Solar power can be produced on the required scale but is too expensive under current technologies.	太阳能发电的总量能满足需求，但在目前的技术条件下成本过高。


Nuclear power is relatively cheap, and could be plentiful, but poses huge dangers for increased proliferation of nuclear-weapons materials.	核电相对便宜，且潜力巨大，但它也为日益严重的核武器原料扩散造成危险。


So: fossil fuels are plentiful, but harmful; renewable sources like wind are good for the climate but not plentiful.	因此：化石燃料储量充足，但却危害气候； 风能等可再生能源对气候无害，但却不足。


Solar power is plentiful but not cheap.	太阳能发电取之不尽但却成本高昂。


Nuclear power is plentiful but not safe.	核电同样充足但却不安全。


Improved technologies can offer a way out of this bind, but only if we think and act ahead.	技术的进步可以让我们从这一桎梏中摆脱出来，但前提是我们必须未雨绸缪。


There are two main kinds of technologies that look most promising.	有两种技术看起来最有前途。


The first is energy conservation through more fuel-efficient vehicles.	第一种是通过使用更高燃料效率的汽车来节省能源。


New hybrid automobiles, pioneered by Toyota, use both gasoline and electric power to boost gasoline efficiency by approximately two-fold.	由丰田率先推出的混合动力汽车，能使用汽油和电能，从而将汽油的使用效率提高了近两倍。


A massive changeover to more fuel-efficient vehicles would make a big difference, especially as the numbers of vehicles on the road soars in China, India, and other developing countries.	向有更高燃油效率的车辆的大规模转变会使局面大为改观。 特别是在中国、印度等汽车数量大的发展中国家。


The second big technology that could make a major difference is called “carbon capture and storage.”	第二大意义深远的技术被称作：“碳的捕获和储存。


The idea is to “capture” the carbon dioxide that is emitted in power plants and other big factories when fossil fuels are burned, thereby preventing it from entering the atmosphere.	”其理念是将发电厂和其他大工厂在燃烧化石燃料时所排放的二氧化碳“捕获”，从而阻止其被排入大气。


The captured carbon is then pumped into underground storage sites such as empty oil fields and other suitable locations.	被捕获的碳会被注入空的油田和其他适合的地下贮存处。


All of the key aspects of the technology – capturing the carbon dioxide, putting it into pipelines for shipment, and then depositing it underground – have already been demonstrated, but they have not yet been tried, and proven, on a large scale.	该技术的所有关键方面—二氧化碳的捕获，排入管道中以便进一步传输，以及最后放入地下—都已有所展示，但它还没有经过更大规模的试验和证实。


There is strong evidence, however, that it would not cost the world huge amounts to undertake large-scale carbon capture and storage.	但有足够的证据表明进行大规模的碳捕获和储存不会给世界带来过高的成本。


The problem is timing.	问题是时间。


The changeover of the world’s vehicles to hybrid and other efficient technologies will take decades, not years.	全世界的车辆���换成混合动力和其他更为高效的技术需要数十年，而不是几年。


So will the changeover of power plants to carbon capture and storage.	发电厂采用碳捕获和储存技术同样需要很长的时间。


If we procrastinate, the dangers posed by climate change will confront us as we talk, debate, and plan.	如果我们犹豫不决，那么在我们讨论、争辩和规划的同时，还会面临气候变化所带来的危险。


The world needs to start acting soon - very soon - if it is to head off the major threats.	世界需要立刻行动—尽可能快—这样才能阻止重大的威胁。


All major regions of the world will need to be involved.	世界上所有主要的地区都应参与进来。


Today’s developing countries are not yet major emitters of carbon dioxide, but with economic growth they will become so.	当今的发展中国家还不是二氧化碳的主要排放国，但随着经济的增长这将不可避免。


Therefore, all countries, both developed and developing, need to do their part, with rich countries helping poor countries cover the financial costs of adjustment.	因此，包括发达国家和发展中国家在内的所有国家，都应该担负起各自的责任。 富国应该帮助穷国承担转变的经济成本。


Plenty of carbon dioxide will be emitted into the atmosphere as the world’s climate negotiators fly to and from the Montreal meeting.	就在世界各地的气候谈判者们飞赴蒙特利尔参加会议时，大量的二氧化碳又将被排放到大气中。


Let’s press our governments to make real progress when they meet; otherwise they will merely be adding to the problem.	让我们敦促我们的政府在与会期间取得真正的进展； 否则他们所作的一切都只会使气候问题更为严重。


Navigating the Energy Revolution	导航能源革命


RIYADH/LONDON – For decades, the international energy landscape has been relatively stable, with producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Algeria selling oil and gas to consumers in the United States and Europe.	利雅得/伦敦——几十年来，国际能源格局一直相对稳定，沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和阿尔及利亚等生产国将石油和天然气出售给的美国和欧洲的消费者。


In a few years, however, the energy terrain is likely to be unrecognizable, as dramatic technological, economic, and geopolitical changes reshape commercial relationships worldwide.	但随着引人注目的技术、经济和地缘政治变化重塑全球商业关系，能源格局可能会在短短几年内面目全非。


What is needed is a new governance structure, one that moves beyond traditional bilateral relationships between producers and consumers.	我们需要全新的治理结构，以便超越生产者和消费者之间传统的双边关系。


In a rapidly evolving world, guaranteeing energy security will require the careful management of multiple, interlocking relationships.	在迅速变化的世界确保能源安全需要精心管理环环相扣的多重关系。


Only an inclusive international forum, in which complex ideas can be shared and debated, is likely to prove adequate to the task of navigating the new era of energy use, production, and consumption.	只有可以分享和探讨复杂理念的包容性国际论坛才有可能完成引导新时代能源应用、生产和消费的任务。


The ongoing changes are profound.	正在发生的变化意义深刻。


In many energy-exporting countries, domestic consumption is rising steeply.	许多能源出口国国内消费量急剧增长。


Historically, these countries have treated energy as a cheap resource.	从历史上看，能源在上述国家一直扮演着廉价资源的角色。


Today, they are increasingly taking steps to remove subsidies, introduce market prices, and increase efficiency – policies that are more typically associated with energy-importing countries.	如今，他们正越来越多地采取措施取消补贴、引入市场价和提高效率——这些都是与能源进口国相关的典型政策。


BP predicts that in the Middle East, with its extensive fossil-fuel reserves, primary energy consumption will grow 77% by 2035.	英国石油公司预计中东地区凭借其丰富的化石燃料储量，到2035年一次性能源消费将增长77%。


At the same time, some traditional importers are tapping new sources of energy and becoming producers, changing the direction of energy flows.	与此同时，一些传统进口国正利用新能源来源成为生产商，从而改变能源流动的方向。


The shale-energy revolution in the US is perhaps the best-known example of this shift, but it is not the only one.	美国页岩能源革命或许是这种转变最有名的例子，但并不是唯一一个。


The rapidly growing renewable-energy industry is another factor disrupting traditional relationships between producers and consumers.	迅速发展的可再生能源业是干扰传统生产和消费关系的另一个���素。


In the first half of 2014, 13% of electricity in Germany came from wind energy alone.	2014年上半年，德国耗电总量的13%都来源于风能一项。


Denmark, a country that in the 1970s was almost entirely dependent on energy imports, is now the European Union’s only net energy exporter, often generating more than 100% of its electricity needs from wind power.	20世纪70年代曾完全依赖于能源进口的丹麦现在成了欧盟唯一一个能源净出口国，风力发电满足了该国100%的电力需求。


Meanwhile, advances in energy efficiency are also reducing demand for traditional producers’ exports.	同时，节能进步也降低了对传统生产国出口的需求。


Highly efficient buildings often can be easily heated with locally produced renewable electricity and supplied with hot water from solar collectors.	高效建筑往往能轻松利用当地出产的可再生能源发电，并依靠太阳能集热器满足热水需求。


The introduction of the Near Zero Energy Buildings standard for new buildings in the EU is set to reduce drastically dependence on gas for heating.	欧盟新建筑引入的近零能耗建筑标准注定会使大大降低天然气采暖需求。


The risk is that these rapid changes will combine with destabilizing geopolitics to trigger a retreat from global energy markets.	风险在于上述快速变化将与地缘政治动荡一道引发全球能源市场衰退。


If countries began to define energy security as energy independence and try to supply all their own needs, the result could be expensive overcapacity, massive price distortions, slower technological progress, and weaker economic growth.	如果各国开始将能源安全定义为能源独立并试图满足自身的所有需求，其结果可能导致昂贵的产能过剩、大规模价格扭曲、技术进步放缓和经济增长变弱。


With the need to maintain trust in the competitive, politically charged, and often unpredictable energy sector both greater than ever and more difficult than ever to meet, an international forum dedicated to addressing concerns and easing tensions could be a powerful tool.	为了对充满竞争、政治色彩浓厚且往往不可预知的能源业保持信任，致力于解决问题和缓解紧张局势的国际论坛可能会非常有效。


But it must have the right focus.	但论坛所关注的焦点必须恰当。


For example, it should not aim at producing legally binding decisions.	比方说，论坛不应着眼于达成具有法律约束力的决定。


Plenty of bodies, such as the World Trade Organization, the Energy Charter, and the Energy Community, already do an excellent job of developing rules or enforcing compliance in the energy sector.	世贸组织、能源宪章和能源共同体等大量机构已经在能源业制定规则或落实合规管理方面完成了出色的工作。


Moreover, though such a body should be inclusive, it need not have global ambitions; it would be impractical to try to bring everybody to the table.	此外，这样的机构应该具有包容性，但不需要具有全球抱负； 试图将所有国家纳入到系统当中是不切实际的选择。


And while its founders should take care that it not be led or dominated by a single country or bloc of countries, there is no harm if it starts small, with only a few countries, before beginning to expand.	虽然创始人应该防止它被单一国家或若干国家所引导或主宰，但在开始拓展前规模有限是没有害处的。


Indeed, the European Commission, which is working toward creating an energy union, is well placed to initiate an open dialogue with non-EU countries on long-term energy policies.	事实上，致力于创建能源联盟的欧盟委员会完全有能力与非欧盟国家就长期能源政策进行公开对话。


The EU is the largest energy importer in the world, and it would be well served to join the discussion of its energy strategy to a conversation with the world’s main exporters.	欧盟是全世界最大的能源进口国，如果能与主要出口国就能源战略进行探讨无疑是有好处的。


As the EU revises both its energy and foreign affairs policies, it should not miss the chance to integrate an open energy policy dialogue into its planning.	因此在修改能源和外交政策时，欧盟应当抓住机会将公开能源政策对话纳入到规划当中。


In this context, one of the commission’s traditional weaknesses – that foreign and energy policies are usually decided by individual member states – could serve as an important advantage.	这种情况下，委员会的传统弱点——即外交和能源政策通常由各成员国自主决定——可能转化为一项重要的优势。


The commission will be seen as a facilitator of the discussion, rather than a leader or a dominant player.	委员会将被视为讨论的促进者，而不是领导者或主要参与方。


Given a proper forum for ironing out disagreements, the rapidly changing energy landscape could be a source of new prosperity.	如果建立起熨平分歧的恰当论坛，迅速变化的能源格局可能带来新的繁荣。


The alternative is a world at risk of tensions and misunderstandings – ones that could easily jump out of the realm of energy policy into international relations and security.	还有一种可能是造成紧张和误解——上述分歧很可能超出能源政策的范畴对国际关系和安全造成影响。


Charisma We Can Believe In	我们所信仰的魅力


CAMBRIDGE – A leadership transition is scheduled in two major autocracies in 2012. Neither is likely to be a surprise.	发自剑桥——世界上两大独裁国家都已预定在2012年实现权力交接。


Xi Jinping is set to replace Hu Jintao as President in China, and, in Russia, Vladimir Putin has announced that he will reclaim the presidency from Dmitri Medvedev.	在中国，习近平将接替胡锦涛就任国家主席，俄罗斯总理普京则声明自己将从梅德韦杰夫手中重新接过总统宝座。


Among the world’s democracies, political outcomes this year are less predictable.	而全球各民主国家的政治结局则难以逆料。


Nicolas Sarkozy faces a difficult presidential re-election campaign in France, as does Barack Obama in the United States.	法国总统萨科齐的连任之路困难重重，美国总统奥巴马也难言轻松。


In the 2008 US presidential election, the press told us that Obama won because he had “charisma” – the special power to inspire fascination and loyalty.	在2008年美国总统大选上，媒体告诉我们奥巴马之所以获胜是因为他有“魅力”——某种能激发迷恋和忠诚的特殊力量。


If so, how can his re-election be uncertain just four years later?	如果真是如此，那为什么仅仅四年之后连任就变得如此艰难？


Can a leader lose his or her charisma?	一位领导人是否会丧失自身的魅力？


Does charisma originate in the individual, in that person’s followers, or in the situation?	这些魅力是来自于其个人，追随者，还是当时的特定情况？


Academic research points to all three.	对此学术研究认为：这三点都可能存在。


Charisma proves surprisingly hard to identify in advance.	令人吃惊的是，魅力是难以事先测定的。


A recent survey concluded that “relatively little” is known about who charismatic leaders are.	最近有项调查认为我们对魅力领袖究竟是何人“所知甚少”。


Dick Morris, an American political consultant, reports that in his experience, “charisma is the most elusive of political traits, because it doesn’t exist in reality; only in our perception once a candidate has made it by hard work and good issues.”	一位美国政治顾问迪克·莫里斯（Dick Morris）凭经验总结说：“魅力是政治特征中最难以捉摸的部分，因为它并不是任何实质性的存在； 只有在一位候选人通过勤奋和某些巧妙的议题将其创造出来后，它才会出现于我们的观念之中。


Similarly, the business press has described many a CEO as “charismatic” when things are going well, only to withdraw the label when profits fall.	”同样，商业媒体也曾用“魅力”这个词来形容许多企业CEO，但当利润下跌时，这个标签也就无影无踪了。


Political scientists have tried to create charisma scales that would predict votes or presidential ratings, but they have not proven fruitful.	政治科学家尝试创立一套魅力测量标准来预测投票趋势或者总统候选人排名，但至今都无法取得什么成果。


Among US presidents, John F. Kennedy is often described as charismatic, but obviously not for everyone, given that he failed to capture a majority of the popular vote, and his ratings varied during his presidency.	在历届美国总统中约翰·肯尼迪（John F. Kennedy）常常被认为是最有魅力的，但这显然无法得到所有人的同意，因为他当时只是以微弱优势赢得选举，而且在任期内的民望也高低不定。


Kennedy’s successor, Lyndon Johnson, lamented that he lacked charisma.	而肯尼迪遇刺后的继任者林登·约翰逊则哀叹自己缺乏魅力。


That was true of his relations with the public, but Johnson could be magnetic – even overwhelming – in personal contacts.	这在他与公众的恶劣关系中可见一斑，但在人脉经营方面约翰逊却有极大吸引力——甚至可是说是压倒性的。


One careful study of presidential rhetoric found that even such famous orators as Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan could not count on charisma to enact their programs.	一项针对总统修辞学方面的详细研究也证明即便是富兰克林·罗斯福或者罗纳德·里根这样的著名演说家都无法仅靠个人魅力来推动政策项目。


Charisma is more easily identified after the fact.	魅力更容易在事件发生后被定义。


In that sense, the concept is circular.	在这个意义上，它其实是个自我循环的概念。


It is like the old Chinese concept of the “mandate of heaven”: emperors were said to rule because they had it, and when they were overthrown, it was because they had lost it.	正如古代中国所谓的“受命于天”：帝王因为得到了“天”的旨意而进行统治，而当他们都被推翻的时候，人们就认为“天”已经收回成命了。


But no one could predict when that would happen.	但没有人能预测这些事件将在何时发生。


Similarly, success is often used to prove – after the fact – that a modern political leader has charisma. It is much harder to use charisma to predict who will be a successful leader.	同样，成功也经常被用来证明——以马后炮的形式——某个现代领导人具备魅力，但反过来用魅力预测谁会成为成功领导者则非常困难。


Followers are more likely to attribute charisma to leaders when they feel a strong need for change, often in the context of a personal, organizational, or social crisis.	而追随者们在感觉需要做出变革——在个人，组织或者社会遭遇危机的时候——更容易在领导人身上发现魅力。


For example, the British public did not regard Winston Churchill as a charismatic leader in 1939, but, a year later, his vision, confidence, and communication skills gave him charisma, given Britons’ anxiety after the fall of France and the Dunkirk evacuation.	以丘吉尔为例，1939年时英国公众并不觉得此人有何魅力，但就在一年后法国沦陷以及敦克尔克大撤退的恐慌之中，丘吉尔的远见，信心以及沟通技巧则令他充满了魅力。


And then, in 1945, after the public’s focus had turned from winning the war to constructing a welfare state, Churchill was voted out of office.	一直到1945年，随着公众的注意力从赢得战争转向建立一个福利国家，丘吉尔也只得离任。


His charisma did not predict defeat; the change in followers’ needs did.	他的魅力并未预测���自身的下台，而追随者们需求的变化却导致了这一点。


In practice, charisma is a vague synonym for “personal magnetism.”	在实际情况中，魅力是“个人吸引力”的一个模糊近义词。


People vary in their ability to attract others, and their attraction depends partly on inherent traits, partly on learned skills, and partly on social context.	人们吸引他人的能力参差不齐，这些能力一部分取决于内在特性，一部分来自于所学的技能，最后一部分则来源自当时的社会大背景。


Some dimensions of personal attraction, such as appearance and non-verbal communication, can be tested.	个人吸引力的某些方面，比如外貌和非语言沟通手段，可以被测试出来。


Various studies show that people who are rated as attractive are treated more favorably than unattractive people.	许多研究都表明那些被认为拥有吸引力的人会比无吸引力者获得更好的待遇。


One study finds that a handsome man enjoys an edge over an ugly rival that is worth 6-8% of the vote.	一项研究发现英俊的男性会比丑陋的对手多获得6~8%的选票。


For women, the advantage is close to ten points.	而对女性来说这一优势则进一步扩大到近10%。


Non-verbal signals account for a major part of human communications, and simple experiments have shown that some people communicate non-verbally better than others.	非语言信号则是人类沟通的一个主要方面，而简单实验也表明某些人的非语言沟通能力强于他人。


For example, a Princeton University study found that when people were shown images of two candidates in unfamiliar elections, they could predict the winners seven times out of ten.	比如普林斯顿大学的一项研究发现当向被试者展示一场陌生选举的两位候选人照片时，他们有70%的概率选到获胜者。


A similar study at Harvard, in which people were shown 10-second silent video clips of 58 elections, found that viewers’ predictions explained 20% of the variation in the two-party vote – a more powerful variable than economic performance.	哈佛大学的一项类似研究则从历年58场美国州长选举的民主/共和两党竞选对手身上各选取10秒钟无声剪辑，要求被试者观看并判断胜负，并发现这些人的预测因素占了选举变化量的20%——比经济表现变量所产生的影响更大。


Ironically, the predictions became poorer when the sound was turned on.	但讽刺的是，一旦加入了声音之后，这些预测的作用就被削弱了。


In the 2008 election, Americans felt disillusioned by the Bush administration’s war in Iraq, and by the financial crisis that erupted two months before the vote.	在2008年选举中，美国人一方面对布什政府的伊拉克战争感到幻灭，在距正式投票还有两个月的时候又遭遇了金融危机。


Obama was an attractive young candidate who spoke well and projected a sense of hope for the future.	而奥巴马又是如此能言善辩并投射出某种对未来的希望。


Clearly, this is one reason why Obama gained a reputation for charisma.	很显然，这就是他为何以魅力著称的原因。


But part of his charisma was in the eyes of his followers.	但他的一部分魅力其实存在于追随者的眼中。


People sometimes say of charisma that “we know it when we see it,” but we are also looking in a mirror.	有时人们会认为魅力是一种“看到了就能感知到的东西”，但我们其实也是在看一面镜子。


As the economy worsened, unemployment rose, and Obama had to deal with the messy compromises of governing, the mirror became cloudier.	随着经济恶化失业率上升，奥巴马在管治过程中又不免沾手种种肮脏的妥协交易，那面镜子也逐渐变得污浊不堪了。


Charisma tells us something about a candidate, but it tells us even more about ourselves, the mood of our country, and the types of change we desire.	魅力可以为我们解读一位候选人的某些方面，但解读更多的其实是我们自身，整个国家的情绪，以及我们所希望的变革。


Hard economic times make it difficult to maintain charisma.	经济困难的时候魅力也随之难以维持。


Obama faces the continuing challenges of unemployment and a recalcitrant Republican opposition, and Sarkozy must contend with similar problems.	奥巴马面对着失业的持续挑战和共和党不屈不挠的阻挠，萨科齐也不能幸免。


When they are campaigning, however, their rhetoric will be freed from the need to compromise.	但当他们再次竞选总统的时候，他们的承诺又会把所有的妥协放在一边。


This year’s elections will be the true test of their charisma.	而今年的选举，也将成为他们自身魅力的试金石。


Charity in Hard Times	艰难世道中的慈善事业


PRINCETON – As I tour the U.S. promoting my new book, The Life You Can Save: Acting Now to End World Poverty , I am often asked if this isn’t the wrong time to call on affluent people to increase their effort to end poverty in other countries.	普林斯顿-当我在全美国为我的新书《你能挽救的生命：现在行动起来，结束世界贫困》做宣传时，我常常被人问及这个问题，即现在来呼吁富裕的人们拿出更多的钱来消灭他国贫困现状，是不是显得不合时宜？


I reply emphatically that it is not.	我总是强调地回答确实如此。


There is no doubt that the world economy is in trouble.	毫无疑问，世界经济陷入了困境；


But if governments or individuals use this as an excuse to reduce assistance to the world’s poorest people, they would only multiply the seriousness of the problem for the world as a whole.	但如果政府或个人以此为借口而减少援助世上最贫困的人们，他们只能会成倍地加大此问题的全球的严重性。


The financial crisis has been more damaging for the poor than it has been for the rich.	金融危机对穷人的打击比富人更大。


Without in any way minimizing the economic and psychological blow that people experience when they lose their jobs, the unemployed in affluent countries still have a safety net, in the form of social security payments, and usually free health care and free education for their children.	尽管无法尽可能减低富裕国家中的失业人们在失业时遭遇的经济上和心理上的打击，但他们仍然享有一个安全网络，这种网络的形式是向他们提供社会保障金，通常还有免费的医疗保健和孩子的免费教育。


They also have sanitation and safe drinking water.	他们也能享有卫生设施和安全的饮用水。


The poor in developing countries have none of these benefits, which proves fatal for an estimated 18 million of them each year.	所有这些福利，发展中国家的穷人却是一项也没能享受。 这每年造成了估计有一千八百万人的死亡。


That’s a higher annual death toll than during World War II, and it’s easier to prevent.	这比整个二战期间所死亡的人数还多，而防止这种现象的发生却又很容易。


Of those who die from avoidable, poverty-related causes, nearly ten million, according to UNICEF, are children under five.	根据联合国儿童基金会的统计，死于这些可避免的由贫困造成的原因的人当中，有近一千万是五岁以下的儿童。


They die from diseases like measles, diarrhea, and malaria that are easy and inexpensive to treat or prevent.	他们死于如麻疹、痢疾和疟疾这样的治疗或预防非常 容易且廉价的疾病。


We may feel the pain of falling back from a level of affluence to which we have grown accustomed, but most people in developed countries are still, by historical standards, extraordinarily well off.	从我们已习以为常的富裕的水准上掉落，我们可能会感到痛苦，但大多数生活在发达国家的人们，按历史标准来衡量，他们仍然是非常富裕的。


Have you, in the past week, bought a bottle of water, a beer, or a coffee when tap water was available at no cost?	在过去一周里，当你明知自来水是免费供应的，你仍买过一瓶瓶装水、啤酒或咖啡吗？


If you did, that’s a luxury that the world’s poorest billion people can’t afford, because they have to live for an entire day on what you spent on just one of those drinks.	如果你买过，你要知道，对于世上最贫穷的10亿人来说，这是一种他们负担不起的奢侈行为，因为他们的一整天的生活费就是你买一瓶饮料的钱。


One reason that we can afford to increase the amount of aid we give is that the amount we are giving now is insignificant in comparison to what we spend on other things.	我们有能力提高援助额的原因之一是，相比于我们花在其它事情上的钱，我们现在捐出的钱是微不足道的。


The United States government, for example, spends about $22 billion on foreign aid, while Americans privately donate perhaps another $10 billion.	比如，美国政府的对外援助额约220亿美元，而美国私人捐赠额可能还有100亿美元。


Compared to the $787 billion stimulus package signed by President Barack Obama last month, that $32 billion is trivial.	比起奥巴马总统上个月签署的七千八百七十亿美元的刺激方案来，这笔320亿美元的资金实在是微不足道。


It’s also less than $0.25 for every $100 that Americans earn.	也就是说，美国人每挣到100美元，其中只有不到0. 25美元是用来对外援助。


Of course, some nations do better: Sweden, Norway, Denmark, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg all exceed the United Nations target of allocating the equivalent of 0.7% of gross national income in foreign aid.	当然，有些国家在这方面做得更好：比如瑞典、挪威、丹麦、荷兰和卢森堡等国，这些国家都超过联合国提出的把0. 70 ％的国民总收入用于对外援助。


But even $0.70 for every $100 is still not a lot with which to confront one of the great moral problems of our age.	但是，即使是每100美元中拿出0. 70美元来用来解决我们这个时代的这个巨大的道德难题，也是不算多的。


If extreme poverty is allowed to increase, it will give rise to new problems, including new diseases that will spread from countries that cannot provide adequate health care to those that can.	如果允许赤贫增加，这将引起新问题，包括新的疾病将从不能提供充分的医疗保健的那些国家蔓延到那些可以提供的国家。


Poverty will lead to more migrants seeking to move, whether legally or not, to rich nations.	贫困将导致更多的移民寻求移民到富裕国家，无论是通过合法还是不合法的渠道。


When there is eventually an economic recovery, the global economy will be smaller than it would be if all the world’s people could take part in it.	如果世界上所有的人都能参与全球经济的话，当经济复苏最终来临时，全球经济总量会更大。


Nor is the global financial crisis a justification for the world’s leaders failing to keep their word.	全球金融危机也不是世界各国领导人不信守诺言得理由。


Nearly nine years ago, at the Millennium Development Summit in New York, the leaders of 180 countries, including all the major affluent nations, promised that by 2015 they would together achieve the Millennium Development Goals.	大约9年前，在纽约举行的“千年发展首脑会议”上，包括所有主要富裕国家的180个国家的领导人承诺，到2015年，他们将共同实现千年发展目标。


These goals include halving the proportion of the world’s people living in poverty and ensuring that children everywhere receive a full primary education.	这些目标包括减少世界上一半生活在贫困中的人口，并确保世界各地的儿童享受全程初级教育。


Since that meeting in 2000, the commitments made by most nations have fallen short of what is required, and 2015 is now only six years away.	自2000年那次会议以来，大多数国家所已作出的努力，都没有达到对它们的要求，而现在离2015年只有6年的时间了。


If we cut back on aid, we will fail to keep our promise, and poorer countries will learn, once again, that rich countries’ actions fall short of their inspiring rhetoric about reducing world poverty.	如果我们削减援助额，我们将会失信，而贫国将再一次了解到富国的那些激动人心的减少世界贫困的华丽的辞藻不会全部付诸实践。


That is not a good basis for future cooperation between rich and poor countries on issues such as climate change.	这样一来，对今后的穷富国之间在诸如气候变化问题上的合作来说，这不是一个良好的基础。


Finally, if anything good comes out of this global financial crisis, it will be a reassessment of our basic values and priorities.	最后，如果说这次全球性金融危机带来了什么好处的话，那就是对我们的基本价值观和优先事项进行重新评估。


We need to recognize that what really matters isn’t buying more and more consumer goods, but family, friends, and knowing that we are doing something worthwhile with our lives.	我们需要认识到，真正重要的不是购买越来越多的消费品，而是家人、朋友和明白我们正在用我们的生命做一些有意义的事情。


Helping to reduce the appalling consequences of world poverty should be part of that reassessment.	而帮助减少世界贫困的可怕后果应是这种重新评估的一部分。


Charlie Hebdo’s Rights and Wrongs	《查理周刊》的对与错


DAVOS – In the wake of the terrorist attack on the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris, declarations of “Je suis Charlie” have echoed worldwide.	达沃斯—在法国讽刺杂志、巴黎《查理周刊》遭遇恐怖袭击的背景下，“我是查理”的宣言响彻全世界。


And, indeed, Charlie Hebdo should be free to publish what it likes, without fear of violence, as long as it does not directly incite violence itself.	事实上，《查理周刊》应能自由地刊登它想刊登的东西而不必担心暴力，只要它本身不直接煽动暴力。


But does that mean that other news outlets and individuals should republish it?	但这意味着其他新闻机构和个人应该转载它吗？


To be sure, freedom of expression should almost never be repressed, a point that the United States Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes emphasized in a dissenting opinion in a case concerning the US Constitution’s guarantee of free speech.	平心而论，言论自由应该永不遭遇镇压，美国最高法院法官霍姆斯（Oliver Wendell Holmes）在一宗与美国宪法对自由言论的保护的案例中，通过反对意见强调了这一点。


“[W]e should be eternally vigilant against attempts to check the expression of opinions that we loathe and believe to be fraught with death,” he wrote, “unless they so imminently threaten immediate interference with the lawful and pressing purposes of the law that an immediate check is required to save the country.”	“[我]们永远警惕抑制被我们讨厌、认为充满了死亡的观点的表达的图谋，”他写道，“除非这些表达构成了紧迫的威胁，立即与法律规定的合法和紧要目的相违背，让我们不得不立刻予以抑制以拯救国家。 ”


From this perspective, I would have marched with the millions who gathered in Paris, proclaiming “Je suis Charlie.”	从这个角度看，我应该加入巴黎的百万人大集会，高呼“我是查理。


And I fully understand the desire to purchase the subsequent issue of Charlie Hebdo, published – with bravery and determination – a week after the attack.	”我也完全理解购买新一期《查理周刊》的渴望——带着勇气和决心，它在袭击发生一周后面市。


People not just in France, but around the world, want to show their solidarity with the victims and support the fundamental principle of free speech.	不但是法国，全世界人民都希望证明他们与受害者一条心、将支持言论自由的基本原则。


But supporting Charlie Hebdo’s right to express whatever message it chooses does not necessarily imply support for its portrayals of the Prophet Mohammed or a willingness to participate in their dissemination.	但支持《查理周刊》表达一切它所选择的信息的权利并不一定意味着支持其刊登的先知穆罕默德漫画或愿意参与这些漫画的传播。


Support for the principle does not demand endorsement of the practice.	支持原则并不一定需要支持行动。


In the days after the attack, it became an act of solidarity to retweet the offending cartoons, rather than simply posting expressions of support.	袭击发生后，转发那些有冒犯之意的卡通形象而不是简单地用言语表达支持成为一场团结运动。


The Lebanese blogger Gino Raidy wrote, “Please, publish the cartoons again, and again, and again.	黎巴嫩博客博主吉诺·莱迪（Gino Raidy）写道，“求求你们，不断发布这些卡通形象，不要停。


Maybe with time, the murderous savages that kill for a drawing in the name of their god, will get it through their thick heads that they can never stop us, and every attempt to only fuels our cause more (sic).”	也许假以时日，以主之名扼杀一幅漫画的野蛮屠夫终究会发现，他们无法阻止我们，每一次尝试都只能让我们更加坚定（原文如此）。 ”


The passion in Raidy’s appeal is admirable, and the sentiment is understandable.	莱迪的呼吁充满了激情，这值得敬仰，他的情绪也不难理解。


But the view that defending free speech imposes a duty to disseminate specific content is deeply problematic.	但认为捍卫言论自由意味着传播具体内容的义务也是大有问题的。


The decision to publish images or words that disrespect or defame others’ deeply held beliefs must be a personal one.	发行亵渎或中伤他人虔诚信仰的形象或言论的决定只能是个人决定。


Each individual must be free to make that decision, which is why anti-blasphemy laws violate universal human rights.	每个人都必须能够自由地做出这一决定，这也是反渎神法违反普世人权的原因。


The fundamental principle underlying freedom of expression is that speech must be answered with more speech, never with violence, imprisonment, or censorship.	言论自由的基本原则是言论必须用其他言论来应对，决不能使用暴力、禁锢或审查。


Anti-blasphemy laws not only violate that principle; they can easily be abused as a tool of political power and impoverish their societies by imposing a code of rigid conformity.	反渎神法不但违反了这一原则，也很容易被滥用，沦为政治权力的工具，让社会变得僵化刻板而变得贫瘠。


But people can choose to avoid speech that others will hear as blasphemy.	但人们可以避免发表他人会认为渎神的言论。


Though I will defend the right of individuals to make racist statements, I would not make such statements myself or listen to a speaker making them.	尽管我捍卫个人发表种族主义言论的权利，但我自己绝不会发表这样的言论，也不会听发表这一言论的人。


After all, such views undermine many other important principles – namely, those needed to create and sustain an inclusive, tolerant, and peaceful society.	毕竟，这些观点有损于其他许多重要原则——即那些创造和维持包容、容忍和和平的社会所需要的原则。


In the case of Charlie Hebdo,the question is whether depictions of the Prophet Muhammad are likely to foster the kinds of debate and behavior that are compatible with the coexistence of Muslims, Christians, Jews, other believers, and atheists in a society that upholds the freedom of worship and expression.	在《查理周刊》的例子中，问题在于先知穆罕默德的漫画形象是否可能引起与一个崇尚崇拜和言论自由的社会中的穆斯林、基督徒、犹太人、其他信仰者和无神论者共存相容的争论和行为。


All human beings are entitled to hold something – a place, an idea, an image – sacred.	所有人类都有权将某些东西视为神圣——不管是地方、思想还是形象。


Desecrating a shrine, defacing a cross, or, in the US, burning a flag, is an aggressive and insulting act, one that causes real pain for believers.	亵渎神社、丑化十字架、或在美国焚烧国旗都属于冒犯和侮辱行为，会引起信仰者的真正痛苦。


It may incite a conversation, but it does so from a position of profound disrespect.	它可能会引起对话，但是以大不敬的姿态引起的。


Charlie Hebdo, of course, used humor precisely to challenge sacred cows.	当然，《查理周刊》运用的幽默恰恰挑战了神明。


And its editors bravely and nobly stood by their convictions, even when their lives were threatened.	它的编辑们勇敢而优雅地捍卫自己的主张，即使生命受到威胁。


We should uphold their right to publish.	我们应该坚持他们的出版权利。


But to embrace the images they published as a statement of Enlightenment conviction weakens the values that are essential to a civilized society.	但将他们所出版的形象作为启蒙运动信念的表达则削弱了对文明社会至关重要的价值。


The new issue of Charlie Hebdo, which featured another image of the Prophet on its cover, sparked protest marches in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Tunisia.	新一期《查理周刊》在封面上又刊登了一幅先知漫画，在巴基斯坦、阿富汗、科威特、黎巴嫩和叙利亚造成反对大游行。


Commenting on the intensity of these protests, Iyad El-Baghdadi, a self-described “Islamic libertarian,” aptly tweeted: “Unapologetic hatred is going mainstream everywhere.	自称“伊斯兰自由派”的伊亚德·巴格达迪（Iyad El-Baghdadi）在Tweet上评论了这些游行的强度，他恰当地指出：“无悔意的仇恨到处都在成为主流。


I worry for our world.”	我为世界担心。


Mobilizing mass demonstrations around whether you “are” or “are not” Charlie Hebdo invites demagoguery from extreme factions in all societies that gain from fueling sectarian conflict.	”动员广大群众就你“是”或“不是”《查理周刊》举行示威不啻在所有得益于不断升温的宗派冲突的社会中煽动极端派系。


The easiest way to compound the tragedy in Paris would be to use the deaths of Charlie Hebdo’s editor, Stéphane Charbonnier, and 11 others to fan the flames of religious hatred.	加剧巴黎悲剧的最佳办法莫过于用《查理周刊》编辑查波涅尔（Stéphane Charbonnier）和其他11人的死煽动宗教仇恨之火。


Surely we can defend people’s right to express themselves without approving or endorsing their views.	当然，我们可以捍卫人们表达自我的权利而不认可或支持他们的观点。


In the case of Charlie Hebdo, the decision not to disseminate its cartoons can be driven not by fear, but by respect.	在《查理周刊》的例子中，拒绝传播其漫画也许是出于恐惧，但也有可能是出于尊重。


Uniting Against Extremism	团结起来反对极端主义


LONDON – Governments worldwide are increasingly facing a fundamental question: how to deal with the causes of violent – often religiously motivated – extremism.	伦敦——一个根本性问题正日益困扰着世界各国政府：如何面对起源于宗教目的的暴力极端主义倾向。


They are not short of advice – and from a wide range of sources.	形形色色的建议来自于方方面面，但政府所缺的并不是建议。


A former Al Qaeda member, for example, recently stated that the UK authorities’ failure to explain properly why it had not intervened in Syria’s civil war risked radicalizing more Muslims.	比方说，一名前基地组织成员不久前曾经表示英国当局未能很好地解释不干预叙利亚内战的原因有可能进一步激化穆斯林的激进情绪。


Meanwhile, London Mayor Boris Johnson suggested removing children from radicalized parents.	此外，伦敦市市长鲍里斯·约翰逊建议从激进的父母身边带走他们的孩子。


Although such ideas have received a somewhat mixed reception, they are a welcome sign of much-needed public debate.	虽然人们对类似想法反应各式各样，但至少有一点令人欣慰，那就是这标志着我们迫切需要的公众辩论的开始。


Most people accept the need for security services to respond to terror, particularly in the aftermath of an attack.	多数人接受动用安全部队来应对恐怖行为，尤其是在袭击发生之后。


Achieving lasting change, however, requires addressing not just the consequences of extremism but also its root causes.	但只有同时解决恐怖主义的后果和根源问题，才能带来持久的变化。


What can be done?	我们究竟应该采取哪些举措？


First, governments must start thinking about education as a security issue.	首先，政府必须开始把教育提升到安全问题的高度。


For example, while endlessly worrying about the existence of dangerous material online, we could do more to educate our youth in the critical thinking skills needed to dismiss such content.	比方说，与其没完没了地担心网上的危险内容，还不如教给年轻人不去关注类似内容的关键技巧。


This is a new challenge, and it will not be easy.	这是一项全新的挑战，而且完成任务的难度很大。


Before the digital revolution, young people met those from other countries and cultures in relatively restricted circumstances, such as on a holiday abroad or a school exchange program.	数字革命前，年轻人接触其他国家文化的机会相对有限，比方说去国外度假或者校际交流。


Today, however, they can interact with any number of people from anywhere in the world in a matter of seconds on their smart phones.	但今天他们却可以借助智能手机在短短几秒之内与任何国家的任何人实现互动。


Many of these connections take place on un-moderated platforms that expose children to a wide variety of opinions, beliefs, and cultures – not all positive or safe.	很多交流平台都缺乏监管，让未成年人接触到各种各样的观点、信仰和文化——但这些内容并不总是积极和安全的。


Unfortunately, there are few sources of good advice to help young people navigate these dangers.	令人遗憾的是，没有多少好的建议能帮助年轻人控制这些危险因素。


Most parents are barely able to keep up with the evolving technology, let alone oversee their children’s online conversations.	多数家长自己都只能勉强跟上技术的发展，更不用说监督孩子的在线对话。


This means that it is up to our education systems to intervene early to help the connected generation interact safely in today’s digital world.	这就是说需要由我们的教育制度进行早期干预来帮助互联网一代在今天的数字世界中安全互动。


If we can teach children to recognize what they have in common with those from other cultures, we can also help them to resist the prejudices of those who seek to distort the truth and divide people.	如果我们能教孩子认识到与其他文化的共同之处，当然也能帮助他们抵制歪曲真相者的分裂偏见。


The Tony Blair Faith Foundation’s schools program has made an important start in this respect.	托尼·布莱尔信仰基金会学校计划在这方面做出了重要贡献。


It provides a moderated space in which 12-17 year olds worldwide can discuss challenging issues from a variety of perspectives, in a respectful and safe way.	12-17岁的孩子可以在该计划提供的监管网站上从不同角度以相互尊重并且安全的方式探讨各式各样的难题。


Second, governments should support those groups that are already working on the ground and online to counter extremism.	其次，政府应该为已经存在的反恐怖主义实体及网络组织提供支持。


One approach is to encourage “counter-narratives.”	方法之一是鼓励表达“相反的观点”。


In countries afflicted by religious conflict, such as Nigeria, this means helping religious leaders to develop strong inter-community relationships.	在尼日利亚等饱受宗教冲突困扰的国家，这意味着帮助宗教领袖建立起牢固的跨群体关系。


We know that when people of different religions work together for the good of the wider community, they come to understand one another in a way that helps them resist the call of extremists.	我们知道当不同宗教信仰的群众为了更广泛的群体利益而走到一起，他们对对方的了解能够有助于抵御极端分子的诱惑。


This type of sustained long-term work comes into its own when the worst happens.	最坏情况下���往会自发地开展上述长期持续性工作。


For example, in response to attacks last year on a church in Peshawar, Pakistan, local Muslims formed human chains around churches, allowing them to hold services.	比方说，为了应对去年在巴基斯坦白沙瓦发生的教堂袭击，当地穆斯林在教堂周围排起人墙，让教堂能够正常提供服务。


Such visible demonstrations of defiance in the face of violence strengthen ties between communities and can prevent the division that extremists try to generate.	面对暴力活动的这类显而易见的反抗行动强化了团体之间的联系，同时能够挫败极端分子的分裂企图。


The benefits of such inter-community spirit are evident in one of the world’s most diverse cities, London.	在伦敦这个全世界最多元化的城市，这种跨团体精神带来了显而易见的好处。


Last June’s arson attack on the Somali Bravanese Welfare Association’s center in the city’s Muswell Hill district (which followed the murder of British Army fusilier Lee Rigby by religious extremists) served only to unite its different communities.	去年六月在伦敦Muswell Hill区索马里布拉瓦福利会（就在英国陆军燧发枪手Lee Rigby被宗教极端分子谋杀之后不久）发生的纵火案所起的作用仅仅是将不同的宗教群体团结在了一起。


London Citizens, a network of local civic institutions, organized Jewish assistance programs for Somali Muslims, including after-school events at Hendon School and Eden School.	当地一家民间机构网络伦敦市民为索马里穆斯林发起了犹太援助计划，包括在亨顿学校和伊顿学校举办课后活动。


Meanwhile, Finchley Reform Synagogue hosted a Ramadan festival, and Finchley United Synagogue hosted an Eid event.	此外，芬奇利改革会堂举办了斋月节，芬奇利美国犹太教堂举办了开斋节活动。


These activities sent a powerful signal to extremists that their attempts to turn religious communities against each other had the opposite effect.	这些活动向极端分子发出了强有力的信号，他们在宗教团体间挑起矛盾的作法取得了相反的效果。


Third, it is essential to remove online extremist content promptly.	第三，必须即刻清理网上的恐怖内容。


YouTube uses sophisticated technical procedures to ensure that the most inappropriate videos are swiftly taken down.	YouTube采用了复杂的技术程序，以确保能够迅速撤下最不恰当的视频。


But this is only half the story: we also need to support and promote alternative, credible voices online to counter the extremist narrative.	但这只是问题的一个方面：我们还要支持和推动替代性宣传，在网上发掘可信的观点来对抗极端主义者。


Of course, this does not mean uploading videos of politicians in suits telling young men not to join the jihad in Syria.	当然，这并不是说上传身着西服的政治家教导年轻人不要加入叙利亚圣战的视频文件。


Rather, it means identifying and backing those groups whose anti-extremist messages resonate with the intended audience.	相反，这意味着找到反恐信息能与目标受众产生共鸣的团体并且给予支持。


Finally, in these tough economic times, we need to consider cost-effective ways to promote this work globally.	最后，在目前困难的经济条件下，我们需要找到低成本的方式在全球推广这项事业。


One future source of support for effective but under-resourced groups might be the recently established Global Fund for Community Engagement and Resilience, the first ever public-private global fund to support local, grass-roots efforts to counter extremism.	未来可能为有效但资金不足组织提供支持的或许是不久前成立的团体参与及适应性全球基金，这是有史以来第一家公私合营的全球基金，为打击恐怖主义的地方草根力量提供支持。


As the pace of globalization and technological change accelerates, extremists are finding ever more creative ways to spread their message.	随着全球化和技术改革的步伐不断加快，极端分子正在用越来越有创意的方式传播他们的信息。


Governments must respond in kind.	各国政府也必须采取相应的措施。


Latin America’s Tale of Two Crises	拉美两大危机的故事


MEXICO CITY – If one were an irredeemable optimist, upcoming events in Venezuela and Colombia could be viewed as a harbinger of good things to come.	墨西哥城—如果你是个无可救药的乐观主义者，那么委内瑞拉和哥伦比亚即将发生的事情将会被你视为吉兆。


In Venezuela, the October 7 presidential election may put an end to Hugo Chávez’s 14 years in power, along with his systematic destruction of the economy, media clampdowns, and endless meddling in other countries’ affairs.	在委内瑞拉，10月7日的总统大选可能会宣告查韦斯14年统治结束，与之一起结束的是对经济的系统性破坏、媒体管制和无穷无尽的干涉他国内政。


In Colombia, peace talks scheduled for October 8 in Norway between President Juan Manuel Santos’s government and the FARC guerrillas may bring an end to 40 years of war and bloodshed.	在哥伦比亚，总统桑托斯政府和FARC游击队将在10月8日于挪威展开和平谈判，可能终结40年的战争和流血。


Unfortunately, neither of these outcomes is likely.	不幸的是，这两个结果都不太可能发生。


In both cases, what seems desirable appears highly improbable.	不论在委内瑞拉还是哥伦比亚，人们渴望之事都是可望而不可及。


Chávez has participated directly in four Venezuelan elections: in 1998, when he was elected for the first time; in 2004, when the opposition forced a recall vote; in 2006, when he was re-elected; and now, as he recovers from cancer and the country is in the midst of a huge public-safety crisis that has made Caracas one of the most dangerous cities in the world.	查韦斯直接参与过四次委内瑞拉大选：1998年他首次当选总统； 2004年反对派掀起了罢免投票；


Chávez won the first three, and, for several reasons, seems poised to win again.	查韦斯刚从癌症中恢复，委内瑞拉则处于深重的危机中，加拉加斯已经成为全世界最危险的城市。 查韦斯在前三次大选中都获胜了，处于某些原因，第四次也会以他获胜告终。


For starters, Chávez is a formidable campaigner, and he has at his disposal every available lever of state power, from the Electoral Council to PDVSA, the national oil company.	首先，查韦斯是个可怕的竞选对手，他对国家权力的控制可谓无孔不入，从选举委员会到国有石油公司PDVSA都在他的控制下。


As skillful as Henrique Capriles Radonski, the opposition candidate, may be, the playing field is so uneven that he appears to stand little chance.	对于反对派候选人拉东斯基（Henrique Capriles Radonski）的能力来说，这根本就不是一场公平的较量，他没有获胜机会。


One example: Venezuela’s overall population has grown 14% over the past 13 years, but electoral rolls have jumped 53%; the new voters can be ghosts, Colombians, or several generations of chavista supporters already registered to vote, even before they are born.	举个例子：委内瑞拉总人口在过去13年里增加了14%，但选举人增加了53%； 新增选民可能是僵尸选民、哥伦比亚人，或是尚未出身就注册成为选民的未来若干代查韦斯支持者。


Most polls give Chávez a significant advantage (of up to 15 percentage points), but nonetheless offer a glimmer of hope to the opposition.	大部分民调都显示查韦斯优势明显（大约有15个百分点），但尽管如此，反对派仍有一线生机。


Many of the more impartial polling firms, such as Luis Christiansen’s Consultores 21, Varianzas, and Keller, all show a surprisingly large proportion of undecided voters – those who do not answer or do not know for whom they will vote.	Luis Christiansen的Consultores 21公司、Varianzas公司和Keller公司等多家较中立的调查公司的民调显示，摇摆选民比例惊人地高，他们或者没有表达自己的投票倾向，或者根本不知道该投谁。


In highly polarized and politicized Venezuela, it is unlikely that upward of 20% of voters have yet to decide what they will do.	在高度极端化和政治化的委内瑞拉，不可能出现高达20%的选民尚未决定投票方向的情况。


Consequently, some analysts suspect a “hidden opposition vote,” such as occurred in Nicaragua in 1990, when Violeta Chamorrro won the presidency, or in Mexico in 2000, when Vicente Fox emerged victorious.	因此，一些分析者怀疑存在一批 “潜在的反对票”，当时1990年的尼加拉瓜和2000年的墨西哥都出现过这类选票，最后查莫罗（Violeta Chamorrro）和福克斯分别在两国获胜。


According to this logic, the “undecided” are actually leaning toward Capriles, and if their number is larger than Chávez’s margin in the polls, the caudillo will lose.	根据���一逻辑，“未决定”选票实际上是倾向拉东斯基的，只要这部分选票大过查韦斯的民调优势，查韦斯就可能失败。


That is not impossible, but it is unlikely, especially if Chávez can count on several percentage points of tampered votes before and after the polling booths close.	这并不是不可能，但可能性极低，特别是如果查韦斯在投票结束后可以赢得一部分摇摆选票的话。


Despite the president’s illness, the enormous problems facing Venezuela, and fatigue after 13 years of chavismo, it is still Chávez’s election to lose.	尽管查韦斯身体有恙，委内瑞拉问题丛生，查韦斯派13年后疲态尽露，但要把查韦斯选下台绝不容易。


The status quo will also likely persist in Colombia.	哥伦比亚则可能继续维持现状。


No one knows exactly when Santos decided to seek new negotiations with Latin America’s oldest – and one of its most vicious – guerrilla groups; nor do any but his closest aides know how many meetings have already taken place, where and when, or what happened.	没人知道桑托斯是什么时候决定于拉美最老牌、同时也是最残忍之一的游击队组织进行新谈判的； 也只有他的亲信部下才知道双方已经进行了多少次会面，在哪里和何时会的面，会面时又发生过什么。


But much evidence suggests that most of the process began some time ago, and was meant to be kept secret until broad agreement had been reached on most of the outstanding issues.	但许多证据表明，谈判进程开始已经有一段时间了，且在就大部分现有问题达成广泛一致前不会公开。


Santos probably wanted to have the talks viewed as a relatively unconditional surrender and disarmament by the “narco-guerrillas.”	桑托斯可能希望这次谈判可以被视为“缉毒游击队”的相对无条件投降和解除武装。


He would have wanted to avoid the grandstanding and propaganda generally associated with public negotiations.	他也许想避免公开谈判所难以避免的炫耀和宣传色彩。


So the talks may have been revealed not because they had advanced sufficiently, but because someone wanted to sabotage them.	因此谈判之所以被披露，可能并不是因为进展令人满意，而是因为有人想破坏它。


Who could that be?	那么这个人是谁？


The predictable suspect is former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe.	意料中的嫌疑人是前哥伦比亚总统乌里韦。


Although Santos was both Uribe’s defense minister and preferred successor, relations between the two have soured.	尽管桑托斯是乌里韦的国防部长和理想接班人，但两者的关系已经恶化。


The bottom line is that Uribe thought Santos would do his bidding as president, and Santos is convinced that his (high but declining) popularity is of his own making, not borrowed from Uribe.	根本原因可能是乌里韦觉得桑托斯当了总统应该对他投桃报李，而桑托斯觉得他的支持率（很高，但在下跌）是靠自己赢得的，不是乌里韦给的。


These strains express themselves on policy issues.	如此龃龉在政治问题上显露无疑。


Uribe criticizes Santos – through up to 40 tweets per day to his more than one million followers – for repudiating his “democratic security” stance, for the growth of the “Bacrim” (petty-crime gangs), for appeasing Colombia’s two hostile neighbors, Venezuela and Ecuador, and for prosecuting some of his aides on corruption charges.	乌里韦每天要在他有一百多万粉丝的tweet上发40条微博批评桑托斯，说他否定他的“民主安全”立场，使哥伦比亚“Bacrim”（轻微犯罪团伙）愈演愈烈，对两个敌对邻国——委内瑞拉和厄瓜多尔不够强硬，还把他的几位助手送上了反腐法庭。


Santos says nothing, but replies in kind: making peace with Chávez and Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, prosecuting human rights violations under Uribe, and arresting several of his allegedly corrupt officials.	桑托斯什么都没说，以行动作为回击：与查韦斯和厄瓜多尔总统科雷亚保持和平，对乌里韦时期的破坏人权案件提起诉讼，逮捕一批涉及腐败案的官员。


And now, seemingly out of the blue, he has defied and even offended Uribe by undertaking negotiations with the despised FARC, after having delivered such devastating military blows to them that perhaps, this time around, the peace process will prosper.	但如今，似乎在一夜之间，桑托斯开始违抗甚至回击乌里韦：与人人鄙视的FARC谈判。 在谈判前，他对FARC进行了毁灭性的军事打击，以使此次和平进程更易达成成果。


One can see why Uribe would threaten to leak news about the negotiations, as well as why Santos would try to preempt the leaks by going public and having them take place in the open (the talks will begin in Oslo, but will be pursued in Havana).	我们可以看到，乌里韦为什么要泄露关于谈判的消息，也可以看到为什么桑托斯会以将谈判公开化、让所有人都看到谈判进程作为回击（谈判将在奥斯陆开始，但会在哈瓦那进行）。


The problem is that, although there are good examples of publicized – if not public – peace talks that have succeeded, there are more instances of failure or indefinite stalemate, owing to the pressure of working under the glare of the international spotlight.	问题在于，尽管被公布的——如果不是公开的话——和平谈判成功的例子不少，但失败和陷入永久僵局的情况给更多，这是因为在全世界目光下工作的压力是巨大的。


As a fervent supporter of Santos’s human-rights efforts, of his call for a major debate on drug legalization, and of his attempt to end Colombia’s “Forty Years’ War,” I fear that Uribe has fatally wounded the peace process, and will prolong the country’s bloody and fruitless status quo indefinitely.	作为桑托斯人权行动、他对开展毒品法制化问题争论的呼吁以及他结束哥伦比亚“四十年战争”努力的坚定支持者，我担心乌里韦会对和平进程带来致命伤害，导致哥伦比亚的流血现状无限期延长下去。


That is a great pity.	这实在令人遗憾。


So, in this tale of two South American neighbors, unfortunately, little will change – unless, as so often happens, the unexpected suddenly becomes inevitable, in which case all bets are off.	因此，很不幸，在南美的这两个邻国，发生变化的可能性极小——除非像过去一再发生的那样，出人意料之事突然变得无可避免，让所有人都大跌眼镜。


Cheap Oil and Global Growth	廉价石油和全球增长


LONDON – Violent swings in oil prices are destabilizing economies and financial markets worldwide.	伦敦—油价的暴力波动正在动摇全世界经济和金融市场。


When the oil price halved last year, from $110 to $55 a barrel, the cause was obvious: Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase its share of the global oil market by expanding production.	去年油价腰斩，从每桶110美元暴跌至55美元，原因显而易见：沙特阿拉伯决定通过扩大产能增加其占全球石油市场的份额。


But what accounts for the further plunge in oil prices in the last few weeks – to lows last seen in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis – and how will it affect the world economy?	但过去几周油价进一步暴跌——跌到了2008年全球金融危机爆发后的所达到的低位——原因何在，对世界经济会造成怎样的影响？


The standard explanation is weak Chinese demand, with the oil-price collapse widely regarded as a portent of recession, either in China or for the entire global economy.	标准解释是中国需求疲软，石油价格崩盘被广泛视为衰退的前兆，可能是中国衰退，也可能是整个全球经济衰退。


But this is almost certainly wrong, even though it seems to be confirmed by the tight correlation between oil and equity markets, which have fallen to their lowest levels since 2009 not only in China, but also in Europe and most emerging economies.	但这几乎肯定是错误的，即使石油和股市之间的强相关性似乎确认了这一点。 这一相关性已跌至2009年以来的最低点，不仅中国如此，欧洲和大部分新兴经济体亦然。


The predictive significance of oil prices is indeed impressive, but only as a contrary indicator: Falling oil prices have never correctly predicted an economic downturn.	石油价格的预测重要性确实令人印象深刻，不过是作为作为反向指标：石油价格下跌从未正确预示过经济衰退。


On all recent occasions when the price of oil was halved – 1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, and 2001-2002 – faster global growth followed.	在最近所发生的所有油价腰斩现象中——1982—1983、1985—1986、1992—1993、1997—1998、2001—2002年——随之而来的都是全球增长加速。


Conversely, every global recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by a sharp increase in oil prices.	反之，在过去50年中，所有全球刷爱退之前都发生了油价暴涨。


Most recently, the price of oil almost tripled, from $50 to $140, in the year leading up to the 2008 crash; it then plunged to $40 in the six months immediately before the economic recovery that started in April 2009.	最近一次在是2008年大崩盘之前的一年中，油价几乎上涨两倍； 接着，油价在六个月的时间内暴跌至40美元，紧随而至的便是2009年4月开始的经济复苏。


An important corollary for commodity-producing developing countries is that industrial metal prices, which really are leading indicators of economic activity, may well increase after an oil-price collapse.	对生产大宗商品的发展中国家来说，一个重要推论是工业金属价格——这才真正是经济活动的先行指标——极有可能在油价崩盘后上涨。


In 1986-87, for example, metal prices doubled a year after oil prices fell by half.	比如，1986—1987年，金属价格在油价腰斩后的一年里实现翻番。


A powerful economic mechanism underlies the inverse correlation between oil prices and global growth.	油价和全球增长的负相关性背后是一个强大的经济规律。


Because the world burns 34 billion barrels of oil every year, a $10 fall in the price of oil shifts $340 billion from oil producers to consumers.	由于世界每年要燃烧340亿桶石油，油价下跌10美元就意味着石油生产者向消费者让渡了3,400亿美元。


Thus, the $60 price decline since last August will redistribute more than $2 trillion annually to oil consumers, providing a bigger income boost than the combined US and Chinese fiscal stimulus in 2009.	因此，自去年8月以来油价下跌60美元意味着一年超过2万亿美元被再分配给石油消费者，所形成的收入刺激效应比2009年美国和中国财政刺激之和还要大。


Because oil consumers generally spend extra income fairly quickly, while governments (which collect the bulk of global oil revenues) usually maintain public spending by borrowing or running down reserves, the net effect of lower oil prices has always been positive for global growth.	总体而言，石油消费者会相当快地将新增收入花掉，而政府（它获得了全球石油收入的大头）常常通过贷款或减少储备为公共支出融资，因此油价下跌的净效应永远对全球增长起到积极作用。


According to the International Monetary Fund, the fall in oil prices this year should boost 2016 GDP by 0.5-1% globally, including growth of 0.3-0.4% in Europe, 1-1.2% in the US, and 1-2% in China.	据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，今年油价下跌应能刺激2016年GDP提高0. 5—1%，其中欧洲提高0.


But if growth is likely to accelerate next year in oil-consuming economies such as China, what explains plunging oil prices?	但如果中国等石油消费经济体明年增长有望加速，那么油价暴跌又是什么原因？


The answer lies not in China’s economy and oil demand, but in Middle East geopolitics and oil supply.	原因不在于中国经济和石油需求，而在于中东地缘政治和石油供给。


While Saudi production policies were clearly behind last year’s halving of the oil price, the latest plunge began on July 6, within days of the deal to lift international sanctions against Iran.	沙特生产政策显然是去年油价腰斩背后的原因，而7月6日开始的新一轮暴跌就发生在取消伊朗国际制裁的协议达成几天后。


The Iran nuclear deal refuted the widespread but naive assumption that geopolitics can drive oil prices in only one direction.	伊朗核协议推翻了一个普遍存在的天真假设：地缘政治只能单向地推动石油价格。


Traders suddenly recalled that geopolitical events can increase oil supplies, not just reduce them – and that further geopolitics-driven supply boosts are likely in the years ahead.	交易者突然想起，地缘政治事件也可以增加石油供给，而不只是减少石油供给——而在未来几年中还可能有进一步的地缘政治驱动的供给刺激。


Conditions in Libya, Russia, Venezuela, and Nigeria are already so bad that further damage to their oil output is hard to imagine.	利比亚、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和尼日利亚等国的条件十分糟糕，很难想象它们的石油产量还会受到什么影响。


On the contrary, with so many of the world’s most productive oil regions gripped by political chaos, any sign of stabilization can quickly boost supplies.	相反，许多世界上产油量最大的地区深陷政治混乱，任何稳定迹象都可能迅速刺激供给。


That is what happened in Iraq last year, and Iran is now taking this process to a higher level.	去年的伊拉克就是如此，而现在的伊朗更是将这一过程推到了新高度。


Once sanctions are lifted, Iran promises to double oil exports almost immediately to two million barrels daily, and then to double exports again by the end of the decade.	只要制裁被解除，伊朗承诺可以几乎立刻将石油出口量提高一倍，达到每天两百万桶，到2020年还可以将出口量再翻一番。


To do this, Iran would have to boost its total output (including domestic consumption) to six million barrels per day, roughly equal to its peak production in the 1970s.	要实现这一点，伊朗需要将其总产出（包括国内消费）提高到每天六百万桶，大致相当于20世纪70年代的巅峰产量。


Given the enormous advances in oil-extraction technology since the 1970s and the immense size of Iran’s reserves (the fourth-largest in the world, after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela), restoring output to the levels of 40 years ago seems a modest objective.	自20世纪70年代以来，石油开采技术有了长足的进步，而伊朗石油储备更是规模巨大（世界第四，仅次于沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉），回复40年前的产出绝对算不上困难的目标。


To find buyers for all this extra oil, roughly equal to the extra output produced by the US shale revolution, Iran will have to compete fiercely not only with Saudi Arabia, but also with Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other low-cost producers.	要为这一大致等于美国页岩革命所增加的产出的额外产量找到买家，伊朗不但需要和沙特阿拉伯进行激烈竞争，还需要面临伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯和其他低成本产油国的竞争。


All of these countries are also determined to restore their output to previous peak levels and should be able to pump more oil than they did in the 1970s and 1980s by exploiting new production technologies pioneered in the US.	所有这些国家也决心要将产出恢复至此前的巅峰水平，只要利用美国率先采取的新生产技术，它们将产量提高到20世纪七八十年代以上应该不是难事。


In this newly competitive environment, oil will trade like any normal commodity, with the Saudi monopoly broken and North American production costs setting a long-term price ceiling of around $50 a barrel, for reasons I set out in January.	在这一新的竞争环境中，石油将像任何普通大宗商品一样交易，沙特阿拉伯的垄断将被打破，北美的生产成本将给长期价格带来每桶50美元左右的上限，原因我在1月已经讨论过了。


So, if you want to understand falling oil prices, forget about Chinese consumption and focus on Middle East production.	因此，如果你想理解油价的下跌，最好忘了中国消费，把目光集中在中东产量上。


And if you want to understand the world economy, forget about stock markets and focus on the fact that cheap oil always boosts global growth.	如果你希望理解世界经济，最好忘了股市，将目光集中在廉价石油永远刺激全球增长这一事实上。


The Chennai Warning	钦奈的警告


THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, INDIA – Even as world leaders were meeting in Paris to address climate change, the city of Chennai (formerly Madras), the capital of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, reeled under the onslaught of the heaviest rainfall in 104 years.	特里凡得琅，印度——就在世界领导人在巴黎开会应对气候变化的同时，印度南部泰米尔纳德邦的首府钦奈市（原名马德拉斯市）在104年来最严重的降雨过程中遭受了严重的影响。


The city, home to five million people, has virtually shut down, with roads flooded and nearly 5,000 homes under water.	这座拥有500万人的城市几乎完全关闭，道路和近5，000所民宅被洪水淹没。


More than 450 people have died.	洪水造成450多人死亡。


Air and rail services have been suspended, power and phone lines have been disrupted, and hospital patients are succumbing as life-support equipment fails.	航空和铁路服务已经中断，电力和电话线遭到破坏，生命保障设备无法工作造成医院患者死亡。


Victims had to be rescued in boats by India’s army and air force.	印度陆军和空军派遣救援船只救援受害者。


It is difficult to imagine India’s fourth-largest city – schools, colleges, IT companies, factories, and commercial establishments – being brought to a halt.	拥有大量学校、学院、IT企业、工厂和商业设施的印度第四大城市陷入瘫痪的确很难想象。


And yet global automakers such as Ford, Daimler, BMW, and Renault took the unprecedented decision to halt production at their local factories.	而福特、戴姆勒、宝马和雷诺等全球汽车制造商史无前例地决定停止当地工厂的生产工作。


The venerable Chennai newspaper The Hindu failed for the first time in 178 years to bring out a print edition, because its employees couldn’t get to work (though it gamely produced an online issue).	因为员工无法上班，久负盛名的钦奈报纸《印度教徒报》178年来首次出现印刷版停刊的情况（尽管它仍顽强地发行了网络版）。


Inevitably, many linked the flooding in Chennai to the talks in Paris, seeing the devastating rains as proof of the catastrophic consequences of human action on the world’s weather.	很多人自然而然地将钦奈洪水和巴黎会谈相联，认为这次毁灭性降雨证明了人类活动对世界气候造成了灾难性的影响。


More such disasters, they suggested, are inescapable unless world leaders in Paris take decisive action to limit global climate change.	他们认为更多的灾难不可避免，除非世界领导人在巴黎采取果断行动限制全球气候变化。


“We are feeling climate change’s fast-growing impact now,” said India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pointing to Chennai and calling upon industrialized countries to do more to mitigate global warming.	“我们正在切身感受到气候变化急剧扩大的影响，”印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在谈到钦奈洪灾时说，并呼吁工业化国家采取更多措施缓解全球变暖的影响。


Indeed, scientists predict that India will become significantly hotter over the next few decades, and therefore more prone to a range of weather-related calamities such as droughts, floods, crop failures, and cyclones.	事实上，科学家预测未来几十年印度气温将显著升高，因此发生干旱、洪涝、农作物歉收和龙卷风等一系列气候灾难的可能性也更大。


Chennai, they say, is just a warning.	他们认为钦奈洪灾仅仅是一次警告。


But another factor arguably offers a more proximate explanation for what went wrong.	但另外一个因素更为贴切地解释了问题的所在。


It is normal for India’s east coast around Chennai to suffer heavy monsoon rains at this time of year.	钦奈周围的印度东海岸每年这个时候遭受严重的季风暴雨袭击是正常现象。


And, although this is the most severe precipitation to hit the region since 1911, the flooding was also the result of human error: the irresponsible and unplanned urbanization that has transformed India in recent decades.	尽管这是1911年以来该地区最为严重的降水，但洪灾也是人为失误的结果：具体而言就是近几十年来改变印度的不负责任且杂乱无章的城市化。


In virtually every affected area, the flooding can be linked to ill-planned construction, which has taken place without regard to hydrology or Chennai’s natural ecosystems.	几乎所有受影响地区的洪灾都能与规化不周的建设扯上关系，这些建设丝毫没有考虑到钦奈的自然生态系统和水文状况。


Norms set by the Environment Department of Tamil Nadu have largely been ignored, because politicians make common cause with builders in the name of development.	泰米尔纳德邦环境部制定的规范在很大程度上被人们忽视，因为政界人士以发展为名与建设者有着共同的目标。


As a result, airports and bus terminals have been built on floodplains; warehouses and factories on wetlands and marshlands; and housing projects on former lakes.	结果是在河漫滩上修建机场和巴士总站； 在湿地和沼泽地上修建仓库和工厂；


Drainage courses and catchments have been fair game for developers.	在曾经的湖底开发住宅项目。 排水道和集水区成了开发商抨击的对象。


Bypass roads and expressways have sprouted up without regard for data on water flow in the city.	支线公路和高速路如雨后春笋般涌出，丝毫没有考虑到城市的水流状况。


The result has been rapid degradation of water bodies.	结果造成水体快速退化。


Because construction has occurred with scant regard for the provision of adequate waste disposal and sewage systems, the city’s rivers and canals have become garbage dumps, so choked that they can no longer serve as effective conduits to channel rainwater to the sea.	因为建设施工几乎不考虑设置充分的废物处理和污水处理系统，以至于城市的河道及运河逐渐变成垃圾场，堵塞到根本无法有效充当将雨水排入海洋的管道。


Likewise, the destruction of crucial wetlands and inadequate infrastructure to contain flooding means that rainwater runoff has nowhere to go.	同样，关键湿地的破坏和蓄洪基础设施不足意味着没有合适的地点能接受雨水径流的排放。


The same phenomena can be found in dozens of Indian cities.	数十座印度城市同样存在这种现象。


Urbanization is inevitable: an economy of 1.2 billion people cannot employ two-thirds of them in agriculture and hope to grow; rural people will inevitably move to cities to seek work and better lives.	城市化进程不可避免：拥有12亿人的经济体不可能让三分之二的人留在农村还期望增长； 农村居民将不可避免地转移到城市寻找工作和更好的生活。


India’s urban population has risen from 10% at independence, less than seven decades ago, to almost 40% today.	印度的城市人口已经从70年前独立时的10%增长到今天近40%的份额。


It will not be long before a majority of Indians live in cities.	不久以后大多数印度人将在城市中生活。


But those cities cannot all grow the same way as Chennai has.	但那些城市的增长方式不能都和钦奈一样。


Many Indian cities have a higher population density than Chennai, and a similar catastrophe in Kochi or Thiruvananthapuram could lead to much higher casualties.	很多印度城市的人口密度都高于钦奈，科钦或特里凡得琅发生类似的灾难可能会导致更高的伤亡。


We need to rethink our city drainage systems, rework our disaster-management institutions, and ensure that monsoon rainwater can drain out of our cities in the shortest possible time.	我们需要重新思考城市的排水系统、改造灾难管理机构，并确保季风雨水可以在最短的时间内从城市里排出。


The Chennai tragedy is a wake-up call to India.	钦奈悲剧为印度敲响了警钟。


The disaster could have been avoided if strict measures had been taken to preserve water bodies and respect environmental imperatives.	如果采取严格措施保护水体和尊重环境，这场灾难本来是 可以避免的。


If we get our priorities right, we will heed the lessons of this horror and create urban space only in environmentally sustainable ways.	如果我们认识到事情的轻重缓急，就会从这次令人毛骨悚然的水灾中吸取教训，以环境上可持续的方式实现城市化。


If we see Chennai as a one-off event, an “act of God” rather than an error of Man, further disasters will be unavoidable.	如果只把钦奈水灾看作一次性的偶发事件，将其归咎于“天灾”而非人祸，那么进一步的灾害将是不可避免的。


In line with the Modi government’s slogan “Make in India,” the country is planning to build a hundred “smart cities” to bring hi-tech growth to urban centers.	在莫迪政府“印度制造”的口号下，国家正筹划建设一百座“智慧城市”，在市中心吸引高科技增长。


But India’s cities must be smart in a low-tech sense, too.	但印度城市必须在低技术领域也实现智能化。


The lesson of Chennai is that we cannot let more construction, urbanization, and manufacturing erode our natural resilience to familiar monsoon weather events.	钦奈的教训是我们不能继续听任更多建筑工程、城市化和制造业侵蚀我们对熟悉的季风气候事件的自然抵抗力。


“Make in India” must not become the unmaking of India.	绝不能让“印度制造”毁灭印度。


Chernobyl’s Myths and Misconceptions	有关切尔诺贝利事故的谎言和误解


The twentieth anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear accident of April 26, 1986 is prompting a new wave of alarmist claims about its impact on human health and the environment.	1986年4月26日切尔诺贝利核电站事故二十周年正在引发新的一波有关其对人类健康和环境影响的危言耸听浪潮。


As has become a ritual on such commemorative occasions, the death toll is tallied in the hundreds of thousands, and fresh reports are made of elevated rates of cancer, birth defects, and overall mortality.	此类纪念性场合已经成为例行公事，也就是几十万人死亡，对癌症发病率上升、先天缺陷以及总体死亡率都有不断最新的报道。


This picture is both badly distorted – and harmful to the victims of the Chernobyl accident.	对于切尔诺贝利事故的受害者而言，这一情形不仅被严重扭曲、而且有害。


All reputable scientific studies conducted so far have concluded that the impact of radiation has been less damaging than was feared.	目前为止所进行的所有具有声望的科学研究都得出结论说，核辐射的影响要比担忧的要轻。


A few dozen emergency workers who battled the fire at the reactor succumbed to acute radiation sickness.	几十个扑灭反应堆大火的紧急灭火工人死于急性放射性疾病。


Studies are still under way into elevated rates of cancer and cardiovascular disease among the “liquidators” who worked at the reactor site in the months following the accident.	对癌症发病率以及事故发生后的几个月内在核反应堆工作的“清除人员”心血管疾病的上升的研究仍然在进行之中。


And some 5,000 cases of thyroid cancer, attributed to radioactive iodine absorbed through consumption of milk in the weeks immediately following the accident, have been detected among those who were children at the time.	而且，还发现了由于在事故发生后紧接着的几个星期内通过饮用牛奶而吸收的放射性碘导致的大约5000个甲状腺癌症病例，他们当时还都是儿童。


There has been real suffering, particularly among the 330,000 people who were relocated after the accident.	的确有一些痛苦不堪的事情，特别是那些事故发生后3百30万被迁移的人们。


About that there is no doubt.	对此毫无疑问。


But, for the five million people living in affected regions who are designated as Chernobyl “victims,” radiation has had no discernable impact on physical health.	但是，对于5百万居住在受到影响的地区、并被指定为切尔诺贝利事故“受害者”的人来说，核放射对于身体健康并没有可以察觉到的影响。


This is because these people were exposed to low radiation doses that in most cases were comparable to natural background levels.	这是因为这些人受到低辐射的数量，在大多数情况下和自然背景水平大体相当。


Two decades of natural decay and remediation measures mean that most territories originally deemed “contaminated” no longer merit that label.	连续二十年的自然腐化和补救措施意味着大多数原先被认为是受到“污染”的地区不再应当贴有这样的标签了。 甲状腺癌病例的98.


Aside from thyroid cancer, which has been successfully treated in 98.5% of cases, scientists have not been able to document any connection between radiation and any physical condition.	5％都得到了成功的治疗。 除此之外，科学家们尚未记录到放射和身体状况的任何联系。


Where a clear impact has been found is mental health.	只有在心理健康方面发现了明显的影响。


Fear of radiation, it seems, poses a far more potent health threat than does radiation itself.	看起来，对放射的恐惧对健康的威胁要比放射本身大很多。


Symptoms of stress are rampant, and many residents of affected areas firmly believe themselves to be condemned by radiation to ill health and early death.	到处都有压力的症状，而且受到影响的地区的许多居民都坚信他们由于核放射而会生病并早死。


In part, this is because the initial Soviet response was secretive: Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader at the time, addressed the issue on television only weeks later, on May 14, 1986.	造成这一现象的部分原因是，苏联对此的最初反应是诡秘的。 当时的苏联领导人戈尔巴乔夫在1986年5月14日，也就是事故发生几周后才对此发表电视讲话。


Myths and misconceptions have taken root, and these have outlasted subsequent efforts to provide reliable information.	谎言和误解已经根深蒂固，而且超过了随后提供可靠信息的努力。


Combined with sweeping government benefit policies that classify millions of people living in Chernobyl-affected areas as invalids, such myths encouraged fatalistic and passive behaviors and created a “culture of dependency” among affected communities.	政府大幅度提供福利政策给那些被规划为残疾人的生活在受到切尔诺贝利影响地区的数百万人，这些谎言鼓励了宿命主义和悲观行为，并且在受到影响的社区中产生了“依附文化”。


The United Nations Chernobyl Forum, a consortium of eight UN agencies and representatives of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, reinforced these findings.	由八个联合国机构和白俄罗斯、俄罗斯以及乌克兰组成的联合机构联合国切尔诺贝利论坛加强了这些结论。


Chernobyl Forum was created to address the prevailing confusion concerning the impact of the accident, both among the public and government officials, by declaring a clear verdict on issues where a scientific consensus could be found.	切尔诺贝利论坛的成立就是为了通过在科学一致意见可以形成的领域作出明确的结论而解决在公众和政府官员之中有关事故影响的疑惑。 论坛在这一方面获得了成功。


The Forum succeeded in this effort, and a fresh and reassuring message on the impact of radiation was made public in September.	9月份则发表了一份有关辐射影响的全新和令人安慰的报告。 通过以下联接可以找到这份报告的通俗易懂的摘要：http://www.


[An easily digestible summary is available at http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Chernobyl/chernobyl.pdf.]	org/publications/booklets/chernobyl/chernobyl. pdf。


The Chernobyl Forum findings should have brought relief, for they show that the specter haunting the region is not invincible radiation, but conquerable poverty.	切尔诺贝利论坛的结论应当带给人们宽慰，因为它们表明侵袭该地区的幽灵并非是不可战胜的辐射，而是可以战胜的贫穷。


What the region needs are policies aimed at generating new livelihoods rather than reinforcing dependency; public-health campaigns that address the lifestyle issues (smoking and drinking) that undermine health across the former Soviet Union; and community development initiatives that promote self-reliance and a return to normalcy.	该地区所需要的是目的在于创造新的谋生手段、而并非加重依赖程度的政策、解决破坏整个前苏联健康的生活方式问题（吸烟和饮酒）的公共医疗运动以及促进自力更生并且返回正常生活的社区发展规划。


But the reception given to the Chernobyl Forum’s message has been surprisingly mixed.	但是���对切尔诺贝利论坛带来的信息的反应确实令人惊讶地毁誉参半。


Some officials have reverted to alarmist language on the number of fatalities attributed to Chernobyl.	某些官员又重新回到有关由于切尔诺贝利所引起的死亡数目的耸人听闻的语言。


Some NGO’s and Chernobyl charities have responded with disbelief, citing as evidence the general population’s admittedly poor health.	某些非政府组织以及切尔诺贝利慈善组织对此表示难以相信，他们引用公开承认的普通民众的健康问题作为证据。


Opponents of nuclear power have suggested that self-interest has compromised the Chernobyl Forum’s integrity.	核电的反对者说私利破坏了切尔诺贝利论坛的诚信。


Set against the impressive body of science underpinning the Chernobyl Forum, such responses reflect the tenacity not only of myths and misconceptions, but also of vested interests.	构成切尔诺贝利论坛的科学依据众多，因此，这些反应反映的不仅是谎言和误解挥之不去，而且是既得利益。


The new view on Chernobyl threatens the existence of charities – such as those offering health “respites” abroad for children – that depend for their fund-raising on graphic footage of deformed babies.	有关切尔诺贝利的新的观点威胁到慈善组织的生存。 某些外国的慈善组织为儿童提供医疗“缓解”，它们的筹款依靠那些的有关先天缺陷儿童活灵活现的电视画面。


The new understanding also deprives the region’s officials of a routine way to seek international sympathy, even if the repetition of such appeals after two decades yields little financial aid.	这一全新的理解同时还剥夺了该地区官员们例常的寻求国际同情的手段，即使在二十年后重复这些呼吁并不能带来什么财政援助。


By misstating the problems, these approaches threaten to divert scarce resources into the wrong remedies.	这些手段通过错误地表述问题而威胁到把稀有的资源投入到错误的救济上。


The twentieth anniversary of the Chernobyl accident is an ideal occasion for all actors to do some honest soul-searching.	切尔诺贝利事故的二十周年纪念日对于所有相关者而言都是一个理想的作某些诚实的扪心自问的机会。


Governments are right to worry about the fate of Chernobyl-affected territories, but the way forward will require fresh thinking and bold decisions, particularly a shift in priorities from paying paltry benefits to millions to targeted spending that helps to promote jobs and economic growth.	各国政府担忧受到切尔诺贝利影响地区的命运是正确的，但是，前进的方向要求有新鲜的思考以及大胆的决定，特别是把重点从向数以百万计的人发放微不足道的的福利转向有针对性的拨款来帮助促进就业和经济发展。


Similarly, charities are right to worry about the population’s health, but they should focus on promoting healthy lifestyles in affected communities rather than whisking children abroad as if their homes were poisonous.	同样地，慈善机构担忧人口的健康是有道理的，但是它们应当集中精力在受到影响的社区内促进健康的生活方式，而不是把儿童们送到国外，好像他们的家园是有毒的那样。


All parties are right to worry about the affected populations, but, more than any sophisticated diagnostic equipment, what is needed is credible information, presented in a digestible format, to counter Chernobyl’s destructive legacy of fear.	各方担忧受到影响的人口是有道理的，但是，比任何先进的诊断设备更为重要的是以通俗易懂的方式用令人信服的信息对抗切尔诺贝利事故破坏性的恐惧遗产。


The children of Chernobyl are all grown up; their interests, and those of their own children, are best served not by continually evoking the nightmare of radiation, but by giving them the tools and authority they need to rebuild their own communities.	切尔诺贝利的儿童们都已经长大； 符合他们的利益、以及他们自己的孩子们的利益的方式并不是没完没了地唤起辐射的恶梦，而是交给他们重建自身社区所需要的工具和权力。


Revisiting the Iraq War	再访伊拉克战争


NEW YORK – Seven years, 12 volumes of evidence, findings, and conclusions, and one executive summary later, the Report of the Iraq Inquiry, more commonly referred to as the Chilcot Report (after its chairman, Sir John Chilcot), is available for one and all to read.	纽约—在经历了七年时间，12卷证据、发现和推论，以及一份执行摘要后，《伊拉克调查报告》——更普通的名称是《奇尔科特报告》（Chilcot Report，以其主席约翰·奇尔科特的名字命名）——终于向所有人开放了。


Few people will get through all of it; the executive summary alone (well over 100 pages) is so long that it calls for its own executive summary.	很少有人会从头到尾通读它； 光是执行摘要（大大超过100页）就长到应该对它也总结一份执行摘要了。


But it would be a shame if the Report were not widely read and, more important, studied, because it contains some useful insights into how diplomacy operates, how policy is made, and how decisions are taken.	但如果该报告不被广泛阅读——以及更重要的，不被广泛研究——将是一件巨大的憾事，因为它包含了一些关于外交如何操作、政策如何制定、决策如何做出的有用洞见。


It also reminds us of the centrality of the decision to invade Iraq in 2003, and of the aftermath, for understanding today’s Middle East.	它还让我们了解2003年入侵伊拉克的决定及其后果为何是理解当今中东的核心。


A central theme of the Report is that the Iraq War did not have to happen, and certainly not when it did.	该报告的核心主题之一是伊拉克战争本非非打不可，在开战时显然不是。


The decision to go to war was partly based on faulty intelligence.	开战的决策部分是基于错误的情报。


Iraq constituted at most a gathering threat, not an imminent one.	伊拉克充其量最多只是逐渐积聚的威胁，而绝不是紧迫的威胁。


Alternatives to using military force – above all, strengthening Turkey’s and Jordan’s lackluster enforcement of and support for the UN sanctions designed to pressure Saddam Hussein – were barely explored.	除了动武以外，其他办法——主要是强化土耳其和约旦对联合国向为向萨达姆·侯赛因施压而采取的制裁执行不力的情况——基本上都没有进行细究。


Diplomacy was rushed.	外交手段被急匆匆一带而过。


Making matters worse was that the war was undertaken without sufficient planning and preparation for what would come after.	更糟糕的是，这场战争是在没有对可能的局面进行充分计划和准备的情况下进行的。


As the Report rightly points out, many in both the US and British governments predicted that chaos could emerge if Saddam’s iron grip were removed.	报告正确地指出，美国和英国政府的许多人预测如果萨达姆的铁腕统治被推翻，伊拉克将出现乱局。


The decisions to disband the Iraqi army and to bar all members of Saddam’s Ba’ath Party (rather than just a few of its leaders) from positions in the successor government were huge mistakes.	遣散伊拉克军队武装、禁止萨达姆的复兴党（Ba’ath Party）的全体成员（而不仅仅是一些领导者）在新政府中担任职位的决定是巨大的错误。


Iraq was not just a war of choice; it was an ill-advised and poorly executed policy.	伊拉克不仅仅是一个战争选择； 它是一项谋划失败、执行不力的政策。


Much of the Report focuses on British calculations and then-Prime Minister Tony Blair’s support for US policy.	报告以很大的篇幅着重讨论了英国的算盘以及时任首相布莱尔对美国政策的支持。


The decision to associate the UK with the United States was a defensible strategic choice for a smaller country that derived much of its influence from the closeness of the bilateral relationship.	让英国配合美国的决定对于一个影响力主要来自双边关系的紧密程度的国家来说是一个情有可原的战略选择。


Where the Blair government got it wrong was in not pressing for more influence over the policy in exchange for its support.	布莱尔征服点的失策之处是没有要求以增加对该政策的影响力作为支持美国的条件。


George W. Bush’s administration might well have rejected such efforts, but the British government could then have exercised the option of distancing itself from a policy that many believed was unlikely to succeed.	小布什政府很可能拒绝这样的要求，但这样英国政府可以选择与这个很多人认为不可能成功的政策保持距离。


Many lessons should be taken from the Iraq War.	可以从伊拉克战争中汲取很多教训。


One is that, because assumptions fundamentally affect what analysts tend to see when they look at intelligence, flawed assumptions can lead to dangerously flawed policies.	其中之一是，当分析师分析情报时，他们的假设从根本上影响了他们所看到的东西，因此，有缺陷的假设可能导致缺陷巨大的政策。


Nearly everyone assumed that Saddam’s non-compliance with United Nations inspectors stemmed from the fact that he was hiding weapons of mass destruction.	几乎所���人都假设萨达姆不配合联合国检查者是因为他藏匿了大规模杀伤性武器这一事实。


In fact, he was hiding the fact he did not have such weapons.	事实上，他隐藏的是他没有这些武器这一事实。


Likewise, before they started the war, many policymakers believed that democracy would emerge quickly once Saddam was gone.	类似地，在开战之前，许多决策者相信，一旦萨达姆倒台，民主很快就会出现。


Ensuring that such fundamental and consequential assumptions are tested by “red teams” – those not supporting the associated policy – should be standard operating procedure.	确保这些重要的基本假设接受“红队”——即不支持相关政策的人——的检验应该成为标准操作流程。


There is also the reality that removing governments, as difficult as that can be, is not nearly as difficult as creating the security that a new government needs to consolidate its authority and earn legitimacy in the eyes of the public.	另外一个现实是，推翻政府尽管困难，却比为型政府营造安全容易得多。 新政府需要这一安全在众目睽睽之下巩固它的权威和赢得合法性。


Creating anything like a democracy in a society lacking many of its most basic prerequisites is a task of decades, not months.	在缺乏许多最基本的前提条件的社会创造像民主这样的东西是一个需要耗时几十年而不是几个月的任务。


The Report said little about the legacy of the Iraq War, but it is important to consider.	报告对伊拉克战争的遗产几乎只字未提，但考虑这个问题很重要。


First and foremost, the war disrupted the regional balance of power.	首先，伊拉克战争搅乱了地区实力平衡。


No longer in a position to distract and balance Iran, Iraq instead came under Iranian influence.	伊拉克不再能够牵制和平衡伊朗，反而被伊朗的影响力所笼罩。


Iran was free not just to develop a meaningful nuclear program, but also to intervene directly and via proxies in several countries.	伊朗不但可以自由地发展有意义的核计划，还通过代理直接干预多个国家。


Sectarian fighting poisoned relations between Sunnis and Shia throughout the region.	宗派斗争毒害了整个地区的逊尼派和什叶派关系。


The alienation felt by soldiers and officers of Saddam’s disbanded army fueled Sunni insurgency and, ultimately, led to the rise of the so-called Islamic State.	被遣散的萨达姆军队官兵离心离德，这助长了逊尼派叛乱，并最终导致所谓的伊斯兰国的崛起。


The war had a profound effect not just on Iraq and the Middle East, but also on the UK and the US.	伊拉克战争不但对伊拉克和中东造成了深远的影响，对英国和美国也是如此。


The British parliamentary vote in 2013 against participation in any military effort to penalize Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for defying explicit warnings not to use chemical weapons in his country’s civil war was surely related to the view that military intervention in Iraq had been a mistake.	英国议会在2013年投票反对参与任何因其公然罔闻不要在内战中使用化学武器的警告而惩罚叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的军事行动，这显然与伊拉克的军事干预是一场失败的观点有关。


It is also possible that some of the mistrust of elites that led a majority of voters to support “Brexit” stemmed from the Iraq War experience.	导致大部分选民支持“英国退出”的对精英阶层的不信任可能也有一些源自伊拉克战争的经验。


The Iraq War and its aftermath similarly affected the thinking of US President Barack Obama’s administration, which had little appetite for new military ventures in the Middle East at a time when many Americans were suffering from “intervention fatigue.”	类似地，伊拉克战争及其后果也影响到美国总统奥巴马政府的思维，当众多美国人出现“干预疲劳”时，奥巴马政府几乎没有兴趣在中东进行新的军事冒险。


The danger, of course, is that lessons can be overlearned.	当然，危险在于教训可能被过度汲取。


The lesson of the Iraq War should not be that all armed interventions in the Middle East or elsewhere are to be avoided, but rather that they must only be undertaken when they are the best available strategy and when the results are likely to justify the costs.	伊拉克战争的教训绝不是应该避免一切中东和其他地区的武装干预，而是武装干预必须只在它们是最佳可行战略并且结果可能证明值得为之付出代价的情况下才能进行。


Libya was a recent intervention that violated this principle; Syria has been even more costly, but in its case for what was not done.	利比亚是违反这一原则的最近的干预例子； 叙利亚的干预代价更大，代价来自不作为。


The Iraq War was costly enough without people learning the wrong lessons from it.	伊拉克战争的代价足够沉重，人们却没有从中汲取错误教训。


That would be the ultimate irony – and only add to the tragedy.	这才是最大的讽刺之处——也让这个悲剧更加惨痛。


Examples include the oil and gas sector, the health sector, and the humanitarian sector, including aid agencies and United Nations peacekeepers.	这样的例子包括石油和天然气行业、卫生部门和人道主义部门，包括���助机构和联合国维和部队。


The Right Food Fight	正确饮食的斗争


DRESDEN – To what extent should governments regulate or tax addictive behavior?	德累斯顿——政府对成瘾行为的监管或课税应该做到什么程度？


This question has long framed public debate about alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and other goods and services in many countries worldwide.	这个问题一直是许多国家有关酒精、烟草、赌博及其他商品服务公开辩论的主要内容。


And now, in the United States – arguably the mother of global consumer culture – the debate has turned toward the fight against the epidemic of childhood obesity.	现在，在可以称之为全球消费文化之母的美国——辩论已经转向了防止儿童肥胖症的传播。


It is ironic that in a world where childhood malnutrition plagues many developing countries, childhood obesity has become one of the leading health scourges in advanced economies.	讽刺的是，在这个儿童营养不良困扰着许多发展中国家的世界，儿童肥胖却已成为发达经济体最主要的健康灾难之一。


The World Bank estimates that over a third of all children in Indonesia, for example, suffer from stunted growth, confronting them with the risk of lifetime effects on fitness and cognitive development.	举例来讲，世界银行估计超过三分之一的印尼儿童饱受发育不良之苦，面临着对健康与认知发展造成终身影响的威胁。


Yet, the plight of malnourished children in the developing world does not make obesity in the advanced countries any less of a problem.	但发展中世界儿童营养不良的困境并没有缓解发达国家的肥胖问题。


Indeed, though perhaps not on a par with global warming and looming water shortages, obesity – and especially childhood obesity – nonetheless is on the short list of major public-health challenges facing advanced countries in the twenty-first century, and it is rapidly affecting many emerging-market economies as well.	事实上，虽然或许难与全球变暖及迫在眉睫的水资源匮乏相提并论，但肥胖——尤其是儿童肥胖——仍然是二十一世纪发达国家所面临的重要公共卫生挑战之一，同时也在迅速影响许多新兴市场经济。


Yet solving it poses much more difficult challenges than the kind of successful public-health interventions of the last century, including near-universal vaccination, fluoridation of drinking water, and motor-vehicle safety rules.	但解决这个问题让我们面临比上世纪成功的公共卫生干预政策更为艰巨的挑战，包括普及接种、饮用水加氟和机动车安全规则问题。


The question is whether it is realistic to hope for success unless the government resorts to far more blunt instruments than it currently seems prepared to wield.	问题是除非政府愿意诉诸比现在更直接了当的举措，否则很难讲对于成功的期待是否现实。


Given the huge impact of obesity on health-care costs, life expectancy, and quality of life, it is a topic that merits urgent attention.	鉴于肥胖对于医疗保健费用、预期寿命和生活质量的巨大影响，这是一个迫切值得关注的问题。


The US leads the world in obesity, and is at the cutting edge of the debate.	美国的肥胖问题当属世界之最，因此相关的辩论也最激烈。


Almost everyone agrees that the first line of defense ought to be better consumer education.	几乎所有人都赞同第一道防线应当是加强消费者教育。


First Lady Michelle Obama’s “Let’s Move” educational campaign aspires to eliminate childhood obesity in a generation, though its impact so far remains unclear.	第一夫人米歇尔·奥巴马的“让我们行动起来”的教育活动立志在一代人时间里消除儿童肥胖，但迄今为止这项活动的影响尚不清晰。


Other efforts include appeals by celebrities like the chef Jamie Oliver and attempts to use peer-based learning, such as the Sesame Street-inspired platform Kickin’ Nutrition (full disclosure: the creator is my wife).	其他努力包括以厨师杰米·奥利弗为首的名人呼吁，以及像芝麻街风格平台Kickin’ Nutrition那样的同龄人学习尝试（全面披露：这个节目的创始人是我的妻子）。


Yet, although education is essential to fight obesity, it is far from clear whether it will be enough in a food environment dominated by large corporations with deep pockets and every incentive to cultivate excessive consumption.	然而，尽管教育在与肥胖的斗争中必不可少，但还远没有搞清它在由财力雄厚且有强烈动机鼓励过度消费的大企业主导的食品环境下能否真正解决问题。


Commercial television programs aimed at children are replete with advertising for processed foods of dubious value to human health.	以儿童为对象的商业电视节目充斥着对人体健康价值值得怀疑的加工食品广告。


And, for every celebrity who donates time to fighting obesity, there are a dozen who accept large payments to hawk products, such as ultra-sugary drinks, that are arguably the tobacco of our generation.	而且，尽管有少数名人义务投入时间来反对肥胖，但却有更多名人愿意接受大笔酬劳来兜售高含糖饮料等可以称之为���们这代人烟草的产品。


It is hard for non-profits to compete with the production values embodied in Beyoncé’s Pepsi commercial or Taylor Swift’s Diet Coke commercial.	非盈利机构很难与碧昂丝的百事可乐广告或泰勒·斯威夫特的健怡可乐广告背后所体现的产值相抗衡。


The causes of obesity are complex, and the science of understanding human behavior is embryonic; but it is not hyperbole to call the problem an epidemic.	肥胖的原因非常复杂，而理解人类行为的科学尚处于萌芽时期； 但可以毫不夸张地用普遍来形容这个问题。


According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, roughly 18% of children aged 6-11 in the US are not just overweight, but obese.	据疾病预防控制中心统计，美国6-11岁儿童中约有18%已越过超重阶段出现了肥胖问题。


The risks posed by this epidemic are manifold, but the main one is that childhood obesity begets adult obesity, with significantly increased risks of diabetes and heart disease.	上述流行带来的风险是多方面的，但主要是儿童肥胖导致成人肥胖，进而使患糖尿病和心脏病的风险大幅上升。


Indeed, experts estimate that more than 18% of all adults in the advanced economies are obese.	事实上，专家估计发达经济体超过18%的成年人已经进入肥胖领域。


Even more stunning are estimates that roughly 9% of all Americans – and a similar percentage of adults worldwide – have diabetes.	更令人吃惊的是估计约9%的美国人——以及类似比例的全球成年人患有糖尿病。


Yet politicians push back on Big Food at their peril.	但政治家反对高糖高热食品却只能风险自负。


When the popular former mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, attempted to ban large sugary drinks, public opinion – not to mention the New York State Court of Appeals – rejected the effort, despite support from medical experts.	当人气颇高的前纽约市长布隆伯格试图禁止高含糖饮料时，公众舆论——更不用说纽约州上诉法院——都拒绝了他的提议，尽管他的努力获得了医学专家的支持。


Many commentators, even those sympathetic to Bloomberg’s goal, argued that it was wrong to try to legislate consumer behavior so bluntly.	许多评论家，甚至就连那些同情布隆伯格目标的评论家，都认为不应如此生硬地立法规范消费者行为。


Yet, when one considers other successful efforts to improve public health over the last five decades – for example, smoking bans, seat-belt laws, and speed limits – one finds that legislation typically supplemented education.	但回顾五十年来改善公众健康的其他成功努力——比方说禁止吸烟、安全带立法和车速限制——可以看出立法往往能够很好地补充教育。


A less intrusive approach to influencing food choices might be to institute a retail tax on all processed foods – not just sugary drinks – and an offsetting subsidy on non-processed foods.	影响食物选择不那么具有侵略性的方法或许是对包括含糖饮料在内的所有加工食品收取零售税——和对非加工食品给予补偿性补贴。


In the long run, low-income families (which suffer the most from obesity) would be the greatest beneficiaries.	从长远看，低收入家庭（也是肥胖最严重的受害者）将最大程度地从中受益。


And, in the short term, any income effects could be offset by increased transfers.	而且，在短期内，加大转移支付可以抵消任何收入影响。


Together with the medical researchers David Ludwig and Dariush Mozaffarian, I have proposed an outline of such an approach.	我与医学研究员戴维·路德维格和莫扎法利安共同拟定了上述方案的大致规定。


Obviously, some processed foods are far worse than others.	显然，某些加工食品远比其他更为有害。


A more complex breakdown is possible, and other ideas should of course be vetted and discussed.	可以进行更加复杂的分类，当然也应该对其他想法进行审查和讨论。


But our approach has the important practical advantage of simplicity.	但我们的想法却有简便易行的现实优势。


What must be understood, above all, is that US consumer culture is dominated by a food industry that exploits people’s natural joy in eating, and transforms it (in many cases) into something that is addictive and destructive.	首先，我们必须明白食品行业主导着利用人类对饮食天然喜好的美国消费文化，并（在众多情况下）将其转化为具有成瘾性和破坏性的行为。


Any visitor to the US can readily see the pervasiveness of the problem.	任何到过美国的人都能很容易地看到这个问题的普遍性。


The right place to start to address it is by creating a better balance between education and commercial disinformation.	解决这个问题的正确着眼点是在教育和商业虚假信息间达到更好的平衡。


But food is so addictive, and the environment so skewed toward unhealthy outcomes, that it is time to think about broader government intervention.	但食物如此容易上瘾、而环境又如此容易朝着不健康的方向发展，因此是时候考虑进行更全面的政府干预。


That should certainly include vastly enhanced expenditures on public education; but I suspect that a long-term solution will have to involve more direct regulation, and it is not too soon to start discussing the modalities.	这当然应该包括大幅增加对公共教育的支出； 但我怀疑长期解决方案注定会涉及更多的直接规范，而且现在开始讨论具体形式恰逢其时。


Children’s Champions	儿童先驱


LONDON – The British social reformer, Eglantyne Jebb, once noted that the only international language that the world understands is the cry of a child.	伦敦—英国社会改革家杰布（Eglantyne Jebb）曾经指出，全世界都听得懂的国际语言只有儿童的哭声。


Nearly a century after Jebb founded Save the Children, the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Malala Yousafzai, the 17-year-old campaigner for girls’ education, and child-labor opponent Kailash Satyarthi.	在杰布创立拯救儿童（Save the Children）计划近一个世纪后，2014年诺贝尔和平奖授予了17岁的女孩教育先驱马拉拉·尤沙夫赛（Malala Yousafzai）和童工反对者凯拉什·塞蒂亚尔西（Kailash Satyarthi）。


The Nobel Committee thus recognized a global civil-rights struggle against child trafficking, child labor, child marriages, and discrimination against girls.	诺贝尔委员会通过这种方式承认了与儿童贩卖、童工、童婚和重男轻女的全球公民权利斗争。


Given recent and ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and South Sudan, which have devastated so many young lives, the Nobel committee had good cause to highlight children’s suffering.	目前，叙利亚、伊拉克、加沙和南苏丹冲突仍在进行中，许多年轻人的生活饱受蹂躏，诺贝尔委员会突出儿童所遭受的苦难可谓正逢其时。


Schools, which should have been sanctuaries, have become military targets.	理应成为庇护所的学校成了军事目标。


Thousands of children in Syria and Iraq have been press-ganged into military service.	数千叙利亚和伊拉克儿童被强征入伍。


Despite the efforts of United Nations relief agencies, the carnage this summer has created an additional one million child refugees.	尽管联合国纾困机构做出了努力，但今年夏天的大屠杀仍然添增了一百万儿童难民。


The vulnerability of children was illustrated only too well six months ago, when the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram (whose name means “Western education is a sin”) abducted 276 Nigerian schoolgirls.	儿童的脆弱在六个月前的事件中彰显无遗。 伊斯兰教恐怖组织博科圣地（Boko Haram，意思是“西方教育是一种罪恶”）诱拐劫持了276名尼日利亚女学生。


Even if all of the kidnapped girls are returned safely, as a truce between the group and Nigeria’s government stipulates, there are still 15 million children under the age of 14 worldwide who are forced to work, often in appallingly exploitative environments.	即使所有女生最后都随着该组织与尼日利亚政府达成休战协议而安全归来，全球仍有1,500万14岁以下儿童被迫工作，受尽剥削，并且他们的工作环境常常骇人听闻。


A further ten million school-age girls are married off as child brides each year, while around 32 million girls are denied the right even to an elementary education.	另有每年一千万学龄女孩成为童婚新娘，大约3,200万女孩享受不到接受小学教育的基本权利。


But a worldwide counter-offensive is now underway.	但全球范围的反击已经开始。


Satyarthi’s Global March Against Child Labor has rescued thousands of boys and girls, as young as eight, working as slave laborers in India’s back streets and sweatshops.	塞蒂亚尔西的反对童工全球大游行（Global March Against Child Labor）减少了成千上万的男女童工，他们往往只有八岁，在印度穷街陋巷的血汗工厂中被奴役。


The organization has inspired a worldwide campaign to lift children out of exploitation and into education.	该组织开启了一场全球性的解救被剥削儿童、让他们重获教育的运动。


Meanwhile, Yousafzai – following her defiant response to an assassin’s bullet two years ago – has led the fight to end discrimination against girls.	与此同时，尤沙夫赛领导了结束重男轻女的斗争，这是对两年前射向她的子弹的藐视性回应。


Her impact has been remarkable.	她的影响力引人注目。


Visiting Pakistan immediately after that attack, I saw angry girls cowed into submission by their fear of the Taliban.	她遇袭后我正好访问巴基斯坦，我看到愤怒的女孩在塔利班的压迫下敢怒不敢言。


On a return visit a few weeks ago, I addressed some 2,000 girls about education.	几周之后我回访巴基斯坦，为大约2,000名女孩做了教育问题演讲。


Inspired by Yousafzai, they were far from quiescent; on the contrary, they were vocal in their demands for the same rights that boys enjoy.	在尤沙夫赛的激发下，她们不再沉默； 相反，她们开始发出声音，要求获得与男孩一样的权利。


Hundreds of local child-liberation groups, some in the least promising of places, have emerged to fight for children’s civil rights.	数以百计的地方儿童解放组织——其中不少位于最偏远顽固的地区——开始为儿童的公民权利斗争。


These include the Freed Kamlari Development Forum (which combats girls’ slavery in Nepal); the Upper Manya Krobo Rights of the Child Club; and the Yellow movement, which campaigns for youth rights in Ethiopia.	这些组织包括自由卡姆拉里发展论坛（Freed Kamlari Development Forum，反女童奴的尼泊尔组织）、上曼雅克罗伯儿童权利俱乐部（Upper Manya Krobo Rights of Child Club）、黄色运动（Yellow Movement，埃塞俄比亚年轻人权利运动）等。


These young activists may not yet be trending on Twitter or Facebook, or even be household names in their own countries, but support for their cause is growing fast.	这些年轻活动家也许尚未在Twitter或Facebook上热门起来，甚至在自己的国家中也没有什么名气，但对他们的事业的支持正在快速扩大。


Consider the campaign for child-marriage-free zones, which began with schoolgirls in 20 areas of Bangladesh uniting to fight against child marriage.	以无童婚区运动为例，该运动的源于孟加拉国20个地区的女学生联合起来抵抗童婚。


The movement now operates in Pakistan, India, and Africa.	如今，该运动在巴基斯坦、印度和非洲展开活动。


The success of these groups, led by Plan International, has forced governments to toughen laws against child marriage, and – as in Pakistan’s Sindh province – beef up enforcement and policing.	在国际儿童计划组织（Plan International）的领导下这些团体迫使政府收紧反童婚法律，在巴基斯坦的信德省等地还强化了执法和整顿。


Yousafzai and Satyarthi would undoubtedly point to thousands of others like them who are protesting against child marriage, labor, and trafficking.	尤沙夫赛和塞蒂亚尔西毫无疑问代表着成千上万和她们一样与童婚、童工、儿童贩卖作斗争的同志。


Indeed, for the past two years, the Youth Courage Awards have recognized campaigners – role models for a new generation – who have transformed the prospects for children in their own countries.	事实上，在过去连年中，青年勇气奖（Youth Courage Awards）让人们认识了众多致力于改变各自国家儿童前景的运动家，他们是新一代人的榜样。


They include: India’s Ashwini, a visually impaired champion for disabled children; Attal, who created a girls school in his family kitchen in Afghanistan; Shweta who grew up in a South Asian brothel and created a support group for trafficked and abused girls; and Salyne, whose organization, Teach For Lebanon, is helping to educate many of the country’s half-million Syrian and Palestinian refugees.	这些人包括：为残疾儿童奔波的视障印度人阿什维尼（Ashwini）、在自家厨房创办女校的阿富汗人阿塔尔（Attal）、在南亚妓院中长大、成立援助被贩卖和被虐待女孩团体的什维塔（Shweta）、协助教育五十万叙利亚和巴勒斯坦难民中的大量儿童的为黎巴嫩教书（Teach For Lebanon）组织创始人萨利恩（Salyne）。


One Youth Courage award winner, Razia, who at the age of nine was forced to stitch footballs when she should have been in school, started her civil-rights work after Satyarthi rescued her.	青年勇气奖获得者拉齐亚（Razia）在九岁应该上学的年纪被迫从事缝制足球的工作，在获得塞蒂亚尔西的拯救后，她开始从事公民权利工作。


She is now leading the campaign in India for the right to education.	如今，她领导着印度教育权利运动。


The campaign against child exploitation and for education has become global.	反儿童剥削运动和儿童教育运动正在成为全球趋势。


The organization A World at School is now circulating the biggest-ever petition in support of the Millennium Development Goal of universal education.	学校世界（A World of School）组织正在募集史上最大规模请愿以支持有教无类的千年发展目标。


The sad fact is that children are doing more than adults to fight for their own rights.	悲哀的事实是儿童在为自己争取权利方面比成年人做得更多。


Nonetheless, the child-liberation movement that Satyarthi, Yousafzai, and others have helped to mobilize is growing by the day, and new, courageous voices are speaking out against injustices that cannot be allowed to persist for another generation.	尽管如此，塞蒂亚尔西、尤沙夫赛和其他人所动员起来的儿童解放运动正在日益蓬勃发展，充满勇气的新声音直指绝不能允许在子孙后代继续存在的不公。


Children of Frenchmen	法国的孩子们


One puzzling and often overlooked feature of the France that elected Nicolas Sarkozy as its new president, and that is now poised to give his political allies a powerful parliamentary mandate, is its mix of private optimism and public pessimism.	在法国人选举萨科奇作为他们的新总统、现在又让他的政治伙伴在议会取得领导地位的过程中，有一个令人费解的特点通常会被大家忽视，即个人乐观主义和公众悲观主义相互融合。


Consider this: France has the highest fertility rate in the European Union (just under two children per woman), even ahead of booming Ireland.	考虑一下这种情况。 法国有着欧盟中最高的人口出生率（每个妇女有差不多两个孩子），甚至比人口激增的爱尔兰还要高。


Of course, that rate alone is not enough to sustain France’s current population, but it’s far stronger than its European neighbors and almost equal to that of the US.	当然，仅靠这个比率并不足以支撑法国目前的人口，但是它远比欧洲邻国高，几乎与美国持平。


Yet, despite this, Eurobarometer polls repeatedly show that the French are the most pessimistic of all Europeans when it comes to their country’s future.	然而尽管如此，欧洲晴雨表民意测验还是一再显示，在国家未来问题上，法国人是全欧洲最悲观的。


How can it be that people who are so negative about their common future as a nation go about confidently building their private futures within their families?	为什么会出现人们在对他们作为一个国家的共同未来如此悲观的同时却又对在他们的家庭内部建立他们自己的未来如此充满信心的情况呢？


Indeed, strained by decades of governmental failure to curb massive unemployment, the French are nowadays often perceived as having retired from the political sphere to concentrate on their lives and leisure.	事实上，因为对政府几十年来未能制止居高不下的失业率感到失望，法国人现在通常被认为不再关心政治而只关注他们自己的生活和休闲。


Museums, gardening, clubs of all sorts are blossoming in today’s France.	博物馆、园艺以及各种各样的俱乐部在今天的法国如雨后春笋般冒了出来。


Private associations, it seems, have picked up where political parties and trade unions have left off.	看起来，私人协会已经接过了被政党和工会遗弃的领域。


But if the French have turned their backs on the public sphere, how are we to make sense of the record-high participation in the recent presidential election, when more than 85% of turned out to vote in both rounds?	但是如果说法国人不再关心公共领域，我们又怎么解释在最近的总统选举中创历史记录的高投票率呢？ 在这次的两轮选举中投票率超过了85%。


How do we explain the passion aroused by the campaign and by Sarkozy himself including the massive affirmation he received in the parliamentary election?	我们怎么解释被选举活动和萨科奇本人所燃起的热情，包括他在议会选举中所受到的巨大首肯呢？


Political fervor, it seems, has not vanished in the land of Rousseau and Danton.	看起来政治热情并没有在孕育过卢梭和丹东的国土上消失。


So the truth must lie elsewhere: the French are not hopeless about politics; they are simply waiting for a genuine leader.	所以事实应该是另一种情况。 那就是法国人并没有对政治失去信心，他们只是在等待一个真正的领导人。


As a matter of fact, a case can be made that the French will never come to believe that the state lacks power, globalization or no globalization.	实际上，我们完全可以肯定法国人绝对不会认为他们的国家会失去力量，不管有没有全球化。


The French still expect greater things from their government than from an integrated Europe or the boundless world.	法国人依然对他们的政府比一体化的欧洲或者没有国界的世界更有所期待。


Yes, the French are incorrigible lovers of the welfare state (they are not the only ones).	然而，法国人是福利国家的忠实拥护者（他们不是唯一有这种想法的人）。


And Sarkozy seems to understand this instinctively.	而萨科奇似乎本能地理解这一点。


His agenda appears to aim at domestic liberalization – moving beyond the 35-hour week, ending the special pension regimes accorded to particular professions, increasing incentives to work and gain wealth.	他的日程表似乎直指国内的自由化，从一周工作35小时开始，结束特定行业的特殊养老金体制，增加工作和获得财富的动力。


But it also seeks protection from the dizzying effects of globalization, which probably will mean strong support for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, skepticism toward further trade liberalization and the will to improve European Union’s economic government.	但是它同时也期望在全球化带来的令人眩晕的结果上获得保护，这可能意味着对欧盟共同农业政策强有力的支持，以及对贸易的进一步自由化和强化欧盟经济管理的意愿持反对的态度。


Nevertheless, precisely because they care about the future of their numerous children, the French are much more amenable to some wise reforms than most commentators (and politicians) generally assume.	不过，正因为他们关心他们大量孩子的未来，法国人对于一些聪明的改革方案要比大多数评论家（以及政治家）通常所认为的更经得起考验。


Secondary and higher education are rightly near the top of the agenda list of the new government.	中等和高等教育是新政府最优先要考虑的问题之一。


But so are measures aimed at harnessing the state to efforts to encourage entrepreneurship and boost economic dynamism such as public guaranties for housing and start-ups, and fiscal rebate for investment in small enterprises.	但是他们同时也会采取措施把政府的努力集中在鼓励企业主以及提高经济活力上，比如对于住房和新开张企业的公共担保机制，以及对于小企业投资的财政优惠。


France is also in desperate need of a reality check on the nature of its current cultural diversity.	法国同时也迫切需要认真检视他们目前的文化多元性。


And no one should forget that, despite his campaign rhetoric and his apparent unpopularity with many immigrants, Sarkozy himself is an immigrant’s son who favors bold affirmative action policies.	人们不应该忘记，尽管有他在竞选过程所说的那些话，以及在许多移民中不受欢迎，但是萨科奇本人就是一个移民的儿子，他正是受益于对移民持勇敢地肯定态度的政策。


Besides, the nomination of a woman with a North-African ascent as minister of Justice made that clear from the start.	此外，把一个北非裔后代的女人挑选为司法部长也使事情一开始就显得很明朗。


Most French understand that their public spaces – the labor market, the workplace, housing, and educational institutions – are corroded by discrimination.	大多数法国人认为他们的公共空间，即劳工市场、工作场所、住房以及学校受到了歧视态度的侵蚀。


France’s impoverished suburbs, the notorious banlieues , make the ideal of “fraternité” sound like an insult on top of an injury.	法国贫困的近郊和臭名远扬的郊区使“兄弟友爱”的理想听上去更像是伤害外加羞辱。


There is no greater task for Sarkozy than to open, from the inside, all doors to the offspring of others who, like his father, immigrated to France.	对于萨科奇来说没有比从其内部向那些像他的父亲一样移民来法国的人的后代打开所有的大门更重要的事情了。


Nicolas Sarkozy has not been elected to adapt France to an elusive globalization. His mandate is much more demanding: he must reconcile France’s public interests with its private passions.	所以我们必须清楚萨科奇的当选不是为了让法国去适应令人难以捉摸的全球化，他更为迫切的使命是必须将法国的公共利益与个人的热情调和起来。


Chile and the Third Wall	智利和第三堵墙


SANTIAGO – Chile celebrated 200 years of independence in 2010.	圣地亚哥——2010年是智利独立二百周年庆。


Only 20 of the 198 countries on Earth have reached that age.	全世界的198个国家中，只有20个已经独立了如此之久。


Therefore, it has been, for Chileans, a time of assessment and of asking ourselves a very simple, yet profound, question: have we done things right or wrong?	因此，智利人现在应该审视自己的历史，扪心自问一个简单但意义深远的问题： 我们的所作所为究竟是对是错？


If we compare ourselves to the rest of Latin America, the truth is that we have done things very well, especially in the last 25 years, during which we went from being one of the poorest countries on the continent to having the highest per capita income in the region.	如果与其他拉美国家横向比较，我们的成绩实际是相当不错的，特别是在过去的25年中，我们从南美大陆最贫穷的国家之一一跃成为该区域人均收入最高的国家。


Yet if we compare ourselves to the more exclusive group of developed countries, the truth is that we still have much to learn from them.	但如果与独特的发达国家集团相比，现实情况是需要我们学习的东西仍有很多。


The great goal, the grand mission, the overarching challenge of our generation, the Bicentennial Generation, is just one: for Chile to be the first country in Latin America to be able to say, before the end of this decade, with pride and humility, that it has overcome poverty and become a developed country with real opportunities for material and spiritual advancement for all its children.	智利二百周年庆一代所面临的伟大目标、庄严使命和全局挑战只有一个： 那就是让智利在这个十年结束前成为拉美第一个可以谦卑而不无骄傲地宣称已经战胜贫困、跻身发达国家行列、并能为后代子孙提供物质和精神进步的切实机会的国家。


Of course, this is a dream that has been extraordinarily elusive in our first 200 years of independence.	当然，在我们独立的头二百年中，这样的梦想是非常难以实现的。


So why should now be different?	那为什么现在可以实现呢？


First of all, unlike any time in the past, this goal has become fully attainable, and is, as a result, a moral imperative.	首先，与以往任何时候不同，这一目标完全可以实现，它也因此成为我们责无旁贷的道义职责。


Chile currently has a per capita GDP of $15,000, after adjusting for purchasing power.	按照购买力调整后，智利目前的人均GDP已达15,000美元。


We have set the goal of growing at an average of 6% annually, in order to attain, by 2018, the per capita GDP now enjoyed by European countries such as Portugal and the Czech Republic.	我们已经制定了6%的年均增长目标，这样到2018年，实现目前葡萄牙和捷克共和国等欧洲国家的人均GDP目标是可以期待的。


We are also working on doubling the job-creation rate of recent years, with the aim of adding one million jobs in the period 2010-2014.	我们也正努力提高近几年的就业机会创造率，力争在2010－2014年间增加一百万个就业岗位。


All indicators demonstrate that we are on the right path.	所有指标表明我们努力的方向基本正确。


Despite the devastating effects of the earthquake and tsunami of last February, Chile’s economy is already growing at close to 6%, and we have created nearly 300,000 new jobs in the first nine months of my administration – the highest in our country’s history.	尽管去年2月的地震和海啸造成了严重的破坏，但智利经济已经以近6%的速度成长，而本届政府上任的头九个月中就已经创造了历史最高的近300,000个新增就业岗位。


Secondly, these goals are attainable because the world has changed.	其次，上述目标能够实现是因为世界格局已经发生变化。


The Iron Curtain, which for decades irreconcilably divided the East from the West, is gone.	几十年来一直不可调和地割裂东西方阵营的铁幕已经被打碎。


And globalization and new technologies have torn down the wall that for centuries separated the rich and prosperous countries of the North from the poor and underdeveloped countries of the South.	全球化和新技术也已经使几个世纪来隔离北方富裕繁荣国家和南方欠发达国家的那堵高墙不复存在。


Yet a third wall remains, less visible than the others but just as harmful, if not more so.	但第三堵墙依然存在，虽然不那么显眼但却同样、甚至更为有害。


This wall has been with us always, separating rusting spirits who live in nostalgia, fear the future, and believe that only the past was better, from youthful, creative, and entrepreneurial spirits who fearlessly embrace the future and believe that the best is always yet to come.	这堵墙一直挡在我们中间，将颓废怀旧、恐惧未来、相信只有过去更好的人与年轻、富有创造力和创业精神、无畏地拥抱未来、相信未来更加美好的人分隔开来。