One principle does remain true: central banks should try to keep the economy at near full employment by pushing asset prices up when unemployment threatens to rise.	有一条原则的确还是对的：当失业率威胁上升的时候，央行应该试图通过促进资产价格上升来保持经济基本实现充分就业。


But central banks today are influencing asset prices through a very large number of channels and procedures other than conventional open-market operations: they are trying to affect not just duration discounts but risk, default, and information-driven discounts as well.	但是今日的央行正通过很多渠道和程序（而不是惯常的开放市场运作）来影响资产价格：他们试图施加影响的不仅是固定期限的贴现，也包括风险,拖欠，和信息驱动的贴现。


Nor is it any longer accepted that such actions will be sufficient.	这些行动已经足够—这种想法再也不会被接受。


Fiscal stimulus is needed as well.	我们同样也需要财政刺激。


Non-depression economics eschews fiscal policy, on the grounds that central banks’ tools are powerful enough and their decision-making more effective and technocratic than that by legislatures.	在央行的工具足够有力，而且他们的决策比起立法机构更有效和更专业化的基础上，非萧条经济学对财政政策避而不谈。


But in today’s prevailing conditions, we cannot afford this perspective.	但在今天面对的主要情况下，我们不能接受这样的观点。


Finally, central banks still stand ready to intervene to prevent bank runs.	最后，央行依然准备介入银行防止挤兑。


But the presumption in favor of light financial-sector regulation now has few defenders.	但是现在几乎没有人支持财政部门进行温和的调节了。


The consensus view is rather that of William McChesney Martin, who served as US Federal Reserve Chairman from 1951 to 1970: a good central bank prevents speculative excess by “taking away the punchbowl before the party really gets going.”	大家的一致看法反而是威廉·麦卡切斯尼·马丁的观点��此君在1951年至1970年间担任美国联邦储备系统的主席，他认为好的央行通过“在聚会真正开始前就把潘趣酒的酒碗拿走”来防止过度投机。


Higher Education Misconceived	高等教育的误区


CAMBRIDGE – Ever since economists revealed how much universities contribute to economic growth, politicians have paid close attention to higher education.	坎布里奇——自从经济学家揭示了大学对经济增长的贡献之后，政治家们就开始密切关注高等教育。


In doing so, however, they often misconceive universities’ role in ways that undermine their policies.	但他们这么做却往往误解了高校的作用，从而削弱了政策的效力。


For example, US President Barack Obama has repeatedly stressed the need to increase the percentage of young Americans earning a college degree.	比方说，美国总统奥巴马就曾多次强调必须提升拥有大学学位的美国年轻人的百分比。


This is undoubtedly a worthwhile aim that can contribute to national prosperity and help young people realize the American Dream.	这一目标无疑很有价值，可以在推动国家繁荣的同时帮助年轻人实现美国梦。


Yet economists who have studied the relationship between education and economic growth confirm what common sense suggests: the number of college degrees is not nearly as important as how well students develop cognitive skills, such as critical thinking and problem-solving ability.	但研究教育及经济增长关系的经济学家确认了一种常识性的看法：即大学本科学历远不如培养学生的认知能力、如批判性思维和解决问题的能力那么重要。


Failure to recognize this point can have significant consequences.	认识不到这一点可能带来严重的后果。


As countries embrace mass higher education, the cost of maintaining universities increases dramatically relative to an elite system.	高等教育在各国实现大众化的同时，维持大学正常运转的成本相比精英体系大幅提高。


Given that governments have many other programs to support – and that people resist higher taxes – finding the money to pay for such an effort becomes increasingly difficult.	由于政府要支持很多其他计划——同时民众抵制更高的税收——筹集资金来支付大学教育经费的难度越来越大。


Universities must therefore try to provide a quality education to more students while spending as little money as possible.	因此高校必须在为更多学生提供高质量教育服务的同时尽可能节省费用。


Accomplishing all three objectives – quality, quantity, and cost efficiency – simultaneously is difficult, and the likelihood of compromise is great.	同时实现质量、数量和成本效益这三项目标难度很大，很有可能需要作出妥协的选择。


With graduation rates and government spending easy to calculate, educational quality, which is difficult to measure, is likely to be the objective that slips.	因为毕业率和政府开支很容易计算，难以衡量的教育质量就可能成为被忽略的目标。


No one need know – and thus no one can be held accountable – when graduation rates rise but the hoped-for economic benefits fail to materialize.	没有人需要知道在毕业率上升的同时预期的经济效益却无法实现——因此也没人要为此负责。


A second misconception by policymakers is that the only important benefit from a college education is the opportunity that it gives graduates to find a middle-class job and contribute to economic growth and prosperity.	决策者的另一个误解是毕业生能找到一份中产阶级工作，为经济增长和繁荣做出贡献是大学学历唯一重要的好处。


But, while this contribution is important, it is not the only one that matters.	虽然这方面的贡献非常重要，但却绝非唯一重要的因素。


Apart from finding a first job, college graduates seem to adapt more easily than those with only a high school degree as the economy evolves and labor-market needs change.	除了找到第一份工作，大学毕业生似乎比那些只有高中学历的人更容易适应经济的发展和劳动力市场需求的变化。


They also tend to vote at higher rates, engage in more civic activities, commit fewer crimes, educate their children better, and get sick less frequently by adopting healthier lifestyles.	他们一般投票率更高、更愿意参与公民活动、更倾向于远离犯罪、更好地教育子女、并且因为生活方式更健康而减少患病的几率。


Researchers estimate that these additional benefits are worth even more than the added lifetime income from a college degree.	研究人员测算这些额外的好处甚至要超过大学毕业生终生的收入增加额。


If policymakers overlook them, they run the risk of encouraging quicker, cheaper forms of education that will do far less to serve either students or society.	如果决策者忽略这样的现实，就有可能鼓励更快、更廉价的教育形式，而上述教育形式对学生和社会的贡献都小得多。


These misconceptions are clearly evident in government leaders’ speeches over the past two decades.	这样的误解在过去20年政府领袖的演讲中非常普遍。


As former President Bill Clinton remarked in his State of the Union address in 1994: “[W]e measure every school by one high standard: Are our children learning what they need to know to compete and win in the global economy?”	正如前总统比尔·克林顿在其1994年的国情咨文中所说的那样：“我们用同样的标准去衡量每一所学校：那就是我们的学生是否学到了在全球经济竞争中所需要的知识？


Since then, George W. Bush and Obama have echoed similar sentiments when speaking about their educational-policy goals.	”从那以后乔治·W·布什和奥巴马在谈到教育政策目标时也提到过类似的观点。


The same attitudes are manifest in other countries as well.	同样的看法在其他国家也非常明显。


A telling example is the shift in jurisdiction over British universities since 1992 from the Department of Education and Science to the Department for Education and Employment, and, in 2009, to a new Department for Business, Innovation, and Skills.	英国大学管辖权1992年后就从教育和科学部转移到了教育和就业部，之后又在2009年转移到了新设立的商业、创新和技能部就是生动的例子。


This shrunken conception of the role of higher learning is unprecedented.	对高等教育作用如此狭隘的理解前所未有。


It ignores what were long regarded as the most essential aims of education: strengthening students’ moral character and preparing them to be active, informed citizens.	这种做法忽视了教育最重要的目标：那就是增强学生品德，培养他们承担起积极、开明的公民角色。


In light of this tradition, the recent shift to material objectives comes as something of a surprise.	鉴于这样的传统，近期重大的目标转变的确令人意想不到。


John Maynard Keynes prophesied in the 1920’s that as countries grew wealthier, people’s preoccupation with money and possessions would diminish. Instead, just the opposite has occurred.	约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在20世纪20年代曾预言民众对金钱和财产的关注度会随着国家逐渐变富而减少，但现实情况却是相反的。


Granted, democratic political leaders must be responsive to the people, and money and jobs are clearly on people’s minds.	诚然，民主政治领袖必须响应民众的愿望，金钱和工作显然为民众所关注。


According to a recent survey, among first-year university students in the United States in 2012, 88% cited getting a better job as an important reason for attending college, and 81% listed “being very well off financially” as an “essential” or “very important” goal.	据最近一项调查显示，在2012年美国大学一年级新生中，88%把找到好工作列为上大学的重要理由，还有81%把“经济富裕”列为“最重要”或“非常重要”的目标。


But it is also true that 82.5% of these freshmen sought “to learn more about things that interest me” as an important reason for attending college, and 73% wanted “to gain a general education and appreciation of ideas.”	但现实情况是82. 5%的新生同样把“学习让我感兴趣的知识”列为上大学的重要理由，73%想要“得到综合教育并理解各种想法”。


Among the objectives they considered “essential” or “very important,” 51% mentioned “improving my understanding of other countries and cultures,” 45.6% cited “developing a meaningful philosophy of life,” and substantial fractions listed such goals as “becoming a community leader,” “helping to promote racial understanding,” and “becoming involved in programs to clean up the environment.”	在认为“最重要”或“非常重要”的目标中，51%提到了“增进我对其他国家和文化的理解”，45. 6%提到了“建立有意义的人生哲学”，也有很大部分学生列举了“成为团体领袖”、“促进种族理解”和“参与环境清理计划”等目标。


In the end, surveys suggest that what people want most is not wealth so much as happiness and the satisfaction that comes from a full and meaningful life.	最终，调查结果表明人们最想要的不是财富，而是充实而有意义的生活所带来的美满和幸福。


Money helps, but so do other things, such as close human relationships, acts of kindness, absorbing interests, and the chance to live in a free, ethical, and well-governed democratic society.	金钱固然重要，但同样重要的还有其他因素，如亲密的人际关系、友善的行为、对兴趣的自由发展、以及在自由、道德、治理状况良好的民主社会中生活。


A stagnant economy and lack of opportunity are undoubtedly problems, but so are low voting rates, civic apathy, widespread disregard for ethical standards, and indifference to art, music, literature, and ideas.	经济停滞和机遇缺失无疑会带来问题，但同样带来问题的还有投票率低、公众冷漠、对道德标准的普遍漠视、以及不关注艺术、音乐、文学和思想。


It is the responsibility of educators to help their students live satisfying, responsible lives.	教育工作者有责任帮助学生实现满意、负责任的生活。


However well or badly universities perform this task, their efforts to succeed at it are worth fighting for and deserve their governments’ recognition and encouragement.	抛开大学执行这项任务的好坏不论，他们为成功所付出的努力值得为之奋斗，并且应该得到政府的鼓励和认可。


After all, as Louis Brandeis observed: For good or ill, “our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher.”	归根结底，正如路易斯·布兰代斯所指出的那样：无论好坏，我们的政府是最无处不在的有力的老师。


If our leaders regard education merely as a means to jobs and money, no one should be surprised if young people eventually come to think of it that way, too.	”如果我们的领导人把教育仅仅作为获得工作和金钱的手段，那么年轻人最终也这样认为就没有什么值得大惊小怪的。


Designer Diets?	饮食设计？


Throughout our lives, we are exposed to a complex mixture of food compounds.	在我们的生活中，处处都有食物化合物的复杂综合体。


Intricate biochemical processes extract from food the energy and other useful components that enable us to grow and function.	深奥的生化程序从食物中提取能量以及其它供我们成长生长及活动的有效化合物。


Many compounds, seemingly unimportant in the past, are now recognized as influencing our health.	许多过去被认为并不重要的化合物，现在被确认为对我们健康有影响。


For example, lycopene from cooked tomato sauces may help prevent prostate cancer.	比如，从煮熟的番茄沙司中提取的茄红素（lycopene）对防止前列腺癌大有帮助。


Everyone, indeed, knows that food can have a positive or negative impact on health.	实际上，每个人都知道食物对健康可能有益也可能有害。


Food may never cure any particular disease, but diets rich in fruits and vegetables, cereals and plant-sourced oils offer protection from many cancers, cardiovascular disease, and other illnesses associated with old age.	食物无法治疗某一种疾病，但是大量摄入水果、蔬菜、谷类和植物油能有效防止多种癌症、心血管疾病和其他老年病。


The problem, for scientists and consumers alike, is that the benefits are not the same for everyone.	对科学家和消费者来说，同样的问题是，每个人的受益程度各有区别。


So we need to understand how what we eat interacts with our bodies – or, more specifically, our genes – to affect our health.	所以，我们需要了解，我们的饮食与我们的身体——或者，更确切地说是我们的基因——是如何相互作用并对我们的健康产生影响的。


This is the science of nutrigenomics.	这就是营养基因学。


The long-term aim of nutrigenomics is to define how the whole body responds to food using so called “systems biology.”	营养基因学的长期目标是使用所谓的“系统生物学”来确定身体如何对饮食做出反应。


Every cell in your body (except mature red blood cells) – there are about 50 trillion in an adult – contains copies of your DNA, which are coiled up tightly to form 46 separate bundles called chromosomes.	一个成人体内有50万亿细胞，你身体中的每一个细胞（除了成熟的红血球）都包含着你的DNA数据。 DNA分子紧密地盘旋而上组成了46条染色体。


These chromosomes are stored in the core of the cell (nucleus), and there are 22 matching pairs, one of each pair from each of your biological parents, plus an X-chromosome from your mother and either an X- or Y-chromosome from your father; XX makes you a girl and XY a boy.	这些染色体存储在细胞的中央（细胞核），配成22对染色体。 每对分别来自你的生身父母双方，由你母亲提供一条X染色体，父亲提供一条X或者Y染色体。


DNA stores information that is vital to the growth, repair, replacement, and correct functioning of our cells.	DNA存贮着对我们细胞的成长、修复、新老更替以及更正功能至关重要的信息。


It consists of two strings – formed from phosphate and sugar – along which four unique chemical compounds (DNA bases) are attached.	它由两条由磷酸盐和糖形成的单链组成，带有四个独一无二的化学合成物（DNA碱基）。


There are about three billion bases, and the sequences in which they occur is our genetic code, or human genome.	这样的碱基大约有三十亿个，它们的排列顺序组成了我们的遗传密码，或者说人类基因组。


Within the genetic code, there are 30,000-40,000 highly organized regions called genes.	在遗传密码中，有30,000-40,000个排列高度整齐的区域叫做基因。


Genes are the basic unit of heredity, and, unless you are an identical twin, the combination of genes inherited from your parents is unique to you.	基因是遗传的基本单位，除非你是同卵双生，否则你从父母那里遗传的基因组合是独一无二的。


The genes that you have make up your genotype.	你所拥有的基因组成了你的基因型。


The resulting product, for example eye color, is your phenotype.	而它的产物，诸如眼睛的颜色，就是你的表现型。


Genotyping can be used to determine which genes you have, but it cannot always predict your phenotype.	基因型定型可被用于鉴定你拥有何种基因，但是却不能预测你的表现型。


The inheritance of some characteristics, including eye color, is simple.	鉴定某些特征的遗传，诸如眼睛的颜色，是很容易的。


The majority of phenotypes are, however, the product of complex multi-gene interaction, environment, and lifestyle choices.	然而，大部分表现型是在多种基因相互作用、环境以及生活方式的复杂影响下的选择。


This includes our risk of developing a host of age-related diseases.	这其中也包括我们患上老年疾病的风险性。


Genes code for proteins, the body’s workers, which are not made directly from DNA, because they do not speak the same language.	由于DNA与生命大厦的“工人”——蛋白质性质不同，蛋白质并非直接由DNA产生而来。


Ribonucleic acid (RNA) acts as an interpreter in a process called transcription (the reading of genes).	基因编写着蛋白质的密码。 核糖核酸在转录（读取基因）过程中充当了“翻译者”的角色。


Translation from RNA creates three-dimensional proteins from combinations of 22 essential amino acids – essential only because our bodies are not able to make them, so they must be obtained from our diet instead.	来自RNA的“翻译”从22种必需氨基酸中制造出了三维蛋白质——之所以必需是因为我们的身体无法制造它们，而必须从我们的饮食中摄取。


The proteins that are produced, their quantities, and their characteristics collectively form the proteome, and their activities, in combination or in response to signals from within the body or external to it, form our metabolism.	由此产生的蛋白质的数量和特征共同形成了蛋白组，而它们对身体内部或外部信号发生反应而形成的活动，就是我们的新陈代谢。


Such is the complexity of nutrigenomics that it is no longer possible for nutritional researchers to work alone.	这些就是营养基因学的复杂性，而营养学研究者也再也不会单独工作了。


Expertise in a wide variety of different areas – molecular and cell biology, mathematics and statistics, nutrition and diet, food chemistry, and social science – is fundamental to progress.	来自不同领域的专家意见——分子和细胞生物学、数学和统计学、营养和饮食、食品化学和社会科学——对营养基因学的发展非常重要。


To this end, 22 leading groups have united to create The European Nutrigenomics Organization, or NuGO.	为此，22个尖端团队已经联合组成一个欧洲营养基因学组织（The European Nutrigenomics Organization），即NuGO。


Funded by the European Commission, NuGO gives scientists from organizations that usually compete for funding and the best researchers their first real opportunity to work together.	NuGO由欧洲委员会提供资金，为科学家们提供第一次真正合作的机会。 这些科学家都来自为基金和最优秀研究人员彼此竞争的组织。


Difficulties stemming from professional jargon, organizational structure, and distance are more than offset by the benefits of integrating nutrigenomics facilities and expertise to ensure cooperative use of knowledge and its application in nutritional research.	比起为了保证知识共享及其在营养学研究方面的运用而整合营养基因学设备和人力资源所带来好处，专业术语、组织结构以及远程交流的困难要大得多。


Nutrigenomics is not the Holy Grail of nutrition, but neither is it irrelevant to all but the worried-but-wealthy few that will be able to afford the new food products when they arrive.	营养基因学并非营养学的圣杯，但对几乎忧心冲冲但却富有得足以承受新食物（当新食物诞生时）的少数阶层来说，它也并非毫不相关。


Determining the structure of DNA and the sequence of the human genome has revolutionized biology and medicine. It has created new specialties and advanced our understanding of disease.	DNA的结构和人类基因图排列顺序的确定已使生物界和医药界发生革命，产生了新的专业，发展了我们对疾病的认识。


But rarely does this knowledge allow us to control outcomes – prevention rather than cure.	但是，就目前所掌握的知识而言，我们还不能控制结果——即不能治疗只能预防。


Indeed, in the twenty-first century, we still cannot describe health except in terms of the absence of disease.	事实上，在二十一世纪，如果不使用疾病术语，我们还是不能对健康进行描述。


Today’s new technologies enable health to be identified in terms of patterns of gene expression, protein production, and metabolic response.	当今的新技术使得我们能够按照基因表现图、蛋白质制造和新陈代谢反应来定义健康。


Applied to nutrition, nutrigenomics will allow us to understand, and perhaps more importantly, to manipulate our individual response to existing foods so as to benefit our health.	将营养基因学应用于营养学，能使我们了解，也许更重要的是，使我们能够控制个体对现有食物的反应，造福我们的健康。


For some people, this will mean expensive genetic testing and designer diets, but for most, it will mean realistic advice based on visibly demonstrable phenotypes – a tendency to gain weight, for example, or an intolerance or allergic response to certain food types.	对一部分人而言，这将意味着昂贵的基因测试和饮食设计，但是对大多数人来说，它意味着根据显而易见的表现型而提出的实际建议——比如，体重加剧的倾向，或者对某个食品种类的过敏现象。


Above all, nutrigenomics holds out the promise of providing the healthy independence that everyone hopes for in later years.	最重要的是，营养基因学提出了每个人在未来几年都希望实现的健康独立性的承诺。


Desperate Central Bankers	绝望的央行行长们


NEW HAVEN – The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks – the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.	纽黑文—夏天的最后一天开启了世界两大主要央行——美联储和日本银行的又一个徒劳的决策季。


The Fed did nothing, which is precisely the problem.	美联储什么都没做，而这正是问题所在。


And the alchemists at the BOJ unveiled yet another feeble unconventional policy gambit.	而日本银行的炼金术师们在无效的非常规政策上越走越远。


Both the Fed and the BOJ are pursuing strategies that are woefully disconnected from the economies they have been entrusted to manage.	美联储和日本银行所追求的策略都大大偏离了人们信任它们去管理的经济。


Moreover, their latest actions reinforce a deepening commitment to an increasingly insidious transmission mechanism between monetary policy, financial markets, and asset-dependent economies.	此外，它们的最新动作更深一步地坐实了货币政策、金融市场和依赖资产的经济之间的日益狡猾的传递机制。


This approach led to the meltdown of 2008-2009, and it could well sow the seeds of another crisis in the years ahead.	该方针导致了2008—2009年的大崩盘，很有可能也为几年后的又一场危机奠定了基础。


Lost in the debate over the efficacy of the new and powerful tools that central bankers have added to their arsenal is the harsh reality of anemic economic growth.	十年来，央行行长的武器库里添加了不少新的强大工具，关于这些工具的效果的争论遮掩了经济增长萎靡的严峻现实。


Japan is an obvious case in point.	日本是明显的例子。


Stuck in what has been essentially a 1% growth trajectory for the last quarter-century, its economy has failed to respond to repeated efforts at extraordinary monetary stimulus.	其经济在过去四分之一个世纪中增长率一直处于1%的增长轨迹中，对一再实施的反常货币政策都没有什么反应。


Whatever the acronym – first, ZIRP (the zero interest-rate policy of the late 1990s), then QQE (the qualitative and quantitative easing launched by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in 2013), and now NIRP (the recent move to a negative interest-rate policy) – the BOJ has over-promised and under-delivered.	不管采取什么缩写组合——首先是ZIRP（20世界90年代末的零政策利率），然后是QQE（2013年日本银行行长黑田东彦实施的定性和量化宽松），现在是NIRP（最新采取的负利率政策）——日本银行总是雷声大雨点小。 事实上，自2012年底安倍晋三当选日本首相以来，日本真实GDP年增长下滑至0.


In fact, with Japan’s real annual GDP growth slipping to 0.6% since Shinzo Abe was elected Prime Minister in late 2012 – one-third slower than the sluggish 0.9% average annual rate over the preceding 22 lost years (1991 to 2012) – the so-called maximum stimulus of “Abenomics” has been an abject failure.	6%——比此前失去的22年（1991—2012年）0. 9%的平均年增长率还要低三分之一——所谓的“安倍经济学”的最大规模刺激已经惨败。


The Fed hasn’t fared much better.	美联储也好不到哪里去。


Real GDP growth in the US has averaged only 2.1% in the 28 quarters since the Great Recession ended in the third quarter of 2009 – barely half the 4% average pace in comparable periods of earlier upturns.	自2009年第三季度大衰退结束以来的28个季度中，美国真实GDP增长只有2. 1%——而此前可比的经济上升期平均增长率高达4%。


As in Japan, America’s subpar recovery has been largely unresponsive to the Fed’s aggressive strain of unconventional stimulus – zero interest rates, three doses of balance-sheet expansion (QE1, QE2, and QE3), and a yield curve twist operation that seems to be the antecedent of the BOJ’s latest move.	和日本一样，萎靡不振的美国经济复苏基本上对美联储的大规模非常规刺激无动于衷——包括零利率，三次资产负债表扩张（QE1、QE2、QE3），以及可以作为日本银行最新动作的先河的收益率曲线扭曲操作。


(The BOJ has just announced that it is targeting zero interest rates for ten-year Japanese government bonds.)	（日本银行刚刚宣布准备让十年期日本政府债券利率降低到零。 ）


Notwithstanding the persistent growth shortfall, central bankers remain steadfast that their approach is working, by delivering what they call “mandate-compliant” outcomes.	尽管经济增长萎靡始终存在，但央行行长们仍然坚定地认为他们的方针正在起作用，因为这些方针带来了他们所谓的“符合使命”（mandate-compliant）结果。


The Fed points to the sharp reduction of the US unemployment rate – from 10% in October 2009 to 4.9% today – as prima facie evidence of an economy that is nearing one of the targets of the Fed’s so-called dual mandate.	美联储说美国失业率的大幅下降——从2009年10月的10%降低到如今的4. 9%——就是经济正在靠近美联储所谓的双重使命的目标之一的表面证据。


But when seemingly solid employment growth is juxtaposed against weak output, the story unravels, revealing a major productivity slowdown that raises serious questions about America’s long-term growth potential and an eventual buildup of cost and inflationary pressures.	但与看似稳固的就业增长并存的是产出萎靡，这一现象揭示了生存率大幅放缓，也对美国长期增长潜力以及成本和通胀压力的最终积聚在成了严重质疑。


The Fed can’t be faulted for trying, argue the counter-factualists who insist that only unconventional monetary policies stood between the Great Recession and another Great Depression.	坚持全靠非常规货币工具才能阻挡大衰退演变为又一场大萧条的反现实者认为美联储不可谓不努力。


That, however, is more an assertion than a verifiable conclusion.	但是，这与其说是可论证的结论，不如说是一个主张。


While policy traction has been notably absent in the real economies of both Japan and the US, asset markets are a different story.	政策牵引力对于日本和美国的实体经济基本上没有什么住的注意的作用，但资产市场完全是另一番景象。


Equities and bonds have soared on the back of monetary policies that have led to rock-bottom interest rates and massive liquidity injections.	货币政策将利率压到最低并大量注入流动性，导致股票和债券暴涨。


The new unconventional monetary policies in both countries are obviously missing the disconnect between asset markets and real economic activity.	两国的新非常规货币政策显然没有关注资产市场和实体经济活动之间的断裂。


This reflects the aftermath of wrenching balance-sheet recessions, in which aggregate demand, artificially propped up by asset-price bubbles, collapsed when the bubbles burst, leading to chronic impairment of overleveraged, asset-dependent consumers (America) and businesses (Japan).	反映了长期资产负债表衰退的后果，其中总需求被资产价格泡沫认为拉高，并在泡沫破裂时崩溃，导致过度负债的资产依赖型消费者（美国）和企业（日本）长期萎靡。


Under such circumstances, the lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising.	在这样的背景下，对零政策利率区间毫无反应并不令人奇怪。


In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s, when central banks were also “pushing on a string.”	事实上，这与20世纪30年代所谓的流动性陷阱惊人地相似，当时央行也是在“推绳子”（pushing on a string）。


What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial in the face of this painful reality check.	尤其令人沮丧的是，央行行长们仍然基本拒绝直面淋漓的现实。


As the BOJ’s latest actions indicate, the penchant for financial engineering remains unabated.	日本银行的最新动作表明，其金融工程嗜好从未戒除。


And as the Fed has shown once again, the ever-elusive normalization of policy interest rates continues to be put off for yet another day.	而美联储再次证明，永远令人难以揣摩的政策利率正常化再一次被推迟了。


Having depleted their traditional arsenal long ago, central bankers remain myopically focused on devising new tools, rather than owning up to the destructive role their old tools played in sparking the crisis.	央行行长们早已用尽了常规武器，仍旧目光短浅地着眼于设计新工具，而不是坦白承认他们的旧工具在引起危机方面所起到的毁灭性作用。


While financial markets love any form of monetary accommodation, there can be no mistaking its dark side.	金融市场喜欢任何形式的货币宽松，但这绝对有其阴暗面。


Asset prices are being manipulated across the board – stocks and bonds, long- and short-duration assets, as well as currencies.	资产价格全面受到操纵——股票和债券，长期和短期资产，以及货币。


As a result, savers are being punished, the cost of capital is repressed, and reckless risk taking is being encouraged in an income-constrained climate.	结果，储蓄者受到惩罚，资本成本被抑制，鲁莽的冒险在收入受制的环境中被鼓励。


This is especially treacherous terrain for economies desperately in need of productivity-enhancing investment.	对于急切地需要生产率强化型投资的经济来说，这尤其危险。


And it is not dissimilar to the environment of asset-based excess that incubated the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.	这与酝酿了2008—2009年全球金融危机的基于资产的过剩的环境没有什么区别。


Moreover, frothy asset markets in an era of extreme monetary accommodation take the pressure off fiscal authorities to act.	此外，在货币极端宽松的时期，有泡沫的资产市场让财政当局不再有行动压力。


Failing to heed one of the most powerful (yes, Keynesian) lessons of the 1930s – that fiscal policy is the only way out of a liquidity trap – could be the greatest tragedy of all.	没有吸取20世纪30年代最有力的教训之一（是的，就是凯恩斯主义）——财政政策是摆脱流动性陷阱的唯一办法——也许是最大的悲剧。


Central bankers desperately want the public to believe that they know what they are doing.	央行行长们绝望地想让公众相信他们知道他们在做什么。


Nothing could be further from the truth.	没有比这更加偏离事实的了。


Deterring Arab Democracy	阿拉伯民主背后的黑手


CAMBRIDGE – The lack of democracy in the Arab world results from an unholy alliance between Western interests and local autocrats, justified by what both sides claim to be the region’s “cultural specificity.”	发自剑桥——阿拉伯世界之所以缺乏民主，其实就是西方利益和当地独裁者结成的邪恶联盟所种下的恶果，而为了自证清白，双方还异口同声地宣称这是该地区的“文化特色”。


In a nutshell, it has been much easier for the West to do business in the post-colonial Middle East with un-democratic regimes, which have found Western support and recognition useful in marginalizing local liberal and democratic forces, even as it paved the way for the rise of Islamist radicalization.	简而言之，在西方看来，在后殖民时代的中东地区与非民主政权打交道显然更加得心应手，而在那些中东执政者眼中，西方的支持和承认则是打击当地自由民主力量的有力武器，即便此举助长了伊斯兰极端主义的冒起也在所不惜。


Sticks as well as carrots have been used – by both sides – to maintain this alliance.	而为了维持这个联盟，双方都用尽了胡萝卜加大棒等十八般手段。


For example, the Western emphasis on reform and democracy in recent years has been used more often than not as a threat, a typical message being: “Help us in Iraq or we will press for democracy and human rights in your own country.”	比如说，西方这些年来对改革和民主的强调简直就是某种威胁，常用的典型口吻如下：“帮我们搞定伊拉克，否则我们就在你家里推广民主人权！


And the Arab reply is equally threatening: “Stop pressing us on the reform issue or we won’t cooperate in the ‘war on terror’!”	”而阿拉伯人这边的回答同样也毫不示弱：“别在我这里搞改革，不然就别想我们支持你的‘反恐战争’！ ”


Two other major issues have sustained the trade-off: Israel and the rise of the Islamist movements.	被双方视为谈判筹码的有两个重要问题：以色列，还有伊斯兰运动的兴起。


The Arab public overwhelmingly regards Israel as an alien and illegitimate entity imposed by force on Palestinian land with Western support. If this perception was channeled democratically and allowed to shape Arab countries’ policies toward Israel, any peace negotiations would be even more complicated than they are now.	当前阿拉伯民众一面倒地将以色列视为一个在西方支持下穷兵黩武，侵占巴勒斯坦领土的外来非法政府，而倘若这样的观点被通过民主的方式表达出来，并左右了阿拉伯国家的对以政策的话，任何和平谈判都将因此变得更加纷繁复杂。


So it is far easier for authoritarian regimes like Egypt and Jordan (and in the future perhaps Syria), where there is no need for parliamentary agreement, to launch negotiations and sign peace agreements with Israel.	由此可见，如果要和以色列启动谈判并签署和平协议的话，和埃及，约旦（或许还有未来的叙利亚）这些专制政权打交道将是一条捷径，因为它们根本都不需要得到议会同意。


Likewise, in Morocco, Tunisia, Mauritania, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain, where various low-level contacts and Israeli representations exist, undemocratic regimes can define whatever relationship with Israel they choose.	同样，在摩洛哥、突尼斯、毛里塔尼亚、卡塔尔，阿曼和巴林这些拥有低级别外交联络人和以色列驻当地代表的非民主政权，重新界定本国和以色列的关系不过是件轻而易举的事而已。


The rise of radical Islamism has been no less obstructive when it comes to Arab democracy.	此外，伊斯兰极端主义的兴起对于阿拉伯民主来说也是一大障碍。


Decades of unholy alliance between Arab autocrats and the West have seen radical Islam emerge as a “salvation” force.	数十年以来，本地独裁者和西方之间的邪恶联盟都将极端伊斯兰视为某种“救命稻草”。


If free and fair elections were to be held in any Arab country, Islamists would come to power. That was the case in Algeria in 1991-92, in Iraq in 2005, and in the West Bank and Gaza in 2006.	因为一旦有任何阿拉伯国家举行了自由和公平选举的话，极端主义者都会接掌政权，正如1991~1992年的阿尔及利亚，2005年的伊拉克，以及2006年的约旦河西岸和加沙地区。


Other countries, such as Jordan, Morocco, Kuwait, Yemen, and Bahrain, have created more limited space for democracy. There, too, Islamists have immediately filled it.	而在其他国家，比如约旦、摩洛哥、科威特，也门和巴林，执政者在许多领域都将民主排除在外，而极端主义则迅速乘虚而入。


The West has wasted decades, missing countless chances to establish regimes that could empower Arab liberal and democratic forces.	在建立阿拉伯自由民主势力的政权方面，西方已经浪费了几十年时间，而且错过了无数机会。


The West’s blind support for autocratic Arab rulers has reduced all hope of peaceful change.	西方对阿拉伯独裁者的盲目支持已经令所有和平变革的希望都消磨殆尽。


The democratic process has lost its aura and its thrust, not least because democratization seems to lead to the rise of political movements the West finds unacceptable.	民主程序已经失去了它的威力和感召力，尤其是当民主进程似乎助长了西方所不愿意看到的政治运动之时。


The whole notion of democracy has been eroded and discredited, with the radicalization that engulfs many Muslim societies now spilling over into their emigrant communities in the West.	而民主作为一个整体概念也已经遭到了腐蚀和诋毁，与此同时，吞咽了许多穆斯林社会的极端主义却成功蔓延到了西方的移民社区当中。


When US President George W. Bush’s administration launched its Middle East Partnership Initiative for democratization in 2002, it turned out to be too little too late – and it died too soon.	当美国前总统小布什在2002年启动有关民主的“中东伙伴关系提案”时，这项提案已经太微不足道，太迟缓——也夭折得太快了。


The allocated budget was just $29 million, but its rapid death can also be ascribed to its short-sighted design – and to Barack Obama, who has shown little interest in the issue.	提案区区2900万美元的预算是一个方面，而其短视的政策设计也是令到提案速朽的原因——到了奥巴马时代，新总统对此也不感兴趣。


Obama’s praise of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak as a man with whom one could do business demoralized Egyptian opposition groups, which have been struggling against the long-serving autocrat and his efforts to ensure that his son, Gamal Mubarak, succeeds him.	奥巴马还盛赞埃及总统穆巴拉克是可以跟国内民主反对派和平相处的人，但此人却一直在努力维护自己的长期专制，并尽力确保其子迦玛尔·穆巴拉克能接掌自己的权位。


The US is not the only guilty party. Europe has played a major role in retarding democratic reform in Libya and Saudi Arabia.	当然，要对此负责的可不仅仅是美国，因为欧洲在阻挠利比亚和沙特阿拉伯民主进程方面也唱了主角。


Libya has become a Mecca for European leaders trying to win multi-billion dollar oil and investment deals. The rehabilitation of the Qaddafi regime has never included any push to ease political repression in Libya.	对欧洲领导人来说，利比亚已经变成了一个拥有数十亿美元石油和投资合同的风水宝地，而欧洲对卡扎菲政权的重新认可却并未包括任何能缓解其国内政治高压的交换条件。


An even more telling case is Saudi Arabia.	更有说服力的例子则是沙特阿拉伯。


No European leader risks antagonizing the Saudis by raising the issue of democracy and human rights.	没有任何欧洲领导人敢于用民主人权这些议题来激怒沙特人。


Saudi women remain prohibited from driving cars, traveling on their own, and working or studying without the permission of a male relative.	该国女性依然被禁止开车，独自旅行以及在没有男性亲属允许下工作或学习。


Saudi society, and those of some other Gulf States, lacks minimum levels of political freedom and participation.	沙特阿拉伯以及其他海湾国家社会都缺乏最基本的政治自由和参与。


The status quo is excused by Arab regimes in the name of cultural specificity – the same pretext used by Western governments to justify their “value-free” policies toward these regimes.	各个阿拉伯政权都用“文化特色”来为这一现状开脱，而这一理由也同样被西方政府在向这些政权推销他们的“非价值观”政策时玩得炉火纯青。


Add together all the trade-offs between the West and the Arab regimes, along with the Israeli and Islamist factor, and the conclusion at which one arrives is as inescapable as it is alarming: the West cannot afford democracy in the region.	最后，把所有西方和阿拉伯政权的谈判筹码加在一起，再加上以色列和伊斯兰极端主义的因素，自然就会得出一个无法逃避而且令人汗颜的结论：民主，是西方在中东地区的不可承受之重。


Can Europe’s Banks Save the EU?	欧洲银行能拯救欧盟吗？


NEW YORK – The multi-billion-dollar fine that the US government recently sought to impose on Germany’s Deutsche Bank for mis-selling mortgage securities in the United States has done little to improve confidence in the European Union, which remains plagued by slow economic growth, high unemployment, immigration challenges, and mounting uncertainty.	纽约—美国政府以德意志银行在美国不正当销售按揭证券为由对其课以数十亿美元罚款，这无助于改善欧盟信心，欧盟信心仍然受到经济增长低迷、失业高企、移民挑战和不确定性积累的影响。


What the Deutsche Bank scandal has done is shine a light on a last-resort option – a kind of “Hail Mary pass,” in American football terms – that could potentially save the European project.	德意志银行丑闻让人们得以一瞥有望拯救欧洲工程的最后选择——类似于美式橄榄球中的“万福玛丽亚传球”。


Despite representing around 20% of world GDP, the eurozone does not have a top-ten bank or financial services institution in the FT 500 global ranking.	欧元区占世界GDP的20%左右，但在FT500全球排名前十大银行和金融服务机构中难觅欧元区踪影。


The knock-on effects of such a fragmented and vulnerable banking system are apparent in Europe’s relatively poor showing in other sectors, such as technology and energy, that are vital for EU members’ economic future.	银行系统如此分散脆弱的连带效应淋漓尽致地表现在欧洲其他对欧盟成员国经济未来至关重要的行业的拙劣表现中，如技术和能源行业。


Europe has no shortage of banks: Germany has more than 1,500, and Italy has over 600.	欧洲不缺银行：德国有1,500多家银行，意大利也有600多家。


But many are “zombie banks,” with too many branches, too few deposits, and funding costs that far exceed those of their more successful peers.	但许多银行属于所谓的“僵尸银行”，分行众多，存款稀少，融资成本远超成功的同行。


In fact, according to the International Monetary Fund, some one-third of Europe’s banking sector, representing assets worth $8.5 trillion, remains weak and unable to generate sustainable profits.	事实上，据国际货币基金组织（IMF），欧洲银行业有三分之一——持有价值8. 5万亿美元的资产——仍然孱弱不堪，无法产生可持续利润。


All of this creates significant downside risks for the EU economy and, ultimately, the entire European political experiment.	所有这些给欧盟经济以及整个欧洲政治实验造成了巨大的失败风险。


Restoring stability in Europe’s banking system, by the IMF’s own estimate, will require at least one-third of Europe's banks to close or merge.	据IMF自身的测算，重塑欧洲银行系统稳定要让至少三分之一的欧洲银行关门或合并。


For Deutsche Bank, market speculators already seem to be expecting a merger, such as with Commerzbank, another German institution.	至于德意志银行，市场投机者似乎已经预测将发生合并，比如与另一家德国机构德商银行（Commerzbank）合并。


But, if such a merger is to be the first step toward consolidating the European banking sector and strengthening the EU, it should be a cross-border affair, bringing Deutsche Bank together with a significant French and/or Italian financial institution.	但如果要让这样的合并成为整合欧洲银行业、强化欧盟的第一步，那么需要进行跨国合并，德意志银行要与法国和/或意大利主要金融机构合并。


Such an approach could be a game changer in terms of the EU’s political credibility, which is perhaps most crucial to keeping the EU dream alive.	这一方针可以成为欧洲政治信誉的局面改变因素，而政治信誉也许是维持欧盟梦最关键的东西。


A cross-border European bank merger would have several benefits.	跨国欧洲银行合并能带来诸多好处。


As with any merger, consolidating weak, underperforming banks would enable them to strengthen their balance sheets and restructure non-performing loans – estimated to be worth some €1 trillion ($1.1 trillion), roughly three times higher than other global jurisdictions – thereby benefiting the wider economy.	与一切合并一样，整合业绩不佳的孱弱银行能让它们强化资产负债表、重组预计高达1万亿欧元、比世界其他地区高出三倍左右的不良贷款，从而有利于整体经济。


But a cross-border merger that creates a kind of European super-bank would be even more effective in addressing perennial operational challenges (in particular, liquidity and capital).	但产生欧洲超级银行的跨国合并在应对长期经营挑战（特别是流动性和资本）方面效果更好。


More important, this type of financial restructuring would open credit channels that are vital to fund investment and drive economic growth.	更重要的是，此类金融重组能够打开对投资融资和推动经济增长至关重要的信用渠道。


A cross-border European merger would also give a key region of the world economy a bank that is commensurate with its global importance.	跨国欧洲合并还能让世界经济的关键地区拥有一家与其全球重要性相符的银行。


A European banking champion would be far more competitive globally, rivaling the brawn of America’s dominant banks.	顶级欧洲大银行将拥有大得多的全球竞争力，挑战美资银行的主宰。


Creating such an institution is particularly urgent today, given that many countries worldwide seem to be increasingly rejecting economic openness in favor of more protectionist policies and balkanized regulation.	建立这样一家机构在今天尤其紧迫，因为全世界许多国家都在日益拒绝经济开放，采取保护主义政策和各自为政的监管。


In a more fragmented, less globalized world, where cross-border capital flows are declining – last year, the Institute of International Finance reports, net capital flows for emerging markets were negative for the first time since 1988 – Europe’s banking infrastructure will need to become broader and deeper in order to thrive.	在更加分散、更少全球化的世界中，跨国资本流正在减少——据国际金融研究所的报告，去年新兴市场净资本流入自1998年以来首次出现负值——欧洲银行基础设施需要广化和深化才能实现繁荣。


The third – and perhaps most important – reason why cross-border mergers might be the key to saving Europe’s banking sector is that they would signal to market participants and European citizens alike that political leaders are committed to European integration.	跨国合并可以成为拯救欧洲银行业的关键的第三个也许也是最重要的原因是这将向市场参与者和欧洲公民释放出信号，政治领导人仍将致力于欧洲一体化。


Again, the political and economic backdrop intensifies the urgency of such a move.	同样的，政治和经济背景让这一动作变得更加迫切。


Progress toward fiscal integration has stalled.	财政一体化进展陷入停滞。


National agendas have often taken priority over cooperation.	国家日程常常被置于合作之上。


And the United Kingdom is set to start negotiating its way out of the EU altogether – a decision that can reasonably be viewed as an indictment of Europe’s current integration model.	英国即将开始完全脱离欧盟的谈判——这一决定完全可以看成是对欧洲当前一体化模式的控诉。


From the perspective of financial markets and investors, a cross-border merger would be viewed bullishly, boosting confidence.	从金融市场和投资者的角度看，跨国合并可视为利好，刺激信心。


Even for ordinary citizens, any indication that the EU is not simply going to fall apart would carry major benefits, offering some semblance of assurance in a highly uncertain environment.	即使对普通公民而言，任何欧盟并没有走向分裂的信号都将带来巨大的好处，为高度不确定的环境营造安全感。


To be sure, a cross-border merger is a radical proposal.	平心而论，跨国合并是一个激进的方案。


The amount of political will it would require will not be easy to muster.	要聚集其所需要的政治意愿绝非易事。


But no bold play is ever a sure thing.	但不入虎穴焉得虎子？


The truth is that, without credible and transparent evidence of deepening linkages – not just in fiscal matters, but also in business and finance (the backbone of a modern economy) – the EU will remain a loosely connected and not particularly credible collection of countries.	事实是，没有可信而透明的深化联系的证据——不仅包括财政方面，也包括商业和金融（现代经济的基石）方面——欧盟将永远是一个联系松散、信誉并不卓著的国家集合。


As we have seen in the last few years, such an arrangement will not resolve those countries’ economic woes.	我们在最近几年中已经看到，这一安排无法解决欧盟成员国的经济问题。


One might argue that now is not the time to push toward greater integration.	你也许会说，现在不是推动加强一体化的时机。


The situation is too fragile, and popular opposition is too strong.	局面太支离破碎，群众反对也太强。


If growth were even middling, skeptics might say, the political environment would be far more amenable.	怀疑派会说，哪怕增长能达到中等表现，政治环境也将大大改善。


But the EU’s current disjointed structure will not hold.	但欧盟目前貌合神离的结构无法坚持下去。


If strong action is not taken soon, the cracks will only widen, generating increasingly powerful political discord and, ultimately, dooming the entire European project.	如果不马上采取强力行动，欧盟的裂痕将继续扩大，形成日益强大的政治分歧，最终威胁到整个欧洲工程。


Devaluing Life	贬低生命


In August 2001, President George W. Bush told Americans that he worried about “a culture that devalues life,” and that he believed that, as President of the United States, he has “an important obligation to foster and encourage respect for life in America and throughout the world.”	2001年8月，美国总统布什告诉美国人民说，他担心“一种贬低生命的文化”，而且他相信，作为美国总统，他承担“促进和鼓励在美国和全世界尊重生命的重大责任”。


That belief lay behind Bush’s denial of federal government funds for stem-cell research that could encourage the destruction of human embryos.	这一信念促使布什否决了为可能鼓励摧毁人类胚胎的干细胞研究提供联邦资助。


Although the Bush administration acknowledged that some scientists believe stem cell research could offer new ways of treating diseases that affect 128 million Americans, this prospect evidently did not, in Bush’s view, justify destroying human embryos.	尽管布什政府承认，某些科学家相信干细胞研究可以为影响到1亿2千8百万美国人的疾病提供新的治疗方法，但是在布什看来，这一前景明显地并不为摧毁人类胚胎提供理由。


Last month, the military forces that this same president commands aimed a missile at a house in Damadola, a Pakistani village near the Afghanistan border.	上个月，这位同一个总统所统率的军队把一枚导弹瞄准了一个靠近阿富汗边境的巴基斯坦村庄达马多拉的一个房子。


Eighteen people were killed, among them five children.	18个人被炸身亡，其中包括5名儿童。


The target of the attack, Al Qaeda’s number two man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was not among the dead, although lesser figures in the terrorist organization reportedly were.	这次袭击的目标是基地组织二号人物扎瓦赫里。 尽管据报道这一恐怖组织中级别较低的人物被炸身亡，但是他并没有被炸死。


Bush did not apologize for the attack, nor did he reprimand those who ordered it.	布什并没有对这一袭击道歉，也没有训斥下令轰炸的人。


Apparently, he believes that the chance of killing an important terrorist leader is sufficient justification for firing a missile that will almost certainly kill innocent human beings.	他明显地相信炸死一个重要的恐怖分子首领的机会就足以为发射几乎肯定会杀死无辜的导弹提供充足的理由。


Other American politicians took the same stance.	其他美国政客们也持同样立场。


Senator Trent Lott, a conservative Republican – and a prominent opponent of abortion – said of the attack: “Absolutely, we should do it.”	保守派共和党参议员洛特也是一个知名的反堕胎人士，他评论这场袭击时说：“我们绝对应当这样做。


Senator John McCain, another leading Republican, though one often ready to disagree with Bush, expressed regret for the civilian deaths, but added, “I can’t tell you that we wouldn’t do the same thing again.”	”令一名重要的共和党人麦凯恩参议院尽管经常与布什意见相左，还表达对平民死亡的遗憾，但是补充说：“我不能告诉你我们不会再这样做了。 ”


Indeed, it would be hard for the current administration to say that it wouldn’t do the same thing again, because it has done it many times before.	的确，让现今的美国政府说它不会再这样做了是件困难的事情，因为以前它做了很多次。


On November 1, 2001, American planes bombed Ishaq Suleiman, a group of mud huts, because a Taliban truck had been parked in one of the streets.	2001年11月1日，由于一辆塔利班的卡车停放在了街道旁，美国军机轰炸了苏莱曼，那是一群泥瓦房。


The truck left before the bomb hit, but 12 local villagers were killed and 14 were injured.	卡车在轰炸之前就已经离开，但是12名当地村民被炸死，14人受伤。


There are many more such stories of innocent lives being lost in the war in Afghanistan.	在阿富汗的战争中，还有许多人死于无辜。


In Iraq, too, American attacks have taken the lives of many civilians.	在伊拉克也是一样，美国的袭击夺去了许多平民的生命。


Again, one of many examples will suffice.	这样的例子很多。


On April 5, 2003, a civilian neighborhood in Basra was bombed.	2003年4月5日，巴士拉的一个平民区域被炸。


The target was General Ali Hassan al-Majid, known as “Chemical Ali” because of his use of chemical weapons against Iraqis.	目标是因使用化学武器对付伊拉克人而著称的马基德将军，也叫“化学阿里”。


One bomb hit the home of the Hamoodi family, a respected, educated family, none of whose members belonged to the ruling Baath Party.	一枚炸弹击中了受人尊重、受过良好教育的哈姆迪家族的房子。 这家人里没有一个属于当权的伊拉克复兴社会党。


Of the extended family of 14, ten were killed, including an infant, a two-year-old baby, a 10-year-old boy, and a 12-year-old girl.	全家14人中，10人被炸死，包括一名婴儿、一个两岁的孩子、一个10岁的男孩以及一个12岁的女孩。


Four months later, Majid was captured alive; the bombs had missed their intended target.	四个月后，马基德被生擒。 炸弹没有击中他们的预定目标。


This consistent pattern of readiness to inflict civilian casualties – often when striking targets that are not of vital military significance – suggests that Bush and other pro-life American leaders have less concern for the lives of innocent human beings in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan, than they have for human embryos.	这一准备造成平民死亡、而且打击并非具有重大军事意义的目标的一贯模式表明，与人类胚胎相比较，布什以及其他支持生命者美国领导人对在阿富汗、伊拉克以及巴基斯坦的无辜人的生命漠不关心。


This is a bizarre set of priorities.	这是一种奇怪的优先重点。


No parents grieve for a lost embryo in the way that they would grieve over the death of a child.	没有一个父母会对胚胎损失像孩子死亡那样感到悲痛。


No embryos are capable of suffering, or have hopes or desires for the future that are abruptly cut off by their death.	胚胎没有能力痛苦、怀有希望或者对由于死亡而突然中断的未来抱有欲望。


It might be possible to justify the loss of innocent human life in Damadola by a utilitarian calculation that killing Al Qaeda’s leaders will, in the long run, save a larger number of innocent human beings.	人们有可能用一种功利主义的推算来给达马多拉无辜平民的死亡提供理由，也就是说，从长远来看，杀死基地组织领导人将会挽救更多数量的无辜百姓。


After all, if they remain at large, they may succeed in carrying out further terrorist attacks that take hundreds or even thousands of innocent lives.	毕竟，如果他们逍遥法外，它们可能会成功地实施进一步的恐怖主义攻击，造成数以千计甚至使数以万计的无辜平民死亡。


Bush, however, cannot rely on that argument, for it is precisely the kind of justification that he rejects when it comes to destroying embryos in order to save, in the long run, those dying from diseases for which we currently have no cure.	但是，布什却不能依赖于这一论断，因为这正是在摧毁胚胎、从而在长远上挽救死于目前无药可久的疾病的人的生命问题上他拒绝资助的理由。


Other moralists will say that the difference between destroying embryos for research purposes and killing civilians in military attacks is that the former is deliberate killing, whereas the latter deaths are “collateral damage” – unintended, if foreseeable, side-effects of a justifiable act of war.	其他说教者会说，为研究目的摧毁胚胎和在军事攻击中错杀平民的区别在于，前者是有意的杀戮而后者则是无意的“间接损害”，是可以预料的、战争行为中的正当的副作用。


We can grant that it was not the primary intention of those who planned and authorized the attack on Damadola to kill innocent people.	我们可以同意，杀死无辜并不是那些规划以及下令在达马多拉袭击的人的根本意图。


We can also accept that al-Zawahiri is undoubtedly a dangerous foe, still active in a terrorist movement, and that he is a legitimate military target.	我们还可以接受这样的说法，也就是扎瓦赫里是一个危险的敌人，仍然活跃于恐怖主义运动，而且他是一个合法的军事目标。


Perhaps this particular attack can be justified on those grounds.	这一特定的袭击可能以这样的理由而站住脚。


Nevertheless, the doctrine that it is acceptable to take actions that will foreseeably kill innocent people can have the effect of leading us to treat more lightly than we should the deaths of those killed.	但是，采取可能有预料地杀死无辜的行动是可以接受的信条将会产生导致我们理应善待而不不善待被杀身亡的人的结果。


That, it seems, is what has happened somewhere in the American chain of command.	这看起来就是发生在美国指挥链中的事情。


The presence of a Taliban truck does not justify bombing a village in which civilians are going about their daily lives.	一辆塔利班的卡车并不能为轰炸平民正常生活的村庄提供理由。


Killing innocent people in order to bring a kind of rough justice to “Chemical Ali” – a particularly nasty member of Saddam’s military elite, but one who at the time of the raid was no longer in command of military forces – is wrong.	“化学阿里”是萨达姆军事精英中的一个特别邪恶的成员，但是他在袭击的时候已经不再指挥军队了。 为了将其草草绳之以法而滥杀无辜是错误的。


A culture that allows – and even endorses – such tactics is not one that is genuinely committed to encouraging respect for life.	这种允许甚至是赞同此类战术的文化并不是真心真意地致力于鼓励尊重生命。


We can be quite sure that American forces would not have acted in the same way if the civilians nearby had been other Americans.	我们可以相当确信，如果周围的平民是美国人的话，美国军队是不会以同样的方式行动的。


Developing Countries and the Global Crisis	发展中国家和全球危机


NEW YORK – This year is likely to be the worst for the global economy since World War II, with the World Bank estimating a decline of up to 2%.	纽约——今年可能是二战以来世界经济最糟糕的一年，世界银行估计世界经济将下滑高达2%。


Even developing countries that did everything right – and had far better macroeconomic and regulatory policies than the United States did – are feeling the impact.	即使那些没有犯任何错误的发展中国家（而且它们的宏观经济政策和调控政策还要远远优于美国）也受到了影响。


Largely as a result of a precipitous fall in exports, China is likely to continue to grow, but at a much slower pace than the 11-12% annual growth of recent years.	中国经济可能继续增长，但是速度会大大放缓，远远低于这些年来每年11%-12%的增长速度，而这主要是因为出口急剧下挫。


Unless something is done, the crisis will throw as many as 200 million additional people into poverty.	除非采取行动，危机将把另外多达两亿的人口拖入贫困之中。


This global crisis requires a global response, but, unfortunately, responsibility for responding remains at the national level.	这场全球危机要求我们作出全球性的应对，然而不幸的是，作出回应的责任依然只停留在国家层面。


Each country will try to design its stimulus package to maximize the impact on its own citizens – not the global impact.	每个国家都力图让自己设计的一揽子经济刺激计划能够最大程度地造福于本国公民，而不是最大限度地影响全球经济。


In assessing the size of the stimulus, countries will balance the cost to their own budgets with the benefits in terms of increased growth and employment for their own economies.	各国在评估经济刺激方案的规模时，都会在 本国 预算的成本和收益之间保持平衡，而这一收益是以本国的经济增幅和就业率增幅来计算的。


Since some of the benefit (much of it in the case of small, open economies) will accrue to others, stimulus packages are likely to be smaller and more poorly designed than they otherwise would be, which is why a globally coordinated stimulus package is needed.	由于一些收益（主要是在小的开放型经济体里）将会带来其他收益，这些一揽子刺激计划可能规模过小，设计也要逊色一些，这就是为什么需要全球性、相互协作的一揽子刺激计划。


This is one of several important messages to emerge from a United Nations Experts Commission on the global economic crisis, which I chair – and which recently submitted its preliminary report to the UN.	这是来自联合国专家委员会关于全球经济危机的若干重要信息之一。 我担任这个委员会的主席。


The report supports many of the G-20 initiatives, but it urges stronger measures focused on developing countries.	这份报告支持许多由G-20（20国集团）提出的倡议，但它敦促针对发展中国家采取更有力的措施。


For instance, while it is recognized that almost all countries need to undertake stimulus measures (we’re all Keynesians now), many developing countries do not have the resources to do so.	例如，尽管人们认识到几乎所有国家都需要采取刺激措施（我们现在都是凯恩斯主义者），但许多发展中国家没有资源来这样做。


Nor do existing international lending institutions.	而且现存的国际借贷机构也同样缺乏资源。


But if we are to avoid winding up in another debt crisis, some, perhaps much, of the money will have to be given in grants.	但是如果我们要避免卷入另一轮债务危机，一些钱，也许是很多钱，将被迫以补贴的形式来发放。


And, in the past, assistance has been accompanied by extensive “conditions,” some of which enforced contractionary monetary and fiscal policies – just the opposite of what is needed now – and imposed financial deregulation, which was among the root causes of the crisis.	而且，过去的援助伴随着繁多的“条件”，其中一些实施互相矛盾的货币和财政政策——这和现在的需要背道而驰； 这些条件还迫使受惠国放松金融管制，而这正是导致危机的原因之一。


In many parts of the world, there is a strong stigma associated with going to the International Monetary Fund, for obvious reasons.	在世界的许多地方，基于各种原因，IMF(国际货币基金组织)的名声都蒙上了不小的污点。


And there is dissatisfaction not just from borrowers, but also from potential suppliers of funds.	而且，心怀不满的不止是借款方，还有潜在的资金提供方。


The sources of liquid funds today are in Asia and the Middle East, but why should these countries contribute money to organizations in which their voice is limited and which have often pushed policies that are antithetical to their values and beliefs?	今日的流动资金来源于亚洲和中东，但是为什么这些国家应该把钱献给这样的组织：他们的声音在其中受到限制，而且这些组织还经常推行与他们的价值和信仰相对立的政策？


Many of the governance reforms proposed for the IMF and the World Bank – affecting, most obviously, how their heads are chosen – finally seem to be on the table.	针对IMF和世界银行提出的多项管理改革似乎终于摆上了桌面。 这些改革将在上述两家机构的领导者选择方面发挥最为明显的影响。


But the reform process is slow, and the crisis will not wait.	然而改革进程缓慢，而危机却不会停步等待。


It is thus imperative that assistance be provided through a variety of channels, in addition to, or instead of, the IMF, including regional institutions.	因此，应该通过包括地区性机构在内的多种渠道来提供援助（和IMF一起或是取代IMF），这是极为重要的。


New lending facilities could be created, with governance structures more consonant with the twenty-first century.	我们可以创造新的借款工具，而管理机制也应该和21世纪更加协调一致。


If this could be done quickly (which I think it could), such facilities could be an important channel for disbursing funds.	如果这一切能够迅速完成（我认为它能）， 这些工具将成为资金发放的重要渠道。


At their November 2008 summit the G-20 leaders strongly condemned protectionism and committed themselves not to engage in it.	在2008年11月举行的G-20峰会上，各国领袖们强烈谴责了贸易保护主义，并且承诺本国不会实行保护主义。


Unfortunately, a World Bank study notes that 17 of the 20 countries have actually undertaken new protectionist measures, most notably the US with the “buy American” provision included in its stimulus package.	不幸的是，世界���行的研究注意到：20个国家中有17 个实际上已经采取了新的贸易保护措施，最为明显的就是美国，它在一揽子刺激计划中含有“只买美国货”的条款。


But it has long been recognized that subsidies can be just as destructive as tariffs – and even less fair, since rich countries can better afford them.	然而，长久以来，人们已经认识到，补贴可能和关税一样具有毁灭性，甚至还不如关税公平，因为富裕国家更有能力提供补贴。


If there was ever a level playing field in the global economy, it no longer exists: the massive subsidies and bailouts provided by the US have changed everything, perhaps irreversibly.	如果全球经济曾经有过一个公平的竞技场，那它已经不再存在了：美国所提供的巨额补贴和紧急援助已经改变了一切，而且这种改变也许是不可逆转的。


Indeed, even firms in advanced industrial countries that have not received a subsidy are at an unfair advantage.	的确，即使是发达工业国家里没有收到补贴的公司也处于一个不公平的优势位置。


They can undertake risks that others cannot, knowing that if they fail, they may be bailed out.	他们能冒其他公司不能冒的风险，因为他们知道一旦失败了，他们可以获得紧急援助。


While one can understand the domestic political imperatives that have led to subsidies and guarantees, developed countries need to recognize the global consequences, and provide compensatory assistance to developing countries.	尽管人们可以理解国内政治的准则——这些准则导致了补贴和担保的出现，但是发达国家需要认识到自身行为的全球性后果，并且为发展中国家提供补偿性的援助。


One of the more important medium-term initiatives urged by the UN Commission is the creation of a global economic coordinating council, which would not only coordinate economic policy, but would also assess impending problems and institutional gaps.	由联合国委员会提出的，更为重要的中期倡议里还有这样一条：创立全球性的经济协作理事会，该理事会不仅要协调经济政策，还会对面临的问题和机构之间的分歧进行评估。


As the downturn deepens, several countries may, for example, face bankruptcy.	例如，随着衰退加剧，部分国家将会面临破产。


But we still do not have an adequate framework for dealing with such problems.	但是我们尚未创立一个处理此类问题的完整架构。


And the US dollar reserve-currency system – the backbone of the current global financial system – is fraying.	美元作为储备货币的机制是现今全球金融体系的基石，但是现在这一机制出现了问题。


China has expressed concerns, and the head of its central bank has joined the UN Commission in calling for a new global reserve system.	中国已经表示了关注，它的央行领导人加入了联合国委员会，号召采用新的全球储备机制。


The UN Commission argues that addressing this old issue – raised more than 75 years ago by Keynes – is essential if we are to have a robust and stable recovery.	联合国委员会认为，如果我们想要取得富有活力的稳定复苏，那么必须处理这个老问题——远在75年之前甚至更早一些时候，凯恩斯就提出了这个问题。


Such reforms will not occur overnight.	这类改革不会在一夜之中就得以完成。


But they will not occur ever unless work on them is begun now.	但是现在如果不就此展开行动，它们将 永远 也不会发生。


Closing Developing Countries’ Capital Drain	遏制发展中国家资本外流


NEW YORK – Developing countries are bracing for a major slowdown this year.	纽约——发展中国家即将在本年度迎来一个重大的增长放缓。


According to the UN report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, their growth averaged only 3.8% in 2015 – the lowest rate since the global financial crisis in 2009 and matched in this century only by the recessionary year of 2001.	根据联合国发布的《2016年世界经济形势与展望》报告，这些国家在2015年的平均增长将只有3. 8％——是2009年全球金融危机以来最低水平，萧条程度也跟2001年并无二致。


And what is important to bear in mind is that the slowdown in China and the deep recessions in the Russian Federation and Brazil only explain part of the broad falloff in growth.	更需牢记的是，中国经济的放缓以及俄罗斯联邦和巴西的深度衰退只是导致增长全面衰退的一部分原因。


True, falling demand for natural resources in China (which accounts for nearly half of global demand for base metals) has had a lot to do with the sharp declines in these prices, which have hit many developing and emerging economies in Latin America and Africa hard.	诚然，在中国对自然资源的需求下降（占了全球基���金属需求的近一半）是这类产品价格大幅下跌的主因，也重创了许多拉丁美洲和非洲发展中国家和新兴经济体。


Indeed, the UN report lists 29 economies that are likely to be badly affected by China’s slowdown.	事实上，联合国报告指出有29个经济体可能会受到中国经济放缓的严重影响。


And the collapse of oil prices by more than 60% since July 2014 has undermined the growth prospects of oil exporters.	而油价自2014年7月以来超过60％的下跌也削弱了石油出口国的增长前景。


The real worry, however, is not just falling commodity prices, but also massive capital outflows.	但真正让人担心不只是商品价格的下跌，还有大规模的资本外流。


During 2009-2014, developing countries collectively received a net capital inflow of $2.2 trillion, partly owing to quantitative easing in advanced economies, which pushed interest rates there to near zero.	2009~2014年间，发展中国家总共获得了2. 2万亿美元的净资本流入，部分原因是发达经济体的量化宽松政策在令利率处于近零水平。


The search for higher yields drove investors and speculators to developing countries, where the inflows increased leverage, propped up equity prices, and in some cases supported a commodity price boom.	对资本更高回报的渴求驱使投资者和投机者转向发展中国家，这类流入增加了杠杆，撑起了股价，并在某些情况下支撑了商品价格上涨。


Market capitalization in the Mumbai, Johannesburg, São Paulo, and Shanghai stock exchanges, for example, nearly tripled in the years following the financial crisis.	比如孟买、约翰内斯堡，圣保罗和上海证券交易所的总市值几乎在金融危机后的数年内翻了近三倍。


Equity markets in other developing countries also witnessed similar dramatic increases during this period.	在此期间，其他发展中国家的股市也出现了类似的大幅飙升。


But the capital flows are now reversing, turning negative for the first time since 2006, with net outflows from developing countries in 2015 exceeding $600 billion – more than one-quarter of the inflows they received during the previous six years.	但如今资本流动的方向出现了自2006年以来的第一次逆转，在2015年从发展中国家净流出了超过6000亿美元——相当于先前六年各国净资金流入总额的四分之一强。


The largest outflows have been through banking channels, with international banks reducing their gross credit exposures to developing countries by more than $800 billion in 2015.	其中最大的资金流出渠道是银行渠道，在2015年一年内各大国际银行就将其在发展中国家的信贷总量削减了超过8000亿美元。


Capital outflows of this magnitude are likely to have myriad effects: drying up liquidity, increasing the costs of borrowing and debt service, weakening currencies, depleting reserves, and leading to decreases in equity and other asset prices.	这种规模的资本外流可能造成众多影响：流动性干涸，借贷成本增加，货币走弱，储备耗尽，并导致股票和其他资产价格下跌。


There will be large knock-on effects on the real economy, including severe damage to developing countries’ growth prospects.	此外还会对实体经济产生大型连锁反应，包括严重损害发展中国家的增长前景。


This is not the first time that developing countries have faced the challenges of managing pro-cyclical hot capital, but the magnitudes this time are overwhelming.	这不是发展中国家第一次面对如何管理亲周期性热钱的难题，但此次的规模是压倒性的。


During the Asian financial crisis, net outflows from the East Asian economies were only $12 billion in 1997.	在亚洲金融危机期间的1997年，从东亚经济体的资本净流出也不过120亿美元。


Of course, the East Asian economies today are better able to withstand such massive outflows, given their accumulation of international reserves since the financial crisis in 1997.	不过当今的东亚经济体也能更好地承受这样大规模的外流，因为1997年金融危机后各国外汇储备都有所增加。


Indeed, the global stock of reserves has more than tripled since the Asian financial crisis.	事实上，各国的外汇储备规模比亚洲金融危机时增长了超过三倍。


China, for example, used nearly $500 billion of its reserves in 2015 to fight capital outflows and prevent the renminbi’s sharp depreciation; but it still has more than $3 trillion in reserves.	以中国为例，虽然该国在2015年动用了近5000亿美元外汇储备来对冲资金外流同时防止人民币大幅贬值； 但它手中仍握有超过3万亿美元储备。


The stockpile of reserves may partly explain why huge outflows have not triggered a full-blown financial crisis in developing countries.	这些储备可以在某种程度上解释为何庞大的外流规模未能触发一场发展中国家的全面金融危机。


But not all countries are so fortunate to have a large arsenal.	但是并非所有国家都是如此殷实。


Once again, advocates of free mobility for destabilizing short-term capital flows are being proven wrong.	那些鼓吹要让破坏稳定的短期资本自由流动的人再次被证明是错误的。


Many emerging markets recognized the dangers and tried to reduce capital inflows.	许多新兴市场国家已经意识到了这种危险并试图减少资本流入。


South Korea, for example, has been using a series of macro-prudential measures since 2010, aimed at moderating pro-cyclical cross-border banking-sector liabilities.	以韩国为例，该国从2010年开始实施了一系列宏观审慎措施，旨在缓和顺周期性的跨国银行部门负债。


The measures taken were only partially successful, as the data above show.	但正如上述数据显示，这些措施只取得了部分成功。


The question is, what should they do now?	现在的问题是，他们如今应该怎么办？


Corporate sectors in developing countries, having increased their leverage with capital inflows during the post-2008 period, are particularly vulnerable.	在2008年后通过资本流入提高了杠杆水平的发展中国家企业部门尤其脆弱。


Capital outflows will adversely affect their equity prices, push up their debt-to-equity ratios, and increase the likelihood of defaults.	资本外流对其股票价格产生了不利影响，推高它们的负债/权益比率，增加了违约的可能性。


The problem is especially severe in commodity-exporting developing economies, where firms borrowed extensively, expecting high commodity prices to persist.	这个问题在以商品出口为主的发展中经济体中尤为严重，因为企业往往会预期商品价格持续高企而大幅借债。


Many developing-country governments failed to learn the lesson of earlier crises, which should have prompted regulations and taxes restricting and discouraging foreign-currency exposures.	许多发展中国家政府未能从以前的危机中得到教训，借助法规和税收去限制和遏制外汇风险。


Now governments need to take quick action to avoid becoming liable for these exposures.	如今各国政府需要迅速采取行动以避免为这些风险承担责任。


Expedited debtor-friendly bankruptcy procedures could ensure quick restructuring and provide a framework for renegotiating debts.	加快对债务人有利的破产程序可以确保快速调整，并为重启债务谈判提供了一个框架。


Developing-country governments should also encourage the conversion of such debts to GDP-linked or other types of indexed bonds.	发展中国家政府也应鼓励将这类债务转换为与GDP挂钩或其他类型的指数化债券。


Those with high levels of foreign debt but with reserves should also consider buying back their sovereign debt in the international capital market, taking advantage of falling bond prices.	那些具有较高外债以及外汇储备的国家也应该考虑在国际资本市场上将本国的主权债务买回来，充分利用债券价格下跌的优势。


While reserves may provide some cushion for minimizing the adverse effects of capital outflows, in most cases they will not be sufficient.	虽然储备可能会提供一些缓冲来将资本流出的不良影响最小化，但在大多数情况下它们都是不够的。


Developing countries should resist the temptation of raising interest rates to stem capital outflows.	发展中国家应当抵制那种试图利用升息以遏制资本外流的诱惑。


Historically, interest-rate hikes have had little effect.	从历史上看，加息收效甚微。


In fact, because they hurt economic growth, further reducing countries’ ability to service external debts, higher interest rates can be counterproductive.	事实上，提高利率会破坏经济增长，进而削弱了各国偿还外债的能力，所以效果可能会适得其反。


Macro-prudential measures can discourage or delay capital outflows, but such measures, too, may be insufficient.	宏观审慎措施可以阻止或延缓资本外流，但这样的措施也可能是不够的。


In some cases, it may be necessary to introduce selective, targeted, and time-bound capital controls to stem outflows, especially outflows through banking channels.	在某些情况下，可能有必要引入选择性，有针对性和有时限的资本管制来遏制外流，尤其是通银行渠道的外流。


This would entail, for example, restricting capital transfers between parent banks in developed countries and their subsidiaries or branches in developing countries.	例如，例如有必要限制发达国家银行与其发展中国家分支机构之间的资本转移。


Following the successful Malaysian example in 1997, developing countries could also temporarily suspend all capital withdrawals to stabilize capital flows and exchange rates.	参照1997年马来西亚的成功例子，发展中国家也可以暂时停止所有资金提款以稳定资本流动和汇率。


This is perhaps the only recourse for many developing countries to avoid a catastrophic financial crisis.	这也许是许多发展中国家避免灾难性金融危机的唯一办法。


It is important that they act soon.	而重要的是，它们得尽快行动起来。


The views expressed here do not represent the views of the United Nations or its member states.	本文观点与联合国及其成员国无关。


Reversing Africa’s Medical Brain Drain	扭转非洲医疗人才流失


OXFORD – There is understandable consternation over Uganda’s plan to send almost 300 health workers to Trinidad and Tobago.	牛津—不难理解，乌干达派遣近300名健康工人前往特立尼达和多巴哥的计划引起了人们的惊恐。


The plan reportedly includes four of Uganda’s 11 registered psychiatrists, 20 of its 28 radiologists, and 15 of its 92 pediatricians.	据报道，该计划包括乌干达11名注册精神病医师中的四人、28名放射科医师中的20人和92名儿科医生中的15人。


In return, the Caribbean country (which has a doctor-to-patient ratio 12 times higher than Uganda’s) will help Uganda exploit its recently discovered oil fields.	作为回报，特立尼达和多巴哥（其医生-病人比是比乌干达高12倍）将帮助乌干达开发最近发现的油田。


Uganda’s foreign ministry says the agreement is part of its mandate to promote the country’s interests abroad through the transfer of skills and technology, as well as an opportunity to earn foreign exchange by sourcing employment for its citizens.	乌干达外交部长说，该协议是乌干达通过技能和技术转移促进国家利益的使命的一部分，也是一次通过为其公民提供就业机会换取外汇的机会。


But Uganda’s international donors are not convinced; the United States has voiced strong concern, and Belgium has suspended development aid to Uganda’s health-care sector.	但这一说辞无法让乌干达的国际赞助者满意； 美国已经表示严重关注，比利时也叫停了对乌干达医疗业的援助。


Two of my friends, a gynecologist and a pediatrician, have applied to go.	我的两位朋友——一位妇科医师和一位儿科医师——已申请加入该计划。


Had I still been working with them in Uganda, I might have been tempted to join the exodus.	如果我仍在乌干达与他们共事，我也许也会被吸引加入其中。


Uganda’s health-care professionals are talented and highly qualified.	乌干达医疗专业人士具有很高的才华和资质。


But they often work in appalling conditions at great personal sacrifice.	但他们的工作条件往往差到令人发指，需要作出巨大的个人牺牲。


So it is not surprising that they become disheartened and seek professional opportunities elsewhere.	因此，毫不奇怪他们会失去一腔热情，寻求其他地区的工作机会。


They know that the status quo is failing, and that something has to change.	他们知道，现状令人沮丧，必须做出改变。


I knew it, too.	我也知道。


In 2009, I was on track to become only the sixth neurosurgeon in Uganda, working at Mulago National Referral Hospital, the country’s main tertiary institution.	2009年，我即将成为乌干达第六名神经外科医师，在穆拉戈国立中心医院（Mulago National Referral Hospital，乌干达最高级的医院）就职。


We sometimes had to cancel major operations when the malfunctioning sewage system in our theatre regurgitated waste into what was supposed to be a sterile environment.	有时我们不得不因为排水系统故障导致废物回流至无菌环境而取消大手术。


We were severely understaffed.	我们的人手严重不足。


Once, during a string of consecutive night shifts, I was so tired that I accidentally pricked myself with a needle while drawing blood from an HIV-positive patient.	有一次，在连续倒班后，我实在筋疲力尽，不慎在为一名艾滋病毒阳性患者抽血时用针头划伤了自己。


I was given an antiretroviral treatment called Post-Exposure (PEP) for a month and had to take time off work because of the drug’s side effects.	我接受了一个月的被称为“后暴露”（Post-Exposure，PEP）的抗逆转录病毒治疗，并且因为治疗的副作用而不得不停止工作。


Meanwhile, adding to my anguish, the government delayed payment of our salaries – and not for the first time.	与此同时，让我更加痛苦的是，政府扣发了我的薪水——这已经不是第一次了。


The deal between Uganda and Trinidad and Tobago violates the World Health Organization’s global code on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel, which is aimed at discouraging the recruitment of personnel from countries that have a critical shortage of health-care workers.	乌干达与特立尼达和多巴哥之间的协议违反了世界卫生组织国际卫生工作人员招聘（International Recruitment of Health Personnel）的全球规则，该规则旨在阻止从卫生工作者严重短缺的国家招聘人手。


A Ugandan think tank, the Institute of Public Policy Research, has called the plan a “state-sanctioned brain drain.”	乌干达智库公共政策研究所（Institute of Public Policy Research）将该计划称为“国家批准的人才流失”（state-sanctioned brain drain）。


It has taken the government to court in an effort to force it to reverse its decision.	该智库已将政府告上法庭，试图迫使其收回成命。


But the truth is that Uganda may have inadvertently stumbled upon an innovative policy.	但事实上，乌干达可能在不经意间被一项创新性政策所羁绊。


If the plan is executed properly, it could benefit both the health-care sector and the country, by raising additional funds, strengthening medical workers’ skills and motivation, and creating a model for engaging with the diaspora.	如果该计划得到恰当的执行，将有利于医疗业和国家——筹集更多资金、强化医疗工作者技能和动力、创造一个侨民参与模式。


Other developing countries facing similar challenges with retaining health-care workers could learn from Uganda’s experience.	其他面临类似挑战、留住医疗工作者的发展中国家可以借鉴乌干达的经验。


Of course, this type of mass recruitment could have a major adverse impact on developing countries’ health-care systems.	当然，这类大面积招募可能对发展中国的医疗体系形成巨大的消极影响。


But it also should be recognized that it is not sensible to chain health-care workers to a failing system.	但同样应该认识到，把医疗工作者绑定在一个失败的体系上是不明智的。


There has to be a way to encourage doctors to contribute to their country’s health-care system, while offering them an opportunity to achieve their personal and professional goals.	必须找到办法鼓励医生为祖国医疗体系做出贡献，同时为他们提供实现个人和职业目标的机会。


In order to make it work, the recipient country would have to agree to recruit health-care professionals solely through the government.	要让计划起效，接收国必须同意只通过政府招聘医疗专业人士。


The country could then tax the foreign income of its workers and use the revenues to develop its health-care system.	然后，该国可以对员工的海外收入征税，用税收收入发展本国医疗体系。


Moreover, any agreement should explicitly require the provision of education and professional-development opportunities for recruited health-care workers.	此外，任何协议都应该你明确要求为被招聘医疗工作者提供教育和职业发展机会。


The recipient country might open their medical schools and health-care training to new recruits, or help pay for health-care education and a scholarship fund back home.	接收国可以向新员工开放医学院和医疗培训计划，或资助其国内的医疗教育和奖学金。


That way, developing countries like Uganda could not only train more health-care professionals, but also have funds to send workers abroad for training.	这样，乌干达等发展中国家不但可以培养更多的医疗专业人士，也将有资金派遣员工赴海外培训。


The impact of such programs could be far-reaching, because the deficit of medical professionals is not limited to Sub-Saharan Africa.	这类计划的影响可以十分深远，因为医疗专业人士短缺问题不仅局限于撒哈拉以南非洲。


With so many qualified doctors emigrating to the United Kingdom and the US, the rest of the world, including developed countries, is also experiencing a tremendous medical brain drain.	大量高资质医生移民到英国和美国，包括发达国家在内的世界其他地区都在经历医学人才外流。


Roughly 35,000 Greek doctors have emigrated to Germany, while Bulgaria is “bleeding doctors,” losing up to 600 every year (equal to the country’s annual number of medical-school graduates).	大约35,000名希腊医生移民到了德国，而保加利亚也在“流失医生”，每年有多大600人外流（相当于该国每年医学院毕业生人数）。


But developing countries face the biggest challenge.	但发展中国家面临的挑战最严峻。


Eighty percent of countries where the density of skilled health workers is less than 22.8 per 10,000 people are in Africa, and another 13% are in Southeast Asia.	高技能卫生工作者比例小于万分之22. 8的国家八成分布在非洲，另有13%位于东南亚。


The effects of such shortages were made clear during the recent Ebola crisis in West Africa.	如此短缺的结果在最近的西非埃博拉危机中暴露无遗。


The trouble is that the so-called brain drain in Uganda and elsewhere is not the cause of this dearth of health-care workers.	麻烦在于乌干达和其他地区所谓的人才流失并不是这一医疗工作者短缺的原因。


It is only a symptom of health-care systems that are already in crisis.	这只是已处于危机中的医疗体系的一个症候。


The ultimate solution is not to discourage professionals from working abroad; it is to ensure better training and more amenable working conditions.	最终的解决方案不是阻止专业人士赴海外工作； 而是确保改善培训和更好的工作条件。


That way, we health-care professionals can focus on the task at hand: providing health care to our people.	这样，我们医疗专业人士才能专注于我们的本职工作：为我们的人民IT提供医疗服务。


Growth in a Time of Disruption	危机时代的增长


FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA – Developing countries are facing major obstacles – many of which they have little to no control over – to achieving sustained high growth.	发自佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡——发展中国家的持续高增长目标如今面临着多项重大障碍——其中许多他们基本上是无力破除的。


Beyond the headwinds generated by slow advanced-economy growth and abnormal post-crisis monetary and financial conditions, there are the disruptive impacts of digital technology, which are set to erode developing economies’ comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing activities.	除了发达经济体增长缓慢以及危机后货币和金异常情况之外，还有数字技术所带来的破坏性影响，而这将削弱发展中国家在劳动密集型制造业方面的比较优势。


With the reversal of these trends out of the question, adaptation is the only option.	由于上述趋势都是不可逆转的，因此适应是唯一的选择。


Robotics has already made significant inroads in electronics assembly, with sewing trades, traditionally many countries’ first entry point to the global trading system, likely to come next.	机器人技术在电子装配业已经实现了长足的发展，而缝纫行业——一直以来都是很多国家加入全球贸易体系的敲门砖——则可能是下一个目标。


As this trend continues, the imperative to build supply chains based on the location of relatively immobile and cost-effective labor will wane, with production moving closer to the final market.	随着这种趋势持续，逐渐地也没什么必要将供应链安置在位置相对固定且具备成本效益的劳动力聚集区周围，而是向终端市场靠拢。


Adidas, for example, is already building a factory in Germany, where robots will produce high-end athletic shoes, and is planning a second one in the United States.	比如阿迪达斯就已经在德国建厂并安装生产高档运动鞋的机器人生产线，同时计划在美国开设第二家。


Given all of this, developing countries need to act now to adapt their growth strategies.	有鉴及此，发展中国家需要立即采取行动调整自身增长战略。


A sensible framework for doing so must account for several key factors.	而制定一个合理框架则必须考虑下列几个关键因素：


First, the problems in advanced countries – from slow economic growth to political uncertainty – are likely to persist, reducing potential growth everywhere for an extended period.	首先，发达国家所面临的问题——从经济放缓到政治上的不确定性——可能会继续存在，在一段较长的时期内压低全球各地的增长潜力。


In this context, developing countries must not succumb to the temptation to try to boost demand through unsustainable means, such as the accumulation of excess debt.	在这个背景下，发展中国家千万不能尝试那种试图利用积累过度债务这类不可持续手段来提振需求的做法。


Instead, developing countries, particularly those in the earlier stages of economic development, must find new external markets for their goods, by maximizing trade opportunities with their counterparts in the developing world, many of which have considerable purchasing power.	相反，发展中国家（尤其是那些处于经济发展早期阶段的国家）必须为本国商品找到新的外部市场，并尽力拓展与发展中国家之间的贸易机会，因此其中许多国家其实具有相当强大的购买力。


While such demand will surely not offset the drop in advanced-country demand completely, it can help to soften the blow.	虽然这种需求肯定无法完全抵消先进国家的需求下降，但却有助于减轻对经济的冲击。


Second, investment, both public and private, remains a powerful growth engine.	第二，公共和私人的投资仍然是一个强有力的增长引擎。


In economies with excess productive capacity, targeted investment can yield a double benefit, generating short-run demand and boosting growth and productivity thereafter.	对于那些产能过剩的经济体来说，有针对性的投资可以产生双重效益，在激发短期需求的同时又促进未来的经济增长和生产力。


Given this, shortfalls in investment that promises high social and private returns must be reduced, and even eliminated.	因此应该尽量补足那些能实现高社会和个人回报的投资项目资金缺口，甚至完全填平。


These growth- and productivity-enhancing investments should be financed primarily from domestic savings, though some can also be financed with debt.	这些提高增长和生产率的投资应主要由国内储蓄来融资，当然发行债务也是一个选项。


Long-term, stable infrastructure investments can be financed at least partly by international development institutions.	而长期稳定的基础设施投资可以至少部分地由国际发展机构提供经费。


Third, it is critical to manage the capital account in a way that protects and enhances the real economy’s growth potential.	第三以保护并提高实体经济增长潜力的方式来管理资本账户至关重要。


Large inflows of capital from countries with low interest rates can easily push up exchange rates, putting the tradable part of the economy under pressure.	来自低利率国家的大规模资本流入可以很轻易地推高汇率，令经济中的贸易部门压力陡增。


At the same time, the prospect of a capital-flow reversal adds risk, deters investment, and can produce sudden credit-tightening events.	同时，资本流向逆转的预期也会增加风险，阻碍投资，并可能导致突发信贷紧缩。


In this context, selective capital controls and careful reserve management can help to stabilize the balance of payments and ensure that the terms of trade do not change too fast to be offset by productivity growth.	在这种情况下，有选择性的资本管制和小心谨慎的储备管理可以有助于稳定国际收支平衡，并确保进出口交换比价（terms of trade）不会变化得太快以致被生产力增长所抵消。


In fact, successful developing countries were pursuing such policies even before the global economic crisis hit.	事实上，成功的发展中国家甚至在全球金融危机发生之前就采取这类政策了。


Fourth, a realistic approach to the digital revolution is needed.	第四，需要运用加入这场数字革命的现实性手段。


On one hand, developing countries should recognize that disruption, while happening fast, will not render their growth models obsolete overnight.	一方面，发展中国家应该认识到虽然数字技术的破坏性影响不断加剧，却也不可能在一夜之间淘汰它们的增长模式。


China’s continued growth and rising household income are creating opportunities for lower-income economies in low-cost manufacturing.	例如中国的持续增长和不断扩大的家庭收入就为低收入经济体的低成本制造业创造了机会。


On the other hand, developing countries must accept the inevitability of changes to their growth models caused by digital technologies.	另一方面，发��中国家必须认识到对他们的增长模式必然会在数字技术的影响下产生变革。


Instead of viewing these changes as a threat, and trying to resist them, developing economies should be getting ahead of them, by embracing disruptive innovations.	但与其将此视为一种威胁并试图抵抗，发展中经济体应该通过拥抱颠覆性的创新来接纳这一趋势。


This means investing in the capacity – physical and human – to support their use.	这意味着投资——包括物质和人才——去发展支持应用这类技术的能力。


Beyond upgrading manufacturing, developing countries should be preparing for the shift toward services that they will inevitably undergo as incomes rise (though the precise timing is hard to predict).	除了升级制造业之外，发展中国家应准备好实现向服务业的转型，因为随着收入的增加这是不可避免的 （尽管准确时间很难预测）。


Indeed, they should be seeking ways to exploit opportunities to boost their trade in services, much like India and the Philippines have done.	事实上各国应寻求各种机会去提升自身的服务业贸易水平，就像印度和菲律宾所做的那样。


Fifth, the distribution of gains from economic growth cannot be ignored.	第五，不要忽视了经济增长收益的分配状况。


The advanced economies tried that, and the result has been rising political polarization, intensifying anti-establishment sentiment, declining policy coherence, and weakening social cohesion.	发达经济体在这方面犯过错误，导致政治两极分裂、反政府情绪高涨，政策一致性以及社会凝聚力下降。


In a low-growth environment, in particular, developing countries cannot afford to make the same mistake.	尤其是在经济低增长环境中，发展中国家是无法承担犯同样错误所付出的代价的。


Sixth, it is important to establish sustainable growth patterns early on.	第六，是重要的是尽早建立可持续的增长模式。


A “green” approach would not only stimulate additional growth; it would also be likely to increase the quality of growth, not to mention the lives of ordinary people.	“绿色”的手段不但可刺激额外的增长;还能提高增长的质量以及普通人民的生活。


Moreover, it will lead to a far more resilient economy in the long run.	此外将在长期内构建远更具回复力的经济。


Finally, entrepreneurial activity is vital to translate economic potential into reality.	最后，创业活动是将经济潜力变为现实的重要步骤。


Policies that support such activity, such as by removing obstacles to new business creation and enhancing financing opportunities, cannot be left out of growth strategies.	支持这类活动的政策——如通过消除创造新企业和加强融资机会的障碍——不应被排除在增长战略之外。


Opening channels for flows of information, ideas, expertise, and talent from abroad can only enhance these efforts.	开放国外信息、 理念、 专长和人才的流动渠道也会起到推动作用。


Developing economies may not have much control over the headwinds that they face today, but that does not mean that they are powerless.	发展中经济体或许无法掌控当前的这些挑战，但这并不意味着它们对此就无能为力。


Much can be done not just to sustain moderate growth, but also to secure a more prosperous and resilient future.	还有很多措施可以实施，不仅为了维持温和的增长，还要确保一个更繁荣、 抗冲击能力更强的未来。


A New Direction for Global Health	全球健康的新方向


NEW YORK – It is easy to be discouraged about the state of international cooperation today, but global health remains an area in which the world has come together to do significant good.	纽约——今天的国际合作状况很容易令人感到失望，但全球健康依然是各国合作取得显著进展的领域。


Over the last dozen years, international initiatives have delivered HIV/AIDS treatment to millions, expanded childhood immunization, and spurred a dramatic increase in global support for addressing other health challenges, from malaria to maternal health.	过去十几年来，国际行动已经为数百万人提供了抗艾滋病毒/艾滋病治疗、拓展了儿童免疫范围并推动各国大幅增加对从疟疾到产妇保健等其他健康挑战的全球支持。


International support for global health is an investment in developing countries’ future prosperity and the wellbeing of their people.	对全球健康事业的国际支持是投资于发展中国家的未来繁荣和民众福祉。


It is an investment that the world’s richest countries can well afford.	这样的投资全球富裕国家完全能够承担得起。


For example, the United States is the leading contributor of global health aid, which accounted for just 0.23% of US spending in 2013.	比方说，美国是全球健康援助资金的主要赞助国，2013年上述投资在美国总支出中仅占0.


The returns on that investment have been remarkable.	23%的份额。 但投资回报却令人叹为观止。


Child mortality is plunging.	儿童死亡率大幅下降。


Millions who would have otherwise perished from HIV/AIDS are still alive.	数百万得不到救治将死于艾滋病毒/艾滋病的患者生命依然在延续。


Countries that were aid recipients are increasingly self-sufficient – and have become better trade and strategic partners as a result.	受援国越来越能实现自给自足——并有能力开展更好的贸易和战略合作。


But the health needs of low- and middle-income countries are now shifting.	但中低收入国家的健康需求正在悄然发生变化。


Dramatic changes in urbanization, global trade, and consumer markets – which occurred over decades in wealthy countries – are happening at a faster rate, and at a much larger scale, in still-poor countries.	城市化、全球贸易和消费者市场的急剧变化——富裕国家的类似变化发生在数十年前——正在以更大规模、更快速度在依旧贫困的国家上演。


These trends have brought substantial health benefits, such as better sanitation and increased food production, but have given rise to significant challenges as well.	上述趋势带来了卫生设施改善和粮食产量增加等可观的健康福利，但同时也带来了巨大的挑战。


Ebola is one high-profile example.	埃博拉就是个举世闻名的例子。


Prior to this year, Ebola had killed fewer than 2,000 people, all in Central Africa, since it was first identified in 1976.	截至去年底，死于埃博拉的人数不足2，000人，而且从1976年该病毒最初发现开始，死者全部集中在中非地区。


The virus has killed more than three times that number in 2014, with enough cases spreading internationally to dominate nightly news broadcasts and spook voters in recent US state and local elections.	2014年死于埃博拉的人数却已超过原有数据的3倍，埃博拉国际感染病例充斥着晚间新闻，令最近美国州及地方选举的选民们感到寝食不安。


A major reason is the growth of small- and medium-size cities.	主要原因是中小型城市的发展。


Urbanization is increasing in West Africa at a rate of 3% per year (compared to 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, in North America and Europe).	城市化在西非以每年3%的速度递增（相比北美和欧洲的0. 2% 和 0.


The result has been the proliferation of settlements of a million people or fewer living with limited public-health infrastructure.	3%）。 结果导致百万人以下级别的定居点迅速扩张，但相关公共卫生基础设施却非常有限。


These cramped cities are ideal incubators for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases like Ebola.	如此拥挤的城市是埃博拉等新型传染病理想的孵化器。


With greater trade and travel to the region, outbreaks are likely to spread before international containment can coalesce.	随着地区贸易增长和流动人口增加，疫情很可能在国际控制措施合围前快速发展。


Another example of changing global health needs is the stunningly fast increase of heart disease, cancers, and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in low- and middle-income countries.	国际健康需求变化的另一个例子是心脏病、癌症和其他非传染性疾病（NCD）在中低收入国家增长极快。


Once thought to be challenges for affluent countries alone, these diseases have quickly become the leading cause of death and disability in developing regions, killing nearly eight million people before their 60th birthdays in 2013.	上述疾病曾被认为仅仅是富裕国家才需要面对的挑战，但今天已经成为发展中国家最主要的致死及致残原因，仅2013年就导致近8百万人逝于60岁生日之前。


In a recent report sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, we highlight the contrast between rising rates of heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and other NCDs in developing countries and the success of international efforts on HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases.	在由外交关系委员会资助的一份近期报告中，我们重点强调心脏病、癌症、糖尿病和其他非传染性疾病在发展中国家不断上升和国际抗击艾滋病毒/艾滋病及其他传染性疾病所取得重大成就间的对比。


From 1990 to 2010, death and disability from NCDs in low-income countries increased 300% faster than the rate of decline in infectious diseases.	从1990到2010年，中低收入国家非传染性疾病的致死及致残率比传染性疾病的下降速度快300%。


Some of the same factors at work in the recent Ebola outbreak drive the high rates of NCDs.	近期导致埃博拉疫情背后的某些因素同样驱动着非传染性疾病高企的发病率。


Inhabitants of densely packed urban areas in emerging economies often face both indoor and outdoor pollution, and are less likely to have access to adequate nutrition.	新兴经济体密集城市住宅区的居民往往要面对室内室外污染，而且很难摄取到充足的营养。


Most health systems in these countries are not built for chronic or preventive care and lack basic consumer protections.	上述国家绝大多数医疗系统缺乏慢性病和预防保健的经验，也欠缺最基本的消费者保护。


From 1970 to 2000, cigarette consumption tripled in developing countries.	发展中国家吸烟率从1970到2000年增长了两倍。


Diseases that in high-income countries are preventable, like cervical cancer, or treatable, such as diabetes, are often death sentences in developing countries.	而在高收入国家可以预防的子宫颈癌或可以治愈的糖尿病等疾病在发展中国家往往与死刑无异。


International investments have not yet adjusted to changing global health needs, especially with respect to NCDs.	国际投资并未适应不断变化的全球健康需求，特别是在非传染性疾病领域。 2010年，因艾滋病毒/艾滋病致死或致残而损失的单位年寿命对应69.


In 2010, $69.38 of international aid was spent for each year lost to death or disability from HIV/AIDS (as measured in disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs), $16.27 was spent per DALY lost to malaria, and $5.42 per DALY lost to poor maternal, newborn, and child health.	疟疾扣除伤残因素后的寿命年数所对应的国际援助是每年16. 27美元，而产妇、新生儿及儿童健康问题扣除伤残因素后的寿命年数所对应的国际援助是每年5.


But only $0.09 was spent per DALY lost to heart disease, cancer, and other NCDs.	但心脏病、癌症和其他非传染性疾病扣除伤残因素后的寿命年数所对应的国际援助却仅有每年0. 09美元。


Meanwhile, the emerging NCD epidemic is worsening.	与此同时，新型非传染病疫情正在不断恶化。


Indeed, the World Economic Forum is predicting $21.3 trillion in losses from these diseases in developing countries by 2030.	事实上，世界经济论坛目前预测到2030年发展中国家因上述疾病造成的损失高达21. 3万亿美元。


Yet progress on NCDs is possible.	但在非传染性疾病领域完全可以取得进展。


Despite much higher rates of obesity in high-income countries, premature death and disability from heart disease, cancers, and other NCDs have declined substantially.	虽然高收入国家肥胖率一直攀升，但因心脏病、癌症及其他非传染性疾病造成的早亡和残疾已经表现出明显的下降趋势。


Most of the tools and policies underlying this success are cheap, but not widely implemented in developing countries.	这一成就背后的大部分工具和政策都成本低廉，但在发展中国家并未广泛采用。


They include low-cost drugs to reduce heart attacks, vaccines to prevent cervical cancer, and the same tobacco taxes and advertising rules that dramatically cut smoking rates throughout Europe and the US.	其中包括减少心脏病发作的低成本药物，以及在欧美大幅降低吸烟率的相同的烟草税和广告规则。


Pilot programs have successfully integrated these tools and policies into donor-funded programs on HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases in low- and middle-income countries.	某些试点项目已经将这些工具和政策成功纳入中低收入国家由捐款人赞助的艾滋病毒/艾滋病及其他传染性疾病项目。


If, over the next decade, low- and middle-income countries could improve NCD prevention and treatment at the same rate as the average rich country from 2000 to 2013, they would avert more than five million deaths.	如果未来十年，中低收入国家能以富裕国家2000到2013年的速度改善非传染性疾病的预防和治疗环境，五百万人的死亡将能够得以避免。


That return is comparable to the most successful global health investments in HIV and childhood immunization, and it is an investment worth making for the same reason: a peaceful, inclusive global economy presupposes healthier, more productive lives.	该回报率接近在艾滋病毒和儿童免疫领域最成功的全球健康投资，而且因为同样的原因应该是非常值得的投资项目：和平包容的全球经济需要以健康、高效的生活为条件。


Why Economists Put Health First	为何经济学家把


PALO ALTO – In an ideal world, everyone, everywhere, would access the health services they need without having to pay more than they could afford.	帕洛阿尔托—在理想世界中，不论是谁，不论在哪里，你都能获得你所需要的卫生服务，并且不需要支付超过你支付能力之外的部分。


But is “health for all” – also known as universal health coverage – really possible, not just in rich countries, but in the poorest countries, too?	但这一“所有人的健康”——亦称全民医疗覆盖——真的是不论富裕国家还是最贫穷国家都可行的吗？


In short, yes.	简单的回答是“是的”。


That’s why we joined hundreds of fellow economists in almost 50 countries to urge leaders to prioritize investments in universal health coverage.	因此，我们与来自近50个国家的数百位经济学家同侪一起敦促领导人们将全民医疗覆盖投资作为日程重点。


And the broader impetus behind this Economists’ Declaration, convened by The Rockefeller Foundation and now with more than 300 signatures, has placed global health and development at a historic crossroads.	由洛克菲勒基金会召集、现已征集到300多个签名的《经济学家宣言》（Economists’ Declaration）背后的更广泛的动力将全球卫生与发展推向了一个历史十字路口。


In September, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a new set of 15-year global goals to guide the world’s efforts to end poverty, foster inclusive prosperity, and secure a healthy planet by 2030.	9月份，联合国大会开始实施新的15年全球目标作为世界在2030年结束贫困、塑造包容性繁荣、确保健康地球的措施指引。


As world leaders prepare to enact the most ambitious global to-do list yet – the Sustainable Development Goals will be launched on January 1 – deciding where to begin may seem a daunting task.	在全世界领导人准备实施最有雄心的全球代办事项清单之际——可持续发展目标将从1月1日开始开始——决定从哪里开始也许是一个艰巨的任务。


For economists, however, the answer is clear: The next chapter of development strategy should assign a high priority to better health – and must leave no one behind.	但是，对经济学家来说，答案是显而易见的：发展战略的新篇章必须把重中之重放在改善医疗上——并且不能让任何一个人落后。


Reaching everyone with high-quality, essential health services without the threat of financial ruin is, first and foremost, the right thing to do.	让所有人都能获得高质量基本卫生服务而不必面临财务困境首先是一项正确的事业。


Health and survival are basic values to virtually every individual.	健康和生存是几乎所有人的基本价值。


Furthermore, unlike other valuable goods, such as food, they cannot be supplied without deliberate social policy.	此外，和粮食等其他宝贵商品不同，它们无法在没有成熟社会政策的情况下实现供给。


The fact that “preventable deaths” remain common in low- and middle-income countries is a symptom of broken or under-resourced health-care delivery systems, not a lack of medical know-how.	“可预防死亡”在中低收入国家仍然司空见惯，这一事实表明我们的医疗体系低劣不堪或者资源不足，而不意味着我们缺少医学知识。


If we increase investments in health now, by 2030 we can be that much closer to a world in which no parent loses a child – and no child loses a parent – to preventable causes.	如果从现在开始增加卫生投资，那么到2030年，我们可以大幅接近所有家长都不会因为可预防原因失去孩子——所有孩子也不会因为可预防原因失去一位双亲的目标。


Universal health coverage is also smart.	全民医疗覆盖也是明智的。


When people are healthy and financially stable, their economies are stronger and more prosperous.	当人们身体健康、财务稳定时，他们的经济就会更强大、更繁荣。


And, with benefits ten times greater than initial costs, investing in health first may ultimately pay for the rest of the new global development agenda.	首先投资于卫生将产生十倍于初始成本的收益，并且有可能成为其他新全球发展日程的最终付款人。


So the question is not whether universal health coverage is valuable, but how to make it a reality.	因此，问题不在于全民医疗覆盖是否有价值，而在于如何让它成为现实。


More than a hundred countries have taken steps down this path; in the process, they have revealed important opportunities and strategies to accelerate progress toward the goal of health for all.	100多个国家朝着这一方向采取了措施； 在此过程中，他们揭示了加速迈向全民健康目标的重要机会和战略。


In particular, we believe that three areas – technology, incentives, and seemingly “non-health” investments – have the potential to advance universal health coverage dramatically.	特别是，我们认为三个领域——技术、激励和看似“非卫生”投资——都有可能大大推动全民医疗覆盖。


First, technology is fast becoming a game changer, especially in developing countries, where the gap in access to health care is the widest.	首先，技术正在快速成为局面改变因素，特别是在医疗普及差距最大的发展中国家。


In Kenya, which already leads the world in mobile money through “m-PESA,” an upsurge in telemedicine is enabling rural patients and health practitioners to interact, through video conferencing, with staff in Kenya’s main hospitals – thereby increasing quality of care at very little cost.	肯尼亚通过“m-PESA”而在世界移动资金（mobile money）方面取得了领先地位，该国远程医疗的爆发让农村患者和卫生工作者得以通过视频会议与肯尼亚大医院的医护人员交流，从而以极为低廉的成本改善了医疗质量。


The m-PESA Foundation, in partnership with the African Medical Research Foundation, has also begun implementing online training of community health volunteers and complementing these trainings with bulk SMS/WhatsApp group messages to keep the group connected and share important updates.	m-PESA基金会与非洲医学研究基金会合作，还开始实施社区卫生志愿者在线培训，并大量利用SMS/WhatsApp群消息完善培训，让该群体保持联系，分享重要更新。


Investments in high-value, low-cost technologies will help us achieve more with every dollar.	高价值低成本技术投资有助于我们增加每一美元投入的产出。


Harnessing the power of incentives is another way to accelerate health reforms.	利用激励的力量是加快卫生改革的另一种方法。


This can and should be done without forcing the poor to pay for health-care services at the point of delivery.	激励可以也应该在不必非要穷人在获得医疗服务时付费的情况下实现。


For example, when the state pays the private sector based on outcomes (for example, the number or share of vaccinated children), both accountability and results have been known to improve.	比如，但国家根据结果（比如儿童接种疫苗的数量或比例）向私人部门支付时，我们了解到问责性和结果都得到了改善。


Voucher programs for reproductive health care in Uganda and Kenya are now providing access to quality services from the private sector.	乌干达和肯尼亚的生殖健康券计划正在为人们提供获得私人部门高质量服务的途径。


Finally, building resilient health-care systems – flexible enough to bend, but not break, in the face of shocks – means improving other public goods that are closely linked to human health.	最后，构建高弹性医疗体系——在面临冲击时能够弯曲而不断裂——意味着改善其他与人类健康密切相关的公共品。


These include clean water and sanitation, and roads and infrastructure that enable emergency care and delivery of services.	这些公共品包括清洁水和卫生间设施，以及让紧急救护服务得以实现的道路和基础设施。


Health systems do not exist in a vacuum, and if we are serious about sustainable development, it is time to understand that investments in complementary systems are “trade-ons” not trade-offs.	卫生体系并不存在于真空中，如果我们认真对待可持续发展问题，那么现在就应该明白补充性系统的投资是一种“加成”（trade-on），而不是“权衡”（trade-off）。


We should be wary of viewing medicine as the only path to better health.	我们应该警惕将医药视为通往更健康的唯一道路的看法。


The success of the world’s development goals hinges on our ability to reach the poorest and most marginalized populations, who continue to bear the brunt of death and disability worldwide.	世界发展目标能否成功取决于我们覆盖最贫穷、最边缘化人口的能力，他们仍然是全世界最容易致死和致残的人群。


A natural progression of the status quo will not be enough to reach them.	在现状基础上自然进步无法覆盖他们。


Instead, we must push public health systems beyond their usual boundaries by investing in and promoting new technologies, sharpening incentives, and recognizing that health systems do not exist in a vacuum.	相反，我们必须投资和推广新技术，理顺激励，认识到卫生体系无法存在于真空中，以此将公共卫生体系推广到常规边界之外。


Universal health coverage is right, smart, and overdue.	全民医疗覆盖是正确的、明智的、早就应该实施的。


To achieve a world where everyone’s health needs are met and nobody is trapped in poverty, our leaders must heed this message and act on it.	要想实现所有人的卫生需要都能获得满足、没有人受困于贫困的世界，我们的领导人必须认识到这一点，并据此行动。


Could a Basic Income Help Poor Countries?	基本收入能有助于穷国吗？


BERKELEY – The old idea of recasting the welfare state by instituting an unconditional universal basic income has lately been capturing imaginations across the political spectrum.	伯克利—将无条件全民基本收入制度化，以此改造福利国家，这一古老的概念最近成为政治界的时髦想象。


On the left, it is regarded as a simple and potentially comprehensive antidote to poverty.	左翼将它视为一个简单的、具有潜在完整性的减贫良药。


On the right, it is viewed as a means to demolish complex welfare bureaucracies while recognizing the need for some social transfer obligations in a way that doesn’t weaken incentives significantly.	右翼将它视为打破复杂的福利官僚、同时兼顾一些社会转移义务，并且不会显著减弱激励的方法。


It also provides some assurance for the dreaded future when robots may replace workers in many sectors.	而在机器人可能取代诸多行业的工人时，它又为惨淡的未来提供了一些保证。


But could it actually work?	但它真的管用吗？


So far, the question has been addressed primarily in advanced countries – and the figures do not look promising.	目前，这个问题主要在发达国家被着手解决——并且数字看来情况不妙。


Though Canada, Finland, and the Netherlands are reportedly now considering the idea of a basic income, some prominent advanced-country economists warn that it is blatantly unaffordable.	尽管据信加拿大、芬兰和荷兰目前都在考虑基本收入的概念，但一些著名的发达国家经济学家警告这完全是不可承受的。


In the United States, for example, an annual handout of $10,000 to every adult – less than the official poverty threshold for a single person – would exhaust almost all federal tax revenue, under the current system.	比如，在美国，在现行制度下，向每位成年人每年发放10,000美元救济——低于官方单身贫困线——就将耗尽几乎所有联邦税收入。


Perhaps it was that kind of arithmetic that spurred Swiss voters to reject the idea overwhelmingly in a referendum earlier this month.	也许正是出于这样的算计，让瑞士选民在本月早些时候的全民公决中一边倒地拒绝了这一概念。


But what about low- or middle-income countries?	但中低收入国情况如何？


In fact, a basic income may very well be fiscally feasible – not to mention socially desirable – in places where the poverty threshold is low and existing social safety nets are both threadbare and expensive to administer.	事实上，在贫困线较低、现有社会安全网管理起来事倍功半的地方，基本收入在财政上很有可能是可行的——从社会角度更是令人向往。


Consider India, where about one-fifth of the population live below the official poverty line, which is itself very low.	以印度为例，印度有五分之一左右的人口生活在官方贫困线以下，而官方贫困线是很低的。


While citizens with so-called “below-poverty-line” cards are eligible for government relief, surveys show that about half of the poor do not have the card – while about one-third of the non-poor do.	拥有所谓的“低于贫困线”卡片的公民有资格获得政府救济，但调查显示大约一半穷人没有这张卡片——而有大约非贫困者拥有这张卡片。


Many other developing countries face similar problems, with benefits intended for the poor accruing to better-off people, while many of the intended recipients miss out, owing to a combination of political and administrative collusion and genuine structural challenges.	许多其他发展中国家也面临类似的问题，以扶贫为初衷的福利最后落入了境况较好的人手中，而许多福利发放对象却没有获得福利，原因既有政治和行政勾结，也有真正的结构挑战。


Means-testing can be very difficult in an environment where jobs are concentrated in the informal sector, primarily in self-employment, without any formal account-keeping or income data.	如果就业岗位集中在非正式部门（主要是自雇者），没有任何正式的账户记录或收入数据，收入调查将很难进行。


Under those circumstances, identifying the poor can be costly, corrupt, complicated, and controversial.	在这样的情况下，识别穷人可能成本高昂、腐败、复杂、引起争议。


An unconditional basic income could eliminate much of this mess.	无条件基本收入可以消除大量此类混乱。


The question is whether governments can afford it, without increasing the burden on taxpayers and undermining economic incentives.	问题在于政府是否能够承受而不需要增加纳税人负担和破坏经济激励。


In India, the answer could be yes.	在印度，答案也许是肯定的。


If each of India’s 1.25 billion citizens received an annual basic income of 10,000 rupees ($149) – about three-quarters of the official poverty line – the total payout would come to about 10% of GDP.	如果印度12. 5亿人口没人都获得每年10,000卢比（149美元）的基本收入——大约相当于官方贫困县的四分之三——则总支出将达到GDP的10%左右。


The National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in Delhi estimates that every year the Indian government doles out significantly more than that in implicit or explicit subsidies to better-off sections of the population, not to mention tax exemptions to the corporate sector.	德里国家公共财政与政策研究所估算，印度政府每年向境况较好群体发放的暗补和明补便远高于这一数字，更不用说公司部门的税收减免了。


By discontinuing some or all of these subsidies – which, of course, do not include expenditures in areas like health, education, nutrition, rural and urban development programs, and environmental protection – the government could secure the funds to offer everyone, rich and poor, a reasonable basic income.	只要取消一些或全部这些补贴——当然，卫生、教育、营养、农村和城市发展计划以及环境保护支出除外——政府就可以确保向所有人——无论穷富——发放合理的基本收入的资金。


If the government lacks the political courage to eliminate enough subsidies, two options remain.	如果政府缺少取消足够的补贴的政治勇气，那么还有两个选择。


Either it could take steps to boost tax revenues, such as by improving property-tax collections (currently extremely low), or it could reduce the level of any basic income it introduces.	它可以采取措施提高税收收入，比如改善房地产税（目前极低），也可以降低引入和基本收入水平。


What governments should not do is fund a basic-income scheme with the money from other key social-welfare programs.	政府不应该做得是用其他社会福利项目的资金来支持基本收入机制。


While a basic income can replace some egregiously dysfunctional welfare spending, it cannot substitute for, say, public education and health care, preschool nutrition programs, or employment guarantees in public works.	进本收入可以取代一些被极端扭曲的福利支出，但它无法代替（比如）公共教育和医疗、学前营养计划或公职岗位就业保障。


After all, the basic income would still be severely limited, and there is no way to ensure that individuals would allocate enough of it to achieve socially desirable education, health, or nutrition levels.	毕竟，基本收入仍然十分有限，也没有办法确保个人会将其中足够多的部分用于实现有利于社会的教育、医疗和营养水平。


If these limitations are taken into account, there is little reason to think that a basic-income program could not work in developing countries.	如果将这些局限性考虑在内，没有理由认为基本收入计划不能在发展中国家起作用。


Indeed, the most frequently heard arguments against such schemes are far from convincing.	事实上，最常见的反对基本收入机制的观点根本没有说服力。


The main drawback, according to critics, is that a basic income would weaken the motivation to work, particularly among the poor.	根据批评者的说法，主要的弊端在于基本收入会削弱工作动机，特别是对于穷人而言。


Given that the value of work extends beyond income, the logic goes, this could pose a serious problem.	其逻辑认为，由于工作的价值不止于收入，因此这可能带来严重的问题。


European social democrats, for example, worry that a basic income could undermine the worker solidarity that underpins current social-insurance programs.	比如，欧洲社会民主派担心基本收入可能破坏作为当前社会保险计划基础的工人凝聚力。


But, in developing countries, workers in the dominant informal sector are already excluded from social-insurance programs.	但是，在发展中国家，占主导地位的非正式部门的工人已然被排除在社会保障计划之外。


And no feasible basic income would be large enough, at least for now, to enable people simply to leave work behind.	并且可行的基本收入必然不足以（至少现在如此）让人们完全将工作抛诸脑后。


In fact, among the poorest groups, basic incomes would enhance the dignity- and solidarity-enhancing effects of work, by easing some of the pressure on people – particularly women – who are now vastly overworked.	事实上，在最贫困群体中，基本收入能缓解目前严重超负荷工作的人的一些压力——特别是女性，从而增强工作的尊严和凝聚力增强效应。


Instead of constantly fearing for their livelihoods, self-employed people, such as small-scale producers and vendors, could engage in more strategic decision-making, taking advantage of their enhanced bargaining power against traders, middlemen, creditors, and landlords.	自雇人员，如小型生产商和销售商，不必时时为生计担心，能够进行更具战略性的决策，增强他们面对贸易商、中间人、债权人和地主的讨价还价能力。


The final argument against basic income is that the poor will use the money to fund personally or socially detrimental activities, such as gambling and alcohol consumption.	反对基本收入的最后一个理由是穷人将把钱用于对个人或社会不利的行为，如赌博和酗酒。


But experiences with direct cash transfers in a range of countries, including Ecuador, India, Mexico, and Uganda, have not provided much evidence of such misuse; in general, the cash is spent on worthwhile goods and services.	但包括厄瓜多尔、印度、墨西哥和乌干达在内的多国的直接现金转移支付经验并没显示出多少这些不当用途的证据； 总体而言，现金被花在了有价值的商品和服务上。


Proposals for a universal basic income, fancied by utopian socialists and libertarians, may be premature in the advanced countries.	空想社会主义和自由主义者所构想的全民基本收入方案也许在发达国家还操之过急。


But such schemes should not be dismissed in the developing world, where conditions are such that they could offer an affordable alternative to administratively unwieldy and ineffective welfare programs.	但这一机制在发展中国家中不应该被否定，发展中国家的条件决定了它们可以抛弃管理不善、效率低下的福利计划而另辟蹊径。 基本收入不是万灵丹；


Basic incomes are no panacea; but for overworked developing-country citizens living in extreme poverty, they would certainly be a relief.	但对于生活在极端贫困之中的超负荷工作的发展中国家公民而言，基本收入显然可以让他们喘口气。


Health-Care Innovation in the Global South	全球南部的医疗创新


DHAKA – Children die from preventable and treatable conditions like diarrhea and pneumonia every day, with the developing world accounting for the majority of victims.	达卡——每天都有儿童死于可预防和治疗的腹泻和肺炎等疾病，这些受害者绝大多数来自发展中国家。