Even Latin America has a major innovative domestic e-commerce player (Mercado Libre) and a digital payments system (Mercado Pago).	甚至拉丁美洲也有了一个大型创新型国内电商（Mercado Libre）和一个数字支付系统（Mercado Pago）。


In mobile online payments systems, China is in the lead.	在移动在线支付系统方面，中国处于领先。


With much of the country’s population having shifted directly from cash to mobile online payments – skipping checks and credit cards – China’s payments systems are robust.	许多中国人已经从直接现金支付转向移动在线支付——绕过了支票和信用卡——中国的支付系统具有很强的鲁棒性。


Earlier this month on Singles’ Day, an annual festival of youth-oriented consumption that has become the single largest shopping event in the world, China’s leading online payment platform, Alipay, processed up to 256,000 payments per second, using a robust cloud computing architecture.	在本月早些时候的“光棍节”中——这是一个年轻人导向的年度消费节，已经成为全世界最大的购物节——中国最大的在线支付平台支付宝每秒钟用鲁棒的云计算设施处理256,000笔支付。


There is also impressive scope for expanding financial services – from credit assessments to asset management and insurance – on the Alipay platform, and its expansion into other Asian countries via partnerships is well underway.	支付宝平台的金融服务的扩张也令人瞩目——从信用评估到资产管理和保险，此外，它还通过正在顺利进行中的合作打入其他亚洲国家。


In the coming years, developed and developing economies will also have to work hard to shift toward more inclusive growth patterns.	在未来几年中，发达和发展中经济体还必须努力朝更加包容的增长模式转变。


Here, I anticipate that national governments may take a back seat to businesses, subnational governments, labor unions, and educational and non-profit institutions in driving progress, especially in places hit by political fragmentation and a backlash against the political establishment.	在这方面，我预测国家政府将落后于企业、次级政府、工会以及推动进步的教育和非营利机构，特别是在受政治分裂和反对政治建制派声浪影响的地区。


Such fragmentation is likely to intensify.	政治分裂有可能恶化。


Automation is set to sustain, and even accelerate, change on the demand side of labor markets, in areas ranging from manufacturing and logistics to medicine and law, while supply-side responses will be much slower.	自动化有可能将保持乃至加快劳动力市场需求侧的变化，从制造、物流到医药、法律都是如此，而供给侧的反应会慢得多。


As a result, even if workers gain stronger support during structural transitions (in the form of income support and retraining options), labor-market mismatches are likely to grow, sharpening inequality and contributing to further political and social polarization.	结果，即使工人在结构转型期间获得更大的支持（如收入支持和再培训选项），劳动力市场错配的情况仍有可能加剧，从而恶化不平等性，导致政治和社会进一步极化。


Nonetheless, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic.	尽管如此，有理由保持谨慎乐观。


For starters, there remains a broad consensus across the developed and emerging economies on the desirability of maintaining a relatively open global economy.	首先，对于必须保持相对开放的全球经济这一点，发达和新兴经济体之间仍有广泛共识。


The notable exception is the US, though it is unclear at this point whether President Donald Trump’s administration actually intends to retreat from international cooperation, or is merely positioning itself to renegotiate terms that are more favorable to the US.	美国是显著的例外，尽管总统特朗普的政府是真的想从国际合作退出，还是仅仅想重新谈判更加有利于美国的条件，现在还看清楚。


What does seem clear, at least for now, is that the US cannot be counted on to serve as a principal sponsor and architect of the evolving rules-based global system for fairly managing interdependence.	能够看清楚的是——至少从现在看——我们不能指望美国充当变化中的基于规则的全球体系的主要发起者和设计者，从而公平地管理相互依存性。


The situation is similar with regard to mitigating climate change.	减轻气候变化的局面类似。


The US is now the only country that is not committed to the Paris climate agreement, which has held despite the Trump administration’s withdrawal.	目前，美国是唯一一个不承认巴黎气候协定的国家。 但在特朗普政府退出的情况下，该协定依然有效。


Even within the US, cities, states, and businesses, as well as a host of civil-society organizations, have signaled a credible commitment to fulfilling America’s climate obligations, with or without the federal government.	即使在美国国内，市、州和企业，自己许多公民社会组织，都表现出对不管联邦政府承认与否，都要履行美国的气候义务的可信承诺。


Still, the world has a long way to go, as its dependence on coal remains high.	尽管如此，世界仍有很长一段路要走，因为其对煤炭的依赖仍然相当严重。


The Financial Times reports that peak demand for coal in India will come in about ten years, with modest growth between now and then.	据《金融时报》报道，印度煤炭需求将在大约十年后迎来高峰，在此之前，煤炭需求将保持温和增长。


While there is upside potential in this scenario, depending on more rapid cost reductions in green energy, the world is still years away from negative growth in carbon dioxide emissions.	这一情景固然有积极的潜力——取决于绿色能源成本更快的下降——但世界距离二氧化碳排放负增长仍有多年时间。


All of this suggests that the global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead.	所有这些都表明，未来几个月到几年全球经济将面临严峻挑战。


And looming in the background is a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous and increases the system’s vulnerability to destabilizing shocks.	而我们所处的环境是令市场十分紧张的债务高企以及系统日益容易受到破坏性冲击的影响。


Yet the baseline scenario in the short run seems to be one of continuity.	但短期内的基准情景似乎是趋势保持。


Economic power and influence will continue to shift from west to east, without any sudden change in the pattern of job, income, political, and social polarization, primarily in the developed countries, and with no obvious convulsions on the horizon.	经济力量和影响将继续西退东进，就业、收入、政治和社会极化的模式（主要是在发达国家）不会发生突然地改变，也看不到明显的混乱迹象。


Giddy Markets and Grim Politics	飘忽的市场和糟糕的政治


CAMBRIDGE – Economic growth worldwide picked up in 2017, and the best guess is that the global economy will perform strongly in 2018 as well.	发自剑桥——全球经济增长在2017年有所上扬，因此人们寄望2018年的经济也能表现强劲。


At the same time, a rising tide of populism and authoritarianism poses a risk to the stable democratic institutions that underlie long-term growth. And yet headlines seeming to portend political instability and chaos have not prevented stock markets from soaring.	与此同时，民粹主义和专制主义的兴起给实现长期增长所依赖的稳定民主体制带来了风险，但那些似乎预示着政治动荡和混乱的头条新闻报道却并未阻止股市的飙升。


What gives?	这是为什么？


First, the good news.	首先是好消息。


Surely the largest single factor in the synchronized global upswing is that the world economy is finally leaving behind the long shadow of the 2008 financial crisis.	全球同步增长的最大单一因素就是世界经济终于摆脱了2008年金融危机的阴影。


Part of today’s good fortune is payback for years of weak demand.	当前的一部分好光景来自于多年来需求疲软的反弹。


And the rebound is not over, with business investment finally picking up after a decade of slack, thereby laying a foundation for faster growth and higher productivity gains in the future.	而且这波反弹还未结束，企业投资在经历了十年的萧条之后终于回暖，为未来更快的增长和更高的生产效率提升奠定了基础。


True, economic growth in China is slowing somewhat as authorities belatedly try to contain a credit bubble, but many other emerging markets – notably including India – are set to grow faster this year.	诚然，由于当局试图遏制信贷泡沫，中国的经济增长有所放缓，但许多其他新兴市场——特别是印度——将在今年实现更加快速的增长。


Rising stock and housing markets may fuel inequality, but they also drive increased consumer spending.	不断上涨的股市和房地产市场可能会助长不平等状况，但也会推动消费者支出增加。


Investors and policy wonks are also cheered by the resilience of central bank independence in the major economies.	各主要经济体中央行独立性的恢复也令投资者和政策分析员们感到振奋。


US President Donald Trump has not only largely spared the Federal Reserve the not-so-tender mercies of his wee-hour tweets; he has also nominated highly qualified individuals to fill Fed vacancies.	美国总统特朗普不仅在自己时常出言不逊的推特中放过了美联储，还提名了高素质人才来填补其职位空缺。


Meanwhile, the German right has failed to pull the plug on European Central Bank policies that have helped prop up Italy, Spain, and Portugal, and the ECB remains by far the most respected and influential eurozone institution.	与此同时，德国的话语权也未能阻止意大利，西班牙和葡萄牙从欧洲中央银行政策中受益，欧洲央行迄今为止也仍然是最受尊崇且最具影响力的欧元区机构。


Elsewhere, things are pretty much the same.	其他地方的情况也是如此。


In the United Kingdom, British Prime Minister Theresa May, early in her tenure, once took a swipe at the Bank of England, but quickly retreated.	在英国，首相特蕾莎·梅在就任初期抨击了一下英格兰银行后就偃旗息鼓了。 正如穆罕默德·E·埃尔埃里安（Mohamed A.


As Mohamed A. El-Erian has noted, many investors regard central banks as “the only game in town,” and they are willing to overlook a lot of political noise as long as monetary-policy independence is upheld.	El-Erian）指出的那样，许多投资者认为中央银行是“唯一的选择”，只要货币政策独立能得到维护，其他政治噪音就是小意思而已。


But while politics is not, at least for now, impeding global growth nearly as much as one might have thought, the long-run costs of political upheaval could be far more serious.	但是尽管政治——至少目前为止——并未像与其那样阻碍全球经济增长，但是政治动荡的长期代价可能更加高昂。


First, post-2008 political divisiveness creates massive long-term policy uncertainty, as countries oscillate between governments of the left and the right.	首先，2008年以后的政治分歧造成了巨大的长期政策不确定性，因为各国都在左右两派政府之间摇摆不定。


For example, the recent US tax overhaul has been advertised as a surefire way to boost corporate spending on long-term investment projects.	例如，近期美国的税收改革已被广泛宣传为一种推动企业投资于长期投资项目的绝佳手段。


But will it live up to its billing if businesses fear that the legislation, passed by a thin partisan majority, will ultimately be reversed?	但如果企业担心这一勉强借助一个党派的微弱多数通过的立法最终会被扭转的话，它能不能长期有效呢？


Part of the case for trying to secure bipartisan agreement on major long-term policy initiatives is precisely to ensure stability.	试图确保两党就重大长期政策议案达成协议的一部分原因就是为了确保稳定。


And policy uncertainty in the United States is nothing compared to the UK, where businesses face the twin disruptions of Brexit and (potentially) a Labour government led by the far-left Jeremy Corbyn.	而美国的政策不确定性与英国相比就是小巫见大巫了。 英国企业面临的可是英国脱欧和（可能出现的）由极左派领导人杰里米·科宾（Jeremy Corbyn）所领导的工党政府的双重打击。


Harder to assess, but potentially far more insidious, is the erosion of public trust in core institutions in the advanced economies.	而更为难以评估但潜在风险更大的则是先进经济体中公众对核心机制信任度的逐渐流失。


Although economists have endless debates about whether culture or institutions lie at the root of economic performance, there is every reason to be concerned that the recent wave of populism is a threat to both.	虽然经济学家针对文化或制度是否决定经济表现的问题一直未有定论，但有理由担心最近的民粹主义浪潮对两者来说都是一种威胁。


Nowhere is this truer than in the US, where Trump has engaged in unrelenting attacks on institutions ranging from the mainstream media to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, not to mention adopting a rather cavalier attitude toward basic economic facts.	这个情况最严峻的莫过于美国了，特朗普持续不断地对美国主流媒体和联邦调查局等机构口诛笔伐，更别说对基本的经济事实都嗤之以鼻。


At the same time, the left seems eager to portray anyone who substantively disagrees with its proposals as an enemy of the people, helping fuel both economic illiteracy and a hollowing out of the center.	与此同时左派似乎一心要将任何对其政策建议持不同意见的人描绘为人民的敌人，一方面推动经济无知化，另一方面又在分化中间派。


Beyond existential risks, there are near-term risks.	除了上述存续性风险之外还存在一些近期的风险。


One, of course, is a potential sharp growth slowdown in China, which more than any other major economy in the world today seems vulnerable to a significant financial crisis.	当然，其中之一是中国经济增长速度的放缓——这个国家比当今世界其他任何主要经济体都更容易受到严重金融危机的冲击。


Perhaps the number one risk to the global economy in 2018, however, is anything that leads to a significant rise in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates.	但2018年全球经济所面临的头号风险或许是那些可能导致实际（去除通胀因素后）利率大幅上涨的因素。


Low interest rates and easy monetary policy have papered over a multitude of financial vulnerabilities around the world, from Italian and Japanese government debt to high corporate dollar debt in many emerging markets, and perhaps account for political support for trillion-dollar deficits in the US.	低利率和宽松的货币政策掩盖了全球各地的严重金融脆弱性——从意大利和日本的政府债务到许多新兴市场极高的企业美元债务——也许也可以解释美国数十亿美元赤字背后的政治支撑需求。


Admittedly, markets see little chance of any significant rise in global interest rates in 2018.	不可否认的是，2018年全球利率大幅上涨的可能性不大。


Even if the Fed raises rates another four times in 2018, other major central banks are unlikely to match it.	即使美联储2018年继续四次上调利率，其他主要央行也不太可能追随。


But market confidence that interest rates will remain low is hardly a guarantee.	但市场对利率维持低位的信心难以保证。


A plausible pickup in business investment in the US and northern Europe, combined with a sudden slowdown in Asian economies with surplus savings, could in principle produce an outsize rise in global rates, jeopardizing today’s low borrowing costs, frothy stock markets, and subdued volatility.	貌似合理的美国和北欧的商业投资提升再加上亚洲储蓄过剩经济体的突然放缓原则上可能导致全球利率大幅上涨，从而危及今天的低借贷成本，导致股市泡沫化和波动性减弱。


Then, suddenly, the economy’s seeming disconnect from politics might end, and not necessarily in a happy way.	那么经济与政治的脱节可能会在短时间内结束，但不一定会以一种快乐的方式。


The Danger in Today’s Good Economic News	今天的经济好消息中蕴藏着危险


WASHINGTON, DC – As 2018 begins, things are looking up for the global economy.	华盛顿—随着2018年的到来，全球经济形势向好。


Over the last six months, growth projections by official institutions like the International Monetary Fund, matched or even exceeded by private forecasts, have been adjusted upward.	在过去六个月里，国际货币基金组织（IMF）等官方机构的增长预测得到了私人预测的印证甚至被超越，并不断向上调整。


But not all of the news is good.	但并非所有消息都是好消息。


To be sure, there are plenty of positive indicators to inspire optimism.	诚然，很多积极信号让人感到乐观。


The eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing hit an all-time high last month, and even Greece’s economy is finally growing.	欧元制造业区采购经理人指数在上个月创出历史新高，就连希腊经济也终于开始增长。


In the United States, growth now appears likely to exceed the IMF’s October prediction of 2.3% for 2018.	在美国，增长有望超过IMF在10月份做出的2018年增长2. 3%的预测。


In the emerging world, China seems to have staved off the risk of a sharp slowdown: while its economy is no longer achieving double-digit growth, its increased size implies that, in absolute terms, today’s 7% annual rate exceeds the 10% rates of the past.	在新兴市场，中国似乎已经去除了急剧减速风险； 尽管中国经济不再能够实现两位数增长，但其日益扩大的规模意味着，从绝对量看，今天7%的年增长率也要超过过去的10%。


Turkey, for its part, posted 11% growth in the third quarter of 2017.	至于土耳其，2017年三季度实现11%的增长。


Even Brazil, which experienced negative growth in 2016, is likely to exceed the IMF’s forecast of 1.5% growth in 2018.	就连2016年出现负增长的巴西，也有望在2018年超过IMF所预测的1. 5%的增长率。


As the real economy strengthens, equity values – which, for a time, seemed disconnected from fundamentals – are increasingly being validated.	随着实体经济的强势，股票价值——一度看上去与基本面脱离——也日益得到印证。


The Financial Times Stock Exchange All-World Index rose by nearly 22% in 2017 – its best performance since the post-crisis rebound of 2009.	《金融时报》证券交易全球指数在2017年上涨近22%——是2009年危机后反弹以来的最佳表现。


As the growth pessimism of recent years fades, some of the warnings that have been made in recent years seem to have become outdated.	随着最近几年来的增长悲观论的式微，近几年中所出现过的一些警告也成为明日黄花。


Northwestern University’s Robert Gordon, for example, argued that the US economy was bound to slow down, because today’s technological innovations would not boost growth to the extent they had in the past.	比如，西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）认为美国经济一定会出现减速，因为今天的技术创新对增长的刺激作用不如过去那么大。


Harvard’s Lawrence H. Summers got a lot of attention for his argument that the world risked sliding toward “secular stagnation,” because the interest rate needed to bring desired investment in line with desired savings was below zero.	哈佛大学的劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）因为提出世界有可能滑向“长期停滞”的观点而广受关注，他的理由是带来与合意储蓄相对应的合意投资所需要的利率为负值。


Yet, while the zero lower bound no longer seems to be a binding constraint, there are potential causes for concern, one of which relates to debt levels.	但是，尽管零下限不再是一个约束，仍然存在很多值得担忧的理由，其中之一与债务水平有关。


With the advanced economies no longer needing to maintain extraordinary monetary policies, nominal interest rates are set to climb from their current historic lows.	发达经济体已不再需要保持非常规货币政策，名义利率将从近期的历史低点开始上升。


As that happens, high debt levels could become problematic, impeding growth by triggering disorderly deleveraging.	高企的债务水平也将随之成为问题，可能导致无序去杠杆进而制约增长。


That said, given low inflation, there is little reason to expect interest rates to rise sharply, and gradual monetary-policy normalization would not necessarily have negative effects on growth or inflation.	尽管如此，在通胀低迷的情况下，没有理由认为利率会急剧上升，而渐进式货币政策正常化未必会给增长或通胀带来负面影响。


But there is another potential obstacle in the path of sustained recovery: the long-term decline in productivity growth has not yet been reversed.	但在持续复苏之路上还有一直拦路虎：生产率的长期下降还没有得到逆转。


Instead, the current boom seems to be demand-led, with private consumption being the biggest driver, though private investment, too, is finally starting to rise.	相反，当前的繁荣似乎是需求推动，私人消费是第一推动力，尽管私人投资也终于开始起势。


These trends have been accompanied by solid employment growth, which is welcome news, but cannot last forever.	这些趋势甚至伴随着就业的稳步增长，这当然是积极信号，但无法永远保持。


In the longer run, economic performance and potential growth will depend on the supply side and, in particular, on a revival of productivity growth.	从长期看，经济表现和潜在增长取决于供给侧，特别是生产率增长的复苏。


Techno-optimists claim that technology will fuel the needed gains, as the lag between digital capabilities and their applications in the economy shortens.	技术乐观派说，技术将助推需要的进步，数字能力和及其在经济中的应用之间的时滞在缩短。


But it is too early to say, with any evidence-backed certainty, whether they or techno-pessimists like Gordon are right.	但现在还没有基于证据的确定性判断技术乐观派还是戈登这样的悲观派胜出。


There are convincing arguments on both sides, though we count ourselves as cautious techno-optimists.	双方都有令人信服的论据，不过我们自视为谨慎的技术乐观派。


What is not really up for debate is that inequality within countries is rising fast.	真正没有争议的是各国内部的不平等性在迅速加剧。


While individual countries show different levels of inequality, its rise has been evident almost everywhere, with income and wealth increasingly concentrated at the very top.	不同国家的不平等性各不相同，但几乎所有国家都出现了不平等性加剧的情况，收入和财富日益向最顶层集中。


This trend will accelerate as new technologies, regardless of how much productivity growth they generate, continue to increase the skill premium, shift income to frontier firms, and allow new types of near-monopoly, “winner-take-all” positions to develop on a global scale.	随着新技术——不管它们能带来多少生产率的提高——不断增加技能溢价，不断将利润向前沿企业转意思，不断导致新的准垄断“赢家通吃”局面扩大到全球规模，这一趋势还将加速。


Herein lies the biggest danger in today’s exuberant headlines about growth.	这就引出了今天增长繁荣中的最大危险。


Many believe that rapid growth can act as a virtual panacea for countries’ political and social woes, including the rise of populism and nationalism.	许多人相信高增长是国家解决政治和社会混乱局面的虚拟灵丹，包括民粹主义和民族主义。


But if the benefits of rapid growth accrue to the top 5% or 1%, social tensions are bound to rise.	但如果高增长的收益被顶层5%或1%攫取，社会紧张必然会加剧。


And the fact is that it will be difficult to develop policies that can reverse damaging political trends and promote more widely shared growth.	事实上，制定能逆转危险的政治趋势、促进更广泛共享的增长的政策将十分困难。


This is not to say that nothing can be done.	这并不是说我们束手无策。


On the contrary, devising solutions should be a high priority, with the policy debate centering on measures that would help to create truly inclusive economies.	相反，制定解决方案应该成为重点事项，政策争论要集中在能够创造真正的包容型经济的手段上。


One such measure would be broad-based access to affordable and quality education, including skills upgrading and retraining.	手段之一是普及平价品质教育，包括技能升级和再培训。


The development of regulatory frameworks that encourage competition would also help, as would limiting tax-base erosion.	鼓励竞争的发展和监管框架，以及阻止侵蚀税基的政策也有所助益。


Public research should be funded in a way that gives taxpayers a stake in profitable outcomes.	公共研究拨款应该让纳税人能够从可盈利的结果中获益。


Likewise, infrastructure investments should have explicit equity-related objectives.	类似地，基础设施投资应该具有明确的权益相关目标。


The goal should be to attack inequality on two fronts: ensuring that pre-tax incomes rise in a more inclusive fashion and strengthening the equalizing role of taxes and transfers.	应该从两个方面遏制不平等性：确保税前收入以更加包容的形式增加，以及强化和平等化税收和转移支付的作用。


Given the global nature of markets, many policies will require international cooperation to be effective.	考虑到市场的全球性，许多政策都需要国际合作才能产生效果。


With issues concerning international trade, investment, competition, and intellectual property rights increasingly linked, global approaches that can address them in a holistic way have become vital.	与国际贸易、投资、竞争和知识产权相关的问题联系日益密切，全面解决它们的全球方针也变得至关重要。


Failure to achieve greater inclusiveness – a difficult but attainable goal – would stoke social tensions and fuel already-resurgent nationalism, producing disruptions that would ultimately lead to losses for everyone.	如果不能实现更大的包容性——这是一个困难但可以实现的目标——将激发社会紧张，助长已经形成气候的民族主义，产生最终让所有人都受损的破坏。


Yet today’s good growth news risks obscuring that risk, as it threatens to weaken the will to make the needed changes, leaving economies to rely on trickle-down effects.	但今天的增长好消息有可能掩盖这一风险，因为它有可能削弱实现必要的变革的意愿，让经济只能仰仗涓滴效应。


Why Are Illiberal Democrats Popular?	为何反自由的民主会受欢迎？


BRUSSELS – The rise of “illiberal democracy” in Europe is one of the most baneful trends of our time.	布鲁塞尔—“反自由的民主”在欧洲崛起，这是现时代最邪恶的趋势之一。


These regimes are typically centered on a leader who concentrates power by overriding – and in some cases eliminating – institutional checks and balances.	这些政权常常以一位领导人为核心，他通过支配——有时甚至取消——制衡制度集中权力。


Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán represent three of the most visible manifestations of this phenomenon.	俄罗斯的普京、土耳其的埃尔多安和匈牙利的欧尔班是这一现象最为显著的三个例子。


But what is really noteworthy – and dangerous – is how these regimes have been able to retain popular support.	但真正值得注意——并且十分危险——的是这些政权是如何能够保持公共支持的。


Control over traditional media, like television, radio and newspapers, is of course one reason why these regimes maintain their electoral majorities.	控制电视、广播和报纸等传统媒体，当然是这些政权能够保持选举多数的原因之一。


But manipulation, or even outright control, of the media cannot explain the enduring popularity, borne out by opinion polls, of illiberal leaders.	但操纵，乃至赤裸裸地控制媒体，无法解释反自由领导人受欢迎现象的持久性（民调说明了这一点）。


The key reason for these leaders’ political success is that these regimes, despite positioning themselves as anti-Western, have followed the so-called Washington Consensus, which prescribes prudent macroeconomic policies and open markets.	这些领导人取得政治成功的关键原因是，这些政权尽管将自己定位为反西方，实际上遵循了所谓的华盛顿共识，即采取审慎的宏观经济政策和开放市场。


Russia under Putin is the poster child for this approach, with the government usually running budget surpluses and accumulating vast foreign-exchange reserves.	普京治下的俄罗斯是这一方针的模范，政府常常能够实现预算盈余，并积累了巨量外汇储备。


Hungary has also followed a prudent fiscal policy under Orbán; and Erdoğan has done the same in Turkey since coming to power.	欧尔班治下的匈牙利也采取了审慎的财政政策； 而埃尔多安自掌权以来，对土耳其也采取了同样的方针。


Public debt in all three countries is thus either already low or (as in Hungary) declining.	这三个国家的公共债务因此已经降得很低，或（如匈牙利）正在下降。


In two of these three cases, the regime’s liberal predecessors had lost credibility because they had led the country into a financial crisis.	在其中两个国家，政权的自由派前任因为让国家陷入金融危机而失去了信誉。


Illiberal strongmen have nonetheless accepted the basis of the Washington Consensus – that prudent macroeconomic policies deliver better economic performance in the long run – and have usually delegated macroeconomic management to apolitical experts.	反自由强人接受了华盛顿共识的基础——长期而言，审慎宏观政策能带来更好的经济表现——他们常常将宏观经济管理委托给与不参与政治的专家。


They have resisted the temptation to use short-term fiscal or monetary stimulus to increase their popularity, relying instead on identity politics to maintain electoral dominance.	他们抵挡住诱惑，不采取短期财政或货币刺激来提高支持率，而是依靠身份政治和来保持选举优势。


The longer-run result has been relatively solid economic performance – and relatively satisfied voters.	长期的结果是经济表现相对稳定，选民也感到相对满意。


This contrasts sharply with the approach of, say, Venezuela’s late strongman leader Hugo Chávez, who maintained popular support for 14 years by spending the proceeds of a long oil-price boom on generous social programs.	这与其他强人的方针形成了鲜明对比。 比如，已故的委内瑞拉领导人查韦斯用漫长的石油繁荣的收入来支撑慷慨的社会福利计划，以此来维持公共支持率。


Now, with oil prices down by roughly half since 2014 – and no fiscal cushion in place to sustain imports – Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, is confronting a catastrophic economic crisis and escalating popular unrest.	如今，石油价格较2014年下跌了大约一半，委内瑞拉再也没有现成的财政缓冲以维持进口，因此，查韦斯的继任者马杜罗正面临着一场灾难性的经济危机和日益升级的群众骚动。


Prudent policies thus amount to an efficient long-term strategy for regime preservation.	因此，审慎政策是政权维系的有效的长期策略。


Europe’s illiberal strongmen have recognized that if overspending leads to a financial crisis and the need to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund, their days in power will be numbered.	欧洲的反自由强人们认识到，如果挥霍无度导致金融危机，需要国际货币基金组织（IMF）的援助，他们掌权的日子也就时日无多了。


Prudent macroeconomic policies support growth, but they can work only if the economy remains relatively free.	审慎的宏观经济政策支持了增长，但它们只有在经济保持相对自由的情况下才会有效。


Until now, neither Putin nor Erdoğan have matched their nationalist rhetoric with protectionist policies.	到目前为止，普京和埃尔多安都没有将他们的民族主义言辞和保护主义政策对应起来。


On the contrary, Putin’s Russia joined the World Trade Organization; and Erdoğan has never called into question Turkey’s customs union with the European Union, even though bilateral relations with the EU have gone from bad to worse.	相反，普京的俄罗斯加入了世界贸易组织，而埃尔多安也从未质疑土耳其与欧盟的关税同盟，即使土耳其与欧盟的关系越来越恶化。


The longer-term challenge for strongmen is to keep their illiberal political regimes economically liberal.	对强人们来说，长期的挑战是保持他们的反自由政治政权的经济自由。


Over time, the temptation to hand over control of a growing share of the economy to friends and family becomes stronger, and corruption tends to increase, as the main game in town becomes developing political connections and currying favor with the regime.	随着时间的推移，将越来越大的经济份额交给朋友和家庭控制的诱惑会越来越强，腐败也会跟着增加，因为主要矛盾变成了发展政治关系、讨好体制。


When this happens, growth is bound to decline.	到了这一步，增长就必然会开始下降。


This long-run threat is now most evident in Russia.	目前，这一长期威胁在俄罗斯最为明显。


Putin happened to come to power at a time when oil prices began rising from a historic low.	普京掌权正逢石油价格从历史低点开始上涨。


It was thus not surprising that Russia could grow strongly during the ensuing commodity super-cycle, which ended only recently.	因此，俄罗斯能够在随后的大宗商品超级周期中保持强劲增长不足为奇。 而最近，商品超级周期已经结束。


Macroeconomic management during the oil-price boom had been prudent enough to allow the regime to withstand the recent fall in oil prices.	石油价格繁荣期的宏观经济管理足够审慎，让普京政权能够抵挡最近的石油价格下滑。


But now, nearly three years after the end of the commodity super-cycle, the outlook for Russia is bleak.	但如今，大宗商品周期超级周期已经结束了近三年，俄罗斯的前景看上去黯淡无光。 生活水平陷入了停滞；


Living standards have stagnated; and the economy’s potential growth rate is widely estimated to be just 1.5% – a level implying that Russia will remain permanently poorer than the rest of Europe.	经济的潜在增长率人们广泛估计只有1. 5%——这意味着俄罗斯将一直比欧洲其他国家更穷。


Turkey might have reached a similar turning point.	土耳其可能也已经抵达了类似的转折点。


Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) inherited an economy that was rebounding from a deep financial crisis and had substantial growth potential, owing to ongoing urbanization and gains in the population’s educational level.	埃尔多安的正义与发展党（AKP）接手的经济从深度金融危机中反弹，拜持续的城市化和人口教育水平提高所赐，土耳其经济具有巨大的增长潜力。


Until recently, the AKP’s government limited its interference to the domestic side of the economy, such as government procurement and infrastructure spending.	直到最近，AKP政府的干预都局限在国内经济事务上，比如政府采购和基础设施支出。


But, after last year’s botched military coup, the regime has empowered itself to seize businesses owned by those accused of sympathizing with the so-called Gülenist movement, which Erdoğan accuses of having masterminded the coup attempt.	但在去年的未遂军事政变后，埃尔多安政权授权给自己没收由被控同情所谓的居伦运动（Gülenist movement）的人所拥有的企业。 埃尔多安指控居伦运动策划了政变。


Hundreds of businesses have already been seized and placed under the administration of Erdoğan’s close associates.	已有数百家企业被没收，划归埃尔多安亲信管理。


If this continues, entrepreneurs will stop investing, and growth will falter.	如果这一趋势继续，企业家将停止投资，增长也将停滞。


The problem is that once an illiberal regime has started down this road, it cannot easily re-establish a credible commitment to respect property rights, because the institutions that ensure this in liberal democracies, like an independent judiciary and a professional civil service, no longer exist.	问题在于，一旦反自由政权开始走这条路，就难以重新做出可信的尊重产权的承诺，因为在反自由的民主中确保这一点的制度——比如司法独立和专业公务员队伍——都已不复存在。


Today’s European strongmen have retained popular support by maintaining the relative economic freedom on which long-term prosperity depends.	今天的欧洲强人们通过保持长期繁荣所需要的相对经济自由来维持群众支持。


But as these regimes become increasingly authoritarian, their ability to keep voters happy is becoming more and more doubtful.	但随着这些政权越来越极权，他们取悦选民的能力也变得越来越可疑。


How Economic Populism Works	经济民粹主义是如何运作的？


SANTIAGO – Now that populists are coming to power in the West, a conflict over the intellectual ownership of their approach is brewing.	圣地亚哥——现在民粹主义者正在西方掌权，同时在酝酿的还有相关策略的知识产权冲突。


Writers like John Judis claim that nineteenth-century Americans invented political populism, with its anti-elitist stance and inflammatory rhetoric.	像约翰·朱迪斯这样的作家称十九世纪美国人发明了政治民粹主义，其特点是反精英立场和煽动性言论。


Argentines, who gave the world über-populist Juan Domingo Perón, or Brazilians, who brought us Getúlio Vargas, might beg to differ.	诞生过超级民粹主义者胡安·多明戈·庇隆的阿根廷和热图利奥·瓦加斯的巴西或许对此不敢苟同。


Yet there can be no disagreement that Latin Americans have been the longest and best practitioners of economic populism.	但没人不赞成拉美人是经济民粹主义最出色、也最长期的奉行者。


In the twentieth century, Perón and Vargas, plus Alan García in Perú (at least during his first term), Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and Salvador Allende in Chile, and many others, engaged in trade protectionism, ran large budget deficits, overheated their economies, allowed inflation to rise, and eventually suffered currency crises.	20世纪，庇隆和瓦加斯，再加上秘鲁的阿兰·加西亚（至少在他的首个任期）、尼加拉瓜的丹尼尔·奥尔特加以及智利的萨尔瓦多·阿连德，还有其他很多人都奉行贸易保护主义，从而催生大量预算赤字，导致经济过热，容忍通胀上升并最终引发了目前的货币危机。


In recent years, Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela took these policies to new lows.	近年来，委内瑞拉的乌戈·查韦斯和尼古拉斯·马杜罗将上述政策引向了新低。


What should the rich world, now undergoing its own bout of economic populism, learn from Latin America’s experience?	正在陷入国内经济民粹主义的富裕世界应当从拉美经历中吸取哪些教训？


Make no mistake: judging by the track record of its establishment pundits, the rich world needs some lessons.	不要搞错：从体制专家的过往记录判断，富裕国家需要一些教训。


In Britain, Brexit opponents insisted that if voters decided to leave the European Union, a recession, if not a full-blown economic crisis, would be inevitable.	在英国，退欧反对者坚称如果选民决意要离开欧盟，那么即使不爆发全面经济危机，陷入到经济衰退也是不可避免的。


After the referendum, the pound depreciated some, but nothing much else happened.	公投结束后，英镑有所贬值，但其他不利情况似乎没有怎么发生。


Today, the British economy continues to grow.	今天，英国经济继续增长。


In the United States, academic economists repeatedly warned that Trump’s economic plans were little short of lunacy, and in the aftermath of his shocking election victory, some prophesied immediate economic catastrophe.	在美国，经济学者一再警告特朗普经济计划近乎愚蠢，在他令人震惊地赢得大选之后，有些人预言经济灾难近在咫尺。


Since then, the stock market has reached record heights, commodity prices have recovered, and forecasts of US economic growth keep rising.	从那以后，股票市场已经达到创记录的高位，商品价格已经复苏，对美国经济增长的预测持续上升。


Have the pundits been smoking something?	专家们是否在胡言乱语？


Or have Trump and pro-Brexit leader Nigel Farage abrogated the principles of introductory macroeconomics?	还是特朗普和英国退欧领导人物法拉奇废除了宏观经济学原则？


Nothing of the sort.	实际情况并非如此。


But to understand the effects of populist policies, one must first understand their logic.	但人们必须先了解背后的逻辑，才能真正了解民粹主义政策。


In a classic paper, Sebastian Edwards of UCLA and the late Rudiger Dornbusch of MIT define economic populism as “an approach to economics that emphasizes growth and income redistribution and deemphasizes the risks of inflation and deficit finance, external constraints, and the reaction of economic agents to aggressive nonmarket policies.”	在一篇经典的论文中，加州大学洛杉矶分校的塞巴斯蒂安·爱德华兹和麻省理工大学已故学者鲁德格·多恩布施将经济民粹主义定义为“强调增长和收入再分配的经济学法则，但这种方法轻视通胀和赤字融资风险、外部制约因素以及经济因素对激进非市场政策的反应。


They add that populist approaches “do ultimately fail,” not because conservative economics is better, but as “the result of unsustainable policies.”	”他们补充说民粹主义策略“最终会失败”，但这不是因为保守经济学更好，而是“民粹主义政策不可持续。 ”


“Ultimately” can be a very long time.	“最终”可能需要很长时间。


Populist policies are called that because they are popular.	恰恰因为具备民意基础才被称为民粹主义政策。


And they are popular because they work – at least for a while.	这些政策受欢迎是因为它们能起作用——至少在一段时间内。


A sizeable fiscal stimulus in a sluggish economy produces a pickup in growth and job creation.	在经济低迷期推行大规模财政刺激可以加速增长和创造就业机会。


If financial markets turn bullish (as they often do), the exchange rate appreciates, quelling nascent inflationary pressures and making it cheaper to import.	如果金融市场逐渐看涨（金融市场常常上涨），那么汇率升值，压制新生通胀压力并压低进口价格。


And, as Argentine economist and Columbia University professor Guillermo Calvo has long argued, precisely because they are unsustainable, populist policies cause people to shift spending from the uncertain future to the present, when the going is good.	而且，就像阿根廷经济学家兼哥伦比亚大学教授吉列尔莫·卡尔沃一直坚持的那样，恰恰因为民粹主义政策不可持续，才会导致人们将未来的消费转移到现在，在情况尚好的时候及时行乐。


This reinforces the expansionary impact of the stimulus, which is particularly strong under fixed exchange rates.	这进一步强化了刺激政策的影响，这种影响在固定汇率下尤其强劲。


So, eurozone countries: beware!	因此欧元区国家一定要提高警惕！


With consumption, credit, and employment booming and asset prices sky-high, a warm and fuzzy feeling of prosperity permeates society.	在消费、信贷、就业蓬勃发展和资产价格高涨的情况下，温暖而朦胧的繁荣感渗透着社会。


Populist leaders feel vindicated, and they are not shy about claiming credit.	民粹主义领袖被证明正确，而他们绝不会羞于领功。


Their approval rating can only go up – and it does.	他们的支持率只会一路上升。


Soon, teetotalers begin to warn that debt is accumulating too quickly, credit quality is deteriorating, inflationary pressures are incubating, and an overvalued exchange rate is doing lasting harm to exporters.	很快，禁酒主义者开始警告债务累积速度过快、信贷质量恶化、通胀压力上升、高估的汇率正在对出口企业造成长期影响。


But the music is too loud and the dancing too lively, so no one listens to the warnings.	但音乐声太大、舞姿眼花缭乱，因此没有人听到这些警告。


How long can the party go on?	派对能持续多久？


One thing we know from the Latin American episodes is that the answer depends, first of all, on initial conditions.	拉美故事告诉我们要看具体情况，其中以初始条件最为重要。


Most industrial economies have grown little since the financial crisis.	多数工业经济体自金融危机以来几乎没有任何增长。


Deflation, not inflation, has been the problem.	最常见的问题是通缩而非通胀。


Yes, the unemployment rate has dropped considerably in the US.	是的，美国失业率大幅下降。


But after so many shocks and so much technological change over the last decade, there is considerable uncertainty about how much unused capacity remains and where the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) lies.	但在过去十年经历了这么多冲击和技术变革之后，人们很难确定尚未使用的力量究竟有多少，以及不加速通胀的就业率(NAIRU) 在什么地方。


It could well be that the likes of Trump find that they can stimulate the economy for quite a while before obvious imbalances emerge.	特朗普之流很可能发现他们可以在很长一段时间内刺激经济，直到出现明显的不平衡。


The other thing we have learned is that debt, both public and private, does become a constraint.	另一个教训是无论公共或私人债务都会起到限制作用。


But when and how depends crucially on what kind of debt it is.	但这种作用何时、以何种方式体现却需要取决于债务类型。


Today, advanced economies borrow in their own currencies at near-zero (and sometimes negative) interest rates.	今天，先进经济体以接近于零（甚至有时为负）的利率借贷本币债务。


Even if the starting point is a high debt-to-GDP ratio, it can be a long time before growing debt triggers an emergency.	即使开始时债务占GDP比率已经很高，但仍有可能需要很长时间债务增长才能触发紧急状况。


Just ask the Japanese.	类似的情况日本人曾经经历过。


What happens when financial markets finally get cold feet and stop lending?	如果金融市场最终退缩并停止借贷将会发生什么情况？


Well, as the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman was at pains to demonstrate in a recent paper, an economy with flexible exchange rates and debt denominated in domestic currency will expand, not contract, in response to a foreign deleveraging shock.	其实，就像诺贝尔奖得主经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼在最近一篇论文中所描述的那样，面对国外去杠杆化冲击，一个汇率灵活、债务以本币计价的经济体非但不会收缩，反而会扩张。


(Of course, Krugman was arguing for fiscal expansion under a Democratic president, but the point still stands.)	（当然，克鲁格曼当时是在民主党总统治下争取财政扩张政策，但个中道理其实相同。


Not even then do you get an immediate crisis.	）即便如此，危机也不会即刻爆发。


In 1953, Perón sent a message to Chilean president Carlos Ibáñez, a fellow army general.	1953年，庇隆送信给同为军队将领的智利总统卡洛斯·伊巴涅斯。


“My dear friend: give the people, especially the workers, all that is possible,” he wrote.	“我亲爱的朋友：给予民众、尤其是劳动者，一切可能的好处，”他写道。


“There is nothing more elastic than the economy, which everyone fears so much because no one understands it.”	“没有什么比经济更富于弹性，人人都害怕经济是因为他们无知。


Trump, should he come to think about it, might stumble to the same conclusion.	”如果特朗普有时间思考，他也可能得出同样的结论。


Anti-populists in the US, the UK, and elsewhere must come to terms with the reality that bad policies pay off, both economically and politically, long before they become toxic.	美国、英国和其他国家的反民粹主义者必须接受这样一个现实：即不良政策在毒害经济前，或许会在很长时间内改善经济和政治情况。


Yes, the excessive private and public debt, the loss of export capacity, and the weakening of institutions harm the economy (and the polity) – but only in the long run.	是的，过度的私人和公共债务、出口能力丧失、体制削弱有损于经济（和政治）——但只有经过很长时间才能体现损害结果。


If critics do not understand that and act accordingly, populists will have as long (and destructive) a run in the rich countries as they once had in Latin America.	如果批评者不理解这一点并采取相应行动，民粹主义者在富裕国家的机会就会像曾经在拉丁美洲一样漫长（且具有破坏性）。


Economics and American National Security	经济与美国国家安全


CAMBRIDGE – The National Security Strategy released by the White House earlier this month differs from the previous congressionally mandated strategies that have been prepared every four years.	发自剑桥——白宫在本月早些时候发布的《国家安全战略》跟以前国会委任每四年制定一次的战略有所不同。


The 2017 NSS is different because it emphasizes the role of the economy: “Economic security is national security,” the new NSS avers.	而这份2017年版报告的差异之处在于强调了经济的作用，正如其内文所指出的那样：“经济安全就是国家安全”。


Much of the report is of course devoted to traditional aspects of national security: military budgets, alliances, and dealing with countries like Russia and China, which the new NSS calls “strategic competitors” (rather than adversaries). But the growth of the domestic economy, the role of international trade, and America’s new positive energy position also receive substantial attention.	报告的大部分内容都是与传统国家安全事务有关：军事预算，联盟以及如何与俄罗斯和中国这类被新报告称之为“战略竞争者”（而非敌手）的国家打交道，同时国内经济的增长，国际贸易的作用以及美国的新优势能源地位也受到了极大关注。


President Donald Trump’s administration rightly points to its regulatory reforms and its recently enacted tax legislation as strategies for increasing economic growth.	特朗普政府将其监管改革和最近制定的税收立法作为增加经济增长战略是正确的做法。


A bigger economy provides the resources to build stronger military capabilities.	因为只有一个更庞大的经济体才能提供资源去建设更为强大的军事实力。


But that economic growth can translate into more effective national defense only if Congress enacts future increases in the defense budget, targeting those areas that are in greatest need of expansion.	但只有国会在未来增加国防预算，把目标锁定在那些最需要扩张的领域之时，经济增长才会转化为更有效的国防力量。


Because of the sequestration provision of the Budget Control Act of 2011, the defense budget has been subject to across-the-board cuts that will reduce defense outlays to 3% of GDP in 2021, the lowest share of GDP since before World War II.	在2011年《预算控制法》的暂时财政封存条款下，国防预算一直在全面削减，并计划在2021年将国防支出降至相当于GDP3％的水平，也是二战以来的最低比率。


The Congressional Budget Office projects that defense outlays, relative to GDP, will continue to decline to just 2.7% in 2027.	国会预算办公室预测以上比率会在2027年继续下降到2. 7％。


Bringing that up to 5% of GDP in 2027 would add more than $600 billion to total government spending that year.	而如果想在2027年将此比率提高到5％的话，该年的政府总支出将增加6000多亿美元。


The NSS’s proposals for dealing with foreign trade combine some valuable initiatives with a false analysis of the causes of the United States’ trade deficit.	《国家安全战略》中关于对外贸易的建议案则把一些有价值的动议与对美国贸易逆差原因的错误分析结合起来。


“[T]rading partners and international institutions can do more to address trade imbalances,” the NSS asserts. That is wrong.	报告称“合作伙伴和国际机构可以发挥更大作用以解决贸易不平衡问题”，但这个说法是错误的。


Basic economics tells us that the US trade deficit reflects the aggregate levels of domestic saving and investment.	基础经济学告诉我们美国的贸易逆差其实反映了其国内储蓄和投资的总量。


More specifically, the size of the US trade deficit – imports minus exports – equals excess of US investment over US national saving.	具体来说美国贸易逆差的规模（进口量减去出口量）等于美国投资超出美国国民储蓄的规模。


Because Americans spend more than they produce, they must import more than they export.	由于美国人的消费多于生产，因此进口必然多于出口。


So, to reduce the trade deficit, households, businesses, and governments must increase their saving – obviously the preferred solution – or invest less.	如果要减少贸易赤字，家庭，企业和政府都必须增加储蓄——这显然是首选解决方案——或是减少投资。


But the NSS is certainly correct in noting that foreign governments hurt American interests by promoting and condoning the theft of US intellectual property.	但在指出外国政府通过推动和纵容盗窃美国知识产权行为来伤害美国利益方面，报告是正确的。


At a summit meeting in 2013 at the Sunnylands retreat in California, President Barack Obama showed China’s President Xi Jinping the evidence that members of the Chinese military had been stealing industrial technology.	奥巴马总统就曾在2013年加州桑尼兰德举行的首脑会议上向中国国家主席习近平出示过中国军方成员盗窃工业技术的证据。


The Chinese accepted the evidence, agreed that stealing industrial technology was different from other forms of espionage, and said that the Chinese government would not assist in such theft in the future.	中方接受了这一证据，也同意盗窃工业技术与其他形式的间谍活动是不一样的并表示中国政府未来不会协助这类盗窃活动。


Since that is not enough to stop other Chinese theft of US civilian and military technology, the new NSS rightly stresses that the US government will take further steps to stop it.	但这还不足以阻止其他中国人盗用美国的民用和军事技术，因此新《国家安全战略》也有正当理由去强调美国政府会采取进一步的措施加以制止。


When it turns to specific trade policies, the NSS emphasizes that the US will seek to “break down trade barriers and provide Americans with opportunities to increase their exports.”	在谈到具体的贸易政策时，《国家安全战略》重点提出美国将设法“打破贸易壁垒并为美国人提供机会以增加出口”。


This emphasis on increasing exports, rather than reducing imports, is a welcome feature.	这种强调增加出口而非减少进口的做法是值得欢迎的。


Trade barriers erected by foreign governments reduce the ability of US firms to obtain the real income benefits from exporting products made in America.	外国政府建立的贸易壁垒确实降低了美国企业从美国制出口产品中取得实际收益的能力。


But the report also criticizes a variety of other unfair policies pursued by China and other countries, without distinguishing between those that hurt American interests and those that, though “unfair,” actually help Americans.	报告还批评了中国及其他国家所采取的其他各类不公平政策，却并未对那些伤害美国利益的政策和那些虽然“不公平”但实际在帮助美国人的政策加以区分。


Here’s the list: “Other countries have used dumping, discriminatory non-tariff barriers, forced technology transfers, noneconomic capacity, industrial subsidies, and other support from governments and state-owned enterprises to gain economic advantages.”	以下是报告拉出的清单：“其他国家利用倾销，歧视性非关税壁垒，强制技术转让，非经济势力，工业补贴以及其他来自政府和国有企业的支持来获取经济优势。 ”


Non-tariff barriers to US exports clearly hurt US firms without doing anything to help US households.	针对美国出口产品的非关税壁垒显然伤害了美国企业，也对美国家庭无所裨益。


The same is true of forced technology transfers, although the Chinese position is that American firms that want to operate in China voluntarily agree to transfer technology in exchange for the right to produce and sell in China.	强制性技术转让也是如此，但中国的立场其实是希望在中国经营的美国企业自愿同意转让技术以换取在中国生产和销售的权利。


Dumping – selling products at prices that are lower than the cost of production – clearly helps American consumers, even though it hurts American firms.	倾销——以低于生产成本的价格销售产品——虽然伤害了美国企业，但对美国消费者有利。


But that is not different from a technological development that allows some US firms to produce more cheaply, thus helping American consumers and hurting other US producers.	这其实与技术发展没什么不同，因为这使得一些美国公司能够以更低廉的成本进行生产，从而在有利于美国消费者的同时打击其他美国生产者。


Although some economic textbooks claim that dumping by foreigners can force domestic producers to go out of business so that the foreign producer can then raise its price, there is no evidence of such behavior actually occurring in practice.	虽然一些经济学教科书声称外国倾销行为会迫使国内生产者倒闭以便随后提价，但实际上并无证据表明这种行为确实有发生。


The Chinese are still maintaining excess capacity in some state-owned industries, leading to export sales at money-losing prices.	中国一些国有企业仍然处于产能过剩阶段，导致出口销售价格低于成本。


Like dumping, that, together with explicit industrial subsidies, is an “unfair” policy that nonetheless actually helps American consumers.	但就像倾销或者明目张胆的工业补贴一样，这是一种“不公平”但实际上却有利于美国消费者的政策。


Looking ahead, the US government should focus on combating foreign governments’ trade policies – such as technology theft, non-tariff barriers to US exports, and forced technology transfers – that hurt American firms without any offsetting benefits to American consumers.	展望未来，美国政府应该集中精力打击外国政府的某些贸易政策，比如技术盗窃，对美国出口的非关税壁垒以及强制技术转让等，这些政策伤害了美国企业，也没有转而为美国消费者带来任何利益。


As an economist, I am pleased that the NSS has given substantial attention to the economic aspects of US national security. I hope that this emphasis leads to better domestic and trade policies.	作为一名经济学家，我很高兴新《国家安全战略》对美国国家安全的经济方面给予了很大的关注，也希望这种重视能够带来更好的国内和贸易政策。


The Economists Who Stole Christmas	偷走圣诞节的经济学家


ATHENS – To welcome the New Year with a cheeky take on the clash of economic ideologies, how might opposing camps’ representatives view Christmas presents?	雅典—厚着脸皮用经济思想间的冲突来欢迎新年，理念相左的阵营代表会如何看待圣诞礼物？


Levity aside, the answer reveals the pompousness and vacuity of each and every economic theory.	若不嫌轻薄的话，我的答案能够揭露每种经济理论的傲慢和虚无。


Neoclassicists: Given their view of individuals as utility-maximizing algorithms, and their obsession with a paradigm of purely utility-driven transactions, neoclassical economists can see no point in such a fundamentally inefficient form of exchange as Christmas gift-giving.	新古典学派：他们认为个体秉持算计效用最大化算术，顽固地认为交易完全由效用驱动。 新古典派经济学家对于圣诞节礼物这种从根本上毫无效率可言的交换方式是无法理解的。


When Jill receives a present from Jack that cost him $X, but which gives her less utility than she would gain from commodity Y, which retails for $Y (that is less than or equal to $X), Jill is forced either to accept this utility loss or to undertake the costly and usually imperfect business of exchanging Jack’s gift for Y. Either way, there is a deadweight loss involved.	吉尔收到杰克用X美元买的礼物，但这个礼物给他带来的效用不如零售价Y美元（不多于X美元）的商品Y，吉尔被迫接受效用损失，或者作出一宗不划算、通常也不完美的交易：用杰克的礼物换取Y。 无论如何，存在净损失。


In this sense, the only efficient gift is an envelope of cash.	从这个角度看，唯一有效率的礼物是现金红包。


But, because Christmas is about exchanging gifts, as opposed to one-sided offerings, what would be the purpose in Jack and Jill exchanging envelopes of cash?	但圣诞节是交换礼物，而不是单向的给予的节日，杰克和吉尔交换红包意义何在呢？


If they contain the same amounts, the exercise is pointless.	如果他们的红包的数额一样，那么交换礼物就毫无意义。


If not, the exchange is embarrassing to the person who has given less and can damage Jack and Jill’s relationship irreparably.	如果数额不一样，那么收到数额较少的红包的人就会感到尴尬，给杰克和吉尔的关系造成不可修复的伤害。


The neoclassicist thus endorses the Scrooge hypothesis: the best gift is no gift.	因此，新古典学派支持吝啬鬼假说：最好的礼物就是没有礼物。


Keynesians: To prevent recessions from turning into depressions, a fall in aggregate demand must be reversed through increased investment, which requires that entrepreneurs believe that increased consumption will mop up the additional output that new investments will bring about.	凯恩斯学派：为了阻止衰退演变为萧条，必须通过增加投资扭转总需求颓势，而增加投资需要企业家相信消费的增加能够“吃掉”新投资所产生的增加的产出。


The neoclassical elimination of Christmas gift exchange, or even the containment of Christmas largesse, would be disastrous during recessionary periods.	新古典学派取消圣诞礼物交换，甚至只是节制圣诞大派送的做法，在衰退时期不啻一场灾难。


Indeed, Keynesians might go so far as to argue that it is the government’s job to encourage gift exchanges (as long as the gifts are purchased, rather than handcrafted or home produced), and even to subsidize gift giving by reducing sales taxes during the holiday season.	事实上，凯恩斯学派甚至会更进一步，认为政府有责任鼓励交换礼物（只要礼物是买来的，而不是自己动手做或家里现成的），甚至应该通过在节日期间降低销售税来补贴馈赠礼物。


And why stop at just one holiday season?	然而又为什么只在一个节假日期间这么做呢？


During recessionary times, two or three Christmases might be advisable (preferably spaced out during the year).	在衰退时期，大可以建议来两三次圣诞假期（最好扩大到一整年）。


But Keynesians also stress the importance of reining in the government deficit, as well as overall consumption, when the economy is booming.	但凯恩斯学派也强调在经济繁荣期克制政府赤字以及总消费的重要性。


To that end, they might recommend a special gift or sales tax during the festive season once growth has recovered, or even canceling Christmas when the pace of GDP growth exceeds that consistent with full employment.	在这方面，他们可能会建议，一旦增长恢复，应该在节假日期间征收特别礼品或销售税，甚至在GDP增长速度超过充分就业状态所对应的水平时取消圣诞节。


Monetarists: Convinced that the money supply should be the government’s sole economic-policy tool, and that it should be used solely to maintain price stability through equilibration of the money supply vis-á-vis aggregate production, the central bank should gradually increase nominal interest rates once summer ends and reduce them sharply every January.	货币主义者：相信货币供给应该是政府唯一的经济政策工具，并且只能用来维持物价稳定（通过让货币供给与总产出水平相适应实现），央行应该在夏天结束后逐步提高名义利率，而在每年1月大幅削减名义利率。


The changes in nominal interest rates they recommend depend on the central bank’s inflation target and the economy’s underlying real interest rate, and must reflect the rates necessary to keep the pace of change in consumption demand and large retailers’ inventories balanced.	建议的名义利率变化幅度取决于央行的通胀目标和经济的基础真实利率，并且必须反映保持消费需求和大零售商存货水平的变化速度之间的平衡所需要的利率。


(Yes, it’s true: Monetarists are the dullest economists to ever have walked the planet!)	（是的，就是这样：货币主义者是最迟钝的经济学家，他们不食人间烟火！ ）


Rational Expectations: These Chicago School economists disagree with both Keynesians and monetarists.	理性预期：这些芝加哥学派经济学家反对凯恩斯学派和货币主义者。


Unlike the Keynesians, they think a fiscal stimulus of Christmas gift spending in recessionary festive seasons will not encourage gift producers to boost output.	和凯恩斯学派不同，他们认为，在处于衰退时期的节日期间采取圣诞礼物支出的财政刺激不会鼓励礼物生产商提高产出。


Entrepreneurs will not be fooled by government intervention, and will foresee that the current increase in demand for gifts will be offset in the long run by a sharp drop (as government subsidies turn into increased taxation and fewer Christmases are observed during the good times).	企业家不会被政府干预所愚弄，他们会预见到，当下的礼物需求增长从长期看会被猛然下降所抵消（随着政府补贴转变为加税以及好光景时观察到的圣诞节数量减少）。


With output and employment remaining flat, government subsidies and additional Christmases will merely produce more debt and higher prices.	在产出和就业保持不变的情况下，政府补贴和圣诞过节意愿的增加只能产生更多的债务和更高的物价。


Austrian School libertarians: Supporters of Friedrich von Hayek and Ludwig von Mises have two major objections to Christmas.	奥地利学派自由主义者：哈耶克（Friedrich von Hayek）和米塞斯（Ludwig von Mises）的支持者对圣诞节有两大反对点。


First, there is the illiberal aspect of the holiday season: the state has no right, and no reason, to force entrepreneurs to close down, against their will (for four days December 25 and 26, and January 1 and 2) over the course of a fortnight.	首先，家假日具有反自由性质：国家没有权利，也没有理由强迫企业家违背自己的意愿，在十四天的时间里关门四天（12月25、26日和1月1、2日）。


Second, the ever-lengthening pre-Christmas consumption boom tends to expand credit, thus causing bubbles in the toy and electronics market during the fall that will burst in January, with potentially damaging consequences for the rest of the year.	其次，越来越长的圣诞节前消费旺季倾向于扩张信用，从而导致玩具和电子产品市场的秋季泡沫，泡沫将在1月破灭，给接下来的11个月带来潜在破坏后果。


Empiricists: Convinced that observation is our only tool against economic ignorance, empiricists are certain that the only defensible theoretical propositions are those derived from discerning patterns whereby changes in exogenous variables constantly precede changes in endogenous variables, thus establishing empirically (for example, through Granger tests) the direction of causality.	经验主义者：经验主义者相信观察是战胜经济无知的唯一工具，他们认定，唯一站得住脚的理论主张，是那些得自模式识别的主张，在这些模式中，外生变量的变化永远先于内生变量，从而形成（比如通过格兰杰检验）经验上的因果关系。


This perspective leads empiricists to the safe conclusion that Christmas, and a spurt in gift exchanges, is caused by a prior increase in the money supply and, ceteris paribus, a drop in savings.	据此，经验主义者笃定地认为，圣诞节，以及爆发式的礼物交换，是此前货币供给增加以及——在其他条件不变的情况下——需求减少的结果。


Marxists: In societies in which profit is derived exclusively from surplus value “donated” (as part of the capitalist labor process) by workers, and which reflects the capitalists’ extractive power (bequeathed to them by one-sided property rights over the means of production), the Christmas tradition of gift exchange packs dialectical significance.	马克思主义者：在利润只能来自工人所“贡献”（作为资本主义劳动过程的一部分）的剩余价值的社会，在反映资本家的剥削权力（来自他们的单方面的生产资料所有权）的社会，圣诞节交换礼物的传统充满了辩证意义。


On one hand, Christmas gift giving is an oasis of non-market exchange that points to the possibility of a non-capitalist system of distribution.	一方面，圣诞礼物馈赠是非市场交换的绿洲，指出了一种非资本主义的分配制度。


On the other hand, it offers capital another opportunity to harness humanity’s finest instincts to profit maximization, through the commodification of all that is pure and good about the festive season.	另一方面，这给了资本新的利用人性本善实现利润最大化的机会（通过将这些纯粹而良好的节日性质彻底商品化实现）。


And purists – those who still defend the “law of the falling (long-term) rate of profit” – would say that capital’s capacity to profit from Christmas diminishes from year to year, thus giving rise to social and political forces which, in the long run, will undermine the festive season.	而纯粹主义者——仍然捍卫“（长期）利润率下降定律”的人——会说，资本从圣诞节中攫取利润的能力逐年下降，从而长期而言将破坏节日的社会和政治力量崛起了。


Obviously, none of these theories can possibly account for why people participate, year in and year out, in the ritual of holiday gift giving.	显然，这些理论都无法解释为什么年复一年，人们都会参与馈赠节日礼物的仪式。


For that, we should be grateful.	对此，我们应该感到感恩。


A World Without Exhaust Pipes	一个没有排气管的世界


SAN JOSÉ – The efficient movement of people is crucial for any society.	发自圣何塞——人员的有效流动对任何社会都是至关重要的。


When transportation networks function well, they drive economic development and literally bring people together.	一个运作良好的交通网络能, 推动经济发展并将人们聚拢起来。


But in many parts of the world, mobility is a matter of life and death; it is dirty, unsafe, and chaotic.	但在世界许多地方，从一处移动到另一处就像是在玩命：道路肮脏, 充满危险且极为混乱。


Pollution and congestion from trucks, buses, and cars are daily hazards for millions, especially in emerging countries.	卡车、公交车和汽车产生的污染和拥堵每天都在伤害着数百万人，尤其是在新兴国家。


Fortunately, big changes are coming to how humans move.	幸运的是，人类移动的方式正在迎来巨大的变化。


For the first time since the mid-nineteenth century, when the modern internal combustion engine was invented, its demise is within sight.	自第十九世纪中叶现代内燃机问世以来，它的消亡第一次可能成为现实。


Car manufacturers have announced plans for scores of electric models, and politicians in several European countries have put an expiry date on gasoline and diesel cars, with leaders in India and China aspiring to do the same.	各大汽车制造商已经宣布了数十种电动车模块方案，多个欧洲国家的政界人士已经制定了汽油和柴油车的报废期限，而印度和中国的领导人也有志于此。


Companies around the world are making bold predictions that electric mobility is the future of transportation.	世界各地的企业都在大胆预测电力将塑造未来的交通体系。


Even those with the most to lose from a shift away from fossil fuels understand that electric vehicles (EV) are inevitable.	即使是那些在这场摆脱化石燃料的转换中利益受损最大的人也知道电动车是不可阻挡的潮流。


In July, even Ben van Beurden, the CEO of Shell, conceded that his next car will be electric.	在7月，连壳牌公司的


More people are arriving at the same conclusion, and those of us who have been championing EVs as one of the solutions to climate change are optimistic that a tipping point is approaching.	越来越多的人得出了同样的结论，而我们这些一直倡导将电动车作为气候变化解决方案之一的人们则乐观地认为，一个转折点以在临近。


Sales of electric cars have increased dramatically in recent years; some 750,000 were registered in 2016 – nearly half in China.	近年来电动车的销售量急剧增加； 中国2016年电动车的上牌量约为75万辆。


Still, it is human nature to resist change, and many prospective buyers remain hesitant.	然而抵制变革是人类的天性，而许多潜在的买主依然犹豫不决。


That is why addressing consumption bias must be the highest priority over the next few years. Several changes are needed to ensure that growth in EV usage and sales continues.	这就是为什么在今后几年中消除消费偏见必定是最优先事项，也需要一些变革来确保电动车的使用和销售量继续增长。


For starters, consumers must overcome the belief that zero-emission mobility is only for wealthy people in developed countries.	首先，消费者必须克服这样一种观念，认为零排放交通只和发达国家的富人有关。


Every year, 6.5 million people die from polluted air, and 92% of the world’s population lives in places where the air is unsafe to breathe.	每年有650万人死于空气污染，92% 的世界人口生活在空气不洁净的地方。


Vehicle emissions are a major contributor to dirty air everywhere.	汽车尾气是空气污染的主要来源。


Investing in electric mobility and infrastructure – including electrified public transportation, charging stations, and electric car-sharing programs – will help, not hurt, development.	投资于电力交通和基础设施——包括电气化公共交通、充电站和共享电动车计划——对发展有利无害。


Support for such investments requires people to reject the false promise of “clean” fossil fuels.	支持这类投资需要人们拒绝所谓“清洁”化石燃料的虚假承诺。


Some industry officials insist that electric cars are not ready for mass rollout, and that a better solution would be to build more efficient gasoline and diesel engines.	一些行业官员坚称电动车还没有准备好大规模面世，而更好的解决方案是建造更高效的汽油和柴油发动机。


This is the story we hear most often from car dealers in Latin America. But such views are as inaccurate as they are self-serving.	这是我们最常从拉丁美洲的汽车经销商那里听到的说辞，但这种夹带私货的观点是不准确的。


I have been fortunate to experience firsthand what electric mobility feels like, and how it is superior to gasoline- and diesel-only cars.	我有幸亲身体验过电动交通以及它相对于汽油和柴油车的优势。


I’ve traveled for thousands of miles across several countries on all-electric road trips.	我已经驾驶电动车跑了几千英里，横跨了几个国家。


Once a driver experiences the clean, silent, and powerful technology, it is difficult to hand back the keys.	我觉得那些体验到了干净、无声和强大技术的驾驶者是很难回归非电动车的。


Governments and consumer groups everywhere must work together to put more people behind the wheel of these inspiring vehicles.	为此各地的政府和消费团体必须共同努力，让更多的人开上这些激动人心的车辆。


Finally, we must address the structural imbalances that persist in our transportation policies.	最后，我们必须解决运输政策中持续存在的结构性失衡问题。


Simply put, those who suffer most from “dirty” mobility have the weakest political voice.	简而言之，那些最受“肮脏”交通影响的人也是政治呼声最弱的人。


For example, data from the United Kingdom show that it is often the poorest people that walk or take buses.	英国的数据就表明，那些最贫穷的人经常会选择步行或乘坐公共汽车。


Development of zero-emission public transit, therefore, is rarely a top priority for government leaders.	因此发展零排放公共交通很少能成为政府领导人的优先选项。


To sway them, advocates must sharpen their defenses of the economic and social benefits of zero-emission mobility, such as the positive effects on public health.	为了改变这些人的观念，倡导者们必须加强对零排放交通经济和社会效益的宣传，例如对公共卫生的积极影响。


Changing course will take time.	改变这一进程需要时间。


In Costa Rica, my organization is working to encourage businesses and governments to sign an “electric mobility pact” to encourage investment in EV infrastructure.	在哥斯达黎加，我领导的组织正在努力鼓励企业和政府签署一项 “电力交通协定”以鼓励对电动车基础设施的投资。


In early 2018, we will open an online registry, and by the end of next year, we aim to have 100 public and private organizations on board.	在2018年初，我们将开设一个网上注册平台，目标是到明年年底得到100家公共和私人机构的签署。


Costa Rica’s legislature is also debating a bill to provide tax incentives for electric transportation.	同时哥斯达黎加的立法机构也在辩论一项为电力运输提供税收优惠的法案。


Others in Latin America are finding their own ways to promote electric mobility.	其他拉美国家也在寻找促进电力交通的方法。


In Chile, for example, the focus is on solar power and the link between mining and EV manufacturing.	比如在智利，重点是太阳能以及采矿和电动车制造之间的联系。


But political changes alone will not push EVs into the fast lane.	但仅仅在政治上的改变并不能推动电动车进入快车道。


To do that, customers will need to embrace a new clean-mobility narrative.	要做到这一点，消费者将需要接受一套新的清洁交通叙事。


In Costa Rica, we pride ourselves on the fact that nearly all of our electricity is produced by renewable sources, including hydroelectric, geothermal, and wind.	在哥斯达黎加，几乎所有的电力都是由可再生能源产生的，包括水电、地热和风能，而人们对此感到自豪。


This gives us an incentive to lead the global transition from gas-powered vehicles to electric cars, buses, and trains.	这使我们有动力引领全球从汽油/柴油动力汽车转向电动汽车、公交车和火车的进程。


We Costa Ricans are striving toward “un país sin muflas” – a country without exhaust pipes.	我们哥斯达黎加人正在努力向“一个没有排气管的国家”迈进。


Expanding that goal globally is the ultimate objective.	而最终目的则是将这一目标推广到全球。


To be sure, pushing the electric engine past the gas-powered relic will remain an uphill battle.	可以肯定的是，推动电动引擎越过汽油/柴油动力的阻隔仍然会是场艰巨的战役。


But new technologies, like better batteries and speedier charging stations, will help accelerate the transition.	但新技术，如更高效的电池和更快速的充电站，将有助于加速这一过渡。


Just like the CEO of Shell, I, too, believe that the transition to electric mobility is inevitable.	正如壳牌的CEO一样，我也相信向电力交通过渡是不可逆的。


What we see on the roads today is just the beginning.	而我们今天在路上看到的一切，只是一个开始。


Worker Protection in the Gig Economy	零工经济中的劳动者保护


BERKELEY – Today’s labor markets are undergoing radical change, as digital platforms transform how they operate and revolutionize the nature of work.	伯克利——随着数字平台改变劳动力市场运作并彻底改变工作性质，如今的劳动力市场正在发生根本性的转变。


In many ways, this is a positive development, one that has the potential to match workers with jobs more efficiently and transparently than ever before.	在很多方面这都堪称一种积极的变化，具备比以往任何时候都更有效、更透明地匹配岗位和劳动者的潜能。


But the increasing digitization of the labor market also has at least one very worrying drawback: it is undermining the traditional employer-employee relationships that have been the primary channel through which worker benefits and protections have been provided.	但劳动力市场的日益数字化至少也有一个令人担忧的缺点：它破坏了一直作为员工福利和保护主要提供渠道的传统的雇主和雇员关系。


The ecosystem of digital labor platforms is still in its infancy, but it is developing rapidly.	数字劳动力平台生态系统仍处于起步阶段，但其发展非常迅速。


Large popular platforms like LinkedIn have so far mainly been used to match high-skill workers with high-end jobs.	广受欢迎的大型平台，比方说LinkedIn，迄今为止主要被用于高技能劳动者和高端岗位的匹配工作。


But these platforms are already expanding to accommodate middle-skill workers and jobs.	但上述平台已经开始扩展到中等技术劳动者和工作。


Nearly 400 million people have posted their resumes on LinkedIn, and in 2014 the site facilitated more than one million new hires worldwide.	近4亿人已经在LinkedIn上发布了自己的简历，2014年该网站在世界各地促成了一百多万次新的雇佣。


Meanwhile, other types of digital platforms are emerging, linking workers with customers or companies for specific tasks or services.	同时，其他类型的数字平台不断涌现，联系着劳动者与客户或企业的特定任务或服务。


Such platforms play a growing role in the market for “contingent” or “on-demand” workers, broadly defined as workers whose jobs are temporary and who do not have standard part-time or full-time contracts with employers.	上述平台在“临时”或“按需”劳动力市场发挥的作用越来越大，上述市场被广泛定义为临时工市场或未与雇主签订标准兼职或全职合同的工作岗位。


Well-known digital platforms that link contingent workers directly to customers include Lyft, TaskRabbit, Uber, and Angie’s List.	直接在临时工与客户间建立联系的知名数码平台包括Lyft、TaskRabbit、Uber和Angie’s List。


Freelancer.com and Upwork are examples of platforms that help companies find and hire contingent workers for a range of specialized tasks such as software or website development.	Freelancer. com和Upwork是帮助企业寻找聘用一系列专项任务临时工的平台，比方说软件或网站开发。


Freelancer.com has more than 17 million users worldwide.	Freelancer. com在全球拥有超过1，700万用户。


The trouble is that even as these sites provide new opportunities for workers and companies, they are bypassing the traditional channels through which the US and many countries deliver benefits and protections to their workforce.	麻烦的是这些网站在为劳动者和企业提供新机会的同时，绕过了美国和许多国家为劳动者提供福利和保护的传统渠道。


In the US, in particular, the “social contract” has long relied on employers to deliver unemployment insurance, disability insurance, pensions and retirement plans, worker’s compensation for job-related injuries, paid time off, and protections under the Fair Labor Standards Act.	尤其是美国，“社会合同”长期依赖雇主按《公平劳动标准法》的规定提供失业险、残疾险、养老金和退休计划、与工作相关的工伤赔偿、带薪休假和其他各项保护。


Although the Affordable Care Act has made it easier for workers to acquire health insurance on their own, most workers continue to receive health insurance through their employers.	虽然《平价医疗法》使劳动者更容易凭自身力量获得医疗保险，但多数劳动者的健康险仍然通过雇主获得。


With the proliferation of digital job platforms, the social safety net for workers in the US – threadbare to begin with – is at risk of unraveling for a growing share of the workforce.	随着数字化工作平台的影响力不断扩大，美国劳动力本已摇摇欲坠的社会安全网对越来越多的劳动力而言正在四分五裂。


This is because most individuals who find work through digital job platforms operate as independent contractors, leaving them without the benefits and protections provided in standard employment contracts for full-time and part-time workers.	原因在于通过数字就业平台找工作的多数个人是以独立承包商的身份，致使他们享受不到全职和兼职员工标准雇佣合同规定的福利和保护。


The difference between the cost of a full-time employee with benefits and an independent contractor can be 30% or more, so there is a strong incentive for companies to replace workers on standard full-time employment contracts with independent contractors as long as companies can attract the talent they need.	一名享受福利的全职员工和独立承包商的成本差距可以达到30%或以上，因此只要能吸引到他们所需的人才，企业具有强烈的动机用独立承包商取代通过标准全职合同聘用的劳动者。


Digital job platforms also make it easier for businesses to hire and fire workers on temporary contingent contracts.	数字就业平台也方便了企业通过临时意外合同雇佣和解雇劳动者。


This creates the potential for a race to the bottom, with employers competing on labor costs through regulatory arbitrage.	这营造了一种竞相杀价的氛围，导致雇主通过监管套利等方式在劳动力成本方面展开竞争。


Unless policymakers act, the US will continue to drift toward a two-tier labor market.	除非决策者采取行动，否则美国将继续滑向劳动力市场的两极。


One tier will be populated by fully employed high-skill workers with generous employer-provided (and tax-advantaged) benefits, as well as high-skill individuals who finance their own benefits from high incomes earned as independent contractors or from self-employment. The other tier will include a large pool of contingent middle- and low-skill workers without the benefits, income, or security on which a robust and resilient middle class depends.	其中一极是享受雇主慷慨福利（并拥有税收优惠）的高技术全职员工和以独立承包商或自雇形式赚取高收入负担个人福利的高技术群体，而另一极则是大量临时雇佣、对强大而有活力的中产阶级所依赖的福利、收入及安全可望而不可及的中低技术劳动者。


New policies are needed to provide workers in contingent employment relationships access to benefits, and new institutions are needed to deliver them.	需要制定新政策为临时受雇者发放福利，并需要建立新制度来落实上述政策。


There is growing support for the view that benefits should satisfy at least three conditions. They should be portable, attached to individual workers rather than to their employers.	越来越多人支持福利应满足三个条件：即可以随身携带、归属于职工个人而非雇主及具有普遍性，适用于所有劳动者和一切形式的雇佣。


They should be universal, applying to all workers and all forms of employment. And they should be pro-rated, linking employer benefit contributions to time worked, jobs completed, or income earned.	福利应当按比例分配，将雇主所应负担的福利与劳动时间、工作量或赚取的收入挂钩。


Two recent proposals incorporating these conditions call for the creation of “individual security accounts” analogous to US Social Security accounts, but encompassing portable benefits that would be available to all workers, regardless of employment status, and would accrue via pro-rated automatic payroll contributions.	包含上述条件的两份近期提案呼吁设立与美国社会安全账户类似的 “个人安全账户”  ，包括适用于所有劳动力且与就业状况无关的便携式福利，并通过按比例自动工资拨付的形式累积到个人账户。


A group of strange bedfellows – “gig” employers, labor organizations, venture capitalists, and bipartisan think tanks – recently issued a letter calling for a stable and flexible safety net based on these conditions.	一个奇怪的同盟者群体——“零工”雇主、劳动组织、风险投资家和两党智库——不久前发表了一封信，呼吁要在上述条件下建立稳定灵活的安全网络。


Meanwhile, in Congress, forward-looking policymakers like Senator Mark Warner of Virginia are seeking ways to get ahead of the issues and create momentum for bipartisan solutions.	此外在美国国会，弗吉尼亚州参议员马克·沃纳等具有前瞻性眼光的决策者正在寻找问题的解决办法，为两党合作创造良好的势头。


Much remains to be done before a new safety net for all workers is in place: determining which benefits and protections to include, how to pay for them, and how to deliver them to workers.	为所有劳动者建成新型安全网络之前还有很多工作要做：确定涵盖哪些福利和保护、如何支付以及如何发放到劳动者手中。


Labor groups, including unions or new types of labor organizations like Coworker.org and the Freelancers Union, could fill the gap, providing benefits as unions have done in the construction industry and guilds have done in the entertainment industry.	工会或像Coworker. org及自由职业者联盟这样的新型劳工机构可以填补空白，像建筑业工会和娱乐业公会那样为从业者提供福利和保护。


In Silicon Valley, where thousands of contractors and freelancers are hired every week, new private companies like MBO Partners are emerging to handle the benefits of contingent workers who work for many employers.	在每周雇佣数以千计承包商和自由职业者的美国硅谷，MBO Partners等新型私有企业的崛起为服务于众多雇主的临时工队伍处理福利相关事务。


The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that digital labor platforms could increase US GDP by 2.3% and US full-time equivalent employment by 2.7% by 2025.	麦肯锡全球研究所估计截止2025年，数字劳动力平台可将美国GDP提升2. 3%，美国全职就业率提升2.


But realizing these economy-wide gains while providing a secure and portable safety net for all workers will require new ways of thinking by companies and policymakers.	7%。 但在实现经济收益的同时为所有劳动者提供安全便捷的安全网需要企业和决策者适应新的思维方式。


Empowering Girls	赋权女孩


WASHINGTON, DC – In the lottery of life, being born female in a poor country places one at a double disadvantage.	华盛顿—在生命彩票中，生在穷国的女性需要面对双重劣势。


Women in poor countries have the highest global incidence of poverty of any demographic group, along with the worst health conditions, the least access to education, and the highest likelihood of being victims of violence.	贫穷国家的妇女，贫困发生率比任何人口群体都要高，健康状况也最糟糕，教育普及程度也最低，遭受暴力的危险也最大。


Gender inequality – through workplace exclusion and lower pay – costs the world a staggering 15.5% of GDP.	性别不平等——通过职场排斥和低薪酬——给给世界造成的损失高达GDP的15.


Denying women opportunities to develop their potential means that societies forego their contribution.	5%。 阻挠妇女获得发展潜力的机会意味着社会放弃了她们的贡献。


Yet the frustrating reality is that effective solutions to address gender inequality can be difficult to identify.	但令人沮丧的现实是，解决性别不平等问题的有效方案可能很难找到。


At the most extreme end of the scale of disempowerment are the 30 million girls deemed at risk of female genital mutilation (FGM) over the next decade.	妇女失权规模之巨的最极端例子是有3,000万女孩在未来十年面临接受割礼的危险。


The procedure is almost universal in Somalia, Guinea, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Mali, Sierra Leone, and Sudan.	割礼在索马里、几内亚、吉布提、埃及、厄立特里亚、马里、塞拉利昂和苏丹几乎是所有女性都无法避免的。


The World Health Organization warns that affected women suffer long-term health problems and higher rates of perinatal death.	世界卫生组织警告，受影响妇女将因此发生长期健康问题，分娩死亡率也更高。


But the problem is easier to identify than it is to solve.	但找到问题容易，解决问题难。


Legal reforms have had little impact.	法律改革影响甚微。


Even in the United Kingdom, where FGM was outlawed 30 years ago, not a single person has been successfully prosecuted.	即使在英国，割礼在30年前已经非法，但从未有人因此被成功起诉。


The first-ever recorded figures, reported in July, showed that there were 5,702 new cases in England between April 2015 and March 2016.	7月份第一批被记录的数字表明，在2015年4月到2016年3月期间，英格兰发生了5,702起新的割礼案件。


At least 18 young women and girls were subjected to FGM in the UK, while most underwent the procedure in Africa.	英国至少有18名年轻妇女和女孩将不得不接受割礼，而在非洲，割礼是绝大多数女性的都要经历的。


There has been an overall decline in the prevalence of FGM over the last three decades.	过去三十年中，割礼的普及度总体而言是下降的。


But not all countries have made progress.	但并非所有国家都有进步。


In fact, on current trends, the number of girls and women undergoing FGM will rise significantly over the next 15 years.	事实上，按照当前趋势，接受割礼的女孩和妇女数量将在未来15年显著增加。


This is not to say that charities and governments working in this area are not doing some excellent work.	这并不是说致力于该领域的慈善机构和政府工作不够出色。


But we need more high-quality studies of how to identify and scale up effective programs.	但我们需要关于如何遴选和推广有效计划的高质量的研究。


Child marriage is another unacceptable custom that robs girls of opportunity.	童婚是剥夺女孩机会的另一个不可接受的风俗。


From 2011 to 2020, more than 140 million girls worldwide will become child brides – defined by the United Nations as marriage before age 18.	2011年到2020年间，全世界将有超过1. 4亿女孩沦为童婚新娘——按照联合国18岁以前结婚算童婚的定义的话。


In nine countries – Niger, Central African Republic, Chad, Bangladesh, Mali, Guinea, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Malawi – UNICEF estimates that child marriage rates are higher than 50%.	联合国儿童基金会估计，在九个国家——尼日尔、中非共和国、乍得、孟加拉国、马里、几内亚、南苏丹、布基纳法索和马拉维——童婚率高于50%。


For young brides, the effects are far-reaching: lower education levels and lifetime earnings, higher rates of domestic violence, greater risk of dying during pregnancy or childbirth, and increased mortality rates for their children.	对年轻的新娘们来说，童婚的影响是巨大的：受教育程度和终身收入因此更低，家庭暴力比率因此更高，妊娠和分娩死亡风险因此更大，孩子的死亡率也因此增加。


As with FGM, laws alone are not enough to address the problem.	和割礼问题一样，光靠法律不足以解决问题。


Consider Bangladesh, where 52% of girls are married by the time they reach the legal age of 18.	以孟加拉国为例，该国有52%的女孩在18岁时已经结婚。


Numerous laws prohibiting child marriage and dowries have had scant effect, with 18% of girls – the world’s highest rate – married before they turn 15.	大量法律禁止童婚和陪嫁，但收效甚微，18%的女孩——比例为世界最高——在15岁前就已经结婚。


Programs by community groups to give adolescent girls life skills and training have had limited impact.	社会团体所发起的向少女传授生活技能和训练的项目影响有限。


Analysis in Bangladesh by economists from Duke University and MIT’s Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab suggests that providing financial incentives to delay marriage could be the most effective strategy.	杜克大学和麻省理工大学的阿卜杜勒·拉提夫·贾米尔贫困行动实验室（Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab）的经济学家在孟加拉国的分析表明，提供财务激励推迟结婚是最有效的策略。


Girls in the poorest 20% of the global population are more than twice as likely as those in the wealthiest 20% to be married young.	全球人口中最穷的20%中的女孩，比最富裕的20%的人口中的女孩发生童婚的可能性高一倍。


A promising program in southern Bangladesh gave cooking oil to parents of unmarried girls.	在孟加拉国南部所实施的一项很有希望的项目向未婚女孩的父母发放食用油。


Every four months, participants received four liters of oil, conditional upon a monitor confirming that the girls were still unmarried.	参与者每四个月可以获得四升油，条件是监督员确认他们的女孩没有结婚。


This modest incentive worked: daughters of recipients were up to 30% less likely to marry before 16, yielding benefits four times higher than the costs.	这一微小的激励起了作用：收到食用油的家长的女儿，在16岁前结婚的可能性要低30%，所产生的收益四倍于成本。


Promisingly, the program also improved girls’ education levels: daughters of recipients were up to 22% more likely to remain in school.	令人激动的是，该计划还改善了女孩的教育水平：参与者的女儿不辍学的可能性要高22%。


This matters, because one of the key targets of the Millennium Development Goals, which concluded in 2015, was to eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education.	这很重要，因为千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals，结束于2015年）的关键目标之一是消除中小学教育的性别不平等。


Good progress was made in the primary sector, but access to secondary and university-level education still remains highly unequal.	小学教育取得了非常好的进展，但中学和大学教育的普及率仍然高度不平等。


Differences in enrollment in primary education have decreased in all regions, but Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa lag behind.	小学入学率差异在所有地区都出现了下降，但撒哈拉以南非洲、中东和北非处于落后地位。


Reducing the gender gap in schooling would have benefits that reach the next generation as well.	减小就学方面的性别差距的收益能惠及下一代。


More education for girls means better health and nutrition outcomes for their children.	加强女孩教育意味着她们的孩子能拥有更好的健康和营养结果。


How we achieve this will vary.	我们如何实现这一目标要视情况而定。


Providing free school uniforms, for example, helps in some places, but not everywhere.	比如，提供免费校服在一些地区能起到帮助作用，在另一些地区不能。


In Bangladesh, the intervention for child marriage reduction had auxiliary benefits in furthering secondary education.	在孟加拉国，干预童婚对普及中学教育起到了辅助作用。


New research shows that, globally, money spent to reduce gender disparity in education yields benefits around five times higher than the costs.	新的研究表明，全球而言，用于降低教育方面性别差异的资金，其收益是成本的五倍左右。


Many well-meaning and even unquestionably good ideas to reduce gender inequality are harder to analyze and quantify.	许多降低性别不平等的思想初衷良好，甚至无可挑剔，但分析和量化比较困难。


Ensuring that women have equal rights to inherit property, sign a contract, register a business, or open a bank account would all cost little and could have far-reaching benefits.	确保妇女妇女拥有平等的财产继承权、契约签署权、企业注册权或开立银行账户权都不需要什么成本，而能带来巨大的收益。


Despite data problems, a panel of Nobel laureates convened by Copenhagen Consensus identified such measures as one of the 19 best development targets to pursue, with every dollar spent producing benefits worth more than $15.	尽管面临数据问题，一个由哥本哈根共识（Copenhagen Consensus）召集的诺贝尔奖得主组成的小组仍将这些措施列为最值得追求的19项发展目标之一每一美元投入能够产生价值超过15美元的收益。


We do know how to tackle one problem – and we have ample data on costs and benefits.	我们确实知道如何解决一个问题——我们也拥有足够的成本-收益数据。


Some 225 million women who want to avoid pregnancy are not using safe and effective family-planning methods.	全世界大约有2. 25亿妇女，她们想避孕，但没有安全有效的计划生育手段可用。


The reasons range from a lack of access to information or services to lack of support from their partners or communities.	原因包括无法获得信息和服务、缺少来自伴侣或社区的支持等。


Ensuring universal access to contraception would cost $3.6 billion annually, but would mean 150,000 fewer maternal deaths and 600,000 fewer orphans.	确保避孕手段的全民普及每年需要花费36亿美元，但也意味着150,000位母亲免于死亡，600,000儿童免于沦为孤儿。


Moreover, the demographic dividend from fewer dependents and more people in the workforce would accelerate economic growth.	此外，赡养人口下降、工作人口增加的人口红利将加速经济增长。


The total benefits are an astounding 120 times higher than the costs.	总收益将比成本高120倍。


There are no quick fixes for gender inequality, but one thing is clear: not all efforts are equally good or supported by sound data.	对于性别不平等问题没有速效药，但有一点是显然的：不是所有措施都同样优秀或有可靠数据支撑。


On moral and economic grounds, policymakers should adopt those measures that do the most to empower girls and women.	在道德和经济领域，决策者应该采取最能为女孩和妇女赋权的措施。


The End of AIDS	艾滋病的末日


NEW YORK – The AIDS pandemic claimed around 36 million lives between 1981 and 2016, and a similar number around the world currently live with the HIV virus.	纽约—从1981年到2016年，艾滋病夺走了大约3,600万人的生命，目前还有同样数量的人携带艾滋病毒。


Some 1.2 million people died of AIDS last year, and another 1.8 million were infected.	去年约有120万人死于艾滋病，另有180万人被传染。


Those statistics are daunting, but the startling news is that the goal of an “AIDS-Free Generation” is realistically within reach.	这些数字触目惊心，但令人惊喜的消息是“没有艾滋病的一代”这一目标已经具备现实可能性。


The required policy steps should be agreed in the early days of US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.	美国当选总统特朗普应该尽早在任期内批准所需要的措施。


The key reason that the epidemic can be ended is a scientific finding back in 2011 that showed that HIV-positive individuals receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment suppress the HIV virus in their bloodstreams so dramatically that they are very unlikely to transmit the virus to others through sex or shared needles.	艾滋病能够被消灭的关键原因是一项2011年的科学发现，这项发现表明，接受抗逆转录酶（ARV）疗法的艾滋病毒阳性个体血液中的艾滋病毒数量下降非常快，通过性或共用针头途径几乎不可能将病毒传染给其他人。


This finding confirmed the concept of “treatment as prevention.”	这一发现确认了“以治为防”概念的正确性。


If a high enough proportion of HIV-positive individuals receive ARV treatment, it is possible not only to save their lives, but also to break the transmission of the virus itself, thereby ending the epidemic.	只要足够大比例的艾滋病毒阳性个体接受ARV疗法，就不但可以拯救他们的生命，还能打破病毒本身的传播链，从而消灭这一传染病。


Building on this idea, AIDS specialists developed two crucial ideas: “90-90-90” and the “cascade of AIDS care.”	基于这一思想，艾滋病专家发展出两大关键思想：“90-90-90”和“阶梯式艾滋病治疗”。


The 90-90-90 program aims to ensure that by the year 2020, 90% of all HIV-infected individuals know that they are infected (the first 90); 90% of all those who know they are infected are receiving ARV treatment (the second 90); and 90% of all those receiving ARV treatment successfully suppress the HIV virus in the blood.	90-90-90计划的目标是到2029年90%的艾滋病感染个体知道自己被感染（第一个90）； 90%的知道自己被感染的患者接受ARV疗法（第二个90）；


The idea of the cascade is that if each of the three “90s” is achieved, the proportion of all HIV-infected individuals with viral suppression would be 90% x 90% x 90%, which is equal to 72%.	90%的接受ARV疗法的患者成功遏制血液中的艾滋病毒。 阶梯思想是，如果这三个“90”的每一步都成功实现，那么所有艾滋病毒感染个体中病毒得到遏制的比例将是90%×90%×90%，等于72%。


If 72% of those infected today can no longer infect others, the HIV/AIDS epidemic will be curtailed.	如果72%的今天的感染者不再传染其他人，艾滋病的传染将得到阻断。


Indeed, if 90-90-90 in 2020 becomes 95-95-95 by the year 2030, the proportion of HIV-positive individuals that cannot infect others would rise to 86%.	事实上，如果2020年的90-90-90到2030年成为95-95-95，则艾滋病毒阳性个体无法传染给其他人的比例将上升至86%。


The ongoing epidemic would grind to a halt, just as a measles epidemic among children in a metropolitan area ends when 80% percent of the children are vaccinated, even if the other 20% percent of children remain unvaccinated.	艾滋病的传染将戛然而止，正如大都市地区麻疹在儿童中的传染情况在80%的儿童获得免疫时就会结束，即使另外20%儿童没有接种。


Some cases would remain, but the AIDS catastrophe would be over.	仍会有一些病例，但艾滋病不再是一场灾难。


The goal of reaching 90-90-90 by the year 2020 and 95-95-95 by 2030 is realistic, if countries strive for success.	2020年达到90-90-90和2030年达到95-95-95的目标是现实的，如果各国为之努力的话。


Sweden recently announced that it has reached the 90-90-90 targets.	最近，瑞典宣布其已经达到90-90-90目标。


Many other high-income countries are close.	许多高收入国家也已接近这一目标。


With international help and national efforts, 90-90-90 could be achieved not only in high-income countries but in developing countries as well.	在国际援助和国家措施的帮助下，不仅高收入国家，发展中国家也可以达到90-90-90目标。


For most of the world, the biggest challenge is ensuring that by 2020 at least 90% of HIV-positive individuals are tested and learn that they are infected – the first of the three 90s.	对全世界大部分国家来说，最大的挑战是确保2020年至少有90%的艾滋病毒阳性个体得到检测并了解自己被感染——即第一个90。


To reach this goal, people who are symptomatic or at high risk need to be connected to the health system for testing.	要实现这一目标，有艾滋病症状者和高风险者必须联系卫生系统接受检测。


Once an HIV-infected individual tests positive, achieving the second 90% (AVR treatment) depends mainly on funding and staffing; with a sufficient health budget, medicines can be made available for all infected individuals.	如果艾滋病毒感染者检测呈阳性，实现第二个90%（AVR疗法）主要取决于资金和人手； 如果有充足的卫生预算，所有受感染个体都能获得药物。


Achieving the third 90% (suppression of the viral load) depends mainly on whether AVR-treated individuals take the medications on schedule.	实现第三个90%（遏制病毒量）主要取决于接受AVR疗法的个体是否按时治疗。


That may require social support to encourage the patients to continue the medications even when they feel healthy, and to help ensure the timely and affordable supply of medications.	这需要社会支持以鼓励患者在觉得恢复健康后仍然坚持治疗，以及确保医药的及时且平价的供应。


The 90-90-90 targets can be reached even among impoverished and hard-to-reach populations, thanks to a new and powerful public-health solution: community health workers (CHWs) supported by smartphones.	即使对于贫困和偏远人群，90-90-90目标也是可实现的，因为我们有了强大的新公共卫生解决方案：有智能手机支持的社区卫生工作者（CHW）。


CHWs are local community residents with at least a high-school education, who are trained for a few months in the management of specific health challenges, such as identifying potentially HIV-infected individuals, bringing them to the clinic for testing, and helping them to adhere to their medical protocols.	CHW是本地社区居民，至少具备高中学历，接受为期数月的具体医疗状况管理培训（如识别潜在艾滋病毒感染个体、将他们带到医院接受检测，并帮助他们遵守医疗协议）。


New smartphone apps help them to do their job.	新智能手机应用能帮助他们完成工作。


In rural Africa, where doctors are typically very scarce and AIDS prevalence is often high, the high life-saving potential of CHWs has been very well demonstrated and documented.	在医生往往短缺、艾滋病流行程度往往剧烈的非洲农村地区，CHW在拯救生命方面的潜力得到了很好的表现和记录。


Moreover, being a CHW offers a good way for young people to start their careers.	此外，成为CHW为年轻人提供了很好的职业生涯起点。


Though initial compensation is very modest (perhaps $100 per month), the experience and training can put these young workers on a path toward further education (such as nursing), rising skills, and higher incomes.	尽管一开始的薪酬很低（也许每个月只有100美元），但经验和培训能让这些年轻工作者获得持续教育（如护理）、提升技能和更高的收入。


Yet, despite the potential to bring the AIDS epidemic to an end, the world is currently stuck in limbo.	但是，尽管我们有望消灭艾滋病，但目前的情况仍是寸步难行。


Sadly, our governments operate not on the basis of bold goals and the means to achieve them, but on “business as usual.”	悲哀的是，我们的政府不是基于大胆的目标和实现手段运行，而是“一切照旧”。


Sixteen years ago, business as usual meant almost no treatment of poor people with AIDS, because financing was not available.	十六年前，一切照旧意味着对贫穷的艾滋病人几乎不予治疗，因为没钱。


At that time, I recommended a new “Global Fund” to finance AIDS treatment, an idea that was adopted and then helped to start an era of AIDS control in Africa.	当时，我建议成立一个新的“全球基金”为治疗艾滋病提供资金，这一想法被接受，并帮助开启了非洲控制艾滋病的时代。


US President George W. Bush’s administration made a major US financial commitment to AIDS, and the Global Fund and US programs together helped millions of people gain access to treatment.	美国总统小布什政府为艾滋病提供了巨大的融资支持，全球基金和美国计划合起来让数百万人获得了治疗。


Yet, after the 2008 financial crisis erupted, President Barack Obama leveled off the US financing, and the global AIDS control effort got caught in a “half-way” mode.	但是，2008年金融危机爆发后，总统奥巴马减少了美国的融资支持，全球艾滋病控制措施也陷入了“半途”。


As of 2016, roughly half of all HIV-positive individuals are on ARV treatment, far short of the 90% target.	到2016年，大约一半的艾滋病毒阳性个体正在接受ARV疗法，远低于90%的目标。


The incoming Trump administration should grasp the historic opportunity to help bring AIDS to an end through a modest financial commitment by governments and other funders.	即将履新的特朗普征服应该抓住这一历史机遇，通过政府和其他出资者的温和融资承诺帮助消灭艾滋病。


An extra $10 billion per year from all sources would likely be sufficient to get the job done, with just $3-4 billion annually from the US.	从各种渠道每年增加100亿美元资金便可能足以完成任务，其中美国每年只需要出30—40亿美元。


Skeptics will scoff that Trump is an unlikely champion of such an effort; but, frankly, who would have guessed 15 years ago that Bush would be the key mover of the financial scale-up of the fight against AIDS?	怀疑派会嘲笑说，特朗普不可能支持这样的措施； 但是，坦白讲，15年前谁又能猜到布什会成为加大对抗艾滋病力度的主要资金推手呢？


History is full of positive as well as negative surprises; the end of AIDS can be a historic achievement of our generation, if we reach for it.	历史往往充满了惊喜和“惊吓”； 消灭艾滋病将是我们这一代人的历史性成就，如果我们实现的话。


Building Up the BRICS	垒实金砖


MANCHESTER – This year’s meeting of the BRICS in India is taking place just a fortnight after the 15th anniversary of the creation of the term “BRICs,” which I coined to refer to the major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China (South Africa was added in 2010).	发自曼彻斯特— 在15年前，我创设了“金砖四国（BRICs）”一词来指代几个主要新兴经济体：巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国（后于2010年增添了南非）。


Recently, my brief tenure in the British government came to an end, following the completion of an independent review on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) that I had been chairing.	在主持的针对抗菌素耐药性（Antimicrobial Resistance）的独立审查工作于近期完成之后，我在英国政府的短暂任期也结束了。


As I ponder what to do next, and as the BRICS leaders meet, I can’t help but wonder about the term’s meaning today.	而在思考下一步该投身哪些事业的时候，我不禁回想到了这个迄今15周年的主题。


Have these large and promising emerging economies fulfilled expectations?	这些庞大且让人寄予厚望的新兴经济体到底有没有辜负人们的期望？


Perhaps the simplest way to answer this question relates to my work on the AMR review, which was launched by former British Prime Minister David Cameron in 2014.	也许回答这个问题的最简单方法与我的抗菌素耐药性审查工作有关，这是由前英国首相戴维·卡梅伦于2014年启动的项目。


On September 21, we achieved a major victory: a high-level agreement by the United Nations on the topic.	同年9月21日我们就取得了一项重大进展：联合国针对该议题签署了一份高级别协议。


After the agreement was reached, a German television crew that had occasionally followed my team and me as we worked to spread awareness of AMR asked me, on air, whether the outcome was more important than the BRIC concept.	在协议达成后，一个在我的团队和我本人在各界广泛树立耐药性意识期间不时跟踪拍摄的德国电视摄制组曾经在直播中问我，这个项目的结果是否比金砖四国的概念更重要。


Without even waiting for me to answer, they declared that it obviously was.	而我甚至都没来及回答，他们就抢先给出了肯定的答案。


And they were right: no economy, emerging or otherwise, can hope to be successful if it is plagued by a health threat as serious and uncontrollable as AMR.	他们是对的：不管是新兴还是其他什么经济体，如果持续处于抗菌素耐药性这类严重且无法控制的卫生威胁之下的话，都是不可能实现繁荣的。


But there is more to the story: the BRICS are just as important to tackling AMR as tackling AMR is to the BRICS.	但是金砖五国的故事可不仅限于此：金砖五国在应对抗菌素耐药性议题上的重要性跟应对耐药性对于这五国的重要性是等同的。


South Africa, for one, was a key supporter of the United Kingdom in discussions about AMR at the recent G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, and the issue might not have ended up in the meeting’s communiqué without its support.	其中南非就是英国在近期在杭州G20峰会上耐药性议题的主要支持者，如果缺少了该国的支持，该议题甚至可能没机会出现在会议的公报上。


And that is the point.	而这就是问题所在。


The BRICS today, like in 2001, have a vital role to play in tackling the most pressing international challenges.	当今的金砖五国跟2001年时一样，在解决那些最为紧迫的国际性挑战方面发挥着至关重要的作用。


In fact, I came up with the acronym not just because the letters fit together, but also because of the word’s actual meaning: these emerging economies, I argued in my 2001 paper, should be the building blocks of freshly overhauled global financial and governance systems.	事实上我之所以想出BRICS这个缩写，不仅是因为各国名称首字母的巧合，也是因为这个词的真实含义：在我2001年发表的文章中，这些新兴经济体应该是构筑新全球金融和治理体系的基石。


Yet, as we approach this year’s autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the BRICS remain severely underrepresented by these critical institutions.	然而在即将召开的国际货币基金组织和世界银行的秋季会议上，金砖国家在这些关键机构中的代表性依旧不足。


If this does not change, with reforms going much further than they have so far, we will soon find that “global governance” is no longer global at all.	如果这一情况无法扭转的话，随着各项改革远远超出当前的范围，我们很快就会发现所谓的“全球治理”已经跟全球性不沾边了。


To be sure, the BRICS have lately been going through a rough time.	诚然金砖国家近年的日子也不太好过。


The economic performance of Brazil and Russia, in particular, has been very disappointing so far this decade, to the point that many now perceive those countries as unworthy of the status the acronym afforded them.	巴西和俄罗斯近十年间的经济表现尤其是令人失望，以致许多人如今都觉得应该把这两个国家从缩写中剔除。


But the suggestion that the BRICS’ importance was overstated is simply naïve.	但这种认为金砖国家重要性被夸大了的想法其实是相当幼稚的。


The size of the original four BRICs economies, taken together, is roughly consistent with the projections I made all those years ago.	四个金砖起始国如今的经济总量其实与我多年前作出的预测保持了一致。


Both Russia and Brazil now account for a similar share of global GDP as they did in 2001, though Russia, according to my simple calculation, might currently be outside the world’s ten largest economies.	俄罗斯和巴西两国占全球GDP的比重和2001年基本一致。 虽然根据我的简单计算，俄罗斯可能已经跌出了世界十大经济体之外。


Brazil, for all of its considerable problems, is higher in the world ranking today than even I had envisaged back then.	而巴西即便有着相当多的问题，但全球排名甚至比我当初的设想要高。


India continues along roughly the same path it was on 15 years ago.	印度依然沿着与15年前大致相同的路径不断前进。


With the right structural reforms, it may even be able to achieve a sustained period of Chinese-style double-digit economic growth.	有了合理的结构性改革，它甚至可以在一段时期内持续实现中国式的两位数经济增长。


But the biggest BRICS success story remains China, which, despite its recent slowdown, has far exceeded expectations.	而最大的金砖国家成功故事仍然是中国。 尽管近期经济有所放缓，但中国的发展远远超过了预期。


If the economy grows at an annual rate of around 6% for the remainder of the decade, it will fulfill my 20-year projection.	如果中国经济能在2020年前保持6％左右的年增长率，那么我的20年预测就将应验。


This is not to diminish the challenges confronting China.	这可不是在回避中国所面临的挑战。


But if it manages to address the most urgent among them – downside deflationary risks – its much-discussed debt challenge will become far more manageable.	但如果它能设法解决其中最为紧迫的问题——下行通货紧缩风险——其备受争议的债务挑战就将变得更加易于管理。


Fortunately for China, other countries want – or should want – it to succeed.	但中国的幸运之处在于其他国家希望——或者应该希望——它走向成功。


After all, a dynamic Chinese economy is in the interest of many other countries, especially those that can export the goods and services that a more modern, consumer-driven China needs.	毕竟一个充满活力的中国经济符合其他许多国家的利益，特别是那些可以输出一个更现代化且消费拉动型的中国所需的商品和服务的国家。


In fact, the rise of the Chinese consumer may well be the most important single global economic variable today – even more important than, say, the economic problems afflicting Europe and Japan or questions about India’s enduring global relevance.	事实上，中国消费者的崛起可能是当前最重要的单一全球经济变化因素——甚至比困扰欧洲和日本的经济问题或者对印度经济与全球的长期关联性的质疑这类问题更加重要。


The potential barriers to the BRICS’ growth and development are many, including health threats like AMR, educational challenges, inadequate representation in global governance bodies, and a number of short-term cyclical problems.	金砖国家的成长和发展的潜在障碍是多方面的，包括抗菌素耐药性这类健康威胁，教育方面的挑战，在全球治理机构中代表性不足以及一些短期的周期性问题。


Policymakers worldwide must commit themselves to dismantling these barriers, and enabling the BRICS to fulfill, finally, their true potential.	而全球政策制定者必须致力于拆除这些壁垒，以令金砖国家最终能发挥出其真正的潜力。


The Geopolitics of Environmental Challenges	环境挑战的地缘政治


LONDON – Much of the world seems to be on edge.	伦敦——世界许多国家似乎都陷入到紧张局势。


The West’s relationship with Russia, the future of NATO, the Syrian civil war and refugees, rising right-wing populism, the impact of automation, and the United Kingdom’s impending departure from the European Union: all of these topics – and more – have roiled public debate worldwide.	西方与俄罗斯的关系、北约的未来、叙利亚内战和难民问题、日益崛起的右翼民粹主义、自动化的影响和英国即将脱欧带来的冲击：所有这些话题——和其他问题交织在一起——已经牢牢占据了世界各国公众辩论的主题。


But one issue – one might say the most significant of them all – is being ignored or pushed aside: the environment.	但有一个问题——有人可能会说这个问题是最重要的——正在遭到忽视或者搁置：那就是环境问题。


That was the case at this year’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland.	今年在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上的情况就是如此。


Beyond a mention of the Paris climate agreement by Chinese President Xi Jinping, topics like climate change and sustainable development didn’t even make it to the main stage.	除中国主席习近平提到巴黎气候协定外，像气候变化和可持续发展这样的话题甚至被从主要舞台上挤了出去。


Instead, they were relegated to side meetings that rarely seemed to intersect with current political and economic events.	相反，他们被降格到附属会议上讨论，附属会议的议题似乎与当前政治和经济事件鲜有交集。


Allowing environmental issues to fall by the wayside at this time of geopolitical and social instability is a mistake, and not just because this happens to be a critical moment in the fight to manage climate change.	允许环境问题在当前这一地缘政治和社会动荡期半途而废是一个错误，这不仅是因为目前恰恰是管理气候变化之战的关键时期。


Environmental degradation and natural-resource insecurity are undermining our ability to tackle some of the biggest global issues we face.	环境退化和自然资源不安全正在削弱我们应对某些全球最严重问题的能力。


Environmental insecurity is a major, though often underestimated, contributor to global instability.	尽管经常遭到低估，但环境不安全是导致全球动荡的一个主要因素。


The UN High Commission on Refugees reports that natural disasters have displaced more than 26 million people per year since 2008 – almost a third of the total number of forcibly displaced people in this time period.	联合国难民事务高级专员报告自2008年以来，自然灾害造成每年超过2600万人流离失所——几乎占到这一时期被迫流离失所者总人数的1/3。


Even the current refugee crisis has an environmental element.	就连当前的难民危机也不乏环境因素。


In the years leading up to the war, Syria experienced its most extreme drought in recorded history.	战争爆发前几年，叙利亚经历了该国有史以来最极端的干旱天气。


That drought, together with unsustainable agricultural practices and poor resource management, contributed to the internal displacement of 1.5 million Syrians and catalyzed political unrest ahead of the 2011 uprising.	那次旱灾，加之不可持续的农业耕作和糟糕的资源管理，导致150万叙利亚人在国内流离失所，并催化了2011年起义爆发前的政治动荡局势。


The link between environmental and agricultural pressures extends far beyond Syria.	环境和农业压力之间的联系绝不仅仅是叙利亚的问题。


Over-reliance on specific geographies for agriculture means that food production can exacerbate environmental problems, or even create new ones.	过度依赖特定的农业地域耕作意味着粮食生产可能加剧、甚至创造出新的环境问题。


This can pit global consumer interests against local citizen interests, as it has along the Mississippi River, where fertilizer runoff from one of the world’s breadbaskets is contributing to concerns about water quality.	就像密西西比河流域一样，这可能导致全球消费者利益与当地民众利益之间产生对立，这个世界著名粮仓之一的化肥残留正在加深人们对水资源质量的忧虑。


The connection goes both ways, with environmental conditions also shaping agricultural production – and, in turn, the prices of agricultural commodities, which represent about 10% of traded goods worldwide.	这种联系是双向的，一方面环境条件影响农业生产——而且反过来又决定了占世界贸易商品约10%的农产品价格。


For example, rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are already driving up the price of coffee.	举例而言，温度上升和降水模式改变已经推高了咖啡定价。


With the global land area suitable for growing coffee set to contract by up to half by 2050, price pressures will only intensify.	随着全球适合种植咖啡的土地注定要在2050年前减少近一半 ，价格压力只会进一步加剧。


A sudden shift toward trade protectionism could drive up agricultural commodity prices further.	突然转向贸易保护主义可能进一步推高农产品价格。


Such an increase would affect farm-level household income, favoring some farmers while harming others.	如此涨价将影响家庭农场收入，在给某些农民带来好处的同时伤害其他人。


End consumers, particularly the poor and vulnerable, would also suffer.	最终消费者，尤其是穷人和弱势群体，也将因此而陷入困境。


Another reason why the environment should be at the center of economic debates is its role as the world’s single largest employer.	环境理应成为经济辩论核心的另一个原因是农业一直是全球唯一的最大雇主。


Almost a billion people, just under 20% of the world’s labor force, are formally employed in agriculture.	其中近十亿人，即刚刚不到全球劳动力总数的20%，在农业领域实现正式就业。


Another billion or so are engaged in subsistence farming, and therefore don’t register in formal wage statistics.	还有十亿人左右从事自给自足的农业，因此并未被记入正式的工资统计数据。


Any initiatives to support economic development must support this population’s transition toward higher-productivity activities.	支持经济发展的任何计划都必须支持这部分民众向更高生产率的活动转移。


This is particularly important at a time when increasingly sophisticated and integrated technology threatens to leapfrog an entire generation of workers in some countries.	在越来越复杂和综合的技术工艺威胁跨跃某些国家的整代工人时，上述转移的重要性尤其不容忽视。


Efforts to benefit this huge population must focus not only on training and education, but also on new models that allow countries to capitalize on their natural capital – the landscapes, watersheds, and seascapes – without depleting it.	惠及数量巨大的这部分民众的工作不仅要关注培训和教育，而且还要注重允许各国充分利用自然资本的全新模式——其中包括地形地貌、流域和海域——但同时要避免谋求发展采取耗尽资源的方式。


Just as natural-resource insecurity can cause displacement and vulnerability, effective natural-resource management can support conflict resolution and sustainable economic development.	就像自然资源不安全可能导致脆弱和流离失所一样，有效的自然资源管理可以支持可持续经济发展和冲突的解决。


On this front, efforts to achieve environmental remediation, to boost the resilience of rural communities, to advance sustainable agricultural production, and to support community-based environmental stewardship have all shown promising results.	在这方面，实现环境补救、提高农业群体抵御灾害的能力以及推动可持续农业生产和支持以社区为基础的环境管理工作都已经取得了显著的效果。


Consider the Northern Rangelands Trust, an organization focused on creating community conservancies to enable sustainable and equitable land use in Kenya.	以北方牧场信托组织为例，该机构为实现肯尼亚可持续和公平的土地利用，致力于创建地域群体保护区。


NRT has helped pastoralist communities establish effective governance mechanisms for the environment on which they depend, reducing conflict over grazing rights, especially in times of drought.	北方牧场信托组织帮助牧民群体建立其赖以生存的有效环境治理机制，减少因为放牧权所引发的冲突，尤其是在干旱时期。


For many communities, members’ relationship with the landscape in which they live is an integral part of their identity.	对众多群体而言，群体成员与他们所生活的陆地环境之间的关系与他们的身份形成有机的统一。


With effective governance and planning, open dialogue, resource-sharing frameworks, and sufficient investment, including in skills training, these communities can translate this relationship into effective environmental stewardship – and build healthier and more secure societies.	通过有效的治理和规划、公开对话、资源共享框架和对包括技能培训在内的充分投资，这些群体可以将这种关系转化为有效的环境管理——并建设更健康和更安全的社会。


The crises engulfing the modern world are complex.	吞噬现代社会的危机极为复杂。


But one thing is clear: the environment is connected to all of them.	但有一点十分清楚：环境与所有危机都有着不可分割的关系。


Solutions will mean little without a healthy world in which to implement them.	如果没有能够执行方案的健康世界，单纯制定解决方案将几乎没有任何意义。


The Strange Death of Turkish Secularism	土耳其世俗主义的离奇死亡


JERUSALEM – The aftermath of Turkey’s failed military coup raises a fundamental question: will President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continue to pursue his authoritarian path, perhaps with a vengeance, or will he reach out to his opponents and attempt to bridge the deep fissures in Turkish society?	耶路撒冷——土耳其失败的军事政变提出了一个根本性的问题：雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安总统是会为了复仇的目的继续奉行独裁主义道路，还是会向反对派伸出手去，试图弥合土耳其社会存在的深层次的鸿沟。


The jury is still out, but judging from previous historical examples, serious challenges to authoritarian or semi-authoritarian leaders usually lead to a hardening of the regime, not greater moderation.	审判结果尚无定论，但是从历史先例看，对独裁或半独裁领导人发起严峻挑战往往会导致政权更加强硬，而不是让执政者更加温和。


And Erdoğan’s moves since the coup’s collapse – mass arrests and purges of thousands of soldiers, judges, police, and teachers were announced almost immediately – seem to confirm the more pessimistic scenario.	而政变崩溃后埃尔多安的动作——几乎立即发布对数千名士兵、法官、警察和教师的大规模逮捕令——似乎证实了相对悲观的预想。


Yet it would be a mistake to view what is now happening in Turkey exclusively through the prism of Erdoğan’s personality and his authoritarian inclinations.	但完全通过埃尔多安个性及独裁倾向的棱镜来观察土耳其现在的局势将是一种错误。


He and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) represent a tectonic shift in Turkish politics, one with parallels in other Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East.	埃尔多安和他的正义与发展党（AKP）代表着土耳其政治的结构性转变，同样的转变在中东其他穆斯林多数国家中也可以观察到。


In trying to move the path of Turkish history away from the radical secularism of modern Turkey’s founder, Kemal Atatürk, the AKP initially appeared to veer from the Kemalist authoritarian mold.	在试图让土耳其脱离该国现代创始人凯末尔·阿塔图尔克激进世俗主义道路的历史斗争中，正义与发展党最初似乎改变了凯末尔主义者的专制政策。


Because Western observers were supportive of the secular nature of Kemalism, many overlooked that the regime was more similar to 1930s European fascism – a nationalistic one-party state with Atatürk himself at the apex of a personality cult – than to liberal democracy.	因为西方观察家支持凯末尔主义的世俗属性，很多人都忽略了凯末尔政权更像20世纪30年代的欧洲法西斯主义——即以对阿塔图尔克的个人崇拜为最高原则的民族主义一党制国家——而不是自由民主。


Only in the 1950s was the system slowly loosened.	一直到20世纪60年代土耳其内部体制才有所放松。


Kemalist secularism was not the expression of a wide, popular movement from below; it was imposed by a small urban elite – military and intellectual – on a traditional and mostly rural society.	凯末尔式的世俗主义并不是底层民众广泛、普遍的民意表达； 它是由一小撮城市精英——包括军队和知识分子——对传统和乡村社会的强加。