Whereas, say, Presidents John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan clearly confronted the Soviet Union in their speeches at the Berlin Wall, a succession of Western leaders has spoken in nods and winks about the crisis in Ukraine and China’s aggressive stance toward its neighbors.	尽管（比如）肯尼迪和里根等美国总统在柏林墙前的演讲中明确反苏联，但他们的后辈西方领导人对乌克兰危机和中国对其邻国的逼人立场只能说些无关痛痒的话。


The difference is not difficult to discern.	其中的区别不难认识。


During the Cold War, the West’s certainty that it occupied the moral high ground inspired confidence in both word and deed.	冷战期间，西方明确占领了道德制高点，这令西方的言与行都有了自信。


Though the West still occupies the moral high ground on many important issues – such as the Islamic State and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the global system is far less clear-cut today.	尽管西方仍在许多问题上占据着道德制高点——比如伊斯兰国和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰——但如今全球体系已不再明确无误。


Internal social challenges, which have called into question the justness of Western countries’ liberal model, have exacerbated politicians’ reticence.	内部社会挑战给西方国家自由模式的公正性提出了疑问，也加剧了政客的缄默。


As diffident Western leaders offer garbled messages or, worse, mere verbal fluff, they allow cynical actors with simpler and more forceful narratives, often based on lies and distortions, to win support more easily.	不自信的西方领导人说话模棱两可，更糟糕的是，有时他们说的��毫无意义，因此，用词更简单、更有力——但常常基于谎言和扭曲——的犬儒主义者得以更容易地赢得支持。


In Europe, the rise of demagogic populists on both ends of the political spectrum exemplifies this phenomenon.	在欧洲，蛊惑人心的民粹主义在左翼和右翼同时崛起充分说明了这一现象。


Likewise, Russian President Vladimir Putin, unburdened by facts or guilt, has taken advantage of domestic and international audiences’ deep-seated resentments and insecurities to craft compelling narratives in support of his policy toward Ukraine.	类似地，俄罗斯总统普京不再有事实或罪恶的负担，利用国内和国际群众根深蒂固的怨气和不安全感，为其乌克兰政策营造强大的支持声浪。


Western leaders should see no need to dispense with the truth; the facts are on their side.	西方领导人绝不应该弃真相而不用； 事实站在他们这一边。


What is needed is the confidence to defend the liberal rules-based international order – and to back up arguments with action.	他们需要的是捍卫基于规则的自由的国际秩序的信心，以及用行动支持言论的信心。


After all, powerful declarations mean nothing if leaders do not follow through; worse, they undermine the credibility of the speaker’s future statements.	毕竟，如果领导人不拿出行动，在强大的宣言也毫无意义； 更糟糕的是，还会影响宣言人的未来信誉。


Obama learned this the hard way, when he drew a “red line” against Syria’s use of chemical weapons and then failed to act forcefully when Syria crossed that line.	奥巴马就有此沉痛教训。 他给叙利亚使用化学武器的行为画了一条“红线”，而当叙利亚越线时，他却没有果断行动。


The Obama doctrine cannot be credible if the US is not willing to use the capabilities that the president has pledged to preserve.	如果美国不愿使用其总统信誓旦旦要保留的实力，奥巴马主义也就不再可信了。


This imperative is not limited to Obama.	这一当务之急并不局限于奥巴马。


All Western policymakers will, before long, have to move beyond their parochial political considerations and anxieties to present a clear strategic vision.	用不了多久，所有西方决策者都必须超越他们偏狭的政治考虑和焦虑，拿出明确的战略愿景。


The habit of bland rhetoric is a hard one to break.	用词偏软的习惯很难打破。


Indeed, Orwell warned of its potential to weaken one’s capacity for critical thought, because “every such phrase anaesthetizes a portion of one’s brain.”	事实上，奥威尔警告说，这一习惯有可能削弱一个人的批判性思考能力，因为“每一个这样的词组都会麻痹一个人大脑的一部分。


But, as the global balance of power shifts toward the East and the South, the West must do what it takes to secure its continued influence – and that means taking a firm, clear, and credible stance on the strategic challenges it faces.	”但是，随着全球实力平衡的东移和南下，西方必须不惜一切代价确保其继续拥有影响力——而这意味着对其所面临的战略挑战采取坚实、明确、可信的立场。


If their bids for power succeed, the dangers posed to global stability will rise by an order of magnitude.	如果他们在权力��争中获胜，那么全球稳定所面临的危险将放大几个数量级。


No Hiding From Sustainable Development	可持续发展无从躲避


NEW YORK – One year ago, I was in Brazil to launch the Brazilian chapter of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), an initiative of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.	纽约—一年前，我在巴西启动联合国可持续发展方案网络（ustainable Development Solutions Network，SDSN）巴西章。 这是联合国秘书长潘基文发起的项目。


The main message I heard that day was that São Paulo was suffering from a mega-drought, but that state and local politicians were keeping it quiet.	那一天，我听到的主要内容是圣保罗正在遭遇一场巨大的旱灾，但国家和地方政客对此缄口不谈。


This is a reality around the world: too many political leaders are ignoring a growing environmental crisis, imperiling their own countries and others.	这是一个世界性现实：太多政治领袖忽视日益严重的环境危机，威胁着他们自己和其他国家。


In the case of Brazil, state and local officials had other things on their mind in 2014: hosting the World Cup soccer tournament in June and July and winning elections later in the year.	在巴西的例子中，国家和地方官员有着其他2014年的打算：举办6月—7月的世界杯、赢得下半年的大选。


So they relied on a time-tested political tactic: hide the bad news behind a “feel-good" message.	因此他们采取了经过时间考验的政治战术：报喜不报忧。


Some places have been even more foolish than simply ignoring the risks.	一些地方更加愚蠢，不仅仅只是忽视风险。


North Carolina's coastlands, like coastal areas around the world, are threatened by rising sea levels caused by human-induced climate change.	比如，北卡罗来纳州海岸和世界其他地区一样，受到人为导致的气候变化所引起的海平面升高的威胁。


Yet in 2012, land developers convinced the state legislature to bar the use of scientific evidence on rising sea levels in the state's coastal management policies, at least until 2016.	但在2012年，土地开发商说服州立法者至少在2016年前的州海岸管理政策制定中排除使用科学证据。


The issue is equally flagrant at the federal level: US Congress members, on the take from Big Oil, simply deny the reality of climate change.	这一问题在联邦层面也已经到了令人难以容忍的程度：美国国会议员受石油巨头的指使，断然否认气候变化的现实。


But growing environmental threats are forcing their way into the headlines whether politicians and land developers like it or not.	但日益严重的环境威胁正在无情地占领新闻头条，可不管政客和土地开发商喜不喜欢。


The bad news about mega-droughts and freshwater scarcity stretches from Brazil to California to conflict-ridden countries in the Middle East.	从巴西到加州再到饱受冲突蹂躏的中东国家，关于巨大旱灾和淡水短缺的坏消息不绝于耳。


São Paulo's metropolitan region of 20 million people is now on the verge of water rationing, an unprecedented threat for one of the world's leading cities.	2,000万人的圣保罗市区如今正处于水配给的边缘，这是世界主要城市从来没有发生过的现象。


In California, this winter has been another dry season in a bitter four-year drought, one of the most severe in the region's history.	在加州，今年冬天又是一个干燥的季节——干旱已经维持了四年，是地区历史上最严重的一次。


In Pakistan, the minister of water and energy recently declared that, “Under the present situation, in the next six to seven years Pakistan can be a water-starved country."	在巴基斯坦，水和能源部长最近宣称“在目前的情况下，不出六七年，巴基斯坦就可能沦为贫水国。


In Iran, the Hamoun wetlands bordering Afghanistan are disappearing, posing a grave threat to the local population.	”在伊朗，紧邻阿富汗的哈默恩（Hamoun）湿地正在消失，给当地人口造成重大威胁。


Looking back, it is also clear that a decade-long drought in neighboring Syria helped to trigger the unrest that escalated into a catastrophic civil war, with at least 200,000 Syrians dead and no end to the violence in sight.	回顾历史，相邻的叙利亚也经历了长达十年的干旱期，而这也是引发动乱进而升级为灾难性内战的一个原因，至少200,000叙利亚人在这场仍看不见尽头的内战中丧生。


The drought had displaced an estimated 1.5 million people and caused food prices to soar, leading to a spiral of protest, crackdown, and eventually war.	干旱导致大约150万人流离失所，令粮食价格飙涨，从而引起示威、镇压最终爆发战争的循环。


Though drought does not explain all of the ensuing violence, it certainly played a role.	尽管干旱不是持久暴力的唯一原因，但肯定是因素之一。


Each of these droughts reflects a complex mix of factors: long-term climate change, short-term or decade-long weather patterns, growing populations' rising demand for freshwater, mismanagement of local resources, and, of course, a lack of political attention and will.	所有这些旱灾反映了复杂的因素组合：长期气候变化、短期或十年左右的天气模式、增长的人口对淡水需求的增加、本地资源管理不善，当然还有政治关注和意愿的缺位。


Every drought must therefore be confronted locally, addressing local realities.	因此，每一场旱灾都必须在本地面对，解决本地现实。


Yet the global message is also clear: the world's growing population (now at 7.3 billion, but likely to reach eight billion by 2024 and nine billion by around 2040), human-induced climate change, and the overuse of freshwater for irrigation and urban needs (especially when cities are built up in dry regions) are all fueling the potential for catastrophe.	但全球形势也是显而易见的：不断增长的世界人口（目前为73亿，但2024年可能达到八十亿，2040年达到九十亿）、人为导致的气候变化以及出于城市需要将过多淡水用于灌溉（特别是建立在干旱地区的城市）都在增加爆发灾难的可能性。


Recent research indicates that these trends are likely to intensify.	最新研究表明这些趋势可能加剧。


Almost all studies of human-induced climate change show that the Mediterranean region, including security hotspots like Libya, Egypt, Israel, Palestine, and Syria, is likely to experience a further significant decline in rainfall, compounding the drying trend that has occurred during the past quarter-century.	几乎所有关于人为导致的气候变化的研究都表明，地中海地区——包括安全问题热点利比亚、埃及、以色列、巴勒斯坦和叙利亚等——降雨可能进一步减少，加剧过去四分之一世纪所发生的干旱趋势。


Likewise, a recent study by my colleagues at Columbia University's Earth Institute has shown that human-induced climate change is likely to cause increasingly frequent mega-droughts in the American southwest and Great Plains states in the second half of this century.	类似地，我的哥伦比亚大学地球研究所同事的最新研究表明，本世纪下半叶，人为导致的气候变化可能在美国西南部和大平原各州引起日益频繁的巨大旱灾。


In September of this year, world leaders will gather at the United Nations to adopt a set of Sustainable Development Goals to address these rising threats.	今年9月，世界领导人将齐聚联合国，制定一套可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals，SDG）解决这些威胁。


The SDGs will not ensure global action, but, as US President John F. Kennedy once said about UN agreements, they can serve as a lever to help move the world toward action.	SDG无法确保全球行动，但如美国总统约翰·肯尼迪曾经评论联合国协议的那样，它们可以起到杠杆作用，促使世界采取行动。


That is why it is so important to start planning for the SDGs now.	正因如此，从现在开始为SDG做好规划至关重要。


Ban launched the SDSN to help countries achieve the new goals.	潘基文发起了SDSN以助各国实现这些新目标。


Its key members include universities and think tanks around the world, with leading businesses and NGOs serving as important partners.	其关键成员包括全球大学和智库，并以主要企业和非政府组织为重要合作伙伴。


National and regional SDSN chapters are being formed worldwide, in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, Africa, and Oceania.	国家和地区SDSN章节将在全世界建立，包括南北美洲、欧洲、中东、南亚、东亚和大洋洲。


The goal is to ensure strong participation in the SDSN in every country by the time the SDGs are adopted in September.	其目标是确保在9月份采取SDG时，SDSN在所有国家都有广泛参与。


This spring and summer, in countries around the world, SDSN-affiliated institutions will invite governments to begin brainstorming about how to achieve sustainable development in their cities, countries, and regions.	今年春天和夏天，在全球各地，SDSN协助建立的机构将邀请政府开启头脑风暴，找到如何实现城市、国家和地区可持续发展的办法。


Many politicians, no doubt, will be grateful for the support of their universities, NGOs, and leading businesses.	毫无疑问，许多政客会感谢来自他们的大学、非政府组织和主要企业的支持。


And those who want to hide from reality will find that they no longer can.	而妄图遮盖现实的人将发现这样做已不再可能。


That is because our new reality is one of droughts, heat waves, extreme storms, rising sea levels, and unstable climate patterns.	这是因为我们的新现实是一个干旱、热浪、极端风暴、海平面升高和不稳定气候模式的现实。


Unless we act with foresight and base our actions on scientific evidence, water stress, food insecurity, and social crises will not be far behind.	除非我们以科学证据为基础，带着远见卓识展开行动，否则水压力、粮食不安全和社会危机将离我们不远。


In other words, today's mounting threats cannot be covered up.	换句话说，今天的日益严重的威胁时无法掩盖的。


The Age of Sustainable Development must be built on openness, participation, and science.	可持续发展时代必须建立在开放、参与和科学的基础上。


Politicizing EU Competition Policy	欧盟竞争策略政治化


The new European Commission has been named. What should be its primary goals?	新的欧盟执委会已经任命，它的主要目标是什么呢？


The Commission was originally created as a technocratic body relatively independent of either national or supranational control - correctly so, given its mandate.	设立执委会的原意是组建一个不受国家或国际控制的纯技术性机构，就执委会的管辖内容来讲，这一点非常重要。


The Commission works best when it sticks to this role.	遵循这项原则时，执委会就能发挥最出色的作用。


Think of the excellent work it has done in the area of competition policy: breaking up cartels and stopping state aid, even when it comes in disguised forms, such as government guarantees on company debt.	想想它在竞争策略领域取得的可喜成绩：打破了企业联合、制止了国家补助，即便它们披着企业债务政府担保的欺骗性外衣也无处容身。


The lesson is that Commissioners should focus on their specific tasks, bearing in mind the interests of the EU rather than those of their country of origin.	如果说教训，就是委员们要关注自身的特别任务，维护整个欧盟而不是各自原属国的利益。


Mario Monti, the successful Commissioner for Competition, happened to be Italian, but nobody ever accused him of pursuing an "Italian agenda."	成功的反垄断专员马里奥·蒙蒂碰巧是意大利人，但从没有人敢指责他推行"意大利日程"。


In fact, his fight against state aid clashed with normal Italian practice.	实际上，他反对国家补助的立场与意大利的惯常做法产生了激烈的冲突。


An innovation by current President Romano Prodi's Commission helped.	欧盟执委会主席普罗迪任内的一项创新发挥了作用。


Prodi's Commission decided to send Commissioners "into the field": their offices were no longer next to the President's office, but located in the department for which each was responsible.	普罗迪执委会决定把委员们派往"现场"：他们不再紧挨着主席办公，而是迁往各自所辖的部门。


This forced Commissioners to concentrate on their jobs and keep an eye on the all-powerful director-generals and their bureaucracies; there was little time left for "big picture" politics.	这迫使执委们在关注自己工作的同时，密切注意那些无所不能的总裁及其辖下的官僚机构，这样一来，执委们就没时间再搞什么"全局政治"了。


But the new commission that Durao Barroso, Portugal's former Prime Minister, has appointed risks becoming imprisoned by the bureaucracy again.	可葡萄牙前总理杜朗·巴罗佐的新一届执委会再次释放了官僚机构中禁锢的危险因素。


For one thing, Barroso has decided to bring his Commissioners back into the President's office.	首先，巴罗佐决定把委员们调回主席办公室，这意味着放松对官僚机构的控制，放弃对它们的直接监督。


This means less control and direct oversight of the bureaucracy, and an increased incentive to spend the day thinking up big plans rather than concentrating on targeted improvements.	不仅如此，这会鼓励委员们把时间花在构思全局计划，而放弃专注于有目的的改革。


The problem is aggravated by the composition of the new Commission.	新任执委会的构成使问题更为突出。


There will be 25 Commissioners, one for each EU member country, whereas previously big countries had two and small countries one.	委员总数定为25名，分别来自25个欧盟成员国，而以前是大国两名，小国一名。


Moreover, the new Commissioners will include three former prime ministers, five former foreign ministers, and three former finance ministers - all heavyweight people with big political agendas at home.	新任执委中有3位前任总理、5位前任外长和3位前任财长¾他们都是手握各自国内统筹大权的重量级人物。


Consider Italy, where Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi replaced Mario Monti, the Commission's most successful and effective member, with a politician enmeshed in the arcane games of Italian party politics.	以意大利为例，总理贝卢斯科尼派人接替了马里奥·蒙蒂，这位执委会曾经最成功、最高效的成员。 接替他的是位意大利党派政治神秘游戏中的政客。


Berlusconi's interest is clear: he wants someone he can call and ask to look after Italy's interests - be it a forbidden government loan to Alitalia or some other favor.	贝卢斯科尼的用意非常明显：他想要这个人听命于他，照顾意大利的国家利益－不管是政府对意大利航空公司的隐性贷款，还是其它的什么优惠。


There is also a Machiavellian explanation for the replacement of Monti.	还有对蒙蒂下台事件中权力内幕的揭示。


It is no secret that he irritated France and Germany.	他惹恼了法德两国政府，这早已不是什么秘密。


His latest decision was to force France Telecom to pay back with interest a loan granted years ago by the French government, in violation of EU rules on state aid.	不久以前，他决定让法国电信连本带利地归还前几年法国政府的一笔贷款，因为这笔贷款违反了欧盟国家援助的有关规定。


Germany never really accepted Monti's decision to bar government guarantees on the balance sheets of its Landesbanken, the powerful regional banks.	蒙蒂还禁止德国政府为地方银行的负债状况提供担保，这从来就没得到过德国政府的认可。


The German government is also worried by the Commission's resolution to question the "Volkswagen law."	此外，执委会质疑《大众汽车法》的一项决议也让德国政府耿耿于怀。


That law prevents any shareholder who controls more than 20% of voting shares in Volkswagenwerk GmbH (VW) from casting more than 20% of the votes in a shareholders' meeting.	这项法律不允许任何控制大众汽车20%以上有投票权股份的股东在股东大会上占据超过20%的投票比率。


It also decrees that a majority of more than 80% of shareholder votes is required for important decisions in the company.	这项法律还规定：公司任何的重大决策都须由80%以上的股东投票批准。


The Volkswagen law also deters private investors from acquiring shares in the company, despite the principle of free capital mobility within the EU.	《大众汽车法》也限制了私有投资者收购企业的股票，尽管欧盟规定了联盟范围内资金自由流动的原则。


We do not know whether Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and/or President Jacques Chirac called Berlusconi to suggest that he find a new Italian Commissioner.	我们还不太清楚施罗德总理和/或希拉克总统是否要求过贝卢斯科尼撤换这位意大利委员。


Maybe they did, and maybe they didn't: one cannot know, especially at a time when Italy may need the full support of Chirac and Shröder as it tries to bail out Alitalia.	他们也许做了，也许没做：人们不可能知道，特别是现在意大利急需希拉克和施罗德的支持，才有可能保住意大利航空。


The bottom line is that with the new Commission members focused on their domestic political agendas, Durao Barroso's team will do less effectively what the Commission used to do well.	如��新任执委们以各自国内的政治日程为重，最坏情况是杜朗·巴罗佐会领导执委会在功效卓著的领域有所退步。


At the same time, to the extent that the Commission becomes less a body of technocrats and more a political body, the so-called "democratic deficit" will increasingly become a problem.	与此同时，随着执委会的技术内涵日益减少、政治内涵日益扩大，所谓的"民主赤字"问题也会变得越来越突出。


The root cause of the problem is the new European constitution.	所有问题都来自新颁布的《欧洲宪法》。


By failing to limit the size of the Commission and accepting the one-country/one-commissioner rule, the Constitution has turned the Commission into a body of national representatives.	由于没能限制执委会的规模，实行了每国委员制，新《宪法》把执委会变成了国家代表机构。


This, together with the rule that all decisions, even in the area of state aid, must be approved by a majority of Commissioners, suggests that the Commission is set to become much more lenient on state aid and competition policy.	再加上所有决策，包括国家援助领域在内，都必须获得多数委员批准的新规定，使得执委会将在国家援助和竞争策略上变得更加怀柔。


The Politics of Economic Stupidity	经济愚蠢的政治


NEW YORK – In 2014, the world economy remained stuck in the same rut that it has been in since emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis.	纽约—2014年， 世界经济依然在2008年全球金融危机后形成的陷阱中挣扎。


Despite seemingly strong government action in Europe and the United States, both economies suffered deep and prolonged downturns.	尽管欧洲和美国采取了看似强大的政府行动，但这两大经济体都遭到了深度而长期的低迷。


The gap between where they are and where they most likely would have been had the crisis not erupted is huge.	现状和若不发生危机最有可能的状态之间的差距是巨大的。


In Europe, it increased over the course of the year.	在欧洲，这一差距在今年又有所扩大。


Developing countries fared better, but even there the news was grim.	发展中国家境况略好，但即使是它们也没有带来什么好消息。


The most successful of these economies, having based their growth on exports, continued to expand in the wake of the financial crisis, even as their export markets struggled.	这些经济体中最成功者以出口为增长基础，在金融危机爆发后依然保持扩张，尽管出口市场遭遇重创。


But their performance, too, began to diminish significantly in 2014.	但它们的表现在2014年也出现了剧烈恶化。


In 1992, Bill Clinton based his successful campaign for the US presidency on a simple slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid.”	1992年，克林顿凭借一句简单的口号成功问鼎美国总统：“是经济，蠢货。


From today’s perspective, things then do not seem so bad; the typical American household’s income is now lower.	”从今天的角度看，那时的情况并没有那么糟糕； 典型美国家庭的收入在今天还要比那时低一点儿。


But we can take inspiration from Clinton’s effort.	但我们可以从克林顿的努力中获得点启发。


The malaise afflicting today’s global economy might be best reflected in two simple slogans: “It’s the politics, stupid” and “Demand, demand, demand.”	影响今天全球经济的症候可以用两句简单的口号表达：“是政治，蠢货”和“需求，需求，需求。 ”


The near-global stagnation witnessed in 2014 is man-made.	2014年几乎席卷全球的停滞完全是人为的。


It is the result of politics and policies in several major economies – politics and policies that choked off demand.	这是几个主要经济体政治和政策——抑制需求的政治和政策——的结果。


In the absence of demand, investment and jobs will fail to materialize.	没有需求，投资和就业就无法实现。


It is that simple.	就这么简单。


Nowhere is this clearer than in the eurozone, which has officially adopted a policy of austerity – cuts in government spending that augment weaknesses in private spending.	欧洲是最显著的例子。 欧洲正式采取了紧缩政策——减少政府支出导致私人支出愈加疲软。


The eurozone’s structure is partly to blame for impeding adjustment to the shock generated by the crisis; in the absence of a banking union, it was no surprise that money fled the hardest-hit countries, weakening their financial systems and constraining lending and investment.	欧元区的结构制约了其面对危机冲击时的调整； 没有银行联盟，资金逃出冲击最严重国家、削弱它们的金融系统、制约它们的贷款和投资能力也就不足为奇了。


In Japan, one of the three “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s program for economic revival was launched in the wrong direction.	在日本，首相安倍晋三振兴经济大计的三支“箭”中有一支发错了方向。


The fall in GDP that followed the increase in the consumption tax in April provided further evidence in support of Keynesian economics – as if there was not enough already.	4月份消费税增加之后的GDP下降进一步证明了凯恩斯主义经济学——好像此前付出的代价还不够沉重似的。


The US introduced the smallest dose of austerity, and it has enjoyed the best economic performance.	美国的紧缩力度最小，经济表现也最好。


But even in the US, there are roughly 650,000 fewer public-sector employees than there were before the crisis; normally, we would have expected some two million more.	但即使在美国，公共部门雇员数量也比危机前减少了约650,000名； 在正常情况下，这一数字应该增加两百万左右。


As a result, the US, too, is suffering, with growth so anemic that wages remain basically stagnant.	结果，美国也在遭遇困境，增长如此萎靡，以至于工资基本保持停滞状态。


Much of the growth deceleration in emerging and developing countries reflects China’s slowdown.	新兴和发展中国家的增长减速主要体现了中国的减速。


China is now the world’s largest economy (in terms of purchasing power parity), and it has long been the main contributor to global growth.	如今，中国已是世界第一大经济体（按购买力平价衡量），也一直是全球增长的主要贡献力量。


But China’s remarkable success has bred its own problems, which should be addressed sooner rather than later.	但中国令人瞩目的成功也产生了自己的问题，这些问题迟早总要解决。


The Chinese economy’s shift from quantity to quality is welcome – almost necessary.	中国经济从数量向质量的转型是值得欢迎的——也几乎是必不可少的。


And, though President Xi Jinping’s fight against corruption may cause economic growth to slow further, as paralysis grips public contracting, there is no reason for Xi to let up.	此外，尽管国家主席习近平的反腐运动可能导致经济增长进一步减速，因为许多公共合同将陷入瘫痪，但习近平没有理由会有所松懈。


On the contrary, other forces undermining trust in his government – widespread environmental problems, high and rising levels of inequality, and private-sector fraud – need to be addressed with equal vigor.	相反，其他破坏对其政府信任的因素——普遍的环境问题、严重且不断恶化的不平等性以及私人部门欺诈——也需要以同样的力度解决。


In short, the world should not expect China to shore up global aggregate demand in 2015.	简言之，世界不必期待2015年中国还能顶起全球总需求。


If anything, there will be an even bigger hole to fill.	中国不拖后腿已属不易。


Meanwhile, in Russia, we can expect Western sanctions to slow growth, with adverse effects on an already weakened Europe.	与此同时，对于俄罗斯，我们可以预期西方制裁将令其增长放缓，而已然十分疲软的欧洲也将受到消极影响。


(This is not an argument against sanctions: The world had to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Western CEOs who argue otherwise, seeking to protect their investments, have demonstrated a disturbing lack of principle.)	（这并非是要反对制裁：世界必须对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰有所反应，而反对这样做、意图保护他们的投资的西方CEO表现出令人失望的没有原则。 ）


For the past six years, the West has believed that monetary policy can save the day.	过去六年来，西方认为货币政策可以充当救世主。


The crisis led to huge budget deficits and rising debt, and the need for deleveraging, the thinking goes, means that fiscal policy must be shunted aside.	危机导致了巨大的预算赤字和增加的债务，这一思维认为，去杠杆化的需要意味着财政政策必须靠边站。


The problem is that low interest rates will not motivate firms to invest if there is no demand for their products.	问题在于低利率无法刺激企业投资，如果它们的产品根本没有需求的话。


Nor will low rates inspire individuals to borrow to consume if they are anxious about their future (which they should be).	低利率也不会刺激个人贷款消费，如果他们焦虑自己的未来（很应该如此）的话。


What monetary policy can do is create asset-price bubbles.	货币政策可以做什么？ 形成资产价格泡沫。


It might even prop up the price of government bonds in Europe, thereby forestalling a sovereign-debt crisis.	它甚至推高了欧洲政府债券的价格，从而阻止了一场主权债务危机。


But it is important to be clear: the likelihood that loose monetary policies will restore global prosperity is nil.	但必须搞清楚，宽松货币政策重塑全球繁荣的希望是渺茫的。


This brings us back to politics and policies.	这就把我们引回了政治和政策。


Demand is what the world needs most.	需求是世界最需要的东西。


The private sector – even with the generous support of monetary authorities – will not supply it.	私人部门——即使有货币当局的慷慨支持——无法提供这个东西。


But fiscal policy can.	但财政政策可以。


We have an ample choice of public investments that would yield high returns – far higher than the real cost of capital – and that would strengthen the balance sheets of the countries undertaking them.	我们有的是可以带来高回报的公共投资选项——远远高于真实资本成本——并且还能强化实施投资的国家的资产负债表。


The big problem facing the world in 2015 is not economic.	2015年世界所面临的问题不是经济问题。


We know how to escape our current malaise.	我们知道如何摆脱当前的颓势。


The problem is our stupid politics.	问题在于我们愚蠢的政治。


The Politics of Financial Volatility	金融波动的政治学


LONDON – Twenty-four years ago, in the midst of an ugly US presidential campaign, Bill Clinton’s campaign manager neatly summed up his candidate’s message: “It’s the economy, stupid.”	伦敦—二十四年前，在一场艰苦的美国总统选举中，比尔·克林顿阵营管理者言简意赅地总结出他的竞选口号：“这是经济，笨蛋。


Today, as investors struggle to understand what is driving extreme volatility in the financial markets, there is an equally pithy explanation: It’s the stupid politics.	”今天，在投资者绞尽脑汁理解是什么导致了金融市场的极端波动时，也有一个同样简洁的解释：这是愚蠢的政治。


Central bank policies have moved from supporting the markets to potentially destabilizing them.	央行政策已经从支持市场变为可能破坏市场。


Now markets are turning to structural reform and fiscal policy for assistance.	目前，市场正在转靠结构改革和财政政策支持。


In this light, current price movements should be viewed through the spectrum of geopolitics.	从这个角度看，当前价格趋势应该通过地缘政治角度看待。


And it is not a nice view.	而这一角度并不令人乐观。


Nowhere is this more evident than in the oil markets, where prices have collapsed, with both Brent and Crude now hovering around the $30-per-barrel level.	最明显的要数石油市场了，石油价格出现了崩盘，布伦特和纽约原油都徘徊在每桶30美元上下。


The extent of oil’s fall, and consequent deflationary fears, is cited as a major factor behind overall market turmoil.	石油价格下跌幅度，以及由此带来的通缩恐慌，被认为是总体市场动荡背后的主要因素之一。


In January, the correlation between crude oil prices and the S&P 500 reached the highest level since 1990.	1月，原油价格和标普500指数的相关性达到了1990年以来的最高峰。


It has become increasingly clear that supply dynamics, rather than falling demand, explain the drop from $110/barrel since the summer of 2014.	日益明确的是，供给动态，而不是需求下降，是油价从2014年夏天的每桶110美元一路下跌至今的原因。


The shift to competitive pricing implied by the breakdown of Saudi Arabia’s monopoly power, together with OPEC’s desire to counter the threat from US shale energy, drove the first downward move.	沙特阿拉伯垄断力的崩溃导致石油成为竞争性定价，再加上欧佩克意图对抗美国页岩能的威胁，这导致了第一波下跌。


Likewise, the recent lifting of sanctions on Iran, and the resulting increase in global oil supply, prompted a further 9% price drop over a matter of days.	类似地，最近伊朗制裁的取消，以及由此导致的全球石油供给的增加，让油价在几天内进一步下跌9%。


These supply dynamics are shaped by politics.	这些供给动态是由政治决定的。


Daily headlines about potential coordinated measures by the key oil-producing countries fuel oil-price volatility and define risk appetite across financial markets.	关于主要石油生产国的可能的合作措施的日常报道助长了油价波动，也决定着金融市场的风险偏好。


Yet the politics is so confused that coordination appears unlikely, at best; the Iranian oil minister recently described a potential OPEC production freeze as a “joke.”	但政治太难以捉摸，合作可谓希望渺茫； 伊朗石油部长最近称欧佩克冻结产量是一个“笑话”。


Iran’s parliamentary elections augment the uncertainty.	伊朗议会选举更是增加了不确定性。


Aside from oil, the other popular explanation for today’s market tumult is the economic slowdown in China, which many investors have cited as the reason for slumping equity prices this year.	除了石油，关于眼下市场动荡的另一个流行解释是中国经济放缓，许多人认为这是今年股价暴跌的原因。


But the slowdown, reflecting China’s transition from investment-led to consumption-driven growth, was widely expected, and the 2015 growth figure of 6.8% was within forecasts.	但中国经济放缓反映了中国从投资拉动增长转向消费驱动增长，已经被广泛预期到了，并且2015年6. 8%的增长数字也符合预期。


The real problem has been self-inflicted policy errors by China’s political leaders.	真正的问题是中国政治领导人自作自受的政策失误。


An ill-advised intervention in the equity markets in July 2015, followed by a poorly communicated exchange-rate adjustment in August, led investors to question the competence of policymakers.	2015年7月，中国政府对股市进行了错误的干预，随后8月份又在没有进行良好沟通的情况下进行了汇率调整，这让许多投资者质疑决策者的能力。


These concerns have grown since the beginning of the year.	这些担忧自今年开年以来有所增加。


Currency policy remains confused, while newly introduced (and soon withdrawn) stock-market circuit breakers have accelerated market falls, as investors try to sell shares before liquidity disappears.	货币政策仍然让人摸不着头脑，而新引入（并很快叫停）的股市熔断机制加速了市场下跌，因为投资者试图在流动性消失之前卖掉股票。


Moreover, purchases by state-owned financial institutions, together with bans on sales by large institutional shareholders, cannot remain permanent features if the market is to be truly free.	此外，在真正的自由市场中，国有金融机构的买入以及对大型机构股东卖出的禁令都不可能持久。


Expected leadership changes – six of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee will be replaced over the next 18 months – will only exacerbate uncertainty.	预期的领导层变动——未来18个月中七大常委中的六人将被取代——也将加剧不确定性。


Labile politics are increasingly driving outcomes in other emerging markets as well.	不稳定的政治也在日益影响其他新兴市场的结果。


In Brazil, the government struggles to balance its populist agenda with lower commodity prices, dwindling growth, and persistent inflation.	在巴西，政府难以在其民粹主义日程和下跌的大宗商品价格、低迷的增长和持久的通胀之间取得平衡。


Moreover, a corruption scandal has paralyzed reform.	此外，腐败丑闻掣肘着改革。


Small wonder that Brazil’s stock market has fallen 28% since last May.	因此毫不奇怪巴西股市自去年5月以来下跌28%。


In Russia, too, politics has aggravated the negative oil-price shock.	在俄罗斯，政治也加剧了油价带来的冲击。


Western sanctions have contributed to an already slowing growth trajectory, and are threatening Russia’s ability to raise debt capital in global markets.	西方制裁令已然减速的增长雪上加霜，并且威胁到俄罗斯在全球市场上筹集债务资本的能力。


The ruble has plummeted 130% since 2014 began, and GDP in 2015 contracted by 3.7%.	2014年初以来，卢布已经贬值130%，2015年GDP也萎缩3. 7%。


Yet Russia is a star performer compared to Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro’s government has overseen the economy’s total disintegration.	但与委内瑞拉相比，俄罗斯的表现堪称抢眼。 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府导致经济土崩瓦解。


Indeed, analysts are declaring the country is past the “point of no return.”	事实上，分析师认为委内瑞拉已经踏上了“不归路”。


Even the relatively dynamic India is struggling, as its exciting reform agenda is challenged by social protests.	即使是活力相对充足的印度日子也不好过，其令人振奋的改革日程受到社会动荡的挑战。


In Europe, the efficacy of the European Central Bank’s monetary policies is waning as the political scene becomes increasingly fragile.	在欧洲，欧洲央行货币政策的效果随着政治形势日益脆弱而日益疲软。


In the United Kingdom, polls show the June 23 referendum on continued European Union membership will be extremely tight – an obvious threat to market stability, reflected in the immediate sell-off of pounds.	在英国，民调表明6月23日关于是否保留欧盟成员资格的全民公决呈现胶着状态——这显然是对市场稳定的一大威胁，英镑立刻遭遇抛售就是明证。


Meanwhile, the migration crisis threatens Germany’s government; splits are now deepening within Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, which is losing popular support.	与此同时，移民危机威胁着德国政府； 德国总理默克尔所在政党内部的分歧正在深化，并且该党正在失去群众支持。


The unilateral decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to block the flow of migrants across their borders has fueled political turbulence.	奥地利和巴尔干国家单方面宣布阻止移民进入本国国界加剧了政治动荡。


The migrant crisis will have far-reaching ramifications, including the potential destruction of the Schengen zone.	移民危机的后果将十分深远，可能摧毁申根协定。


In Southern Europe, Spain’s recent elections were inconclusive, and the absence of a stable government could derail an economic recovery that gained traction in 2015.	在南欧，西班牙的最新选举出现了不确定结果，而缺乏稳定政府可能让2015年起势的经济复苏夭折。


Meanwhile, the Italian government’s bank bail-ins have fueled volatility, with leading banks experiencing extraordinary one-day stock declines.	与此同时，意大利政府的银行自救（bail-in）加剧了波动，大银行纷纷遭遇单日股价暴跌。


The damage to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s reputation for reliability has prompted fears of renewed political turmoil.	这对总理伦齐的可靠性声誉造成了极大损害，燃起了对政治动荡死灰复燃的担忧。


Turning to Japan, the strength in equities since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office has been founded on his “Abenomics” strategy’s “three arrows”: monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms.	再来看日本，首相安倍晋三执政以来的股市强势建立在他的“安倍经济学”的“三支箭”的基础上：货币刺激、财政刺激和结构改革。


The Bank of Japan has launched one arrow, expanding the monetary base to ¥80 trillion ($710 billion) and more recently adopting negative interest rates.	日本银行发出了第一支箭，将货币基础扩大到80万亿日元，最近更是实施了负利率。


But momentum has faded considerably, as investors wait for the structural reforms needed for sustained improvement in economic, and market, fundamentals.	但这一势头大为减弱，因为投资者都在观望保持经济和市场基本面持续改善的结构改革。


In the US, deep voter frustration has fueled Bernie Sanders’s leftist bid for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination and the astonishingly vitriolic campaign waged by Donald Trump.	在美国，选民的深深的失望让伯尼·桑德斯在民主党总统候选人竞逐中所抛出的左倾方案大受欢迎，而唐纳德·特朗普令人震惊的“愤怒”选战基调也很有市场。


With Trump’s lead for the Republican Party’s nomination widening following the “Super Tuesday” primaries in ten states, financial markets, which seek stability and predictability, are struggling to find it in the politics of the world’s largest economy.	在“超级星期二”共和党十个州的初选中，特朗普大获全胜，渴望稳定和可预测性的金融市场难以在世界最大经济体的政治中找到稳定。


History may not repeat itself, but let’s hope it finds its rhyme.	历史也许不会重复自己，但但愿它能找到旋律。


Back in the 1990s, the US economy stabilized and then surged forward, driven by accelerating productivity and abetted by sound monetary and fiscal policy.	20世纪90年代，美国经济实现了稳定，然后在生产率增长加速的驱动和可靠货币和财政政策的推动下稳步向前。


But economies may prove to be easier to mend than today’s dysfunctional politics, which may be part and parcel of the “new normal.”	但经济也许比今天混乱的政治更容易治愈，而政治混乱也许将是“新常态”的重要部分。


The Pope’s Dangerous Sex Appeal	教皇的危险性观点


NEW YORK – Human sexual behavior can be perilous, as the ghastly rape of a 23-year-old woman by six men on a Delhi bus in December once again showed.	纽约—人类性行为有可能是危险的，一名23岁的德里女性12月在公交车上惨遭六名男子轮奸的案件再次证明了这一点。


After going to the cinema, she and her boyfriend were beaten, before she was brutally assaulted and attacked with an iron rod for more than an hour.	她和男朋友在看电影回家途中遭到袭击，她被严重侵犯，并遭遇了超过一小时的铁棍殴打。


Thirteen days later, she died from her wounds.	十三天后，她因伤势过重去世。


It is often claimed that rape is not really about sex, but about power.	人们常说，强奸不是真正的性行为，而是暴力。


True enough.	诚如是。


But it is not unrelated to sex.	但强奸并非与性毫无关系。


The sexual act is used as a form of torture, or even, in some cases, as a deadly weapon.	性行为是虐待的一种形式，甚至在某些案件中是致命武器。


But that was not what Pope Benedict XVI had in mind when he spoke recently about the dangers of sexual behavior.	但这并不是本笃十六世最近关于性行为危险演讲的主旨。


In his pre-Christmas speech to the Roman Curia, the pope did not mention rape, let alone the sexual murder in Delhi.	在其罗马教廷圣诞演讲中，教皇并没有提到强奸，更别说德里的性谋杀了。


Instead, in his defense of the family – or, as he would put it, the sacred union between man and woman – he pointed out how sexual arrangements outside that union were a threat to human civilization.	相反，他为家庭做了辩护——他称之为男人和女人之间难得的联盟——指出这一联盟之外的性安排是对人类文明的威胁。


What he had in mind, without quite saying so, were same-sex unions.	他在含沙射影地抨击同性联盟。


It was a deeply confused speech.	这真是个令人困扰的演讲。


His disquisition on the dangers posed by same-sex marriage followed a passage deploring the modern tendency to avoid lifelong commitments in human relationships, as if that were not precisely what gay marriage is about.	他先是谴责了一番现代社会人际关系中不再有一辈子的承诺，接着谈论了同性婚姻的危险，好像后者就是前者似的。


Of course, in the pope’s view, commitment in gay relationships is part of the problem: more and more people, especially in the Western world, now claim the freedom to choose their own sexual identities instead of sticking to the “natural” roles “ordained by God.”	当然，在教皇看来，同性恋关系中的承诺乃是问题的一部分：越来越多的人，特别是西方人，宣称拥有选择自己性身份的自由，而不必坚持“上帝规定的”“自然”角色。


The pope’s words suggest that homosexuality is a kind of lifestyle choice, a form of modern decadence – a secular, even blasphemous act against God and nature – rather than a fact of birth.	教皇的话意味着同性恋是一种生活方式选择，是一种现代的堕落——是对上帝和天性的世俗甚至亵渎的行为——而不是生而具有的权利。


This is a common belief among religious believers, be they conservative Catholics, Protestants, Jews, or Muslims.	这是信教者的共同信念，不管是保守天主徒、新教徒、犹太人还是穆斯林。


Tellingly, Benedict quoted Gilles Bernheim, the Chief Rabbi of France, who has expressed similar views on the threats to conventional family life.	本笃十六世还引用了法国首席大拉比Gilles Bernheim的话，后者表达了类似的传统家庭生活受到了威胁的观点。


Fear of sexual behavior is one of the main reasons why most religions establish strict rules concerning sexual relationships.	对性行为的恐慌是大部分宗教设置了关于性关系的严格规定的主要原因。


Marriage is a way to contain our dangerous desires.	婚姻是解决我们危险欲望的一种方式。


Restricting sexual conduct to procreation is supposed to make the world safer and more peaceful.	把性行为限制在生殖需要范围内被认为可以让世界更安全、更和平。


Because women excite the desires of men, they are thought to pose a threat outside the confines of the family home.	由于是女性激起了男性的欲望，因此她们被认为是家庭之外的威胁。


That is why, in some societies, they are not allowed to emerge from those confines, or may do so only if fully covered and accompanied by a male relative.	这就是为何在某些社会中，女性不允许出现在家庭范围之外，或者只有在男性亲属寸步不离的陪同下才能外出。


Benedict is not so extreme.	本笃十六世没有那么极端。


Nor does he advocate violence against homosexuals.	他也没有宣言针对同性恋的暴力。


On the contrary, he sees himself as a deeply civilized man of peace.	相反，他自视为浸淫文明甚深的和平人士。


But I would argue that his speech actually encourages the kind of sexual aggression that can result in the savagery that took place in Delhi.	但我得说，他的演讲实际上是鼓励了性攻击，德里所发生的野蛮事件可能正是由此而起。


The six rapists who killed the young woman were not modern decadents who chose to defy God and nature by claiming new secular freedoms, let alone heterodox sexual identities.	杀害这位年轻女性的六名强奸犯并不是以宣告新世俗自由否定上帝和天性的现代渎神者，更不是性行为异端。


From what we can surmise from this case – and many others like it – they are the semi-urbanized products of a highly conventional rural society where the roles of men, and especially women, are tightly regulated.	我们可以从这宗案件（和其他多宗类似案件）中推断的是他们是高度传统的农村社会半城市化的产物，在这样的社会中，人，特别是女人的角色是严格限制的。


Their victim, a well-educated physiotherapy intern, seems to have been a great deal more modern than her attackers.	他们的受害者是一位受过良好教育的理疗实习生，她身上比施害者拥有多得多的现代元素。


The men were not uneducated, but they were unable to cope with the freedoms of contemporary women.	施害者并非未受过教育，但他们无法接受当代女性的自由。


For that reason, the six rapists saw her as a “loose” woman, a city slut, fair game.	因此，这六名强奸犯将她是为“浪荡”女子，都市娼妇，可以加以猥亵。


After all, she was out late with her boyfriend.	毕竟她那么晚了还和男朋友在外面晃荡。


That is precisely how the men taunted the young couple: What was an unmarried young woman doing out in the Delhi streets with a young man?	这些人正是这么奚落这对年轻情侣的：未婚年轻女子怎么可以和年轻男子在德里户外街头干什么？


She deserved what was coming to her.	她完全是自作自受。


The reaction in some quarters followed similar lines.	一些地区对此事的反应也是如此。


When demonstrations against sexual violence erupted in Delhi, the Indian president’s son denounced the protesters as “dented and painted.”	当德里爆发反性暴力游行的时候，印度总统之子还抨击示威者“沐猴而冠”。


Some politicians have described rape victims as “adventurous.”	一些政客将强奸受害者描述为“喜欢冒险”。


Violent hatred of homosexuals comes from a similar source.	对同性恋者的暴力恨意也来自类似的源头。


Just as women outside the family home – women who stake a claim to public space, working and living among men – are seen as dangerous temptresses, men who love men are often regarded as predators, ready to pounce on society’s children.	正如家庭范围之外的女性——在公共场合抛头露面、与男性一起工作和生活者——被视为危险的勾引者，爱男人的男性通常会被视为袭击者，时刻紧盯着社会中的儿童。


What many people fear is not just uncontrolled sexual behavior, but sex itself.	很多人所害怕并不只是受控制的性行为，而是性本身。


But the more sex is repressed and people are made to fear it the greater the chance of sexual violence, because anyone who might possibly stir our sexual desires, man or woman, becomes a potential target of our rage.	但性越是抑制，人们越是害怕它，性暴力的机会就越大，因为任何可能撩起性欲的人，不管是男人还是女人，都可能激起我们的愤怒。


This might help to explain what happened in Delhi, but it does not in any way excuse it.	这有助于解释德里事件的起因，但这绝不是借口。


After all, most men in that city would not beat a young couple with metal pipes and rape the woman to death.	毕竟，这个城市的绝大部分人并没有用金属管子袭击年轻情侣，并将女方强奸致死。


Hundreds of thousands of Indians are demonstrating in the streets to show their loathing of such atrocities.	千百万印度人上街游行也显示出他们对这一暴行的愤怒。


One wishes that the pope had said something about that, and had offered some words of encouragement to the men and women in India who have had enough of sexual violence coming not from modern libertines, but from deeply repressed men.	教皇就此说了些什么，并出声鼓励了饱受来自性压抑的男性而不是现代自由放任的性暴力的印度男女，要是这样就好了。


But that is too much to expect from a man who appears to understand little about sexual life.	但对于一个对性生活了解甚少的人来说，这有点苛求了。


That is why, instead of talking about rapists, he targeted peaceful homosexual men and women who wish to show their commitment to their lovers by marrying them.	这就是为何本笃十六世没有论及强奸犯，而是把目标指向了愿意为爱人做出承诺并与之结婚的同性恋男女。


Popes, Saints, and Religious Competition	教皇、圣徒和宗教竞争


CAMBRIDGE – The election of the first non-European pope is long overdue.	美国剑桥—第一任非欧洲教皇的当选姗姗来迟。


After all, Pope Francis’s native region, Latin America, is currently home to nearly half (44%) of the world’s Catholics.	毕竟，教皇方济各的祖国阿根廷拥有全世界近一半（44%）的天主教徒。


But the Catholic Church is increasingly losing out to Protestant competition there and elsewhere.	但无论在世界何地，天主教都与新教的竞争中节节败退。


Just look at the statistics.	看看数据。


Evangelicalism is the fastest-growing world religion by conversion – a trend that underlies the strong expansion of Protestantism in traditionally Roman Catholic Latin America.	从皈依角度讲，福音派是世界增长最快的宗教——这也是新教在罗马天主教的传统基地拉丁美洲呈迅速扩张之势的原因。 1900年，拉丁美洲新教徒只占人口的2.


Protestants in Latin America accounted for only 2.2% of the population in 1900, but 16.4% in 2010, with growth coming mainly at the expense of Catholics, whose population share fell from 90.4% to 82.3%.	新教徒人数的增长大多来自天主教徒改宗，后者占人口比例从90. 4%降至82.


The Catholic Church understands this competition, but it confronts a chronic shortage of priests.	天主教知道这一竞争，但它面临着长期教士短缺问题。


As a result, the creation of saints is becoming an important way of retaining the faithful.	因此，打造圣徒就成为留住信众的一个重要方式。


Indeed, the choice of a Latin American pope echoes a prior shift in the geographical distribution of new saints.	事实上，选择拉丁美洲人当教皇印证了此前新圣徒地理分布的变化趋势。


Since the early part of the twentieth century – and, most clearly, since John Paul II’s papacy (1978-2005) – the traditional dominance of Italy and other European countries in the locations of blessed persons has waned.	自20世纪上半叶以来——趋势明确则是自保罗二世即位（1978—2005）以来——意大利和欧洲国家垄断受祝福者的局面被打破。


This is reflected in the two stages of saint-making: beatification (the first stage of the process and currently the status of John Paul II) and canonization.	这反映在打造圣徒的两个步骤中：受福（这一程序的第一步，保罗二世目前即达到了这一阶段）和追圣。


The rationale for this shift is to use national saints to inspire Catholics – and thereby counter the competition from Protestants, especially Evangelicals.	这一变化的原因在于利用国家圣徒来启发天主教徒——从而与新教特别是福音教派竞争。


This phenomenon is most clear in Latin America, but it applies to North America, Asia, and Africa as well.	这一现象在拉丁美洲最为明显，但也存在于北美、亚洲和非洲等地。


And we think that the naming of a Latin American pope has the same underlying motivation – to compete with the growing threat of Protestantism in this region.	我们认为任命拉丁美洲教皇也是出于同样的动机——与该地区日渐增加的新教威胁相竞争。


The idea of using saints to compete with evangelicals in Latin America goes back a long way – the friars accompanying conquering Spanish troops introduced patron saints in every nucleated community.	用圣徒来与拉丁美洲福音教派竞争的想法来源已久——随西班��征服者而来的修道士为每一个有核社区（nucleated community）留下了守护圣徒。


Coupled with persistent shortages of priests, the worship of saints in Latin America became more embedded in the region’s culture than in that of Europe.	在拉丁美洲，对圣徒的崇拜由于牧师的持续短缺而深深地嵌入了宗教文化，其影响比欧洲更深。


In 1992, John Paul II referred to evangelical groups in Latin America as “rapacious wolves” who were “luring Latin American Catholics away from the Church of Rome,” and he decried the “[h]uge sums of money…spent on evangelical proselytizing campaigns aimed specifically at Catholics.”	1992年，保罗二世将拉丁美洲的福音教派称为“贪婪的狼”，说他们在“诱惑拉丁美洲天主教徒脱离罗马教廷，”他谴责“福音教派在诱导改宗方面一掷万金，特别针对天主教。


His concerns with Protestant competition in Latin America were – and remain – understandable, particularly in Brazil, Chile, and Guatemala, which have seen sharp increases in Evangelical adherence.	”他对拉丁美洲的新教竞争的担忧是可以理解的（现在仍是如此），特别是在巴西。 智利和危地马拉，这些地区的福音教派皈依者人数激增。


John Paul II changed the process of saint-making dramatically.	保罗二世极大地改变了造圣的程序。


He personally beatified 319 people (non-martyrs), compared to a total of only 259 by the 37 previous popes since 1585.	他本人宣福了319人（非殉道者），而1585年以来在他之前的37任教皇总共只宣福了259人。


He also made 80 saints, compared to a prior total of 165.	他还封任了80名圣徒，此前封任圣徒总数为165人。


Pope Benedict XVI’s (2005-2013) large number of saints (44) reflects mainly the large stock of beatified people left behind by John Paul II.	教皇本笃十六世（2005—2013）也大规模封圣（44人），这也是保罗二世大量宣福的反映。


As part of this process, Benedict XVI dramatically shortened the number of years that blessed persons had to wait to graduate from beatification to sainthood.	作为这一程序的一部分，本笃十六世大大缩短了受福者从宣福到封圣的等待时间。


For example, John Paul II became a blessed person a mere six years after his death.	比如，保罗二世在死后六年就成为受福者。


With respect to competition with Protestants, the key feature of the last two popes is the shift in the geographical distribution of blessed persons away from the traditional dominance of Europe.	在与新教竞争这个问题上，过去两任教皇的一个重要特征是他们宣福的人的地理分布重心开始移出传统重镇欧洲。


Under John Paul II and Benedict XVI, the share of (non-martyr) beatifications from Latin America was 10.5%, along with 4.6% for North America, 3.9% for Asia, and 1.9% for Africa.	在保罗二世和本笃十六世在位期间，拉丁美洲（非殉道者）受福比例为10. 5%，而北美为4.


Similarly, Latin America accounted for 9.8% of (non-martyr) canonizations, along with 6.6% for North America, 4.1% for Asia, and 0.8% for Africa.	类似地，拉丁美洲的（非殉道者）追圣人数比例为9. 8%，北美为6.


These shares compare with the mere handfuls of blessed persons from these regions who were named by previous popes.	8%。 而在此前诸任教皇任期中，这些地区的受福者比例可以忽略不计。


Francis will visit Brazil in July to attend World Youth Day.	方济各将于7月访问巴西，出席世界青年日。


There have been suggestions that he will visit other Latin American countries this year, including his homeland, Argentina.	有消息称他将在今年访问其他拉丁美洲国家，包括故乡阿根廷。


According to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Brazil has the largest Catholic population in the world.	据皮尤宗教和公共生活论坛（Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life）的数据，巴西是全世界天主教徒人口最多的国家。


Combined, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina account for 26% of the world’s Catholics.	巴西、墨西哥和阿根廷加起来占世界天主教徒总数的26%。


Yet Latin America’s Catholic population appears to be leveling off, due to falling birth rates and conversions out of Catholicism. 	但拉丁美洲的天主教人口并未见长，原因是出生率的下降和改信他教。


The combination of the highest share of Catholics in the world with a decline in the share of religious adherents leaves Francis facing a strategic dilemma.	占世界天主教徒人数比例最高，同时又面临宗教信仰份额下降的局面，这意味着方济各需要面对战略两难。


Either he can focus on regaining Latin America for the Catholic Church, or he can place longer-term bets on Sub-Saharan Africa, where both the population and Catholicism are now growing faster than anywhere else in the world.	他要么专注于让天主教在拉丁美洲重振雄风，要么放长眼光，下注于撒哈拉以南非洲地区，该地区的人口增长率高于世界其他地区，也是天主教徒增长最快的地方。


Where will the next saints come from?	下一批圣徒会来自哪里？


Population and the Pope	人口和教皇


MELBOURNE – As Pope Francis was returning to Rome from the Philippines last month, he told journalists about a woman who had had seven children by caesarean section and was now pregnant again.	墨尔本—上个月，教皇方济各在从菲律宾返回罗马途中向记者说了一位女性的故事。 这位女性通过剖腹产生了七个孩子，现在又怀上了第九个。


This was, he said, “tempting God."	他说这是在“诱惑上帝”。


He asked her if she wanted to leave seven orphans.	他问她是否想让七个孩子成为孤儿。


Catholics have approved ways of regulating births, he continued, and should practice “responsible parenthood" rather than breeding “like rabbits."	他继续说，天主教徒拥有可采用的手段控制生育，也应该构建“负责任的亲子关系”而不是“像兔子一样”猛生。


Francis's “rabbit" comment was widely covered in the media, but fewer reported that he had also said that no outside institution should impose its views about regulating family size on the developing world.	方济各的“兔子”说被媒体广泛报道，但很少有媒体报道，他还说，外部机构不应该将其关于家庭规模控制的观点施加给发展中世界。


“Every people," he insisted, should be able to maintain its identity without being “ideologically colonized."	“每一个人”，他说，都应该能够保持自己的身份而不被“意识形态殖民”。


The irony of this remark is that in the Philippines, a country of more than 100 million people, of whom four out of five are Roman Catholic, it is precisely the Church that has been the ideological colonizer.	这番评论的讽刺之处在于，在菲律宾这个人口超1亿并且五分之四为罗马天主教徒的国家，天主教会正是意识形态殖民者。


It is the Church, after all, that has vigorously sought to impose its opposition to contraception on the population, opposing even the provision of contraceptives by the government to the rural poor.	毕竟，是教会大力寻求向菲律宾人施加反避孕观点，他们甚至反对政府向农村贫困人口提供避孕手段。


Meanwhile, surveys have repeatedly shown that most Filipinos favor making contraceptives available, which is not surprising, given that the Church-approved birth-control methods mentioned by Francis are demonstrably less reliable than modern alternatives.	与此同时，调查研究一再表明大部分菲律宾人愿意采取服用可以得到的避孕手段，这并不令人奇怪，因为方济各所提到的教会允许的生育控制方法没有现代化手段可靠。


It is hard to believe that if the Philippines had been colonized by, say, Protestant Britain rather than Catholic Spain, the use of contraception would be an issue there today.	如果菲律宾当初是被（比如）英国新教徒而不是西班牙天主教徒殖民，很难想象时至今日使用避孕手段还会成为问题。


The larger issue that Francis raised, however, is whether it is legitimate for outside agencies to promote family planning in developing countries.	但是，方济各所提出的更大的问题是外部机构在发展中国家推广家庭控制是否合法。


There are several reasons why it is.	有很多理由认为答案是肯定的。


First, leaving aside the “ideological" question of whether family planning is a right, there is overwhelming evidence to show that a lack of access to contraception is bad for women's health.	首先，搁置家庭控制是否是一种权利这一“意识形态”问题不谈，压倒性证据表明无法获得避孕手段有损于妇女的健康。


Frequent pregnancies, especially in countries without universal modern health care, are associated with high maternal mortality.	频繁怀孕，特别是在无法获得全民现代医疗的国家，与母婴死亡率高企密切相关。


Aid by outside agencies to help developing countries reduce premature deaths in women is surely not “ideological colonization."	外部机构帮助发展中国家降低妇女早逝绝不是“意识形态殖民”。


Second, when births are more widely spaced, children do better, both physically and in terms of educational attainment.	其次，如果生活空间更大，孩子的表现也会更好，不管是身体方面还是教育方面。


We should all agree that it is desirable for aid organizations to promote the health and education of children in developing countries.	想必我们都同意，援助组织促进发展中国家儿童的健康和教育是值得追求的事业。


The broader and more controversial reason for promoting family planning, however, is that making it available to all who want it is in the interest of the world's seven billion people and the generations that, barring disaster, should be able to inhabit the planet for untold millennia to come.	但是，更广泛、更具争议性的支持家庭控制的理由是，让所有想进行家庭控制的人取得这一目标符合全世界七十亿人口及其子孙后代的利益。 他们战胜灾难，理应在这个星球上继续生存下去。


And here, the relationship between climate change and birth control needs to be brought into focus.	在这方面，气候变化和生育控制的关系应该重点关注。


The key facts about climate change are well-known: Our planet's atmosphere has already absorbed such a large quantity of human-produced greenhouse gases that global warming is underway, with more extreme heat waves, droughts, and floods than ever before.	关于气候变化的重要事实已是众所周知：地球大气层吸收了极其大量的人为产生的温室气体，以至于地球正在变暖，极端热浪、干旱和洪水比以往任何时候都要频繁。


Arctic sea ice is melting, and rising sea levels are threatening to inundate low-lying densely populated coastal regions in several countries.	北冰洋冰盖正在融化，上升的海平面有可能吞没一些国家低海拔沿海地区。


If rainfall patterns change, hundreds of millions of people could become climate refugees.	如果降水模式发生改变，有可能将有数亿人沦为气候难民。


Moreover, an overwhelming majority of scientists in the relevant fields believe that we are on track to exceed the level of global warming at which feedback mechanisms will kick in and climate change will become uncontrollable, with unpredictable and possibly catastrophic consequences.	此外，绝大多数相关领域科学家都认为我们正在走向全球变暖的临界水平，超过哦这一水平，反馈机制就会起作用，气候变化将变得不可控制，带来不可预料的、可能是灾难性的后果。


It is often pointed out that it is the affluent countries that have caused the problem, owing to their higher greenhouse-gas emissions over the past two centuries.	常有人说，丰裕国家是造成问题的原因，因为它们在过去两百年中排放了更多的温室气体。


They continue to have the highest levels of per capita emissions, and they can reduce emissions with the least hardship.	它们的人均排放量仍然是世界最高，并且它们减排最不费力。


There is no doubt that, ethically, the world's developed countries should be taking the lead in reducing emissions.	毫无疑问，从道德上讲，世界发达国家应该在减排问题上起领导作用。


What is not so often mentioned, however, is the extent to which continuing global population growth would undermine the impact of whatever emission reductions affluent countries can be persuaded to make.	但是，不常提及的是持续增长的全球人口将严重影响丰裕国家可能同意的减排量的效果。


Four factors influence the level of emissions: economic output per capita; the units of energy used to generate each unit of economic output; greenhouse gases emitted per unit of energy; and total population.	四个因素影响着排放水平：人��经济产出、生产单位经济产出的能源使用量、单位能源温室气体排放量，以及总人口。


A reduction in any three of these factors will be offset by an increase in the fourth.	任何三个因素的下降都会因为第四个因素的上升而失效。


In the “Summary for Policymakers" of its 2014 Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that, globally, economic and population growth continue to be “the most important drivers" of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion.	在气候变化政府间委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）2014年《第五评估报告》（Fifth Assessment Report）的《决策者总结》（Summary for Policymakers）一节指出，全球而言，经济和人口增长依然是化石燃料燃烧导致的二氧化碳排放增长的“最重要因素”。


According to the World Health Organization, an estimated 222 million women in developing countries do not want to have children now, but lack the means to ensure that they do not conceive.	据世卫组织的数据，如今又2. 22亿发展中国家妇女不想要孩子，但无法获得确保不怀孕的手段。


Providing them with access to contraception would help them plan their lives as they wish, weaken demand for abortion, reduce maternal deaths, give children a better start in life, and contribute to slowing population growth and greenhouse-gas emissions, thus benefiting us all.	让她们获得避孕手段有助于她们按自己意愿规划生活，降低堕胎需求，减少产妇死亡，让孩子获得更好的生命起点，也能降低人口增长和温室气体排放，因此有利于所有人。


Who could oppose such an obvious win-win proposition?	谁能反对如此显而易见的双赢建议？


The only naysayers, we may suspect, are those in the grip of a religious ideology that they seek to impose on others, no matter what the consequences for women, children, and the rest of the world, now and for centuries to come.	我们怀疑，唯一的否定者正是那些把持着宗教意识形态并寻求强加给他人而不顾会给现在和未来几百年的妇女、儿童和世界其他部分造成什么后果的人。


Reconsidering Man’s Dominion	反思人类主宰


PRINCETON – In May, Pope Francis released his historic encyclical, Laudatio Si, or “Praise Be.”	普林斯顿—上个月，教皇方济各发布了他历史性的教皇通谕《赞美你》（Laudatio Si）。


He chose his papal name, he explains in the text, because he considers St. Francis of Assisi to be “the example par excellence of care for the vulnerable and of an integral ecology lived out joyfully and authentically.”	在这篇通谕中，他解释道，他选择方济各作为教名是因为他认为亚西西的圣方济各（St. Francis of Assisi）是“照顾弱者和快乐而真实的整体生态（integral ecology）的典范。


His namesake showed that concern for nature is inseparable from justice for the poor, social commitment, and peace within oneself.	”他的命名哲学表明，对自然的关注与穷人的正义、社会承诺以及内心平静不可分割。


The encyclical’s title refers to the Canticle of the Sun, St. Francis’s song of praise to God for all creation – the foremost expression of environmental holism within the Roman Catholic tradition.	方济各通谕的标题参考了圣方济各歌颂创建一切的上帝的《太阳颂》（Canticle of the Sun）——这也是罗马天主教传统中最重要的环境整体论表述。


Yet the Canticle’s praise for “Brother Sun” and “Sister Moon”has seemed so close to nature-worship that some have doubted whether it could ever be included in mainstream Catholic thinking.	但《太阳颂》所歌颂的“太阳兄”（Brother Sun）和“月亮妹”（Sister Moon）似乎过于接近自然崇拜，以至于有人质疑这是否可以包含在主流天主教思想中。


Those doubts have now been laid to rest.	这样的质疑可以休矣。


Francis’ predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, began to turn the Church’s attention toward the need for environmental sustainability.	方济各的前任本笃十六世开始将天主教会的注意力转向了环境可持续性的需要。


Francis has taken this process much further.	方济各则把这一过程大大地向前推进了一步。


Laudatio Si has received considerable media attention, most of it focused on its uncompromising call for action on climate change.	《赞美你》得到了巨大的媒体关注，其中大部分集中于其坚定地呼吁对气候变化采取行动。


That is appropriate, for it is of the utmost importance that the leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics has unequivocally stated that scientific studies attribute “most global warming” in recent decades to greenhouse gases, “released mainly as a result of human activity.”	这是合适的，因为作为全世界12亿罗马天主教徒的领袖，方济各毫不含糊地说出科学研究将近几十年来“最严重的全球变暖”归因于温室气体，而温室气体“主要作为人类活动的结果释放”，这具有极端重要性。


There is, however, another aspect of the encyclical that has received much less attention.	但是，方济各的通谕还有一个角度受到的关注要少得多。


St. Francis is among the most popular Catholic saints because of his reputation as a friend of animals.	圣方济各是最受欢迎的天主教圣徒之一，这是因为他有动物之友的名声。


In keeping with that tradition, Laudatio Si amounts to the strongest statement against harming animals ever made by a pope in a document as authoritative as an encyclical.	《赞美你》继承了方济各的传统，发出了教皇以权威的通谕反对伤害动物的最强音。


Mainstream Christian thinking about animals is rooted in the Book of Genesis,where God is said to have granted man dominion over all the animals.	主流基督教的动物思想植根于《创世纪》。 在《创世纪》中，据说教皇授予人们主宰一切动物的地位。


St. Thomas Aquinas interpreted that verse as implying that it simply does not matter how man behaves toward animals; the only reason why we should not inflict whatever cruelties we like on animals is that doing so may lead to cruelty to humans.	圣托马斯·阿奎那对这段经文的解释是，它表明人不论如何对待动物都没有关系； 我们之所以不应该随心所欲虐待动物，唯一原因是这样做可能导致虐待人类。


A few Christian thinkers have sought to reinterpret “dominion” as “stewardship,” suggesting that God entrusted humanity to care for his creation.	少数基督教思想家试图将“主宰”重新解释为“管理”，认为上帝信任人类照看他的创造物。


But it remained a minority view, favored by environmentalists and animal protectionists, and Aquinas’s interpretation remained the prevailing Catholic doctrine until the late twentieth century.	但这一观点仍是少数派，受到环保主义者和动物保护主义者的支持，而阿奎那的解释直到二十世纪末仍占据天主教思想主流。


Francis has now come down decisively against the mainstream view, saying that Christians “have at times incorrectly interpreted the Scriptures,” and insisting that “we must forcefully reject the notion that our being created in God’s image and given dominion over the earth justifies absolute domination over other creatures.”	如今，方济各平地一声雷，反对主流观点，指出基督徒“有时会误读圣经”，并坚持认为“我们必须强力拒绝这样的概念：我们被创造为上帝的形象并被授予地球主宰权就意味着我们拥有了对其他生物的绝对主宰权。


Our “dominion” over the universe, he declares, should be understood “in the sense of responsible stewardship.”	”我们对宇宙的“主宰权”，方济各宣称，应该“从负责任地管理这一角度”理解。


Against the background of nearly 2,000 years of Catholic thinking about “man’s dominion,” this is a revolutionary change.	近2,000年来，天主教都持有“人类主宰”观念，在这一背景下，方济各的通谕代表着革命性的变化。


But the encyclical includes another statement that could have even more far-reaching implications.	但通谕中还有一项影响或许更加深远的表述。


That statement, which originally appeared in the Catechism of the Catholic Church issued by Pope John Paul II in 1992, calls it “contrary to human dignity to cause animals to suffer or die needlessly.”	这一表述脱胎自在1992年教皇若望·保禄二世《天主教教理问答》中，它说，“让动物受苦或毫无必要地死去有悖于人类尊严。


To ensure that the sentiment would be noticed, Francis tweeted it.	”为了确保这一情绪被注意到，方济各还就此发了一条tweet。


(Yes, Francis tweets, using the Twitter handle @Pontifex.)	（是的，方济各的tweet，昵称是@Pontifex。 ）


When is suffering and death “needless”?	什么是受苦和“毫无必要��的死亡？


If you can nourish yourself adequately without eating meat, isn’t buying meat needlessly causing, or at least being complicit in causing, the death of an animal?	如果你不吃肉也能活得好好的，那么买肉不就是毫无必要地造成了（至少间接造成了）某头动物的死亡？


Isn’t buying eggs from hens who have led a miserable life, jammed into small wire cages, needlessly causing, or being complicit in causing, the suffering of animals?	买鸡蛋不就是毫无必要地造成了（或间接造成了）动物的受苦——如果下蛋的母鸡生活悲惨，被囚禁在狭小的铁丝笼中的话？


Before Cardinal Ratzinger became Pope Benedict XVI, he gave an interview in which he deplored the “industrial use of creatures” such as hens living “so packed together that they become just caricatures of birds.”	在拉辛格枢机主教（Cardinal Ratzinger）成为本笃十六世前，他接受了一次采访，在采访中他谴责“生物的工业使用”，比如母鸡生活得“如此‘憋屈’，活像是讽刺漫画上的鸟类。


Unfortunately, right now, tens of billions of chickens are being forced to live this way; indeed, mankind’s realm is full of unnecessarily suffering animals.	”不幸的是，如今，上百亿小鸡被迫以这种方式生活； 事实上，人类的领域充满了毫无必要地受苦的动物。


Although animal advocates implored Ratzinger to reiterate his views on animal welfare after he became Pope, he never did so.	尽管动物保护主义者在拉辛格成为教皇后恳请他重申其关于动物福利的观点，但他从未这样做。


Francis, by contrast, appears to have been referring to factory-farmed animals when he spoke, in The Joy of the Gospel, of “weak and defenseless beings who are frequently at the mercy of economic interests or indiscriminate exploitation.”	相反，方济各似乎在其《福音书的快乐》（The Joy of the Gospel）中便将工厂化饲养的动物称为“孱弱的、毫无防备的生物，任由经济利益无差别剥削宰割。 ”


Now, in Laudatio Si, Francis quotes the passage in the Gospel of Luke, in which Jesus says of the birds that “not one of them is forgotten before God.”	如今，在《赞美你》中，方济各引用了《路加福音》的内容——耶稣说鸟类“在上帝面前从未被忘记。


Francis then asks: “How then can we possibly mistreat them or cause them harm?”	”接着，方济各问道：“那么，我们如何能够虐待它们，让它们受伤害？


It is a good question, because we do mistreat them, and on a massive scale.	”这是个很好的问题，因为我们确实在虐待它们，并且是大规模虐待它们。


Most Roman Catholics participate in this mistreatment, a few by raising chickens, ducks, and turkeys in ways that maximize profit by reducing animal welfare, and the majority by buying the products of factory farms.	大部分罗马天主教徒都参与了这一虐待，一些人的参与方式在饲养鸡、鸭和火鸡时通过减少动物福利实现利润最大化； 而大部分人的参与方式是购买工厂化养殖场的产品。


If Pope Francis can change that, he will, in my view, have done more good than any other pope in recent history.	如果教皇方济各可以改变这一点，那么在我看来，他将比最近任何一位教皇行善更多。


A Mexican Impasse for the Pope	教皇的墨西哥僵局


LIMA – On February 17, Pope Francis is scheduled to celebrate Mass in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, just south of the border with the United States.	利马—按计划，教皇方济各将于2月17日在位于美国边境线以南的墨西哥华雷斯城主持弥撒。


He will surely take that opportunity to urge support for the poor in Mexico and for those who have migrated north.	他肯定会利用这次机会敦促加强对墨西哥穷人和像北移民的墨西哥人的支持。


After all, that is what he did in September during his moving homily in New York’s Madison Square Garden.	毕竟，他在9月份的纽约麦迪逊广场花园的旅行布道中也这样做了。


Referring to the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US, he asked his listeners to reach out to “all those people who don’t appear to belong, or are second-class citizens…because they have no right to be there.”	他提到美国的1,100万未注册移民，要求他的听众将手伸向“所有因为没有权利居住在那里而……藏匿行踪或沦为二等公民的人。 ”


But the absence of rights is a problem that is neither unique to the US nor confined to immigrants who lack legal authorization to remain in the country in which they reside.	但缺少权利这一问题既非美国所独有，也不仅限于缺乏合法授权留在居住国的移民。


Far larger and far more damaging is the difficulty that afflicts the five billion people who lack documented property rights.	更大、更严重的问题是折磨着五十亿没有注册产权的人的困难。


In Mexico alone, there are ten million urban homes, 137 million hectares of land, and six million businesses whose owners’ rights are poorly protected.	光是在墨西哥，就有1,000万城市住房、1. 37亿英亩土地和六百万企业，它们的所有权得不到有效保护。


If Francis focuses only on undocumented immigration in his Juárez address, his message is likely to become bogged down in a debate about US security concerns and countries’ sovereign right to protect their borders.	如果方济各华雷斯弥撒中只关注未注册移民，那么他的话将陷入关于美国安全问题和国家保护边境的主权权利的争论。


If, instead, he expands the discussion to include the importance of clearly documented property rights within countries, he will be on much firmer ground.	相反，如果他将讨论范围扩大，将明确各国内部注册产权的重要性也包括进来，那么他的立场将大为稳固。


Property rights are a universal right enshrined in the US Constitution and the United Nations Charter.	产权是一项普世权利，写入了美国宪法和联合国宪章。


Indeed, it is in search of just such rights that many of the world’s poor are motivated to cross borders into countries like the US.	事实上，正是在追求这一权利的过程中，世界上许多穷人奋起穿越边境，进入美国等国家。


For those living in the richest parts of the world, it is easy to take clear property rights for granted.	对于生活在世界上最富裕地区的人来说，很容易将明晰的产权视为理所当然。


But the reality is that only 2.3 billion people have the documents to protect and leverage their rights – including approximately one billion people living in Japan, Singapore, and the democratic West, and another billion in certain developing countries and former Soviet states.	但在现实中，只有23亿人拥有保护和放大他们的权利的注册档案——其中大约十亿人生活在日本、新加坡和民主西方，另十亿人生活在一些发展中国家和前苏联国家。


Documentation is not just a bureaucratic stamp on a piece of paper.	注册档案不仅仅是一章盖有官僚印章的纸。


It is crucial to economic progress and inclusion.	它是经济进步和包容的关键。


The reason the undocumented have an interest in being properly documented – whether they know it or not – is that clear property rights provide their owners and the things they own with a lot of additional value.	未获注册者想得到恰当的注册，其原因——不管他们是否知道——在于明晰的产权为产权所有者和他们所有之物提供了大量附加值。


In the US or Europe, for example, a house not only serves as a shelter; it is also an address that can identify people for commercial, judicial, or civic purposes, and a reliable terminal for services, such as energy, water, sewage, or telephone lines.	比如，在美国或欧洲，房子不但是容身之所； 它也是能够用于商业、司法或民事活动目的的身份证明地址，同时也是能源、水、污水或电话线的可靠的服务终端。


Documentation also allows assets to be used as financial instruments, providing their owners with access to credit and capital.	注册档案还让资产可以用作金融工具，为资产所有者提供获得信用和资本的机会。


If you want to take out a loan – whether you are a mining company in Colorado or a Greek shoemaker in New York – you must first pledge documented property in one form or another as a guarantee.	如果你想贷一笔贷款——不管你是一家科罗拉多州矿业公司还是一位纽约的希腊鞋匠——你首先必须抵押你的注册产权作为某种形式的担保。


As I have shown elsewhere, the poor of the world are in possession of some $18 trillion of undocumented assets in real estate alone.	我在其他文章中指出，世界上的穷人光是未注册不动产就高达18万亿美元左右。


But those assets will never attain their full value if they are not documented.	但如果这些资产得不到注册，就永远无法实现全部价值。


As it stands, they cannot be used to raise capital.	目前，它们不能用于筹集资本。


Nor can they be joined with other assets to create more complex and valuable holdings.	它们也不能与其他资产相结合，形成更加复杂和有价值的资产。


The lack of property rights also plays an important role in two areas of concern for both the pope and many US leaders: the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and the protection of the environment.	产权的缺位在教皇和许多美国领导人所担心的两大问题中也起着重要作用：中东和北非动乱和环境保护。


The Arab Spring, it should be recalled, began after a Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire as a protest against the arbitrary expropriation of his undocumented assets.	不应忘记，阿拉伯之春始于一位突尼斯街头小贩自焚抗议自己的未注册资产被野蛮没收。


And much of the anger that drove people to the streets, led countries to the point of collapse, and drove millions from their homes was motivated by a desire for clear rights, including those protecting property.	而让人民涌向街头，让国家走向崩溃，让数百万人走出家园的愤怒背后正是对明晰的权利的渴望，包括保护财产的权利。


Similarly, property rights are critical to environmental protection.	类似地，产权对于环境保护也是至关重要。


Without clear documentation, it is impossible for authorities to determine who is accountable for damaging natural resources or responsible for restoring local ecosystems.	没有明晰的注册档案，当局就无法确定向谁问责破坏自然资源或谁应该负责重建本地生态系统。


Updated records are also needed to adjust conservation strategies to the opportunities and threats that arise as industry expands into virgin territories.	我们也需要更新的记录调整保护战略，使之与因产业向“处女地”扩张而带来的机会和威胁相适应。


In the headwaters of the Amazon River, for example, most of the 1,496 local communities cannot fix precise boundaries – using universal coordinates and enforceable property law – to the land in their possession.	比如，在亚马孙河上游的1,496个本地社区中，大部分无法通过通用坐标和可事实的物权法明确界定他们所拥有的土地的边界。


As a result, individual residents struggle to protect their assets, adapt to environmental threats, or respond to the challenges and opportunities of expanding globalization.	结果，个体居民难以保护自己的资产、适应环境威胁或应对不断扩大的全球化带来的挑战和机会。


The fact that Francis is addressing the issue of documentation is important.	方济各就注册问题发声这一问题很重要。


It means the Vatican is not only asking why so few have so much, but also why so many have so little.	这意味着梵蒂冈不但在问为何如此少的人占有了如此多的东西，也在问为何如此多的人只能占有如此少的东西。


By extending his compassion to those who lack documentation, the pope has an opportunity to do very much for very many.	教皇如果能将他的同情心大而广之，关注缺少注册者，就有机会为很多人做一件很大的事。


Pope Francis in America	教皇方济各在美国


LONDON – It’s a dollar to a cent that Pope Francis’s visit to the United States in September will be one of the biggest news stories of 2015.	伦敦—毋庸置疑，9月教皇方济各访问美国将是2015年最重磅的新闻之一。


Take the sheer number of American Catholics, add the diplomatic skill of the Vatican’s purple-and-scarlet-clad officials, then throw in Francis’s powerful statements on a variety of subjects – often antagonizing America’s right wing in the process – and you have all the ingredients of an epic event.	美国有着巨大的天主教徒群体，梵蒂冈的教会官员也有着高超的外交技巧，方济各在很多问题上也是掷地有声——常常引起美国右翼的反对——所有这些构成了一个历史性事件的要素。


Start with the diplomats.	从外交开始。


Vatican officials catch their share of criticism, not least from Francis himself.	梵蒂冈官员受到了广泛批评，不仅仅来自方济各本身。


But their ranks include intelligent top-rank officials – led by the Pope’s chief adviser, Cardinal Pietro Parolin – who are experienced at working quietly for peace and social justice in some of the most perilous parts of the world.	但他们之中有顶级智囊——以教皇的首席顾问帕洛林红衣主教（Cardinal Pietro Parolin）为首——曾经不动声色地在世界最危险地区推动和平和社会正义。


When such smart diplomacy is put at the service of an appealing and influential Pope, not to mention the 1.2 billion Catholics worldwide, the result is an engine for doing good that is more formidable than anything the world has seen for some time.	如此明智的外交团队之上是一位极具魅力和影响力的教皇，而全世界天主教徒更是达到了12亿之众，因此，这就形成了一个世界多年未见的强大的扬善机器。


Anecdotes about Francis – from his propensity for making personal phone calls to those in distress to his decision to wash the feet of criminals, Muslims, and women (to the horror of some churchmen) – ring true.	关于方济各的奇闻异事听起来煞有介事——比如他常常把自己的电话给那些遭难的人们，以及他决定为罪犯、穆斯林和女性洗脚（这令一些教会人士大惊失色）。


Such acts of graceful nobility have contributed to his reputation as a kind, approachable, charismatic, and decisive leader – one who has proved to be highly appealing worldwide.	这些雅善之行让他获得了善良、平易近人、魅力超凡和坚决果断的名声——在全世界都大受欢迎。


My personal experience with Francis suggests that his reputation is well deserved.	我与方济各交往的个人经验表明他是一个名副其实的人。


Though, at age 71, I may be a little old to indulge in hero worship, I cannot remember a public figure to whom I have warmed more.	我已经71岁了，陷入英雄崇拜也许老了点，但我想不起来哪位公众人物能让我更暖心。


He embodies the message, delivered in the Gospel of St. Matthew’s account of the Sermon on the Mount: “Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for righteousness” (Matthew 5:6).	他是《马太福音·登山宝训》的写照：“饥渴慕义的人有福了”。


The moral authority that Francis exudes makes his interventions in controversial contemporary issues – such as his condemnation of the Armenian genocide, Islamic jihadi violence, Mafia criminality and corruption in Italy, and the deaths of African and Middle Eastern migrants in the Mediterranean – extremely powerful.	方济各所散发的道德权威让他能够非常有力地干预当代矛盾——如谴责亚美尼亚种族灭绝、伊斯兰圣战暴力、意大利黑手党犯罪和腐败、死于地中海的非洲和中东难民等。


Before and during his visit to the US, his views on three issues – none of which is without controversy in the US – will have a particularly strong impact.	在他访问美国之前和期间，他在三个在美国存在争议的问题上的观点将形成特别强大的影响。


First, Francis is helping to end the decades-long standoff between the US and Cuba.	首先，方济各在帮助结束美国和古巴之间几十年的僵局。


Not only did Cardinal Parolin, formerly the Vatican’s man in Venezuela, play a key role in the restoration of diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba; Francis plans to visit the island on his way to the US.	不但身为前委内瑞拉主教的帕洛林红衣主教在美国和古巴重建外交关系中起到了关键作用，方济各也计划在访问美国期间顺道访问古巴。


But the thaw in US-Cuba relations has not been welcomed by all US politicians.	但美国和古巴关系解冻并不能让所有美国政客满意。


Indeed, despite President Barack Obama’s apparent desire to end the pointless diplomatic freeze, some right-wing US politicians would, it seems, prefer a pariah to a potential partner off Florida’s coast.	事实上，尽管美国总统奥巴马显然渴望结束这一毫无意义的外交冻结，但一些右翼美国政客似乎宁可在佛罗里达州以南存在一个劣等国家而不是潜在伙伴。


The second key issue that Francis will address relates to the Israel-Palestine conflict – a fraught subject for the US, Israel’s most important ally.	方济各将解决的第二个关键问题是以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突——对于以色列最重要的盟友美国来说，这是个棘手的问题。


The Vatican has announced its intention to sign a treaty that includes recognition of a Palestinian state.	梵蒂冈宣布希望签署一份承认巴勒斯坦国的条约。


Given Francis’s long record of friendship with Jews, and his understanding of their religion and culture, no Israeli politician can possibly condemn him as an anti-Semite.	方济各与犹太人关系向来友好，并且十分理解 犹太人的宗教和文化，因此没有以色列政客可以指责他反犹。


Nonetheless, in parts of the American political establishment, Israel – specifically, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party – can do no wrong.	尽管如此，在美国政治制度的某些角落，以色列——具体而言，是以色列总理内塔尼亚胡及其利库德党（Likud Party）——永远不会错。


A US senator once told me, “We are all members of Likud here.”	一位美国参议员曾经对我说：“在这里，我们全都是利库德成员。 ”


The third issue – the most challenging for some American politicians, especially the most conservative among them – is Francis’s recent encyclical on environmental stewardship, climate change, and sustainable and fair economic development.	第三个问题——对于一些美国政客来说，这是挑战最大的问题，特别是最保守的保守派——是方济各关于环境保护、气候变化以及可持续的公平经济发展的最新通谕。


He clearly intends to put the full moral weight of his papacy behind the efforts to conclude a deal on climate change at the United Nations conference in Paris in December.	他显然准备拿出他作为教皇的全部道德分量推动12月的联合国巴黎会议形成气候变化协议。


Obama’s recent statement on carbon-dioxide emissions is clearly very much in line with the encyclical.	奥巴马关于二氧化碳排放的最新讲话显然与教皇通谕完全一致。


Francis will undoubtedly discuss the subject in his address to Congress, 30% of whose members – including House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican – are Catholic.	好意疑问，方济各将在他的美国国会演讲中讨论这一话题。 30%的美国国会议员——包括众议院议长、共和党员约翰·博纳（John Boehner）——是天主教徒。


Given that several of the leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination – including Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Bobby Jindal – also are Catholic, Francis’s strong stance on climate change may create a serious political dilemma for some.	几位领先的共和党总统候选提名人——包括杰布·布什（Jeb Bush）、马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）和波比·金达尔（Bobby Jindal）——也是天主教徒，因此，方济各在气候变化问题上的强硬立场可能给一些人带来严重的政治两难。


Already, some of the most conservative elements in American politics – backed by those, like the billionaire brothers David and Charles Koch, who benefit from inaction on climate change – are attempting to denounce Francis’s views.	目前，美国政治中的一些最保守元素——他们的后台是亿万富翁大卫和查尔斯·科奇（David and Charles Koch）兄弟，在气候变化问题上无动于衷对他们最有利——正在试图抹黑方济各的观点。


Whereas the Catholic Church once tried to suppress science and reason, most notably in its condemnation of Galileo, it is now defending them, while conservative US politicians deny the facts.	天主教会曾经试图镇压科学和理性，最著名的便是迫害伽利略，而如今，天主教会在捍卫科学和理性，否认事实的是美国保守派政客。


The pope is on the side of reason, as well as that of the angels.	教皇站在理性一边，所有的天使亦然。


In 1891, Pope Leo XIII produced Rerum Novarum, an encyclical on workers’ rights that fundamentally challenged the contemporary political discourse and approach to policymaking.	1891年，教皇利奥十三世发布了《新通谕》（Rerum Novarum），这个通谕讨论了工人权利，从根本上改变了当代政治进程和决策方法。


Francis hopes to have a similar impact today, helping to catalyze action on climate change.	如今，方济各也希望形成类似的影响，帮助推动治理气候变化的行动。


In this manner, he hopes, the world can achieve sustainable growth that improves the lot of the poor, while safeguarding the planet on which we depend.	他希望，这样能让世界实现可持续增长，改善穷苦人民的生活，同时也保护我们赖以生存的地球。


The 78-year-old Francis often talks of the limited time he has ahead of him.	78岁高龄的方济各常说，自己已时日无多。


Most Catholics pray that this is not the case.	大部分天主教徒祈祷他能长命百岁。


Given the positive impact that such a charismatic and forward-thinking pope can have on the world, we should all share that hope.	如此魅力超凡、高瞻远瞩的教皇能给全世界带来无数正能量，我们所有人都应该祝愿他长命百岁。


The Real Mission for Pope Francis	方济各教皇的真正任务


GLENDALE, CALIFORNIA – Catholicism, among the most tradition-bound religions, contains at its core a paradox that has become increasingly sharp.	格兰岱尔，加利福尼亚—作为最恪守传统的宗教之一，天主教的核心中包含着一个悖论。 这个悖论正在变得日益尖锐。


As Pope Francis begins his first overseas trip – to Brazil, the world’s most populous Catholic country – it is difficult, despite the inertia of the past, to tell where the church is headed.	随着方济各教皇开始了他的第一次海外之行——前往全球天主教徒人数最多的国家巴西——我们很难看清天主教的方向，尽管我们有过去的惯性可以参考。


The accession of Jorge Mario Bergoglio to the papacy adds to the puzzle.	贝尔格里奥（Jorge Mario Bergoglio）问鼎教皇宝座让这个谜团更加扑朔迷离了。


The chief Jesuit confessor at the papal court used to be called “the black pope,” owing to his simple black cassock (if not his sinister intent).	这位教廷首席耶稣会神父曾被成为“黑教皇”，因为他的教袍颜色纯黑（如果不是他别有用心的话）。


Now, for the first time, a Jesuit has become pope – and has compounded the novelty by assuming the very un-Jesuit name of Francis.	如今，耶稣会士第一次成为教皇，而且还用了一个相当不“耶稣会”的名字——方济各，这进一步增加了离奇性。


As curious as such gestures are in an institution that thrives on imagery, they are symbolic frills.	正如这些动作在一个以意象而繁荣昌盛的机构颇可古怪，它们属于象征性的虚饰。


We already have plenty of pictures of Francis kissing babies; what he faces now – in Brazil and around the world – are strategic matters of genuine substance.	我们已经看腻了方济各亲吻婴孩的照片； 如今他在巴西和全世界所面对的是实实在在的战略问题。


One such challenge, the Vatican Bank, is equivalent to cleaning up the Augean stables.	一项此类挑战——梵蒂冈银行——不下于奥吉厄斯的牛棚（Augean stables）。


It is enough to mention the words “Vatican” and “bank” in the same sentence to start a cascade of jokes about comic-opera ineptness and skullduggery.	在同一个句子里出现“梵蒂冈”和“银行”这两个词，那定是一个关于无能和欺诈的笑话的开头。


In order to find a remedy, Francis has appointed a special papal financial commission.	为了找到解决之道，方济各任命了一个特别教廷金融委员会。


But the bank known as the Institute for Works of Religion, founded in 1942, does not have deep roots in Catholicism.	但梵蒂冈银行又称为宗教工作研究所（Institute for Works of Religion），它成立于1942年，并无多深的天主教根基。


Though notoriously secretive, the operation is far removed from the Church’s more sensitive, doctrinal core.	尽管它以神秘臭名昭著，但其经营与教会更敏感、更教条的核心保持着相当远的距离。


Besides, the commission’s members have impeccable loyalist credentials, which is also true of the cardinals appointed by Francis to look into broader issues of reform.	除此之外，委员会成员都是绝无污点的忠诚亲信，方济各所任命的调研更宽范围改革事宜的红衣主教亦然。


At the same time, Francis has launched a series of initiatives aimed at pleasing just about everyone.	与此同时，方济各采取了一系列行动，旨在让所有人都满意。


He has expedited the canonization process for John XXIII, who inaugurated Vatican II almost a half-century ago, and John Paul II, the autocratic Pole who reined in many of Vatican II’s liberating impulses.	他加快了约翰二十三世和保罗二世的追圣过程，前者开启了近半个世纪前的第二次梵蒂冈大公会议（Vatican II），后者是一位独裁教皇，压抑了第二次梵蒂冈大公会议的自由化冲动。


He has also announced plenary indulgences – time off from “the pains of purgatory” – for those who follow his visit to the Catholic youth festival in Rio de Janeiro on the Internet.	他还宣布了大赦——免于“炼狱的痛苦”——对象是在互联网上跟随他访问里约热内卢天主教青年节的教众。


Such measures are difficult to get worked up about – both for Catholics who do not take them seriously and for “the simple faithful.”	这些措施难以激发生气——不管是对此不屑一顾的天主教徒，还是“简单的忠实信徒”。


They have feel-good value, but little else.	他们有好感（feel-good）价值，除此之外别无他物。


The heart of the matter is that Francis’s actions have been in line with the “revolution from above” style of reform associated with Vatican II.	问题的核心在于方济各的行动与第二次梵蒂冈大公会议的“自上而下的革命”风格一致。


In particular, none of the changes promoted by Francis envision a reduction in papal power.	特别是，方济各推出的变化都不会削弱教皇的权力。


The “primacy of the papacy” – a term Catholic theologians use when talking with their Protestant counterparts – remains sacrosanct.	“教皇��高无上”——天主教神学家在谈及新教神学家时经常用这个词——仍然是神圣不可侵犯的。


The larger lesson is that this monarchical model of Catholicism, together with the hierarchy that attends it, has remained pretty much the same since the Counter-Reformation.	更大的教训是天主教君主模式与附着于其上的层级制自从反宗教改革运动（Counter Reformation）以来一直没有变化。


For example, when priests leave “holy orders,” they are “reduced to the lay state” – a bit of condescending terminology that says a lot about the Church’s archaic mindset.	比如，当牧师离开“圣职”时，他们便“退回世俗状态”——有居高临下之嫌的专用词，天主教的顽固不化可见一斑。


This is not a new situation.	这并非新状况。


What is new are the circumstances under which it is unfolding.	新状况是它所开展的环境。


Catholicism in its heyday combined a fairly decentralized administration, under the sway of stand-alone bishops, with a uniform set of beliefs.	天主教在鼎盛时期集合了相当分散的管理（由单枪匹马的主教支配）和整齐划一的信仰。


One reason why it used to take roughly 13 years for a Jesuit to reach ordination was the long indoctrination in orthodoxy required for priests who, unlike “regular clergy” (whose training lasted half that time), would be mobile and beyond the direct control of bishops.	耶稣会士往往要经过13年左右才能获得圣职，原因之一是正统的长期教化需要牧师，而牧师与“寺院教士”（regular clergy，训练期只有前者的一半）不同，他们是流动的，不受主教的直接控制。


This situation is now close to being reversed.	这一状况目前已几近逆转。


Church administration has become increasingly subject to uniform civil codes.	教会管理变得越来越受统一的民法的约束。


At the same time, since Vatican II – and in tandem with the decline of close-knit ethnic enclaves – churchgoers no longer feel obliged to hew to the letter of canon law.	与此同时，自第二次梵蒂冈大公会议以来——与此同时，团结一致的同袍之志也在衰落——礼拜者不再感到有义务遵守教会法。


“Relativism,” “cafeteria Catholicism,” and the like are ubiquitous.	“相对主义”、“自助式天主教”和类似的东西无处不在。


Papal authority stands on shaky ground, especially in the comparatively secular West.	教皇权威岌岌可危，特别在相对世俗的西方。


Francis can attract attention by opining about social justice outside the church, but it is difficult for any pope to influence the habits and theological views of Catholics themselves, who think and act as they please.	方济各可以通过发表关于教会之外的社会公正的意见吸引注意力，但教皇要影响天主教徒本身的习惯和神学观念已经十分困难，后者现在按照自己的意思思想和行动。


He can scold – a tack that Francis has so far tried to avoid – but he cannot convince.	他可以斥责——到目前为止，方济各一直在试图避免采取这一招——但他无法说服。


If the Church’s first dilemma concerns the basis and effectiveness of papal authority, the second concerns sexuality.	如果说教会的第一个困境与教皇权威有效性的基础有关的话，那么第二个困境在于性。


The two are linked.	两者之间互相关联。


Francis shies away from the retrograde rhetoric that his predecessors used in raising alarms about the role of women, and he has not gone out of his way to follow up on the Vatican’s “visitation” (read “Inquisition”) of uppity American nuns.	方济各的前任用倒退的论调警告女性的作用，方济各对此敬而远之； 并且他也没有追随梵蒂冈对傲慢的美国修女的“访问”（实际上是“宗教裁判”）。


But he has kept that last episode on the books, and he continues to wax traditional about homosexuality.	但对于后者，他将之记于书中，并且在同性恋问题上相当传统。


Catholicism – or, more accurately, the celibate male mythos at the heart of the institutional church – rests on centuries of sexism.	天主教义——或者更准确地说，是作为制度化教会的核心的独身男子神学观——的大男子主义是数百年的老传统。


An antifeminist culture pervades the organization.	反女权文化弥漫于天主教。


Thoughtful theologians can distinguish among psycho-sexual issues; in practice, however, fear of a slippery slope to calamity prevails.	有思想的神学家可以区分性心理问题； 但是，在实践中，对滑向灾难的担心占了上风。


Pull one thread – the celibacy requirement for priests, for example – and the whole edifice comes crashing down.	只要牵一发——比如牧师的独身要求——就能动全身。


Consider what has happened to liberalizing Protestant denominations, which, for all their good intentions, have lost adherents.	解放新教就是一例，他们出发点良好，但失去了信徒。


One could argue that concessions on this front would simply acknowledge attitudinal and behavioral reality and allow the church to move on.	你可以说，在这方面的让步可以承认态度和行为的现实，让教会有所进步。


One could also argue that the consequences of reform would not be as organizationally disastrous as feared – in the same way that cleaning up backwaters like the Vatican Bank would restore credibility to the Church’s spiritual message.	你也可以说，改革的后果将不会像担心的那样是一场有组织的灾难——如同清理梵蒂冈银行这样的坏水能重建基督教精神的信誉。


But this is a conversation that Francis has yet to initiate, and that the people around him show little sign of understanding.	但方济各并未作此言论，他周围的人也没有显示出理解这一点的信号。


Poppy Power	罂粟大国


This month, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on Afghanistan that could pave the way for a new and more open-minded approach to counter-narcotics strategies worldwide.	本月，欧洲议会通过了一项有关阿富汗的决议。 该决议可能会为全球反毒品战略开辟一条新的、而且更为开放的途径。


In fact, the resolution calls on the participants at a conference of donors, to take place in London at the end of January, “to take into consideration the proposal of licensed production of opium for medical purposes, as already granted to a number of countries.”	事实上，该决议呼吁将于一月底在伦敦举行的捐助方会议与会方“考虑为医学目的而发放鸦片生产许可的建议，而某些国家业已获得此项许可”。


This proposal was originally made by the Senlis Council, an independent organization based in Paris, during a workshop in Kabul last September.	这一建议最初在去年九月份由一个设在巴黎的独立组织桑利斯委员会在喀布尔举行的一个研讨会上提出。


The text introduced by the European Liberal Democrats, with the support of virtually all political groups in the European Parliament, is revolutionary, not only because it goes against conventional thinking, but also because it raises the issue above the stagnant reality of the “war on drugs.”	欧洲自由民主党人士提出该文本，获得了欧洲议会内几乎所有的政治团体的支持。 这一文本是革命性的，不仅是因为它与常理背道而驰， 而且是因为它将反毒品问题提升到了“反毒品战争”停滞不前的现实之上。


In Afghanistan, that so-called war has essentially been based on eradication campaigns and alternative livelihood projects, which have achieved only scant results.	在阿富汗，那一所谓的战争基本上建立在清除战役以及替换型生计项目之上，成效微弱。


The European Parliament’s new stance may, I hope, mark the beginning of a radical policy shift by all actors involved in rebuilding Afghanistan.	我希望，欧洲议会的新立场标志着所有有关重建阿富汗各方的激进政策转向的开端。


According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, despite concerted efforts at eradication and crop substitution, Afghanistan produced 87% of the world’s opium in 2005 – roughly 4.1 tons – generating $2.7 billion of illegal revenue, which amounts to roughly 52% of the country’s GDP.	根据联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室的统计，尽管各方协力消除鸦片以及种植替代作物，阿富汗在2005年生产了全世界87％的鸦片，大约4. 1吨，产生27亿美元非法收入，约占该国国民生产总值的52％。


The 2005 Afghanistan Opium Survey, released last November, estimates that the total value of this opium, once turned into heroin and distributed around the world, could reach more than $40 billion.	于去年十一月发表的2005年度阿富汗鸦片调查报告估计，这些鸦片一旦制成海洛因并销往世界各地，其总价值可以超过400亿美元。


Moreover, in recent years, factories and laboratories for processing opium into heroin have been sprouting in Afghanistan, producing 420 tons of heroin last year alone.	而且，近年来，将鸦片加工为海洛因的工厂和实验室在阿富汗不断涌现，仅去年就制造了420吨海洛因。


The increase in domestic heroin production has provided a massive boost to the local retail market, giving rise to concerns about HIV/AIDS spreading in a country with poor infrastructure and nonexistent health services.	国内海洛因产量增加极大地促进了当地零售市场。 由于该国基础设施破烂不堪，医疗无处可寻，因此人们担忧艾滋病在该国蔓延。


In addition, the itineraries used by the export convoys are no longer limited to the infamous “golden route” through Pakistan and Iran, but have multiplied, employing exit points in former Soviet Republics such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.	除此之外，出口车队使用的路线也不再局限于途径巴基斯坦和伊朗、臭名昭著的“黄金通道”，而是采用前苏联共和国如塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦以及土库曼斯坦等出口点。


This is helping to promote further instability in already volatile political contexts.	这就为该地区早已动荡不安的政局增添了进一步的不稳定因素。


International counter-narcotics policy is currently driven by pressure for rapid and visible results.	当前的国际反毒品政策受到立竿见影的压力驱动。


But eradication and alternative livelihood projects mainly affect the lowest end of the value-added chain, the farmers, with no real impact on those higher up, such as large landowners and local traffickers, not to mention the extremely powerful drug lords and the international cartels and mafias.	但是，清除以及替代型生计项目影响的主要是增值链条中的最底端，也就是农民。 对位于高端的人，例如大地主和当地毒贩并无实际影响，更不用说呼风唤雨的大毒枭以及国际卡特尔和黑社会。


Most landless farmers find it difficult to switch to different crops, being caught up as they are in the illegal opium-denominated market, which forces them to live at the mercy of the drug traffickers, who provide them with access to credit and market outlets.	毒贩向大多数无地的农民提供信贷和市场销路。 农民们处于由鸦片统揽一切的非法市场，迫使他们靠毒贩的怜悯苟活，因此转到不同的作物困难重重。


The result of this was laid out in a report by the European Union’s Election Observation Mission that I presented in Kabul last December: Afghanistan risks becoming a “rentier” state with easy access to resources that lubricate corruption throughout its entire political system, finance illegal armed groups, and fuel regional destabilization.	去年十二月我在喀布尔提出的欧盟选举观察团报告列举了这一现象所造成的结果。 那就是：阿富汗存在成为“食利者”国家的风险，助长侵袭到整个政治制度的腐败、为非法武装团体提供资金并且增加地区不稳定因素的资源该国都一应俱全。


Illicit Afghan networks, replicating well-known methods that organized crime has applied successfully for decades in other parts of the world, are mobile and resourceful, and can plug into a range of legal economic activities to sustain themselves.	非法阿富汗网络重复着组织犯罪团伙几十年来在世界各地屡试不爽的手法，它们非常灵活机动而又左右逢源，可以连接到众多合法的经济活动中连绵不断。


This might lead Afghanistan into a situation of no return: becoming a narco-state that drifts away from any form of rule of law and disengages itself from the fragile social contract with its own citizens that it has started to establish.	这可能会将阿富汗引入不归之路，也就是成为一个游离于法制之外、脱离刚刚开始建立的、其与自身国民之间的脆弱的社会契约的昏迷国家。


As New York University’s Barnett Rubin, an expert on Afghan society, has put it: “Afghanistan cannot be stabilized while the most dynamic sector of its economy is illegal, nor if more than half of its economy is destroyed.”	正如纽约大学教授、阿富汗问题专家巴内特·鲁宾所言：“如果阿富汗最具有活力的经济部门是非法的话，它就不可能得到稳定。 如果其超过一半的经济被毁，也不可能做到稳定。


So what should be done?	那么，又当如何呢？


Because of the serious threat that the illegal drug economy poses to stability and democracy in Afghanistan, we must start thinking in terms of regulated poppy growing for medical purposes, in particular for painkillers, with the active participation of donor countries and the UN itself.	由于非法毒品经济在阿富汗对稳定和民主构成严重的威胁，我们必须开始考虑为医学目的、特别是止痛药而调节罂粟种植，捐助国以及联合国自身都应当积极参与。


Indeed, the UN estimates that just six countries prescribe 78% of the total legal production of opiates, implying shortages of opium-based painkillers in many of the UN’s 185 other member states.	实际上，联合国估计，仅仅有六个国家规定了合法鸦片生产总量的78％。 这意味着联合国其他185个成员国中的许多国家基于鸦片的止痛剂存在短缺。


Hence the potential legal demand is huge.	因此，潜在的合法需求是巨大的。


Moreover, the UN also estimates that there are 45 million people living with HIV/AIDS in countries where health systems are either absent or very poor, and that over the next 20 years there will be some 10 million new cases of cancer in the developing world.	而且，联合国还估计，全球有4500万艾滋病患者生活在要么没有医疗体系要么体系极差的国家，在未来20年中，发展中国家大约新增1000万癌症患者。


These estimates, together with poor countries’ additional needs when natural catastrophes strike, imply that the potential legal demand for medicinal opiates is even higher.	这些估计，加上自然灾害来袭时穷国额外的需求都表明医用鸦片潜在的合法需求甚至更为巨大。


An increase in production of “medical” opium would address its lack of availability worldwide.	提高“医用”鸦片产量将会解决世界范围内的供应不足问题。


It would also provide Afghan peasants, who have been growing poppy despite forced eradication of the plant and incentives to change crops, with an option that is regulated by law and that, in time, could have an impact on the heroin trade.	阿富汗的农民素来置强迫清除鸦片以及改换作物的激励于不顾而种植罂粟。 如此还会为他们提供一种受到法律调整的选择，而且最终会对海洛因交易产生影响。


Governments, international organizations and individuals that participate in the London conference must not dismiss the call made by the European Parliament, for it offers a far more workable strategy to promote Afghanistan’s future than the current counter-narcotics policies permit.	参加伦敦会议的各国政府、国际组织以及个人都不应回绝欧洲议会发出的呼吁，因为这一呼吁提供了一个比当前反毒品政策所可以达到的远远更为可操作的战略来促进阿富汗的未来。


The Abandonment of Progress	放弃进步


PARIS – Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan are remembered for the laissez-faire revolution they launched in the early 1980s.	巴黎——历史铭记玛格丽特·撒切尔和罗纳德·里根是因为他们在二十世纪八十年代发动了一场自由放任主义革命。


They campaigned and won on the promise that free-market capitalism would unleash growth and boost prosperity.	他们竞选获胜是因为承诺自由市场资本主义能够释放增长并且促进繁荣。


In 2016, Nigel Farage, the then-leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) who masterminded Brexit, and US President-elect Donald Trump campaigned and won on a very different basis: nostalgia.	2016年，时任英国独立党（UKIP）领导人——策划英国退欧的奈杰尔·法拉奇和美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普竞选获胜的基础截然不同：怀旧。


Tellingly, their promises were to “take back control” and “make America great again” – in other words, to turn back the clock.	说实话，他们的承诺是“收回控制权”和“让美国再次伟大”——换句话讲，就是拨回历史的时钟。


As Columbia University’s Mark Lilla has observed, the United Kingdom and the US are not alone in experiencing a reactionary revival.	据哥伦比亚大学的马克·利拉观察，不仅是英国和美国正在经历反动思潮的复兴。


In many advanced and emerging countries, the past suddenly seems to have much more appeal than the future.	在许多发达和新兴国家，过去似乎突然之间变得比未来更吸引人。


In France, Marine Le Pen, the nationalist right’s candidate in the upcoming presidential election, explicitly appeals to the era when the French government controlled the borders, protected industry, and managed the currency.	在法国即将到来的总统大选中，民族主义右翼候选人马琳·勒庞公然怀念的时代是由法国政府保护工业、管理货币和控制边境。


Such solutions worked in the 1960s, the National Front leader claims, so implementing them now would bring back prosperity.	国民阵线领导人称这样的方案在二十世纪六十年代曾经有效，因此执行它们或将重现繁荣。


Obviously, such appeals have struck a chord with electorates throughout the West.	显而易见，这样的呼吁引起了整个西方世界选民的共鸣。


The main factor underlying this shift in public attitudes is that many citizens have lost faith in progress.	导致公众态度转变的主要因素是许多民众已经对进步失去了信心。


They no longer believe that the future will bring them material improvement and that their children will have a better life than their own.	他们不再相信未来会带来物质上的改善，也不相信他们的子女会拥有更好的生活。


They look backward because they are afraid to look ahead.	他们执着于过去，是因为他们对未来充满担心。


Progress has lost its shine for several reasons.	有几个原因导致进步失去了原有的光环。


The first is a decade of dismal economic performance: for anyone below the age of 30, especially in Europe, the new normal is recession and stagnation.	首先是长达十年的糟糕经济表现：对三十岁以下的所有人而言，尤其是欧洲人，新常态是停滞和经济衰退。


The toll taken by the financial crisis has been heavy.	金融危机造成了巨大的损失。


Furthermore, the pace of productivity gains in the advanced countries (and to a large extent in emerging countries) remains disappointingly low.	不仅如此，发达国家（而且在很大程度上新兴国家也不例外）的生产率增速仍然低得令人失望。


As a result, there is very little in the way of income gains to distribute – and even less in aging societies where fewer people are at work and those out of work live longer. This grim reality may not last (not all economists agree that it will); but citizens can be forgiven for taking reality at face value.	结果导致收入增量的分配方式少之又少——社会人口不断老龄化、工作人口越来越少、不工作人口寿命越来越长进一步恶化了这种局面。


The second reason progress has lost credibility is that the digital revolution risks undermining the middle class that formed the backbone of the post-war societies of the world’s advanced economies.	人们对进步丧失信心的第二个原因是数字革命可能损害构成战后世界发达经济体社会支柱的中产阶级。


As long as technological progress was destroying unskilled jobs, the straightforward policy response was education.	只要技术进步继续破坏非技术性工作，那么最直接的应对之策就是教育。


Robotization and artificial intelligence are destroying medium-skilled jobs, leading to a polarized labor market, with jobs created at the two ends of the wage distribution.	机器人化和人工智能正在摧毁中等技术岗位，导致劳动力市场两极分化，在工资分布的两端创造就业机会。


For those whose skills have lost value and whose jobs are threatened by automation, this hardly counts as “progress.”	对那些技能已经失去价值并且工作受到自动化威胁的人而言，这很难被视为“进步”的表现。


A third, related, reason is the massively skewed distribution of national income gains that prevails in many countries.	第三个相关原因是许多国家普遍存在国民收入增长分配的大规模倾斜。


Social progress rested on the promise that the benefits of technological and economic advancement would be shared.	承诺技术和经济进步利益共享是社会进步赖以存在的基石。


But recent path-breaking research by Raj Chetty and his colleagues shows that whereas 90% of US adults born in the early 1940s earned more than their parents, this proportion has steadily declined ever since, to 50% for those born in the mid-1980s.	但拉兹·切提及其同事的最近一项突破性研究表明尽管二十世纪四十年代早期出生的美国成年人90%收入均高于其父母，但这一比例从那以后就一直呈稳定下降趋势，到二十世纪八十年代中期下降到50%。


Only one-quarter of this decline is due to slower economic growth; the remainder is attributable to an increasingly unequal distribution of income.	只有1/4的上述降幅是因为经济增长放缓； 其余的则须归因于越来越不平等的收入分配。


When inequality reaches such proportions, it erodes the very basis of the social contract.	当不平等达到如此程度时，社会契约的基础就会遭到破坏。


It is impossible to speak of overall progress when children have an even chance of being worse off than their parents.	如果孩子有一半的几率过得还不如父母，谈论整体进步根本就不可能。


Fourth, the new inequality has a politically salient spatial dimension.	第四，新的不平等在政治上有着突出的空间存在感。


Educated, professionally successful people increasingly marry and live close to one another, mostly in large, prosperous metropolitan areas.	受过教育、职业成功的人士大多生活在繁荣的大城市地区，他们越来越多的通婚并且彼此接近。


Those left out also marry and live close to one another, mostly in depressed areas or small towns.	那些被时代抛弃的人同样结婚并生活在一起，但大多是在萧条的地区或小城镇。


The result, reckon the Brookings Institution’s Mark Muro and Sifan Liu, is that US counties won by Trump account for just 36% of GDP, whereas won by Hillary Clinton account for 64%.	布鲁金斯学会的马克·姆洛和 Sifan Liu估算的结果是特朗普获胜的县仅占国内生产总值的36%，而希拉里·克林顿获胜的县则占到国内生产总值的64%。


Massive spatial inequality creates large communities of people with no future, where the prevailing aspiration can only be to turn back the clock.	巨大的空间不平等造就了大批没有未来的民众，他们普遍的希望只能是将时钟拨回到从前。


Faith in progress was a key provision of the political and social contract of the post-war decades.	对进步的信仰是战后数十年政治和社会契约的重要条款。


It was always a part of the left’s DNA; but the right embraced it as well.	它一直是左翼DNA的组成部分； 但右翼同样会利用这一点。


After what happened in 2016, support for a concept forged in the Enlightenment can no longer be taken for granted.	在2016年的一切发生后，对启蒙运动中形成的概念支持不能再继续被认为是理所当然。


For anyone who believes that progress should remain the compass guiding societies in the twenty-first century, the priority is to redefine it in today’s context and to spell out the corresponding policy agenda.	对相信进步应成为21世纪社会指南的任何人而言，重点任务是要在今天的环境下重新界定进步的含义并明确相应的政策议程。


Even leaving aside other important dimensions of the issue – such as fear of globalization, growing ethical doubts about contemporary technologies, and concerns about the environmental consequences of growth – redefining progress is a challenge of daunting magnitude.	即使抛开这个问题的其他重要方面——比如对全球化的恐惧、对当代技术的伦理怀疑以及对经济发展环境后果的关注——重新定义发展的含义也是一项令人生畏的挑战。


This is partly because a sensible agenda must simultaneously address its macroeconomic, educational, distributional, and spatial dimensions.	部分原因是合理的议程安排必须同时解决宏观经济、教育、分配和空间问题。


It is also because yesterday’s solutions belong to the past: a social compact designed for an environment of high-growth, equalizing technological progress won’t help address the problems of a low-growth world of divisive technological innovation.	同时还因为昨天的解决方案只属于过去：为高增长、平等、技术进步环境所设计的社会契约解决不了技术创新分裂的低增长世界所面临的问题。


In short, social justice is not a matter only for fair-weather environments.	总而言之，社会正义不仅仅关乎公平的气候环境。


For several decades, growth has served as a substitute for sensible social cohesion policies.	几十年来，经济增长一直被当作合理社会凝聚政策的替代品。


What advanced societies need now are social compacts that are resilient to demographic shifts, technological disruptions, and economic shocks.	发达社会现在需要能适应人口变化、技术破坏和经济冲击的社会契约。


In 2008, US President Barack Obama campaigned on “hope” and “change we can believe in.”	2008年，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马提出了“希望”和“我们能够信任的变化”等竞选口号。


The substantive response to the reactionary revival must be to give content to this largely unfulfilled promise.	对反动复兴潮流的实质性反击必须是赋予这种基本未能得到兑现的承诺以全新的内涵。


The Geopolitics of Populism	民粹主义的地缘政治


SINGAPORE – The big question in Asian countries right now is what lesson to take from Donald Trump’s victory in the United States’ presidential election, and from the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum, in which British voters opted to leave the European Union.	新加坡—目前，亚洲国家面临的一个大问题是从特朗普赢得美国总统选举，以及英国退欧公投（英国选民选择退出欧盟）中汲取什么教训。


Unfortunately, the focus is not where it should be: geopolitical change.	不幸的是，注意力没有放在应该的地方：地缘政治变化。


Instead, for the most part, economic narratives have prevailed: globalization, while improving overall wellbeing, also dislocates workers and industries, and generates greater income disparity, creating the anxious electorates that backed Brexit and Trump.	相反，在大部分情况下，经济成为主要立论点：全球化尽管改善了总体福祉，但也冲击了工人和产业，并制造了更加剧烈的收入差距，产生了支持英国退欧和特朗普的焦虑选民。


An alternative narrative asserts that technological advances, more than globalization, have exacerbated economic inequalities, setting the stage for political disruptions in developed countries.	另一个立论点主张技术进步比全球化更加加剧了经济不平等性，为发达国家的政治扰动创造了条件。


In either case, policymakers in emerging countries have identified inequality as a major problem, and rallied around efforts to improve social mobility, lest globalization and new technologies displace their middle and working classes, and clear a path for their own versions of Trump and Brexit.	无论如何，新兴国家的决策者都将不平等性视为主要问题之一，着力点围绕改善社会流动性，唯恐全球化和新技术取代中产和工作阶级并未本国特朗普和英国退欧铺平道路。