Moreover, the madness of war has been clearly demonstrated to all, and, once the current fighting is over, both sides are now more likely to be cautious about actions that might push their peoples and countries into war once more.	而且，战争的疯狂已经清楚地向所有人展现出来。 一旦目前的战斗结束，双方现在都将在可能把它们的人民和国家再一次推向战争的行动中小心谨慎。


How this war is concluded will likely change the ways in which both Israel and the international community deal with the fundamental national aspirations of Arab peoples.	这一战争结束的方式有可能将改变以色列和国际社会处理阿拉伯人民基本的民族渴望的方式。


Holding Arab land and prisoners indefinitely will no longer be an asset but a terrible burden.	无限制地占领阿拉伯领土和关押囚犯将不再是一项资本，而是一项可怕的负担。


Conventional thinking in the Middle East has largely been built on Israel’s overwhelming military strength, together with the disunity and lack of purpose of Arab leaders.	中东的传统思维大体上建立在以色列的压倒性军事力量以及阿拉伯领导人的不团结和缺乏目标之上。


But, in less than two months, the almost mythic power of the region’s most powerful army has been dented, and Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, has come across as a steadfast and determined leader, in sharp contrast to the usual behavior of heads of Arab government.	但是，在两个月不到的时间内，该地区实力最为强大的军队的几乎是神话般的力量遭到了削弱，而真主党领导人纳斯鲁拉则显得是一位坚定不移的领袖，与阿拉伯各国政府首脑的通常表现形成了鲜明的对比。


The question now is whether this determination can bring about the type of surprising breakthrough to peace that Sadat’s newfound prestige in 1973 yielded.	现在的问题是，这一决心是否能够带来萨达特在1973年重新树立的声望所产生的令人惊讶的和平突破。


Ironically instead of weakening Lebanon, one clear winner of this war is the unity and independent will of Lebanon.	具有讽刺意味的是，这一战争不仅没有削弱黎巴嫩，黎巴嫩的团结和独立意志反而成为赢家。


Whether or not the war in Lebanon has helped or hurt the Palestinians is unclear.	黎巴嫩战争是否帮助还是损害了巴勒斯坦人还不清楚。


Because most media attention has shifted to Lebanon, the Israelis have had a free hand to continue pressing the Palestinians without international protest.	由于大多数媒体的注意力都转移到了黎巴嫩，以色列可以从容不迫地继续给巴勒斯坦人施加压力而不招致国际社会的抗议。


Palestinians continue to be killed on a daily basis not only in Gaza but also in Nablus, in the West Bank.	巴勒斯坦人继续每天都在加沙、纳布卢斯以及西岸遭到杀害。


More than 170 Palestinians have died since the violence began in June.	自从六月暴力发生以来，有170多巴勒斯坦人死亡。


Yet the connection between the two wars has not gone unnoticed.	但是，两场战争之间的联系并不是没有受到注意。


In the United States, President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice see the problems as linked, as does British Prime Minister Tony Blair.	在美国，布什总统和莱斯国务卿认为两者是相关的，英国首相布莱尔也是如此认为。


Indeed, the crises in Lebanon and Gaza have brought about a realization that two festering issues – Arab prisoners in Israel, and Israeli unilateralism – must be resolved if there is to be any hope of a return to the peace process.	实际上，黎巴嫩和加沙的危机让人意识到，如果希望回到和平进程中，关押在以色列的阿拉伯囚犯以及以色列的单边主义这两大痛苦的问题必须得到解决。


Given that both conflicts were triggered by the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers to be traded for Arab prisoners, Israel must now realize that holding Arabs indefinitely in prison can only beget violence.	鉴于两场冲突都是由于绑架以色列士兵来换取阿拉伯囚犯引起的，所以以色列现在必须意识到无限期地关押阿拉伯人只会带来暴力。


Israel’s National Security Advisor, Giora Eiland, appears to have recognized this even before the violence began.	以色列的国家安全顾问埃朗德似乎在暴力开始前就已经意识到这一点。


In May, he is said to have advised Israeli Prime Minister Yehud Olmert that Israel should hand over the disputed Sheba Farms area on the border with Lebanon and Syria, as well as returning Lebanese prisoners.	据说他在五月份向以色列总理奥尔默特进言说，以色列应当归还位于黎巴嫩和叙利亚边境有争议的谢巴农场并且归还黎巴嫩囚犯。


Olmert reportedly did not see the need.	据说奥尔默特并不认为有必要。


But holding 300 Lebanese and nearly 10,000 Palestinians – all of the first group and many of the second group without charge or trial – has proven to be a major source of irritation to the Arab peoples of the region.	受到关押的300名黎巴嫩人都没有受到指控或者审判，将近1000名巴勒斯坦囚犯中许多人也是如此。 但是，这已经是该地区阿拉伯人不满情绪的主要根源。


One group of prisoners that will likely benefit from the current situation are Jordanians held in Israeli jails.	有可能从当前局势中受益的囚犯可能是关押在以色列监狱中的约旦人。


Jordan, a US ally and one of the two Arab countries with a peace agreement with Israel, previously failed to secure the release of its 30 prisoners.	约旦是美国的盟国，也是和以色列签定和平协议的两个阿拉伯国家之一。 它先前未能使其30名囚犯获得释放。


They are now likely to be the first ones set free.	他们现在可能是最早获得释放的囚犯。


Important as they are, however, the prisoners are not the crux of the matter.	但是，尽管囚犯们很重要，他们还不是问题的核心。


The real issue is the unilateralism that has been adopted by the major parties that have ruled Israel.	真正的问题是以色列的各主要执政党派所奉行的单边主义。


Both the uncoordinated withdrawals from south Lebanon (by the Labor party after 22 years of occupation) and from Gaza (by Likud after 39 years of occupation) proved that you can’t simply evacuate an area and forget about it.	两个没有协调的撤军，即从南黎巴嫩(占领22年后工党决定)以及从加沙(占领39年后利库德集团决定)撤军证明，不能简单地撤离某个地区并把它抛在脑后。


The population left behind must have secure governments and institutions in place.	遗留下来的人民必须有安全的政府以及机构。


On the most basic level, for example, the people of south Lebanon needed maps of where Israel had laid mines, but these were never provided.	例如，在最基本的层面上，南黎巴嫩的人民需要以色列埋设地雷地区的地图，但是却从来没有提供。


The unilateralism that Israelis overwhelmingly voted for in their recent election is based on the idea that security can somehow be achieved by erecting physical walls and barriers.	以色列人在最近一次选举中压倒性地投票要求单边主义是建立在这样一个观念基础之上，也就是可以通过建立实物围墙和障碍保障安全。


The barrage of Hezbollah and Hamas rockets has shown the folly of such thinking.	真主党和哈马斯的火箭弹连发表明此类观念的愚蠢。


And, although the West Bank has not been used to launch rockets against Israel, there is no reason why the Palestinians who reside there will not resort to such weapons if walls continue to be built deep inside their territories and Israel continues to act with arrogance towards them.	而且，尽管西岸被用来发射针对以色列的火箭，但是，如果以色列继续在那里的纵深地带修建隔离墙并傲慢地对待他们，那么，居住在那里的巴勒斯坦人没有理由不使用这样的武器。


Soldiers are the first to recognize that military power is of limited value in achieving long-term peace.	士兵们首先意识到军事实力在实现长期和平上价值有限。


It is past time that political leaders on both sides, especially moderate ones, also come to understand this.	双方的领导人，特别是温和派领导人也早应这样理解。


They need to work together through negotiations to solve problems that simply cannot and should not be solved by brute force.	他们需要通过谈判合作解决问题，这些问题无法也不应当用暴力解决。


Let Developing Nations Rule	让发展中国家来统治


CAMBRIDGE – There is a silver lining for developing nations in the present crisis, for they will emerge with a much bigger say in the institutions that govern economic globalization.	剑桥－在当前的危机中，也有对发展中国家有利的一面，因为它们会以在支配经济全球化的制度机构中拥有更大影响力的姿态出现。


Once the dust settles, China, India, Brazil, South Korea, and a handful of other “emerging” nations will be able to exercise greater influence over the way that multilateral economic institutions are run, and will be in a better position to push for reforms that reflect their interests.	一旦金融危机尘埃落定，中国、印度、巴西、韩国以及其他一些“新兴”国家将有能力对多边经济机构管理的方式产生更大的影响，并且在推进反映它们利益的改革中处于更为有利的地位。


There are two related reasons for this.	对以上的论断有两个相互关联的理由。


First, the financial crisis has weakened the United States and Europe.	首先，金融危机已经削弱了美国和欧洲的实力。


They will be unwilling or unable to provide the kind of leadership that sustained multilateralism in the decades that followed World War II.	美国和欧洲将会不愿意或没有能力提供在第二次世界大战后几十年里维持多边主义的那种领导。


Developing nations will have to step up to fill the gap.	发展中国家将不得不进来填补空缺。


Second, the relative weight and importance of developing nations in the global economy will have risen even more.	第二，发展中国家在全球经济中的相对影响力和重要性会进一步增强。


Many of the West’s leading financial institutions – those that have not been nationalized – as well some important industrial enterprises, will remain at the mercy of capital from China or the Gulf states.	许多西方重要的金融机构——那些没有被国有化的金融机构——以及一些重要的工业企业，会完全受到来自中国或海湾国家的资本的支配。


In trade, the current round of global negotiations has demonstrated that if rich nations want developing nations to cooperate, they will need to let them shape the rules of the game.	在贸易方面，当前的全球贸易谈判回合已经显示，如果富裕国家希望发展中国家合作，它们就需要让发展中国家制定游戏规则。


To make the best of this outcome, developing nations will have to have a good sense of their interests and priorities.	为了充分利用金融危机的这一结果，发展中国家必须对其利益和优先任务有一个良好的判断力。


So, what should they seek?	那么，发展中国家应该寻求什么呢？


First, they should push for new rules that make financial crises less likely and their consequences less severe.	首先，发展中国家应该推进降低金融危机发生可能性以及金融危机后果严重程度的新规则。


Left to their own devices, global financial markets provide too much credit at too cheap a price in good times, and too little credit in bad times.	让全球金融市场自行其是，这些市场就会在经济情况良好的时候，以过于低廉的价格提供了过量的信贷，在经济情况不好的时候提供过少的信贷。


The only effective response is counter-cyclical capital-account management: discouraging foreign borrowing during economic upswings and preventing capital flight during downswings.	对此唯一有效的回应是抗周期的资本项目管理：在经济发展高涨 的时候阻止外国借款，在经济发展转弱时防止资本外逃。


So, instead of frowning on capital controls and pushing for financial openness, the International Monetary Fund should be in the business of actively helping countries implement such policies.	所以，国际货币基金组织不应该推进金融开放和反对资本管制，而应该从事积极帮助国家实施这些政策的活动。


It should also enlarge its emergency credit lines to act more as a lender of last resort to developing nations hit by financial whiplash.	国际货币基金组织也应该扩大其紧急贷款额度，以更好地充当受金融危机打击的发展中国家的最终贷款人的角色。


The crisis is an opportunity to achieve greater transparency on all fronts, including banking practices in rich countries that facilitate tax evasion in developing nations.	危机是在所有领域——包括便利在发展中国家逃税的富裕国家的银行业务——取得更大透明度的机会。


Wealthy citizens in the developing world evade more than $100 billion worth of taxes in their home countries each year, thanks to bank accounts in Zurich, Miami, London, and elsewhere.	由于在苏黎世、迈阿密、伦敦以及其他地区的银行账户，发展中国家的富裕国民每年在自己的祖国逃避了超过1000亿美元的税款。


Developing countries’ governments should request and be given information about their nationals’ accounts.	发展中国家政府应该要求获得这些银行账户的有关信息，并且银行账户所在国应该给予发展中国家有关它们的国民的银行账户的信息。


Developing nations should also push for a Tobin tax – a tax on global foreign currency transactions.	发展中国家也应该奋力争取托宾税（Tobin tax）的征收——它是一种对全球外汇交易征收的税种。


Set at a low enough level – say, 0.25% – such a tax would have little adverse effect on the global economy while raising considerable revenue.	将该税税率设定在一个足够低的水平——例如，0. 25%——这种税就会增加相当可观的税收，但是对全球经济产生的不利影响非常小。


At worst, the efficiency costs would be minor; at best, the tax would discourage excessive short-term speculation.	在最坏的情况下，该税的效率成本是微小的； 在最好的情况下，该税可以阻碍过度的短期投机。


The revenues collected – easily hundreds of billions of dollars annually – could be spent on global public goods such as development assistance, vaccines for tropical diseases, and the greening of technologies in use in the developing world.	征收托宾税（Tobin tax）所得的税收——很容易就达到每年几千亿美元——可以花在诸如发展支援、热带疾病疫苗以及使在发展中国家使用的技术变得环保这样的全球公益事业上。


The administrative difficulties in implementing a Tobin tax are not insurmountable, as long as all major advanced countries go along.	只要所有的主要发达国家都支持托宾税（Tobin tax），实施它的行政障碍就是可以克服的。


It would then be possible to get offshore financial centers to cooperate by threatening to isolate them.	然后，就可能通过威胁要孤立离岸金融中心的方式，使它们合作。


Developing nations also need to enshrine the notion of “policy space” in the World Trade Organization.	发展中国家也需要将 “政策空间”的理念庄严地纳入世界贸易组织。


The goal would be to ensure that developing countries can employ the kind of trade and industrial policies needed to restructure and diversify their economies and set the stage for economic growth.	这样做的目的是，保证发展中国家能够利用调整和多样化其经济以及确定经济增长阶段所需的贸易和工业政策。


All countries that have successfully globalized have used such policies, many of which (e.g., subsidies, domestic-content rules, reverse engineering of patented products) are currently not allowed under WTO rules.	所有成功实现全球化的国家都使用了这样的政策，这些政策中的许多政策（例如，补贴，本国含量规则，对专利产品的反向工程）现在在世界贸易组织规则下，都是不允许的。


Policy space is also required to ensure that important social and political ends – such as food security – are compatible with international trade rules.	政策空间也需要保证重要的社会和政治目的——例如食品安全——与国际贸易规则一致。


Developing nations should argue that recognizing these economic and political realities makes the global trade regime not weaker and more susceptible to protectionism, but healthier and more sustainable.	发展中国家应该坚持认为，承认这些经济和政治现实不仅没有削弱全球贸易体制并使其更容易受到贸易保护主义的侵害，反而使全球贸易体制更健康，更具有可持续性。


But with increased power comes increased responsibility.	但是，伴随着权力增加的是义务的增加。


Developing nations will need to be more understanding and responsive to legitimate concerns in rich countries, and be more willing to pay for some global public goods.	发展中国家应该对富裕国家的合理担忧，更加谅解并做出更积极的回应，并愿意为一些全球公益事业支付费用。


Capital-exporting developing nations should be willing to accept greater transparency in the operation of sovereign wealth funds and pledge not to use them for political purposes.	资本输出的发展中国家应该愿意接受对其主权财富基金运作更大透明度的要求，并保证不将其用于政治目的。


The largest developing nations – China, India, and Russia – will need to shoulder some of the burden of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.	最大的发展中国家——中国、印度以及俄罗斯——将有必要承担一些减少温室气体排放的义务。


Similarly, developing nations must understand that policy space is a two-way street.	同样，发展中国家必须明白，政策空间是双向的。


In countries like the US, where the middle class has reaped few of the benefits of globalization in the last quarter-century, trade policy will be under severe pressure to provide some redress.	在像美国这样的国家，在过去25年里，中产阶级从全球化中得到的好处非常少，所以贸易政策有非常大的压力要对此提供一些补偿。


President-elect Barack Obama made the plight of the middle class a central plank of his successful campaign.	当选总统巴拉克·奥巴马将中产阶级的困境作为其成功竞选的主要政策纲领。


His chief economic adviser, Larry Summers, has also been vocal of late on globalization’s adverse impact on workers.	奥巴马的首席经济顾问劳伦斯·萨默斯(Larry Summers)，最近也发表了全球化对工人的不利影响的看法。


It will not do much for good for developing countries to raise the specter of protectionism each time such concerns are voiced.	当每次有人表达上述忧虑的时候，发展中国家就增强对保护主义的担忧，对它们是没有多少回好处的。


Political and economic reality demands a more nuanced and cooperative approach.	政治和经济现实要求一个更差异化、更协作化的解决途径。


Developing countries should say no to obvious trade protectionism, but they should be willing to negotiate to avoid regulatory races to the bottom in such areas as labor standards or corporate taxation.	发展中国家应该对明显的贸易保护主义说不，但是它们也应该愿意就避免在诸如劳工标准或企业税收这样的领域的监管竞次进行谈判。


This is in their long-term self-interest.	这符合它们自身的长期利益。


Without support from the middle classes of rich nations, it will be difficult to maintain a global trade regime as open as the one we have had in recent years.	没有来自富裕国家中产阶级的支持，很难维持像我们在最近几年拥有的那样开放的全球贸易体制。


Let’s Get Real About Money	认真对待货币


Throughout the world, people suffer from a serious perception error that has inhibited them from taking concrete steps to protect themselves from inflation or deflation.	在世界范围内，人们都深受一个严重的误解之苦。 这一误解妨碍了他们采取切实步骤防范通货膨胀或通货紧缩。


The error is called the “money illusion ” – the belief that a nominal unit of currency is the best measure of value, even though its real value is unstable.	这一误解被称为“货币错觉”，也就是相信，货币的名义单位是价值的最佳衡量标准，即使实际价值并不稳定。


Historically, failure to protect against inflation or deflation has helped spur calamitous outcomes.	历史上，防范通货膨胀或通货紧缩不力造成了灾难性后果。


When spectacular inflation hit Germany in 1923, it wiped out the real value of the (unhedged and unindexed) life savings and social-security benefits of millions of people, whose anger contributed to the rise of Nazism.	当1923年突如其来的通货膨胀打击德国时，数以百万计的人的毕生积蓄和社会保障福利（未加以套期保值和未与指数挂钩）的实际价值化为乌有。 德国人的愤怒造成了纳粹主义的崛起。


Similarly, spectacular deflation in many countries around the world in the early 1930’s magnified the real value of (unhedged and unindexed) debts, leading to millions of defaults and widespread bank failures.	同样，二十世纪三十年代早期世界范围内许多国家大规模的通货紧缩放大了债务（未加以套期保值和未与指数挂钩）的实际价值，导致数以百万计的违约和大规模的银行倒闭。


Deflation also magnified the real value of wages and salaries, thereby fueling layoffs and unemployment.	通货紧缩还放大了工资的实际价值，因此加剧了解雇和失业。


Failure to hedge or index brought us the Great Depression.	未能套期保值或者与指数挂钩给我们带来了经济大萧条。


Much of Japan’s economic malaise in recent years also reflects (unhedged and unindexed) debts magnified by deflation since 1999.	近年来日本的许多经济问题反映的是1999年以来通货紧缩所放大的债务（未加以套期保值和未与指数挂钩）。


In 2003, an IMF study raised the specter of Japan-like problems around the world, and listed thirteen countries, including, China, Germany, Singapore, and Poland, with a moderate to high risk of deflation.	2003年，国际货币基金组织的一份研究提出了波及全球、日本式的幽灵般问题，同时指出13个国家，包括中国、德国、新加坡以及波兰，存在从中等到高等不等的通货紧缩风险。


Yet, in the face of overwhelming evidence of the importance of inflation or deflation risk, most people – even in countries that have been warned – generally still have not taken steps to protect themselves.	但是，大多数人，甚至在那些受到警告的国家的人们在通货膨胀或通货紧缩风险重要性的不容质疑的证据面前通常并未采取措施加以防范。


Given widespread apathy about changes in consumer prices, the modest success of a new market to hedge inflation risk, the European inflation futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), is noteworthy.	大众对于消费者价格变化无动于衷。 有鉴于此，芝加哥期货交易所欧洲通胀期货市场作为一个新的防范通货膨胀风险的交易市场所取得的适度成功是值得关注。


Since September, this new market has traded the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, or HICP – a contract that traders call the “hiccup.”	自九月份以来，这一新的交易市场对欧元区消费者物价协调指数（简称HICP）进行交易。


By purchasing or selling it, companies and individuals can protect themselves against losses stemming from changes in the value of their currency.	HICP是一种合同，交易员称之为“暂停跌价”。 公司或个人通过买入或卖出HICP，可以防范由货币价值变化而导致的损失。


The open interest recently was 355 contracts, with a notional value of €355 million.	最近的公开权益是355个合同，理论价值为3亿5500万欧元。


This is a real beginning, and we should encourage such contracts to grow in order to help billions of people hedge their inflation and deflation risks.	这是一个坚实的开端，而且我们应当鼓励发展此类合同以便帮助数以十亿计的人们防范通货膨胀和通货紧缩风险。


But this promising start follows a long trail of failures to create inflation futures, owing to the public’s lack of interest.	但是，由于公众并无兴趣，经历了一长串建立通胀期货交易失败后才有了这一充满前途的开端。


This failure can be explained only by the money illusion, which ultimately is connected with what psychologists call “framing.”	只有货币错觉才能解释这一失败，而货币错觉最终又与心理学家所称的“构筑框架”相关。


How a concept is framed, the context and associations with which it is presented, affect human judgments enormously.	人们如何构筑概念以及表述概念的背景和联系深刻地影响人们的判断。


A tax called a “death tax” is regarded very differently from a tax called an “inheritance tax,” even though the two are really identical.	尽管“死亡税”与“遗产税”其实是一码事，但是人们对这两种税收的看法相距甚远。


The money illusion occurs because we are accustomed to economic values almost always being framed in terms of money.	由于我们习惯于用货币的标准来框定经济价值，因此产生了货币错觉。


For years, I have been arguing that national governments should take some simple steps to reframe economic quantities and help the public overcome the money illusion.	多年来，我一直主张各国政府应该采取某些简单的措施来重新框定经济数量并帮助公众克服货币错觉。


They could merely create an indexed unit of account to replace currency for measuring economic quantities and defining prices.	政府可以建立一个与指数挂钩的帐户单位来取代货币用以衡量经济数量和确定价格即可。


The unit would be nothing more than a consumer price index, given a simple name, and published daily, so that people could use this unit and its name to quote prices in real terms.	这一单位只不过是一个消费者物价指数，名称简单，每天公布，这样人们就可以使用这一单位及名称来以实际价格报价。


This would help reframe public thinking, which is all a government really needs to do.	这将会帮助重新形成公众思考，而这正是政府所需要做的事情。


It would be easy and virtually costless.	做起来很容易，而且几乎没有什么成本。


Indexed units of account are not a new idea; Chile’s government led the way in 1967 by creating the Unidad de Fomento (UF), and other Latin American countries have followed suit.	与指数挂钩的帐户单位并非前所未有。 1967年智利政府通过建立Unidad de Fomento（UF）而开创先河。


Despite the unit’s technical-sounding name, people in Chile seem to have learned to think in terms of the UF instead of the peso for important contracts.	其他拉美国家也效仿。 尽管这一单位的名称听起来技术性很强，但是智利人民看起来已经学会用UF考虑重要的合同，而不是比索。


Following Chile’s example, governments also could redefine the tax system in terms of the units of account rather than currency.	其他政府可以仿效智利的先例，重新以帐户单位而不是货币来重新确定税收制度。


That way, people who fill out tax forms would have to learn the units of account.	这样，人们填写税收报表时就要学习帐户单位了。


As a side benefit, the tax system would be automatically, fully, and transparently indexed to inflation.	作为附带的效益，税收制度将会自动地、完全地并且透明地与通货膨胀挂钩。


In my 2003 book The New Financial Order, I proposed that such units be called “baskets,” since a consumer price index is the price of a representative market basket of goods and services.	在我的2003年的<<金融新秩序>>一书中，我提议把这样的单位称为“篮子”。 这是因为消费者物价指数是具有代表性的商品和服务市场化篮子价格。


That name is very simple, and it conveys a new conceptual framing: by promising to pay someone so many baskets at a future date, one is promising to pay in market baskets of goods and services.	这个名称十分简单，而且传递一个新的概念性框架，那就是，通过保证在未来某一日期支付某人一定数量的篮子，实际上是保证支付商品和服务的市场化篮子。


Of course, the actual payment will be made in ordinary currency at the contemporaneous exchange rate, based on the consumer price index, between baskets and the currency.	当然，实际支付是根据消费者物价指数在篮子和货币间的同期汇率以普通货币进行的。


What if people really got used to expressing quantities in baskets?	如果人们果真习惯于用篮子表达数量又会如何呢？


Wouldn’t futures contracts sound completely different if they were reframed as contracts for ”baskets” instead of “hiccups?”	如果将期货交易合同重新框定为“篮子”而不是“暂停跌价”，它们听起来难道不会完全不同呢？


A futures market for the complete market basket that consumers buy certainly rings with importance.	消费者购买的完全为市场篮子的期货交易市场必定非常重要。


Ultimately, the advance of information technology will be the salvation of ideas like the CME’s inflation futures market and indexed units of account.	信息技术的进步最终将拯救芝加哥期货交易所的通胀期货市场和与指数挂钩的帐户单位的构想。


Inflation futures appear to be gaining hold in part because the new contract is traded on an efficient electronic market (the Globex system) that allows futures contracts to get going without the initial splash that is required by open-outcry pit-based futures markets.	通胀期货交易的地位看起来得到了巩固，部分原因是新的合同是在高效率的电子市场（Globex系统）进行交易的。 这一电子市场允许合同进行交易，无需基于交易场地的、大声叫嚷的期货市场的最初轰动。


Indeed, this is also why an American exchange can make a market for European inflation; with new information technology, it no longer matters where people live.	实际上，这也是为什么一个美国的交易所可以为欧洲通胀期货提供市场。 有了新的信息技术，人们居住在何处无关紧要。


This should help popularize indexed units of account, too, since computer technology can now handle all the calculations involved in translating them into currency.	由于计算机技术现在可以处理所有转换为货币的计算，这也应当可以帮助普及与指数挂钩的帐户单位。


The sooner this happens, the sooner one more scourge of financial instability will be behind us.	这种情况出现越早，我们就越早脱离另一场金融危机的祸害。


Letter from Palestine	巴勒斯坦来信


Are Israelis and Palestinians really ready to strike a peace agreement?	以色列人和巴勒斯坦人真的为达成和平协议做好准备了吗？


Events have certainly moved at a brisk pace in recent months, with one obstacle after another to a lasting deal seeming to come down.	随着达成持久协议的障碍一个接一个地被克服，形势在最近几个月里进展迅速。


Yasir Arafat’s death was followed by the choice of his successor in a direct election with universal suffrage, which was accompanied by Israel’s decision – one unique in the world – to help, not hinder the democratic process in territories it occupies.	阿拉法特的去世之后，他的继任者也通过全民投票的直选方式产生。 而以色列也在此间做出令人刮目的决定—协助而不是阻挠被占领土的民主进程。


As a result, no one doubts Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s legitimacy.	其结果是无人会质疑巴勒斯坦民族权力机构主席马哈茂德·阿巴斯的合法性。


Moreover, with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s announcement of his intention to withdraw Israel’s army unilaterally from Gaza, the occupation itself is once again an open question, offering opportunities for further progress.	再者，随着以色列总理沙龙宣布其将军队单方面撤出加沙地带的意图，占领本身也再一次成为一个公开的问题，并为形势的进一步进展创造了机会。


Indeed, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s support for the Gaza withdrawal has helped open the door to real negotiations.	的确，埃及总统穆巴拉克对加沙撤军的支持也帮助真正的谈判打开了大门。


Such an impressive sequence of events has not been seen for a long time in that troubled region.	这种良性发展的事态在这一麻烦不断的地区已经久违了。


As a result, many – in and outside the Middle East – have become optimistic again.	因此，许多中东内外的人士又变得乐观起来。


Even Sharon ventures a few favorable comments, and American diplomats express visible sighs of relief that progress toward peace can at last be made.	甚至连沙龙也冒昧地发表了一些赞许之辞。 这一和平进程也使美国的外交官们明显地松了一口气。


I can attest to the gathering momentum towards peace, having just returned from Palestine, where I led a nearly five-week mission of European Union observers, the largest ever put in place by the EU.	我亲身体验了这一不断向好的和平进程。 我刚从巴勒斯坦返回。


The mission was 260-strong on the day of the election and the counting of the vote, while 40 of us had been there for the whole five-week period.	我领导着欧盟有史以来最大的一支观察员使团在那里待了近五周。 在大选和选票统计的当天，使团的总人数超过了260人，而我们中的40人在整整五周的时间里都待在巴勒斯坦。


My testimony about the election is categorical: the circumstances were difficult, but the voting was unconstrained and without cheating.	我对大选的证言是绝对直观的：环境虽然困难，但投票没有受到干扰，也没有舞弊现象。


Given the conditions, the 60% voter turnout was astonishing.	在当时的情况下，60%的选民投票率实属难能可贵。


There can be no doubt that Abbas was democratically elected.	阿巴斯毫无疑问是由民主选举选出的。


Nor is there any doubt that the Palestinian people made a choice for democracy, which entails a choice for a negotiated peace with Israel.	同样毋庸置疑的是巴勒斯坦人民做出了民主的选择，而这一选择又必然意味着与以色列通过谈判达成和平的抉择。


But this leaves out the terrorists, who have not made this choice.	但这却将志不同，道不合的恐怖分子排除在外。


They are not numerous, but they are very dangerous.	虽然他们并非人多势众，但却危险之至。


Only genuine progress towards a just peace settlement will neutralize them as a political force.	只有向着公平的和平解决方案的实质性进展才会将他们归化为一支政治力量。


There is no question that current conditions present a unique window of opportunity.	毫无疑问，目前的形势提供了一次绝无仅有的机遇。


But we must keep in mind the major difficulties that can limit our ability to seize this opportunity, and the international community must make these difficulties very clear to both parties.	但我们必须时刻意识到那些可能会限制我们把握机遇的主要困难。 国际社会也必须让(巴以)双方都清楚地认识到这些困难。


The first difficulty is that, although Sharon evidently intends to go through with his military withdrawal from Gaza, he is vague about what he wants to achieve in future negotiations.	第一点困难在于：虽然沙龙有实施从加沙撤军的明确意向，但他对在未来的谈判中要达到的目标却闪烁其辞。


Indeed, he has never made the slightest allusion to the idea of including the West Bank and Jerusalem in such negotiations.	的确，他从未对把（约旦河）西岸及耶路撒冷纳入谈判中给出丝毫的暗示。


But, for the Palestinians, there can be no negotiations that do not include both issues.	然而，对于巴勒斯坦人来说，这两个问题是谈判的前提。


The second difficulty concerns the fact that Sharon has always appeared to believe that it is within the means of the Palestinian Authority to eradicate all terrorism arising from Palestinian territories and aimed at Israel.	第二点困难是沙龙显然一贯认为铲除巴勒斯坦领土上针对以色列的恐怖主义活动是巴勒斯坦民族权力机构的分内之事。


However, all external observers know very well that this is not the case, even if Abbas can undoubtedly succeed in reducing the level and number of attacks.	但是，所有外部的观察家们都清楚地知道即便阿巴斯确实能够降低恐怖活动的数量和水平，事实也并非如此。


In order for the Palestinian people as a whole to cease to glorify, support, and shelter terrorists, they need to discover real hope for a new life for themselves.	为了让巴勒斯坦人民停止对恐怖分子的美化、支持和庇护，他们必须为自己寻找到新生活的真正希望。


That, in turn, depends on an economic recovery in the occupied territories and a belief that concrete steps toward a negotiated political solution are being taken.	而这在很大程度上就要依靠被占领土上的经济复苏和（双方）正在为达成谈判下的政治解决方案采取切实的步骤的信念。


The creation of such hope now depends exclusively on Israel, which must act immediately to boost the many Palestinians who yearn for peace, rather than insisting on a total disappearance of terrorism.	能否创造这样的希望完全取决于以色列。 它必须立即采取行动帮助许许多多渴望和平的巴勒斯坦人，而不是死抱着让恐怖主义完全消失的观点不放。


Delay will only retard terrorism’s disappearance.	拖延只会给恐怖主义喘息的机会。


The third difficulty concerns the fact that, on both sides, most religious authorities, rabbis and imams alike, have maintained a hard-line stance.	第三个难点，是双方的宗教领导层，不论是拉比们还是阿訇们，都仍然坚持强硬的立场。


They continue to preach that the respective “taboos” of their communities, the very issues that block all efforts to make peace – in particular, the status of Jerusalem and the right of “return” to Israel for Palestinian refugees – are untouchable and non-negotiable.	他们继续鼓吹各自社会的“禁忌”。 正是这些阻挠一切和平努力的难题—特别是耶路撒冷的地位和巴勒斯坦难民“重返”以色列的权利—成为了不容谈判的禁区。


To make these religious authorities acknowledge their responsibility is a duty that all of international civil society, including religious leaders, must embrace.	让双方的宗教领导层承认自己的责任是包括宗教领袖们在内的国际民间社会必须承担的义务。


None of this is undoable. All of it will be demanding.	这些困难并非无法解决，然而解决它们也决非易事。


But a chance to achieve real, lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians has clearly arrived.	但在巴以之间达成真正、持久和平的机会就在眼前。


We must all seize this moment.	我们所有人都必须把握时机。


Let the Doha Round Fail	让多哈回合归于失败


Imagine that the world’s trade ministers simply walk away from their forthcoming Hong Kong meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) with this simple declaration: “We failed to reach an agreement; we’ll try to do better next time.”	世贸组织香港回合会议即将开始，让我们设想一下如果来自世界各地的贸易部长们离开谈判桌时做出如下声明：“我们这次没能达成协议，我们下次会争取做得更好。


This would bring the so-called Doha “Development” Round to an unsuccessful conclusion, but it would be no disaster.	”如果真是这样所谓的多哈“发展”回合谈判就会以失败而告终，但这并不是世界末日。


Talk to World Bank and WTO officials, and you will get an earful of inflated claims about the benefits that a successful Doha round would bring.	与世界银行和世贸组织的官员交谈，你的耳朵会被多哈谈判成功如何意义深远的夸张言辞所塞满。


These officials often make it sound as if the livelihood of hundreds of millions of poor people in developing nations hangs in the balance.	这些官员的言谈时常令人感到谈判结果关乎发展中国家数以亿计贫困人口的命运。


Look closer at these claims, and you find that they are built on sand.	但如果仔细推敲这种说法，就会发现它们根本没有依据。


The World Bank’s most recent estimate is that complete trade liberalization (including in manufactures and by developing nations themselves) would produce a net gain to the developing world of half a percentage point of their income.	世界银行最新预测：彻底的贸易自由化（包括制造业和发展中国家自身的自由化）能带给发展中国家的纯收益仅占其现有收入的半个百分点。


But that hasn’t stopped the Bank doing its best to hide this meager impact behind impressive-sounding claims.	但这样的预测并没有妨碍世界银行竭尽全力用令人鼓舞的言辞来掩盖这种微不足道的影响。


The fact is that the world economy is more open today than it has ever been, and will remain so even if the Doha talks collapse.	事实是今天的世界经济比过去任何时候都要开放，即便多哈谈判失败这一点也不会改变。


Most developing nations have opened themselves significantly to foreign trade and no longer employ the most damaging policies of the past (such as quantitative restrictions on imports).	多数发展中国家已经在很大程度上实现了向对外贸易开放，放弃了过去那种最为有害的贸易政策（比如对进口采取数量限制）。


The political balance in these countries has tilted decisively in favor of pro-trade groups with an outward-looking orientation.	这些国家的政治天平已经明显向支持贸易的集团倾斜，采取了外向型的经济导向。


In the advanced countries, trade barriers for manufactured goods and many services are at a historic low.	而在发达国家，对于制成品和很多服务的贸易壁垒也降到了历史低点。


It would be hard to identify any poor country whose development prospects are seriously blocked by restrictions on market access abroad.	很难再找到哪个贫困国家的发展前景受到国外市场准入限制的严重影响。


Any country with a sensible development strategy has the opportunity to make its economy grow, with assistance from trade.	任何采取理智发展策略的国家都有机会借助贸易实现经济发展。


But what about agriculture?	但农业领域的情况如何？


Don’t the farm subsidies and other forms of support in the United States and European Union undercut the livelihood of millions of poor farmers?	美国和欧盟的农业补贴和其它形式的援助难道没有损害成百上千万贫困农民的生计？


Wouldn’t phasing them out make a big dent in world poverty?	逐步淘汰农业补贴会不会大大减少全球贫困？


The reality is that the global impact of agricultural liberalization in rich countries would be relatively small and highly uneven.	现实是富裕国家农业自由化对全球的影响不仅相对较小，而且很不均匀。


These policies may hurt agricultural producers elsewhere, but they also benefit poor urban consumers.	这样的政策可能损害了其它地方农业生产者的利益，但也使贫困的城市消费者从中受益。


The balance depends on the poverty profile of individual countries and on whether they are food exporters or importers.	个中的平衡取决于一个国家的贫困状况，也取决于该国是食品出口国还是进口国。


Of course, there would be some big gainers from agricultural reform, but they are chiefly consumers and taxpayers in rich countries.	当然，农业改革会使很多人从中受益，但受益者主要是富裕国家的消费者和纳税人。


Some large middle-income food exporters (such as Brazil and Argentina) would also reap gains.	有些中等收入的大规模食品出口国（比如巴西和阿根廷）也会从中受益。


Such outcomes are not unimportant, but they represent a far cry from the picture painted by free-trade fundamentalists.	这样的结果并不是不重要，但却与自由贸易信奉者所描绘的景象相去甚远。


Indeed the only serious risk from the Doha round’s “failure” is that rich countries would take their own rhetoric seriously and react in unproductive ways that prove self-fulfilling.	实际上，多哈谈判“失败”唯一的真正危险是：富裕国家会相信自己的花言巧语，从而做出实现自我预言的错误反应。


The US, in particular, could intensify its pursuit of bilateral deals, by which it is able to impose increasingly inappropriate policy priorities on smaller nations.	特别是美国可能会加紧订立双边协议，并借此把越来越不恰当的政策优势强加到小国身上。


The silver lining in an amicable break-up of the trade talks is that it would give negotiators a chance to focus on issues that are of much greater significance to developing nations.	本轮贸易谈判无疾而终也有积极的一面：那就是谈判者们将有机会关注对发展中国家真正重要的问题。


The next time around, trade talks should take up the two most glaring omissions to date:	下一轮贸易谈判应该弥补迄今为止两个最明显的疏漏：


A comprehensive effort to enhance the mobility of temporary workers from poor countries to rich countries.	全面努力增加临时工从贫穷国家向富裕国家的流动。


This is where the gains from liberalization would be the largest, because it is here that the barriers are the highest.	上述领域的自由化收益最大，因为这里的壁垒最为严重。


Creation of a “policy space” for developing countries in WTO agreements.	在世贸组织协定中为发展中国家创造“政策空间”。


Developing nations’ pursuit of growth-promoting trade and industrial policies are increasingly running afoul of restrictive WTO rules.	发展中国家实行促进发展的贸易和产业政策与限制性世贸规则之间的冲突越来越明显。


Growth superstars such as South Korea, Taiwan, China, and many others would not have been able to adopt the growth strategies that they did if today’s WTO strictures had applied to them.	如果受到今天世贸规则的责难，那么韩国、台湾、中国和很多其它国家就无法采取它们今天采用的发展政策。


Trade officials must acknowledge the lessons from these countries’ experience and reform the rules accordingly.	贸易官员必须从这些国家的发展中吸取教训，对规则进行相应的改革。


There remains a possibility that trade negotiators will patch together a last-minute deal in Hong Kong and emerge claiming victory.	贸易谈判者们也可能在所剩不多的时间里在香港拼凑一个协定，而后宣布谈判以胜利告终。


We will then end up with an agreement that will have been wildly oversold and is certain to lead to disappointment in the future – especially in developing nations.	这样的协议名不副实、将来注定会使所有人，特别是发展中国家大失所望。


We will also have given up the opportunity to have a real development round next time around.	倘若果真如此，我们还将失去下一轮进行真正意义上的发展回合谈判的绝好机会。


Sometimes there is no success like failure.	有时候失败就是最好的胜利。


The Doha round is a case in point.	多哈谈判就属于这种情况。


Let the Good Times Roll Again?	好时光再现？


CAMBRIDGE – Goldman Sachs announced this month plans to provide bonuses at record levels, and there are widespread expectations that bonuses and pay in many other firms will rise substantially this year.	剑桥——高盛本月宣布将发放前所未有的高额奖金，与此同时，人们预期，许多其他金融公司的奖金和工资今年将会大幅上升。


Should the good times start rolling again so soon?	华尔街的好时光如此之快就到来了吗？


Not without reform.	如果不进行改革，当然这是不可能的。


Indeed, one key lesson of the financial crisis is that an overhaul of executive compensation must be high on the policy agenda.	因为，金融危机的一个重要教训就是 高管薪酬必须被提上政策议程。


Indeed, pay arrangements were a major contributing factor to the excessive risk-taking by financial institutions that helped bring about the financial crisis.	事实上，现存的薪酬安排是推动金融机构过度投机，从而导致本次金融危机爆发的一个主要诱因。


By rewarding executives for risky behavior, and by insulating them from some of the adverse consequences of that behavior, pay arrangements for financial-sector bosses produced perverse incentives, encouraging them to gamble.	金融机构通过激励高管从事高风险的交易而且不用承担这些行为导致的不利后果，对金融部门老板们的薪酬安排产生了不正常的激励，鼓励他们去赌博


One major factor that induced excessive risk-taking is that firms’ standard pay arrangements reward executives for short-term gains, even when those gains are subsequently reversed.	引发过度投机的一个主要因素是：公司的薪酬标准架构是以高管的短期收益来衡量，即使这些收益随后被亏损掉也没有关系。


Although the financial sector lost more than half of its stock-market value during the last five years, executives were still able to cash out, prior to the stock market implosion, large amounts of equity compensation and bonus compensation.	尽管金融部门在过去的5年内市值损失了一半多，但是高管们仍能在股市崩盘前卖掉大量的股权套现和获得丰厚奖金。


Such pay structures gave executives excessive incentives to seek short-term gains – say, by making lending and investment decisions that would improve short-term earnings – even when doing so would increase the risks of an implosion later on.	这种薪酬结构激励高管们追求短期收益– 例如，通过做出提高短期收益贷款和投资决策–即使这样做会增加公司未来的 风险也在所不顾。


Jesse Fried and I warned about this short-term distortion five years ago, in our book Pay without Performance .	杰西•弗里德和我五年前就在我们的《没有业绩的激励  》 一书中提到过这种短期利益行为的危害。


Following the crisis, this problem has become widely recognized, including by business leaders such as Goldman Sachs’ CEO Lloyd Blankfein.	此次金融危机发生过后，人们才开始广泛注意到这一问题，包括业界领袖高盛的首席执行官劳尔德·贝兰克梵。


But it still needs to be effectively addressed: Goldman’s recent decision to provide record bonuses as a reward for performance in the last two quarters, for example, is a step in the wrong direction.	但是这个问题现在仍需要提出：例如，高盛最近根据过去两个季度里的表现，给高管提供巨额奖金的决定就是一个错误的行动。


To avoid rewards for short-term performance and focus on long-term results, pay structures need to be re-designed.	为避免激励短期表现，薪酬体系需要重新设计。


As far as equity-based compensation is concerned, executives should not be allowed to cash out options and shares given to them for a period of, say, five years after the time of “vesting” – that is, the point at which the options and shares have been “earned“ and may not be taken away from the executive.	就基于股权的补偿而言，应该不允许高管在一段时间内，例如，在获得股权的5年内出售期权和股份。 也就是说，只有公司将盈利真正落袋为安时，他们才能获得相应的报酬。


An executive’s inability to cash out shares and options for a substantial period would tie his or her payoff to long-term shareholder value.	一旦高管在相对长的时间内无法售出股份和期权，这将会把他们的待遇与公司的长期股东价值联系在一起。


The length of this period should be fixed, and should not depend on actions or conditions that are at least partly under executives’ control.	这段禁售期应该是事先约定好的，不应该受制于或是至少是部分依赖于高管控制。


By contrast, prohibiting executives from cashing out shares and options until they leave the firm would provide executives who have accumulated shares and options with a large monetary value with counter-productive incentives to depart.	这样一来，就会留住那些已经积累了大量的股份和期权的高管们。


Similarly, bonus compensation should be redesigned to reward long-term performance.	同理，奖金也应该用来奖励高管的长期业绩。


For starters, the use of bonuses based on one-year results should be discouraged.	对刚来的高管，公司不应该鼓励基于一年的业绩表现而发放奖金。


Furthermore, bonuses should not be paid immediately, but rather placed in a company account for several years and adjusted downward if the company subsequently learns that the reason for awarding a bonus no longer holds up.	而且，奖金不应该立即发放，而是应该放在公司的账户待几年，如果公司后来发现发放奖金的理由站不住脚，他们可以向下调整金额。


In addition to the excessive focus on short-term results, a second important source of incentives to take excessive risks has thus far received little attention. The payoffs of financial-sector executives were tied to highly leveraged bets on the value of their firms’ capital.	除了过分专注于短期结果外，第二个使金融机构过度投机的重要激励来源目前还没有引起人们的注意，那就是金融部门主管的报酬与他们公司的资产价值的高度杠杆化相关联。


Executives’ interests were tied to the value of their firms’ common shares – or even to the value of options on such shares.	高管的利益与他们公司的股票价值紧密相连–或是和这些股份的期权价值相联。


As a result, executives were not exposed to the potential negative consequences that large losses could bring about for preferred shareholders, bondholders, and the government as a guarantor of deposits.	这么一来，高管并不承担给优先股股东造成的巨额损失，以及债券人和作为存款担保者的政府带来潜在的负面影响的责任。


These structures provided executives with incentives to give insufficient weight to the possibility of large losses, which in turn motivated executives to take excessive risks.	这些薪酬结构会使得高管们不关注巨额损失的可能性，从而相应会激励高管从事更多的风险活动。


To address this distortion, the payoffs of financial executives should be tied not to the long-term value of their firms’ common shares but to the long-term value of a broader basket of securities.	为了解决这个问题，金融高管的薪酬不应该与他们公司普通股的长期市值相挂钩，而是与一揽子证券的长期价值相挂钩。


This basket should include, at the very least, preferred shares and bonds.	这一揽子证券至少应该包括优先股和债券。


Such structures would provide incentives to take risks that are closer to the optimal level.	这种薪酬结构将会激励高管从事风险接近最优水平的活动


Reforming pay arrangements in ways such as those proposed here would help ensure that firms and the economy don’t suffer in the future from the excessive risk-taking that has contributed to bringing about the financial crisis.	以上建议的目的是要改革目前薪酬架构体系，以确保金融行业和全球经济不会因为过度投机而遭受另一次金融危机的痛苦。


A thorough overhaul of compensation structures must be an important element of the new financial order.	薪酬安排的彻底改革必将是实行新金融秩序的一个重要的环节。


Let the Negotiations Begin	让会谈开始吧


Having successfully integrated ten new members in May – including eight former communist countries with significantly lower levels of economic development – some argue that the EU should stop there.	56亿人口的欧盟是多边治理的范畴内最大规模和最具胆识的一次试验。 我们这个从战争的灰烬中建立起来联盟，在一个日益不安全和多极化的世界上是一支维护和平与推进合作的力量。


But drawing a line under the enlargement process would be both a missed opportunity for the EU and a cruel blow to those countries in the Balkans and elsewhere for whom the prospect of membership is an important incentive for reform and renewal.	现在欧盟委员会已准备好面对另一个巨大的挑战：12月17日，欧洲理事会将会决定在何时以及何种条件下开始与土耳其的入盟谈判。 这一决定将对欧洲的未来产生根本性的影响。


Greece knows this very well. It was our belief in Europe as a catalyst for peace and prosperity that led us to support Turkey’s EU aspirations.	由于欧盟在今年5月成功地吸纳了10个新成员国-包括8个经济发展水平低得多的前共产主义国家-有人就认为欧盟应该到此为止了。


When the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) government launched its policy of Greek-Turkish rapprochement during my tenure as foreign minister, many people were suspicious of mending ties with an old enemy.	但在欧盟扩大的进程中划一条界线不但会使欧盟错失良机，对于那些位于巴尔干和其它地区的国家而言也是一种残酷的打击。


Changing entrenched attitudes could not happen overnight: it required a step-by-step process of confidence-building measures, from the grassroots level to the heights of political power.	对于这些国家来说，加入欧盟的前景是它们进行改革和复兴的重要动因。


Five years later, the results speak for themselves.	希腊对此感触颇深。


Greece and Turkey have signed eighteen mutually beneficial agreements in areas ranging from trade and energy, to environmental protection and the fight against organized crime.	正是我们对欧洲的信心，作为促进和平与繁荣的催化剂，使我们与土耳其达成和解，并支持其加入欧盟的渴望。 当泛希腊社会主义运动（PASOK）政府在我担任外交部长期间出台其希腊-土耳其睦邻友好的政策时，许多人都对这一与夙敌修好的政策表示怀疑。


There is no denying that strong bilateral ties are good for Greece’s economy and security.	改变人们根深蒂固观念不可能一蹴而就：它需要有一个从基层到政治权力的高层进行信心塑造的，渐进式的过程。


But our proactive policy of rapprochement was not designed merely to serve national interests.	5年过去了，事实胜于雄辩。


It was part of a regional vision to promote stability from the Balkans to the Middle East. As a result, Greece and Turkey cooperated in humanitarian efforts in Kosovo and undertook a joint peace mission to Israel and Palestine.	希腊和土耳其在从贸易和能源到环境保护和打击有组织犯罪的诸多领域签署了18个互利的协议。


Greece and Turkey also worked together to prevent the war in Iraq from spilling over into neighboring countries.	无庸置疑，良好的双边关系对于希腊的经济和安全都是大有好处的。


Greek-Turkish rapprochement has created the framework for closer relations between Turkey and the EU.	然而我们前瞻性的睦邻友好政策并不仅仅服务于国家利益。


As a progressive party, PASOK has every interest in Turkey’s progress on democratic reforms.	它也是促进我们从巴尔干到中东的邻近国家稳定的区域性理想的一部分。


That is why we have always supported a real rather than “virtual” European candidacy for Turkey – with full rights, but also with full responsibilities for completing the domestic reforms that have so far been implemented as a result of Turkey’s enhanced “Accession Partnership” with the EU.	其结果是希腊和土耳其在科索沃的人道主义行动中携手合作，并在巴勒斯坦和以色列联手执行过一项维和行动。 希腊与土耳其还协同努力防止伊拉克的战火蔓延到邻国。


Turkey’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) was elected on a pro-European platform, reflecting the public’s demand for modernization and democratization.	希土之间的睦邻友好关系也为欧盟和土耳其之间建立更紧密的关系创建了一个框架。 作为一个进步政党，PASOK非常关注土耳其国内改革的进程。


The biggest obstacles to membership are Turkey’s record on human and minority rights and the inordinate power of the military.	这就是为什么我们一直倡议给予土耳其真正的，而不是“虚拟的”候选国资格。 这会使其享有所有的权利，但同时也要承担所有的责任--与欧盟的强化后的“入盟伙伴关系”引导下实施内部改革的责任。


Clear EU benchmarks and targets for reform will help, but it is now up to the AKP government to show the necessary political will to fulfill its membership obligations.	土耳其的执政党，正义与发展党(AKP) 大选的胜利是建立在一个亲欧洲的平台之上，这反映了公众对现代化和民主化的要求。 土耳其在人权和少数民族权利方面的记录及其军队的权力混乱是其加入欧盟的最大障碍。


However, Turks are all too aware of the passions that their country’s EU candidacy stokes in Europe.	但土耳其人非常清楚他们国家的入盟候选在欧洲所激起的抗拒声浪。


Several EU leaders have claimed that Turkish membership would spark a wave of migration and strain the European economy.	几位欧盟领导人宣称土耳其加入欧盟会引发一股移民潮，从而给欧洲的经济发展造成压力。


Others see no place for a Muslim country in Europe.	其他人索性认为欧洲没有穆斯林国家的立足之地。


None of these objections is persuasive.	然而这两种反对意见都不具有说服力。


If properly managed, migration can enhance Europe’s cultural wealth and meet its labor-market needs, as fertility rates in the EU fall and its population ages.	在欧盟各国人口的生育率下降，老龄化日益严重的情况下，如果管理得当，移民可以增加欧洲的文化财富，并满足劳务市场的需求。


Immigrants come to Europe in large measure because Europe needs them.	数量众多的移民涌入欧洲是因为欧洲需要他们。


At the same time, to deny Turkey a European future on religious grounds is to deny our Union’s diversity.	同时，以宗教为由拒绝土耳其融入欧洲也就等于是否认我们这个联盟现有的多元化。


Democracy is a universal value, not the property of specific religions.	民主是一种普遍的价值观，而不是某些宗教的私有财产。


Moreover, welcoming a country like Turkey will send a positive signal to the Muslim world. It will allay the growing tensions between Christianity and Islam fueled by international terrorism and knee-jerk nationalism.	另外，欢迎一个分享我们的民主价值观，尊重人权和法制承诺的国家加入我们，而不论其种族或宗教背景，会向穆斯林世界发出一个积极的信号。


Unlike the “war on terrorism,” European integration can serve as a model for resolving the underlying crises of the Middle East and addressing the roots of violence in the wider region.	它还会缓和基督教和伊斯兰教之间被国际恐怖主义和狭隘的民族主义所激起的，日益增长的紧张局面。 与“反恐战争”不同，欧洲一体化可以作为解决中东危机和更广泛的地区暴力根源的一种模式。


In particular, the Ecumenical Patriarchate in Istanbul could be a great example of peaceful coexistence among Christians and Muslims.	特别是伊斯坦布尔的大公宗主教长制（Ecumenical Patriarchate）可以作为基督徒和穆斯林和平共处的范例。


For Orthodoxy, the Ecumenical Patriarchate is in many ways the equivalent of Mecca.	对于东正教而言，大公宗主教长制在很多方面相当于麦加。


Allowing the Patriarchate to flourish, and reopening the Theological School on the island of Halki, would underscore Turkey’s progress on human and minority rights.	允许主教长制推而广之，重开霍基岛（Island of Halki）的���学院将会充分体现土耳其在人权和少数民族权益方面的进步。


Turkey should view the Patriarchate not as a threat, but as an important asset – a bridge to Europe.	土耳其不应该将主教长制看成是一种威胁，而应将其当作一项重要资产－一座通往欧洲的桥梁。


Similarly, Cyprus’s entry into the EU, coupled with Turkey’s EU aspirations, has created a unique catalyst for tearing down the “Berlin Wall” that runs through the capital, Nicosia, separating the island’s Christian and Muslim communities.	同样，塞浦路斯加入欧盟和土耳其入盟的努力已经为推到“柏林墙”起到了独特的催化作用。 这座“柏林墙”仍然横亘在塞浦路斯首都尼科西亚，将岛上的基督教和穆斯林社区分割开来。


If Turkey is serious about joining the European family, it must recognize the Republic of Cyprus – like any other member state.	如果土耳其确有诚意加入欧洲大家庭，那么它就必须承认塞浦路斯共和国—就像欧盟其他成员国一样。


A road map must be drawn up for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Cyprus and a settlement of the political division of the island.	为土耳其军队撤出塞浦路斯和解决该岛的政治分裂制定计划也势在必行。


At Helsinki in December 1999, the EU agreed that Turkey must resolve its differences with its neighbors peacefully by the end of 2004, within the framework of EU and international law; otherwise, any outstanding dispute would be settled at the International Court of Justice.	1999年12月在赫尔辛基，欧盟一致决议土耳其必须于2004年底前在欧盟和国际法的框架下和平解决与邻国之间的分歧； 否则，任何悬而未决的争端都必须交由国际法庭解决。


The time has now come for the EU to assess Turkey’s progress on these issues and for Turkey to fulfill its obligations.	现在正是欧盟评估土耳其在这些问题上的进展及土耳其履行自身义务的时候。


As negotiations proceed in the years ahead, it is in the international community's interest to support Turkey’s European future, while making a constructive contribution to end the division of Cyprus, so that the progress we have achieved is not lost.	随着谈判在未来的展开，国际社会从自身的利益出发也应该继续支持土耳其融入欧洲的进程，同时这也能为弥合塞浦路斯的分裂做出建设性的贡献，如此才不会使我们前功尽弃。


From religious and ethnic conflict, Europe can once again forge a model of peaceful cooperation – this time by creating an integrated zone of stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.	欧洲能够再一次从宗教与种族的冲突之中锻造出一种和平合作的模式-这一次是通过在东地中海地区创建一个一体化的稳定区。


Networked Development	网络化发展


STOCKHOLM – The challenges that the world faces in the twenty-first century are systemic and global in nature.	斯德哥尔摩——二十一世纪的世界面临着系统性全球性挑战。


There will be no easy answers to any of them, but one thing is clear: we need transformative solutions that are scalable.	没有简单的解决方法，但有一点非常明确：我们需要拓展性、改革性的解决方案。


Incremental measures will only distract us from the scope of the challenges that we confront.	在原有基础上修修补补只能让我们忽略人类所面临的挑战。


One of the best examples of scale is the mobile telecommunications industry.	移动通信业是规模化的最佳典范。


There are now 6.4 billion mobile phone subscriptions, with the number expected to increase to 9.3 billion by 2017 or 2018.	目前手机用户共计64亿，到2017或2018年有望达到93亿。


Ericsson estimates that by 2018, 85% of the world’s population will have access to mobile-broadband coverage via 3G networks, and 50% will have 4G.	爱立信预测到2018年，3G网络移动宽带将覆盖总人口的85%，其中50%将为4G用户。


In this context, the near ubiquity of mobile networks has created a new paradigm for sustainable development, putting technological advances at the forefront of policymaking.	几乎无所不在的移动网络创造了可持续发展的全新范例，将技术进步推到了决策的最前沿。


Technology is enabling us to share, collaborate, and exchange knowledge in entirely new ways, creating a dynamic shift in mindset.	技术让我们以全新方式共享、合作及交流知识，从而带来充满活力的心态改变。


A new society – what we call the Networked Society – is emerging.	一个全新社会——也就是我们所谓的网络化社会——正在浮出水面。


And in the Networked Society, we have an obligation to ensure that we exploit mobile and broadband technologies not just for collaboration and entertainment, but also for sustainable development.	在网络化社会里，我们有责任确保移动宽带技术不仅用于合作娱乐，而且应用于可持续发展。


Connectivity is a basic enabler of economic growth and improved quality of life, and there is a strong business case for investing in broadband to optimize the delivery of essential services in education, health care, safety, and security, and to redefine urban landscapes through intelligent electricity grids and more efficient transportation.	通信联络是经济增长和生活质量提升的基本推动要素，投资宽带优化教育、医疗和安全领域的基本服务，并通过智能电网和提高运输效率重塑城市规划将能够带来巨大的商业利益。


In 2000, when the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were established, broadband was in its infancy, and most of these benefits had not even been imagined.	2000年联合国千年发展目标（MDGs）制定时，宽带尚处于起步阶段，绝大多数好处甚至根本无法想象。


Today, as world leaders consider the post-2015 development agenda, we cannot overlook the importance of including broadband as a key part of the infrastructure needed to achieve future goals.	今天，当各国领导人思考后2015年发展计划时，宽带作为实现未来目标所需基础设施的重要性已经不容忽视。


The economic benefits of broadband are immense.	宽带可以带来巨大的经济效益。


A 10% increase in broadband penetration can add a full percentage point to sustainable GDP growth, and doubling broadband speed increases GDP by 0.3% on average.	宽带普及率每提升十个百分点GDP可持续增长将递增一个百分点，而宽带双倍提速平均提升0. 3%的国内生产总值（GDP）。


Moreover, mobile commerce – expected to reach $800 billion worldwide by 2016 – has enormous potential to improve social and financial inclusion.	此外，移动电子商务——到2016年预计将达8000亿美元——在改善社会和金融包容性方面有着巨大的潜力。


Likewise, cloud computing is already starting to revolutionize the way content is delivered and accessed both by teachers and students.	同样，云计算已经开始彻底改变老师和学生的内容提供和获取方式。


An example of this is the cloud-based solution for schools developed by Ericsson in the Connect To Learn program.	由爱立信联网学习计划研制的学校云解决方案就是这方面很好的例���。


By addressing the challenges of access and quality of education, Connect To Learn – a collaborative effort between Ericsson, Columbia University’s Earth Institute, and Millennium Promise – identifies strategies to integrate teachers’ professional development with twenty-first-century tools and practices in classrooms.	通过应对知识获取和教育质量的双重挑战，由爱立信、哥伦比亚大学地球研究所和“千年承诺”联合贯彻的联网学习计划明确了将教师职业发展与二十一世纪课堂工具和实践相结合的战略。


As for health care, half could be delivered remotely and more efficiently.	此外可以更为有效地远程提供半数医疗服务。


Evidence of this can be seen in the Millennium Villages Project, where mobile communications have had a particularly significant impact on health care: improved response times to emergencies, reduced isolation, and better training and equipment for health-care workers.	千禧村项目证明移动通信对医疗保健的影响尤为重要：它可以缩短突发事件响应时间、减少孤立，并为医疗工作者提供更好的设备和培训。


Building on this success, the One Million Community Health Workers campaign was recently launched to expand community health-worker programs in Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2015.	借着成功的东风，最近又推出了百万社区卫生工作者计划，目的是截止2015年底扩大撒哈拉以南非洲社区卫生工作者项目。


With the use of the latest communications technology and diagnostic testing materials, the health workers will be able to link the rural poor to the broader system of doctors, nurses, hospitals, and clinics.	运用最新的通信技术和诊断化验材料，卫生工作者能将农村贫困人口纳入到由医生、护士、医院及诊所组成的全方位医疗体系。


These transformations are the result of both scale and innovation.	规模和创新共同带来变革。


But they have been set in motion without concentrated government efforts.	但变革的到来并非由于政府的集中推动。


If these examples were deliberately and specifically considered by the 110 countries that have national broadband plans (and those that still do not), we would be much more likely to achieve the positive transformations that we all want.	如果推行（和尚未推行）国家宽带计划的110个国家有意就上例进行过专门的思考，我们实现积极变革的可能性就会大幅度增加。


This shift in awareness among policymakers will be crucial not just for socio-economic improvement, but also for creating a low-carbon economy, which will require moving from the energy-intensive physical infrastructure of the last century to the connected, information-based infrastructure of the twenty-first century.	类似的决策者意识转变不仅对改善社会经济至关重要，还能在从上个世纪能源密集型实体基础设施向二十一世纪信息化基础设施转型的过程中建设低碳经济。


We need a new paradigm that enables us to decouple GDP growth from CO2 emissions, thereby ensuring further poverty reduction without causing greater environmental damage.	我们需要全新模式实现GDP增长与二氧化碳排放脱钩，这样就能在进一步消除贫困的同时避免污染环境。


The potential is there, but too often government talks to government and industry talks to industry.	上述可能性的确存在，但往往政府归政府，行业归行业。


Public-private partnerships are essential to solving these shared challenges.	应对共同挑战必须进行公私合作。


Development agencies, NGOs, and the private sector should work more effectively together to create scalable and maintainable solutions.	发展机构、非政府组织和私营部门应提高协同工作效率，以制定扩展性、持续性的解决方案。


Two forums are making great strides.	相关探讨在两大领域取得了长足的进步。


One is the Broadband Commission, which advocates for broadband as a key infrastructure of the twenty-first century. The other is the UN’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), which seeks to leverage the private sector’s wealth of resources – its innovative capacity, research and development, management skills, and know-how – to turn policy ideas into reality.	一是主张宽带是二十一世纪关键基础设施的宽带委员会，二是试图利用私有部门资源（包括创新能力、研发、管理能力和技术诀窍）将政策理念变为现实的联合国可持续发展解决方案网络（SDSN）。


Already, industries that have traditionally operated independently – from energy to utilities to transportation – are moving quickly toward cross-sector collaboration, radically altering the business environment, and creating opportunities for new low-carbon business models to thrive.	传统上一直独立经营的能源、公用事业、交通运输等行业已迅速走向跨部门合作，不仅从根本上改变了经营环境，还为全新低碳商业模式创造了茁壮成长的机会。


With concentrated public-private efforts, and proactive governments like those of Sweden, Australia, and India, to name a few, the Networked Society will produce transformative solutions that lift billions of people out of poverty and help us to sustain our planet.	有了公私部门的共同努力和瑞典、澳大利亚、印度等积极政府，网络化社会将产生变革性的解决方案，从而实现数十亿人脱贫和地球的可持续发展。


We may not be able to imagine what the future holds, but we know that the Networked Society will shape its possibilities.	我们也许无法想象未来将会怎样，但我们非常清楚网络化社会将决定未来的机遇。


Russia and America at the Oscars	奥斯卡上的俄罗斯和美国


NEW YORK – Oscar has spoken.	纽约—奥斯卡发声了。


Neither Leviathan, the Russian film nominated for the best Foreign Language Film, nor American Sniper, nominated for Best Picture, won.	俄罗斯影片《利维坦》（Leviathan）没有获得最佳外语片，《美国狙击手》（American Sniper）也没有获得最佳影片。


Yet both, in a way, are the most representative films of the year, as each captures the essence of why Russia and the United States now seem doomed to wage a new Cold War.	但在某种程度上说，两部影片都是年度最有口碑影片，两部影片都抓住了如今俄罗斯和美国可能开始新冷战的实质。


Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Leviathan faced an uphill public-relations battle.	俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，《利维坦》面临着日益激烈的公关战。


But Leviathan's bleak portrait of contemporary Russian life actually confirms many of the reasons why Americans have been largely dubious about Russia's ability to reform following communism's collapse.	但《利维坦》对现代俄罗斯生活的凄惨描述实际上确认了美国人不相信俄罗斯可以改良随后的共产主义崩溃的许多理由。


That doubt has been reflected in popular culture.	这种怀疑反映在流行文化中。


Since 1991, Hollywood has documented American mistrust of post-Soviet Russia in a series of films – for example, The Saint, Air Force One, The Golden Compass of 2006, Salt, and The November Man.	1991年以来，好莱坞在许多电影中表现出美国人对后苏联时代俄罗斯的不信任你——如《圣徒》（The Saint）、《空军一号》（Airforce One）、2006年的《黄金罗盘》（The Golden Compass）、《特工绍特》（Salt）和《十一月杀手》（The November Man）等。


Russian President Vladimir Putin's thuggish foreign policy has proved these Russophobes right, so nominating Leviathan, the superb biopsy of his regime, seemed only right.	俄罗斯总统普京的蛮横外交政策这些仇俄态度的正确性，因此提名堪称普京政权绝佳活体切片的《利维坦》为最佳外语片似乎再正确也没有了。


And, though Oscar did not anoint Leviathan, the film deserves all of the accolades it has received.	而尽管奥斯卡没有青睐《利维坦》，该片确实经得起它所受到的所有赞美。


Directed by Andrey Zvyagintsev in an eerie style that one might call the “realism of despair," the film is both epic and deeply nuanced.	该片由安德烈·萨金塞夫（Andrey Zvyagintsev）执导，风格诡异，你也许可以称之为“绝望现实主义”。 它叙事华丽并且极其细腻。


The title harks back to the book of Job and recalls Herman Melville's Moby Dick.	片名让人想起《约伯记》和赫曼·梅尔维尔的《白鲸记》。


Set in a small town on the Barents Sea, Leviathan shows that there is no escape, not even in the Arctic, from the Moscow-centric state and its hypocritical doppelganger, the Orthodox Church.	《利维坦》场景设在一个巴伦支海滨小镇，影片表现出哪怕你身处北冰洋，也无法摆脱这个以莫斯科为中心的国家及其伪善的幽灵——东正教会。


The giant skeleton of a whale – possibly Leviathan itself – is beached on the shoreline, along with the carcasses of old boats, beneath a severe gray sky that frames a human landscape of political abuse, adultery, lawlessness, and the cynicism of all-powerful priests.	一副巨大的鲸鱼骸骨——也许是利维坦本身——搁浅在海岸，周围是各种旧船残骸，而阴沉的天色营造出一种政治迫害、通奸、无法和全能牧师的犬儒主义的人文环境。


The story, akin to Alexander Solzhenitsyn's ambitious 1962 masterpiece One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich, steadily indicts the corruption of state power – a power ever-willing to kill and to align itself with an even more corrupt power, the Orthodox Church.	影片的故事接近于索尔仁尼琴1962年的宏大杰作《伊万·杰尼索维奇的一天》（One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich），是对国家力量的腐败的娓娓道来的控诉。 这股腐败的力量日益沉溺于杀戮，并且与更加腐败的力量——东正教会相勾结。


Like communism, which once promised absolution for the worst crimes in exchange for loyalty, Russia's current state religion allows, even encourages, misdeeds – including murder – so long as one is loyal to God.	与共产主义——它曾经承诺赦免最恶劣的犯罪以换取忠诚——一样，俄罗斯目前的国教允许甚至鼓励恶行——包括谋杀——只要你终于上帝。


Nikolai, Leviathan's hotheaded main character, sees his life consumed by the fight to save his seashore property from the town's mayor.	《利维坦》的主角、脾气暴躁的尼古拉（Nikolai）眼睁睁看着自己的生活沦为与镇长争夺他的海滨产业的斗争。


“I'll kill him if he builds a palace here," shouts Nikolai, in a reference to current Russian leaders' proclivity for erecting garish monuments to their personal splendor: Putin's Italianate palace on the Black sea, for example, allegedly cost more than $1 billion.	“如果他在那里建造宫室，我就杀了他，”尼古拉叫道，这一幕可以看到当下俄罗斯领��人为其个人成就树立华丽标志物的癖好：比如，普京在黑海营造了一座意大利风格行宫，据说耗资超过10亿美元。


At the end of his struggle, Nikolai's life is ruined.	斗争到最后，尼古拉的生活被摧毁了。


His wife is killed, and he stands accused of murdering her for an affair she briefly had with his friend.	他的妻子死于非命，而他则被控因为妻子与他的朋友有染而杀妻。


At the end, we learn that Nikolai was persecuted to make room not for the mayor's palace, but for a cathedral.	最后，我们看到尼古拉被迫去造房子——不是为了镇长的宫室，而是为了一座教堂。


Even the Russian clichés – tragedy stemming from overweening power, vodka, swearing, shooting, and shouting – only strengthen the film's extraordinary depiction of the local effects of distant and devastating forces.	甚至俄罗斯的老桥段——过度的力量、伏特加、赌咒、枪击和咆哮导致的悲剧——也起到了强化影片对遥远的破坏力量的地方影响的卓越描绘。


This is Russian politics at its most debased.	这是俄罗斯政治最恶劣之处。


In Stalin's time, the masterpieces of, say, Boris Pasternak or Dmitri Shostakovich were entrusted to give artistic voice to a silenced civil society.	在斯大林时期，还让（比如）帕斯捷尔纳克和肖斯塔科维奇的杰作让缄默的公民社会发出艺术之声。


So it is ironic that Leviathan was partly financed by Russia's culture ministry – and telling that the Russian authorities had no interest in its winning at the Oscars.	因此，《利维坦》由俄罗斯文化部拨出部分资金——并且表示俄罗斯当局对赢得奥斯卡奖不感兴趣——显得颇为讽刺。


Indeed, Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky recently criticized the film for its darkness and pessimism.	事实上，俄罗斯文化部长梅丁斯基（Vladimir Medinsky）最近还批评了该片的黑暗和悲观。


American Sniper, directed by Clint Eastwood, reflects US mores as much as Leviathan reflects the current Russian Zeitgeist.	克林特·伊斯特伍德（Clint Eastwood）指导的《美国狙击手》对美国风俗的体现不亚于《利维坦》对当下俄罗斯时代精神的反映。


But, where Leviathan examines Putin's Russia with the unflinching eye of a surgeon, American Sniper merely trumpets supposed national values with no consideration of their application around the world.	但是，《利维坦》毫不畏惧地以外科医生的犀利眼光洞察普京的俄罗斯，而《美国狙击手》只是大肆鼓吹所谓的国家价值，而没有考虑这些价值在全世界的应用。


During four tours in Iraq as a soldier/missionary, a stand-up Texan, Chris Kyle (played by Bradley Cooper) becomes known as Legend, a killer with a savior complex.	由布拉德利·库珀（Bradley Cooper）扮演的克里斯·凯尔（Chris Kyle）是一个孤胆德州人，他作为士兵/传教士四次进入伊拉克，最后成为一个传奇，一个带着救星光环的杀手。


American Sniper, loosely based on Kyle's memoir, touts the frontier mentality – a neo-cowboy movie made by a former cowboy-movie star.	《美国狙击手》根据凯尔的回忆录改编，展现了前线心理——这是一部由旧牛仔电影巨星执导的新牛仔电影。


Just as Leviathan shows a Russia caught in the throes of a political nightmare, American Sniper shows a country trapped by its heroic mythology – defined in countless Western movies – of rugged individualism at home and defense of freedom and order abroad.	正如《利维坦》表现出一个在政治噩梦中苦苦挣扎的俄罗斯，《美国狙击手》表现出深陷英雄神话（由数不清的西方电影构造）泥潭的国家——在国内坚定奉行个人主义，在国外捍卫自由和秩序。


But the world has changed, and many no longer view America's global role as an expression of its unique innocence and goodness.	但世界已经改变，许多人不再将美国的全球角色视为独特的纯真和善良的表达。


Given everything we have learned about the Iraq War – false claims about weapons of mass destruction, nonexistent links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda, and so on – Eastwood's film comes across as a work of marketing, not reflection and contemplation.	基于我们从伊拉克战争中所了解的一切——虚假的大规模杀伤性武器借口、子虚乌有与的萨达姆与基地组织的关系，如此等等——伊斯特伍德的电影只是一件营销作品，而不是深思和用心之作。


Eastwood has merely updated his earlier films – think The Outlaw Josey Wales or Pale Rider – with their unwavering conviction that America's god of righteousness must prevail.	伊斯特伍德只是对其早期电影做了更新——如《西部执法者》（The Outlaw Josey Wales）和《苍白骑士》（Pale Rider）——完全沿袭了这些电影中美国的正义之神必然获胜的坚定信念。


In short, American Sniper fails where Leviathan succeeds.	简言之，《利维坦》的成功之处正是《美国狙击手》的失败之处。


George Orwell neatly summarized why: “All propaganda is a lie even when it's telling the truth."	乔治·奥威尔出色地总结了原因：“所有的宣传都是谎言，哪怕它在讲述事实。 ”


The Puzzle of Liberal Democracy	自由民主之谜


PRINCETON – Nearly two decades ago, the political commentator Fareed Zakaria wrote a prophetic article called “The Rise of the Illiberal Democracy,” in which he worried about the rise of popular autocrats with little regard for the rule of law and civil liberties.	普林斯顿——大约20年前，政治评论员法里德·扎卡里亚曾撰文预言所谓“非自由民主的崛起”，他在文中不无担忧地指出红极一时的独裁者很少考虑到法治和公民权利。


Governments may be elected in free and fair elections, he wrote, and yet routinely violate their citizens’ basic rights.	扎卡里亚提出通过自由公正选举产生的政府仍有可能经常性地侵犯公民的基本权利。


Since Zakaria’s piece, illiberal democracies have become more the norm than the exception.	从扎卡里亚那篇文章后，非自由民主与其说是意外还不如说是常态。


By Freedom House’s count, more than 60% of the world’s countries are electoral democracies – regimes in which political parties compete and come to power in regularly scheduled elections – up from around 40% in the late 1980s.	据自由之家统计，全球超60%的国家实行民主选举制度——即各党派在定期选举中竞争掌权——而20世纪80年代上述比例仅为40%。


But the majority of these democracies fail to provide equal protection under the law.	但这些民主国家大多无法为民众提供平等的法律保护。


Typically, it is minority groups (ethnic, religious, linguistic, or regional) that bear the brunt of illiberal policies and practices.	通常来讲，承受狭隘政策行为冲击的往往是少数群体（按民族、宗教、语言或地区划分）。


But government opponents of all stripes run the risk of censorship, persecution, or wrongful imprisonment.	但审查、迫害或非法监禁的危险形形色色的政府反对派都无法逃避。


Liberal democracy rests on three distinct sets of rights: property rights, political rights, and civil rights.	自由民主建立的基础包括财产权、政治权和公民权等三种不同的权利。


The first set of rights protects owners and investors from expropriation.	第一种权利保护业主和投资者的财产不被征用。


The second ensures that groups that win electoral contests can assume power and choose policies to their liking – provided these policies do not violate the other two sets of rights.	第二种保障在选举中获胜的团体可以在不侵犯其他两种权利的前提下掌权并选择自己喜爱的政策。


Finally, civil rights guarantee equal treatment before the law and equal access to public services such as education.	最后，公民权保障在法律面前人人平等，比方说平等地接受公共服务和教育。


Property rights and political rights both have powerful beneficiaries.	财产权和政治权的受益者都很有势力。


Property rights are of interest primarily to the elite – owners and investors.	对财产权感兴趣的大多是由业主和投资者组成的精英人士。


They may be comparatively few in number, but they can mobilize material resources if they do not get their way.	他们相比之下可能人数较少，但却拥有在不达目的时调动物质资源的能力。


They can take their money elsewhere, or choose not to invest – imposing substantial costs on the rest of society.	他们可以选择到别处投资或者不投资——他们的选择能让社会其他阶层付出巨大的代价。


Political rights are of interest primarily to the organized masses – the working class or ethnic majority, depending on the structure and cleavages in society.	按照社会结构和分歧状况，包括工人阶级或多数民族在内的有组织民众主要对政治权感兴趣。


Members of the majority may be comparatively poor, but they have numbers on their side.	多数人可能相对贫困，但却拥有数量优势。


They can threaten the elite with uprisings and expropriation.	他们可以用起义和财产征用来威胁精英人士。


The main beneficiaries of civil rights, by contrast, are typically minorities that possess neither wealth nor numbers.	相比之下，公民权的主要受益者往往是财富和数量均不占优的少数族裔。


Turkey’s Kurds, Hungary’s Roma, Russia’s liberals, or Mexico’s indigenous population ordinarily command little power within their countries.	土耳其的库尔德人、匈牙利的罗姆人、俄罗斯的自由派和墨西哥的土著民众通常在各自国家中都鲜有优势。


Their demands for equal rights therefore do not have the potency that demands for property and political rights have.	因此他们争取平等权利的要求并不具备财产权和政治权所具备的效力。


Theories that purport to explain the historical origins of democracy have overlooked this asymmetry among claimants for different types of rights.	不同主体所要求权利的不对称性往往被意在解释民主历史渊源的理论所忽视。


These theories revolve largely around a bargain between the propertied elite and the working classes: faced with the threat of revolt, the elites expand the franchise and allow the masses to vote.	上述理论的核心基本是有产精英和工人阶级间的讨价还价：面对起义威胁的精英阶层拓展公民权并允许民众投票。


In return, the masses – or their representatives – agree not to expropriate the elite.	反过来，民众或其代表承诺不对��英阶级财产进行征用。


Of course, the elite prefer an autocracy in which they rule alone and protect their own rights but no one else’s.	当然，精英阶层更愿意独断专行，牺牲其他阶层来保护本阶层利益。


Throughout most of human history, they had their way.	纵观绝大部分人类历史，他们一直在这个问题上在一意孤行。


A democratic bargain becomes feasible only when the masses are able to organize and mobilize around common interests.	民众组织并动员共同利益导致民主谈判成为可能。


This makes credible both their threat of insurrection before the bargain and their promise to protect property rights afterwards.	他们在谈判前的叛乱威胁和谈判后的财产保护承诺也因此变得可信。


Historically, such mobilizations have been the product of industrialization and urbanization, wars, or anti-colonial struggles.	从历史上看，上述动员是工业化和城市化、战争或反殖民斗争的产物。


But these bargains, by their very nature, produce electoral democracies rather than liberal democracies.	但就其本身的性质而言，选举民主而非自由民众才是上述谈判的产物。


The dispossessed minorities who have the strongest stake in civil rights play no role during the democratic transition for the simple reason that they cannot normally bring anything to the bargaining table.	受公民权影响最大的无依无靠的少数民族在民主过渡中不起任何作用，就因为他们往往缺少可用于谈判的资源。


So the democratic bargain yields property and political rights, but only rarely civil rights as well.	于是民主谈判产生财产和政治权利，但却极少产生公民权。


Viewed from this perspective, the puzzle is not why democracy so often turns out to be illiberal.	从这个角度看，民主国家往往不自由本身并不是问题所在。


It is that liberal democracy can ever emerge.	问题在于自由民主能否真的出现。


One set of circumstances that favors liberal democracy is the absence of clear-cut ethnic or other identity cleavages among the non-elites.	有一种情况有利于自由民主，那就是非精英阶层不存在明显的种族或其他身份分裂。


Cultural and social homogeneity means that there is no identifiable minority against which the majority can discriminate.	文化和社会同质性意味着可供多数人歧视的少数群体根本不存在。


Scandinavian countries historically, and Japan and South Korea more recently, approximate this prototype.	历史上的斯堪的纳维亚国家和近代的日本韩国与这种原型非常相似。


A different situation that produces a similar outcome is the presence of multiple and overlapping cleavages.	还有一种情况能造成类似的结果，那就是多重和重叠分裂的存在。


If there is no clear-cut majority-minority distinction, each group in power may be willing to recognize the rights of others for fear that it may face a period out of power in the future.	如果看不到明显的多数-少数分别，掌权的所有团体可能会因为害怕未来权力落入他手而承认他人的权利。


This is the kind of precarious balance on which, for example, Lebanon’s “consociational” democracy rested – until differential population growth and external intervention undid it.	举例来讲，这就是黎巴嫩“联合”民主赖以存在的脆弱平衡——直至上述平衡被人口增长差异和外来干预所破坏。


A third possibility is that society’s most distinctive ethnic or racial cleavage aligns with the divide that separates the masses from the propertied elite.	第三种可能是社会最明显的民族或种族差别与区分有产精英和民众的差别相一致。


In South Africa, for example, whites were both the elite and the racial minority.	例如南非白人既是精英阶层又是少数族裔。


When the apartheid government negotiated with the African National Congress prior to the 1994 democratic transition, it demanded (and received) property and civil rights for the white minority in exchange for political rights for the black majority.	在1994年民主过渡前种族隔离政府与非国大谈判时，它要求（并且得到了）白人少数民族的财产和公民权，以换取黑人多数民族的政治权。


The bargain has survived remarkably well, despite the tough times that South African democracy has experienced since then.	虽然南非民主其后经历了诸多困难，但那次谈判的结果却一直没有改变。


Alternatively, perhaps liberal democracy has little to do with the balance of power among social groups and their strategic motivations.	又或者，或许自由民主和社会团体及其战略动机间的权力平衡没什么关系。


Maybe it requires instead, the development over time of a culture of tolerance and civil liberties.	或许它需要以逐步建立宽容和公民自由文化为前提。


Or maybe both are needed to sustain institutions that uphold property, political, and civil rights in the long term.	又或者，要想建立长期坚持财产、政治和公民权利的制度以上两者皆为必须。


Whatever the reason for the emergence of liberal democracy, we should not be surprised by how uncommon it is in practice.	无论自由民主出现的原因是什么，我们都不应惊讶于它在现实中是多么罕见。


Only rarely do political forces align to produce a sustainable version of it.	政治势力极少携手创建可持续的自由民主。


Liberating NASA	解放NASA


NEW YORK – Let me disclose my biases up front: I did not dream of going into space as a child. I took it for granted.	发自纽约——首先，请允许我透露一下自己的某种偏见：本人从小就没有那种有朝一日飞上太空的幻想，因为觉得那是件理所当然的事。


My father was a (genuine) rocket scientist, and I figured that just as airplanes had become commonplace over the course of his life, space travel would become commonplace over the course of mine.	我父亲是一位货真价实的火箭专家，而照我推测，正如飞机旅行在他那代人的一生中逐渐变得司空见惯那样，太空旅行也会在我这代人的时光中走下神坛。


People first landed on the Moon while I was a teenager, and I turned to other pursuits – journalism, the Internet, startup companies.	人类登陆月球的时候我还是个风华正茂的少年，有着自己的追求——当记者，搞互联网，创办新兴企业。


But then, decades later, I woke up and discovered that space travel was still reserved for a small corps of astronauts and cosmonauts, and a tiny group of wealthy space tourists – six so far.	但几十年之后，我突然醒悟到太空旅行还只是一帮美俄宇航员和一小撮超级富豪（目前总共只有六个）的专利。


The space business was the preserve of a few governments, plus a number of large cost-plus contractors who lived in symbiosis with their government customers.	太空这门生意依然是个独家买卖，只掌握在少数几个国家还有一帮只跟这些政府客户打交道且总是漫天要价的承包商手里。


Then there was Space Adventures, the private company that arranges the space tourist trips with Roskosmos, the Russian Federal Space Agency, for upwards of $35 million a flight.	而后又出现了私营的太空历险公司（Space Adventures），该公司和俄罗斯联邦航天局合作，只要3500万美元就可以来一次太空旅行。


I invested in Space Adventures, and also in XCOR Aerospace, a rocket maker.	我向该公司注入了投资，同时也投资了火箭制造商XCOR Aerospace。


As with the Internet, I could see the glimmer of the energy that results  when commercial startups invade a market dominated by large, established organizations.	正如过去的互联网那样，我可以感应到当那些新兴商业企业入侵一个被历史悠久的大型组织所垄断的市场时所闪烁的星星之火。


I wanted to know more about space travel (not about startups!) and figured that six months of space training with Roskosmos, organized by Space Adventures, was the best way to get totally immersed.	我奔赴俄罗斯进一步了解了太空旅行（而不是新兴企业！ ）之后得出结论：实现太空旅行的最佳手段，就是在太空历险公司组织下接受俄罗斯联邦航天局的6个月太空训练。


After I returned, I had the opportunity to join the NASA Advisory Council, as chairman of its Technology and Innovation Committee.	回国之后我有幸加入了美国太空总署（NASA）的顾问委员会，并担任了委员会下属的技术和创新委员会主席。


The Council has recently been shaken up, with its membership reduced from 50 to 10 and each member's role clarified.	该委员会最近发生了大变动，其成员人数从50个减少到10 个，而且每个成员所承担的角色都得到了明确。


However,  the Council's actual power is limited: NASA is told what to do – and is financed to to do it – by the United States Congress.	但委员会的实际权力依然是受限制的：太空总署按美国国会的指令运作，并受其资助。


We can only advise on what Congress decrees and funds.	我们能做的只是对国会的指令和资助方向提供咨询意见。


This shakeup reflects a shakeup at NASA itself, under new Administrator Charlie Bolden, appointed by President Barack Obama. And it's a huge opportunity for NASA as well as for space exploration and science.	实际上，这场变动也是NASA内部变动的延伸，而具体操刀的则是总统奥巴马任命的新主管查理·博尔顿，但这无论是对于NASA自身，还有太空探索和科技来说都是一次巨大的机遇。


Obama has proposed a new budget for NASA that directs it to focus on longer-term goals, and adds another $6 billion over the next five years (at a time when almost every other agency faces budget cuts).	奥巴马总统为NASA提出了一个新的预算方案，将其工作方面转向实现某些长期目标，并在未来五年内额外追加了60亿美元预算（须知这可是在其他机构都在勒紧裤带的时候）。


Over the past four decades, NASA has matured, which has made it so process-ridden and cautious – so responsible – that it has lost much of its energy and innovativeness.	要知道，在过去40年以来，NASA逐渐成长为一个成熟的机构，但这也令其变得程序化且过于谨慎——也就是太害怕承担责任了——这导致整个机构丧失了前进的动力和创新能力。


With almost every US election cycle, it endured funding cuts, re-orientations, and the like.	几乎在每个总统大选周期内，NASA都要面对预算缩减，机构目标转向等遭遇。


Then NASA had two large and image-damaging space-shuttle accidents – the Challenger disaster of 1986, followed by the disintegration of the Columbia over Texas in 2003. These catastrophes stripped NASA of its appetite for risk.	此外，NASA还发生过两场令其颜面扫地的重大航天事故——1986年的挑战者号航天飞机爆炸事故以及2003年在得克萨斯州发生的哥伦比亚号航天飞机坠毁事故。


The astronauts themselves were eager to return to space, but the bureaucrats were unwilling to send them.	这两场灾难令NASA变得畏首畏尾，虽然宇航员们极端渴望回到太空，但官员们却不愿意送他们上去。


This is a persistent challenge for government agencies: they get hammered whenever something goes wrong.	对于政府部门来说，这种质疑是永远无法逃避的：每次出了什么问题的时候，他们都会遭到指责。


People are accustomed to the risks of driving cars or taking planes. But governments are not supposed to kill people.	人们对驾驶汽车或者乘坐飞机的风险都习以为常，但都认为政府不应如此牺牲人命。


I'm not suggesting that private companies should be allowed to kill people, but they can take risks (with people who understand the risks they are taking), which governments cannot.  Of course, they are also incentivized not to take risks; any start-up space company that carelessly kills someone will probably also kill itself.	我并不是说私营企业就可以随意牺牲人的生命，但他们可以和那些了解自己所冒风险的人一起承担风险，这一点也是政府所做不到的。 当然，这些公司本身也有规避风险的动机，因为任何导致人员死亡的新兴企业都可能因此走上绝路，但这个行业将最终幸存下来并走向繁荣。


So, what does the new NASA budget do?	那么NASA的新预算究竟有什么作用？


And how is it relevant to other industries and other governments?	它跟其他行业和别国政府又有什么关系呢？


The new budget does two things.	新预算做了两件事。


First, it acknowledges that the so-called Constellation project, which was focused on returning to the Moon, is behind schedule, over budget, and unambitious.	首先，NASA承认旨在重返月球的所谓“星座计划”不但进度缓慢，预算超标，而且还缺乏远见。


So the budget cancels Constellation – though many of the specific projects and employees that comprised it will live on.	为此预算撤销了“星座计划”——但会保留许多原先跟该计划配套的特殊项目和工作人员。


The new budget will apply the freed-up funds and resources towards a still-to-be-defined program aimed at going beyond the Moon to asteroids, so-called “near-Earth objects,” and, eventually, Mars.	新预算将向一个尚未明确界定的项目投入资金和资源，这个名为“近地球物体”的项目，目的在于登上月球之外的行星，最终到达火星。


Obama did not, however, define the new goals tightly, leaving that up to NASA – a sensible and modest approach, but unfortunately a political mistake.	但奥巴马也没有把新目标定得太过具体，以便给NASA留下机动空间——这堪称一个合理且恰到好处的做法，却不幸成为了政治上的败笔。


It is never a good idea to replace something with vagueness. Politicians and lobbyists who care only about this year's jobs and next year's votes have jumped all over this lack of a plan.	要知道那些目标模糊的政策总是很容易被推翻的，而那些只关心今年就业情况和明年选票的政客和国会游说者们早就开始对这个缺乏具体细则的计划指指点点了。


Their scorn has also extended to the second part of the budget, a program that normally they would have liked: bringing back to the US jobs that currently go to Russians.	这些人的轻蔑之情同时也影响到了新预算的第二个部分，一个平时很讨他们喜欢的项目：把美国流失到俄罗斯的就业岗位夺回来。


For the budget proposes contracting with American startups to send astronauts and cargo to low-Earth orbit – mostly to the International Space Station.	预算建议和美国新兴企业签订合同，把宇航员和货物送到低地球轨道——大概是国际空间站附近。


For the next few years, NASA will be buying those services from RosKosmos and sending astronauts up in Russian Soyuzes.	在未来��年，NASA将从俄罗斯联邦航天局采购相关的服务，借助俄罗斯运载飞船把自己的宇航员送上太空。


But after that, under the new budget, they will be buying from the likes of start-ups SpaceX and Orbital Sciences (and eventuallly, I hope, XCOR).	但再过几年，在新预算体制下，他们将从SpaceX或者Orbital Science这些新兴企业购买服务（最终我希望能它们能惠顾XCOR Aerospace火箭公司）。


Government should focus on long-term, risky research (where the risk is to projects, not to people), and the private sector should focus on delivering services that are already well understood and ready to be handled in a routine way.	而在政府这方面，应该把目光集中在长期性和有风险的研究（当然这些风险是对项目，而不是对人命而言），反之私营企业则应该专心提供那些已经研究完善且准备好以非特殊方式提供给公众的服务。


The irony of American politics right now is that normally pro-business Republicans are those most hostile to NASA’s new budget – which espouses the values of entrepreneurship and innovativeness that Republicans claim to hold dear.	但当前美国政治的讽刺之处却是往常重商主义的共和党人转而反对NASA的预算计划——殊不知这项预算计划本来就是和共和党人所珍视的企业家精神和创新精神不谋而合的。


NASA itself is a typical large organization. Most of its people would welcome a more entrepreneurial environment, but they have been beaten down by years of criticism, constraints, regulations, and arbitrary budget cuts.	作为一个典型大型组织的NASA来说，当中绝大多数人都会喜欢一个更具有创业精神的环境，但他们已经被数年以来的批评，规定，管制和武断的预算削减压得抬不起头来。


As a system, NASA is resistant to change, but inside there are thousands of people yearning to experiment and learn from both successes and failures.	作为一个系统，NASA是抗拒变革的，但在它内部却有着数千名渴望从无数次成功和失败中经历和学习的人。


They want the liberation of a grand challenge.	他们希望被解放出来迎接一场巨大的挑战。


They want to take risks with technology, not with people.	他们甘愿冒技术的风险，而不是人命的风险。


Look around you. There are lots of organizations like that, waiting to be liberated, their employees yearning to breathe free.	看看你的身边，类似的机构不胜枚举，它们渴望松绑，它们的员工希望呼吸到新鲜空气。


Liberty’s Revolutionary Muse	自由的革命性缪斯


Great social thinkers almost always start out as polarizing figures, admired by some and scorned by others, until their radical challenge to how we understand the world finally prevails.	伟大的社会思想家开始之初几乎总是一些引发争议的人物。 某些人崇拜他们，某些人挖苦他们，直到他们对我们理解世界的方式提出的激进挑战最后赢得胜利。


Milton Friedman was a giant among modern social thinkers for at least two reasons.	至少有两个原因使得弗里德曼成为现代社会思想家中的巨人。


First, he profoundly influenced not only his own field of economics, but also the social sciences more broadly.	首先，他不仅深刻地影响了他自身的经济学领域，而且也更为广泛地影响了社会科学。


Second, judging by historical experience, his influence on public opinion and economic policymaking improved countless lives for the better.	第二，根据历史经验来判断，他对舆论和经济政策制定改善了难以计数的人的生活。


For decades, Friedman remained stranded in the intellectual wilderness, spurning the postwar Keynesian consensus that governments should use fiscal policy to manage aggregate demand – a view that sustained statist economic policies through the 1970’s.	几十年来，弗里德曼在知识荒野中流落，拒绝接受二战后凯恩斯主义的共识，即政府应当运用财政政策来管理总需求，这一观点在整个七十年代支撑了国家干预的经济政策。 确实，在其年龄背景下，弗里德曼是一位真正的知识界革命性人物。


Indeed, in the context of his age, Friedman was a true intellectual revolutionary, combining rigorous academic research and gracefully written popular books and journalism to argue for free-market policies – and to affirm the link, defended by writers from Adam Smith to Friedrich von Hayek, between economic freedom and political liberty.	他结合了严谨的学术研究、文笔优雅的畅销书籍和新闻学笔调来呼吁自由市场政策，并且肯定经济自由以及政治自由之间的联系。 从亚当∙斯密到哈耶克的大师也都为这一联系辩护。


In economics, Friedman revived and developed the monetarist theory that the quantity of money in circulation is the main determinant of how economies perform.	在经济学中，弗里德曼重新恢复了货币主义者的理论并予以发扬光大。 这一理论认为流通中的货币数量是各经济体表现的主要决定因素。


In his masterpiece A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (written with Anna Schwartz), he famously attributed recessions, including the Great Depression of the 1930’s, to a decline in the money supply.	在其与施瓦茨合著的杰作<<1867年至1960年的美国货币历史>>中，他将包括三十年代大萧条的经济衰退归结于货币供应的下降，从而声名远扬。


Likewise, he argued that it was an oversupply of money that caused inflation.	同时，他认为，是货币供应过量造成了通货膨胀。


In the 1960’s, Friedman showed that Keynesian demand management through government spending constantly increased the money supply, accelerating wage and price growth.	六十年代，弗里德曼表明，凯恩斯主义以政府开支为手段的需求管理不断增加货币供应，加快了工资和价格增长。


Together with Edmund Phelps – this year’s Nobel Prize laureate – he proved that there is no stable tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.	他和今年的诺贝尔经济学奖得主菲尔普斯一道证明了失业率和通货膨胀之间并无稳定的联系。


Any attempt to use expansionary government policies to drive unemployment below a certain level, they demonstrated, would fuel inflationary expectations and undermine both economic growth and employment.	他们表明，任何使用扩张性的政府政策来将失业率压低到一定水平的企图都将燃起通货膨胀的预期并同时破坏经济增长和就业。


That analysis both anticipated and explained the combination of rising inflation and rising unemployment of the 1970’s that came to be known as “stagflation.”	这一分析同时预计并且解释了发生在七十年代的通货膨胀与失业率同时不断上升的、被成为“滞胀”的现象。


Friedman was the catalyst for a profound shift in how governments conduct economic policy.	弗里德曼催化了政府经济政策制定的深刻转变。


Rather than fiscal stimulation and control, the main tool of economic management nowadays is monetary policies conducted by independent central banks.	现今经济管理的主要工具是由独立的中央银行制定的货币政策，而非财政刺激和控制。 凯恩斯主义的需求管理理论因而被一个新的理论所取而代之。


Keynesian demand management was thus displaced by a new understanding – which we owe largely to Friedman – that pursuing fiscal discipline and price stability is the best guarantee of macroeconomic sustainability.	这一理论认为，奉行财政纪律以及价格稳定是宏观经济长治久安的最佳保证。 这一理论在很大程度上药归功于弗里德曼。


Equally important were Friedman’s contributions to influencing public opinion through works that addressed the role of the state in society.	弗里德曼通过论述国家在社会中的作用的著作影响舆论，其贡献同样重要。


Alongside Hayek, his colleague at the University of Chicago, Friedman launched a more general intellectual assault on Keynesianism, arguing that any government permitted to regulate the economy in the name of equality posed a threat to individual liberty.	他和他的芝加哥大学的同事哈耶克一道对凯恩斯主义进行了更为总体的知识性抨击。 他们认为，任何以平等的名义得到允许调节经济的政府都对个人自由构成威胁。


In his Newsweek columns published between 1966 and 1983, and in his books Capitalism and Freedom , Free to Choose , and The Tyranny of the Status Quo (written with his wife, Rose), Friedman offered a vision of liberty that was both appealing and achievable.	弗里德曼1966年至1983年在新闻周刊上发表专栏文章，并在<<资本主义和自由>>、<<选择自由>>以及和其夫人合著的<<现状的暴政>>等著作中提出了既引人入胜而又可以实现的自由的景象。


Indeed, Free to Choose – later the basis of a popular television series that he hosted – was published illegally in Poland in the 1980’s, helping to inspire me, and many others, to dream of a future of freedom during the darkest years of communist rule.	<<选择自由>>一书后来成为他所主持的广受欢迎的电视系列节目的基础。 确实，二十世纪八十年代该书在波兰非法出版，并在共产主义统治最为黑暗的年代中激发了我以及其他许多人梦想一个自由的未来。


With remarkable clarity, his popular writings advanced a compelling political philosophy, together with concrete policy proposals.	他的著作极为明晰，广受欢迎，促进了引人注目的政治哲学以及切实的政策建议。


For example, he pioneered the idea of school vouchers, arguing that private competition would ensure better educational performance than government systems.	例如，他开创了学校券观念的先河。 他认为，私有竞争将会比政府体系更加确保更好的教育业绩。


Friedman’s views made him a guiding light for economic conservatives worldwide.	弗里德曼的观点使之成为全世界经济学保守派人士的指路明灯。


His influence on Margaret Thatcher’s government helped transform Britain from a post-industrial basket case dominated by class struggle into Europe’s dominant economic power.	他对撒切尔夫人政府的��响帮助将英国从受到阶层斗争困扰的后工业化病夫转变为欧洲的经济强国。


When Vietnam launched free-market reforms in the 1980’s, senior government officials pored over his writings.	八十年代越南开始自由市场改革之际，政府的高层官员研习他的著作。


He also initiated the now common practice of measuring and comparing political and economic freedom across countries, helping to shape opinion in countries that are viewed as limiting freedom.	他还开启了现在已经平常的衡量比较国家间政治和经济自由的做法，帮助在被视为限制自由的国家形成观念。


But Friedman’s consistent anti-statism also led him to embrace positions that ran afoul of many conservatives’ political sensibilities, underscoring the intellectual honesty that was the hallmark of his career.	但是，弗里德曼一贯的反政府干预也导致他采取令众多保守派政治敏感不悦的立场，突出了作为其事业特征的学术诚实。


For example, his opposition to governments’ authority to prohibit or regulate human behavior extended to licensing requirements for doctors and car drivers, as well as to anti-drug laws, which he believed operated as a subsidy to organized crime.	例如，他反对政府禁止或者调节人类行为的权力的立场扩展到对于医生和汽车司机的执照要求，以及反毒品法律。 他认为反毒品法律实施实际上成为了有组织犯罪的补贴。


Likewise, he expended considerable effort agitating against America’s military draft.	同样，他大力反对美国的征兵制度。


Although he did not win all his intellectual battles, rarely can it be said with as much certainty that a man was great, and that the work that he has left behind will retain enduring influence.	尽管他并未赢得所有的学术战役，但是，弗里德曼是一个伟人，其身后著作影响深远，如此确定无疑地评说并不是常见的。


I live in a Poland that is now free, and I consider Milton Friedman to be one of the main intellectual architects of our liberty.	我生活的波兰现在已经自由了，而我认为，弗里德曼是我们自由的主要的智识上的设计师。


Libya After Qaddafi	利比亚的后卡扎菲时代


BENGHAZI – Middle Eastern autocrats routinely warn their people of rivers of blood, Western occupation, poverty, chaos, and Al Qaeda if their regimes are toppled.	班加西——中东的独裁统治者总是警告人们一旦其政权被推翻就会造成血流成河、西方占领、贫穷、混乱和基地组织肆虐的后果。


Those threats were heard in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, and – rendered in black-comedy style – in Libya.	这种威胁在突尼斯、埃及、也门、巴林、叙利亚已经是家常便饭，而在利比亚更是呈现某种黑色喜剧风格。


But there is a strong belief across the region that the costs of removing autocracies, as high as they might be, are low compared to the damage inflicted by the current rulers.	但中东地区的所有民众坚信，就算推翻独裁政府的代价昂贵，但是与当前统治者所造成的损害相比也相对较小。


In short, freedom is worth the price.	简言之，自由值得人们付出代价。


In Libya, four scenarios may negatively affect prospects for democratization: civil/tribal war, military rule, becoming “stuck in transition,” and partition.	在利比亚，内战/部族战争、军事统治、“在过渡期间陷入停顿”以及分裂等四种情形可能给民主化前景造成消极的影响。


Given the high price Libyans have paid, those scenarios should be prevented rather than cured.	由于利比亚人已经付出了惨痛的代价，我们应该竭力避免上述情况，而不是等真的出现了再加以弥补。


The civil/tribal war scenario is the worst risk.	内战/部族战争爆发无疑是最坏的情况。


Egypt’s revolutionaries understood this.	埃及革命者对此有着清醒的把握。


When sectarian violence erupted there following the removal of Hosni Mubarak, the revolutionary coalitions adopted the slogan, “You won’t gloat over this, Mubarak.”	在胡斯尼·穆巴拉克下台后宗派暴力爆发之际，革命联盟喊出了“穆巴拉克，你不会有机会幸灾乐祸”的口号。


Repressive dictatorships cannot win free and fair elections.	压制民众的独裁政权无法赢得自由和公正的选举。


But they can use extreme violence to consolidate their control over the state, its people, and its institutions.	但他们却能利用极端暴力巩固自己对国家、人民和政府机构的控制。


So, to win, Libya’s Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi has deliberately and successfully turned a civil-resistance campaign into an armed conflict.	于是，为了取胜，利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲上校故意把一次民间抵抗运动演变为一次武装冲突。


That will have ramifications in the post-authoritarian context.	类似的武装冲突将在后独裁时期造成后果。


A study published by Columbia University on civil resistance has shown that the probability of a country relapsing into civil war following a successful anti-dictatorship armed campaign is 43%, versus 28% when the campaign is unarmed.	哥伦比亚大学对于民间抵抗运动的研究表明，一个国家在爆发反抗独裁的武装运动后有43%的几率会陷入内战，而倘若民主运动不涉及暴力，内战爆发的几率只有28%。


According to the same study, which was based on 323 cases of armed and unarmed opposition campaigns between 1900 and 2006, the likelihood of democratic transition within five years following a successful armed opposition campaign is only 3%, compared to 51% when campaigns were unarmed.	同样是这次基于1900至2006年间323例武装及非武装反抗运动的研究结果显示，在反对派发起武装运动成功五年内实现民主过渡的可能性只有3%，而倘若没有爆发武装冲突，这一比例将是51%。


Libya, of course, can survive the gloomy prospect of post-authoritarian civil war.	当然，利比亚有可能摆脱后独裁时期的内战阴影。


But this requires containing tribal and regional polarization, as well as the rivalries between the Interim National Council (INC) and the Military Council (MC), and between senior military commanders.	但这不仅要遏制部族和地区分裂、还要缓解临时全国委员会和军事委员会、以及高级军事指挥官之间的对立现象。


Violent polarization has developed not only between Eastern and Western tribes, but also between some of the Western tribes.	不仅在东西方部族之间，就连在西方某些部族之间也产生了暴力分裂的现象。


Last month, for example, armed clashes erupted between rebels in al-Zintan and the villagers of al-Rayyaniya, 15 kilometers away.	比如上个月，相距15公里的阿尔辛塔叛乱份子和阿尔莱茵村民之间就爆发了武装冲突。


Six people were killed – a reminder of what can happen if violent polarization continues between neighboring towns and villages.	六人在这次冲突中丧失，这提醒人们如果任由临近城镇和村庄之间的暴力分裂继续下去，将会产生什么后果。


Vendetta politics is not unknown in Libya, and, in an armed society comprising more than 120 tribes – including around 30 with significant numbers and resources – it can become extremely dangerous.	利比亚对仇杀政治并不陌生，在由120多个部落（其中包括约30个人口众多、资源丰富的大部落）组成的武装团体中，部族仇杀可能是极端危险的。


Another negative scenario is military rule.	军事统治是另外一种消极情况。


Several figures from the “free officers” – the group that plotted the 1969 coup against the monarchy – are leading the INC.	“自由军官组织”的几位人物正在把持临时全国委员会， 1969年推翻君主统治的政变正是上述组织的杰作。


They include General Abd al-Fattah Younis, General Soliman Mahmoud, Colonel Khalifa Haftar, Major Mohamed Najm, and others.	这几个人包括阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·尤尼斯将军、索利曼·马哈茂德将军、哈利法·赫夫特上校、穆罕默德·吉纳姆少校等。


Those figures hold a mix of historical legitimacy, for participating in the 1969 coup, and current legitimacy, for helping the 17th February revolution.	上述几人既因为参与1969年政变而具有历史合法性，又因为帮助2月17日革命而具有现实合法性。


They also belong to several large tribes, guaranteeing wide tribal representation if a military council were to take power, as in Egypt.	此外他们还分属于几个大的部落，这样就能确保如果像埃及那样由军事委员会进行接管，那么部族利益将会得到广泛的代表。


Unlike Egypt, however, whoever takes power in Libya will not necessarily inherit poor economic conditions that could threaten their legitimacy and undermine their popularity.	与埃及不同，无论由谁��管利比亚政权，都不必面对可能威胁其自身合法性并破坏其公众形象的糟糕的经济状况。


This might lead a group of senior officers to rule directly, especially if victory in Libya comes militarily.	这可能导致一伙高级军官直接参与统治，倘若利比亚革命借助军事手段取得胜利这种可能性就更大。


A move by army officers in Tripoli against Qaddafi and his sons might end the conflict, with military commanders getting the credit – and the political capital.	由的黎波里的军官对卡扎菲及其子采取军事行动可能结束冲突，但功劳和政治资本可能都会落入军事指挥官的腰包。


But four decades of military-based dictatorship may be enough for Libyans, a majority of whom never really benefited from their country’s wealth or potential.	但利比亚人可能已经受够了四十年的军事独裁统治，他们中的绝大多数从来没有从国家财富或经济发展潜力中得到任何好处。


When it comes to producing terrorists and undocumented immigrants – two critical issues for Europe – Arab military dictators have an inglorious record.	说到制造欧洲所面临的两大问题（恐怖份子和非法移民），阿拉伯军事独裁领导却有着并不光彩的记录。


Algeria in the 1990’s is a potent reminder of this, and Western governments do not want the vicious cycle of repressive autocrats producing violent theocrats and refugees to restart.	20世纪90年代的阿尔及利亚就是这方面的代表，西方政府不希望压迫性独裁政权制造暴力神权领袖和难民的恶性循环再次开始重复。


Getting “stuck in transition” is a third possible scenario, with Libya remaining in a “gray zone” – neither a fully-fledged democracy nor a dictatorship, but “semi-free.”	在“过渡期间陷于停顿”是第三种可能的状况，倘若这种状况发生，利比亚将会陷入既非完全民主亦非独裁统治的“半自由”的“灰色地带”。


This means regular elections, a democratic constitution, and civil society, coupled with electoral fraud, skewed representation, human rights violations, and restrictions on civil liberties.	这也意味着定期选举、民主宪法、公民社会与选举舞弊、歪曲民意、人权侵犯和限制公民自由并存的结果。


Getting stuck in transition usually kills the momentum for democratic change, and widespread corruption, weak state institutions, and lack of security serve to reinforce a myth of the “just autocrat.”	“过渡期间陷于停顿”通常会破坏民主变革的势头，同时大面积腐败、国家机构的羸弱和安全的缺失反而会加强“和独裁没有区别”的神话。


Vladimir Putin’s rule in Russia illustrates this outcome.	弗拉基米尔·普京在俄国的统治就是这种结局的代表。


Unfortunately, a study published in the Journal of Democracy showed that out of the 100 countries that were designated “in transition” between 1970 and 2000, only 20 became fully democratic (for example, Chile, Argentina, Poland, and Taiwan).	令人遗憾的是，《民主杂志》公布的研究结果表明1970到2000年间被认定为“处于过渡阶段”的100个国家中，只有20个成功完成了民主过渡（如智利、阿根廷、波兰和台湾）。


Five relapsed into brutal dictatorships (including Uzbekistan, Algeria, Turkmenistan, and Belarus), while the rest were stuck somewhere in transition.	另有五个国家退回到残酷的独裁统治（包括乌兹别克斯坦、阿尔及利亚、土库曼斯坦和白俄罗斯），而其他国家都在过渡期的某个阶段陷入停滞之中。


Given Libya’s lack of democratic experience, some view this as a likely outcome in the post-Qaddafi era.	考虑到利比亚缺乏民主经验，有人认为停滞将成为后卡扎菲时代最有可能的结果。


But Libya is not the only country that has tried to move from dictatorship to democracy with weak institutions and strong tribal identities.	但利比亚并不是试图从独裁转向民主的制度羸弱而部族强悍的唯一国家。


Albania, Mongolia, and India successfully passed more complicated tests – and offer some useful lessons in democratic transitions under unfavourable conditions.	阿尔巴尼亚、蒙古和印度成功经受了更为复杂的考验——为不利条件下的民主过渡积累了有益的经验。


The fourth scenario is partition, with the old three-province, Ottoman-style setup commonly mentioned: Cyrenaica (east), Fezzan (south), and Tripolitania (west).	第四种可能性是陷入分裂，其中以经常提及的昔兰尼加（东）、费赞（南）、的黎波里（西）的奥斯曼式老三省版图可能性最大。


Cyrenaica is Qaddafi-free, Tripolitania is not, and Fezzan did not fully join the revolution.	昔兰尼加基本不受卡扎菲控制，的黎波里则在卡扎菲控制之下，费赞并没有完全参与到革命之中。


But the administrative borders of these districts were never fully established, and they have changed at least eight times since 1951.	但上述地区的行政边界从来就未曾明确划定过，而且从1951年后至少更改了8次之多。


In 2007, Libya had 22 sha‘biya (administrative districts), not three.	2007年时利比亚还拥有22个sha‘biya（行政区），而目前只剩下3个。


All of these scenarios will be affected by outcomes in Egypt and Tunisia.	所有可能情形都会受到埃及和突尼斯结果的影响。


In the case of democratic transitions, a success nearby often helps at home.	在民主过渡的进程中，邻国的成功变革通常有助于国内民主化。


Either country, or both, could offer Libya successful transition models, erecting an important obstacle to military dictatorship or civil war.	这两个国家中的任何一个都会为军事独裁或内战竖起重要的障碍，并为利比亚树立成功转型的榜样。


Libya Calling	利比亚的邀请


VALLETTA, MALTA – The recent signing in Tripoli of “a comprehensive claims settlement” between the United States and Libya marks a new beginning not only in US-Libya relations, but between Libya and the rest of the world.	马耳他瓦莱塔——最近在的黎波里签署的美国—利比亚“全面理赔协定”，不仅标志着美利关系的新起点，也是利比亚和世界其他国家关系新纪元的标志。


The agreement provides a process for compensating the victims of attacks ranging from the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, to the US air strikes on Tripoli and Benghazi in 1986.	这一协定规定了对以往各种袭击的受害者的赔偿程序，赔偿范围涵盖了从1988年泛美103航班在苏格兰小镇洛克比遇袭到1986年美国对利比亚城市的黎波里和班加西的空袭的受害者。


It thus removes a final hurdle to Libya establishing normal diplomatic and economic relations with the West and opens the way for US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s visit to Tripoli this week.	因此，全面理赔协定为利比亚和西方国家建立正常的外交和经贸关系扫清了最后的障碍，并为美国国务卿赖斯本周访问的黎波里创造了条件。


The Joint Statement, while clinically welcoming the agreement, states that both parties “thereby turn their focus to the future of their bilateral relationship,” underscoring “the benefits an expansion of ties would provide for both countries as well as for the American and Libyan peoples.”	在签署协定后的联合声明中，在对这一协定表示欢迎的同时，声明双方“从此将把关注的焦点转向未来的双边关系”，强调了“双边关系的发展给两国以及两国人民带来的实惠”。


This is a far cry from recent years, when staying at a Libyan-owned hotel would make you subject to a US felony charge!	这和近年来的状况真是大相径庭，那时，留宿一家利比亚人所有的酒店都可能使人遭受美国的重罪指控！


Clearly, the way is now open for US-Libya relations to move forward in the same way that the release of a group of Bulgarian nurses, who were jailed in Libya on charges of deliberately infecting Libyan children with AIDS, unblocked European Union-Libya relations.	显然，现在美利关系可以用和欧盟—利比亚关系同样的方式向前发展：在欧盟—利比亚关系中，利比亚释放了关押在利比亚的一群被指控故意将艾滋病传染给利比亚儿童的保加利亚护士，这一事件为欧利关系扫清了障碍。


Indeed, Libya has also just strengthened its relations with the EU: Seif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libya’s long-serving ruler, Muammar al-Gaddafi, recently declared that soon the two sides should be able to sign an Association agreement, giving Libyan goods access to European markets.	事实上，利比亚也已经加强了其与欧盟的关系：执政多年的利比亚统治者卡扎菲之子塞伊夫·伊斯拉姆·卡扎菲最近宣布，利比亚和欧盟很快就能签署一个联系协定，这个协定将使利比亚的产品能够进入欧洲市场。


In his effort to restore seemingly irreparably damaged relations with the West, Gaddafi has played the oil and gas cards that he holds extremely well.	在修复与西方似乎无法补救的关系的努力中，卡扎菲极好地打出了他拥有的石油和天然气这两张牌。


Indeed, the West’s hunger for energy brought invitations for Libya’s leader to visit France, Spain, and Portugal within the past year.	事实上，在过去一年中，西方国家对能源的如饥似渴使利比亚领导人获得了法国、西班牙和葡萄牙的访问邀请。


This opening is welcome, because Libya remains heavily engaged with the other countries of the Sahel, and across Africa in general, as well as with Arab states.	这个开端是令人欢迎的，因为利比亚与其他萨赫勒国家、非洲全境以及阿拉伯国家仍然交往极其密切。


A more development-minded Libya could help dampen tensions in these vital regions.  Indeed, Gaddafi’s emphatic call for Libya to embrace the market economy could have a sort of revolutionary domino effect among North Africa’s “dirigiste” economies, improving the chances for a revitalization of plans to open and integrate the Maghreb Union economies.	一个更加注重发展的利比亚有助于缓和这些关键地区的紧张局势。 的确，卡扎菲决绝地倡导利比亚实行市场经济可能对北非的“政府管制型”经济模式有一种革命性的多米诺骨牌效应，从而提高了开启和整合马格里布联盟各经济体的复兴计划的机率。


Libya’s newfound engagement with the US and the EU represents not only a major shift in its international policies and diplomatic posture, but also a major internal reorientation, because the country now wants to develop an economy that is not exclusively based on oil.	利比亚新近同美国和欧盟的交往不仅显示了其国际政策和外交姿态的重大转变，也是一次重要的内部重新定位，因为现在它想发展一种不仅仅是以石油为基础的经济体制。


Indeed, like so many post-communist countries over the past 20 years, Libya is now making the gradual and at times painful transition to a market economy.	的确，像过去20年中许多后共产主义国家那样，利比亚现在正在渐进并时不时地要经历痛楚地过渡到市场经济。


Given that Islamic fundamentalism breeds in economic despair, Libya’s rulers seem to want to take particular care that this process does not create an underclass of victims who might fall prey to the call of religious fanatics.	鉴于伊斯兰原教旨主义滋生于经济绝望，利比亚的统治者似乎特别关注这一点：这个过程不要产生有可能会成为宗教狂热牺牲品的改革受害者下层群体。


Of course, it is unrealistic and naïve to expect that the changes now underway in Libya will result in a rapid transition to European-style democracy.	当然，期待现在正在利比亚发生的种种变化会导致其迅速向欧洲式的民主过渡，是不现实和幼稚的。


Libyan politics will undoubtedly continue to be based on Gaddafi’s “Green Book” and “people power,” as expressed in its People’s Congress.	毫无疑问，正如利比亚的人民代表大会表述的那样，利比亚的政治仍将会继续建立在卡扎菲的“绿皮书”和“人民力量”理念之上。