The CGIAR centers have been able to continue exchanges of genetic resources, but the process is now much more complicated and demanding that it was before the Seed Treaty came into force.	各国际农业研究磋商小组中心可以继续交换遗传资源，但现在总体过程比种子条约生效前要复杂和苛刻得多。


For the US, the precise impact of the Seed Treaty’s implementation is difficult to determine, not least because the treaty contains wishy-washy, ambiguous phrasing that obscures its meaning and requirements.	种子条约实施对美国的确切影响很难精确估计，尤其因为条约包含了掩盖其含义和规则的空泛、含混的措辞。


What is clear is that the experience of countries that have implemented the treaty has not been particularly positive, unless those countries have a high tolerance for bureaucratic regulatory regimes that stifle innovation and development in the name of lofty aspirations.	显而易见的是，执行条约的国家取得的经验并不十分积极，除非它们高度容忍那些以崇高目标为名压制创新和发展的官僚监管制度。


The Seed Treaty is cut from the same anti-capitalist, anti-science, anti-innovation cloth as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).	种子条约与反资本主义、反科学、反革新的生物多样性公约（CBD）如出一辙。


It also mirrors the flagrantly unscientific, anti-genetic-engineering Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the CBD.	它还令人联想到明目张胆反科学、反遗传工程的生物多样性公约卡塔赫纳生态安全议定书。


And it has much in common with the Nagoya-Kuala Lumpur Supplementary Protocol on Liability and Redress to the Cartagena Protocol – yet another anti-genetic-engineering screed, which accomplishes little except to frighten potential entrepreneurs away from agricultural biotechnology.	此外它与另外一项反遗传工程样板名古屋-吉隆坡关于卡塔赫纳议定书的赔偿责任和补充协议有很多共同之处，该协议除了恐吓潜在创业者远离农业生物技术外几乎起不到其他任何作用。


It is overwrought, confusing, and complex – in short, inimical to innovations that could benefit the world’s poor.	协议规定过度、复杂、混乱——简言之，协议无益于可能为世界穷人带来好处的创新活动。


The Seed Treaty runs counter to science, agricultural development, and intellectual property rights.	种子条约违背了科学、农业发展和知识产权精神。


That, in the policymaking game, is three strikes – and should be an out.	这相当于在决策领域打出一记三振出局的臭球。


The US Senate, which ratified the Seed Treaty, should reconsider, as Article 32 of the treaty allows.	批准种子条约的美国参议院应当重新思考，因为条约第32条恰恰有这样的规定。


Thereafter, the US State Department would notify the treaty’s secretariat, with official withdrawal taking effect a year later.	此后，美国国务院应当通知条约秘书处，并将在一年后实现正式退出。


President-elect Donald Trump, author of The Art of the Deal, has promised Americans that he will put an end to bad ones.	交易艺术一书的作者、当选总统唐纳德·特朗普已经向美国人承诺他将撤销不明智的决策。


Withdrawal from the Seed Treaty would be an auspicious start to making good on that pledge.	从退出种子条约开始兑现承诺将是一个不错的选择。


In Defense of the Jews, Again	再次捍卫犹太人


MADRID – Despite the impression given by massive unity rallies throughout France, the recent attack on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo does not mean that freedom of expression is under any serious threat in Western Europe.	马德里——尽管法国各地大规模团结集会给人留下了相反的印象，但最近针对讽刺杂志《查理周刊》的袭击并不意味着西欧的言论自由正面临任何严重威胁。


Nor does it indicate that Islamic radicalism is somehow about to engulf or transform Western societies.	恐怖袭击也不意味着伊斯兰激进主义即将以某种方式吞噬或改变西方社会。


The threat that it does highlight is a less publicized one: the resurgence of discrimination and violence against Europe’s Jews.	这次事件真正凸显的是一种不为人知的威胁：那就是针对欧洲犹太人的歧视和暴力正在死灰复燃。


Charlie Hebdo – the last vestige of a bawdy and somewhat savage nineteenth-century French tradition of outrageous caricature of religious and political figures – may well be an ideal icon of free expression.	《查理周刊》是19世纪法国讽刺宗教政治人物的低俗野蛮传统所遗留的最后一点痕迹——完全可以被看成言论自由的理想符号。 欧洲人群起捍卫一项重要的原则；


Europeans rose to defend a vital principle; free speech, however vicious, retains a place in any democracy.	无论言论自由是多么可恶，但仍在任何民主国家占有一席之地。


Likewise, “Eurabia,” Bat Ye’Or’s prophecy of Islamic doom for the West, simply is not emerging.	同样，尼罗河儿女所谓的西方难逃被伊斯兰兼并厄运的 “欧拉伯”预言根本就没有成为现实。 没有任何伊斯兰政党在欧洲议会占据席位；


No Islamic parties hold seats in European parliaments; few leading Muslim figures feature in Europe’s major centers of cultural and political power; and European Union institutions are practically bereft of Arabs and Muslims.	举足轻重的穆斯林人物在欧洲主要文化和政治权力中心发挥作用的少之又少； 几乎没有任何阿拉伯人和穆斯林进入到欧盟机构当中。


Efforts by radicals to recruit and indoctrinate young European Muslims do not reflect the inexorable rise of Islamist – or even Islamic – influence in Europe.	极端分子招募引诱年轻欧洲穆斯林并没有反映出伊斯兰主义者——甚至是伊斯兰影响力在欧洲的传播势不可挡。


Rather, they highlight the radicals’ desperation to influence a region where the overwhelming majority of Muslims aspire to integrate into, rather than challenge, the established order.	相反，它体现出极端分子疯狂地妄图影响欧洲地区，生活在这里的绝大多数穆斯林都渴望融入而非挑战现有秩序。


What is truly under threat in Europe is its Jewish community.	欧洲真正受到威胁的是犹太人群体。


In 2006, the French Jew Ilan Halimi was kidnapped and brutally tortured in a cellar for three weeks, resulting in his death.	2006年，法国犹太人宜兰·哈里米被人绑架到地窖并残酷折磨了三个星期，导致其最终丧生的惨剧。


In 2012, three Jewish schoolchildren and a rabbi were gunned down in Toulouse.	2012年，三名犹太学生和一位犹太教士在图卢兹被枪杀。


And last April, a Jewish couple in a Parisian suburb were robbed, because, as the attackers put it, “Jews must have money” (though that did not explain why they then raped the woman).	还有去年4月，一对犹太情侣在巴黎郊区被劫，原因是袭击者认为“犹太人一定非常有钱”（但这并不能解释他们为什么之后强奸了那名妇女）。


A month later, a French jihadist attacked the Jewish museum in Brussels, leaving three dead and one critically wounded.	一个月后，一名法国圣战分子袭击了布鲁塞尔犹太博物馆，造成3人死亡、1人重伤的惨剧。


A few months after that, a mob assaulted a synagogue in Paris.	几个月后，巴黎一间犹太教堂遭到了暴徒袭击。


None of these events sparked anything remotely resembling the public outrage of recent weeks.	上述事件所引发的公愤远没有最近几周那样强烈。


Had the murder of four Jews at a kosher supermarket in Paris, carried out by a confederate of the Charlie Hebdo attackers prior to their capture, occurred in other circumstances, one can assume that it would not have fueled a widespread movement to defend the values of the French Republic.	假设巴黎犹太超市四名犹太人遇害事件（假定肇事者就是被捕之前的《查理周刊》恐怖袭击团伙）发生在其他情况下，我们可以认定它不会引发捍卫法兰西共和国价值观的大规模运动。


Some argue that the surge in anti-Semitic violence in Europe is motivated primarily by the plight of the Palestinians.	有人认为巴勒斯坦困境是造成欧洲反犹暴力大幅增长的主要动机。


But, according to a 2012 poll, more Europeans believe that violence against Jews is fueled by long-standing anti-Semitic attitudes, rather than anti-Israel sentiment.	但是，2012年民意调查显示，更多欧洲人认为长久以来的反犹而非反以情绪助长了针对犹太人的暴力行为。


Radical Islam propagated hatred for Jews long before Zionism, and it will continue to do so after the creation of a Palestinian state.	激进伊斯兰教早在犹太复国运动前就一直在宣扬仇犹主义，而且即使在巴勒斯坦建国以后这种活动也不会停止。


Given this, it is not surprising that the increasing visibility of Islamist extremism has, by capturing the attention of frustrated young Muslim men in Europe and elsewhere, spurred increased violence against Jews.	有鉴于此，伊斯兰极端主义越来越高调（通过吸引欧洲和其他地方穆斯林男青年的注意力）导致针对犹太人的暴力活动愈演愈烈并没有什么值得稀奇。


But the problem runs deeper, giving Jews the impression that they have no future in Europe.	但深层次问题无法解决给犹太人留下的印象是他们在欧洲没有未来。


A recent YouGov poll found that a substantial share of the French and British populations hold anti-Semitic views.	最近一次YouGov调查发现很大一部分英法民众抱有反犹主义观点。


Another poll, conducted by the Center for Research on Prejudice at Warsaw University, showed that, in 2013, some 63% of Poles believed Jews conspire to control the banking system and the world media.	由华沙大学偏见研究中心进行的另外一次调查显示在2013年，大约63%的波兰人相信犹太人合谋控制银行体系和全球媒体。


This has serious implications not just for Jews, but for Europe as a whole.	这个问题不仅对犹太人、而且对整个欧洲造成了严重的影响。


As Hannah Arendt pointed out six decades ago, the rise of anti-Semitism fueled Europe’s descent into totalitarianism.	正如汉娜·阿伦特六十年前曾经指出的那样，反犹主义兴起推动欧洲陷入极权主义。


With right-wing extremist and populist movements gaining traction in many countries, Europe’s political system – and the values that underpin it – is at risk.	随着右翼极端主义和民粹主义运动在众多国家方兴未艾，欧洲的政治制度及其赖以存在的价值观正在遭受威胁。


French Prime Minister Manuel Valls recognizes this danger.	法国总理曼努埃尔·瓦尔斯已经认识到其中的危险性。


In a recent speech at the National Assembly that recalled Emile Zola’s attack on the “blind stupidity” of Jew-hatred almost 120 years ago, he asked: “How can we accept that in France…shouts of “Death to the Jews!” can be heard in our streets?...How can we accept that French people can be murdered because they are Jewish?”	在最近国民议会纪念120年前左拉攻击仇犹情绪“盲目愚昧”的一次演讲中，瓦尔斯质问：“我们怎么能够接受在法国的大街上有人. .


He then warned that the revival of anti-Semitism in France – apparent, for example, in the anxiety over the Holocaust’s inclusion in the French school curriculum – indicates a crisis of democracy.	我们怎么能够接受法国人因其犹太身份而遭到杀戮？ ”之后他警告法国反犹主义（比方说把大屠杀写入法国教科书所引发的担忧）的复兴显示民主已经陷入危机。


But Valls remains the only European politician to have highlighted the danger with the sense of urgency that it merits.	但瓦尔斯仍然是唯一一位强调上述危险已经迫在眉睫的欧洲政治家。


It is time for his counterparts to step up, and doing so should not rule out bold policies, free of any complexes, aimed at influencing Israel’s policy toward Palestine.	其他政治家现在要加快脚步，而且同时不应排除出台旨在影响以色列对巴政策的大胆策略。


At the same time, it is a dangerous fallacy to seek redemption for a problem that is so deeply ingrained in Europe’s history – and in Islam’s – by blaming it on the Israel-Palestine conflict or on young, alienated Muslims.	与此同时，为欧洲——和伊斯兰历史上——根深蒂固的问题寻找解决办法，将其归咎于以巴冲突或受排斥的年轻穆斯林是一个危险的错误。


Europeans must take a good hard look at themselves if they are to avoid falling back into the clutches of fear, hatred, and appalling politics.	如果想要避免再次陷入恐惧、仇恨和骇人听闻的政治魔掌，欧洲人必须认真审视自己的所作所为。


An Ugly Peace for Sudan	不完美的苏丹和平


STANFORD – Well, America is involved at last.	发自斯坦福——美国终于还是出手了。


President Barack Obama has dispatched Senator John Kerry to Sudan with a proposal for peace between the country’s North and South. It’s a giant step toward avoiding the kind of bloodshed that killed more than two million people in Sudan’s previous 20-year North-South civil war, which ended only in 2005 – and is threatening to erupt once again.	奥巴马总统派参议员约翰·克里携一份南北和平方案奔赴苏丹，而此举堪称避免该国重陷血腥冲突的一项重大举措，曾经历时20年的南北内战夺去了超过200万苏丹人的生命，一直到2005年才宣告终结，而如今却似乎又有死灰复燃之势。


In recent months, Obama has stepped up his own involvement and that of senior figures in his administration in support of a peace strategy for Sudan.	近几个月来，奥巴马进一步加大了其本人及属下高级官员对苏丹和平战略的干涉力度。


On his behalf, Kerry has delivered a package of proposals designed to break the logjam that has brought the North and South to a dangerous crossroads.	作为总统代表，克里提出了一揽子解决方案，旨在打破当前南北之间的僵局，把双方从危险的悬崖边拉回来。


We have written a memo that spells out some of the essential elements of what a grand bargain for peace in Sudan could look like.	为此我们草拟了一份备忘录，列出几个在苏丹和平谈判中不可或缺的要素。


If you’re interested in the specifics of a possible peace deal – and in actions that you can take to support it – go to www.sudanactionnow.org.	如果您对这一潜在和平协议的细节感兴趣的话——或是可以用行动来支持它——不妨到www. sudanactionnow.


There is little time to waste.	当前的形势已经迫在眉睫。


On January 9, 2011, the people of Southern Sudan will vote for independence from the North, taking with them up to three-quarters of the country’s known oil reserves and placing millions of civilians in the direct path of war.	居住在苏丹南部的人民将于2011年1月9日公投决定是否脱离北方独立，此举不但会把大概3/4的石油储量划归南方所有，更意味着数百万人将再度面临战乱之苦。


The government in Khartoum (the capital in the North) is led by Omar al-Bashir, whose accomplishments, which include overseeing war crimes during the previous North-South war and engineering the atrocities in Darfur, have brought him arrest warrants for war crimes and genocide from the International Criminal Court.	另一方面，首都喀土穆（位于北部）的苏丹政府现正处于奥马尔·巴希尔的控制之下，这个恶贯满盈者不但策划指挥了南北内战，还一手推动了达尔富尔大屠杀，为此国际刑事法庭已经依据战争罪和种族屠杀罪向他发出了拘捕令。


And yet renewed war in Sudan is not inevitable.	然而苏丹内战的再度爆发并不是无法避免的。


A complex but workable peace can be brokered if all interested parties become more deeply involved.	如果利益各方能够更深入地参与到谈判之中，就能协商达成一份复杂但却可行的和平方案。


The current moment requires robust diplomacy – the kind that can leave a bad taste in your mouth, but that gets the job done.	当前这种情况亟须一种现实主义的外交手腕——就那种让你心里不是滋味，但却能实现目标的外交手段。


We believe that Kerry is a skilled emissary and can help the parties find the compromises necessary for peace.	我们相信克里是位足够老练的特使，定能令事件各方明白妥协的必要性。


Any agreement preventing a return to war would necessarily involve the National Congress Party, representing the North, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, representing the South.	任何避免战争爆发的协议都必然牵涉到代表北方的全国大会党以及代表南方的苏丹人民解放运动。


But it would also involve the United States, whose post-referendum relationship with the two parties will have enormous influence over whether a deal gets done.	此外美国也应当参与其中，因为它在公投后与南北双方的关系对协议能否成功达成至关重要。


We believe that a grand bargain to lay the foundation for lasting peace between the North and South would oblige the parties to:	我们认为，为了给南北双方长久和平打下基础，谈判各方必须做到以下几点：


·        hold the Southern Sudan referendum on time and fully respect and implement the results;	·         苏丹南部的公投如期举行，并完全尊重和执行公投的结果。


·        reach a mutually satisfactory agreement concerning the territory of Abyei, a key disputed border area;	·         就阿卜耶伊这一主要边界争议地区的领土问题达成一个令双方满意的协议。


·        craft a multi-year revenue-sharing arrangement in which the oil wealth of Abyei and key border areas could be divided equitably between the North and South, with a small percentage going to the Arab Misseriya border populations for development purposes;	·         制定一份长期的利润分成协议，确保阿卜耶伊和其他主要边界区域的石油收益在南北之间平等分配，并将小部分收益分配给居住在梅泽里亚（Misseriya）地区的各阿拉伯族部族以促进当地发展。


·        demarcate the uncontested 80% of the border and refer the remaining 20% to binding international arbitration;	·         对于其中80%的无争议边界，可以直接划定，而余下那20%则交由国际仲裁。


·        create serious protections for minority groups, with consideration of joint citizenship for certain populations, backed by significant international consequences for attacks on southerners in the North or northerners in the South.	·         为少数民族提供认真有效的保护，并对特定人群的双重公民身份予以承认，一旦发生南方人在北方遭受袭击或相反的事件，国际社会都要对肇事方进行严厉惩罚。


The US role as the invisible third party to the agreement involves a series of incentives offered to the regime in Khartoum to ensure agreement and implementation of a peace deal.	美国作为协议的幕后第三方，要给喀土穆当局提供一系列激励性因素，以确保和平协议的达成和落实。


In exchange for action on the North-South and Darfur peace efforts, the US would implement a clear, sequenced, and binding path to normalization of relations.	作为支持南北和达尔富尔和平进程的交换条件，美国将推行一个明确，连贯而有约束力的方案以实现两国关系正常化。


This would involve – in order – removal of Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list, exchange of ambassadors, lifting of unilateral sanctions, and support for bilateral and multilateral debt relief, together with other economic measures by international financial institutions.	其中包括——按先后次序来说——把苏丹从支持恐怖主义的国家名单中剔除，互派大使，解除单方面制裁，协助减免双边和多边债务，并与其他国际金融组织的相关经济手段相结合。


Conversely, the US must be prepared to lead international efforts to impose severe consequences on any party that plunges the country back into war.	相反，对试图把苏丹重新拖入战争泥潭的任何一方，美国必须第一个站出来，带领国际力量给于严惩。


Peace and security in Darfur should be an essential benchmark for normalized relations between the US and Sudan.	达尔富尔地区的和平与安全应成为美国与苏丹关系正常化的标志。


The Obama administration should hold firm on this through the coming rounds of negotiation, and should appoint a senior official to help coordinate US policy on Darfur in order to ensure that peace efforts there receive the same level of attention as the North-South efforts.	在新一轮谈判中，奥巴马政府要坚定这一立场，并任命一位高级官员专门协调美国在达尔富尔的政策，确保当地的和平进程与南北双方的和平进程受到同等重视。


What is needed now is political will – and not only in the US – to sustain this diplomacy.	而目前最急需的则是政治决心（不仅仅来自于美国）。


The European Union and Sudan’s neighbors – in particular Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda – will also need to play a robust role.	欧盟以及苏丹各邻国——尤其是埃及，埃塞俄比亚，肯尼亚和乌干达——也需要积极参与。


And China’s diplomacy in Sudan, where it has invested massively in developing the country’s oil resources, will be a test of whether or not it intends to be a responsible stakeholder in Africa and the wider world.	而由于中国在苏丹进行了大规模投资以开发当地的石油资源，因此它所持的外交立场将成为一块试金石，考验该国是否真的希望在非洲以及全世界范围内成为一个负责任的利益相关者。


Ensuring that governments work toward peace is where you come in. Keep the pressure on them.	确保政府为实现和平而努力是您力所能及的事。


Support the peace process. Your voice can prevent a war.	给政府施加压力，支持和平进程，您的呼声能制止一场战争。


Not money. Just our voices.	无需枪支，不用金钱，只要我们的呼声就足够了。


The way to peace in Sudan is not simple, but it is achievable.	实现苏丹和平的道路曲折，但前途是光明的。


There are hard choices to be made.	其中必须做出许多艰难的抉择。


We can make those choices now, or we can persuade ourselves that peace is too hard or too complex, and then look on resignedly from the sidelines as hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women, and children needlessly die.	而我们可以选择现在就勇敢地面对，或是懦弱地告诉自己和平是高不可攀，遥不可及的，然后冷漠地站在一旁围观，任由成百上千的无辜男女和儿童白白丧命。


It’s up to us.	而这一切，都取决于我们如何选择。


A Partnership for Peace in the Hindu Kush	兴都库什山脉的和平伙伴关系


Khyber Pass, Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan -- Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Afghan President Hamid Karzai never had a shared border strategy.	巴基斯坦西北边境省份，开伯尔山口－巴基斯坦总统佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫和阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊从来没有共享的边境战略。


But, standing at Michni Post, the highest point of the Khyber Pass, staring down at the thousands of trucks and buses buzzing through Afghanistan into Pakistan under the shadows of the Hindu Kush, the answer is obvious: controlling the Afghan-Pakistan border requires a counterinsurgency policy that looks at Afghanistan and Pakistan together. Pakistan’s new government has a great opportunity to make this change.	但是，当你站在开伯尔山口的至高点米奇尼哨所，注视着下面在兴都库什山脉的阴影中轰轰作响的成千的从阿富汗驶入巴基斯坦的卡车和公共汽车的时候，问题的答案是显而易见的：控制阿富汗－巴基斯坦边境需要一个同时关注阿富汗和巴基斯坦的反游击战和破坏的政策。 　　巴基斯坦的新政府非常有机会来做出这样的改变。


In order to cut off the Taliban and al-Qaeda’s recruitment and supplies, both countries should fight the militants in tandem.	为了切断塔利班和基地组织的人员征募和物资供给，两个国家应该合力打击武装分子。


That means, first, improving security training for the border forces, starting with Pakistan’s Frontier Corps, the 50,000-man combat force along the 1,600-mile Afghan border.	这意味着，首先，从巴基斯坦驻扎在阿富汗1,600英里边境的有50,000人的战斗部队开始，提高边境部队的安全保卫训练。


These “sons of the soil” are in bad shape.	这些“大地之子”健康状况不佳。


They receive no more than two dollars a day to patrol the area, which ranges from 25,000-foot-high mountains to barren deserts.	他们巡逻从25,000英尺高的山脉到光秃秃的沙漠地区的收入每天不到两美元。


They also fight with old weapons.	. 他们也不得不用老旧的武器战斗。


As one senior commander told me, “the Taliban are better equipped and have more fire power.”	正如一位高级指挥官告诉我的那样，“塔利班的武器装备更好并且火力更足。


They have no air mobility, and worse, no rapid reaction force to support them.	”他们没有空中武装力量，更糟的是，没有快速反应部队来支援他们。


Two Frontier battalions have been under siege at Ladha Fort in South Waziristan for the past few months.	两个位于南瓦齐里斯坦省拉哈（Ladha）堡垒的边境军营在过去的几个月里不断的遭到袭击。


Security along the border can run on parallel tracks.	对边境沿线的护卫可以按照平行的轨道进行。


Major General Muhammad Alam Khattak, the Frontier Corps’ Inspector General, made a suggestion to me: “Take our Frontier Corps. Train them somewhere and bring them back.”	边境军队的监察长默罕默德·阿兰·卡塔克（Muhammad Alam Khattak）少将向我建议说，“把我们的边境部队带走，在一个地方训练他们然后再把他们带回来。


Afghanistan should do just that.	”阿富汗也应该作同样的事情。


Through NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Afghan National Army training program, it should rotate the Frontier Corps battalions with their Pashtun brothers one at a time.	通过北约的国际安全援助部队(ISAF)阿富汗国民军培训项目，阿富汗应该可以使边境部队和他们的普什图兄弟同时联动起来。


Additional resources provided by Pakistan for proper equipment and force buildup – including the creation of a Frontier Corps Rapid Reaction Force – should be committed so that Frontier Corps soldiers become the counterinsurgency partners in Pakistan that Afghanistan needs. Second, reconciliation with the insurgents should begin by inducing defections.	巴基斯坦为适当的装备和军队集结停供的额外支援－包括一支边境军团快速反应部队的建立－应当保证，这样在巴基斯坦的边境部队士兵就可以成为阿富汗需要的反游击战和破坏的伙伴。 　　其次，和叛乱分子的和解应以诱导他们叛变开始。


This was recommended by a senior US military commander, who said that “60% of insurgent activity could be curbed by reconciliation.”	一位美军高级指挥官推荐这个策略，他说“60%的叛乱行动可以通过和解来遏止住。


Despite overwhelming support for this process, methods to do so are absent.	”尽管人们对这个过程有压倒性的支持，但是却没有实现它的方法。


In Afghanistan’s Helmand Province, 2,000 Taliban fighters were rounded up and vetted by ISAF forces, only to be abandoned after the initiative was not supported by Afghanistan’s central government.	在阿富汗的赫尔曼德（Helmand）省，2,000名塔利班武装分子被国际安全援助部队包围并接受审查，他们只有建议没有得到阿富汗中央政府支持的情况下才被放弃。


In Khost, dozens of former Taliban members from the Tribal Areas defected, promising to lay down their arms in exchange for – only to be given nothing.	在霍斯特，许多来自部族地区的塔利班成员叛变，他们承诺无条件地放下手中的武器。


In both cases, the defecting insurgents said the same thing: they could recruit dozens more; they just need incentives.	在这两种情况中，叛变的武装人员都说了同样的事情：他们可以招募更多的人； 他们需要的仅仅是诱导因素。


A regional reconciliation program targeting mid- and lower-tier Taliban and al-Qaeda commanders should be developed and implemented by Pakistan and Afghanistan. Third, the drug lords should be arrested and detained.	巴基斯坦和阿富汗应该发展和执行一个针对中低层塔利班和基地组织指挥官的区域和解项目。 　　第三，毒枭应被逮捕和拘留。


As one senior Afghan government official said, “If you can’t remove a corrupt judge, how can you deal with the Taliban?”	正如一位阿富汗政府官员说的那样，“如果你不能清除一个腐败的法官，你怎么能够对付塔利班呢？


There are a hundred top drug lords in Afghanistan.	”在阿富汗有一百个顶级毒枭。


Everyone knows who they are. Yet none has been arrested.	每个人都知道他们是谁，但是他们中没有一个人被捕。


Not doing so, due to fear of backlash, only enhances their power.	因为担心不利反应而不这样做只会增强他们的势力。


And allowing them to continue to control the smuggling routes creates a ripple effect that bankrolls corruption of provincial officials and the Afghan National Police, which in turn feeds the insurgency.	而且允许他们继续控制走私路线引发了省级官员和阿富汗国家警察资金腐败的连锁反应，这回过头来又滋长了叛乱。


Finally, reform the madrassa system.	最后，改革宗教学校系统。


Not all madrassas are hotbeds of terrorist training.	不是所有的宗教学校都是恐怖分子训练的温床。


The problem is that Afghan religious students must go to Pakistan for any religious education after 19 or 20 years of age.	但是问题是，在19或20岁后，对任何宗教教育而言，阿富汗的宗教学生就必须去巴基斯坦进行。


They are then quickly pressured to become “bad Taliban” through money, propaganda, and pressure from Pakistani mullahs.	然后他们迅速被通过钱，宣传以及巴基斯坦毛拉的压力逼迫成为“坏塔利班”。


To address this problem, Afghan Education Minister Hanif Atmar – perhaps the most reform-minded member of the government – is seeking to build 34 new madrassas (his goal is 2,000) in Afghanistan for higher learning.	为了解决这个问题，阿富汗教育部长哈尼夫·阿特马尔－可能是最具改革头脑的政府成员－正在寻求在阿富汗建立34所新的用于高等教育的宗教学校（他的目标是2,000所）。


His proposal, which aims to reform the curriculum to include Islamic studies, gender studies, computer science, and English, should receive overwhelming support.	，其针对课程改革以使其包括伊斯兰研究，性别研究，计算机科学以及英语的建议，应该会赢得巨大的支持。


With fewer students from Afghanistan going to Pakistan, Pakistan could turn its attention to the country’s own madrassas and to the mullahs who convert students into suicide bombers.	随着从阿富汗进入巴基斯坦学生的减少，巴基斯坦可以把它的注意力集中到自己的宗教学校和将学生转变成自杀炸弹的毛拉上。


The curriculum for both countries, based on Minister Atmar’s proposal, should be coordinated.	根据阿特马尔部长的建议，两个国家的课程应该协同。


Madrassas that meet these curriculum standards should be registered, supported, and encouraged. Only an effective Afghan-Pakistan partnership can begin to control the insurgency in the border area.	符合这些课程标准的宗教学校应该注册，得到支持以及鼓励。 　　只有一个有效的阿富汗－巴基斯坦伙伴关系才能开始控制边境地区的叛乱。


The war in Afghanistan, and destabilization in Pakistan, will not end without it.	没有这一点，在阿富汗的战争以及巴基斯坦的动荡都不会结束。


A Path through Europe’s Minefield	欧洲雷区的安全小道


LONDON – Earlier this week, a group of almost 100 prominent Europeans delivered an open letter to the leaders of all 17 eurozone countries.	伦敦——本周早些时候，近100位欧洲名流向欧元区所有17个成员国领导人发出了一封集体公开信。


The letter said, in so many words, what the leaders of Europe now appear to have understood: they cannot go on “kicking the can down the road.”	信中直接了当地说出了欧洲领导人似乎已经心知肚明的道理：不能再继续使用“拖字诀”了。


And, just as importantly, they now understand that it is not enough to ensure that governments can finance their debt at reasonable interest rates; they must also address the weakness of Europe’s banking system.	同样重要的是，他们还明白了，确保政府能够以合理利率发债是不够的，还必须提振欧洲疲软的银行体系。


Indeed, Europe’s banking and sovereign-debt problems are mutually self-reinforcing.	事实上，欧洲银行问题和主权债务问题是相辅相成的。


The decline in government bond prices has exposed the banks’ undercapitalization, while the prospect that governments will have to finance banks’ recapitalization has driven up risk premiums on government bonds.	政府债券价格的下跌暴露出银行的资本不足问题，而政府不得不为银行资本重组提供资金的前景又推高了政府债券的风险溢价。


Facing the prospect of having to raise additional capital at a time when their shares are selling at a fraction of book value, banks have a powerful incentive to reduce their balance sheets by withdrawing credit lines and shrinking their loan portfolios.	如今，银行股价格还不到账面价值，欲在此时筹集新的资本会让银行产生用削减信贷额度、缩小贷款业务量的办法让资产负债表缩水的激励。


Europe’s leaders are now contemplating what to do, and their next move will have fateful consequences, either calming the markets or driving them to new extremes.	欧洲领导人正在思考应对措施，他们的下一步动作将决定欧洲的命运——要么让市场恢复平静，要么把市场推向新的极端。


All agree that Greece needs an orderly restructuring, because a disorderly default could cause a eurozone meltdown.	所有人都同意希腊需要有序重组，因为无序违约可能让欧元区分崩离析。


But, when it comes to the banks, I am afraid that the eurozone’s leaders are contemplating some inappropriate steps.	但是，当事情牵涉到银行时，我怀疑欧元区领导人正在考虑实施一些不适当的手段。


Specifically, they are talking about recapitalizing the banking system, rather than guaranteeing it.	具体而言，他们大谈对银行体系进行资本重组的问题，而不准备向银行提供担保。


And they want to do it on a country-by-country basis, rather than on the basis of the eurozone as a whole.	此外，他们准备在国家层面，而不是在整个欧元区层面做这件事。


There is a good reason for this: Germany does not want to pay for recapitalizing French banks.	这本无可厚非：德国人不愿意为法国银行的资本重组买单。


But, while Chancellor Angela Merkel is justified in insisting on this, it is driving her in the wrong direction.	但是，德国总理默克尔固有千般理由坚持作如是观，却免不了因此走上错误的道路。


Let me stake out more precisely the narrow path that would allow Europe to pass through this minefield.	我来详细地解释一下究竟怎样做才能为欧洲在密集雷区中辟出一条蹊径。


The banking system needs to be guaranteed first, and recapitalized later.	银行体系首先需要的是担保，然后才是资本重组。


Governments cannot afford to recapitalize the banks now; it would leave them with insufficient funds to deal with the sovereign-debt problem.	政府无法承担现在就进行资本重组的成本，提供不了足够的资金应对主权债务问题。


It will cost much less to recapitalize the banks after the crisis has abated and both government bonds and bank shares have returned to more normal levels.	待到危机过去、政府债券和银行股价格回复常规水平之后再对银行进行资本重组成本要小得多。


Governments can, however, provide a credible guarantee, given their power to tax.	不过，政府有收税的权力，因此可以提供可信的担保。


A new, legally binding agreement – not a change to the Lisbon Treaty (which would encounter too many hurdles), but a new agreement – will be needed for the eurozone to mobilize that power, and such an accord will take time to negotiate and ratify.	欧元区需要一个新的具有法律约束力的协议——并非试图改变里斯本条约，这样障碍太多——动员这一权力，而新条约的协商和批准需要时间。


But, in the meantime, governments can call upon the European Central Bank, which the eurozone member states already fully guarantee on a pro rata basis.	但是，在此期间，各国政府可以要求欧洲央行有所动作——欧洲央行正是由欧元区成员国按比例提供完全担保的。


In exchange for a guarantee, the eurozone’s major banks would have to agree to abide by the ECB’s instructions.	作为获得担保的交换条件，欧元区主要银行必须同意接受欧洲央行的指导。


This is a radical step, but a necessary one under the circumstances.	这一要求有些激进，但在如今的环境中不得不为。


Acting at the behest of the member states, the ECB has sufficient powers of persuasion: it could close its discount window to the banks, and the governments could seize institutions that refuse to cooperate.	欧洲央行听从成员国指令，将获得足够的说服力：它可以对银行关闭贴现窗口，各国政府还可以制裁拒绝合作的金融机构。


The ECB would then instruct the banks to maintain their credit lines and loan portfolios while strictly monitoring the risks they take for their own account.	然后，由欧洲央行要求银行维持信贷额度和贷款业务量，同时严格监控银行自有账户所承担的风险。


This would remove one of the two main driving forces of the current market turmoil.	这样就能消除导致当前市场动荡的两大动力中的一个。


The ECB could deal with the other driving force, the lack of financing for sovereign debt, by lowering its discount rate, encouraging distressed governments to issue treasury bills, and encouraging the banks to subscribe (an idea I owe to Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa).	欧洲央行还能对付另一大动力，即主权债务融资不足的问题，办法是降低贴现率，鼓励受困政府发行国债，同时鼓励银行认购（这个想法源自托马索·帕多阿-斯基奥帕（Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa））。


The T-bills could be sold to the ECB at any time, making them tantamount to cash; but, as long as they yield more than deposits with the ECB, the banks would find it advantageous to hold them.	这些国债可以在任何时候卖给欧洲央行，换取等额现金； 但是，只要它们的收益率高于欧洲央行存款，银行持有国债就是有利可图的。


Governments could meet their financing needs within agreed limits at very low cost during this emergency period, and the ECB would not violate Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty.	在紧急状况期间，政府可以以极低成本融得不多于协议限额的资金，而欧洲央行也不会违反里斯本条约第123条。


These measures would be sufficient to calm markets and bring the acute phase of the crisis to an end.	这些措施足以安抚市场，让危机走出紧急期。


Recapitalization of the banks should wait until then; only the holes created by restructuring the Greek debt would have to be filled immediately.	此时再进行银行资本重组也不迟； 只有希腊债务重组所造成的漏洞需要立刻填补。


In conformity with Germany’s demand, the additional capital would come first from the market and then from individual governments – and from the European Financial Stability Facility only as a last resort, thereby preserving the EFSF’s firepower.	按照德国的要求，追加的资本首先来自市场，然后来自各国政府，而欧洲金融稳定基金将在最后出场，因此不会浪费手中的弹药。


A new agreement for the eurozone, negotiated in a calmer atmosphere, should not only codify the practices established during the emergency, but also lay the groundwork for an economic-growth strategy.	在较平稳���境下协商达成的新欧元区协议不仅可以将紧急时期行为法制化，而且可以作为经济增长战略的基础。


During the emergency period, fiscal retrenchment and austerity are unavoidable; but, in the longer term, the debt burden will become unsustainable without growth – and so will the European Union itself.	在紧急时期，财政节省和紧缩是不可避免的； 但从长期看，债务负担的可持续性问题，甚至欧盟本身的可持续性问题，都只有通过增长才能解决。


A Peace Agenda for Global Development	全球发展的和平日程


MONROVIA, LIBERIA – This week, the 27 members of the High-level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda gather in Monrovia, Liberia, to advise United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.	利比里亚蒙罗维亚—本周，2015年后发展日程高级别小组的27名成员将齐聚利比里亚蒙罗维亚，为联合国秘书长潘基文献策。


At the meeting, the Panel will establish a “bold yet practical” vision for joint action on sustainable development.	会上，该小组将成立“大胆而现实”的可持续发展联合行动愿景。


While these discussions – hosted by Liberian President and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and British Prime Minister David Cameron – take place, the nearby Sahel and the Great Lakes region continue to be plagued by violence and conflict.	这场讨论由利比里亚总统、诺贝尔和平奖获得者瑟利夫、印度尼西亚总统苏西洛和英国首相卡梅伦主持，会议期间，附近的塞舌尔和大湖地区却仍受着暴力和冲突的困扰。


Indeed, large-scale displacement of people and unspeakable human suffering are occurring in many African countries (not to mention in Syria and elsewhere), threatening to reverse the continent’s unprecedented economic progress during the last decade.	事实上，大规模的人民流离失所和深重的人道灾难正在许多非洲国家上演（更不用说叙利亚和其他地方了），威胁着非洲大陆过去十年来前所未有的经济进步过程。


The Panel (of which I am a member) must seize the opportunity presented by the Monrovia meeting to contribute to a global development agenda that addresses the vicious cycle of conflict and poverty that hampers economic activity and undermines human well-being.	该小组（我也是成员之一）必须抓住蒙罗维亚会议的机会，拿出一份全球发展日程，纠正妨碍经济活动、破坏人类福祉的冲突和贫困的恶性循环。


For more than a decade, the Millennium Development Goals, which expire in two years, have provided the framework for international development cooperation, with a focus on combating poverty worldwide.	十多年来，联合国千年发展目标（将于两年后到期）为国际发展合作提供了框架，中心点是战胜全球平困。


In developing a new, comprehensive follow-up agenda, global leaders should recognize that, although the MDGs have enabled millions of people worldwide to escape illiteracy, disease, and hunger, their overall impact has been inadequate, particularly in fragile, conflict-ridden countries.	在开发新的全面赶超日程时，全球领导者必须认识到，千年发展目标已经让全世界千百万人脱离了文盲、疾病和饥饿，千年发展目标的影响还未充分显现，特别是在四分五裂的、保守冲突困扰的国家。


World Bank statistics show that no conflict-affected low-income country has achieved a single MDG, reflecting the framework’s failure to address problems caused by organized violence and insecurity effectively.	世界银行数据表明，无冲突的低收入国家已经达到了单一千年发展目标，这表明这一安排不能有效解决由有组织暴力和缺乏安全带来的问题。


That is why the post-2015 agenda should be centered on peace, security, and freedom from fear.	这就是为何2015年后日程必须以让和平、安全和自由从恐惧中脱颖而出为核心的原因。


It should aim to make justice and prosperity a reality for everyone.	它应该把目标放在把公正和繁荣带给每一个人上。


And it should reflect the understanding that development is impossible without peace, just as peace is impossible without development – and that lasting peace and sustainable development are impossible without respect for human rights and the rule of law.	它应该反映这样一种观念：没有和平就没有发展，没有发展就没有和平，而没有对人权和法治精神的尊重，持续和平和可持续发展都是空谈。


Furthermore, as the Monrovia meeting’s theme, “National Building Blocks for Sustained Prosperity,” suggests, post-2015 global development initiatives should emphasize support for national efforts to achieve strong, stable, long-term prosperity.	此外，蒙罗维亚会议的主题“持续繁荣的国家建设基础”指出，2015年后全球发展项目应该强调对国家措施的支持，以实现坚挺、稳定、长期的繁荣。


Strategies that would help countries to overcome domestic insecurity and conflict, transform their economies, and, ultimately, meet their potential include strengthening governance institutions and the rule of law, ensuring multi-stakeholder participation, and guaranteeing that all citizens have equal access to justice.	有助于各国克服国内不安全和冲突、实现经济转型以及充分开发其潜力的战略包括加强治理制度和法治精神、确保多方参与、以及保证所有公民能够平等地获得公正。


International support for such efforts would mean giving African leaders and stakeholders the opportunity – and the responsibility – to eliminate underdevelopment and boost prosperity.	对这方面努力的国际支持意味着给予非洲领导人和利益相关者战胜落后、刺激繁荣的机会和责任。


Moreover, while poverty eradication will remain a paramount concern after 2015, the focus must shift from national averages to local disparities.	此外，在消除贫困仍是2015年后关注要点之一的同时，中心点必须从国民平均水平转移到地方差异上来。


Measures must move beyond overall social needs to bolster progress in productive job-creating and income-generating sectors.	衡量指标必须超越总体社会需求，刺激生产性就业创造和收入形成的部门进步。


And strong efforts must be made in conflict-affected countries to promote reconciliation and prevent the revival of violence.	受冲突困扰的国家必须花大力气促进和解，防止暴力死灰复燃。


Given Liberia’s recent success in post-conflict reconstruction and human development, following a 14-year civil war, it is a fitting setting for the Panel’s deliberations.	最近，利比里亚在后冲突时代重建和人权发展方面取得了成功（此前该国经历了14年的内战），因此是发展日程高级别小组会议的理想举办地。


Since 2003, domestic vision and commitment, together with international support, have enabled Liberia to hold democratic elections, reintroduce some essential public services, reestablish a public-finance management system, and make progress in addressing endemic corruption, rebuilding public institutions, and reconstructing national infrastructure.	2003年以来，国内愿景和承诺与国际支持一起，让利比里亚得以举行了民主选举，重新建设了基本公共服务，重新建立了公共财政管理体系，并在纠正地方腐败、重建公共机构、振兴国家基础设施等方面取得了进步。


The Panel should view Liberia’s ongoing efforts to secure peace, maintain stability, and initiate economic and social transformation as a blueprint for successful post-conflict transition.	该小组应该将利比里亚确保和平、维持稳定和引导经济和社会转型的持续努力作为成功后冲突时代转型的样本。


Other inspiring models can be found in Rwanda, Mozambique, and Sierra Leone.	其他启发性模式还有卢旺达、莫桑比克和塞拉利昂。


The Panel is committed to creating an ambitious, coherent, and practical proposal for a sustainable global development agenda.	该小组将致力于形成大胆、明确而可行的可持续发展日程草案。


The process will be open, inclusive, and transparent, and will be informed by the opinions and experiences of experts and stakeholders representing young people, women, the elderly, and the disabled, as well as legislative, academic, and inter-governmental actors.	整个过程将是开放、包容、透明的，将参考代表年轻人、妇女、老人、残疾人以及法律界、学界和跨政府行动者的专家和相关利益者的观点和经验。


The Panel will also take advantage of extensive online and offline efforts to engage with people worldwide and gain insight into the future that they envision.	该小组还会利用全面的在线和离线措施和全世界人民展开互动，吸取关于他们眼中的未来的洞见。


Their perspectives will enrich efforts to develop an agenda that addresses their priorities.	他们的观点将拓宽小组视野，有助于开发解决他们眼中的当务之急的日程。


In a world roiled by conflict, development efforts will always fall short.	在保守冲突困扰的世界中，发展努力总是不足的。


The post-2015 global development agenda must take a comprehensive approach, combining poverty-reduction measures with peace-building initiatives and strategies for economic transformation.	2015年后全球发展日程必须以全面的视角与消除贫困措施相结合，并辅之以有助于建设和平的经济转型方案和政策。


In this way, global leaders can begin to lay the foundations for prosperity, justice, and sustainable development worldwide.	如此，全球领导人方能为世界繁荣、公正和可持续发展奠定基础。


Future generations are counting on it.	我们的子孙后代对此自会有公论。


The Asian Paradox	亚洲悖论


SEOUL – Given that the 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum account for some 54% of global GDP and about 44% of world trade, the agenda for this month’s APEC summit should be drawing much global attention.	首尔—亚太经济合作（Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation，APEC）论坛的21个成员国占了全球GDP的54%和世界贸易的44%，因此本月APEC峰会的日程将引起全球关注。


Yet the only issue in which anyone seems interested is whether or not Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet on the sidelines, and, if they do, whether a substantive discussion to ease bilateral tensions will take place.	但所有人都兴趣盎然的唯一一个问题是中国国家主席习近平和日本首相安倍晋三是否会在场边举行会晤，如果会晤的话，是否会有缓解双边紧张态势的实质性讨论。


Of course, this is not altogether unreasonable, given the two countries’ importance in shaping East Asia’s future.	当然，这并不完全是毫无道理的，因为两国对于决定东亚的未来至关重要。


Indeed, the uncertainty about whether two of APEC’s key leaders will even speak to each other highlights the grim reality of Asian international relations today.	事实上，APEC两大关键领导人是否会有交流的不确定性彰显出当今亚洲国际关系的严峻现实。


The supposed “Asian century” is being thwarted by a paradox: deep economic interdependence has done nothing to alleviate strategic mistrust.	所谓的“亚洲世纪”饱受一个悖论的困扰：深刻的经济相互依存完全不能减轻战略不信任。


Given the recent deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations – a decline that accelerated in 2012, when Japan purchased the disputed Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands in Chinese) from their private owner to prevent Japanese nationalists from taking control of them – the mere fact that Abe will attend the summit is a major step.	最近，中日关系出现了恶化——这一趋势在日本从其私人所有者手中购买钓鱼岛（日本称尖阁列岛）以防止日本民族主义者控制该群岛后有所加剧——安倍出席峰会已经算得上是重大一步。


A meeting between Abe and Xi – their first since either came to power – would offer concrete grounds for hope.	安倍晋三和习近平的悔悟——两人上台后的第一次——将给人们带来更大的希望。


The Japanese government has made significant diplomatic efforts to orchestrate a meeting, with former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda visiting Beijing in July to try to ease tensions.	日本政府付出了很大的外交努力安排悔悟，前首相福田康夫于7月访问北京以缓和紧张关系。


According to some media reports, in order to secure China’s agreement to participate in a meeting during the APEC summit, Abe even agreed to acknowledge that Japan’s claim to the Senkaku Islands is disputed.	据一些媒体的报道，为了保证中国同意在APEC峰会期间参加悔悟，安倍甚至愿意承认日本对钓鱼岛的主张是有争议的。


Given that such a move would imply that China’s claim to the islands may have some legitimacy, Abe’s possible concession on this point is no trivial matter; it could even mean that he will agree with China to restore the status quo ante.	如此动作意味着中国对钓鱼岛的主张或许具有一些合法性，因此绝不是无关紧要的问题； 这甚至可能意味着安倍同意与中国一起恢复过去的状态。


In that case, one hopes that Xi will follow Deng Xiaoping’s counsel and allow the issue to be “shelved for some time” so that the “wiser” next generation can “find a solution acceptable to all.”	果真如此的话，人们希望习近平能效仿邓小平的告诫，把问题“搁置一段时间”，让“更聪明”的下一代能够“找到各方都能接受的办法。 ”


That now seems to be a realistic possibility.	如今，这看起来颇有现实可能性。


Indeed, lately Xi seems to have softened his tone, if not necessarily his diplomatic line.	事实上，最近习近平的口风有所软化，外交路线也许也会如此。


For example, he allowed Li Xiaolin, the daughter of a former Chinese president, to meet with Abe, with whom she watched a performance by a visiting Chinese dance troupe in Tokyo.	比如，他允许中国前国家主席之女李小林会晤安倍。 李小林和安倍晋三一起在东京观看了中国舞蹈团表演。


And Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang shook hands with Abe at the recent Asia-Europe Meeting in Milan.	中国国务院总理李克强也在最近的米兰亚欧会议上和安倍握了手。


One reason for Abe and Xi’s newfound flexibility may be domestic political shifts in both countries, which have created a more equal balance between conservative, nationalist groups and more internationally-oriented business interests.	安倍晋三和习近平最近表现出灵活姿态，这或许反映了两国国内政局的变化，保守派、民族主义阵营和更加国际导向的商业利益之间形成了更平等的平衡。


With both leaders having spent the last two years overcoming domestic opponents and consolidating their power, they may have gained confidence in their ability to compromise.	过去两年中，两位领导人都在克服国内反对派和巩固权力，如今他们或许已经有了形成妥协的信心。


In Japan, Abe has satisfied his conservative supporters with cabinet resolutions to allow for expanded self-defense.	在日本，安倍晋三内阁同意扩大自卫权，以此满足保守派支持者。


Despite domestic opposition to Japan’s new security doctrine, no politically influential group was able to organize an effective challenge to Abe’s approach.	尽管日本国内对其新安全思想仍有诸多反对，但已没有有影响力的政治集团能够对安倍的方针形成有效挑战。


Now, as Japan’s economic recovery stalls, the country’s business sector seems to be pressuring Abe’s government to work harder to mitigate the impact of its deteriorating relationship with China.	如今，随着日本经济复苏势头停滞，日本商界开始向安倍政府施压要求更加努力地缓和与中国关系的恶化。


According to a Chinese government report, in the first half of 2014, Japanese direct investment in China was almost 50% lower than during the same period last year – a clear sign that Japanese business leaders fear for the future in Japan’s second largest market.	中国政府报告称，2014年上半年日本对华直接投资比去年同期降低了近50%——这清楚地表明日本商界领袖十分担心日本第二大市场的未来。


Meanwhile, in China, Xi has gained considerable confidence through his massive anti-corruption campaign, with the punishment of top military officers indicating that he has solidified his control over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).	与此同时，在中国，习近平通过其大规模反腐运动而获得了很大信心，对顶级军官的处罚表明他已经掌握了解放军控制权。


As a result, Xi may believe that he now has more space to address the country’s economic slowdown, including by lessening the damage wrought by weakening ties with Japan.	因此，习近平也许认为现在有了更多空间处理中国经济减速的问题，包括减轻因与日本交恶而导致的伤害。


If this assessment is accurate, the obvious next question is how much further Abe and Xi can move toward détente, thereby appeasing their business sectors, without losing the backing of nationalists, who tend to view the bilateral relationship as a zero-sum game.	如果这一分析正确，显然下一个问题是安倍晋三和习近平是否能朝着改善的方向走多远，取悦商界又不失去民族主义者的支持。 后者视中日双边关系为零和博弈。


For Abe, the choice is whether to tone down his nationalist rhetoric and moderate his position on contentious historical issues.	对安倍晋三来说，他面临的选择是是否降温民族主义口风、软化在争议历史问题上的立场。


This would include halting visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine (which honors, among others, 14 Class A war criminals who were executed after World War II) and abandoning revisionism regarding the Korean “comfort women” who were forced to provide sexual services to the Japanese Imperial Army.	这将包括停止前往有争议的靖国神社（供奉14名二战后被处决的甲级战犯）、放弃对被迫为日本皇军提供性服务的韩国“慰安妇”的修正主义立场。


How Abe decides is likely to depend on his confidence in his political position.	安倍会如何决定也许取决于他对其政治处境的信心。


Similarly, if Xi remains confident enough in his control of the PLA and truly follows China’s official policy of “peaceful development,” he will be able to take the kind of prudent approach that Deng advocated.	类似地，如果习近平对其控制解放军和名符其实地追求中国官方的“和平发展”政策有足够信心，他可以采取邓小平所提出的审慎方针。


This would entail recognizing and trying to assuage the fears that China’s rise is causing among its neighbors, as Otto von Bismarck did after German unification in 1871.	这将包括认清和尝试缓解中国崛起所引起的邻国恐慌（如俾斯麦在1871年德国统一后所做的那样）。


Observers might then read his recent efforts to improve relations with Japan, not to mention Vietnam, as a genuine strategic shift, rather than a temporary tactical adjustment.	观察者将把他最近缓和对日本（还有越南）关系的措施视为真正的战略变化，而不仅是临时性战术调整。


In this uncertain context, the APEC summit could shed much-needed light on the intentions of Abe and Xi, thereby providing crucial insight into the trajectory of Sino-Japanese relations – and thus the future of East Asia.	在这一不确定的环境下，APEC峰会将为人们提供急需的信息洞察安���晋三和习近平的意图，从而一窥中日关系乃至东亚未来走向的关键线索。


A People’s Economics	普罗大众的经济学


NEW HAVEN – We are in the midst of a boom in popular economics: books, articles, blogs, public lectures, all followed closely by the general public.	发自纽黑文——我们正置身于一场通俗经济学的大潮之中：一切关于经济学的书籍、文章，博客和演讲无不受到普罗大众的热烈追捧。


I recently participated in a panel discussion of this phenomenon at the American Economic Association annual meeting in Denver.	在最近召开的美国经济学会丹佛年会中，笔者恰好参与了一场关于该现象的小组讨论。


An apparent paradox emerged from the discussion: the boom in popular economics comes at a time when the general public seems to have lost faith in professional economists, because almost all of us failed to predict, or even warn of, the current economic crisis, the biggest since the Great Depression.	而小组成员们都意识到了某种矛盾现象：通俗经济学的兴起恰恰是与人们对专业经济学家的不信任同时出现的，因为绝大多数经济学家都未能预见（甚至仅仅是警觉）这场自大萧条以来最大规模的经济危机。


So, why is the public buying more books by professional economists?	既然如此，大众又为何大肆购买由专业经济学家撰写的书籍呢？


The most interesting explanation I heard was that economics has become more interesting, because it no longer seems to be a finished and closed discipline.	对此我听到的最有趣的解释是经济学之所以显得更有趣，是因为它似乎不再是一门完美和封闭的学科。


It is no fun to read a book or article that says that economic forecasting is best left to computer models that you, the general reader, would need a Ph.D. to understand.	如果有一本书告诉你说经济预测最好交由电脑模型去完成，而作为一个普通读者，你必须拥有一个博士学位才能搞懂这些模型，那该是多么沉闷乏味啊。


And, in truth, the public is right: while there is a somewhat scientific basis for these models, they can go spectacularly wrong.	但事实上，公众是对的：虽然这些模型都或多或少地有科学依据支撑，但它们却依然铸成大错。


Sometimes we need to turn off autopilot and think for ourselves, and when a crisis occurs, use our best human intellect.	可见有时我们最好关掉自动导航仪并动动自己的脑子，尤其是当危机降临时启用一下自身完美的人类智慧。


The panelists all said, in one way or another, that popular economics facilitates an exchange between specialized economists and the broader public – a dialogue that has never been more important.	而有一点得到了在座所有讨论者的同意：通俗经济学已经成为了专业经济学家与普罗大众进行交流的媒介——而这种交流正体现出前所未有的重要性。


After all, most economists did not see this crisis coming in part because they had removed themselves from what real-world people were doing and thinking.	毕竟大多数经济学家之所以未能预见危机的来临，就是因为他们已经与真实世界中人们的想法和行动完全脱节了。


Successful popular economics involves the reader or listener, in some sense, as a collaborator.	成功的通俗经济学实践将读者或者听众视为一个参与者。


That, of course, means that economists must be willing to include new and original theories that are not yet received doctrine among professional specialists.	很显然，这意味着经济学家必须乐于接纳某些还未被专家学者们普遍认可的原创性理论。


Until recently, many professional economists would be reluctant to write a popular book.	直到最近，许多专业经济学家依然不愿提笔去写一本通俗读物。


Certainly, it would not be viewed favorably in considering a candidate for tenure or a promotion.	毕竟这么一本东西显然无法成为获取教职或晋升的可靠依据。


Since it does not include equations or statistical tables, they would argue, it is not serious work that is worthy of scholarly attention.	估计那些评审委员会的人会认为，由于书中并未包含任何方程或统计图表，因此也不能算是一项有学术价值的严谨工作。


Worse than that, at least until recently, a committee evaluating an economist would likely think that writing a popular economics book that does not repeat the received wisdom of the discipline might even be professionally unethical.	更糟的是，直到最近，一个负责评价经济学家的委员会甚至认为撰写一本与经典理论有不同观点的通俗经济学读物在专业上是不道德的。


Imagine how the medical profession would view one of its members who recommended to the general public some therapy that had not yet passed scrutiny from the appropriate authorities.	当然，试想如果你是一个医学界专业人士，你会如何看待那些将某种未经权威部门认可的疗法向大众推广的同僚？


Medical professionals know how often seemingly promising new therapies turn out, after careful study, not to work, or even to be harmful.	无数看似前途无量的新疗法都在严谨研究中被证明无效甚至有害，这是行内共识。


There is a rigorous process of scholarly review of proposed new therapies, associated with professional journals that uphold high research standards.	医学界对新疗法的有一套严谨慎密的学术评价机制，并与高水准的专业刊物紧密结合。


Circumventing that process and promoting new, untested ideas to the general public is unprofessional.	任何绕过该程序向公众推广未经测试的新理念的做法都是违反职业道德的。


In the decades prior to the current financial crisis, economists gradually came to view themselves and their profession in the same way, encouraged by research trends.	而在这场危机爆发前的几十年间，经济学家们也用以上述标准来看待自己和本专业的，而研究趋势的发展也促进了这一点。


For example, after 1960, when the University of Chicago started creating a Univac computer tape that contained systematic information about millions of stock prices, a great deal of scientific research on the properties of stock prices was taken as confirming the “efficient markets hypothesis.”	比如说，当芝加哥大学在1960年发明了一个可以系统容纳数百万只股票的价格信息的通用计算机磁带之后，一大批科学研究开始利用该信息来证实“有效市场假说”。


The competitive forces that underlie stock exchanges were seen to force all securities prices to their true fundamental values.	科学家们发现某种存在于证券交易所中的竞争性力量似乎迫使所有股票价格向它们的真实价值靠拢。


All trading schemes not based on this hypothesis were labeled as either misguided or outright frauds.	于是所有不以此假说为基础的交易计划都被视为愚蠢或是居心不良。


Science had triumphed over stock-market punditry – or so it seemed.	科学在股票市场理论上大获全胜——至少看上去是这样。


The financial crisis delivered a fatal blow to that overconfidence in scientific economics.	但随之而来的金融危机给那些过度自信的科学经济学家一个响亮的耳光。


It is not just that the profession didn’t forecast the crisis. Their models, taken literally, sometimes suggested that a crisis of this magnitude couldn’t happen.	问题不仅仅是专家们未能预测危机，而是他们那些模型有时甚至推算这么一场大灾是不可能发生的。


One way to interpret this is that the economics profession was not fully accounting for the economy’s human element, an element that can’t be reduced to mathematical analysis.	对此的一个解释就是经济学界并未充分理解经济中人的要素——一种不能被简化为数学分析的要素。


The relatively few professional economists who warned of the current crisis were people, it seems, who not only read the scholarly economics literature, but also brought into play more personal judgment: intuitive comparisons with past historical episodes; conclusions about speculative trading, price bubbles, and the stability of confidence; evaluations of the moral purposes of economic actors; and impressions that complacency had set in, lulling watchdogs to sleep.	而那一小部分对本次危机发出警告的专业经济学家则是这么一批人：他们不但饱读经济学文献，也不忘进行个人判断：凭直觉将当前状况与某些历史场景相比较； 对投机买卖，价格泡沫和市场信心下结论；


These were judgments made by economists who were familiar with our business leadership – their inspirations, beliefs, subterfuges, and rationalizations.	这些判断来自于那些熟知商界人士老底——他们那些诡计、信条，花招和辩词——的经济学家。


Their views could never be submitted to a scholarly journal and evaluated the way a new medical procedure is.	这些学者的观点永远不可能在学术刊物上发表，或者受到像新医学疗法那样的严谨待遇。


There is no established scientific procedure that could prove their validity.	根本没有任何已有的科学程序能证明这些观点的有效性。


Of course, economics is in many ways a science, and the work of our scholars and their computer models really does matter.	当然，经济学在许多方面都确实是一门科学，而这些学者及其计算机程序的贡献也不可抹杀。


But, as the economist Edwin R. A. Seligman put it in 1889, “Economics is a social science, i.e., it is an ethical and therefore an historical science….It is not a natural science, and therefore not an exact or purely abstract science.”	但正如经济学家埃德温·R·A·塞利格曼在1889年所说的那样：“经济学是一门社会科学，换言之，它关注的是伦理（译者注：正如不同的社会发展形态产生不同的经济伦理）并因此是一门研究事物在某段时期内发展状况的科学……它不属于自然科学，因此也不是一门严谨或者纯粹的抽象科学。 ”


To me, and no doubt to the other panelists, part of the process of pursuing the inexact aspects of economics is speaking honestly to the broader public, looking them in the eye, learning from them, reading the emails they send, and then searching one’s soul to decide whether one’s favored theory is really close to the truth.	对笔者本人以及在座的其他论者来说，对经济学不确定一面的探索就是要与公众真诚地展开对话，深入他们的内心，从他们身上学习，阅读他们发来的邮件，并扪心自问：我最推崇的理论是否真的接近现实？


A Phantom Recovery?	幽灵式的复苏?


One camp argued that the recession in the United States would be V-shaped – short and shallow. It would last only eight months, like the two previous recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001, and the world would decouple from the US contraction.	纽约——


Others, including me, argued that, given the excesses of private-sector leverage (in households, financial institutions, and corporate firms), this would be a U-shaped recession – long and deep.	一种观点认为，此次危机是V型——时间短，程度浅。 时间大概仅仅持续8个月。


It would last about 24 months, and the world would not decouple from the US contraction.	就像1990-1991年和2001年发生的两次危机那样。 世界经济不会受到美国衰退的影响。


Today, 20 months into the US recession – a recession that became global in the summer of 2008 with a massive re-coupling – the V-shaped decoupling view is out the window. This is the worst US and global recession in 60 years.	另一种观点认为，这当然也包括我的看法，考虑到私营经济（例如家庭，金融机构和公司等）的金融杠杆过度使用，此次危机可能是U型——这意味这持续的时间长而且程度很深。


If the US recession were – as most likely - to be over at the end of the year, as is likely, it will have been three times as long and about fives times as deep – in term of the cumulative decline in output – as the previous two.	时间的跨度是24个月。 美国的衰退也将拖累整个世界的经济。


Today’s consensus among economists is that the recession is already over, that the US and global economy will rapidly return to growth, and that there is no risk of a relapse.	如今，在美国危机发生的20个月之后，从 2008年夏天开始，全球经济形势变得不可收拾，V型的观点不攻自破。 这也是美国乃至全球60年以来最糟糕的一次经济危机。


Unfortunately, this new consensus could be as wrong now as the defenders of the V-shaped scenario were for the past three years.	如果美国危机（很有可能在）在今年年底结束，那么和前两次的危机相比，此次危机持续的时间有3倍之长，如果以衰退的产值来计算的话，衰退的程度有5倍之深。


Data from the US – rising unemployment, falling household consumption, still declining industrial production, and a weak housing market – suggest that America’s recession is not over yet.	如今在经济界似乎有这么一种共识，大家都认为衰退已经过去。


A similar analysis of many other advanced economies suggests that, as in the US, the bottom is quite close but it has not yet been reached.	美国乃至全球的经济将迅速复苏，不会再出现反复。


Most emerging economies may be returning to growth, but they are performing well below their potential.	不幸的是，这种共识同样是错误的，就像过去三年那种V型的观点那样。


Moreover, for a number of reasons, growth in the advanced economies is likely to remain anemic and well below trend for at least a couple of years.	美国目前已经公布的数据——这包括上升的失业率，下降的居民家庭消费，工业产品的产量仍然在下降，房市依然疲软——显示美国的衰退目前还没有结束。 在其他一些工业国家的经济研究结果显示，目前美国的经济已经接近谷底，但还没有到最低点。


The first reason is likely to create a long-term drag on growth: households need to deleverage and save more, which will constrain consumption for years.	原因之一是：居民家庭需要减少透支，增加储蓄，这就会对拉动消费产生影响，从而会拖经济的后腿。


Second, the financial system – both banks and non-bank institutions – is severely damaged.	第二就是金融体系——这包括银行和其他金融机构——几近摧毁。


Lack of robust credit growth will hamper private consumption and investment spending.	没有活跃信贷的支持，私营经济的消费和投资就是无本之源。


Third, the corporate sector faces a glut of capacity, and a weak recovery of profitability is likely if growth is anemic and deflationary pressures still persist.	第三，公司产品滞销，经济疲软导致利润缩水，通缩的压力仍然存在。


As a result, businesses are not likely to increase capital spending.	投资自然不会好到那里去。


Fourth, the re-leveraging of the public sector through large fiscal deficits and debt accumulation risks crowding out a recovery in private-sector spending.	第四，政府以财政赤字和债务为代价拉动私营经济的复苏，不过这也不是长久之计。


The effects of the policy stimulus, moreover, will fizzle out by early next year, requiring greater private demand to support continued growth.	到明年年初就会弹尽粮绝。 这就需要更大的内需来支持持续的增长。


Domestic private demand, especially consumption, is now weak or falling in over-spending countries (the US, the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, etc.), while not increasing fast enough in over-saving countries (China, Asia, Germany, Japan, etc.) to compensate for the reduction in these countries’ net exports.	私人家庭的需求，特别是在消费方面，在过渡透支的国家（美英，西班牙，爱尔兰，澳大利亚，新西兰等）依然持续下滑，相当疲软。 对那些储蓄较高的国家（中国，亚洲，德国和日本等）来说，增长的速度也没有想象的那么快，没法弥补出口下滑带来的影响。


Thus, there is a global slackening of aggregate demand relative to the glut of supply capacity, which will impede a robust global economic recovery.	全球性萧条加上产能过剩阻碍了经济的复苏。


There are also now two reasons to fear a double-dip recession.	如何避免第二次危机的发生，我们还有两个因素需要考虑。


First, the exit strategy from monetary and fiscal easing could be botched, because policymakers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.	第一，政府继续加大财政和金融的投资的问题，不管做与不做，都不会有什么好结果。


If they take their fiscal deficits (and a potential monetization of these deficits) seriously and raise taxes, reduce spending, and mop up excess liquidity, they could undermine the already weak recovery.	如果为了消除巨额赤��而增税，减少支出，消除过度的信贷，这对微弱的复苏来说就是雪上加霜。


But if they maintain large budget deficits and continue to monetize them, at some point – after the current deflationary forces become more subdued – bond markets will revolt.	如果政府继续加大投入，财政赤字就会不断增加。 这么一来，债券市场就会出问题了。


At this point, inflationary expectations will increase, long-term government bond yields will rise, and the recovery will be crowded out.	通胀就会变得不可避免。 长期政府债券利率上升，复苏就无从谈起。


A second reason to fear a double-dip recession concerns the fact that oil, energy, and food prices may be rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant, and could be driven higher by the wall of liquidity chasing assets, as well as by speculative demand.	第二个问题是，在资金流向固定资产和投机的双重推动下，原油，能源和食品的价格持续上涨。


Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for the global economy, as it created a major income shock for the US, Europe, Japan, China, India, and other oil-importing economies.	去年每桶145美元的油价对世界经济有很大的冲击，特别是对美国，欧洲，日本，中国，印度和其他石油进口国来说。


The global economy, barely rising from its knees, could not withstand the contractionary shock if similar speculative forces were to drive oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel.	对目前极其脆弱的经济来说，如果由于投机使得原油达到100美元一桶，那无疑是雪上加霜的打击。


So the end of this severe global recession will be closer at the end of this year than it is now, the recovery will be anemic rather than robust in advanced economies, and there is a rising risk of a double-dip recession.	如此说来，全球萧条目前还没有结束，预计可能到今年年底有所好转。 对于发达国家而言，复苏的速度是缓慢的，而且危机很有可能再次发生。


The recent market rallies in stocks, commodities, and credit may have gotten ahead of the improvement in the real economy.	目前，股市，商品市场和信贷市场的复苏可能比实体经济好一些。


If so, a correction cannot be too far behind.	如果这样的话，全球经济的复苏就为期不远了。


A Pivot to the People	以人民为轴心


PRINCETON – On February 1, the United Nations Security Council met to consider the Arab League’s proposal to end the violence in Syria.	发自普林斯顿——联合国安理会在2月1日召开会议，共同审议阿拉伯联盟要求制止叙利亚暴力行动的提案。


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton represented the United States.	其中美国方面的与会代表是国务卿希拉里。


Midway through her remarks, she began speaking not to the Syrian ambassador, who was in the room, or even the Syrian government, but directly to the Syrian people.	在发言进行到一半的时候，她绕开在场的叙利亚大使甚至是叙利亚政府，开始直接向叙利亚人民喊话。


She said that change in Syria would require Syrians of every faith and ethnicity to work together, protecting and respecting the rights of minorities.	她说发生在叙利亚的这场变革需要所有不同宗教信仰和民族的叙利亚人齐心协力，共同维护和尊重少数群体的权利


Addressing those minorities, she continued: “We do hear your fears, and we do honor your aspirations.	谈到这些少数群体时，她继续说：“我们听说了你们的恐惧和遭遇，更向你们的理想致以敬意。


Do not let the current regime exploit them to extend this crisis.”	不要让现政权借此将危机扩大化”。


She told Syria’s business, military, and other leaders that they must recognize that their futures lie with the state, not with the regime.	希拉里还提醒叙利亚商界，军队以及其他领域的大佬们，他们的未来取决于这个国家，而不是某个政权。


“Syria belongs to its 23 million citizens, not to one man or his family.”	“叙利亚属于2300万叙利亚人民，而不是某个领导人及其家族。 ”


Speaking directly to citizens – seeing a country’s people, as well as its government – is not just a rhetorical device.	直接向某个国家的民众喊话——不但与该国政府对话，还与其民众交流——可不仅仅是某种辩论手段。


While many foreign-policy pundits have focused on the US “pivot to Asia,” Clinton has also executed a less-publicized, but no less important, pivot to the people.	当许多外交研究专家都在关注美国的“亚洲轴心”策略之时，希拉里同时也启动了一个曝光较少但重要性丝毫不减的“人民轴心”策略。


She has introduced policies, programs, and institutional reforms designed to support government-to-society and society-to-society diplomacy, alongside traditional government-to-government relations.	在实施传统政府间外交的同时，她还引入了一系列鼓励政府-社会以及社会间外交的政策，项目以及机构改革。


These initiatives do not get headlines, but they will gradually transform much of American foreign policy.	这些动议并未得到媒体的大肆报道，却会逐渐令许多美国外交政策发生转变。


In January, the State Department unveiled a new “super-office” of Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, under the leadership of Under-Secretary Maria Otero.	在今年1月，美国国务院创立了一个专责平民安全，民主和人权的新“超级办公室”，由国务卿助理玛利亚·奥特洛（Maria Otero）领导。


The office brings together agencies that focus on international law enforcement, counter-terrorism, and reconstruction and stabilization with those charged with advancing democracy, human rights, and humanitarian assistance to refugees and migrants.	该办公室把那些主要负责执行国际法，反恐事务和重建与维持稳定的机构与其他用于推动民主，人权和难（移）民人道主义援助的机构全部整合在了一起。


Otero explains the logic behind the initiative in terms of “protecting individuals.”	奥特洛将设立此办公室的背后理念解释为“保护每一个个体”。


That, in turn, requires “not just engaging state to state,” but also working “with players and actors outside of the traditional [channels] we’ve engaged in.”	这反过来意味着“不仅参于国与国之间层面（的互动）”，还要与“我们传统外交渠道之外的参与者们合作。 ”


Viewed from this perspective, countering terrorism includes rebutting terrorist propaganda with a strategic communications campaign.	从这个角度看，反恐就必须涵盖一个驳斥恐怖分子宣传的战略性沟通交流行动。


Countering narco-gang violence includes working with Mexican telecommunications mogul Carlos Slim to develop tools that allow ordinary citizens to report violence anonymously by text message and enable police to map the results.	反贩毒帮派就意味着和墨西���电信大亨卡洛斯·斯利姆（Carlos Slim）合作，开发可以让普通市民匿名短信举报暴力行为并有利于警方定位罪行发生地点的通信手段。


Strengthening democracy means working with the Kenyan developers of a crisis-mapping platform that allows anyone with a cell phone to text information about election fraud or violence to a central monitoring station.	加强民主则要与肯尼亚程序开发者一同建立一个危机地图定位平台，让每一个有手机的民众都可以把选举舞弊行为或暴力事件发送短信报告给中央监控中心。


On a country-by-country basis, pivoting to the people means engaging with Egypt’s bloggers as well as with the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces; convening young entrepreneurs in Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco and connecting them to funding and mentoring; and using social media in Russia to rebut government efforts to smear the US ambassador.	在理解不同国家国情的基础上，“人民轴心”意味着不但要和执政的埃及武装力量最高委员会打交道，还要和民间的博客作者们交流； 召集突尼斯，阿尔及利亚和摩洛哥等地的企业家并给予他们资助和指导；


And, working at an official level, it means co-sponsoring with Brazil the Open Government Partnership, which brings together governments committed to increasing transparency, accountability, and citizen participation, and uses mutual peer pressure and open reporting to hold them to their commitments.	利用俄罗斯的社交媒体去反驳该国政府对美国大使的污蔑之辞。 同时在官方层面还要和巴西一起联合建立“公开政府伙伴关系”，将那些致力于提升透明度，官员负责制和公民参与的政府集合在一起，利用互相监督以及公开报道来促使它们兑现自己的承诺。


Thinking about countries in these comprehensive terms also provides a different strategic perspective.	利用这些综合性条件来分析那些国家也提供了一个截然不同的战略视角。


Clinton has created a raft of new positions at the State Department to spur outreach to different social segments.	希拉里在国务院设立了一系列新职位来鼓励与不同社会群体之间的沟通。


The strategies and programs developed by the Ambassador for Global Women’s Issues, the Special Adviser for Global Youth Issues, the Senior Adviser for Civil Society and Emerging Democracies, the Special Representative for Outreach to Muslim Communities, the Special Representative for Global Partnerships, and the Special Representative for Commercial and Business Affairs often present a very different face of the US.	比如全球妇女事务大使、全球青年事务特别顾问、公民社会及新兴民主国家高级顾问，穆斯林社区沟通特别代表、全球伙伴关系特别代表，还有商业与企业事务特别代表，而这些负责人所各自设立的战略和项目也往往能体现出美国完全不同的一个侧面。


As a result, Clinton has launched an actual strategic dialogue with civil society.	凭借着上述举措，希拉里发起了一场与公民社会的实质性战略对话。


For example, Ambassador Melanne Verveer has attended more than 1,000 events around the world focused on empowering women in areas ranging from peace negotiations to farming.	比如全球妇女事务大使梅兰妮·华威尔（Melanne Verveer）已经在全球范围内参加了超过1000场讨论从和平谈判到农业方面赋予妇女权力的会议。


Similarly, she has launched programs such as mWomen, designed to expand and support mobile technology that increases women’s independence, security, and access to health care and vital knowledge.	同样，她也发起了诸如“mWomen（移动女性）”这样的项目，致力于扩展和支持相关手机技术，使妇女可以借此提升自身独立地位和个人安全，并借手机了解医疗卫生和其他有用知识。


The Office of Global Youth Affairs is building a local youth council at every US embassy around the world, to advise and help to implement embassy programming aimed at local youth.	全球青年事务办公室在所有美国大使馆都建立了一个本地青年委员会，负责提供顾问建议并帮助大使馆实施针对当地青年群体的政策项目。


Much of the programming aimed at youth, women, entrepreneurs, diasporas, technologists, and other social groups is partly funded and conducted by the private sector.	大部分关注青年、妇女、企业家、国外犹太人，技术人员以及其他社会群体的规划都在一定程度上得到私人部门的资助和执行。


Indeed, the Obama administration’s National Security Strategy mentions “public-private partnerships” more than 30 times.	事实上，奥巴马政府出台的《国家安全战略》中就不下30次地提到了“公私伙伴关系”这个词。


Clinton created the Global Partnership Initiative to build as many coalitions, networks, and partnerships as possible with corporations, foundations, NGOs, universities, and other civic organizations.	希拉里创设了全球伙伴关系计划去尽可能多地与企业、基金会、非政府组织，大学以及其他市民组织建立联盟，网络和伙伴关系。


Here, the pivot to the people includes the American people: the dynamism, creativity, and resources of American business and non-profit organizations already engaged around the world.	当然，“人民轴心”也不会将美国人排除在外：美国商界和非营利组织的活力，创造性和资源已经遍布全球。


One privately-funded initiative spearheaded by the State Department will send 300 dogwood trees to Japan this spring, to be planted in the tsunami-affected region and in Tokyo to express the American people’s support for the Japanese people; another will send English teachers throughout Southeast Asia.	一个由国务院牵头，私人资助的项目将于今年春天向日本运输300棵漆树并种植在受海啸影响的地域和东京，以表达美国人民对日本人民的支持和鼓励； 另一个项目则会向东南亚各地派遣美国教师。


After participating in the Friends of Syria conference in Tunis, Clinton convened a town hall meeting with Tunisian youth.	在参加了于突尼斯召开的“叙利亚之友”会议后，希拉里在一个市政厅里与突尼斯青年们进行了谈话。


In her opening remarks, she told her audience that “young people are at the heart of today’s great strategic opportunities and challenges.” Speaking about her lifetime efforts to put “women’s empowerment on the international agenda,” she added, “It’s time to put youth empowerment there as well.”	她在公开演讲中指出“年轻人才是当今宏大战略机遇和挑战的核心”，而在谈到自己倾其一生的“国际议程中的妇女赋权”事业时，她还加了一句：“是时候推动向青年人赋权了。


The implications of all of this activity, which Clinton calls “twenty-first-century statecraft,” are profound.	上述所有行动的含义，也就是希拉里所说的“21世纪治国手段”，是极为深刻的。


From now on, US diplomatic relations with other countries will engage directly with their people and connect them to the American people as much as possible.	从今往后，美国与其他国家的外交关系将包括与别国人民直接接触并尽可能地把他们和美国人民联系起来。


From the perspective of US diplomats, the people of every country stand on the same footing as their government.	从美国外交人员的视角来看，每个国家的人民都跟他们的政府拥有同样重要的地位。


That assumption is the heart of democracy; it is a revolution for diplomacy.	这一假设既是民主的核心； 也是一场外交上的革命。


A Planet for All Apes	属于所有人猿的星球


MELBOURNE – Two new movies released this month – one a science-fiction blockbuster, the other a revealing documentary – raise the issue of our relations with our closest non-human relatives, the great apes. Both dramatize insights and lessons that should not be ignored.	发自墨尔本——本月上线的两部电影——一部是科幻大片，另一部则是纪录片——都涉及到大猩猩这种与我们人类亲缘最近的灵长类动物，并用戏剧手段将某些不应被忽视的感悟和教训昭示在我们面前。


Rupert Wyatt’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes is the seventh film in a series based on Pierre Boule’s 1963 novel, Planet of the Apes, about a world populated by highly intelligent simians. Publicity for the new film claims that it is “the first live-action film in the history of movies to star, and be told from the point of view of, a sentient animal.”	鲁伯特·怀亚特执导的这部《人猿星球的崛起》是根据皮埃尔·布尔1963年发表的小说《人猿星球》——讲述一个居住着高智商类人猿的世界——改编的第七部电影，并将其宣传为“电影史上第一部由有知觉的动物担任主角，并通过其角度来讲述的实景拍摄电影。


Yet no live apes were used.	”但名为实拍，却没有一只真的猩猩参与演出。


Instead, “performance capture technology,” originally invented for the movie Avatar, enables a human actor, Andy Serkis, to play the role of the chimpanzee Caesar, not by dressing in a chimp suit, but by having every gesture and facial movement, even the twitch of an eyebrow, transformed into the movement of an ape.	相反，最早为《阿凡达》所研发“动作捕捉技术”使一个像安迪·瑟金斯这样的人类演员不必再大费周章化妆成大猩猩，单凭做出动作和面部表情就可以扮演剧中的人猿“凯撒”，甚至连他眉毛的一丝抽动都能转换成人猿的相关动作。


When I spoke with Wyatt last month, he acknowledged that there were practical reasons for not using real apes in his movie. But he also understood the ethical issue.	当我上个月和怀亚特交流的时候，他承认不使用真正的大猩猩是有操作上的因素的。


“There are things I didn’t want to be involved in,” he told me.	但他同时也表示理解其中的伦理问题。


“To get apes to do anything you want them to do, you have to dominate them; you have to manipulate them into performing.	“有些东西是我不想触及的，”他对我说，“如果想让大猩猩听你的指挥，那么你就得支配它们；


That’s exploitative.”	你必须操纵它们去表演，这是剥削行为。 ”


Wyatt’s reluctance to join in the exploitation of great apes is understandable, given that the film itself tells the story of apes rising up in response to oppression from dominant humans.	如果考虑到这部电影就是讲述人猿如何起义反对人类压迫的，那么就不难理解怀亚特对这种剥削大猩猩行为的犹豫不决。


The central human character, Will Rodman (played by James Franco), is a scientist seeking a cure for Alzheimer’s disease who experiments on apes.	片中最重要的人类角色威尔·罗德曼（由詹姆斯·弗朗克扮演）是一位用人猿作实验品来寻找老年痴呆症疗法的科学家。


Many films would have glorified a scientist seeking such a goal, and treated the use of animals for that purpose as obviously justified.	许多电影都会对这样的科学家大加赞颂，并认为使用动物为此目标服务的做法理所当然。


Rise of the Planet of the Apes, however, portrays Rodman as, in Franco’s words, “a cold, isolated person.”	而《人猿星球的崛起》这部影片却借弗朗科的台词将罗德曼描绘成一个“冷漠，孤立的人”。


Only when Rodman’s superiors cancel his experiments and he takes home Caesar, an infant chimpanzee, does the scientist begin to care about others.	只有在上级撤销了相关实验，而罗德曼将幼小的大猩猩“凯撒”带回家时这位科学家才开始有了关爱之心。


The plot then takes another turn when Caesar becomes too big and aggressive to live in a human home, and is taken to what is supposed to be a primate sanctuary, but is in fact a dumping ground for unwanted apes, run by humans who display cruelty to the captive animals.	随后情节一转，凯撒不断长大以致无法再住在人类家里，并将被送到一个名为灵长类动物庇护中心，实为由那些虐待动物的人类所经营，专门处理那些失去利用价值的大猩猩的地方。


As far as the treatment of apes is concerned, much of the film is firmly grounded in reality, as a viewing of Project Nim, a documentary based on Elizabeth Hess’s book Nim Chimpsky: The Chimp Who Would be Human, clearly demonstrates.	就大猩猩在片中所受到的待遇来看，这部电影的大部分内容都是来源于现实的，正如《尼姆计划》这部基于伊丽莎白·赫斯的著作《尼姆·猩猩斯基：一只可能是人类的黑猩猩》的记录片所明确表述的那样。


Nim was born in 1973, in a primate research facility in Oklahoma, and was taken from his mother when he was only ten days old, to be used in a sign-language experiment.	片中的黑猩猩尼姆于1973年出生于美国俄克拉荷马州的一个灵长类动物庇护中心，出生10天都就被从它母亲手中夺走用以进行一项手语实验研究。


Reared as part of a human family, he learned to use more than 100 signs from American Sign Language, the language used by Deaf Americans.	在一个人类家庭中养大的尼姆学会了使用100个美式聋哑人手语的手势。


But he was taken from his first human family and handed over to other teachers with whom he did not have the same kind of bond.	但随后它又被从第一个人类家庭移交到其他跟它缺乏养育关系的导师手里。


He grew stronger and more aggressive and began biting his teachers.	结果它逐渐变得强壮和富有侵略性，甚至开始攻击自己的导师。


Herbert Terrace, the Columbia University psychologist who was directing the project, decided to end it and sent Nim back to the primate facility in Oklahoma.	当时主持这个项目的哥伦比亚大学心理学家赫尔伯特·特雷斯决定终止这个项目并将尼姆送回俄克拉荷马的庇护中心。


There, the pampered chimpanzee – who, when asked to sort photos of humans and apes, put his own photo among the humans – was locked in a cage with other chimps.	在那里，这只被人类养大，甚至在分辨人类和人猿图片时把自己的照片归在人类行列的黑猩猩被和其他同类锁在一个笼子里。


He demonstrated his view of that situation by signing “out” to passing humans.	而它则用“我要出去”的手势向路过的人表明自己对那个情况的观感。


Nim suffered various other vicissitudes – and narrowly escaped being infected with hepatitis as part of a medical experiment – until he was eventually released to an animal sanctuary, where he died in 2000.	在最终被释放到一个动物庇护中心前尼姆还遭受了其他不良待遇——甚至差点在一次医学实验中感染肝炎。 它最终在2000年去世。


In 1993, Paola Cavalieri and I founded The Great Ape Project, an organization dedicated to the idea of recognizing that great apes have a moral status befitting their nature as self-aware beings who are capable of thought and have rich and deep emotional lives.	在1993年，帕奥拉·卡瓦利艾里和我联手成立了一名为“大猩猩计划”的组织，致力于使人们认识到大猩猩在本质上都是拥有自我意识的存在，是一种拥有思考能力且感情丰富而深刻的生命，同时也应当拥有与这种本质相适应的道德地位。


At a minimum, they should have the rights to life, liberty, and protection from torture that we grant to all members of our own species, regardless of their intellectual abilities.	至少在最低限度上，无论其智力程度高低，这些大猩猩应当如同我们赋予人类所有成员的那样，拥有生存，自主和免遭折磨的权利。


In the intervening years, that idea has made steady progress.	在组织成立以来的这些年，这一理念取得了长足的进步。


Since 2010, the European Union has essentially banned the use of great apes in experiments.	自2010年起欧盟彻底禁止利用大猩猩进行试验。


Experiments on great apes are now either banned or severely restricted in New Zealand, Australia, and Japan.	同类实验在新西兰，澳大利亚和日本都被彻底禁止或者严加监管。


In the United States, a bipartisan group of members of Congress is supporting legislation to end the use of chimpanzees in invasive research.	在美国，一个跨党派国会议员团体正在推动立法禁止利用黑猩猩进行任何介入性实验。


In Spain in 2008, a parliamentary resolution urged the government to grant some basic legal rights to great apes, but the Spanish government has yet to implement it.	2008年西拔牙通过了一个议会决议敦促政府给于大猩猩某些（人类）基本权利，但政府至今未能实施此决议。


Perhaps the release of these two very different films will lead to a further push to bring great apes within the circle of beings with moral and legal rights.	或者这两部风格不同的影片的上映会进一步推动将大猩猩划归拥有道德和法定权利的生物范围。


In that way, our closest relatives could serve to bridge the moral gulf that we have dug between ourselves and other animals.	这样一来，这种与人类亲缘最近的生命才能帮助弥合我们自身与其他动物的道德鸿沟。


A “Portfolio” Approach to Climate Change	以组合拳方式应对气候变化


The world has tried with little success to cut carbon emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.	全世界在《京都议定书》下为降低碳排放所进行的努力迄今为止成效甚微。


The enormous effort expended to bring the Protocol into force nonetheless indicates how much work will be required to produce the next treaty, due to be agreed in Copenhagen in December 2009.	为了将《议定书》付诸实施而付出的巨大努力表明要达成预定将于2009年12月通过的下一份协定还将需要付出多少艰辛的工作。


Campaigners will push for tough and far-reaching policies, but strong resistance will continue from countries concerned about their economic vitality.	环保组织要求采取更为严厉和影响深远的政策，但是某些国家为了保证它们自身的经济活力而依然会强烈地抵制采取这些政策。


The new negotiations will have one advantage over the earlier efforts, because governments now understand the need for a portfolio of adaptation, mitigation, and research efforts.	新一轮的谈判相比以前所做的努力有一个优势，因为各国政府现在认识到需要在适应、减缓和研究气候变化方面采取组合拳的方式。


New research that my colleagues and I undertook for the Copenhagen Consensus Center in Denmark explores the effectiveness of different responses to this global challenge, but it strongly supports the portfolio approach for several reasons.	我和我的同事为丹麦哥本哈根共识中心进行的新研究探讨了对这场全球挑战所采取的不同应对方式的有效性，但是以下几个原因表明采取组合 拳 方式更为有效。


First, we now know that adaptation will be essential, because temperatures will rise by another 0.6°C by 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are eliminated tomorrow.	首先，我们现在知道适应气候变化非常重要，因为即便我们明天就停止温室气体排放，到2100年全球温度还是会再上升0.


We also know that the impact of climate change will not be evenly distributed across the globe.	6°C。 我们还知道气候变化的影响在全球并不是被平均地表现出来的。


In some areas, modestly warmer temperatures could produce higher crop yields if associated changes in precipitation patterns are not adverse and/or irrigation remains viable.	在某些地区，如果附带产生的降水模式的变化不是负面的以及灌溉依然是可实施的，稍微暖一些的气温能够带来更高的粮食产量。


Even with 0.6°C warming, however, Africa and South Asia will experience almost immediate reductions in the viability of many crops and, eventually, increased vulnerability to infectious disease.	即便温度只上升0. 6°C，非洲和南亚的许多作物还是几乎会立即出现减产，并且最终会更容易受到传染病的侵袭。


These impacts will clearly hit the planet’s worst-off inhabitants hardest: the “bottom billion” who already bear the heaviest burden of disease, poverty, conflict and malnutrition. 	这些影响对于这个星球上生活最贫困的那些人群所带来的打击显然最大，尽管这些“生活在底层的十亿人口”已经承受了疾病、贫困、战争冲突和营养不良等所带来的沉重负担。


Ensuring that adaptive capacity is expanded and exploited where it is most needed is thus a key challenge.	确保适应能力被扩大和开发到最最需要的地方因而成为了我们所面临的一个重要挑战。


Long-term development may give countries more capacity to soften the impact of climate change on the environment and citizens’ health, but in the meantime the planet’s poorest people will need help from the rich.	长期的发展会增强各国减轻气候变化对环境和公民健康所带来的影响的能力，但是与此同时这个星球上最贫困的人口急切需要富裕人口的帮助。


Our analysis investigated, for example, the merits of more targeted policies for the near term: purchasing mosquito-resistant bed nets and oral re-hydration malaria therapy for children in the poorest nations affected by climate change. The goal was to deal aggressively and proactively with some of the marginal health impacts of global warming.	我们的分析探索了更加有针对性的政策在短期内所带来的好处：比如，为遭受气候变化影响的最贫穷国家的儿童购买可抵御蚊虫的蚊帐以及提供口服体液疟疾补充疗法，以便更加积极和前置性地应对全球变暖所带来的某些边缘健康影响。


Benefits would appear almost immediately, but would dissipate over time as economies developed.	这样的工作几乎立即就会产生效益，但是随着经济的发展会慢慢减弱。


Even as development improves conditions, however, reducing carbon emissions would become increasingly important over the longer term as the impact of climate change become more severe.	即便随着经济的发展各方面的条件得到改善，但是随着气候变化造成越来越严重的影响，减少碳排放从长期来看还是变得越来越重要。


Since the effects of climate change have been observed in many areas around the world, thinking about mitigation makes sense everywhere.	鉴于气候变化所产生的影响在全世界的许多地区都能够被观察到，如何减弱气候变化在全球各地都是有意义的。


But we found that mitigation	但是我们发现


The Copenhagen Consensus study also examined a portfolio option of the sort heralded by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.	哥本哈根共识研究还测试了联合国政府间气候变化专业委员会大力宣扬的组合选择方案。


We allocated $50 billion to research into greener technology, so that only $750 billion could be absorbed by the economic cost of adaptation and mitigation.	我们假定为更环保的技术的研究投入500亿美元，因而减弱和适应气候变化的经济成本就只有7500亿美元可供利用。


The gap between the cost of carbon-free and carbon-emitting technology fell, and the taxes designed to mitigate emissions became more effective.	减少碳排放和碳排放技术之间的成本差别就被缩小了，而为减轻排放所设立的税收将变得更加有效。


As a result, the research and development program essentially paid for itself, and total discounted benefits for the $800 billion investment climbed to more than $2.1 trillion. 	其结果是，研究和开发项目，而8000亿美元的投资所产生的总贴现利益超过2. 1万亿美元。


Ensuring that research and development is part of the world’s climate change response portfolio would make mitigation efforts more efficient and significantly enhance their ability to reduce carbon emissions over the next century.	确保研究和开发成为世界应对气候变化的组合应对方式的一部分将使减弱气候变化的影响的努力变得更加有效，并且能够大大增强其在下一世纪减少碳排放的能力。


But these favorable net benefits reflect very conservative assumptions regarding the timing of emissions reductions and when the developing world would “come onboard.”	但是这些有利的净效益反映的只是减排的时间表以及发达国家也“积极地行动起来”的非常保守的预计。


Optimizing investment in the portfolio over time would, for example, increase the discounted benefits by more than a factor of three.	在长时间内优化组合的投资可以把贴现利益提高超过三分之一。


Expected benefits would increase further if we included the chance that potentially higher climate sensitivities would exacerbate damages, even though doing so would require including similarly plausible lower climate sensitivities, which would push in the opposite direction.	如果我们把潜在对气候变化更高的敏感性会加重危害的因素考虑在内，那么预计产生的利益还会更高，尽管这样��们还必须把对气候变化的敏感性变低的同等可能性考虑进去，后者会导致相反的结果。


Fighting climate change can be a sound investment, even though neither mitigation nor adaptation alone will be enough to “solve” the problem.	对抗气候变化是一项很有益的投资，尽管无论是减弱还是适应气候变化本身都不足以“解决”这一难题。


To make a real difference, especially in the near term, the world must combine mitigation and adaptation with increased research and development into carbon-saving and sequestering technology, which in turn requires designing and exploiting market-based incentives.	要真正带来变化，尤其是在近期内，世界在努力减弱和适应气候变化的同时，还必须加大对减少碳排放和碳封存技术的研究和开发力度，而这反过来又要求设计和探索以市场为基础的激励机制。


A Post-Nuclear Euro-Atlantic Security Order	后核武时代的欧洲大西洋安全秩序


WASHINGTON, DC – As we enter 2011, the Euro-Atlantic region is a study in strategic contrasts.	华盛顿——随着2011年的到来，欧洲大西洋地区已经成为战略对比研究的课题。


Over the past 20 years, no geo-political space has undergone as dramatic a transformation as that between the Atlantic and the Urals.	过去20年来，从大西洋到乌拉尔山的地缘政治领域发生了最翻天覆地的变化。


In our lifetimes, we have seen a welcome change from the darkest days of the Cold War, when a devastating conventional and nuclear war in Europe was a real possibility, to a new era in which no state faces this type of existential threat.	我们在有生之年亲眼见证了从冷战最黑暗的时期到一个崭新时代的令人欢欣鼓舞的过渡，冷战时期的欧洲面临着毁灭性常规及核战争的现实威胁，但现在类似这样的现实威胁已经解除。


But, despite these positive developments, the two largest powers in the region – the United States and Russia – each still possesses thousands of nuclear weapons, accounting for more than 90% of the world’s nuclear inventory.	但尽管事情在向好的方向转化，但美国和俄罗斯等两大地区强国仍然掌握着数以千计的核武器，占全世界核武器现有库存的超过90%。


Many of these weapons remain deployed or designed for use within the Euro-Atlantic region.	其中很多武器仍然设计用于或部署在欧洲大西洋区域。


Reduction and elimination of this Cold War-era nuclear infrastructure is the largest piece of unfinished business from that bygone time.	削减并消除冷战核设施是过去那个时代遗留下来的最艰巨的任务。


The continuing existence of large strategic nuclear forces deployed on high alert, and of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in certain NATO states and Russia, creates a risk of accidental, unauthorized, or mistaken use, and of terrorist groups acquiring these assets.	高度戒备的大规模战略核部队及部署在北约某些国家和俄罗斯的战术核武器造成了意外、私自或错误发射核武器的可能性，也有可能导致相关资产落入恐怖份子手中。


So security vigilance is essential.	因此安全警戒就成为重中之重。


To meet this challenge, the three of us – building on the action plan adopted by consensus at the 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference – have endorsed a series of urgent, practical steps towards the long-term goal of a world free of nuclear weapons.	为应对这一挑战，我们三人在2010年不扩散条约审议大会一致通过的行动计划基础上，为实现无核化的长远目标提出了一系列紧急但却实际的步骤。


These include:	其中包括：


·        increasing assured warning and decision times for the launch of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles;	·        延长核弹道导弹发射承诺的预警和决策时间；


·        developing cooperative missile-defense and early-warning systems;	·        合作建立导弹防御和早期预警体系；


·        ensuring the highest possible standards of security for nuclear weapons and materials;	·        确保对核武器及材料执行最高的安全标准；


·        beginning a dialogue on tactical nuclear weapons involving Russia, the US, and NATO;	·        启动俄罗斯、美国和北约参与的战术核武器对话；


·        adopting a process to bring the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty into effect;	·        启动促成《全面禁止核试验条约》生效的程序；


·        developing international and multilateral approaches to manage the risks of fuel production for civilian nuclear power; and	·        制定管理民用核燃料生产风险的国际和多边计划；


·        further reductions in US and Russian nuclear forces.	·        推进美国和俄罗斯的核裁军进程。


As former US Secretary of State George P. Shultz, former US Secretary of Defense William J. Perry, former US Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, and former US Senator Sam Nunn put it in 2007, “Without the bold vision [of a nuclear weapons-free world], the actions will not be perceived as fair or urgent.	正如美国前国务卿乔治·P·舒尔茨、美国前国防部长威廉·J·佩里、美国前国务卿亨利·A·基辛格和美国前参议员山姆·纳恩在2007年所说的那样，“没有[无核世界]的大胆设想，相关措施的公平性和紧迫性就不会得到人们的充分认识。


Without the actions, the vision will not be perceived as realistic or possible.”	而相关措施如果无法到位，无核化设想就不具备现实性及可行性。 ”


Perhaps the most crucial step toward realizing this vision is to redouble our efforts to resolve regional confrontations and conflicts that give rise to new nuclear powers.	也许实现这一目标最关键的步骤是加倍努力解决产生新兴核国家的地区性对抗和冲突。


The great swath of states stretching from North America across Europe through Russia has a vital role to play in stabilizing an increasingly fragmented and stressed international order.	从北美到欧洲再到俄罗斯的大片国家都能在稳定日益分裂紧张的国际秩序方面发挥至关重要的作用。


These states can play this role, however, only if first they transform this geographic space into a genuinely inclusive and vibrant security community.	不过，这些国家只有先把自己所在的地理区域建设成为真正兼容并蓄而充满活力的安全共同体，这样的作用才能够充分发挥。


Failing that (and we are failing today) the Euro-Atlantic states and their organizations will settle for suboptimal – and too often utterly inadequate – responses to the twenty-first century’s security challenges, including the threat of nuclear proliferation.	否则（我们现在就没有做到），欧洲大西洋国家及其组织将在应对二十一世纪的安全挑战，包括核扩散威胁方面退而求其次，而此类折衷方案其力度通常远远不够。


Lately, several national leaders, including the Russian and US presidents and NATO secretary-general, have embraced the idea of a Euro-Atlantic security community, and begun stressing the importance of fashioning a stronger and more inclusive European security order.	近来，俄��斯、美国总统和北约秘书长等几位国家首脑已经开始接纳欧洲大西洋安全共同体的理念，并强调塑造更牢固、更兼容并蓄的欧洲安全秩序是多么重要。


The timing could not be better, as the Euro-Atlantic family has entered a critical period.	上述变化来得正是时候，因为欧洲大西洋这个家庭已经进入了至关重要的时期。


On November 19-20, NATO heads of states approved a new “strategic concept” to guide the organization for the next decade At the same time Russian President D. Medvedev and his NATO counterparts issued a joint statement, endorsing the first Joint Review of 21st Century Common Security Challenges and deciding to resume Threat Missile Defence Cooperation.	11月19－20日，北约国家首脑已经批准了将在今后十年指引组织方向的新的“战略理念”。 与此同时，俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫及其北约伙伴发表联合声明，支持首次联合审核21世纪共同的安全挑战并决定恢复威胁导弹防御合作。


Two weeks later, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) heads of state assembled in Astana, Kazakhstan, to help shape the OSCE’s next stage of development.	两周后，欧洲安全与合作组织（OSCE）的国家首脑齐聚哈萨克斯坦的阿斯塔纳，共同制定欧安组织下一阶段的发展蓝图。


Joint action on nuclear-threat reduction must be a critical element in moving the Euro-Atlantic nations toward a level of stability and strength and allow them to exercise badly needed global leadership.	共同行动缓解核威胁必须成为欧洲大西洋国家走向强大稳定、并行使急需的全球领导权的一项关键要素。


Achieving a genuinely collaborative approach to missile-defense matters will address a common threat and help remove misgivings that are blocking progress toward a common security space.	在导弹防御问题上出台真正的合作计划能应对我们的共同威胁，有助于消除阻碍安全共同体建立的担忧及疑虑。


Similarly, the Euro-Atlantic states can mobilize behind efforts to strengthen the International Atomic Energy Agency’s safeguards system, which ensures the non-diversion of peaceful nuclear programs, in order to foster cooperation on countering the threat of nuclear terrorism, and to develop new mechanisms to protect jointly critical infrastructure from cyber attack.	同样，欧洲大西洋国家可以加强国际原子能机构的保障监督制度，从而保证和平核能计划不被转移至其他用途，这样做的目的是促成反对核恐怖主义威胁方面的合作，并设立新机制共同保护关键设施免遭网络攻击。


Such actions are crucial to these states’ national security and global efforts to mitigate threats.	上述举措对保护国家安全和缓和核威胁的全球努力都具有至关重要的意义。


Pursuing arrangements that increase warning and decision-making time for all countries in the Euro-Atlantic region would introduce stability into the NATO-Russia relationship.	落实延长所有欧洲大西洋地区国家预警和决策时间的方案会为北约－俄罗斯关系增添稳定因素。


Adjustments in operational doctrine, as applied to strategic, tactical, and conventional forces, would constitute a giant step toward ending the relationship’s militarized framework.	战略、战术和传统部队行动准则的调整会朝着两者军事化架构的终结迈出很大的一步。


This is only a partial list of what must be done if governments are serious about building a stronger, inclusive European security order, one where the roles and risks of nuclear weapons are reduced, and ultimately eliminated.	如果政府的确希望建设更有力、更兼容并蓄的欧洲安全秩序，缓解并最终消除核武器的后果和威胁，这只是部分必须要做的事。


The three of us are working with a distinguished group from all corners of the Euro-Atlantic region to develop these and other concrete steps that are essential to creating a genuine security community, including its economic, energy, and environmental dimensions.	我们三人正和欧洲大西洋地区的著名组织合作制定上述和其他对建立真正安全共同体至关重要的具体步骤，范围涵盖了经济、能源和环境等领域。


NATO, OSCE, and other key regional institutions must give this concept and process their essential support.	上述理念和程序必须在今后几个月内得到北约、欧安组织和其他重要地区性机构实质性的支持。


Appeasement Revisited	重返缓和


I vividly remember the slightly ludicrous, slightly risqué, and somewhat distressing predicament in which Western diplomats in Prague found themselves during the Cold War.	布拉格的西方外交官在冷战期间陷入的那些有点滑稽、有点尴尬，又令人烦恼的困境，至今还让我记忆犹新。


They regularly needed to resolve the delicate issue of whether to invite to their embassy celebrations various Charter 77 signatories, human rights activists, critics of the communist regime, displaced politicians, or even banned writers, scholars, and journalists – people with whom the diplomats were generally friends.	他们经常会碰到是否要邀请77宪章缔约方、人权民主人士、共产党政府的批评者、流离失所的政治家、甚至是被禁作家、学者和记者来参加使馆庆祝活动的敏感问题¾这些人一般都是外交官们的朋友。


Sometimes we dissidents were not invited, but received an apology, and sometimes we were invited, but did not accept the invitation so as not to complicate the lives of our courageous diplomat friends.	有时我们这些持不同政见者收到的不是邀请而是致歉、有时我们收到了邀请，但为了不给我们勇敢的外交官朋友带来麻烦，知趣地没有去参加。


Or we were invited to come at an earlier hour in the hope that we would leave before the official representatives arrived, which sometimes worked and sometimes didn’t.	有时我们被邀请提早出席，希望我们能在官方代表到来之前就提早离开，这种方法有时管用，有时也会发生意外。


When it didn’t, either the official representatives left in protest at our presence, or we left hurriedly, or we all pretended not to notice each other, or – albeit on rare occasions – we started to converse with each other, which frequently were the only moments of dialogue between the regime and the opposition (not counting our courthouse encounters).	如果我们没来得及离开，那么或者官方代表看到我们就拂袖而去以示抗议，或者我们狼狈逃窜、或者我们都装着看不见对方，再或者¾虽然这种情况非常罕见¾我们开始相互交谈，这经常是除去我们双方法庭相遇的情况下，政府和反对派之间唯一的对话机会。


This all happened when the Iron Curtain divided Europe – and the world – into opposing camps.	这些都发生在欧洲和世界被铁幕隔绝，划分为两大对立阵营的那个年代。


Western diplomats had their countries’ economic interests to consider, but, unlike the Soviet side, they took seriously the idea of “dissidents or trade.”	西方外交官要考虑本国的经济利益，但他们和严格划分“持不同政见者或贸易”的苏联一方毕竟有所不同。


I cannot recall any occasion at that time when the West or any of its organizations (NATO, the European Community, etc.) issued some public appeal, recommendation, or edict stating that some specific group of independently-minded people – however defined – were not to be invited to diplomatic parties, celebrations, or receptions.	我想不起西方国家或组织（北约、欧盟等等）有哪次曾经公开发表呼吁、建议或法令，规定某些持独立思想的特定人群¾不管具体如何界定，都不能应邀参与外交聚会、庆祝会或招待活动。


But today this is happening.	但今天这种事却发生了。


One of the strongest and most powerful democratic institutions in the world – the European Union – has no qualms in making a public promise to the Cuban dictatorship that it will re-institute diplomatic Apartheid.	全世界最强大有力的民主机构之一¾欧盟¾毫不犹豫地向古巴专制政府公开承诺要重新实行外交隔离。


The EU’s embassies in Havana will now craft their guest lists in accordance with the Cuban government’s wishes.	欧盟驻哈瓦那大使馆现在将按古巴政府的希望来制定客人名单。


The shortsightedness of socialist Prime Minister José Zapatero of Spain has prevailed.	西班牙社会党首相萨帕特罗的短视行为如今却风行一时。


Try to imagine what will happen: at each European embassy, someone will be appointed to screen the list, name by name, and assess whether and to what extent the persons in question behave freely or speak out freely in public, to what extent they criticize the regime, or even whether they are former political prisoners.	想想将会发生什么吧：每个欧洲大使馆都会指定专人来挨个筛选名单，评估所要审核者是否行为不受约束、或当众随意发表观点，他们在什么程度上批评政府、甚至他们是否当过政治犯。


Lists will be shortened and deletions made, and this will frequently entail eliminating even good personal friends of the diplomats in charge of the screening, people whom they have given various forms of intellectual, political, or material assistance.	一部分人会从邀请名单中删除，名单也会越来越短，这样做还常常会删除负责审查工作的外交官的私人好友，删掉那些外交官们曾经在思想、政治或物质上无私援助过的人们。


It will be even worse if the EU countries try to mask their screening activities by inviting only diplomats to embassy celebrations in Cuba.	如果欧盟国家企图借只请外交官参加古巴大使馆的庆祝活动来对筛选行为加以掩饰，那么情况可能会变得更糟。


I can hardly think of a better way for the EU to dishonor the noble ideals of freedom, equality, and human rights that the Union espouses – indeed, principles that it reiterates in its constitutional agreement.	要想玷污欧盟与生俱来的自由、平等和人权等崇高的理想，再也没有比这个更好的办法了¾这些原则实际都包含在欧盟的宪法协议之中。


To protect European corporations’ profits from their Havana hotels, the Union will cease inviting open-minded people to EU embassies, and we will deduce who they are from the expression on the face of the dictator and his associates.	为了保护欧洲公司从哈瓦那酒店中赚取的利润，欧盟将会停止邀请思想开放的人士来到使馆，并会按照独裁者及其附庸们的脸色来判断他们究竟是什么人。


It is hard to imagine a more shameful deal.	没有什么比这更为可耻的交易了。


Cuba’s dissidents will, of course, happily do without Western cocktail parties and polite conversation at receptions.	当然，没有西方的鸡尾酒会和招待会上的礼节性交谈，古巴的持不同政见者们也不会感到沮丧。


This persecution will admittedly aggravate their difficult struggle, but they will naturally survive it.	这样的迫害虽然会给本已困难的斗争雪上加霜，但他们肯定挺得过去。


The question is whether the EU will survive it.	问题是欧盟能不能挺过去。


Today, the EU is dancing to Fidel’s tune.	今天，欧盟在看菲德尔的脸色行事。


That means that tomorrow it could bid for contracts to build missile bases on the coast of the People’s Republic of China. The following day it could allow its decisions on Chechnya to be dictated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advisers.	也就是说明天它可能会参与在中华人民共和国沿海建立导弹基地工程的竞标，接着它可能会让自己在车臣问题上的决策受到俄国总统普京顾问们的影响。


Then, for some unknown reason, it could make its assistance to Africa conditional on fraternal ties with the worst African dictators.	然后，出于某些不为人知的原因，它可能会把对自己对非洲的援助与那里最糟糕的独裁者的兄弟情谊联系起来。


Where will it end?	哪里才是头呢？


The release of Milosevic?	释放米洛舍维奇？


Denying a visa to Russian human rights activist Sergey Kovalyov?	拒绝为俄罗斯人权活动家Sergey Kovalyov发放签证？


An apology to Saddam Hussein?	向萨达姆·侯赛因道歉？


The opening of peace talks with Al Qaida?	开始和基地组织的谈判？


It is suicidal for the EU to draw on Europe’s worst political traditions, the common denominator of which is the idea that evil must be appeased and that the best way to achieve peace is through indifference to the freedom of others.	沿用欧洲最糟糕的政治传统对欧盟来讲无异于自杀，这些传统都有着安抚罪恶和认为对他人的自由不闻不问是维护和平最佳方式的共同特点。


Just the opposite is true: such policies expose an indifference to one’s own freedom and pave the way for war.	但实际情况却恰恰相反：这样的政策暴露了对自身自由的无动于衷，为战争埋下了伏笔。


After all, Europe is uniting in order to defend its freedom and values, not to sacrifice them to the ideal of harmonious coexistence with dictators and thus risk gradual infiltration of its soul by the anti-democratic mindset.	毕竟，欧洲正在为捍卫自由和价值观携起手来，绝不能为了与独裁者的和平共处就牺牲这些理想，从而冒着被反民主思想逐渐渗透灵魂的危险。


I firmly believe that the new members of the EU will not forget their experience of totalitarianism and non-violent opposition to evil, and that that experience will be reflected in how they behave in EU bodies.	我坚信欧盟的新成员不会忘记自己曾经有过的极权主义和以非暴力方式对抗罪恶的经历，而他们在欧盟团体内的处事方式会体现出他们的上述经历。


Indeed, this could be the best contribution they can make to the common spiritual, moral, and political foundations of a united Europe.	实际上，这也许是他们能够为团结的欧洲所拥��的共同精神、道德和政治基础做出的最大贡献。


Apple Versus the G-Men	苹果决战探员


VIRGINIA BEACH – Apple’s refusal to unlock the iPhone linked to the extremist attack in San Bernardino, California, in December has triggered a public battle with the US Justice Department and the FBI – a dispute with far-reaching implications for data privacy worldwide.	弗吉尼亚海滩——苹果拒绝解锁与12月加利福尼亚州圣贝纳迪诺极端分子袭击事件有关的iPhone已经引发了与美国司法部和联邦调查局的公开战斗——上述争议对全球数据隐私将产生深远的影响。


But the case is not as straightforward as it seems.	但情况绝非像看上去那样简单。


Speaking as someone with a long presence in the US intelligence community, I believe that the FBI has already gained access to Syed Rizwan Farook’s iPhone.	作为一名美国情报界资深服务人员，我认为联邦调查局已经获得了法鲁克的iPhone进入权限。


It is an older Apple model using technology that, in other contexts, has already been compromised.	他所使用的苹果手机型号相对老旧，在其他案件中，已经有过遭到入侵的记录。


Here’s another strange thing about the FBI’s demand of Apple: Why would the United States government stoop to a public debate on this issue?	联邦调查局对苹果所提的要求还有一点非常奇怪：美国政府为什么愿意就此问题屈尊进行公众辩论？


The FBI is the country’s most powerful law-enforcement organization, and Apple will ultimately be forced to comply with its request.	联邦调查局是美国最强势的执法机构，苹果最终将会被迫接受它的要求。


(Full disclosure: I own Apple stock.)	（完全披露：我持有苹果的股票。 ）


The FBI has already said that this is not about just one phone.	联邦调查局已经表示此事不仅关乎一部电话。


But few understand that this is not a simple matter of opposing interests: public safety versus an individual’s right to privacy.	但很少有人知道这并非利益对立的简单问题：而是公共安全与个人隐私权之争。


For a better understanding of the FBI’s demand, we need to look at Apple’s latest line of phones, which differ from Farook’s in a fundamental respect: They contain a new chip that was designed using a technique developed by the US National Security Agency and then shared with the Israelis.	为了更深入了解联邦调查局的要求，我们先要了解苹果的最新手机系列，这与法鲁克的旧型号有着本质的不同：其中包含由美国国家安全局开发并在其后与以色列人共享的新型芯片技术。


That technology is now finding its way into Apple products via the company’s Israeli chip-design division.	这项技术现在正通过苹果的以色列芯片设计部门进入到苹果产品当中。


Each of the new chips has a unique signature used for encryption, which is coupled with its user’s fingerprint.	每个芯片都有独一无二的加密签名，并与用户的指纹配合使用。


Without that signature, it is impossible to decrypt an Apple phone without physical access to the internals of its chip – which is itself impenetrable.	没有签名就不可能在不对芯片内部进行物理接触的情况下解密苹果手机——这种芯片本身不可能被攻破。


That encryption also applies to any information sent by the phone to a paired service, like Apple’s Messages system.	加密同样适用于手机发送到配对服务的任何信息，比方说苹果的邮件服务系统。


In the past, immediate access to telephony devices has been irrelevant to the FBI, because the authorities had unfettered access to communications as they traveled to and from a phone.	过去，即时访问电话设备对联邦调查局无关紧要，因为当局对进出电话的信息可以毫无限制的进行访问。


But, with its new security improvements, Apple is now closing that door.	但凭借这种改进后的安全功能，苹果现在关闭了这扇大门。


The company is not simply denying new access; it will soon take away existing access.	该公司不仅关闭了新的接入； 就连现有接入也将很快受到威胁。


This bothers the FBI, because its job is to collect evidence.	这让联邦调查局非常不安，因为收集证据是它的工作。


Interestingly, the NSA has taken a different stance.	有趣的是，国家安全局采取了不同的立场。


Backdoors have been acknowledged as dangerous by NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers, who says that “encryption is foundational to the future.”	国家安全局局长海军上将迈克·罗杰斯已经承认后门极具危险性，并表示“加密技术是未来的基础”。


When access to private communications is possible, anyone can use it for any purpose.	如果侵入私人通讯成为可能，任何人都可以为任何目的这样做。


This complicates the FBI’s argument about public safety.	这让联邦调查局公共安全观点变得错综复杂。


For example, do we really want a terrorist group to be capable of accessing a president’s or prime minister’s private information?	比方说，我们是否真的希望恐怖组织能对总统或总理的私人信息进行访问？


If a phone has a backdoor, it can be opened by anyone with enough motivation – criminals, extremists, and governments alike.	如果手机里存在后门程序，只要有足够的动机任何人都可以打开——包括不法分子、极端分子和政府。


The Chinese authorities, for example, would be delighted if Apple complied with the FBI’s request.	比方说，如果苹果接受了联邦调查局的要求中国政府会很高兴。


They have been asking Apple for a backdoor for years.	多年来，他们一直要求苹果提供后门。


Apple’s current stand could cause it to suffer in the massive Chinese market – or profit immensely if it complies.	苹果当前立场可能导致其在大中国市场受损——如果接受政府的要求又将带来巨额利润。


The FBI’s request signals a new attempt at control.	联邦调查局的要求标志着一种新的控制企图。


This is an organization that usually delivers its requests under seal, meaning they remain secret.	该机构的请求往往密封传递，也就是说到现在仍然是保密的。


In this case, the FBI took the unusual step of making its demand public, so as to push the issue into the press by hitting the hot button of “terrorism.”	这一次，联邦调查局一反常态地公开自己的要求，目的是借“恐怖主义”的热点引发媒体的关注。


The FBI’s intent, it seems, is to prompt lawmakers to respond to public outrage.	联邦调查局似乎意在迫使立法者回应公众的愤怒。


Most legal arguments against “unlocking” this particular phone cite the constitutionally protected right to free speech.	反对解锁这部电话的多数法律论点都在引用宪法对于言论自由的保护。


But a better parallel is the right to gun ownership in the US and the constitutional provisions that support it.	但美国及其宪法条文规定的枪支所有权其实是更好的平行范例。


In the past, technology in the US was primarily developed in a military context and justified in the service of war, but also to maintain civil order.	过去，美国的技术主要源于军事研发和战争服务，同时也起着维护社会秩序的作用。


At the end of the eighteenth century, the apotheosis of that technology was the firearm.	在18世纪末，枪支曾经是相关技术的典范。


No other technology was as apt, so the US Constitution specified that it would not be used to curtail speech (First Amendment) or be denied to the citizenry (Second Amendment), and that government holders of firearms could not be placed in citizens’ homes (Third Amendment).	没有哪项技术比枪支技术更有效，因此美国宪法规定，枪支不能被用来限制言论（第一修正案）或剥夺公民拥有枪支的自由（第二修正案），政府的枪支持有者不允许进入居民家中（第三修正案）。