国家主要着眼于一个最体现出知识产权不公正性的地方：基本药物的可获取性。


In India, a 2005 amendment created a unique mechanism to restore balance and fairness to patenting standards, thereby safeguarding access.	在印度，一项2005年的修正案创造了一个独特的机制以恢复专利标准的平衡和公平性，从而确保了获取权。


Overcoming several challenges in domestic and international proceedings, the law has been found to comply with WTO standards.	在克服了国内和国际诉讼中的几项挑战后，该法律被认定是符合WTO标准的。


In Brazil, early action by the government to treat people with HIV/AIDS resulted in several successful negotiations, lowering drug prices considerably.	在巴西，政府治疗艾滋病毒/艾滋病患者的早期行动实现了多项成功的谈判，大大降低了药物价格。


These countries are fully justified in opposing an IP regime that is neither equitable nor efficient.	这些国家完全有理由去反对这个既不公平也不高效的知识产权制度。


In a new paper, we review the arguments about the role of intellectual property in the process of development.	在我新发表的一篇论文中，我们回顾了关于知识产权在发展过程中作用的各种论点。


We show that the preponderance of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that the economic institutions and laws protecting knowledge in today’s advanced economies are increasingly inadequate to govern global economic activity, and are poorly suited to meet the needs of developing countries and emerging markets.	文章中大量的理论和经验证据表明，当今发达经济体的经济体系和法律保护知识在管理全球经济活动方面日益暴露出其不足，也不太能满足发展中国家和新兴市场的需要。


Indeed, they are inimical to providing for basic human needs such as adequate health care.	事实上，这些体系无法提供基本的人类需要，比如充分的医疗保健。


The central problem is that knowledge is a (global) public good, both in the technical sense that the marginal cost of someone using it is zero, and in the more general sense that an increase in knowledge can improve wellbeing globally.	核心问题在于知识是一种（全球性）公共产品，一方面在技术意义上其使用者的边际成本为零，另一方面更普遍的意义在于知识的增加可以改善全球的福祉。


Given this, the worry has been that the market will undersupply knowledge, and research will not be adequately incentivized.	有鉴于此，人们忧虑的是市场无法供应足够的知识，而各类研究也无法得到充分的激励。


Throughout the late twentieth century, the conventional wisdom was that this market failure could best be rectified by introducing another one: private monopolies, created through stringent patents strictly enforced.	在二十世纪末期，传统的观点认为这种市场失灵状况可以通过引入另一个失灵状况来纠正：通过严格执行严苛专利所创造的私人垄断。


But private IP protection is just one route to solving the problem of encouraging and financing research, and it has been more problematic than had been anticipated, even for advanced countries.	但私人知识产权保护只是解决研究激励和融资问题的一条途径，即使对于先进国家来说这一手段所带来的问题也比预期更多。


An increasingly dense “patent thicket” in a world of products requiring thousands of patents has sometimes stifled innovation, with more spent on lawyers than on researchers in some cases.	在一个动辄涉及数千项专利的产品世界中，越来越密集的“专利丛林”有时会扼杀了创新，在某些情况下在律师方面的花费甚至高于研究经费。


And research often is directed not at producing new products but at extending, broadening, and leveraging the monopoly power granted through the patent.	甚至研究往往不是为了生产新产品，而是想方设法地延伸，扩大和利用专利所赋予的垄断权力。


The US Supreme Court’s 2013 decision that naturally occurring genes cannot be patented has provided a test of whether patents stimulate research and innovation, as advocates claim, or impede it, by restricting access to knowledge.	那么专利究竟是如倡导者声称般鼓励了研究和创新，还是通过限制对知识的获取而造成了阻碍？ 美国最高法院2013年关于天然产生的基因无法获得专利的裁定测试了这个问题。


The results are unambiguous: innovation has been accelerated, leading to better diagnostic tests (for the presence of, say, the BRCA genes related to breast cancer) at much lower costs.	结果是明确的：创新得到了加快，催生了更好的诊断检测手段（例如与乳腺癌相关的BRCA基因）而且成本低得多。


There are at least three alternatives for financing and incentivizing research.	至少有三种备选手段可以去资助和激励研究。


One is to rely on centralized mechanisms of direct support for research, such as the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation in the United States.	一个是依靠集中性的直接研究支持机制，比如美国国立卫生研究院和美国国家科学基金会；


Another is to decentralize direct funding through, say, tax credits.	另一个是通过例如税收抵免等方式来实现直接资助的分散化；


Or a governmental body, private foundation, or research institution can award prizes for successful innovations (or other creative activity).	或者由政府机构，私人基金会或研究机构来成功创新（或其他创意活动）颁发奖金奖品。


The patent system can be thought of as awarding a prize.	专利制度可以被视为是奖品。


But the prize impedes the flow of knowledge, reduces the benefits derived from it, and distorts the economy.	但这个奖品阻碍了知识的流动，减少了知识所产生的益处，并扭曲了经济。


By contrast, the final alternative to this system maximizes the flow of knowledge, by maintaining a creative commons, exemplified by open-source software.	相比之下，这个体系的最终替代方法则是通过维护一个类似开源软件的创新共同体来最大化知识的流动。


Developing economies should use all of these approaches to promote learning and innovation.	发展中经济体应该利用所有这些方法来促进学习和创新。


After all, economists have recognized for decades that the most important determinant of growth – and thus of gains in human development and welfare – is technological change and the knowledge it embodies.	毕竟在这几十年中经济学家已经认识到增长——以及因此带来的人类发展和福利提升——的最重要决定因素是技术变革及其所体现的知识。


What separates developing countries from developed countries is as much a gap in knowledge as a gap in resources.	而发展中国家与发达国家之间的差距不仅是在资源上的，也是知识上的。


To maximize global social welfare, policymakers should strongly encourage the diffusion of knowledge from developed to developing countries.	为了实现全球社会福祉的最大化，政策制定者应该大力鼓励知识从发达国家向发展中国家的传播。


But while the theoretical case for a more open system is robust, the world has been moving in the opposite direction.	但虽然支撑一个更开放体系的理论框架业已构建，世界却一直在朝相反的方向发展。


Over the last 30 years, the prevailing IP regime has erected more barriers to the use of knowledge, often causing the gap between the social returns to innovation and the private returns to widen.	过去三十年来，现有的知识产权体制在知识的利用方面制造了越来越多的障碍，往往导致创新带来的社会回报与私人收益之间的差距不断扩大。


The powerful advanced-economy lobbies that have shaped that regime clearly put the latter first, reflected in their opposition to provisions recognizing intellectual property rights associated with traditional knowledge or biodiversity.	而塑造这一制度的强大发达经济体游说者很显然将后者放在了首位，因为他们反对一系列认定知识产权与传统知识或生物多样性存在关联的规定。


The widespread adoption of today’s stringent IP protection is also historically unprecedented.	而当今这种广泛实施的严格知识产权保护也是史无前例的。


Even among the early industrializers, IP protection came very late and often was deliberately eschewed to enable for quicker industrialization and growth.	即使是在早期实现工业化国家中，知识产权保护也发展得很晚且经常被刻意规避以实现更快的工业化和增长。


The current IP regime is not sustainable. The twenty-first-century global economy will differ from that of the twentieth in at least two critical ways.	目前的知识产权制度是不可持续的，因为二十一世纪的全球经济至少在两个关键方面与二十世纪经济有所不同。


First, the economic weight of the economies such as South Africa, India, and Brazil will be substantially higher.	首先，南非，印度，巴西等经济体体的经济重要性将会大大提高。


Second, the “weightless economy” – the economy of ideas, knowledge, and information – will account for a growing share of output, in developed and developing economies alike.	第二，发达经济体和发展中经济体中的“无形经济”——思想，知识和信息的经济——在产出中所占比例将会越来越高。


The rules relating to the “governance” of global knowledge must change to reflect these new realities.	为此有关全球知识“治理”的规则应有所改变以反映这些新的现实。


An IP regime dictated by the advanced countries more than a quarter-century ago, in response to political pressure by a few of their sectors, makes little sense in today’s world.	一项在超过25年前由先进国家主导且受到其部分行业政治压力所左右的知识产权制度在当今世界毫无意义。


Maximizing profits for a few, rather than global development and welfare for the many, didn’t make much sense then, either – except in terms of the power dynamics at the time.	最大限度地追求一小部分人的利润，而非全球发展和大多数人的福祉，也没有什么意义——除了在当下的权力动态方面。


Those dynamics are changing, and emerging economies should take the lead in creating a balanced IP system that recognizes the importance of knowledge for development, growth, and wellbeing.	这些动态也正发生着变化，新兴经济体应该带头创造一个制衡性的知识产权制度，认识到知识对发展，成长和福祉的重要性。


What matters is not only the production of knowledge, but also that it is used in ways that put people’s health and welfare ahead of corporate profits.	因为重要的不仅是知识的生产，而是要将其用于人类的健康和福祉而非企业的利润。


South Africa’s potential decision to enable access to medicine may be an important milestone on the road toward that goal.	而南非关于获取药物的潜在决定可能是迈向这一目标的重要里程碑。


International Norms in Cyberspace	网络空间的国际规则


CAMBRIDGE – Last month, the Netherlands hosted the Global Conference on Cyberspace 2015, which brought together nearly 2,000 government officials, academics, industry representatives, and others.	坎布里奇——上个月，荷兰人举办了2015年网络空间全球会议。 那次会议吸引了近2，000名政府官员、学者、行业代表和其他人士。


I chaired a panel on cyber peace and security that included a Microsoft vice president and two foreign ministers.	我本人也主持过一次有微软副总裁和两名外长参加的网络和平安全座谈会。


This “multi-stakeholder” conference was the latest in a series of efforts to establish rules of the road to avoid cyber conflict.	此次由“各方利益相关者”出席的会议是制定规则避免网络冲突的最新努力。


The capacity to use the Internet to inflict damage is now well established.	人们现在公认互联网能够造成损失。


Many observers believe the American and Israeli governments were behind an earlier attack that destroyed centrifuges at an Iranian nuclear facility.	不少观察家认为此前某次袭击的背后是美国和以色列政府，那次袭击破坏了伊朗某处核设施使用的离心机。


Some say an Iranian government attack destroyed thousands of Saudi Aramco computers.	有人说伊朗政府的某次袭击摧毁了沙特阿美石油公司数以千计的电脑。


Russia is blamed for denial-of-service attacks on Estonia and Georgia.	俄国被指对爱沙尼亚和格鲁吉亚发起服务阻断式攻击。


And just last December, US President Barack Obama attributed an attack on Sony Pictures to the North Korean government.	就在去年十二月，美国总统奥巴马还指责朝鲜政府对索尼影业发起攻击。


Until recently, cyber security was largely the domain of a small community of computer experts.	就在不久前，网络安全还是一小撮电脑专家的专属领域。


When the Internet was created in the 1970s, its members formed a virtual village; everyone knew one another, and together they designed an open system, paying little attention to security.	20世纪70年代互联网创建时，网络成员就组成了一个虚拟社区； 社区里的每个人都互相认识，他们共同设计了一个开放式系统，几乎很少考虑安全问题。


Then, in the early 1990s, the World Wide Web emerged, growing from a few million users then to more than three billion today.	此后，20世纪90年代初诞生了万维网，并从当时的数百万用户迅速发展到如今的30亿。


In little more than a generation, the Internet has become the substrate of the global economy and governance worldwide.	在短短一代人的时间里，互联网已经成为全球经济和治理的基础设施。


Several billion more human users will be added in the next decade, as will tens of billions of devices, ranging from thermostats to industrial control systems (the “Internet of Things”).	今后十年将再增加数十亿真人及成百上千亿从恒温到工业控制系统的设备用户（“物联网”）。


All of this burgeoning interdependence implies vulnerabilities that governments and non-governmental actors can exploit.	政府和非政府力量可以利用这种新兴依存关系所带来的漏洞。


At the same time, we are only beginning to come to terms with the national-security implications of this.	与此同时，我们对国家安全影响的了解才刚刚开始。


Strategic studies of the cyber domain resemble nuclear strategy in the 1950s: analysts are still not clear about the meaning of offense, defense, deterrence, escalation, norms, and arms control.	网络领域的战略研究与20世纪50年代的核战略极为相似：分析师并不十分清楚进攻、防守、威慑、升级、规则和军控的涵义。


The term “cyber war” is used very loosely for a wide range of behaviors, ranging from simple probes, website defacement, and denial of service to espionage and destruction.	“网络战”一词的使用非常随意，可以适用于从简单探查、网站涂改、服务切断到间谍及破坏等各式行为。


In this, it reflects dictionary definitions of “war,” which include any organized effort to “stop or defeat something that is viewed as dangerous or bad” (for example, “war on drugs”).	这反映了“战”这个词的词典定义，包括“阻止或击败危险或邪恶事物”的一切努力。 （如“反毒战”）。


A more useful definition of cyber war is any hostile action in cyberspace that amplifies or is equivalent in effect to major physical violence.	网络战更有用的定义是网络空间内任何强化或效果相当于实际暴力的敌对行为。


Determining whether an action meets that criterion is a decision that only a country’s political leaders can make.	只有国家政治领袖有权决定某项行动是否与该标准相符。


There are four major categories of cyber threats to national security, each with a different time horizon and (in principle) different solutions: cyber war and economic espionage, which are largely associated with states, and cyber crime and cyber terrorism, which are mostly associated with non-state actors.	影响国家安全的主要有四类网络威胁，它们在时间跨度和（主体）应对之策上都有很大区别：包括主要与国家力量相关的网络战和经济间谍活动，以及主要与非国家力量相关的网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义。


The highest costs currently stem from espionage and crime, but the other two may become greater threats over the next decade than they are today.	目前造成损失最大的当属网络间谍活动和网络犯罪，但另外两类可能会在未来十年造成比今天更大的威胁。


Moreover, as alliances and tactics evolve, the categories may increasingly overlap.	此外，联盟和战术的变化可能导致不同类别日趋重叠。