Today, the leading edge of that dénouement is the impending decision on the next round of Greek aid, which threatens to break the mold on the scale of official debt forgiveness, defy the IMF’s presumed insulation from default, and fundamentally alter the eurozone’s legal framework.	时至今日，最终结局的前奏就是下一轮希腊援助决策的下达，这有可能打破官方债务减免规模的原有模式，违抗国际货币基金组织定下的违约隔离措施，并从根本上改变欧元区的法律框架。


The conclusion that Greece needed official loans to repay its private creditors ensured that Greek debt remained large, compelling eurozone leaders to demand economically debilitating fiscal austerity.	认为希腊需要官方贷款以补偿其私人债权人的结论导致该国债务依然庞大，迫使欧元区领导人要求其实施导致经济衰弱的财政紧缩。


Last year, it became clear that Greece could not repay its official creditors on the agreed terms.	去年，很显然希腊无法按照原定条款来偿还官方债务。


But the European debt-forgiveness plan, though painstakingly crafted, was bogus.	但欧洲的债务减免计划尽管煞费苦心，却只是一纸空文。


Continued reduction of interest rates and extension of repayment maturities have served only to prolong Greece’s struggles.	不断降低利率及延长还款期限也只是在延长希腊的垂死挣扎而已。


Greece has so far repaid almost none of the €282 billion ($372 billion) in loans that it has received since 2010.	自2010年以来，希腊共收到2820亿欧元（折合3720亿美元）贷款，但到目前为止几乎没有偿还过。


And matters may be even worse. Some analysts argue that, given guarantees of debt incurred by public corporations, the Greek government’s obligations are even higher.	而且情况可能比这更糟，一些分析师认为，如果把公营机构的债务担保计算在内的话，希腊政府的负债总额将会更高。


To escape from this morass, Greece needs a massive debt write-down.	如果想要摆脱这种困境的话，希腊需要减免很大一笔债务。


But there is a twist.	但这中间却存在着一个死结。


Virtually all of the debt repayments due in the next few years are to the IMF, whose implicit status as “senior” creditor ensures that it is repaid first.	未来几年基本上所有需要偿还的债务都来自国际货币基金组织，而其包含的状态为“高级”，确保它是第一偿还债权人。


Because Greece is rapidly running out of cash, it will first have to borrow more from either its European neighbors or the IMF itself.	由于希腊得现金很快会耗尽，它将不得不首先从欧洲邻国或者国际货币基金组织借更多的钱。


If the IMF were to ease the terms on its Greek loans, it would likely face fierce protests from its less wealthy debtors and risk compromising its status as senior creditor – an outcome that even the Fund’s largely quiescent Board of Governors is unlikely to accept.	如果国际货币基金组织放宽希腊的贷款条款，可能会面临其他不富裕贷款者的激烈抗议，以及损害其作为高级债权人的地位——这种结果就连经常保持沉默的基金理事会也不愿接受。


The Fund, having swooped in to pluck Greece from the abyss, is ready to step back from the brink.	国际货币基金组织曾经一马当先想要把希腊从深渊中拉出来，现在又变得踌躇不前了。


For that reason, European governments will probably lend new money, despite knowing that they will not be repaid.	有鉴于此，尽管知道这些债务将无法收回，但欧洲各国政府依然可能会继续拿出钱来。


For the creditor countries’ leaders, a write-down would mean breaking the promise that their taxpayers would not foot the bill – a pledge that also formed the legal basis for supporting Greece.	对于债权国领导人，撇减债务将意味着打破本国纳税人不会埋单的承诺，同时也形成了支持希腊的法律依据。


The European Court of Justice ruled that loans to protect financial stability would not violate the Lisbon Treaty’s “no bailout” clause, provided that their terms were “reasonable.”	欧洲法院裁定，保护金融稳定性的贷款不会违反《里斯本条约》的“不救助”条款，其条款是合理的。


But how reasonable is it if Greece does not have to fulfill its repayment obligations?	但如果希腊不履行其还款责任，那又是合理的吗？


Despite domestic opposition, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to commit to keeping Greece in the eurozone, because the risk that a Greek exit would precipitate the monetary union’s disintegration was deemed too great.	尽管国内反对，德���总理安吉拉默克尔还是决定支持希腊继续留在欧元区，因为希腊的退出会导致人们认为货币联盟存在极大解体风险。


But this logic failed to account for the political ramifications, which threaten to undermine European unity further.	但这个逻辑并没有考虑其政治后果，因为这可能进一步削弱欧洲的团结。


German voters – who will head to the polls later this month – are unmistakably anxious.	德国选民——那些将在本月末进行投票的人——无疑是焦虑的。


While it may be too late to avoid forgiving Greece’s existing debt, Germany’s next government will not have a mandate to provide more loans.	虽然防止减免希腊现有债务已经为时太晚，但德国新政府将不会获得提供更多贷款的授权。


As a result, important projects like establishing a European banking union, which would require a fiscal backstop, are likely to be delayed or even endangered.	结果就是，类似建立欧洲银行联盟的这样需要财政支持的重要项目可能会被推迟甚至取消。


The practice of presenting technocratic faits accomplis to national parliaments will only breed deeper resentments.	而向各国议会指出这种技术官僚式的既成事实只会导致更深的不满。


To be sure, there is always the possibility that Greece’s increasingly dire situation will finally catalyze the creation of a democratically legitimate pan-European bailout fund that provides automatic and unconditional relief to struggling countries.	可以肯定的是，希腊日益严峻的形势，为最终催生一个民主合法的泛欧洲救助基金向陷入困境的国家提供自动和无条件援助创造了可能性。


The European Union would thus be transformed into a true federation, the United States of Europe.	欧盟将转变成一个真正的联盟，成为欧洲合众国。


That would be a triumph for the European project.	这将是欧洲计划的胜利。


Given the improbability of such an outcome, Europeans must brace themselves for another bout of political and legal turmoil.	鉴于这种结果的可能性不大，欧洲人必须准备面对另一轮政治和法律动荡。


The Europe that emerges from it could look, for better or worse, very different from the Europe of today.	欧洲或许会变得更好或更坏，但将与今天的欧洲截然不同。


The Online Fight Against ISIS	网络打击伊斯兰国


WASHINGTON, DC – Even as the United States and its allies carry out aerial bombardments in Iraq and Syria, their target, the Islamic State (ISIS), may be preparing to retaliate on another front.	华盛顿——即使在美国及其盟国在伊拉克和叙利亚展开空中轰炸的同时，他们的目标伊斯兰国可能正在准备在另一条战线上展开报复行动。


By taking the battle into cyberspace, ISIS would gain many of the advantages of asymmetric warfare – unless the US organizes itself to counter the group’s efforts.	通过将战争拓展到网络空间，伊斯兰国将取得非对称战争的众多优势——除非美国组织起来对抗该组织的工作。


The entry barriers to cyber warfare are remarkably low, even for non-state actors.	即便对于非国家参与者而言，网络战争的进入壁垒也低得令人不可思议。


Even if ISIS does not currently have the capability to carry out cyber-attacks, it is unlikely to find it difficult to recruit followers with the requisite expertise; in the past, other terrorist and insurgent organizations, including Al Qaeda, have done just that.	即使伊斯兰国目前还没有能力实施网络攻击，招募具备必要专业知识的追随者对其而言也并非难事； 过去，其他恐怖和叛乱组织，包括基地组织在内，都成功完成了招募。


There are bound to be cyber mercenaries, sympathizers, and freelancers available if the price is right.	只要出价合适，肯定不难找到网络雇佣军、同情者和自由职业人士。


Experts have cautioned that ISIS could strike unprotected infrastructure or private residences.	专家警告伊斯兰国可能打击未受保护的私人住宅和基础设施。


Hundreds of thousands of industrial and commercial control systems, including the rapidly growing Internet of Things, are leaving ever-wider swaths of everyday life vulnerable to disruption.	成千上万的工业和商业控制系统，包括快速成长的物联网在内，正让越来越多的日常生活领域更容易遭受攻击。


And far more troubling is the warning by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit devoted to strengthening global security, that many civilian and military nuclear facilities are inadequately protected against cyber-attacks.	核威胁倡议组织提出的警告更加令人不安，这是一家致力于加强全球安全警示的非营利性机构，他们认为许多民用和军用核设施无法有效阻止网络攻击。


Late last year, computer and network security researchers revealed, to little surprise or fanfare, that ISIS was active on the so-called dark web.	去年年底，计算机和网络研究人员透露伊斯兰国在所谓的黑暗网络上表现得异常活跃，这条消息既不令人吃惊也没有夸大其词。


These websites, which are invisible to search engines and accessible only through specialized software, are often havens for purveyors of child pornography, drugs, or other illicit products, including hacking services and malicious software.	搜索引擎找不到这些网站，它们只能通过专门的软件访问，而且往往是儿童色情、毒品或其他非法产品，包括黑客服务和恶意软件传播人员的庇护所。


This development was the first sign that ISIS was actively seeking to develop a cyber capability that it could deploy even if it loses its footing on the ground.	这一进展首先表明伊斯兰国正在建设某种即使其在地面战争中被击败也有可能继续部署的网络能力。


So far, terrorists have lagged behind their criminal counterparts in adopting virtual currencies like the peer-to-peer currency Bitcoin.	到目前为止，恐怖分子在利用比特币等点对点的虚拟货币方面还比不上同行的犯罪分子。


But this could change if Western countries are successful in countering ISIS’s current sources of funding, including oil smuggling and extortion.	但如果西方国家成功打击伊斯兰国目前的资金来源，包括石油走私和敲诈勒索，上述情况可能会出现变化。


Indeed, ISIS has allegedly already solicited Bitcoin donations.	事实上，据称伊斯兰国已经开始征集比特币捐款。


The group is also using the dark web to recruit and disseminate its propaganda to aspiring jihadists.	该组织还利用黑暗网络来招募和传播鼓动圣战者的宣传攻势。


For sympathetic audiences, an online push can sometimes be enough to spark violent action.	面对持同情态度的观众，有时一次在线鼓动足以引发暴力行为。


This is especially true for individuals who are already radicalized, such as Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik, the husband and wife who opened fire on a holiday party in San Bernardino, California, in December.	对于已经激进化的个人而言尤其如此，比如赛义德·法鲁克和塔什芬·马利克，即去年12月在加利福尼亚州圣贝纳迪诺一次假日聚会上对人群开火的夫妇。


Perhaps most troubling from an operational perspective is the possibility that ISIS could use the dark web to coordinate with operatives to plan and plot a major attack in Europe or the US.	也许从操作角度看最令人不安的莫过于伊斯兰国有可能利用黑暗网络在欧美协调执行人员制定并策划大规模袭击行动。


Terrorists are always seeking to stay one step ahead of law enforcement and intelligence services; so ISIS can be expected to seek software that encrypts a user’s IP address and routes Internet traffic through a series of anonymized servers.	恐怖分子一直追求领先执法和情报部门一步； 因此可以预料伊斯兰国将寻找加密用户IP地址的软件，并通过一系列匿名服务器来对网络流量进行路由。


To be sure, ISIS’s foray into cyberspace creates opportunities for Western law enforcement and intelligence agencies to conduct surveillance, if they can develop the capacity to do so.	可以肯定，伊斯兰国进军网络空间为西方执法和情报机构进行监视（如果他们具备上述能力）提供了机会。


Just as ISIS has proved far from omnipotent on the physical battlefield, it can also be defeated in cyberspace.	就像事实证明伊斯兰国在实体战场上远非无所不能一样，其在网络空间内同样能够被击败。


To fight effectively in this borderless domain, the US will have to work closely with its international partners.	要想在这个无国界领域中组织起有效的打击，美国将必须与国际伙伴展开密切的合作。


But there are steps that it can take on its own.	但美国也可以独立采取某些举措。


Recently, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter urged US Cyber Command – the arm of the military dedicated to cyberspace operations – to “intensify the fight” against ISIS.	近日，国防部长阿什顿·卡特敦促美国网络司令部——即致力于网络空间作战的军事部门——加强反对伊斯兰国的战斗。


But the US would be wise to consider expanding the fight by recruiting civilian volunteers.	但考虑扩大战斗招募平民志愿者对美国而言将是明智的举动。


When it comes to cyber-attacks, numbers matter.	在涉及网络攻击时，人数是关键因素。


Other countries, such as Iran, China, and North Korea, already boast large cyber armies, with tens of thousands of recruits who can monitor, track, counter, and mitigate threats to the country.	其他国家，比如伊朗、中国和朝鲜，已经组建了大型的网络部队，有数十万被招募者负责监控、追踪及缓解对国家造成的威胁。


In the US, the Michigan Cyber Civilian Corps has organized itself to respond to cyber-attacks.	在美国，密歇根网络平民团已经组织起来应对网络袭击事件的威胁。


Replicating this program – described as something between a “volunteer fire department and the national guard” – on a national level could bolster US capabilities.	在全国层面复制这项计划——有时被称为介于“志愿消防队和国民卫队”之间的力量——能够加强美国在这方面的能力。


The Department of Homeland Security has already considered creating a “cyber reserve” of computer experts, and a report by Booz Allen Hamilton, a technology and security firm, suggested similar efforts to provide the US with more cyber warriors in the event of an attack.	国土安全部已在思考建设计算机专家“网络储备”，并且博思艾伦汉密尔顿技术安全公司在一份报告中也建议开展招募更多网络战士以抵御网络袭击的工作。


To prevail against ISIS, the US and its cyber soldiers will have to be capable of reacting quickly, while being guided by an overarching strategy.	要想打赢对伊斯兰国的战争，美国及其网络士兵必须能在总体战略的指导下反应迅速。


Countering ISIS online will require a continuously adaptive response.	网络打击伊斯兰国需要连续采取适应性对策。


And it will require the manpower to make that possible.	此外还需要招募必要的人力来完成这项任务。


The Open Education Revolution	开放教育革命


As the founders of two of the world’s largest open-source media platforms – Wikipedia and Connexions – we have both been accused of being dreamers.	作为世界上最大的两个开放代码媒体平台维基百科以及Connexions的创始人，我们都曾经被人指责为异想天开。


Independently, we became infected with the idea of creating a Web platform that would enable anyone to contribute their knowledge to free and open learning resources.	我们各自着迷于建立一个让任何人都可以为自由和开放学习资源做出贡献的网络平台。


Jimmy started with his popularly generated encyclopedia.	吉米开创了由大众编写的百科全书。


Rich developed a platform for authors, teachers, and students to create, remix, and share courses and textbooks.	里查德则开发了一个为作家、教室以及学生设立、重新混合以及分享课程以及课本的平台。


Almost everybody dismissed these dreams.	几乎所有人都对于这些梦想不屑一顾。


Now, with the support of untold legions – from Nobel Laureates to junior high school kids from East Timor to East Los Angeles – Wikipedia and Connexions have spread around the globe and today are organic, growing information bases used by hundreds of millions of people.	现在，在来自天南海北的诺贝尔获奖者和高中学生等难以计数的人们的支持下，维基百科全书和Connexions以及遍布全球，有机地扩大了由数以亿计的人使用的信息基础。


We want to infect you with the dream that anyone can become part of a new movement with the potential to change the world of education.	我们也想要让你们也着迷于这一构想，也就是任何人都可以参与这一新的运动。 这一运动有可能改变整个教育世界。


This movement can redefine forever how knowledge is created and used.	这一运动能够从此以后重新定义知识产生和使用的方式。


Today, some community college students have to quit school because their textbooks cost more than their tuition; and today, some third graders have to share math texts because there aren’t enough to go around.	如今，某些社区学院的学生不得不辍学，因为他们的课本的价格超过学费； 而且，某些三年级的学生不得不共用课本，因为课本不足。


But imagine a world where textbooks and other learning materials are available to everyone for free over the Web and at low cost in print.	但是，让我们想像一下这样的一个世界，那就是，课本以及其他学习材料可以在网上免费提供给任何人，并且以低廉的价格打印出来。


Today, language barriers prevent many immigrant parents from helping their children with their homework because the texts are only in English.	如今，语言障碍让许多移民父母无法辅导自己孩子的家庭作业，因为课本都是英语。


But imagine a world where textbooks are adapted to many learning styles and translated into myriad languages.	但是想像一下这样的一个世界，那就是，把课本改编成多种学习风格并且翻译成多种语言。


Today, Pluto remains on the list of planets in science textbooks, and who knows how long it will take for it to be removed.	如今，科学课本还把冥王星列为一颗行星，谁知道还要多长时间才能够把它去除。


But imagine a world where textbooks are continually updated and corrected by a legion of contributors.	但是想像一下这样一个世界，那就是，众多贡献人士不断更新和纠正课本。


Such a world was just a dream a decade ago.	这样的世界在十年前还是一个梦想。


But now the puzzle pieces of the Open Education movement have come together, so that anyone, anywhere can write, assemble, customize, and publish their own open course or textbook.	但是现在开放教育运动已经整合起来，这样，任何地方的任何人都可以写作、收集、调整以及出版他们自己的开放课程或者课本。


Open licenses make the materials legal to use and remix.	开放许可让材料合法地使用和重新混合。


Technical innovations like XML and print-on-demand make delivering the output technically feasible and inexpensive.	像XML以及随点随印的技术创新使得产出变得在技术上可行而且廉价。


The new development and distribution models promoted by the Open Education movement represent a natural and inevitable evolution of the educational publishing industry.	由开放教育运动促发的新的开发和传播模式带来了教育出版产业的自然而然以及不可避免的变革。


It parallels the evolution of the software industry (towards Linux and other open-source software); the music industry (recall the band Radiohead’s recent “pay what you like” digital download); and scholarly publishing (the United States government recently mandated online public access to all research funded by the National Institutes of Health – $28.9 billion this year).	软件产业朝向Linux和其他开放代码软件，音乐产业中的Radiohead最近推出“随意付费”电子下载，而在学术出版界中，美国政府最近批准由国家健康研究所资助的所有研究向公众在线开放，这一金额今年达到289亿美元。 而这一运动则可以与这些相提并论。


The exciting thing about Open Education is that free access is just the beginning.	开放教育让人兴奋的事情就是免费开放还只是开始。


Open Education promises to turn the current textbook production pipeline into a vast dynamic knowledge ecosystem that is in a constant state of creation, use, reuse, and improvement.	开放教育将会把当前的课本生产转换为庞大的、充满活力的知识生态体系。 这一体系处于不断创新、使用、重新使用以及提高的状态。


Open Education promises to provide children with learning materials tailored to their individual needs, in contrast to today’s “off the rack” materials, together with quicker feedback loops that match learning outcomes more directly with content development and improvement.	开放教育还将会给孩子们提供符合个人需要的学习材料，而不是如今“脱节”的材料。 其反馈也更快，更加直接地把学习结果和内容开发与改进相适应。


And Open Education promises new approaches to collaborative learning that leverage social interaction among students and teachers worldwide.	开发教育将会给协作学习提供新的途径，充分利用全世界的学生和教师之间的社会互动。


Late last year in Cape Town, we joined delegates from around the world to reach a consensus on Open Education’s ideals and approaches, and we committed ourselves to them in the Cape Town Open Education Declaration, which was officially released on January 22.	去年年底，我们在开普敦和来自全世界的代表们一道达成了有关开放教育理想和措施的共识，而且我们把这些内容写进开普敦开放教育宣言之中。 这一宣言在1月22日正式发布 (见www.


(See www.capetowndeclaration.org .)	capetowndeclaration. org) 。


Everyone has something to teach.	每个人都可以教给别人一点东西。


Everyone has something to learn.	每个人也都可以学到一些东西。


Together, we can all help transform the way the world develops, disseminates, and uses knowledge.	我们齐心协力就可以帮助转变世界开发、传播以及使用知识的方式。


Together, we can help make the dream of Open Education a reality.	我们齐心协力就可以帮助让开放教育的梦想成为现实。


The Operating System that Stole Christmas	偷走圣诞的操作系统


Before asking for a new Windows PC this holiday season, remember the old adage: “Be careful about what you wish for.”	在这个圣诞节想要一台新的Windows个人电脑之前，记住一句古老的谚语：“对你所盼望的事物保持警惕。 ”


In the best of all worlds, we would all benefit from the so-called “network effects” that result from most people using the same software: everyone could easily communicate with each other and teach each other how to use the software efficiently.	绝多数人使用同样的软件对所有人都有好处，我们可以从所谓的“网络效益”中得到利益：每个人都能轻而易举地与别人沟通，相互传授如何更为有效地使用软件。


Unfortunately, since Microsoft uses network effects to maximize its profits rather than to benefit users, the world it delivers is far from the best.	令人遗憾的是，由于微软利用网络效应来谋取利润最大化而不是惠及用户，它所缔造的世界离完美还有很大的距离。


Consider Vista, yet another “great” new operating system that Microsoft rolled out this year, together with Office 2007.	看看Vista和Office 2007，微软今年推出的另一款全新的“伟大”操作系统。


The first person at my company to use Vista was our Executive Vice-President. He was furious.	我所在的公司最先用上Vista的是我们的执行副总裁，这令他大为光火。


Vista and Office 2007 came with his new Dell computer by default.	他新买的戴尔电脑预先装好了Vista和Office 2007。


Dell didn’t ask: “Would you prefer the old versions of the operating system and MS Office that you know how to use?”	戴尔并没有征求意见：“你是不是更愿意使用老版本的操作系统和MS Office软件？


So our VP got a shiny new computer that he didn’t know how to use: functions were rearranged, and keyboard shortcuts were different.	”于是我们的副总得到了一台闪闪发光的新电脑，但却不知道如何使用：所有的功能都经过重新整理，键盘快捷方式跟以前相比也完全不同。


Think of the productivity cost of millions like him having to adjust to a new system.	想想成百上千万像他一样不得不适应新系统的人所要付出的效率代价。


Moreover, his coworkers couldn’t read the Microsoft Word files that he sent them in the new “.docx” format.	这还不算，他身边的同事都无法阅读他发送的新的“docx”格式的Microsoft Word文件。


They wrote back and asked him to resend files in the older “.doc” format – which might not have worked if he had inadvertently used some new-fangled formatting feature.	他们给他回信，请求他用老的“doc”格式重新发送——如果他无意中使用了某些新发明的格式化功能，那么就算是重发也不会管用。


To be sure, Microsoft does provide a patch that allows old versions of Office to read the new “.docx” format.	可以肯定的是，微软的确提供了一种能让老版Office软件阅读全新“docx”文件的方法。


But Microsoft doesn’t publicize it – or warn you if your Office 2007 file is about to become incompatible with older versions.	但微软却不做任何宣传——或者警告你Office 2007文件无法与老版本兼容。


While Microsoft could have kept the traditional “.doc” as its default format for MS Word, this would not have served its purpose: eventually, after enough of the world pays for Office 2007, holdouts will be dragged along, kicking and screaming.	尽管微软也许会把传统的“doc”文件作为MS Word的缺省格式，但这样做却并非它的目的：最终，在全世界足够数量的人掏钱购买了Office 2007之后，无论如何挣扎喊叫，那些坚守阵地的人都会被拖着向前走。


Then, in four or five years, Microsoft will begin our agony all over again.	而后，在4到5年的时间里，微软会再次上演让我们痛苦的一幕。


Obviously, Microsoft owns its old software and can decide at what price to sell it – or whether to sell it at all.	显而易见，微软完全拥有老的软件，可以任意决定它们的销售价格——或者是否进行销售。


More subtly, Microsoft can control expectations, which turn out to be self-fulfilling when network economies are substantial, as they are in software markets.	更为巧妙的是，微软能够控制人们的期望，而在软件等网络效应突出的市场上，这样做的确益处无穷。


If everyone woke up tomorrow expecting that the world would shift to Apple within a year, sales of Windows would plummet.	如果一觉醒来，每个人都认定世界将在一年内该用苹果，Windows的销售数量就会直线下降。


Why buy a Windows machine when all your colleagues will own Macintoshes and can help you on them but not Windows, and when all the independent software developers will be programming for the Mac’s new Leopard operating system?	如果所有同事都使用Macintosh，能就Macintosh而不是Windows向你提供帮助，如果所有的独立软件开发商都为Mac新的Leopard操作系统编写程序，那么为什么要去购买Windows电脑呢？


But that is not our world.	但实际情况却并非如此。


Whenever Microsoft rolls out a new operating system, the question is not whether you should switch, but when.	每当微软推出新的操作系统，问题都不在于你是否应该更换，而是你何时应该更换。


Adding new features can speed the transition, but what is necessary is only that the new system be incompatible with existing systems in certain respects, and that a sufficient number of people expect that it will become the new standard.	增加新功能可以加快转型的速度，但必要的却只是让新系统在某些方面与现有系统不兼容，还要有足够数量的人认为新系统将要成为新的标准。


Of course, creating new software is costly.	当然，编写新软件耗资巨大。


So why should Microsoft bother?	那么微软为什么还要这么做？


The Nobel laureate Ronald Coase answered that question long ago.	诺贝尔奖得主罗纳德·科斯在很久以前就找到了问题的答案。


According to “the Coase Conjecture,” a monopolist selling a durable good must sell it at marginal cost.	按照“科斯假设”，销售耐用商品的垄断厂商必须按产品的边际成本进行销售。


For Microsoft, the problem is that the marginal cost of software is zero.	而对于微软来讲，问题就在于软件的边际成本是零。


As a result, Microsoft cannot extract anything close to its full monopoly rents unless it sells upgrades.	其结果是，除非销售升级产品，否则微软将不可能取得与其垄断地位相对应的利润。


After all, even though Microsoft has a monopoly of primary sales of its software, copies sold in 2007 compete with those sold in 2006.	归根结底，即使微软在软件销售主要领域居于垄断，2007年售出的拷贝也会与2006年售出的争夺空间。


So, by creating incompatibilities, some subtle and some obvious, that make its old software obsolete, Microsoft can sell its operating systems at high profit margins without fear that people will wait until the price drops.	因此，尽管有时微妙有时明显，但通过人为制造使原有软件过时的不兼容之处，微软就可以在人们等待价格下降时有恃无恐，并以丰厚的利润销售旧版操作系统。


The price will never drop, because Microsoft will just roll out a new system, again at high profit margins.	价格永远也不会下降，因为微软只需推出一个全新系统，就可以再度获得丰厚的利润空间。


Microsoft has been in antitrust trouble for 15 years, and, despite the company’s recent agreement with the European Union to license its source code, it will probably be in trouble again.	15年来，微软一直受到反托拉斯法的困扰，而尽管该公司不久前与欧盟达成了源代码特许协议，但它很可能将再次陷入麻烦。


When that happens, I hope the antitrust authorities will consider a remedy that Ian Ayres, Hal Varian, and I devised.	如果真的发生这种情况，我希望反托拉斯当局能考虑伊安·艾尔斯（Ian Ayres）、哈尔·瓦里安（Hal Varian）和我设计的补救方案。


Suppose Microsoft had to license its old software freely whenever it brings out a new version. This would give the company an incentive to ensure that new versions are compatible with and significantly better than old versions – otherwise the new versions wouldn’t sell, or at least not easily.	如果要求微软推出新版软件后免费授权旧版软件，就会刺激这家企业保证新旧软件能相互兼容，并且新软件要在各方面远远优于旧软件——否则新软件就会卖不出去，至少也是不那么容易销售。


If Microsoft’s new software had to compete successfully at least against its old software, we would know the world was improving.	如果微软的新软件至少不得不与自己的原有软件成功竞争，我们就可以确保世界能够向前发展。


In the meantime, I recommend installing the Microsoft patch to your old computer ( http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/word/HA100444731033.aspx ) and just suffering the devil you know.	与此同时，我建议在您的旧电脑上安装微软补丁（ http://office. microsoft.


The Opportunity in Seoul	首尔会议的良机


SEOUL – Hubris usually gives birth to disaster. The root cause of the current global crisis was intellectual hubris in the form of the blind belief that markets would always resolve their own problems and contradictions.	发自首尔——狂妄乃祸患之源，而当前的全球经济危机恰恰是根源于某种过度自信的思维，以为市场能自行解决所有问题和缺陷。


Thirty years after the Reagan-Thatcher revolution, the ideological pendulum has begun to swing in the opposite direction.	于是在里根—撒切尔改革过去整整30年后的今天，意识形态的钟摆又开始回头摆向另一个极端。


Each time in the last hundred years that a shift of this magnitude has occurred in beliefs about state-market relations, a major political-economic upheaval has ensued.	在过去的一个世纪里，每当定义市场与国家两者关系的理念发生剧变时，总会有一场政治经济风暴紧随其后。


For example, World War I marked the end of the nineteenth-century’s laissez-faire liberalism and ushered in a period of state-centered economic systems.	比如说，一战终结了19世纪以来自由放任的市场自由主义，取而代之的是以国家为中心的经济制度。


The Great Depression and World War II opened the new era of the Bretton Woods system of a more balanced state-market relationship.	大萧条和二战则开启了以布雷顿森林体系为核心的新时期，国家与市场之间的关系也因此变得更加均衡。


Similarly, the 2008 global financial crisis ended three decades of neo-liberalism, characterized by free trade and financial globalization.	而2008年爆发的全球金融危机则终结了了30多年来以自由贸易和金融全球化为特征的新自由主义。


We still do not know the nature of the era ahead of us; we can only be certain that the global economy is in the middle of a major transition, and that the old ways will not work anymore.	虽然我们尚难判断即将到来的新时代究竟会是何种性质，但唯一可以肯定的是：全球经济正处在一个大转型的过程中，老一套已经不管用了。


The main concern in this period of great uncertainty is whether the transition to a new paradigm can be managed without further destabilizing the international political-economic order.	在这样一个充满着不确定性的时期，最关键的问题是我们能否合理地掌控向新经济模式转变的过程，避免加剧国际政治经济秩序的不稳定性。


There are already some serious signs of distress – the currency war between the United States and China, and its spread to other countries, being a case in point.	而当前已经出现了一些令人沮丧的负面迹象——中美之间的货币战争以及战火向其他国家的蔓延，就是一个很好的例子。


Indeed, current global conditions have more worrying similarities to the early 1930’s than they have differences.	实际上，最令人忧心的是当前的全球形势其实与1930年非常类似。


Then, every state looked inward, squandering valuable opportunities to achieve common prosperity through international policy coordination.	当时各国只顾自扫门前雪，错过了通过国际合作来实现共同繁荣的宝贵机会。


The leadership vacuum caused by America’s unwillingness to cooperate and Britain’s sudden inability to lead resulted in the failure of the London Conference of 1933, which is often seen as opening the way to the Great Depression and the catastrophe of World War II.	美国拒绝合作，而英国又突然失去了领导能力，国际社会群龙无首，最后导致1933年的伦敦会议以失败告终，这场失败也被后人视为大萧条的诱因并最终催生了二战。


Having learned the lessons of the 1930’s, the post-war global economic order was built on a network of international institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and what ultimately became the World Trade Organization.	在吸取了20世纪30年代的种种教训之后，二战后全球经济秩序被建立在由一系列国际组织所构建的网络上，比如国际货币基金组织（IMF），世界银行以及世界贸易组织的前身。


But the lessons of the past seem to be too distant in policymakers’ minds these days, whereas domestic political pressure to put national economies first appears overwhelming.	但问题是这些历史教训似乎离今天的政策制定者太过遥远了，而要求优先考虑本国经济发展的国内政治压力则似乎压倒了一切。


In addition, the institutions created in the days following WWII no longer seem effective enough to meet the new challenges of the global economy, and thus have lost some of their legitimacy.	此外，二战后建立的那些国际组织似乎也不足以应付当今全球经济面临的新挑战，并因此在一定程度上失去了其存在合理性。


For example, the IMF’s authority has suffered in the recent decade – especially in Asia – from the fund’s deep commitment to neo-liberal orthodoxy and the so-called “Washington Consensus.”	比如说近十年间，国际货币基金组织的权威就因为该组织过度贯彻新自由主义理念以及所谓的“华盛顿共识”而遭到削弱。


Reinvigorating these institutions is the first step toward solving the global economy’s current problems.	很明显，为了解决当前全球经济所面临的问题，第一步必须重树这些组织的威望。


We need their help to implement norms, principles, rules, and decision-making procedures, thereby mitigating the endemic free-rider problems in quasi-anarchical international society.	毕竟我们需要它们来执行标准，原则，规范以及决策程序，以求在处于准无政府状态的国际社会中某些国家自己不动手应对，却从别人的应对措施中占便宜的问题。


Thus, the first task for the G-20 meeting on November 11-12 in Seoul must be to revitalize and strengthen the IMF and global financial regulation.	所以，对11月11，12日在首尔举行的G-20峰会来说，首要的任务就是重新激活和加强国际货币基金组织和全球金融管制。


If the G-20 leaders can also make meaningful progress towards resolving the Doha Round of trade negotiations, they will add momentum for global economic stabilization.	如果与会的各国首脑能够在解决多哈回合贸易谈判的问题上取得有价值的进展，那他们将有力地推动全球经济走向稳定。


There are signs that the Seoul meeting may be successful.	诸多迹象表明，首尔会议有可能会获得成功。


The meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in the South Korean city of Kyeongju on October 22 produced some noteworthy achievements, such as shifting 6% of the IMF’s voting quota from overrepresented Europe to underrepresented emerging countries, doubling members’ quotas, and reducing Europe’s representation on the Fund’s executive board by two seats.	10月22日在韩国庆州市举行的G-20财长和央行行长峰会已经达成了部分重要共识，比如把代表名额过多的欧洲的6%投票名额转移给了代表名额不足的新兴国家，从而将后者的名额增加一倍，同时将欧洲在IMF执行委员会里的席位减少两个。


IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn declared the move “historic” and the most important decision on the Fund’s governance since its establishment in 1944.	而IMF的执行主席多米尼克·斯特劳斯-卡恩则将这些举措称之为自该组织1944年成立以来的“历史性”的时刻和最重要的决定。


The IMF also was empowered to conduct the Mutual Assessment Process of each country’s macroeconomic policies under the Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth.	此外，会议还授权IMF在《强势，可持续和均衡发展框架》（Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth）下对各成员国的宏观经济政策执行相互评估程序。


That authority should allow the Fund to inspect even the world’s mightiest economies, the US and China.	根据授权，即便是中美这两个超级经济体也难逃IMF的评估。


The recent agreement by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision on a new capital-adequacy framework is another positive step.	而巴塞尔银行监管委员会最近就新资本充足比率框架所达成的协议则是另一个积极进展。


But the key issues lingering in the minds of the G-20 leaders will be exchange rates and global imbalances.	不过，萦绕在G-20集团各国领导人大脑里的关键议题依然还是汇率和全球贸易失衡。


The Kyeongju meeting decided that the G-20 countries would move toward market-determined exchange rates and pursue “politics conducive to reducing excessive imbalances and maintaining current-account imbalances at sustainable levels.”	庆州会议已经决定，G-20集团各国将转向市场化汇率，并努力达成有助于减少过度失衡以及将经常性账户失衡维持在一个可持续水平上的政治共识。


These two issues may or may not be on the table for further discussion in Seoul.	虽然目前还无法知道这两个议题能否在首尔会议上作进一步讨论。


If G-20 leaders can reach specific and effective agreements on exchange rates and global imbalances without overshadowing other issues, the prospects for a soft-landing for the global economy will improve greatly.	但如果G-20集团的各国领导人能够在不影响其他议题的情况下就汇率和全球失衡问题达成具体和有效协议的话，那么全球经济的软着陆就大有希望。


If not, protectionism and trade wars will intensify, and we will come one step closer to reliving the nightmare of the 1930’s.	如果不幸没有达成，那么保护主义和贸易战争就会加剧，而我们也离重演1930的噩梦又进了一步。


Either way, the Seoul G-20 summit will likely mark a watershed in the history of the post-war global political economy.	无论会议结果如何，首尔的G-20峰会都将成为后二战时代全球政治经济历史的分水岭。


The Ordeal of Pius XII	教皇皮亚斯十二世的苦难历程


ROME – Once again, the reputation of Pope Pius XII is under scrutiny and attack.	罗马-教皇皮亚斯十二世的声誉正再次受到责问和攻击。


Indeed, so searching are the questions and so inflamed are discussions about the Roman Catholic Church’s pontiff during World War II that the current pope, Benedict XVI, recently announced that he may postpone Pius’s beatification until the Vatican’s archives for the war years are opened and examined.	事实上，针对这位二战期间罗马天主教教皇而提出的问题是如此的尖锐，对其的讨论是如此的激烈，以致当前教皇本笃十六世最近宣布，他可能会把皮亚斯十二世的宣福礼推迟到梵蒂冈战争年代的档案开放供审查后举行。


Why is Pius XII so often accused of having been almost an accomplice of Nazi Germany when, during his papacy, the Catholic Church in Rome protected and hid thousands of Jews?	皮亚斯十二世在位期间，罗马的天主教会保护和为数以千计的犹太人提供藏身之处。 然而为何他却常常被指控为几乎是纳粹德国共犯呢？


This is one of the knottiest historical questions of our times.	这是个我们时代的最棘手的历史问题之一。


For several years after WWII’s end, Pius XII enjoyed great popularity, even within the Jewish community.	二战结束后的数年中，皮亚斯十二世享有极高的声望，甚至在犹太人社区也是如此。


The tide turned during the 1960’s, with Rolf Hochhuth’s play The Deputy the starting point for feverish questioning of Pius’s reputation.	但此潮流于20世纪60年代转向，以罗尔夫﹒霍赫胡特的剧本“副手”为起点，皮亚斯十二世的声誉开始遭到激烈的质疑。


But to understand how Pius’s reputation began to be challenged, we must see Hochhuth’s play within the context of the great social and cultural upheavals of the 1960’s.	但是，要了解皮亚斯十二世的声誉是如何开始受到挑战的，我们必须在1960年代巨大社会和文化的动荡的历史条件下，来读霍赫胡特的剧本。


The German left wanted to change the interpretation of German history that was the foundation for the democratic and capitalist West Germany built by Chancellor Konrad Adenauer.	德国左翼那时想改变对德国历史的解释，这种解释是康拉德·阿登纳总理建立民主资本主义西德的基础。


That interpretation considered the horrors of Hitler’s National Socialism as a consequence of apostasy in Germany.	这种解释认为，希特勒的国家社会主义的恐怖行为是发生在德国的叛教的后果。


In the 1920’s and 1930’s, Germany’s traditional Christian values and culture had collapsed under the attack of two atheist ideologies: communism and Nazism.	在1920年代和1930年代，德国传统的基督教价值观和文化在共产主义和纳粹主义这两种无神论思想的攻击下倒塌了。


Both destroyed the Weimar Republic, acting as a kind of evil twins who hated each other, yet shared a common hatred of Christianity and democracy.	这两种思想摧毁了了魏玛共和国，共产主义和纳粹主义犹如一对邪恶的双胞胎，彼此憎恨，但却有着共同的对基督教和民主的仇恨。


The new interpretation that came with the radicalized German youth movement of 1968 argued that the Hitler era was not a sharp break with German history, but rather continuous with it.	这种随着1968年的德国激进青年运动而来的新解释认为，希特勒时代不是和德国历史严重脱离的，而是后者的延续。


The only direction for German culture that did not lead to the spiritual abyss of Nazism – according to this radical new interpretation – was Marxism.	根据这一激进的新的解释，德国文化中只有马克思主义并没有导致纳粹主义的精神深渊。


Not the fossilized Marxism of the German Democratic Republic, of course, but the new “critical” Marxism espoused by figures such as Herbert Marcuse.	当然这里所指的马克思主义不是东德的僵化马克思主义，而是新的“及其重要的”被赫伯特·马尔库塞这些人所信仰的马克思主义。


Given the distortion of reality that lay behind this vision, it is easy to understand how Pius XII came to be considered by its advocates an ally of Hitler.	鉴于这一观点背后的对事实的歪曲，我们 便很容易理解教皇皮亚斯十二世是如何被拥护此观点的人视为希特勒的盟友的。


Indeed, on the same basis, Adenauer could be (and was) considered a national socialist.	事实上，根据同样的依据，阿登纳也可以（也曾被）被视为国家社会主义分子。


True, Pius XII did not condemn Nazism during the war.	诚然，皮亚斯十二世没有在战争期间谴责纳粹主义。


But his predecessor Pope Pius XI had already done that, in the Encyclical Mit Brennender Sorge (“With Burning Concern”).	但是，他的前任皮亚斯十一世在教皇 Mit Brennender Sorge （ “随着燃烧的关怀” ）的通告中已经这样做了。


Pius XI had also condemned Communism, in the Encyclical Divini Redemptoris .	皮亚斯十一也在 Divini Redemptoris 通告中谴责了共产主义。


So the Church’s teachings about the evils of Nazism were crystal clear to everyone.	因此，每一个人都清晰地知道教会对纳粹主义罪恶的教义。


So why didn’t Pius XII reiterate this condemnation of National Socialism during the war?	那么，战争期间教皇皮亚斯十二世为什么没有重申对国家社会主义谴责？


To answer this question, we need to see the situation through the eyes of the man who led the Catholic Church during those years.	为了回答这个问题，我们必须站在这位当年领导天主教教会的教皇的角度上观察当时的形势。


It is a vision very different from ours.	这是一个非常不同于我们的视角。


To a neutral observer in the 1940’s, the war was mainly a war of Nazism versus Communism.	如果站在中立的立场上来观察， 1940年代的战争主要是纳粹主义与共产主义之间的战争。


Europe was the prize.	双方所要争夺的就是欧洲。


The Western democracies, as most historians now acknowledge, played a comparatively minor role in the great military struggle.	大多数历史学家现在也承认，西方的民主国家在这场伟大的军事争斗中，起了相对次要的作用。


The Pope believed that he could either condemn both totalitarian powers or condemn neither of them.	教皇相信，他可以对这两种极权主义势力都予以谴责，或对两者都不谴责。


But any condemnation by Pius of Communism would have been exploited by Nazi propaganda as support for Hitler’s war effort.	但是，教皇对共产主义的任何谴责都会被纳粹的宣传机器所利用，以表明是对希特勒战争的支持。


And a condemnation of Nazism could have been misinterpreted as an attack not against Nazism, but against Germany in its life-and-death struggle with Stalin’s Communist regime.	而对纳粹主义的谴责可能被误解为不是反对纳粹主义而是反对正在和斯大林的共产主义国家作生死搏斗的德国。


Very few people in the Vatican – indeed, in Europe at large – had any real knowledge in those days of the vast industrial might of the United States.	当时在梵蒂冈很少有人真正知道美国工业上的巨大实力，事实上整个欧洲也没有什么人知道。


And even those who did know something about American power, doubted that the Americans would accept the dangers and expense of defending Europe against Communism after Nazi Germany was defeated.	即使是那些知道一些美国力量的人也怀疑美国人会接受纳粹德国战败后为反对共产主义而捍卫欧洲的危险和代价。


Nobody could imagine that the invention of the atomic bomb would give the US such an extraordinary military advantage that defending Europe would become feasible and acceptable to the American public.	没人能想象，原子弹的发明会给美国于如此非凡的军事优势，以致捍卫欧洲成为可行之事，而美国公众也会接受这一点。


Pius XII was a Pope, not a prophet.	皮亚斯十二世是教皇，而不是先知先觉者。


He did not know about all this and could not reasonably have known.	他并不知道这一切，而且也不可能知道。


So what was the Pope’s vision during the war years?	那么教皇在战争年代的见地是这样的呢？


A longstanding Germanophile, Pius XII was nonetheless anti-Nazi.	他长期以来喜爱德国，但他却是反纳粹的。


He hoped that Germany could be separated from Nazism, that Nazism could be destroyed without destroying Germany, thus preserving that great nation as a bulwark against the Soviet Union.	他希望德国能够脱离纳粹主义，纳粹主义能被摧毁的同时而德国不被摧毁，从而让这个伟大国家作为抵御苏联的桥头堡。


This was exactly the vision held by the German patriots who participated in the conspiracy to assassinate Hitler on July 20, 1944.	这种见地完全就是和1944年7月20日阴谋暗杀希特勒德国爱国者们的一样。


Most of them paid with their lives, and are now honored in the West for their courage and principles.	大部分参与此行动的人为此付出了生命的代价，现在他们在西方因他们的勇气和原则而备受赞扬。


Yet Pius is ritually condemned.	然而，皮亚斯却遭到宗教上的谴责。


The Germany of Klaus von Stauffenberg, not Hitler, was the Germany that Pius XII loved.	皮亚斯十二热爱的是克劳斯·冯·施陶芬贝格的德国，而不是希特勒的德国。


Indeed, papal diplomats not only knew about the plot against Hitler, but sought to mediate between the conspirators and the Allied Powers.	事实上，教皇的外交官们不仅知道暗杀希特勒的行动，而且曾力图在行动策划者们和盟国之间进行协调。


The hope of breaking Nazi power while preserving Germany from the destiny of utter destruction and bloodshed that awaited it in the last months of the war was a noble one, even if in the end it proved to be unrealistic.	教皇希望能粉碎纳粹力量，同时也能让德国免于在战争的最后数月中被彻底毁灭和流血的命运。 这是一个崇高的希望，即使在最后被证明是不现实的。


If Pius sinned with this hope, his was a noble sin.	如果皮亚斯因怀有这一希望而被定为有罪孽，那么他的罪孽是一宗崇高的罪孽。


The Organ Crisis	器官危机


LONDON – Organ transplantation is one of the most impressive achievements of modern medicine.	伦敦——器官移植是现代医学最令人赞叹的一项成果。


It has brought hope to millions of patients suffering from previously fatal organ failure.	它为成百上千万此前只能听任致命器官衰竭的患者带来了希望。


For many, it has made life longer and better.	它延长了许多患者的生命，提高了他们的生存质量。


It has benefited many professionals and industries, too, by becoming a new source of pride, funding, and profit.	许多专家和行业同样从器官移植中受益，他们得到资金、利润并为所取得的成就感到自豪。


Struggling to contain costs, health-care payers are also among its beneficiaries.	受益的还有竭力控制医疗开支的付费方。


Kidney transplantation, for example, has proved to be less costly than dialysis.	打个比方，肾移植的成本就比透析低得多。


Yet, since its inception, transplant medicine has been grappling with a rapidly increasing gap between the supply of organs and demand for them.	但从一开始，移植医学就一直被器官供应和需求之间不断扩大的差距所困扰。


For most stakeholders, the often dire consequences gave rise to a whole set of solutions, all based on one general strategy: if we are short of organs, then let us get more of them.	多数利益相关者为避免悲惨结果而采取了一系列解决办法，这些办法的目的只有一个：如果器官不够用，我们就找更多器官来满足需求。


This strategy has come with a high price tag, however.	但随之而来的就是令人望而生畏的价格。


On the one hand, it has given rise to some exceptionally corrupt practices, such as organ trafficking, transplant tourism, and many other ugly phenomena associated with a black market in organs.	一方面，器官短缺引发了器官贩卖、移植旅游等某些特别腐败的作法和由器官黑市交易引起的其他丑恶现象。


On the other hand, it has put transplant ethics under severe strain.	而另一方面，它对严重地挑战了器官移植道德。


Indeed, transplant ethics has been on a slippery slope almost since transplants began.	事实上，几乎从器官移植一开始，移植道德的基础就根本不牢固。


The strategy of getting more organs has pushed, and continues to push, the ethical line to places that had previously been deemed immoral.	获得更多器官的目标一直在推动、而且还将继续推动人们的道德底线向着此前被认定为不道德的方向移动。


To tackle insufficient supply from the dead, we first embraced an increasingly inclusive, and at any rate flexible, definition of death.	为解决死者器官供应不足的问题，我们先是采用了越来越宽泛、并且非常灵活的死亡定义。


This has often raised suspicions about the motivations of doctors in pronouncing a candidate donor’s death.	人们经常会质疑医生宣布捐赠候选人死亡时的动机。


We then came up with the idea of opt-out consent for deceased organ donation.	而后我们又发明了死者器官捐赠选择性退出制度。


This system, which allows organs to be harvested also from refusers who have failed to express their refusal, has not increased trust in medicine, either.	这种制度默许对无法表达拒绝意见的拒绝者的器官加以利用，这对医疗行业的信任度也没有丝毫帮助。


As the organ crisis continued to deepen, we allowed donations from the living.	随着器官危机继续深化，我们又开了活人捐献的先河。


This was particularly audacious, for it required us to abandon the supreme Hippocratic principle according to which it is unprofessional to injure a healthy person.	这种作法尤其冒险，因为它致使我们放弃了希波克拉底的最高原则——伤害健康人有损职业道德。


In the category of living donations, we first permitted only directed donations by relatives and non-directed donations by non-relatives.	在活人捐赠领域，我们起先只允许实施亲属定向及非亲属不定向捐赠的作法。


We assumed that family ties and non-directedness would preclude coercion and commerce.	我们假定亲属关系和不定向捐赠可以避免强制和商业因素。


However, the mechanisms we used to confirm that assumption were conveniently lax.	但我们落实上述假设的制度非常不严格。


They did not allow certain forms of coercion to interfere with the donor’s consent.	这些规定不允许某种形式的胁迫干涉捐献者的决定。


Nor were they overly fastidious about clandestine commercial ties.	它们有关秘密交易关系的规定也并不十分严格。


By that time, we had already become aware that interests in organ commerce were constantly intensifying, and that those in need of organs or money were increasingly likely to turn to the black market or seek a legal loophole that would allow them to conceal the commercial transaction behind some legitimate gesture.	其实，我们已经意识到器官买卖涉及的利益越来越可观，而需要钱或需要器官的人转向黑市、或者寻找法律漏洞、以合法姿态来掩盖背后商业交易的可能性越来越大。


Until recently, we have not done much about the black market (the 2008 Declaration of Istanbul marks the beginning of a determined struggle against this market), but we banned altruistic directed donations by living non-relatives out of fear that they would become that legal loophole.	直到不久前，我们都还没有采取措施来取缔黑市（2008年的《伊斯坦布尔宣言》是针对黑市斗争开始的标志），但我们取缔了非亲属活体出于利他动机的定向捐赠，害怕它们会成为被人利用的法律漏洞。


This fear did not last long, though.	但这种恐惧并没有能够延续下去。


The increasing demand for more organs has driven us to legitimize this category as well.	越来越迫切的器官需求已经驱使我们将这一领域合法化。


Indeed, it has helped a lot, but it has not sufficed, either.	事实上，非亲属定向捐赠解决了很多问题，但并没有彻底满足对于器官的需求。


Currently, we peddle the idea of quasi-non-commercial incentives for organ donations from both the deceased and the living.	目前，我们宣扬的是死亡及活体领域器官捐赠的所谓准非商业计划。


For example, the new Israeli transplant law provides incentives for people to sign a donor card by giving them and their relatives priority on transplant waiting lists.	举例来讲，新生效的以色列器官移植法鼓励人们签署器官捐赠卡，并承诺签署捐赠卡的人可以在等待移植时受到照顾。


This material incentive is in clear breach of the principle that organs should be distributed according to need only.	这种物质刺激明显违反了器官只允许按需分配的原则。


Moreover, it is likely to discriminate against people who are either unaware of the donor-card system or tend to refuse to sign the card for reasons associated with religious beliefs or low trust in the medical authorities.	此外，这还可能对不了解捐赠卡制度的人构成歧视，同样受到歧视的还有出于宗教信仰因素拒绝签署捐赠卡，或者不信任医疗机构的患者。


The same law indeed forbids commerce in organs, but offers living donors reimbursement of expenses that contains fixed-sum elements.	同样一部法律事实上禁止器官贸易，但规定可以为活体捐赠者提供固定数额的开支补偿。


Moreover, the Israeli National Transplant and Organ Donation Center now openly encourages providers, insurance companies, and the Donor Card Institution, to pay families who consent to donate the organs of their deceased relative.	此外，以色列国家移植和器官捐献中心现在公开鼓励供体、保险公司和捐赠卡机构向同意捐献死亡亲属器官的家庭支付费用。


Such arrangements, which should be described as government-sponsored commercialism, are considered unacceptable by all relevant international declarations.	这种安排应该称做由政府主导的商业行为，这在所有相关国际宣言中都是明令禁止的。


If things continue as they have, we will soon become tired of quick-fix remedies.	如果事态继续这样发展下去，我们将很快厌倦只能应一时之急的解决办法。


Indeed, advocates of the increasingly popular idea of a regulated market in organs claim that it is the ultimate treatment.	实际上，建立监管有序的器官市场被越来越多的人所接受，宣扬这种理念的人称这才是最终的解决之道。


Perhaps it is.	或许真是这样。


But let us not even go there!	但我们千万不要这样做！


For even if we believe that buyers and sellers of organs can in principle enter the transaction on the basis of free choice, none of them has chosen to face the underlying dilemma in the first place.	因为即使我们相信买卖双方能大致基于自由选择进行交易，但他们中的任何一方都没有选择在第一时间直面两难的困境。


Both are victims: the buyer is a victim of morbidity and declining social solidarity, while the seller is a victim of poverty and other forms of financial distress.	买卖双方都是牺牲者：买方受害于疾病和社会凝聚力下降，而卖方则受害于贫困和其他形式的财务困境。


A regulated market would not challenge these man-made facts.	监管有序的市场也不会改变这些人为因素。


Instead, it would reaffirm them more than any previous ethical solution has ever done.	相反，与此前的道德解决方法相比，这些因素会进一步得到强化。


Many of the social crises that we currently face are just symptoms.	我们当前面临的许多社会危机都不过是一种表象。


Yet the underlying problems must be addressed as well if we are to lead the kind of life that human beings can and deserve to have.	但如果我们想要过上人类可以也本应过上的生活，背后的深层次问题就必需得到解决。


The organ crisis is no different.	器官危机同样是这样。


Instead of medicalizing and ethicalizing it, let us direct our main efforts at draining the swamp.	与其将器官危机医学化、道德化，不如将主要精力放在釜底抽薪上。


Organ transplantation, like mosquito repellent, should be used sparingly, and only when there is no other choice.	像驱蚊剂一样，器官移植的方法也应该慎用，它应该是其他方法都无效时的最后选择。


The Other Asia	亚洲的阴暗面


WASHINGTON, DC – South Asia presents a depressing paradox.	发自华盛顿——当前，南亚地区正处在一种令人沮丧的矛盾态势之中。


It is among the fastest growing regions in the world, but it is also home to the largest concentration of people living in debilitating poverty, conflict, and human misery.	一方面，它是世界上发展最快的地区之一，但在在另一方面，南亚也是世界上贫困人口密度最高的地方，当地人民深受赤贫，冲突和苦难困扰。


While South Asia is far more developed than Sub-Saharan Africa, and India (the largest country in the region) has achieved lower middle-income status, South Asia has many more poor people than Sub-Saharan Africa.	尽管比撒哈拉以南非洲发展程度更高，且印度（南亚地区最大的国家）的收入水平已经达到了中等偏下，但南亚的贫困人口数量却远高于撒哈拉以南非洲。


This raises the big question of whether the best escape from poverty comes from general economic growth or from a direct attack on poverty.	这就向我们提出了一个大问题：摆脱贫困的最佳手段究竟是追求总体经济发展，还是直接消灭具体的贫困现象？


The answer depends on where one looks.	而答案则取决于我们看问题的角度。


Stupendous growth hides deep pockets of poverty.	经济的高速增长有时会掩盖了某些偏远地区的贫困状况。


For the countries of South Asia, poverty has morphed from a national to a sub-national problem.	对南亚国家来说，贫困已经从国家整体问题转变成了内部某些区域的问题。


Although economic growth has reduced South Asia’s poverty rate, it has not fallen fast enough to reduce the total number of poor people.	经济发展的确降低了南亚的贫困率，但下降的速度还不足以减少贫困人口的总量。 生活消费水平低于1.


The number of people living on less than $1.25 a day increased from 549 million in 1981 to 595 million in 2005.	25美元/天的人口数量从1981年的5. 49亿增加到了2005年的5.


In India, which accounts for almost three-quarters of this population, the numbers increased from 420 million to 455 million during this period.	95亿，其中3/4居住在印度，并导致其国内贫困人口数量从4. 2亿上升到4.


Besides the slow pace of poverty reduction, human development has not kept up with the pace of income growth, either.	55亿。 除消除贫困的进度较慢的原因以外，个人生活质量的改善也未能跟上收入增长的步伐。


There are more than 250 million children in South Asia who are undernourished, and more than 30 million children who do not go to school.	在南亚，有超过2. 5亿儿童营养不良，3000万儿童没有受到教育。


Over one-third of adult women are anemic.	1/3以上的成年妇女患有贫血。


The share of female employment in total employment is among the lowest in the world.	女性占总体就业人口的比例是全世界最低的。


Indeed, South Asia, with deeper regional disparities than the rest of the world, is really two South Asia’s. A lot of attention has been given to the “Shining Asia,” while the “Suffering Asia” has been forgotten.	事实上，由于区域发展不平衡现象比世界其他地区更为严重，所以南亚实际上是割裂成两个部分的——世人的目光仅仅聚焦在“闪耀的南亚”上，而“苦难的南亚”因此被遗忘在光环之下。


The gap between them is so wide that they seem to be anchored in two different centuries.	这两者之间的距离如此巨大，让人仿佛身处两个不同的世纪。


Worse still, it continues to increase.	更糟糕的是，这一鸿沟还在不断扩大之中。


The leading regions have experienced rapid growth.	南亚较发达的地区已经实现了快速增长。


They have acted as gateways connecting South Asia to the developed world, and have benefited from globalization, education, capital accumulation, and technological advancement.	这些区域得益于全球化，教育发展，资本积累和技术革新，并已成为南亚与发达国家之间的联系门户。


This is sustainable as there is huge room for South Asia to catch up to rich countries’ productivity levels.	目前看来，这种快速发展也是可持续的，南亚仍有巨大的发展空间来赶超发达国家的生产力水平。


This transformation has become a virtuous circle where initial growth has spiraled into greater growth, leading to more growth.	与此同时，这一转型已经演变成一个良性循环，初始增长已经螺旋上升为更大范围的增长，并带动进一步发展。


Some leading regions in India are now the envy of other middle income countries.	印度国内一些较富裕地区现已开始向中等收入水平国家看齐。


Indeed growth can eliminate poverty in leading regions in a generation.	毫无疑问，在那些较发达地区，贫困将会在一代人的时间内被消灭。


But the lagging regions are doing no better than many Sub-Saharan African countries.	但在那些落后地区，情况并不比许多撒哈拉以南非洲国家好多少。


Indeed, their social and human development indicators are worse than in Sub-Saharan Africa.	一个明显的事实是，该地区各项社会和人民生活质量指标都比撒哈拉以南非洲低很多。


South Asia’s worst problems – poverty, conflict, hunger, and gender inequalities – are largely concentrated in its lagging regions, where there are limits to growth, because geography, institutions, and globalization will continue to favor the concentration of economic activity in the leading regions.	南亚面临的几个最深重问题——贫困，冲突，饥饿以及性别歧视——几乎都集中落后地区。 由于地理因素，制度因素以及全球化都将继续向经济活动较为集中的发达地区倾斜，落后地区的发展还将受到诸多限制。


With migration to leading regions low, poverty remains concentrated in the lagging regions.	而向发达地区迁移的人口数量又不多，因此贫困仍将集中在落后地区。


What can be done?	针对以上情况，我们能做些什么呢？


There is no universal “fix” in economic development, and pluralism of approaches has great value.	有一点是需要牢记的，经济发展中没有放之四海而皆准的“补救措施”，而多元主义方法论在这个问题上也存在着巨大的价值。


The challenge is to find what works best inwhich setting.	因此，需要回答的问题就是在什么情况下哪些方法是最好的。


While economic growth is critical for poverty reduction, reviving growth in lagging regions will take time.	毫无疑问，经济增长对减少贫困至关重要，但落后地区经济的振兴却是需要耗费时日的。


Rather than wait for a rising tide to lift all boats, policymakers should consider direct policy interventionsto reduce poverty.	与其等待经济的总体增长拉高这些地区的增长，政策制定者更应该考虑采取直接的政策干预来减少贫困。


A direct attack on poverty can yield a double dividend: in reducing human misery, it could spark growth, thereby creating more political space for direct poverty reduction.	实施具体扶贫措施可以收到一箭双雕之效：通过减少人们的苦难进而刺激增长，最终为更多的具体扶贫措施赢得政治空间。


A high priority should be given to increasing pro-poor fiscal transfers.	对增加有利于穷人的财政转移支付政策应该予以优先考虑。


Lagging states spend considerably less than leading states on social services, including education and health care.	在社会服务（包括教育和医疗服务）方面，落后国家的财政投入要远低于富裕国家。


Poor regions have a low base of economic activity to tax, which prevents them from investing in human and physical capital.	此外，贫穷地区经济活动较少，相应的税收总量也较低，阻碍了他们利用税收来提高人民生活质量和兴建基础设施。


Achieving equity through fiscal transfers can ensure a level playing field.	在这一方面，通过财政转移支付来实现的公平至少能够确保一个公平竞争环境的形成。


But simply directing financial resources to lagging regions will not be enough to solve their problems.	不过，简单地把财政资源投入到落后地区并不足以解决那里的问题。


For example, the gains from labor mobility have not been equally sharedbetween educated and uneducated migrants.	例如，由劳动力自由流动所带来的收益还没有在受过教育和缺乏教育的移民人口中实现平等分配。


The gains are much higher for skilled workers, so the mobility rate increases with education.	技术工人的收于明显高于其他人高，因此人口流动率随受教育程度增加而增加。


The mobility of university graduates is much higher than the mobility of unskilled workers.	大学毕业生的流动率就比非技术工人要高得多。


Removing barriers to human mobility – such as labor laws, state-specific social-welfare programs, and housing-market distortions – should be an integral part of development.	消除人口流动的壁垒——例如劳动法的限制，各州各自独立的���会福利计划，以及住房市场的扭曲等——应该是整体发展战略的一个组成部分。


Human mobility promotes growth and reduces poverty. It also empowers traditionally disadvantaged groups, particularly women.	人口流动能促进增长并减少贫困，而那些弱势群体的地位也能得到提升，特别是妇女。


Likewise, slow agricultural growth has constrained economic opportunities for the vast majority of poor people in lagging regions.	同理，农业增长的缓慢也限制了落后地区广大贫困人口的经济发展机会。


Policymakers should recast agriculture in the new environment of globalization, supply chains, and growing domestic demand.	政策制定者应该在全球化，供应链和国内需求日益增加的新背景下对农业进行重组。


The food-price crisis of two years ago served as a wake-up call, and has created an opportunity to revisit existing agricultural policies.	两年前的农产品价格危机已敲响了警钟，并为已有的农业政策的重新思考提供了契机。


Regional development policies to promote so-called “equitable growth” are not a solution, for two reasons. First, empirical evidence shows that convergence of per capita income between lagging and leading regions is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for achieving poverty reduction and social convergence.	以促进所谓“平等发展”为核心的区域发展政策并不是一个好方法，原因有二：首先，减少落后地区和富裕地区的人均收入差距并不是实现减少贫困和社会融合目标的充要条件。


Second, regional policies that promote “balanced” growth could lower overall growth, thereby impeding poverty reduction.	其次，以促进“平衡”增长为中心的区域政策反倒会拉低整体的增长，反倒阻碍了贫困状况的改善。


South Asia is at a critical stage in its historical transformation, when deepening economic disparities could stifle growth itself.	南亚现在正处于一个历史转型的关键阶段，日益恶化的经济发展不平衡很可能最终抑制增长。


If not addressed through direct measures, all of Asia will suffer.	如果不采取直接有效的措施，那么这个问题将殃及整个亚洲。


The Other, Brighter Africa	另一个光明的非洲


LONDON – The usual images of Africa are of a continent mired in conflict and squalor.	伦敦 —— 非洲在人们心目中普遍的形象是一块陷入冲突和悲惨沼泽中的大陆。


But this picture, based on Africa’s most corrupt regimes, is unfair and misleading – like claiming that all Europeans are guilty of “ethnic cleansing” because of what happened in the former Yugoslavia.	但这种基于非洲最腐败政府所得出的印象既不公平又具有误导性 —— 就像因为前南发生的事件就宣称所有欧洲人都犯有“种族清洗罪”一样。


Yes, African has some failed states, but most of its 53 countries are mostly peaceful, agreeable places.	非洲有某些失败国家的确是事实，但 53 个非洲国家中的绝大多数从总体上看还是令人愉悦的和平国度。


Last year, the annual Ibrahim Index of African governance, produced by my foundation, showed that governance had improved in two-thirds of African countries.	去年，由我领导的基金会编制的年度易卜拉欣非洲治理指数表明，三分之二的非洲国家改善了国家的治理状况。


And if we look at politicians such as Joaquim Chissano, the former president of Mozambique, or Festus Mogae, the former president of Botswana, as well as men like Kofi Annan and Nelson Mandela, the high caliber of African leadership is obvious.	如果以前莫桑比克总统 若阿金·希萨诺或前博茨瓦纳总统费斯图斯·莫哈埃等政治家、以及科菲·安南和纳尔逊·曼德拉等人为参照，非洲领导人的素质显然非常之高。


This matters because good governance is the cornerstone of development.	善政是发展的基础，因此这一点至关重要。


Governments must establish an enabling environment for the private sector to create jobs, and officials cannot consider the public purse to be a private bank account.	政府必须为私有部门雇佣人员就业创造良好的环境，官员也不能将国库与私人银行账户混淆。


Government is responsible for delivering services, but it is up to civil society to be vigilant and ensure that officials work toward these aims.	政府有责任提供服务，但民间团体必须时刻保持警惕，确保官员遵守相应的发展目标。


A strong civil society that monitors and demands more of its leaders is vital to improving Africa’s governance.	对领导人监督更强、要求更高的强大的民间团体在改善非洲治理中的作用至关重要。


As with economics, demand stimulates supply.	就像在经济领域当中一样，供给是为了满足需求。


The annual Ibrahim Index of African Governance tracks government performance across sub-Saharan Africa, providing a tool that allows citizens and civil-society groups to monitor their governments’ progress.	每年发布的易卜拉欣非洲治理指数跟踪撒哈拉以南非洲各国的政府执政状况，为公民和民间团体监督政府作为提供了有效的方法。


We look at almost a hundred indicators and define governance in a new way – as the public goods and services that should be provided to citizens.	我们搜集近百种相关指标，以全新的方式描绘执政状况 —— 衡量标准是 应当 为民众提供的公共产品和服务。


We do not measure inputs – including aid or natural-resource revenues – or government promises and commitments; instead, we have chosen to measure the impact of government activities on the lives of citizens.	我们不以投入 —— 包括援助或自然资源收入为依据，也不注重政府的承诺和目标； 相反，我们选择衡量政府行为对民众生活的影响。


Alongside this focus on improving African governance, we must also put pressure on our leaders to encourage regional integration.	在关注改善非洲治理状况的同时，我们还必须对领导人施加压力，推动非洲的区域性融合。


Many small, landlocked African countries will never become serious players in the global economy without increased cooperation within their own regions.	如果不加大区域合作力度，非洲许多内陆小国永远也无法真正成为全球经济的参与者。


Today’s haphazard, overlapping regional integration is proving largely ineffective, and this severely hampers African countries’ ability to compete in international markets.	事实证明如今危险而重叠的区域融合基本上效率低下，这导致非洲国家参与国际市场竞争的能力受到很大影响。


One of the consequences of this lack of cooperation for Africa’s 967 million people is the bureaucratic replication and currency-exchange issues that being divided into 53 countries entails.	对 9 亿 6 千 7 百万非洲民众来说，缺乏合作的后果之一是官僚机构重叠，货币兑换问题成为 53 个国家的共同包袱。


China, with 1.3 billion people, is just one country; and the European Union, with some 500 million people, functions as a single economic market, with most of its members sharing a single currency.	拥有 13 亿人的中国是一个统一的国家，而人口 5 亿左右的欧盟也形成了统一的经济市场，其中多数成员国使用共同的货币参与流通。


If Africa’s small and diverse nations do not come together, they will never integrate properly into the world economy, and so will not reap the benefits of our globalised world.	如果非洲形形色色的小国无法团结在一起，它们或许永远也无法与世界经济实现有效的融合，因此也无法从我们全球化的世界中收获好处。


Economic integration must be backed up by increased intra-regional trade; less than 4% of Africa’s trade is between African countries, compared to over 70% in Europe and over 50% in Asia.	经济融合必须以扩大区域贸易为后盾，非洲贸易只有区区不足 4% 来自非洲国家内部，而欧洲的同一比例高达 70% ，亚洲也在 50% 以上。


The International Monetary Fund credits Asian intra-regional trade as the main factor behind its recent export boom and strong economic growth.	国际货币基金组织将亚洲近期的出口繁荣和强劲经济增长归功于亚洲的区域贸易。


Africa, with its huge and often untapped markets, must follow the same path.	拥有巨大未开发市场的非洲必须坚持同样的道路。


Africans themselves must tackle these issues, but our international partners have an important role to play.	这些问题必须由非洲人自己处理，但我们的国际伙伴可以发挥重要作用。


The debate over the failure of international aid to produce development, together with the current financial crisis, have added weight to arguments against development assistance.	关于国际援助无法带来发展的争论在目前的金融危机背景下已经扩大了反对发展援助观点的影响。


But the argument should not be about whether to provide aid – no one can question the many successes that aid has brought, or its importance in providing a safety net for those who would otherwise be left to suffer.	但争论的焦点不应集中在是否提供援助 —— 没有人能够质疑援助所带来的成功，以及援助在为受难者提供安全保障方面所发挥的重要作用。


The argument should instead be focused on how to get the most effective results out of aid, both for the recipients and for a donor country’s tax-payers. Aid, I believe, is best focused on infrastructure – the bridges, roads, Internet cables, and power stations that will help our economies to grow and allow us to trade more easily with each other.	相反，焦点应集中在怎样使援助发挥最大的效果，既解决受助者的燃眉之急，也无愧于捐助国纳税人的付出。 我认为，基础设施是援助的最佳领域，包括桥梁、道路、网络电缆和发电站，这些设施在推动经济发展的同时，会让我们的相互贸易更加轻松。


Accompanying this should be a focus on the “software” of development – health and education.	与此相应的应当是对健康和教育等发展“软件”的关注。


If aid satisfies basic governance conditionality and is directed at these vital areas, Africa will have a far greater chance of progressing.	如果援助能在满足基本治理条件的同时投向这些关键领域，推动非洲发展的可能性将会大得多。


For too long there has been international dismay at the state of governance in Africa; corruption and at times a complete lack of accountability are blamed for all of Africa’s ills.	很长时间以来国际上一直对非洲的执政状况深感失望。 人们把非洲的问题归咎于腐败，有时是彻底缺乏问责制度。


Although this is largely the case, no one can claim that Africans have a monopoly on governance failures.	虽然这种说法大体准确，但没有人能说治理不善的情况只在非洲才有。


The current financial crisis offers a perfect example, as it was poor governance in the banking sector that brought so many of the world’s great economies to their knees.	目前这场金融危机就是个完美的例子，因为对银行业监管不利，才导致如此众多的世界经济大国陷入到困境之中。


Moreover, while the international community is quick to pounce on African leaders for governance failures, it seems less enthusiastic about examining its role in the flight of African assets.	此外，国际社会在抓住非洲领导人治理错误不放的同时，似乎对审视自己在非洲资产流失中所起的作用并不那么热衷。


Europe and America were slow to enact legislation barring their companies from bribing foreign government officials in return for mining concessions or other advantages, and there has been limited enforcement of the rules.	欧洲和美国在立法禁止本国企业贿赂外国政府官员，以换取采矿特许权或其他利益的问题上行动迟缓，对规则的执行力度也非常有限。


Similarly, European and American banks keep the resources that are looted from Africa.	同样，欧洲和美国的银行也从非洲掠夺了大量的资源。


Then there is the unresolved problem of trade barriers.	此外还有悬而未决的贸易壁垒问题。


If African products are forced to compete in markets skewed toward European and American producers, Africans do not have a fair chance to develop.	如果非洲产品被迫在倾向欧美制造商的市场上参与竞争，非洲就没有得到经济发展的公平机会。


The issue of trade barriers speaks directly to the question of whether there is a genuine international commitment to Africa’s development.	贸易壁垒问题直接反映了国际社会是否真心诚意地致力于非洲的经济发展。


Finally, there is the problem of limited resources for international peacekeeping operations in Africa – always with disastrous results.	最后还有国际维和行动在非洲资源紧缺的问题 —— 这一问题常常会带来灾难性的后果。


In my own country, Sudan, and its western state of Darfur, African Union (AU) troops try to protect civilians.	在我的祖国苏丹，以及苏丹西部的达尔富尔，非洲联盟（ AU ）派驻的部队竭尽全力对平民给予保护。


While the AU is providing soldiers to police the conflict, the United Nations and the international community have been tasked with providing resources and equipment, which are widely viewed as inadequate.	在非盟派遣士兵控制冲突的同时，资源和设备则由联合国和国际社会负责提供，而人们普遍认为这两样处于严重的短缺状态。


No one denies that Africa has many problems.	没有人否认非洲面临许多问题。


But those problems should not be allowed to obscure the continent’s many success stories – much less to be defined as Africa’s alone.	但那些问题也不应使非洲众多的成功事实变得黯然失色 —— 更不应该被定为属非洲所独有。


The Other Half of the Peace Process	和平进程的另一半


PRINCETON - American officials usually spend enormous energy highlighting the “process” in the Middle East “peace process.”	普林斯顿—美国的官员们通常不遗余力地强调中东“和平进程”中的“进程”。


Only in the last 18 months of a second term president or following a military engagement in the Middle East does the United States actually start to concern itself with “peace.”	只有在连任总统的最后18个月任期或在中东的武装接触之后，美国才开始真正关心起“和平”。


This pattern seems to be holding true for next week’s US-sponsored Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, Maryland.	这种模式似乎也表现在美国主办的，将于下周在马里兰州的安纳波利斯举行的中东和平会议上。


The difference now is that, unlike the Madrid Conference after the 1991 American-led Gulf War, the current effort is coming after a perceived American defeat in Iraq.	而与1991年在美国领导的海湾战争之后所召开的马德里会议不同，这次的会议是在公认美国在伊拉克的努力失败的情况下召开的。


Assuming that the Bush administration is serious in its current efforts, the US must have a Plan B in case the talks fail.	假设布什政府召开这次会议的目的是严肃的，那么美国就必须要有一个“B计划”以备和谈破裂之需。


For Palestinians, the main concern is to avoid negative repercussions if they do.	对巴勒斯坦人而言，他们主要关注的是如何避免和谈（一旦）破裂所带来的负面影响。


Unlike former President Bill Clinton, who blamed Yassir Arafat for the failure of the Camp David talks in 2000, the Bush administration must honor its commitment not to point fingers or allow either side to use failure to advance its strategic goals.	与将2000年戴维营和谈破裂的责任归咎于阿拉法特的克林顿总统不同，布什政府必须实践承诺，不责备任何一方，也不允许任何一方以和谈破裂为由推进自己的战略目标。


Palestinian negotiators have always had to balance three issues: historic rights, current realities, and the price of using their negative power.	巴勒斯坦的谈判者们总是不得不在三件事情上保持平衡：历史权利、目前现实和行使否决权的代价。


For Palestinians, the code words for historic rights –liberating Palestinian land, securing the right of return for refugees, and insisting on a truly independent state – are “international legitimacy.”	对于巴勒斯坦人而言，历史权利（解放巴勒斯坦的土地，确保难民重返家园的权利，并坚持一个真正独立国家的原则）的代码是“国际合法性”。


For both the PLO and Hamas, this refers to various UN resolutions and international public opinion, which have amounted to little more than lip service on the part of Western powers and Arab and Islamic leaders, whose statements raise false hopes, enticing Palestinian negotiators to harden their positions.	对于巴解组织和哈马斯而言，它所指的是各种联合国决议和国际公共舆论，这些对于各西方大国和阿拉伯及伊斯兰的领导人而言不过是纸上谈兵。 他们的声明只会引发不切实际的希望，从而让巴勒斯坦谈判者们坚定自己的立场。


The current realities that the Palestinians must reckon with include their strategic, political, and economic imbalance vis-à-vis Israel and the US, the reality of occupation, and the challenges of diaspora life.	巴勒斯坦人必须承认的现实情况包括他们面对以色列和美国在战略、政治和经济上的不平衡，被占领的事实和颠沛流离的生活所带来的挑战。


For example, Israel’s harsh policies to confront the 1987 intifada , coupled with the boycott of the PLO by oil-rich Arab countries (because of its failure to oppose Saddam Hussein’s occupation of Kuwait) formed a potent reality check for the Palestinian leadership.	例如，以色列针对1987年抗暴起义的强硬政策，加上富产石油的阿拉伯国家对巴解组织的联合抵制（因为该组织没有反对萨达姆占领科威特）就是巴勒斯坦的领导层所要应对的严酷现实。


Finally, Palestinian negotiators must consider the consequences of using their most valuable bargaining chip – the ability to reject a perceived bad deal – in terms of its direct effect on Palestinians and the strong possibility of continued expansion of Jewish settlements on Palestinian lands.	最后，巴勒斯坦的谈判者们还必须考虑到使用他们最为宝贵的谈判筹码—拒绝接受不平等协议的权利—所产生的后果，特别是对巴勒斯坦人所产生的直接影响和犹太人定居点在巴勒斯坦土地上继续扩张的极大可能性。


The late Haider Abdel Shafi repeatedly stated one of the major problems in the Oslo Accords, namely that it didn’t secure the halt of settlement expansion in the interim period or if the final status talks failed.	已去世的Haider Abdel Shafi反复强调了《奥斯陆协议》的主要问题之一，即它未能确保在和谈进行期间及（一旦）破裂之后停止定居点的扩张。


At Camp David II, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak cleverly insisted that the first clause of his offer included acceptance of the end of the conflict, which was a problem for Palestinians, given that historic rights remained unresolved.	在第二次戴维营和谈中，前以色列总理巴拉克聪明地坚持他的出价第一条是接受终止冲突状态。 而这对于巴勒斯坦人来说则是一个问题，因为他们的历史权利仍然没有解决。


Arafat used his negative power and blocked a settlement, but he couldn’t predict the consequences.	阿拉法特使用了他的否决权令决议未获通过，但他却没有预见到此举所带来的后果。


This time, Palestinian negotiators insist that they do not plan to engage in substantive negotiations.	这一次，巴勒斯坦谈判者坚持说他们不准备进行实质性的谈判。


They argue that the positions acceptable in Taba (following the failure of Camp David II) must be the basis of any agreement, and that what needs to be negotiated now is the timetable for implementation.	他们认为在塔巴（第二次戴维营谈判破裂以后）所能接受的立场必须作为任何新协议的基础，因此现在需要谈判的就是一份实施的时间表。


Backed by a reasonable Arab peace plan, they will insist that there is already a worldwide consensus on restoring the 1967 borders (with mutual adjustments of equal size and quality), the need for a fair agreement on dealing with refugees, and a formula to share Jerusalem.	在一份合理的阿拉伯和平计划的支持下，他们将会坚持认为重新恢复1967年的边界（双方都在同等质量上进行了调整）已经是世界范围内的共识，需要就难民问题达成公平的协议，和建立一种共享耶路撒冷的方式。


As a result, Palestinian negotiators have reversed their position on the step-by-step approach to negotiations – an approach that proved disastrous, as it was exploited by radicals on both sides and gave the Israelis time to build more illegal settlements.	最终，巴勒斯坦的谈判者们改变了对步步为营的谈判方式的立场—这种方式被证明是灾难性的，因为它不但被双方的激进分子利用，还给了以色列建立更多犹太定居点的时间。


They insist that a broad agreement (in writing) must be reached before the talks.	他们坚持在和谈进行之前必须达成一份框架协议（起草中）。


Fears abound among Palestinians of another spasm of violence if no agreement is reached before Annapolis and this round of talks fails.	巴勒斯坦人对一旦在安纳波利斯和谈之前达不成协议或这一轮谈判破裂之后可能出现的另一波暴力风潮深感担忧。


But what is crucially important for Palestinians is that, whatever the outcome, new settlements must not be built and land expropriation must end.	但对于他们而言，至关重要的是不论和谈结果如何，新的定居点决不能再建且征用土地也必须停止。


US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said that the creation of a Palestinian state is a component of US national security.	美国国务卿赖斯曾说建立巴勒斯坦国是美国国家安全的组成部分。


But a Palestinian state will not appear now or in ten years if Israel continues build settlements in areas slated to be part of it.	但如果以色列继续在本已划给巴勒斯坦建国的土地上继续修建定居点，那么巴勒斯坦国现在或在今后的十年里都不会出现。


The Other Palestinian Revolution	巴勒斯坦的另一场革命


The euphoria that has, for over a week, greeted Mahmoud Abbas's election as President of the Palestinian Authority was perhaps justified.	马哈茂德·阿巴斯成功当选巴勒斯坦民族权力机构组织执委会主席，令人们欢欣鼓舞长达一周。


But now it is time for a clear-eyed assessment of what lies before Palestinians, Israelis, and, perhaps more importantly, for the wider Arab world.	也许这并不为过，但现在却是时候来头脑清醒地来确定一下巴勒斯坦人、以色列人、以及更为重要的阿拉伯世界当前面临的问题了。


Such an assessment requires acknowledging that the election was far from flawless: Hamas and Islamic Jihad boycotted the poll, and Marwan Barghouti, a fellow Fatah member with Abbas and the one candidate who could seriously have challenged him, was ungently persuaded by the movement's leadership to withdraw his candidacy in order to present a unified front.	要做出正确的确定，就必须承认此次选举绝非完美无瑕：哈马斯和伊斯兰圣战组织联合抵制选举； 而为了保证对外联合阵线，法塔赫领导层紧急劝说与阿巴斯同为法塔赫成员的马尔万·巴尔古提，也是能对阿巴斯构成严重威胁的候选人，使其放弃参选。


Moreover, Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) succeeded in getting the dozen or so Palestinian security services and militias under his control. This guaranteed his victory, though the parades of armed men brandishing guns at his rallies were not exactly what democratic norms call for.	此外，阿巴斯（也称阿布·马赞）成功将约十二个巴勒斯坦安全服务机构和民兵组织收之麾下，这一点也保证了他的胜利，尽管那些挥舞着枪支出现在阿巴斯集会上的武装人员游行队伍并非民主规范标准所提倡的。


Yet the fact remains that after decades of Yasir Arafat's autocratic rule, and despite the obvious constraints of continued Israeli occupation, the Palestinians did elect a leader in a relatively free and competitive election.	在历经了亚瑟·阿拉法特长达数载的独裁统治后，尽管以色列的持续占领还有诸多明显限制，巴勒斯坦此次确实是在一个相对自由、公平竞争的环境中选举出了一名领袖。 巴勒斯坦民族权力机构的法律规定，不能在被占领情况下举行选举。


For years, Arafat avoided holding elections, as required by the laws of the Palestinian Authority, under the pretense that they cannot be held under occupation: but, lo and behold, two months after his demise, an election was held - and with resounding success.	多年来，阿拉法特总是籍此来回避举行选举； 但是，你看，就在阿拉法塔去世后两个月，就举行了一场选举，并且盛况空前。


The presidential election will obviously serve as a catalyst for renewed, and possibly more successful, negotiations with Israel.	显然，此次选举将大大促进重新巴以恢复和谈，并且还很有可能将和谈推向成功。


But the impact of the Palestinian vote will also be watched closely in the Arab world, because what happened in the West Bank and Gaza is unparalleled in the annals of Arab politics.	但是由于发生在约旦河西岸和加沙地带的事件是阿拉伯政治史上前所未有的，因此阿拉伯世界对巴勒斯坦此次投票的影响保持着密切关注。


Abbas will now bask in the glow of having been elected. Nothing like this has happened in any Arab country.	阿巴斯现在还能继续沉浸在获选的喜悦中，而这在其他的阿拉伯国家是前所未有的。


Indeed, Abbas is now the only Arab leader who came to power in a more or less free election.	事实上，阿巴斯是目前为止唯一一个在一场多少还算自由的选举中上台执政的阿拉伯领导人。


Is Palestinian society so different from other Arab societies?	是巴勒斯坦社会与其他阿拉伯社会不同吗？


Not really.	不全是。


But there were several unique factors in the Palestinian context.	但是巴勒斯坦有几个独一无二的环境因素：首先，外来压力巨大。


First, there was strong external pressure: confronted and exasperated by Arafat's deviousness and autocratic style, the United States and the European Union clearly told the Palestinians that any future support for their quest for independence would depend on their going through a reasonably acceptable democratic process.	面对阿拉法特的诡计多端、专制独裁的统治风格，被激怒的美国和欧盟明确告诉巴勒斯坦，他们是否能获得争取独立的支持，将取决于他们是否实现能被适度接受的民主进程。


Second, most Palestinians perceived that their ability to go through such a democratic process was itself a significant step in their struggle against Israel.	其次，大多数巴勒斯坦人将他们是否能实现这样一个民主进本身看作反对以色列占领斗争中的关键一步。


Finally, Palestinians have been exposed not only to the obvious hardships of occupation while living under Israeli rule for the better part of four decades; they were also able to experience, at close range, a liberal democracy at work - a free press, an independent judiciary, and political pluralism.	最后一点，四十多年来，巴勒斯坦人民经历着领土被占的艰难和痛苦、大部分时间都生活在以色列法律下； 但他们同时也经历了，近距离感受到了，一个自由的民主体系如何工作——新闻自由，司法独立、政治多元。


The dialectic of occupation plays strange games, both with occupier and occupied.	占领的辩证性和占领者和被占领者玩了一个奇怪的游戏


The Palestinian elections were seen all over the Arab world on Al-Jazeera and other Arab TV channels.	巴勒斯坦大选通过卡塔尔卫星电视台Al-Jazeera和其他阿拉伯电视频道被全世界同时观看。


They must have focused people's minds on their own stunted political conditions.	他们一定已经引导人们将他们的关注点放在了他们各自发育不全的政治体系上。


If the Palestinians, under Israeli occupation, can choose their own leaders, why can't the same happen in Cairo or Damascus, in Ryadh or Algiers?	如果巴勒斯坦，在以色列的占领下，还能选择他们自己的领袖，为什么开罗、大马士革、利雅特或者阿尔及尔就不可以呢？


When the jubilation and the justly earned compliments for the Palestinians subside, both Arab rulers and Arab masses (the much hyped "Arab street") may start asking some hard questions.	当人们的欢腾喜悦之情褪去，巴勒斯坦应得的赞扬之辞逐渐远去，阿拉伯统治者和阿拉伯大众（大多被媒体称为“阿拉伯街道”）也许将开始问一些尖锐问题。


The Palestinians have shown that it is not true that an Arab society cannot progress towards representative institutions.	巴勒斯坦的行动已经表明阿拉伯社会不是不能够迈向代议机制。


So why can't this progress be emulated in other Arab societies?	因此，为什么其他的阿拉伯社会不能模仿这一进程呢？


Perhaps a time bomb has been planted under the thrones of Arab potentates - kings, emirs and presidents.	也许一颗定时炸弹已经被安置在了阿拉伯君主们——国王、酋长和总统们的权力宝座下。


While Iraq - an attempt to import democracy by force - is failing, the paradoxical conditions of an Arab democracy under Israeli occupation may be a threat that Arab rulers have not yet comprehended.	虽然伊拉克试图武力引进民主制的努力以失败告终，然而在以色列占领下阿拉伯民主制自相矛盾的状态也是阿拉伯统治者们还没有理解体会到的一个威胁。


The Other Switzerland	另一个瑞士


BRUSSELS – As policymakers scratch their heads and wonder how best to absorb different cultures and religions into Europe’s very distinct national societies, they could do worse than consider some new ideas being developed in Switzerland.	布鲁塞尔 —— 在决策者们为如何才能将各种文化和宗教融入到欧洲截然不同的民族社会中倍感挠头时，参考瑞士最近提出的某些新想法并不是最差的选择。


Switzerland, the country that recently voted to ban the construction of minarets on mosques?	瑞士，那个不久前投票禁止在清真寺顶建尖塔的国家？


Absolutely.	的确是这样。


It is time for Europe to adjust the way that it thinks about nationality, cultural roots, and how it deals with immigrants.	欧洲在国籍、文化起源和如何对待移民等方面的看法的确应该调整了。


In a world of increasing mobility, an aging Europe will badly need the immigrants of whom it is so frightened – and it should give them a voice in local politics soon (say, one year) after they arrive.	随着流动性越来越强，逐渐老龄化的欧洲迫切需要令它恐惧不已的移民的注入 —— 不仅如此，它还应该在移民抵达之后很快（比如一年时间内）将当地政治问题上的发言权交到他们手中。


After all, it is more important for taxpayers to participate in local politics than to sit on the sidelines waiting to be given the rights of native citizens.	归根结底，纳税人参与地方政治比置身事外坐等拿到公民权更重要。


Democratic participation is the best way to integrate people into society and make them feel that their opinions count, regardless of whether they have formal citizenship and thus the right to vote.	无论有没有正式国籍和投票权，民主参与都是让人融入社会、感觉有话语权的最佳方式。


I should declare a personal interest here: I was stateless for a time after my birth in Geneva.	我在此应该说明我的个人利益：我在瑞士出生后曾一度没有国籍。


My father was American, but naturalized too recently to hand his US citizenship on to me.	我的父亲是美国人，但因为归化时间太短还没有资格把美国国籍传给我。


I was born on Swiss soil, but that did not give me the right to a Swiss passport.	我出生在瑞士的土地上，但我并不因此享有申请瑞士护照的权利。


In the end, the Irish accepted me because that was my mother’s nationality.	最后，爱尔兰接受了我，那里是我母亲的祖国。


I have a framed copy of the Act of Parliament by Dail Eireann that was needed.	我保留了一份爱尔兰下院用镜框装裱的《国会法案》，这是入籍的时候需要用到的。


I have lived in Europe all my life, mostly in Belgium, but never in Ireland, and I have never voted, despite the fact that the Maastricht treaty entitles me to vote both in European elections and in Belgium’s local elections.	我终身生活在欧洲，多数时间都在比利时，但从没在爱尔兰生活过； 我也从未参与过投票，虽然《马斯特里赫特条约》规定我有权参加欧洲和比利时的国内选举。


I suppose that I belong to an expat generation that has not been educated to consider voting an essential right, if not a duty, and I regret that.	我觉得自己属于那种如果不把投票看成一项强制义务，也并不把它当作一种重要权利的老一代侨民，我也为此深感惋惜。


But voting in Belgium is compulsory, so once you have started there is no jumping ship without a fine or a good excuse.	但在比利时投票是一项必需履行的义务，因此一旦你在那里投过一次票，就不可能在不交罚款或找到好借口的情况下擅离职守。


Foreign voter participation is clearly bound to work best at a local level, where the issues are more concrete.	外国选民的参与显然在地方层面更为有效，因为地方大都讨论一些具体的事务。


That is where Switzerland demonstrates that giving foreigners a voice is good policy, one that also means teaching citizens to understand the benefits of open democracy.	也正是在这方面瑞士人证明赋予外国人话语权是一项明智的政策，这也意味着引导公民理解开放民主的益处。


The canton of Neuchatel (one of the 26 mini-states that comprise the Swiss confederation) lies alongside the French border.	纳沙泰尔州（组成瑞士联邦的 26 个小国之一）位于瑞法两国的边境线上。


Its official language is French, it has its own constitution, and it has created a highly efficient Multicultural Cohesion Service.	它的官方语言是法语，制定了自己的宪法，而且建立起了非常高效的多元文化融合服务。


The Council of Europe, which for 60 years has promoted European integration through human rights and culture, includes Neuchatel among 10 “intercultural” cities that it is studying for “best practice” policies and governance in multicultural societies.	致力于通过人权和文化推动欧洲融合长达 60 年之久的欧洲委员会将纳沙泰尔州纳入了 10 大“跨文化”城市的研究范畴，作为研究多元文化社会“最佳实践”政策和治理的对象。


In the case of Neuchatel, this includes the canton as well as the picturesque lakeside city.	以纳沙泰尔州为例，这不仅包括行政州，也包括风景如画的湖畔小城。


Unemployment is relatively low, despite hard times for its major industry – watch-making – and foreigners represent one-quarter of its 170,000 residents.	虽然主要行业 —— 制表业不太景气，但失业率相对较低，外国人占到了 170 ， 000 名居民的四分之一。


Much of Neuchatel’s progressive attitude toward foreign residents is attributable to one man, Thomas Facchinetti, who started a multicultural cohesion service 20 years ago and has steadily built it up.	纳沙泰尔州对外国居民的进步思想很大程度上应该归功于一个人，这个人的名字叫 托马斯·法基内蒂，这个人在二十年前首创并发展了多元文化融合服务。


Among his achievements is a Citizens’ Charter that is handed to every new resident to explain Swiss participatory democracy and lay out its rules.	他的功绩之一是向每位新居民颁发一份《公民宪章》，详细说明瑞士的参与民主和相关规则。


His offices also have an anti-racism service, offer well publicized access to inexpensive French classes, and distribute booklets on topics like forced marriages and headscarves.	他的办公室还提供反种族主义服务，开设尽人皆知的廉价法语课，并就强迫婚姻和该不该戴头巾等问题分发宣传手册。


The fact that Facchinetti himself is the lynchpin of the canton’s open-minded views may be seen as a weakness, but it is also its strength.	法基内蒂个人是该州开放观念的关键人物既是一种弱点，也是一种长处。


Tolerance has a face – the neat smiling figure of this son of Italian immigrants, who is easily accessible to the canton’s citizens.	宽容有一张人性化的面孔 —— 就是这位意大利移民后裔整洁可爱的笑脸，该州的民众走到哪里都能看到。


Partly as a result of his efforts, Neuchatel was one of the four cantons in Switzerland to vote against the ban on new minarets.	部分由于他的努力，纳沙泰尔州是瑞士四个对禁止修建尖塔投反对票的州之一。


If people are to feel committed to the place where they live, they must be allowed to influence decision-making, and that influence should not depend on nationality.	如果想让人们对自己的生活地有归属感，就必需允许他们影响决策，而这种影响是不能以国籍为前提的。


In Neuchatel, many naturalized citizens, including elected local councilors, retain their foreign passports for several reasons: among European Union passport-holders, doing so allows their children to study in the EU or to work there themselves.	纳沙泰尔州的许多归化移民，包括选举出来的地方委员出于若干原因保留了自己的外国护照：对欧洲护照持有者来说，这么做能让他们的子女在欧洲学习，让他们自己在欧洲工作。


Among non-EU citizens, it allows them to re-settle in their parents’ or grandparents’ country if they so desire.	而在非欧盟民众中间，这让可以让他们选择在父辈或祖辈的祖国重新定居。


No two countries, regions, or cities are the same.	没有两个国家、地区或者城市是完全相同的。


Geography, budgets, political systems, and the number and nature of its immigrants differ.	地理位置、财政状况、政治���度、移民的数量和性质都各不相同。


But where Neuchatel could serve as a model is in its hands-on attitude to helping foreigners fit in by making it easy for people to learn the local language, opening the voting booths to all, and encouraging foreigners to represent their country’s communities.	但纳沙泰尔之所以能够成为榜样，是因为它帮助外国人适应环境的实际态度，鼓励民众学习当地语言，向所有人开放投票点、并鼓励外国人代表各自国家的公民团体。


The Prion Puzzle	朊病毒之谜


ZURICH – The outbreak of mad cow disease in the United Kingdom, which ultimately led to the slaughter of 3.7 million cows and severely damaged the British cattle industry, began insidiously.	苏黎世—最终导致370万头牛被扑杀、重创英国畜牧业的疯牛病爆发极为隐秘。


In 1986, a UK cow developed an unknown brain disease.	1986年，一头英国母牛染上了一种未知的脑病。


The following year, tests revealed that the brain had been eroded by a myriad of small vacuoles, producing the sponge-like appearance that inspired the disease’s scientific name: bovine spongiform encephalopathy.	一年后，检查表明这头牛的大脑被大量小液泡腐蚀，形成海绵状的形态，于是这种病的学名被称为牛海绵状脑病。


Within a few months, cases began appearing throughout the country.	几个月之内，这种病开始在全英国出现。


A similar disease, called scrapie, was common in sheep, but had not previously been diagnosed in cows.	一种类似的被称为痒病的疾病在羊中间流行，但此前从未在牛身上发现症状。


And a nearly identical, invariably lethal disease, kuru, had ravaged the aboriginal people in Papua New Guinea throughout the twentieth century.	而在整个20世纪，一种几乎完全相同的致命疾病——库鲁病（kuru）在巴布亚新几内亚土著居民中间肆虐。


Both kuru and scrapie are infectious.	库鲁病和痒病都是传染病。


Kuru was transmitted through cannibalistic rituals that were commonplace in Papua New Guinea until the 1950’s.	库鲁病通过食人习俗传播，巴布亚新几内亚直到20世纪50年代一直有这种习惯。


Similarly, in the UK and elsewhere, healthy cattle were fed meat and bone meal made from infected cattle.	类似地，在英国和其他地方，健康的牛被喂以用病牛骨肉制作的斯料。


The resulting epizootic (animal epidemic) affected more than 280,000 cows.	由此引发的家畜传染病影响了28万多头牛。


At its peak in 1992, mad cow disease was claiming nearly 1,000 head of cattle weekly.	在1992年疯牛病高发期，每周都有近1000头牛报告发病。


Faced with a rapidly growing health crisis, the British authorities – equipped with little scientific understanding of the disease, and under pressure from a powerful industrial lobby – made a fatal mistake.	面对迅速发酵的健康危机，英国当局——对该病几无科学理解并处于强大的行业游说压力下——犯下了致命的错误。


Because scrapie had never been definitively linked to human disease, they assumed that infected cows were also innocuous.	由于痒病从未在人身上发现，他们认为被传染的牛也不会有什么威胁。


This assumption not only ignored the kuru tragedy; it also overlooked the hundreds of young people who had died of spongiform encephalopathy after receiving growth hormones extracted from human corpses.	这一假设不仅忽视了库鲁病悲剧，也忽视了数百例因注射从人类尸体提炼的生长激素而导致海绵状脑病最终致死的例子。


This mixture of hubris, ignorance, and subservience to commercial interests reached peak toxicity in 1990, when the UK’s agriculture minister, John Gummer, televised his daughter eating a hamburger, declaring that British beef was safe.	自大、无知和对商业利益的屈服在1990年引起了最大后果，当时，英国农业大臣约翰·古墨（John Gummer）用电视直播其女吃汉堡的镜头，宣布英国牛肉是安全的。


But British beef was not safe.	但英国牛肉是不安全的。


In late 1995, two young people were diagnosed with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease – a rare disease typically seen in elderly patients.	1995年末，两位年轻人被诊断为克雅二氏症，这是一种罕见的、通常见于老年人的疾病。


Post-mortem examinations of their brains revealed deposits of prions – the infectious agents that cause scrapie, kuru, and mad cow disease.	验尸官在他们的大脑中发现了朊病毒沉积，即痒病、库鲁病和疯牛病的病原。


But these were not the prions of classic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.	但它们并非典型克雅二氏症的朊病毒。


Since then, “new variant” Creutzfeltdt-Jakob disease has claimed roughly 300 lives.	自此以后，“新型”克雅二氏症夺走了约300人的生命。


As the tragedy unfolded, however, scientists gained a greater understanding of the disease.	不过，随着悲剧的展开，科学家对这种病有了更多的认识。


Prions seem to defy all conventional wisdom, surviving pressure-cooking, irradiation, and even incineration at 340°C for four hours – treatments that are routinely and reliably used to deactivate all known viruses and bacteria.	朊病毒是一种否定所有传统智慧的存在，它可以经历高压烹煮、辐射甚至4小时的340℃焚煮而不死——这些手段足以对付所有已知的病毒和细菌。


Furthermore, prions lack their own genes.	此外，朊病毒没有它们自己的基因。


The prion gene is provided by the infected individual, in whom it resides in an innocuous state.	朊病毒基因由其以无害状态居住其中被传染个体提供。


The infectious prion then hijacks the body’s machinery, reprogramming it into a willing executioner of prion replication.	传染性朊病毒会劫持宿主的机能，对其进行重新编排，使之成为朊病毒复制器刽子手。


Since the disease’s outbreak, it has been revealed that many common ailments – including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease – have similar properties.	自该病爆发以来，人们已经意识到，多种普通疾病——包括阿尔茨海默氏症和帕金森病——都有类似的性质。


While no cure has been found, some progress has been made, particularly on early detection of prions, which had been a daunting problem.	尽管尚未找到治疗方法，但人们已经有了一些进步，特别是在原本让人束手无策的朊病毒早期检查方面。


Sensitive detection of pathogens, such as HIV, typically relies on the presence of nucleic acids (DNA or RNA), which are absent in prions.	对病原体（如HIV）的相敏检测通常是根据核酸（DNA和RNA）的表现，而这在朊病毒体内是没有的。


Recently, however, effective methods for amplifying prions have been developed, which could enable detection of the pathogen before it can damage its host.	不过，最近人们开发出了有效的放大朊病毒的办法，可以在其伤害宿主之前找到病原体。


Moreover, there is hope that an effective vaccination can be developed.	此外，有效的疫苗也有望开发成功。


Introducing an innocuous version of a pathogen into the body causes the immune system to produce antibodies, which will neutralize the “wild” pathogen if it enters the body later.	将无害病原体注入体内能刺激免疫系统产生抗体，随后当“野”病原体进入体内，抗体就能把它消灭掉。


A decade ago, my laboratory showed that an anti-prion antibody could significantly delay – and, in some cases, prevent – infection in mice that had been exposed to prions.	一年前，我的实验室证明，一种朊病毒抗体能够显著推迟——在一些病例中能够防止——暴露于朊病毒之中的小白鼠的传染。


But several problems have emerged.	但一些问题也随之产生。


The host’s body produces its own version of the prion protein, and it is difficult to create a high-quality antibody against a body’s own components.	宿主的身体产生了自己的朊病毒蛋白质，而创造针对宿主本身成分的高质量抗体是很困难的。


As a result, rather than trying to induce immunity, researchers must develop prefabricated anti-prion antibodies that can be delivered directly to patients.	因此，研究者的目标不应该是诱导免疫，而是开发可直接用于病患的预制朊病毒抗体。


This solution might work for related diseases like Alzheimer’s, but it has its own array of problems, including the difficulty of driving such antibodies from the injection site to the brain.	这一疗法或许可以用于治疗阿尔茨海默等相关疾病，但也有其自身的问题，包括如何将这些抗体从注射出运送到大脑。


Severe side effects in animals, meanwhile, may prohibit the antibodies’ use in humans altogether.	与此同时，在动物身上显示的严重副作用可能导致抗体根本无法在人体使用。


Another possibility could be to eradicate prion diseases in livestock by removing the host’s prion gene.	另一种可行之道是通过消灭宿主朊病毒基因根除牲畜朊病毒疾病。


The Swiss scientist Charles Weissmann demonstrated this using mice in a series of experiments two decades ago.	20年前，瑞士科学家查尔斯·威斯曼（Charles Weissmann）使用一系列老鼠实验证明了这一点。


Using recently developed “zinc finger nuclease” technology, any given gene can be removed from an animal’s DNA.	使用最新开发的“锌指核酸酶”技术，我们可以在动物DNA中抹除任何给定的基因。


In fact, prion-free sheep and cows have already been created.	事实上，不携带朊病毒的羊和牛已经被培育出来。


These animals cannot host infectious prions.	这些动物不能作为传染性朊病毒宿主。


While the quality of their meat remains to be assessed, they can provide a safe source of biological agents – such as therapeutic antibodies and growth factors – for use in human medicine.	它们的肉质仍有待评估，但可以为用于人类的药物提供安全的生物制剂源——如治疗性抗体和生长素。


The Ozone Mafia	臭氧犯罪组织


Now that the Kyoto Protocol has been ratified, with even Russia belatedly signing on, a threat is emerging against an earlier landmark in international environmental protection – the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol for defending the stratospheric ozone layer.	即使俄罗斯的签名姗姗来迟，现在《京都议定书》已经通过，但是一种有违国际环境保护早些时候的里程碑——保卫平流层臭氧层的《维也纳公约》和《蒙特利尔议定书》——的威胁正在逐渐显现。


The threat comes from an unlikely source: organized crime.	这种威胁来自于一种不太可能的源头：有组织犯罪。


The reason is simple.	原因很简单。


To protect the stratospheric ozone layer, international agreements have been reached to ban the use and trade of the ozone-destroying chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s).	为了保护平流层臭氧层，国际上已经达成一致，禁止买卖和使用破坏臭氧的化学剂：氯氟碳（CFC’s）。


In order to replace these chemicals with others that are more benign, the equipment in which they are used – like freezers, coolers, and units for foam plastic production – must be substituted for new ones.	为了能够用其他更为温和的化学剂代替它，使用氯氟碳所需的设备——诸如冷冻器、冷却器和泡沫塑料生产单位——也必须以新换旧。


But it’s much cheaper, although forbidden, to use the old equipment and refill them with CFC’s when needed than to buy new machines and use the more environmentally benign but more costly alternatives.	尽管在需要的时候使用旧设备并用CFC’s再充入设备遭到禁止，但是比起买新机器和使用更为环保温和却更加昂贵的替换品，这便宜多了。


As with any ban, a market was thus created – and with it a business opportunity for well organized and environmentally reckless criminals.	随着禁令，一个市场因此而产生了——随之而来的是为组织有序、不考虑环境的罪犯们所提供的一个商机。


Organized crime is constantly on the lookout for such opportunities, and it continues to find them.	有组织犯罪对这样的机会垂涎已久，并且正在不断寻找到这样的机会。


So it is no surprise that CFC or freon smuggling has developed without much attention, and risks jeopardizing the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol.	因此，难怪走私CFC或者氟利昂在人们没有注意的情况下发展起来，对《维也纳公约》和《蒙特利尔议定书》造成危害。


These agreements are hailed as great successes, and annual reports summarizing official statistics are published showing that the use of CFC continues to decrease.	这些协议被誉为伟大的成功，公之于众的年度报告总结了官方数据并显示CFC的使用数量正在下降。


The content of chlorine (from decay of CFC’s) in the stratosphere has leveled off, and two years ago the ozone hole over the Antarctic was the smallest in decades (and broken up into two).	平流层的氯气含量（来自CFC’s的变质）已经稳定，两年前出现在南极上空的臭氧洞是数十年来最小的（并且已经分裂成两个）。


However, new reports show a thinning of the ozone layer over the Arctic, and last year’s Antarctic ozone hole was as large and deep as ever.	然而，新的报告显示南极上空的臭氧层正越来越稀薄，并且去年南极上空的臭氧洞与以前一样大一样深。


There is no way of telling yet whether these represent mere fluctuations in a slow recovery process or a break in the positive trend.	目前我们还没有办法预知这些表示着一个缓速恢复过程中的波动还是积极趋势的暂停。


Is the volume of illicit CFC trading so large that it is now a factor of real importance?	非法的CFC交易数量已经如此之大以至于它现在成为了一个真正重要的因素了吗？


As with illicit drugs, it is difficult to estimate the extent of smuggling operations.	就非法毒品而言，我们很难估算走私行为的范围之广。


A number of extensive catches have been made by national customs agencies, the largest in Japan, in recent years.	近几年来，各国海关总署开展了大量的广泛搜捕行动，最大规模的搜博行动发生在日本。


In most cases, the forbidden CFC’s have been labeled as permitted HFC’s (hydrogenfluorocarbons), but labels like “spray paint” and “lubricants” also have been used.	在大多数情况下，被禁的CFC被贴上了合法的HFC’s(氢氟烃)的标签，有时候还用“喷漆”和“润滑剂”的标签。


Ships and airplanes have been used for transport in this black-market trade.	轮船和飞机被这个黑市交易用来作运输工具。


The shipments caught by customs authorities mostly originate from free industrial zones, also called export-processing zones, in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Egypt.	被海关当局查获的货物大国来自中国、越南、泰国和埃及的自由工业区，也称为加工出口区。


In most parts of the world, customs agencies are not especially focused on CFC’s, and the compounds are not easy to distinguish from HFC’s without sophisticated analytical equipment.	在世界大部分地区，海关总署不仅仅要把重点特别放在CFC’s上，还有那些没有精密分析仪器就无法与HFC’s区分的化合物。


So it is reasonable to assume that the proportion of the total smuggled volume that is discovered is smaller than for narcotic drugs.	因此，可以由此推断，已发现的走私量占走私总量的百分比要比毒品走私的百分比小。


Complicated lines of transport using transit countries are often used.	走私经常使用过境国的复杂路线。


One such line, which is presumed to be significant, goes from Europe (Spain) via Singapore or Dubai, through India to Nepal or Bangladesh and back again to the market in India.	有一条被认为重要的线路，是从欧洲（西班牙）出发，经由新加坡或者杜拜，穿过印度到尼泊尔或孟加拉国，然后再次返回到印度内的市场。


Some features in the conventions for protecting the ozone layer constitute holes of a legal kind.	保护臭氧层的公约中的某些条例造就了一种合法的漏洞。


One is that industrial and developing countries march at different speeds when it comes to phasing out CFC’s.	其中之一就是，工业国家和发展中国家在逐步停止使用CFC’s问题上的脚步进度不一。


This means that what is banned in one country is permitted elsewhere.	这就意味着，在一个国家被严禁的东西在其他地方就是允许的。


Another problem is that there are no restrictions on the sale of old equipment that runs only on the banned substances.	另外一个问题是，没有任何措施对销售那些只能靠被禁物质运行的旧设备进行限制。


For example, freezers that require CFC’s can be freely exported from, say, Sweden, where they can no longer legally be refilled when required, to Egypt, where refilling is allowed.	比如，需要充入CFC’s的冷冻器能自由地从，比如瑞典，出口到埃及，在瑞典，这些冷冻器再也不能合法充入化学剂，而在埃及，这却是可以的。


The rapid increase of foam plastic production in export processing zones is thought to be based on their purchase of CFC-dependent production units from OECD countries.	出口加工区内快速增长的泡沫塑料生产被认为是建立在他们对来自OECD国家依靠CFC的生产单位的购买基础之上。


So, do such practices constitute a real threat to the conventions for protecting the stratospheric ozone, or are they “only” a factor that will delay the final phase-out of CFC’s within years or a decade?	因此，这些行为是给为保护平流层臭氧的公约制造了一个真正的威胁，还是“仅仅”只是一个延迟CFC’s在几年或十年中被逐渐停止使用的一个因素？


If the latter, that is bad enough, but the answer is not self-evident, and the whole question of organized crime and the illegal trade with CFC’s demands attention.	如果是后者的话，那真是糟糕透了，但是答案不言而喻，并且有组织犯罪以及CFC’s的非法交易问题需要引起注意。


Customs officials all over the world and fighters of organized crime have a new battle – this time for the environment – on their already busy hands.	全世界的海关官员以及有组织犯罪的打击者们现在又有了一场新的战役，尽管他们已经够忙了——这次是为了环境。


The Palin Charade	佩林之谜


New York – The selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate hit the United States like an electric storm.	纽约-佩林被选为麦凯恩的竞选搭档就像一场电子风暴席卷了美国。


To her legions of lipstick-waving fans on the right, Palin is a down-to-earth, God-fearing “hockey mom” whose moose hunting, evangelical faith, and even chaotic family life are all evidence that she is a real, typical American.	对于她那些挥舞着口红的拥趸们来说，佩林是一个朴实、虔诚的“冰球母亲”，她喜欢捕猎美洲驼鹿、信仰福音教义以及甚至有些混乱的家庭生活，都显示她是一个真实的并且典型的美国人。


To her equally frantic detractors on the left – and increasingly in the center – she is a frightening harbinger of a theocratic America, a mafia-style executrix of state business who lies about the connection of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to Iraq, mocks Barack Obama for his opposition to torturing prisoners, and defies subpoenas.	反过来，对于她那些同样激烈并且其人数越来越庞大的诋毁者而言，她令人恐惧地预示了一个神权政治的美国、一个将像黑手党一样处理国家事务的执行者，他们对9/11恐怖袭击与伊拉克的联系问题上撒谎、嘲笑奥巴马反对对犯人使用酷刑，另外还藐视传票。


Think of her as George W. Bush II, but in designer pumps.	我们可以把她想象成是女子版的布什。


Both groups are reacting to genuine evidence.	两大阵营的反应都来自确凿的证据。


Her supporters are responding to a potent set of symbols, and her detractors to an even more potent set of facts.	她的支持者看到了是一组非常有说服力的符号，而她的诋毁者看到的则是一组更有说服力的事实。


Palin’s symbolic appeal to a certain group of female voters is important to understand, and we must respect the rage and hunger that it reflects.	佩林对于许多女性选民而言所象征的主张是非常值得我们去认识的，并且我们必须重视它所反映的愤怒和渴望。


The subtext of that appeal is class.	这种主张的潜台词就是阶级。


Working-class white women in America have had their talents exploited and undervalued for as long as the nation has functioned.	美国的工人阶级白人女性的才能自从这个国家成立以来就一直受到了剥削和低估。


While affluent white women, or women of any background who managed to get a high-quality education – America’s Hillary Clintons, Madeline Albrights, and Condoleezza Rices – broke through the glass ceiling, and even have the women’s movement to lionize them, working-class white women have watched their rise with understandable resentment.	尽管一些富有的白人女性或者成功地获得高质量教育的其他背景的女性，就像希拉里、奥尔布赖特还有赖斯，冲过了无形的晋升障碍，甚至通过女权运动成为了名人，但是工人阶级白人女性却可以理解地对她们地位的上升抱以敌视的态度。


Their more affluent peers hire women like them to do the dirty work, or else they have had to deal with stagnant minimum-wage pay in the US labor market’s “pink-collar” or service-industry ghetto.	她们那些更加富有的女同胞雇佣她们这样的女性去干脏活，或者她们不得不去美国劳工市场的“粉领”集聚地或服务业工作，接受永远停滞不动的最最微薄的工资。


Their ceiling is made of concrete, and it is pitched far lower over their talents and their mobility.	她们头顶的障碍是用混凝土制成的，并且远远低于她们的才能和流动性。


Above all, they have been excluded, practically and symbolically, from the country’s political discourse, and are treated regularly with condescension by politicians.	总之，她们在实际上以及符号上都被排斥在这个国家的政治话语权之外，并且常常遭到政客们傲慢的对待。


Race, too, is a factor.	种族也是一个因素。


While reports are surfacing that Palin told a group of African-Americans that she did not have to hire black people, working-class white women often understand their own experience in terms of racial hostility.	尽管有报道揭露佩林曾对一群非洲裔美国人说她并不是必须要雇佣黑人，工人阶级白人女性在种族敌视上常常理解她们自身的经历。


They perceive an underclass that they believe receives benefits denied to them and a thriving economy in the developing world that siphons off well-paying blue-collar jobs.	她们认为有一个底层阶级获得了她们所无法获得的利益，并且发展中国家蓬勃发展的经济夺去了工资很高的蓝领阶层的工作。


So, when Sarah Palin is escorted into the media limelight, she becomes the symbolic revenge fantasy of many of those silenced, exhausted factory workers and secretaries.	因此，当佩林被推到媒体的聚光灯下时，她成了那些没有机会表达自己的观点、筋疲力尽的工厂工人符号性的报复幻想。


To see a working-class white woman be picked to serve a heartbeat away from the US president resonates powerfully with them.	看到一位工人阶级白人女性被挑选为美国总统的副手，引起了他们巨大的共鸣。


Think of the appeal of films like Thelma and Louise or Working Girl, in which the leading character is a gutsy, exploited secretary who, trampled by a snooty female Ivy League boss, nonetheless manages to end up with the dream job, the dream guy, and the corner office.	想一想《末路狂花》或者《打工女郎》这样的电影所发出的声音吧，其中的女主角都是一名大胆、受到压制的秘书，尽管受到某位高傲自大的来自常春藤联合会的女上司的欺压，然而最终都获得了梦寐以求的工作、梦想中的大男孩以及处于最佳位置的高级办公室。


Just about any woman who was not born into privilege, has small children at home, and is not a cannibal or a Satanist would elicit initial roars of approval from women in general, and surely from a group that has been silenced and trivialized for so long.	就像任何一个生来并不享有特权、家里有小孩需要抚养并且并非是食人肉者或者撒丹的崇拜者的女人一开始肯定会受到所有女性以及一个长久以来一直被压制和蔑视的群体的赞同。


When you’ve been making the coffee forever, it’s nice to imagine leading the free world.	如果你以前一直在家里煮咖啡，想象能够领导自由世界一定是件美妙的事情。


That said, Palin’s sinking approval ratings show that, while such women thrill to symbolic validation, they are not fools.	然而佩林持续下跌的支持率同样表明尽管这些女性为符号的正当性感到兴奋，她们也并不是傻瓜。


They have begun to notice how Palin is trotted out like a model at an auto show to be introduced to heads of state as if they are local car dealers, and how the media are allowed to take pictures but not ask questions (“That’s me with Henry Kissinger!”).	她们已经开始注意到佩林怎样在一次车展上像一名模特一样小步走向前，被介绍给这个国家的领袖们，似乎他们是一些当地的汽车分销商，而媒体又是怎样只被允许拍照却不允许提问（“那是我跟基辛格拍的照片！


They also notice that the economy is imploding, while Iraq is calming down only because the US is paying insurgents and al-Qaeda sympathizers the equivalent of a monthly car payment per person not to kill its soldiers.	”）。 她们还注意到经济正在面临崩溃，而伊拉克平静下来只是因为美国向暴动者和基地组织的同情者每人支付相当于每月一辆车的钱，以换取他们不杀美国的士兵。


Moreover, as Palin’s political persona takes shape, it looks increasingly alarming.	此外，当佩林的政治角色慢慢开始为大家所认识时，情况看上去更加令人震惊。


The problem is not just that the McCain campaign has surrounded her with veterans of the Bush-Cheney cabal (Karl Rove’s acolytes and operatives now write her speeches and manage her every move).	问题不仅仅在于麦凯恩的竞选团队在她的周围安排了布什和切尼阵营里的老手（卡尔罗夫手下的随从和职员现在负责为她撰写演讲稿以及安排她的每一项活动）。


It’s also that she believes that God set her legislative agenda in Alaska, and that she has failed to venture much beyond the Discovery Channel when it comes to foreign travel.	还有她认为是上帝在安排她在阿拉斯加的立法议程，而在对外国的了解方面她的知识恐怕仅来自于探索频道。


Meanwhile, the elephant in the room is the fact that dermatologists are confirming that the form of cancer for which McCain has been treated has an actuarial survival rate of two to four years for a person his age.	此外，一个被忽略的事实是皮肤病专家正在认定麦凯恩曾接受过治疗的癌症对于像他这样年龄的人来说，按保险计算的生存时间为二至四年。


So, as the disturbing prospect of a long Palin presidency starts to set in, she doesn’t look so great to working-class white women anymore.	因此，当由佩林长期担任总统的令人担忧的前景开始逐渐被人们所认识时，她对于工人阶级白人女性来说就不再那么伟大了。


So, what should this brief Palin bubble teach us?	那么，这场短暂的佩林泡沫教给了我们什么呢？


In becoming the poster girl for a re-branded continuation of the Bush administration, Palin is showing herself to have much in common with glossy faux-populists like Eva Peron or Denmark’s anti-immigrant leader Pia Kjærsgaard.	在成为只不过是换上另一张标签的布什政府的延续的海报女郎时，佩林显示出她自己与贝隆夫人或者丹麦的反移民运动领袖柯丝高这些老于世故的伪民粹主义者有相当多的共同点。


What we should learn – for next time and for every time to come – is that great leaders and great dreams are being overlooked in the women who prepare our food, process our Internet orders, and wipe up the spills in our hospitals.	下一次以及以后的每一次我们应该认识到的是我们忽视了那些为我们做饭、在因特网上为我们下订单以及在我们的医院里擦拭病人溅出的液体的女性也可以成为伟大的领导人以及她们伟大的梦想。