Empathy, not ethnocentrism, should be the order of the day now that the guns are falling silent and we have rediscovered the limits of military force.	在炮火逐渐平息、武力界限再度浮现的时刻，需要设身处地地为对方考虑，而不是盲目愚蠢的自我中心。


But if we have learned anything at all from the tragic assassinations of the region’s greatest peacemakers, Anwar Sadat and Yitzhak Rabin, it is that the guns do not remain silent for long.	但如果中东地区最伟大的和平使者安瓦尔·萨达特和伊扎克·拉宾被刺的悲剧曾经留给过我们什么教训，那就是战火熄灭的时间不会太长。


During any lull, a fanatic from either side could jump to center stage and, through an act of utter madness, kick up the settling dust and dash the hopes of the many on both sides who still long for a lasting peace.	在短暂的宁静时刻，来自任何一方的狂热分子随时有可能跳到前台，用绝对的疯狂行为重新点燃战争的怒火，毁灭双方爱好和平的人们对永久和平的期望。


After the Millennium Development Goals	千年发展目标之后


CAMBRIDGE – In 2000, 189 countries collectively adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration, which evolved into a set of concrete targets called the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).	美国剑桥—2000年，189个国家一致接受了联合国千年宣言，并将其纳入了被称为千年发展目标（MDG）的一系列具体计划中。


These ambitious targets – ranging from halving extreme poverty and reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters to achieving universal primary schooling and halting (and beginning to reverse) the spread of HIV/AIDS – are supposed to be met by the end of 2015.	这些雄心勃勃的计划——从将贫困降低一半和让产妇死亡率减少四分之三到让所有孩子都接受小学教育和让艾滋病（毒）停止传播（甚至减少）——应该在2015年底之前完成。


As the deadline approaches, development experts are debating a new question: What comes next?	随着截止期的临近，发展专家们开始讨论新的问题：接下去怎么办？


It is virtually certain that many of the MDGs will not have been met by the end of 2015, but there have been striking successes in some areas.	几乎可以肯定的是，很多MDG在2015年底之前是实现不了的，但在不少领域还是取得了极大的成功。


For example, the goal of halving extreme poverty (measured by the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day) will likely be achieved ahead of time, largely thanks to China’s phenomenal growth.	比如，将极端贫困减少一半（以每天生活费不到1. 25美元的人群数量为衡量标准）的目标就有可能提前完成，其中中国的显著增长功不可没。


At the same time, there is little evidence to suggest that those successes were the result of the MDGs themselves.	与此同时，没有证据显示这些成功是MDG本身的结果。


China implemented the policies that engineered history’s greatest poverty eradication program prior to, and independently from, the Millennium Declaration and the MDGs.	中国的史上最伟大减贫计划因国内政策而起，发生于千年宣言和MDG之前，也独立于后两者。


Clearly, however, the MDGs were a public-relations triumph, which is not to belittle their contribution.	不过，毫无疑问，MDG称得上公关胜利，这么说并不是要贬低它们的作用。


Like all worthwhile PR efforts, the MDGs served to raise awareness, galvanize attention, and mobilize action – all for a good cause.	与所有有价值的公关活动一样，MDG有助于提高认识、吸引注意力和动员行动，均是积极影响。


They amplified the global conversation about development and defined its terms.	它们扩大了关于发展问题的全球对话，并决定了对话的主题。


And there is evidence that they got advanced countries to pay more attention to poor nations.	有证据表明，它们还使发达国家更加关注穷国。


Indeed, the MDGs possibly had their clearest impact on aid flows from rich to poor countries.	事实上，MDG最显而易见的影响可能就在于富国向穷国的援助流。


A study by Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner for the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC, suggests that the MDGs not only boosted aid flows, but also redirected them toward smaller, poorer countries, and toward targeted areas like education and public health.	华盛顿全球发展中心的查尔斯·肯尼（Charles Kenny）和安迪·萨姆纳（Andy Sumner）的研究表明，MDG不但刺激了援助流，还将援助流定向至更小、更穷的国家以及教育和公共卫生等更为具体的领域。


However, aid was not directly linked to performance and results, and it is much more difficult to know whether it had the desired impact overall.	不过，援助与表现和效果并不直接相关，了解援助是否达到了理想效果要困难得多。


The MDGs encompass eight goals, 21 targets, and 60 indicators.	MDG包括八个大目标（goal），21个小目标（target）和60项指标。


Much criticism has focused on the use of these numerical targets and indicators, which, skeptics argue, are misspecified, mismeasured, and divert attention from equally important areas.	许多批评的矛头指向这些数量化的小目标和指标。 质疑者认为，它们的方向和衡量手段都是错误的，导致了注意力从其他同等重要领域移开。


But these complaints miss the point.	但这些指摘并没有抓住重点。


Any effort that is concrete and implementable needs to monitor the results, and setting clear numerical targets is the best way to do so.	任何具体且可实施的目标都需要检测结果，而设置清晰的数量目标是检测结果的最佳方法。


Still, a central paradox plagues the MDGs.	但仍有一个核心悖论困扰着MDG。


The Millennium Declaration was meant to be a compact between the world’s rich and poor countries.	千年宣言不啻发达国家和贫穷国家之间的契约。


Poor countries promised to refocus their development efforts while rich countries pledged to support them with finance, technology, and access to their markets.	贫穷国家承诺重新调整发展努力，而发达国家承诺向它们提供金融、技术和市场渠道支持。


But, oddly, of the eight goals, only the last one deals with “global partnership,” or what rich countries can and should do.	但是，奇怪的是，在八个大目标中，只有最后一个是关于“全球合作”，即发达国家可以和应该怎么做的。


Even here, the MDGs contain no numerical target for financial aid or any other aspect of rich countries’ assistance, in contrast to the highly specific poverty-related targets set for developing countries.	即使在这里，MDG仍没有为金融援助或其他发达国家援助设定数量化目标，这与针对发展中国家的极其具体的贫困相关目标形成了鲜明对比。


It is perhaps telling that the “progress charts” prepared by the United Nations Development Program, the agency charged with reporting on progress toward achieving the MDGs, track only Internet usage under that goal.	具有说明力的是，联合国发展计划署——负责报告MDG进展情况的机构——所准备的“进展图”所追踪的唯一一个该大目标相关数字是互联网的使用情况。


Why we need a global effort to convince developing countries to do what is good for them is not clear.	为什么我们需要全球措施来使发展中国家相信怎样做才是最好的？


Poverty reduction and human development should be the first order of business for governments in these countries, with or without the MDGs.	这个问题还没有明确答案。 减贫和人类发展应该是这些国家政府的首要职责，不管有没有MDG都是如此。


It is true, of course, that these governments often pursue different goals, for political, military, and other reasons.	当然，实事求是地说，出于政治、军事和其他原因，这些国家的政府通常会追求不同的大目标。


But it is wishful thinking to believe that they can be persuaded to act otherwise by international declarations that lack enforcement mechanisms.	但认为可以通过缺少强制机制的国际宣言说服它们改变做法纯属一厢情愿。


If we have learned one thing in the development business, it is that real reform cannot be bought with donors’ money, let alone with vague promises of money.	如果说发展事务对我们有什么教育意义的话，那就是真正的改革不可能是赞助者的金钱带来的，更不用说只是虚无的承诺资金支持了。


Equally problematic, the MDGs implicitly assume that we know how to achieve development targets, and that only resources and political will are missing.	同样有问题的是，MDG隐含地假设我们知道如何达到发展小目标，所缺乏的只是资源和政治意愿。


But it is doubtful that even well-intentioned policymakers have a good handle on, say, how to raise secondary-school completion rates sustainably or reduce maternal mortality.	但即使是有心的决策者，他是否能处理好（比如）持续提高中学完学率和降低产妇死亡率等问题仍然值得怀疑。


Many development economists would argue that significant improvements in governance and political institutions are required before such goals can be achieved.	许多发展经济学家会说，在大目标可以实现之前，必须发生治理和政治制度的重大进步。


The most that rich countries can do is to provide an enabling environment for the benefit of developing countries that are willing and able to take advantage of it.	发达国家最能给出的援助是提供促进性的环境，让愿意且有能力利用该环境的发展中国家收益。


These considerations suggest an obvious direction for the next iteration of the MDGs.	这些考虑清晰地给出了下一代MDG的方向。


First, a new global compact should focus more directly on rich countries’ responsibilities.	首先，新的全球契约应该更直接地专注于发达国家的责任。


Second, it should emphasize policies beyond aid and trade that have an equal, if not greater, impact on poor countries’ development prospects.	第二，它应该强调援助和贸易之外的、对贫穷国家的发展前景具有同样（如果不是更大）推动的政策。


A short list of such policies would include: carbon taxes and other measures to ameliorate climate change; more work visas to allow larger temporary migration flows from poor countries; strict controls on arms sales to developing nations; reduced support for repressive regimes; and improved sharing of financial information to reduce money laundering and tax avoidance.	这些政策应该包括：碳税和其他改善气候变化的措施、增加贫穷国家临时性人口迁徙的工作签证、严格控制对发展中国家的军售、减少对压迫性政权的支持，以及改善金融信息的共享状况以打击洗钱和逃税。


Notice that most of these measures are actually aimed at reducing damage – for example, climate change, military conflict, and financial crime – that otherwise results from rich countries’ conduct.	注意，这些措施的大部分实际上都是为了减少发达国家援助行为的伤害——比如气候变化、军事冲突和金融犯罪。


“Do no harm” is as good a principle here as it is in medicine.	“不产生伤害”这一医学格言在这里同样是一条很好的原则。


This kind of reorientation will not be easy.	制定这样的新目标绝非易事。


Advanced countries are certain to resist any new commitments.	发达国家必然会抵制新承诺。


But most of these measures do not cost money, and, as the MDGs have shown, setting targets can be used to mobilize action from rich-country governments.	但这些措施大多并不需要金钱，MDG也表明，设定小目标可以用于动员发达国家政府的行动。


If the international community is going to invest in a bold new public-relations initiative, it might as well focus on areas where the potential payoffs are the greatest.	如果国际社会欲投资雄心勃勃的新公关计划，那么把目光集中在潜在收益比最高的领域是不错的选择。


After the Promised Land	追逐理想之地


LONDON – At the height of the Arab uprisings last spring, many Europeans were gripped by nightmare visions of a tsunami of migrants crashing against the continent’s shores.	伦敦——去年春天，在阿拉伯起义愈演愈烈之际，许多欧洲人被大批移民将涌入欧洲的可怕远景困扰。


The wave never hit, but its specter fed a tenacious anti-immigrant populism that has concealed an important new trend: migration to Europe – and to the United States – has largely stalled.	事实并非如此，但是这种恐惧感催生了强烈的反移民民粹主义，这掩盖了一种重要的新趋势：移民欧洲和美国基本上停滞了。


In many countries, more immigrants are leaving than are arriving, owing mainly to the economic crisis that has drained jobs in the West.	对于许多国家而言，移民国外的人要比入境的移民要多，这主要是因为经济危机导致西方的就业岗位减少。


That reversal is one of the great under-reported stories of 2011 (and of the preceding two years), and the numbers are startling.	这种倒退的情况是2011年（以及2011年之前的两年）报道严重不足的地方之一，各项数据令人吃惊。


Consider Spain, which is on track to lose more than a half-million residents by 2020.	拿西班牙来说，到2020年，其居民将减少50多万。


By contrast, between 2002 and 2008, Spain’s population grew by 700,000 a year, driven largely by immigration.	相比之下，2002年至2008年期间，西班牙的人口每年增长70万，这主要得益于移民。


The trends are similar elsewhere in Europe.	欧洲其他国家的趋势也大同小异。


While this fact alone will not quiet opponents of immigration, it does give countries more breathing room to repair and strengthen badly broken systems for receiving and integrating newcomers.	尽管这一事实无法让移民的反对者守住嘴巴，但是它让各国有了更多的余地，修复和加固严重受损的制度，以便接受新移民并让他们融入本国。


Although rapidly aging Western countries are unable to attract the immigrants they need, they allow millions who are already there to suffer discrimination and abuse.	尽管快速老龄化的西方国家无法吸引其所需的移民，但是它们还让数百万已经移居于此的移民遭受歧视和虐待。


Detentions and deportations take place under sometimes terrible conditions.	有时在极其恶劣的环境下扣押和驱逐出境。


Meanwhile, the international community collectively fails to protect vast populations of vulnerable migrants, such as the millions stranded by the recent conflicts in North Africa.	与此同时，国际社会都没有保护大量易受伤害的移民群体，比如因最近北非冲突陷入困境的数百万人。


Undoubtedly, rising anti-immigrant populism must be confronted.	毋庸置疑，日益高涨的反移民民粹主义情绪必须加以遏制。


While polling suggests that attitudes are influenced more by ethnicity than religion, both help to define identities and mindsets.	但是民调显示，民众的态度较之宗教，更多的是受到种族的影响，种族和宗教都有助于确定身份和思维模式。


Political parties in France, Switzerland, and the Netherlands (to name a few) have run successful campaigns that scapegoat immigrants.	法国、瑞士和荷兰等国的政党都成功地发起了嫁祸移民的运动。


Moreover, governments from Alabama to Hungary are passing laws that undermine what should be migrants’ rights.	此外，从亚拉巴马到匈牙利，各地政府正在通过法律，削弱移民应有的权利。


Italy recently adopted harsh “emergency” decrees that target migrants by making undocumented entry and residence a criminal offense.	最近，意大利采取了针对移民的严厉的“紧急”法案，将非法入境和居住视为犯罪。


Anti-immigrant rhetoric from the political extremes has fed into mainstream political discourse.	政治极端派反移民的言论已经进入政治讨论的主流。


European leaders trip over themselves to declare, one more forcefully than the next, that multiculturalism is dead.	欧洲领导人搬起石头砸自己的脚并且一浪高过一浪地宣布，多元文化主义已经灭亡。


Dutch politician Geert Wilders, whose Freedom Party is informally part of the governing coalition, did them one better by being charged with incitement to anti-Muslim hatred.	荷兰政客格特•怀尔德是自由党人，自由党不是正式执政联盟的一部分，他受到了激起反穆斯林敌意的指控，比其他人做的要好。


In the US, alligator-filled moats and electrified border fences have featured in the current presidential campaign.	在美国边境，壕沟中都是短吻鳄，还有带电的围栏，这显示出了当前总统竞选的特色。


Such attacks on immigration might offer some instant political gratification, but their net result is to cleave societies whose cohesion is already seriously challenged by the economic crisis.	这样对移民进行攻击或许能够带来一些即时的政治利益，但是最终结果必定会使社会分裂，而社会的凝聚力已经受到了经济危机严重影响。


Growing discrimination in employment, housing, and education affects not just immigrants and their children; it harms our societies as a whole.	在就业、住房和教育方面日益严重的歧视问题不仅会影响移民及其后代，也不利于我们整个社会。


With the lull in net immigration, we now have a window of opportunity to address these shortcomings.	由于净移民停滞，现在我们拥有了克服这些不足的机会之窗。


Debunking the myths about migration – that most immigrants enter unlawfully, for example, or that immigration displaces existing workers – would be a good place to start.	揭露移民方面的错误——比如，大多数移民非法入境或移民导致现有工人失业——是一个良好的开端。


It would also be useful to explain that immigration is necessary for prosperity and growth in almost all OECD countries.	移民几乎对所有经合组织成员国的繁荣和经济增长都必不可少，这种解释也是非常有用的。


If aging societies in the West and elsewhere (like Japan) fail to get immigration right, they will be woefully unprepared when they confront the real tidal wave: the retirement of baby boomers in the coming two decades.	如果西方以及其他地方（比如日本）的老龄化社会没有正确对待移民，当真正的浪潮来临时，它们将不知所措：婴儿潮一代在今后20年内退休。


The gaps in these countries’ labor markets – from software specialists to physicians to home health aides – will be immense.	这些国家的劳动力市场——从软件专家、医生到家庭医疗助理等——将出现巨大的缺口。


The European Union’s labor force will decline by almost 70 million workers in the next 40 years; in the absence of significant net immigration (combined with a much higher retirement age), European economies and social safety nets will shrivel.	欧盟的劳动力将在今后40年减少近7000万名工人，如果没有大量的净移民，不大幅提高退休年龄，欧洲经济体和社会保障体系将力不从心。


The priorities are clear.	优先任务非常清楚。


We need to understand better how our economies will evolve in the coming decades, and to redesign our educational systems to produce workers with usable skills.	我们需要更好地了解自己的经济体在今后数十年将如何演化，需要重新设计我们的教育体制，从而培养出掌握有用技能的工人。


And, where it is clear that immigrants will be needed, we must be able to identify, welcome, integrate, and protect them.	此外，在明确需要移民的地方，我们必须能够认可、欢迎并保护他们，让他们融入到我们当中来。


Meanwhile, our most fundamental institutions – schools, police, and the courts – must be re-engineered to reflect and respond to the diversity of our communities, which is now a fact of life.	与此同时，我们最基本的机构——学校、警察局和法院——必须重新调整以反映和应对我们社区的多样性，这是如今的真实生活。


Countries must learn to work together to achieve these goals, few of which can be reached by going it alone.	各国必须学会互相合作实现这些目标，单打独斗能实现的目标寥寥无几。


If our toolbox were empty, our inaction might be understandable.	如果我们的工具箱空空如也，那么我们无所作为或��可以理解。


But examples of smart migration practices abound.	但是采取明智移民举措的例子比比皆是。


Canada and the Philippines, for instance, have a well-functioning accord that protects the rights of temporary workers.	譬如，加拿大和菲律宾拥有保护临时工权利的协议，效果相当好。


Sweden has developed legislation that minimizes bureaucracy for companies that need foreign workers.	瑞典已经通过立法，为需要外国工人的公司尽量简化了行政手续。


And important advances have been made in ensuring that immigrant children receive the education that they need to become full members of society.	在确保移民的孩子接受成为正式公民所需的教育方面也取得了重要进展。


Progress is being made on the global level as well, despite the economic crisis and populist headwinds.	尽管受到经济危机和民粹主义的影响，全球而言还是取得了进展。


In June, the International Labor Organization’s member states overwhelmingly approved the Domestic Workers Convention, which will significantly increase protections for a vulnerable group of workers – the majority of whom are migrants.	6月份，国际劳工组织成员国以压倒性优势通过了《国内工人公约》，这将大大增加对易受伤害的劳动群体——其中大多数是移民——的保护。


Meanwhile, the Global Forum on Migration and Development, established in 2007, has quickly become an important means of fostering knowledge and partnerships.	与此同时，成立于2007年的移民与发展全球论坛迅速成为了增加知识和增进伙伴关系的重要途径。


The reason for growing international cooperation is simple: countries everywhere are affected by migration, and, increasingly, they are experiencing immigration and emigration simultaneously.	国际合作日益增多的原因很简单：世界各国都受到移民的影响，移民入境和本国居民移居海外在同时进行着。


Indeed, roughly one-third of migrants nowadays move between developed countries; one-third move between developing countries; and only one-third move from the developing to the developed world.	实际上，目前约三分之一的移民在发达国家之间流动； 三分之一的移民在发展中国家之间流动；


Highly skilled workers, such as bankers and engineers, are flocking to China.	只有三分之一的移民在发展中国家和发达国家之间流动。


Mexico, known primarily as a country of emigration, is home to millions of migrants from Central America.	有高技能的工人，比如银行家和工程师，蜂拥去了中国。 墨西哥以主要的移民出口国出名，现在有来自中美洲的数百万移民在此安家。


Millions of people in Southeast Asia venture to the Middle East to work, but millions more cross borders within the region.	有数百万东南亚人冒险到中东工作，但是还有数百万人跨境到该地区的其他国家。


The list goes on.	这样的例子不胜枚举。


When it comes to migration, we are all in the same boat – and that boat is leaking.	关于移民，我们都坐在同一条船上，而这条船是漏水的。


Starting in 2012, countries should redouble their efforts to fix it.	从2012年开始，各国必须加倍努力解决这个问题。


A Future without Precedent	前所未有的未来


JERUSALEM – In my nearly nine decades of life, I cannot recall a time in which the past was so irrelevant to policymaking.	耶路撒冷—以我将近90岁的年纪，想不起有哪个时候的决策与过去如此毫无关联。


All of today’s significant developments went unpredicted by anyone.	今天的一切重大发展都是所有人前所未见的。


Experts studied the past, but, constrained by old paradigms, they could not discern the future.	专家们研究过去，但他们被旧范式限制住了头脑，无法清醒地看到未来。


Today’s dynamic complexity, in which a science-based, fast-changing global economy makes so many more phenomena interdependent, prevents us from foreseeing the future through linear extrapolations of the past.	今天，世界充满了动态的复杂性，基于科学、快速变迁的全球经济使得如此之多的现象互相交错，以至于我们无法通过根据过去的线性外推来预测未来。


The only certainty is that the future will be defined by scientific progress and innovation, which cannot be known ahead of time.	唯一确定的是，未来将由科学进步和创新决定，但科学进步和创新是无法预知的。


As a result, the traditional power of states and leaders is declining; in today’s global economy, innovators, not politicians, wield the most influence.	因此，传统的国家和领袖权力在削弱； 在当今全球经济中，创新者，而不是政客，才拥有最大的影响力。


The globalized economy affects every state, yet no single state can determine the outcomes, because science and technology are borderless.	全球化经济影响着所有国家，但没有哪个国家能够单枪匹马决定结果，因为科学技术是无国界的。


Global companies wish to do business worldwide, eroding not just sovereignty, but also racism and prejudice, as well as significantly weakening nationalism.	全球公司希望在全世界范围开展业务，这不但削弱了主权，也削弱了种族主义和偏见，并极大地抑制了民族主义。


This transformation has placed the world in the hands of a younger generation, more technologically savvy than their parents and connected to one another through social networks that are not confined by territory, language, or government.	这一转型把世界交给了年青一代，他们比老一辈更精于技术，通过打破领土、语言和政府界限的社交网络彼此相连。


The young leaders who created Facebook and Google have had a greater global impact than many statesmen and generals.	创立Facebook和谷歌的青年领袖要比许多政治家和将军拥有更大的全球影响力。


These young people are also the leaders of erupting political protest movements.	这些青年人也是风起云涌的政治示威运动的领导人。


The “Arab Spring,” the tent demonstrations in Israel, Occupy Wall Street, and the protests in Russia reveal not a clash of civilizations, but a battle of generations.	“阿拉伯之春”、以色列的露营示威、“占领华尔街”以及俄罗斯大游行所揭示的并不是文明的冲突，而是代际战争。


The young generation understands that the way states and economies are currently run is unfit for the new era.	年青一代明白，国家和经济的现有运行模式已经落后于新时代了。


Yet there are political “hitchhikers” who want to exploit the recent awakening, not by promoting an agenda of freedom, but by imposing a different type of coercion.	但也有意在利用当下觉醒潮的“政治浪人”，他们不推行自由日程表，反而实行另一种形式的高压。


In the Arab world, it is mainly extreme Islamists who are hijacking the young generation’s wave, stealing their revolution.	在阿拉伯世界，极端伊斯兰主义者正在绑架年青一代的运动，窃取革命果实。


Israel has reacted positively to the will of the young generation, but it cannot and should not intervene in events in the Arab world.	以色列积极响应年青一代的志愿，但不能也不应该干预阿拉伯世界的事务。


Our hearts are with the rebelling youngsters and their legitimate yearning for freedom and basic rights to express themselves, choose their leaders, and earn their own living.	我们的心与叛逆青年们在一起，支持他们对自由和表现自己、选择自己的领导人、自力更生过自己的生活的权利的诉求。


Israelis wait for the day when our country will no longer be the region’s only democracy, because being an island of prosperity in a sea of poverty is unnatural.	以色列人期待着我们的祖国不再是该地区唯一民主国家的那一天，因为成为贫困汪洋中的繁荣孤岛是极不自然的。


Yet there is a real concern that the extremists, who are politically well organized, are seeking to gain control by the ballot over less-organized liberals, thus preventing peace and stability.	但是，我们也有现实顾虑：有着良好政治组织的极端主义者正在寻求通过投票打败组织松散的自由派赢得控制权，从而阻止和平与稳定。


Fundamentalist radicals cannot provide real solutions to the region’s basic problems.	原教旨主义激进派不可能为该地区的基本问题提供现实解决方案。


The social changes now underway threaten their way of life, which includes discrimination against women and a ban on modern education.	当今社会的变化正在威胁他们的生活——歧视妇女、禁止现代教育。


But only profound reforms of traditional authority can pave the way towards freedom and growth.	但唯有对传统权威的深远改革才能铺平通向自由和增长之路。


Israel can serve as an example to others striving to reach economic prosperity and social freedom, because its success is due to the fact that the country had absolutely nothing at the start.	对于正在追求经济繁荣和社会自由者，以色列可以作为一个样板，因为以色列的成功可以说完全是从一无所有起家的。


We returned to our homeland, rich with history, but devoid of natural resources.	我们回到了我们的故乡，这里有着丰富的历史，但自然资源贫乏。


Israel was left with only one resource: its human capital.	以色列只有一种资源：人力资本。


So we invested in education and science, and today we have the world’s highest percentage of scientists and patents per capita.	因此我们投资于教育和科学，而如今，我们拥有全世界最高比例的科学家和人均专利数量。


Roughly 95% of our agriculture is hi-tech.	我们的农业95%是高科技农业。


We use less water and yield more crops per acre than any other country in the world.	我们用更少的水种出比世界上其他国家更多的粮食亩产。


What Israel can do, others can do as well.	以色列能够做到的，其他国家也能做到。


We will gladly offer a helping hand to whoever is willing to reach for it.	只要愿意向这方面努力，我们十分乐意施以援手。


Together, in peace with our neighbors, we can create a region of hope, development, and success.	与邻邦保持和平，我们就可以开创一个希望、发展和成功的地区。


In particular, we must do everything in our power to end the conflict with the Palestinians.	尤其重要的是，我们必须尽一切力量终结与巴勒斯坦的冲突。


Israel was not born, and it is not Israel’s destiny, to govern another people.	以色列不是生来就主宰其他民族的，这也决不是以色列的命运。


We are sincerely interested in the establishment of a Palestinian state living peacefully side-by-side with Israel, the democratic state of the Jewish people.	我们真心实意地乐意看到能与犹太人民主国家以色列手拉手和平相处的巴勒斯坦国的建立。


For us, peace is both a moral imperative and a national-security strategy, because resolving the conflict would help to stabilize the region by neutralizing the extremists who seek to manipulate today’s popular movements to advance their radical agenda.	对我们来说，和平既是道德目标，也是国家安全战略，因为解决冲突将有助于通过中和试图操纵当下群众运动从而实现其激进目标的极端分子实现地区稳定。


The international community can support these efforts by providing incentives to countries that choose freedom and progress.	国际社会可以通过向选择自由和进步的国家提供激励来支持我们的努力。


At the same time, determined and decisive policies must be taken against extremists.	与此同时，必须对极端分子采取坚决果断的政策。


In particular, Iran is a fount of moral corruption that spearheads extremism and halts reform, crushing the legitimate protest of its own citizens and acting against the brave Syrians now fighting for their freedom.	特别是伊朗，这个国家是道德腐败的源头，极端主义的先锋队，改革的绊脚石； 它镇压本国公民的合法示威，与正在为自由而斗争的勇敢的叙利亚人民作对。


Iran also uses proxies to instigate terror against moderate forces in the Palestinian Authority, Lebanon, and Iraq.	伊朗还通过其代理人教唆人们对巴勒斯坦权力机构、黎巴嫩和伊拉克的温和派大搞恐怖主义。


If Iran is successful in its plan to acquire nuclear weapons, its leaders could shake the Middle East and encourage more extremism and violence.	如果伊朗成功地实现其获得核武器的计划，那么其领导人将能够震慑中东，掀起更多的极端主义和暴力。


Israel will defend itself if Iran continues to call for its destruction.	如果伊朗继续倒行逆施，以色列将坚决捍卫自己。


However, the threat is not to Israel alone; Iran is a danger to the peace and stability of the entire world.	不过，感到威胁的并非只有以色列； 伊朗是全世界和平与稳定的潜藏危机。


The world’s democracies have declared that they will not allow Iran to possess nuclear arms; it is their duty to follow through on that commitment, before doing so becomes impossible.	民主国家已经宣布，不会容忍伊朗拥有核武器； 民主国家应该坚决履行这一承诺，不能等到大势已去才有所动作。


Beyond the short-term challenges ahead, we all have a duty to profoundly change the way we prepare our children to cope with today’s new world.	除了眼前的短期挑战，我们所有人都有责任彻底改变我们为子孙后代准备的应对当今新世界的方法。


In an era where yesterday has become almost irrelevant and we can hardly predict tomorrow, the role of education must allow all children to reach their highest potential.	在一个过去几乎毫无关联、未来几乎无法预测的时代，并需通过教育让所有孩子获得充分的潜能开发。


Today’s educators should inspire our children towards creativity and innovation.	现时代的教育者应该激发孩子的创造力和创新力。


Self-expression is as important as free expression.	自我表现与言论自由一样重要。


I write this in the 88th year of my life, but not because I have learned from experience.	我已88岁之龄写下这篇文字，但我之所以这么说，并非是出于我的经验。


On the contrary, experience is overrated, often constraining the courage needed to face tomorrow and build an unprecedented new world.	相反，经验的作用被高估了，通常会阻挠直面明天、建设前所未有的新世界所需要的勇气。


The future is already here; there is no point in looking back.	未来就在那里，没有必要回头看。


Against Simplification	反对简单化


NEW YORK – It is said that Americans have a genius for simplification.	纽约——都说美国人善于将事情简单化。


Gradually, however, the quest for it has become a global trend, one that continues to conquer new territories, just as blue jeans once did.	但是，追求简单化早已逐渐成为一种全球趋势，简单化之风逾吹愈劲，就像当年的牛仔裤风尚。


The speed of our daily life is visibly increased – and not for the better – by this unstoppable evolution.	在这一不可阻挡的变化的影响下，我们的日常生活节奏在加快，这一点谁都能看出，但生活并没有因此变得更好。


The tyranny of pragmatism seems to mark all of the complex dilemmas of our time.	实用主义大行其道似乎已成为现时代复杂困境的共同特征。


Too many valid choices are ignored or skirted through the routine of short-cuts.	人们总是希望走捷径，这使得许多有效选择被忽略和屏蔽了。


Nowhere is this trend more damaging than in today’s mercantile approach to art.	说到这一趋势的害处，没有比艺术的商业化更大的了。


Even the much-praised notion of competition seems fake and cynically manipulated by the “corporate” mentality that now pervades the world of culture – by the financial pre-selection that determines what publishers, producers, and other impresarios will support.	当前的文化世界弥漫着“公司”思维——从财务角度出发预先选定发行商、制作商及其他艺术经理的支持对象——这使得即便是广受赞誉的“竞争”概念看起来也是假的，被可悲地操纵着。


Just imagine what might have happened with the works of, say, Proust, Kafka, Musil, Faulkner, or Borges had they been subjected to mass-market competition like shoes or cosmetics.	想象一下，将普鲁斯特、卡夫卡、穆西尔、福克纳和博尔赫斯像鞋子和化妆品那样置于畅销市场的竞争中去会是怎样一幅情景。


Culture is a necessary pause from the daily rat race, from our chaotic and often vulgar political surroundings, and it is a chance to recover our spiritual energy.	文化是快节奏生活中必须的调节剂，让我们从混乱可鄙的政治环境中暂时得到解脱； 同时也让我们的精神力量得到恢复。


Great books, music, and paintings are not only an extraordinary school of beauty, truth, and good, but also a way of discovering our own beauty, truth, and good – the potential for change, of bettering ourselves and even some of our interlocutors.	伟大的书、音乐和绘画不仅是非比寻常的真善美学校，也是我们自身真善美的发现之路——它们给我们带来改变潜能，完善我们甚至我们的对话者。


If this respite and refuge is gradually narrowed and invaded by the same kind of “products” as those that dominate the mass market, we are condemned to be perpetual captives of the same stunted universe of “practicalities,” the ordinary agglomeration of clichés packaged in advertisements.	如果这一缓冲器和避难所逐渐被某些主宰畅销市场的“产品”所压缩和侵蚀，我们就将沦为这一畸形“实用”世界的永久奴隶，沉沦在被广告包装着得常规陈腐题材集合中。


I was thinking again about these old and seemingly unsolvable questions during my re-reading of a quite challenging novel by a close friend and a great writer, not very present in the vivid landscape of American letters of today.	我是在阅读一本叛逆小说时开始再次思考这些老生常谈但似乎无法解决的问题的。 这本小说的作者是我的一位好友，一位了不起的作家，但在当今美国生机勃勃的文坛中并不经常露脸。


The theme, style, and echo of his work says a lot, I think, about our simplified world.	我认为，他的作品的主题、风格以及反响是对我们简单化世界的写照。


The novel is Blinding, by Claudio Magris.	这部小说名叫《炫目》（Blinding），克劳迪奥·马格里斯（Claudio Magris）著。


Hailed in Europe as one of the great novels of the twentieth century, Blinding arrived in America only after a great delay, and never received the attention that it deserved.	本书在欧洲大受欢迎，被目为20世纪的伟大作品之一，但很晚才进入美国，而且一直没有受到应有的关注。


Unfortunately, that is no surprise.	不幸的是，这一点都不令人奇怪。


The number of literary translations done nowadays in the United States is, according to a United Nations report, equal to that of Greece, a country one-tenth the size.	根据联合国的报告，如今美国文学翻译数量和希腊相当，而希腊只是一个只有美国十分之一的小国。


Imported books are thought to be too “complicated,” which is another way of saying that literature should deal with simple issues in a simple way, obeying the rules of the mass market, with its tricks of packaging, accessibility, advertisement, and comfort.	外来书籍被认为太“复杂”，潜台词就是文学作品应该用简单的方式处理简单话题，顺应畅销市场要求，需要包装广告、易得易读。


At the core of Magris’ book is the destiny of a group of Italian communists who travel to Yugoslavia after the Second World War to contribute to the construction of a socialist society, only to be caught in the conflict between Stalin and Tito.	马格里斯的书的中心是一群意大利共产党员的命运，他们在二战后前往南斯拉夫，帮助建设社会主义社会，但在斯大林和铁托的冲突中身陷囹圄。


They are imprisoned for their Stalinist allegiance; when they are finally allowed to return to Italy, their old comrades refuse to accept them.	他们因效忠斯大林而被捕； 而当他们最终获准返回意大利时，又被意大利老同志们拒绝了。


The book’s plot spans two centuries of revolution.	该书的情节跨越了两个世纪的革命。


Then, suddenly,	然后，突然地，


“the party vanished, overnight, as if all of a sudden a giant sponge had drained the entire sea, Adriatic and Austral, leaving litter and clots of mud, and all the boats stranded.	“党垮台了，在一夜之间垮台了，就好像是一块巨大的海面吸干了整个亚得里亚海和南海，留下一地狼藉，所有的船都搁浅了。


How can you go home again if the sea has been sucked down a vast drain that opened up beneath it, emptying it who knows where, into a void?	当海洋被海底的巨大排水口吸干，成为一片没人知道身居何处的滩涂时，你又怎能找到归途？


The earth is arid and dead, but there won’t be another one, nor another heaven.”	地球成了荒芜的不毛之地，但你找不到第二个地球，也找不到第二个天堂。 ”


The solitude of the individual facing his faith alone, without collective illusions, and forced to do something with himself in the arid, noisy world tells us something important about the exiled world of modernity and its complex and contradictory problems.	寂寞的人将孤独面对自己的信仰，没有集体幻觉误导他，他将被迫在荒原上自力更生； 而嘈杂的世界告诉了我们一些很重要的东西，关于这个被放逐的现代世界及其所包含的复杂而矛盾的问题的东西。


Magris’s novel is not only an important literary achievement; it also has a deep connection to the dangers that we face now, particularly the wave of fanaticism, from Mumbai to Oslo, in the name of a holy war against the “other.”	马格里斯的小说不仅是文学上的重大成就，它与我们当今所面临的危险有着深层次的联系，特别是从孟买到奥斯陆打着与“异端”圣战名义的狂热主义。


Are all the extremists searching for a new coherence, for a lost illusion of togetherness and a new hope of resurrection?	所有的极端主义都在寻找新的一致，寻找失落的团结幻觉，寻找复兴的新希望吗？


Can we ever forget September 11, 2001, the start of a bloody century in which the mystical force of hatred and destruction has recovered its strength?	我们可能忘记2001年9·11，拉开了神秘的仇恨和毁灭力量死灰复燃的血腥世纪的那一天吗？


Are Osama Bin Laden’s minions, the bloody Hamas-Hezbollah battalions, or troubled loners like Timothy McVeigh, Theodore Kaczynski, and now Norway’s Anders Behring Breivik, the “heroes” of our contemporary nightmare?	本·拉登的门徒、血腥的哈马斯-真主党武装，或麦克维（Timothy McVeigh）、卡钦斯基（Theodore Kaczynski）以及最近的挪威人布雷维克（Anders Behring Breivik）等其他困兽般的人物是我们当代噩梦中的“英雄”人物吗？


Is this the “rebel” response to an overly globalized, incoherent, and ultimately disturbing reality?	这是对过度全球化、不和谐以及令人不堪烦扰的现实的“叛逆”吗？


If so, their barbarism demands scrutiny – in relation to both historical precedent and to our modernity – rather than merely being labeled “monstrous” (though it certainly is that).	如果是的话，他们的野蛮行径就必须仔细审查——既要考察他们的历史渊源，也要研究他们与我们的现代性的关系——而不是给他们贴上“恶魔”的标签（尽管这在所难免）了事。


The new religious militants, fighting in the name of their particular and peculiar God, seem as fanaticized as the Fascists, Nazis, and Communists of earlier decades.	新的宗教激进分子是在各自不同的上帝名义下斗争的，正如几十年前的法西斯主义、纳粹主义和共产主义狂热。


Magris’s main character is a rebel in more than one embodiment: as Salvatore Cipico, one of the inmates in the communist concentration camp in Yugoslavia; as Jurgen Jurgensen,  ephemeral king of Iceland and a convict forced to build his own jail; and as Jason, the mythic adventurer searching for the volatile truth.	马格里斯小说中的主角是一个多重反叛角色：如萨尔瓦多·西皮科（Salvatore Cipico），南斯拉夫共产主义集中营中的一员； 又如约根·约根森（Jurgen Jurgensen），被迫自掘坟墓的短命冰岛国王；


A multilayered and complex chronicle of the devastating tragedies of the twentieth century, Blinding is an insistent, informed, and irreplaceable incursion into the moving landscape of the human soul, its wounds and voids, its vitality and versatility, its deep distortions and its unpredictable dynamics.	《炫目》是一部关于20世纪毁灭性悲剧的多层次复杂编年史，入木三分地描绘了不断变化的人类灵魂图景、它的创伤和空虚、它的活力和多能、它的深深的扭曲和它的不可预测的活力，这是一部坚韧的、信息量极丰富的、不可替代的作品。


It is a fascinating story about the conflict between ideals and reality, or Utopia and humanness; about being faithful to a cause and betraying it; and about sacrifice and solidarity.	这是一个梦幻般的故事，它讲述了理想和现实（或者说乌托邦和人性）的冲突，讲述了信仰和背叛的，讲述了牺牲和团结。


It is also a rich and original literary achievement that challenges today’s consumerist ethic.	这也是一部具有丰富内涵的反对当今消费主义思想的原创文学大作。


By renouncing simplicity, it also repudiates today’s prevailing confusion of information with literature, of facts with creativity, and best-selling products with true works of art.	这部小说断然否定简单化，也否定了当今的流行思潮——混淆信息与文学、现实与创造力以及畅销作品与真正艺术品。


The Age of Hyper-Uncertainty	超级不确定性时代


BERLIN – The year 2017 will mark the 40th anniversary of the publication of John Kenneth Galbraith’s The Age of Uncertainty.	柏林—2017年是约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷斯（John Kenneth Galbraith）的《不确定性的时代》（The Age of Uncertainty）出版四十周年。


Forty years is a long time, but it is worth looking back and reminding ourselves of how much Galbraith and his readers had to be uncertain about.	四十年很长，但值得回首并提醒我们自己加尔布雷斯和他的读者有多大的不确定。


In 1977, as Galbraith was writing, the world was still reeling from the effects of the first OPEC oil-price shock and wondering whether another one was in the pipeline (as it were).	1977年，在加尔布雷斯写作这本书的同时，世界仍在第一次欧佩克石油冲击的影响中挣扎，也不知道会不会有第二次冲击（后来发生了）。


The United States was confronting slowing growth and accelerating inflation, or stagflation, a novel problem that raised questions about policymakers’ competence and the adequacy of their economic models.	美国正面临增长减速、通胀加速，亦即滞涨，这个突出的问题令人们开始质疑决策者的胜任能力以及他们的经济模型的适当性。


Meanwhile, efforts to rebuild the Bretton Woods international monetary system had collapsed, casting a shadow over prospects for international trade and global economic growth.	与此同时，重建布雷顿森林国际货币体系的努力以失败告终，给国际贸易和全球经济增长前景蒙上一层阴影。


For all these reasons, the golden age of stability and predictability that was the third quarter of the twentieth century seemed to have abruptly drawn to a close, to be succeeded by a period of greatly heightened uncertainty.	出于所有这些原因，贯穿二十世纪第三个四分之一的稳定和可预测性的全球时代似乎戛然而止，随之而来的是一个不确定性突出的时期。


That’s how things looked in 1977, anyway.	无论如何，1977年的情况就是这样。


Viewed from the perspective of 2017, however, the uncertainty of 1977 seems almost enviable.	但是，从2017年的视角看，1977年的不确定性简直令人嫉妒。


In 1977, there was no President Donald Trump.	1977年，没有唐纳德·特朗普总统。


Jimmy Carter may not go down in history as one of the best US presidents, but he did not threaten actions that placed the entire global system at risk.	吉米·卡特也许不是美国历史上最好的总统个，但他没有威胁要采取让整个全球体系陷入危险的行动。


He did not turn his back on America’s international commitments such as NATO and the World Trade Organization.	他没有背弃北约和世界贸易组织等美国的国际责任。


Nor did Carter go to war with the Federal Reserve or pack its board with sympathetic appointees willing to sacrifice sound money to his reelection prospects.	卡特也没有向美联储宣战，或用同情他、愿意牺牲可靠货币助他连任的人选填充美联储理事会。


On the contrary, he appointed Paul Volcker, a towering pillar of monetary stability, as chairman of the Board of Governors.	相反，他认命了货币稳定的中流砥柱保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）为美联储理事会主席。


And although Carter did not succeed in balancing the federal budget, he didn’t blow it up, either.	而尽管卡特没能成功地平衡联邦预算，但他也没有弄得一团糟。


Whether Trump slaps a tariff on Chinese goods, repudiates the North American Free Trade Agreement, packs the Federal Reserve Board, or undermines fiscal sustainability remains to be seen.	特朗普是否会对中国商品课以关税、废除北美自由贸易协定、用自己人填充美联储理事会，或者损害财政可持续性仍有待观察。


Conceivable outcomes range from mildly reassuring to utterly catastrophic.	差可令人放心到十足的灾难都有可能。


Who knows what will happen?	谁知道会发生什么？


By today’s standards, Carter was the embodiment of predictability.	从今天的标准看，卡特简直是可预测性的化身。


In 1977, moreover, the prospects for European integration were rosy.	此外，1977年，欧洲一体化前景光明。


Denmark, Ireland, and, most notably, the United Kingdom had recently joined a rapidly growing European Community.	丹麦、爱尔兰以及最受瞩目的英国刚刚加入茁壮成长中的欧洲共同体。


The EC was attracting members, not losing them.	欧共体吸引着新成员，而不是失去它们。


It was a club that countries sought to join precisely in order to achieve faster economic growth.	它是一个俱乐部，国家之所以加入其中，正是为了实现更快的经济增长。


Moreover, to buttress its common market, the EC had just established a regional monetary system, the suggestively named “snake in the tunnel.”	此外，为了支持共同市场，欧共体刚刚成立了区域货币体系，并暗示性地命名为“隧道蛇”。


While this was far from a perfect monetary system, it had one very positive attribute: countries could leave in hard economic times, and rejoin if and when the outlook brightened.	尽管这远非完美的货币体系，但有一个非常积极的特性：各国可以在经济艰难时期离开，并在前景恢复光明后重新加入。


In 2017, in contrast, negotiations over Brexit will continue to cast a dark cloud of uncertainty over the European Union.	相反，2017年，围绕英国退欧的谈判将继续成为飘荡在欧盟上空的一朵乌云。


How those negotiations will proceed and how long they will take are anyone’s guess.	这些谈判如何进行、将消耗多长时间，我们都只能猜测。


Moreover, the main questions raised by Britain’s decision to leave – whether other countries will follow and, indeed, whether the EU itself has a future – remain far from resolved.	此外，英国退出欧盟的决定所带来的主要问题——其他国家是否会效仿，以及，事实上欧盟自身还有没有未来——也远未解决。


Meanwhile Europe’s monetary house remains half built.	与此同时，欧洲货币大厦仍然处于烂尾状态。


The eurozone is neither appealing enough to attract additional members nor flexible enough to grant troubled incumbents a temporary holiday, in the manner of the currency snake. The euro will likely survive the year, inertia being what it is.	欧元区既不足以吸引更多的成员，也不够灵活可以给陷入麻烦的成员暂时离开喘息的机会（即蛇形浮动）。


In 1977, uncertainties emanating from emerging markets were not on commentators’ radar screens.	1977年，源自新兴市场的不确定性根本提不起评论家的兴趣。


Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia were growing, although they depended increasingly on a drip feed of foreign loans from money-center banks.	拉丁美洲和东亚的发展中国家正在成长，尽��越来越依赖货币中心银行的外币贷款续命。


China, still largely cut off from the world, did not figure in this discussion.	中国仍然基本与世隔绝，不再人们的讨论范围中。


And even if something went wrong in the Third World, developing countries were simply too small to drag down the global economy.	而即便第三世界出现某些状况，发展中国家规模实在太小，不足以拖累全球经济。


The situation today couldn’t be more different.	今天的情况大相径庭。


What happens in China, Brazil, or Turkey doesn’t stay in China, Brazil, or Turkey.	中国、巴西或土耳其的情况所影响到的绝不仅限于中国、巴西或土耳其。


On the contrary, developments in these countries have first-order implications for the world economy, given how emerging markets have accounted for the majority of global growth in recent years.	相反，这些国家的形势将给世界经济带来最为重大的影响，因为近几年来新兴市场一贯贡献着全球增长的大部分。


China has an unmanageable corporate-debt problem and a government whose commitment to restructuring the economy is uncertain.	中国存在一个难以管理的公司债务问题，政府关于调整经济结构的承诺也处于不确定中。


Turkey has a massive current-account deficit, an erratic president, and an unstable geopolitical neighborhood.	土耳其存在巨大的经常账户赤字，有一位反复无常的总统，还有一个不稳定的地缘政治周边。


And if political scandals were export goods, Brazil would have a clear comparative advantage.	而如果政治丑闻可以出口的话，巴西将拥有明显的比较优势。


Although The Age of Uncertainty was about much more than the year 1977, it captured the tenor of the times.	尽管《不确定性的时代》跟多地是关于1977年的著作，但它抓住了时代的主旨。


But if Galbraith were writing the same book in 2017, he probably would call the 1970s The Age of Assurance.	但如果加尔布雷斯在2017年写作这本书，他可能会将20世纪70年代称为《确定的时代》。


A German Europe?	德国的欧洲？


LISBON/RIGA – Is the Europe that is emerging from the euro crisis a German one?	里斯本/里加——欧元危机中的欧洲成了德国的欧洲？


During the euro crisis, power in the European Union seems to have shifted towards national capitals in general, and towards one national capital in particular: Berlin.	欧元危机期间，欧洲联盟的力量似乎已经向主要国家首都转移，尤其是柏林。


But, with Germany introverted, France downgraded, and Britain semi-detached, the big story in European foreign policy is that the time has come for the little guy who thinks big.	但是，德国转内，法国降级，英国半独立，在欧洲外交政策的大故事Ａ是，让小家伙有大作用的时候到了。


In this Europe, the important moves are now sometimes made in Stockholm or Warsaw, not only in Berlin, Paris, or London.	在欧洲，这一重要举措不仅出现在柏林、巴黎或伦敦，现在也有时出现在斯德哥尔摩或华沙。


And, with major foreign-policy issues on Europe’s doorstep – whether in Egypt, Belarus, or now Syria – useful European initiatives are to be welcomed, regardless of where they originate.	欧洲门槛上的重大外交政策问题 - 无论是在埃及，白俄罗斯，或现在的叙利亚 – 实用的欧洲倡议是受欢迎的，无论它们源于何方。


Germany, in foreign policy as well as in economics, can exert decisive leadership in the EU – when it wants to.	德国无论在外交政策还是在经济上，都可以在欧盟中发挥决定性的领导地位。


For example, together with Poland, it led the EU’s attempt to develop a coordinated approach to Russia, and it flexed its muscles on Serbia.	例如，它与波兰一起，带领欧盟试图建立与俄罗斯的协调关系，并延伸向塞尔维亚。


But, on other issues – for example, Libya – Germany did not so much lead as use its newfound room for maneuver to follow its own preferences in the face of other EU members.	但是，在其他问题上，例如利比亚，德国没有为了自身利益在其他欧盟成员面前太多地使用回旋的新余地。


So the answer today to Henry Kissinger’s famous question about whom he should call when he wants to speak to Europe, is not necessarily “the German chancellor.”	所以，今天对于基辛格著名问题有关当他想与欧洲对话时该找谁的答案不必再是德国总理了。


While Berlin is increasingly imposing its economic preferences on others in the eurozone, it is not prepared to use military force as a foreign-policy tool, as it demonstrated in the case of Libya.	虽然柏林在欧元区不断加强其经济上对别国的影响，但它不准备使用武力作为外交政策工具，正如它在利比亚所做的那样。


Moreover, Germany, it seems, is becoming a “geo-economic power” driven by the needs of its export sector.	此外，德国似乎因其出口部门的需求驱动而成为一个“地缘经济力量”。


By using economic means to pursue its foreign-policy ends, Germany is gradually turning its back on its European partners.	用其经济手段来实现外交政策目的，德国正逐渐背向其欧洲伙伴。


Meanwhile, as France experiences a loss of power relative to Germany on economic issues, it continues to play a decisive role in foreign policy.	与此同时，法国经历了相对德国来说在经济问题上权力的损失，它仍在外交政策上发挥决定性的作用。


France led the Libya operation, and is doing much the same with attempts to impose stronger sanctions against Iran and provide support for the United Nations in Côte d’Ivoire.	法国引导利比亚运作，并试图对伊朗实施更严厉的制裁，正如其提供对联合国在科特迪瓦的支持一样。


But France’s unilateral approach often antagonizes its European partners.	但法国的单边主义做法往往使其与欧洲伙伴敌对。


For example, French President Nicolas Sarkozy preempted a common European position on the Palestinian statehood bid at the UN in September.	例如，9月份，法国总统萨尔科齐在联合国巴勒斯坦建国投票中抢占了欧洲共同立场。


In other words, even when France leads, it does not always do so in a constructive way.	换句话说，即使由法国来领导，它也并不总是用这样建设性的方式.


Apart from the decisive role that it played in Libya alongside France, Britain is becoming increasingly marginal in European foreign policymaking.	除了与法国一起在利比亚发挥了决定性的作用，英国在欧洲外交决策中变得日益边缘化。


Even before it vetoed a plan by eurozone countries to create a “fiscal union” at the European summit in December 2011, it was playing less of a leadership role than it traditionally has on key European foreign-policy issues.	尽管之前，在2011年12月的欧盟首脑会议上它否决了一项由欧元区国家提出的创建“财政联盟”计划，它在欧洲关键外交政策上的影响与其以前的传统领导地位相比正在逐渐减弱。


Britain has continued to support EU enlargement, closer links with Turkey, and development in Africa, but it has not launched any creative initiatives to bring other member states along or change the terms of the EU debate.	英国支持欧盟东扩，发展与土耳其更密切的联系及对非洲的开发，但还没有推出任何创造性的举措，使其他成员国支持或改变欧盟争论的条款。


On other issues, such as engaging “strategic partners” – China and Russia in particular – the United Kingdom is often a follower as well.	在其他问题上，如搞“战略伙伴”——特别是对中国和俄罗斯——英国往往也是支持者。


As the “big three” increasingly pursue their own narrowly defined national interests, however, other EU member states are emerging as leaders in key foreign-policy fields.	“三巨头”越来越追求自己狭隘的国家利益，而其他欧盟成员国正在成为重要外交政策领域的领导者。


For example, Sweden – the 14th largest member state in terms of population, and eighth in terms of GDP – under the leadership of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt punches considerably above its weight.	例如，瑞典——成员国中人口排列第14位，GDP第8位——在首相赖因费尔特和外交大臣卡尔·比尔特的领导下，其影响力远远大于其排位。


Last year, it increased annual aid to North Africa by SEK100 million (€11.1 million), proposed an EU mission to Tunisia just a week after the revolution to support democratic aspirations there, and was an early and strong backer of UN resolutions in support of the uprising in Libya.	去年，它对北非的年度支援增加了100万克朗（11. 1百万欧元），突尼斯革命一周后，它提出派一个欧盟代表团以支持那里的民主意愿，也是联合国有关支持利比亚起义决议的早期和强大的支持者。


Poland, too, is emerging as a foreign-policy leader.	波兰，也逐渐成为外交政策的领导者。


Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski have particularly taken the initiative on the EU’s strategy towards Russia, where Poland has largely overcome its differences with Germany and is now at the forefront of efforts to develop a genuinely comprehensive approach.	总理图斯克和外长西科斯基尤其在欧盟对俄罗斯的战略上采取主动，波兰已经在很大程度上克服了与德国的分歧，现在正努力发展真诚广泛的途径。


Poland has also led on European defense (though it declined to take part in the military intervention in Libya).	波兰也领导了欧洲防务（尽管它拒绝参加在利比亚的军事干预）。


This reflects the strength of the Polish economy, which is expected to grow by more than 3% in 2012 – faster than almost anywhere else in the EU.	这反映了波兰经济的实力���预计在2012年增幅将超过3％ - 比欧盟别的大部分国家更快。


Germany might be getting all of the attention in this time of crisis, but the last year has been a reminder that Europe is most effective and influential when the small countries get involved and join forces with – and even lead – the big ones.	德国可能在危机时刻得到更多的注意，但去年的情况证实，当小国同大国一起参与、甚至是领导时，欧盟会产生最大的效力和影响力。


For example, on Iran (with exceptions like Greece), Europeans have united around a clear policy and collective positions, such as an oil embargo.	例如，对伊朗（希腊除外），欧洲各国都共有一个明确的政策和一致的立场，如石油禁运。


So, Poland and Sweden:  Europe needs your leadership.	因此，波兰和瑞典：欧洲需要你们的领导。


But that might not be enough in an EU with more than 500 million citizens.	但在一个拥有500多万公民的欧盟来说这是远远不够的。


Other EU states need to follow their example in order to make European foreign policy truly effective and influential.	欧盟其他成员国需要以他们为榜样，使欧洲的外交政策有真正的效力和有影响力。


A German Glimmer in a Global Boom	全球经济繁荣中的德国曙光


In 2004, the world economy grew at a rate of 5.1%, the fastest pace in the last 28 years.	2004年，世界经济增长5. 1%，为过去28年中最快。


While Ifo`s World Economic Climate indicator, generated from quarterly surveys of 1,200 experts in 90 countries, worsened slightly during the first three quarters of 2005, it rose again in the last quarter, indicating a continuation of the boom.	Ifo的世界经济景气指标来源于对90个国家的1200名专家进行季度调查。 尽管这一指标在2005年的头三个季度稍微有所恶化，但是在最后一个季度中再次上升。


In 2005, growth is estimated to have been about 4.3%, and a similar rate can be expected in 2006, marking a period of sustained rapid global growth unseen since the 1970’s.	3%，预计2006年也会有类似的增长率。 这将是自上世纪七十年代以来所没有出现的全球经济快速持续增长的时期。


But the boom is not uniform.	但是，这一繁荣并不平衡。


In the United States, the number of experts giving a favorable assessment of the current situation declined; indeed, a majority believes that the economic situation will worsen during the next six months.	在美国，对现状作出有利评估的专家人数有所下降。 实际上，大多数人认为经济形势在以后6个月中将有所恶化。


However, in the Asian countries, including China, the optimism is unbroken.	但是，包括中国在内的亚洲国家却都很乐观。


The same is true for Eastern Europe, the ex-Soviet states, and Latin America.	东欧、前苏联国家以及拉丁美洲国家也是如此。


The big surprise is Europe, which, unlike in 2004 and the first half of 2005, now seems to be catching up with the rest of the world.	令人惊讶的是欧洲。 与2004年很2005年上半年不同的是，欧洲看起来正在赶上世界其他地方。


Whereas growth was a miserable 1.5% in 2005 in the 15 “old” members of the European Union, Ifo expects EU-15 growth to accelerate to 2.1% in 2006.	2005年15个“老”欧盟成员的增长率尽管只有可怜的1. 5%，Ifo预计，欧盟15国在2006年的增长将会加快到2.


To be sure, economic performance will vary widely among EU countries.	的确，欧盟成员国的经济表现差异巨大。 意大利居于人后，只有1.


While Italy will be the laggard, with only 1.1% growth, the Irish rocket will not lose its force, pushing real GDP up by about 4.8%.	1%，爱尔兰火箭般的发展速度不会降低，其实际GDP将增长大约4. 8%。


In general, the big EU countries are still performing badly, in contrast to the smaller members – hardly surprising, given that the EU is basically an institution to help the smaller countries overcome the drawback of their size by extending the agglomeration advantages that formerly were reserved to the bigger countries.	总体而言，与欧盟较小的国家相比，欧盟大国仍然差强人意。 这并不奇怪，因为欧盟机构基本上是通过给予小国以大规模经济优势而帮助它们克服狭小的弱点。


But even Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is experiencing an upswing.	但是，即使是欧盟最大的经济体德国也在上升。


The Ifo climate indicator for Germany, based on monthly surveys of 7,000 firms, jumped upwards in the second half of 2005, reaching its highest value since the boom year 2000, with businesses’ assessment of the current situation and expectations improving.	根据对7000家公司所做的月度调查，Ifo的德国经济景气指标在2005年下半年跃升，达到2000年繁荣之年以来最高值，工商界对当前形势和预期的评估也在改善。


After five years of stagnation, the economy is finally on the move.	经过5年的滞胀，德国经济终于开始复苏。


The driving force is external demand, as Germany, the world’s second-largest exporter, profits from the global boom.	外在需求是经济复苏的驱动力量。 德国作为全球第二大出口国从全球繁荣中受益巨大。


Exports increased by 6.2% in 2005 and are expected to increase by 7.4% in 2006.	2005年出口增长6. 2%，预计2006年可达7.


However, as we saw in 2004 and 2005, exports are not enough to create substantial growth if domestic demand does not follow.	但是，正如我们在2004年和2005年所看到的那样，如果国内需求跟不上的话，出口并不足以创造可持续的增长。


The good news for Germany is that investment demand is now growing, too.	德国的好消息是投资需求也在增长。


While the second half of 2005 was already quite good, Ifo expects investment in equipment to grow by a healthy 6% in 2006.	2005年下半年已经很好，Ifo预计，设备投资在2006年会健康地增长6%。


After many years of contraction, investment in construction also will rise slightly.	经历数年的萎缩，建筑投资也将略有增长。


Total investment growth is expected to reach 2.9% – weak by past standards, but nonetheless a promising salve for the wounded German mood.	整体投资增长预计达到2. 9%，这按照过去的标准而言是软弱的，但是对于受伤的德国情绪而言却是大有希望的宽慰。


Moreover, any investment growth is vital for Germany, which, according to the latest OECD statistics, currently suffers from the world’s lowest share of net investment in national income.	而且，对于德国而言，任何投资增长都是至关重要的。 根据经合组织最新统计数据，德国的净投资在全国收入中所占的份额目前是全球最低的，因此深受其害。


Even if Germany remains the world’s laggard, rising investment demand as such will contribute to GDP growth, which Ifo estimates at 1.7% in 2006.	即使德国仍然滞后于全球经济，如此增长的投资需求将会为GDP增长作出贡献。 Ifo估计，德国2006年的GDP增长率为1.


That number looks small compared to most other countries.	与其他大多数国家相比，这一数字相形见绌。


In fact, all EU countries except Italy and the Netherlands will grow faster.	实际上，除了意大利和荷兰以外的所有欧盟国家都将提速。


But everything is relative: Germany’s trend growth rate is just 1.1%, and the country has been the slowest growing EU country since 1995.	但是，所有的事情都是相对的：德国的趋势增长率仅为1. 1%，而且自1995年以来一直是欧盟国家中增长最慢的国家。


Measured against a disappointing past, even Germany is currently experiencing an economic boom.	与令人失望的过去相比，即使是德国目前也在经历经济繁荣。


Indeed, even German unemployment, which has been rising in cycles since 1970, will decline slightly in 2006, from 4.8 to 4.7 million.	德国的失业人数自1970年以来一直循环上升，即使如此，失业人数也会在2006年略微下降，从480万下降到470万。


The good economic data will reinforce initial favorable impressions of Angela Merkel’s new government, which got off to an excellent start at the EU Summit, where Merkel helped to broker a compromise between Britain and France on the Union’s 2007-2013 budget (by adding another €2 billion to Germany’s annual contribution).	良好的经济数据将巩固对莫科尔新政府的不错的印象。 莫克尔政府由于在欧盟首脑会议上帮助英国和法国就欧盟2007年到2013年预算达成妥协（将德国的年度分摊又增加20亿欧元）而崭露头角。


In fact, the government may even have contributed a bit to the good economic data by announcing a serious effort to consolidate Germany’s own public finances – a prerequisite for investor confidence.	实际上，莫克尔政府通过宣布有力措施巩固德国自身的公共财政而甚至可能为良好的经济数据作出了贡献。 巩固自身的公共财政对于投资者信心而言是前提条件。


According to the government, substantial tax increases will bring the fiscal deficit below the 3%-of-GDP limit set by the Stability and Growth Pact – a target missed for five consecutive years – by 2007.	根据政府的数据，大幅度增税将在2007年把财政赤字降低到欧洲稳定和增长公约规定的GDP的3%以下的限度。 过去5年来德国一直超过了这一限度。


The real test for the German government is the labor market.	德国政府真正的考验是劳动力市场。


Most observers now agree that Germany needs something like the American earned-income tax credit.	大多数观察家现在都认为，德国需要类似美国那样的所得税抵扣。


In Germany, it’s called “activating social aid” or “combi wages,” but the principle is the same: the state should reduce the money it pays for doing nothing and pay more for participating in the work force.	在德国，这被称之为“激活社会援助”或者“综合工资”。 但是原则是一样的，那就是，国家应当对好吃懒做者少给钱，而对参加工作的人应该多给钱。


That would widen the wage distribution, create jobs, and maintain the living standard of the poor.	这将会扩大工资分配，创造就业机会，并且维持穷人的生活水准。


Merkel announced in her inaugural speech in the Bundestag that her government will introduce such a system in 2006.	莫克尔在德国议会所作的就职演说中宣布，她的政府将将在2006年实施这一制度。


If this is more than lip service, and if she really carries out a serious reform of the German welfare state’s incentive structure, the result could be higher employment and structural economic growth.	如果付诸行动，而且她果真认真地改革德国福利国家的激励结构，结果将有可能会是更高的就业率和结构性经济增长。


In the long term, that would be more promising for the EU – and for the global economy – than the demand-driven performance that Germany is currently enjoying.	从长远来看，这对欧盟和全球经济而言要比德国目前所处的由需求驱动的经济表现更加有前途。


A Global Agenda for Seven Billion	70亿人的全球日程


NEW YORK – Late next month, a child will be born – the 7th billion citizen of planet Earth. We will never know the circumstances into which he or she was born.	纽约——下个月晚些时候出生的某个孩子将成为地球的第70亿位公民。 我们不会知道他会出生在什么环境中。


We do know that the baby will enter a world of vast and unpredictable change – environmental, economic, geopolitical, technological, and demographic.	但我们知道，这个孩子进入的是一个面临着不可预料的大变局的世界，不管是环境、经济、地缘政治、技术，还是人口。


The world’s population has tripled since the United Nations was created in 1945.	自联合国于1945年成立以来，世界人口已经翻了三倍，并且仍在增长，人口一起增长的是土地、能源、食品和水源压力。


And our numbers keep growing, with corresponding pressures on land, energy, food, and water. The global economy is generating pressures as well: rising joblessness, widening social inequalities, and the emergence of new economic powers.	全球经济也在制造压力：失业人数不断上升，社会不平等不断加剧，新的经济势力不断形成。


These trends link the fate and future of today’s seven billion people as never before. No nation alone can solve the great global challenges of the twenty-first century. International cooperation is a universal need.	这些趋势比以前更加紧密地与现今的70亿人民的命运和未来联系在一起。 没有哪个国家可以单枪匹马解决21世纪的重大全球挑战。


The 66th session of the UN General Assembly is a renewed opportunity for the countries of the world to set aside narrow, short-term interests and commit to cooperative efforts to address humanity’s long-term imperatives.	第66届联合国大会是一次崭新的机会，让各国抛弃狭隘的短期利益，承诺合作解决人类的长期使命。


At a time when all nations are experiencing individual challenges, we need to forge a worldwide common agenda that can help to ensure that the seven billionth baby and future generations grow up in a world characterized by sustainable peace, prosperity, freedom, and justice.	如今，所有国家都在经历各自的问题，我们需要创造一个全球共同日程表来帮助我们确保第70亿位公民以及我们的后代能在持续和平、繁荣、自由和公正的世界中成长。


To help create this future, I am focusing my second term as Secretary-General on five global imperatives – five generational opportunities to shape the world of tomorrow by the decisions we make today.	为了创造这样的未来，我的第二个联合国秘书长任期将专注于五大全球使命——五大以我们的当前决策创造明日世界的代际机会。


The first and greatest of these imperatives is sustainable development. We all must understand that saving our planet, lifting people out of poverty, and advancing economic growth are one and the same fight. We must connect the dots between climate change, water scarcity, energy shortages, global health, food security, and women’s empowerment. Solutions to one problem must be solutions for all.	我们所有人都必须明白，拯救地球、消灭贫困、推进经济增长是殊途同归之事。 我们必须把气候变化、水资源匮乏、能源短缺、全球卫生、食品安全和女性权利诸事联系起来。


In the next five years, we need to create a new economic vision for sustainable development and forge global consensus on a binding climate change agreement.	在未来五年中，我们需要创造一个新的可持续发展愿景，在有约束力的气候变化协议问题上达成全球一致。


Fostering economic growth, realizing the Millennium Development Goals, and combating climate change will all depend on creating a new energy system for the twenty-first century and extending it to every person on the planet.	推进经济增长、实现千禧年发展目标以及与气候变化做斗争均取决于创造一个面向21世纪的新的能源体系，并推广到地球上的每一个人。


Prevention as a framework for international cooperation is a second opportunity.	作为国际合作框架的预防是第二大机会。


This year, the UN peacekeeping budget will total $8 billion. Think of what we could save by avoiding conflicts – by deploying political mediation missions, for example, rather than troops.	今年联合国维和预算总额为80亿美元。 想想看，我们能够通过避免冲突剩下多少钱——比如用政治调解代替维和部队。


We know how to do this.	我们知道怎样做这件事。


Our record proves it – in Guinea, Kenya, and Kyrgyzstan.	我们在圭亚那、肯尼亚和吉尔吉斯斯坦的工作记录就是明证。


A third imperative is building a safer and more secure world. In this effort, we must be courageous in standing up for democracy, human rights, and peace.	第三大使命是打造一个更安全、更稳定的世界。 在这个问题上，我们必须提起勇气捍卫民主、人权和和平。


This year was one of signature achievements in restoring and securing peace – in Côte d’Ivoire, Darfur, Egypt, and elsewhere. But hatred and bloodshed still stand in the way of our vision for peace.	今年是在重塑并确保和平取得标志性成就的一年——在科特迪瓦、达尔富尔、埃及以及其他地区。 但仇恨和杀戮仍然是我们的和平愿景之路上显而易见的障碍。


In the Middle East, we must break the stalemate.	在中东，我们必须打破僵局。


Palestinians deserve a state.	巴勒斯坦人理应拥有自己的国家。


Israel needs security.	以色列需要安全感。


Both want peace. A negotiated settlement can produce these outcomes, and the UN is a platform for forging such a peace.	双方都盼望和平。 谈判解决方案可以创造这些结果，而联合国就是打造和平的平台。


So, too, will we continue our efforts to foster democratic governance in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sierra Leone. And, in the name of all of humanity, we will continue to push forward on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, in service of realizing a world free of nuclear weapons.	伊拉克、阿富汗、民主刚果、塞拉利昂的民主治理进程亦然。 此外，以全人类的名义，我们将在核裁军和核不扩散方面继续前进，致力于实现无核武器的世界。


The fourth big opportunity is supporting countries in transition.	第四大机会是支持转型国家。


This year’s dramatic events in North Africa and the Middle East inspired people around the globe.	今年在北非和中东所发生的重大事件鼓舞着全球人民。


Let us help make the Arab Spring a true season of hope for all.	让我们携手让阿拉伯之春成为人类希望的源泉。


In Libya, we are deploying a new UN support mission to assist the country’s transitional authorities in establishing a new government and legal order, consistent with the aspirations of the Libyan people.	在利比亚，我们正在部署新的联合国支持计划，协助该国过渡当局建立符合利比亚人民愿望的新政府和法律秩序。


Syria is a special concern.	叙利亚是个特别的问题。


For six months we have seen escalating violence and repression.	这半年以来，我们看到那里的暴力和镇压在不断升级。


The government has repeatedly pledged to undertake reforms and listen to its people. It has not done so.	叙利亚政府一再承诺实施改革、听取人民的意见，但始终不见实践。


The moment to act is now.	是时候采取措施了。


The violence must stop.	暴力必须停止。


Last but not least is the imperative of working with and for women and young people.	最后一项使命是与女性和年轻人携手共进。


Women hold up more than half the sky and represent much of the world’s unrealized potential.	女性顶起的不止半边天，她们代表着大部分人类为意识到的潜能。


We need their full engagement – in government, business, and civil society.	我们需要完全接纳女性——不管是政府、商业还是公民社会。


The UN has placed a high priority on promoting women at all levels of the Organization and this year, for the first time, UN Women is operating to promote the interests and rights of women all over the world.	联合国已经将全面提升女性在联合国中的地位作为高级优先事项，而在今年，联合国女性首次开始在全世界致力于提升女性权益。


Seven billion people now look toward the United Nations for solutions to the world’s great global challenges.	如今，70亿人看着联合国，希望它拿出解决方案应对世界重大挑战。


They hold different religions and backgrounds but common dreams and aspirations.	他们的信仰和背景各不相同，但梦想和愿望是一样的。


Our global future depends on bringing these individual talents and universal rights together in common cause.	地球的未来取决于将个人天赋和普世权利集中于共同事业下。


Let our common agenda begin.	让我们启动共同日程吧。


A Global Consensus Against Terrorism	全球反恐舆论


Mention the United Nations and the first reaction is likely to be the ongoing oil-for-food scandal and what it will mean for Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s ability to lead the organization for the remaining year and a half of his tenure.	一提及联合国，第一个反应可能就是正闹得沸沸扬扬的石油换食品丑闻，以及这一事件给联合国秘书长科菲·安南在今年及他余下的一半任期中对该组织的领导能力所带来的影响。


But there is much more going on at the UN than investigations.	但是除了调查之外，联合国内还在经历更多事情。


Reform is in the air – in part because of the scandal, but also because of the UN’s inability to deal effectively with challenges ranging from Rwanda and Kosovo to Iraq and, most recently, Sudan.	改革气氛弥漫——一部分由于丑闻，同时也因为联合国在处理从卢旺达、科索沃到伊拉克以及最近苏丹问题上表现出来的无能和无效性。


Even the UN’s most ardent supporters now recognize that change is called for if the organization is to make a significant contribution to international peace and security.	即使是联合国最忠实的支持者，现在也开始意识到，如果联合国要对国际和平与安全做出重要贡献的话，就必须有所改变。


Some of the reform talk concerns the UN Security Council’s composition.	一些有关改革的讨论涉及到联合国安理会的构成。


The Security Council represents what the World War II Allies believed the post-war world would look like and how it should be run.	安理会代表了二战同盟军所认同的战后世界格局以及如何管理这个世界。


This helps to explain why a much-weakened France was made a permanent member of the Council – and why Germany and Japan (and a not-yet independent India) were not.	这有助于解释为何一个力量已经大为削弱的法国能够成为安理会的常任理事国——而德国和日本（以及还未独立的印度）却不能。


Defending the Security Council’s current make-up is impossible; the need for change is beyond debate.	维持安理会目前的构成状态是不可能的，改变的需求无可争议。


But coming up with an approach that gains broad international support will prove extremely difficult.	但是要通过一种获得广泛国际支持的途径来达成此目标极度困难。


Great Britain and France will resist being replaced by a single EU seat, while making Germany a permanent member would only exacerbate the problem of Europe’s relative over-representation.	大英国和法国将会抵制他们两国被一个欧盟席位所取代，并且将德国推上常任理事国成员议席只会加剧欧洲相对的超额代表。 巴基斯坦将反对把印度加为安理会成员；


Pakistan would object to adding India to the Security Council; Argentina, Chile, and Mexico to adding Brazil; Nigeria to South Africa (and vice-versa); and several countries, including China, Indonesia, and South Korea, might resist creating a permanent seat for Japan.	尼日利亚反对南非（反之亦然）； 还有几个国家包括中国、印度尼西亚和韩国，也许反对日本成为常任理事国。


Clearly, fixing the Security Council will require considerable time and political effort.	显然，确定安理会需要大量的时间和政治努力。


In the meantime, there is important work to be done. One productive avenue would be to follow up on one of the recommendations of the High Level Panel that was endorsed by Annan; namely, that all UN members go on record declaring that terrorism has no place in today’s world.	同时，还有重要的工作要做，采取一项有效手段加强由安南签署成立的高级别小组(High Level Panel)所提出的一个建议，即所有联合国成员国都应当签署一个宣称恐怖主义在今日世界绝无立足之地的文件。


This will prove more difficult than it first sounds.	这做起来可比第一次听到的时候难多了。


For too long, the international community has tolerated terrorism – the intentional killing of civilians and noncombatants by non-state actors for political purposes – on the grounds that, on occasion, “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.”	国际社会已经容忍恐怖主义太久了——非政府机构有时出于“一个人的恐怖主义者是另一个人的自由战士”的理由，为了达到政治目的故意杀害平民和非战斗人员。


Historians have the luxury of debating whether terrorism may have been justified in certain situations in the past.	历史学家对恐怖主义可能在过去某些情形下被合理评价进行过大量辩论。


We do not.	我们不用这么做。


Modern terrorism is too destructive to be tolerated, much less supported.	现代恐怖主义太具破坏性以至于我们已经不能容忍，不能再对它有任何支持了。


Weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons – are just that, and no cause can excuse their use.	正是这些大规模杀伤性武器——核武器、生物武器以及化学武器，没有任何原因可以成为使用这些武器的借口。


Moreover, as the terrorist attacks on America of 2001 showed, weapons as basic as box-cutters can become weapons of mass destruction if they are used to exploit the vulnerabilities of modern, global life.	此外，正如恐怖分子2001年袭击美国所表现出的那样，如果被用以伤害当今全球的脆弱生命，即使是像纸箱切割刀这样基本的武器也会成为大规模杀伤性武器。


Terrorism is even less justified given that political avenues exist nowadays for pursuing political aims.	考虑到现存的为达成政治目的而使用的政治途径，恐怖主义更欠正当。


Palestinians can negotiate their future relationship with Israel and can count on American, Russian, European, and UN assistance.	巴勒斯坦能与以色列就他们未来的关系进行谈判，并能依赖于美国、俄罗斯、欧洲和联合国的援助。


Iraqis have elected their own representatives and are poised to write their constitution.	伊拉克人已经选举出了他们自己的代表，正准备起草他们的宪法。


No one pursuing reasonable goals and who is prepared to compromise can argue that terrorism is his or his group’s only option.	没有任何一个寻求合理目标或准备和解的人可以辩称恐怖主义是他的或他们党派的唯一选择方案。


The world has already taken some important steps against terrorism.	全世界已经采取了一些重要的措施来反对恐怖主义。


A dozen international conventions and numerous UN resolutions commit governments to oppose hostage taking, the hijacking of civilian aircraft, and terrorism more broadly.	12个反恐怖主义公约和诸多联��国决议要求各国政府更广泛地抵制绑架人质、劫持民用航班以及恐怖主义。


Similarly, the mandate of the Financial Action Task Force, created in 1989 to curb money laundering, has grown and become focused mainly on curbing terrorist financing.	同样，为打击清洗黑钱而成立于1989年的“国际金融特别行动组”（Financial Action Task Force）已经羽翼丰满，并把重点主要放在了打击恐怖主义融资上面。


UN Security Council Resolution 1373, passed after the September 11 attacks, calls on states to deny safe haven to terrorists, bring to justice anyone associated with terrorism, suppress recruitment by terrorist groups, block terrorists’ efforts to acquire weapons, and cooperate with other governments and international organizations in tracking suspects and boosting security.	911事件之后，联合国安理会通过的1373号决议，呼吁各国拒绝为恐怖分子提供安全避难，依法惩处任何与恐怖主义有关联的人，查禁恐怖主义集团的招募，堵住恐怖主义分子获得武器的各种途径，并与其他政府和国际组织一同追踪恐怖主义嫌疑犯并加强安全。


What is missing is a new, 13th convention that closes the loophole that seems to permit governments to decide what constitutes terrorism and what does not.	允许政府来决定什么是恐怖主义的构成是一个漏洞，现在缺少的是一个新的第13个公约来弥补这一漏洞。


Broad agreement is needed that any intentional killing of civilians and noncombatants is unacceptable, and that its perpetrators and supporters must be punished.	我们需要在广范围内达成一致，任何故意杀害平民及非战斗人员的行径都是不可接受的，任何罪犯或帮凶必须接受严惩。


Of course, such a convention will not prevent all future acts of terrorism.	当然，这样一个公约并不能防范将来所有的恐怖主义行动。


But ideas matter.	但是这个观念很重要。


Terrorism needs to be de-legitimized in the way that slavery has been.	恐怖主义应当像奴隶制一样被定为非法化。


Doing so will make governments and individuals think twice before becoming a party to terrorism; it should also make it less difficult to garner support for international action against those who nevertheless carry it out.	这样做能使得政府和个人在加入恐怖主义阵营前三思而后行； 也为那些反对实施恐怖主义行动的国际行动争取更多支持提供方便。


We are taught early on in our lives that the end cannot justify the means.	我们自小就被教育，即使目标正确，也不能不择手段。


It is time to put this principle into effect before many more innocent lives are lost.	在更多的无辜生命丧失之前，是时候将这条准则付诸实施了。


A Global Green New Deal	全球绿色新政


NAIROBI – With unemployment soaring, bankruptcies climbing, and stock markets in free-fall, it may at first glance seem sensible to ditch the fight against climate change and put environmental investments on hold.	内罗毕--目前，全球失业率窜升，破产上升而且股市大跌。 猛地一看，放弃应付气候变化以及暂缓环境投资或许是有道理的。


But this would be a devastating mistake of immediate, as well as inter-generational, proportions.	但是这将会是一个错误，其影响马上就会形成，而且会持续几代人。


Far from burdening an already over-stressed, over-stretched global economy, environmental investments are exactly what is needed to get people back to work, get order books flowing, and assist in powering economies back to health.	环境投资不仅不会给已经困难重重、举步维艰的全球经济带来负担，而且会正好给人们带来工作、订单并且协助各国经济恢复健康。


In the past, concern for the environment was viewed as a luxury; today, it is a necessity – a point grasped by some, but by no means all, economic architects yet.	如今，这是一项必需品。 有些人认识到了这一点，但是，并不是所有的经济规划者也都有这样的意识。


A big slice of President Barack Obama’s $825 billion stimulus package for the United States includes a boost to renewable energy, “weatherizing” a million homes, and upgrading the country’s inefficient electricity grid.	奥巴马总统价值八千二百五十亿美元的经济刺激计划中有一大部分包括大力提高可再生能源，给一百万房屋改进取暖御寒性能并且改进美国低效率的电网系统。


Such investments could generate an estimated five million “green-collar” jobs, provide a shot in the arm for the construction and engineering industries, and get America back into the equally serious business of combating climate change and achieving energy security.	这些投资可以产生大约五百万“绿领”工作，给建筑和工程产业注入一剂强心针并且把美国带回到气候变化以及实现能源安全的同样重要的任务上来。


The Republic of Korea, which is losing jobs for the first time in more than five years, has also spotted the green lining to grim economic times.	韩国在五年来第一次出现了失业上升的情况，但是也在严峻的经济时期中发现了绿色内容。


President Lee Myung-Bak’s government plans to invest $38 billion employing people to clean up four major rivers and reduce disaster risks by building embankments and water-treatment facilities.	李明博总统计划投资三千八百亿美元，雇佣人工清理四条主要的河流并且通过建设防护以及水处理设施来减少灾害风险。


Other elements of Lee’s plan include construction of eco-friendly transportation networks, such as high-speed railways and hundreds of kilometers of bicycle tracks, and generating energy using waste methane from landfills.	李总统计划的其他要素还包括建设生态友好的运输网络，例如高速铁路以及几百公里长的自行车车道，并且从垃圾堆中利用甲烷来制造能源。


The package also counts on investments in hybrid vehicle technologies.	这一计划还大力投资于混合燃料汽车技术。


Similar pro-employment “Green New Deal” packages have been lined up in China, Japan, and the United Kingdom.	中国、日本以及英国也有类似促进就业的“绿色新政”计划。


They are equally relevant to developing economies in terms of jobs, fighting poverty, and creating new opportunities at a time of increasingly uncertain commodity prices and exports.	这些计划对于发展中国家在就业、减少贫困并且在原材料价格和出口形势越发不确定的时候创造新的机遇同样重要。


In South Africa, the government-backed	这一计划也在危机中看到了机遇。 南非每年大约花费六千万美元清除威胁本国野生动物、水供应、重要旅游景点以及农地的外国侵入植物。


This work is set to expand as more than 40 million tons of invasive alien plants are harvested for power-station fuel.	随着四千多万吨侵入植物被割除用于发电燃料，这一计划将会扩大。


As a result, an estimated 500 megawatts of electricity, equal to 2% of the country’s electricity needs, will be generated, along with more than 5,000 jobs.	结果，将会产生大约五百千瓦的电力，相当于国家用电需求的百分之二，同时还会创造出五千个工作岗位。


So it is clear that some countries now view environmental investments in infrastructure, energy systems, and ecosystems as among the best bets for recovery.	因此，某些国家现在把在基础设施、能源系统以及生态系统上的环境投资视为经济复苏的最佳手段。


Others may be unsure about the potential returns from investing in ecosystem services such as forest carbon storage or in renewable energy for the 80% of Africans who have no access to electricity.	还有一些国家或许并不十分清楚投资于生态系统服务的潜在回报。


Still others may simply be unaware of how to precisely follow suit.	这些包括森林二氧化碳储存或者为没有电的百分之八十的非洲人提供可再生能源。


In early February, the United Nations Environment Program will convene some of the world’s leading economists at the UN’s headquarters in New York.	二月上旬，联合国环境规划署将在纽约联合国总部召集某些世界主要经济体国家开会。


A strategy for a Global Green New Deal, tailored to different national challenges, will be fleshed out in order to assist world leaders and ministers craft stimulus packages that work on multiple fronts.	会议上将会推出全球绿色新政计划。 这一计划将会针对不同国家的挑战而做出调整，从而协助世界各国的领导人和政府部长们制定在多种方面都奏效的经济刺激计划。


The Global Green New Deal, which UNEP launched as a concept in October 2008, responds to the current economic malaise.	联合国环境规划署在2008年十月推出了全球绿色新政这一概念，目的是应对当前的经济危机。


Spent wisely, however, these stimulus packages could trigger far-reaching and transformational trends, setting the stage for a more sustainable, urgently needed Green Economy for the twenty-first century.	但是，如果这些经济刺激计划得以明智地实施，就将会带来影响深远以及变革性的趋势，为二十一世纪急需的、更为可持续的绿色经济奠定基础。


The trillions of dollars that have been mobilized to address current woes, together with the trillions of investors’ dollars waiting in the wings, represent an opportunity that was unthinkable only 12 months ago: the chance to steer a more resource-efficient and intelligent course that can address problems ranging from climate change and natural-resource scarcity to water shortages and biodiversity loss.	各国已经动用了几万亿美元来应对当前的经济困境，加上投资者还有几万亿美元在等候，这就提供了一个在仅仅一年以前还是不可想像的机会，也就是导向一个更为灵巧、使用能源更为高效的解决问题的道路。 这些问题包括气候变化、自然资源贫乏、水资源短缺以及生物多样性的损失。


Blindly pumping the current bail-out billions into old industries and exhausted economic models will be throwing good money after bad while mortgaging our children’s future.	把目前的救市资金盲目地投入到旧产业以及穷途末路的经济模式中就是浪费钱财并且把子孙后代的未来用作抵押。


Instead, political leaders must use these windfalls to invest in innovation, promote sustainable businesses, and encourage new patterns of decent, long-lasting employment.	相反，政治领导人必需利用这些难得的机遇来投资于创新、促进可持续企业并且鼓励新的、体面而又长久的��业模式。


A Global Growth Bargain	全球增长协议


LONDON – US President Barack Obama caught the imagination of the world when he talked recently of a new “Sputnik moment.”	发自伦敦——美国总统奥巴马最近用一场关于新“卫星时刻”的演说勾起了全世界的想象。


He outlined a bold plan for improving education, infrastructure, and technology, and vividly compared the resolve required to put a man on the moon to the determination needed to restore growth to the US economy.	他提出了一个全面提升教育，基础设施和科学技术的宏伟计划，并雄心勃勃地将恢复美国经济增长的志向与当年执行登月计划的决心相提并论。


Obama is right to say that the West faces not only great challenges, but also great opportunities. In the last decade, the global economy was transformed by one billion Asian workers entering the ranks of industrial producers. In 2011, for the first time in two centuries, Europe and America face being out-produced, out-exported, and out-invested by China and the rest of the world.	在过去十年中，全球经济将10亿亚洲劳动者转型为产业工人。 随着2011年的来临，欧美地区在两个世界以来首次在生产，出口和投资三个方面同时被中国以及世界其他国家甩在了后面。


Yet Asia’s growth also gives the West unprecedented economic hope.	但亚洲地区的增长也为西方都带来了前所未有的经济曙光。


In this decade, the world will be transformed yet again by the rise of the Asian consumer. By 2020, Asia’s domestic markets will be twice the size of America’s.	在未来十年内，世界将在亚洲消费者群体的崛起中再一次发生转变。 预计到2020年，亚洲各国的国内市场规模将达到美国的两倍。


The world’s middle class will have swelled from one billion consumers to three billion.	世界中产阶级的数量也将由10亿增长到30亿。


The opportunities for growth in Europe and the US from this additional global demand are enormous.	这一新增需求也为欧美地区的增长创造了可观的机遇。


The countries and companies that will flourish in Asia’s new markets will be those that can provide the technology-driven, custom-built, high value-added goods and services needed to serve Asia’s two billion consumers.	那些能为这20亿亚洲消费者提供高技术含量，针对性设计和高附加值产品和服务的国家和企业将繁荣兴旺。


But neither Europe nor the US is in a strong enough position to take best advantage of these new markets.	但欧美两地似乎都尚未准备好以最佳状态投入这些新市场。


The West must again begin to out-invent, out-innovate, and out-skill the rest of the world if it is to seize the opportunities that Asia presents. Indeed, unless the West significantly expands its capital investment in engineering, science, and new technologies, it will be marginalized by countries whose governments back their innovators with hard cash.	如果想抓住这些亚洲市场机会的话，西方必须再度开始在发明，创新和技术等方面超越其他地区。 事实上，除非西方大规模扩张其在工程，科学和新技术上的资本投资，否则就将被那些政府大力支持创新者的国家边缘化。


Obama’s investment plan could be the foundation stone for a formal global agreement that delivers higher levels of growth to all corners of the world and creates millions of new jobs.	奥巴马的投资计划将可能成为一份正式全球协议的奠基石，而该协议不但会为全球各地带来更高程度的增长，还将创造数百万个新就业职位。


Under such an agreement, Europe would join the US in raising levels of investment – complementing America’s “moonshot” initiative with a program of structural reform aimed at building a digital, green, energy-efficient, and competitive economy – while China would play its part by increasing its consumption.	在这一协议下，欧洲将与美国携手扩大投资规模——通过推动一个旨在构建数字化、绿色环保，高能效以及高竞争力经济的结构改革来响应美国的“登月”倡议——而中国将担负起增加消费的角色。


I believe that such an agreement could boost the world economy by around 3% by 2014 – and lift 100 million people out of poverty.	我个人认为这样一项协议将在2014年提升世界经济增长约3%——并使1亿人摆脱贫困。


I presented this plan when I chaired the G-20 in London in 2009.	我在2009年主持伦敦G20峰会时就提出了这一计划。


I wanted East and West to commit to a formal strategy to deliver more enduring results than those promised by the rescue packages that we were putting together at the time.	我希望东西双方能致力于提出一个能产生更多长期效果的正式战略，而不仅仅是那些在危机时共同承诺的拯救计划。


Our attention was focused on preventing recession from turning into depression.	我们的注意力集中在防止衰退转变成萧条。


I argued that this was also the moment to pioneer a more lasting framework of growth.	我认为这同时也是一个创设更长久发展框架的好时机。


In the end, no agreement was possible on a shared growth objective, and there has not yet been enough political will for the coordinated action to achieve it.	但在会议结束之前，各方并未达成一个共同发展目标的共识，也缺乏足够的政治决心去合作实现之。


Since then, Europe and America have grown well below their capacity (despite huge unmet demand throughout the world) and unemployment has climbed to around 10% on both continents (with youth unemployment reaching an alarming 20%).	从那以后，欧美的发展速度显著低于其实际潜力（尽管面对着全世界的巨大需求也是如此）而大西洋两岸的失业率也攀升到近10%（青年人失业率则上升到危险的20%）。


The global growth agreement that evaded us in 2009 remains the unfinished work of the G-20.	而2009年未能达成的全球发展计划至今尚未完成。


Front-loaded public investment could be funded through an enhanced European Investment Bank.	前期的公共投资可以通过一个增强的欧洲投资银行来进行。


China has already laid the foundation for playing its part: its policy of xiaokang (reducing poverty and expanding the middle class) should create a market for billions of dollars of Western goods and services.	中国在这方面已经开始为其所扮演的角色打下基础：小康政策（减少贫困并扩大中产阶级）将为西方商品和服务创造一个价值数十亿美元的市场。


The West should propose that if China’s consumption increases by 2-4 percentage points of its GDP over the next three years (entirely possible as it improves its social safety net, cuts taxes, and puts homeownership within reach of ordinary citizens), America and Europe will expand their public investment by similar amounts.	西方应提议如果中国的消费占GDP的比例在未来3年内增长2~4%（假如中国改善其社会安全网，减税并令普通家庭都能拥有住房就完全能实现这一点），欧美都将增加同等比例的公共投资。


If other Asian countries do likewise, and agree to create a level playing field for exporters, we could create around 50 million additional jobs.	如果其他亚洲国家能够效仿并同意为出口商创造一个平等的平台，我们就能额外创造大约5000万个职位。


Of course, in the West, an investment plan invites criticism from those who prefer that we do nothing but talk about growth strategies.	当然，在西方，这样的投资计划都会招来那些只爱空谈发展计划却不愿动手者的批评。


Indeed, critics argue that raising public investment conflicts with the drive to reduce deficits, and warn of higher interest rates on the back of further spending.	事实上，批评认为增加公共投资与减少赤字的目标相冲突，并担忧政府进一步增加开支的行为会导致利率升高。


But critics are wrong about the impact on the deficit of focused investment.	但这些批评错误估计了集中投资对赤字所产生的影响。


A recent study by the International Monetary Fund produced unequivocal evidence that we can actually maintain deficit-reduction plans while benefiting from the additional capital investment that the US and European economies need.	世界货币基金组织最近给出的权威证据表明，我们可以在维持赤字削减计划的同时受益于欧美经济所需的额外投资。


My extrapolation of the IMF model shows that Western countries can boost their long-term GDP growth significantly by increasing their levels of capital investment over a three-year period.	依据世界货币基金组织的经济模型，我推断西方国家可以通过在3年内提高投资水平来推动长期的GDP增长。 一个仅等同于GDP0.


An annual stimulus equivalent to just 0.3% of GDP yields a return in the US of 0.8% in economic growth at its peak in 2013, and 0.4% in Europe.	3%的年度刺激计划可以为美国的GDP带来0. 8%的贡献，并在2013年达到顶峰，而同样的计划则能让欧洲的GDP取得0.


This approach, which secures growth and cuts unemployment without raising the deficit, is needed to energize the private sector and mobilize some of the capital that has accumulated on corporate balance sheets in recent years.	我们需要这一既能确保增长和削减失业，又不会提高赤字的手段来激活私人部门，并调动起近年来沉积在企业内部的资本。


It also underscores the importance of the G-20 and the IMF in seeking global consensus now.	同时也有助于凸显出G20和世界货币基金组织在达成全球共识方面的重要性 。


The West is well placed to play its part in global renewal.	西方在全球经济重建方面其实早已准备就位。


Its extraordinary workforces produce world-class goods and services.	它的优秀劳动力能提供世界级的商品和服务。


But the West’s workforce must not be condemned to policies that willfully produce a decade of slow growth and low employment.	但这些劳动力不应被那些蓄意导致长达10年的低速增长和高失业率的政策所拖累。


That would be a human tragedy, not just an economic disaster.	如果那样的话，这不但是一场经济灾难，更是一场人类悲剧。


A Global Perfect Storm	全球完美风暴


NEW YORK – Dark, lowering financial and economic clouds are, it seems, rolling in from every direction: the eurozone, the United States, China, and elsewhere.	纽约—不管往哪个方向看，金融和经济都是阴云密布：欧元区、美国、中国概莫能外。


Indeed, the global economy in 2013 could be a very difficult environment in which to find shelter.	事实上，到2013年，全球经济可能出现极其困难的情况，没人能独善其身。


For starters, the eurozone crisis is worsening, as the euro remains too strong, front-loaded fiscal austerity deepens recession in many member countries, and a credit crunch in the periphery and high oil prices undermine prospects of recovery.	首先，欧元区危机正在恶化，由于欧元维持强势，前瞻性财政紧缩将会深化多个成员国的衰退，而外围国信贷动荡和高油价又阻挠了复苏前景。


The eurozone banking system is becoming balkanized, as cross-border and interbank credit lines are cut off, and capital flight could turn into a full run on periphery banks if, as is likely, Greece stages a disorderly euro exit in the next few months.	随着跨国及银行间信用的收缩以及希腊可能在未来几个月无序退出欧元区将导致资本外逃演变为外围国银行的完全挤兑，欧元区银行系统正在分崩离析。


Moreover, fiscal and sovereign-debt strains are becoming worse as interest-rate spreads for Spain and Italy have returned to their unsustainable peak levels.	此外，随着西班牙和意大利利差回到再次达到不可持续的峰值水平，财政和主权债务紧张正在恶化。


Indeed, the eurozone may require not just an international bailout of banks (as recently in Spain), but also a full sovereign bailout at a time when eurozone and international firewalls are insufficient to the task of backstopping both Spain and Italy. As a result, disorderly breakup of the eurozone remains possible.	事实上，欧元区所需要的可能不仅仅是针对银行（目前是西班牙银行）的国际援助，而是在欧元区和国际防火墙不足以抵御西班牙和意大利事件的情况下进行完全的主权援助。


Farther to the west, US economic performance is weakening, with first-quarter growth a miserly 1.9% – well below potential.	在更远的西方，美国经济表现也在萎靡，一季度增长率只有区区1. 9%，远低于潜在增长率。


And job creation faltered in April and May, so the US may reach stall speed by year end.	此外，4月和5月就业增长不振，因此美国可能会在年底陷入停滞。


Worse, the risk of a double-dip recession next year is rising: even if what looks like a looming US fiscal cliff turns out to be only a smaller source of drag, the likely increase in some taxes and reduction of some transfer payments will reduce growth in disposable income and consumption.	更糟糕的是，明年发生二次探底的风险正在增加：即使看起来令人悚然的美国财政悬崖最终只是次要的拖累因素，税收的增加和转移支付的减少也将削弱可支配收入和消费的增长。


Moreover, political gridlock over fiscal adjustment is likely to persist, regardless of whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney wins November’s presidential election.	此外，不管是奥巴马还是罗姆尼赢得11月总统大选，关于财政调整的政治僵局都可能会持续下去。


Thus, new fights on the debt ceiling, risks of a government shutdown, and rating downgrades could further depress consumer and business confidence, reducing spending and accelerating a flight to safety that would exacerbate the fall in stock markets.	因此，关于债务上限的新斗争、政府破产的风险以及信用评级降级将可能进一步抑制消费和商业信心，拖累开支并加快资金涌向安全资产（从而加速股市下跌）。


In the east, China, its growth model unsustainable, could be underwater by 2013, as its investment bust continues and reforms intended to boost consumption are too little too late.	在东方，中国的增长模式是不可持续的，如果投资不振情况期许而提振消费的改革来的太晚、力度太轻，则可能将于2013年陷入衰退。


A new Chinese leadership must accelerate structural reforms to reduce national savings and increase consumption’s share of GDP; but divisions within the leadership about the pace of reform, together with the likelihood of a bumpy political transition, suggest that reform will occur at a pace that simply is not fast enough.	中国新一届领导人必须加快结构性改革，降低国民储蓄，增加消费占GDP的比重； 但领导人之间对改革节奏存在分歧，且政治权力的过渡可能并不平缓，这表明改革步伐可能跟不上需要。


The economic slowdown in the US, the eurozone, and China already implies a massive drag on growth in other emerging markets, owing to their trade and financial links with the US and the European Union (that is, no “decoupling” has occurred).	美国、欧元区和中国的经济减速已经对其他新兴市场造成了重大影响，这是由它们与美国和欧盟的贸易和金融联系决定的（也就是说，“脱钩”并没有发生）。


At the same time, the lack of structural reforms in emerging markets, together with their move towards greater state capitalism, is hampering growth and will reduce their resiliency.	与此同时，新兴市场结构性改革的缺位以及向国家资本主义的演进正在妨碍它们的增长、削弱它们的韧性。


Finally, long-simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other on the issue of nuclear proliferation could reach a boil by 2013.	最后，在中东，以色列和美国与伊朗关于核浓缩问题的紧张对峙可能在2013年爆发。


The current negotiations are likely to fail, and even tightened sanctions may not stop Iran from trying to build nuclear weapons.	当前的谈判可能会失败，即使收紧制裁可能也阻止不了伊朗制造核武器。


With the US and Israel unwilling to accept containment of a nuclear Iran by deterrence, a military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession.	由于美国和以色列不愿意用威慑的方式牵制有核的伊朗，因此2013年可能爆发军事冲突，这将导致油价的暴涨和全球衰退。


These risks are already exacerbating the economic slowdown: equity markets are falling everywhere, leading to negative wealth effects on consumption and capital spending.	这些风险已然对经济减速起到了推波助澜的作用：各国股市都在下跌，导致了消费和资本支出的负财富效应。


Borrowing costs are rising for highly indebted sovereigns, credit rationing is undermining small and medium-size companies, and falling commodity prices are reducing exporting countries’ income.	重债国的借贷成本在声声，信贷配额正在挤压中小企业，而商品价格的下跌正在拖累出口国的收入。


Increasing risk aversion is leading economic agents to adopt a wait-and-see stance that makes the slowdown partly self-fulfilling.	风险厌恶度的上升正在导致经济行为人采取静观其变的立场，而这给经济减速带来了某些自我实现的效果。


Compared to 2008-2009, when policymakers had ample space to act, monetary and fiscal authorities are running out of policy bullets (or, more cynically, policy rabbits to pull out of their hats).	与2008—2009年相比——当时决策者拥有充足的行动空间——货币和财政当局的手段快要用尽了（或者，更讽刺地说，快要黔驴技穷了）。


Monetary policy is constrained by the proximity to zero interest rates and repeated rounds of quantitative easing.	货币政策已经撞上了零利率和一轮又一轮量化宽松的南墙。


Indeed, economies and markets no longer face liquidity problems, but rather credit and insolvency crises.	事实上，经济和市场所面临的问题早已不再是流动���，而是信用和偿债能力危机。


Meanwhile, unsustainable budget deficits and public debt in most advanced economies have severely limited the scope for further fiscal stimulus.	与此同时，大部分发达国家的不可持续的预算赤字和公共债务水平严重掣肘了进一步财政刺激的空间。


Using exchange rates to boost net exports is a zero-sum game at a time when private and public deleveraging is suppressing domestic demand in countries that are running current-account deficits and structural issues are having the same effect in surplus countries.	在私人和公共去杠杆化侵蚀着经常项目赤字国内需而结构性问题给盈余国带来相同影响的当口，用汇率来提振净出口是一个零和博弈。


After all, a weaker currency and better trade balance in some countries necessarily implies a stronger currency and a weaker trade balance in others.	毕竟，一国货币贬值和贸易平衡的改善必然意味着其他国家货币升值和贸易平衡的恶化。


Meanwhile, the ability to backstop, ring-fence, and bail out banks and other financial institutions is constrained by politics and near-insolvent sovereigns’ inability to absorb additional losses from their banking systems.	与此同时，阻挡、隔离和原著银行及其他金融机构的能力也因政治和濒于破产国无力吸收银行系统更多的债务而被束缚住了。


As a result, sovereign risk is now becoming banking risk.	结果，主权风险正在演变为银行风险。


Indeed, sovereigns are dumping a larger fraction of their public debt onto banks’ balance sheet, especially in the eurozone.	事实上，不少国家（特别是欧元区）正在把越来越多的公共债务转移到银行的资产负债表上。


To prevent a disorderly outcome in the eurozone, today’s fiscal austerity should be much more gradual, a growth compact should complement the EU’s new fiscal compact, and a fiscal union with debt mutualization (Eurobonds) should be implemented.  In addition, a full banking union, starting with eurozone-wide deposit insurance, should be initiated, and moves toward greater political integration must be considered, even as Greece leaves the eurozone.	为避免欧元区出现无序结果，当下的财政紧缩应该大大放缓，新的欧盟财政契约应该辅之以增长契约，财政联盟应该辅之以债务共同化（欧元债券）。 此外，即使希腊脱离欧元区，也应该成立完整的银行联盟（以泛欧元区存款保险为第一步），并考虑进一步的政治一体化。


Unfortunately, Germany resists all of these key policy measures, as it is fixated on the credit risk to which its taxpayers would be exposed with greater economic, fiscal, and banking integration.	不幸的是，德国阻挠着所有这些关键性政策措施，因为进一步的经济、财政和银行一体化会让其纳税人暴露于信用风险中。


As a result, the probability of a eurozone disaster is rising.	结果，欧元区灾难的发生可能性变大了。


And, while the cloud over the eurozone may be the largest to burst, it is not the only one threatening the global economy.	尽管欧元区顶上的阴云最为可怖，但这并不是唯一威胁全球经济的因素。


Batten down the hatches.	我们还是未雨绸缪为妙。


A Global Solutions Network	全球解决方案网


NEW YORK – Great social change occurs in several ways.	纽约—社会发生深刻变迁的方式不一而足。


A technological breakthrough – the steam engine, computers, the Internet – may play a leading role.	技术突破——蒸汽机、计算机和互联网——可能起到了领导作用。


Visionaries, such as Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr., and Nelson Mandela, may inspire a demand for justice.	理想家——比如圣雄甘地、马丁·路德·金和纳尔逊·曼德拉——则受着公正要求的鼓舞。


Political leaders may lead a broad reform movement, as with Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal.	政治领导人也可能引领广泛的改革运动，比如富兰克林·罗斯福和他的新政。


Our own generation urgently needs to spur another era of great social change.	我们这一代人迫切地需要发生又一次伟大社会变革时代。


This time, we must act to save the planet from a human-induced environmental catastrophe.	这一回，我们必须从人类导致的环境灾难中拯救地球。


Each of us senses this challenge almost daily.	可以说，我们每一个人每一天都在感受这一挑战。


Heat waves, droughts, floods, forest fires, retreating glaciers, polluted rivers, and extreme storms buffet the planet at a dramatically rising rate, owing to human activities.	热浪、干旱、洪水、森林大火、冰川消融、河流污染、极端暴风肆虐地球的频率越来越高，而这一切都是人类活动导致的。


Our $70-trillion-per-year global economy is putting unprecedented pressures on the natural environment.	全球经济每年产生70万亿美元的产值，同时也对自然环境产生着前所未见的压力。


We will need new technologies, behaviors, and ethics, supported by solid evidence, to reconcile further economic development with environmental sustainability.	我们需要有扎实证据支撑的新技术、新行为和新伦理来协调未来经济发展和环境可持续性。


United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is taking on this unprecedented challenge from his unique position at the crossroads of global politics and society.	联合国秘书长潘基文正在承担这一前所未有的挑战——他身居一个独一无二的位置，战在全球政治和社会的十字路口上。


At the political level, the UN is the meeting place for 193 member states to negotiate and create international law, as in the important treaty on climate change adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992.	在政治层面，联合国是193个成员国一起坐下来谈判的地方，1992年里约地球峰会的气候变化条约等重要国际法就产生于这类谈判。


At the level of global society, the UN represents the world’s citizenry, “we the peoples,” as it says in the UN Charter.  At the societal level, the UN is about the rights and responsibilities of all of us, including future generations.	在全球社会层面，联合国代表着全世界的公民——联合国宪章所谓“世界各族人民”是也。 在社会层面，联合国代表着我们所有人——包括我们的子孙后代——的权利和义务。


In the past two decades, governments have come up short on solutions to environmental threats.	在过去二十年中，政府一直没能拿出应对环境挑战的方案。


Politicians have failed to implement properly the treaties adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit.	政客没能很好地实施1992年地球峰会通过的跳跃。


Ban knows that strong government action remains vital, but he also recognizes that civil society must also play a larger role, especially because too many governments and politicians are beholden to vested interests, and too few politicians think in time horizons that extend past the next election.	潘基文明白，政府的强势行动仍然是至关重要的，但他也知道，公民社会必须起到更大的作用，特别是当太多的政府和政客牵涉到既得利益而太少的政客能将目光放长到卸任以后的时候。


To empower global society to act, Ban has launched a bold new global initiative, for which I am grateful to volunteer.	为了增加全球社会行动的能量，潘基文抛出了一项雄心勃勃的新全球计划，我很高兴地自愿为之奔走。


The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network is a powerful effort to mobilize global knowledge to save the planet.	联合国可持续发展解决方案网（Sustainable Development Solutions Network）是潘基文的力作，意在动员全球知识拯救地球。


The idea is to use global networks of knowledge and action to identify and demonstrate new, cutting-edge approaches to sustainable development around the world.	该计划的想法是利用全球知识和行动网识别和展示全世界的高精尖方法可持续发展新方法。


The network will work alongside and support governments, UN agencies, civil-society organizations, and the private sector.	该网将配合并支持政府、联合国机构、公民社会团体和私人部门。


Humanity needs to learn new ways to produce and use low-carbon energy, grow food sustainably, build livable cities, and manage the global commons of oceans, biodiversity, and the atmosphere.	人类需要学习新方法制造和使用低碳能源、可持续地种植粮食、建设宜居城市、治理全球共有的海洋、生物多样性和大气。


But time is running very short.	但时间紧迫。


Today’s mega-cities, for example, already have to confront dangerous heat waves, rising sea levels, more extreme storms, dire congestion, and air and water pollution.	比如，如今的大都市已面临着危险的热浪、海平面上升、极端风暴数量增加、可怕的拥挤以及空气和水污染等问题。


Agricultural regions already need to become more resilient in the face of increased climate volatility.	农业区也需要更强的应对气候波动增加的能力。


And as one region in one part of the world designs a better way to manage its transport, energy needs, water supplies, or food supplies, those successes should quickly become part of the global knowledge base, enabling other regions to benefit rapidly as well.	而当作为世界一部分的某地区设计出更好的交通、能源需求、水攻击和食品供给管理办法时，其成功应该很快地变为全球知识数据库的一部分，让其他地区也能早日获益。


Universities have a special role to play in the new UN knowledge network.	大学在这一新的联合国知识网中起着特殊的作用。


Exactly 150 years ago, in 1862, Abraham Lincoln created America’s “land-grant” universities to help local communities to improve farming and the quality of life through science.	150年前的1862年，亚伯拉罕·林肯创造了“政府授地”（land-grant）大学，以帮助当地社区通过科学改善农业和生活质量。


Today, we need universities in all parts of the world to help their societies face the challenges of poverty reduction, clean energy, sustainable food supplies, and the rest.	如今，我们需要全世界的大学帮助所在社会应对减贫、清洁能源、可持续食品供给等挑战。


By linking together, and putting their curricula online, the world’s universities can become even more effective in discovering and promoting science-based solutions to complex problems.	通过互相连接以及将课程挂上网络，全世界大学可以在发现和促进基于科学的复杂问题解决之道方面变得更加高效。


The world’s corporate sector also has a significant role to play in sustainable development.	全球公司部门在可持续发展方面也起着重要作用。


Now the corporate sector has two faces.	如今，公司部门有着两副面孔。


It is the repository of cutting-edge sustainable technologies, pioneering research and development, world-class management, and leadership in environmental sustainability.	它是高精尖可持续技术储备库、研发活动先锋、世界级管理的先行者、环境可持续性的领导者。


Yet at the same time, the corporate sector lobbies aggressively to gut environmental regulations, slash corporate-tax rates, and avoid their own responsibility for ecological destruction.	但与此同时，公司部门也在大力游说放松环境监管、降低公司税率、逃避它们应付的生态毁灭责任。


Sometimes the same company operates on both sides of the divide.	有时候，同一家公司同时扮演着两方面的角色。


We urgently need far-sighted companies to join the Sustainable Development Solutions Network.	我们迫切需要具有远见卓识的公司加入到可持续发展解决方案网中来。


These companies are uniquely placed to move new ideas and technologies into early-stage demonstration projects, thereby accelerating global learning cycles.	这些公司在将新思想和新技术转化为早期示范工程方面能起到独一无二的作用，从而加快全球学习周期。


Equally important, we need a critical mass of respected corporate leaders to press their peers to cease the anti-environmental lobbying and campaign-finance practices that account for the inaction of governments. 	同样重要的是，我们需要超过临界数量的广受尊敬的公司领导者来向他们的同侪施加压力，停止可能导致政府不作为的反环境游说和政治献金活动。


Sustainable development is a generational challenge, not a short-term task.	可持续发展是几代人都将面临的挑战，不是一朝一夕可以解决的问题。


The reinvention of energy, food, transport, and other systems will take decades, not years.	能源、食品、运输和其他系统的更新换代需要几十年，而不是几年。


But the long-term nature of this challenge must not lull us into inaction.	但该挑战的长期性质并不是我们不作为的理由。


We must start reinventing our productive systems now, precisely because the path of change will be so long and the environmental dangers are already so pressing. 	正是因为变革需要极长时间，而环境风险已经迫在眉睫，我们才必须从现在就开始重塑我们的生产系统。


At the Rio+20 Summit this past June, the world’s governments agreed to adopt a new set of goals on sustainable development for the period after 2015, to build upon the Millennium Development Goals’ success in reducing poverty, hunger, and disease.	在去年6月的里约+20峰会上，全球政府同意在千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goal）在较少贫困、饥饿和病痛方面取得诸多成就的基础上设立新的面向2015年之后的可持续发展目标。


In the post-2015 era, the fight against poverty and the fight to protect the environment will go hand in hand, reinforcing each other.	2015年以后，全世界将携手共同抵抗贫困和保护环境。


Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has already initiated several global processes to help establish the new post-2015 goals in an open, participatory, and knowledge-based way. 	秘书长潘基文已经启动了数项全球计划以帮助全世界以开放性、参与式、以知识为基础的方式设定面向2015年后的新目标。


The Secretary General’s launch of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network is therefore especially timely.	因此，秘书长启动可持续发展解决方案网的举动可谓正逢其时。


Not only will the world adopt a new set of goals to achieve sustainable development, but it will also have a new global network of expertise to help achieve those vital objectives. 	全世界不但将接受新的可持续发展目标，还将拥有新的全球专家网络来实现这些关键目标。


A Good Rate Hike for Europe	欧洲升息的灵丹妙药


Two wrongs don’t make a right.	一错再错也不等于正确。


Just because European governments have failed to put bread on their constituents’ tables doesn’t mean that the European Central Bank should likewise fail in its job of promoting price stability in the euro zone.	仅仅因为欧洲政府未能把面包摆上选民的餐桌并不意味着欧洲央行也同样不能保持欧元区的价格稳定。


That may sound obvious, but abandoning price stability is exactly what some European politicians are advocating.	这听上去道理再明显不过，但某些欧洲政客却正在竭力鼓动放弃价格稳定。


For example, Italian politicians, who, given Italy’s recent dismal economic performance, would seem the least qualified to offer the ECB advice on monetary policy, are nonetheless advocating interest-rate cuts.	举例来讲，由于近来国内经济状况低迷，意大利政客照理应该是最没有资格向欧洲央行提出货币建议的，但恰恰正是他们拼命鼓吹削减利率。


Echoing comments by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Deputy Economics Minister Mario Baldassarri said in Il Sole 24 Ore last week that all efforts to boost growth are in vain “if someone is pushing on the brake pedal.”	秉承西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼的意志，意大利经济部副部长意大利经济部副部长巴尔达萨里上周在《二十四小时太阳报》撰文称“如果有人踩着刹车”，那么所有推动经济增长的努力都将化为泡影。


Who’s he kidding?	他在打趣谁？


If anyone is “pushing down on the Italian growth brake” it is Berlusconi himself.	如果真有谁“踩着意大利增长的刹车”，那正是贝卢斯科尼本人。


He has made no efforts at economic reform during his term and now seeks to blame the ECB for Italy’s lame economic performance.	他执政期间没有进行任何经济改革，现在又试图把意大利的经济疲软归罪于欧洲央行。


But it is precisely the lack of economic reform at home that has made Italy one of the least competitive states in the euro-zone economy.	然而，正是国内经济改革的匮乏使得意大利沦为了欧元区内最缺乏竞争力的国家。


More than the usual “blame game” is at work here.	这比通常所说的“责备游戏”更甚一筹。


Pressures are mounting on the ECB to raise interest rates – and Berlusconi and Co.’s attacks are as much as an attempt to forestall future rate hikes as to get the ECB to loosen its monetary policy.	欧洲央行升息的压力越来越大¾而贝卢斯科尼及其同伴的攻击既是为了在未来大幅升息的情况下占得先机，也是为了让欧洲央行放松其货币政策。


Soaring energy prices, for example, have become a leading inflation risk.	节节攀升的能源价格，举例来讲，成了导致通货膨胀的首要危险因素。


But higher energy prices, by themselves, will not cause the ECB to pull the interest-rate trigger.	但仅仅是能源价格上涨本身还不足以使欧洲央行调整利率。


The key will be so-called “second-round effects” – whether growing crude prices lead to higher wage demands from trade unions.	关键问题是所谓的“次轮效应”¾那就是原油价格上涨会不会导致工会提出增加报酬的要求。


So far, the “social partners,” as ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet likes to call the unions, have been quiet.	迄今为止，被欧洲央行欧洲央行行长特里谢行长特里谢习惯地称之为“社会伙伴”的工会内部仍然风平浪静。


Should this change, the ECB will have to raise rates even if Europe’s economic growth remains slack.	但如果情况有变，那么即便经济增长依然迟缓，欧洲央行也不得不采取升息的措施。


The good news is that economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to be picking up (even in Italy).	好消息是：欧元区国家的经济增长似乎正趋于好转（意大利也不例外）。