When the former government lost the vote this past May, and Singh's government came into office, there were fears that Singh would be hamstrung by left-wing coalition partners, who would demand that market reforms be dismantled as the price of their participation in the new ruling coalition.	去年5月前政府选举失利后，辛格为首的政府掌握了政权，也曾有人担心辛格会受到左翼联盟的诘难，后者将要挟辛格停止市场改革，作为他们参与信任执政联盟的条件。


Chidambaram's 2004/2005 budget puts those fears to rest.	奇丹巴拉姆的2004/2005财年预算平息这种猜测。


The document is a brilliant lesson in development economics: it shows how to combine a full-speed ahead approach to market reforms with urgently needed attention to poverty.	这份文件是发展经济学杰出的范本：表明了如何将全速推进市场改革与迫切需要解决的贫困问题有机结合在一起。


In short, the budget is a model for all developing countries.	简而言之，这份预算为所有发展中国家做出了榜样。


At the heart of the budget is the realization that reducing poverty requires both rapid economic growth and targeted investments aimed at the poorest of the poor.	这份预算的中心阐明了一项清醒的认识：消除贫困不仅要求快速增长，而且需要针对贫困人口中最贫困部分进行专门的投资。


Rapid economic growth is to be based on the private sector, including foreign direct investment.	私有部门是快速增长的基础，其中也包括直接引入外资。


Thus, the budget supports critical areas of market reform and growth promotion, including measures aimed at deepening the financial sector, promoting exports, and liberalizing foreign direct investment.	这样，预算就支持了市场改革和促进增长的关键领域，包括旨在深化金融部门改革、促进出口和放开外商直接投资的措施。


The key, however, is that the budget does not rely simply on "trickle-down" economics to raise living standards.	而关键在于，预算不单纯依靠一点一滴的经济发展来提高生活水平。


The second pillar of poverty reduction is targeted investments for the poor, particularly for the rural poor.	减轻贫困的另一个支柱是针对贫困人口，尤其是农村贫困人口的专项投资。


This approach commits India's national government and state governments to ensuring that all Indians, including the poorest, have access to basic social investments, including health, nutrition, and schooling, and to basic infrastructure, including electricity, information and communications technology, safe drinking water, and inputs for modern agriculture. Every village is to be lifted up in the next few years, empowered with the basic tools to become economically productive.	上述政策使印度的全国和地方政府承担起确保所有印度人都能享受到政府投资的责任，即便最贫困的人口也能享受到健康、营养、教育以及电气、信息、通讯技术、安全饮用水、现代农业等最为基本的基础设施投资。


The scale of the challenge is immense.	上述挑战是巨大的。


There are an estimated 600,000 villages in this vast country of one billion citizens.	在这个拥有10亿人口的泱泱大国，估计农村人口占到了600，000万。


Villages that are far from major ports and cities tend to be poorer and less invigorated by the recent economic growth.	离主要港口和城市较远的农村人口总体上更为贫困，受目前经济增长的影响也相对较小。


The government proposes to equip these villages with the basic infrastructure and services they need to take off economically.	政府准备为他们提供必要的基础设施和服务，帮助他们实现经济的腾飞。


The government's programs are not mere populist promises. They reflect sensible investments that the government intends to pursue.	政府的计划并不仅仅是对平民的承诺，也反映了政府希望实现理性投资的目标。


The budget calls for a surtax on incomes to help pay for increased social expenditures.	预算要求征收附加所得税，帮助支付日益增长的社会开支。


The lesson for other developing countries is that spending on the poor for health, education, safe drinking water, electricity, and the like, is not simply pandering; it is a serious and productive investment.	其它发展中国家的经验表明：投资贫困人口的健康、教育、安全饮水、电力等基础设施，其意义不仅限于政府救济，而是一种十分严肃、高效的投资。


It may be expensive to educate a child, but it is far more expensive to a society to leave a child without education.	教育儿童也许非常昂贵，但如何儿童得不到教育，社会付出的代价会更加高昂。


Uneducated children will be burdens on their societies for decades to come.	没有文化的儿童会在未来几十年内成为社会的负担。


It is far more rational to spend a little extra income now for a few years of schooling than face decades of social costs resulting from masses of uneducated adult workers!	现在多拿出一点钱推行几年制义务教育远比未来数十年面对大批没有文化的成年工人所付出的社会代价更为合理。


But even India, with its growing economy, cannot afford to make these investments out of national resources.	但即便印度经济有所增长，也无力从国家资源中拨出这笔投资。


India will need some help, at least temporarily, from richer countries and international institutions like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.	至少在有限的时间里，印度需要来自外界的帮助，这种援助可以来自较为富裕的国家，也可以来自世界银行和亚洲发展银行这样的国际组织。


The rich world should not be grudging in its help to India.	富有的国家不应吝惜对印度的援助。


By providing a few billion dollars per year in assistance now, the donor world would ensure a prosperous, democratic, and stable partner in India for decades to come.	倘若现在每年提供价值几十亿的援助，捐赠国就能够确保在未来几十年内，印度成为繁荣、民主而且稳定的伙伴。


In other words, it is time for donors to step up to help reform-minded yet poor countries like India, and, even more urgently, those in Africa that are similarly committed to economic development.	换句话讲，现在是时候做出努力，帮助印度这样希望改革的贫困国家。 更为迫切的是，非洲致力于经济发展的国家也急需得到同样的帮助。


Demonetization Dos and Don’ts	废钞的可为和不可为


CAMBRIDGE – On November 8, at 8:15 in the evening, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government announced that, at the stroke of midnight, all 500- and 1,000-rupee notes in circulation would no longer be considered legal tender, and would need to be exchanged for new 500- and 2,000-rupee notes.	坎布里奇—11月8日晚8:15，印度总理莫迪政府宣布，从午夜开始，流通中的500和1,000卢比钞票将不再属于法定货币，需要换成新的500和2,000卢比钞票。


Modi’s “demonetization” intervention affected 85% of the money in circulation in India.	莫迪的“废钞”干预影响了印度85%的流通中货币。


It was an unprecedented move, whether in India or almost anywhere else, and it is by far Modi’s boldest policy intervention to date.	这是一项前所未有的举措，不仅是印度，在全世界几乎所有地方都是如此，其程度之激进远超莫迪迄今为止的所有政策干预。


The Modi government is targeting the “black money” associated with tax evasion, corruption, and counterfeiting, and thus the drug traffickers, smugglers, and terrorists who engage in those activities.	莫迪政府的目标是与逃税、腐败和假钞有关的“黑钱”，因此针对的是从事这些活动的毒品贩子、走私犯和恐怖分子。


India’s tax-paying salaried classes and even the poor initially welcomed the policy enthusiastically, viewing it as sweet revenge against tax evaders who had stowed away their ill-gotten gains; they reveled in anecdotes of corrupt officials burning bags of cash or throwing money into India’s rivers.	印度纳税工薪阶层乃至穷人一开始热烈欢迎这一政策，将它视为对将非法所得藏匿起来的逃税犯的甜蜜复仇； 他们因为有传言说腐败官员将成箱的现金烧掉或扔进河中而欢呼雀跃。


But with each passing day, that initial cheer diminishes.	但每过一天，一开始的欢呼就会减去几分。


Public frustration is now mounting, because the government has failed to meet the demand for new printed notes.	如今，公众越来越失望，因为政府无法满足新钞需求。


Commerce in India – where the cash-to-GDP ratio is 10% – relies heavily on cash transactions, and informal-economy and small-business operations have now ground to a halt, owing to long lines and tight cash-withdrawal limits at banks and shortages at ATMs.	印度现金-GDP高达10%，其商业严重依赖现金交易，而非正式经济和小企业经营如今也已经陷入停顿，因为银行门前取现的队伍见首不见尾，而ATM机也严重短缺。


The near-term impact will be the equivalent of an “anti-stimulus” policy intervention, and the consequent drag on demand will be significant.	短期影响等于实施了“反刺激”政策干预，而随后的需求拖累将十分巨大。


Moreover, as real-estate prices decline, so, too, will household wealth.	此外，随着房地产价格的下跌，家庭财富也将缩水。


Although lower house prices will make new homes more affordable, the stock of occupied homes will far exceed new purchases in the near term, so the negative-wealth effect will overwhelm the gains.	尽管房价下跌让新房子变得更加平易近人，但售出房屋存量在短期将远超新购房量，因此负财富效应将压倒收益。


Given these large upfront costs, it is reasonable to ask how effective demonetization is in fighting tax evasion and corruption, and if there is a less costly approach to demonetization.	考虑到这些巨大的前端成本，一个合理的问题是废钞对于打击逃税和腐败效果如何，以及是否存在成本更小的废钞方法。


Back in 1976, in an article entitled “How to Make the Mob Miserable,” the American economist James S. Henry addressed the question of effectiveness, prescribing demonetization as a measure to undermine mafia operations.	1976年，在一篇题为《如何让暴徒痛苦》（How to Make the Mob Miserable）的文章中，美国经济学家詹姆斯·亨利（James S. Henry）解决了有效性的问题，他将废钞描述为打击黑手党经营之道。


But policymakers did not take his proposal seriously.	但决策者没有认真对待他的方案。


Henry’s proposal was, in his own words, “dismissed as either administratively impractical or as a one-shot action that would have no long-run impact on criminal behavior.”	亨利的方案，用他自己的话说，“因为不具备管理上的可行性或被视为无法对犯罪行为形成长期影响的短期行动而被否决。 ”


In a new book, The Curse of Cash, Kenneth Rogoff champions the elimination of high-denomination notes in order to fight tax evasion and criminal activity.	在新书《现金的诅咒》（The Curse of Cash）中肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）主张取消高面额钞票以打击逃税和犯罪行为。


Rogoff furnishes extensive evidence that making it costly to hoard cash would deter illegal activities.	罗格夫提供了大量证据证明增加囤积现金的成本能威慑非法行为。


While tax evaders also store their wealth in non-monetary forms, such as land, art, and jewelry, cash remains a leading vehicle for ill-gotten gains, owing to its inherent liquidity.	尽管逃税者也用非货币形式保存财富，如土地、艺术品和珠宝等，但由于现金具有天然的流动性，它仍然是非法所得的主要载体。


In other words, questions posed by Modi’s critics about the role of cash in feeding stockpiles of black money are misplaced.	换句话说，莫迪的批评者所提出的关于现金在导致黑钱存量增加的质疑搞错了对象。


That said, Rogoff proposes a different strategy to address the menace of black money – one that would be minimally disruptive and arguably more effective, at least in the long run.	尽管如此，罗格夫提出了不同的策略解决黑钱的威胁——这个策略破坏性很小，并且可以说效果更好，至少在长期是如此。


That strategy would depart from the Modi government’s intervention in two fundamental ways.	这个策略在两个基本方面与莫迪政府的干预有所不同。


First, it would be gradualist, implemented over several years.	首先，它是渐进的，需要多年时间实施。


Second, it would permanently eliminate high-denomination notes.	其次，它永久取消大面额钞票。


While this gradualist strategy would not punish existing hoarders, who would find creative ways to recycle their cash in the interim, it is more likely to improve tax compliance and reduce corruption over time, as large-denomination notes are permanently taken out of circulation.	这一渐进策略不会惩罚现有囤现者——他们会找到各种新奇的办法回收现金——但随着大额钞票永久退出流通，它更有可能增加纳税遵从度，逐渐减少腐败。


India’s current policy of replacing 1,000-rupee notes with 2,000-rupee notes undermines the long-term effectiveness of its policy.	印度的当前政策是用2,000卢比钞票替换1,000卢比钞票，这不利于���政策的长期效果。


Moreover, the gradualist approach is administratively practical, minimizes the collateral damage to the real economy and ensures that there is enough time to extend financial services and financial literacy to larger parts of India.	此外，渐进方针在管理上可行，它能让实体经济的附带伤害最小化，并确保有足够的时间将金融服务和金融知识推广到印度大部。


Over the last two years, the Modi government has made an impressive push for financial inclusion with its Jan Dhan program, which has facilitated the creation of 220 million new bank accounts.	在过去两年中，莫迪政府采取了Jan Dhan计划推动金融包容，取得了令人印象深刻的效果。


But many people who create accounts do not necessarily use them.	Jan Dhan计划促使银行账户新增了2. 2亿。


A 2015 World Bank study of bank-account usage and dormancy rates across different regions found that only 15% of Indian adults reported using an account to make or receive payments.	2015年，世界银行对不同地区的银行账户使用和休眠率做了研究，研究表明，只有15%的印度成年人报告使用银行账户收钱或付钱。


In this environment, a cash scarcity is economically crippling.	在这样的环境下，现金紧缺对经济十分不利。


Modi’s policy intervention is bold, and the economic principles motivating it are beyond reproach.	莫迪的政策干预十分果断，其背后的经济学原理也无可指责。


But a gradualist approach that includes the permanent withdrawal of large notes would have served the cause better, even if it did not generate the same “shock and awe” as the current policy.	但包括永久取消大额钞票在内的渐进方针的效果更好，即使它无法产生如同当前政策一样的“震慑”。


This will become more apparent as the large costs to the economy emerge over the next several months.	随着未来几个月废钞行动给经济造成的巨大代价逐渐出现，这一点也将变得更加明显。


India with 1.5 Billion People	印度和它的15亿人口


India's population is now a little over one billion; it will almost certainly surpass 1.5 billion by mid-century, overtaking China's population along the way before it stops growing.	印度现在的人口是10亿多一点，到本世纪中期其人口数量几乎肯定会超过15亿，在它停止增长之前将一直超过中国的人口总数。


But, as worrying as this might appear, this actually represents a considerable demographic slowdown: India's population more than tripled during the past sixty years. Moreover, the economy is growing much faster than before.	但是，就象人们担心这种情况真的来临一样，这其实也反映了人口统计学的发展缓慢：印度的人口在过去60年里翻了三倍多，而经济增长速度却比过去快。


So will India be able to provide a comfortable home for 1.5 billion people?	所以，印度是否有能力为15亿人口提供舒适的家庭生活呢？


I recently co-authored a study (with Tim Dyson, Leela Visaria and others) that concludes, with modest optimism, that while India can manage its population growth, it also faces a number of major difficulties.	我最近和蒂姆·戴森（Tim Dyson）、里拉·维萨里阿（Leela Visaria）以及其他一些人在合作搞一个研究，其中的结论是，即使我们乐观地假设印度可以解决人口增长问题，印度仍然面临一连串的主要困难。


True, poverty fell in the 1990's, while literacy rates and school attendance rose.	的确，在上个世纪90年代，印度的贫困率有所下降，同时受教育比率和入学率有所上升。


But they did so unevenly.	但它们的发展很不平衡。


Most of India's big poor states - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh - suffer from a combination of relatively slow economic growth and rapid demographic growth.	大多数印度的穷邦--如比哈尔邦(Bihar)、中央邦(Madhya Pradesh)、奥里萨(Orissa)、拉贾斯坦(Rajasthan)和北方邦（Uttar Pradesh）--都面临着经济发展缓慢但人口增长迅速的问题。


Only Rajasthan's economy has kept pace with the rest of the country; the other four have not benefited much from trade and regulatory liberalization.	除了拉贾斯坦保持着和其他邦同样的经济发展速度外，另外四个邦还没有从印度的贸易和监管放开政策中获益。


Similarly, states where birth rates fell earlier, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, are already enjoying shrinking school-age populations, whereas school-age numbers in Bihar will still be rising until around 2025.	那些出生比率早就下降的地区，如Kerala 和Tamil Nadu这两个邦，学龄人口已经开始减少，但比哈尔邦(Bihar)的学龄人口却还在上升，至少要到2025年这种上升趋势才有可能停止。


But the majority of children in Kerala and Tamil Nadu are already in school, while in Bihar they are not.	与此同时，Kerala 和Tamil Nadu这两个邦的学龄儿童基本上都在上学，比哈尔邦(Bihar)的学龄儿童就没有这么幸运。


These five poor states contain 45% of India's population, and 56% of its poor.	这五个穷邦拥有印度45%的人口，并占到印度穷人总数的56%。


Our projections indicate that in 20 years they will account for more than half the population and 75% of the poor.	我们指出，20年后这五个邦的人口将占到印度总人口的一半，穷人比例将达到70%。


Unless recent trends can be reversed, the growing economic and demographic gulf between India's North and East and its South and West will pose a serious political threat.	除非情况发生逆转，否则印度北部和东部、南部和西部之间的经济发展速度和人口数量差距将引发严重的政治威胁。


The environmental impact of 1.5 billion inhabitants forms the other major challenge.	15亿人口对环境所产生的影响是另一个巨大挑战。


India's past population growth has been accompanied - if much too slowly and unequally - by improving health, education, and economic welfare.	印度过去的人口增长总是伴随着健康、教育、和经济福利的提高而一起发展，虽然很慢而且很不平衡。


But the environment has been suffering.	但环境却一直在遭受破坏。


Our study concludes that India can have faster economic and industrial growth, higher rates of energy consumption, and a cleaner environment.	我们的研究认为，印度可以有更快的经济和工业发展速度，更高的能源消费比率，和更清洁的环境。


But this is not what has happened so far.	但这并不是目前的状况。


Air, soil, and water pollution has been growing, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths every year.	空气、土壤、和水的污染正在加剧，每年都导致几十万人口死亡。


The key to a clean future is clean technologies, whose costs have been falling steadily, and will continue to do so.	创造一个清洁的未来的关键是清洁科技，它的费用正在稳步下降，而且还将继续下降。


Sometimes these technologies pay for themselves and will be adopted. But Indian producers and transporters will not invest in them if they bear the costs, while the public at large receives the benefits.	有时这些科技项目自己承担费用并获得了批准，但印度的生产商和运输部门不会来投资这些项目，如果费用要他们承担的话。


In these cases, government will have to provide incentives, or regulate and tax.	而事实上，大众可以从这些科技项目中获益。


Unfortunately, however, when the main beneficiaries are the poor, corporations are powerful, and governments are weak or corrupt, good environmental practices are far from guaranteed.	在这样的情况下，政府将必须提供鼓励方案、规章制度和税收政策。 遗憾的是，大多数受益者是穷人，那些公司却很有势力，而政府软弱和腐败，因此，好的环境保护措施都远不能得到保证和实施。


There are nonetheless some notable success stories.	尽管如此，仍然有一些成功的例子。


Delhi's barely breathable air has become tolerable, following a big move to compressed natural gas in public transport, retirement of old vehicles, and higher emissions standards in new ones.	德里原先的空气几乎不能呼吸，但在公共运输使用天然气、老旧车辆被迫报废、为新车辆制定更高的尾气排放标准等一系列大的整改举措之后，现在德里的空气已经大有好转，而且清洁的空气并没有花费太多金钱。


Delhi's cleaner air hasn't cost much, yet other cities have been slow to follow suit.	现在印度其它一些城市正在效仿德里的做法。


The biggest problem is water pollution, with discharges into canals and rivers growing faster than treatment capacity.	印度目前最大的问题是水污染，因为污物直接排放进入运河以及河流，它们的生长速度已经远远超过实际的水污染处理能力。


At the same time, India's growing population will make increasing demands on water supplies - mainly for agriculture, which absorbs more than 80% of all the fresh water India consumes.	同时，印度不断膨胀的人口使用水量的需求大为增加，主要用于农业，占到了印度用水总量的80%。


If the population grows by 50%, the country will need to grow 50% more food, if it is to continue to feed itself.	如果印度人口增加50%，印度要想自我供应的话，就需要增加50%甚至更多的食物。


But there won't be any more water.	但是印度已经没有更多的水了。


In fact, there could well be less water than there is now, owing to pollution and climate change.	事实上，由于污染和气候的变化，印度的水只会越来越少。


So India will need huge increases in water efficiency.	所以，印度必须致力于大力提高水效能。


Here, too, there are examples of improvement.	这里有一些好的例子。


But there is also far too much populist politicking, with promises of free water for farmers.	不过，也有一些过于平民主义的拉拢活动，如答应给农场主无偿提供淡水等。


Doing what has to be done to ensure sustainable water supplies - controlling pollution, encouraging conservation, regulating and charging where necessary - is politically tough.	为了保证持续的水供应而必须采取的做法--控制污染、鼓励节约用水、制定规章制度、收取一定费用--是一种政治措施。


Eventually, however, India has no choice: there are already sporadic riots over water shortage, while water tankers move under armed guard in some cities, and virulent conflicts arise between communities over water-sharing.	最后的结果是，印度将无从选择：印度已经因为水短缺偶尔引发骚乱； 在一些城市水罐车必须在武装人员的监视下才能流动：社团之间因水问题而不断引发激烈矛盾。


In questionnaires, the poor say that an adequate water supply is their foremost need.	在一项问题调查中，穷人们表示，充足的水供应是他们最重要的需求。


But one fears that something more dreadful than the daily misery must occur before India's politicians decide to act.	但有人害怕，比这种日常痛苦更加恐怖的事情会在印度政府决定采取行动前发生。


Our study quotes three national water surveys.	我们的研究引用了三个国家级的水调查。


Each concludes that India can have a satisfactory water future.	每一个都认为印度可以有一个令人满意的水将来。


As with the other challenges posed by population growth, the issue is not whether the future can be managed, but whether it will be.	连同人口膨胀将带来的其它挑战，问题不是印度的将来能否被管理，而是印度是否会有将来。


India may or may not be the world's next economic wonder; but it will have to solve its age-old problems, as well as its new ones, if it is going to be a good place to live for the vast majority of its citizens.	印度可能、也可能不会是下一个世界经济奇迹，但如果印度要想成为大多数市民的良好居住地，它必须解决它长年积存的问题，以及它的新问题。


Time for India to Stretch its Wings	印度已到展翅时


WASHINGTON, DC – Imagine you are a parent with a large number of children and limited resources.	华盛顿—想象你是一位家长，你有很多孩子但资源有限。


Your oldest child is mature enough to move out of your home, but he does not want to.	你最大的孩子已经足够离家生活，但他不想这么做。


So he stays, consuming resources that his siblings desperately need.	因此他仍然待在家里，消耗他的手足急需的资源。


Is it right to allow your other children to suffer because their big brother is reluctant to strike out on his own?	因为老大不愿意自立而让你的其他孩子受苦是正确的吗？


A similar dynamic is playing out between the World Bank and the recipients of its International Development Association program.	世界银行及其国际发展援助（IDA）项目受助国之间也存在类似的情况。


IDA supports equitable growth in poor countries by providing low-interest, long-term loans and grants to national governments.	IDA为穷国政府提供低息长期贷款和援助以支持平等增长。


The program supports 77 of the poorest countries in the world – half of which are in Africa.	该项目支持着全世界77个最贫穷国家，其中一半是非洲国家。


It also provides assistance to one country that no longer deserves it: India.	它还为一个已不再应该得到援助的国家提供援助：印度。


At the end of the 2014 fiscal year, India officially graduated from the IDA program, because it was no longer poor enough to qualify.	截至2014财年年末，印度正式从IDA项目中毕业，因为它已经不符合贫困条件。


The World Bank sets a threshold for receiving assistance, based on per capita gross national income (GNI).	世界银行为接受援助设定的阈值基于人均国民总收入（GNI）决定。


In the fiscal year 2016, the threshold is $1,215.	在2016财年，该阈值为1,215美元。


India’s per capita GNI has exceeded the World Bank’s limit each year since 2010.	自2010年以来，印度人均GNI每年都超过了世界银行的阈值。


In 2014, it was $1,570.	2014年为1,570美元。


India is also considered creditworthy, giving it access to international capital markets.	印度也被认为是有信誉的，因此能够进入国际资本市场。


And yet India continues to receive $3.2 billion over a three-year period in transitional support from the IDA program, even as other poor countries plead for more funds.	但印度在三年的时间里从IDA项目中获得32亿美元转型支持，即使其他穷国正在恳求获得更多资金。


In the 2015 fiscal year, India was allocated 11.5% percent of the $14.6 billion provided by the IDA program, leaving the other 77 recipients to divide the remaining 88.5%.	2015财年，印度获得了IDA所提供的146亿美元援助的11. 5%，这意味着其他77个受助国只能分享剩下的88.


There is no reason that India should be given this exceptional treatment.	5%。 没有理由认为印度应该获得特殊对待。


The IDA funds it receives would be better spent in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the needs are greater and the financing options are more limited.	它所获得的IDA资金在撒哈拉以南非洲能够获得更好的使用， 那里的需求更大，融资选择也更有限。


If India’s FY15 allocation were divided equally among the remaining IDA countries, each would enjoy an average funding increase of more than 13%.	如果印度所获FY15配额平均分给其他IDA受助国，那么每个国家的平均受助规模可以提高25%以上。


Funding for just the top five Sub-Saharan African IDA borrowers – Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ghana – would increase by about $0.5 billion.	前五大撒哈拉以南非洲IDA借款国——埃塞俄比亚、尼日利亚、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚和加纳——可以多获得5亿美元。


This would be enough to finance 2,166 kilometers of paved roads, the distance from South Africa to Zambia in just one year.	这足够在短短一年时间里建设2,166公里铺装路面，可以从南非连到赞比亚。


One can only imagine the cumulative impact of sustaining such an increase in funding over the next 5 or 10 years.	并且，如果在未来5到10年中维持这一资金增速，那么其累积影响将不可限量。


The World Bank’s 2016 graduation policy review states that the funds being given to India are intended to smooth its transition from receiving IDA by preventing a sudden drop in financing.	世界银行2016年毕业政策评估指出，给印度的资金原本是为了防止融资突然下降，从而实现其平稳地告别IDA援助。


India can handle the anticipated drop off.	印度能够处理预料中的融资下降。


It is substantially wealthier than its Sub-Saharan peers, and it boasts nearly $400 billion in international reserves.	它比撒哈拉以南受助国富裕得多，经常标榜其国际储备高达近4,000亿美元。


Some argue that, because a large share of the world’s poor live in middle-income countries, the donor community should rethink how funding is directed.	有人指出，由于很大一部分全球穷人生活在中等收入国家，因此捐赠国应该反思如何分配资金。


Ravi Kanbur, a professor at Cornell University and a former World Bank chief economist for Africa, has called for resetting the IDA graduation policy.	康奈尔大学教授、世界银行前非洲首席经济学家拉维坎��尔（Ravi Kanbur）呼吁重新制定IDA毕业政策。


He points out that in a world in which inequality is increasing within states, using a country’s overall wealth as a gauge of poverty neglects millions of poor people.	他指出，在各国内部不平等性加剧的情况下，用一国的总财富作为贫困标准忽略了数百万穷人。


I agree.	我同意这一说法。


And yet, according to the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, India’s poverty rate, at 21.9%, is less than half that of Sub-Saharan Africa’s 44.4% rate – meaning that money is nonetheless better spent helping poorer countries in the region.	但是，据世界银行发展指标，印度贫困率为21. 9%，还不到撒哈拉以南非洲水平44.


The solution for countries like India is to find better ways to redistribute their wealth, so that more of their citizens can benefit from it.	4%的一半——这意味着资金用于帮助该地区更贫困的国家仍然是更好的用途。 印度等国家的解决办法是找到更好财富再分配办法，以使更多公民能够从中获益。


Wealthy countries have more options to help their poor.	富国有更多办法帮助穷人。


India, in particular, has access to other sources of development finance, including the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the newly launched Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the BRICS’ New Development Bank.	特别是印度，它能获得其他发展融资源，包括国际复兴开发银行、新成立的亚洲基础设施投资银行和金砖国家新开发银行。


IDA should be reserved for poor countries for which regular market access is blocked.	IDA应该用于不能进入常规市场的穷国。


This is not about India per se.	这不符合印度的情况。


African countries like Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana are expected to graduate soon – and should be prepared to adhere to the same rules when they do.	赞比亚、尼日利亚、肯尼亚和加纳等非洲国家预计很快就将毕业——并且应该做好准备接受同样的规则。


World Bank President Jim Yong Kim has urged donor countries to step up their support of IDA during this year’s triennial replenishment round, arguing that additional funding “will be essential for us to work on our goals to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity.”	世界银行行长金墉已敦促捐赠过在今年的三年一度资金补充轮中增加它们对IDA的支持，指出增加融资“将是我们实现结束极端贫困、刺激共同繁荣的目标的关键。


He listed both Africa and South Asia as important areas of focus.	”他将非洲和南亚都列为重点关注地区。


Sub-Saharan African leaders need to ensure that the World Bank’s words translate into action.	撒哈拉以南非洲地区领导人需要确保世界银行的言辞转化为行动。


They should lobby for accelerated and timely graduation for countries like India and make sure that the Bank lives up to its mission to serve poor countries.	他们应该由谁加快印度等国家的及时毕业，并企鹅宝世界银行坚守其服务穷国的使命。


Allowing countries to hang onto IDA for years, as India has done, means there is little recourse for those with much larger needs.	允许像印度那样在IDA项目中多年赖着不走意味着寻求更大的国家无法得到资源。


If the World Bank did not send 12 cents out of every dollar of IDA funding to India, it would have ample resources to invest in Africa – even if donations remained flat.	如果世界银行不将IDA资金的12%用于印度，就有足够的资源投资于非洲——即使捐赠规模保持不变。


IDA’s transitional support to India is scheduled to end in 2017.	IDA对印度的过渡支持将在2017年到期。


It is time for big brother to leave home for good.	是时候让老大为了兄弟姐妹们离家自立了。


This commentary was revised on May 26, 2016.	本文在2016年5月26日进行了修订。


The previous version had assumed a scenario in which India’s total (three-year) allocation was re-allocated to the remaining IDA recipients in fiscal year 2015.	此前本文假设的情景是印度（三年）总配额在2015财年重新分配给剩余IDA受助国。


The new scenario is more conservative and re-allocates only India’s FY15 funds to the remaining IDA countries in that same fiscal year.	新假设情景更加保守，只是将印度的FY15资金在同一财年重新分配给剩余IDA国家。


Social Benefits in the Age of Uber	优步时代的社会效益


PARIS – When it comes to compensation, the company you work for often matters more than how good you are at what you do.	发自巴黎——当涉及到工资问题时，你在哪个企业工作往往比你的工作技能更重要。


In 2013, the average employee of Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, earned $383,000 – much higher than what the best-performing employee in most firms can hope to take home.	在2013年，高盛投资银行的员工平均年薪为38. 3万美元——比大多数公司业绩最好的员工希望获得的还要高得多。


Pay differences across companies are considerable.	各个企业之间的薪酬差异是相当大的。


Research by Jason Furman, US President Barack Obama’s top economic adviser, and Peter Orszag, Obama’s former budget director, has found that rising pay differentials are the prime cause of widening US wage inequality in recent decades. They account for a larger part of the rise in overall income inequality than wage differences within companies or capital income.	美国总统奥巴马的首席经济顾问杰森福尔曼（Jason Furman）和奥巴马政府前预算办公室主任彼得·奥斯泽格（Peter Orszag）的研究发现，工资差距的增大是美国工资收入不平等状况在近几十年间日益扩大的主要原因，对总体收入不均造成的影响甚至比公司内部工资收入差异或资本收入差异的影响更甚。


At the other end of the spectrum, many labor-force participants are on temporary contracts, work for small firms, or are self-employed.	在收入光谱的另一端，许多劳动者只能签订临时合同，为小公司工作，或者成为个体户。


Some combine different jobs at the same time.	一些人需要在同一时间干几份工作。


If, as expected by many, the so-called sharing economy develops, their number is bound to grow.	如果所谓的共享经济能如许多人预期那样发展起来，这些人的数量势必会增加。


These workers do not benefit from job security and generally earn much less.	他们工作缺乏稳定性，往往收入也要少得多。


Emerging countries offer the example of blatant inequality between employees in the formal sector – companies like Petrobras in Brazil and Infosys in India – and those who work in the informal economy.	那些新兴国家就存在着正式部门——比如巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）和印度印孚瑟斯公司（Infosys）——员工与在非正规经济中工作的员工之间赤裸裸的收入不平等现象。


But even in advanced economies, where social protection is broad in scope, access to benefits is far from equal.	但即便是在那些社会保障范围较广的发达经济体，员工获得的福利还远未实现平等。


Employees of large, profitable firms tend to enjoy better health-care coverage, more generous pensions, and easier access to training.	大型高利润企业的员工往往会享受到更好的医疗保健覆盖，更丰厚的退休金以及更多的培训机会。


Moreover, some benefits – for example, parental leave – are conditional on seniority within a company.	此外，一些福利——例如，育儿假——则取决于员工在公司内的资历。


These are disturbing facts.	这是个令人不安的事实。


Talent and effort should be rewarded, but two people of equal capabilities and dedication should not be treated differently just because one happens to be an insider, with a secure job in a big, successful company.	天赋和努力应该得到回报，但两个拥有相同能力和奉献精神的人不应因为其中一个碰巧在某大型高利润企业拥有一份稳定工作而收入悬殊。


Such differences are questionable not only in terms of fairness; they are also economically inefficient, because they tend to limit labor mobility across firms and sectors.	而这种差异状况需要被质疑的地方不仅是公平；


Employees may think twice before leaving a company if they are set to lose valuable perks as a consequence.	这在经济学上这也是低效率的，因为它们往往限制了劳动力在企业和行业间的流动。


This prevents potentially positive matching of the skills needed by employers and the available supply of them. It also makes hiring first-class talent excessively difficult for small companies.	在离开一个公司之前员工可能会反复权衡，因为他们将失去丰厚的各类津贴，但这也就无法实现雇主所需技能的积极匹配并限制了相应的供应，使得小型企业很难聘请到一流的人才。


Public policy should not prevent successful companies from paying more and offering better working conditions.	公共政策不应妨碍成功的企业支付更多薪金并提供更好的工作条件，但应确保所有劳动者，不论其所处地位如何，都平等享有获得基本权益的渠道；


But it should ensure that all participants in the labor force, whatever their status, enjoy equal access to essential benefits; and it should aim at minimizing the losses that impede mobility across firms, sectors, and types of employment.	并着眼于减少阻碍人才在企业，行业以及各种就业类型间自由流动所造成的社会成本。


Obama’s health-care reform was an important step in this regard. But social-welfare reforms should go much further.	奥巴马的医疗保健改革已经在这方面迈出了重要一步，但社会福利改革不应止步于此。


For fairness as well as for efficiency reasons, rights and benefits should be attached to individuals, not to companies or employment status, and should be fully portable across sectors and jobs.	为公平以及效率起见，权利和利益不应取决于公司或就业状况，而是要与个人挂钩，同时应该可以在所有行业和岗位之间自由转移。


To attune its social-welfare system to a changing economy and reduce inequality among individuals, France is currently considering a system of so-called Individual Activity Accounts (IAAs).	为调整社会福利制度以适应不断变化的经济形态，减少个人之间的不平等状况，法国目前正在研究推行一个所谓的个人活动账户系统（Individual Activity Accounts）。


My colleague Selma Mahfouz chaired a committee that prepared a blueprint for such a system.	我的同事塞尔玛·马福兹（Selma Mahfouz）是筹备委员会主席并为此勾勒了一份蓝图


Put simply, every new labor-force entrant would be equipped with a lifelong individual account, thereby accumulating points in the same way airline travelers accumulate miles. They would earn them by working in both the private and public sector.	简单地说，每一位新参加工作的劳动者将配备一个终身个人账户，并以跟航空旅客累积里程积分类似的方式积累积分，无论在私营或公共部门工作都是如此。


Physically strenuous jobs would yield more points than office jobs.	体力劳动将比办公室工作产生更多的积分。


Pro bono community service would also generate points – perhaps more than paid jobs.	无偿社区服务也将产生积分——而且可能比在岗工作时获得更多。


Points earned could be spent on lifelong education and professional training, which would thus become independent from employment status.	获得的积分可以用于终身教育和专业训练，并因此独立于个人的就业状况。


Every person could decide to draw on her IAA to prepare for, or when making, a job change.	每个人都可以利用自身的个人活动账户来准备或进行工作变动。


Other financing could also be mobilized toward the same end.	其他的融资手段也可以被导向同一目标。


For example, an employee could decide to shorten the duration of his unemployment benefits and invest the corresponding points to benefit from better education opportunities.	例如，员工可能会决定缩短自己领取失业救济金的时间并将相应获得的积分用来换取更好的教育机会，并从中受益。


But financing education should not be the only purpose.	但教育融资不应该是唯一目的。


Points could also be used to help finance volunteerism or care for elderly family members.	积分也可以用来协助为志愿服务或照顾老年家庭成员筹资。


Points earned through hard toil could be spent on retiring earlier. Many more examples of partial fungibility could be imagined.	辛苦工作积累的积分可以用来换取提前退休，还可以想象出更多的资金替代用途。


Such a system would have three additional benefits.	这样的系统将有三个额外的好处。


First, it would help improve access to information.	首先，这将有助于改善获取信息的渠道。


Employees nowadays are often lost in the complexity of the various social benefits to which they are entitled.	现在的员工往往迷失在他们享有的各种纷乱的社会福利中。


The creation of IAAs and the adoption of a single unit of account would go a long way toward making things simpler, especially if all relevant individual information is available to users via a single smartphone app.	个人活动账户系统的创建以及单一账户的实施将逐渐令这个体系变得更加简化，尤其是当个人所有相关信息都可以通过一个智能手机App提供给用户的时候。


Second, IAAs would empower employees, especially the least skilled, who often perceive themselves as being in a state of subjection.	其次，个人活动账户系统将赋予员工，尤其是那些技能处于最低层级，认为自己总是在被动服从的员工以权力。


Together with information, the possibility to invest their social benefits, rather than only consuming them, would strengthen their autonomy and freedom of choice.	再加上更多信息的获取，让他们可以投资于（而非消耗）自己的社会福利，随之强化他们的自主权以及选择的自由。


Finally, the same accounts could serve as vehicles for public policy.	最后，同一账户可以作为公共政策的载体。


For example, early school-leavers could be endowed with points for later use in professional training.	例如，那些提早离开学校参加工作的毕业生可以被赋予一些可以在未来专业培训上使用的积分。


More broadly, instead of assisting people only when social risks materialize, public policy could support individuals throughout their working life, by adopting a more effective bespoke approach that fits peoples’ needs better than coarsely tailored schemes.	更宏观的是，与其在人们面临社会风险的时候出手协助，公共政策可以在个人的整个职业生涯扶持他们，采取适合人们需要的量身定制方案而非用一个粗糙的设计方案强加给所有人。


This may sound utopian; in a way, it is.	这听起来可能有点乌托邦；


But at a time when every digital service becomes more and more personalized, why should social policy remain confined to the philosophy and solutions of the twentieth century?	在某种程度上也确实如此。 但在当所有数字业务变得越来越个性化的时候，为什么社会政策仍局限于二十世纪的哲学思维和解决方案呢？


Putting out Indonesia’s Fires	扑灭印尼大火


MANILA – Every year, forest fires ravage Indonesia, causing massive environmental, social, and economic devastation.	马尼拉—每年，森林火灾都会肆虐印尼，造成巨大的环境、社会和经济破坏。


This year’s fires are the largest in nearly 20 years, destroying three million hectares of land and causing an estimated $14 billion in losses related to agriculture, forest degradation, health, transportation, and tourism.	今年的火灾是近20年来最大的，毁掉了三百万英亩土地，导致估计高达140亿美元的农业、森林、卫生、交通和旅游业相关损失。


Perhaps even more alarming is the climate impact.	也许更值得警惕的是其其后影响。


Indonesia is already among the world’s biggest carbon emitters.	印尼已经成为世界上碳排放量最大的国家之一。


Thanks to the fires, its daily average emissions this September and October were ten times higher than normal.	拜火灾所赐，今年9月和10月日平均排放量比正常水平高出十倍多。


On October 14 alone, emissions from the fires soared to 61 megatons – nearly 97% of the country’s total emissions for that day.	光是10月14日一天，火灾碳排放量就高达61百万吨——占当天印尼全国总排放量的近97%。


As a result, this year’s fires – coming just weeks before the current United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, where world leaders plan to finalize a global pact limiting carbon emissions – have underscored the urgent need for Indonesia and its development partners to act quickly to address this regional and global scourge.	结果，今年的火灾——发生在目前正在巴黎进行的联合国气候变化会议前几周，全世界领导人计划在巴黎会议上完成限制碳排放的全球协议——彰显出印尼及其发展伙伴急需尽快行动解决这一地区和全球灾难。


If we don’t, climate change will be even more difficult to combat.	若非如此，气候变化将变得更加难以治理。


The cause of Indonesia’s recurring infernos is the common practice of lighting fires to clear land for palm oil production, exacerbated by a prolonged dry spell partly attributable to El Niño.	印尼反复发生无法控制的大火的原因是焚林开荒种植棕榈油作物的常规作业，部分因厄尔尼诺造成的长期干旱则是助推因素。


While stricter enforcement of rules against deliberate fires in Indonesia’s 1999 Basic Forestry Law and the 2014 Law on Plantations will help, far more needs to be done.	印尼1999年基本森林法（Basic Forestry Law）和2014年造林法（Law on Plantations）等法律加大了治理故意放火的执法力度，这起到了一些效果，但还需要做更多的事。


The reason is simple: Indonesia’s fires aren’t your typical forest fires.	原因很简单：印尼的大火不是典型的森林火灾。


The ground holds peat – dense organic matter in the process of becoming coal.	印尼的土地富含泥炭——一种变煤过程中的高密度有机物。


When the peat ignites, the fire can creep beneath the surface and erupt somewhere else, days or weeks later.	当泥炭被点燃时，火焰在地表以下蔓延，几天乃至几周后才从另一处喷出。


And, like coal, peat stores massive amounts of carbon, which is released into the atmosphere when the land is burned, cleared, and drained to make way for plantations.	此外，和煤炭一样，泥炭储存了巨量的碳，当土地被焚烧、清理、放干以作种植之用时，这些碳就释放到大气中。


The scale of the fires reflects the difficulty of the enforcement challenge the authorities face.	火灾规模之巨反映出当局所面临的执法挑战之困难。


It is much cheaper for farmers to clear land with fire than by other means.	对农民来说，用火来开荒比其他方式便宜得多。


Moreover, farmers have few alternatives to operating palm oil or timber plantations.So every dry season, more and more land is burned.	此外，农民除了种植棕榈油作物或木材作物之外几乎没有其他生计。 因此，每一个旱季都有越来越多的土地被烧掉。


And every year, the fallout widens.	而每一年争议都会扩大。


An estimated 75 million people have been exposed to the smoke this year, and 500,000 in Indonesia alone are believed to have contracted fire-related respiratory illnesses.	今年据估计有7,500万人受到影响，仅印尼一国据信就有500,000人罹患与火灾有关的呼吸系统疾病。


Five key steps – all being actively debated in Indonesia – would help prevent the fires.	五个重要措施——它们在印尼都处于激烈争论中——有助于防止火灾。


For starters, the licenses awarded to develop peatlands should be revoked, and concessions should be taken away from landholders if there are fires.	首先，应该撤销开发泥炭地的许可，如果发生火灾，应该撤销地主的特许权。


Moreover, a moratorium on new forest clearing should be enforced through local communities.	此外，应该通过地方社区执行停止新的毁林开荒行为的措施。


Re-wetting peatlands and the restoration of degraded peat forests should be the next step, followed by the creation of early warning systems to detect and control forest fires.	下一步是重新湿润泥炭地和恢复被毁泥炭地森林，然后是建立早期预警系统监控森林火灾。


Finally, with the support of the private sector, Indonesia needs to establish a community-based forest management system.	最后，印尼应该在私人部门的支持下建立基于社区的森林管理制度。


Regional cooperation also holds great promise.	地区合作也能带来巨大的推动作用。


Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for 85% of the world palm oil market, have agreed to establish the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries, which will harmonize standards and promote environmentally sustainable production practices.	印尼和马来西亚加起来占了世界棕榈油市场的85%，两国已同意成立棕榈油生产国委员会（Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries）以协调标准、促进生产活动的环境可持续性。


To build on this, consumers and markets also need to send signals to companies that directly or indirectly support slash-and-burn farming.	在此基础上，消费者和市场还需要向直接或间接支持刀耕火种式农业的公司释放信号。


The 2014 Indonesia Palm Oil Pledge – in which five major producers committed to more sustainable solutions that preclude deforestation, respect human and community rights, and deliver shareholder value – is a good model.	2014年印尼棕榈油承诺——五家主要生产商承诺采取更加可持续的方案，阻止森林砍伐、尊重人道和社区权利、创造股东价值——是一个良好的模式。


Small farmers need options other than slash-and-burn farming to boost their meager incomes.	小农需要获得不同于刀耕火种的农业方法以增加他们微博的收入。


There is a clear need for an integrated land-management approach involving conservation, rehabilitation, investment in sustainable livelihoods, and institutional reforms.	显然，有必要采取包括保护、恢复、可持续生活方式投资和机构改革在内的综合土地管理方针。


There is also a growing consensus on the need for broader industry standards for sustainable production and processing of agricultural commodities.	另一个日益形成的共识是需要为可持续生产和处理农产品建立更广泛的行业标准。


Multilateral development institutions such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have a role to play in providing support to ensure that systems, capacity, and market-access initiatives are undertaken in ways that improve compliance.	多边发展机构，如亚洲开发银行能够帮助提供支持以确保制度、能力和市场进入方案能够以改善遵守情况的方式推行。


And national and local regulatory reforms that improve land-use planning, create incentives for forest conservation, and promote the use of low-carbon land must also be supported.	改善土地使用规划、形成森林保护激励、促进低碳土地使用方面国家和地方监管改革也必须获得支持。


Indonesia is firmly committed to clean, sustainable development.	印尼坚定地致力于清洁、可持续的发展。


It recently pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions by 29% through unilateral measures by 2030, and by 41% with international support.	最近印尼承诺在2030年前通过单边措施让二氧化碳排放量减少29%，在国际支持的帮助下减少41%。


Putting out Indonesia’s forest fires for good will be crucial to meeting these targets.	扑灭印尼森林火灾将是满足这些目标的关键。


For the sake of the planet, all of us need to grab a bucket.	为了地球的命运，我们都应该拿起水桶帮助印尼灭火。


Indonesia’s Forgotten Genocide	被忘却的印尼种族灭绝


CANBERRA – October marked 50 years since the Indonesian military launched one of the twentieth century’s worst mass murders.	堪培拉—10月份是印尼军方发动二十世纪最严重大屠杀50周年纪念。


Yet the anniversary passed almost unnoticed.	但这一事件几乎无人关注。


The massacre of some 500,000 members or sympathizers of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) during 1965-1966 is the least talked-about genocide of the last century.	1965—1966年，500,000印尼共产党（印尼共）党员和同情者遭遇大屠杀，这是上个世纪最鲜为人知的种族灭绝。


Lifting the veil on the bloodbath is long overdue, but those with a past to hide seem bound to resist this.	这次大屠杀的元凶迟迟没有纠出，但那些有见不得人历史的人似乎注定要抗拒这一点。


Organizers of Bali’s renowned Ubud Writers and Readers Festival have just had a foretaste of what may be a new round of active censorship, with local officials threatening to cancel the entire festival if proposed panel discussions of the massacres went ahead.	巴厘岛著名的乌布德作家和读者节（Ubud Writers and Readers Festival）刚刚预示了新一轮活跃审查，地方官员威胁说，如果计划中的大屠杀专家讨论活动按计划执行的话，就要取消整个活动。


The killings started in October 1965 in the aftermath of an abortive coup allegedly planned by the PKI.	杀戮开始于1965年10月一场失败的政变之后。 据称这场政变由印尼共策划。


The military reacted by portraying the party and its supporters as an atheist force of evil which had to be annihilated.	军方将印尼共及其支持者描述为邪恶的无神论势力，必须清剿。


The resulting carnage was deliberate, systematic, and spanned the country, with the most horrific and intense violence in Central and East Java, Bali, and northern Sumatra.	随后的大屠杀是一次有预谋、成系统、遍及全国，其中爪哇中部和东部、巴厘和苏门答腊北部的暴力最恐怖、最严重。


This year also marks the centenary of the Armenian genocide, about which successive Turkish governments have maintained an indefensible denial.	今年也是亚美尼亚种族灭绝一百周年。 一届又一届土耳其政府不可原谅地否认这一事实。


But at least the fate of the more than one million Turkish Armenians killed outright or death-marched into the Syrian desert in 1915 for their wartime “disloyalty” remains the subject of immense international scrutiny, research, and advocacy.	1915年，一百多万土耳其亚美尼亚人因为在战时“不忠”而被杀或逃入叙利亚沙漠九死一生，但他们一直受到密集的国际审视、研究和宣传。


By contrast, the Indonesian genocide remains the only killing of this scale that has not been the subject of minute international attention.	相反，印尼种族灭绝是绝无仅有的几乎没有受到国际关注的大规模杀戮。


Nor, apart from a largely ignored National Human Rights Commission report in 2012, has there been any significant domestic truth-finding, let alone a reconciliation process or reparations.	除了2012年国家人权委员会报告对此略有提及，便再无大规模国内寻找真相的努力，更不用说谅解程序和赔偿了。


The subject is avoided in history books, evaded by diplomats, and forms no part of domestic political discourse.	该事件没有写入印尼历史书，在外交场合避而不谈，更不属于国内政治话题。


The story begins with an abortive coup on the night of September 30, 1965, when junior military officers, claiming to be protecting President Sukarno from a right-wing clique, captured and executed the army commander and five other high-ranking generals.	故事始于1965年9月30日的一场流产政变，当时，下级军官号称要保护总统苏加诺免受右翼派系挟持，逮捕并处决了陆军司令和其他五名高级将领。


The following evening, Major General – later President – Suharto led a successful counter-coup.	第二天晚上，后来担任总统的陆军少将苏哈托领导了一场成功的反政变。


Suharto’s action marked the beginning of the end of the Sukarno era, and the birth of his “New Order”: the pro-Western, business-friendly regime that would govern Indonesia for the next three decades.	苏哈托的行动标志着苏加诺时代终局的开始，以及他的“新秩序”的到来：一个亲西方、亲商界的政权将统治印尼三十年。


Suharto and his associates immediately blamed the PKI as the masterminds of the “September 30 Movement,” and spread gruesome stories about the torture and mutilation of the executed officers.	苏哈托及其追随者立刻指责印尼共是“9月30日运动”的操纵者，散布关于被处决官员饱受虐待和摧残的可怕传言。


Army-led and militia-implemented mass murders soon followed.	接着，军方领导、民兵执行的大屠杀立刻跟进。


Controversy continues to this day as to who was actually responsible for the initial coup.	关于到底谁需要为最初的政变负责，至今仍有争议。


Candidates include Suharto himself (he certainly had some foreknowledge of events), acting with or without United States support, and even the British Foreign Office.	潜在的责任人包括苏哈托本人（他显然预先就知道了此事件），行动也许有美国甚至英国外交部的支持。


The balance of opinion among international scholars is that a small group around PKI leader Aidit was involved, but not in a way that even remotely implicated the entire party, or that could even begin to justify the bloody nationwide purge which followed.	国际学者中间的观点总体来说认为一小撮印尼共领导人艾迪特（Aidit）周边的人牵涉其中，但印尼共全党与此事基本无关，或绝对没有到值得在随后进行全国血腥清洗的程度。


With Suharto’s accession to power, Indonesia shifted almost overnight from being a strong voice for neutrality and anti-imperialism, actively courting the attention of the Soviet Union and Communist China, to becoming a more compliant partner with the US, which now saw Indonesia as a major stabilizing force in a volatile region.	苏哈托掌权后，印尼几乎一夜之间不再强势宣布中立和反帝国主义，不再积极地追随苏联和共产主义中国，而是变成了美国顺从的盟友。 如今，美国将印尼视为动荡地区的主要稳定力量。


As a result, there was no appetite among the US and its allies – including my own country, and the Australian government of which I was a member – to look closely, then or since, at how Suharto’s New Order consolidated its power.	结果，美国及其盟友——包括我的祖国澳大利亚，当时我也在澳大利亚政府任职——当时及此后都没有兴趣详细追查苏哈托的新秩序是如何巩固权力的。


Within Indonesia itself, even with the Suharto era long gone, anti-communist sentiment remains strong, survivors remain cowed, and demands for justice and accountability remain few.	在印尼国内，虽然苏哈托时代早已过去，反共情绪仍然十分高涨，幸存者仍然战战兢兢，呼吁正义和问责的声音仍然微不足道。


Things may, however, be starting to change, especially following the release three years ago of Joshua Oppenheimer’s extraordinary documentary film, The Act of Killing.	但是，事情可能正在发生改变，特别是在三年前约书亚·奥本海默（Joshua Oppenheimer）制作的杰出纪录片《杀戮行为》（The Act of Killing）播出之后。


Oppenheimer records, in meticulous and horrifying detail, a group of former death-squad leaders re-enacting the murders they committed – not, at least initially, in any spirit of confession or remorse, but rather to portray themselves as the heroes of a necessary process of national purification.	奥本海默一丝不苟地记录了令人震惊的细节，一群前屠杀领导人重新演绎了他们犯下的杀戮行为——至少一开始没有带着任何坦白或懊悔的精神，而是将自己描述为净化国家的必经过程中的英雄。


Some viewers are not persuaded of the film’s accuracy, or are troubled by the occasionally surreal character of the film-within-a-film structure adopted by the director.	一些观看者不相信该片的准确性，或者难以接受导演所采取的偶尔光怪陆离的片中片（film-within-a-film）结构。


But to me its essential truth resonates profoundly: The Act of Killing is the most haunting and emotionally lacerating documentary I have ever seen.	但对我来说，该片的基本事实引起了深远的共鸣：《杀戮行为》是我看过的最令人难忘、最动容的纪录片。


I hope that Oppenheimer’s film and its recently released follow-up, The Look of Silence, achieve the audience and impact they deserve – and not just at the world’s film festivals, but in Indonesia itself.	我希望奥本海默的影片以及最新发布的续集《沉默的样子》（The Look of Silence）能够获得配得上的票房和影响——不仅仅是在全球各大电影节，而是在印尼本身。


The Indonesian genocide – and it deserves to be so described, even if its impulse was ideological rather than ethnic, religious, or national – is an alarming case study in the politics of mass murder.	印尼种族灭绝——必须这样描述它，即使它的目的是意识形态而非种族、宗教或民族——是大屠杀政治的一个令人警醒的案例研究。


It shows what leaders can get away with when they demonize opponents, achieving conceivably defensible ends by morally atrocious means.	它表明领导人在妖魔化反对者能够逃避什么，通过无耻手段达到想要的辩护目的。


That is just one reason Indonesia’s campaign of killing demands much more of the world’s attention, and censure, than it has so far received.	这只是印尼的屠杀运动需要获得更多国际关注和谴责的一个原因，它目前所得到的关注和谴责实在太少了。


The Plant-Based Solution to Hunger	解决饥饿问题的素食方案


BERLIN – The way we eat in the industrialized world is unhealthy, unjust, and unsustainable.	柏林—工业化国家的饮食是不健康、不公平、不可持续的。


Far too much of the meat we consume is produced under questionable ecological, ethical, and social conditions.	我们所消费的肉食中有很多是在有问题的生态、伦理和社会条件下生产出来的。


And now our industrial model for meat production is being exported to the global south – especially India and China – where meat consumption is rising among these countries’ emerging middle classes.	而目前我们的肉食生产产业模式正在输出到南方国家——特别是印度和中国——这些国家的新兴中产阶级肉食消费日益增加。


Worldwide, 300 million tons of meat are produced each year, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that the annual amount will increase to 455 million tons by 2050 if demand continues to grow at the current rate.	全球每年要生产3亿吨肉食，联合国粮农组织估算，如果需求继续按照当前增长率增长，2050年肉食产量将增加到4. 55亿吨。


Such large amounts of meat can be produced only on an industrial scale, and at high social, political, and ecological costs.	如此大量的肉食只有靠工业规模生产才能实现，并且需要付出高昂的社会、政治和生态成本。


Meat production is a tremendously inefficient use of agricultural land, because considerably more plant-based food is needed to feed livestock than we would need to feed ourselves directly through a plant-based diet.	生产肉食是效率极低的农地使用方式，因为饲养牲畜所需要的植物食物远高于我们直接吃素所需要的植物食物量。


For example, producing one kilogram of chicken meat, pork, or beef requires 1.6, three, and eight kilograms of animal feed, respectively.	比如，生产一千克鸡肉、猪肉或牛肉分别需要1. 6、3和8千克动物饲料。


This pits farmers and animal-feed producers against one another in a fierce competition over land.	这让农民和动物饲料生产商互相激烈地竞争土地使用权。


Meanwhile, the production of soy – the world’s most important animal-feed grain – rose from 130 million tons in 1996 to 270 million tons in 2015, with 80% of output going to meat production, especially in China (70 million tons) and Europe (31 million tons).	与此同时，全世界最重要的动物饲料作物大豆产量从1996年的1. 3亿吨增加到2015年的2.


This expansion of soy agriculture, as a result of the growing demand for meat, is driving up land values.	7亿吨，其中80%的产量用于肉食生产，特别是在中国（7,000万吨）和欧洲（3,100万吨）。


Consequently, in the global south, common land is being privatized, rainforests are being destroyed to make room for agricultural cultivation, and international agribusinesses are expropriating the land that one-third of the world’s people still rely on for their livelihoods.	大豆农业的扩张——拜肉食需求增长所赐——正在推高土地价值。 结果，在南方国家，公有土地被私有化，热带雨林遭到砍伐以便农耕，跨国公司肆意掠夺三分之一世界人口生计所仰仗的土地。


Animal-feed production, and the intensive cultivation of agricultural land that it requires, is not only destroying ecosystems and reducing biodiversity; it is also fueling climate change.	动物饲料生产，及其所要求的农地密集栽培，不但破坏了生态系统、降低了生物多样性； 也助长了气候变化。


Worldwide, our industrial agriculture system produces an estimated 14% of the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions; including emissions indirectly linked to deforestation, and those associated with fertilizer production, increases that share to 24%.	全球而言，据估计我们的农业系统产生了温室气体总排量的14%； 若将与毁林间接相关的排放和与化肥生产有关的排放也包括进来，这一比例将增加到24%。


Moreover, the extensive use of fertilizers and pesticides – 99% of the world’s soy is genetically modified, and is routinely treated with pesticides – is also contaminating ground-water sources, destroying biodiversity, and eroding the soil.	此外，大量使用化肥和杀虫剂——全世界99%的大豆是转基因大豆，并且平时都要使用杀虫剂——也污染了地下水资源、破坏生物多样性和腐蚀土壤。


We can no longer ignore the external costs of this system.	我们不可继续忽视这一系统的外部成本。


If we are serious about addressing climate change and securing every human being’s right to proper nutrition and food security, we must challenge the presumption that an industrial agricultural model, let alone meat, is necessary to feed the world.	如果我们真要解决气候变化、确保每个人类获得合理营养和食品安全的权利，就必须挑战必须用某种工业农业模式（更不用说肉食了）养活全世界的假设。


In fact, that presumption has little merit.	事实上，这一假设几乎一无是处。


The UN Environment Programme estimates that, by 2050, an area between the size of Brazil and India will have to be repurposed into cropland if current food-consumption trends continue.	联合国环境规划署估算，按照当前粮食消费趋势，到2050年，必须让面积介于巴西和印度之间的土地转化为耕地。


But if the 9.6 billion people expected to inhabit the planet by then were to have a plant-based diet, industrial meat production could be abandoned and all of them could be fed without the need for any additional agricultural land.	但如果届时居住在地球上的96亿人口都吃素食的话，就可以放弃工业���食生产，不需要增加农地就能养活所有人。


For many people, the competition for land is a fight for survival.	对许多人来说，土地竞争就是生存竞争。


Land access, which is more unevenly distributed than incomes, is a deciding factor in whether someone suffers from malnutrition: 20% of households that experience hunger do not own land, and 50% of people who experience hunger are small-scale farmers.	土地的分配比收入还要不平等，能否得到土地是某些群体是否会营养不良的决定性因素：20%的挨饿家庭不拥有土地，50%的挨饿人口属于小农。


The industrial agriculture system’s production chains must be replaced with local, decentralized, and sustainable production chains.	工业农业系统的生产链必须替之以地方的、分散的、可持续的生产链。


It is incumbent upon governments to prioritize people’s right to food and nutrition above private economic interests.	政府有责任将人民的食物和营养权利置于私人经济利益之前。


People should not lose their livelihoods and food security for the benefit of agribusiness profits.	人们不应该为了农业企业利润而失去生计和粮食安全。


To move toward an ecologically sustainable and socially equitable agricultural model, we can leverage existing political frameworks, such as the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy.	要想过渡到生态可持续、社会平等的农业模式，我们可以利用现有政治框架，如欧盟共同农业政策。


As it stands now, large-scale industrial meat producers are profiting extensively from EU subsidies; but these subsidies could be redirected as investments in decentralized meat and grain production chains that adhere to a more sustainable model.	目前，大规模工业肉食生产商因为欧盟的补贴的利润丰厚； 但这些补贴可以转而用于投资遵循更加可持续的模式的分散化肉食和谷物生产链。


Doing so requires recognizing that realistic alternatives to industrial agriculture do exist.	这样做需要认识到工业农业的现实替代方案是存在的。


For example, “agroecology” – a system based on traditional and indigenous knowledge that is passed down through the generations – is easily adaptable to all geographic circumstances.	比如，“生态农业”——基于代代相传的传统本土知识的系统——能够轻松适应所有地理环境。


In fact, in 2006 Jules Pretty of the University of Essex found that this mode of production can increase harvest yields by 79%.	事实上，2016年，埃塞克斯大学的朱尔斯·普里蒂（Jules Pretty）发现该生产模式能够让产量提高79%。


But, to implement this shift, governments must ensure that all people have guaranteed access to land and potable water, and they need to create political frameworks to promote ecologically and socially just agricultural models – which, by definition, excludes industrial agriculture.	但是，要实施这一变革，政府必须确保所有人都确定能够获得土地和饮用水，并且需要建立政治框架促进生态和社会平等的农业模式——顾名思义，就是要排除工业农业。


The challenge of feeding every human being should not be viewed in opposition to – or as somehow ruling out – questions of social justice and the future of the planet.	养活所有人的挑战不应该视为社会正义和地球未来等问题的对立面——或者与它们互相排斥。


Poverty, malnutrition, and hunger are a result of politics, not scarcity.	贫困、营养不良和饥饿是政治而不是稀缺性造成的。


Industrialization’s Second Golden Age	工业化的第二个黄金时代


WASHINGTON, DC – “The golden age of finance,” the economist Barry Eichengreen has said, “has now ended.”	华盛顿特区——经济学家巴里•艾肯格林说过：“目前金融的黄金时代已经终结”。


If that is true – and let us hope that it is – what follows will most likely be a new golden age of industrialization.	如果这是事实——让我们希望这是——那接下来最有可能是工业化的新黄金时代。


Historically, except for a few oil-exporting economies, no country has ever become rich without industrializing.	从历史上来看，除几个石油出口经济体外，所有国家都是通过工业化才变富裕的。


Thus, all eyes nowadays should be on our economies’ real sectors.	因此，现在应该把注意力全部集中到我们经济的实体行业上。


Confronted by the global financial crisis that looms over Europe, political leaders around the world are waking up to a stark new reality: unless the developed countries stop relying excessively on financial deal-making and start to rebuild from the ground up, they will lose their current standard of living.	面对笼罩在欧洲的全球金融危机阴霾，世界各地的政治领导人逐渐意识到了一个残酷的新现实：除非发达国家不再过度依赖金融交易并开始东山再起，否则他们将无法保持目前的生活水平。


The global community must look beyond the eurozone and sovereign-debt crises and pay attention to the opportunity of structural transformation in the developing world’s real sectors.	国际社会不应该只关注欧元区和主权债务危机，还应该关注发展中国家实体行业的结构转型所带来的机遇。


By structural transformation, I mean the process by which countries climb the industrial ladder – their workforces move into higher value-added manufacturing sectors as their sources of production advance.	我所指的结构转型是各国通过这个过程在工业阶梯上往上爬——它们的劳动力进入附加值更高的制造业，这些制造业成为它们生产发展的源泉。


Throughout 2011, I was struck by the potential for less-developed countries – including in Sub-Saharan Africa – to emulate successful industrializing East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Vietnam.	整个2011年，我注意到，欠发达国家——包括撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地区的国家——具有模仿正在进行成功工业化的国家（比如日本、韩国、新加坡、马来西亚、中国和越南）的潜力。


Indeed, by focusing development efforts on the comparative advantages of poorer countries, we can rebuild confidence in the business sector and reinvigorate investment in job creation – not only in developing countries, but also in advanced economies.	实际上，通过集中发展较贫穷国家的比较优势，我们能够重建商业部门的信心并加大投资促进就业——无论是发展中国家还是发达国家都是如此。


The current global financial crisis, which is rooted in the advanced countries’ structural problems, requires investment and innovation policies, in addition to monetary or fiscal measures.	当前全球金融危机的根源是发达国家的结构性问题，除了货币或财政措施外，还需要投资和创新政策。


In advanced countries, research and development costs are quite high, because their technologies and industries are already in the vanguard.	在发达国家，研发费用相当高，因为它们的技术和产业都位居前沿。


By contrast, developing countries, including those in Sub-Saharan Africa, have the potential to expand their industrial sectors rapidly, because they can borrow technology from the advanced countries with little risk and at low cost.	相比之下，包括撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲国家在内的发展中国家具有快速扩大工业部门的潜力，因为它们能够以低成本从发达国家那里借用技术而不要冒什么风险。


So developing countries’ backwardness in terms of technology and industry means that they can grow for decades at an annual rate several times that of high-income countries before they close the income gap.	因此，发展中国家在技术和工业方面落后意味着，在消除收入差距之前，它们的年增长率将是高收入国家的好几倍并能够持续数十年。


This May, in Maputo, Mozambique, I delivered the United Nations University’s annual WIDER lecture on development.	今年5月份，在莫桑比克的马普托，我上了联合国大学的年度大讲堂，讲的是发展问题。


I explained how the winning formula for developing countries is to build up the same tradable industries that have been growing for decades in wealthier countries that have endowment structures similar to their own.	较富裕国家的捐赠结构与发展中国家类似，但其贸易产业已增长了数十年，我解释了为何发展中国家的制胜法宝是建立同样的贸易产业。


The pattern of flying geese is a useful metaphor to explain this idea.	飞天鹅模式是解释这个想法的有效比喻。


Beginning in the eighteenth century, the less-developed West European and East Asian countries followed their more successful neighbors: emulating a flying-geese pattern, they benefited from the leaders’ tailwind as they first industrialized and then became advanced countries themselves.	始于18世纪，欠发达的西欧和东亚国家追随其较成功的领国：居于领先地位的国家率先实现工业化，随后变成了发达国家，模仿飞天鹅模式，它们搭了这些领先国家的顺风车。


Large, dynamic emerging-market economies (particularly Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) that have industrialized quickly offer unprecedented opportunities for other developing economies to emulate their success – and thus to jumpstart their own industrialization processes.	充满活力的新兴市场大经济体（尤其是巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）的工业化非常迅速，这为其他发展中国家提供了前所未有的机遇模仿它们的成功，进而大幅提高自身的工业化进程。


China – once a “follower goose” – is on the verge of becoming a leader, with the potential to relocate 85 million low-skilled manufacturing jobs in the coming decade.	中国——曾经是“跟班的天鹅”——现在即将成为领头羊，在今后十年有可能创造8500万个低技能的制造业就业岗位。


The scale of this shift is huge when compared with the 9.7 million jobs that Japan created in the modern sector in the 1960’s, or South Korea’s 2.3 million modern jobs in the 1980’s.	相比之下，这种转变的规模是相当大的，在20世纪60年代，日本在现代行业中创造了970万个就业岗位，韩国在20世纪80年代创造了230万个现代就业岗位。


And a similar trend will arise in other emerging-market economies.	其他新兴市场经济体也将出现类似的趋势。


In fact, it is already happening: China’s outward foreign direct investment reached $68 billion in 2010, exceeding that of Japan and the United Kingdom.	实际上，这种趋势正在出现：2010年，中国的对外直接投资额达到了680亿美元，超过了日本和英国。


India, Brazil, Russia, and South Korea are not far behind.	印度、巴西、俄罗斯和韩国紧随其后。


Moreover, India’s outward FDI is heavily concentrated in the manufacturing sector, accounting for 42.7% of the total in 1999-2008.	此外，印度的对外直接投资重要集中在制造业，在1999年-2008年期间，占到了对外总投资的42. 7%。


For developing countries to benefit fully from industrial upgrading in China and other large emerging-market economies, their governments must identify tradable industries that are consistent with their latent comparative advantage.	发展中国家要充分从中国及其他新兴市场大经济体的产业升级��受益，其政府必须确定与其潜在比较优势一致的贸易产业。


They also must help private firms to resolve information, coordination, and externality issues in the process of industrial upgrading.	在产业升级中，它们还必须帮助私人企业解决信息、协调和外部问题。


Rapid industrialization in developing countries will require large imports of capital equipment from advanced countries.	发展中国家快速工业化将需要从发达国家进口大量的资本设备。


Given that developing countries have accounted for as much as two-thirds of global growth in GDP and imports over the past five years, focusing on how to foster development in their industrial sectors could benefit advanced countries by helping to boost demand, thereby pulling the world out of its economic malaise.	鉴于发展中国家在过去5年的全球国内生产总值增长和进口中所占的比重高达三分之二，关注如何促进其工业部门的发展有助于提高需求，从而使世界摆脱经济困扰，让发达国家受益。


In short, the imminent golden age of industrialization in developing countries will help to create jobs and spur recovery in advanced countries.	简而言之，发展中国家即将到来的工业化黄金时代，将有助于发达国家创造就业岗位并促进经济复苏。


The benefits of this new era will be two-pronged: it will contribute to the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals – the plan to cut world poverty in half by 2015 – and also will help to drive a global recovery.	这一新时代有两方面的好处：一方面，它有助于实现联合国千年发展目标——到2015年，将世界贫困人口减少一半的计划； 另一方面还有助于促进全球经济复苏。


Then, we may see a golden age for all.	因此，我们可能会看到一个对于所有人而言的黄金时代。


Industrial Policy Comes Out of the Cold	产业政策走出冷宫


WASHINGTON, DC – One of the best-kept economic secrets was strongly reconfirmed in 2010: most countries, intentionally or not, pursue an industrial policy in one form or other.	发自华盛顿特区——在这个2010年，一个秘而不宣的经济秘密再次得到了大力证实：大多数国家都在有意无意的推动各种形式的产业政策。


This is true not only of China, Singapore, France, and Brazil – countries usually associated with such policies – but also for the United Kingdom, Germany, Chile, and the United States, whose industrial policies are often less explicit.	其中不但有中国、新加坡，法国和巴西这些老面孔，还包括那些原本产业政策不甚清晰的国家，比如英国、德国，智利和美国。


Given that industrial policy broadly refers to any government decision, regulation, or law that encourages ongoing activity or investment in an industry, this should come as no surprise.	这现象一点都不奇怪，因为产业政策其实就是为刺激某一项产业的经济活动或投资而出台的所有政府决策，规定或者法律，上述国家也都陆续出台了相关政策。


After all, economic development and sustained growth are the result of continual industrial and technological change, a process that requires collaboration between the public and private sectors.	毕竟经济发展和可持续增长本来就是产业和技术不断更新换代的产物，而这个更新过程则需要公共和私人部门协同一致才能实现。


Historical evidence shows that in countries that successfully transformed from an agrarian to a modern economy – including those in Western Europe, North America, and, more recently, in East Asia – governments coordinated key investments by private firms that helped to launch new industries, and often provided incentives to pioneering firms.	历史告诉我们：那些成功从农业经济转型为现代经济的国家——包括西欧，北美以及近几十年来的一批东亚国家——政府都能与私人企业的相关投资统一步调以促进新产业的发展，还经常为那些产业先行者提供一系列激励措施。


Even before the recent global financial crisis and subsequent recession, governments around the world provided support to the private sector through direct subsidies, tax credits, or loans from development banks in order to bolster growth and support job creation.	即便是在最近的全球金融危机以及随后导致的衰退之前，全球各国政府都会通过各种方式（直接补贴，减税或者开发银行贷款）来支持私人部门，以达到促进增长和创造就业的目的。


Policy discussions at many high-level summits sought to strengthen other features of industrial policy, including public financing of airports, highways, ports, electricity grids, telecommunications, and other infrastructure, improvements in institutional effectiveness, an emphasis on education and skills, and a clearer legal framework.	在许多高规格峰会上的政策讨论都趋向于加强产业政策的其他方面，包括对机场、高速公路、码头、输电网，电信及其他基础设施建设的财政支持，提高行政效率，强调人才教育和技能，以及构建一个更加清晰透明的法律体制。


The global crisis has led to a rethinking of governments’ economic role.	最近这场全球金融危机迫使人们重新思考政府在经济中所扮演的角色。


The challenge for industrial policy is greater, because it should assist the design of efficient, government-sponsored programs in which the public and private sectors coordinate their efforts to develop new technologies and industries.	而产业政策所面临的挑战也更为艰巨了，因为它必须辅助构建一个高效的政府资助项目，使得公共和私人部门能够齐心协力，共同发展新科技和新产业。


But history also tells us that while governments in almost all developing countries have attempted to play that facilitating role at some point, most have failed.	但历史经验也表明，虽然几乎所有发展中国家都曾试图在某种程度上推动产业政策，但大部分都遭遇了失败。


The economic history of the former Soviet Union, Latin America, Africa, and Asia has been marked by inefficient public investment and misguided government interventions that have resulted in many “white elephants.”	前苏联、拉丁美洲，非洲和亚洲的经济史中都有类似的记录，效率低下的公共投资和错误引导的政府干预最终孕育出的就是许许多多的“大白象”（意指那些效率低下的巨型国有企业）。


These pervasive failures appear to be due mostly to governments’ inability to align their efforts with their country’s resource base and level of development.	这种无处不在的失误大多是源自于政府野心太大，脱离了本国的资源基础和发展程度。


Indeed, governments’ propensity to target overly ambitious industries that were misaligned with available resources and skills helps to explain why their attempts to “pick winners” often resulted in “picking losers.”	事实上，政府总是偏爱那些过度超前的产业，但却无法提供足够的资源和技术人员，这也解释了为何他们总想挑选“赢家”，最后得到的却往往是“输家”。


By contrast, governments in many successful developing countries have focused on strengthening industries that have done well in countries with comparable factor endowments.	与此相反的，那些成功的发展中国家政府都将目光集中在加强那些在拥有类似生产要素的国家中做得比较成功的产业之上。


Thus, the lesson from economic history and development is straightforward: government support aimed at upgrading and diversifying industry must be anchored in the requisite endowments.	由此看来，在过往经济史和发展所得到的教训其实显而易见：为了实现产业升级或创新的政府支持应当与必需的要素相结合。


That way, once constraints on new industries are removed, private firms in those industries quickly become competitive domestically and internationally.	只有这样，一旦对某项新产业的限制解除，与该产业相关的私人企业就能迅速在国内外产生竞争力。


The question then becomes how to identify competitive industries and how to formulate and implement policies to facilitate their development.	但接着又出现一个问题：如何定义一个有竞争力的产业，又如何规划实施相关政策以促进其发展呢？


In developed countries, most industries are advanced, which suggests that upgrading requires innovation.	在发达国家，许多产业都已经发展到了极致，这意味着继续升级必须依靠创新。


Support for basic research, and patents to protect successful innovation, may help.	而对基础研究的支持，以及对成功创新的专利保护都将起到积极作用。


For developing countries, Célestin Monga and I have recently developed an approach – called the growth identification and facilitation framework – that can help developing-country governments increase the probability of success in supporting new industries.	对于发展中国家来说，塞勒斯丹·蒙卡（Célestin Monga）和我最近发展出一种方法——名字叫发展鉴定与扶持框架（Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework）——来帮助发展中国家提高扶持新产业的成功率。


This framework suggests that policymakers identify tradable industriesthat have performed well ingrowing countrieswith similar resources and skills, and with a per capita income about double their own.	该框架建议政策制定者去识别出那些拥有类似的资源和技术，但人均收入两倍于本国的国家中那些发展势头良好并已投入商业运营的产业。


If domesticprivate firms in these sectors are already present, policymakers should identify and remove constraints on those firms’ technological upgrading or on entry by other firms.	如果在这些产业中已经有了国内私人企业存在，政策制定者应当识别并消除这些企业实现升级或其他企业进入该产业的限制。


In industries where no domestic firms are present, policymakers should aim to attract foreign direct investment from the countries being emulated or organize programs for incubating new firms.	如果这些产业目前还没有国内企业出现，政策制定者就应当吸引来自其他国家的国外直接投资以便模仿赶超，或是出台政策项目来孵化新企业。


The government should also pay attention to the development by private enterprises of new and competitive products, and support the scaling up of successful private-sector innovations in new industries.	政府同时还要关注那些私人企业在有竞争力的新产品方面所取得的进展，并支持私人部门不断增大在新产业中创新成果的比例。


In countries with a poor business environment, special economic zones or industrial parks can facilitate firm entry, foreign direct investment, and the formation of industrial clusters.	在那些商业环境不太好的国家，经济特区或者工业园将有助于企业进驻，外国直接投资以及产业集群的构建。


Finally, the government might help pioneering firms in the new industries by offering tax incentives for a limited period, co-financing investments, or providing access to land or foreign exchange.	最后，政府可以对那些新行业的先行者提供一定时期的税收鼓励，联合融资投资，或是在土地或者外汇方面提供方便。


Our approach provides policymakers in developing countries with a framework to tackle the daunting coordination challenges inherent in the creation of new, competitive industries. It also has the potential to nurture a business environment conducive to private-sector growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.	对于发展中国家的政策制定者来说，在创设一个有竞争力的新产业的过程中总会包含着种种艰巨的挑战，而我们的方法恰好提供了一个框架以应对这些挑战，同时也有助于培育一个有利于私人部门成长，创造就业和减少贫困的经营环境。


As economies around the world struggle to maintain or restore growth in 2011, industrial policy is likely to be under a brighter spotlight than ever before.	随着各大经济体都奋力在2011年维持或者恢复增长，产业政策所受的关注也将比从前更加多。


Given the right framework, there is no reason for it to remain in the shadows.	只要有了正确的框架，那么产业政策的应用将更为广阔。


Inequality and Discontent	不平等和不满


In the last two decades, the world as a whole has gotten richer, but, while some national economies have advanced sharply, others have fallen farther behind.	在过去20年中，世界总体而言变得更为富有。 但是，尽管某些国家的经济大幅增长，其他一些国家则大为落后。


The increase in aggregate wealth has not led to the abolition, or even reduction, of poverty.	总体财富的增加并未消除甚至是减少贫困。


Much the same is true within countries.	各国内部的情况也大体如此。


Almost everywhere, globalization has produced both a new class of multi-millionaires and an underclass comprising people who are not just poor in the statistical sense of earning less than half the national average, but who are excluded from opportunities that are supposed to be open to all.	全球化几乎在所有的地方既造就了一个新的百万富翁阶层，又产生了一个下层社会。 在这个阶层中，人们不仅在收入的统计学含义上只有全国平均水平的一半，而且还被排斥在理应向全体公众开放的机会之外。


Globalization’s dynamism has benefited many, but it has also increased inequality.	全球化的推动力造福了许多人，但同时也增加了不平等。


Is that necessarily a bad thing?	这一定是一件坏事吗？


There are many who think so.	许多人这样认为。


In fact, entire countries have a built-in egalitarian streak.	实际上，各国都有平等主义的理念。


They dislike the business leaders who take home huge sums even when they fail, and they hate to see poor and excluded people in their midst.	人们不喜欢那些即使是经营失败也收入丰厚的工商领导人，而且他们讨厌看到周围有穷人和被社会排斥的人。


But, while it is comfortable to live in the social-democratic world of Scandinavia, Germany, and other European countries, many of them have purchased their equality on credit from future generations.	但是，尽管生活在斯堪的那维亚、德国以及其他欧洲国家很舒服，很多国家都是从后代那里借贷购买了他们的平等。


Moreover, an egalitarian climate does not promote innovation and a sense of dynamic development.	而且，平等的环境并不促进创新和欣欣向荣的感觉。


Creative individuals tend to leave societies in which there is strong pressure not to be different.	具有创造力的人会离开那些重压要求不得与众不同的社会。


Inequality is not merely compatible with freedom, but is often a result of and stimulus for freedom.	不平等不仅仅是与自由相容的，而且也经常是自由的结果和推动力。


Is that the choice we have to make then: freedom or equality?	那么，我们是否就应该在自由或者平等之间作出选择呢？


Things are not quite so simple.	事情没有那么简单。


A free society recognizes two limits to economic and general inequality.	自由社会承认对经济和整体不平等的两个限制。


Both raise quite difficult practical questions, though they are clear in principle.	尽管两者在原则上都很清楚，但是他们都提出了十分困难的实际问题。


Inequality is incompatible with freedom if it limits individuals’ chances of participation in the political community, in the market, and in civil society.	如果不平等限制个人参与政治社区、市场以及公民社会的机会，那么，它就与自由互不兼容。


At the lower end of the social scale, this raises the old and vexing question of equality of opportunity.	在社会阶层的低端，不平等引发了古老而又难以回答的有关机会平等的问题。


What is clear is that everyone must have access to elections and political parties, to education and the labor market, and to the associations of civil society.	清楚不过的是，每个人都应该有权参加选举、参与政治党派、获得教育和工作并且具有公民社会结社的权利。


In short, citizenship in the full sense of the word requires basic rights and the ability to enforce them.	简而言之，完整的公民含义要求基本权利以及实施这些权利的能力。


It also requires a basic economic status, including an income guarantee, which can be provided in a variety of ways.	它还要求基本经济地位，包括收入保障。 收入保障可以通过不同方式实现。


One difficult question is where, exactly, to draw the line that defines the basic status to which all citizens are entitled.	其中一个困难问题是，应该如何确切地划定所有公民都享有的基本地位。


In most countries, it should probably be higher than it is now.	在大多数国家，基本地位可能应该再高一点。


Another difficult question is how the basic status is to be guaranteed.	另一个困难问题是，基本地位如何得以保障。


The debate about individual income supplements versus general public services has become lively everywhere.	有关个人收入补贴与整体公共服务的辩论在世界各地都变得激烈。


It may well be resolved with different answers that accord with different countries’ traditions, although tax credits and similar additions to people’s incomes are more compatible with free societies.	尽管税收抵免以及类似的增加人们的收入更加符合自由社会，但是，这个问题可以通过不同的答案解决，而这些答案又符合各国的传统。


At the upper end of the social and economic scale, a different issue arises.	在社会和经济阶层的上端，出现了一个不同的问题。


Many people object to business managers who take away in pay, bonuses, and stock options hundreds of millions of dollars from their companies.	许多人反对工商领导人从他们的公司拿走数以亿计美元的工资、奖金以及股票期权。


Indeed, there is a legitimate question whether the behavior of today’s capitalists promotes the general acceptance of capitalism.	确实，当今资本家们的行为是否助长了公众对资本主义的认同确实值得疑问。


But individual wealth becomes a problem only if and when it can be used to restrict others’ chances of participation.	但是，个人财富只有在被利用限制其他人的参与机会时才成为一个问题。


When wealth turns into unchecked power, something must be done to restrict it.	当财富成为为所欲为的权利时，必须予以限制。


What has come to be called money laundering, that is, the attempt to turn illicit gains into legitimate riches, provides one example of the need for action.	所谓洗钱，也就是试图将非法所得变为合法财富就是一个需要采取行动的例子。


There are others, including the question of inheritance taxes, which have long been regarded as a necessary component of a free society.	还有其他例子，包括遗产税问题，长久以来都被认为是自由社会的必要组成部分。


Nevertheless, while a free society recognizes limits to inequality, it also accepts that inequality exists, for it provides hope for many by showing what one might achieve with ability and luck – or perhaps even luck alone.	然而，尽管自由社会承认对于不平等的限制，它同时还接受不平等的存在，因为不平等通过展示具有能力和运气，有时甚至只要运气，一个人所可以取得的成就来为许多人提供希望。


Inequality adds color and variety to societies; it is one of the marks of lively, flexible, and innovative countries.	不平等给社会添滋添色，它是充满活力、灵活以及创新国家的标志之一。


It is thus not bad in itself, even if its excesses must be capped in the name of citizenship for all.	因此，它本身并不坏，即使是过度不平等必须以全体公民的名义加以限制。


Social exclusion and personalized power through wealth are always unacceptable.	社会排斥以及通过财富个人化的权力总是无法令人接受的。


But if we want freedom, then social and economic inequalities are a legitimate, and necessary, price to pay.	但是，如果我们想要自由，那么，社会和经济不平等就是一个合理的以及必要的代价。


Inequality on the March	不平等横行


How much should we worry about inequality?	我们应当在多大程度上担心社会不平等呢？


Answering that question requires that we first answer another question: “Compared to what?”	回答这个问题要求我们首先回答另一个问题，那就是，与什么相比？


What is the alternative against which to judge the degree of inequality that we see?	有何东西可以代替我们判断我们目睹的不平等程度呢？


Florida is a much more materially unequal society than Cuba.	佛罗里达在物质上是一个比古巴远远更为不平等的社会。


But the right way to look at the situation – if Florida and Cuba are our alternatives – is not to say that Florida has too much inequality, but that Cuba has much too much poverty.	但是，如果佛罗里达和古巴是我们的选择的话，那么，正确的分析办法并非是说佛罗里达贫富差距悬殊，而是古巴过于贫困。


On the global level, it is difficult to argue that inequality is one of the world’s major political-economic problems.	在全球范围内，强调不平等是当今世界主要的政治经济问题是有困难的。


It is hard, at least for me, to envision alternative political arrangements or economic policies over the past fifty years that would have transferred any significant portion of the wealth of today’s rich nations to today’s poor nations.	至少对于我来说，很难设想在过去五十年中有什么其他政治制度或者经济政策可以将当今富有国家的财富主要部分转移到今天的穷国中。


I can easily envision alternatives, such as Communist victories in post-World War II elections in Italy and France that would have impoverished nations now in the rich North.	我可以轻而易举地想象出其他选择，例如二战结束后共产党在意大利和法国获胜从而导致现在北方富国的贫困。


I can also envision alternatives that would have enriched poor nations: Deng Xiaoping becoming China’s leader in 1956 rather than 1976 would have done the job there.	我也可以想象可以让穷国变富的选择，那就是，邓小平在1956年而非1976年成为中国领导人就可能让中国变得富有。


But alternatives that would have made the South richer at the price of reducing the wealth of the North would require a wholesale revolution in human psychology.	但是，那些以减少北方富有国家财富为代价让南方穷国更为富有的选择则会要求人类心理方面翻天覆地的革命。


Nor should we worry a great deal that some people are richer than others.	我们也不应当担心某些人比其他人更为富有。


Some people work harder, apply their intelligence more skillfully, or simply have been lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time.	某些人更为努力，更为有技巧地运用他们的聪明才智，或者仅仅是极为幸运地在恰当的时机处在了一个恰当的位置。


But I don’t see what alternative political-economic arrangements could make individuals’ relative wealth closely correspond to their relative moral or other merit.	但是我并未能发现有什么其他政治经济制度可以让个人的相对财富紧密地符合其相对的德行和其他才能。


The problems that can be addressed are those of poverty and social insurance—of providing a safety net—not of inequality.	可以得到解决的问题是贫困和社会保险，或者提供一个安全网，而不是不平等。


But on the level of individual societies, I believe that inequality does loom as a serious political-economic problem.	但是，就单个社会而言，我相信不平等的确构成一个严重的政治经济问题。


In the United States, the average earnings premium received by those with four-year college degrees over those with no college has gone from 30% to 90% over the past three decades, as the economy’s skill requirements have outstripped the educational system’s ability to meet them.	在美国，过去三十年中，由于经济对技能的要求超过了教育体系满足它们的能力，因此，拥有四年大学学历的人的平均收入溢价与没有大学学历的人相比从30%上升到90%。


Because the required skills acquired through formal education have become relatively scarcer, the education premium has risen, underpinning a more uneven distribution of income and wealth.	由于通过正式教育获得的必要技能便得相对稀少，教育加付上升，进而加固了收入和财富的不均衡分配。


Ceci Rouse and Orley Ashenfelter of Princeton University report that they find no signs that those who receive little education do so because education does not pay off for them: if anything, the returns to an extra year of schooling appear greater for those who get little education than for those who get a lot.	普林斯顿大学的罗斯和阿申费尔特二人提出的报告说，他们并没有发现证据表明那些接受很少教育的人之所以这样，是由于对于他们而言读书无用。 多读一年的书对于读书很少的人来说要比读书很多的人回报要大。


A greater effort to raise the average level of education in America would have made the country richer and produced a more even distribution of income and wealth by making educated workers more abundant and less-skilled workers harder to find – and thus worth more on the market.	进一步努力提高美国的平均教育水平将会通过产生更多的受过教育的工人以及难以寻觅较低技能的工人、从而让他们在市场上更加值钱而让美国更为富有并且产生更为均衡的收入和财富分配。


Likewise, America’s corporate CEO’s and their near-peers earn ten times more today than they did a generation ago.	同样，美国企业的首席执行官们及其地位接近的人挣得钱比一代人以前多十倍。


This is not because a CEO’s work effort and negotiation and management skills are ten times more valuable nowadays, but because other corporate stakeholders have become less able to constrain top managers and financiers from capturing more of the value-added.	这并不是因为现在的首席执行官的工作努力程度、谈判以及管理技能的价值超过十倍，而是因为其他企业利益相关者更为无力约束顶级的经理和金融家获取更多的附加值。


Similar patterns are found elsewhere.	在其他地方也可以找到类似的模式。


Within each country, the increase in inequality that we have seen in the past generation is predominantly a result of failures of social investment and changes in regulations and expectations, and has not been accompanied by any acceleration in the overall rate of economic growth.	在每个国家中，我们在过去一代人时间中所看到的不平等的加剧主要是因为社会投资以及规范和期望改变失败的结果，而且，这也没有伴随以总体经济增长率的加速。


For the most part, it looks like these changes in economy and society have not resulted in more wealth, but only in an upward redistribution of wealth—a successful right-wing class war.	在绝大程度上而言，这看起来好像是这些经济和社会上的变化并未带来更多的财富，而是向上的财富重新分配，也就是一场成功的右翼阶级战争。


This kind of inequality should be a source of concern.	这种不平等理应引起我们的关切。


Bill Gates, Paul Allen, Steve Ballmer, and the other millionaires and billionaires of Microsoft are brilliant, hardworking, entrepreneurial, and justly wealthy.	比尔·盖茨、保尔·阿兰、鲍莫尔以及微软公司其他的百万富翁和亿万富翁们是杰出的、努力工作、具有创业精神，因此也就理所当然地富有。


But only the first 5% of their wealth can be justified as an economic incentive to encourage entrepreneurship and enterprise.	但是，他们的财富只有5%可以被正当地视为是鼓励创业精神的经济激励。


The next 95% would create much more happiness and opportunity if it was divided evenly among US citizens or others than if they were to consume any portion of it.	至于剩下的95%，如果能够在美国公民和其他人中均衡地分割，而非用于消费，那么，这将创造更大的幸福和机会。


An unequal society cannot help but be an unjust society.	一个不平等的社会注定是一个不公正的社会。


The most important item that parents in any society try to buy is a head start for their children.	任何社会中父母试图购买的最为重要的东西就是让他们的孩子先拔头筹。


And the wealthier they are, the bigger the head start.	父母越富有，孩子就越发先声夺人。


Societies that promise equality of opportunity thus cannot afford to allow inequality of outcomes to become too great.	许诺机会平等的社会因此不能允许结果的不平等变得过于悬殊。


The Inequality Puzzle	不平等性之谜


NEW YORK – Over the past decade, income inequality has come to be ranked alongside terrorism, climate change, pandemics, and economic stagnation as one of the most urgent issues on the international policy agenda.	纽约—过去十年，收入不平等性与恐怖主义、气候变化、传染病和经济停滞一道，成为国际政策议程上最紧迫的问题。


And yet, despite all the attention, few potentially effective solutions have been proposed.	但是，尽管广受关注，但人们几乎没有拿出任何可能有效的解决方案建议。


Identifying the best policies for reducing inequality remains a puzzle.	识别降低不平等性的最佳政策仍是一个谜题。


To understand why the problem confounds policymakers, it is helpful to compare the world’s two largest economies.	要理解为何这个问题让决策者如此混乱，比较世界上最大的两个经济体有所助益。


The United States is a liberal democracy with a market-based economy, in which the factors of production are privately owned.	美国是自由民主国家，采取市场经济，生产要素为私人所有。


China, by contrast, is governed by a political class that holds democracy in contempt.	相反，中国由一个藐视民主的政治阶级治理。


Its economy – despite decades of pro-market reforms – continues to be defined by heavy state intervention.	其经济——尽管经历了几十年市场改革——仍由大手笔的国家干预左右。


But despite their radically different political and economic systems, the two countries have roughly the same level of income inequality.	但尽管在政治和经济制度方面截然不同，中美两国的不平等性水平却不相上下。


Each country’s Gini coefficient – the most commonly used measure of income equality – is roughly 0.47.	两国基尼系数——最常用的收入平等性指标——都在0. 47左右。


In one important way, however, their situations are very different.	但是，在一个重要角度上，它们的情况非常不同。


In the US, inequality is rapidly worsening.	在美国，不平等性正在迅速恶化。


In 1978, the top 1% of the US population was ten times richer than the rest of the country.	1978年，美国最顶层1%人口比其他美国人富裕十倍。


Today, the average income of the top 1% is roughly 30 times that of the average person in the remaining 99%.	如今，最顶层1%美国人的平均收入大约是其余99%的平均收入的30 倍。


During the same period, inequality in China has been declining.	与此同时，中国的不平等性一直在下降。


This poses a challenge for policymakers.	这给决策者带来一个挑战。


Free market capitalism has proved itself to be the best system for driving income growth and creating a large economic surplus.	自由市场资本主义已经证明它是驱动经济增长、创造巨大经济盈余的最佳制度。


And yet, when it comes to the distribution of income, it performs far less well.	但是，在收入分配方面，它的表现就差多了。


Most democratic societies have attempted to address the problem through left-leaning redistributive policies or right-leaning supply-side approaches.	大部分民主社会都尝试过通过左倾再分配政策或右倾供给端方针解决这一问题。


But neither seems to be particularly effective.	但没有一套政策起到了特别有效的作用。


In the US, income inequality has steadily widened under both Democratic and Republican administrations.	在美国，收入不平等性在民主党和共和党执政期间都稳步扩大。


China’s success in this arena points to the possible advantages of its heavy-handed system – a conclusion that makes many Western policymakers uncomfortable.	中国在这方面的成功表明其大手笔干预制度可能也有优势——这一结论可能让许多西方决策者感到不安。


One aspect of the discussion, however, need not be so controversial.	但是，这一讨论的一个方面不必如此有争议。


Adding to the challenges of the policy debate are assertions that inequality is unimportant.	除了政策争论的挑战，有人主张不平等性根本不重要。


If a rising tide is lifting all boats, the thinking goes, it doesn’t matter that some may be rising more slowly than others.	这一观点认为，如果潮水让所有船只都倾覆，那么涨潮速度快慢是无关紧要的。


Those who argue for de-emphasizing income inequality maintain that public policy should seek to ensure that all citizens enjoy basic living standards – nutritious food, adequate shelter, quality health care, and modern infrastructure – rather than aiming to narrow the gap between rich and poor.	主张不要过于强调不平等性问题者认为，公共政策应该寻求保证所有公民获得基本生活水平——营养充足的食物、足够的居所、高质量的医疗和现代基础设施——而不是着眼于缩小贫富差距。


Indeed, some contend that income inequality drives economic growth and that redistributive transfers weaken the incentive to work, in turn depressing productivity, reducing investment, and ultimately harming the wider community.	事实上，有人认为收入不平等性推动经济增长，而再分配转移支付削弱工作激励，反过来抑制生产率、降低投资，最终伤及整个社会。


But societies do not flourish on economic growth alone.	但社会繁荣并非只靠经济增长。


They suffer when the poor are unable to see a path toward betterment.	当穷人连改善的办法都看不到时，社会就要出问题。


Social mobility in the US (and elsewhere) has been declining, undermining faith in the “American Dream” (which includes the belief that hard work will make one better off than one’s parents).	美国（和其他地区）的社会流动性一直在降低，破坏了“美国梦”信念（相信努力工作能让人获得比父辈更好的生活）。


Over the past 30 years, the probability that an American born into the bottom quartile of the income distribution will end his life in the top quartile has more than halved.	在过去30年中，出身于收入分配最底层四分之一的美国人最终跻身顶层四分之一的概率下降了一大半。


To be sure, much progress has been made.	诚然，我们取得了很大的进步。


Over the past 50 years, as countries such as China and India posted double-digit economic growth, the global Gini coefficient dropped from 0.65 to 0.55.	在过去50年终，中国和印度等国家实现了两位数经济增长，从而让全球基尼系数从0. 65下降到 0.


But further headway is unlikely – at least for the foreseeable future.	55。 但更进一步看上去不太可能——至少在可预见的未来是如此。


Economic growth in most emerging economies has slowed below 7%, the threshold needed to double per capita income in a single generation.	大部分新兴经济体的经济增长放缓至7%以下，而7%是人均收入在一代人的时间内翻一番的所需要达到的阈值。


In many countries, the rate has fallen below the point at which it is likely to make a significant dent in poverty.	在许多国家，增长率已经下降到远低于可以大幅降低贫困的水平。


This bleak economic outlook has serious consequences.	如此黯淡的经济前景会造成严重后果。


Widening inequality provides fodder for political unrest, as citizens watch their prospects decline.	随着公民眼看着自己前途渺茫，恶化的不平等性将成为政治骚乱的温床。


Reports that just 158 wealthy donors provided half of all campaign contributions in the first phase of the 2016 US presidential election cycle highlight the worry that income inequality can lead to political inequality.	报道指出，在2016年美国总统选举周期的第一阶段，158位富豪捐赠者贡献了全部竞选献金的一半，这凸显出收入不平等可能导致政治不平等的担忧。


Globally, the slowdown in economic convergence has similar implications, as richer countries maintain their outsize influence around the world – leading to disaffection and radicalization among the poor.	全球而言，经济趋同的放缓具有类似的影响，富裕国家保持其在全世界的巨大影响力——导致穷国的不满和激进化。


As difficult a puzzle as income inequality may seem today, failing to solve it could lead to far more severe challenges.	如今，收入不平等性是一个困难的谜题，而无法解决它可能导致远为严重的挑战。


In Europe We Distrust	没有信任的欧洲


MADRID – For decades, critics of the European Union have spoken about a democratic deficit.	马德里——几十年来，欧盟的批评者一直在大谈民主赤字。


I never accepted that reproach of the EU and its institutions, but I do see a new and dangerous deficit within the Union – a trust deficit, both among governments, and among the citizens of various member countries. Indeed, if today’s euro banknotes included a motto, as dollars do, it could well be, “In Europe We Distrust.”	我对这种对欧盟及其制度的批评向来不屑一顾，但如今，我确实看到欧盟内部存在一种新的危险赤字——信任赤字，不光存在于政府间，也存在于各成员公民间。


This lack of trust has brought the eurozone to the cusp of implosion, and is calling into question the very future of European unity.	缺乏信任把欧元区推向了崩溃边缘，也把欧洲统一大业逼到了墙角。


The arc of EU history seems to be bending to catastrophe – the sort of periodic European disaster that integration was intended to prevent.	欧盟的历史之弦真的快要绷断了，这正是欧洲一体化所欲尽力防止的周期性欧洲灾难。


Grandiloquent as it might sound, the disintegration of the euro and the disarray that would engulf the European project, not to speak of the global repercussions, would unleash comparable devastation.	听起来或许有些夸张，欧元的瓦解和可能让欧洲工程中途夭折的失序——姑且不论由此引起的国际反响——将引发不逊于任何历史先例的灾难。 实际上，如果欧元像美元那样有一个座右铭的话，那将是：“我们不相信欧洲”。


But few official pronouncements, let alone policies, are addressing Europe’s deficit of trust and credibility.	但是，我们却看不到多少修正欧洲信任和信誉赤字的正是宣言，更不用说政策了。


The current crisis has exposed the original lacunae and widening cracks in the compact between Europe’s citizens and EU institutions, between Europe’s north and south, and between its peoples and its elites.	最近的危机暴露了一开始就存在的漏洞，也扩大了欧洲公民和欧盟制度之间、北欧和南欧之间以及欧洲各民族和精英阶层之间的裂缝。


Indeed, a dangerous emotional discourse has emerged, reflecting – and feeding – the worst stereotypes of the “lazy South” and the “despotic North.”	事实上，危险的情绪已开始浮现，这反映了——也强化了——最糟糕的刻板印象，即“懒惰的南方”和“暴虐的北方”。


It is indicative that the latest Pew Research Survey in late May reveals unanimity about who the least hardworking Europeans are: southerners, especially Greeks.	5月底出版的最新一期皮尤研究调查（Pew Research Survey）颇能说明问题。 调查表明，举世公认的工作最不上心的欧洲人是南欧人，尤其是希腊人。


Likewise, polls and elections signal the ascent of populists across Europe, while financial markets’ vulture-like behavior stems from the cynical calculation that the EU lacks the wherewithal to restore its credibility.	类似地，民调和选举结果表明，民粹主义在整个欧洲都在抬头，而金融市场冷酷无情——因为根据怀疑派的计算，欧盟拿不出必要的资金重塑信誉。


That, after all, is the point of Europe’s straightjacket of austerity, which hampers its growth prospects, and thus makes little sense in economic terms.	说到底，这是欧洲财政紧缩妨碍了增长前景，因而不会起多少经济作用造成的。


The ultimate aim of austerity is precisely the restoration of trust – among northern Europeans that the money transferred to troubled economies will not be squandered, and among the peoples affected by painful spending cuts that their efforts are recognized and supported.	紧缩的终极目标不是别的，正是重塑信任——让掏腰包的北欧人相信转移支付给受困国家的钱不会打水漂； 让饱受开支削减痛苦折磨的人们相信他们的付出会得到承认和支持。


Speaking from the heartland of the troubled South, I can attest to the fact that the need for austerity has been the leitmotif of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government, a course that gained explicit popular support in the recent elections.	身处受困南欧的中心地带，我可以证明，紧缩的必要性确实是西班牙首相拉霍伊政府的主旋律，在最近的选举中赢得了明显的群众支持。


Reforming Spains’s cajas (savings banks), labor market, welfare provisions, and how its autonomous regions function top the national agenda (though unfortunately only at the insistence of the European Commission and Germany).	改革西班牙储蓄银行、劳动力市场、福利制度以及自治区运转模式占据着国家日程的最优先级别（虽然不幸的是，这是应欧洲委员会和德国要求而不得不为之）。


But restoring trust and credibility requires more than southern discipline.	但要重塑信任和信誉，光加强南欧纪律是远远不够的。


Northern Europe must hold up its side of the bargain.	北欧也必须做出让步。


Germany, in particular, must acknowledge that, far from being an innocent victim, its economy is the eurozone’s biggest beneficiary – and has been since the euro’s inception.	特别是德国必须承认其经济绝不是无辜受害者，而是欧元区最大的受益者——从欧元诞生的那一天起就是如此。


That, together with the counterfactual – the economic calamity that would befall Germany following a collapse of the euro – implies a unique obligation to maintain it.	这与其相反的以免——欧元崩溃将给德国带来经济灾难——意味着德国身负拯救欧元的不二义务。


German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been a favorite target of opponents of austerity for some time now, and it is understandable that, after months of being a bystander to the EU’s painful inability to govern, Germany has reluctantly – indeed, insufficiently – taken charge.	近段时间以来，德国总理默克尔一直是紧缩反对者最大的攻击目标，不难理解，几个月以来德国一直对欧盟治理无力之痛袖手旁观，而不愿——事实上是无能为力——接过指挥棒。


Looking ahead, as the threat of disintegration looms larger, the need for German leadership will be even greater.	放眼未来，随着崩溃的风险越来越大，德国挺身而出的需要会变得更加紧迫。


But, once the crisis has passed, EU institutional reform will be a critical element in restoring trust.	但是，一旦危机过去，欧盟制度性改革将是重塑信任的关键因素。


The EU’s supposed democratic deficit is a corollary of the “technocratic imperative” that has emerged as a favorite scapegoat in the ongoing European drama.	人们之所以认为欧盟存在民主赤字，是因为将“技术官僚瞎指挥”（technocratic imperative）推作没完没了的欧洲闹剧的替罪羊。


According to this view, European integration was flawed from the outset, more than six decades ago, because it was conceived and developed as an elite project.	根据这一观点，欧洲一体化从一开始（60多年前）就是有缺陷的，因为它最先是作为一项精英工程为人所知和发展的。


But, for as long as the European project delivered prosperity, no one bothered to question its rationale.	但是，只要欧洲工程能带来繁荣，就不会有人回去质疑其合理性。


Today, however, the EU is the last point of reference as far as prosperity is concerned.	但是，如今，随着繁荣前景日渐黯淡，欧盟也成了最后的参照点。


According to the Pew survey, EU favorability is down almost everywhere since 2007, having dropped 20 points in the Czech Republic and Spain, 19 points in Italy, and 14 points in Poland.	根据皮尤调查，自2007年以来各国欧盟支持率都在下降，捷克和西班牙下降了20个点，意大利下降了19个点，波兰下降了14个点。


If EU institutions are to regain trust and relevance, they need to articulate concrete policies and deliver on issues that bear directly on citizens’ interests – youth unemployment, urban planning, health care, bio-tech research, energy conservation, transport, and aging.	如果欧盟制度要重新赢得信任和关联，就必须出台具体政策，对与欧洲公民利益直接相关的问题——青年人失业、城市规划、卫生、生物技术研究、节能、运输和老龄化等——给出答案。


All of these issues were an integral part of the EU’s ambitious Lisbon Strategy (which in 2000 promised to make Europe the world’s most competitive economy by 2010), and all were quickly hijacked by national political agendas.	所有这些问题都是雄心勃勃的欧盟里斯本战略（Lisbon Strategy，于2000年提出到2010年将欧洲建设成全世界最具竞争力的经济体）的组成部分，但很快被各国政治日程绑架了。


That cannot be allowed to happen again.	这样的情况决不能出现第二次。


In fact, there is nothing inevitable about the euro's failure.	事实上，欧元的失败并不是不可避免的。


The dismal image that Europe projects to the world nowadays does no justice to reality.	欧洲工程的凄凉现状与现实并不相符。


Europe has the world’s healthiest and most educated population, its largest economy, and huge stores of soft power, owing also to its commitment to human rights and democratic values.	欧洲拥有全世界最健康、教育程度最高的人口、规模最大的经济，拥有极强大的软实力储备，也承担者人权和民主价值的承诺。


And yet Europe is facing a calamity.	但欧洲正在面临灾难。


Discipline and morality may well be key to reinforcing trust and credibility to Europe’s social fabric – a point that northern Europeans never tire of making.	纪律和道德将是加强欧洲社会结构信任和信誉的关键——北欧一直不遗余力地强调着这一点。


But, unless all Europeans accept responsibility for saving the euro – and, with it, the EU – everything else is shallow rhetoric.	但是，除非所有欧洲人都意识到拯救欧元的责任（以及与之捆绑在一起的拯救欧元的责任），说再多都没有用。


The Inexorable Logic of the Sharing Economy	共享经济的必然逻辑


MILAN – When Amazon was founded in 1994, and eBay the following year, they harnessed the connectivity of the Internet to create new, more efficient markets.	发自米兰——当亚马逊和eBay分别于1994、1995年成立时，它们借助互联网的联通性创造出了一个崭新的、更有效率的市场。


In the beginning, that meant new ways of buying and selling books and collectibles; but now e-commerce is everywhere, offering customers new goods and used goods – and becoming a global force in logistics and retail.	一开始时这不过意味着一种买卖书籍、收藏品的新方法； 到如今电子商务已经无处不在，向客户出售各类全新和二手商品，同时成为物流和零售领域的一股全球性力量。


Likewise, while today’s sharing-economy companies may be just out of their infancy, their services will one day be ubiquitous.	同样，虽然当今的共享经济公司可能只是起步阶段，但它们的服务总有一天会渗透到每一角落。


By now, most people have heard of Airbnb, the online apartment-rental service.	现在，大多数人都听过的Airbnb——在线公寓租赁服务。


The company has just 600 employees but a million properties listed for rent, making it larger than the world’s biggest hotel chains.	该公司只有不过600名员工，却拥有数百万个房间可供出租，比世界上最大的连锁酒店还要庞大。


Of course, what Airbnb offers is different from what hotels provide; but if Airbnb offered options for, say, maid service or food, they could become closer competitors than one might initially imagine.	当然Airbnb提供的产品与酒店是不同的； 但如果它能提供例如家居清洁服务和餐饮服务等更多选项，就可能成为比预想中更性质更相近的酒店竞争对手。


The insight (obvious in retrospect) underlying Airbnb’s model – and the burgeoning sharing economy in general – is that the world is replete with under-utilized assets and resources.	在对Airbnb模式——新兴共享经济体——的深层次思考（按其日新月异的发展速度显然只能是回顾）看来，世界上充斥着尚未充分利用的资产和资源。


How much time do we spend actually using the things – whether cars, bicycles, apartments, vacation homes, tools, or yachts – that we own?	试想在那些自己名下的东西上——无论是汽车、自行车、公寓、度假别墅、工具或游艇——我们实际花费了多少时间？


What value do office buildings or classrooms generate at night?	把写字楼或教室利用起来的话，一个晚上又能创造多少价值？


Answers vary by asset, individual, household, or organization, but the utilization numbers tend to be astonishingly low.	答案因资产、个人，家庭或组织而各不相同，但利用率往往是低得惊人。


One recent answer for cars was 8%, and even that may seem high to someone not burdened by long commutes.	最近一个关于汽车利用率的答案是8％，而这对那些无需长途通勤的人来说已经很高了。


But those numbers are changing, as the Internet enables creative new business models that increase not only a market’s efficiency but also the utilization of our various assets.	但是这些数字在发生变化，因为互联网使得创新商业模式不仅增加了市场效率，还能提升我们各类资产的利用率，对此人们也在进行数以百计的实验。


Hundreds of experiments are being conducted. Clearly, not all of them will experience the astonishing growth of Airbnb and Uber.	显然不是所有的项目都会涌现Airbnb和Uber的惊人增长，但其中某些像Rent the Runway这样的设计师品牌服饰及饰品租赁项目可能会有利可图；


Some, like Rent the Runway for designer clothes and accessories, may find profitable niches; others will simply fail.	而其他则根本不可行。


The digital platforms that act as the basis of all this e-commerce need to meet two related challenges.	作为所有电子商务的基础，数字化平台需要满足两个相关的挑战。


The first is to produce a network effect, so that buyers and sellers find one another often enough and rapidly enough to make a business sustainable.	首先是产生网络效应，让买家和卖家足够频繁、迅速地找到对方，使一个商业模式得以可持续发展。


Second, the platform must create trust – in the product or the service – on both sides of the transaction.	其次，该平台必须在产品或服务中为交易双方建立互信。


Trust is crucial to the network effect; hence the need for two-way evaluation systems that encourage buyers and sellers to be repeat users of the relevant platform.	信任对网络效应来说是至关重要的。 因此需要有双向评价体系，鼓励买家和卖家成为相关平台的重复用户。


Small players can then act in large markets, because – over time – they become known quantities.	随着时间推移小参与者的数量逐渐得可观，并逐渐聚集成大型市场。


The power of these platforms derives from overcoming informational asymmetries, by dramatically increasing the signal density of the market.	而通过大幅提高市场信号密度进而克服信息不对称状况，这些市场开始拥有自身的力量。


Indeed, in order to encourage infrequent e-commerce users, innovators and investors are exploring ways to combine the evaluation databases of separate, even rival, platforms.	事实上，为了鼓励那些低频电子商务用户，创新者和投资者正在探索方法对独立甚至竞争对手的数据平台进行整合。


Whatever the legal and technical issues that must be overcome, down the road we can surely imagine the kind of data consolidation already practiced internally by retail giants like Amazon or Alibaba.	无论必须克服什么样的法律还是技术问题，我们不难想像如亚马逊或者阿里巴巴这样的网络零售巨头已经着手在内部推动这样的数据整合了。


There can, of course, be other incentives to support “good” behavior, such as fines and deposits (for bicycles borrowed for too long or not returned, for example).	当然也有其他激励措施可以支持“好”的行为，如罚款和存款（例如自行车借用太久或者不归还的）。


But punitive measures can easily lead to disputes and inefficiency. By contrast, refining evaluation systems holds far more promise.	但惩罚性措施很容易导致纠纷和低效，相比之下细化评级体系则更可靠。


The urge to exploit under-utilized resources should not be confined to material assets.	此外对未充分利用资源的开发也不应局限于物质财富。


The McKinsey Global Institute has recently studied internet-based approaches to the labor market and the challenge of matching demand for talent and skills with supply.	麦肯锡全球研究所最近就研究了如何基于互联网来配置劳动力市场，以及如何将需求与人才和技能相匹配。


Some sharing models – perhaps most – rely on both labor and other assets: for example, a person and his or her car, computer, sewing machine, or kitchen (for home-delivered meals).	一些共享模式——或许是大多数——同时依赖劳动力和其他资产：例如一个人以及他或她的汽车、电脑、缝纫机或厨房（送餐上门）。


This throwback to the cottage industries that preceded modern production is possible today because the Internet is lowering the costs of dispersion that once compelled the concentration of work in factories and offices.	而这些存在于现代化大生产之前的淘汰行业之所以能存在，就是因为互联网降低了分散作业的成本——须知这些工作过去只能被迫集中于工厂和办公室中完成。


Perhaps inevitably, regulatory issues arise, as Uber is now discovering from California to Europe.	也许监管问题也会不可避免地涌现，正如Uber如今在美国加州和欧洲所面对的那样。