The TPP’s initial scope was relatively modest, involving the United States and a range of trading partners (Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam).	TPP的初始范围相对较小，包括了美国和一系列贸易伙伴国（澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、智利、马来西亚、墨西哥、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡和越南）。


But now Japan is on board, South Korea is watching closely, and there is potential for engaging with China through this or a similar framework in the foreseeable future.	但如今日本也加入进来，韩国正在密切关注，而在可以预见的未来，中国也有可能加入TPP或类似的框架。


The typical approach when seeking to finalize an agreement aimed at reducing trade barriers – while attempting to protect labor and environmental standards – is to ask for less, not more, from those on the other side of the table.	对于旨在降低贸易壁垒——同时保护劳动和环境标准——的贸易协定，通常的促成办法是减少而非增加对谈判桌另一面的要求。


But at this stage, the TPP is different: the odds of success would be much greater if the US attached the additional requirement that participating countries do not engage in currency manipulation.	但在现阶段，TPP并非如此：如果美国加上参与国不能从事货币操纵的附加要求，TPP的成功机会将大很多。


One of the major shortcomings of the global trading system in recent decades has been the absence of an effective constraint on countries that intervene heavily in order to keep their currencies undervalued.	近几十年来，全球贸易体系的一个重要缺陷是缺少有效手段约束各国大幅干预以维持货币低估。


A significantly undervalued currency implies a potentially large trade surplus.	显著低估的货币意味着潜在的巨额贸易盈余。


Ordinarily, a large surplus puts upward pressure on the country’s currency – making its exports less competitive and boosting demand for imported goods and services.	通常，巨额盈余会给一国货币带来升值压力——使其出口竞争力下降、提高对进口商品和服务的需求。


But a country’s authorities can prevent appreciation for a prolonged period of time by buying up foreign currency.	但一国当局可以通过购买外汇在相当长的一段时间里阻止本币升值。


Such intervention results in the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves – much of which is held in the form of US government debt.	这种干预导致外汇储备的积累——其中大部分以美国政府债务的形式持有。


In one way, this benefits the US by helping to keep interest rates lower than they would be otherwise.	从某种程度上说，这有利于美国，帮助美国维持了低利率。


But currency manipulation is also an unfair way to gain a trading advantage, with excessive negative effects on trading partners.	但货币操纵不公平的获得贸易优势的方式，对贸易伙伴形成了过度消极的影响。


The International Monetary Fund was founded, in part, to prevent precisely this type of beggar-thy-neighbor economic strategy, which resulted in “competitive devaluations” during the 1930s.	国际货币基金组织（IMF）的成立从某种程度上就是为了防止这一导致了20世纪30年代“竞争性贬值”的以邻为壑经济战略。


Unfortunately, the IMF in recent years has proved unable or unwilling to do so.	不幸的是，近几年来，IMF根本无法或不愿意这样做。


Similarly, the US Treasury is legally required to determine if a country is intervening to an unfair and unreasonable extent.	类似地，根据法律，美国财政部必须评估一国的干预是否达到不公平、不合理的程度。


In practice, however, the Treasury’s reports on this issue are generally toothless and lead to no real consequences.	但是，在实践中，美联储关于这一问题的报告通常没有什么效力，也不会形成真正的后果。


Fred Bergsten and Joseph Gagnon, my colleagues at the Peterson Institute, have proposed including a currency clause in any TPP deal.	我的彼得森研究所（Peterson Institute）同事弗雷德·伯格斯坦（Fred Bergsten）和约瑟夫·加尼翁（Joseph Gagnon）建议在TPP协议中加入货币条款。


In essence, this would amount to the signatories agreeing not to manipulate their currencies.	理论上，这会让签署国同意不操纵货币。


Such a clause could come with stronger or weaker teeth.	这一条款的松紧程度大有商榷余地。


The important thing is to shift norms and expectations.	重要的是改变规范和预期。


Some US officials are supportive of this approach to the TPP; others are resisting it.	一些美国官员支持这一TPP方针； 也有人反对。


But the skeptics should think hard about the likely dynamics in the US Congress when the TPP comes up for a vote.	但怀疑派应该仔细考虑当TPP来到国会表决时会引起什么动态。


There is strong support on Capitol Hill, from both Democrats and Republicans, for finding some way to limit currency manipulation.	限制货币操纵在国会山的两党中间都有很强的支持。


Even people who are very much in favor of freer trade – and even of some version of the TPP, like Bergsten and Gagnon – believe that some Asian countries have overstepped the boundaries of reasonable behavior.	甚至非常支持自由贸易——甚至TPP的某些版本——的人，比如伯格斯坦和加尼翁，也认为某些亚洲国家的行为已经超过了合理的边界。


With the level of intervention by major countries currently limited (China) or non-existent (Japan), this is an ideal moment to include a currency clause in the TPP, as most countries are less likely to become defensive.	目前，主要国家的干预或者受到了限制（中国），或者已不复存在（日本），在TPP中纳入货币条款正是时候，因为大部分国家都不太可能会严重抵触。


Participating countries could allow their currencies to float, or they could operate a fixed exchange rate.	参与国可以让货币浮动，也可以维持固定汇率。


In the latter case, however, they must commit not to run large current-account surpluses and accumulate excess foreign-exchange reserves.	但是，若维持固定汇率，必须承诺不出现巨额经常项目盈余和累积外汇储备。


Any blatant and repeated violation of this commitment would – and should – result in the loss of the special privileges granted under the TPP.	任何公然和反腐违反这一承诺都将——也应该——导致失去TPP所授予的特权。


Of course, how the politics plays out will depend on what happens in the US mid-term congressional elections in November, as well as how key figures position themselves for the presidential election in 2016.	当然，政治如何开展将取决于11月美国国会中期选举的结果，以及关键人物怎么定位参与2016年的总统选举。


But both parties are generally interested in supporting free trade, along responsible lines – and recognize legitimate concerns.	但总体而言两党都有兴趣沿着负责任的路线支持自由贸易——并承认合理的顾虑。


Currency manipulation has become a little too ugly in recent years – with associated adverse effects on sectors and communities in the US – for elected representatives to ignore.	货币操纵在近几年中可谓声名狼藉——也给美国相关行业和社区造成了不利影响——当选代表不可能对此视而不见。


It is to be hoped that the other TPP countries also come to understand that the agreement is more likely to work if it strongly discourages currency manipulation.	但愿其他TPP国家也能明白，如果TPP协定强烈反对货币操纵，就更有可能发生作用。


Getting the Trans-Pacific Partnership Right	正确对待跨太平洋合作伙伴关系问题


WASHINGTON, DC – The United States Congress has now given President Barack Obama so-called fast-track negotiating authority to conclude the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the proposed mega-regional free-trade agreement among the US and 11 other countries.	华盛顿—美国国会已经授予总统奥巴马所谓的快速通道（fast-track）谈判权以完成包括美国和其他11国在内的大型地区自由贸易协定跨太平洋洋合作伙伴关系（TPP）。


But Obama’s victory was not an easy one: Members of his own Democratic Party overwhelmingly opposed fast-track authority, which limits Congress to a single up-or-down vote on finished trade agreements, thereby ruling out amendments.	但奥巴马的胜利来之不易：他自己所在的民主党议员一边倒地反对快速通道授权，这意味着国会只能肯定或否定贸易协定，排除了修订的可能。


The fast-track measure, officially known as Trade Promotion Authority, passed only because Obama was able to rely on rare backing from the Republican majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.	快速通道办法，即官方所谓的贸易促进授权（Trade Promotion Authority），之所以能够通过，唯一的原因是奥巴马能够罕见地在众议院和参议院都依靠共和党多数的支持。


But the Democrats have a point.	但民主党的反对不无道理。


They want the Obama administration to ensure that the TPP includes core international labor standards for all participants, a high level of environmental protection, and access to affordable medicines, among other measures.	他们希望奥巴马政府确保TPP包含适用于所有参与方的核心国际劳动标准、高水平环境保护措施、平价医疗和其他措施。


If the administration takes these entirely reasonable demands on board, the resulting agreement would have considerable bipartisan support.	如果奥巴马政府在谈判中提出这些完全合理的要求，那么协定将获得两党的大力支持。


If it chooses to ignore such demands, the final agreement would be much more polarizing – and would be approved by Congress with very little Democratic support.	如果奥巴马选择忽略这些要求，最终协定将更加极化——国会将在几乎没有民主党支持的情况下通过该协定。


Though Obama has promised that the TPP will be the most progressive trade agreement in history, which is achievable, the shroud of secrecy that surrounds almost all details of the negotiations has made it difficult to evaluate claims and counterclaims on this point.	尽管奥巴马承诺TPP将是历史上最进步的贸易协定——这一目标可以实现——但关于谈判的细节被严格保密，这导致现阶段无法评估正反两方的意见。


But once the agreement is concluded, it will be published in full, leaving no possibility of obfuscation.	但一旦协定完成，就会完整公开，不会有任何模糊之处。


And the markers that have been laid down by congressional Democrats are very clear, quite specific, and well thought-out.	而国会民主党提出的意见十分明确、具体、深思熟虑。


In fact, in an agreement between House Democrats and former President George W. Bush’s administration in May 2007, almost all of the key principles were already spelled out in considerable detail.	事实上，在2007年5月众议院民主党与前总统小布什之间的一份协议中，几乎所有关键原则事先都进行了相当详细的公开。


In 2005, only 15 House Democrats voted for the Central American Free Trade Agreement, precisely because its terms on labor standards and the environment were so weak.	2005年，只有15位民主党众议员投票支持中美洲自由贸易协定（Central American Free Trade Agreement），原因正是劳动标准和环境保护条款太弱。


In 2007, by contrast, 109 House Democrats voted in favor of the US-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, precisely because its terms had been adjusted as requested and in line with the May agreement.	相反，2007年，109位民主党众议员投票赞成美国-秘鲁贸易促进协定（US-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement），原因正是其条款根据5月协定的要求做出了相应调整。


And, in October 2011, the House approved the much-debated US-Korea Free Trade Agreement with 59 Democrats in favor.	而在2011年10月，众议院通过了广受争议的美国-韩国自由贸易协定（US-Korea Free Trade Agreement），59位民主党投了支持票。


The extent of congressional Democratic support depends directly on what exactly is in any trade agreement.	国会民主党支持度与贸易协定的具体内容直接相关。


The main principles in the May 2007 agreement are straightforward and difficult to oppose.	2007年5月协定的主要原则非常直白，难以反驳。


Workers should be allowed to form trade unions.	工人应该被允许组织工会。


Child labor should be abolished.	童工应该禁止。


All forms of forced or compulsory labor – including human trafficking – should be prohibited.	一切形式的被迫或义务劳动——包括贩卖人口——应该禁止。


Vague promises on these issues are not acceptable; countries must enter into compliance before a trade agreement takes effect.	绝不接受这些问题上模棱两可的承诺； 各国必须在贸易协定生效前同意遵守这些原则。


Moreover, the agreement calls for the inclusion of existing international environmental standards in free-trade agreements, including rules concerning pollution and endangered animals.	此外，该协定要求在自由贸易协定中纳入国际环境标准，包括与污染和濒危动物相关的规则。


Likewise, such agreements should support fair access to pharmaceutical patents and to the data used to prove the safety of medical treatments.	类似地，这些协定应该支持公平获得药品专利和用于证明医疗手段安全性的数据。


And the May 2007 agreement makes it clear that “foreign investors in the US will not be accorded greater substantive rights with respect to investment protections than US investors in the US.”	2007年5月协定还明确了“在美外国投资者不可获得比美国投资者在美国所获得的更大的投资保护实质权利。 ”


In a paper issued in January 2015, and again in a major speech in May, Sander Levin, the ranking Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, applied these principles to all of the outstanding issues regarding the TPP.	众议院筹款委员会（House Ways and Means Committee）民主党领袖桑德·莱文（Sander Levin）在2015年发表文章指出，接着又在5月的重要讲话重申，这些原则适用于所有与TPP有关的待解决问题。


It would not be difficult for the administration to give Levin and his colleagues what they want.	奥巴马政府给出莱文及其同事想要的东西并不难。


Some participants in the TPP may indeed balk at being required to raise labor or environmental standards; in such case, however, policymakers need to ask whether these countries should get easier access to the US market.	一些TPP的参与国也许确实不满于被要求提高劳动或环境标准； 但是，在这个案例中，决策者需要问一问这些国家是否应该更容易地进入美国市场。


Similarly, access to affordable medicines is something other countries desperately need; it is large pharmaceutical companies that are not entirely enthusiastic.	类似地，获得平价药物也是其他国家所渴望的； 对此不完全热衷的是大制药公司。


The most difficult challenge for the Obama administration may be the issue of currency manipulation.	奥巴马政府最困难的挑战也许是货币操纵问题。


Democrats are pushing for provisions to prohibit or limit currency-market intervention by central banks that is intended to give a country’s exporters a competitive edge.	民主党正在推动禁止或限制货币市场被意在让本国出口商获得竞争优势的央行的操纵。


This is also a huge potential problem with the TPP, because competitive devaluations can swamp any other gains from trade by an order of magnitude, with substantial negative effects on US jobs.	这也是TPP的一个巨大的潜在问题，因为竞争性贬值将吞噬贸易所带来的任何数量级的好处，给美国就造成巨大的消极影响。


The administration urgently needs to take this point on board.	奥巴马政府非常需要将这一点提上谈判桌。


“Free trade” has always been something of a misnomer.	“自由贸易”一直都有用词不当之嫌。


Yes, the logic of market-based global commerce is very strong.	诚然，基于市场的全球商业是一个很强的逻辑。


But every market exists within a specific set of rules, which are not random and are not handed down from the heavens.	但每个市场都存在与具体的规则体系中，这些规则体系不是随机的，也不是从天而降的。


The TPP represents an important opportunity to write better rules for international trade and investment.	TPP是一次给国际贸易和投资制定更好的规则的重要机会。


But we are not there yet.	但我们没有做好准备。


Will the TPP Help Latin America?	TPP能帮助拉丁美洲吗？


SANTIAGO – With the International Monetary Fund having just cut its forecasts for economic growth in Latin America for the fifth year in a row, the region’s countries are casting about for ways to reignite investment and boost productivity.	圣地亚哥—国际货币基金组织（IMF）刚刚连续第五年降低了拉丁美洲经济增长预测，该地区各国正在竭力寻找重振投资和刺激生产率的办法。


They should look to fast-growing Asia, argue advocates of the Transpacific Trade Partnership (TPP), the proposed mega-regional trade accord that would bind together 12 Pacific Rim countries.	跨太平洋贸易合作伙伴关系（Transpacific Trade Partnership，TPP）支持者认为，它们应该把目光转向高速增长的亚洲。 TPP是一项正在讨论中的贸易协定，包括12个环太平洋国家。


But should they?	果真如此吗？


If done right, the TPP could help Mexico, Peru, and Chile – the accord’s Latin American members – make the leap to high-productivity exports based on innovation.	如果处置得当，TPP能够帮助墨西哥、秘鲁和智利——该协定的拉美成员国——实现基于创新的搞生产率出口激增。


But that would require the TPP to foster, not impede, the flow of knowledge around the Pacific Rim.	但这需要TPP促进而不是阻碍环太平洋的知识流动。


Regrettably, the United States is insisting on a series of intellectual-property provisions that serve the interests of US-based firms, but do little to create a sound environment for innovation elsewhere.	遗憾的是，美国坚持要在TPP中加入一系列有利于美国企业但无助于为其他地区创新建立可靠环境的只是产权条款。


That needs to change – and soon – so that years of talks can be concluded successfully.	这一点需要改变——尽快改变——以使维持多年的谈判最终成功。


The growth challenges for the three Latin American TPP countries are very different.	三个拉美TPP成员国所面临的增长挑战大相径庭。


In the last two decades, Mexico has managed to diversify its export base and is now a major supplier of industrial goods to the US and Canada.	过去二十年中，墨西哥成功地实现了出口基础多样化，现在已成为美国和加拿大工业品的主要提供者之一。


The bad news is that Mexico’s growth prospects have become inextricably tied to those of its huge neighbor to the north.	坏消息是墨西哥的增长前景极其依赖于其规模庞大的北方邻国。


The good news is that the US is growing faster than any other major industrialized economy, so Mexico can look forward – according to the IMF – to a couple of years of accelerating economic expansion.	好消息是美国正在以比其他任何主要工业化经济体都要快的速度增长，因此墨西哥可以期待——根据IMF的数据——未来几年实现经济扩张加速。


Peru and Chile, by contrast, are natural-resource exporters that derived huge benefits from the China-driven commodity boom of the last decade.	相反，秘鲁和智利是自然资源出口国，大大受益于过去十年中国推动的大宗商品繁荣。


Today commodity prices are down, and so is growth.	如今，大宗商品价格出现了下跌，两国增长亦然。


Because it is difficult to become ever-more efficient at producing a ton of copper or a pound of fruit (and, in Chile’s case, the grade of copper ore is fast declining), further growth has to come from diversification: moving capital and labor to new sectors, where productivity is higher.	生产一吨铜或一磅水果的效率很难继续提升（在智利，铜矿石等级在迅速下降），后续增长必须来自多样化：将资本和劳动力用于新的上产率更高的部门。


That is where Pacific Rim trade and the TPP come in.	环太平洋贸易和TPP的作用就在这里。


A firm in Thailand, the Philippines, or Vietnam can develop a new product line by plugging into the huge East Asian value chain and producing, for example, a tiny component which, along with myriad other components, will be assembled into a smartphone at a factory in China.	泰国、菲律宾或越南的企业可以通过加入巨大的东亚价值链开发新生产线并生产（比如）某个小部件，然后与其他大量部件一起在中国的工厂组装成智能手机。


Firms in Chile or Peru – or Colombia or Uruguay, for that matter – enjoy no such opportunities.	智利或秘鲁 ——哥伦比亚或乌拉圭也是如此——的企业就无法获得这种机会。


South America is outside the world’s main value chains. Innovative firms face the uphill challenge of developing entire new products and selling them in geographically and economically distant markets.	南美处于世界主要价值链之外，创新企业面临开发全套新产品并把它们出售给地理和经济距离无比遥远的市场。


The TPP could help change this by easing trade in intermediate inputs and helping build Pacific-wide value chains.	TPP可以让中间投入品贸易更加便利，有利于构建泛太平洋价值链，从而有助于改变这一局面。


Particularly valuable would be straightening out the spaghetti bowl of “rules of origin” – the regulations dictating when inputs produced in other countries can be used in products that will qualify for free-trade benefits.	特别有价值的是理顺“原产地规则”的混乱情况。 原产地规则规定什么时候产于其他国家的投入品可以用于符合自由贸易利益的产品。


So far so good.	到这里一切都好。


Optimists can envision a new generation of trans-Pacific flows of trade, investment, and knowledge, with benefits for all.	乐观派可以憧憬新一波跨太平洋贸易、投资和知识流，让各方都获益。


But then the TPP’s boosters have to contend with the obstinacy of Japanese rice farmers (Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is vowing to address that) and of US patent and copyright holders.	但TPP支持者必须面临顽固不化的日本稻农（日本首相安倍晋三承诺会解决这个问题）和美国专利和版权持有人。


Intellectual property has become one of the most contentious issues in the TPP negotiations, and it is not hard to see why.	知识产权已成为TPP谈判中最具争议的内容之一，原因不难理解。


The US is pushing for longer copyright protection for published works, music, and films.	美国正在追求延长出版作品、音乐和影片的版权保护期限。


It also wants technical changes that would effectively mean much longer patent terms for pharmaceuticals, make the approval process lengthier for generic drug makers, and extend protections for biologic medicines.	它还希望加入一些技术变化，从而在事实上大大延长药品的专利期，延长基因药物制药商的批准流程，延长生物制药的保护期。


The list of controversial US demands is long.	引起争议的美国 的要求数不胜数。


One that has particularly enraged online activists would classify cache copies of websites resulting from Internet searches as temporary copies, so that users would potentially be subject to fines for copyright infringement.	有一个引起在线活跃分子暴怒的要求是将网站来自互联网搜索的缓存副本归为暂时副本，因此用户可能因为侵犯版权而遭到罚款。


There are also concerns about limits to freedom of expression if materials are taken down for alleged copyright violations.	还有人担心，如果材料因为被控侵犯版权而被记录下来，将限制言论自由。


Many of these provisions are absent from international agreements currently in force – such as the World Trade Organization’s TRIPS accord – and from the bilateral free-trade agreements that the US itself has negotiated with a host of countries.	这些条款中有许多都不见于目前有效的国际协议（如世界贸易组织的TRIPS协议）和美国本身与许多国家谈判的双边贸易协议。


In other cases, protection periods would rise considerably.	在其他例子中，保护期可以大幅延长。


For copyrights, the US is demanding 95 years of protection after publication, or 120 years after creation, whereas TRIPS provides for 50 years and US agreements with Australia, Chile, Korea and Peru specify 70 years.	就版权来说，美国要求出版后90年或创作完成后120年，而TRIPS的期限是50年，美国与澳大利亚、智利、韩国的秘鲁为70年。


No one disagrees with the need for strong intellectual-property protection.	没人反对需要强力保护知识产权。


If inventors cannot expect to be rewarded for their achievements, they will stop inventing or investors will stop funding their ventures.	如果发明家无法指望因为他们的成就而获得奖赏，他们就会停止发明，投资者也会停止资助他们从事发明冒险。


But most economists agree that such incentives must be balanced against the need to accelerate knowledge dissemination and absorption, and that the optimum is somewhere in the middle.	但大部分经济学家都同意，这一激励必须权衡加快知识传播和吸收的需要，最优点在于两者的某个折中。


In this sense, the US demand for longer terms of patent and copyright protection is arbitrary, because they are not founded on a clear-cut case for enhanced economic efficiency.	从这个角度，美���延长专利和版权保护期的要求可谓“任性”，因为这绝非明显有利于经济效率的做法。


The politics of the issue is tricky for the TPP’s Latin American members.	这个问题的政治对于TPP的拉美成员国来说相当棘手。


All three have negotiated intellectual-property agreements with the US, achieving what seemed like mutually agreeable levels of protection.	三国都与美国进行过知识产权协议谈判，达成了互相同意的保护期。


Why should that change now?	现在为何要予以改变？


The conundrum is especially vexing for Chile, a country that already has bilateral trade agreements with every potential member of the TPP.	对智利来说，这一难题尤其棘手。 智利已经与所有TPP的潜在成员国达成了双边贸易协议。


If Chile is unlikely to gain substantial new market access, ask critics, why should Chile make trade concessions at all?	批评者指出，如果智利无法获得显著更多的市场准入，那么它为何要做出贸易让步？


That is going too far.	这太过分了。


Precisely because of the urgent need to diversify their exports, Chile, Peru, and other middle-income countries could benefit tremendously from agreements like the TPP.	正是因为出口多样化的紧迫需要，智利、秘鲁和其他中等收入国家才有可能从TPP这样的协议中获得巨大的好处。


But that potential will be realized only if more knowledge, not less, flows across member countries’ borders.	但只有在更多而非更少知识正在成员国之间实现跨境流动的情况下，这一点才能实现。


The US itself would benefit from having trade partners that can innovate, instead of serving only as passive buyers for American movies and songs.	美国本身也可以从拥有能够创新而不是只充当美国电影和歌曲的消极买家的贸易伙伴中获得好处。


The sooner US trade negotiators understand that, the better for everyone.	美国贸易谈判代表越早明白这一点，所有人都能获得越多的好处。


The Case for the TPP	TPP利弊辩


STANFORD – Following the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership by 12 Pacific Rim countries, debates about the costs and benefits of trade liberalization are intensifying.	斯坦福—12个环太平洋国家完成了跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（TPP）谈判，随之而来的是日益激烈的贸易自由化利弊之辩。


The early leaders in the United States’ presidential campaign, both the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton, have expressed opposition to the TPP, though as Secretary of State, Clinton called it the “the gold standard of trade deals.”	美国总统选战初期的领先者，不管是共和党的唐纳德·特朗普还是民主党的希拉里·克林顿，都表示反对TPP，尽管作为国务卿的克林顿称之为“贸易协议的金本位”。


The right level of trade openness is not a new debate.	贸易开放的合理程度不是一个新辩题。


Historically, trade systems have ranged from rather open to severely restricted by rules, tariffs, or non-tariff barriers, driven by shifts in the relative strength of liberalizing or protectionist economic and political forces.	从历史上看，贸易体系既有极其开放的，也有受规则、关税和非关税壁垒严格限制的，其变迁受自由派或保护主义经济和政治力量的相对优势驱动。


But even in closed systems, however severe the penalties they impose on trade, black markets usually develop, owing to the “gains from trade” generated by natural economic forces.	但即使在封闭系统中，不管针对贸易的惩罚多么严格，黑市总是能够发展起来，这是拜经济力量自发产生的“贸易收益”所赐。


The desire to trade arises whenever the domestic benefits of importing a good (whether a finished product or component) exceed the price paid – for example, if the imported good cannot be produced domestically, or only at a higher cost.	只要进口商品（不管是制成品还是零部件）给国内带来的收益超过所支付的价格，就会产生贸易的渴望——比如进口商品无法在国内生产，或生产成本更高的情形。


As the British economist David Ricardo demonstrated two centuries ago, it can even be better for a country to import goods that it can produce more cheaply, if doing so enables the production of other goods that are still cheaper to produce.	英国经济学家大卫·李嘉图两个世纪前就指出，即使是能够更廉价地生产产品的国家，进口产品也可能更好，如果进口能让其他产品的生产变得更廉价的话。


Additional gains from trade include increased variety and the economies of scale implied by producing for global markets.	贸易的其他好处包括品种的增加以及为全球市场生产所带来的规模经济。


Of course, there are potential downsides to trade.	当然，贸易也有潜在的弊端。


Alexander Hamilton, the first US treasury secretary, argued that allowing lower-cost imports would impede the development of domestic “infant” industry, which needed time to scale up enough to reduce costs to a competitive level.	美国第一任财政部长亚历山大·汉密尔顿认为，允许成本更低的进口品涌入会阻碍国内“婴儿”产业的发展，后者需要时间扩大规模从而将成本削减至有竞争力的水平。


In recent decades, the anti-trade argument has focused largely on “unfair” competition and economic dislocation.	在近几十年中，反贸易观点基本集中在“不公平”竞争和经济错置上。


But the reality is that, if two sides willingly trade, it can be assumed that both are better off; otherwise, one of them would refuse to trade.	但现实是，如果双方自愿贸易，那么可以认为双方都受益了，否则，其中一方将拒绝贸易。


So, while trade liberalization may entail some (smaller) losses for certain groups, these can – and should – be addressed through domestic relocation and assistance schemes, such as America’s Trade Adjustment Assistance program, and transition rules for affected industries, firms, and workers.	因此，尽管贸易自由化可能给某些集团带来一些（较小的）损失，但这些损失可以——也应该——通过国内再分配和援助机制（比如美国的贸易调整补助计划）和针对受影响行业、企业和工人的过渡规则解决。


Past experience reinforces the view that, ultimately, voluntary trade is a good thing.	过去的经验强化了一个观点：说到底，自由贸易是一件好事。


Extreme protectionism in the early 1930s, following an era of relatively free international trade, had devastating consequences, ultimately setting the stage for World War II.	20世纪30年代初，在经历了一段时间相对自由的国际贸易后，出现了极端保护主义，最终为第二次世界大战埋下了祸根。


As the MIT economist Charles Kindleberger showed, America’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff, in particular, helped to turn a deep recession into a global depression.	MIT经济学家查尔斯·金德尔伯格（Charles Kindleberger）指出，特别是美国的斯穆特-霍利关税（Smoot-Hawley Tariff）让深度衰退变成了全球萧条。


Even before the war was over, major powers convened in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to establish a new international trade and finance regime, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.	甚至在战争还未结束时，各大国便已齐聚新罕布什尔州布雷顿森林讨论建立新的国际贸易和金融制度，其中包括了关贸总协定。


Through a succession of lengthy and difficult global negotiations – the so-called “GATT rounds” – tariffs were steadily lowered for an increasing variety of goods.	通过一系列漫长而艰难的全球谈判——所谓的“关贸总协定诸回合”——越来越多的商品关税被稳步削减。


As a result, global trade grew faster than world GDP for most of the post-war period.	结果，全球贸易在战后大部分时间里以比全球GDP更快的速度增长。


Virtually all economists agree that this shift toward freer trade greatly benefited the world’s citizens and enhanced global growth.	几乎所有经济学家都同意，这一朝向更自由贸易的变迁让全世界公民大大受益，也强化了全球增长。


The economists Jeffrey Frankel and David Romer estimate that, in general, trade has a sizeable positive effect on growth.	经济学家杰弗里·弗兰克尔（Jeffrey Frankel）和大卫·罗默（David Romer）估算，总体而言，贸易对对增长起到了相当大的积极作用。


At a time when growth is failing to meet expectations almost everywhere, the TPP thus seems like a good move.	如今，几乎世界所有地区的增长都无法达到预期，因此TPP似乎是值得欢迎的措施。


To be sure, because tariffs in the TPP member countries are already low (with some exceptions, such as Canada’s tariffs on dairy products and Japan’s on beef), the net benefit of eliminating them would be modest (except for a few items that are very sensitive to small price changes).	诚然，TPP成员国的关税水平已经相当低（但也有一些例外，如加拿大的乳制品关税和日本的牛肉关税），取消关税的净收益将十分有限（除了少数对微小价格变动也十分敏感的商品）。


But the TPP is also expected to reduce non-tariff barriers (such as red tape and protection of state enterprises); harmonize policies and procedures; and include dispute-settlement mechanisms.	但TPP还能减少非关税壁垒（如官样文章和对国企的保护）、协调政策和程序，并包括了纠纷解决机制。


Though the TPP’s precise provisions have not been made public, political leaders in the member countries predict that the deal, once ratified and implemented, will add hundreds of billions of dollars to their economies and bolster employment.	尽管TPP的具体条款还没有公之于众，但成员国的政治领导人预测，该协议一旦被批准和实施，将给各国经济带来数千亿美元的提振并增加就业。


Smaller and developing economies will probably gain the most, relative to size, but everyone will benefit overall.	规模较小的发展中经济体或将收益最多（相对规模而言），但总体而言所有成员国都将受益。


Other important outcomes are not included in these calculations.	除此之外还有其他重要结果。


The alternative to liberalizing trade is not the status quo; it is a consistent move away from openness.	贸易自由化的替代方案不是保持现状； 而是持续地减小开放。


This can occur in a number of ways, such as the erection of non-tariff barriers that favor domestic incumbents at the expense of lower-priced potential imports that would benefit consumers.	这可以以多种方式进行，如建立有利于国内已有机构的非关税壁垒，代价则是不再有惠及消费者的潜在低价进口商品。


Moreover, it is much easier to build mutually beneficial trade relationships than it is to resolve military and geopolitical issues, such as combating the Islamic State or resolving tensions in the South China Sea.	此外，建立互惠的贸易关系比解决军事和地缘政治问题（如打击伊斯兰国或解决南海争端）容易得多。


But strong trade relationships have the potential to encourage cooperation – or, at least, discourage escalation of conflict – in other, more contentious areas.	但强大的贸易关系还可以鼓励其他争议较大的领域的合作——或至少阻止冲突升级。


Still, there are some legitimate concerns about the TPP.	但是，有一些关于TPP的担忧不无道理。


Some worry that it could divert trade from non-member countries or undermine the moribund Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations (though 20 years ago, the North American Free Trade Agreement had the opposite effect, kick-starting the Uruguay round).	一些人担心TPP将把让贸易离开非成员国，或破坏垂死挣扎的多边贸易谈判多哈回合（尽管在20年前，北美自由贸易协定起到了相反的效果，促成了乌拉圭回合的开始）。


Given all of this – not to mention renewed attention to national borders, owing to contentious immigration issues, such as the influx of Middle Eastern refugees in Europe – the TPP’s ratification is far from certain, especially in the US.	考虑到所有这些因素——更不用说因为争议很大的移民问题（如东欧难民涌入欧洲）而再度受关注的国界问题——TPP是否能获得批准还远未可知，特别是在美国。


The concentrated interests that oppose the agreement may turn out to be more influential than the diffuse interests of all consumers.	反对该协定的集中利益可能比所有消费者的分散利益更有影响力。


That would be a major loss.	这将是巨大的损失。


Allowing existing protectionist trade barriers to remain in place – or worsen – would not only deprive citizens in TPP countries of higher incomes; it would also deal a damaging blow to international cooperation.	放任现有保护主义贸易壁垒继续存在——甚至加剧——不但将剥夺TPP国家公民获得更高收入的机会； 还将给国际合作带来沉重打击。


Robots and Refugees	机器人和难民


DAVOS – The theme of this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos was the Fourth Industrial Revolution.	达沃斯——今年达沃斯世界经济论坛（WEF）会议的主题是第四次工业革命。


The subtitle should have been: Of Robots and Refugees.	副标题应该是：机器人和难民。


Although many of the panels focused on the technological marvels of the near future, others highlighted the world's inability to address one of humanity’s oldest problems: how to feed, house, and succor large populations driven by conflict from their homes and countries.	尽管不少小组关注不远将来的技术奇迹，但也有人集中关注世界一直无法解决的最古老的人类问题：如何为因冲突而背井离乡的大批民众提供粮食、住所和援助。


The First Industrial Revolution occurred with the invention of the steam engine and mechanical production; the second was defined by electrification and mass production; and the third was the digital revolution, which began in the 1960s with the invention of computers, semiconductors, and the Internet.	第二次是规模生产和电气化； 第三次则是20世纪60年代伴随电脑、半导体和因特网的发明而诞生的数字革命。


According to WEF Chairman Klaus Schwab, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is beginning now, “characterized by a much more ubiquitous and mobile Internet, by smaller and more powerful sensors that have become cheaper, and by artificial intelligence and machine learning.”	世界经济论坛主席施瓦布认为，现在正在启动第四次工业革命，“其标志是互联网更加普及和机动； 价格低廉的传感器更加小巧和高效；


It is ushering in a world in which virtual and physical systems are intertwined in manufacturing, services, and the human body itself.	还有人工智能和机器学习。 ”一个虚拟和物理系统在制造业、服务业及人体本身交织的崭新世界正在成形。


The WEF’s programs featured panels on robotics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and space travel.	世界经济论坛计划重点探讨机器人技术、生物技术、纳米技术和太空旅行。


The Victoria and Albert Museum in London created an interactive exhibit called “This Time Tomorrow.”	伦敦的维多利亚和阿尔伯特博物馆首创了一项互动展览，并以“明天的此刻”来为之冠名。 它展示了未来可能的六种情景，包括仅凭DNA单链创造出栩栩如生的人类脸部；


It featured six scenarios of possible futures, including a world in which full three-dimensional casts of human faces can be created from a single strand of DNA; buildings are covered with a skin capable of photosynthesis, taking in carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen; and death can be beaten by bringing back those who choose to be cryogenically preserved.	用能进行光合作用的皮肤覆盖建筑物，释放氧气并吸收二氧化碳； 以及通过复活那些选择将遗体冷冻保存的人来击败死神。


Other exhibits, however, focused on urgent current problems.	而其他展品也主要关注当前的紧迫问题。


It was possible to experience being a refugee through a virtual reality headset, – or through the actual experience of donning a headscarf and spending 75 minutes being treated like a refugee and facing heart-wrenching choices in a simulation created by the Crossroads Foundation.	人们可以借助虚拟现实耳机体验难民经历——或戴上头巾体验75分钟充当难民的感觉，在十字路口基金会创建的模拟环境中被迫面对令人痛心的选择。


Many of the real refugees are living in a world that is barely through the Second Industrial Revolution.	很多真正难民所生活的世界往往还没有完成第二次工业革命。


They cram into leaky rafts and place themselves at the mercy of the waves, and sleep on the floors of railroad stations.	他们挤进漏水的木筏，把生命交给汹涌的海水，并在火车站地上就寝。


Yet the majority of the million refugees flooding into Europe this past summer – primarily from Syria – had access to that “ubiquitous and mobile Internet” that is part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.	但去年夏天涌入欧洲百万难民的绝大部分——其中主要来自叙利亚——却熟练掌握标志第四次工业革命的“无所不在的移动网络”的使用方式。


Many received real-time guidance via social media that they accessed on their smartphones.	其中不少人通过手机上网社交媒体来获得实时指引。


Michel Bauwens, founder of the Peer-to-Peer Foundation, describes 2015 as the year in which millions of refugees “were organized by social media (specifically through secret Facebook groups) and in which scores of citizens organized themselves through peer-to-peer networks to assist them.”	对等网络基金会创始人米歇尔·博旺形容2015年是数百万难民“通过（秘密的Facebook团体）等社交媒体进行自发组织，同时也有许多民众自发通过点对点网络来协助他们。


These “Facebook refugees,” as the press quickly dubbed them, used the platform not only to coordinate with smugglers, but also to help one another.	”这些媒体口中的“Facebook难民”不仅用Facebook平台与走私者建立联系，而且还用它来开展互助行为。


According to UNHCR official Alessandra Morelli, the tens of thousands of Syrian refugees arriving on the Greek island of Lesbos “know exactly where they have to go, who they have to talk to.	联合国难民署官员亚历山德拉·莫雷利表示，成千上万抵达希腊莱斯沃斯岛的叙利亚难民“明确知道要往哪里去、要接触谁。


They know what to buy.”	他们知道要买什么。


Facebook posts showed them what kinds of tents to purchase, which routes to take, and what tactics to implement, such as slashing the rubber boats they arrived in to avoid being pushed back out to sea by Greek officials.	”Facebook发帖告诉他们要买什么样的帐篷、该走哪条路线、以及该用什么样的战术，比方说在抵达后割破所乘坐的橡皮艇以避免被希腊官员重新推回到海里。


The question remains, however, whether robots or gene sequencing or micro-sensors can help refugees integrate into European societies that are increasingly hostile to them, or else help them get back home.	但问题依然是机器人或基因测序或微传感技术能否帮助难民融入日益敌对的欧洲社会，或者帮他们返回家中。


It is easy enough to imagine tagging and tracking them in various ways.	不难想象用各种方式来对他们进行标记和跟踪。


After all, the Unique Identification Authority of India has enrolled nearly a billion Indians in its biometric identification program, which relies on scanning the irises of participants’ eyes.	毕竟，印度唯一身份识别管理局已经依靠人眼虹膜扫描技术生物识别并记录了近10亿印度人。


Combine iris identification with new phones (already issued by Microsoft) that use it to authenticate their users, and any refugee using his or her smartphone to connect to social media to find out where to go would also be signaling his or her location to border authorities.	有了虹膜识别技术与（微软已经发布的）利用这种技术实现用户认证的新型手机、任何使用智能手机联网社交媒体以了解下一步去向的难民同时也会将自己的位置告知边境管理局。


As the EU struggles to strengthen its border security in order to preserve citizens’ freedom of movement across internal frontiers, tracking and finding refugees and economic migrants before they reach European soil will become a priority.	在欧盟力求强化边境安全以保护民众跨境自由流动的同时，在未抵达欧洲领土前跟踪并发现难民将成为最优先的问题。


Yet, aside from the civil-liberties problems with this kind of tracking, no technology can successfully address the underlying problem: the conflicts from which millions of people are seeking refuge.	但除去此类跟踪所涉及的公民自由问题外，任何一种技术都无法成功解决最根本的问题：那就是导致成百上千万人寻求避难的这场冲突。


Historically, we have been far more ingenious at developing new technologies to kill people than we have been at protecting them.	从历史上看，我们所研制新技术的杀人能力远非其保护能力可以企及。


Early in the Syrian civil war, when President Bashar al-Assad’s government was claiming that the many pictures of atrocities that opposition members posted to social media were fake, it would have been possible to develop a United Nations platform with verification procedures to ensure the authenticity of photos and videos posted.	叙利亚内战早期，当巴沙尔·阿萨德总统政府宣称反对派在社交媒体发布的很多照片均系伪造时，联合国本来可以建立验证平台，确保所公布照片和视频的真实性。


But no technology can overcome some governments’ lack of political will to hold other governments to account.	但任何技术都无法克服某些政府缺乏对其他政府追责的政治意愿问题。


Likewise, no technology can compel combatants to negotiate a peace.	同样，任何技术都无法迫使参战者谈判和平。


Even the atomic bomb, which did force Japan to surrender and ended World War II, depended on Harry Truman’s will to use it.	即便是成功迫使日本投降并结束第二次世界大战的原子弹也有赖于哈里·杜鲁门使用它的意志。


P.W. Singer and August Cole’s novel Ghost Fleet, set in a future war between the United States and China, is remarkable in that the authors describe all of the astonishing technologies that both sides use on the basis of publicly available information from actual US and Chinese military sources (micro-drones, robots, and holograms abound).	辛格和科尔的小说《幽灵舰队》以美中两国的未来战争为背景，这部小说的非同寻常之处在于作者以收集自美中两国军队来源的实际公开信息为基础，推演出双方将会使用的令人震惊的技术（包括微型无人机、机器人和全息照相技术）。


But the outcome of the war is still determined by human will, courage, and determination, which are the same attributes needed to stop human suffering in any age.	但战争的结果仍将取决于人类意志、勇气和决心，我们同样需要这些特质来结束任何年龄段的人类苦难。


Tradable Prosperity	可贸易繁荣


MILAN – The global economy is experiencing a major growth challenge.	米兰—全球经济正在经历增长大挑战。


Many advanced countries are attempting to revive sustainable growth in the face of a decelerating global economy.	许多发达国家试图在全球经济减速的环境下重振可持续发展。


But the challenges across countries are not the same.	但各国所面临的挑战各不相同。


In particular, the tradable and non-tradable parts of a range of economies differ in important ways.	特别是，各国可贸易和不可贸易部门存在重要不同。


In the non-tradable sector (60-70% of the economy in advanced countries), the main growth inhibitors are weak demand, as in the United States following the financial crisis, and structural and competitive impediments to productivity, as in Japan.	在不可贸易部门（占发达国家经济的60—70%），主要增长拖累因素是疲软的需求（比如金融危机后的美国）以及因结构性和竞争阻碍了生产率发展（如日本）。


In the tradable sector, growth depends on a country’s productivity relative to incomes and competitiveness.	在可贸易部门，增长取决于一国相对于收入和竞争力的生产率。


At the global level, there can also be a shortage of aggregate demand on the tradable side.	在全球层面，可贸易部门也存在总需求不足的问题。


The Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow has shown that growth comes from three sources: the working population, capital investment, and technological progress.	诺贝尔经济学奖罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）指出，增长有三个来源：工作人口、资本投资和技术进步。


A growing young population helps to maintain fiscal balance and ensure intergenerational equity, but it does not by itself increase incomes.	年轻人口的增加有助于维持财政平衡和保证代际平等，但其本身并不能增加收入。


On the other hand, economic growth below the sum of growth in the working population and the labor-saving part of technological change fuels unemployment.	另一方面，经济增长低于工作人口增加总量以及技术变迁中的劳动力节约因素会增加失业。


Developing countries, once they enter rapid-growth mode, generate growth from capital deepening via investment, in a sense making up for past underinvestment.	发展中国家一旦进入快速增长模式就会从通过投资实现的资本深化中获得增长，这是由过去的投资不足决定的。


And it is possible for advanced countries to fall behind by under-investing, particularly in the public sector, relying instead on less sustainable debt-fueled means of generating demand.	发达国家则可能因投资不足（特别是公共部门方面的投资）而落后，转而依赖可持续性较差的债务驱动型需求创造方法。


So a legitimate part of a strategy to restore growth is investment.	因此，重塑增长战略中最合理的部分是投资。


But, as Solow noted, investment has its limits, owing to diminishing marginal returns.	但是，正如索洛所指出的，投资有一个极限，这是边际回报递减规律决定的。


Often, these limits are not binding, but, once capital deepening is exhausted, technological progress, which makes inputs more productive in creating final value, is the long-run driver of growth.	通常，投资极限并不是一成不变的，但如果资本深化潜力挖尽，那么技术进步——提高投入品在创造最终价值中的生产率——便成为长期增长动力。


The challenge is to apply these insights in a world characterized by global economic interdependence, major imbalances, and a worsening growth and employment problem.	挑战在于将这些洞见应用于当今全球经济相互依赖型越来越强、失衡越来越严重、增长和就业问题越来越恶化的世界中。


It is a world in which economies are connected directly in the tradable sector of the global economy, and indirectly through the demand and employment linkages between the tradable and non-tradable sectors of individual economies.	如今，世界各国通过全球经济可贸易部门直接相连，通过各国可贸易和不可贸易部门之间的需求和就业联系间接相连。


In the short run, the non-tradable sector is, by definition, subject to domestic-demand constraints.	在短期，顾名思义，不可贸易部门受着国内需求的约束。


A shortfall in non-tradable demand inevitably limits growth on that side of the economy.	不可贸易需求的短缺不可避免地成为经济中这方面的极限。


Government can, of course, bridge the gap via deficit spending (preferably focused on employment-generating investment that enhances future growth).	当然，政府可以通过赤字支出（优先考虑提振未来增长的就业创造投资）填补空白。


But the advanced countries are, to varying degrees, fiscally constrained by relatively high and rising public debt, largely owing to fiscal imbalances that were hidden from view until defective growth models broke down in the crisis of 2008.	但发达国家不同程度地因高且不断增长的公债水平（主要肇因是增长模式有缺陷，它们掩盖了财政失衡问题，直到2008年危机爆发才被发现）受着财政约束。


Just how fiscally constrained these countries are remains subject to debate.	各国财政约束严重到什么程度还有待讨论。


Italy and Spain are clearly constrained by the absence of private capital in their respective sovereign-debt markets, with rising yields threatening their fiscal stability and reform programs.	意大利和西班牙的约束显然是来自各自主权债务市场中缺少私人资本，收益率的不断上涨威胁着其财政稳定性和改革计划。


They need the eurozone core and the International Monetary Fund as temporary lenders of last resort until they restore policy credibility and regain investors’ confidence.	它们需要欧元区核心国和IMF充当暂时最后贷款人，直到它们重新建立政策信誉，赢回投资者信心。


The US sovereign-debt market shows no similar evidence of having reached a limit yet.	美国主权债务市场则并未出现触及极限的迹象。


But bond markets do not issue many early warning signals: witness the sudden run-up of yields in Italy and Spain a year ago.	但债券市场并不会给出多少早期警示信号：一年前意大利和西班牙债券收益率飙升就是明证。


The more complex growth issues have to do with the tradable part of the global economy, where global aggregate demand – and the derived demand that lands in various places in global supply or value-added chains – is the target of competition.	增长问题的复杂化与全球经济可贸易部分有关，其中的全球总需求——以及由此产生的全球供应链和价值增加链中的派生需求——成为了竞争目标。


Total demand and its growth do matter, but so does market share.	总需求及其增长确实重要，但全球份额同样重要。


Given the growth patterns across advanced and developing countries prior to the crisis, and then the large negative shock, it is likely that there is a shortfall of tradable global aggregate demand, impeding an important component of global growth.	从危机前发达和发展中国家的增长模式以及随后所产生的负面效应巨大的冲击看，可能存在可贸易全球总需求短缺，从而妨碍了全球增长中的一大重要组成部分。


But, for individual economies, relative productivity versus income levels determines the share of global tradable aggregate demand that is accessible.	但是，对于具体国家而言，生产率与收入水平的相对比较决定了其在可实现全球可贸易总需求中所占的份额。


Unlike the non-tradable side of the economy, the domestic component of global tradable demand is not an absolute constraint on growth; nor is the rate of growth of global tradable demand an absolute constraint, given the possibility of increasing share.	与经济中的不可贸易部门不同，全球可贸易需求中的内需部分并不是增长的绝对约束； 全球可贸易需求增长率亦然，这是因为存在扩大份额的可能。


Of course, not everyone can gain share at the same time.	当然，不可能所有人都同时获得份额的提升。


Fortunately, if countries increase productivity with the aim of boosting relative productivity and growth potential on the tradable side, this will increase incomes and accelerate the growth of global aggregate demand.	幸运的是，如果各国以提振可贸易部门的相对生产率和增长潜力为目标提高生产率，则收入也会得到提高，全球总需求增长则能够加速。


It may look like a zero-sum game, but it is not.	看起来，这像是零和博弈，但并非如此。


When incomes get significantly out of line with productivity levels (as they have recently), reviving growth requires resetting the terms of trade, which can be done with exchange rates, whether managed or set by markets.	当收入与生产率水平相去甚远时（目前就是如此），提振增长就需要改变贸易条件，改变贸易条件可以通过汇率（不管是汇率管制还是由市场决定）实现。


In the eurozone, where countries with competitiveness problems do not have the exchange-rate adjustment mechanism, restrained income growth and productivity-boosting reforms are probably needed, as was the case in Germany between 2000 and 2006, and now in several southern European countries.	在欧元区，存在竞争力问题的成员国没有汇率调整机制可用，因此可能必须实行抑制收入增长和提振生产率的改革，德国在2000—2006年间曾经这么做过，现在轮到某些南欧国家这么做了。


What is true for countries on the tradable side is also true for workers, who are differentially affected by the evolution of global supply chains.	对可贸易部门适用的真理对各国工人同样适用，不同国家的工人受到的全球供应链演化的影响各不相同。


The efficient integration of global supply chains has created employment opportunities in developing countries and in the higher value-added sectors of advanced countries.	全球供应链的高效一体化为发展中国家和发达国家的高附加值部门创造了就业机会。


But it has also reduced employment options for a subset of middle-income people in the tradable sectors of advanced economies.	但也减少了发达国家可贸易部门的下等中产阶级的就业选择。


Many countries are struggling to adapt their growth patterns to the new challenges they face in a slowing global economy.	许多国家都在尽力调整增长模式以适应它们所面临的全球经济减速新挑战。


To be effective and properly targeted, policies need to include an accurate diagnosis of growth potential and impediments in both the tradable and non-tradable parts of the economy.	为了有效、合理地定向，各国所采取的政策需要对增长潜力进行精准判断，并在可贸易和不可贸易部分双管齐下。


Focusing on one (say, the competitiveness problem in the tradable sector) to the exclusion of the other (perhaps a serious non-tradable demand shortfall or stagnant absolute productivity) will not be enough.	专注一其中一个部分（比如可贸易部门的竞争力问题）而排除另一个（也许是严重的不可贸易需求短缺或绝对生产率停滞不前）是不够的。


Can Trade Agreements Stop Currency Manipulation?	贸易协定能够阻止货币操纵吗？


WASHINGTON, DC – It is impossible to deny that trade and exchange rates are closely linked.	华盛顿—不可否认，贸易和汇率是紧密相关的。


But does that mean that international trade agreements should include provisions governing national policies that affect currency values?	但这是否意味着国际贸易协定应该包括约束影响货币价值的国家政策的条款？


Some economists certainly think so.	一些经济学家显然认为是的。


Simon Johnson, for example, recently argued that mega-regional agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership should be used to discourage countries from intervening in the currency market to prevent exchange-rate appreciation; Fred Bergsten has made a similar argument.	比如，西蒙·约翰逊（Simon Johnson）最近指出，应该用跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership）等大型地区协定来鼓励各国不要干预货币市场阻止汇率升值；


But the United States Treasury and the Office of the US Trade Representative continue to argue that macroeconomic issues should be kept separate from trade negotiations.	弗雷德·伯格斯滕（Fred Bergsten）也持有类似观点。 但美国财政部和美国贸易代表办公室仍认为，宏观经济问题应该与贸易谈判分开。


As it stands, the relevant international institutions – the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund – are not organized to respond effectively to possible currency manipulation on their own.	目前，最重要的国际机构——世贸组织和国际货币基金组织（IMF）——都无法通过自身有效应对可能的货币操纵。


Incorporating macroeconomic policies affecting exchange rates into trade negotiations would require either that the WTO acquire the technical capacity (and mandate) to analyze and adjudicate relevant national policies or that the IMF join the dispute-settlement mechanisms that accompany trade treaties.	将影响汇率的宏观经济政策纳入贸易谈判要么要求世贸组织拥有分析和裁定相关国家政策的技术能力（和权力），要么要求IMF加入贸易条约相关的纠纷解决机制。


To be sure, since 2007, the IMF has prohibited “large-scale intervention in one direction in the exchange market,” in a decision on “bilateral surveillance” that also identifies “large and prolonged” current-account imbalances as a reason for review.	平心而论，2007年以来，IMF在关于“双边监督”的决定中禁止“在外汇市场上进行大规模单方向干预”，该决定还规定“大规模、长时间”的经常项目失衡需要接受检查。


But neither that decision nor later IMF policy papers on multilateral surveillance provide specific and comparative quantitative indicators that would eliminate the need for case-by-case judgment.	但这一决定和此后IMF 关于多边监督的政策论文都没有提供具体且可比的量化指标以免除具体案例具体判断的必要。


The situation is complicated by the multitude of mechanisms whereby treasuries and central banks can drive down their exchange rates to gain a competitive trade advantage.	各国财政部和央行可以通过各种机制抑制利率从而获得比较贸易优势，这让情况变得更加复杂了。


The most direct method is purchases of foreign assets.	最直接的办法是购买外国资产。


But, in a world of large short-term capital flows, central-banks’ policy interest rates – or even just announcements about likely future rates – also have a major impact.	但是，在短期资本流量巨大的世界中，央行的政策利率——甚至只是关于未来可能利率的声明——也能产生巨大影响。


Moreover, quantitative easing affects exchange rates and trade, even if central banks purchase only domestic assets, as demonstrated by recent movements in the exchange rates of the dollar, the euro, and the yen.	此外，量化宽松影响着汇率和贸易，即使央行只购买国内资产时也是如此，最近的美元、欧元和日元汇率走势就是明证。


One could go even further.	还可以跟进一步。


An income-tax hike will reduce private demand (unless one believes in perfect Ricardian equivalence), including demand for other countries’ exports.	所得税提高会降低私人需求（除非你相信完美李嘉图等价），包括对其他国家出口的需求。


Other macroeconomic policies of all kinds influence the current-account balance.	其他各种宏观经济政策也都可以影响经常项目余额。


In short, for “policies affecting the exchange rate” to become part of trade agreements, monetary and fiscal policies would have to become part of trade agreements.	简言之，要在贸易协定中纳入“影响汇率的政策”方面的内容的问题，那么货币和财政政策都会变成贸易协定的一部分。


In that case, there would be no trade agreements at all.	这样一来，贸易协定根本无从谈起。


Consider the problem that would be posed by the eurozone – an economy that faces major challenges in reconciling its members’ divergent monetary, fiscal, and exchange-rate needs.	以欧元区可能造成的问题为例。 欧元区经济面临着协调成员国各不相同的货币、财政和汇率需要的艰巨挑战。


Germany’s current-account surplus has stood near 7% of GDP – bigger than China’s – for two years, and is likely to grow even larger, owing to the euro’s recent depreciation.	两年来，德国经常项目盈余相当于GDP的近7%——比中国还要大，并且有可能继续增加，因为欧元最近在贬值。


Meanwhile, most other eurozone countries have lately been forced to tighten fiscal policy, thereby reducing or eliminating their current-account deficits.	与此同时，其他大部分欧元区国家最近被迫收紧财政政策，因而减少或消灭了经常项目赤字。


As a result, the total eurozone trade surplus is now massive.	结果是欧元区总贸易盈余非常庞大。


Because individual eurozone members have no monetary-policy tools at their disposal, the only way that Germany can reduce its surplus while remaining in the eurozone is to conduct expansionary fiscal policy.	由于个体欧元区成员国没有可随意使用的货币政策工具，因此德国想不退出欧元区又削减其盈余的唯一办法是实施扩张性财政政策。


The economist Stefan Kawalec has explicitly referred to the current policy mix in the eurozone as “currency manipulation.”	经济学家斯特凡·卡瓦莱克（Stefan Kawalec）将当前欧元区政策组合直接称为“货币操纵”。


Trade negotiations are hard enough to conclude.	贸易谈���很难谈成。


The need to wrestle with macroeconomic-policy issues could easily cause talks to bog down – and give protectionist lobbies the political ammunition they need.	与宏观政策问题角力的需要可以轻易地导致谈崩——并给保护主义游说集团以需要的政治口实。


That is why the Trade Representative is wisely trying not to add macroeconomic policy into the bargaining, despite demands from powerful voices in the US Congress.	因此，美国贸易代表正在明智地试图不把宏观经济政策加入到讨价还价内容中，尽管美国国会的权势人物提出了这方面的要求。


None of this means that macroeconomic policies that affect exchange rates are not problematic.	所有这些并不意味着影响汇率的宏观经济政策没有问题。


They are.	它们有问题。


But trade negotiations are not the right forum for discussing the causes and consequences of current-account imbalances and reaching agreements on macroeconomic-policy coordination; that is what the IMF and the G-20 are for.	但贸易谈判不是讨论经常项目失衡的原因和结果、达成关于宏观经济政策协调的一致的正确场合； IMF和G-20才是。


In fact, the issue of large actual or potential discrepancies between aggregate savings and investment in countries or monetary zones, reflected in current-account imbalances, is at the heart of the IMF’s emerging multilateral surveillance role; it has been a focus of the G-20 as well.	事实上，国家和货币区总需求和投资之间实际或潜在的不一致问题——反映在经常项目失衡中——正是IMF新的多边监督角色的核心内容，也是G-20的关注重点。


The G-20 “mutual assessment process” – established to analyze national economic policies’ effects on other countries and on global growth, with the goal of formulating individual adjustment commitments – has highlighted the difficulty of reaching agreement on macroeconomic policies with significant spillover effects.	G-20的“共同评估过程”——分析国家经济政策对其他国家和全球增长的影响，目标是形成个体国家的调整承诺——凸显出在存在巨大溢出效应的宏观经济政策上取得一致的困难。


Indeed, it is even more difficult than reaching trade agreements, which must cover issues like tariffs, quotas, quality standards, regulatory regimes for particular sectors, and relevant microeconomic issues.	事实上，这甚至比达成必须涵盖关税、配额、质量标准、特定行业的监管制度以及相关微观经济问题等问题的贸易协定更加困难。


Merging all of these challenging topics into a single negotiation process is a recipe for deadlock.	将所有这些挑战集中到一个谈判过程中只能导致僵局。


A better approach would include strengthening the IMF’s multilateral surveillance role.	更好的方针应包括强化IMF的多边监督角色。


Doing so would broaden discussions of macroeconomic policy to include employment issues – specifically, the potential impact of large foreign-trade surpluses on domestic jobs.	这样做可以拓宽宏观经济政策的讨论，将就业问题包括进来——具体而言，就是巨额对外贸易盈余对国内就业的潜在影响。


And it would give trade negotiations a chance to succeed.	而这将让贸易谈判有机会获得成功。


Trade More than Aid	贸易应多于援助


The recent G-8 meeting in Scotland, as well as concerts and celebrity activism, has put a spotlight on the amount of international assistance reaching the countries and peoples of Africa.	最近在苏格兰举行的八国峰会，以及除此之外的音乐会和名人活动，将人们的关注焦点放在了非洲各国和人民所受到的国际资助的数量上。


This is understandable in light of the continent’s persistent poverty, seemingly endless conflicts, and the prevalence of HIV-AIDS and other infectious diseases.	考虑到非洲长期贫困、表面看来永无止境的冲突以及艾滋病和其他传染疾病的盛行，这是可以理解的。


If properly targeted and conditioned on reforms, international aid can make a positive difference.	如果国际援助的目标正确、条件适当，它就能产生积极的、与众不同的效果。


But aid is no panacea.	但是援助并非万能药。


The fact that so many problems persist despite tens of billions of dollars of assistance and years of effort is a sad reminder that aid can allow governments to undertake foolish investments that accomplish little, or can easily be siphoned off by corrupt officials.	虽然我们给出了价值成百上千亿美元的援助，并且多年来不断做出努力，但是诸多问题依然存在的事实却让我们悲哀地意识到，援助能够允许政府进行愚蠢的、毫无收益的投资，或者被贪污官员轻而易举地霸占。


Moreover, aid is inherently uncertain, leaving Africans at the mercy of outside forces beyond their control.	此外，援助本身的不确定性使得非洲人民在他们无法控制的外部力量下任人摆布。


Another problem with the emphasis on aid (in addition to the near impossibility of accurately measuring the scale of the flows from all sources) is that the political effort to increase it absorbs attention that would be better spent on a more powerful instrument of economic development: trade.	另外一个对援助问题的关注焦点 （除了精确计算来自各渠道的资金规模的不可能性之外）在于，为增加援助的政治努力吸引了一部分注意力，而它们本该用于一个能使经济发展的更为有力的手段——贸易。


Trade is the all-but-forgotten weapon in the battle against poverty, but it can provide more help to the poor than aid can.	贸易是在这场抗贫困战争中几乎已经被忘却的武器，但是它却比援助更能帮助贫困人口。


If rich countries – in particular, the United States, the 25 members of the EU, and Japan – really want to help poor people, they will open their markets to what poor countries produce, especially textiles, apparel, agricultural products, and commodities.	如果富有国家——特别是美国、欧盟的25个成员国和日本——真心诚意地想要帮助贫困人口，他们应该向贫困国家的产品开放他们的市场，尤其是纺织品、服装、农产品和日用品。


Phasing out tariffs and import quotas for poor countries’ exports – and phasing out subsidies for their own producers of agricultural products – would have a dramatic effect on the lives of hundreds of millions of people in Africa and elsewhere.	逐步取消贫困国家出口产品的关税和进口配额——并逐步停止对他们自己的农产品的补贴——将对成千上百万生活在非洲和其他地方的人们的生活产生巨大影响。


Private businesses would develop, jobs would be created, and incomes would rise.	私人企业将会得以发展，工作岗位将得以产生，人们的收入将得以提高。


Moreover, trade benefits the world in many other ways, providing a major boost to the advanced economies of the world.	此外，贸易能大力推进世界先进经济体制，在许多其他方面都使全世界受益匪浅。


One recent study estimates that incomes in the US alone could rise by $500 billion a year if global trade were to become truly free.	最近一次的研究结果估计，如果全球贸易能真正实现自由的话，单单美国的收入就能在一年之内增加5,000亿美元。


Similarly, incomes around the world would rise significantly from liberalizing more global trade in both goods and services.	同样地，全世界的收入水平也会在解放更多的全球贸易货物和服务中得到显著增长。


Trade is also an engine of political and economic reform.	贸易也是政治和经济改革的发动机。


What countries must do to join the World Trade Organization is precisely what they must do to become productive and democratic: accept the rule of law, reduce corruption, and become open, accountable, and transparent.	各国为加入世贸组织所必须做的正是他们要成为生产性的民主国家所必须做的：接受法治，减少腐败，成为开放、负责且具有透明度的国家。


At the same time, increased trade can help create and sustain a middle class – precisely the social group that often stands at the forefront of movements for democratic reform.	同时，增长的贸易有助于建立并保持一个中产阶级——一个经常站在民主革命前沿的社会团体。


Trade has a strategic benefit as well, for it gives countries a stake in good relations with one another and in maintaining order and stability.	贸易同时也带来战略性的收益，因为它在各国之间保持良好关系并维持良好秩序及稳定性的情况下带来利益。


A China that trades extensively with the US and its Asian neighbors will think twice before it pursues any policy that would place those relationships at risk.	与美国及其亚洲邻国广泛进行贸易的中国在它决定采取任何可能危及那些关系的政策之前都会三思而行。


Likewise, trade between India and Pakistan could contribute to the normalization of ties between these long-estranged neighbors.	同样地，印度和巴基斯坦之间的贸易对正常化这两个长期疏远的邻国之间的关系功不可没。


But if the case for expanding world trade is compelling, the prospects for actually doing so are clouded, owing to a simple but nonetheless fundamental political reality: those who gain from trade, which is almost everyone, are not always aware of it. The benefits of freer trade, such as job creation, lower inflation, and greater consumer choice, are often invisible or only partly visible.	但若扩大世界贸易是迫不得已的，那么这样做的前景就十分暗淡，这是因为一个简单但却十分基本的政治事实：那些从贸易中获利的人，几乎是每个人，从来没有意识到这一点，即更为自由的贸易所带来的益处，诸如产生就业岗位、更低的通货膨胀率以及更宽广的消费者选择范围，经常不被他们看到，或者只看到了一部分。


By contrast, those who lose from trade, or who fear that they could lose, while relatively small in number, are anything but invisible.	相反，那些从贸易中受损的人们，或那些害怕他们会遭受损失的人们，尽管数量相对较小，却绝不可忽略。


They feel the threat acutely and act accordingly, often dominating their country’s political process.	他们强烈地感受到了威胁并因此采取行动，通常控制了他们国家的政治进程。


Highly motivated minorities can and do overwhelm the general interests of majorities who are not seized with an issue.	受个人利益激励的少数人能够并且确实压倒了大众利益，而大多数人却对这个问题毫无知觉。


What is needed, therefore, is a pledge by governments to make global trade liberalization a much higher political priority.	因此，现在所需要的，是政府做出承诺，将全球贸易自由化放在政治议程的首要位置。


This will happen only if all of the major trading countries demonstrate a commitment to play by the rules.	只有当所有贸易大国宣称将依据条例规定行事，这才有可能实现。


For China, this means respecting and enforcing intellectual property rights, allowing non-Chinese firms to compete on an equal basis, and setting its currency at a fair level rather than one that is artificially low.	对中国而言，这意味着尊重和实行知识产权，允许非中国企业在平等基础上参与竞争，并将人民币汇率设定在一个��平而非人为操作降低的水平。


For the US, the EU, and Japan, it means ending massive subsidies to farmers and curtailing other forms of protection provided to uncompetitive sectors.	对美国、欧盟和日本而言，这意味着结束对农民实行的巨额补贴并削减其他任何对无竞争力产业所提供的保护形式。


Governments can take these steps if they introduce and expand programs designed to assist those who would lose their jobs as a result of trade liberalization.	政府可以采取这些措施，如果它们引进并扩大那些用于帮助在贸易全球化中失去工作的人们的项目。


Displaced farmers and workers must be provided with the education and training required to enter new jobs, as well as the funds, health care, and other essential services that they need to tide them through the transition.	失去工作的农民和工人必须得到教育保障和获取新工作的技能培训，以及基金、医疗和其他一些他们在渡过转型期中所需的必要服务。


There is urgency in all of this.	所有这些都已经成为燃眉之急。


The current (Doha) round of global trade negotiations is behind schedule; the next session, to be held in Hong Kong, is only months away.	目前（多哈）一轮的全球贸易谈判已经跟不上形势，距离下一个在香港召开的会议仅有几周之遥了。


Where are the many people who benefit from trade, including the celebrities who care so deeply about alleviating poverty and promoting development?	那么多从贸易中获利的人们哪里去了，还有那些对减少贫困、促进发展表示深度关注的名人们呢？


Live Trade, anyone?	每个人不都是以贸易为生的吗？


The Chimera of Currency Manipulation	货币操纵的洪水猛兽


CAMBRIDGE – US President Barack Obama is still pressing to obtain Trade Promotion Authority and use it to conclude negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the European Union.	美国剑桥—美国总统奥巴马仍在争取获得贸易促进授权（Trade Promotion Authority）并使用这一授权完成跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（TPP）和与欧盟的跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系（TTIP）谈判。


But many in the US Congress insist that provisions must be added to the agreements to prevent currency manipulation.	但美国国会中有许多人坚持在两大协定中加入防止货币操纵的条款。


Let’s be clear: If the US were to insist that “strong and enforceable currency disciplines” be part of trade agreements, no deals would be concluded.	我们必须明确：如果美国坚持“强大且强制的货币纪律”必须作为贸易协定的一部分，那么就无法达成协议。


Other countries would refuse – and they would be right.	其他国家将拒绝——理应如此。


Linking efforts to prevent currency manipulation to trade agreements has always been a bad idea, and it still is.	将阻止货币操纵的措施与贸易协定联系起来向来是个坏主意，现在也是。


True, there are times when particular countries’ currencies can be judged to be undervalued or overvalued, and there are times when their trading partners have a legitimate interest in raising the issue.	诚然，有时个别国家的货币可认为是低估或高估的，有时它们的贸易伙伴提出这一问题符合其合法利益。


But even when currency misalignment is relatively clear, trade agreements are not the right way to address it.	但哪怕货币错配情况相对明显，贸易协定也不是解决这个问题的好方法。


More suitable venues for resolving exchange-rate issues include the International Monetary Fund, the G-20, the G-7, and bilateral negotiations.	更合适的汇率问题解决之道包括国际货币基金组织（IMF）、G-20、G-7和双边谈判。


For example the undervalued renminbi was successfully addressed in bilateral China-US discussions from 2004 to 2011.	比如，人民币低估 通过2004—2011年间的中美双边讨论成功地解决了。


China allowed the currency to appreciate 35% over time.	中国允许人民币逐渐升值了35%。


Today it is well within a normal range.	如今，人民币已经处于正常区间。


But the fact remains that it is mostly impossible to tell whether a currency is overvalued or undervalued.	但一个事实仍然存在：决定一种货币高估还是低估是很困难的。


Manipulation is not like the existence of a tariff or quota that can be verified by independent observers.	操纵不像关税或配额那样可以由独立观察者查实。


A necessary condition for concluding that a country is manipulating its currency is that its authorities are intervening in the foreign-exchange market.	认定一国正在操纵其货币的一个必要条件是该国当局干预外汇市场。


The People’s Bank of China, for example, bought a record quantity of dollars from 2004 to 2014, thereby preventing the renminbi’s exchange rate from appreciating as fast as it otherwise would have done.	比如，2004—2014年间，中国人民银行购入了创纪录数量的美元，阻止人民币汇率过快升值。


But the Chinese are not doing that anymore.	但中国的“操纵”仅限于此。


If anything, they have been selling dollars over the last year, keeping the renminbi’s value higher than it would otherwise be.	如果还要说有什么操纵的话，那么去年中国一直在出售美元，将人民币价值保持在高位。


Moreover, there are often legitimate reasons for intervening in foreign-exchange markets.	此外，干预外汇市场常常有合理理由。


For example, under the Plaza Accord, the US joined with Japan, Germany, and other G-7 countries in 1985 to intervene cooperatively to weaken the dollar.	比如，根据广场协议，1985年美国和日本、德国和其他G-7国家联手干预市场让美元贬值。


Indeed, a majority of countries pursue either fixed exchange rates, exchange-rate targets, or managed floating, all of which by definition entail buying and selling foreign exchange to moderate or eliminate exchange-rate fluctuations.	事实上，大部分国家要么追求固定汇率，要么追求汇率目标，要么采取管理浮动，顾名思义，这些做法都包含买卖外汇以缓和或消除汇率波动。


China is not a party to the TPP, but Japan is, and many congressional critics cite it as the target of their insistence that provisions to prevent currency manipulation be included in the deal.	中国不是TPP参与国，但日本是，许多国会批评者以日本为目标作为坚持将防止货币操纵条款纳入协议的理由。


The yen has depreciated sharply over the last year, and some US economic interests, particularly the auto industry, accuse Japan of manipulation to keep the currency undervalued.	去年，日元大幅贬值，一些美国经济利益集团，特别是汽车业，指责日本操纵货币保持日元低估。


But the last time the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market was in 2011.	但日本银行上一次干预外汇市场要追溯到2011年。


In 2013, Japan joined other G-7 countries in agreeing to a proposal by the US Treasury to refrain from foreign-exchange intervention.	2013N年，日本与其他G-7国家一起同意了美国财政部提出的不干预晚会的动议。


The euro, too, has depreciated significantly against the dollar over the last year, and some US trade critics want provisions to prevent currency manipulation added to the TTIP.	去年欧元也大幅对美元贬值，一些美国贸易批评家希望将防止货币操纵条款纳入TTIP。


But the European Central Bank has not intervened in the foreign-exchange market since 2000 – and that was to support the euro, not weaken it.	但欧洲央行从2000年以来从未干预过外汇市场——而此前的干预也是为了支撑欧元而非让欧元贬值。


Critics who accuse Japan and other countries of currency manipulation presumably know that they have not been intervening in the foreign-exchange market in recent years.	指责日本和其他国家操纵货币的批评家想必都知道，它们在近几年中根本没有干预挽回市场。


They generally point instead to recent monetary loosening.	因此他们集体转向了最近的货币宽松。


The predictable side effect of quantitative easing (QE) – that is, the purchase of domestic bonds – by the BOJ and the ECB has been the depreciation of the yen and the euro.	可预料的日本银行和欧洲央行量化宽松——即购买本国债券——的副作用正是日元和欧元贬值。


But central banks can hardly be enjoined from easing monetary policy when domestic economic conditions warrant it, as has obviously been the case in Japan and Europe (and in the US when the Federal Reserve embraced QE).	但面对国内经济环境的需要，央行很难不放松货币政策，日本和欧洲的情况显然正是如此（美国在美联储采取量化宽松时也是如此）。


If monetary expansion does not merit the charge of currency manipulation, still less do other sorts of economic policies.	如果货币扩张不能称为货币操纵，那么其他经济政策就更加如此了。


Some have argued that even though the PBOC has stopped buying US and other foreign assets, China’s sovereign wealth funds still do, and that this, too, counts as manipulation.	有人说，即使中国人民银行停止购买美国和其他外国资产，中国的主权财富基金也会这样做，而这样也算操纵。


But it is perfectly sensible and legitimate for China to put some of its savings abroad.	但中国将一部分储蓄用作海外投资绝对是明智又合法的。


(The US would become worried if China and other countries did not want to buy its assets.)	（如果中国和其他国家不愿意购买美国资产，美国又要担心了。


Every country makes policy decisions of many sorts every week, many of which can be expected to have an indirect effect on the exchange rate in one direction or the other.	）每个国家每个星期都要做出各种各样的政策决定，其中许多决定必然会对汇率造成某个方向上的间接影响。


The mere fact that a particular policy might weaken the currency does not make that country a manipulator.	某项政策可能导致货币贬值，光凭这一事实绝对无法判定某国是货币操纵国。


Finally, provisions that target other central banks could also be applied against the US.	最后，针对其他央行的条款也可以用到美国头上。


This would not be a case of misusing a tool (a frequent occurrence in trade policy when interest groups lobby for protection against foreign competition); rather, it would be a case of using the tool in precisely the intended way.	这不是滥用某个工具（当利益集团游说要求加入外部竞争保护条款时，这种情况经常发生）； 相反，这属于完全按照预想方式使用工具。


This is worth bearing in mind, given that the Fed’s adoption of QE in 2008 (which it continued to pursue until last year) had the effect of weakening the dollar from 2009 to 2011, prompting the same accusations of “beggar thy neighbor policies” against the US that congressmen now level against others.	应该记住，由于美联储2008年采取的量化宽松（一直持续到去年）在2009—2011年间导致美元贬值，其他国家大可以用美国国会议员们现在提出的“以邻为壑”指控还施彼身。


Such charges are always on shaky ground, regardless of their origin.	这些指控永远站不住脚，不管初衷如何。


Monetary stimulus in one country may even have a beneficial effect on the rest of the world, as its own restored income growth boosts imports from its trading partners.	一国的货币刺激甚至有可能有利于世界其他国家，如果该国收入增长恢复刺激了从贸易伙伴国的进口的话。


Whether one considers the accusations of currency manipulation against the US in 2010, its trading partners in 2015, or a future defendant, designating some trade agency to rule on them would merely cause trouble.	对于货币操纵指控而言，不管是2010年的美国，2015年的美国贸易伙伴国，还是未来的被告，指定某个贸易机构来执法只会让情况更糟。


Trading In Hate	厌恶中的贸易


NEW YORK – The massacre in Norway in July 2011 and the recent attack on a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wisconsin, were the work of right-wing extremists who sought to remake the world in their neo-Nazi image.	纽约—2011年7月挪威大屠杀和最近威斯康星州奥克利克（Oak Creek）袭击锡克教徒事件都是想把世界带回他们的新纳粹梦想的右翼极端分子所为。


Likewise, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, were the work of Islamist extremists who view other religions and cultures as a threat.	类似地，实施了2011年9月11日的恐怖袭击的伊斯兰极端分子也将其他宗教和文化视为威胁。


But it would be simplistic to believe that our leaders do not add fuel to the fire of hatred, even if their chauvinism takes a more “civilized” form.	但如果你认为我们的领导人没有在憎恨上火上浇油，那你就想得太简单了，他们的“沙文主义”无非更加文明些罢了。


Just ask the Japanese, who were continually denounced in the 1980’s as wicked traders.	你可以问问日本人，20世纪80年代，他们一直在猛烈抨击邪恶贸易者。


Or consider how the unceasing refrain against outsourcing nowadays has demonized India.	你也可以想想现在层出不穷的妖魔化印度人的反对外包的批评。


This is not new.	这些都不是新鲜事。


Japan’s heavy burden of atrocities during World War II effectively erased from America’s popular memory the Immigration Act of 1924 and other federal legislation aimed at excluding the Japanese and the Chinese from the United States, as well as racist state legislation, such as California’s 1913 Alien Land Act.	日本在二战中的累累恶行很容易地就将美国人民关于1924年移民法和其他旨在将日本人和中国人驱逐出美国的联邦立法以及加利福尼亚州1913年侨民土地法等种族主义州立法的公众记忆抹去了。


With the war’s outbreak, Americans of Japanese origin were expropriated and herded into concentration camps.	随着战争的爆发，日裔美国人被剥夺了自由，关进了集中营。


California Attorney General Earl Warren championed the measures – the same Earl Warren, who, a decade later, as Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court, would oversee the rejection of the separate-but-equal doctrine at the heart of America’s segregation of its black citizens.	加利福尼亚州总检察长沃伦（Earl Warren）为此叫好，而正是这个沃伦十年后在美国最高法院首席大法官任上主导废除了美国黑人种族隔离政策的核心——隔离但平等（separate-but-equal）。


The anti-Japanese hysteria of the 1980’s fell on fertile ground.	20世纪80年代的反日风潮发展得很快。


Many in the US feared that, just as the nineteenth century had been British and the twentieth century had been American, the twenty-first century would be Japanese.	许多美国人担心，正如19世纪是英国的世纪、20世纪是美国的世纪，21世纪将是日本的世纪。


But, unlike the British or the Americans, the Japanese allegedly were gaining ground in nefarious ways, exporting aggressively to the US and unfairly excluding US exports from their domestic market.	但是，和英国人和美国人不同，日本人的崛起是不光彩的，是通过大量向美国出口以及不公平地将美国货排除在其本身国内市场之外实现的。


Virtually every Japanese policy was interpreted in the worst possible light.	几乎每一项日本政策都被美国人以最大的恶意来推测。


The propaganda was bipartisan in the US, and, with few noteworthy exceptions, was widely disseminated by the country’s uncritical and pseudo-patriotic media.	除了极少数显著例外，反日宣传获得了美国两党的一直支持，并被美国缺乏批评精神的“爱国”媒体广泛传播。


I recall the Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson – alongside John Maynard Keynes, arguably the greatest economist of his time – remarking that anti-Japanese propaganda had gone so far that Japan’s critics would argue that the Japanese bow in greeting Westerners to make it easier to cut them off at the knees.	我记得诺贝尔奖得主萨缪尔森和凯恩斯（当时公认的最伟大经济学家）评论说，反日宣传是如此深入，以至于日本批评家告诉人们，日本人对西方人点头哈腰是为了出其不意斩断西方人的膝盖。


The effect, particularly given a long history of anti-Japanese sentiment, was a predictable wave of racist violence, including the destruction of Japanese cars.	这样做的效果——特别是在长时间的反日情绪酝酿之后——不难预测，那就是种族主义暴力潮，其中就包括砸毁日本车。


The beating death of Vincent Chin, a Chinese-American who was mistaken for a Japanese, also resonated historically, recalling a pseudo-scientific article on how to distinguish the Chinese from the Japanese that Life magazine published in December 1941.	华裔美国人陈果仁（Vincent Chin）因被误认为日本人而遭殴打致死，这也可以说是历史的回音，让人想起了1941年12月号《生活》（Life）杂志上刊登的关于如何区分日本人和中国人的毫无科学根据的文章。


The Indian situation in the US today is different; there is no baggage of unpleasant memories on which prejudice and violence can draw.	印度人如今在美国的处境有所不同，印裔美国人没有关于偏见和暴力的不愉快回忆。


Yet, like a desert cactus, hate can thrive on very little.	但是，厌恶就像是沙漠中的仙人掌，只要一缕阳光就能灿烂。


Unfortunately, US President Barack Obama’s administration has continually harped on outsourcing to India as a cause of American job losses.	不幸的是，奥巴马政府一直指责印度外包是导致美国人失去工作的罪魁。


Similarly, Senator Charles Schumer of New York has indulged in Japan-bashing, China-bashing, and India-bashing – a singular record of truculence and economic illiteracy – while Senator Barbara Boxer of California attacked her most recent electoral opponent, Carly Fiorina, for eliminating 30,000 jobs at Hewlett Packard during her stewardship of the company.	类似地，纽约州参议员舒默（Charles Schumer）热衷于排日、排华和排印——其野蛮和经济上的无知令人发指——而加利福尼亚州参议员波瑟（Barbara Boxer）抨击她最近的选举对手菲奥莉娜（Carly Fiorina）在担任惠普公司CEO期间裁掉了30000个工作岗位。


In fact, in a highly competitive world, Hewlett-Packard managed to save 150,000 jobs by sacrificing those 30,000.	事实上，在一个高度竞争的世界中，惠普公司以牺牲30000个岗位的代价保住了150 000人的工作。


In the current presidential election campaign, the Democratic Party is attacking Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, on the same specious grounds, with a complacent media acquiescing in the Democrats’ de facto India-baiting.	在最近的竞选活动中，在自我感觉良好的媒体的纵容下，民主党以相同的似是而非的内容——事实上的排印政策——抨击奥巴马的共和党挑战者罗姆尼。


The net result has been to fuel resentment against India that spills over into occasional violence.	其净结果就是点燃了反印情绪，并已经引起了零星的暴力。


Groups calling themselves “dot-busters” have attacked Indian women.	自称“互联网破坏者”（dot-busters）的团体攻击印度裔妇女。


When I have written in favor of freer trade and liberal immigration, I have been denounced as a “curry nigger.”	我因为撰写支持更自由贸易和移民的文章而被冠上了“咖喱黑鬼”的名号。


Nor has the Obama administration helped matters by shifting the blame for the failure of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations onto India.	奥巴马政府还将多边贸易谈判多哈回合的失败归咎于印度，这也无济于事。


Outside the US, it is well known that Obama himself pulled the plug on Doha.	在美国之外，众所周知是奥巴马自己搅黄了多哈回合。


The notion that “we are open and others are closed,” a cherished belief of US politicians and media – and an article of faith with the current administration – also feeds the notion that countries like India are wicked traders, much like the Japanese in the 1980’s.	“我们是开放的，其他人是封闭的”这样的论调是美国政客和媒体的口头禅，也是现任政府的��念，它激起了一种观念：印度是邪恶贸易者，与20世纪80年代的日本有一拼。


Much of the world expected more elevated behavior from Obama.	世界在眼巴巴地指望奥巴马拿出更多的提振措施来。


Unfortunately, it has gotten a much lower standard than it anticipated.	不幸的是，奥巴马的答卷比人们的预期差多了。


Trading up Global Trade Talks	推广全球贸易谈判


In the year since the breakdown of the trade talks in Cancun, sentiment has increasingly grown in the developing world that no agreement is better than a bad agreement.	坎昆贸易谈判破裂后，发展中世界日益流行的看法是：没有协议总比糟糕的协议好。


But what would a good agreement look like?	但好协议到底是什么样的呢？


The British Commonwealth recently posed this question to me and the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, an international network of economists committed to helping developing countries.	不久前，英联邦问过我这个问题，他们也就同样的问题咨询过政策对话行动。 这是一个由国际经济学者构成的组织，专门为发展中国家提供帮助。


Our first message was that the current round of trade negotiations, especially as it has evolved, does not deserve even to be called a Development Round.	我们直截了当的回答是：从目前的发展状况看，本轮贸易谈判根本不配称为"发展回合"。


Well before the riots that marked the World Trade Organization talks in Seattle in 1999, I called for a true "development round" of trade talks to redress the inequities of previous rounds.	早在1999年西雅图世贸组织会谈发生骚乱前，我就曾呼吁开展真正意义上的"发展回合"贸易谈判，取消前几轮谈判制定的不公正条款。


The advanced countries, with their dominant corporate and financial interests, had set the agenda for those negotiations. Whether or not developing countries benefited was of little concern.	但发达国家只看重自身的企业和金融利益，并据此制定谈判日程，他们并不看重发展中国家能否从中获益。


Indeed, in the last round of trade negotiations, the Uruguay Round, the world's poorest region, sub-Saharan Africa, was actually made worse off.	贸易谈判的最后一轮乌拉圭回合甚至加剧了世界最贫困的非洲亚撒哈拉地区所面临的窘境。


Our second message was optimistic: if the agenda of the current round is reoriented towards development, and if assistance is provided to manage implementation and adjustment costs, developing countries can gain much.	我们第二个观点相对乐观：如果以发展为目标调整本回合谈判的日程，如果能够提供执行管理和成本调节方面的援助，那么发展中国家就能得到更多好处。


We analyzed which reforms in the international trade regime would most benefit those in the developing world, and we presented an alternative agenda based on our findings.	我们分析了国际贸易体系中的哪些改革对发展中世界最为有利，并以此为基础提交了一份备选议程。


The results were perhaps obvious: more people live from agriculture in the developing world than from manufacturing, so agricultural liberalization must be high on the agenda.	结果也许再明显不过：发展中世界依赖农业生存的人远远多于制造业，因此农业自由化必须提上议事日程。


But genuinely beneficial agricultural reform would need to go further than merely transforming export subsidies into other types of subsidies, because many supposedly non-distorting subsidies lead to more output, which hurts producers in developing countries by lowering prices.	但真正有益的农业改革不应仅仅停留在出口补贴向其它补贴的转化，因为很多公认的非扭曲性补贴会导致农产品产量增加，造成价格下跌而伤害发展中世界的农民。


Trade reforms must be sensitive to the effects on developing countries, many of which are net importers of subsidized agricultural commodities.	贸易改革必须关注在发展中国家的实施效果，它们中有很多是补贴农产品的净进口国。


But some subsidies, like cotton subsidies in the United States, are rightly emblematic of America's bad faith.	但有些补贴，比如美国棉花补贴，是美国阴暗面最恰当的反映。


Eliminating this subsidy would help 10 million poor cotton farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. American taxpayers would also benefit.	取消这一补贴将帮助非洲亚撒哈拉地区数以千万计的贫困棉农，美国的纳税人也将从中获益。


The only losers would be the 25,000 rich farmers who currently divvy up $3-4 billion in government handouts each year.	唯一受损的将是25，000个富庶的美国农场主，目前每年价值30到40亿美元的政府补助都被这些人瓜分殆尽。


Developing countries also need access for the unskilled labor-intensive services in which they have a comparative advantage.	发展中国家还需要劳动密集型非技术性服务的市场准入，他们在这方面具有竞争优势，这在以前举行的贸易谈判中均未提上议事日程。


These were off the agenda in earlier trade rounds, as the US pushed for liberalization of financial services - thus serving its own comparative advantage.	而美国积极推进金融服务的自由化，以借此发挥自己的比较竞争优势。


Today, unskilled services remain largely off the agenda.	今天，议事日程中仍然没有非技术性服务的内容。


Developing countries' alleged gains from capital market liberalization have been widely discussed (although recent studies raise some doubts about these benefits).	发展中国家从放开资金市场中的收益被大肆宣扬（尽管最近的研究对上述收益提出了置疑）。


Nevertheless, the global gains from allowing freer flows of unskilled labor (even temporarily), let alone the benefits to developing countries, far outweigh the benefits from capital market liberalization.	但整个世界都会从非技术性劳动力的自由流动中获益（哪怕这种流动是暂时的），更不要说发展中国家了，这远比资金市场自由化更有意义。


But this issue too is not on the agenda.	但我前面也说过，这个问题还没有提上议事日程。


The trade talks in Cancun raised new subjects - the so-called Singapore issues.	坎昆贸易谈判也提出了新的议题¾就是所谓的新加坡问题。


But even a cursory look at these items reveals that they primarily reflect the interests of developed countries.	但即便匆匆一瞥也能明白，它们主要还是反映发达国家的利益。


Indeed, poor countries' development would arguably have been set back if they had acquiesced in some of the demands.	实际上，如果发展中国家对其中某些条款勉强默许，它们的发展甚至可能因此蒙受损失。


Consider the issue of government procurement.	我们来看看政府采购的问题。


The single largest area of US government procurement is defense, a sector in which even the European Union has found it difficult to make inroads.	国防市场是美国政府采购的最大市场，欧盟企业要进入这一市场都非常困难。


Are developing countries really targeting this area in the next few years?	今后若干年内，发展中国家能否真正瞄准这一市场？


Clearly, this issue is not high on their agenda.	显而易见，这个问题还没有提上他们的议事日程。


Competition is another example.	竞争是另外一个例子。


Without competition, lowering tariffs may merely be reflected in higher profit margins for a monopoly importer.	如果没有竞争，关税的下降只会带来垄断进口商利润的上升。


The most important competition issue for developing countries, however, is reform of dumping duties.	但对于发展中国家来讲，最重要的竞争事务是反倾销税改革。


The US and EU keep out products from developing countries, alleging that they charge less than the cost of production.	美国和欧盟将发展中国家的产品挡在门外，声称他们的售价比生产成本还低。


But why would anyone knowingly sell at a loss?	但人们为什么会故意赔本出售？


This could only be rational if the seller can hope to establish a monopoly position and extract large profits in the future.	这只有在卖方期望获得垄断地位和未来大宗利润的前提下才有此可能。


But few developing countries are in a position to establish such monopoly positions, so the dumping charges are mostly bogus.	但没几个发展中国家有垄断销售的机会，因此多数反倾销税的征收都毫无道理。


As tariff barriers have come down, the unfair "fair trade" laws are increasingly being used as America's favored protectionist tool.	随着关税壁垒的取缔，不公平的"公平贸易"法日益成为美国青睐的保护主义工具。


Treating foreign and domestic firms the same with respect to competitive practices would stop these abuses.	一视同仁地对待国内外企业的竞争行为有助于制止滥用权利。


This, too, should be a high priority of a true development round.	这也应该提上真正意义上"发展回合"谈判的议事日程。


The breakdown of the Cancun talks may yet provide an opportunity for deeper reflection.	坎昆会谈的失败还可能成为一次深入反省的机会。


Now that rich countries no longer need to worry about losing the developing world to Communism, they have an opportunity to redefine the global economic order according to the same principles on which they built successful national economies: fair competition and social justice.	如今富国无须担心发展中世界倒向共产主义，他们有机会根据自己建设成功经济的准则，重新定义全球的经济秩序，上述准则就是公平竞争和社会正义。


Unfortunately, this opportunity was squandered in the Uruguay Round, as developed countries advanced their own interests at the expense of less developed countries.	遗憾的是，乌拉圭回合谈判浪费了这样的机会，因为发达国家以牺牲不发达国家的利益为代价，牟取他们自身的利益。


The round of trade negotiations begun in Doha in November 2001 was launched in a different spirit.	2001年11月多哈开始的贸易回合谈判本着一种完全不同的精神。


It aspired to promote trade as a vehicle of partnership between developed and developing countries.	这次谈判将贸易作为促进发达和发展中国家间伙伴关系的重要工具。


Regrettably, in spite of its name, the Development Round has offered far less to developing countries than one would have hoped.	遗憾的是，尽管有着动听的名字，发展中回合谈判带给发展中国家的帮助却远远低于人们的期望。


Closing Asia’s Emerging Skills Gap	弥合亚洲不断扩大的技能鸿沟


SEOUL – Asia is facing a human-capital challenge.	发自首尔——如今亚洲正面临着人力资本的挑战。


Over the last three decades, significant gains in workforce size and quality helped Asia to become a hub of global supply chains – and thus to sustain rapid progress toward advanced-economy income levels and living standards.	在过去三十年中，大规模高质量劳动力队伍所带来的明显好处帮助亚洲成为了全球供应链的枢纽——并以此不断向发达经济体的收入和生活水平靠拢。


But with workers increasingly unable to meet the demands of the labor market, the region’s remarkable development success could be derailed.	但随着工人越来越难以满足劳动力市场的需求，该地区令人瞩目的发展成就可能会因此受阻。


Asia has plenty of educated young workers.	亚洲拥有很多受过教育的青年工人。


But, at a time of industrial upgrading and ever-increasing technological sophistication, the knowledge and skills gained in school are often insufficient.	但在产业升级和技术复杂度日益提高的时代，从学校获得的知识和技能往往是不够的。


As a result, youth unemployment, underemployment, and job dissatisfaction are on the rise.	其结果是青年失业率，就业不足率和工作不满意度都不断上升。


Throughout Asia, a significant share of workers feel they are over- or under-educated for their jobs, while employers often lament a lack of qualified graduates.	在整个亚洲地区，有很大一部分工人觉得他们的教育程度相对自己的工作过高或者过低，而雇主常常感叹缺乏合格的毕业生。


A Manpower Group survey shows that 48% of employers had difficulty filling vacancies in Asia in 2015, compared to 28% in 2006.	万宝盛华集团（Manpower Group）的调查显示，2015年有48％的用人单位难以找到合适的人选填补在亚洲的职位空缺，而该比率在2006年仅为28％。


Meanwhile, many university graduates – including a whopping 45% in South Korea – are struggling to find jobs.	与此同时却有许多大学毕业生——包括高达45％的韩国毕业生——在努力四处求职。


Despite variations among countries in Asia, some weaknesses in policies and systems designed to boost skills development are endemic.	尽管亚洲各国国情不同，但在提高技能开发的政策和体系方面存在的一些弱点却是共通的。


Among the most damaging is the inability of many countries to impart the right skills through pre-employment and on-the-job training.	其中危害最大的是很多国家无法通过职前和在职培训来传授适当的技能。


In India, for example, only 0.8% of students, on average, participated in formal technical and vocational education at the secondary level from 2006 to 2010.	以印度为例，在2006~2010年间平均只有0. 8％的学生于中学阶段参加了正式的技术和职业教育。


The country’s technical and vocational education and training (TVET) system has enough capacity to train less than one-quarter of the 13 million people entering the labor market each year.	该国每年有1300万人进入劳动力市场，但官方的技术职业教育及培训系统只有能力培养其中不到1/4的人。


TVET is rarely available to workers in small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) or the informal sector, and it receives too little public financing.	在小型和中等规模的企业（SMEs）或者非正规部门工人基本上没机会到该系统受训，对此的公共投入也捉襟见肘。


Moreover, across Asia, a lack of involvement by private companies – that is, potential employers – further undermines the ability of TVET systems to respond adequately to changes in the labor market, thereby reducing graduate employability.	此外在亚洲，私人企业——也是潜在雇主——的参与缺位进一步导致职业教育与培训系统无力充分应对劳动力市场的变化，从而降低了毕业生的就业能力。


In Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka, less than one-quarter of companies conduct formal in-house training.	在孟加拉，印尼，斯里兰卡，只有不到四分之一的企业会举办正式的内部培训。


A dearth of well-qualified teachers and ineffective governance exacerbates the situation.	合资格教师的缺乏和无效治理又令情况进一步恶化。


Governments across Asia must devise ways to transform their education and training systems, so that workers acquire the skills they need to boost economic growth and productivity – the key to better jobs and higher wages.	亚洲各国政府必须想方设法改革自身的教育和培训制度，使职工掌握刺激经济增长和生产率所需的技能 ——这才是创造更佳就业职位和更高工资的关键。


Most important, governments must make skills acquisition a central feature of national development policies.	最重要的是，政府必须将技能获取定为的国家发展政策的核心要件。


At a time of rapid change, education and skills training should be coordinated with, say, trade and industrial policies to improve the chances that emerging labor-market requirements will be met.	在这个快速变化的时代，教育和技能培训应当与贸易和产业等政策相协调，这样才能更有机会满足新兴的劳动力市场需求。


Moreover, general education and TVET systems need to be restructured.	此外，普通教育和技术职业教育与培训体系需要进行重组。


In many Asian countries, formal education is often overly academic or simply low-quality, undermining not only graduates’ employability, but also their capacity to reap the benefits of further TVET.	在许多亚洲国家，正规教育往往过于学术或低质，这不仅损害了毕业生的就业能力，还有他们从进一步职业教育与培训中受益的能力。


To be effective, secondary and tertiary schools must produce graduates with both soft skills, such as communication and teamwork, and relevant technical skills.	为了提升效率，中学和高等教育必须培养毕业生具备沟通和团队合作等软技能，以及相关的技术技能。


Here, stronger partnerships between educators and employers to develop curriculum standards, create internship opportunities, and provide financing would be help significantly.	最有效的做法莫过于让教育工作者和雇主结成强有力的伙伴关系，以制定课程标准，创造实习机会，并提供资金资助。


As for TVET systems, both their capacity and quality must be improved.	而技术职业教育及培训系统的能力和质量都必须提高。


As governments improve their capacity for supervision, coordination, and regulation of the TVET system, actual skills training should be shifted to the private sector, thereby transforming the current supply-driven system to one that responds effectively to changing market demand.	随着各国政府对该体系的监督，协调及监管能力不断提升，实际技能培训应转移到私人部门，从而使得当前由供应为导向的体系向有效满足不断变化市场需求转型。


To this end, governments should encourage public-private partnerships focused on, for example, identifying the labor market’s unmet needs, setting TVET policy priorities, developing curricula and national standards, training TVET teachers, and implementing cost-sharing mechanisms.	为此，政府应鼓励公共-私营伙伴关系将关注点放在确定哪些劳动力市场需求未得到满足，制定职业教育政策重点，制定课程标准和国家标准，培养职业教育师资和实施成本分担机制等方面。


Governments must also ensure better access to TVET systems for disadvantaged groups, including children from poor families and rural areas and employees in SMEs and the informal sector.	政府还必须确保包括贫困家庭和农村地区的孩子以及中小企业的和非正式部门的员工这类弱势群体能更有更多渠道去接受职业教育与培训系统的培训。


Given that the challenge of upgrading educational and skills-training systems is shared across Asia, national governments should not be working in isolation.	鉴于提升教育和技能培训体系是亚洲各国共同面对的挑战，各国政府也不应各自为政。


More knowledge-sharing, especially with regard to curriculum development and teacher training, as well as expert and student exchanges and improved technology-sharing, would strengthen everyone’s efforts considerably.	更多的知识共享，尤其是在课程开发和教师培训方面，以及互派专家与留学生和提升技术共享，将极大加强各国的成效。


Moreover, promoting greater student/worker mobility and improving labor-market flexibility, both within countries and across the region, would help to improve the allocation of skilled workers.	此外，改善各国内部和整个地区之间的学生/���工的流动性并提高劳动力市场灵活性将有利于改善技术工人的分布。


In the coming decades, Asia will continue to contribute a large number of workers to the global labor market.	在未来的几十年里，亚洲将继续向全球劳动力市场贡献大量工人。


How well equipped these workers are to meet ever-evolving market needs will be a key factor influencing not only Asia’s trajectory, but also that of the entire global economy.	这些工人在不断变化的市场需求下的技术精良程度不仅将影响亚洲的运行轨迹，也会使整个全球经济的一个关键因素。


Transatlantic Drift	大西洋关系漂移


BERLIN – On the banks of the Rhine and in Prague, NATO and the European Union will pay homage to the new American president in early April.	柏林——在莱茵河两岸和布拉格，北约和欧盟将在四月初向新上任的美国总统致敬。


There will be pretty pictures and lofty speeches on the future of the transatlantic relationship – in other words, business as usual.	漂亮的照片和故弄玄虚的讲话将充斥着大西洋关系的未来——换句话讲，一切都没有任何变化。


But prior to the Strasbourg and Prague summits, transatlantic relations will be put to the test at the G-20 summit in London.	但在斯特拉斯堡和布拉格峰会召开之前，G-20峰会将考验大西洋关系。


Barack Obama’s election was meant to improve everything – or so it was hoped.	巴拉克·奥巴马当选的本意是要改变当前局势——至少人们曾经希望能够如此。


The drift in transatlantic relations during the eight years of George W. Bush’s presidency was meant to be stopped – and even reversed.	人们希望能阻止、甚至逆转乔治·W·布什总统执政八年里大西洋关系的疏离趋势。


That hope is fading, as the global economic crisis brings the differences between America and Europe to a head.	由于全球经济危机让美国和欧洲的分歧处在紧要关头，这样一种希望正在慢慢地消失。


Of course, at the end of the London summit, the assembled leaders will agree on a joint statement, because nobody can afford failure.	当然，伦敦峰会结束时，因为没有人能够承受失败的代价，聚在一起的领袖们将发表一份联合声明。


But differences will remain.	但分歧仍将继续存在下去。


The US wants to resolve the global crisis by providing substantially more financial help, which Europe is refusing to commit, preferring to focus on financial regulatory reform.	美国希望借助更大规模的财政援助来解决全球危机，欧洲则更关注金融监管改革，而对扩大财政援助的目标不感兴趣。


In the end, a formulaic compromise will be found to include both in the statement.	最后人们会达成公式化的妥协让步，把美欧双方的意见都写进最后的声明里。


The media will then praise their respective governments’ “courage” and “assertiveness,” and cast the outcome as “win on points.”	而后媒体会夸奖各自政府的“勇气”和“自信”，把结果描绘成一场“局部的胜利”。


But what will fall by the wayside is a forceful global response to the gravest crisis since 1929.	但对1929年以后最严重危机做出有效全球反应的努力将会半途而废。


For that battle, there is still no leadership in sight.	在这样一场战斗中，还没有出现真正的领导人物。


The main reason for the new dose of transatlantic drift is that the crisis is being experienced differently.	新一轮大西洋关系疏远的主要原因是人们以不同的方式经历着危机。


America fears deflation; Europe – driven by its largest economy, Germany – fears national debt and inflation.	美国惧怕通缩，而欧洲则在最大经济体德国的驱使下，对国债和通胀充满了恐惧。


The US has made a complete U-turn in ideological and practical terms, relying on Keynes and massive debt-financed public demand to rein in further economic decline.	美国在意识形态和实际操作领域均已发生逆转，依靠凯恩斯和由举债支持的巨大公共需求来控制经济的跌幅。


But Europeans, while having launched national recovery plans, remain unwilling to take on a similar debt risk.	而欧洲尽管实行了国家复苏计划，类似的债务风险却依然超出了他们的承受能力。


Moreover, the European welfare state will cushion the impact of the economic crash, at least for some time.	此外，欧洲福利国家可以缓冲经济崩溃的影响，至少在一段时间内能够如此。


But political tactics also play a role.	但是政治技巧也能够发挥一定的作用。


Obama has just been elected for four years, and his political fate depends on whether he can engineer an economic recovery.	奥巴马刚刚当选四年任期，他的政治命运取决于能否实现经济复苏。


Any hesitation could have profound and irreparable consequences for him.	任何犹豫不决都会为他带来无法修复的深远后果。


In Europe, however, leaders face very different imperatives.	而在欧洲，领导人则需要面对截然不同的规则。


British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is in a hopeless situation.	英国首相戈登·布朗陷入了无望的境地。


The economic crash in the United Kingdom is at least as severe as in America, forcing the government to rely almost entirely on deficit spending to prevent a complete meltdown of its financial system.	英国发生的经济崩溃至少也和美国同样严重，迫使政府几乎完全依靠赤字消费来防止其金融系统彻底崩溃。


Brown has few options left, and the UK is nowhere near the worst of the crisis.	布朗几乎没有其他的选择，而也没有迹象表明英国危机已经见底。


Only a miracle can save him.	想救布朗于水火除非出现奇迹。


Brown’s fate has far-reaching effects for both Germany and France, because it is seen as the writing on the wall.	布朗的命运对德法两国都会产生深远的影响，因为英国的现状被法德两国用来引以为戒。


German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy don’t want to gamble away their own political futures.	德国总理安格拉·默克尔和法国总统尼古拉·萨科奇不愿拿自己的政治未来作为赌注。


Merkel will play the central role in deciding how Europe positions itself, not only because she is the leader of the EU’s largest economy, but also because she wants to be re-elected in September.	默克尔将在决定欧洲立场时发挥核心作用，这不仅因为她是欧盟最大经济体的领导人，还因为她想在9月竞选中谋求连任。


The outcome of that election is increasingly uncertain, and Merkel is now in a very uncomfortable position, which could grow into a real predicament.	9月竞选的结果越来越不确定，而默克尔现在所处的位置非常尴尬，随时有可能演化为一场真正的困局。


If Merkel opts for substantial deficit spending now , she will lose support, which is already fading fast because of increased state debt, nationalization, stimulus programs, etc.	如果默克尔 现在 就选择巨额赤字消费，她将从此失去民众的支持，而国债增加、国有化、刺激计划等已经让这种支持迅速消失。


But if unemployment shoots up in the early summer and some household-name companies go under, she could be seen as having done too little, allowing the Social Democrats to grab the election.	但如果夏初时节出现失业率飙升和家喻户晓的企业陷入破产，民众又可能认为她做得不够，从而使社会民主党取得选举的胜利。


It remains to be seen whether the outcome will be decided on the basis of unemployment or state debt.	目前尚无法确定失业还是国债将决定最后的结果。


But Merkel will do whatever she can to avoid committing herself prematurely, and the London summit is much too early.	但默克尔将尽其所能避免过早决策，而伦敦峰会还远远未到解决问题的时机。


This kind of legitimate and yet petty-minded thinking has serious international consequences.	此类狭隘但合情合理的想法会造成严重的国际后果。


The quarrel between Europe and America is blocking concerted action by the two main Western economies, thereby weakening the West as a whole.	欧美之间的争论阻止了两大西方经济体采取统一行动，进而从整体上削弱了西方的利益。


Moreover, it is driving the US away from Europe and further in the direction of China.	此外，它还使美国在疏远欧洲的同时更加贴近中国。


This will undermine the transatlantic relationship even more, enhance China’s role in the global handling of the crisis, and in all probability ensure that the Chinese emerge as its biggest winner.	这将进一步破坏泛大西洋关系，扩大中国在处理全球危机中所发挥的作用，并且极有可能确保中国成为本次危机中最大的赢家。


The world will have changed once the global economic crisis is over, and the Europeans will not be able to complain about it then.	全球经济危机结束后世界格局将会发生变化，而欧洲到那时将会追悔莫及。


The world will be more Pacific and less transatlantic, and the new axis of global politics will be formed by the Sino-American tandem.	届时太平洋在世界上的影响可能扩大，大西洋的影响将会减小，同时势必以中美两国为轴心构成全球政治新的联合体。


Secretly, the hope in Berlin, Paris, and other European capitals appears to be that Obama will still sort things out.	私底下讲，柏林、巴黎和其他欧洲国家的希望似乎在于奥巴马仍然可以化解这场危机。


If he succeeds as a super Keynes, no one will have had to take any risks with their own political future.	如果他成功地成为超级凯恩斯主义者，那么就没有人需要用自己的政治前途作为赌注。


If he fails, well, thank God one wasn’t involved.	可如果他最终失败，那么谢天谢地我当初没有参与。


Both stances are equally dangerous as far as Europe’s vital interests are concerned.	从欧洲关键利益来考虑这两种态度同样不可取。


If Europe sees its role in this crisis – which might yet turn into a full-blown depression – as that of a free-rider, it will be treated accordingly in the future.	如果欧洲在这场危机中把自己看成一个搭便车者，那么它就会在未来得到这样的待遇。


Transforming Science Education	转变科学教育方式


CHICAGO – Throughout the West, declining standards in science education are threatening future prosperity.	芝加哥—在整个西方社会，科学教育水平的持续下降正在威胁着未来的繁荣。


Since the mid-nineteenth century, the West has depended on technical innovation and scientific derring-do for its influence and growth.	自从十九世纪中叶以来，西方社会一直依靠它在技术上的创新和科学上的大胆行为来提高它的影响力和实现增长。


But the West now faces serious competition from the rising nations of Asia, where education in math and science is flourishing.	但是西方社会现在面临着来自亚洲新兴国家的激烈竞争，那里的数学和科学教育现在进行得非常成功。


In general, competition in science and technology is a blessing – the more advanced a nation is, the better a customer it is.	总体上讲，科技上的竞争是一件幸事。 一个国家越发达，那么它就会是一个更好的客户。


And collaboration and exchange of people make for profitable businesses and higher standards of living.	而人员的协作和交流有助于提高商业利润和人们的生活水平。


But it must be recognized that falling educational standards will eventually hit economic growth.	但是我们必须认识到教育水平的下降将最终阻碍经济的增长。


The West, particularly the United States, has lived through such a moment of recognition before, when the USSR launched Sputnik in 1957.	西方社会，尤其是美国，在苏联于1957年发射人造卫星的那一段时间曾经对这一问题有很好的认识。


The so-called “Sputnik shock” convinced America and the West of the need for radical reform of science education, particularly recruitment, training, and retention of teachers.	所谓的“史波尼克的震撼”使美国和西方社会的人认识到需要对科学教育进行彻底的改革，尤其是在教师的招募、培训和挽留上。


One reform that demands priority today concerns high school science.	今天最需要改革的就是高中的理科教育。


Mathematics, the foundation for all science, depends on its concise language and logical ordering.	数学作为所有科学的基础依赖的是它简洁的语言和逻辑的次序。


Physics, once the subject most dependent on mathematics, provides knowledge about the structure of atoms, and the use of mathematics there has now spread to chemistry and biology.	物理学作为曾经最依赖数学的一门学科提供的是关于原子结构的知识，而对数学的运用现在已经波及到了化学和生物学。


Essentially all phenomena in chemistry find explanations in the quantum atom, while chemistry and physics undergird molecular biology, which, since the discovery of DNA in the 1950s, dominates modern biology.	从本质上讲所有的化学现象都可以在量子原子中找到答案。 而自二十世纪五十年代发现DNA以来一直占据现代生物学主导地位的分子生物学，在背后支撑它的是化学和物理学。


All other sciences – geology, astronomy, neuroscience, oceanography, and myriad hyphenated subjects – depend upon overlapping combinations of biology, chemistry, and physics.	所有其他的学科，包括地质学、天文学、神经系统科学、海洋学以及其他无数学科，都在某种程度上依赖生物学、化学和物理学。


Yet today, the vast majority of high schools start the study of science with biology.	然而今天，绝大部分中学最先学习的一门科学是生物学。


In America, the requirement is usually for three years of science study, and, today, most U.S. students take science in this order: biology, chemistry, physics.	在美国，通常的要求是进行三年的科学学习，今天大部分美国学生学习科学的顺序是这样的：生物学、化学、物理学。


This sequence of study was devised in 1893.	这个学习的顺序是1893年设计的。


I believe that it is obsolete, pedagogically disastrous, and ignores the tremendous scientific advances of the twentieth century.	我想它已经过时了并且在教学上是灾难性的，因为它忽视了二十世纪所取得的巨大的科学进步。


Other industrial nations may cycle through pieces of the disciplines, missing the essential coherence of the P-C-B sequence.	其他工业国家的学科安排也许各不相同，但是都忽略了物理-化学-生物学顺序的重要相干性。


Studying science should begin with physics, not biology.	科学学习应该从物理学而不是生物学开始。


In studying physics, students study algebra simultaneously, motivating them with a sense of the power of mathematics.	在学习物理时，学生们同时也学习了代数，使他们体会到数学的力量。


Moreover, physics begins with everyday phenomena requiring few new words (as opposed to conventional ninth-grade biology): motion, velocity, acceleration, falling objects, a sense of gravity as a force, and some new concepts, e.g. mass, momentum, and energy, but with crisp definitions.	此外，物理学习的一开始是用很少几个新的词汇来解释我们每天看到的现象（这与传统上九年级的生物学形成了鲜明的对比）：运动、速度、加速度、下落的物体、重力的感觉以及一些新的概念，比如质量、动量和能量，这些词汇都具有清晰的定义。


Ninth-grade physics, unlike ninth-grade biology, illustrates the grand sweep of the laws of nature, and the power of an equation to describe a vast number of different phenomena can be taught at this level.	九年级的物理与九年级的生物学不同，描述的是自然规律的所有领域，在这一级还会教给学生一条可以描述大量不同现象的方程。


Classroom experiments make use of simple laboratory devices: inclined planes, pulleys, springs, simple pendulums, but the rules that are revealed have validity out in the real world.	课堂实验使用的是一些简单的实验装置：斜面、滑轮、弹簧、简单的钟摆，但是它们所揭示的规律却是存在于真实世界中的。


The fall of a weight (or an apple!) can be connected to the moon’s orbit around the earth and even to the structure of galaxies holding billions of solar systems.	一个重物（或者一只苹果！ ）的下落可以联系到月亮绕地球旋转的轨道甚至包含几十亿个太阳系的银河系的结构。


Indeed, we can study, on a convenient classroom scale, the same forces that move atoms and planets.	事实上，我们可以在一个便利的课堂上研究推动原子和行星运行的同样的力量。


The last month or more of ninth-grade physics introduces atoms, invisible to the naked eye but with strong indirect support.	九年级物理学习的最后一个月或者最后几个月介绍了原子，它们是用肉眼看不到的但是却提供了巨大的间接支持。


Here physics introduces scales of distances, atoms to galaxies, scales of time, nanoseconds to centuries, and scales of energy from electron volts to megajoules.	在这里物理介绍的距离的范围可以从原子一直到银河系，时间范围从毫微秒到几个世纪，能量范围从电子伏特到兆焦。


These orders of magnitude require metaphors and repetition, but they serve as crucial concepts in our world, especially in cosmology and in evolutionary biology.	这种数量级要求比喻和重复，但是它们却是我们的世界中重要的概念，尤其是在宇宙学和进化生物学领域。


Tenth-grade chemistry makes use of ninth-grade physics, deepening and enriching the student’s grasp, but no basic chemical or biological principles are required for ninth-grade physics.	十年级的化学运用了九年级的物理，加深和丰富学生的理解，但是九年级的物理不需要基本的化学或生物学的原理。


Instead, qualitative applications of physics to chemistry and biology heighten interest and emphasize the connections.	事实上，将物理学运用到化学和生物学可以提高学生的兴趣并且强调它们之间的联系。