In particular, there must be far greater regional and international support for efforts to prepare the ground for a mediated agreement in Darfur and to resolve outstanding disputes between the leaders of north and south on preparations for the elections, referendum, and other key aspects of the peace agreement.	尤其是必须为准备在达尔富尔签署调解协定及解决南北领导人之间悬而未决的纠纷，进而为选举、公民投票及和平协议的其他关键方面铺平道路的艰苦努力提供更有力的地区和国际帮助。


More generally, the international community – and African nations in particular – must put the needs of Sudan’s people before the interests of its leaders.	更概括的讲，国际社会 —— 尤其是各非洲国家 —— 必须把苏丹人民的利益看得比领导人的利益更重。


The door to a better future for Sudan remains open. But success depends on keeping to the timetable for progress set out in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.	通往苏丹更美好未来的大门仍然敞开着，但成功取决于能否切实执行《全面和平协定》所制定的进展时间表。


Without swift and bold action from the international community – particularly from those who guarantee the peace agreement – to ensure that promises are kept, this opportunity will be lost.	如果没有来自国际社会 —— 特别是和平协定担保国迅速而大胆的确保诺言兑现的行动，我们将会失去这次宝贵的机会。


The consequences could be disastrous.	由此带来的后果可能是灾难性的。


Time is fast running out.	时不我待。


The Problem With Secular Stagnation	长期停滞的问题


DELHI – In a recent exchange between former US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on the plausibility of secular stagnation, one point of agreement was the need for a global perspective.	德里—在美联储前主席伯南克（Ben Bernanke）和美国财政部前部长萨默斯（Larry Summers）关于长期停滞可能性的最新交流中，双方都同意需要从全球角度看待这一问题。


But from that perspective, the hypothesis of secular stagnation in the period leading up to the 2008 global financial crisis is at odds with a central fact: global growth averaged more than 4% – the highest rate on record.	但从这个角度看2008年全球金融危机前的长期停滞假说与核心事实不符：全球增长平均达到了4%以上，是有记录以来的最高值。


The same problem haunts Bernanke’s hypothesis that slow growth reflected a “global savings glut.”	伯南克的假说——慢增长反映了“全球储蓄过剩”也存在同样的问题。


From a Keynesian perspective, an increase in savings cannot explain the surge in activity that the world witnessed in the early 2000s.	从凯恩斯主义角度看，储蓄的增加无法解释21世纪初世界经济活动的猛然活跃。


Supporters of the secular-stagnation hypothesis, it seems, have identified the wrong problem.	长期停滞假说的支持者似乎看错了问题。


From a truly secular and global perspective, the difficulty lies in explaining the pre-crisis boom.	从真正的长期和全球角度看，困难在于解释危机前的繁荣。


More precisely, it lies in explaining the conjunction of three major global developments: a surge in growth (not stagnation), a decline in inflation, and a reduction in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates.	更准确地说，困难在于解释三大全球发展趋势的合一：增长（而非停滞）猛增、通胀下降，以及真实（经通胀调整的）利率降低。


Any persuasive explanation of these three developments must de-emphasize a pure aggregate-demand framework and focus on the rise of emerging markets, especially China.	对着三大发展趋势的可信解释必须淡化纯粹的总需求框架，聚焦于新兴市场特别是中国的崛起。


Essentially, the world witnessed a large positive productivity shock emanating from the emerging markets, which accelerated world growth while reinforcing disinflationary pressures that had already been set in motion by the so-called Great Moderation in business-cycle volatility.	本质上，世界经历了来自新兴市场的大规模正向生产率冲击，这一冲击在加速全球增长的同时加强了通缩压力。 而通缩压力本已因为所谓的商业周期波动性“大稳健”（Great Moderation）而产生。


This key development helps to reconcile two of the three major global developments: faster growth and lower inflation.	这一关键发展趋势有助于协调三大全球发展趋势中的两个：增加加速和通胀下降。


The real puzzle, then, is to square rising global productivity growth with declining real interest rates.	因此，真正的谜题是让全球生产率增长加速与真实利率下降联系起来。


Bernanke correctly emphasized that long-term real interest rates are determined by real growth.	伯南克正确地强调长期真实利率由真实增长决定。


So the positive productivity shock should have raised the return to capital and, hence, equilibrium real interest rates.	因此正向生产率冲击应该提高资本回报，从而也应该提高均衡真实利率。


Moreover, this tendency should have been accentuated by the fact that the productivity shock reflected a decline in the global capital-to-labor ratio implied by the integration of Chinese and Indian workers into the global economy.	此外，这一趋势应该因为以下事实而得到确认：这一正向生产率冲击反映了全球资本-劳动比率的下降，而该比率的下降又是因为中国和印度工人融入全球经济造成的。


But this did not happen: instead, global real interest rates declined.	但事实并非如此，全球真实利率是下降的。


Central to understanding this puzzle are two distinctive features of the emerging-market productivity shock: it was resource-intensive and mercantilist in origin and consequence.	理解这一谜题的核心在于新兴市场生产率冲击的两个不同特征：它是资源密集型的； 它的起因和结果都是重商主义的。


Both features increased global savings.	这两大特征都增加了全球储蓄。


For starters, because relatively poor but large countries – India and especially China – were the engines of global growth, and were resource-hungry, world oil prices soared.	首先，由于相对贫穷的大国——印度以及（特别是）中国——成为全球增长引擎，而它们渴望获得资源，这使得石油价格猛涨。


This redistributed global income toward countries with a higher propensity to save: the oil-exporting countries.	这让全球收入向储蓄倾向更高的国家——石油出口国发生重新分配。


Even more important were mercantilist policies.	更重要的是重商主义政策。


China and other emerging-market countries pursued an economic strategy that defied the standard tenets of growth and development theory.	中国和其他新兴市场国家采取的经济战略有悖于增长和发展理论的标准远离。


Mercantilist growth was based on – and to some extent required – pushing capital out rather than attracting it.	重商主义增长基于——也在某种程度上需要——资本的输出而非吸引。


By limiting foreign inflows and keeping domestic interest rates low, China was able to maintain a relatively weaker currency, which served to sustain its export-led growth model.	限制外国流入和维持本国利率低位让中国得以维持相对较弱势的货币，而这有利于维持其出口拉动型增长模式。


This led to massive current-account surpluses (more than 10% of GDP at one point), which sent capital flowing to the rest of the world.	这导致了巨大的经常项目盈余（一度达到GDP的10%以上），让资本流向世界其他地区。


Recognizing the significance of this strategy exposes a common fallacy whereby the global savings glut is attributed to emerging-market countries’ desire to insure themselves against financial turmoil by acquiring dollar reserves.	认识到这一战略的重大意义揭示出一个常见的谬误——将全球储蓄过剩归��于新兴市场国家渴望通过囤积美元保护自己免受金融动荡影响。


That may have been true in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, but it was quickly overtaken by the growth imperative.	20世纪90年代末亚洲金融危机爆发之初确实如此，但囤积美元的需求很快就被增长需要取代。


In other words, the self-insurance motive might explain China’s first trillion dollars of reserve holdings, but it has nothing to do with the subsequent three trillion.	换句话说，自我保险动机也许可以揭示中国外汇储备的第一个万亿美元，但与随后的三个万亿美元没有关系。


Further contributing to the savings glut was growth itself.	进一步扩大储蓄过剩的是增长本身。


As incomes rose, already-prudent Asians became even more prudent, and profitable companies became even more profitable.	随着收入增加，本身以节俭闻名的亚洲人变得更加节俭，盈利公司也变得更加盈利。


This endogenous response to rapid productivity growth was a key factor contributing to the savings glut.	这一对生产率快速增长的内生反应是储蓄过剩的关键因素。


Old development verities that savings drive growth had to be re-assessed, because, to some extent, emerging-market growth drove savings.	旧发展定律——储蓄驱动增长需要重新评估，因为从某种程度上说，新兴市场的增长驱动了储蓄。


Here lies the explanation of the interest-rate puzzle.	利率之谜的解释就在这里。


As savings (and hence the global supply of loanable funds) increased, real rates came under downward pressure.	随着储蓄（从而全球可贷资金供给）的增加，真实利率遭到下降压力。


Low rates, in turn, provided the lubrication needed to finance the asset bubble in the US and elsewhere.	低利率反过来提供了融资美国和其他地区泡沫所需要的润滑剂。


According to Summers, high savings caused weak growth; under the alternative explanation offered here, it was primarily rapid growth – and its distinctive features – that drove high savings.	据萨默斯的说法，高储蓄导致了低增长； 根据本文的另一种解释，首先是高增长——及其不同的特征——推动了高储蓄。


Today, as world growth decelerates, secular stagnation seems plausible once again.	如今，随着世界增长的减速，长期停滞似乎再一次摆在了面前。


But secular stagnation is an ailment of countries at the economic frontier.	但长期停滞只是位于经济前沿的国家的小恙。


For the rest of the developing world, the real worry is not a shortfall of demand; it is the need to sustain high rates of productivity growth so that they can catch up with the advanced economies.	对除此之外的发展中世界而言，真正的大患不是需求不足； 而是需要维持高生产率增长率，以使它们可以赶超发达经济体。


As policymakers gather in Washington for their ritual conversations this week, they should not lose sight of that key distinction.	决策者本周在华盛顿碰头进行例行讨论时，不应该忽视这一关键区别。


Summertime Blues	夏日蓝调


FLORENCE – Summer is a time for beaches and relaxation – and, historically, for all sorts of destructive crises.	佛罗伦萨—夏天是去海滩度假放松的季节，历史上，也是各种毁灭性危机爆发的季节。


Time and again, it has proven dangerous for the world to be on holiday.	一次又一次，历史一再证明，休假中的世界是十分危险的。


August is an especially bad month for financial markets.	8月份对金融市场来说尤其痛苦。


On August 15, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon ended the commitment of the United States to a fixed gold price, and since then the world has lived with currency volatility and instability.	1971年8月15日，理查德·尼克松总统宣布美国不再履行固定黄金价格的承诺，从此以后，世界步入了货币波动和不稳定的时代。


On August 13, 1982 (a Friday), Mexican Finance Minister Silva Herzog went to Washington to tell the International Monetary Fund and the US government that Mexico would be unable to make its scheduled debt payment the following Monday.	1982年8月13日（星期五），墨西哥财政部长席尔瓦·赫尔佐格来到华盛顿，通知IMF和美国政府墨西哥无法按期偿付下周一的应付债务。


On August 17, 1998, Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko announced that his country would simultaneously default and devalue.	1998年8月17日，俄罗斯总理基里延科宣布俄罗斯将同时实施违约和贬值。


And in the first week of August 2007, IKB Deutsche Industriebank disintegrated, as the US subprime crisis spread.	2007年8月第一周，IKB德意志工业银行（IKB Deutsche Industriebank）因美国次贷危机蔓延而倒闭。


The roots of this seasonal periodicity of crises predate World War I, in the era of the classic gold standard.	这种季节性的危机周期早在一战以前的古典金本位时代就存在了。


The explanation at that time was usually found in the predictable timing of the international payments mechanism.	当时的解释通常可以从国际支付机制的时间可预测性中寻找。


In the late summer, farmers in the Western Hemisphere brought their crops to traders for export, and demanded cash payment, which the traders needed to raise from their banks.	夏末，西半球农民会将庄家卖给贸易商以供出口，并要求现金支付，贸易商需要从银行中提现满足农民支付要求。


The consequence was a demand for gold in the US and mounting exchange-rate pressure on Britain and other European importers.	其结果就是美国形成黄金需求，而英国和其他欧洲进口商承受汇率压力。


The same pattern of selling pressure on the pound sterling was repeated in the interwar era.	在两次大战间隙期，英镑承受了相同的卖压。


Finally, in September 1931, Britain departed from the restored gold standard, which led to the collapse of the system as a whole.	最终，在1931年9月，英国脱离了重新建立的金本位，这导致金本位彻底崩溃。


Europe’s central bankers had been nervous, even superstitious, about the late summer long before 1931.	早在1931年之前很久，欧洲中央银行家们便已经对那个夏末感到紧张甚至疑神疑鬼了。


Montagu Norman, the longest-serving Governor of the Bank of England and a romantic and temperamental man, regularly left his office for several weeks at this time of year, owing to nervous exhaustion.	蒙塔古·诺曼（Montagu Norman，在位时间最长的英格兰银行行长，他生性浪漫又脾气多变）像往常一样，在这个时节离职享受数周的假期，放松自己紧绷的神经。


Indeed, he was literally at sea crossing the Atlantic when the gold standard broke down; the Bank of England staff advised him with a cryptic cabled message, “Old lady goes off.”	事实上，当金本位分崩离析的时候，他正在跨越大西洋的旅途当中。 英格兰银行的工作人员给他发了一封密语般的电报：“老妇人去了。


It is difficult to think of the harvest-driven seasonal cyclicality of payments producing crises today, but somehow the problem persists.	如今，你很难想象收成驱动的季节周期性支付活动会造成危机，但从某种程度上说，问题仍然存在。


One explanation could be that trading is often thinner during the holiday season, so any disturbance inevitably has a bigger impact.	一个可能的解释是，贸易活动通常在假期不那么活跃，因此波动所造成的冲击免不了会比较大。


But the technical side of crises masks a much more dramatic story.	但危机的技术面包含着多得多的戏剧性。


How summers and crises go together was obvious in the event that triggered the first big collapse of the gold standard, the outbreak of WWI in 1914.	夏天和危机一起发生，这一现象在触发了金本位第一次崩溃、1914年一战爆发的事件中一览无余。


Indeed, this was the Urkrise – the event that made the twentieth century so terrible.	事实上，这就是Urkrise——让20世纪变得面目狰狞的事件。


Crises are in part about gamesmanship, about taking the other side by surprise.	从某种程度上说，危机是一种小伎俩，可以让另一方震惊一番。


A country poised to embark on some radical and uncharted course of action often believes that vacations produce additional scope for delaying or frustrating the other side’s counter-move.	准备着手采取某些极端、神秘行动的国家通常会认为假期将造成对更长的反应延迟，让对手措手不及。


The logic of a summer provocation was abundantly clear in 1914.	夏季挑衅的逻辑在1914年最为显露无疑。


Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo on June 28, but the subsequent diplomatic discussions dragged out for weeks.	6月28日，奥地利斐迪南大公在萨拉热窝遇刺，但此后的外交磋商直到几周后才开始。


Germany’s top officials ostensibly went on vacation in order to create the impression that the tensions could easily be resolved.	德国高官装模作样地去休假，营造紧张局势可以轻易解决的假象。


Meanwhile, the Germans waited for the French prime minister and president, who had both been visiting Russia (France’s ally), to leave St. Petersburg, at which point they rapidly pressed Austria to deliver an ultimatum that they knew the Russians could not accept.	与此同时，德国人静待当时正在俄国（法国盟友）访问的法国总理和总统离开圣彼得堡，马上通知奥地利发布他们料定俄国不可能接受的最后通牒。


The news would arrive while the French leaders were at sea, and would thus find it more difficult to produce an effective and coordinated response.	消息将在法国领导人跨海旅行时到达，因此法俄难以出台有效的合作应对措施。


Vacation logic was also used to maximize bargaining power in recent cases of default or threatened default.	在最近的案例中，假期逻辑也被用于最大化违约或违约威胁的讨价还价能力。


Mexico’s action in August 1982 took officials elsewhere completely by surprise.	墨西哥在1982年8月的举动让其他国家的官员们大吃一惊。


In the US, Treasury Secretary Donald Regan was playing golf with President Ronald Reagan, while vacationing European central bankers were hard to reach in an era before mobile telephones.	当时是，时任美国财政部长唐纳德·里根正在与总统罗纳德·里根打高尔夫球，休假中的欧洲央行行长们也难觅踪迹，因为当时还没有移动电话。


A predictable funding problem was left unresolved until the moment when creditors would be least likely to present a united front, and most likely to give in to pressure to undertake crisis-management measures.	直到债权人最不可能形成统一战线、最有可能屈从于采取危机管理措施压力的时刻，这个可预见的融资问题才得到了解决。


In August 1998, Russia had only just concluded a gigantic IMF program that appeared to stabilize the country.	1998年8月，俄罗斯刚刚完成了巨量IMF援助计划——惟其如此，俄罗斯才能稳定下来。


That arrangement provided enough funds for insiders to exchange their rubles for foreign assets.	这一安排为内幕人士提供了足够的资金，用他们的卢布换取外国资产。


Once the insiders had saved their own positions, they no longer saw any need to maintain the exchange rate.	当内幕人士拯救了自己的资产后，他们也就看不到维持汇率的必要了。


The IMF was in summer mode, and all of the consultations required complicated conference calls from remote locations.	而IMF正处于夏季模式中，任何磋商都需要把身处偏远地区的成员叫在一起开会。


When a compromise package has been agreed that makes the summer look calm, when the negotiators think that they have earned a good rest – this is the moment for the brilliant surprise.	当一个让夏天平静下来的妥协计划达成后，谈判者们会想，这下可以好好休息一下了。 而此时正是大惊喜即将爆发的时候。


A debtor’s negotiating strategy is to make creditors believe that a collapse would produce some much bigger catastrophe, which can be avoided only by more concessions and more support.	债务人的谈判策略是让债权人相信崩溃将造成更大的灾难，而只有债权人做出更多让步、给予更多支持才能避免惨事发生。


That sense is always more likely when the debtor’s action comes without warning – the financial equivalent of a pre-dawn attack.	债务人的行动总是毫无预警——如同黎明前的突然袭击一样。


The eurozone leaders’ summit on June 28-29 in Brussels now looks like the most far-reaching and satisfactory recent attempt at European diplomacy.	6月28—29日的欧元区领导人布鲁塞尔峰会貌似称得上近来欧洲外交事务上影响最深远、效果最令人满意的外交事件。


But it might look very different in September.	但到了9月份，人们的看法说不定会有大不同。


The Sunni Arc of Instability	动荡的逊尼派地区


ABU DHABI – While international observers fixate on the Sunni-Shia rivalry’s role in shaping geopolitics in the Islamic world, deep fissures within the Sunni arc that stretches from the Maghreb-Sahel region of North Africa to the Afghanistan-Pakistan belt are increasingly apparent.	阿布扎比—国际观察者的目光集中在逊尼派-什叶派对峙对伊斯兰世界地缘政治的影响，而从北非马格利布-萨赫勒（Maghreb-Sahel）一直延伸到阿富汗-巴基斯坦地带的什叶派内部的深刻分歧正变得日益明显。


Moreover, it is Sunni communities that produce the transnational jihadists who have become a potent threat to secular, democratic states near and far.	此外，逊尼派还制造了跨国圣战组织，后者已成为远近世俗民主国家的重大威胁。


What is driving this fragmentation and radicalization within the ranks of Sunni Islam, and how can it be managed?	是什么助长着逊尼派伊斯兰教内部的这一分裂和激进化，我们如何管理这一趋势？


The importance of addressing that question cannot be overstated.	解决这一问题的重要性如何强调丢不过分。


The largest acts of international terror, including the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington, DC, and the 2008 Mumbai attack, were carried out by brutal transnational Sunni organizations (Al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba, respectively).	国际恐怖主义的最大规模行动，包括2011年对纽约和华盛顿的袭击以及2008年的孟买袭击，都是由残忍的跨国逊尼派组织（分别是基地组织和虔诚军（Lashkar-e-Taiba））实施的。


The Sunni militant group Boko Haram, known internationally for abducting 276 schoolgirls in April and forcing them to marry its members, has been wreaking havoc in Nigeria for years.	逊尼派军事组织博科圣地（Boko Haram）因为在4月份 劫持276名女生并强迫她们嫁给其成员而在全世界臭名昭著。 该组织扰乱尼日利亚已有多年。


And the Sunni extremists of the Islamic State, whose dramatic rise has entailed untold horrors to Iraq and Syria, are seeking to establish a caliphate, by whatever means necessary.	而伊斯兰国的逊尼派极端主义者正在不惜一切手段寻求建立哈里发帝国。 伊斯兰国的崛起给伊拉克和叙利亚带来了难以名状的恐怖。


The influence of these organizations is far-reaching.	这些组织影响深远。


Just last month, individuals inspired by these groups’ activities carried out two separate attacks, one in the Canadian parliament and another on police officers in New York.	上个月，受这些组织煽动的个人实施了两次独立袭击，一次发生在加拿大议会，另一次是针对纽约警官。


Political and tribal sectarianism in the Sunni Middle East and North Africa is both a reflection and a driver of the region’s weakening political institutions, with a series of failed or failing states becoming hubs of transnational terrorism.	中东和北非逊尼派政治和部落宗派主义既是该地区政治制度萎靡不振的反映，也是原因，一系列失败和正在走向失败的国家沦为跨国恐怖主义的枢纽。


A lawless Libya, for example, is now exporting jihad and guns across the Sahel and undermining the security of fellow Maghreb countries and Egypt.	比如，没有法律的利比亚正在向萨赫勒地区输出圣战者和枪支，影响马格利布国家和埃及的安全。


Several largely Sunni countries – including Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and Afghanistan – have become de facto partitioned, with little prospect of reunification in the near future.	一些以逊尼派为主体的国家——包括叙利亚、伊拉克、也门、利比亚、索马里和阿富汗——已陷入事实分裂，短期看不到重新统一的希望。


Jordan and Lebanon could be the next states to succumb to Sunni extremist violence.	约旦和黎巴嫩也许是下一批卷入逊尼派极端暴力的国家。


The Sunni tumult has underscored the fragility of almost all Arab countries, while diluting the centrality of the Israel-Palestine conflict.	逊尼派骚动凸显出几乎所有阿拉伯国家都存在的脆弱状况，也淡化了以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突的中心地位。


The post-Ottoman order – created by the British, with some help from the French, after World War I – is disintegrating, with no viable alternative in sight.	由英国人在法国人的帮助下于一战后建立的后奥斯曼帝国时代秩序正在土崩瓦解，而可行的替代方案尚未出现。


The sectarianism plaguing the Sunni belt is affecting even the relatively stable oil sheikdoms of the Gulf, where a schism within the Gulf Cooperation Council is spurring new tensions and proxy competition among its members.	肆虐于逊尼派地区的宗派主义甚至还开始影响相对稳定的波斯湾石油酋长国——波斯湾合作委员会（Gulf Cooperation Council）内部的分裂正在刺激成员国之间新的紧张和代理竞争。


Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates view Qatar’s efforts to aid Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood as an existential threat, even as their own wealth has fueled the spread of Salafi jihadism and Al Qaeda ideology.	沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国将卡塔尔对穆斯林兄弟会这样的伊斯兰教众的支持视为生存威胁，虽然它们自身的财富也助长了沙拉菲派圣战主义和基地组织意识形态的传播。


Both countries, along with Bahrain, have recalled their ambassadors from Qatar.	两国以及巴林都召回了驻卡塔尔大使。


This rupture is compounded by a rift between the Middle East’s two main Sunni powers, Egypt and Turkey, whose relationship soured last year, after the Egyptian military ousted the Muslim Brotherhood government, backed by pro-Islamist Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.	这一裂痕因为中东两大逊尼派势力——埃及和土耳其之间的分歧而更加深化了。 埃土关系开始恶化于去年埃及军方在亲伊斯兰教的土耳其总统埃尔多安的支持下将穆斯林兄弟会政府赶下台之后。


Egypt recalled its ambassador from Ankara and expelled the Turkish ambassador from Cairo.	埃及召回驻安卡拉大使，并将土耳其大使驱逐出开罗。


In September, the Egyptian foreign ministry accused Erdoğan of seeking to “provoke chaos” and “incite divisions in the Middle East region through his support for groups and terrorist organizations.”	9月，埃及外交部指责埃尔多安试图“挑起混乱”并“通过支持恐怖组织煽动中东地区的分裂。 ”


A similar divide exists between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the latter’s provision of aid and sanctuary to Afghan militants – a divide that will only deepen when the United States-led NATO coalition ends its combat operations in Afghanistan this year.	阿富汗和巴基斯坦之间也有类似的分歧——后者为阿富汗军阀提供援助和避难所，今年美国领导的北约联军结束阿富汗作战计划将进一步深化这一分歧。


Pakistan’s support has spawned two incarnations of the Taliban: the Afghan Taliban, sponsored by the Pakistani military, and the Pakistani Taliban, the Pakistani military’s nemesis.	巴基斯坦的支持产生了两个塔利班：巴基斯坦军方支持的阿富汗塔利班和巴基斯坦军方的敌人巴基斯坦塔利班。


Successive Afghan governments have refused to recognize the frontier with Pakistan known as the Durand line, a British-colonial invention that split the large ethnic Pashtun population.	阿富汗继任政府拒绝承认被称为杜兰线（Durand line，由英国殖民者划定的分割庞大的普什图族的边界）的阿巴边界。


Such conflicts are spurring the militarization of Sunni states.	这些冲突刺激了逊尼派国家的军国化。


The UAE and Qatar have already instituted compulsory military service for adult males.	阿联酋和卡塔尔都建立了成年男性的义务兵制。


And Kuwait is considering following in Jordan’s footsteps by reintroducing conscription, which is already in place in most Sunni states (and Iran).	科威特正在考虑步约旦的后尘重新引入征兵制度，而大部分逊尼派国家（以及伊朗）已经采取了这一制度。


Against this background, efforts to tame the deep-seated Sunni-Shia rivalry (by, for example, improving relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran), though undoubtedly important, should not take priority over a strategy to address the sectarianism plaguing the Sunni belt.	在这样的背景下，解决根深蒂固的逊尼派-什叶派对立的努力（比如改善沙特阿拉伯和伊朗的关系）尽管毫无疑问至关重要，但也不应该高于解决肆虐于逊尼派内部的宗派主义的战略。


That strategy must center on federalism.	这一战略必须以联邦制为核心。


Had federalism been introduced in Somalia, for example, when the north-south rift emerged, it probably would not have ended up as a failed state.	比如，如果索马里在南北分歧刚刚浮现时就已经采取了联邦制，也许就不会沦为失败之国。


Today, federalism can allow for the orderly management of key Sunni countries, where a unitary state simply is not practical.	如今，联邦制能让有序管理重要逊尼派国家成为可能（形成单一国家已经不再是现实选择）。


The problem is that federalism has become a dirty word in most Sunni countries.	问题在于联邦制在许多逊尼派国家是一个贬义词。


And the emergence of new threats has made some governments, most notably Saudi Arabia’s, staunchly opposed to change.	新威胁的产生让一些政府（主要是沙特阿拉伯）非常抵制变化。


What these countries do not seem to recognize is that it is the petrodollar-funded export of Wahhabism – the source of modern Sunni jihad – that has gradually extinguished more liberal Islamic traditions elsewhere and fueled the international terrorism that now threatens to devour its sponsors.	这些国家没有意识到的是，逐渐侵蚀其他地区更自由的伊斯兰教传统、助长如今有可能反噬赞助国的国际恐怖主义的正是石油美元所支持的瓦哈比派的输出。


Stagnation is not stability.	停滞不是稳定。


On the contrary, in the Sunni arc today, it means a vicious cycle of expanding extremism, rapid population growth, rising unemployment, worsening water shortages, and popular discontent.	相反，在今天的逊尼派地区，这意味着恐怖主义扩大、人口增长迅速、失业率上升、水短缺恶化和群众不满的恶性循环。


Political fissures and tribal and ethnic sectarianism add fuel to this lethal mix of volatility and violence.	政治分裂和部落和种族宗派主义则为动荡和暴力的致命组合火上浇油。


It is time for the Sunni world to recognize the need for a federalist approach to manage the instability and conflict that plagues it.	逊尼派世界应该认识到采取联邦制治理影响该地区的动荡和冲突的必要性。


Even the US must reconsider its regional policy, which has long depended on alliances with despotic Sunni rulers.	美国和必须反思其长期依赖于逊尼派暴君结盟的地区政策。


In a region ravaged by conflict, business as usual is no longer an option.	在这个冲突肆虐的地区，放任自流绝不是好选择。


Stalking a Killer Fungus	遏制杀人菌


SINGAPORE – Warnings of the rise of so-called superbugs – disease-causing microbes that are resistant to many (or all) antibiotics – have been coming thick and fast in recent years.	发自新加坡——对所谓超级真菌（对许多或所有抗生素都具备抗药性的致病微生物）不断涌现的警告在近年来日益频密。


What many people seem not to realize is that superbugs are already here – and they are already killing people.	许多人似乎还未意识到这种超级菌的存在——但事实上他们早就已经夺去多条生命了。


A prime example is Candida auris, a multidrug-resistant fungal infection that is emerging as a serious global health threat.	其中一个主要范例就是耳道假丝酵母菌（Candida auris）这种正在凸显成为全球严峻健康威胁的多药耐药性真菌感染。


C.auris was first identified in Japan in 2009, in the ear of a patient who complained of an infection. (Auris is Latin for ear.)	耳道假丝酵母菌在2009年于一个报称感染的日本患者耳朵中首次发现（Auris是拉丁语中“耳朵”的意思）。


Since then, C. auris has been documented as the cause of wound infections, bloodstream infections, ear infections, and respiratory infections in countries across four continents, including India, Kuwait, Pakistan, South Africa, South Korea, and countries in South America.	自那以后，耳道假丝酵母菌被证实是导致某些伤口感染，血液感染，耳朵感染和呼吸道感染的成因，病例在四个大洲都有记录，包括印度，科威特，巴基斯坦，南非，韩国和一些南美洲国家。


In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that the fungus infected 13 people from May 2013 to August 2016, four of whom have died.	美国疾病控制和预防中心的报告指出，该真菌从2013年5月至2016年8月间已经在美国境内感染了13人，其中4人死亡。


While it remains unclear whether those deaths were due to the C. auris infection or to underlying health conditions, the need to address the scourge of C. auris – which has led to the deaths of up to 70% of those infected – cannot be disputed.	虽然目前还不清楚这些死亡是由于耳道假丝酵母菌感染还是基本健康状况所致，但对耳道假丝酵母菌危害性的研究——已经导致高达70％的被感染者死亡——是无法回避的。


There is evidence that C. auris is spread in health-care settings.	有证据表明耳道假丝酵母菌正在卫生设施中传播。


Indeed, the fungus seemed to have a greater effect on people with serious long-term conditions.	事实上该真菌似乎对患有严重长期症状的人有更大的影响。


As they frequent hospitals, and nursing homes, they come into contact with many health-care professionals, caregivers, and pieces of medical equipment, all of which could spread the fungus onto their skin or into their bodies.	由于这些人频繁出入医院和疗养院，大量接触医护人员和医疗设备，而所有这些人员设备都可能将真菌传播到他们的皮肤或体内。


In the United Kingdom, 50 C. auris cases were reported at London’s Royal Brompton Hospital alone from April 2015 to July 2016.	在英国，在2015年4月至2016年7月间仅伦敦皇家安普顿医院就报告了50例耳道假丝酵母菌感染病例。


Of the 13 US cases, four – two in Illinois, one in Maryland, and one in New Jersey – occurred at the same health-care institutions at different times, and genome sequencing showed that patients treated in the same hospital in New Jersey had nearly identical strains.	在13例美国病例中，其中4例——伊利诺伊州4例，马里兰州1例，新泽西1例——是在不同时间发生在相同的卫生保健机构中，基因组测序显示在新泽西同一家医院治疗的病人都携带几乎相同的菌株。


Not only are Candida infections particularly common in hospitals, but their fatality rates also seem to be higher among patients in hospitals and, specifically, intensive-care facilities.	耳道假丝酵母菌感染不仅在医院中尤为常见，且医院（特别是重症监护设施中）的患者死亡率似乎更高。


After all, such patients are already in an immune-compromised state, and have been using antibiotics, which can kill off healthy bacteria.	毕竟这类患者已经处于免疫受损状态，并且已经使用了可以杀死健康细菌的抗生素。


But the main reason C. auris represents such an acute threat is that treatment options are severely limited.	但耳道假丝酵母菌之所以成为一种严重威胁，是因为其治疗手段极为限。


While most C. auris infections are treatable with a class of antifungal drug called echinocandins, some have demonstrated varying levels of resistance to echinocandins, as well as to the other two classes of antifungal drugs, azoles and polyenes.	尽管大多数耳道假丝酵母菌感染可使用刺白霉素类（echinocandins）抗真菌药物治疗，但其中一些已证实对刺白霉素以及其它两种唑类和多烯类抗真菌药物表现出不同水平的抗药性。


Even when the drugs do work, they are relatively toxic: azoles and polyenes are nephrotoxic (damaging to the kidneys), and echinocandins are hepatotoxic (damaging to the liver).	即使这些药物能起作用，它们也相对存在一定毒性：唑类和多烯类具有肾毒性（损害肾脏），棘白菌素则存在肝毒性（损害肝脏）。


Most are also fungistatic, meaning that they stop fungi from replicating, but do not kill them.	这些药大多数也是真菌抑制药，意味着他们阻止真菌复制，但无法杀死他们。


And they interact with drugs that patients may be taking for other long-term conditions, such as chemotherapy agents and immunosuppressants.	它们还可能与患者针对其他长期治疗服用的药物（如化疗药剂和免疫抑制剂）相互作用。


Moreover, developing new antifungal drugs is not a priority for pharmaceutical manufacturers.	此外由于抗真菌药物比抗菌药物更难开发，药厂也不太愿意开发新的抗真菌药物。


Antifungal drugs are more difficult to develop than antibacterial drugs, because fungal cells are eukaryotic, like human cells, rather than prokaryotic like bacterial cells. As a result, drugs must be selective enough to work on the fungal cells, without damaging human cells.	真菌细胞是跟人体细胞类似的真核细胞，而不是细菌细胞那样的原核细胞，因此药物必须具备足够的选择性以作用于真菌细胞而不损害人类细胞。


And, while the global market for human antifungal therapeutics is worth over $6 billion and growing, owing to population aging and growing risks from fungal infections, generic competition is strong.	虽然由于人口老龄化和真菌感染的风险不断增加，人类抗真菌治疗剂的全球市场价值高达60亿美元且不断增长，但药厂间的竞争非常激烈。


So even if companies do invest in breakthrough drugs, cheaper options will soon be available, reducing profit margins considerably.	即便药厂投资研制突破性药物，也将很快���现更廉价的竞争者，从而令利润大大降低。


In lieu of effective treatments, controlling the spread of C. auris becomes all the more critical.	在有效治疗之外，控制耳道假丝酵母菌的传播变得更加关键。


This requires, first and foremost, better diagnosis.	而这首先需要实现更准确的诊断。


C. auris is not easy to identify.	耳道假丝酵母菌不容易被识别出来。


Because biochemical-based tests cannot differentiate between C. auris and other invasive Candida infections, several cases of C. auris were initially misidentified as C. haemulonii.	因为相关生化测试无法将耳道假丝酵母菌感染和其他侵入性念珠菌感染区分开来，以致有数个耳道假丝酵母菌病例最初被误诊为希木龙念珠菌（Candida haemulonii）感染。


Many microbiology laboratories currently do not routinely differentiate Candida isolates or use yeast identification methods.	当前许多微生物实验室不会刻意区分念珠菌分离物或使用酵母鉴定法。


Hospitals and medical centers need molecular techniques to identify C. auris accurately.	而医院和医疗中心需要动用分子技术来准确鉴定耳道假丝酵母菌。


Once diagnosed, C. auris patients need to be isolated; medical equipment must be thoroughly disinfected; and strict precautions need to be enforced for health-care workers.	一旦确诊，耳道假丝酵母菌患者需要被隔离； 医疗设备必须彻底消毒；


Otherwise, outbreaks among already vulnerable people could become even more common.	同时对卫生保健工作者采取严格的预防措施。 否则感染就很可能会在本已缺乏抵抗力的人群中爆发。


The spread of C. auris highlights the need for coordinated local and international public-health initiatives to address the emerging problem of drug-resistant infections in hospitals.	耳道假丝酵母菌的传播说明我们需要协调一致的地方和国际公共卫生对策以解决医院中出现的耐药性感染问题。


If private pharmaceutical companies are not going to invest in the development of novel or more effective drugs and new and better diagnostics, the public sector has to step in.	如果私人制药厂无意投资开发更有效的新药物和更有效的新诊断手段，公共部门就必须介入。


The rise of the super-fungi must be stopped.	阻止超级真菌的传播刻不容缓。


Super-Sizing the IMF is Wrong	扩大国际货币基金组织的贷款规模是错误的


CAMBRIDGE – As the global financial crisis radiates out from the developed economies into emerging markets, it is ravaging not only governance-challenged economies such as Venezuela, Russia, and Argentina.	剑桥－当全球金融危机从发达经济体向新兴市场扩散的时候，它不只破坏了像委内瑞拉、俄罗斯和阿根廷这样的国家治理受到挑战的经济体，还有其他的经济体。


The crisis is also striking countries like Brazil, Korea, and South Africa, which appeared to have made substantial and lasting progress towards macroeconomic stability.	金融危机也打击了像巴西、韩国和南非这样的国家，这些国家似乎在宏观经济稳定方面取得了重大和持久的进步。


For this reason, the future shape of the International Monetary Fund is rapidly moving to the top of the agenda for world leaders as they prepare to meet in Washington in mid-November to discuss the future of the global financial system.	因此，当世界各国领导人准备于十一月中旬在华盛顿开会讨论全球金融系统的未来的时候，国际货币基金组织未来的形态正在迅速成为这些领导人的会议的首要议题。


Just a short time ago, the IMF seemed relegated to a sustained period of irrelevance as it failed to modernize either its euro-centric political representation or its arcane government-to-government lending facilities.	仅仅在不久之前，因为国际货币基金组织既没能现代化其以欧洲为中心的政治架构，也没能现代化其神秘的政府对政府的借贷工具，它似乎在较长的一段时间内变得和当前的金融危机毫不相干。


Suddenly, the Fund has moved to center stage as the only agency seemingly capable of stemming the vicious downward spiral that is currently seizing emerging-market stocks and bonds.	接着，突然，国际货币基金组织已经作为似乎是能够阻止当前绑架新兴市场股票和债券的恶性下降螺旋趋势的唯一机构，来到了舞台的中心。


World leaders should be happy that the IMF stands ready to take the lead in the next phase of the global financial crisis, even if its lending resources of approximately $250 billion are inadequate to stem the current run on emerging markets.	国际货币基金组织准备在全球金融危机的下一阶段起带头作用，即使其大约2500亿美元的贷款对阻止金融危机当前在新兴市场的扩散来说，并不够，但是，世界各国领导人仍然应该对此感到高兴。


Emerging-market companies alone have hundreds of billions coming due in the next twelve months, far more than their governments’ reserves can cover if credit markets do not normalize.	单单新兴市场的公司在接下来的12个月里，就有几千亿美元贷款到期，如果信贷市场不能正常化，这个数字就会远远超过它们的政府储备。


Unlike United States Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, most emerging-market central bankers are in no position to extend blank checks across their economies without a boomerang effect on interest rates and exchange rates.	和美联储主席本·伯南克不同，绝大多数的新兴市场中央银行官员不能在不对利率和汇率产生反向效应（boomerang effect）的情况下，将空白支票用到他们的经济上。


(We will see how investors judge the dollar once the smoke clears and the huge expansion of US money and debt becomes evident.)	（我们将会看到，一旦美国的烟雾弹消失，以及美国的货币和债务的巨大扩张变得明显时，投资者会怎样评价美元。 ）


But it would be a terrible mistake simply to super-size the IMF in its current guise by greatly scaling up its lending facilities, as many propose.	但是，如果像许多人提议的那样，仅仅通过大规模地增加国际货币基金组织的借贷工具，在其现有框架下扩大其规模，将会是一个可怕的错误。


Rather, the Fund’s role, even in the current crisis, should be sharpened as an interlocutor between lenders and developing country borrowers, rather than simply as a replacement for all other loan sources.	反而，即使在当前的危机中，国际货币基金组织作为贷款国家和发展中国家借款人的中间人的作用也应该得到加强，而不是将国际货币基金组织仅仅作为所有其他贷款资源的替代者。


The key reforms for the IMF remain (1) improving governance by reducing European representation while increasing that of Asia, and (2) focusing the Fund’s mission on monitoring and surveillance rather than as a direct provider of bailout loans.	国际货币基金组织主要应进行的改革仍然是（1）通过降低欧洲在基金中的影响力同时提高亚洲的影响力，来���善基金的治理，和（2）关注国际货币基金组织在监督和监管上的作用，而不是作为救市贷款直接提供者的作用。


Contrary to popular opinion, now is exactly the right time to make these changes.	和流行的观点相反，现在正是作出这些改变的恰当时机。


Rich country governments, led by central banks, should provide the large scale funding needed to stem the run on developing country finances.	由中央银行领导的富裕国家的政府，应该提供阻止发展中国家金融业危机蔓延所需的大量资金。


The Fund’s main role should be in monitoring.	国际货币基金组织主要应该在监督和监管方面起作用。


Without its own currency, the IMF is poorly positioned to intervene with the overwhelming force needed for lender-of-last-resort operations.	没有自己的货币，国际货币基金组织在介入最终贷款人操作所需的巨大力量上，处于非常不利的地位。


In principle, the IMF could be allowed to print money (it already has its own accounting unit, the so-called Special Drawing Rights).	原则上，国际货币基金组织被允许印发钞票（它已经有了自己的会计单位，即所谓的特别提款权）。


But this is not realistic, given the lack of an adequate system for global governance.	但是，鉴于缺乏全球治理的恰当体系，这并不现实。


Even the euro area, which is far more cohesive than the world as a whole, has not quite figured out how to use its central bank as lender of last resort.	即使比作为一个整体的世界要有更多凝聚力的欧元区，也没有完全明白怎样将其中央银行作为最终贷款人加以使用。


The IMF’s lending resources have shrunk dramatically relative to world trade and income compared over the past 50 years.	和过去50年相比，相对世界贸易和收入，国际货币基金组织的贷款收缩巨大。


But increasing its resources to a trillion dollars or more is not a realistic option, either.	但是，将国际货币基金组织的贷款数量增加到一万亿美元或者更多，也不是一个现实的选择。


The IMF does not have an adequate framework for handling the massive defaults that could easily attend a huge surge in lending, much less the political will to distinguish between countries that are facing genuine short-term liquidity problems and countries that are actually facing insolvency problems.	国际货币基金组织没有处理通常伴随贷款数量激增的巨大违约的恰当架构，更没有区分真正面临短期流动性问题的国家和实际上面临破产问题的国家的政治意愿。


So what should world leaders do with the IMF?  In the short run, the IMF could help coordinate additional loans from countries such as the US, Japan, and China, to help maintain economic and political stability in the developing world.	所以，世界各国领导人应该对国际货币基金组织做些什么呢？ 在短期内，国际货币基金组织可以帮助协调来自诸如美国、日本和中国这样的国家的额外贷款，以帮助维护发展中世界国家的经济和政治稳定。


Without directly acknowledging America’s central role in causing the financial crisis, the US Federal Reserve has already offered to exchange up to $30 billion each with the central banks of Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Singapore.	在没有直接承认美国在引发金融危机中的主要作用的情况下，美国联邦储备系统已经分别为韩国、巴西、墨西哥和新加坡的中央银行提供了高达300亿美元的货币互换。


The IMF can also play a useful role in helping surplus countries manage their foreign exchange reserves, much as the Bank for International Settlements already does.  World leaders can allow the IMF to sell some of its gold stock to endow the agency with enough cash to fund its monitoring and surveillance functions.  Then in the future, it will not need to make crisis loans just to keep the lights on in the building.	国际货币基金组织也可以在帮助顺差国家管理它们的外汇储备方面，起到有益的作用，就像国际清算银行已经在做的那样。 世界各国领导人可以让国际货币基金组织出售一些自己的黄金储备，使其有资助其监管和监督功能的足够资金。


As tempting as it may be to ramp up IMF lending on a long-term basis, this would be a strategic mistake for both the world and the Fund.	在长期内增加国际货币基金组织的贷款尽管非常诱惑人，但是，这对世界和国际货币基金组织来说都是一个错误策略。


The rich countries, together with China and the Middle East oil exporters do indeed need to take bold steps to help out emerging markets, and the Fund has a useful role to play.	富裕国家与中国以及中东石油出口国一起，确实有必要采取大胆的措施来帮助新兴市场走出困境，而且国际货币基金组织可以起到有益的作用。


But super-sizing the Fund, without sufficient governance improvements and lending constraints, would give the world too much of a good thing.	但是，在没有足够的治理改善和贷款限制的情况下，扩大国际货币基金组织的贷款规模，对世界来说一件好事就变成坏事了。


The Global Economy on the Fly	运行不畅的全球经济


ISTANBUL – In the last four weeks, I have traveled to Sofia, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, London, Milan, Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo, Istanbul, and throughout the United States.	伊斯坦布尔—过去四周以来，我分别去了索菲亚、吉隆坡、伦敦、米兰、法兰克福、柏林、巴黎、北京、东京、伊斯坦布尔，还穿越了美国。


As a result, the myriad challenges facing the global economy were never far away.	结果，全球经济所面临的诸多挑战从未离我们远去。


In Europe, the tail risk of a eurozone break-up and a loss of market access by Spain and Italy were reduced by last summer’s decision by the European Central Bank to backstop sovereign debt.	在欧洲，欧元区解体的尾部风险以及西班牙和意大利进入市场能力的下降因欧洲央行去年夏天的决定——为主权债务兜底而减弱了。


But the monetary union’s fundamental problems – low potential growth, ongoing recession, loss of competitiveness, and large stocks of private and public debt – have not been resolved.	但货币联盟的根本问题——潜在增长率低迷、持续的衰退、竞争力缺失以及公私债务存量巨大——并没有得到解决。


Moreover, the grand bargain between the eurozone core, the ECB, and the periphery – painful austerity and reforms in exchange for large-scale financial support – is now breaking down, as austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery runs up against bailout fatigue in core countries like Germany and the Netherlands.	此外，欧元区核心国、欧洲央行和外围国之间的扯皮——用痛苦的紧缩和改革交换大规模金融支持——正在走向失败，欧元区外围国的紧缩疲劳正和德国和荷兰等核心国的援助疲劳针锋相对。


Austerity fatigue in the periphery is clearly evident from the success of anti-establishment forces in Italy’s recent election; large street demonstrations in Spain, Portugal, and elsewhere; and now the botched bailout of Cypriot banks, which has fueled massive public anger.	外围国的紧缩疲劳明确地体现在意大利最新选举以反政府力量获胜告终、西班牙、葡萄牙和其他各地的大规模街头示威以及最新的塞浦路斯银行援助砸锅导致大规模公众愤怒上。


Throughout the periphery, populist parties of the left and right are gaining ground.	在整个外围地区，左翼和右翼民粹主义政党在节节胜利。


Meanwhile, Germany’s insistence on imposing losses on bank creditors in Cyprus is the latest symptom of bailout fatigue in the core.	与此同时，德国坚持要塞浦路斯银行债权人接受损失，这是核心国援助疲劳的最新证明。


Other core eurozone members, eager to limit the risks to their taxpayers, have similarly signaled that creditor “bail-ins” are the way of the future.	其他欧元区核心成员国急切地想限制其纳税人的风险，也放出了类似的债权人“自救”才是未来方案的信号。


Outside the eurozone, even the United Kingdom is struggling to restore growth, owing to the damage caused by front-loaded fiscal-consolidation efforts, while anti-austerity sentiment is also mounting in Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary.	在欧元区之外，就连英国也在为重塑增长而苦苦挣扎，这是拜前瞻性财政整合措施造成的伤害所赐； 与此同时，保加利亚、罗马尼亚和匈牙利的反紧缩情绪也颇为高涨。


In China, the leadership transition has occurred smoothly.	中国的权力交接平稳地结束了。


But the country’s economic model remains, as former Premier Wen Jiabao famously put it, “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”	但该国的经济模式依然照旧，用前总理温家宝的话说，是“不稳定、不平衡、不协调、不可持续”的。


China’s problems are many: regional imbalances between its coastal regions and the interior, and between urban and rural areas; too much savings and fixed investment, and too little private consumption; growing income and wealth inequality; and massive environmental degradation, with air, water, and soil pollution jeopardizing public health and food safety.	中国问题重重：沿海和内陆、城市和农村地区之间的失衡； 储蓄和固定投资过度而私人消费太少；


The country’s new leaders speak earnestly of deepening reforms and rebalancing the economy, but they remain cautious, gradualist, and conservative by inclination.	中国新领导人真诚地表示要深化改革，实现经济再平衡，但他们的举措是谨慎、渐近、保守的。


Moreover, the power of vested interests that oppose reform – state-owned enterprises, provincial governments, and the military, for example – has yet to be broken.	此外，反对改革的既得利益——比如国有企业、省政府和军队——还有待破冰。


As a result, the reforms needed to rebalance the economy may not occur fast enough to prevent a hard landing when, by next year, an investment bust materializes.	因此，再平衡经济所需要的改革也许无法快速实施以防止（明年）投资泡沫破裂发生带来的硬着陆。


In China – and in Russia (and partly in Brazil and India) – state capitalism has become more entrenched, which does not bode well for growth.	在中国——以及俄罗斯（巴西和印度也有一定程度的类似）——国家资本主义更加根深蒂固了，这对增长来说不是好消息。


Overall, these four countries (the BRICs) have been over-hyped, and other emerging economies may do better in the next decade: Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia in Asia; Chile, Colombia, and Peru in Latin America; and Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Poland in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.	总的来说，这四个国家（金砖四国）有炒作之嫌，而其他新兴经济体可以在未来十年中表现更好：亚洲的马来西亚、菲律宾和印尼； 拉美的智利、哥伦比亚和秘鲁；


Farther East, Japan is trying a new economic experiment to stop deflation, boost economic growth, and restore business and consumer confidence.	在远东，日本歌正在进行阻止通缩、提振经济增长和重塑商业和消费者信心的新经济实验。


“Abenomics” has several components: aggressive monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan; a fiscal stimulus this year to jump start demand, followed by fiscal austerity in 2014 to rein in deficits and debt; a push to increase nominal wages to boost domestic demand; structural reforms to deregulate the economy; and new free-trade agreements – starting with the Trans-Pacific Partnership – to boost trade and productivity.	“安倍经济学”包括数个部分：日本银行的激进货币刺激、今年施以提振需求的财政刺激然后在2014年施以抑制赤字和债务的财政紧缩、推进名义工资增长以提振内需、结构性改革以减少对经济的监管，以及提振贸易和生产率的新自由贸易协定——首先便是跨大西洋合作伙伴协定。


But the challenges are daunting.	但挑战也重重。


It is not clear if deflation can be beaten with monetary policy; excessive fiscal stimulus and deferred austerity may make the debt unsustainable; and the structural-reform components of Abenomics are vague.	目前尚不清楚货币政策是否能够打败通缩； 过度财政刺激和推迟紧缩可能导致债务不可持续；


Moreover, tensions with China over territorial claims in the East China Sea may adversely affect trade and foreign direct investment.	而安倍经济学的结构改革部分仍然模糊不清。 此外，与中国在东海问题上的领土争端可能会对贸易和外国直接投资带来消极影响。


Then there is the Middle East, which remains an arc of instability from the Maghreb to Pakistan.	还有中东，从马格里布（Maghreb）到巴基斯坦一线仍是动荡地带。


Turkey – with a young population, high potential growth, and a dynamic private sector – seeks to become a major regional power.	土耳其——它人口更年轻、潜在增长更高、私人部门更有活力——正在寻求成为地区大国。


But Turkey faces many challenges of its own.	但土耳其面临诸多自身挑战。


Its bid to join the European Union is currently stalled, while the eurozone recession dampens its growth.	它加入欧盟的进程陷入了停滞，而欧元区衰退也在影响着它的增长。


Its current-account deficit remains large, and monetary policy has been confusing, as the objective of boosting competitiveness and growth clashes with the need to control inflation and avoid excessive credit expansion.	它的经常项目赤字依然十分庞大，货币政策模糊不清，提振竞争力和增长的目标与控制通胀、避免信用过度扩张相矛盾。


Moreover, while rapprochement with Israel has become more likely, Turkey faces severe tensions with Syria and Iran, and its Islamist ruling party must still prove that it can coexist with the country’s secular political tradition.	此外，土耳其与以色列重新修好的可能性在增加，但它和叙利亚和伊朗关系紧张，其伊斯兰执政党仍需证明能够与该国的世俗政治传统共存。


In this fragile global environment, has America become a beacon of hope?	在这样一个脆弱的全球环境中，美国能成为希望的灯塔吗？ 美国正在出现不少积极的经济趋势：房地产在复苏；


The US is experiencing several positive economic trends: housing is recovering; shale gas and oil will reduce energy costs and boost competitiveness; job creation is improving; rising labor costs in Asia and the advent of robotics and automation are underpinning a manufacturing resurgence; and aggressive quantitative easing is helping both the real economy and financial markets.	亚洲劳动力成本的提高和机器人及自动化的出现让制造业看到了复兴的希望； 激进的量化宽松也在帮助实体经济和金融市场。


But risks remain.	但风险依然存在。


Unemployment and household debt remain stubbornly high.	失业和家庭债务依然极高。


The fiscal drag from rising taxes and spending cuts will hit growth, and the political system is dysfunctional, with partisan polarization impeding compromise on the fiscal deficit, immigration, energy policy, and other key issues that influence potential growth.	来自增税和减支的财政拖累将伤害增长，政治制度运转不良，党派两极分化阻碍着财政赤字、移民、能源政策和其他影响潜在增长的关键问题上的妥协。


In sum, among advanced economies, the US is in the best relative shape, followed by Japan, where Abenomics is boosting confidence.	总而言之，在发达国家中，美国处于最佳的相对位置，其次是正因安倍经济学获得信心提振的日本。


The eurozone and the UK remain mired in recessions made worse by tight monetary and fiscal policies.	欧元区和英国仍在衰退中挣扎，而衰退因紧缩的货币和财政政策而加深。


Among emerging economies, China could face a hard landing by late 2014 if critical structural reforms are postponed, and the other BRICs need to turn away from state capitalism.	在新兴经济体中，中国可能在2014年出现硬着陆，如果关键的结构性改革受到阻碍的话。 而其他金砖国家需要摆脱国家资本主义的束缚。


While other emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are showing more dynamism than the BRICs, their strength will not be enough to turn the global tide.	亚洲和拉美的其他新兴市场显示出比金砖四国更大的活力，但它们的强势不足以扭转全球趋势。


Surviving Motherhood	母爱长存


Mothers’ Day is upon us in many countries around the world.	在全世界许多国家，人们都在迎接母亲节的来临。


Children of all ages will give flowers, make breakfast, call home.	届时儿女们无论年纪多大，都要送一束鲜花给自己的妈妈，为妈妈做早餐，给家里的妈妈打个电话。


This is as it should be.	这一切都是顺理成章的。


On my travels around the world, particularly to its poorest and most troubled places, I have learned that it is mothers who keep families together — indeed, who keep entire societies intact. Mothers are society’s weavers.	在我所到过的世界各地，特别是那些最贫穷，最多灾多难的地方，我都会发现母亲是维系家庭的纽带——事实上，正是母亲维护着社会的完整性。


They make the world go round. Yet too often, the world is letting mothers down.	母亲是社会的缔造者，是这个世界得以运转的源动力，但这个世界却总是辜负了她们。


Becoming a mother – the rite of passage that Mothers’ Day celebrates – can carry a terrible burden of fear, anxiety, and loss for many women and their families.	对于许多女性及其家庭来说，成为一位母亲——这一母亲节所赞美的庄严仪式——却意味着要背负起恐惧，忧愁和牺牲的千斤重担。


Women such as Leonora Pocaterrazas, 21, who died in childbirth not long ago in the mountain village of Columpapa Grande, Bolivia, leaving her husband to raise three other children on his own.	不久前，在玻利维亚一个名为格林帕帕格兰德的小山村里，21岁的利奥诺拉·波卡特拉萨斯因难产去世，只留下她丈夫独力抚养三个孩子。


Or Sarah Omega, just 20, who spent 18 hours in labor at a hospital in Kenya. Her baby died, but she survived, despite terrible injuries, determined to speak out so that others would not have to endure the same ordeal.	而在肯尼亚，年仅20岁的沙拉·奥米加在医院里挣扎了18个小时，尽管她自己在极大的痛苦下死里逃生，但没能保住肚里孩子的生命。


“Life lost its meaning,” she told American lawmakers in 2008. Her testimony helped persuade Congress to commit more development aid to maternal health.	为了让其他女性不再承受这种痛苦的煎熬，她决定不再沉默，2008年，奥米加向美国的议员们痛陈“生命已经失去了意义”，也正是她的证词，说服了美国国会承诺向世界妇女生育健康事业提供更多的发展援助。


These are just two of the very personal stories behind the shocking statistics reported by the United Nations’ Population Fund.	以上两个事例来自联合国人口基金会所提交的令人震惊的统计报告，而类似的事例更是不胜枚举。


The figures show the chasm that exists between rich and poor countries where motherhood is concerned. It is a divide that the UN is determined to bridge.	这份报告中的数据还显示穷国和富国在对怀孕妇女的关注程度上存在极大差距，而联合国则下定决心要弥合这一鸿沟。


In the rich world, when a mother dies giving birth, we assume that something went wrong.	在发达国家，如果一位母亲因难产而死，我们会认为肯定是出了问题。


For women in the developing world, by contrast, dying in childbirth is simply a fact of life.	相反在发展中国家，难产死亡仅仅被简单地被视为生命中的一种常态。


In some countries, one woman in eight will die giving birth.	在部分国家，孕妇难产死亡的比例高达1/8。


Complications from pregnancy and childbirth are the leading cause of death among girls aged 15 to 19 worldwide.	而在世界范围内，由怀孕和分娩所引起的并发症已成为导致15到19岁女性死亡的首要原因。


In poor countries, pregnant women often must fend for themselves; they have no healthcare and nowhere to turn.	在贫穷国家中，怀孕妇女往往还得自谋生计。 她们得不到应有的医疗保健，也不知该向谁求助。


They may struggle to find proper nutrition and work long hours in factories and fields until the day they go into labor. They give birth at home, perhaps with the help of a midwife who most likely has no medical training.	孕妇们必须辛苦工作挣钱给自己补充营养，即便在临近分娩之际，她们还得在工厂和田间长时间劳作，且一般只能在没受过正规医疗训练的接生婆的帮助下在家分娩。


I myself was born at home, in a small village in the Korean countryside.	我自己就在韩国农村的家里呱呱落地的。


One of my childhood memories is asking my mother about a curious custom. Women who were about to give birth would gaze at their simple rubber shoes, which were kept by the back door.	我的其中一个童年记忆就是问妈妈为什么快要临盆的妇女都会死死盯着她们放在门后的胶鞋，这是我们那一个奇怪的习俗。


My mother explained that they were wondering if they would ever step into those shoes again.	妈妈告诉我，那是因为孕妇不知道她们是否还有机会再次穿上那双鞋。


Giving birth was so risky that they feared for their lives.	对她们来说，生孩子是要冒着生命危险的。


In the United States, just 100 years ago, women were roughly 100 times more likely to die in childbirth than they are today.	而在100年前的美国，妇女难产死亡的概率是今天的100倍。


We know how to save mothers’ lives.	幸好，我们已经知道如何挽救这些母亲的生命了。


Simple blood tests, a doctor’s consultation, and someone qualified to help with the birth can make a huge difference.	简单的血液测试，定期检查以及由合格的助产员来协助分娩就能起到明显的改善作用。


Add some basic antibiotics, blood transfusions, and a safe operating room, and the risk of death can almost be eliminated.	通过增加一些基本的抗生素药物，输血以及安全的手术室，我们甚至能够消除分娩死亡的威胁。


Recent figures show that we are making progress in helping women throughout the world.	最近公布的数据显示，在妇女援助问题上，我们正在全球范围内取得进步。


Yet we still have very far to go. Every year, hundreds of thousands of women die in childbirth, 99% of them in developing countries.	但要走的路还很长，每年，数以千计的女性因难产而死，其中99%都是来自于发展中国家。


That is why, as Secretary-General, I have spoken out for the needs of mothers and pregnant women at every opportunity.	而这也是为什么担任联合国秘书长的我利用一切场合为母亲和怀孕妇女的需求鼓与呼的原因。


Last month, the UN launched a joint action plan with governments, businesses, foundations, and civil-society organizations to advance this vital cause.	上个月，联合国与各国政府，企业，基金会以及市民组织共同启动了一个联合行动计划来推进这一重要的进程。


I am counting on people around the world to back us in ending this silent scandal.	我正致力于争取世界各地的人们支持来终结这一鲜为人知的阴暗面。


No woman should have to pay with her life for giving life.	任何女性都不应为了缔造新生命而付出生命的代价。


On Mothers’ Day, let us honor mothers around the world by pledging to do everything we can to make motherhood safer for all.	诚此母亲节来临之际，让我们宣誓要尽一切努力来保障所有妈妈的安全，以此来表达我们对母亲的敬意。


Surviving the Great Capital Flood	在巨大的资本洪流下生存


Despite recent financial market turbulence, the underlying dynamic of the world economy remains essentially unchanged.	尽管面临最近金融市场的动荡，世界经济的能动本质并没有改变。


The big issue is not how to deal with a downturn, but rather how to sustain today’s global boom and the capital flows that go with it.	现在的问题不在于怎样应对衰退，而是怎样维持今天全球经济的繁荣以及与之伴随的资本流动。


With the world expected to continue growing rapidly, there are excellent investment opportunities that will be funded only if capital continues to move into countries that can use it productively.	鉴于世界经济预期将持续快速增长，我们将面临极佳的投资机遇，但是这只有在资本能够继续流入能够富有成效地使用它的国家的情况才能实现。


The good news is that some countries have large savings that they want to invest in other countries, and are not put off by short-run market gyrations.	好消息是有些国家拥有庞大的储蓄，它们想把这些储蓄投进其他国家，并且不为市场短期摇摆所动摇。


In fact, our projections show that gross (or total) capital inflows to emerging markets will increase from US$400-500 billion just before the Asian crisis of 1997 to US$800-900 billion both in 2007 and 2008.	事实上，我们的推测显示，流入新兴市场的总资本额将从1997年亚洲金融危机前的4000-5000亿美元上升到2007年和2008年的8000-9000亿美元。


These inflows are expected to top US$1 trillion in the not-so-distant future.	这些资本流入预期将在不远的将来达到1万亿美元的高峰。


With 20-20 hindsight, it is clear that in 1997-98, weak bank regulation and corporate governance aggravated the depth of the economic contraction that followed the “sudden stop” of capital flows.	从事后来看，1997-1998年间薄弱的银行监管和公司治理加剧了经济紧缩的程度，随后带来了资本流入的“突然停滞”。


But what exactly does this imply for how middle- and low-income countries today should set their capital-account policies amid the current flood?	但是这对今天的中低收入国家面对资本的洪流应该制订怎样的资本账户政策到底有什么启示呢？


Should a country with weaknesses in its financial system simply avoid letting capital in?	一个金融体系还很薄弱的国家应该简单地拒绝资本进入吗？


While this has become more difficult, countries can still choose – at least to some degree – how open they are to capital inflows.	当这一点变得越来越困难，各国还可以至少在某种程度上选择对资本流入开放的程度。


But capital controls are not the only variable that determines financial openness.	但是资本控制并不是决定金融开放的唯一变量。


The evidence suggests that other factors such as the quality of economic and political institutions are at least as important in determining how much capital a country will attract.	证据显示其他因素，比如经济和政治机构的质量，在决定一个国家可以吸引多少资本的问题上至少是同等重要的。


But what determines the extent to which countries benefit from financial globalization?	但是到底是什么决定了国家从金融全球化中获益的程度呢？


A recent study by the IMF’s research department, using data from the past 30 years to assess the effects of financial globalization, conveys two messages.	最近由国际货币基金组织研究部门进行的一项研究用过去30年的数据来评估金融全球化的影响，传达了两条信息。


First, countries should be cautious about external financial liberalization when financial sector development and institutional quality are below key thresholds.	首先是，如果某个国家的金融部门的发展和机构质量低于重要门槛，就应该对外部的金融自由化保持谨慎。


In other words, don’t jump into the water unless you can swim.	换句话说，除非你已经会游泳了，否则就不要跳进河里。


Second, caution has costs: financial openness may itself catalyze improvements in fundamentals that enhance the benefits of globalization.	其次是谨慎是有代价的。 金融开放从其自身而言可以促进基础建设的完善从而强化全球化所带来的利益。


Capital controls, whatever their benefits in terms of mitigating the risks associated with volatile capital flows, are costly in a variety of ways.	资本控制不管在平息多变的资本流动所伴随的风险方面有怎样的利益，在许多方面是要付出代价的。


In other words, everyone really should learn to swim.	换句话说，每个人都应该学会游泳。


The first message will resonate with those who believe that a key lesson of the Asian crisis a decade ago is that countries opened themselves to certain types of flows – especially foreign currency debt – before they were ready.	第一条信息会引起那些相信10年以前的亚洲金融危机是某些国家在还没有准备好之前就向某些类型的资本流动尤其是外汇债务开放所带来的沉痛教训的人的共鸣。


The implication is that countries should first strengthen their domestic financial sectors and corporate governance, and only later open the capital account.	他们认为各国应该首先加强它们国内的金融部门和企业治理，然后再开放资本账户。


But even if capital controls could still fully insulate a country from the forces of financial globalization, such a goal would not be desirable.	但是即便资本控制依然能够把一个国家与金融全球化的力量完全隔绝开，这样的目标也不是人们所期望实现的。


Opening up to foreign direct investment and other non-debt capital flows may serve to boost economic growth without adverse side effects on macroeconomic volatility or a risk of crisis.	对外国直接投资和其他非债务资本流动开放可能能够促进经济增长，同时又不会���宏观经济的波动产生负面影响或者带来经济危机。


This is the case for countries with both relatively weak and strong fundamentals.	这对于那些同时拥有相对薄弱和强大的基础建设的国家尤其如此。


One conclusion, therefore, is for countries to be cautious about removing capital controls when they have not yet reached the relevant “safety” thresholds, but equally to stress the sizable net benefits for countries that exceed the thresholds.	因此结论就是尚未达到相对“安全”的门槛的国家对于解除资本控制应该保持谨慎，但是对于达到门槛的国家则应该尽量掘取可观的净利益。


The latter, in turn, provides strong incentives for countries to address institutional shortcomings so that they can reap the potential benefits of external financial liberalization.	后者回过头来又可以极大地刺激国家去解决机构存在的缺陷，以便它们可以挖掘外部金融自由化所带来的潜在利益。


Of more pressing immediate concern is the fact that capital is currently flowing to many countries regardless of whether they are ready to receive it.	当前存在的最大的担忧就是资本正在流入许多对于它们是否已经准备好接受它不闻不问的国家。


There are large current-account surpluses among emerging markets (a big change from 1997, when most emerging markets had deficits).	在新兴市场存在庞大的经常账户盈余（这与1997年时相比是巨大的变化，当时大部分新兴市场存在赤字）。


Indeed, several large oil exporters and Asian manufacturing exporters will have sizable surpluses for as long as we can forecast.	事实上，几个大的石油出口国和亚洲制造业的出口国在我们可预见的很长时间内都会有可观的盈余。


This capital has to be invested somewhere.	这些资本必须被投到其他地方去。


We think that capital from these countries is increasingly flowing not so much “uphill” to developed countries (as it did over the past five years), but rather “around the hill” to other emerging markets and poorer developing countries.	我们认为这些国家的资本不是在“向上”流入发达国家，而是越来越多地“在其周围”流动，流向了其他新兴市场以及更贫穷的发展中国家。


But is everyone really ready to receive such large amounts of capital and to carefully manage its macroeconomic impact?	但是每个国家都真的准备好接收如此庞大的资本以及小心地应对它对宏观经济所产生的影响了吗？


The risk today is not imminent crisis, but rather that the capital flows arising from the global boom will not be well managed, leading to the buildup of vulnerabilities.	今天的风险并不是即将到来的危机，而是全球经济繁荣所带来的资本流动如果得不到很好的管理，就会积聚起越来越高的脆弱性。


So the danger is that, when the party ends – and it is hard to know when that will be – a lot of mopping up will need to be done.	所以危险就是，很难说它什么时候会结束，当这场盛宴结束时就需要做一大堆的善后工作。


Earth Calling the Financial Sector	地球呼唤金融业


NEW YORK – Financial markets serve two crucial purposes: to channel savings toward productive investments, and to enable individuals and businesses to manage risks through diversification and insurance.	纽约—金融市场服务于两个基本目的：将储蓄引向生产性投资，以及让个人和企业通过多样化和保险管理风险。


As a result, the sector is essential to sustainable development, which represents unprecedented global-scale investment opportunities and risk-management challenges.	因此，金融业对于可持续发展来说至关重要，而可持续发展代表了前所未有的全球规模投资机会和风险管理挑战。


That is why, when world leaders meet this July in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, at the Conference on Financing for Development, the financial industry should be ready to offer practical, global solutions to the challenges associated with financing economic growth, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability.	正因如此，当全球领导人在今年7月齐聚埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴出席发展金融会议（Conference on Financing for Development）时，金融业应该做好准备提供务实的全球方案，解决经济增长、消除贫困和环境可持续性等方面的融资问题。


We have now entered the Year of Sustainable Development.	如今，我们已经步入了可持续发展年。


At three back-to-back global summits – the conference in Addis Ababa, September's meeting at the United Nations to adopt Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in December – 193 governments will attempt to ensure that global growth and poverty reduction continue within a safe natural environment.	在三次背靠背全球峰会上—��亚的斯亚贝巴会议、9月的联合国可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals，SDG）大会和12月的联合国巴黎气候变化会议——193个国家和地区的政府将试图确保全球增长和消除贫困能够在安全的自然环境中进行。


It will be a close call.	这将是千钧一发的时刻。


The global economy, despite all of the huge bumps in the road, is delivering aggregate annual growth of 3-4%, leading to a doubling of output every generation.	全球经济尽管前路曲折，每年仍能实现3—4%的总增长，每一代人都可以实现产出翻番。


Yet the global economy is not delivering sustainable growth in two basic senses.	但从两个基本点看，全球经济并没有产生可持续增长。


In many parts of the world, growth has been deeply skewed in favor of the rich; and it has been environmentally destructive – indeed, life-threatening when viewed on a century-long time scale, rather than according to quarterly reports or two-year election cycles.	在世界许多地方，增长强烈地向富人倾斜； 并且破坏着环境——事实上，用一百年的视角而不是用季报或两年的选举周期视角来看，增长甚至造成着生命威胁。


Climate change is the greatest of these environmental threats (though by far not the only one).	气候变化是这些环境威胁中最严重的一个（尽管目前并非唯一的威胁）。


Given the current trajectory of global fossil-fuel use, the planet's temperature is likely to rise by 4-6 degrees Celsius above its pre-industrial level, an increase that would be catastrophic for food production, human health, and biodiversity; indeed, in many parts of the world, it would threaten communities' survival.	按照当前全球化石燃料用量，地球气温有可能较前工业化水平上升4—6摄氏度，如此升幅将给粮食生产、人类健康和生物多样性带来灾难； 事实上，在世界许多地区，气候变化还将威胁到社会生存。


Governments have already agreed to keep warming below 2º Celsius but have yet to take decisive action toward creating a low-carbon energy system.	政府已经同意将升温幅度限制在2摄氏度以下，但至今仍未采取果断动作构建低碳能源体系。


The financial industry has a central role to play in catalyzing the global transition to inclusive, sustainable growth.	金融业在促进全球向包容性可持续增长转变方面起着核心作用。


After all, effective financial markets should convey accurate long-term information to savers and investors, thereby enabling businesses, pension funds, insurance pools, sovereign wealth funds, and others to allocate their resources to projects that provide solid long-term payoffs, and protect their savings from financial calamities.	毕竟，有效的金融市场应该为储蓄者和投资者提供准确的长期信息，从而让企业、养老基金、保险资金池、主权财富基金和其他资金将资源配置给提供稳健长期回报的项目、保护储蓄免受金融灾难影响。


Given climate change, that means accounting for whether, say, entire low-lying coastal areas or agricultural regions will be able to cope.	在气候变化的大背景下，这意味着考虑（比如）全部低海拔沿海地区或农业地区是否能够应对气候变化等问题。


Effective financial markets should also channel far more global saving from high-income countries with relatively weak long-term growth prospects to low-income regions with relatively strong growth prospects, owing to new opportunities to leapfrog development with smart, information-based infrastructure.	有效的金融市场还应该引导更多的全球储蓄从长期增长前景相对较弱的高收入国家流向增长前景相对较强的低收入地区，因为明智的、基于信息的基础设施发展能带来飞跃的机会。


Just a decade ago, hundreds of millions of rural Africans lived outside of the flow of global information.	仅仅十年前，数亿非洲农民还生活在全球信息流之外。


Now, with the rapid spread of broadband, once-isolated villages benefit from online banking, transport services, and ICT-enabled agribusiness and health and education programs.	如今，随着宽带的快速普及，曾经与世隔绝的村庄也能从在线银行、交通服务和基于ICT的农业企业和健康和教育项目中获益。


To seize the benefits of these new technologies at scale, and to avoid investments that aggravate cascading environmental crises, the finance industry will need to understand how the SDGs will reshape the investment landscape.	要上规模地抓住这些新技术带来的好处，并避免加剧连串环境危机的投资，金融业必须明白SDG将如何改变投资图景。


The time has come to embrace the concept of true long-term investing, which requires marshaling the capacity of institutionally mobilized capital to support investment opportunities that will secure a sustainable future for all.	如今，金融业必须接受真正长期投资的概念，真正长期投资要求将制度性资本动员能力用于支持能保障所有人的可持续未来的投资机会。


We know that enormous public and private investment is required for the transition toward a low-carbon economy, to win the global fight against poverty and disease, and to provide high-quality education and physical infrastructure worldwide.	我们知道，向低碳经济的转型、赢得与贫困和疾病的全球战争、在全球范围提供高质量教育和实体基础设施需要巨大的公共和私人投资。


Today's savvy investors, and the financial industry as a whole, need to look ahead, beyond today's market prices and policies to the market prices and policies of the future.	今天的精明投资者——以及作为一个整体的金融业——需要向前看，超越当前市场价格和政策，看到未来的市场价格和政策。


For example, today there is no global price on carbon to shift energy investment from fossil fuels to renewable sources; but we know that, in order to keep global warming below the 2º limit, such a price is coming soon.	比如，如今尚无碳的全球价格刺激全球投资从化石燃料转向可再生能源； 但我们知道，要想将全球变暖幅度限制在2℃界限内，这一价格很快就会出现。


As stewards of long-term capital, today's investors cannot ignore the coming carbon price and the shift toward low-carbon energy sources.	作为长期资本的管理者，今天的投资者决不可忽视即将到来的谈价格以及向低碳能源资源的变化。


That means devising practical ways to finance and encourage the required shift.	这意味着要找到务实方刺激所需要的变化并为其提供融资。


We believe that financial leaders want their industry to play its vital role in sustainable development, and we urge them to contribute actively to the unique opportunity that this year represents.	我们认为金融领导人希望金融业在可持续发展中起关键做哦用，我们也敦促他们积极参与到今年的独特机会中。


Today's financiers can choose to be remembered either for the 2008 crisis, over which they presided, or for their creative and resourceful efforts to encourage long-term sustainability.	今天的出资者可以做出选择，要么因为导致2008年危机被人记住； 要么因为创造性地大力助推长期可持续性而被人记住。


Assuming that they choose the latter, the financial industry should work with governments to create a global investment framework that includes appropriate incentives to take on the challenges of sustainable growth.	如果他们选择后者，金融业应该与政府合作建立一个全球投资框架，提供适当的激励面对可持续发展的挑战。


This implies the continued globalization of finance, which will be essential to allocate money from capital-rich regions to their poor, capital-scarce counterparts, as well as to develop local capital markets that can facilitate capital formation and protect countries from the vagaries of global sentiment.	这意味着持续的金融全球化——这是将资金从资本富裕地区引向资本稀缺的贫穷地区的关键，也是发展地方资本市场、促进资本形成和保护国家免受变幻莫测的全球情绪影响的关键。


Financial leaders should also involve citizens (the savers) in the journey to a fairer and more sustainable global economy.	金融领导人还应该在通往更公平、更加可持续的全球经济中将人民（和储蓄者）纳入进来。


That means encouraging responsible investing by adopting ever higher standards of stewardship – for example, by requiring companies' portfolios to meet certain sustainability targets.	这意味着通过采取更高管理标准——比如要求公司投资组合包含一定的可持续性目标——鼓励负责任的投资。


It also means contributing to a new framework for global infrastructure investment that steers resources away from environmentally destructive projects and reduces the wastage often associated with political patronage.	这也意味着参与建设全球基础设施投资新框架，让资源远离破坏环境的项目、减少常常与政治庇护有关的浪费。


Since the Industrial Revolution, finance has been a powerful enabler of human progress.	自工业革命以来，金融一直是人类进步的强大助推器。


The great task of this generation's financial leaders is to mobilize investment in the skills, infrastructure, and sustainable technologies that can end poverty, spread prosperity, and protect the planet.	这一代金融领导人的艰巨任务是动员对技能、基础设施和可持续技术的投资，它们可以终结贫困、推广繁荣、保护地球。


Those who act first will be the wiser – and wealthier – for it.	率先行动的人才是聪明人——也将成为富人。


Sustainability in the Trump Era	特朗普时代的可持续性


COPENHAGEN – The forces fighting global warming and battling to strengthen environmental protection must brace for heavy collateral damage as a result of Donald Trump’s victory in the United States’ presidential election.	哥本哈根—遏制全球变暖、加强环境保护的力量必须做好准备成为唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统竞选的附带牺牲品。


Judging by Trump’s campaign rhetoric, and by statements from his Republican allies, environmental protection in the US will be gutted in a frenzy of deregulation and inducements for domestic oil, coal, and gas producers.	从特朗普的竞选纲领及其共和党队友的发言看，美国环境保护遭受重创，监管将大幅减弱，美国国内石油、煤炭和天然气生产商将蠢蠢欲动。


Environmentalists are assessing the potential damage and developing strategies to avoid an onslaught driven by the most extreme anti-sustainability forces that have ever controlled Capitol Hill. The list of possible victims is long and depressing.	环保主义者正在评估潜在伤害，并制定战略避免控制国会山的极端反可持续性势力所带来的严重后果。


If worse comes to worst, America will become much less green, while dealing a crippling blow to international cooperation.	在最糟糕的情况下，美国将不再绿色，并且国际合作也将遭受重创。


At the recent climate conference meeting (COP 22) in Marrakesh, attention focused on the various ways a Trump administration might kill the climate agreement reached at COP 21 in Paris last year.	在最近的马拉喀什气候会议（COP22）上，人们的注意力集中在特朗普政府的众多可能扼杀去年在巴黎COP21上所形成的气候协定的行动上。


Death could come by assassination, with Trump tearing up the agreement.	协定可能“遇刺而亡”——被特朗普撕毁。


Or it could come by starvation, with the US refusing to do or pay its share.	或者也可能“饿死”，美国拒绝采取行动或贡献应有的比例。


Or it could be tortured to death, with the US asking everyone else to do more.	或者也可能“虐死”，美国要求其他所有国家做更多。


Surely, there are more options, but we are not compelled to contemplate them.	显然，还有别的选择，但我们不会被迫考虑它们。


We don’t need to – and we shouldn’t.	我们不需要——也不应该。


Very little is known about what the Trump administration will actually do.	特朗普政府最后到底会怎么做，没有人知道。


Some hope reason will prevail at least to some extent, particularly given that markets are now pushing the green transition.	有人希望理性至少能够取得一些胜利，特别是考虑到市场也在推动绿色转型。


Others fear it will not.	也有一些人担心不会如此。


But the simple fact is that we don’t know what Trump will do, because he doesn’t know, either.	但简单的事实是，我们不知道特朗普会怎么做，因为他也不知道。


His administration’s environmental policy is not carved in stone; it’s written in water, which always seeks the fastest route to the lowest point.	他的政府的环境政策不是铁板一块； 而是像水一样，总是以最快的路径流向最低点。


How deep the zealots and the coal lobby will be able to make that point depends partly on the barriers built by the rest of us.	狂热分子和煤炭游说集团在多大程度上抓住这一机会部分取决于我们其他人为此设置多大的障碍。


That means concentrating on mobilizing the forces that can strengthen the case for America to remain part of the global move toward environmental sustainability.	这意味着必须集中力量动员力量，论证美国应该留在全球通往环境可持续性的运动中。


This will not convince diehards in the new administration, but it may sustain more moderate forces.	这无法说服特朗普政府中的死硬派，但可能争取到比较温和的力量。


So, who is this “we” that must now take action?	因此，谁属于必须马上采取行动的“我者”？


First, “we” are US state governments and legislatures, nongovernmental organizations, local communities, and corporations.	首先，“我者”包括美国州政府和立法机关、非政府组织、地方社区和企业。


All need to galvanize Americans’ support for protecting local environments and contributing to global solutions.	它们都需要促使美国支持保护地方环境和全球解决方案。


Second, “we” are the international community: the almost 200 members of the United Nations that in 2015 adopted the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate agreement.	其次，“我者”还包括国际社会：2015年，近200个联合国成员通过了可持续发展目标和巴黎协定。


It is critically important that all UN members, whether big or small, insist that these global agreements still direct the world’s actions, regardless of what Trump does.	所有联合国成员，不论大小，都要坚信这些全球协定仍在引导世界的行动，不论特朗普怎么做。 这一点至关重要。


It must be abundantly clear to the incoming administration that the combined economic and environmental interest in pursuing the sustainability agenda will continue to push countries and companies alike in that direction.	即将履新的特朗普政府必须充分明白，追求可持续性日程的经济和环境利益总和仍将推动各国和各公司朝这个方向努力。


It is helpful that China has already said that it will not forego the opportunities inherent in the green transition, and that it will take the global lead if the US bows out.	中国已经表示它不会坐失绿色转型所隐含的机会，如果美国退出，它将承担全球领导之责，这是大有帮助的。


And China will not be alone.	中国不是一个人在战斗。


While many will regret the absence of American leadership, or even steps in the opposite direction by the Trump administration, the US is no longer strong enough to make all the difference.	许多国家将因为美国领导力的缺席、甚至特朗普政府反其道而行之而遗憾，但美国已不再能够决定一切。


Other countries will fill the gap and gain the benefits, and they should make that known loud and clear.	其他国家将填补它留下的空白并获得收益，而它们必须让所有人都明白和理解这一点。


Trump’s America can depart the train, which may well happen, but it cannot stop it.	特朗普的美国可能会“下车”——看起来可能性很大——但它无法让车停下。


The rest of the world will continue to move ahead.	世界其他国家将继续前进。


Corporate America and capital markets ought to reinforce that message, not as a political statement, but as a warning that a US economy that sacrifices the opportunities implied by the sustainability agenda will be less attractive to investors – and thus less prosperous.	美国公司界和资本市场应该强化这一信息，不是作为政治口号，而是作为一个警告——牺牲可持续性日程���来的机会的美国经济将失去对投资者的吸引力，因此也无法实现繁荣。


Last month, 365 major US companies and investors did just that, issuing a public appeal to Trump not to abandon the Paris climate agreement.	上个月，365家美国公司和投资者就这么做了，它们发表了致特朗普的公开诉求，要求他不要废除巴黎气候协定。


If Trump is to deliver more jobs and higher incomes to his voters, one vehicle to do so is to promote the green agenda of energy efficiency and renewables.	如果特朗普想要为选民实现更多就业和更高收入，一个方法就是促进能源效率和可再生能源的绿色日程。


The fourth component of the “we” who must act are engaged consumers worldwide.	“我者”的第四种成分是全世界范围内参与进来的消费者。


Marching in the streets shouting slogans at elected leaders will not make the difference.	在街头游行、对着当选领导人高喊口号无济于事。


Acting to organize consumers locally, nationally, regionally, and globally might.	采取行动将地方、全国、地区和全球消费者组织起来才有用。


The message needs to be sent not only by individual consumers, but also by organizations with the capacity to encourage and amplify the message: “We will not buy products and services defying the sustainability agenda, and we will give preference to quality products and brands that respect and promote sustainability.”	这一信息不但要通过个体消费者释放，也要通过有能力鼓动和放大这一信息的组织释放：“我们不不买与可持续性日程相悖的产品和服务，我们优先购买尊重和促进可持续性的高品质产品和品牌。


Whatever form it takes, the message should be direct and transparent, and it should also target US corporations taking advantage of any relaxation of domestic environmental and emission standards.	”不管采取怎样的形式，信息必须直接而透明，并且应该以从国内环境和排放标准放松中获益的美国公司为目标。


Most of us did not vote for Trump, and we are not obliged to follow his lead.	我们大部分人没有投票支持特朗普，我们也没有义务遵循他的领导。


It’s the other way around: the more strongly we organize to stay the course and reinforce action to halt global warming and promote sustainability, the more likely it will be that pragmatic members of the new majority can minimize the damage at home and abroad.	还有另一条路：我们越是强力地组织起来，坚持并执行遏制全球变暖和促进可持续性的行动，就越有可能让新多数中的务实者尽可能降低国内外的伤害。


The Year of Sustainable Development	可持续发展之年


NEW YORK – The year 2015 will be our generation’s greatest opportunity to move the world toward sustainable development.	纽约—2015年是我们这一代人让世界通往可持续发展的最佳机会。


Three high-level negotiations between July and December can reshape the global development agenda, and give an important push to vital changes in the workings of the global economy.	7月到12月间的三次高级别谈判可能重塑全球发展日程，并给全球经济运转的关键变化以重要的推力。


With United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s call to action in his report “The Road to Dignity,” the Year of Sustainable Development has begun.	联合国秘书长潘基文在他的《尊严之路》（The Path to Dignity）报告中呼吁我们采取行动，可持续发展之年已经开始。


In July 2015, world leaders will meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to chart reforms of the global financial system.	2015年7月，全球领导人将齐聚埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴，制定全球金融体系改革。


In September 2015, they will meet again to approve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to guide national and global policies to 2030.	2015年9月，他们将再次齐聚一堂批准指导2030年前国家和全球政策的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals，SDG）。


And in December 2015, leaders will assemble in Paris to adopt a global agreement to head off the growing dangers of human-induced climate change.	而在2015年12月，领导人们将在巴黎汇合，实施一项全球协议阻止人为造成的气候变化的危险的增加。


The fundamental goal of these summits is to put the world on a course toward sustainable development, or inclusive and sustainable growth.	这些峰会的基本目标是让世界走上可持续发展或可持续包容增长之路。 这意味着增长带来平均生活水平的提高；


This means growth that raises average living standards; benefits society across the income distribution, rather than just the rich; and protects, rather than wrecks, the natural environment.	意味着增长让收入分配各部分的人都受益而不是只对富人有好处； 这意味着保护而不是破坏自然环境。


The world economy is reasonably good at achieving economic growth, but it fails to ensure that prosperity is equitably shared and environmentally sustainable.	世界经济在实现经济增长方面颇为擅长，但它无法保证繁荣得到平等共享和环境可持续。


The reason is simple: The world’s largest companies relentlessly – and rather successfully – pursue their own profits, all too often at the expense of economic fairness and the environment.	原因很简单：世界最大公司毫无忌惮——并且相当成功地——追求自己的利润，常常以牺牲经济公平和环境为代价。


Profit maximization does not guarantee a reasonable distribution of income or a safe planet.	利润最大化不能保证收入的合理分配，也不能保证地球的安全。


On the contrary, the global economy is leaving vast numbers of people behind, including in the richest countries, while planet Earth itself is under unprecedented threat, owing to human-caused climate change, pollution, water depletion, and the extinction of countless species.	相反，全球经济把大量人民甩在身后（包括最富裕国家的人民），而拜人为导致的气候变化、污染、水耗竭和无数物种的灭绝所赐，地球本身也面临着前所未有的威胁。


The SDGs are premised on the need for rapid far-reaching change.	可持续发展目标基于快速深远的变化的需要。


As John F. Kennedy put it a half-century ago: “By defining our goal more clearly, by making it seem more manageable and less remote, we can help all people to see it, to draw hope from it, and to move irresistibly toward it.”	正如约翰·肯尼迪在半个世纪前所言，“更加清晰地定义我们的目标，让目标变得更加易于管理、不再可及，如此，我们可以帮助所有人看到这一目标，从这一目标中汲取希望，并坚持不懈地朝这一目标努力。


This is, in essence, Ban’s message to the UN member states: Let us define the SDGs clearly, and thereby inspire citizens, businesses, governments, scientists, and civil society around the world to move toward them.	”从本质上说，这也正是潘基文对联合国成员国们所要说的话：让我们清晰地定义可持续发展目标，从而启发全世界公民、企业、政府、科学家和公民社会朝这些目标努力。


The main objectives of the SDGs have already been agreed.	可持续发展目标的主要内容已经达成了一致。


A committee of the UN General Assembly identified 17 target areas, including the eradication of extreme poverty, ensuring education and health for all, and fighting human-induced climate change.	联合国大会的一个委员会指定了17个目标领域，包括消除极端贫困、确保全民教育和医疗，抗争人为气候变化等。


The General Assembly as a whole has spoken in favor of these priorities.	联合国大会总体支持这些当务之急。


The key remaining step is to turn them into a workable set of goals.	关键的剩余步骤是将它们转化为可执行的目标组。


When the SDGs were first proposed in 2012, the UN’s member said that they “should be action-oriented,” “easy to communicate,” and “limited in number,” with many governments favoring a total of perhaps 10-12 goals encompassing the 17 priority areas.	2012年，当可持续发展目标首次提出时，联合国成员称它们“应该是行动导向的”、“容易沟通的”、“数量有限的”，许多政府希望围绕17个当务之急领域指定总共10—12个目标。


Achieving the SDGs will require deep reform of the global financial system, the key purpose of July’s Conference on Financing for Development.	实现可持续发展目标需要深刻改革全球金融体系，这也是7月的发展金融会议（Conference on Financing for Development）的主旨。


Resources need to be channeled away from armed conflict, tax loopholes for the rich, and wasteful outlays on new oil, gas, and coal development toward priorities such as health, education, and low-carbon energy, as well as stronger efforts to combat corruption and capital flight.	我们需要引导资源远离武装冲突、富人纳税漏洞和花在石油、天然气和煤炭开发方面的浪费花销，投入医疗、教育、低碳能源以及更大力度的反腐和打击资本外逃活动等当务之急上。


The July summit will seek to elicit from the world’s governments a commitment to allocate more funds to social needs.	7月的峰会将试图让世界各国政府承诺配置更多资金用于社会需要。


It will also identify better ways to ensure that development aid reaches the poor, taking lessons from successful programs such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria.	该峰会还将研究确保发展援助投向穷人的更加办法，学习抗艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金（Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria）等成功计划的经验。


One such innovation should be a new Global Fund for Education, to ensure that children everywhere can afford to attend school at least through the secondary level.	一个此类创新应是新的全球教育基金（Global Fund for Education），以确保各地儿童都上得起学，至少上到初中水平。


We also need better ways to channel private money toward sustainable infrastructure, such as wind and solar power.	我们还需要更好的办法引导私人资金用于可持续基础设施（如风电和太阳能）。


These goals are within reach.	这些目标都是可以实现的。


Indeed, they are the only way for us to stop wasting trillions of dollars on financial bubbles, useless wars, and environmentally destructive forms of energy.	事实上，对我们来说，它们是唯一的可以停止将数万亿美元浪费在金融泡沫、无意义战争和环境破坏型能源上的办法。


Success in July and September will give momentum to the decisive climate-change negotiations in Paris next December.	7月和9月的成功将给明年12月的巴黎气候变化谈判带来动力。


Debate over human-induced global warming has been seemingly endless.	关于人为气候变暖的争论看起来无休无止。


In the 22 years since the world signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Rio Earth Summit, there has been far too little progress toward real action.	自22年前里约地球峰会（Rio Earth Summit）签署联合国气候变化框架公约（UN Framework Convention on Climate Change），这方面的真正行动进展少之又少。


As a result, 2014 is now likely to be the warmest year in recorded history, a year that has also brought devastating droughts, floods, high-impact storms, and heat waves.	因此，2014年也许将是有历史纪录以来最暖的一年，也是灾难性干旱、洪水、高影响风暴和热浪频发的一年。


Back in 2009 and 2010, the world’s governments agreed to keep the rise in global temperature to below 2° Celsius relative to the pre-industrial era.	2009年和2010年，世界各国政府同意将全球气温升高幅度限制在前工业时代水平以上2℃内。


Yet warming is currently on course to reach 4-6 degrees by the end of the century – high enough to devastate global food production and dramatically increase the frequency of extreme weather events.	但若以当前趋势计算，到本世纪末将升高4—6度——如此幅度的升温足以破坏全球粮食生产、极大增加极端天气事件的频率。


To stay below the two-degree limit, the world’s governments must embrace a core concept: “deep decarbonization” of the world’s energy system.	要想让升温幅度限制在2度以下，世界各国政府需要明白一个核心概念：世界能源体系的“深度去碳化”。


That means a decisive shift from carbon-emitting energy sources like coal, oil, and gas, toward wind, solar, nuclear, and hydroelectric power, as well as the adoption of carbon capture and storage technologies when fossil fuels continue to be used.	这意味着一个决定性转变，从排碳能源资源（如煤炭、石油、天然气）转变为风能、太阳能、核能和水电，若要继续使用化石燃料，也要采取碳捕捉和储存技术。


Dirty high-carbon energy must give way to clean low- and zero-carbon energy, and all energy must be used much more efficiently.	肮脏的高碳能源必须让位给清洁的低碳和零碳能源，并且所有能源的使用效率都必须提高。


A successful climate agreement next December should reaffirm the two-degree cap on warming; include national “decarbonization” commitments up to 2030 and deep-decarbonization “pathways” (or plans) up to 2050; launch a massive global effort by both governments and businesses to improve the operating performance of low-carbon energy technologies; and provide large-scale and reliable financial help to poorer countries as they face climate challenges.	必须包含2030年前国家“去碳化”和2050年深度去碳化“路径”（或计划）的承诺； 必须出台政府和企业联合进行的改善低碳能源技术运营表现得大规模全球计划；


The United States, China, the European Union’s members, and other countries are already signaling their intention to move in the right direction.	必须提供大量可靠金融援助帮助穷国面对气候挑战。 美国、中国、欧盟成员国和其他国家已经表现出有意向这一正确方向前进的信号。


The SDGs can create a path toward economic development that is technologically advanced, socially fair, and environmentally sustainable.	可持续发展目标可以造就一条通向技术先进、社会公平、环境可持续的经济发展的道路。


Agreements at next year’s three summits will not guarantee the success of sustainable development, but they can certainly orient the global economy in the right direction.	明年三大峰会上的协议无法保证可持续发展的成功，但显然能够引导全球经济通向正确方向。


The chance will not come along again in our generation.	这是我们这一代人一辈子只有一次的机会。


Data for Development	发展数据


NEW YORK – The data revolution is rapidly transforming every part of society.	纽约—数据革命正在快速改变社会的各个部分。


Elections are managed with biometrics, forests are monitored by satellite imagery, banking has migrated from branch offices to smartphones, and medical x-rays are examined halfway around the world.	选举用生物统计学来管理，森林用卫星影像监测，银行从分行支行转移到智能手机，医用X光片可以在地球另一端查看。


With a bit of investment and foresight, spelled out in a new report, prepared by the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), on Data for Development, the data revolution can drive a sustainable development revolution, and accelerate progress toward ending poverty, promoting social inclusion, and protecting the environment.	联合国可持续发展方案网络（SDSN）的新报告《发展数据》（Data for Development）指出，以少许远见做少许投资，数据革命就能驱动可持续发展革命，并加快人类社会朝结束贫困、促进社会包容和保护环境的方向进步。


The world’s governments will adopt the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at a special United Nations summit on September 25.	世界政府将在9月25日的联合国特别峰会上开始实施新的可持续发展目标（SDG）。


The occasion will likely be the largest gathering of world leaders in history, as some 170 heads of state and government adopt shared goals that will guide global development efforts until 2030.	这次会议也许是历史上最为盛大的世界领导人聚会，170个左右的国家和政府首脑将实施指引2030年前全球发展政策的目标。


Of course, goals are easier to adopt than to achieve.	当然，目标实施容易实现难。


So we will need new tools, including new data systems, to turn the SDGs into reality by 2030.	因此我们需要新数据系统在内的新工具，在2030年将SDG转变为现实。


In developing these new data systems, governments, businesses, and civil-society groups should promote four distinct purposes.	在开发新数据系统时，政府、企业和公民社会组织应该推进四个不同目的。


The first, and most important, is data for service delivery.	首先也是最重要的是服务提供数据。


The data revolution gives governments and businesses new and greatly improved ways to deliver services, fight corruption, cut red tape, and guarantee access in previously isolated places.	数据革命给了政府和企业全新的、大大改进的方法提供服务、打击腐败、减少官样文章、保证进入此前被孤立的领域。


Information technology is already revolutionizing the delivery of health care, education, governance, infrastructure (for example, prepaid electricity), banking, emergency response, and much more.	信息技术已经掀起了医疗、教育、治理、基础设施（如预付电力）、银行、紧急响应以及其他众多服务提供的革命。


The second purpose is data for public management.	第二个目的是公共管理数据。


Officials can now maintain real-time dashboards informing them of the current state of government facilities, transport networks, emergency relief operations, public health surveillance, violent crimes, and much more.	如今，官员可以用实时数据了解政府设施、交通网络、紧急救援行动、公共卫生监控、暴力犯罪和其他众多方面的状态。


Citizen feedback can also improve functioning, such as by crowd-sourcing traffic information from drivers.	公民反馈也可以改进���共管理运行，比如来自司机的众包交通数据。


Geographic information systems (GIS) allow for real-time monitoring across local governments and districts in far-flung regions.	地理信息系统让我们可以实时监控偏远广袤地区的当地政府和区划。


The third purpose is data for accountability of governments and businesses.	第三个目的是政府和企业问责。


It is a truism that government bureaucracies cut corners, hide gaps in service delivery, exaggerate performance, or, in the worst cases, simply steal when they can get away with it.	政府官僚喜欢走后门，隐瞒服务提供差距，夸大表现，（或者更糟糕地）在有机会的时候假公济私，这些都已是老生常谈。


Many businesses are no better.	许多企业也好不到哪里去。


The data revolution can help to ensure that verifiable data are accessible to the general public and the intended recipients of public and private services.	数据革命有助于确保公众及公共和私人服务的目标受众获得可证实的数据。


When services do not arrive on schedule (owing to, say, a bottleneck in construction or corruption in the supply chain), the data system will enable the public to pinpoint problems and hold governments and businesses to account.	当服务没有准时提供（比如因为供给链的建设瓶颈或腐败），数据系统就可以让公众指出问题，问责政府和企业。


Finally, the data revolution should enable the public to know whether or not a global goal or target has actually been achieved.	最后，数据革命应该让公众知道全球目标（goal or target）是否实际达到了。


The Millennium Development Goals, which were set in the year 2000, established quantitative targets for the year 2015.	2000年所制定的千年发展目标为2015年设定了量化目标。


But, although we are now in the MDGs’ final year, we still lack precise knowledge of whether certain MDG targets have been achieved, owing to the absence of high-quality, timely data.	但是，尽管如今已是千年发展目标的最后一年，我们仍缺少关于某些千年发展目标是否达到的准确信息，原因就在于无法获得高质量的即时数据。


Some of the most important MDG targets are reported with a lag of several years.	一些最重要的千年发展目标存在为期数年的报告时滞。


The World Bank, for example, has not published detailed poverty data since 2010.	比如，世界银行自2010年以来从未发布过详细贫困数据。


The data revolution can end the long lags and dramatically improve the quality of the data.	数据革命可以结束长期时滞，并极大地改善数据质量。


For example, rather than relying on household surveys every few years to calculate the mortality rate, systems of civil registration and vital statistics can collect mortality data in real time, with the added benefit of information on cause of death.	比如，户籍和人口动态统计可以实时收集死亡率数据，还可以附带死亡原因信息，因此不必每隔几年进行一次家庭调查以计算死亡率。


Likewise, poverty data could be collected at relatively low cost and with much higher frequency than today, by using smart phones to replace paper-based surveys.	类似地，用智能手机取代纸面调查的话，贫困数据可以比今天相对更低的成本和高得多的频率收集。


Some analysts have suggested that the use of mobile phones could bring down the cost of surveys by up to 60% in some East African countries over a ten-year period.	一些分析家认为，移动电话的使用可以在十年内让一些东非国家的调查成本下降多达60%。


Private companies, such as Gallup International, could work alongside the more traditional public-sector statistical offices to accelerate data collection.	盖洛普国际（Gallup International）等私营公司可以与传统公共统计部门合作加快数据收集。


The data revolution offers a breakthrough opportunity for service delivery, management, accountability, and validation, thanks to a dense ecosystem of technologies that collect information in multiple ways: remote sensing and satellite imagery, biometric data, GIS tracking, facilities-based data, household surveys, social media, crowd-sourcing, and other channels.	数据革命为服务提供、管理、问责和评估提供了突破机会，这要归因于以多种方式收集信息的稠密技术生态系统，包括遥感和卫星影像、生物统计数据、地理信息系统追踪、基于设施的数据、家庭调查、社交媒体、众包以及其他各种渠道。


To support the SDGs, such data should be publicly available for all countries at high frequency – at least within one year for key targets, and in real time in sectors where service delivery is vital (health, education, and the like).	要支持SDG，这些数据应该以高频方式向所有国家公开——至少关键目标的数据每年公开一次，服务提供至关重要的部门（卫生、教育等）则要实时公开。


Private companies, including telecoms, social marketing companies, systems designers, survey firms, and other information providers, should all be integrated into the data “ecosystem.”	私营公司，包括通讯公司、社会营销公司、系统设计公司、调查公司和其他信息提供商，应该都整合进数据“生态系统”中。


In preparing the new report, the SDSN teamed up with several partner agencies to prepare a “needs assessment” on how to launch the data revolution for the SDGs.	在准备新报告时，SDSN和不少兄弟机构合作准备了关于如何启动SDG数据革命的“需求评估”。


The report offers an action plan that builds on partnerships between national statistical systems and private information firms and other non-governmental data providers.	报告给出了一个建立在国家统计系统和私营心系企业及其他非政府数据提供商之间的合作的基础上的行动计划。


As the report emphasizes, low-income and lower-middle-income countries will need financial help to create these new data systems.	报告强调，低收入和中低收入国家需要金融援助以建立新数据系统。


While the cost estimates are necessarily provisional, especially in this era of disruptive technological change, the new study suggests that proper data systems for the SDGs will require at least $1 billion per year to cover all of the 77 lower-income countries.	尽管成本估计只能是临时性的，特别是在这个破坏性技术变革时代，但新研究表明，为SDG建立合适数据系统每年至少需要10亿美元以覆盖所有77个较低收入国家。


Of that sum, around half should be financed through official development assistance, which implies an increment of at least $200 million per year above current donor flows.	其中大约一半应该通过官方发展援助融资，这意味着现有援助流规模至少需要每年增加2亿美元。


Now is the time for such an increased commitment of funding.	应该增加资金承诺。


In July, the world will assemble in Addis Ababa for the International Finance for Development Conference, and just weeks after that, at UN Headquarters to adopt the SDGs in late September.	7月，世界将在亚的斯亚贝巴召开国际发展金融会议，几周后，9月底，联合国总部将启动SDG。


With quick action before these two summit meetings, the world will be ready to launch the SDGs with the data systems that they need to succeed.	世界应该在这两次峰会前迅速采取行动，做好准备为SDG提供其成功所必须的数据系统。


Harnessing Disruption for Sustainability	让破坏有利于可持续发展


GENEVA – After decades of reluctance on the part of world leaders, a rapid, smooth, and purposeful transition toward sustainable development seems unlikely.	日内瓦—几十年来世界领导人的不情不愿让快速、平稳、有目的地朝可持续发展的转型看起来已不再可能。


Indeed, throughout human history, such major changes have more often been forced upon the world by circumstances, with leaders focusing on shorter-term concerns like political turmoil or economic stagnation until serious disruptions to their economies and societies arise.	事实上，纵观人类历史，如此巨大的变化常常是环境迫使世界做出改变，而领导人总是专注短期考虑，如政治动荡和经济停滞等，直到他们的经济和社会面临严重破坏。


But this need not be the case.	但这并不是宿命。


Policymakers can develop solutions that leverage immediate challenges to guide the shift toward a more sustainable, inclusive future.	决策者可以制定方案，利用当下的挑战引导向更加可持续、更加包容的未来的转变。


This year, which has been dubbed “the year of sustainable development,” provides an ideal opportunity in this regard.	今年是“可持续发展之年”，为我们提供了这一方面的理想机会。


At high-level meetings in Sendai, Japan, in March and in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in July, world leaders will pursue closer collaboration on disaster-risk reduction and on mobilizing finance for development, respectively.	在3月份的日本仙台高级别会议和7月份的埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴高级别会议上，世界领导人将追求更紧密地合作以降低灾难风险（仙台）、动员发展金融（亚的斯亚贝巴）。


In September, the United Nations will launch its Sustainable Development Goals, to serve as the framework for global development efforts until 2030.	9月份，联合国将发布可持续发展目标，作为2030年前全球发展措施框架。


Moreover, global climate negotiations will reach a critical point in December, when world leaders meet for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris.	此外，12月还将迎来全球气候谈判临界点。 世界领导人将齐聚巴黎联合国气候变化会议。


And the agendas of the forthcoming G-7 and G-20 summits will both feature measures to combat climate change.	而即将到来的G-7和G-20峰会日程也将纳入抵御气候变化的措施。


Such multilateral frameworks catalyze progress.	这些多边框架能促进进步。


Indeed, agreements like last year’s deal between China and the United States to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions – not to mention initiatives to mobilize business, such as We Mean Business – are unlikely to happen without them.	事实上，没有它们，去年的中美减少碳排协议等协议——更不用说“我们需要商业”（We Mean Business）等动员商界的计划了——就不可能发生。


Nonetheless, as Mancur Olson famously observed, it is the individual interests of the parties that drive collective success.	尽管如此，如奥尔森（Mancur Olson）的著名论断所言，推动集体成功的各方的个体利益。


For example, China’s recent embrace of sustainable development, which will serve the planet’s long-term interests, is driven by the domestic challenges posed by air, water, and land pollution.	比如，中国最近提出要可持续发展，这符合地球的长期利益，推动它这样做的是空气、水和土地污染所造成的国内挑战。


Rather than agonize over growing disruptions, China’s government has decided to hasten the shift toward a dynamic green economy, even if it means stranding assets and allowing businesses that do not suit China’s shifting needs to fail – an approach that will deliver a long-term competitive advantage.	中国政府没有选择在不断增长的破坏中沉沦，而是决定加速向充满活力的绿色经济转型，即使这意味着资产搁置和放任不适合中国的变化的需要的企业破产——这一方针将带来长期竞争优势。


The rest of the world should recognize the benefits of allowing short-term disruptions to drive, not distract from, the sustainability agenda.	世界其他国家也应该认识到让短期破坏推动而不是制约可持续发展日程的好处。


One area where such an opportunity is already apparent is financial reform.	一个已经显现出这一机会的领域是金融改革。


Today’s historically low interest rates should encourage long-term investment, as they lower the current cost of capital.	目前的历史低利率应能鼓励长期投资，因为这降低了当前的资本成本。


But new financial regulatory frameworks – such as Basel III, which aims to reduce risk in the banking sector, and Solvency II, the European Union’s equivalent for insurance companies – are inadvertently discouraging such investment.	但新金融监管框架——如旨在降低银行业风险的巴塞尔III和欧盟降低保险公司风险的偿付能力II（Solvency II）——在无意中制约了这类投资。


This undermines both short-term efforts to boost employment and the long-term objective of sustainable growth.	这有碍于短期提振就业的措施和可持续发展的长期目标。


It does not have to be this way.	这并不是宿命。


As the UN Environment Programme emphasized in a briefing at the World Economic Forum in Davos, saving the financial sector from itself can accelerate the transition to sustainable development.	联合国环境署在达沃斯世界经济论坛的一份简报中强调，拯救金融业于其自身可以加速向可持续发展的转变。


For example, effective risk management and longer-term policy objectives would be better aligned if regulators reduced capital requirements for banks that extend loans for climate-resilient and environmentally friendly investments.	比如，如果监管者降低向环境恢复力高、环境友好型投资项目的贷款的资本要求足，有效的风险管理和更长期的政策目标就能更好地协调。


Similarly, central banks’ inflated balance sheets – the result of short-term crisis-response measures – could, through refinancing arrangements, be used to boost green investment.	类似地，中央银行资产负债表的不断膨胀——短期危机响应措施带来的结果——可能通过再融资安排用于提振绿色投资。


Further quantitative easing, such as by the European Central Bank, could be directed toward greener asset-backed securities.	进一步的量化宽松（如欧洲央行的措施）可以被引向更加绿色的资产支持证券。


Even perverse signals can be mitigated and leveraged.	甚至消极信号也可以缓和和利用。


Instead of allowing low oil prices to encourage consumption, governments could take the opportunity to impose a small, politically acceptable energy or carbon-equivalent tax – an approach advocated by many economists and development specialists, including Jeffrey Sachs, Lawrence Summers, and Kemal Derviş.	政府不应该放任低油价鼓励消费，而是可以抓住机会部署政治上可行的小规模能源或碳等价税——许多经济学家和发展专家，包括杰弗里·萨克斯（Jeffrey Sachs）、劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）和克马尔·德尔维什（Kemal Derviş）都支持这样做。


Such a tax would not only sustain the price signals needed to steer societies onto a more sustainable energy path; it would also provide revenues that could be channeled toward employment creation and long-term green investments, thereby leveraging private capital.	这一税收不但能维持引导社会走上更加可持续的能源路径的价格信号； 还可以提供收入并引导这些收入用于就业创造和长期绿色投资，从而撬动私人资本。


Likewise, central banks’ macro-prudential activities, which evolved largely in response to the global financial crisis, could focus on longer-term risks to the financial sector, including the cumulative impact of climate change, environmental policies, and disruptive clean technologies.	类似地，中央银行的宏观审慎行为——大部分是为应对全球金融危机而采取的——可以专注于金融业的长期风险，包括气候变化、环境政策和破坏性清洁技术的累积影响。


Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has taken the lead in initiating a prudential review of the impact of climate change on the United Kingdom’s insurance sector.	英格兰银行行长马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）率先采取了关于气候变化对英国保险业的影响的审慎评估。


Other institutions – including multilateral bodies like the Bank of International Settlements, the Financial Stability Board, and the G-20 – should follow suit.	其他机构——包括国际清算银行、金融稳定委员会和G-20等多边机构——也应该效仿。


What the world needs now are leaders who are willing to bridge the gap between daunting short-term demands and desirable long-term outcomes.	如今，世界需要的是愿意弥合萎靡的短期需求和值得追求的长期结果之间的差距的领导人。


Instead of remaining preoccupied with the present, world leaders should view 2015 as an opportunity to ensure that today’s disruptive crises provide the foundation for tomorrow’s sustainable prosperity.	世界领导人不应该被当下缠住，而是应该讲2015年视为一次确保今天的破坏性危机为明天的可持续繁荣打下基础的机会。


Seize the Sustainable Future	抓住可持续未来


BEIJING – For the first time in years, a healthy dose of optimism seems to be in order.	北京—多年来第一次，健康的乐观情绪占据了上风。


The global economy – a few trouble spots aside – is finally moving beyond the financial crisis.	全球经济虽然还有一些麻烦点，但终于开始走出金融危机。


Technological breakthroughs have put renewable energy on a competitive footing with fossil fuels.	技术突破让可再生能源可以与化石燃料一决高下。


And the international community seems poised to forge critical agreements on sustainable development and the fight against climate change.	国际社会也似乎正在朝关键性可持续发展协定努力以对抗气候变化。


And yet the risk remains that these gains will be frittered away, as policymakers, business leaders, and investors focus on short-term concerns at the expense of looming threats to the global economy.	但这些进展仍有昙花一现的可能，因为决策者、商业领袖和投资者着眼于短期考虑而不顾全球经济所面临的威胁。


If we are to lock in our progress, we will need to address the failures of our financial system at their roots, putting in place standards, regulations, and practices that make it compatible with the long-term needs of a more inclusive, sustainable economy.	如果我们要保持进步，就需要从根源解决金融体系失灵问题，采取使其与更包容、更可持续的经济的长期需要相容的标准、监管和行动。


This year, the world has the potential to do just that.	今年，世界有望在这方面有所作为。


The transition to a green economy now seems to be a certainty, rather than a hopeful aspiration, as growing public acceptance and technological advances make investments in clean energy increasingly practical.	如今，向绿色经济的转型似乎已经确定无疑而不再是有希望的渴望，日益增加的公众接受程度和技术进步让清洁能源投资变得越来越务实。


In 2014, global investment in renewable energy increased by 17%, even as oil prices plummeted, according to a recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).	据联合国环境署（UNEP）的最新报告，2014年，尽管石油价格暴跌，全球可再生能源投资仍然增长了17%。


The trend was driven by a boom in solar energy in China and Japan and increasing European investment in off-shore wind power.	这一趋势背后的推动力是中国和日本太阳能产业的繁荣和欧洲离岸风能投资的增加。


Stock exchanges from Shanghai to São Paulo have established reporting requirements to inform investors about how companies are weaving sustainability into their strategies.	从上海到圣保罗，证券交易所纷纷制定了让投资者了解公司如何将可持续性纳入经营战略的披露要求。


Green bonds have taken off, with upwards of $40 billion issued in 2014, and they are likely to become only more popular as clearer standards and regulations are established.	绿色债券开始发行，2014年发行量超过400亿美元，而随着更明确的标准和监管的实施，绿色债券有望变得更加流行。


Even central banks have turned their attention to the environment.	甚至中央银行也开始将注意力转向环境。


The People’s Bank of China has joined with UNEP to identify practical steps to ensure “green” financial-market reform, and the Bank of England (BoE) has initiated a prudential review of the systemic risks posed by climate change to the United Kingdom’s insurance sector.	中国人民银行联合UNEP制定了务实措施确保“绿色”金融市场改革，英格兰银行也对气候变化给英国保险业带来的系统性风险进行了审慎评估。


September will mark the launch of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, the world’s first universally adopted, measurable targets for ending poverty and hunger while protecting the environment and the planet’s natural-resource base.	9月，联合国将发布可持续发展目标，这是世界首套获得一致赞同的、在结束贫困和饥饿的同时豹属环境和地球自然资源基础的可衡量目标。