The central bank does need to have a view, updated over time, about the exchange rate’s appropriate range, and it should signal when it thinks the currency is moving in the wrong direction.	关于汇率的适宜范围，央行的确需要建立一个与时俱进的立场。 并且当它认为货币朝着错误的方向行进时，还应该发出信号。


Once the monetary rules of the game incorporate the real exchange rate, and assuming that fiscal policy remains supportive, investors can look forward to a less volatile and more competitive currency.	一旦货币游戏的规则中纳入了实际汇率，假设财政政策仍然支持，那么投资者们就有望看到一种波动性更小而竞争力更强的货币。


This will mean more investment in tradable industries, more employment overall, and faster growth.	这将意味着对可贸易产业部门的更多投资、更高的总体就业水平和更快的经济增长。


You will know you have succeeded when the United States’ Treasury Secretary comes knocking on your door saying that you are guilty of manipulating your currency.	当美国的财政部长敲开你家大门，告诉你你因操纵货币而有罪时，你就会明白你已经大功告成。


Race-Based Medicine?	以种族为基础的医学？


PALO ALTO – Race can undoubtedly be a tricky subject, with any suggestion of genetic differences among racial groups – beyond superficial characteristics like skin color – potentially invoking memories of the nineteenth-century eugenics movement and its eventual role in Nazi ideology.	帕洛阿尔托——种族无疑是一个棘手的问题，除了像肤色之外的表面特征，提起种族群体间的任何遗传差异都有可能唤起人们对19世纪优生运动及其最终在纳粹意识形态中所起作用的回忆。


Now, with drug companies increasingly seeking to develop medications that target particular racial groups, the long-taboo subject of racial genetics has reemerged.	现在，随着制药公司越来越频繁地试图针对特定种族群体研发药物，一直为人们所避讳的种族遗传学问题再度被人们提起。


Much of the current debate centers on whether race should be a criterion for inclusion in clinical trials – and, by extension, whether drug labeling should mention race specifically.	目前争论的核心问题是种族是否应当被纳入临床试验的标准——以及推而广之，药品标签是否应该特别提到种族问题。


Although the issues are complicated, the solution is simple: follow the data.	这一复杂问题的解决办法其实非常简单：那就是让数据说话。


In fact, clinical trials are not intended to demonstrate the effectiveness of a treatment (drug, medical device, or other intervention) in a completely random sample from the general population. Rather, researchers “enrich” the study population by using a characteristic, such as age or laboratory-test results, to select a subset of patients in whom the intervention’s effects will likely be easier to detect than they would be in an unfiltered population.	事实上，临床试验的宗旨并不是显示某种治疗（包括药物、医疗设备或其他干预方法）对普通人群中完全随机抽取的样本是否有效，相反，科研人员以年龄或实验室检查结果等某些特点来“浓缩”被研究群体，并从中筛选出比未经过滤人员更容易显示疗效的那部分患者。


In recent years, “biomarkers,” such as certain DNA sequences or the presence of a particular drug receptor, have become increasingly important indicators for determining eligibility for clinical trials.	近年来，特定DNA序列或带有某种药物受体的“生物指标”已经成为确定临床试验资格的重要标准。


This approach is not new.	这算不上什么新方法。


For example, scientists have known for decades that certain drugs can cause severe and precipitous anemia in people with a genetic deficiency of the enzyme G6PD.	比方说，几十年来科学家一直知道某些药物可能在G6PD酶缺乏的遗传缺陷者身上引发严重的急性贫血。


More recently, researchers have learned that certain cancer drugs are ineffective in fighting tumors containing the mutated variant of the gene KRAS.	最近研究人员又发现某些癌症药物在对抗含KRAS基因变异的肿瘤时没有效果。


Such discoveries have enhanced researchers’ ability to enrich study populations with patients who are likely to benefit from the drug, while sparing from any possible side effects of exposure those patients who are unlikely to benefit.	上述发现让科研人员可以选择取得疗效机率更大的患者进入到研究小组，同时避免让可能疗效不佳的患者出现副作用。


Enrichment thus enables researchers to strengthen clinical trials’ “statistical power,” that is, the probability of detecting differences, if any exist, between study groups.	科研人员借此强化了临床试验的“统计能力”，也就是了解不同实验组之间的差异概率。


Given that a larger number of subjects or iterations enhances an experiment’s ability to detect all of the relevant effects, which bolsters confidence in the result, outcomes of small studies tend to imply significant uncertainty – unless the intervention’s effects are potent.	鉴于抽取大量对象或反复操作能更好地显示试验的所有效果并提升人们对试验结果的信心，因此除非疗效非常明显，小规模研究结果往往带有很大的不确定性。


Enrichment allows researchers to perform smaller, more informative trials by helping them to design studies that will show a high “relative treatment difference” between the drug and whatever it is being compared to (often a placebo, but sometimes another treatment).	“浓缩法”协助科研人员设计出显示药品和对照项（一般是安慰剂，但也有可能是另一种疗法）之间显著“相对治疗差异”的研究方法，从而在缩小试验规模的同时增强试验的说明性。


In the 1980’s, a biomarker contributed to the success of the small but seminal clinical trial of human growth hormone in children who were unable to produce it naturally.	20世纪80年代，一项“生物指标”在无法自然分泌人类生长激素的孩子们身上造就了小范围但却具有开创性的成功。 有些孩子因伤或肿瘤而失去了分泌生长激素的能力；


Some children lose the ability to make growth hormone due to injury or tumors; others lack normal growth-hormone activity from birth, owing to a genetic mutation; and others are missing the gene that codes for the hormone altogether.	也有人由于基因突变从一出生就缺乏正常的生长激素活动； 还有人根本就没有生长激素的基因密码。


Giving the latter group exogenous growth hormone is futile, because their immune systems react to the “foreign” protein by producing antibodies.	给后者注射外源性生长激素于事无补，因为他们的免疫系统会对“外来”蛋白质产生抗体。


Although the hormone may stimulate growth for a short period, the antibodies soon bind and neutralize it.	尽管激素可以在短期内刺激生长，但其自身抗体很快就会对外来激素进行绑定及中和。


By limiting the study population to children in the other two groups, for whom exogenous growth hormone stimulates normal growth, researchers achieved a 100% relative treatment difference.	通过对外源性生长激素能够刺激正常生长的其他两个对照组进行限制，科研人员实现了100%的相对治疗差异。


In other words, every subject who received the active drug responded, and none of those who received the placebo did.	换句话说，所有服用活性药物的受试者都出现了反应，而服用安慰剂的人则没有。


Given this result, US regulators approved the treatment for marketing based on a trial of only 28 patients.	鉴于这样的结果，美国监管机构仅仅依据28名患者参与的试验就批准让这种疗法在市场上销售。


Clearly, genetic markers are useful in designing clinical trials.	很明显，遗传标记在临床试验设计中发挥了作用。


But are more subjective factors like race or ethnicity also relevant?	但种族或民族等更偏向主观的因素是否也有影响？


For the cardiac drug BiDil (a combination of the vasodilators hydralazine and isosorbide dinitrate), the answer is yes.	对于心脏治疗药物BiDil（血管舒张药肼苯哒嗪与消心痛的组合）来说，答案是肯定的。


In 1996, inconclusive clinical trials led US regulators to reject the drug.	1996年，美国监管机构曾因临床试验的不确定性而拒绝审批该药。


But when more detailed analysis of the data revealed potentially elevated benefits for black patients, a new trial was performed on 1,050 self-identified “black” patients with severe heart failure for whom available treatments had proved ineffective.	但当进一步数据分析显示该药对黑人患者的潜在疗效更为显著时，科研人员又针对1，050名现行疗法无效的自我认定的“黑人”严重心衰患者进行了新的试验。


The results – a 43% reduction in mortality and a 39% decrease in hospital visits among patients who received BiDil – were so striking that the study was concluded early.	试验因服用BiDil患者取得了死亡率下降43%、就诊率下降39%的显著结果而提前结束。


Although BiDil has not been a great commercial success since its approval in 2009, it remains on the market.	虽然2009年BiDil获批后并未取得巨大的商业成功，但它迄今仍然在市场上销售。


Some regard race-based medical treatment as necessary to reduce health disparities, while others view it as downright discriminatory.	有人提出为了缩小健康差异医学治疗有必要区分种族，但也有人认为这是彻头彻尾的歧视。


When BiDil was approved, Francis Collins, who was Director of the US National Human Genome Research Institute at the time, warned that “we should move without delay from blurry and potentially misleading surrogates for drug response, such as race, to the more specific causes.”	BiDil获批时，时任美国国家人类基因组研究所主任弗朗西斯·柯林斯警告说“我们应当毫不犹豫地放弃研究种族等模糊并可能构成误导的药物反应替代因素，转而对更具体的原因进行研究。 ”


Of course, Collins was correct; race is a crude and incomplete mechanism for understanding genetic differences.	柯林斯的想法当然是对的； 从种族的角度理解遗传差异既肤浅又不完整。


But we must fight illness with the data we have, not the data we wish we had.	但我们必需利用已经掌握、而不是希望能够掌握的数据来战胜疾病。


Political and ethical sensitivities notwithstanding, drug testing, approval, and labeling must go wherever the evidence leads.	尽管在政治和道德领域具有敏感性，但药品试验、审批和标识程序必需让证据来决定。


The Vanished Intellectual	消失的知识分子


This spring marks the centenary of the birth of two all-round intellectuals, those ideological avatars of the Cold War era, Raymond Aron and Jean-Paul Sartre.	今年春天将迎来两位全能知识分子的世纪华诞，他们是雷蒙•阿隆和让-保罗•萨特。 他们也是冷战时代意识形态的化身。


Aron was born on March 14, 1905, Sartre on June 21.	阿隆生于1905年3月14日，萨特生于6月21日。


Sartre and Aron began their 50-year acquaintance with a shared elite French education that included a formative period in Germany just before the rise of Nazism.	萨特和阿隆都拥有法国精英教育的背景，其中包括纳粹主义在德国抬头之前的格式化的教育。


Each in his inimitable way displayed the contrariness both loved and loathed in intellectuals: Aron fancied Anglo-American liberalism before it became fashionable, while Sartre remained a Communist sympathiser after the fashion had passed.	两人都以同样无法效仿的方式显示了其乖张的个性，这种个性在知识分子圈子里极富争议，人们对之可以说是非爱即恨：阿隆提倡英美式的自由主义，在其成为一种时尚之前； 萨特在共产主义浪潮在法国过去之后继续保持着共产主义同情者的身份。


Aron wrote cool, sleek prose about the most heated geopolitical conflicts, while Sartre could turn any triviality into an existential crisis.	阿隆针对最热门的地缘政治学的冲突撰写冷静，圆滑的散文，而萨特擅长将一切琐事转化成存在主义的危机。


Yet they often stood together against the French political establishment.	他们经常站在同一阵线上反对法国政治体制。


Both joined the Resistance when France was a Nazi puppet state, and both called for Algerian independence after France regained its sovereignty.	当法国成为纳粹的傀儡政府的时候，他们都加入了抵抗组织，当法国重新获得阿尔及利亚的主权之后，他们两人又同时为其独立呐喊。


Unfortunately, Sartre and Aron are also joined in death: both have been disowned, ignored, or underrated by all the academic disciplines – philosophy, literature, sociology, politics – to which their voluminous works might be thought to have contributed.	不幸的是，萨特和阿隆连死亡都联系在一起：两人都被所有的学院派的学科否认、忽视以及低估，这些学科包括哲学，文学，社会学，政治学等，然而针对这些学科他们都著作等身。


Silenced by death, Sartre and Aron are remembered more for the attitudes they brought to whatever they wrote about than for what they actually said.	直到死亡令他们沉默，萨特和阿隆都更多地因他们在作品中展现的鲜明的态度被人们纪念，至于他们事实上提倡的东西大家似乎并不太在意。


Theirs is a fate perennially suffered by intellectuals.	他们的命运也就是知识分子要永久忍受的宿命。


Great intellectuals like Abelard, Erasmus, Galileo, Voltaire, Zola, and Russell each challenged the pieties of his era, and we now regard their success as a good thing.	伟大的智者像阿伯拉德、伊拉兹马斯、伽利略、伏尔泰、左拉以及拉塞尔都对他们各人所处时代的虔行提出挑战。


But most of us are likely to recoil at the methods they used in their work as intellectuals: caricature, deception, and even fabrication.	今天我们认为他们的成功是一件好事，但我们中的大多数很有可能对他们作为知识分子在工作中使用的方法不能接受：讽刺的描述、诡计甚至虚构。


Consider three examples.	请看以下三个例子：


Abelard is credited with the introduction of theology as a critical discipline in Christianity.	阿伯拉德在基督教中引进了批评学科的理论，他也因此著名。


Yet, he did so by juxtaposing contradictory quotes taken out of context, showing that neither the Bible nor the Church fathers speak in one voice and that readers must decide for themselves.	然而，他仅仅是断章取义地陈列了一些自相矛盾的引文，显示出圣经和教堂的神父的口径并不统一，因此读者必须自己判断。


Similarly, Galileo is now known to have committed what we now call “research fraud” in his famed physical experiments. Assuming he conducted them at all, they very probably did not produce the neat results that he used to assail his opponents.	同样地，我们知道伽利略的一些著名物理实验的结果是虚构的，如今我们称之为“研究欺诈”，然而假设他严格执行了这些实验，那也很有可能不会有这些恰到好处的结果，他也无法利用它们来攻击反对者了。


As for Zola, who defended Captain Alfred Dreyfus from charges of treason fueled by anti-Semitism, he was easily convicted for libel because he merely questioned the motives of witnesses without offering any new evidence.	至于左拉，他为法国炮兵军官阿尔弗莱德·德弗莱斯的辩护成功洗刷了其由于当时反闪米特人情绪而被强加的叛国罪名，然而左拉本人被人指控犯有的诽谤罪很容易成立，因为他仅仅询问了目击证人的动机，而拿不出任何新的证据。


All three were subsequently vindicated – sometimes in their lifetimes, sometimes not.	随后，这三人在他们的身前和身后都得到了人们的维护和辩解。


What they shared is a paradoxical ethic common to all intellectuals: the end cause of truth justifies whatever means happens to be at your disposal. This is because the whole truth is rarely what passes for the truth at any moment.	他们的共同点是所有知识分子共有的一个自相矛盾的道德规范：为追求最终的真理，可以采取任何方式，因为真理转瞬即逝，人们很少意识到它的到来，不是随时都能认知到它的存在的。


Such an ethic is abhorrent in today’s world, where knowledge is parceled out to academic disciplines like bits of real estate.	这种道德伦理与当今世界是格格不入的，认知像砌房的砖头一样被分配到各个理论学科。


To an intellectual, an academic may look like someone who mistakes the means of inquiry for its end. But to academics, intellectuals look like ramblers freely trespassing on other people’s property, picking the fruits and despoiling the soil.	知识分子们认为学究式的学者错把方法认为是治学的根本，但对于学院派来说，知识分子就像非法入侵者一样肆意践踏他人的财产，摘采着果实，掠夺着土地。


Intellectuals differ from ordinary academics in holding that the truth is best approached not by producing new knowledge, but by destroying old belief.	与普通的学院派有别的知识分子认为，真理的获得并不在于建立新的知识体系，而在于摧毁旧的信仰。


When the Enlightenment philosophers renovated the old Christian slogan, “The truth shall set you free,” they imagined a process of opening doors, not building barricades.	“真理将使你获得自由”，18世纪欧洲启蒙运动的哲学家们刷新了旧的基督教口号。 他们设想了一个开放的过程，而不是设置障碍。


In short, intellectuals want their audiences to think for themselves, not simply shift allegiances from one expert to another.	简而言之，知识分子们要求他们的听众自己思考，而不是仅仅向一个个的权威显示他们的愚忠。


The intellectual’s ethic is both exhilarating and harsh, for it places responsibility for thinking squarely on the thinker’s shoulders.	因此知识分子的伦理可以说是既令人愉快又非常苛刻，因为它将思考的职责直截了当地放到了思索问题的人肩上。


Every act of deference thus becomes an abdication of one’s own intellectual authority.	每一个顺从的举动也因此成为一个人对自己智力职权的退让。


The slogan “Knowledge is power” may be familiar, but only intellectuals see its full implications.	“知识就是力量”这句口号可以称得上是家喻户晓，但只有知识分子能看到它的暗示意味。


Obviously, greater knowledge enhances our capacity to act.	很明显，伟大的知识能提高我们行动的能力。


What is much less obvious is that such empowerment requires the destruction of socially sanctioned knowledge.	但有一点却不那么显而易见，这种权力的获得要求摧毁社会已经认可的知识。


Only then is a society’s space for decision opened up, enabling its members to move in many more directions than previously deemed possible.	只有这样，一个社会的空间才会开放，社会成员们才有可能做出自己的决定，有更多发展的方向，比先前人们认为的多出许多可能。


Aron and Sartre developed contrasting, but equally controversial, styles of destroying received belief.	阿隆和萨特分别发展了摧毁公认的信仰的风格，二者形成鲜明对照，但同样都引起争议。


Aron preferred demonizing fellow intellectuals as alarmists than conceding that the Cold War might eventuate in a nuclear holocaust.	阿隆偏爱将同道中人妖魔化为杞人忧天者，也不愿意承认冷战也许会以毁灭性的核战争的形式结束。


Sartre castigated those who failed to resist oppression when they could have, while excusing those who enforced oppression given the chance.	萨特则是严惩那些不能抵抗镇压的人，认为他们还有能力这么做，然而对那些一旦给予机会就实施压迫的人却网开一面。


Aron exaggerated the power of reason, while Sartre inflated the power of action.	阿隆夸大了动机的力量，而萨特却鼓吹行动的力量。


Each wanted to take French society in radically different directions, but both never ceased being critical of the status quo.	他们都想激进地把法国社会带到不同的方向，但两人都从未停止对现状的批判。


In the end, the two appear to have thought both in and out of their time.	最终，两人的思想似乎总是与他们的时代若即若离。


While this makes them awkward candidates for any academic discipline, such is the ambivalence of any intellectual’s legacy.	这也使得他们的理论难以归类于任何学院派的学科，这也是人们对于一切知识分子的精神遗产的矛盾情绪。


The Vanishing Bomb	消失的炸弹


WARSAW – The agreement by the American and Russian presidents to renew strategic arms reductions has revived hope for the global abolition of nuclear arms.	华沙——美俄总统在削减核武器方面达成的协议让人们重新燃起了全球禁止核武器的希望。


The urgency can hardly be exaggerated: nuclear weapons may come into the possession of states that might use them, as well as of stateless terrorists – creating new threats of unimaginable proportion.	目前的局势迫在眉睫：核武器不仅仅在拥有核的国家手中，一旦落入无国界的恐怖分子手中——由此可能导致的局面无法想象。


A noble dream just several years ago, the elimination of nuclear arms is no longer the idea only of populists and pacifists; it has now been adopted by professionals – politicians known for their realism and academics known for their sense of responsibility.	这已不再是和平主义者和平民主义者的呼声。 现在越来越多政治家也接受了这种观点，并以此为己任，作为自己奋斗的梦想和目标。


The invention of nuclear weapons – which served the goal of deterrence during the Cold War, when the world was divided into two opposing blocs – answered the needs and risks of the time.	在冷战两个敌对阵营相互对峙的时候，核武器成为了双方制衡的工具，在当时有着一定的必要性。


Security rested on a balance of fear, as reflected in the concept of mutually assured destruction.	如果一旦有一方使用，双方都得灭亡，核武器起着平衡的作用。


In that bipolar world, nuclear weapons were held by only five global powers, all permanent members of the UN Security Council.	在那个两极分明的世界里，作为联合国安全理事会的常任理事国，五个大国拥有着核武器。


Today, the global picture is different.	如今，世界的格局发生了变化。


Sparked by Poland’s Solidarity movement, the Warsaw Pact dissolved, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and the bipolar world and its East-West divide vanished.	伴随着波兰团结工会的运动，华沙条约失效了，苏联解体了，两极世界和东方西方的纷争烟消云散。


An order based on the dangerous doctrine of mutual deterrence, was not, however, replaced with a system founded on cooperation and interdependence.	世界的秩序没有随着以上的变化而变得有序和相互关联。


Destabilization and chaos followed, accompanied by a sense of uncertainty and unpredictability.	不稳定因素和骚乱随时可能发生。


Nuclear weapons are now also held by three states engaged in conflicts: India, Pakistan, and Israel. Given the development of the nuclear programs in North Korea and Iran, they, too, may become nuclear-weapon states.	目前，核武器已经落入了三个正处于冲突的国家手中：印度，巴基斯坦和以色列。


There is also a real danger that this group may expand further to include states where governments will not always be guided by rational considerations.	朝鲜和伊朗也正在加紧他们的脚步，很快就会成为有核国家。


There is also the risk that nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of non-state actors, such as terrorist groups.	更加危险的是，核武器可能落入那些非理性的国家手中，更有可能落入恐怖分子的手中。


An effective non-proliferation regime will not be possible unless the major nuclear powers, especially the United States and Russia, take urgent steps toward nuclear disarmament.	美国和俄罗斯拥有25,000个核子弹头，占世界核武器的96%。


Together, they hold nearly 25,000 nuclear warheads – 96% of the global nuclear arsenal.	除非大国之间，特别是美国俄罗斯，紧急行动起来，否则无核的世界不可能实现。


It gives us hope that US President Barack Obama recognizes these dangers.	让我们值得庆幸的是，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马已经意识到了这个问题。


We note with satisfaction that the new US administration has not turned a deaf ear to responsible statesmen and scientists who are calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons.	我们注意到，对于那些有责任的政治家和科学家关于消除核武器的建议，新的美国政府已经不再充耳不闻。


Indeed, the goal of a nuclear-free world was incorporated in the US administration’s arms control and disarmament agenda.	实际上，美国政府已经将无核世界的目标放在了武器控制和消除的议事日程上。


We appreciate the proposals from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany as well, while Russia also signaled recently in Geneva its readiness to embark upon nuclear disarmament.	我们对英国，法国和德国在此问题上的立场表示赞赏，俄罗斯最近在日内瓦会议上的表态也值得欣慰。


Opponents of nuclear disarmament used to argue that this goal was unattainable in the absence of an effective system of control and verification.	反对无核的人士常常认为：如果没有有效的控制和识别机制，无核的目标不可能实现。


But, today, appropriate means of control are available to the international community.	然而目前，一些行之有效的方法已经在国际社会中出现。


Of key importance are the nuclear safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.	其中，国际原子能机构（IAEA）起着关键的作用。


The world must have guarantees that civilian nuclear reactors will not be used for military purposes – a condition for non-nuclear-weapon states’ unrestricted access to nuclear technologies, as proposed recently by UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown in his initiative on a global nuclear bargain for our times.	世界必须保证民用的核设施不能用于军事的目的。


This is especially urgent now, with the search for new energy sources and a “renaissance” of nuclear power.	——这是非核国家学习核技术的先决条件，也是由英国首相戈登·布朗针对目前核现状提出的建议。


The 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference calls for an urgent formulation of priorities.	2010年的核不扩散会议将紧急呼吁这个问题的重要性。 先期的筹备委员会将于今年5月份在纽��碰头，前期的工作也将开展起来。


The Preparatory Committee will meet in New York this May, and this is where the necessary decisions should be made.	目前主要是在核武器削减方面作出努力，特别是一些准备发射的核弹头的削减上。


The main expectations are for a reduction of nuclear armaments, a cutback in the number of launch-ready warheads (de-alerting), negotiations on a Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty, ratification of the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty, and other means of strengthening practical implementation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, especially its universal adoption.	以上的提议在《裂变材料禁产条约》中达成，已经纳入《全面禁止核试验条约》中。 其他一些的方案包括核不扩散条约等，这都已经成为了广泛的共识。


The time has come for a fundamental change in the proceedings of the Geneva-based Disarmament Conference, which for years has failed to meet the international community’s expectations.	日内瓦裁军会议的成果已经被证明多年来起不了什么作用，必须作出一个根本性的改变。


We share the view expressed by the academics, politicians, and experts of the international Warsaw Reflection Group that consideration should be given to the zero option as a basis for a future multilateral nuclear disarmament agreement.	我们同意华沙国际反思集团的学者，政治家和专家的意见，彻底修改日内瓦协议，作为将来多国削减核武器条约的基础。


The Group’s report, Arms Control Revisited: Non-proliferation and Denuclearization , elaborated under the chairmanship of Adam D. Rotfeld of Poland and drafted by the British scholar Ian Anthony of SIPRI, was based on contributions by security analysts from nuclear powers and Poland, as well as from countries previously in possession of nuclear weapons (South Africa) and post-Soviet countries where they were once stored (Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine).	华沙国际反思集团近期出版了一份报告：题为《再论武器控制：无核和核不扩散》，该报告由波兰的阿达姆-丹尼尔·罗特菲尔德主导，由英国学者伊恩·安东尼负责撰写，几个核大国和波兰的安全专家提供了一些资料，同时，南非和几个原苏联的国家（白俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰等）也参与其中。


The fact that these states were denuclearized as part of the Safe and Secure Disarmament program provides a valuable lesson.	南非和这几个原苏联国家的无核化进程给大家作出了一个好的榜样。


The process of gradual nuclear disarmament must be set in motion.	无核化的渐进过程必须实行。


It will not produce results overnight, but it would give us a sense of direction, a chance to strengthen non-proliferation mechanisms, and an opportunity to establish a global, cooperative non-nuclear security system.	当然，目标不可能在一天之内实现。 但我们必须明确方向，相互合作，共同加强核不扩散的进程，以建立一个全球的，合作性的无核安全的系统。


The deadliest threat to global security comes from a qualitatively new wave of nuclear proliferation.	目前，新一轮的核武器的扩散正在进行，对全球的安全产生迫在眉睫的威胁。


The heaviest responsibility is shouldered by the powers that hold the largest arsenals.	作为拥有最多的核武器的国家，理所应当的承当着最重要的责任。


We trust that the US and Russian presidents, and leaders of all other nuclear powers, will show statesmanlike wisdom and courage and begin the process of freeing the world from the nuclear menace.	我们相信美国和俄罗斯的总统，加上其他拥有核武器的国家领袖，运用他们政治家的智慧和勇气，让我们摆脱核武器的阴影。


But as important as this goal is for international order and security, of equal importance is respect for human rights and the rights of minorities, as well as the establishment, on a global scale, of democracy and the rule of law.	这就象全球对民主和法律的普世价值的尊重，和维护人权和少数族权益一样的重要，因为这是关乎国际秩序的安全。


The Varieties of Unemployment	失业也分类型


BERKELEY – We hear from surprisingly many quarters these days that governments in Europe and North America, and their central banks, should give up on the expansionary policies they have pursued to try to create jobs.	发自伯克莱——近一段时间有一个令人惊讶的消息在各种渠道广为传播，说欧洲和北美地区的各国政府及其央行即将停止执行刺激就业的扩张性财政政策。


The high unemployment currently afflicting the North Atlantic, critics of government stimulus maintain, is not cyclical but “structural,” and thus cannot be alleviated by policies that boost aggregate demand.	那些政府刺激计划的批评者认为，当前困扰着北大西洋两岸的高失业率并不是周期性的，而是“结构性的”，因此那些试图通过扩大需求总量来缓解就业形势的政策自然也是缘木求鱼了。


Let me be the first to say that structural unemployment is a true and severe danger.	请让我首先说明，结构性失业确实存在，而且是极端危险的。


When people who in other circumstances could be happy, healthy, and productive members of the workforce lack the skills, confidence, social networks, and experience needed to find work worth paying for, we obviously have a problem.	当那些在其它情况下本该愉快，健康且努力工作的劳动者因为缺乏技能、信心，社会网络以及经验而找不到合适的工作之时，这个问题就突显出来了。


And if unemployment in Europe and North America stays elevated for two or three more years, it is highly likely that we will have to face it.	而倘若欧美地区的失业率连续两三年上升的话，那么我们就很可能要被迫面对这个问题。


For nothing converts cyclical unemployment into structural unemployment more certainly than prolonged unemployment.	因为将周期性失业恶化成结构性失业的罪魁祸首，就是长期性的失业。


But is that true today?	但当今这种现象确实发生了吗？


Does it look right now as if the biggest problem facing the economies of Europe and North America is structural unemployment?	当今欧美所面对的最大问题是否就是结构性失业？


It does not.	我看未必。


Let us remember what structural unemployment looks like.	让我们回忆一下结构性失业究竟该是什么样的。


The economy is depressed and unemployment is high not because of slack aggregate demand generated by a collapse in spending, but instead because “structural” factors have produced a mismatch between the skills of the labor force and the distribution of demand.	在这种情况下，经济衰退和高失业率并非来源于经济危机所引发的社会总需求下滑，而是因为“结构性”因素导致了劳动者的技能无法与社会的需求相衔接。


The structure of demand by consumers is different from the jobs that workers are capable of filling.	消费者的需求结构多种多样，而劳动者也应该有能力去满足。


For example, suppose that you have many workers qualified and skilled to work in construction, but households have decided that their houses are more than large enough, and wish to fill them with manufactured goods.	比如说，你手下有一帮经验丰富的建筑工人，但消费者却认为自己的房子已经足够大了，他们需要些家居用品来装点自己的家。


This would produce structural unemployment to the extent that the ex-construction workers could not do things in manufacturing that would make it worthwhile for manufacturing firms to hire them.	这就会导致结构性失业，因为这些前建筑工人做起家具来手脚可不利索，自然也没有制造业企业肯雇用他们。


In that case, we would expect to see construction depressed: firms closed, capital goods idle, and workers unemployed.	在这种情况下，我们将会看到建筑业的衰退：公司倒闭，设备闲置，工人失业。


But we would also expect to see manufacturing plants running at double shifts – the money not spent on construction has to go somewhere, and, remember, the problem is not a lack of aggregate demand.	但我们同样也会看到制造业在加班加点生产——那些没有流向制造业的钱必将流向其他领域，而且请记住，问题并不是总需求减少了。


We would expect to see manufacturers holding job fairs, and when not enough workers showed up, we would expect to see manufacturers offering higher wages to attract workers into their plants, and then raising prices to cover their higher costs.	我们会看到制造业四处招工，而当招工人数不足的时候，他们会提高工资水平来吸引工人，并提高产品价格来弥补因此而产生的高成本。


The size and duration of the excess unemployment of ex-construction workers might be substantial and long lasting.	而另一方面，建筑工人的失业规模可能相当巨大，并且会持续相当长的时间。


It might require significant time to retrain construction workers and plug them into social networks in which they become good manufacturing workers.	国家还得重新培训他们，并使他们加入到可令其转变为优秀制造业工人的社会网络当中，当然这需要很长的一段时间。


We might see prolonged and high unemployment in the construction sector, and in regions that had seen the biggest previous construction booms.	因此我们会看到建筑行业的长期高失业率，特别是在那些建筑业曾前空前繁荣的地区。


But depression in the construction sector and unemployment among its ex-workers would be balanced by exuberance in the manufacturing sector, rising prices for manufactured goods, and long hours and high wages for manufacturing workers	但建筑业的衰退和失业都将在制造业得到补偿，家居用品价格上升，工人也拼命干活来赚取高工资。


That is what “mismatch” structural unemployment looks like – and it is not what we have today, at least not in Europe and North America.	上面所描述的就是所谓“错误配置”的结构性失业——但这并不是我们当前面对的问题，至少在欧美地区来说。


In the past three years, employment in construction has shrunk, but so has employment in manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information distribution and communications, professional and business services, educational services, leisure and hospitality, and in the public sector.	在过去三年间，建筑业的就业有所收缩，而批发零售贸易，运输仓储，中介行业，专业以及商业服务，教育，娱乐餐饮业以及政府公共部门也遭遇了同样的情况。


Employment is up in health care, Internet-related businesses, and perhaps in logging and mining.	但是健康服务，互联网贸易（或许还有伐木采矿业）的就业都有所上升。


In the United States, the past three years have seen employment fall from 137.8 million people in July 2007 to slightly less than 130 million in July 2010 – a decline of 7.9 million during a period in which the adult population grew by six million.	在美国境内，过去三年就业人口从2007年的1. 378亿人轻微下降到2010年7月的1.


What we have witnessed is not a shift in demand into sectors lacking an adequate number of qualified and productive workers, but rather a collapse in the level of aggregate demand.	3亿人，减少了790万人——要知道这段时间内人口还增长了600万。 因此我们所看到的并不是需求转向了其他缺乏足够熟练工人的行业，而是一个社会总需求的下降。


This may well look like structural unemployment in three years.	这种情况在三年内会与结构性失业的表现非常类似。


In three years, we may well see labor shortages, rising wages, and increasing prices in expanding sectors, accompanied by high unemployment elsewhere in the economy.	在三年内，我们会看见劳动力短缺，工资上升，某些新兴行业的产品价格上涨，同时也会看到其他行业的高失业率。


But that is not our problem now. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.	但这并不是我们当前最紧迫的问题，因此无须忋人忧天，还是处理好眼前的事吧。


The Velvet Delusion	锦色幻觉


COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS – With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the relatively non-violent overthrow of communism throughout Central and Eastern Europe, optimists predicted a new golden age of a world filled with peaceful democracies.	德克萨斯州，卡城——伴随着1989年柏林墙的倒下，以及共产主义在中欧和东欧各地、被民众以暴力色彩相对较轻的方式推翻，乐观主义者作出了关于新黄金时代的预言：那时，世界各地都将是和平安宁的民主国家；


History, for some, seemed to have come to an end.	在某些人看来，历史已经终结。


But the optimists have proved to be misguided, as the world’s powers, great and small, drew their own, often conflicting, lessons from the past.	不过，随着全球大大小小的国家从这段历史中总结出了属于自己的教训时（而它们的观点又常常是相互冲突的），这些乐观主义者的想法已被证明并不正确。


For Americans, 1989 validated everything they already believed.	对美国人来说，1989年证明了他们业已信奉的一切。


They had won the Cold War, or so they perceived, through hard force and conviction.	美国人是通过强硬的实力与信念方才赢得了冷战（或者他们自己这么认为）。


They saw demonstrators in East European capitals and Chinese crowds in Tiananmen Square chanting for freedom, and believed that those throngs wanted to be American.	他们看到了喊着自由口号、出现在东欧各国首都的示威者以及聚集在天安门广场上的中国民众，他们相信这些聚集者期望成为美国人。


As George H.W. Bush declared, “We know how to secure a more just and prosperous life for man on Earth: through free markets, free speech, free elections, and the exercise of free will unhampered by the state.”	正如乔治·H·W·布什所言：“我们明白应如何为世人确保一个更加公正、更加繁荣的生活：其方法便是通过自由市场、自由言论、自由选举、以及不受国家阻碍的、自由意志之行使。 ”


Subsequent events seemed to validate this American recipe.	随后发生的事件看似证明了这份美国式处方的正确性。


The Gulf War confirmed American military might and the age-old perils of appeasement.	海湾战争一方面对美国的军事实力给予了确认，另一方面也证实了绥靖政策古已有之的风险。


The Clinton era gave us active democracy-promotion as the principle tool of American foreign policy, which George W. Bush’s administration took to unprecedented extremes.	克林顿执政时期将积极推行民主制度作为了美国外交政策的原则性工具，而这一做法又被乔治·W·布什发挥到了登峰造极的程度。


Cold War victory provided the answer for each.  “America’s resolve and American ideals so clearly articulated by Ronald Reagan,” Clinton said, “helped to bring the Wall down.”	冷战的胜利对于两者都给出了答案。 克林顿指出：“由罗纳德·里根所清晰阐明的美国之决心与美国之理念，为推倒柏林墙提供了一臂之力。


The lesson was clear: “we achieve our aims by defending our values and leading the forces of freedom.”	”而其中蕴含的经验也很清楚：“我们通过保卫自己的价值并引导自由的力量，使得我们的目标终获实现。 ”


Barack Obama’s words echo those of Clinton.	而在巴拉克·奥巴马的言论中，人们也能察觉到克林顿的余音。


Despite his frequent avowals of change, his central articulation of American policy seems remarkably static. “Earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks,” Obama preached in his famous campaign speech in Berlin, “but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions.”	尽管奥巴马常常誓言变革，但他对美国政策的主要阐述听起来却是萧规曹随，他曾在其著名的柏林竞选演说中宣讲过如下观点：“先辈们在打倒法西斯主义与共产主义的过程中，并非仅仅依赖于导弹和坦克，他们也凭借了坚定的联盟与持久的信念。


This is why Obama’s America spends more on weaponry than the rest of the world combined, and why democracy-promotion remains the unquestioned foundation of American foreign policy, with debate possible only about its application.	这既解释了为何奥巴马治下的美国，在武器上的开支比世界其它各国的总和还要高； 也解释了为何推行民主仍是美国外交政策不容置疑的根基（人们或许只能就该政策的具体实施进行争论）。


History offers a recipe for success, so long as Americans adhere to the lesson of 1989.	只要美国人仍然对1989年的经验深信不疑，那么历史便已指出了通向成功的道路。


But the rest of the world learned different lessons.	但是世界其他国家却从中得到了不同的教训。


European strategists largely dismissed America’s interpretation that force had won the Cold War, believing that cooperation had triumphed precisely because force was absent.	对于凭暴力赢得冷战这种美国式的解读，欧洲的战略家们基本上不予认可； 他们相信合作之所以成功，正是因为暴力的缺席。


They heard in pleas for freedom from behind the Iron Curtain not a desire to become American, but to join the remarkably successful European experiment in collective security and prosperity that emerged after World War II.	来自铁幕之内的、对自由的呼唤，在欧洲人听来，并非表达了成为美国人的意愿，而是流露出对参与一场大获成功的欧洲试验之渴望，这场集体安全与繁荣方面的试验起源于二战之后。


For today’s European leaders, the central lesson of 1989 is that force is counterproductive; what matters is consensus.	对于欧洲现在的领导人而言，1989年的核心经验便是：暴力只会带来事与愿违的结果，真正重要的因素是共识。


Russian leaders, not surprisingly, also drew their own conclusions.	俄国领导人也从中得出了自己的结论，这一点并不令人感到惊讶。


When Mikhail Gorbachev spoke of a “Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals,” his conception was not of a continent under Soviet domination, as Josef Stalin once threatened.	当米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫谈及“从大西洋直到乌拉尔山的欧洲”时，他脑中所浮现出的并非是一块处于苏联统治下的大陆（正如约瑟夫·斯大林曾经威胁过的那样）。


Having demonstrated remarkable restraint in 1989, Russian leaders expected to be embraced by the West.	在1989年展现了极大克制的苏联领导人，期待着能为西方所接受；


Instead, NATO expanded to Russia’s doorstep, the European Union barred its doors, and membership in the World Trade Organization seemed out of reach.	然而，事态却向着另一个方向发展：北约已将其范围扩展到了俄国人的眼皮子底下，而欧盟则让俄国吃了闭门羹，世界贸易组织的成员国身份看上去也是那么遥不可及。


The post-Soviet economy crumbled, crime skyrocketed, and life expectancy declined.	后苏联时代的经济出现崩溃，治安极度恶化，预期寿命大幅下降；


Russia’s voice in global affairs lost authority.	而俄国在全球事务中的话语也失去了往日的权威。


For Russian leaders, 1989’s lesson was clear: trusting the West was foolish at best, dangerous at worst.	对俄国领导人而言，1989年留下的教训十分清楚：信任西方，说得好听点，很愚蠢；


Gorbachev’s vision of European inclusion neglected centuries of Russian history; the West did not want Russian participation.	说得不好听，很危险。 戈尔巴乔夫关于融入欧洲的憧憬，忽略了数百年来的俄国历史；


Better that Russians rely on their own power, develop their own resources, and police their own borders.	西方并不希望俄国跻身其间。 俄国人最好还是依靠自己的实力，开发自身的资源，守好本国的疆域。


The Kremlin trusted the West in 1989.  Subsequent Russian leaders refuse to be duped again.	1989年，克里姆林宫曾相信过西方； 其后的俄国领导人则拒绝再次受骗。


Chinese leaders embraced 1989’s most puzzling legacy. They recoiled at the Soviet bloc’s disintegration.	而1989年留下的、最令人迷惑的遗产则被中国领导人收下。


“Every effort should be made to prevent changes in Eastern Europe from influencing China’s internal development,” party officials concluded in March 1989, and within months they violently crushed democratic protesters.	苏东阵营的分崩离析曾令他们心惊胆战，中共官员在当年三月如此总结道：“应尽一切努力，以阻止东欧剧变对中国的内部发展产生影响。 ”之后数月内，他们便对民主抗议者进行了暴力镇压。


China took from 1989 the lesson that state stability was paramount.	中国从1989年学到了一点：国家稳定高于一切；


Yet China’s leaders also recognized that they ignored popular demands at great peril.	不过中国领导人也意识到：忽略民众的需求，将会带来很大的风险。


The government thus made an implicit deal with its citizens: political dissent would not be tolerated, but, in exchange, the state would guarantee economic growth.	于是，政府与公民之间达成了一种默契：政治异议人士不会得到宽容； 但反过来，国家将确保经济的增长。


No one could question the government’s legitimacy so long as prosperity expanded.	只要日渐繁荣的情况仍在继续，政府的合法性便不容置疑。


Chinese foreign policy also prioritized legitimacy after 1989, with the regime hoping to reassert its authority globally by expanding China’s participation in international organizations.	1989年之后，中国的外交政策也将合法性放在了其优先位置，该国政权希望通过增加中国在国际组织中的参与程度、以此在世界范围内重塑其权威。


Chinese leaders embraced the cooperative nature of the post-1945 European process, but simultaneously took the Russian lesson to heart: the West would not yield merely to good intentions.	中国领导人既对1945年之后、欧洲进程中的合作本质加以了接受，同时也将俄国的教训牢记于心：西方不会仅仅因为善意，便作出让步。


But, unlike Russia, China de-emphasized the relevance of traditional hard power to achieve its goals.	不过与俄国不同的是，中国弱化了对传统硬实力与实现其目标之间相关性的强调。


In fact, Chinese leaders have spent remarkably little, relative to China’s growing GDP, on the military.	事实上，相对于中国快速增长的GDP而言，该国领导人在军事方面的投入非常之少。


Chinese power today comes not from its ability to match America’s blue-water navy, but from its holdings in US Treasury bonds.	今日中国之力量，并非来自于可与美国蓝水海军比肩的军力，而是源自该国所持有的美国国债。


The legacy of 1989 echoes even in Iran, whose leaders seem clearly to have learned from Tiananmen Square and the collapse of the Iron Curtain that a committed government can, indeed, demobilize a public demanding reform.	1989年的遗训甚至在伊朗也产生了回音； 看上去很明显的一点是，伊朗领导人已从天安门广场以及铁幕的崩溃中明白了一点：立场坚定的政府的确可以驱散一群要求改革的公众。


The world would not soon forget the horrors of Tiananmen, global protestors promised in 1989.	1989年，全球的抗议者们曾有这般许诺：对于天安门广场上的恐怖一幕，世界怎会很快将其忘却。


But it did – and with extraordinary speed.	然而，它确实被人们抛在了脑后，而且遗忘的速度相当惊人。


In looking back at 1989, we are, in effect, looking forward from that year’s momentous events at the very different legacies that they produced.	我们在回望1989年时，实际上是在以那一年的重大事件为起点，展望其所留给世人的、千差万别之遗产。


The Virtual Enemy	虚拟敌人


Five years have passed since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington of September, 2001, yet it seems that policymakers have learned little about how terrorist cells operate, and what their weaknesses are.	2001年9月对纽约、华盛顿的恐怖袭击已经过去5年了，但决策者们似乎对恐怖组织的运作方式及其弱点鲜有了解。


The Bush administration still uses the phrase “war on terror” and behaves as though it really is a war, the ordinary kind where one government fights another.	布什政府还在使用“反恐战争”的词汇，他们的所作所为就像真的在打一场政府和政府之间的常规战争。


Yet after five years of military exertions, strategies based on targeting a united aggressor have only made the situation worse.	但5年过去了，以单一侵略者为目标的策略只能让情况越变越糟。


It is time to understand the new, emerging model of conflict.	现在该是了解新出现的冲突模式的时候了。


In order to make the “war” paradigm fit, the Bush administration alludes to al-Qaeda as a centrally directed enemy.	为了让“战争”模式合情合理，布什政府暗示基地组织是听从统一指挥的敌人。


In fact, there is now no master planner or funder of terrorist activities.	但实际上，现在恐怖活动已经没有统一的策划者和出资人。


The Madrid, London, and Bali attacks, as well as several thwarted operations in the United States and Britain, were all characterized by their dispersed organization.	发生在马德里、伦敦和巴厘岛的恐怖袭击以及美国和英国被挫败的另外几起图谋的共同特征就是组织非常分散。


Independently generated plots emerged and used ad hoc resources, often within the target country.	这些恐怖活动无一例外地是在目标国国内独立策划，并利用了当地的特殊资源。


Those small operations also lacked a common internal design.	这些小规模行动也缺乏统一的内在目标。


Terrorist motivations differ from cell to cell, even from person to person.	不同群体、甚至是不同个体的恐怖分子，其动机往往各不相同。


Individuals can be involved for profit and power, or for political and religious reasons, while others participate for hate or thrills.	恐怖分子个人可能是追求金钱和权力，也可能是追求政治和宗教目标，还可能是出于仇恨或想寻求刺激。


Moreover, there are vast differences in terms of risks, rewards, and imperatives as one moves up the organizational chain, or jumps from cell to cell.	此外，随着恐怖分子在组织内部地位的提升，或者从一个恐怖群体转到另一个恐怖群体，其中所涉及的风险、酬劳和必须遵守的制度也千差万别。


Conventional military models are geared to decapitate something that, in this case, has no head.	传统军事模式这次要斩首的敌人根本就没有首级。


The characteristics of this new structure have already been studied in a very different context.	我们在完全不同的背景下对这种新构架的特征进行了研究。


Terrorism is a violent version of an “agile virtual enterprise.” A virtual enterprise is any small group that self-assembles into an organization that is just large enough to accomplish the collective intention.	恐怖主义是“灵活的虚拟组织”与暴力相关的版本，虚拟组织是自发成立的小型团体，其规模大小恰好能够完成某项集体目标。


Virtual enterprises are unusually innovative, and, in the business sector, they are possibly the only system that can build a one-off product well.	虚拟组织有着非比寻常的创新能力，在企业部门，它们也许是唯一一种能出色制造一次性产品的体系。


A conspicuous example already exists in the movie production industry.	影视制作行业已经是个非常明显的范例。


In fact, they are probably the commercial model of the future.	事实上，虚拟组织也许代表了未来的商业模型。


The benefits of virtual enterprises stem from their lightness over stability.	虚拟组织的好处不在于稳定，而在于灵活。


At present, most of the price of any product supports the huge, inefficient organization that assembled it.	目前，产品价格的绝大部分都源自于规模庞大、效率低下的生产企业。


Nearly all the creativity and problem solving occurs in small companies and is later “integrated” by mega-corporations, which have an expensive and vulnerable infrastructure, and keep most of the profit.	几乎所有的创造力和问题解决能力都来源于后来被大公司“整合”的小型企业，整合这些小企业的大公司无一例外有着昂贵但却脆弱的基础设施，而且霸占了利润的绝大部分。


This model is the current basis of the business world, just as centralization has also been the favored defense strategy.	就像集中管理曾经是最受青睐的防御策略，这种形式目前也是整个企业界的基础。


When you buy a car from General Motors, 80 cents from each dollar goes to GM, which mostly only manages itself.	当你购买通用汽车的产品时，你所付的每一美元中就有80美分揣进了通用汽车的腰包，而通用汽车公司所做的仅仅是自我管理。


The small suppliers actually provide you with 80% of the value and innovation but only receive 20% of the reward.	小型供应商实际提供了80%的价值和创新，但仅仅拿到了20%的回报。


Ironically, extensive research into alternative models was funded through the US Department of Defense, which, as the world’s largest buyer of complex machinery, wanted better, cheaper and more tailored goods.	具有讽刺意味的是，美国国防部出资赞助了对替代性模式的广泛研究。 作为全世界最大的精密仪器买主，国防部想要更先进、更廉价、也更符合需要的产品。


The research noted the conditions and triggers needed to facilitate the self-assembly of small opportunistic groups and enable them to act like large companies.	研究指出了小型机会主义团体成立并像大公司那样运作所需要具备的条件和环境因素。


Unfortunately, the research program was cancelled before its findings could be applied in the business world, almost certainly because it threatened large companies.	令人遗憾的是，成果还没来得及在企业界得到应用，这项研究计划就被取消了，这几乎毫无疑问是因为大公司的利益受到了威胁。


It is often forgotten that US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld emerged from a comfortable retirement to reorganize the American military into a smaller, more agile force, using some of these same insights.	人们常常忘记了这样一个事实，那就是美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德在经历了闲适的退休生活后又重新出山，本着上面提到的原则将美国军队改组为更小、也更灵活的作战团体。


But the planning for the Iraq invasion, in which Rumsfeld advocated the use of fewer troops than advised, suggests a poor understanding of distributed systems.	但在策划入侵伊拉克时，拉姆斯菲尔德鼓吹少派作战部队，显示了他对分散系统的肤浅理解。


While the forces were deployed for a flexible entry and withdrawal, the Bush administration ended up using them for an old-fashioned occupation.	尽管军队在部署上更加进退自如，布什政府让他们执行的还是老式的占领任务。


Terrorists have been better at capitalizing on models of distributed operation.	恐怖分子更善于利用分散的行动模式。


Scores of texts are appearing in the Muslim world on jihadi strategic studies. The best known in the West is The Management of Savagery , but only because it was translated and made public.	穆斯林世界中出现了数十篇研究杰哈德战略的文本，其中在西方名气最大的当数《野性的管理》，究其原因只是因为这篇文章被译成英文并被公开发表。


These books (and the trends they indicate) are becoming less dogmatic and increasingly sophisticated in the adoption of modern management techniques.	上述书籍（以及它们所代表的趋势）在应用现代管理技术方面教条的东西越来越少，精辟的内容越来越多。


Their research surely includes the young science of virtual enterprise management: how to nurture and support self-organizing cells.	书中的研究当然包括虚拟组织管理等新兴学科：比如怎样对自发形成的团体进行培养和支持。


Perhaps the first lesson for Western policymakers is that virtual enterprises run on a culture of trust.	也许西方决策者先要了解的一点是虚拟组织基于信任文化。


Some kinds of trust can be based on an artificial notion of “not us” rather than on real values and direct experience.	有些信任并不是来自真正的价值观和直接经历，而是可以基于“非我族类”的虚幻观念。


That is why the Bush administration’s actions actually strengthen the virtual terrorist enterprise dynamic.	这就是为什么布什政府的行为在实际上加强了虚拟恐怖组织力量的原因。


Bush’s “us and them” rhetoric clearly defines an “other” and positions it as a cohesive enemy.	布什关于“他们和我们”的说教明确指出了“异类”的存在，并将其作为统一的敌人。


His “war” approach is making it easier for Islamist terrorists to view the West as an equally united and malevolent force.	他的“战争”论使伊斯兰恐怖分子更容易把西方看成一股同样团结的邪恶力量。


In the future, the virtual enterprise model will shape how business is conducted, wars will be fought and probably how government services will be administered.	将来，虚拟组织模式会决定企业的经营方式、战争的进行方式和政府服务的管理方式。


It promises to decouple the management of finance from that of production, implying faster innovation and economic growth.	它能把财务管理和生产管理区别开来，促进创新和经济的发展。


However, if Western governments do not develop a deep understanding of how these structures operate, they stand no chance of combating the agile terrorist enterprise.	但如果西方政府不去深入地了解上述构架如何运作，他们就根本不可能击败灵活机动的恐怖组织。


The Wages of Economic Ignorance	经济无知的代价


LONDON – Politicians are masters at “passing the buck.”	伦敦——政客们总是精于推卸责任。


Everything good that happens reflects their exceptional talents and efforts; everything bad is caused by someone or something else.	任何好事都反映了他们无与伦比的才智和努力； 而任何坏事总是由他们之外的某些人和某些事情引起的。


The economy is a classic field for this strategy.	经济是这一战略的典型领域。


Three years after the global economy’s near-collapse, the feeble recovery has already petered out in most developed countries, whose economic inertia will drag down the rest.	全球经济几乎崩溃已经过去三年了，发达国家的萎靡复苏难以为继，而它们的疲软又拉了其他国家的后腿。


Pundits decry a “double-dip” recession, but in some countries the first dip never ended: Greek GDP has been dipping for three years.	专家们大谈“二次探底”衰退，但某些国家从来没有从第一次探底中恢复过来：希腊GDP已经连续三年下降了。


When we ask politicians to explain these deplorable results, they reply in unison: “It’s not our fault.”	当我们要求政客们对这一凄惨结果给出解释的时候，他们异口同声地回答说：“这不是我们的错。


Recovery, goes the refrain, has been “derailed” by the eurozone crisis.	”接着，他们会大谈复苏因欧元区危机而“脱轨”。


But this is to turn the matter on its head.	但这完全是信口胡说。


The eurozone crisis did not derail recovery; it is the result of a lack of recovery.	欧元区危机并没有让复苏脱轨； 其本身正是复苏萎靡的结果。


It is the natural, predictable, and (by many) predicted result of the main European countries’ deliberate policy of repressing aggregate demand.	这是主要欧洲国家有意压制总需求的政策所导致的自然的、可预料的且被许多人所预料到的结果。


That policy was destined to produce a financial crisis, because it was bound to leave governments and banks with depleted assets and larger debts.	这一政策注定要导致金融危机，因为这注定会把政府和银行资产侵蚀殆尽，让它们背上越来越大的债务包袱。


Despite austerity, the forecast of this year’s UK structural deficit has increased from 6.5% to 8% – requiring an extra £22 billion ($34.6 billion) in cuts a year.	即使采取了紧缩政策，今年英国结构性赤字预计仍将上升6. 5%—6.


Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne blame the eurozone crisis; in fact, their own economic illiteracy is to blame.	8%，这意味着还要削减220亿英镑才能实现平衡。 首相卡梅伦和财政大臣奥斯本将责任推给了欧元区危机，而事实上，应该受到指责是他们自己的经济无知。


Unfortunately for all of us, the explanation bears repeating nowadays.	不幸的是，对我们所有人来说，这样的解释如今一再重复在耳边响起。


Depressions, recessions, contractions – call them what you will – occur because the private-sector spends less than it did previously.	萧条、衰退、收缩——你怎么称呼都行——发生的原因是私人部门支出比以前更少了。


This means that its income falls, because spending by one firm or household is income for another.	这意味着私人部门的收入在下降，因为某个企业或家庭的支出正是另一个企业或家庭的收入。


In this situation, government deficits rise naturally, as tax revenues decline and spending on unemployment insurance and other benefits rises.	在这样的情形下，政府赤字自然会上升，因为税收收入下降了，而失业保险和其他福利支出上升了。


These “automatic stabilizers” plug part of the private-sector spending gap.	这一“自动稳定器”填补了私人支出不足的部分空白。


But if the government starts reducing its own deficit before private-sector spending recovers, the net result will be a further decline in total spending, and hence in total income, causing the government’s deficit to widen, rather than narrow.	但如果政府在私人部门支出复苏之前就开始削减其赤字，那么净结果将是总支出的进一步下降，总收入也将随之下降，导致政府赤字恶化而不是改善。


True, if governments stop spending altogether, deficits will eventually fall to zero.	诚然，如果政府停止所有支出，那么赤字将最终减少到零。


People will starve to death in the interim, but the budget will be balanced.	在此期间，人们会饥寒交迫，但预算将实现平衡。


That is the crazy logic of current economic policy in much of Europe (and elsewhere).	这就是当前欧洲大部（和其他地区）经济政策的疯狂逻辑。


Of course, it will not be carried through to the bitter end.	当然，一条路走到黑是不太可能的。


Too much will crack along the way – the banks, the monetary system, social cohesion, the legitimacy of the political regime.	紧缩之路必将伴随众多杂音，比如银行、货币体系、社会凝聚力、政权合法性等等。


Our leaders may be intellectually challenged, but they are not suicidal.	我们的领导人将经受智力挑战，但他们不会走上自杀之路的。


Deficit reduction eventually will be put into cold storage, either openly, as I would prefer, or surreptitiously, as is politicians’ way.	预算削减最终将被打入冷宫，不管是公开宣布（我希望如此）还是暗地进行（政客的惯用伎俩）。


In the United Kingdom, there is already talk of Plan A +.	在英国，人们已经开始谈论A+计划了。


Those who see the need for such a growth strategy, but who also want to help their friends, like the idea of tax cuts – especially for the rich.	那些看到了采取此类增长战略的需要，但又想帮助亲朋友好友的人会喜欢减税的主意——特别是对富人减税。


This knocks a hole in current deficit-reduction plans, but, provided government continues to cut spending, it has the benefit (from a conservative’s point of view) of shrinking the state’s role over time.	这不啻给当前的赤字削减计划伤口撒盐，但只要政府在继续削减支出，这倒是有利于（从保守派的角度看）在长期削弱政府的作用。


Apart from questions of fairness, cutting top tax rates is an inferior way to increase spending, because the rich have a higher propensity to save.	抛开公平问题不谈，削减最高税率也是劣于增加支出的办法，因为富人的储蓄倾向更高。


Tax reductions should be targeted specifically at the poor if one wants the money to be spent to stimulate the economy.	减税应该明确地针对穷人，如果想让人们把减掉的税收花出去从而刺激经济的话。


In fact, the best option of all is for the government to spend the money itself.	事实上，对所有人最好的办法是政府自己来花钱。


Governments can do this consistently with a medium-term deficit-reduction plan by making a crucial distinction between their budgets’ current and capital accounts.	政府可以做到花钱和中期预算削减计划并行不悖，办法是在其预算的经常账户和资本账户之间做出关键区分。


The current account covers spending on services and perishable goods that produce no assets.	经常项目包括在不能产生任何资产的服务和不可储藏商品方面的支出。


The capital account is for buying or building durable assets that give a prospective future return.	资本账户包括买入或建造能带来预期回报的耐久资产。


The first is a charge on taxation; the second is not.	前者是税款支出，后者则否。


If today’s accounting rules are too insensitive to make this distinction, a separate entity could do the investing.	如果现有会计法则过于敏感，不能做出这一区分，那么可以成立一个单独实体来处理投资。


A national investment bank would be capitalized by the government, borrow from the private sector, and invest in infrastructure, housing, and “greening” the economy.	可以成立一个国家投资银行，政府为出资人，私人部门为债权人，投资于基础设施、住房以及“绿化”经济。


This would simultaneously plug a hole in demand and improve the economy’s long-term growth prospects.	这样一来，可以在填补需求不足的同时改善经济的长期增长前景。


There are signs that officials in the UK and the United States are starting to move in this direction.	有迹象表明，英国和美国的官员正在开始向这一方向努力。


If nothing works, it will be time to sprinkle the country with what Milton Friedman called “helicopter money” – that is, put purchasing power directly into people’s pockets, by giving every household a spending voucher with an expiration date.	如果什么都无法奏效，那么就是时候朝国内抛洒弗里德曼所谓的“直升飞机钞票”了——也就是说，通过向每个家庭发放过期作废的消费券来直接增加人民购买力。


This would at least keep the economy afloat pending the development of the longer-term investment program.	这至少能够在长期投资项目开发期内维持经济增长。


It would be better if such schemes could be agreed upon by all by G-20 countries, as was briefly the case in the coordinated stimulus of April 2009.	如果G20能够在此类机制上达成一致，那就更好了，2009年4月的合作刺激就属于这一情形。


If not, groups of countries should pursue them on their own.	如果达不到，那么国家集团可以追求各自自己的合作机制。


The European Union desperately needs a growth strategy.	欧盟急需增长战略。


Its current bailout schemes only help countries like Greece and Italy to borrow money cheaply in the face of prohibitively high market interest rates, while the schemes’ insistence on more budget-deficit reduction in these countries will reduce European purchasing power further.	其当前援助机制只能帮助像希腊和意大利那样的国家在市场利率畸高时一较低成本借钱，但该机制坚持这些国家必须进一步削减预算赤字，这会恶化欧洲人的购买力。


The recipient governments will have to cut their spending; the banks will have to take large losses.	接受这一机制的政府将不得不削减支出； 银行将不得不承受巨额损失。


In the long run, the eurozone must be recognized as a failed experiment.	从长期看，欧元区注定是一场失败的实验。


It should be reconstituted with far fewer members, including only countries that do not run persistent current-account deficits.	欧元区应该重新组织，大大减少成员国数量，只包括不存在持久经常项目赤字的国家。


Everything else that has been proposed to save the eurozone in its current form – a central treasury, a monetary authority that does more than target inflation, fiscal harmonization, a new treaty – is a political pipe dream.	其他所有旨在在当前框架内拯救欧元区的努力——中央财政部也好，不局限于通胀目标的货币当局也好，新条约也好——都只能是白日梦。


The War Against Iraqi Women	针对伊拉克妇女的战争


BAGHDAD – Iraqi women’s organizations and international observers point to an escalating war against women in Iraq, aided by the widespread chaos and lawlessness under the US occupation.	巴格达amp#45;amp#45;伊拉克各个妇女组织和国际观察员指出，一场日益升级的战争正在对伊拉克妇女展开，而在美国占领之下大范围的混乱和无法无天使得形势更加严重。


In addition to violence by US troops inside and outside of prisons, women in Iraq face daily violence from militants under the guise of religion and “liberation.”	除了美国士兵在监狱内外的暴力之外，伊拉克妇女每天都面临来自武装人员假借宗教和“解放”名义施加的暴力。


In Iraq’s second largest city, Basra, a stronghold of conservative Shia groups, as many as 133 women were killed last year for violating “Islamic teachings” and in so-called “honor killings,” according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.	伊拉克第二大城市巴士拉是保守派什叶派团体的据点。 根据联合国人道主义事务协调办公室的报告，去年在那里有133名妇女由于违反“伊斯兰教义”和在所谓的“荣誉杀生”中被杀害。


The methods are brutal evidence of a backlash by previously subdued tribal forces that have been unleashed by the occupation: women strangled and beheaded, and their hands, arms and legs chopped off.	杀害手段残忍无比，表明了原先被镇压的部落力量由于占领而东山再起。 妇女们被绞死或者砍头，她们的手、胳膊以及腿被剁掉。


With US forces in Iraq now funding both Sunni and Shia tribal leaders in an effort to stabilize the country, conditions for women grow deadlier by the day.	美国军队在伊拉克同时给逊尼派和什叶派领导人予以资助企图稳定伊拉克，妇女们的状况日益恶化。


Islamist leaders have imposed new restrictions on women, including prohibitions on work, bans on travel without a muhram (male guardian), and compulsory veiling.	伊斯兰领导人对妇女实行了新的限制，包括禁止工作，禁止在没有男子保护人的陪同下外出以及强制蒙面。


According to the Organization of Women’s Freedom in Iraq (OWFI), formed in Baghdad in 2003, women are harassed if they appear in the streets of most Iraqi cities and towns, educational institutions, or work places.	根据在2003年成立于巴格达的伊拉克妇女自由组织的说法，如果妇女出现在大多数伊拉克城市和乡镇的街头、教育机构或者工作场所，她们就会收到骚扰。


Now there are even “no woman zones” in some southern cities controlled by Islamist parties and tribal leaders.	在某些南部城市甚至出现了由伊斯兰政党以及部落领导人控制的“禁止妇女区域”。


Honor killings of Iraqi women are justified by alleged promiscuity or adultery.	对伊拉克妇女实行“荣誉杀生”的理由是被指控的男女乱伦或者私通。


In fact, the practice targets holders of PhD’s, professionals, political activists, and office workers.	实际上，这一做法就是针对博士、专业人员、政治活动份子以及办公室职工。


“Politically active women, those who did not follow a strict dress code, and women human rights defenders were increasingly at risk of abuse, including by armed groups and religious extremists,” Amnesty International said in its 2007 report.	大赦国际在2007年的报告中说，那些并不遵从严格的穿衣规定的在政治上活跃的妇女以及女性人权捍卫者越发容易被欺凌，包括受到武装团伙以及宗教极端份子的欺凌。


Indeed, a top police official in Basra reported that as many as 15 women are killed every month in the city.	确实，在巴士拉的一位最高级别的警官报告说，在这一城市里每个月都有15名妇女被杀。


Ambulance drivers in Basra, paid to “clean the streets” before people go to work, pick up many more bodies of women every morning.	巴士拉的救护车司机受雇在人们上班以前“清理街道”，每天清晨都会收起更多妇女的尸体。


Ironically, the forces leading this assault on women had little or no power under Saddam Hussein.	具有讽刺意味的是，引导对妇女进行攻击的这些势力在萨达姆侯塞因掌权的时候根本就毫无实力。


But, following the US-led invasion in 2003, southern Iraq was opened to forces known as Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (PVPV) – militant gangs and individuals committed to archaic Islamic rule and suppression of women’s rights.	但是随着2003年美国主导的入侵，伊拉克南部一个叫做弘扬美德防止罪行的组织横行霸道。 这一组织都是一些武装匪徒和坚持过时废弃的伊斯兰教规并且压制妇女权利的人组成。


Some members of these groups now serve in government, others in militias or as self-appointed vigilantes or hired guns.	这些团伙的成员现在有的在政府有的在民兵谋事，还有一些则是自我任命的义务警员或者雇佣枪手。


The goal of the PVPV is to confine women to the domestic realm and end all female participation in public and political life.	这一组织的目标就是把妇女局限在家里并且在公共和政治生活中结束所有妇女的参与。


To date, Iraqi officials have not been willing to deal with this escalating violence against women, or even to discuss it.	目前为止，伊拉克官员还并不愿意处理针对妇女不断升级的暴力，甚至不愿讨论这一问题。


But, as elected representatives, they are obligated to address these crimes.	但是，作为经选举产生的代表，他们有义务处理这些犯罪问题。


So must the US.	因此美国就必须如此。


Under the Fourth Geneva Convention, the responsibility for protecting civilian populations in an occupied country belongs to the occupying forces, which, in this case, are clearly failing to protect Iraqi women.	日内瓦第四公约规定，在被占领国家保护平民的责任属于占领军。 在这一情况下，美军明显没有保护伊拉克妇女。


Two measures are urgently needed.	现在急需采取两项措施。


First, the Iraqi government must immediately establish “Protection of Women” security patrols in Iraq’s southern cities.	首先，伊拉克政府必须立即在伊拉克南部城市建立“妇女保护”安全巡逻。


These patrols must receive gender-sensitive training and prioritize women’s security over tribal or fundamentalist religious values.	这些巡逻队伍必须接受性别敏感培训并且把妇女的安全置于部落或者原教旨主义宗教价值观之上。


Second, pursuant to its obligations under the Geneva Convention, the US must immediately take steps to protect the lives and freedoms of Iraqi civilians. Unless the US does so, it must withdraw from Iraq, because the occupation would merely continue to sustain a breeding ground for violence against women.	第二，美国应该根据其在日内瓦公约承担的义务立即采取行动保护伊拉克平民的生命和自由。 除非美国这样做，否则它就必须撤离伊拉克，因为这一占领将会仅仅是继续维持针对妇女施加的暴力流血之地。


The timetable for action is not subject to debate.	采取行动的时间表不容辩论。


It must begin today.	现在就应该开始。


The War Against Iraq’s Children	战乱中的伊拉克儿童


Iraq’s children have suffered more than just successive wars and economic sanctions.	让伊拉克儿童遭受痛苦的不仅是绵延战乱和经济制裁。


The loss of parents and family resources has boosted child labor, homelessness, and inclinations towards violence and rebellion.	父母和家庭资源的缺失引发了儿童劳工、无家可归和暴力及反叛等问题。


They often now live in homes where 25 people live in a space of 40 square meters.	他们现在的居家环境通常是25个人挤在40平方米的空间里。


Even intact families may comprise parents and five children in a single six-meter room.	甚至连完整的家庭也可能是父母和5个子女居住在六米见方的一居室里。


The increase in child labor reflects families’ dire economic situation: children are frequently a family’s only breadwinners, and they work cheap.	儿童劳工的增加直接反映了家庭的经济状况：儿童经常是家庭中唯一的收入来源，而且还是廉价劳力。


Contractors in municipal services, for example, prefer to use children in order to cut costs.	例如，市政工程的承包商就愿意使用童工以降低成本。


Here, a child may be used for agricultural labor or for janitorial work.	在此情况下，儿童可以被用作农业劳力或是从事看门一类的工作。


Many work in piles of garbage, either removing them to another place or collecting empty bottles and cans to sell.	许多儿童在垃圾堆里出没，要么将垃圾运到其他地方，要么收集空瓶罐卖钱。


Other children load and transport items in the markets, where they must pull carts weighing 60-70 kilograms and carry boxes weighing 15 kilograms in temperatures of 50 degrees centigrade.	其他的儿童在市场从事装卸和搬运货物的工作。 他们必须在50摄氏度的气温下拉动重量为60-70公斤的货车并搬运15公斤重的货箱。


Two children may unload a truck carrying 1,000 kilograms of food items.	两名儿童可能会负责给一辆装载着1000公斤食品的卡车卸货。


Not surprisingly, Iraq’s child workers suffer from a wide array of serious health problems.	因此，伊拉克的儿童劳工遭遇一系列严重的健康问题也就不足为奇了。


Children who work in the garbage dumps are prone to skin and respiratory problems, while those who work with paints eventually become addicted to the intoxicants that they inhale.	在垃圾堆里工作的儿童容易发生皮肤和呼吸系统的问题，那些与油漆打交道的儿童最终会对他们吸入的有毒物质上瘾。


And all working children are vulnerable to malnutrition, as their diet typically lacks the items necessary to build body tissues.	所有的童工都由于饮食中缺乏人体组织必须的营养成分从而容易发生营养不良的问题。


Nor is there any official authority to protect children and defend their rights in case of incapacitation or sickness.	也没有任何的官方机构在儿童发生残障和疾病的情况下为他们提供保护并捍卫他们的权利。


On the contrary, children are often beaten by family members if they do not provide the daily wage expected of them, or by their bosses when they are inattentive or make a mistake.	相反，儿童常常因为不能提供预期的收入而遭到家庭成员的殴打，或由于粗心或犯错而遭到雇主的体罚。


Indeed, Iraqi children are exposed to beating without regard for their age and for myriad reasons, thus growing up insecure, hostile, and violent.	的确，伊拉克的儿童由于各种原因，不论年龄都经常遭到殴打，因此他们就在这样的环境中成长为缺乏安全感、充满敌意和有暴力倾向的人。


Moreover, they are prone to being kidnapped by criminal gangs, trained to steal or pickpocket, or, worse, placed at the mercy of terrorists for use in attacks.	另外，他们还容易被犯罪团伙挟持，经过训练从事偷盗，或者在更坏的情况下任由恐怖分子摆布，执行袭击任务。


The deterioration of families’ financial situation has also left poor children deprived of educational opportunity.	家庭经济状况的恶化还剥夺了穷困儿童受教育的机会。


For many children, even when they do attend school, the collapse of infrastructure, the unavailability of electricity and water, and high temperatures in the summer are hardly conducive to successful study.	对许多儿童来说，就算是他们有机会上学，基础设施的崩溃、缺水少电和夏季的高温也令他们很难有成效地学习。


The small number of schools, the poor condition of buildings, and the collapse of relationships between students and teachers is also at fault.	学校数量不足，校舍失修和师生关系恶化同样令人担忧。


Older children sit in classrooms with much younger children, growing frustrated and violent, rather than becoming role models for others to emulate.	年龄较大的孩子和小得多的孩子同室上课，会变得挫伤和暴力，而不是成为他人效仿的楷模。


Iraqi girls suffer no less than boys – and often more.	伊拉克女童所遭受的痛苦并不比男童少—甚至更多。


At one end of the spectrum of deprivation, their opportunities are more constrained.	在权力被剥夺的情况下，她们的机会受到更多的制约。


When a family’s income is insufficient to pay school fees for every child, girls are typically denied an education, owing to the traditional belief that marriage is a girl’s final destiny.	当家庭的收入不足以支付每一个子女的学费时，女孩的教育机会常常会被牺牲。 这是认为婚姻是女孩最终归宿的传统观念作祟。


They must perform household chores and are subject to beating if they do not carry out orders issued by male family members.	她们必须从事家务劳动，如果不执行男性家庭成员的指令还可能遭到殴打。


In poor households, they are also likely to receive less food than boys, placing their physical health and development at even greater risk.	在贫困家庭中，他们得到的食物也往往少于男童，从而使她们的身体健康和发育处于更大的风险之中。


At the other end of the spectrum, rape, adultery, early child bearing, and abortion have become ordinary matters.	针对女童的强奸、通奸、早孕和流产的情况也屡见不鲜。


Increasingly, Iraqi girls interpret anything given to them as a means to have sex with them.	伊拉克的女童越来越把任何的物质给与都理解为发生性行为的交换条件。


Orphans, whose number has increased sharply over the past quarter-century as a result of wars, economic sanctions, and terrorism, are especially vulnerable to the cruelest type of physical and psychological violence.	由于过去25年来的战争、经济制裁和恐怖主义而数量激增的孤儿特别容易受到最残酷的身体和精神暴力侵害。


Having lost their homes and parents, they sleep in alleys, sell cigarettes or newspapers, and beg.	失去了家庭和父母，他们露宿小巷、贩卖香烟和报纸，并乞讨。


Grandparents are often unable or unwilling to care for them, and the pathological education given to them by criminal gangs often puts them beyond the reach of any institution’s ability to rehabilitate them.	祖父母通常无力或不愿照顾他们。 犯罪团伙施加给他们的病态教育，常常使任何机构都无力改造他们。


Simply put, children in Iraq have been reduced from human beings worthy of care to tools of production and instruments of violence.	简而言之，伊拉克的儿童已经从需要关爱的人类沦落为生产和暴力的工具。


We are quite literally breeding a new generation of disorder.	毫不夸张地说，我们正在培养着新一代的不安定因素。


The War on “Democratization”	针对“民主化”的战争


The wars in Lebanon and Gaza constitute a grave threat to democratic reform in the southern Mediterranean.	在黎巴嫩和加沙进行的战争给南地中海地区的民主改革构成了严重的威胁。


These wars are inflicting heavy punishment on precisely those peoples who have held fully free and fair elections in the region, while eroding the legitimacy of Israel’s democracy.	这些战争恰恰使那些进行完全自由和公平的选举的民族受到严厉的惩罚，同时也削弱了以色列民主的合法性。


At the time of its “Cedar Revolution” last year, Lebanon was held up as the best example so far of democratization in the Arab world.	在去年进行“雪松革命”时，黎巴嫩被树为阿拉伯世界民主化的榜样。 国际社会当初欢迎这些变革的热情现在似乎已被人遗忘了。


The enthusiasm with which the international community welcomed those changes now seems all but forgotten, which is also true of recent elections in Palestine – another longstanding international demand.	这在最近的巴勒斯坦选举中也同样显现。 这样的选举是国际社会的长期要求。


The signal being sent is clear: it is preferable that Israel, the only state in the region that abides by the rule of law, be surrounded by authoritarian regimes where political outcomes are predictable than by democratic states where Islamists may well rise to power.	发出的信号是清楚的：与其让以色列被伊斯兰主义者也可能掌权的民主国家包围还不如让其被政治结局可以预见的独裁政权围困。


It happened in Palestine, and it could well happen in Egypt if free and fair free elections were held.	这在巴勒斯坦发生了，在实行自由或相对自由的选举的情况下，这也可能在埃及发生。


As a result, Arab nationalist governments feel justified in resisting serious political reform and vindicated in repressing all domestic opposition, particularly the swelling Islamist movements.	有鉴于此，阿拉伯的国家主义政府们认为抗拒严肃的政治改革是完全必要的，而压制国内的反对派，特别是日长夜大的伊斯兰主义运动也是合情合理的。


But it should now be clear to everyone that democratization in the southern Mediterranean cannot bypass Islamist movements, and that the success of that process largely depends on the degree to which their full participation in the political arena is ensured.	但我们现在必须让所有人明白，南地中海地区的民主化不能绕过伊斯兰主义运动，而这一进程的成功在很大程度上有赖于确保该运动全面地参与到政治舞台之中。


Of course, this requires their renouncing violence as a means of achieving power.	当然，这需要它们彻底放弃通过武力来获得权力。


Repressing political Islam, or attempting to “erase” Islamists militarily with total disregard for national political processes (not to mention human life), is not the answer, because it won’t persuade electorates to turn away from Islamist movements.	压制政治伊斯兰教，或不顾国家政治进程（更别说人命），企图以武力“铲除”伊斯兰主义者都不是解决问题的方式。 因为这不能说服选民离弃伊斯兰主义运动。


The efforts of reformist governments in the region to integrate such movements into the public sphere have been dealt a severe blow.	这一地区的改革派政府将这些运动整合到公共领域的努力遭受了沉重的打击。


Democracies have long known that extreme and indiscriminate punishment – which by definition affects friend and foe, combatant and civilian alike – is a grave violation of international law, as the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, has pointed out.	正如联合国人权委员会高级专员Louise Arbour所指出的，民主国家长久以来就明白极端和不分皂白的惩罚—就定义而言，对敌方和友方，对战士和平民都有同样的影响—是对国际法的严重侵犯。


They also know that such action fuels radicalism, leading to the kind of tragic consequences that are all too familiar nowadays.	民主国家也知道这样的行动会助长激进主义，导致那种我们今天都再熟悉不过的悲剧性后果。


Hezbollah is, after all, a creature of Lebanon’s resistance to Israel’s 1982 invasion, now trying to reassert its influence at home and in the wider region by portraying itself as a champion of the Arab-Islamic cause, namely in Palestine.	毕竟，真主党是黎巴嫩在抵抗以色列1982年入侵时的产物。 现在它正通过将自己刻画成阿拉伯—伊斯兰事业，也就是在巴勒斯坦问题上的领军人物，而努力重树自己在国内和更广泛地区的影响力。


Any reinforcement of its power will necessarily weaken Lebanon and the region’s democratic forces.	其权力的任何形式的加强都会削弱黎巴嫩和该地区的民主力量。


The prolonged absence of the United States from truly active engagement in the Middle East peace process is partly to blame for the current situation.	美国在中东和平进程中长时间没有承担起真正积极的职责也是造成当前局势的原因。


For almost six years, there has been no significant US diplomatic initiative to resolve the Palestinian question or to pursue the Syrian track (Israel still occupies the Golan Heights).	近六年以来，美国没有在解决巴勒斯坦问题和继续叙利亚轨道（以色列至今仍占领着戈兰高地）的工作方面做出过任何有意义的外交努力。


Moreover, just when we were beginning to think that the Iraqi tragedy had made the limits of unilateralism and preemptive military strategies clear to all, the Bush administration encourages Israel’s military action – this time against a country that has painfully been attempting to consolidate democratic reform and to reafirm its sovereignty in relation to Syria .	此外，就在我们开始认为伊拉克的悲剧已将单边主义和先发制人的军事战略的局限性昭示天下时，布什政府却纵容以色列的军事行动—这一次是针对一个一直以来在艰难地巩固民主改革并在与叙利亚的关系中重申其主权的国家。


Bush’s most promising initiative, promoting democracy across the Middle East, was already dealt a crippling blow by US intervention in Iraq and the ensuing civil war there.	布什推动中东民主的最看似光明的努力已经由于美国入侵伊拉克和随之而来的伊内战而遭到重创。


Now the project is buried under the weight of America’s inability to protect Lebanon’s fragile democracy and Palestine’s democratic experiment.	而今这一计划更是被美国在保护黎巴嫩脆弱的民主和巴勒斯坦民主实验上的无能葬送了。


The European Union’s feeble response to the warfare in Gaza and Lebanon has oscillated between understanding and condemnation of the disproportionate use of force by Israel (described as “ten eyes for one” by the Finnish presidency), thereby betraying its dependence on the US to end the violence.	欧盟对加沙战事的无力反应在对以色在对比悬殊的情况下使用武力（芬兰总统称之为“十眼还眼”）的理解和谴责之间摇摆，从而表明它也想靠美国来结束这场暴力冲突。


Europeans will have learned nothing from the damaging disunity, and thus weakness, that they displayed during the Iraq war if this conflict does not compel them to speak with one voice.	如果这场冲突还不能让他们用同一个声音说话，那么欧洲人从他们在伊拉克战争中表现出的一盘散沙的致命弱点中就什么也没学到。


What is needed is a European initiative that is backed by a credible military deterrent, consisting of forces from the EU, Turkey, and Arab countries, to be dispatched under a UN mandate to Lebanon and Gaza.	欧洲需要做出的努力就是构建一支由欧盟、土耳其和阿拉伯国家的军队组成的武���，在联合国的授命下进驻黎巴嫩和加沙。


Europe must not only put forward a clear demand for an immediate cease-fire and the end to Syrian and Iranian meddling in Lebanon, it must also provide the means to enforce it as well as massive support for Lebanon’s reconstruction.	欧洲不能仅仅在口头上要求立即停火并让叙利亚和伊朗停止干涉黎巴嫩事务。 它还必须提供实现其要求的方案并为黎巴嫩的重建提供大量的支持。


The EU should decisively back the end of the embargo on Palestine and the urgent creation of a Palestinian state.	欧盟应该坚定地支持解除对巴勒斯坦的禁运和建立巴勒斯坦国家的当务之急。


A common European front could persuade the US to give Lebanon and Palestine enough time to consolidate their national democratic processes, thus isolating the radical elements of Hamas and steering Hezbollah to dissolution of its private army.	一条统一的欧洲阵线可以说服美国给予黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦足够的时间来巩固其国家民主进程，从而孤立哈马斯的极端分子并促使真主党解散其武装。


With the US project in ruins, a credible European policy to delegitimize war and support democratization in its neighborhood has become essential.	在美国的计划彻底失败的情况下，一项以取消战争的合法性和支持邻近地区民主化为目的的可信的欧洲政策就变得至关重要了。


The Water Hegemon	水资源恶霸


NEW DELHI – International discussion about China’s rise has focused on its increasing trade muscle, growing maritime ambitions, and expanding capacity to project military power.	发自新德里——国际上对中国崛起的讨论一般都集中在其日趋强硬的贸易势力，不断膨胀的领海野心以及日益强大的武装投送能力之上。


One critical issue, however, usually escapes attention: China’s rise as a hydro-hegemon with no modern historical parallel.	但有一项关键事务却常常游离于人们的视野之外，那就是中国正逐渐滋长为当今全球独一无二的水资源恶霸。


No other country has ever managed to assume such unchallenged riparian preeminence on a continent by controlling the headwaters of multiple international rivers and manipulating their cross-border flows.	没有一个大陆国家能拥有中国这样无可质疑的河流优势：既占据着多条跨国河流的源头，又能控制这些河流留往他国的水量。


China, the world’s biggest dam builder – with slightly more than half of the approximately 50,000 large dams on the planet – is rapidly accumulating leverage against its neighbors by undertaking massive hydro-engineering projects on transnational rivers.	作为全球最大的水坝制造国，中国拥有全球5000多座大坝中的一半有余，同时还在通过在这些跨国河流上兴建大型水利工程来迅速增大对邻国的影响力。


Asia’s water map fundamentally changed after the 1949 Communist victory in China.	亚洲的水文版图在1949年中国共产党夺得政权后就发生了根本转变。


Most of Asia’s important international rivers originate in territories that were forcibly annexed to the People’s Republic of China. The Tibetan Plateau, for example, is the world’s largest freshwater repository and the source of Asia’s greatest rivers, including those that are the lifeblood for mainland China and South and Southeast Asia.	大多数重要跨国河流的发源地都被迫划归中华人民共和国统治，其中包括西藏高原这个全球最大的淡水储藏区域——许多堪称中国大陆以及南亚，东南亚各国命脉的大河正是发端于此。


Other such Chinese territories contain the headwaters of rivers like the Irtysh, Illy, and Amur, which flow to Russia and Central Asia.	另外还有从中国起源流向俄罗斯和中亚地区的鄂尔齐斯河，伊犁河以及阿穆尔河（黑龙江）。


This makes China the source of cross-border water flows to the largest number of countries in the world.	这使得中国成为全球跨国河流牵涉国家数量最多的源头国家。


Yet China rejects the very notion of water sharing or institutionalized cooperation with downriver countries.	但中国却拒绝与下游国家进行任何水资源流量分享或加入任何合作机制。


Whereas riparian neighbors in Southeast and South Asia are bound by water pacts that they have negotiated between themselves, China does not have a single water treaty with any co-riparian country.	当东南亚和南亚诸国都通过边界谈判签订了水资源协议之时，中国并未与任何下游国家订立任何水资源协议。


Indeed, having its cake and eating it, China is a dialogue partner but not a member of the Mekong River Commission, underscoring its intent not to abide by the Mekong basin community’s rules or take on any legal obligations.	事实上在湄公河享受着相关利益的中国却不是湄公河流域委员会的成员，仅仅只是对话伙伴而已，在这一点上可以看出该国无意受该流域国家集体的管辖或者承担任何法律义务。


Worse, while promoting multilateralism on the world stage, China has given the cold shoulder to multilateral cooperation among river-basin states.	更糟糕的是，在国际舞台上四处鼓吹多边主义的中国却对同流域国家的多边合作冷眼相向。


The lower-Mekong countries, for example, view China’s strategy as an attempt to “divide and conquer.”	对此湄公河下游国家则将中国的战略解读为一种“分化瓦解，逐个征服”的企图。


Although China publicly favors bilateral initiatives over multilateral institutions in addressing water issues, it has not shown any real enthusiasm for meaningful bilateral action.	虽然中国公开宣称对双边协议的兴趣高于多边水资源事务机构，但它却至今未在任何实质性双边行动中表现出真正的热心。


As a result, water has increasingly become a new political divide in the country’s relations with neighbors like India, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Nepal.	于是水资源问题也逐渐成为腐蚀中国与印度、俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦以及尼泊尔等国双边关系的新政治分歧。


China deflects attention from its refusal to share water, or to enter into institutionalized cooperation to manage common rivers sustainably, by flaunting the accords that it has signed on sharing flow statistics with riparian neighbors.	为了把公众主意力从拒绝分享水资源或者拒绝加入可持续地管理河流合作机制等方面引向别处，中国四处宣扬自己与下游国家签订的水流量统计数据分享协议。


These are not agreements to cooperate on shared resources, but rather commercial accords to sell hydrological data that other upstream countries provide free to downriver states.	但这种协议可不是合作分享资源的协定，而是向下游国家有偿提供水文数据的商业协议——须知其他上游国家都是免费提供的。


In fact, by shifting its frenzied dam building from internal rivers to international rivers, China is now locked in water disputes with almost all co-riparian states.	随着其建坝热潮从国内河流转移到跨国河流，中国目前几乎和所有下游国家都产生了水资源纠纷。


Those disputes are bound to worsen, given China’s new focus on erecting mega-dams, best symbolized by its latest addition on the Mekong – the 4,200-megawatt Xiaowan Dam, which dwarfs Paris’s Eiffel Tower in height – and a 38,000-megawatt dam planned on the Brahmaputra at Metog, close to the disputed border with India.	同时中国逐渐将目光转向兆瓦级水电站的举动——最佳例子莫过于最近在湄公河上游澜沧江建成，装机容量4200兆瓦，坝体高度令巴黎埃菲尔铁塔都相形见拙的小湾电站，以及计划在临近中印边界争议地区的雅鲁藏布江墨脱段兴建，装机容量达3. 8万兆哇的水电站——这些争端必将逐渐恶化。


The Metog Dam will be twice as large as the 18,300-megawatt Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest, construction of which uprooted at least 1.7 million Chinese.	中国的三峡水电站装机以1. 83万兆瓦的装机容量位列世界第一，建造过程中产生了170万移民，而墨脱水电站的装机容量则是前者的两倍有余。


In addition, China has identified another mega-dam site on the Brahmaputra at Daduqia, which, like Metog, is to harness the force of a nearly 3,000-meter drop in the river’s height as it takes a sharp southerly turn from the Himalayan range into India, forming the world’s longest and steepest canyon.	此外还中国已经在雅鲁藏布江的大度卡地区确定了另一处兆瓦级水电站选址，此地跟墨脱一样利用河流从喜马拉雅山脉向南急转流向印度过程中近3000米高差所产生的势能，也正是这一势能催生了世界上最长也最陡峭的峡谷。


The Brahmaputra Canyon – twice as deep as the Grand Canyon in the United States – holds Asia’s greatest untapped water reserves.	而雅鲁藏布大峡谷——比美国的大峡谷深一倍——拥有亚洲最为庞大的未开发水资源储量。


The countries likely to bear the brunt of such massive diversion of waters are those located farthest downstream on rivers like the Brahmaputra and Mekong – Bangladesh, whose very future is threatened by climate and environmental change, and Vietnam, a rice bowl of Asia.	而首先受到这种大规模截水工程危害的则是那些位于雅鲁藏布江或者湄公河最下游位置的国家——比如国家前途正在受到气候和环境变化威胁的孟加拉，或者亚洲的稻米大国越南。


China’s water appropriations from the Illy River threaten to turn Kazakhstan’s Lake Balkhash into another Aral Sea, which has shrunk to less than half its original size.	中国对伊犁河水资源的截留也使哈萨克斯坦的巴尔喀什湖面临成为第二个咸海的危险，因为它的面积已经萎缩到不足原来的1/2了。


In addition, China has planned the “Great Western Route,” the proposed third leg of the Great South-North Water Diversion Project – the most ambitious inter-river and inter-basin transfer program ever conceived – whose first two legs, involving internal rivers in China’s ethnic Han heartland, are scheduled to be completed within three years.	此外中国还计划建造“大西线”并使其成为南水北调工程的第三条主干。 南水北调这个人类历史上最具野心的跨河流跨流域调水工程的前两条主干——涉及中国汉文明核心地区的内陆河——即将在三年内完工。


The Great Western Route, centered on the Tibetan Plateau, is designed to divert waters, including from international rivers, to the Yellow River, the main river of water-stressed northern China, which also originates in Tibet.	这条中心位于青藏高原的大西线计划将包括跨国河流在内的河流水资源引入黄河以缓解中���北部的水资源压力，而黄河的发源地也是位于西藏。


With its industry now dominating the global hydropower-equipment market, China has also emerged as the largest dam builder overseas.	随着其水利工业称霸全球水利发电设备市场，中国同时也崛起成为世界最大的水坝建造承包商。


From Pakistani-held Kashmir to Burma’s troubled Kachin and Shan states, China has widened its dam building to disputed or insurgency-torn areas, despite local backlashes.	从巴控克什米尔地区到缅甸的克钦和掸邦，中国正不断扩大在这些冲突地区的水坝建造工程，全然不顾当地人民的反对之声。


For example, units of the People’s Liberation Army are engaged in dam and other strategic projects in the restive, Shia-majority region of Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan-held Kashmir.	比如在巴控克什米尔以什叶派穆斯林为主的吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区，中国人民解放军的某些相关单位就参与了水坝建造以及相关战略项目。


And China’s dam building inside Burma to generate power for export to Chinese provinces has contributed to renewed bloody fighting recently, ending a 17-year ceasefire between the Kachin Independence Army and the government.	而中国为满足其国内省份电力需求而在缅甸境内修建的水坝最近又重新引发了血腥冲突，打破了克钦独立军和缅甸政府之间长达17年的停火状态


As with its territorial and maritime disputes with India, Vietnam, Japan, and others, China is seeking to disrupt the status quo on international-river flows.	在与印度、越南，日本以及其他国家产生领土和领海纠纷的同时，中国也想打破跨国河流的现状。


Persuading it to halt further unilateral appropriation of shared waters has thus become pivotal to Asian peace and stability.	说服中国停止这种截留共有水资源的单边行为将成为关系亚洲和平与稳定的关键支点。


Otherwise, China is likely to emerge as the master of Asia’s water taps, thereby acquiring tremendous leverage over its neighbors’ behavior.	否则的话，中国将崛起成为亚洲水资源的掌控者，并借此对其他各国的行为实施巨大的影响。


The Way Ahead on Climate Change	气候变化的未来之路


NEW YORK – The financial crisis has been uppermost in the minds of most world leaders.	纽约－当前的金融危机已经成为各国领导人心中的头等大事。


Yet, however high the price of a global bail-out, we know one thing: it pales next to the enormous costs – and profound human consequences – of delaying action on climate change.	然而，不管全球救市的代价是多么高昂，有一件事情我们却是知晓的：它在因迟迟不对气候变化采取行动而造成的巨大代价和给人类带来的深远影响面前，仍然是小巫见大巫。


There is a sort of beauty in this predicament: if we act wisely, we can tackle both crises at once.	在现在的困境中存在一种妙处：如果我们能采取明智的行动，那么我们就能一举解决这两个危机。


Climate change negotiations over the next year offer an unprecedented opportunity to build a more profitable, safer, and sustainable global economy.	未来一年关于气候变化的谈判，为建立一个更有利可图、更安全以及更具有可持续性的全球经济体系提供了前所未有的机遇。


Today’s challenges – finance, food, and energy, for example – are many.	今天我们面临多重挑战——例如，金融、食物和能源方面的挑战。


Yet they share a root cause, whereby speculative and often narrow interests have superseded the common interest, common responsibilities, and common sense.	然而，这些挑战都有一个共同的根源，那就是投机并且通常是狭隘的利益僭越于共同利益、共同责任和常识之上。


This same short-term thinking characterizes the world’s dependence on fossil fuels.	同样的短视思维也表现在全球对矿物燃料的依赖上。


We cannot break that dependence overnight.	我们不能在一夜之间摆脱这种依赖。


Yet we recognize that continuing to pour trillions of dollars into carbon-based infrastructure and fossil-fuel subsidies is like investing in sub-prime real estate.	然而，我们已经承认：继续向碳基燃料基础设施和矿物燃料补贴里投入数万亿美金，就像投资次级房地产一样。


In essence, we are mortgaging our children’s future to pay for an inherently unsustainable and inequitable way of life.	本质上，我们是在抵押我们孩子的未来，以维系一种根本不可持续而且偏私的生活方式。


The greatest risk we face lies in continuing down this path.	我们所面临的最大风险，就是我们在这条道路上一直走到黑。


So how do we begin to tackle the massive challenge of retooling our global economy, preserving the planet, and lifting billions out of poverty?	所以，我们应该怎样开始解决重振全球经济、保卫我们的地球以及使几十亿人口脱离贫困的巨大挑战呢？


The answer is to deal seriously with climate change.	上述问题的答案是，认真对待气候变化。


And this is the time to do it – not in spite of the financial crisis, but because of it.	而且，现在就是采取行动的时机——这样做不是无视当前的金融危机，而是因为当前的金融危机。


As the saying goes, a crisis is a terrible thing to waste.	谚语说道，浪费危机是一件可怕的事情。


This week’s gathering in Poznan is an important step.	本周在波兹南的聚会是很重要的一步。


We have only 12 short months to hammer out the elements of a global climate change accord before world leaders convene next December in Copenhagen.	在明年12月份各国领导人在哥本哈根开会之前，构思出一个全球气候变化协定基本内容的时间，只有短短的12个月。


If we work together, guided by a sense of urgency and common destiny, these negotiations can help steer the ship of the global economy toward less turbulent, greener waters and into a safe harbor.	如果我们在紧迫感和同舟共济精神的指导下通力合作，这些谈判就能起到指引全球经济这艘大船驶向更加平静、更加清澄的水域，最后到达一个安全的港湾的作用。


We believe that the best investment in our collective future is to scale up the green, low-carbon economy.	我们认为，对我们共同未来的最好投资就是扩大绿色而低碳的经济的规模。


It is an investment with enormous potential for prosperity and profit.	这种投资具有繁荣经济、创���利润的巨大潜能。


But it requires us to put in place a new climate change agreement now – one that all countries can accept.	但是，它需要我们现在构建出一个全新的气候变化协定——一个所有国家都能接受的协定。


It must be comprehensive and ambitious, and it must set clear targets for emission reductions, adaptation, financing, and technology transfer.	这样的一个协定必须是全面并且雄心勃勃的，同时，它也必须为减排、各国的适应、融资以及技术转让设定明确的目标。


In Poznan, developed and developing nations must find a shared vision of how this will work, striking a deal whereby rich countries lead by example in cutting emissions while providing the developing world with resources and know-how to ramp up their own climate change efforts.	在波兹南，发达国家和发展中国家必须找到怎样实现上述目标的共同的视角，在达成富裕国家在减少炭排放方面起榜样作用的协定的同时，为发展中国家提供必备的资源和技术，以促进这些国家自己在应对气候变化方面的努力。


Energy investment decisions made today will lock in the world’s emissions profile for years to come.	现在作出的能源投资决策将决定今后几年全球炭排放的框架。


Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.	与此同时，时间紧迫。


Potentially catastrophic consequences await, not just for polar bears, but for millions of people.	潜在的灾难性后果正在隐隐逼近，这不只是北极熊的灾难，也是百万人群的灾难。


Adaptation must be a vital part of the negotiations.	各国的适应必须是谈判的重要组成部分。


So must mitigation.	减排也必须囊括其中。


In the cruel calculus of disasters, those least responsible for causing climate change will suffer first and worst from its inevitable effects.	在灾难残酷的后果中，那些最不应该对气候变化负责的人，会首先遭到气候变化不可避免的影响最严重的损害。


Developing nations will need increased financial support to protect the poorest and most vulnerable.	发展中各国需要增加财政支持，来保护那些最贫穷和最容易受到伤害的人。


Reaching an accord in Copenhagen is critical.	在哥本哈根达成一项协议至关重要。


But the route to a greener, lower-carbon future already is being forged in countries from Brazil to Bangladesh, Denmark to Indonesia.	但是，在从巴西到孟加拉、从丹麦到印度尼西亚的许多国家中，旨在铸就一个更加环保、更低碳排放的未来的措施已经在稳步前进。


From investments in renewable energy and flex-fuel vehicles to reforestation, countries everywhere are realizing that green is not an option, but a necessity for recharging their economies and creating millions of jobs.	从对可再生能源和弹性燃料（flex-fuel ）车辆的投资到植树造林增加绿化，世界各国都认识到环保不是一个选择，而是刺激其经济并且创造几百万工作岗位所必需的。


For example, with the right investments, tropical countries could significantly reduce emissions from the forestry sector while also creating green jobs.	例如，如果投资得当，热带国家就能在创造更多绿色岗位的同时，大幅度地减少林业部门的炭排放量。


De-forestation currently accounts for roughly a fifth of all greenhouse-gas emissions.	当前，因破坏森林带来的温室气体排放量，约占温室气体总排放量的五分之一。


Last month, China announced a $586 billion economic stimulus package, some 25% of which is to help bolster conservation, environmental protection, and renewable energy efforts.	上个月，中国宣布了一项5860亿美元的经济刺激计划，其中大约25%的资金将用于帮助支持环境保护以及在可再生能源方面的努力。


We hope that the new stimulus package helps to move China toward greener development, and that countries follow suit.	我们希望，这个新的经济刺激计划能帮助中国向更环保的方向发展，同时其他的国家也能加以效仿。


The United States has also signaled a fundamental, abrupt shift in its global climate policy.	美国也显示了其全球气候政策一个彻底而突然的转变。


In his first, post-election public address, Barack Obama declared that his presidency “will mark a new chapter in America’s leadership on climate change that will strengthen our security and create millions of new jobs.”	在其选举后的第一次公开演讲中，巴拉克·奥巴马宣称，其任期“在美国在气候变化上的领导地位方面，标志着一个增强我们的安全并创造大量的新工作机会的新篇章”。


In marrying the issues of economic revitalization, energy security, and climate change, Obama has articulated clearly the benefits of any Green New Deal.	结合了经济复苏、能源安全和气候变化方面的问题，奥巴马明确地指出了“绿色新政”的诸多好处。


We welcome US re-engagement in global climate negotiations and await its leadership in transforming words into concrete policies that promote global green growth.	我们热烈欢迎美国重新加入全球气候谈判，同时翘首期待其在将话语转换成为促进全球绿色增长的具体政策中的领袖作用。


As the US, China, and many other nations now realize, climate change is much more than an environmental issue.	正如美国、中国和许多其他国家已经意识到的那样，气候变化不只是一个环境问题。


It is an energy, finance, and security issue.	它也是一个能源、金融和安全问题。


Indeed, it is a Head of State issue.	实际上，它是一个“国家元首”级的问题。


We urge other world leaders to join us in forging a shared, long-term vision for cooperative action that is realized at next year’s conference in Copenhagen.	我们敦促世界其他国家的领导人加入我们，一起创造一个在明年的哥本哈根会议实现的合作行动共同而长期的愿景。


Global cooperation has been key to managing the financial crisis.	全球合作在应对金融危机中起到了至关重要的作用。


It is no less vital to managing climate change, for which the stakes are far higher.	它在应对气候变化上也同样重要，因为气候变化涉及到更加重大的利害关系。


Together, we must invest in the safest, surest option – the green economy.	我们必须一起在最安全、最稳当的领域——绿色经济领域——进行投资。


The Way Forward for Global Financial Policy	全球金融政策的前进方向


Financial globalization is exploding.	金融全球化正在呈爆炸性增长。


Yet, as the world’s leading finance ministers and central bankers convene in Washington this month for the semi-annual International Monetary Fund board meetings, policy paralysis continues.	但是，正当世界强国的财政部长和中央银行行长本月聚会华盛顿参加半年一度的国际货币基金组织董事会会议之时，政策瘫痪还在延续。


There is simply no agreement on how to address glaring problems such as America’s increasingly fragile trade deficit, or financial dysfunction in a number of emerging markets.	对于如何处理类似美国日益脆弱的贸易赤字或者新兴经济体中的金融运转不良等引人注目的问题，各国莫衷一是。


This paralysis has three layers.	这一瘫痪存在三个层面。


First, rich countries are deeply reluctant to embrace any collective plan that might impinge on their own domestic policy maneuvers.	首先，富国很不情愿采取任何有可能影响其国内政策腾挪的集体性规划。


The United States is the worst offender.	美国的记录最为不佳。


US Treasury secretaries have always loved to lecture their foreign colleagues on America’s economic perfection, and why every country should seek to emulate it.	美国的财政部长们总是喜欢向他们的外国同事们讲解美国经济如何完善，以及为何各国应当效仿。


Never mind that this logic is now in danger of unraveling along with the US housing market; Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will stick to it.	从来都不管这一逻辑随着美国房地产市场的下滑而处于破产的危险境地，美国财长保尔森依然坚持这一逻辑。


But the fact that the US looks set to borrow almost $900 billion this year from the rest of the world is hardly a sign of US strength and foreign weakness.	但是事实却是，美国看起来将会在今年从世界其他国家借款几乎9千亿美元必定不是什么美国强大而外国虚弱的迹象。


It is difficult to summarize the cacophony of European voices so succinctly.	欧洲各国表达的意见尖锐，难以言简意赅地加以概括。


The French are deeply ambivalent about globalization, as if it were yet another invading force.	法国对于全球化极为模棱两可，好像这是另一个侵略军一样。


The British have nearly the opposite perspective.	英国则观点几乎相左。


Nevertheless, Europeans generally agree that their societies produce the best lifestyles, even if their economies are less efficient than America’s in a Darwinian sense.	但是，欧洲人大体上认为他们的社会产生了最好的生活方式，即使他们的经济在达尔文物竞天择的含义上不比美国的有效率。


Thus, European finance ministers, too, will not be keen to admit any need for major policy changes to deal with risks from financial globalization.	如此，欧洲的财长们也不会乐意承认需要进行任何重大的政策变化来应付金融全球化所带来的风险。


The Japanese typically try to keep quiet.	日本通常试图保持沉默。


As huge winners from globalization, they want to avoid criticism of their trade and financial policies, which arguably remain considerably more protectionist than those of their rich-country counterparts.	作为全球化的大赢家，他们想要避免对他们的贸易和金融政策的批评。 他们的这些政策可以说比其他富有国家的要更为保护主义。


And they certainly don’t want to be pressed to apologize for holding hostage over $800 billion in foreign currency reserves, acquired to resist yen appreciation.	他们扣留8千亿美元外汇储备来抵御日元升值，当然他们也不想为此而道歉。


Developing countries are also at fault.	发展中国家也有错误。


Too many policymakers still believe that externally imposed opening to international capital flows was the main culprit behind the financial crises of the 1990’s – a view that unfortunately is lent some intellectual respectability by a small number of left-leaning academics.	太多的决策者依然相信外部强加的开放国际资本流动是九十年代金融危机的罪魁祸首。 不幸的是，少数左翼倾向的学术界人士让人尊重这一观点。


Never mind that most of the crises could have been avoided, or late least substantially mitigated, if governments had let their currencies float against the dollar, rather than adopting rigid exchange-rate pegs.	人们不管如果各国政府让它们的货币与美元自由浮动，而非采取严格的联系汇率，绝大多数的危机本来可以避免，至少可以大幅度减轻。


Instead, the bogeyman of financial globalization is used as an excuse for continuing to coddle inefficient and monopolistic domestic financial systems.	相反，人们还在使用金融全球化的可怕之处来作为继续娇惯低效率和垄断的国内金融体系的借口。


The inability of backward domestic financial systems to allocate investment efficiently is a big factor pushing funds out of poor countries and into the US.	落后迟钝的国内金融体系无法高效地分配投资是将穷国资金推动出国而流入美国的一个重要因素。


Last but not least, the IMF, as the multilateral agency charged with maintaining global financial stability, ought to be providing more leadership.	最后，但不是最为次要的一点是，国际货币基金组织作为担负维持全球金融稳定职责的多边机构应当提供更大的领导作用。


Indeed, it is probably the only player with the universal political and intellectual legitimacy to find a way forward on collective action to address financial globalization.	实际上，它可能是唯一具有全球性政治和智识合法性来寻求前瞻性集体行动来处理金融全球化的组织。


Unfortunately, the IMF is paralyzed by the need to confront some internal governance problems, the biggest of which is the lack of a sensible way to recalculate the voting shares of countries as their relative influence in the global economy evolves.	不幸的是，解决某些内部管理问题的需要令国际货币基金组织处于瘫痪。 其中最大的问题就是各国在全球经济中相对影响力演变过程中缺乏切合实际的方法来重新计算它们的投票份额。


In particular, a radical increase in the weight of Asia’s vote is urgently needed.	特别是，现在急需大幅度提高亚洲国家的投票加权值。


What, then, should ministers do when they gather in Washington?	那么，当部长们聚集华盛顿之际该如何��为呢？


First, there is the long-standing litany of policy responses needed to deal with the global trade imbalances.	首先，应付全球贸易不平衡所需要的政策应对措施长久以来都是长篇累牍。


These include greater fiscal discipline in the US, greater reliance on domestic demand in both Europe and Asia, and more flexible exchange rates in Asia.	这包括美国采取更大的财政克制，欧洲和亚洲都要更大地依赖国内需求以及亚洲更为灵活的汇率机制。


But it is time to go further and begin to lobby aggressively for faster financial liberalization in the developing world.	但是，现在需要更进一步并且开始积极地游说在发展中国家实行更快的金融自由化。


True, most studies suggest that developing countries ought to precede any sharp opening to international financial markets by liberalizing trade.	确实，大多数研究表明发展中国家应该首先通过贸易自由化然后再大范围地向国际金融市场开放。


Stable macroeconomic policies also need to be in place, while fixed exchange rates are to be avoided.	需要制订稳定的宏观经济政策，同时要避免固定的汇率。


Many developing countries, however, are well on their way to achieving these preconditions.	但是，许多发展中国家正在实现这些前提条件的过程之中。


Ironically, bad memories of the IMF’s first, premature attempt to promote long-term capital market liberalization remain an obstacle today.	具有讽刺意味的是，国际货币基金组织第一个促进资本市场长期自由化的企图仓促而就，其记忆还是今天的一个障碍。


The IMF’s attempt to enshrine capital market liberalization in its charter, coming as it did in the middle of the 1990’s Asian financial crisis, was a public relations disaster.	该组织试图在其章程中确定资本市场自由化恰逢九十年代中期亚洲金融危机，因而成为一场公关灾难。


But it is now time to revisit the idea, at least in a modified and more nuanced form.	但是现在是重新审视这一观点的时候，至少也应当是修订和更为微妙的形式。


Weak financial systems in emerging markets are a major obstacle to balanced development.	新兴市场中脆弱的金融体系是取得平衡发展的主要障碍。


They are also a big factor behind the global trade imbalances.	它们也是全球贸易不平衡背后的巨大因素。


Pushing for greater capital market liberalization after the debacle of the 1990’s will be controversial.	在九十年代金融灾害后推动更大的资本市场自由化将会充满争议。


But the core of the idea was right then, and it is right now.	但是这一观点的核心在当时是正确的，现在也是如此。


In the absence of better mechanisms for capital allocation, global growth in this century will slow down a lot sooner than it should.	在没有更好的资本分配机制的情况下，本世纪的全球增长将会比本应的情况更快地减缓。


Policymakers cannot hide from that reality forever.	决策者们无法永久地躲避这一现实。


The Way Out of Iraq	撤离伊拉克


At last the point has been reached in Iraq where everyone ostensibly wants the same thing: the departure of Coalition forces from the country.	最后，伊拉克各派势力表面终于达成了一致，那就是联军撤离伊拉克。


The recent leak from Britain’s Ministry of Defense of a discussion paper on troop withdrawal highlights this desire.	不久前传出的英国国防部探讨撤军问题的文件再次凸显了上述愿望。


The only question is how to satisfy it.	唯一的问题是如何真正落实。


As long as the Coalition forces stay, violence is likely to escalate.	只要联军留在伊拉克，暴力就可能升级。


But if they leave, it will also escalate, only faster.	可如果他们撤走，暴力也会升级，而且速度只会更快。


So the real question is how to get to the point where Iraq has a police force and army that can be trusted to maintain law as well as order.	因此真正的问题是：如何在伊拉克建立值得信赖的军警部队，从而维护法律和秩序。


Much ground must be covered to get anywhere close.	实现这一目标需要付出很多努力。


Notwithstanding the courage of the many Iraqis who join either the army or the police, no one should be surprised if some have motives that are less than pure.	尽管加入军警部队的很多伊拉克人勇气可嘉，但如果有人动机不纯，我也不会感到奇怪。


In northern Iraq, old scores are being settled and de facto ethnic segregation is being introduced in areas, such as Irbil, that were traditionally diverse.	在伊拉克北部，过去的恩怨正在清算，种族隔离政策正在不少地区推行，比如传统上多民族混居的伊勒比尔就是如此。


In other areas, sharia law is being introduced by force.	在其它地区，伊斯兰教法正在强制推行。


So how can Iraq create uniformed services that can be trusted to enforce the law effectively and impartially, without consideration of ethnicity, religion and gender?	那么如果不考虑民族、宗教和性别的差异，伊拉克该如何建设统一的军队，来公正有效地执行法律？


The traditional answer is to recruit, train, and instill the “right values.”	传统的答案是采用、训练和灌输“正确的价值观”。


But there is not enough time for that. Other ways are needed.	但时间不够，需要找到其它办法。


In the absence of a deeply instilled value system, Iraq needs grassroots civil society organizations that will hold police and army to account.	没有根深蒂固的价值体系，伊拉克需要能使军警部队真正负起责任的基层公民组织。


These could take different forms, but what is important is that they are truly inclusive at a local level, and that they get support from district, regional, and national power structures when they highlight abuses.	虽然形式可以多种多样，但重要的是在底层确实具有包容性，在处理滥用职权的行为时能够得到地区和国家权力架构的有力支持。


If there is local scrutiny, and national reinforcement and recognition of the value of that scrutiny, then most members of the uniformed forces are likely to behave appropriately –and can be more easily identified and dealt with if they don’t.	只有建立国家认可并强制推行的基层审查制度，那么军警部队的多数成员才可能做到依法行事¾万一没有做到，识别和处理起来也会更加容易。


This might appear excessively hopeful, yet in Afghanistan, a country akin to Iraq in many ways, there are groups working towards this goal.	这样的想法似乎过于理想化，但在与伊拉克局势十分相似的阿富汗，却有很多组织以此作为自己的目标。


The Cooperation for Peace and Unity (CPAU) provides a model of how this can be done.	和平团结协作组织（CPAU）为实现这个目标提供了榜样。


In Afghanistan, as in Iraq, ordinary people’s highest priority has been to achieve a reduction in violence.	和伊拉克一样，阿富汗平民最迫切的任务也是遏制暴力。


CPAU worked across the country in the last three years to set up District level Peace Committees, supported by satellite Peace Councils in villages.	过去3年来，CPAU在全国建立了地区和平委员会，由各村所属的和平理事会提供支持。


The initiative faces a culture in which violence is so deeply embedded that children once learned arithmetic by counting numbers of dead Soviet soldiers.	暴力对这项计划的影响是如此根深蒂固，以致于阿富汗儿童曾一度通过数苏联士兵的尸体来学习算术。


The Committees therefore seek to bring together all sections of the community – including teachers, tribal leaders, religious leaders, women, police, soldiers, judges, and businesspeople – to develop ways of resolving conflicts non-violently.	正因如此，委员会努力将所有的团体聚到一起，包括老师、部落首领、宗教领袖、妇女、警察、士兵、法官和商人，共同寻找非暴力解决冲突的有效方法。


Although monitoring has not been a formal part of the role of the committees until now (it is planned for the future), the mere fact that the police, army, and judiciary are part of these committees brings them into contact with the rest of the community, provides feedback, and starts to build trust.	尽管迄今为止监管还没有列入委员会的正式职能（这项职能计划会在今后列入），但警察、军队和司法体系是委员会组成部分的简单事实使他们能够与团体的其它成员亲密接触，提供反馈并开始建立信任。


Some results are remarkable.	有些效果的确是十分显著。


In one workshop, the local military commander came for a couple of hours, as a courtesy, and ended up staying for the whole week.	当地的一位军队司令礼节性地参与了几个小时的讨论，结果在讨论会上呆了整整一个星期。


At the end, he apologized for his violent past and made a commitment to disarm his 2,000-strong private army.	最后，他为自己充满暴力的过往向与会者致歉，承诺解散自己多达2000人的私人部队。


He now visits the Committee offices regularly.	他现在经常拜访委员会的办事处。


In Iraq, projects such as the Humanitarian Liaison Center in Kirkuk are starting to fulfill a monitoring function by offering the ethnically diverse local population the opportunity to bring grievances and get help in having them resolved.	在伊拉克，像基尔库克人道主义联络中心这样的项目正在通过向不同种族的当地居民提供诉苦的机会并协助他们加以解决，担负起监督的职能。


But, too often, even if a court ruling is made, it is not enforced as a result of intimidation.	但太常见的是法庭判决由于暴力的威胁而无法真正执行。


Much good work on strengthening civil society has already been done by American and British forces.	美英军队已经为加强平民社团的力量做出了巨大贡献。


We don’t hear about the workshops for women’s empowerment, or the successful organization of small-scale local elections across the country.	此前我们从未听说过女权组织，或是在全国范围内成功组织过小规模的地方选举。


But mobilizing civil society is hugely challenging, particularly when, as in Iraq, it needs to be done quickly and on a large scale.	但发动平民社团也面临着巨大的挑战，特别是在伊拉克，那里对社团建立的规模和速度都有非常苛刻的要求。


Military force is still necessary, but so are incentives to disarm, including the prospect of economic opportunities that are more fruitful than crime and extortion.	保留军队重要，解散武装的意愿也同样重要，包括比犯罪和敲诈更有成效的经济机会和前景。


Fortunately, building the capacity of civil society is as cheap as it is important.	幸运的是，建设平民社团的开支与它的重要性不成正比。


The Humanitarian Liaison Center serves the whole of Kirkuk at an annual cost of just $75,000 a year.	人道主义联络中心的服务覆盖了整个基尔库克，但每年的花费仅有区区75，000美元。


With $10 million, such centers could be replicated 100 times – with plenty of change left over.	1000万美元可以把服务范围扩大100倍还绰绰有余。


The challenge is to commit to this approach, to scale up and to support to the hilt the brave people who take on the challenge of holding power to account.	我们所面临的挑战是坚持下去，扩大规模和全力支持制约权力的勇敢者。


Otherwise, the Iraqi people are unlikely to get the security that, after so many years of suffering, they so desperately need.	若非如此，伊拉克人民就很难在经历了这么多年的磨难之后，得到他们所迫切期望的和平。


The Mismeasure of Poverty	贫困的错误计量


ROME – In early 2012, outgoing World Bank President Robert Zoellick announced that the Millennium Development Goal of halving the global poverty rate relative to its 1990 level had been achieved in 2010 – five years ahead of schedule.	罗马—2012年初，即将卸任的世界银行行长佐利克宣布，让全球贫困率在1990年水平的基础上下降一半的联合国千年发展目标在2010年实现了，比计划提早了五年。 但许多分析家对基于世行当前贫困线的估计提出了挑战。


But many analysts have challenged estimates that rely on the World Bank’s current poverty line, raised in 2008 from $1 to $1.25 per day, in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.	2008年，世行贫困线从每天1美元提高到了每天1. 25美元（按购买力评价即PPP计算）。


Critics argue that, for methodological reasons, the PPP-based poverty line misrepresents the prevalence of poverty worldwide.	批评者指出，由于方法论原因，基于PPP的贫困线错误地展现了世界贫困地图。


For example, the three rounds of the World Bank’s International Comparison Program that have been conducted so far have each defined the poverty line differently, underscoring the weakness of the current measure.	比如，目前世行已经进行了三轮国际比较计划（International Comparison Program），三轮中的贫困线各不相同，这也表明当前计量标准的脆弱性。


In fact, taking into account inflation in the United States, the poverty line should have been raised to $1.45 per day in 2005.	事实上，考虑到美国的通货膨胀，2005年就应该把贫困线提高到1. 45美元每天。


Improving global poverty estimates – the World Bank’s extend over three decades, beginning in 1981 – requires overcoming three major problems: insufficient survey data, flawed survey execution, and faulty PPP conversions.	改善全球贫困估计——世行在这方面的工作始于1981年，已经进行了三十多年——要求克服三大问题：调查数据不充分、调查执行缺陷以及错误的PPP转换。


Unfortunately, the World Bank’s approach has evaded these issues or addressed them inadequately.	不幸的是，世行的方法逃避了这些问题，或者说没有充分解决它们。


First, many countries lack survey data showing how income and consumption are distributed among their citizens.	首先，许多国家缺少说明收入和消费如何在公民之间分布的调查数据。