Having been targeted first by Trump, and then by former White House Chief Strategist and current Breitbart News Executive Chairman Steve Bannon, Flake might not even have defeated a Republican primary challenger.	在被特朗普和前白宫首席战略家及现任布莱巴特新闻网执行主席史蒂夫·班农一再攻击后，弗莱克可能甚至无法击败一名共和党的初选挑战者。


Granted, no one is obliged to submit himself to the slings and arrows of electoral politics.	的确，没有人有义务承受选举政治的厄运和灾难。


And no one can be blamed for not wanting to participate in the poisonous politics of Washington today.	也没有人应当为不愿参与现在华盛顿的有毒政治而遭受指责。


As a citizen, I thank Flake for his service in Congress.	作为一名普通公民，我感谢弗莱克在国会期间所提供的服务。


But if he wants us to believe that his speech and decision to resign are in the service of the country, and based on principle, then he needs to explain what that principle is.	但如果他希望我们相信其演讲和辞职决定为的是坚持原则和捍卫国家利益，那么他需要向我们说明这个原则究竟是什么。


According to Immanuel Kant’s categorical imperative, principled action is that action which, if emulated by all others, would create a world in which we all want to live.	按照伊曼纽尔·康德的绝对律令，符合原则的行为如果被其他人所模仿，将会创造一个我们都愿意在其中生活的世界。


Does Flake want to live in a world in which all lawmakers who disagree with Trump have already stood up, spoken out vigorously, and left office?	弗莱克是否希望生活在一个所有与特朗普持不同意见的立法者都站出来大声疾呼，而后放弃公职的世界？


It isn’t clear whether Flake is calling for a boycott of electoral politics, or merely warning others not to run in races they might not win.	我们不清楚弗莱克是在呼吁所有人抵制选举政治，抑或仅仅是警告其他人不要参与可能无法获胜的竞争。


Either way, somebody will replace Flake in the Senate.	无论是哪一种，都会有人取代弗莱克的参议院席位。


So, it is worth asking if he thinks his successor will be better suited than he is to carry out the critically important duties of public service.	因此，我们应当探究他是否认为他的继任者履行公共服务的重要职责会比他更为适合？


In his 2017 book, Conscience of a Conservative, Flake boldly asserts that “we have become so estranged from our principles that we no longer know what principle is.”	在2017年著作保守者的良心中，弗莱克曾大胆断言“我们已经疏远了本来的原则，以至于我们已经不晓得什么是原则了。


Should this now be read as an unwitting confession that he has lost his own moral bearings?	”这是否现在应当被视为其下意识的内心独白，承认自己已经失去了道德原则？


In his speech, Flake cited the Republican president Theodore Roosevelt as the model of “conscience and principle” to which he aspires.	在演讲中，弗莱克将共和党总统西奥多·罗斯福视为他心目中“良知和原则”的典范。


But those who have read Roosevelt know that he would not have walked away from today’s fight.	但那些了解罗斯福的人应当知道他不会逃离今天的战斗。


“It is not the critic who counts,” Roosevelt said in the speech “Citizenship in a Republic,” which he delivered at the Sorbonne in Paris in April 1910.	“重要的不是批评能否成功，”罗斯福在名为共和国公民的一次演讲中说，这次演讲是1910年4月他在巴黎的索邦大学发表的。


“The credit belongs to the man in the arena,” Roosevelt continued, “who spends himself in a worthy cause, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”	“荣誉归属于参与竞技的人，”罗斯福还说，“因为献身于有价值的事业，而且就算事情糟糕到极点，如果最终失败，至少他在失败前曾经勇敢尝试过，这样他就永远不会和那些不敢经历成败的胆小冷漠的灵魂为伍。 ”


Now, that is a principle upon which the United States, and any republic, should stand.	现在，这恰恰就是美国以及任何共和国应当遵守的原则。


Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve	特朗普的美联储


CAMBRIDGE – With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the United States Federal Reserve Board, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency.	坎布里奇—特朗普任命杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）为下一任美联储主席，这也许是他担任总统以来所做的最重要的决定。


It is a sane and sober choice that heralds short-term continuity in Fed interest-rate policy, and perhaps a simpler and cleaner approach to regulatory policy.	这是一个理智清醒的选择，表明美联储的货币政策在短期将保持延续性，也表明美联储监管政策或将更加简单清晰。


Although Powell is not a PhD economist like current Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, he has used his years as an “ordinary” governor at the Fed to gain a deep knowledge of the key issues he will face.	尽管鲍威尔不如现任美联储主席耶伦（Janet Yellen）和她的前任伯南克（Ben Bernanke）那样是一位拥有博士学位的经济学家，但凭借多年担任美联储“普通”理事的经验，他积累了关于他将面对的重要问题的深度知识。


But make no mistake: the institution Powell will now head rules the global financial system.	但不要搞错了：鲍威尔现在将要执掌的机构，主宰着全球金融体系。


All other central bankers, finance ministers, and even presidents run a distant second.	所有其他央行行长、财政部长甚至国家首脑，主宰力都远不如他。


If that seems hyperbolic, it is only because most of us don’t really pay attention to the Fed on a day-to-day basis.	如果说这看上去有些夸张，那只是因为我们大部分人其实并没有日常紧盯着美联储。


When the Fed gets it right, price stability reigns, unemployment remains low, and output hums along.	当美联储所做正确，物价就保持稳定，失业保持低位，产出源源不断。


But “getting it right” is not always easy, and when the Fed gets it wrong, the results can be pretty ugly.	但“所做正确”未必容易，而当美联储所做错误，结果也相当糟糕。


Famously, the Fed’s efforts to tame a stock-market bubble in the late 1920s sparked the Great Depression of the 1930s.	著名的例子有20世纪20年代末美联储熄灭股市泡沫的措施引发了30年代的大萧条。


(Fortunately, of the candidates Trump was considering for the Fed post, Powell is the one least likely to repeat this mistake.)	（幸运的是，在特朗普考虑过的美联储主席人选中，鲍威尔是最不可能重蹈这一覆辙的。


And when the Fed printed mountains of money in the 1970s to try to dull the pain of that decade’s oil shocks, it triggered an inflationary surge that took more than a decade to tame.	）20世纪70年代，美联储海量印钞，试图以此平息这个十年中石油冲击所带来的阵痛，结果引发了通胀飙升，又花了十多年才把通胀遏制住。


At times, the rest of the world seems to care more about Fed policy than Americans do.	在很多时候，世界其他国家比美国人更加关注美联储的政策。


Little wonder: perhaps more than ever, the US dollar lies at the heart of the global financial system.	这并不奇怪：美元在全球金融体系中的核心地位也许比以往任何时候都更加稳固。


This is partly because much of world trade and finance is indexed to the dollar, leading many countries to try to mimic Fed policies to stabilize their exchange rates.	这部分是因为世界贸易和金融大部分与美元挂钩，导致许多国家要跟在美联储的政策后亦步亦趋以稳定汇率。


Powell will face some extraordinary challenges at the outset of his five-year term.	在他的五年任期伊始，鲍威尔就将面临一些重大挑战。


By some measures, stock markets look even frothier today than they did in the 1920s.	从某些角度衡量，今天的股市比20世纪20年代泡沫更甚。


With today’s extraordinarily low interest rates, investors seem ever more willing to assume greater risk in search of return.	在当今极低的利率环境下，投资者似乎更加愿意为了回报而承受更大风险。


At the same time, despite a strongly growing US and global economy, inflation remains mystifyingly low.	与此同时，尽管美国和全球经济都在强劲增长中，通胀仍然令人困惑地低迷。


This has made it extremely difficult for the Fed to normalize policy interest rates (still only 1%) so that it has room to cut them when the next recession hits, which it inevitably will.	这使得美联储的政策利率（仍只有1%）正常化变得极其困难。 而只有实现了政策利率正常化，美联储才有空间在下一次衰退来临时（这是无法避免的）削减利率。


(The odds of a recession hitting in any given year are around 17%, and that seems like a good guess now.)	（任何给定年份发生衰退的概率为17%，而现在衰退概率很高。 ）


If Powell and the Fed cannot normalize interest rates before the next recession, what will they do?	如果鲍威尔和美联储无法在下一次衰退前实现利率正常化，他们该怎么办？


Yellen insists that there is nothing to worry about; the Fed has everything under control, because it can turn to alternative instruments.	耶伦坚持认为没什么好担心的； 美联储一切尽在掌握，因为它还有另类工具可用。


But many economists have come to believe that much of this is smoke and mirrors.	但许多经济学家相信这些基本上都是骗人的东西。


For example, so-called quantitative easing involves having the Fed issue short-term debt to buy up long-term government debt.	比如，所谓的量化宽松就是让美联储发行短期债务去买长期政府债务。


But the US Treasury owns the Fed, and can carry out such debt purchases perfectly well by itself.	但美国财政部拥有美联储，它大可以自己完成这类债务购买。


Some argue for “helicopter money,” whereby the Fed prints money and hands it out.	一些人认为可以“直升机撒钱”，即美联储印钱然后发钱。


But this, too, is smoke and mirrors.	这也是骗人的把戏。


The Fed has neither the legal authority nor the political mandate to run fiscal policy; if it tries to do so, it runs the risk of forever losing its independence.	美联储既没有法定权力，也没有政治授权来负责财政政策； 如果它要这样做的话，就有可能永远失去独立性。


Given that monetary policy is the first and best line of defense against a recession, an urgent task for the new chair is to develop a better approach.	货币政策是衰退的第一道也是最有效的一道防线，因此，新主席的一个紧迫任务是制定更好的方针。


Fortunately, good ideas exist, and one can only hope that Powell will quickly move to create a committee to study long-term fixes.	幸运的是，好主意是有的，我们只能寄希望于鲍威尔能够迅速成立一个委员会研究长期方案。


One idea is to raise the Fed’s inflation target.	一个主意是提高美联储的通胀目标。


But this would be problematic, not least because it would breach a decades-long promise to keep inflation around 2%.	但这会带来问题，因为会打破几十年来将通胀保持在2%左右的承诺。


Moreover, higher inflation would induce greater indexation, ultimately undermining the effectiveness of monetary policy.	此外，更高的通胀将引来更大的指数化，最终影响货币政策的效果。


Paving the way for effective negative-interest-rate policy is a more radical – but by far the more elegant – solution.	为有效的负利率政策铺路是更加激进，但也是到目前为止最文雅的方案。


Bank regulation is also part of the Fed’s mandate.	银行监管也属于美联储的权限范围。


The 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-reform legislation, which has spawned 30,000 pages of rules, has been a boon for lawyers.	规则厚达30,000页的2010年多德-弗兰克（Dodd-Frank）金融改革立法让律师乐开了花。


But the massive compliance costs ultimately fall on small and medium-size businesses.	但巨大的合规成本最终要落到中小企业头上。


It would be far better simply to require banks to raise much more of their resources in equity markets instead of through bonds.	简单地要求银行加大从股市而非债券募集资源是一个更好的办法。


That way, shareholders, not taxpayers, would take the big hit in a crisis.	如此，当危机来临时，受影响的将是股东而非纳税人。


I have not mentioned the elephant in the room: the threat to the Fed’s independence posed by a president seemingly intent on challenging all institutional norms.	我还没有提到房间中的大象：一位貌似要挑战一切制度规范的总统给美联储的独立性带来的威胁。


When President Richard Nixon was intent on being re-elected in 1972, he put heavy pressure on then-Fed Chair Arthur Burns to “juice” the economy.	1972年，尼克松总统寻求连任时，他向时任美联储主席伯恩斯（Arthur Berns）大举施压，要他“水灌”经济。


Nixon was re-elected, but inflation soared and growth collapsed.	尼克松成功连任了，但通胀飙升，增长崩溃。


No one should be wishing for a replay – even if Nixon eventually was impeached.	没人想要重新体验这一过程——即使尼克松最终还是被弹劾了。


Goodbye, Johnny	再见，约翰尼


PARIS – What better send-off for a rocker than Saturday’s vast, silent concert on the steps of a church?	巴黎—对一位摇滚乐手来说，还有什么送别方式比教堂台阶上的巨型静默音乐会更好的呢？


And what better farewell to a great performer than the one delivered by the immense crowd chanting around a body that seemed to have arranged, from the great beyond, this last demonstration of enthusiasm and love?	对一位表演者来说，还有什么告别方式比众人围绕遗体吟唱，好像这是事先安排好的展示热情和爱的方式一样更好的呢？


Herein lies the beguiling feature of the funeral of Johnny Hallyday, France’s national singer: his ability to stage-manage his destiny, right up the final hour, and the star power that his being retained even in death.	这就是法国国民歌手约翰尼·阿利代的葬礼：他就是能够这样指挥自己的命运，哪怕是在最后的时刻，他拥有的巨星实力在他身后仍能经久不衰。


The costume he chose for his last performance was oblong and white.	他给自己的最后表演选择的装扮是一个白色的长方形。


Nothing remained of his swaying hips and his howls, or of the pale eyes perpetually on the verge of laughing or crying (you never knew which).	他再也不能摇摆臀部，发出吼声，他的睡眼朦胧的眼睛再也无法做出似笑非笑，似哭非哭的表情（你永远不知道是哪一种）。


And yet there he was, charisma and presence, the spell of a shaman inviting you one last time to dance the eternal chorus in the aura of his mystery and his smile.	但他的魅力和仪态仍在，就像一位巫师那样召唤你最后一次在他的神秘光环和他的微笑中跳一曲永恒之歌。


And there was the spirit of France: young and old, the French president and two of his predecessors, the novelists Philippe Labro and Daniel Rondeau, celebrities, artists, fans from 50 years ago wearing Apache fringe, a remembrance of the striking miners of Lorraine, the words of Jacques Prévert, tears shed by ordinary people.	这就是法国精神：老人和少年，法国总统和他的两位前任，小说家菲利普·拉布罗（Philippe Labro）和丹尼尔·隆多（Daniel Rondeau），名流，艺术家，穿戴阿帕奇（Apache）流苏的50多年前的歌迷，洛林罢工矿工的追忆，雅克·普雷威特（Jacques Prévert）的辞赋，普通人流下的眼泪。


And all of them seemed to be under Hallyday’s influence still: The great actor who was suddenly starkly human and at a loss.	而所偶这些似乎都仍在受到阿利代的影响：突然间沦落为不完整的凡人的伟大表演者。


The old, unsentimental crooner with a tear on his cheek.	面无表情的老歌手脸上流下清泪。


The column of bikers that descended the Champs-Elysées, which never wore its funereal name so well.	沿着爱丽舍宫鱼贯骑行的车手们，从未将葬礼的名字打扮得如此出色。


There was the Place de la Madeleine, too.	还有玛德莲广场（Place de la Madeleine）。


Usually so staid and cold, it echoed to the rhythm of strings with the swing of the Louisiana bayous at one moment, and at the next with the memory of the concert at the Olympia, so close but a half-century away, where the saturnine firebrand upended ten thousand hearts.	它总是如此沉着冷静，这一刻，弦韵与路易斯安纳河口的摇曳遥相呼应，下一刻，又让人想起奥林匹亚的演唱会，它好像近在眼前，实则已经过去了半个世纪，忧郁的火把让一万颗心神魂颠倒。


Here was an upwelling of emotion the likes of which France had not seen since the funerals of Victor Hugo and Edith Piaf, since the catafalque of Jean Jaurès went up the Rue Soufflot.	这种升华的情绪，自从雨果和琵雅芙（Edith Piaf）的葬礼以来，自从饶勒斯（Jean Jaurès）的灵车通过苏福洛路（Rue Soufflot）以来，从未在法国的葬礼上出现过。


A million mourners were left not knowing whether to cry, sing, throw chairs around, request an encore, or light candles.	一百万哀悼者走上街头，不知道应该哭泣，歌唱，丢椅子（throw chairs around），要求“再来一曲”，还是点燃蜡烛。


Disappearing in a final parade of passion and energy, of restlessness and quiet rebellion, of inner fissures and desire for harmony, was someone who had spent his life trying not to survive.	在激情和能量的最后游行中，在不安定和静悄悄的叛逆中，在内心的分裂和和谐的渴望中，那个毕生追逐不要生存的人消失了。


And on that day, he was so well mourned that his absence seemed like part of a show, somehow making us forget that he was no longer with us.	在这一天，他极尽哀荣，他的告别就像是一场表演，让我们忘记了他已经不再与我们同在。


Abiding in each of us was the Johnny that moved us all: the youth spent with a traveling act, like Gautier’s Captain Fracasse; the father, a character out of Modiano, who, between bouts of drinking, pawned the gifts given to him by his abandoned son.	感动我们所有人的约翰尼仍住在我们心中：一直在旅行的男人，就像戈蒂埃（Gautier）的弗朗卡司船长（Captain Fracasse）； 莫迪亚诺（Modiano）的“呼儿将出换美酒”的父亲角色。


And then there was the ’60s rocker with the eyes of a sad wolf and cheekbones hewn by Giacometti, the Catcher in the Rye mood, and a melancholy so intensely hopeless that it seemed to condemn him to live on the edge of every form of excess.	还有60年代的摇滚歌手们，他们的眼睛就像悲狼，他们颧骨像是被贾科梅蒂（Giacometti）切削过，他们的情绪像是《麦田里的守望者》，他们抑郁到绝望，好像在控诉他的生活各种不知节制。


He was the consummate artist of the French scene, a chameleon beamed out on satellite TV, dripping with fake sweat and real glitz, an artist who, like a novelist, confessed as a way of lying.	他是法国舞台上的完美艺术家，卫星频道上光芒四射的变色龙，流着假汗水，闪耀真光芒，一位像小说家那样用谎言的方式坦白自己的艺术家。


Hallyday was the child of a generation that watched American GIs enter Paris and that invented for itself an American ascendance.	阿利代是看着美国大兵进入巴黎、产生美国支配一切的感情的那一代人的孩子。


America was cigarettes, Levi’s, and Coca-Cola.	美国就是烟草，是李维斯，是可口可乐。


But it was also the languor of the blues, Nashville, and the green light that he saw gleaming at dawn after nights soaked in alcohol and amphetamines.	但它也是慵懒的蓝调，是纳什维尔（Nashville），是他在浸透着酒精和安非他命的长夜尽头所看到的隐隐闪现的绿光。


When this distraught colossus of sorrow, the unsleeping and suicidal cowboy, offered his body in sacrifice to the camera and to the mob of entranced fans, he struck François Mauriac as a Mephistophelean figure.	这个哀伤到发狂的巨匠、警醒的自杀牛仔（suicidal cowboy），将自己牺牲的遗体献给了镜头和着迷的“粉丝”群，此时，他击中了作为反派人物的弗朗索瓦·莫亚力克（François Mauriac）。


Here was the hero, motley and scarred, whose glory seemed like a wound, whose victories were stigmata, and who, from metamorphosis to metamorphosis, embodied what is wrongly called pop or variety but that was, in him, more like fallen greatness or the lament of a cleverly disguised poet.	这个英雄百衲衣，刀疤脸，他的光荣就像是一个伤口，他的胜利就像是圣痕（stigmata），他从变态走向变态（from metamorphosis to metamorphosis），表达着被错误地称为流行或变体（variety），但对他来说更像是坠落的伟大（fallen greatness）或对巧妙掩饰的诗人的哀叹的东西。


And, at the end, there was King Lear triumphant, the wax face with the periwinkle gaze, survivor of an era whose heroes perished before the age of 30, one who knew that his survival was a miracle.	在这方面，有一个得意洋洋的李尔王，一张长着一双蔓长春花色的眼睛的蜡色的脸，他从英雄不到30岁便凋零的时代存活下来，知道他活下来是一个奇迹。


And then, finally, there were those near-deaths in the manner of Bossuet (“Johnny is dying!	终于，他以波苏哀（Bossuet）的方式濒临死亡（“约翰尼快死了！


Johnny is dead!”): he would always revive, right up to the very last time, when he lived again in Paris for a few hours under a cold December sun.	约翰尼死了！ ”）：他会永远活着，直到最后一刻，他在寒冷的12月的太阳下，在巴黎复活几个小时。


The Vatican of literature that is the Swedish Academy has, with the Nobel coronation of Bob Dylan, rescued song from its canonical hell.	文学的圣殿瑞典科学院授予鲍勃·迪伦（Bob Dylan）诺贝尔奖，将歌曲从规范的地狱中救出。


In the case of Johnny Hallyday, it is perhaps not too farfetched to believe that this man of sphinx-like mystery is now, like Baudelaire, “a block of granite surrounded by vague fear” whose “fierce nature sings only to the rays of the setting sun.”	对于约翰尼·阿利代来说，认为这个高深莫测的神秘人现在就像波德莱尔那样，成为“一块花岗石，周围是模糊的恐惧”，其“暴脾气只为夕阳引吭高歌”恐怕亦不为过。


The Hazards Behind the Headlines	新闻头条背后的伤害


LONDON – Not too long ago, the only journalists working in conflict areas who might be afforded protection were those working for wealthy, predominantly Western news organizations.	发自伦敦——就在不久前，在冲突地区工作又能受到保护的只有那些为财力雄厚（且主要是西方）新闻机构工作的记者。


These journalists would attend expensive courses run by former special forces personnel, who trained them to navigate hostile environments. They would be furnished with flak jackets and helmets, and given first aid kits.	这些记者会参加由前特种部队人员执教的昂贵课程以便在敌对环境中活动，还会配备防弹衣，头盔和急救包。


But journalists elsewhere have rarely benefited from this culture of safety.	但其他地方的记者很少能受益于这种安全文化。


From Mexico and Brazil to Pakistan and Somalia, journalists are often murdered with impunity.	从墨西哥，巴西到巴基斯坦，索马里，经常有记者遭到谋杀并最终不了了之。


And more often than not, when the messenger is silenced, so is the message.	而通常情况下，当传递某一新闻的信使被捂住了嘴时，这个新闻也会是同等下场。


For the last 15 years, the International News Safety Institute has been collating a list of journalists who have died on the job. What we have found is shocking: for every ten reporters killed, nine died while on assignment in their home country.	在过去15年中，国际新闻安全研究所一直在整理因工遇难的记者名单，并因此得出了令人震惊的发现：每十名遇难记者中往往有九名是在本国执行采访任务时身亡。


Countless others have had to abandon their homes, jobs, and countries; and those who do stay often live in constant fear for their safety.	还有许多记者被迫逃离自己的住所，工作岗位和国家； 而那些留下来的人常常会对自身安全忧虑不已。


In places where corrupt regimes or militant groups want to control the flow of information, journalists have long had to risk being kidnapped or killed.	在腐败政权或军人集团想要控制信息流动的地方，记者长期以来都冒着被绑架或杀害的危险。


But in recent years, this threat has become so great that some countries are now effectively no-go zones for international-media organizations.	但近年来这一威胁变得如此之大，以致某些国家已经沦为了国际媒体组织的禁地。


Western correspondents are aware of these risks when they travel abroad to cover active war zones.	西方记者在出国报道战区新闻时是会提前意识到各类风险的。


But now they confront similar dangers at home.	但如今他们在本国也会面临类似的危险。


Wherever journalists work – whether online or offline – they need to be mindful of more physical, psychological, and digital risks than ever before.	只要记者是在工作（无论在线上还是线下），他们都得留意比以往任何时候更多的身体，心理和数字风险。


Terrorist attacks have affected news organizations, particularly in Europe, in unexpected ways.	恐怖袭击事件以意想不到的方式影响了新闻机构，尤其是在欧洲。


Many of those who arrived first at the scene of the Manchester Arena bombing or the massacre at the Bataclan concert hall in Paris had not received the physical training for such eventualities, nor were they emotionally prepared to cover stories where they would be exposed to that degree of trauma.	那些首先到达曼彻斯特体育馆爆炸或巴黎巴塔克兰音乐厅大屠杀现场的记者们既没有接受过应付这类事件的体能训练，也未能在情绪上准备好去报道一个会将他们暴露于一定程度精神创伤的新闻事件。


In response to these events, some newsrooms have started preparing for what they will do if a domestic terrorist attack directly affects their operations.	为了应对这些事件，一些新闻编辑部已经开始准备如果国内恐怖袭击直接影响其运作时的应对预案。


Organizations – including the BBC, the Dutch public service broadcaster NOS, and others across Europe – have plans in place for journalists responding to incidents in their home cities or those directly targeting their newsrooms.	包括英国广播公司，荷兰公共服务广播公和和欧洲其他媒体在内的组织机构都制订了记者报道家乡城市或直接针对媒体本部的事件时的行动计划。


Beyond bullets and bombs, journalists also face increasing psychological threats at home.	除了子弹和炸弹之外，记者也面临着越来越多的本土心理威胁。


In July, a report I co-authored for the International News Safety Institute put a name to one such threat, a phenomenon known as “moral injury.”	7月份，由笔者与其他研究人员为国际新闻安全研究所共同撰写的一份报告将这类威胁定名为“道德伤害”。


The report, published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford, examined the impact of covering the recent refugee crisis in Europe on members of the media.	这份由牛津大学路透新闻学研究所发表的报告审视了欧洲近期难民危机对媒体报道者的影响。


Reporting on a traumatic story, we found, can have a profound impact on one’s mental health.	我们发现，报道心理创伤性故事可能会对报道者的精神健康产生深远的影响。


Our research noted that feelings of guilt and helplessness can be overwhelming when events “transgress personal moral and ethical values or codes of conduct.”	我们的研究指出，当事件“超越个人道德和价值观或行为准则”时，会令报道者产生压倒性的内疚和无助感。


To guard against the risks of moral injury, we highlighted the importance of education, explaining that, “journalists need to understand that this is the ‘new’ terrain, part of the mental landscape of the profession.”	为了防范道德伤害的风险，我们强调了教育的重要性，解释说“记者需要了解到这是个‘新’领域，也是记者这一行业精神图景的一部分。


Our report also suggested that organizations should look to provide support to those who needed it, bearing in mind that individuals respond to and recover from trauma in different ways.	”我们的报告还建议各媒体机构应该为那些需要的人提供支持，同时考虑到每个人都会对创伤有着不同的回应和复原方式。


In the US, journalists face another kind of psychological threat: harassment from their own government.	在美国，记者面临另一种心理威胁：本国政府的骚扰。


Although journalists are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution, US President Donald Trump has nevertheless used his social-media bully pulpit to routinely vilify the entire news media.	虽然新闻工作者受到美国宪法第一修正案的保护，但美国总统特朗普仍然时常用自己的社交媒体欺侮平台来诋毁整个新闻媒体。


Trump’s disdain for free speech mirrors that of authoritarian governments, from Turkey to the Philippines, where journalists have been arrested, imprisoned, and harassed in record numbers.	特朗普对自由言论的蔑视跟土耳其，菲律宾等国的独裁政府如出一辙，而在那些国家记者被拘留，监禁和骚扰的不在少数。


Journalists are also increasingly vulnerable online, where anonymity has created a culture of trolling and harassment.	记者在网络也越来越脆弱，匿名性滋生出了一种散布谣言和骚扰的文化。


Female journalists have had to bear the brunt of digital attacks, which can rapidly escalate into threats of sexual violence.	首当其冲遭遇这些网络袭击的是女性记者，而这些攻击可以迅速升级为性暴力威胁。


In response, many journalists have abandoned social media, and others have left the profession of journalism altogether.	许多记者因此对社交媒体敬而远之，而其他人则彻底离开了新闻行业。


The world is a risky place for journalists, which is precisely why we must do everything that we can to protect them.	这个世界对于记者而言是一个危险的地方，而这也正是我们必须尽全力保护他们的原因。


Never before has the role of journalism been so important.	新闻工作的重要性也从未如此重要。


In today’s noisy, confusing, multi-channel news landscape, where “fake news” is sold as fact, we need accountable, analytical, responsible reporting more than ever.	在今天这个嘈杂，混乱且多渠道，将“假消息”作为事实贩售的新闻图景中，我们比以往任何时候都需要实话实说，分析严谨且负责任的报告。


A free press delivers truth, holds power to account, and calls out threats to liberty and justice.	自由的新闻界能提供真相，让权力问责，并揭露出那些对自由和正义的威胁。


But the press can never be free if its members are not kept safe.	但如果连新闻界的成员都无法保证自己的安全，新闻就永远无法实现自由。


Jean-Claude Juncker’s Roadmap for European Disaster	容克的欧洲灾难路线图


MUNICH – A group of hikers has lost its way.	慕尼黑—一群徒步旅行者迷了路。


They want to get to a castle on a hill in the distance, but the path they are on seems to be leading in a different direction, and their leader’s only advice is to hurry up.	他们想去远处山上的城堡，但脚下的道路似乎方向错了，而领头人还在不断催他们快走。


Today, the eurozone is in the same situation as those hikers.	今天的欧元区的状况就像是这样一群徒步旅行者。


It has become increasingly clear that establishing the euro was the wrong path to take.	情况越来越清楚，引入欧元是一步错棋。


The single currency caused an inflationary credit bubble in Southern Europe.	单一货币导致南欧出现通胀性信用泡沫。


When the bubble burst, the region’s competitiveness was destroyed, and Northern Europe was called on to provide huge loan guarantees, public credit, and transfers.	泡沫破裂时，该地区的竞争力也随之毁灭，而北欧被要求提供巨额贷款担保、公共信用和转移支付。


These measures have sustained the wrong relative prices that resulted from the bubble, and papered over the underlying problem.	这些措施维持了错误的相对价格——这是这种错误的相对价格引起了泡沫——也掩盖了根本问题。


Meanwhile, the Schengen Agreement, which eliminated most border checks between European Union member states, has facilitated the ability of immigrants from the poorer parts of Asia and Africa to flock to Northern European welfare states in recent years.	与此同时，申根协定取消了大部分欧盟成员国之间的边检，便利了移民在近几年中从较穷的亚洲和非洲大量涌向北欧福利国家。


In response to these events, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker used his State of the Union address this month to call for even more countries to join the eurozone and the Schengen Area.	应对这些情况，欧盟委员会主席容克在本月的欧盟盟情咨文中号召更多国家加入欧元区和申根区。


Juncker is the charismatic but confused guide who is leading our metaphorical group of hikers astray.	容克是一个很有魅力但头脑混乱的向导，正在引导我们这个隐喻中的徒步旅行团迷路。


All non-euro EU member states, except Denmark are already legally obligated to work toward adopting the euro, by satisfying various “convergence criteria.”	所有非欧元欧盟成员国（除了丹麦），都有法定义务致力于通过满足不同的“趋同标准”，逐步采用欧元。


But Juncker obviously wants to accelerate that process, by loosening the eurozone membership criteria and providing financial incentives for new members to join.	但容克显然希望加速这一进程，放松欧元区成员资格标准，并提供金融激励刺激新成员加入。


Given the eurozone’s past problems, this is an extremely dangerous proposition.	考虑到欧元区过去的问题，这一方案非常危险。


If realized, it would probably fuel the same kind of destructive overheating that we have seen in Southern Europe.	如果实现的话，它有可能助推南欧所出现过的破坏性过热。


In fact, Bulgarian, Croatian, and Romanian households have already loaded up on excessive debt in foreign currencies – primarily euros – in anticipation of joining the monetary union, and this has created substantial financial difficulties.	事实上，在预期加入欧洲货币联盟的情况下，保加利亚、克罗地亚和罗马尼亚家庭已经外币债台高筑——主要是欧元债务——而这带来了巨大的金融困难。


Of course, it is understandable that Western banks that recklessly extended euro loans to these countries now want to give them euro printing presses.	当然，不难理解，鲁莽地想这些国家大肆发放欧元贷款的西方银行现在想把欧元印钞机也送给它们。


That way, the debtor countries can reassure their creditors and repay their loans with self-printed cash if necessary, as Southern European countries have done for the last decade.	如此，债务国就可以保证在必要时用自己印的现金来偿还它们的贷款，就像南欧国家在过去十年中所做的那样。


Providing Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania with national euro printing presses would keep private credit flowing and enable foreign-currency loans to be rolled over.	向保加利亚、克罗地亚和罗马尼亚提供国家欧元印钞权将维持私人信用流，使外币贷款得以延期。


But so much artificially cheap credit would also bloat state pensions, government wages, and social transfers.	但人为的廉价信用也将导致国家退休金、政府工资和社会转移支付膨胀。


And this, in turn, would lead to overheating real-estate markets and domestic-wage increases, thus undermining international competitiveness.	而这反过来又将导致房地产市场过热和国内工资上涨，从而破坏国际竞争力。


Normally, a country that finds itself in such a position would urgently devalue its currency.	通常，陷入这一状况的国家要采取紧急货币贬值。


But, because euro membership precludes that option, financially sound Northern European countries would once again be called upon to help with European Central Bank loan guarantees and financial transfers, while tolerating the newly added eurozone members’ self-service with the printing press.	但欧元区成员国身份排除了这一选项，因此金融坚挺的北欧国家将再次被要求帮助欧洲央行贷款担保和金融转移支付，同时容忍新加入的欧元区成员国开动印钞机满足自我的做法。


In short, Juncker’s plan to accelerate eurozone accession threatens to recreate in spades the chaos of the past decade, which started with a bubble in Southern Europe, and culminated in the Greek sovereign-debt crisis.	简言之，容克的计划——加快欧元区加入流程——有可能让过去十年的混乱重演，上一次混乱始于南欧的泡沫，在希腊主权债务危机中达到高潮。


Juncker’s proposal to extend the Schengen Area to the east is similarly misguided, and seems to ignore the lessons of recent history.	容克的申根区东扩方案也有同样的误导作用，并且无视最新的历史教训。


The unmanageable wave of immigration in 2015 showed that Europe has too few internal and external border controls.	2015年面临难民潮束手无策的情况表明，欧洲内部和外部的边境控制太少了。


Juncker might like to think that immigration has since slowed, owing to the agreement that the EU reached with Turkey in early 2016.	容克也许在想，因为欧盟与土耳其在2016年年初达成了协议，此后移民流入速度有所放缓。


But data from the European border-control authority Frontex indicate that the migration flows stalled once a fence was erected in Macedonia, at the behest of Austria and the Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia).	但欧盟边防局（Frontex）的数据显示，移民流系在奥地利和维谢格拉德国家（捷克、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克）要求马其顿建立了隔离墙后才应声下降。


Moreover, the Hungarian-Serbian border fence and Hungary’s ever-tightening controls at its border with Romania have also contributed to European stability.	此外，匈牙利-塞尔维亚边境墙和匈牙利日益收紧的罗马尼亚边境控制也有助于欧洲的稳定。


But migrants are now crossing the Black Sea from Turkey to Bulgaria, and might come in even larger numbers if the EU membership negotiations with Turkey stall.	但现在移民从土耳其穿越黑海进入保加利亚，如果土耳其欧盟成员资格谈判陷入停顿，移民的数量可能会变得更加巨大。


As a result, the rest of the EU should oppose any bid to eliminate existing border controls, which is exactly what would happen if Bulgaria and Romania were included in the Schengen Area.	因此，其他欧盟成员国应该反对一切取消现有边控措施的提案，而如果保加利亚和罗马尼亚被纳入申根区，这一幕必将成为现实。


One can only wonder what is driving Juncker’s proposals.	不禁要问，是什么推动容克提出这样的提案。


To be sure, the European Commission cannot neglect the interests of financial institutions in Paris, Luxembourg, and Frankfurt.	平心而论，欧盟委员会不可能无视巴黎、卢森堡和法兰克福的金融机构的利益。


No one wants the ill-advised loans extended to Eastern European countries to fuel another bank crisis.	没人希望让不审慎的贷款扩大到东欧国家，助长又一场银行危机。


But the result of Juncker having his way would be even worse.	但容克取得成功的结果将更加糟糕。


An inflationary bubble in Eastern Europe, coupled with the dismantling of border controls, could destabilize the entire EU and create a fresh wave of economic migrants into Central Europe.	东欧的通胀性泡沫，加上边控的取消，可能动摇整个欧盟，导致新一波经济移民潮进入中欧。


It is time for Europe’s trail guide to see reason, consult a compass, and get back on track.	欧洲的徒步旅行向导应该讲讲道理，看看罗盘，认清正确的道路。


A Good German Idea for 2018	2018年的德国好概念


ATHENS – By 2016, almost all Europeans had realized that radical policy and institutional reforms were essential to revive the European project.	雅典—2016年，几乎所有欧洲人都认识到，要复兴欧洲工程，必须采取果断政策和制度改革。


Yet serious reform was impeded by the usual disagreement about what should be done – a dispute that Emmanuel Macron, France’s new president, once described as a “holy war” between German and French elites.	但深度改革遇到了常见的障碍——对应该怎么做产生了分歧，法国新总统马克龙曾经将这一分歧称为德国和法国精英之间的“神圣战争”。


The year just ended, highlighted by the election of a French president much to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s liking, demonstrated that, ultimately, it does not really matter who rules in Berlin and in Paris, or how much they like each other.	在刚刚过去的一年里，法国选出了一位颇合德国总理默克尔胃口的总统，这表明，说到底，谁在柏林和巴黎主政，或者主政者彼此有多喜欢，其实都不重要。


The “holy war” persists, even if the missiles with which each side demolishes the other’s proposals are now wrapped in diplomatic velvet.	“神圣战争”在继续，虽然双方用来反驳对方的方案的导弹目前仍包裹着外交的天鹅绒。


At the heart of this Franco-German war is the clash between two Rs: the German commitment to rectitude versus the French penchant for redistribution.	这场法德战争的核心是两个R之间的碰撞：德国坚持要公正（rectitude），而法国则更想要再分配（redistribution）。


German officials greet every French government proposal by mentally computing its cost for German taxpayers.	德国官员表面欢迎每一项法国政府的方案，心里则在算计这给德国纳税人所带来的成本。


And, behind every German counter-proposal, French officials see a ploy to hide behind rules and regulations so that the German elites can have their cake and eat it.	而在每一份德国的针锋相对的方案背后，法国官员看到了一个藏在规则和监管背后的诡计，即德国精英能够分得一杯羹。


Europe’s continued slide into stagnation and disrepute is the natural outcome.	欧洲就在不断的分歧之间陷入了停滞，而名誉扫地只是自然而然的结果。


Perhaps the German insistence on rectitude is right, although not in a sense that German officials will necessarily appreciate.	也许德国坚持公正并不错，只不过未必是在德国官员所欣赏的意义上。


I could not, in good conscience, side credibly with any French, Italian, or Greek proponent of redistribution if their proposals violated the principles of rectitude.	凭良心说，我无法“无脑站边”任何法国、意大利或希腊所提出的再分配方案，如果这些方案有违公正原则的话。


Doing what is right is, surely, superior to doing what is wrong, but expedient.	做正确的事当然要比作错误但权宜的事更重要。


But then the question becomes: What is the right thing to do?	但是问题来了：什么是正确的事？


And how can we agree on any answer, given our different interests, dispositions, and cultural backgrounds?	在我们的利益、配置和文化背景各不相同的情况下，如何就某个答案形成一致？


One thing is certain: We will never find out what rectitude commands if we are driven solely by our “interests.”	有一点是确定的：如果我们只受我们的“利益”的驱使，那么我们永远无法理解公正的含义。


Europe’s impasse is largely due to a standoff between opposing desires, objectives, and concerns: German fears of Greco-Latin rule-bending will always trump French fears of German empire-building, and vice versa.	欧洲的僵局主要是因为截然相反的愿望、目标和关注点导致的：德国担心希腊-拉丁的规则扭曲永远甚于法国担心德国的帝国缔造，反之亦然。


But if prejudicial desires lead to a dead end, and fail to reveal the right course of action, where does the key to rectitude lie?	但如果存有偏见的愿望导致僵局，也无法揭示正确的行动，那么公正的关键又在于何处？


“We should all do our duty” – a very German reply – merely displaces the disagreement to another plane, where we interminably debate competing duties.	“我们都应该做好应尽之责”——相当“德国”的回答——这只不过是用一个分歧取代另一个分歧，互相的矛盾的职责之间同样存在无尽的扯皮。


All madmen in authority, after all, believed they were doing their duty.	毕竟，掌权的疯子们都相信他们在尽自己的职责。


So the question becomes: “How can I know what my duty entails?”	于是问题变成了：“我如何知道我的职责包含哪些？


A theist answer is equally unacceptable, given the monstrous crimes carried out by zealots convinced they were fulfilling their divine duty.	”一神论的答案同样是不可接受的，因为认定自己在履行神赐责任的狂热分子犯下过滔天罪行。


The best answer I have come across is German: Immanuel Kant’s, to be precise.	我所见过的最佳答案是德国的：准确的说，是康德的。


For Kant, who struggled to re-define ethics in a new era of market societies, our duty can and must be deduced from our capacity for rationality.	康德苦心积虑想要在市场社会的新时代重新定义伦理，对他来说，我们的职责可以，也必须从我们的理性能力中衍生。


Unlike personal tastes, which are fickle and offer no sure path to happiness or virtue, duties can be discerned by a logical mechanism common to all humans.	和个人品味不同——个人品味可以轻易改变，无法提供通往快乐或美德之路——职责可以通过所有人类所共有的逻辑机制领会。


To be rational means more than being able to deploy your means efficiently in order to achieve your ends.	理性意味着你不仅仅能为了实现自己的目标而使用手段。


All sorts of animals are good at matching available means to given ends.	对于给定的目标，所有动物都擅长用可用的手段来与之匹配。


But humans are unique, Kant insists, because, unlike cats and dogs, we can pass rational judgment on our desires.	但人类是独特的，康德说，因为和猫狗不同，我们能够对我们的愿望进行道德评判。


We can ask ourselves, “I like X, but should I?”	我们可以扪心自问，“我喜欢X，但这应该吗？


And we can say, “It is my duty to do Y, even though Y will probably lead to outcomes I dislike, given my expectations of what others will do.”	”我们也可以说，“基于我对其他人会怎么做的预期，我有责任做Y，尽管Y有可能导致我不喜欢的结果。 ”


But if the mark of a rational person is a capacity to act on reasons transcending cost-benefit analysis, how can our rational duty be deduced impartially, free of the influence of personal interests or prejudices?	但如果理性人的标志是基于超越成本-收益分析的理由来行动的能力，我们如何来不偏不倚地推演我们的理性指责，而不受个人利益或偏见的影响？


Kant offers a famous example: Language is what distinguishes us from other species; without it, we are mere beasts.	康德提出了一个著名的例子：语言是区分我们和其他物种的关键； 没有语言，我们就只是野兽。


While lying often pays, if we all lied all the time, language would become obsolete.	尽管说谎常常会带来好处，但如果我们总是说谎，语言就会成为障碍。


Rational humans, Kant concludes, must recognize that they have a duty to abstain from a practice (lying) that, if adopted by everyone at once, would annul our most precious invention (language).	理性人，康德推论说，必须认识到他们有责任克制某种行为（说谎），如果每个人都做出这种行为的话，将会让我们最宝贵的发明（语言）作废。


No god is necessary, no moralizing is required, to demonstrate our duty to tell the truth.	这里不需要上帝也不需要道德化来说明我们说真话的职责。


Practical reasoning is all it takes: A world where everyone lies is one in which human rationality, which depends entirely on language, dies.	实践理性足矣：在所有人都说谎的世界，完全取决于语言的人类理性将被杀死。


So it is our rational duty to tell the truth, regardless of the benefits lying might bring in practice.	因此，说真话是我们的理性职责，不管在实际中说谎会带来多少收益。


Applied to market societies, Kant’s idea yields fascinating conclusions.	应用于市场社会，康德的概念会产生一些极好的结论。


Strategic reductions in price to undercut a competitor pass the test of rational duty (as long as prices do not fall below costs).	策略性降价以破坏竞争对手能通过理性职责测试（只要价格不下降到成本线以下）。


After all, producing maximum quantities at minimum prices is the holy grail of any economy.	毕竟，以最低价格生产最大数量是一切经济的圣杯。


But strategic reductions of wages to ever lower levels (the Uberization of society) cannot be rational, because the result would be a catastrophic collapse, owing to disappearing aggregate demand.	但策略性地不断降低工资——社会的优步化（Ubersization）——则必然是非理性的，因为其结果将是总需求消失进而导致灾难性崩盘。


Turning to Europe, Kant’s principle implies important duties for governments and polities.	回到欧洲。 康德的原则暗示了政府和政策的重要职责。


And Germany and France would be held to be in dereliction of their duties to a functioning Europe.	德国和法国应该因为对它们让欧洲正常运转的指责玩忽职守而受到谴责。


If Germany’s current-account surpluses, currently running at 9% of GDP, were universalized, with every member state’s government, private sector, and households net savers, the euro would shoot through the roof, destroying most of Europe’s manufacturing.	如果德国的经常项目盈余——目前占GDP的9%——平摊到各个成员国政府、私人部门和家庭净储蓄者头上的话，欧盟将会一飞冲天，破坏欧洲制造业大部。


Equally, universalized Greco-Latin deficits would turn Europe into a basket case.	同样地，将希腊-拉丁债务平摊的话，欧洲也将陷入瘫痪。


The trick, and our rational duty, is to embrace policies and to build institutions that are consistent with balanced trade and financial flows.	诀窍，以及我们的理性职责，在于制定政策、建设机构，使之与平衡贸易和金融流相一致。


Put differently, authentic German rectitude cannot be achieved without a form of redistribution that is bound to clash with the interests of, say, a French or a Greek oligarchy too lazy to come to terms with its own unsustainability.	换言之，如果没有势必导致（比如）与懒得解决自身的不可持续问题的法国或希腊寡头的利益冲突的再分配的话，真正的德国式公正也无从实现。


A critic of this German idea for reforming Europe might credibly ask why anyone should do their rational duty, rather than remain on the time-honored path of narrow self-interest?	这一德国式欧洲改革思维的批评者可能会不无道理地问，为何人们应该履行他们的理性职责，而不在经受时间考验的狭隘自利的老路上一直走下去？


The only sound answer is: because there is no truly rational alternative.	唯一可靠的答案是：因为这不是真正的理性方案。


Or, rather, the alternatives are all cant.	或者，其他方案都是伪善的。


A Young State in an Uncertain World	身处不确定世界的年轻国家


ALMATY – In mid-November, Kazakhstan hosted the third annual “Astana Club,” a new independent and unbiased platform for dialogue among international experts, politicians, and media representatives on the “critical issues affecting all the countries of Eurasia.”	阿拉木图—11月中旬，哈萨克斯坦主办了第三次“阿斯塔纳俱乐部”年会。 阿斯塔纳俱乐部是一个新成立的国际商界领袖、政治家、媒体代表和其他专家就“影响欧亚全体国家的关键问题”进行探讨的独立和中立的平台。


The event epitomized Kazakhstan’s foreign policy over the last two decades, at a moment when that policy is set to confront unprecedented tests.	它是哈萨克斯坦过去二十年来外交政策成果的集中体现，如今，哈萨克斯坦外交政策正面临前所未有的考验。


Participants in this year’s Astana Club were as high-profile as they were diverse.	其中包括来自欧洲、亚洲、美国和中东的领先智库代表； 一些前国家首脑，如土耳其的居尔和斯洛文尼亚的图尔克；


They included representatives of leading think tanks from Europe, Asia, the United States, and the Middle East; former presidents, such as Turkey’s Abdullah Gül and Slovenia’s Danilo Türk; former European Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner; Indian member of parliament Shashi Tharoor; and CEO of Channel One Russia Konstantin Ernst.	前欧盟委员费雷罗-沃尔德纳（Benita Ferrero-Waldner）； 印度议会议员沙鲁尔（Shashi Tharoor）以及俄罗斯一频道（Channel One Russia）首席执行官恩斯特（Konstantin Ernst）。


The discussions took place in the Nazarbayev Centre, housed in an imposing and futuristic building designed by the renowned British architect Norman Foster.	讨论在纳扎尔巴耶夫中心举行，这是一座美轮美奂的未来主义建筑，由英国著名建筑师福斯特（Norman Foster）设计。


In a scene reminiscent of the intergalactic assembly in Star Wars, participants sat at a large table encircling a map of Eurasia to discuss the emerging world order, great power rivalries, sanction wars, nuclear proliferation, and regional integration projects.	会议的情景很像是《星球大战》中的星系议会，与会者坐在一张大桌子旁，四周环绕着欧亚地图，讨论新兴国际秩序、大国对立、制裁战争、核扩散和地区一体化等议题。


This combination of status-seeking public relations and the provision of public goods that characterizes the Astana Club discussions has long been a feature of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy.	阿斯塔纳俱乐部的讨论既是追求地位（status-seeking）的公关活动，也提供公共品，这一组合也是哈萨克斯坦外交政策的长期特征。


For example, every three years Kazakhstan hosts a Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, for which it commissioned Foster to build another imposing and futuristic building, the Palace of Peace and Reconciliation.	比如，每三年，哈萨克斯坦都要举办一次世界和传统宗教领导人会议（Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions），为此，哈萨克斯坦委托福斯特设计了另一座美轮美奂的未来主义建筑——和平和妥协宫（Palace of Peace and Reconciliation）


Kazakhstan’s leadership has also worked to place itself at the forefront of the international non-proliferation movement.	哈萨克斯坦领导层还致力于让这个国家成为国际不扩散运动的先锋。


And this past October, talks were held in Astana, the capital, on the Syrian crisis, with representatives of the Syrian government and some armed opposition groups in attendance – despite Kazakhstan’s distance from the tragic developments in that country.	在刚刚过去的10月份，首都阿斯塔纳举行了叙利亚危机谈判，来自叙利亚政府和一些武装反对集团的代表出席了会议——尽管哈萨克斯坦和叙利亚的悲剧相隔万里之遥。


This approach emerged soon after Kazakhstan’s independence in 1991, when the country initiated the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, modeled after the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (now the OSCE).	这一方针在1991年哈萨克斯坦独立后不久便开始实施。 当时，哈萨克斯坦效仿欧洲安全与合作会议（即现在的欧安组织），举办了亚洲相互协调和建设信心措施会议（Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia）。


It reflects Kazakhstan’s appreciation of the liberal world order into which it was born in 1991 – an order that, at that time, had just received a major boost, with the Soviet Union’s collapse.	这体现出哈萨克斯坦对让它得以在1991年诞生的自由世界秩序的感激之情——当时，这一秩序因为苏联解体而大大增强。


Kazakhstan was never one to settle for being an accepted member of the liberal world order.	哈萨克斯坦从未满足于被自由世界秩序接受。


It wanted to be exemplary, not just joining multilateral regimes and organizations, but also making its own contribution.	它希望成为一个典范——不仅仅加入到多边机制和组织，还要做出自己的贡献。


That is why Kazakhstan sought the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europe, which it obtained in 2010, and pursued a difficult but ultimately successful campaign to become a non-permanent UN Security Council member in 2017-2018.	因此，哈萨克斯坦寻求成为欧安组织主席国（在2010年如愿），并克服万难，最终成功被选为2017—2018年联合国安理会非常人理事国。


Kazakhstan aspires eventually to join the advanced economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.	哈萨克斯坦的目标是最终加入发达经济体行列，进入经合组织。


But the international community that Kazakhstan is trying so hard to impress is undergoing fundamental change.	但哈萨克斯坦努力加入的国际社会正在经历更本性变革。


Russia, the great power of Kazakhstan’s neighborhood, has unsettled the region with its invasion of Ukraine, in which it illegally annexed Crimea and started a war in the eastern Donbas region.	哈萨克斯坦的强大邻邦俄罗斯用入侵乌克兰、非法吞并克里米亚并在其东部的顿巴斯发动战争的举动让地区陷入不安。


Compounding the problem, it seems that the United States under President Donald Trump cannot be counted on to continue constraining Russia or underwriting the post-1945 liberal world order that it created.	令问题更加棘手的是，特朗普治下的美国似乎无法继续遏制俄罗斯或支持其一手创造的1945年后的自由世界秩序。


Having ridden to power on a wave of popular anger, Trump can’t even be counted on to follow its rules.	特朗普依靠群众的愤怒赢得权力，因此你甚至不能期望他会遵守规则。


The European Union is similarly beset by internal political challenges – including negotiations with the United Kingdom over its withdrawal from the bloc – that stem from a surge in anti-establishment and nationalist sentiment.	类似地，欧盟也受制于源自反建制和民族主义情绪激昂的内部政治挑战——包括与英国之间的退欧谈判。


China has sought to step into the breach of global leadership – and has been met with surprisingly strong approval from the rest of the world.	中国试图填补全球领导力的空缺——并且出人意料地受到了世界其他国家的高度评价。


Such tectonic shifts are jarring enough for the large powers that bring them about; for smaller countries, they can be even more disorienting.	这些结构性变化足以让造成变化的大国感到震动； 对小国来说，这些变化更令它们无所适从。


Even as some welcome the demise of Western hegemony, the fact is that, for a country like Kazakhstan, unpredictability implies danger.	一些人乐于见到西方霸权的衰落，但事实是，对于像哈萨克斯坦这样的国家，不可预见性就意味着危险。


It does not help that the emerging powers are less bound to international human rights norms and conventions, and thus less likely to attempt to enforce them.	新兴强国较少受到国际人权规范和公约的约束，因此不太可能努力执行这些规范和公约，这绝不是有利的情况。


Kazakhstan achieved independence at a time when international cooperation, free trade, and collective security were encouraged, and it has long worked to support these principles.	哈萨克斯坦获得独立时正逢国际合作、自由贸易和集体安全大受鼓舞的时期，长期以来，它也致力于支持这些原则。


Though Kazakhstan’s government, like other young states in the region, has lagged in advancing democracy and human rights, it has at least avoided foreclosing them entirely.	尽管和域内其他年轻国家一样，哈萨克斯坦政府在推动民主和人权方面有所落后，但至少没有完全压制它们。


For now, Kazakhstan is trying to stay the course.	如今，哈萨克斯坦要坚持到底。


But if today’s trends continue, it might lose direction.	但如果现在的趋势持续下去，它可能失去方向。


The Case for Burning Ivory	焚烧象牙的理由


JOHANNESBURG – Kenya is about to destroy its entire stockpile of elephant ivory.	约翰内斯堡——肯尼亚即将销毁其全部的象牙库存。


More than 100 metric tons of “white gold” – both illegally harvested (confiscated from poachers or traders) and naturally accruing (from natural mortality) – will go up in smoke this weekend.	超过100吨的“白色黄金”——无论是非法采集（从偷猎者或商人手里没收）还是自然累积（采集自自然死亡的大象）——都将在本周末付之一炬。


In China – where the majority of the world’s ivory is consumed or stockpiled – the recently reported price is $1,100 per kilogram, putting the total value of the material to be burned at roughly $110 million.	在世界最主要的象牙消费或存储国中国，最新报价高达1，100美元每公斤，照此计算这批即将焚毁的象牙材料总价值约为1. 1亿美元。


To most economists, the idea of destroying something with so much value is anathema.	多数经济学家认为销毁如此高价的物品令人不可思议。


But there are good reasons for a country – even one as poor as Kenya – to surrender its ivory wealth to the flames.	但即使对像肯尼亚这样的穷国来说，将象牙财富付之一炬理由也非常充分。


For starters, stockpile destruction fortifies the credibility of demand-reduction campaigns in East Asia, without which the poaching problem will never be solved.	首先，销毁库存强化了东亚需求削减活动的公信力，没有这样的公信力，偷猎问题也永远无法得到解决。


Demand reduction aims to weaken the market for the product by changing consumer tastes.	消费削减活动的目标是通过改变消费者的口味来削弱产品市场。


As prices drop, so does the incentive for poachers to kill elephants.	价格的下跌将影响偷猎者猎杀大象的积极性。


When countries keep their stockpiles, however, they signal that they anticipate being able to sell ivory in the future.	但当国家试图保留库存时，他们向外界表明希望能在未来出售这批象牙。


This undermines the credibility of demand-reduction efforts; if the trade is likely to be legalized one day, any stigma associated with ivory consumption will be eroded.	这在很大程度上损害了需求削减工作的公信力； 如果有一天象牙贸易能够合法化，那么与象牙消费有关的任何耻辱均将遭到侵蚀。


Proponents of a regulated, legal international ivory trade argue that demand-reduction efforts can coexist with a limited legitimate supply.	合法管制国际象牙贸易的支持者认为需求削减工作可以和有限度的合法供应并存。


But this line of reasoning has a dangerous weakness: It assumes that a legal cartel – one proposed model for regulating supply – would crowd out illegal suppliers by providing ivory to the market at a lower cost.	但上述推理有一个危险的弱点：即假定合法卡特尔——即需求管理的拟议模式之一——会因为低成本向市场提供象牙而挤出非法的象牙供应。


This assumption is dubious at best.	这种假设充其量也不可全信。


The quantities traded through a legal mechanism would be insufficient to flood the market and suppress the price.	通过合法机制的象牙贸易数量完全不足以占领市场、打压价格。


Indeed, with legalized trade undermining demand-reduction efforts, the price of ivory is likely to remain high, ensuring that poaching continues.	事实上，在合法贸易破坏需求削减工作的情况下，象牙价格很有可能维持高位，从而保证偷猎活动能得以持续。


Some southern African countries argue that they should be allowed to sell their ivory in CITES-permitted, one-off sales to fund conservation efforts aimed at maintaining healthy elephant populations.	南部非洲某些国家认为应当允许他们按照《濒临绝种野生动植物国际贸易公约》的规定从事一次性的象牙销售活动，从而为保护健康象群的工作提供资金支持。


But, aside from the low probability in some countries that the revenue would be directed to that end, it is not clear that much money would be made.	但抛开某些国家不太可能将收入用于上述领域的情况不谈，这种方法能挣到多少钱依然是未知数。


Under CITES regulations, governments are permitted to sell only to other governments.	根据《濒临绝种野生动植物国际贸易公约》的规定，只允许在各国政府间进行贸易。


But what other governments are willing to pay may be as low as one-tenth of the illicit value.	但其他政府可能仅愿意支付非法贸易价值的区区十分之一。


And even then, governments can sell only naturally accrued ivory, not what was confiscated from poachers or illicit dealers.	而且即便如此，政府也只允许出售自然累积的象牙，从偷猎者或非法经销商手中没收的象牙不在其列。


China and the United States are in the process of formulating bans on domestic ivory trade, so it is not clear which governments would be interested in purchasing African stockpiles.	中美两国都在制定国内象牙贸易禁令，因此目前尚不清楚哪国政府会对购买非洲象牙库存感兴趣。


Vietnam and Laos are likely candidates, but they are also part of the infamous “golden triangle,” where illegal trade in wildlife and wildlife products continues to thrive.	越南和老挝虽然是可能的买家，但上述两国现实中是臭名昭著的“金三角”的组成部分，那里是野生动物及其产品非法贸易蓬勃发展的大本营。


The possibility of the legal ivory trade shifting to poorly regulated markets calls for a concerted international response, spearheaded by African governments through coalitions like the Elephant Protection Initiative, together with countries such as China.	合法象牙贸易可能转向监管不力的市场要求国际社会作出协调一致的反应，而牵头的理应是通过大象保护倡议联盟参与这项工作并与中国等国合作的非洲政府。


Preserving – rather than burning – stockpiles is the inefficient choice.	保留象牙库存是一种低效的选择，但焚毁不是。


Maintaining a stockpile is administratively and operationally expensive – and often pointless.	库存维护需要付出行政和运营成本——而且往往毫无意义。


Inventory management is labor-intensive and technologically demanding.	库存管理属于劳动密集型项目，而且对技术有着很高的要求。


The ivory also must be air-conditioned to prevent the tusks from cracking or becoming brittle (important factors for attracting higher prices).	而且象牙必须在空调环境下保存，以防止破裂或者变脆（这是卖出高价的重要因素）。


Given the low probability of being able to sell ivory in the future, the cost of storing and protecting it is unlikely to be recouped.	鉴于未来出售象牙的可能性十分之低，导致储存和保护成本不太可能被收回。


Meanwhile, criminal syndicates need only corrupt a handful of local officials to make off with the goods.	此外，犯罪集团仅需要向当地少数官员行贿即可带着象牙离开。


Then there are the high opportunity costs of investment in maintaining stockpiles.	再就是维护库存投资超高的机会成本。


The scarce human and financial resources allocated toward stockpile management could be more efficiently directed toward landscape preservation efforts (which can become self-sustaining over time through payment for ecosystem services).	用于库存管理的稀缺的人力和财力资源本来可以更为有效的运用于景观保护工作（这项工作从长远来看可以通过出售生态系统服务而逐步实现自我维系）。


Finally, burning ivory worth millions of dollars has an undeniable symbolic impact.	最后，焚毁价值成百上千万美元的象牙能够带来无可辩驳的象征性冲击。


It sends a clear message: Ivory belongs to elephants and to no one else.	它向外界传递了一个明确的信号：象牙只属于大象，而不属于任何人。


And it makes clear that elephants are worth more alive than dead.	它清楚地告诉人们大象活着比死去更有价值。


Indeed, elephants’ value is anything but symbolic.	事实上，大象绝不仅仅具备象征性价值。


Elephants are a keystone species for preserving important ecosystems.	大象是保护重要生态系统的关键物种。


And yet rampant poaching is destroying elephant populations across Africa, killing, on average, 30,000 a year.	但猖獗的偷猎活动正在毁灭整个非洲大陆的大象种群，平均每年遭到猎杀的大象多达30,000头。


Poaching also has a negative impact on communities, benefiting a few at the expense of the many.	偷猎活动还对社会产生了负面影响，以牺牲多数人的代价来满足少数人的利益。


Recent research has shown that community conservancies (areas set aside for wildlife conservation) in northern Kenya are highly effective forms of landscape (and therefore elephant) preservation, provided the right incentives are in place.	最近的研究已经表明只要建立正确的激励机制，肯尼亚北部的社会保护区（也就是专门划定用于保护野生动物的区域）是景观（以及大象）保护的一种非常有效的形式。


This is important because in countries like Kenya and Tanzania, the majority of wildlife exists outside formally protected areas.	这一点之所以重要，是因为在肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚这样的国家，绝大多数野生动物都生活在正式划定的保护区以外。


Kenya should be commended for making a wise – and efficient – decision.	肯尼亚理当因为作出这一明智——而且高效的——决策而受到赞誉。


Its neighbors, as well as countries farther south, should follow its example.	其邻国以及更加靠南的非洲国家应当以其为榜样跟进。


Ideally, all range-state countries should destroy their stockpiles to overcome the regional collective action problem.	理想状况下，所有地区国家均应销毁象牙库存以解决地区集体行动问题。


Doing so would send an unmistakable signal to the global market: Ivory is not for sale, not now and not in the future.	这样做会向全球市场发出明确无误的信号：即象牙不允许出售，无论是现在还是将来。


Toward a People-Centered ASEAN Community	通往以人民为中心的东盟社会


SEOUL – I am delighted that my first meeting with the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations comes at a historic moment: the 50th anniversary of ASEAN’s founding.	首尔—很高兴我与东南亚国家联盟领导人的第一次会晤正逢历史时刻：东盟成立50周年。


During those 50 years, not only my country, the Republic of Korea, but almost all of Asia has been utterly transformed.	在这50年里，我的祖国韩国以及几乎整个亚洲都发生了翻天覆地的变化。


ASEAN’s role in harnessing and spreading economic dynamism has been essential to the region’s success.	东盟在促进和传播经济活力方面所起到的作用，对于亚洲地区的成功至关重要。


For Korea, ASEAN has undoubtedly been a special and valued friend.	对韩国来说，东盟是毋庸置疑的宝贵的特殊朋友。


Last year alone, some six million Koreans visited ASEAN member states, both as tourists and for business.	光是在去年，就有约六百万韩国人来到东盟成员国旅行，他们当中既有游客，也有商务人士。


Approximately 500,000 citizens of ASEAN member states now live and work in Korea, while roughly 300,000 Koreans live and work in ASEAN countries.	大约500,000东盟成员国公民现在在韩国生活和工作，大约300,000韩国人在东盟国家生活和工作。


This is one example of why Korea’s ties with ASEAN are more than just intergovernmental relations.	这是韩国与东盟的关系不仅局限于政府间关系的一个例子。


Our relationship is deepened in the most personal way possible, through the intertwining of so many individuals’ lives.	我们的关系因为如此多个体生活之间的牵挂，而通过最为个人化的方式得到了深化。


This fact should not surprise anyone.	这个事实并不足为奇。


ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together, which was endorsed by ASEAN leaders at their 27th Summit in November 2015, states that the group strives to be a “people-centered, people-oriented community” that seeks to build a caring and sharing society which is inclusive and where the well-being, livelihood, and welfare of the people are enhanced.	2015年11月，东盟领导人在第27次东盟峰会上推出了《东盟2025：携手前进》（ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together），该宣言指出，该集团致力于“以人民为中心、以人民为导向的社会”，寻求构建一个关怀共享的包容社会，让人民的福祉、生计和福利得到提升。


“People first” has been my longstanding political philosophy as well, and it is a vision in line with the spirit of Korea’s “candlelight revolution” that lit and heated up the winter in Korea a year ago.	“人民优先”也一直是我长期以来的政治哲学，它是一个和一年前照亮和温暖韩国的“烛光革命”精神异曲同工的愿景。


Korea and ASEAN share a common philosophy that values people, and that shared outlook will set the path that Korea and ASEAN take together in the years and decades ahead.	韩国和东盟有着共同的哲学，即注重人民，而这一共同前景将为韩国和东盟铺就未来几十年携手共进的道路。


Since 2010, Korea and ASEAN have made significant strides together as strategic partners.	2010年以来，韩国和东盟作为战略合作伙伴，一起取得了重大进步。


Korea-ASEAN cooperation so far, however, has remained focused mainly on government-led collaboration in political, security, and economic affairs.	但是，目前韩国-东盟合作仍然主要集中在政府领导的政治、安全和经济领域的合作项目。


I intend to help advance Korea-ASEAN relations while placing a high priority on the “people” – both Koreans and the people of ASEAN.	我想在助力韩国-东盟关系的同时，将“人民”列为工作重点——既包括韩国人，也包括东盟人民。


My vision is to create, in cooperation with ASEAN, a “peace-loving, people-centered community where all members are better off together.”	我的愿景，是与东盟一起建立一个“热爱和平、以人民为中心的社会，让所有成员的境况都能得到改善。


This can be summed up in “three Ps”: People, Prosperity, and Peace.	”这可以归结为“3P”：人民（People）、繁荣（Prosperity）和和平（Peace）。


To realize this vision, I will pursue “people-centered diplomacy.”	为了实现这一愿景，我将追求“以人民为中心的外交”。


So, from this point onward, cooperation between Korea and ASEAN will be developed in a way that respects public opinion among all of the peoples of our association, gains their support, and invites their hands-on participation.	因此，从这一点出发，韩国与东盟之间的合作将尊重我们中间所有民族的公共观念，赢得他们的支持，邀请他们躬身参与。


To this end, and in commemoration of ASEAN’s 50th anniversary, we have designated this year as “Korea-ASEAN Cultural Exchange Year,” and actively promoted various cultural and people-to-people exchanges.	在这方面，以及为了纪念东盟成立50周年，我们将今年定为“韩国-东盟文化交流年”，积极地推动不同文化之间和人际之间的交流。


Last September, the ASEAN Culture House (ACH) opened in Korea’s southern port city of Busan.	去年9月，东盟文化学院（ASEAN Culture House，ACH）在韩国南部的港口城市釜山开门。


The ACH is the first of its kind to be opened in an ASEAN dialogue partner country, and it is expected to serve as a hub for cultural and people-to-people exchanges between Korea and ASEAN members.	ACH是东盟对话伙伴国家开设的第一家此类学院，我们希望它成为韩国和东盟成员国之间文化和人际交流的枢纽。


The Korean government will spare no effort to expand these exchanges, especially among the young people who will lead Korea-ASEAN relations in the future.	韩国政府将全力以赴扩大这些交流，特别是在将成为未来韩国-东盟关系领导者的年轻人之间的交流。


We should also work to build a community of peace where people are safe.	我们还应该致力于构建一个人民可以安全地生活在其中的社会。


In Asia, we all are facing the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles, as well as non-traditional security threats, including terrorism, violent extremism, and cyber-attacks on our businesses, our social and civic infrastructure, and our official institutions.	在亚洲，我们都面临着朝鲜核武器和导弹所带来的威胁，除此之外还有非传统安全威胁，包括恐怖主义、暴力极端主义以及对我们的企业、我们的社会和民用基础设施，以及我们的官方机构的网络袭击。


The Korean government will strive to ensure that both Koreans and the people of ASEAN are able to lead happy and safe lives, which means cooperating with all ASEAN member states, at both the bilateral and multilateral level, to overcome the security challenges that we jointly face.	韩国政府将致力于确保韩国人和东盟人民能够过上幸福安全的生活，这意味着要与所有东盟成员国进行双边和多边层次的合作，以克服我们共同面对的安全挑战。


Finally, I will endeavor to promote greater mutual prosperity, which benefits citizens of both ASEAN and Korea.	最后，我将竭尽全力促进更大的共同繁荣，让东盟和韩国公民共同受益。


To ensure the sustainability of people-centered cooperation, all countries in the region must grow and develop together.	为了确保以人民为中心的合作的可持续性，所有域内国家必须实现共同增长和发展。


Creating a structure for mutual prosperity requires lowering regional and transnational barriers to facilitate the flow of goods and promote people-to-people interactions.	为构建一个共同繁荣构架需要消除地区和跨国壁垒，以便利商品流动、促进人际交流。


In short, ASEAN’s dynamism must now be tied to its inclusiveness.	简言之，东盟的活力现在已经与其包容性紧密相连。


That is why Korea will actively support the “Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025” and “Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) Work Plan,” both of which call for enhancing the connectivity between ASEAN economies and citizens.	因此，韩国将积极支持“2025年东盟联动性总体规划”（Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025）和“东盟一体化（IAI）工作计划方案”（Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) Work Plan），两者都要求加强东盟经济体和公民之间的联动性。


We will also accelerate the pace of negotiations for the further liberalization of a Korea-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA), in order to pave the way for freer and more inclusive growth in the region.	我们还将加快韩国-东盟自由贸易协定（FTA）进一步自由化的谈判，从而为更自由、更包容的地区增长铺平道路。


Korea is now preparing for yet another “hot” winter: the PyeongChang Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, to be held in February 2018.	目前，韩国正在准备有一个“热”冬天：将在2018年2月举行的平昌冬奥会和冬残奥会。


Our preparations are focused on ensuring that these Games deliver a message of reconciliation, peace, mutual understanding, and cooperation throughout the world.	我们的准备工作的重点是要确保这次冬奥会传递全世界和谐、和平、互相理解以及合作的精神。


I happily invite you all to discover a peaceful and joyous winter in PyeongChang, and experience the dynamism sweeping through Korea and ASEAN.	我愉快地邀请你们所有人来平昌渡过一个和平快乐的冬季，体验韩国和东盟无处不在的活力。


Don’t miss an opportunity to find out and enjoy what Korea and ASEAN share in common.	不要错过发现和享受韩国和东盟共同点的机会。


Securing Land Rights in Africa	保护非洲土地权利


WASHINGTON, DC – Earlier this month, Liberian President and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf warned that Africa would continue to be stalked by poverty, hunger, and famine until governments provide smallholder farmers with secure rights to land.	华盛顿—本月早些时候，利比里亚总统、诺贝尔和平奖得主赛尔利夫（Ellen Johnson Sirleaf）警告说，非洲将一直受到贫困、饥饿和饥荒困扰，除非政府让小农获得有保障的土地权利。


She was speaking from experience, both personal and political.	她是从经验的角度——包括个人经验和政治经验——说这番话的。


Sirleaf and her tiny West African country are perfect examples of the steep toll that insecure land rights take on individuals, communities, and countries.	赛尔利夫和她的西非小国是土地权利得不到保障可能对个人、社区和国家造成怎样的代价的最佳写照。


Disputes over land ownership were a key driver of Liberia’s bloody 14-year civil war.	土地所有权争议是利比里亚14年血腥内战的重要原因。


And overlapping claims to land continue to foment conflict and impede foreign investment.	犬牙交错的土地所有权一直在煽动冲突，阻碍外国投资。


Not even the president is immune to weak land-tenure laws; squatters invaded a four-acre parcel that Sirleaf bought in 1979, and refused to move for years.	就连总统也无法摆脱土地所有制法律不够强力的影响； 她在1979年购买的一片四英亩的土地被人占用，在很多年里拒绝离开。


Stories like these can be heard across the continent.	这些故事在非洲大陆稀松平常。


According to the World Bank, more than 90% of Africa’s rural land is undocumented.	据世界银行数据，九成以上的非洲农村土地没有登记在案。


Overlapping and conflicting land-management systems are the norm, as are inaccessible, out-of-date, incomplete, inaccurate, or nonexistent land records.	重叠且冲突的土地管理制度随处可见，土地记录难以查阅，或早已过时，或记录不全，或不够准确，甚至根本不存在。


But while dysfunctional systems of land tenure have no doubt cost African governments millions in foreign investment, they have hurt African farmers most directly.	然而，尽管土地所有权制度的瘫痪毫无疑问让非洲政府损失了数百万美元的外国投资，但最直接的受害者还是非洲农民。


Africa’s small family farmers – already burdened by soil degradation, climate change, and resource competition fueled by surging populations – face an even more challenging bureaucratic hurdle: no paper to prove that the land they call home is theirs.	非洲的小自耕农因为土地退化、气候变化和人口激增导致的资源竞争而不堪重负，还要面临更加难以克服的官僚主义障碍：没有文件可以证明他们称为家园的土地是他们的。


Uncertain of their ability to control their farms into the next season, farmers’ planning horizons shrink.	这些农民不确定自己是否能够在下一季还能控制自己的农场，因此不会进行长期规划。


Instead of investing in terraced fields, planting trees, and buying high-quality fertilizer, Africa’s farmers seek to maximize short-term profits.	他们不会投资于梯田、植树和购买高质量肥料，只会追求短期利润最大化。


This is particularly true of female farmers, who face an additional thicket of discriminatory land laws and customs.	对于女性农民来说尤其如此，她们还需要面临更多的各种歧视性土地法律和风俗。


Studies show there is no way to reduce poverty, improve nutrition, or achieve other key development goals without strengthening land rights, especially for women.	研究表明，如果不能强化土地权利，特别是女性的土地权利，就无法减少贫困，改善营养，或实现其他关键发展目标。


Secure rights to land are simply a prerequisite of development.	确保土地权利是发展的前提。


In Tanzania, women with secure rights earn three times more than their landless counterparts.	在坦桑尼亚，拥有有保障权利的女性，要比无土地女同胞多赚三倍收入。


In Nepal, children whose mothers have secure land rights are 33% more likely to be well nourished.	在尼泊尔，拥有有保障土地权利的妇女的孩子获得良好营养的可能性要高出33%。


And in Zambia, in areas where women’s land rights are weak and HIV infection rates are high, women are less likely to make investments to improve harvests – even when their husbands are not HIV positive.	在赞比亚，女性土地权利较弱而艾滋病传染率较高的地区，女性更加不可能通过投资改善收成——即使她们的丈夫艾滋病呈阴性时也是如此。


These women anticipate that they will be forced off their land if and when they are widowed, and that expectation depresses farm investment, affecting harvests and family nutrition for years.	这些女性认为，如果她们成为寡妇，就会被迫失去土地，这一预期抑制了农场投资，在很多年里影响到收成和家庭营养。


Given that there are 400 million female farmers, such findings suggest the high global costs – measured in terms of lost productivity and unrealized economic potential – of insecure land rights for women.	女性农民数量高达4亿，因此，这些发现表明，从生产率损失和经济潜力无法实现的角度，女性土地权利得不到保障会带来高昂的全球代价。


In Africa, the signs of insecure land rights are literally etched into the landscape.	在非洲，土地权利得不到保障的迹象确然存在。


In some regions, poor recordkeeping and weak administrative structures have forced landowners to post notices in their fields or on their homes, warning prospective buyers that they may be duped into purchasing parcels from people who are not the legitimate owners.	在一些地区，记录保存不力和行政结构虚弱迫使土地所有者立碑标记他们的土地或房子，警告潜在买家，他们可能陷入并非合法所有者的圈套，让钱打了水漂。


In many countries, there is simply no way to know who owns what piece of property.	在许多国家，根本没有办法知道谁用哪片土地。


Communities with clear legal control over land manage those resources more assiduously than those with shaky tenure.	对土地拥有明确的法律控制权的社区，相较于土地所有权模糊不清的社区，能够更加勤勉地管理这些资源。


The same can be said for individuals.	个人也是如此。


In Ghana, farmers with strong land rights are 39% more likely to plant trees.	在加纳，拥有强力土地权利的农民，植树的可能性要高出39%。


In Ethiopia, farmers are 60% more likely to invest in preventing soil erosion when they have secure rights to their plots.	在埃塞俄比亚，当农民对土地的的权利得到了保障时，投资于防止水土流失的可能性可以提高60%。


But while the evidence is clear, nearly one billion people worldwide continue to lack secure rights to the land they rely on for a living.	然而，尽管证据确凿，全世界有十亿人，仍然无法获得对他们赖以生存的土地的有保障的权利。


As the Cadasta Foundation and Habitat for Humanity’s Solid Ground campaign recently demonstrated in a new online survey, these uncertainties have far-reaching consequences.	卡达斯塔基金会和仁爱之家（Habitat for Humanity）的Solid Ground运动最近进行了一次在线调查，结果表明，这些不确定性造成了严重后果。


Weak land rights can limit farmers’ access to crop insurance, make it difficult for their children to register for school, and can even contribute to higher rates of suicide.	虚弱的土地权利可能限制农民得不到农作物保险，导致他们的孩子难以在学校注册就读，甚至可能导致更高的自杀率。


Currently, Liberia’s Senate is considering legislation that would dramatically strengthen land rights for farmers, including female farmers.	目前，利比里亚参议院正在考虑能大大增强农民（包括女性农民）土地权利的立法。


Many other countries in Africa (notably Rwanda and Zambia) and in Asia (including Myanmar and India) have done, or are planning to do, the same.	其他许多非洲国家（主要有卢旺达和赞比亚）和亚洲国家（包括缅甸和印度）也进行或计划进行类似的立法。


These efforts should be supported, expedited, and replicated.	这些措施应该得到支持、加速和复制。


Yet people are not waiting for their leaders to act.	但人们并没有坐等领导人采取行动。


Innovative technologies are already providing a path forward for communities in countries with unwilling or incapable governments.	创新技术已经开始为政府不愿或无力作为的国家的社区提供方法。


Advances in GPS, drones, and cloud computing have given communities the ability to document land – with or without official recognition or support.	GPS、无人机和云计算等技术进步让社区能够登记土地——不管有没有官方承认或支持。


Together with the Cadasta Foundation, communities from Nigeria to India are using hand-held devices to map property and support land claims with hard evidence, thereby allowing for incremental strengthening of tenure.	从尼日利亚到印度，社区在卡达斯塔基金会的帮助下，御用手持设备丈量土地，用硬证据支持土地权利主张，从而实现土地所有权的逐步强化。


Liberia’s drive to spearhead a continent-wide overhaul of land rights is welcome; leaders like Sirleaf clearly understand the challenges that come with weak land laws.	利比里亚在非洲土地确权运动中充当先锋是值得欢迎的； 向赛尔利夫这样的领导人，显然明白虚弱的土地法会带来怎样的挑战。


But structural changes will take time.	但结构性变化需要时间。


In the absence of more assertive government intervention, it will be up to communities and individuals to leapfrog conventional efforts and fill in the blank spaces on the map.	如果政府不进行更大手笔的干预，就必须依靠社区和个人越过传统方式，填补地图上的空白空间。


Natural Solutions to Climate Change	气候变化的自然解决方案


OXFORD – In response to climate change, land is key.	牛津—在应对气候变化的问题上，土地是关键。


Today, agriculture, forestry, and other land uses account for roughly a quarter of global greenhouse-gas emissions.	如今，农业、林业和其他土地用途产生了大约四分之一的全球温室气体排放。


But adopting sustainable land management strategies could provide more than one-third of the near-term emission reductions needed to keep warming well below the target – 2°C above pre-industrial levels – set by the Paris climate agreement.	但采取可持续土地管理战略能够贡献实现巴黎气候协定所指定的、将全球变暖控制在前工业化水平以上2℃以内的目标所需要的短期减排量的三分之一强。


Conservation organizations like mine have long been working to balance the interaction between people and nature.	像我们这样的保护组织，长期以来一直致力于在人和自然之间形成互动平衡。


But only recently have we fully grasped just how important land-use management is in addressing climate change.	但直到最近，我们才意识到土地使用管理对于解决气候变化问题的重要意义。


With the development of remote sensing, artificial intelligence, and biogeochemical modeling, we can better forecast outcomes, and develop strategies to manage and minimize adverse consequences.	随着遥感、人工智能和生物化学建模的发展，我们能够更好地预测结果，并制定管理和最小化消极后果的战略。


Some of the most promising ways to mitigate climate change are what we call “natural climate solutions”: the conservation, restoration, and improved management of land, in order to increase carbon storage or avoid greenhouse-gas emissions in landscapes worldwide.	我们将其中一些前景最光明的遏制气候变化的方法称为“自然气候解决方案”：保护、修复和加强土地管理，从而提升固碳能力或避免全世界土地排放温室气体。


The full potential of these solutions is detailed in a new study produced by my organization, the Nature Conservancy, and 15 other leading institutions.	我的组织——大自然保护协会和其他十五家领先机构所进行的一项新研究详细计算了这些方案的总潜力。


Among the most important natural climate solutions is protecting “frontier forests” – pristine woodlands that serve as natural carbon sinks.	最重要的自然气候解决方案之一是保护“前线森林”（frontier forests）——起到天然碳汇（carbon sink）作用的原始森林。


Intact tropical and northern forests, as well as savannas and coastal ecosystems, store huge amounts of carbon accumulated over centuries.	完整的热带和北方森林，以及稀树草原和海岸生态系统，几百年来累积储存了为数巨大的碳。


When these areas are disturbed, carbon is released.	如果这些区域遭到破坏，碳就会被释放。


Preservation of frontier habitats also helps regulate water flows, reduces the risk of flooding, and maintains biodiversity.	保护前线栖息地也有助于管理水流，降低洪水风险，并维持生物多样性。


Reforestation is another important natural solution.	造林是另一项重要的自然解决方案。


Globally, an estimated two billion hectares (4.9 billion acres) of land has been deforested or degraded.	全球而言，据估计有二十亿公顷土地被采伐或退化。


Because trees are the best carbon-capture-and-storage technology the world has, reversing these numbers would bring a significant reduction in global carbon levels.	树木是世界所拥有的最好的碳捕捉和储存技术，因此扭转这一趋势将显著降低全球碳水平。


We estimate that the world could capture three gigatons of CO2 annually – equivalent to taking more than 600 million cars off the roads – simply by planting more trees.	我们估算，只需要种更多的树，世界每年就能够捕捉三十亿吨二氧化碳——相当于6亿辆汽车的排放量。


A third category of natural solution is agricultural reform.	第三类自然解决方案是农业改革。


From field to fork, the food sector is a major contributor to climate change through direct and indirect emissions, and by its often-negative effects on soil health and deforestation.	从田间到餐桌，食品部门是气候变化的主要“贡献者”，它们直接和间接排放二氧化碳，还带来通常是消极的土地健康影响和森林采伐。


Recognizing these risks, 23 global companies – including Nestlé, McDonald’s, Tesco, and Unilever – recently signed a commitment to halt deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado savanna.	认识到这些风险，23家跨国公司——包括雀巢、麦当劳、乐购和联合利华——最近签署承诺不再在巴西的塞拉多（Cerrado）稀树草原进行采伐活动。


The region, which covers a quarter of the country, has come under growing pressure from production of beef, soy, and other commodities, together with the associated infrastructure.	该地区占巴西国土面积的四分之一，因为牛肉、大豆和大宗商品的生产以及相关基础设施的建设而日益饱受压力。


As the Cerrado pledge demonstrates, when governments and businesses come together to address land-use challenges, the impact is potent.	塞拉多承诺表明，当政府和企业齐心协力解决土地使用的挑战时，影响是巨大的。


Natural climate solutions have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by an estimated 11.3 billion tons a year – equal to a complete halt in burning oil, according to our study.	根据我们的研究，自然气候解决方案有潜力让二氧化碳年排放量减少大约113亿吨——相当于完全停止燃烧石油。


One recent study calculated that if Brazil reached zero deforestation by 2030, it would add 0.6% of GDP, or about $15 billion, to its economy.	一项最新研究计算，如果巴西到2030年实现零采伐，能够让其经济的GDP增加0. 6%，或150亿美元。


Communities also reap secondary benefits – such as rural regeneration, improved food and water security, and coastal resilience – when natural climate solutions are implemented.	社会则是实施自然气候解决方案的第二受益人——好处包括农业再生、粮食和水安全改善和海岸恢复力。


Yet, despite the data supporting better land-use decision-making, something isn’t adding up.	然而，尽管数据支持更好的土地使用决策，但情况并不“给力”。


In 2016, the world witnessed a dramatic 51% increase in forest loss, equivalent to an area about the size of New Zealand.	2016年，全世界森林流失量增加了51%，相当于新西兰的面积。


We need to buck this trend now, and help the world realize that land-use planning is not simply a conservation story.	我们需要从现在开始扭转这一趋势，并帮助全世界认识到土地使用规划不仅仅是为了保护。


Some countries are moving in the right direction.	一些国家正在向正确的方向迈进。


The Indian government, for example, has set aside $6 billion for states to invest in forest restoration.	比如，印度政府为各邦准备了用于60亿美元森林再植。


In Indonesia, the government created a dedicated agency to protect and restore peatlands, bogs, and swamp-like ecosystems that have immense CO2 storage capabilities.	在印度尼西亚，政府成立了一个专门的机构来保护和重建有着无比巨大的二氧化碳储存能力的湿地、泥地和沼泽类生态系统。


But they are the exceptions.	但也有例外。


Of the 160 countries that committed to implementing the Paris climate agreement, only 36 have specified land-use management in their emissions-reduction strategies.	在160个承诺实施巴黎气候协定的国家中，36个在减排战略中详细阐述了土地使用管理。


Overcoming inertia will not be easy.	克服惰性绝非易事。


Forests, farms, and coasts vary in size, type, and accessibility.	森林、农场和海岸的规模、类型和接近的进入的便利程度各不相同。


Moreover, the lives of hundreds of millions of people are tied to these ecosystems, and projects that restore forest cover or improve soil health require focused planning, a massive undertaking for many governments.	此外地，数亿人的生活与这些生态系统息息相关，重塑森林覆盖或改善土地健康的项目需要注重规划，这对许多政府来说一件大事。


One way to get things moving, especially in the agricultural sector, would be to remove or redirect subsidies that encourage excessive consumption of fertilizers, water, or energy in food production.	一种推动进步，特别是农业部门进步的方法是取消或重新定位鼓励在粮食生产过程中过度使用肥料、水或能源的补贴。


As Indian government officials reminded their peers during a World Trade Organization meeting earlier this year, meaningful agricultural reforms can begin only when rich countries reduce the “disproportionately large” subsidies they give their own farmers.	印度政府官员在今年早些时候的世界贸易组织会议上提醒其他国家的同僚，有意义的农业改革只有在富裕国家减少他们对本国农民的“畸高”补贴后，才能开始。


Supporting innovation and entrepreneurship can also help power change.	支持创新和企业家精神也有助于权力变化。


New processes and technologies in landscape planning, soil analysis, irrigation, and even alternative proteins such as plant-based meat are making agriculture and land use more sustainable.	土地规划、土壤分析、灌溉甚至素肉等替代蛋白质等方面的新流程和技术正在让农业和土地使用变得更加可持续。


Similarly, changes in the construction industry, which is turning to more efficiently produced products like cross-laminated timber (CLT), can help reduce carbon pollution.	类似地，建筑业正在向交叉层压材（CLT）等高效生产的产品转变，这也有助于减少碳污染。


Finally, financing options for natural climate solutions must be dramatically increased.	最后，自然气候解决方案选项的融资应该大大提高。


While payments to conserve forests are starting to flow under the UN’s REDD+ program, and the Green Climate Fund has committed $500 million for forest protection payments, total public investment in sustainable land use remains inadequate.	保护森林的支付开始在联合国REDD+计划的支持下流动起来，绿色气候基金（Green Climate Fund）也将为森林保护提供5亿美元。 但可持续土地使用方面的总公共投资仍然不足。


According to the Climate Policy Initiative, public financing for agriculture, forestry, and land-use mitigation attracted just $3 billion in 2014, compared to $49 billion for renewable energy generation and $26 billion for energy efficiency.	据气候政策行动（Climate Policy Initiative）的数据，缓解农业、林业和土地使用问题的公共融资，在2014年只实现了30亿美元，而可再生能源生产获得了490亿美元，能源效率问题获得了260亿美元。


At the UN climate change meeting that just concluded in Bonn, Germany, global leaders reaffirmed that the world cannot respond adequately to rising temperatures if governments continue ignoring how forests, farms, and coasts are managed.	在刚刚在德国波恩结束的联合国气候变化会议上，全球领导人重申，如果政府继续忽视如何管理森林、农场和海岸的问题，世界就无法对升温做出足够的应对。


Now that there is a firm consensus, governments must act on it.	如今，我们已经有了一个扎实的共识，政府必须据此行动。


How Best to Promote Research and Development	促进研发的最佳政策


CAMBRIDGE – Start-ups, incubators, accelerators, angel capital, venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, a liquid stock market, techno-parks, a major university or two, and a group of specialized law firms.	剑桥——初创企业、孵化器、加速器、天使基金、风险投资、并购、首发上市、流动的股票市场、科技园区、一两所重点大学和一批专业律所。


Many believe that once you have built up this ecosystem, à la Silicon Valley, you can become the next Route 128 in Massachusetts, the next Research Triangle in North Carolina, or the next Start-Up Israel.	许多人相信一旦建立起这样的硅谷生态系统，你就可以打造出下一条马萨诸塞州128号公路、坐拥下一个北卡罗来纳州三角研究园或者初创阶段的以色列。


But, while success breeds imitation, the opposite is often not the case.	但虽然成功往往能引来群起模仿，但反之却往往并不成立。


Complex structures with many interdependent pieces are not created out of whole cloth.	各部分相互依赖的复杂结构往往无法一蹴而就地建立。


They emerge from idiosyncratic path-dependent processes, whereby each organizational innovation changes the ecosystem, making other changes feasible.	它们来源于这样或那样各具特色的进程，机构创新将改变生态系统，从而导致其他变化成为可能。


Trying to copy the resulting ecosystem is like trying to build a bridge with no scaffolding: it cannot be done, because the structure cannot bear its own weight while it is being built.	想简单复制最终的生态系统就像试图不用脚手架修建一座大桥一样，因为各部分结构在修建过程中无法承受自重，所以这样的任务根本就不可能完成。


Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy.	显然，以初创为基础的创新战略具有一定的吸引力。


It feels democratic, accessible, and so California.	它让人感觉民主、触手可及，而且这也是加利福尼亚州的风格。


But it is definitely not the only way to boost R&D, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.	但它绝对不是推动研发的唯一途径，甚至都不是主要途径，而且肯定不是美国二十世纪绝大多数重大创新的实现方式。


The alternative strategy lies at the opposite end of the distribution of firm size – with big business.	另一种策略有赖于企业规模分布的另外一端——也就是大企业。


Joseph Schumpeter stumbled onto these two approaches at different points in his life.	约瑟夫·熊彼特在生命的不同阶段偶然发现了这两种方式。


When he published The Theory of Economic Development in 1911 at age 28, he emphasized that innovation came from the spirit of entrepreneurs in a process of creative destruction.	1911年28岁的他发表经济发展理论一书时，强调创新来源于企业家的创造性破坏精神。


By 1942 when a 59-year-old Schumpeter published the book Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, he realized that a lot of the innovation was coming from very large corporations that faced rather limited competition.	而到1942年，59岁的熊彼特出版资本主义、社会主义和民主一书时，他意识到许多创新其实都来源于面临竞争非常有限的大型企业。


A paradigmatic example is the American Telephone and Telegraph Company (AT&T) and its Bell Labs, a story meticulously recounted by Jon Gertner in his 2012 book The Idea Factory.	典型的例子是美国电话电报公司（AT&T）及其旗下的贝尔实验室，这是乔·格尼特在其2012年的著作理念工厂中精心讲述的一个故事。


The research, discoveries, and products that emerged from this single entity are astounding: not only reliable relays and switches for landline telephony, but also radar, lasers, the transistor, the integrated circuit, the fax machine, satellite communications, Shannon’s information theory, the theory of computation, six sigma quality control, and even cosmic microwave background radiation.	上述单一实体所得出的科研成果、发现和产品令人震惊：不仅包括质量可靠的固定电话继电器和开关，还包括雷达、激光、晶体管、集成电路、传真机、卫星通讯、香农信息理论、计算理论、六西格玛质量控制甚至宇宙微波背景辐射。


All of this happened inside a corporate behemoth, which could afford the lab thanks to its monopoly on local telephony and on the equipment used to provide the service, which was manufactured by AT&T’s subsidiary, Western Electric.	所有这些都来源于这家庞然大物般的企业，这家企业有能力创新是因为垄断了当地电话服务以及提供这种服务的设备，制造上述设备由美国电话电报公司的子公司西部电器负责。


AT&T’s monopoly position was always controversial in the competition-minded US regulatory system.	美国电话电报公司的垄断地位在具有强烈竞争意识的美国监管体系中一直备受争议。


So the company had to earn the right to be a monopolist by constantly improving its service and using its research power for national purposes such as military defense. To renew its corporate charter in 1956, it even had to agree to license all of its old patents royalty-free and to license all new patents at low cost.	因此这家公司为了保住垄断权，不得不持续提高服务水平并为国家和军事防御贡献其研究能力，为了在1956年延续其公司章程，美国电话电报公司甚至被迫同意免除所有旧专利的版权费并以低价出售新专利。


If AT&T had to be a monopoly, it had to be a monopoly that benefited society at large, not just its shareholders, through breakthrough research.	如果美国电话电报公司必须是一家垄断企业，那么它必须是一家能够通过突破性研究惠及大众、而不仅仅是为股东赚钱的垄断企业。


Organizing research and development within a large corporation may be much less challenging than trying to generate the complex ecosystem that a start-up approach would require (which may be why the first preceded the second historically).	在大企业中组织研发可能比试图在初创企业创造出复杂的生态系统要容易得多（这或许是大企业在历史上一直优于初创企业的理由）。


Access to finance, managerial resources, incubation, acceleration, oversight, and accumulated experience may be much easier to achieve.	获取资金、管理资源、孵化、加速、监管和积累经验实现起来可能容易得多。


And a large corporation may be more patient than angel and venture capitalists – and thus more willing to take risks and bet on longer-term projects, as AT&T did.	而大型企业可能比天使和风险投资资本更有耐心——而且像美国电话电报公司那样更愿意冒险押注于更长期的项目。


This is not just a twentieth-century story.	这绝不仅仅是20世纪的故事。


The bulk of R&D spending today occurs within large corporations.	今天大部分的研发费用都发生在大公司内部。


The world’s largest R&D companies, measured by their budgets, are Volkswagen, Samsung, Intel, Microsoft, Roche, Novartis, Toyota, Johnson & Johnson, Google, and Merck.	按照预算衡量， 全世界最大的研发企业包括大众、三星、英特尔、微软、罗氏、诺华、丰田、强生、谷歌和默克。


None operates out of its parents’ garage while awaiting an infusion of venture capital.	其中没有一家是在创始人父母的车库里运营，同时眼巴巴地等待着风险资本的注入。


Developing an R&D capacity is critical for many middle-income countries, and both the World Bank and the regional development banks have programs to help.	发展研发能力对中等收入国家来讲至关重要，世界银行和区域开发银行都有专门提供帮助的项目。


Most often, these programs are inspired by the start-up culture of Silicon Valley.	多数情况下，这些项目都受到硅谷创业文化的启发。


Examples include Start-Up Chile and Ruta N in Colombia, which attempt to create complex ecosystems from scratch.	实际的例子包括试图从头开始创建复杂生态系统的“启动智利”计划和哥伦比亚的Ruta N计划。


Israel is often cited as a precedent for such efforts.	以色列往往被视为上述领域的先驱。


But Israeli start-ups exist in an ecosystem created by decades of public investment in military R&D. In the meantime, countries like Chile and Colombia have given a free pass to their large conglomerates, which could be the kernel of the more conventional corporation-centered approach.	但数十年军事研发领域的公共投资是以色列初创企业赖以存在的生态基础。 与此同时，像智利和哥伦比亚这样的国家已经向国内大型企业集团提供了免费通行证，这或许是相对传统的以公司为中心策略的核心内容。


For example, it was Australia’s BHP Billiton, not state-owned CODELCO or privately owned Antofagasta, that launched an R&D effort on mining technologies in Chile.	举例来说，在智利启动采矿技术研发的是澳大利亚的必和必拓，而不是国有的智利国家铜业公司（CODELCO ）或私有的安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）。


More broadly, middle-income countries are not short of companies with significant financial and managerial resources and plenty of market power.	从更广义的角度看，中等收入国家并不缺乏手握大量金融和管理资源及市场权力的企业。


But these firms have been mostly missing in action in terms of innovation and R&D, as a recent study by the Inter-American Development Bank has shown.	但就像美洲开发银行最近一项研究所显示的那样，这些企业大都缺乏创新和研发领域的行动。


As societies consider their R&D strategies, they must find ways to coax their largest corporations into a more AT&T-like bargain.	社会在思考研发策略的同时，必须想方设法促使大型企业更多采取像美国电话电报公司这样的行动。


If citizens are to tolerate or even support these companies’ power, companies must use it in ways that bring outsize benefits to the rest of society.	如果想要民众容忍甚至支持这些企业的权力，那么它们就必须以能为社会创造最大利益的方式来使用它。


Their R&D budgets, their patent history, and their innovations are part of what they should brag about in public.	他们的研发预算、专利历史和创新发明应当是他们能在公众场合吹嘘的理由。


A more demanding public policy may generate a more dynamic corporate sector.	要求更加严格的公共政策可能带来更具活力的企业部门。


In the case of AT&T, it was the looming threat of break-up or forced divestment that did the trick.	具体到美国电话电报公司，拆分或强制撤资的威胁迫在眉睫成功地促使它加大了研发投入。


With large emerging-market conglomerates, a “tough love” approach, rather than just more tax incentives, has, to my knowledge, never been tried outside of South Korea.	而对大型新兴市场综合企业而言，这种“严厉之爱”、而不仅仅是提供更多的税收优惠据我所知从未在韩国以外的其他国家尝试过。


It could be a win-win proposition, even for the start-ups.	即使对初创企业而言，这也可能带来双赢的结果。


Inside the Mind of the Mass Shooter	枪击犯思维剖析


LONDON – This weekend, Stephen Paddock opened fire on a country music festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, from an overlooking hotel, killing at least 59 people and injuring more than 500 others.	伦敦—这个周末，史蒂芬·帕多克（Stephen Paddock）在内华达州拉斯维加斯的一家饭店居高临下朝一个乡村音乐节开火，至少杀害了59人，伤及500多人。


Paddock, a 64-year-old former accountant with no criminal record, was ultimately found in his hotel room, dead, with some 23 guns, including more than ten assault weapons.	帕多克今年64岁，曾经是一名会计师，没有犯罪记录，最后他被发现在饭店房间中，已经死亡，身边有23支枪，其中包括十多支突击武器。


Police later found an additional 19 firearms, explosives, and several thousands of rounds of ammunition in Paddock’s home.	随后警察又在帕多克家中找到了另外19支枪、炸弹和数千发子弹。


What the authorities have not yet found, however, is a motive.	但当局仍未找到他的作案动机。


More details about Paddock’s mindset and objectives will probably come to light in the coming days.	随后几天，更多关于帕多克心理和目标的细节有可能会揭露。


But so-called “lone wolf” mass shooters – individual perpetrators with no ties to any movement or ideology – are not a new phenomenon, and these episodes have offered important clues about the motivations and thought processes of mass shooters.	但所谓的“独狼”枪击犯——与任何运动和意识形态都没有什么关系的犯罪个体——并非新现象，这些案件为枪击犯的动机和思维过程提供了重要线索。


Most mass shooters do not survive their own attacks; they either kill themselves or let police do the job.	大部分枪击犯都不会在他们自己造成的袭击案中活下来； 他们要么自杀，要么让警察击毙。


But those who have survived have shown some common features, with narcissistic personality disorder and paranoid schizophrenia being the two most frequent diagnoses.	但活下来的那些枪击犯，表现出一些共同特征，自恋型人格障碍和偏执型精神分裂是最常见的两个诊断。


That was the case with Anders Breivik, the Norwegian far-right terrorist who, in 2011, detonated a van bomb that killed eight people, before shooting dead 69 participants in a youth summer camp.	安德斯·布雷维克（Anders Breivik）就是如此，这位挪威极右翼恐怖分子在2011年引爆汽车炸弹杀死了八人，然后在一家青少年夏令营射杀69名营员。


He remains in prison in Norway.	他仍然在挪威服刑。


A look at behavior prior to attacks reinforces this view.	如果研究一下袭击前的行为，会强化这一观点。


In The Wiley Handbook of the Psychology of Mass Shootings, Grant Duwe, the director of research and evaluation for the Minnesota Department of Corrections, examined 160 cases of mass shootings in the United States between 1915 and 2013.	在《威利枪击犯心理学手册》（The Wiley Handbook of the Psychology of Mass Shootings）中，明尼苏达惩治局（Department of Corrections）研究和评估主管格兰特·杜威（Grant Duwe）考察了1915年至2013年间的160起在美国发生的枪击案。


Duwe found that 60% of the perpetrators had either been diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder or exhibited signs of serious mental disturbance before the attack.	杜威发现，60%的罪犯在作案前辈诊断为精神障碍或表现出严重精神异常的迹象。


About one third had contact with mental-health professionals, who had diagnosed them, most commonly, with paranoid schizophrenia.	大约三分之一的罪犯与精神科专业人士有联系，他们最常见的诊断是偏执型精神分裂症。


The second most common diagnosis was depression.	第二常见的诊断是抑郁症。


Yet, given that most people who suffer from these disorders are harmless to the public, these diagnoses do not tell the whole story.	但是，由于大部分这些精神障碍患者都对公众无害，因此这些诊断不是全部原因。


According to Duwe, the difference may lie partly in an acute sense of being persecuted – and an acute desire for revenge.	杜威认为，区别也许部分源自一种强烈的被迫害感——以及强烈的复仇渴望。


This view is corroborated by Paul Mullen, an Australian forensic psychiatrist.	这一观点得到了澳大利亚精神科法医保罗·穆伦（Paul Mullen）的证实。


Based on a detailed investigation of five mass murderers whom he personally examined, Mullen concluded that such killers struggle to reconcile their own grandiose ideas of themselves with an inability to succeed at work or in relationships.	基于对他经手的对五名杀人狂的详细调查，穆伦认为这些杀手难以协调自视甚高和无法胜任工作或关系之间的矛盾。


The only explanation, they decide, is that others are out to sabotage them.	他们因此认定，唯一的解释是其他人蓄意陷害他们。


In fact, Mullen’s study revealed that the path to mass murder is rather stereotypical.	事实上，穆伦的研究揭示了杀人狂之路非常老套。


All of Mullen’s subjects had been bullied or socially excluded as children.	所有穆伦的研究对象在孩提时代都遭到过恐吓或被社会排斥。


They were all suspicious and rigid, qualities that helped to deepen their isolation.	他们都多疑而死板，而这些特质加深了他们的孤立。


They constantly blamed their problems on others, believing that their community had rejected them; they failed to consider that they themselves were too wearisome or self-centered.	他们总是将他们的问题归咎于其他人，认为社会拒绝他们； 他们没能认识到是他们自己乏善可陈或自我中心。


Mullen’s subjects obsessively held grudges against anyone whom they viewed as part of the group or community that refused to accept them.	穆伦的研究对象对任何被他们视为拒绝接受他们的群体或社会的一部分的人，都持有最大的仇恨。


They ruminated relentlessly over past humiliations, a habit that fueled resentment and, eventually, revenge fantasies, leading them to use mass murder to achieve infamy and to hurt those perceived to have hurt them – even if it meant a “welcome death” for themselves.	他们深陷过去的羞辱中无法自拔，这一习性助长了仇恨，最终形成复仇幻想，诱使他们用大规模杀戮来实现恶名，伤害那些被视为伤害过他们的人——即使这意味着他们自己也受到“欢迎死亡”（welcome death）。


Given this, there is usually a kind of warped logic to mass shooters’ choice of victims.	因此，枪击犯在选择受害者时常常有一套扭曲的逻辑。


In the case of school shootings, such as the Columbine High School massacre of 1999, that logic is clear: to punish those who have excluded the perpetrators socially.	在校园枪击案中，如1999年科伦拜恩高中（Columbine High School）大屠杀，这一逻辑显而易见：惩罚在社交上排斥罪犯的人。


Likewise, workplace rampages are often triggered by a firing or layoff.	类似地，职场暴力常常由解雇或裁员引发。


But even in cases where the targets seem random, the logic usually emerges eventually, even if it is a matter of punishing an entire community or society.	但即使在目标貌似随机的案件中，这一逻辑最终也会浮现，即使是惩罚整个社区或社会的案子也不例外。


In Paddock’s case, many questions obviously remain unanswered, beginning with why he chose that particular concert to attack.	帕多克案显然还有很多未解之谜。 首先是他为什么要选择这个音乐会作为袭击对象。


But the contours of his story are beginning to emerge.	但他的故事的轮廓已经开始显现。


Reinforcing the loner trope, one neighbor said that the “weird” Paddock “kept to himself”; living next to him was “like living next to nothing.”	一位邻居说，“奇怪的”帕多克“不与人来往”； 和他住隔壁“就像挨着空气住”，这强化了独来独往叙事。


It has also been revealed that in 2012, Paddock filed a negligence lawsuit against a Las Vegas hotel where he had fallen; litigiousness can be a hallmark of the resentful and paranoid.	另据披露，2012年帕多克对一家拉斯维加斯饭店提起诉讼，认为饭店的疏忽导致他摔跤； 诉讼可能是愤慨和偏执的标志。


Duwe argues that, contrary to popular belief, such gunmen do not “just snap.”	杜威指出，和流行的信念相反，这些抢手不会“突然着魔”。


Though roughly two-thirds of mass public shooters experience a traumatic event immediately before carrying out the attack – usually the loss of a job or relationship – most spend weeks or even years deliberating and preparing to get their revenge.	尽管大约三分之二的公共场合枪击犯在作案前夕遭到过创伤事件——通常是被炒或被甩——但大部分会花几周乃至几年时间思考和准备复仇。


In Paddock’s case, such quiet planning may explain the armory found in his home and hotel room, which he rented several days prior to the attack.	在帕多克案中，这一悄然计划阶段可以解释在他家中和饭店房间找到的武器，他在作案前几天租用了它们。


After the massacre, more than half of mass public shooters either commit suicide directly or provoke the police into killing them.	杀戮过后，大部分公共场合枪击犯要么直接自杀，要么诱使警察把自己杀掉。


This rate is nearly ten times higher than for homicide offenders in general.	这一比例要比总体自杀率高十倍。


Does this reveal, Duwe asks, just how mentally plagued these perpetrators are?	杜威问，这是否揭示出这些罪犯经历着巨大的精神折磨？


Perhaps they believe they can no longer bear the agony of life; once they have “settled the score” for the perceived slights that have produced it, there is no reason left to live.	也许他们认为他们已经不堪忍受生活的痛苦； 一旦他们“清算了”他们认为造成这一痛苦的侮辱，他们也没有继续存活在世上的理由。


Mullen argues that the script for this particular type of suicide has become entrenched in modern culture, and continues to attract willing lead actors.	穆伦认为，这种特殊自杀的脚本在现代文化中早已根深蒂固，并且在继续吸引着甘之如饴的领衔主演。


If we are unable to use the knowledge we have gleaned from past experience to prevent them from taking the stage, they will continue to take aim at audiences.	如果我们无法用我们从过去的经验学到的知识来防止他们登上舞台，他们将继续把观众当作目标。


Free Trade Without the US	没有美国的自由贸易


SANTIAGO – How should Latin America respond to US President Donald Trump’s America-first approach to the global economy?	圣地亚哥—拉丁美洲如何应对美国总统特朗普的美国第一的全球经济方针？


Here’s one possible answer: build a free-trade area of the Americas without the United States.	这里有一个可能的答案：撇开美国搞一个美洲自由贸易区。


Of course, the idea is far from new.	当然，这个想法并不新鲜。


The founding fathers of Latin America’s republics talked about it two centuries ago. But it never came to pass.	拉丁美洲各国的各位开国元勋两个世纪前就提出过这个想法，但从未兑现。


In the 1960s, there was much discussion about Latin American integration.	20世纪60年代，拉丁美洲一体化的讨论甚烈。


Summit meetings were held and agreements signed.	但并没有自由贸易跟进。


But little progress on free trade followed. For most countries in the region, Europe or the US remained larger trading partners than their immediate neighbors.	对该地区的大部分国家来说，欧洲或美国仍然是比近邻更重要的贸易伙伴。


In the early 1990s, then-US President George H.W. Bush grandly proposed a free-trade area from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.	20世纪90年代，时任美国总统老布什提出建立一个从阿拉斯加直通火地岛的自由贸易区。


The US subsequently signed agreements with Canada, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Central America, but the ambitious and overarching north-south agreement did not materialize.	随后，美国与加拿大、墨西哥、智利、哥伦比亚、秘鲁和中美洲签订了贸易协定，但雄心勃勃、亘穿南北美洲的贸易协定最终未能实现。


The good news is that most of the factors blocking regional free trade back then have disappeared.	好消息是当时阻碍自由贸易的大部分因素已经不复存在。


So now is the right time to pick up on Simón Bolívar’s two-century-old idea.	因此，如今重新拾起两个世纪前玻利瓦尔的思想正逢其时。


One reason why a region-wide trade deal foundered was that proud Brazil was unwilling to attend a party whose main host was the US.	地区级贸易协议无法建立的一个原因是骄傲的巴西不愿意加入由美国主导的派对。


But if Trump sticks to his protectionist promises, we will no longer have to worry about US-Brazil rivalry within the same trade agreement.	但如果特朗普坚守其保护主义承诺，我们就不再需要担心美国和巴西在同一个贸易协定中出现对立。


In the past, US farm subsidies were also deal-breakers for large agricultural exporters like Argentina and, again, Brazil.	在过去，美国农业补贴也是阿根廷和（又是）巴西等农业大出口国不愿加入贸易协议的原因。


With the US out of the picture, this also becomes a non-issue.	随着美国的出局，这一点也不再是问题。


As the 1990s progressed, left-wing populist governments came to power in a number of Latin American countries.	随着20世纪90年代的深入，左翼民粹主义政府开始在许多拉丁美洲国家掌权。


For these governments – in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and, of course, Venezuela – free trade was a dirty “neoliberal” phrase.	对这些政府来说——包括阿根廷、玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔、尼加拉瓜，当然还有委内瑞拉——自由贸易是肮脏的“新自由主义”词汇。


For their leaders, too, an agreement with the US was out of the question.	同样，对这些国家的领导人来说，与美国签订协议想都不要想。


Today, that brand of populism is (knock on wood) in retreat across Latin America.	如今，民粹主义（谢天谢地）正在拉丁美洲退潮。 在阿根廷，庇隆主义者输掉了总统大选；


In Argentina, the Peronists have lost the presidency; in Brazil, President Dilma Rousseff got herself impeached; and in Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro’s increasingly dictatorial regime is teetering on the edge of the abyss.	在巴西，总统罗塞夫被弹劾； 在委内瑞拉，总统马杜罗的日益独裁的政权已经岌岌可危。


Ecuador also may soon end its flirtation with populism: Rafael Correa’s handpicked successor did less well than expected in the recent first round of the country’s presidential election.	厄瓜多尔也可能很快就会结束民粹主义玩火的历史：科雷拉内定的继任者在最近举行的第一轮总统竞选中表现不如预期。


So, with the three main stumbling blocks gone, what is preventing a free-trade agreement of the Americas from being signed?	因此，随着三大主要障碍不复存在，是什么在阻止美洲诸国签订自由贸易协定？


Nothing much, except for policy inertia and lack of clear leadership.	无非是政策惯性和缺乏明确的领导者。


But there is no shortage of regional leaders who could carry the torch of trade integration from the Rio Grande to the Cabo de Hornos.	但美洲并不缺乏能够领导从格兰德河到合恩角的贸易大融合的旗手。


Aside from their wariness of the US, past Brazilian presidents also feared their domestic business establishment, which never met a tariff or a non-tariff barrier it did not like.	除了忌惮美国，过去的诸任巴西总统还担心国内的商业利益集团，后者从来不需要面对它们不喜欢的关税或非关税壁垒。


That protectionist sentiment, always strongest in the industrial heartland of São Paulo, is still there.	这一保护主义情绪在圣保罗工业核心区向来最强，如今仍然存在。


But with Brazil just beginning to emerge from its deepest recession in decades, Brazilian businesses are eagerly seeking new customers.	但巴西刚刚开始从近几十年来最严重的衰退中复苏，巴西企业急切地渴望新客户。


And with China slowing, Europe mired in its own crisis, and the US walling itself in, the region’s growing markets have fresh appeal.	而随着中国减速、欧洲陷入自身危机，以及美国闭关锁国，美洲地区不断增长的市场也有了新的吸引力。


Something similar has happened to Mexico.	墨西哥也发生了类似的情况。


Its leaders always talked the talk of regional free trade, but no Sherlock Holmes was needed to discover that their real interest lay in the US market, where over 80% of Mexican exports go.	墨西哥领导人一直在谈论地区自由贸易谈判的问题，但很容易就能发现，他们的真正兴趣在美国市场，其80%的出口都流向美国。


Now that Trump has called Mexican immigrants rapists and has called for a wall on the border (along with a tariff on Mexican exports to pay for it), trade intimacy with the US is losing – how can one put it politely? – some of its appeal.	如今，特朗普将墨西哥移民称为强奸犯，还要在边境筑墙（并向墨西哥出口品征收关税来作为筑墙费用），墨西哥与美国的密切贸易关系正在失去吸引力——闹成这样，谁还能礼貌做生意呢？


So it should come as no surprise that Mexican politicians and businesspeople are looking south with newfound enthusiasm.	因此，墨西哥政客和商人转而青睐南方一点都不足为奇。


Argentina also has reasons to back regional free trade.	阿根廷也有理由支持地区自由贸易。


President Mauricio Macri’s year-old administration is naturally inclined toward economic liberalism, and Argentina is caught today in the straitjacket of the external tariff of the Mercosur regional trade agreement with Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.	履新已经一年的总统马克里政府天然倾向于经济自由化，并且如今阿根廷要受到与巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭的南方共同市场地区贸易协定的外部关税的束缚。


The least traumatic way to achieve greater openness without having to blow up the existing agreement is to have Mercosur join a larger free-trade area.	实现更大的开放而不需要废除现有协定的影响最小的办法便是让南方共同市场加入更大的自由贸易区。


That transition would suit Argentina well.	这一转型十分适合阿根廷。


With Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina pushing in the same direction, the issue of leadership would be solved automatically.	巴西、墨西哥和阿根廷心往一处使，领导者的问题便迎刃而解。


Chile, which for political reasons has always wanted to bring together the more liberal economies of the Pacific with the more protectionist regimes of the Atlantic, would have plenty of reasons to help move the process forward.	智利出于政治原因一直想将较为自由化的太平洋经济体与较为保护主义的大西洋经济体撮合在一起，它有足够的理由助推这一过程。


And Canada, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (everybody’s favorite English-speaking leader nowadays), would be most welcome to join.	而总理特鲁多（如今他是所有人都喜欢的英语国家领导人）治下的阿根廷将是最受欢迎的加入者。


Yes, Venezuela’s Maduro would object and denounce a neoliberal conspiracy against him.	当然，委内瑞拉的马杜罗将会拒绝并谴责这一针对他的新自由主义阴谋。


But, given his rock-bottom standing in the region, most countries would regard this as an additional incentive to join the new bloc.	但是，他在该地区已经众叛亲离，大部分国家将把这一立场视为加入新自由贸易区的又一个刺激因素。


Nicaragua, Bolivia, and perhaps Ecuador might drag their feet.	尼加拉瓜、玻利维亚，也许还有厄瓜多尔，可能会犹豫不决。


But they lack the political and economic heft to stop a deal.	但它们在政治和经济上都不足以阻止该协议。


A hemispheric free-trade agreement would not have to start from scratch.	西半球自由贸易协定不需要从零开始。


The Pacific Alliance, which already binds together Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Peru, is a useful starting point.	拉丁美洲太平洋联盟已经包括了墨西哥、哥伦比亚和秘鲁，可以作为很好的起点。


That agreement focuses on trade in goods and services, trade facilitation, rules of origin, and dispute resolution.	该协定聚焦于商品和服务贸易、贸易便利、原产地规则和纠纷解决机制。


In any new deal, non-tariff barriers and government procurement, two sets of instruments often used for hidden and not-so-hidden protectionism in Latin America, ought to follow common standards.	在新协议中，非关税壁垒和政府采购这两个拉丁美洲常用的隐蔽和半公开保护主义工具应该遵守共同标准。


So should labor and environmental practices.	劳动力和环境政策亦然。


The always-prickly issues of investment and intellectual property should be a part of any new deal; but, with the US absent, some of the more controversial rules that North American businesses have lobbied for could now be excluded.	向来敏感的投资和知识产权问题应该成为新协议的一部分； 但既然美国不参与其中，北美企业游说要求的一些更有争议的规则可以排除在外。


So, yes, the era of free trade across much of the Americas finally may have arrived.	因此，囊括美洲大部的自由贸易终于要实现了。


And we have Trump’s nationalist and protectionist bullying to thank for it.	而我们要感谢的是特朗普的民族主义和保护主义威胁。


Latin America’s Rising Right	拉丁美洲右翼的崛起


LAGUNA BEACH – From changes in government in Argentina and Brazil to mid-course policy corrections in Chile, Latin American politics appears to be undergoing a rightward shift.	拉古娜海滩—从阿根廷到巴西的政府更迭到智利的政策半途调整，拉丁美洲政治似乎正在向右转。


But rather than being “pulled” by the attractiveness of the economic policies that the right is advocating, this complex phenomenon is predominantly a reflection of the “push” implied by anemic growth and the disappointing provision of public goods, especially social services.	但这一复现象行并非右派所鼓吹的经济政策的吸引力所“拉动”，而主要是疲软的增长和令人失望的公共品供给（特别是社会服务）所带来的“推力”的表现。


Indeed, we can think of the shift as a Latin American variant of the West’s blossoming romance with anti-establishment movements.	事实上，我们可以将这一转变视为西方反建制运动如火如荼的拉丁美洲版。


And that means that the region’s governments must be seen to deliver to their citizens.	而这意味着该地区的政府必须表现得出公民有所得。