The downturn was a distinctive balance-sheet recession that caused sizeable declines in household wealth and necessitated painful deleveraging.	此次衰退是一次与众不同的资产负债表衰退，导致了家庭财富的大量缩水以及不得不进行的痛苦的去杠杆化过程。


Consistent with recoveries from such recessions, demand has grown slowly, despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, and that explains why the unemployment rate remains high.	与从此类衰退���复苏相一致的是，尽管实施了前所未有的财政和货币刺激，但需求增长缓慢，这也解释了为何失业率一直维持高位。


Indeed, businesses cite uncertainty about the strength of demand, not uncertainty about regulation or taxation, as the main factor holding back job creation.	事实上，企业担心的是需求强度的不确定性，而不是监管或税收的不确定性，这才是妨碍就业创造的主要因素。


Public-sector demand has also contracted, owing to state and local governments’ deteriorating budgets.	由于州和地方政府预算状况恶化，公共部门需求也大大萎缩。


As a result, public employment, which usually rises during recoveries, has been a major contributor to high unemployment during the last three years.	结果，通常应在复苏期间有所上升的公共就业在过去三年里成了高失业的主要原因之一。


Despite a modest uptick in the last three months, government employment is 569,000 below its June 2009 level – a 30-year low as a share of the adult civilian population.	尽管近三个月以来情况略有好转，但政府就业仍比2009年6月的水平低了569 000个岗位——用占成年公民总数比例来衡量，则为30年最低水平。


According to Hamilton Project calculations, if this share were at its 1980-2012 average of about 9.6% (it was actually higher between 2001 and 2007), there would be about 1.4 million more public-sector jobs and the unemployment rate would be around 6.9%.	据汉密尔顿计划（Hamilton Project）的计算，若这一比例达到1980—2012年的平均水平9. 6%（事实上，2001—2007年的水平比较高），则公共部门就业可以增加140万个左右，失业率将降至6.


Recent reports suggest that there are more than three million unfilled job openings, and about 49% of employers say that they have difficulty filling positions, especially in information technology, engineering, and skilled trades.	最新报告显示，存在300万以上的岗位空缺，大约49%的雇员说难以胜任岗位，特别是在信息技术、工程和高技能行业。


This has fanned speculation that a “mismatch” between workers’ skills and employers’ needs is a significant factor behind the elevatedunemployment rate.	这引起了人们的猜测——工人技能和雇主需求之间的“不匹配”是失业率节节攀升的重要因素。


But there is scant evidence to support this view.	但很少有证据支持这一观点。


The relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate is consistent with patterns in previous recoveries.	失业率和岗位空置率之间的关系与前几次衰退并无区别。


Nor is there anything unusual about the size of mismatches between job openings and worker availability by industry.	从各行业看，职位空缺和工人之间的不匹配程度也并无反常之处。


Such industrial mismatches become larger during recessions, reflecting greater churn in the labor market as workers move between shrinking and expanding sectors; but they decline as the economy recovers.	此类产业不匹配在衰退期间有所恶化，反映的是随工人在衰退和扩张部门之间的流动而产生劳动市场的波动； 会随着经济的复苏而减弱。


This pattern also characterizes the current recovery, and recent data suggest that mismatches between the demand and supply of labor by industry are back to pre-recession levels.	这一模式在此次复苏中也出现了，最新的数据表明，各行业劳动力供求不匹配程度已经回落到了衰退前水平。


But, as the US economy recovers, technological change is accelerating, fueling demand for more skills at a time when the workforce’s educational-attainment levels have plateaued.	但是，随着美国经济的复苏，技术变迁也在加速，因此对技能的需求也更高了，而与此同时，劳动力受教育程度却达到了趋于稳定的水平。


This is the real skills gap that existed before the Great Recession, and it is getting worse over time.	实际技能的差距在大衰退之前便已存在，并随着时间的推移而恶化。


The gap manifests itself in much higher unemployment rates for high-school educated workers than for college-educated workers at every stage of the business cycle.	这一差距会自我强化，其表现形式是在商业周期的每个阶段，高中文化程度工人的失业率都高于大学文化程度工人。


The gap also shows up in significant – andrising – inequality between the earnings of high-school educated workers and those with a college degree or higher.	这一差距还体现在高中教育程度工人和大学及以上教育程度工人严重——且仍在不断恶化——的收入不平等上。


Earnings gains have been especially strong for those with tertiary degrees, while the real wages of high-school educated workers, especially men, have fallen sharply.	拥有研究生学位者的收入增长尤为强劲，而高中文化程度工人（特别是男性）的实际工资却大幅下降了。


It is becoming increasingly difficult for workers with low levels of educational attainment to find high-paying jobs in any sector, even when the economy is operating near full capacity.	教育程度较低的工人越来越难以找到高薪岗位，在每个行业都是如此，尤其是当经济以接近充分产能的水平运行的时候。


The US was the world leader in high school and college graduation rates for much of the twentieth century.	20世纪的大部分时间里，美国的高中和大学毕业率一直稳居世界第一。


Today it ranks in the middle of the OECD countries.	如今，美国只位列经合组织国家中游水平。


A major factor behind that relative decline has been the US school system’s failure to ensure high-quality education for disadvantaged Americans, particularly children from poor, minority, and immigrant households.	这一相对衰落背后的原因是美国教育体系不能保证对后进美国人的高质量教育，特别是对来自穷人、少数族裔和移民家庭的孩子。


According to the most recent census, about one-quarter of children under the age of six live in poverty.	最新的人口普查表明，约四分之一六岁以下儿童生活在贫困中。


They are less likely to have access to early-childhood programs that prepare them for school, and are more likely to attend schools that have high student/teacher ratios and that cannot attract and retain skilled teachers.	他们不太可能获得为上学做准备的早教机会，他们入学的学校往往学生/教师比例较高，难以吸引和留住高水平教师。


As a result of these and other problems, the average American secondary-school student receives inadequate preparation in core subjects such as writing, mathematics, and analytical reasoning, which in turn reduces college enrollment and completion rates.	这些和其他问题导致了普通美国中学生在写作、数学和分析推理等课程上的准备不足，而这反过来降低了大学入学率和毕业率。


The US experience is consistent with OECD evidence that students from countries with greater income inequality score lower on academic achievement tests.	美国的经验和经合组织关于收入不平等性更大国家的学生在学业测试中分数较低的证据相一致。


And a recent study by McKinsey suggests that the gaps in educational opportunity and attainment by income impose the equivalent of a permanent recession of 3-5% of GDP on the US economy.	麦肯锡的最新研究表明，因收入导致的教育机会和程度差距造成美国经济永久性地衰退了GDP的3—5%。


To address the skills gap, the US must boost the educational attainment of current and future workers.	为了弥补技能差距，美国必须提高当前和未来工人的受教育程度。


That means investing more in education at all levels – in early-childhood education programs, elementary and secondary schools, community colleges, trade-school programs for specific jobs in specific sectors, and financial aid for higher education.	这意味着增加对各水平教育的投资——早教、小学、中学、社区学院、针对特定行业特定职位的职业教育，以及对高等教育的财务支持。


Above all, it means addressing the income disparities in educational opportunity and attainment.	最重要的是，这意味着纠正教育机会和程度的收入不平等问题。


A Scientific Outlook for a Post-Factual World	后事实时代的科学前景


VIENNA – We have entered a disturbing new era.	维也纳—我们已经进入了一个令人不安的新时代。


The sheer volume of false utterances and outright lies spewed during the United States’ presidential election campaign implies a growing disdain for factual knowledge, as does the proliferation of fake news disseminated without journalistic filters on social-media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.	美国总统选战所出现的大量虚言假语和彻头彻尾的谎言表明我们越来越蔑视真实的知识，在Facebook和Twitter等社交媒体上未经新闻过滤便“满天飞”的假新闻亦然。


By the time of the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum in June, experts had already been deemed dispensable.	在6月份英国退欧公投上，专家便已经被认为可有可无。


With elites everywhere being accused of neglecting “real” people, frustration and anger are now trumping fact-based deliberation.	如今，各国精英都被指责忽视了“真正”的人民，失望和愤怒压倒了基于事实的深思熟虑。


In a climate of anxiety, confusion, and nostalgia for a fantastical past, raw emotion prevails.	在焦虑、困惑和怀念梦幻般的过去的气候下，原始冲动脱颖而出。


The rules of public discourse become obsolete, and the open horizon of possible futures is narrowed to a single escape route that fear-mongers portray as the only way forward.	公共讨论的规则被废弃，可能的未来的开放视野缩窄为一条狭窄的逃生通道，而恐慌贩子还说这是唯一的出路。


This is a poor way to cope with uncertainty, and it stands in striking contrast to the methods of science and free inquiry.	这绝不是应对不确定性的好办法，也与科学和自由研究的方法格格不入。


In science, uncertainty is a powerful incentive for acquiring knowledge; indeed, it is the primary motivation for research, which is inherently uncertain.	在科学中，不确定性是人们获取知识的强大激励，事实上，它也是研究的主要动机，研究天然是不确定的。


New discoveries often occur during open-ended explorations of the unknown.	新发现往往来自对未知的开放性探索。


Scientists conducting fundamental research cannot predict what they will find or when they will find it.	从事基础研究的科学家无法预测他会发现什么、会在什么时候发现它。


Many important discoveries are a result of serendipity: researchers find something unexpected that they were not looking for, but which they quickly recognize as significant.	许多重要发现都是意外的结果：研究者发现了一些并非他们寻找目标的意外的东西，但马上认识到这些发现的重要性。


The scientific community rigorously seeks consensus about knowledge produced so far, but it knows that there is still much more to be discovered.	科学界严格地寻找目前所产生的知识的共识，但科学界知道，仍有许多东西有待发现。


All scientific knowledge is therefore preliminary, and will be extended, complemented, or replaced by new knowledge.	因此，所有科学知识都是预备性的，它们可以得到扩展、完善，或被新知识取代。


At the same time, science and technology have enabled us to anticipate risks and identify additional unknowns.	与此同时，科学和技术使我们能够预测风险，认识更多的未知。


So, the more we know, the more we comprehend what we do not know.	因此，我们知道的越多，就越理解我们不知道什么。


But, whereas the scientific community embraces uncertainty, remains ever curious, and is confident about the power of science and technology to create new opportunities for mankind’s collective future, other segments of society do not necessarily share this outlook.	但是，尽管科学界坦然接受不确定性，保持着一贯的好奇心，并坚信科学和技术的力量能为人类的集体未来创造新机遇，但社会的其他部分未必同意这一观点。


And it behooves scientists to understand why.	科学家必须知道为什么会这样。


There can be a fine line between experts’ prerogative to make technical judgments and non-experts’ prerogative to assess the consequences of those judgments.	在专家做出技术判断的特权和非专家评估这些判断的后果的特权之间只有一线之隔。


But between these positions lies a vast range of unintended consequences.	但在其中存在着各种意料外的后果。


When people translate knowledge into action, they initiate new interactions within complex systems, without necessarily knowing what the final consequences of those actions will be.	当人们将知识转化为行动时，他们就启动了复杂系统的新互动，而他们未必知道这些行动的最终结果将是怎样。


Humans have evolved to understand simple cause-and-effect relationships.	进化让人们能够理解简单的因果关系。


What we need now are more refined mathematical tools and simulation models to understand the hidden uncertainties that can emerge from interactions in complex social and natural systems.	我们现在需要的是更加精致的数学工具和仿真模型来理解在复杂的社会和自然系统的互动中可能产生的隐藏的不确定性。


Likewise, humans have evolved to crave certainty.	类似地，进化让人类渴望确定性。


Past civilizations adopted divinatory practices in an effort to know the future.	古代文明用占卜来了解未来。


But, since then, humanity has made impressive strides away from believing in a predetermined destiny, and toward actively shaping the human condition.	但是，至此以来，人类取得了令人瞩目的进步：不再相信命中注定，转而积极改变人类环境。


Science and technology were crucial to this progress, but they were not sufficient.	科学和技术是这一过程的关键，但仍不充分。


We also needed new ideas about the scope of human agency.	我们还需要关于人类能动性范围的新思想。


Encouraged by the achievements of modern science, we came to perceive the future as being radically open.	受现代科学成就的鼓舞，我们已经认为未来是非常开放的。


Even though path dependencies, incomplete information, and cognitive biases can still frustrate human actions, we need no longer assume that past experiences must determine future outcomes.	尽管路径依赖、不完全信息和认知偏见仍有可能挫败人类行动，但我们无需认为过去的经验必然决定了未来的结果。


The future is inherently uncertain, which means that the present always could have turned out different than it has.	未来天然不确定，这意味着现在原本可能以不同的面貌出现。


Uncertainty is a cunning force in nature and lived experience.	不确定性是一种性质狡猾的力量和活的经验。


Its logic is always at work as we encounter constantly changing circumstances.	它的逻辑永远在起作用，因为我们不断地遇到变化的环境。


It evolves and manifests itself in different ways: sometimes it challenges our assumptions and subverts our expectations; often, it takes us by surprise.	它以不同方式演变和表现：有时它挑战我们的假设，打碎我们的期望； 通常它给我们带来意外。


Because of uncertainty, our achievements are not always what we intended them to be, and our lives are never simply routine.	拜不确定性所赐，我们的成就未必是我们的初衷，我们的生活也永远不会简简单单。


Uncertainty reveals opportunities to us that otherwise would have been wasted.	不确定性向我们揭示我们有可能错过的机会。


Our lives are probabilistic, not determined, and the more we realize this, the less we need to feel threatened by uncertainty.	我们的生活充满了或然而不是必然，我们越是认识到这一点，就越不必感到被不确定性所威胁。


Still, there is widespread disaffection today, and clever politicians are eager to exploit citizens’ anger.	但是，如今仍有广泛的不满，聪明的政客渴望利用公民的愤怒。


If people feel engulfed by crises, and view the future as fragile and precarious, they will be reluctant to embrace uncertainty.	如果人们感到被卷入了危机，并且认为未来岌岌可危，他们就不愿意接受不确定性。


But this is where science has something to offer.	但这正是科学起作用的地方。


Science makes visible that which would otherwise remain hidden.	科学让可能隐藏的东西现形。


It alerts us to randomness in the physical and social world, and to the role that uncertainty plays in our communities and personal lives.	它让我们警觉实体和社会世界中的随机性，警惕不确定性在我们的社区和个人生活中所扮演的角色。


By revealing the messiness of the world that we have created – intentionally and unintentionally – it allows us to imagine how we can create that world anew, even as we accept that the future will remain open and uncertain.	通过揭示我们所创造的世界的混乱性——有意无意地——它让我们能够想象我们如何创造新世界，即使我们接受未来仍将保持开放和不确定。


Building a Caring Economy	打造关爱经济


DAVOS – Today’s mainstream economic models are based on two fundamental assumptions: first, humans are essentially selfish actors who act rationally to advance their own utility – so-called homo economicus; but, second, as Adam Smith’s metaphor of an “invisible hand” was intended to suggest, self-regarding behavior can inadvertently advance the common good.	达沃斯——今天主流经济模式的构建基础是两大基本假设：第一，人类从本质上是自私的，靠理性行为争取实际利益——这就是所谓的理性经济人假说； 还有其次，亚当·斯密有关 “看不见的手”的比喻意在表明，利己主义行为能在无意中促进公共利益。


Both assumptions are patently false.	这两个假设显然是错误的。


In order to address pressing global problems like climate change and inequality, the predominant economic models must be rethought, incorporating other motivational systems that can induce different human behaviors.	为了解决气候变化和全球性不平等等迫切的全球问题，我们必须要重新思考主导经济模式，引入其他激励机制，借以改变人们的行为。


Such realistic models, based on empirical research in psychology and the neurosciences, would allow societies to cultivate their sense of compassion and build a new kind of “caring economics” that reflects more fully what it is to be human.	上述以心理和神经学为基础的实证研究将引导社会培养爱心意识，建立一种全方位反应人类心理的新型“关怀经济学”。


Neuroscientific studies have shown that humans can be motivated by care and systems of affiliation just as easily as they can be by power and achievement or consumption and desire.	神经学研究表明，关爱及隶属机制对人的驱动力与权力成就感或消费欲望一样强。


After all, we have evolved to be able to form stable relationships, build trust, and care for children, all of which requires a capacity for compassion and empathy.	毕竟，我们已经进化到能够构筑稳定的合作关系，建立信任感并照顾子女，所有这些都离不开同情心和同理心。


Once we recognize that these caring motivational systems are common to all humans – indeed, most are shared with other animals – the world begins to look very different.	一旦我们意识到上述关怀激励机制是所有人的共性——其实多数动物也有着同样的反应——这个世界就开始发生翻天覆地的变化。


It is important, however, to distinguish between basic empathic responses and a more universal capacity for compassion.	但区分基本的同理心和更普适的同情心非常重要。


Empathy alone does not necessarily prompt pro-social behavior; empathizing with the suffering of another may not drive you to help that person.	同理心本身并不一定带来对社会有益的行为； 同情别人的遭遇也许不会促使你去帮助那个人。


In fact, empathy can result in distress, which may even lead to withdrawal or burnout.	事实上，同理心可能带来痛苦，甚至可能导致回避或倦怠。


Compassion, by contrast, is concern for another person that is linked to a strong motivation to alleviate their suffering.	反之，同情是由对他人关切所产生的减轻其痛苦的强烈动机。


If, say, a mother sees her child crying after a fall, she may first empathize with the child, feeling its pain and sadness.	比方说一位母亲看到自己的孩子在跌倒之后大哭，她可能最先对孩子产生同情，对它的痛苦和悲伤感同身受。


But, rather than succumbing to feelings of distress, she will take the child in her arms to soothe and comfort it.	但她不会只停留在感受这种痛苦，而是会把孩子揽入怀中安慰它。


Both empathy and compassion seem to come naturally to humans.	同理心和同情心似乎是人类与生俱来的。


But both responses are fragile, and can be quelled or reversed by a large number of factors – including the degree to which we identify with the person who is suffering.	但两者的反应都十分脆弱，可以被众多因素压制或者逆转——其中包括你对受难者的认同感。


Humans tend to find it easy to empathize with and care about members of their “in-group” – people with whom they share features, whether real or socially constructed, like race, gender, age, or religious affiliation.	人们往往容易同情和关心“自己人”——因为自己人有着实际存在抑或社会赋予的共同的特点，如种族、性别、年龄或宗教信仰。


Empathy and care toward out-group members does not come quite as easily.	对外人的同情和关爱难度较大。


Such universal or global compassion – caring about people who are very different from us – probably requires the involvement of higher cognitive functions, and thus may be unique to humans.	这种全球或者普适的同情——关爱与我们有巨大差异的人——可能涉及更高级的认知功能，并且因此可能为人类所独有。


It may also require some training.	人们可能需要某些训练才能实现这一目标。


After all, living in a world that assumes we are homo economicus can encourage selfish habits.	毕竟，生活在假定我们是理性经济人的世界可能会助长自私的习惯。


Fortunately, research suggests that such habits can be broken.	幸运的是，研究表明这种习惯可以被打破。


The largest such study is the recently completed ReSource project, in which my colleagues and I subjected almost 300 people, over 11 months, to an intense mental-training program, developed by a team of experienced mediation teachers, scientists, and psychotherapists.	资源计划是最近完成的该领域最大规模的研究项目，我的同事和我要求近300人参与了一项长达11个月、由经验丰富的调解老师、科学家和心理治疗师设计的高强度的心理训练项目。


The goal was to cultivate a broad range of mental capacities and social skills, including attention, mindfulness, self-awareness, perspective-taking on others, empathy, compassion, and the ability to cope with difficult emotions like anger or stress.	该项目旨在培养一系列的心理和社交能力，包括注意力、专注力、自我意识、站在他人的角度换位思考、同理心、同情心和愤怒或压力等困难情绪的管理能力。


Progress was assessed by measuring changes in participants’ brains, hormones, health, behavior, and subjective sense of wellbeing.	通过衡量参与者各项大脑、激素、健康、行为和幸福主观意识等指标来对进展进行评估。


The project’s preliminary results reinforce a key finding of previous, smaller studies: just as we can strengthen and transform a muscle through physical exercise, we can develop our brain and behavioral capacities – from attention and emotional regulation to trust and donation behavior – through regular mental training.	该项目的初步成果再度证明了以前一项稍小规模研究所得出的重要发现：就像可以借助体育锻炼来强化和改造肌肉一样，我们也能借助定期的心理培训对自己的大脑和行为能力进行开发——从注意力和情绪调节到信任和捐赠行为 。


Of course, mental exercises must be honed to develop particular skills and behaviors; mindfulness practice alone is not adequate to improve, say, socio-cognitive skills.	当然，心理训练必须开发特定的技能和行为模式； 仅靠专注力并不足以改善以社会认知为代表的技能。


And lasting changes occur only after a prolonged period of regular training.	而且只有经过长期规范训练才能产生持续的变化。


But, with the right approach, it may well be possible to foster the kind of altruistic and pro-social behaviors that are needed to improve global cooperation.	但只要方法正确，培养那种改善全球合作所需的利他和对社会有益行为是完全可能的。


On the basis of these findings and those from other psychological, neuroscientific, and economic studies, my colleagues and I are now working with the president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Dennis Snower, to formulate new motivation-based computational models of economic decision-making.	在上述结论和其他心理、神经学和经济研究成果的基础上，我和我的同事正与基尔世界经济研究所所长丹尼斯•斯诺尔合作，确定以全新动机为基础的经济决策计算模型。


These models will enable us to make clear, testable predictions about expected monetary-exchange behavior in an economic context, including in addressing common-good problems.	上述模型将使我们能就经济领域的预期货币交换行为做出明确、可验证的预测，包括较好地解决公共利益问题。


In fact, several of these experiments are already underway.	事实上，有几项研究已经在进行当中。


The secular, ethical mental-training exercises used in the ReSource project could be applied in businesses, political institutions, schools (for both teachers and students), and health-care settings – in short, in all areas where people experience high levels of stress and related phenomena.	资源项目中涉及的世俗、道德的心理训练可以运用在企业、政治机关、学校（老师和学生）和医疗保健领域当中——简言之，适用范围遍及人们能够感受到高压及相关现象的一切领域。


Young children, in particular, could benefit considerably from such training programs, which could enable them to use mental skills and compassion to regulate stress and emotions.	特别是年幼的孩子能在很大程度上受益于上述培训项目——他们可以用心理技巧和同情心来管理压力和情绪。


Policymakers should take the lead in promoting this science-based approach to learning and working, such as by redesigning institutions to emphasize collaboration.	决策者应带头推进在工作和学习中运用这一科学方法，比方说重新设计机构以加强合作。


Several governments – including that of the United Kingdom – have developed so-called “nudge units,” which seek to encourage people to make better choices for themselves and society by providing subtle hints, cues, and other suggestions.	包括英国在内的某些国家政府已经成立了所谓“助力单位”，意在通过提供巧妙的暗示、线索和建议鼓励人们为自己也为社会做出更好的决策。


A lack of compassion is arguably the cause of many of humankind’s most devastating failures.	可以说缺乏同情心导致了人类许多最惨痛的失败。


Our success in tackling the enormous challenges we face will depend not only on our willingness to work actively and cooperatively to advance the common good, but also on our ability to foster the attributes needed to do so.	我们能否成功应对重大挑战不仅取决于积极合作推进共同利益的意愿，还取决于是否有能力培养这样做所须的素养。


The “Impact” Illusion in Science	科学中的“影响”幻觉


STANFORD – Government-funded scientific research runs the gamut from studies of basic physical and biological processes to the development of applications to meet immediate needs.	斯坦福—政府出资的科学研究涵盖了从基本生理和生物过程研究到满足迫切需要的应用开发的全部领域。


Given limited resources, grant-making authorities are always tempted to channel a higher proportion of funds toward the latter.	由于资源有限，分配当局总是想把更高比例的资金配置给后者。


And, faced with today’s tight budget constraints, the inclination to favor projects that have demonstrable short-term returns is arguably stronger now than in the past.	而在当今预算约束吃紧的情况下，偏袒能产生可见短期回报的项目的倾向可以说比以往更加严重。


But to succumb to it is a mistake.	但屈从于此是一个错误。


Some of science’s most useful breakthroughs have come as a result of sustained investment in basic research or as by-products of unrelated efforts.	一些科学中最有用的突破都来自对基础研究的持续投资或者不相关努力的副产品。


Indeed, evaluating the impact of any research project is difficult.	事实上，评估任何研究项目的影响是十分困难的。


As Marc Kirschner, a professor at Harvard Medical School, pointed out in a thoughtful editorial in the journal Science: “One may be able to recognize good science as it happens, but significant science can only be viewed in the rear-view mirror.”	哈佛医学院的马克·柯什纳（Marc Kirschner）在《科学》杂志中发表了一篇思想深刻的社论，他指出，“你也许能在好科学发生时认出它，但重要的科学只能在后视镜里看到。 ”


Even preeminent researchers may underestimate the significance of their findings at the time they obtain them.	甚至杰出研究者也会在做出发现时低估这些发现的重要性。


When Salvador Luria, my university microbiology professor, received the 1969 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, he made the point eloquently, sending a humorous cartoon to all who had congratulated him on the award.	我校微生物学教授萨尔瓦多·鲁里亚（Salvador Luria）是1969年诺贝尔生理学和医学奖获得者，他就调侃过这一现象。 他向所有庆祝他获奖的人寄去一幅幽默漫画。


It depicted an elderly couple at the breakfast table.	漫画描绘了一对坐在早餐桌前的老夫妻。


The husband, reading the morning newspaper, exclaims, “Great Scott!	丈夫看着日报，大声说：“了不起的斯科特！ 我获得了诺贝尔奖！


I’ve been awarded the Nobel Prize for something I seem to have said, or done, or thought, in 1934!”	原因是我在1934年所说，所做，所想的东西！ ”


Discoveries can come from unforeseen directions, as seemingly unrelated and obscure research areas intersect unexpectedly.	发现可能来自未曾预料到的方向，因为似乎不相关又模糊的研究领域之间会出现出人意料的互动。


In a 2011 editorial, the French biologist François Jacob described the research that led to his 1965 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.	在一篇2011年的社论中，法国生物学家弗朗索瓦·雅各布（François Jacob）描述了让其获得1965年诺贝尔生理学和医学奖的研究。


His lab had been working on the mechanism that under certain circumstances causes the bacterium E. coli suddenly to produce bacterial viruses.	他的实验室一直在努力研究一种机制，即在特定环境下让大肠杆菌突然产生细菌性病毒。


At the same time, another research group was analyzing, also in E. coli, how the synthesis of a certain enzyme is induced in the presence of a specific sugar.	与此同时，另一个研究小组也在分析大肠杆菌，研究某种酶的合成如何在一种具体的糖面前被诱导的。


As Jacob put it, “The two systems appeared mechanistically miles apart.	雅各布说，“这两个系统看起来相差十万八千里。


But their juxtaposition would produce a critical breakthrough for our understanding of life.”	但将它们并列在一起，就产生了对生命的理解的关键突破。


Thus was born the concept of an “operon,” a cluster of genes whose expression is regulated by an adjacent regulatory gene.	”“操纵子”（operon）的概念就是这样产生的。 操纵子是基因簇，其表达受临近的调解基因控制。


Another quintessential example of both the synergy and serendipity of basic research is the origin of recombinant DNA technology, the prototypical technique of modern genetic engineering (sometimes called “genetic modification,” or GM).	另一个体现基础研究协同性和意外性的经典例子是DNA重组技术的起源。 DNA重组技术是现代基因工程（有时也被称为“转基因”，简称GM）的鼻祖。


It resulted from a combination of findings in several esoteric, largely unrelated areas of basic research in the early 1970s.	它来自数个在20世纪70年代还十分深奥、基本不相关的基础研究领域的发现的组合。


Research in enzymology and nucleic acid chemistry led to techniques for cutting and rejoining segments of DNA.	酶化学和核酸化学的研究产生了切割和重组DNA片段的技术。


Advances in fractionation procedures permitted the rapid detection, identification, and separation of DNA and proteins.	分馏程序的进步实现了对DNA和蛋白质的快速侦测、识别和分离。


And the accumulated knowledge of microbial physiology and genetics allowed foreign DNA to be introduced into a cell and made to function there.	微生物生理学和遗传学知识的积累让人们可以将外来DNA注入细胞，让它们在新细胞中起作用。


The result was the birth of modern biotechnology.	其结果是现代生物技术的诞生。


Over the last 40 years, recombinant DNA technology has revolutionized numerous industrial sectors, including agriculture and pharmaceuticals.	在过去40年中，重组DNA技术掀起了大量行业部门的革命，包括农业和制药业。


It has enabled the development of vaccines against infectious diseases and drugs that treat non-infectious illnesses like diabetes, cancer, cystic fibrosis, psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and some genetic disorders.	它让我们开发出针对传染病的疫苗和治疗糖尿病、癌症、囊包性纤维症、牛皮癣、风湿性关节炎以及某些遗传病的药物。


Another example is the creation of hybridomas, hybrid cells created in the laboratory by fusing normal white blood cells that produce antibodies with a cancer cell.	另一个例子是杂交瘤的创造，杂交瘤是一种实验室中产生的杂交细胞，它由产生抗体的普通白细胞和癌细胞溶合而成。


Researchers wanted to combine the cancer cells’ rapid growth and the normal cells’ ability to dictate the production of a single specific “monoclonal” antibody.	研究者想结合癌细胞的快速增殖和普通细胞的能力，产生单一的具体“单克隆”（monoclonal）抗体。


Their goal was to learn more about the rates of cellular mutation and the generation of antibody diversity.	他们的目标是更多地研究细胞突变率和抗体多样性的产生。


But, as it turned out, these immortal, antibody-producing cells were useful not only for scientific inquiry, but also as a novel technological instrument for a variety of medical and industrial applications.	但是，事实上，这些长生不老、能产生抗体的细胞不但可用于科学研究，也是多种医学和工业应用的梦幻技术工具。 事实上，该技术已经带来了高精确度诊断测试的发展；


Indeed, the technology has led to the development of highly specific diagnostic tests; blockbuster anti-cancer drugs such as Rituxan (rituximab), Erbitux (cetuximab), and Herceptin (trastuzumab); and Avastin (bevacizumab), which is widely used to treat both cancer and diseases of the retina that commonly cause blindness.	美罗华（利妥昔单抗）、爱必妥（西妥昔单抗）和赫赛汀（曲妥单抗）等轰动性抗癌药物； 以及被广泛用于治疗癌症和常常导致失明的视网膜疾病的阿瓦斯丁（贝伐单抗）。


In his editorial, Kirschner bemoaned the “tendency to equate significance to any form of medical relevance,” noting that it caused research into non-mammalian systems to be treated “as intrinsically less valuable than studies on human cells.”	柯什纳的社论叹息“将重要性与任何形式的医学相关性等同的倾向”，指出这导致非哺乳类系统的研究被视为“天生低人类细胞研究一等”。


As a result, simple but informative model systems can be overlooked, and an important link between basic science and human medicine can be lost.	结果，简单但信息量巨大的模式系统可能被忽视，基础研究和人类医学的重要联系也有可能被遗漏。


The past century of research on various non-mammalian model systems makes this point persuasively.	过去一个世纪中对各种非哺乳类模式系统的研究充分说明了这一点。


For example, studies of Caenorhabditis elegans, a tiny roundworm, have provided a wealth of information on cellular differentiation, neural networks, meiosis, and programmed cell death.	比如，对秀丽隐杆线虫（一种微型蛔虫）的研究为我们提供了大量关于细胞分化、神经网络、减数分裂和程序性细胞死亡的信息。


Studies of the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, have significantly advanced our understanding of the mechanisms underlying Mendelian genetics.	对果蝇（黑腹果蝇）的研究极大地推进了我们队孟德尔遗传学基本机制的理解。


The amount of money funneled by governments into research is large.	政府投入研究的资金量是巨大的。


In the United States, the National Institutes of Health spends roughly $30 billion a year, and the National Science Foundation adds another $7 billion.	在美国，国家卫生研究院（National Institutes of Health）每年支出约300亿美元，而国家科学基金会（National Science Foundation）也会投入70亿美元。


As officials decide how that money is to be spent, they would be wise to glance in the rear-view mirror and fund the basic research that keeps science moving forward.	在官员们决定如何花钱的时候，明智的做法是看一看后视镜，把钱投给不断推动科学进步的基础研究。


The Data Revolution for Sustainable Development	为可持续发展服务的数据革命


NEW YORK – There is growing recognition that the success of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which will be adopted on September 25 at a special United Nations summit, will depend on the ability of governments, businesses, and civil society to harness data for decision-making.	纽约——越来越多的人认识到9月25日联合国特别峰会即将通过的可持续发展目标（SDGs）的成功将会取决于政府、企业和民间社会利用数据进行决策的能力。


The key, as I have highlighted before, is to invest in building innovative data systems that draw on new sources of real-time data for sustainable development.	正如我之前强调的那样，关键是要投资建设利用实时数据实现可持续发展的创新数据系统。


We live in a data-driven world.	我们生活在一个由数据驱动的世界。


Advertisers, insurance companies, national security agencies, and political advisers have already learned to tap into big data, sometimes to our chagrin; so, too, have countless scientists and researchers, thereby accelerating progress on new discoveries.	有时会令我们感到懊恼的是，广告商、保险公司、国家安全机构和政治顾问已经学会了如何利用大数据； 无数科学家和研究员也掌握了同样的方法，全新研究成果也因此而诞生。


But the global development community has been slower to benefit – not least because too much development data are still being collected using cumbersome approaches that lag behind today’s technological capabilities.	但全球发展共同体却并未那么快受益——因为太多的发展数据仍在利用落后于今天技术能力的繁琐方法来进行搜集。


One way to improve data collection and use for sustainable development is to create an active link between the provision of services and the collection and processing of data for decision-making.	改进可持续发展数据收集和利用的一种方法是在服务提供和决策数据的搜集和处理间建立积极的联系。


Take health-care services.	以医疗服务为例。


Every day, in remote villages of developing countries, community health workers help patients fight diseases (such as malaria), get to clinics for checkups, receive vital immunizations, obtain diagnoses (through telemedicine), and access emergency aid for their infants and young children (such as for chronic under-nutrition).	日复一日，在发展中国家的偏远乡村，社区卫生工作者帮助患者战胜疾病（如疟疾）、去诊所检查、接受重要的免疫接种、得到诊断（通过远程医疗等方式），并为新生儿和儿童申请紧急援助（如慢性营养不良）。


But the information from such visits is usually not collected, and even if it is put on paper, it is never used again.	但上述诊疗信息通常不会被收集，即使被记录在纸面上，也永远不会被再次利用。


We now have a much smarter way to proceed.	现在可以有更明智的方式。


Community health workers are increasingly supported by smart-phone applications, which they can use to log patient information at each visit.	社区卫生工作者正越来越频繁地使用智能手机应用，以便在每次诊疗时记录相应的患者信息。


That information can go directly onto public-health dashboards, which health managers can use to spot disease outbreaks, failures in supply chains, or the need to bolster technical staff.	上述信息可以直接上传到公共卫生控制室，以便医疗卫生管理人员发现疾病爆发、找出供应链故障或为技术人员提供支持。


Such systems can provide a real-time log of vital events, including births and deaths, and even use so-called verbal autopsies to help identify causes of death.	上述系统可以实时记录出生和死亡等重要事件，甚至利用所谓的口头尸检来帮助确定死亡原因。


And, as part of electronic medical records, the information can be used at future visits to the doctor or to remind patients of the need for follow-up visits or medical interventions.	而且，作为电子病历的组成部分，上述信息可以在未来提醒医生随访或提醒患者寻求进一步救治。


Education provides the same kind of vast opportunity.	教育也提供了同样广阔的机遇。


Currently, school enrollment rates tend to be calculated based on student registrations at the beginning of the school year, even though actual attendance may be far below the registration rate.	目前，学校招生率往往根据学年开始时的学生登记计算，但实际出勤人数可能远远低于登记率。


Moreover, officials wishing to report higher enrollment rates sometimes manipulate registration data, so we never get an accurate picture of who is actually at school.	此外，希望高报入学率的官员有时会操纵登记数据，因此我们并不准确了解哪些人实际在校学习。


With mobile apps, schools and community education workers can log student and teacher attendance on a transparent, real-time basis, and follow up more easily with students who drop out, especially for reasons that could be overcome through informed intervention by community education workers.	利用手机应用，学校和社区教育工作者可以实时透明地记录学生和教师的出勤情况，并降低跟踪辍学学生的难度，特别是导致某些学生辍学的原因在了解情况的社区教育工作者的干预下是可以解决的。


This information can be fed automatically into dashboards that education administrators can use to track progress in key areas.	上述信息可以自动上传至控制室，以便教育管理者跟踪重点地区的进度。


Such data collection can accelerate sustainable development by improving decision-making.	上述数据收集可以通过改进决策促进可持续发展。


But that is only the first step.	但这仅仅是第一步。


The same techniques should also be used to collect some of the key indicators that measure progress on the SDGs.	我们应该用同样的技术收集衡量可持续发展目标进度的关键信息。


In fact, measuring progress at frequent intervals, and publicizing the successes and shortfalls, is vital to keeping the world on track to meet its ambitious long-term targets.	事实上，定期衡量进展状况、向外界公开成绩与不足对确保世界实现雄心勃勃的长期目标至关重要。


Doing so would not only enable us to reward governments that are fostering progress; it would also keep laggard governments accountable for their weak performance and, one hopes, motivate them to redouble their efforts.	这不仅能使我们奖励推动进步的政府； 还能让落后政府为自身的不佳表现负责，并激励它们加倍努力。


The need for such real-time measurement became apparent over the last 15 years, when the world was pursuing the Millennium Development Goals.	过去15年中世界为实现千年发展目标努力时，人们意识到有必要掌握实时进度。


Given that many key indicators are not yet collected in real time, but only through laborious retrospective household surveys, the indicators for the key poverty-reduction goal are as much as five years out of date for many countries.	鉴于许多关键指标还仅仅通过费时费力的回溯性家庭访问取得而尚未实现实时搜集，很多国家关键的减贫指标还只有五年前的数据。


The world is aiming for 2015 targets for poverty, health, and education, with, in some cases, key data only up to 2010.	世界正竭力实现2015年贫困、医疗和教育目标，但在某些情况下，却只有截至2010年的关键数据。


Fortunately, the information and communications technology revolution and the spread of broadband coverage nearly everywhere can quickly make such time lags a thing of the past.	幸运的是，信息和通信技术革命和宽带覆盖几乎无所不在，可以迅速将上述时间上的滞后变成过去。


As indicated in the report A World that Counts: Mobilizing the Data Revolution for Sustainable Development, we must modernize the practices used by statistical offices and other public agencies, while tapping into new sources of data in a thoughtful and creative way that complements traditional approaches.	正如报告重要的世界：调动数据革命为可持续发展服务所述的那样，我们必须更新统计机构和其他公共机构所用的方法，用有思想、有创意的方法挖掘数据资源来补充传统方式。


Through more effective use of smart data – collected during service delivery, economic transactions, and remote sensing – the fight against extreme poverty will be bolstered; the global energy system will be made much more efficient and less polluting; and vital services such as health and education will be made far more effective and accessible.	有效运用通过服务提供、经济交易和遥感等方式搜集的智能数据将有效提振打击极端贫困的事业； 全球能源系统将会提高效率、降低污染；


With this breakthrough in sight, several governments, including that of the United States, as well as businesses and other partners, have announced plans to launch a new “Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data” at the UN this month.	在这即将迎来突破的时刻，包括美国在内的若干国家政府与企业和其他合作伙伴一道，本月在联合国宣布了启动全新“可持续发展全球伙伴关系”计划。


The new partnership aims to strengthen data collection and monitoring efforts by raising more funds, encouraging knowledge-sharing, addressing key barriers to access and use of data, and identifying new big-data strategies to upgrade the world’s statistical systems.	上述全新伙伴关系旨在通过筹集更多资金、鼓励知识共享、解决访问和使用数据的关键障碍及制定全新大数据战略升级世界统计系统来加强数据的收集和监管工作。


The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network will support the new Global Partnership by creating a new Thematic Network on Data for Sustainable Development, which will bring together leading data scientists, thinkers, and academics from across multiple sectors and disciplines to form a center of data excellence.	联合国可持续发展解决方案网络将创建全新可持续发展数据专题网支持新的全球伙伴关系，汇总多部门多学科的顶尖数据科学家、思想家和学者成立优质数据中心项目。


We are delighted to be chairing this network, which has at its core a commitment to turn facts and figures into real development progress.	我们很高兴能主持上述网络，其核心目标是将事实和数据转化为现实的发展进步。


We firmly believe the data revolution can be a revolution for sustainable development, and we welcome partners from around the world to join us.	我们坚信数据革命是一场可持续发展的革命，我们欢迎来自世界各地的合作伙伴加入到我们的行列。


How to Finance Global Reflation	用SDR融资摆脱全球通缩


HONG KONG – There is a growing awareness that, in today’s globalized world, financial markets are beyond the control of national policymakers.	香港—人们日益认识到，在当今全球化的世界，金融市场已经超出了一国政策制定者的控制。


While a few economies do have the scale to shape interconnected global markets, they face serious constraints, political and economic.	虽然一些经济体的规模确实达到了可以影响相互关联的全球市场的规模，但它们都面临着严重的国内政治和经济的制约。


As a result, the global economy is stuck in a pro-cyclical financial cycle, with few options for escape.	结果，全球经济陷入了以顺周期失衡为特征的金融通缩长周期，难以找到摆脱之道。


As Claudio Borio pointed out years ago, the global financial cycle is longer and larger than real economic cycles, and is closely associated with the fluctuating value of the dominant reserve currency, the US dollar.	克劳迪奥·博里奥（Claudio Borio）在多年前指出，全球金融周期与实体经济周期相比变得越来越长，并且与主要储备货币美元的价值波动密切相关。


When the dollar is weak, capital flows from the United States to other countries, where it spurs growth through increased credit.	当美元疲软时，资本从美国流向其他国家，通过增加资本流入国的信用刺激其增长。


Unfortunately for these countries, typically in the emerging world, the inflows also spur inflation, asset bubbles, and currency appreciation.	对这些国家（通常是新兴经济体）来说，不幸的是资本的流入也刺激了通货膨胀、资产泡沫和货币升值。


The result is growing financial and geopolitical risk, which makes the US dollar more appealing for investors.	结果是金融和地缘政治风险增加，从而让投资者更加青睐美元。


As capital flows back to the US, the dollar gains strength, while emerging economies are left to face the consequences of bursting asset bubbles and currency devaluation.	随着资本流回美国，美元变得坚挺，而新兴经济体则需要面对资产泡沫破裂和货币贬值的后果。


In a zero-interest-rate world, a strong dollar plays the same deflationary role in global markets as the gold standard did during the 1930s.	在零利率世界中，强势美元在全球市场起到了通缩的作用，一如20世纪30年代的金本位。


The US is thus the economy that is best equipped to pull the world out of secular deflation.	因此，美国是最适合将世界带出长期通缩的经济体。


But that requires a willingness to resolve the so-called Triffin dilemma – the conflict between long-term international interests and short-term domestic interests that issuers of reserve currencies confront – by running increasingly large current-account deficits that enable the US to meet global demand for liquidity.	但这需要美国愿意保持日益增加的巨大的经常项目赤字以满足全球流动性需求，也就是需要解决所谓的特里芬难题（即储备货币发行国所面临的长期国际利益和短期国内利益之间的冲突）。


This seems unlikely not only for the US, but also for its reserve-issuing counterparts in the rest of the advanced world.	这看上去不太可能，不仅美国如此，其他发行储备货币的发达国家也是如此。


Stagnant economic growth and high debt burdens in Europe and Japan have destroyed politicians’ will to raise taxes or borrow more to create space for fiscal expansion.	欧洲和日本经济增长停滞、债务高企，这导致其政客不愿提高税收或增加政府债务来创造财政扩张空间。


As a result, monetary policy throughout the developed world has become severely overburdened.	结果，整个发达世界的货币政策严重超负荷。


From 2007 to 2014, the central banks of the four reserve-issuing economies (the US, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan) expanded their balance sheets by $7.2 trillion.	从2007年到2014年，四大储备货币发行经济体（美国、欧元区、英国和日本）的央行资产负债表扩容了7. 2万亿美元。


While this increased the broad money supply by $9 trillion, private-sector credit increased by only $1.8 trillion, revealing a serious flaw in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the real economy.	这让其广义货币供给增加了9万亿美元，但其私人信用只增加了1. 8万亿美元，表明非常规货币政策向实体经济的传导渠道有严重问题。


In fact, although near-zero interest rates have reduced debt-service costs, the real burden of debt has actually increased in recent years, owing to declining inflation.	事实上，尽管零利率降低了债务维持成本，但近几年来债务的真实负担实际上有所增加，原因在于通胀在下降。


As long as households and companies continue to focus on deleveraging, these countries will continue to face balance-sheet recessions.	只要家庭和公司继续专注于去杠杆，这些国家就将继续面临资产负债表衰退。


As for the developing world, China is the only candidate for issuing liquidity.	至于发展中世界，中国几乎是可以增加流动性的唯一候选。


But its once-spectacular growth is decelerating, with no end to the slowdown in sight.	但其曾经闪亮的经济增长正在减速，并且看不出减速结束的信号。


This is generating enough uncertainty to keep Chinese policymakers preoccupied with domestic challenges.	这正在造成巨大的不确定性，足以使中国决策者全神贯注于国内挑战。


The problem today is a lack of will, not a lack of opportunities, to do what it takes to boost demand.	今天的问题是缺少采取必要手段提振需求的意愿，而不是缺少机会。


In fact, investment in global public goods – namely, the infrastructure needed to meet the needs of the developing world and to mitigate climate change – could spur global reflation.	事实上，全球公共品投资——即满足发展中世界的需求及减轻气候变化所需要的基础设施投资——是完全能够刺激全球总需求并摆脱通缩的。


An estimated $6 trillion in infrastructure investment will be needed annually over the next 15 years just to address global warming.	据估算，光是解决全球变暖问题，未来15年每年就需要6万亿基础设施投资。


Moreover, the G30 has estimated that an additional $7.1 trillion in annual investment by the nine top economies – which account for 60% of world output – will be needed to sustain moderate global growth.	此外，G30 估计全球最大的九个经济体（它们占世界产出的60%）每年需要拿出7万亿美元投资才能维持温和的全球增长。


With the US, the issuer of the world’s preeminent reserve currency, unwilling or unable to provide the liquidity needed to close the infrastructure investment gap, a new supplementary reserve currency should be instituted – one whose issuer does not have to confront the Triffin dilemma.	可是，作为世界主要储备货币发行国的美国不愿或无法提供填补全球基础设施投资缺口所需要的流动性。 因此，我们需要创造一个新的补充性全球储备货币——并要求其发行者不必面对特里芬难题。


This leaves one option: the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Right.	这就只剩下一个选择：国际货币基金组织（IMF）的特别提款权（SDR）。


Of course, the road to becoming a reserve currency is long, especially for the SDR, which currently functions only as a reserve asset, with an issuance size ($285 billion) that is small relative to global official reserves of $10.5 trillion (excluding gold).	当然，成为全球储备货币之路是漫长的，特别是对SDR来说。 目前SDR只是作为储备资产，其发行规模（2,850亿美元）相对于全球官方储备总额（10.


But an incremental expansion of the SDR’s role in the new global financial architecture, aimed at making the monetary-policy transmission mechanism more effective, can be achieved without major disagreement.	5万亿美元，不包括黄金）来说只是九牛一毛。 但增加SDR在未来全球金融体系中的作用——旨在让货币政策传导机制更加有效——是可以在避免重大分歧的情况下逐步实现的。


This is because, conceptually, an increase in SDRs is equivalent to an increase in the global central bank balance sheet (quantitative easing).	这是因为，从概念上讲，增加SDR等于扩张全球央行资产负债表（即目前已经在发达经济体广泛应用的量化宽松）。


Here’s how it would work.	我们来分析一下这个机制会如何运作。


Central banks, in order to generate resources, would expand their balance sheets by investing through the IMF in the form of increased SDRs.	全球央行为了创造更多货币资源来支持全球总需求扩张，可以在IMF机制下，以增加SDR的形式增资，从而扩张其资产负债表。


Because SDRs comprise voting rights, they function as equity, meaning that they can be invested as such in the World Bank and other multilateral development banks, which can decide which global public goods deserve the resources.	在目前的IMF机制下，SDR的发行及使用已经被赋予了一个成员国投票权的结构，相当于成员国股本的作用，这意味着新增的SDR的一部分可以用于并视为对世界银行和其他多边开发银行的投资，从而由这些多变开发银行来决定哪些全球公共品应该获得资源。


The drawdown of SDR allocations can be fine-tuned to avoid causing too much inflation.	如有需要，IMF也可以通过减少SDR配置来精确调整全球央行的货币发行总量，以避免导致太多通胀。


Consider a scenario in which member central banks increase their SDR allocation in the IMF by, say, $1 trillion.	考虑以下情形。 成员国央行增加它们在IMF的SDR配置（比如）1万亿美元。


A five-times leverage would enable the IMF to increase either lending to member countries or investments in infrastructure via multilateral development banks by at least $5 trillion.	以五倍杠杆计，IMF向成员国直接贷款或通过多边开发银行间接投资于基础设施的能力至少增加了5万亿美元。


Moreover, multilateral development banks could leverage their equity by borrowing in capital markets.	此外，多边开发银行可以通过在资本市场借贷放大股本。


Depending on the quality of the projects, in terms of governance and cash flows, they could subsequently be sold back to investors as asset-backed securities to fund new projects.	根据项目的质量（由治理和现金流决定），它们随后可以将项目资产通过证券市场回售给私人投资者，所得回笼资金又可以为新的全球公共品项目融资。


In the past, the financial resources available for investment were constrained by national savings.	在过去，可用于投资的金融资源受一国的国民储蓄制约。


In recent years, however, unconventional monetary policy has shown that liquidity and credit can be created against global savings, with relatively little impact on inflation, provided there is excess capacity in production and insufficient effective aggregate demand.	但是，近几年来，非常规货币政策的实践已经表明流动性和信用可以在全球储蓄的基础上创造，只要存在有过剩的产能和有效总需求不足的情况，其对通胀的影响相对较小。


The IMF and the major central banks should take advantage of this newfound knowledge, and provide equity and liquidity against long-term lending for infrastructure investments.	IMF和全球主要央行应该利用这一新发现的知识及规律，及时提供股本和流动性资源，以实现对全球紧缺的基础设施投资的长期融资。


In this way, global public goods can be not only funded; they can also propel global recovery.	以这种方式，全球公共品投资不但能够找到资金； 还能刺激全球经济的复苏。


Crowdfunding or Crowdphishing?	众筹还是众钓？


NEW HAVEN – If one were seeking a perfect example of why it’s so hard to make financial markets work well, one would not have to look further than the difficulties and controversies surrounding crowdfunding in the United States.	纽黑文—如果你想寻找一个说明金融市场为何如此难以良好地运转的完美例子，你只需要看看围绕美国众筹（crowdfunding）所出现的困难和争议就行了。


After deliberating for more than three years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last month issued a final rule that will allow true crowdfunding; and yet the new regulatory framework still falls far short of what’s needed to boost crowdfunding worldwide.	在研究了三年多后，美国证券与交易委员会（SEC）在上个月出台了最终规则，该规则允许真正的众筹； 但新的监管框架仍远远落后于提振全球众筹所必须的要求。


True crowdfunding, or equity crowdfunding, refers to the activities of online platforms that sell shares of startup companies directly to large numbers of small investors, bypassing traditional venture capital or investment banking.	真正的众筹，或曰股权众筹，是指绕过传统风险资本或投资银行业务，直接面向大量小投资者出售初创公司股份的在线平台活动。


The concept is analogous to that of online auctions.	其概念类似于在线拍卖。


But, unlike allowing individuals to offer their furniture to the whole world, crowdfunding is supposed to raise money fast, from those in the know, for businesses that bankers might not understand.	但是，与允许个人向全世界提供家具（furniture）不同，众筹是为了快速筹集资金，出资者都是内行，而筹资项目未必为银行家所理解。


It certainly sounds exciting.	显然，这听上去令人振奋。


Regulators outside the US have often been more accommodating, and some crowdfunding platforms are already operating.	美国之外的监管者常常更加灵活，一些众筹平台已经开始运行。


For example, Symbid in the Netherlands and Crowdcube in the United Kingdom were both founded in 2011.	比如，荷兰的Symbid和英国的Crowdcube成立于2011年。


But crowdfunding is still not a major factor in world markets.	但众筹在全球市场上仍然不是主要因素。


And that will not change without adequate – and innovative – financial regulation.	如果没有充分——并且创新——的金融监管变革，这一状况无法改变。


There is a conceptual barrier to understanding the problems that officials might face in regulating crowdfunding, owing to the failure of prevailing economic models to account for the manipulative and devious aspects of human behavior.	理解官员在监管众筹时可能预见的问题存在概念性障碍，因为主流经济模型没有考虑到人类行为的操纵和奸诈因素。


Economists typically describe people’s rational, honest side, but ignore their duplicity.	经济学家通常描述人们理性、诚实的一面，但忽略他们的狡黠。


As a result, they underestimate the downside risks of crowdsourcing.	因此，他们低估了众筹的消极风险。


The risks consist not so much in outright fraud – big lies that would be jailable offenses – as in more subtle forms of deception.	这些风险未必是赤裸裸的欺诈——足以让人坐牢的大谎言——更多的是更加微妙的骗局。


It may well be open deception, with promoters steering gullible amateurs around a business plan’s fatal flaw, or disclosing it only grudgingly or in the fine print.	它们很可能是开放骗局，策划者引诱容易上当的业余爱好者绕过商业计划致命的漏洞，或者对漏洞遮遮掩掩，使用非常不起眼的小字进行披露。


It is not that people are completely dishonest.	这并不是说人们完全不诚实。


On the contrary, they typically pride themselves on integrity.	相反，他们常常标榜自己的诚信。


It’s just that their integrity suffers little lapses here and there – and not always so little in aggregate.	只不过他们的诚信到处都有小瑕疵，加总起来规模可观。


In my new book with George Akerlof, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, we argue that unscrupulous behavior has to be factored into economic theory in a fundamental way.	在我与乔治·阿克洛夫（George Akerlof）合著的新书《网络钓鱼：操纵和欺骗的经济学》（Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception）中，我们指出，不道德行为应该以一种根本性方法纳入经济学理论的考察因素中。


The economic equilibrium we live should be regarded, above all, as a phishing equilibrium, in which small-time individual dishonesty can morph into something more systemically important when it is carried on by business organizations under intense competitive pressure.	我们所生活��其中的经济均衡首先是一种“钓鱼均衡”（phishing equilibrium），微不足道的个体不诚实如果由处于残酷竞争压力下的企业实施，就有可能演变成具有系统重要性的事件。


Yes, competition rewards the sharp and hardworking. But it also often compels them to keep the frontiers of subtle deception in view.	是的，竞争有利于“犀利”人士和努力工作者，但也常常迫使他们时刻注意微妙骗局。


The SEC’s new rules for crowdfunding are complex, because they address a complicated problem.	SEC的新众筹规则十分复杂，因为它们针对一个复杂的问题。


The concept underlying crowdfunding is the dispersal of information across millions of people.	众筹的基础概念是信息在数百万人中间的传播。


Most people, even the cleverest, cannot grasp the next breakthrough business opportunity.	大部分人，即使是最聪明的人，也无法抓住下一个突破性商业机会。


Those who can are dispersed.	能够抓住这样的机会的人分布得十分分散。


The economist Friedrich Hayek put it well in 1945:	经济学家哈耶克在1945年很好地说明了这一点：


“[T]here is beyond question a body of very important but unorganized knowledge which cannot possibly be called scientific in the sense of knowledge of general rules: the knowledge of particular circumstances and place.	“毫无疑问，存在一种非常重要但无组织的知识，从知识的一般规则来看，它们绝对称不上科学。 这就是关于特定环境和场合的知识。


It is with respect to this that practically every individual has some advantage over all others in that he possesses unique information of which beneficial use might be made, but of which use can be made only if the decisions depending on it are left to him or are made with his active cooperation.”	对于这种知识，几乎每个个人都拥有一些相较于其他所有人的优势，即他知道关于可以如何派上有益用场的独一无二的信息，但这种用场只有在取决于它的决定由他来做出，或需要他的积极合作才能做出时才能派上。 ”


The problem is that the promise of genuine “unique information” comes with the reality of vulnerability to deception.	问题在于，真正的“独一无二的信息”的好处来自骗局的脆弱性现实。


That’s why channeling dispersed knowledge into new businesses requires a regulatory framework that favors the genuinely enlightened and honest.	因此，将分散化的知识引导进入新企业需要有利于真正开明和诚实的监管框架。


Unfortunately, the SEC’s new crowdsourcing rules don’t go as far as they should.	不幸的是，SEC的新众筹规则做得还不够。


The 2012 US legislation that tasked the SEC with rulemaking for crowdfunding platforms specified that no startup can use them to raise more than $1 million a year.	2012 的一项美国立法授予SEC制定众筹平台规则的任务。 这项立法规定，初创企业每年利用众筹平台筹资不得超过100万美元。


This is practically worthless in terms of limiting the scope for deception.	这对于限制骗局规模来说几乎毫无用处。


In fact, including this provision was a serious mistake, and needs to be corrected with new legislation.	事实上，纳入这一条款是一个严重的错误，需要用新的立法予以纠正。


A million dollars is not enough, and the cap will tend to limit crowdfunding to small ideas.	一百万美元是不够的，这一上限将把众筹限制在小概念的范围内。


Some of the SEC rules do work against deception.	SEC规则中确实有一些针对骗局的。


Notably, crowdfunding platforms must provide communication channels “through which investors can communicate with one another and with representatives of the issuer about offerings made available.”	最值得关注的是，众筹平台必须提供沟通渠道，“以使投资者能够彼此沟通以及与发行人代表沟通关于可投资发行项目的问题。 ”


That is a good rule, fundamental to the entire idea of crowdfunding.	这是一个好规则，是整个众筹概念的基础。


But the SEC could do more than just avow its belief in “uncensored and transparent crowd discussions.”	但SEC所能做的不只限于证明它相信“不受审查的、透明的众筹讨论”。


It should require that the intermediary sponsoring a platform install a surveillance system to guard against interference and shills offering phony comments.	它应该要求出资搭建平台的中介机构建立一套监督系统抵御干扰和提供虚假评论的“托儿”。


The SEC and other regulators could go even further.	SEC和其他监管者甚至可以更进一步。


They could nudge intermediaries to create a platform that summarizes commenters’ record and reputation.	它们可以劝说中介机构总结评论者记录和名声的平台。


Indeed, why not pay commenters who accumulate “likes” or whose comments on issuers turn out to be valuable in light of evidence of those enterprises’ subsequent success?	事实上，如果评论者获得多次“赞”，或者其对发行人的评论经这些企业随后的成功证明颇有价值，那么为什么不付给他们报酬呢？


For the financial system as a whole, success ultimately depends on trust and confidence, both of which, like suspicion and fear, are highly contagious.	对于整个金融体系，成功说到底取决于信任和信心，它们——就像怀疑和恐惧——具有高度传播性。


That’s why, if crowdfunding is to reach its global potential, crowdphishing must be prevented from the outset.	正因如此，如果众筹要实现其全球潜力，那么从一开始就必须防止“众钓”（crowdphishing）。


Regulators need to get the rules right (and it would help if they hurried up about it).	监管者需要制定正确的规则。 （如果快速行动起来，将大有裨益）。


Secondary Schools’ Primary Importance	中学最重要


DHAKA – The world has made remarkable progress in providing primary education to children worldwide.	达卡——全球范围内的小学教育已经取得了长足的进步。


In the 1960s, fewer than half of the developing world’s children were enrolled in primary school.	1960年代，发展中国家接受小学教育的儿童还不到半数。


Today, more than 90% are.	而今天，该比例已已经超过90%。


In many regions, a higher proportion of girls than boys enroll in primary school.	很多地区上小学的女孩比例比男孩还高。


To be sure, too many children remain out of school in countries like Nigeria and Pakistan, but the real problem lies in what happens after the primary years are over.	可以肯定，在尼日利亚和巴基斯坦等国仍有太多儿童无法接受教育，但真正的问题在于小学教育结束后会出现什么状况。


Without opportunities for secondary education, children have little chance to improve their livelihoods, and the progress the world has made could be jeopardized.	没有上中学的机会，孩子们就很少能改善自己的生活，世界所取得的进步也因此可能受到影响。


In September, speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative, former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton recognized that “lack of secondary education holds back the aspirations of so many girls and their families.	9月，美国前国务卿 希拉里·克林顿在克林顿全球倡议大会上承认“中学教育的缺失阻碍了太多女孩及其家庭实现自己的愿望，全世界的稳定和繁荣也因此受到影响。


It undermines prosperity and stability around the world.”	”


Clinton announced a major initiative in cooperation with more than 30 organizations, including the MasterCard Foundation, Intel, and Microsoft.	克林顿与30多家机构宣布开展重要合作计划，万事达基金会、英特尔和微软这样大名鼎鼎的机构也身处其中。


This group has pledged more than $600 million over five years to enable 14 million girls to “attend and complete primary and secondary school.”	该组织承诺5年 投资6亿多美元，旨在让1，400万女孩“完成中小学学业。


It is a wise investment.	”这是一项明智的投资。


In addition to the obvious benefits that education can deliver, increased enrollment in secondary schools offers advantages to all levels of society.	除去显而易见的好处，提高中学入学率能使社会各个层面得到提升。


For example, requiring girls to continue their education reduces child marriage.	比方说，要求女孩继续接受教育可以减少未成年人婚姻。


In the developing world, one girl in seven is married by the age of 15; nearly half become mothers by the age of 18.	在发展中世界，7个女孩中就有1个在15岁结婚；


Girls attending secondary school, by contrast, are much less likely to marry and bear children before reaching adulthood.	18岁花季少女已经有一半做了母亲。 相反上中学的女孩不太可能在成年前结婚生育。


Providing girls with secondary education also reduces family sizes, and, when they do become mothers, it improves their children’s health and chances of survival.	让女孩上中学还能控制家庭规模，并且当她们成为母亲时，可以改善孩子的健康、提高存活率。


One study found that in developing countries where one girl in five received a secondary education, women had, on average, more than five children.	一项研究发现在有五分之一女孩接受中学教育的发展中国家，妇女平均生育5个子女。


Where half of the girls received secondary education, the average was just three children, and child and infant mortality were much lower.	而在半数女孩上过中学的发展中国家，女性平均子女数仅为3个，且儿童及婴儿死亡率大幅降低。


Access to secondary schools can also boost enrollment in primary schools, reducing the likelihood that parents will keep their children at home to work or, as is often the case with girls, to help with domestic chores.	升中学还可以提高小学入学率，减少家长让孩子在家干活或女孩在家帮忙做家务的可能性。


If children have no choice but to return from primary school to the farm, why send them to school at all?	如果孩子们小学毕业后除回家务农外别无选择，那么上学究竟有什么意义？


Providing secondary education need not cost a fortune.	提供中学教育并不需要太大投入。


Poor countries can move swiftly to expand opportunities for education at a much lower cost than is commonly imagined.	相对贫困的国家迅速开展中学教育的花费比一般认为的要少得多。


Most village primary schools are used for education only a small fraction of the time.	多数农村小学只有一小部分时间被用来上课。


Appropriate modifications could turn these into secondary schools for part of each day, bringing secondary education closer to children’s homes.	适度改建可以让上述学校在一天中的某段时间负担起中学的职能，把中学教育送到孩子们家门口。


For girls, secondary education closer to home would have the added benefit of reducing the risks of sexual abuse and violence.	对女孩而言，中学离家近还有降低性虐待和暴力风险的好处。


Every year, roughly 60 million girls are sexually assaulted at or on their way to school.	每年在学校或上学途中遭受性侵的女孩约有6，000万人之多。


Using facilities that are more familiar and more conveniently located could reduce this barrier to attendance.	利用更为方便和熟悉的设施可以进一步降低入学障碍。


Likewise police stations, post offices, and other existing public facilities might, with modest adjustments, provide space for secondary schools for at least part of the day.	同样，警局、邮局和其他现有公共设施可以进行适当改建，以便至少在一天中的某段时间担负起中学的职能。


Modular classrooms, which can be built quickly and inexpensively, could provide local employment and supplement existing school facilities.	可以快速、低成本构建模块化教室，既有利于当地就业也可以对当地现有学校设施构成补充。


Programs in the United States like “Teach for America” and “Teach for All” can serve as powerful new models for recruiting the teachers that will be needed for new secondary schools.	美国像“美国教师”和“全民教师”这样的计划可以为新建中学有效招募所需的教师。


Life expectancy is rising, but retirement ages often remain in the late 50s, implying that pensioners could be encouraged to become teachers.	人类预期寿命不断上升，但退休年龄依然停留在50多岁，也就是说可以鼓励养老金领取者承担起教师的职责。


Teachers will always remain essential for students’ growth and maturity, but new digital technologies can enhance secondary education.	教师始终在学生的成长和成熟中起着不可或缺的作用，但新兴数字技术也能使中学教育有很大提高。


Online resources, such as the Khan Academy, hold great promise for delivering broad, inexpensive results in education.	汗学院等在线资源在提供广泛、廉价的教育服务过程中大有希望。


The world stands at a crossroads.	世界现在正处在十字路口。


American corporations donate about $7 billion annually to global health, but only $500 million to education in developing countries.	美国企业每年为全球健康捐献约70亿美元，但仅有5亿美元流向发展中国家教育捐赠。


Yet young people are the fastest-growing segment of the population in the developing world.	而 发展中国家增长最快的群体就是年轻人。


Uneducated, they could become an unprecedented burden as their societies age.	如果得不到必须的教育，他们完全可能随着社会老龄化而成为前所未有的负担。


But if they are provided with secondary education, they will be able to transform their future – and ours – for the better.	但如果他们能接受中学教育，就能为我们和他们自己创造更美好的未来。


The Secret Success of Abenomics	安倍经济学的低调成功


TOKYO – Tokyo is in the midst of a construction boom, with old high-rise office and apartment buildings being rebuilt in more modern and elegant forms, all while maintaining stringent environmental standards.	发自东京——在处于建设热潮中的东京，众多旧高层办公和公寓建筑正在保持严格环境标准的情况下以更优雅现代的样式重建。


So bright is Tokyo’s gleam – which is sure to impress visitors at the 2020 Olympic Games – that the city might seem like an anomaly, given gloomy reports that, after decades of stagnation, Japan’s GDP growth remains anemic.	如今这座城市是如此光洁明亮，以至于在打动2020年东京奥运会游客的同时也令外界许多人觉得不过是些假象，因为他们早就看过了许多情绪负面的报告，声称在经历几十年的停滞后日本的GDP增长仍然一蹶不振。


In fact, even the small cities of Kushiro and Nemuro in Hokkaido, located near the disputed islands between Russia and Japan, are being rebuilt and modernized at a brisk pace, as is apparent to any tourist (as I was this summer).	事实上正如任何旅游者（比如今年夏天的笔者）触目可见的那样，即使是在北海道的钏路和根室这样位处日俄有争议岛屿附近的小城市都在以轻快的速度进行重建和现代化。


What explains this divergence between disappointing national economic data and visible progress in Japanese cities?	那么究竟是什么原因产生了令人失望的全国经济数据与日本各城市的显著进步之间的这种反差？


It may be a problem of calculation.	这可能是一个计算上问题。


According to official data, Japan’s economic growth slowed by one percentage point, in real terms, in the 2014 fiscal year.	根据官方数据，日本的经济增长在2014财年的实际增长率下降了一个百分点。


Yet, according to Bank of Japan researchers, tax data suggest that growth was more than three percentage points higher than the official figure, implying that GDP was some ¥30 trillion (about $300 billion dollars) larger than officially reported.	然而根据日本银行的研究，税收数据表明增长比官方数字高出超过三个百分点，这意味着GDP规模比官方报告的数字多出约30万亿日元（约3000亿美元）。


There is good reason to believe that it was.	我们有充分的理由相信这是真的。


Tax data account for distributed GDP and cover a broader swath of economic activity than traditional measures of output.	税收数据对GDP进行了分门别类的统计，因此也覆盖了比传统产出测量方式更广泛的经济活动。


And, because few taxpayers have incentives to inflate their reported income, the resultant figures are unlikely to be overestimates.	同时很少纳税人会故意报高自身收入，所得的数字也不太可能出现高估。


More insights into Japan’s real progress can be derived from another source: the new System of National Accounts 2008, the latest international statistical standard for national accounting by the United Nations Statistical Commission.	对日本真实发展的更深入了解可以从另一个来源得出：联合国统计委员会发布的最新国际统计标准——新的2008年版国民经济计算准则。


Tentative calculations using Japanese Cabinet Office data suggest that, according the standard of the 2008 SNA – which counts research and development, including intellectual property, among firms’ capital assets – Japan’s 2011 GDP exceeded the published data by 4.2%, or ¥19.8 trillion.	使用日本内阁办公室数据的暂定计算表明，根据2008年国民账户经济计算准则——将研发工作，包括知识产权也计入企业资本资产——日本2011年的GDP总额超过公布数据要多出4. 2％（或19.


A third failing of traditional GDP measurements for Japan lies in the fact that they account only for what is actually produced within the country’s borders.	日本传统GDP测量方式的第三个缺点在于只计算了日本国内的产值。


But we live in a globalized world, and nowadays, Japan’s citizens are acquiring considerable income from Japanese activities abroad.	而我们其实生活在一个全球化的世界，日本国民正在从众多国外经济活动中获得可观的收入。


Given this, gross national income (GNI) might be a more accurate representation of Japan’s economic circumstances.	因此，国民总收入（GNI）可能更准确地反映日本的经济情况。 在2015财年，日本的国民总收入增长了2.


In the 2015 fiscal year, Japan’s GNI grew by 2.5%, while its GDP grew by only 0.8%.	5％，而国内生产总值只增长了0. 8％。


Because Japan’s nominal GDP is now close to ¥500 trillion yen, the 1.7-percentage-point difference between GNI and GDP amounts to ¥8.5 trillion.	因为日本的名义GDP现在接近500万亿日元，所以GNI和GDP两者之间1. 7个百分点的差额相当于8.


To be sure, foreign activities are not the only reason why GNI is growing more quickly than GDP.	当然，国外经济活动并不是GNI增长速度高于GDP的唯一原因。


Even within Japan, many firms have lately been earning revenues at record rates, thanks largely to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic revitalization efforts.	即使在日本国内，许多企业在很大程度上受益于首相安倍晋三的经济振兴努力而实现了创纪录的收入增幅。


In fact, the gradual economic growth spurred by so-called Abenomics, together with the low exchange rate that has prevailed until recently, has helped to spur the tourism that has enabled cities like Kushiro and Nemuro to fund their reconstruction.	事实上在所谓安倍经济学所激发的逐步经济增长与直到最近一直奉行的日元低汇率政策相结合之下，日本旅游业已经得到了振兴，使钏路和根室这样的城市都能够有钱实施重建。


Taken together, the growth of Japan’s GNI and the implications of tax data and 2008 SNA suggest that Japan’s economy has been doing significantly better lately than the national statistics seem to suggest.	综合起来，日本国民总收入的增长以及税收数据和2008年版国民经济计算准则的影响表明，日本经济的表现明显优于国家统计数据。


Though each new calculation focuses on a different year, we can use them heuristically to estimate unaccounted-for economic progress in Japan.	虽然每个新的计算方式关注的年份不同，但我们可以使用它们去试探性地预测日本未来的经济发展。


The result is substantial: a ¥30 trillion annual adjustment for distributed income and ¥19.8 trillion adjustment for R&D and intellectual property.	结果是巨大的：重新计算下的每年30万亿日元分类收入和19. 8万亿日元研发和知识产权价值，再加上超过8.


Add the GNI adjustment of over ¥8.5 trillion, and Japan’s economy is nearly ¥70 trillion, or 14%, larger than official data suggest.	5万亿日元的GNI/GDP差额，日本的经济将比官方数据多出近70万亿日元（或14％）。


While this is only a rough calculation, it is impossible to deny the potential differences that more comprehensive calculations can make.	虽然这只是一个粗略的计算，但是不可能否认更全面的计算可能产生的潜在差异。


This has important policy implications.	这具有重要的政策含义。


According to official statistics, which place Japan’s GDP at ¥500 trillion, Japan is still ¥100 trillion away from achieving a key goal of the second iteration of Abenomics: to achieve a ¥600 trillion economy.	根据官方统计，日本GDP为500万亿日元，距离实现安倍经济学的第二次迭代关键目标——经济总量达到600万亿日元——还差100万亿日元。


The revised reading of the statistics would reduce that shortfall by 70%.	经修订的统计数字会将这一差距减少70％。


Simply put, Abenomics is not getting enough credit.	简而言之，外界并没有对安倍经济学给予足够的信任。


The incompleteness of the official view can be frustrating, especially as Japanese stocks suffer setbacks, even as Chinese stocks increase, despite the fact that, unlike Japan, China faces considerable hidden economic risks.	官方观点的不全面性是令人沮丧的，尤其是尽管中国面临相当大的隐藏经济风险而日本没有，但日本股市却受挫而中国股市上涨的时候。


A more comprehensive and accurate representation of Japan’s economic progress is vital to give investors the confidence that Japan’s economy merits.	对日本经济发展更全面准确的呈现对投资者对日本经济的信心至关重要。


That, in turn, would bolster the impact of Abenomics even further.	反过来，这将进一步加强安倍经济学的影响。


Iraqi Hope Dies Last	伊拉克希望终于幻灭


BAGHDAD – Ten years have passed since Saddam Hussein was removed from power, following more than three decades of tyrannical rule.	从萨达姆·侯赛因三十余年残暴统治被推翻的那一刻起，10年时间已经过去了。


The dream of Iraqis after Saddam’s fall was to build a new, prosperous, and democratic Iraq.	伊拉克人在萨达姆倒台后的梦想是建立繁荣民主的全新伊拉克。


A country at peace with itself and its neighbors, with a constitution upholding basic human rights and the rule of law, was the desire of almost everyone.	几乎所有人都希望与国内民众及周边国家和平共处，并制定宪法保障基本的人权与法治。


But the United States and its allies, lacking a coherent vision of Iraq’s future, much less a sound policy for the post-Saddam era, declared Iraq an occupied country, with a US-appointed administrator to run the country, who soon decided to dismantle all existing security, military, and media institutions.	但美国和盟国并未制定关于伊拉克未来的清晰计划，更谈不上后萨达姆时代的明智政策。 他们宣布伊拉克为被占领国并接受美国任命官员的管理，而此人则迅速决定解散所有安全、军事和媒体机构。


He also introduced a de-Baathification law, which evicted members of the Baath Party from official positions without legal recourse, paving the way for sectarianism and, ultimately, communal violence and unrest.	他还执行了清除复兴党的法律，在未经法律程序批准的情况下驱逐任职的复兴党党员，为宗派主义及最终的群体暴力动荡打下了基础。


These unfortunate – and ultimately disastrous – events established an unstable foundation in a strategic country at the core of a highly troubled yet vital region of the world.	中东地区麻烦不断却对世界至关重要，上述不幸（最终甚至是灾难性）事件为中东核心战略国伊拉克奠定了动荡的主基调。


As Iraq moved through progressive phases of mismanagement over the subsequent ten agonizing years, the country fractured, shattering the dreams of Iraqis who saw their beloved homeland once again sliding toward authoritarianism, with almost daily violations of the constitution.	伊拉克在之后痛苦的十年里经历了管理不善的所有阶段，国家的破裂彻底粉碎了伊拉克人的梦想。 他们眼睁睁看着自己心爱的祖国再次滑向独裁，看着违宪行为成了家常便饭。


The world watched, seemingly helpless to do anything.	世界似乎只是无奈地冷眼旁观。


Iraq’s last general election, in 2010, brought hope of recovery in the form of a power-sharing agreement among Sunni, Shia, and Kurds, which was supposed to ensure that the country did not revert to dictatorship.	2010年举行的伊拉克大选带来了逊尼派、什叶派及库尔德人重新执行分权协议、避免国家重新陷入独裁的希望。


Iraqiya, which I lead, was the largest electoral bloc to emerge from that vote. But, despite our status, we agreed to give up the leadership position afforded by the Constitution in the belief that power-sharing and respect for the rights of all Iraqis is the only formula for governing the country democratically.	我所领导的“伊拉克集团”是那次选举中崭露头角的最大的选举集团，尽管拥有特殊地位，我们仍同意放弃宪法赋予的领导权，因为相信分权和对所有伊拉克人权利的尊重才是民主治国的唯一法则。


These hopes, however, soon vanished, as Iraq’s two-term prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, subsequently reneged on the agreement.	但由于伊拉克两任总理马利基随后违背协议，这样的希望不久就破灭了。


Today, the very human rights that were guaranteed by the constitution are being violated, with a politicized judiciary routinely abused and manipulated in order to justify the prime minister’s actions.	今天，宪法所保障的人权受到侵犯，政治化的司法系统时常涉嫌操纵和滥用权力，为总理的所作所为寻找借口。


Instead of keeping the Maliki government in check, the courts facilitate its quest for ever-greater power.	法院不仅不约束马利基政府，反而助长其对更大权力的欲求。


Making matters worse for ordinary Iraqis, public services have deteriorated to a dismal level, and unemployment is rising sharply, despite public expenditure in excess of $500 billion over the seven years of Maliki’s rule.	尽管马利基执政七年间公共开支超过5，000亿美元，但失业率急剧上升、公共服务恶化到令人沮丧的程度令普通的伊拉克民众难以忍受。


Sectarianism and racism have become a regular feature of the political landscape.	宗派主义和种族主义已成为司空见惯的政治现象。


Corruption is rampant, and Baghdad is now considered one of the world’s worst places to live.	腐败现象比比皆是，巴格达现在被视为世界最糟糕的住处。


If Iraq continues along its current disastrous path, mayhem and civil war will be the inevitable outcome, with dire consequences for the entire region.	如果伊拉克沿着目前这条灾难性道路越走越远，混乱和内战将会成为必然的结果，对总体地区局势也将产生严重的后果。


Yet Iraqis continue to hope for a better future.	但伊拉克人仍未放弃对美好未来的希望。


The advent of a new electoral cycle, which begins with local elections in April, may provide another opportunity to put Iraq on the right path.	随四月地方选举开始的新的选举周期可能让伊拉克走上正确的道路。


But that can happen only if the voting is free and the counting is fair.	但只有投票自由、计票公正才有可能实现这样的目标。


The current government, however, is unable to supervise free and fair elections.	但现政府无法监督一场自由公正的选举。


Significant measures must be taken, including the active involvement of neutral international agencies and observers to keep the government in check and ensure that voters can have their say.	中立国际机构��观察员必须积极参与，约束政府行为并确保选民意愿真正有机会表达。


We are hopeful that Iraqis, who have had their fill of sectarian political parties, will be allowed freely to choose candidates who embrace a non-sectarian and non-racist agenda.	我们希望经历过宗派执政的伊拉克人能够自由选择宗派及种族主义之外的候选人。


Given a new law limiting senior officials to two terms in office, we also hope to see new and accountable leaders in positions of power.	鉴于新法条限定高级官员只能连任两届，我们也希望看到新掌权的负责任的领导人。


I am certain that power-sharing, reconciliation, and accountability are the only way forward for Iraq.	我坚信分权、和解和问责制是伊拉克唯一的出路。


Let us hope that this spring – ten years after the US invasion and Saddam’s downfall – brings Iraq a new and constructive beginning.	让我们祈祷美国入侵、萨达姆倒台十年后的这一个春天能为伊拉克带来全新建设性的开始。


Securing a More Secure World	保卫更安全的世界


Committee reports are usually deadly dull, and UN committee reports are among the dullest.	委员会的报道常常是枯燥之极，而联合国安理会报告的枯燥程度可谓是登峰造极。


But the recent report of the UN Secretary General’s High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change broke that rule.	但是最近的一份联合国改革问题高级别名人小组起草的有关威胁、挑战和变革的报告却是一个例外。


Sixteen political leaders and former diplomats combined principle with political realism to produce the most comprehensive proposals for change since the UN was created in 1945.	十六位政治领袖和前外交部长把理论和政治现实相结合，撰写了这份报告，呼吁联合国进行一次自1945年成立以来最全面的改革。


Secretary General Kofi Annan is to present the report in March. Then it will be up to governments to act.	联合国秘书长科菲·安南将在2005年3月提交这份报告，随后交由各个政府付诸实践。


Many early comments focus on the Panel’s recommendations for enlarging the UN Security Council from 15 to 24 members.	争论焦点集中在名人小组建议将安理会席位从目前的15席扩大到24席。


The report proposes two alternatives. One would add six new permanent members – such as India, Brazil, Egypt, South Africa, Japan, and Germany – as well as three two-year members.	报告提出两个方案，一是增加六个新常任理事国，如印度、巴西、埃及、南非、日本和德国，以及三个两年制临时成员国。


The other alternative would create eight semi-permanent members with renewable four-year terms and one additional member chosen for a two-year term.	二是增加八个半常任理事国，每四年更新一次，以及一个两年制临时成员国。


Either proposal would entail amending the UN Charter, which requires marshaling the support of a two-thirds majority of the 191 member states, including the five veto-wielding members of the current Security Council.	不管哪一建议被接纳，《联合国宪章》都将面临修改。 这将需要191个安理会成员中的三分之二表示支持，其中包括现任安理会五个有否决权的常任理事国。


Skeptics doubt that this is feasible.	为此，人们怀疑宪章修改的可行性。


But focusing on enlargement of the Security Council risks diverting attention from the rest of the Panel’s analyses and 101 recommendations for reform, many of which do not require amending the Charter.	扩大安理会的风险性成为焦点话题，让人们反而忽略了名人小组改革报告中的其余内容和101项改革建议，这些建议大多并不需要修改宪章。


According to the report, the General Assembly has lost vitality, the Security Council must be more proactive, the Commission on Human Rights suffers from a legitimacy deficit, the Secretariat should be more professional and better organized, and major institutional gaps hinder responses to economic and social threats to international security.	报告称，联合国大会已失去活力，安理会应更积极主动，人权委员深受合法性不足之苦，秘书处应更为专业，更有条理，且大部分制度体系的不完整也使得联合国在处理国际社会面临的经济和社会威胁时反应过慢。


The report is critical of the organization’s performance on genocide in Bosnia, Rwanda, and Darfur, as well as the late response to HIV/AIDS.	报告还批评了联合国对发生在波斯尼亚、卢旺达和达尔弗尔的种族屠杀行为的处理方法以及对于艾滋病情况处理的迟缓行动。


In the panel’s words, the UN was created above all “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war,” but today the biggest security threats we face “go far beyond states waging aggressive war.	用名人小组的话说，联合国是高于一切的，它“要拯救子孙后代免受战争煎熬”。 但是今天我们面临的最大的威胁“不仅仅来自国家与国家之间发动的战争。


The preoccupation of the UN founders was with state security.	对联合国创始成员来说，当务之急是国家安全。


When they spoke of creating a new system of collective security they meant it in the traditional military sense.”	当他们谈到要建立一套新的集体安全机制，他们指的是军事方面。 ”


Today the threats are from non-state actors as well as states, and they jeopardize human security as well as that of states.	当今的威胁来自于国家，更来自于民间组织。 他们不仅危害了人类的安全，也危害到了国家安全。


Collective security nowadays means a broader sharing of responsibility for each other’s security.	在今天，集体安全意味着为彼此的安全承担更多的责任。


The Panel deals forthrightly with the new transnational threats posed by terrorists and the spread of weapons of mass destruction.	名人小组还毫不避讳地讨论了由恐怖分子和大规模杀伤性武器蔓延造成的新越国界威胁。


Its members agreed that there could be “nightmare scenarios” that combine the two and might require the preventive use of force.	小组成员认为这种结合了上述两种威胁的“噩梦般的情节”可能需要动用防卫性武力。


They urge strengthening the non-proliferation regime through more intrusive inspections, and negotiation of arrangements for internationally guaranteed access to nuclear enrichment and reprocessing services, rather than allowing countries to construct them for themselves.	他们督促通过更深入的调查来加强禁止核扩散国际建制，同时还要通过谈判决定全球范围内核燃料浓缩和回收的准入条件，而不是允许各个国家为了自身利益利用核燃料。


They back President George W. Bush’s Proliferation Security Initiative aimed at stopping traffic in weapons of mass destruction.	名人小组支持美国总统乔治W·布什的防扩散安全倡议，这项倡议旨在大规模杀伤性武器的禁运。


On terrorism, they break the long UN impasse over finding a definition, condemning all attacks against civilians, and propose a number of measures that member states should take.	在恐怖主义问题上，他们打破了联合国长期以来的僵局，没有一如既往地忙着为“恐怖主义”下定义，或者谴责所有针对平民百姓的袭击，而是提出了一系列可供成员国采取的措施。


Regarding preventive use of force, traditional interpretations of Article 51 of the UN Charter (which provides a right of self-defense) allow a threatened state to take pre-emptive action in the face of imminent attack, but not to use force preventively against longer term threats.	至于动用防卫性武力，联合国宪章第五十一条款（有关自我防卫的权利）长期以来都是这样解释的：允许受到威胁的国家在面临即将到来的袭击时采取预先行动，但不适用于长期威胁。


The Panel would broaden that interpretation to allow the preventive use of force in some instances, but only if approved by the Security Council.	名人小组将放宽这一解释，允许在一些情况下动用防卫性武力，但是要得到安理会的批准。


The Security Council would judge the legitimacy of such action by whether it met the age-old criteria of just war: the seriousness of the threat, the purpose of the response, whether force is a last resort, whether it is used in a proportionate way, and whether there is a reasonable balance of good and bad consequences.	安理会将根据长期以来正义战争的标准来判定这种行动是否合法，包括：威胁严重程度、反抗目的，以及除武力外是否别无选择，武力运用是否恰如其分，所导致的结果是否好坏平衡。


In that sense, President Bush won half his argument: preventive force can be justified, but not unilaterally.	如此说来，布什总统的论点对错参半，因为先发制人战略是有理可倚的，但不应采取单边行动。


Afghanistan would fit; Iraq would not.	布什总统的理论可能适合阿富汗，但对伊拉克就不一定了。


Critics complain that this approach places too much trust in a Security Council that can be paralyzed by politics and the veto.	批评家们批评名人小组的这一建议赋予了安理会过多信任，容易陷入政治之争和一票否决的漩涡而无法自拔。


Enlarging the Council could make maters worse.	而扩大安理会更是雪上加霜。


A state threatened by terrorist attacks originating in another state might feel less patient than a majority of the Council about what is the “last resort.”	如果一个国家收到源于另一个国家恐怖分子的威胁，在“是否别无选择”这一方面他可能比安理会的大多数成员更焦躁���安。


In Rwanda and Kosovo, the Security Council failed to act in time to save thousands of lives.	在卢旺达和科索沃，安理会没能及时采取行动去拯救成千上万人的生命。


Is there an alternative to waiting for the Security Council and acting unilaterally?	除了等待安理会采取行动和由国家采取单边行动以外，就没有其他方法了吗？


Kosovo and Iraq provide instructive examples.	科索沃战争和伊拉克战争是两个很好的例子，值得思考。


In the former, the prospect of a Security Council veto prevented action, and a regional organization (NATO) acted without UN authorization.	在科索沃战争中，由于对安理会动用一票否决充满期待，从而阻止了联合国采取行动，而一个地域组织（北约）未经联合国授权就擅自采取军事行动。


Although this called the legality of the action into question, the intervention benefited from a widespread sense of political legitimacy that limited its negative effects on international order.	尽管这一军事行动的合法性受到了质疑，但是它的干预得益于普遍认同的政治合法性，从而减少了对国际秩序可能产生的负作用。


In the case of the Iraq War, President Bush never established a broad consensus that might have provided legitimacy in the face of a veto.	在伊拉克一战中，若美国能获得国际舆论的支持，那么它所采取的行动即使面对否决票也能获得一定的合法性，但是布什总统没有这么做。


Countries such as France and Germany that opposed action in Iraq were willing to use force in Kosovo despite the absence of Security Council authorization.	法德等国虽然反对美在伊战中的行为，但都在未经安理会批准的情况下出兵科索沃。


If states feel compelled to act in the case of Council stalemate, they should know that they would do less damage to their reputations if they act within the Panel’s guidelines for legitimacy, even if they fail to satisfy its criterion for legality.	可见，如果一国在联合国处于僵局的情况下被迫采取行动，他们应该知道只要他们遵守名人小组的合法性指导方针，即使没有达到标准，他们的国际声誉也会少受损害。


No single report can create a more secure world, but those who support that goal must hope that governments and their publics will consider seriously the Panel’s recommendations.	没有一份报告可以建立一个更加安全的世界，但是怀有这一目标的人们一定希望政府和他们的公众会认真地考虑名人小组的建议。


Securing Europe’s Energy Future	确保欧洲未来的能源安全


Most Europeans agree that reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy is crucial to Europe’s security and prosperity; that energy can be used as a political weapon, as when Russia shut off gas to Ukraine in January 2006; and that Europe is far too dependent on energy supplies from undemocratic and unstable countries or regions.	绝大多数欧洲人都认为可靠、负担得起、可持续的能源对于欧洲的安全和繁荣至关重要； 能源可以被用作政治武器，比如俄罗斯在2006年切断了乌克兰的天然气供应；


Yet, despite wide agreement on these matters, there is little consensus about how to address them.	而欧洲太过依赖于从不民主和不稳定的国家或地区进口能源。 然而，尽管大家对这些问题有广泛的共识，对于如何应对这些问题却很少有意见一致的地方。


Both boldness and consensus are urgently needed, and those who doubt that Europe is capable of either can take heart from two recent European Commission decisions: a politically ambitious proposal to force the complete separation of networks of pipelines and wires from the companies that supply gas and electricity; and a proposal that Gazprom and other non-EU businesses can control Union energy assets only if they meet tough new conditions, including reciprocal access to, say, Russia’s market for EU energy companies.	勇气胆识和意见一致都是我们现在所迫切需要的，而那些怀疑欧洲是否能做到其中之一的人可以从欧盟委员会最近的两个决定中受到鼓舞：一项在政治上雄心勃勃的提议要迫使管道和线路网络从供应天然气和电力的公司手里完全分离出去； 另一项提议是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司和其他非欧盟企业只有在满足苛刻的新条件后才能控制联盟的能源资产，这些条件包括相互进入对方的市场，比如让欧盟能源公司进入俄罗斯的市场。


But the fundamental problem remains Europe’s vulnerability over energy: an emerging divide and rule strategy over the supply of gas that must be confronted head on.	但是根本的问题还在于欧洲在能源上的脆弱性：我们必须奋起对抗在天然气供应上出现的分而治之的战略。


Today’s preference by individual EU members to act unilaterally on energy must be replaced by a common energy policy based on solidarity among member states and unity in defending EU interests vis-à-vis external partners. After all, such solidarity is what allowed Europe to prosper and integrate over the past 50 years.	今天欧盟的成员国倾向于在能源问题上单独行动的现象必须由共同的能源政策所取代，这种共同的能源政策应该是基于成员国的团结一致并且联合起来保护欧盟相对于外部合作伙伴的利益。


So why not stick to a winning formula where energy is concerned?	不管怎样，正是这种团结一致在过去50年里带来了欧洲的繁荣和一体化。


Specifically, the EU must develop a diplomatic strategy aimed at strengthening cooperation with all major energy producing, transit, and consumer countries, while creating within the Union a mutually beneficial, open, transparent, and stable energy sector based on reciprocity.	欧盟尤其必须制定旨在加强与所有的主要能源生产、越境转运和消费国之间的合作的外交战略，同时在联盟内部创建一个基于互惠的共同受益、公开、透明和稳定的能源部门。


Until now, the geopolitical dimension of European energy security has been so neglected as to endanger the Union’s future.	到目前为止，欧洲能源安全的地缘政治部分一直被忽视以致危及到了联盟的未来。


With China seeking to secure exclusive access to energy resources in Africa and the Russian energy giant Gazprom seeking de facto control of Western companies by investing billions of euros in them, Europe can no longer afford to take a wait-and-see approach.	随着中国在非洲寻求得到专有的获取能源的渠道，以及俄罗斯的能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司通过在西方国家的公司投入几十亿欧元以便实际上控制这些公司，欧洲绝对不能再采取等着瞧的态度了。


The EU must become more active, more determined and united in securing its energy interests and those of its member states.	欧盟必须更加积极、更加坚定并且联合起来维护它和它的成员国的能源利益。


Indeed, the internal and external aspects of energy policy are interrelated.	事实上，内部和对外的能源政策是相互关联的。


Europe cannot build an efficient external policy without achieving a minimum of harmonization of member state policies regarding energy flows, interconnections, infrastructure, investment, and greater progress toward a single energy market.	如果成员国在能源流动、相互联系、基础设施、投资以及在建设单一的能源市场上取得更大的进展等问题的政策上不能取得最低限度的协调一致，欧洲就无法建立一项有效的对外政策。


Concrete provisions must be included in the new treaty to reform the EU’s institutions in order to ensure the capacity to negotiate an energy security framework with third countries.	具体的规定应该被包含在旨在改革欧盟的机构以确保与第三国进行能源安全框架谈判是的能力的新协定中。


For example, all the Union’s future energy agreements should include an “energy security clause” that explicitly outlines a code of conduct and measures to be taken in the event of a supply disruption.	比如，所有联盟未来的能源协议都应该包含“一个能源安全条款”明确地规定在遇到供应中断时应该采取的行动和措施的准则。


We should replace today’s energy unilateralism by member states with a new common energy policy based on solidarity.	我们应该用一项新的基于互惠的共同能源政策来取代现在各个成员国在能源上的单边行动做法。


A fundamental part of this must be serious consultation among member states on strategic decisions that may affect an EU partner.	这个新的共同能源政策的一个根本部分应该是成员国在做出可能会影响某个欧盟伙伴的战略决策时必须进行认真的协商。


This principle of solidarity was missing when the decision to build a Baltic Sea pipeline to directly link Russia and Germany was taken.	显然在决定建造一条通过波罗的海直接连接俄罗斯和德国的管道时这条互惠原则被人们遗忘了。


The possible negative environmental consequences of that pipeline are of serious concern to all the citizens of the Baltic region and should be given due attention.	这条管道可能对环境产生的负面影响在波罗的海地区所有民众中产生了严重的担心并且应该受到大家的关注。


Of course, a common EU security strategy is not meant to undermine the rights of individual member states to choose their internal energy policies.	当然，共同的欧盟安全战略并不意味着削弱单个成员国选择它们的国内能源政策上的权力。


But collective energy security requires increasing the EU’s ability to face – and face down – external energy challenges.	但是集体的能源安全需要提高欧盟应对——并且战胜——外部能源挑战的能力。


To achieve this, viable instruments are needed.	为了达到这一目的，我们需要可行的手段。


I suggest the creation of a new institutional post of Special Representative on foreign energy policy, which would facilitate the coordination of all policies related to the external aspects of energy security.	我提议创立一个新的对外能源政策特别代表的职位，以协调与对外能源安全相关的所有政策。


Working under the authority of the High Representative on Foreign Policy, who under the terms of the new reform treaty will also become a Vice-President of the European Commission, this post would reinforce synergies within the EU.	这一职位将在外交政策高级代表（根据新的改革协定的规定，外交政策高级代表将成为欧盟委员会的副主席）的领导下工作，能够起到加强欧盟内部协同一致的作用。


I also propose that a precise “road map” toward a common foreign policy on energy be created, which would indicate short-, medium-, and long-term objectives, together with a specific timeframe for their implementation.	我同时提议建立一个在能源上的共同外交政策的明确的“路线图”，该路线图将明确短期、中期和长期的目标，以及实现这些目标的时间框架。


The existing Energy Charter Treaty – including the Transit Protocol – must remain a cornerstone of Europe’s energy security policy.	现有的能源宪章条约包括越境转运议定书必须继续成为欧洲能源安全政策的基石。


The EU must continue to insist that Russia ratify it, stipulating that Russia is already bound by its terms.	欧盟必须继续坚持要求俄罗斯签署该条约，规定俄罗斯已经受到其条款的约束。


The EU should also negotiate a framework document in the context of the next Partnership and Cooperation Agreement negotiations in order to clarify the obligations contained in the Treaty, in particular its Transit Protocol.	欧盟同时应该在下一个伙伴和合作协议谈判中商定一个框架文件以明确能源宪章条约，尤其是越境转运议定书中所包含的义务。


Common threats to Europe’s energy security demand a common response.	欧洲能源安全所受到的共同威胁要求我们作出共同的回应。


In building the means to secure Europe’s energy future, we will also renew the spirit of European integration and give new strength to the EU as a global actor.	在建立确保欧洲未来能源安全的手段时，我们应该重温欧洲一体化的精神并且给欧盟作为一支全球力量注入新的能量。


The energy challenge that confronts Europe calls for an ambitious and courageous approach.	欧洲面临的能源挑战呼唤我们采取雄心勃勃和勇敢的方式进行行动。


Today’s EU was built on concrete achievements, combining vision and the instruments needed to implement it.	今天的欧盟是建立在实实在在的成就、联合的前景以及贯彻它所需要的手段之上的。


In the interests of our common security, we must not forsake that legacy.	面对我们共同的安全利益，我们绝对不能丢掉这一遗产。


Securing the Future of Energy	确保未来能源安全


PALO ALTO – Today’s huge global energy problems in no small measure reflect the essentially nineteenth-century business plans that three of the world’s largest industries are still pursuing.	帕洛阿托——当今世界巨大的全球能源问题在很大程度上反映了三大工业仍然沿用的十九世纪经营方案。


Electric utilities still largely burn fossil fuels and sell the power to homes and businesses.	电力公司在大体上仍然依赖化石燃料为家庭和企业供电。


Oil companies still drill for and refine petroleum, and principally sell gasoline and diesel fuel.	石油公司仍然开采石油，并主要提炼为汽柴油出售。


Automobile manufacturers still bend steel into vehicles that generally must be powered by petroleum-based fuels.	汽车生产企业仍然用钢铁制造车辆，他们生产的汽车仍然必须依靠以石油为基础的燃料驱动。


Until recently, each of these giant industries was comfortable continuing on its familiar and comfortable nineteenth-century path into the twenty-first century.	直到不久前，这三大工业仍然在二十一世纪继续心安理得地沿用十九世纪熟悉的老套路。


Each had also succeeded in getting government to insulate it against any need to make fundamental changes.	三大工业也成功获得政府的保护，因此无需进行任何实质性的变革。


But recent developments are beginning to create increasingly heavy seas for these industries.	但近来的事态发展开始让三大工业的生存环境越来越险恶。


Indeed, many observers detect approaching storms of epic proportions.	实际上，许多观察家都预感到风暴的临近。


What has happened?	究竟发生了什么？


First, evidence of climate change has begun to convince almost all climatologists and many other informed observers that our current approach to producing and using energy is very dangerous to the biosphere.	首先，气候变化的证据已经说服几乎所有的气候学家和许多了解内情的观察人士，让他们相信我们目前沿用的能源制造和使用方法会给生物圈的安全带来威胁。


Because changes in carbon dioxide emissions, unlike pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide, cannot be easily detected, and because of the multi-century persistence of CO2 in the atmosphere, the problem of reducing its level in the atmosphere is much harder to solve than are other environmental problems.	因为二氧化碳排放量的变化与二氧化硫和二氧化氮等污染物不同，很难被人们所轻易察觉，还因为二氧化碳成份已经在大气中存在了几个世纪之久，所以降低二氧化碳 水平 的难度远高于解决其他环境问题。


Nor are we accustomed to dealing with potential exponential climate change, as phenomena such as warming lead to the release of carbon from the tundra, thereby accelerating warming.	我们尚不习惯应对指数级的气候变化，因为变暖等现象可能导致冻土带碳释放，并由此加速变暖进程。


Public debate is also confused by an “all-or-nothing” mind-set, with skeptics contending that if any portion of climate change is naturally caused (say, by the earth’s axis tilting over a period of millennia) then none of it can be anthropogenic.	“要么百分之百，要么一无所有”的极端观念也困扰着公开辩论，怀疑论者提出如果气候变化中有任何自然导致的部分（比如一千年来地球中轴线的倾斜），那么其中将不会存在任何人为因素。


Yet there is every reason for us to try to mitigate at least the anthropogenic portion of the climate change caused by CO 2 emissions and other dangerous practices, such as deforestation.	但我们完全有理由努力缓解因二氧化碳排放和森林砍伐等其他危险行为所导致的与人为活动因素有关的气候变化。


Moreover, there is deepening concern about two types of energy-related security problems: the increasing risk of violence stemming from the nature of our energy use, and the high cost of that energy.	此外，两类与能源相关的安全问题也越来越引起人们的担忧：即由能源应用特点所引发的暴力危险与日俱增，以及能源使用的成本居高不下。


The main risk of violence created by the nature of the electricity system itself is the danger of serious power outages due to physical or cyber-attacks on the increasingly fragile transmission and distribution grid.	由电力系统本身的特点所引发的主要暴力危险是由对日益脆弱的电力输配网络发起的真实或虚拟攻击所导致的严重停电事故。


Regarding oil, which dominates transportation, the high concentration of deposits in the Middle East, especially those that can be most cheaply exploited, makes oil-importing countries hostage both to terrorist attacks on the oil infrastructure and to monopoly-determined prices.	说到主宰整个运输体系的石油，它的储量、特别是可供廉价开采的储量高度集中于中东地区致使石油进口国受到对石油基础设施的恐怖袭击和垄断高油价的双重盘剥。


OPEC uses output cuts whenever possible to keep prices at levels that are at least an order of magnitude above the cost of production plus a reasonable return.	石油输出国组织一有可能就实施减产，从而使石油的销售价格大大高于生产成本与合理回报之和。


As Paul Collier of Oxford University has pointed out, the preponderance of dictatorships and autocratic kingdoms in the ranks of the largest oil exporters indicates that where these huge economic rents exist, pressures are created against economic diversification and democratization.	正如牛津大学的保罗·科利尔所指出的那样，在名列前茅的石油出口国中独裁和专制王朝占绝大多数表明只要存在如此巨大的经济租金，就必定存在抗拒经济多样化和民主化的压力。


Most terrorism, ultimately, is oil-funded.	归根结底，石油收入养活了绝大多数恐怖主义。


What Collier calls the “Bottom Billion,” the poorest one-sixth of the world, suffers the most from high oil prices.	科利尔所谓的“十亿底层民众”，也就是世界最贫困的六分之一人口在高油价下所受的苦难尤为深重。


Heavy national debt and expensive power are problems for relatively wealthy countries, but they are disasters for sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world’s poor.	沉重的国家债务和昂贵的能源价格是比较富裕国家所面对的问题，但同样的问题在撒哈拉南部非洲和世界其他贫困地区则将是一场灾难。


So what may be the solutions?	那么如何解决呢？


First, as the energy campaigner Anne Korin puts it, we need to do to oil what was done to salt just over a century ago.	首先，正如能源活动家安妮·科林所说的那样，我们需要像一个世纪前处理食盐问题那样来对待石油。


Salt had been a strategic commodity for millennia – countries fought wars over salt mines – because it was the only way to preserve meat.	几千年来食盐一直是一种战略物资，很多国家为争夺盐矿而交战，因为盐是保存肉类的唯一方法。


But the advent of electricity, refrigeration, and freezing ended salt’s monopoly relatively quickly.	但电力、冷藏和冷冻技术的问世较快地结束了食盐的垄断。


It is still a useful commodity, but no one regards salt mines any more as instruments of national power and influence.	盐仍然是一种有用的物资，但已经不再有人把盐矿当作国家权力和影响力的依托。


Oil urgently needs to suffer a similar fate.	石油也迫切需要遭受同样的命运。


Oil’s monopoly over transportation can in part be destroyed by electrification (via plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, for example), and also by second-generation biofuels, such as butanol from cellulosic feedstocks, and by algae- and waste-based biofuels.	电气化可以部分摧毁石油对交通运输的垄断（例如使用外接电源的混合电动车）和第二代生物燃料，包括从纤维素原料中提取的丁醇，以及从藻类和废弃物中提取的生物燃料。


Studies show clearly that, with time-of-day pricing, electrification of vehicles creates little need for new electricity-generating plants, and also that even with today’s coal-heavy electric grids, electrified vehicles emit less CO2 than gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles.	研究结果明确显示，在目前的价格体系下，汽车电气化并不需要新建发电厂，而且即便今天的电网仍以煤为主要能源，电气化车辆所排放的二氧化碳也低于以汽柴油为动力的车辆。


And, as the grid’s CO2 emissions are cleaned up, the vehicles’ role as a source of emissions will decline.	而且随着电网排放的二氧化碳被清理完毕，汽车所起的排放源作用也将随之下降。


It is crucial to improve the efficiency of electricity use, especially in lighting, which accounts for a very large share of demand.	提高用电效率，尤其是照明用电效率至关重要，因为照明用电在总的用电需求中占的比重很大。


LED’s are beginning to lead the way.	发光二极管正开始大行其道。


Many nations can also learn a great deal from Denmark’s creative use of waste heat for cogeneration.	许多国家也可以从丹麦对废热发电的创造性应用中得到很多启发。


Solar power is beginning to gain substantially greater prominence, especially for smaller factories and rooftops.	用于小工厂和屋顶能源的太阳能开始引起更多关注。


Germany, with its feed-in tariff, has led the way in encouraging such solar deployments, and this approach is beginning to be adopted at the state level in America.	德国的强制性入网税率先鼓励太阳能部署，而且这种方法也开始被美国采用。


Reductions in the cost of solar power, efficiency improvements, and sharply improved batteries and other means of electricity storage are helping to make possible a world of increasingly distributed energy generation, based on renewable sources.	太阳能成本降低、能效提高和大幅度改观的电池和其他储电方法正在实现以可再生资源为基础的日益分散化的能源发电。


That, in turn, promises increasing freedom from the dangers created by our vulnerable electric grids and our reliance on oil.	而这些反过来又让我们逐渐摆脱脆弱的电网系统和对石油依赖所带来的威胁。


Limiting the Security Council Veto	限制安理会否决权


PARIS – Back in 2001, France floated a proposal that the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (P5) should voluntarily refrain from using their veto power when dealing with mass-atrocity crimes.	巴黎—2001年，法国提出一项议案，建议联合国安理会五大常规任理事国（“五常”）自愿在群众暴行（mass-atrocity）犯罪问题上克制使用否决权。


And now, in the lead-up to the commemoration of this year’s 70th anniversary of the UN, French President François Hollande’s government is actively pursuing the idea again.	如今，在联合国即将迎来70周年纪念之际，法国总统奥朗德政府再次积极追求这一议案。


Could such an arrangement really work?	这一安排真的管用吗？


The predictable initial response is to dismiss the possibility out of hand.	不难预见，对该议案的最初反应是排除了它的可能性。


As Australia’s wartime prime minister, Ben Chifley, once famously remarked, “The trouble with gentleman’s agreements is that there aren’t enough bloody gentlemen.”	澳大利亚战时总理奇夫利（Ben Chifley）有一个著名的论断：“君子协定的麻烦是找不到足够的热血君子。 ”


It is indeed hard to believe that Russia and China, in particular, would be accommodating.	特别是，你很难认为俄罗斯和中国会同意这一议案。


Russia, for example, has exercised vetoes more than 100 times since 1946, most recently – and unhappily – four times since 2011 to block resolutions intended to halt the carnage in Syria.	比如，自1946年以来俄罗斯共100多次行使否决权——其中2011年以来的最近四次都是生气地驳回试图停止叙利亚大屠杀的决议。


Nor has the United States, which has used its veto some 80 times (most frequently, in recent years, on Israel-related issues), shown much enthusiasm, notwithstanding its generally strong stand on genocide and related cases.	行使过80余次否决权的美国（其中近几年来在于以色列有关的问题上更加频繁地使用否决权）也没有表现出多大的热情，尽管其对种族灭绝及相关案例的立场还是颇为强硬的。


Only the United Kingdom (which, like France itself, last resorted to the veto in 1989) has given any hint of support for the French initiative.	只有英国（和法国一样，最后一次行使否决权是在1989年）表现出支持法国议案的迹象。


The right to veto was the price demanded by China, France, Great Britain, Russia, and the US for joining the UN.	否决权是中国、法国、英国、俄罗斯和美国加入联合国所要求的交换条件。


No one believes that a formal Charter amendment to abolish or limit this right is remotely likely.	没人认为废除或限制这一权利的正式宪章修订存在一丁点可能性。


But international pressure on the P5 has been mounting for the last 15 years – and especially since the General Assembly’s unanimous embrace in 2005 of the “responsibility to protect” (R2P) principle.	但在过去15年中，对“五常”的国际压力不断增加——特别是2005年联合国大会一致通过“保护责任”（R2P）之后。


Advocates of the French position want these countries to forswear their veto when a clear majority supports proposed action to mitigate the risk of a mass-atrocity crime.	法国立场的支持者希望这些国家在明显多数建议采取降低群众暴行犯罪风险的行动时放弃否决权。


Distaste for the blocking of the Syrian resolutions has been particularly intense, and, at last count, 68 countries had given explicit support to the French proposal in various UN forums.	对阻挠叙利亚决议的厌恶尤其强大，根据最新情况，68个国家在各种联合国论坛中明确支持法国的议案。


The moral argument that the veto should not be used in cases of mass-atrocity crimes is overwhelming.	否决权不应该在群众暴行犯罪案例中使用，这一道德观点是压倒性的。


The P5 have obligations under the UN Charter, as well as international humanitarian and human rights law, not to undermine the effectiveness of the UN or that body of law.	根据联合国宪章和国际人道主义和人权法，“五常”有义务不阻挠联合国或其他法律机构的效率。


And the political argument against using the veto in these situations – that it jeopardizes the credibility and legitimacy of the Security Council, whose structure is already seen as not reflecting the geopolitical realities of the twenty-first century – should also weigh heavily on the P5.	而反对在这些情况下使用否决权的政治观点——它有损于安理会的信誉和合法性，而安理会的结构已经无法反映二十一世纪的地缘政治现实——也应该对“五常”产生较大影响。


But is it possible to craft a veto-restraint proposal to which all of the P5 can agree?	但有可能形成所有“五常”都同意的克制使用否决权的议案吗？


In January, at a conference I attended in Paris that brought together French policymakers and international experts, it became clear that a draft agreement could meet most, if not all, objections.	1月，在我参加的一次巴黎举行的法国决策者和国际专家会议上，情况清楚地表明这样一份协议草案可能遭到大多数甚至全体反对（objections）。


But it would need to have at least three key elements.	但它需要包括至少三个关键要素。


First, the agreement would have to define the relevant cases clearly – neither too widely nor too narrowly – and build on well-established R2P language.	首先，该协议必须明确定义相关案例——既不能过于广义，也不能过于狭义——并构建在现成的保护责任基础上。


The definition might be something like “situations where populations are suffering, or at imminent risk of, genocide, other crimes against humanity, or major war crimes.”	定义可以类似于“人口遭遇或有极大可能遭遇种族灭绝、其他人道罪行或严重战争罪行的情况。 ”


Second, an agreement would need to include a mechanism to determine when such cases had actually arisen.	其次，协议需要包括一个如何确定这类案例实际发生的机制。


This would need to be speedy, provide some assurance of objective assessment, and ideally generate strong concern across a wide cross-section of the international community.	这需要迅速、提供一些客观评估保证，最好能引起国际社会各部门的广泛强烈的关注。


One way to meet these needs would be to have a double trigger.	一个满足这些要求的办法是采取双重触发机制。


The first requirement would be a certification, communicated to the Security Council by the UN Secretary-General and his Office of Special Advisers on the Prevention of Genocide and R2P (which has the necessary resources, expertise, and credibility) that the case meets the agreed definition.	第一个要求是认证，由联合国秘书长及其阻止种族灭绝和保护责任特别顾问办公室（Office of Special Advisers on the Prevention of Genocide and R2P，该机构拥有必要的资源、专家和信誉）向安理会递交，证明相关案例符合约定定义。


The other would be a request for veto-restraint by at least 50 member states, including at least five members from each of the recognized geographical groupings.	另一个是由至少50个成员国提出否决权克制要求，其中包括每一个被承认的地理区的至少五个成员国。


A third key element, unattractive ethically but probably necessary politically to win the support of the US and others, would be a provision allowing any P5 member to veto when it claimed a “vital national interest” to be at stake.	第三个关键要素在道德上不具备吸引力，但在政治上可能是赢得美国和其他国家支持的关键。 它就是允许“五常”中任何一个国家在宣称事关“关键国家利益”时行使否决权。


The consolation is that trying to rely on such an escape clause in most atrocity cases would not pass the laugh test.	慰藉之处是在大部分暴行案例中祭出这一例外条款将沦为全世界的笑柄。


Could Russia and China really have used it to veto Security Council resolutions on Myanmar and Zimbabwe in, respectively, 2007 and 2008?	俄罗斯和中国真的会利用该条款分别在2007年和2008年否决安理会对缅甸和津巴布韦的决议吗？


Even given the intensity of Russia’s political and military relationship with Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, could it really claim that a resolution would place its own vital interests at risk?	即使考虑到俄罗斯与叙利亚巴沙尔·阿萨德政权的政治和军事关系，它真的会宣布叙利亚决议将对其自身官建立以构成威胁吗？