The answer is surprisingly simple: fixed costs.	答案惊人地简单：固定成本。


Modern production is based on networks of networks.	现代生产基于网络的网络（networks of networks）。


A modern firm is a network of people with different expertise: production, logistics, marketing, sales, accounting, human-resource management, and so on.	现代企业是由不同专长的人组成的网络：生产、物流、市场、销售、会计、人力资源管理，等等。


But the firm itself must be connected to a web of other firms – its suppliers and customers – through multi-modal transportation and telecommunication networks.	但企业本身也必须通过各种形式的交通和通信网络连入其他企业——其供应商和客户——的网络。


To form part of the modern economy, firms and households need access to networks that deliver water and dispose of sewage and solid waste.	要成为现代经济的一���分，企业和家庭需要接入带来水源和处理污水和固体垃圾的网络。


They need access to the grids that distribute electricity, urban transportation, goods, education, health care, security, and finance.	他们需要接入带来电力、城市交通、商品、教育、医疗、安全和金融的网络。


Lack of access to any of these networks causes enormous declines in productivity.	缺少这些网络的任何一个都会造成生产率暴跌。


Just think of how your life would change if you had to walk two hours each day to obtain drinking water or wood for fuel.	想象一下，如果你每天必须走上两小时才能获得饮用水或作为燃料的木柴，你的生活会变成怎样。


But connecting to these networks involves fixed costs.	但接入这些网络需要付出固定成本。


Before anyone can consume a kilowatt-hour, a liter of water, or a bus ride, somebody has to get a copper wire, a pipe, and a road to their house.	在你消费一度电、一升水或搭乘一次公交车前，必须先铺好铜缆、管道和通向你家的道路。


These fixed costs need to be recouped through long periods of use.	这些固定成本需要通过漫长的使用期回收。


If income is expected to be low (perhaps because of other missing networks), it does not pay to connect a firm or a household to the network, because the fixed costs will not be recouped.	如果预计收入较低（也许是因为无法接入其他网络），将一家企业或一个家庭接入网络就没有什么意义，因为固定成本无法得到回收。


Growth is not inclusive because fixed costs deter markets from extending the networks that underpin it.	增长就不是包容性的，因为固定成本阻止了市场扩大作为其基础的网络。


Changes in these fixed costs have outsize effects on who is included.	这些固定成本的变化对包括其中的人影响甚大。


For example, the first telephone company started operations in 1878, while mobile phones are barely 25 years old.	比如，第一家电话公司于1878年开始运营，而移动电话出现不过25年。


One might expect that the former would have diffused more than the latter, just because of the time advantage.	你也许会认为前者的普及程度会高于后者，因为它拥有时间上的优势。


Yet, in Afghanistan, there are 1,300 mobile phones for every landline.	但是，在阿富汗，移动电话和固定电话之比为1,300:1。


In India, there are 72 cellphone lines per 100 persons, but only 2.6 landlines.	在印度，每100人就拥有72部手机，而固话只有2. 6台。


In fact, many Indians with mobile phones must defecate in the open because the median Indian does not have piped water in his house.	事实上，许多用移动电话的印度人还得使用旱厕，因为中位收入印度家中没有自来水。


In Kenya, where there are 50 mobile phones per 100 people, only 16% of the population has access to electricity.	在肯尼亚，每100人拥有50部移动电话，但只有16%的人能用上电。


This reflects the fact that cellphone towers and handsets are much cheaper than pipes and copper wires, making it possible for the poor to pay the fixed costs.	这反映出一个事实：手机信号塔和设备比管道和铜缆便宜得多，这使得穷人能够负担固定成本。


It is the fixed costs that limit the diffusion of the networks.	固定成本制约了网络的扩散。


So, a strategy for inclusive growth has to focus on ways of either lowering or paying for the fixed costs that connect people to networks.	因此，包容增长战略必须聚焦于降低将人们接入网络的成本或代他们支付这一成本。


Technology can help.	科技可助一臂之力。


Clearly, cellphones have done wonders.	显然，手机成就斐然。


Cheaper photovoltaic cells may enable remote villages to get electricity without the fixed costs of long transmission lines.	更廉价的光伏电池或能让偏远村庄用上电而不必负担长距离输电线的固定成本。


Mobile banking may lower the fixed costs faced by traditional banks.	移动银行或能降低传统银行所面临的固定成本。


But in other areas, the issue involves public policy.	但在其他领域，这一问题还与公共政策有关。


From its beginning in 1775, the US Postal Service was based on the principle “that every person in the United States – no matter who, no matter where – has the right to equal access to secure, efficient, and affordable mail service.”	从1775年建立开始，美国邮政局一直基于“所有美国人——不论是谁、不论身处何地——都有权利平等地获得安全、高效、平价的邮件服务”的原则。


A similar logic led to the expansion of the interstate highway system.	类似的逻辑还支持了州际高速公路体系的扩张。


Obviously, all of this costs money, and it is here that priorities matter.	显然，所有这些都需要花钱，确定优先等级的作用也在这里。


Poor countries lack the money to connect every person to every network at once, which explains the huge regional differences in income.	穷国没钱将所有人同时接入所有网络，这解释了为何地区间收入差距巨大。


But too many resources are often allocated to palliative redistributive measures that address the consequences of exclusion rather than its causes.	但太多资源往往用在了缓和排斥现象而不是根治其原因的措施上。


Countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Peru, Uganda, Guatemala, Pakistan, and Venezuela spend substantially more money on subsidies and transfers than on public investment to expand infrastructure networks, education, and health care.	巴西、南非、秘鲁、乌干达、危地马拉、巴基斯坦和越南等国家花在补贴和转移支付上的钱比花在扩大基础设施网络、教育和医疗等方面公共投资更多。


A strategy for inclusive growth must empower people by including them in the networks that make them productive. Inclusiveness should not be seen as a restriction on growth to make it morally palatable.	包容增长战略必须将人们纳入使他们具有生产力的网络，以此赋予他们力量。


Viewed properly, inclusiveness is actually a strategy that enhances growth.	用适当角度看，包容其实就是增强增长的战略。


Redistribution or Inclusion?	再分配还是包容？


RIYADH – The issue of rising income inequality loomed large at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos.	利雅得—不平等性日益加剧的问题成为今年达沃斯世界经济论坛的一个重要议题。


As is well known, the United States’ economy has grown significantly over the past three decades, but the median family’s income has not.	众所周知，美国经济在过去三十年中有显著增长，但中位家庭收入却没有增加。


The top 1% (indeed, the top .01%) have captured most of the gains, something that societies are unlikely to tolerate for long.	顶层1%（事实上，是顶层0. 1%）攫取了大部分收益，社会已经难以再长期忍受这一局面。


Many fear that this is a global phenomenon with similar causes everywhere, a key claim in Thomas Piketty’s celebrated book Capital in Twenty-First Century.	许多人担心这是一个全球现象，并且各地出现这一现象的原因都差不多，这是托马斯·皮凯蒂（Thomas Piketty）在其热门著作《二十一世纪资本论》（Capital in Twenty-First Century）中提出的关键观点。


But this proposition may be dangerously misleading.	但这一观点也许具有极大的误导性。


It is crucial to distinguish inequality in productivity among firms from unequal distribution of income within firms.	区分企业之间的生产率不平等和企业内部的收入分配不平等至关重要。


The traditional battle between labor and capital has been about the latter, with workers and owners fighting over their share of the pie.	传统的劳资之争是关于后者的，是工人和所有者之间争夺馅饼。


But there is surprisingly deep inequality in firms’ productivity, which means that the size of the pie varies radically.	但企业生产率之间也存在大得惊人的不平等，这意味着馅饼的大小区别迥异。


This is especially true in developing countries, where it is common to find differences in productivity of a factor of ten at the provincial or state level and many times higher at the municipal level.	特别是一些发展中国家，省际和州际生产率差距达到十倍以上稀松平常，市际差距更是极其巨大。


These two very different sources of inequality are often conflated, which prevents clear thinking on either one.	这两个非常不同的不平等原因常常被混淆，导致两者都得不到清晰的思考。


Both are related to a similar feature of modern production: the fact that it requires many complementary inputs.	两种不平等于现代生产的相似特征有关：生产需要许多互补性投入。


This includes not only raw materials and machines, which can be shipped around, but also many specialized labor skills, infrastructure, and rules, which cannot be moved easily and hence need to be spatially collocated.	这些投入不但包括可从国外运输的原材料和机器，也包括许多专业化劳动技能、基础设施和规则，它们无法轻易转移，因此存在空间配置。


A shortage of any of these inputs can have disastrous effects on productivity.	缺少这些投入的任何一种，都可能对生产率带来灾难性影响。


This complementarity makes many parts of the developing world unsuitable for modern production, because key inputs are missing.	互补性让许多发展中国家不适应现代生产，因为它们没有关键投入。


Even within cities, poor areas are so disconnected and inadequately endowed that productivity is dismal.	即使在城市内部，较穷的地区也常常交通不便、禀赋不足，导致生产率低迷。


As a result, there are huge disparities among firms in terms of efficiency – and hence in the income they can distribute.	结果，企业之间的效率存在巨大差异，它们可用来分配的收入亦然。


Given productivity constraints, redistribution is only palliative, not curative.	给定生产率约束，再分配只有缓和之效，没有治疗之力。


To address the problem requires investing in inclusion, endowing people with skills, and connecting them to the inputs and networks that can make them productive.	解决问题需要投资于包容，用技能武装人民，并让他们与投入和可以给他们带来生产率的网络连接起来。


The dilemma is that poor countries lack the means to connect all places to all inputs.	困境在于穷国缺少将所有地方和所有投入之间全部连起来的办法。


They are faced with the choice of connecting a few places to most inputs and getting high productivity there, or putting some of the inputs in all places and getting very little productivity growth everywhere.	它们必须选择一些地方，让它们与大部分投入品相连并获得搞生产率，或者选择将一些投入送往所有地方，让所有地方的生产率都低迷。


That is why development tends to be unequal.	这就是发展总是倾向于不平等的原因。


The other problem of modern production is how to distribute the income generated by all of the complementary inputs.	现代生产的另一个问题是如何分配所有互补性投入所创造的收入。


Today, production is carried out not just by individuals, or even by teams of people within firms, but also by teams of firms, or value chains.	如今，生产不但由个体乃至企业内部的团队实现，也由企业团队或价值链实现。


Just look at the credits at the end of any contemporary film.	看看任何一部当代电影最后的演职人员名单就可以明白这一点。


Complementarity thus creates a problem of attribution.	因此，互补性创造了一个归属问题。


How should credit for the final product be allocated, and to whom?	最终产品的功劳应该如何分配，分配给谁？


Economists have traditionally believed that each team member is paid her opportunity cost, that is, the highest income she could receive if she were kicked off the team.	传统上，经济学家认为每个团队成员应该得到等于其机会成本的报酬，也就是说，得到他被踢出情况下仍能够获得的最高收入。


In this context, if markets are characterized by what economists call perfect competition, once the opportunity cost of all inputs has been paid, there is nothing left to distribute.	在这一情形中，如果市场是经济学家所谓的完美竞争市场，则一旦所有投入的机会成本都得到补偿，就不会剩下什么可供分配。


But in real life, the team is worth more – often much more – than the opportunity cost of its members.	但在现实生活中，团队的价值总是高于——并且常常远远高于——团队成员的机会成本。


Who gets to pocket this “team surplus”?	谁能获得这一“团队剩余”？


Traditionally, the assumption has been that it accrues to shareholders.	传统假设是团队剩余都积累给股东。


But the rise of extreme CEO compensation in the US, documented by Piketty and others, may reflect CEOs’ ability to disrupt the team if they do not get part of the surplus.	但皮凯蒂和其他人指出，美国超级CEO高薪的出现也许反映了CEO有能力在他得不到部分剩余的情况下破坏团队。


After all, CEOs experience precipitous income declines when they are kicked out, indicating that they were paid far more than their opportunity cost.	毕竟，如果被炒鱿鱼，CEO的收入将大幅缩水，这表明其报酬远高于其机会成本。


In the case of successful start-ups, the money paid when they are acquired or go public accrues to those who put the team together.	在成功创业企业，被收购或上市所获得的报酬都流向了搭建团队的人。


For more conventional value chains, the surplus tends to go to the inputs that have greater market power.	至于比较传统的价值链，剩余总是流向市场实力更大的投入。


Business schools teach their students to capture the maximum surplus in the value chain by focusing on inputs that are difficult for others to provide while ensuring that other inputs are “commoditized” and hence cannot capture more than their opportunity cost.	商学院教育学生，要获得价值链的最大剩余，可以将注意力放在其他人难以提供的投入上，同时保证其他投入被“商品化”，从而无法获得高于其机会成本的报酬。


The gains do not accrue to the most deserving.	收益并不流向最应该获得收益的人。


The rise of “capital,” which Piketty documents in France and other countries, is caused mostly by the appreciation of real estate, simply because good locations become more valuable in an increasingly networked economy.	皮凯蒂指出，在法国和其他国家，“资本”的崛起主要是因为房地产升值，其唯一原因是好地段在日益网络化的经济中变得更有价值。


As with land, the current intellectual property-rights regime, by over-protecting old ideas, may provide market power that not only exacerbates income inequality but also hurts innovation.	与土地一样，目前的知识产权制度过于保护旧思想，其所提供的市场实力也许不仅放大的收入不平等，还阻碍了创新。


This means that policies aimed at ensuring an equitable outcome should rely on either owning or taxing the inputs that capture the “team surplus.”	这意味着旨在确保平等结果的政策要么应该依赖于要么拥有获得“团队剩余”的投入，要么对这些投入征税。


One reason why Singapore has a well-funded government, despite low taxes, is that its successful policies caused the land and real estate it owned to explode in value, generating a huge revenue stream.	新加坡尽管税率低，但政府从不缺钱，原因之一是其成功的政策让其所拥有的土地和房地产价值暴增，形成了巨大的收入流。


Similarly, the Colombian city of Medellín funds itself from the profits of its successful utility company, which is now a multinational player. The economist Dani Rodrik recently suggested that governments should fund themselves from the dividends earned by investing in public venture funds, thus socializing the gains from innovation.	类似地，哥伦比亚的麦德林市通过其成功的电力公司（如今已是跨国公司）的利润筹集资金。 经济学家 丹尼·罗德里克（Dani Rodrik）最近指出，政府应该通过投资于公共风险资本基金而获得的分红为自己融资，从而将创新收益社会化。


Of course, capturing this surplus may allow for income redistribution, as many suggest; but a much bigger and sustainable bang can be achieved if the proceeds go instead to financing inclusion.	当然，获得团队剩余也许如许多人认为的那样让收入再分配成为可能； 但更大、更加可持续的巨大收入只能来自让收入为包容提供资金。


In the end, inclusive growth may generate a more prosperous and egalitarian society, whereas redistribution may fail to benefit either inclusion or growth.	最终，包容增长可以创造更繁荣、更平等的社会，而再分配既不能有利于包容，也不能有利于增长。


China’s Multilateral Financial Mobilization	中国的多边金融动员


LONDON – The board of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development recently approved China’s application to join – an application a decade in the making – and sent it on to member governments for final approval.	伦敦—欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD）理事会最近批准了中国的加入申请——中国的申请历程经历了十年——并交由成员国政府最后批准。


But EBRD membership is only one expression of China’s rapidly growing role in the world’s international financial institutions.	但EBRD成员资格只是中国在世界国际金融机构中地位迅速提升的一个写照。


The question now is whether China will spur change within them, or vice versa.	现在的问题是中国将在现有国际金融机构框架内促使它们改变，还是另辟蹊径。


The global financial crisis shook up the international financial architecture, catching many institutions off guard.	全球金融危机震撼了国际金融体系，令许多机构措手不及。


The International Monetary Fund, for example, had actually pursued sharp downsizing in the preceding years.	比如，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在此前几年中实际上在追求大幅削减规模。


But it also allowed them to prove their mettle.	但这也让它们证明自己的勇气。


Many of them – not least the IMF, but also the EBRD and the European Investment Bank – eventually showed that they could respond flexibly and, as a result, have gained expanded mandates and more capital.	许多机构——不仅包括IMF，也包括EBRD和欧洲投资银行——最终证明了它们可以灵活应对，并因此赢得了更多的权限和更多的资本。


The crisis also undermined the legitimacy of the G-7 – the countries at the root of the problem – while invigorating the G-20.	这场危机还震撼了G-7——问题的根源所在——的合法性，提高了G-20的地位。


Amid these transformations, China gained an opening to boost its global influence – one that it is determined to exploit, despite resistance from some corners.	在这些转变中间，中国赢得了增加其全球影响力的机会。 它决心抓住这一机会，哪怕有些人要反对。


It plans to use its presidency of the G-20 in 2016, for example, to advance an ambitious agenda.	比如，中国计划利用2016年担任G-20主席国的机会推进一个规模宏大的日程。


In fact, Chinese international engagement is now occurring on a scale and at a rate never seen before.	事实上，如今中国的国际参与幅度之广、速度之快可谓前所未见。


China is a member of many multilateral institutions – including several regional players like the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) – with which it is deepening its relationships, especially through co-investment in projects around the world.	中国是众多多边机构的成员国——包括非洲开发银行（AfDB）和泛美开发银行（IDB）等地区机构——并且正在深化与这些机构的关系，特别是通过在全球进行共同项目投资实现这一目的。


For example, China significantly ratcheted up its commitment to the AfDB last year through the $2 billion Africa Growing Together Fund.	比如，去年中国成立了20亿美元规模的非洲共同成长基金，大幅度提高了其对AfDB的注资。


Similarly, China’s sovereign wealth funds have served as important anchor investors in the vehicles designed by the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the EBRD to bring long-term institutional capital into their projects.	类似地，中国主权财富基金在世界银行国际金融公司和EBRD所设计的投资载体中起着重要的锚投资者的作用，将长期机构资本引入它们的项目中。


One of those funds, SAFE, is currently the only investor in the EBRD vehicle – and China has not even formally joined the organization yet.	其中一个主权财富基金SAFE目前是EBRD投资载体的唯一投资者——而中国甚至还没有正式加入EBRD。


China is also forging new institutions.	中国也在建立新机构。


The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) captured global headlines earlier this year, not just because of strong US resistance, but also because countries like Britain and Germany joined anyway.	今年早些时候，亚洲基础设施投资银行（亚投行）的成立吸引了全世界的关注，不仅是因为美国的强烈反对，也时因为英国和德国不顾美国的反对加入其中。


China also played a leading role in the formation, with its BRICS counterparts (Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa), of the New Development Bank (NDB), now headquartered in Shanghai.	中国在金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非）新开发银行（NDB）的建立过程中也起到了领导作用，NDB的总部目前设在上海。


Then there is China’s $40 billion Silk Road Fund, intended to support the infrastructure projects needed to underpin President Xi Jinping’s “one belt, one road” strategy, which aims to improve trade and communication linkages across Eurasia.	还有400亿美元规模的丝绸之路基金，意在支持习近平主席“一带一路”战略所需要的基础设施项目。 一带一路战略的目的是改善与整个欧亚（Eurasia）地区的贸易和交流联系。


China’s most ambitious effort to date, the Silk Road Fund dwarfs the activities of the more traditional international financial institutions, in terms of both scale and range of activities.	作为目前为止中国最雄心勃勃的计划，丝绸之路基金在活动规模和范围上都让更传统的国际金融机构相形见绌。


The Fund’s first initiative, the $1.65 billion Karot hydropower dam in Pakistan, will entail both direct lending to the project and equity investment in the company responsible for building the dam and managing it for 30 years.	丝绸之路基金的第一个项目——16. 5亿美元规模的巴基斯坦Karot水电站——包括直接项目贷款和对负责建造大坝并管理30年的公司的股权投资。


As it stands, the Silk Road Fund is unilateral, placing it in the same category as the China Development Bank and the state-owned investment conglomerate CITIC.	目前，丝绸之路基金为单边机构，与中国国家开发银行和国有投资巨头中信集团性质类似。


But the Chinese authorities have said that it is open for others to join, though that seems unlikely, given the scale of the Chinese commitment.	但中国当局已表示欢迎其他国家加入其中，尽管从中国投入的规模看可能性较小。


Despite the remarkable size of China’s investment projects, the country’s leaders have so far remained relatively conservative in terms of institutional innovation.	尽管中国投资项目规模巨大，但中国领导人目前对于机构创新仍相对保守。


Over the last year, however, Chinese Communist Party officials have mooted a proposal for a more experimental new multilateral financial institution geared toward “restoring the environment” – that is, supporting large projects aimed at land reclamation, water purification, and improvements in air quality.	但是，去年中共官员讨论了成立一个更具实验性的新多边金融机构以促进“重建环境”的计划——即支持土地复垦、水质净化和改善空气质量的大型项目。


Getting such an institution off the ground will not be easy, given the need for global coordination to bring potential shareholders together and for large subsidies to make investments viable.	成立如此机构绝非易事，因为这需要全球合作聚集政治相关利益方，还需要巨额补贴才能让投资变得可行。


But that kind of bold institutional innovation could fill an important gap in the global financial architecture, and cement China’s leadership in financing environmental remediation.	但此类大胆机构创新将填补全球金融体系的重要缺口，并巩固中国在环境治理融资方面的领导地位。


In the meantime, Chinese institutions are innovating on a smaller scale, as they spearhead a leaner and faster approach to financing.	与此同时，中国机构正在较小规模上创新，开发了更精致、更便捷的融资方法。


For example, the AIIB’s inaugural president, Jin Liqun, has announced plans to eliminate some of the most inefficient features of existing institutions, like the resident board and nationality restrictions on hiring.	比如，亚投行首任行长金立群宣布准备取消现有机构的一些效率最低的做法，比如常驻董事会和用人的国籍限制。


Nonetheless, China’s growing global financial role is not likely to change profoundly how existing institutions operate.	尽管如此，中国日益重要的全球金融角色不会深刻改变现有机构的运行方式。


Of course, as efforts like Jin’s highlight the flaws in existing structures, they may help to inspire reform.	当然，就像金立群强调现有体系漏洞的做法，它们或有助于启发改革。


And the EBRD can undoubtedly benefit from China’s experience with experimentation and scaling up.	EBRD毫无疑问将因为中国的尝试经验和规模扩大中获益。


But the main aim of the AIIB and the NDB seems not to be to transform the multilateral financial landscape, but to add capacity, while showing that China can build state-of-the-art institutions.	但亚投行和新开发银行的主要目的不是改变多边金融形势，而是增加多边金融实力，同时表明中国能够建立最先进的机构。


And when it comes to the EBRD, China’s stake will be tiny, at least at first; the Chinese say they are there to learn.	而至于EBRD，中国的占比将是微不足道的，至少在一开始是如此； 中国自己也表示是来学习的。


Indeed, co-investment with the EBRD can provide Chinese companies with local knowledge – and potentially even protection – as they navigate new markets.	事实上，与EBRD共同投资能够让中国公司在进入新市场时获得当地知识——甚至有可能获得保护。


For now, increased engagement in multilateral institutions seems likely to change China more than it changes the institutions, even as China’s voting power increases to reflect better its growing contributions.	目前，加大参与多边机构对中国的改变比反过来更大，即使在中国投票权增加到能够更好地反映其贡献的程度的情况下也是如此。


A closer look at the experiences of long-standing institutions – including working with civil-society groups and promoting local ownership of policies – will help China hone its strategy for engagement in Africa and elsewhere.	更近距离地学习老牌机构的经验——包括怎样与公民社会组织合作、怎样增加政策的地方所有权等——有助于中国精炼其在非洲和其他地区的参与战略。


It may even enable China to improve its own development model.	这甚至能够让中国改进其自身的发展模式。


In the longer term, however, the development challenges that China faces at home – particularly rapid environmental deterioration – could drive it to take a more transformative role, pushing for institutional innovation globally.	但是，从长期看，中国所面临的国内发展挑战——特别是环境迅速恶化——可能促使它成为更具转变力的角色，推进全球机构创新。


In Darwin’s Place	设身处地


BERKELEY – Imagine that, as a young scientist, you spent years collecting information about the foundations of how nature works.	    伯克利--让我们想像一下这样一种情形：你是一个年轻的科学家，花了许多年时间收集大自然如何运转的基础信息。


You built your reputation by collecting plants, animals, fossils, and geological samples from around the world, and sending back letters that tracked your development into a first-rate scientist.	你从全世界收集动植物、化石以及地理标本从而建立起名声。 你又回复来信，逐步成为一流的科学家。


By the time you returned from a great five-year voyage, you were surprised to find that you were a rising star.	当你从为期五年的航程中返回的时候，你惊讶地发现你成了一个冉冉升起的明星。


Throughout your trip, and in the years afterward, the mists that had obscured some incredibly simple yet powerful natural explanations lifted.	    在你整个旅程中以及随后的岁月里，那些迷惑简单而又强大无比的大自然的疑团被解决了。


You came to realize that you were in virgin intellectual territory.	你感觉到你处在知识领域的处女地。


Your academic mentors and the scientists whose works you had read were continuing to stumble over grand problems that now seemed, if not solved, at least soluble.	你阅读了学术导师以及科学家的著作，然而他们继续在根本问题上止步不前。 这些问题现在看起来即使还没有解决，也至少可以解决了。


People had been talking about evolution for decades, but you have come up with a mechanism – natural selection – that just might explain much of it.	    人们谈论进化已经几十年了。 但是你却提出了物竞天择的机制，可以对大多数问题做出解释。


You realize that to reveal what you’ve come to understand will not only revolutionize your science, but will potentially shatter many of your countrymen’s religious and philosophical foundations.    	你意识到，发表你所理解的东西不仅仅会给你的科学领域带来天翻地覆的变化，而且还有可能打破同胞们的许多宗教和世界观基础信念。


These were the circumstances in which Charles Darwin found himself in the late 1830’s and early 1840’s, when he developed the principle of natural selection and its revolutionary implication: all the Earth’s life forms could have evolved from a single common ancestor.	    这就是十九世纪三十年代末和四十年代初达尔文所面临的境况。 当时他研究确立了物竞天择的原理及其巨大无比的影响，也就是说，地球上所有的生命形式都有可能从某个共同祖先演变而来。


His was one of the most brilliant insights in the history of science: a mechanism that enabled the principle of evolution to unify and inform all of biology.	他提出了科学史上最为杰出的洞察观点，那也就是让演化原理统一并且解释所有生物的机制。


Just for a minute, put yourself in his place.	    但是等一下，你设身处地地想一想。


How would you feel?	你会感觉如何呢？


(“It is like confessing a murder,” he wrote at the time.)	达尔文当时写到：“这就像是承认谋杀一样”。


Here’s the translation to today’s world: your discovery might win you the Nobel Prize, but it also might get you a bullet in the brain from a religious fundamentalist.	放在今天，情况就会这样：你的发现或许会让你得到诺贝尔奖，但是也可能让某个宗教原教旨主义者给你的脑袋来一枪。


How do you feel about publishing now?    	现在发表你会如何感觉？


But then, at roughly the same time you finish drafting the first summary of your ideas, a book, written by an anonymous author, appears that also purports to explain how life might have changed through time, and considers some of the mechanisms that may underlie this grand history.	    但是当时，大概在你完成你的观点初稿的时候，一个匿名作者写的一本书好像也解释了生命如何随着时间而演化，并且研究了某些这一大理论的机制根基。


Have you been “scooped”? 	你有没有被别人捷足先登呢？


No, the author has many of his facts wrong and goes beyond reasonable speculation, which brings him disdain from scientists.	    没有，那个作者的许多事实都有错误，并且做出了过分的假设，这样别的科学家们对他冷眼相看。


Predictably, he fares as poorly with religious leaders, some of whom accuse him of blasphemy.	不出所料，宗教领导人对他也不好，有些人指责他亵渎神灵。


And he hasn’t independently reached your new ideas – the ideas that matter.	而他也没有独立提出你的新观点，而这些观点十分重要。


But you empathize with his position: you will be pilloried in the same way if you don’t nail down your theory with the best arguments possible and marginalize your opponents so that they have neither theological nor scientific reasons to attack you.	    但是你对他的处境表示同情。 如果你不是用最好的论据来确立你的理论、排挤你的论敌这样他们就没有神学和科学上的理由来进行攻击，你也会一样遭到当众嘲弄。


So you wait to publish.	于是你就耐心等待时机发表。


Years roll by.	    几年时间过去了。


You gather data, do experiments, read, and write.	你收集数据，进行试验，阅读和写作。


Your book becomes bigger.  Impossibly big.	你的书变得更大，大得过分了。


It is a good thing you do not have to work for a living.	幸运的是，你不必工作就可以谋生。


Then, a bolt from the blue.	    接着出现了晴空霹雳。


A letter from an old colleague in Southeast Asia with whom you’ve corresponded for years, attached to a manuscript that lays out your whole theory of natural selection in a nutshell.	你的一个在南亚的与你通信多年的老同事给你写了一封信。 信里附上了一个手稿。


He’s asking you, as a well-connected man of science, whether you would communicate his paper to the Linnean Society of London for reading and possible publication, if you think his arguments meritorious.       	这个手稿言简意赅地总结了你整个的物竞天择理论。 他还请求，如果你认为他的观点有理，作为一个在科学界交游广泛的人士，你能否把他的论文推荐到伦敦林奈学会供人评议甚至出版。


You are unsure about what to do.	    你不知如何是好。


He’s scooped you on your main idea, although he hasn’t thought through the implications, or worked out all the other ideas that comprise your theory.	尽管他对所有的后果没有考虑周全，也没有解决所有对你的理论不利的观点，但是他在你的主要观点上却捷足先登。


You don’t want to lose your investment.	你并不想失去你的投资。


You want credit where it’s due, and you want to control the game, because you have so much more to show and to support your arguments. 	你想要得到应有的声誉而且想要控制局面，因为你有如此多的东西要发表并且来支持你的论点。


So you consult scientific colleagues who have known for years how you’ve been developing your theory.	    于是你就咨询了科学界的同事们。 他们多年来就知道你是如何研究你的理论的。


They agree that it is fair to broker an arrangement with your correspondent to publish together.	他们说，应该斡旋安排让你们两人一起发表，这样公平。


This appears to satisfy everyone, but it puts you in panic mode.	这好像让大家都满意，但是却让你坐立不安。


Now you have to publish your entire theory right away, before someone else gets the credit.  It nearly kills you, but you get the book out – only an abstract of the  magnum opus that you had planned – by the end of the next year.	    现在你就不得不在被人得到荣誉之前马上发表你的整个理论。 这把你搞得很惨，但是你还是在第二年年底以前出版了书，但只不过是你所计划的巨著的摘要。


You call it  The Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life .	你把它叫做<<物竞天择的物种起源>>，或者<<受青睐物种的求生延存>>。


The reaction is immediate: 1,200 copies are published, and they sell out immediately.  There are welcome reviews from scientists, but also sharp broadsides from religious people.	出版了1200本书，马上被抢购一空。 科学家们有的做出好评，但是遭到宗教人士的猛烈抨击。


Serious criticism comes from unexpected places: philosophers you knew and learned from, scientists to whom you had entrusted your priceless collections to describe.	严肃认真的评论来自意想不到的地方。 他们是那些你所认识以及求教过得哲学家，还有你所委托你价值连城的收集品的科学家。


And yet: the genius of the argument is seen.	但是，论点终究还是体现了天才。


Natural selection as a theory becomes a proposition in play, needing much more work.	    物竞天择作为一项理论成为了一个现实的假设，需要大量更多的工作。


But almost no serious intellectual can continue to doubt the common ancestry of all living things.	但是几乎没有严肃认真的知识分子能够继续怀疑所有生物的共同祖先。


You’ve changed the world: people will never again look at all species as fixed entities, but as part of a single tree of life.  How do you feel?	你改变了世界，结果是人们不再把所有的物种看作固定不变的实体，而是一棵生命之树的一部分。 你现在感觉如何呢？


In Defense of International Justice	捍卫国际正义


MEXICO CITY – Not long after I took office as Mexico’s foreign minister in 2001, a novel problem came across my desk.	墨西哥城-在我2001年上任墨西哥外长不久后，一个前所未有的问题送到了我的办公桌上。


An Argentine naval officer who had resettled in Mexico under an assumed name was wanted by Spain on charges of genocide, torture, and terrorism.	一个在墨西哥用化名定居下来的前阿根廷海军军官，正被西班牙通缉，其罪名是种族灭绝罪、酷刑和恐怖主义。


The officer, Ricardo Miguel Cavallo, was implicated in abuses committed in 1977 and 1978 at the notorious Naval Mechanics School in Buenos Aires.	那名叫米格尔·卡瓦略·里卡多的军官，牵涉在1977年和1978年间在布宜诺斯艾利斯臭名昭著的海军机械学校犯下的罪行。


According to the Spanish indictment, Cavallo belonged to the operations unit of a group actively involved in kidnapping and torturing people whom the military regime perceived as leftist.	根据西班牙的起诉书，卡瓦略曾属于某个团伙的执行部门，该团伙积极参与绑架和折磨当时的军政府视为左派的人士。


The question before me was whether to extradite Cavallo to Spain, a third country, to face trial for human rights abuses committed in Argentina.	摆在我面前的问题是，是否该把卡瓦略引渡到第三国西班牙，为他在阿根廷所犯下的侵犯人权的行为接受审判。


Signing the papers would be groundbreaking, as it would signal for the first time that suspected rights abusers might face trial anywhere in the world if justice was not likely at home.	若我签署了引渡申请文件，其意义将是突破性的，因为它将首次向世人昭示，如果司法公正在本国不可能实现，涉嫌侵犯人权者可以在世界任何地方面临审判。


For me, the decision was straightforward: the crimes demanded justice, and Cavallo was more likely to be held to account in Spain than in Argentina.	对于我来说，做出这一决定是毫不犹豫的：所犯的罪行要求正义的审判。 而卡瓦略在在西班牙比在阿根廷更可能被追究责任。


Amnesty laws in Argentina at the time shielded him from prosecution.	当时阿根廷的大赦法保护他免受起诉。


I signed the extradition papers.	我签署了引渡申请文件。


Since then, many inroads have been made to ensure that the world’s most serious crimes no longer go unpunished.	自那时至今，许多方面取得了进展，以确保世界上最严重的罪犯不再逍遥法外。


The International Criminal Court is up and running, and 107 states, including Mexico, have ratified the treaty establishing the court and acceded to its jurisdiction.	国际刑事法院启动了并开始运行，包括墨西哥在内的107个国家已经批准了设立该法庭的条约，并加入其司法管辖范围。


National courts, such as those in Spain, play an increasingly strong role in combating impunity through the exercise of universal jurisdiction.	国家法院，如西班牙的法院，通过行使普遍司法权，在打击有罪不罚方面正发挥着日益强大的作用。


The rise of these types of prosecutions has in turn motivated countries, including Argentina and Chile, to repeal their amnesty laws so that suspected war criminals can be prosecuted at home.	此类起诉的出现，也促使了阿根廷和智利等国家废除了他们的大赦法，以使战犯嫌疑人可以在国内受到起诉。


The trials of Slobodan Milosevic and Charles Taylor have demonstrated that even heads of state are no longer safe from prosecution.	对斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇和查尔斯·泰勒的审判说明了，即使国家元首也不再可以被免予起诉。


The comfort level for perpetrators of these crimes is shrinking as the options for prosecution expand.	更广泛的起诉方式让犯下这些罪行的罪犯越来越感到不安。


Whether the progress in this battle against impunity continues or slides backwards is now in the hands of the United Nations Security Council.	打击有罪不罚现象的运动是否能继续取得进展还是倒退，现在取决于联合国安全理事会。


On July 14, the ICC prosecutor, Argentine lawyer Luis Moreno Ocampo, announced that he was seeking an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for orchestrating the atrocities in Darfur.	7月14日，国际刑事法院的检察官、阿根廷律师路易斯·莫雷诺奥坎波宣布，他正在寻求逮捕苏丹总统巴希尔的逮捕令，因为他策划了在达尔富尔的暴行。


Immediately after the announcement, Sudan’s government and its allies began a diplomatic campaign aimed at securing a Security Council deferral of the investigations for 12 months.	此项宣布之后，，苏丹政府和其盟国立即开始了外交活动，目的是让安理会的调查推迟12个月。


They are attracting wider support than they should – in part because of fear of retaliation against UN peacekeepers and humanitarian workers.	它们正在得到比本应得到的更大的支持 - 部分原因是因为人们害怕联合国维和人员和人道主义工作者受到报复。


But the Security Council must be extremely cautious in considering any suspension of ICC proceedings.	但是，安理会在考虑是否中止任何国际刑事法院诉讼程序的时候，必须极为谨慎。


Such a decision would be a serious setback to the movement to end impunity for the most serious crimes.	我们必须展开一场运动制止对重罪有罪不罚的现象。 而安理会如要做出上述决定，将是对这场运动的一个严重打击。


It would show that indicted warlords and dictators can avoid justice by holding the Security Council hostage to threats of more violence.	这等于表明，被起诉的军阀和独裁者，可以通过声称将以更多的暴力来要挟安理会，以此来逃避正义的审判。


Suspending the ICC’s work in this way would undermine its potential for deterrence, one of the purposes for which it was established. Postponing the case against al-Bashir would seriously undercut the important principle – which has gradually been taking root worldwide – that no one is above the law.	以这种方式中止国际刑事法院的工作，会削弱法院的威慑力量，这种威慑力就是该法院成立的目的之一。 推迟对巴希尔案件的审理，将严重损害在世界范围已逐渐深入人心的一条重要原则，即任何人都不能凌驾于法律之上。


The Security Council’s decision to refer the situation in Darfur to the ICC prosecutor in March 2005 was itself a major milestone in the battle against impunity.	安理会在2005年3月决定将达尔富尔局势提交国际刑事法院的检察官，这本身就是打击有罪不罚的现象的一个重要的里程碑。


That decision demonstrated, for the first time, that there was an institution that could investigate and prosecute the most serious international crimes regardless of where they occur.	这一决定首次向世界昭示，无论最令人发指的国际罪行发生在哪里，有这样一个机构可以来进行调查和起诉。


Apart from being a victory for international justice, the referral was also a promise to victims of the horrific crimes in Darfur that the perpetrators of the crimes against them would one day be held accountable.	上述的提交，不仅是国际正义的胜利，也是对在达尔富尔罪行中的受害者的承诺，即，对他们犯下的罪行的罪犯总有一天会被追究责任的。


For the Security Council to step back from that commitment would do more than abandon the victims in Darfur. It would be a major blow to those around the world who have struggled to put an end to impunity for perpetrators of humanity’s most terrible crimes.	安理会如果收回这一承诺，不仅会抛弃了达尔富尔的受害者们，而对于那些在世界各地不屈不挠地制止对犯有人类的最可怕的罪行的罪犯有罪不罚现象的人们，也将是一个重大打击。


In Defense of Polish Plumbers	波兰水暖工辩


Supporters of Europe’s social model claim that what distinguishes it is the importance placed on “social cohesion.”	欧洲社会模式的支持者宣称，这一模式的过人之处就是其对“社会凝聚”的重视。


And, of course, it is as difficult to be against cohesion as it is to be against friendship.	而且，人们就像难以反对友谊一样难以反对凝聚。


But the real question is which policies work best.	但是真正的问题是哪些政策最为有效。


Existing policies to achieve social cohesion are based on the belief that, if uncorrected, the free play of market forces will lead to wide disparities in income and thus intensify social conflict.	现有实现社会凝聚的政策建立在这一信念基础之上，那就是，市场力量如果不加以调节就会导致巨大的收入差距，从而激化社会冲突。


But studies tend to show that the majority of income transfers by government occur within the middle class, while only a relatively small proportion are from rich to poor.	但是研究结果往往表明，政府收入转移的大部分都在中产阶级中进行，而只有一小部分是从富人流向穷人。


In fact, some transfers flow the other way.	实际上，某些转移的方向正好相反。


For example, many pension systems transfer money from the poor to the middle class, simply because richer people usually live longer.	例如，仅仅是由于较为富有的人一般寿命较长，因此，许多养老金体系将金钱从穷人转移到中产阶级。


What most European countries get for their social expenditure is a lot of state provision of services, and not much reduction in social inequality.	大多数欧洲国家从它们的社会支出中得到的是大量的由国家提供的服务，而并没有大量减少社会不平等。


So lower levels of social expenditure could involve only a relatively small increase in inequality and social conflict.	因此，较低水平的社会支出只会产生相对较小的不平等增加和社会冲突。


Moreover, if Europeans target social expenditure better, they might achieve a greater reduction in inequality with a lower level of social transfers.	而且，如果欧洲人提高社会支出的针对性，那么，他们就可能会用较低的社会转移水平较大地减少社会不平等。


Indeed, some policies aimed at achieving cohesion may well reduce it.	确实，某些意在实现凝聚的政策适得其反。


Restriction on firing employees, for example, may protect people who have jobs, but often at the expense of the unemployed, thus increasing social exclusion.	例如，限制解雇员工有可能保护有工作的人，但是以失业者为代价的，从而增加了社会排斥。


Even where high levels of social transfers actually do reduce inequality (and therefore presumably increase cohesion), they may undermine inter-communal relations if ethnic minorities are perceived as being strong net beneficiaries.	即使在加大程度的社会转移确实减少不公的情况下(而且因此而假定提高凝聚)，如果少数族裔被认为是强大的净受益人的话，那么，它们可能破坏社区之间的关系。


The European Union resulted from the tragic lessons of the first half of the twentieth century, when giving free rein to national egoism led to continental catastrophe, and increasing globalization means that economic, internal, foreign, and defense policies are unlikely to be successful when pursued exclusively at national level.	欧盟产生于二十世纪前半叶惨痛的历史教训。 当时，任凭民族自我主义发展导致整个大陆的悲剧，全球化提高意味着如果仅仅在国家层面上实施经济、国内、外交以及国防政策就难以成功。


Yet we continue to believe that social cohesion can be limited to that of the nation.	但是我们依然相信社会凝聚可以被限制在国家之中。


European cohesion funds account for only a fraction of a percent of European GDP, whereas about 10% of national income is typically spent on social transfers.	欧洲凝聚基金只占欧洲GDP的一小部分，而国民收入的大约10%通常用于社会转移上面。


A massive increase in European Commission spending power to achieve greater pan-European social cohesion would be politically unacceptable to the richer members, who would have to pay for it.	大幅度增加欧盟委员会的开支权限以实现泛欧社会凝聚对于富国而言将会是在政治上难以接受的，因为这些富国将为此支出。


But neither can we accept a situation in which vast resources are spent on national cohesion, while European cohesion lags so woefully behind.	但是，我们也无法接受这样一种局面，那就是，大量资源用于国内凝聚，而欧洲范围的凝聚则远远地被抛在后面。


Fortunately, inequalities can often be reduced considerably without spending much money.	所幸的是，经常可以不用花费巨资就可以大幅度降低不平等现象。


Nothing that the EU or its individual members can do would have as great an impact on reducing income inequality in Europe than eliminating national protectionist barriers to migration, movement of capital, and provision of services.	请注意，欧盟及其成员国所做的对减少欧洲的收入不平等具有同样巨大的影响力，正如消除移民、资本流通以及提供服务上的各国保护主义壁垒一样。


Doing so would reduce inequalities not only between EU member states, but also within the poorer ones.	这样做不仅将会减少欧盟成员国之间的不平等，而且也会减少穷国内部的不平等。


The poorest of the poor would gain the most, while the rich member states would lose little, despite their popular fear of open borders.	最为贫穷的国家将会受益最多，而富有国家尽管其广大民众担心开放边界，它们则不会有所损失。


For example, during the referendum campaign in France for the European constitution, the “Polish plumber” became a symbol of the threat that European integration was supposed to pose to French workers’ standards of living.	比如，在法国为欧洲宪法而举行的公民公决中，“波兰水暖工”成为了欧洲一体化将会对法国工人的生活水准带来威胁的一个象征。


But the impact of free migration (when allowed) on French plumbers’ incomes is in fact minimal, not least because of the smallness of the new member states compared to the whole of Western Europe.	但是如果允许自由移民的话，对于法国水暖工的收入的影响实际上是相当小的，尤其是因为新的成员国与整个西欧相比实在是小得可怜。


Workers’ incomes in Britain and Ireland have not fallen measurably, despite both countries’ openness to immigration from the enlarged EU.	尽管两国对东扩的欧盟开放移民，英国和爱尔兰的工人的收入并没有产生很大程度地降低。


Free migration in the EU means that Polish plumbers will not only catch up with French plumbers, but also with Polish bankers.	欧盟内部自由移民意味着波兰的水暖工不仅将无法避免与法国的水暖工竞争，也无法避免与波兰的银行家竞争。


Middle-class people in Poland are being hit by the increased cost of the services of skilled workers, such as plumbers, and also of the less skilled, such as decorators, and the highly skilled but low paid, such as doctors.	波兰的中产阶级正受困于像水暖工这样的技术工人越来越昂贵的费用，同时像油漆匠这样低技术的工人以及像医生这样高技能但低收入的工人的费用也越来越高。


Why, then, was the European Commission’s proposed services directive, which would ensure freedom to supply services across the Union to all EU companies, vilified as the “Frankenstein directive”?	那么，为什么欧盟委员会为确保在整个欧盟提供自由服务的服务指令被诬蔑为“会毁灭其创造者的指令””呢？


Why was it fatally diluted by the European Parliament?	为什么它被欧洲议会致命地淡化呢？


Why have demands by the EU’s new member states for freer access to Western Europe’s labor and services markets, and for the right to compete with “old Europe” for investment, been stigmatized as social dumping?	为什么欧盟的新成员国要求更自由地进入西欧的劳工和服务市场以及与“旧欧洲”在投资上进行竞争的权利被指责为社会倾销呢？


Why are policies that would do the most to reduce inequality in Europe being presented as anti-social?	为什么会最大程度地减少欧洲的不平等的政策被描述为是反社会的呢？


What motivates the opponents of free service provision and labor movement in Europe is not a desire to ensure social cohesion, but a wish to maintain the status quo.	推动人们去反对欧洲的自由提供服务和劳工流动的并不是想要增强欧洲的凝聚力，而是想要维持现状。


To be sure, change creates discomfort, and may even cause tension and conflict.	事实上，变革会制造不安，甚至会带来紧张和冲突。


But the conservative attitudes underlying opposition to change are anything but “social,” for they would deny the poorest of Europe’s poor a chance to improve their lot.	但是主导反对变革的保守观点绝对不是“社会”的观点，因为它们阻止了给欧洲最贫困的人们改善生活的机会。


Indeed, such attitudes are potentially disastrous.	事实上，这种观点可能会是灾难性的。


If they came to be accepted as the guiding principles of European policy, Europe’s economy would become petrified, with stagnant growth making it impossible to afford even modest levels of social transfers.	如果它们成为欧洲政策的指导方针，那么欧洲的经济将会变得僵化、停滞不前，从而无法支付即使是温和程度的社会资金转移。


India at Play	运动中的印度


New Dehli – On June 1, the Indian Premier League came to a thundering climax with a cliffhanger final match, watched by 60,000 cheering fans in a new stadium and an estimated 300 million television viewers around the world.	新德里－6月1日，印度超级联赛在扣人心弦的决赛中达到了异乎寻常的高潮，有60,000名兴高采烈的球迷在一个新建的体育场内现场观看比赛，大约30亿名世界各地的电视观众在电视机前观看这场比赛。


As cheerleaders danced and waved brightly colored pom-poms, and star sportsmen from across the globe, clad in their teams’ multi-hued regalia, looked forward to a $2.5 million payday, black-market tickets changed hands for as much as $2,500.	在啦啦队员边跳舞边挥舞着艳丽的花球，来自世界各地的明星运动员戴着本队多彩的徽章，期盼着获得250万美元报酬的日子到来的时候，在黑市门票的转手价高达2,500美元。


Football?	是足球比赛？


Basketball?	还是是篮球比赛？


No, the IPL is the newest Indian innovation revolutionizing that most staid of Victorian sports – cricket.	都不是，印度超级联赛（IPL）是印度最新的创新，它大力改革了维多利亚时代最沉静的运动－板球。


As the globalizing world discovers a twenty-first-century India full of high-tech computer geeks, efficient businessmen, colorful fashions, and glitzy entertainment – a far cry from the old stock images of fakirs on beds of nails, maharajahs on elephants, and mendicants with begging bowls – it is also finding an India obsessed with what most regard as a nineteenth-century sport.	在全球化的世界发现21世纪的印度充满了高科技的电脑极客，能干的商人，多彩的时装以及令人炫目的各种娱乐的时候－与苦行僧的苦行生活，大象上的王公以及拿着乞讨碗的乞丐的旧有印象大不相同－它也发现印度沉迷于一个被大多数人认为是19世纪的运动的运动。


Cricket has seized the Indian national imagination like no other sport.	板球比其他运动更能抓住了印度民族的想象力。


An international match can fill 100,000-seat stadiums, while attracting TV audiences of 350 million.	一场国际比赛可以吸引10万人到场观看以及35亿名电视观众。


Airline pilots provide passengers with the latest scores; office-goers cluster around the nearest available television.	航空飞行员向乘客提供最新的得分消息； 上班的人围住最近的电视机观看比赛。


Cricketers occupy a place in India’s pantheon rivaled only by gods and Bollywood stars.	板球在印度人心目中的地位只有上帝和宝莱坞明星才能与之相比。


The performances of our heroes are analyzed with far more passion than any political crisis.	人们对我们的英雄在比赛中的表现的分析要比对任何政治危机的分析起劲得多。


In no other country does a sport so often command the front pages of leading newspapers.	在所有其他国家，从来没有一项体育运动能如此经常地占据头版头条。


Cricket first came to India with decorous English gentlemen.	板球首次是与有礼貌的英国绅士一起来到印度的。


It took nearly a century for the “natives” to learn the sport, but when they did, they took to it like snakes to their charmers.	“当地人”花了将近一个世纪来学习这项运动，但是当他们学会后，他们就像弄蛇人喜欢蛇一样喜欢上了它。


Today, the public’s obsession has made India into the sport’s global financial powerhouse, with advertisers and sponsors pouring unheard-of sums into the game.	现在，公众对它的沉迷使印度成为该项运动全球财富的源泉，广告商和赞助商在这项运动上的投入空前。


It is estimated that India alone accounts for nearly 90% of cricket’s worldwide revenues, putting the game’s traditional guardians, England and Australia, in the shade.	据统计，仅印度一个国家就几乎占全球板球收入的90%, 这使该项运动的传统参与者－英格兰和澳大利亚，大为逊色。


India has become the most influential country in the sport’s governing body, the International Cricket Council, which has moved its headquarters from London to Dubai, which has no cricketing tradition but is closer to the sport’s new fulcrum in South Asia.	印度成为这项运动的管理机构－国际板球理事会中最具影响力的国家，该理事会已经将总部从伦敦搬到了迪拜，虽然迪拜没有板球传统，但是它比较靠近板球运动在南亚的新支点。


In April and May, the new Indian Premier League revolutionized the sport.	在四月份和五月份，新印度超级联赛对这项运动进行了彻底改革。


By bringing the world’s top players to India at unprecedented salaries (one Australian player was auctioned to his new team for $1.4 million, more than most cricketers previously earned in a lifetime), and by spicing up the game through such innovations as American cheerleaders, the IPL is transforming the sport.	通过以前所未有的高薪（一个澳大利亚运动员被以140万美元的价格拍卖给了他的新球队，这个数目比之前的绝大多数板球运动员一生挣得钱都多）将世界顶级运动员引入印度，以及引入诸如美国啦啦队这样的创新来增加运动的趣味性的方式，印度超级联赛正在改变这项运动。


When the traditional English cricket season opened in April, as it has for the last couple of centuries, seasoned British journalists ruefully reported that while the players and officials were dutifully present, their minds were far away, following the fortunes of the lucrative league in India.	当传统的英国板球赛季像过去的几个世纪那样于四月份在英国开始时，老练的英国记者悲伤地报道说，虽然运动员和官员们都忠实地出席了比赛，但是他们的心思都在很远的地方，想着利润丰厚的印度联赛的财富


I have often thought that cricket is really, in the sociologist Ashis Nandy’s phrase, an Indian game accidentally discovered by the British.	我经常想，板球真正是－用社会学家阿希斯·南迪的话来说－一项偶然被英国人发现的印度运动。


Everything about cricket seems ideally suited to the Indian national character: its rich complexity, the endless possibilities and variations that can occur with each delivery, the dozen different ways of getting out – all are reminiscent of a society of infinite forms and varieties.	关于板球的任何东西都好像和印度的民族性格完美地相配：它的复杂性，每一次投球时可能发生的无穷尽的可能性和变化，许多不同的出局方法－所有这些都让人回想起一个有无限形式和变化的社会。


A country where a majority of the population still consults astrologers can well appreciate a sport in which an ill-timed cloudburst, a badly prepared pitch, a lost toss, or the sun in the eyes of a fielder can transform a game’s outcome.	一个大部分人仍然相信占星家的国家可以很好地欣赏一场由下得不是时候的倾盆大雨，一个准备不好的击球，一个不准的投球，或者接球手眼中的光线都可以改变比赛结果的体育运动。


Even the possibility that five tense, exciting, hotly-contested, and occasionally meandering days of cricketing could still end in a draw seems derived from ancient Indian philosophy, which accepts that in life the journey is as important as the destination.	5天非常紧张、兴奋和竞争激励并且有时候曲折的板球比赛依然有以平局结束的可能性，即使这种可能性也好像是源自接受这样一种观点的印度哲学：在生命中，过程与结果同样重要。


So, too, is the fact that cricket is a team game that showcases individual excellence.	同样，板球是一项展示个人优点的团体运动也是事实。


Indians have long been resigned to defeat for their national side (though this is changing), but they have always managed to produce individual record-breakers – outstanding cricketers like the batsmen Sunil Gavaskar and Sachin Tendulkar, or the all-rounders Vinoo Mankad and Kapil Dev, who were considered to be among the world’s best players, even if the Indian teams to which they belonged lost more often than they won.	虽然印度人长期以来听任他们的国家队失败（虽然现在正在改变），但是他们总是设法产生打破纪录的个人－如像击球手森尼尔·加瓦斯卡（Sunil Gavaskar）和撒青·泰杜尔卡（Sachin Tendulkar），或者是万能选手维诺·马卡德（Vinoo Mankad）和卡皮尔·戴维（Kapil Dev）这样杰出的板球运动员，他们被认为是世界上最好的选手，即使他们所在的印度球队输的次数要比他们赢的次数都少。


What offers better consolation than the thrilling endeavors of a gifted batsman or the magical wiles of a talented bowler, each performing his dharma , the individual doing his duty in a team game, just as in life each Indian fulfils his destiny within the fate of the collectivity?	在比赛中，天才的击球手通过激动人心的动作或者一个有才华的投球手通过不不可思议的计谋在履行着他们的职责，他们在一个团体比赛中像生活中的每一个印度人那样，将个人命运和集体命运联系起来，还有什么能比这提供这更好的安慰？


In the old days, cricket was reproached as a sport played by Anglicized elites in the big cities.	在过去，有人责备板球是在大城市里英国化的精英从事的运动。 但是现在全国各地的普通民众都在从事这项运动。


But now cricket is followed by the masses all over the country.	已经从小城市里走出了新的板球英雄，其中没有谁比印度的时髦队长，来自灰尘仆仆的兰契市的苦工的儿子M. S.


New cricketing heroes have emerged from small towns, none more popular than India’s swashbuckling captain, M.S. Dhoni, the son of a peon in the dusty town of Ranchi, who now commands millions in endorsement fees to tout products that his family could never have aspired to own.	S. Dhoni）更受欢迎的了，他现在获得了数百万代言费，为他家从前想都不敢想的产品作代言。


Cricket, once the sport of the British upper classes, is in India a great leveler.	曾经是英国上流社会运动的板球运动，现在在印度成为一个消除不平等的运动。


Indeed, the sport both reflects and transcends India’s diversity.	确实，这项运动反映并超越了印度的多样性。


It is entirely fitting that the Indian team has been led by captains from each of its major faiths – Hindus, Muslims, Parsis, Christians, and a colorful Sikh.	印度板球队曾经由来自印度各主要宗教派别的信仰不同的队长带领－有印度教徒，穆斯林，印度拜火教徒，基督教徒以及一个有趣的锡克教徒，这是完全适宜的。


A land divided by caste, creed, color, culture, cuisine, custom, and costume is united in consensus around a great conviction: cricket.	一个由社会等级，信条，肤色，文化，烹调习惯，风俗和装束区分的国家，在对板球的强大信念中毫无异议的团结起来了。


Thanking Bangladesh	感谢孟加拉国


NEW DELHI – This month, India’s parliament took the first step toward a potentially momentous decision: to settle a boundary dispute with Bangladesh that dates back to the 1947 partition of the subcontinent.	新德里—本月，印度议会朝一项重大决定迈出了第一步：与孟加拉国就一项可以追溯到1947年分裂时期的边境纠纷达成和解。


An agreement in this area would provide a major boost to the already warm bilateral relationship, not least by bolstering Bangladesh’s position in the region.	关于该地区的协议将进一步改善已经回暖的双边关系，也将巩固孟加拉国的地区地位。


The demarcation of the India-Pakistan border by the British was a slapdash affair, concocted by a collapsing empire in headlong retreat from its responsibilities.	英国所划定的印巴边界十分草率，是衰落帝国匆忙甩掉责任的结果。


The border itself was hastily drawn by Sir Cyril Radcliffe, a lawyer who had never visited India before receiving the assignment, and caused numerous practical problems.	边界本身由拉德克利夫（Cyril Radcliffe）爵士匆忙划定，这位律师在接受这一任命之前从未访问印度。 拉德克利夫划定的边界引起了大量实际问题。


In the eastern part of Pakistan, which became Bangladesh in 1971, Radcliffe’s frontier created two sets of anomalies.	1971年，巴基斯坦东部独立为孟加拉国。 拉德克利夫的边界制造了两大反常现象。


In some cases, one country refused to relinquish territory to the other, resulting in so-called “adverse possessions”; in others, Radcliffe left small areas of one country completely surrounded by the other’s territory.	一是一方拒绝向另一方拱手让出领土，导致所谓的“非法占有”； 二是拉德克利夫留下了许多小领地，这些领地属于某一方，但完全被另一方的领土所包围。


With 111 Indian enclaves spread over 17,000 acres in Bangladesh, and 51 Bangladeshi enclaves spread over 7,110 acres in India, a settlement would involve a net transfer of some 40 square kilometers (15.4 square miles) of territory from India to its eastern neighbor.	印度在孟加拉国拥有111片飞地，面积超过17,000英亩，而孟加拉国在印度也有51片飞地，面积超过7,110英亩。 和解将包括印度向其东邻净转移大约40平方英里领土。


That is not a huge area.	面积不是很大。


Yet it has taken nearly seven decades to make real progress toward resolving the anomalies.	然而为了解决这些反常的真正进展花了近七十年才实现。


At first, the hostility between India and Pakistan that arose soon after partition thwarted any discussion of the issue.	一开始，印度和巴基斯坦在分裂后不久就形成了对峙，导致关于该问题的讨论根本无从进行。


In 1971, though, Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan, facilitated by India, allowed for the possibility of a solution, and a land-boundary agreement was concluded in 1974.	1971年尽管孟加拉国在印度的协助下从巴基斯坦独立，从而让解决该问题成为可能，并在1974年形成了一个土地边界协议。


But a military coup in Bangladesh strained the bilateral relationship and stymied the deal.	但孟加拉国的军事政变让双边关系急转直下，也扼杀了这一协议。


Despite improved ties in the 1990s, successive Indian governments were unable – or unwilling – to risk their political capital by legitimizing the territorial transfer and settling the dispute.	尽管两国关系在20世纪90年代有所改善，但后来的诸届印度政府都无法——或不愿——拿政治资本押注将领土转移和解决纠纷合法化。


Indeed, the one prime minister who did press for an agreement, Manmohan Singh, was met with strong domestic resistance, including from a coalition ally, making it impossible to gain enough votes to adopt the required constitutional amendment.	事实上，有一位总理确实曾推进过一个协议，他就是辛格（Manmohan Singh），但他遭到了包括其执政盟友在内的强大的国内抵制，使其无法赢得足够选票实施必要的宪法修正。


The then-opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went so far as to block the bill in parliament, with the upper house’s then-opposition leader, the lawyer Arun Jaitley, arguing that India’s territory is integral to its constitution and thus “cannot be reduced or altered by an amendment.”	当时的反对党印度人民党（Bharatiya Janata Party）在议会就扼杀了这一立法，当时的上议院反对派领袖、律师贾特里（Arun Jaitley）指出，印度领土是其宪政体制不可或缺的一部分，因此“不能通过修正案减少或改变。 ”


Now, three years after thwarting Singh’s efforts, the BJP has taken over India’s government, following its resounding electoral victory in May.	如今，距离辛格方案流产已经过去了三年，印度人民党也在5月大选大获全胜后成为印度执政党。


And it has reversed many of its policy positions, including on the boundary with Bangladesh.	印度人民党改变了许多政策立场，包括与孟加拉国的边界问题。


During her first trip abroad after becoming foreign minister, the BJP’s Sushma Swaraj traveled to Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital, where she pledged to follow through on the land-boundary agreement, referring it to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs for review.	印度人民党的斯瓦拉吉（Sushma Swaraj）在出任外交部长后的首次出访就来到了孟加拉国首都达卡。 在那里，她承诺要兑现土地边境协议，并提请议会外务常委会（Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs）审议。


The committee, which I head, deliberated over three weeks of hearings, summoning senior representatives from the foreign and home ministries, as well as the government of the most affected state, West Bengal.	由我担任主席的该委员会进行了三周的听证，召集了诸多外交和内政事务的高级代表以及受影响最大西孟加拉邦政府。


On December 7, we unanimously recommended that the parliament ratify the constitutional amendment.	12月7日，我们一致建议议会批准宪法修正案。


Prime Minister Narendra Modi subsequently announced his support for the deal.	总理莫迪随后宣布支持这一协议。


Even Jaitley, now India’s finance minister and a prominent cabinet member, has not expressed any opposition.	就连贾特里——他目前担任印度财政部长和重要内阁成员——也没有表示任何反对。


And, given that Bangladesh gains the most from the settlement, both officially expanding its territory and enhancing its position relative to India, the deal should face no resistance there.	此外，由于孟加拉国是和解的主要受益方，领土得到了正式扩张，也强化了相对于印度的地位，因此孟加拉国应该不会抵制该协议。


In short, the deal’s implementation seems all but assured.	简言之，该协议的实施似乎已是水到渠成。


The only potential sticking point in India is the perception that it is surrendering its territory.	在印度，唯一的潜在障碍是人们也许认为这是割让国土。


To prevent such a misperception from hampering the bill’s passage through India’s parliament, the country’s leaders must explain to the public that neither India nor Bangladesh will be relinquishing territory that it actually controls at the moment.	为了防止这样的误解阻碍法案通过议会，印度领导人必须向公众解释，印度和孟加拉国都不必放弃现在实际控制的领土。


The territory being exchanged comprises lawless enclaves, where the nominal sovereign lacks real authority.	被交换的领土都是主权有名无实的法外飞地。


In fact, India has no access to the enclaves within Bangladesh that it supposedly rules; there are no customs posts, border markings, post offices, or police to reflect India’s control.	事实上，印度根本无法进入位于孟加拉国境内但理应由印度治理的飞地； 这些飞地没有体现印度控制的海关、界标、邮局和警察。


The people inhabiting these enclaves are theoretically Indian citizens, but they lack the rights and privileges that their counterparts elsewhere in India enjoy.	定居于这些飞地的居民理论上是印度公民，但根本享受不到其他地方的印度人所享有的权利和特权。


Eliminating the anomalies will merely regularize the reality; the loss of territory will occur purely on paper.	消除反常状态只能让现实合法化； 领土损失只不过是纸面算盘。


The only potential change is that some residents of the Indian enclaves may migrate to India after the settlement, if they so choose.	唯一的潜在变数是一些印度飞地上的居民可能在和解后移居印度——如果他们选择如此的话。


Otherwise, they will become citizens of Bangladesh.	否则他们将成为孟加拉国公民。


Given that the enclaves’ residents have presumably lost much of their cultural or personal ties with India since 1947, most are expected to remain where they are.	自1947年以来，这些飞地的居民应该已经丧失了大部分与印度的文化和个人联系，因此预计大部分会留在原地。


A land-boundary agreement’s impact would thus be most apparent in the two countries’ diplomatic relationship.	因此，土地边界协议的影响主要在于两国的外交关系。


Already, Bangladesh’s Awami League government, which returned to power this year after a controversial election that was boycotted by the principal opposition party, has embraced an unprecedented level of cooperation with India on security and counter-terrorism issues.	今年通过受主要反对党抵制的有争议的选举重新上台执政的孟加拉国人民联盟党（Awami League）政府已经与印度就安全和反恐问题作了前所未有的合作。


Under less friendly regimes, Bangladesh had been a haven for terrorist and militant groups that wreaked havoc in India.	在不太友好的政权的通知下，过去孟加拉国一直是在印度为非作歹的恐怖和军事组织的避风港。


Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government has not just denied these groups shelter; it has actively intercepted them, arrested some of their leaders, and even handed wanted terrorists over to the Indian government.	总理哈西娜政府不但拒绝为这些组织提供庇护所、实际上还开始整治他们，逮捕了一些组织领袖，甚至向印度政府引渡了一些通缉犯。


If terrorist bombs are no longer going off in the Indian state of Assam, it is thanks to the government in Dhaka.	如果恐怖分子的炸弹不再在印度阿萨姆邦炸响，我们要感谢达卡政府。


Giving Bangladesh legal rights to territory within its own borders is the least India can do to express its gratitude.	给予孟加拉国在其自身边界内的领土权利可以聊表印度的感激之情。


If India is to eliminate the discrimination and indignities faced by members of its lower castes, it must transcend the politics of identity and focus on broader development goals and socioeconomic challenges.	印度要想消除低种姓人民所面临的歧视和蔑视，就必须超越身份政治，着眼于更广的发展目标和��会经济挑战。


India’s Cow Vigilantes	印度神牛纠察队


NEW DELHI – Indian politics continues to amaze and appall.	发自新德里——印度政治总是不缺令人惊奇和惊恐的元素。


The surge in cow vigilantism – a uniquely Indian phenomenon that has lately begun to flourish under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government – is no exception.	而神牛纠察行动——一个近来开始在印度人民党（Bharatiya Janata Party）政府领导下逐渐抬头的独特印度现象——的不断激增也不例外。


Many orthodox Hindus, particularly in the northern Indian states that comprise the so-called Cow Belt, worship the cow as gau mata, the “mother of all,” which provides nourishment and sustenance through its milk – not its meat.	许多正统印度教徒，尤其是位处北部印度各邦的神牛带状区域（Cow Belt）的民众，崇拜牛并将其视之为gau mata，既“万物之母”，因为牛通过提供的牛奶维持人们的营养和生计——但牛肉除外。


Refusing to eat beef is common in these states.	拒绝食用牛肉在这些邦是普遍现象。


But it is not always a personal choice.	但这可不仅仅是某种个人选择。


Several Indian states have passed laws outlawing cow slaughter, and some have prohibited the possession and consumption of beef altogether.	印度好几个邦已经通过法律取缔牛宰杀，有的甚至完全禁止贮藏和食用牛肉。


Cow slaughter and beef consumption are fully legal in just five of India’s 29 states, mainly in the south and northeast.	屠宰和食用牛肉仅仅在印度29个州中的五个是完全合法的，而这些邦主要位于在南部和东北部。


In the past, cow-protection laws have been weakly enforced, if at all; the police have better things to do than to check people’s kitchens, after all.	在过去，相关神牛保护法的执行力度较弱，甚至没有； 毕竟比起检查人们的厨房，印度警方还有其他事情要忙。


But since the victory of the Hindu-chauvinist BJP in the 2014 general election, a wave of religious triumphalism has swept India, bringing with it not just new cow-protection laws, but also vociferous demands for their strict enforcement.	但随着持有印度教沙文主义立场的印度人民党在2014年获得大选胜利，宗教必胜的浪潮席卷印度，不仅催生了新的神牛保护法，还爆发了强大的呼声要求严格执行。


Gau Rakshak Samitis, or “cow protection societies,” have been revived, and their members sometimes take it upon themselves to ensure that cows are not slaughtered or eaten.	神牛保护协会（Gau Rakshak Samitis）重新兴起，而其成员有时会肆意赋予自己确保奶牛不宰杀或食用的权力。


Making matters worse, the cause of cow protection has now been linked to another persistent and destructive custom in Indian society: violence against Muslims and Dalits (formerly called “untouchables”).	更糟糕的是，神牛保护行动与印度社会的另一个持久和毁灭性的习俗实现挂上了钩：针对穆斯林和达利特人（以前称为“贱民”）的暴力行为。


Indeed, the Cow Belt, where cow vigilantism is most rampant, is also a hub of atrocities against Dalits, 63% of which occur in just four states: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.	事实上，牛纠察行动维持最猖獗的神牛带状区域，也是对达利特的暴行最为集中的区域，其中63％的暴行都发生在四个州：北方邦，比哈尔邦，中央邦，拉贾斯坦邦。


It is no coincidence that these are also the states where the BJP fared best in 2014.	这不是巧合，因为它们正是人民党2014年竞选表现最佳的几个邦。


The link between cows and Dalits is well known.	牛和贱民之间的联结是众所周知的。


Cows may be considered holy, but they are not immortal, and when they die (ideally of natural causes), someone must dispose of their carcasses.	牛虽然神圣，但也不是永生不死的，一旦它们死了（一般基于自然原因），就得有人来处理它们的尸体。


For centuries, that job has fallen to Dalits, who collect the carcasses, skin them and sell their hides to tanners and leather-makers, deliver the meat to Muslim butchers (where it is legal), and bury or cremate what remains.	数百年来这项工作都归于达利特人，他们收集尸体，剥下牛皮并卖给制革商，把肉卖给（在合法地区的）穆斯林屠夫，然后把残骸埋葬或火化。


It is a livelihood for a group with few economic opportunities – one that benefits the many Hindus who would not want to perform such an unpleasant task.	这份活为达利特人这个本来在经济地位极为低下的群体提供了生机——也有利于许多不想沾手这份苦差的印度教徒。


But several recent incidents have shaken the foundations of this arrangement.	但最近几起事件却动摇了这种社会分工的基础。


In the state of Gujarat, four Dalit youths caught skinning a cow were stripped, tied, and beaten with iron rods by cow vigilantes who accused them of killing the animal (they had not).	在古吉拉特邦，4个达利特青年被神牛纠察队员剥光衣服，绑起来用铁棍殴打，指控他们杀了那头牛（事实并非如此）。


In BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh, two Dalit women were assaulted for supposedly carrying illegal cow meat (it was legal buffalo meat).	在人民党统治的中央邦，两名达利特妇女被指控携带非法牛肉（其实是合法的水牛肉）而遭到袭击。


In Punjab, two young Dalits were beaten and urinated upon for the same “crime.”	在旁遮普邦，两个达利特青年因为同一“罪行”而被殴打和撒尿侮辱。


A 16-year-old Kashmiri Muslim boy was murdered for having hitched a ride on a truck that was transporting cattle.	一名16岁的克什米尔穆斯林男孩因为扒到一辆刚刚运送过牛的卡车上坐了一程就遭到了杀害。


Such incidents have heightened the sense of vulnerability felt by many who do not necessarily share the vigilantes’ reverence for cows. They have also led to serious economic challenges for some groups.	类似的事件令许多并不像那些纠察队员那般崇敬牛的人们感到危机四伏，还导致对某些群体在经济上陷入了困境。


Farmers who raise their cows with care and respect may not be able to afford to continue caring for those that are too old to produce milk.	那些怀着崇敬之情精心喂养的奶农可能无力继续照料那些因太老而无法产奶的牛。


In the past, they would address this by quietly selling the aged cows either to local butchers or to those who would transport them to states where cow slaughter is legal.	在过去，他们会悄悄地把这些老牛卖给当地的屠夫或把它们运往屠宰合法的邦。


But, because that would be far too dangerous in the current political climate, many farmers are being driven into debt caring for old cows, while the cow population in India becomes increasingly unsustainable.	但在当前的政治气候下此举变得太过危险，许多农民只能举债喂养老牛，而在印度已经越来越难以承载如此庞大的牛只数量。


Moreover, Dalits are increasingly refusing to dispose of cow carcasses.	此外，越来越多达利特人拒绝处理牛尸体。


After the Gujarat incident, one group of Dalits in the state declared outright their intention to suspend their traditional duties.	古吉拉特邦事件发生后，住在该地的一批达利特人宣布暂停承担他们的传统职责。


“If the cow is your mother,” they challenged upper-caste Hindus, “why don’t you bury her?”	“如果你真把牛当娘来孝敬，”他们质疑那些上等种姓的印度教徒，“你为啥不亲手不把她埋了？ ”


Where has the central government been as all of this has been happening?	那么当这一切发生时中央政府在干什么？


Initially, it did not condemn cow vigilantism.	最初，它并未谴责这些神牛纠察队。


India’s social justice minister, whose principal responsibility is to promote the welfare of India’s Dalits, expressed regret not for the vigilantes’ violent actions, but for the fact that they were spurred by ill-founded rumors.	印度社会公正部部长——其主要职责是促进印度的达利特人的福利——对此表示遗憾，但并不是针对对纠察队的暴力行为，而是认为他们被不实传言所伤害了。


This view was reflected in the government’s response to an attack in Uttar Pradesh, where a mob lynched a Muslim and beat his son nearly to death, simply because they suspected that he had killed a cow.	这种观点反映在政府对北方邦袭击事件的反应上，一名暴徒毒打一位穆斯林和并差点把他儿子打死，仅仅是因为他们怀疑他杀死了一头牛。


Rather than leaping to the victims’ defense, the authorities launched a forensic investigation into whether the meat in his refrigerator was beef (it was not).	当局不是立刻去维护受害者的权益，而是展开了��证调查研究他的冰箱里那块是否是牛肉（结果发现不是）。


The implication was clear: violence is unjustifiable only if the victim has not actually killed or eaten a cow.	言下之意很清楚：只有在受害人实际上并没有杀死或吃掉一头牛的时候，暴力才是不正当的。


But on August 6, Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally broke his silence on the issue, warning people to beware of the fake Gau Rakshaks (protectors of cows) who are trying to create social conflict.	但在8月6日，总理莫迪终于打破了他个人在这个问题上的沉默，警告人们提防那些试图挑起社会冲突的假冒神牛保护者（Gau Rakshaks）。


“All states should take stern action against these people,” he declared.	“各邦应对这些人采取严厉行动，”他宣称。


Modi’s words surely came as a relief to those who doubted the government’s willingness to stand up against its own sympathizers.	莫迪的话肯定让那些怀疑政府会愿意站出来反对自身同情者的人松了一口气。


Yet cow vigilantism is far from extinguished in India.	然而与牛有关的私刑杀害在印度远未消失。


If the Dalits allow rotting cow carcasses to pile up around the country, perhaps the stink will finally overwhelm it.	如果贱民允许腐烂的尸体牛堆积在全国各地，也许臭味将最终压倒这些行为。


But, with Hindu chauvinism going strong, many Indians will still have plenty of reasons to hold their noses.	但随着印度教沙文主义日渐强劲，许多印度人仍然得在相当一段时间内捏着自己鼻子。


India’s Demonetization Disaster	印度的废钞灾难


NE W DELHI – On November 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that, at the stroke of midnight, some 14 trillion rupees worth of 500- and 1,000-rupee notes – 86% of all the currency in circulation – would no longer be legal tender.	新德里—11月8日，印度总理莫迪宣布，当日午夜，价值14万亿卢比的500和1,000卢比面额钞票——占所有流通中货币的86%——不再是法定货币。


With that, India’s economy was plunged into chaos.	印度经济应声陷入混乱。


Modi’s stated goal was to make good on his campaign pledge to fight “black money”: the illicit proceeds – often held as cash – of tax evasion, crime, and corruption.	据称莫迪的目标是兑现其打击“黑钱”——来自逃税、犯罪和腐败的非法所得，通常为现金形式——的竞选承诺。


He also hoped to render worthless the counterfeit notes reportedly printed by Pakistan to fuel terrorism against India.	他还想让据报道由巴基斯坦制作、用于助力针对印度的恐怖主义的伪钞变成废纸。


Nearly a month later, however, all the demonetization drive has achieved is severe economic disruption.	但是，近一个月之后，废钞行动的全部成果是一场经济灾难。


Far from being a masterstroke, Modi’s decision seems to have been a miscalculation of epic proportions.	莫迪的这个决定一点都不高明，倒是一个大大的误算。


The announcement immediately triggered a mad scramble to unload the expiring banknotes.	宣布废钞立刻引起了一场疯狂，人们竞相兑换即将作废的钞票。


Though people have until the end of the year to deposit the notes in bank accounts, doing so in large quantities could expose them to high taxes and fines.	尽管印度人到今年年底之前都可以将钞票存入银行，但大量存钱将让他们承担高额税金和罚款。


So they rushed to gas pumps, to jewelry shops, and to creditors to repay loans.	因此他们蜂拥涌向加油站、珠宝店和贷款商归还贷款。


Long queues snaked in, out, and around banks, foreign-exchange counters, and ATMs – anywhere where people might exchange the soon-to-be-defunct notes.	银行、外汇兑换点和ATM门口的长龙见首不见尾——一切人们可以换掉这些即将作废的钞票的地点无不人头攒动。


But, upon getting to the front of the line, people were often met with strict withdrawal limits, because, in a display of shocking ineptitude, not enough new currency was printed prior to the announcement.	但是，好不容易排到了最前面，人们又往往面临严格的提款限制，因为政府之无能令人发指，在宣布决定之前根本没有印好足够的新钞。


Worse, the new notes’ design prevents them from fitting into existing ATMs, and their denomination – 2,000 rupees – is too high to be useful for most people, especially given that the government’s failure to print enough smaller-denomination notes means that few can make change.	更糟糕的是，由于设计问题，新钞无与现有ATM机不兼容，而他们的面额——2,000卢比——对于大多数人的用途来说也太大了，特别是考虑到政府无法印制足够的小面额钞票应对找零的情况。


India’s previously booming economy has now ground to a halt.	此前欣欣向荣的印度经济戛然而止。


All indicators – sales, traders’ incomes, production, and employment – are down.	所有指标——销售、贸易者收入、产量和就业——纷纷下降。


Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh estimates that India’s GDP will shrink by 1-2% in the current fiscal year.	前总理辛格（Manmohan Singh）估计当前财年印度GDP将萎缩1—2%。


But, as is so often the case, the impact is not being felt equally by all.	但是，如往常一样，这一影响并不是人人相同。


India’s wealthy, who are less reliant on cash and are more likely to hold credit cards, are relatively unaffected.	印度富人较少依赖现金，较多持有信用卡，影响相对较小。


The poor and the lower middle classes, however, rely on cash for their daily activities, and thus are the main victims of this supposedly “pro-poor” policy.	但穷人和较低收入阶级日常活动都依赖现金，因此成为这一初衷是“有利于穷人”的政策的主要受害者。


Small producers, lacking capital to stay afloat, are already shutting down.	小生产者由于缺少维持的资本，已经开始纷纷倒闭。


India’s huge number of daily wage workers can’t find employers with the cash to pay them.	印度为数巨大的日薪工人无法找到能用现金支付工资的雇主。


Local industries have suspended work for lack of money.	地方工业因为缺钱而暂停。


The informal financial sector – which conducts 40% of India’s total lending, largely in rural areas – has all but collapsed.	非正式银行部门——这里产生了印度40%的贷款总量，主要是在农村地区——也几近崩溃。


India’s fishing industry, which depends on cash sales of freshly caught fish, is wrecked.	印度捕鱼业依靠新鲜渔获的现金交易，也遭遇重创。


Traders are losing perishable stocks.	贸易业易腐坏存货损失惨重。


Farmers have been unloading produce below cost, because no one has the money to purchase it, and the winter crop could not be sown in time, because no one had cash for seeds.	农民以低于成本的价格甩货，因为没人能拿出钱来购买，而冬粮无法及时下种，因为没人能拿出现金买种子。


Despite all of this, ordinary Indians have reacted with stoicism, seemingly willing to heed Modi’s call to be patient for 50 days, even though it could be much longer – anywhere between four months and a year – before the normal money supply is restored.	尽管如此，普通印度人仍然选择了默默忍受，心甘情愿地响应莫迪等待50天的号召，即使重建正常货币供应可能耗时可能要长得多——可能需要四个月到一年。


The government’s assiduous public relations – which portrays people’s difficulties as a small sacrifice needed for the good of the country – seems to have done its job.	政府苦心经营的公共关系——将人民的困难描述成为了国家利益做出一些小牺牲——似乎收到了成效。


“If our soldiers can stand for hours every day guarding our borders,” one popular social media meme asks, “why can’t we stand for a few hours in bank queues?”	“既然我们的战士们每天都可以为捍卫边疆站岗数小时”，一位广受欢迎的社交媒体账号问道，“为什么我们就不能在银行门前排几个小时队？ ”


But the sacrifice extends far beyond queues.	但牺牲绝不仅限于排队。


Hospitals are turning away patients who have only old banknotes; families cannot buy food; and middle-class workers are unable to buy needed medicine.	医院不接收只有旧钞的病人； 家庭无法购买食物；


As many as 82 people have reportedly died in cash queues or related events.	中产阶级工人无法买到需要的药品。


Furthermore, it seems likely that many of the short-term effects of the demonetization could persist – and intensify – in the longer term, with closed businesses unable to reopen.	据报道，多达82人死在换现队伍或相关事件。 此外，许多废钞的短期效应有可能会持续更长时间，并有可能加剧，关门的企业可能无法重新开张。


It could also cause lasting damage to India’s financial institutions, especially the Reserve Bank of India, whose reputation has already suffered.	废钞和有可能对印度金融机构造成持久伤害，特别是印度储备银行，它的声誉已经受到影响。


Perhaps the worst part is that these sacrifices are not likely to achieve the government’s stated goal.	也许最糟糕的部分是这些牺牲可能无法实现政府声称的目标。


Not all black money is in cash, and not all cash is black money.	并非所有的黑钱都是现金，也并非所有的现金都是黑钱。


Those who held large quantities of black money seem to have found creative ways to launder it, rather than destroying it to avoid attracting the taxman’s attention, as the government expected.	持有大量黑钱的人似乎已经找到了洗白的方法，而不是如政府所预期那样销毁这些钱以避免吸引税务人员的注意。


As a result, most of the black money believed to have been in circulation has now flooded into banks, depriving the government of its expected dividend.	因此，大部分据信已处于流通状态的黑钱现在已经进入了银行，导致政府无法获得预期中的红利。


On top of all of this, the government’s plan does nothing to control the source of black money.	除了所有这些，政府的计划根本不能控制黑钱的源头。


It will not be long before old habits – under-invoicing, fake purchase orders and bills, reporting of non-existent transactions, and blatant bribery – generates a new store of black money.	要不了多久，旧恶习——不开发票、假订单和支票、记入不存在的交易，以及明目张胆的贿赂——就会产生新的黑钱储藏方式。


Many Modi supporters claim that the demonetization policy’s problems are a result of inept implementation.	许多莫迪支持者声称，废钞政策的问题是执行不力造成的。


But the truth is that its design was fundamentally flawed.	但真相是其设计存在根本性漏洞。


There was no “policy skeleton,” no cost-benefit analysis, and no evidence that alternative policy options were considered.	没有“政策框架”，没有成本收益分析，也没有证据表明曾经考虑过其他政策选择。


Judging by the blizzard of policy tweaks since the announcement, it seems clear that no impact study was carried out.	从发布后的剧烈政策调整风暴看，显然也没有进行过影响分析。


Yet, rather than recognize the mounting risks of the non-transparent policy environment he has created, Modi has been discussing going even further, moving India to an entirely “cashless society.”	但是，莫迪不承认他所造成的不透明的政策环境所带来的日益增加的风险，而是一直在讨论更进一步，要让印度步入“无现金社会”。


Does he not know that more than 90% of financial transactions in India are conducted in cash, or that over 90% of retail outlets lack so much as a card reader?	他难道不知道印度90%的金融交易是用现金进行，或者90%以上的零售商店根本不能刷卡消费？


Is he unaware that over 85% of workers are paid in cash, and that more than half of the population is unbanked?	他难道不清楚85%的工人的工资用现金支付、一大半印度人口没有银行账户？


Modi came to power in 2014 promising to boost growth, create jobs for India’s youthful population, and encourage investment.	2014年，莫迪带着提振增长、为印度年轻人创造就业岗位和鼓励投资的承诺上台执政。


His poorly conceived demonetization has made a mockery of these objectives, while bruising his reputation as an efficient and competent manager.	他的设计拙劣的废钞政策让这些目标成为笑柄，同时也葬送了他身为高效胜任的管理者的名声。


How long it will take for India to recover is anyone’s guess.	印度需要多久才能从当前的乱局中恢复，我们只能猜测。


India’s Economy after Rajan	拉詹之后的印度经济


NEW DELHI – Raghuram Rajan’s decision not to seek a second term as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI, India’s central bank) was met with shock from those of us who have been cheering on the Indian economy.	新德里——拉詹不寻求连任印度储备银行（RBI，即印度央行）行长的决定对我们这些为印度经济欢欣鼓舞的人造成了冲击。


While it is no secret that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had its problems with Rajan, few believed that the government would take a step that so clearly undermines India’s interests.	虽然莫迪政府与拉詹之间存在问题人尽皆知，但仍然很少有人认为政府会采取这样明显有损于印度利益的举措。


The government never liked Rajan’s insistence on pursuing interest-rate cuts gradually in order to promote price stability; instead, it wanted to see them slashed aggressively, in order to spur growth.	拉詹坚持逐步降息来促进价格稳定从来就不合政府的胃口； 相反，政府希望看到大幅度降息刺激经济增长。


Nor was the government particularly enthusiastic about Rajan’s role as a public intellectual.	政府也并不热衷于拉詹所谓公共知识分子的身份。


And then, in the past few weeks, a toxic and ludicrous outburst of criticism from those close to the government erupted, focusing on Rajan’s performance and his supposed lack of “Indian-ness.”	之后，过去几周来，贴近政府的人士爆发了有毒并且荒唐的批评言论，主要是攻击拉詹的表现和他所谓“印度情结”的缺乏。


Despite all of this, there were compelling reasons to believe that Modi’s government would keep Rajan on board.	尽管如此，人们仍有充分的理由相信莫迪政府会让拉詹留任。


First and foremost, losing Rajan controverts the Modi government’s commitment, unprecedented in recent history, to attracting foreign investment to India.	首先，失去拉詹有悖于莫迪政府实现现代史上前所未有的为印度吸引外资的目标。


Since taking office in 2014, Modi has spent more time than any of his predecessors selling the so-called Indian dream to foreign investors – efforts that have helped to spur a surge in capital inflows.	从2014年就职后，莫迪为向外国投资者推销所谓印度梦所耗费的时间比任何一位前任都多——他的努力已经收到了促成资本流入激增的效果。


The recent announcement that India will now, for the first time, allow 100% foreign ownership of firms in a broad swath of industries further reinforces the message that India is open for business.	最近宣布的印度将首次允许众多行业企业100%外资持股的公告进一步印证了印度对外开放的可信度。


But the positive impact of these changes may be tempered by Rajan’s departure.	但拉詹的离任可能会影响到这些举措的积极效果。


After all, his stellar management of inflation, which has kept the Indian rupee stable, supported Modi’s efforts to attract foreign-direct investment.	毕竟，拉詹一流的通胀管理保持了卢比的稳定，为莫迪吸引直接外资的工作提供了支持。


The strengthening of other macroeconomic indicators under Rajan, including swelling foreign-exchange reserves and narrowing current-account deficits, also inspired confidence in would-be investors.	拉詹任职期间其他宏观经济指标的增强，包括外汇储备增加和经常账户赤字缩减，同样增强了潜在投资者的信心。


Given that a key motivation behind the official behavior that drove Rajan away was the ruling party’s opposition to his hawkish stance on inflation, it seems likely that investor confidence will eventually take a hit, though it may temporarily be masked by the announcement on relaxed foreign-investment norms.	鉴于赶走拉詹之举背后的官方重要意图是执政党反对他对通胀的鹰派立场，由此看来尽管有放松外资管制公告的暂时掩盖，但投资者信心将很有可能最终遭受打击。


Add to that the questions about the RBI’s independence that are sure to arise, and the extent to which Rajan’s departure could undermine Modi’s hard-won successes becomes clear.	再加上肯定会有人提出印度央行的独立性问题，拉詹离任很显然将破坏莫迪来之不易的胜利。


A second reason why Rajan’s departure came as a shock is that the Modi government has a record of making tough choices, rather than resorting to populist policies, in its fiscal management.	拉詹离任出人意料的另一个原因是莫迪政府一向在财政管理方面善于做出艰难的抉择，而不是简单地诉诸民粹主义。


Indeed, it has displayed remarkable restraint in keeping the fiscal deficit at prudent levels.	事实上，莫迪政府在保持财政赤字位于审慎水平的问题上表现出令人赞叹的自我克制。


Yet it continues to blame a lack of demand on Rajan’s refusal to slash interest rates, rather than on, say, the finance ministry for failing to raise spending or cut taxes sufficiently.	但它却继续将需求欠缺的问题归咎于拉詹拒绝大幅度削减利率，而不是要求财政部长为未能提高支出或充分减税负责。


This is not to argue that interest rates could not be lower in India.	这并不是说印度不能降低利率。


In fact, there is room for debate on that topic.	事实上，就这个问题是有探讨空间的。


But, in forming an opinion, a few facts should be kept in mind.	但必须要了解若干事实才能确定自己的看法。


First, almost all historical instances of disinflation have been associated with a transition period when growth was negatively affected.	首先，历史上经济增长遭受负面影响时几乎所有的反通胀实例都伴随着一段时间的转型过渡。


The countries that remained disciplined, such as Chile, ended up achieving sustained growth; those that gave up, like Argentina, ended up with high inflation and no growth.	那些严守纪律的国家，比如智利，最终实现了持续增长； 而那些中途放弃的国家，如阿根廷，却只剩下了高通胀和增长停滞。


Second, in explaining low investment and job creation, there are many potential culprits besides interest rates.	其次，在寻找投资和就业机会不足的原因的时候，除利率外还有很多潜在的罪魁祸首。


The debt overhang within India’s biggest companies and the large volume of bad assets held by its biggest banks have created an unholy nexus that is blocking sustainable growth – and that cannot be offset by interest-rate cuts.	印度最大企业负担的债务及其最大银行持有的巨额不良资产构成了阻碍持续增长的邪恶关系——而且这一因素并不能被降息所抵消。


The experience in Japan, where not even negative interest rates have been sufficient to spur growth in an economy burdened by so-called zombie banks, makes this starkly apparent.	日本就连负利率都不足以刺激所谓僵尸银行拖累的经济重回增长，这样的经历赤裸裸地凸显了这一事实。


Over the last two years, the hard work of the Modi government and the Rajan-led RBI has enabled India to distinguish itself among emerging-market economies.	两年来，莫迪政府和拉詹领导的印度央行通过辛勤工作让印度领先于新兴市场经济体。


As countries like China and Brazil have slipped in their economic management, India signaled that it is a mature economy, where prudent macroeconomic decisions are taken based on technical expertise, not political whim.	随着中国和巴西等国经济管理出现下滑，印度展示出自己是一个成熟经济体，基于技术专长、而非政治上的心血来潮作出审慎的宏观决策。


This raised its profile in the international arena substantially.	这使得印度在国际舞台上的形象大为提高。


But, following the episode between Rajan and the government – and considering the unsavory manner in which it played out – there is reason to worry that India, too, may now stumble in its economic governance.	但在拉詹和政府一幕上演之后——同时考虑到这一事件令人厌恶的进展方式——人们有理由担心印度现在也会犯下经济管理方面的错误。


With commodity prices recovering, risks of a Chinese hard landing growing, and the European Union facing an uncertain future, that is an outcome that India can ill afford.	随着大宗商品价格回升、中国硬着陆风险加大以及欧盟未来不确定性增强，印度根本无法承受这样的结果。


Rajan would have been the ideal candidate to guide Indian monetary policy in this testing time.	拉詹本来是在这个艰难时期引导印度货币政策的理想人选。


Now that he is gone, one can only hope that Modi and his government ensure that the next RBI governor is of comparable caliber, with the capability – and independence – to uphold the institution’s credibility through decisive action.	现在他宣布离任，我们只能希望莫迪及其政府确保下一任印度央行行长水平相近，有能力——也有独立性——来果断行动维护央行的可信度。


Once they find one, they should remember that good central-bank governors are not dispensable.	如果他们真能找到，他们应当牢记好的央行行长绝非可有可无。


India Embraces the Welfare State	印度迈向福利国家


NEW DELHI – In recent weeks, India’s parliament, often justifiably derided for the frequent disruptions that mar its work, has surprised its detractors by passing two crucial pieces of legislation that could transform the lives of hundreds of millions of people.	新德里—最近几周以来，经常以频繁的工作间断授人口实、被人嘲笑的印度议会让批评者大跌了一回眼镜——它通过了两项可能改变数亿人生活的关键性立法。


The first, the Food Security Act, grants 67% of India’s population a right to 35 kilograms of rice or wheat for three rupees (less than five US cents) per kilo.	第一项立法是食品安全法，该法授予印度人民以每公斤3卢比（不到5美分）的价格购买35公斤稻米或小麦的权利。


Together with related provisions that would provide meals to infants and expectant mothers, and subsidized pulses to supplement cheaply available food grains, the law will add $6 billion to India’s annual fiscal deficit.	再加上向婴儿和孕妇提供的相关肉食补贴以及作为廉价食用谷物补充品的补贴豆类，该法买年将给印度增加60亿美元的财政赤字。


But it would also abolish the risk of starvation and malnutrition in a land where too many have gone hungry for too long.	但它同时也将在太多人经受了太长时间饥饿的印度消灭饥馑和营养不良风险。


The second law assures fair – indeed generous – compensation to people, often small-scale farmers, whose land is acquired by the state for development purposes.	第二项立法许诺给予人民相当丰厚——事实上，称得上慷慨——的补偿。 补偿对象是土地以开发目的被国家征用的印度人，通常是小农。


In a country where two-thirds of the population is still dependent on agriculture and small holdings are all that a majority of Indians live on, the new law helps those who have often felt exploited and deprived of their livelihoods by the state’s power of eminent domain.	在三分之二人口仍依赖农业、大部分人民所赖以生活的资产还相当小的印度来说，这项新法律能帮助那些通常感到自己被国家土地征用权力掠夺和驱逐的印度人。


The new law requires the consent of 80% of a major tract’s landowners before the state can acquire it, and includes exacting provisions for the rehabilitation and resettlement of those affected.	这项新法律要求国家征用土地必须经过80%以上所有者同意，并规定必须为受影响者提供明确的复建和回迁。


It will even compensate tenant farmers for their loss of livelihoods and require that those displaced by land acquisition be offered employment in the institutions that displace them.	该法甚至要求补偿佃农生活损失、拆迁机构必须给因土地兼并而失去家园者提供工作岗位。


Detractors on the right insist that the new laws will break the budget and undermine economic growth, while opponents on the left argue that they do not go far enough in covering all of India’s poor and vulnerable. The government believes that criticism from both sides suggests that the laws strike an appropriate balance.	这两项法律——食品安全法和土地兼并法——彰显出印度政府正在缓慢但扎实地将世界最大民主国家建设成公民福祉建立在权利和权益而不是转瞬即逝的慈善的基础上的社会。


At a time when democracies are struggling with various models of welfarism, seeking to balance the imperative of fiscal retrenchment with alleviating the insecurity of vulnerable populations, India has moved in a direction that few thought possible for a developing country.	当前，各民主国家正在各种福利主义模式中苦苦挣扎，试图在财政节约的必要性和增加脆弱人口的安全感寻找平衡。 印度在朝一个鲜有人认为适合发展中国家的方向努力。


From the Right to Information Act, which has empowered citizens and boosted government accountability and transparency, to the Right to Education Act, which has led to record-high school enrollment and pumped resources into moribund classrooms, the current government’s reforms have changed the face of Indian society.	从权利和信息法（Right to Information Act，该法授予人民权力并增强了政府的可问责性和透明度）到教育权利法（Right to Education Act，该法造就了创纪录的入学率，让濒临倒闭的教室获得了源源不断的资源），现任政府的一系列改革改变了印度社会的面貌。


One in five rural households benefit from the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, which provides employment mostly to the Scheduled Castes, the Scheduled Tribes, and women in villages (in my own state, Kerala, 92% of the beneficiaries are women, whose lives have been transformed by their new income).	五分之一的农村家庭从圣雄甘地全国农村就业保障法（Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act）中获益，该法主要为表列种姓、表列部落以及农村留守妇女提供就业（在我所在的喀拉拉邦，92%的受益者是妇女，她们的生活因为新的收入源而改变）。


By raising the bargaining power of agricultural labor, the act’s passage has led to higher farm wages, greater purchasing power for the rural poor, and lower distress migration.	通过提高农村劳动力的议价能力，该法的通过增加了农民收入、提高了农村穷人的购买力，减少了被迫迁移。


And sustained government investment in public health is reflected in steady improvement in India’s infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, and life expectancy.	政府在公共健康方面的持续投入体现于印度不断下降的婴儿死亡率、产妇死亡率和不断增加的寿命预期上。


These measures cost money, but they also enable the poor to break free of poverty.	这些措施需要花钱，但它们也让穷人冲破了贫困的藩篱。


When government policies keep India’s telecom rates among the lowest in the world, it ensures that the poor can have access to a technology that increases their autonomy.	政府政策让印度的电信费率保持在世界最低水平，确保穷人可以获得这项能增加他们自主性的技术。


When the government promotes food security, it is part of a bold effort to strengthen agriculture, which has led to record-high production of food grains.	政府推进食品安全是作为增强农业的大胆计划的一部分，这项计划带来了食用谷物产量新纪录。


At the same time, economic reform has not been abandoned.	与此同时，经济改革也没有放弃。


Controversial budget provisions that had earlier deterred investors are being reviewed.	此前吓退投资者的争议性预算规定正在重新考虑中。


The decision to permit foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail and civil aviation has been pursued, even at the cost of losing a recalcitrant coalition ally.	允许外国直接投资进入多品牌零售业和民航业的决定已经做出，尽管这引起了顽固派联盟的反弹。


Subsidies on diesel and cooking gas have been reduced in the face of vociferous opposition.	对柴油和食用油的补贴被降低，尽管阻挠之声很大。


Pension reforms have been passed, and insurance reforms are on the anvil.	养老金改革也获得了通过，保险改革也在讨论中。


India has suffered, like most developing countries, from declining foreign investment, poor export performance, and a depreciating currency.	与大部分发展中国家一样，印度因为外国投资下降、出口表现不力和货币贬值而蒙受损失。


But even pessimistic estimates project 5% growth in the coming fiscal year, and a good monsoon should ensure a bumper harvest.	但即使是悲观的估计也表明下一个财政年度将有5%的增长，而有利的季风将保证丰收。


The measures that India should take to get its economic narrative back on track are the stuff of heated debate among economists and pundits.	印度应该采取什么措施让让其经济重回正轨？ 经济学家和专家正在热烈地进行探讨。


But for the aam aadmi – the common man in whose name every party claims to speak – these debates pale in significance beside the major steps taken to build a social safety net in a country where everyone had been expected to fend for himself.	但对“aam aadmi”——你在各种聚会上都能碰到的普通人——来说，这些争论是无关紧要的，重要的是在印度这个人人需要自谋生路的国家建立一张社会安全网。


Cynics say the new measures are motivated by political considerations alone: the next general election is due by May 2014.	愤世嫉俗者说，新措施纯粹是出于政治考虑动机：2014年5月将进行新一轮大选。


Before it was passed, one wit joked that the Food Security Bill meant “food for the poor, security for the ruling party, and the bill for the taxpayer.”	在食品安全法通过前，一位智者打趣说，该法意味着“给穷人食物，给执政党安全，让纳税人买单。


But it should be no surprise in a democracy that the government should pursue policies that are popular with a majority of voters.	”但在一个民主国家中，政府追求大多数选民认可的政策并不令人奇怪。


The fiscal costs of such measures are high, but the average Indian is better off now than he or she was nine years ago.	这些措施的财政成本确实很高，但如今普通印度人的境况比九年前要好得多。


Any government would feel vindicated by that record.	任何政府都可以用这一记录作为政绩的证明。


India’s Censored Fight Back	印度被审查者的反击


NEW DELHI – Go to see a movie in India nowadays, and despite the elaborate musical numbers and extravagant sets, you may well find the content pretty bland.	新德里—现在你去看印度电影，尽管配乐精美，服饰华丽，但内容却空洞无物。


The reason is simple: the industry is reeling under severe censorship.	原因很简单：电影业在严格的审查制度下苟延残喘。


This flies in the face of India’s democratic tradition – and it needs to stop.	这与印度的民主传统背道而驰——必须阻止。


Censorship has a peculiar status in India.	审查在印度拥有特殊地位。


When it comes to news media, print or broadcast, censorship is utterly unacceptable, even unthinkable.	对于新闻媒体，不管是纸媒还是广播，审查都是绝对不可接受甚至不可想象的。


Yet all films produced by India’s prolific film industry must be reviewed and approved by the Central Board of Film Certification, which has the authority to demand that scenes be cut or language changed before a film can be screened publicly.	但是，高产的印度电影业的每一部出品影片都要经过中央电影授权委员会（Central Board of Film Certification）的审核和批准，该委员会有权要求电影在公映前进行剪辑或更改语言。


The discrepancy is a matter of elitism.	这一自由裁量权属于精英主义。


Decades ago, the supposed guardians of India’s public morals decided that those with the education and good taste to read a newspaper can handle its contents, but ordinary people seeking diversion must be protected from the pernicious effects of the “wrong” kinds of entertainment.	几十年前，所谓的印度公共道德捍卫者认为，受过教育、获得良好品味、可以读报纸的人能够应对报纸的内容，但寻找消遣的普罗大众必须进行保护，以免他们收到“错误”的娱乐种类的毒害。


To be sure, violence often makes it past the censors.	诚然，暴力常常通过审查。


But sexuality is another story.	但性就是另一个故事。


While images of nudity appear in urban glossy magazines to titillate the bourgeoisie, city-based censors make sure that villagers do not see a woman’s bare breast on a movie screen.	都市小报上常常出现裸体照片从而撩动资产阶级，但城市本位的审查者却要确保农民不在电影频幕上看到女人赤裸的胸脯。


Until recently, not even a kiss could appear in a Bollywood movie; instead, as the man and woman tilted their heads toward each other, the camera would pan to two birds pecking or two flowers brushing together.	直到最近，宝莱坞影片中连接吻镜头都不许有； 相反，当一男一女彼此越靠越近时，镜头便切换为两只鸟互啄或两朵花共同绽放。


Other perceived threats to Indian culture include offensive language, gay themes, and unconventional views, especially on socially and politically sensitive topics.	其他被认为是印度文化的威胁的东西包括粗口、同性恋题材以及非传统观点，特别是在社会和政治敏感话题上。


Sentiments that we take for granted in the opinion pages of newspapers rarely find their way into Bollywood blockbusters.	我们在报纸评论版上习以为常的情绪，基本上不可能出现在宝莱坞影片中。


Even on television, entertainment is subject to rules that don’t apply to news.	即使是电视娱乐节目也要受到不适用于新闻的规则的约束。


A fashion show, for example, would be rigorously reviewed to ensure that no non-conformist attire that shocks the sensibilities of Indian culture’s custodians makes it on screen.	比如，时尚秀必须进行严格审核，以确保不会有触及印度文化卫道士敏感神经的另类服饰。


Fashion channels have been taken off the air for showing models in revealing clothes.	时尚频道因为播放衣着暴露的模特的镜头而被禁播。


India’s film industry has long suffered stoically under the pressure of the paternalistic censors.	印度电影业长期在一言堂式的审查者的压力下痛不欲生。


But it has never had it so bad as it does under the current chief censor, Pahlaj Nihalani.	但情况从未向现任首席审查官帕拉伊·尼哈拉尼（Pahlaj Nihalani）治下那么严重。


To get an idea of the scale of the Nihalani-led review board’s moral policing, a kiss in the James Bond movie Spectre was deemed too long (and therefore trimmed).	尼哈拉尼领导下的审查委员会对于道德监督严格到什么程度呢？ 007系列电影《幽灵党》的吻戏被认为太长（因此被剪掉）。


A sex scene in the superhero hit Deadpool got the same treatment.	超级英雄片《死侍》的床戏命运亦然。


Nihalani went so far as to declare that engaging in a long kiss “means you want to do sex in your house with your door open, and show to people the way you are doing sex.”	尼哈拉尼甚至宣称接吻时间太长“表示你想在家开门做爱，并且向人们直播怎么做。


Needless to say, that comment attracted considerable derision.	”不消说，这一评论令人哭笑不得。


Gay themes have also met with Nihalani’s disapproval, with the film Aligarh, about the persecution of a gay professor, receiving an “A” rating, which restricted the film to adults, despite the lack of nudity or sex.	同性恋题材也被尼哈拉尼所拒绝，描写一位同性恋教授遭遇迫害的影片《阿里加尔》（Aligarh）被评为“A”级，即仅限成年人观看，尽管它并没有裸戏和床戏。


The board demanded that the word “lesbian” be removed from another film.	委员会要求另一部影片删除“女同性恋”一词。


Last month, Nihalni’s reign of cultural terror came to a head, with the review board demanding 72 cuts from the big-budget Bollywood film Udta Punjab (“Flying Punjab”), a gritty tale centered on the drug culture that is prevalent in the eponymous northwestern Indian state.	上个月，尼哈拉尼的文化恐怖统治达到了登峰造极的程度，审核委员会要求耗费巨资的宝莱坞影片《飞翔的旁遮普》（Udta Punjab）剪掉72处镜头。 《飞翔的旁遮普》讲述了一个坚忍不拔的故事，背景是同名的印度西北部邦无处不在的毒品文化。


That decision was, it seems, entirely political.	看起来，这一决定完全是政治性的。


Punjab is controlled by India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party, in alliance with a powerful regional party, the Shiromani Akali Dal, neither of which was pleased by the film’s portrayal of the state they rule.	旁遮普由印度执政党印度人民党联合强大的地区政党锡克教的阿卡利党（Shiromani Akali Dal）控制，两个政党都对影片对它们所治理的邦的描述感到不满。


And, unsurprisingly, the cuts largely targeted scenes and dialogue highlighting the government’s failure to curb – and some politicians’ complicity in promoting – Punjab’s widespread drug abuse.	毫不奇怪，被剪掉的内容大多是强调政府没有遏制——以及一些政客串通“促进”——旁遮普邦普遍存在的滥用毒品的问题的镜头和对话。


To add insult to injury, the censors asked the filmmakers to remove all 94 references to Punjab in the film, including from its title.	雪上加霜的是，审查者还要求制片方删除所有94处提及旁遮普的内容，包括标题。


“All the characters are negative,” Nihalani reportedly said.	“所有的人物都是负面的，”据信尼哈拉尼如是说。


But when he declared that the film would “hurt the whole community,” what he really meant was that it would hurt the BJP and its allies.	但当他宣称该片将“危害全社会”时，他真正的意思是它会危害印度人民党及其盟友。


(Nihalani, a BJP appointee, had made a campaign video for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.)	（尼哈拉尼为印度人民党任命的官员，曾经为总理莫迪制作竞选视频。


The fact that the cuts would have gutted the film – as if Woody Allen were forced to remove Barcelona from Vicky Cristina Barcelona – was apparently irrelevant.	）删减无异于阉割电影这一事实——好比伍迪·艾伦（Woody Allen）被迫把“巴塞罗那”从《午夜巴塞罗那》（Vicky Cristina Barcelona）中删除——显然不是重点。


But Nihalani failed to reckon with Udta Punjab’s feisty producer, Anurag Kashyap, a luminary of Bollywood’s avant-garde.	但尼哈拉尼没有考虑到《飞翔的旁遮普》的制片人是宝莱坞前卫艺术教父、富有战斗精神的阿努拉格·卡施亚普（Anurag Kashyap）。


Kashyap launched a Twitter attack on Nihalani, calling him a “dictatorial man” and an “oligarch” – and not stopping there.	卡施亚普在Twitter上发动了对尼哈拉尼的攻击，称他是“独裁者”和“政治寡头”——而这只是开始。


“I always wondered what it felt like to live in North Korea,” Kashyap tweeted.	“我一直想知道，生活在朝鲜是什么感觉，”卡施亚普发tweet说。


“Now I don’t even need to catch a plane.”	“现在我都不需要赶飞机就知道了。 ”


Kashyap continued his resistance offline, taking the almost unprecedented step of suing the review board – and winning.	卡施亚普在线下也进行了抵制活动，采取了几乎前所未有的起诉审核委员会的行动——并且胜诉。


The Mumbai High Court ordered that the film be shown with only one scene cut.	孟买高等法院裁定该片只需剪掉一个镜头就能上映。


It was promptly released, and has since broken all of India’s box-office records.	该片迅速推进，票房打破了所有印度记录。


The offensive by Kashyap may have fired up an already frustrated film industry, which is united in wanting Nihalani gone.	卡施亚普的反击也许点燃了已经失望透顶的电影业，整个行业联合起来要求尼哈拉尼下台。


Even one of Nihalani’s fellow review-board members, the filmmaker Ashoke Pandit, accused him of undermining the body’s credibility and even of threatening to “Talibanize” the industry.	就连尼哈拉尼的一位审核委员会委员、电影制片人阿肖克·潘迪特（Ashoke Pandit）也指责他破坏委员会的信誉，甚至威胁要将印度电影业“塔利班化”。


But even if Nihalani is ousted, and the review board goes back to its old ways, India will still be a modern democracy engaged in the thoroughly undemocratic practice of limiting freedom of speech, if only in the film industry.	但即便尼哈拉尼下台，审核委员回归老路，印度作为一个现代民主国家，仍将进行完全不民主的限制言论自由的行为，即使只在电影业。


A government-appointed committee recently recommended that the board be confined to certification (or issuing audience ratings), with the power to censor content only in rare circumstances.	一个政府任命的委员会最近建议审核委员会至认定资格（即进行观众评级），只在非常有限的情况下才有权审查内容。


The recommendations should be adopted (though the report’s approval of full bans of films by the board is unacceptable).	该建议应该被采纳（尽管该报告批准审核委员会的完全电影禁令的做法是不可接受的）。


The practice of film censorship is yet another relic of a bygone colonial era, the values of which Indians have too readily internalized.	电影审查行为只是殖民地时期遗留物之一，殖民地遗留物的价值观已经被印度人所内部化。


Nearly seven decades after independence, Indians must recognize that our democracy is mature enough to end censorship.	印度独立已经将近七十年，印度人必须认识到，我们的民主已足够成熟，可以结束审查制度。


Breaking Down India’s Internal Barriers	打破印度的内部障碍


NEW DELHI – Of the many economic reforms crying out for immediate implementation in India, the most obvious is the long-pending Goods and Services Tax.	新德里——印度亟需立即落实的众多经济改革中，最显而易见的是长期悬而未决的商品和服务税。


So why have India’s politicians failed to enact it?	那么印度政治家为何却没能通过？


The need for a GST is virtually indisputable.	商品和服务税的必要性无需辩驳。


As the billionaire Steve Forbes recently wrote in his eponymous magazine, “Outsiders are amazed that much of India resembles pre-revolutionary France, with many internal barriers standing in the way of economic efficiency and growth.”	正像亿万富翁史蒂夫·福布斯最近在同名杂志上所述的那样，“外人惊讶于印度与大革命前的法国何其相似，重重叠叠的国内关卡阻挡了经济效率和进步。


He then pointed out that a GST is critical to enabling India, like the United States, to reap the benefits of its continent-size domestic market, as it would replace the “stifling hodgepodge of local taxes” that amount to “internal tariffs on the movement of goods.”	”他紧接着指出统一的商品服务税能够焕发印度的活力，让印度像美国一样获得庞大国内市场所带来的好处，并取代实际相当于“国内商品流动关税”的“令人窒息的地方税大杂烩”。


Indeed, India has a bewildering array of subnational taxes.	事实上，印度有着令人眼花缭乱的地方税体系。


For example, taxes on commerce among India’s states require checkpoints at their borders, with long queues of trucks awaiting clearance.	例如，印度的州商业税需要在各州边界设立关卡，等候通关的卡车排成长队。


As a result, shipping freight across the country is a logistical nightmare.	结果导致国内货运费用成为物流噩梦。


Sales taxes vary, and are augmented by “octroi” taxes on cross-border shipments of goods destined for local consumption.	销售税五花八门，跨越各州边境的国内消费品还要缴纳“货物入市税”。


Whereas the European Union is 28 sovereign countries with one common market, the Indian Union is one sovereign country with 29 separate markets.	欧盟是28个主权国家组成的共同市场，而印度却是拥有29个独立市场的单一主权国家。


Making matters worse, India’s multiple taxes and tax authorities create more opportunities for corruption and tax-avoidance.	更糟的是，印度的多税种和多部门为腐败和避税创造了更多机会。


A national GST would eliminate these problems.	全国范围内的商品和服务税能解决这些问题。


For businesses, particularly those that have to transport goods across the country, the GST would be a boon.	对企业，尤其是有国内货运需求的企业来讲，商品和服务税将给他们带来实惠。


It is estimated that the GST’s passage would add 1-2% to India’s GDP instantly.	有人估算商品和服务税的通过能使印度GDP瞬间增加1-2%。


So what is holding up the GST’s implementation?	那么究竟是什么阻碍商品和服务税的落实？


In short, politics.	简言之，政治。


The GST was first introduced seven years ago by the Congress-led government in power at the time.	商品服务税最早可以追溯到7年前执政的由国会领导的政府。


But it was delayed because of the fierce opposition of Narendra Modi, then-Chief Minister of the western state of Gujarat.	但因为时任西部省份古吉拉特邦首席部长莫迪的激烈反对而被迫延迟通过。


When Modi became Prime Minister last year, he and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suddenly recognized the virtues of a GST, embracing the bill with great fanfare, but also with important amendments.	莫迪去年就任总理时，他和他的印度人民党（BJP）突然认识到了商品和服务税的好处，开始大张旗鼓地宣传这项法案，但也不乏重要的修订之处。


Pandering to BJP governments in Gujarat and Maharashtra, which claimed that, as “producer” states, they would lose out from a GST, Modi revised the bill to grant states the right to levy an additional 1% tax on outgoing goods.	古吉拉特邦和马哈拉施特拉邦人民党政府声称作为印度主要的“制造业省份”，商品和服务税将使他们蒙受损失。 为了迎合这两邦政府，莫迪修改了GST法案，允许各邦对出境货物额外征收1%的流动税。


And yet the bill already provides for states to be compensated for five years for any loss of revenue from the application of GST.	但其实该法案已经规定5年内对因商品和服务税实施造成的任何收入损失进行补偿。


The change – a breathtaking act of petty politics – controverts the very spirit and intent of the GST.	上述改变是狭隘政治的惊人之举，有悖于商品和服务税自身的精神和意图。


If states were levying individual taxes on top of the GST, the national market would again be divided and distorted, with checkpoints returning on state frontiers to assess the value of the goods on their way out.	如果各州在商品服务税以外单独征税，将会再次分裂和扭曲国内市场，导致各州边界再次设立检查站对运出货物的价值进行评估。


In short, India would be back to square one.	简言之，印度将会退回原点。


It gets worse.	但还有更糟的情况。


In another act of political appeasement, the BJP government has introduced a number of exemptions.	为了政治绥靖，人民党政府已出台多项豁免规则。


By omitting alcohol, tobacco, petroleum products, and electricity – which together account for more than a quarter of all tax receipts – the government is significantly diluting the GST’s potential impact on the national economy.	政府规定对占税收总额四分之一强的酒精、烟草、石油产品和电力免征商品服务税，严重稀释了这一税种对国家经济的潜在影响。


Moreover, the BJP government has increased so many other taxes (which it simply should have eliminated) that the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy estimates that the GST would have to amount to as much as 27% to prevent revenue loss.	此外，人民党政府已经增加了其他很多税种（这些税种其实都应该取消），以致国家公共财政与政策研究所估计商品与服务税需要达到27%才能防止收入减少。


Far from reviving the economy, such a rate would cripple it.	如此之高的税率不但不能恢复经济，反而只能削弱它。


Overall, the current government’s gutted version of the GST would, by some estimates, have no measurable effect on GDP at all.	总体而言，有人估计目前政府被毁掉的商品服务税版本根本不会对GDP造成重要影响。


The Congress party, now in opposition, refuses to support the adoption of the GST bill until the more effective version is restored.	目前在野的国大党在更有效的版本重新启用前，拒绝支持商品服务税法案的通过。


It wants to abolish the extra 1% tax levied by the states and bring all kinds of goods within the GST’s ambit.	它想废除各州额外征收的1%税赋，将所有物品纳入商品和服务税的征收范畴。


In order to reduce incentives for avoidance and thus augment revenues, Congress also wants to cap the GST at 18%.	为降低逃税冲动并以此增加收入，国会还想将税率控制在18%以下。