Today, as France engages the progressive forces of the “Arab Spring” – politically, if not militarily, as in Libya – can it continue to maintain a hypocritical stance towards Algeria, paying a high price in credibility for continuing its silence about the past?	如今随着法国参与到“阿拉伯之春”的进步力量之中——即便不是像在利比亚那样大动干戈，但至少是在政治上——它还能在阿尔及利亚问题上板着一副伪君子的面孔，宁愿以牺牲国家信誉的高昂代价来对自己的过去保持沉默？


In terms of forgiveness, it is the strongest party that must apologize first.	在宽恕方面，法国国内最强大的党派理应带头道歉。


And democracy is an essential component of that strength, for it constitutes the most favorable ground for a responsible pedagogy of historical honesty.	而民主制度则是这具备一力量的必要条件，因为它为一个负责任的历史真相教育提供了最有利的基础。


Of course, one should not entertain too many illusions.	当然，一个人不应沉浸在过多的假象之中。


The current Algerian government is quite comfortable denouncing France, and might continue to do so regardless of anything that the former colonial power does or says.	当前的阿尔及利亚政府时常贬低法国来提升自己，甚至不管这个前殖民宗主国如何作为，都将依然故我。


But that should not serve as an alibi for doing nothing.	但这不能成为法国无动于衷的借口。


In July 2012, France and Algeria will commemorate the 50th anniversary of the birth of the Algerian Republic.	在2012年7月，法国和阿尔及利亚将举办庆祝阿尔及利亚共和国成立50周年的庆典，而这场庆典恰好是在法国总统大选结束之后进行。


Coming immediately after the upcoming French presidential election, the event offers an ideal opportunity for Sarkozy or his successor to engage in a symbolic act of repentance.	这也为萨科齐或其继任者提供了一个绝佳机会去做出一个表示悔过的象征性行动。


Such a gesture would strengthen France both externally and in terms of the sentiments of its citizens of Algerian descent, whose difficulty in reconciling their dual identity has led some to turn to fundamentalist Islam.	这样一个姿态不但能在国际上提升法国形象，也能对其国内的阿尔利亚裔公民表达一种亲善态度，使他们不致在双重身份认同的矛盾纠结中倒向伊斯兰原教旨主义。


Repentance is not a sign of weakness.	忏悔并不是懦弱的表现。


On the contrary, it is a demonstration of tranquil and conscientious strength – and a precondition of good and realistic governance.	相反，这是一种平和而善良的力量，也是实现良好以及现实主义政治治理的前提。


Soulless Bodies	没有灵魂的躯体


The world’s leading scholar in artificial intelligence once described people as machines made of meat.	世界人工智能领域的大腕学者曾经将人类描述成肉做的机器。


This nicely captures the consensus in the fields of psychology and neuroscience, which tell us that our mental lives are the products of our physical brains, and that these brains are shaped not by a divine creator, but by the blind process of natural selection.	这种描述很好地抓住了心理学和神经系统科学领域的共识。 这些科学告诉我们，人的精神生命是我们物质大脑的产物，而这些大脑并不是由某位神圣的造物主创造的，而是盲目的自然选择的结果。


But, with the exception of a small minority of philosophers and scientists, nobody takes this view seriously.	但是，除了少数的哲学家和科学家而外，似乎没有人把这种观点当真。


It is offensive.	它令人愤怒。


It violates the tenets of every religion, and it conflicts with common sense.	它违背了每一种宗教的教义，也不符合人们的常识。


We do not feel, after all, that we are just material bodies, mere flesh.	毕竟，我们并不认为我们仅仅是物质的血肉之躯。


Instead, we occupy our bodies. We own them.	相反，我们主宰并拥有它们。


We are spontaneously drawn to the view defended by René Descartes: We are natural-born dualists, so we see bodies and souls as separate.	我们本能地接受笛卡尔所捍卫的观点：我们是天生的二元论者，所以在我们看来肉体和灵魂是分离的。


This dualism has significant consequences for how we think, act, and feel.	这种两元论极大地影响了我们的思想、行为和感觉。


The philosopher Peter Singer discusses the notion of a moral circle – the circle of things that matter to us, that have moral significance.	哲学家彼德·辛格论述了一种道德循环的概念—一些对我们具有重要道德意义的生物的循环。


This circle can be very small, including just your kin and those with whom you interact on a daily basis, or it can be extremely broad, including all humans, but also fetuses, animals, plants, and even the earth itself.	这个循环可以很小，只包括我们的亲朋好友和那些与我们每天打交道的人； 或者它也可以很大，不仅包括全人类，还包括胚胎、动物、植物甚至地球本身。


For most of us, the circle is mid-sized, and working out its precise boundaries – does it include stem cells, for instance? – can be a source of anguish and conflict.	对我们大多数人而言，这个循环是中等大小，界限分明—比如，它是否包括干细胞？ --能够成为痛苦和冲突的源头。


The nature of these boundaries is related to our common-sense view that some objects have souls and others do not.	这些界限的特点是与我们常识性的观点有关。 这样的观点认为有的物体是有灵魂的，而有的则没有。


If one attributes a soul to something, then it has value; if one sees something as a mere body, it does not.	如果什么东西被认为是有灵魂的，那么它就是有价值的； 如果什么东西被认为仅仅是个躯壳，也就没有了价值。


This is often explicit; historically, debates about abortion, for example, are often framed in terms of the question: When does the soul enter the body?	例如，历史上，人们对堕胎的观点总是针锋相对，也都是围绕着这样一个问题：灵魂是何时进入躯体的？


This reasoning can apply as well to how we regard adults.	这样的推理也适用于我们对成年人的看法。


Normally, when we interact with others we see them as both body and soul.	通常，当我们和他人打交道时，我们将他们看作是灵与肉的结合体。


We appreciate that they have beliefs, desires, and consciousness, and we recognize that they are solid physical things that take up space and are subject to gravity.	我们欣赏他们拥有信仰、欲望和良知，同时也承认他们是固体的物质生物，占据一定的空间并受到重力的约束。


Both stances coexist well enough in the normal course of things. But when we emphasize one perspective over another, there are moral consequences.	两种立场在通常状态下都相安无事。 可一旦我们强调其中的某一个观点，就会造成道德后果。


Social psychologists have shown that simply getting an experimental subject to take another person’s perspective will make the subject care more about the person and be more likely to help.	社会心理学家们发现仅仅让试验对象接受另外一个人的观点，就会让该对象更加关注他人，且更乐于提供帮助。


Focusing on the soul, then, leads to moral concern, and can expand the moral circle.	因而，集中注意力在灵魂上，就会带来道德关注，并可能扩大道德循环。


The opposite can occur when someone is viewed solely as a body, and one emotion that supports this outcome is disgust.	与之相反，当某人被认为仅仅是具躯体，则这一结果就会引发厌恶情绪。


The psychologist Paul Rozin has shown how disgust, as Charles Darwin first noted, is an evolutionary adaptation that deters us from bad meat, so it is naturally triggered by animals and animal waste products.	心理学家Paul Rozin展示了厌恶（正如达尔文起初所注意到的那样）是一种让我们不至于食用腐肉的进化改变。 因此这种情绪是由动物及其排泄物自然引发的。


But disgust can readily extend to people.	然而，厌恶可以轻易地被延伸到人的身上。


People, after all, are made of meat.	毕竟，人也是血肉之躯。


Hence, every movement designed to stigmatize or malign some group – Jews, blacks, gays, the poor, women, and so on – has used disgust.	因此，每一次旨在诬蔑和诽谤某个团体—犹太人、黑人、同性恋者、穷人、女人，等等—的运动都使用了厌恶。


Once a group of people is viewed as disgusting, attention shifts away from them as moral individuals.	一旦某个人群被认为是令人厌恶的，人们就不会将他们作为有道德的个体来关注。


They become soulless bodies, and the moral circle closes in to exclude them.	他们就成为了行尸走肉，被排除在道德循环之外。


Our reaction to soulless bodies is well illustrated in a story told about Descartes after he died.	我们对没有灵魂的躯体的反应可以通过在笛卡尔死后传出的，关于他的故事中得到很好的刻画。


It was known that Descartes had an illegitimate daughter, Francine, who died when she was five years old.	众所周知，笛卡尔有一个私生女，弗朗辛，在五岁时就死了。


According to the story, Descartes was so struck with grief that he created an automaton, a mechanical doll, built to appear identical to his dead daughter. The two were inseparable.	在这个故事中，笛卡尔悲痛欲绝，以至于他制造了一个机器人，一个与他死去的女儿在外表上似乎完全相似的机器玩偶，并与之不离不弃。


When Descartes crossed the Holland Sea, he kept the doll in a small trunk in his cabin.	当笛卡尔乘船穿越荷兰海（Holland Sea）时，他将玩偶放在船舱里的一个小箱子里。


Curious about the contents of the trunk, the captain of the ship crept down to Descartes’ cabin one night and opened it.	在好奇心的驱使下，船长晚上潜入船舱，打开了行李箱。


To his horror, the robot Francine arose.	弗朗辛机器人赫然出现，吓得他魂飞魄散。


The captain, struck with revulsion, grabbed her, dragged her up to the deck of the ship, and threw her overboard.	这位船长在极度的厌恶中，抓起她，拖到船甲板上，并扔进了大海。


This story captures how disturbing – in some cases, revolting – we find a body without a soul, and it embodies the emotional pull that our common-sense dualism often has.	这个故事充分说明了一具没有灵魂的躯体是多么的令人不快—有时甚至令人厌恶。 它也表现了我们常识性的二元论所拥有的张力。


But it also raises a serious problem.	但它同时也提出了一个严肃的问题。


Science tells us that common-sense dualism is wrong.	科学告诉我们这种两元论是错误的。


There is no consensus as to precisely how mental life emerges from a physical brain, but there is no doubt that this is its source.	在物质大脑如何产生精神生命的问题上，科学家们还没有共识。 但大脑无疑是精神生命的源头。


Thus, if a “soul” means something immaterial and immortal, then it does not exist.	因此，如果“灵魂”意味着非物质和不朽，那么它就是不存在的。


All of us are soulless bodies, no less than the robot Francine.	我们所有人都是没有灵魂的躯体，比弗朗辛机器人强不到哪里去。


This is perhaps the main reason why the scientific rejection of dualism may be so hard to swallow: it seems to diminish the moral status of people.	这可能就是为什么对两元论的科学拒绝让人如此难以接受的原因：它似乎贬低了人类的道德地位。


If we are to accept scientific facts, we need to construct morality on a new foundation, one without souls.	如果我们要接受科学的事实，我们就需要在一个新的，没有灵魂的基础上建立道德。


Reigniting South African Growth	重振南非增长


JOHANNESBURG – A paradox of Sub-Saharan Africa’s rapid economic expansion is the fact that the region’s most sophisticated economy seems not to be part of it.	约翰内斯堡—撒哈拉以南非洲经济迅速扩张的一个悖论是，该地区最成熟的经济体似乎不在扩张范围内。


Since 2008, South Africa has recorded average annual GDP growth of just 1.8%, less than half the rate of the previous five years.	自2008年以来，南非平均年GDP增长只有1. 8%，比此前五年的增长率低了一半多。


The International Monetary Fund expects output in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa to grow at a rate of close to 5% next year, but South Africa is projected to manage little more than 1% growth.	国际货币基金组织（IMR）预计，明年南非经济增长率很难达到1%，而撒哈拉以南非洲其余国家将接近5%。


More worrying still, the country’s unemployment rate – at over 25% – is one of the highest in the world.	更令人担忧的是，南非失业率——高达25%以上——为世界最高水平之一。


South Africa needs to reclaim the economic initiative, by – literally – building the Africa of the future.	南非需要通过打造真正的未来非洲重振经济。


Countries across the continent are racing to construct the roads, ports, power stations, schools, and hospitals they will need to sustain their growth and meet the needs of their fast-growing and urbanizing populations.	非洲各国正在竞相建设道路、港口、电站、学校和医院，它们需要这些基础设施保持增长、满足快速膨胀的城市化人口的需要。


And what they need most of all is expertise.	而它们最需要的乃是专家。


But while South Africa has highly capable architecture, construction, and engineering sectors, its current share of foreign-built projects in Sub-Saharan Africa stands at only 7%, compared to 32% for China.	而尽管南非十分擅长建筑、建设和工程等喊个，但其目前占撒哈拉以南非洲外国建设项目的比重只有7%，中国站32%。


According to the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), a coordinated effort by South African construction firms, banks, financial institutions, and government ministries – in partnership with their counterparts in other African countries – could triple this share, potentially creating 80,000 new domestic jobs from exports of construction services by 2030.	据麦肯锡全球研究所（MGI）的数据，南非建筑企业、金融机构和政府部门的共同努力——与其他非洲国家的同道合作——可以将这一比重提高两倍，在2030年前有望创造80,000个本国建筑服务出口工作岗位。


The opportunities are not limited to the construction industry.	机会不仅限于建筑业。


South Africa has the know-how to meet Africa’s burgeoning need for a wide range of services, from banking and insurance to retail and transport.	南非拥有满足非洲对各种服务的兴旺需求所需要的知识，包括银行业、保险业、零售业、交通业等。


The country currently provides only 2% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s service imports – a market worth some $40 billion annually.	目前，南非只占规模高达每年400亿美元的撒哈拉以南非洲服务业进口的2%。


The contrast with other regions’ economic leaders is telling.	与其他地区经济领导者的对比很能说明问题。


Brazil provides 26% of Latin America’s service imports, and the United Kingdom provides 19% of Europe’s.	巴西提供了拉丁美洲26%的服务业进口，英国提供了欧洲19%的服务业进口。


South Africa is home to several well-established, innovative banks that are well placed to offer low-cost, digital services to millions of currently unbanked African households and businesses.	南非是多家老牌创新银行的总部所在地，十分有利于为数百万目前难以获得银行服务的非洲家庭和企业提供低成本数字服务。


Indeed, South African banks already command a 12% share of Sub-Saharan Africa’s banking market (outside their home country); with the regional market growing by more than 10% per year, they could nearly double this share by 2030.	事实上，南非银行已占撒哈拉以南非洲银行业市场的12%（不含本国部分）； 而该地区市场每年增长10%以上，到2030年，这一比例有望接近翻番。


The potential is just as promising in insurance.	保险业也同样大有前途。


South Africa has a highly developed insurance sector, with a long history of creating products for every demographic and income level.	南非拥有高度发达的保险业，长期以来一直提供各种人口和收入水平的创新产品。


It is ideally placed to provide insurance to the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, where just 1% of households have insurance of any kind.	南非十分适合为撒哈拉以南非洲其余国家提供保险，目前该地区只有1%的家庭拥有保险。


South Africa also has been punching below its weight in merchandise trade.	南非在商品贸易方面的地位也不相称。


It should be playing a much more active role both in meeting Africa’s demand for imports and in stimulating industrial and agricultural development across the continent.	它应该在满足非洲对进口品的需求以及刺激非洲工业和农业发展方面起到更加积极的作用。


The recently announced Tripartite Free Trade Area, which will create an integrated market across 27 African countries, is a major opportunity for South Africa and the rest of the region.	刚刚宣布成立的三方自由贸易区将建立一个27个非洲国家组成的一体化市场，这是南非和该地区其他国家的一个大机会。


That agreement could help South Africa triple its exports of agricultural goods.	这一协定将帮助南非将其农产品出口提高两倍。


It could also bring products from other African countries into South Africa’s strong supply chains and trade networks, benefiting the entire region.	它还能让来自其他非洲国家的产品进入南非强大的供应链和贸易网络中，惠及整个地区。


The key to reigniting South Africa’s economic growth is an ambitious regional strategy driven by government and business leaders working in partnership.	重振南非经济增长的关键是制定一个宏大的地区战略，由政府和商界领袖合作推进。


A massive scale-up of vocational education is particularly important, as this will provide young South Africans with the technical skills needed to support the expansion of export industries.	大规模扩大职业教育特别重要，这样才能让南非年轻人获得支持出口行业扩张所需要的技术技能。


Putting in place infrastructure to support growth – notably power generation, which currently lags demand – will also be crucial.	用基础设施支持增长——特别是目前落后于需求的发电——也很关键。


South Africa’s economic transformation since its transition to democracy two decades ago has been remarkable.	20年前，南非成为一个民主国家，此后的经济转型令人瞩目。


But its renaissance is in danger of running out of steam.	但南非的复兴有失去动力的危险。


Only by boldly seizing the initiative can South Africa put itself at the core of Africa’s economic renewal, and only by embracing its role as regional leader can it revitalize its own prospects.	唯有果断抓住机会，南非才能成为非洲经济复兴的核心，而唯有抓住其地区领导者的角色，才能重振其自身的前景。


South Asia at War	战时南亚


CAMBRIDGE – Last month’s terrorist assault in Mumbai targeted not only India’s economy and sense of security.	坎布里奇——上个月在孟买发生的恐怖袭击所针对的不仅仅是印度的安全和经济。


Its broader goal was to smash the India-Pakistan détente that has been taking shape since 2004.	它更广义的目标是要粉碎2004年以后缓和的印巴关系。


The attackers did not hide their faces or blow themselves up with suicide jackets.	袭击者并没有蒙住头面，也没有用自杀夹克把自己炸得粉身碎骨。


Anonymity was not their goal.	匿名并不是他们的目的。


They wanted to be identified as defenders of a cause.	他们希望自己捍卫的事业为公众所知。


Unless this cause is fully understood, and its roots revealed across the region, this attack may prove to be the beginning of the unmaking of South Asia.	除非这项事业得到充分的理解，而且所有的来龙去脉在地区内尽人皆知，否则今后的事态发展可能证明这次袭击只是南亚分裂过程的开始。


Regional conflict, involving all of the region’s states and increasing numbers of non-state actors, has produced large numbers of trained fighters, waiting for the call to glory.	涉及南亚所有国家和越来越多非国家组织的地区冲突产生了大批训练有素的战士，只要一声召唤，他们就会义无反顾地为事业献身。


Within both India and Pakistan, economic disparities and a sense of social injustice have created fertile ground for conflict.	无论在印度还是巴基斯坦，经济地位的不平等和社会的不公平现象都为冲突提供了肥沃的土壤。


The use and abuse of religious fervor, whether “jihadi” or “Hindu fundamentalist,” are striking at the roots of communal harmony across South Asia.	对宗教热情的利用和滥用，包括“圣战运动”或“印度原教旨主义”，都威胁到了南亚地区社会和谐的根基。


Much of the current trouble can be traced to Afghanistan, whose tragedy could never have remained confined within its designated borders.	当前混乱局面的根源可以追溯到阿富汗，那里曾经发生的悲剧影响永远也不可能被限制在指定的边境范围之内。


The dynamics of the region changed when the Afghan freedom fighters of 1980’s were converted into “mujahidin” through a criminal enterprise in which both the West and the Muslim world happily participated.	20世纪80年代当阿富汗自由战士通过西方和穆斯林世界都乐于参与的犯罪组织演化为“穆斯林游击队员”的时候，也就改写了南亚地区的发展史。


Pakistan, always insecure about India, became the hub of this transformation.	总是对印度感到惴惴不安的巴基斯坦成为这次转变的核心区域。


The West thought it had moved on after the fall of the Soviet empire, but the region – and increasingly the global community – continues to pay a heavy price for this unholy project.	西方本以为局势在苏联帝国解体之后已经取得了进展，但南亚地区——还有全球社会——都在继续为这个并不神圣的计划付出沉重的代价。


The ills of two decades in South Asia can be attributed to the Afghan jihad years: the rise of the Taliban, the dominance of Pakistani-sponsored religious fanatics within the Kashmir freedom movement, and the eventual spread of sectarian conflict within Pakistan.	南亚20年以来的痛苦和不幸可以归咎于阿富汗圣战时代：包括塔利班的崛起、受巴基斯坦援助的宗教狂热份子在克什米尔自由运动中占据主导地位，以及最终在巴基斯坦境内扩散蔓延的宗派冲突。


In Afghanistan, Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies sought “strategic depth” against India.	在阿富汗，巴基斯坦的军事和情报机构谋求对印度取得“战略纵深”。


Moreover, they wanted payback for India’s role in supporting the revolt in the 1960’s and 1970’s that led to Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan.	此外，他们希望就印度支持20世纪六七十年代致使孟加拉从巴基斯坦独立出去的叛乱行为进行报复。


India is not blameless here.	印度所扮演的角色也并非无懈可击。


It was pursuing a two-pronged strategy – making the argument that all was well in Kashmir (a blatant lie) and supporting ethnic confrontation in Pakistan.	它一直奉行双重策略——对外宣称克什米尔一切都好（这是个明目张胆的谎言），并在同时支持巴基斯坦境内的民族对立。


Violent intelligence wars between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) have become a brutal reality in South Asia.	巴基斯坦国内情报局（ISI）和印度调查分析局（RAW）之间无所不用其极的情报大战已经成为南亚地区一个残酷的现实。


Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET, Army of the Pure), a Pakistan-based militant outfit supporting insurgency on the Indian side of Kashmir, was a product of these years.	支持克什米尔地区印度一方叛乱的巴基斯坦军事机构虔诚军（LET）就是上述年代的产物。


According to Indian investigators, this group is implicated in the Mumbai attacks.	印度方面的调查显示，这个组织参与了孟买袭击。


Pakistan’s clampdown on its offices throughout the country essentially confirms this conclusion, though Pakistan is publicly demanding more evidence.	巴基斯坦取缔其在国内的所有分支机构实际上证实了这一结论，尽管巴基斯坦方面公开宣称还需要更多的证据。


LET was the armed wing of an Ahle-Hadith organization, a South Asian version of Saudi-style fundamentalism, whose purpose was to hit Indian forces in Kashmir.	虔诚军是阿尔勒·哈迪特（Ahle-Hadith）机构下属的武装组织，是沙特原教旨主义运动在南亚地区的翻版，以打击克什米尔的印度势力为目的。


Though the group was banned by former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf after the terrorist attacks on the United States of September 11, 2001, some of its operators went underground and others joined Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD, Party of Proselytizing) – an organization that runs religious educational centers and charities.	尽管该组织在2001年美国九一一恐怖袭击以后被前总统佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫下令取缔，但该组织有些成员转入地下，其他人则加入了达瓦慈善会（JuD，皈依党）——一个开办宗教教育中心和慈善机构的组织。


Given its established linkages with Pakistan’s intelligence outfits, the group was never targeted strongly.	由于与巴基斯坦情报部门有着千丝万缕的联系，该组织从未受到过强烈的攻击。


In fact, it was even involved in rescue operations on the Pakistani side of Kashmir after the devastating 2005 earthquake there.	事实上，该组织甚至参与了该地区2005年破坏性地震后克什米尔巴基斯坦一方的援救工作。


What Pakistan’s military strategists failed to realize was that groups like LET and JuD had local agendas as well – converting Pakistan into a theocracy.	巴基斯坦军事策略人士并未意识到像虔诚军和达瓦慈善会这样的机构同样抱有地区目的——这就是把巴基斯坦转化为一个神权国家。


Hafiz Saeed, the founder of LET and currently the head of JuD, once proudly argued that: “We believe in the Clash of Civilizations, and our Jihad will continue until Islam becomes the dominant religion.”	虔诚军创始人和现任达瓦慈善会领袖哈菲兹·萨伊德曾经骄傲地指出：“我们坚信文明的冲突，我们的圣战将一直持续到伊斯兰教占主导地位为止。 ”


JuD, along with many other like-minded groups, radicalized thousands of young Pakistanis.	达瓦慈善会与其他许多有类似想法的组织一道，使成千上万的巴勒斯坦青年开始信奉极端主义。


Through its web and print publications, it also routinely challenged the teachings of the Sufi mystics who originally brought Islam to South Asia by promoting pluralism and love for humanity.	透过网络和印刷宣传刊物，达瓦慈善会也对苏菲派神秘主义者的教义发起了常规的挑战，而正是后者通过推动多元化和对人类的博爱最早将伊斯兰教引入了南亚地区。


Even while demanding strong action against JuD, India must recognize that Pakistan is itself a victim of terror.	即便在要求对达瓦慈善会采取强硬措施的同时，印度也必须承认巴基斯坦本身也是恐怖主义的受害者。


Any military confrontation with Pakistan will only empower Pakistani radicals.	任何与巴基斯坦的军事对抗都只会增强巴基斯坦极端组织的势力。


India also needs to look inward, as anti-Muslim violence in Gujarat and the activities of Hindu fundamentalist groups have potentially created recruitment opportunities for Muslim extremists within India.	印度还需要从自身寻找问题，因为古吉拉特邦反穆斯林的暴力活动和印度原教旨主义团体的所作所为潜在地为穆斯林极端主义者在印度的发展壮大创造了机遇。


An amicable resolution of the Kashmir conflict will only help improve peace prospects in South Asia.	克什米尔冲突的友好解决只会有助于改善南亚的和平前景。


For Pakistan, a concerted and sustained effort against all extremist groups operating in the country is necessary.	对于巴方来讲，有必要对国内活动的所有极端主义团体展��持续性的协同打击。


Militants of all stripes must be decommissioned completely and transparently.	必须在公开情况下彻底解散所有宗教派别的军事份子。


Equally important for Pakistan is to expand and reform its public education system and improve basic services so that radical groups cannot lure young people into their educational and welfare networks.	拓展并改革公共教育系统并改善基础服务对巴基斯坦来讲同样重要，这样极端团体就无法引诱青年加入他们的教育和福利网络。


Otherwise, the status quo can gravely threaten Pakistan’s – and South Asia’s – future.	若非如此，目前的局势可能会严重威胁到巴基斯坦——以及南亚未来的局势。


Trade in a Time of Protectionism	保护主义时代的贸易


COLOMBO – As China’s economy slows and growth in the developed world remains anemic, governments across Asia are working to keep their economies on an upward trajectory.	科伦坡—由于中国经济减速和发达世界增长依然萎靡，亚洲各国政府正在努力保持经济的向上势头。


In Sri Lanka, where I am Prime Minister, the challenge is to find a way to accelerate our already steady economic growth.	在由我担任总理的斯里兰卡，挑战在于找到方法加快我们已经相当稳定的经济增长。


One thing is clear: We cannot expect the rest of the world to welcome our economic ambitions the way it once opened its arms to China’s rapid rise as an economic power or – in earlier decades – cheered on the growth of Japan and the so-called Asian Tigers, including South Korea.	有一件事是明确的：我们不能指望世界其他国家向曾经对中国快速崛起为经济强国敞开怀抱，或者在往前几十年，为日本和包括韩国在内的所谓的亚洲四小龙的高增长欢呼雀跃那样欢迎我们的经济雄心。


Today, we Asians are witnessing, on an almost daily basis, fierce political assaults on the tools and policies that have helped lift hundreds of millions of our citizens out of poverty.	如今亚洲人几乎每天都能看见曾经帮助数亿人摆脱贫困的工具和政策正在遭受激烈的政治抨击。


Indeed, this year, free trade appears to be the scapegoat of choice among the world’s assorted populists and demagogues.	事实上，今年自由贸易被各路民粹主义者和煽动家作为替罪羊。


In the United States’ presidential election campaign, for example, the leading candidates in both the Republican and Democratic primaries have questioned the wisdom of seeking greater openness in world trade.	比如，在美国总统选战中，共和党和民主党初选的领先者都质疑寻求更加开放的世界贸易的合理性。


In the United Kingdom, euroskeptics campaigning for the country to leave the European Union denigrate the benefits of the single European market.	在英国，欧元怀疑派正在煽动英国脱离欧盟，诋毁欧洲单一市场的好处。


Elsewhere in Europe, populists are demanding that the drawbridges of trade be raised.	在欧洲其他国家，民粹主义者正在要求建设贸易壁垒。


Open trade is under attack even in parts of Asia.	即使在一些亚洲国家，开放贸易也在受到抨击。


Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had to drag some of his country’s special-interest groups kicking and screaming into the Trans-Pacific Partnership.	日本首相安倍晋三必须“搞定”死活不愿加入跨太平洋合作伙伴关系的的特殊利益集团。


Similarly, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been unable to convince state governors to lower trade barriers within the country.	类似地，印度总理莫迪一直无法说服各邦降低国内贸易的壁垒。


And in Sri Lanka, the “economic and technology agreement” that my government recently planned to sign with India, in order to bring about greater economic integration, has come under ferocious political attack.	而在斯里兰卡，我的政府最近为了实现更大的经济一体化计划于印度签署的“经济和技术协议”也遭到了猛烈的政治抨击。


For the most part, however, Asia’s political leaders retain a very positive view of the benefits of open trade.	但是，在绝大部分地区，亚洲政治领导人对开放贸易的好处持非常积极的平价。


After all, much of the past four decades of robust growth can be attributed to the fact that world markets were receptive to Asian goods.	毕竟，过去四十年的强劲增长很大一部分要归因于世界市场接受亚洲商品这一事实。


All we needed to do to get our economies growing, it seemed, was to identify our comparative advantage, produce quality goods at competitive prices, and then export as much as we could.	看起来，要想让经济增长，我们需要做的只是认识到我们的比较优势，以具有竞争力的价格生产高质量商品，然后尽量多地出口。


For decades, this model worked extraordinarily well, and China, Japan, South Korea, and the countries of Southeast Asia benefited greatly from it.	几十年来，这一模式表现十分出色，中国、日本、韩国和东南亚诸国都从中获益良多。


Even today, with world trade in the doldrums, regional trade remains a key component of these countries’ growth strategies.	即使在世界贸易一片萧条的今天，地区贸易仍然是这些过增长战略的关键要素。


In South Asia, however, we have been much slower to take advantage of the opportunities that can arise from more open trade – with regrettable consequences: The region is home to 44% of the world’s poorest people.	但是，在南亚，我们在利用更加开放的贸易所能带来的机会方面大大落后了，并且结果令人遗憾：南亚地区住着世界最贫困人口的44%。


We have an obligation to try to use trade to lift our people out of poverty.	我们有义务尝试通过贸易将人民带出贫困。


But with free trade rapidly becoming a global bugbear, the window for generating growth by tapping into world markets appears to be closing quickly.	但自由贸易正在日益成为全球性的“洪水猛兽”，通过加入世界市场制造增长的窗口正在迅速关闭。


If trade is to become a key driver of growth in Sri Lanka or elsewhere in the region, we will most likely have to generate it ourselves – by transforming South Asia from one of the world’s least economically integrated regions into one of its most integrated.	如果要让贸易成为斯里兰卡或地区内其他国家的关键增长推动力，我们很有可能必须自己制造贸易——通过将南亚从世界上经济一体化程度最低的地区转变为最高的地区。


Today, intra-regional trade accounts for just 5% of South Asia’s total trade, compared to 25% for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.	如今，地区内贸易大约占南亚总贸易的5%，而东盟国家为25%。


This vast untapped potential presents the region with an opportunity for growth that does not rely on the strength of the world economy.	这一巨大的未发掘潜能给该地区带来了无需世界经济坚挺的增长机会。


Last year, the World Bank estimated that annual trade between India and Pakistan could jump from $1 billion today to $10 billion – if tariffs and other barriers were slashed to levels recommended by the World Trade Organization.	去年，世界银行估计印度和巴基斯坦年贸易额可以从今天的10亿美元增加到100亿美元——如果关税和其他壁垒降低到世界贸易组织所建议的水平的话。


Tariffs and other needless restrictions hobble trade among all South Asian countries.	关税和其他不必要的限制阻碍着所有南亚国家之间的贸易。


These obstacles were supposed to be swept away with the establishment of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, the largest of all the world’s regional trading blocs, with close to two billion people.	这些障碍应该随着南亚地区合作联盟（South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation，SAARC）的成立而被扫除。 SAARC是全世界最大的地区贸易体，涵盖了近二十亿人。


But SAARC’s reliance on bilateral negotiations has slowed the process to a crawl, keeping the region much poorer than it needs to be.	但它依赖双边谈判，导致进展慢如龟速，该地区也蒙受不必要的贫穷。


If SAARC is to succeed, a new multilateral mechanism for cooperation will be needed.	SAARC要想成功，就需要新的多边合作机制。


As climate change takes its toll, the stakes will only get higher.	随着气候变化后果日益显现，代价也将越来越大。


Our still largely agrarian countries, with much of their territory in low-lying coastal regions, are dangerously exposed to rising sea levels and violent weather.	我们这些仍然主要依靠农业的国家，很大一部分领土位于低地势沿海地区，很��易受到海平面上升和极端天气影响。


Receding Himalayan glaciers will disrupt the lives – and livelihoods – of some 600 million people in Pakistan, Nepal, and northern India.	喜马拉雅山脉冰川的消融将摧毁巴基斯坦、尼泊尔和印度北部6亿人的生活和生计。


The political obstacles to effective action will be stiff.	有效行动的政治障碍代价高昂。


Indeed, there is political opposition to greater regional economic integration in every SAARC country.	事实上，每个SAARC国家内部都存在针对加强地区经济一体化的政治反对力量。


But the scale of the challenges facing the region should impel all of SAARC’s members toward greater cooperation.	但该地区所面临的挑战规模之大应该促使所有SAARC成员国进行更深层次的合作。


It is time for SAARC’s member governments to rise to the challenge.	SAARC成员国政府应该直面这一挑战。


By working together, we can lay the foundations of a regional economy as dynamic as that of our neighbors to the east.	通过齐心协力，我们能够为地区经济打好基础，让它向我们的东亚邻居一样充满活力。


South Asia’s Whispering Enemies	窃窃私语的南亚仇敌


ISLAMABAD – The leaders of the member countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation met last week in the Maldives for their 17th annual summit.	发自伊斯兰堡——上周南亚区域合作联盟（SAARC）在马尔代夫召开了第17届年度峰会，各成员国领导人均有出席。


Previous SAARC summits achieved little in the way of regional cooperation.	以往的SAARC年会在促进区域合作方面一般都鲜有进展。


If they are remembered at all, it is for the progress made in getting India and Pakistan to talk to each another.	唯一值得铭记的还是在促进印度和巴基斯坦两国交流方面的进展。


While this time was no different, there are growing signs of a thaw in relations.	而本次年会也不例外，各种迹象表明，两国关系正日渐升温。


Improvement in the India-Pakistan relationship – the main obstacle to greater economic cooperation in South Asia – has come whenever the two countries’ governments have agreed to work together to achieve a common good.	印巴关系一直是深化南亚经济合作的主要障碍，而当两国政府愿意为共同福祉展开合作的时候，也就是这种关系得到实质改善的时候。


That happened in 2004, when, after agreeing to initiate what they called a “composite dialogue” that would cover eight issues that had kept them apart for decades, India and Pakistan also agreed to work towards the creation of the South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA).	2004年曾出现过这样的曙光，当时两国政府不但同意开展“全面对话”，内容涵盖了导致两国隔阂数十年的八个议题，而且还同意共同创建南亚自由贸易区（SAFTA）。


Without such limited agreements, stasis in South Asia is the rule.	如果不是达成了这有限的几个协议，南亚将一直停滞不前。


SAFTA was launched in July 2006, but it did little to increase trade between India and Pakistan, which has barely developed since 1947, when the two countries fought the first of many trade – as well as real – wars against each other.	SAFTA于2006年7月正式启动，但在改善印巴双边贸易方面却收效甚微。 两国自1947年首次爆发贸易战（以及武装斗争）以来一直都纷争不断。


In November 2008, after a group of terrorists attacked Mumbai, India’s financial center, India accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack and suspended all dealings with its neighbor.	2008年9月，印度金融中心孟买遭到了一伙恐怖分子的袭击，事后印度指责巴基斯坦参与此次袭击并断然终止了所有贸易往来。


The composite dialogue was put on hold, with both sides unable to cast off the heavy burden of decades of hostility and intense rivalry.	由于两国都无法消除数十年积累下来的仇恨和强烈敌意，全面对话活动也被束之高阁。


Nevertheless, bilateral relations have warmed slightly over the past 18 months.	但在过去18个月中两国关系已经逐渐得到了改善。


The process began at a meeting in Bhutan between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India and Yousaf Raza Gilani, his Pakistani counterpart.	这个过程始于印度总理曼莫汉辛格和巴基斯坦总理吉拉尼在不丹的一次会议。


India agreed to begin talking again with its neighbor, accepting Pakistan’s argument that it, too, was a victim of terrorism.	印度同意与其邻国重新展开对话，承认巴基斯坦也是恐怖袭击的牺牲品。


Since that meeting, the two countries’ prime ministers have met four times, always on the sidelines of international gatherings. Their foreign ministers have met three times, and their commerce ministers once.	自那次会议以后，两国总理又借出席国际会议的契机进行了四次会晤，双方外长会晤了3次，商务部长也进行了一次会晤。


The Indians agreed to resume the suspended dialogue with Pakistan, despite the failure fully to resolve the Mumbai attacks legally, as well as Pakistan’s inability or unwillingness to move against the two domestically-based terrorist groups that India had accused of having masterminded those and several other attacks on its territory.	虽然印度无法循法律途径根本解决孟买袭击事件，而面对被印度指责策划了孟买以及其他几起恐怖袭击的两个恐怖组织，巴基斯坦方面也没有能力或不愿意与其翻脸，但印度最终还是同意重启双边对话。


The most important outcome of these renewed contacts was the Pakistani cabinet’s decision, on November 2, to grant India most-favored-nation (MFN) status in trade relations.	而双方再度合作的最重要成果就是促成了巴基斯坦内阁在9月2日决定给与印度在贸易最惠国待遇。


Under the rules of the World Trade Organization, MFN status should have been given after both countries became members.	根据世贸组织的规则，只有在成为世贸组织成员国之后才能给与最惠国待遇。


India granted Pakistan MFN status in 1996, but Pakistan held back, hoping to win concessions from India on the unresolved issue of Kashmir.	印度在1996年给与了巴基斯坦最惠国待遇，但巴基斯坦有所保留，并希望藉此赢得印度在克什米尔问题上的让步。


That, of course, did not happen, and Pakistan has at last changed its mind.	印度当然也没有屈服，而巴基斯坦也最终改变了主意。


What that implies is that trade with India will be conducted according to the same set of regulations and tariffs that govern other countries’ trade with Pakistan.	这意味着印巴之间的贸易与巴基斯坦与其他国家的贸易将适用同样的管理规则和关税。


India responded to Pakistan’s gesture by supporting its bid for membership of the United Nation’s Security Council, and by withdrawing its objections to the European Union’s grant of special privileges to Pakistani textile exporters.	对于巴基斯坦摆出的友好姿态，印度的回应是支持其竞选成为联合国安理会成员，并撤销对欧盟给与巴基斯坦出口纺织品特别优惠权的控诉。


So the Maldives SAARC meeting offered an opportunity for further easing of tensions.	因此在马尔代夫举行的SAARC年会为双方进一步缓解紧张关系提供了机会。


The summit started with a one-on-one meeting between the two countries’ prime ministers.	会议以两国总理的单独会面开始。


After an hour together, they emerged to tell the press that no new steps aimed at improving relations had been agreed upon.	在一个小时的会议后，他们向媒体通报双方未能就改善关系达成新的协议。


Gilani did, however, say that they had “discussed all core issues, including Kashmir,” and that they “hope the next round will be more constructive, more positive, and will open up a new chapter in the history of both countries.”	不过，吉拉尼指出他们“讨论了所有的核心议题，包括克什米尔问题……并希望下一轮对话会更具建设性，更有积极意义，并为两国历史开创新的篇章”。


Given that Pakistan’s relations with the United States are arguably at an all-time low, Pakistani leaders seem determined to lower the temperature on its disputes with other global powers, particularly India. Gilani extended another invitation to Singh to visit Pakistan.	鉴于巴基斯坦与美国的关系目前已经达到了历史的最低点，巴基斯坦领导人似乎决定减少与其他国家——特别是印度——的争端。


Singh, in keeping with past practice (he has received at least six invitations from various Pakistani leaders, starting with then-President Pervez Musharraf), remained non-committal, but showed warmth towards his Pakistani counterpart. “I always regard Gilani as a man of peace, and every time I meet him my belief is further strengthened,” he told the press.	吉拉尼再度邀请辛格访问巴基斯坦，而辛格则继续他过往的回应——自穆沙拉夫开始他已经收到了六次邀请——没有予以回应，却向媒体赞赏他的对手说“我一直都相信吉拉尼是支持和平的，而每与他见面一次，我的这个信念就增强一分”


More was expected from the SAARC summit than was achieved, owing in large part to the unmet expectations for the meeting between the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers on the sidelines of the main event.	鉴于印巴两国总理在年会间隙的会议没能满足期望，人们更多地期望SAARC年会上有更大的收获。


The “Addu Declaration,” issued after the conclusion of the meeting, promised small moves by the eight SAARC member states, rather than a breakthrough on matters such as the settlement of trade disputes, granting of transit rights, and encouragement of cross-border investments.	会后公布的“艾都宣言”仅仅是SAARC八个成员国承诺的一小步，远远未能在诸如贸易争端，跨境运输以及跨国投资等问题上取得突破性进展。


Enduring hostility between India and Pakistan, the region’s largest economies, remains the key barrier to such a breakthrough.	印巴这个两个该区域内最大的经济体的长期敌对一直是取得上述突破的主要障碍。


Neither Gilani nor Singh was certain of domestic public support for further warming of relations, so they played it safe, rather than displaying the bold leadership that the occasion demanded.	吉拉尼也好，辛格也罢，两人都无法确定本国人民是否支持改善双边关系，因此只能十分小心谨慎，而不是顺应当前的形势大胆作为。


Avoiding Conflict in the South China Sea	避免南海冲突


OXFORD – When a US Navy P8-A surveillance aircraft recently flew near Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, it was warned eight times by the Chinese Navy to leave the area.	牛津—最近，当中国海军P8-A侦察机飞越南沙群岛永暑礁附近时，遭到中国海军八次警告离开该区域。


Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that, “China’s determination to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity is as firm as a rock.”	中国外交部长王毅说：“中国捍卫国家主权和领土完整的决心坚如磐石。


US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter replied that, “[T]here should be no mistake about this: the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows us, as we do all around the world.”	”美国国防部长阿什顿·卡特（Ashton Carter）回答说，“这并没有什么错误：美国将进行国际法允许的飞行、航海和其他行动，我们在全世界都是这么做的。


So, is a US-China conflict in the South China Sea imminent?	”那么，美国和中国在南海起冲突已是迫在眉睫了吗？


In 1995, when I was serving in the Pentagon, China began building structures on Mischief Reef, which is claimed by the Philippines and lies much closer to its shores than to China’s.	1995年，我在五角大楼供职，当时中国刚开始建设美济礁。 美济礁是菲律宾宣布主权的岛礁，距离菲律宾海岸比中国海岸更近。


The US issued a statement that we took no position on the competing claims by five states over the 750 or so rocks, atolls, islets, cays, and reefs that comprise the Spratlys, which cover a vast area – 425,000 square kilometers (164,000 square miles) – of the South China Sea.	美国发表声明称我们对于五个国家在构成面积庞大的南海南沙群岛群岛（425,500平方公里）的750个左右的礁石、环礁、小岛、珊瑚砂和暗礁的竞争性主张不持立场。


We urged that the parties involved settle the disputes peacefully.	我们指出，涉及的各方应该和平解决争端。


But the US took a strong stand that the South China Sea, which includes important sea lanes for oil shipments from the Middle East and container ships from Europe, and over which military and commercial aircraft routinely fly, was subject to the United Nations Law of the Sea Treaty (UNCLOS).	但美国强烈要求南海问题需受联合国海洋法公约（UNCLO）约束。 南海是大量中东油轮和欧洲集装箱轮的重要航路，也是军用和商用飞机的常规航线。


To back up its territorial claim, China relies on a map inherited from the Nationalist period – the so-called “nine-dashed line,” which extends nearly a thousand miles south of mainland China and sometimes as close as 40 or 50 miles from the coastline of states like Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.	为了支持其领土主张，中国的依据是继承自国民党时代的地图——所谓的“九段线”。 九段线将中国领海扩到距离中国大陆以南近一千英里的地方，有时距离越南、马来西亚、文莱和菲律宾等国家的海岸线只有40到50英里。


All of these states claim the 200-mile exclusive economic zones granted under UNCLOS.	所有这些国家都主张UNCLOS所规定的200英里专属经济区。


When the dispute over Mischief Reef erupted, Chinese officials failed to clarify the meaning of the nine-dashed line, but, when pressed, they agreed that the dashes demarcated areas where China had sovereign claims.	美济礁纠纷爆发时，中国官员没有澄清九段线的含义，但是，在受到压力时，中国官员指出九段线划定了中国拥有主权的区域范围。


At the same time, they agreed that the South China Sea was not a Chinese lake, and that it was governed by the UN treaty.	与此同时，他们还指出南海不是中国的内湖，受联合国公约约束。


On this basis, the US and China avoided conflict over the issue for nearly two decades.	基于此，美国和中国在近二十年的时间里没有发生摩擦。


But China did not avoid conflicts with its maritime neighbors.	但中国没能避免与其海上邻国的冲突。


Although it pledged to adhere to a code of conduct negotiated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2002, it used its superior military might in disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam.	尽管中国承诺遵守2002年由东盟谈判确定的准则，但它在于菲律宾和越南的纠纷中使用了强大的军事力量。


In 2012, Chinese patrol vessels chased Philippine fishing boats away from Scarborough Shoal off the Philippine coast, and the Philippine government has taken the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), which China claims has no jurisdiction.	2012年，中国海监船驱赶菲律宾渔船离开菲律宾海岸外的黄岩岛，菲律宾政府将纠纷上诉至国际海洋法法庭（ITLOS），而中国宣称ITLOS对此不拥有司法管辖权。


In 2014, after China stationed an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam, ships from the two countries engaged in ramming and water-cannon battles at sea; anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam followed.	2014年，中国在越南主张主权的水域建立油井，双方船只在海上用水炮互相攻击； 越南更是爆发了反华骚乱。


The region’s smaller states sought American support.	该地区的小国寻求美国的支持。


But the US remained careful not to be drawn into the competing claims over sovereignty, some of which are tenuous, while on others China sometimes has a stronger legal position.	但美国仍保持谨慎，不愿被拖入主权纠纷——其中一些纠纷微不足道，而另一些纠纷有时候中国的法理更令人信服。


Moreover, the US had to focus on larger issues in its relationship with China.	此外，美国需要关注更大的对华关系问题。


This began to change when China initiated an active policy of dredging sand to fill in reefs and build islands in at least five locations.	当中国开始积极地在至少五个地方进行挖沙填礁造岛时，情况发生了改变。


Earlier this year, analysts released images of what is expected to be a 10,000-foot (3,000-meter) runway on Fiery Cross Reef.	今年早些时候，分析师公布了一组影像，永暑礁上似乎正在建设一条3,000米长的跑道。


The US argues that UNCLOS grants foreign ships and planes free access beyond a 12-mile territorial limit, while China claims that military flights cannot cross its 200-mile economic zone without its permission.	美国指出，UNCLOS授予外国船只和飞机自由进入12海里领海线以外区域的权利，而中国主张军用飞机不可在没有获得其允许的情况下飞越其200英里经济区。


If China claimed such a zone for each of the sites it occupies, it could close off most of the South China Sea.	如果中国对于每一个它所占据的据点都主张这样一个经济区，那么南海的大部分区域都将被覆盖。


As one US official put it, China seems to be trying to “create facts on the ground” – what Admiral Harry Harris, the US commander in the Pacific, calls a new “great wall of sand.”	一位美国官员说，中国似乎要“制造���实”——美国太平洋司令哈里斯海军上将（Admiral Harry Harris）称之为新的“沙长城”。


China correctly declared that it was within its sovereign rights to dredge, and that it was merely following the lead of its neighbors, whose governments had also been creating structures to bolster their claims.	中国正确地宣布疏浚活动属于其主权范围，它只是在效仿邻国——邻国政府早已开始进行建设以巩固主权。


But American suspicions were heightened by the fact that in 2013, in a separate dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands in the East China Sea, the Chinese government unilaterally declared an Air Defense Identification Zone without prior warning.	但美国的怀疑因为2013年的一个事实而加深：在中国和日本关于东海钓鱼岛/尖阁列岛的纠纷中，中国政府在不事先警告的情况下单方面宣布了防空识别区。


The US response was to fly two B-52 bombers through the unrecognized zone.	美国对此的反应是派出两架B-52轰炸机飞越其所不承认的区域。


This set a precedent for the recent naval reconnaissance flight (which had a team of CNN reporters on board).	这就是近的海军侦察飞行（由一组CNN记者随行）的先例。


The US response was designed to prevent China from creating a fait accompli that could close off large parts of the South China Sea.	美国的反应是为了阻止中国制造既成事实封锁南海大部。


Nevertheless, the original policy of not becoming embroiled in the sovereignty dispute continues to make sense.	尽管如此，不卷入主权纠纷的最初政策仍然有效。


The irony is that the US Senate’s failure to ratify UNCLOS means that the US cannot take China to ITLOS over its efforts to convert reefs into islands and claim exclusion zones that could interfere with the right of free passage – a major US interest.	讽刺的是，美国参议院不批准UNCLOS意味着美国不能因为中国填礁造岛并宣布与自由通行权（美国的一大利益）相悖的专属区而将中国诉诸ITLOS。


But, because China has ratified UNCLOS and the US respects it as customary international law, there is a basis for serious direct negotiation over clarification of the ambiguous nine-dashed line and the preservation of freedom of the seas.	但是，由于中国批准了UNCLOS并且美国也尊重其作为习惯国际法的地位，因此美国有基础要求与中国展开严肃的直接讨论澄清含义模糊的九段线、保护海洋自由。


With properly managed diplomacy, a US-China conflict in the South China Sea can and should be avoided.	如果能有管理合理的外交，中美南海冲突可以也应该避免。


Unlocking ASEAN’s Potential	解放东盟的潜力


SINGAPORE – Can ten countries with different cultures, traditions, languages, political systems, and levels of economic development act in concert to expand their collective potential?	新加坡—十个文化、传统、语言、政治制度和经济发展水平各异的国家能够齐心协力提升它们的集体潜力吗？


That is the question with which the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been wrestling for decades.	这就是纠缠了东南亚国家联盟（东盟）几十年的问题。


Judging by their leaders’ ambitious vision for cooperation, the answer may be yes.	从领导人宏大的合作愿景看，答案也许是肯定的。


What began as a straightforward push to reduce trade tariffs has evolved into a blueprint for a dynamic open market of 600 million consumers and a production base that can compete directly with the world’s largest economies.	一开始是一个旨在降低贸易关税的直接计划，后来演化为一个拥有6亿消费者、直接与世界最大经济体竞争的生产基地的有活力的开放市场的蓝图。


Once in place, the so-called ASEAN economic community (AEC) will transform Southeast Asia – and its role in the global economy.	实施之后，所谓的东盟经济共同体（AEC）将转变东南亚及其在全球经济中的作用。


ASEAN’s economic potential is undoubtedly impressive.	毫无疑问，东盟经济潜力令人印象深刻。


Taken together, the group’s members – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – would comprise the world’s seventh-largest economy.	加在一起，该集团成员——文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南——将构成世界第七大经济体。


Moreover, ASEAN’s international trade has almost tripled over the last decade.	此外，东盟国际贸易在过去十年中增长了近两倍。


And foreign-direct investment has been flowing into the region, with multinationals hoping to capitalize on its rapidly expanding middle class and strategic location at the intersection of China, Japan, and India.	外国直接投资也在源源流入该地区，跨国公司也想利用这里快速增加的中产阶级和位于中国、日本、印度中间的战略区位。


The AEC plan aims to build on this momentum by removing barriers to the movement of goods, services, capital, and people throughout the region.	AEC计划旨在消除商品、服务、资本和人员在全地区的流动壁垒，从而进一步增加动力。


The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) estimates that, by implementing this integration strategy fully and capturing a larger share of global manufacturing, the ASEAN countries could gain $280-625 billion in annual GDP by 2030.	麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute，MGI）估计，到2030年，完全实施这一一体化战略并赢得全球制造的更大份额可以让东盟国家每年增加2,800—6,250亿美元GDP。


Part of that growth stems from encouraging local companies to expand beyond their home markets.	如此增长部分来自鼓励本地公司冲出国内市场。


By making exporting more efficient and less costly – up to 20% cheaper, in some sectors – a wide range of goods and services would become attainable for millions of new consumers.	通过增加出口效率、降低出口成本——一些部门最高可以削减20%——多种商品和服务将能够走向数百万新消费者。


This could boost consumption across Southeast Asia, leading to a virtuous circle of growth.	这能够提振整个东南亚地区的消费，形成良性增长循环。


But ASEAN’s quest to become a unified market is far from complete.	但东盟形成统一市场的探索还远未结束。


While average tariff rates in the original five member states (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) have been virtually zero since 2010, some barriers must still be dismantled.	尽管最初五个成员国（印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国）的平均关税税率在2010年便已下降到几乎为零的水平，但仍有一些壁垒必须消除。


An MGI survey of regional businesses identified restrictions on foreign investment and ownership, inconsistent standards and regulations, and inefficient customs procedures as the biggest remaining barriers to trade.	MGI地区企业调查表明，外国投资和所有权限制、矛盾的标准和监管以及低效的通关流程是仍然存在的重大贸易壁垒。


Though full integration appears unlikely by ASEAN’s target date of 2015, lately the effort has been imbued with a renewed sense of urgency.	尽管东盟2015年完成完全一体化的目标看来难以实现，但最近新的紧迫感促使东盟加紧了努力。


As wages in China rise, Southeast Asian economies have a window of opportunity to become the next “factories to the world.”	随着中国工资的上升，东南亚经济体迎来了成为下一个“世界工厂”的机会窗口。


Of course, competing on the basis of low wages alone would be inadequate to raise living standards in the long term.	当然，建立在低工资一个基础上的竞争不足以在长期提高生活水平。


ASEAN will also need to compete on productivity – an area in which countries like Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam are currently at a disadvantage.	东盟还需要在生产率方面形成竞争力——在这方面，目前柬埔寨、印度尼西亚和越南处于劣势。


Excluding Singapore and Brunei, average labor productivity in ASEAN remains about 40% lower than in China.	剔除新加坡和文莱，东盟平均劳动生产率仍比中国低40%左右。


For ASEAN to become a real manufacturing powerhouse, its lower-income economies will need to focus on modernizing equipment and processes and building their workforces’ skills.	东盟要想成为真正的制造业强权，其收入较低的经济体需要关注设备和流程的现代化，并建设劳动力的技能。


They must also increase – and sustain – investment to address glaring infrastructure gaps and bring down high logistics costs.	它们还必须增加——并维持——投资以解决巨大的基础设施空白、抑制高企的物流成本。


Some critics insist that, even with such efforts, ASEAN members vary too widely in terms of their level of economic development to create a smoothly functioning single entity.	一些批评家认为，即使实施了这些措施，东盟也难以成为平稳运行的单一实体，因为成员国经济发展水平差异太大。


But ASEAN, unlike the European Union, is not attempting to form a monetary union.	但东盟与欧盟不同，它并不想形成货币联盟。


In fact, ASEAN’s focus on trade makes diversity an advantage, as companies seek to benefit from low-cost labor in some countries and intermediate manufacturing capabilities in others, all while gaining access to one of the world’s most sophisticated financial and logistics centers.	事实上，东盟集中关注贸易使多样性成为一种优势，能让公司从一些国家获得低成本劳动力，并将制造产能引入到其他国家，从中获得好处，与此同时还能进入世界最发达的金融和物流中心之一。


Though member states may sometimes have to compete with one another for market share and multinational operations, their areas of specialization would largely be complementary.	尽管成员国有时会相互竞争市场份额和跨国企业，但它们的专业领域总体来说是互补的。


ASEAN’s lower-income economies have expressed concern that they will miss out on many of the benefits of deeper integration.	东盟中收入较低的经济体表示担心它们会错失诸多深入一体化的好处。


But this does not have to be the case.	但未必会如此。


Mexico, for example, has arguably enjoyed greater economic benefits from the North American Free Trade Agreement than the United States or Canada has.	比如，墨西哥在北美自由贸易协定中获得的经济收益比美国和加拿大更大。


Nonetheless, this uneasiness reflects a central challenge facing ASEAN.	尽管如此，这一担心反映了东盟所面临的核心挑战。


From its inception, the group has fundamentally been a top-down project, driven by the region’s leaders instead of its people.	自成立以来，东盟从根本上就是一个自上而下的工程，背后的推动力是地区领导人而不是人民。


But, as member countries have become more democratic, solidifying public support has become increasingly important – meaning that ASEAN leaders must work to communicate the benefits of integration more effectively.	但是，随着成员国逐渐变得民主，巩固公众支持也变得越来越重要——这意味着东盟领导人必须努力以更有效的方式与民众沟通一体化的好处。


At the same time, ASEAN governments must urge businesses – many of whose leaders, according to MGI’s survey, have limited awareness of the opportunities that integration presents – to expand into neighboring markets.	与此同时，东盟各国政府必须敦促企业——根据MGI的调查，许多企业领导人对一体化所带来的机会认识有限——向邻国市场扩张。


Here, removing a handful of key administrative barriers could go a long way.	在这方面，消除一些重要行政壁垒大有裨益。


As it stands, restrictions on foreign investment and trade barriers continue to shield many domestic industries from competitive pressures.	事实表明，对外国投资的限制和贸易壁垒仍保护着许多国内行业免受竞争压力。


Now, ASEAN countries must decide whether to retreat into protectionism or reaffirm their commitment to a more open approach.	如今，东盟各国必须决定是倒退回保护主义还是重申更加开放的承诺。


Though the latter option would undoubtedly create winners and losers, it could also stimulate the region’s overall productivity growth.	尽管后一个选项毫无疑问会造成输家和赢家，但也能刺激地区总体生产率增长。


As a regional grouping, ASEAN does not have the kind of deep institutional ties and infrastructure links that bind together the EU’s members.	作为一个地区集团，东盟不存在将欧盟各成员国绑在一起的深刻的制度和基础设施联系。


Nor has it built the kind of seamless supply chains that funnel massive trade flows through North America.	东盟也没有建立起如同北美一样的引导巨大贸易流的畅通的供应链。


But, if ASEAN can execute the vision outlined in the AEC plan, it could exceed the sum of its parts.	但是，如果东盟能够执行AEC计划中所列出的愿景，就能形成整体大于部分之和的效果。


Southeast Asia’s Pakistan Problem	东南亚的巴基斯坦问题


MANILA -- Pakistan’s near political chaos, the result of President Pervez Musharraf’s declaration of martial law last year and the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, has had a tsunami-like impact across Southeast Asia.	马尼拉--巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫去年宣布实行戒严以及前总理贝布托遇刺身亡引发巴基斯坦政局混乱，在整个东南亚造成了海啸般的影响。


Should Musharraf’s government backslide even more on its commitments to restore parliamentary democracy, Pakistan’s crisis would not only be exacerbated, but it might begin to infect the wider region.	如果穆沙拉夫政府在其恢复议会民主的承诺上再次倒退，巴基斯坦的危机不仅会加剧，而且也可能会传播到更为广大的地区。


At direct stake today is Pakistan’s future, but its future may determine the political fates of neighboring countries that are also struggling with violent Islamic fundamentalism.	如今，巴基斯坦的未来息息相关，但是其前途可能决定其邻国的政治命运。 这些国家正在与暴力伊斯兰极端主义做斗争。


Will Pakistan be dragged along the path of Islamic extremism and emergency rule, or finally achieve modernity as a secular nation under civilian leadership?	巴基斯坦是否被沿着伊斯兰极端主义和紧急状态管治的道路上拖下去，还是最终实现现代化，成为民官领导下的世俗国家？


That choice matters as an example across Asia, because Pakistan has long been the traditional sanctuary of Al Qaeda and its Taliban cohorts, who hide in the inhospitable Pakistani-Afghani border region.	这一选择将会作为整个亚洲的范例而具有重大作用，因为巴基斯坦长久以来一直是基地组织及其塔利班同夥的藏身之地。 他们躲藏在巴基斯坦和阿富汗交界地带荒无人烟的地方。


These Islamic terrorists, with their global reach, could well tilt the balance from one extreme to the other in a number of countries.	这些伊斯兰恐怖分子的势力遍布全世界，他们或许会在几个国家中完全打乱平衡。


The fallout from Bhutto’s assassination was bound to reach beyond Pakistan’s borders.	贝布托遇害的影响肯定要超出巴基斯坦的范围。


The country’s mushrooming instability has triggered a bitter debate in the United States about the long-term viability of Musharraf’s military-backed government and whether US financial support for Pakistan should continue.	巴基斯坦局势动荡，山雨欲来，已经在美国引发了一场有关穆沙拉夫受军对支持的政府是否能够长久生存以及美国给巴基斯坦的财政援助是否应该继续的激励的辩论。


Now, however, is not the time to freeze out Pakistan, despite the seeming chaos.	但是，尽管看起来混乱不堪，现在还不是终结巴基斯坦的时候。


Last September, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, Al-Zawahiri, released videotapes calling for jihad in Pakistan and around the world.	去年九月，本拉登的副手扎瓦希里发布录像带呼吁在巴基斯坦和全世界进行圣战。


Bin Laden’s most recent threats have been equally universal.	本拉登最近的威胁也同样范围广泛。


Indeed, given extremist violence in Sri Lanka (Tamil Tigers), West Bengal (Naxalites), Bangladesh (Islamic fundamentalists), Southern Thailand (Islamic separatists), Java (Jemaah Islamiyah), and Basilan (Abu Sayyaf), the possibility that Al Qaeda and its satellites are plotting attacks elsewhere, especially against soft targets, poses a real danger to the region.	确实，鉴于斯里兰卡泰米尔猛虎组织、西孟加拉邦纳萨尔组织、孟加拉伊斯兰极端主义者、泰国南部伊斯兰分离主义者、爪哇回教祈祷团以及巴西兰岛阿布萨耶夫造成的极端主义暴力事件，基地组织及其附属同夥组织正在其他地方、特别是针对软目标策划袭击。 这对本地区构成了切实的威胁。


Regional leaders understand this.	地区领导人们理解这一点。


A year ago at their Cebu (Philippines) summit, the leaders of ASEAN adopted the “ASEAN Convention Against Terrorism.”	一年前东盟在菲律宾宿雾举办的峰会上，各国领导人通过了<<东盟反恐公约>>。 这一公约目的在于通过实行早期预警制度来防止恐怖行为；


The Convention aims to prevent the commission of terrorist acts by implementing early warning systems; the use of ASEAN members’ respective territories by those who finance, plan, facilitate, or commit terrorist acts; and movement of terrorists and terrorist groups by means of effective border control and identity/travel documentation.	防止那些资助、策划、协助或者实施恐怖行为的人使用东盟成员国的领土； 通过有效的边境管治以及身份和旅行文件来制止恐怖份子和恐怖组织的行动。


But cooperation against terror is easier said than done, given the region’s diversity of governance, culture, language, and religion, as well as ASEAN’s central policy of keeping out of non-interference in its members’ internal affairs.	但是，鉴于该地区政府、文化、语言和宗教各异，加之东盟不干涉成员国内部事务这一中心政策，反恐合作说起来容易做起来难。


This policy has enabled the group to remain united over the years, despite severe disagreements.	这一不干涉政策让东盟多年来尽管分歧严重但还是保持团结。


Where anti-terrorist planning is concerned, however, non-interference has become ASEAN’s biggest handicap.	但是，涉及到反恐规划的时候，不干涉原则已经成为东盟最大的障碍。


Yet to be forewarned of a weakness is to be forearmed.	但是，对弱点提前做出警告就是提前做好武装。


The first and crucial preventive step that any government can take in the face of a renewed Al Qaeda offensive in southeast Asia is fully to respect the creativity, mobility, technical expertise, and financial capabilities of suicidal groups.	任何政府在面临基地组织在东南亚卷土重来做出的第一个也是关键的防护性措施就是完全尊重自杀性团伙的创造力、机动灵活、技术专长以及财政能力。


Recall a letter from the convicted terrorist Ramzi Yousef, which was found in his Islamabad safe house after he was arrested in February 1995.	让我们看一看获刑入狱的恐怖分子优素福的一封信就知道了。 这封信是他在1995年2月被捕后在他的伊斯兰堡老巢里发现的。


Yousef seethed with resentment about the discovery of his “Bojinka” (explosives) cell in Manila the month before and vowed:	优素福对于上个月他在马尼拉的爆炸单元被人发现而咬牙切齿，并且发誓：


We will take the harshest of measures in order that all Filipino interests inside and outside the Philippines will be subject to destruction....Our measures will include assassinating prominent figures, foremost among them the Filipino President (RAMOS)....We also have the ability to use chemicals and poisonous gas against vital institutions, residential populations, and drinking water sources...	我们的手段将包括暗杀知名人物，最主要的是拉莫斯总统。 我们还有能力对关键机构、居民以及饮用水使用化学物质和毒气。


At the height of the Soviet-Afghanistan war in the 1980’s, Pakistan was the covert conduit for Filipino Muslim militants passing to and from Afghanistan and back to the island of Mindanao, which has long been a stronghold of Muslim rebels.	八十年代苏联在阿富汗战争最猛烈的时候，巴基斯坦是菲律宾穆斯林武装份子来往于阿富汗和棉兰老岛的秘密渠道。 棉兰老岛一直是穆斯林反叛者的据点。


Their experience in guerrilla warfare produced leaders such as the brothers Abdurajak and Khadaffy Janjalani who founded the terrorist Abu Sayyaf Group, which is now wrecking havoc in the Philippines.	他们在游击战中德经历产生了像阿布巴卡尔兄弟那样的领导人。 这对兄弟建立了阿布萨耶夫恐怖集团，这一集团现在在菲律宾造成巨大危害。


Indeed, just last November, a member of the Philippines’ Congress, Wahab Akbar, a Muslim representing Basilan, was killed with five others in front of the House of Representatives by an improvised explosive device of the type used in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq.	确实，就在去年11月，代表巴西兰岛的菲律宾议会穆斯林议员阿巴尔和其他五人在众议院门前被炸身亡。 这一拼装的爆炸装置与在巴基斯坦、阿富汗和伊拉克使用的是同一种类。


His death should serve as a warning to all Southeast Asian governments: we must fight Al Qaeda together, or we shall lose to them separately.	他的遇刺身亡对于所有东南亚政府都是一个警告，那就是，我们必须共同打击基地组织，否则我们就会被他们各个击破。


Southeast Asia’s Widening Arms Race	东南亚日渐高涨的军备竞赛


Southeast Asia’s return to prosperity since the financial crisis of 1997 has brought a region-wide splurge on new weapons.	东南亚在1997年金融危机后重归繁荣引发了该地区在新武器方面的炫耀风潮。


Most Southeast Asian countries are, indeed, now busily modernizing their armed forces.	大多数的东南亚国家都正忙于武装军队的现代化。


So far, most have done so without compromising their autonomy in security matters.	到目前为止，大多数国家都已经在不牺牲安全事务方面的自治权的情况下做到了这一点。


But, with China’s military build-up causing nervousness everywhere, many governments in the region are starting to work with outside powers.	但随着中国军事扩张在各国制造紧张气氛，该地区许多国家的政府正着手与其他强国合作。


Indonesia’s President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has perhaps been the most assertive.	印尼总统尤多约诺可能是其中最突出的一位。


In addition to becoming more active in world diplomacy, Yudhoyono will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow this month to discuss buying Russia’s newest fighter jets.	除了在世界外交中变得更活跃之外，尤多约诺本月还将在莫斯科会晤俄罗斯总理普京，商谈购买俄罗斯最新型战斗机的事宜。


Indonesia is seeking to form an air-defense squadron of 12 jets, with eight Russian fighters to complement the two Russian Su-27SK’s and Su-30MKM’s that it has already bought.	印尼正企图构建一支由12架喷气战斗机组成的空中防卫中队，其中的8家新购战机将作为已经购买的两架苏-27SK和苏-30MKM的补充。


Elsewhere in the region, Singapore has apparently opted to purchase 12 new F-15SG fighter aircraft from the United States.	在该地区的其他地方，新加坡已明确表示要从美国购买12架新F-15SG战斗机。


Thailand’s Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, met Putin late last year and tentatively agreed to purchase 12 Su-30MKM’s.	泰国总理他信在去年会晤普京时，也意向性地同意购买12架苏-30MKM。


Malaysia has agreed to buy 18 Su-30MKM’s over the next two years, while Vietnam has purchased 36 SU-27SK’s, 12 of which are already in service.	马来西亚已经同意在未来两年内购买18架苏-30MKM，而越南则已经购买了36架苏-27SK，其中12架已经开始服役。


With the exception of Singapore, it seems that Russian fighter-attack aircraft are the region’s weapon of choice at the moment.	目前看来，除新加坡外，似乎俄罗斯的战斗机是该地区武器的首选。


Russia’s growing slice of the local arms market worries the US, the world’s biggest weapons supplier and still Asia’s greatest military power.	俄罗斯在当地武器市场上日益扩大的份额令美国担心。 美国是世界最大的武器供应国并仍然是亚洲最强大的军事存在。


Thus, for example, last November, the US lifted its six-year embargo on military sales to Indonesia, imposed in 1999 in response to human rights abuses in East Timor.	因此，美国在去年十一月就解除了1999年以来对印尼实施的武器禁运。 该禁运是针对东帝汶的人权状况做出的。


Indonesia immediately expressed its intention to purchase C-130 transport aircraft, as well as fast patrol boats to conduct “anti-terrorism and anti-piracy measures.”	而印尼也立即表示了购买C-130运输机和用于“反恐怖和反海盗”的巡逻快艇的意愿。


Yet Indonesia is also trying to align itself with Asia’s rising power, China, by seeking greater defense and security cooperation.	然而，印尼也同时努力通过更大范围的防务和安全合作与亚洲崛起中的强国—中国结盟。


As a result of these improved relations, Indonesia has received Chinese short-range missile technology.	由于这些关系的改善，印尼已经获得了中国的短程导弹技术。


The possibility that Southeast Asia’s governments might begin to play America and China off against each other is one of the concerns that most animates the latest US quadrennial defense review, which is intended to “focus on the Pacific Ocean” in awareness of China’s growing naval power.	东南亚各国政府在中美两国之间开始采取借力打力的战略的可能性成为美国最近一次四年一度的国防评估中的热门论题之一。 这次评估在意识到中国日趋强大的海军实力的前提下，力图“关注太平洋地区”。


Undoubtedly, the US will try to build closer ties with Indonesia through greater military cooperation, because Indonesia borders the region’s key sea lines of communications.	毫无疑问，美国将会通过更大范围的军事合作与印尼建立更为密切的关系，因为印尼邻近该地区重要的海运航路。


In particular, Indonesia will inevitably become involved in the tug of war between the US and China for influence over the vitally important Malacca Strait.	印尼将会不可避免地卷入中美两国在对至关重要的马六甲海峡的影响力上的拉锯战。


Because China must import vast quantities of oil through the Malacca Strait, that sea lane has become a central element in the country’s security strategy.	因为中国必须通过马六甲海峡进口大量的石油，所以这条海上通道已经成为该国安全战略中的核心元素。


For this reason, China is attempting to use economic and military aid as leverage to improve relations even with countries with which it has had military confrontations with in the past, most prominently Vietnam and the Philippines.	出于这一原因，中国正试图以经济和军事援助为杠杆，与甚至在过去有过军事对抗的国家改善关系。 其中最明显的莫过于越南和菲律宾。


India, too, is now joining the military build-up.	印度现在也加入了军力扩张的阵营。


It has actively led regional multilateral joint exercises, such as the naval joint exercise that India’s navy hosted in the Andaman Sea, in the eastern Indian Ocean, earlier this year. Nine Asian-Pacific countries took part, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.	它已经积极地主导了地区性的多边联合军事演习，例如在今年早些时候由印度海军主持的，在安达曼海和东印度洋进行的联合军演，有包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国在内的九个亚太区国家参加。


Both India and China are each seeking greater influence over the strategically important country of Myanmar.	印度和中国也正各自寻求增加对缅甸，这一具有重要战略地位的国家的影响力。


For example, after Myanmar signed an agreement with China in 2005 to supply natural gas, India responded by cutting its own gas deal with Myanmar.	例如在缅甸于2005年和中国签署了天然气供应协议后，印度也以和缅甸签署自己的供气协议作为回应。


South Korea, too, has joined the scramble.	韩国也加入了这场纷争。


President Roh Moo-hyun visited Malaysia and agreed to expand mutual economic cooperation mainly in information technology, bio-technology, and resources and energy.	卢武铉总统访问了马来西亚并同意扩展两国在信息技术、生物技术以及资源和能源方面的经济合作。


Roh reportedly also discussed exporting defense materials worth $2.3 billion, including training aircraft, destroyers, and armed vehicles.	据报道，他还就出口价值23亿美元的教练机、驱逐舰和武装车辆等国防产品和马方进行了磋商。


Moreover, in January 2006, Korean Defense Minister Yoon agreed with the Philippines to deliver two used patrol boats.	另外，在2006年一月，韩国国防部长还同意向菲律宾提供两艘退役的巡洋舰。


In this crowded power play, only Japan is left out, choosing for the most part to remain aloof and cultivate its relations with the US.	在这场拥挤的权力角力中，只有日本置身事外，在很大程度上选择了冷眼旁观，并着力培养与美国的关系。


But, despite deep historical animosity over World War II, there are increasing calls in the region for Japan to expand its influence to counterbalance China.	但是，尽管有二战中的历史积怨，该地区希望日本扩大影响以制衡中国的呼声也日渐高涨。


In reality, Japan is not ready for this, because it still strongly adheres to “self-imposed restraints” against “influence over other countries in security and defense,” including weapons exports.	而实际上，日本还没有为此做好准备，因为它仍然固执地恪守着防止“在安全和防务方面影响他国”的“自我施加的制约”。 其中也包括在武器出口方面的制约。


In the 1960’s, as its economic takeoff was proceeding, Japan initiated a serious dialogue with regional players, aiming to build stronger relations with countries that it had once conquered and occupied.	在1960年代的经济起飞之际，日本开始了和该地区主要国家的严肃对话，以求增进与这些一度被其征服和占领过的国家之间的关系。


It is no overstatement to say that those efforts, which boosted trade and investment in the region, formed the foundation of Japan’s national power today.	如果说这些努力通过推动在该地区的贸易和投资，形成了今天日本国家实力的基础也是不为过的。


But now Japan’s political and economic influence in South East Asia is gradually declining, owing in part to its failure to exert influence over security and defense matters.	但今天，日本在东南亚的政治和经济影响力渐渐式微，在一定程度上可以归结于其在安全和防务问题上施加影响力的失败。


For those Asian countries that recall Japan’s moderate and sensible advancement of regional policies since the 1960’s, there is a growing expectation that Japan should re-think its stance.	那些还能回忆起日本自1960年代以来适度而明智的地区政策推进的亚洲国家都越来越希望日本能重新考虑其立场。


At a time of regional uncertainty about Chinese policies – including the looming prospect of China’s first aircraft carrier – Japan’s participation in the evolving Asian security framework is fundamental to stability.	在中国的区域政策还不明朗的时期—包括中国的第一艘航空母舰投入现役的前景—日本参与到演进中的亚洲安全框架中来，对于地区的稳定具有根本性的意义。


The time when Japan could remain on the sidelines is over.	日本可以袖手旁观的时代已经一去不返了。


Starting South Korea’s New Growth Engines	开启韩国新的增长引擎


SEOUL – In the last half-century, South Korea has become a model for developing countries, with remarkable economic growth enabling it to become the world’s eighth largest trading country and achieve per capita income of $26,000.	首尔——在过去半个世纪里，韩国已成为发展中国家的典范，举世瞩目的经济增长令其登上全球第八大贸易国的宝座并实现 人均收入26,000美元。 但最近韩国经济却举步维艰，国内生产总值过去十年来年均增长仅为3.


But lately its economy has been faltering, with GDP growth averaging 3.6% for the last ten years – a significant drop from the 8.1% annual growth rate that prevailed in 1965-2005.	6％——较之1965-2005年成功保持的8. 1％的年增长率大幅下滑。


And the OECD projects a further decline – to around 2.5% – in the coming decade.	而且经合组织预测韩国年增长率仍将进一步下降——在今后几十年内降至约2. 5%左右。


But a forecast is not fate.	但预测并非不可改变。


With a new economic strategy that nurtures more diversified sources of growth, while reducing the country’s excessive reliance on exports and large enterprises, South Korea can reinvigorate and sustain strong growth.	凭借培育更多元化增长源泉及减少对出口和大型企业过度依赖的全新经济战略，韩国完全可以重振经济并保持强劲增速。


South Korea’s economic performance over the last 50 years was attributed largely to good fundamentals, including a high savings rate, strong human capital, sound institutions, and prudent fiscal and monetary management.	过去50年韩国的经济表现主要归功于良好的基本面，包括高储蓄率、雄厚的人力资本、健全的制度和审慎的财政和货币管理政策。


Trade openness provided access to inexpensive imported intermediate goods, larger markets, and advanced technologies, thereby contributing to rapid productivity growth in the country’s manufacturing industries.	贸易开放提供了廉价的进口中间产品，更广阔的市场和先进的技术，并因此促成了该国制造业生产率的快速增长。


Performance-based incentives facilitated the continuous upgrading of South Korea’s comparative advantage in global markets.	以绩效为基础的激励措施推动韩国在全球市场的比较优势不断提升。


The problem is that such policies have led South Korea to become excessively dependent on exports for growth.	问题是上述政策导致韩国的经济增长过度依赖出口。


Exports accounted for about 56% of South Korea’s gross national income in 2013, compared to 34% in 2002 and just 15% in 1970.	出口占2013年韩国国民收入总值的56％左右，而该比例在2002年仅为34%，1970年仅为15%。


As a result, South Korea’s economy has become highly vulnerable to changes in external demand – a fact that became starkly apparent during the 2008 global economic crisis.	这样一来，韩国经济非常容易受制于外部需求的变化——2008年全球经济危机期间这一事实变得尤其显著。


South Korea’s relationship with China perfectly illustrates the challenges it faces.	韩国与中国的关系完美演绎了它所面临的挑战。


As China’s economic growth soared, so did its share of South Korea’s total exports, which doubled, from 12% to 24%, in the period from 2001 to 2013.	中国在韩国出口总量中所占的份额随着中国的经济增长而大幅飙升，从2001年到2013年间实现了翻番，从12%增长到24%。


But China’s economy has recently begun to slow, and its growth trajectory is expected to be much less steep in the coming years than it was over the last three decades.	但中国经济最近已经开始放缓，预计其未来几年的增长轨迹远不及过去30年那样陡峭。


Moreover, China is posing increasingly tough competition for South Korea, by encouraging the emergence of more technologically advanced industries like electronics, information technology, motor vehicles, semiconductors, shipbuilding, and high-end steel products.	此外，通过鼓励发展在技术上更为先进的行业，如电子、信息技术、汽车、半导体、造船和高端钢铁制品，中国对韩国造成的竞争越来越激烈。


China’s efforts to upgrade its own growth model, together with the possibility of long-term stagnation among advanced economies, raises serious concerns about South Korea’s prospects.	中国升级自身增长模式的努力，加之发达经济体可能陷入长期停滞，引发了人们对韩国发展前景的严重忧虑。


Compounding these problems is the wide imbalance between South Korea’s manufacturing and services sectors.	让问题变得更为严重的是韩国制造业和服务业之间的显著失衡。


Though services account for 76% of employment, its contribution to overall economic growth is small, owing to low productivity.	虽然服务业占到就业人数的76％，但生产力低下限制了其对整体经济增长所做的贡献。


Indeed, value added per worker in the services sector remains just 40% of that in the manufacturing sector, and annual productivity growth was only 2% from 1980 to 2010 – significantly lower than the manufacturing sector’s rate of 8.2%.	事实上，服务业人员人均附加值仍然仅有制造业的40％，且1980年至2010年间的年均生产率增长仅为2% ——远远落后于制造业8. 2%的年均增长率。


Against this background, South Korea’s new growth strategy should aim to achieve both a demand-side rebalancing and supply-side productivity increases.	在此背景下，韩国新增长战略的目标应当是实现需求领域的再平衡和供给领域的生产率提高。


On the demand side, South Korea must begin by boosting household expenditure.	在需求领域，韩国必须着手提高每家每户的开销。


This will require reversing the sharp decline in the proportion of middle-income households, which is down to 67.5%, from 75.4% in 1990.	这就需要扭转中等收入家庭比例急剧下降的趋势，该比例从1990年的75. 4％下降到今天的67.


With more than half of these households earning less than they spend every month, household debt has been rising fast, and now stands above 160% of disposable income – one of the highest levels in the OECD.	5％。 因为超过半数的家庭月开销高于月收入，家庭负债因此迅速攀升，现在在可支配收入中占比已达160％以上——这在经合组织国家中名列前茅。


Transferring unused corporate savings to households, while reducing the number of low-wage temporary and part-time workers, would boost domestic demand and reduce income inequality.	实现闲置企业储蓄向家庭转移和削减低工资临时和兼职人员数量能够扩大内需，并减少收入不平等现象。


Policies aimed at increasing female labor-force participation and lowering private education spending would also help.	旨在提高女性劳动力占比和降低私人教育支出的政策也将发挥作用。


At the same time, South Korea should work to improve the investment climate to raise the quantity and quality of investment, particularly of small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in the services industry.	与此同时，韩国应努力改善投资环境，特别是提高中小企业（SMEs）服务业投资的数量和质量。


On the supply side, structural reforms to stimulate productivity growth could, for example, emphasize the development of modern services industries, including health care, education, telecommunications, business processing, and legal and financial services.	在供应领域，以刺激生产力增长为目的的结构改革可以，举例来讲，重点发展现代服务业，包括医疗保健、教育、电信、事务处理以及法律和金融领域的服务。


Efforts to ease product regulations and lower barriers to foreign investment would promote competition and technological innovation.	放松产品法和降低外国投资门槛将加快竞争和科技创新的脚步。


South Korea must also dismantle the obstacles that start-up businesses face.	韩国还必须消除初创企业所面临的障碍。


To this end, the government must redress shortcomings in the venture-capital market, nurture the labor force’s skills, and encourage entrepreneurship.	为此，政府必须纠正风险资本市场所存在的缺陷，并在培养劳动力技能的同时鼓励创业。


It must also confront the huge, family-controlled chaebols – such as Hyundai, LG, and Samsung – that contributed significantly to rapid industrialization and technological advancement but also block competition from start-ups and SMEs, stifling dynamism and innovation.	政府还必须面对由家族控制的巨型财团——如现代、LG和三星——这些企业在为快速工业化和科技进步做出显著贡献的同时也抑制了初创及中小企业的竞争，扼杀了活力和创新的源泉。


Stricter rules are needed to improve corporate governance and prevent unfair practices by those affiliated with the chaebols.	必须制定更严格的规则来改善公司治理及防止财阀下属公司的不公平做法。


South Korea is at a crossroads.	韩国现在正处在十字路口。


Though President Park Geun-hye’s administration, which took office in 2013, has unveiled many economic initiatives to foster a “creative economy,” their effect so far has been minimal.	虽然2013年执政的朴槿惠总统政��已经推出了众多经济措施以打造“创意经济”，但迄今为止它们的影响仍然微乎其微。


But her government still has three years to pursue reforms that support the emergence of the services sector, start-ups, and SMEs as South Korea’s new growth engines, capable of powering a more dynamic and innovative economy for the next 30 years.	但她的政府依然有三年时间推行支持服务业、初创企业和中小企业等韩国全新增长引擎兴起的改革，上述行业能在今后30年为韩国提供更有活力的创新经济。


South Korea’s Rude Awakening	韩国的猛然觉醒


DENVER – On February 10, South Korean President Park Geun-hye announced that she would respond to North Korea’s recent nuclear test and rocket launch by closing the Kaesong Industrial Region, the last major effort at inter-Korean cooperation.	丹佛—2月10日，韩国总统朴槿惠宣布将对朝鲜的最新核试验和火箭发射做出反应，关闭开成工业园。 开城工业园是仅存的朝鲜半岛大型南北合作项目。


In response, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un seized all South Korean assets in the region, giving the 248 managers living there only a few hours to pack their personal belongings and leave.	朝鲜领导人金正恩对此的反应是没收所有园区内韩国资产，勒令生活在其中的248位管理人员在几小时内收拾个人物品离开。


Shortly afterward, a member of South Korea’s National Assembly explained Park’s decision to me. “There is a new paradigm here,” he said.	不久后，一位韩国国民大会议员向我解释了朴槿惠的决定。


“No one believes anymore that the North will ever give up its nuclear weapons.”	“有一个新范式，”他说，“再也不会有人相信朝鲜会放弃核武器了。 ”


It will take some time before the full meaning of this new paradigm comes into focus.	这一新范式的全部意义成为人们关注的焦点还需要一些时间。


In the meantime, one thing is clear: South Korea is headed into uncharted waters, where it will require the support of the international community.	与此同时，有一件事已经明确无疑：韩国正在进入未知水域，需要国际社会的支持。


For years, South Koreans have hoped that North Korea could be made to understand that a nuclear deal is in its own interest.	多年来，韩国人希望朝鲜能够明白核协议符合其自身利益。


After all, in exchange for abandoning its nuclear weapons program, the North would gain economic and energy assistance, a peace treaty with the United States, diplomatic recognition, the opportunity to join the international community, and even – eventually – the world’s blessing to pursue a civil nuclear program.	毕竟，作为放弃核武器计划的交换，朝鲜将获得经济和能源援助，与美国签订和平条约，获得外交承认，获得加入国际社会的机会，甚至——最终——获得实施民用核计划的认可。


By any logic, North Korea was being offered a good deal; sooner or later, it should have taken it.	无论从哪个逻辑上说，朝鲜都获得了很好的条件，迟早应该接受。


And yet North Korea consistently spurned any attempt to strike an agreement.	然而朝鲜一直拒绝任何签订协议的尝试。


For many in the West, and especially for the political right in the US, the futility of attempting to negotiate with the North is hardly a revelation.	对许多西方人来说——特别是美国的政治右翼——任何与朝鲜谈判的尝试必然是徒劳。


But what these critics have failed to understand is how counterproductive the exhortations of those safely living thousands of miles away can be.	但这些批评者没有认识到，这些安全地生活在数千英里之外的人的劝诫只能适得其反。


It was important – even essential – that South Koreans were allowed to reach their own conclusion regarding the North.	必须让韩国人形成其自身对朝鲜的态度，这一点很重要——甚至是关键性的。


The country’s division in 1945 had nothing to do with the Koreans themselves.	朝鲜半岛在1945年分裂，这与朝鲜人民本身无关。


Soviet forces invaded the peninsula in the last days of World War II – a pure land grab – and accepted the surrender of Japanese forces.	二战最后的日子里，苏军入侵朝鲜半岛——纯粹是为了掠夺土地——接受日本投降。


The US, concerned that the Soviets would take the entire peninsula, reached a hasty agreement to accept the surrender of Japanese forces south of the 38th parallel.	美国担心苏联占领整个扳倒，匆忙签订协议接受三八线以南日军的投降。


The resulting division of the peninsula along the 38th parallel has outlasted many other such twentieth-century tragedies, dividing families and fracturing an ancient, vibrant civilization.	于是，朝鲜半岛沿三八线分成两半，其分裂时间比许多类似的二十世纪悲剧更加持久，许多家庭天各一方，一个古老灿烂的文明也惨遭割裂。


The Kaesong Industrial Region has had special symbolic resonance.	开城工业园曾经引起了特别的象征性共鸣。


The ancient city of Kaesong sits in a shallow valley just to the west along the Demilitarized Zone, on a traditional invasion route for troops heading north or south during more than two millennia of Korean history.	开城古城位于非军事区西邻的浅谷钟，两千年来一直是朝鲜半岛南北行军的必经之地。


In the original division of the peninsula, it was South Korea’s northernmost city.	在朝鲜半岛分裂之处，开城是韩国最北端的城市。


During the Korean War, however, it fell under the control of the North Korean and Chinese armies; after the armistice, it became North Korea’s southernmost city.	但是，朝鲜战争期间，开城落入朝鲜和中国军队之手，停战协议后成为朝鲜最南端的城市。


The 2002 agreement to create the industrial region offered hope that the two countries could be brought together again.	开城工业园根据2002年协议创建，让人们感到两国有望再次走到一起。


The city offered a lifeline to South Korean companies struggling with rapidly rising wages, allowing them to make use of low-cost North Korean labor.	开城为疲于应付工资迅速上涨的韩国公司提供了一线生机，让它们得以利用低成本的朝鲜劳动力。


And providing North Koreans with the opportunity to work for South Korean firms was seen as a first step in overcoming the peninsula’s division.	而朝鲜人得以有机会为韩国企业工作，这被视为改变半岛分裂状态的第一步。


Many South Koreans have found foreign criticism of the “inter-Korean dialogue,” in which their country sought concessions from grim-faced Northern negotiators, to be grating.	许多韩国人听到了许多刺耳的关于“南北对话”的外国批评，在这些批评中，韩国逼迫面有菜色的北方谈判员妥协。


The critics, they say, have not suffered the pain of being split in two.	他们说，批评者从未经历过国家分裂的痛苦。


Foreign accusations that South Koreans were appeasers or irrationally optimistic about Kaesong were angrily rebuffed.	外国人指责韩国人绥靖，对开城工业园过于乐观，这令韩国人怒不可遏。


That is why Park’s decision to cancel the project has so much resonance.	因此，朴槿惠关于取消开城工业园项目的决定引起了极大的共鸣。


Her decision is an explicit recognition that the country can no longer do business with North Korea’s murderous, Caligula-like ruler.	她的决定昭示着韩国明确认识到已经无法继续与朝鲜的残暴统治者打交道。


The move is expected to be followed by others, as South Korea puts an end to cooperation across the board.	预计这一动作之后还有其他后续动作，韩国将终止南北合作。


The new paradigm dramatically changes the strategic calculus in the region.	这一新范式彻底改变了地区战略形势。


It ensures that South Korea will adopt a defensive stance against its bellicose neighbor, which opens up the possibility that high-tech US anti-missile batteries will be deployed.	显然，朝鲜将对其好斗的邻居采取防卫立场，这为部署美国高科技反导系统打开了大门。


Once-taboo options will gain increasing prominence.	曾经是禁区的选择将日益变得重要。


If North Korea begins to fuel another multistage rocket, will South Korea target it on the launch pad in the name of self-defense?	如果朝鲜点燃又一个多级火箭，韩国会以自卫的名义对准发射台吗？


How should Park respond if missile-armed submarines sail out of North Korean ports?	如果弹道导弹潜艇驶出朝鲜港口，朴槿惠如何应对？


North Korea’s nuclear tests and rocket launch have made the world a more dangerous place.	朝鲜核试验和火箭发射让世界面对更加危险的局面。


As South Koreans contemplate their new strategic situation, they must be made to know that they will have international support.	韩国人正在思考新的战略立场，他们必须让朝鲜知道他们拥有国际支持。


China’s South Korean Future	中国的韩国未来


DENVER – The so-called six-party talks – the on again, off again international mechanism by which the United States, China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan negotiate with North Korea over its nuclear aspirations – are often cited as an example of multilateral diplomacy.	丹佛——美、中、俄、韩、日就朝鲜核野心展开谈判的所谓六方会谈时断时续，这常常被奉为多边外交的实例。


In fact, the talks have served as a platform for addressing a host of issues that range far beyond the North Korean nuclear problem, in the process nurturing interlocking, interrelated bilateral relationships in the region.	其实，在营造环环相扣、相互关联的区域双边环境过程中，各国正依托六方会谈解决朝鲜核问题等诸多问题。


For the Chinese, in particular, the talks have been an opportunity to get to know some of their neighbors better – and they have certainly helped Sino-US relations.	尤其对中国人而言，六方会谈是对邻国增进了解的好机会，而且无疑有益于中美关系。


But perhaps the key bilateral relationship that has been strengthened by the six-party mechanism is that between China and South Korea.	但中韩关系或许是六方会谈机制强化的最重要的双边关系。


This will be on full display at the end of June, when South Korea’s new president, Park Geun-hye, visits Beijing to meet China’s new president, Xi Jinping.	六月底韩国新总统朴槿惠访问北京会晤中国新任主席习近平充分表明会谈惠及中韩关系。


China and South Korea need no introduction to each other, of course – such is the burden of history in the region.	中韩两国当然并不陌生——东亚地区背负着沉重的历史包袱。


But their relationship is about to change, thanks in part to the patterns of official cooperation that the six-party talks created.	但得益于六方会谈创造的官方合作模式，中韩关系即将发生变化。


If the Chinese are successful in shifting away from North Korea, they have to pivot somewhere.	逐渐疏远朝鲜的中国需要新的支点，这个支点就是首尔。


And that place is South Korea. After all, China needs a sustainable relationship with the neighboring Korean Peninsula.	归根结底，中国需要与相邻的朝鲜半岛发展可持续关系。


The bilateral relationship has grown closer in recent decades, owing to active exploration of the Chinese market by South Korea’s large industrial conglomerates.	由于韩国大型工业集团积极开拓中国市场，近几十年来中韩双边关系日趋密切。


Today, their bilateral trade dwarfs that between China and North Korea.	今天，中朝贸易较之中韩贸易相形见绌。


Yet the relationship has always had a limited political dynamic.	但中韩关系从政治层面看一直不甚活跃。


Given China’s close relationship with the North, its leaders have never warmed to South Korea’s democratically elected governments, whether left or right.	鉴于中朝关系密切，中国领导人从未热心与无论左翼还是右翼的韩国民选政府改善关系。


But China is about to experience something new: South Korea’s soft power, personified by Park, who represents a center-right coalition, but defies the usual political labels.	但中国即将面临新的情况：那就是以朴槿惠为代表的韩国软实力。 朴槿惠代表中右翼政治联盟，但却与常规的政治标签不符。


Indeed, she was elected with a curious blend of support: right-wing backers of her father, Park Chung-hee, who ruled the country with an iron fist from 1961 to 1979, and many other Koreans, including some on the left, who wanted someone different from the usual blue-suited, white-shirted Korean politician.	其实，支持她当选的是一股异乎寻常的混合力量：包括支持曾于1961到1971年铁腕治国的其父朴正熙的右翼势力，还有期望改变老式韩国政客蓝西服、白衬衫刻板印象的其他韩国民众，包括某些左翼人士。


Park is tough-minded on national security, but takes up new issues and agendas with a refreshing combination of intellectual energy and personal calm.	朴槿惠在国家安全方面态度强硬，但却以前所未有的智慧和平静探讨新的议题。


She listens carefully and pauses before responding.	她认真倾听，仔细考虑后再加以回复。


Moreover, rumor has it that she is considering delivering her speech in Beijing in Mandarin.	此外，有传言说她正考虑用普通话在北京演讲。


Such a performance is likely to resonate not only with China’s leaders, but also with ordinary citizens.	这样的表现很可能引发中国领袖和普通民众的共鸣。


South Korea’s soft power is well deserved and extends across Asia.	韩国的软实力当之无愧、遍布亚洲。


Its cultural and scientific achievements are increasingly influential throughout the world.	其文化科学成就在世界各地影响越来越显著。


Even when its relations with Japan are difficult, Japanese tourists flock to Seoul to shop and tour the studios that produce the country’s extraordinarily successful television dramas.	即便韩日关系困难，但日本游客仍然蜂拥到首尔购物，参观韩国热播剧的制作工作室。


Park’s visit to China will give her country’s soft power a human face.	朴槿惠访华将为韩国软实力配上人性化的面孔。


No new agreements or other diplomatic breakthroughs are likely to be announced during Park’s visit.	朴访华期间不太可能有新协议或其他外交突破。


The Chinese will look at her carefully, and may well be sizing her up as an immediate neighbor should North Korea persist on its current course to total isolation and oblivion.	如果朝鲜仍坚持目前的孤立路线，中国人可能会仔细观察她，并暗中对韩国这个近邻做出评估。


The Chinese know that Park values her relationship with the United States, but they also understand that she, like most mature South Korean leaders, desires a solid relationship with China as well – one based (unlike in centuries past) on mutual respect.	中国人知道朴槿惠重视韩美关系，但也清楚她和多数成熟韩国领导人一样希望在相互尊重基础（和过去几个世纪不同）上拥有坚实的对华关系。


China’s leaders will also be interested in her thinking on Japan, particularly given the inclinations of her father, who served as an officer in the Imperial Japanese Army during World War II.	中国领导人也希望了解她在日本问题上的立场，尤其鉴于其父的政治倾向，二战期间朴正熙曾在日本帝国陆军担任军官职务。


Park’s visit to China comes at a time when China’s new leadership is grappling with problems near and far.	朴槿惠访华时中国新领导人正试图解决各种远近问题。


Its reluctant pivot away from North Korea, however discernible, should not be regarded as a fait accompli; nor should it be explained away as the result of momentary frustration with the adolescent behavior of Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s boy leader.	不管举措多么明显，中国不情愿地疏远朝鲜都不应被当作既成事实； 此外，中国对朝策略也不能单纯地用对朝鲜男孩领袖金正恩幼稚行为的一时不满来解释。


Over the centuries, the Chinese have learned a thing or two about when a dynasty’s days are numbered.	几百年来，中国人对王朝临近崩溃的状态已经略知一二。


China, too, is developing in ways that will be far easier to assess in retrospect than they are today.	中国自己的发展事后评估起来也远比今天更加容易。


And, if South Korea’s own recent past can be any guide, China’s economic transformation is likely to be followed by political and social changes of equally dramatic proportions.	而且如果韩国近代史具有任何指导作用，那么中国经济转型引发的政治和社会变化很可能同样具有戏剧性。


Thus, how the Chinese receive Park may turn out to be less a reflection of change in South Korea than a reflection of change in the People’s Republic – an issue that goes to the heart of China’s identity and mission in the modern world.	因此，中国人如何对待朴槿惠可能更多反映了中国而不是韩国的变化——这涉及到现代世界中国身份和使命等核心问题。


South Korea’s Budding Femocracy	女性民主在韩国萌芽


TOKYO – This is a year of presidential elections worldwide, and the last to take place – on December 19 – will be in South Korea.	东京—今年，全世界都在选总统，最后一位选出的（12月19日）将是韩国总统。


That ballot, however, is already having an international impact, in part because South Korea’s failure to ratify an important new intelligence-sharing treaty with Japan is widely seen as a result of campaign politics.	但是，韩国总统选举已经产生了国际影响，这部分是因为，韩国没有批准重要的与日情报共享新条约被广泛看作是竞选政治的结果。


But the election may well have a more positive impact on the region as a whole.	但从该地区作为一个整体看，韩国总统选举可能会带来很好的积极影响。


On July 10, the frontrunner, Park Geun-hye of the ruling Saenuri (New Frontier) Party, became the first to announce her candidacy.	7月10日，当前的领先者、新国家党（Saenuri Party）的朴槿惠首先宣布参选。


In addition to other opposition candidates, much attention has focused on Ahn Cheol-soo, Dean of the Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology at Seoul National University, who is a successful entrepreneur and a charismatic figure for South Korea’s young and independent voters.	除了其他反对派候选人外，很多人将目光集中到了首尔大学融合科学与技术研究生院院长安哲秀身上。 安哲秀是一位成功的企业家，在韩国年轻人和独立选民中拥有崇高的声望。


But it is Park who has so far stimulated the greatest interest.	但最令人感兴趣的还是朴槿惠。


There is great anticipation among conservative voters, in particular, concerning her policy toward North Korea, a country that continues to be as unpredictable as ever.	特别是在保守派选民中，人们对其对朝政策抱有极大希望。


(Witness Kim Jong-un’s sudden dismissal of senior military officer Ri Yong-ho, anointment of himself as a marshal, and revelation that he had married a woman first glimpsed when she accompanied him to a concert featuring appearances by Disney’s Mickey and Minnie Mouse.)	朝鲜仍是个永远令人捉摸不透的国家，比如，金正恩突然间便将高级军官李英浩解职、给自己加上元帅头衔，又默示自己已经结婚。 他的妻子首次露面是陪同他出席迪士尼米老鼠音乐会。


So far, Park, sensing that the electorate trusts her foreign-policy instincts, has kept her North Korea cards close to her chest.	到目前为止，朴槿惠还没有透露丝毫针对朝鲜的想法，她认为选民会信任她的外交天赋。


For many South Koreans, Park is a tragic heroine.	对许多韩国人来说，朴槿惠是一个悲剧英雄。


Both her mother and her father, President Park Chung-hee, were assassinated, in 1974 and 1979, respectively.	其母亲和父亲（前总统朴正熙）分别于1974年和1979年遇刺身亡。


Indeed, her father was murdered by his own intelligence chief, KCIA Director Kim Jaegyu.	事实上，其父死于手下情报主管、韩国中央情报局局长金载圭之手。


Park avoided active politics for many years after her parents’ death, but later won a parliamentary seat.	双亲去世后，朴槿惠多年内都避免在政治上过于活跃，但随后，她赢得了一个议会席位。


She has also served as a leader of the Saenuri Party (formerly known as the Grand National Party).	她还成为新国家党（即前大国家党）领导人。


In 2006, an assailant slashed her face as she was campaigning on behalf of the GNP’s candidate in Seoul’s mayoral election.	2006年，在担任大国家党候选人竞选首尔市长的竞选活动中，朴槿惠遇袭，脸部被划伤。


But now the real battle begins.	但如今，真正的战斗打响了。


If elected, Park will become South Korea’s first female president.	如果当选，朴槿惠将成为韩国首位女总统。


Like Japan and other Asian countries, Korean society, which is underpinned by Confucian thought, has experienced little political participation by women, though that appears to be changing rapidly.	与日本和其他亚洲国家一样，韩国社会以儒家思想为根基，女性从政经历很少，尽管这一状况正在迅速改变。


In 2000, only 5.9% of the National Assembly’s 299 members were women.	2000年，国民议会的299名代表中女性只占5. 9%。


In 2004, however, women more than doubled their share, to 13%, when 39 were elected from single-seat constituencies and through party-list proportional representation.	但到了2004年，女性比重翻了一番多，达到了13%。 39名女性从单一席位选区和政党比例代表名单竞选中胜出。


According to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), that election pushed South Korea from 101st to 62nd place worldwide in terms of the proportion of female MPs , well ahead of 121st-ranked Japan.	根据国际议会联盟（Inter-Parliamentary Union）的数据，2004年的选举将韩国的女性议员比例世界排名从101位提升到了62位，远高于排名121位的日本。


The increase in women MPs led not only to an increase in female cabinet members, but also to a variety of policies and institutional improvements aimed specifically at women.	女性议员数量的增加不仅提高了女性内阁成员人数，也促进了一系列专门针对女性的政策和制度改善计划。


And, although South Korea has slipped to 80th place in the IPU’s most recent rankings, the fall reflects subsequent growth in the proportion of female legislators in other countries.	此外，尽管如今韩国在国际议会联盟女性议员比例排名中下滑到了第80位，但这一下滑反映的是其他国家女性立法者比例的剧增。


The main reason for the increase in the number of women MPs was the introduction of a quota system, according to which South Korea’s political parties should ensure that 30% of their candidates are women.	女性议员数量增加的主要原因是引入了配额制，根据该制度，韩国政党必须确保30%的候选人是女性。


The campaign-finance law was revised to provide additional government funding to parties that meet the quota, and to reduce the amount for parties that do not.	竞选融资法也做了修订，为满足配额制规定的政党提供附加的政府资金支持，而不满足配额制规定的政党将被削减资金支持。


As a result, more than half of the 56 members elected through proportional representation in 2004 were women.	结果，在2004年通过比例代表选举胜出的56名成员中，女性数量超过了一半。


Moreover, 10% of government funding to political parties is now used for the advancement of women in politics, with each party establishing institutions for training women MPs and candidates.	此外，10%政府政党资金支持被用于改善女性政治权利，所有政党都建立了培训女性议员和候选人的制度。


Although the quota system is still a matter of constitutional debate in South Korea, years of effort by women’s groups have made a significant contribution to boosting women’s role in policymaking.	尽管配额制仍处于宪法争论阶段，女性团体多年来的努力在提升女性在决策过程中的作用方面居功至伟。


The triumph of a female president would be an important symbolic and practical victory for all who have sought to establish a political environment that is hospitable to women.	对所有志在营造对女性友好的政治环境之人来说，女性在总统选举中胜出具有重要的象征意义，也是重大的现实胜利。


And it would provide a powerful example to other Asian countries – including my own – in which women have struggled to gain an electoral foothold.	女总统的诞生还能给其他亚洲国家——包括我的祖国——树立一个榜样，在这些国家，女性仍在为能在选战中站稳脚跟而斗争。


South Korea’s G-20 Challenge	G-20主席国：韩国面临的挑战


BERKELEY – On January 1, South Korea takes over the G-20 chairmanship from the United Kingdom.	伯克利 —— 明年 1 月 1 日，韩国将接替英国成为二十国集团（ G-20 ）主席国。


Korea is not the first emerging market to chair the G-20, but it is the first to do so since the global financial crisis.	新兴市场经济体担任该组织的主席国，韩国不是第一个，但它是全球金融危机之后的第一个；


And it is the first to do so since the G-20 emerged as the steering committee for the world economy.	而且也是自 G-20 成为世界经济的指导性协商机制以来，第一个担任其主席国的新兴市场经济体。


G-20 chairs can have considerable influence.	G-20 主席国可望拥有巨大的影响力。


They coordinate the group’s work.	它们负责协调各方工作。


They organize its meetings.	它们组织财长和国家领导人会议。


Like most committee chairs, they have significant agenda-setting power.	它们是设置议程的重要权威，就像一切组织的主席一样。


During the UK’s year chairing the G-20, Gordon Brown had a clear agenda.	在英国担任 G-20 主席国的一年时间里，戈登·布朗有一份明确的议程。


He saw the G-20 as a vehicle for building consensus on coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus and financial regulation.	他把 G-20 视作一个工具，用来谋求共识以协调货币政策、财政刺激和金融规管的工具。


He also viewed it as a forum to address the problems created for the poorest countries by the global financial crisis.	他还把它视作一个论坛，用来回应全球金融危机给最贫困国家造成的困难。


And he used the chairmanship to elicit commitments to resist protectionism.	他还利用主席国的权威，敦促各方承诺，抵制保护主义。


In retrospect, Brown’s agenda-setting problem was easy.	回头来看，布朗设置一个议程反倒是件相对容易的事情。


Given the nature and gravity of the crisis, it was brutally obvious what the priorities for the G-20 should be.	危机的性质和严重程度决定了，上述那些议题毫无疑问就应该是 G-20 的优先议题。


The priorities for President Lee Myung-bak are less obvious.	李明博总统应该优先考虑哪些议题，倒不那么明显。


Some will say that he should get G-20 countries to coordinate an orderly exit from their expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.	有人会说，他应该引导 G-20 国家协调而有序地退出扩张性货币和财政政策。


But growth in the advanced economies will almost certainly remain weak in 2010.	然而， 2010 年，发达经济体的增长一定还是很弱。


With the United States, Europe, and Japan still suffering post-crisis hangovers, this issue can be safely left to the country that chairs the G-20 in 2011.	美国、欧洲和日本要面对危机后遗症，而且这个问题会一直遗留到 2011 年。


Others will say that a priority should be agreement on slowing climate change.	也有人会说，就减缓气候变化达成协议应该是一个优先议题。


But this is best addressed in Copenhagen, in the presence of all world leaders, not in the cozy confines of the G-20.	但那个议题最好还是在哥本哈根大会那样的机制里去讨论，因为各国领导人都会到场，而不像 G-20 这样有着种种门槛。


Small countries – think of Mauritius – are often the ones affected most dramatically by global warming.	一些小国家，例如毛里求斯，往往是全球变暖最大的受害者。


They are excluded from the G-20, which is supposed to be made up of the 20 largest economies as a matter of design.	但它们无法参加 G-20 ，因为设计 G-20 的初衷本来就是让世界 20 大经济体汇聚一堂。


Instead, President Lee should give priority to four issues, starting with financial reform, a problem that Brown targeted but did not solve.	笔者认为，李明博总统应当优先考虑四个问题。 首先是金融改革，这是布朗曾经设立但是并未达到的目标。


Progress here has been inadequate, despite much talk.	尽管有很多讨论，但这方面其实进展不大。


In particular, there has been little action on issues like creating a cross-border resolution authority to deal with the failure of a large financial group, something that can only be done at the international level.	尤其在一些重要问题上没有拿出什么实际行动，比如，大型跨国金融集团的破产事宜，必须在国际层面上加以处理，因此需要建立有关的跨境机构。


The window of opportunity for financial reform is now closing, and business-as-usual will only result in more crises and more bailouts.	金融改革的时机正在慢慢流逝，而维持现状只会导致更多的危机和更多不得不救援的金融机构。


South Korea must therefore do everything it can to reinvigorate the debate.	因此韩国必须竭尽全力，重启有关讨论。


The second priority should be more progress on global rebalancing.	第二个优先议题是推进全球经济再平衡。


Asian countries need to do even more to stimulate spending, and they need to move together.	亚洲经济体需要加大力度刺激支出，而且它们得相互协调，才能有所进展。


China is incapable of solving this problem on its own, because its economy is still only one-third the size of America’s.	光靠中国一家努力，是无法解决这个问题的，因为它的经济体量再大，目前也只有美国的三分之一。


But if Asian countries move together, China will be more willing to let its exchange rate against the dollar become unstuck.	如果亚洲经济体愿意共同努力，就会鼓励中国放松人民币对美元的盯住汇率。


The second factor contributing to the crisis could then be addressed once and for all.	这样一来，才能一劳永逸地消除危��的第二大成因。


Third, the G-20 must address its own legitimacy deficit.	第三， G-20 必须应对其自身缺乏合法性的问题。


After all, no one anointed these 20 countries as the designated representatives of the world.	毕竟，谁也没有授权这 20 个国家来代表世界。


Who speaks for the other 173 internationally recognized countries?	谁来为另外 173 个国际承认的国家代言呢？


Why should there be so many European G-20 members – other than the fact that they were incumbent members of the earlier “G’s” – and not more African members?	为什么 G-20 成员来自欧洲的那么多，来自非洲的那么少呢？ 无非是因为，之前的一些“ G- ”组织，大多是欧美国家俱乐部罢了。


Here, South Korea can propose an obvious solution.	在这方面，韩国有一个方案可以借鉴。


Align G-20 membership with the composition of the International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board.	G-20 的组织形式可以效法国际货币基金组织的执行委员会。


Twenty-four countries sit there. Big ones have their own seats, while smaller ones represent groups of countries, known as “constituencies.”	该委员会有 24 个国家，大国独立拥有席位，小国则组成一些团体，由其中的一些来代表大伙儿，这种团体被称为“选区”。


In many cases, the constituencies rotate the chair among their members.	许多选区有它们自己的轮值主席。


Everyone is represented.	所有经济体都找到了自己的代言人。


Finally, the G-20 needs an emerging-markets caucus.	最后， G-20 中的新兴市场经济体需要有自己的一个预备会议。


The US and the Europeans are in constant contact, doing their best to agree on positions and table common proposals.	美国和欧洲经济体的日常联络很紧密，因此往往可以尽量形成一只立场，提出共同方案。


Emerging markets, failing to do the same, have punched below their weight.	而新兴市场却尚缺乏如此密切的联络机制，这会削弱它们的集体议价能力。


They have allowed the advanced countries to drive the G-20 process.	这样一来，它们只能听任发达国家主导 G-20 进程。


This is the most delicate issue of all for South Korea.	对韩国来说，这个问题最敏感。


As chair, it needs to act as an “honest broker.”	作为主席国，它必须做好一个“诚实的中间人”。


It can’t be seen as giving emerging markets special encouragement.	它不能造成一种印象，好像它在刻意鼓励新兴市场经济体。


And, given its location, South Korea would be torn between encouraging an emerging-market caucus and encouraging an Asian caucus – for Asia, too, needs to organize itself better in order to represent its interests in the G-20.	而且，由于韩国地处亚洲，它也会遇到一些协调上的问题 —— 是建立全体新兴市场经济体的预备会议呢，还是只建立一个亚洲预备会议。 的确，亚洲也需要组织起来，以在 G-20 会议上更好地代表自身利益。


Thus, the initiative here might best come from another G-20 country – maybe Brazil, South Africa, or even Russia.	因此，最好是由其他 G-20 经济体来提议成立这样一个预备会议，比如巴西、南非或俄罗斯。


But South Korea could usefully drop a hint.	不过，韩国可以先释放一点信号。


South Korea’s Political Springtime	韩国的政治之春


SEOUL – The ascension to power of the pudgy 29-year-old Kim Jong-un in North Korea has grabbed headlines around the world, but the most important story involving Korean young people and politics is taking place in the South.	发自首尔——当身材矮胖的金正恩29岁接掌朝鲜最高权力的消息充斥着全世界报纸头条之时，与朝鲜青年和政治有关的最重要新闻却来自半岛的南端。


There, young voters are becoming angrier, more politically active, and increasingly hostile to the old established parties.	在韩国，年轻的选民们正日渐激愤，更具参政积极性，对原有政治党派的敌意也不断上升。


This demographic challenge to South Korea’s status quo suggests a “liberal” awakening that could completely alter the country’s political landscape.	而这种人口结构的变迁以及随之对韩国政治现状构成的挑战也意味着一场“自由主义”的觉醒，甚至将彻底改变该国的政治版图。


The election last autumn of the activist Park Won-soon as mayor of Seoul demonstrated the growing strength of the youth vote, which took the ruling Grand National Party completely by surprise.	政治异见分子朴元淳在去年秋季选举中当选首尔市长的事件说明年轻选民的力量正不断壮大，也令执政的韩国大国家党措手不及。


Young people mobilized themselves spontaneously, using all the tools of social networking and modern communications, to turn out not only voters their own age, but countless others exasperated with South Korea’s rigidity and insulated opportunities.	年轻人自发动员起来，利用一切社交网络工具和现代通讯手段，不仅使得本年龄层的选民出手投票，还发动了无数被僵化现状以及阶级流动机会缺失所激怒的人们。


The sudden surge in young voters has called into question the long-presumed victory of the governing GNP’s likely candidate, Park Guen-hye, in the presidential election due to be held in December.	执政大国家党的总统候选人朴槿惠原本被外界一致看好，但年轻选民的突然涌现使得今年12月的总统选举突生变数。


Indeed, many political analysts now regard the GNP as a sinking ship, particularly after a staffer to one of the party’s MPs allegedly masterminded a cyber-attack on the National Election Commission’s Web site to prevent young voters from getting to the polls.	事实上许多政治分析家如今都将大国家党视为一艘沉没中的巨轮，而情况在该党一名国会议员被揭发为防止年轻选民参与民调，不惜暗中操纵对国家选举委员会网站的网络袭击之后则更加恶化了。


While some pundits and politicians now suggest that the GNP could collapse sooner than corrupt and poverty-stricken North Korea, Park Geun-hye, an iconic woman in South Korean politics, has made it clear that she will not abandon the GNP.	但当某些专家和政界人物预言大国家党将比腐败贫穷的朝鲜更早崩溃的时候，朴槿惠这位韩国政坛的标志性女性却明确声明不会抛弃自己的党派。


To further highlight her resolve, Park became the GNP’s interim leader last month.	为了进一步宣示自己的决心，她还于上月当选为该党的临时党魁。


In Park’s eyes, abandoning the GNP simply because of the party’s deepening unpopularity would show her to lack principles and trustworthiness.	在朴槿惠看来，仅仅因为大国家党民望不断走低就出走只能说明自己是个缺乏原则且不可靠的人。


Her refusal to strike out on her own is probably the main reason why she continues to lead various opinion polls.	而这种拒绝出走的行为或许就是她在各大民意调查中依然领先的原因。


Nevertheless, recent polls show that a majority of voters distrust the incumbent government and the ruling party.	但最近的民意调查也表明：大部分选民根本不信任本届政府和执政党。


Indeed, Ahn Cheol-soo, a successful entrepreneur turned pro-reform professor at Seoul National University and the main backer of the city’s new mayor, has now rocked South Korean politics by dropping broad hints that he might become a presidential candidate.	事实上，由成功企业家成功转型为首尔大学教授的改革派人物，同时也是首尔新市长背后主要支持者的安哲秀也正四处暗示自己将参选总统，使得韩国政坛再起波澜。


Ahn has already become a lightning rod for all of the country’s anti-Park and anti-President Lee Myun-bak forces, attracting young people as well.	目前安哲秀已经成为了该国所有反朴槿惠和反李明博势力的标杆，同时也对青年群体拥有极大吸引力。


Ahn’s most obvious merits are his personal history of overcoming severe challenges and his modest demeanor.	安哲秀最明显的优势莫过于多次克难制胜的个人经历及其风度翩翩的举止。


His signature commercial achievement – the development of anti-virus software – made him immensely wealthy. His decision to give away a large portion of his fortune has made him immensely popular.	他最为人称道的商业成就——开发杀毒软件——为他带来了巨额财富，而他放弃自己一大部分财富的决定又为其换取了极高的民望。


More importantly, Ahn knows how to talk to people who are frustrated by South Korea’s rigid economy and business environment, particularly South Korean youth.	更重要的是，安哲秀懂得如何跟那些对韩国僵化经济和营商环境感到沮丧的人沟通，尤其是那些青年们。


He also seems cognizant of the growing power of social networking in politics.	他似乎也深谙社交网络不断膨胀的政治能量。