This led to a corresponding rise in registered cases – 386 since 1996.	这也导致了注册案件的相应增加——自1996年以来已有386件。


The ICSID and its jurisprudence thus became a central part of international investment law and policy.	于是，ICSID及其判决规程成为国际投资法律和政策的核心部分。


Yet the World Bank’s attitude toward the ICSID remained ambivalent.	但世界银行对ICSID的态度仍是矛盾的。


This was especially evident concerning compliance and enforcement, and matters came to a head with the deluge of cases brought against Argentina stemming from its 2001-2002 economic crisis.	这在遵守和强制方面显得特别明显， 2001—2002年阿根廷经济危机导致大量针对它的案件涌向ICSID，这一问题也暴露无遗。


Faced with a large number of claims, Argentina chose to draw out the process by systematically using annulment proceedings against any unfavorable decision, and linked any payment to domestic judicial review – a procedure that violates the language and intent of the ICSID Convention and the BITs themselves.	面对大量权利要求，阿根廷选择通过系统性地对每一项不利决定使用撤销诉请并把所有支付与国内司法复核相联系来延长整个过程——这一做法违反了ICSID惯例和BIT本身的条款和意图。


The strategy worked; Argentina has avoided making any payments to its creditors.	这一战略起效了； 阿根廷避免了向债权人支付任何款项。


But Argentina’s short-term gain came at a steep price.	但阿根廷的短期利益是有沉重代价的。


A perceived lack of enforceability weakens compliance with investment treaties and rewards repeat offenders, such as Argentina, which has appeared in more ICSID cases than any other state.	人们发现强制力不足，这减弱了投资条约的遵守，而一再违反条约者（比如阿根廷，它比其他任何国家出现在ICSID案件中的次数都要多）获得了好处。


Indeed, Argentina has developed a general attitude of impunity, the latest example being the expropriation of energy company YPF from Spain’s Repsol one year ago.	事实上，阿根廷形成了一种免罚的一般态度，最新的例子是一年前它从西班牙Repsol公司手中没收了能源公司YPF。


Moreover, the devaluation of the reputational benefit of being a party to the ICSID encourages countries to leave the system, as Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela have recently done.	此外，成为ICSID一方对名誉的好处被低估，这不啻于鼓励各国脱离该体系，玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔和委内瑞拉最近都这么做了。


The unfortunate byproduct of this self-reinforcing cycle of non-compliance and delegitimation is damage to the global economy in general, and, in particular, to the developing countries that are most in need of foreign investment.	这一不遵守和去合法化的自我加强循环的一个有害副产品是对总体全球经济造成了损害，特别是对最需要外国投资的发展中国家。


These countries are being denied a useful tool for attracting FDI, with recent evidence suggesting that signing a BIT by itself does not lead to increased inflows.	这些国家失��了一个吸引FDI的有用工具，最新证据表明，签署BIT本身并不会导致FDI流入增加。


For the moment, the only country that has taken real action is the United States, which last year suspended its trade-preference scheme with Argentina, owing to the country’s failure to pay ICSID-adjudicated awards to two US companies.	到目前为止，唯一真正采取行动的国家是美国，于去年中止了和阿根廷的贸易优惠机制，因为后者没有根据ICSID的判决向两家美国公司支付奖励。


As for Europe, the Lisbon Treaty gives the European Union exclusive competence in investment-related matters, but no mechanisms have been implemented to exercise this authority.	对欧洲来说，里斯本条约给了欧盟在投资相关问题上的独家权力，但目前尚未实行行使这一权力的机制。


The upcoming start of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks offer a key opportunity to advance the cause of stronger investment protection.	即将开始的跨大西洋贸易和投资合作伙伴谈判是一次推进更强贸易保护的关键机会。


As the two largest sources and destinations for foreign investment, accounting for a combined 56% of global FDI outflows and 42% of inflows, the US and EU have a particular interest in ensuring a well-functioning international investment regime.	美国和欧盟是最大的外国投资来源地和目的地，占全球FDI流出总量的56%和流入总量的42%，它们在确保国际投资机制的良好运转上利益最大。


An emphasis on investment protection could establish de facto international standards that ensure legal security for investors while providing sufficient scope for governments’ legitimate regulatory interests.	强调投资保护可以形成确保投资者法律安全同时又为政府的合法监管利益提供足够空间的实际国际标准。


The talks would have an even greater impact if the parties agreed on a unified approach to dealing with states that fail to meet their obligations.	如果各方能够形成统一的处理不履行义务的国家的方针，那么跨大西洋贸易和投资合作伙伴谈判将会形成更大的影响。


In thinking of ways to strengthen the ICSID, it would be helpful to consider the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism (DSM), which enjoys a remarkably strong compliance record.	在强化ICSID方面，考虑世界贸易组织的纠纷解决机制（DSM）是大有裨益的，DSM拥有令人瞩目的极佳的遵守情况记录。


Beyond the obvious availability of countervailing duties as an enforcement tool, several of the DSM’s institutional characteristics, which are absent in the ICSID, help to create and sustain legitimacy.	除了显而易见的作为强制工具的对抗性责任，ICSID所缺乏但DSM所有的一些制度性特征有助于创造和维持合法性。


For example, the existence of a permanent Appellate Body has led to significantly more consistent and predictable jurisprudence.	比如，存在永久性上诉机构能极大地提升规程的一致性和可预测性。


But, most important, the ICSID would greatly benefit from the level of institutional support that the DSM has at the WTO.	但是，最重要的是，ICSID将能够像DSM从世贸组织获得的那样极大地受益于制度性支持。


Reinforcing the ICSID is one of the biggest current challenges facing the World Bank and the international community.	强化ICSID是世界银行和国际社会当前所面临的最大挑战之一。


Without FDI, there cannot be development; and, without legal security, there will be no FDI.	没有FDI，就没有发展； 而没有法律安全，就没有FDI。


If we are to see truly global FDI flows, particularly to those countries that need them the most, we must begin to address the institutional deficiencies of the investment-protection regime.	如果我们想看到真正的全球FDI流动，特别是流向最需要的国家，我们就必须开始纠正投资保护机制的制度性缺陷。


Securing Nuclear Material	确保核材料安全


VIENNA – World leaders have devoted increasing attention in recent years to the risk of terrorists obtaining nuclear or other radioactive material.	维也纳—近几年来，世界领导人越来越关注恐怖分子获得核材料或其他放射性材料的风险。


That’s the good news.	这是好消息。


But all of us need to act with greater urgency in translating good intentions into concrete action.	但我们所有人都需要以更紧迫的行动将良好意图转化为扎实行动。


The risk of nuclear or other radioactive material falling into the wrong hands is all too real.	核材料和其他放射性材料落入坏人之手的风险是实实在在的。


There have been embarrassing security lapses at nuclear facilities, and sensitive material is often inadequately secured.	核设施的安全漏洞令人尴尬，敏感材料常常得不到充分保护。


Indeed, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) records numerous cases of theft and other unauthorized activities involving nuclear and radioactive material every year.	事实上，国际原子能机构（IAEA）记录表明，每年都有大量与核材料和放射性材料有关的盗窃和其他非法行为。


Most of these incidents are fairly minor, but some are more serious.	这些事件大多是小事情，但也不乏大事。


Some material goes missing and is never found.	一些材料丢失后再也没能找回。


An incident in Moldova two years ago involving highly enriched uranium – which can be used in a nuclear weapon – illustrates both the scale of the threat and the possibility of effective counter-measures if countries take the problem seriously.	两年前，摩尔多瓦发生了一起牵涉到高浓缩铀的事故（高浓缩铀可用于核武器），凸显出威胁之巨以及国家认真对待这一问题时采取有效遏制措施的可能性。


Police seized a quantity of the substance from an individual who was attempting to sell it.	警方从一名个人贩子手中搜获了一些浓缩铀。


The smugglers had tried to evade detection by building a shielded container – a worrisome level of sophistication on their part.	走私者制造了屏蔽容器来躲避检测，对他们来说，这是值得担忧的技术水平。


Fortunately, the Moldovan authorities had been working hard to improve their detection capabilities.	幸运的是，摩尔多瓦当局努力地改善检测能力。


They had also shared information with their counterparts in other countries.	它们还与其他国家同僚共享情报。


The uranium was seized in a sting operation.	浓缩铀在一次诱捕行动中被缴获。


Arrests were made and several people received prison sentences.	数人被捉拿归案并锒铛入狱。


Most cases of attempted trafficking do not involve nuclear material; rather, they involve radioactive substances of the type held in hospitals, factories, and other locations all over the world.	大部分非法交易案例并不包括核材料； 而是牵涉医院、工厂和其他世界各地场所使用的发射性物质。


These locations are generally not as well protected as nuclear facilities.	这些场所一般不像核设施那样得到良好的保护。


Even a relatively small amount of material such as cobalt-60 – used in radiotherapy – could cause serious harm if combined with conventional explosives in a so-called dirty bomb (or otherwise deliberately used to expose the public to dangerous radiation).	即使相对较小数量的钴（用于放射治疗）等材料，若加入常规爆炸物制成所谓的脏弹（或故意用来让公众接受危险的辐射）也能造成严重伤害。


Foreign and energy ministers will have an opportunity to strengthen the global nuclear security framework when they meet at the International Conference on Nuclear Security: Enhancing Global Efforts in Vienna on July 1-5.	外交和能源部长们有机会在7月1—5日的维也纳国际核安全会议：加大全球措施上强化全球核安全框架。


This will be the first such event that is open to all countries.	此次会议是第一次面向所有国家的事件。


At the top of the agenda should be ratification of improvements to a crucial nuclear security instrument – theConvention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material.	最优先日程应该是批准改进关键核安全工具——核材料人身安全公约（Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material）。


The proposed amendment would oblige countries to protect nuclear material when it is being used or stored, not just when it is being transported internationally, as is the case now.	修订方案要求各国承担在使用和储存核材料时进行保护的义务，而不是根据目前的规定在进行国际运输时才进行保护。


It would also require countries to protect nuclear facilities against acts of sabotage, which could have consequences similar to those of nuclear accidents.	公约还将要求各国保护核设施免受破坏行动，破坏和设施可能引起与核事故不相上下的后果。


The proposed amendment was agreed in 2005, but it still has not entered into force, because not enough countries have ratified it.	修订方案在2005年达成了一致，但仍没有产生强制效力，因为没有得到足够多的国家批准。


That needs to change if major vulnerabilities are to be addressed successfully.	这一状况需要有所改变，如果我们想解决主要弱点的话。


Nuclear security is a matter of global concern, and global action is required.	核安全是一个全球性问题，要求全球性行动。


Efforts by just a handful of major players will not be sufficient to keep the world safe.	光靠几个主要国家的努力并不足以保证全世界的安全。


We cannot afford to have weak links in our chain of defense.	我们担不起防护链出现弱环。


All countries must play their part.	所有国家都必须做好分内之事。


Even countries that do not possess nuclear or other radioactive material need to act.	甚至不拥有核材料和其他放射性材料的国家也需要有所行动。


There is evidence that criminal and terrorist gangs have attempted to traffic material through countries perceived to have lax security.	有证据表明，犯罪和恐怖帮派试图通过被认为安全措施不严格的国家运输材料。


It is imperative that they do not succeed.	我们不能让他们得逞。


One simple measure would make a big difference: All countries should allow peer reviews of their nuclear-security arrangements by international experts.	简单的措施就可以造成很大的不同：所有国家都应该允许国际专家横向评议核安全安排。


Peer reviews have been shown to work – for example, in improving safety at nuclear power plants.	横向评议被证明是有效的——比如在改善核电站安全方面。


Everyone benefits.	所有人都能受益。


Bringing experts in nuclear security together to share their experience is a no-brainer.	集中核安全专家共享经验十分容易。


More countries need to do it.	更多的国家需要这样做。


Following Moldova’s example, all countries should also ensure that law-enforcement officers are properly trained to respond to the menace of nuclear terrorism.	根据摩尔多瓦的榜样，所有国家还应该确保执法官员获得合适的训练以响应核恐怖主义威胁。


Countries must invest in equipment and infrastructure and share information across borders.	各国必须投资于设备和基础设施，并实现情报的跨国共享。


The fact that there has been no major nuclear terrorist attack should not lull us into a fall sense of security.	从未发生过核恐怖主义袭击这一事实不能让我们沾沾自喜，疏于防范。


The threat remains.	威胁依然存在。


We must seize the opportunity to ensure that our worst nightmare never becomes our waking reality.	我们必须抓住机会，保证最可怕的梦魇永远不会成为现实。


Strengthening the Stabilizers	强化稳定器


PARIS – The G-20 summit in Cannes in early November is a major opportunity to address the mandate, governance, and institutional capacity of the Financial Stability Board, the international body that monitors, and makes recommendations about enhancing, the international financial system.	巴黎——11月上旬的戛纳G20峰会将是一次修正国际监管机构金融稳定性委员会（Financial Stability Board，FSB）的授权、治理和制度地位以及给出强化国际金融体系建议的良机。


The meeting is particularly timely, because the FSB will soon be under new leadership, as its current chairman, Mario Draghi, takes over in November as President of the European Central Bank.	这次峰会可谓及时，因为金融稳定性委员会将很快迎来新的领导人，现任主席马里奥·德拉基（Mario Draghi）将于11月出任欧洲央行行长。


In the midst of the financial meltdown in 2008-2009, the G-20 established the FSB, building on its predecessor, the Financial Stability Forum, and charged it with coordinating urgent international regulatory-reform efforts to ensure greater financial stability and global consistency of rules.	金融稳定性委员会是G20在2008—2009年金融危机期间在金融稳定性论坛（Financial Stability Forum）的基础上成立的，其目的是为了协调紧急国际监管改革措施以保证金融稳定性和全球规则的一致性。


Even as the G-20 wrestles with the challenges of the global economic slowdown and the euro crisis, the mandate to the FSB remains central to a substantial financial-reform agenda – and to avoiding national and regional divergence in areas critical to the global financial system’s stability.	即使目前G20需要应对国际经济减速和欧元危机的挑战，金融稳定性委员会的授权仍然是实质性金融改革日程的核心，也是避免在对国际金融体系具有关键作用的领域出现国家和地区性分歧的关键。


The FSB has been criticized for lacking enforcement capability.	金融稳定性委员会一个被人诟病之处是它缺乏强制力。


But, in today’s world of sovereign states, treaties creating new international institutions with supranational powers are not realistic alternatives.	但是，在如今由主权国家组成的世界中，创造新的超越国家的国际机构的条约是不现实的替代方案。


Moreover, the FSB’s achievements are significant.	此外，尽管金融稳定性委员会的未来还面临诸多不确定性，但它已经取得了巨大的成就。


Its agenda is rapidly expanding, and it is becoming an influential and permanent component of the international economic and financial architecture, even as challenging questions surround its future.	其日程表正在迅速扩大，并日渐成为极具有影响力的国际经济和金融体系的永久组成部分。


Pragmatic steps to clarify the FSB’s mandate and enhance its operational effectiveness can and should be taken.	我们可以、也应该动些真格，阐明对金融稳定性委员会的授权，并增强它的操作效率。


Today, the FSB is without legal standing (it is only the product of a political statement).	如今，金融稳定性委员会缺乏法理基础（它只是一个政治宣言的产物）。


Institutionally, it is simply an extension of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel.	从制度上说，它只是国际清算银行根据巴塞尔协议的简单扩展。


It is funded through the BIS, which also seconds its small staff.	它通过国际清算银行得到资金，而后者的规模因此膨胀了不少。


Its internal governance processes are underdeveloped and lack transparency.	其内部治理过程还有待改进，而且缺乏透明度。


As the only entity that integrates central banks, supervisors, treasuries of major economies, and international standard-setting bodies, the FSB is uniquely positioned to set priorities on financial regulation, provide regulatory coherence across the financial sector, oversee consistent implementation, and, in conjunction with the International Monetary Fund, to assess systemic vulnerabilities.	金融稳定性委员会是唯一一个集中了主要经济体中央银行、监管者、财政部以及国际标准设置机构的实体，它在决定金融监管的当务之急方面居于独一无二的地位，它可以提供涵盖整个金融部门的监管一贯性，监督监管实施的一致性，并在IMF的合作下评估系统性脆弱程度。


But, while it should identify regulatory gaps and encourage more proactive work by the various standard-setting bodies, it should not take on daily operational responsibilities.	但是，金融稳定性委员会应该认识到监管差异并通过众多标准设置机构激励更加积极的工作，但不应该插手日常操作。


It should, however, foster a culture of consultation with industry as a necessary dimension of legitimacy, which implies more transparent approaches to considering the market impact of proposed standards.	不过，它应该培养征询产业界意见的文化，并将其作为合法性的必要条件，这意味着以更透明的方法考虑标准方案的市场影响。 。


Effective execution of such an ambitious mandate is particularly important in view of two emerging G-20 priorities for the FSB: regulatory initiatives with respect to the functioning of markets, including so-called “shadow banking” (the less regulated forms of private financing), and new mechanisms to foster consistent implementation of standards.	从G20关于金融稳定性委员会的两大当务之急看，有效地执行这样一个雄心勃勃的任务特别重要。 一是关于市场功能的监管方案，包括所谓的“影子银行”（较少受到监管的私人融资形式）；


Expectations of a greater FSB focus on shadow banking stem not only from non-bank financial institutions’ role in fueling the 2008-2009 crisis, but also from the concern that stiffer capital and liquidity requirements for banks might shift risk away from the financial sector’s regulated core.	加大金融稳定性委员会对影子银行的关注的预期不仅来自非银行金融机构在2008—2009年危机中的推波助澜作用，也来自对僵化的资本和流动性要求会导致银行将风险转移到金融部门监管法规管辖范围之外的担忧。


This will require carefully balancing the need to mitigate risks in the unregulated sector with the benefits that its efficiency and innovation provide to the financial system.	这要求仔细平衡减轻无监管部门风险的需要及其有效性和创新给金融体系带来的好处。


The FSB, along with the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, has been quietly considering new mechanisms for monitoring implementation of standards, particularly in the context of Basel III rules.	金融稳定性委员会已开始和巴塞尔银行监管委员会一道开始悄然考虑新的标准实施监控机制，巴塞尔III规则就是明证。


FSB membership should imply accountability in implementation of standards.	金融稳定性委员会成员资格应该意味着标准实施情况的可问责性。


In the absence of formal enforcement powers, the pragmatic alternative is to develop mechanisms for monitoring implementation of standards on an ongoing basis, and to incorporate systematic, impartial peer reviews.	在没有正式的强制权的情况下，现实的替代方案是出台基于动态的标准实施监控机制，并引入系统性的、无偏颇��同行评议。


The Cannes Summit should articulate a renewed commitment to consistent implementation of agreed regulatory reforms, and to minimizing divergence in national regulation that could create systemic risks or significant competitive advantage.	戛纳峰会应该响亮地喊出新的承诺，承诺一致地实施形成共识的监管改革，并让可能产生系统性风险或重大竞争优势的国家层面的监管分歧最小化。


The G-20 should provide the political support to develop a framework that relies on monitoring, consultation, mutual oversight, reporting, and publication.	G20应该为形成一个依赖于监管、意见征询、相互监督、报告和发布的框架提供政治支持。


It is in the financial industry’s interest to support the development of these mechanisms as a means to address the competitive implications of divergent national regulation.	支持发展此类消除因各国监管差异而产生的竞争力影响的办法的机制符合金融业的利益。


Finally, the G-20 should provide the FSB with adequate institutional capacity to address its tasks, but without creating a bureaucracy.	最后，G20应该授予金融稳定性委员会足够的制度地位以便让它完成自己的使命，同时又免于沦为一个官僚机构。


The first order of business is to endorse a capable and dedicated new FSB chairman.	第一步是选出一位尽心称职的金融稳定性委员会主席。


Beyond that, the FSB should be given legal capacity through proper incorporation – an institutionally intermediate point between its purely political status now and the extreme of a treaty organization.	然后，金融稳定性委员会应该通过适当的结构获得法律地位——介于其纯粹政治性机构的现状与条约组织的另一个极端之间。


This would enable to FSB to hire the best possible talent, receive funding from governments, and enter into more formal arrangements with other international bodies in order to carry out its responsibilities more effectively.	这将使金融稳定性委员会能够延请到最好的人才，获得政府资金支持，并参与与其他国际机构的更加正式的安排，以便其更好地承担自己的责任。


Striking Euro Gold (and Silver)	允许货币双轨制 给欧元找些“助手”


PRINCETON – The alternatives for Europe’s currency, the euro, seem increasingly limited to a desperate muddling through or a chaotic collapse.	普林斯顿——欧元的出路似乎越来越窄，要么在绝望里苟活，要么在混乱中崩溃。


But there is a bolder and more productive approach that relies on past experience with multiple currencies.	但是，更大胆更有效的办法其实是有的，过去多元货币制的经验表明了这一点。


The threat posed by Europe’s current policy impasse can hardly be overestimated.	欧洲当前政策裹足不前，其所带来的威胁怎么估量都不过分。


In the early 1930’s, monetary-policy incoherence paralyzed US policy, with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York locked in insurmountable conflict with the Chicago Fed over monetary easing (at that time through open-market securities purchases).	20世纪30年代初，货币政策分歧令美国的政策陷入瘫痪，纽约和芝加哥两地的联邦储备银行在货币宽松（当时通过在公开市场购入证券来操作）的问题上争执不下。


Today’s chronic policy disputes between Germany and France are producing a level of uncertainty that is potentially even more destructive.	如今，德法两国习惯性的政策争议也造成重大的不确定性，其潜在破坏力更甚于当初。


Every few months, European governments launch a new and ever more ingenious initiative to resolve the eurozone’s debt crisis.	每隔几个月，欧洲各国政府就会搞出一套新的天才的方案，试图解决欧元区债务危机。


For a day (and sometimes only for a few hours), financial markets rally euphorically.	于是金融市场在一种狂喜中反弹一天（有时甚至只有几小时）。


But soon doubt sweeps back in.	但怀疑情绪迅速卷土重来。


There is no sense of a realistic endgame.	看起来没什么切实可行的解决办法。


And there is no longer-term vision of how the fiscal integration needed for the effective operation of a monetary union could be achieved in a practical timeframe.	而货币联盟的有效运作所亟需的财政一体化，如何能在一个可操作的时间框架内得到实现，也没有任何长远的打算。


Europeans should look to the past, when previous crises produced innovative solutions.	欧洲人应该回顾历史，过去的危机往往催生过富有创造性的解决方案。


The extended crisis of the European Monetary System (EMS) between September 1992 and July 1993 looked as if it would derail European integration.	1992年9月至1993年7月间，欧洲货币系统（EMS）的持续危机，看似会让欧洲一体化列车出轨。


What was initially seen as a problem in one country (Italy) toppled other currency regimes like dominos: Britain, Spain, and Portugal – and, by July 1993, even France was vulnerable.	最初认为是一个国家（意大利）的问题，像多米诺骨牌一般推倒了其他国家的汇率：英国、西班牙、葡萄牙，到了1993年7月，连法国都摇摇欲坠。


Then, as now, Europe’s future was at stake.	当初就跟现在一样，关系到欧洲的未来。


The solution adopted in frantic late-night negotiations in Brussels initially looked counterproductive.	布鲁塞尔的深夜谈判最初拿出的方案看起来有害无益。


The massive widening of the EMS bands to 15% on either side of a central parity initially made a single currency appear more remote.	把EMS波动区间大幅扩大至中间价上下的15%，乍一看只会让单个货币更加孤立。


But it also took away the one-way-bet character of speculative attacks on vulnerable currencies, and thus removed the fundamental driver of instability.	但这一举措也消除了单边下注的条件，令投机性攻击无处发力，从而消解了不确定性的动力。


The modern equivalent of the band widening of 1993 would be to maintain the euro for all members of the eurozone, but also allow some of them (in principle, all of them) to issue – if necessary – national currencies.	当前，同1993年的举措相当的方案是，欧元区全体成员国坚守欧元，同时允许某些成员国（原则上是任何成员国）在必要时自行发行货币。


The countries that did would probably find that their new currencies immediately traded at a heavy discount.	一旦有国家这样做，它们可能会发现，新货币会以严重打折的方式被交易。


California recently adopted a similar approach, issuing IOUs when faced with the impossibility of access to funding.	美国加利福尼亚州最近就是这样干的，在融资无门之时，加州政府发行了欠条。


The success of stabilization efforts could then be assessed according to the price of the new currency.	有关国家巩固信用的努力是否成功，便可以根据新货币的汇率来评估。


If the objectives were met – fiscal stabilization and renewed growth – the discount would disappear.	如果目标达成——财政趋于稳定，经济恢复增长——其本币的打折程度就会收窄。


In the same way, after 1993, the French franc initially diverged from its old level, but, in a good policy setting, it then returned within the exchange-rate band.	就像在1993年之后，法国法郎最初贬值，然后又在良好的政策环境下回归正常汇率区间。


This approach has an important advantage: it would not require the redenomination of bank assets or liabilities.	这种方法有一个很大的优点：不需要对银行资产或负债进行重新计价。


As a result, it would not be subject to the multiple legal challenges that a more radical alternative would run into.	因此，它可以避免一些更激进的方案所必然遭遇的多重法律挑战。


Of course, there would also be the possibility that no convergence would occur, and that the two parallel currencies would coexist for a much longer period.	当然，也有可能出现打折幅度不收窄的情况，那样的话两种平行货币就会并存较长的一段时间。


This is not a novel thought.	这并不是什么新的想法。


One of the possibilities raised in the discussions on monetary union in the early 1990’s was that a common currency might not mean a single currency.	在20世纪90年代关于货币联盟大讨论的时候，就有一种观点认为，共同货币可以不是“单一”货币。


That possibility is not just a theoretical construct in fringe debates two decades ago; it is a real historical alternative.	那并不仅仅是20年前的一种理论空想，而是一种真正的历史可能性。


In fact, there is a rather surprising parallel for stable coexistence of two currencies over a long period of time.	事实上，两种货币并存形成稳定格局的情形不太可能出现。


Before the victory of the gold standard in the 1870’s, Europe had operated with a bimetallic standard for centuries, using silver as well as gold.	在1870年金本位确立之前，欧洲曾有好几个世纪实施双金属本位，金银货币并行不悖。


Each metal had its different coinage.	每种金属有其特殊的铸币。


This regime was so successful in part because the coins were used for different purposes.	这种体制成功的原因，部分在于不同的铸币被用于不同的目的。


High-value gold coins were used as a reference for large-value transactions and international business.	高价值的金币被当做大额交易和国际贸易的计价标准。


Low-value silver coins were used for small day-to-day transactions, including payment of modest wages and rents.	低价值的银币则用于日常交易，包括支付工资和租金等等。


Silver was what Shakespeare termed the “pale and common drudge ‘tween man and man.”	莎士比亚就把银币成为“人与人之间苍白而庸常的仆役”。


A depreciation of silver relative to gold in this system would bring down real wages and improve competitiveness.	在这一系统中，银币相对于金币的��值将压低实际工资，提升竞争力。


Early modern Italian textile workers would find their pay in silver reduced, while their products still commanded a gold price on the international market for luxuries.	近代早期的意大利纺织工人发觉他们的银币工资缩水了，而他们的产品仍然在国际奢侈品市场上保持坚挺的金币价格。


This is one of the reasons why theorists such as Milton Friedman considered a bimetallic standard inherently more stable than a monometallic (gold-based) regime.	这也就是为什么某些理论家如米尔顿·弗里德曼认为，双金属本位制比单金属本位（金本位）制具有更大的内在稳固性。


Nowadays, the equivalent of the adjustment mechanism in the early modern world of bimetallism would be a fall in, say, Greek wage costs paid in the national currency, as long as it was traded at a discount.	如今，引入一种类似近代早期双金属本位的调节机制，有助于降低希腊的工资成本（以本国货币支付），因其以打折方式交易。


These would be the silver currencies.	这就是今天的银币。


Meanwhile, the euro would be the equivalent of the gold standard.	与此同时，欧元相当于今天的金本位。


It would be kept stable by the institutions that already exist today, the European Central Bank and those national central banks that have no new alternative.	保证其币值的仅需现存机构即可——欧洲央行、各国国家银行，用不着建立新的机构。


In this sense, the core countries would be the equivalent of eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century Britain, which had only a gold-standard regime.	在这种意义尚，欧元区核心国家的地位相当于18世纪和19世纪早期的英国——当年奉行单一金本位制的国家。


Maintaining a choice of currencies in a national as well as an international setting seems odd and counterintuitive.	国家和国际货币并行的方案看似奇怪，违反直觉。


But it can – and has – been done, and it can be remarkably successful at satisfying peak demand for stability.	但它是可以实行的，也曾经实行过，而它眼下最大的作用，是可以满足对稳定性的极度渴求。


Don’t Bet on a Stronger Dollar	不要押注于美元升值


NEW YORK – Economic pundits, almost without exception, are predicting a stronger dollar in 2015 – an expectation that is leading investors to place some very large bets.	纽约—经济权威们几乎毫无例外地预测2015年美元将升值——这一预期正在让投资者们投下极重的赌注。


But that market strategy could turn out to be a very large mistake.	但这一市场策略可能会铸成大错。


The consensus reflects the fact that the United States is currently the only major economy where growth prospects are improving.	这一共识反映了一个事实：美国是当前唯一一个增长前景正在改善的主要经济体。


Most recently, the US Commerce Department revised upward its estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter of last year, to 5% – the highest rate in 11 years.	最近，美国商务部向上修正去年三季度GDP增长数字至5%——11年来的最高水平。


Moreover, the revision was based mainly on personal consumption and business investment – the most stable and persistent components of GDP.	此外，此次修正主要是基于个人消费和商业投资——GDP中最稳定、最持久的构成要素。


Consumer sentiment is at its highest level since 2007.	消费者情绪正处在2007年的最高水平。


Low oil prices, which reduce the cost of gas at the pump, provide an additional boost by giving US households more cash to spend at the mall.	低油价拉低了加油站的汽油价格，让美国家庭可以有更多的钱花在超市里，从而带来了额外的提振作用。


The unemployment rate is 5.6% and falling.	失业率为5. 6%，并呈现下降之势。


All of this not only enhances confidence that strong US growth will persist; it also reinforces the belief that the US Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates, conceivably as early as April.	所有这些不但增强了关于美国将保持强劲增长的信心； 也强化了美联储将开始升息的观点，据信升息最早将从4月开始。


For investors, this makes buying dollars even more attractive.	对投资者来说，这让购买美元变得更有吸引力了。


The other major economies, by contrast, are stagnant, slowing, or both.	相反，其他主要经济体陷入了停滞、放缓或两者兼而有之。


Europe’s economy is dead in the water, and the dreaded specter of deflation is looming ever larger.	欧洲经济仍是一潭死水，可怕的通缩幽灵越来越大。


Because policymakers are out of options, there remains little doubt that the European Central Bank will pursue quantitative easing, whether Germany likes it or not.	由于决策者已别无选择，毫无疑问欧洲央行将追求量化宽松，不管德国人是否喜欢。


European officials will welcome a weaker euro, which will improve competitiveness, at least modestly.	欧洲官员将欢迎欧元贬值，这将至少能够略微改善竞争力。


Meanwhile, in Asia, the Japanese economy’s sputtering indicators have spurred the Bank of Japan to increase its securities purchases, which likewise point to the prospect of a weaker yen.	与此同时，在亚洲，日本经济的萎靡信号刺激日本银行加码证券购买操作，有可能导致日元贬值。


And unmistakable signs of slowing growth in China are leading investors to ask, for the first time in years, whether China’s government will seek to engineer a weakening of the renminbi’s dollar exchange rate.	而中国经济减速信号已确信无疑，投资者们多年来首次质疑中国政府是否会追求人民币美元汇率贬值。


Other emerging markets’ growth prospects are even worse – not least because of low commodity prices.	其他新兴市场的增长前景还要糟糕——拜大宗商品价格低迷所赐。


As a result, these countries can expect lower capital inflows, again making for weak local currencies.	结果，这些国家资本流入将减少，导致本币贬值。


Such is the supposedly airtight case for a stronger dollar.	美元升值的逻辑看起来如此无懈可击。


How might it spring a leak?	还能出什么纰漏？


A first reason to doubt projections of a stronger dollar is that none of the news on which they are based is really news.	质疑美元升值预期的第一个原因是，这一预期所基于的消息早已不再是新闻。


The expectation of relatively strong US growth is already being reflected in the markets, with the dollar up 9% in trade-weighted terms since mid-2014.	美国增长相对强劲的预期早已反映在市场中——贸易加权的美元价值自2014年年中以来已升值9%。


Given this, only a change in fundamentals – the US economy outperforms the consensus forecast and the Fed initiates monetary tightening earlier than anticipated, or other economies’ performance is even worse than expected – would cause the dollar to strengthen further.	因此，只有基本面的变化——美国经济表现比一致预测还要强、美联储开始货币紧缩比预计的还要早、其他经济体的表现比预期还要糟糕——能让美元进一步升值。


In short, with the market’s best guess already incorporated into the exchange rate, the dollar is as likely to fall as it is to rise.	简言之，市场的最佳猜测已经体现在汇率中，美元升值与贬值的可能性一样大。


The second risk is that, even based on current growth expectations, investors may have gotten ahead of themselves in anticipating monetary-policy tightening.	第二个风险是，即使基于当前增长预期，投资者预测货币政策收紧也可能操之过急了。


The Fed will raise interest rates when it senses that the economy is nearing full capacity and that inflation – wage inflation, in particular – is accelerating.	美联储将在其认为经济已接近充分产能以及通货膨胀——特别是工资通货膨胀——开始加速时升息。


Labor-force participation will be key to shaping this environment.	劳动力参与度将是左右这一环境的关键。


As it stands, the low official unemployment rate can be explained partly by declining participation rates, especially among workers aged 25-54.	目前，低官方失业率部分可以解释为劳动力参与率下降所致，特别是25—54随年龄段的工人。


But there are now signs that the participation rate of these workers is stabilizing, and may even be set to rise.	但如今有迹象表明这额工人的参与度正在企稳，甚至可能上升。


If it does, the unemployment rate may stop falling, and upward pressure on wages would be limited.	果真如此的话，失业率可能会停止下降，工资增长压力也会得到限制。


The Fed would then delay tightening for longer than anticipated.	美联储也可能因此推迟预期中的紧缩。


Last but not least, unexpected financial problems – which lower oil prices could catalyze – would interrupt US growth and discourage the Fed from tightening.	第三，意料外金融问题——下跌的油价也许将成为催化剂——将干扰美国经济增长、让美联储不愿开始紧缩。


After China and Japan, oil-exporting countries, including Russia, are the largest holders of US Treasury securities.	石油出口国（包括俄罗斯）是继中国和日本之后的美国国债最大持有者。


If oil revenues fall further, they may be forced to sell those holdings, using the dollars to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and support their currencies or to bail out troubled banks, like Russia’s Trust Bank, the mid-size institution that the government rescued in December.	如果石油收入继续下降，它们也许将被迫出售所持美国国债，用美元干预外汇市场支持本币或拯救陷入麻烦的银行——如12月被政府拯救的中型机构俄罗斯信托银行（Trust Bank）。


Such developments would cause US debt yields to spike, disrupting growth.	这些发展趋势将导致美国国债收益率攀升、干扰增长。


The dollar would become weaker, leaving investors wrong-footed.	美元将贬值，投资者将押错注。


The dislocations could be severe.	其中的错位可能相当严重。


Currency forecasting is a mug’s game.	货币预测不啻瞎猜。


Exchange-rate movements over horizons as long as a year do not function according to theoretical models.	一年期的汇率波动并不会按照理论模型进行。


The behavior of currency markets has repeatedly confounded and even bankrupted sophisticated investors.	货币市场的行为一再令老谋深算的投资者大跌眼镜甚至破产。


With so much currently staked on the market moving in one direction, it is worth contemplating the consequences if this happens again in 2015.	如今，太多赌注都押在一个方向上，有必要思考一下这一幕在2015年重演会发生什么。


Escaping the New Normal of Weak Growth	摆脱增长萎靡的新常态


MILAN – There is no question that the recovery from the global recession triggered by the 2008 financial crisis has been unusually lengthy and anemic.	米兰—毫无疑问，自2008年金融危机所引发的全球衰退以来，复苏反常地漫长而低迷。


Some still expect an upswing in growth.	一些人仍在期待增长能够上扬。


But, eight years after the crisis erupted, what the global economy is experiencing is starting to look less like a slow recovery than like a new low-growth equilibrium.	但是，危机爆发过去八年后，全球经济正在经历的与其说是慢复苏，不如说是新低增长均衡。


Why is this happening, and is there anything we can do about it?	这是怎么发生的呢？ 我们又能对此做些什么？


One potential explanation for this “new normal” that has gotten a lot of attention is declining productivity growth.	对于这一“新常态”，一个收获大量关注的潜在解释是生产率增长放缓。


But, despite considerable data and analysis, productivity’s role in the current malaise has been difficult to pin down – and, in fact, seems not to be as pivotal as many think.	但是，尽管我们拥有大量数据和分析，但生产率在当前经济萎靡中的角色仍然难以定论——事实上，它似乎不如许多人所认为的那样重要。


Of course, slowing productivity growth is not good for longer-term economic performance, and it may be among the forces holding back the United States as it approaches “full” employment.	当然，生产率增长放缓对长期经济表现是不利的，并且是美国在接近“充分”就业之际拖其后腿的因素之一。


But, in much of the rest of the world, other factors – namely, inadequate aggregate demand and significant output gaps, rooted in excess capacity and underused assets (including people) – seem more important.	但是，在世界其他地方，其他因素——即源自产能过剩和资产（包括人力）利用率不足的总需求不足和巨大的产出缺口——似乎更加重要。


In the eurozone, for example, aggregate demand in many member countries has been constrained by, among other things, Germany’s large current-account surplus, which amounted to 8.5% of GDP in 2015.	比如，在欧元区，许多成员国的总需求一直受到德国巨大的经常项目盈余（2015年占GDP的8. 5%）等因素的制约。


With higher aggregate demand and more efficient use of existing human capital and other resources, economies could achieve a significant boost in medium-term growth, even without productivity gains.	如果总需求增加，现有人力资本和其他资源得到更高效的运用，那么即便生产率不提高，各经济体的中期增长也有望获得巨大提振。


None of this is to say that we should ignore the productivity challenge.	所有这些都不是说我们应该忽视生产率问题。


But the truth is that productivity is not the principal economic problem right now.	但真相是生产率并不是眼下最重要的经济问题。


Tackling the most urgent problems confronting the world economy will require action by multiple actors – not just central banks.	解决当今世界所面临的最紧迫的问题需要多方共同行动——而不仅仅是中央银行。


Yet, thus far, monetary authorities have shouldered much of the burden of the crisis response.	但是，到目前为止，货币当局承担了应对危机的主要责任。


First, they intervened to prevent the financial system’s collapse, and, later, to stop a sovereign-debt and banking crisis in Europe.	它们先是干预防止金融系统崩溃，随后又出手阻止欧洲主权债务和银行危机。


Then they continued to suppress interest rates and the yield curve, elevating asset prices, which boosted demand via wealth effects.	然后，它们继续抑制利率和收益率曲线、提振资产家而过，从而通过财富效应刺激需求。


But this approach, despite doing some good, has run its course.	但该方针尽管带来一些效果，也已经可谓物尽其用了。


Ultra-low – even negative – interest rates have failed to restore aggregate demand or stimulate investment.	极低甚至负利率没能重塑总需求或刺激投资。


And the exchange-rate transmission channel won’t do much good, because it does not augment aggregate demand; it just shifts demand around among countries’ tradable sectors.	汇率传递渠道没有多大用处，因为这无法扩大总需求； 而只是让需求在各国可贸易部门之间转移。


Inflation would help, but even the most expansionary monetary measures have been struggling to raise inflation to targets, Japan being a case in point.	通货膨胀是有益的，但即使是最具扩张性的货币政策也难以将通胀提高到目标水平，日本就是如此。


One reason for this is inadequate aggregate demand.	一个原因就是总需求不足。


Monetary policy should never have been expected to shift economies to a sustainably higher growth trajectory by itself.	我们根本不应该期待光靠货币政策就将经济提升至更高水平的可持续增长轨迹。


And, in fact, it wasn’t: monetary policy was explicitly intended to buy time for households, the financial sector, and sovereigns to repair their balance sheets and for growth-enhancing policies to kick in.	事实亦然：货币政策显然只是为家庭、金融部门和主权部门赢得时间修复资产负债表，为强化增长的政策赢得起效时间。


Unfortunately, governments did not go nearly far enough in pursuing complementary fiscal and structural responses.	不幸的是，政府在实施全面财政和结构性响应措施方面做得远远不够。


One reason is that fiscal authorities in many countries – in particular, in Japan and parts of Europe – have been constrained by high sovereign-debt levels.	一个原因是许多国家的财政当局——特别是日本和部分欧洲国家——受制于高企的主权债务水平。


Furthermore, in a low interest-rate environment, they can live with debt overhangs.	此外，在低利率环境中，它们可以通过债务积压过上好日子。


For highly indebted governments, low interest rates are critical to keep debt levels sustainable and ease pressure to restructure debt and recapitalize banks.	对重债国政府而言，低利率是保持债务水平可持续、减轻重组债务和银行的压力的关键。


The shift to a high sovereign-debt-yield equilibrium would make it impossible to achieve fiscal balance.	向高主权债务收益率均衡的转变将让财政平衡无法实现。


In the eurozone, the European Central Bank’s commitment, announced in 2012, to prevent debt levels from becoming unsustainable is politically conditional on fiscal restraint.	在欧元区，欧洲央行2012年所做出的阻止债务水平变得不可持续的承诺在政治上需要以财政抑制为条件。


There are also political motivations at play.	政治动机也在起作用。


Politicians simply prefer to keep the burden on monetary policy and avoid pursuing difficult or unpopular policies – including structural reforms, debt restructuring, and the recapitalization of banks – aimed at boosting market access and flexibility, even if it means undermining medium-term growth.	政客更愿意将担子甩给货币政策，避免实施旨在增强市场普及面和灵活性的不受欢迎的政策——包括结构性改革、债务重组和银行重组，即使这意味着破坏中期增长。


The result is that economies are stuck in a so-called Nash equilibrium, in which no participant can gain through unilateral action.	结果是各经济体陷入了所谓的纳什均衡，即所有参与者都无法通过单方面行动获益。


If central banks attempt to exit their aggressively accommodative policies without complementary actions to restructure debt or restore demand, growth, and investment, growth will suffer – as will central banks’ credibility, or even their independence.	如果中央银行想要在没有全面的重组债务或重塑需求、增长和投资的行动的情况下退出积极宽松政策，增长就会受损——从而央行信誉乃至独立性也会受损。


But exit they must, because expansionary monetary policies have reached the point at which they may be doing more harm than good.	但它们必须退出，因为扩张性货币政策已经达到了弊大于利的程度。


By suppressing returns to savers and holders of assets for a protracted period, low interest rates have spurred a frantic search for yield.	通过长期抑制储蓄者和资产所有者的回报，低利率已开始刺激人们疯狂地追求收益率。


This takes two forms.	这一行为有两种形式。


One is rising leverage, which has increased globally by about $70 trillion since 2008, largely (though not entirely) in China.	一是增加杠杆，自2008年以来，全球杠杆增加了大约70万亿美元，主要（但非全部）来自中国。


The other is capital-flow volatility, which has driven policymakers in some countries to pursue their own monetary easing or to impose capital controls, in order to prevent damage to growth in the tradable sector.	二是资本流动波动，这促使一些国家的决策者实施本国货币宽松或资本管制，以阻止可贸易部门增长受损。


It is past time for political leaders to show more courage in implementing structural and social-security reforms that may impede growth for a time, but will stabilize their countries’ fiscal position.	政治领导人表现出更多勇气实施不利于一时增长但有利于稳定财政状况的结构性和社会安全改革已经是过去式了。


More generally, fiscal authorities need to do a much better job of cooperating with their monetary counterparts, domestically and internationally.	更一般的情况是财政当局需要更好地与货币当局合作，不管是国内还是国际上。


Such action will probably have to wait until the political consequences of low growth, high inequality, mistrust of international trade and investment, and the loss of central-bank independence become too great to bear.	这一行动有可能必须等到低增长、高不平等、国际贸易和投资不信任以及央行失去独立性的后果大到难以承受才有可能实施。


That probably won’t happen right away; but, given the rise of populist leaders seizing on these adverse trends to win support, it may not be too far off.	这也许不会马上发生，但考虑到民粹主义领导人抓住这些不利趋势赢得支持，这一天可能不会很遥远了。


In this sense, populism can be a beneficial force, as it challenges a problematic status quo.	从这个角度，民粹主义倒也能带来一些好处，因为它对有问题的现状构成了挑战。


But the risk remains that, if populist leaders do secure power, they will pursue policies that lead to even worse results.	但风险仍然存在，如果民粹主义领导人赢得了权力，他们将实施导致更加糟糕的后果的政策。


The Pitfalls of Strongman Populism	强人民粹主义圈套


LONDON – The year 2016 showed that the durability of liberal democracy can no longer be taken for granted, even in the West.	伦敦—2016年证明了自由民主的持久性不可再想当然了，即便西方也是如此。


In fact, Harvard University political scientist Yascha Mounk’s analysis of World Values Survey data shows that, in many Western countries, public confidence in democracy has been declining for quite some time.	事实上，哈佛大学政治学家亚沙·芒克（Yascha Mounk）的世界价值观调查数据分析表明，在许多西方国家，公众对民主的信心下降已经有相当长的时间了。


What explains this trend?	如何解释这一趋势？


The political upheavals of 2016 suggest that many people are frustrated with democratic inaction.	2016年的政治剧变表明，许多人对民主不作为（democratic inaction）感到不满。


Slow income growth, unemployment, inequality, immigration, and terrorism are supposedly not being tackled decisively enough.	收入增长缓慢、失业、不平等性、移民和恐怖主义等问题都没有得到决定新的处置。


Democratic countries’ political establishments seem to be in a permanent state of torpor, fueling voter demand for strong leaders who promise to smash through political gridlock and sweep away bureaucratic resistance to bold new policies.	民主国家的政治建制似乎陷入了永久性的迟钝状态，这促使选民要求强势领导人承诺打破政治僵局，扫清官僚主义障碍，采取果断的新政策。


These leaders – who assert that they alone can fix their countries’ problems – are often sought, and found, in the corporate world.	这些领导人——他们主张只需要他们就能解决国家的问题——常常在公司届寻找，并且常常可以找到。


Many people regard a successful CEO as someone who can deliver on well-defined objectives, so they conclude that a businessman can solve social problems that a politician cannot.	许多人觉得成功的CEO能实现明确的目标，因此他们认为商人能够解决政客不能解决的社会问题。


But this view is misleading, because political leadership is fundamentally different from corporate leadership.	但这一观点具有误导性，因为政治领导力与公司领导力具有本质不同。


In economists’ parlance, it is the difference between general-equilibrium and partial-equilibrium analysis.	用经济学家的术语讲，这是一般均衡和局部均衡分析的区别。


Corporate leaders must deliver for their shareholders, and shouldn’t bother themselves too much with what happens to the rest of society.	公司领导人必须让股东满意，并且不能因为社会其他成员的反应而困扰到自己。


If profit maximization requires cutting costs and downsizing, the corporate leader can eliminate jobs and issue severance payments to redundant workers.	如果利润最大化要求削减成本，精简人手，那么公司领导人就会缩减岗位，向冗余员工支付遣散费。


What happens to these workers next is a concern for somebody else – namely, the state – to address.	这些员工接下来怎么办就是别人——即国家——的事了。


Political leaders, on the other hand, are bound by the principle of “one person, one vote,” and have a responsibility to take care of both the haves and have-nots, the employed and the unemployed alike.	另一方面，政治领导人受到“一人一票”原则的约束，他有责任照顾好有产者和无产者、有工作者和无工作者。


A politician must ensure that unemployed workers have new opportunities, or risk losing their votes.	政客必须确保失业工人能获得新机会，否则就有可能失去选票。


This is not to say that the CEO’s job is easier; but it is certainly more clearly defined.	这并不是说CEO的工作更加容易； 但显然CEO的工作定义更加明确。


Leaders who approach a political task with a corporate mindset are likely to focus more on efficiency than inclusion.	以公司思维完成政治任务的领导人可能关注效率甚于包容。


But if their reforms ignore or alienate too many voters, they could be reversed.	但如果它们的改革忽视或梳理太多选民，他们就有可能被赶下台。


As we saw in 2016, Western countries urgently need to find ways to compensate or assist those who have lost out in the current global economy.	2016年我们看到，西方国家急切地需要找到补偿或帮助在最近的全球经济中落后的人的方法。


This is a painful lesson that post-communist countries learned during the 1990s.	这是一个痛苦的教训，后共产主义国家在20世纪90年代曾经领教过。


According to “Transition for All,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s latest Transition Report, the first years of market reforms hurt the vast majority of those countries’ populations.	据欧洲复兴开发银行最新的转型报告《所有人的转型》（Transition for All），在市场改革的最初几年，这些国家的大部分人口都深感受伤。


Interestingly, many of the people who supported these reforms also favored “strong leaders.”	有趣的是，许多支持这些改革的人喜欢“强势领导人”。


They argued that, because the reforms were unpopular, they needed to be imposed on the public, rather than being impeded by excessively democratic processes.	他们认为，因为改革不受欢迎，因此需要强加给公众，而不是受到民主进程的过度阻挠。


Unfortunately, this argument backfired.	不幸的是，这一观点适得其反。


While some strong leaders managed to implement reforms quickly, the measures benefited only a minority of people, and many of them were eventually reversed.	一些强势领导人确实讯速地实施了改革，但改革措施只有利于一小撮人，而他们中大部分人最终都被赶下了台。


A typical example is privatization.	一个典型的例子是私有化。


State-owned enterprises are almost always inefficient, and often hoard labor.	国有企业几乎总是效率低下，并且人浮于事。


So, when they are privatized, they become more efficient, but they also shed workers.	因此，私有化后，它们变得更有效率，但也裁减了员工。


This is a positive development from a firm-level, partial-equilibrium perspective; but it may not be if one considers laid-off workers’ wellbeing and the general-equilibrium implications for society.	从企业层面的局部均衡角度，改革是积极的； 但如果从被裁员工的福祉和对社会的一般均衡影响的角度看未必如此。


If privatization displaces too many workers without compensation, a majority of citizens could come to see it as illegitimate, potentially undermining their support for private ownership of productive property.	如果私有化让太多的工人失去饭碗又不给予补偿，那么大多数公民就会认为私有化不合理，这有可能影响到他们对生产资料私有制的支持。


This is exactly what has happened in more than a few post-communist countries, where privatization has become a dirty word.	这就是诸多后共产主义国家所发生的事情，私有化成为一个贬义词。


The damage caused by certain unpopular reforms lasted far longer than the reforms themselves.	某些不受欢迎的改革所造成的伤害要比改革本身持续得更久。


In many post-communist countries, the pain they caused created the political conditions for populist strongmen to take over.	在许多后共产主义国家，它们所引发的痛苦为民粹主义强人的崛起夺权创造了政治条件。


And when some of these new leaders reversed the reforms, they also removed institutional checks on their power, in order to make it harder to challenge their decisions.	当其中一些新领导人逆行改革时，同时也移除了对他们的权力的制度制衡，因此他们的决定更加难以撼动。


Once they consolidated their hold on power, they redistributed the country’s wealth to their cronies.	一旦他们巩固了对权力的把持，他们就会将国家财富重新分配给亲信。


Not surprisingly, income inequality in many of these countries is worse today than it was when they abandoned privatization and other reforms.	毫不奇怪，许多这些国家的收入不平等性在今天要比它们放弃私有化和其他改革时更加严重。


This is why democratic institutions are so important: They enable those who have been harmed by reforms to receive compensation.	因此，民主制度至关重要：它们让改革的受害者能够获得补偿。


With “one person, one vote,” the “losers” count as much as the “winners.”	在“一人一票”制度下，“输家”和“赢家”一样重要。


Because truly democratic policies must be inclusive, implementing reforms in a democracy takes time and effort; but the painful process of building broad pro-reform coalitions also ensures that those policies will endure.	因为真正的民主政策必须是包容性的，在民主国家实施改革耗时耗力； 但构建支持改革的广泛同盟的过程固然痛苦，它确保了这些政策能够持续下去。


In the long run, inclusive reforms stick, and quick and dirty reforms do not.	从长期看，包容性改革能够坚持下去，而走捷径和肮脏的改革不能坚持下去。


The tortoise of democracy beats the hare of benevolent dictatorship.	民主的乌龟最终将战胜仁慈独裁的兔子。


Homelands for Plants	植物的家园


DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – My day begins with a cup of coffee and ends with hot chocolate.	北卡罗来纳州达勒姆 ——我以一杯咖啡开始、以一杯热巧克力结束一天的生活。


In between, I consume a variety of food and medicines, including my daily 81mg dose of aspirin.	其间我摄入各种各样的食品和药品，包括每天服用81毫克阿司匹林。


A brightly colored orchid enlivens my study, and, through the window, I catch a glimpse of my green garden.	绚烂多彩的兰花装点着我的书房，透过书房的窗口，我能够瞥见花园郁郁葱葱的景色。


In short, my life – like everyone’s – is enabled, enriched, and extended by a wide variety of plants and their derivatives.	总之，我的生活和你们每个人的一样既活跃又充实，琳琅满目的植物及其衍生品拓展了我的生活。


But the biodiversity on which all of us depend is under threat, as human activity devastates forests and other plant-rich habitats.	但人类破坏森林及其他植物品类富集之所的活动正逐步威胁到我们所有人赖以生存的生物多样性。


The question now is how quickly are species being destroyed – and what can be done to stop it.	现在的问题是物种的灭绝速度——我们能够采取哪些措施来阻止物种的灭绝。


Designing effective conservation strategies must begin with knowledge of the species we need to protect.	设计有效的保护策略必须从了解需要保护的物种开始。


So far, taxonomists have described roughly 297,500 plant species.	到目前为止，分类学家大致发现了约297,500种植物。


How many have they not yet described?	还有多少种仍没有被发现？


Where are we likely to find them?	我们又应该到哪里去发现？


It might seem that, as the pool of undescribed species diminishes, the rate at which taxonomists describe new species should decline.	看似随着未分类物种的减少，分类学家发现新物种的速度也应该相应变慢。


But the opposite has happened, with rates often increasing nearly exponentially from year to year – a phenomenon that can be explained largely by the growing number of taxonomists.	但实际情况却恰恰相反，发现新物种的速度往往按指数方式逐年递增——对于这种现象的解释恐怕是分类学家越来越多。


Indeed, it is only the ratio of new species to taxonomists describing them that is declining.	其实是新物种与分类学家的比例是在逐年降低的。


Based on this development, mathematical models predict that roughly 15% more plant species exist than are currently known, for a total of some 350,000 species – a figure that is consistent with expert opinion.	在现有基础上，数学模型预测植物总共约有350,000种，比目前所知的多出15%左右。 这一数字与专家意见其实不谋而合。


Perhaps half of the undescribed species have already been collected and housed in herbaria, where they await detection and analysis.	也许半数未确定物种已经被搜集到植物标本室，现在正在那里等待分析和检验。


To find the rest, taxonomists must rely on three general patterns governing species’ geographical distribution:	为了找到其余物种，分类学家必须依赖物种地理分布的三个一般模式：


· Most species have very small geographical ranges and are uncommon locally.	·   多数物种分布地理范围狭窄，并且在当地也十分罕见。


· The number of species found in any one habitat varies considerably.	·   单一栖息地发现的物种数量差异巨大。


Large tracts of boreal forest across North America and Eurasia have only a handful of tree species, while the Amazon basin may house 16,000.	北美和欧亚大陆的大片寒带森林仅有几个树种，而亚马逊盆地却可能有16,000种之多。


· Species with small geographical ranges are often concentrated in the same areas, but they tend to be in areas different from where the largest numbers of species live.	·   分布地理范围狭窄的物种往往集中在同样的区域，但它们的分布区域往往与数量庞大的物种不同。


Based on these patterns, one could predict that most undescribed species have small geographical ranges and are scarce within them – that is why we have not found them yet.	鉴于这样一种模式，我们可以预测多数尚未被发现的物种分布地理范围狭窄，而且在其分布范围内相对稀缺——它们也因此还没有被发现。


Moreover, they are likely to be located within known concentrations of species with small ranges, in areas like Central America, the Caribbean, the northern Andes, Brazil’s coastal forests, southern Africa, Madagascar, Southeast Asia, New Guinea, Western Australia, and many tropical islands.	此外，它们很可能生长在已知小范围物种富集的区域，比方说中美洲、加勒比地区、北安第斯山脉、巴西沿海森林、南部非洲、马达加斯加、东南亚、新几内亚、西澳大利亚和众多热带岛屿。


Given that most plants that are currently threatened with extinction – 20% of known species, and probably 30% of all species – fall within this category, efforts to preserve plant biodiversity should emphasize such concentrations of small-range species.	鉴于目前濒临灭绝的大部分植物——占已知物种的20%和所有物种的30%——属于上述类别，因此保护植物多样性的工作应当以小范围物种的聚集地为重点。


The fact that endangered plant species tend to be concentrated geographically raises the stakes for conservation efforts in those areas.	濒危植物往往在地理上相对集中的现实提升了保护工作在那些地区的重要性。


But it could also facilitate success by enabling policymakers to focus on narrow areas instead of vast habitats.	但这样的现实也可以使决策者把精力集中在狭窄的区域来获取成功。


The nearly 200-member Convention of Biological Diversity – which embodies the global consensus on the need to protect ecological diversity – aims to do just that.	有近200名成员的生物多样性公约体现了保护生态多样性的全球共识——该公约恰恰以此为目标。


The CBD’s Strategic Plan for Biodiversity calls for the formal protection of at least 17% of the most ecologically important terrestrial areas, while the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation seeks to protect 60% of plant species.	生物多样性公约的生物多样性战略计划呼吁为至少17%最具生态价值的陆地面积提供正式保护，而全球植物保护战略则力争保护60%的植物物种。


Given that some 67% of plant species live entirely within the selected areas, and an additional 14% live partly in these areas, this approach is highly promising.	鉴于约67%的植物物种完全生长在特定区域，另外还有14%部分生长在上述区域，这种方法的确很有前途。


Moreover, while some 13% of the world’s land area is currently protected, only 14% of the 17% that contains the most plant species fall within the protected areas.	此外，尽管目前全世界陆地保护面积约占总面积的13%，但在17%植物物种最富集的面积中只有14%属于保护区的范畴。


In order to improve the CBD’s chances of success, countries with higher concentrations of unique species need more robust protections.	为提高生物多样性公约成功的可能性，独特物种相对富集的国家需要采取更有力的保护举措。


Given that many of these countries are in the developing world, the international community should support such efforts.	鉴于上述国家中很多处于发展中地区，国际社会应当为此提供援助。


The situation is complicated by the “Noah’s Ark” effect: while a small total area can house many species, it may not be able to ensure their long-term sustainability.	“诺亚方舟”效应使得局面变得更为复杂：尽管一小片面积可以容纳很多物种，但却可能无法满足这些物种长期繁衍的需求。


In other words, even if the aggregate size of all protected areas is large, the individual areas may not be large enough to support viable populations.	换句话讲，即使保护区的总面积够大，但具体到某一片区域可能不足以支持种群的存活。


The ecological questions involved – how much area countries should protect, and where – are not easy to answer; doing so requires ever-deeper knowledge of plant species and their habitats.	个中所涉及的生态问题——各国需要保护多大区域、以及保护哪里——或许并不容易回答； 这样做需要对植物物种及其栖息地的了解不断深入。


And translating those answers into action demands something that may be even more difficult to secure: strong and sustained political will.	将那些答案转化为行动所需要的强烈而持久的政治意愿或许更难保证。


Stumbling in the Dark	黑灯瞎火


SAO PAULO – As well-intentioned gestures go, Earth Hour is hard to beat.	圣保罗——作为一种出于好意的作秀，“地球一小时”（Earth Hour）活动难逢对手。


At the stroke of 8:30 p.m. on Saturday, March 27, nearly a billion people in more than 120 countries demonstrated their desire to do something about global warming by switching off their lights for an hour.	3月27日周六，晚上8:30，超过120个国家的将近10亿群众关灯一小时，以表达为应对全球变暖出一份力的心愿。


In a show of official solidarity, the lights also went out at many of the planet’s most iconic landmarks, from the Opera House in Sydney to the Great Pyramid at Giza, not to mention Beijing’s Forbidden City, New York’s Empire State Building, London’s Big Ben, Paris’s Eiffel Tower, and the skylines of both Hong Kong and Las Vegas.	一些国家的政府为了显示对这一活动的支持，也熄灭了地标性建筑的照明灯光，从悉尼歌剧院到胡夫金字塔，以及北京的紫禁城、纽约的帝国大厦、伦敦的大本钟、巴黎的艾菲尔铁塔乃至香港和拉斯维加斯的摩天大厦。


What ever else it may be, Earth Hour is surely one of the most successful publicity stunts ever dreamed up.	姑且不论其他意义，“地球一小时”肯定是人类能想象出来的最成功的大众行为艺术之一。


First organized in Sydney, Australia, in 2007 by the local chapter of the World Wildlife Fund, its popularity and the level of participation (both individual and official) that generates has exploded in recent years – to the point that there is barely a corner of the earth that the campaign hasn’t touched.	2007年，它在澳大利亚悉尼搞了第一次，由世界自然基金会（WWF）悉尼分会发起，近年来，它的流行程度和（个人与政府的）公众参与度呈爆炸式增长，以至于其足迹几乎遍及世界各个角落。


As Greg Bourne, CEO of World Wildlife Fund in Australia, put it: “We have everyone from Casablanca to the safari camps of Namibia and Tanzania taking part.”	正如WWF澳大利亚分会CEO格雷格·伯恩（Greg Bourne）所言：“从卡萨布兰卡的大饭店到纳米比亚、坦桑尼亚的狩猎营地，都有人参与我们的活动。 ”


But has Earth Hour actually done anything to halt – or even slow – global warming?	可是，“地球一小时”真的能起什么作用，阻止——哪怕减缓全球变暖吗？


Not so much.	恐怕不能。


The event’s popularity is not hard to fathom.	这个活动那么受欢迎，不难理解。


Who but the most die-hard global-warming denier could resist the notion, as Earth Hour’s American website phrased it this year, that merely “by flipping off your lights on March 27 at 8:30 p.m. local time you will be making the switch to a cleaner, more secure nation”?	看看美国官网今年的宣传语：“当地时间3月27日晚8:30，只要你随手关灯，就是在帮助这个国家走向更清洁、更安全的未来。 ”除了那些死硬的全球变暖否定论者而外，谁能抵御这种想法的诱惑呢？


Needless to say, this was not quite the case.	可是，这些宣传口号言过其实了。


The main thing that anyone accomplished by turning off the lights at nighttime for an hour was to make it harder to see.	晚上关灯一小时，你所达到的全部效果，只是让你自己看不见而已。


The environmental impact was negligible.	其对环境的影响微小到可以忽略不计。


Indeed, even if everyone in the world had participated the requisite hour, the result would have been the equivalent of turning off China’s carbon emissions for roughly 45 seconds.	老实说，即便全世界所有人都参与这个活动，所达到的效果只相当于抵消中国在45秒钟里排放的二氧化碳。


Of course, this wildly optimistic calculation assumes that nobody used more power afterwards.	而且，上述估计还是建立在及其乐观的假设之上的，就是假设人们在参与活动之后不会增加能源使用量。


Recent research by two Canadian psychologists found that people who spent money on green products were, immediately afterwards, less likely to be generous and more likely to steal than those who bought non-green stuff.	两位加拿大心理学家最近的研究发现，消费者在购买绿色产品后，其做出慷慨行为的几率会立即下降，偷东西的几率反倒会上升。


Apparently doing something virtuous – like turning off the lights– makes us feel entitled to act badly afterwards.	显然，做好事（比如关灯一小时）会让我们下意识觉得自己获得了做点小坏事的权利。


The Earth Hour organizers acknowledged the symbolic nature of the exercise.	“地球一小时”的组织者承认，这个活动具有明显的象征性意义。


Turning off the lights is just a “call to action,” they noted.	他们说，关灯行为只是“唤起行动”的一个手段。


As WWF Director-General James Leape explained, it provides “a global platform for millions of people to voice their concern about the devastating effects of climate change.”	WWF全球总干事詹姆斯·李普（James Leape）解释说，它提供了一个“全球平台，使亿万人可以表达他们对气候变化的灾难性后果的担忧之情。


Added another WWF official, “It’s saying to our politicians, you can’t give up on climate change.”	”WWF的另一位官员补充说：“这是在向各国政治家表明，他们无权放弃应对气候变化的努力。 ”


All well and good.	这都很好。


But according to Andy Ridley, Earth Hour actually has a more specific agenda than that.	但是根据安迪·瑞德利（Andy Ridley）的说法，“地球一小时”实际上还有一个更具体的目标。


In addition to being the guy who first came up with the idea for the event over drinks with friends in a Sydney pub several years ago, Ridley is also the executive director of Earth Hour Global, so he presumably speaks with some authority on the subject.	几年以前，安迪在悉尼一个小酒馆跟朋友喝酒时想到了“地球一小时”这个点子，此外，他还是“地球一小时全球组织”的执行总干事，所以他的话大概有点权威性吧。


“What we’re still looking for in this coming year,” he told the Associated Press last week, “is a global deal that encourages all countries to lower their emissions.”	上周，他对美联社说：“今年我的仍在追求的目标是，达成一个全球协定，鼓励所有国家减少碳排放。 ”


Therein lies the big problem with Earth Hour.	“地球一小时”的致命伤恰恰就在这里。


As much as we would like to believe otherwise, the fact is that carbon emissions won’t be lowered by a deal.	尽管我们不愿承认，可事实是，任何国际协定都无法实现减排。


If that were politically possible, it would have been done a long time ago – if not at the 1992 “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro, then in Kyoto 12 years later; and if not in Kyoto, then in Copenhagen last December.	如果那种办法在政治上行得通，好久以前早就应该搞定了，先是1992年里约热内卢的“地球峰会”，到12年后的京都，再到去年12月的哥本哈根。


But it wasn’t.	可实际上根本搞不定。


Indeed, after nearly two decades of trying, the best climate deal that countries have been able to agree on is one that imposes no real obligations, sets no binding emissions targets, and requires no specific actions by anyone.	说真的，辛辛��苦谈了将近20年，各国能够达成一致的气候协议，至多不过是不设实际义务、不设量化目标甚至不对任何具体国家提出任何具体要求的协议。


Surely, there is a lesson here.	这其中肯定有什么教训值得吸取。


Alas, the organizers of Earth Hour prefer to ignore this inconvenient reality.	可惜，“地球一小时”的组织者选择无视这个无法回避的事实。


But there is no getting around it.	但是这个事实是绕不过去的。


If we are serious about wanting to solve global warming, we need to take action that actually does good – as opposed to wasting valuable resources on empty agreements and moral posturing that merely make us feel good.	如果我们当真想要解决全球变暖问题，我们需要采取真正有用的行动，而不是在一纸空文上浪费宝贵资源，或者搞一些只是让我们感觉良好的作秀而已。


Switching off our lights and promising to cut carbon emissions may make us feel momentarily virtuous, but that’s all it does.	关灯和承诺减排一样，能让我们得到片刻的道德自慰，但也仅止于此了。


A meaningful solution to global warming needs to focus on clean-energy research and development, instead of fixating on empty promises of reductions in carbon emissions.	要解决全球变暖问题，真正有意义的出路在于大力开展清洁能源的研发，而不是揪住减排的空头承诺不放。


For just 0.2% of global GDP, or $100 billion a year, we could bring about the game-changing technological breakthroughs that will be required to make green energy cheap enough to fuel a carbon-free future.	只要每年投入1000亿美元，也就是全球GDP的0. 2%，我们就能取得改变全局的技术突破，让绿色能源变得足够便宜，以驱动一个低碳的未来。


So let’s stop stumbling around in the dark and do something meaningful for a brighter future.	所以，让我们别再黑暗里瞎撞了，为一个光明的未来做点有意义的事情吧。


From Poverty to Empowerment	从贫困到赋权


MUMBAI – As India gears up for its general election next month, it has some cause to celebrate: extreme poverty is finally in retreat.	孟买—在即将迎来下个月的大选之际，印度颇有些值得庆贺的东西：极端贫困终于开始减少了。


In 2012 – two decades after the government launched a series of economic reforms aimed at opening up the economy – the official poverty rate had reached 22%, less than half the rate in 1994.	2012年——在政府实施了一系列旨在开放经济的经济改革二十年后——官方贫困率降至22%，比1994年的水平下降了一大半。


But it is time for India to raise its aspirations.	但印度应该提高期望。


Escaping abject destitution, though an important milestone, is not the same as achieving a decent standard of living and sense of economic security.	摆脱赤贫虽然是重要的离成本，但决不可与实现体面生活水平、感到经济安全同日而语。


To that end, there is still much to be done.	在这方面，印度还有很多事情要做。


Indeed, the extent of the task is reflected in a new McKinsey Global Institute report, “From Poverty to Empowerment,” which uses an innovative analytical framework, the “empowerment line,” to estimate the cost to the average citizen of fulfilling eight basic needs: food, energy, housing, potable water, sanitation, health care, education, and social security.	事实上，这项任务之艰巨从麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）的新报告《从贫困到赋权》（“From Poverty to Empowerment”）便可一窥端倪。 该报告使用了一个创新性分析框架——“赋权线”来估算普通公民实现八大基本需要的成本。


According to this metric, 56% of Indians in 2012 “lacked the means to meet essential needs.”	这八大基本需要是食物、能源、住房、饮用水、卫生、医疗、教育和社会保障。 根据这一框架，2012年有56%的印度人“缺少获得基本需要的途径”。


Remarkably, this number is more than 2.5 times larger than the number of people still living below the poverty line in India.	值得注意的是，这一数字比仍生活在印度贫困线以下的人的数字高2. 5倍。


Even more striking is that the “empowerment gap” – that is, the additional consumption required to bring these 680 million people to the empowerment line – is seven times larger than the cost of eliminating extreme poverty.	更令人惊讶的是“赋权缺口”——即让这6. 8亿人达到赋权线所需要的消费增加量——比消除极端贫困的成本大七倍。


Furthermore, while the empowerment line is a measure of individual consumption, a household’s ability or willingness to spend is not sufficient to guarantee a decent life.	此外，尽管赋权线是个人消费的指标，但家庭的支出能力和意愿并不能保证体面生活。


People also need access to community-level infrastructure like health clinics, schools, power grids, and sanitation systems.	人们还需要获得社区层面的基础设施，如卫生所、学校、电网和卫生设施。


But the average Indian household lacks access to 46% of basic services, with the severity of the gaps varying widely across districts.	但普通印度家庭无法获得46%的基本服务，地区之间的差距非常大。


What can India’s government do to provide its citizens with the dignity, comfort, and security that they deserve?	印度政府可以如何为印度人民提供他们应得的尊严、舒适和安全？


Given that roughly half of current public spending on social programs fails to deliver better outcomes for the poor, simply directing more funds through existing channels is unlikely to have much of an impact.	目前，大约一半的社会保障计划公共支出无法为穷人带来更好的结果，因此给现有渠道投入更多的钱不可能带来巨大变化。


Instead, policymakers should focus on supporting employment and productivity gains – historically the most potent weapons against poverty.	相反，决策者应该专注于支持就业和生产率增长——从历史看，这是消灭贫困的最有力武器。


Of course, this will not be easy.	当然，这决非轻而易举的任务。


India’s economy has slowed in recent years.	印度经济在近几年中有所放缓。


If economic growth remains on its current trajectory, with no major reforms, more than one-third of the population will remain below the empowerment line in 2022, with 12% still trapped in extreme poverty.	如果经济增长以当前轨迹运行，并且不进行重大改革，那么2022年仍将有三分之二以上的印度人口生活在赋权线以下，12%的人口仍生活在极端贫困中。


To avoid such an outcome, India’s government should pursue a set of bold reforms that boost growth by encouraging businesses to invest, scale up, and hire.	��了避免这一结果，印度政府应该追求一系列大胆改革，通过鼓励企业投资、扩容和雇工提振增长。


The reform agenda should be based on four key priorities:	改革日程应该基于四大关键要务：


·         The addition of 115 million non-agricultural jobs over the next decade to absorb the growing pool of workers and accelerate the shift toward more modern industries.	未来十年增加1. 15亿个非农就业岗位以吸收工人增长、加速向现代工业的转型。


·         A doubling of agricultural productivity growth, in order to raise India’s farm yields to the levels achieved in other emerging Asian countries.	农业生产率翻番，从而提高印度农场产量，达到其他新兴亚洲国家的水平。


·         A doubling of real (inflation-adjusted) public spending on social services over ten years, with much of the increase allocated to fill gaps in health care, the provision of clean drinking water, and sanitation.	未来十年实际（经通胀调整的）社会服务项目公共支出翻番，其中增量应主要用于填补医疗、清洁饮用水和卫生设施的缺口。


·         An overhaul of social-service delivery.	提高社会服务触及面。


With the right set of measures, more than half a billion people could cross the threshold of consumption required for an economically empowered life, and Indians could gain access to more than 80% of the basic services they need by 2022.	如能采取正确的措施组合，印度十亿人口的一大半能够跨越买入经济赋权生活的消费门槛，2022年印度人将能够获得80%的基本服务需要。


Jobs and productivity growth could contribute 75% of the potential gains, while increased public spending alone, without measures to improve its effectiveness, would contribute less than 10%.	就业和生产率增长将贡献75%的潜在成果，而光是公共支出增长（而没有改善效率的措施）只能贡献不到10%。


To realize this potential, policymakers should eliminate arcane regulations that handcuff businesses; accelerate infrastructure projects; make the labor market more flexible; remove market distortions; and expand vocational training for the poor and uneducated.	为了实现这一潜力，决策者应该取消桎梏企业的令人难以捉摸的监管、加速基础设施建设、增加劳动力市场灵活性、消除市场扭曲，并扩大穷人和教育程度低下人群的职业培训。


At the same time, they should work to place the efficiency of all public spending on par with that in India’s best-performing states.	与此同时，决策者还应该致力于让所有公共支出项目的效率都能与印度表现最出色的邦看齐。


All of this demands a strong commitment to better governance and a relentless focus on outcomes.	所有这些需要对改善治理的更坚定的承诺和坚持以结果为导向。


Common-sense strategies – such as improving coordination among the plethora of ministries and departments that comprise the bureaucracy, and establishing accountable and empowered agencies to deliver results in high-priority areas – could go a long way toward meeting this demand.	常识战略——如改善官僚体系叠床架屋的部门和机构之间的合作、建立问责和授权机构负责最重要领域等——可以极大地促进满足这一需要。


Moreover, technology could be used to streamline government services and render them more transparent.	此外，可以利用技术让政府服务更加合理、更加透明。


Finally, closer engagement with private- and social-sector actors and local communities could help to increase efficiency, while reducing the burden on the public sector.	最后，与私人和社会部门以及地方社区展开更紧密的合作有助于增进效率，同时也减轻了公共部门的负担。


India’s young and dynamic population is demanding a better quality of life.	印度充满活力的年轻人口要求更好的生活质量。


With strong and sustained political will and results-oriented policies, India’s government can deliver it.	在强大且持续的政治意愿和结果导向型政策的推动下，印度政府能够满足这一要求。


Fighting Climate Change Region by Region	从逐个地区做起抵抗气候变化


LONDON – A new global agreement to address climate change is taking shape, with the United States joining the European Union in formally submitting its plan to cut greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).	伦敦—新的解决气候变化的全球协议正在形成中，美国和欧盟正式联手将削减温室气体排放的计划递交给联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）。


The US has sent a strong signal by being one of the first to offer this commitment to concrete climate action.	美国成为首批承诺实质性气候行动的国家之一，这释放出强烈的信号。


In the days ahead, many other countries, including China and India, are expected to add their plans to the mix.	不久后，包括中国和印度在内的多个国家预计也将递交各自的计划。


Together, these plans (known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” or “INDCs”) will represent a collective global effort to invest in a prosperous, low-carbon future.	这些计划（称为“国家意向贡献”，简称INDC）合起来就是投资于繁荣的低碳未来的全球集体努力。


And today, we, as co-chairs of The Climate Group’s States & Regions Alliance, call on national government leaders to join that effort with ambitious climate plans.	今天，作为气候集团州和地区联盟（Climate Group’s States & Regions Alliance）联合主席，我们呼吁国家政府领导人带着宏伟的气候计划加入其中。


We make this call to our national leaders because we believe it is right, and because we know it is possible.	我们想我们的国家领导人做出这一呼吁，因为我们相信这是正确的，并且我们知道这是可行的。


We believe it is right because, as the leaders of large state and regional governments, responsible for implementing our own climate plans, we have learned that addressing climate change is both a duty and an opportunity.	我们之所以相信这是正确的，是因为，作为大州和地区政府领导人，我们背负着实施我们自身气候变化的责任，从中我们认识到解决气候变化既是责任，也是机会。


It is a duty, because climate change now affects our everyday lives.	说它是责任，因为气候变化现在已影响到我们的日常生活。


And it is an opportunity, because promoting sustainable development creates new clean-technology jobs and more diversified, greener, and resilient economies.	说它是机会，因为推进可持续发展创造出清洁能源岗位���更多元化、更绿色、恢复力更强的经济。


We know it is possible because we are doing it.	我们之所以知道这是可行的，是因为我们正在这样做。


Each of our regions has reduced GHG emissions to 1990 levels or below; and, since we began, our economies have more than doubled in size.	我们所在的地区都已将温室气体排放降低到1990年水平或以下； 而自我们开始这样做以来，我们的经济规模扩大了一倍有余。


This has been achieved partly through the innovative policies adopted by our respective governments.	这部分是通过我们各自的政府采取创新政策做到的。


A carbon market covering 85% of GHG emissions is at the center of the Québec government’s strategy for fighting climate change.	覆盖85%温室气体排放量的碳排市场是魁北克政府抵抗气候变化战略的核心。


On January 1, 2014, Québec linked its carbon market with California’s, creating the largest regional carbon market in North America.	2014年1月1日，魁北克将其碳排市场与加利福尼亚州碳排市场联合起来，形成了北美最大的地区碳排市场。


All the revenues generated by the sale of Québec emission units go into the province’s Green Fund, and are reinvested in initiatives aimed at further reducing GHG emissions and helping Québec’s residents adapt to the effects of climate change.	魁北克排放单位出售所得的全部收入都将注入魁北克省绿色基金，并重新投资于旨在进一步降低温室气体排放、帮助魁北克居民适应气候变化影响的项目。


Québec will invest more than $3.3 billion toward this goal by 2020, contributing to the growth of its economy.	到2020年，魁北克将为此目标投入超过33亿美元，为其经济增长做出贡献。


The Basque Country established a program called Local Agenda 21, designed to support the creation of local sustainability plans across the region.	巴斯克地区建立了一个称为“21号地方议程”（Local Agenda 21）的项目，该项目旨在支持整个地区内的本地可持续性计划。


As a result of the program, almost all Basque municipalities have adopted such plans, consisting of more than 25,000 projects in areas such as mobility, waste management, and economic development.	拜该项目所赐，几乎所有巴斯克城市都出台了可持续性计划，在移动、废物管理和经济发展等领域共出现了25,000多项工程。


These local plans are now driving sustainable development in the region, with knowledge sharing among municipalities laying the foundation for further progress.	如今，这些地方计划推动了整个地区的可持续发展，城市之间的知识共享构成了未来进步的基础。


South Australia, meanwhile, has developed the most supportive regulatory framework for renewable energy investment in Australia, enabling an increase in renewables’ share in power generation from virtually zero in 2003 to almost 40% today.	与此同时，南澳大利亚制定了澳大利亚最支持可再生能源投资的监管框架，该地区可再生能源发电比例从2003年的接近于零增加到今天的近40%。


This shift is putting downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices and offsetting the cost of South Australia’s Renewable Energy Target in the short term, all to the benefit of consumers.	这一转变压低了批发电价，也弥补了南澳大利亚可再生能源目标的短期成本，消费者深受其惠。


This also positions South Australia as a leader in new energy industries.	这一转变还使南澳大利亚成为新能源行业的领导者。


The state now accounts for more than 40% of the country’s operating capacity for wind-generated power, and has one of the world’s highest penetration rates for solar (one in four households has a photovoltaic system).	如今该州贡献了全国风电产能40%多，并拥有全球最高的太阳能渗透率之一（四分之一的家庭拥有光伏系统）。


Now we are looking to the future.	现在，我们着眼于未来。


We have taken the lead, working to cut emissions by 20% by 2020 in the Basque Country and Québec, and by 60% by 2050 in South Australia – but we need partners at the national level.	我们已经成为潮流引领者，巴斯克地区和魁北克计划在2020年将排放量减少20%，南澳大利亚计划在2050年减少60%——但我们需要国家层面的合作。


In our regions, businesses need consistent, long-term policy signals in order to make further investments toward a low-carbon economy.	在我们的地区中，企业需要持续、长期的政策信号以便它们做出增加低碳经济投资的决策。


Working together, subnational and national governments can achieve much more than when working apart.	次国家级和国家级政府如能精诚合作，将能够实现比单枪匹马大得多的成就。


So, as we prepare for the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in December, we encourage our national leaders not to waver.	因此，在准备12月巴黎联合国气候变化会议之际，我们鼓励我们的国家领导人不要动摇。


On the contrary, they should join us at the forefront of the fight against climate change by putting forward ambitious national plans that leverage the leadership of subnational governments to achieve the needed GHG emissions reductions.	相反，他们应该加入我们，站在第一线与气候变化斗争，提出前瞻性的宏大国家目标，利用次国家政府领导力杠杆实现必要的温室气体减排目标。


Subsidies that Save	可以省钱的补贴


Was France’s recent wave of protests against an amendment that would have increased employers’ freedom to fire young workers a blessing in disguise?	法国最近反对有可能增加雇主解雇年轻工人自由修正案的抗议浪潮是否是塞翁失马，焉知非福呢？


To defuse the protests, President Jacques Chirac was forced to withdraw the provision, and instead has proposed hiring subsidies as a way to reduce youth joblessness.	希拉克总统为了平息抗议不得不撤回那一条款，而提议用雇佣补贴来降低年轻人的失业问题。


A related proposal for targeted wage subsidies is being floated in Germany.	德国正在实行相关的有针对性的工资补贴。


Advocates of greater labor-market flexibility insist that paying employers to hire young people is the wrong approach.	主张更大劳动力市场灵活性的人们坚持说，付钱给雇主们来雇佣年轻人不得其法。


Allow employers to fire workers more easily, they argue, and employers will hire them more readily.	他们认为，如果允许雇主们更为容易地解雇工人，那么他们就会更愿意雇佣员工。


The limitation of this approach, however, is that a free market for labor will neither eradicate unemployment nor transform marginal, low-end workers into high-productivity, high-wage employees.	但是，这一方法的局限性是，自由的劳动力市场既不会消除失业，也不会把处于边缘的低端工人们转化为具有高生产力和高工资的雇员。


If the proposed subsidies in France and Germany have a defect, it is not that they are unnecessary, but that they do not go far enough.	如果法德两国拟议中的补贴存在缺点的话，那就是他们并非没有必要，而是力度不够。


In the advanced economies of the West, many people in all age groups are effectively left out of formal employment.	在西方先进经济体中，所有年龄段的许多人实际上都被排除在正式工作之外。


In the United States, the pay of less qualified workers is so meager that, if their situation is not dire, they find it emotionally difficult to keep a job for long, or they become too demoralized or distracted to be adequate employees, or minimum-wage laws make them unaffordable to law-abiding employers.	在美国，低技能工人的工资实在过低，以至于如果他们的情况不是太过悲惨的话，他们就觉得干一份工作时间太长是一件情感上很困难的事情，或者他们变得意志消沉、心猿意马而无法成为称职的雇员，或者最低工资法律使得遵纪守法的雇主们无法支付得起给他们工作。


In Europe, they are excluded from employment by labor agreements and in some cases by minimum-wage laws.	在欧洲，劳工协议以及某些情况下的最低工资法律将这些人排斥在就业大门之外。


In both cases, these workers lose the opportunity for engagement and personal development that most legitimate jobs provide.	在这两种情况下，这些工人失去了大多数正规工作所提供的参与和个人发展的机会。


This deprivation in turn generates high social costs, including crime, violence, and dependency.	这些人的机会被剥夺反过来又造成社会成本居高不下，包括犯罪、暴力以及依赖性。


The latter pathologies then become a weapon in the populist attack on free enterprise, which Western countries require for economic dynamism – and thus prosperity.	后者的病状随后成为民粹主义攻击自由企业制度的武器，而西方国家的经济活力和繁荣则要求实行这一制度。


So those who are included and benefit by free enterprise, yet are burdened by the social costs of exclusion, should all be willing to pay something to remedy these conditions.	因此，包容在自由企业之中并且由此获益、而肩负排斥社会成本的人们应当愿意付钱来补救这一局面。


The best remedy is a subsidy for low-wage employment, paid to employers for every full-time low-wage worker they hire and calibrated to the employee’s wage cost to the firm.	最佳的补救措施就是为低工资就业提供补贴给雇佣全职低工资工人的雇主，并就该雇员的公司工资成本加以调整。


The higher the wage cost, the lower the subsidy, until it has tapered off to zero.	工资成本越高补贴越低，直到为零。


With such wage subsidies, competitive forces would cause employers to hire more workers, and the resulting fall in unemployment would cause most of the subsidy to be paid out as direct or indirect labor compensation.	有了这样的工资补贴，竞争性力量将会让雇主们雇佣更多的工人，而随之而来的失业率降低将会让大多数补贴以直接或间接的劳动力补偿形式支付。


People could benefit from the subsidy only by engaging in productive work – that is, a job that employers deem worth paying something for.	人们只有从事富有成效的工作，也就是那些让雇员们认为值得为此付出劳动的工作才能从补贴中获得收益。


Ideally, the subsidies will go for employing workers of all ages.	在理想的情况下，补贴将用于雇用所有年龄组的工人。


However, it is understandable that plans under current discussion envision focusing first on the youngest and oldest workers.	但是，目前讨论的计划首先着眼于年轻最轻以及年龄最大的工人们是可以理解的。


Some people still think of wage subsidies as a welfare hand-out.	某些人仍然认为工资补贴是一种福利。


But these subsidies are very different from social assistance and social insurance programs.	但是，这些补贴同社会援助和社会保险项目迥然不同。


Although such programs have been substantial in Europe and the US, the working poor remain as marginalized as ever.	尽管这些项目在欧洲和美国根深蒂固，但是，工薪阶层穷人仍然和以前一样处于边缘地带。


Indeed, social spending has worsened the problem, because it reduces work incentives and thus creates a culture of dependency and alienation from the commercial economy, undermining labor force participation, employability, and employee loyalty.	实际上，社会开支由于降低工作激励、造成依赖性文化以及游离于商业经济之外以及破坏劳动力参与、就业能力以及雇员的忠诚度而将问题恶化。


What is needed is higher employment and pay through higher demand for the least productive workers.	当务之急是通过提高最低技能工人的需求而加大就业和增加工资。


Some would count on the free market to solve the problem with time.	某些人指望自由市场能够随着时间的推移而解决问题。


But market forces alone are unlikely to solve the unprecedented levels of labor-market exclusion that developed from the mid-1970’s to the early 1990’s.	但是，仅仅是市场力量不大可能解决自二十世纪七十年代中期到九十年代早期以来形成的前所未有的劳动力市场排斥水平。


The prevailing belief in a reliable tendency to return to some normal degree of inclusion has little ground to stand on.	返回某种正常程度包容的可靠趋势，众人对此笃信不疑，但是，却并不牢靠。


True, most recessions are reversed, just as most booms end.	的确，大多数衰退得到逆转，正如大多数繁荣结束一样。


Nevertheless, what is “normal” is itself shifting all the time.	但是，“正常”本身的含义就是随时代的不同而变化。


Many argue that subsidies of any kind should never be countenanced, in part because they are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to abolish, even if they are no longer needed.	许多人主张，任何形式的补贴都不应当予以支持，部分原因是即使不再需要它们，取消这些补贴即使不是不可能的话，也是极为困难的事情。


According to this view, the total payment to a factor of production should not exceed its marginal productivity, so desirable outcomes should be promoted through tax incentives.	根据这一观点，支付给某一生产力要素的总体工资不应当超过其边际生产率，这样，应当通过税收激励来推动所要达到的目标。


But, as early twentieth-century theorists pointed out, collaboration and exchange within a nation’s diverse labor force increase everyone’s productivity.	但是，正如二十世纪早期理论学家们所指出的那样，某一国家多样化的劳动力合作和交流提高每个人的生产效率。


There is a mutual gain from economic cooperation in addition to what each type of talent could produce independently – an insight later built on by the philosopher John Rawls.	除了单个人才独立产出的东西之外，经济合作可以让人们互惠互利。 哲学家约翰·罗尔斯后来正是在这一洞察的基础上有所建树。


A society can let the free market distribute this gain, or it can intervene to direct it to the least advantaged, so that some get more than their marginal product, others less.	社会可以让自由市场分配这一成果，或者实施干预来把成果转向最为弱势的群体，这样，某���人得到的要比他们的边际产品要多，而另一些人则要少。


Since the least skilled workers face morale problems that lower their wages and erode their employability, it makes sense to deliver the mutual gain that is redistributed to them through subsidies that encourage greater self-support and employment.	由于最为没有技能的工人面临降低其工资以及侵蚀其就业能力的道德问题，因此，通过鼓励更大程度的自力更生以及就业补贴将互惠互利重新分配给他们是不无道理的。


And, unlike tax incentives, wage subsidies target only employment of low-wage workers.	而且，与税收激励所不同的是，工资补贴仅仅针对低工资工人的就业。


Both Europe and the US must do more to promote low-wage workers’ inclusion.	欧洲和美国都必须在促进低工资工人的包容上更进一步。


A good economy not only sustains growing output and national income; it also ensures its participants’ capacity for self-sufficiency and ability to realize their potential.	良好的经济不仅仅维持不断增长的产量和国民收入，还确保其参与者自给自足以及实现其潜能的能力。


A substantial low-wage employment subsidy is a fair and efficient way to achieve this important goal.	可持续的低工资就业补贴是实现这一重要目标的公平而又高效的途径。


The Evolution of Devolution	分权的演进


CAMBRIDGE – The Scots have spoken.	剑桥—苏格兰人说话了。


A solid majority voted against independence in their historic referendum last month.	稳健多数在上个月的历史性公投中反对独立。


But the debate left no question that an even larger majority favors the further devolution of economic, social, and political power in Britain.	但这场争论毫无疑问地表明，更大多数苏格兰人支持从英国手中获得更多的经济、社会和政治权力。


And regional movements elsewhere in Europe – and around the world – are making similar demands.	而欧洲乃至全球其他部分的地区运动也提出了类似的要求。


The logic of devolution is clear.	分权的逻辑十分清楚。


Scotland, for example, may not want a bigger or smaller government than it has now, but it wants a different mix of taxes and spending.	比如，苏格兰或许并不希望政府较现在有所扩大或缩小，但它希望能有不同的税收和支出组合。


It wants more local control.	它希望得到更多的地方控制。


The Scotland Act of 2012, scheduled to come into effect in 2016, provides a down payment on this desired autonomy.	计划于2016年生效的2012年苏格兰法（Scotland Act of 2012）为这一渴望已久的自治权提供了第一批授权。


Prime Minister David Cameron, knowing which way the wind is blowing, has promised more.	英国首相卡梅伦知道深知风向如何，也承诺会给苏格兰更大的权力。


But if devolution is good for Scotland, then why not for Wales and Northern Ireland?	但如果分权对苏格兰是有利的，那么对威尔士和北爱尔兰又何尝不是如此呢？


Why not also for England, for that matter?	为何英格兰人也不因此提出类似的要求？


An equilibrium in which Scots vote on English laws but the English have no vote on Scottish laws will not remain an equilibrium for long.	苏格兰人可以投票表决英格兰法律，而英格兰人不可以投票表决苏格兰法律，这样的平衡无法长久维持。


And why stop there?	此外，又为何要到此为止？


Why not devolution for Yorkshire, a region with a population equal to Scotland’s and an active separatist movement, and for other English regions?	约克夏（Yorkshire，该地区人口与苏格兰相当，也存在活跃的分裂主义运动）和英格兰其他地区为何得不到分权？


A not-so-United Kingdom of regions need not be a disaster.	不那么联合的联合王国未必是一场灾难。


The United States is able to function, after a fashion, as a union of 50 states of very different economic size and political complexion.	美国就是由经济规模和政治状况截然不同的50个州组成的联盟，也能够差强人意的运行。


Other federal states like Canada and Australia may be even better role models.	加拿大和澳大利亚等其他联邦制国家或许是更好的榜样。


But it is important to draw the right lessons from the experience of these other states.	但从这些“其他国家”中汲取正确的教训十分重要。


For starters, the central or federal government should retain significant fiscal powers.	首先，中央或联邦政府应该保留相当大的财政权力。


It must be responsible not just for defense and foreign policy, but also for key economic policies.	它不但要负责国防和外交政策，还必须负责关键经济政策。


And it must have the resources to implement those policies.	它也必须拥有实时这些政策的资源。


Consider, for example, policy toward the banking system.	比如，以银行系统政策为例。


With the defeat of the Scottish referendum, it is clear that the UK will still have a single integrated banking and financial system for the foreseeable future.	苏格兰公投失败后，很显然在可预见的未来英国仍将拥有单一的统一银行和金融系统。


In the US, which similarly has an integrated banking system, the federal government steps in when banks in a state are in serious trouble.	美国也具有类似的统一英航系统，联邦政府会在某个州的银行陷入严重麻烦时出手干预。


Americans have learned the hard way that bad financial events, even when initially localized, can quickly infect the entire system.	美国人从惨痛的教训中了解到，坏的金融事件，即使一开始只是地方性事件，也能迅速蔓延到整个系统。


Specifically, the federal government steps in through the agency of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which has a credit line with the US Treasury.	具体而言，联邦政府通过联邦存款保险公司（Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation）这个机构进行干预。


With the federal government raising roughly two-thirds of all tax revenues, there is no question about the Treasury’s ability to provide the financial backstop needed to prevent contagion.	联邦存款保险公司可以从美国财政部获得资金。 联邦政府独占总税收收入的约三分之二，毫无疑问财政部有能力提供防止传染所需要的金融支持。


This implies that transferring the majority of revenue-raising capacity to the regions would be a mistake for the UK, because doing so would give the country a banking union without a fiscal backstop.	这意味着将大部分收入能力转交给地方将是英国的一个大错，因为这样做将使英国存在一个没有财政支持的银行联盟。


And that, revealingly, is precisely what the eurozone has.	而这正是欧元区的情形。


That is not somewhere the UK should want to go.	这绝非英国应该追求的方向。


In the US, control over social policy is delegated to the states, allowing local legislatures to tailor programs to local tastes and use resources efficiently.	在美国，对社会政策的控制下放给了各州，地方立法可以根据本地情况量体裁衣，高效地使用资源。


But those local policies are still subject to federal oversight.	但这些地方政策仍要受到联邦监督的制约。


The federal government steps in – and has the capacity to do so – when, for example, civil liberties are being violated.	联邦政府会在——也有能力在——（比如）公民自由被侵犯时介入干预。


And yet there also is the danger that federal authorities will assign responsibilities to state and local governments but not give them the resources they need to carry them out.	但这里也有一个风险，即联邦当局将责任推给州和地方政府，却不给它们承担责任所需要的资源。


And even where revenues are otherwise adequate, states have an incentive to spend more on social programs and, pointing to the resulting deficits, ask for additional federal transfers.	而即使收入不太充裕的地区，州也有激励将更多支出用于社会项目，然后指着由此产生的赤字要求联邦增加转移支付。


To counter this deficit bias, federations in which states do much of the spending and the central government raises most of the taxes typically impose balanced-budget rules on subnational governments.	为了解决这一赤字偏失，州占支出大头、中央政府占税收大头的联邦往往对次国家级政府采取平衡预算规则。


Forty-nine of the 50 US states, for example, have such rules in one form or another.	比如，在美国的50个州中，有四十九个存在各种类型的这一规则。


The Scotland Act of 2012 caps the region’s deficit at 10% of its budget and limits how much the Scottish government can borrow.	2012年苏格兰法将地区预算上限定在预算的10%，并限制了苏格兰政府可以借贷的上限。


These issues are now likely to be reopened with further devolution.	如今，这一问题可能因为进一步分权而重新开启。


But reconsidering debt and deficit limits on regional governments is not the same thing as abandoning them.	但考虑地区政府的债务和赤字上限和取消不是一回事。


The experience of other federations shows that the latter would be a mistake.	其他联邦的经验表明后者将是一个错误。


At the same time, rigid rules limiting deficit spending by regional governments could place the UK in the same fiscal straitjacket as the eurozone, where member states are prevented from borrowing in recessions.	与此同时，限制地区政府赤字支出的僵化规则可能给英国带来与欧元区一样的约束——欧元区成员国被阻止在衰退时借贷。


Fiscal policy would then become dangerously procyclical, aggravating business fluctuations.	因此，财政政策可能染上亲周期特点，放大商业波动，这是十分危险的。


Simply put, if fiscal policy is to play a stabilizing role in the UK economy, it will have to be conducted at the federal or central level.	简言之，如果财政政策要对英国经济起稳定作用，就必须在联邦或中央层面实施。


The central government and its revenue-raising capacity cannot be allowed to wither away.	中央政府及其收入能力绝不容受到影响。


Devolution is coming, and its appeal is undeniable.	分权即将到来，其吸引力是不可否认的。


But it is important to know where devolution ends and dysfunction begins.	但很重要的一点是知道何种程度的分权会导致功能丧失。


Sudan and Africa’s Future	苏丹和非洲的未来


JOHANNESBURG – It has been said, correctly, that Sudan is a microcosm of Africa.	发自约翰内斯堡——有人说苏丹就是整个非洲的缩影。


For this reason, the entire continent will follow events in Sudan over the next few months with the greatest interest.	因此整个大陆都将在未来几个月内聚精会神地注视着苏丹的一举一动。


On January 9, 2011, the people of South Sudan will vote in a referendum to decide whether they will remain part of a united Sudan or form a new independent state.	苏丹南部民众将在2011年9月11日举行公投，决定究竟是继续作为苏丹的一部分，还是成立一个新的独立国家。


If they choose the latter option, the new state will come into being on July 9, 2011.	如果他们选择后者的话，这个新国家将在同年7月9日正式成立。


During the same period, even as Sudan is addressing the issue of its North-South relations, it will also have to arrive at a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in Darfur.	而当苏丹忙于处理其南北部关系之际，它也必须在达尔富尔问题上达成一个综合性协定。


During its nearly 55 years of independence, Sudan has experienced a succession of violent conflicts, in the South, the West (Darfur), and the East.	在独立后的近55年中，苏丹经历了一系列暴力冲突，分别发生在南部，西部（达尔富尔）和东部。


It is commonly accepted that what lay at the root of these conflicts was the failure of independent Sudan – one of Africa’s most racially, ethnically, religiously, and culturally diverse countries – to construct a polity informed by the principle and practice of unity in diversity.	大家普遍认为引发这些冲突的症结就在于独立之后的苏丹——这个非洲大陆上人种、民族，宗教和文化最为多样化的国家——无法构建一个拥有多元团结理念和实践的政体


This challenge faces almost all African countries as they seek to construct stable and peaceful societies.	这也是所有希望建立稳定和平社会的非洲国家所共同遇到的问题。


Virtually all civil wars and other violent conflicts in post-colonial Africa have occurred because of the failure to manage properly the diversity that characterizes these countries.	事实上，后殖民时代非洲所发生的所有内战和其他暴力冲突，都可以归因于这些国家对自身特有多元性的管理不善。


These conflicts have taught Africa that, in order to contain the centrifugal pressures that encourage fragmentation within our relatively new states, a conscious effort must be made to nurture and entrench national unity, which must include democratic practices.	这些冲突带给非洲的教训就是：相对于世界其他国家来说，许多非洲国家的历史还很短，根基不稳，而如果要抑制这些国家内部的分离倾向的话，就必须有意识地培养和巩固国家团结（其中必须包括民主实践）。


Conflict has also communicated the unequivocal message that unity cannot be secured and maintained by force alone.	此外这些冲突也清晰地表明，仅靠武力是维持不了团结的。


Rather, it is only by respecting our diversity – ensuring that each social group enjoys a shared sense of belonging, rather than feeling marginalized and excluded – that the state’s unity and peace can be guaranteed.	恰恰相反，国家的团结与祥和只能源自于对我们多元文化的尊重——确保每个社会团体都能拥有同样的归属感，而不是感觉被边缘化或被排斥。


Sudan has learned these lessons through harsh practical experience, including war.	苏丹人可是经历了相当苦难的实践（包括战争）才认识到这一点的。


As long ago as 1975, Gafaar al-Nimeiry, Sudan’s military head of state, stated with great prescience what Sudan and Africa needed to do to achieve peace and stability. “Unity based on diversity has become the essence and the raison d’être of the political and national entity of many an emerging African country today.	在35年前的1975年，苏丹军事领导人加法尔·尼迈里就精确地预言了苏丹乃至整个非洲要赢得和平稳定所需具备的要素：“基于多元化的团结已经成为许多新生非洲国家内部政治和国家实体的必需因素和存在理由。


We take pride in that the Sudan of the Revolution has become the exemplary essence of this new hope. The Sudan is the biggest country in Africa.	对此我们也为革命后的苏丹能成为这一新希望的优秀楷模而感到骄傲。


Its extensive territory borders (nine) African countries. Common frontiers mean common ethnic origins, common cultures, and shared ways of life and environmental conditions.	苏丹是非洲最大的国家，位处核心地带和交通要冲，与其他（九个）非洲国家共享广阔的边界，共同的边境意味着共同的种族起源、相近的文化，相似的生活方式以及环境状况。


Trouble in the Sudan would, by necessity, spill over its frontiers, and vice versa.	因此苏丹出现的任何问题也必然会扩散到国境之外，反之亦然。


A turbulent and unstable Sudan would not therefore be a catalyst of peace and stability in Africa, and vice versa.”	一个骚动不安的苏丹对非洲的和平与稳定没有好处，反之亦然”


Unfortunately, failure to implement policies based on genuine respect for this perspective plunged Sudan into its second costly North-South war, fueled the violent conflicts in Western and Eastern Sudan, and created the possibility of the South’s secession.	不幸的是，苏丹却没能将体现这一观点的政策认真地推行下去，于是整个国家便陷入了建国以来耗资第二巨大的南北战争，还分别在东部和西部地区引发了冲突，甚至导致了南部分裂的可能性。


Given this history, it is clear that the governments of Sudan and South Sudan, as well as the overwhelming majority of the Sudanese people, have had enough of war and passionately desire peace.	在这一惨痛经历之下，很显然苏丹全国和南部的政府，以及大多数苏丹人都已经能够厌倦了战争，并极度渴望和平。


The processes in which the Sudanese parties are currently engaged – the preparations for the South Sudan referendum, negotiations on post-referendum arrangements, and the search for a negotiated settlement in Darfur – are all informed by this desire for peace.	苏丹国内各派当前正在参与的进程——南部苏丹公投的准备工作，关于公投后协议方案的谈判，以及达尔富尔问题的安置方案——都是由这种对和平的渴望所驱动的。


For this reason, Africa is following Sudan’s evolution with intense interest – and is eager to see this country “at the heart and crossroads of Africa” give substance to al-Nimeiry’s vision.	这正是非洲大陆为何如此关心苏丹事态发展——也希望看到这个“位处非洲核心地带和交通要冲”的国家能最终实现尼迈里的理念。


But, regardless of the outcome of the South Sudan referendum, the impending developments in Sudan will result in important changes to the structure of the Sudanese state.	但不管南部公投最终结果如何，接下来的事件都将对苏丹的国家架构产生重大影响。


In this context, the Sudanese parties – North and South – have accepted the important principle of establishing “two viable states” if the South secedes.	在这一大背景下，苏丹南北两派都同意如果南部最终脱离独立的话，就遵照建立“两个独立国家”的重要理念。


As happens during periods of major and rapid change, the country will experience social tension, uncertainty, and unease.	在这个大幅急剧变化的时期，苏丹社会将面临一系列紧张，不确定和忧虑的心理过程。


Africa is keen that the Sudanese leadership cooperate effectively to manage this delicate situation, in the interest of the continent as a whole.	非洲各国希望苏丹领导人能通力合作，平安度过这个微妙脆弱的时期，须知这也关乎整个非洲大陆的整体利益。


This requires that Sudan’s various leadership collectives have sufficient strength and cohesion to bring their constituencies into the settlement, and therefore that no one, from near or afar, does anything to weaken any of these collectives.	这要求苏丹各派领导集体能发挥足够的能量和凝聚力去说服他的支持者们接受最终协议，同时也不能有人（无论远近）去做任何有损于这些集体的行为。


It is in Africa’s interest to see Sudan’s people living together in peace and cooperating with one another for their mutual benefit – fully respecting one another’s diverse but not mutually exclusive interests, whether they live in one country or two.	不管苏丹最终是分裂还是维持原状，只要那里的人民能够和平共处，共同为互惠互利而合作无间——完全尊重对方的多元属性，但却不因此而互相隐瞒利益。


A Sudan that truly embodied “the exemplary essence” of respect for diversity of which al-Nimeiry spoke would serve as a catalyst for peace and stability on our continent.	如果能做到这点，一个真正体现了尼迈里口中充分尊重多元属性的“优秀本质”的苏丹将成为整个大陆实现和平与稳定的催化剂。


It is to be hoped that the sustained and enormous international focus on Sudan has as its objective providing the necessary support to the Sudanese people to help them achieve this goal, including building two viable states, as may be necessary.	我们希望国际社会对苏丹的持续大范围关注能为苏丹人民提供必要的支持，让他们可以实现上述目标，包括再有必要的情况下建立两个能独立运作的国家。


Sudan between Peril and Hope	徘徊在危险和希望之间的苏丹


ALGIERS – The future of Sudan hangs in the balance. National elections are due in April.	阿尔及尔 —— 苏丹的未来悬而未决，预定于四月举行全国大选，关乎苏丹南部未来局势的公民投票也被安排在 2011 年。


A referendum on the future status of the south of the country is supposed to follow in 2011. Both were key ingredients of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which ended 20 years of civil war between north and south.	这两次投票是《 2005 年全面和平协定》的关键要素，由此结束了南方和北方之间长达 20 年的内战。


Both polls hold real promise. But they also are in real doubt.	这两次投票既存在变数，也是真正的希望所在。


Sudan’s political leaders are backtracking on the commitments under the peace agreement.	苏丹政治领袖对和平协定中的承诺出尔反尔。


Cooperation and consensus are hard to find.	合作和共识几乎不覆存在。


The terrible tragedy of the country’s western Darfur region continues unabated.	苏丹西部达尔富尔地区的可怕悲剧仍在继续上演。


It was the support of the international community that helped bring Sudanese parties together in 2005.	是国际社会的支持促成了苏丹各党派 2005 年的合作。


Many key countries in Africa and the West guaranteed the agreement.	非洲和西方的多个重要国家为协议提供担保。


Sudan urgently needs the same efforts now.	苏丹现在迫切需要相同的努力。


With the right international support, Sudan could move decisively towards peace and democracy in the coming months.	在恰如其分国际支持下，苏丹可能在今后几个月决定性地向和平与民主迈进。


If the international community fails the challenge, conflicts and tensions that have already cost hundreds of thousands of lives will continue and worsen.	如果国际社会无法应对这次挑战，那么已经夺去了数十万人生命的冲突和矛盾一定会继续恶化。


We dare not let this happen.	我们无法承受这样的后果。


Ever since Nelson Mandela brought together a group of former global leaders to form The Elders, we, its members, have focused on Sudan’s plight.	自从纳尔逊·曼德拉号召曾经的全球领导人成立长老会后，我们这些长老会成员就一直在关注苏丹的困境。


We chose the country for our first visit as a group, and over the past two years have closely monitored the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur and other parts of the country.	我们选择苏丹作为第一次集体访问的目的地，并在过去两年中一直对达尔富尔和苏丹其他地区的人道主义灾难保持密切的关注。


During our 2007 visit, we met political and civil-society leaders from across the country, as well as representatives from United Nations agencies, the African Union, and diplomats.	2007 年访问期间，我们会见了全苏丹的民间社团领袖、联合国机构和非洲联盟代表，以及外交官。


But it was our meetings with the ordinary people of Sudan that left the deepest impression.	但给我们留下最深印象的却是与苏丹普通民众的会晤。


We heard personal stories of unimaginable heartbreak, pain, and despair.	我们听普通苏丹人讲述了超乎想像的心碎、痛苦和绝望的故事。


Violence, displacement, human-rights abuses, and poverty had clearly taken a huge toll.	暴力、流离失所、践踏人权和贫困显然已经造成了巨大的损失。


Sudan has been ravaged for decades by bitter conflicts rooted in abject poverty, struggles over resources, and ethnic and religious tensions.	几十年来，苏丹民众一直遭受着激烈冲突的蹂躏，冲突的根源是毫无希望的贫困、对资源的争夺、以及种族和宗教紧张局势。


But, despite widespread depravity and injustice, we also found a remarkable resilience and optimism.	尽管腐败和不公随处可见，但我们同样感受到惊人的乐观和适应力。


Just like people all around the world, the Sudanese are determined to build a better life for their children and grandchildren.	就像全世界人民一样，苏丹人民也决心为子女和孙辈建设更美好的生活。


They long for peace, stability, and a say in shaping their country’s future.	他们渴望和平、稳定，渴望在决定国家未来时获得发言权。


They want educational and economic opportunities to lift themselves and their families out of poverty.	他们想得到教育和经济机会，帮助自己和家人摆脱贫困。


So far, these hopes have been dashed.	但从目前情况看，他们的希望被现实击得粉碎。


This is not just a tragedy for Sudan’s long-suffering people, but is also having a damaging impact across the region and the wider world.	这不仅是苏丹苦难民众的悲剧，对于地区和国际社会所造成的影响同样是破坏性的。


After all, Sudan is not a small, insignificant country; it is the tenth largest – the biggest in Africa and in the Arab world.	毕竟苏丹不是个无足轻重的小国，这个国家排名世界第十 —— 在非洲和阿拉伯国家中排名第一。


It occupies a pivotal position on our continent, bordering Egypt to the north and Kenya to the south, as well as seven other countries.	它占据着我们这块大陆的关键位置，北部紧邻埃及，南部紧邻肯尼亚，与之接壤的还有其他 7 个国家。


Fighting has displaced two million of Sudan’s 40 million people since 2003, with large numbers forced to take refuge in neighboring countries. And refugee flows are only way Sudan’s instability has spilled across borders.	2003 年来战争已经让 4000 万苏丹人中的 200 万流离失所，大批苏丹人迫不得已到邻国避祸。 而难民问题不过是苏丹动荡跨境影响的一则实例。


We should need no reminders of the threat that failed states pose to international security.	失败国家带给国际安全的威胁根本无需赘述。


While Sudan’s people may be among the poorest in the world, their country is rich in natural wealth, including oil and precious metals.	虽然苏丹民众可能仍处在世界最贫困之列，但他们的国家却蕴藏着石油及贵金属等丰富的自然财富。


Properly developed in a stable and secure country with accountable leadership and good governance, these resources could be used to improve standards of living and tackle Sudan’s many challenges.	如果有负责任的领导人和好的政府建立起稳定安全的国家并组织开发，这些资源即���在提高生活水平，应对苏丹所面临的众多挑战方面发挥作用。


But there is little hope of this unless the people and leaders of Northern and Southern Sudan come together and fully implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.	但除非南北苏丹的人民和领袖开始合作落实《全面和平协定》，这样的愿望几乎不可能实现。


Indeed, unless the proper groundwork is laid for the upcoming elections and the referendum, Sudan faces even greater peril.	事实上，除非能为即将到来的选举和公民投票奠定坚实的基础，否则苏丹将陷入更深的危险之中。


As a first step, it is crucial to ensure that the elections are free, open, and inclusive.	首要步骤关键是要确保选举活动自由、公开而且兼容并蓄。


All people and regions of the country must participate, including the internally displaced and citizens in Darfur’s rebel-controlled areas.	苏丹的全体民众和地区 —— 包括国内流离失所的民众和达尔富尔叛军控制区的苏丹人都必须参加选举。


Moreover, full and unfettered access by international election observers to monitor next year’s elections and the referendum in 2011 is essential.	此外，关键是要允许国际选举观察员有权不受限制地全面监控明年的选举和公民投票。


Only then will the Sudanese population have confidence in the results, thereby providing a foundation on which to build genuine democracy and reform.	只有这样苏丹人才会对结果有信心，进而奠定真正民主建设和改革的基础。


Otherwise, there is a real danger that the elections will heighten, not reduce, tensions and violence.	若非如此，选举活动将进一步增强，而不是缓和当前暴力状况和紧张局势的危险就是切实存在的。


These polls, though vitally important, are not the only challenges that Sudan and its people face.	虽然选举活动至关重要，但并非苏丹及苏丹人民所面临的唯一挑战。


The country’s complex and inter-linked problems cannot be tackled in a piecemeal fashion.	零零散散的努力无法解决这个国家相互牵连的复杂问题。


Nor can individual countries and regional organizations, pursuing different agendas, help Sudan overcome its problems.	遵循各自日程安排的单个国家和地区组织也无法帮助苏丹解决问题。


Their efforts may be well intentioned, but, without better coordination, they will remain ineffective.	他们的努力可能本意是好的，但如果缺乏良好的协调，恐怕难以产生多大的效果。


We urgently need the international community to put in place a clear, coherent, and comprehensive strategy aimed at the elections, the referendum, and beyond.	我们迫切需要国际社会制定针对选举、投票及更长远目标的明确、连贯而全面的对策。