Opponents argue that the court created in 1978 under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) was designed for an era before the advent of big data, and that current practice stretches the provisions of the Patriot Act, passed after the September 11 attacks.	反对者认为1978年在外国情报监控法（FISA）下成立的法庭是为大数据出现之前的时代设计的，当前的规定扩大了9·11袭击后通过的爱国者法案的范围。


The opponents call for new laws.	反对者呼吁制定新法。


Last month, the current legal framework survived a close vote (217 to 205) in the House of Representatives.	上个月，当前法律框架在众议院以微弱多数（217对205）获得通过。


Most interesting was the split in both parties.	最有趣的是两大党派都存在分歧。


The opposition consisted of a coalition of conservative Tea Party Republicans and liberal Democrats.	反对票来自保守派茶党共和党和自由派民主党。


The issue is bound to arise again, with several pending bills proposing revisions of the FISA court.	这一问题必将再次出现，目前有待通过的几部法律建议修改FISA法庭。


Rather than demonstrating hypocrisy and acceptance of the erosion of civil liberties, the Snowden disclosures have provoked a debate that suggests the US is living up to its democratic principles in its traditionally untidy ways.	斯诺登的披露并不能证明美国的伪善和放任侵犯公民自由，它激起的争论表明美国在以其传统的混乱方式恪守着其民主原则。


America faces a trade-off between security and liberty, but the relationship is more complex than it appears at first glance.	美国面临着安全和自由之间的权衡，但它们之间的关系比乍看上去更加复杂。


The worst threats to liberties come when insecurity is greatest, so modest trade-offs can sometimes prevent greater losses.	对自由的最大威胁发生于不安全程度最高时，因此适当的权衡有时可以防止更大的损失。


Even such a great defender of freedom as Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus under the extreme conditions of the American Civil War.	即便是林肯这样的自由斗士，也在美国内战的极端环境下中止了人身保护法。


And such decisions may not be recognized as mistaken or unjust until later – consider Franklin Roosevelt’s internment of Japanese-American citizens early in World War II.	而这样的决定只有在事后才会得到承认不是错误、不存在不公——富兰克林·罗斯福在二战初期对日裔美国公民的禁制令就是明证。


In the decade after September 11, 2001, the pendulum of public sentiment swung too far to the security pole; but it has begun to swing back in the absence of major new terrorist attacks.	在2011年9月11日之后的十年中，民意的钟摆过多地朝安全倾斜； 但在并未发生新的恐怖袭击的背景下，已经开始回弹。


A recent ABC News-Washington Post poll showed that 39% of Americans now say that protecting privacy is more important than investigating terrorist threats, up from only 18% in 2002.	最新的ABC新闻台-《华盛顿邮报》民调显示，39%的美国人目前认为保护隐私比调查恐怖威胁更重要，而2002年只有18%。


Ironically, the programs that Snowden revealed seem to have helped prevent massive new terrorism events, such as a bomb attack on the New York subways.	讽刺的是，斯诺登披露的项目似乎有助于防止新的大规模恐怖主义事件，比如纽约地铁炸弹袭击。


If so, they may have prevented the implementation of more draconian anti-terrorist measures – thus enabling the current debate.	果真如此的话，它们也许防止了更严格的反恐措施的实施——从而引起当前的争论。


A New Birth for Social Democracy	社会民主的新生


ISTANBUL – Nowadays, with the global economy undergoing fundamental transformation, workers worldwide are coming under significant pressure.	伊斯坦布尔—如今，全球经济正在经历根本性变革，全世界工人面临着巨大压力。


Particularly in developed economies, social policies must adjust to provide the support that lower-income groups need, while encouraging growth and advancing wellbeing.	特别是在发达国家，社会政策必须有所调整，以提供低收入群体所需要的支持，同时刺激增长、增加福利。


The pressure has been unrelenting and inescapable.	压力是无情的，也是无可逃避的。


In the United States, real (inflation-adjusted) compensation for men with only a high school diploma fell by 21% from 1979 to 2013.	在美国，仅有高中文凭的男性的真实（经通胀调整的）报酬在1979年至2013年间下降了21%。


In much of Europe, which provides stronger wage protection, unemployment has soared, especially since the euro crisis began in 2008.	在工资保护更好的欧洲大部，失业率高企，特别是在2008年欧元危机爆发后。


Germany and some Northern European countries remain an exception, although the German labor market contains a large low-wage, mini-jobs segment.	德国和一些北欧国家仍然是例外，尽管德国劳动力市场也存在一个规模庞大的低工资、低职位细分。


Driving these trends is the changing nature of work.	这一趋势的背后是工作性质的改变。


For starters, services have been gaining ground worldwide, especially in developed economies.	首先，服务业在全世界兴盛，发达经济体尤其如此。


From 1970 to 2012, the GDP share of services in the OECD countries increased from 53% to 71%.	从1970年到2012年，服务业占经合组织国家GDP的比重从53%上升到71%。


New technology and “intelligent” machines are not only displacing many types of workers in both the manufacturing and services sectors; they are also facilitating the rise of new business models, in which individuals perform (mostly low-paid service) jobs within loose networks, instead of as dedicated employees of structured organizations.	新技术和“智能”机器不但取代了制造业和服务业的多种岗位； 也存进了新商业模式的崛起，在这些模式中，个体在松散的网络中从事（大部分为底薪服务业）岗位，而非作为结构完善的组织中的专注雇员。


For example, the ride-sharing service Uber now has 162,000 active drivers in the US alone and is displacing traditional taxi services.	比如，Uber拼车服务目前光是在美国就有162,000名活跃司机，抢了传统出租车服务的饭碗。


The startup Handy hopes that its app achieves similar success in connecting customers to independent contractors providing various household services.	创业企业Handy公司希望它的应用能取得类似的成功——Handy让客户联系独立承包商提供各种家政服务。


As technology races ahead and value chains become globalized, workers must adapt, whether by changing jobs, relocating, or acquiring new skills – a challenge that is particularly burdensome for older workers, but demands a new approach to life planning for all.	随着技术竞赛的推进和价值链的全球化，工人必须做出调整，或者换工作、换地方，或者获取新技能——这一挑战对于年迈的工人来说尤其困难，但它要求采取全新的生活规划方式。


Some people – especially those who acquired valued and flexible skills early in life, as well as those who are already in strong positions because of inherited wealth – can flourish in this new economy.	一些人——特别是那些早期就获得了高价值的灵活技能的人，以及那些通过继承财富而已经位居稳定位置的人——能够在这一新经济中出人头地。


Millions of others, however, are ill-prepared for the new age.	但成千上万其他人没有对新时代做好准备。


And it is their growing anxiety that is fueling the rise of identity politics, with populist leaders and movements appealing to ethnic or religious solidarity in the face of the impersonal forces of change.	而他们日益增加的焦虑助长了身份政治的兴盛，民粹主义领导人和运动打着非人格化变革的力量的旗号号召种族或宗教团结。


Center-left parties face a particularly difficult challenge, as their lower-income electoral base is lured away by anti-immigration, chauvinist competitors.	中左翼政党面临特别困难的挑战，因为他们的低收入选票被反移民的沙文主义竞争者吸引走了。


Making matters worse, the fragmentation of production (whether in goods or services), together with intensifying fiscal pressures, militates against these parties’ traditional reliance on collective bargaining to create systems and policies that insure citizens against shocks and misfortune.	更糟糕的是，生产的碎片化（不管是商品还是服务），加上财政压力的日渐紧迫，削弱了这些政党的传统优势——依靠集体讨价还价创造确保公民免受冲击和不幸的制度和政策。


The right-wing response to this challenge – essentially to dismantle the welfare state – would leave the majority of citizens exposed to economic shocks and structural shifts (merely reinforcing their sense of isolation and vulnerability).	右翼对这一挑战的应对措施——本质上是打破福利国家——将让大部分公民暴露在经济冲击和结构变化的影响下（这只能加剧他们的孤独感和脆弱感）。


The progressive response, by contrast, must entail strong social policies – including both insurance and protection – compatible with new technologies and types of work.	相反，进步的应对措施必须包括强大的社会政策——包括保险和保护——这些措施必须与新技术和新工作种类相容。


Concretely, this means that, instead of generalized social protection, each citizen would have a lifelong individual budget of support and security, while requiring that eligible recipients show initiative in determining how to adapt.	具体而言，这意味着每个公民将无法获得一般化的社会保护，而是有一个终身个人支持和安全预算，同时，合格的公民应该自发决定如何调整。


The main difference between the progressive vision of a society underpinned by these “citizen accounts” and the conservative idea that individual citizens should create personal retirement accounts, take out student loans, or cover their own health insurance is the public sector’s role.	以这些“公民账户”（citizen accounts）为基础的社会的进步愿景与个体公民应该自己构建个人退休金账户、自己承担学生贷款、自己解决健康保险的保守观念之间的主要区别是公共部门的角色。


Not only would the public sector take primary responsibility for financing social protection; public policy would also frame cooperation among government, employers, and recipients to eliminate duplication and bolster effectiveness and fairness.	不但公共部门要承担社会保护融资的主要责任； 公共政策也必须规范政府、雇主和公民之间的合作，以避免叠床架屋并增进效率和公平。


For example, a lifelong “family account” would enable paid maternity and paternity leave, provide child-care support, and allow time away from work to care for the sick or elderly.	比如，终身“家庭账户”可以实现带薪产假，提供儿童医疗支持，允许暂离岗位照顾病人或老人。


It would combine some general rules with income-adjusted financial contributions by the state, employers, and individuals.	它将结合一些一般规则和国家、雇主和个人缴纳的基于收入调整的金额。


A “learning account” would set the parameters for educational support, including lifelong opportunities to acquire new skills and to teach skills to others.	“学习账户”将设定教育支持参数，包括终身学习新技能的机会和教其他人技能的机会。


Basic forms of such a scheme already exist in many countries.	这一机制的基本形式已经存在于多个国家。


Norway offers 49 weeks of parental leave with full pay, or 58 weeks with 80% pay.	挪威提供49周的全薪产假或58周的80%薪产假。


Both parents must use at least 10% of this budget, but they can also roll part of it over to use when their children start school (and again benefit greatly from parental support).	双亲都必须使用至少10%的这一预算，但也可以将其中一部分暂存起来，等到孩子开始上学时再用（后者也将从父母的支持中获得巨大好处）。


Of course, few countries are as wealthy as Norway; but the principle – including support for elder care – can be applied to 30-, 40-, or 50-week periods.	当然，像挪威那样富裕的国家很少，但其中的原则——包括照顾老人的支持——可以适用于30周、40周或50周。


France, too, is now moving in this direction, creating “individual activity accounts” that aim to streamline its social policies, without sacrificing its sense of national solidarity.	法国现在也在朝这个方向迈进，成立了“个人活动账户”，旨在简化社会政策而不牺牲国民凝聚力。


To be sure, this approach will not magically resolve all of the challenges countries currently face.	诚然，这一方针不会如同魔法般解决国家当前面临的所有问题。


Fiscal constraints will remain, as governments continue to fund public goods.	只要政府继续为公共品提供资金，财政约束就会存在。


Adequate taxation of high-income individuals and high-profit companies, together with strong and sustained efforts to reduce tax avoidance, will become even more vital to defend the revenue base.	向高收入个人和暴利公司征收足够的税收，再加上强大而持续的减少避税的措施，将成为捍卫收入基础的更重要的基石。


And unions will still be needed to defend their members’ interests.	而工会也同样需要存在以捍卫成员的利益。


Nonetheless, a new social contract is needed to account for the increasingly important role that individual preferences, and individual responsibility, play in today’s world.	尽管如此，我们需要新的社会契约以体现个人偏好和个人责任在当今世界的日益重要的作用。


Each citizen should feel empowered, not isolated and abandoned, in the face of globalization and technological transformation.	面对全球化和技术转型，每一位公民都应该感到获得了权力，感到没有被孤立和抛弃。


With this approach, social democracy can again drive progress, instead of being stifled by identity politics and market fundamentalism.	根据这一方针，社会民主可以再一次推动进步而不是因为身份政治和市场原教旨主义而举步维艰。


That would serve not only the cause of social justice, but also the goal of sustaining the skilled, happy, and healthy workforce that a successful economy requires.	这不但有利于社会正义进程，也有利于维持成功的经济所需要的高技能、快乐、健康的劳动力的目标。


Social Democracy Lives in Latin America	日长夜大的拉美社会民主


MONTEVIDEO, URUGUAY – Amongst the different leftist governments in Latin America, there are new and rather strident populist regimes (Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador), which seem to grab all the attention.  But there is also a social-democratic strain to Latin American politics – a historical novelty in the region – that is gaining strength.	乌拉圭，蒙特维的亚—在拉美诸国各种左翼政府中，有些新晋的、颇为高调的民粹主义政权（委内瑞拉、玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔）似乎吸引了所有人的目光。 但在拉美政治中还有一支社会民主主义的力量—该地区一种历史性的新鲜事物—也正在壮大。


In Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, social democracy is proving that it can work.	在巴西、智利和乌拉圭，社会民主主义正在被证明是行得通的。


What distinguishes these social democratic governments from their populist counterparts is that they are composed of a left that is integrated into competitive, multi-party democracies.	社会民主政府与民粹主义政府的不同之处在于它们是一支整合为竞争性、多党制的民主政体的左翼力量。 这些社会民主主义者曾经是某支与工会紧密结盟的社会主义、革命派或改良派左翼的一部分。


These social democrats were once part of a socialist, revolutionary, or reformist left, tightly allied with labor unions.  But they ultimately accepted the market economy, and came to lean toward ideological moderation and to compete for votes in the political center.  At the same time, motivated by their political competition and their own leftist ideology, these social democratic governments emphasize both economic growth and social inclusion.	但他们最终接受了市场经济，开始淡化意识形态并在政治舞台的中心争取选票。 同时，在政治竞争者和自身左派意识形态的驱动下，这些社会民主政府既强调经济增长，也主张社会包容。


These governments’ potential to innovate depends on the political resources and power at their disposal.  The first government of the left in Uruguayan history has comparative advantages in this respect, for, unlike in Brazil and Chile, Uruguay’s social democrats have ruled as a one-party majority government.	这些政府的创新潜力依赖于他们所能支配的政治资源和权力。 在这方面，乌拉圭历史上的第一届左翼政府具有一些比较优势。


The Frente Amplio (FA) brings together nearly all the country’s left-wing groups and has the loyal support of labor unions.	因为与巴西和智利不同，乌拉圭社会民主主义者的治国之道是一个一党多数政府。 广泛阵线 (FA)集结了该国几乎所有的左翼党派并得到了工会的忠心支持。


Moreover, Uruguay’s president, Tabaré Vázquez won his office five years ago in the first round and, by uniting the posts of head of state and party leader, was able to forge a strong presidential leadership and popularity.  As a result, during the cycle of economic prosperity that lasted until 2008, with rising commodity prices and internal dynamism, the Vázquez government insured macroeconomic stability, fiscal balance, and an open market, encouraging competitiveness as well as domestic and foreign private investment.	另外，在五年前的第一轮竞选中就获胜的乌拉圭总统塔瓦雷·巴斯克斯由于身兼国家元首和党魁的双重职位，就能够打造强大的总统领导力和声望。 其结果是在上一轮一直持续到2008年的经济繁荣中，凭借不断上涨的商品价格和内部活力，巴斯克斯政府确保了宏观经济稳定、财政平衡和一个开放的市场，鼓励了竞争和国内外的私人投资。


Despite this economic orthodoxy, Vázquez’s government also pursued important policy innovations: protection of human rights was improved; tax reform, including introduction of a general, progressive income tax was undertaken and a more inclusive health system was created.	尽管在经济上循规蹈矩，巴斯克斯政府还是实施了一些重要的政策创新：人权保护状况改善； 引入并实施了包括一种普遍、递进税制的税务改革并创建了一个更具包容性的医疗体系。


In addition, the government forged policies for the poor with non-contributory income transfers and family allowances, which benefited minors and female who are heads of household.  Public education was boosted by bigger expenditure and a “one laptop per child” program.	另外，政府还通过非分摊收入转移支付和家庭补贴为贫困人口制定了相关政策，使未成年人和女性一家之主从中受益。 更多地投入和“每童一机（笔记本电脑）”项目促进了公共教育的发展。


A labor policy favorable to workers and unions revived Wage Councils for setting pay.	有利于工人和工会的劳工政策也使“工资委员会”重新获得了制定薪酬的权力。


Vázquez’s term ends in March 2010.  He cannot run again and the looming presidential election promises to be close.	巴斯克斯的任期将在2010年三月结束。 他不能竞选连任而即将到来的大选将会是势均力敌的。


Indeed, despite the government’s successes, there could be a change, as the Partido Nacional of the center-right bloc is now running neck-and-neck with the FA.	的确，尽管这届政府政绩赫赫，形势仍可能有变。 因为属于中偏左阵营的国家党现在正与FA并驾齐驱。


In the FA primaries, José Mujica won the presidential nomination by defying Vázquez and placing himself farther to the left than his rival, Danilo Astori, who represented a continuation of the present administration.  Mujica has a populist profile, based on charisma, anti-establishment stances and an appeal to the poor, which was strengthened by his personal traits and his lineage as a member of the 1960’s Tupamaros guerrilla movement, as well as his affinity for the ruling Kirchners of Argentina and the “Bolivarian” left.	Mujica以一种基于个人魅力、反体制立场和贫民英雄的民粹主义者形象示人。 他的个人特质和作为1960年代 Tupamaros 游击运动成员的家世以及与执政阿根廷的基什内尔派和“波利瓦尔”左翼的密切关系更加强化了这一形象。


Given all this, it might seem that Uruguay’s carefully constructed social-democratic alternative could unravel.	综上所述，乌拉圭悉心缔造的另类社会民主政体似乎有解体之虞。 但该国的政党体系和FA的内部权力平衡并不支持突然的激进左倾或民粹主义。


But the party system and the FA’s internal balance of power do not favor any turn abrupt toward radical left or populism.  Indeed, because populist tactics are likely to prove self-defeating in the presidential campaign, Mujica started supporting Vázquez’s administration’s record and made Astori his candidate to be Vice President, entitled to take the lead on economic policy and participate in the executive.  To stress their social democratic credentials both candidates, Mujica and Astori, have gone on pilgrimages to the United States, Brazil, and Chile.	的确，因为民粹主义策略很可能在总统大选中被证明是自杀性的，所以Mujica也开始支持巴斯克斯政府的记录并使Astori成为他的副总统候选人，主持经济政策并参与最高决策。 为了强调他们的社会民主履历，作为候选人的Mujica 和 Astori 都进行了对美国、巴西和智利的朝圣之旅。


Moreover, Uruguay’s political structures will invariably have a moderating effect on any government that might be elected.	此外，乌拉圭的政治架构也肯定会对任何一个当选政府施加调节作用。


Regardless of the president’s political slant, if the FA remains in office, the social-democratic reforms of recent years are likely to continue, although with different emphases and considerable variations imposed by the economic cycle and the government’s political resources.	不论总统的政治倾向如何，如果FA仍然执政，近几年的社会民主改革就很可能继续，尽管受经济周期和政府的政治资源影响会有不同的侧重和相当的变化。


If the FA does not win the first round, it will not secure the absolute majority that Vázquez has enjoyed, limiting the government’s capacity for innovation.  Furthermore, while Mujica has majority support within the FA, he is not the sole chief of the party but just the head of one of its competing factions.	如果FA没有在第一轮中胜出，它就不能确保巴斯克斯所享有的绝对多数，因而其政府的创新能力也会受到限制。 另外，尽管Mujica获得了FA的多数支持，但他却并非该党的唯一领袖，而只不过是其内部众多竞争派系之一的当家人而已。


His leadership will be sorely tested in the electoral campaign, and also in his presidency should he triumph.	他的领导力将会接受大选的严酷考验。 如果大选获胜，他的总统生涯也将是一个挑战。


A second term for the Frente Amplio would pose new problems, since the balance of power and political competition will be stronger, both between parties and within the left itself.  These challenges may eventually tug Uruguay’s social democrats even closer to the experiences of Brazil and Chile.  Like their European brethren, Latin America’s social democratic governments should eventually prosper through pluralist democracies and the even more demanding politics of compromise.	这些挑战可能最终将乌拉圭的社会民主党人与巴西和智利的经验拉得更近。 正如他们的欧洲同胞那样，拉美的社会民主政府应通过多元化的民主和更苛刻的妥协政治最终走向成熟。


Socialism or Global Division?	社会主义抑或全球性分化？


For the first time in history, we have the knowledge, the technology, and the wealth to design a different world.	我们有史以来第一次具有了设计一个不同的世界所需要的知识、技术以及财富。


We have the resources to “make poverty history.”	我们具有“让贫穷成为历史”的资源。


But, though we have the power to change the world, we are not taking the steps needed to do so.	但是，尽管我们有能力改变世界，但是我们并没有采取措施这样去做。


In 2000, the world’s governments adopted the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which aim to halve global poverty by 2015.	在2000年，世界各国政府通过了联合国千年发展目标。 这一目标是在2015年将全球贫困减少一半。


Yet the international community has lacked the political will needed to meet these basic responsibilities to humanity, causing people to lose faith in politics.	但是，国际社会缺乏满足这些人类的基本责任所需要的政治意愿，引起人们对政治丧失信念。


Unless we take action, our citizens will lose hope in the power of democracy – or find hope in extremism, fundamentalism, and violence.	除非我们采取行动，否则我们的公民们就会对民主的力量失去希望，或者在极端主义、原教旨主义以及暴力中寻找希望。


To restore people’s trust not only in politics, but also in their own potential, our policies must guarantee responsible governance and institutions that work for and with responsible citizens.	为了恢复人民对政治以及他们自身潜力的信心，我们的政策必须保证负责任的政府管理以及为负责的公民工作并与其合作的机制。


As the largest political organization in the world, the Socialist International can unite the world’s citizens around a new global agenda to achieve these goals.	社会党国际作为世界上最大的政治组织可以把全球公民联合到一个崭新的全球性纲领上来实现这些目标。


Our first challenge is to democratize globalization.	我们的首要挑战是将全球化进程民主化。


We must reconfigure globalization from the bottom-up, bringing in the two-thirds of the human race that is currently excluded from the process, on terms that reflect the socialist principles of inclusion, cultural diversity, and sustainable development.	我们必须从上至下地将重新构建全球化，把目前被排斥在这一进程以外的人类三分之二的人口带到反映包容、文化多元化以及可持续性发展的社会主义原则条件情况上来。


How can citizens have a democratic say in world economic development when the IMF and World Bank work on the principle of “one dollar, one vote”?	如果国际货币基金组织以及世界银行采取“一块美元，一张选票”的原则。


There can be no real democracy when we have a massive concentration of capital and power in the hands of the few; when multinational corporations challenge the power of democratically elected representatives; when organized criminals can buy off police officers, judges, and politicians; when monopolization of the media erodes fundamental freedoms.	那么，公民们又如何能够在世界经济发展中具有民主发言权呢？ 当我们把资本和权力集中到少数人的手中，当跨国公司挑战经过民主选举产生的代表的权力时，当有组织的犯罪团伙可以收买警官、法官以及政客们时，当媒体的垄断化侵蚀基本自由时，就不会有真正的民主。


Democratizing globalization will take time.	将全球化民主化需要时间。


But we can accelerate the process by strengthening regional cooperation and integration.	但是，我们可以通过加强地区合作和联合来加速这一进程。


This calls for new channels of cooperation with progressive forces in other parts of the world – in China, the United States, India, and the Arab world.	这就要求开辟与世界其他地方的进步势力，例如中国、美国、印度以及阿拉伯世界进行合作的新的渠道。


To tackle global problems, we need to strengthen and democratize international institutions like the United Nations.	为了应对全球性的问题，我们需要加强联合国等国际机构并将它们民主化。


But we need to look beyond reform of the Security Council and start creating a democratic global architecture that puts globalization at the service of citizens, not markets.	但是，我们需要放眼于安理会改革之外并开始建立一个将全球化服务于公民而非市场的民主的全球性结构。


Today, the top priority for socialists is to re-establish a balance between economic productivity and social justice.	当今，社会党人的首要任务是重新建立经济生产率和社会正义之间的平衡。


While we have some successful precedents, such as the Nordic model, it is difficult for nations to achieve this balance.	尽管我们具有某些类似北欧那样成功先例，各国却难以实现这一平衡。


As capitalist markets give way to vast commercial networks, and as market economies become market societies, governments and unions are increasingly restricted in scope.	当资本主义市场让位于庞大的商业网络，而市场经济成为市场社会之时，政府以及工会日益受到局限。


This has disempowered and divided our citizens.	这就剥夺了我们公民的权利并进行了分化。


Citizens of developed countries increasingly feel like mere objects of consumerism, while citizens of developing countries struggle for daily survival.	发达国家的公民们日益感觉是消费主义的对象，而发展中国家的公民们则为生计而操劳奔波。


In both cases, but in different ways, people feel impoverished.	在这两种情况中，人们都感到贫困，但是方式不同。


To be sure, we have very diverse societies, but we also face new forms of inequality.	的确，我们有非常多元化的社会，但是我们也面临新的形式的不平等。


Lack of labor standards in one part of the world undermines the social welfare of workers in other parts of the world.	世界某一地方缺乏劳工标准损害世界其他地方工人的社会福利。


Mass migration from poor countries has created fear and xenophobia in richer countries, especially among the working class.	来自贫穷国家的大规模移民在富有国家、特别是劳工阶层中造成了恐惧和排外。


Similarly, free trade has turned farmers and service workers in the developing and developed world against each other.	同样地，自由贸易将发展中国家和发达国家的农民和服务业工人相互对立。


Environmental concerns have become a “blame game.”	环境担忧已经成为“相互指责的游戏”。


The developed world fears the depletion of vital resources by the developing world, which in turn blames the developed world for destroying the environment in pursuit of profit.	发达世界担心发展中世界耗尽关键性资源，而发展中国家则反过来指责发达世界为了追求利润而摧毁环境。


To bridge these divides, we must rethink the nature of employment in an increasingly automated, borderless, and mobile global economy.	为了弥合这些分歧，我们必须重新考虑在日益自动化、无边界以及流动性的全球经济中雇佣的性质。


As capital is globalized, so basic labor standards should be global.	资本变得全球化，因此基本的劳工标准也应当全球性的。


Forced labor, child labor, and discrimination in the workplace must be eliminated.	必须清除强制劳工、童工以及工作场所中的歧视。


We must also make our own politics more democratic.	我们必须让我们的政治更为民主。


We must fight exclusion from our political parties, just as we fight exclusion in our societies.	我们必须从我们的政治党派中与排斥作斗争，正如我们在我们的社会中与排斥作斗争一样。


This means welcoming migrants and minorities, creating more opportunities for women and the disabled, and empowering citizens through education and participation.	这就意味着欢迎移民和少数族裔，为妇女和残疾人创造更多的机会，并且通过教育和参与赋予公民权利。


Empowering citizens means giving them both the power to decide and the knowledge to decide well.	赋予公民权利意味着给他们做决定的权力以及作出良好决定的知识。


In PASOK, the Greek Socialist party that I lead, we are undertaking far-reaching reforms in this direction.	在我所领导的希腊社会当中，我们正在朝这个方向采取大范围的改革。


Likewise, the goal of the Socialist International is a world governed not by free markets, but by free people.	与此类似，社会党国际是一个由自由人士、而非自由市场管理的世界。


The Urban Village	城市村落


CAMBRIDGE – “I want to be a part of it – New York, New York,” Frank Sinatra sang of the city that has attracted so many of the world’s most ambitious people, from artists and performers to businesspeople and bankers.	美国剑桥—“我想成为它的一部分——纽约，纽约，” 弗兰克·辛纳屈（Frank Sinatra）这样歌颂这个吸引着无数全球最有雄心的人们的城市。 他们中有艺术家和演员，也有商人和银行家。


In a sense, this is not a difficult phenomenon to explain; metropolises like New York City, with their multicultural populations, multinational corporations, and multitude of talented individuals, are rife with opportunities.	从某种程度上讲，这并不是难以解释的现象； 像纽约市这样的大都市有着文化多样化的人口、跨国公司和各种天才个体，遍地都是机会。


But the impact of large cities runs deeper than economic or even cultural power; cities can fundamentally change people’s lives – and even the people themselves.	但大城市的影响比经济甚至文化力量深刻得多； 城市可以从根本上改变人们的生活——甚至人们自己。


In 2010, Geoffrey West, together with a team of researchers, discovered that several socioeconomic measures – both positive and negative – increase with the size of the local population.	2010年，乔弗里·韦斯特（Geoffrey West）与一群研究者一起发现，不少社会经济指标——既有积极指标，也有消极指标——随地方人口的增加而增加。


In other words, the larger the city, the higher the average wage, productivity level, number of patents per person, crime rate, prevalence of anxiety, and incidence of HIV.	换句话说，城市越大，平均工资、生产率水平、人均专利数量、犯罪率、焦虑普遍性和艾滋病发病率都会越高。


In fact, when a city doubles in size, every measure of economic activity increases by about 15% per capita.	事实上，如若城市规模翻倍，所有人均经济活动指标都会增加大约15%。


That is why people move to the big city; indeed, it is why cities thrive.	这就是为何人们要来到大城市的原因； 事实上，这也是城市兴旺的原因。


This law remains constant across city sizes.	这一定律不随城市规模的变化而变化。


And it is not unique.	它也不是独有的。


A growing body of evidence suggests that similar functions govern even more aspects of urban life than the research by West’s team indicated.	越来越多的证据表明，类似的函数关系在许多韦斯特团队的研究所未覆盖的城市生活方面也存在。


How can cities as ostensibly different as New York, with its towering profile, and Paris, characterized by wide boulevards, function so similarly?	外表上与高楼大厦丛生的纽约和以宽阔的林荫道著称的巴黎大相径庭的城市何以在功能上如此接近？


If, as Shakespeare suggested, a city is nothing but its people, the answer may lie in the characteristic patterns of connection, interaction, and exchange among residents.	如果如莎士比亚所言，城市无他，唯人民耳，那么答案也许就在居民之间联系、互动和交流的特征模式上。


HIV – indeed, any sexually transmitted disease – provides a particularly vivid example of the way that social networks shape urban life, as it spreads through linkages of sexual partners.	艾滋病——事实上，是所有性传播疾病——就是一个社交网络如何影响城市生活的生动例子。 艾滋病通过性伙伴之间的联系传播。


Ideas – and the innovations that result from them – spread in a similar manner.	思想——及其所激发的创新——也以类似的方式传播。


Just a few years ago, a broad investigation of these complex social networks would have been virtually impossible.	仅仅几年前，对这些复杂社交网络的广泛调查还是不可能的任务。


After all, the available tools – isolated laboratory experiments and written questionnaires – were both imprecise and difficult to apply on a large scale.	毕竟，可以动用的工具——孤立的实验室试验和书面问卷——既不精确，也无法适用于大范围。


The Internet has changed that.	互联网改变了这一切。


By enmeshing billions of people in seamless connectivity, online platforms have transformed the scope of social networks and provided new tools for researchers to investigate human interaction.	在线平台实现了数十亿人的无缝连接，改变了社交网络的范围，为研究者提供了新的调查人类互动的工具。


In fact, an entirely new field of study is emerging at the intersection of data analytics and sociology: computational social science.	事实上，一个数据分析和社会学的全新的交叉研究领域正在兴起，它就是计算社会科学。


Using data collected online or through telecommunications networks – the wireless providers Orange and Ericsson, for example, have recently made some data available to researchers – it is now possible to address, in a scientific way, fundamental questions about human sociability.	如今，使用在线或通过通信网络收集的数据——比如，无线提供商Orange和Ericsson最近向研究者开放了一些数据——让用科学方法解决人类社会性基本问题成为可能。


A recent paper (of which one of us, Carlo Ratti, is a co-author) uses anonymized data from telecommunications networks across Europe to explore how human networks change with city size.	最新论文（我们中的一员，卡洛·拉蒂是该文合作者之一）使用来自全欧洲通信网络的匿名数据探索了人类网络如何随城市规模改变。


The results are striking: in large cities, people not only walk faster (a tendency recorded since the 1960s), but they also make – and change – friends faster.	结果引人注目：在大城市，人们不仅走路更快（这一倾向在20世纪60年代就已发现），交朋友和换朋友的速度也更快。


This phenomenon is likely rooted in the fact that, in accordance with West’s findings, the total number of human connections increases with city size.	这一现象的根源也许是这样一个事实：根据韦斯特的发现，人际关系总数随城市规模的增加而增加。


London’s eight million inhabitants regularly connect with almost twice the number of people as Cambridge’s 100,000 residents.	伦敦八百万居民的定期联系对象数量比剑桥居民的10万居民多出近一倍。


This increasing exposure to people – and hence to ideas, activities, and even diseases – could explain the impact of city size on socioeconomic outcomes.	这一人际曝光率的增加——因此带来了思想、活动甚至疾病爆发率的增加——可以解释城市规模对社会经济结果的影响。


But another tendency is also consistent across cities of all sizes: people tend to build “villages” around themselves.	但另一个趋势也是所有规模城市所共有的：人们倾向于构建自身周边的“村落”（village）。


This behavior is quantified as the networks’ “clustering coefficient” – that is, the probability that a person’s friends will also be friends with one another – and remains extraordinarily stable across metropolitan areas.	这种行为可以量化为网络的“集聚系数”（clustering coefficient）——即某人的朋友们彼此也是朋友的概率——并且不同都市区之间保持不同寻常的稳定性。


Simply put, humans everywhere are naturally inclined to live within tight-knit communities.	简言之，不论何地的人都有一种生活在亲密社区的天生倾向。


Of course, this idea has been suggested before.	当然，这一观点此前就已出现。


The urbanist Jane Jacobs, for example, described the rich interactions occurring in New York City neighborhoods – what she called an “intricate ballet, in which the individual dancers and ensembles all have distinctive parts which miraculously reinforce each other.”	比如，城市专家简·雅各布斯（Jane Jacobs）就描述过纽约市社区中的丰富互动——她称之为“复杂芭蕾，个体舞者和整个舞蹈团都有与众不同的部分，这些部分神奇地形成了互相强化的作用。


What computational social science offers is the prospect of quantifying such observations and gaining insights that could shape the design of urban environments in the future.	”计算社会科学可以提供量化这些观察、获得可能影响未来城市环境设计的洞见的分析角度。


The question is whether these insights could also unlock the power of human interactions in small towns, enabling them to access some of the social and economic advantages of a large city.	问题在于这些洞见是否能够释放小城镇人类互动的力量，让他们获得大城市的某些社会和经济优势。


In this sense, it is critical to recognize the fundamental difference between “urban villages” and their rural counterparts.	在这方面，关键在于认识到“城市村落”和农村村落之间的根本区别。


In the latter, social networks are largely predetermined by family, proximity, or history.	在农村村落，社交网络基本由家庭、近邻或历史预先决定。


City dwellers, by contrast, can explore a wide variety of options to create custom-made villages according to their social, intellectual, or creative affinities.	相反，城市居民拥有十分广泛的选择，根据社会、知识和创新亲密关系建立个性化村落。


Perhaps that is why Sinatra left his hometown of Hoboken, New Jersey.	或许正因如此，辛纳屈离开了他的家乡新泽西州霍伯肯（Hoboken）。


Only in a city like New York could he find the Rat Pack.	只有在像纽约这样的城市，他才可以找到鼠帮乐队（Rat Pack）。


Doing Well by Doing Good	通过做好的项目把项目做好


BERKELEY – If you get most of your ideas about government from speeches by America’s Republican presidential candidates, it’s easy to believe that the US federal government is incapable of doing anything right.	伯克利—如果你对政府的观念主要来自美国共和党总头候选人的演讲，那么你很容易就会相信，美国联邦政府做什么都是错的。


But not even the Republicans actually believe it.	但即便是共和党人，其实也不相信这一点。


The proof is just beneath the surface, where a remarkable bipartisan consensus is emerging around an approach to America’s most serious social problems – including homelessness, criminal recidivism, preschool education, and chronic illness – that combines the best principles of conservatism and progressivism.	稍稍挖掘一下就可以找到证据，围绕美国最严重的社会问题的处理方法一项令人瞩目的两党共识正在形成。 这些问题包括无家可归、累犯、学前教育和慢性病等。


It is a strategy that is playing out in Republican states such as Utah and Kentucky and Democratic ones like Massachusetts and California.	其处理方法结合了保守主义和进步主义的最佳原则。 这一战略正在共和党州（如犹他州和肯塔基州）和民主党州（如马萨诸塞州和加利福尼亚州）实施。


This nationwide trend is being catalyzed in part by the federal government.	这一全国性趋势部分是联邦政府促成的。


But it is being implemented mainly at the community level through partnerships among local governments, community groups, philanthropic organizations, and for-profit investors.	但其实施主要是在社区层面，通过地方政府、社区组织、慈善组织和逐利投资者的合作进行。


These are, in a sense, pay-for-success projects, sometimes structured as social impact bonds –formal contracts that tie payments to actual results.	从某种程度上讲，这些项目属于“成功后买单”（pay-for-success）项目，有时以社会影响债券——将支付与实际结果挂钩的正式契约——的形式出现。


Private investors and philanthropic organizations finance the upfront costs of the pilot projects, and local or state governments (sometimes supplemented with federal money) pay the investors only if the project produces the promised results.	私人投资者和慈善组织为前端成本和实验项目提供融资，地方或州政府（有时也有联邦资金补充）只有在项目产生了承诺结果的情况下才会支付。


Though the pay-for-success model is still in its infancy, dozens of projects are now underway.	尽管成功后买单模式仍处于初级阶段，但已有数十个项目正在实施。


Indeed, the United States is already the largest pay-for-success market in the world, with over $100 million invested in such transactions.	事实上，美国已经是全世界最大的成功后买单市场，交易规模超过1亿美元。


Utah was an early pioneer, launching a novel pilot project in preschool education that is funded by $7 million from Goldman Sachs and the Pritzker Foundation.	犹他州是早期先行者，启动了一项新颖的学前教育实验项目，高盛和普利兹克基金会出资700万美元。


The city of Chicago has launched a similar but larger project for $17 million, with upfront funding from some of the same investors as in Utah.	芝加哥市  实施了一项类似但规模更大（1,700万美元）的项目，前端融资的投资者不少与犹他州项目相同。


Massachusetts has a $27 million project to test a program for reducing recidivism among young men on probation.	马萨诸塞州实施了一项2,700万美元的项目，测试一个降低缓刑期内年轻男性累犯率的计划。


Pay-for-success projects mark a radical departure from traditional approaches to funding solutions to complex social challenges.	成功后买单项目截然不同于传统的复杂社会挑战解决方案融资方法。


The most obvious difference is that taxpayers avoid the upfront financial cost of trying an unproven strategy.	最明显的区别是纳税人避免了尝试未获证实的策略的前端财务成本。


Santa Clara County, California is introducing a pilot project aimed at reducing the cost of supporting people with acute mental illness.	加利福尼亚州的圣克拉拉县（Santa Clara County）正在引入一项实验项目，旨在降低支持急性精神疾病患者的成本。


At least 250 people will receive temporary housing along with “wrap-around” support and psychiatric services.	至少250人将获得临时性住宿以及“环绕式”（wrap-around）支持和精神治疗服务。


The goal is to lower public costs by reducing reliance on expensive acute-care hospitals, minimizing the number of emergency-room visits, and avoiding jail sentences.	项目目标是减小对昂贵的特护医院的依赖、尽量降低急诊室访问量、避免监禁，以此降低公共成本。


The program’s effectiveness will be evaluated by a randomized control trial comparing the data of patients who participated with those who did not.	该计划的效果将通过比较是否参与计划的患者的随机控制实验进行评估。


The key to success is that the incentives are based on outcomes, not the outflow of money.	成功的关键是激励基于结果而不是资金的流出。


A traditional social program is usually judged by the volume of services provided, such as the number of people trained or homeless people sheltered.	传统社会项目的判断标准常常是服务提供量，如有多少人接受培训或多少无家可归者得到收容。


By contrast, in a pay-for-success model, the returns are based on the social benefits achieved or savings reaped by government.	相反，在成功后买单模式中，回报基于实现的社会收益或政府所节约的成本。


How many additional children were brought up to their proper reading level?	有多少新增孩子获达到了适当的阅读水平？


How many additional former inmates obtained jobs?	有多少新增前囚犯找到了工作？


How much money did government save as a result of reduced prison time or lower safety-net payments?	政府因为入狱时间减少或安全网支出降低而节约了多少钱？


That is a big change from traditional privatization of public services, in which government contractors reap profits simply by billing for services.	这是传统的公共服务私有化的重大变化。 在传统做法中，政府承包商只要对服务收费就能赚取利润。


It also provides relief from the bean-counting rigidity that comes from policing every dollar that a contractor spends.	现在的做法还能让政府不会因为需要监督承包商花掉的每一分钱而不懂变通。


President Barack Obama’s administration has been extremely active in this area, and it is now doubling down.	奥巴马政府在这一领域非常活跃，并且正在加码。


The White House Office of Social Innovation and Civic Participation (SICP) has been working with agencies across the federal government to spur pay-for-success efforts around the country.	白宫社会创新和公民参与办公室（SICP）一直在与联邦政府各部门合作刺激全国成功后买单项目。


The Social Innovation Fund has provided matching grants to dozens of communities, which are working closely with organizations such as Harvard’s Social Impact Bond Lab and Third Sector Capital, to identify and structure promising pay-for-success ventures.	社会创新基金为数十个社区提供配套资金，这些社区与哈佛大学社会影响实验室和第三产业资本（Third Sector Capital）等组织紧密合作，遴选和组织可能成功的成功后买单初创企业。


The SICP just launched a competition for a new $10.6 million round of matching grants.	SCIP刚刚启动了一项争夺1,060万美元配套资金的竞赛。


If the broad social goals sound “Democratic,” the method and strategy are in many ways “Republican.”	如果广泛的社会目标听起来很“民主党”，那么方法和策略在很多方面相当“共和党”。


They rely heavily on the private sector, require tough quantitative evaluation, and devolve most of the actual work to states and localities.	它们非常依赖私人部门，要求严格的量化评估，并将大部分实际工作交给州和地方。


Call this “progressive federalism.”	这可称之为“进步联邦主义”。


The “progressive” component is in taking on major social problems.	“进步”成分存在于重大社会问题中。


The “federalism” consists in the recognition that states and local communities are the primary sources of bold and effective new strategies.	“联邦主义”意味着认识到州和地方社区是大胆有效的新策略的主要源泉。


Lawmakers in both parties have teamed up to introduce a variety of bills that would encourage and fund pay-for-success projects.	两党立法者联手引入一系列法案鼓励成功后买单项目。


Meanwhile, the Obama administration has pushed through two important regulatory changes that could free up billions of dollars in private capital for social-impact investing, including pay-for-success schemes.	与此同时，奥巴马政府推出了两项重要的监管变化，能够释放数十亿美元私人资本用于社会影响投资，包括成功后买单项目。


In September, the Treasury Department provided new regulations to philanthropic foundations that relaxed the perceived barriers to “mission-related investments.”	9月，财政部采取新规则监管慈善基金会，新规放松了人们所感到的“任务相关投资”壁垒。


It was an important move: Foundations oversee some $600 billion, but had long worried that certain social-impact investments might jeopardize their tax-free status.	这是一项重要举措：基金会管理着6,000亿美元资金，但长期以来一直担心某些社会影响投资可能危及它们的免税地位。


In October, the Department of Labor followed up with a “clarification’’ that eased worries at pension funds about investing in ventures that produce social as well as economic returns.	10月，劳工部步其后尘，用“澄清”缓解了退休基金关于投资于产生社会和经济两方面回报的初创企业的顾虑。


Of course, though these changes open the way for philanthropic foundations and pension funds to become major investors in pay-for-success projects, success is not guaranteed.	当然，尽管这些变化为慈善基金会和退休基金开启了成为成功后买单计划的主要投资者的大门，但成功并非板上钉钉。


For example, a project to reduce recidivism among juvenile inmates at Rikers Island in New York City produced disappointing results.	比如，一项旨在降低纽约市里克斯岛（Rikers Island）少年犯累犯的项目结果令人失望。


But that is exactly how the approach is supposed to work: risk-conscious investors, rather than taxpayers, assume the upfront financial costs of innovating.	但这正是这一方法的初衷：有风险意识的投资者，而不是纳税人，承担了创新的前端财务风险。


Failed efforts are not only inevitable; they are essential to finding real solutions.	失败的措施不但是不可避免的，也是找到真正的解决方案的基础。


Americans are generally wary of “big government,” but they do want solutions to their country’s biggest social problems.	美国人总是担心“大政府”，但他们也确实希望找到解决美国最大社会问题的办法。


A results-oriented pay-for-success approach, based on what we know works well in the private sector, provides an ideal opportunity to test bold and innovative solutions, learn from scores of competing projects about which work, and ramp up those that do.	结果导向的成功后买单方法基于我们所知道的私人部门的有效方法，提供了理想的机会测试大胆创新解决方案，从竞争性项目的分数中汲取经验，并加码分数高的项目。


A Future-Oriented US Fiscal Policy	未来导向的美国财政政策


NEW YORK – At last, Republican candidates in the US presidential campaign have begun focusing on the economy.	纽约—终于，美国总统选战的共和党候选人开始关注经济了。


At a time of rising anxiety among middle-income voters about wealth inequality, and growing awareness of the unsustainability of Social Security and Medicare, this conversation could not be more important.	中等收入选民对财富不平等问题日益焦虑，社会福利与医疗保险的不可持续性日益为人所知，在这样的情况下，经济问题不可不谓无比重要。


Unfortunately, not enough attention is being paid to the link between these two key issues.	不幸的是，这两个关键问题之间的联系受到的关注仍然不够。


In fact, tackling the problems with Social Security and Medicare is the key to addressing what ails the middle class.	事实上，解决社会安全与医疗保险的问题是解决中产阶级烦恼的关键。


But fiscal-policy progressives, in particular, remain fixated on using higher tax rates on the wealthy to fund higher incomes for everyone else.	但财政政策进步论者顽固地认为必须用提高富人税率来为其他所有人提高收入。


Income redistribution may be an attractive idea for some – including, to a lesser extent, the Republicans who support a watered-down version, in which relatively high marginal tax rates support expanded family assistance – but it is fool’s gold.	收入再分配也许对于某些人很有吸引力——包括（在较小程度上）支持一个淡化版本政策的共和党人，该政策用相对较高的边际税率支持扩大家庭援助——但这只是愚人金。


As a recent Brookings Institution paper shows, higher marginal tax rates would do little to diminish income inequality in the US.	布鲁金斯研究所的一篇最新文章显示，提高边际税率对于降低美国收入不平等几乎毫无用处。


Likewise, higher taxes cannot resolve the problem posed by the mounting unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.	类似地，提高税率无法解决社会安全与医疗保险负债高企、入不敷出所造成的问题。


Maintaining these programs in their current form would require growth-destroying tax increases on middle-income Americans, as well as continuing cuts in government funding for defense, education, and research.	保持这些计划现有形式不变需要对中等收入美国人大量增税，其幅度足以摧毁经济增长，同时还必须继续削减国防、教育和研究方面的政府支出。


There is only one way to ensure broadly shared prosperity in the US: a future-oriented fiscal policy aimed at boosting employment and productivity, maintaining low marginal tax rates, strengthening support for workers, and investing in education, innovation, and infrastructure.	只有一种方法可以暴政美国的繁荣得到广泛分享：以未来为导向的财政政策。 该财政政策的目标是提振就业和生产率、保持低边际税率、强化工人支持、以及投资于教育、创新和基础设施。


The alternative – allowing the past, in the form of interest payments on the national debt and entitlement spending, to continue dictating fiscal policy – would block prosperity among middle-income households, by requiring continuous tax increases and reduced public investment.	其他方法——继续让过去（即偿付国民债务利息、维持福利支出等）决定财政政策——将要求持续提高税收和削减公共投资，从而让中等收入家庭无从实现繁荣。


To fund this future-oriented policy, US leaders must implement reforms that enhance the long-run viability of the social safety net.	为了给这一未来导向的政策筹资，美国领导人必须实施改革以强化社会安全网的长期可行性。


As it stands, Social Security and Medicare are unsustainable, with the long-term gap between projected income and promised benefits reaching tens of trillions of dollars – well in excess of the official debt the federal government has accumulated over its history.	目前得社会安全与医疗保险是不可持续的，预期收入和承诺福利之间的长期缺口高达数十万亿美元——比联邦政府在美国全部历史上所累积的官方债务还要高得多。


Closing the gap with tax hikes – the burden of which would be borne largely by middle-income households – would threaten both economic growth and living standards.	用增税来弥补这一缺口将危及经济增长和生活水平。 中等收入家庭将承担税收负担的绝大部分。


And offsetting spending cuts provides no safety valve.	而抵消性的减支也无法提供安全阀。


Health care and Social Security already consume half of the US federal budget, up from one-sixth in 1965, and these outlays relative to GDP are projected to more than double by 2040.	目前医疗保险和社会安全消耗了美国联邦预算的一半，而1965年时只占六分之一，其占GDP之比预计将在2040年前再翻一番多。


With no change in course, the programs’ “trust fund” balances will be depleted by the 2030s.	如果不做出改变，这些计划的“信托基金”余额将在21世纪30年代告罄。


Avoiding that outcome will require US political leaders to constrain the growth of entitlement spending and bolster support for middle-income individuals.	要避免这一结果，美国政治领导人必须克制福利支出的增加，加大对中等收入个体的支持。


While Social Security and Medicare remain important to ensure wellbeing in retirement, their role must be updated to suit today’s needs.	社会安全与医疗保险对于退休者的福利仍然至关重要，但它们的角色必须更新，以适应今天的需要。


For example, to ensure that no one who has worked for 30 or more years will live in poverty in old age, Social Security needs a higher minimum benefit for lower-income workers, with more affluent seniors seeing less growth in benefits over time.	比如，为了确保所有工作30年或以上的人都不会在晚年致贫，社会安全需要提高低收入工人的最低福利，而较丰裕的年长者，其长期福利的增加幅度将会更少。


Adopting the chained consumer-price index for federal benefit calculations would ensure that benefits more accurately represent inflation, while slowing the rate of benefit growth for individuals.	用消费物价指数来计算联邦福利能确保福利更加准确地体现通胀，同时降低个人福利增长率。


Beyond stabilizing Social Security’s finances, US leaders should implement policies that place a higher value on work.	除了稳定社会安全融资，美国领导人还应该实施更加强调工作价值的政策。


Seniors working past the retirement age of 67 should not be subject to the payroll tax, and the retirement earnings test should be eliminated, so that seniors can work full-time without losing out on Social Security benefits.	在达到退休年龄67岁后仍在工作的年长者应该免除工资税，退休收入考察应该取消，从而让年长者不会因为全职工作而失去社会安全福利。


Finally, incentives for private retirement saving should be expanded.	最后，应该扩大私人退休储蓄激励。


A similarly honest and modern approach can also secure Medicare, without large tax increases on middle-income Americans.	类似的诚实而现代的方针也可以确保医疗保险，而不需要大幅增加中等收入美国人的税负。


For starters, bipartisan proposals for premium support, with seniors receiving subsidies to purchase private health insurance, should be implemented.	首先，应该实施跨党派保费支持方案，给予年长者补贴用于购买私人医疗保险。


To enable individuals to prepare to cover the associated deductibles and copayments, health savings accounts – funds which are not subject to income tax at the time of deposit, and can be used tax-free at any time to cover qualified medical expenses – should be expanded and strengthened.	要让个人做好准备覆盖相关扣减项和共担项，医疗储蓄账户——在存入时不必缴纳所得税，并且随时可以以免税方式用于符合条件的医疗支出——应该扩大和加强。


Premium support can significantly reduce Medicare spending, as it establishes a framework for more efficient spending on benefits, driven by competition and innovation in care and coverage.	保费支持可以显著降低医疗保险支出，因为它建立了更加高效的福利支出框架，并受竞争和看护和覆盖创新的驱动。


So far, the only US presidential candidate who has recognized the need for such a future-oriented approach is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who has proposed modernizing reforms of Social Security and Medicare that avoid imposing high costs on middle-income Americans and a heavier debt burden on future generations.	目前，在美国总统候选人中，认识到需要采取这一未来导向方针的只有前佛罗里达州州长杰布·布什，他提出要对社会安全与医疗保险进行现代化改革，以避免给中等收入美国人带来巨大的成本、让子孙后代背上沉重的债务负担。


Two other Republican candidates, Ohio Governor John Kasich and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, have also raised constructive reform ideas.	其他两名共和党候选人，俄亥俄州州长约翰·卡西奇（John Kasich）和佛罗里达州参议员马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）也提出了建设性改革概念。


By contrast, former Secretary of State and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and a leading Republican contender, Donald Trump, have opposed reform of Social Security and Medicare.	相反，前国务卿、民主党候选人希拉里·克林顿和共和党阵营中的领先者唐纳德·特朗普都反对社会安全与医疗保险改革。


Senator Bernie Sanders, Clinton’s Democratic rival, actually proposes to expand the programs’ unfunded liabilities.	克林顿的民主党竞选对手、参议员伯尔尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）实际上提出的是扩大该计划的无资金准备的负债。


With so few presidential candidates recognizing the link between reforming Social Security and Medicare and ensuring broadly shared prosperity, the US faces serious risks.	认识到改革社会安全与医疗保险和确保繁荣得到广泛分享之间的联系的总统候选人如此之少，美国正面临严重风险。


The progressive redistributive agenda could continue to advance, or the conservative entitlement-reform agenda could fail.	渐进再分配日程可能继续得势，保守福利改革日程可能失败。


Either way, the US would face growth-limiting tax increases and limits on the contributions that public investment can make to the country’s future.	无论如何，美国将面临遏制增长的增税和公共投资无力支撑美国未来的局面。


There is a fiscal path to enhancing prosperity for middle-income Americans.	有一种财政方法能够为中等收入美国人带来更大的繁荣。


It requires support for growth, rewards for work, investment in opportunity, and, unavoidably, reforms to Social Security and Medicare.	它要求支持增长、奖励工作、投资机会，以及（不可避免地）改革社会安全与医疗保险。


One hopes that, as the campaign progresses, honest and forward-looking fiscal-policy debates recognizing this fundamental truth gain traction.	我们希望，随着选战的展开，承认这一基本事实的诚实的前瞻性财政政策争论会日益成为重点。


What we are witnessing today is something a bit less sinister – call it an “authoritarian temptation.”	今天摆在我们面前的局面或许没有那么凶险——可以称之为“专制主义��惑”。


The Erosion of Law	法律的式微


MADRID – In assessments of global events and trends in 2014, words like chaos, disorder, and fragmentation are likely to feature prominently.	马德里—在评估2014年全球事件和趋势时，混乱、失序、分裂等词汇或许会主宰我们的脑海。


But the word “soft” should also appear.	但“软”字也应该出现。


Indeed, 2014 was characterized by the continued rise of “soft” instruments to address global challenges: pledges, decrees, self-regulation, joint plans of action, and handshake deals.	事实上，2014年的一大特征是持续涌现出“软”工具解决全球挑战：承诺、判令、自我监管、联合行动以及握手达成协议。


Are the days of organizing international relations according to traditional, formal law over?	根据传统的正是法律组织全球关系的时代结束了吗？


To be sure, this shift toward “soft” law is also occurring in domestic contexts.	当然，这一朝向“软”法律的转变也发生在你国内环境中。


In the United States, President Barack Obama used his executive power to sidestep Congress on immigration reform.	在美国，总统奥巴马利用行政权力绕过国会实施移民改革。


At the supranational level, the new European Commission is pursuing its goal of “better regulation” using as little formal lawmaking as possible, focusing instead on recommendations, codes of conduct, and guidelines.	在超国家层面，新欧盟委员会正在追求其“更加监管”的目标的过程中尽可能少地使用正式立法程序，将注意力集中于建议、行为准则和指引上。


But the erosion of traditional law remains most pronounced in the international arena.	但国际法的式微最显而易见的仍然是国际领域。


The G-20’s decisions have become increasingly informal, while rule-making authority has been outsourced to private regulatory bodies, such as the Basel Committee and the International Accounting Standards Board.	G-20的决定越来越不正式，而规则制定权被外包给了私人监管机构，如巴塞尔委员会（Basel Committee）和国际会计准则委员会（International Accounting Standards Board）


Moreover, a growing number of arrangements are being introduced with little or no built-in enforcement.	此外，越来越多的安排不再或极少含有内置执行条款。


November’s much-celebrated climate agreement between Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the interim “joint plan of action” between Iran and its international interlocutors on the country’s nuclear program (essentially two unilateral statements linked by a press release), are but two recent examples.	奥巴马和中国国家主席习近平在11月所达成的广受欢迎的气候协议以及伊朗与其核计划问题的国际谈判者之间的过渡性“联合行动计划”（实际上是由一次新闻发布会联系起来的两个单边声明）就是其中两个例子。


Such agreements may be positive developments, but they are no substitute for official, enforceable international rules of conduct.	这些协议也许是积极的发展成果，但它们不能替代可强制实施的官方国籍行为准则。


And states, despite their reticence to be formally bound by preset terms, recognize this.	而各国也承认这一点，尽管它们也不愿接受预先确定的条款的正式约束。


From trade regulations and nuclear non-proliferation to climate action and maritime boundaries, there is a yearning for the clarity and certainty that only “hard” law can provide.	从贸易谈判和核不扩散到期后行动和海洋边界，我们都迫切需要只有“硬”法律才能提供的明确性和确定性。


So what is preventing the international community from making firm rules?	那么，是什么阻止了国际社会形成确定的规则？


The protracted travails of the Doha Round of World Trade talks offer some clues.	迟迟无法完成的多哈世贸谈判回合可以提供一些线索。


One key problem is the rapid rise in the number of actors.	一个关键的问题是行动方数量的快速增加。


It is simply more difficult for 193 states to reach agreement than it was for the original 51 signatories of the post-World War II conventions that established the contemporary international order.	在193个国家之间达成协议当然要比在这个建立了当代国际秩序的公约的51个最初签署国之间达成协议难得多。


This challenge is rooted in two developments: the post-colonial and post-Soviet proliferation of states, and the disaggregation and erosion of state sovereignty.	这一挑战的根源在于两大发展趋势：后殖民时代和后苏联时代国家数量的增长，以及国家主权的崩溃和侵蚀。


Crafting agreements is no longer the job of only foreign ministers or heads of state; it now must involve civil society, experts, international organizations, and the private sector – each of which has its own agenda.	建立协议不再只是外交部长或国家元首的事情； 如今这也是公民社会、专家、国际组织和私人行动方的事情——所有这些行动方都有其自身日程。


This may enrich negotiations; but it also complicates and prolongs the process considerably.	这也许能让谈判更丰富； 但也大大复杂和延长了谈判过程。


In this context, ensuring that formal rule-making remains a viable option internationally will require some adjustments.	在这样的背景下，确保正式规则制定仍是可行的国际选项就需要我们做出一些调整。


One potential solution would be for regional representatives to be empowered to negotiate on behalf of groups of states.	一个潜在解决办法是授权地区代表代表国家组织的利益进行谈判。


Another would be to work from treaties involving fewer actors to build broader agreements.	另一个解决办法是从包含较少行动方的条约出发构建更加广大的协议。


In international trade, for example, mega-regional deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership could serve as de facto standard setters, helping to facilitate a global agreement.	比如，在国际贸易中，巨型地区协议——如 跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership）和跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系（Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership）——可以充当更好的事实标准制定者，以促进全球协议的形成。


Likewise, a binding and enforceable deal on Iran’s nuclear program could encourage progress at this spring’s Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference toward instituting firm commitments to implement the action items agreed upon at the 2010 round – in particular, establishing a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East.	类似地，就伊朗核计划达成有约束力、可强制实行的协议能够鼓励今年春天的核不扩散条约审议大会（Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference）形成切实承诺实施2010年左右所达成的行动计划内容——特别是在中东建立一个无核武器区。


Unless non-proliferation deals are infused with traditional legality, they will remain inadequate to achieve their goal of making the world a safer place.	除非不扩散协议具备传统的法律性，否则这些协议就不足以实现让世界更安全这一目标。


This year will offer one more critical opportunity to reestablish hard legality in international negotiations: the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in December.	今年还将提供另一个在国际谈判中重建硬法律性的关键���会：12月的巴黎联合国气候变化会议。


It is widely believed that the conference may well represent the world’s last chance to limit the global temperature increase to 2º Celsius over pre-industrial levels – the threshold beyond which the risks of climate change become particularly daunting.	人们广泛认为，这次会议将是世界最后的机会把全球气温升高幅度限制在前工业化水平以上2℃之内——超过这一阈值，气候变化风险就会显著提高。


To succeed, the Paris conference can look nothing like the disastrous meeting held in Copenhagen six years ago.	要想获得成功，巴黎会议决不能重蹈六年前哥本哈根会议的覆辙。


And the negotiating parties must move beyond the soft “intended nationally determined contributions,” agreed to last month in Lima, to establish legally binding commitments.	谈判各方必须超越上个月在利马达成的“各国各自决定打算做出多少贡献”软约束，建立有法律约束力的承诺。


Such a result would be a boon not just for efforts to limit climate change, but also for addressing other global challenges.	若能实现这样的结果，将不仅是限制气候变化努力的福音，也将极大地有利于解决其他全球挑战。


A firm, enforceable climate-change deal would show that, as difficult as it is to reach a hard-law agreement nowadays, it is possible.	确定的、可强制实行的气候变化协议将证明，如今达成硬法律协议尽管困难，但仍是可能的。


Indeed, world leaders should not settle for less.	事实上，这应该是世界领导人的最低追求。


More flexible approaches to international negotiations may have facilitated “landmark” deals in 2014.	2014年，较灵活的国际谈判方针或许促进了一些“里程碑式”协议。


But without strong compliance mechanisms, such agreements could amount to little.	但如果没有强大的遵约机制，这类协议就没有多少意义。


Finding ways to adapt formal legal processes to today’s complex global environment is a key challenge for 2015.	找到办法让正式法律程序适应当今复杂的全球环境是2015年的关键挑战。


World leaders need a success story to get them motivated.	世界领导人需要成功范例的刺激。


Soft Power and the Struggle Against Terrorism	软权力与反恐斗争


Last year, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, George Carey, the former Archbishop of Canterbury, asked Secretary of State Colin Powell why the United States seemed to focus only on its hard power rather than its soft power.	去年在瑞士达沃斯举行的"世界经济论坛"上，前坎特伯雷大主教乔治·凯利问美国国务卿柯林·鲍威尔为何美国似乎只注重硬权力而忽视软权力。


Secretary Powell replied that the US had used hard power to win World War II, but he continued: "What followed immediately after hard power?	鲍威尔国务卿回答说美国曾经运用硬权力赢得了第二次世界大战，但他继续道："在硬权力之后是什么呢？


Did the US ask for dominion over a single nation in Europe?	美国有要求控制任何一个欧洲国家吗？


No.	没有。


Soft power came in the Marshall Plan¼.We did the same thing in Japan."	软权力是通过'马歇尔计划'实现的……我们对日本也采取了同样的举措。 "


After the war in Iraq ended, I spoke about soft power (a concept I developed) to a conference co-sponsored by the US Army in Washington.	在伊拉克战争结束之后，我在美国军方主办的一次会议上谈到了软权力（我提出的一个概念）。


One speaker was Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.	会上的一位发言者是国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德。


According to a press account, "the top military brass listened sympathetically," but when someone asked Rumsfeld for his opinion on soft power, he replied, "I don't know what it means."	据新闻报道称，这位军方最高首脑在聆听（我的发言）时颇有心得，但当有人问他对于软权力的看法时，他却表示"我不清楚它的意思"。


One of Rumsfeld's "rules" is that "weakness is provocative."	拉姆斯菲尔德的一个原则是弱点招致攻击。


He is correct, up to a point.	从某种意义上讲，他是正确的。


As Osama bin Laden observed, people like a strong horse.	如奥萨马·本·拉登所言，人们总是喜欢强壮的马。


But power, defined as the ability to influence others, comes in many guises, and soft power is not weakness.	但权力作为影响他人的一种能力，有着不同的形式，而软权力也并非弱点。


On the contrary, it is the failure to use soft power effectively that weakens America in the struggle against terrorism.	相反，正是由于未能有效地运用软权力，是美国在反恐怖斗争中的力量被削弱了。


Soft power is the ability to get what one wants by attracting others rather than threatening or paying them.	软权力是一种通过吸引他人而不是通过威胁和收买达到目的的能力。


It is based on culture, political ideals, and policies.	它是一种基于文化、政治理想和政策的能力。


When you persuade others to want what you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction.	当你要说服他人接受你的抱负时，你并不需要采用大棒加胡萝卜的方式使人与你同路。


Hard power, which relies on coercion, grows out of military and economic might.	而基于威慑力的硬权力则是由军事和经济实力衍生而来。


It remains crucial in a world populated by threatening states and terrorist organizations.	在这个充满具有威胁性的国家和恐怖组织的世界，它仍然至关重要。


But soft power will become increasingly important in preventing terrorists from recruiting new supporters, and for obtaining the international cooperation necessary for countering terrorism.	但软权力在防止恐怖分子招募新人和争取反恐怖所需的国际合作方面会变得日益重要。


The US is more powerful than any country since the Roman Empire, but like Rome, America is neither invincible nor invulnerable.	自罗马帝国以来，美国比任何一个国家都强大。 但正如罗马帝国一样，美国并不是不可征服和坚不可摧的。


Rome did not succumb to the rise of another empire, but to the onslaught of waves of barbarians.	罗马抵挡得住其它崛起的帝国，却招架不住野蛮人一波又一波的的攻击。


Modern high-tech terrorists are the new barbarians.	以现代高科技为支撑的恐怖分子就是新的野蛮人。


The US cannot alone hunt down every suspected Al Qaeda leader.	美国以其一国之力不可能搜捕所有涉嫌的"基地"领导人。


Nor can it launch a war whenever it wishes without alienating other countries.	它也不可能不顾及其它国家而随心所欲地发动战争。


The four-week war in Iraq was a dazzling display of America's hard military power that removed a vicious tyrant.	为时四周的伊拉克战争是美国以硬军事权力清除邪恶独裁的精彩展示。


But it did not remove America's vulnerability to terrorism.	但它却并没有消除美国面对恐怖主义的脆弱性。


It was also costly in terms of our soft power to attract others.	吸引他人的软权力同样有着高昂的成本。


In the aftermath of the war, polls showed a dramatic decline in the popularity of the US even in countries like Britain, Spain, and Italy, whose governments supported the war.	据民意调查显示，战争带来的后果是美国的受拥护程度即便在英国、西班牙和意大利这些政府支持对伊战争的国家也大幅下降。


America's standing plummeted in Islamic countries, whose support is needed to help track the flow of terrorists, tainted money, and dangerous weapons.	美国的形象在伊斯兰国家更是严重受损。 而这些国家的支持对美国追踪恐怖分子、恐怖资金和危险武器的流动十分重要。


The war on terrorism is not a clash of civilizations - Islam versus the West - but a civil war within Islamic civilization between extremists who use violence to enforce their vision and a moderate majority who want things like jobs, education, health care, and dignity as they pursue their faith.	反恐战争并不是伊斯兰文明与西方文明之间的冲突，而是伊斯兰文明的内战。 它是使用暴力实现狂想的恐怖分子和在追求信仰的同时还需要工作、教育、医疗和尊严的理智的大多数人之间的战争。


America will not win unless the moderates win.	除非理智的大多数取得胜利，否则美国的胜利也就无从谈起。


American soft power will never attract Osama bin Laden and the extremists.	美国的软权力永远不会吸引奥萨马·本·拉登和极端主义分子。


Only hard power can deal with them.	对付他们只能使用硬权力。


But soft power will play a crucial role in attracting moderates and denying the extremists new recruits.	但软权力会在吸引理智者和防止恐怖新兵方面发挥至关重要的作用。


During the Cold War, the West's strategy of containment combined the hard power of military deterrence with the soft power of attracting people behind the Iron Curtain.	在冷战时期，西方的遏制战略将军事威慑的硬权力和吸引"铁幕"后的人们的软权力结合起来。


Behind the wall of military containment, the West ate away Soviet self-confidence with broadcasts, student and cultural exchanges, and the success of capitalist economics.	在军事遏制的高墙背后，西方还通过广播、学生和文化交流以及资本主义经济的成功来蚕食苏维埃的自信。


As a former KGB official later testified, "Exchanges were a Trojan horse for the Soviet Union.	正如一名前克格勃官员证实的那样，（国际）交流就像是针对苏联的特洛伊木马。


They played a tremendous role in the erosion of the Soviet system."	它们在侵蚀苏维埃体系的过程中发挥了巨大的作用。


In retirement, President Dwight Eisenhower said that he should have taken money out of the defense budget to strengthen the US Information Agency.	艾森豪威尔总统在卸任后表示，他本应该从国防预算中抽出资金以强化美国新闻文化署的职能。


With the Cold War's end, Americans became more interested in budget savings than in investing in soft power.	随着冷战的结束，美国人变得对节省预算而不是投资软权力更有兴趣。


In 2003, a bipartisan advisory group reported that the US was spending only $150 million on public diplomacy in Muslim countries, an amount it called grossly inadequate.	2003年，一个两党联合顾问团报告称美国在穆斯林国家的公共外交方面仅��入了少得可怜的1. 5亿美金。


Indeed, the combined cost for the State Department's public diplomacy programs and all of America's international broadcasting is just over $1 billion, about the same amount spent by Britain or France, countries that are one-fifth America's size and whose military budgets are only 25% as large.	确实，美国国务院的公共外交项目和美国国际广播的总成本只有10亿多美金，大约与英国和法国在这方面的开支相当。 而英法两国面积只有美国的1/5，军事预算只有美国的25%。


No one would suggest that America spend as much to launch ideas as to launch bombs, but it does seem odd that the US spends 400 times as much on hard power as on soft power.	没人会建议美国应该在宣传理念方面投入和在军事方面一样多的资金。 但美国在硬权力上的投资是在软权力上的400倍，却实在令人诧异。


If the US spent just 1% of the military budget on soft power, it would quadruple its current spending on this key component of the war on terrorism.	如果美国将1%的军事预算投入软权力，那么这一反恐战争的关键部分所得到的投资也会是现在的四倍。


If America is to win that war, its leaders are going to have to do better at combining soft and hard power into "smart power."	如果美国要赢得这场战争，那么它的领导者们应该在结合软硬权力创造"明智权利"方面做得更好。


Solidarity Fatigue	团结疲劳


Democracy tarnishes its heroes as surely as revolutions devour their children.	民主肯定会玷污自己的英雄，就像革命肯定会吞噬自己的后代。


For 25 years, the leaders of Solidarity personified the qualities needed to win Poland’s struggle for democracy: unbending courage in the face of the communist Leviathan and magnanimity and clear-sighted determination during the transfer of power.	25年来，赢得波兰民主斗争的所有素质都在团结工会领导人的身上得以体现：包括在共产主义怪兽面前毫不畏惧，在权力过渡时期目标清楚、意志坚定、慷慨宽容。


All of these were great and noble qualities, and all of them now seem utterly superfluous to most Poles.	所有这些素质都伟大而且高尚，但在当代波兰人的眼中，所有的伟大高尚都彻头彻尾失去了意义。


That is the sad lesson of Poland’s parliamentary election two weeks ago, and of Sunday’s indecisive presidential election (which will be decided by a run off between Donald Tusk and Lech Kaczynski on October 23rd.)	这是两周前举行的波兰议会选举和星期日举行的非决定性总统选举（10月23日多·图斯克和莱赫·卡钦斯基的决选将最终确定选举结果）告诉我们的惨痛教训。


To be sure, the communists-cum-postcommunists who have dominated Polish politics since 1989 were utterly repudiated – the left got scarcely 11% of the vote in the parliamentary poll.	有一点可以肯定，那就是1989年以来把持波兰政局的共产主义者和后共产主义者已经被人们彻底地抛弃¾左翼党派在议会投票中只赢得了11%的选票。


But Solidarity’s old guard has also been cast aside.	可团结工会的老战士们也被抛到了一边。


Poland yearns for something new.	波兰政治渴望着注入新鲜的血液。


Poland’s recent elections were the first in which the postcommunist left was irrelevant.  The postcommunists know that they can no longer live off their legacy of organization and discipline, so they have chosen a clever and attractive 34-year-old leader.	不久前的波兰选举第一次将后共产主义者排除在外。 后共产主义者们知道组织井然、纪律严明的传统再也无法帮助他们获胜，因此他们选择了一位年仅34岁、魅力四射的聪明领袖。


He has nothing to do with the communist era and has sacked all former Party members from important positions, even barring former Prime Minister Leszek Miller from standing for parliament.	此人与共产主义时代毫无瓜葛，他把所有前共产党员都从重要位置上赶下了台，甚至禁止前总理莱舍克·米莱尔参与议会选举。


This is undoubtedly all to the good. But the overall health of Polish democracy is another matter.	这毫无疑问是在向好的方向发展，但波兰民主的整体状况则是另外一个问题。


Turnout for the parliamentary election was 40%, which puts Poland near the bottom in voter participation among the democratic nations of the world, and about 25-30% below the European average.	议会选举的投票率只有40%，这个数字使波兰排在了世界民主国家选民参选状况的末尾，比欧洲平均水平低25到30个百分点。


Political apathy reflects many factors, but two stand out.	这种政治冷漠反映出很多问题，但有两点最为重要。


A few days before the parliamentary election, people were asked if they hoped for a better life.	议会选举的前几天，公众被问及是否希望生活变得更好。


An astounding 60% said that they do not.	居然有60%的被访者说自己不抱有这样的奢望，这个数字实在令人惊骇不已。


Hopeless people do not vote.	失去希望的人当然不会参与投票。


Second, one of the necessary conditions of a functioning democracy are clear and sufficiently distinct party political programs.	其次，清晰明确的党派政治纲领是成功民主的一个必要条件，但这个条件在波兰并不具备。


That is not the case in Poland. Parties’ programs changed with the public opinion polls, and their economic proposals were either too complicated or too muddled for voters to grasp.	各党派的纲领随着民意调查的结果变化，他们提出的经济议案也不是过于复杂就是过于含混，让选民们很难理解。


So the 40% who voted did so for emotional reasons, not as a clear political choice.	因此即便那40%的投票者也是出于个人的感情因素，而不是做出了明确的政治选择。


Among the leading politicians of the parties that overwhelmingly won the parliamentary elections – the neo-liberal Civic Platform and the conservative-populist Law and Justice  – almost every face has been around since 1989.	新自由主义的公民纲领党和保守民粹主义的法律正义党都在议会选举中大获全胜，而这两个党派几乎所有的高层领袖都从1989年起就活跃在波兰的政坛。


So the members of the new government, although not physically old, are politically geriatric.	因此，尽管新政府的组成人员岁数并不大，但在政治上却早已失去了活力。


The Solidarity/postcommunist divide seems to have pickled Polish politics, leaving it without a new generation of leaders and thus without enthusiasm.	团结工会/后共产主义人士之间的分歧似乎也一直困扰着波兰政治，使波兰无法诞生新一代的领袖，也因此丧失了必要的活力与热情。


Unsurprisingly, the young are the most estranged.	年轻一代与政治的感情最为疏远，这一点倒也在意料之中。


When I asked my students at Warsaw University how many intended to vote, only two raised their hands.	我问过华沙大学的弟子有多少人想去投票，只有两个人举起了手。


Perhaps others were ashamed to say they care about politics and did, in fact, vote, but they can’t have been many.	也许有的学生羞于言明自己关心政治，但却实际参与了投票，但我认为这样的情况肯定不会太多。


An entire generation has grown up to be apolitical, even anti-political, which bodes ill for the future.	整整一代人在成长过程中对政治漠不关心，甚至持反对态度，这绝不是什么好兆头。


The most difficult problems in Poland are unemployment, which hovers around 20% – the highest rate in the EU – and the growing divide between rich and poor.	波兰目前最大的困难是失业率居高不下，一直徘徊在20%左右，超过了其它所有的欧盟国家。 另一个问题就是贫富差距日益扩大。


Indeed, only in Russia (and perhaps in Ukraine) is the income gap wider.	实际上，收入差距甚于波兰的恐怕只有俄罗斯（也许还有乌克兰）。


Yet neither of these issues was raised decisively in the campaign.	但这些问题都没有在竞选时被明确地提上日程。


The main issues that both victorious parties highlighted were the communist past and public corruption.	共产主义过去和公众腐败是两个获胜党派大肆宣扬的主要矛盾。


Both are important issues, but they are secondary to the problems of joblessness and poverty.	这两个问题无疑都很重要，但与失业和贫困相比却只能相形见绌。


Indeed, it is estimated that 30% of Polish children do not get enough to eat. This is Europe, so they do not die of hunger.	实际上，估计有30%左右的波兰儿童得不到足够的食物，只是因为这里是欧洲，他们才没有被活活饿死。


But that a third of all children in a member country of the European Union live on one meal a day is a source of shame – and thus should also be a primary political issue.	但一个欧盟成员国近三分之一的儿童一天只能吃上一顿饭无疑是一种巨大的耻辱，因此这有理由成为重要的政治问题。


This is all the more peculiar given that the victorious parties that emerged out of Solidarity are keen to promote its values, particularly “solidarity” with a small “s.”	由于起源于团结工会的获胜政党热衷于宣传自己的价值观，特别是以小写“s”打头的团结（solidarity），这个问题就显得更为独特。


But their purpose is purely instrumental, for to call somebody a “liberal” nowadays in Poland is more pejorative than calling him a “son of a bitch.”	但他们这样做完全出自实用主义的考虑，因为在今天的波兰，把某人叫做“自由主义者”比直接骂他“狗娘养的”更具有侮辱意味。


Indeed, “liberal” in both its meanings – economic and moral – is disdained.	实际上，自由主义无论在经济还是道德上都受到人们的鄙视。


Liberals are viewed as vampires, seeking only to make money for themselves and their cronies.	自由主义者被人们看作吸血鬼，只顾着让自己和亲信大捞一笔。


So it is understandable that both leading presidential candidates, Donald Tusk and Lech Kaczynski, ran as fast as they could from “liberal” ideas.	难怪多·图斯克和莱赫·卡钦斯基这两位领先的总统候选人对“自由主义”思想避之唯恐不及。


But what does small-s solidarity mean in practical terms?	但小写“s”打头的团结又有什么实际意义？


Nobody knows, and neither Tusk nor Kaczynski was saying.	这一点没有人知道，图斯克和卡钦斯基两位也都没有说。


They suggested only some vague notions of state intervention on behalf of the poor and needy.	他们所提出的不过是由国家代表贫困人口干预经济的模糊设想。


The death of postcommunism in Poland has thus been greeted not with a bang but with a whimper.	于是，后共产主义在波兰的终结不仅没有让人们欢呼雀跃，相反却让很多人低声啜泣。


There is nothing devastating in this, of course, but Poland’s political malaise may one day prove dangerous, and so should be scrutinized in other democracies, old and new.	尽管这本身不会造成太大影响，但波兰的政治痼疾却迟早会带来危险，因此无论是新老民主，都应该时刻保持警惕。


For the problems of anomie, apathy, and political charade are not Polish problems, but maladies that increasingly afflict democracies everywhere, and that urgently call for a restoring of faith in parties and politics.	因为混乱、冷漠和政治谜题都不仅仅在波兰存在，而是日益成为影响所有民主的痼疾。 重塑对政党和政治的信心成了人们迫切需要面对的问题。


Solidarity in a Pluralist Age	多元时代的团结


VIENNA – Solidarity is essential to democratic societies; otherwise, they fall apart.	发自维也纳——团结是民主社会所必须具备的元素；


They cannot function beyond a certain level of mutual distrust or a sense on the part of some members that other members have abandoned them.	如果失去了团结，整个社会就会陷入分裂，倘若社会成员之间彼此猜忌，有些成员又觉得被其他人所抛弃，那么在情况恶化到一定程度后，整个社会就会陷入瘫痪了。


Many view the development of an individualistic outlook as the greatest threat to solidarity nowadays. But this is closely linked to a diminishing sense of common identity.	在许多人看来，当今个人主义的发展是对团结的最大威胁，但这种观点其实是拘泥于一种逐渐走向没落的共同身份定义。


It is no accident, for example, that Europe’s most successful welfare states were created in ethnically homogeneous Scandinavia.	这种共同身份定义的最佳范例就是种族相对单一的斯堪的纳维亚半岛，欧洲最成功的福利国家都集中于此。


People in those countries had the sense that they could understand their neighbors and fellow citizens, and that they shared a close link with them.	那些国家的人民都认为自己可以理解邻居和其他市民的思维方式，彼此之间都享有非常紧密的联系。


The challenge nowadays is to maintain that sense of intense solidarity amid diversifying populations. There are two ways to do this.	而现今的挑战则是在一个多元化的人口构成中维护紧密团结的意识。


One is to hark back to older modes of solidarity. French identity, for example, is based on the country’s unique brand of republican secularism, known as laïcité.	有两个方法可以做到这一点：一是退回到旧有的团结模式中，比如法国人的身份定义就奠基在其独有的共和世俗主义（法文为laïcité）之上。


But France’s efforts to shore up solidarity by insisting on laïcité and erecting a dam against Muslim immigrants are both ineffective and counter-productive, because they exclude from a sense of fully belonging to the nation many people who are actually in France already.	但法国人试图通过强调世俗主义来巩固团结，并停止接纳穆斯林移民的做法不但无效，还会起反作用，因为这同时也将许多身在法国的人们对这个国家的归属感排斥在外了。


The other way to preserve solidarity is to redefine identity.	另一个维护团结的方法则是重新定义自己的身份。


All democratic societies today are faced with the challenge of redefining their identity in dialogue with some elements that are external, and some that are internal.	在与自身内部或者外部的因素对话的过程中，所有的民主社会都面对着类似的挑战。


Consider the influence of feminist movements throughout the West.	试想一下女权运动对西方的影响。


These are not people who came from outside their countries. They are people who in some ways lacked full citizenship, who demanded it, and who redefined the political order by obtaining it.	那些女权分子并非外国人，而是一些在某些方面被剥夺了公民权利，转而争取这些权利，并通过得到这些权利重新定义了政治秩序的人。


Today the great task is to calm the fears that our traditions are being undermined; to reach out to people who are coming into our lands from other countries; and to find a way of recreating our political ethic around the kernel of human rights, equality, non-discrimination, and democracy.	如今最大的要务则是安抚那些认为传统已经沦丧的恐惧； 去和那些来自异国的移民进行接触和沟通；


If we succeed, we can create a sense that we belong together, even though our reasons for believing so may be different.	并围绕着人权，平等，非歧视和民主这些核心来重新构建我们的政治伦理。 如果这能成功的话，我们就能形成一种人与人之间的归属感，即便每个人对这种归属感的理解可能不同。


But increasing individualism – a focus on one’s own ambitions and economic prosperity – in many countries poses a stubborn obstacle to realizing this vision.	但在许多国家，日渐增长的个人主义（对自身欲望和财富的关注）已经成为实现上述理念的顽固障碍。


Indeed, the utter lack of a sense of solidarity among so many people – horrifyingly evident in the US health-care debate – is now undermining the very basis of what a modern democratic society is.	事实上，太多人毫无团结意识的现状——正如关于美国医疗保险体系的辩论——正腐蚀着一个现代民主社会的最核心基础。


A society’s sense of solidarity can be sustained only if all of its different spiritual groups recreate their sense of dedication to it: if Christians see it as central to their Christianity, if Muslims see it as central to their Islam, and if the various kinds of lay philosophies see it as central to their philosophies.	只有在各宗教团体都能重塑自身对虔诚的定义，并将其放在团结之上时，一个社会的团结意识才能够维持下去——基督教徒视之为基督教的核心，穆斯林视之为伊斯兰教的核心，其他各色宗教也都能将其视之为其教义的核心。


Religion provides a profound and powerful base of solidarity, and to marginalize it would be a big mistake, just as marginalizing atheistic philosophies would be a mistake.	宗教本身为团结提供了一个深厚有力的基础，而排斥宗教则会酿成大错，就像排斥无神论会酿成大错那样。


Democratic societies, in their tremendous diversity, are powered by many different engines of commitment to a common ethic. They cannot afford to switch off any of these engines and hope to maintain a political community.	对于一个极端多元化的民主社会来说，其背后的推动力来自于各种社会力量对同一个共同道德的承诺，而遏制其中任何一种力量却寄望于维持政治团结是不可能的。


Historically, the political ethic of confessional societies has been grounded in a single, basic foundation.	在历史上，神权社会的政治伦理建基于一个简单而基本的基础之上。


In Europe, various kinds of laïque societies have tried to invent themselves out of the ruins of the Christian foundation, but they have made the same mistake in another way, with a kind of Jacobin insistence on the civil religionof the Enlightenment.	在欧洲，所有世俗社会都尝试摆脱天主教的历史阴影，但他们其实也在用另一种方式犯了同样的错误，比如对启蒙运动所提出的“公民宗教”理念的某种雅各宾式的过分强调。


Well, we can no longer have a civil religion – not one based on God, nor on laïcité and the rights of man, nor, indeed, on any particular view.	事实上，我们再也无法拥有一个公民宗教——既非建基于上帝，也非世俗主义以及人权，也不是任何特定的观点。


We live, today, in uncharted territory.	我们如今生活在一个未知之地。


We face a challenge that is unprecedented in human history: creation of a powerful political ethic of solidarity self-consciously grounded on the presence and acceptance of very different views.	我们正面对着人类社会一个前所未有的挑战：建立一个强力有的关于团结的政治论理，而这种伦理又是自觉地建立在对各种大相径庭的观点的存在和接受之上。


This can succeed only if we engage in vigorous exchange with each other in order to create a kind of mutual respect for these different views.	只有我们不断努力和他人沟通并在这些观点之间建立相互尊重，这个目标才能成功。


The advancing force of Islamophobia in Europe and the US, with its attempt to reduce Islam’s complex and varied history to a few demagogic slogans, is the kind of utterly ignorant stupidity – there’s no better description of it – on which democratic societies founder.	在欧洲和美国的反伊斯兰势力，还有其试图将伊斯兰教丰富的历史简化为几句口号的做法，是对民主社会构建基础的彻底无知和愚昧——没有形容词比这更准确了。


But that is true of any kind of dismissive view of the “other.”	但这对于任何蔑视“异类”的观点都是适用的。


Our societies will hold together only if we talk to each other with openness and frankness, and, in doing so, recreate a certain sense of solidarity from all our different roots.	只有我们能互相开放和坦诚地交换意见，我们的社会才能团结起来，最终在各自不同的基础上构建一个共同的团结意识。


New Frontiers in Affordable Housing	平价住房新前沿


SHANGHAI – Providing decent, affordable housing is a growing challenge in developing and developed economies alike.	上海—提供平价、体面的住房已成为发展中和发达国家日益严峻的挑战。


With demand far exceeding supply, the adverse effects – on mobility, productivity, and growth – are (or will be) increasingly apparent.	需求远远大于供给，这导致副作用——流动性、生产率和增长——正在（或将会）日益明显。


Fortunately, there are ways to narrow the affordable-housing gap substantially, using mostly market-based approaches at the municipal level.	幸运的是，在市政级别运用基于市场的办法可以大幅缩小平价住房空白。


Worldwide, 330 million low- and moderate-income urban households either live in substandard housing or are so financially stretched by housing payments that they must forgo spending on essentials like health care and education.	从世界看，3. 3亿中低收入城市家庭要么住在条件较差的住房中，要么因为无力承担住房支出而不得不削减医疗和教育等基本支出。


By 2025, that figure could reach 440 million households, or about 1.6 billion people (one-third of the world’s urban population) – and that does not even cover some of the world’s poorest people, who often live outside of cities, on urban streets, or as squatters, leaving them unaccounted for in census estimates.	到2025年，这一数字可能达到4. 4亿家庭或16亿人（相当于世界城市人口的三分之一）——这其中还不包括世界最贫困人口，他们常常住在城市之外、城市街头或者���屋中，属于人口普查中的“黑户”。


Replacing today’s substandard housing and building the additional units needed by 2025 would require an investment of an estimated $16 trillion – a daunting figure, to say the least.	取代现有劣质住房、建造2025年所需要的新单位需要大约16万亿美元的投资——堪称天文数字。


But there are four key “levers” that can reduce the cost of housing delivery by 20-50%, thereby making housing affordable (amounting to no more than 30% of total income) for households earning 50-80% of the median income in most cities.	但有四个关键“杠杆”能让住房交付成本下降20—50%，从而让大部分城市收入相当于中位值50—80%的家庭住得起房（住房支出占总收入不超过30%）。


The first lever is more efficient land use.	第一个杠杆是提高土地使用效率。


Acquisition of land for development in the right location at a reasonable price has the greatest potential for reducing housing costs.	以合理价格在正确区位收购土地然后开发是最能降低住房成本的手段。


Location is especially important in developing countries, where many areas lack adequate transport, water, electricity, and sanitation infrastructure.	区位在发展中国家尤其重要，在发展中国家，许多地区缺少足够的交通、水电和卫生基础设施。


Investment in these areas would improve and expand land use – whether by unlocking unused land or equipping areas to support more inhabitants – thereby helping to reduce housing costs.	这些地区的投资能改善和扩大土地利用——不管是通过释放未使用土地还是开发区块以支持更多居民——从而有助于降低住房成本。


Similarly, cities can loosen land-use restrictions, such as unit size requirements, to allow for higher-density, and thus more valuable, projects.	类似地，城市可以放松土地使用限制（如单位规模要求）从而提高项目的密度以及价值。


In exchange for providing the increased value to real-estate developers, municipal authorities could require that a portion of the land or a certain number of units be set aside for affordable housing.	作为提高房地产开发商价值的交换，市政当局可以要求留出部分土地或一定数量都单位用于平价住房。


Such a cross-subsidy would increase the housing supply across income bands, at no direct cost to the public.	这一交叉补贴能增加各收入层次的住房供给，并且不直接产生公共成本。


The final step toward improving land use is the implementation of measures to discourage land hoarding.	改善土地使用的最后一项措施打击土地囤积行为。


China, for example, imposes an idle-land tax on formerly public land if its owners fail to initiate the development process within a year.	比如，中国实施了闲置土地税，如果正式公共土地所有者不能在一年内开始开发，就必须缴纳这项税收。


This brings us to the second key lever to expand affordable housing: a more cohesive and efficient construction industry.	这就引出了扩大平价住房的第二个杠杆：更紧密、更有效的建筑业。


As it stands, the housing-construction industry is highly fragmented, impeding its ability to take advantage of economies of scale, and builders often rely largely on the same methods used 50 years ago.	目前，住房建设行业是高度分散的，这限制了利用规模经济的能力，建筑商通常依靠50年前就开始使用的方法。


By standardizing design elements like ceiling heights, fixtures, and flooring, construction companies can cut costs and raise productivity, as workers gain experience with repetitive tasks.	设计要素的标准化——比如天花板高度、固定装置、地板铺设——可以让建筑公司降低成本、提高生产率，因为重复劳动可以让工人积累经验。


Further savings are possible through industrial approaches, such as the use of components – for example, walls and flooring slabs – built offsite.	进一步的节省可以通过产业方针实现，如使用预制件——比如墙体和地板。


And most builders lag behind other industries in terms of the efficiency of purchasing and other processes.	大部分建筑商在采购和其他程序方面的效率落后于其他行业。


Together, these improvements could cut housing-construction costs by up to 30% and delivery time by 40-50%.	总的来说，这些改善能够让住房建设成本下降最多30%，交付时间缩短最多40—50%。


The third key lever to make housing more affordable relates to operations and maintenance – everything from heating the building to repairing cracked tiles – which account for 20-30% of total housing costs.	让住房更加廉价的第三个关键杠杆与施工和维护有关——从建筑供暖到修补裂纹都包括在其中——这些成本占住房成本总额的20—30%。


Here, the biggest opportunity lies in efforts to improve energy efficiency, with insulation, windows, and other retrofits generating energy savings of 20-30%.	在这里，最大的机会在于改善能源效率，隔热、窗户和其他翻新能节约20—30%的能源。


Additional savings would be possible if maintenance and repair companies were more transparent and competitive, and operated on a larger scale.	如果维护和修理公司能够更透明、竞争更激烈、经营规模更大，还能带来更多的节约。


To this end, public institutions could certify and list suppliers that meet quality standards, or bring owners together in buying consortia – an approach that has helped the United Kingdom’s social-housing agencies cut costs on some items by more than 20%.	在这方面，公共机构可以认证和公示符合治疗标准的供应商，或组织所有人参与团购——这一方法让英国的社会住房机构在某些项目上节约了超过20%的成本。


The final affordable-housing lever is expanded access to finance, especially for low-income households, which often face the highest borrowing costs – if they can gain access to finance at all.	最后一个平价住房杠杆是扩大融资手段，特别是低收入家庭的融资手段。 低收入家庭往往面临最高的借贷成本——如果能够获得融资的话。


For the world’s many “unbanked,” who cannot accumulate savings or establish a credit record, the only option is to pay steep risk premiums for high loan-to-value mortgages.	对世界上许多“无银行服务”的人（即无法累积存款或建立信用记录的人）来说，唯一的选择是为高贷款-房价比按揭支付极高的风险溢价。


To expand access to finance, countries can improve underwriting by establishing credit bureaus, which are uncommon in developing economies, and training and certifying property appraisers.	为了扩大融资手段，国家可以通过建立信用局（credit bureaus，发展中国家不常见）和培训和认证产权评估师改善贷款的发放。


In some countries, collective-savings programs – that is, provident funds and building societies – have helped low-income households to accumulate down payments, with the pooled savings also providing capital for low-interest mortgages.	在一些国家，集体储蓄计划——即公积金和建房互助会——也有助于低收入家庭累积首付，集合起来的存款也为低息按揭提供了资本。


At the same time, to reduce financing costs for developers, municipal bodies can “de-risk” projects by committing to purchase affordable units or guaranteeing qualified tenants.	与此同时，为了降低开发商融资成本，市政机构可以通过承诺购买平价单位或保证合格租户来实现项目的“去风险”。


Cities can also streamline approval processes to accelerate completion.	城市还可以精简审批程序以加速完工。


These four levers, if used systematically, can reduce the costs of housing for those who need it the most, while creating a better-functioning market that provides more choices for households across income levels.	如果得到系统性的使用，这四个杠杆能够降低最需要住房者的居住成本，同时建立功能更加健全的市场从而为各个收入层次的家庭提供更多选择。


Indeed, while municipal and national governments will have to take additional measures to address the needs of their poorest citizens, cities have powerful tools at their disposal for closing their affordable-housing gaps.	事实上，尽管市政和国家政府必须采取更多措施解决最贫困公民的需要，但城市拥有大量有力工具可用于填补平价住房空缺。


Though no single solution will work everywhere, initiatives that integrate land policy and more accessible finance with efforts to modernize housing construction and management can lead to progress everywhere.	没有简单的方案能放之四海而皆准，但将土地政策和扩大融资与住房建设和管理现代化结合起来的措施能够在所有地方都有所进步。


Somalia’s New Pirates	索马里的新海盗


MOGADISHU – Somalia is blessed with the largest coastline in continental Africa.	摩加迪休—索马里拥有非洲大陆最长的海岸线。


Our rich marine waters are some of the most productive in the world, teeming with schools of yellowfin tuna, blue marlin, dolphinfish, and sardines.	我国富饶的海域是全世界物产最丰富的海域之一，这里有成群结队的黄鳍金枪鱼、蓝枪鱼、鲯鳅和鳁鱼。


For more than 30 years, however, this bountiful marine wilderness has also been a source and site of conflict, as foreign illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing vessels have plundered our waters – stealing our fish and selling their catches at distant ports.	但是30多年来，这片富饶的海洋荒野沦为冲突之源，来自外国的非法、未报告和不受监管（IUU）渔船肆无忌惮地掠夺着我们的大海——偷取我们的鱼，运到遥远的港口卖出。


Just a few years ago, the encroachment of illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing vessels sparked a wave of piracy in Somalia that cost the global maritime shipping industry billions of dollars in lost revenue.	仅仅几年前，IUU渔船的入侵催生了一大波索马里海盗，导致全球海洋运输业付出数十亿美元的收入损失。


As illegal foreign fishing vessels fled our waters, Somali pirates quickly shifted their focus toward more lucrative vessels, such as cargo ships and oil tankers.	非法外国渔船逃离我国海域后，索马里海盗很快又将注意力对准了更加有利可图的船只，比如货轮和油轮。


And, now that piracy has mostly been eliminated, there is growing evidence that foreign fishing vessels have returned to plunder our waters once again.	此外，如今海盗已经基本肃清，越来越多的证据表明外国渔船又回来掠夺我国海域了。


A new report by the group Secure Fisheries, called Securing Somali Fisheries unveils new satellite data showing that foreign IUU fishing vessels are now catching three times more fish than Somalis.	安全渔业（Secure Fisheries）组织的新报告——《保卫索马里渔场》（Securing Somali Fisheries）所披露的新卫星数据表明，如今外国IUU渔船的捕捞量是索马里渔船的四倍。


They are targeting some of the highest-value fish in our waters, leaving their Somali counterparts to compete over lower-value fish.	它们把目标对准了我国海域内价值最高的鱼种，导致索马里渔船只能竞争低价值鱼种。


The report shows that, making matters worse, these foreign fleets have contributed to overfishing our swordfish, snapper, marlin, and shark populations.	报告表明，更糟糕的是，这些外国船队过度捕捞我们的剑鱼、鲷鱼、枪鱼和鲨鱼。


Foreign bottom trawlers have fished recklessly and acted with impunity, dragging heavy nets, razing the bottom of our seafloor, and damaging an astounding 120,000 square kilometers (46,000 square miles) of important marine habitat.	外国海底拖网渔船肆无忌惮地捕捞而不受惩罚，它们拖拽巨网，横扫我们的海床，破坏了令人咋舌的120,000平方公里的重要海洋生物栖息地。


The damage is so extensive that even if trawling were stopped today, this area may need many years to recover.	它们造成的破坏如此之广，即使现在就中止拖网捕捞，这片海域也需要多年时间才能恢复。


This pillaging of our marine ecosystem is taking place even as Somalia has made great strides over the last 18 months toward better management of our waters.	我国海域横遭如此掠夺，而这甚至是在索马里在过去18个月中大大改善了海域管理的情况下发生的。


In June 2014, my government laid claim to Somalia’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), in line with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This past December, we also passed the Somali Fisheries Law, which explicitly outlaws bottom trawling.	2014年6月，我的政府根据联合国海洋法公约宣布了200海里专属经济区，我们还通过了索马里渔业法，明确海底拖网捕捞为非法。


This groundbreaking legislation calls for improved monitoring of fish landings, an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries’ management whereby the area would be managed holistically, and the protection of threatened and endangered fish species.	这一突破性立法要求改善对渔获码头的监督，采取基于生态系统的方针进行渔场管理以实现渔场地区的全面管理，以及保护受威胁及濒危鱼种。


But, despite all our progress in strengthening fisheries’ management domestically, we lack the ability to police our vast waters.	但是，尽管我们从国内采取了各种加强渔场管理的搓死，但我们没有能力管理我们广袤的海域。


The international community could make a significant difference in this area, by helping my government monitor and control Somalia’s EEZ, as well as through improved sharing of the critical intelligence gathered by international naval patrols.	国际社会可以在这方面大显身手，帮助我国政府监督和控制索马里专属经济区，改善由国际海域巡逻舰队搜集的重要情报的共享。


According to the Secure Fisheries’ report, eliminating IUU fishing today would enable Somalia to begin to license and sell commercially valuable tuna sustainably, generating up to $17 million per year.	根据渔业安全组织的报告，现在就取缔IUU捕捞能让索马里开始发放许可并可持续地出售经济价值极高的金枪鱼，每年可获得170亿美元收入。


These funds could then be reinvested into better infrastructure – such as port construction, improved cold storage, and modern processing facilities – to support our artisanal and industrial fishing fleets.	这笔资金可以再投资于改善基础设施——如港口建设、改进冷藏系统和现代处理设施等——以支持我国手工和工业化渔船。


The elimination of IUU fishing would also allow our overfished stocks to recover and help build a prosperous Somali domestic fishery, along with increased government support and funding for data collection and resource management.	取缔IUU捕捞还有助于我国遭到过度捕捞的鱼种存量恢复，帮助建立繁荣的索马里国内渔业，并在此过程中增加对数据收集和资源管理的政府支持和资金。


The report shows that healthy fish stocks could provide significantly greater amounts of resources than they currently do.	报告表明，健康的鱼种存量能够以远比目前更大的规模提供资源。 。


In fact, almost half of our managed fisheries are currently exploited at sustainable levels.	事实上，我国近一半的有管理的渔场目前以实现可持续捕捞。


But we need more investment in better infrastructure to realize our industry’s full potential.	但我们需要更多地投资于改进基础设施以实现我国渔业的全部潜力。


Fishing in Somali waters must not be allowed to remain a free-for-all, where far-flung foreign fleets exploit the ecosystem in unsustainable ways.	在索马里海域捕捞决不能继续自由放任状态，否则各种外国远洋船队将以不可持续的方式掠夺我们的生态系统。


I call upon the international community to collaborate with my government to ensure that IUU fishing in Somali waters is stopped for good.	我呼吁国际社会与我的政府合作确保索马里海域的IUU捕捞立即停止。


Doing so would improve maritime security and promote a vibrant domestic fishing industry that benefits and helps sustain all Somalis.	这样做将改善海洋安全、促进生机勃勃的国内渔业，惠及和帮助所有索马里人。


A sustainable, dynamic fishing industry would help us build a more stable and prosperous Somalia.	一个可持续、有活力的渔业将版主我们建设更稳定、更繁荣的索马里。


Given our country’s great potential and its strategic location, that is an outcome that everyone should be willing to support.	我国拥有巨大的潜力和战略区位，这一结果应该得到所有人的支持。


Somalia’s Endless Hell	无尽炼狱索马里


MOGADISHU -- Somalia’s internal conflict is propelled by a combustible mix of religion, politics, and clan rivalry.	摩加迪沙—索马里的内乱是在宗教、政治和部族冲突等不稳定因素的混合作用下发生的。


Civilians are killed daily in Mogadishu, there are roadside bombs and mortar attacks, and politicians and journalists are targeted.	在摩加迪沙，每天都有平民死于非命； 汽车炸弹和实弹袭击层出不穷，政客和记者们成为袭击的目标。


Making matters worse, the country has suffered this year from both floods and drought.	祸不单行，该国今年又被洪水和干旱肆虐。


This combination of insecurity and natural disasters has displaced huge numbers of people and caused suffering on a scale painful to behold.	在不安全的局势和自然灾害的夹击下大量的人流离失所，其状惨不忍睹。


According to the most recent United Nations figures, 400,000 people, or roughly one-third of Mogadishu’s population, have fled the city.	据联合国的最新数据显示，有四十万人（约等于摩加迪沙三分之一的人口）逃离了该城。


Yet Somalia still rarely gets into the headlines.	可索马里仍然很少成为新闻的头条。


This partly reflects the near impossibility of gathering news.	这在一定程度上反映了相关新闻采集的极度困难。


Few foreign journalists venture in – it is too difficult and too dangerous for them to work inside the country – and local reporters are harassed by the authorities.	很少有新闻记者冒险进入该国—在索马里工作太困难也太危险—当地的记者则遭到当局的骚扰。


And, even when there is news, the world’s capacity to absorb bad and sad stories from yet another hellish place is limited.	即便有新闻发生的时候，世界对于来自另一个炼狱般国度的内容悲惨的新闻报道的耐受力也是有限的。


Since last December, Somalia has been in a de facto state of civil war.	自从去年十二月开始索马里就进入了实际的内战状态。


The secular government, supported by the UN, the European Union, and the United States, with military reinforcements from Ethiopia, has been fighting insurgents from the Union of Islamic Courts, a group accused of harboring al-Qaeda terrorists whose leaders are supported by Eritrea.	得到联合国、欧盟和美国支持，并拥有来自埃塞俄比亚的援军的世俗政府一直与伊斯兰法庭联盟的叛乱者进行战斗。 该组织被控为“基地”恐怖分子提供庇护，而其领导人也得到了厄立特里亚的支持。


The lawlessness and absence of security makes finding a political solution almost impossible.	这种无法无天的局面使得寻求政治解决方案几乎没有可能。


When local elders and delegates wanted to assemble in Mogadishu for a reconciliation conference, security conditions forced them to postpone the conference for several months (though when they did meet, in big numbers and for a long time, they achieved no breakthrough).	当地的长老和代表想要在摩加迪沙召开一次和解大会时，安全状况迫使他们将会期延迟了几个月（尽管他们最终会晤，这场参与者众且历时绵长的会议最终也没有取得突破）。


A plane with the UN envoy for human rights was denied landing rights in Baidoa (seat of the Somali parliament) not long ago, and pilots sometimes refuse to fly foreigners to Mogadishu, because it is too dangerous.	前不久，一架载有联合国人权特使的飞机被拒绝在Baidoa（索马里议会所在地）着陆。 飞行员有时会拒绝将外国人送到摩加迪沙，因为那里太危险。


The same lack of security applies to delivering aid: on a recent visit to North Somalia to assess humanitarian needs, a team from the International Rescue Committee of which I was a part spent more time, effort, and funds on security issues than on inspecting wells and evaluating the need for latrines, although the lack of water and sanitation is acute.	在援助的实施方面也同样缺乏安全保障：在我亲历的国际救援委员会对索马里北部的最近一次评估考察中，我们的团队在安全事务方面花费的时间、精力和资金比在考察水井状况和对厕所的需求上还要多。 虽然缺水和卫生问题是当务之急。


On a 25 mile stretch of road between the southern cities of Kismayo and Jilib, there are at least 35 checkpoints manned by armed men who take $50 to $200 from passing travelers.	在南部城市Kismayo和Jilib之间二十五英里的道路上，至少有三十五个检查站。 值守的武装人员向行人收取五十至三百美金的过路费。


Offshore, piracy seriously disrupts aid being brought in by ships.	在沿海，猖獗的海盗行为也极大地影响了船运的救援物资。


One incident in southern Somalia vividly demonstrated how insecurity can hamper humanitarian work.	在索马里南部发生的事件清楚地表明了不安全的局面会如何妨碍人道主义工作。


While our assessment team was in the town of Marare, a banal scene of two friends in their twenties having breakfast turned into a major drama when one of the boys mishandled his Kalashnikov and accidentally killed his friend.	当我们的评估团队在Marare时，目睹了两位二十多岁的男孩共进早餐的寻常事变成一幕夸张的惨剧：其中一人不慎擦枪走火，误杀了另一个。


The boys were from the same clan, but, alas, from different sub-clans.	这两个年轻人来自同一个部族，但分属不同的家族。


The customary procedure is that the victim’s family gets to kill someone from the perpetrator’s sub-clan.	按传统规则，受害者的家族可以杀死行凶者家族的一名成员作为报复。


The elders of the two sub-clans spent four days negotiating a less bloody solution, and the agreed price of 100 camels – worth $7,000 – was paid as compensation.	两个家族的长老花了四天时间谈判出一个较不血腥的方案，商定的价码是一百头骆驼—价值七千美金—作为补偿。


But during those four days, work at the local hospital (run by an international non-governmental organization) was impeded, as all staff from the perpetrator’s sub-clan stayed away from their jobs, lest they be targeted for a revenge killing.	但在这四天里，由于职员中的行凶者家族成员都没有上班（否则他们会成为报复杀人的目标），当地医院（由一家国际非政府组织开办）的工作受到了极大地影响。


The dilemma that the accident presented is not easy for a foreigner to understand.	这一事件所反映的困境是外国人很难理解的。


But the way the elders steered clear of a violent resolution is an admirable example of good governance.	但长老们通过协商避免了暴力的解决方案则是良好治理的一个值得称道的例子。


If only such practices were used to tackle the vast majority of the problems that overwhelm Somalia.	要是这种做法被用来处理索马里所面临的大多数问题就好了。


In this quintessential “failed state,” this sort of elders’ wisdom may be the only option to start dealing with the quagmire created by the lawlessness that has gripped the country since the departure of the dictator Said Barre in 1991.	在这个本质上“已经废掉的国家”，这种长老智慧可能是解决重重困难的唯一可行的切入点。 该国自从独裁者Said Barre在1991年离开以后，就陷入了无政府主义的深渊。


Ignoring the situation in Somalia and not trying to reestablish law and order is not an option.	忽视索马里的局势并放弃重建法律与秩序的努力不是我们选择。


The two main factions fighting in Mogadishu are backed, respectively, by Ethiopia and Eritrea.	在摩加迪沙交战的两个主要派系分别由埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚支持，因为这两个国家—都属于非洲最穷的国家—有着未获解决的边界争端。


Because those nations - among the poorest in Africa - have an unresolved border dispute that led to a 1998-2000 war in which tens of thousand died on both sides and hostilities in the area continue, their involvement, by proxy, in the Somali civil war may have grave implications for the entire Horn of Africa.	这种争端引发了1998-2000年的战争，在战争中双方都有成千上万的人死亡。 这种敌对局面依然继续，因此双方通过代理介入索马里内战，对于整个“非洲之角”都有不祥的影响。


Sorry States	当国家道歉之时


PARIS – National repentance is in the news again, as it has been with remarkable frequency in recent years.	发自巴黎——近年突然频繁出现的国家级忏悔行动如今又登上了新闻栏。


In 2008, Australia’s then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd apologized to his country’s Aborigines, while Queen Elizabeth II offered a moving gesture of contrition in Ireland a few months ago.	2008年，时任澳洲总理的陆克文代表国家向土著原居民道歉。 几个月前英女王伊丽莎白二世也在访问爱尔兰时（对两国历史冲突所造成的伤害）展现出了感人的抱歉姿态。


And now, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, on a recent visit to the Caucasus, reiterated his advice to the Turks to “repent” for the massacres of Armenians committed by the decaying Ottoman regime in 1915.	而法国总统萨科齐最近在访问高加索地区时则重申土耳其应当对1915年没落的奥斯曼帝国对亚美尼亚人进行的大屠杀“表示忏悔”。


Of course, Sarkozy would be surprised to be told that the same logic should lead to a declaration of repentance by the French state to Algeria, not to mention to the Algerian soldiers who fought under the French banner, the so-called “Harkis,” many of whom were abandoned to a terrible fate when France left the country in a hurry.	但估计萨科齐同时会大吃一惊，因为同样的逻辑也可适用于法国对阿尔及利亚的忏悔行动，更别提那些在阿尔及利亚独立战争中站在法军一方的阿尔及利亚士兵。 这些所谓“战斗团（Harki）”中的大多数人都在法军匆忙撤离之后遭遇了可悲的命运。


As for those who managed to survive and cross the Mediterranean, France dumped them in segregated, under-served ghettos.	而其中得以幸存并横渡地中海逃到法国的人则被抛弃在了少数民族聚居区——不但遭到隔离，而且无法享受任何政府服务。


For many political leaders and analysts, repentance is a misplaced and excessive form of sensitivity.	对于许多政治领袖和分析家来说，忏悔是一种错位和泛滥的感性行为。


History is tough, they say.	他们认为历史是无情的。


Besides, where does one begin apologizing – or, rather, end?	再说，这种道歉应该从何而起——又到何时为止呢？


Should one apologize for the Crusades, for the destruction of German cities by the armies of King Louis the XIV in the seventeenth century, not to mention the armies of Napoleon?	是否有人应该为十字军东征道歉？ 为17世纪法国国王路易十四旗下的军队对德国城市的破坏道歉？


Wouldn’t the result simply be to turn history into a perpetual cycle of contrition?	更别提拿破仑大军的所做所为了。 而这样做的后果难道不会令历史变成一个悔恨抱歉的无限循环？


Yet, in a globalized age, which demands transparency and posits interdependence, repentance can be considered an instrument of good governance.	但在如今这个呼吁透明和互相依存的全球化时代，忏悔可以被视为良好治理的一种工具。


A country that has lifted the carpet of myth and indifference under which the negative aspects of its past were swept is better able to manage itself and accommodate others.	历史中的负面信息常常遭到掩盖，而一个能够揭开迷雾并直面过去的国家更能在管理好自身的同时包容他人。


Japan has never learned to interact with its Asian neighbors the way that Germany after World War II learned to cooperate with its future European partners, partly because its apologies have appeared formalistic and half-hearted, when they have taken place at all.	德国在二战后学会了如何与未来的欧洲伙伴进行合作，而日本与自己的亚洲邻居之间却未能实现这一点，这在某种程度上是因为该国的道歉总是像一场口是心非的表演。


The European Union exists (whatever its current difficulties) because Germany asked for forgiveness.	虽然目前遭遇了些许困难，但欧盟之所以能存在就是因为德国请求宽恕。


And Germany today is able to distance itself – though clearly at the margin – from Israel’s current government because Germans fully confronted their past in ways that many of their neighbors have not.	而这种全方位直面过去的行为——其许多邻国都做不到这一点——使德国得以和当今的以色列政府划清界限。


To ask for forgiveness enables one to speak to the “Other” without ambiguity, with the freedom of speech needed to express truth.	请求宽恕的行为使一个人能使用说出真相所需的自由表达权利，毫不含糊地与“他人”对话。


Indeed, former French President Jacques Chirac won a place in French history by proclaiming France’s responsibility for the crimes committed by the collaborationist Vichy government against its Jewish citizens during the Nazi occupation. The fiction, popularized by General Charles de Gaulle and pursued by François Mitterrand, that “Vichy was not France” had finally been interred.	事实上法国前总统希拉克就因此在法国历史上赢得了自己的一席之地，因为他正式承认了法国维希政府在纳粹占领期间对其犹太公民所犯下的罪行，从而使“维希并非法国”这个由戴高乐始发并被密特朗进一步推广的荒谬说法彻底破产。


Who will be the French president courageous enough to apologize to Algeria and the Harkis?	哪一位法国总统能有足够的勇气去向阿尔及利亚和“战斗团”成员道歉？


Of course, French crimes during Algeria’s war of independence resemble those of Nazi Germany in neither scale nor motivation.	其实跟纳粹德国相比，法国人在阿尔及利亚独立战争中所犯下的罪行无论是在程度和动机上都算轻微。


It can be argued that during the colonial era, France willed the happiness of Algerians, not only the greatness of France.	有人可以说在殖民时期，法国人不但关心法兰西的荣耀，还不忘阿尔及利亚人的福祉。


But it was the French who defined “happiness,” without consultation with the Algerians, much less their consent.	但这种“福祉”是由法国人单方面定义的，既没有征询阿尔及利亚人的意见，更没有取得他们的同意。