Although there is no need immediately to announce a specific exchange rate for the zloty at euro entry, such a program must include among its focal points a formula for determining the rate.	尽管没有必要立即宣布具体的兹罗提兑欧元的起始汇率，但这套方案的各个财政要点之中必须包含一个确定汇率的公式。


By developing and disclose to the public a compelling rationale for what will determine the exchange rate when the time comes, the financial markets would then be able to forecast the future reference exchange rate more precisely.	通过制定一个在适当的时候确定汇率的强制性方法，并向公众公布，金融市场将能够更加准确地预测将来的参考汇率。


This would reduce the potential for speculative currency arbitrage and mitigate exchange-rate risk in the run-up to euro adoption, which would contribute to lower market interest rates, as their level always incorporates the prevalent exchange-rate risk.	这样就能减少投机性货币套汇的机会，降低采用欧元过程中的汇率风险，从而有助于降低市场利率，因为市场利率水平总是与当前汇率风险结合在一起。


There is little doubt among economists that euro membership will bring enduring net benefits to Poland.	经济学家们基本上都不怀疑取得欧元国身份会给波兰带来持续的净收益。


It will lower transaction costs and increase labor productivity.	交易成本会降低，而劳动生产率会提升。


But it will do so only if serious institutional deficiencies are eliminated. These include legal impediments to labor mobility, reform of a complex tax system beset by excessive rates and porous loopholes, and substandard road infrastructure.	但这种情况只有在消除制度上的严重缺陷后才能实现，包括法律上对劳动力流动性的阻碍、深受高税率和众多漏洞困扰的复杂税收制度的改革、以及未达到标准的公路基础设施。


Each should be regarded as an urgent matter by the new government, and each, if handled adroitly, could be “sold” to the public as the type of popular reform that people have been demanding.	每一个问题新政府都应该当作紧急的事件来抓，如果处理巧妙，还可以“出售”给公众，这也正是人们一直要求的改革方式。


Poland’s new government faces several serious challenges, not the least of which will be to reconcile its liberal and populist tendencies.	波兰的新政府面临着多项艰巨的挑战，其中，如何调和自由主义和民粹主义倾向的问题不容忽视。


Only if populism is put at the service of liberal reform will the government achieve lasting benefits.	只有让民粹主义服务于自由主义改革，政府才能取得长久的利益。


The Right Priorities for the G8	八国峰会的正确优先权


In the run-up to the G8 meeting in Scotland on July 6-8, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has called on the international community to set the right global priorities, which he has unequivocally stated should be Africa and global warming.	在7月6日-8日苏格兰八国峰会即将召开的前期，英国首相托尼·布莱尔（Tony Blair）呼吁国际社会确立正确的全球优先解决的问题，他毫不含糊地声称这应当是非洲问题和全球变暖问题。


Blair is right in challenging us to set priorities.	布莱尔要求我们确定优先解决的问题是对的。


But his choice is probably wrong.	但是他的选择也许是错误的。


While we should accept his challenge, we should also get our priorities right.	尽管我们应该接受他的挑战，我们也应该把优先解决问题确定正确。


Political leaders rarely espouse clear priorities, preferring to seem capable of giving everything to everybody.	政治领导人很少信奉明确的优先权，他们更愿意让自己看起来能够向每个人提供所有东西。


They must work with bureaucracies, which are naturally disinclined to have their efforts prioritized, lest they end up as anything less than number one.	他们必须采取官僚的方式工作，自然，也就不愿意先努力，以免他们没有成为第一名。


Whenever we prioritize, we not only say where we should do more (which is good) but also where we should not increase our efforts (which is regarded as cynical).	每当我们给出优先权的时候，我们说的不仅仅是我们应该在哪些（好的）方面做得更多，也应该指出在哪些（有争议的）方面我们不必再追加努力。


But not talking about priorities does not make the need to prioritize go away.	但是不谈论优先权并不意味着没有必要给予优先权。


Instead, the choices only become less clear, less democratic, and less efficient.	相反，选择只是变得更含糊、更欠民主、更缺效率。


Refusing to prioritize, dealing mainly with the most publicized problems, is wrong.	拒绝给予优先权、却只处理曝光最多的问题是错误的。


Imagine doctors at a perpetually overrun hospital refusing to perform triage on casualties, merely attending patients as they arrived and fast-tracking those whose families made the most fuss.	想象一下一个在终日超负荷运转的医院内工作的医生们拒绝将伤员们分类，只在病人刚到的时候照顾一下他们，快速地检查一下那些家属会大惊小怪的病人。


Refusing to prioritize is unjust, wastes resources, and costs lives.	拒绝给予优先权是不公的、浪费资源且付出生命代价的。


So what should be our top global priorities?	因此，什么应该是我们全球首需解决的呢？


This question was addressed in a groundbreaking project involving a long list of the world’s top economists at the Copenhagen Consensus last year.	许多世界顶尖经济学家在去年的“哥本哈根共识”中的一个开创性方案中提出了这个问题。


A “dream team” of eight economists, including three Nobel Laureates, confronted the basic question: if the world had, say, an extra $50 billion to do good, where could that money best be spent?	一个由八位经济学家组成、包括三名诺贝尔获奖者的“梦之队”，面对着一个基本问题：如果全世界拥有，比如说，500亿美元去做好事，这笔钱的最佳用处在哪里呢？


The top priority turned out to be HIV/AIDS prevention.	优先权最终落到了预防HIV/AID艾滋病问题上。


A comprehensive program would cost $27 billion, but the potential social benefits would be immense: avoidance of more than 28 million new cases of HIV/AIDS by 2010.	全球的预防艾滋病计划将花费270亿美元，但是却有巨大的潜在社会利益：这项计划将在2010年之前避免2,800万多的新HIV/AIDS艾滋病病例。


This makes it the best investment the world could make, reaping social benefits that outweigh the costs by 40 to 1.	这使它成为全世界所能做出的最佳投资，其所收获的社会利益是花费的40倍。


Similarly, providing micronutrients missing from more than half the world’s diet would reduce diseases caused by deficiencies of iron, zinc, iodine, and Vitamin A with an exceptionally high ratio of benefits to cost.	同样地，提供全世界一半以上的饮食所缺乏的微量营养素将减少由于缺乏铁、碘和维他命A所引起的疾病，这些疾病花费尤为巨大。


If we could only find the political will, establishing free trade could be achieved at a very low cost, with benefits of up to $2.4 trillion a year.	只要我们找到政治意愿，就能以非常低的成本建立自由贸易，每年能获利高达24,000亿美元。


Fighting malaria pays off at least five times the costs.	消灭疟疾将至少获得所需花费五倍以上的利益。


Mosquito nets and effective medication could halve the incidence of malaria and would cost $13 billion.	蚊帐和有效的药物治疗将花费130亿美元，却能将疟疾的发病率减少一半。


The list goes on to focus on agricultural technologies to tackle food production and hunger, as well as technologies to boost the supply of clean drinking water and improve sanitation.	问题列表继续将焦点放在能够解决粮食生产和解决饥荒的农业技术以及增加洁净饮用水的供给和改善公共卫生的技术上。


Given that these problems are most acute in Africa, Blair’s priorities have some merit.	考虑到这些问题在非洲最为尖锐，布莱尔的优先解决问题还是有可取之处的。


But the Copenhagen Consensus showed us not only what we should be doing, but also what should not be done – at least not right now.	但是“哥本哈根共识”告诉我们的不仅仅是我们应该做什么，还有不该做什么——至少此时此刻不该做什么。


The experts rated responses to climate change extremely low on the “to do” list.	专家们把对气候变化的反应措施排在“该做”清单的最末处。


In fact, the panel called these ventures – including the Kyoto Protocol – “bad projects” because they cost more than the good they do.	事实上，专家小组把这些冒险之举——包括京都议定书——称为“糟糕的计划”因为它们的成本高于受益。


This does not mean that we should ignore climate change.	这并不是说我们应当忽视气候变化。


Global warming is real.	全球变暖无可置疑。


But the Kyoto rules will make an almost imperceptible difference (postponing temperature increases from 2100 to 2106) at a substantial cost (about $150 billion per year).	但是成本颇高（约1,500亿美元）的京都议定书的条约却几乎没有带来任何不同（将气温升高从2100年推迟到2106年）。


Given scarce resources, we must ask ourselves: do we want to do a lot of good now, or a little good much later?	考虑到稀有资源，我们必须问问我们自己：我们要现在做许多好事还是以后再做一点好事？


We need to ask if we can do more for the world by investing differently.	我们需要问问我们是否能够通过不同的投资为世界做更多的事情。


Far from suggesting a policy of laissez faire, this question addresses the pressing problem of prioritization head on.	这个问题提出了当下十分紧迫的优先化问题，而不是暗示着不干涉政策。


Why did thousands die in Haiti during the recent hurricanes and not in Florida?	在最近的飓风灾难中，为什么海地死了数千人而佛罗里达却安然无恙？


Because Haitians are poor. They cannot take preventive measures.	因为海地人十分贫穷，无法采取预防措施。


Breaking the cycle of poverty by addressing the most pressing issues of disease, hunger, and polluted water will not only do obvious good, but also make people less vulnerable.	为了打破贫穷循环，解决最刻不容缓的疾病、饥饿以及水污染问题不仅仅有显而易见的益处，也会使人们不再那么易受伤害。


The G-8 meeting has put global prioritization on the agenda.	八国峰会已经将全球优先解决问题放上议程。 现在是确定对首需解决问题的时候了。


Now is the time to get our priorities right.	占这个世界大部分人口的贫困人口急需解决的问题并非气候变化。


The urgent problem of the poor majority of this world is not climate change.	他们的问题更为基本：不要死于那些可以轻易预防的疾病；


Their problems are more basic: not dying from easily preventable diseases; not being malnourished from lack of simple micronutrients; not being prevented from exploiting opportunities in the global economy by lack of free trade.	不要因为缺乏某种普通的微量元素而营养不良； 不要因为没有自由贸易而被全球经济的种种机会拒之门外。


We can prevent HIV by handing out condoms and improving health education.	我们可以通过分发安全套和改进健康教育来预防HIV艾滋病。


We can prevent millions from dying from malnutrition simply by distributing vitamin supplements.	我们可以就通过发送维他命补充品来防止成千上百万人死于营养不良。


These are not space-age technologies, but staple goods that the world needs.	这些并不是太空时代的技术，而是世界所需要的必备物资。


Doing the best things first would be a great investment in the planet’s future.	首先做最好的事情将是对这个星球未来的一项伟大投资。


If we are serious about solving the world’s most serious challenges, we owe it to ourselves to set the right priorities.	如果我们抱着严肃的态度解决世界最严峻的挑战，我们就可以把确定正确的优先权归功于我们自己。


Anchoring the Arab Awakening	锚定阿拉伯觉醒国家


LONDON – The economic situation in the countries of the so-called Arab Awakenings is deteriorating quickly.	伦敦—所谓阿拉伯觉醒（Arab Awakening）国家的经济状况正在快速恶化。


Egypt is running low on cash – before recent rescue loans, currency reserves covered less than three months of imports – and Egyptians are hoarding fuel and foodstuffs in anticipation of future shortages.	埃及现金告急——在最近的援助贷款之前，货币储备只能维持不到三个月的进口——预料会出现未来短缺的埃及人纷纷囤积燃料和食品。


More frequent and longer-lasting power outages foretell worse to come in an economy already struggling with mass unemployment, widespread exclusion, and deep pockets of poverty.	停电越来越频繁、时间越来越长，这表明这个正在经受大规模失业、普遍的排斥感和大量贫困的国家境况还会继续恶化。


Short-term macroeconomic stability is the immediate priority in Egypt and the other Arab Awakening countries.	短期宏观经济稳定是奇迹和其他阿拉伯觉醒国家当下最要紧的事项。


In the medium term, however, the viability of the current order is at stake – and not only in these countries, but across the rest of North Africa and the Middle East.	但是，从中期看，当前秩序的可行性才是重大问题——不仅阿拉伯觉醒国家是如此，整个北非和中东地区都是如此。


With so much at stake, Majid Jafar of UAE-based Crescent Petroleum was right to worry at the recent World Economic Forum on the Middle East and North Africa at the Dead Sea.	兹事体大，阿联酋新月石油公司（Crescent Petroleum）的贾法尔（Majid Jafar）在最近的死海中东和北非世界经济论坛（World Economic Forum on the Middle East and North Africa）上提出的担忧是正确的。


His proposal of an Arab Stabilization Plan, inspired by the post-1945 Marshall Plan in Western Europe, is laudable.	受1945年西欧马歇尔计划的启发，他提出了一个阿拉伯稳定计划（Arab Stabilization Plan），颇值得赞赏。


The imperative for large-scale coordinated action is overwhelming.	大规模合作行动的需要是迫切的。


But is the Marshall Plan the right model?	但马歇尔计划是正确的模式吗？


The Marshall Plan was a macroeconomic strategy involving massive capital transfers to help reconstruct the war-ravaged industrial capacity and infrastructure of economies with well-developed institutions.	马歇尔计划是一套宏观经济战略，包括大规模资本转移以帮助制度发展良好的国家重建被战争摧毁的工业产能和基础设施。


But what the Arab region needs are micro-oriented, project-based, and governance-heavy investments conditioned on deep reform of a business environment that is generally considered among the worst in the world.	但阿拉伯地区需要的是基于项目的微观导向大手笔治理投资，这必须以商业环境的深度改革为条件，该地区的商业环境被公认为世界最差。


In a joint report on the competitiveness of the Arab countries, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Economic Forum call for urgent institutional reform to support private-sector growth. Excessive red tape and ineffective enforcement of competition policy and governance rules are hampering entrepreneurship throughout the region.	在关于阿拉伯国家竞争力的联合报告中，欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD）和世界经济论坛呼吁立刻实施制度改革以支持私人部门增长。


Massive investments are also needed in education to eradicate deep pockets of illiteracy, raise overall skill levels, and better match skills to the demands of the market.	过多的繁文缛节和效率低下的竞争政策推行和治理规则正在摧毁该地区的企业家精神。


Perhaps surprisingly, there is widespread consensus in the Arab Awakening countries that the private sector is central to sustained job creation and growth.	也许令人惊讶的是，阿拉伯觉醒国家间有一个广泛的共识——私人部门是持续就业创造和增长的核心。


We saw this recently when the EBRD, together with the British-based organization Forward Thinking, conducted a closed-door workshop for 27 leading representatives of parties from across the political spectrum in the region.	这可以从最近EBRD和英国组织前瞻思考（Forward Thinking）组织的一次由该地区政坛各党派的27位高级代表参与的闭门研讨会中一窥端倪。


Two days of intensive discussions revealed important differences in perspective, but also many commonalities.	两天的激烈讨论揭露了许多观点差异，但也不乏共同点。


Private-sector development clearly means different things to different people.	私人部门发展显然对不同的人有着不同的意义。


The parties on the right largely embrace free-market thinking, while Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and its kindred parties in Libya and Tunisia are deeply sceptical of the state, which they view as bloated, inept, and ultimately corrupt.	右翼党派大多持有自由市场思维，而埃及的穆斯林兄弟会及其在利比亚和突尼斯的类似党派对国家持有深深的怀疑，它们认为国家臃肿、笨拙且极其腐败。


Moreover, the existing banks have failed to serve these parties’ small-business and farming constituencies.	此外，现有银行无法对这些党派的小企业和农场选区提供很好的服务。


Achieving ambitious goals for inclusive growth and job creation quickly without an enabling state and without using the banking system will be extremely difficult.	在没有赋权型国家和不使用银行系统的情况下实现包容性增长和就业创造的宏伟目标是极其困难的。


Without question, the main responsibility for building these countries’ political systems and reforming their economies rests with their citizens.	毫无疑问，建设这些国家政治制度和改革这些国家经济的主要责任在于它们的人民。


Outside intervention has left too many scars in the public’s collective memory.	外部干预给公共集体记忆留下了太多的伤疤。


But the region can look to the successful transition in Central Europe and the powerful anchor for reforms provided by these countries’ accession to the European Union.	但该地区可以取经中欧和成功转型和这些国家加入欧盟所获得的强大的锚。


Countries like Hungary and Poland can hardly be accused of having a hidden agenda when they share their development experience.	在分享发展经验时，匈牙利和波兰等国家几乎没有可隐瞒的日程。


Much can also be learned from countries like Turkey, which has managed to create a dynamic and innovative private sector.	从土耳其等国家身上也可以学到很多，土耳其成功地创造了活力和创新力十足的私人部门。


The good news is that the economies of the Arab Awakening countries do not suffer from the deep distortions that characterized post-communist Europe.	好消息是阿拉伯觉醒国家的经济并没有经历后共产主义欧洲所经历的深度扭曲。


Many of the early reforms have already been implemented, and reasonably sophisticated banking systems are in place.	许多早期改革已经实施，相当成熟的银行系统也已经建立。


In post-communist Europe, banks had to be built from scratch out of the rubble of socialism.	而后共产主义欧洲还需要在社会主义的废墟中建设它们的银行。


As a result, while political uncertainty will take its toll on economic growth, the Arab Awakening countries should not have to face a transitional recession, as post-communist Europe did in the 1990’s.	因此，尽管政治不确定性仍扼着经济增长的咽喉，但阿拉伯觉醒国家不会面临后共产主义欧洲在20世纪90年代所面临的转型衰退。


On the other hand, they are unlikely to benefit from the subsequent robust growth that most European transition countries experienced.	另一方面，它们也无法如大部分欧洲转型国家那样从随后的稳健增长中获益。


Jafar is right that the Arab Awakening countries need a plan.	贾法尔说阿拉伯觉醒国家需要一个计划，这是正确的。


But it should be a plan for private-sector-led inclusive growth, supported by efforts in the rest of the Arab world and in the EU.	但这个计划应该是由私人部门推动包容性增长、受阿拉伯世界其他部分和欧盟支持的计划。


Most critically, it must be a plan owned by the countries themselves and based on an approach that recognizes the critical roles of an enabling state and a catalytic financial sector.	更关键的是，这个计划应该是由各国自己所有、以承认赋权型国家和催化剂式金融部门的关键作用为基础的计划。


The ongoing socio-political transition, underpinned by widespread public recognition of the need for change, provides a historic opportunity to embark on growth-enhancing reforms.	以公众广泛意识到变革需要为基础的方兴未艾的社会-政治转型提供了一个采取强化增长的改革的历史性机会。


The Right to Die	死亡的权力


On December 21, an Italian doctor, Mario Riccio, disconnected a respirator that was keeping Piergiorgio Welby alive.	12月21日，意大利医生马里奥·列奇关闭了维持韦尔比生命的呼吸机。


Welby, who suffered from muscular dystrophy and was paralyzed, had battled unsuccessfully in the Italian courts for the right to die.	韦尔比此前饱受肌肉萎缩折磨并导致瘫痪，又在意大利法庭上力争死亡的权力未果。


After Riccio gave him a sedative and switched off the respirator, Welby said “thank you” three times to his wife, his friends, and his doctor. Forty-five minutes later, he was dead.	在列奇给他镇静剂并关闭呼吸机后，韦尔比向妻子、朋友和医生说了三遍“谢谢”，45分钟过后，他与世长辞。


Welby’s request to die was widely publicized in Italy, where it led to heated debate.	韦尔比要求死亡一事在意大利有诸多报道，并引发了热烈的讨论。


At the time of writing, it is unclear whether Riccio will be charged with any offense.	在我写这篇文章的时候，我不清楚列奇是否将会面临指控。


At least one Italian politician has called for his arrest on a charge of homicide.	至少有一位意大利政治家呼吁以杀人罪逮捕他。


Welby’s death raises two questions, which need to be distinguished.	韦尔比提出了需要澄清的两大问题。


One is whether a person has a right to refuse life-sustaining medical treatment.	第一，人们是否有权拒绝维持生命的医疗手段？


The other is whether voluntary euthanasia is ethically defensible.	第二，自愿的安乐死是否在道德上合情合理？


A patient’s informed consent should be a prerequisite for all medical treatment, as long as the patient is a competent adult in a position to make a decision.	病人的同意应该是一切医疗手段的前提，只要这个病人是有完全行为能力的成年人，并且处于可以自己做决定的状态。


Forcing medical treatment on a competent adult patient who does not want it is tantamount to assault.	强迫一个有完全行为能力的成年人接受他不愿接受的医疗手段，就等同于侵犯人身罪。


We may think that the patient is making the wrong decision, but we should respect his or her right to make it.	我们也许会想，这个病人做出的决定是错误的，但我们应该尊重他或她的决定。


That right is recognized in most countries, but not, apparently, in Italy.	这样的权力已经被很多国家承认，但显然没有在意大利被承认。


Even the Roman Catholic Church has long held that there is no obligation to use “extraordinary” or “disproportionate” means to prolong life – a view reiterated in the “Declaration on Euthanasia” issued by the Sacred Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith and approved by Pope John Paul II in 1980.	即便罗马天主教会在很长时间以来也认为没有义务使用“特殊”或者“不成比例”的手段以维持生命——这一观点重申了1980年由传信会颁布并由教皇约翰·保罗二世认可的《关于安乐死之宣言》 。


That document states that to refuse a burdensome medical treatment “is not the equivalent of suicide.”	这一宣言中称拒绝成为负担的医疗手段“并不等于自杀”。


On the contrary, such a refusal “should be considered an acceptance of the human condition, or a wish to avoid the application of a medical procedure disproportionate to the results that can be expected, or a desire not to impose excessive expense on the family or the community.”	相反，这样的拒绝“应被视为是对于人类状态的一种接受，或者是对不当治疗可能引起的结果的回避，或者是不给家庭或者群体造成更多负担的一种愿望。 ”


That description applies well to Welby’s decision.	这种描述很适用于韦尔比的决定。


On this view, Riccio was doing what anyone should have been prepared to do for Welby, who was paralyzed and unable to implement his refusal of a burdensome medical treatment.	在这一事件中，列奇做了任何人都可能为韦尔比做的事，因为韦尔比已经瘫痪，无法自己拒绝这种成为负担的医疗手段。


If the Welby case falls on the right side of the line drawn by Roman Catholic doctrine, the deeper question is whether Church doctrine draws the line in a place that makes sense.	如果韦尔比的例子符合罗马天主教的教义，那么还有一个更深层的问题，亦即罗马天主教育如此的教义是否恰当？


If an incurably ill patient can refuse burdensome treatment, knowing that this refusal will mean his or her death, why should an incurably ill patient who is not being kept alive by any medical treatment, but finds that the illness itself makes life burdensome, be unable to seek assistance in escaping that burden?	如果不能治愈的病人可以拒绝成为负担的治疗，并知道这种拒绝将导致其死亡，那为什么不能治愈的病人不要求维持生命，并认为这种疾病本身就是生命的负担，但却无法得到帮助来摆脱这种负担？


Defenders of Catholic teaching would answer that in the latter case, the patient intends to end his life, and that is wrong, whereas in the former case, the patient merely intends to avoid the additional burden that treatment brings.	罗马天主教的辩护者们会说，在后一种情况里，病人想要终止生命，这是错误的。 而在前一种情况里，病人只是想避免治疗所带来的额外负担。


Death is, of course, a foreseeable consequence of avoiding that burden, but it is a byproduct that is not directly intended.	死亡显然是避免这种负担所可以预见的结果，但只是病人并不希望的一个副作用罢了。


If the patient could avoid the burden and yet continue to live, that would be his choice.	如果病人可以避免负担又能继续生存，他一定会如此选择。


Welby should not have been helped to die, they might argue, because he expressly said that he wanted to die, not that he wanted to avoid a burdensome treatment.	他们也许会说，不应该帮助韦尔比死亡，因为他公开说希望去死，而并没有说他希望避免成为负担的治疗。


This distinction is dubious.	这种区分的界限非常模糊。


In both cases, the patient knowingly chooses a course of action that will lead to her or his death, rather than an alternative course of action that would have led to a longer but burdensome life.	在两种情况下，病人都是在知道的情况下选择一种可以导致他们死亡的行为，而没有选择去延长他们已成负担的生命。


By focusing on the narrower intention to refuse burdensome treatment, rather than the broader implications of the choice, the Roman Catholic Church is able to avoid the inhumane implication that patients must always accept life-prolonging treatment, no matter how painful or costly such treatment may be.	强调了狭义的拒绝带来负担的治疗手段，而没有强调这一选择更广阔的涵义，罗马天主教会确实避免了不人道的涵义，亦即病人必须接受维持生命的治疗，不管这有多痛苦有多高的代价。


But it does so at the cost of rendering incoherent its own vigorous opposition to assisted suicide and voluntary euthanasia.	但这一做法与教会做极力反对的辅助自杀以及自愿安乐死确实有出入的。


Many countries recognize a legal right to refuse medical treatment.	很多国家接受拒绝医疗手段的权力。


But only in the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, and the American state of Oregon are physicians permitted to assist a patient in ending his or her life by means other than withdrawing life-sustaining medical treatment.	但仅在荷兰、比利时、瑞士和美国的俄勒冈州才允许医生停止维持生命的治疗，以帮助病人结束他们的生命。


The Netherlands, in particular, has been subjected to a relentless campaign of vilification.	尤其针对荷兰，已经有很激烈的诋毁运动。


Critics allege that the legalization of voluntary euthanasia has led to a breakdown of trust in the medical profession and all sorts of other dire consequences.	批评者们宣称，自愿安乐死的合法话将会导致人们对医疗行业缺乏信任并引发各种其他的严重结果。


But if these allegations are true, no one has told the Dutch.	但是，如果这些说法属实，没有一个来自荷兰。


Despite a change of government in the Netherlands since voluntary euthanasia was legalized, no effort has been made to repeal the measure.	自从自愿安乐死合法化以后，荷兰政府换届，但却没有取消自愿安乐死的任何努力。


There is simply no public support for such a move.	显然没有取消安乐死的公众支持。


The Dutch know how voluntary euthanasia is practiced in their country, they know that legal euthanasia has improved, rather than harmed, their medical care, and they want the possibility of assistance in dying, if they should want and need it.	荷兰人知道自愿安乐死在他们国家里的实施情况，他们知道合法的安乐死改进了而不是危害了他们的医疗。 他们希望有人能够帮助他们死亡，如果他们希望并且需要的话。


Isn’t that a choice that everyone should have?	难道这不是每一个人都应该享有的一种选择吗？


The Right to Equality, Then and Now	平等权之今昔谈


LONDON – Following weeks of financial and economic turmoil, public debate has finally turned to the horrific potential human ramifications of the collapse of the global financial system.	伦敦 - 继数周的金融和经济动荡之后，公众讨论终于转到了全球金融体系崩溃的可怕的并潜在的对于人类影响的方面上来。


Comparisons and contrasts with the Great Depression of the 1930’s have inevitably become a central part of that discourse – and rightly so.	和1930年代经济大萧条时期的比较和对比，不可避免地成了讨论的中心话题-而且这是对的。


There is much that the world can and must learn now from the lowest point of the twentieth century.	现在的世界能够而且必须从20世纪的最低点学到很多。


Above all, we have got to heed the proven need for applying social – as well as economic – interventions in a time of economic crisis.	总之，我们必须在经济危机时进行社会以及经济方面的干预，且这样做已被证明是必需的。


Recession and depression can lead to exclusion and, at worst, persecution of societies’ most vulnerable groups.	经济的衰退和大萧条可能导致对社会最脆弱的群体的排斥； 在最坏的情况下，导致对他们的迫害。


That is why the United Nations Declaration on Human Rights was adopted in 1948, and why we need, more urgently than ever, to establish universal equality for all human beings.	这就是为什么联合国在1948年通过了人权宣言，也是为什么我们比以往任何时候都更迫切需要建立人人平等的普世价值观。


Nations must act now to ensure that everyone – regardless of wealth, ethnicity, sex, or religion – has the same rights, and that these rights are enshrined in laws at the time they are enacted.	各国现在必须采取行动，以确保每个人-不论其财富、种族、性别或宗教的不同-拥有相同的权利，且这些权利在法律颁布的时候已包含其中。


This October, 128 leading experts in the fields of human rights and equality from 44 countries launched a landmark attempt to build on the epochal 1948 UN declaration to establish universal human equality.	今年10月， 来自44个国家的128名人权和平等领域的著名专家，开展了一项里程碑式工作，我们要在1948年联合国具有划时代意义的声明的基础上，建立普遍的人类平等。


We did so by launching a “Declaration on Principles of Equality” – a declaration that builds on its historical precursor to establish, for the first time ever, general legal principles that define equality as a basic human right.	我们通过颁布“平等原则的宣言”来开展这项工作。 这项基于其历史基础之上的宣言，有史以来第一次建立了普遍的法律原则，把平等界定为一项基本人权。


Based on a total of 27 principles, the Declaration reflects a moral and professional consensus among human rights and equality experts and is the product of more than a year’s work led by the United Kingdom-based Equal Rights Trust.	基于27个原则之上，宣言反映了人权和平等问题的专家们在道德和专业上的共识，这是由总部设在英国的平等权利信托机构领导的一年多来的工作的结晶。


Needless to say, reaching a consensus among such a diverse group of people from around the world was not easy.	不用说，要在来自世界各地如此多样化的一群人中达成共识，并不容易。


Equality means different things to different people – and at different times.	平等在不同的时代对不同的人意味着不同的事情。


Interpretations largely depend on the practical realities of the social, cultural, and political environment in which the principles of equality operate.	其解释在很大程度上取决于平等原则运作中的社会、文化和政治环境的实际现状。


All signatories to our new Declaration agreed that incitement to violence that is motivated by race or gender or sexual orientation constitutes a serious violation of the right to equality.	我们这项新宣言所有的签署者都同意，因种族、性别或性倾向而煽动暴力的行为，严重侵犯了平等权。


Some American civil rights lawyers, out of natural deference to the United States Constitution’s First Amendment were, however, reluctant to sign up to this principle unless it was qualified by a reference to the threat of “imminent” violence.	一些美国民权律师出于对美国宪法第一修正案的自然的顺从，不愿意签署这一原则，除非它因涉及“迫在眉睫”的暴力威胁而符合条件。


Some participants from the developing countries wanted poverty to be declared a proscribed basis of discrimination, while others argued that poverty is far too vague a concept to be the subject of legal rights and duties.	一些来自发展中国家的与会者希望把贫困宣布为被禁的歧视的基础，而其他人则认为，贫困的概念太过模糊，因而不能作为法定权利和义务的一项内容。


Some contended that absolute poverty differs from relative poverty, or asked what responsibility individuals have to raise themselves out of poverty through education and work?	而有些人争辩道，绝对贫困有别于相对贫困，或责问人们应该有怎样的责任，通过受教育和工作，把自身从贫困中解救出来。


These participants argued that specific legal duties, such as the right to a minimum wage and the right to vocational training, are more effective than the vague extension of anti-discrimination law to cover poverty as such.	这些与会者认为，具体的法定义务，如最低工资权和职业培训权，比起反歧视法含糊的延伸以包括贫困等等，会更为奏效。


The result was a compromise between these two groups.	其结果是在这两个群体间达成了妥协。


For all these differences of opinion, we are unanimous in the belief that, if the Principles of Equality are to be effective in our age, they have to go well beyond the negative anti-discrimination model that was adopted in the US and Europe in the second half of the twentieth century.	尽管存在这些不同意见，我们都一致相信，如果“平等原则”要在我们这个时代奏效，这些原则必须远远超越美国和欧洲在二十世纪下半叶所采取的消极的反歧视模式。


They must, instead, encourage nations positively to promote the principle of equal rights in keeping with current interpretations of international obligation.	相反地，它们必须积极鼓励各国推广平等权原则，并遵守目前对国际义务的阐述。


The declaration that we have developed regards equality as a “freestanding right.” In other words, it exists as a separate right, and is not dependent on the violation of some other legal right, such as the right to education.	我们制定的该宣言把平等视为一种“独立的权利”，也就是说，它最为一种独立存在的权利，它并不依赖于对某一种法定权利，如受教育权，的侵犯。


It follows, then, that the right to equality could be violated even where another legal right – to, say, housing or employment – does not exist.	也就是说，即使在另一项法定权利，比如住房权或就业权，不存在的地方，平等权也可以被侵犯。


The right to equality would exist in all areas of activity regulated by domestic, international or regional law.	平等权存在于所有受国内、国际或区域的法律所管制的活动领域内。


It would apply to everyone, regardless of nationality or statelessness, including refugees and asylum seekers, and it would place a positive obligation on states to “promote and fulfill” the right to equality.	这将适用于每个人，不论其属于哪个国籍或有无国籍，包括难民和寻求庇护者。 它给了国家一个积极意义上的责任以“促进并实现”平等权。


A new declaration was badly needed when we began work on it one year ago.	当我们一年前着手此项工作的时候，世界正急需一项新的声明。


Today, it is crucial if we are to prevent an even greater chasm from dividing the world’s haves and have-nots.	今天，如果我们要防止出现更大的鸿沟分裂世界上的富人和穷人，这项声明是至关重要的。


The Right Way to Beat Chinese Inflation	解决中国通胀的正确途径


WASHINGTON, DC – High inflation is threatening social stability in China, soaring from 3.3% in March 2007 to 8.3% in March 2008.	华盛顿--中国的通货膨胀率从2007年三月的3. 3%上升到2008年三月的8.


As a result, the People’s Bank of China has raised interest rates substantially and increased banks’ reserve requirements.	3%，对中国的社会稳定构成了威胁。 因此，中国人民银行已经大幅度提高利率和各银行的储备金水平。


The trick for the Chinese government will be to quell inflation in a way that does not compromise its long-term goal of continued strong economic growth.	中国政府的难题是在不损害其长期持续强劲经济增长的情况下治理通货膨胀。


The risks are high.	这里充满了风险。


China’s accelerating inflation reflects a similar climb in its GDP growth rate, from the already high 11% in 2006 to 11.5 % in 2007.	中国不断加速的通货膨胀与其GDP增长率同步，从2006年已经很高的11%上升到2007年的11.


The proximate cause of price growth since mid-2007 is the appearance of production bottlenecks as domestic demand exceeds supply in an increasing number of sectors, such as power generation, transportation, and intermediate-goods industries.	5%。 2007年中以来价格上涨的直接原因是，随着国内越来越多的部门，例如发电、交通以及中间产品产业需求超出供应，从而出现了生产瓶颈。


Sustained robust growth and rising aggregate demand have also caused production bottlenecks outside of China, most notably in the agricultural commodity and mining sectors, which have helped lift oil prices to more than $100 per barrel.	持续强劲的增长以及上扬的总体需求还在中国以外的地方造成生产瓶颈，最主要的是在农业商品和采矿行业。 这就把石油价格推到了100多美元一桶。


Adding to these woes are two other inflationary factors: first, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS, or “blue-ear disease”) has been killing pigs – China’s main meat source – nationwide, and, second, terrible storms in January reduced the supply of grain and vegetables.	首先是猪繁殖与呼吸综合症或称猪蓝耳病在全国范围内造成大量猪的死亡，而猪则是中国的主要肉类来源。 第二，一月份的大雪灾降低了农作物和蔬菜的供应。


In these circumstances, continuing to raise borrowing costs would be a mistake.	在这种形势下，继续提高借贷费用将会是一个错误。


To be sure, the prolonged rapid increase in Chinese aggregate demand has been fueled by an investment boom, as well as a growing trade surplus.	的确，投资繁荣以及不断增加的贸易顺差造成了中国总体需求持续快速增长。


Thus, lowering inflation would require reducing the growth rate (if not the level) of these two demand components.	因此，降低通货膨胀就要求降低这两大需求要素的增长率(如果不是水平的话)。


But Chinese policymakers should focus more on reducing the trade surplus and less on reducing investment spending – that is, they should emphasize renminbi (RMB) appreciation over higher interest rates to cool the economy.	但是中国的决策者应该更加关注减少贸易盈余，不必过多地减少投资。 也就是说，他们应该比提高利率更加强调人民币的升值以便给经济降温。


A sizeable reduction in aggregate demand through RMB appreciation is achievable without being imprudent, because the current-account surplus in 2007 was 9.5 % of GDP.	通过人民币升值来大幅度减少总体需求并非草率，是可以实现的，这是因为2007年的经常项目顺差是GDP的9. 5%。


Investment (especially in infrastructure in backward areas and social investments) should not bear the brunt of the expenditure squeeze, because today’s investment is also tomorrow’s growth in production capacity; and the production of more goods tomorrow would reduce inflation.	投资(特别是在不发达地区的基础设施和社会投资) 并不应该成为开支紧缩的牺牲品，因为当今的投资可以提高今后的生产能力； 而今后生产更多的产品将会减少通胀。


Using RMB appreciation as the primary tool to fight inflation implies accepting a temporarily higher unemployment rate now in exchange for a permanently lower unemployment rate in the future.	使用人民币升值作为解决通胀的主要办法意味着接受现今暂时的高失业率，从而换取未来永久性的低失业率。


This is because manufactured exports are typically more labor-intensive than investment projects.	这是因为制造业出口通常要比投资项目更为劳动力密集型。


As a result, a RMB1 billion reduction in exports would create more unemployment than a RMB1 billion reduction in investment spending.	结果，出口减少十亿人民币所造成的失业将会超过投资减少十亿人民币所造成的失业。


But tomorrow’s capacity expansion from today’s investment would mean a permanent increase in the number of jobs created from tomorrow onward.	但是来自于当今投资的未来生产能力的扩大意味着今后创造的工作岗位永久性地增加。


Nevertheless, China must be careful when implementing RMB appreciation.	但是，中国必须小心实行人民币升值。


Policy makers should closely monitor potential changes in the economic conditions in the G-7.	决策者应该密切关注工业七强国家经济状况的潜在变化。


A deep recession in the United States resulting from the sub-prime crisis would significantly lower Chinese exports and cut the prices of oil and other primary commodities.	美国由于次级房屋贷款危机而引发的重度衰退将会大幅度降低中国的出口并且降低石油和其他初级产品的价格。


In that case, a large RMB appreciation undertaken now would be overkill.	在这一情况下，现在就大幅度提升人民币汇率就有失偏颇。


Moreover, the authorities should recognize that RMB appreciation is unlikely to reduce US-China trade tensions.	而且，中国当局应该认识到，人民币升值不大可能减少中美贸易紧张关系。 看一看二十世纪八十年代对日本的挤压经历。


Consider the experience of Japan-bashing in the 1980’s, when the Yen-Dollar end-year exchange rate plunged from 248 in 1984 to 162 in 1986, and then to 123 in 1988.	当时，日元和美元的汇率从1984年的248下降到1986年的162，随后在1988年降到123。 尽管日本的总体经常项目顺差大幅下降，从1985年占GDP的3.


While Japan’s overall current-account surplus declined significantly, from 3.7% of GDP in 1985 to 2.7% in 1988, the overall US current-account deficit only fell from 2.8% of GDP to 2.4%, because Japanese companies started investing in production facilities in Southeast Asia for export to the US.	7%下降到1988年的2. 7%，但是美国的总体经常项目赤字仅仅从GDP的2.


So Japan-bashing continued under a new guise: the additional demand that Japan must remove its “structural impediments” to import.	这是因为日本公司开始在东南亚投资生产设施用于向美国出口。 因此对日本的挤压换了一个面目进行，也就是日本必须消除其对进口的“结构性阻碍”。


In short, substantial RMB appreciation would reduce the bilateral US-China trade deficit and China’s overall trade surplus significantly, but it would do little to reduce the overall US trade deficit.	简而言之，人民币持续升值将会大幅度减少美中双边贸易逆差和降低中国的总体贸易顺差，但是对于降低美国的总体贸易逆差却无能为力。


In the absence of a generalized appreciation of all Asian currencies and unchanged American policies, possibly only a deep recession could reduce the overall US current-account deficit.	在亚洲国家货币并不整体升值以及美国政策不变的情况下，可能只有大幅度经济衰退才会减少美国的整体经常项目赤字。


A stronger RMB can help only the overheated Chinese economy.	人民币升值仅仅可以帮助中国过热的经济。


And it has the virtue of doing so without hurting China’s future production capacity.	而且这样还不会破坏中���未来的生产能力。


The Right Way to Electric Cars	电动汽车发展的正确方向


NEW YORK – Excitement about electric cars abounds nowadays, but consider the number of existing gasoline-powered cars: about 850 million.	纽约——电动汽车的出现会让我们感到欣喜，但一想到现有的以汽油为动力汽车的数量：8亿5千万辆，我们可能就乐观不起来了。


It would take years of new-car sales to make a dent in that number.	如果电动汽车也要达到如此数量，恐怕还需许多年的努力。


That fact at first depressed Jiri Räsänen, a civil servant in Helsinki – but then it gave him and his friends a good idea. Why not keep the cars but replace their engines?	面对如此的现实，住在赫尔辛基的公务员Jiri Räsänen刚开始也同样感到沮丧，但随后他和他的朋友们想到了一个好主意：为什么不能在保留汽车的前提下，而只是更换发动机呢？


That idea would solve a lot of problems, starting not just with today’s installed base of cars, but with the installed base of car makers .	这样的想法不仅解决了现有汽车的问题，而且也给汽车生产厂家指出了一条新的出路。 目前，他们的日子并不好过。


Even though many of them are in trouble, it’s probably not the best time to start a new car company, either.	新车的销售量下滑的很厉害，如果他们另起炉灶，开设新工厂显然不是好时候。


Yet while the market for new cars has slowed dramatically, it could be a good time to start a business replacing gasoline engines with electric ones.	所以这正给我们一个机会，用电动引擎来替代汽油动力的汽车。


The group’s initiative, led by Räsänen, is called eCars - Now!	一项命名为“eCars - Now! ”的项目已经启动。


A small operation in Finland, it is less a company than a role model for companies that the team hopes will spring up worldwide.	该项目由Räsänen牵头，与其说是一个公司，不如说是一个在芬兰的项目小组，不过，目前，该项目正处于模型阶段，他们希望通过推广此项目，以在全球范围得到共鸣。


Borrowing from the open-software movement, Räsänen and his colleagues want to make the idea and the basic designs free, and encourage lots of companies all over the world to implement it locally.	受到开放软件的启示，Räsänen 和他的同事希望将他们的思路和基本设计方案公开，鼓励全世界的公司在此基础上进行本土化设计。


Some companies will make batteries or electric engines or retrofit kits; others will retrofit gasoline cars with the new engines – a great job opportunity for unemployed auto workers.	一些公司可以生产电动汽车的电池，电动发动机或是其他款式翻新的配件，其他公司则可以专注研究如何将新的发动机来替代汽油发动机。 ——同样，这给那些已经被裁员的汽车员工提供了一个很好的工作机会。


eCars- Now! hopes to foster an ecosystem of car service workers and parts makers similar to the ecosystem of open-software programmers and generic computer hardware.	正如开放软件和通用电脑硬件产品的生态系统那样，eCars- Now! 也希望给汽车服务商和配件商培育出一个生态系统。


Of course, the parallels end at some point, because batteries and engines aren’t quite the equivalent of PCs, but the ethos is much the same.	虽然两者也有一些区别，因为电池和发动机不等同于电脑产品，但二者的原理是相同的。


Räsänen and his team started by measuring the potential demand for electric cars in Finland.	Räsänen 和他的团队开始调查芬兰人对电动汽车到底有多大的潜在需求。


“No one had done that before in Finland,” he recalls.	“在芬兰，这是一个从来没有人涉足的领域。


“We decided that if we could get 500 people to show interest in a converted car, we could demonstrate that the mass conversion scheme would make sense.”	”他说：“我们原来设想如果有500个客户对改装车感兴趣的话，我们的批量生产计划就可以实施了。 ”


It took eCars – Now! only 11 days to sign up 500 interested customers.	出乎他们的意料，仅仅用了11天就有500名客户表示对eCars – Now!


To be sure, they merely indicated interest; they did not send money.	感兴趣，并在网站上注册登记。


But the company’s Web site continues to attract new prospects, with 1,000 people now registered as likely or certain to buy such a vehicle.	当然，他们只是表示了意向，并没有真正的付钱。 目前，每天都有新的用户注册登记，现在有1000人注册。


The site also solicited advice on which car to convert.	网站同时也进行了问卷调查，询问什么型号的汽车可以被改装。


The Toyota Corolla was the first choice – hardly surprising since it is the leading car model in Finland (with 7% of the market).	结果是丰田的科罗拉获得首选——这也不奇怪，在芬兰它的市场占有率是7%，一直处于领先地位。


Just 15 months later, in May of this year, a retrofitted Corolla demo model with an engine from Detroit-based Azure Dynamics was on display at the Electric Vehicle Symposium, a trade show in Stavanger, Norway.	随后仅仅过了15个月，在今年5月的挪威斯塔万格市举办的商品交易会上，由底特律的Azure Dynamics生产的科罗拉的改装电动车模型在电动车展厅展出。


What will it take to make this idea work?	这样的想法是否会成功呢？


To some extent, it’s already working – by spreading.  Local efforts may succeed or fail based on the talents of local implementers.	从某种程度上来说，它已经获得了成功——通过世界各地各类人才的参与努力，经过多次失败成功后而不断取得进步。


In Italy, inventor Roberto Vezzi had a Smart-EV project along the same lines.	意大利的发明家罗伯特·维兹按照这样的思路研制出了eSmart car。


He has now joined the eCars – Now! movement, and his eSmart car will be upgraded with the open-source graphical user interface being developed for the eCorolla in Finland.	他随后加入了eCars – Now! 的计划，经过开放的图形用户界面的开发，他的eSmart car被升级为eCorolla ，在芬兰得以使用。


Other initiatives are springing up in Denmark, Latvia, Spain, and Turkey, says Räsänen.	Räsänen. 表示，该项目在丹麦，拉托维亚，西班牙和土耳其也蓬勃发展起来。


The group is now looking for an initial manufacturer/assembler for the retrofit kits (as opposed to the engines inside them). In the meantime, eCorolla and the eSmart will go through testing.	他的团队正在寻找合适的汽车厂家或是组装厂来安装他们研制的改装工具包（安装在汽车发动机的对面）,与此同时, eCorolla 和the eSmart也将通过了测试.


Overall, the economics make sense.	毕竟,只有一定规模才能产生经济效益。


Produced on an appropriate scale, a kit should cost about $20,000, including distribution costs and a profit margin.	如果有了一定的生产规模，这种改装包的售价是约为20，000美元，这包含了配送成本和一定的利润。


It should take about eight hours for two workers in a professional garage to install such a kit, or less than a week for the car-owner himself/herself (or, as they say, two weeks if the owner’s spouse “helps”).	至于安装该配件的时间，在专业的停车间里需要2个工人花8个小时完成。 对车主��说，大概需要不到一个星期的时间（或者说，如果有丈夫或妻子的“帮忙”，大概要花2周时间。


That’s considerably less than the cost of a new car – especially an electric one.	）这比买一辆新的汽车来说要便宜——特别是和购买一辆新的电动汽车比起来的话。


The real economic benefit, however, is in the cost savings thereafter.	真正的经济效益会在使用起来以后才会出现。


To be sure, a lot will depend on the availability of convenient charging stations, but they are starting to appear.	当然这要取决于充电站是否方便找到。 不过，现在已经这样的充电站开始慢慢地多起来了。


The project is deconstructing the car industry – probably in a more effective way than American government officials are doing in Detroit.	此项计划将对汽车行业也是一个有利的重组机会——或许比美国政府正在底特律进行的救助更为有效。


In Finland, at least, all you need from the government is a certificate of inspection, which costs about €100 ($135).	至少目前在芬兰，你只要花费100欧元（相当于135美元）从政府那些获得检测执照，就可以进行改装了。


If all goes well, a host of electric car-engine and retrofit kit makers will appear, serving different markets of existing car owners.	如果一切都顺利的话，市场上就会出现一批电动汽车引擎和改装配件包的制造厂商，以满足不同车主的需求。


Dealers and mechanics will install the batteries, comprising a new corps of workers devoted (indirectly) to cleaning up the environment and adding value to the installed base of cars.	经销商和技师将会负责安装电动车的电池，包括了后期新的工人清洁环境和改装车的后期维护工作。


Any far-sighted government could help not by subsidizing these efforts, but by buying up the old gasoline engines.	如果政府足够有远见的话，他们不仅会对改装车进行补贴，而且会回收旧的汽油发动机。


That provides an incentive to retrofitting companies, while competition for customers, rather than for subsidies, will encourage the various providers to be efficient.	扶植那些从事汽车改装的工厂。 随着改装厂的增多，竞争就会使得该行业越来越有效率。


(Many European governments currently have “cash-for-clunker” schemes that buy and destroy old cars; a cash-for-gas-engines scheme would make more sense by lowering costs and conserving the many car bodies that still work fine.)	（现在许多欧洲国家政府正在实施一个名为“补贴以旧换新的购车政策”，如果再推出“汽油发动机换取现金”方案，就会降低发动机置换的成本，使得车主考虑用电动发动机来更换目前还运行良好的汽油发动机。 ）


This project might have seemed quixotic a few years ago, but now it fits the times perfectly.	如果在几年前，此项计划听起来还有点不可思议。 但现在正是合适的时机。


It’s modest at a time when the world is in recession.	世界经济正处在萧条时期。


It’s energy- and environmentally- friendly at a time when concerns about global warming are growing.	由于全球气候变暖，环境保护问题越来越受到人们的重视。


And it’s distributed, at a time when the world is skeptical of leaders’ promises and people are realizing they have to do things for themselves.	随着各国领导人的承诺，人们日益感觉到应该为环保工作做一点什么事情的时候了。


If you want to start an electric engine company, learn how to retrofit a gasoline engine, or simply figure out what you could do with your own car, go to www.ecars-now.org .	如果你想要开一家电动汽车发动机的公司，了解如何改装汽油发动机，或只是想要了解如果改装自己的汽车，你可以访问www. ecars-now.


There may not yet be a ready-made solution for you unless you live in Finland, but that’s just the point: you can start a local version. If you build it, others will come!	如果你不住在芬兰，可能不容易获得便利的改装方法，不过，正式这样你才可以自行进行改装实验，一旦你行动起来，很多人就会效仿你的行为！


The Right Way to Rebuild Georgia	以正确的方式来重建格鲁吉亚


NEW YORK – At the recent donors’ meeting on Georgia, aid pledges rolled in, totaling $4.5 billion – about $1,000 per citizen of Georgia.	纽约-在最近举行的对格鲁吉亚的捐款人会议上，捐款意向滚滚不断，总计达到了4 5亿美元-大约每个格鲁吉亚公民就能获得10 00美元。


That’s the good news.	这是好消息。


The bad news is that the meeting was restricted to donors and Georgia’s government, with Transparency International criticizing its opaque decision-making process.	而坏消息是，这次会议只限于捐款人和格鲁吉亚政府参加，透明国际组织批评其决策过程不透明。


Lack of transparency and accountability in how money is spent in wars, and in the rebuilding that takes place after them, no longer play well with taxpayers.	在战争中以及在战后的重建中如何用钱，其透明度和问责制的缺乏，不再让纳税人感到满意。


In light of increasing global demand for aid and falling supply (down 12% over the last two years), its effective and transparent use is becoming more imperative.	在全球对援助的需求不断增加而援助额却减少（过去两年下降了12 ％ ）的情况下 ，有效和透明地使用援助资金正变得越来越至关重要。


And governments that are not accountable to their citizens will most likely fail in this regard.	对其公民不负责任的政府最有可能在这方面失败。


Before these “pledges” become “commitments,” donors should carefully examine Georgia’s economic development strategy and assess its plans for humanitarian and reconstruction aid.	在这些“意向”变成“承诺”之前 ，捐款人应认真审查格鲁吉亚的经济发展战略并评估其人道主义援助和重建援助的计划。


They should ask whether aid for Georgia contributes to peace and stability or, on the contrary, whether it will impede a political solution to the conflict and keep investors away.	他们应该问一下对格鲁吉亚的援助是否有助于和平与稳定，还是与此相反，会阻碍冲突的政治解决并让投资者望而却步。


Russia’s recent recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as separate republics, despite their de facto autonomous status within Georgia since the early 1990’s, will make it more difficult to find solutions to the problems of internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, and the resident population in the conflict zones.	尽管阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯自20世纪90年代初起就在格鲁吉亚境内获得了事实上的自治地位，但俄罗斯最近承认它们为独立的共和国，这将使得解决国内流离失所者（IDPs）、回返者和在冲突地区的居民等问题变得更加困难。


But reintegration of conflict-ridden groups into productive activities is a sine qua non for political, economic, and social stability.	但是，使被冲突所困的人们重返社会并纳入生产活动，是政治、经济和社会稳定的一个先决条件。


The UN reckons that countries that fail in this endeavor have an even chance of reverting to conflict.	联合国认为，做不到这一点的国家，很有可能会回到冲突状态。


So, has Georgia’s development model been conducive to dynamic and inclusive growth, that is, growth that leads to productive investment, innovative practices, and widespread job creation?	所以，格鲁吉亚的发展模式是否会带来强劲和全面的增长，也就是说，增长是否会带来富有成果的投资、创新的实践和就业机会的普遍增长？


To be sure, the International Monetary Fund and United States officials have recognized Georgia’s unquestionable success in adopting sound macroeconomic policies and reforms to improve the business climate.	确实，国际货币基金组织和美国的官员们都承认格鲁吉亚在实行健全的宏观经济政策和改革以改善商业环境方面，取得了无可置疑的成功。


Foreign investors have responded by pouring resources into the country.	外国投资者对此作出的反应是，把大量资源投进了该国。


With capital inflows amounting to 20% of GDP in the years before the war, annual economic growth jumped to over 12% in 2007, with the country experiencing almost 40% growth since 2003.	战争爆发前的几年内，资本流入量高达占国内生产总值的20 ％，2007年的全年经济增长跃升至12 ％以上。 自2003年以来，格鲁吉亚经历了近40 ％的增长 。


But rapid growth is not enough.	但是，仅有快速增长是不够的。


Georgia has failed to create the jobs, dynamism, and inclusion that are necessary for a peaceful society.	格鲁吉亚未能创造和平社会所必需的就业机会、活力和包容性。


Despite some recent diversification, investment flows have been heavily tilted to construction of oil and gas pipelines and other large international projects.	尽管投资最近出现了一些多样化，但已严重倾斜向建设石油和天然气管道及其它大型国际项目。


Moreover, military expenditure has increased from 1% to 7% of GDP since 2003, drawing resources away from human development into unproductive investment.	此外，军事开支自2003年以来从占国内生产总值的1 ％增至7 ％，这把资源从人类发展中抽走，用在了非生产性投资上。


Unemployment is high, income disparities have worsened, and corruption remains widespread, notwithstanding important improvements in recent years.	尽管最近几年有了重要的改善，格鲁吉亚的失业率居高不下，收入差距一直不断恶化，腐败现象仍普遍存在。


Despite official statistics that place less than a third of the population below the poverty line, experts reckon that roughly half the population is trapped in poverty, amid a large urban-rural gap.	尽管官方统计数字只有不到三分之一的人口在贫困线以下，专家们则认为，大约有一半人口陷于贫困之中，而且该国还有着巨大的城乡差距。


The challenge for Georgia is to find a solution to the IDPs by rehabilitating infrastructure, housing, and other services, and by facilitating job creation so that the conflict-affected population’s living conditions can improve.	通过恢复基础设施、住房和其它服务设施，并通过促进创造就业机会，使受冲突影响的人们的生活条件得以改善，来解决国内流离失所者的问题，这些事格鲁吉亚所面临的挑战。


The UN High Commission for Refugees forecasts that 73,000 of the roughly 127,000 IDPs created by the South Ossetian crisis will probably return to their place of origin by early winter.	联合国难民事务高级专员署预测， 南奥塞梯的危机所造成的大约十二万七千名流离失所者中的七万三千人可能会在初冬返回其原住地。


Given 220,000 IPDs from previous conflicts in the 1990’s now face fading prospects for a return to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia’s authorities must find a viable and permanent solution for roughly 6% of the population.	1990年代发生的冲突产生了二十二万国内流离失所者，现在他们返回阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯的希望越来越渺茫，格鲁吉亚当局必须为占总人口约6 ％的人们找到一个可行的永久的解决方案。


Moreover, capital flows, upon which Georgia is highly dependent, have been interrupted since the conflict started.	此外，格鲁吉亚高度依赖的资本流动，从冲突开始以来已经中断。


Without a solution to the IPD problem, efforts to strengthen political stability and security will fail.	如果找不到国内流离失所者问题的解决办法，旨在加强政治稳定和安全的努力将会落空。


And, in the absence of stability and security, the objective of the IMF’s $750 million stand-by arrangement to cover the “temporary external financing gap” and to sustain “the confidence of markets and investors” will not be met.	而且，没有稳定和安全的保证，国际货币基金组织的7. 5亿美元的用于解决“临时的外���融资缺口”并维持“市场和投资者的信心”的备用安排的目标将无法实现。


The challenge now is to redesign Georgia’s aid package to focus primarily on the provision of “reconstruction aid” that promotes investment and employment.	现在的挑战是，应重新设计格鲁吉亚的一揽子援助计划，并把主要重点放在提供能促进投资和就业的“重建援助资金”上 。


While “humanitarian aid” cannot be neglected, it should be recognized that such aid promotes consumption rather than investment, creating price distortions and work disincentives.	虽然不能忽视“人道主义援助”，但应该承认的是，这种援助促进的是消费，而不是投资，并会引起价格扭曲和不愿工作的懒惰情绪。


Georgia must be weaned from humanitarian aid as soon as the situation allows it.	一旦情况允许，格鲁吉亚必须尽快脱离人道主义援助。


Reconstruction aid to improve infrastructure, promote start-up companies, and reactivate micro- and small enterprises, services, mining, and other sectors, and to improve agricultural yields and irrigation, should start right away and should be the main focus of international aid commitments.	进行重建的援助工作必须立即开始，其目标是为了改善基础设施，催生创业公司，重新启动微型和小型企业、服务业、采矿业和其他行业，并提高农业产量和灌溉能力。 上述这些才应是国际援助承诺的重点。


Laissez-faire will not do it.	放任自流是达不到这些目标的。


Georgia’s government and donors should consider using aid to provide subsidies to private enterprises to encourage and lower the cost of employing IDPs.	格鲁吉亚政府和捐助者们应考虑使用援助资金向私人企业提供补贴，以鼓励和降低雇用国内流离失所者的成本。


Without inclusive and dynamic growth, sustainable peace will remain elusive, and, in the current environment of higher scrutiny and significant competing needs, donors will be hard pressed to justify committing the large financial aid package that they have pledged.	不具有包容性和充满活力的增长将使持久的和平难以实现。 而且，在目前审查更为严格、竞争更为激烈的环境下，捐助者们将难以说服自己真正掏出钱来把他们已经表达的巨额财政援助一揽子计划的捐助意愿付诸实现。


The Rise and Fall of Meritocracy	精英统治的起起落落


Meritocracy: the word sounds nothing but good. It means rule by those who have merit.	精英一词让人感觉良好，它也是事业有成者的代名词。


Such merit is usually understood to be academic achievement, a combination of talent and training.	这种成就通常来自学术方面，既靠先天的资质也靠后天的训练。


This is measured by academic degrees, which in turn are graded on merit: A, B, C, D, or First, Upper Second, Lower Second, Third.	学术头衔是衡量的标准，而头衔的取得也要看成绩：A、B、C、D或者一级、二级甲等、二级乙等、三级。


Who would not wish to live in a meritocracy?	谁不希望实行精英统治？


It is certainly preferable to a plutocracy, in which wealth determines status, or a gerontocracy, in which age leads one to the top, or even an aristocracy, in which what counts are inherited titles and properties.	这肯定好过富豪统治中的财富决定地位，也强过老人政治中的年龄决定尊卑。 甚至连贵族政治都难望其项背，因为决定贵族地位的不过是与生俱来的头衔和财产。


So meritocracy seems preferable, at least at first sight.	因此精英政治更富诱惑，至少乍一看的确如此。


But, on closer inspection, things are not so simple.	可这结论经不住推敲，事情远没有那么简单。


For many, France has long been the epitome of meritocracy.	在很多人的眼中，法国是精英政治的缩影。


Most of those in the top reaches of not only the civil service and the judiciary, but also politics, business, and academia used to be graduates of the famous grandes écoles .	不仅公务和立法机构的高层官员，就连政治、企业和学术界的资深人物都是著名高等学府的毕业生。


Many then went through the rigorous training to become inspecteurs de finance , senior state officials.	很多人为成为国家高官接受了严格的培训。


Yet the French elites today are increasingly held in suspicion, and even reviled, by part of the population.	但今天的法国精英们却日益受到部分居民的质疑、甚至辱骂。


Certainly, French leaders are not immune to corruption. The uneasy relationship of money and politics has given rise to several high-profile scandals in recent years.	法国领导人当然也没能对腐败免疫，金钱和政治之间的尴尬关系造就了近几年几桩引人瞩目的丑闻。


It is no longer clear that France’s highly educated leaders are better able to run the country’s affairs more efficiently and more honestly than others.	受过高等教育的法国领袖不见得就能更有效率地管理国家事务，也未必就比其它人更加诚实。


Japan’s meritocratically selected bureaucracy, too, faces much the same public opprobrium.	从精英中选拔的日本官僚体制也面对着公众同样的责难。


Indeed, the bureaucracy itself is often blamed for the country’s rigidity and ongoing stagnation.	实际上，正是这种官僚体制造成了国家的僵化和停滞。


In Britain, a government heading for its third term in office has said more than once that it wants the country to be “meritocratic.”	英国政府即将实现三届连任，他们不只一次地重申：希望国家实行精英统治。


Chancellor Gordon Brown, Tony Blair’s heir apparent, is particularly eager to go down that road.	托尼·布莱尔公认的继承人，英国大臣戈登·布朗，对选择这条道路充满了激情。


Yet it was a British social scientist (and Labour Party politician), Michael Young, who forty years ago wrote a much debated book entitled The Rise of the Meritocracy .	英国社会科学家迈克尔·杨40年前写成了一部备受争议的著作，书名是“精英的崛起”。


His was not a description of the road to the promised land, but a dystopian vision of almost Orwellian dimensions.	在他笔下不是什么通往希望之地的捷径，而是描写了受极权统治而失去人性的乌托邦式的反面未来。


Meritocracy was Young’s “1984.”	杨在另一部著作《1984》中描述了精英领导。


Two central questions raised by Young remain topical today.	杨所提出的两个中心问题至今还颇具典型意义。


First, if academic achievement is the entry ticket to power and status, what about the rest?	首先，如果学术成就是通往权力和地位的晋身阶梯，其它人该什么办？


What about those who do not make it to university?	没上过大学的人该怎么生活？


How do the other 50% fare in a meritocratic world?	另外50%的人在精英社会中又该怎么生活？


They are, Young argued, confined, even condemned to lower-level jobs, with no chance to rise to eminence, or even to a comfortable position of responsibility.	杨说，他们会被限制、甚至禁锢在底层的职位上，根本没有机会出人头地，甚至不能承担合理的责任。


According to Young, those who have at least some talent will form a “pioneer corps” of plumbers and builders and other skilled workers.	根据杨的推断，那些有某种才能的人会自发地组成“先锋团体”，成员有管道工、建筑工和其它技术工人。


Those who do not even make that grade will remain in a “home help corps” of unskilled laborers.	连这点特长都没有的人会被永远打入非技术性工种组成的“家庭帮工集团”。


Young’s bleak picture bears an eerie resemblance to today’s world.	杨所描绘的凄惨景象与今天的世界有着怪诞的相似。


The new underclass is the other side of the meritocratic elite.	新生的底层百姓是精英阶层的对立面。


Immigrants, in particular, do not enjoy the equality of opportunity that the word “merit” suggests.	特别是移民，不可能享有“成就”一词赋予的同等机会。


Indeed, nowadays meritocracy seems to be simply another version of the inequality that characterises all societies. It may in fact be a particularly cruel form of inequality, as those who do not succeed cannot argue that they were unlucky or kept down by those in power.	实际上，如今的精英政治似乎成了所有社会不平等现象的另外一个翻版，甚至可能还特别残酷，因为没有成功的人无法辨白说自己运气不好，或者受到当权者的压制。


Instead, they must conclude that they personally failed, and that no amount of effort can save them.	相反，他们必须承认自己的失败，任何努力也救不了他们。


To this must be added another feature that Young described: meritocracy means only that another ruling group closes the gates behind it once it has achieved its status.	这里必须要加上一条杨所描述的特色：精英统治意味着统治集团又一次在达到目的后关上了身后的大门。


Those who made it on “merit” now want to have everything else as well – not just power and money, but also the opportunity to determine who gets in and who stays out.	“成就”出身的人也想要一切的一切¾不仅是金钱和权力，还有决定谁进谁出的机会。


Sooner or later, Young argued, meritocratic elites cease to be open; they see to it that their children have a better chance than the offspring of the “pioneer corps” or “home help corps.”	知识精英们早晚会不再开放，杨接着说。 他们要确保自己的子女比“先锋”或“家庭帮工”团体的后裔拥有更多的机会。


Like all elites before them, they become firmly established – and use all available means to keep it that way.	就像以前所有的精英一样，他们的地位逐渐牢不可破，而且会用尽所有方法保持这种状况。


There is no need to follow Young’s argument all the way to the eventual revolution.	我们没有必要相信杨的一切说法，甚至对所谓的最终革命深信不疑。


There is a need, however, for a healthy skepticism towards the claims of a meritocracy based on academic achievement alone.	但我们却有必要对单纯基于学术成就的精英政治说法提出健康的质疑。


Such a society is not the answer to all our prayers for decency and fairness, or even for sensible and good decisions.	这样的社会无法赋予我们所祈求尊严和公平，甚至不能带给我们明智和正确的判断。


It is far better to remember that when it comes to leadership, many qualities other than a first-class degree come into play.	我们最好记住：领导能力中起作用的不只有一流学位，还有其它很多素质。


As far as institutions are concerned, we should not allow any one criterion to determine who gets to the top and who does not.	谈到制度，我们不该只用一项标准衡量人们能否出人头地。


Diversity is a better guarantee of openness than even merit, and openness is the real hallmark of a liberal order.	多样性能比成就更好地确保开放，而开放则是自由秩序的真正特色所在。


The Rise of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis	耐药型结核病的流行


BALTIMORE -- Tuberculosis, one of the most deadly infectious diseases, is back with a vengeance, especially in Africa.	巴尔的摩——肺结核，一种最为致命的传染疾病，出现了报复性的重新流行，特别是在非洲。


Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) is a difficult to treat strain of TB which, attacks where health systems are historically weak, especially in areas of high HIV prevalence.	严重耐药型结核病（XDR-TB）是结核病中非常难治的一种，它主要袭击有史以来医疗体系的薄弱环节，特别是艾滋病的高发地区。


Failure to contain local outbreaks, develop tools and strategies for identifying and treating XDR-TB, and invest in longer-term improvements in TB control could transform our pharmacological magic bullets for TB into blanks.	如果不能有效控制结核病的局部爆发、开发出确诊和治疗严重耐药型结核病的武器策略和对长期改善结核病控制进行投资，我们治疗结核病的神奇药物武器最终就会化为乌有。


The development of TB chemotherapy from the 1940’s through the 1970’s transformed the once deadly “white plague” into a curable disease.	20世纪40年代到70年代结核病化学疗法的发明将曾几何时的“白色瘟疫”转变成了可以根治的疾病。


But TB treatment has been shadowed by the specter of drug resistance since the dawn of the antibiotic era.  Fifteen years ago, an epidemic of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in New York City induced near panic, before a massive infusion of funds into the public health infrastructure turned the tide in the United States, and public interest waned.	但是从抗生素时代刚刚开始，耐药病菌的幽灵就一直困扰着结核病的治疗。 15年前，耐多种药物型结核病（MDR-TB）在纽约的流行导致了人们近乎恐慌的反应，直到对公共医疗基础设施的巨额资金注入在美国扭转了结核病蔓延的趋势之后，公众对此事的关注才逐渐消失。


However, the problem of drug resistance has persisted, and efforts to contain it globally have not been sufficient.	但是，耐药问题却一直没有得到解决，而在全球范围内控制耐药型结核病的努力也没有取得应有的效果。


Enter XDR-TB.	输入严重耐药型结核病。


The World Health Organization estimates that there were 425,000 new MDR-TB cases in 2004, with China, India, and Russia accounting for just over 60%.	世界卫生组织估计2004年新增耐多种药物型结核病425，000例，其中中国、印度和俄国占比超过60%。


But it was an outbreak of XDR-TB in HIV-infected people in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, that turned the global spotlight on issues of extensively drug-resistant organisms.	然而真正引起全球对严重耐药生物体高度关注的还是严重耐药型结核病在南非夸祖鲁纳塔尔省艾滋病感染人群中的爆发流行。


In a study at the Church of Scotland Hospital in rural KwaZulu-Natal province of 535 patients who had confirmed tuberculosis, 221 had MDR-TB, a level 10 times greater than in the province as a whole.	夸祖鲁纳塔尔省农村苏格兰教会医院的一项研究表明，在535例已被确诊为结核病的患者当中，221例患的是耐多种药物型结核病，比全省水平高出10倍还多。


More alarmingly, 53 of the 221 had a strain that was also resistant to the two most clinically useful classes of second-line TB drugs.	更要引起人们警觉的是，这221例患者中有53例对临床最为有效的二线结核病药物也产生了抗药性。


Fifty-two of the 53 died in a median of just 16 days from the time of sputum collection.	从采集唾液那天算起，这53例患者中的52例存活天数的中值只有短短16天。


Molecular typing of the isolates indicated that 85% were clonally related, implying epidemic transmission of XDR strains, most likely in HIV clinics and hospital wards.	被隔离患者的分子类型表明85%的病毒经过DNA复制，这表明严重耐药型结核病最有可能在艾滋病诊所和病房内爆发了传染性流行。


How did this localized outbreak of XDR-TB emerge?	这种严重耐药型结核病是如何在局部爆发的？


Are similar localized outbreaks going unrecognized elsewhere?	其他地方是否也出现过类似的局部爆发但却不为人所知？


More importantly, can XDR-TB be controlled?	更重要的是，严重耐药型结核病是否能够控制？


Resistance to anti-TB drugs arises from selection of naturally occurring mutants with innate resistance to drugs.	对治疗结核药物的耐药性源自于自然产生的天生具有耐药性的病毒品种突变。


Poor adherence to the therapeutic regimen, improper prescribing by clinicians, and drug interactions or malabsorption can result in partial suppression of bacterial growth and the emergence of resistant organisms.	不严格遵守治疗方法、临床医生不正确用药和药物相互作用或吸收障碍都可能导致细菌生长被部分抑制，产生具有耐药性的有机生物。


Once this resistance develops, treatment is compromised, further resistance can evolve, and resistant organisms can be transmitted to other people, leading to primary drug resistance that may fail to respond to standard therapy.	而一旦出现耐药性，治疗效果就会大打折扣，进一步的耐药性就会产生，而且具有耐药性的有机体可以传染给其他民众，从而导致对正规治疗没有反应的严重耐药性的产生。


Effective treatment and cure of MDR-TB requires prolonged use (typically two years) of a combination of drugs, including second-line drugs that for the most part are less potent than first-line agents, more toxic, or both.	有效治疗耐多种药物型结核病需要长期（通常为2年）服用一系列药物，其中包括与一线药物相比效果较差、或者毒性更大又或者两者兼而有之的二线抗结核药物。


For the past six years, a global effort (called DOTS-Plus) to treat people with MDR-TB under strict conditions has been underway, reaching thousands with previously untreatable TB.	过去6年来，在严格控制的条件下治疗耐多种药物型结核病患者的全球计划（名为DOTS-Plus）已经获得实施，使得成千上万名以前无法治疗的结核病患者得到了救治。


An unfortunate consequence of treating MDR-TB with second-line drugs, however, is the inevitable emergence of further drug resistance.	但是，采用二线药物治疗耐多种药物型结核病的一个不幸结果就是��一步的耐药性将不可避免的产生。


If the same factors that produce MDR-TB remain in play, then MDR-TB becomes XDR-TB.	如果导致耐多种药物型结核病的同样因素继续发挥作用，那么耐多种药物型结核病将最终转化成为严重耐药型结核病。


There is no magic bullet for controlling XDR-TB.	控制严重耐药型结核病根本没有特效药。


Addressing drug-resistant TB cannot be divorced from overall TB control efforts.	治疗耐药型结核病无法与结核病的总体控制截然分开。


Moreover, TB control strategies targeted at populations with high HIV burdens are critically important.	不仅如此，针对艾滋病高负担人群的结核病控制策略至关重要。


Such strategies include widespread implementation of TB preventive therapy with isoniazid  – which is vastly underused, despite its low cost and known efficacy – and improved detection in HIV-infected people, many of whom die of TB without a diagnosis.  Attention must also be paid to infection control in hospitals and clinics: many of the XDR-TB cases in South Africa were acquired in HIV clinics or wards.  Access to HIV care, including ART, is also urgently needed, and reducing HIV incidence would substantially reduce the TB burden over the longer term.	上述策略包括采用雷米封广泛开展结核病的预防性医治——这种药物尽管价格低廉、疗效显著，但却并没有得到普及推广——以及改善对艾滋病人的结核病诊断，很多艾滋病人都是在未经诊断的情况下死于肺结核。 医院和诊所之中的传染病控制也必须得到重视：南非的许多严重耐药型结核病都是在艾滋病诊所或者病房中受到传染的。


Moreover, the capacity for prompt, accurate laboratory-based diagnosis of TB and drug resistance must be strengthened.	艾滋病治疗、包括ART的普及，也是急需重视的因素，因为缩小艾滋病的影响范围可以在很大程度上减轻治疗结核病的长期负担。


This will require infrastructure development, as well as reliable systems for procuring supplies, maintaining equipment, and training and retaining personnel.	不仅如此，及时准确地通过化验确诊结核病及其耐药状况的工作也必须得到加强。 这需要发展基础设施，建立供需品采购、设备维护和人员培训及使用的可靠系统。


Enhanced surveillance also is needed.	此外还需要更为严密的监控。


The Global Project on Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Surveillance has collected information on prevalence, patterns, and trends of drug resistance since 1994, focusing on resistance to first-line drugs and contributing much to our understanding of MDR-TB.  But surveillance for XDR-TB has been more limited, as drug susceptibility testing for second-line drugs is not well-standardized and for some drugs is poorly reproducible, while few countries perform such testing within the context of their national TB programs.	有关抗结核病药物耐药性的全球计划已经搜集了1994年以后有关流行状况、类型和耐药性发展趋势的大量信息，重点关注一线药物的耐药性状况，为我们对耐多种药物型结核病的了解做出了很大贡献。 但是对严重耐药型结核病的监控却非常有限，对二线药物的药物敏感性测试也没有制定完善的标准，对某些药物的敏感性测试很难再现，而且没有几个国家在国家级结核病计划中进行这样的敏感性测试。


Priorities for XDR-TB surveillance include facilitating access to reliable susceptibility testing to second-line drugs and incorporating this, together with information about HIV testing, into existing TB surveillance activities.	监控严重耐药型结核病的重点包括鼓励进行对二线药物的可靠的敏感性测试，并将相关信息与艾滋病测试信息一起，纳入现有的结核病监控计划之中。


Last, but not least, the importance of effective advocacy for a more vigorous response to the global TB epidemic cannot be overstated.	还有最后一点同样重要，那就是应对全球传染性结核病的宣传力度怎么强调都不过分。


This includes promoting new drugs lines that can enhance the potency of first-line regimens, thereby shortening treatment duration and preventing the emergence of resistance in the first place.  But new drugs are not enough.	这包括推广能提高一线疗法效力的全新药物系列，以此来缩短治疗时间，从根本上防止耐药性的出现。 但光有新药是不够的。


On the contrary, introducing them into settings where treatment compliance is not assured and where drug susceptibility testing is not available would likely contribute to even more resistant organisms.	恰恰相反，在规范化治疗无法保证和敏感性测试数据缺乏的背景下引入新药可能会导致出现更多的抗药组织。


Ultimately health systems must be strengthened to enable health care providers to find TB that is present in communities with more sensitive and specific diagnostic tests, treat TB according to the class of the organism with the latest and most potent drugs, and prevent TB among those who are at risk.  These steps may very well ensure that XDR-TB does not engulf the advances made in the past century in the global fight against TB.	最终必须加强相应的医疗体系建设，以确保医疗服务提供者能够以更为敏感和明确的诊断测试发现社区中潜藏的结核患者，利用最新最有效的药物按照有机体分类对结核病展开治疗，以及在高危人群中做好结核病的预防工作。 上述步骤能够有效确保严重耐药型结核病不会将过去一个世纪人类在与结核病的全球斗争中所取得的成果吞噬殆尽。


The Rise of Mid-Level Powers	中等强国的崛起


The security environment since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States has clearly demonstrated the limits of the United Nations, or even the US as the world’s sole military superpower, to maintain international security.	2001年9月11日恐怖份子对美国发动攻击以来的安全环境已经清楚地表明联合国、甚至作为世界唯一超级军事大国的美国在维持国际安全方面上的局限性。


However, like-minded mid-level powers with similar intentions could complement what the UN or the US lacks, effectively generating sufficient clout to stabilize the global security environment.	但是，具有相似意图的志同道合的中等强国却可以补充联合国或者美国的不足，有效地产生足够的影响力来稳定全球安全环境。


Japan, Australia, Germany, or Canada might be just such powers.	日本、澳大利亚、德国或者加拿大可能就是这样的国家。


They share common values as free and democratic countries.	他们作为自由民主国家具有共同的价值观。


Moreover, they are non-nuclear powers with no permanent seats in the UN Security Council.	而且，它们是非核国家，不是联合国安理会的常任理事国。


All are long time allies of the US.	它们都是美国的长期盟国。


In fact, over recent years these countries have already had many opportunities to demonstrate their ability and willingness to contribute to international security if called for, for they all also share a recognition that global stability directly serves their own national interests.	实际上，最近几年来，如果得到要求，这些国家已经有许多机会来展示它们为国际安全做出贡献的能力和意愿，因为它们也共同认为全球安全直接有利于它们自身的国家利益。


Nevertheless, subtle differences among these countries may influence their bilateral cooperation or coordination with the UN or the US.	但是，这些国家间微妙的差别可能影响它们与联合国或美国的双边合作或协调。


As a result, they must compliment each other’s advantages, characteristics, and interests in order to optimize their role in promoting international security.	因此，它们必须相互补充各自的优势、特征以及利益来优化它们在促进国际安全上的作用。


For many years, Japan has been taking very cautious steps into this area, but substantial changes have occurred recently.	多年来，日本在这一领域一直小心谨慎，但是最近发生了实质性的变化。


In March 2007, Japan agreed to enter a “semi-alliance” with Australia, and issued a “Joint Communiqué on Japan-Australia Security Cooperation.”	2007年3月，日本同意与澳大利亚结成“半盟国”并且发表了“关于日本澳大利亚安全合作的联合公报”。


In early June, the two countries’ defense and foreign ministers held the first regular security meeting (the so-called “2+2 meeting”) in Tokyo, agreeing to promote defense cooperation in various fields, including international security.	六月上旬，两国的国防部长和外交部长在东京举行了首次定期安全会谈(即所谓的“2+2会谈”)，同意在不同领域促进防务合作，包括国际安全。


Under Japan’s last two prime ministers, Japan has steadily been making practical contributions to the stabilization of the international security environment as a way to benefit its national and international interests.	在前两任日本首相的领导下，日本正在稳步地为国际安全环境的稳定做出确实的贡献，以有利于其自身的国家和国际利益。


Japan is thus helping to create conditions to allow mid-level powers to act jointly and effectively to provide an essential international “public good.”	日本因此正在帮助创造条件，让中等强国采取有效联合行动来提供基本的国际“公共利益”。


Such practical proposals address key global issues, including international terrorism, strengthening of mechanisms for arms control, arms reduction, and non-proliferation, efforts to contain attempts by North Korea and Iran to develop nuclear weapons, encouraging transparency in China’s military, restraining Russia’s imperial ambitions, and building a global ballistic missile defense network against missiles that could be launched by rogue regimes.	这样的实际建议解决关键的全球性问题，包括国际恐怖主义、加强军备控制的机制、裁军以及不扩散、遏制北韩和伊朗发展核武器的企图、鼓励中国军事透明、限制俄国的帝国野心并且建立全球弹道导弹防御网络来应付流氓政权可能发射的导弹。


However, efforts to promote this kind of cooperation should not be confined to these mid-level powers.	但是，促进这样的合作不应当局限于这些中等强国。


There are many other potential mid-level democratic countries that should take part.	还有许多其他潜在的中等民主国家可以参加。


Various approaches may be available for building a coalition of such powers, including the use of the UN and seeking to influence US foreign policy.	有不同的方式来建立此类国家的联盟，包括利用联合国并试图影响美国的外交政策。


To advance such efforts, it may be necessary for mid-level powers such as Japan, Canada, Australia, and Germany to strengthen ties with other like-minded mid-level countries that possess nuclear weapons and hold permanent seats on the UN Security Council, such as the United Kingdom and France, or with smaller nuclear powers without permanent Security Council seats, such as India.	为了推进这些努力，日本、加拿大、澳大利亚以及德国这样的中等强国可能有必要加强与其他志同道合、拥有核武器并且是联合国安理会常任理事国的中等强国例如英法两国，或者较小的非常任理事国例如印度的联系。


Once such a coalition gains a sure footing, the next step would be to participate actively in the negotiation of major security issues, such as international arms control, arms reduction, and non-proliferation, while encouraging the involvement of China and Russia.	一旦这样的联盟得以站稳脚跟，下一步就是积极地参与主要安全问题的谈判，例如国际军备控制、裁军以及不扩散，同时鼓励中国和俄国的参与。


The goal should be to build and exercise influence within the international community to the point that the coalition becomes tantamount to a permanent “sixth” member of the Security Council.	目标应当是在国际社会中建立并实施影响力，最终让这一联盟等同于安理会“第六个”常任理事国。


China’s E-Tail Revolution	中国的电子零售革命


SHANGHAI – When you think about centers of technological innovation, Silicon Valley, Seattle, and Seoul are probably the first places that come to mind.	上海—当想到技术创新中心时，首先出现在你脑海里的大概是硅谷、西雅图和首尔。


After all, they are the homes of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Intel, Microsoft, and Samsung – companies whose innovations transform the way other sectors, from financial services to telecoms and media, do business.	毕竟这些地方是亚马逊、苹果、Facebook、谷歌、英特尔、微软和三星的总部所在地，这些公司的创新改变了从金融服务到同新传媒各个行业的业务模式。


Now, however, the rise of “e-tail” (consumer-facing e-commerce) in China is enabling Hangzhou – the base of Alibaba, China’s largest online retailer – to join their ranks.	但是，如今中国的“电子零售”（e-tail，面向消费者的电子商务）的崛起正在让中国最大在线零售商阿里巴巴总部所在地——杭州跻身技术创新中心行列。


Indeed, on April 29, Alibaba signaled its ambitions by buying an 18% stake in Sina Weibo, China’s version of Twitter.	事实上，4月29日，阿里巴巴迈出了雄心勃勃的一步，收购了中国Twitter——新浪微博18%股权。


And, as with technology hubs elsewhere, innovations born in Hangzhou are determining the development path of related industries.	在其他技术领域，诞生自杭州的创新也在决定着相关行业的发展道路。


China’s e-tail market is the world’s second largest (after that of the United States), with an estimated $210 billion in revenue last year.	中国的电子零售市场规模位居世界第二（仅次于美国），去年收入估计可达2100亿美元。


Since 2003, the market has posted a compound annual growth rate of over 110%.	自2003年以来，电子零售市场年复合增长率超过110%。


By 2020, China’s e-tail market could be as large as today’s markets in the US, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France combined.	到2020年，中国电子零售市场将相当于今天美日英德法五国总和。


Despite a broadband penetration rate of only 30%, e-tail commanded 5-6% of total retail sales in China in 2012, on par with the US.	尽管宽带渗透率只有30%，但在2012年，电子零售占据了中国零售总额的5—6%，与美国等量齐观。


And the sector is already profitable: Chinese e-tailers are logging margins of 8-10% of earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization, which is slightly larger than the average margin for physical retailers.	���一行业已经实现盈利：中国电子零售商的息税摊销前利润率为8—10%，略高于实体零售商平均水平。


Two features of Chinese e-commerce stand out.	中国电子商务有两大显著特征。


First, roughly 90% of Chinese e-tail is conducted on ad-funded virtual marketplaces.	首先，中国电子零售的大约90%完成于依靠广告融资的虚拟市场。


On these platforms – which resemble eBay and Amazon Marketplace – manufacturers, retailers, and individuals offer products and services to consumers through online storefronts.	在这些模仿eBay和亚马逊市场的平台上，制造商、零售商和个人通过在线店铺向消费者提供商品和服务。


By contrast, in the US, Europe, and Japan, roughly 70% of the market is composed of e-tailers running their own Web sites, whether online-only merchants like Amazon or traditional brick-and-mortar retailers such as Carrefour, Dixons, and Walmart.	与此相对的是，在美国、欧洲和日本，大约70%的市场来自拥有自身网站的电子零售商（既包括只从事在线业务的亚马逊，也包括家乐福、Dixons和沃尔玛等传统零售商）。


Moreover, according to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute, online purchases in China do not simply replace offline purchases.	此外，根据麦肯锡全球研究所的研究，在中国，在线购物不只是简单取代线下购物。


Rather, e-tail supports incremental consumption: $1 of online consumption seems to generate roughly $0.40 of additional sales.	电子零售支持增值消费：1美元的在线消费额大约能造成0. 4美元的附加销售。


And incremental spending as a share of total spending is even higher in China’s less-developed cities, where a shortage of brick-and-mortar retailers means that online shopping provides access to otherwise unavailable products and brands.	增值支出占总支出的比重在中国欠发达城市反而更高，在这些地方，实体零售商的不足意味着在线购物才能提供某些产品和品牌。


Mass consumption in China and other emerging economies is coming of age in the Internet era.	中国和其他新兴经济体的大众消费正在迎来互联网时代。


Given that industry structures are still developing in many of these countries, e-tail is set to shape not only the retail landscape, but also the manufacturing and financial-services industries – and even the urban landscape itself.	许多国家的工业结构仍在发展之中，因此电子零售不但能决定零售业图景，也能决定制造业和金融服务业的格局——甚至是城市面貌本身。


In most countries, the retail sector has typically developed in three stages: first, local or regional players dominate, before a smaller number of national companies takes over, with e-tailers ultimately challenging traditional businesses.	在大部分国家，零售业的发展通常分三步走：首先是本地和地区零售商主导，随后崛起一小撮全国性公司，最后电子零售上挑战全国零售商。


But China lacks national leaders, with the top five Chinese retailers in different product categories commanding less than 20% of the market, compared to up to 60% in the US.	但中国缺少全国领先者，不同产品分类的前五大零售商占据的市场份额还不到20%，而美国可能高达60%。


And establishing a strong physical presence throughout the country will be time-consuming and expensive.	建立遍布全国的实体网点也费时费资。


By contrast, Alibaba (which owns marketplaces such as Taobao) and 360buy.com (which focuses on electronics) rank among China’s top ten retailers, and already provide national coverage through the reach of express delivery companies.	相反，阿里巴巴（拥有淘宝网等市场）和京东（专注于电子产品）均赫然名列中国前十大零售商，并已经通过快递公司建立了全国覆盖网。


As a result, China’s retail sector seems more likely to follow a two-stage development path, with e-tailers emerging as the major national players.	结果，中国零售业可能将出现两步发展模式，电子零售商将崛起为全国性主宰。


The ability afforded by online marketplaces to new players to attain national – and international – prominence without massive upfront investment will profoundly affect how both retailers and manufacturers approach new consumer markets.	在线市场让新来者有可能在不需进行大规模前端投资的情况下获得全国——和国际——主导地位，这将深远地影响零售商和制造商对新消费市场的看法。


The Japanese retailer Uniqlo, for example, used such marketplaces to expand into China in 2009.	比如，日本零售商优衣库就利用此类市场在2009年实现了在中国的扩张。


Likewise, by removing some of the benefits of scale and specialization that characterize the consumer-goods industry elsewhere, e-tail enables new manufacturers to join the market, selling goods like apparel and cosmetics directly from workshops and factories to consumers.	类似地，作为其他消费商品行业特征的规模和专业化优势因电子零售而受到一定程度的削弱，新制造商得以进入市场，实现服装和化妆品等商品从工厂直达消费者。


Such businesses are also leveraging their broad access and widely recognized brands to expand their role in the financial-services sector.	这类企业也利用广阔的接触面和高认知度的品牌扩张其在金融服务行业的角色。


Finally, e-tail could shape China’s urban development and transform leisure activities.	最后，电子零售可能决定中国城市发展方向并改变休闲行为。


Urban centers worldwide revolve around shops, whether on main street or at the mall, with many consumers viewing shopping as a leisure activity.	世界城市中心的演化围绕商店进行，不管是街市还是购物城，大量消费者将购物视为休闲活动。


China’s evolution will likely entail smaller main streets and malls, with large distribution centers near city limits.	中国的发展方向可能是较小规模的街市和购物城，而在城市周边建造大规模物流中心。


Citizens will spend more free time engaging in other activities, such as dining out.	市民将有更多的自由时间用于晚宴等其他活动。


All of these changes could alter the use and pricing of real estate.	所有这些变化都可能改变房地产的用途和价格。


Other emerging markets are likely to follow a similar course.	其他新兴市场也可能走相同的道路。


Chinese e-tailers are already using their advantages in exporting products from the country’s factories to expand internationally.	中国电子零售商已开始利用自身优势出口中国工厂的产品以实现国际扩张。


And enterprises in other countries are adopting a similar online business model.	其他国家的企业也在采用类似的在线商务模式。


China may have largely missed the Industrial Revolution in the nineteenth century.	中国已经错过了十九世纪工业革命。


But its approach to e-tail is poised to be one of the forces shaping the emerging-market Internet revolution of the twenty-first century.	但其迈向电子零售之路可能将成为决定21世纪新兴市场互联网革命的力量。


The New Economy of Fealty	效忠的新经济


PRINCETON – Since the 2008 financial crisis, most industrial economies have avoided anything like the collapse that occurred during the Great Depression of the 1930’s.	普林斯顿——2008年金融危机后，大多数工业经济体成功避免了20世纪30年代大萧条后的崩溃。


But, despite large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus, they are not experiencing any dramatic economic rebound.	虽然实行了大规模财政货币刺激政策，但大幅度的经济反弹依然没有成为现实。


Moreover, the pre-crisis trend of rising income and wealth inequality is continuing (in marked contrast to the post-Great Depression period, in which inequality declined).	此外，危机爆发前的收入财富不平等现象依然存在（这与后大萧条时期不平等现象有所缓解形成了鲜明的对比）。


And survey data show a rapid decline in people’s satisfaction and confidence about the future.	调查数据显示民众满意度和对未来的信心急剧下降。


The explanation of the post-crisis malaise – and people’s perception of it – lies in the combination of economic uncertainty and the emergence of radically new forms of social interaction.	经济不确定性和全新社会互动形式的出现能够解释危机后抑郁情绪和民众对它的认知。


Long-term structural shifts are fundamentally changing the nature of work, and thus of the way that we think of economic exchange.	长期结构性转变从根本上改变了工作性质，也改变了经济交换领域的思维方式。


In the early twentieth century, a large share of even advanced economies’ populations was still employed in agriculture.	二十世纪早期，农业依然是发达经济体大部分民众的就业方式。


That proportion subsequently fell sharply, and the same decline could later be seen in industrial employment.	之后这一比例急剧下降，同样的下降也可能发生在今后的工业就业领域。


Since the late twentieth century, most employment growth has come in services, particularly personal services – a pattern that looks like a reversal of a previous historical trend.	二十世纪后期以来，大部分就业增长转向了以个人服务为代表的服务业，这种模式似乎逆转了以往的历史趋势。


At the beginning of the twentieth century, upper-middle-class households had a substantial staff of cooks, maids, nannies, and cleaners.	20世纪初，上层中产阶级家庭曾雇请厨师、女佣、保姆和清洁工等大批帮佣。


In the interwar years, these employees largely disappeared from the lives of all but the ultra-rich.	战争期间，除富豪阶层外，帮佣基本上从所有人的生活中消失。


The iconoclastic British historian A. J. P. Taylor quipped that laments about the decline of Britain were really generalized reflections of Oxford academics’ view of the “servant problem.”	特立独行的英国历史学家泰勒打趣道哀叹英国衰落实际是牛津大学学者对“佣人问题”的普遍反应。


By the end of the twentieth century, however, many of these old service occupations were reappearing on a large scale, as dual-career households needed additional “help.”	但到二十世纪末，不少原有服务业大规模重新出现，为双职工家庭提供更多“帮助”。


The employment of nannies, au pairs, babysitters, and day mothers reflected carefully differentiated approaches to the problem of looking after children.	雇佣保姆、换工、临时看护和日间母亲等诸多选择反映出在儿童看护问题上的各种应对方式。


After child care, there followed hordes of private tutors, test coaches, and university admissions consultants.	儿童看护之外还有成群的私人教师、考试指导和大学招生顾问。


And, beyond childhood and adolescence, the need for specialized personal support only grew.	除童年和青春期外，对专业化个人服务的需求一直与日俱增。


Some of the new services would stretch the imagination of previous ages.	某些新兴服务可能完全超乎老一辈人的想象。


Dating agencies have developed increasingly complex algorithms to sort out their clients’ romantic lives.	约会机构开发出越来越复杂的算法厘清客户的浪漫生活。


Lawyers work out prenuptial contracts, and then the complexities of divorce negotiations.	律师起草婚前合约，并承担越来越复杂的离婚谈判任务。


Design consultants choose our interiors and clothing.	设计顾问为我们选择服装和室内装饰。


Personal trainers look after our fitness.	私人教练照顾我们的健康。


Cosmeticians, skin-care specialists, and tattoo artists shape our appearance.	美容师、肌肤护理师和纹身艺术师塑造我们的外在形象。


Two of the largest areas of service-employment expansion have been education and health services.	服务就业拓展的两大领域是教育和医疗。


And yet this has not been a result of adding more teachers or doctors.	而这并不是教师或医生增加所导致的。


Instead, a new division of labor has surrounded the classical providers of education and healing with more and more layers of administration.	相反，新劳动分工在传统教育医疗服务商之外增加了多层次的管理服务。


Doctors need experts to deal with insurance forms, negotiate with other doctors and pharmaceutical providers, and manage legal risks.	医生需要专业人士处理保险表格，与其他医生和药品供应商谈判并管理法律风险。


Educational specialists fill every conceivable logistical and administrative gap, run sports and arts programs, guarantee diversity, and oversee technology transfer to the private sector.	教育专家填补一切后勤和管理缺口、开办体育艺术课程、保障多样性，并对私有部门技术转让进行监督。


Indeed, a rapidly growing army of administrators is overrunning our universities.	事实上，快速膨胀的管理队伍正在占领我们的大学。


None of these new services can easily be standardized, or dealt with at long distances (as can some types of clerical legal and financial work).	上述新兴服务都难以标准化，（像某些种类的文书法律和财务工作那样）远程提供服务也不现实。


The caregivers and consultants need to be on location. And that raises a question of control.	看护和顾问都必须亲自到场，而控制也因此成为问题。


How can child-care providers be trusted?	该如何信任儿童看护服务提供商？


Cautious parents seek agents to select their employees and technology to monitor them as they work.	小心谨慎的父母找到专业甄别员工和技术的代理来负责监管他们的工作。


So, to find out about the reputation of service providers, we need still more service providers: ratings and surveys and agents to tell us about agents.	于是乎，我们需要更多服务提供商来了解服务提供商的声誉：打分、问卷、对代理商服务进行评判的代理商。


The new service economy extends market relations to areas of life in which, previously, informal assistance and guidance within family units prevailed.	新兴服务经济使市场关系延伸到此前主要靠家庭内部提供非正式协助及引导的生活领域。


To the extent that employment and income in the new services can be easily recorded, this change implies an increase in measurable economic wealth and output, because unpaid household services are ignored in GDP calculations.	如果新型服务的雇佣关系和收入可以成功记录，这一改变就意味着可度量经济财富及产出的增加，因为GDP计算往往忽略不付费的家庭服务。


Experts might thus interpret the macroeconomic consequences as largely positive.	专家们因此可能对上述变化的宏观经济结果做出积极的解读。


But the element of personal dependence is a throwback to the preindustrial world.	但个人依赖是指向前工业化时代的倒退元素。


The zenith of the old service economy was the court of Louis XIV, where specialist courtiers attended to the Sun King’s every need, even the most intimate (there was a Groom of the King’s Close Stool).	原有服务经济在路易十四宫廷时期达到顶峰，当时有专门的臣子满足太阳王包括最隐私需要在内的所有需求（有���门的仆人服侍国王如厕）。


In that pre-modern world, private life was extraordinarily public, whereas the social movements of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries dramatically expanded the realm of individual privacy and self-definition.	在当时的前现代世界，私人生活令人难以置信地公开化，而十九二十世纪的社会运动极大地拓展了个人隐私和自我定义的领域。


Today’s new service economy is driven by the resulting uncertainty over identity.	今天的服务经济受到身份不确定性的驱动。


We need advice on every aspect of life, provided in a complex world by people whom we think to be experts in ever-narrower and more specialized fields.	我们所需要的建议涉及生活的方方面面，由我们所认可的复杂世界越来越细分的专业人士提供。


We can easily monitor that advice and subject it to statistical testing: are our children doing better on tests?	我们可以轻松管理建议，并利用统计数字来考察效果：孩子的考试成绩有没有提高？


Are we more fit?	我们的健康状况有没有改善？


Are we dating more people who share our perceived interests?	我们的约会对象是不是有更相同的兴趣爱好？


Paradoxically, the new technological possibilities are also eliminating privacy.	矛盾的是，全新技术可能性也许正在消灭隐私。


We are moving back to the Sun King’s world, in which everything personal is known, rumored, or whispered.	我们正回到太阳王的世界，人人都掌握、传播或悄悄谈论个人隐私。


But now, with electronic surveillance, personal dependence has never been more extreme, more humiliating, and more depressing.	但有了现代电子监控技术，人身依赖比以往任何时候更加极端、更加耻辱也更令人沮丧。


This might explain some of the public dissatisfaction captured in so many surveys, even when economic conditions are not dire.	这或许能够解释在经济条件并不那么可怕的情况下，有那么多民意调查表现出公众不满情绪。


Subjectively, modern growth feels problematic, and perhaps even immoral.	主观感觉上现代经济增长可能问题多多，甚至不合乎道德要求。


The Rise of the Beijing Consensus	北京共识的兴起


BRUSSELS – President Barack Obama’s first appearances outside North America – in London, Strasbourg, Prague, and Istanbul – galvanized world attention.	布鲁塞尔——奥巴马·巴拉克总统在北美以外的第一次露面，即他的伦敦，斯特拉斯堡，布拉格和伊斯坦布尔之行， 引起了全球的关注。


But what that trip singularly failed to do was paper over a startling fact: the “Washington Consensus” about how the global economy should be run is now a thing of the past.	但是这次旅程唯一的缺陷是掩盖了一个触目惊心的事实：有关全球经济应该如何运营的“华盛顿共识”已经成为过去。


The question now is what is likely to replace it.	现在的问题是什么可能取代它。


Although China is often said to lack “soft power,” many of its ideas on economics and governance are coming into ascendance.	虽然中国经常被指为缺乏“软实力”，这个国家在经济和管理方面的许多观念却在渐渐兴起。


Indeed, in pursuit of national economic stability, the Obama administration is clearly moving towards the kind of government intervention that China has been promoting over the past two decades.	实际上，为了追求国家的经济稳定，奥巴马的领导班子显然正往施行某种政府干预的方向努力，而在过去二十年里，中国一直推行着这种政府干预。


In this model, the government, while continuing to benefit from the international market, retains power over the economy’s “commanding heights” through strict control over the financial sector, restrictive government procurement policies, guidance for research and development in the energy sector, and selective curbs on imports of goods and services.	在这种模式下，政府继续从国际市场受益，同时对金融领域严加控制，施行限制性的政府采购政策，指导能源领域的研究和发展，有选择地抑制商品和服务的进口， 以此来保持权力对于经济“制高点”的影响。


All these factors are not only part of China’s economic rescue package, but of Obama’s stimulus plan as well.	以上所有因素不只是中国经济一揽子救助计划的组成部分，也可以在奥巴马的刺激计划里找到。


China is clearly pleased to see that the United States is now also placing cool calculation of its national interests at the forefront of its foreign policy.	显然，中国乐于看见美国现在也将冷静计算本国利益当成是外交政策里的首要环节。


“In delivering a better life for people on the ground, one should be more concerned with substance than with form,” Obama stated in an interview just before his inauguration.	“为了给这片土地上的人民提供更好的生活， 应该更加关注实质而不是形式。 ”在即将举行就职典礼之前，奥巴马接受采访时如是说。


Rather than obsessing about elections, the US now seeks to build pragmatic alliances to buttress its economic needs.	美国现在不是总想着选举，而是开始寻求建立实用的联盟来支持自身的经济需求。


This requires, first of all, cozying up with China and the autocratic Gulf states – the main lenders to the US Treasury – as well working with Iran and Russia to limit the costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.	这首先就要求与中国和专制的海湾国家搞好关系——他们是美国财政部的主要借贷方； 还需要和伊朗和俄罗斯合作，以便限制在阿富汗和伊拉克的战争成本。


As the US backtracks on its liberal standards, it is flirting with what can be called the “Beijing Consensus,” which makes economic development a country’s paramount goal and prescribes that states should actively steer growth in a way that suits national stability.	由于美国推翻自由标准，彻底调转了方向，它现在开始和所谓的“北京共识”眉来眼去了。 这种观念将经济发展视为一个国家的最高目标，规定各国应该使用适合本国局势稳定的方法来积极引导经济增长。


What matters in this worldview is not the nature of any country’s political system, but the extent to which it improves its people’s wellbeing.	在这种世界观里，重要的不是国家政治体制的性质，而是一个国家能在多大程度上提高人民的生活水平。


At the diplomatic level, this implies that national interests, not universal norms, should drive cooperation.	在外交层面上，北京共识意味着应该由国家利益，而非普世规范，来引导协作。


This diplomatic and economic realism is more than a reversal of the neo-conservative muscle-flexing of the George W. Bush years. It is an attempt by a declining power to use its restrained capabilities in a more economical way.	这种外交和经济上的现实主义不仅扭转了乔治·W·布什年代所实行的变通的新保守主义策略，还体现出一个衰落的强国企图采用一种更经济的方式来发挥有限的能力。


For example, in times of crisis it is no shame for a government to be mercantilist, but by behaving in this way, the US has lost the moral high ground as a champion of free trade.	例如，在危机年代，政府采用重商政策无可指责，然而如果这样行事，美国就已经失去了作为自由贸易支持者的道德制高点。


America’s new pragmatism is also the consequence of a process of “reverse socialization.”	“反向社会（主义）化”的进程也导致了美国新的实用主义。


Over the past two decades, the US and its European allies believed that they could inculcate the rest of the world with their economic and political principles.	在过去20年中，美国和它的欧洲盟友相信他们能够把自身的经济和政治原则灌输给世界上的其他国家。


Countries like China became enmeshed in a web of multilateral organizations and subjugated to conditional engagement strategies.	中国这样的国家陷入了多边机构编织的大网，屈服于有条件的参与战略。


Nowadays, the West does not have the leverage to enforce these conditions. Moreover, the majority of developing countries now actively embrace multilateral bodies as part of their development strategies.	现在，西方世界不再具备执行这些条件的力量，而且大部分发展中国家现在则将积极参与多边组织视为一种自身发展战略。


As we move from a unipolar international order to one with multiple regional powers, realism should allow them to vie for influence while keeping the costs as low as possible.	当我们从一国独大的国际秩序过渡到若干地区强国并存的状态时，现实主义能够允许这些国家在尽量降低成本的同时争夺影响力。


The result will be a new concert of powers, tied together by their fixation with national economic growth and the objective of discouraging others from causing instability that risks intervention.	结果就是产生新的强国之间的协调，他们拴在一起是因为关注国家经济增长，也是为了阻止他国引发不稳定：这种不稳定可能会引来干预。


Instead of entrusting America with the arduous task of safeguarding international stability on its own, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) will assume a more prominent role in policing their own backyards.	金砖四国（巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国）将在管理本国的势力范围内发挥更明显的作用，而不是将维护国际稳定的艰巨任务托给美国一家。


Russia can have its Caucasus, and if the generals in Myanmar should go mad, it would become China’s and India’s problem to sort out.	俄罗斯可以在高加索发挥影响，而一旦缅甸的将军们作出疯狂之举，中国和印度就得处理好这个问题。


America’s policy shift will inevitably erode the Western liberal axis.	美国转变政策将会不可避免地弱化西方的自由轴心。


America has the flexibility, capacity, and leadership to adapt to the new rules for pursuing diplomacy, but Europe simply does not.	为了推行外交政策，美国已经具备弹性，能力和领袖来适应新的规则。 然而欧洲却身无长技。


Its strategic relevance, even in the transatlantic partnership, is destined to weaken further.	甚至在跨大西洋的伙伴关系中，它的战略实用性都注定会继续弱化。


Realism will give the US more maneuverability in the short term, but it will have to sacrifice some of its soft power to achieve this.	现实主义将在短期内赋予美国更多的灵活性，但它不得不牺牲部分软实力来达到这个目标。


Whether America is able to strengthen its global influence in the future will depend not so much on its moral esteem, but on the extent to which it succeeds in revamping its economy and forging new alliances.	美国是否能够在未来加强它的全球影响力？ 这一点更多地不是取决于该国的道德尊严，而是它能在何种程度上成功地恢复经济和建立新的联盟。


The same will apply for other powers.	其他强国也是如此。


But this rising Beijing Consensus offers no guarantee of stability.	然而这种处于上升趋势的北京共识无法确保稳定。


A concert of powers is only as strong as its weakest pillar, and requires a great deal of self-discipline and restraint.	强国之间的协调是它最坚固也最脆弱的地方。 这种联合还需要广泛的自律和自制。


It remains to be seen how the American public will respond to its national U-turn.	美国公众如何看待国家的大逆转仍然是个未知数。


If one main player slides back into economic turmoil, nationalism will reduce the scope for pragmatic bargaining.	如果一个主要国家再次滑入经济动乱，民族主义将会削弱实用交涉的有效范围。


Overlapping spheres of influence and frozen conflicts could again cause major conflict.	影响力重叠和不解决争端可能会再次引发大型的冲突。


And, if China comes out of the crisis as the big winner and continues to boost its power, zero-sum thinking will soon replace win-win cooperation.	而且，如果中国作为大赢家从危机中脱颖而出，实力继续飙升，那么零和博弈将很快取代双赢合作。


The Rise of the BRICs	巴西、俄国、印度以及中国的崛起


PRINCETON -- The winners of the great globalization push of the 1990’s were small states such as New Zealand, Chile, Dubai, Finland, Ireland, the Baltic Republics, Slovenia, and Slovakia.	二十世纪九十年代大规模全球性浪潮中的赢家是一些小国家，例如新西兰、智利、迪拜、芬兰、波罗的海国家、斯洛文尼亚以及斯洛伐克。


The East Asian tigers that pushed themselves onto the world economy’s center stage were small units, and in some cases – Singapore, Taiwan, or Hong Kong – were not even treated as states.	将自身推到世界经济中心舞台的东亚猛虎也是些小国家，某些国家例如新加坡、台湾或者香港干脆都不被视为国家。


Even South Korea, which is a giant in comparison, was only half a country.	即使是相比之下是巨人的南韩也只是半个国家。


Such states are vulnerable, and the past is littered with small and successful globalizers that lost out because of power politics: the Italian city states of the Renaissance, the Dutch Republic, or, in the twentieth century, Lebanon and Kuwait.	这样的国家容易受到冲击，而历史上不乏成功的全球化小国由于权力政治而衰败。 文艺复兴时期的意大利城市国家，荷兰共和国或者二十世纪的黎巴嫩以及科威特都是如此。


Small states frequently became the victims of larger but poorer neighbors envious of their success and eager to seize their assets, while oblivious to the fact that such seizure actually destroys the source of wealth and dynamism.	贫穷大国邻国们嫉妒小国的成功，迫不及待地想要侵占它们的资产，而对这样的侵占实际上摧毁财富和动力的源泉这一事实视而不见。 因而小国经常变成它们的受害者。


In the world of pure globalization, small states do best, because they are more flexible and can adapt more easily to rapidly changing markets.	在纯粹的全球化世界中小国表现最佳，那是因为它们更为灵活，可以更为容易地适应变化的市场。


Small states are better at public policy adjustments, freeing up labor markets, establishing a solid framework for competition, and facilitating cross-border takeovers and mergers.	小国在公共政策调整上更为出色，释放劳动力市场的活力，建立坚实的竞争框架并且便利跨边境的收购和兼并。


The urgency of such a program has been underscored in much recent analysis of the poor performance of the major continental European economies – France, Germany, and Italy – compared with smaller and much more dynamic economies in northern and central Europe.	主要欧洲大陆经济体法国、德国以及意大利与北欧和中欧较小但是更为具有活力的经济体相比表现欠佳。 最近对此所做的分析中，这样的规划的迫切性突出出来。


But, at the same time, small states are also more likely to be successful in defending crucial aspects of the welfare state.	但是，与此同时，小国家也更有可能成功地维护福利国家的关键方面。


A larger state can inevitably do more to control the economy, and hence is exposed to the costly temptation to intervene in response to political pressure from vested interests.	大国不可避免地可以做更多的事情来控制经济，因此也就更为受到诱惑实行干预来应对来自既得利益集团的政治压力。


In a small-state setting, imposition of a dense network of controls is likely to lead to the loss of mobile factors of production, while in a large state it is harder for labor or capital to escape.	在小国环境中，强制实行稠密的控制措施有可能导致丧失移动的生产要素，而在大国中，劳动力和资本流失是困难的。


On the international stage, large states try to make international rules, and often build their domestic legitimacy on their claims to be able to shape a larger world: they think in terms of what French thinkers call “harnessing globalization.”	在国际舞台上，大国试图制订国际规则，而且经常在宣称它们有能力规划更大的世界的基础上建立其国内合法性。 也就是说，它们采用法国思想家们所说的“操控全球化”的思路来考虑问题。


Instead of accepting the international system roughly as it is, with all its imperfections, they think that they can use their weight to alter the rules – in their favor.	这些国家并不大体上接受有待改善的国际体制，而是认为它们可以利用它们的实力来改变规则为我所用。


Small states’ nervousness and fear began to increase roughly in 2000.	大约在2000年，小国的紧张和担心开始增加。


The new political realities were highlighted by the Iraq war, China’s search for energy sources in developing countries, and Russia’s assertiveness in foreign and domestic policy.	伊拉克战争、中国在发展中国家寻找能源以及俄国在外交和国内政策上凸显自身突出了这一新的政治现实。


In today’s world, it looks as if the new winners are big states with large populations and rapid growth: Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs), in addition to the United States.	在当今世界中，好像新的赢家是那些人口众多、增长迅速的大国，也就是巴西、俄国、印度和中国(即所谓的“BRICs”国家)，外加美国。


These dynamic giants terrify the wealthy populations of the industrialized world with the potential power of their low-cost competition, cheap products, and outsourcing of services.	这些富有活力的巨人们用潜在的低成本竞争、廉价产品以及外包服务来恐吓工业化国家中富有的人口。


The BRICs (we might rewrite the term as Big and Really Imperial Countries) project power more easily, but they also need to project power to compensate for their weaknesses.	这些BRICs国家(我们也可以把它们换成巨大帝国们称呼)更为容易地发挥实力，但是它们还要发挥实力来弥补其弱点。


They have their own problems, but at the same time they are likely to behave more like traditional big states, and will try to shape globalization rather than simply accepting it as an inevitable process.	它们有自身的问题，但是与此同时它们有可能更像是传统大国那样办事，而且试图规划全球化而非仅仅作为不可避免的过程而接受全球化。


There are at least three obvious flaws that afflict these big globalizers much more than the small globalizers who had done so well previously.	至少有三个明显的漏洞侵害这些全球化大国，其程度要超过那些过去表现优异的全球化小国。


First, highly populous countries must integrate their poor and ill-educated underclass (in China and India mostly rural) as they engage with world markets.	首先，人口众多的国家必须在与国际市场接触的时候融汇其贫穷而又教育薄弱的底层人口(在中国和印度主要是农村人口)。


Second, China and Russia have financial systems that lack transparency, while Brazil and India are financially underdeveloped, putting further integration in the world economy at risk and increasing prospects for a financial crisis.	第二，中国和俄国的金融体系缺乏透明，而巴西和印度则在金融领域尚有待开发，进一步融入世界经济就存在风险，而金融危机的可能会增加。


Third, Russia is already facing massive demographic decline and an aging and sickening population; China faces the near certainty of a Japanese-style demographic downturn from the 2040’s onward, a belated legacy of its one-child policy.	第三，俄国已经面临人口减少、老龄化而且疾病增加。 中国从2040年起几乎肯定会面临日本那样的人口减少，这是其一胎政策迟来的后果。


Flawed geo-political giants have in the past been a source of instability (Germany before World War I is an obvious analogy), and there are good reasons to see them presenting increased risk in the twenty-first century.	地缘政治存在缺陷的大国在过去是不稳定的缘由(一次世界大战前的德国就是明显的例子)，而且有理由看到它们在二十一世纪带来更大的风险。


But for the moment they are unquestionably powerful.	但是目前，这些国家毫无疑问具有强大的实力。


The result is that the BRICs will look for compensating power, and military and strategic influence and prestige, as a way to solve internal problems.	结果就是，巴西、俄国、印度和中国这些国家将会寻找补偿实力、军事和战略影响力以及威望来作为解决国内问题的方式。


Gone are the 1990’s, when for a brief moment in the immediate aftermath of the end of the Cold War, the world looked as if it would be permanently peaceful and unconcerned with power.	九十年代，冷战刚刚结束后的一个短暂时间，世界看似好像会永久和平，不会受到国力的困扰，这一时代已经一去不复返了。


That hope soon proved illusory.	那一希望马上被证明是虚幻的。


Many commentators, indeed, were stunned by the rapidity with which tensions returned to the international system.	确实，许多评论家都被紧张局势重返国际体系的速度所震惊。


While many blame US behavior, these tensions have in fact been fueled by the unfolding of a new logic in international politics.	尽管许多人批评美国的行为，但是这些紧张局势实际上是被国际政治中的新逻辑所鼓动的。


The Rising Power of NGO\u0027s	羽翼渐丰的非政府组织


When Human Rights Watch declared last January that the Iraq War did not qualify as a humanitarian intervention, the international media took notice.	当"人权观察"在去年1月宣布不适于对伊拉克战争进行人道主义干预，国际传媒对此非常关注。


According to the Internet database Factiva, 43 news articles mentioned the report, in publications ranging from the Kansas City Star to the Beirut Daily Star .	据因特网数据库Factiva显示，从《堪萨斯城星报》到《贝鲁特每日星报》，有43篇新闻报道提到了这份报告。


Similarly, after the abuses of Iraqi detainees at the Abu Ghraib prison were disclosed, the views of Amnesty International and the International Committee of the Red Cross put pressure on the Bush administration both at home and abroad.	无独有偶，伊拉克阿布格勒布监狱的虐囚丑闻曝光后，"大赦国际"和"国际红十字会"的观点都在海内外给布什政府施加了压力。


As these examples suggest, today's information age has been marked by the growing role of non-governmental organizations (NGO's) on the international stage.	这些事例表明，非政府组织（NGO）在世界舞台上的重要性日渐增加是当今资讯时代的重要标志。


This is not entirely new, but modern communications have led to a dramatic increase in scale, with the number of NGO's jumping from 6,000 to approximately 26,000 during the 1990's alone.	这虽然不是什么新闻，但现代通讯确实使NGO的规模急剧扩大，其数量仅在20世纪90年代就从6000个增加到26000个。


Nor do numbers tell the whole story, because they represent only formally constituted organizations.	而仅从数量还不能窥其全貌，因为它们代表的仅仅是正式建立的组织。


Many NGO's claim to act as a "global conscience," representing broad public interests beyond the purview of individual states.	许多NGO都声称是"全球良知"，一种超越单一国家范畴的广泛的公众利益。


They develop new norms by directly pressing governments and businesses to change policies, and indirectly by altering public perceptions of what governments and firms should do.	它们通过直接向政府或公司施压使其改变政策或间接地改变公众对政府和公司行为的看法而制定新的规范。


NGO's do not have coercive "hard" power, but they often enjoy considerable "soft" power - the ability to get the outcomes they want through attraction rather than compulsion.	NGO没有强迫性的"硬"权力，但却往往拥有相当的"软"权力-一种通过吸引而不是强迫来达到目的的能力。