It has conducted fair trials and has provided a meaningful appellate process that has led to significant convictions and equally significant acquittals.	ICTY做出了公平的裁决，提供了有意义的上诉机会，既做出了重大的有罪判决，也做出了重大的无罪赦免判决。


Its work has paved the way for the establishment of local courts in Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia that have supplemented its work.	其工作为塞尔维亚、克罗地亚和波斯尼亚补充ICTY工作的地方法院的设立铺平了道路。


By now, hundreds of those responsible for atrocities in the former Yugoslavia in the wars of the 1990’s have been held accountable and have served – or are still serving – judicially ordered prison sentences.	如今，对前南斯拉夫暴行负有责任的数百人得到了问责、服了——有些至今仍然在服——公正审判的徒刑。


The impact of the ICTY worldwide has been multifaceted.	ICTY给世界带来的影响是多方面的。


It has fostered the establishment of additional ad hoc international criminal courts with jurisdiction over such countries as Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Cambodia, and Lebanon.	它孕育了其他临时国际法庭的设立，处理卢旺达、塞拉利昂、柬埔寨和黎巴嫩等国家的事务。


It also provided impetus to the establishment of the International Criminal Court, while encouraging prosecutors in many countries to charge senior officials and guerrilla leaders for war crimes and bring them to trial in national courts.	它还为国际刑事法庭的成立造了势，同时鼓励了许多国家以战争罪起诉高级官员和游击队领袖，把他们带到国民法庭的审判席上。


The recent trial and conviction, in a national court, of former Guatemalan President General Efraín Ríos Montt on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity is only the latest blow against the impunity that previously protected high officials responsible for atrocities.	最近，在国民法庭上，前危地马拉总统蒙特将军（General Efraín Ríos Montt）被控种族灭绝和反人类罪并被判罪名成立，这只是对从前免受暴行罪行惩罚的高官的严重打击的最新例子。


Though the conviction has since been overturned by Guatemala’s Constitutional Court, Ríos Montt joins dozens of former heads of state and government leaders who have been prosecuted for gross abuses of human rights since the ICTY was established.	尽管此后审判被危地马拉宪法法院推翻，但蒙特成为ICTY成立以来有一位因肆意侵犯人权而被起诉的又一名国家和政府领导人，他们的队伍已经扩大到了几十人。


But, despite the achievements of the past 20 years, the movement for international justice is still in its infancy.	但是，尽管过去30年来取得了巨大成就，国际公正运动仍然方兴未艾。


Inevitably, mistakes have been made.	错误是不可避免的。


Even so, the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the ICTY is worth celebrating, because the movement it has led has forced military commanders, guerrilla leaders, and heads of state around the world to take into account the possibility that they will face justice if crimes against humanity are committed on their watch.	尽管如此，ICTY成立20周年的日子仍然值得庆贺，因为它所引发的运动迫使全世界军队司令、游击队领袖和国家首脑考虑面对公正清算的风险，如果他们犯下反人类罪的话。


To that extent, the ICTY has done more than bring a measure of justice to victims and survivors in the former Yugoslavia.	从这个意义上说，ICTY的意义不仅在于带来了给前南斯拉夫受害者和幸存者带来了公正的手段。


It has also contributed to the prevention of injustice in contexts far removed from the Balkans.	它还有助于在与巴尔干截然不同的环境中防止不公正。


The 70% Solution	70%解决方案


BERKELEY – Via a circuitous Internet chain – Paul Krugman of Princeton University quoting Mark Thoma of the University of Oregon reading the Journal of Economic Perspectives – I got a copy of an article written by Emmanuel Saez, whose office is 50 feet from mine, on the same corridor, and the Nobel laureate economist Peter Diamond.	伯克利——通过曲折的互联网链条——普林斯顿大学的克鲁格曼引用俄勒冈大学的汤马（Mark Thoma），汤马则是从《经济展望杂志》上读到——我获得了一份萨伊兹（Emmanuel Saez）的文章——他的办公室和我相距不过50英尺，与诺贝尔奖获得者戴蒙德在同一层。


Saez and Diamond argue that the right marginal tax rate for North Atlantic societies to impose on their richest citizens is 70%.	萨伊兹和戴蒙德指出，正确的北大西洋社会最富公民的边际税率应该是70%。


It is an arresting assertion, given the tax-cut mania that has prevailed in these societies for the past 30 years, but Diamond and Saez’s logic is clear.	这是相当醒目的估算——过去三十年来，该地区一直流行着减税狂热——但戴蒙德和萨伊兹的逻辑是相当明晰的。


The superrich command and control so many resources that they are effectively satiated: increasing or decreasing how much wealth they have has no effect on their happiness.	最富阶层把持和控制着如此之多的资源，以至于他们实际上已经餍足了：在他们的财富中加上一点或拿掉一些对他们的幸福没有任何影响。


So, no matter how large a weight we place on their happiness relative to the happiness of others – whether we regard them as praiseworthy captains of industry who merit their high positions, or as parasitic thieves – we simply cannot do anything to affect it by raising or lowering their tax rates.	因此，不管我们赋予他们相对于其他人的幸福多大的权重——不管我们称他们是劳苦功高的产业掌门人，获得如此高位实至名归，还是认为他们是寄生于社会的窃贼——我们都不能通过增加或降低他们的税率来有所影响。


The unavoidable implication of this argument is that when we calculate what the tax rate for the superrich will be, we should not consider the effect of changing their tax rate on their happiness, for we know that it is zero.	这一观点的一个不可避免的推论是，当我们计算什么才是适合最富阶层的税率时，我们不应该考虑税率改变对他们的幸福的影响，因为我们知道这种影响是零。


Rather, the key question must be the effect of changing their tax rate on the well-being of the rest of us.	关键问题应该是改变他们的税率对其他人福利的影响。


From this simple chain of logic follows the conclusion that we have a moral obligation to tax our superrich at the peak of the Laffer Curve: to tax them so heavily that we raise the most possible money from them – to the point beyond which their diversion of energy and enterprise into tax avoidance and sheltering would mean that any extra taxes would not raise but reduce revenue.	根据这一简单的逻辑链，我们可以得出这样的结论：我们有道德上的义务将最富阶层的税率设置在拉弗曲线（Laffer Curve）的最高点，即对他们的税率要高到我们尽可能从他们身上筹到最多的资金的程度，也就是说，要克服他们通过能源和企业的多元化实现的避税，使逃税行为会导致额外的使他们的收入减少而不是增多。


The utilitarian economic logic is clear.	其中的功利经济逻辑是显然的。


Yet more than half of us are likely to reject the conclusion reached by Diamond and Saez.	但我们大部分人可能会拒绝接受戴蒙德和萨伊兹的结论。


We feel that there is something wrong with taxing our superrich until the pips squeak so much that further taxation reduces the number of pips.	我们觉得，对最富阶层征税总有点不正道，，除非加税会让哔哔作响的征税系统安静下来。


And we feel this for two reasons, both of them set out more than two centuries ago by Adam Smith – not in his most famous work, The Wealth of Nations, but in his far less discussed book The Theory of Moral Sentiments.	我们之所以会有这样的感觉，原因有二，这两个原因亚当·斯密在200年前就阐明了——并非在其名著《国富论》，而是在较少提及的《道德情操论》中。


The first reason applies to the idle rich.	第一个原因适用于富裕的有闲阶级。


According to Smith,	斯密说：


“A stranger to human nature, who saw the indifference of men about the misery of their inferiors, and the regret and indignation which they feel for the misfortunes and sufferings of those above them, would be apt to imagine, that pain must be more agonizing, and the convulsions of death more terrible to persons of higher rank, than to those of meaner stations...”	 “出于对人类天性的陌生，我们对低于自己的阶层的痛苦无动于衷，而对高于自己的阶层的不幸和苦难感到遗憾和愤慨，我们会选择想象，这些痛苦一定是难以忍受的，层次较高者的垂死挣扎总是比层次较低者更可怕……”


We feel this, Smith believes, because we naturally sympathize with others (if he were writing today, he would surely invoke “mirror neurons”).	斯密认为，我们之所以这样认为，是因为我们天生对他人怀有同情心（如果他在今天写这个话题，他一定会提到“镜像神经元”）。


And the more pleasant our thoughts about individuals or groups are, the more we tend to sympathize with them.	而我们对个体和群体的感觉越愉快，我们就越倾向于同情他们。


The fact that the lifestyles of the rich and famous “seem almost the abstract idea of a perfect and happy state” leads us to “pity…that anything should spoil and corrupt so agreeable a situation!	富人和知名人士的生活方式“几乎是完美和幸福状态的抽象观念”这一事实导致我们“对任何干扰和破坏如此令人愉快的状态……感到遗憾！


We could even wish them immortal...”	我们甚至认为这是不道德的……”


The second reason applies to the hard-working rich, the type of person who	第二个原因适用于勤劳致富的阶层，这类人


“devotes himself forever to the pursuit of wealth and greatness....With the most unrelenting industry he labors night and day....serves those whom he hates, and is obsequious to those whom he despises....[I]n the last dregs of life, his body wasted with toil and diseases, his mind galled and ruffled by the memory of a thousand injuries and disappointments....he begins at last to find that wealth and greatness are mere trinkets of frivolous utility....Power and riches....keep off the summer shower, not the winter storm, but leave him always as much, and sometimes more exposed than before, to anxiety, to fear, and to sorrow; to diseases, to danger, and to death...”	……生活在最底层的人，其身体总是被劳作和病痛折磨着，其思想总是被一次又一次的受伤和失望羞辱和蹂躏着……最终，他发现财富和伟大是可笑的效用的装饰品。 ……权势人物和富人……拿走的是夏日的阵雨，而不是寒冬的凛风，但总是让他像以前一样，甚至比以前更甚地，陷入焦虑、恐惧和悲伤；


In short, on the one hand, we don’t wish to disrupt the perfect felicity of the lifestyles of the rich and famous; on the other hand, we don’t wish to add to the burdens of those who have spent their most precious possession – their time and energy – pursuing baubles.	简言之，一方面，我们不想干扰富人和名人生活方式的完美幸福； 另一方面，我们又不想增加将自己最宝贵的财产——时间和能量——用于追求无用小玩意的人的负担。


These two arguments are not consistent, but that does not matter.	这两种观点并不一致，但这不重要。


They both have a purchase on our thinking.	他们都左右着我们的想法。


Unlike today’s public-finance economists, Smith understood that we are not rational utilitarian calculators.	与今天的公共财政经济学家不同，斯密明白我们并非理性的功利算计者。


Indeed, that is why we have collectively done a very bad job so far in dealing with the enormous rise in inequality between the industrial middle class and the plutocratic superrich that we have witnessed in the last generation.	事实上，这正是为何过去几十年来我们在处理产��中产阶级和富豪阶级不平等性日益严重的问题上屡犯集体错误的原因。


Ms. Watanabe’s Profession	渡边小姐的职业


TOKYO – Ms. Watanabe, age 40, is hesitant.	东京—40岁的渡边小姐很犹豫。


Her mother, Mrs. Watanabe, is known for moving the world’s markets with the financial trading that occupies her breaks from housework.	众所周知，她的母亲渡边夫人用金融交易打发家务劳动间隙，推动者全球市场。


Mrs. Watanabe is the generic name for Japan’s housewife speculators, who have wielded significant influence on foreign exchange and other markets through their trading.	渡边夫人是日本家庭主妇投机客的统称，她们的交易操作在外汇和其他市场上有着重大影响力。


After graduating from university, Mrs. Watanabe quit her job when she married Mr. Watanabe (who worked in the same office), became a housewife, and raised one daughter.	大学毕业后，渡边夫人为了与同一个办公室的渡边先生成婚而辞职，成为家庭主妇并抚养着他们的女儿。


She did this because, in Mrs. Watanabe’s day, marriage was the final workplace.	她之所以如此，是因为在渡边夫人的年代，婚姻就是最终工作场所。


Times are different for her daughter, Ms. Watanabe, who majored in economics at a famous university and was hired by a well-known trading firm.	她女儿的时代就同了。 渡边小姐是主修经济的名牌大学毕业生，在著名贸易公司工作。


But, though she outperformed the men in her recruitment class academically, she was unable to compete for promotion.	但是，尽管她在招聘时的成绩远远高于男同事，却无法在升职竞争中胜出。


She could not even have an official business card (which is more important than a passport in Japan); she had no choice but to make one on her computer.	她甚至无法拥有正式名片（在日本，这比护照还要重要）； 她别无选择，只能在电脑上做一张。


She resolved to hone her skills by following her mother’s example.	她决定效仿母亲的例子打磨自己的技能。


After work, she would attend night school to become an international accountant.	下班后她上夜校学习国际会计课程。


She didn’t like going out drinking with colleagues to complain about their boss; communication through drinking neither improved one’s skills nor helped one to rise through the ranks.	她不与同事外出一边喝酒一边吐槽老板； 通过喝酒联络感情既不能改善技能，也无助于升职。


Ms. Watanabe’s story helps to illustrate a remarkable disparity.	渡边小姐的故事有助于说明令人注目的不平等。


While productivity in Japanese factories is the highest in the world, owing to robots and other types of automation, the productivity of Japan’s white-collar workers is the lowest among OECD countries.	尽管归功于机器人和其他形式的自动化，日本工厂的生产率是世界之最，但日本白领员工的生产率在经合组织国家中垫底。


In 1999, Japan’s Equal Employment Opportunity Act was amended to provide equal employment opportunities for men and women by prohibiting discriminatory labor practices.	1999年，日本平等就业机会法做出了修正，禁止歧视性劳动政策，以实现男性和女性就业机会平等。


But the legislation has had little impact on the workplace atmosphere for women.	但者以立法并没有让女性就业环境出现多少改观。


The other women who joined the company at the same time as Ms. Watanabe married colleagues and quit to devote their time to raising children.	其他和渡边小姐同时加入公司的女士们纷纷与同事结婚，辞职专心养育孩子。


The only difference from her mother’s era was that today’s generation quit, married, and gave birth later.	与渡边小姐母亲的时代唯一不同的是今天的一代辞职、结婚和生育都比较晚。


Women account for more than 80% of those who use childcare leave in Japan; in reality, more than 60% of Japanese women leave the workplace and don’t come back when they have children.	在日本，请育儿假的人群中80%是女性； 在现实中，超过60%的日本女性生孩子之后不会回来工作。


Before she knew it, Ms. Watanabe was in her thirties.	了解这一点时，渡边小姐已过而立之年。


Her mother, Mrs. Watanabe, used the money she had made through financial trading to fund her daughter’s study abroad.	她的母亲渡边夫人用金融交易所得的钱供女儿留学。


Companies pay for men to study abroad, but will not invest in female employees.	公司出钱供男性留学，但不会如此投资女性雇员。


Without other options, Ms. Watanabe took a long-term unpaid leave of absence (which her company typically does not grant to women) to study for an MBA in America.	别无选择的渡边小姐只能以停薪留职的形式（她的公司通常不会给予女性这一待遇）赴美攻读MBA。


Although she returned with excellent grades, her position within the company worsened, because she did not have a boss who could use her skills.	尽管她带着出色的成绩学成归来，她在公司的境遇反而不如从前，因为她缺少能使用她的技能的老板。


One day, Ms. Watanabe received a call from a headhunting firm.	一天，渡边小姐接到了猎头的电话。


She was recruited to work in the accounting department of a Japanese import-export company.	她被一家日资进出口公司的会计部门看上了。


Encouraged by her mother, Ms. Watanabe set her sights on new shores.	在母亲的鼓励下，渡边小姐决意追求新生活。


It was a completely new working environment, but her English skills and MBA proved to be invaluable.	这是一个全新的工作环境，但她的英语技能和MBA文凭大放异彩。


Her work was interesting, and she played an important role.	她的工作很有趣，她的角色很重要。


At times, though, she thought about marriage and children when planning for the future.	但她时不时会想到结婚生子的未来。


Last year, Japan’s government changed, with the Liberal Democratic Party’s return to power.	去年，日本政府改换门庭，自民党重新掌权。


Previously, the LDP had given barely a second thought to women’s issues, focusing only on the needs of business and dealing with an aging society.	此前，自民党从来不会认真思考妇女问题，而只专注于商业和应对老龄化社会的需要。


Now, to Ms. Watanabe’s surprise, it has made women’s policy one of the key aspects of its long-term strategy.	如今，出乎渡边小姐的意料，自民党把妇女政策列为长期战略的关键方面。


To top it off, exchange-listed companies must now appoint at least one female officer.	此外，上市公司必须任命至少一名女性高管。


Ms. Watanabe had heard that companies in Norway or France face delisting if their ratio of female officers falls below 40%, and she joked with her friends that Keidanren (the Japan Business Federation) would vanish under such a law.	渡边小姐听说挪威和法国的公司如果女性官员比例不到40%就会有被下市的危险，她和朋友打趣说，照此规定，经团联就得解散了。


Nonetheless, with each public company in Japan to appoint at least one female officer, it might be her turn someday.	尽管如此，既然所有日本上市公司都得任命至少一名女性高管，那么迟早有一天会轮到她。


But she already is 40, and is thinking of marriage.	但她已经四十岁，正在考虑结婚。


Would maternity leave be possible if she were appointed as an officer?	任命为高管后她还能请到产假吗？


Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government says that it will establish daycare centers, but is this really true?	首相安倍晋三的政府说会建立日托中心，但真的会这样吗？


Ms. Watanabe is hesitant.	渡边小姐犹豫不决。


Should she take up an important role at this stage?	她应该在这一舞台上承担重要角色吗？


Or should she pursue happiness as a woman?	还是应该追求当女人的快乐？


Mrs. Watanabe gives her daughter the nudge she needs.	渡边夫人给了女儿需要的点拨。


Mrs. Watanabe has a talent for seeing how the tide turns.	渡边夫人有看清潮流的天赋。


Her advice is to grab the opportunity at work, and also find happiness in marriage and children.	她的建议是抓住工作机会，同时在婚姻和孩子中找到幸福。


According to an estimate by Kathy Matsui, Chief Japan Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, the country’s GDP could rise by 15%, and 8.2 million new jobs could be created, if Japanese women gain equality of opportunity at work.	据高盛首席日本股票策略是松井凯蒂（Kathy Matsui）的估算，如果日本女性获得平等的��作机会，日本GDP可以增加15%，工作岗位可以增加820万个。


Abe has said that “womanomics” is the most important pillar of “Abenomics,” his government’s growth strategy.	安倍晋三曾说“女性经济学”是“安倍经济学”（其政府的增长战略）最重要的支柱。


Mrs. Watanabe and her daughter have much at stake in its realization.	如若这成为现实，渡边夫人和她的女儿将获益良多。


Emerging Markets’ Nirvana Lost	新兴市场失去的涅槃


SANTIAGO – In the 1970’s, the great Yale University economist Carlos Díaz-Alejandro used to say that the combination of high commodity prices, low world interest rates, and abundant international liquidity would amount to economic nirvana for developing countries.	圣地亚哥—20世纪70年代，耶鲁大学著名经济学家迪亚兹-亚历杭德罗（Carlos Diaz-Alejandro）指出，商品价格高企、全球利率低迷和国际流动性泛滥的组合将给发展中国家带来经济涅槃。


Back then, no sensible economist believed that such a state of grace could ever arrive.	当时，没有哪位经济学家能敏感地认识到可能形成如此有利的条件。


Yet arrive it did, and over the last decade commodity-rich countries like Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa enjoyed its abundant benefits with abandon.	但这一条件确实出现了，在过去十年中，大宗商品富裕国——如巴西、印尼、俄罗斯和南非——恣意地享受着资源富裕带来的好处。


But now nirvana seems to be ending: commodity prices are down, and the mere possibility that the US Federal Reserve may end its policy of quantitative easing has raised market interest rates in the rich countries and sent funds fleeing from once-fashionable emerging markets back to safe havens in the North.	但如今，涅槃似乎正在走向结束：商品价格在下跌，仅仅是美联储退出量化宽松的可能性便已使发达国家市场利率走高、使资金逃离曾经热的发烫的新兴市场，流回北方的安全港。


Stock markets and currencies are plunging, and not just in commodity-rich emerging countries, but also in others, like India and Turkey, that had sucked in huge flows of foreign capital.	股市和货币在崩溃，不仅大宗商品富裕国是如此，印度、土耳其等其他此前吸引了巨量外资流入的国家也是如此。


Pessimists are already seeing a replay of the late-1990’s Asian crisis or, worse, an emerging-market echo of the 2008-2009 crisis in the advanced countries.	悲观者已经看到了20世纪90年代末亚洲危机的重演，甚至2008—2009年发达国家危机在新兴市场的重演。


What the hardest-hit economies have in common are large external deficits.	受打击最大的经济体有一个共同点：存在巨额外部赤字。


Abundant capital inflows caused their exchange rates to appreciate, making imports cheap and unleashing consumption (and sometimes investment) booms that eroded their trade balances, even as rising commodity prices boosted the value of their exports.	过多的资本流入造成它们的货币升值，使进口品变得便宜，形成了侵蚀贸易平衡的消费（有时还有投资）繁荣，尽管商品价格的上涨同时还提高了它们的出口品的价格。


Now the cycle is being reversed and exchange rates must depreciate to facilitate external adjustment.	如今，周期正在逆转，汇率必须贬值以助外部调整。


Anticipating that change – and the prospect of higher interest rates closer to home – foreign investors are taking flight, hastening and sharpening the exchange-rate plunge.	外资预测到了这一变化——利率提高到接近国内的水平——纷纷逃离，这加速了和深化了汇率崩溃。


That is the bad news.	这是坏消息。


The good news (fingers crossed) is that a full-fledged emerging-market financial crisis is unlikely.	好消息（让我们祈祷吧）是，席卷新兴市场的金融危机不太可能发生。


For one thing, this time was different with regard to fiscal behavior, as Luis Felipe Céspedes and I show in a recent paper.	一方面，从财政行为角度看，今时不同往日，我和切丝皮蒂斯（Luis Felipe Céspedes）在最近的论文中指出了这一点。


Commodity-rich governments did not spend the entire windfall and more, as they had done during earlier commodity booms.	大宗商品富于国政府并没有如前几轮商品繁荣期那样将天赐横财挥霍殆尽。


So government debt and the resulting financial vulnerability are not as high as they were in the past.	因此，政府债务以及由此造成的财政脆弱性不如过去那样高。


These countries’ private sectors have borrowed significantly; but, as the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman has been pointing out, leverage and dollar debt are lower (as a share of national income) than they were at the outset of the 1990’s Asian crisis – and at the start of the 1980’s Latin American crisis, for that matter.	这些国家的私人部门负债较重； 但是，正如诺贝尔经济学奖获得者克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）所指出的，杠杆和美元债务比20世纪90年代亚洲危机爆发时低（以占国民收入的比例衡量），也比20世纪90年代拉美危机开始时低。


So, in my view, the question is not whether these countries’ financial sectors will explode, but whether their growth trajectories will implode.	因此，在我看来，问题不在于这些国家的金融部门是否会崩溃，而在于它们的增长轨迹是否会崩溃。


When commodity prices are sky-high and money is cheap and plentiful, economic growth is almost inevitable.	当商品价格一飞冲天、资金充裕而廉价时，经济增长几乎唾手可得。


In Latin America over the last decade, countries with sound macroeconomic policy frameworks, like Colombia, Peru, and Chile, grew rapidly.	在过去十年中，拥有可靠宏观经济政策框架的拉美国家，如哥伦比亚、秘鲁和智利，增长较快。


But so did Argentina, a country whose government seems to start every day wondering what more it can do to weaken economic institutions and damage long-term growth prospects.	但阿根廷也是如此，该国政府的做法好像唯恐不能削弱经济制度、损害其长期增长前景似的。


Now that nirvana is over, where will growth come from?	如今，涅槃已经结束，增长将来自何方？


To answer that question, it helps to note, as Harvard University’s Ricardo Hausmann has done recently, that some of the emerging economies’ recent growth was illusory.	要回答这一问题，注意哈佛大学的豪斯曼（Ricardo Housmann）的最新看法是大有裨益的。


Wall Street became enamored with the rapidly rising dollar value of these countries’ national income, but that rise had more to do with strong commodity prices and appreciating exchange rates (which raised the value of their output when measured in dollars) than with sharp increases in actual output volumes.	豪斯曼指出，一些新兴经济体当前的经济增长根本就是幻觉。 华尔街沉迷于这些国家国民收入美元值的快速上涨，但这一上涨与商品价格和汇率升值（使以美元衡量的产出值升高）关系更大，与实际收入量上涨关系较小。


During the boom years, structural transformation in many emerging economies, particularly in Latin America, was limited.	在繁荣年份，许多新兴经济体，特别是拉美国家的结构性变化受到了限制。


Countries like Ireland, Finland, and Singapore – and also South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia – export different goods (and to different markets) than they did a generation ago.	爱尔兰、芬兰和新加坡等国家——还包括韩国、马来西亚和印尼——所出口的产品与十几年前已有所不同（出口目的地也是如此）。


By contrast, Chile’s export basket is pretty much the same as it was in 1980.	相反，智利的出口组合与1980年别无二致。


There is nothing wrong with exporting copper, wine, fruit, and forest products.	错误不在于出口铜、葡萄酒、水果和木制品。


But economic history suggests that countries seldom – if ever – get rich by doing just that.	但经济史表明，很少有国家（如果有的话）能凭此致富。


Commodity-rich advanced economies like Canada, Norway, or Australia export lots of natural resources, of course, but they also export many other goods and services.	大宗商品富裕的发达国家，比如加拿大、挪威和澳大利亚当然也出口大量自然资源，但它们同样出口许多其他产品和服务。


That is not true of Chile, Peru, or Colombia – or even of Brazil, with its much larger population and more developed industrial base.	智利、秘鲁、哥伦比亚甚至巴西（它人口更多、工业基础更发达）就不是这样。


To make matters worse, unlike their Asian counterparts, Latin America’s economies are not integrated into regional and global value chains.	更糟糕的是，与亚洲新兴经济体不同，拉美国家并未融入地区和全球价值链。


A producer in Indonesia, Malaysia, or the Philippines can easily take advantage of the local currency’s depreciation to sell more electronic components to an assembly plant in China with which it has a long-standing and well-developed supply relationship.	印尼、马来西亚或菲律宾的生产商可以容易地利用本币贬值把更多的电子元件卖给与之有着长期、完善的供应关系的中国组装厂。


A business in Concepción, Arequipa, or Medellín, by contrast, must seek new customers in new countries, which takes time and money – and may not succeed.	相反，康塞普西翁、阿��基帕和麦德林的企业必须在新国家寻找新客户，这费时费钱，还不一定能成功。


Latin American governments could have used the opportunities afforded by the global commodity and liquidity booms to diversify their economies, working with local business communities to move into new products and sectors.	拉美国家政府应该利用全球商品和流动性繁荣的机会实现经济的多元化，与本国商界合作开发新产品和新部门。


They did not.	但它们没有这样做。


In some of these countries, conservative governments viewed industrial promotion as some dirigiste relic from the past, and avoided it.	在一些拉美国家，保守的政府认为产业升级属于过去国家干预主义的遗留，尽力避免。


In others – Brazil comes to mind – left-leaning governments practiced industrial promotion in such a heavy-handed and erratic way that they ended up weakening whatever it was they wanted to promote.	在其他国家——首推巴西——左倾政府以不稳定的强力方式推进产业升级，以至于最终结果是意在推进的部门反而遭到了削弱。


The time has come to pay for these mistakes.	如今，巴西要为此付出代价。


“Nirvana” is defined as the state of freedom from suffering.	 “涅槃”意指通过忍受苦难获得自由状态。


For emerging markets, that state is over; but, in some cases, their citizens – still feeling rich from cheap money and high export prices – have no inkling of the suffering that may be upon them.	对新兴市场来说，这一状态已经过去； 但是，在一些国家，人民并没有感受到可能加在自己头上的苦难，尽管他们仍享受着廉价资金和高昂的出口价格。


For the sake of political stability, governments would be well advised to inform them.	从政治稳定角度看，政府的上策是让他们知道这一点。


The Abuse of History and the Iranian Bomb	滥用历史和伊朗的核武器


TEL AVIV – Saturated with their often tragic history, Jews tend to pay great reverence to the past.	特拉维夫——沉浸在悲剧历史中的犹太人大多对过去抱有一种虔诚的态度。


But the past, especially when not handled with care, can be the enemy of the future and distort our reading of the challenges of the present.	但如果不能谨慎对待过去，就有可能与未来为敌，扭曲我们对当前面临挑战的恰当解读。


This is certainly the case with the analogy that Israeli leaders insist on drawing between the destruction of European Jewry in the Holocaust and the threat posed to the Jewish state by a nuclear-armed Iran.	以色列领导人坚持将大屠杀时毁灭欧洲犹太人与拥有核武器的伊朗给犹太国家造成的威胁相提并论无疑就是一个实例。


Holocaust Remembrance Day in Jerusalem this year again saw Israeli leaders competing with each other in feeding the gloom of the national psyche and public hysteria surrounding Iran’s intentions.	今年耶路撒冷的大屠杀纪念日又一次见证了以色列领导人争先恐后地迎合伊朗意图问题上悲观颓丧的民族心理和在公众中蔓延的歇斯底里情绪。


President Shimon Peres, who, unlike Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, is skeptical of the utility of an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations, spoke of the “threat of extermination” facing Israel.	西蒙·佩雷斯总统的态度有别于本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理，他对攻击伊朗核设施所起的作用持怀疑态度，甚至谈到以色列面临“被消灭的威胁”。


Even Defense Minister Ehud Barak, usually a coolly rational thinker, chose Yad Mordechai, a Kibbutz named after Mordechai Anilewitz, the leader of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising, to alert world opinion against “Holocaust deniers, first and foremost the Iranian president, who calls for the destruction of the Jewish people.”	就连一向以冷静理性著称的国防部长埃胡德·巴拉克也选择以华沙犹太区起义领袖莫迪凯·阿涅莱维奇名字命名的莫迪凯农场来告诫世界舆论，“以伊朗总统为首的大屠杀的否认者鼓吹消灭犹太人。 ”


Netanyahu, not surprisingly, was especially outspoken.	内塔尼亚胡的言论特别直截了当，这也早在人们的意料之中。


To him, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is another Hitler, and the world is now facing the same challenges that it faced on the eve of Hitler’s rise to power.	他眼中的伊朗总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德活脱脱就是希特勒再世，当今世界所面临的挑战与希特勒掌权之前是完全相同的。


Iran’s race to develop nuclear weapons, Netanyahu warned, can be understood only in the context of its leaders’ “repeated vows to wipe the Jewish state off the face of the earth.”	内塔尼亚胡警告说，只有在伊朗领导人“一再发誓要将犹太人从地球表面清洗干净”的大背景下才能恰如其分地理解伊朗核竞赛的含义。


Supposedly, now, as then, the world is criminally indifferent.	在他们看来，这个世界对犯罪无动于衷，这一点和以前并没有什么不同。


Netanyahu’s Holocaust analogy would have been a mere intellectual curiosity if he were not the person who would be responsible for taking the decision about whether to attack Iran’s nuclear installations and thus drive the Middle East into an apocalyptic confrontation.	如果不是由他来负责作出是否袭击伊朗核设施的决策，并因此将中东拖入到一场世界末日的对抗之中的话，内塔尼亚胡的大屠杀比喻也可能只是一种新奇的学术言论。


The career of his political mentor, Menachem Begin, demonstrated that distorted analogies between past and present can inspire irresponsible policies.	内塔尼亚胡政治导师梅纳赫姆·贝京的经历表明，过去和现在的歪曲比较可能会产生出不负责任的政策。


In his disastrous 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Begin perceived himself as a God-sent vindicator of the legacy of the Holocaust.	1982年入侵黎巴嫩时，贝京把自己看作受上帝派遣的大屠杀复仇者。


He chose to portray what was a cynical alliance of convenience between Israel and the Christian Phalange as a lesson to humanity and a rebuke of that hypocritical Christian Europe which had betrayed the Jews during the Holocaust.	他选择将以色列与基督教长枪党之间邪恶的实用联盟视之为人类应当汲取的教训，以及对曾在大屠杀中出卖犹太人的伪善的基督教欧洲势力的一种斥责。


He would show them how the Jewish state, created by Holocaust survivors and now led by one, would come to the rescue of a Christian minority threatened with destruction.	他要向他们证明，由大屠杀幸存者建立并领导的这个犹太国家将如何拯救面临着毁灭威胁的基督教少数民族。


To Begin, Arafat in Beirut was Hitler in his Berlin bunker.	在贝京眼中，贝鲁特的阿拉法特无异于柏林地堡中的希特勒。


Indeed, Abba Eban ridiculed Begin for behaving “as if Israel were a kind of disarmed Costa Rica and the PLO was Napoleon Bonaparte, Alexander the Great, and Attila the Hun all wrapped into one.”	实际上，阿巴·埃班曾嘲笑贝京“把以色列当作被解除武装的哥斯达黎加，而把巴勒斯坦解放组织看成拿破仑·波拿巴、亚历山大大帝和匈奴王阿提拉的联合体。 ”


Begin was the best proof that Israel’s critics needed that the Zionist revolution, although it created a state out of the ashes of the Holocaust, had failed to eradicate the collective self-image of the Jew and the Israeli as victim.	如果以色列批评家需要证明犹太复国主义虽然在大屠杀的灰烬中创立了犹太国，但却无法根除将犹太人和以色列视为牺牲品的集体自我认知的话，那么贝京无疑是最好的例子。


Netanyahu seals the image of Israel as a nation totally incapable of breaking out of the prison of its past.	内塔尼亚胡为以色列的形象打下了烙印，证明以色列根本无法摆脱过去的束缚。


Israel is not wrong to cast serious doubts on the efficacy of the measures that the United States pretends to take in the hope of curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.	以色列质疑美国假意采取的遏制伊朗核目标的措施并没有错。


Neither the planned sanctions nor the recently published US Nuclear Posture Review, a far less revolutionary document than expected, will curb Iran’s nuclear appetite.	无论是拟议中的制裁方案，还是不久前刚刚问世、在革命性方面远低于预期的《美国核态势评估报告》，都无法遏制伊朗在核问题上的胃口。


Instead of believing in its capacity to stop Iran’s nuclear program, the world is preparing to live with a nuclear-armed Iran.	世界各国也从相信有能力阻止伊朗的核计划，转而准备接受一个装备核武器的伊朗。


But this would not be Israel’s problem alone.	但这绝不只是以色列自身的问题。


Such a resounding collapse of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty would pose a formidable challenge to the world community, particularly to the Middle East.	《核不扩散条约》如此引人瞩目的崩溃会给国际社会，特别是中东国家带来可怕的挑战。


Iran’s viciously anti-Semitic rhetoric is a transparent attempt to deceive its terrified Arab neighbors by presenting its military might as the spearhead of an all-Muslim confrontation with Israel.	伊朗充满恶意的仇犹言论通过将伊朗军事力量作为整个穆斯林世界与以色列对峙的先锋，显而易见是要欺骗受到惊吓的阿拉伯邻国。


In fact, a nuclear Iran would launch the entire region into nuclear anarchy.	事实上，有核伊朗会使整个地区陷入到核无政府状态。


Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey would all seek their own “Sunni” bomb to counter the threat of a Shia nuclear empire on their doorsteps.	沙特阿拉伯、埃及和土耳其会寻求各自的“逊尼”核弹，来对抗近在咫尺的什叶派核帝国的威胁。


When he did not feel the need to exploit the solemnity of Holocaust remembrance ceremonies, Barak conveyed the right message to the rising Iranian power.	当他把大屠杀纪念仪式的严肃性放到一边的时候，巴拉克向崛起的伊朗势力传递了恰当的信息。


A year ago, knowing full well that Iran was irreversibly on its way to getting the bomb, he soberly challenged Netanuyahu’s dangerous distortion of history.	一年前，充分认识到伊朗即将拥有核武器这一不可逆转的事实，他清醒地质疑了内塔尼亚胡对历史的危险扭曲。


“Israel is not European Jewry,” Barak said at the time.	“以色列绝不是欧洲犹太人，”巴拉克当时提出。


“We are a strong country to which the whole world attributes nuclear capabilities, and in regional terms we are a superpower.”	“我们是被全世界授予核能力的强国，是地区范围内的超级大国。


He then expressed his dislike for comparing the Iranian threat to the Holocaust, “because it cheapens the Holocaust and stretches current challenges beyond their proper place.	” 而后他表达了自己对将伊朗威胁与大屠杀进行比较的不满，“因为这样做贬低了大屠杀，过高地估计了目前所面临的挑战。


There is none that will dare to destroy Israel.”	没有任何国家敢于摧毁以色列。 ”


History has not come full circle.	历史并没有回到原处。


Israel needs to decide whether it is a regional superpower or a Jewish ghetto waiting for an imminent pogrom to begin.	以色列必须认清自己是一个地区超级大国，还是一个即将面临屠杀的犹太人聚居区。


History in the hands of manipulative politicians and incorrigible ideologues can be either a dangerously inebriating weapon to mobilize the masses, or, as James Joyce put it in Ulysses, “a nightmare” from which it is difficult to wake.	历史在善于操纵的政治家和无可救药的理论家手中或者是麻痹和发动民众的危险工具，或者就像尤利西斯中的詹姆斯·乔伊斯所说，是一场很难醒过来的“噩梦”。


By obsessively filtering their conflict through the nightmare of the Holocaust and the Nakbah, Israelis and Palestinians have doomed the chances of a peaceful settlement of their dispute.	如果过分地将以巴冲突与大屠杀和灾难日的梦魇联系在一起，以色列和巴勒斯坦人将很难有机会和平解决以巴之间的冲突。


Viewing the current conflict between such formidable military powers as Israel and Iran through a similar lens can only breed untold catastrophe.	以同样的方式去看待以色列和伊朗这两大军事强国之间的现有冲突只会带来无穷无尽的灾难性后果。


A Year of Reckoning for France and Europe	法国和欧洲的清算之年


PARIS – France is at a crossroads.	巴黎—法国正站在十字路口。


It has numerous valuable assets, but it cannot postpone long-overdue reforms, or else it will become increasingly irrelevant in a fiercely competitive global economy.	它拥有数不尽的无价资产，但它经不起迟到很久的改革的进一步拖延，否则将会日益被竞争激烈的全球经济抛弃。


This is the economic challenge that President François Hollande, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, and all of us in the French government must confront.	这就是总统奥朗德、总理埃罗和我们所有法国政府官员所必须面对的经济挑战。


We face a historic responsibility: we need to modernize the French economy, and introduce in a few months a decade’s worth of reforms to generate stronger, more inclusive growth, create more jobs, and shrink public deficits.	我们面对着历史的责任：我们需要实现法国经济的现代化，在接个月时间里引入有十年价值的改革，以创造更强劲、更包容的增长，创造更多的职位，削减公共赤字。


This is precisely what the government has been doing since the election earlier this year; indeed, no French government has ever carried out so many reforms in such a short period of time.	这正是今年早些时候大选以来政府所做的事； 事实上，没有哪届法国政府可以在如此之短的时间里实施如此之多的改革。


France’s economic performance has been lackluster during the past ten years, particularly with respect to competitiveness, debt sustainability, public spending, and the labor market.	在过去十年中，法国经济表现可谓暗淡无光，特别是在竞争力、债务可持续性、公共支出和劳动市场诸方面。


Our responsibility is to ensure that we are doing better in each of these areas by 2017, when the current electoral term expires.	我们的责任是确保我们在2017年本届政府到期时在所有这些领域做得更好。


To meet this challenge, we have designed an economic strategy that rests on three pillars: Europe, fiscal consolidation, and competitiveness.	为了面对这一挑战，我们设计了基于三大基石的经济战略：欧洲、财政整合和竞争力。


Europe is our number one priority: stabilizing the eurozone and resolving its current crisis are essential to stability and economic recovery in France.	欧洲是我们最重要的当务之急：稳定欧元区、解决欧元区当前危机是法国稳定和经济复苏的关键。


Hollande’s government insists that we will be successful only if three conditions are met.	奥朗德政府坚持认为，只有三个条件得到满足，我们才能获得成功。


First, Europe should adopt a balanced approach to fiscal consolidation – a necessary process, but self-defeating when carried out too quickly.	首先，欧洲应该采取平衡的财政整合方法——财政整合是必须的过程，但操之过急将弄巧成拙。


We must then break the perverse feedback loop between banking risk and sovereign risk that is at the heart of the euro crisis.	其次，我们必须打破银行风险和主权风险之间的负反馈环——这正是欧元危机的核心。


This requires implementing a fully-fledged banking union – with a pan-European supervisor and a strong regime for banking resolution and deposit insurance – as soon as possible.	这要求形成完全成熟的银行联盟，有一个泛欧洲的监督者和强大的银行破产和存款保险机制，越快越好。


Finally, in the medium to long term, we must complete the eurozone integration process and move forward on solidarity and risk-sharing – for example, by establishing a eurozone-specific budget.	最后，在中期和长期，我们必须完成欧元区一体化过程，沿着团结和风险共担的道路前进，比如建立专门的欧元区预算。


In late November, the eurozone finally agreed on a partial rescheduling of Greece’s debt to alleviate the country’s financial burden.	11月末，欧元区最终就重新安排希腊债务以减轻该国财政负担的问题形成了一致。


It was a critical step toward stabilization, but more must be done.	这是迈向稳定的关键一步，但还有很多事要做。


In 2013, we will have to turn our gaze to other countries (such as Cyprus and Spain), and ensure that we maintain the momentum needed to build a banking union.	2013年，我们将把注意力转向其他国家（如塞浦路斯和西班牙），并确保我们能够维持建立银行联盟所需要的势头。


Fiscal consolidation is the second pillar of France’s economic strategy.	财政整合是法国经济战略的第二大基石。


France has not adopted a balanced budget in the last 30 years, and its public debt reached an unsustainable €1.7 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in 2011.	法国在过去30年里都没有采取平衡预算，其公共债务达到了不可持续的水平（2011年高达1. 7万亿欧元）。


Our duty is to rise to the occasion and reverse the tide.	我们的职责是随机应变，扭转这一趋势。


France is fully committed to a fiscal-consolidation effort that returns it to a balanced budget by 2017.	法国做出了承诺，将采取财政整合措施，到2017年重新实现平衡预算。


This is not just a political commitment; we have enshrined France’s fiscal path in a law adopted in November.	这不仅是一个政治承诺； 11月，我们已将法国的财政路径纳入了法律。


The coming year will be a milestone on this path: France is targeting a 3%-of-GDP budget deficit in 2013, down from 5.2% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012, and a lower debt/GDP ratio from 2014 onward.	明年将是这条路径的一个里程碑：法国在2013年的目标是预算赤字控制在GDP的3%以下，2014年进一步降低债务/GDP比率，而2011年的比率是5. 2%，2012年是4.


This is an ambitious commitment, and one that we intend to meet without resorting to an old-fashioned “tax and spend” fiscal policy: over the next five years, spending cuts will be larger than tax increases, reaching €60 billion over five years.	5%。 这是个雄心勃勃的承诺，我们希望能够在不回到“征税和支出”财政政策老路的情况下兑现它：在未来五年中，支出削减将大于税收增加，五年总共削减600亿欧元。


Obviously we will have to modernize France’s administration to achieve this, looking to other countries for best practices.	显然，为了达到这一目标，我们需要实现法国政府的现代化，以其他国家为榜样看齐。


But the challenge for the coming five years will be to adapt and upgrade our institutions without undermining the quality of public services, which is part and parcel of French competitiveness.	但未来五年得挑战将是��不影响公共服务质量的情况下调整和升级我们的制度，这也是法国竞争力的重要组成部分。


Finally, we have committed ourselves to measures aimed at addressing France’s weakened competitiveness, via a “National Pact for Growth, Competitiveness, and Employment,” which includes a €20 billion cut in labor costs for employers, to be phased in over three years.	最后，我们对自己承诺采取旨在修补法国竞争力不足的措施，办法是通过“增长、竞争力和就业国民公约”（“National Pact for Growth, Competitiveness, and Employment），该公约包括一项未来三年逐步为雇主削减200欧元的劳动成本的计划。


A new corporate-tax credit will cut payroll taxes by 6% for all wages below 2.5 times the minimum wage – a step that will benefit more than 80% of all salaried workers.	新的公司税优惠将把所有低于最低工资2. 5倍的收入税降低6%——该计划将让超过80%的工薪族受惠。


And, because expectations for France’s competitiveness agenda are high, we will ensure swift implementation of the National Pact so that it can start producing results as soon as 2013.	此外，由于人们对法国竞争力日程抱有极高期望，因此我们必须确保加快实施国民公约，从而在2013年就开始收获成效。


We have designed the corporate-tax credit to maximize its positive impact on the economy: labor costs will fall immediately without depressing aggregate demand in 2013, because the spending cuts (€10 billion) and household tax increases that will fund the credit will begin only in 2014.	我们已经设计了公司税优惠措施，以最大化其对经济的积极影响：劳动成本将在2013年立即下降，并且不会抑制总需求，因为支出削减（100亿欧元）和填补税收优惠空缺的家庭税收增加将在2014年开始。


The Pact also improves the business environment and creates mechanisms, such as the extension of a research tax rebate, designed to boost innovation.	公民公约还将改善商业环境、建立扩展旨在提振创新的研究税收优惠等机制。


Last but not least, we have launched a major labor-market reform that will establish our own version of northern Europe’s “flexicurity” model.	最后，我们已经实施了大规模劳动市场改革，这将成为我们自身的北欧“弹性安全”（flexicurity）模式。


Firms need more flexibility to adjust their payrolls in adverse economic conditions; and workers need more security, provided by better training and active labor-market policies.	企业需要更大的弹性从而在不利经济环境中调整岗位； 而工人需要通过培训和积极的劳动市场措施获得更大的安全保障。


We are committed to reforming the French economy.	我们有责任改革法国经济。


But we are committed to doing so while remaining true to our political convictions, and without jeopardizing what makes France both strong and special: a highly redistributive social model.	但我们的责任在于改革经济的同时保持我们的政治信仰，不损害让法国变得强大又特别的元素：高度再分配的社会模式。


Europe is and will be part of the solution, if we can agree that more solidarity is the next step in our shared journey.	欧洲是、也将继续是方案的一部分，如果我们能够就我们的共同方向的下一步是更加团结这一观点形成一致的话。


Europe needs more solidarity not only to overcome the crisis and complete the eurozone integration process, but also to bridge the widening divide between Europe and its peoples.	欧洲需要更加团结，这不仅是为了战胜危机、完成欧元区一体化进程； 也是为了弥合欧洲及其民族之间的日益扩大的分歧。


I look forward to 2013 as a year of progress on our national and European agendas alike.	我认为，2013年将是法国和欧洲日程的进步之年。


They are, after all, two sides of the same coin.	说到底，它们是同一枚硬币的两面。


The Accidental Empire	意外的帝国


NEW YORK – It is now clear that the main cause of the euro crisis is the member states’ surrender of their right to print money to the European Central Bank.	纽约—如今，欧元危机的主要原因已经昭然若揭，那就是成员国将印钱的权利交给了欧洲央行。


They did not understand just what that surrender entailed – and neither did the European authorities.	它们没有弄清楚把印钞大权上交意味着什么——欧洲当局也没有。


When the euro was introduced, regulators allowed banks to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds without setting aside any equity capital, and the ECB discounted all eurozone government bonds on equal terms.	引入欧元后，监管者允许银行买入不限量的政府债券，而不需要为此拔备任何权益资本，欧洲央行给予所有欧元区政府债券完全相同的贴现条件。


Commercial banks found it advantageous to accumulate weaker countries’ bonds to earn a few extra basis points, which caused interest rates to converge across the eurozone.	商业银行发现，囤积疲软国债券以赚取额外几个基点是有利可图的，这导致了整个欧元区利率的趋同。


Germany, struggling with the burdens of reunification, undertook structural reforms and became more competitive.	在与重新统一所带来的负担作斗争的过程中，德国采取了结构性改革，提高了竞争力。


Other countries enjoyed housing and consumption booms on the back of cheap credit, making them less competitive.	其他国家享受着廉价信用带来的房地产和消费繁荣，这让它们失去了竞争力。


Then came the crash of 2008.	接着，2008年大崩溃爆发了。


Governments had to bail out their banks.	政府不得不出手援助银行。


Some of them found themselves in the position of a developing country that had become heavily indebted in a currency that it did not control.	一些国家发现自己陷入了发展中国家的境地：负债累累，且债务货币不为自己所控制。


Reflecting the divergence in economic performance, Europe became divided into creditor and debtor countries.	欧洲分裂为债权国和债务国两大阵营，此乃经济绩效差异的具体表现。


When financial markets discovered that supposedly riskless government bonds might be forced into default, they raised risk premiums dramatically.	当金融市场发现被认为是无风险的政府债券可能出现被迫违约的可能时，风险溢价出现了显著提高。


This rendered potentially insolvent commercial banks, whose balance sheets were loaded with such bonds, giving rise to Europe’s twin sovereign-debt and banking crisis.	这让技术上破产的商业银行无所遁形——它们的资产负债表上满是可能违约的债券——从而造成了欧洲主权债务和银行的孪生危机。


The eurozone is now replicating how the global financial system dealt with such crises in 1982 and again in 1997.	如今，欧元区正在复制全球金融体系1982年和1997年应对此类危机之道。


In both cases, the international authorities inflicted hardship on the periphery in order to protect the center; now Germany is unknowingly playing the same role.	在前两次危机中，国际当局以外围国家为壑保护了核心国家，而如今，德国在不经意间扮演着同样的角色。


The details differ, but the idea is the same: creditors are shifting the entire burden of adjustment onto debtors, while the “center” avoids its own responsibility for the imbalances.	细节上有些差别，但思想是一致的：债权国正在把所有调整负担甩给债务国，而“核心国”撇清了自己在失衡问题上的所有责任。


Interestingly, the terms “center” and “periphery” have crept into usage almost unnoticed.	有趣的是，“核心”和“外围”两词几乎是悄然无声地走入了人们的视野。


Yet, in the euro crisis, the center’s responsibility is even greater than it was in 1982 or 1997: it designed a flawed currency system and failed to correct the defects.	不过，在欧元危机中，核心国的责任要比1982年和1997年更大：核心国设计了一个有缺陷的货币体系，又没能纠正其中的缺陷。


In the 1980’s, Latin America suffered a lost decade; a similar fate now awaits Europe.	20世纪80年代，拉美经历了失去的十年； 如今，欧洲也面临着类似的命运。


At the onset of the crisis, a breakup of the euro was inconceivable: the assets and liabilities denominated in a common currency were so intermingled that a breakup would have led to an uncontrollable meltdown.	危机肇始时，人们还没想到欧元有可能会崩溃：以共同货币计价的资产和债务你中有我，我中有你，欧元的崩溃会造成不可控制的大灾难。


But, as the crisis has progressed, the financial system has become increasingly reordered along national lines.	但是，随着危机的展开，金融系统一复一日地朝着各国各自为政的防线演进着。


This trend has gathered momentum in recent months.	这一趋势在最近接个月中得到了加强。


The ECB’s long-term refinancing operation enabled Spanish and Italian banks to buy their own countries’ bonds and earn a large spread.	欧洲央行的长期再融资操作使得西班牙和意大利银行得以购买本国债券、赚取丰厚的利差。


Simultaneously, banks gave preference to shedding assets outside their national borders, and risk managers try to match assets and liabilities at home, rather than within the eurozone as a whole.	与此同时，银行出现了减磅外国资产的偏好，风险管理者试图用国内资产匹配国内负债，而不是将欧元区作为一个整体这个考虑问题。


If this continued for a few years, a euro breakup would become possible without a meltdown, but it would leave the creditor countries with large claims against debtor countries, which would be difficult to collect.	如果这一趋势持续几年，欧元崩溃或许能够不引发灾难，但仍会让债权国拥有大量债务国债权，而债务国偿还起来困难重重。


In addition to intergovernmental transfers and guarantees, the Bundesbank’s claims against peripheral countries’ central banks within the Target2 clearing system totaled €644 billion ($804 billion) on April 30, and the amount is growing exponentially, owing to capital flight.	4月30日，除了政府间的转移和担保，德国央行在Target2清算系统中对外围国央行的总债权已高达6440亿欧元，且资本外逃的推动下，该数字还在以指数速度增长。


So the crisis keeps growing.	因此，危机还在持续发酵。


Tensions in financial markets have hit new highs.	金融市场的紧张情绪创出了新高。


Most telling is that Britain, which retained control of its currency, enjoys the lowest yields in its history, while the risk premium on Spanish bonds is at a new high.	最显著的指标是仍拥有自身货币控制权的英国国债收益率创下了历史新低，而西班牙债券的风险溢价创出了历史新高。


The real economy of the eurozone is declining, while Germany is booming.	欧元区实体经济正在衰退，但德国享受着繁荣。


This means that the divergence is widening.	这意味着差距在拉大。


The political and social dynamics are also working toward disintegration.	政治和社会动态也在朝分裂的方向发展。


Public opinion, as expressed in recent election results, is increasingly opposed to austerity, and this trend is likely to continue until the policy is reversed.	公共情绪——从最近的选举结果看——正在日益转向反对紧缩，看起来除非紧缩政策得到逆转，否则这一趋势就不会停止。


Something has to give.	必须拿出点什么来。


In my judgment, the authorities have a three-month window during which they could still correct their mistakes and reverse current trends.	根据我的判断，当局还剩三个月的时间可以纠正错误、扭转当前趋势。


That would require some extraordinary policy measures to return conditions closer to normal, and they must conform to existing treaties, which could then be revised in a calmer atmosphere to prevent recurrence of imbalances.	这要求采取非常规政策措施把情况拉回常态，而且这些措施必须满足现行条约，接着，可以在民情略有平复的情况下修改条约，防止失衡复炽。


It is difficult, but not impossible, to identify some extraordinary measures that would meet these tough requirements.	认识那些非常规手段可以满足这些严格的要求不是件容易事，但也不是不可能的任务。


They would have to tackle the banking and the sovereign-debt problems simultaneously, without neglecting to reduce divergences in competitiveness.	银行和主权债务问题必须同时得到处理，抑制竞争力分化之势也不能忽略。


The eurozone needs a banking union: a European deposit-insurance scheme in order to stem capital flight, a European source for financing bank recapitalization, and eurozone-wide supervision and regulation.	欧元区需要一个银行联盟：一个欧洲存款保险机制以防止资本外逃； 一个欧洲资金源以为银行重组提供资金；


The heavily indebted countries need relief on their financing costs.	以及一个泛欧元区监管和监督机构。 重债国需要减轻融资成本。


There are various ways to provide it, but they all require Germany’s active support.	提供这些所需机制的办法很多，但都需要德国的积极支持。


That is where the blockage is.	而这正视问题所在。


German authorities are working feverishly to come up with a set of proposals in time for the European Union summit at the end of June, but all signs suggest that they will offer only the minimum on which the various parties can agree – implying, once again, only temporary relief.	德国当局正忙于在6月底的欧盟峰会上及时地提出一揽子计划，但所有迹象都表明，德国人只会提供各方可以接受的最低限度——这意味着此次缓解又注定只是暂时性的。


But we are at an inflection point.	但我们正处在拐点上。


The Greek crisis is liable to come to a climax in the fall, even if the election produces a government that is willing to abide by Greece’s current agreement with its creditors.	希腊危机可能会在秋季达到高潮，即使愿意遵守当前希腊与债权国协议者在大选中胜出也是如此。


By that time, the German economy will also be weakening, so that Chancellor Angela Merkel will find it even more difficult than today to persuade the German public to accept additional European responsibilities.	到了那时，德国经济可能也已经出现颓势，因此首相默克尔比现在更难说服德国公众接受更多的欧洲责任。


Barring an accident like the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, Germany is likely to do enough to hold the euro together, but the EU will become something very different from the open society that once fired people’s imagination.	为了阻止如雷曼兄弟倒闭这样的事故发生，德国或许会采取足够的行动让欧元生存下来，但欧盟会与曾经颠覆人们想象力的开放社会渐行渐远。


The division between debtor and creditor countries will become permanent, with Germany dominating and the periphery becoming a depressed hinterland.	债权国和债务国的分化将会是持久的，德国将成为主宰，外围国将沦为萧条的穷乡僻壤。


This will inevitably arouse suspicion about Germany’s role in Europe – but any comparison with Germany's past is quite inappropriate.	这将不可避免地引起人们对德国的欧洲角色的质疑——但任何将之与德国的过去进行的比较都是不合适的。


The current situation is due not to a deliberate plan, but to the lack of one.	产生现状的并不是有意为之的计划，而恰恰是缺少这样的计划。


It is a tragedy of policy errors.	这是一个政策失误造成的悲剧。


Germany is a well-functioning democracy with an overwhelming majority for an open society.	德国是一个运转良好的民主国家，压到多数的德国人支持开放社会。


When the German people become aware of the consequences – one hopes not too late – they will want to correct the defects in the euro's design.	当德国人意识到后果时——但愿这一刻不要来得太晚——他们将会愿意纠正欧元的设计缺陷。


It is clear what is needed: a European fiscal authority that is able and willing to reduce the debt burden of the periphery, as well as a banking union.	什么是必须的已经一目了然：一个能够且愿意减轻外围国负担的欧洲财政当局以及一个银行联盟。


Debt relief could take various forms other than Eurobonds, and would be conditional on debtors abiding by the fiscal compact.	债务纾困大可以采取欧元债券之外的方式展开，也可以要求债务国遵守财政契约作为交换条件。


Withdrawing all or part of the relief in case of nonperformance would be a powerful protection against moral hazard.	如果没有进步，就撤回所有的纾困措施，这将有力地消除道德风险。


It is up to Germany to live up to the leadership responsibilities thrust upon it by its own success.	德国必须做出选择，不能辜负了自身成功给自己带来的领导责任。


The Achievement Myth	成就的迷思


NEW YORK – In late September, the American press was filled with data on women’s happiness.	发自纽约——在九月末，全美的报刊版面都充斥着关于妇女幸福感的统计数据。


Marcus Buckingham, a business consultant, made the case that the data showed that women have become less happy over the past 40 years.	一位叫马库斯·白金汉的商业咨询师指出，这些统计数据显示在过去40年中妇女的幸福感在下降。


Blogs, newsmagazines, and daytime talk shows agonized over the notion that feminism – all that freedom, all those choices – was actually making women sadder.	而那些博客，新闻报刊以及日间脱口秀节目则被一种看法所困扰着，那就是女权主义——所有的自由和选择的权利——实际令女性变得越来越沮丧。


In fact, the women had told the researchers whom Buckingham cited that they were ‘not satisfied’ with many areas of their lives.	实际上，那些受访妇女其实是告诉白金汉所引用的那些调查者说，她们对生活的很多方面“感到不满意”。


If Western women have learned anything in the past 40 years, it is how to be unsatisfied with the status quo – an important insight for the rest of the world, as we seek to export Western-style feminism.	而如果说在过去40年中西方女性究竟学到了点什么，那就是如何对现状感到不满——这也是我们在输出西方女权主义价值观时，其他国家的人们必须明白的，非常重要的一点。


There is truth, for good and for ill, to the idea that Western-style “consciousness-raising” is also about teaching women how to be dissatisfied.	但不管究竟是好是坏，西方“意识觉醒”的理念其实也包括了教导女性如何感到不满意。


The contemporary Western women’s movement announced itself in 1963, with Betty Friedan’s The Feminine Mystique and that book’s permission to complain – to identify in many ways “the problem that has no name.”	当代西方女权运动发端于1963年，以贝蒂·弗里丹发表的《女性的迷思》一书为标志，该书允许女性去抱怨——那些可以从多方面来定义的“无名的问题”。


Waves of discourse followed, helping Western women see what was “not enough” in many aspects of their lives, such as the low-paying jobs in which men took credit for their work – and pinched their bottoms.	而此后出版的许多本论著，都是为了帮助西方女性看清她们生活中究竟有什么“不足之处”，比如只能干些报酬低廉的工作，而且好处全给男性占了——甚至还遭到性骚扰。


The movement also raised the bar sexually: Shere Hite let women know in 1973 that if they could not reach orgasm through intercourse alone, they weren’t aberrant – they could ask for more and subtler sexual attention.	这场运动甚至在性的方面也设下了标杆：在1973年，希尔·海特就告诉她的女性同胞们，如果无法通过性交达到性高潮，千万不要认为自己不正常——女性可以在性方面要求更多更细致的关心。


Do you want to run your own business?	你想创业吗？


Go, girl!	那就去吧，女士们！


Do you dream of equal parenting, or of being a Supreme Court Justice?	你想获得父母的平等对待，或成为一位最高法院大法官？


Right on, sister!	完全没问题，姐妹们！


In every area of their lives, those who articulated Western feminism invited women to demand more.	那些高声倡导西方女权主义的人士鼓励女性在她们的生活各个方面提出更多的要求。


But the downside of this aspirational language and philosophy can be a perpetual, personal restlessness.	但是这种极具煽动性的语言和哲学所造成的负面影响，却可能是长期性的个人精神折磨。


Many men and women in the rest of the world – especially in the developing world – observe this in us and are ambivalent about it.	世界上其他国家的男女们——特别是来自发展中国家的那些——在我们身上观察到了这种负面影响，并因此感到非常矛盾。


Indeed, the definition of Western feminism as “always more” has led to a paradox.	不错，以“永不满足”的面孔来定义的西方女权主义的确会导致一个矛盾。


Our girls and young women are unable to relax.	我们女孩们和年轻的女性无法放松自己。


New data in the West reveal that we have not necessarily raised a generation of daughters who are exuding self-respect and self-esteem.	西方社会统计的新数据显示，我们并没有把我们女儿培育成为散发着自信与自尊的一代。


We are raising a generation of girls who are extremely hard on themselves – who set their own personal standards incredibly, even punishingly high – and who don’t give themselves a chance to rest and think, “that’s enough.”	相反，我们却正在把我们的女儿培育成对自己极端苛刻的一代——她们把个人标准定得超乎想象的高，甚至高得有点自我惩罚的味道——最后把自己培育成不给自身一点空间来休息和思考是否“够了”的一代。


What if we in the West, by letting feminism be defined as always doing more, doing it better, and outdoing others, have failed to give our daughters a definition of success that sometimes simply lets them be?	而在西方社会，如果被我们定义为做得更多，做得更好以及超越他人的女权主义却无法为我们的女儿们提供一个成功的定义，能让她们明白维持原状已经很好的话，那该怎么办？


Unfortunately for us in the West, Second Wave feminism was articulated by ambitious, highly educated women who went to elite colleges and viewed professional accomplishment as the apex of overall accomplishment.	但对于身处西方社会中的我们来说，更不幸的是第二波女权运动是由那些雄心勃勃，进入精英大学接受过高等教育的女性所发起的，她们把工作上的成就当作所有成就的顶峰。


Not much space was given to other forms of achievement, such as caring for elderly parents, being a nurturing member of the community, or – how very un-Western! – attaining a certain inner wisdom, insight, or peace.	而留给其他的成就的空间，比如关怀年老的父母，成为社区活动的积极分子，或者——极度非西方的——获得某种内在的智慧，洞见或平静等方面也就不多了。


What if we have externalized the feminist ideal primarily as a set of accomplishments and rigors, rather than embracing it as an expansion of all kinds of freedom – which can also sometimes include freedom from eternal aspiration?	那如果我们只是把女权主义的理念主要表述为一系列的成就和苛责，而不是将其理解为对各种自由的延伸——有时也包括不懈追求完美的自由，又会怎么样呢？


The redefinition of feminism as “always seeking more” fulfills the requirements of consumer capitalism and a post-industrial work ethic.	虽然把女权主义重新定义为“永不满足”满足了消费资本主义和后工业时代工作伦理的要求。


It is not necessarily a victory for women – or men – that, 40 years on, professional women are just as exhausted as professional men traditionally have been.	但对于女性或男性来说，40年来，职业女性与从前的职业男性一样身心疲惫，而这未必就是一种胜利。


When children of working mothers were asked in one recent survey what they wanted to change in their life situation, they did not say that they wanted to spend more time with their mothers. They said that they wished their mothers could be less exhausted and stressed.	在最近的一项调查中，当问及那些职业女性的儿女们自己最想改变的生活现状是什么时，他们的答案并不是想和母亲更多地呆在一起，而是希望他们的母亲不要那么疲惫以及承担那么大压力。


My aunt Anasuya, who is one of my most important role models, delayed conventionally defined achievements in the professional world as she focused on raising a family.	而在这方面我的姨妈阿纳苏亚就是我最重要的榜样，她放弃了去获取职场上的那些所谓成就并把精力放在了家庭上。


Now, with her children grown, she has gone off to Tibet for months to realize her dream of becoming a practitioner of Tibetan medicine.	现在她的孩子们已经长大，而她也终于可以赴西藏几个月去实现自己做一个藏医的梦想。


Feminism certainly opened the way for her to have a life of choices, and now to reach for this unusual goal.	很明显，女权主义曾为她开辟了一条自主选择的生活道路，现在也同样助她实现了这个不平凡的目标。


But I don’t know that feminism made space explicitly to honor what I admire most about her: her open door.	但我所不知道的是，女权主义同时也开辟了一个清晰的生活空间来向她最使我崇拜的个性致敬：她的慷慨。


She is continually taking in students who need a home, or refugee single mothers in economic need, or simply making one more place at the table for teenagers whose parents are struggling with issues of their own.	阿纳苏亚姨妈一直坚持收留那些无家可归的学生和经济拮据的单身母亲，或者仅仅是在自己的餐桌上为那些父母无暇照料的年轻人留双碗筷。


In terms of the way she amplifies the lives of others, hers is one of the most successful “careers” I know – and one pursued while exuding calm, serenity, and peace.	通过这些行为，她扩大了其他人的生活，而这也是我所知道最为成功的“事业”之一，但我姑妈却是怀着冷静，安详和平和的心去追寻这一事业的。


Should Western feminism deepen its definition of a successful woman’s life, so that more than credentials can demonstrate well-made choices?	西方女权主义是否需要继续深化其关于成功女性的人生定义，从而不再需要依靠什么证书来证明究竟什么才是正确的选择呢？


I believe the time is right to do so.	我想现在正是这样做的时候了。


As markets collapse, unemployment skyrockets, and the foundations of our institutions shift in seismic ways, this could be a moment of great opportunity for women and those for whom they care.	随着市场崩溃，失业高涨，还有我们制度基础的剧变，这对于所有女性以及那些她们关心的人来说，现在就是个绝佳的时机。


Perhaps seeing how futile it is to rest one’s sense of self on externalized, professionalized achievement is a wake-up call – and a first step to a deeper freedom, and an even deeper sense of feminine destiny.	可能当我们意识到一个女性将对自身的认识构建那些外在的，职场上的成就之上是多么无意义的时候，就会一种醍醐灌顶的感觉——而这也将成为我们迈向更深的自由，以及对女性命运更深认识的第一步。


The Afghan Endgame Mirage	阿富汗的落幕幻象


STOCKHOLM – On a recent visit to Afghanistan and Pakistan, I could not fail to notice the increasingly frequent international calls for an “endgame” in Afghanistan.	斯托克霍姆—在最近对阿富汗和巴基斯坦的访问中，一件令我不得不关注的事情是国际社会越来越频繁的“结束”阿富汗的声音。


But an endgame for that country is a dangerous illusion: the game will not end, and neither will history.	但阿富汗的结束是危险的幻象：阿富汗大戏不会终结，历史也不会终结。


The only thing that could come to an end is the world’s attention and engagement in Afghanistan, which could well lead to catastrophic consequences.	唯一会终结的东西是世界对阿富汗的关注和参与，而这将导致灾难性后果。


Much international focus is now on the year 2014, the target date for completion of the gradual transfer of responsibility for security from international forces to the Afghan government.	国际社会纷纷将目光投向了2014年，即将国家安全责任从国际部队转交给阿富汗政府的完成期限。


This process is not without challenges, but there is no reason to believe that it could not be finalized more or less according to plan and the current timetable.	这一过程并非一帆风顺，但根据计划和现有时间表，没有理由认为这一过程会没完没了地进行下去，不管结果如何，都必须结束。


My belief is that there is another, far more critical challenge facing Afghanistan in 2014: the election of a new president.	我认为，2014年的阿富汗将面临另一个远为关键的挑战：选举新总统。


In a system where so much power – open and hidden, constitutional and traditional – is centered around the president, the election could well turn into an all-out battle for the country’s future.	在阿富汗，多股势力——公开的或隐藏的，宪政的或传统的——都在觊觎总统宝座，总统大选很可能将成为决定阿富汗未来的大混战。


The presidential election of 2009 – in which Hamid Karzai gained a second term – was a highly contentious affair, and neither the Afghan political system nor the international community came through it with flying colors.	在2009年的总统选举中，卡尔扎伊成功连任。 这次选举充满了争议，不管是阿富汗政治制度还是国际社会，都没有将它视为成功。


Together with the battle over the Taliban’s future role in the country, the struggle for power in 2014 could reanimate divisions that take the country back to the brink of a wider civil war, with the liberal technocrats of Kabul crushed between a resurgent Northern Alliance and a wider “Pashtun Pact.”	2014年的总统之争与塔利班的未来角色之争一起，可能会让分裂局面死灰复燃，将阿富汗推向内战的边缘，喀布尔的技术官僚将受到复起的北方联盟和更广的“普什图公约”两面挤压。


Such a scenario would, of course, spell disaster for Afghanistan.	当然，果真如此，阿富汗将遭遇一场灾难。


But the implications would be far broader.	但其后果还远不限于此。


We must not ignore the grave dangers that it would pose for Pakistan, where a new round of jihadist rhetoric and mobilization could be fatal to hopes of building a stable and more secure country.	我们不能忽略这一情形给巴基斯坦带来的危险。 在巴基斯坦，新一轮圣战呼声和动员可能会将建设稳定安全之国的希望毁于一旦。


We should have learned the lesson of the 1980’s: ignorance is not bliss.	我们必须吸取20世纪80年代的教训：无知是祸不是福。


What, then, is the proper policy for the international community?	那么，眼下国际社会应该作何打算？


First, we must focus on what is most important – a transition to a post-Karzai system that is seen as reasonably legitimate by all parts of Afghanistan.	首先，我们必须关注最重要的事情——向阿富汗各部分都能接受并视为合法的后卡尔扎伊体系过渡。


This is primarily a question of making the elections as free and as fair as possible, and here the United Nations’ role will be critical.	其中最主要的方面是尽可能地让总统大选自由公正，其中，联合国的作用将是关键。


But it is also imperative to establish a wide national consensus on the rules of the game.	此外，另一个重要方面是建立广泛的民族共识，形成游戏规则。


Karzai can leave no better legacy than an orderly transition, and has no interest in seeing all that he has achieved go up in flames.	如果卡尔扎伊可以在任满后保证有序过渡，让其任上所获得成就不致于人走茶凉灰飞烟灭，则可谓善莫大焉。


Second, we must encourage a true regional dialogue that prevents Afghanistan from becoming a battleground for devastating proxy wars.	其次，我们必须鼓励真正能够防止阿富汗沦为灾难性的傀儡战争战场的地区对话。


Here, the key will be to bridge the gulf between Pakistan’s government and the forces of northern Afghanistan.	在这个问题上，关键在于沟通巴基斯坦政府和北方联盟力量。


Pakistan must do whatever is necessary to convince everyone that it will not play a hidden game with the Taliban – assuming, of course, that it has no such intention.	巴基斯坦必须竭尽所能让人相信它不会暗地里与塔利班勾结玩猫腻——当然，是在假设其没有这样的打算的基础上。


It is equally important that Pakistan and India engage in an open dialogue that can establish trust and transparency in their respective policies concerning Afghanistan.	同样重要的是，巴基斯坦和印度可以加入公开对话，以建立各自阿富汗问题政策的信任和透明度。


Today, this dialogue hardly exists, and their mutual maneuvering, fueled by mistrust, could easily destabilize their weaker neighbor.	如今，这样的对话几乎不存在，而印巴两国出于互不信任而进行的相互示威极有可能动摇它们脆弱的近邻。


Finally, for reasons of history, geography, and culture, Iran’s role in Afghanistan cannot and should not be ignored.	最后，从历史、地理和文化考虑，伊朗在阿富汗问题上的作用无法、也不应被忽视。


There is no reason why the West’s strategic objectives concerning Afghanistan should change fundamentally in the coming years.	在未来几年中，没有理由表明西方关于阿富汗的战略目标应该做出重大变化。


The key now is to get our priorities right.	现在的关键是正确认识我们的优先考虑事项。


Securing an orderly political transition and encouraging a deep and broad regional dialogue should now be at the top of the international agenda for Afghanistan.	确保有序的政治过渡并鼓励深入广泛的地区对话应该成为阿富汗问题国际日程的重中之重。


Not only are these objectives important in themselves; they are also central in creating the right framework for a settlement between the various Afghan parties and the Taliban.	这不仅是因为这些目标本身就很重要，也因为它们是创造阿富汗众多派别和塔利班之间的合理和谈框架的核心。


Some now argue that large-scale engagement in Afghanistan was a mistake.	如今，有人认为大面积涉入阿富汗是一个错误。


But, in the mirror of history, we can see that the greater mistake has been to abandon the country altogether.	但是，以史为镜我们可以看到，更大的错误是放弃这个国家。


Afghanistan connects Central and South Asia, and a breakdown of order there would pose grave risks in both directions.	阿富汗是中亚和南亚的连接点，这里的失序将同时威胁到中亚和南亚。


Moreover, the world – not just the West, but Russia and China as well – would risk global proliferation of drugs, weapons, and terror.	此外，世界——不仅是西方世界，也包括俄罗斯和中国——也将面临全球性的毒品、军火和恐怖行动扩散的危险。


The task now is not to seek an illusory endgame.	当务之急不是寻求自欺欺人的结局。


The book is not finished; we are merely entering a new chapter.	阿富汗的章节还没有结束，我们仅仅是进入了新的一回。


What we must do now is create the framework for a more stable Afghanistan, and for sustained international engagement in a region that is crucial for global stability.	现在我们必须做的是为更加稳定的阿富汗、为在一个对全球稳定具有重大意义的地区的可持续的国际介入创造一个框架。


The Age of Authoritarian Democracy	专制民主时代


MOSCOW – The world is currently being shaken by tectonic changes almost too numerous to count: the ongoing economic crisis is accelerating the degradation of international governance and supranational institutions, and both are occurring alongside a massive shift of economic and political power to Asia.	莫斯科——几乎数不清的结构性变革正在撼动着这个世界：不断深化的经济危机正在加速国际治理和超国家机构的蜕变，同时还伴随着经济和政治权力向亚洲地区的大规模转移。


Less than a quarter-century after Francis Fukuyama declared “the end of history,” we seem to have arrived at the dawn of a new age of social and geopolitical upheaval.	在弗朗西斯·福山宣告“历史结束”不到四分之一世纪后，我们似乎面对一个社会及地缘政治巨变的新时代的开始。


Dramatically, the Arab world has been swept by a revolutionary spring, though one that is rapidly becoming a chilly winter.	充满戏剧色彩的是革命的春天刚刚席卷了阿拉伯世界，却在这之后迅速蜕变为凛冽的寒冬。


Indeed, for the most part, the new regimes are combining the old authoritarianism with Islamism, resulting in further social stagnation, resentment, and instability.	实际上在多数情况下，融合了旧有独裁主义和伊斯兰教义的新政权正催生出更多的社会停滞、怨恨和不稳定。


Even more remarkable, however, are the social (and antisocial) grassroots demonstrations that are mushrooming in affluent Western societies.	但更引人注目的是如雨后春笋般出现在富裕西方社会的社会（及反社会）基层示威活动。


These protests have two major causes.	导致上述抗议活动的原因主要有两个。


First, social inequality has grown unabated in the West over the last quarter-century, owing in part to the disappearance of the Soviet Union and, with it, the threat of expansionist communism.	首先，过去25年来社会不平等现象在西方迅速恶化，这部分归因于苏联解体后，扩张共产主义的威胁也随之消失。


The specter of revolution had forced Western elites to use the power of the state to redistribute wealth and nurture the growth of loyal middle classes.	革命的幽灵曾迫使西方精英阶层借助国家权力重新分配财富，从而培育出忠心耿耿的中产阶级。


But, when communism collapsed in its Eurasian heartland, the West’s rich, believing that they had nothing more to fear, pressed to roll back the welfare state, causing inequality to rise rapidly.	可随着共产主义在欧亚心脏地带的溃败，西方富裕阶层认为自己不再需要诚惶诚恐，他们施压终止福利国家政策，从而导致不平等现象迅速崛起。


This was tolerable as long as the overall pie was expanding, but the global financial crisis in 2008 ended that.	只要馅饼总体越做越大这点问题还可以容忍，但2008年的全球金融危机又让这样的好时光成为过去。


Second, over the past 15 years, hundreds of millions of jobs shifted to Asia, which offered inexpensive and often highly skilled labor.	其次，过去15年间，亿万个工作岗位转移到亚洲，那里能够提供廉价但却高度熟练的劳动力。


The West, euphoric from its victory over communism and its seemingly unstoppable economic growth, failed to implement necessary structural reforms (Germany and Sweden were rare exceptions).	而西方则沉浸在对共产主义的胜利和看似势不可挡的经济增长中无法自拔，未能落实必要的结构改革措施（德国和瑞典两国是罕见的例外）。


Instead, Western prosperity relied increasingly on debt.	相反，西方繁荣越来越依赖于举债消费。


But the economic crisis has made it impossible to maintain a good life on borrowed money.	但经济危机断绝了借钱维持美好生活的可能性。


Americans and Europeans are beginning to understand that neither they, nor their children, can assume that they will become wealthier over time.	美国和欧洲人开始认识到无论是他们自己还是子孙后代都不能简单地认为今后会更加富裕。


Governments now face the difficult task of implementing reforms that will hit the majority of voters hardest.	政府现在面临着改革的艰巨任务，而改革会沉重地打击多数选民的利益。


In the meantime, the minority that has benefited financially over the past two decades is unlikely to give up its advantages without a fight.	此外，过去二十年间经济上的少数受益者也不太可能乖乖放弃自己的权利。


All of this cannot fail but to weaken Western democracy’s allure in countries like Russia, where, unlike in the West or to a large extent the Arab world, those who are organizing the massive demonstrations against the government belong to the economic elite.	所有这些注定会削弱西方民主国家对俄罗斯等国的吸引力，这里与西方及阿拉伯世界有着很大的不同，经济精英阶层才是大规模政府抗议活动的组织者。


Theirs is a movement of political reform – demanding more freedom and government accountability – not of social protest, at least not yet.	他们掀起一场政治改革运动——要求扩大自由和政府责任——这项运动与社会抗议活动无关，至少现在依然没有关系。


A few years ago, it was fashionable to worry about the challenge that authoritarian-style capitalism (for example, in China, Singapore, Malaysia, or Russia) presented to Western democratic capitalism.	就在几年前，忧心专制资本主义（如中国、新加坡、马来西亚或俄罗斯）给西方民主资本主义带来的挑战还曾经风靡一时。


Today, the problem is not only economic.	今天的问题已经不仅仅局限在经济领域。


Western capitalism’s model of a society based on near-universal affluence and liberal democracy looks increasingly ineffective compared to the competition.	建立在近乎普遍富裕和自由民主基础上的西方资本主义社会模式与竞争模式相比效率似乎越来越低。


Authoritarian countries’ middle classes may push their leaders toward greater democracy, as in Russia, but Western democracies will also likely become more authoritarian.	俄国等专制国家的中产阶级可能敦促领导人推动民主制度，但西方民主国家也可能会变得更加专制。


Indeed, measured against today’s standards, Charles de Gaulle, Winston Churchill, and Dwight Eisenhower were comparatively authoritarian leaders.	事实上，按照当今的衡量标准，查尔斯·戴高乐、温斯顿·丘吉尔和德怀特·艾森豪威尔都属于比较专制的领袖。


The West will have to re-adopt such an approach, or risk losing out globally as its ultra-right and ultra-left political forces consolidate their positions and its middle classes begin to dissolve.	西方不得不重新采取这样的做法，或者冒险在极右和极左政治���力巩固地位及中产阶级开始消失的过程中丧失全球优势。


We must find ways to prevent the political polarization that gave rise to totalitarian systems – communist and fascist – in the twentieth century.	我们必须想方设法阻止曾在20世纪导致集权制度（共产主义和法西斯主义）的政治两极化。


Fortunately, this is possible.	幸运的是，这是完全可能的。


Communism and fascism were born and took root in societies demoralized by war, which is why all steps should be taken now to prevent the outbreak of war.	共产主义和法西斯主义在战后意志消沉的社会中诞生并深入人心，这也是为什么必须不惜一切代价防止战争的爆发。


This is becoming particularly relevant today, as the smell of war hangs over Iran.	今天这一点变得尤为重要，因为战争的阴云正笼罩在伊朗上方。


Israel, which is facing a surge of hostile sentiment among its neighbors in the wake of their “democratic” upheavals, is not the only interested party.	以色列并非唯一受到影响的国家，它在邻国“民主”巨变伊始不得不面对敌对情绪的激增。


Many people in the advanced countries, and even some in Russia, look increasingly supportive of a war with Iran, despite – or perhaps owing to – the need to address the ongoing global economic crisis and failure of international governance.	发达国家的很多人、甚至俄国某些人似乎越来越支持与伊朗开战，尽管——或许正是因为——当前全球经济危机和国际治理失败的问题必须解决。


At the same time, huge opportunities beckon in times of far-reaching change.	与此同时，在影响深远的变革时代巨大的机遇正向我们召唤。


Billions of people in Asia have extricated themselves from poverty.	亚洲数十亿民众已经摆脱了贫困。


New markets and spheres for applying one’s intellect, education, and talents are appearing constantly.	能够发挥个人智慧、教育和才能的新兴市场及领域正在不断涌现。


The world’s power centers are beginning to counterbalance each other, undermining hegemonic ambitions and heralding a creative instability based on genuine multipolarity, with people gaining greater freedom to define their fate in the global arena.	全世界权力中心开始互相抗衡，这有助于遏制霸权野心，并能够开创真正多极化基础上的创造性的动荡。 民众也因此在全球舞台上获得更大自由来主宰自身命运的走向。


Paradoxically, today’s global changes and challenges offer the potential for both peaceful coexistence and violent conflict.	看似矛盾的是，今天的全球变化和挑战既不排除能够和平共存也有可能引发暴力冲突。


Whether fortunately or not, it is up to us – alone – to determine which future it will be.	未来如何将由我们自己决定，我们自己将决定自己幸运与否。


What America Wants in Egypt	美国在埃及想要什么


PRINCETON – Both the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s liberal opposition are roundly criticizing the United States.	普林斯顿——穆斯林兄弟会和埃及的自由反对派都在严厉地批评美国。


That is hard on Ambassador Anne Patterson, Secretary of State John Kerry, and Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, who just visited Cairo.	安妮·帕特森大使、约翰·克里国务卿和刚刚访问过开罗的威廉·伯恩斯副国务卿的日子也因此变得非常难过。


But it is also evidence that the US is trying to pursue the right policy.	但这恰恰证明美国正试图推行正确的政策。


The US is doing its best to support not a particular party, but rather a conception of liberal democracy that entails free and fair elections and a mode of governance that respects and includes minority views and upholds individual rights.	美国正竭力避免支持特定的政党，而是支持奉行自由公正选举、尊重并听取少数族裔意见、维护个人权利等执政模式的自由民主观。


To pursue this course, however, will require standing up to Israel and Saudi Arabia.	但要想实现这一目标，必须勇敢地面对以色列和沙特阿拉伯。


The young people who led Egypt’s revolution two and a half years ago have been suspicious of the US for the simple reason that it supported former President Hosni Mubarak’s regime for 30 years.	两年半前曾经领导埃及革命的年轻人一直对美国持怀疑态度，因为美国曾在30年时间里支持前总统胡斯尼·穆巴拉克政权。


From the US perspective, President Barack Obama pivoted quickly from Mubarak to the people; but it did not look that way on Cairo’s streets.	从美国的角度看，革命爆发后奥巴马总统迅速放弃穆巴拉克转而支持民众，但开罗街头的民众却不这么看。


When the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi was elected President in 2012, many Egyptians assumed that America must have supported him, because they could not imagine that the US would accept a result that it did not want.	很多埃及人认定穆斯林兄弟会的穆罕默德·穆尔西2012年当选总统背后肯定有美国的支持，因为他们无法想象美国会接受它不想要的结果。


When Patterson tried to work with Morsi’s government in ways that allowed her to pursue US interests, including pushing for more inclusive and rights-respecting policies, the liberal opposition saw her as supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.	当帕特森试图与穆尔西政府合作维护美国的利益，包括推动更加包容并尊重人权的政策时，自由反对派认为她在背后支持穆斯林兄弟会。


But when the US refused to call the Egyptian military’s removal of Morsi a coup (a designation that would have required it to cut off the $1.5 billion in aid provided annually to the Egyptian army), Muslim Brotherhood supporters concluded that America supported the army’s decision.	可是当美国拒绝将迫使穆尔西下台的军事行动称之为政变（这样的定性要求美国停止向埃及军方提供每年15亿美元的援助），穆斯林兄弟会的支持者却得出了美国支持军方的结论。


So what should the US and other governments that support liberal democracy do now?	那么，美国和其他支持自由民主的政府现在该做什么？


The answer could affect Egypt’s political future and that of countries throughout the region.	答案可能会影响埃及和所有地区国家的政治前途。


As many commentators have pointed out, from the Islamists’ standpoint, Morsi’s removal looks remarkably like the Algerian military’s overthrow in 1992 (with US support) of an elected Islamist government; the Turkish military’s “soft coup” in 1997, when it forced an elected Islamist government out of power; and the US government’s reversal of its support for “Arab democracy” after Hamas won elections in Gaza in 2006.	许多评论家指出，从伊斯兰教徒的角度来看，穆尔西的下台与1992年阿尔及利亚军队推翻民选伊斯兰政府； 1997年土耳其军方发动“软政变”逼迫民选伊斯兰政府交权；


If the choice for Islamists is still bullets or ballots, bullets may now look more promising.	2006年哈马斯赢得加沙选举后美国政府收回对“阿拉伯民主”的支持有着惊人的相似之��；


More generally, military interference with civilian politics, for any reason, weakens the processes, institutions, and checks on state power that make liberal democracy work.	如果伊斯兰教徒仍然需要在子弹和选票中做出选择，那么目前来看子弹的可能性更大。 一般来讲，针对平民政治的军事干预，无论出于何种原因，都会削弱民主程序和机构，并制约实现自由民主的国家权力。


Yet an estimated 17 million Egyptians marched to protest Morsi’s government, the majority of them citizens who had been mobilized through a petition process to demand a government responsive to their needs.	但是，估计有1700万埃及民众游行抗议穆尔西政府，其中多数人在请愿过程中受到动员，要求政府关注他们的需求。


Morsi and his Freedom and Justice Party (the Muslin Brotherhood’s political wing) gave no sign that they were prepared to accept real compromise, as opposed to tactical delays, in achieving their vision of an Islamic state.	没有任何迹象表明穆尔西和他的自由与正义党（穆斯林兄弟会的政治派别）为建设理想中的伊斯兰国家，愿意放弃拖延战术接受真正的妥协。


In his final speech, Morsi rallied his troops for the barricades and bloodshed rather than for the compromise that would have kept him in office.	在最后一次讲话中，穆尔西号召部队设置路障、制造流血事件，而不是接受本来能让他继续执政的妥协。


Genuine liberal democracy requires accepting that in a pluralist, divided country, it is possible to govern only through inclusion, not imposition.	真正的自由民主政体必须承认在多元而分裂国家，包容而非强制是唯一可行的执政方式。


Anything else suggests that political Islam is the Marxism of our time, preparing a long-term strategy ultimately aimed at replacing the system rather than reforming it.	其他任何方式显示政治伊斯兰是我们这个时代的马克思主义，其长期战略目标是推翻而非改革现有体制。


The liberal-democratic alternative is to participate in the push and pull over the role of religion in public life within limits set by a super-majoritarian constitution, as more religiously oriented parties do in the US, Europe, and Israel.	替代自由民主方案是像美国、欧洲和以色列宗教色彩浓厚的政党一样，在压倒多数宪法所允许的范围内，参与宗教对公共生活的牵引和推动。


Given these competing considerations, the US should start by calling the events that began on June 30 a coup, but not yet a military coup, on the grounds that a true military coup replaces the existing government with a military government.	考虑到上述矛盾因素，美国应该将6月30日事件称之为政变，但还不能叫军事政变，因为真正的军事政变往往用军政府取代现有政府。


That has not happened, and it may not happen if genuinely free and fair elections, with the participation of all parties, take place within six months.	这种情况还没有发生，而且如果在6个月内举行真正自由公正的选举，这种情况或许可以避免。


The US should therefore declare that it will cut off its aid to Egypt’s military at a specified date unless elections take place.	因此美国应当宣布除非举行选举，否则将在指定日期切断对埃及的军事援助。


But that decision involves US-Israeli relations as much as US-Egyptian relations, because US aid has been aimed at securing and preserving Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.	但这一决策同样涉及美以关系，因为保持和维护埃以和平条约一直是美国援助的目标。


In the last two weeks, Israel has increased cooperation with Egypt’s generals to pursue Islamist extremists in Sinai.	过去两周来，埃以两国增强了追捕西奈半岛伊斯兰极端分子的合作。


Equally important, the US and as many other countries as possible should make clear to Egypt’s military that the detention of Muslim Brotherhood leaders must stop unless the military tries them for publicly inciting violence.	同样重要的是，美国应尽可能联合其他国家向埃及军方表明扣押穆斯林兄弟会领导人的行为必须停止，除非军方就公开煽动暴力对他们进行审判。


While it is legitimate to demand that the Brotherhood become a regular legal organization, rather than a shadowy network fronted by the Freedom and Justice Party, criminalization of political activity has no place in a constitutional democracy.	尽管希望兄弟会成为正常法律组织，而不是以自由正义党为掩护的阴暗网络的要求完全合法，但将政治活动犯罪化却超出了宪政民主的容忍限度。


It is the classic first step toward dictatorship, as is censorship of Muslim Brotherhood media.	和穆斯林兄弟会的媒体审查制度一样，政治活动犯罪化是迈向独裁的经典一步。


Egyptian elections will not be free and fair if they follow a political purge, as in Iran or Russia.	如果像伊朗或俄罗斯那样伴随政治清洗，那么埃及的选举就不可能是自由和公正的。


But stopping the military’s campaign against Brotherhood leaders requires engaging Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.	但制止对兄弟会领导人的军事行动需要沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的支持。


These two countries authorized a combined $8 billion in aid to Egypt immediately after June 30, and they make no secret of their desire to eradicate the Brotherhood.	6月30日后这两个国家立即向埃及提供了合计80亿美元的援助，他们毫不掩饰清除兄弟会的企图。


But political stability that is bought in this way cannot last for more than a few months.	但以这种方式赢得的政治稳定只能维持短短几个月。


Over the longer term, an elected government will have to bring enough parts of Egyptian society together to be able to make tough choices about dismantling the military’s corrupt state within a state, cutting subsidies, and rebuilding the economy’s foundations.	长远来看，民选政府必须团结埃及国内尽可能多的力量，在解散腐败军政府、削减补贴及重建经济基础等领域做出艰难的选择。


Pushing the Muslim Brotherhood back underground is a recipe for further instability.	将穆斯林兄弟会推回地下只会带来更多的动荡。


Revolutions often seesaw between extremes before the forces strong enough to overthrow governments become strong enough and legitimate enough to govern.	在推翻政府的势力强大到足以合法执政之前革命往往在极端之间摇晃。


All friends of the Egyptian people must support the principles and processes of liberal democracy, regardless of the politicians and parties that we offend.	埃及人民的所有朋友都必须支持自由民主的原则和程序，不管会得罪哪些政客和政党。


The Al Jazeera Revolution Turns Ten	半岛电视台十周年


When it first appeared, the new satellite channel broadcast from Qatar reflected its own name.	当半岛电视台刚刚面世的时候，这一来自卡塔尔的全新卫星频道名副其实。


Al Jazeera – Arabic for “the island” – represented a haven of professional, independent, current affairs programming in a sea of one-sided, government-controlled Arab media.	阿拉伯语中的“半岛”代表的是在政府控制的单方面阿拉伯媒体海洋中专业以及独立的时事节目的避风港。


Until Al Jazeera’s mostly BBC-trained journalists arrived on the scene, the average Arab citizen’s news television diet was nothing more than protocol news, wire service video reflecting the latest in the Palestinian conflict, and dramatic photos of earthquakes or wild fires.	在半岛电视台大多数受过英国广播公司训练的记者涌现之前，普通阿拉伯人的新闻电视节目不过只是礼宾新闻，反映巴勒斯坦冲突最新消息、地震或者野火生动照片的有线电视录像。


Al Jazeera not only provided live interviews and broadcasts from the field; it introduced live debate to the Arab world.	半岛电视台不仅提供了现场采访以及直播，而且还向阿拉伯世界引进了现场辩论。


Its program Al Itijah al Mu’akess (“the opposite direction”) brought the sort of verbal jousts that most of the world takes for granted but Arabs had never seen televised.	它的名叫”反方向“的节目带来了世界大多数地方习以为常、而阿拉伯人从来没有在电视上见过的唇枪舌战。


The guests that Faisal Qassem brought to the Doha studios (or via satellite) included people from the same Arab country or region but representing completely opposing points of view.	卡萨姆带到多哈录像棚(或者通过卫星) 的人包括来自同一个阿拉伯国家或者地区、但是代表了截然相反观点的人士。


While hard-hitting professional news and programs like Al Itijah al Mu’akess provided viewers with unique television, it took major world conflicts to bring Al Jazeera acclaim.	尽管像”反方向“那样咄咄逼人的专业新闻和节目给观众提供了独特的电视节目，但是，还是巨大的世界冲突才给半岛电视台带来了声誉。


The Palestinian intifada, the terrorist attacks against New York and Washington in September 2001, and the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq propelled Al Jazeera to global influence.	巴勒斯坦起义、2001年9月发生在纽约和华盛顿的恐怖主义袭击以及入侵阿富汗和伊拉克让半岛电视台举世闻名。


In its first years, Al Jazeera was simultaneously hailed as a pioneering media outlet for reform in the Arab world and as an instigator of internal conflict and strife.	在它的创办年份里，半岛电视台同时还被誉为阿拉伯世界改革的锐意进取的媒体，也是内部冲突和斗争的鼓动者。


Almost every Arab ruler at one time or another attempted to silence the station by closing its local bureau and pressing the Qatari rulers to muzzle its freewheeling journalists. Neither worked.	几乎每个阿拉伯统治者都在某些时候试图通过关闭其当地分社并且迫使卡塔尔统治者钳制其直言无悔的记者来让这一电视台默不作声，但是都没有成功。


In fact, the pressures only added to the station’s popularity among Arab viewers.	实际上，这些压力只增加了电视台在阿拉伯观众中的受欢迎程度。


The United States initially seemed favorable to Al Jazeera.	美国一开始看起来赞成半岛电视台。


The station’s encouragement of democratic reform and coverage of different points of view were compatible with the proclamations of US foreign policy.	该台鼓励民主改革以及报导不同的观点，与美国宣扬的外交政策吻合。


But this changed dramatically after 9/11, when it became clear that Iraqi and Afghan civilian victims of US bombs (as well as prisoners of war) would receive more coverage than was being provided by the embedded western media machine (Al Jazeera’s one embedded journalist did not remain so very long).	但是，自从9/11以来，这一情况发生了巨变。 那时，对在伊拉克和阿富汗受到美国炸弹轰炸的平民受害者的报道超过了已经扎根的西方媒体机器(半岛电视台在那里扎根的记者并没有呆很长时间)。


When Al Jazeera reporters interviewed Osama bin Laden and the station broadcast his videos, America’s gloves came off.	当半岛电视台记者采访本拉登、而且播放了录像的时候，美国图穷匕见。


Senior US officials publicly vilified the station.	美国的高级官员公开贬低该台。


But the more the US and authoritarian Arab regimes attacked the station, the more the station became a reflector of some of the radical Islamic trends.	但是美国以及阿拉伯独裁政权越发攻击，该台就越发成为某些极端伊斯兰趋向的反映者。


In the Danish cartoon case and the recent controversy over the Pope’s statements, the station was clearly seen as making the news rather than just covering it.	在丹麦卡通画以及最近的教皇言论风波之中，半岛电视台明显地是在制造新闻，而不是报道新闻。


Despite its popularity, however, Al Jazeera has not succeeded financially.	但是尽管广受欢迎，半岛电视台在财政上并未成功。


The enmity of the Saudis to the station and its Qatari owners resulted in boycotts.	沙特对该台及其卡塔尔拥有者的敌意造成了抵制。


Multi-national advertisers who covet the huge Saudi market were informed in no uncertain terms that they would lose hefty contracts if they advertised on Al Jazeera.	窥视巨大沙特市场的跨国广告商被明白无误地警告，如果它们在半岛电视台做广告，它们就会失去巨额的合同。


Nevertheless, the station, whose owners have deep pockets, expanded to add a direct satellite broadcast, a children’s station, two sports stations, and soon an international, English-language station.	但是，半岛电视台的老板资金雄厚，扩大到直接的卫星广播，儿童电视台，两个体育电视台，马上还有一个国际的英语电视台。


Although no one has yet caught up to Al Jazeera’s news and current affairs popularity, the Saudi-owned Middle East Broadcasting Center has introduced a successful 24-hour station, Al Arrabiyeh, which is challenging Al Jazeera’s lead.	尽管还没有人能够比得上半岛电视台的新闻和时事节目的欢迎程度，但是沙特拥有的中东广播中心已经成功引进了全天24小时电视台，挑战半岛电视台的领先地位。


The Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation and Egypt’s Dream have also won large segments of the general Arab public with entertainment programs.	黎巴嫩广播公司以及埃及的梦想也用娱乐节目赢得了大量普通阿拉伯公众。


Al Jazeera has made Qatar famous and the Arab world better informed.	半岛电视台让卡塔尔声名远扬，也让阿拉伯世界更为了解时事。


Despite its inadequacies and biases, Al Jazeera has changed the Arab world for the better.	尽管存有不足和偏见，半岛电视台已经改善了阿拉伯世界。


While no state-run TV station had live current affairs programs ten years ago, now even stations from some of the most dictatorial regimes are forced to raise their level and allow live interviews.	十年以前，没有任何一家国营电视台有直播的时事节目，现在，即使是最为独裁的政权的电视台也被迫提高水准，允许实况采访。


As it celebrates its tenth anniversary, Al Jazeera is no longer new, but it remains a trendsetter.	在庆祝十周年之际，半岛电视台不再是新鲜事物了。 但是，它还是在引导趋势。


It has broken new ground in politics and culture, but its impact on social and economic life has been minimal.	它已经在政治和文化上开辟了新天地，但是它对社会和经济生活的影响微不足道。


So, as Al Jazeera moves into media adolescence, it must begin to think about how it can become a social pioneer in the Arab and Islamic world.	所以，当半岛电视台进入少年之际，它必须开始考虑如何可以在阿拉伯��伊斯兰世界成为一个社会先锋。


God knows, change is still needed on that front.	上帝知道，在这一方面，还是需要改变。


The Allure of Asia	亚洲的诱惑


President Bush is in Asia to attend the Asian Pacific Economic Council in China, but he should pay attention to another Asian summit to which he was not invited.	布什总统正在亚洲参加在中国举行的亚太经合组织会议。 但是，他还应当关注另一场他没有获邀参加的亚洲峰会。


In December, Malaysia will host an East Asian meeting that deliberately excludes the United States.	十二月份，马来西亚将主办一场有意排斥美国的亚洲峰会。


According to many close observers, America’s attractiveness is declining in the region where the allure, or “soft power,” of others has increased.	据许多资深观察家说，美国在该地区的吸引力正在下降，而其他国家的诱惑，或者说是“柔性力量”则已经提高。


Asian countries have impressive potential resources for soft power.	亚洲国家具备柔性力量所需要的巨大的潜在资源。


The arts, fashion, and cuisine of Asia’s ancient cultures have had a strong impact on other parts of the world for centuries, but Asia went through a period of relative decline as it lagged behind the industrial revolution in the West, and this undermined its influence.	在过去数百年中，亚洲古老文化的艺术、时装和美食对于世界其他地方产生强烈的影响。 但是，当亚洲落后于西方的工业革命时，经历了一段时间的相对衰落。


In the 1950’s, Asia conjured up images of poverty and starvation.	二十世纪五十年代，亚洲呈现的是贫穷和饥荒的形象。


There was a brief political infatuation among some Westerners in the 1960’s with Nehru jackets and Maoist revolution, but it was brief.	六十年代，西方有人一度对尼赫鲁夹克衫和毛式革命充满政治迷恋，但很短暂。


As John Lennon sang in 1968, “if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain’t gonna make it with anyone anyhow.”	正如约翰·列农在1968年所唱的那样：“如果你高举毛主席画像，你在哪里也不会成功”。


Asia’s resurgence began with Japan’s economic success.	亚洲的重新崛起开始于日本的经济成功。


By the end of the century, Japan’s remarkable performance not only made the Japanese wealthy, but also enhanced the country’s soft power.	截至到二十世纪末，日本非凡的经济成就不仅使得日本人民富有，而且也提高了该国的柔性力量。


As the first non-Western country that drew even with the West in modernity while showing that it is possible to maintain a unique culture, Japan has more potential soft-power resources than any other Asian country.	日本是第一个在现代化程度上与西方并驾齐驱的非西方国家，同时它也表明，维持独特的文化是可能的。 因此，日本比亚洲其他任何国家具有更多潜在的柔性力量资源。


Today Japan ranks first in the world in the number of patents, third in expenditure on research and development as a share of GDP, second in book sales and music sales, and highest for life expectancy.	如今，日本的专利数量名列世界第一，国民生产总值中用于研发的比重名列第三，书籍和音乐销售名列第二，平均寿命名列第一。


It is home to three of the top twenty-five multinational brand names (Toyota, Honda, and Sony).	在全球最知名的25个品牌中，日本占据三个（丰田，本田以及索尼）。


The decade-long economic slowdown of the 1990’s tarnished Japan’s reputation, but it did not erase Japan’s soft-power resources.	二十世纪九十年代为期十年的经济衰退使得日本的声誉黯然失色。 但是，这并未消除日本的柔性力量资源。


Japan’s global cultural influence grew in areas ranging from fashion, food, and pop music to consumer electronics, architecture, and art.	日本的全球性文化影响力在时装、美食、流行音乐、电子消费品、建筑以及艺术等领域中得以增长。


Japanese manufacturers rule the roost in home video games.	日本制造商在家用电子游戏中称雄世界。


Pokemon cartoons are broadcast in 65 countries, and Japanese animation is a huge hit with filmmakers and teenagers everywhere.	卡通片在65个国家中播放，而日本的动画在全世界广受制片人和青少年的欢迎。


In short, Japan’s popular culture was still producing potential soft-power resources even after its economy slowed down.	总之，即使在经济衰退后，日本的流行文化依然在制造潜在的柔性力量资源。


Now, with signs of a reviving economy, Japan’s soft power may increase even more.	如今，经济出现复苏的迹象，日本的柔性力量可能会更上一层楼。


But there are limits.	但是，日本仍然存在局限。


Unlike Germany, which repudiated its past aggression and reconciled with its neighbors in the framework of the European Union, Japan has never come to terms with its record in the 1930’s and 1940’s.	德国否定了其过去的侵略行径，并且在欧盟的框架内同邻国修好。 与德国不同的是，日本从未反省上世纪三十年代和四十年代的所作所为。


The residual suspicion that lingers in countries like China and Korea sets limits on Japan’s appeal that are reinforced every time the Japanese prime minister visits the Yasukuni Shrine.	中国和韩国对于日本的疑虑尤存，日本首相每次参拜靖国神社都限制了日本的吸引力。


Japan also faces serious demographic challenges.	日本还面临严重的人口挑战。


By mid-century, Japan’s population could shrink by 30% unless it attracts 17 million immigrants – a hard task in a country historically resistant to immigration.	到本世纪中叶，除非日本吸纳1,700万移民，否则，其人口有可能缩小30％。 这对于一个历史上抵制移民的国家而言是一个艰巨的任务。


Moreover, the Japanese language is not widely spoken, and Japan’s meager English-language skills make it difficult to attract international talent to its universities.	而且，日语的使用并不广泛，而日本蹩脚的英语水平很难将国际人才吸引到它的大学里来。


Japan’s culture remains inward-looking.	日本文化依旧保持内敛。


Looking ahead, China and India are the looming giants of Asia, with their huge populations and rapid economic growth rates.	登高望远就可以发现中国和印度由于其庞大的人口和高速的经济增长率而将成为亚洲的巨人。


Not only are their military, or “hard power,” resources growing; there are signs that their soft-power resources are increasing, too.	不仅其军力，或曰“刚性力量”资源在提高，而且有迹象表明其柔性力量也在提高。


In 2000, Chinese novelist Gao Xingjian won China’s first Nobel prize for literature, followed a year later by the Indian diaspora writer V.S. Naipaul.	2000年，中国小说家高行健赢得了中国的第一个诺贝尔文学奖。 印度移居海外的作家维·苏·内保尔则在一年后获奖。


The Chinese film “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” became the highest grossing non-English film, and Indian movies like “Monsoon Wedding” were global box-office successes.	中国电影<<卧虎藏龙>>成为非英语电影中最高收入影片，而像<<季风婚礼>>那样的印度电影则成为全球票房收入的成功典型。


Indeed, “Bollywood” produces more movies every year than Hollywood.	实际上，印度“宝莱坞”摄制的电影数量每年都高于好莱坞。


The list goes on.	这样的例子不胜枚举。


Yao Ming, the Chinese star of the National Basketball Association’s Houston Rockets, could become another Michael Jordan, and China is set to host the 2008 Summer Olympics.	美国NBA休斯顿火箭队的中国明星姚明有可能成为另一个麦克尔·乔丹，而中国将举办2008的夏季奥运会。


Large expatriate communities in the US – 2.4 million Chinese and 1.7 million Indians – have increased interest in their home countries among other Americans.	中国和印度在美国都有庞大的海外社区，中国为240万，印度为170万。 和其他美国人一样，他们对于各自的祖国越发关注。


Moreover, transnational connections in the information industry are close, as Western high-tech companies increasingly employ affiliates in Bangalore and Shanghai to provide real-time services.	而且，信息产业的跨国联系十分紧密，西方国家高科技公司越来越多地雇用在班加罗尔和上海的附属单位来提供即时服务。


But the real promise for China and India lies in the future.	但是，中国和印度真正的前途在于未来。


A country’s soft power rests upon the attractiveness of its culture, the appeal of its domestic political and social values, and the style and substance of its foreign policies.	国家柔性的力量取决于其文化和国内政治、社会价值观念的吸引力以及其外交政策的实质。


In recent years, both China and India have adopted foreign policies that have increased their attractiveness to others.	近年来，中国和印度都采取了提高其对他国吸引力的外交政策。


But neither country yet ranks high on the various indices of potential soft-power resources that are possessed by the US, Europe, and Japan.	但是，在美国、欧洲和日本所拥有的潜在的柔性力量资源不同指��上，两国都并不突出。


While culture provides some soft power, domestic policies and values set limits, particularly in China, where the Communist Party fears allowing too much intellectual freedom and resists outside influences.	尽管文化提供某些柔性力量，但是受到国内政策和价值观念的局限。 特别是在中国，共产党害怕允许过多的知识自由并抵制外界影响。


Both countries have a reputation for corruption in government.	两国都有政府腐败的名声。


India benefits from democratic politics, but suffers from overly bureaucratized government.	印度得益于国内政治，但是深受官僚主义之害。


In foreign policy as well, both countries’ reputations are burdened with the problems of longstanding disputes over Taiwan and Kashmir.	在外交政策上也是一样，两国的声誉都背负着久拖不决的台湾问题和克什米尔问题。


Moreover, in the US, the attraction of an authoritarian China is limited by the concern that it could become a future threat.	而且，在美国，专制主义的中国的吸引力受限于其有可能成为未来的威胁的担忧。


The soft power of Asian countries, then, lags behind that of the US, Europe, and Japan, but it is likely to increase.	因此，亚洲国家的柔性力量落后于美国、欧洲和日本，但是有可能提高。


Indeed, if the US continues to pursue unattractive policies, it may find that its absence from the summit in Malaysia in December is a harbinger of things to come.	实际上，如果美国继续执行其不受欢迎的政策，它就会发现，缺席马来西亚的峰会就是其他事件的先兆。


The American Anti-Intellectual Threat	美国的反智主义威胁


NEW YORK – In recent years, the United States has been more a source of global instability than a source of global problem-solving.	纽约 – 今年来，与其说美国是一个为全球难题提供解决方案的大本营，还不如说是造成全球不稳定的一个源头。


Examples include the war in Iraq, launched by the US on false premises, obstructionism on efforts to curb climate change, meager development assistance, and the violation of international treaties such as the Geneva Conventions.	例子就包括：美国以错误的假设发动伊拉克战争， 对抑制天气变化的努力采取的阻碍的政策，减少援助其它国家发展的金额，对诸如日内瓦公约的国际条约的侵犯。


While many factors contributed to America’s destabilizing actions, a powerful one is anti-intellectualism, exemplified recently by Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin’s surging popularity.	当然，美国的这些引起不安的行为是有许多因素引起的，但是，其中一个重要的因素是反知识主义，最近共和党副总统候选人萨拉. 佩林快速走红就是一个例证。


By anti-intellectualism, I mean especially an aggressively anti-scientific perspective, backed by disdain for those who adhere to science and evidence.	所谓的反智主义，我尤其指的是一种气势汹涌的反科学观念，其蔑视坚持科学和事实证据的人们。


The challenges faced by a major power like the US require rigorous analysis of information according to the best scientific principles.	而解决象美国这样的大国所遇到的挑战，应该对信息按最科学的原则进行严格的分析。


Climate change, for example, poses dire threats to the planet that must be assessed according to prevailing scientific norms and the evolving capacity of climate science.	例如，气候变化对地球造成了严重的威胁，这种威胁必须以普遍接受的科学标准和不断发展的天气科学的能力来进行评估。


The Nobel Prize-winning global scientific process called the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set the gold standard for scientific rigor in analyzing the threats of human-induced climate change.	获得诺贝尔奖的全球科学程序，也称之为跨政府天气变化专门委员会(IPCC)，已经为分析人为带来的天气变化的威胁制定了黄金的科学严格标准。


We need scientifically literate politicians adept at evidence-based critical thinking to translate these findings and recommendations into policy and international agreements.	我们需要懂科学知识的并擅长以事实为基础进行批判性思维能力的政治家们用这些科学的发现和建议制定政策和达成国际协议。


In the US, however, the attitudes of President Bush, leading Republicans, and now Sarah Palin, have been the opposite of scientific.	但是，在美国，布什总统、共和党的领袖人物们，加上现在的萨拉. 佩林，他们的态度走到了科学的对立面。


The White House did all it could for eight years to hide the overwhelming scientific consensus that humans are contributing to climate change.	白宫八年来尽其所能把人类造成了气候变化这一毫无疑问的科学共识掩盖起来。


It tried to prevent government scientists from speaking honestly to the public. The Wall Street Journal has similarly peddled anti-science and pseudo-science to oppose policies to fight human-induced climate change.	美国政府试图阻止为政府工作的科学家们向公众说出真话。 华尔街日报也同样地兜售反科学和伪科学，反对向人为带来的气候变化宣战。


These anti-scientific approaches affected not only climate policy, but also foreign policy.	这些反科学的处理问题方法，不但影响了气候政策，也影响了外交政策。


The US went to war in Iraq on the basis of Bush’s gut instincts and religious convictions, not rigorous evidence.	美国向伊拉克宣战，是基于布什的主观直觉和宗教信仰，而不是严密的事实证据之上的。


Likewise, Palin has called the Iraq War “a task from God.”	同样地，佩林把伊拉克战争称之为“上帝赋予的任务”。


These are not isolated albeit powerful individuals out of touch with reality.	尽管有那些脱离现实的权重势大的人，但这些例子不是孤立的。


They reflect the fact that a significant portion of American society, which currently votes mainly Republican, rejects or is simply unaware of basic scientific evidence regarding climate change, biological evolution, human health, and other fields.	它们反映了一个事实，那就是美国社会相当多的人士反对或者根本就不知气候变化、生物进化、人类健康和其它领域的基本的科学事实，这部分人主要是共和党的支持者。


These voters generally do not reject the benefits of technologies that result from modern science, but they do reject the evidence and advice of scientists regarding public policies.	这些选民一般不会拒绝现代科学技术所带来的益处，但他们拒绝接受事实和科学家们对公共政策提出的建议。


Recent survey data by the Pew Foundation found that while 58% of Democrats believe that human beings are causing global warming, only 28% of Republicans do.	近来由PEW基金会进行的调查的数据发现，58%的民主党人相信人类正在造成全球变暖，而只有28%的共和党人这么认为。


Similarly, a 2005 survey found that 59% of self-professed conservative Republicans rejected any theory of evolution, while 67% of liberal Democrats accepted some version of evolutionary theory.	同样地，在2005年进行的一项调查中，59% 的自认为保守派共和党人士拒绝接受任何进化理论，而67%的自由派民主党人则多少会接受某种进化论观点。


To be sure, some of these deniers are simply scientifically ignorant, having been failed by the poor quality of science education in America.	肯定的是，有一部分否认者是真的不懂科学，他们是糟糕的美国科学教育的受害者。


But others are biblical fundamentalists, who reject modern science because they take the word of the Bible as literally true.	但是，其他的人却是圣经原教旨主义者，他们拒绝接受现代科学，是因为他们把圣经中的话当作十足的真理。


They reject geological evidence of climate change because they reject the science of geology itself.	他们拒绝接受气候变化的地质��上的证据，因为他们拒绝地质科学本身。


The issue here is not religion versus science.	这里的问题不在于宗教和科学之间的对立。


All of the great religions have traditions of fruitful interchange with – and, indeed, support for – scientific inquiry.	所有伟大的宗教都有和科学探索进行富有成果的交流的传统，事实上它们也支持科学探索。


The Golden Age of Islam a millennium ago was also the age in which Islamic science led the world.	一千年前的伊斯兰教的黄金时代也是伊斯兰科学统领世界的年代。


Pope John Paul II declared his support for the basic science of evolution, and Roman Catholic bishops are strongly in favor of limiting human-induced climate change, based on the scientific evidence.	教皇约翰保罗二世公开宣称他对进化论基础科学的支持，罗马天主教主教非常支持在基于科学依据之上限制人类活动引起气候变化。


Several leading scientists, including one of the world’s greatest biologists, E.O. Wilson, have reached out to religious communities to support the fight against human-induced climate change and the fight for biological conservation, and those religious communities have reached back in harmony with science.	Wilson，积极接触宗教社区，并支持向由人类引起的气候变化开战和开展生物保护。 而那些宗教社区也以科学相吻的态度进行了回应。


The problem is an aggressive fundamentalism that denies modern science, and an aggressive anti-intellectualism that views experts and scientists as the enemy.	问题是活跃的原教旨主义对现代科学的抵触，以及同样活跃的反智主义视专家和科学家为敌人。


It is those views that could end up getting us all killed.	就是那些观点，有可能把我们全都推向毁灭。


After all, that kind of extremism can even lead to war, based on perverted views that a particular war is God’s will rather than a failure of politics and cooperation.	总之，这种极端主义能引起战争，其变态的观点是展开这样的战争的基础，他们的观点是，某些战争是上帝的旨意而非政治上和合作上的失败而引起。


In many statements, Palin seems intent on invoking God in her judgments about war, an ominous sign for the future if she is elected.	在许多声明中，佩林似乎有意要祈求上帝来帮她对战争作判断。 如果她当选，这是将来的一个不详的信号。


She would certainly stoke many enemies who will look to their own brands of fundamentalism to strike back at the US.	她肯定会激怒很多敌人，这些人会以他们各自对原教旨主义的理解来反击美国极端主义者。


Extremists on both sides end up putting at risk the vast majority of humans who are neither extremists nor anti-science fundamentalists.	双方都会把既不属于极端主义者也不属于反科学的原教旨主义者的大众推向危险的境地。


It is difficult to know for sure what is giving rise to fundamentalism in so many parts of the world.	很难说清楚是什么促使了原教旨主义在世界上那么多地区的兴起。


What is happening in the US, for example, is not happening in Europe, but it is of course characteristic of some parts of the Middle East and Central Asia.	比如，在美国发生的事情在欧洲就没有发生，但原教旨主义肯定是中东和中亚一些地区的特征。


Fundamentalism seems to emerge in times of far-reaching change, when traditional social arrangements come under threat.  The surge of modern American fundamentalism in politics dates to the civil rights era of the 1960’s, and at least partly reflects a backlash among whites against the growing political and economic strength of non-white and immigrant minority groups in US society.	原教旨主义似乎出现在发生深远变革的年代，也就是说当传统社会秩序受到挑战的年代。 现代美国政治领域内的原教旨主义的兴起可以追溯到1960年代的民权时代，这也至少部分反映出白人群体对美国社会非白人和移民少数群体不断强大的政治和经济实力的对抗情绪。


Humanity’s only hope is that the vicious circle of extremism can be replaced by a shared global understanding of the massive challenges of climate change, food supplies, sustainable energy, water scarcity, and poverty.	人类唯一的希望是，对于气候变化、食品供应、可持续性能源、水资源缺乏和贫困这些巨大的挑战，人类能达成世界范围内的共识，而这些共识可以取代极端主义的恶性循环。


Global scientific processes like the IPCC are critical, because they offer our best hope of forging a consensus based on the scientific evidence.	如IPCC这样的全球科学程序是至关重要的，因为它们在最大程度上给了我们期望，那就是在科学证据的基础上铸造共识。


The US must return to the global consensus based on shared science rather than anti-intellectualism.	美国必须重返基于共享的科学态度而非反智主义之上的全球共识。


That is the urgent challenge at the heart of American society today.	那是当今美国社会面临的迫在眉睫的挑战。


The American Recovery	美国的复苏


NEWPORT BEACH – The United States has gone through an arduous period of intervention and rehabilitation since the global financial crisis in 2008 sent it to the economic equivalent of the emergency room.	纽波特海滩—2008年的金融危机将美国经济送入了急诊室，此后，美国进入了艰苦的治疗和康复过程。


It moved from the intensive-care unit to the recovery room and, just recently, was discharged from the hospital.	最近，在先后经历了重症监护室和术后恢复室之后，美国经济终于可以出院了。


The question now is whether the US economy is ready not just to walk, but also to run and sprint.	现在的问题不仅在于美国经济能不能走路，还在于能不能跑步和冲刺。


The answer will powerfully influence global economic prospects.	这个问题的答案将严重影响全球经济前景。


It is easy to forget how critical things were back in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.	你很容易就会忘记2008年四季度和2009年一季度的关键事件。