The lack of a countervailing ground force in northern China makes it vulnerable to a possible coup by Shenyang, which has already taken advantage of its influence on the North Korean regime to put pressure on China’s leaders.	在北方没有用于制衡的地面部队意味着中国很容易受到沈阳军事政变的威胁，而沈阳也在利用其对朝鲜政权的影响对中国领导层施压。


This has led to speculation that Chang’s execution was retaliation, endorsed by Shenyang, for Bo’s arrest and the ongoing purge of his supporters, including, most recently, Zhou Yongkang, the powerful former chief of internal security.	这就引起了一种猜测：处决张成泽是对薄熙来被捕以及至今仍在进行的清洗其支持者（最近的目标是前���安力量主管周永康）行动的报复。


In other words, what appeared to be a form of political-military brinkmanship by Kim may actually be a manifestation of Shenyang’s reaction to Xi’s struggle to reassert Party authority over Bo’s faction and its supporters in the military.	换句话说，金正恩的政治-军事擦边球实际上是沈阳对习近平重新将党的权威凌驾于薄熙来派系及其军中支持者之上的斗争的宣战书。


Thus, China’s ability to bring North Korea into line – a capacity that the US, in particular, believes Xi has – may in fact depend on the outcome of a more epochal struggle to bring the PLA fully under central authority.	因此，中国让朝鲜就范的能力——特别是美国相信习近平有此能力——实际上取决于让解放军完全听命于中央的意义更加重大的斗争。


Twenty-five years after the military rescued the Party by crushing pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square, Xi’s potential strategy for doing so – a purge of high-level military figures – may incite a major internal fight.	二十五年前，军队镇压了天安门广场民主示威者，挽救了中共。 如今，习近平的清洗军队高层的战略可能引发剧烈的内斗。


How Humans Cause Mass Extinctions	人类如何引起大灭绝


STANFORD – There is no doubt that Earth is undergoing the sixth mass extinction in its history – the first since the cataclysm that wiped out the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago.	斯坦福—毫无疑问，地球正在经历历史上第六次大灭绝——也是大约6,500万年前恐龙灭绝巨灾以来的首次。


According to one recent study, species are going extinct between ten and several thousand times faster than they did during stable periods in the planet’s history, and populations within species are vanishing hundreds or thousands of times faster than that.	根据一份最新报告，如今物种灭绝速度比地球历史上的稳定时期快十到数千倍，各物种数量的减少速度又比物种灭绝速度快数十万倍。


By one estimate, Earth has lost half of its wildlife during the past 40 years. There is also no doubt about the cause: We are it.	一项估算表明，在过去40年里，地球失去了一半的野生动植物，原因毫无疑问是人类。


We are in the process of killing off our only known companions in the universe, many of them beautiful and all of them intricate and interesting.	我们正在杀死宇宙中已知仅存的伙伴，很多十分美丽，并且每一种都复杂而有趣。


This is a tragedy, even for those who may not care about the loss of wildlife.	这是一场悲剧，即使是对那些不关心野生生物死活的人来说也是如此。


The species that are so rapidly disappearing provide human beings with indispensable ecosystem services: regulating the climate, maintaining soil fertility, pollinating crops and defending them from pests, filtering fresh water, and supplying food.	正在迅速消失的物种为我们人类提供不可或缺的生态系统功能：控制气候、维持土壤肥沃、给庄稼授粉并抵御病虫害、过滤清洁水、提供粮食，等等。


The cause of this great acceleration in the loss of the planet’s biodiversity is clear: rapidly expanding human activity, driven by worsening overpopulation and increasing per capita consumption.	地球生物多样性损失大提速的原因十分清楚：人类活动的快速扩张，其背后是日益严重的人口过剩和日益增加的人均消费。


We are destroying habitats to make way for farms, pastures, roads, and cities.	我们破坏栖息地建设农场、牧场、公路和城市。


Our pollution is disrupting the climate and poisoning the land, water, and air.	我们的污染干扰气候、毒害土地、水和空气。


We are transporting invasive organisms around the globe and overharvesting commercially or nutritionally valuable plants and animals.	我们在全球散播将外来入侵生物，过度利用商业或营养价值高的动植物。


The more people there are, the more of Earth’s productive resources must be mobilized to support them.	人的数量越多，必须动员起来支持人口的地球生产性资源也越多。


More people means more wild land must be put under the plow or converted to urban infrastructure to support sprawling cities like Manila, Chengdu, New Delhi, and San Jose.	更多的人口意味着更多的荒地必须开垦，或转变为基础设施，以支持马尼拉、成都、新德里和圣何塞等新兴城市。


More people means greater demand for fossil fuels, which means more greenhouse gases flowing into the atmosphere, perhaps the single greatest extinction threat of all.	更多的人口意味着更大的化石燃料需求，这意味着更多得温室气体排入大气——这也许是最大的物种灭绝威胁。


Meanwhile, more of Canada needs to be destroyed to extract low-grade petroleum from oil sands and more of the United States needs to be fracked.	与此同时，为了从油砂中提炼低等级石油，更多的加拿大需要被毁掉，而更多的美国也会因为液压致裂法炼油而被毁掉。


More people also means the production of more computers and more mobile phones, along with more mining operations for the rare earths needed to make them.	更多人口还意味着电脑和手机产量的增加，以及更大规模地开采制造这些东西所需要的稀土。


It means more pesticides, detergents, antibiotics, glues, lubricants, preservatives, and plastics, many of which contain compounds that mimic mammalian hormones.	这意味着更多的杀虫剂、洗涤剂、抗生素、胶水、润滑油、防腐剂和塑料，其中有许多包含类似于哺乳动物激素的化合物。


Indeed, it means more microscopic plastic particles in the biosphere – particles that may be toxic or accumulate toxins on their surfaces. As a result, all living things – us included – have been plunged into a sickening poisonous stew, with organisms that are unable to adapt pushed further toward extinction.	事实上，这意味着更多的塑料微粒子存在于生物圈中——这些粒子可能有毒，或在表面积累毒素���结果，所有生物——也包括我们——已经被拖入了一个有毒的大熔炉，无法适应的生物进一步走向灭绝深渊。


With each new person, the problem gets worse.	每多一个人，问题就严重一分。


Since human beings are intelligent, they tend to use the most accessible resources first.	自人类成为智能生物以来，总是首先使用获取最便利的资源。


They settle the richest, most productive land, drink the nearest, cleanest water, and tap the easiest-to-reach energy sources.	人类定居在最肥沃、产量最高的土地，饮用最近、最清洁的水，并利用最容易得到的能源资源。


And so as new people arrive, food is produced on less fertile, more fragile land.	而当新人类到来时，粮食就得在较不肥沃、更加脆弱的土地上生产。


Water is transported further or purified.	水必须从远处运来或进行净化。


Energy is produced from more marginal sources.	能源必须从更加边缘的资源提炼。


In short, each new person joining the global population disproportionately adds more stress to the planet and its systems, causing more environmental damage and driving more species to extinction than members of earlier generations.	简言之，每一个加入全球人口的新人类都会不成比例地给地球和地球系统带来新的压力，导致更大的环境伤害，比祖先造成更多物种的灭绝。


To see this phenomenon at work, consider the oil industry.	要想了解这一现象，可以以石油业为例。


When the first well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859, it penetrated less than 70 feet into the soil before hitting oil.	1859年宾夕法尼亚州打下第一口油井，只往地下钻了不到70英尺就实现了喷油。


By comparison, the well drilled by Deepwater Horizon, which famously blew up in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, began a mile beneath the water’s surface and drilled a few miles into the rock before finding oil.	由深水地平线（Deepwater Horizon）钻井、2010年在墨西哥湾爆炸的油井，起点在水面下一英里处，钻透数英里的岩石才找到了石油。


This required a huge amount of energy, and when the well blew, it was far harder to contain, causing large-scale, ongoing damage to the biodiversity of the Gulf and the adjacent shorelines, as well as to numerous local economies.	这需要大量能源，而当这口油井爆炸时，治理的难度也大大增加，导致墨西哥湾和附近海岸线生物多样性被持续大规模地破坏，并影响到无数地方经济。


The situation can be summarized simply.	可以简单地总结一下局面。


The world’s expanding human population is in competition with the populations of most other animals (exceptions include rats, cattle, cats, dogs, and cockroaches).	不断扩张的世界人口与大部分其他动物数量竞争（老鼠、牲畜、猫、狗和蟑螂等动物例外）。


Through the expansion of agriculture, we are now appropriating roughly half of the energy from the sun used to produce food for all animals – and our needs are only growing.	我们通过农业的扩张占用了来自太阳、用于为所有动物生产食物的能量的一半——而我们的需求还在不断增加。


With the world’s most dominant animal – us – taking half the cake, it is little wonder that the millions of species left fighting over the other half have begun to disappear rapidly.	作为世界主宰动物的我们切走了一半的蛋糕，毫不奇怪数百万个为剩下的一半而斗争的物种开始迅速消失。


This is not just a moral tragedy; it is an existential threat.	这不仅是一个道德悲剧，也是一个生存威胁。


Mass extinctions will deprive us of many of the ecosystem services on which our civilization depends.	大灭绝将让我们失去大量人类文明赖以生存的生态系统功能。


Our population bomb has already claimed its first casualties.	我们的人口炸弹已经造成了第一批受害者。


They will not be the last.	它们绝不是最后一批。


Economists versus the Economy	经济学家与经济


LONDON – Let’s be honest: no one knows what is happening in the world economy today.	伦敦—实事求是地讲，没人知道当今世界经济正在发生什么。


Recovery from the collapse of 2008 has been unexpectedly slow.	2008年大崩盘的恢复慢得出人意料。


Are we on the road to full health or mired in “secular stagnation”?	我们正走在完全恢复的路上，还是陷入了“长期停滞”？


Is globalization coming or going?	全球化正在到来还是在远去？


Policymakers don’t know what to do.	决策者不知道怎么办。


They press the usual (and unusual) levers and nothing happens.	他们拿出常用（和不常用）的手段，但什么也没发生。


Quantitative easing was supposed to bring inflation “back to target.”	量化宽松理应让通胀“回到目标”。


It didn’t.	并没有。


Fiscal contraction was supposed to restore confidence.	财政收缩理应重塑信心。


Earlier this month, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, delivered a speech called “The Specter of Monetarism.”	本月早些时候，英格兰银行行长马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）发表了题为《货币主义的幽灵》（The Specter of Monetarism）的讲话。


Of course, monetarism was supposed to save us from the specter of Keynesianism!	当然，货币主义本应把我们救出凯恩斯主义幽灵之手！


With virtually no usable macroeconomic tools, the default position is “structural reform.”	在几乎没有可用的宏观经济工具的情况下，默认的选项是“结构性改革”。


But no one agrees on what it entails.	但对于结构性改革的细节又是众说纷纭。


Meanwhile, crackpot leaders are stirring discontented voters.	与此同时，别有用心的领导人正在煽动不满的选民。


Economies, it seems, have escaped from the grasp of those supposed to manage them, with politics in hot pursuit.	经济似乎逃脱了原本的管理者的掌心，让政治陷入了热力追踪之中。


Before 2008, the experts thought they had things under control.	2008年前，专家认为万事皆在掌握中。


Yes, there was a bubble in the housing market, but it was no worse, current Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in 2005, than a “good-sized bump in the road.”	是的，房地产市场有泡沫，但用现任美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦在2005年的话说，这并不比“路中央有一个大坑”更坏。


So why did they miss the storm?	那么，为什么他们没有看到风暴？


This was exactly the question Queen Elizabeth of Britain asked a group of economists in 2008.	这就是英国女王伊丽莎白2008年对一群经济学家的问题。


Most of them wrung their hands.	他们大部分人抓耳挠腮。


It was “a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people,” they explained.	这是“许多聪明人集体想象的失灵，”他们解释说。


But some economists supported a dissenting – and much more damning – verdict, one that focused on the failure of economics education.	但一些经济学家支持异端——也更可怕——的解释，这个解释直指经济学教育的失败。


Most economics students are not required to study psychology, philosophy, history, or politics.	大部分经济学学生不要求学习心理学、哲学、历史学和政治学。


They are spoon-fed models of the economy, based on unreal assumptions, and tested on their competence in solving mathematical equations.	他们学习精美的经济模型，基于不现实的假设，考的是他们解数学方程式的能力。


They are never given the mental tools to grasp the whole picture.	他们从未学到抓住大局的思想工具。


This takes us back to John Stuart Mill, the great nineteenth-century economist and philosopher, who believed that nobody can be a good economist if he or she is just an economist.	这让我们回到十九世纪经济学和哲学大师约翰·穆勒，他相信，如果一个人仅仅是一位经济学家，他就不可能是好经济学家。


To be sure, most academic disciplines have become highly specialized since Mill’s day; and, since the collapse of theology, no field of study has aimed to understand the human condition as a whole.	诚然，自穆勒时代以来，大部分学科变得高度专业化； 而自神学崩溃以来，再无以理解全体人类条件为目标的研究领域。


But no branch of human inquiry has cut itself off from the whole – and from the other social sciences – more than economics.	但没有哪个人类研究分支像经济学那样将自己与人类整体条件——和其他社会科学——割裂开来。


This is not because of its subject matter.	这不是因为经济学的主题。


On the contrary, the business of earning a living still fills the greater part of our lives and thoughts.	相反，“讨生活”仍然是我们的生活和思想的至关重要的部分。


Economics – how markets works, why they sometimes break down, how to estimate the costs of a project properly – ought to be of interest to most people.	经济学——市场如何运作，为何有时会崩溃，如何合理估算项目的成本——应该符合大部分人的利益。


In fact, the field repels all but connoisseurs of fanciful formal models.	事实上，经济学反对一切奇形怪状的形式化模型的行家。


This is not because economics prizes logical argument, which is an essential check on faulty reasoning.	这不是因为经济学注重逻辑推理。 逻辑推理是对有缺陷的理性的重要检查。


The real trouble is that it is cut off from the common understanding of how things work, or should work.	真正的问题是它与关于事物如何运行或应该如何运行的一般理解割裂。


Economists claim to make precise what is vague, and are convinced that economics is superior to all other disciplines, because the objectivity of money enables it to measure historical forces exactly, rather than approximately.	经济学家宣称要让模糊的东西精确化，并信心满满地认为经济学超然于所有其他学科之上，因为钱的客观性让经济学能够精确而不是模糊地测量历史力量。


Not surprisingly, economists’ favored image of the economy is that of a machine.	毫不奇怪，经济学家所中意的经济是一部机器的形象。


The renowned American economist Irving Fisher actually built an elaborate hydraulic machine with pumps and levers, allowing him to demonstrate visually how equilibrium prices in the market adjust in response to changes in supply or demand.	著名美国经济学家欧文·费雪（Irving Fisher）真的构建了一部带有泵和杠杆的精致的液压机，让他能够直观演示市场均衡价格如何应供需变化而动。


If you believe that economies are like machines, you are likely to view economic problems as essentially mathematical problems.	如果你认为经济学就像机器一样，那么你就有可能将经济问题视为本质上是数学问题。


The efficient state of the economy, general equilibrium, is a solution to a system of simultaneous equations.	经济的有效状态——一般均衡无非是一组联立方程的解。


Deviations from equilibrium are “frictions,” mere “bumps in the road”; barring them, outcomes are pre-determined and optimal.	偏离均衡属于“摩擦”，只不过是“路上的坑”； 规避掉就能产生预设和优化的结果。


Unfortunately, the frictions that disrupt the machine’s smooth operation are human beings.	不幸的是，干扰这台机器的平顺运转的摩擦正是人类。


One can understand why economists trained in this way were seduced by financial models that implied that banks had virtually eliminated risk.	你可以理解为何以这种方式训练出来的经济学家会沉迷于认为银行已经基本消除了风险的金融模型。


Good economists have always understood that this method has severe limitations.	好经济学家永远明白，这一方法存在严重的局限性。


They use their discipline as a kind of mental hygiene to protect against the grossest errors in thinking.	他们将经济学用作一种思想消毒剂，杜绝思维中的严重错误。


John Maynard Keynes warned his students against trying to “precise everything away.”	约翰·凯恩斯警告他的学生不要“精确一切”。


There is no formal model in his great book The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.	他的名著《就业、利息和货币通论》中没有形式化模型。


He chose to leave the mathematical formalization to others, because he wanted his readers (fellow economists, not the general public) to catch the “intuition” of what he was saying.	他选择了将数学形式化工作交给其他人去做，因为他希望他的读者（经济学家同行，而不是普罗大众）抓住他所说的 “直觉”。


Joseph Schumpeter and Friedrich Hayek, the two most famous Austrian economists of the last century, also attacked the view of the economy as a machine.	上个世纪最著名的两位奥地利经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特（Joseph Schumpeter）和弗雷德里希·哈耶克（Friedrich Hayek）也抨击了将经济视为机器的观点。


Schumpeter argued that a capitalist economy develops through unceasing destruction of old relationships.	熊彼特认为，资本主义经济通过不断地打破旧关系发展。


For Hayek, the magic of the market is not that it grinds out a system of general equilibrium, but that it coordinates the disparate plans of countless individuals in a world of dispersed knowledge.	对哈耶克来说，市场的魔术不在于它打磨形成一组一般均衡，而在于在知识分散的世界中协调无数个体的各不相同的计划。


What unites the great economists, and many other good ones, is a broad education and outlook.	组成经济学大师和许多其他大师的是广泛的教育和眼光。


This gives them access to many different ways of understanding the economy.	这给了他们以众多不同方式理解经济的钥匙。


The giants of earlier generations knew a lot of things besides economics.	先辈巨人们了解大量经济学之外的东西。


Keynes graduated in mathematics, but was steeped in the classics (and studied economics for less than a year before starting to teach it).	凯恩斯毕业于数学专业，但浸淫经典多年（在教授经济学之前，他只学了不到一年经济学）。


Schumpeter got his PhD in law; Hayek’s were in law and political science, and he also studied philosophy, psychology, and brain anatomy.	熊彼特是法学博士； 哈耶克的专业是法律和政治学，也研究哲学、心理学和大脑解剖学。


Today’s professional economists, by contrast, have studied almost nothing but economics.	相反，今天的职业经济学家除了经济学之外几乎不学无术。


They don’t even read the classics of their own discipline.	他们甚至不读本专业的经典。


Economic history comes, if at all, from data sets.	经济史——即使有的话——来自数据集。


Philosophy, which could teach them about the limits of the economic method, is a closed book.	哲学——教会他们经济模型的局限性——讳莫如深。


Mathematics, demanding and seductive, has monopolized their mental horizons.	数学——要求严格又令人着迷——垄断了他们的思想。


The economists are the idiots savants of our time.	经济学家已经成为当代白痴专家。


The Path to Altruism	通往利他主义之路


SHECHEN, NEPAL – “Cooperation,” the Harvard University biologist Martin Nowak has written, is “the architect of creativity throughout evolution, from cells to multicellular creatures to anthills to villages to cities.”	尼泊尔雪谦寺——哈佛大学生物学家马丁·诺瓦克写道，“合作是进化过程中创造力的源泉，从细胞、多细胞生物、蚁丘、村庄到城市莫不如此。


As mankind now tries to solve new, global challenges, we must also find new ways to cooperate.	”人类在力求迎接全球新挑战的同时，必须找到新的合作方式。


The basis for this cooperation must be altruism.	利他主义必须是合作的基础。


The desire to help others without consideration for ourselves is not just a noble ideal.	愿意无私向他人伸出援手不仅是一种崇高的理想。


Selflessness raises the quality and elevates the meaning of our lives, and that of our descendants; in fact, our very survival may even depend on it.	无私也提升了我们及子孙后代的生活品质和意义； 事实上，无私或许甚至是生存的必要条件。


We must have the insight to recognize this, and the audacity to say so.	我们必须敏锐地意识到这一点，并且大胆地告诉世界。


Humanity faces three monumental challenges: ensuring everyone decent living conditions, improving life satisfaction, and protecting our planet.	人类面临着三项重要挑战：确保所有人拥有体面的生活条件、提高生活满意度和保护我们的地球。


Traditional cost-benefit analysis struggles to reconcile these demands, because they span different time frames.	传统的成本效益分析很难把上述要求统一到一起，因为它们分属于不同的时间框架。


We worry about the state of the economy from year to year; but we consider our happiness over the course of a lifetime, while our concern for the environment will mainly benefit future generations.	我们担心每年的经济状况； 我们关注自己终生的幸福，而我们对环境的忧虑则主要为子孙后代造福。


But an altruistic approach requires few trade-offs.	但利他主义原则需要进行取舍。


A considerate investor will never speculate recklessly with his clients’ life savings, despite the potential gain for himself.	即使自己有可能从中受益，负责任的投资者也绝不会轻率地利用客户一生攒下的积蓄进行投机操作。


A caring citizen will always think first how his actions affect his community.	一位充满爱心的公民总是先想到自己的行为会对社会造成何种影响。


A selfless generation will exercise care with the planet, precisely in order to leave a livable world to its children.	无私的一代会处处关爱地球，而这恰恰是为子孙后代留下一个宜居的世界。


Altruism makes us all better off.	利他主义让所有人都能更好地生活。


This vision of the world may seem idealistic.	以这样的眼光来看待世界似乎过于理想化。


After all, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology have often claimed that humans share an essentially selfish nature.	毕竟，心理学、经济学和进化生物学普遍认为人类的本性同样是自私的。


But research over the past 30 years indicates that true altruism does exist and can extend beyond kin and community to encompass the welfare of humans generally – and that of other species.	但过去30年的研究表明真正的利他行为确实存在，而且可以超越亲属和社区，涵盖人类甚至是其他物种的普遍福祉。


Moreover, the altruist does not have to suffer for his good deeds; on the contrary, he often benefits indirectly from them, while the selfish actor often creates misery for himself as well as others.	此外，利他主义者并不一定会因善举而受损； 相反，在自私者为自己和他人带来痛苦的同时，利他主义者往往会间接受益于自己的善举。


Studies have also shown that an individual can learn to be altruistic.	研究还表明个人可以学会利他的行为方式。


Neuroscientists have identified three components of altruism that anyone can develop as acquired skills: empathy (understanding and sharing the feelings of another), loving kindness (the wish to spread happiness), and compassion (a desire to relieve the suffering of another).	神经学家已确定了利他主义的三个组成部分，每个人都可以通过学习来最终掌握：同理心（理解并分享他人的感受）、慈爱心（希望传播快乐）和同情心（希望减轻别人的痛苦）。


Societies, too, can become more altruistic (and may even enjoy an evolutionary advantage over their more selfish counterparts).	社会也可以向利他主义转化（甚至可以实现相对于自私同伴的进化优势）。


Research on the evolution of cultures suggests that human values can change more quickly than our genes.	对文化演变的研究表明人类价值观可以以超过人类基因的速度发生变化。


Thus, if we are to engender a more caring world, we must first recognize the importance of altruism – and then cultivate it among individuals and promote cultural change in our societies.	因此，如果要建设一个充满关爱的世界，我们必须先意识到利他主义的重要性——接着需要在人与人之间培育利他主义，并推动社会的文化变革。


Nowhere is the need to cultivate this recognition clearer than it is in our economic system.	利他主义最应该在经济领域得到认可。


The unrealistic pursuit of endless quantitative growth places intolerable strains on our planet and widens inequalities.	不切实际地追求无止境的数量增长给我们的星球带来了难以承受的压力，并不断加深不平等鸿沟。


But reversing that growth would create other problems; forcing people to compete for diminishing assets and resources would spread unemployment, poverty, and even violence.	但增长发生逆转会带来其他问题； 比如迫使人们争夺不断减少的资源和财产，从而导致失业、贫困乃至暴力不断扩大。


So a balance must be struck: the global community must lift 1.5 billion people out of poverty, while the excesses of the world’s richest consumers – which cause the vast majority of ecological degradation – must be limited.	因此必须要实现某种平衡：国际社会必须让15亿人摆脱贫困，同时要限制世界最富裕消费者导致绝大部分生态退化的过度消费行为。


We need not impose more taxes to achieve this, but we can persuade the wealthy that the eternal pursuit of material gain is both unsustainable and unnecessary for their own quality of life.	实现这一目标并不一定要加重税收，但我们可以说服有钱人无休无止地追求物质利益对提高自身生活质量既没有必要也无法持久。


This concept of “sustainable harmony” can be promoted by publishing indices of personal well-being and environmental preservation, alongside standard GDP data.	可以通过发布个人福利及环保指标，以及标准GDP数据的方式来推进这种“可持续和谐”的理念。


The government of Bhutan, for example, already accounts for the “social wealth” and “natural wealth” of its people, in addition to its GDP figures.	比方说，不丹政府就已经在GDP数据之外，提出了民众的“社会财富”和“自然财富”理念。


We could also establish a stock exchange, alongside traditional securities markets, comprising so-called ethical organizations, such as social enterprises, cooperative banks, microcredit agencies, and fair-trade groups.	我们也可以在传统的证券市场之外建立另外的证券交易市场，涵盖社会企业、合作银行、小额信贷机构及公平贸易团体等所谓的道德组织。


Several initiatives – for example, in Brazil, South Africa, and the United Kingdom – have already taken small steps in this direction.	巴西、南非和英国采取的若干举措已经朝这个方向迈出了一小步。


Small steps lead to big changes.	不积跬步无以至千里。


As the value of altruism becomes increasingly obvious, the new approach will spread through the economy, benefiting all of society, future generations, and the planet, too.	随着利他主义的价值日益凸显，新方法将推广到经济的所有领域，造福社会、地球和子孙后代。


Brazil’s Own Goals	巴西的乌龙球


RIO DE JANEIRO – Ready or not, Brazil is rolling out the welcome mat for sports fans from around the world.	里约热内卢—不管是否准备好，巴西正在打出欢迎世界各地体育迷的标语。


As soon as the clock winds down on the final FIFA World Cup soccer match in July, the country will resume preparations to host the 2016 Summer Olympics.	7月国际足联世界杯一落幕，巴西还将紧锣密鼓准备2016年夏季奥运会。


But, even as Brazil steps into the international spotlight, it maintains considerable barriers to the global economy, damaging its prospects for future growth and prosperity.	但是，虽然巴西已成为国际关注焦点，但它融入全球经济仍然阻碍重重，并且妨碍到它的未来增长和繁荣。


In a world that is constantly becoming more interconnected, Brazil risks being left behind.	在这个互相联系日益紧密的世界，巴西面临着落后的风险。


Brazil has risen to become the world’s seventh-largest economy, propelled by a commodities boom, a demographic dividend, and rising consumption.	巴西已成为世界第七大经济体，这要归功于大宗商品繁荣、人口红利和消费的增加。


Yet it ranks 95th in per capita GDP.	但巴西人均GDP仍只排在第95位。


This disparity can be at least partly explained by its 43rd-place ranking for “connectedness” in terms of flows of goods, services, finance, people, and data and communications.	这一反差至少部分可归因于巴西在以商品、服务、金融、人口以及数据和通信流为标准的“连通性”（connectedness）上只名列第43位。


Sealing itself off from the bracing effects of global competition is sapping Brazil of much-needed momentum, with serious consequences for households, most of which have experienced only modest income growth in recent years.	自我封闭不参与全球经济让巴西失去了急需的动力，给巴西家庭造成了严重后果，近几年中，巴西家庭收入增长十分低迷。


While Brazil has halved its official poverty rate since 2003, prohibitively high consumer-goods prices and astronomical credit-card interest rates (averaging 145%) have prevented many of those who have escaped poverty from attaining middle-class lifestyles.	尽管自2003年以来，巴西官方贫困率降低了一半，但高企的消费商品价格和信用卡利率（平均为145%）让许多摆脱贫困状况的人民无法进入中产阶级行列。


In order to lift half of the still-vulnerable population into the middle class, Brazil will need 4.2% annual GDP growth, on average, through 2030 – a target that can be met by tripling productivity growth.	要使一半仍然相当脆弱的人口迈入中产阶级行列，巴西需要在2030年前保持平均4. 2%的年GDP增长率——实现这一目标需要让生产率增长率翻三倍。


That may be an ambitious goal, but it is achievable, especially if Brazil becomes more deeply integrated into global markets and multinational production networks.	这也许是个宏大的目标，但并不是不可实现的，特别是如果巴西深入融合到全球市场和跨国生产网络中的话。


In fact, an assessment of how global connections affect economic growth suggests that, by pursuing deeper engagement with the world, Brazil could boost its average annual rate of GDP growth by up to 1.25 percentage points.	事实上，一份关于全球连通性如何影响经济增长的评估报告指出，通过更深入地与世界融合，巴西可以让其平均年GDP增长率提高1.


That would propel the economy roughly one-third of the way toward higher incomes and better living standards.	25个百分点。 这可以让巴西经济完成提高收入和生活水平的任务的三分之一。


With global connectivity undergoing a profound transformation, now is the time to establish key partnerships and claim market shares.	与全球连通性相辅相成的是深远的变革，现在应该建立重要伙伴关系并争夺市场份额。


In doing so, Brazil would gain access to innumerable opportunities for growth.	这样能让巴西获得无数增长机会。


It would also reap the benefits of global competition, which would compel local firms to seek greater efficiency by implementing lean processes, investing in research and development, or adopting the latest technologies.	这还能带来全球竞争的好处，促使本地企业通过工艺精细化、研发投资和采取最新技术提高效率。


Global exposure makes supply chains more dynamic and enables companies to absorb more of the innovations, technologies, and ideas that are constantly emerging worldwide.	参与全球竞争能让供应链更具活力，让公司的以吸收更多在全世界范围内不断涌现的创新、技术和思想。


For decades, Brazil’s economic policy has drawn on the strength of its huge domestic market and protected local industries through a complex system of subsidies, taxes, and tariffs.	几十年来，巴西经济政策一直是背靠其巨大的国内市场优势制定的，通过复杂的补贴、税收和关税制度保护本地产业。


But exports are equivalent to only 13% of GDP, far below the level in India (24%) or Mexico (33%).	但出口只占GDP的13%，远远低于印度（24%）和墨西哥（33%）。


Furthermore, the sharp appreciation of the real’s exchange rate – driven by high global commodities prices – has diminished export competitiveness.	此外，里亚尔汇率的急剧升值——受全球大宗商品价格高企驱动——影响了巴西的出口竞争力。


As a result, from 2005 to 2012, Brazil’s $20 billion trade surplus in manufactured goods swung to a $45 billion deficit.	结果，从2005年到2012年，巴西制造业贸易余额从200亿美元盈余转变为450亿美元赤字。


To boost exports, Brazil will have to develop distinctive skills and capabilities, particularly in industries adjacent to commodities.	要想重振出口，巴西必须发展与众不同的技能和能力，特别是在大宗商品相关产业。


Despite efforts to liberalize trade, reform has been uneven.	尽管做出了贸易自由化努力，但改革有失偏颇。


In the heavily protected automotive industry, high import tariffs have encouraged foreign automakers to establish factories in Brazil.	在深受保护的汽车工业，高进口关税鼓励外国汽车制造商在巴西设厂。


But their productivity remains low; auto plants in Mexico, for example, produce twice as many vehicles per worker.	但它们的生产率很低； 比如，墨西哥汽车工厂人均汽车产量比巴西高一倍。


And Brazil exports only a small share of the vehicles that it produces.	并且巴西所造汽车的出口比例很小。


This contrasts sharply with Brazil’s success in developing innovative and globally competitive aerospace and agricultural sectors.	这与巴西在开发具全球竞争力的创新性宇航和农业部门中所获得的成功形成了鲜明对比。


One critical difference was the authorities’ emphasis on boosting R&D in these sectors before reducing the government’s direct role.	一个关键区别在于当局在这些部门先着重于提振研发，然后才减少政府的直接作用。


Brazil’s trade in goods also suffers from the country’s inadequate transportation and communications networks.	巴西的商品贸易也受巴西交通和通信网络不畅的制约。 铁路系统容量有限，公路也只有14%能够畅通。


The rail system is limited, and only 14% of roads are paved, which is not surprising, given that Brazil’s investment in infrastructure averaged only 2.2% of GDP in 2000-2011 – well below the global average.	这并不令人惊奇，因为2000—2011年间巴西的基础设施投资平均只占GDP的2. 2%，远低于全球平均水平。


Brazil can improve on this record by using profits from the offshore oil fields that it is currently developing.	巴西可以通过将正在开发中的离岸油田所获得的利润用于基础设施建设来改进这一点。


As for trade in services – an area where performance has been lackluster, at best – Brazil would benefit considerably from increased foreign-language proficiency, which would enable more Brazilians to conduct business abroad.	至于服务贸易——在这方面巴西的表现更加无亮点可言——巴西从外语技能提高中获益良多。 外语技能的提高让更多的巴西人能够出国做生意。


Tourism also offers significant growth potential, particularly if Brazil can build on the rare opportunity presented by hosting the World Cup and the Olympics.	旅游业也有巨大的增长潜力，特别是如果巴西能够抓住举办世界杯和奥运会的难得契机的话。


Brazil’s connectedness agenda should also include efforts to attract more foreign talent.	巴西的连通性日程还应该包括吸引更多外国人才。


Skilled migrants have been essential to the growth of some of the world’s leading hubs of technology and innovation – from Silicon Valley to Ireland, India, and Taiwan.	高技能移民是不少世界领先的科技和创新枢纽实现增长的关键因素——从硅谷到爱尔兰、印度和中国台湾莫不如此。


Today, only 0.5% of Brazil’s workforce is foreign-born, compared to more than 5% in the early 1900s.	如今，巴西只有0. 5%的劳动力为外国出生，而在20世纪初这一比例为5%以上。


Brazil also lags in terms of data and communication flows, partly because a large share of the population lacks Internet access.	巴西在数据和通信流方面也处于落后地位，这部分是因为很大一部分巴西人享受不到互联网。


With improved digital links, Brazil would gain new opportunities to improve productivity and innovation.	若能改进数字连接，巴西将获得新的提高生产率和创新的机会。


What better place than Brazil, with its large and growing consumer market, to incubate the next Facebook?	巴西拥有不断增长的巨大的消费市场，比其他任何地区都更适合产生下一个Facebook。


If that sounds farfetched, consider this: Instagram co-founder Mike Krieger is a Brazilian who left home to find his fortune in San Francisco.	如果你觉得这有些牵强，可以关注一下这一点：Instagram联合创始人麦克·克雷格（Mike Krieger）就是背井离乡来到旧金山追求财富的巴西人。


This month, the World Cup is bringing the world to Brazil.	本月，世界杯将把全世界贷给巴西。


It is up to Brazil to invite it to stay.	能不能留住全世界就要看巴西的了。


No-Brainer Sustainable Development	无脑可持续发展


BUDAPEST – The 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals have among their objectives primary-school education for all children, jobs for all adults, and an end to hunger and poverty.	布达佩斯—2030年联合国可持续发展目标（SDG）包括了让所有儿童接受小学教育、让所有成人拥有工作、结束饥饿和贫困等小目标（objective）。


These are noble aspirations – but very expensive.	这些都是高尚的愿望，但十分昂贵。


Can we really afford them all?	我们真的有能力实现所有这些愿望吗？


The OECD has estimated that meeting all 17 SDGs, which comprise 169 specific development targets, would cost $3.3-4.5 trillion annually – about the same as the United States’ 2016 federal budget, and far more than the nearly $132 billion spent globally on overseas development aid last year.	3—4. 5万亿美元，即相当于美国2016年联邦预算，远远高于去年全球海外发展援助总量的近1,320亿美元。


In fact, just providing universal primary education would require at least $17 billion of additional spending per year, and a UN General Assembly intergovernmental committee estimates that eradicating poverty would require annual investments in infrastructure of $5-7 trillion globally.	事实上，仅仅是提供全民小学教育就需要每年增加至少170亿美元支出，联合国大会政府间委员会估算，消灭贫困需要全球每年投入5-7万亿美元用于基础设施。


In truth, estimates vary because nobody is quite sure how much the SDGs will cost.	在现实中，估算值可能大相径庭，因为没人能够确定SDG到底要花费多少。


Meanwhile, donor countries are unlikely to provide meaningful increases in development funding anytime soon.	与此同时，出资国所提供的发展资金在近期不可能有实质性增加。


In the United Kingdom, voters want to renege on a previous foreign-aid commitment – amounting to 0.7% of GDP – by a margin of two to one.	在英国，选民希望将此前许诺的对外援助——大约相当于GDP的0. 7%缩减二分之一。


In the United States, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said that the federal government should “stop sending foreign aid to countries that hate us.”	在美国，共和党总统获选人特朗普称联邦政府应该“停止花钱为讨厌我们的国家提供对外援助”。


And in Australia, the government has already slashed its aid budget to an all-time low, measured against gross national income.	在澳大利亚，政府已将援助预算削减至历史最低水平（以占国民总收入的比例衡量）。


If we can’t count on full funding for every SDG, then we should spend what we have wisely, and not spend more on investments that historically yield low returns.	如果每项SDG都获得充分的融资已经没有希望，那么我们就应该合理地支出我们所拥有的资金，不要在历史回报较低的目标上增加投资支出。


For example, in education, investing in smaller class sizes and higher teacher salaries has not had any significant impact on student test scores.	比如，在教育方面，投资于小班化和提高教师薪酬对于改善学生考试成绩没有任何重大帮助。


Another area that promises more than it delivers is “climate aid,” which allocates development funds to efforts to mitigate the effects of global warming.	另一个回报不如承诺的领域是“气候援助”，这项援助将发展资金用于减小气候变暖的影响。


Too often, this funding serves a cosmetic purpose – making donors appear environmentally friendly – rather than effecting genuine change.	但这笔钱常常用来装点门面——让出资者表现出环境友好的样��——而没有带来真正的变化。


Indeed, while climate-aid schemes proliferate, many countries are still wasting billions to reduce gas prices artificially.	事实上，尽管气候援助机制发展迅速，但许多国家仍在浪费数十亿美元用于人为降低燃气价格。


In 2014, spending on fossil-fuel subsidies amounted to $20-30 billion in China, Egypt, Venezuela, and Algeria; $40 billion in Russia and India; and $70 billion in Iran and Saudi Arabia.	2014年，中国、埃及、委内瑞拉和阿尔及利亚的化石燃料补贴高达200—300亿美元； 俄罗斯和印度为400亿美元；


Among the many energy-related objectives of the SDGs, the call to end fossil-fuel subsidies is a no-brainer.	在SDG中的许多与能源有关的小目标中，终止化石燃料补贴可谓是一项无脑要求。


Economists at the think tank I lead estimate that every dollar diverted from energy subsidies could generate at least $15 in benefits to society.	我主持的智库的经济学家估算，从能源补贴中每抽出一美元可以给社会造成至少15美元的收益。


Ending these subsidies would reduce CO2 emissions, air pollution, and automobile congestion.	终止这些补贴可以减少二氧化碳排放、空气污染和交通拥堵。


More important, it would free up money for other areas like health and nutrition, where simple measures can have a massive impact relative to their cost.	更重要的是，这样可以释放出资金用于医疗和营养等其他领域，在这些领域，简单的措施就能产生远大于成本的影响。


For example, while malaria killed more than 400,000 people last year, insecticidal nets to guard against malaria-carrying mosquitoes are effective for two to three years, and cost less than $10 to manufacture and distribute.	比如，去年有400,000多人死于疟疾，用于对付携带疟疾的蚊虫的驱虫蚊帐有效期高达两到三年，而其制造和销售成本还不到10美元。


All told, a single case of clinical malaria can be averted for as little as $11.	这样算来，减少一例临床疟疾的成本可以下降到区区11美元。


According to the charity evaluator Givewell, the Against Malaria Foundation saves a child’s life with every $3,500 it spends, and one study in Kenya even found that as little as $1,000 spent on bed-net distribution can prevent a child’s death.	据慈善评估机构Givewell估算，预防疟疾基金会拯救一名儿童的生命需要花费3,500美元，而肯尼亚的一项研究发现，只要在蚊帐推广方面花费1,000美元，就能让一名儿童免于死亡。


The typical American worker spends that much every year on coffee.	一名普通美国工人每年花在咖啡上的支出都比这个数字高得多。


A small outlay can save one person from suffering through a painful fever, headaches, debilitating malaise, vomiting, and other symptoms of malaria; and it can save a community from lost economic productivity, because kids miss fewer days in school, and adults miss work less often.	一笔小小的开支就能拯救一个人免受痛苦的发热、头痛、衰弱、呕吐和其他疟疾症状； 还能让社区免于损失经济生产率，因为儿童缺堂、工人缺工的情况将更加罕见。


And it can save hundreds of thousands of lives.	它还能拯救数十万生命。


Our economists estimate that investing to reduce the incidence of malaria by 50% yields a 35-fold return in benefits to society.	我们的经济学家估算，将疟疾发病率降低50%的投资可以为社会带来35倍的回报。


Another simple and effective health-care intervention is to make aspirin more widely available, so that it can be taken at the onset of heart attacks to prevent death.	另一项简单而有效的医疗干预是让增加阿司匹林的普及度，让所有人都能在心脏病发作时通过服用阿司匹林救命。


The cost per treated case of providing this cheap drug alongside clinical visits and diagnostic tests is just $13-15, which means that we could reach 75% of the population in low- and middle-income countries for just $3.5 billion.	在出诊和诊断检查过程中提供这一廉价药物的平均治疗费用只需要13—15美元，这意味着只需要35亿美元就能将75%的中低收入国家人口包括进来。


That is roughly a fifth of what Brazil spent to host the Summer Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro this year.	巴西举办今年夏天的里约热内卢奥运会的支出是这一数字的五倍。


Likewise, basic nutritional interventions – especially for pregnant women and infants – can have far-reaching effects for individuals and communities.	类似地，基础营养干预——特别是针对孕妇和婴儿的干预——可以对个人和社区产生深远影响。


Adequate nutrition improves a child’s long-term health, educational performance, and future earnings.	充足的营养可以改善儿童的长期健康、教育表现和未来收入。


Investing in nutrition is another no-brainer: measures such as salt iodization, and iron and folic acid and vitamin A supplementation can cost just a few cents annually per recipient.	营养投资是又一项无脑投资：加碘盐、铁和叶酸以及维生素A补充等措施每年每人的成本不过几分钱。


Similarly, deworming treatments and vaccination are inexpensive, effective, and have a high return on investment.	类似地，驱虫治疗和免疫也廉价高效，并且能带来很高的投资回报。


While we should not only look for “bargains” in the SDGs, we absolutely should look for where a dollar is best spent.	我们不应该只着眼于SDG中的“廉价”项目，但绝对应该探索如何把钱花在刀刃上。


It will be great if we can increase funding, but it would be foolish to think that development-aid money will multiply overnight, or that the UN’s massive, quixotic development agenda has the resources to remain on track.	能增加资金固然最好，但妄想发展援助资金能一夜之间翻倍，或宏大得不切实际的联合国发展议程具备稳步推进所需要的资源是相当愚蠢得。


In fact, to persuade high-income countries – and their taxpayers – to increase their development-aid outlays, we will have to be more mindful of costs and benefits, and recognize that not all development targets are equal.	事实上，要想说服高收入国家——及其纳税人增加发展援助支出，我们必须更注重于性价比，并认识到并非所有发展目标都是平等的。


When we can completely transform someone’s life for pennies, we should accept that small victory before pursuing grand projects with even grander price tags and no guarantee of success.	当我们可以完全将一个人的生命换算为货币，我们应该接受这个小小的胜利，然后再去追求大项目，大项目的价格也许更大，并且不能保证成功。


Where money is lacking, common sense shouldn’t be.	可以缺钱，但不能缺常识。


May Day Madness	“五•一”的疯狂


May 1, 2006, is a crucial date for Europe, for it is the deadline for implementing the European Union’s directive on freedom of movement into national law.	2006年5月1日对欧洲而言是个关键日期，因为它是在各国国内法律中贯彻欧盟关于人员流动自由的指令的最后期限。


Most countries have already changed their immigration laws, or have promised to do so before the deadline.	大多数国家已经修改了他们的移民法，或已经承诺在最后期限前这样做。


Only Belgium, Italy, Finland, and Luxemburg lag behind.	迟迟不动的国家只有比利时、意大利、芬兰和卢森堡。


True, some of the old EU countries have opted for a prohibition of labor migration during a transition period that is initially set at two years and may be extended to April 2011.	的确，有的老牌欧盟国家选择了在过渡期禁止劳动力迁移。 这一过渡期初步设定为两年，并有可能延长到2011年4月。


However, this prohibition does not apply to people who are self-employed or not working.	但是，这一禁令不适用于自由职业者和无业者。


Such people already enjoy full freedom of free migration today.	这些人员已经享受到了完全的迁移自由。


While the directive’s rules governing migration of employed and self-employed people hardly differ from previous EU law, the migration and social-welfare rights of non-working EU citizens have been significantly extended.	尽管该指令中有关从业人员和自由职业者迁移的规定和以前的欧盟法律大同小异，但无业的欧盟公民迁移和社会福利的权益则被显著地扩大了。


According to the directive, every EU citizen has the right to a residence permit for up to five years in any member state, followed by the right to permanent residence.	根据该指令，每一位欧盟公民都有权在任何一个成员国获得长达五年的居留许可，并在此基础上获得永久居留权。


In principle, even inactive immigrants will then be eligible for social-welfare benefits, just like nationals.	原则上，甚至非活动移民届时也和普通国民一样，有权享受社会福利。


The directive contains safeguards to limit potential abuse of welfare-state benefits during the first five years, including proof of health insurance coverage and a requirement that sufficient “resources” be shown when a residence permit of up to five years is requested.	该指令也包含了一些安全机制以在最初的五年里限制可能出现的滥用福利国家利益的情况。 其中包括出具健康保险证明，以及对申请可长达五年的居留许可的人士要求出示足够的“资源”证明的规定。


But it is not clear what these resources are meant to be.	但对具体资源的界定还不是很明确。


According to the directive’s preamble, the state cannot cite insufficient assets as a reason to refuse a residence permit, as this would be inadmissible discrimination.	据该指令的导言所述，国家不能将资产不足作为拒发居留许可的原因，因为这是一种不可容忍的歧视。


In theory, the resource requirement must be tailored to the individual circumstances of the immigrant.	从理论上讲，这种资源要求必须因人而异。


In practice, however, financial means in the form of assets or regular income are uniformly required from all immigrants, regardless of their individual characteristics.	然而在操作上，不论个体情况如何，资产或正常收入等形式的经济来源是对所有移民的统一要求。


Nevertheless, even during the five-year period, an immigrant will enjoy greater rights.	尽管如此，即便是在这五年期间，移民也能享受更多的权利。


If he becomes indigent after receiving a residence permit, he cannot automatically be returned to his home country, as was possible before.	如果他在取得居留许可后陷入贫困，也不可能如以往一样被遣返回祖国。


Instead, the welfare state must make its services available to him.	相反，福利国家必须向他提供必要的帮助。


Only “unreasonable” claims may be refused, but the state will bear the burden of proving unreasonableness.	只有“不合理”的要求才可能被拒绝，但国家要负责证明这种不合理性。


Nor can the duration of the residence permit be shortened simply because the immigrant claims welfare assistance.	也不能只因为该移民要求福利援助就缩短其居留期限。


When the five years of legal residence are completed, an immigrant automatically gains the inalienable right to permanent residence.	当五年的合法居留期满以后，移民自动获得申请永久居留权的不可剥夺的权利。


The host country cannot deny this right even if an immigrant has no health insurance and no resources to live on.	即便该移民没有健康保险，也没有赖以安身立命的足够资源，寄居国也不能否认其应有的权利。


The immigrant will be fully eligible for all benefits the host country offers its domestic residents.	该移民将会享受到寄居国赋予其本国居民的所有权利。


The incentives to make use of the new directive will be especially strong for East Europeans.	东欧人利用新指令的动机会特别强烈。


Today, average nominal wages in the eight post-communist EU countries are about one-fifth of the West European level and often only a quarter to a half of Western levels of social assistance.	当今，八个后共产主义欧盟国家的平均名义工资只有西欧水平的五分之一，社会援助水平只有西欧的四分之一到一半。


The real differences in living standards are not quite as large, but they are a temptation nonetheless.	实际生活水平的差距倒没有这么大，但无论如何诱惑还是存在的。


This will be particularly true for Bulgarians and Rumanians, who are invited to join the EU in 2007.	对于将在2007年加入欧盟的保加利亚人和罗马尼亚人而言尤其如此。


Currently their nominal wages are only about 7% of the West European average.	他们目前的名义工资只有西欧平均水平的7%。


Western Europe has already experienced three decades of indirect migration into the welfare state, as social benefits have created artificially high wages for the unskilled, simultaneously fueling excessive immigration and unemployment.	由于社会福利人为地给非熟练工人创造了高工资，并同步引发了过度的移民和失业问题，西欧福利国家已经经历了三十年的非直接移民。


Immigrants have crowded out domestic residents who prefer the benefits to engaging in low-wage competition with the newcomers.	移民排挤了本国居民。 而后者希望得到社会福利以和新来者进行低工资的竞争。


The directive on free movement implies a new era of direct migration into West European welfare states.	人员自由流动的指令意味着西欧福利国家进入了直接移民的新时代。


The result may be an erosion of these welfare states themselves.	其结果可能是这些福利国家的自我侵蚀。


As no West European state wants welfare immigration, and because they are unable to discriminate between nationals and EU immigrants, they will begin to reduce their services.	由于西欧国家不想接受福利移民，但又不能将国民和欧盟移民区别对待，所以他们会开始减少福利服务。


Europe will enter an extended period of competitive deterrence, during which it will gradually abandon its old social values.	欧洲会进入一段竞争性阻滞期，并在此期间逐渐放弃旧的社会价值观。


To be sure, countervailing political forces will press for harmonization of Europe’s social-welfare systems.	确切地说，此消彼长的各种政治力量会施压以求达成欧洲社会福利体系的和谐。


The draft EU constitution, which failed in the French and Dutch referenda last year, breathes the spirit of this approach.	在去年的法国和荷兰全民公决未获通过的欧盟宪法草案在这一举措中恢复着活力。


Unfortunately, harmonization would probably apply to wage replacement payments, implying uniform minimum wage constraints for EU countries.	不幸的是，这种和谐很可能适用于工资替代性报酬，也就意味着欧盟各国实行强制性的统一最低工资。


Given the EU’s economic heterogeneity, this outcome would likely boost unemployment.	鉴于欧洲经济发展的多样性，这一结果很可能会加重失业问题。


There is still time to avert these frightening effects.	我们仍有时间来避免这些令人恐惧的后果。


But, to do so, the directive on free movement must be changed, so that the right to immigrate does not automatically imply a right to social benefits.	但要这样做，就必须修改人员自由流动指令，从而使移民的权利不再自动与要求社会福利��权利挂钩。


If the home country were to remain responsible for welfare services to non-working immigrants, the erosion of West European welfare states that the theory of systems competition predicts could be halted.	如果移出国仍然对无业移民的福利负责，那么制度竞争理论所预言的那种对西欧福利国家的侵蚀则能够被停止。


But that would mean a substantial change in the direction of EU social policies, including revision of the draft constitution.	但那就意味着欧盟社会政策方向的重大变化，包括对宪法草案的修改。


McCain, Obama, and Hot Air	麦凯恩，奥巴马和夸夸其谈


WASHINGTON, DC – Whatever the outcome of the United States’ presidential election, climate change policy will be transformed.	华盛顿特区－不管美国总统选举的结果是什么，美国的气候变化政策都将会发生改变。


Both candidates have placed great importance on global warming.	两位总统候选人都对全球变暖给予高度重视。


Republican John McCain believes that it presents “a test of foresight, of political courage, and of the unselfish concern that one generation owes to the next,” while Democrat Barack Obama calls it “one of the greatest moral challenges of our generation.”	共和党人约翰·麦凯恩认为这代表了“对远见、政治勇气和一代人对下一代人无私的关怀的检验”，同时，民主党人巴拉克·奥巴马把它称为“对我们这一代人最大的道德挑战”。


It remains far from clear, however, whether the shift in rhetoric and policy will move the planet any closer to embracing the best response.	但是，在措辞和政策上的变化是否会使这个星球更近一步的迎来最佳的反响，这还远远不清楚。


Both McCain and Obama could leave future generations lumbered with the costs of major cuts in carbon emissions – without major cuts in temperatures.	麦凯恩和奥巴马都可以让后人受到重大碳减排－而对气温升高没有多大遏制－的措施的代价的拖累。


Both politicians are keen to tap into voters’ concerns about global warming.	两个政治家都急于表达他们听取选民对全球变暖的担忧的态度。


McCain launched a television commercial declaring that he had “stood up to President George Bush” on global warming.	麦凯恩发起了一个电视广告声称他已经就全球变暖“勇敢的面对乔治·布什总统并提出建议”。


If elected, Obama plans to count on former vice president and passionate campaigner Al Gore to help “lead the fight” against warming.	如果当选，奥巴马计划依靠前副总统兼充满激情的活动家阿尔·戈尔，使其帮助“领导”反对变暖的战争。


Each would introduce aggressive targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.	两人都要引进减少温室气体排放的激进的目标。


Obama’s plan would reduce emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, while McCain aims to ensure that emissions are 60% lower by then.	奥巴马计划到2050年，使其排放水平比1990年的排放水平相比减少80%，同时麦凯恩的目标是保证到2050年减少60%。


Both would achieve these ambitious cuts by the same method: a cap-and-trade system that imposes limits on industry emissions and forces businesses to buy rights to any additional emissions.	两人都打算用同样的方法来取得这些雄心勃勃的减排目标，这个方法就是对工业排放施加限制并且强迫企业购买额外排放权利的总量管制与排放交易体系。


A cap-and-trade system can seem like a neat market solution.	总量管制与排放交易体系似乎是一个灵活的市场解决方案。


In fact, it is worse than a straightforward carbon tax.	但是事实上，它比直接的烟尘排放税更糟。


With a tax, the costs are obvious.	在收税的情况下，成本是很明显的。


With a cap-and-trade system, the costs – in terms of jobs, household consumption, and economic growth – are hidden, shifted around, and not easy to estimate, though models indicate they will run into trillions of dollars.	在总量管制与排放交易体系下，成本－在就业，居民生活消费以及经济增长方面－都是隐性的，被到处转移并且不容易评估，虽然模型显示成本达到了几万亿美元。


Not everybody would lose.	并不是每个人在这个体系中都一无所获。


Some big businesses in privileged positions would make a fortune from exploiting this rather rigged market.	有些具有特权的大企业通过开发这个被垄断的市场来赚大钱。


And politicians would have an opportunity to control the number and distribution of emission permits and the flow of billions of dollars in subsidies and sweeteners.	政治家有机会控制排放许可证的数量和发放以及几十亿美元补贴和资助的流向。


This is a very expensive, unwieldy way to achieve a very small reduction in temperatures.	但是这是一个非常昂贵而笨拙的方法，用它只能在很小的程度上降低气温。


The Warner-Lieberman bill on climate change – a piece of legislation which was recently abandoned in the US Senate but is seen as a precursor of future policy – would have postponed the temperature increase in 2050 by about two years.	关于气候变化的华纳－李伯曼（Warner-Lieberman）法案－一个最近被美国参议院废弃但是被认为是未来政策的先驱的立法－本来到2050年已经延缓气温上升大约两年时间。


Recently, the Copenhagen Consensus project gathered eight of the world’s top economists – including five Nobel laureates – to examine research on the best ways to tackle 10 global challenges: air pollution, conflict, disease, global warming, hunger and malnutrition, lack of education, gender inequity, lack of water and sanitation, terrorism, and trade barriers.	最近，哥本哈根共识计划聚集了八位全球顶级的经济学家－包括五位诺贝尔奖获得者－来审查有关迎接10个全球挑战最好的方法的研究，这10个挑战包括：空气污染，冲突，疾病，全球变暖，饥饿和营养不良，教育缺乏，性别不平等，水和卫生设施缺乏，恐怖主义以及贸易壁垒。


Their goal was to create a prioritized list showing how money could best be spent combating these problems.	他们的目标是建立一个优先清单，以说明在抗击这些问题时花多少钱可以取得最好的效果。


The panel concluded that the least-effective use of resources would come from simply cutting CO2 emissions.	这个专门研究小组的结论是，对资源使用最无效的方法就是仅仅减少二氧化的排放量。


A lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the group that shared last year’s Nobel Peace Prize with Gore – told the experts that spending $800 billion over 100 years solely on mitigating emissions would reduce inevitable temperature increases by just 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century.	政府间气候变化工作小组－和戈尔分享去年的诺贝尔和平奖的组织－的主要缔造者告诉这些专家，在100年间花费8000亿美元专门用于减少排放，到本世纪末，只会对必然的气温升高减少华氏0. 4度。


Even accounting for the key environmental damage from warming, we would lose money, with avoided damages of just $685 billion for our $800 billion investment.	即使算上变暖导致的主要环境损害，我们也会赔钱，因为挽回的��失只有6850亿美元而我们在这上面的投入达8000亿美元。


The expert panel concluded that investing in research and development into low-carbon energy would be a much sounder, more effective option – an effort that both McCain and Obama support.	专家组推断在低炭能源的研究和开发上进行投资是一个更可靠和更有效的选择－这是麦凯恩和奥巴马都支持的方法。


But this, not carbon emissions, should be the core of their climate change policy.	但是，是这而不是炭排放才应该是两位总统候选人气候变化政策的中心。


Currently, low-carbon energy solutions are prohibitively expensive.	当前，低炭能源解决方案极其昂贵。


The typical cost of cutting a ton of CO2 is now about $20, but the damage from a ton of carbon in the atmosphere is about $2.	减少一吨二氧化碳的通常成本约20美元，但是一吨炭在空气中造成的损害大约是2美元。


So we need to reduce by roughly ten-fold the cost of cutting emissions.	所以我们需要将减少排放的成本降低到原成本的十分之一。


We can achieve this by spending dramatically more researching and developing low-carbon energy.	这可以通过在低炭能源上巨额增加研发开支来实现。


The US could provide leadership by committing to spending 0.05% of its GDP exploring non-carbon-emitting energy technologies – wind, wave, or solar power – or capturing CO2 emissions from power plants.	美国可以通过承诺用GDP的0. 05%来开发非炭排放能源技术－风能，波力能或者太阳能－或者通过消除发电厂的二氧化碳排放的方法，起到领导作用。


It would then have the moral authority to demand that other nations do the same.  By focusing more on research and development, and less in carbon cuts, both candidates could embrace a solution that encourages the best of the American innovative spirit and leaves the best possible legacy to future generations: a high-income, low-carbon energy world.	如果美国这样做了，那么它就有道德上的权力要求其他国家也这样做。 通过对研发更多的关注以及减少对炭减排的关注，两位候选人都可以纳入一个最大限度鼓励美国人创新精神并将最好的遗产留给后代的解决方案：一个高收益，低炭能源的世界。


The Meaning of Brexit	英国退出的意义


NEW YORK – The Brexit vote was a triple protest: against surging immigration, City of London bankers, and European Union institutions, in that order.	纽约—英国退出投票是一次三重示威：依次是反对移民涌入、伦敦金融城和欧盟机构。


It will have major consequences.	英国退出将产生重要后果。


Donald Trump’s campaign for the US presidency will receive a huge boost, as will other anti-immigrant populist politicians.	唐纳德·特朗普的美国总统选战将赢得巨大的推动，其他反移民民粹主义政客亦然。


Moreover, leaving the EU will wound the British economy, and could well push Scotland to leave the United Kingdom – to say nothing of Brexit’s ramifications for the future of European integration.	此外，脱离欧盟将伤害到英国经济，并很可能导致苏格兰脱离英国——更不用说对欧洲一体化的未来的影响了。


Brexit is thus a watershed event that signals the need for a new kind of globalization, one that could be far superior to the status quo that was rejected at the British polls.	因此，英国退出是一次分水岭事件，表明需要一种新型的全球化，它应该远远强于被英国民意拒绝的现状。


At its core, Brexit reflects a pervasive phenomenon in the high-income world: rising support for populist parties campaigning for a clampdown on immigration.	究其核心，英国退出反映了高收入世界的一个普遍现象：对宣扬严厉打击移民的民粹主义政党的支持日益兴盛。


Roughly half the population in Europe and the United States, generally working-class voters, believes that immigration is out of control, posing a threat to public order and cultural norms.	在欧洲和美国，大约一半人口（大多为工人阶级选民），认为移民已经失控，成为公共秩序和文化规范的一大威胁。


In the middle of the Brexit campaign in May, it was reported that the UK had net immigration of 333,000 persons in 2015, more than triple the government’s previously announced target of 100,000.	5月英国退出选战期间，有报道说2015年英国净移民流入为333,000人，是此前政府宣布的100,000人目标的三倍多。


That news came on top of the Syrian refugee crisis, terrorist attacks by Syrian migrants and disaffected children of earlier immigrants, and highly publicized reports of assaults on women and girls by migrants in Germany and elsewhere.	与此同时，叙利亚难民危机、叙利亚移民实施的恐怖袭击和早前移民孩子的不满，以及广为流传的德国和其他国家移民对妇女和女孩的袭击的报道不绝于耳。


In the US, Trump backers similarly rail against the country’s estimated 11 million undocumented residents, mainly Hispanic, who overwhelmingly live peaceful and productive lives, but without proper visas or work permits.	在美国，特朗普的支持者也将矛头指向了1,100万未注册居民（主要为西班牙裔），他们绝大多数过着和平的生活，从事生产性生计，但没有合法签证和工作许可。


For many Trump supporters, the crucial fact about the recent attack in Orlando is that the perpetrator was the son of Muslim immigrants from Afghanistan and acted in the name of anti-American sentiment (though committing mass murder with semi-automatic weapons is, alas, all too American).	对许多特朗普的支持者而言，关于最近的奥兰多袭击的关键事实是袭击者身为阿富汗穆斯林移民之子，并且带着反美情绪实施行动（尽管用自动武器进行大规模杀戮活动实在是，唉，太“美国”了）。


Warnings that Brexit would lower income levels were either dismissed outright, wrongly, as mere fearmongering, or weighed against the Leavers’ greater interest in border control.	关于英国退出将降低收入水平的警告要么错误地被认为是杞人忧天式的散布恐慌，要么与脱欧阵营在边境控制上的更大的利益有关。


A major factor, however, was implicit class warfare.	但是，一个主要因素是隐性阶级斗争。


Working-class “Leave” voters reasoned that most or all of the income losses would in any event be borne by the rich, and especially the despised bankers of the City of London.	工人阶级“脱欧”支持者认为，不管发生什么，大部分或全部收入损失都将由富人承担，特别是受到千夫所指的伦敦金融城银行家。


Americans disdain Wall Street and its greedy and often criminal behavior at least as much as the British working class disdains the City of London.	美国人对华尔街及其贪婪并且常常属于犯罪的行为的鄙夷一点都不亚于英国工人阶级对伦敦金融城。


This, too, suggests a campaign advantage for Trump over his opponent in November, Hillary Clinton, whose candidacy is heavily financed by Wall Street.	这也是特朗普对其11月总统大选的竞争对手希拉里·克林顿的竞选优势之一。 克林顿获得候选人资格，华尔街金主出力甚多。


Clinton should take note and distance herself from Wall Street.	克林顿应该引起注意，保持与华尔街的距离。


In the UK, these two powerful political currents – rejection of immigration and class warfare – were joined by the widespread sentiment that EU institutions are dysfunctional.	在英国，两股强大的政治潮流——拒绝移民和阶级斗争——又加入了欧盟机构无能的普遍情绪。


They surely are.	欧盟机构诚然无能。


One need only cite the last six years of mismanagement of the Greek crisis by self-serving, shortsighted European politicians.	只消看看过去六年来自私短视的欧盟政客在希腊危机上的处置失当便可一窥端倪。


The continuing eurozone turmoil was, understandably, enough to put off millions of UK voters.	不难理解，持续的欧元区动荡足以让数百万英国选民离心离德。


The short-run consequences of Brexit are already clear: the pound has plummeted to a 31-year low.	英国退出的短期后果已经一目了然：英镑暴跌至31年来低点。


In the near term, the City of London will face major uncertainties, job losses, and a collapse of bonuses.	在短期，伦敦金融城将面对巨大的不确定性、工作岗位流失和奖金急剧缩水。


Property values in London will cool.	英国房地产价值将冷却。


The possible longer-run knock-on effects in Europe – including likely Scottish independence; possible Catalonian independence; a breakdown of free movement of people in the EU; a surge in anti-immigrant politics (including the possible election of Trump and France’s Marine Le Pen) – are enormous.	对欧洲的可能的长期连带效应是巨大的，包括苏格兰独立、加泰罗尼亚独立、欧盟内部人员不���能够自由迁移、反移民政治兴起（包括特朗普和法国的马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）可能当选）等。


Other countries might hold referendums of their own, and some may choose to leave.	其他国家也可能进行全民公决，其中一些可能选择脱欧。


In Europe, the call to punish Britain pour encourager les autres – to warn those contemplating the same – is already rising.	在欧洲，已经出现了对英国杀一儆百的呼声——已警告考虑同样做法的国家。


This is European politics at its stupidest (also very much on display vis-à-vis Greece).	欧洲政治蠢态尽露（在希腊问题上亦是如此）。


The remaining EU should, instead, reflect on its obvious failings and fix them.	反之，欧盟其余部分应该深思显而易见的不足并填补它们。


Punishing Britain – by, say, denying it access to Europe’s single market – would only lead to the continued unraveling of the EU.	惩罚英国——比如拒绝其进入欧洲单一市场——只能导致欧盟继续解体。


So what should be done?	那么，应该做些什么？


I would suggest several measures, both to reduce the risks of catastrophic feedback loops in the short term and to maximize the benefits of reform in the long term.	我将提出一些措施，既是为了降低短期灾难性反馈环的风险，也是为了尽量扩大长期改革收益。


First, stop the refugee surge by ending the Syrian war immediately.	首先，通过立刻结束叙利亚战争阻止难民激增。


This can be accomplished by ending the CIA-Saudi alliance to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, thereby enabling Assad (with Russian and Iranian backing) to defeat the Islamic State and stabilize Syria (with a similar approach in neighboring Iraq).	这可以通过结束中央情报局-沙特合作推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德的行动实现，从而让阿萨德（在俄罗斯和伊朗的支持下）打败伊斯兰国、稳定叙利亚（并在相邻的伊拉克采取类似方针）。


America’s addiction to regime change (in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria) is the deep cause of Europe’s refugee crisis.	美国沉迷于颠覆政权（在阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚都是如此）是欧洲难民危机的深层次根源。


End the addiction, and the recent refugees could return home.	停止沉迷于此就有可能让最近的移民返回家园。


Second, stop NATO’s expansion to Ukraine and Georgia.	其次，停止北约向乌克兰和格鲁吉亚扩张。


The new Cold War with Russia is another US-contrived blunder with plenty of European naiveté attached.	与俄罗斯的新冷战是另一个美国炮制、欧洲天真跟进的错误。


Closing the door on NATO expansion would make it possible to ease tensions and normalize relations with Russia, stabilize Ukraine, and restore focus on the European economy and the European project.	关闭北约扩张的大门有可能缓和紧张和对俄关系正常化、稳定乌克兰并重新将注意力集中于欧洲经济和欧洲工程。


Third, don’t punish Britain.	第三，不要惩罚英国。


Instead, police national and EU borders to stop illegal migrants.	相反，监管国家和欧盟边境，阻止非法移民涌入。


This is not xenophobia, racism, or fanaticism.	这不是仇外、种族主义或狂热主义。


It is common sense that countries with the world’s most generous social-welfare provisions (Western Europe) must say no to millions (indeed hundreds of millions) of would-be migrants.	全世界社会福利最慷慨的国家（西欧）必须对数百万（事实上，是数亿）潜在移民说不，这是常识。


The same is true for the US.	美国亦然。


Fourth, restore a sense of fairness and opportunity for the disaffected working class and those whose livelihoods have been undermined by financial crises and the outsourcing of jobs.	第四，重新建立不满的工人阶级和生计受金融危机和工作岗位外包影响的群体的公平感和机会感。


This means following the social-democratic ethos of pursuing ample social spending for health, education, training, apprenticeships, and family support, financed by taxing the rich and closing tax havens, which are gutting public revenues and exacerbating economic injustice.	这意味着遵循社会民主思想，投入足够的社会开支于卫生、教育、培训、学徒制和家庭支持，资金可以来自对富人课税和取缔避税港，后者导致公共收入流失，也加剧了经济不公。


It also means finally giving Greece debt relief, thereby ending the long-running eurozone crisis.	这还意味着给予希腊债务纾困，从而结束漫长的欧元区危机。


Fifth, focus resources, including additional aid, on economic development, rather than war, in low-income countries.	第四，重视低收入国家的经济发展资源（包括增加援助）而不是战争。


Uncontrolled migration from today’s poor and conflict-ridden regions will become overwhelming, regardless of migration policies, if climate change, extreme poverty, and lack of skills and education undermine the development potential of Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Central Asia.	如果气候变化、极端贫困和缺乏技能和教育破坏了亚洲、中美和加勒比地区、中东以及中亚的发展潜力，来自当今贫穷和冲突影响地区的失控的移民流将变得不可阻挡，不管采取什么移民政策。


All of this underscores the need to shift from a strategy of war to one of sustainable development, especially by the US and Europe.	所有这些都强调需要从战争战略转向可持续发展战略，特别是美国和欧洲。


Walls and fences won’t stop millions of migrants fleeing violence, extreme poverty, hunger, disease, droughts, floods, and other ills.	高墙和藩篱不能阻止数百万移民逃离暴力、极端贫困、饥饿、疾病、干旱、洪水和其他状况。


Only global cooperation can do that.	唯有全球合作可以。


The Islamic State’s Perversion of Hijra	伊斯兰国对于迁徙的曲解


LONDON – In recent decades, the Arabic word jihad – once used to describe the duty of all Muslims to act according to their faith – has become overwhelmingly associated with the waging of violent war against non-believers.	伦敦——近数十年来，阿拉伯语中的单词圣战 ——曾被用来形容所有穆斯林按自身信仰行事的义务——已经在多数情况下与暴力打击非信徒相关。


With the rise of the Islamic State, another term has been refashioned for inclusion in the lexicon of extremist violence: hijra.	随着伊斯兰国的崛起，极端主义暴力辞典中又增加了一个新词：迁徙。


As with jihad, this is no mere semantic hijacking. The real-world implications are all too alarming.	像圣战一样，这绝不仅是劫持语义，而是具有令人忧虑的现实内涵。


By militarizing the concept of hijra, which traditionally referred to Muslims’ peaceful migration to lands where they would be free from persecution, they have created a powerful tool for radicalizing and recruiting Muslims far and wide, including in the United States and Europe.	通过将传统上指代穆斯林向不受迫害国度和平移民的迁徙概念军事化，他们已经创造出一种强有力的工具，煽动和招募生活在包括美国和欧洲在内的遥远国度的穆斯林。


Hijra’s association with Islam has its origins in the Prophet Mohammed’s escape from Mecca to Medina in 622, to avoid assassination and preserve his community.	迁徙与伊斯兰教的关系起源于622年先知穆罕默德为躲避暗杀和保护部落从麦加逃往麦地那的旅行。


He and his followers knew that as long as they remained in Mecca, they would be despised by non-Muslims; their very lives were in danger.	默罕默德及其追随者们知道，只要留在麦加，就会遭到非穆斯林的歧视； 他们的生命安全将遭受威胁。


And so, in an act of hijra – or migration – the prophet left the city of his birth.	因此，在一次迁徙——或者叫迁移行动中，先知离开了他自己出生的城市。


Islam would have a stable base, because Muslims in Medina would be free to worship according to the dictates of their faith.	伊斯兰教将因此拥有稳固的基础，因为生活在麦地那的穆斯林可以自由地信奉自己的信仰。


Mohammed’s hijra is not narrated in the Koran, but the sacred book is structured around the event, divided into revelations he received in Mecca and those he received in Medina.	《可兰经》并未记述默罕默德的迁徙，但圣书自始至终围绕着这一事件，分成麦加启示和麦地那启示篇。


The year of Mohammed’s hijra also became the first year of the Islamic calendar.	默罕默德迁徙那年也因此成为伊斯兰历元年。


And, as the faith spread, the word came to describe not only Mohammed’s departure for Medina, but also a general obligation by all Muslims to migrate to lands under Muslim rule when it will serve their faith.	随着伊斯兰教的传播，这个词不仅用来形容默罕默德离开麦加前往麦地那，也用来形容所有穆斯林在行使其信仰的前提下有义务移民到穆斯林治下的国度。


Over the course of Islamic history, hijra has come to represent more than physical movement; it is widely viewed as an injunction to create a better world in lands under Muslim rule.	在伊斯兰教的历史长河中，迁徙的涵义逐渐超出了物理运动； 它被广泛视为创造穆斯林治下美好世界的训令。


For millions of Muslims, it has been a guide to the universal predicament faced by all believers: how to be pious in an impious world.	对数以百万计的穆斯林而言，它是对所有虔诚教徒所面临的普遍困境的指引：如何在不虔诚的世界里保持虔诚。


At its most meaningful, hijra bridges the gap between how believers wish they lived and how they actually do live.	迁徙最大的意义在于弥合了信徒所希望生活和实际生活间的鸿沟。


In early modernity, however, with the systematic expulsion of Muslims from Spain in 1492, and later from lands seized by other colonial empires, hijra acquired a more violent meaning that anticipated its later association with jihad.	但在现代社会早期，随着1492年穆斯林被赶出西班牙、后来又被赶出其他殖民帝国控制的国家，迁徙又有了后来与圣战相关的更为暴力的含义。


Following these expulsions – most notably by the Spanish and Russian Empires – the concept came to signify not only the pressure to migrate, as during Mohammed’s lifetime, but also an ultimatum from the state: leave or you will be slaughtered.	驱逐事件发生后——其中最著名的当属西班牙和俄罗斯帝国——迁徙不仅像默罕默德有生之年那样代表迁移的压力，同时也代表国家的最后通牒：离开，否则你们将遭到屠杀。


Centuries after these violent expulsions by European powers, hijra today signifies much more than physical relocation.	在欧洲列强长达数百年的暴力驱逐后，今天迁徙的涵义已经超出了实际迁移的范畴。


For many modern Muslims, hijra represents the perpetual movement between memory and forgetting.	对许多现代穆斯林而言，迁徙所代表的是记忆和遗忘之间的永恒运动。


It is what Muslims do when – like Palestinians and Chechens– they have been dispossessed by more powerful states.	像巴勒斯坦和车臣人一样，穆斯林被强国驱逐时会实施迁徙行动。


It is how they create homes amid the homelessness of exile and displacement that is part of their modern condition.	他们就这样在流亡和无家可归的绝望中重建家园，反复上演者着他们在现代无数次的经历。


It is the turn to narrative to keep the past – and oneself – alive in the present.	只有重新诵读古兰经才能在今天保持过去——和自身——的鲜活。


Wherever and whenever in Islamic history there are stories of despair and loss, hijra emerges as a path to courage and spiritual victory.	无论何时何地只要伊斯兰史发生绝望和失落的故事，迁徙都会成为勇气和精神胜利的代名词。


It is both a beginning – an origin story – and a denouement to trauma.	它既是一个原创故事的开始，也是一个伤痕累累的结局。


Most recently, however, under the Islamic State, hijra has acquired a connotation that alienates it from its prior meanings.	但近来在伊斯兰国治下，迁徙已经被赋予了与此前截然不同的内涵。


The Islamic State can only understand hijra as physical migration for the purpose of jihad.	伊斯兰国对迁徙的理解仅仅是以圣战为目的的实际迁移。


For the Islamic State’s crude and contrived medievalism, the past is of only instrumental value, to be refashioned in the service of violent conquest and savage repression.	鉴于伊斯兰国粗暴做作的中世纪主义思想，过去仅仅具有为暴力征服和野蛮镇压服务的利用价值。


Far from being an ethical mode of remembering – a source of cultural continuity and consolation – hijra has been turned into a call to arms by this new self-proclaimed Caliphate, which the vast majority of Muslims today do not recognize as part of their religion.	迁徙已距离作为文化持续性和慰藉之源的记忆的道德模式渐行渐远，而蜕变为这个自封的哈里发的征讨檄文，今天绝大多数穆斯林并不承认这是他们宗教的一部分。


Before hijra became militarized, it was used to hold the present accountable to the past.	早在迁徙被赋予军事化涵义之前，其作用是保证现在对过去负责。 如果从这个更宽泛、也更难于捉摸的角度，迁徙远远超出——实际是混淆了伊斯兰国赋予的内涵。


In this richer, if more elusive, sense, hijra far exceeds – indeed, confounds – the Islamic State’s remit.	这个词源起于早期伊斯兰教信徒团体为和平生活而被迫迁徙，他们的目���绝非为了发动战争。


The word’s original evocation of the early Islamic community of believers who had to migrate not to wage war, but rather to live in peace, are nuances that the group’s ideologues – whose appeals to the force of the new require a purified version of the past – would very much like us to forget.	这在伊斯兰国组织的理论家们看来算不得什么重要差别。 他们试图用纯洁的过去吸引今天的力量——他们非常希望我们忘记穆斯林迁徙最初的事实。


America’s Lethal Fear of Science	美国的致命科学恐慌


NEW YORK – A rare, deadly, and highly contagious disease is spreading across the United States, having infected more than 100 people since the beginning of the year, with thousands more at risk.	纽约—如今，一场罕见的高传染性致命疾病正在美国蔓延，自今年年初以来已经感染了100多人，并由数千人属于高危人群。


This is not the doomsday Ebola scenario that so many were envisioning when the first case in the US was diagnosed five months ago.	这不是埃博拉式的末日情景——许多人在五个月前美国确诊首例埃博拉后担心这一点。


The resurgence is of the measles – a disease that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared eradicated in 2000, thanks to a highly effective and safe vaccine.	这是麻疹的死灰复燃——2000年，美国疾病控制和预防中心宣布，由于有了高效安全的疫苗，这种疾病已被根除。


What went wrong?	哪里出了问题？


Since 2000, measles cases in the US have been attributed largely to travelers bringing the disease into the country.	2000年以来，美国麻疹病例大部分归因于旅行者携带入境。


In recent years, however, measles has become increasingly common, with the number of cases climbing above 150 in 2013, and then jumping to 644 last year – the most cases recorded in a single year since the late 1990s.	但是，近几年来，麻疹日益普遍，2013年病例数达到了150以上，去年又增加至644人——这是20世纪90年代以来全年报告人数最多的一年。


This year already appears likely to top that record.	今年已经有了改写这一纪录的趋势。


The upsurge in cases can be explained largely by the increase in the number of unvaccinated children.	麻疹病例的激增大部分可以解释为未接种儿童数量的增加。


Americans are learning the hard way that scientifically baseless skepticism about the safety of vaccines is extremely dangerous.	美国人以沉重的代价了解到，针对疫苗的没有科学根据的怀疑是极其危险的。


Measles may have a lower mortality rate than Ebola, but its potential to inflict suffering and death – especially on young children – remains considerable.	麻疹的致死率也许不如埃博拉，但其造成痛苦和死亡——特别是对幼儿——的潜力仍然十分可观。


Indeed, before vaccination made measles a rarity, the disease was widely feared, killing thousands of children every year.	事实上，在疫苗基本根除麻疹前，人们普遍恐慌这种每年都要夺走数千儿童生命的疾病。


The tragic irony of vaccination in America is that it has become a victim of its own success.	在美国，疫苗问题的悲剧性矛盾是它成了自身成功的受害者。


As the number of people who have witnessed firsthand the effects of measles and other childhood diseases – such as mumps, rubella, polio, and whooping cough – has declined, so has society’s commitment to keeping them away.	亲眼目睹麻疹和其他儿童疾病——如流行性腮腺炎、风疹、脊髓灰质炎和百日咳等——影响的人数减少了，社会也不再着力于远离这些疾病。


Even after panicked claims that vaccines cause visible conditions like autism were proved to be nonsense, they remain more compelling than the threat of a disease that people have never seen or do not remember.	尽管关于疫苗导致孤独症等可见症状的恐慌性说法被证明是毫无根据的，但它们仍是比人们从未见过或已失去记忆的疾病更加紧迫的威胁。


Of course, vaccinations can have some side effects, such as a rash, fatigue, headache, or a fever.	当然，接种疫苗可能造成一些副作用，比如皮疹、疲劳、头痛或发热等。


But claims that significant, permanent damage resulting from vaccines is widespread are entirely unfounded.	但疫苗导致重大持久伤害的说法纯属无稽之谈。


Andrew Wakefield first claimed that there was a relationship between the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine and autism in 1998.	1998年，安德鲁·威克菲尔德（Andrew Wakefield）首次宣称麻疹、流行性腮腺炎和风疹疫苗与孤独症存在关系。


But it soon came to light that he had falsified his evidence, and his “research” was retracted.	但很快他就被曝光篡改了证据，并且他的“研究”已被收回。


Wakefield was later banned from practicing medicine in his home country, the United Kingdom, for “serious professional misconduct.”	威克菲尔德随后因为“严重失职”被禁止在其祖国英国行医。


But the damage had been done.	但伤害已经造成。


Despite Wakefield’s ostracism from the medical community and the exposure of his deceptions – not to mention numerous scientific studies that did not find any link whatsoever between vaccines and autism – he has retained a devoted following in the US.	尽管威克菲尔德已被医学界驱逐，并且其骗局也已经曝光——更不用说无数科学研究从未找到任何疫苗和孤独症之间的关系——但他在美国仍有许多铁杆拥趸。


Making matters worse, irresponsible and ignorant celebrities have seized upon his lies, using their access to the media to spread conspiracy theories and propaganda against vaccinations.	更糟糕的是，不负责任和无知的名人利用他的谎言，借接近媒体之便散播阴谋论和反疫苗接种宣传。


As a result, vaccination rates continue to decline – and in some communities, especially in California and Oregon, they have plummeted.	结果，疫苗接种率持续下降——在一些社区，特别是加州和俄勒冈州，接种率更是出现了暴跌。


From 1996 to 2015, there was a six-fold increase in the rate of vaccine exemptions for students entering elementary school in California.	从1996年到2015年，加州小学生未接种疫苗率增加了六倍。


This has contributed to the spread not only of measles, but also of whooping cough and mumps.	这不但导致了麻疹的传播，也导致了百日咳和流行性腮腺炎的蔓延。


Parents argue that vaccination, like all other decisions about how to raise and care for their children, should be their choice.	父母们指出，疫苗接种就像其他关于如何抚养和看护孩子的决定一样，应该由他们做出。


But, when it comes to vaccination, one family’s poor judgment can mean sickness or even death for another’s.	但是，在疫苗接种问题上，一个家庭的糟糕判断可能意味着另一个家庭的患病甚至死亡。


When enough members of a community are vaccinated, a sort of “immunity buffer” is created, adding an extra layer of protection for vaccinated individuals, while shielding those who are not eligible for particular vaccines, such as infants or people with compromised immune systems – individuals for whom disease-mortality rates are highest.	当足够多数量的社区参与接种时，就会形成一种“社区缓冲”，给接种个体带来额外的保护，也为无法接种某些特殊疫苗的个体——比如婴儿或免疫系统功能不健全的人——提供了保护，他们都是疾病致死率最高的人群。


This phenomenon is called “herd immunity,” and it has been vital to vaccines’ effectiveness.	这一现象被称为“群体免疫”，并且对疫苗的效果具有关键作用。


This is not the first time that the American public has allowed fear to dictate public policy.	这不是美国公众第一次让恐慌左右公共政策。


Just a few months ago, Americans were terrified that Ebola could take hold in their country.	就在几个月前，美国人还在恐慌埃博拉会控制他们的国家。


Rather than providing responsible leadership, politicians like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky stoked the panic in an effort to win support in advance of last November’s midterm elections.	新泽西州州长克里斯·克里斯蒂（Chris Christie）和肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗（Rand Paul）等人非但没有履行领导责任，反而煽动恐慌，只为在去年11月的中期选举中增加支持率。


Experts’ attempts to impress upon Americans how difficult Ebola is to transmit, and how unlikely an Ebola epidemic in the US was, fell largely on deaf ears.	专家试图让美国人了解埃博拉传播有多么困难，以及埃博拉为何不可能在美国形成流行之势，但人们往往充耳不闻。


Today, Americans are again refusing to heed experts’ advice – only, this time, they really are facing a serious threat.	如今，美国人正在再次拒绝遵循专家的建议——只不过，这一回他们真的要面临严重威胁了。


Worse, politicians like Christie and Paul have tacitly (or not so tacitly) supported parents who choose not to vaccinate their children, regardless of the scientific consensus that such parents are contributing to a genuine public health crisis.	更糟糕的是，克里斯蒂和保罗等政客还心照不宣（或许没有那么心照不宣）地支持选择不给孩子接种疫苗的父母，完全无视这些父母正在造成真正的公共卫生危机这一科学共识。


Paul – who is, ironically, a physician – went so far as to mention the many children he knew who suffered “profound mental disorders” after having had vaccinations, indulging the anti-vaccination advocates who might support him politically, while stopping short of making a false scientific claim.	保罗——讽刺的是，他是一位医生——甚至宣称许多他认识的儿童在接种疫苗后遭遇了“严重精神障碍”，以取悦可能在政治上支持他的反疫苗接种者，这跟造谣只有一步之遥。 （按照他的逻辑，疫苗还让人长高了；


(By his logic, vaccines make people taller, too; after all, nearly every child I have known has grown taller after being vaccinated.)	毕竟，几乎我认识的所有孩子在接种疫苗后都长高了。 ）


The scientific method is perhaps the greatest arbiter of truth humanity has ever devised.	科学方法也许是是人类所发明的最伟大的真理仲裁者。


We must trust in it to help make sense of an uncertain world, and to help us determine how best to nourish and protect our children and ourselves.	我们必须相信科学方法，这样才能看清不确定的世界，才能帮助我们如何最好地抚育和保护我们的孩子和我们自身。


When parents are allowed – or, worse, encouraged – to choose fear over science, we all pay the price.	当父母可以——更糟糕地，被鼓励——选择恐慌而不是科学的话，我们所有人都要为此付出代价。


Measuring the Value of Free	衡量自由的价值


LONDON – Reliable economic statistics are a vital public good.	伦敦—可靠的经济统计数字是重要的公共品。


They are essential to effective policymaking, business planning, and the electorate’s ability to hold decision-makers to account.	它们是有效决策、商业规划和选民问责决策者的基础。


And yet the methods we use to measure our economies are becoming increasingly out of date.	但我们用来衡量我们的经济的方法正在日益过时。


The statistical conventions on which we base our estimates were adopted a half-century ago, at a time when the economy was producing relatively similar physical goods.	我们用来作为估算基础的统计约定是五十年前制定的，当时的经济生产的是相对较为相似的实体商品。


Today’s economy is radically different and changing rapidly – the result of technological innovation, the rising value of intangible, knowledge-based assets, and the internationalization of economic activity.	今天的经济已是面目全非，并在迅速变化中——这是技术创新、基于知识的无形资产价值提高和经济活动国际化的结果。


In light of these challenges, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne asked me ten months ago to assess the United Kingdom’s current and future statistical needs.	面对这些挑战，英国财政大臣奥斯本（George Osborne）十个月前要求我评估英国当前和未来统计需求。


While my research focused on the UK, the challenges of producing relevant, high-quality economic statistics are the same in many countries.	尽管我的研究以英国为中心，但进行切题的高质量经济统计的挑战对许多国家都是一致的。


Recent technological advances have radically altered the way people conduct their lives, both at work and at play.	最新技术进步彻底改变了人们过生活的方式，不管工作还是娱乐。


The advances in computing power underpinning the digital revolution have led not only to rapid quality improvements and product innovation, but also to new, connectivity-driven ways of exchanging and providing services.	计算能力的进步带来了数字革命，数字革命不但促进的质量的迅速改进和产品创新，还带来了新的互联性驱动的交换和提供服务的方式。


One particular challenge for economic measurement stems from the fact that an increasing share of consumption comprises digital products delivered at a zero price or funded through alternative means, such as advertising.	衡量经济的一个特殊挑战来自一个事实：以零价格提供或通过另类方式（如广告）筹资的数字产品占消费的比重越来越高。


While free virtual goods clearly have value to consumers, they are entirely excluded from GDP, in accordance with internationally accepted statistical standards.	尽管免费虚拟商品显然对消费者具有价值，但根据国际通行的统计标准，它们完全被排除在GDP之外。


As a result, our measurements may not be capturing a growing share of economic activity.	结果，我们的衡量指标可能无法覆盖日益增加的经济活动比例。


Consider the music industry.	以音乐产业为例。


Downloads and streaming services have now largely replaced CDs, the dominant medium in the 1990s.	如今下载和流媒体服务已经基本取代了20世纪90年代的主流媒介CD。


And yet the money has not followed; the industry’s revenues and margins have both plummeted.	但钱并没有跟进，音乐业收入和利润双双暴跌。


As a result, its contribution to GDP (as we currently measure it) may be falling, even as the quantity and quality of services are increasing.	结果，该产业对GDP的贡献（按照目前的衡量标准）在下降，尽管服务的数量和质量均在上升。


Two methods can give us a rough estimate how much digital economic activity we are failing to capture in our measurements.	两种方法可以让我们粗略地估计有多少数字经济活动没能体现在我们的衡量指标中。


We can use average wages to estimate the value of the time people spend online using free digital products, or we can adjust telecommunication services output to account for the rapid growth in Internet traffic.	我们可以用平均工资估算人们花在在线使用免费数字产品的时间的价值，或者，我们可以调整通讯服务产出以估计互联网流量的迅速增长。


Both approaches suggest that accounting for these types of activities could add between one-third and two-thirds of a percentage point to the average annual growth rate of the UK economy over the past decade.	两种方法都表明，这类活动的会计可以让过去十年英国经济的平均年增长率提高三分之一到三分之二个百分点。


The digital revolution is also disrupting traditional business models.	数字革命也在破坏传统商业模式。


The reduced search and matching costs offered by a range of online platforms are unlocking the market for skills (known as the “gig economy”) and the market for underutilized assets (known as the “sharing economy”).	各类在线平台降低了搜索和匹配成本，这解放了技能市场（被称为“栅格（gig）经济”）和未利用资产市场（被称为“共享经济”）。


This, too, causes conceptual and practical measurement challenges for established GDP calculus.	这也导致了现行GDP计算方法的概念和实践挑战。


The traditional statistical distinction between productive firms and consuming households leaves little room to account for households as value creators.	生产性企业和消费性家庭之间的传统统计区别很难将家庭视为价值创造者。


Measuring GDP, it turns out, is like trying to hit a moving target.	看上去，衡量GDP就像是射击移动靶。


The digital revolution is likely to be followed by yet another wave of disruptive technology, including advances in materials science, artificial intelligence, and genetic engineering.	数字革命之后可能是新一轮破坏性技术，包括材料科学、人工智能和基因工程的进步。


As the economy evolves, so must the frame of reference for the statistics we use to measure it.	随着经济的演进，我们用来衡量经济的统计参照系也必须跟着演进。


Consequently, internationally agreed statistical standards will almost always be somewhat out of date or incomplete, as they are bound to lag behind changes in the economy.	因此，国际通行统计标准将永远是过时或不全面的，因为它们必然会落后于经济的变化。


National statistical offices should explore measurement issues that go beyond the prevailing standards, rather than use compliance as an excuse for their failure to innovate.	国家统计部门应该探索超越现行标准范围的经济衡量问题，而不是以因循为借口为它们在创新方面的失败开脱。


One solution would be to establish a continuing program of research into the measurement implications of emerging economic trends, conducting one-off studies at first to gauge their potential quantitative importance.	一个方案是制定一个持续的计划研究新兴经济趋势的衡量影响，首先进行一次性研究以确定它们的潜在定量重要性。


This could then guide the development of experimental statistics capturing the new phenomena.	然后，可以用它来指导覆盖新现象的实验性统计数字的开发。


New techniques of collecting and analyzing big data, such as web scraping, text-mining, and machine learning, provide an opportunity for statisticians.	收集和分析大数据（如网页检索、文本挖掘和机器学习）的新技术为统计学家提供了机会。


Governments already hold some administrative data, but their use for statistical purposes often requires legislative changes.	政府已经掌握了一些管理数据，但它们的统计用途常常需要立法变化。 解放这一信息宝藏能扩大统计样本，达到接近普查的规模；


Unlocking this trove of information would extend statistical samples to near-census size, increase their timeliness and accuracy, and reduce the respondent costs to businesses and households.	提高它们的及时性和准确性； 并降低企业和家庭的回应成本。


Ensuring that data accurately reflect a changing economy is one of the hardest tasks faced by national statistical institutes worldwide.	确保数据准确反映变化的经济是全世界国家统计机构最艰巨的任务之一。


Success requires not only understanding the limitations of traditional measurements, but also developing a curious and self-critical workforce that can collaborate with partners in academia, industry, the public sector, and other national statistical institutes to develop more appropriate methods.	成功不但要求理解传统衡量指标的局限性，还需要发展一支有好奇心和自我批判精神的工作人员队伍，能与学界、产业界和公共部门和其他国家统计机构的伙伴合作制定更加合理的方法。


The UK is by no means alone in facing these challenges.	英国在面临这些挑战方面并不孤独。


But we need to act quickly.	但我们需要迅速行动。


Otherwise, the speed of economic change will render our statistics irrelevant to modern life.	否则，经济变化的速度将让我们的统计数字与现代生活格格不入。


Reversing the Medical Brain Drain	扭转医学人才窘境


GRENADA – With physicians already scarce worldwide, demand for foreign-born doctors in the United States and the United Kingdom is stretching developing and middle-income countries’ medical resources to the breaking point.	格林纳达—放眼全球，医生已经紧缺，美国和英国对外国医生的需求让发展中和中等收入国家医疗资源不堪重负。


In the US, for example, the shortfall of physicians could grow to nearly 95,000 by 2025, equivalent to 43% of all doctors working today.	比如，美国医生短缺状况到2025年可能达到近95,000人，相当于今天在职医生总数的43%。


When doctors are in short supply, the US and UK turn to countries like the Philippines to close the gap.	当医生供给不足时，美国和英国就转向菲律宾等国家填补缺口。


But this leaves the Philippines with its own significant shortage of medical professionals.	但这导致菲律宾自身也出现医疗专业人士严重短缺的情况。


The situation across Africa is no better.	非洲的情况也不容乐观。


In Kenya, more than 50% of all doctors are now practicing overseas, leaving just 20 physicians per 100,000 in the population.	在肯尼亚，超过50%的医生在海外执业，这导致每100,000肯尼亚人只有20名医生。


By contrast, the United Kingdom has 270 doctors per 100,000 people.	相反，每100,000英国人拥有270名医生。


To be sure, there is nothing wrong with doctors spending time working and training overseas; on the contrary, practicing in a variety of health-care systems is critical for producing experienced, well-rounded physicians.	平心而论，医生花时间在海外工作和培训没有什么错，相反，在不同医疗体系中执业对于培养经验丰富的全科医生至关重要。


The fundamental problem is that medical staff and students are leaving the developing world en masse to train in countries like the US and UK, and then never returning to work in their own communities.	根本性问题是医护人员和学生整体正在离开发展中国家，去美国和英国等国家受训，并永远不会回到祖国。


Moreover, supplier countries often pay for that medical education directly or indirectly, without ever receiving any of the benefits.	此外，医学教育学费常常由供给国支付，而这笔钱常常一去不返。


To reverse this trend, we must allow medical students to train in world-class clinical settings, while encouraging them to return to practice in their home countries.	要扭转这一趋势，我们必须让医学生在世界级临床环境中受训，同时鼓励他们回祖国执业。


This will not be easy, in part because practicing in developed countries is far more lucrative than practicing in the developing world, and doctors overwhelmingly prefer to work in the countries where they have trained.	这绝非易事，部分是因为在发达国家执业吸引力远大于在发展中世界执业，而医生基本上无不更喜欢在受训国工作。


Any effort to stop the one-way flow of medical talent from developing countries will have to address these factors.	任何旨在阻止医学人才流出发展中国家的单向流动都必须解决这些因素。


For starters, we should focus on where medical training happens.	首先，我们应该关注医学训练地。


Students could complete their preclinical training, and a portion of their clinical training, in their country of origin, and then be given the option of completing a temporary clinical-training stint in the US or the UK.	学生可以完成临床前训练，而临床训练的一部分放在祖国进行，然后自主选择在美国或英国完成短暂的临床训练阶段。


Residency programs are the last stage of the medical-training process, and they often determine doctors’ preferred practice setting.	住院是医学训练过程的最后阶段，该阶段常常决定医生喜欢怎样的执业环境。


When doctors from the developing world complete their residency programs in the US and UK, they rarely return home.	如果来自发展中世界的医生在美国和英国完成住院阶段，他们很少会回国。


In fact, they are often given strong incentives to stay: permanent-visa status and a valid license to practice medicine.	事实上，他们常常获得很强的留下激励：永久签证和有效的行医执照。


Low- and middle-income countries should thus provide more residency programs, and the US and the UK, which bear some responsibility for the current doctor-supply imbalance, should assist them with funding and know-how.	因此 ，中低收入国家应该提供更多的住院训练，而对当前医生供给失衡负有一定责任的美国和英国应该用资金和知识帮助中低收入国家。


We also need to address the financial incentives that lure an unsustainably large number of developing-world doctors overseas in the first place, perhaps by obliging emigrating physicians whose home-country governments financed their medical-school training to pay the cost before allowing them practice medicine overseas.	我们还需要克服吸引大量发展中世界医生从一开始就在海外执业的财务激励，手段可以是强制公费接受医学院训练的移民医生在获得海外行医许可前支付学费。


Thus, doctors would become liable for the value of their subsidized training when they elect to work abroad.	这样，当医生选择在国外工作时，就将背负等于他们所受的训练补贴的负债。


This condition could be imposed through a well-constructed scholarship system that embodies the slogan: “pay it back if you don’t come back.”	这一条件可以通过设计合理的奖学金制度实现，可以采取这样的口号：“不回来，就还钱。


Under this system, fewer students who intend to work permanently overseas will accept government subsidies, and more money will be available for students who wish to practice in their country of origin, or for investments in health-care infrastructure.	”在这一制度下，就不会有那么多志在持久在海外工作的学生选择政府补贴，从而有更多的资金用于志愿在祖国执业的学生，或用于卫生基础设施投资。


Trinidad has successfully implemented such a strategy – doctors who train overseas are required to return home for five years in exchange for their government scholarships – and the US has a similar program meant to encourage students to practice in particular geographical areas around the country.	特立尼达成功地实施了这一战略——在海外受训的医生白要求回国工作五年充抵政府奖学金——美国也有一个类似的项目，旨在鼓励学生在国内特殊地理条件地区执业。


At St. George’s University, where I am President and CEO, we have the CityDoctors Scholarship program, whereby New York City students who receive full-tuition scholarships to medical school must return to practice in New York City’s public hospital system for five years after their training.	在由我担任校长和CEO的圣乔治大学，有一个城市医生奖学金（CityDoctors Scholarship）计划，获得全学费奖学金的纽约市医学院学生必须在受训后回到纽约市公立医院系统执业五年。


If they do not return, they must repay the scholarship as if it were a loan.	如果不回去，就必须像偿还贷款一样偿还奖学金。


Medical-training programs in developing countries should also be considering how they can better direct future doctors toward meeting domestic needs.	发展中国家的医学训练项目也应该考虑如何更好地引导未来医生满足国内需求。


Students overwhelmingly come from affluent backgrounds, which often means they are from the biggest cities.	学生绝大多数出身富裕，这通常意味着他们来自大城市。


More should be recruited from rural areas – which often have the greatest shortages – and then be trained in the settings where they are most needed.	应该更多地从农村地区招生——那里的短缺问题常常最为严重——并且在最需要他们的环境中接受训练。


By broadening the geographical and socioeconomic talent base and identifying good candidates sooner, we could increase the likelihood that students will return to practice in their local communities.	通过扩大地理和社会经济人才基础、更快地遴选优秀申请者，我们能够提高学生返回家乡执业的可能性。


We all have something to gain from globally sustainable medical-training practices, which will ensure that all countries’ health-care needs are met.	全球性可持续医学训练有益于全人类，这能确保所有国家的医疗需求得到满足。


For developing countries there is no other way forward.	对发展中国家来说，没有第二条路可以走。


Fiscal Discipline and Educational Quality	财政纪律与教育质量


ANKARA – The world is moving into a post-industrial age in which manufacturing is becoming ever more complex and competition has become global.	安卡拉—世界正在进入后工业时代，制造业日益复杂，竞争日益全球化。


To succeed, countries increasingly need a highly skilled and educated workforce.	要想成功，一国日益需要高技能和教育程度的工作人口。


Therefore, raising the level of skills conferred by secondary schools has become an urgent priority for developing and developed countries alike.	因此，提升中学传授的技能水平就成为发展中和发达国家的紧要任务。


For me, the issue of education is no mere academic matter.	对我来说，教育问题并不只是个学问上的问题。


I was born into a family of nine children.	我出生在一个有九个孩子的家庭中。


My parents were illiterate, and none of my sisters attended school beyond the primary level.	我的父母亲是文盲，我的姐妹们也没上过初中。


However, in my family’s next generation, all of my nieces and nephews have a high-school diploma and most have attended university.	但是，在我家的下一代中，我所有的侄辈都拥有高中文凭，大部分还上了大学。


Improving the education system of a country with more than 16 million primary and secondary school students – more than the combined population of 20 European Union member states – poses considerable fiscal challenges.	改善一个小学生和中学生数量超过1,600万人的教育体系——比20个欧盟成员国加起来还要多——是一项艰巨的财政挑战。


So the first step is to create a sound macroeconomic basis for reform.	因此，第一步是建立扎实的改革的宏观经济基础。


For many years, high public debt and macroeconomic mismanagement forced Turkey to pay a huge interest-rate premium in international financial markets – money that might have otherwise been invested in schools.	多年来，公债高企和宏观经济管理失当迫使土耳其需要在国际金融市场上支付高昂的利率溢价——这笔钱本可以投资于学校。


However, since assuming office in 2003, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government has reduced the fiscal deficit as a share of GDP by nearly ten percentage points, from 10.8% in 2002 to 1% in 2013, and cut the public debt/GDP ratio from 74% in 2002 to 36.3% in 2013.	但是，自2003年执政以来，总理埃尔多安的政府将财政赤字占GDP的比重缩减了近十个百分点，从2002年的10. 8%降至2013年的1%，并将公债/GDP比率从2002年的74%降至2013年的36.


As a result, government interest payments as a share of tax revenues fell from 85.7% to 15.3% during this period.	结果，同期政府利息支出占税收收入之比从85. 7%降至15.


These fiscal improvements have freed up funds for sizable investments in education, without adding to public debt.	这些财政上的改善将资金解放出来用于大规模投资教育，而不必增加公共债务。


From 2002 to 2014, Turkey doubled the proportion of education spending in the total budget to 18% without hurting the country’s fiscal position.	从2002年到2014年，土耳其教育支出占总预算之比实现翻倍，达到了18%，财政状况并未受到影响。


Since 2003, this extra money has allowed the government to hire some 410,000 more teachers, add 205,000 classrooms, and distribute 1.8 billion free textbooks.	自2003年以来，这笔额外资金让政府增加了410,000位教师、205,000间教室，并提供了18亿份免费教材。


But to compete with the world’s economic powerhouses, like China, we also needed to improve the overall quality of our labor stock.	但要想与中国等世界经济强国竞争，我们还需要改善劳动力存量的总体质量。


From the 2002-03 academic year to 2012-13, gross schooling rates (which includes students whose age exceeds or falls short of the official age group) increased from 96.5% to 107.6% in primary education; 80.8% to 96.8% in secondary education; and 35.8% to 92.1% in higher education.	从2002—03学年到2012—13学年，小学毛入学率（包括年龄高于或低于官方年龄群体的学生）从96. 5%升至107.


Pupil-teacher ratios have also fallen.	学生-教师比率也有所下降。


In the 2002-03 school year, there were 28 students per teacher in primary education and 18 in secondary schools; by 2012-13, this had fallen to 20 and 16, respectively.	在2002—03学年，平均每28位小学生和18名中学生拥有一名教师； 到2012—13学年，这一比率分别降至20人和16人。


And in 2012, Turkey raised the minimum period of compulsory education to 12 years.	2012年，土耳其将义务教育最低年限提高到12年。


This is an important reform, given that the average schooling of people over 25 is only 6.5 years in Turkey, compared to an OECD average of more than 11.	这是一项重要的改革，因为土耳其25岁以上年龄段平均上学年龄只有6. 5年，而经合组织平均水平位11年。


Moreover, the government has improved educational opportunities.	此外，政府还改善了教育机会。


As part of the FATIH project to help underprivileged students, Turkey has allocated 1.4 billion lira ($665 million) in 2014 to equip its schools with broadband Internet and the latest information technology.	作为旨在帮助弱势学生的FATIH 工程的一部分，2014年土耳其投入14亿里拉（6,650万美元）用于为学校配置互联网宽带和最新信息技术。


Other initiatives, such as “Baba Beni Okula Gönder” (Daddy, Please Send Me to School) and “Haydi Kızlar Okula” (Girls, Let’s Go to School), have improved enrollment gender ratios, from 91.1 girls for every 100 boys in 2002, to 101.8 girls for every 100 boys in 2012.	其他措施，如“爸爸请让我上学”（Baba Beni Okula Gönder）和“闺女，上学去吧”（Haydi Kızlar Okula）等，改善了入学性别比，女生：男生之比从2002年的91. 1:100上升到2012年的101.


This is likely to improve female labor-force participation in Turkey, which is around 30% on average, but 72% for those with a university diploma.	8:100。 这有望改善土耳其的女性劳动力参与率——目前平均水平为30%左右，但有大学文凭者高达72%。


Given Turkey’s geographic size (twice that of Germany but with a similar-size population), it has been a challenge to ensure that all pupils, regardless of their location or socioeconomic background, receive a good education.	考虑到土耳其的地理规模（是德国的两倍大但人口相同），确保所有学生不论身居何处、社会经济地位如何都能获得良好的教育一直是一项挑战。


But one of Turkey’s most remarkable successes since 2003 has been to break the intolerable link between a child’s household circumstances and his or her chances to succeed in school.	但2003年以来土耳其最令人瞩目的成功之一便是打破了学生家庭条件与其获得优秀学业成绩的机会之间消极联系。


Consider that in 2003, the test scores of 28% of Turkish students could be explained by their socioeconomic standing – in other words, the poorer the pupil, the lower his or her PISA scores.	2003年，土耳其学生考试分数的28%可以归因于他们的社会经济地位——换句话说，越穷的学生，其PISA分数越低。


This was in line with the OECD average.	这与经合组织平均水平相符。


But the OECD’s 2012 report found that only 15% of lower test scores among Turkish students could be explained by their socioeconomic standing, a better outcome than the OECD average.	但经合组织的2012 年报告发现，土耳其学生的较低考试分数中只有15%可以归因于社会经济地位，优于经合组织平均水平。


Turkey is also narrowing the gap with OECD countries in terms of educational quality.	土耳其也在缩小其与经合组织国家在教育公平性方面的差距。


In 2006, Turkey scored 76 points lower than the OECD average in science exams and 74 points lower in math.	2006年，土耳其在科学方面的得分比经合组织平均分低76分，数学方面低74分。


By 2012, the gap had fallen to 38 points in sciences and 46 points in math.	2012年，差距缩小为科学38分，数学46分。


Given these achievements, it may be no coincidence that Turkey’s youth unemployment rate has also declined, from 25.3% in 2009 to 17.3% in January 2014, below the EU average of 22.8%.	考虑到这些成就，土耳其年轻人失业率也有所下降（从2009年的25. 3%降至2014年1月的17.


What is clear is that improving education and bolstering economic growth go hand in hand.	8%）或许并非偶然。 显然，改善教育和刺激经济增长是相辅相成的关系。


Of course, more needs to be done to realize Turkey’s human-development potential; but the past decade of educational reforms and their beneficial economic effects demonstrate that the foundations are being laid for rapid, sustainable, and inclusive growth.	当然，土耳其还需要做更多的事来实现其人力开发潜力； 但过去十年的教育改革及其带来的积极经济效应表明，土耳其正在为快速、可持续、包容性增长打下坚实基础。


Closing Africa’s Agricultural Gender Gap	结束非洲农业性别差距


SEATTLE – Africa’s GDP is now growing faster than any other continent’s. When many people think about the engines driving that growth, they imagine commodities like oil, gold, and cocoa, or maybe industries like banking and telecommunications.	西雅图—如今，非洲GDP增长比其他任何大洲都要快，许多人在思考推动增长的额引擎时，都会想到石油、黄金、可可这样的大宗商品，或者银行业和通信业等行业。


I think of a woman named Joyce Sandir.	我想到的是一位名叫乔伊斯·桑戴尔（Joyce Sandir）的女性。


Joyce is a farmer who grows bananas, vegetables, and maize on a small plot of land in rural Tanzania.	乔伊斯是一位农民，在坦桑尼亚农村地区的一小片土地上种植香蕉、蔬菜和玉米。


When I met her in 2012, she had just harvested her first crop of maize grown from a seed specifically adapted for Tanzania’s climate.	2012年我遇到她时，她刚刚收获了一批玉米，这批玉米是专门为坦桑尼亚的气候而开发出来的。


Even during a bad crop year that caused many of Joyce’s vegetables to wither and die, her maize crop flourished.	即使当年收成很坏，乔伊斯的蔬菜不是枯萎就是死去，但她的玉米收成很好。


Without it, her family might have risked going hungry.	要不是这批玉米，她的家庭有可能就得挨饿。


Instead, the maize harvest ensured that Joyce’s family had enough to eat – and even enough extra income for Joyce to pay her children’s school fees.	但玉米收成确保了乔伊斯家有足够的食物——甚至还有结余供她孩子上学。


As Joyce’s story demonstrates, agriculture is crucial to Africa’s future.	乔伊斯的故事表明，农业对非洲的未来在至关重要。


Farmers make up 70% of Africa’s workforce.	农民占非洲工作人口的70%。


They are the foundation of its economy, and the key to triggering its broader growth.	他们是经济的基础，也是推动更广的增长的关键。


Research shows that increasing agricultural productivity is the most effective way to reduce poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.	研究表明，提高农业生产率是减少撒哈拉以南非洲地区贫困最有效的方式。


In fact, agriculture offers the continent its best opportunity to turn a vicious cycle of poverty into a virtuous cycle of development.	事实上，农业是让非洲的贫困恶性���环变为发展良性循环的最佳机会。


That is why leaders and policymakers from across the continent have declared 2014 Africa’s Year of Agriculture and Food Security.	这就是全非洲的领导人和决策者将2014年定为非洲农业和食品安全年的原因。


Joyce’s story is relevant for another reason, too.	乔伊斯的故事之所以有关，还有另一个原因。


She is important to Africa’s future not only because she is a farmer, but also because she is a woman.	她对非洲的未来很重要，不仅因为她是农民，也因为她是女性。


At the Gates Foundation, I spend a lot of my time understanding the many ways that women and girls drive development forward: by investing in their children’s nutrition, basic health, and education – and also by providing farm labor.	在盖茨基金会，我花了很多时间用于理解各种女性和女孩推动发展前进的方式：投资于孩子的营养、基本健康和教育——以及提供农场劳动力。


What I am now learning is that if Africa hopes to spark an agricultural transformation, countries will first need to remove one of the main barriers holding the sector back: a pervasive gender gap.	我现在了解到，如果非洲想实现农业转型，非洲国家首先需要打消让农业部门落后的主要壁垒——普遍存在的性别差距。


This gap is not about the number of women farmers.	这一差距并非体现在女性农民数量上。


In fact, roughly half of Africa’s farmers are women.	事实上，大约一半的非洲农民是女性。


The gap is one of productivity.	这一差距是生产率方面的差距。


Across the continent, farms controlled by women tend to produce less per hectare than farms controlled by men.	在整个非洲，女性所控制的农场每英亩产量总是低于男性控制的农场。


The world has had evidence of this gender gap since at least 2011, but only limited data about its scope, shape, and causes.	至少从2011年开始，世界就看到了这一性别差距的迹象，但关于这一差距的规模哦、性质和原因的数据很少。


To help us better understand the problem, the World Bank and the ONE Campaign recently conducted an unprecedented analysis of the challenges facing women farmers.	为了帮助我们更好地理解这一问题，世界银行和ONE运动（ONE Campaign）最近做了一份前所未有的分析，研究了女性农民面临的挑战。


Their report highlights one stark fact from the start: The gender gap is real, and in some cases it is extreme.	研究报告从一开始就强调了一个尖锐的事实：性别差距是实实在在的，在某些情况下甚至非常极端。


When we compare male and female farmers with similar land sizes across similar settings, the productivity gap can be as high as 66%, as it is in Niger.	我们可以比较土地规模和各方面条件相近的男性和女性农民，他们的生产率差距可能高达66%（如尼日尔）。


Previously, experts believed that women’s farms produced less because women have less access to inputs like fertilizer, water, and even information.	此前，专家认为女性的农场之所以产量小，是因为女性不太容易获得肥料、水甚至信息等投入要素。


But we now know that the story is much more complicated. With the new data in hand, we can see that, surprisingly, the productivity gap persists even when women have equal access to inputs.	而通过新数据我们惊异地看到，生产率差距甚至在女性可以获得相同投入要素的情况下仍然存在。


The precise reasons vary from country to country – but many of them stem from entrenched cultural norms that prevent women from reaching their full potential.	其中的原因因国而异，但许多来自于阻止女性充分实现潜力的根深蒂固的文化规范。


For example, the report found that women face obstacles mobilizing the labor they need to help their farms flourish.	比如，研究报告发现，女性在动员让土地丰收所需的劳动力方面面临着障碍。


Women usually have more childcare and household responsibilities than men, which make it difficult for them to devote as much time to farm work, or even to supervise hired labor.	女性通常需要比男性承担更大的育儿和家务责任，这让她们难以投入同样多的时间用于农活，甚至连监工都无法完成。


The problem is compounded by the fact that women are also likely to have less income to hire laborers in the first place.	而女性从一开始所拥有的能够用于雇用劳动力的收入就较低，这一事实让问题更加严重了。


Fortunately, the new data do not just map the complexity and depth of the problem; they also point to concrete opportunities to develop gender-responsive policies that will help unlock the promise of all of Africa’s farmers.	幸运的是，新数据并不只是指出了问题的复杂性和深刻性； 它们还指明了切实的性别问题响应政策发展方向，有助于我们实现对所有非洲农民的承诺。


In some places, that may mean teaching agricultural extension workers how to make their messages more relevant to female audiences, or encouraging them to visit when women are most likely to be at home.	在一些地区，这意味着教授农业扩展工作者如何加强他们的传递的信息与女性听众的关系，或鼓励他们在女性最有可能在家的时间家访。


In other places, it may mean increasing women’s access to markets, or introducing labor-saving tools to help them get the highest yield from their land.	在一些地区，这意味着降低女性进入市场的难度，或引入劳动力节约工具帮助她们获得最大收成。


It may also require establishing community childcare centers, so that women farmers have the option to spend more time farming.	这也要求建立社区育儿中心，一边女性农民可以将更多时间用于务农。


In every case, it will require African policymakers to start recognizing women farmers as the essential economic partners that they are.	无论如何，非洲决策者都需要开始认识到女性农民是至关重要的经济伙伴。


This June, leaders from all over Africa will meet in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, to set the agenda for agricultural policy in the next decade.	今年6月，来自全非洲的领导人将聚首赤道几内亚首都马拉博，为下一个十年制定农业政策日程。