Already, variations in the composition of about 500,000 DNA building blocks (SNPs or Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms), spread over the total length of the DNA and shown to correlate with particular physical and behavioral characteristics or susceptibility to diseases, are being analyzed routinely.	约500 000个DNA功能模块的变种（单核苷酸多态性，SNP，它们遍布DNA的整个长度，并被证明与某些生理和行为特征或疾病敏感性相关）正在接受常规分析。


Major errors in DNA composition that are responsible for about 3,000 of the 7,000 known genetic diseases can be visualized, and efforts are underway to identify the causes of the remaining 4,000.	与7000种已知遗传病中的近3000种有关的DNA组成重大缺陷已经找到，其余4000种疾病的病因也在努力识别中。


Meanwhile, a growing number of companies are offering a new commercial service: direct-to-consumer analysis of DNA for genealogical or medical purposes.	与此同时，越来越多的公司在提供一项新的商业服务：面向消费者的出于血统和医疗目的的DNA分析。


While their activities and clientele are steadily increasing, many of the results currently are of only limited value for determining physical and behavioral characteristics or risks of common diseases such as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and depression.	尽管它们的活动和客户在稳步增长，但许多结果目前对于确定生理和行为特征或患高血压、心血管疾病、糖尿病和抑郁症等疾病风险价值有限。


Some people, however, claim the right to know all information pertaining to them, including even the slightest elevated risk for these diseases.	但是，一些人声称有权知道属于他们的所有信息，包括关于这些疾病的哪怕一丁点风险上升。


Some are even willing to undergo preventive measures or modify their behavior to decrease or control this risk.	一些人甚至愿意接受预防性措施或改变自身行为以降低或控制这一风险。


Others must cope with results showing that they carry defects that significantly increase their risk of developing a hereditary form of cancer or dementia, or of transmitting a defect to their children that could, in turn, cause a serious defect in their grandchildren.	其他人必须面对他们身带缺陷的结果，这些缺陷极大地提高了他们罹患遗传性癌症或痴呆或者缺陷传给子辈再给孙辈造成严重缺陷的风险。


Some people – so far still a minority – are fascinated by this new knowledge, and take the results for granted.	一些人——到目前为止仍是极少数——因这一新知识而着迷，全盘接受。


But more research is needed before we can understand the results of sequencing correctly and apply this knowledge appropriately in risk calculations.	但在我们能够正确理解测序结果并将这一知识合理地应用于风险计算之前还需要进一步研究。


For example, more than 97% of our DNA contains no information for the synthesis of proteins – that is, it contains no genes – but nonetheless interacts with our genes to increase, decrease, or inhibit the production of proteins.	比如，在我们的DNA中，97%以上不包含蛋白质合成信息——也就是说，不含基因——但可以与我们的基因产生互动以增加、减少或抑制蛋白质的产生。


We also know that even if our DNA is somewhat responsible for increased risks for common diseases, and in some cases is fully responsible for inherited diseases, the environment in which this DNA functions can be as important as the composition of the DNA itself.	我们还知道，即使我们的DNA在某种程度上要为常见疾病风险的增加负责，有时更是遗传病的唯一元凶，但DNA的功能环境与DNA本身的组成一样重要。


Indeed, from fertilization on, the environment in which the fertilized egg develops – for example, what the mother eats, whether she smokes or drinks alcohol, and whether she develops diseases or infections – places so-called epigenetic marks on the DNA or on the proteins surrounding it, affecting its function.	事实上，从受精开始，受精卵的发育环境——比如母亲吃什么、是否吸烟和饮酒、是否有疾病或受传染——都会给DNA或其周围但被指打上外生基因标记，影响其功能。


This conditioning effect continues and increases after birth, leading to different degrees of epigenetic marking in different organs.	这一条件性印象会在出生后继续存在和增加，导致不同器官不同程度的外生特征。


Individual differences in susceptibility to diseases can be the consequence.	疾病敏感性的个体差异也可能是后果之一。


This is nicely illustrated in identical twins, who show as they age increasing differences in the way that their identical DNA is marked by the environment.	这可以在同卵双胞胎身上得到很好的说明，随着年纪的增长，他们各自DNA由环境造成的印记差异也会越来越大。


Nonetheless, the dangers implied by recent technological progress have become increasingly obvious.	尽管如此，最新技术进步所隐含的风险已变得日益���显。


For example, it is now possible to analyze the DNA of an unborn child from the blood of its mother and determine its risk for diseases later in life.	比如，现在已能通过母亲的血液分析未出生婴儿的DNA，确定日后患病的风险。


This opens the way to full-blown eugenics – the selection (by parents, authorities, or others) of children with characteristics considered “appropriate.”	这开启了充分优生（full-blown eugenics）的大门——（由父母、当局或其他人）选择有“合适”特征的孩子出生。


We must take care that we do not become more fascinated by the composition of DNA and what characteristics and risks it carries than we are by the human qualities of less-than-perfect individuals, which we all are.	我们必须当心不要过度着迷于DNA的组成以及这所带来的特征和风险，而忽略了我们所有人都属于其范围之内的不完美个体的人种质量。


This does not mean that there are no applications of our knowledge that are not important, life-saving, and even necessary.	这并不意味着我们的知识的应用必然是重要、可救命甚至是必不可少的。


But they are more limited in number and scope than many seem to believe.	但它们的数量和范围要比很多人所认为的更加有限。


Now is a time not only to advance current research, but also to reflect and to tread cautiously.	我们不但要推进当前的研究，还要仔细反思，小心行事。


Israel’s Missing Peace Offensive	以色列错失的和平攻势


TEL AVIV – Even before the latest cease-fire took hold, it had become clear that the dilemma facing Israel in Gaza entails more than simply developing military answers to the challenge posed by Hamas.	特拉维夫—即使在最近的停火达成之前，以色列在加沙的两难困境便昭然若揭了——这绝不是简单地把哈马斯挑战诉诸武力解决的问题。


The real question is whether Israel’s leadership is capable of using new, non-military tools to address the anti-Israeli rage that has gained momentum across the region in the wake of the Arab Spring.	真正的问题是以色列领导人是否有能力使用新的非军事工具平息自阿拉伯之春以来席卷整个地区的反以色列怒潮。


And now, in the wake of Palestine’s resoundingly successful bid for observer-state status at the United Nations, Israel’s conundrum has become particularly acute.	而如今，巴勒斯坦获得联合国观察员国资格的尝试获得了空前的成功，以色列的难题也随之变得极为棘手。


Israel conducted the recent showdown with Hamas in a regional context that has changed dramatically since its last incursion into Gaza, “Operation Cast Lead” in 2008.	自以色列最近的入侵加沙之举——2008年的“铸铅行动”以来，地区环境已经发生了剧烈的改变，以色列就是在这样的环境中与哈马斯摊牌的。


The rise of Islamist regimes throughout the Arab world, and the subsequent shift of regional alliances, has increased the Jewish state’s isolation.	伊斯兰政权在阿拉伯世界的全面开花，以及随之而来的地区结盟运动加剧了以色列的国家孤立。


Major regional powers like Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar now support an emboldened Hamas, whose paramount objectives are now to consolidate its increased international legitimacy and sideline the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA).	主要地区势力——如埃及、土耳其和卡塔尔等——现在都支持信心高涨的哈马斯，如今，后者的最高目标是巩固其改善的国际合法性、逼宫约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构。


Indeed, Israel is now in a strategic trap, owing not only to the Arab Spring, but also to its own diplomatic blunders, particularly the disintegration of its alliance with Turkey.	事实上，以色列现在已陷入战略陷阱，不仅是因为阿拉伯之春，也是因为其自身的外交错误，特别是与其土耳其盟友关系的瓦解。


No display of military muscle could help; only robust peace diplomacy could end Israel’s isolation.	炫耀军力毫无用处，唯有稳步推进和平外交可能结束以色列的孤立。


Unfortunately, Israeli leaders are unable to summon the statesmanship required to manage the strategic readjustment occurring in the region.	不幸的是，以色列领导人无法拿出处理中东地区所发生的战略再调整的政治才能。


Instead, Defense Minister Ehud Barak explained the thinking behind the recent hostilities in Gaza in typically existential terms.	国防部长巴拉克以典型的存在主义口吻解释了加沙地区当前敌对局面背后的思想。


He fell back on a defining speech in Israeli history, General Moshe Dayan’s eulogy for Roi Rothberg, a young soldier riddled by bullets from the Gaza Strip in 1956.	他引用了以色列历史上的著名演讲——摩西·达杨（Moshe Dayan）将军对罗伊·洛特伯格（Roi Rothberg）的悼词。 洛特伯格是一位士兵，1956年，他在加沙地带被子弹打成了筛子。


Rothberg was killed because “the yearning for peace deafened his ears, and he did not hear the voice of murder waiting in ambush.”	洛特伯格的被杀是因为“对和平的渴望让他变成了聋子，听不到埋伏中的杀戮之声。


Dayan-Barak warned that “beyond the furrow of the (Gaza) border, a sea of hatred and desire for revenge is swelling, awaiting the day when serenity will dull our path.”	”达杨-巴拉克警告“在（加沙）边境的壕沟之外，是无际的憎恨和复仇欲望之海，等待着平静在我们的道路上消退的那一天。 ”


An anxious nation is counseled to be resilient: “Let us not be deterred from seeing the loathing that is inflaming and filling the lives of the hundreds of thousands of Arabs who live around us….This is the fate of our generation…to be prepared and armed, strong and determined, lest the sword be stricken from our fist and our lives cut down.”	一个焦虑的国家被号召应该具有韧劲：“我们不能因为看到生活在我们周围的数十百万阿拉伯人怒火中烧的憎恨而退缩……这是我们这一代人的命运……——准备着、武装起来、强壮而坚定，唯恐手中利剑从我们手中脱落，而我们被敌人砍死。 ”


Like Dayan before him, Barak believes that Israel, a “villa in the jungle,” is forced to go to war every few years to consolidate its deterrence in an unmerciful Middle East neighborhood, where “there is no pity for the weak, nor a second chance for the defeated.”	与前任达杨一样，巴拉克认为，以色列是“丛林中的庄园”，被迫每隔几年就打一场战争巩固其在残酷的中东四邻间的威慑力，这里“不同情弱者，被打败者不会获得第二次机会。 ”


But Barak skipped a cruelly candid paragraph in Dayan’s speech that evoked the imposing magnitude of the Palestinian plight: “Let us not cast the blame on the murderers today….For eight years, they have been sitting in the refugee camps in Gaza, and before their eyes we have been transforming the lands and the villages where they and their fathers dwelt into our estate.	但巴拉克跳过了达杨悼词中的一个残酷而坦率的段落，正是这一段落导致了巴勒斯坦沦入如此困境：“我们不应该把矛头指向今天的谋杀犯……八年来，他们一直藏在加沙难民营之后，在他们眼皮底下，我们一直在转移他们和他们的父辈居住的土地和村庄——居住在我们的房子里。


It is not among the Arabs in Gaza, but in our midst, that we must seek Roi’s blood.”	罗伊血债的源头不在加沙的阿拉伯人，在我们自己的脑海里。 ”


The Middle East, of course, is not a congenial neighborhood.	当然，中东绝不是意气相投的社区。


But audacity in the quest for peace, as demonstrated by Yitzhak Rabin and Barak himself in the past – and as Dayan demonstrated as a negotiator with Egypt– is no sign of weakness.	但大胆要求和平——如拉宾和巴拉克本人曾经显露过的，以及达杨在作为与埃及谈判者时所表现的——并不是示弱。


Like the United States, which has come to terms with the changes in the Middle East by dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood, and even with Salafists, Israel would be well advised to test Hamas on the diplomatic front.	与美国一样——它向中东的变化局势低了头，与穆斯林兄弟会甚至沙拉菲派打交道——以色列的上计是试探哈马斯的外交方针。


Hamas’s military collapse would not pave the way for the moderate Fatah to return to power in Gaza; it would enthrone Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda.	哈马斯的军事崩溃不会为温和的法塔赫重新掌握加沙大权铺平道路； 只会让伊斯兰圣战者和基地组织登基。


Hamas’s promise to the Palestinians, however, is a delusion.	不过，哈马斯对巴勒斯坦人的承诺是一种幻觉。


Religious fervor and a state of permanent conflict with Israel might be a badge of identity, but they will not pave the way to victory.	宗教狂热和与以色列打持久战的准备可以称为身份的印记，但无法成为胜利的保障。


Hamas is ready to expose Gaza’s civilians to Israel’s devastating retaliations as long as this serves to mobilize the region against the Zionist aggressors and to mock PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s illusions of a diplomatic solution.	哈马斯已准备让加沙平民暴露于以色列的毁灭性反击之下，只要这有利于动员该地区起来反抗犹太复国主义者、嘲弄巴勒斯坦权力机构主席阿巴斯的外交解决方案幻想。


Hamas understands that accommodation with the Jewish state – and attending to the tedious business of providing decent governance in Gaza, rather than accumulating a formidable arsenal with help from Iran and Sudan (for which “Palestine” is just a pretext) – would mean the end of the organization as we know it.	哈马斯明白，与犹太国家和解——并参与在加沙提供良好治理这样的繁琐事务，而不是在伊朗和苏丹（对它们来说，“巴勒斯坦”只是一个借口）的帮助下囤积可怕的武库——意味着我们所熟知的“哈马斯”组织的末日。


Yet, unlike Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda, Hamas is susceptible to change; and this is precisely what Israeli diplomacy should strive to achieve.	但是，与伊斯兰圣战者和基地组织不同，哈马斯是容忍改变的； 而这正是以色列外交手段应该紧紧抓住的。


This requires, first and foremost, superseding the cognitive dissonance whereby Israel dreams of engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt but refuses that path with the Brothers’ Gazan offspring, Hamas.	最重要的是，这要求取代以色列希望与埃及的穆斯林兄弟会合作而拒绝兄弟会在加沙的子组织哈马斯的路线之间的认知分歧。


Instead, Israel should acknowledge Hamas’s right to govern, which means opening the borders (including the Rafah crossing to Egypt), lifting the siege, and allowing free movement of goods and people.	以色列应该承认哈马斯的治理权，这意味着开放边境（包括通往埃及的拉法）、撤围并允许贸易和人民的自由移动。


Moreover, Israel should use Egypt’s vital role in brokering the recent cease-fire as an opportunity to expand the bilateral dialogue with the new Islamist regime in Cairo to include issues of peace and regional security.	此外，以色列应该利用埃及在促进最新停火协议中的关键作用作为扩大与这个开罗的新伊斯兰政权的双边对话以讨论和平和地区安全问题的契机。


President Mohamed Morsi’s government cannot be uninterested in periodic flare-ups in Gaza, which serve only to destabilize Egypt.	埃及总统穆尔西的政府不可能在不定期死灰复燃的加沙战事中毫无利害关系，加沙的战事只能给埃及带来动荡。


The current cease-fire, however, will be as short lived as many others before it – its terms are practically identical to those that ended Operation Cast Lead – if Israel does not follow up with a vigorous peace initiative on the broader Palestinian front.	但是，当前的停火将和此前无数次停火一样短命——其协议与结束铸铅行动的停火协议并无二致——如果以色列不继之以在更广泛的巴勒斯坦问题上推进有力和平方案的话。


Europe’s Pain without Gain	欧洲的无果之痛


VITORIA-GASTEIZ – In a recent interview, French President François Hollande made the crucial, but often forgotten, point that there are limits to the level of sacrifice that can be demanded of the citizens of southern Europe’s financially distressed countries.	威托利亚-加斯泰兹——不久前的一次采访中，法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德表达了重要、但却往往被人遗忘的观点，那就是要求南欧财政困难国居民做出牺牲也必须要有限度。


To avoid turning Greece, Portugal, and Spain into collective “correctional houses,” Hollande reasoned, people need hope beyond the ever-receding horizon of spending cuts and austerity measures.	为了防止希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙沦为集体“劳教所”，奥朗德认为必须要为面临削减开支及财政紧缩所带来衰退的人们保留一丝希望的曙光。


Even the most rudimentary understanding of psychology supports Hollande’s assessment.	奥朗德的评估以最基本的心理学理解为基础。


Negative reinforcement and delayed gratification are unlikely to achieve their goals unless there is a perceived light at the end of the tunnel – a future reward for today’s sacrifices.	除非隧道的尽头投射出一线曙光（今天的牺牲能够换来今后的回报），否则纯粹的消极强化和延迟满足不太可能真正实现目标。


Public pessimism in southern Europe is largely attributable to the absence of such a reward.	看不到未来的回报在很大程度上导致了南欧民众的悲观情绪。


As declining consumer confidence and household purchasing power deepen the recession, projections of when the crisis will end are repeatedly pushed back, and those bearing the brunt of austerity are losing hope.	随着危机由于消费者信心和家庭购买力的下降而不断向纵深发展，对危机结束时点的预测也一再延后，而那些首当其冲的紧缩受害者更是越来越看不到希望。


Throughout history, the concept of sacrifice has merged theology and economics.	纵观历史，牺牲的概念将神学和经济学联系在一起。


In the ancient world, people made often-bloody offeringsto divinities, whom they believed would reward them with, say, good harvests or protection from evil.	古代世界的人们往往用血淋淋的贡品来祭祀神灵，并相信能够因此获得好的收成或者驱灾辟邪。


Christianity, with its belief that God (or the Son of God) sacrificed Himself to expiate humanity’s sins, inverted the traditional economy of sacrifice.	基督教相信上帝（或上帝之子）牺牲自己来替人类赎罪颠覆了传统的祭祀经济。


In this case, divine suffering serves as an exemplar of the selflesshumility with which earthly misfortunes should be endured.	此刻的神圣受难最终成为无私谦卑的典范，并以此要求众生秉承这种精神来忍受人世间的不幸生活。


Despite secularization, the belief that rewards, or achievements, require sacrifice has become an integral part of European cultural consciousness.	尽管无法阻挡世俗化进程的脚步，认为回报或者成就需要以牺牲来换取的理念已成为欧洲文化意识中必不可少的组成部分。


The idea of a “social contract” – which arose during the Enlightenment in orderto address, without resort to divine right, the legitimacy of the state’s authority over its citizens – rests on the premise that individuals surrender a certain degree of personal liberty in order to secure peace and prosperity for all.	诞生于启蒙运动时期的“社会契约”理念原本是为在不诉诸神权的情况下解决国家对公民权力的合法性问题，这一理念的前提是个人为实现全体民众的和平与繁荣而在一定程度上放弃个人自由权利。


As a result, political leaders have often asked citizens to sacrifice personal freedoms and comforts in the name of secularized spiritual entities, such as the nation or the state – and citizens have eagerly obliged.	结果是政治领导者往往假借民族或国家等世俗化精神实体的名义要求民众牺牲个人的舒适及自由权利，而民众也往往怀着满腔的热情照行不误。


In his first speech to the House of Commons as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Winston Churchill inspired hope in a beleaguered nation when he famously declared that he – and thus Britain – had “nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat.”	温斯顿·丘吉尔首次以英国首相的身份向下议院发表演说时，他激起了被围困国家民众的希望情绪，当时他著名的宣言是他本人——还有英国——所能“奉献的只有自己的鲜血、辛劳、热泪和和汗水。 ”


Given such countless precedents, it may be surprising that the rhetoric of sacrifice under the banner of austerity has proven so ineffective in Europe’s current crisis.	鉴于以上难以���数的先例，打着紧缩旗号让人做出牺牲的豪言壮语在欧洲目前危机中收效甚微或许有些出人意料。


Some observers blame declining levels of commitment to anything that transcends the individual, including the political system.	有些观察家把这种责任感的丧失归咎于凌驾于个人之上的任何因素，其中也包括政治制度。


But resistance to austerity in southern Europe is not rooted in general hostility toward sacrifice.	但南欧各国对紧缩政策的抵触情绪归根结底并不是因为人们反对牺牲。


Rather, Europeans have come to believe that their leaders are demanding sacrifices that do not advance their interests.	相反，抵触情绪的真正根源是因为欧洲民众相信领导人要求他们做出的无谓牺牲根本无法助长其自身的利益。


Churchill gave Britons something to look forward to: victory.	丘吉尔给予了英国民众他们所期待的东西：胜利。


Without a clear end that justifies it, sacrifice becomes meaningless.	但如果不存在证明牺牲有价值的明确的目的，牺牲也会变得毫无意义。


Prosperity was supposed to legitimize the European Union.	繁荣本应巩固欧盟的合法地位。


After the period of rapid economic growth ended, Europe’s leaders came to rely, instead, on the threat of an evil that is greater than austerity: further destabilization of debtor countries, leading to default, expulsion from the eurozone, and economic, social, and political collapse.	但在快速经济增长期结束后，欧洲领导人转而仰仗比紧缩更胜一筹的邪恶因素威胁：即债务国进一步失稳导致债务违约、而后被从欧元区驱逐出去，再之后是经济、社会和政治陷入崩溃。


But the rhetoric of fear is losing sway, because the “new deal” taking shape across southern Europe offers morerepression and less protection, thus violating the social contract’s fundamental tenets.	但是耸人听闻的老生常谈正在失去作用，因为南欧各国正在成形的“新政”压抑多于保护违反了社会契约的基本原则。


Indeed, while European citizens are being asked to sacrifice their standard of living – and even their livelihoods – for the sake of the “national economy,” transnational corporations are thriving.	其实，就在欧洲民众被要求为了“国民经济”牺牲生活水准——甚至基本生计的时候，跨国公司却是一派繁荣。


The conditions imposed by the “troika” – the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund – amount to an indefinite delay in addressing the needs of those asked to sacrifice and in repairing tattered social safety nets.	欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金等“三驾马车”强制规定的条件相当于将满足被要求牺牲者的需求和修复受损的社会安全网络无限期地延后。


Yet national governments continue to implement policies that exacerbate injustice.	然而各国政府继续实施恶化不公平现状的政策。


For example, Portugal’s 2013 budget reduces the number of tax brackets from eight to five – a move that will devastate the middle class.	比方说，葡萄牙2013年预算将纳税等级从8个削减至5个，这样的措施会让中产阶级遭受灭顶之灾。


Sacrifice used to involve ransoming the body – its pleasures, basic needs, and even vitality – for the sake of the spirit.	曾几何时牺牲意味着利用肉体的快乐、基本需求甚至于生命力来换取精神层面的解脱。


While the discourse of sacrifice persists, the logic that has shored it up for millennia has been abandoned.	尽管牺牲言论依然存在，但数千年来支撑这种言论的逻辑却已被彻底抛弃掉。


Europe’s leaders must imbue their citizens with renewed hope.	欧洲领导人必须让民众看到新的希望。


The legitimacy of “post-national” Europe – based on the EU’s obligation, enshrined in the Lisbon Treaty, to promote “the well-being of its people” – is at stake.	《里斯本条约》规定的建立在欧盟义务基础上的“后民族时代”欧洲其促进“民众幸福”的存在合理性也处在风雨飘摇之中。


The Only Game in Town	唯一可行的办法


TOKYO – What should central banks do when politicians seem incapable of acting?	东京—在政客似乎行动无能的时候，央行应该做些什么？


Thus far, they have been willing to step into the breach, finding new and increasingly unconventional ways to try to influence the direction of troubled economies.	到目前为止，它们倒是愿意挺身而出，寻早新的、越来越非常规的办法改变受困经济的前进方向。


But how can we determine when central banks overstep their limits?	但我们如何判定央行什么时候会越界？


When does boldness turn to foolhardiness?	果断和鲁莽的临界点在哪里？


Central banks can play an important role in a cyclical downturn.	在周期性衰退中，央行可以起到重要作用。


Interest-rate cuts can boost borrowing – and thus spending on investment and consumption.	降低利率可以提振借贷——从而提振投资和消费支出。


Central banks can also play a role when financial markets freeze up.	央行还可以在金融市场冻结时挺身而出。


By offering to lend freely against collateral, they “liquify” assets and prevent banks from being forced to unload loans or securities at fire-sale prices.	通过提供不需抵押的贷款，它们可以让资产“流动”起来，防止银行被迫削减贷款或以跳楼价甩卖证券。


Anticipating such liquidity insurance, banks can make illiquid long-term loans or hold other illiquid financial assets.	由于存在这类流动性保险，银行可以发放低流动性的长期贷款或持有其他低流动性金融资产。


To the extent that unconventional monetary policy – including various forms of quantitative easing, as well as pronouncements about prolonging low interest rates – serves these roles, it might be justified.	用非常规货币政策——包括各种形式的量化宽松以及宣布延长低利率期限等——实现这些目标或许不无道理。


For example, the US Federal Reserve’s first round of so-called quantitative easing (QE1), implemented in the midst of the crisis, was doubly effective: By purchasing mortgage-backed securities, the Fed brought down interest rates in that important market (in part, probably, by signaling its confidence in those securities), and restored it to vitality.	比如，实施于危机期间的美联储的第一轮所谓量化宽松（QE1）起到了双重效果：通过购买按揭支持证券，美联储拉低了这一重要市场的利率（可能部分是通过显示了其对这类证券的信心实现的），使其重获生机。


Similarly, with its outright monetary transaction (OMT) program, the European Central Bank has offered to buy peripheral eurozone countries’ sovereign bonds in the secondary market – provided that they sign up to agreed reforms.	类似地，通过直接货币交易（OMT）计划，欧洲央行将在二级市场购买欧元区外围国主权债券——只要它们拿出说好的改革方案。


The logic is that conditionality will ensure that countries are solvent, while OMTs will restore trust to a market that has broken down because investors fear that the countries concerned will exit the eurozone.	其中的逻辑是，这一条件将确保各国保持偿债能力，而OMT将能重塑人们对因投资者担心相关国家可能退出欧元区而崩溃的市场信心。


Again, its effect, thus far, has been significant.	在这方面，央行政策的效果同样是显著的。


Other unconventional policies, however, have been undertaken to stimulate the economy, rather than to deal with broken markets.	但是，其他非常规政策的实施是为了刺激经济，而不是对付萎靡的市场。


The benefits have been commensurately smaller.	其效果要小得多。


QE2, in which the Fed bought long-term government bonds, did not have a discernible effect on long-term government interest rates.	美联储购买长期政府债券的QE2就没有对长期政府利率起到可以识别的效果。


Indeed, with its recent decision to pursue QE3, the Fed is focusing once again on the mortgage-backed securities market; but, given that the market is much healthier now, it is unclear how much good this will do.	事实上，在最近决定推出的QE3中，美联储的焦点再次集中在了按揭支持证券市场； 但是，如今该市场健康状况已有重大改善，因此QE3能起到多少作用还不好说。


Recently, the Fed expressed its intent to keep policy rates low for a long time – until employment picks up strongly.	最近，美联储表达了将政策利率长期保持低水平，直到就业率重拾强势的意图。


The hope is that if investors consider this announcement credible, long-term interest rates will come down further, encouraging spending.	美联储的算盘是，如果投资者认为它的政策是有效的，那么长期利率会进一步下降，从而刺激支出。


But the immediate effect on long-term bond rates has not been encouraging.	但是，长期债券利率的即期效应并不令人振奋。


As central banks venture farther into uncharted territory, advocates argue that at worst they will do no harm.	随着央行在非其权限的领域越走越远，支持者指出，这样做的最坏结果无非是起不了积极作用而已。


In fact, no one really knows.	事实上，没人知道到底会怎样。


For example, sustained low interest rates hurt savers who traditionally prefer safe short-term investments.	比如，持续的低利率会损害偏好安全短期投资的传统储蓄者。


Pensioners and those near retirement, facing low income from interest, may cut back further on consumption, weakening the economy.	退休者以及临近退休者面临着利息收入下降的状况，可能进一步削减消费、令经济更加萎靡。


Bolder pensioners, desperate to generate higher returns, may take undue risks – for example, investing in junk bonds – that could jeopardize their nest eggs.	较激进的退休者急于获得更高的回报，可能会承担不恰当的风险，比如投资于垃圾债券，这可能影响到他们的退休金数量。


And, unfortunately, such financial risk-taking may have little impact in terms of spurring corporations to assume more risk by investing.	此外，不幸的是，这类金融风险承担行为可能不会刺激企业通过投资去承担更多风险。


Similarly, a potential downside to quantitative easing is that low interest rates send capital to higher-growth, high-interest-rate countries.	类似地，量化宽松的一个潜在危害是低利率会驱使资本流向高增长、高利率国家。


In theory, as capital floods in, these countries’ exchange rates will appreciate rapidly, making them look unattractive and automatically stemming the flow.	从理论上说，随着资本的流入，这些国家的汇率将很快升值，减少其吸引力，自动地阻止资本流入。


In practice though, as investors make money on their trades, they bring in yet more money, forcing further currency appreciation.	但在实际中，随着投资者交易的获利，他们投入了更多的资金，迫使货币进一步升值。


All too often, the process does not end smoothly but in a crash.	而通常这一过程不会平稳结束，多是以崩溃收场。


No wonder recipient countries resist inflows of hot capital.	毫不奇怪，流入国要设法阻止热钱进入了。


We also know little about how smooth the exit from quantitative easing will be.	我们也不知道量化宽松的退出过程有多平稳。


In theory, as the economy picks up and interest rates begin to climb, central banks will simply pay higher interest rates on their reserves, so that they can finance their holdings of long-term securities and shrink them slowly.	从理论上说，随着经济的复苏和利率的上升，央行所支付的储备金利息也会增加，因此它们可以为所持有的长期证券融资，并逐渐减少持有量。


But higher interest rates also imply large capital losses for central banks’ asset holdings.	但更高的利率也意味着央行持有资产的资本损失。


Even if some of these losses are offset for the government as a whole (as the central bank loses on its holdings of government debt, the treasury gains in equal measure, because the debt it owes is worth less), the losses on long-term private debt holdings are real.	即使这些损失的一部分由作为整体的政府冲销（在央行因持有政府债务而遭受损失的同时，财政部会获得等量的收益，因为它所欠的债务贬值了），长期私人债务持有量的损失仍是实实在在的。


Moreover, the argument that losses are offset is not easy to explain to the public.	此外，损失能被冲销的观点也很难向���众解释。


Will opinion be sympathetic to the Fed when politicians like Ron Paul excoriate it for losing tens of billions of dollars monthly on its asset holdings?	当罗恩·保罗（Ron Paul）等政客严厉指责美联储做持有的资产每个月都要损失数百亿美元的时候，公众会对美联储抱有同情态度吗？


Will bond markets fall sharply (and interest rates rise) as markets fear that the Fed will be pushed to sell its enormous holdings in short order?	随着市场担心美联储可能被迫忙不迭卖掉巨额证券持有量，债券市场会急剧下跌（而利率升高）吗？


A last defense offered by advocates of continuing on the path of adventurous monetary policy, even when the perceived benefits are small, is that, because politicians refuse to settle their differences and act, monetary policy is “the only game in town.”	支持者所提出的即使在可感觉的收益如此之小的情况下仍应该坚持冒险性货币政策之路的最后一个理由是，因为政客拒绝弥合分歧，采取行动，因此货币政策是“唯一可行的办法”。


In democracies, when there are no other alternatives, politicians often eventually do the right thing.	在民主国家中，当不存在其他替代方案时，政客通常能够做出正确的选择。


By creating the impression that something beneficial is being done, unconventional monetary policy relieves pressure on politicians.	通过造成某些有益之事正在做成的印象，非常规货币政策能够减轻政客的压力。


So, when central bankers argue that they are the only game in town, they are ensuring that outcome.	因此，当央行宣称它们是唯一可行的办法时，它们是在确保这一结果。


Central bankers nowadays enjoy the popularity of rock stars, and deservedly so: their response to the difficult and uncertain environment during and after the financial crisis has been largely impeccable.	如今，央行行长就像摇滚巨星一样享受着万众瞩目，这是理所当然的：他们在金融危机期间和之后面临诸多困境和不确定性所作出的反应可谓完美。


But they must be able to admit when they are out of bullets.	但他们在弹尽粮绝的时候也必须敢于承认。


After all, the transformation from hero to zero can be swift.	毕竟，从英雄到狗熊的堕落不过是一瞬间的事情。


The \	重议所谓“发展局限”


Since the Cold War’s end, all kinds of barriers have come down, and the world economy has fundamentally changed.	冷战结束以来，各种贸易壁垒纷纷解除，世界经济旧貌换新颜。


Until 1989, the global market encompassed between 800 million and one billion people.	1989年以前，全球经济包含大约8亿到10亿人口。


Today, it is three times larger, and growing.	如今增长了三倍，而且还在增长。


Indeed, we are witnessing one of the most dramatic revolutions in modern history, and it is occurring almost unnoticed.	确实，我们正在目睹现代历史上最为剧烈的革命之一，而人们对这一场革命几乎熟视无睹。


From a model applicable to the minority of the world’s population, “Western consumer society” is becoming the dominant economic model of the world, one to which there is increasingly no alternative.	“西方消费社会”已经从对世界人口少数人适用的一种模式转变为独霸全球的经济模式。 而且，这一模式越发没有可以替代的其他模式了。


By mid-century, the lives of seven billion people might be governed by its laws.	到本世纪中叶，70亿人口的生活可能会接受其规则。


The West has established the economic model of the twenty-first century, with its hitherto unheard of standard of living, and almost all nations and regions are trying to equal it, no matter what the cost.	西方已经建立了二十一世纪的经济模式，其生活水准前所未闻，而且几乎所有国家和地区都在不计代价试图追赶。


When, in the 1970’s, the Club of Rome issued its famous report on the “Limits to Growth,” the reaction was one of concern.	二十世纪七十年代之际，罗马俱乐部发布其著名的“发展局限”报告，人们对其的反应是忧心忡忡。


Over the years, however, as the world economy continued to grow without interruption – and, in the current age of globalization, seemingly without limits – the dire predictions of the Club of Rome have become increasingly an object of ridicule.	但是，多年以来，世界经济继续不停顿地增长，而在当前全球化的时代看似不可限量。 罗马俱乐部悲观的预计已经越发成为笑柄。


And yet the Club of Rome’s basic insight – that we live and work in a finite global ecosystem, with exhaustible resources and capacities – has returned to challenge us again.	但是，罗马俱乐部的基本洞察，也就是我们生活在一个容量有限的全球生态体系之中，资源以及能力总会耗尽，却再一次返回过来对我们提出挑战。


The world is not preoccupied today by the “limits to growth,” but awareness of the consequences of growth on the earth’s climate and ecosystem is becoming prevalent.	如今世界并非陷于所谓“发展局限”的考虑之中，但是，人们对人类发展对于地球气候和生态系统的后果却越发了解。


China, for example, needs annual growth rates of 10% to keep its huge economic, social, and ecological problems under control.	例如，中国需要每年保持10%的增长以控制其巨大的经济、社会以及生态问题。


There would be nothing sensational about this if China were a country like Luxembourg or Singapore.	如果中国是一个像卢森堡或者新加坡那样的国家，这也就不足为奇。


But China has 1.3 billion people.	但是中国有13亿人口。


So the consequences of its economic growth are much more serious.	所以，其经济增长的后果也就更为严重。


Global demand for energy, raw materials, and food is increasingly influenced by rising demand in China and India, whose combined population is 2.5 billion.	全球对于能源、原材料以及食品的需求日益受到中国和印度不断上升的需求的影响。 这两个国家的人口总数是25亿。


Other large and populous emerging countries in Asia and South America are following in these giants’ footsteps.	亚洲和南美的其他人口众多的大国也在效仿这两个巨人的模式。


Steadily rising prices of raw materials, agricultural products, and energy already reflect fears about future shortages.	稳步上扬的原材料、农产品以及能源的价格已经反映了对于未来短缺的担忧。


These undesirable consequences of the expansion of world markets have assumed alarming proportions within a relatively short period of time.	这些世界市场扩展带来的不良后果在相对较短的时间里大为增加，令人担忧。


China is on course, this year or next, to overtake the United States as the world’s largest CO2 emitter, even though its per capita emissions are only one-fifth or even less of the US level.	即使中国的人均二氧化碳排放水平只是美国的五分之一或者更低，它将会在今年或者明年超越美国成为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国。


What will the world look like when China reduces this difference to one-half?	如果中国的人均排放量差距缩小到二分之一，世界将会如何？


And India is following close behind China in its level of carbon emissions.	印度则在二氧化碳排放水平上紧随中国。


Will the global ecosystem be able to absorb these additional pollutants without considerable changes in the ecosphere?	全球生态系统是否有能力在不大幅度改变生态大气的情况下吸收这些额外的污染物？


Obviously not, as a large majority of climatologists are now warning.	正如大部分气候学家现在所警告的那样，这明显是无法做到的。


These basic data have been known for a long time, and only a few deny that rapidly accelerating man-made climate change is occurring.	人们了解这些基本的数据已经有很长一段时间了，而且只有个别人否认快速加剧的人为气候变化正在发生。


But one might conclude from the bizarre debates we engage in about climate change that what the world needs is a change in its political and psychological mood, rather than a profound social and economic transformation.	但是人们可以从我们参与有关气候变化的奇怪的辩论中得出结论，那就是世界需要改变其政治和心理状态，而非深刻的社会和经济转变。


So, despite grand rhetoric, very little is being done.	所以，尽管有关言论绚丽，实际行动却少之又少。


Emerging countries continue to grow every year.	新兴国家每年都继续增长。


The US has almost totally backed away from the global fight against pollution, and, through uncontrolled growth, solidifies its position as the world’s leading polluter.	美国几乎已经完全从针对污染的全球斗争中退缩，而且通过其不加控制的增长巩固了其世界主要污染国家的地位。


The same pattern holds true for Europe and Japan, albeit on a slightly smaller scale.	同样的模式对于欧洲和日本也是一样，尽管其规模小一点。


In view of this global challenge, the G-8 countries have made a heroic decision: the eight richest industrial countries – which are also the largest polluters – promised to “seriously examine” cutting their emissions in half by 2050.	鉴于这一全球挑战，八国集团做出了一项历史性的决定，也就是，八个最为富有、同时也是最大的污染国家保证“认真研究”在2050年前减少一半的排放。


This rhetorical heroism is enough to leave the world speechless.	这一历史性的英雄主义足以让世界无言。


Indeed, it remains to be seen if the European Union will even be able to implement its promise to cut CO2 emissions by 20-30% by 2020.	其实，欧洲是否能够落实其保证，在2020年前减少其二氧化碳排放20%到30%尚且有待观察。


So far, the EU has not really come up with any practical ways to do this.	目前为止，欧盟尚未提出任何实际的落实措施。


But the solution to the challenge of global climate change is as plain as day.	但是，解决全球气候变化的挑战是清晰明了的。


The only chance of improvement is to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and emissions.	唯一的改进机会就是把经济增长和能源消费以及排放分开。


This must happen in the emerging countries, and even more urgently in the old industrial economies.	新兴国家必须加以落实，其形势与老的工业化国家相比还要更为急迫。


Such decoupling can occur only if we do away with the illusion that pollution is cost-free.	我们只有改变污染无须付出代价的观念才能够实现分离。


We can no longer get away with subsidizing economic growth and standards of living at the expense of the global environment.	我们无法再以全球环境的代价来换取补贴经济增长和生活水平了。


Human population has simply become too large to be able to afford it.	人类人口数量已经太大，无法承受。


Doing away with this illusion requires the creation of a global emissions market – still a very distant goal.	消除这一观念要求建立全球排放市场，这仍然是一个遥远的目标。


It also requires more energy efficiency, which means a reduction of waste in both energy production and consumption.	这还要求更大的能源效率，这就意味着同时降低能源生产和消费的浪费。


Rising energy prices already point in this direction, but this knowledge has yet to register.	不断上涨的能源价格已经指出了这一方向，但是人们还有待了解这一情况。


Finally, it requires a technological and politico-economic breakthrough in favor of renewable energy, rather than a return to nuclear power or coal.	最后，这还要求可再生能源技术上和政治经济突破，而不是回到核能以及煤炭。


In essence, then, we are confronted by a three-pronged challenge of a new “green” industrial revolution.	这样，我们就面临三个拖长的、新“绿色”产业革命的挑战。


Coping with this global challenge also offers an enormous opportunity for future prosperity and social justice that we must seize.	处理这一全球挑战同时还给未来繁荣和社会正义提供了巨大的机遇，我们必须抓住这一机遇。


Of course, there will be many powerful losers as we make these changes.	当然，在我们做出这些转变的时候将会有许多实力不俗的落伍者。


They are not about to accept their “disempowerment” without a struggle.	他们不会束以待毙，接受其被“夺权”的状况。


At the moment, they still seem to have the upper hand, as evidenced by much talk and no action.	目前，他们依旧占据上风。 大量空谈而无实际行动上体现了这一点。


This is precisely what needs to change.	正是这一点才需要改变。


The Lingering Shadow of Mad Cow Disease	挥之不去的疯牛病阴影


Optimists are proclaiming that variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), the human form – always fatal – of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or “Mad Cow Disease,” is on the wane.	乐观主义者称牛海绵状脑病，亦称“疯牛病”可以致人死命的新型变体克雅氏病（CJD）正在逐渐消失。


Obviously, given the degree of suffering and public anxiety that variant CJD has caused, the possibility that it is receding is welcome news.	显而易见，鉴于变异型克雅氏病曾经造成的痛苦和给公众带来的忧虑，它可能的消退无疑是个好消息。


But is it true?	但情况真的是这样吗？


CJD belongs to the family of what are called prion diseases, a unique group of neurodegenerative diseases that can be transmitted.	克雅氏病是所谓朊病毒疾病的一种，这种疾病包括特定的一些能够传染的退行性神经疾病。


Although the precise nature of the disease’s transmission remains uncertain, a key event in these disorders is the conversion of the prion protein’s normal cells to an abnormal form that appears to be the major (if not the sole) component of the infection.	尽管疾病传播的准确特质还不太清楚，但其主要的结果是导致正常的朊蛋白细胞转化为一种非正常形式，从而构成主要（甚至是唯一）的感染原因。


Variant CJD was first described in 1996, following intensive surveillance activities undertaken by the UK National CJD Surveillance Unit (NCJDSU) in Edinburgh.	人们对变异型克雅氏病的认识始于1996年，当时位于爱丁堡的英国全国克雅氏病调查局(NCJDSU)开展了高强度的监控活动。


This new form of prion disease had distinctive clinical and pathological features, and occurred in young patients within a single genetic subgroup.	这种新形式的朊病毒疾病具有与众不同的临床和病理特征，主要感染同一基因分组中的年轻病人。


My colleagues and I in NCJDSU argued that this new form of human prion disease was likely to be linked to exposure to the BSE agent, probably by eating BSE-infected meat products.	我和英国克雅氏病调查局的同事们认为，这种新形式的人类朊病毒疾病很可能与感染牛海绵状脑病因子或食用感染致病因子的肉制品有关。


Later investigations have shown that the transmitting agent in variant CJD shares identical biological properties with BSE’s agent, supporting a causal relationship.	接下来的研究表明：变异型克雅氏病传染因子的生物属性与牛海绵状脑病完全相同，证明这两者之间的确存在着因果关系。


BSE occurred as an epidemic in the UK after its identification in 1986, and several million BSE-infected cattle are likely to have entered the human food chain between 1980 and 1996.	1986年被人类发现后，牛海绵状脑病就在英国传播，1980到1996年间可能有几百万头感染该病的肉牛进入了人类的食物链。


It is estimated that most of the UK population was exposed to BSE through diet at this time.	估计英国绝大多数人口在此期间都感染了牛海绵状脑病。


Subsequent epidemiological studies in the NCJDSU indicate that individuals with variant CJD are likely to have consumed more meat products than control patients, further supporting a link between these disorders.	英国克雅氏病调查局后来的流行病学研究表明：感染了变异型克雅氏病的个体可能比对照组的病人食用了更多的肉制品，这进一步证明了两者之间的联系。


Moreover, epidemiological studies indicated that BSE was likely to have been transmitted to cattle (and other species) by meat-and-bone-meal animal feed produced by UK rendering plants and exported to many countries.	不仅如此，流行病学研究还显示：牛海绵状脑病很可能通过英国工厂生产并出口到国外的肉骨粉动物饲料传给了肉牛（和其它种群）。


This pattern of trade has now been mirrored in the increasing geographical spread of BSE from the UK to other countries in Europe, and more recently to Japan and the United States.	这种贸易模式导致了牛海绵状脑病在地域上的扩散，从英国传播到欧洲其它国家、最近又流传到了日本和美国。


This unfortunately has been accompanied by increasing number of variant CJD cases in Canada, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Saudi Arabia and the USA.	不幸的是，变异型克雅氏病在加拿大、法国、爱尔兰、意大利、日本、荷兰、葡萄牙、沙特阿拉伯和美国的发病率也逐年上升。


In the UK, however, the epidemic of variant CJD seems to have peaked in 2000 and is now in decline, with 156 cases being identified so far.	但在英国，变异型克雅氏病的感染似乎在2000年到达了顶峰，而目前却有所下降，到现在发现的病例总共有156起。


However, a retrospective study of abnormal prion protein accumulation in appendix and tonsil samples from over 12,600 people in the UK has yielded three more cases, which suggests that the level of BSE infection in the UK population is much higher than the actual number of confirmed variant CJD cases indicates.	但对异常朊蛋白在12，600名英国人阑尾和扁桃体样本中的累积所进行的追溯性研究又查出了三起病例，表明英国人口中牛海绵状脑病的实际感染水平比确认为变异型克雅氏病例的数字要高得多。


Given the extensive exposure of the UK population to BSE in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, what explains the low number of confirmed cases?	由于20世纪80年代末和90年代初英国人口普遍感染了牛海绵状脑病，那么确认的发病病例数不高又做何解释呢？


One clue lies in the results of studies of the transmission of BSE and variant CJD in mice, which in many cases does not result in death from clinical disease, but instead can produce an asymptomatic “carrier state,” in which the disease has not yet manifested itself.	一条线索来自牛海绵状脑病和变异型克雅氏病在老鼠中传播状况的研究，表明这两种病在多数情况下都不会导致临床死亡，但却能够造成没有明显症状的“携带状态”，也就是疾病没有发作。


These findings have been reinforced by an extensive control study to identify risk factors for variant CJD, which recently identified two cases of human-to-human transmission of variant CJD infection through transfusions of particular types of red blood cells.	确定变异型克雅氏病风险因素的广泛性对照研究也证实了上述发现，这项研究最近发现了变异型克雅氏病通过输入特定类型的红血球在人类间传播的两起病例。


These cases are particularly interesting, because the first case resulted in the clinical onset of variant CJD (with typical symptoms and pathology) 6.5 years after the transfusion from a donor who, although asymptomatic at the time of donation, subsequently developed and died from CJD.	这些病例非常有趣，因为第一起病例在接受献血者供血6. 5年后导致了变异型克雅氏病具有典型症状和病理特征的临床发作，那位献血者虽然在献血的时候没有任何症状，但不久以后就疾病发作并因此死亡。


The second case involved a known recipient of such cells transfused from another asymptomatic donor who subsequently died from variant CJD, whereas the recipient showed no evidence of neurological disease and died of unrelated causes.	第二起病例涉及一位已知的红细胞接受者，他输入了另一位无任何症状的献血者的血液，这位捐献者后来死于变异型克雅氏病，而受血者却没有神经疾病的任何症状，最后死于其它不相关的疾病。


However, abnormal prion protein was detected in the recipient’s lymphoid tissues, indicating transmission of infection from an asymptomatic individual.	但在受血者的淋巴组织中却查出了异常的朊蛋白，这表明没有任何症状的个体也具备传染能力。


These cases have major implications for blood safety everywhere, implying additional restrictions on eligibility for blood donation and on the processing and handling of blood and blood products.	上述病例对普遍的用血安全都有着重要的意义。 它们表明要加强对献血者的条件限制，以及改善对血液和血液制品的加工处理。


Individuals infected with BSE who remain in an asymptomatic state during their lives could represent a risk to others of potential secondary transmission of variant CJD through blood transfusion or surgery.	感染了牛海绵状脑病却没有明显症状的个体对其它人构成了威胁，有可能通过输血或手术造成变异型克雅氏病的二次传染。


Further uncertainty regarding the future of variant CJD arises from the observation that the average age of the patients in the UK has not increased significantly over the past 10 years.	关于变异型克雅氏病未来的不确定性来自这样一个观察：英国发病者的平均年龄过去10年以来并没有显著增长。


If the epidemic were in decline, it might be anticipated that the average age of the patients would increase in the final stages (as occurred with cattle in the UK that were infected with BSE).	如果爆发真的呈下降趋势，那么在最后阶段病人的平均年龄应该有所上升（就像感染牛海绵状脑病的英国肉牛那样）。


But variant CJD affects patients who are much younger than sporadic CJD patients, which might be due to either age-related exposure to BSE or age-related susceptibility.	但受到变异型克雅氏病影响的人群比那些偶��变异型克雅氏病的人年龄要小很多，其原因可能是牛海绵状脑病的发作或感染与年龄有关。


Until we know the answers to these questions, it seems premature to decide that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of variant CJD.	在弄懂上述问题之前，认定变异型克雅氏病正在终结未免有些言之过早。


On the contrary, the cases identified so far may be only the tip of the iceberg, with a much larger number of asymptomatic infections posing a risk to public health through secondary transmission.	恰恰相反，目前发现的病例也许只是冰山的一角，而有大量无任何症状的感染正通过二次传播对公众健康造成危害。


Indeed, secondary transmission by blood transfusion or surgical instruments might even result in variant CJD becoming endemic in the UK population.	实际上，输血或手术器械造成的二次感染甚至可能导致变异型克雅氏病在英国公众中大规模流行。


This would prove impossible to eradicate in the absence of improved means of cleaning and decontaminating surgical instruments and a specific test – preferably based on a blood assay – to screen asymptomatic carriers.	如果不改进清洁消毒手术器械的方法和引进特别的病毒检验（基于血液化验）来筛查那些无症状携带者，传染的可能性就不可能彻底根除。


Nutrition for Growth	为了增长的营养


GENEVA – This week, British Prime Minister David Cameron, whose country holds this year’s G-8 Presidency, is hosting a “Nutrition for Growth” summit in London.	日内瓦—本周，今年G8轮值主席国英国首相卡梅伦主持了伦敦“为了增长的营养”（Nutrition for Growth）峰会。


The issue could not be more urgent.	这是个极其紧迫的问题。


We need the political will to tackle malnutrition now, with access to nutritious food recognized as a fundamental human right.	我们需要马上解决营养不良的政治意愿，把获得营养食品作为基本人群。


Malnutrition kills an innocent child every five seconds, and is responsible for 11% of the global burden of disease.	营养不良每五秒钟就要夺走一名无辜儿童的生命，全球死亡人数中有11%是因为营养不良引起的。


The summit rightly focuses on the direct links between nutrition and productivity, economic growth, and political stability.	本次峰会正确地将注意力集中于营养和生产率、经济增长和政治稳定之间的直接关系上。


Investment in nutrition is investment in generations of children in poor communities, and the summit must place women and mothers at the center of proposed solutions.	营养投资就是投资于贫困社会的儿童，峰会必须把妇女和母亲作为解决方案的核心。


That is all the more important because a new baby boom is taking place – not in the United States or Europe, but in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.	这之所以重要，是因为新一轮婴儿潮正在来临——不是在美国和欧洲，而是在撒哈拉以南非洲和东南亚。


Infants born over the next 20 years will enter adulthood at a unique time: these regions’ working populations will outnumber their non-working populations by two to one.	未来20年出生的婴儿步入成人时将面临独一无二的时代：这些地区的工作人口比非工作人口多两倍。


This provides a rare opportunity to boost economic growth, save and improve lives, and help families, communities, and countries move from poverty to prosperity.	这是提振经济增长、拯救和改善生命以及帮助家庭、社区和国家从贫困走向繁荣的的宝贵良机。


Recent research has shown that nutrition can be a major catalyst of inclusive economic growth, with each dollar of investment yielding a return of $15-138 dollars.	最新研究表明，营养可以成为包容性经济增长的强大催化剂，每一美元投资可以产生15—138美元的回报。


Defeating malnutrition is not only an ethical duty; we also know that it can boost GDP growth in Africa and Asia by up to 11%.	战胜营养不良不仅是道义上的责任，我们还知道这可以让非洲和亚洲的GDP增长最多提高11%。


We now know that giving pregnant mothers and their babies essential nutrients in the critical 1,000-day window from conception to a child’s second birthday is the best investment in their health and that of society at large.	现在我们知道，对于孕妇和他的婴儿来说，在开始怀孕到婴儿两周岁这一千天是关键的时间窗口，让他们在此期间获得必须营养素是对他们的健康和整个社会的最佳投资。


The alternative is stunting, which currently afflicts an astronomical 165 million children.	否则就会造成生长迟缓，如今受此折磨的儿童达到了惊人的1.


Indeed, stunting has come to represent the true face of contemporary global poverty, causing irreparable damage to children’s cognitive development and physical growth.	65亿人。 事实上，生长迟缓代表了当代全球贫困的真实面目，给儿童认知发育和生理生长造成不可挽回的伤害。


Moreover, there is ample medical evidence that malnutrition in this “window of nutrition” is linked to increases in hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and even obesity, resulting in higher health-care costs later in life.	此外，充分的医学证据表明，这一“营养窗口期”的营养不良与高血压、心血管疾病、糖尿病甚至肥胖的增加有关，造成晚年医疗支出增加。


But in India, a 2011 study of 112 rural districts across the country found that “less than 20% of mothers had heard the word for malnutrition in their local language.”	但是，在印度，一份2011年关于全国112个农村区域的研究发现“不到20%的母亲知道她们的方言中还有营养不良一说。 ”


In Africa, most food is produced by women smallholder farmers.	在非洲，大部分粮食是由小农妇女生产的。


Yet malnutrition is rife because these women own only 2% of the land and access only 10% of the available extension services.	但饮养不良普遍存在，因为这些妇女只获得了2%的土地，并且只能得到10%的可获得延伸服务。


To paraphrase what many women farmers have said to me, “We are the primary producers.	许多农民妇女像我描述说：“我们是只要生产者。


But we receive very little for our hard work, because by the time our produce reaches the market, middlemen have taken the profit.	但艰苦劳动并没有给我们带来多少东西，因为当我们的产物到达市场时，利润都被中间人拿走了。


But Africa would starve if we went on strike.”	但如果我们罢工抗议，非洲就会陷入饥荒。 ”


Any solution to hunger and malnutrition must place such women at its core.	任何解决饥饿和营养不良问题的方案都必须把这些妇女放在核心地位。


Recent development research is unambiguous: empowering women and raising their incomes results in better education, health, and nutrition for their children.	最新的发展研究明确指出：授予妇女权利、提高她们的收入能给她们的孩子带来更好的教育、卫生和营养。


We must make markets work for them and their families.	我们必须让市场有利于她们和她们的家庭。


The summit’s appeal for global unity to combat malnutrition must target heads of state, finance and health ministers, as well as business and civil-society leaders.	峰会呼吁全球团结起来与营养不良作斗争，其目标必须定在国家首脑、财政和卫生部长以及商界和公民社会领袖。


We have to make the food system work for all citizens, which requires stronger action from each of these actors.	我们必须让粮食体系为所有人民工作，这要求所有行动方加强行动。


In particular, governments must invest in nutrition through budgets, introduce mandatory fortification of staple foods, curb “junk food,” and improve quality control.	特别是，政府必须通过预算、引入强制性的强化主食、抑制“垃圾食品”以及改善质量控制等方式投资于营养。


Similarly, civil-society organizations must build robust advocacy and education programs that work with local communities to change unhealthy eating habits, emphasize the critical importance of exclusive breast feeding in the first six months, and explain the link between lifestyle, diet, and exercise in preventing disease.	类似地，公民社会组织必须建立稳健的宣传和教育计划，与地方社区合作改变不健康饮食习惯，强调半岁以内纯母乳喂养的关键重要性，揭示生活方式、饮食和锻炼在预防疾病方面的作用。


Finally, the business community should use its management expertise, marketing, technology, logistical capacity, and reach to improve the quality and affordability of nutritious foods on the market.	最后，商业街应该利用其管理专长、营销、技术、物流能力和接触面改善营养食品的市场质量和价格。


Moreover, large companies should use their global supply chains to empower their workforces and women smallholder farmers.	此外，大公司应该利用其全球供应链武装工作人员和妇女小农。


Local, large-scale solutions are emerging.	地方性大规模解决方案正在涌现。


In Bangladesh, where the rate of malnutrition is among the highest in the world, an affordable vitamin and mineral supplement is now available that can be added to porridge and soup.	在营养不良率长期占据世界之首的孟加拉国，可承受维生素和矿物质添加剂已经出现可以添加在粥和汤中。


A partnership between BRAC, the world’s largest development NGO, and the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical company Renata produces the supplement from locally available chickpeas and lentils; tens of thousands of health-care workers then distribute it.	BRAC（世界最大的非政府发展组织）和孟加拉国制药公司Renata合作，就地取材，用鹰嘴豆和豌豆生产这一添加剂； 并由几万卫生工作者负责分销。


Similarly, in India’s Rajasthan state, high-quality complementary foods produced by decentralized women’s self-help groups are improving the nutrition of children aged 6-36 months.	类似地，在印度的拉贾斯坦邦，由分散性妇女自助团地制作的高质量补充性食物正在改善6—36个月大的儿童的营养。


In Ghana, a new instant maize-based product, enriched with vitamins and minerals, is the first of its kind on the market, owing to its affordability and natural integration with breastfeeding.	在加纳，一种维生素和矿物质强化的新型婴儿玉米食品填补了市场空白，它价格低廉，且可以与母乳喂养自然结合。


As a result, the nutrition of more than one million children will be improved during their first 1,000 days of life.	结果，一百多万儿童在生命得以获得生命第一个1000天中的营养改善。


We need greater innovation in finding solutions.	我们需要更伟大的创新以找到解决方案。


We need partnerships that leverage the knowledge and solutions that come from local communities.	我们需要利用来自地方社区的知识和解决方案的合作。


While we recognize the commitment of the United Kingdom in promoting the new Scaling Up Nutrition movement, coordinated by the United Nations, we also know that who sits at the table to design solutions determines who eats at the table later.	我们欣赏英国所做出的与联合国合作促进新“加强营养”（Scaling Up Nutrition）运动的承诺，但我们也知道，谁设计方案决定了谁能得到最多。


By investing now in nutrition and improved food security, by 2020 we can lift 50 million people out of poverty, prevent stunting in 20 million children under the age of five, and save 1.7 million lives.	现在投资于营养和食品安全可以让我们在2020年使5000万人走出贫困，预防2000万五岁以下儿童生长迟缓，并拯救170万条生命。


The Liquidity Puzzle	流动性之谜


We increasingly hear that “the world is awash with liquidity,” and that this justifies expecting asset prices to continue rising.	我们越来越多地听到“流动性泛滥”这个词，并说正是它会造成资产价格的持续攀升。


But what does such liquidity mean, and is there really reason to expect that it will sustain further increases in stock and real estate prices?	但是这种流动性到底意味着什么，并且真的有理由可以认为它会导致股票和房地产价格的继续上涨吗？


Liquid assets are assets that resemble cash, because they can easily be converted into cash and used to buy other assets.	流动资产是与现金类似的资产，因为它们可以被很容易地转换成现金并且用来购买其他资产。


The idea seems to be that there are a lot of liquid assets lying around, and that they are being used to get money to bid up the prices of stocks, housing, land, art, etc.	大家似乎认为存在大量的流动资产，并且它们正被用来换成钱来哄抬股票、住房、土地、艺术品等的价格。


That theory sounds as general and fundamental as the theory that global warming is melting glaciers and raising sea levels around the world.	这种理论听上去像是与全球变暖正在溶化全世界的冰川和导致海平面的上升的理论一样的整体和基本的理论。


Rising sea levels would explain a lot of geological and economic events.	海平面上升可以解释许多地理和经济事件。


Is rising financial liquidity really a similar force?	但是金融流动性的上升真的是一种类似的力量吗？


What is this theory anyway?	这到底 是 怎样的一种理论呢？


Traditionally, “awash with liquidity” would suggest that the world’s central banks are expanding the money supply too much, causing too much money chasing too few goods.	传统上讲，“流动性泛滥”意味着世界各国的中央银行过分地扩大货币供应，造成过多的钱追逐过少的货物的现象。


But if that were the problem, one would cause all prices – including, say, clothing and haircuts – to rise.	但是如果问题是这样的话，那么 所有的 价格——就是说，包括服饰和理发的价格——都应该上涨才对。


That is what the Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur Burns meant when he said that the United States was “awash with liquidity” in 1971, a period when the concern was general inflation.	这正是美联储前主席伯恩斯在1971年说美国面临“流动性泛滥”时所指的情况，当时大家担心会发生全面的通货膨胀。


But the recent popular use of the term “awash with liquidity” dates to 2005, a time when many central banks were tightening monetary policy.	但是最近一次对“流动性泛滥”这个词的大量运用始于2005年，当时许多中央银行正在实行紧缩的货币政策。


In the US, the Fed was sharply raising rates.	在美国，联邦储备基金会大幅提高了利率。


Central banks worldwide clearly have been behaving quite responsibly with regard to general inflation since 2005.	世界各国的中央银行自从2005年以来在应对全面通货膨胀的问题上很显然采取了非常负责任的态度。


According to the IMF, world inflation, as measured by consumer price indices, has generally been declining since 2005, and has picked up only slightly in 2007.	根据世界货币基金组织的统计，运用消费者价格指数所衡量的世界通货膨胀自2005年以来在总体上呈下降的趋势，只不过在2007年有小幅的上涨。


So it is something of a puzzle why people started using the term so much in 2005.	所以人们为什么开始在2005年如此多地使用这个词实在是有些让人费解。


It may have had something to do with the near-total lack of response of long-term interest rates to monetary tightening.	这也许与长期利率对货币紧缩几乎完全的无动于衷有关。


If central banks are tightening and long-term rates aren’t rising, one needs some explanation.	如果中央银行在收缩银根而长期利率却没有上升，那么人们需要 某种 解释。


Liquidity is just a nice-sounding word to interpret this phenomenon.	而流动性正好是一个看上去可以用来很好地解释这种现象的词汇。


Another interpretation is that people are saving a great deal, and that all this money is chasing investment assets, bidding up prices.	另一种解释是人们储蓄了大量的钱，而所有这些钱正在追逐投资资产，从而哄抬了价格。


Current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke raised this idea a few years ago, alleging a world “saving glut.”	现任美联储主席伯南克几年前提出了这种观点，称这是一个“储蓄过量”的世界。


But, once again, the data do not bear this out.	但是数据又一次并不支持这种观点。


The IMF’s world saving rate has maintained a fairly consistent downward trend since the early 1970’s, and, while it has picked up since 2002, it is still well below the peak levels attained in the previous three decades.	世界货币基金组织的世界储蓄率自从二十世纪七十年代初期以来一直呈一个持续的下滑趋势，尽管它在2002年有了一定的上扬，但还是远远低于过去三十年的最高水平。


True, savings rates in emerging markets and oil-rich countries have been increasing since 1970, and especially in the last few years, but this has been offset by declining saving rates in advanced countries.	确实，新兴市场和富含石油的国家的储蓄率自二十世纪七十年代以来是上升的，但是它被发达国家下降的储蓄率抵消了。


Another interpretation is that “awash with liquidity” merely means that interest rates are low.	还有一种解释是“流动性泛滥”仅仅意味着利率处在较低的水平。


But interest rates have been increasing around the world since 2003.	但是世界各国的利率自2003年以来一直呈上升态势。


Hardly anyone was saying the world was “awash with liquidity” in 2003.	没有多少人在2003年的时候说世界面临“流动性泛滥”的现象。


The use of the term has grown in parallel with rising , not falling, interest rates.	对这个词汇的运用的增多是与利率的 上升 ，而不是下降的趋势相一致的。


Yet another theory is that changes in our ways of handling risk have reduced risk premia.	然而另一种理论认为是因为我们应对风险的方式的改变减少了风险贴水。


The growth of the financial markets’ sophistication has allowed risks to be sliced and diced and spread further than ever before.	金融市场的高度发展允许风险被大快切割然后被散布到比以前更广泛的区域。


Indeed, the much-vaunted market for collateralized debt obligations, which divides risks into tranches and places the different risk levels in different places according to the willingness to accept them, has plausibly played a role in boosting asset prices.	事实上，被吹嘘得很厉害的债务抵押市场——把风险分割成一小份一小份，然后根据接收它们的意愿在不同的地方为它们赋予不同的风险水平，貌似有理地在抬高资产价格的过程中扮演了重要角色。


But this is really a theory about risk management for certain kinds of products, not “liquidity” per se .	但是这实际上是一种有关某些种类的产品——而不是“流动性”本身——的风险管理的理论。


Hyun Song Shin of Princeton University proposed a theory of excess liquidity in a paper with Tobias Adrian that he presented last month at the Bank for International Settlements in Brunnen, Switzerland.	普林斯顿大学的Hyun Song Shin在他与Tobias Adrian合作的一份上个月提交给位于瑞士布鲁嫩的国际结算银行的报告中提出了一种过量流动性的理论。


He says that it merely reflects a feedback mechanism that is always present: any initial upward shock to asset prices strengthens the balance sheets of financial institutions, so in response they borrow more and bid up prices even more.	他说这只是反映了一种总是会表现出来的反馈机制：任何起初的资产价格上涨的冲击都大大加强了金融机构资产负债表的账目，从而促使它们去借更多的钱，并因为把价格抬得更高。


But if that is what the term “awash with liquidity” means, then its widespread use today is simply a reflection of the high asset prices that we already have.	但是如果这就是“流动性泛滥”的意思的话，那么它今天的广泛应用只不过是反映了我们已经拥有的很高的资产价格。


It could even be called an approximate synonym for “bubbly.”	甚至它可以被近似于看作是“泡沫化”的同义词。


The term “awash with liquidity” was last in vogue just before the US stock market crash of October 19, 1987, the biggest one-day price drop in world history.	“流动性泛滥”一词上一次成为时尚出现在1987年10月19日发生的美国股市暴跌之前——当时创造了世界历史上单日的最大跌幅。


The reasons for that crash are complex, but, as I discovered in my questionnaire survey a week later, it would appear that people ultimately did not trust the market’s level.	那次暴跌的原因很复杂，但是，根据我从一周后我进行的调查问卷中所发现的，原因似乎是人们最终不再相信市场的价格水平。


As a result, they were interested in strategies – such as the portfolio insurance strategies that were popular at the time – that would allow them to exit the market fast.	其结果是，他们认为通过策略——比如在当时非常流行的保险策略投资组合——可以帮助他们快速地离开市场。


The term “awash with liquidity” was also used often in 1999 and 2000, just before the major peak in the stock market.	“流动性泛滥”一词在1999-2000年间股市即将迎来大幅上涨之前也很流行。


So its popular use seems not to reflect anything we can put our finger on, but instead a general feeling that markets are bubbly and a lack of confidence in their levels.	所以它的流行似乎并不能反映我们找出了问题所在，而只是一种市场存在泡沫并且对市场价格的水平缺乏信心的总体的感觉。


Under this interpretation, the term’s popularity is a source of concern: it may indicate a market psychology that could lead to downward volatility in prices.	按照这种解释，这个词的流行源于一种担心：它可能意味着一种最终将导致价格不再那么易变的市场心理。


The Logic of the Informal Economy	非正规经济的逻辑


CAMBRIDGE – A specter is haunting the world’s developing countries – the specter of the “informal” economy.	坎布里奇——“非正规”经济的阴霾困扰着发展中国家经济。


For some, the informal sector includes all businesses that have not been registered with the authorities.	有人说非正规部门包括所有未在当局注册的企业。


For others, it refers to businesses that escape taxation.	还有人说非正规企业可以避税。


The International Labor Organization defines it as comprising firms that are small enough to fall outside the labor code.	国际劳工组织的定义是不在劳动法管辖范围内的小型企业。


Whatever the definition, what has concerned many economists and gained policymakers’ attention is that the size distribution of firms in developing countries has a long tail.	抛开定义不谈，众多经济学家和决策者关注的是发展中国家企业的规模分布拖着长长的尾巴。


Compared to developed countries, an unusually large number of small, unproductive firms coexist with a small number of large, productive firms.	相比于发达国家，除少数高效大型企业外，发展中国家的低效小型企业异乎寻常的多。


According to standard economic reasoning, this is inefficient.	在标准经济推理中这象征着效率低下。


If the small, unproductive firms closed down and the larger, more productive firms hired their workers, total output and well-being would rise.	如果低效小企业倒闭后工人被高效大企业雇佣，总产量和生活水平都会提高。


This should happen automatically through the invisible hand of competition, because the more productive firms should be able to deliver a better product at a lower price, while luring workers with higher wages.	无形的市场之手本该不费吹灰之力做到这一点，因为高效企业能低价制造出更好的产品，并以高薪吸引工人。


So, why doesn’t this happen routinely in developing countries?	那么这在发展中国家为什么没能实现？


Why do the inefficient firms survive, trapping resources in low-productivity activities?	为什么低效企业持续生存，把资源耗费在低效活动之中？


What is preventing the market from working its magic and making everyone better off?	是什么让市场失去了魔力，无法改善人们的生活水平？


For some, the problem is that government regulations make compliance too onerous for small firms.	有人说这是因为小企业遵守政府法规的义务过于繁重。


Others claim that tax evasion creates an unfair advantage for informal firms, or that family-wide health care gives households no incentive to have more than one member pay social-security taxes.	也有人说逃税赋予了非正规企业不正当竞争优势，或者是家庭医疗保险制让家庭不愿为一个以上成员缴纳社保费用。


For still others, programs that target the informal sector distort the playing field.	还有人认为，针对非正规部门的计划破坏了公平竞争。


In an effort to address the problem, governments in Colombia, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, and elsewhere have been busy changing their tax codes, redesigning their registration systems, and exploring the potentially perverse incentive problems associated with social-welfare programs.	为了解决问题，哥伦比亚、墨西哥、秘鲁、南非及他国政府忙于修改税法、设计注册系统，及对社会福利计划的不正当激励问题进行研究。


While the jury is still out on the effectiveness of any of these initiatives, I would bet against their success.	虽然相关计划是否有效现在还很难确定，但我打赌计划不会成功。


It requires many years of training and abstract economic thinking to miss the obvious.	多年培训和抽象经济思维让人们反而忽略了最明显的事实。


The salient characteristic of modern production is that it mobilizes a lot of knowhow – too much to fit in the head of any single person.	现代化生产的显著特征是需要大量的专有技术，如此众多的技术任何人都很难独立掌握。


Efficient production requires a division of labor among those who know about technology, marketing, finance, logistics, human-resource management, contracts, regulations, distribution, customer service, and much else.	高效生产需要对掌握技术、营销、财务、物流、人力资源管理、合同、法规、销售、客户服务和众多其他技能的人进行分工。


It requires manual and intellectual skills that must be used in tandem.	实现这一目标需要脑体并重。


Just think of the different specialized skills (many of them recognized by the Oscars) that must come together to make a single film.	只要想想构成公司运作的各项专业技能（其中不少设立了奥斯卡奖项）就知道其中涉及的难度。


To bring these skills together, people have to be integrated into cooperative arrangements in the same firm or within clusters of related firms.	各工种必须在同一企业或相关企业群内通力合作，才能让这些技能共同发挥作用。


But, in order to get together to work, people have to travel from their homes to production sites.	但人们必须从家来到工厂才能聚到一起工作。


How do they do that?	他们要怎样才能做到？


In the typical developing-country city, they do so with difficulty.	在典型的发展中国家城市做到这一点很有难度。


Daily commute times for low-income formal-sector workers often exceed three hours, and the average direct cost of transportation is equivalent to roughly two hours of work at the minimum wage.	低收入正规部门职工日通勤时间往往在三小时以上，而且平均直接交通成本约等于最低工资者两小时的工资总和。


An eight-hour shift becomes an 11-hour shift for which net pay is only six hours.	8小时工作制也因此变成11小时工作制，但只有6小时工作能拿到净收入。


This implies an effective tax rate of 45% on low-income formal-sector workers.	这相当于对低收入正规部门职工实际征收45%的税率。


Add to this the inconvenience of travel and the potential problems caused by being far from home in case of a family emergency.	这还不算上下班的不便和突发紧急情况时离家在外的潜在难度。


With these considerations in mind, it becomes easier to understand why people would prefer to do something useful near home rather than where modern production takes place.	考虑到这些因素，我们就不难理解人们为什么更愿意在家附近而不是现代化工厂找份工作。


But in the shantytowns where developing countries’ urban poor live, there are few varieties of skill that people can mix with their own to make things productively.	但发展中国家城市贫困人口棚户区急缺拼凑起来即可实现高效生产的各类技巧。


As a result, the only feasible forms of production use very few low-skilled workers – and thus operate at low productivity.	于是唯一可行的生产形式只能吸纳少数低技术工人，生产效率也极为糟糕。


They specialize in food preparation, retail, construction, repairs, Internet cafes, and myriad other activities that can be carried out at home and sold to neighbors (often through a window facing the street).	他们一般从事食品制作、零售、建筑、维修、网吧和其他几种可以在家完成并（通过临街窗口）向邻里出售的活动。


Economists and policymakers have disregarded the physical aspects of urban life.	经济学家和决策者忽视了城市生活的物理功能。


Housing policy is typically discussed with blatant disregard for urban transport and the locations where industrial and business zones are authorized.	探讨住房政策时往往公然无视城市交通和授权工商业区的位置因素。


When planners designed Punta Cana – the very successful tourist destination in the Dominican Republic – or the giant Fiat plant in Betim, Brazil, they forgot to plan for their workers’ housing.	规划者在设计多米尼加共和国明星旅游胜地蓬塔卡纳或巴西贝蒂姆的巨型菲亚特工厂时忘了考虑工人的住房规划。


Not surprisingly, shantytowns quickly developed.	于是棚户区自然蔓延得非常迅速。


The informal sector is mostly a consequence of the fact that people are disconnected from modern production networks – an inefficiency that will not be resolved simply by reducing the cost of registering a business or forcing small firms to pay taxes.	非正规部门往往是人与现代化生产网络脱节的结果——单纯降低企业注册成本或逼迫小企业纳税无法让效率提高。


What is required is a redesign of urban space, including subways and dedicated bus lanes, and a more integrated approach to housing, social services, and production areas.	我们需要重新设计地铁和公交专用道等城市空间，并综合考虑住房、社会服务和生产区域等各项规划。


Governments will have to start doing some good things, not just stop doing some bad ones.	政府必须开始做点好事，而不只是不做坏事就算完成任务。


Beggar Thy Currency Or Thy Self?	贬值货币还是贬值国家？


NEWPORT BEACH – Not many countries nowadays seek a strong exchange rate; a few, including systemically important ones, are already actively weakening their currencies.	发自纽波特滩——现在追求强势货币的国家不是很多； 一些国家——包括那些具有系统重要性的——已经开始积极降低本国货币汇率。


Yet, because an exchange rate is a relative price, all currencies cannot weaken simultaneously.	但由于汇率是一个相对价格，所有的货币不可能同时贬值。


How the world resolves this basic inconsistency over the next few years will have a major impact on prospects for growth, employment, income distribution, and the functioning of the global economy.	而在接下来的几年里，全世界对这一基本矛盾的解决方法将会对经济增长、就业率、收入分配及全球经济运行的前景产生重大的影响。


Japan is the latest country to say enough is enough.	而日本则是最近的一个无法再容忍这一争相贬值现象的国家。


Having seen its currency appreciate dramatically in recent years, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s new government is taking steps to alter the country’s exchange-rate dynamic – and is succeeding.	眼看着本国货币近几年来戏剧性地升值，首相安倍晋三（Shinzo Abe）所领导的新政府正在采取措施改变本国货币汇率的动向——并且成效显著。


In just over two months, the yen has weakened by more than 10% against the dollar and close to 20% against the euro.	在短短两个月间，日元对美元的汇率就下跌了10%，而对欧元则下跌了近20%。


European leaders have already expressed reservations about Japan’s moves.	欧洲领导人对日本的举措持保留意见。


The US auto industry is up in arms.	美国汽车工业则对此大动肝火。


And, a few days ago, Jens Weidmann, the president of the Bundesbank, publicly warned that the world risks a harmful and ultimately futile round of competitive exchange-rate depreciations – or, more bluntly, a “currency war” (a term used previously by Brazil to express similar concerns).	几天前，德国联邦银行行长——延斯·魏德曼（Jens Weidmann）就发出了警告：现在世界正面临着一轮有害并且徒劳的竞争性汇率贬值——或者更直白地说是一场“汇率战”（这个术语之前被巴西用来表达类似的担忧）的风险。


Of course, Japan is not the first country to go down this path.	当然，日本并不是第一个走这条路的国家。


Several advanced and emerging economies preceded it, and I suspect that quite a few will follow it.	好几个发达及新兴国家都领先于日本之前，而且我猜不少国家也会步其后尘。


It is just over a year since Switzerland surprised many when it announced, and strictly implemented, a threshold beyond which its currency would not be allowed to appreciate against the euro.	以瑞士为例，该国在一年前就令人惊讶地宣布（并严格执行）了一个阈值——如果超过这个阈值其货币就不能继续对欧元升值。


And, remember, the country’s operating model for centuries has been to provide a safe haven for foreign capital.	而请留意这个国家好几个世纪以来的运作模式就是为外国资本提供安全的港湾。


One need not be an economist to figure out that, while all currencies can (and do) depreciate against something else (like gold, land, and other real assets), by definition they cannot all weaken against each other.	我们不需要成为一个经济学家就能明白，货币能（或者确实）对其他资产（比如黄金、土地和其他不动产）贬值，但显然它们不能全体一起相互贬值。


In order for some currencies to depreciate, others must appreciate.	某些货币贬值，其他货币则必然会相对升值。


Here is where things get interesting, complex, and potentially dangerous.	因此事情也就变得有趣、复杂且隐含潜在的风险。


In today’s world, no significant group of countries is looking for currency strength.	当今世界，没有哪几个重要国家集团会寻求货币强势。


Some resist appreciation actively and openly; others do so in a less visible manner.	有些国家积极并公开地抵制升值； 另一些国家则做得不这么明显。


Only the eurozone seems to accept being on the receiving end of other countries’ actions.	似乎只有欧元区的国家愿意成为其它国家行为影响的承受者。


None of this is unprecedented, and there is a lot of scholarship demonstrating why such beggar-thy-neighbor approaches result in bad collective outcomes.	这些现象不是没有先例的，而且有很多的学术研究表明这种以邻为壑争相贬值的做法会导致整体性的负面结果。


Indeed, multilateral agreements are in place to minimize this risk, including at the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization.	事实上多边协议就是设计用来最小化这类风险的，其中就包括国际货币基金组织和世界贸易组织层面上所达成的协议。


Yet, when push comes to shove, country after country is being dragged into abetting a potentially harmful outcome for the global economy as a whole.	然而到了紧要关头，一个又一个国家被推到了陷整个全球经济于危难的困境。


Worse, this process has not yet registered seriously on the multilateral policy agenda.	更糟糕的是，这一进程还没有被严肃认真地提到多边政策的议程之上。


There are many reasons for this, ranging from the rather debilitated state of multilateral governance to the urgency of domestic issues currently commanding national policymakers’ attention.	导致这个结果的原因有很多：从多边治理穷于应付的状态到国内问题的紧迫性占据了当前国家决策者的注意力。


But there is also something else at work: The causes of today’s predicament are difficult to comprehend and counter effectively.	但是也有其他因素在起作用：导致当前这种困境的成因不但不容易被理解，而且还难以有效��对。


Unlike the old days, the threat of currency wars is not directly related to trade imbalances and balance-of-payments crises.	与过去不同，货币战争的威胁并不直接与贸易不平衡和国际收支危机相关。


Rather, an important driver is major central banks’ pursuit of experimental measures in order to compensate for policy inadequacies and political dysfunction elsewhere.	相反，其中一个重要的驱动力是各主要国央行都采取实验性的措施来补偿其他方面的政策失当和政治系统运作失调。


If the world is to avoid serious harm, it is important to understand the dynamics at work.	如果想要避免此举对世界的严重伤害，那么理解这些正在起作用的动力就非常重要。


A simplified description runs as follows: Facing low growth and high unemployment, and with other policymakers stuck on the sideline, a central bank like the US Federal Reserve feels that it has no choice but to adopt a highly accommodating monetary policy.	简单来说：面对缓慢增长和高失业率，并且其他国家的决策人对此袖手旁观这种情况，像美联储这样的央行就会觉得它除了采用一个高度宽松的货币政策外别无选择。


As policy interest rates are already floored at zero, it is compelled to venture ever deeper into the uncharted realm of “unconventional policies.”	由于政策利率已经低到接近为零，它被迫冒险进入“非常规政策”的未知领域。


The aim, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said again in December, is to “push” investors to take more risk.	正如美联储主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）12月所说，目标是“逼迫”投资者冒更大的风险。


Specifically, it is hoped that an artificial surge in asset prices will make people feel richer and more optimistic, thus triggering “wealth effects” and “animal spirits” that stimulate consumption and investment spending, bolster job creation, and, in the process, “validate” the artificial asset pricing.	具体地说，是希望人为的资产价格飙升会让人觉得更富有更乐观，从而引发“财富效应”和“动物精神”，从而刺激消费投资支出、创造就业机会并在这个过程中使人为的资产定价“得以生效”。


In practice, the strategy has proved not to be so straightforward.	实践已经证明这个策略并没有这么简单。


Moreover, part of the liquidity that the Fed injects finds its way into other countries’ financial markets.	此外，美联储注入的部分流动性也渗入到了其它国家的金融市场。


Witness the surge in capital flows to emerging markets as investors chase higher financial returns.	由于投资者追求更高的经济回报，我们会见证了激增的资本不断流向新兴市场。


Complicating matters even more, these inflows have become less and less connected to the recipient countries’ economic and financial fundamentals.	让事情更加复杂的是，这些资金流入与接受国的经济及金融基本面越来越不相关。


Many investors also feel the need to balance increasingly speculative investments (“satellite positioning”) with much safer investments (“core positioning”).	很多投资者也觉得需要在投机性越来越强的投资（“卫星定位”）与更为安全的投资（“核心定位”）之间实现平衡。


To meet the latter objective, they turn to prudently managed countries, placing upward pressure on their currencies, too – and, again, beyond what would be warranted by domestic fundamentals.	为了达到后一个目标，他们转向那些谨慎管理的国家，给其货币带来升值压力，而且又一次超过本国经济基本面可以担保的水平。


It is no wonder that more and more governments are worried about exchange-rate appreciation.	难怪越来越多的政府担心汇率升值。


In addition to short-term policy headaches, stronger currencies carry potentially significant costs in terms of hollowing out industrial and service sectors.	除了令人头痛的短期政策，强势货币就挖空工业和服务业而言，具有巨大的潜在成本。


So, after a varying mix of tolerance and “heterodox” responses, officials are pulled into loosening their own monetary policy in order to weaken their countries’ currencies or, at a minimum, limit the pace of appreciation.	因此，在各种宽容及“异端”反应之后，官员们被迫放松其货币政策，以削弱本国货币的价值，或者至少限制货币升值的速率。


This period of expanding policy inconsistencies could prove to be temporary and reversible if central banks succeed in jolting economies out of their malaise, and if countries come to recognize that greater cross-border policy coordination is urgently needed.	这一扩张政策的矛盾时期有可能是暂时且可逆的，如果各国央行成功使其经济摆脱低迷，或者各国意识到如今急需实现更广泛的跨国政策协调。


The risk is that the phenomenon leads to widespread disruptions, as increasingly difficult national policy challenges stoke regional tensions and the multilateral system proves unable to reconcile imbalances safely.	而风险在于这种现象会导致广泛的破坏，由于国家政策挑战加剧了地区冲突，而多边系统无法安全地协调失衡。


If policymakers are not careful – and lucky – the magnitude of this risk will increase significantly in the years ahead.	如果决策者不够谨慎——也不够幸运的话——这种风险的范围就将在未来几年显著上升。


The Long March in Nepal	尼泊尔的长征


KATMANDU – Confounding everyone except themselves, Nepal’s hard-line Maoists have taken a commanding role following the country’s landmark elections.	加德满都amp#45;amp#45;尼泊尔的毛派主义者出乎所有人的意料在该国历史性选举中获得了多数。


The people of Nepal have more than one reason to celebrate.	尼泊尔人民应该好好庆贺。


The first nationwide poll in nearly a decade passed off relatively well and was endorsed by Nepali officials as well as the hundreds of international election observers.	这次十年来首次全国性投票进展相对顺利，尼泊尔的官员和几百名国际选举观察员都认可了这一选举。


According to former US President Jimmy Carter, the election was the most “transformational” of the many polls he has observed around the world.	美国前总统卡特说，在他所观察的世界各地的许多选举中，这一选举最为具有“转型”性质。


The high voter turnout, coupled with the relatively peaceful manner in which the election took place, is a testament to the Nepali people’s desire to cement the peace process and contribute in determining the political future of the country.	民众投票踊跃加上选举相对平和，表明尼泊尔人民想要巩固和平进程并且为决定国家的政治前途做出贡献。


The Maoists, former rebels who until two years ago were waging a brutal “people’s” war, will soon lead the next government in Nepal.	毛派主义者在两年前还在发动残酷的“人民战争”，这些前反叛者马上就要领导尼泊尔的下一个政府。


The former rebels have received the maximum number of seats in the constituencies where counting is complete.	在记票完整的选区，这些原先的反叛人员获得了最大多数的议席。


Surprisingly, both local and international analysts had predicted them to finish third, behind the Nepali Congress (NC) and the United Marxist-Leninists (UML), the two largest parties that have been at the helm since multi-party democracy was restored in Nepal in 1990.	令人惊讶的是，当地和国际分析家都预计他们会获得第三，前两位是尼泊尔大会党以及联合马列主义者。 它们是自1990年多党民主制度在尼泊尔恢复以来一直稳居首位的政党。


While experts are busy trying to explain the Maoists’ unprecedented triumph, much hope rests on the newly elected members of the 601-seat Constituent Assembly.	当专家们忙着试图解释毛派主义者史无前例的胜利的时候，人民把希望寄托在了新近当选的有601个席位的议会成员上。


The Assembly’s first responsibility will be to draft a new constitution that can help reunify Nepal’s disparate communities.	议会的首要职责是起草一部能够帮助把四分五裂的尼泊尔重新联合起来的新宪法。


A second priority will be to decide the fate of Nepal’s centuries-old monarchy.	第二个优先工作是决定尼泊尔具有几百年历史的君主制度的命运。


The Maoists ran on an anti-royalist platform, and it is widely anticipated that the first meeting of the Assembly will abolish the monarchy and declare Nepal a “people’s republic.”	毛派的纲领是反对君主制度，而且人民广泛预期议会的第一次会议将会废除君主制度并且宣布尼泊尔为“人民共和国”。


But the king still has some support, though clearly far short of a majority.	国王尽管远远没有多数支持，但还是有一些。


Nepal has had a long history of monarchy, spanning close to two and a half centuries, and bringing an end to this tradition might prove to be more difficult than expected.	尼泊尔的君主制度历史悠久，大约持续两百五十年。 结束这一传统或许比预料得更为困难。


The Maoists’ willingness and ability to display a degree of sympathy and respect for their opponents will go a long way toward determining their success in office.	毛派能否以及是否愿意对他们的对手表现出某种程度的同情和尊敬将会在很大程度上决定其当政成功与否。


It would certainly behoove the Assembly to give serious and immediate consideration to the country’s deplorable socioeconomic conditions.	议会当然应该迅速认真得考虑国家糟糕的社会经济状况。


Nepal is one of the world’s poorest countries, ranking near the bottom even in the South Asian region.	尼泊尔是世界上最贫穷国家之一，甚至在南亚地区中也几乎垫底。


The incoming members of the Assembly therefore must address everyday issues – employment, healthcare, education, social justice, minority rights, security, etc.	议会新议员们因此必须处理国计民生问题，也就是就业、医疗、教育、社会公正、少数人权利以及安全问题等等。


Suffice it to say that there Nepal faces a multitude of flashpoints, as well as a large number of detractors who would like to see this historic process derailed.	可以说，尼泊尔面临一系列的热点问题，同时还有很多居心叵测的人希望这一历史进程搁浅。


The success or failure of the Constituent Assembly will rest on whether the presumptive winner, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists), will work collaboratively with the other parties rather than trying to push its own agenda exclusively.	议会的成功与否将会取决于胜利在手的毛派主义者也就是尼泊尔共产党与其他党派精诚合作，而不是试图单方面推动其纲领。


The main challenge for the Assembly is to forge onward, keeping in mind that the road ahead is full of seemingly insurmountable challenges.	议会的主要挑战就是继续向前，牢记前面的道路艰辛曲折，充满看似无法克服的挑战。


Nepal’s earlier experiments with democratic governance were not very successful; democratically elected governments (in the late 1950’s and the 1990’s) were unceremoniously replaced by prolonged autocratic rule.	尼泊尔早先试验进行民主制度都不成功。 五十年代和九十年代经过民主选举上台的政府被漫长的专制统治悄无声息地取而代之。


So, leaving responsibility solely to political leaders and policymakers this time would be a grave mistake.	所以，这一次把责任完全交给政治领导人以及决策者将会是一个严重错误。


Every Nepali has a role to play to ensure that the country’s dark political history does not repeat itself, and thus to help move the country in the right direction.	每个尼泊尔人都应该发挥作用确保国家黑暗的政治历史不再重演，并且让国家沿着正确的道路前进。


Voting for change has sent a clear message; making sure that Nepal’s leaders follow the will of the people is an altogether different challenge.	投变革一票发出了明确的信息。 确保尼泊尔领导人听从人民的意愿则是一个不同的挑战。


It is to be hoped that Nepal’s newly elected Maoists have the wisdom to listen to their newly empowered electorate.	人民希望尼泊尔新当选的毛派有智慧倾听刚刚获得权利的选民的声音。


The Full Value of Childhood Vaccines	儿童疫苗的完全价值


GENEVA – If you want to know the value of vaccines, just spend some time in a clinic in Africa.	日内瓦—如果你想知道疫苗的价值，去非洲诊所看一看就行了。


The faces of the mothers and fathers say it all: vaccines prevent illness and save lives.	那里父母亲的脸色说明了一切：疫苗防止病痛，拯救生命。


But what these parents probably do not realize is that the story does not end there.	但这些父母可能没有意识到的是，故事并不仅限于此。


As they leave the clinic and head home, they have already taken steps to improve not just their child’s health, but also his or her educational prospects and long-term future.	他们离开诊所回家时，他们不但改善了孩子的健康，自己也接受了健康教育，朝着美好的长期未来迈进了一步。


What’s more, they will have also helped to improve their own lives and enhance the economic prospects of their wider community.	此外，它们也有助于改善他们自己的生活，改善他们所在社区的经济前景。


The reasons are simple.	原因很简单。


We know that children who are healthier do not require medical treatment or care, both of which cost time and money.	我们知道，健康的儿童不需要医治和看护，这两者都需要耗时耗钱。


So, by avoiding illness, infants have a greater chance of growing into healthier children who are able to attend school and become more productive members of society.	因此，通过避免病痛，婴儿有更大的机会成长为健康儿童，能够去学校上学，成为生产率更高的社会成员。


Meanwhile, instead of caring for a sick child, parents can work, thereby increasing their ability to earn.	与此同时，父母不必照顾病儿，可以去工作，从而增强收入能力。


So, rather than spending money on medical bills, they are boosting their income and spending capacity, both of which help the economy to grow.	因此，他们不但不必把钱花在医疗账单上，还可以增加收入和支出能力，而这两点都有助于经济增长。


All of this intuitively makes sense, and there is a growing body of scientific evidence to back it up.	这一切都非常直观，而支持这一点的科学证据也在与日俱增。


It has been shown, for example, that vaccinated children not only do better at school, but also that, through the prevention of damage that can be caused by infectious diseases and resulting nutritional imbalances, they appear to benefit in terms of cognitive development.	比如，我们已经知道，接种儿童不但在学校表现更好，而且由于预防了可能由传染病及其所导致的营养不良所造成的伤害，这些儿童在认知发展方面也会获益良多。


Similarly, vaccination has been shown to lead to wage gains across populations, while improvements in child survival rates are associated with lower fertility rates.	类似地，有证据表明疫苗可以引起整个人口的工资增加，而儿童存活率与更低的生育率有关。


And, in terms of the wider gains, one study found that a five-year improvement in life expectancy can translate into a 0.5-percentage-point increase in annual per capita income growth.	此外，从更广的范围看，有一项研究发现，人均收入增长提高0. 5个百分点可以让期望寿命增加5年。


What all of this means is that by measuring the effectiveness of vaccines merely in terms of “lives saved,” we could be seriously underestimating the full extent of the benefits that they offer.	所有这些意味着，仅仅通过测量疫苗在“拯救生命”方面的效率，我们已经可能大大低估了疫苗所提供的完整��巨大益处。


As things stand, in terms of the cost effectiveness of health interventions, vaccines are already considered one of public policy’s “best buys.”	在健康干预的成本效率方面，疫苗已被认为是公共政策的“最佳支出”。


Indeed, it has been calculated that the work being done to expand vaccine coverage in developing countries by my organization, the GAVI Alliance, should yield an 18% return on investment by 2020.	事实上，据计算，到2020年，我的组织——GAVI联盟在扩大发展中国家疫苗覆盖方面的工作应该能够产生18%的投资回报。


But now, as more evidence is gathered, it looks likely that even this may not do justice to the full value of vaccines.	但随着更多证据的收集，现在看来这也不足以概括疫苗的完全价值。


Given the progress made in expanding vaccination programs in recent years, this revelation represents a unique opportunity for the global community, particularly as we begin to close the lid on polio.	最近几年，扩大疫苗项目进展迅速，这一信息代表了全球社会的独特机会，特别是在我们即将彻底消灭小儿麻痹症时。


With poliovirus now endemic in just three remaining countries, we are already beginning to use the momentum that has carried eradication efforts so far to broaden the scope of routine immunization to reach more of the poorest children.	目前，只有三个国家仍然还有脊髓灰质炎病毒传播，我们已经开始借助目前扩大常规免疫规模手段的东风让最贫困的孩子接触疫苗。


Now the same health systems and strong immunization services can act as a platform to help fight poverty, too.	如今，同样的卫生体系和强大的免疫服务也可以作为战胜贫穷的平台。


But, with current estimates indicating that, by 2030, only half the world’s children will be fully immunized with the 11 vaccines recommended globally by the World Health Organization, we clearly still have some way to go.	但是，最新估算表明，到2030年，全世界只有一半儿童能够全部接种11种世界卫生组织在全球推荐的疫苗，我们还有很长的路要走。


For our part, we are helping to change that.	对我们来说，我们正在帮助改变现状。


Since it was formed in 2000, GAVI has already helped to immunize more than 370 million children against a range of deadly diseases.	自2000年成立以来，GAVI已帮助3. 7亿多儿童免疫了一系列致命疾病。


As a result, we have prevented 5.5 million deaths, and we aim to immunize a further 245 million children and save five million more lives by 2015.	结果是我们防止了550万人死亡，我们的目标是在2015年再免疫2. 45亿儿童，再拯救500万生命。


At the same time, we now know that the value of vaccines extends far beyond the number of lives saved.	与此同时，现在我们知道，疫苗的价值远远不止于拯救生命的数字。


Investment in vaccines is not about short-term savings, either in terms of lives or economic costs; it is about providing children with lifetime protection and the ability to realize their full potential.	疫苗投资并不是为了短期的拯救生命或节约经济成本； 而是为了给儿童提供一生的保护和实现完全潜力的能力。


So, while reducing mortality is already reason enough to want to immunize every child on the planet, now we have the added motivation that we are not just saving lives, but also helping to improve many more lives in the process.	因此，尽管降低死亡率以足以作为给地球上每一位儿童实施免疫的理由，但如今我们又有了新的动机——我们不仅能拯救生命，也能帮助改善无数人的生活。


The Looming Crisis with Iran	迫在眉睫的伊朗危机


NEW YORK – When Barack Obama takes office in January, he will be greeted by many difficult challenges, beginning with the acute economic crisis.	纽约—当奥巴马在一月份入主白宫时，他将面临许多困难的挑战，首先就是严重的经济危机。


But he will not have the luxury of focusing on this exclusively. He will also have to contend with an array of foreign policy challenges.	但是这并不是他所要面临的挑战的全部，他还将面临一系列的外交政策挑战。


Of these, Iran and its nuclear program may well constitute the Obama administration’s first foreign policy crisis.	在这其中，伊朗及其核计划或许将成为奥巴马政府所面临的第一个外交政策危机。


The reason is simple. Iran is well down the path to being able to enrich uranium on a large enough scale to produce a nuclear weapon.	原因很简单，伊朗在浓缩铀的能力上已经越走越远，现在已经接近于能够制造出核武器。


The International Atomic Energy Agency just reported that Iran may well reach this point in 2009.	国际原子能机构刚刚报告说伊朗将在2009年拥有这一能力。


An Iran with a nuclear weapon or the ability to produce one or more bombs in short order poses a true danger.	在不远的将来拥有核武器或者能够制造一颗甚至更多核弹的伊朗将会带来真正的危险。


Still, one path for the new American administration would be to adopt the “North Korea” option and live with the threat.	当然，新的美国政府可以寻求的一条途径是采用朝鲜方式，选择与威胁共存。


The risk is that doing so would make an already unstable and conflict-prone Middle East even more so.	其危险在于这样会使中东变得更加不稳定和容易引发冲突。


In a crisis, Israel or Iran could be tempted to use nuclear weapons out of fear that the other would if they did not.	在危机中，以色列或者伊朗可以会因为担心如果它不使用另一方可能会使用核武器而动用核武器。


There is also the chance that other countries such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia would develop or acquire nuclear weapons of their own.ampnbsp; The United States could take steps to reduce these risks, including providing missile defense and security guarantees to selective countries, but it is far from clear that such efforts would succeed.ampnbsp;	其他一些国家，比如埃及或者沙特，也可能因此开发或者获得它们自己的核武器。 美国可以采取措施降低这些风险，包括向有选择的国家提供导弹防御和安全保证，但是这些努力是否能成功目前还不清楚。


Moreover, further nuclear proliferation is not the only danger if Iran proceeds with its nuclear efforts.	此外，如果伊朗继续实施它的核计划，它所带来的危险将不仅仅是更大规模的核武器扩散。


What Iran does directly and through such groups as Hezbollah and Hamas has and will continue to have a major and mostly adverse impact on the future of Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Palestine.	伊朗直接或通过真主党和哈马斯等组织曾经并将继续实施的行动对于伊拉克、阿富汗、黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦的未来将产生重要并且大部分是负面的影响。


Iran is already one of the Middle East’s most powerful countries.	伊朗已经成为中东最强大的国家之一。


A nuclear Iran would likely act more aggressively throughout the region in the belief that its nuclear capability afforded it considerable protection.	一个拥有核武器的伊朗很可能在整个地区表现得更加咄咄逼人，因为它相信它的核能力可以提供给它足够的保护。


A second policy option would be for the US, Israel, or both to attack Iran’s known nuclear installations.	另一个政策选择是美国、以色列或者两国共同对伊朗已知的核装置实施打击。


Such a preemptive attack would certainly destroy some or even most of Iran’s existing nuclear facilities and materials.	这种前摄性的打击当然可以摧毁伊朗现有的部分甚至绝大部分核设施和材料。


But some capability would likely survive, and the nuclear program could be rebuilt over several years in a manner that would make a second attack much more difficult.	但是它的某些核能力会被保留下来，而它的核计划会在未来数年以一种使二次打击变得更加困难的方式得以重建。


There would also be serious consequences long before then.	在此之前可能还会产生其他严重的后果。


It is highly unlikely that Iran would simply absorb a US or Israeli military strike.	伊朗不太可能对于美国或以色列的军事打击无动于衷。


Instead, it could be expected to retaliate by attacking US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, unleashing terrorist attacks throughout the region and the world, and interrupting the flow of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.	相反，它很有可能会通过袭击美国在阿富汗和伊拉克的部队、对地区和全世界实施恐怖袭击以及中断霍尔姆兹海峡的油轮运输等方式来进行报复。


The last thing the world economy needs is a $200 barrel of oil, but this could be the result.	世界经济最不希望看到的事情就是油价涨到200美元一桶，这样的结果很有可能会发生。


What is certain is that both options – living with a nuclear Iran or attacking it – involve serious risks and costs.	我们可以肯定的是这两种方案不管是与拥有核武器的伊朗共存还是对它实施打击都将面临巨大的风险及付出沉重的代价。


The best outcome would be one in which Iran was persuaded to freeze or suspend its nuclear efforts or, better yet, give up an independent capability to enrich uranium.	最好的结果是伊朗被劝说冻结或者搁置核计划，或者放弃独立浓缩铀的能力。


It is conceivable that Iran could be allowed a symbolic “right” to enrich, but any enrichment program would have to be extremely small so as not to pose a strategic threat.	可以想象的是伊朗将被允许拥有浓缩铀的象征性“权利”，但是任何铀浓缩计划都必须是极其小因而不会构成战略性威胁的。


It would also need to be subject to highly intrusive inspections, so that the world could be confident that Iran was not secretly enriching uranium and developing nuclear weapons.	它还需要接受突击性的核查，以便让世界相信伊朗没有秘密地浓缩铀以及开发核武器。


What would it take to essentially eliminate Iran’s uranium enrichment effort?	怎样才能从根本上使伊朗放弃它的铀浓缩计划呢？


To begin with, it would entail putting together a diplomatic package that offered Iran access to nuclear energy but not physical control over nuclear materials.	首先，必须采取一整套外交努力使伊朗能够获取核能但是却不能实际控制核材料。


Economic sanctions that are hurting Iran’s troubled economy could be eased.	损害了伊朗已经陷入困境的经济的制裁可以被放松。


Security assurances could be provided to Iran and normal diplomatic relations between Iran and the US and others could be established.	可以向伊朗提供安全保障，同时使伊朗与美国及其他国家建立正常的外交关系。


There is no guarantee that Iran would accept such an offer.	我们不能保证伊朗是否会接受这一提议。


But it might, especially now that the price of oil has fallen below $50 a barrel, a level that leaves Iran’s inefficient economy in worse shape than ever.	但是它有可能会接受，尤其是考虑现在油价已经跌到50美元一桶以下，这让伊朗低效的经济变得更加糟糕。


What would also help would be to make clear that Iran would face additional sanctions, including constraints on its ability to import refined petroleum, if it refused to accept a fair and reasonable compromise.	另外还应该表明如果伊朗拒绝接受公正和合理的妥协，它将面临额外的制裁，包括限制其进口精炼石油的能力。


Convincing Russia and China to support a package of requirements, incentives, and penalties would be important.	动员俄罗斯和中国支持包括要求、鼓励和惩罚在内的一系列方案也相当重要。


In addition, the odds Iran would accept such an offer might increase if the details were made public.	此外，把提议的细节公之于众也会增加伊朗最终接受这一提议的可能性。


The Iranian people may well choose leaders in their June 2009 elections who can deliver a much higher standard of living over those who would run the country into the ground.	伊朗人在将于2009年6月举行的大选中当然会更愿意选择能改善他们的生活而不是使国家陷入困境的人来当他们的领导人。


But it is possible that Iran will reject any diplomatic compromise, even one put forward directly by the US.	但是伊朗也有可能会拒绝任何外交妥协，甚至是由美国直接提出的方案。


Obama and the world would then have to choose between tolerating an Iran with nuclear weapons (or the ability to produce them quickly) and using military force to prevent this outcome.	如果是这样的话，奥巴马和世界将不得不在容忍伊朗拥有核武器（或者在短时间内生产它们的能力）以及动用武力来避免这一结果之间作出选择。


It is the worst sort of choice, as neither option is attractive.	这将是最糟糕的选择，因为任何一种方案都没有吸引力。


For that reason, it is all the more important that diplomacy be recast and given one last chance.	因此，我们必须调整外交政策以进行最后的努力。


The Lost Wealth of Nations	损失的国家财富


The phrase “sustainable development” is commonplace, but economic commentators offer no guidance on how we are to judge whether a nation’s economic development is, indeed, sustainable.	“可持续发展”一词已是尽人皆知，但经济评论家们并没有指导我们如何判断一个国家的经济发展是否真的具有可持续性。


The famous Brundtland Commission Report of 1987 defined sustainable development as “... development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”	在著名的1987年布伦特兰委员会（Brundtland Commission）报告中，可持续发展被定义为“……可满足现实需求而又不牺牲未来世代满足其自身需求的能力的发展方式。


Sustainable development therefore requires that, relative to their populations, each generation should bequeath to its successor at least as large a productive base as it inherited.	”因此，可持续发展要求我们每一代人都应该留给我们的子孙后代一个与我们的人口相适应的，至少和我们在继承时具有一样规模的生产力基础。


But how is a generation to judge whether it is leaving behind an adequate productive base?	但一代人如何判断它们所遗留下来的是一份足够的生产力基础呢？


Economists argue that the correct measure of an economy’s productive base is wealth, which includes not only the value of manufactured assets (buildings, machinery, roads), but also “human” capital (knowledge, skills, and health), natural capital (ecosystems, minerals, and fossil fuels), and institutions (government, civil society, the rule of law).	经济学家们认为衡量一个经济体生产力基础的正确标准是财富。 它不仅包括制造出的资产价值（建筑、机械、道路），还包括“人力”资本（知识、技能和健康），自然资本（生态系统、矿藏和化石燃料）以及制度（政府、公民社会和法制）。


Development is sustainable so long as an economy’s wealth relative to its population is maintained over time.	只要一个经济体能够一直维持与其人口相适应的财富水平，则其发展就是可持续的。


In other words, economic growth should be viewed as growth in wealth, not growth in GNP.	换言之，经济增长应该被看作是财富的，而非GNP的增长。


There is a big difference between the two.	这两者之间有很大的不同。


There are many circumstances in which a nation’s GNP (per capita) increases even while its wealth (per capita) declines.	在许多情况下，一个国家的GNP（人均）即使在财富（人均）减少的情况下也会增加。


In broad terms, these circumstances involve growing markets in certain classes of goods and services (natural-resource intensive products), concomitant with absent markets and collective policies for natural capital (ecosystem services).	从广义上讲，这些情况包括某些门类商品和服务（自然资源密集型产品）的增长型市场伴随着相关的市场政策和对自然资本（生态系统服务）的收帐政策的缺失。


As global environmental problems frequently create additional stresses on the local resource bases of the world’s poorest people, GNP growth in rich countries can fuel downward pressure on the wealth of the poor.	随着全球环境问题频繁地给世界穷国的本地资源基础造成额外的压力，富国的GNP增长也可能会对穷国的财富造成更大的压力。


Of course, a situation where GNP increases while wealth declines can’t last forever.	当然，GNP增长伴随着财富减少的情况不可能永远持续。


When an economy eats into its productive base in order to raise current production, eventually GNP will decline, too, unless policies were to so change that wealth begins to accumulate.	当一个经济体为了提高现有生产力而开始消耗其生产力基础时，其GNP最终也会下降。 除非它改变政策以开始积累财富。


For example, using World Bank data on the depreciation of a number of natural resources at the national level, economists estimate that, although GNP per capita has increased in the Indian sub-continent over the past three decades, wealth per capita has declined somewhat.	例如，采用世界银行对国家层面上的几种自然资源的贬值数据，经济学家们估算虽然印度次大陆的人均GNP在过去30年里有所上升，但其人均财富水平却有所下降。


The decline has occurred because, relative to population growth, fixed-capital investment, knowledge and skills, and improvements in institutions have not compensated for the degradation of natural capital.	其原因是与人口增长相应的固定资本投资、知识和技能以及制度的进步没有能够补偿自然资本的衰退。


In sub-Saharan Africa, both GNP per capita and wealth per capita have declined.	在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，人均GNP和人均财富双双降低。


Economists have also found that in the world’s poorest regions (Africa and the Indian sub-continent), areas that have experienced higher population growth have also lost wealth per capita at a faster rate.	经济学家们还发现在世界最贫穷的地区（非洲和印度次大陆），人口增长率较高的地区，人均财富减少的速度也更快。


The economies of China and the OECD countries, by contrast, have grown both in terms of GNP per capita and wealth per capita.	相比之下，中国和经济合作发展组织（OECD）国家却实现了人均GNP和人均财富的同步增长。


The latter regions have more than substituted for the decline in natural capital by accumulating other capital assets.	后者通过积累其它的资本资产还超额补偿了自然资本的下降。


In other words, during the past three decades the rich world seems to have enjoyed “sustainable development,” while development in the poor world (barring China) has been unsustainable.	换言之，在过去的30年里，富国似乎已经实现了“可持续发展”，而穷国（除中国外）的经济发展却是不可持续的。


These are early days in the quantitative study of sustainable development.	我们尚处在对可持续发展量化研究的早期。


Even so, one can argue that current estimates of wealth are biased.	即便如此，有人也可以驳斥说目前对财富的估测失之偏颇。


As for natural capital, the World Bank has so far limited itself to the atmosphere as a sink for carbon dioxide, oil, and natural gas, and forests as sources of timber.	就自然资本而言，世界银行直到目前为止还将其限定为吸纳二氧化碳的大气、石油、天然气和提供木材的森林。


Many types of natural capital, however, have not been included: fresh water, soil, forests as providers of ecosystem services, and the atmosphere as a sink for such pollution as particulates and nitrogen and sulphur oxides.	然而，还有许多其它的自然资本未被包含在其中：淡水、土壤、提供生态服务的森林和吸纳微粒、氮氧化物和硫氧化物等污染物的大气。


If these missing items were included, the poor world’s economic performance over the past three decades, including China’s, would look far worse.	如果这些缺失的项目被纳入评估，则包括中国在内的穷国在过去30年里的经济表现会显得糟糕许多。


But the estimates of wealth accumulation in recent years in the rich world are biased upward too.	但对富国在近些年的财富积累的估算同样有失公允。


Empirical studies by earth scientists have revealed all too often that the capacity of natural systems to absorb disturbances is not unlimited.	地球科学家们的经验性研究不止一次地表明自然系统吸纳干扰物质的容量是有限的。


When their absorptive capacities are reached, natural systems are liable to collapse into unproductive states.	当吸纳能力达到饱和状态时，自然系统必定会崩溃从而导致一种非生产性状态。


Recovery is then costly, in terms of both time and material resources.	复原所需的时间和物质资源成本都是高昂的。


On the other hand, if, say, the Atlantic current that keeps northern Europe warm were to shift direction or to slow down on account of global warming, the change would be essentially irreversible.	而在另一方面，如果使北部欧洲保持温暖的大西洋暖流由于全球变暖而改变流向或流速减缓，则这一变化将不可逆转。


In short, we know that up to some unknown set of limits, knowledge, institutions, and manufactured capital can substitute for natural resources, so that even if an economy loses some of its natural capital, in quantity or quality, its wealth would increase if it invested sufficiently in other assets.	简而言之，我们知道在某些未知的限度内，以及一定的知识和制度条件下，制造型的资本可以替代自然资源。 所以即便一个经济体在质与量上损失了一些自然资本，如果对其它的资产有足够的投入，其财富还是会增加。


The remarkable increase in agricultural productivity over the past two centuries demonstrates this clearly.	农业生产力在过去两个世纪的显著增长清楚地证明了这一点。


But there are limits to substitutability: the costs of substitution (including human ingenuity) often increase in previously unknown ways as key resources are degraded.	但替代性是有限的：替代的成本（包括人类的创造性）总是在关键资源衰退之前就悄然提高了。


Global warming is a case in point.	全球变暖正好切中这一点。


When the downside risks associated with such limits and thresholds are brought into estimates of sustainable development, the growth in wealth among the world’s wealthy nations will probably turn out to have been less than we now think.	当我们在估算可持续发展水平时计入与这些极限相关的消极风险，则世界富国财富增长的结果可能并不如我们想象中那样好。


The Lucifer Effect	路西法效应


Why do good, ordinary people sometimes become perpetrators of evil?	为什么善良的普通人有时会变成作恶者？


The most extreme transformation of this kind is, of course, the story of God’s favorite angel, Lucifer – a story that has set the context for my psychological investigations into lesser human transformations in response to the corrosive influence of powerful situational forces.	这种转变的最极端例子当然就是上帝做宠爱的天使路西法的故事。 这个故事正是我对在强大的情境力量所造成的侵蚀性的影响下使人们向坏的方面发生的一些转变所进行的心理研究的背景所在。


Such forces exist in many common behavioral contexts, distorting our usual good nature by pushing us to engage in deviant, destructive, or evil behavior.	这种力量存在于一些寻常的行为背景中，它们把我们推向不正常的、破坏性的或者邪恶的行为从而扭曲了我们平常的善良本性。


When embedded in new and unfamiliar settings, our habitual ways of thinking, feeling, and acting no longer function to sustain the moral compass that has guided us reliably in the past.	当我们身处于一个新的和陌生的环境时，我们思维、感觉和行为的方式不再受到过去一直可靠地指导我们的道德指针的指引。


Over the past three decades, my research and that of my colleagues has demonstrated the relative ease with which ordinary people can be led to behave in ways that qualify as evil.	过去三十年里，我和我的同事所进行的研究表明了普通的人群会被相对自然地引导向被大家认为是邪恶的行为方式。


We have put research participants in experiments where powerful situational forces – anonymity, group pressures, or diffusion of personal responsibility – led them blindly to obey authority and to aggress against innocent others after dehumanizing them.	我们让参加研究的人接受实验，在实验中强大的情境力量，也就是匿名、群体压力或个人责任的传播会使他们盲目地听从当权者的指令，在丧失人性后会恶毒地攻击无辜的人。


My recent book  The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil describes the radical transformations that took place among college students playing randomly assigned roles of prisoners and guards in a mock prison created at Stanford University.	我最近写的一本书，《路西法效应：理解好人怎样变成坏人》，描述了我们在斯坦福大学设立了一个模拟监狱，然后随机地让大学生扮演囚犯和守卫，从而在他们身上发生的一些根本的转变。


It goes on to establish direct parallels with the abuses committed by American soldiers at Iraq’s Abu Ghraib prison, presenting much of the social science research illustrating the power of social situations to dominate individual dispositions.	这与美国士兵在伊拉克阿布格莱德监狱发生的虐囚行为如出一辙，表明社会学研究描述社会环境主宰了个体性格的说法很大程度上是正确的。


This body of work challenges the traditional focus on the individual’s inner nature, dispositions, and personality traits as the primary – and often the sole – factors in understanding human failings.	这项研究的主体对传统上把个体的本质、性格和个性特征作为理解人类弱点的主要并且通常是唯一因素的观点提出了挑战。


Instead, I argue that while most people are good most of the time, they can readily be led to act anti-socially, because most people are rarely solitary figures improvising soliloquies on the empty stage of life.	相反，我认为尽管大多数人在大多数时候是好的，他们却随时会表现出反社会的行为，因为大多数人并不是在空荡的人生舞台上表演独角戏的孤独的个体。


On the contrary, people are often in an ensemble of different players, on a stage with various props, costumes, scripts, and stage directions from producers and directors.	恰恰相反，人们通常会是不同角色的综合体，站在舞台上，带着各种道具、服饰、剧本并且接受着来自舞台监督和导演的舞台指导。


Together, they comprise situational features that can dramatically influence behavior.	他们一起组成了可以戏剧性地影响行为的情境特征。