Moreover, how to restructure the financial system remains unclear.	此外，如何重建金融系统依然缺乏方向不明。


The Glass-Steagall Act’s separation of investment from commercial banking greatly benefited the established oligarchy of investment banks, but somehow the entry of competitors from commercial banks and insurers increased financial companies’ profits further.	格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案（Glass-Steagall Act）分隔投资银行和商业银行的做法极大促进了投资银行寡头的崛起，而来自商业银行和保险公司的竞争不知为何又进一步推高了金融企业的利润水平。


There were significant profit opportunities for financial intermediaries that could find spare risk-bearing capacity, carve out securities to take advantage of it, and thus take a middleman’s cut from matching risks with investors who could gain from bearing them.	对于那些能发现市场上的剩余风险承担能力，由此创设相关证券产品，随后找到能承担这些风险的投资者并收取佣金的金融中间商来说，赚大钱的机会比比皆是。


But the advent of derivatives concentrated risk rather than dispersing it, for there was even more money to be made by selling risk to people who did not know how to value it – or, indeed, what risks they were bearing.	但金融衍生品的出现非但没能分散风险，反而导致了风险的集中，因为把这些风险销售给那些不知如何衡量这类风险的人——这些人事实上连自己承担了何种风险都不清楚——能挣更加多的钱。


And central banks’ failure to regard their primary job to be the stabilization of nominal income – their failure not only to be good Keynesians, but even good monetarists – raises the question of whether central banking itself needs drastic reform.	而那些中央银行在履行其本职工作（稳定名义收入）方面的失职使之不但没能成为优秀的凯恩斯主义者，连好的货币主义者都算不上，也令人们不禁质疑这些机构是否也需要来一场大改革。


Back in 1825, the Bank of England’s Governor Cornelius Buller understood that when the private sector had a sudden panic-driven spike in demand for safe and liquid financial assets, it was the Bank’s responsibility to meet that demand and so keep bankruptcy and depression at bay.	早在1825年，英格兰银行行长康纳硫斯·布勒就意识到当私人部门出于某种恐慌而突然产生对安全和流动金融资产的需求时，英格兰银行就有责任提供这类资产以防止破产和衰退。


How can his successors know less than he did?	而他的继任者们又怎么连这一点都不懂呢？


It may even be the case that we ought to return to the much more tightly regulated financial system of the first post-World War II generation.	由此看来，我们甚至有可能会恢复到二战后那种管制更为严格的金融体系。


That system served the industrial core well, at least as far as we can tell from the macroeconomic aggregates.	那个系统很好地服务了各大工业国，至少我们可以在宏观经济总量上看到这一点。


We know for certain that our more recent system has not.	另外我们也清楚地知道：当前所使用的这套系统做不到这一点。


Common Sense on Conflict Minerals	关于冲突矿产的常识


LONDON – “That diamond upon your finger, say how came it yours?” asks Shakespeare’s Cymbeline.	伦敦—“那个在你手指上的钻石，说一下它是怎么样变成你的？ ” 莎士比亚笔下的辛柏林（Cymbeline）问。


“Thou’lt torture me,” responds the villainous Iachimo, “to leave unspoken that which, to be spoke, would torture thee.”	“他们折磨着我，”邪恶的埃阿基莫（Iachimo）回答，“并且不会出声告诉你，它们也会折磨你。


The story behind certain parts of the global trade in natural resources today, whether spoken or not, is no less a source of anguish.	”如今，在某些全球自然资源贸易的背后的故事——不管有没有说出来——也是那么令人痛苦。


Natural resources should be a major contributor to development in some of the countries that need it most.	自然资源应该成为一些最需要它的国家的主要发展贡献源泉。


And yet, in some of world’s poorest and most fragile states, they bring just the opposite.	但是，在一些最贫穷、最脆弱的国家，自然资源带来了完全相反地东西。


In many of these countries, the trade in natural resources motivates, funds, and prolongs conflict and egregious human-rights abuses.	在许多这些国家，自然资源贸易刺激、出资和延长了冲突和骇人听闻的人权侵害。


Resources such as diamonds, gold, tungsten, tantalum, and tin are mined, smuggled, and illegally taxed by violent armed groups, and provide off-budget funding to abusive militaries and security services.	钻石、黄金、钨、钽和锡由武装集团采掘、走私和非法课税，为暴虐的军队和安全部门提供预算外资金。


Consider just four African countries: Sudan, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.	以四个非洲国家为例：苏丹、南苏丹、中非共和国和民主刚果。


Together, these resource-rich countries account for just over 13% of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa, but some 55% of the region’s internally displaced persons (and one in five worldwide) due to conflict.	这四个国家加起来只占撒哈拉以南非洲地区13%多的人口，但产生了该地区因冲突而在国内流离失所人口的55%（全世界而言则是五分之一）。


But the problem is global, with similar patterns in parts of countries such as Colombia, Myanmar, and Afghanistan.	但这一问题是全球性的，哥伦比亚、缅甸和阿富汗的各地区也存在类似的现象。


The deadly trade in conflict resources is facilitated by supply chains that feed major consumer markets, such as the European Union and the United States, with cash flowing back the other way.	冲突资源的死亡贸易受供给主要消费市场（如欧盟和美国）的供应链的支持，资金流动方向则正好相反。


Natural resources, such as tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold – all minerals that have been linked in some parts of the world to conflict and human-rights abuses – are found in our jewelry, cars, mobile phones, games consoles, medical equipment, and countless other everyday products.	自然资源——比如锡、钽、钨和黄金，它们都与世界某些地方的冲突和人权侵害有关——可用于我们的珠宝、汽车、移动电话、游戏机、医疗器械和数不清的日用品。


There is clear consumer demand for information that will help buyers make sure that their purchases do not implicate them in appalling abuses.	帮助买家确定他们的购买行为不会牵涉到可怕的侵害行径的信息需求是显而易见的。


But the responsibility to reconcile global commerce with the protection of basic human rights does not fall first and foremost on consumers.	但协调全球商业和基本人权保护责任并不是消费者的首要责任。


Conflict prevention and human-rights protection are primarily the responsibility of states, and it is increasingly recognized that businesses must play their part as well.	冲突预防和人权保护主要是国家的责任，并且人们日渐认识到企业也必须有所贡献。


Indeed, we are now at a critical point in what has become a global movement to stop irresponsible corporate practices from being viewed as business as usual.	事实上，我们正处于掀起一场全球运动，不再承认不负责任的企业行为为正常现象的临界点上。


Since 2010, companies working in conflict areas have had a global standard at their disposal.	自2010年以来，在冲突地区经营的公司有了全球行为准则。


The OECD offers guidance on how to source minerals responsibly.	经合组织提出了如何负责任地寻找矿产来源的行为指引。


Developed in close collaboration with the industry, it offers “detailed recommendations to help companies respect human rights and avoid contributing to conflict through their mineral purchasing decisions and practices.”	该指引与业界密切合作制定，提供了“详细建议以使公司尊重人权、避免其矿产采购决定和行为助长冲突。 ”


The United Nations has also endorsed similar requirements.	联合国也支持类似的要求。


In 2011, the UN published a set of Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights, according to which companies whose “operating contexts pose risks of severe human rights impacts should report formally on how they address them.”	2011年，联合国发布了一组《关于商业和人权的指导原则》（Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights），根据该���则，公司“的经营环境如果可能带来严重人权影响，则应该递交如何解决的正式报告。 ”


And yet, with the exception of a few progressive industry leaders, few companies have responded to this voluntary guidance.	但是，除了极少数进步行业领导者之外，很少有公司响应这一自愿引导原则。


In 2013, Dutch researchers surveyed 186 companies listed on European stock exchanges that make use of conflict minerals.	2013年，荷兰研究者186家在欧洲证券交易所上市的使用冲突矿产的公司。


More than 80% made no mention on their Web sites of what they had done to avoid funding conflict or human rights abuses.	80%以上没有在网站中提到它们如何毕避免为冲突或人权侵害提供资金。


Similarly, the European Commission’s Directorate General for Trade found that only 7% of 153 EU companies refer to a due-diligence policy for conflict minerals in their annual reports or on their Web sites.	类似地，欧盟委员会贸易总司（Directorate General for Trade）发现，在153家欧盟公司中，只有7%在年报或网站中提到了对冲突矿产的尽职调查。


The United States has already taken the next logical step.	美国已经采取了下一步。


The Securities and Exchange Commission requires companies that use tantalum, tin, gold or tungsten in their products to investigate these raw materials’ origin, and to mitigate risks in their supply chains in line with the OECD Guidance if they are found to originate in certain conflict-affected or high-risk areas.	证券和交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Commission，SEC）要求在产品中使用钽、锡、黄金或钨公司调查原材料的来源，如果发现来源于冲突影响或高风险地区，必须根据经合组织指引减轻供应链风险。


The 12 member countries of Africa’s International Conference on the Great Lakes Region have committed to similar mandatory due-diligence requirements.	非洲大湖区国际会议（International Conference on the Great Lakes Region）的12个成员也承诺了类似的强制性尽职调查要求。


That is as it should be.	理应如此。


Responsible sourcing is a duty, not a choice.	负责任地追溯来源是一种责任而不是一个选项。


And here, the EU is lagging behind.	在这方面，欧盟正在落后。


In March, the European Commission proposed a plan under which disclosure would continue to be voluntary, meaning that the minerals that enter the EU would not be subject to mandatory checks.	3月份，欧盟提出一项计划，根据该计划，披露将继续是自愿性质，这意味着进入欧盟的矿产不需要接受强制性检查。


The proposal, furthermore, focuses exclusively on raw ores and metals, and excludes products that contain the relevant minerals, such as mobile phones, vehicles, and medical equipment.	此外，该计划的注意力完全放在了原矿石和金属上，而排除了包含相关矿产的产品如移动电话、汽车和医疗器械。


The proposal is now being reviewed by the European Parliament and the European Council.	如今，该计划正由欧洲议会和欧洲理事会进行审核。


It is crucial that both institutions seize this opportunity to strengthen the EU’s response by making disclosure and compliance mandatory and extending coverage to include finished and semi-finished products.	关键是两大机构都必须抓住这次机会，通过强制性披露和合规要求以及将覆盖面扩大到制成品和半制成品来强化欧盟的责任。


Better regulating the trade in these resources will not itself bring peace to conflict-affected areas.	更好地监管这些资源的贸易本身无法给冲突地区带来和平。


But funding conflict and human-rights abuses is not an acceptable cost of doing business.	但为冲突和人权侵害提供资金绝不是可以接受的做生意的成本。


Confronting Fear	战胜恐惧


WASHINGTON, DC – Even as the squeeze in interbank lending has started to ease after the rescue of financial systems across the advanced countries, falling economic indicators have sent stock markets tumbling.	华盛顿-即便在发达国家出手拯救金融体系使银行间借款的萎缩开始缓解后，不断下滑的经济指数还是使股票市场持续下跌。


Pressures on emerging-market countries, which were once thought by many to have “decoupled” from the rest of the world, have intensified as foreign loans are called in and assets sold off.	曾经被许多人认为与世界其他地区“分隔”开的新兴市场国家随着外国贷款撤出以及资产变卖也开始承受越来越大的压力。


With fear gripping consumers, companies, and countries worldwide, talk has turned from a moderate advanced-country recession to a major world depression.	随着恐惧心理在全世界消费者、企业以及各个国家之间的蔓延，人们谈论的话题已经从发达国家温和的经济衰退转变为严重的全球经济衰退。


A sense of despondency has set in that nothing can be done to stop it.	有一种悲观的情绪认为随便我们怎么做都无法阻止它的发生。


What is going on?	发生了什么事情？


Were the measures taken two weeks ago to shore up the financial system simply wrong?	两周之前所采取的那些稳定金融体系的措施难道都错了吗？


Absolutely not.	当然不是。


The provision of liquidity, the recapitalization of banks, more uniform deposit insurance across the advanced countries – these were all correct and necessary measures.	流动资金的提供、银行的重新资本化以及发达国家更加统一的存款保险，这些都是完全正确并且必要的措施。


But they were only the first installment on what needs to be done.	但是后面还有很多的事情需要我们去做。


In the advanced countries, the fall in asset values and, more generally, fear of what comes next has shattered consumer and business confidence. Consumption is dropping, and companies are cutting investment.	在发达国家，资产价值的下跌以及随之而来的普遍的恐惧心理沉重地打击了消费者和企业的信心，这导致消费持续下降以及公司削减投资。


The financial crisis has created a sharp fall in demand, what economists call a “Keynesian recession.”	金融危机造成了需求的极度萎缩，对此经济学家称之为“凯恩斯衰退”。


To help confidence revive, there is no alternative but to use macroeconomic tools to boost demand and sustain output.	要重建信心，我们只有使用宏观经济工具来刺激需求和维持产量。


Monetary policy can be used in countries where interest rates remain high, but its effectiveness in a credit squeeze is likely to be limited.	那些利率依然保持在高位的国家可以运用货币政策，但是这种政策在信用紧缩时期的有效性可能会很有限。


Fiscal policy must, therefore, play a central role.	因此，财政政策必须扮演关键的角色。


Fiscal expansion is always risky, as it adds to debt and raises dangers later.	扩大财政支出通常是有风险的，因为它会增加债务以及可能在将来引发危险。


But, given where we are, the benefits exceed the costs in countries with sustainable debt.	但是鉴于我们现在所面临的局面，在那些债务水平可持续的国家运用这种政策所带来的利益会大于其代价。


Emerging-market countries face an additional problem.	新兴市场国家还面临另外一个问题。


Not only must they contend with the prospect of falling exports and confidence; they also are the latest victims of a financial crisis that started in the United States, traveled to Europe, and now has swept across their borders.	它们不但面临着出口和信心的下滑，同时它们还是这场始于美国、随后蔓延到欧洲、现在已经涌入它们国界的金融危机最近的受害者。


Foreign investors are repatriating their funds on an unprecedented scale. Ironically, the measures being taken to resolve the crisis in advanced countries are making it more attractive to bring money home, making life harder for emerging-market countries.	外资银行正在削减贷款发放，外国投资者正在以前所未有的规模把资金撤回国内，发达国家为应对危机而采取的措施使它们把资金撤回国内变得更有吸引力，从而使新兴市场国家的日子变得更加艰难。


In order to shore up their financial systems and overall demand, emerging-market countries must be ready to take actions similar to those pursued by the advanced countries.	为了稳定金融体系以及总体需求，新兴市场国家必须准备好采取与发达国家类似的行动。


But the recent prosperity of many of these countries has come from access to global capital.	但是大部分这些国家最近几年的繁荣得益于全球资本的流入。


A sudden stop to such flows is a severe blow and raises special challenges that cannot be solved by these countries alone.	现在这种资本流入的突然中断对于这些国家肯定是一个沉重打击，并且使它们面临着一个单靠自己无法解决的特殊挑战。


So the advanced countries must be ready to provide the required financing, and to do so on an unprecedented scale.	因此发达国家必须准备向它们提供所需要的融资，并且这种资金的提供应该达到前所未有的规模。


The alternative is the prospect of widespread debt default, banking controls, and protectionism – an outcome that would set back these countries, and the global economy as a whole, for years to come.	因为如果我们不这样做，那我们很可能将面临范围广泛的拖欠债务、银行控制以及保护主义，这样的结果可能会在未来数年造成这些国家以及全球经济的衰退。


The IMF has the wherewithal to commit up to $250 billion.	国际货币基金组织拥有必要的资金可以投入最高2500亿美元的资金。


We have set in motion the internal procedures and facilities that will allow us to provide resources quickly, with conditions limited to the core crisis-policy response at hand.	我们已经启动内部程序和工具以便我们能迅速地提供资金，只要其条件满足我们核心危机政策响应计划的规定。


In addition, the Fund is working on a new liquidity line to provide resources immediately to strongly performing emerging markets with sound policies and fundamentals.	此外，基金组织正在制定新的流动资金供应，以便向拥有完善的政策和良好基本面、经济增长强劲的新兴市场迅速提供资金。


This should give confidence to investors.	这些能给投资者注入信心。


But, given the scale of capital flows, I am also urging the governments and central banks of the advanced countries to provide parallel financing to the IMF’s crisis-response programs.	但是考虑到资本流动的规模，我还正在敦促发达国家的政府和中央银行向国际货币基金组织的危机响应计划提供我们所需要的资金。


I also am convinced of the need to find ways to bring into play the resources of countries with large reserves.	同时我认为有必要寻找途径让那些拥有庞大外汇储备的国家也参与进来。


The Fund will play its part, but all these actions are needed to reinforce the credibility of the coordinated global response to the crisis.	基金组织将发挥它应有的作用，但是我们还需要采取所有这些行动以提高全球共同应对危机的可信度。


We must also think ahead – especially in regard to low-income countries in Africa.	同时我们还必须做到未雨绸缪，尤其是对于非洲的低收入国家。


Because of their limited participation in international financial markets, these countries have, so far, been somewhat shielded from the storm.	因为它们对于国际金融市场的参与非常有限，因此迄今为止这些国家在某种程度上并未受到这场风暴的影响。


But it is an uneasy calm that probably will not last.	但是这种平静并不让人感到安心，并且可能不会延续下去。


Many low-income countries will suffer from the decline in commodity prices.	许多低收入国家将遭受物价下跌的影响。


Others, including those that were becoming the new frontier in emerging markets, may see their access to foreign capital dry up.	其他一些国家，包括���些成为新兴市场新的前沿的国家，可能看到流向它们的外国资本出现干涸。


They, too, will need help from the international community.	它们同样需要国际社会的帮助。


Lending by the IMF and global development banks, and the maintenance of donor aid at current levels, will be essential if we are to avoid new human tragedies.	国际货币基金组织和国际开发银行的借款以及将援助资金保持在目前的水平对于我们是否能防止一场新的人类悲剧的发生至关重要。


The dynamics of fear are potentially catastrophic, but these dynamics can be broken.	恐惧的力量可能是灾难性的，但是它们是可以打破的。


Whatever the problems in the financial system, the massive improvements over the years in technology, productivity, and social progress – the real fundamentals – are a genuine testament to the power of globalization as a force for good.	不管金融体系存在什么问题，近些年来真正的基本面、也就是在科技、生产以及社会进步上取得的巨大发展是对全球化作为一种善的力量的真正实证。


It may be too late to avoid a recession in the advanced countries and a slowdown in emerging and low-income countries. But it is not too late to avoid a global depression.	也许现在阻止发达国家的经济衰退以及新兴和低收入国家的增长放缓为时已晚，但是阻止一场全球性的衰退为时并不晚。


Confronting the Populists	面对民粹主义者


SAINT-MARTIN-LAGUÉPIE – Here’s a confession: I don’t lie in bed at night missing mainstream politics.	圣马尔坦拉居埃皮耶—我坦白：我不会晚上躺在床上想念主流政治。


Instead, I am spending a week at my house in southwest France, walking around the countryside.	相反，我正在我位于法国西南部的房子里度过一周，徜徉于乡间。


The early autumn sun is warm on my back, the trees are starting to change color, and local farmers are preparing for this year’s grape harvest.	夏末的阳光暖洋洋地照在我的背上，树叶正在泛黄，本地农民正准备收获今年的葡萄。


What’s not to like?	还有什么令人不喜欢的呢？


Back in the political world, the answer is quite a lot.	回到政治世界，答案是太多了。


On the left and right – few mainstream leaders are having such a good year.	放眼左翼和右翼，几乎没有一位主流领导人正在享受如此美好的一年。


In fact, one must search for any notable achievements.	事实上，想找到值得关注的成就很难。


In France, President François Hollande looks like damaged goods as he prepares for next spring’s election.	在法国，总统奥朗德正在准备明年春天的大选，他看起来就像是一件损坏了的商品。


The French economy benefits from high productivity potential and a well-educated work force, but trade unionists and other members of Hollande’s Socialist Party are blocking measures that would restore strong growth.	法国经济得益于高生产率潜力和高教育程度的劳动力大军，但工会派和其他奥朗德的社会党党员正在阻挠重塑强劲增长的措施。


Meanwhile, former President Nicolas Sarkozy and former Prime Minister Alain Juppé are vying for control of the center-right opposition in order to challenge Hollande and head off Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front.	与此同时，前总统萨科齐和前总理朱佩正在争夺对中右翼反对派的控制以挑战奥朗德和阻挡极右翼的国民阵线的马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）。


Opinion polls indicate that there will be a second-round run-off between Le Pen and either Sarkozy or Juppé, which means that those on the left will have to choose a conventional right-wing candidate if they want to beat Le Pen.	民调显示，勒庞和萨科齐或朱佩之间都将会有第二轮竞争，这意味着左翼要想打败勒庞就必须选择一位传统右翼候选人。


She is unlikely to win; but, then again, that’s what most people said about the United Kingdom’s vote in June to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s campaign in the United States for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.	她不太可能胜出； 但是，6月份英国举行脱欧公投时人们也这么说，唐纳德·特朗普开始竞争美国共和党总统提名人时人们也这么说。


In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel – Europe’s foremost politician – has attracted voters’ ire, owing to her principled policy to welcome refugees.	在德国，欧洲最重要的政治家——默克尔激起了选民的愤怒，原因是她坚定地欢迎难民的政策。


The opposition Left Party is barely credible as an electoral force; but the far-right Alternative for Germany has been exploiting anti-immigrant sentiments and chipping away at the support of the government parties (Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats) in subnational elections, including in Merkel’s home state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania.	反对党左翼党（Left Party）难以成为可信的选举力量； 但极右翼的德国另类党（Alternative for Germany）一直在利用反移民情绪并在州选举中蚕食执政党（默克尔的基督教民主党以及中左翼的社会民主党）地盘，包括默克尔的家乡梅克伦堡-西波美拉尼亚州。


In Italy, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is flailing as he tries to kick a flatlining economy into gear.	在意大利，总理伦齐让经济起死回生的尝试已经失败。


The center-right opposition, a shifting firmament led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, is lost in the political wilderness, and his main opponents are now the populist Five Star Movement and regional politicians who offer little more than disdain for the national political establishment.	由前总理贝卢斯科尼领导的中右翼反对派大势已去，他的主要对手现在是民粹主义的五星运动（Five Star Movement）以及只有抨击国家政治建制“一招鲜”的地区政客。


In Spain, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the center-right People’s Party is struggling to form a government after the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party refused to support him, while Catalan separatists continue to beat the drum for independence.	在西班牙，中右翼的人民党的首相拉霍伊正因为反对党西班牙社会工人党拒绝支持他而难以组建政府，与此同时，加泰罗尼亚分裂主义者仍在敲响独立的战鼓。


In the UK, where older, alienated working- and middle-class voters (mainly in England) pushed through Brexit, the new prime minister, Theresa May, is fighting to hold her party together.	在英国，让英国投票退出欧盟的主要是年龄较长、有疏离感的工作阶级和中产阶级选民。 新首相梅正在努力保持党内团结。


Some cabinet members are pushing for a complete break from Europe – a so-called hard Brexit – while others press more sensibly for a middle-ground approach to maintain trade with the biggest market for British goods and services.	一些内阁成员要求完全与欧洲脱离——即所谓的硬脱欧——也有一些人提出更加明智的中间道路，意欲保持英国商品和服务的最大市场。


As these examples indicate, populists are resurgent across Europe – even in unlikely places like Sweden and the Netherlands.	这些例子表明，民粹主义正在全欧洲蓬勃发展——即使瑞典和荷兰这样的不可能之地也是如此。


Now that Trump would feel quite at home almost anywhere on the continent, it is imperative to respond to the pan-Western anti-establishment rage that he represents.	眼下，特朗普在欧洲将有一种宾至如归的感觉，应对他所代表的泛欧洲反建制愤怒是当务之急。


To be sure, slow economic growth in the years since the 2008 global financial crisis has sapped voters’ enthusiasm for traditional parties fighting over the middle ground.	诚然，2008年全球金融危机以来多年的经济低增长降低了选民对争夺中间派的传统政党的热情。


Governing parties on the left and the right have generally agreed on issues such as international cooperation, free trade, public spending, and tax cuts.	左翼和右翼执政党在国际合作、自由贸易、公共支出和减税等问题上意见大体相同。


While Ronald Reagan, today’s Republican patron saint, was a big-government spender, Democrat Bill Clinton cut welfare entitlements and balanced the budget.	如今被视为共和党守护神的罗纳德·里根就是一位政府支出派，而比尔·克林顿削减福利支出，让预算平衡。


Today’s populists, however, demand simple – indeed, simplistic – answers outside the scope of mainstream consensus.	但是，今天的民粹主义者要求的是主流共识范围之外的简单甚至一根筋的答案。


They blame globalization for damaging their livelihoods and economic prospects, and they seek an enemy – some “other” – whom they can vilify for the uncertainty and downward mobility they have experienced.	他们指责全球化伤害了他们的生计和经济前景，并寻找敌人——某种“他者”——来为不确定性和他们所遭遇的向下流动“背锅”。


The populist worldview admits no shades of gray.	民粹主义的世界观不承认灰色地带。


There can be no middle way; on the contrary, searching for consensus or accommodation is tantamount to treachery.	没有中间道路； 相反，追求共识或妥协就是背叛。


Through bluster and demagogy, populist politicians are turning back the clock to a pre-empirical world, in which superstition and obscurantism were apparently better for everyone.	通过咆哮和煽动，民粹主义政客正在让世界倒退回前帝国主义时代，让迷信和蒙昧成为更好的选择。


Of course, populists’ halcyon past is a dreamland.	当然，民粹主义者的美好过去只是黄粱一梦。


But how do we deal with the reality that so many voters prefer fiction to fact?	但我们如何应对如此多的选民宁可相信虚幻也不愿面对事实的现实？


We certainly should not give up on democracy, or side with those in the West who, like Trump, admire and seek to emulate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demi-tyrant vision.	我们显然不应该放弃民主，或站在和特朗普一样敬仰并试图模仿俄罗斯总统普京的准暴君模式的西方人这一边。


Populists must be confronted head-on.	必须对民粹主义者针锋相对。


Their shoddy arguments must be rebuked point by point, and their fugues of outrage must be met with calm, rational deliberation.	他们的拙劣观点必须逐条驳斥，他们的愤怒之指应该用冷静、理性的思考应对。


It is no less important to address the causes of economic alienation, which means, for starters, providing better public services for disadvantaged communities, and investing in education, technology, and high-wage, high-skill jobs.	同样重要的是解决经济疏离的根源，这意味着首先要为弱势社区提供更好的公共服务，并投资于教育、技术和高薪高技能岗位。


If we run away from populists, or try to copy their tactics and arguments, we will further undermine the social contract underpinning Western democracies.	如果我们逃避民粹主义，或对他们的策略和观点照单全收，就会进一步破坏作为西方民主基础的社会契约。


Mainstream political leaders face a challenging road ahead.	主流政治领袖面临着雄关漫道。


They will need to adopt a fighting spirit and signal confidence in their cause, rather than succumbing to complacency or resigning themselves to a long-drawn-out retreat.	他们需要具备战斗精神，并表现出勇气，而不是流于自满或认命于长期败退。


This is a battle that must be won.	这是一场不能失败的战争。


Confused by the Veil	面纱的困惑


On July 23 millions of Turks will wake up into a new, post-elections Turkey.	7月23日，数以百万计的土耳其人醒来时将会迎来一个选举后的新土耳其。


What will happen is hard to foresee.	现在很难预料结果。


Turkish politics is full of surprises that only foreigners find surprising .	土耳其的政治充满变数，只有外国人才会感觉惊讶。


Today, and this seems to surprise most people outside Turkey, it is women, not men, who are at the heart of political debate.	如今，让大多数土耳其以外的人感到惊讶的是，不是土耳其男子、而是土耳其的妇女处于政治辩论的中心。


Indeed, in these elections the number of women candidates from all parties has visibly increased and so has female political overall activism.	确实，在这些选举中，来自各个政党的妇女候选人数量明显增加，而整体的女性政治活动也是如此。


This election is taking place because when the AKP party, the conservative party now in power, designated Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as its candidate for president, the country’s secular elite cringed.	举行这一选举的原因是由于目前当政的正义和发展党指定外交部长居尔为其总统候选人之时，该国的世俗势力大为不快。


Gul was not the issue; the issue was his wife.	居尔本人不是问题； 问题是他的妻子。


Had Gul been chosen as president, Turkey would have had its first headscarf wearing First Lady.	如果居尔被选举为总统，那么，土耳其将会产生第一个佩戴头巾的第一夫人。


Gul’s wife’s headscarf was interpreted as the symbol of darker changes to come.	居尔妻子的头巾被解释成为即将来到的黑暗改变的象征。


If the First Lady wears a headscarf, maintained the secular-minded elite, the whole secular system could be undermined.	世俗派的精英们认为，如果第一夫人佩戴头巾，那么，整个世俗体制就将遭到破坏。


What followed was unprecedented political turbulence, including mass demonstrations on a scale never seen before.	随后发生的是前所未有的政治动荡，包括从未有过的大规模示威活动。


There was feverish talk of a possible military takeover, and the army again proved itself to be a seminal political actor.	人们纷纷议论军队可能接管政权，而军队再一次证明是具有生命力的政治角色。


Through all this, Turkish women were at the forefront.	在所有这些中，土耳其的妇女处在前沿。


In particular, Turkey’s Westernized, modernized, secular women seemed determined to show their opposition to the existence of “the other” Turkish woman.	特别是，土耳其西方化、现代化而又世俗的妇女看起来决心表明她们反对存在“另一种”土耳其妇女。


Gender issues have always been vital in the Turkish nation-state.	性别问题在土耳其民族国家中一直非常重要。


Kemalism (the beliefs associated with the founder of modern Turkey, Musfafa Kemal Atutűrk) is unique among all Muslim reform movements in that it transformed not only the public sphere, but also the private sphere – the domain of mothers, wives, sisters, daughters.	现代土耳其奠基人凯末尔的基马尔主义由于不仅转变了公共领域，而且也转变了私人领域，也就是母亲、妻子、姐妹以及女儿的领域，因此在所有的穆斯林改革运动中独树一帜。


In the 1920’s and 1930’s – the years of Atutűrk’s rule -- the “new Turkish women” became the icon of the modern, secular regime.	在二十世纪二十年代和三十年代凯末尔统治时期，所谓“土耳其新妇女”成为了现代和世俗政权的象征。


The difference between what the French call laicité and secularism is more than a linguistic nuance for Turkey, which adopted its Kemalist system not long after France entrenched its secular republic.	法国人所称的政教分离和世俗主义的区别对于土耳其而言要超过语言上的微妙不同。 在法国巩固了世俗共和国之后不久，土耳其也采纳了基马尔体制。


Religious symbols and references have to a large extent been removed from the public sphere here, and religion is thought to be a private matter.	宗教象征和引述大多数被从公共领域清除，而宗教被认为是一个私人的事情。


Many Turks who go to the US for the first time are puzzled, indeed, by its religiosity .	许多第一次访问美国的土耳其人被它的宗教影响所困惑不解。


It comes as a surprise to see religious symbols and statements at the entrance of public buildings, on money, inside the courtroom.	看到宗教象征以及语录出现在公共建筑和钱币上以及法庭里确实令人惊讶。


But in Turkey the headscarf is not seen as a trivial symbol.	但是在土耳其，头巾并不被认为是一个可有可无的象征。


Eighty years after the republic’s founding the trouble with headscarved women is that they do not fit into the picture of the ideal modern Turkish woman.	共和国建国八十年来，佩戴头巾的妇女的问题是她们不属于理想的现代土耳其妇女的形象。


At the first glance there seems to be a huge mental, cultural and political gap dividing Turkey’s women.	乍一看，土耳其妇女之间存在有巨大的心理、文化以及政治鸿沟。


Yet if we look closer this gap becomes illusory.	但是，如果仔细观察，我们就会发现这一鸿沟就变得虚幻。


In everyday life the two types of Turkish women are more mixed than they are usually assumed to be.	在日常生活中，这两种土耳其妇女要比想象的更为交汇融合在一起。


It is not uncommon for one sister to wear a headscarf while another does not, or a mother to wear a headscarf while her daughters do not.	姐妹中的一个人戴着头巾而另一个不戴，或者母亲戴着头巾而她的女儿们不戴。 这种景象并不罕见。


Sometimes among two best friends, one is covered and one is not.	有时候两个最好的朋友一个戴着头巾而另一个不戴。


Any stroll along a crowded Istanbul street will show covered and uncovered women effortlessly -- almost naturally -- mixing.	随便沿着伊斯坦布尔熙熙攘攘的街道散步都会发现戴着头巾和不戴头巾的妇女毫不费力、几乎是自然地相互交融在一起。


Why then can’t a similar sisterhood be achieved in the realm of politics?	那么，为什么在政治领域就不能实现类似的姐妹情义呢？


A recent opinion poll shows that around 60% of women in Turkey cover their heads outside their homes.	最近一次民意调查表明，土耳其大约60%的妇女出门在外的时候裹住头部。


But does this mean 60% wear the veil?	但这是不是说60%戴着面纱呢？


Does it mean that they all support Islamic fundamentalism?	这是不是意味着她们所有的人都支持伊斯兰原教旨主义呢？


The answer to both questions is negative.	这两个问题的回答都是否定的。


As a novelist, when writing in Turkish I can encounter more than eight different words to stand for the headscarf. Yemeni, türban, eşarp, çarşaf,… Each is different.	作为一个小说家，我在用土耳其语写作的时候会遇到八个不同表示头巾的词汇，各个都不相同。


Different women wear the headscarf for different reasons.	不同的妇女出于不同的原因佩戴头巾。


Some wear it out of habit or for traditional reasons rather than religious ones.	某些人出于习惯或者传统原因而非宗教理由。


For others the motivation is political.	对于其他人来说则出于政治动机。


Not all women wear a headscarf because of religious conservatism. And not all headscarved women are “ignorant” or “repressed.”	并非所有的妇女都是出于宗教保守主义而佩戴头巾，而并非所有佩戴头巾的妇女都是“无知”或者“受到压迫”。


But this complexity is lost due to the concept of “the veil.”	但是，这一复杂性由于“面纱”的概念而不复存在。


If one makes no distinctions and disregards nuances one will end up believing that 60% Turkish women wear the veil.	如果人们不加以区分，而且不考虑细微的差别，就会相信60%的土耳其妇女佩戴面纱。


The same poll, however, revealed that the percent of women who cover their heads fully and for more political than traditional reasons is no more than 11%.	但是，同一调查显示，更多地出于政治而非传统原因完全裹住头部的妇女的比例只有不到11%。


Paying attention to nuances makes a huge difference– the difference between saying that 60% women wear the veil and saying that 11% do.	注意细微差别就会有很大的不同。 不同就是说60%的妇女佩戴面纱以及说11%的妇女佩戴面纱。


This complexity is lost not only on Western observers but also on Turkey’s elite.	不仅西方观察家们，而且连土耳其的精英们也不晓得这一复杂性。


Because ideological clashes here seem to center around women’s bodies and clothes perhaps it is time we stopped asking “how should an ideal Turkish woman look?” and start asking “should there be an ideal woman Turkish woman at all?”	由于这里意识形态的冲突看起来集中在妇女的身体和服装，也许现在应该停止问“一个理想的土耳其妇女应该是什么样子？ ”，而是开始问“是不是真的就应该有一种理想的土耳其妇女呢？


After all, pluralism is not only a political principle, it is one a free society applies to individuals – male and female – as well.	”毕竟，多元主义并不只是一个政治原则，而且这也是一个自由社会适用到个人上的原则，而不管是男子还是妇女。


We in Turkey have been tackling the question of whether Islam can coexist with Western democracy for more than 150 years.	我们土耳其思考伊斯兰是否可以和西方民主共存的问题已经有150多年了。


After150 years of Westernization and modernization, the answer we have come up with is a definite “yes.”	经过150年的西方化和现代化，我们给出的回答是斩钉截铁的“是”。


Turkey is a complicated country, with multiple dilemmas.	土耳其是一个复杂的国家，具有多种难题。


Its women both heal and intensify its tensions.	土耳其的妇女不仅弥合、也在加剧其紧张局面。


Congo’s Infinite War	刚果无休止的战争


HARARE – Some time ago, the head of the United Nations refugee agency, Antonio Guterres, said of the Democratic Republic of Congo: “Nobody in the outside world feels threatened, and so the international community is not really paying attention.”	哈拉雷－一段时间以前，联合国难民机构首脑安东尼奥·古特雷斯（Antonio Guterres）提及到 刚果民主共和国时说：“因为外部世界没有人感觉受到了威胁，所以国际社会并没有真正对刚果问题加以注意。 ”


Not anymore: currently, Congo’s eastern province of North Kivu is in the headlines almost every day.	现在情形已经发生了变化：当前，刚果的东部省份北基伍省（North Kivu）几乎天天都上头条新闻了。


Last August, fighting to the north of the provincial capital Goma flared up again, provoking a major humanitarian crisis that has no end in sight.	去年八月，北基伍省的省会城市戈马（Goma）北部的战争再度燃起，引起了一个看不到结局的人道主义危机。


Like the eight-year civil war (in what was then known as Zaire) that nominally ended in 2002, the current fighting involves many different local groups: not only the Congolese government forces, which oppose the insurgents loyal to the Tutsi General Laurent Nkunda, but also the Rwandan Hutu rebels who were responsible for the genocide in Rwanda in the 1990’s and a jungle force known as the “Mai-Mai” militias.	和在2002年名义上结束的八年内战（当时刚果仍然叫扎伊尔）一样，当前的战争涉及许多不同的当地群体：不仅有反对忠于图西族劳伦·坤达（Laurent Nkunda）将军的武装分子的刚果政府军队，而且还有对20世纪90年代的卢旺达种族屠杀负有责任的卢旺达胡图族叛军，以及以“马伊－马伊”民兵知名的丛林军队。


“It is a basket of crabs,” one Congolese friend told me.	“局面一片混乱，”一位刚果朋友告诉我。


As always, the main victims are civilians caught in the crossfire.	跟往常一样，战争主要的受害者是困在战火中的平民。


The renewed fighting, coming eight months after a promising peace initiative known as the “Goma Agreement,” means more civilian deaths and little chance of normality returning to the eastern part of Congo.	新的战争，在名为“戈马协定”（Goma Agreement）的充满希望的和平倡议之后的八个月内，再次开始，这意味着更多的平民死亡，以及刚果东部恢复正常状态的希望更加渺茫。


Yet, even at times when fighting is less intense Congo suffers from the indirect effects of the war.	然而，即使在战争不那么激烈的时候，刚果也经受着战争间接影响的荼毒。


A mortality survey conducted by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and released earlier this year demonstrates that this conflict is the world’s most deadly crisis since World War II: an estimated 5.4 million people have died as a consequence of the war and its lingering effects in the last decade.	由国际救援委员会(IRC)进行并于今年早些时候发布的一份死亡率调查显示，这一冲突是第二次世界大战以来世界上最致命的危机：在过去十年中，大约有540万人因为战争及其延迟效应死亡。


Today, a quarter of a million people are on the run, almost half of them on territory under rebel control and with almost no access to aid.	今天，有25万人流离失所，其中几乎有一半的人处在叛乱分子控制的区域，没有获取救助的任何途径。


They need food and shelter, clean water and latrines, medical care, and education.	这些人需要食物和住所，干净的饮用水以及厕所，医疗护理和教育。


Women and girls need protection from sexual violence, which flares up when families are forcibly displaced.	他们中的妇女和女孩也需要保护，以免于性暴力的侵害——当家人 被迫转移时，它会突然发生。


It may sound strange, but from the point of view of a humanitarian relief agency, it is not important on whose territory civilians in need are, as long as there is access to them.	这可能听起来很奇怪，但是从一个人道主义救援机构的观点来看，只要有接近他们的途径，需要帮助的平民处在谁的领土上并不重要。


Aid workers who have been in the country for a dozen years, especially from groups like my own IRC, must work with all parties to the conflict because civilians in need are everywhere.	那些在刚果已经待了几年的救援人员，特别是像我所在的国际救援委员会这样的团体，必须和冲突各方合作，因为到处都是需要帮助的平民。


But aid agencies need access.	但是，救援机构需要进行救援的途径。


The UN peacekeeping force in Congo, MONUC, has a mandate from the Security Council for full intervention in order to provide protection to the civilian population.	为了向平民人口提供保护，联合国维持和平部队刚果民主共和国特派团拥有联合国安理会进行完全干预的特别授权。


So when aid workers are stopped at gunpoint and cannot talk their way through, humanitarian agencies naturally turn to MONUC to guarantee access.	所以，当武装分子用枪口阻止救援人员救援，而且救援人员不能通过谈话使事情取得进展的时候，人道主义机构自然会求助于联合国维持和平部队刚果民主共和国特派团，要求保证其救援通道。


Humanitarian workers are not military strategists, so they cannot judge what kind and what size of deployment of peacekeepers is adequate.	人道主义工作者不是军事战略家，所以他们无法判断部署什么样的和多少维和人员是适当的。


But the aid agencies that work on the ground have first-hand experience of the impact of peacekeepers’ presence, and we have the authority to say that protection of aid workers can be dangerously inadequate.	但是，在当地工作的救援机构具有维和人员在场带来的影响的一手经验，并且我们可以有权说，对救援人员的保护有时候是非常不够，以至于他们的人身安全处在危险之中。


Indeed, at the height of the fighting for control of the northern town of Rutshuru last October, the IRC teams that were stationed there decided to evacuate temporarily because the risk was simply too great.	事实上，在去年十月份争夺北部城镇鲁丘鲁（Rutshuru）控制权的战争最激烈的时候，驻扎在那里的国际救援委员会团队决定暂时撤出，因为风险实在是太大了。


Together with other aid agencies, IRC staff formed a convoy and MONUC offered armed vehicles to protect it.	国际救援委员会的工作人员和其他救援机构一起组成了一个卫队，联合国维持和平部队刚果民主共和国特派团提供了武装交通工具来保护这个卫队。


But when armed men stopped the convoy on the road, the Uruguayan peacekeepers from MONUC simply turned around and vanished, leaving the aid workers to their fate.	但是，当武装分子在路上拦住卫队的时候，联合国维持和平部队刚果民主共和国特派团中的乌拉圭维和人员就调转方向消失了，让救援人员听天由命。


What followed were many hours of harassment, humiliation, threats with live hand grenades, shots fired at the feet of one of our colleagues, and looting and ransacking of the IRC premises.	接下来就是武装分子对救援人员长达数小时的折磨，羞辱，用点燃的手榴弹进行的威胁，对着我们一个同事的脚的开枪射击，以及对国际救援委员会所在地的抢劫和掠夺。


Finally, another group of MONUC peacekeepers – this time from India – came to the rescue and helped evacuate the aid workers on helicopters.	最后，来自联合国维持和平部队刚果民主共和国特派团维和人员中的另一个团体——来自印度的维和人员——来进行了营救，并用直升机帮助救援人员撤出。


Protecting the humanitarian effort now underway is essential to the sheer physical survival of the Congolese displaced in North Kivu, but the only lasting solution is a ceasefire followed by a peace treaty, possibly along the lines of the “Goma agreement.”	保护现在正在进行中的人道主义努力，对北基伍省（North Kivu）流离失所的刚果人纯粹的肉体存活下去至关重要，但是，唯一持久的解决办法是可能和“戈马协定”路线一致的和平协定后的停火。


Paradoxically, the current fighting and the masses of displaced persons that it produced have helped to draw attention to the crisis.	荒谬的是，当前的战斗和其导致的大量难民有助于引起人们对危机的注意。


This moment must be seized not only to beef up MONUC, but, more importantly, to use all existing leverage with the combatants and the governments that back them to get all the parties to return to the negotiating table.	人们必须抓住这个机会，不但用它来作为加强联合国维持和平部队刚果民主共和国特派团的契机，而且，更重要的是，利用现存的可以支持武装分子和政府让冲突各方回到谈判桌上的一切途径。


The televised tragedy, and the shortcomings that can be observed close up, can and must be stopped, lest – as often happens with Congo – the crisis disappears from the front pages, while the killing continues unseen.	电视上播放的战争造成的灾难，以及可以���特写镜头观察到残缺，可以并且也必须加以阻止，以免——像在刚果经常发生的那样——危机从新闻报道头版消失了，但是杀戮却以世人看不见的方式在继续。


The New Health-Care Continuum	新医疗连续统


DAVOS – The health-care industry has changed dramatically over the past few decades.	达沃斯—过去几年中，医疗行业经历了重大变化。


Research and development have given us astonishing new treatments, powerful diagnostics, and a rapidly growing wealth of knowledge.	研究和开发给我们带来了全新的治疗手段、强大的诊断学和快速增长的卫生知识。


Medical specializations and providers have proliferated.	医学专业化和供应商蓬勃发展。


Governments and insurers have become powerful players.	政府和保险商成为强大的行动方。


And the patient has become a vocal and proactive consumer, ready to search for better options, even if that means going abroad.	而患者也成为话语权强大、积极主动的消费者，时刻准备着寻找更优选项，即使需要出国才能实现。


But, even as health care has become more effective, it has also become more complex and costly.	但是，尽管医疗变得更加高效，但也变得更加复杂和昂贵。


Growing and aging populations are putting increased pressure on health-care systems that are already buckling under the burden of chronic diseases like cancer and diabetes.	医疗体系已难以承受癌症和糖尿病等慢性疾病的重负，而不断增加和老化的人口又进一步增加了压力。


The Institute of Medicine estimates that in the United States alone, some $750 billion a year – about 30% of total health-care spending – is “wasted on unnecessary services, excessive administrative costs, fraud, and other problems.”	据医学研究所（Institute of Medicine）估计，光是在美国，每年就有7,500亿美元——约占医疗总支出的30%——被“浪费在不必要的服务、过高的行政成本、欺诈和其他问题上。


If we are to ensure that health care remains affordable and widely available for future generations, we need to rethink radically how we provide and manage it.	”如果我们要确保医疗保持平价、我们的子孙后代仍能“有医无类”，我们就需要深刻反思如何提供和管理医疗。


Crucially, health care needs to become connected.	一个关键问题是医疗需要具有连通性。


It should become effortless for medical professionals to share relevant data with colleagues around the world.	全球医疗专业人士之间应该能够轻松地共享相关数据。


Medical devices and systems in hospitals should be able to combine multiple sources of information.	医疗设备和医院系统应该能够兼容各种信息源。


A new generation of consumer technology, such as wearable health sensors, could automatically alert doctors to potential medical problems before they become acute episodes.	新一代消费者技术，如可穿戴健康传感器，可以自动向医生预警医疗问题而不必等到急性发作。


Though such innovations must confront challenges like system interoperability and the need to protect patients’ privacy, the Internet’s integration into the travel and banking industries shows what is possible.	尽管这一创新必须解决系统互通性和患者隐私保护等挑战，但互联网融入旅游和银行业的经验表明这是可行的。


Indeed, connected health care is already becoming a reality.	事实上，互联医疗正在成为现实。


Philips, for example, has developed a technology that allows doctors to share medical data from a prostate cancer biopsy with colleagues around the world.	比如，飞繽fb浦公司开发了一项技术，可以让全世界医生之间共享前列腺癌活体切片的医疗数据。


In the past, the biopsy could be shared only physically, which made diagnosing the exact type of prostate cancer difficult.	在过去，活体切片只能以实体形式共享，这导致确诊前列腺癌的类型变得十分困难。


As a result, surgeons and patients may have opted for invasive surgery just to be safe.	结果，外科医生和患者可能选择侵入性外科手术以求安全。


Now, teams of doctors worldwide have an additional tool, enabling them to work together toward more accurate diagnoses and enhanced treatment plans for individual patients.	如今，全球医生团队有了新工具，让他们能够合作进行更准确的诊断和强化对个体患者的医疗计划。


The entire patient experience will be transformed, with better prevention, quicker diagnoses, shorter hospital stays, and longer independent living becoming the norm.	随着更好的预防、更快的诊断、更短的住院时间、更长的独立生活期成为“标配”，患者全过程体验也会被改变。


If patients return to the hospital, they will bring useful data, captured by wearable devices, about the evolution of their vital signs.	���果患者回到医院，他们将带来有用的数据，这些数据由可穿戴设备捕获，标明生命信号的演变。


They can continue to track themselves as their treatments progress, and their data can be integrated with medical records to provide a long-term view of their health, rather than an episodic snapshot of the day they visit a doctor.	他们可以随着治疗的进展而继续跟踪检查资金，他们的数据可以纳入医疗记录，提供对他们健康状况的长期检视，而不是在就医当日进行插入式拍片。


With access to professional coaching and support around the clock, patients will feel more empowered to manage their own physical wellbeing.	患者可以获得全天候专业指导和支持，因此能够更有能力管理自身身体状况。


Connected health care can also provide access to life-saving treatment to more people, particularly in developing countries and rural areas.	互联医疗还可以让更多人获得救命治疗，特别是发展中国家和农村地区人口。


In Indonesia, which has one of the world’s highest infant mortality rates, midwives in the rural area of Medan collect medical data from pregnant women using a mobile app.	印度尼西亚是全世界婴儿死亡率最高的国家之一，该国棉兰（Medan）农村地区的助产士使用移动应用收集孕妇的医学数据。


The data are analyzed by obstetricians and gynecologists elsewhere, allowing women at high risk of illness to be identified and treated early.	这些数据由其他地区的妇科和产科医生分析，使高患病风险的妇女及早获得诊断和治疗。


In Uganda, midwives in village health centers send compressed ultrasound scans to remote specialists, nearly doubling the number of newborns that can be delivered by a skilled health worker.	在乌干达，村级医疗中心的助产士将压缩超声波扫描数据传送给遥远的专家，使可以获得高技能医护人员服务的新生儿数量接近翻番。


More broadly, connected health technology will cause professional health care and consumer markets to converge.	更广泛地说，互联医疗技术可以让专业医疗和消费者市场趋同。


This will create a continuum that starts with a focus on healthy living and prevention, empowers consumers to take control of their own health, and enables countries to improve their citizens’ overall wellbeing.	这将形成一个连续统，从强调健康生活和预防开始，让消费者能够控制自身健康、国家能够改善公民总体福祉。


The continuum will then move on to definitive diagnostics and minimally invasive treatments, optimized for quality and cost, and, finally, to recovery and home care, shifting medical care as soon as possible to more comfortable and cost-effective non-hospital settings.	接着，这一连续统将带来精确诊断和最小化入侵性治疗，优化质量和成本。 最后，这一连续统包括恢复和家庭护理，尽快改变医疗护理，使其向更舒适、更具性价比的院外实施转变。


Governments, insurers, medical professionals, patients, and caregivers need to work together to ensure that the transition to this health continuum is well managed, so that access can be expanded, outcomes can be improved, and productivity can be enhanced.	政府、保险商、医学专业人士、患者和护理人员需要齐心协力确保向这一健康连续统的转变得到良好管理，扩大其接触范围，改善其结果，强化其生产率。


Together, we have the opportunity to improve the lives of billions of people, create healthier societies, save costs, and boost economic growth.	团结一致的我们有机会改善数十亿人的生活，创造更健康的社会，节约成本，提振经济增长。


Conquering Europe’s Debt Mountain	征服欧洲的债务高峰


BERLIN – The International Monetary Fund estimates that the crisis-induced net cost of financial-sector support provided by G-20 countries in 2009 amounted to 1.7% of GDP ($905 billion), while discretionary fiscal stimulus amounted to 2% of GDP in both 2009 and 2010.	发自柏林——据世界贸易基金组织估算，2009年20国集团（G20）各成员国在危机中为支持金融部门而付出的净成本占到了各国GDP总量的1. 7%（9050亿美元），而任意制定的财政刺激计划金额则在2009年和2010年达到了GDP总量的2%。


All the eurozone countries, except Luxembourg and Finland, reported fiscal deficits in excess of 3% of GDP in 2009, while Greece, Spain, and Ireland ran deficits of more than 10%.	除芬兰和卢森堡外，所有欧元区国家都通报本国财政赤字超过了GDP总量的3% ，而希腊，西班牙和爱尔兰的赤字则超过10%。


Within a single year, eurozone governments’ general debt increased by almost 10 percentage points (78.7% of GDP in 2009, compared with 69.3% in 2008).	在仅仅一年内，欧元区国家政府的普通债务就上升了大约10%（从2008年的占GDP69. 3%上升到2009年的78.


As for Germany, the 2010 federal budget features a record-high deficit of well above €50 billion.	对德国来说，2010年的联邦预算总额上升到了创纪录的500亿欧元。


Public-sector debt will surpass €1.7 trillion, approaching 80% of GDP.	公共部门的债务数量将超过1. 7万亿欧元，约等于GDP的80%。


Interest payments, which consume more than 10% of Germany’s federal budget, will grow along with the mounting debt burden – and even faster if interest rates rise.	其中占联邦预算超过10%的利息支付额将随着债务的不断堆积而增加——如果利率升高的话，递增的速度还会更快。


Yet the financial crisis and the ensuing recession go only so far towards explaining these high levels of indebtedness.	虽然金融危机和紧接着的衰退为如此巨额的债务提供了借口。


The truth is that many European and G-20 countries have lived far beyond their means – including Germany, despite its reputation as a paragon of fiscal rectitude.	但事情的真相其实是许多欧盟和G20国家的支出都超过了自身收入——连一直在财政管理方面堪称表率的德国无法独善其身。


Even in good times, governments have for too long been spending more than they received.	即便是在好年景中，各国政府的支出也长期高于收入。


Perhaps worse, some also spent more than they could easily repay, given their economies’ declining long-term growth potential because of the aging of their populations.	更遭糕的是，有些国家花费的要比他们所能轻易偿还的还要多，因为其国内人口的老龄化已经导致了长期经济增长潜力的衰退。


Such profligacy has led to levels of debt that will become unsustainable if we do not act.	如果我们不立刻作出应对的话，这种挥霍的行为将导致不可持续的高债务水平。


This is why Germany decided in 2009 to enshrine strict fiscal rules in its constitution.	这也是德国为何决定在2009年将严格的财政规定写入宪法的原因。


The Schuldenbremse, or “debt brake,” requires the federal government to run a structural deficit of no more than 0.35% of GDP by 2016, while Germany’s Länder will be banned from running structural deficits at all as of 2020.	“债务刹车”(Schuldenbremse)要求联邦政府在2016年实现结构性赤字不超过GDP0. 35%的水平，而德国联邦州(Länder)则在2020年时禁止产生任何结构性赤字。


The current federal government will certainly abide by these rules, which implies reducing the structural deficit to approximately €10 billion by 2016 – a reduction of about €7 billion a year.	当前的联邦政府当然会遵守这些规定，其中包含在2016年将结构性赤字降到100亿欧元的水平——这相当于每年减少70亿欧元。


Welfare benefits account for more than half of Germany’s federal spending this year.	福利支出占了今年德国联邦政府支出的一大半。


So there is little choice but to cut welfare spending, at least moderately.	所以削减福利开支（至少是温和地）是无法避免的选择。


But this sort of fiscal consolidation can be achieved only if a majority perceives it as being socially equitable.	但这种财政巩固目标只有在公众认为它对整个社会都是公平合理的时候才能实现。


Recipients of social and corporate welfare alike, as well as civil servants, must share the sacrifice.	社会福利的受益者，公司福利以及公务员都要共同分担这一政策的成本。


Thus, German corporations will have to contribute to fiscal consolidation through reductions in subsidies and additional taxes on major energy companies, airlines, and financial institutions.	政府将减少对企业的补贴，并对某些主要能源公司，航空公司和金融机构增税，这是企业在财政巩固措施方面所做出的牺牲。


Similarly, civil servants must forego promised pay increases, and the government is looking for annual savings in the federal armed forces of up to €3 billion through structural reforms.	同样的，公务员将放弃提高工资，而政府则希望通过某些结构性改革在联邦武装力量中每年省下30亿欧元军费。


Germany’s binding fiscal rules set a positive example for other eurozone countries.	德国这种强制性的财政规定为其他欧元区国家做了榜样。


But all eurozone governments need to demonstrate their own commitment to fiscal consolidation in order to restore the confidence of markets – and of their own citizens.	所有的欧元区国家政府都需要用实际行动来实现财政巩固以便使市场——以及本国人民重拾信心。


Recent studies show that once a government’s debt burden reaches a threshold perceived to be unsustainable, more debt will only stunt, not stimulate, economic growth.	最近的研究显示，一旦政府的债务负担到达了一个某个不可持续的水平，更多的债务就只能阻碍而不是刺激经济的发展。


Greece’s debt crisis was a clear warning that European policymakers must not allow public debt to pile up indefinitely.	希腊债务危机已经向欧洲的政策制定者发出了明确警告：不能让债务无限堆积下去。


The EU was right to react decisively to ensure the euro’s stability by providing short-term assistance to Greece and establishing the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism.	而欧盟果断向希腊提供短期援助并建立欧洲金融稳定机制来保障欧元稳定的做法无疑是正确的。


But, while the EFSF is a necessary step towards restoring confidence, the Greek crisis has revealed structural weaknesses of the European Monetary Union’s fiscal-policy framework that cannot, and should not, be fixed by routinely throwing other countries’ money at the problem.	但即便这一稳定机制堪称恢复信心的必需步骤，希腊债务危机也暴露出了欧洲货币联盟财政政策框架的结构性弊端，而这一弊端不能，也不应用平时那种各成员国家不断砸钱的方式来消除。


Indeed, I consider the EFSF to be a stopgap measure while we remedy the fundamental shortcomings of the Stability and Growth Pact, whose fiscal rules lack both substantive and formal bite.	事实上，当我们尝试修补《稳定与增长公约》的根本性缺陷时，我认为欧洲货币稳定机制只是一个临时性措施，因为它的财政规定及缺乏实际和正式的影响力。


This is why we need a more effective crisis-prevention and crisis-resolution framework for the eurozone, one that strengthens the Pact’s preventive and corrective provisions.	这也是我们为何需要一个更有效的危机预防和解决框架的原因，这个框架要加强《稳定与增长公约》的预防和纠正性条款。


Sanctions for eurozone countries that seriously infringe EMU rules should take effect more quickly and with less political discretion, and also should be tougher.	对那些严重违反欧洲货币联盟规定的欧元区国家的制裁将更快展开，更少政治方面的犹豫，另外也要更严厉。


Germany and France have proposed stricter rules on borrowing and spending, backed by tough, semi-automatic sanctions for governments that do not comply.	德国和法国都提议对政府借款和支出实施更严厉的管理，一旦有政府违犯，就将受到严厉且半自动生效的制裁。


Countries that repeatedly ignore recommendations for reducing excessive deficits, and those that manipulate official statistics, should have their EU funds frozen and their voting rights suspended.	那些一再无视削减过量赤字建议或是捏造官方统计的政府，他们的欧盟基金都将被冻结，同时还将剥夺他们的投票权。


Monetary union was intended to be neither a panacea for eurozone members nor a get-rich scheme for financial speculators.	Monetary union was intended to be neither a panacea for eurozone members nor a get-rich货币联盟既不能是欧元区成员国包治百病的灵药，也不能成为金融投机者的发财宝地。


Nor was it meant to be a system of redistribution from richer to poorer countries via cheaper borrowing for governments by means of common Eurobonds or outright fiscal transfers.	它同时也不应该是一个通过普通欧元债券或财政直接输血的方式向各国政府提供更廉价借款从而实现富裕国家向贫穷国家转移支付的系统。


It won’t succeed if some countries persistently run deficits and weaken their competitiveness at the expense of the euro’s stability.	如果某些国家一直在赤字下运作并削弱自身竞争力，从而损害欧元的稳定的话，这个联盟就不会成功。


EMU was designed to encourage structural reforms.	欧洲货币联盟的成立目的是促进结构性改革。


Profligate members were supposed to be forced by the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as by their peers, to live within their means and thus strengthen their competiveness.	那些肆意挥霍的成员国将在《稳定与增长公约》以及其他国家的压力下实现收支平衡并随之提升自身的竞争力。


Instead, Germany’s former social-democratic government weakened the pact when doing so was politically convenient, while less competitive eurozone members allowed wages to rise and the public sector to become bloated, and then looked away as easy credit fueled both debt and asset bubbles.	事实上，德国前社会民主党政府削弱《公约》来实施这一点的做法是合适的政治举措，而那些竞争力更低的欧元区国家则坐视工资上升和公共部门膨胀，接着在扩大信用则助长了债务和资产泡沫后则不敢正视问题。


We cannot foster sustainable growth or preempt a sovereign-debt crisis in Europe (or anywhere else) by piling-up more debt.	如果债务继续这样堆积下去的话，我们就无法预期可持续增长或者提前应对欧洲政府债务危机。


European countries need to reduce their deficits in a growth-friendly fashion, but reduce them they must.	欧洲国家需要用一种对增长有益的方式减少他们的赤字，而且必须减少。


It can be done: Germany is reducing its debt burden to sustainable levels while strengthening its long-term growth prospects.	这个目标是可以实现的：德国正在将其债务负担减少到可以持续的水平并提升其长期增长前景。


Its course of pro-growth deficit reduction, together with its suggestions for strengthening Europe’s fiscal framework, could serve as a blueprint for European economic governance.	它这种促进增长的赤字削减，再加上它加强欧洲财政框架的建议，都将成为欧洲经济治理的蓝图。


Solidarity With Sharks	声援鲨鱼


SAN JOSE – It has long been said that we know more about the Moon than we do about the oceans.	圣何塞——一直以来，有种说法是我们对海洋的了解还不及月球。


After all, 12 people have walked on the surface of the Moon, but only three have been to the deepest part of the sea.	毕竟已有12人踏上了月球表面，但抵达海洋最深处的却只有3人。


But it now seems that we know even less about the oceans than we thought – and we may well have been doing even more damage than we realized.	但现在貌似我们对海洋的了解比想象的还少——我们所造成的危害一直没有被完全认识到。


A recent study found that fishing catches have been substantially underestimated for years.	最近一项研究显示渔业产量多年以来一直被严重低估。


This should grab the attention of both regional fisheries management organizations, which oversee commercial fishing in the high seas, and those monitoring compliance with the United Nations Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), which covers endangered migratory species.	这理应引起负责监督公海商业捕鱼行为的地区渔业管理机构的重视，同时必须重视这个问题的还有负责保护濒危迁徙物种的联合国《保护野生动物迁徙物种公约》（CMS）监管者。


According to the CMS, the species demanding the strictest protection today – listed in Appendix I – include great white sharks, five species of sawfish, and eleven species of ray.	《保护野生动物迁徙物种公约》附录I 规定，今天有必要对大白鲨、5种锯鳐和11种鳐鱼实行最严格的保护。


The CMS meetings on migratory sharks, set to take place this month in San Jose, Costa Rica, represent an important opportunity for advancing regulations to ensure the conservation and sustainable use of these species, so that they can continue to fulfill their critical ecological role as apex predators.	《保护野生动物迁徙物种公约》将于本月在哥斯达黎加圣何塞召开的洄游鲨鱼会议为推进法规建设提供了重要机会，其目的是保护及可持续利用上述物种，以使其继续发挥顶级捕食者至关重要的生态作用。


At their last conference, held in Quito, Ecuador, in 2014, the CMS parties added several shark species, the protection of which governments are encouraged to secure through the negotiation of international agreements.	在2014年厄瓜多尔基多举行的最后一次会议上，《保护野生动物迁徙物种公约》缔约国增补了若干鲨鱼品种，并鼓励政府通过谈判国际协议的方式对其进行保护。


One such agreement, reached in 2010 and so far signed by 39 parties, is the Memorandum of Understanding on the Conservation of Migratory Sharks.	其中一项协议为2010年签署的《迁徙鲨鱼保护谅解备忘录》，该备忘录到目前为止共有39个签字国。


Despite being legally non-binding, the initiative provides an important forum to reach agreement on policies ensuring that any exploitation of migratory shark populations is sustainable.	尽管不具备法律约束力，但该协议为确保就迁徙鲨鱼种群可持续利用政策达成一致提供了重要的讨论场所。


But, as the recent study on fishing catches underscores, we often lack the accurate data needed to determine what level of consumption is sustainable.	但近期渔业产量研究显示我们往往缺少确定何种消费水准可以持续的准确数据资料。


Without it, the precautionary principle – if in doubt, don’t do it – should be applied.	在缺乏资料的前提下，应该适用“没有把握就不做”的预防性原则。


The problem is that the absence of reliable data can make the need to protect a species seem more abstract and less urgent, weakening governments’ capacity to resist other, more immediate demands, especially the need to protect relevant livelihoods.	问题在于缺乏可靠数据可以让保护特定物种的必要性显得抽象和不那么紧迫，削弱政府抵制其他更直接需求的能力，特别当牵涉到对相关人员的生计予以保护。


In the meantime, consumption of the oceans’ resources continues to surge.	此外，海洋资源消耗仍持续攀高。


Over the last two generations, as the world population has doubled to 7.3 billion, the amount of fish taken from the oceans each year has grown even faster, from 20 million metric tons in 1950 to 77 million in 2010.	过去两代人时间里，随着世界人口总量翻番至73亿，每年海洋渔业捕捞增长进一步加速，从1950年的2000万吨增长至2010年的7700万吨之多。


And these are only the official figures, which do not account for illegal, unregulated, and unreported catches.	这还仅仅是官方数字，不包括非法、管制外及未报告的渔业捕获。


Given that sharks are a commercially valuable secondary catch of fisheries (usually those targeting tuna), regional fisheries management organizations tend not to elaborate specific regulations for them.	鉴于鲨鱼通常为（针对金枪鱼）捕捞作业的具有商业价值的次级渔业捕获物，地区渔业管理组织往往不特别规定针对鲨鱼的捕捞细则。


It is thus easier for sharks to slip through the gaps in international law than to elude fishermen’s nets – especially the massive specialized nets that fisheries employ nowadays.	鲨鱼因此更容易沦为国际法监管漏洞并因此逃不脱渔民的渔网——尤其考虑到当前渔业普遍采用大型专业网络。


Indeed, unlike the artisanal fisherman of the past, factory ships and modern technologies have enabled the massive scaling up of catches to satisfy demand not only locally, but in distant markets as well.	的确，和过去手工捕鱼不同，捕鲸船和现代技术已大幅提高了渔业产量，以满足当地及遥远地区的市场需求。


Given this, the addition of so many species to the endangered list in recent years should come as no surprise.	有鉴于此，今年来濒危名单增加如此众多的物种应该并不令人感到惊讶。


In this challenging environment, initiatives like the Memorandum of Understanding become even more crucial as a means of encouraging (often region-specific) action.	在当前充满挑战的环境下，《谅解备忘录》这样的协议在鼓励行动（往往针对特定区域）方面往往更加至关重要。


Some signatories, including certain Pacific island states, have declared their huge exclusive economic zones to be shark sanctuaries and have established areas where all fishing is prohibited.	某些签字国，包括某些太平洋岛国��宣布设立保护鲨鱼的超大规模专属经济区，并划定严禁一切捕捞行为的禁渔海域。


For their part, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States have created observer schemes and systems to assess and manage fish stocks.	此外，澳大利亚、新西兰和美国均已制定观测计划和体系，以便对鱼类种群进行管理和评估。


Furthermore, in response to the outcry at the wasteful practice of shark finning, the European Union now requires that all sharks are landed intact, thereby preventing the removal of fins from sharks at sea and the disposal overboard of their less valuable bodies.	此外，欧盟现在要求所有鲨鱼上岸时必须保持完整，以响应对割掉鱼翅这一浪费做法的大声疾呼。 这项法规可以防止在海上割去鲨鱼的鱼鳍，并把不那么值钱的鱼身重新扔回到海中。


This has been reinforced by the Chinese government’s pledge not to serve shark fin soup, considered a delicacy, at official banquets.	中国政府承诺不在正式宴会上提供鱼翅羹则呼应了欧盟的规则，鱼翅羹在传统上曾被认为是一种美味佳肴。


Even freight companies and airlines have been spurred to act, with a growing number now refusing to transport shark fins.	就连货运公司和航空公司也纷纷宣布采取行动，越来越多企业现在正拒绝提供鱼翅运输服务。


While such progress should be applauded, there is a long way to go.	虽然这样的进步值得赞赏，但还有很长的路要走。


For example, efforts must be made to address bycatch (the trapping of sharks in nets intended for other fish, especially tuna).	比方说，必须努力解决间接渔获问题（即用旨在捕捞其他鱼类，特别是金枪鱼的渔网捕获鲨鱼）。


The key is for all interested parties – from fisherman and conservationists to governments and international forums – to work together through the Memorandum of Understanding and similar initiatives.	关键是从渔民及自然资源保护主义者到政府和国际论坛的所有利益相关方通过签署谅解备忘录和类似协议的形式展开合作。


The adverse economic impact implied by such efforts is not nearly as large as one might expect; in many cases, it could be more than offset by other kinds of commercial activities that take advantage of live sharks.	上述努力的负面经济影响并不像人们预想的那样大； 在许多情况下，利用活体鲨鱼进行的其他类型的商业活动可以完全抵消限捕带来的损失。


The thriving ecotourism operations in the Maldives, Kenya, South Africa, Fiji, and some Central American and Caribbean countries are a case in point.	在马尔代夫、肯尼亚、南非、斐济及某些中美和加勒比国家蓬勃发展的生态旅游业就是很好的例子。


As a tourist draw, seen at close quarters in its natural habitat, a manta ray can be worth thousands of dollars; dead on a slab at the quayside, its flesh and gills fetch a fraction of that.	在自然栖息地近距离看到吸引旅游者的蝠鲼可以价值数千美元； 但如果死在码头上，它的肉和鳃加起来也只是个零头。


The short-term thinking that impedes environmental conservation efforts today could prove devastating; indeed, to some extent, it already has.	事实可能会证明阻碍今天环保工作的短期思维具有毁灭性效果；


If we continue to deplete critical ecosystems, they will soon become unable to regenerate.	事实上，在某种程度上，上述毁灭性效果已经体现得日益显著。


Only with a concerted, cooperative, and urgent effort to preserve marine ecosystems and protect the livelihoods of those who depend on them will the oceans be able to continue to feed – and fascinate – the world for generations to come.	如果我们继续消耗关键生态资源，很快就会加大它们的再生难度。 只有协调一致地即刻合作保护海洋生态系统并保护以此为生者的生计，海洋才能世世代代继续喂养——和吸引世界各地的民众。


Debating the Confidence Fairy	信心仙子辩


LONDON – In 2011, the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman characterized conservative discourse on budget deficits in terms of “bond vigilantes” and the “confidence fairy.”	伦敦—2011年，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）用“债券纠察队”（bond vigilantes）和“信心仙子”（confidence fairy）形容预算赤字方面的保守做法。


Unless governments cut their deficits, the bond vigilantes will put the screws to them by forcing up interest rates.	除非政府削减赤字，否则债券纠察队将通过推高利率迫使它们就范。


But if they do cut, the confidence fairy will reward them by stimulating private spending more than the cuts depress it.	但如果它们确实削减了赤字，信心仙子将通过刺激比削减赤字所影响的更多的私人支出来奖励它们。


Krugman thought the “bond vigilante” claim might be valid for a few countries, such as Greece, but argued that the “confidence fairy” was no less imaginary than the one that collects children’s teeth.	克鲁格曼认为“债券纠察队”一词也许只对希腊等少数国家适用，但“信心仙子”纯属想象，和收集儿童的牙仙差不多。


Cutting a deficit in a slump could never cause a recovery.	在衰退中削减赤字永远不可能带来复苏。


Political rhetoric can stop a good policy from being adopted, but it cannot stop it from succeeding.	政治说辞可能导致好政策无法实施，但无法阻止它成功。


Above all, it cannot make a bad policy work.	毕竟，它无法让坏政策起作用。


I recently debated this point with Krugman at a New York Review of Books event.	我最近在一次《纽约书评》（New York Review of Books）活动中与克鲁格曼辩论了这一问题。


My argument was that adverse expectations could affect a policy’s results, not just the chances that it will be adopted.	我的观点是不良期望可能影响政策的效果，而不仅仅是政策被采取的可能。


For example, if people thought that government borrowing was simply deferred taxation, they might save more to meet their expected future tax bill.	比如，如果人们认为政府借贷只是延迟了征税，他们可能储蓄更多以应对预期的未来账单。


On reflection, I think I was wrong.	深入思考后，我认为我是错误的。


The confidence factor affects government decision-making, but it does not affect the results of decisions.	信心因素影响政府决策，但不影响决策的效果。


Except in extreme cases, confidence cannot cause a bad policy to have good results, and a lack of it cannot cause a good policy to have bad results, any more than jumping out of a window in the mistaken belief that humans can fly can offset the effect of gravity.	除了极端情形，信心无法让坏政策产生好结果，而缺少信心也不会让好政策产生坏结果，就好比你怀着人可以飞的错误信念跳出窗户无法战胜重力作用。


The sequence of events in the Great Recession that began in 2008 bears this out.	始于2008年的大衰退的发展情况说明了这一点。


At first, governments threw everything at it.	一开始，政府竭尽全力对付它。


This prevented the Great Recession from becoming Great Depression II.	这阻止了大衰退演变为大萧条II。


But, before the economy reached bottom, the stimulus was turned off, and austerity – accelerated liquidation of budget deficits, mainly by cuts in spending – became the order of the day.	但是，在经济触底前，刺激就结束了，而紧缩——预算赤字的加速清偿，主要通过支出削减实现——成为主流。


Once winded political elites had recovered their breath, they began telling a story designed to preclude any further fiscal stimulus.	一旦焦头烂额的政治精英获得了喘息之机，他们就开始编制阻挠一切后续财政刺激的故事。


The slump had been created by fiscal extravagance, they insisted, and therefore could be cured only by fiscal austerity.	衰退是因为财政挥霍造成的，他们说，因此只能通过财政紧缩治愈。


And not any old austerity: it was spending on the poor, not the rich, that had to be cut, because such spending was the real cause of the trouble.	并且不是旧式紧缩：是穷人而非富人的支出必须削减，因为穷人的支出是真正的麻烦之源。


Any Keynesian knows that cutting the deficit in a slump is bad policy.	凯恩斯主义者都知道，在衰退中削减赤字是坏政策。


A slump, after all, is defined by a deficiency in total spending.	毕竟，衰退的定义便是总支出不足。


To try to cure it by spending less is like trying to cure a sick person by bleeding.	试图用减少支出来解决衰退就像是用放血来治疗病人。


So it was natural to ask economist/advocates of bleeding like Harvard’s Alberto Alesina and Kenneth Rogoff how they expected their cure to work.	因此，我们大应该问问放血派经济学家/支持者，如哈佛大学的阿尔贝托·阿莱西纳（Alberto Alesina）和肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff），为何他们认为自己的治疗方法能起作用。


Their answer was that the belief that it would work – the confidence fairy – would ensure its success.	他们的答案是，认为政策能起作用——即信心仙子——将确保政策的成功。


More precisely, Alesina argued that while bleeding on its own would worsen the patient’s condition, its beneficial impact on expectations would more than offset its debilitating effects.	更准确地说，阿莱西纳指出，尽管放血会恶化病患的状况，但其对预期的积极影响将抵消其消极作用。


Buoyed by assurance of recovery, the half-dead patient would leap out of bed, start running, jumping, and eating normally, and would soon be restored to full vigor.	受复苏保证的鼓舞，半死的病患会从病床上一跃而起，能跑能跳，能照常饮食，并且很快就会恢复活力。


The bleeding school produced some flaky evidence to show that this had happened in a few instances.	放血派炮制了一些蹩脚证据证明这在少数例子中取得过效果。


Conservatives who wanted to cut public spending for ideological reasons found the bond vigilante/confidence fairy story to be ideally suited to their purpose.	想以意识形态理由削减公共支出的保守派发现，债券纠察队/信心仙子的故事可以完美契合他们的目的。


Talking up previous fiscal extravagance made a bond-market attack on heavily indebted governments seem more plausible (and more likely); the confidence fairy promised to reward fiscal frugality by making the economy more productive.	大谈从前的财政挥霍让债券市场将打击负债沉重的政府的说法变得更加可信（也更加可能）； 信心仙子承诺通过提高经济生产率奖励财政节俭。


With the help of professors like Alesina, conservative conviction could be turned into scientific prediction.	在阿莱西纳等教授的帮助下，保守派观点可能转变为科学预言。


And when Alesina’s cure failed to produce rapid recovery, there was an obvious excuse: it had not been applied with enough vigor to be “credible.”	而如果阿莱西纳的办法没能产生快速复苏，也有一个显而易见的借口：实施力度不够以至于缺少“信誉”。


The cure, such as it was, finally came about, years behind schedule, not through fiscal bleeding, but by massive monetary stimulus.	最后，这一疗法终于开始了，比预想的时间晚了好几年，也不是通过财政放血，而是通过大规模货币刺激。


When the groggy patient eventually staggered to its feet, the champions of fiscal bleeding triumphantly proclaimed that austerity had worked.	当东倒西歪的病患终于勉强站起来时，财政放血鼓手胜利宣布紧缩见效了。


The moral of the tale is simple: Austerity in a slump does not work, for the reason that the medieval cure of bleeding a patient never worked: it enfeebles instead of strengthening.	这个故事的寓意显简洁明了：衰退中的紧缩不管用，因为中世纪的放血疗法从未管用过：它只能让病患更加虚弱而不是让他们变得强壮。


Inserting the confidence fairy between the cause and effect of a policy does not change the logic of the policy; it simply obscures the logic for a time.	在政策的原因和效果之间插入信心仙子并不改变政策的逻辑，而只能暂时让其逻辑变得模糊。


Recovery may come about despite fiscal austerity, but never because of it.	复苏即使在财政紧缩时也可能发生，但绝不可能因为财政紧缩而发生。


Although Krugman invented his discourse for an American readership, it perfectly fits the British case as well.	尽管克鲁格曼阐明个中道理是面向美国读者，但其中的道理也十分契合英国的情况。


In his first budget in June 2010, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne warned that “you can see in Greece an example of a country that didn’t face up to its problems, and that’s a fate I am determined to avoid.”	2010年6月，在其第一份预算中，财政大臣乔治·奥斯本（George Osborne）警告说，“希腊是一国不直面其问题的例子，我决心避免这一覆辙。 ”


In presenting the United Kingdom’s 2015 budget in March, Osborne claimed that austerity had made Britain “walk tall” again.	今年3月，在公布英国2015年预算时，奥斯本宣称紧缩让英国再一次“站了起来”。


On May 7, that claim will be put to the test in the UK’s parliamentary election.	5月7日，这一观点将经受英国议会选举的考验。


British voters, still wobbly from Osborne’s medicine, can be forgiven if they decide that they should have stayed in bed.	在奥斯本的药方下，英国选民仍然远远没有完全恢复，如果他们决定当初还不如呆在病榻上，也无可指摘。


Creative Self-Disruption	创造性自我破坏


LAGUNA BEACH – Like many readers, I still vividly recall when Nokia was the dominant player in mobile phones, with over 40% of the market, and Apple was just a computer company.	拉古娜海滩—和许多读者一样，我还能生动地回忆起诺基亚主宰手机市场、占据40%以上份额，而苹果还只是电脑公司的日子。


I remember when Amazon was known only for books, and when dirty taxis or high-priced limousines were the only alternative to public transport or my own car.	我记得亚马逊还只是知名书店、肮脏的的士或高价豪华轿车还是公共交通或自驾车的唯一替代方案的日子。


And I recall when the Four Seasons, Ritz Carltons, and St. Regises of this world competed with one another – not with Airbnb.	我也记得四季、丽兹卡尔顿、圣瑞吉斯等酒店彼此竞争——而不是和Airbnb竞争——的日子。


Now, I may be old, but I am not that old.	现在，我也许已经老了，但我还没有那么老。


These changes happened recently – and fast.	这些变化最近才发生——很快地发生。


How did they occur?	它们是如何发生的？


Will the pace of change remain so rapid – or even accelerate further?	变化的节奏会保持如此快速——甚或还会加速吗？


And how should companies respond?	小公司应该如何应对？


An industry can be transformed by top-down economic, financial, political, and regulatory changes.	一个行业可以通过自上而下的经济、金融、政治和监管变化而改变。


But companies like Airbnb, Amazon, Apple, and Uber exemplify a different kind of transformation: agile players invade other, seemingly unrelated industries and brilliantly exploit huge but previously unseen opportunities.	但Airbnb、亚马逊、苹果和Uber等公司说明了一种不同类型的改变：敏捷的玩家入侵其他看起来无关的行业，大肆利用并前所未见的巨大机会。


Importantly and counter-intuitively, doing so serves their own core competencies, rather than those of the industry that they seek to disrupt.	一个重要并且反直觉的特点是，这样做有利于它们自身的核心竞争力，而不利于它们寻求颠覆的行业的核心竞争力。


Indeed, rather than using existing approaches and processes to compete, these entrants created radical new game plans, rewriting the target industry’s rules.	事实上，这些新来者没有沿用已有方法和过程去竞争，而是创造了全新的游戏计划，改写了目标行业的规则。


Their creativity and passion enabled them to subdue – and in some cases even destroy – less adaptable giants remarkably quickly.	它们的创造力和激情使他们以不可思议的高速征服——有时甚至毁灭——改变不及的巨头。


Central to these companies’ success has been their understanding of a fundamental trend affecting nearly all industries: individual empowerment through the Internet, app technology, digitalization, and social media.	这些公司成功的核心是它们对影响几乎所有行业的根本趋势的理解：通过互联网、应用技术、数字化和社交媒体实现的个体赋权（individual empowerment）。


Most traditional companies, meanwhile, remain focused on their macro environment, at the expense of responding adequately to the new micro-level forces in play.	与此同时，大部分传统公司仍注重宏观环境，其代价是无法充分应对新的围观层面的力量。


If existing companies hope to compete in this new environment, shaped by both top-down and bottom-up forces, they will to have to adapt, preempting disruptive new players by figuring out how to disrupt themselves.	如果现有公司想在这一同时被自上而下和自下而上两股力量左右的新环境下竞争，就必须做出改变，通过学习如何颠覆自己先发制人地颠覆新来者。


Otherwise, they could face a fate similar to Nokia, which was disintermediated by one tech company (Apple) and acquired by another (Microsoft).	否则它们将面临与诺基亚类似的命运——先是被一家科技公司（苹果）脱媒，然后被另一家（微软）收购。


In this effort, companies must recognize that both demand and supply factors are or will be driving the transformation of their competitive landscapes.	在改变过程中，公司必须认识到，供给和需求因素在或将推动它们的竞争格局的变化。


On the demand side, consumers expect a lot more from the products and services they use.	在需求端，消费者期待从他们所使用的产品和服务中得到更多。


They want speed, productivity, and convenience.	他们想要速度、生产率和便利性。


They want easy connectivity and expanded scope for customization.	他们想要轻松的连通性和更大的定制规模。


And, as the success of services like TripAdvisor show, they want to be more engaged, with companies responding faster to their feedback with real improvements.	此外，TripAdvisor等服务的成功表明，消费者想要更多的参与，公司更快地用真实的改进响应他们的反馈。


On the supply side, technological advances are toppling long-standing entry barriers.	在供给端，科技进步正在推翻长期存在的进入壁垒。


The online car service Uber adapted existing technologies to transform a long-sheltered industry that too often provided lousy and expensive service.	在线汽车服务商Uber利用现有科技撼动了一个长期存在壁垒、常常提供价不廉物不美服务的行业。


Airbnb’s “supply” of rooms far exceeds anything to which traditional hotels could reasonably aspire.	Airbnb的房间“供给”远远超过了传统饭店能够想象的规模。


An existing company would have to be highly specialized, well protected, or foolish to ignore these disruptions.	现有公司将不得不高度专业���，受严格保护，或愚蠢地忽视这些破坏。


But, while some well-established companies in traditional industries are already looking for ways to adapt, others still need to do a lot more.	但是，尽管一些传统行业中的老牌公司一开始寻找适应方法，但另一些公司仍有很多东西要做。


One traditional industry in which progress is being made is the automotive branch, where companies are pursuing digitalization.	一个正在取得进步的传统行业是汽车业，该行业的公司正在追求数字化。


Though new entrants could undoubtedly disrupt incumbents’ production platforms – Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors is a clear example – they are rare.	尽管新来者毫无疑问将破坏老牌公司的生产平台——艾龙·马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯拉汽车公司就是明证——但它们是少数。


These days, the more pervasive competitive threat comes from companies in other domains that can erode the customer value proposition after the car is sold.	近段时间以来，更普遍的竞争威胁来自其他领域的可能影响汽车售后客户价值主张（value proposition）的公司。


Automotive companies are recognizing that, over time, the digital experience in the cars they produce will command a larger share of the consumer surplus, owing largely to the potential for substantial profit margins and economies of scale.	汽车公司正在认识到，假以时日，它们所生产汽车的车内数字体验将占据更大的消费者剩余比例，这主要是拜可观的利润率和规模经济所赐。


As a result, they are adapting their vehicles to the new sharing economy, helping people to remain well-connected in the car, expanding the scope of after-sale services, and preparing for the shift away from individual car ownership toward car sharing.	因此，它们正在改变它们的汽车以适应新共享经济，让人们可以在车内很好地联网，扩大售后服务范围，并准备着从个体汽车所有向汽车共享的转变。


Banks are also adapting, but much more slowly and hesitantly.	银行也在适应，但动作更慢也更犹豫。


If they are to make progress, they must move beyond simply providing apps and online banking.	如果它们要想有所改进，就必须跳出只是提供应用和在线银行的窠臼。


Their aim should be holistic engagement of clients, who seek not only convenience and security, but also more control over their financial destiny.	它们的目标应该是客户的全盘参与——客户不仅追求便利和安全，也追求更多地掌控他们的金融命运。


In these and many other industries, the competitive landscape is undoubtedly becoming more complicated and unpredictable.	在这些和其他许多行业，竞争格局毫无疑问正在变得更加复杂、更加不可预测。


But four general guidelines can help managers effectively adapt their mindsets and business models to facilitate orderly and constructive self-disruption.	但四个总体原则能够帮助管理者有效地改变思维和商业模式，推动有序的建设性自我破坏。


· First, companies should modernize core competencies by benchmarking beyond the narrow confines of their industry.	·       首先，公司应该将基准扩大到所在行业的狭隘范围之外，以此实现核心竞争力的现代化。


· Second, they should increase their focus on customers, including by soliciting and responding to feedback in an engaging way.	·       其次，它们应该更加关注客户，包括通过参与性方式招徕和响应反馈。


· Third, managers should recognize the value of the data collected in their companies’ everyday operations, and ensure that it is managed intelligently and securely.	·       第三，管理者应该认识到从公司日常运营中所收集的数据的价值，并确保明智、安全地管理这一数据。


· Finally, the micro-level forces that have the potential to drive segment-wide transformations should be internalized at every level of the company.	·       最后，有可能驱动市场细分级别转变的微观层面力量应该在公司的每一个层面上内部化。


Companies that apply these guidelines stand a better chance of adapting to what is driving today’s rapid reconfiguration of entire industries.	应用这些原则的公司有更大的机会适应驱动当今全行业快速重构的因素。


The bottom line, once again, is supply and demand: More than ever, people want – indeed, feel empowered to expect – cheaper, smarter, safer, and more efficient tools to live a more self-directed life.	根本点仍然是供给和需求：人们比以往更加渴望——事实上，是感到更有力量能够期待——更廉价、更智能、更安全、更高效的工具实现更加“由我做主”的生活。


Companies that fail to deliver will find that their days are numbered.	无法提供这样的工具的公司将会发现，它们已经来日无多。


Containing Financial Turmoil	抑制金融混乱


Today’s ongoing financial market turmoil comes as no surprise to those who have been warning about the risks to the world economy from the end of the housing market bubble in the United States.	在那些从美国住房市场泡沫破裂后就一直在预警世界经济风险的人们看来，今天发生的持续性金融市场混乱丝毫不值得大惊小怪。


Back in January, the United Nations’ outlook for the global economy raised concerns about the economic pain this might impose on heavily indebted US households.	今年1月，美国对全球经济的展望就引发了可能给债台高筑的美国住宅市场带来经济阵痛的忧虑。


It also emphasized how weakly regulated, closely interconnected global financial markets, together with persistent global macroeconomic imbalances, jeopardize growth and development prospects in the world economy, including poorer countries.	它还明确了管理疲弱、联系紧密的全球金融市场和长久以来的全球宏观经济失衡如何影响到包括贫困国家在内的世界经济的发展前景。


The US current account deficit has been the most widely discussed indicator of global imbalances.	美国的经常项目赤字是人们议论最多的一项全球经济失衡指标。


For the past five years, the US has been sucking in more than $2 billion a day of other countries’ savings, as the easy provision of domestic credit on an unprecedented scale has allowed households to spend more than they earn.	过去5年来，随着史无前例的宽松的国内信贷政策允许家庭以超过自己收入的尺度进行开支，美国每一天吸收其它国家存款的金额都要超过20亿美元。


Such borrowing was especially attractive as asset (housing and equity) prices kept rising, interest rates remained low, and succeeding generations of financial market innovators could convince investors that they had mastered the exigencies of risk.	资产（住宅和股票）价格的一路扬升和利率的一路走低更增加了这种借贷方式的魅力，使得继任的金融市场改革者能够说服投资者风险已经在他们的掌控之中。


Thus, further lending, even against over-valued collateral, was “sold” as a sign of good times ahead.	因此，就连抵押品估值过高的二次借贷也被作为未来美好前景的标志而大肆宣传。


Warnings about irrational market exuberance were largely ignored, especially as US consumer spending helped fuel strong growth across the global economy.	特别是当美国消费者的大肆挥霍推动全球经济强劲增长之时，人们对市场非理性繁荣的警告大都充耳不闻。


Robust exports from Japan and Europe supported economic recovery and steadied investor confidence, providing, in turn, further export opportunities for newly industrializing countries, most notably China.	日本和欧洲的强劲出口支持经济恢复增长、也稳定了投资者的心态，进而又为新兴的工业化国家，特别是中国，提供了进一步的出口机遇。


Meanwhile, heightened international competition kept the lid on inflation, and interest rates remained low, giving a further boost to consumer spending and completing what looked like a virtuous growth circle.	与此同时，国际竞争的加剧抑制了通货膨胀，使得利率维持在较低的水平，这样又进一步推动了消费者的消费支出，完成了貌似良性的整个增长周期循环。


Even many of the poorest countries seemed, at long last, to be joining in, posting strong growth on the back of rising energy and raw material prices, renewed mining investments from abroad, and increasing fiscal revenues.	时间一长，就连很多最贫困的国家似乎也加入到这次盛宴，在日益提升的能源和原材料价格、国外周而复始的矿业投资以及日益增长的财政收入的支持下获得了强劲的经济发展。


Although the numbers were never as rosy as market enthusiasts seemed to think, they did divert attention away from the shaky foundations of the newfound prosperity.	尽管数字从未像狂热市场人士所想象的那样美好，但的确能将人们的注意力从摇摇欲坠的繁荣基础上转移开去。


The growing need for measures to correct global imbalances was met with disbelief by influential policymakers and market analysts alike: “Why change a winning formula?”	影响巨大的政治家和市场分析人士都对日益迫切的纠正全球失衡的需要不屑一顾：“为什么要改变这样一种行之有效的方式？ ”


The fate of the rest of the world depends on the responses to the unfolding financial turmoil.	世界其它国家的命运取决于人们对正在扩散的金融混乱做何反应。


The contraction of property and stock markets will undoubtedly dampen US household borrowing and demand, potentially triggering a downward spiral.	房地产和股票市场的缩水肯定会抑制美国家庭的需求和借贷，很有可能引发经济的滑坡。


If protection is sought through tariff and other trade-related measures, then the knock-on effects could have even more devastating consequences for all.	如果企图通过关税和其它与贸易有关的措施来进行保护，那么政策的反弹效应可能会对所有国家造成破坏性后果。


In recent weeks, leading central bankers have injected over $300 billion into the financial system, lowered the rates at which they lend to private banks, and announced that such activism will continue until calm returns.	最近几个星期，几大央行行长已经为金融系统注资3000亿美元、调低向私有银行借贷的利率，并宣布这样的积极措施将一直维持到这次金融混乱的影响平稳过去。


This may be enough to calm financial markets for now, but it will not redress the more fundamental problems behind the current turmoil.	这些措施也许现在足以使金融市场恢复平静，但却无法解决当前混乱背后的那些更为基本的问题。


In today’s interdependent world, a coordinated strategy is needed to avoid recession and to return lasting stability to financial markets.	在今天这样一个相互依存的世界，需要制定一项共同策略来防止经济衰退，恢复金融市场的长期稳定。


Indeed, the fact that the world is again worrying about the economic fallout from financial shocks highlights the lack of progress since the Asian crisis a decade ago in moving towards a new international financial architecture.	事实上，金融动荡所导致的经济后果再次引发世界的忧虑凸显了10年前亚洲危机后向全新国际金融构架过渡缺乏进展的事实。


While there has been some progress on harmonizing standards and extending surveillance, there has been far too much emphasis on strengthening governance in developing countries and not enough on systemic problems linked to unregulated private capital flows.	尽管在统一标准和扩大监管方面小有成就，但整体重心却过多地放在了加强对发展中国家的管理，而缺乏管理的私有资本流动所引发的系统性问题却没有引起足够的重视。


With the imminent threat of global recession, austerity measures are not the way to correct global imbalances.	随着全球经济衰退的风险日益邻近，采取严厉措施并不是纠正全球经济失衡的有效方法。


Rather, deficit countries need to export their way back to balance, while imports should increase in surplus countries.	相反，赤字国家需要加强出口，恢复进出口贸易的平衡； 而贸易顺差国也应该加大进口力度。


Moreover, productive investments are needed in the poorest countries to resume or sustain economic development.	不仅如此，需要在最为贫困的国家进行建设性的投资，以便恢复或保持经济的增长。


Policymakers need the fiscal and monetary space to move in this direction.	决策者需要财政和货币空间才能朝着这个方向努力。


Institutionalizing a mechanism for broad-based international economic surveillance and policy coordination will be an important longer-term goal, but at this point, world leaders urgently need to rebalance global demand and improve the management of the exchange-rate system.	将基础广泛的国际经济监管和政策协调制度化将是重要的长期目标，但到目前为止，世界领导人急需恢复全球需求平衡，并改善针对汇率体系的管理。


Moving forward requires all governments to act through inclusive multilateral organizations and arrangements.	要想取得进展，所有政府都必须依靠多边机构、按照多边协议来采取行动。


Despite the IMF’s undemocratic and corporate-like governance, which has undermined its legitimacy and credibility in the developing world and distorted efforts to extend its surveillance role, there is no alternative multilateral body available.	尽管国际货币基金组织管理缺乏民主和过于企业化影响了该组织在发展中国家的地位和信任度，也歪曲了扩大监管范围的努力，但在目前却没有其它多边组织可以替代国际货币基金组织所发挥的作用。


Such a coordinated response will need to address immediate short-term problems as well as provide medium-term solutions without plunging the world economy into another painful recession.	这样步调一致的共同回应需要在解决迫在眉睫的近期问题的同时，为防止世界经济陷入痛苦的衰退提供中期的解决方案。


And it is imperative that this time around, reforms offer a lasting solution to global imbalances and tackle head on the most unruly elements of international financial capital.	这一次，改革必须能够永久性地解决全球经济失衡问题，并直接处理国际金融资本领域最不受控制的因素。


Containment Begins at Home	遏制始于国内


NEW YORK – Earlier this month, Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez, a 24-year-old US citizen of Middle Eastern descent, opened fire at two military sites in Chattanooga, Tennessee, killing five.	纽约——本月早些时候，穆罕默德·优素福·阿齐兹，一位24岁的中东裔美国公民在田纳西州查塔怒加市的两座军事基地开火，造成5人死亡。


This act of local horror was also one of national significance, for it vindicated the late US diplomat and strategist George F. Kennan’s warning that American foreign policymakers should hold in check their urge to act, especially militarily.	这起地方性恐怖事件具有全国性意义，因为它证明已故美国外交官兼战略家乔治·凯南的警告是正确的，凯南警告美国外交决策者应该遏制自己的行为冲动，特别是在军事方面。


One can never know when the blowback will come, Kennan warned, but it will.	凯南警告说人们或许永远不会知道报应什么时候会来，但它一定会来的。


Indeed, unforeseeable consequences were precisely what concerned Kennan when the United States charged into Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq two years later.	事实上，当美国2001年冲进阿富汗、两年后又冲进伊拉克时，凯南所担心的恰恰是不可预见的后果。


After all, it was no coincidence that many of those the US was fighting in Afghanistan, including Osama bin Laden himself, had been associated with the Mujahedeen, the guerilla-style units of Muslim warriors whom US forces trained as insurgents during the 1979-1989 Soviet occupation.	毕竟，美国在阿富汗的很多对手，包括本·拉登本人都与1979-1989年苏联占领期间美军训练的叛乱分子穆斯林战斗游击队有着千丝万缕的联系并不是巧合。


Likewise, the US had armed Saddam Hussein’s Iraq to go to war with Iran in the 1980s.	同样，20世纪80年代，美国曾武装萨达姆·侯赛因的伊拉克与伊朗进行战争。


Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Americans asked, “Why do they hate us?”	2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击后，美国人问“他们为什么恨我们？


Yet, though the US has experienced no attack on its soil since then, US President George W. Bush’s administration pursued, virtually unchecked, the destruction of two Muslim countries – and the devastation has continued beyond Bush’s tenure with an ever-intensifying campaign of drone strikes.	”但尽管自那以后美国本土没有再发生袭击事件，美国总统乔治·W·布什政府却几乎毫无遏制地对两个穆斯林国家发起了破坏活动——布什任期结束后破坏仍在继续，美国发起了空前惨烈的无人机战争。


These policies have helped push Afghanistan to the precipice of state failure, while opening the way for the Islamic State to take over more than one-third of Iraq’s territory.	这些政策将阿富汗推到了国家失败的悬崖边缘，同时开启了伊斯兰国占领伊拉克超过三分之一领土的可能。


The resulting discontent in those countries and across the Muslim world has increasingly been felt in Europe – and now is emerging in the US, too.	由此造成的上述国家和整个穆斯林世界的不满在欧洲能够越来越明显地被感受到——而且现在正在传播到美国。


To be sure, US criminal investigators have not officially identified the motives of the Kuwaiti-born Abdulazeez, who does not seem to have belonged to a terror network.	可以肯定，美国刑事调查人员还没有正式确定阿齐兹的动机，这名年轻人在科威特出生，似乎并不属于任何恐怖组织。


But there is plenty of precedent for an alienated and disenchanted young man, brought up in the West (Abdulazeez attended high school and college in Chattanooga), to seek a cause worth fighting for – and to find it in the perceived humiliation of Islam by America and the West.	但现实中不乏在西方长大（阿齐兹在查塔怒加市上的高中和大学），梦想破灭、陷入孤立的年轻人寻找值得为之奋斗的事业——并在伊斯兰遭受美国和西方所谓的羞辱中找到奋斗目标的先例。


Of course, as soon as the word “Islam” appears, Western media start painting such “lone wolves” as agents of some vast Islamic conspiracy, rather than deeply wounded and desperate individuals.	当然，只要“伊斯兰”这个词一出现，西方媒体大��描绘的不是受伤而绝望的个体，而是作为某种巨型伊斯兰阴谋代理的“独狼”。


Such an interpretation makes the act easier to understand: a cog in a terrorist network would be compelled, even brainwashed, to mount such an attack.	这样的解释让恐怖行为更容易理解：恐怖网络的某个齿轮将被启动、甚至不惜对其进行洗脑来实施这样一次袭击活动。


But when the attacker is a solitary individual – an American citizen, no less– it raises serious questions about the system from which he or she (though almost always a he in these cases) emerged.	但如果袭击者只是一个孤立的个体——而且居然还是美国公民——就严重质疑了他或她（虽然在类似情况下袭击者几乎无一例外是男性）背后的制度。


According to some press accounts, Abdulazeez felt a sense of failure at his inability to meet America’s standard of success, of which money is the primary measure.	据某些媒体报道，阿齐兹因无力达到美国的成功标准而产生某种失败感，而美国成功与否主要靠金钱来衡量。


Though he did not appear deeply religious, he allegedly praised the late Anwar al-Awlaki, a US-born al-Qaeda cleric and an advocate of attacks on “hypocritical” America, as a model of triumph over failure.	虽然阿齐兹并不笃信宗教，但据说他曾称颂已故的安瓦尔·奥拉基是战胜失败的典范，后者是一位美国出生的基地组织神职人员，大肆倡导攻击“伪善”的美国。


Another question about the US system stems from the refusal of Abdulazeez’s health insurer to approve his participation in an in-patient drug and alcohol program.	有关美国制度的另一项质疑源于阿齐兹的医疗保险公司拒绝批准他参与住院药物酒精计划。


This is far from the first time the US has experienced a mass murder by someone whose mental-health issues, including addiction, had been overlooked.	因为心理健康问题、包括成瘾人员被忽视而酿成大规模屠杀在美国已经不是第一次。


Does this reflect a systemic failure?	这是否反应了系统性失败？


More fundamentally, does it controvert America’s principles?	更重要的是，这是否有悖于美国的原则？


Rather than considering such questions, the US remains focused on the external scourge of Islamic terrorism.	但美国仍然专注于伊斯兰恐怖主义的外来祸患，而并未对这些问题进行思考。


Kennan recognized this tendency decades ago, when he warned that shortsighted policies at home and abroad had already put America in a vulnerable position.	凯南数十年前就已经意识到上述趋势，并警告国内外短视政策已经让美国容易受伤。


Instead of basking in its own superiority, he advised, the US should learn from the mistakes of its enemies, including Russia.	他建议美国不应沉醉于自己的优势，而应从包括俄国在内的敌人的错误中吸取教训。


In the 2000s, Kennan compared the Bush administration’s “global war on terror” to Russia’s wars against Chechen separatists in the North Caucasus.	2000年，凯南将布什政府的“全球反恐战争”与俄罗斯对北高加索地区车臣分裂分子的战争进行了比较。


When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s first president, promised its subjects “as much sovereignty as they can swallow.”	1991年苏联解体时，俄罗斯首任总统叶利钦承诺其臣民“想要多少主权就会得到多少” 。


The Chechens, who had sought independence from Russia for centuries, took this promise as an opportunity for self-determination.	数百年来一直试图从俄国独立的车臣人将他的承诺当作实现自决的机会。


But Yeltsin, unwilling to lose any more territories after the Soviet Union’s initial breakup, reneged on his pledge.	但叶利钦因为不愿在苏联最初解体后失去更多领土而违背了自己的承诺。


In 1993, the first Chechen war erupted.	1993年，第一次车臣战争爆发。


Russia managed to defeat the separatists and maintain control over Chechnya.	俄罗斯成功击败了分裂分子并继续控制车臣。


But it was a Pyrrhic victory, given that it drove many disillusioned and angry Chechens toward religious fundamentalism.	但这是一次得不偿失的胜利，因为它使许多幻想破灭的愤怒的车臣人转变为宗教原教旨主义者。


As a result, when the second Chechen war began in 1999, the fight was no longer just about Chechen independence from Russia; it was a fight for Islam, waged against Christians everywhere.	结果当1999年第二次车臣战争爆发时，战争不再只为争取独立，而演变为伊斯兰对基督徒的全面战争。


Russia, under Yeltsin’s successor, Vladimir Putin, defeated the separatists again, restoring federal control over the territory.	俄罗斯在叶利钦的继任者普京领导下再次打败了分裂主义者，恢复了对该地区的联邦控制。


Fifteen years later, Chechen extremists are fighting alongside the Islamic State.	15年后，车臣极端分子和伊斯兰国势力同流合污。


One might object to comparing America’s desire to export democracy at the barrel of a gun to Russia’s imperial death spasms under Yeltsin and Putin.	有人可能会反对将美国用枪炮输出民主和俄国在叶利钦和普京治下的帝国死亡痉挛进行比较。


But, whether we like it or not, there is a strong parallel between them: both countries are perceived to be dictating to Muslims.	但无论我们愿意与否，两者之间都存在很强的相似关系：两国都被认为是在强行驱使穆斯林的意志。


And, in fact, it was Kennan who first drew my attention to this similarity, when in a private conversation about 9/11, he noted that, for many Muslims, Russia and the West were becoming indistinguishable.	事实上，在有关9/11的一次私人谈话中，是凯南最先就这种相似性引起了我的注意。 他指出对很多穆斯林而言，越来越难以分清俄罗斯和西方的区别。


Both were viewed as secular states antagonistic to Islam.	两者都被认为是敌视伊斯兰教的世俗国家。


Kennan warned that, just as the first Chechen war bred national and individual resentment, America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would only fuel more hatred and frustration – which would eventually blow back onto the US.	凯南警告正如第一次车臣战争孕育了国家和个人的不满，美国在阿富汗和伊拉克的战争只会助长更多的仇恨和挫折——而这最终会报应回美国。


“The failure to fit the system makes people attack that system,” he said, “so it is never wise to bomb nations to freedom.”	“无法适应让人们攻击这套系统，”他说，“因此靠炸弹争取自由永远都不是明智的选择。 ”


Containment, not Appeasement	遏制，而不是纵容


America and the world are focused on whether the Bush administration will adopt the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations for an exit strategy from Iraq.	美国和世界都在关注布什政府是否会按照伊拉克问题研究小组（Iraq Study Group）所建议的策略从伊拉克撤军。


That is the most pressing immediate question, but America’s leaders should also be thinking ahead.	这是目前最迫切需要解决的问题，但美国领导人还需要预先考虑未来。


America needs a post-occupation strategy for Iraq and the Middle East, one grounded in a viable national security strategy for the twenty-first century. That strategy is containment.	美国需要为伊拉克和中东地区制定后占领期策略，而这项策略必须以21世纪切实可行的国家安全政策为基础，那就是遏制。


In the run-up to the Iraq invasion, the Bush administration rejected containment as an obsolete Cold War hangover.	入侵伊拉克之前，布什政府把遏制看作过时的冷战后遗症而不予理睬。


The weapons inspectors were pulled out, and America opted for preemptive war.	武器核查人员被迫撤离，美国选择了先发制人地挑起战争。


Bush was portrayed as facing down a new Hitler with Churchillian resolve, and advocates of containment were accused of appeasement.	布什被描绘为以邱吉尔般的坚定意志与新的希特勒对抗，而遏制政策的宣传者则被斥责为姑息和纵容。


But now we know that the containment regime worked.	可现在我们知道遏制策略是有效的。


Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was in no position to threaten anyone, let alone the United States.	萨达姆·侯赛因统治下的伊拉克不会威胁到任何人，更不用说是美国了。


This was not the first time that containment – a strategy devised by George Kennan, the director of the US State Department’s Policy Planning Staff under President Harry Truman, in response to the Soviet threat after World War II – has been rejected as appeasement.	在哈利·杜鲁门（Harry Truman）任总统时担任美国国务院政策计划室（US State Department’s Policy Planning Staff）主任的乔治·凯南（George Kennan）最先提出了遏制策略，当时提出这项策略是为了应对二战结束后苏联所构成的威胁。 乔治·凯南所提出的遏制策略已经不是第一次被人斥责为姑息纵容了。


In the 1952 presidential election campaign, Dwight Eisenhower and his future secretary of state, John Foster Dulles, heaped scorn on containment, calling instead for a “rollback” of the Soviets in Eastern Europe.	在1952年的总统竞选中，德怀特·艾森豪威尔（Dwight Eisenhower）和他未来的国务卿约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯（John Foster Dulles）就曾对遏制策略嗤之以鼻，并号召要在东欧地区将苏联“彻底打垮”。


Fortunately, once in office, the Eisenhower administration had the sense to stick with containment in Europe, continuing a policy that is widely credited for winning the Cold War.	幸运的是艾森豪威尔政府在当政之后保持了理智，在欧洲继续推行遏制政策，使得现在被认为是为最终赢得冷战立下卓著功勋的遏制政策得以延续下去。


President John F. Kennedy’s insistence, against much advice, on containment during the Cuban missile crisis saved the world from nuclear war.	约翰·F·肯尼迪总统顶住了巨大的压力，在古巴导弹危机期间继续推行遏制政策，将全世界从全面核战争的边缘拯救回来。


This was calculated resolve, not appeasement.	这绝不是什么姑息纵容，而是经过冷静思考之后真正的坚决果敢。


Containment’s goal was to prevent Soviet expansion without saddling the US with unsustainable military obligations.	遏制的目标是要防止苏联的势力扩大，同时又不给美国造成无法承载的军事负担。


So long as the USSR did not stage a military attack, containment’s reliance on economic sticks and carrots, competition within the world communist movement, intelligence and diplomacy, and promoting the vitality of the capitalist democracies would guarantee security.	只要苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟（USSR）不首先发动军事袭击，那么遏制政策就能靠经济大棒和胡萝卜、靠世界共产主义运动的内部矛盾、靠情报和外交手段、靠焕发资本主义民主国家的内部活力来保证我们的安全。


Kennan was right: the dysfunctional features of Soviet system, and its over-extension internationally, would lead to its demise.	凯南是对的：运行失衡的苏联政治制度，再加上它在国际上的过度扩张，最终必然导致苏联的毁灭。


When containment has been abandoned, America has paid a high price.	每当遏制政策被弃之不用，美国就会付出高昂的代价。


The Eisenhower administration toppled Iran’s elected government in 1953 believing it to be too pro-Soviet.	艾森豪威尔政府在1953年推翻了伊朗的民选政府，理由是认为这个政府过于亲苏。


The hugely unpopular Shah they installed was swept away in the Islamic revolution in 1979.	他们在推翻原有政府之后培植的国王根本得不到伊朗民众的认可，在1979年的伊斯兰革命运动中被赶下台。


America made comparable errors in Guatemala and elsewhere in Latin America.	美国在危地马拉和拉美其他地方也犯下了相似的错误。


Vietnam was America’s costliest departure from containment.	美国悖离遏制策略的教训尤以越南最为惨重。


As Kennan explained, when America goes to war over something less than a vital interest, the adversary – for whom vital interests are at stake – will fight long after the war has become too unpopular at home to sustain.	就像凯南所说的那样，美国发动战争时并不是为了自己的核心利益，但对手的情况却恰恰相反，因此我们的对手一定会英勇奋战，一直到战争由于持续的时间过长而在美国民众中失去支持。


Bush repeated this mistake in Iraq.	布什在伊拉克再次犯下了这样的错误。


Containment is hardly a relic of the Cold War.	遏制绝不是冷战的后遗症。


It worked against Libya, leading Muammar Khadafi in the late 1990’s to stop sponsoring terrorism, turn over the Lockerbie bombers for trial, and pay compensation to British and French victims of Libyan-sponsored terrorism.	遏制在利比亚发挥了作用，成功地在20世纪90年代制止了卡扎菲（Muammar Khadafi）继续支持恐怖主义，将洛克比空难的制造者交出受审，并向在利比亚制造的恐怖主义活动中丧生的英法公民做出赔偿。


Claims that he abandoned his nuclear program in response to the US-led invasion of Iraq have been refuted by Flynt Leverett, director for Middle Eastern affairs at the US National Security Council from 2002 to 2003.	卡扎菲由于美国入侵伊拉克而放弃核计划的说法遭到了弗林特·莱弗里特（Flynt Leverett）的驳斥，莱弗里特在2002到2003年间担任美国国家安全委员会中东事务部主任。


According to Leverett, Khadafi’s decision predated the invasion and was a response to an explicit quid-pro-quo to end international sanctions against Libya.	按照莱弗里特的说法，卡扎菲早在伊拉克战争开始前就已经做出了决定，而且他做出这样的决定显然是对结束对利比亚国际制裁的一种补偿。


Containment against Libya was not appeasement.	遏制利比亚绝非姑息纵容。


It should have been the model in Iraq, as it now should be the model in Iran.	美国在伊拉克就应该实行遏制政策，如今在伊朗也是同样的状况。


Instead, defenders of the contemporary equivalent of “rollback” advocate attacking Iran because it is developing nuclear weapons.	但与此形成鲜明对照的是，现代“击溃”政策的捍卫者拼命要求打击伊朗，理由是伊朗在制造核武器。


This makes about as much sense as it would to attack China in the 1950’s.	这和20世纪50年代鼓吹对华作战一样愚蠢可笑。


One of Kennan’s great insights was that the US is well served by conflict among America’s adversaries.	对手之间的冲突能让美国坐收渔利，这是��南最精辟的见解之一。


He welcomed Tito’s rise in Yugoslavia as an internal challenge to Moscow’s hegemony that he hoped others would emulate.	他欢迎铁托在南斯拉夫的崛起，并希望其他国家能够竞相仿效，因为惟其如此才能从内部挑战莫斯科的霸权。


This lesson is lost on the Bush administration, which senselessly alienated Iran in 2002, when moderates had the upper hand there and were cooperating in Afghanistan, and reversed decades of US policy by insisting that any Middle East settlement must accept changed “realities on the ground” in the West Bank.	布什政府忘记了凯南的教诲，它2002年对伊朗的孤立没有任何意义。 当时温和派在伊朗仍然占据上风，伊朗在阿富汗也仍然与美国进行着合作。


The administration seems bent on herding adversaries together – transforming Samuel Huntington’s “clash-of-civilizations” dystopia into a self-fulfilling prophecy.	布什坚持中东和平方案必须接受西岸已经变化了“领土情况”，彻底改变了已经奉行了几十年的美国政策。 布什政府似乎决意要把对手驱赶到一起¾这种做法把塞谬尔·亨廷顿（Samuel Huntington）所描绘的“文化激烈冲突”的反面乌托邦变成了现实。


Kennan maintained that the US should work to create a world that no one can dominate, and that the best way to spread democracy is to demonstrate its superiority.	凯南坚持认为美国应努力建设一个没有霸权的世界，而宣传民主的最佳方法莫过于向世人展示民主的优势所在。


Ramming democracy down people’s throats is self-defeating.	强迫人们接受民主不可能取得成功。


Just as it produced a potent fusion of communism and anti-American nationalism in Southeast Asia and Latin America, it is now producing a similar combination of radical Islam and anti-American nationalism across the Middle East.	这种做法曾经在东南亚和拉美缔造出强大的共产主义和反美民族主义联盟，同样的做法如今又使中东地区产生了极端伊斯兰主义和反美民族主义的联合运动。


Terrorist groups can be minimized if their enabling states are contained.	只要遏制住恐怖主义宗主国就能遏制住恐怖主义运动。


Defenders of the Bush doctrine claim that this is impossible when they operate out of failed states that cannot police their borders.	布什教条的捍卫者声称自顾不暇、一片混乱的宗主国不能再给恐怖活动以任何的支持。


But, given that the Bush doctrine has compounded the failed-state problem, this is a bogus argument.	但由于布什教条使国家变得更为混乱，这样的说法从根本上站不住脚。


However many failed states there were in the world before America invaded Iraq, there is one more now.	无论美国入侵伊拉克前世界上有多少个国家陷入混乱，现在又多了一个混乱的国家。


To build a containment regime against terrorism emanating from the Middle East, a date for America’s departure from Iraq must be set.	要想建立中东恐怖主义的遏制机制，就必须确定美国从伊拉克的撤军日期。


There is no other way to reverse the widespread perception across the region that the US has imperial ambitions.	要想转变中东地区对美帝国主义野心的广泛猜测，除此之外再也别无他法。


The other essential step is to place resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict at the center of America’s foreign policy agenda.	另外一个关键性步骤是将解决巴以冲突放在美国外交政策安排的核心。


America must push for a solution that can garner the support of significant majorities of all the peoples between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.	美国必须全力推动能在约旦河和地中海间的广大土地上获得绝大多数民众支持的解决方案。


That is the surest means of protecting and promoting democracy.	那才是保护和促进民主最有效的方法。


The Right Stuff in Foreign Policy	外交政策的正确内涵


CAMBRIDGE – Some critics complain that US President Barack Obama campaigned on inspirational rhetoric and an ambition to “bend the arc of history,” but then turned out to be a transactional and pragmatic leader once in office.	美国剑桥—一些批评家批评美国总统奥巴马竞选时口号颇具鼓动性（inspirational），还提出了“弯曲历史之弓”的雄心，当选后却表现得事务（transactional）而现实（pragmatic）。


In this respect, however, Obama is hardly unique.	但是，在这方面，奥巴马并不是绝无仅有的。


Many leaders change their objectives and style over the course of their careers.	很多领导然在职业生涯中会改变他们的目标和风格。


One of the great transformational leaders in history, Otto von Bismarck, became largely incremental and status quo-oriented after achieving the unification of Germany under Prussian direction.	历史上最伟大的变革型（transformational）领袖——俾斯麦在实现普鲁士领导下的德国统一后变得渐进（incremental）而现实导向。


Likewise, Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s foreign-policy objectives and style were modest and incremental in his first presidential term, but became transformational in 1938 when he decided that Adolf Hitler represented an existential threat.	类似地，富兰克林·罗斯福的外交政策目标和风格在其第一个任期内是温和而渐进的，但在1938年认定希特勒代表了外部威胁后成为变革型。


Transactional leadership is more effective in stable and predictable environments, whereas an inspirational style is more likely to appear in periods of rapid and discontinuous social and political change.	事务型领导在稳定而可预测的环境中更加有效，而鼓动风格更可能在快速而间断的社会和政治变化时期中出现。


The transformational objectives and inspirational style of a leader like Mahatma Gandhi in India or Nelson Mandela in South Africa can significantly influence outcomes in fluid political contexts, particularly in developing countries with weakly structured institutional constraints.	像印度的甘地和南非的曼德拉这样的具有变革型目标和鼓动型风格的领袖可以极大地影响不稳定的政治环境所产生的结果，特别是在制度性约束结构薄弱的发展中国家中。


By contrast, American foreign-policy formation is highly constrained by institutions like Congress, the courts, and the constitution.	相反，美国外交政策的形成受国会、法院和宪法等制度的高度约束。


Thus, we would expect less opportunity for transformational leadership.	因此，出现变革型领袖的机会更低。


But even the US Constitution is ambiguous about the powers of Congress and the president in foreign policy.	但即使是美国宪法，对国会和总统在外交政策方面的权力也语焉不详。


At best, it creates what one constitutional expert called “an invitation to struggle.”	往好了说，它也只是某宪法专家所谓的“斗争邀请”。


Moreover, much depends on external conditions.	此外，外部条件的影响力很大。