Finally, blockage of the multilateral process will trigger an even more pronounced shift toward bilateral or regional free trade agreements (FTA’s).	最后，妨碍多边进程会造成成员国更显著地朝着双边或区域性自由贸易协定(FTA)的方向努力。


FTA’s cannot substitute for multilateral liberalization.	FTA不能取代多边自由化。


If properly designed, they can benefit their members, especially if combined with reduced trade barriers for all trading partners.	如果设计得当，特别是如果能和降低针对所有成员国的关税壁垒结合，自由贸易协定能使其成员国受益。


If designed badly, the cost of such agreements – in terms of trade diversion, confusion, and demands on limited administrative capacity – often exceeds the benefits.	可如果设计不当，它们所造成的成本—如贸易转向、混乱和对国家有限掌控能力的过多要求—会使弊大于利。


More broadly, the growth of FTA’s undermines the central principle of the multilateral trading system: trade opportunities should be offered to all countries equally.	更广泛而言，FTA的增加不利于多边贸易体系的中心原则：贸易机会对所有国家均等。


The multilateral trading system has faced challenges before, including during the Uruguay Round in the early 1990’s, and has emerged with renewed vigor.	多边贸易体系从前也遇到过挑战，包括在1990年代早期的乌拉圭回合谈判中。 而它却在逆境中获得了新的活力。


We believe that it is still possible for the international community to get a good deal done.	我们相信国际社会仍有可能达成良好的协议。


But a sense of urgency is needed.	但我们需要有紧迫感。


What, concretely, should be done in order to restart the negotiations?	具体而言，为了重开谈判我们需要做些什么呢？


Key countries must find the political will to confront defensive interests and negotiate with flexibility to reach a market-opening deal.	举足轻重的成员国必须有对抗保守利益的政治意愿，并在谈判中有足够的灵活性以达成一个开放市场的协议。


The initiative will have to come from the top if the case is to be made within each country for more open markets, and for help to be made available to those facing adjustment.	如果要让每个国家都同意进一步开放市场，并对在此过程中面临调整的国家提供帮助，那么这种努力就必须是自上而下的。


All countries will have to give; no country can be expected to carry the burden alone.	所有的国家都要有所妥协； 没有一个国家应该独自承担这一责任。


Pro-trade forces can speak up in the political process.	贸易支持派应该在这个政治进程中大声疾呼。


For example, it is untenable in rich countries that farm interests accounting for less than 4% of employment are effectively able to block a deal to open new markets for services and manufactures, which account for more than 90% of employment.	例如，对于富国而言，只占总就业人口4%的农业能够有效地妨碍占总就业人口90%以上的服务业和制造业开辟新市场的说法是站不住脚的。


In developing countries, pro-trade voices could help turn the debate toward the opportunities of global integration rather than emphasizing exceptions.	在发展中国家，贸易支持派可以为把辩论引向全球经济一体化的机遇而不是强调各自期望助一臂之力。


The bottom line is that trade reforms benefit the country making them.	底线是贸易改革要使实施改革的国家受益。


The Doha Round is an opportunity for countries to benefit from others’ reforms as well as their own.	多哈回合是一个能使各个国家从别国也从自身的改革中受益的机会。


Meanwhile, there should be no backsliding on the progress already made, such as the offer to eliminate agricultural export subsidies by 2013 and to provide duty-free/quota-free access for almost all exports from least developed countries.	同时，已经取得的进展也不能倒退。 例如在2013年取消农业出口补贴并为几乎所有最不发达国家的出口商品提供免税/免配额的市场准入。


We encourage donors to follow through on their commitments to increase effective aid for trade – assistance to help developing countries take full advantage of trade opportunities as a lever for growth.	我们鼓励捐助方实践其增加有效贸易援助的承诺—帮助发展中国家充分利用贸易机会促进经济增长。


For our part, both the World Bank and the IMF are stepping up financial, technical, and analytical trade-related assistance.	在我们这方面，世界银行和国际货币基金组织正逐步增加金融、技术和分析方面与贸易有关的援助。


Much has already been achieved in the negotiations, and an agreement of significant value is within reach.	谈判已经取得了许多成果，一项价值巨大的协议指日可待。


While the path back to the negotiating table is not an easy one, the obstacles are not insurmountable.	虽然重回谈判桌的路途还充满了坎坷，但却并没有不可逾越的障碍。


All countries, but especially the major players, have a responsibility to honor their commitment to the Doha Round.	所有国家，特别是主要成员国都有责任尊重它们对多哈回合的承诺。


For the sake of their citizens, the global trading system, and the world’s poor, it is time to get back to business.	为了它们的民众，为了全球贸易体系和世界上贫穷的人，是到了重回多哈谈判桌的时候了。


Time to Nationalize Insolvent Banks	资不抵债银行应该国有化


NEW YORK – A year ago, I predicted that the losses of US financial institutions would reach at least $1 trillion and possibly go as high as $2 trillion.	纽约--一年前，我预计美国金融机构的亏损将会达到一万亿美元，甚至可能高达两万亿美元。


At that time, the consensus among economists and policymakers was that these estimates were exaggerated, because it was believed that sub-prime mortgage losses totaled only about $200 billion.	当时，经济学家和决策者的共识是这些估计言过其实，因为人们相信次贷损失总共只有大约两千亿美元。


As I pointed out, with the United States and global economy sliding into a severe recession, bank losses would extend well beyond sub-prime mortgages to include sub-prime, near-prime, and prime mortgages; commercial real estate; credit cards, auto loans, and student loans; industrial and commercial loans; corporate bonds; sovereign bonds and state and local government bonds; and losses on all of the assets that securitized such loans.	正如我所指出的，随着美国和全球经济滑入严重的衰退，银行亏损将会大大超出次贷领域，包括次贷，近次级以及优等房贷、商业房地产、信用卡、车贷和学生贷款、企业和商业贷款、企业债券、国家、州以及地方政府债券以及所有这些贷款所证券化资产的亏损。


Indeed, since then, the write-downs by US banks have already passed the $1 trillion mark (my floor estimate of losses), and institutions such as the IMF and Goldman Sachs now predict losses of more than $2 trillion.	确实，从那时以来，美国银行的抵销已经超出了一万亿美元(也就是我的最低估计)，而国际货币基金组织和高盛公司等机构现在估计亏损要超出两万亿美元。


But if you think that the $2 trillion figure is already huge, the latest estimates by my research consultancy RGE Monitor suggest that total losses on loans made by US financial firms and the fall in the market value of the assets they hold (things like mortgage-backed securities) will peak at about $3.6 trillion.	但是如果你认为两万亿美元的数字已经庞大，那么，我的研究咨询公司RGE所做的估计表明美国各金融公司做出的贷款总体亏损及其持有的资产市值下跌将会高达大约三点六万亿美元。


US banks and broker dealers are exposed to about half of this figure, or $1.8 trillion; the rest is borne by other financial institutions in the US and abroad.	美国银行和证券公司要承担一半的风险，或者一点八万亿美元。 剩下的将由美国和世界各地的其他金融机构承担。


The capital backing the banks’ assets was only $1.4 trillion last fall, leaving the US banking system some $400 billion in the hole, or close to zero even after the government and private-sector recapitalization of such banks.	去年秋天支撑银行资产的资本只有一点四万亿美元，这样美国银行系统有将近四千亿美元的亏空，或者，即使政府和私营部门给这些银行注资后也是将近为零。


Another $1.5 trillion is needed to bring banks’ capital back to pre-crisis level, which is needed to resolve the credit crunch and restore lending to the private sector.	还需要一点五万亿美元才能把银行资本带回到危机前的水平。 人们需要这些钱才能解决信贷紧缩问题并且恢复向私营部门借贷。


So, the US banking system is effectively insolvent in the aggregate; most of the British banking system looks insolvent, too, as do many continental European banks.	所以在整体上，美国的银行体系已经实际上资不抵债了。 英国的银行体系大体上也是资不抵债，而且许多欧洲大陆的银行也是如此。


There are four basic approaches to cleaning up a banking system that is facing a systemic crisis: recapitalization of the banks, together with a purchase of their toxic assets by a government “bad bank”; recapitalization, together with government guarantees – after a first loss by the banks – of the toxic assets; private purchase of toxic assets with a government guarantee (the current US government plan); and outright nationalization (or call it  “government receivership” if you don’t like the dirty N-word) of insolvent banks and their resale to the private sector after being cleaned.	一般而言，人们有四种途经来清理面临体制危机的银行系统。 它们是：给银行重新注资外加政府“坏帐银行”购买其有毒资产、重新注资外加政府担保有毒资产(银行首先要承担亏损)、政府担保下的私人购买有毒资产(也是美国政府目前的方案)以及直接国有化(如果不喜欢国有化这个说法，就叫它“政府破产管理”)资不抵债的银行并且在清理之后重新卖给私营部门。


Of the four options, the first three have serious flaws.	以上四种选择中，前三个存在严重的缺陷。


In the “bad bank” model, the government may overpay for the bad assets, whose true value is uncertain.	在“坏帐银行”模式中，政府可能会为不良资产支付过多，这些不良资产的实际价值无法确定。


Even in the guarantee model there can be such implicit government over-payment (or an over-guarantee that is not properly priced by the fees that the government receives).	即使是在担保模式中，也会隐藏着过多支付的问题(或者过度担保，政府收取的费用并未合理定价)。


In the “bad bank” model, the government has the additional problem of managing all the bad assets that it purchased – a task for which it lacks expertise.	在“坏帐银行”模式中，政府管理其收购的所有不良资产又带来新的问题，因为政府没有专长经验来完成这一任务。


And the very cumbersome US Treasury proposal – which combines removing toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets while providing government guarantees – was so non-transparent and complicated that the markets dove as soon as it was announced.	美国财政部笨重的方案就是将有毒资产从银行资产负债表上剥离同时提供政府担保。 这一模式过于缺乏透明度而且复杂，因此，这一方案一经宣布，股市随即大跌。


Thus, paradoxically nationalization may be a more market-friendly solution: it wipes out common and preferred shareholders of clearly insolvent institutions, and possibly unsecured creditors if the insolvency is too large, while providing a fair upside to the tax-payer.	因此，在似是而非的情况下，国有化或许是一个更为倾向于市场的方案。 这一方案将明显资不抵债机构的普通股和优先股一扫而光，如果资不抵债过于庞大，甚至包括未经担保的债权人。


It can also resolve the problem of managing banks’ bad assets by reselling most of assets and deposits – with a government guarantee – to new private shareholders after a clean-up of the bad assets (as in the resolution of the Indy Mac bank failure).	与此同时，这一方案给予纳税人一定的好处。 通过在政府担保条件下在清理不良资产后向新的私人股东转售大部分资产和存款，这一方案还可以解决管理银行不良资产的问题(因迪美银行倒闭就是这样处理的)。


Nationalization also resolves the too-big-too-fail problem of banks that are systemically important, and that thus need to be rescued by the government at a high cost to taxpayers.	国有化还解决了银行规模过大难以倒闭的问题。 这些银行举足轻重，因此政府就需要以纳税人高昂的代价予以挽救。


Indeed, the problem has now grown larger, because the current approach has led weak banks to take over even weaker banks.	确实，这一问题已经变得更大，因为目前的做法已经导致体弱的银行接管更加体弱的银行。


Merging zombie banks is like drunks trying to help each other stand up.	兼并这些借尸还魂的银行就像是醉鬼相互帮助站起来。


JPMorgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns and WaMu; Bank of America’s takeover of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch; and Wells Fargo’s takeover of Wachovia underscore the problem.	大通摩根接管拜尔斯登和华盛顿互惠银行，美洲银行接管全国房贷公司和美林集团以及富国银行接管美联银行，这些案例都突出了这一问题。


With nationalization, the government can break up these financial monstrosities and sell them to private investors as smaller good banks.	随着国有化，政府就可以分解这些金融怪物并且以规模较小但是资信良好的银行的面目出售给私人投资者。


Whereas Sweden adopted this approach successfully during its banking crisis in the early 1990’s, the current US and British approach may end up producing Japanese-style zombie banks – never properly restructured and perpetuating a credit freeze.	瑞典在九十年代早期银行危机的时候成功地采用了这一手法，而美国和英国当前的措施可能会最终产生日本式的借尸还魂银行。 这些银行从来就没有得到妥善的重组，并且无限延长了信贷冻结。


Japan suffered a decade-long near-depression because of its failure to clean up the banks.	日本由于未能清理银行而经受了十年之久的近乎萧条的经济困境。


The US, the United Kingdom, and other economies risk a similar outcome – multi-year recession and price deflation – if they fail to act appropriately.	美国、英国以及其他经济体如果未能采取合理行动也将会有相似的风险，也就是数年的衰退以及通货紧缩。


Time to Talk with Iran	对话伊朗正当时


BERLIN – The recent comprehensive assessment by America’s spy agencies about Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions – the so-called “National Intelligence Estimate” – has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany.	柏林—最近美国谍报组织对伊朗核计划和野心的全面评估—即所谓的“国家情报预估”（NIE）开启了联合国安理会五大常任理事国和德国之间新的战略商讨。


Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration (and a few elsewhere), who until recently have been prophets of imminent danger.	这种战略上的重新考量对于布什政府（和其他一些政府）中的官员们而言可能最为必要的。 这些人直到最近还一直预言着迫在眉睫的危险。


For Europeans, the NIE has not removed, but rather confirmed, the concerns that in 2003 prompted the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) – namely, that Iran’s nuclear program could eventually give it a military nuclear capability, and that even before that point, it might trigger regional nuclear proliferation.	对欧洲人而言，NIE非但没有消除，反而更确认了欧盟三强（英、法、德）在2003年就共有的一个担忧，即伊朗的核计划可能最终使其拥有军事核能力，甚至在此之前还可能引发区域性的核扩散。


The NIE also confirmed two assumptions that have since guided European diplomatic approach: Iran reacts to external incentives and disincentives, and taking legitimate Iranian interests into consideration is the best way to influence Iran’s leaders.	NIE还确认了一直指导欧洲外交策略的两种假设：伊朗会对外部的积极和消极因素做出回应，考虑伊朗人的合法利益是对伊朗领导人施加影响的最佳方式。


Most Europeans who have been dealing with the issue also assume that Iran is aiming at capacities that would eventually make available all options, including quick development of a nuclear weapon, rather than actually acquiring, let alone testing, a weapon and thereby violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.	与这一问题打交道的大多数欧洲人还认为伊朗的目的是最终拥有全面的核能力，包括快速发展而不是购买核武器，更别说测试核武器了。 这样它就会违反《核不扩散条约》。


So concern about Iran’s nuclear program is still justified.	因此对伊朗核计划的担心仍然是有道理的。


The robust diplomatic approach that is needed to confront the problem must include three components.	应对这一问题的健全外交策略必须包括三个组成部分。


First, it should be based on a broad international consensus.	首先，它必须是基于一种广泛的国际共识。


Second, it should clearly communicate that the issue is proliferation, not the nature of the Iranian regime.	其次，它必须清楚的表明问题在于（核）扩散，而不是伊朗政权的性质。


Third, any further sanctions should be accompanied by an earnest offer of dialogue and engagement.	再次，任何进一步的制裁都必须和积极的对话与接触相结合。


By contrast, some American policymakers continue to believe that Iran would abandon its enrichment program if only the European Union imposed unilateral sanctions.	相较之下，一些美国的政策制定者仍然相信只要欧盟实施单边制裁，伊朗就会放弃铀浓缩计划。


But a clear-headed analysis of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s behavior indicates that EU sanctions would lead to more trade diversion, with China, Russia, Turkey, or Dubai benefiting from reduced levels of European exports to Iran.	但只要头脑冷静地分析一下伊朗总统内贾德的言行就会发现欧盟的制裁只会引起贸易的多元化，使中国、俄罗斯、土耳其或迪拜都从欧洲对伊朗的出口缩减中获益。


Of course, some imports would become more expensive for Iran, but the economic effect of such sanctions would remain limited.	当然，有些进口对伊朗来说会更昂贵，但这种制裁的经济作用仍然是有限的。


Politically, Ahmadinejad certainly would not miss the chance to exploit unilateral measures for propaganda purposes – claiming that Iran has a conflict not with the international community, but with imperialist states intent on depriving his country of technological progress.	在政治上，内贾德当然不会错过利用单边手段达到宣传目的的机会—声称伊朗不是与国际社会有冲突，而是不能容忍帝国主义国家剥夺其技术进步的企图。


For these reasons, Europeans favor a new Security Council resolution, even if its measures are weaker than what the United States or the EU could impose unilaterally.	鉴于上述原因，欧洲希望安理会通过一项新的决议，即便它的具体措施比美国或欧盟可能实施的单边措施更软弱。


Such a resolution would send an effective signal to the Iranian public and political elite that Iran is in conflict with the entire international community.	这样一份决议会向伊朗大众和政治精英发送一个有效的信号，即伊朗正在和整个国际社会发生冲突。


Iranians do not like to be isolated; even the clerical elite has a strong interest in exchanges with the rest of the world, and they like to send their children to Western schools.	伊朗人不喜欢被孤立； 即使是宗教精英阶层也对和世界其他国家的交流有着浓厚的兴趣，他们喜欢将子女送到西方接受教育。


Making it obvious that it is Ahmadinejad’s policies that are isolating Iran would strengthen the still-fragile anti-Ahmadinejad alliance of pragmatic conservatives and reformers, which has lately become more vocal.	清楚表明正是内贾德的政策在使伊朗陷入孤立，可以加强仍然脆弱的、由务实派保守人士和改革者组成的反内贾德联盟。 这个联盟的声势最近有所增强。


This is important to bear in mind, as a parliamentary (majlis) election is scheduled for March 2008.	由于议会 (majlis) 选举定于2008年3月举行，我们更应该记住这一点。


The election will not be entirely free, but the government will be unable to manipulate them entirely.	选举不会是完全自由的，但政府也不能完全操纵它。


The majlis plays a role in the political process, to the point of being able to induce or hinder policy changes: witness the way a conservative majlis blocked reformist President Mohammad Khatami in the last years of his term.	议会在政治进程中发挥着自己的作用，它能够促进或阻碍政策变化：保守的议会在改革派总统卡塔米任期的最后一年对其施政的阻挠就是例证。


Europeans should now be confident enough to call for a common policy with the US that focuses on domestic developments in Iran.	欧洲人现在应该有足够的信心呼吁美国制定关注伊朗国内发展的共同政策。


Such a policy can include additional Security Council sanctions, but it must also carry an offer of dialogue that pragmatic forces in Iran would not refuse.	这一政策可以包括另外的安理会制裁，但它也必须包括一个让伊朗的务实派不会拒绝的对话机制。


Both the EU and the US should be prepared to enter into direct, comprehensive, and unconditional negotiations with Iran.	欧盟和美国都应该准备好与伊朗进行直接、全面和无条件的谈判。


Where security guarantees are concerned, America is Iran’s actual foe and potential partner.	就安全保障而言，美国是伊朗的实际敌人和潜在伙伴。


So far, the two governments have communicated either through the EU or on strictly limited issues through their ambassadors in Baghdad.	到目前为止，两国政府之间的沟通要么通过欧盟，要么仅就非常有限的问题通过两国驻巴格达的大使达成。


The US has so far insisted that it will agree to a comprehensive dialogue only if Iran first suspends its enrichment activities.	到目前为止，美国坚持只有在伊朗同意首先暂停铀浓缩活动的前提下才同意与其展开全面对话。


But this should be the result of, not a precondition for, negotiations.	但这应该是谈判的结果而不是前提。


Whatever the US and Europe decide to do about Iran will affect that country’s internal political dynamics.	不论美国和欧洲决定对伊朗采取何种行动��都会影响该国的国内政治动态。


There are no easy mechanics at work here.	在这一点上没有任何简单易行的机制。


The best method of strengthening Ahmadinejad, however, appears to be to threaten the country and the regime as a whole.	然而，强化内贾德力量的最佳方式似乎就是威胁该国及其整个政权。


An honest offer of engagement would allow Ahmadinejad’s pragmatic opponents to show that it is Iran’s president and his controversial policies, not the West, that are at fault.	一种诚实接触的姿态会让内贾德的务实派反对者能够向民众表明过错在于伊朗总统和其引发争议的政策，而不在于西方。


Putting Democracy Above the Bottom Line	民主应该比利益更重要


BOSTON – This month, we will have a chance to chart a course toward a stronger, safer global society, where power belongs to the many, not to the few, and where those who have run roughshod over our environment, human rights, and public health will be held accountable.	波士顿—本月我们将有机会制定一条通往更强大、更安全的全球社会之路，权力属于大多数而不是一小撮，那些漠视环境、人权和公共卫生的人将被问责。


I am not talking about the United States’ presidential election.	我说的不是美国总统大选。


To be sure, the US election will be immensely consequential; but endless punditry and horserace politics have obscured two groundbreaking events that begin on November 7: meetings of the parties to the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).	诚然，美国大选将产生立竿见影的后果； 但没完没了的专家解读和赛马政治遮挡了11月7日开始的两起突破性事件：世界卫生组织控烟框架公约（FCTC）各方会议和联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）各方会议。


Superficially, international law lacks the drama of a presidential race, and can undoubtedly seem stuffy at best, and irrelevant at worst.	表面上，国际法没有总统竞选的戏剧性，看上去相当的沉闷，甚至可以说无关紧要。


But if one digs a little deeper, one finds an almost Shakespearean struggle between democracy and unbridled greed.	但如果你稍微深挖一下就会发现，在民主和无节制的贪婪之间几乎存在一种莎士比亚式的纠结。


At each conference this month, the international community will make decisions that will affect the outcome of this struggle, and which could begin to solve some of today’s most vexing global issues.	在本月的每一次会议上，国际社会都会做出影响这一纠结的结果的决定，并且可能启动当今最棘手的全球问题的解决过程。


Both the FCTC and the UNFCCC allow for governments to rein in global corporations’ unchecked power, which is a root cause of many other problems, from economic inequality to social injustice and broken democratic systems.	FCTC和UNFCCC让政府能够压制跨国公司不受制衡的权力，这种权力是诸多其他问题的根源，包括经济不确定性、社会不公、民主制度崩溃等。 跨国公司体量巨大，几乎影响到我们日常生活的每一个角落。


Global corporations are enormous, and their influence affects almost every aspect of our lives.	要理解它们的权力的无处不在，只消看看它们在选举上所花费的数十亿美元；


To understand the reach of their power, one must look no further than the billions of dollars they spend on elections; their lobbying to gut worker and environmental protections in trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; and fossil-fuel corporations’ relentless drive to derail climate-change policy.	它们在跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（TPP）和跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴协定（TTIP）等贸易协定中剔除工人和环境保护条款的游说力量； 以及化石燃料公司对气候变化政策肆无忌惮的破坏。


Global corporations have disproportionate power because they can operate across national borders, which means that no single local or national government can effectively regulate them.	跨国公司之所以拥有巨大的权力，是因为它们可以跨境经营，这意味着任何单一地方或国家政府都无法有效地管制它们。


The crucial function of international frameworks such as the FCTC and UNFCCC is to provide concrete tools for governments to set national policies on issues ranging from public health to climate change and global inequality.	FCTC和UNFCCC等国际框架的关键功能是为政府提供了具体的工具制定公共卫生、气候变化和全球不平等等问题上的国家政策。


For example, Colombia was a stronghold for the tobacco corporation Philip Morris International two decades ago, and comprehensive tobacco-control legislation in that country was long unthinkable.	比如，哥伦比亚二十年前是烟草巨头菲利普莫里斯国际（Philip Morris International）的重要据点，长期以来根本无法制定全面的控烟立法。


But in 2009 – just six years after the World Health Organization adopted the FCTC and 15 months after Colombia ratified it – the Colombian government enacted one of the strongest tobacco-control laws in the world.	但在2009年——世界卫生组织实施FCTC仅仅六年后、哥伦比亚批准FCTC仅仅15个月后——哥伦比亚政府就出台了全球最严格之一的控烟法。


Likewise, governments worldwide are adopting measures that are proven to reduce smoking rates and save lives, including graphic health warnings, marketing restrictions, and laws requiring tobacco products to be sold in unbranded packaging.	类似地，全球各国政府正在采取被证明能够降低吸烟率、拯救生命的措施，包括健康警告图示、营销活动限制和要求烟草产品以无品牌包装形式出售的法律等。


But the FCTC’s work is not done, and governments are now pushing for legal liability to be a part of national-level corporate-accountability frameworks.	但FCTC的工作还没有完成，政府正在推行法律责任作为国家级公司问责框架的一部分。


If they are successful in negotiations at the FCTC conference this month, governments will have the tools they need to make Big Tobacco pay for the damage it has done.	如果它们在本月的FCTC会议中谈判成功，政府将拥有所需要的工具让大烟草公司为它们所造成的伤害买单。


Such an outcome would mean that governments could recoup hundreds of billions of dollars in tobacco-related health-care costs and force the release of internal industry documents.	这一结果将意味着政府能够收回数千亿美元的烟草相关医疗成本，并强制要求披露内部产业资料。


The FCTC is effective because it includes a hard-won provision that explicitly prohibits corporations from influencing policymaking.	FCTC之所以有效，是因为它包括了来之不易的明确禁止公司影响政策制定的条款。


At the UNFCCC conference next week, some governments will hold up the FCTC as a strong precedent to argue that the fossil-fuel industry must be excluded from ongoing climate negotiations, owing to its conflicts of interest with sound climate policy.	在下周的UNFCCC会议上，一些政府将援引FCTC作为重要的先例支持化石燃料行业应该被排除在进行中的气候谈判之外，因为它与可靠气候政策之间存在利益冲突。


Industries responsible for climate change must not be entrusted to solve it.	决不可信任负有气候变化责任的行业去解决它。


Only by removing them from the equation can we implement truly groundbreaking measures – such as renewable-energy systems owned and operated by communities – that put people and our planet’s survival above the industry’s bottom line.	只有把它们踢出局，我们才能实施真正的突破性措施——如社区所有和运营的可再生能源系统——做到人民和地球的生存重于产业利润。


For as long as we’ve had public regulatory institutions, corporate interests have sought to co-opt them.	只要我们有公共监管机构，公司利益就会试图操纵它们。


Big Tobacco, Big Oil, Big Food, and Big Pharma have tried to bully, buy, and bribe their way into our public international spaces, all with the same goal in mind: to fend off regulation that would disrupt business as usual.	大烟草、大石油、大食品、大制药公司试过通过威逼利诱蚕食我们的公共国际空间，它们的目标都是一样的：消除妨碍日常生意的监管。


Costs to human life or the planet rarely enter into their calculus.	至于对生命和地球造成的代价，是很少纳入它们的考虑范围的。


Democracy advocates in civil society and government have managed to push back against global corporations, but much of their progress hangs in the balance this month.	公民社会和政府中的民主支持者成功地阻挡了跨国公司，但他们所取得的进展在本月命悬一线。


Will attendees at the FCTC and UNFCCC conferences defend democratic principles, or will they defer to big business?	FCTC和UNFCCC会议与会者能捍卫民主原则吗？ 还是会屈从于大企业？


The United Kingdom’s “Brexit” referendum notwithstanding, there is no denying that we live in a truly global world.	尽管出现了“英国退欧”公投，但不可否认我们生活在一个真正的全球化世界中。


When the causes of our biggest problems are global, our solutions must be as well, which requires that we first address the fundamental issue of corporate interference.	既然我们的最大问题的根源是全球性的，解决方案也必然是全球性的，这又需要我们首先解决好公司干预这又自基本问题。


The possibilities of what can be achieved by bringing international law to bear are too promising to ignore.	实施国际法可以取得成效的可能性太重要，绝不容忽视。


Tobin Trouble	托宾麻烦


CAMBRIDGE – European leaders are seriously considering a Tobin tax, which would put a small levy on financial transactions, thereby dampening trading.	美国剑桥—欧洲领导人正在认真考虑托宾税，即对金融交易征收少量的税金，从而抑制交易。


But will the tax do as much as its proponents hope?	但这一税种能起到其鼓吹者所希望的效果吗？


The popularity of the tax (named for the late Nobel laureate economist James Tobin, for whom its aim was to reduce exchange-rate volatility in currency markets) reflects widespread animus directed at the financial sector, but it far exceeds any real benefits that the tax would deliver.	这一税种（用已故诺贝尔经济学奖获得者詹姆斯·托宾的名字命名，他的初衷是减少货币市场上的汇率波动）大受支持反映了人们对金融部门的广泛敌意，但人们对其的支持度远远超过了该税种所能带来的好处。


Nonetheless, elected officials find a Tobin tax highly appealing, because it could blunt criticism and divert attention from fundamental, but politically paralyzing, problems surrounding economic policy, particularly budgets, debt, and slow growth.	尽管如此，当选官员仍觉得托宾税具有相当大的吸引力，因为它能够让批评之声有所消停，还能把公众目光从经济政策（特别是预算、债务和增长疲软）等基本但又不具有政治可行性的问题上转移开去。


A Tobin tax does have benefits, even if it cannot address enough of the problems that afflict financial markets today.	托宾税确实有诸多好处，尽管它不能充分解决困扰当今金融市场的全部问题。


A tax on stock transactions encourages longer-term holdings.	对股票交易征税能够鼓励人们长期持股。


It taxes liquidity, which many believe is overly abundant.	托宾税的征收对象是在很多人看来过于宽松的流动性。


It encourages fundamental analysis of a company’s operations, and some advocates hope that a Tobin tax would push firms themselves to focus even more on long-term value.	托宾税能鼓励人们分析公司经营的基本面，一些鼓吹者更是希望托宾税能促使企业自身更加专注于长期价值。


Moreover, a Tobin tax moves financial traders – talented people with strong work habits – into other activities, which (policymakers hope) will benefit the economy more.	此外，托宾税能让金融交易者——大多是有着良好工作习惯的人才——转行，（决策者希望）这能够让经济获得更多的好处。


And, if financial innovations like derivatives and short-term repurchase agreements have made markets more volatile and fragile, a Tobin tax could help to stabilize and strengthen them.	如果说衍生品和短期回购协议等金融创新让市场变得更加波动、更加脆弱的话，那么托宾税有助于稳定和强化市场。


While these are worthy goals, there are good reasons to believe that the tax would not achieve most of them.	这些目标都是值得追求的，但有充分的理由相信，托宾税无法完成这些目标。


Long-term stockholders alone do not encourage a firm’s managers to manage for the long term.	光靠长期持股本身并不能促使企业管理者从长期着眼管理企业。


In fact, to the extent that dampened trading diminishes market feedback to firms and their directors, it could make managers complacent.	事实上，被抑制的交易活动会削弱市场像企业及其董事的反馈作用，这会使管理者更加放任恣睢。


Traders might stop trading, but shareholders still might not conduct more fundamental, long-term analysis: the rise of index funds, which hold a broadly-diversified swath of the entire stock market, reflects this trend toward stockholder passivity.	交易者可能停止交易，但股东并不能更好地把握长期基本面分析：指数基金的大热（持有一揽子充分多样化、覆盖整个股票市场的指数）便反映了这一不利于股东的趋势。


Lowering volatility and sopping up excess liquidity can be beneficial, but there are risks here as well: regulators can easily overshoot the mark, leaving financial markets with weakened capacity for price discovery and too little liquidity.	降低波动性和吸收多于流动性是有益的，但也有风险：监管者很容易过犹不及，削弱金融市场的价格发现功能，造成流动性不足的问题。


That leaves the hope that a Tobin tax would induce high-IQ financial traders to do something else, with higher net benefits to society.	最后是托宾税是否能促使高智商金融交易者转行，从而为社会创造净福利。


If trading today is not helping to move capital to its highest and best use, reallocating inefficiently employed financial talent could yield big benefits.	如果今天的交易行为并没有让资本流向用处最大的地方，那么对未被有效利用的金融人才给予重新配置能产生相当大的好处。


But is too much trading really a critical economic problem?	但是，交易过多真的是关键性的经济问题吗？


Consider the following.	让我们好好思考一下。


The financial crisis erupted in 2008 when mortgage-backed securities were revalued at much less than what they had been thought to be worth.	2008年金融危机爆发的原因是按揭抵押证券被重新估值，新的估值远低于之前人们所认为的价值。


The problem was not that these securities were ferociously traded (most were not, and thus were not the kind of security that a Tobin tax would hit hard), but rather that everyone in financial markets revalued them at the same time.	问题并不在于这些证券被过度交易了（绝大部分没有，因此它们也不会成为托宾税能够给予重击的对象），而在于金融市场上所有人同时对他们进行了价值重估。


That left the financial institutions that held mortgage-backed securities in much weaker condition, and several failed.	这使得持有按揭支持证券的金融机构一下子陷入了疲软的状况，有不少还因此倒闭了。


At the time of the crisis itself, however, the main problem was not too much trading, but too little, as liquidity dried up for many financial transactions.	但是，就危机发生本身而言，主要问题不是交易过度，而是因大量金融交易的流动性枯竭而导致的交易不足。


Still, in one area, a Tobin tax could provide an unmitigated benefit.	但是，在一个领域，托宾税可以带来十足的好处。


Many of the largest, most precarious financial institutions now finance themselves via repo: they buy a long-term security (often government debt) and sell it, promising to buy it back the next day for a slightly higher price.	许多大型危险金融机构现在正在使用回购协议来为自己融资：它们买入长期债券（通常是国债）并出售，承诺第二天以略高的价格回购。


Dampening the repo market could be economically useful, because this funding has proven to be unstable: Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers used repo heavily in ways that made them unable to withstand investment reversals elsewhere in their business.	抑制回购市场是划算的，因为这种融资手段已被证明是不稳定的：贝尔斯登和雷曼兄弟都极度依赖回购协议，以至于它们无法接受其他业务上的投资被撤销的冲击。


The same was true of MF Holdings last fall.	去年秋天，曼氏金融也重蹈了这一覆辙。


Stronger, longer-term financing might have allowed these firms to survive.	更健康、更长期的融资或许可以让这些公司免于倒闭。


If a Tobin tax induced financial institutions to finance themselves with more longer-term debt and less overnight repo, it could play a significant stabilizing role.	如果托宾税能促使金融机构更多地用长期债务、更少地用隔夜回购来为自己融资，那么可以起到重要的稳定作用。


While it is well known that a Tobin tax would have little effect on markets unless all major financial centers adopted it, what is true of markets is not necessarily true of financial institutions.	除非所有重要金融中心都引入托宾税，否则托宾税就不会起到什么效果，这一点早已众所周知，尽管如此，对市场来说正确的东西对金融机构来说未必正确。


If, say, French President Sarkozy wanted to stop too-big-to-fail French financial institutions from transacting in ways that weaken them, a Tobin tax on their transactions, wherever in the world they occurred, could work; the tax would affect the institutions, even if it could not shape world-wide markets.	比如，如果法国总统萨科齐希望大而不能倒的法国金融机构停止以有害方式进行金融交易，那么对它们课以托宾税将起到效果，不管世界其他地方如何做； 即使托宾税不能影响全球市场，也能够影响金融机构。


To be sure, markets might move those transactions from France and from French financial institutions, and, if the regulators erred – because the business was profitable and not destabilizing – French institutions would lose out.	当然，市场可以将这些交易移出法国和法国金融机构，而如果是监管者错了——这一业务有利可图而且并不影响稳定——那么法国机构将蒙受损失。


But, if the regulators were right, the French institutions would be more stable.	但是，如果监管者是对的，那么法国金融机构将变得更加稳定。


If the Tobin tax aims to strengthen institutions (instead of altering markets), it could bite hard, even without the buy-in of every major country.	如果托宾税的目标是增强金融机构（而不是改变市场），其效果将更加明显，就算并非所有大国就采用它也是如此。


Overall, there is not much to be said against the tax (other than what is said against all taxes), and something to be said for it.	总而言之，除了反对一切税收都适用的理由外，没有反对托宾税的特别理由，但支持托宾税的理由有不少。


But it does not help to solve major financial problems, and those that it does address (short-term, overnight financing) could be dealt with more directly, with a more focused tax, better rules governing those transactions, and improved prudential regulation.	但是，托宾税��不能解决主要金融问题，而它所能解决的问题（短期隔夜融资问题）能够用更具定向性的税收、更好的交易治理规则和更佳的审慎监管给予更直接的解决。


As of now, Europe’s Tobin tax proposals are not well targeted.	到目前为止，欧洲托宾税方案不具有很好的定向性。


Sound transactions would be taxed along with destabilizing, overnight financing of fragile financial institutions.	良性的交易将与具有破坏性的金融机构隔夜融资交易一道被征税。


A Tobin tax does, however, allow elected politicians to look like they are doing something useful – which they are, but without addressing more serious economic problems.	但是，托宾税确实能够让当选政客摆出干了实事的模样——他们确实干了实事，但这个实事并不能解决最严重的经济问题。


South Africa’s Winnable AIDS Battle	南非可以获胜的艾滋病战役


ERFURT – In the battle against HIV/AIDS, South Africa was for many years the perfect example of what not to do.	爱尔福特——在对抗艾滋病毒/艾滋病的战斗中，南非多年来一直是各种禁忌的代名词。


Until recently, the government’s response to the epidemic, which threatened the country’s very lifeblood, was lackluster and foolish.	就在不久前，政府对威胁到国家根本命脉的疫情的应对之策还是平庸和愚蠢的。


But rising pressure over the past two decades – from civil-society groups, the media, and more enlightened politicians – is finally showing results.	但20年来民间团体、媒体和开明政治家日渐加大的压力终于取得了成果。


A disease that has inflicted profound social and economic pain, and dramatically reduced life expectancy, appears to be in retreat.	这种造成深刻社会经济痛苦、显著缩短寿命的疾病似乎在节节败退。


But a new UN report suggests that South Africa’s battle against the virus is far from over.	但新发布的联合国报告表明南非与艾滋病毒的斗争还远未结束。


The country has the world’s most severe HIV problem, with some 5.6 million citizens – more than 10% of the population – currently living with the virus.	全世界就属这里的艾滋病问题最为严重，约有560万人（超过总人口的10%）现在感染了艾滋病毒。


Every year, around 300,000 new infections, and 270,000 AIDS-related deaths, are recorded.	每年会出现约300,000个新增病例，因艾滋病相关原因丧命的达到270,000人。


HIV/AIDS patients are also prone to other infections: an estimated 70% of South Africans with AIDS also contract tuberculosis, while half of those carrying the HIV virus are expected to do so during their lifetime.	病毒携带者/艾滋病患者也容易感染其他疾病：估计70%的南非艾滋病患者同时感染肺结核，而半数病毒携带者在一生中会有感染肺结核的经历。


Worse, a third of pregnant women – a highly AIDS-prone demographic – have been diagnosed with the virus, which can be passed on to their babies during childbirth.	更可怕的是，三分之一的孕妇（艾滋病毒的高度易感群体）被确诊为病毒感染，而病毒可以在分娩过程中传染给新生儿。


The ferociousness of the disease, and the speed at which it spread, took many South Africans by surprise.	艾滋病来势汹汹及其传染速度让很多南非人意想不到。


As in developed countries, HIV infections initially were concentrated among hemophiliacs, sexually active gay men, and intravenous drug users.	像发达国家一样，艾滋病毒感染最初集中在血友病患者、性活跃同性恋者以及静脉注射吸毒人员中。


But, during the 1990’s, and for reasons that are still not fully understood, the virus exploded into the general population.	但20世纪90年代某种未知原因导致公众病毒感染率暴增。


The number of infected South Africans (equivalent to the population of Denmark) outstrips that of neighboring Mozambique, Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe combined.	被病毒感染的南非民众数量（相当于丹麦��国人口）超过了相邻莫桑比克、莱索托、博茨瓦纳、纳米比亚、斯威士兰和津巴布韦的总和。


Yet, incredibly, the rapid spread of HIV and the rising toll of AIDS-related deaths failed to galvanize the country’s post-apartheid leaders, especially former President Thabo Mbeki, into meaningful action.	但令人难以置信的是，艾滋病毒的迅速蔓延和艾滋病死亡人数不断增加并未刺激南非后种族隔离时代领导人，特别是前总统塔博·姆贝基采取有意义的行动。


For years, the top ranks of the governing Africa National Congress seemed to be in denial over the pervasiveness of HIV/AIDS and how best to combat it.	多年来执政非国大的最高领导人似乎不愿承认艾滋病毒/艾滋病的普遍流行，并拒绝采取针对性行动。


Civil-society organizations were not so complacent, using the courts, the media, and civil disobedience to lobby for change.	但民间社会组织并没有这样自以为是，他们利用法院、媒体和公民非暴力反抗组织来争取改变。


Although contradictory views about how to treat HIV persisted, at least antiretroviral therapy has been available in some public facilities over the past decade.	虽然艾滋病毒治疗领域仍然存在矛盾的观点，但十年来至少抗逆转录病毒疗法已经在某些公共设施得到应用。


But a more coherent and consistent approach evolved following the appointment of Aaron Motsoaledi as Minister of Health in 2009.	但2009年阿伦·莫索阿莱迪任卫生部长后所采用的方法更具有连贯性。


The South African National Department of Health and private health-care providers now report that conditions are no longer so desperate.	南非国家卫生部及私人医疗保健机构现在报告的情况已经不那么令人绝望。 三种方法共同遏止了艾滋病的蔓延：由政府及捐助机构提供的抗逆转录病毒疗法；


Three approaches have helped to contain the spread: the provision of antiretroviral therapy by the government and donor agencies; better treatment of tuberculosis patients, who tend to contract HIV/AIDS as well; and a greatly expanded program to prevent mother-to-child transmission.	更好地治疗肺结核患者（往往也是艾滋病携带者/艾滋病患者）； 以及大力推广艾滋病预防计划，遏制艾滋病毒的母婴传播。


These remedies have reduced the rate of new infections (though the total number of people living with HIV, especially aged 15-49, continues to rise).	这些措施控制了新增感染率（虽然艾滋病毒携带者总数，尤其是15-49岁的携带者人数仍然持续上升）。


With almost two million patients now on antiretroviral treatment, annual AIDS-related deaths have fallen by around 100,000 since 2005.	目前有近200万人接受抗逆转录病毒治疗，因此年均艾滋病相关死亡人数在2005年后已经下降了约100,000人。


Contagion among newborn babies, once running at around 70,000 per year, have been cut by some 63%, and the lives of millions of HIV/AIDS sufferers have been prolonged.	新生儿感染曾高达每年70,000例，现在已经降低了63%，延长了数百万艾滋病毒携带者/艾滋病患者的生命。


Another important factor has been better integration of treatment plans.	更好地整合治疗计划是另一个重要因素。


The government has aligned its early antiretroviral treatment programs for existing sufferers, initiated in 2008, with early monitoring programs for pregnant women.	政府已统一调配针对现有患者的早期抗逆转录病毒治疗计划和针对孕妇的早期监控计划。


New, more effective treatment to prevent tuberculosis, especially the multidrug-resistant strains, has also helped.	预防肺结核，特别是对多种药物产生耐药性菌株的全新有效疗法效果也非常显著。


More can and must be done.	我们可以而且必须采取新的举措。


Newborn infections, for example, could be further reduced by encouraging more pregnant mothers to visit health clinics for early monitoring and for checkups after delivery.	比方说，可以通过鼓励更多怀孕妈妈到诊所进行早期检测及分娩后检查来进一步降低新生儿感染率。


But progress to date should be acknowledged, if not celebrated.	即使不庆祝迄今为止取得的进展，至少也应该表示认可。


The recent successes demonstrate that with political will and sufficient resources, even the greatest of scourges can be beaten – a lesson not only for South Africa but also for countries elsewhere in Africa and the developing world.	最近的成就表明只要具备政治意愿和足够的资源，就能打败哪怕是最可怕的洪水猛兽——不仅南非应该记住这一点，非洲其他国家和发展中国家也同样应该记住。


Tocqueville’s Lessons in Democracy	托克维克有关民主的教诲


It seems appropriate that, due to the Iraq war, the world has been debating the nature of democracy 200 years after Alexis de Tocqueville’s birth.	托克维克出生200年后，世界由于伊拉克战争而就民主的性质展开辩论，这看起来合乎时宜。


Tocqueville is justly famous for rejecting reactionary nostalgia and regarding democracy’s triumph as our destiny, while warning against the dangers that democracy holds for liberty.	托克维克拒绝反动的恋旧，认为我们注定会获得民主的胜利，同时又警告民主对自由构成危险。 他因此理所当然地闻名于世。


Should we still share his worries?	我们如今是否依然应当像他那样担心呢？


Tocqueville viewed democracy not only as a political regime, but, above all, as an intellectual regime that shapes a society’s customs in general, thereby giving it a sociological and psychological dimension.	托克维克认为民主不仅仅是一种政治制度，而首先是一种在总体上划定社会习惯的智识制度，因此也就具备社会和心理特性。


Democratic regimes, Tocqueville argued, determine our thoughts, desires, and passions.	托克维克主张，民主制度决定我们的思想、欲望和激情。


Just as there was Renaissance man and, in the twentieth century, homo sovieticus, “democratic man” is a form of human being.	正如先前文艺复兴式的博学之人以及二十世纪的苏维埃人种，“民主人种”也是人种之一。


For Tocqueville, democracy’s systemic effects could lead citizens to deprive themselves of reasoned thought.	就托克维尔而言，民主的体制性影响可能导致公民剥夺自身的理性思索。


They could only pretend to judge events and values on their own; in reality, they would merely copy the rough and simplified opinions of the masses.	他们只能假装对事件和价值观作出自我判断； 而实际上，他们仅仅是复制大众的粗糙而简化的观点。


Indeed, what Tocqueville called the hold of “social power” on opinion is probably strongest in democratic regimes – a view that foretells the growth of modern-day demagogy and media manipulation.	确实，托克维尔所称的“社会力量”对于观点的控制在民主制度中可能最为强劲。 他的这一观点预言了当代蛊惑人心和媒体操纵的增长。


Tocqueville believed that there are no effective long-term constraints on this tendency.	托克维尔相信，对于这一趋势没有有效的长期性制约。


Neither local democracy nor small societies, neither governmental checks and balances nor civil rights, can prevent the decline of critical thought that democracy seems to cause.	地方民主或小型社会、政府制衡机制或民权等都无法防止看似由民主所造成的思辨衰落。


Schools have the power to be little more than enclaves from the corrosive strength of social influences on how the mind works.	学校的力量只不过是社会影响人们思考方式腐蚀性力量之外的飞地而已。


Similarly, while Tocqueville thought that pursuing virtue as the ancients did, or having a religious faith, could sometimes elevate the soul, both conflict with the democratic ideal if they become officially prescribed in public life.	同理，托克维尔认为像古人一般追求美德或者宗教信仰或许有时可以升华灵魂，但是如果二者在公共生活中得以正是规定，那么他们就会与民主理想发生冲突。


In this sense, Tocqueville’s intellectual heirs include the neo-Marxist theorists of the Frankfurt School, as well as Hannah Arendt, all of whom feared above all the disintegration of reason in modern societies.	在这一意义上，托克维尔的理论继承人包括法兰克福学派的新马克思主义理论家，以及汉娜·阿伦特。 他们所有人最担心的就是现代社会中理性的解体。


Indeed, the French philosopher Marcel Gauchet entitled a recent book Democracy Against Itself.	实际上，法国哲学家马塞尔·高谢给最近的一部著作起名为《自我矛盾的民主》。


The democratic way of life, these writers argue, tends to destroy original thought and to suppress “high” culture, yielding a mediocrity that leaves citizens vulnerable to democracy’s enemies.	这些作家们认为，民主的生活方式趋向于摧毁原创性思维并且压制文化中的阳春白雪，造成平庸，从而使得公民受到民主的敌人们的蛊惑。


But, while history is replete with murderous regimes applauded by cowed and deceived masses, the greater risk for democratic nations is that their citizens withdraw into apathy and short-term thinking for immediate gratification.	但是，尽管历史充满了得到怯懦和受骗大众拥戴的杀戮性政权，民主国家更大的风险则是其公民退回到无动于衷以及为了当下的满足所进行的急功近利式的思考。


The past – despite rituals that seek to commemorate historic moments – is obliterated by an addiction to the now and the new.	尽管还有纪念历史性时刻的仪式，但是对现在和新事物的沉迷抹销了历史。


Even the supposedly well-educated ruling class is subject to this bewitchment.	甚至连那些理应受过良好教育的统治精英阶层也受制于这一蛊惑。


The essential problem of the democratic mind is its lack of historical consciousness.	民主头脑的根本性问题在于缺乏历史意识。


Do the defects of democracy really mean, as Tocqueville claimed, that resigned pessimism is the only – realistic but unsustainable – path open to us?	民主的缺失是否真的像托克维尔所说的那样意味着，唯一现实而无法持续的道路就只有无可奈何的悲观主义呢？


I don’t think so.	我不敢苟同。


There are means to fight against what might be called today’s growing “democratic stupidity.”	与被称之为当今不断增长的“民主愚蠢”斗争还是有办法的。


The first defense is to push for an educational system that really forms critical minds, namely through the (nowadays) largely neglected subjects of literature, history, and philosophy.	最先的防护就是推动确实形成思辨性头脑的教育制度，也就是通过现金基本上被忽略的文学、历史以及哲学课程做到这一点。


If the informed and critical citizenry that democracy requires is to be formed, our schools must stop pandering to the latest popular fads and begin to sharpen the analytical capacities of students.	如果要形成民主所需要的消息灵通而又思辨的公民，我们的学校必须停止低下地迎合最新流行时尚并且开始加强学生的分析能力。


The biggest impediment to such an education are the mass media, with its tendency to cultivate superficiality and amusement.	这一教育的最大阻碍是趋向于培育肤浅和娱乐的大众媒体。


Many people nowadays spend more of their lives watching television than they do in classrooms.	现在许多人花在看电视上的时间要多于在课堂里的时间。


The passivity that mass media encourages is the polar opposite of the active engagement that democratic citizens need.	大众媒体所倡导的消极状态正是民主公民所需要的积极参与的对立面。


But it is hard to imagine that the mass media (other than quality newspapers) would, of their own volition, become instruments of an education that enhances citizens’ critical capacities.	但是，很难想象大众媒体（而非严肃报纸）自愿成为提升公民思辨能力的教育工具。


This concern about mass media is no mere elitist scorn for popular culture.	这一对大众媒体的担忧并非仅仅是精英阶层鄙视流行文化。


The question is not one of popularity alone – after all, Mozart was popular in his day, and Shakespeare’s plays attracted the poor as well as the rich – but of mass culture’s refusal to challenge and provoke.	毕竟，莫扎特在世的时候广受欢迎，而莎士比亚的戏剧既吸引富人也吸引穷人。 问题并非在于流行，而是大众文化拒绝挑战和挑衅固有观念。


The result of the failure is a generalized indifference and passivity in audiences.	它们做不到这一点的结果就是受众的整体性无动于衷和消极。


Indeed, for a long time a globalized media culture, one unable to inspire the capacity for critical thought or create elevated feelings, has been on the rise.	的确，长期以来，无法激发思辨能力或创造升华情感的全球化媒体文化一直大行其道。


It is a culture that, through its carelessness, threatens democratic freedom because it fails to create any sense of obligation – to society, to history, to community.	这一文化通过其毫不在乎威胁到民主性自由，因为它未能创造任何对于社会、历史和社区的责任感。


Is it too late to do anything about a culture that so deadens the spirit?	对这一破坏精神的文化采取行动是否为时已晚了呢？


Tocqueville despised the elites of his time for their complacency in the face of the deracinating force of mass democracy.	托克维尔时代的精英在大众民主釜底抽薪的力量面前自满，他对此嗤之以鼻。


Will the myopia of our leaders also serve as an agent of his disquieting prophecy?	我们的领导人的短视是否也会成为其令人不安的预言的媒介呢？


To Cure the Economy	怎样治疗经济


NEW YORK – As the economic slump that began in 2007 persists, the question on everyone’s minds is obvious: Why?	纽约——2007年开始的经济衰退还在继续，每个人的脑海中都有这样一个问题：为什么？


Unless we have a better understanding of the causes of the crisis, we can’t implement an effective recovery strategy.	除非我们能够很好地理解这次危机的原因，否则就不可能拿出有效的复苏战略。


And, so far, we have neither.	可是，到目前为止，我们两样都没能做到。


We were told that this was a financial crisis, so governments on both sides of the Atlantic focused on the banks.	我们被告知，这是一次金融危机，因此大西洋两岸的政府均把注意力集中在了银行上。


Stimulus programs were sold as being a temporary palliative, needed to bridge the gap until the financial sector recovered and private lending resumed.	刺激计划作为暂时药方大行其道，要到金融部门复苏、私人贷款重现活力才会收回。


But, while bank profitability and bonuses have returned, lending has not recovered, despite record-low long- and short-term interest rates.	但是，银行利润和奖金早已恢复了原状，贷款却没有复苏，即使是创纪录的长期和短期利率也没能让贷款活跃起来。


The banks claim that lending remains constrained by a shortage of creditworthy borrowers, owing to the sick economy.	银行声称贷款行为依然受到缺乏信誉良好借款人的约束，而后者又是拜萎靡的经济所赐。


And key data indicate that they are at least partly right.	关键数据显示，它们这么说不无道理。


After all, large enterprises are sitting on a few trillion dollars in cash, so money is not what is holding them back from investing and hiring.	毕竟，大企业无不手握万亿美元现金，因此钱并不是让它们不愿投资和雇佣工人的原因。


Some, perhaps many, small businesses are, however, in a very different position; strapped for funds, they can’t grow, and many are being forced to contract.	但是，有些（可能是很多）小企业的境况就大不相同了，它们饱受资金缺乏困扰，无法成长，不少还被迫收缩规模。


Still, overall, business investment – excluding construction – has returned to 10% of GDP (from 10.6% before the crisis).	此外，总的来说，商业投资（除建筑投资以外）占GDP的比重已经回到了10%（危机前是10. 6%）。


With so much excess capacity in real estate, confidence will not recover to its pre-crisis level anytime soon, regardless of what is done to the banking sector.	在房地产业存在大量过剩产能的情况下，信心不可能迅速恢复到危机前水平，不管我们对银行部门施以什么措施。


The financial sector’s inexcusable recklessness, given free rein by mindless deregulation, was the obvious precipitating factor of the crisis.	由于愚蠢的去监管化政策，金融部门得以随心所欲，因此出现了不可原谅的轻率鲁莽。


The legacy of excess real-estate capacity and over-leveraged households makes recovery all the more difficult.	显然，这是引爆危机的一大主因。 房地产业产能过剩和家庭过度负债的余波让复苏难上加难。


But the economy was very sick before the crisis; the housing bubble merely papered over its weaknesses.	但经济在危机前就已经非常疲软； 只是被房地产泡沫掩盖了。


Without bubble-supported consumption, there would have been a massive shortfall in aggregate demand.	如果没有泡沫支持的消费，总需求就会出现非常大的短缺。


Instead, the personal saving rate plunged to 1%, and the bottom 80% of Americans were spending, every year, roughly 110% of their income.	与此相对的是个人储蓄率跌至1%，且收入较低的80%美国人每年的消费额是他们的收入的110%。


Even if the financial sector were fully repaired, and even if these profligate Americans hadn’t learned a lesson about the importance of saving, their consumption would be limited to 100% of their income.	即使金融部门完全恢复元气，即使这些奢华浪费的美国人不从中领悟储蓄的重要性，他们的消费也将被限制在收入的100%以内。


So anyone who talks about the consumer “coming back” – even after deleveraging – is living in a fantasy world.	因此任何关于消费者“归来”的言论——即使指的是去杠杆化之后——都是痴人说梦。


Fixing the financial sector was necessary for economic recovery, but far from sufficient.	修复金融部门是经济复苏的必要条件，但远不是充分条件。


To understand what needs to be done, we have to understand the economy’s problems before the crisis hit.	为了明白我们需要做什么，就必须理解经济在危机袭来之前存在什么问题。


First, America and the world were victims of their own success.	首先，美国和全世界成了自身成功的受害者。


Rapid productivity increases in manufacturing had outpaced growth in demand, which meant that manufacturing employment decreased.	制造业生产力的快速上升超过了需求的增加，这意味着制造业就业量的下滑。


Labor had to shift to services.	劳动力必须转移到服务业中去。


The problem is analogous to that which arose at the beginning of the twentieth century, when rapid productivity growth in agriculture forced labor to move from rural areas to urban manufacturing centers.	这一问题与20世纪初的问题非常相似，当时，农业生产力的快速增长将劳动力从农村地区逐出，驱赶到城镇制造业中心。


With a decline in farm income in excess of 50% from 1929 to 1932, one might have anticipated massive migration.	1929—1932年，农业收入下降了50%以上，你可能会认为这会导致大规模移民。


But workers were “trapped” in the rural sector: they didn’t have the resources to move, and their declining incomes so weakened aggregate demand that urban/manufacturing unemployment soared.	但工人被“困”在了农业部门：他们没有迁徙的本钱，同时，下降的收入大大恶化了总需求，以至于城镇/制造业失业率也出现了飙升。


For America and Europe, the need for labor to move out of manufacturing is compounded by shifting comparative advantage: not only is the total number of manufacturing jobs limited globally, but a smaller share of those jobs will be local.	在美国和欧洲，劳动力从制造业中流出的需要产生于比较优势的变化：制造业岗位总数有限是个全球性问题，但比重下降却只限于国内。


Globalization has been one, but only one, of the factors contributing to the second key problem – growing inequality.	全球化是造成第二个问题——不平等性增加——的因素之一（但不是唯一因素）。


Shifting income from those who would spend it to those who won’t lowers aggregate demand.	收入从会花钱的人那里转移到了不会花钱的人手中，这拉低了总需求。


By the same token, soaring energy prices shifted purchasing power from the United States and Europe to oil exporters, who, recognizing the volatility of energy prices, rightly saved much of this income.	同理，能源价格上涨把购买力从美国和欧洲转移到了原油出口国，而后者意识到能源价格的波动性，自然会将大量收入储蓄起来。


The final problem contributing to weakness in global aggregate demand was emerging markets’ massive buildup of foreign-exchange reserves – partly motivated by the mismanagement of the 1997-98 East Asia crisis by the International Monetary Fund and the US Treasury.	造成全球总需求疲软的最后一个问题是新兴市场囤积了大量的外汇储备——部分是���为1997—98年东亚危机期间IMF和美国财政部治理不善造成的。


Countries recognized that without reserves, they risked losing their economic sovereignty.	东亚国家认定，没有储备，就会带来失去经济主权的危险。


Many said, “Never again.”	很多人说“绝不一错再错”。


But, while the buildup of reserves – currently around $7.6 trillion in emerging and developing economies – protected them, money going into reserves was money not spent.	但是，囤积储备——新兴和发展中经济体当前的外汇储备大约为6. 7万亿美元——固然能够保护它们，流入储备的钱却是花不掉的。


Where are we today in addressing these underlying problems?	眼下，能够做些什么来修正基础性问题呢？


To take the last one first, those countries that built up large reserves were able to weather the economic crisis better, so the incentive to accumulate reserves is even stronger.	先说最后一个问题。 囤积了大量储备的国家能够更好地抵御经济危机，因此囤积储备的激励会被进一步强化。


Similarly, while bankers have regained their bonuses, workers are seeing their wages eroded and their hours diminished, further widening the income gap.	同理，尽管银行奖金已经回到了原来的水平，但员工仍在工资下降和工时缩短的困境中挣扎，这进一步拉大了收入差距。


Moreover, the US has not shaken off its dependence on oil.	此外，美国也没能摆脱原油依赖。


With oil prices back above $100 a barrel this summer – and still high – money is once again being transferred to the oil-exporting countries.	今年夏天，原油价格再一次回到了100美元/桶上方（现在也维持在很高的水平），钱又一次流向了原油出口国。


And the structural transformation of the advanced economies, implied by the need to move labor out of traditional manufacturing branches, is occurring very slowly.	而发达经济体的结构调整——拜劳动力从传统制造业流出所赐——进展十分缓慢。


Government plays a central role in financing the services that people want, like education and health care.	政府在为人民需要的服务（比如教育和医疗）提供资金方面扮演着中心角色。


And government-financed education and training, in particular, will be critical in restoring competitiveness in Europe and the US.	而政府出资的教育和培训对重塑欧洲和美国竞争力又是至关重要的关键因素。


But both have chosen fiscal austerity, all but ensuring that their economies’ transitions will be slow.	但欧洲和美国都选择了财政紧缩，这将使经济转型进程更加缓慢。


The prescription for what ails the global economy follows directly from the diagnosis: strong government expenditures, aimed at facilitating restructuring, promoting energy conservation, and reducing inequality, and a reform of the global financial system that creates an alternative to the buildup of reserves.	全球经济病痛的药方必须参照诊断才下得出：一是以有利结构调整、促进能源节省和消除不平等性为目标的大规模政府支出； 二是能为囤积储备创造替代方案的全球金融体系改革。


Eventually, the world’s leaders – and the voters who elect them – will come to recognize this.	最后，世界领导人——以及选择他们的选民——终究会认识到这一点。


As growth prospects continue to weaken, they will have no choice.	随着增长前景的继续恶化，我们别无选择。


But how much pain will we have to bear in the meantime?	但在此期间我们还要遭受多大的苦难？


Today’s Counter-Enlightenment	今天的反启蒙潮流


Not long ago, one might have concluded that, at least in Europe, there were no taboos left.	不久以前，人们可能认为，至少在欧洲已经没有了任何禁忌。


A process that had begun with the Enlightenment had now reached the point at which “anything goes.”	始于启蒙运动的进程如今已经发展到“破除任何禁忌”的程度。


Particularly in the arts, there were no apparent limits to showing what even a generation ago would have been regarded as highly offensive.	特别是在艺术领域，即使在表现被上一辈人视为极端无礼的事物时，也已经没有明显的限度。


Two generations ago, most countries had censors who not only tried to prevent younger people from seeing certain films but who actually banned books.	在上上辈人所生活的年代，多数国家的审查制度不仅不允许年轻人观看某些电影，甚至禁止某些图书的出版。


Since the 1960’s, such proscriptions have weakened until, in the end, explicit sexuality, violence, blasphemy – while upsetting to some people – were tolerated as a part of the enlightened world.	20世纪60年代后，这种侵犯人权的监管力度不断减弱，直到最后，尽管赤裸裸的色情、暴力和亵渎让部分民众大倒胃口¾但却作为启蒙世界的组成部分仍然被允许存在。


Or were they?	事实真是这样吗？


Are there really no limits?	是否真的不再有任何限度？


Outside Europe, the “anything goes” attitude was never fully accepted.	在欧洲以外，“破除任何禁忌”的态度从未被人们彻底接受。


And there were limits in Europe, too.	在欧洲内部也同样存在着界限。


The historian David Irving is still in detention in Austria for the crime of Holocaust denial.	历史学家戴维·欧文（David Irving）仍然因否认大屠杀的罪行被奥地利关押。


This is, to be sure, a special case.	这肯定是个特殊的案例。


The denial of a well-documented truth may lead to new crimes.	否认有史料记载的事实真相可能会导致新的犯罪。


But is the answer to the old question, “What is truth?” always so clear?	但对“真相是什么”这一老生常谈问题的答案是否总是那样清晰无误？


What exactly are we doing if we insist on Turkey’s acknowledgement that the Armenian genocide did take place as a condition of its membership in the European Union?	如果我们坚持把承认“曾对亚美尼亚人开展种族灭绝”作为土耳其加入欧盟的先决条件，我们是否清楚自己究竟在做些什么？


Are we so sure of Darwin’s theories of evolution that we should ban alternative notions of genesis from schools?	我们是否真对达尔文的进化论有着如此的把握，以致于一定要禁止在学校里讲授其他有关人类起源的学说？


Those concerned with freedom of speech have always wondered about its limits.	言论自由的关注者一直在思考这项自由的限度，限度之一是不能引发暴力。


One such limit is the incitement to violence.	如果有人在人满为患的剧院里站起来大喊一声“着火了！


The man who gets up in a crowded theater and shouts, “Fire!” when there is none is guilty of what happens in the resulting stampede.	”，但实际根本没有着火，那他就要对人们在受到惊吓逃跑时所发生的意外负责。


But what if there actually is a fire?	但如果确实发生了火灾又该怎么办呢？


This is the context in which we may see the invasion of Islamic taboos into the enlightened, mostly non-Islamic world.	正是在这种情况下，伊斯兰的禁忌可能会侵入受到启蒙的多数非伊斯兰国家。


From the fatwa on Salman Rushdie for The Satanic Verses to the killing of a nun in Somalia in response to Pope Benedict’s Regensburg lecture and the Berlin Opera’s cancellation of a performance of Mozart’s Idomeneo , with its severed heads of religious founders, including Muhammad, we have seen violence and intimidation used to defend a particular religion’s taboos.	从《撒旦诗篇》引发伊斯兰世界对 萨尔曼·拉什迪（ Salman Rushdie）的判决，到 教皇本尼迪克特在雷根斯堡的演讲造成索马里修女被害，以及柏林歌剧院取消莫扎特歌剧《伊多梅纽斯》（ Idomeneo） 的演出，随着包括穆罕默德在内的宗教创始人身首异处，我们所看到的是捍卫特定宗教禁忌的暴力和威胁。


There are questions here that are not easily answered by civilized defenders of the Enlightenment.	的确有些问题让启蒙运动文明的捍卫者难以回答。


Toleration and respect for people who have their own beliefs are right and perhaps necessary to preserve an enlightened world.	容忍和尊敬拥有独特宗教信仰的人不仅正确，而且对捍卫文明世界很有必要。


But there is the other side to consider.	但我们还要看到另外一面。


Violent responses to unwelcome views are never justified and cannot be accepted.	用暴力回应不受欢迎的观点永远不是正义之举，永远也无法为人们所接受。


Those who argue that suicide bombers express understandable grudges have themselves sold out their freedom.	那些声称自杀性袭击者表达不满的方式可以理解的人自己就出卖了自己的自由。


Self-censorship is worse than censorship itself, because it sacrifices freedom voluntarily.	自我审查远比外力审查更为可怕，因为它心甘情愿地把自由当成了牺牲品。


This means that we have to defend Salman Rushdie and the Danish cartoonists and the friends of Idomeneo , whether we like them or not.	这也就是说无论乐意与否，我们都必须捍卫 萨尔曼·拉什迪、丹麦漫画家和《伊多梅纽斯》的支持者。


If anyone does not like them, there are all the instruments of public debate and of critical discourse that an enlightened community has at its disposal.	不喜欢它们的人完全可以通过文明社会公开辩论和批评演说的方式来表达自己的观点。


It is also true that we do not have to buy any particular book or listen to an opera.	还有一点千真万确，那就是我们不需要购买任何一本书，也不需要聆听任何一场歌剧。


What a poor world it would be if anything that might offend any group could no longer be said!	如果可能冒犯集团利益的任何观点都必须三缄其口，这个世界将变得多么悲哀！


A multicultural society that accepts every taboo of its diverse groups would have little to talk about.	接受不同集团所有禁忌的多元化社会将很难再找到可以谈论的话题。


The kind of reaction we have seen recently to expressions of views that are offensive to some does not bode well for the future of liberty.	对自由的未来来讲，我们近来看到的对可能冒犯某些人的观点所采取的行动并不是个好兆头。


It is as if a new wave of counter-enlightenment is sweeping the world, with the most restrictive views dominating the scene.	新一轮的反文明浪潮似乎席卷了整个世界，限制最多的观点却似乎稳稳占据了上风。


Against such reactions, enlightened views must be reasserted strongly.	我们必须反对这样的做法，坚定地强调文明的价值观。


Defending the right of all people to say things even if one detests their views is one of the first principles of liberty.	即使不赞成他们的观点，也要捍卫所有人表达观点的自由，这就是自由的首要原则。


Thus, Idomeneo must be performed, and Salman Rushdie must be published.	因此， 《伊多梅纽斯》必须上演，萨尔曼·拉什迪的著作也必须出版。


Whether an editor publishes cartoons offensive to believers in Muhammad (or Christ, for that matter) is a matter of judgment, almost of taste.	编辑是否出版了冒犯穆罕默德（或耶稣基督）信徒的漫画只是个人判断，甚至是好恶问题。


I might not do it, but I would nevertheless defend the right of someone who decides otherwise.	我也许不会那么做，但无论如何我也会捍卫决定这么做的人所应该拥有的权利。


It is debatable whether recent incidents of this kind require a “dialogue between religions.” Public debate making clear cases one way or the other seems more appropriate than conciliation.	最近发生的类似事件是否需要“宗教间对话”还可以进一步探讨，无论持何种观点，公众辩论都比单纯的忍让显得更加妥当。


The gains of enlightened discourse are too precious to be turned into negotiable values.	文明探讨的收获太过珍贵，绝不能因为似是而非的价值观而做出牺牲。


Defending those gains is the task that we now face.	捍卫这种收获是我们当前必须完成的任务。


To Err is Science	科学就是要允许犯错误


Until now, discovery was often considered the main goal of medical science.	迄今为止，新的发现经常被当作是医学的主要目标。


But nowadays discovery is almost too easy.	但是今天要取得新的发现实在是太容易了。


Anyone with a little funding and a few biological specimens in a refrigerator can make thousands of postulated “discoveries.”	任何人只要有一点点资金以及冰箱里存放着一些生物标本就能够取得数以千计的所谓的“发现”。


Indeed, the number of research questions that we can pose is increasing exponentially.	事实上，我们可以提出来的研究课题正以指数级的速度增长着。


Medical kits the size of a thumbnail can measure a million different biological factors on an individual with an infinitesimal amount of blood.	像一片指甲那么大的医学元件可以根据极少量的血测量出一个人一百万个不同的生物元素。


A million research questions can be asked on the spot.	由此马上可以提出一百万个研究课题。


But even with proper statistical testing, many tens of thousands of these biological factors may seem to be important due to mere chance.	但是即便凭借正确的统计试验，几万生物元素会只是出于偶然而似乎显得很重要。


Only a handful of them really will be.	然而其中只有很少一些是真正重要的。


The vast majority of these initial research claims would yield only spurious findings.	绝大部分这些初始的研究只会带来虚假的发现。


So the main issue nowadays is to validate “discoveries” by replicating them under different settings.	所以今天的主要课题是通过在不同的环境下重复这些“发现”来证明它们是否是正确的。


Several different teams of researchers need to see them “work” again and again using common rules.	需要有几个不同的研究小组运用通常的规则来一次又一次地证实它们是“成立”的。


Moreover, all the teams should agree not to select and report only the data that seem most impressive.	此外，所有的研究小组都必须同意不会只选择和报告那些看上去最吸引人的数据。


With selective reporting, we would end up with a long list of all the false discoveries made across all research teams, with only a few true findings buried among this pile of non-replicated waste.	如果只是加以选择地报告的话，那么我们最后只能得到由所有研究小组所发表的一长串完全错误的发现，而很少一些真正的成果却被淹没在这堆无法被重复的废物中。


In fact, empirical data suggest the significance of this danger.	事实上，根据以往的经验我们可以认识到这种危险是非常大的。


In a paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association published in July 2005, I showed that refutation is very common, even for the most prestigious research findings.	2005年7月我在《美国医学协会期刊》上发表了一篇文章，指出即便是看上去最受人尊敬的研究发现也会经常被人驳倒。


I examined the 45 clinical research findings that had received the greatest recognition in the scientific world, as documented by the number of times other scientists had cited them over the last 15 years.	这是我在研究了在科学界中受到最广泛认同的45个临床研究成果后得出的结论，它们在过去15年间被其他科学家引用的次数最多。


Even with the most robust types of research – for example, randomized clinical trials – one of four of these results had already been found to be wrong or potentially exaggerated within a few years after publication.	即便是最最可靠的研究，比如说随机的临床试验也有四分之一的研究结果在被发表数年后被发现是错误的或者被潜在地夸大了。


For epidemiology (e.g. studies on vitamins, diet, or hormones in terms of their association with health outcomes in the general population), four-fifths of the most prestigious findings were rapidly contradicted.	而在流行病学上（比如研究维他命、日常饮食或荷尔蒙与普通人群的健康的联系），五分之四最有威信的研究成果很快就被否定了。


For molecular research, in the absence of extensive replication, the refutation rate may occasionally exceed 99%.	而在分子研究上，在研究未被广泛复制的情况下，被否定的比率有时会超过99%。


But we should not panic.	但是我们不应为此而惊慌。


It is to be expected that the majority of research findings are rapidly contradicted and refuted; indeed, it is part of how progress of science occurs.	绝大部分的研究成果确实会被很快地驳斥和否定； 事实上，这是科学要取得进步的一部分。


However, we need to adapt to this situation.	我们应该习惯于这种情况。


Instead of taking scientific evidence as dogma, we should consider it as tentative information that should be ascribed a level of credibility.	我们不应把科学证据当作教条，而是把它们看做有一定可信度的试探性的信息。


There is nothing wrong with disseminating scientific information that has a credibility of 10%, or even 1%.	传播有着10%甚至是1%可信度的科学信息并没有什么错。


Sometimes, this will be the best evidence we have.	有时，这就是我们所能拥有的最好的证据。


But we should get used to understanding that some research findings have very low credibility, while others may be more likely to stand the test of time.	但是我们应该习惯于认识到有些研究成果可信度很低，而另一些则可能会经受住时间的考验。


Scientists themselves may be able to ascribe these levels of credibility to their own work in fairness, if they describe in detail what they set out to do, and how they did it.	如果科学家们能详细地描述他们做这个的出发点以及是如何着手去做的，也许他们自己就能公正地描述他们自己的工作的可信度。


Science is a noble pursuit, but genuine progress in scientific research is not easy to achieve.	科学是一项崇高的追求，但是要在科学研究上取得真正的进展并不是一件容易的事情。


It requires a lot of time, continuous effort, uncompromising integrity, appropriate funding and material support, and unwavering commitment.	它需要大量的时间、不断的努力、坚定不移的诚实、适当的资金和物质支持以及毫不动摇的持续投入。


Proposed scientific advances require careful validation and replication by independent scientists.	提出的科学进展需要得到独立的科学家认真的证实和复制。


Scientific knowledge is never final, but it evolves continuously.	科学知识永远不会是最终的，而是处于不断的发展中。


This is part of the great fascination of science, and it fosters liberty of thought.	这正是科学最让人着迷的地方，并且它能培养人们的思想自由。


While these principles are probably well known to serious scientists, they are often forgotten when scientific information is disseminated.	这些原则对于那些严肃的科学家来说也许早已烂熟于心了，但是当科学信息被传播的时候它们却总是被人遗忘了。


Our society is awash with inflated information, which is inherent to efforts in many human activities – entertainment, law courts, stock markets, politics, and sports, to name but a few – to gain greater public attention in the framework of mass civilization.	我们的社会充斥着膨胀的信息，这是许多人类的活动所固有的，例如娱乐、法庭、股票市场、政治还有体育，这些还不是全部，以便在大众文明的框架下获取更多的公众注意力。


But it would be a damaging to expect science to “show off” in this way.	但是如果要求科学也这样“宣扬自己”将会是危险的。


Exaggeration contradicts the key hallmarks of scientific reasoning: critical thinking and careful appraisal of the evidence.	夸大其词是与科学推理的主要特征即批判性的思考和对于证据认真的评定背道而驰的。


The Nigerian Kidnappers’ Ideology	尼日利亚绑架者的意识形态


LONDON – The abduction of more than 240 Nigerian girls has shocked the world.	伦敦—240多名尼日利亚女孩被绑架事件震惊了全球。


But, unfortunately, their case is not an isolated one in Nigeria.	但不幸的是，这决非尼日利亚的个别案例。


Indeed, Nigeria’s torment is shared by many other African countries, and the motivation behind the kidnapping derives from an ideology that is global.	事实上，尼日利亚的烦恼是许多非洲国家共同的烦恼，而绑架背后的动机则来自一种全球性的意识形态。


That ideology is based on a warped and false view of religion.	这一意识形态基于一种扭曲的错误宗教观。


It is taught in formal and informal school settings worldwide.	它在全球正式和非正式学校中教授。


Of course, the hideous and crazed words of the leader of Boko Haram, the group that kidnapped the girls, are representative only of the most extreme fringe of this ideology.	当然，绑架的实施者——博科圣地（Boko Haram）领袖丧心病狂的话只是这一意识形态最极端的代表。


But, until we clean the soil in which this poisonous plant takes root, it will continue to blight the life chances of millions of young people around the world – and jeopardize our own security.	但是，除非我们能够正本清源，否则这一意识形态将继续威胁全世界数百万年轻人的生命机遇，破坏我们的安全。


Across Sub-Saharan Africa, this problem is now vast.	在整个撒哈拉以南非洲，这一问题现在相当普遍。


Mali, Chad, Niger, the Central African Republic, Somalia, Kenya, and even Ethiopia have all suffered or face acute anxieties about the spread of extremism.	马里、乍得、尼日尔、中非共和国、索马里、肯尼亚甚至埃塞俄比亚都饱受极端主义蔓延的困扰或面临尖锐的焦虑。


Many other countries have now identified extremism as their single most important challenge.	许多其他国家更是将极端主义视为唯一最重要的挑战。


Governments are often confronting the challenge with courage and determination, and the use of African forces in many countries to try to keep peace is a tribute to that resolve.	政府通常凭借勇气和决心面对这一挑战，许多非洲国家动用军队来维持和平便是这一决心的写照。


But the fact is that the problem is continuing to grow.	但事实是这一问题还在继续恶化。


This is not by accident.	这不是巧合。


When I became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 1997, Nigeria served as an example of productive cooperation between Christians and Muslims.	1997年，当我就任英国首相时，尼日利亚是基督教徒和穆斯林有效合作的典范。


The destructive ideology represented by Boko Haram is not part of the country’s traditions; it has been imported.	博科圣地所代表的破坏性意识形态并非尼日利亚传统； 而是舶来品。


As the population grows, so will the problem.	随着人口增长，问题也在恶化。


Nigeria has approximately 168 million people today, with some estimates putting the population at 300 million by 2030, split roughly equally between Christian and Muslim.	如今尼日利亚拥有大约1. 68亿人，一些估计认为到2030年将达到3亿，其中基督徒和穆斯林大概各占一半。


Without a climate of peaceful coexistence, the consequences for the country – and the world – will be enormous.	若无和平共处的氛围，该国——以及全世界——将面临严重后果。


Poverty and lack of development play a huge part in creating the circumstances in which extremism incubates.	贫困和欠发展是极端主义温床形成的重要原因。


But poverty alone does not explain the problem.	但光是贫困不能解释问题。


And a major factor now holding back development is terrorism.	如今，阻碍发展的一个主要因素是恐怖主义。


Who would invest in northern Nigeria under current conditions?	以尼日利亚北部目前的条件而言，谁会前来投资？


How can local economies thrive in such an atmosphere?	在这样的条件下，当地经济如何能够繁荣？


This challenge is not confined to Africa.	这一挑战并不限于非洲。


The Middle East, as we know, is immersed in a process of revolution and upheaval that has been immensely complicated by Islamism and its extremist offshoots.	众所周知，中东正陷于革命和起义浪潮中，这一浪潮因为伊斯兰教及其极端分支而被大大复杂化了。


In Pakistan, more than 50,000 people have lost their lives in the terror attacks of the last decade.	在巴基斯坦，过去十年有50,000多人因恐怖袭击丧生。


Violence linked to the same ideology has taken innocent lives and destroyed communities in India, Russia, Central Asia, and the Far East as well.	与同一意识形态相关的暴力在印度、俄罗斯、中亚和远东地区也夺走了许多无辜群众的生命，摧毁了许多社区。


What is that ideology?	这一意识形态是什么？


Here is the crux of the issue.	问题的要害就在这里。


Because misrepresentation follows any pronouncement on this question, let me state some things very clearly.	对这一问题的任何阐述都会带来误读，因此对于某些东西，我要解释得非常清楚。


This ideology does not represent Islam.	这一意识形态并不代表伊斯兰教。


The majority of Muslims do not agree with it.	大部分穆斯林都不认同这一意识形态。


They are repulsed by it.	他们是被这一意识形态裹挟的。


This should give us hope about the future.	这应该令我们对未来有所期待。


But this ideology is a strain within Islam that represents an organized, substantial, powerful, and funded minority.	但这一意识形态是伊斯兰教内部的一大成分，代表着一群有组织的、为数相当庞大的、实力相当强大的、资金相当充裕的少数派。


What might loosely be called Islamism is based on a politicization of religion that is fundamentally incompatible with the modern world, for it assumes that there is one true religion, only one interpretation of that religion, and that this interpretation should prevail and dominate all countries’ politics, government institutions, and social life.	广义的伊斯兰教是宗教的政治化，它与现代世界根本上不相容，因为它认为存在一个真正的宗教，这种宗教只有一种解释，并且这种解释应该在所有国家的政治、政府机构和社会活动中胜出并占主宰地位。


Those who do not share this view must be overcome.	不持有这一观点的人必须征服。


This Islamist ideology is a spectrum.	这一伊斯兰教意识形态之下又可以细分。


At one extreme are groups like Boko Haram.	一个极端是博科圣地等组织。


Other groups may not advocate violence (though sometimes they do) but still preach a view of the world that is dangerous and hostile to those who disagree.	其他组织或许不鼓吹暴力（尽管有时也会鼓吹），但也宣扬世界对不信教者不安全、充满敌意的观点。


To see what I mean, read the Muslim Brotherhood’s statement in 2013 denouncing the UN women’s declaration for, among other things, defending women’s right to travel or work without their husbands’ permission.	要理解我的话，可以读一读穆斯林兄弟会2013年谴责联合国妇女宣言的声明。 联合国妇女宣言捍卫妇女不需经过丈夫同意即可旅行和工作的权利。


It is the ideology, not just the acts of extremism, that must be confronted.	我们必须面对的是这一意识形态，而不是恐怖主义行为。


My foundation, which provides practical support to help prevent religious prejudice, conflict, and extremism, has been active in Nigeria for several years, bringing together Christian and Muslim clerics to foster mutual understanding.	我的基金会为防止宗教偏见、冲突和极端主义提供实践支持，我们在尼日利亚已经活跃了多年，我们让基督教和穆斯林牧师坐在一起，增进相互理解。


In more than 20 countries worldwide, we have schools programs that connect children of different faiths to learn about each other.	我们的教育项目遍及全球20多个国家，旨在让不同信仰的孩子互相了解。


Even in the most challenging places, the results are clear and powerful.	即使在挑战最艰巨的地区，我们的成果也是清楚而有力的。


In Sierra Leone, where we are part of the campaign against malaria, we mobilize churches and mosques to work in their local communities and help families use bed nets effectively to protect themselves against a disease that still kills 750,000 pregnant women and children each year in Africa.	在塞拉利昂，身为消灭疟疾运动的一份子，我们动员基督教堂和清真寺与地方社区合作帮助家庭有效使用驱虫文章以保护他们自身免受这一每年夺走750,000孕妇和儿童生命的疾病影响。


We have reached two million people in an act of compassion and care, with results that are as remarkable as the interfaith cooperation that produces them.	我们带着悲天悯人和悬壶济世之心接触了200万人，所取得的效果与跨宗教合作计划一样引人注目。


So the battle is not lost.	因此我们并未输掉这场战争。


But it has to be seen for what it is.	但我们需要认清形势。


Every year, the West spends billions of dollars on defense relationships and on fighting terrorism.	每年，西方都要花费数十亿美元用于防务关系建设和对抗恐怖主义。


Yet the very thing we are fighting is given license to grow in the education systems of many of the countries with which we are engaged – even in our own.	但在许多我们所进入的国家——甚至我们自己的国家——我们与之搏斗的东西堂而皇之地在教育系统中滋长着。


Education today is a security issue.	如今，教育是一个安全问题。


The G-20 should agree that open-minded education that promotes religious tolerance should be a responsibility of all countries.	二十国集团应该达成一致，宣扬宗教容忍的开放思维教育应该是所有国家共同的责任。


We should insist upon it in our own school systems – and then insist upon it in others’ systems.	我们应该在我们自己的教育体系中坚持这一点——然后再在其他国家的教育体系中坚持它。


Nigeria’s kidnapped girls are victims not just of an act of violence but of a way of thinking.	尼日利亚被绑架女孩不仅是暴力的受害者，也是思维方式的受害者。


If we can defeat that ideology, we will begin to make progress toward a more secure world.	如果我们能够打败这一意识形态，我们就可以开始朝着安全世界迈进。


Education is a Security Issue	教育是一个安全问题


LONDON – In November, I spoke at the United Nations Security Council for the first time in 13 years.	伦敦—11月，我13年来第一次在联合国安理会发言。


It struck me how different the mood is now.	安理会的氛围发生了很大变化，令我大吃一惊。


In September 2000, the world seemed very different.	2000年9月的世界似乎与现在非常不同。


We were trying to articulate the new security order in the decade after the fall of the Berlin Wall.	那时我们试图构建柏林墙倒塌十年后的新安全秩序。


Of course there were challenges.	当然，那时有那时的挑战。


But the atmosphere was light, positive even, as we discussed eradicating poverty in the developing world.	但在我们谈论根除发展中世界的贫苦问题时，氛围很轻松，甚至可以说积极。


This time, the mood was dark.	如今，氛围很阴暗。


And the first days of 2014 have made it darker still.	2014年的第一天让氛围更加阴暗了。


Scroll down any day’s news summary and you find stories of terrorism and violence perpetrated in the cause of a false view of religion.	翻查任何一天的新闻摘要，你都能发现恐怖主义和暴力因为错误的宗教观而层出不穷。


Some of it is committed by non-state actors, and some of it by state actors; but all of it is committed in the context of division and conflict defined by differences of religious faith.	其中一些是由非国家行为人犯下的，一些是国家行为人犯下的； 但所有这些都是在以宗教信仰不同为表现的分歧和冲突的环境中犯下的。


This is the new struggle of the twenty-first century.	这是二十一世纪的新斗争。


We will not win it unless we fight its root causes as well as its ghastly consequences.	我们需要标本兼治，才能战胜在这场斗争中取得胜利。


Today, in an arc that stretches from the Far East through the Middle East to the streets of cities in Europe and the United States, we face a scourge that has taken innocent lives, scarred communities, and destabilized countries.	如今，从远东到中东再到欧洲和美国城市街头，夺走无辜生命、给社区留下疮痍、动摇国家的灾难比比皆是。


It is a threat that is constantly evolving, growing, and mutating to counter our fight against it.	这是一个不断演化、增长和突变、让我们很难对付的威胁。


The extremists propagating this violence have networks of outreach to young people and know the power of education, whether formal or informal.	传播这种暴力的极端分子拥有接触年轻人的网络，也知道教育（不管是正式教育还是非正式教育）的力量。


Extremists are filling young minds with the belief that anyone who disagrees is an enemy – and not just their enemy, but God’s enemy.	极端分子用“不是同志，就是敌人”——不仅是他们的敌人，更是上帝的敌人——的观念灌输给年轻人。


The security debate has understandably often focused on the consequences.	不难理解，安全争论总是聚焦于结果。


After an attack, states consider immediate security measures.	在发生袭击后，各国考虑的是马上采取安全措施。


Terrorists are hunted down.	恐怖分子会被猎杀。


Then we get back to our daily lives, until the next time it happens.	接着他们就会回到老方一帖，直到下一次袭击发生。


But lasting change depends on dealing with the root causes of extremism.	但持续的变化取决于根治极端主义。


Of course politics plays its part.	当然，政治在其中也起着作用。


And the extremists are good at jumping on the back of political grievances.	极端分子最善于利用政治仇恨。


But the soil in which they plant the seeds of hate is fertilized with ignorance.	但他们播撒仇恨种子的土壤是被无知的肥料养肥的。


That is why we need to start thinking of education as a security issue.	这就是我们需要开始把教育视为安全问题的原因。


The extremists justify killing in the name of God.	极端分子用上帝的名义来为杀戮洗脱罪名。


This is an obscene perversion of proper religious faith.	这是对正常宗教信仰的卑劣扭曲。


And it is a menace, both for the harm that it does directly and for the damaging division and sectarianism that it nurtures indirectly.	并且这是可怕的，这不仅直接造成伤害，还间接造成极具破坏性的分歧和宗派意识。


Every killing is a human tragedy.	任何杀戮都是人间悲剧。


But it also causes a chain reaction of bitterness and hatred.	但杀戮也是苦难和憎恨的冤冤相报的源头。


There is real fear in the communities plagued by such extremism, fear that paralyzes normal life and pushes people away from each other.	深陷这类极端主义困扰的社区有着真正的恐慌，恐慌这会让正常生活陷入瘫痪，让人与人之间越来越疏远。


Globalization is intensifying and multiplying this extremism.	全球化在加剧和助力这一极端主义。


Not limited by borders, it can spring up anywhere.	极端主义不受国界限制，处处都能开花。


We are more connected than at any point in human history, and more and more people come into contact with those who are different from them.	如今，我们比人类历史上任何一个时候互相联系都要紧密，并且越来越多的人和与他们不同的人发生了联系。


So the need to respect a neighbor who is not like you is much greater; but the scope to identify him or her as an enemy is also greater.	因此更需要尊重与你不同的邻居，但把邻居视为敌人的可能也增加了。


And this is not only about Islamic extremism.	并非伊斯兰极端主义是如此。


There are extremist acts perpetrated against Muslims because of their religion, and today there are fanatical Christians, Jews, Hindus, and Buddhists who disfigure the true nature of their faith.	因为宗教而对穆斯林施以极端主义行为同样存在，如今，基督教、犹太教、印度教和佛教徒都有狂热教徒抹黑着他们的信仰的真正性质。


That is why education in the twenty-first century is a security issue for all of us.	这就是在二十一世纪教育是事关我们所有人的安全问题的原因。


The challenge is to show young people who are vulnerable to appeals from terrorists that there is a better path to having their voice heard, a more meaningful way to engage with the world.	我们面临的挑战是向年轻人证明我们很容易被恐怖分子的诉求所影响——恐怖分子会告诉我们，有更好的办法让你的声音被听到，你可以通过更有意义的方式参与到世界中去。


The good news is that we know how to do this.	好消息是我们知道如何做这一点。


I use my Faith Foundation only as one example.	我以我的信仰基金会（Faith Foundation）做一个例子（仅仅是一个例子）。


Our schools program promotes cross-cultural dialogue among students aged 12-17 around the world.	我们的学校计划促进全世界12—17岁学生的跨文化对话。


Reaching students in more than 20 countries, our program connects students via a secure Web site, where they interact from their classrooms under the guidance of trained teachers.	我们的计划进入了20多个国家，通过安全的网站让学生们互相联系，他们可以在训练有素的教师的指导下在课堂中互动。


Through facilitated videoconferences, students discuss global issues from a variety of faith and belief perspectives.	通过视频对话，学生们从各种信仰和观念的角度讨论全球问题。


They gain the dialogue skills required to prevent conflict by breaking down religious and cultural stereotypes.	他们从中获得了对话技能，可以通过打破宗教和文化的刻板印象避免冲突。


For schools in the poorest areas, we use special arrangements, because they cannot access the Internet themselves.	对最贫困地区的学校，我们使用特别安排，因为他们靠自身无法接触互联网。


To be sure, we are only a drop in the ocean.	诚然，我们只是沧海一粟。


But we now have experience in more than a thousand schools; over 50,000 students have been taught, and we are working in countries as diverse as Pakistan, India, the US, Jordan, Egypt, Canada, Italy, the Philippines, and Indonesia.	但如今我们已经在超过一千所学校中有了经验； 超过50,000名学生获得了指导，我们的开展工作的国家范围极广，包括巴基斯坦、美国、约旦、埃及、加拿大、意大利、菲律宾和印尼等。


I have been privileged to witness these students becoming at ease with the cultures, faiths, and beliefs that inspire so many people around the world.	我很荣幸看到这些学生不再对启发全世界无数人类的文化、信仰和观念问题感到紧张。


There are many other fantastic examples of this type of work.	这方面的工作还有很多非常棒的例子。


But they lack the resources, weight, and recognition that they need.	但它们缺少它们所需要的资源、分量和承认。


We need to mobilize to defeat extremism.	我们需要动员全人类打败极端主义。


And we need to act globally.	我们需要全球行动。


All governments must take seriously their responsibility to educate young people to accept and respect people of different faiths and cultures.	所有政府都必须严肃滴承担起教育年轻人接受和尊重与自己不同信仰和文化的人的责任。


There is no issue that is more pressing.	没有比这更紧迫的问题了。


There is a real danger that religious conflict replaces the ideologically based struggles of the last century in an equally devastating form.	宗教冲突取代上个世纪基于意识形态的斗争，并且破坏力不亚于后者，这是一个实实在在的威胁。


It is up to all of us to show people that we have a better idea than the extremists have – to learn from each other and live with each other.	我们要让世人明白，我们的思想——不同的人互相学习、共同生活——比极端分子更优秀。


And this needs to be a core part of young people’s education.	并且这需要成为年轻人教育的核心部分。


Tony Blair’s Long Goodbye	布莱尔漫长的告别


In early 1999, Paddy Ashdown, then the leader of Britain’s Liberal Democratic Party (and since then, as Lord Ashdown, Europe’s envoy in Bosnia), was found with a woman not his wife and forced to resign his post.	1999年年初，当时的英国自由民主党领导人阿什顿 (自此以后就是欧洲驻波斯尼亚特使阿什顿勋爵) 被发现和一名不是妻子的女子在一起而被迫辞职。


In his diaries, he describes calling on Prime Minister Tony Blair to inform him in advance of his intention to quit:	他在日记中描述了要求布莱尔首相提前通知他辞职的打算。


“Blair said: ‘Going is the most difficult thing to do in politics.	日记写到：布莱尔说道：“在政治中，离开是最为困难的。


Too many people stay for too long.	太多的人呆得太长。


I would rather stop when people said, “Why is he going?” than when they said, “Why isn’t he going?”	我宁愿在人们说“他为什么要走”到时候停止工作，而不是在他们说“他为什么还不走？


Or, even worse, “When is he going?”	”或者更为糟糕地说“他什么时候走人？ ”的时候停止。


I hope I will be able to do it the same way.’”	我希望我能够用同样的方式结束首相生涯。 ”


This leaves us with an enduring mystery.	这就让我们一直迷惑不解。


Britain’s most adept and skillful politician has evidently known for years exactly what not to do about arranging his departure, and yet he has chosen to ignore his own advice.	很明显，这位手腕最为灵活的英国首相多年来一直知道在安排离开的时候不要做哪些事情，然而，他还是选择不理睬他自己的建议。


The mystery deepens when we recall that this consideration has been a part of Blair’s calculations ever since he became leader of the Labour Party in 1994.	当我们回想到自从1994年他成为工党领导人以来一直考虑这一问题时，就愈发不解了。


At a dinner in a London restaurant named Granita, in what has since become the best-known coffee-stage chat in British history, Blair made a proposal to Gordon Brown, his rival for the leadership.	在伦敦的一个名叫格雷尼达的餐厅里，布莱尔向他的工党领导人竞争对手布朗提出了一项提议。 从此，这成为了英国历史上最为著名的咖啡台谈话。


That proposal fell in two parts.	那一提议包含两项内容。


He, Blair, was demonstrably more “electable,” and should lead Labour in deposing the ramshackle Tory regime of John Major.	他布莱儿明显地更为“能够当选”，并且应当带领工党把梅杰领导的摇摇欲坠的保守党赶下台。


Then, with Labour in power, Brown could expect in due time to receive the mantle.	当工党执政后，布朗就可以指望在一定的时间接手领导人的职务。


On this condition, Brown agreed to give Blair a clear run.	在这一条件下，布朗同意让布莱尔自由驰骋。


That was three elections ago.	那是三个大选前的事情了。


What has kept Blair going?	是什么让布莱尔马不停蹄？


When I called on him in January this year, his press officer advised me not to bring up the obvious question.	当我今年一月份拜访他的时候，他的新闻官建议我不要提出这一明显的问题。


(I readily agreed, since an unanswerable question is a waste of time.)	(我欣然接受这一建议，因为一个无法回答的问题就是浪费时间。


But no sooner had I asked the Prime Minister how he was than he replied with a grin: “It’s nice to know one doesn’t have to fight another election.”	)但是，当我询问首相近况如何时，他马上咧着嘴回答说：“当你知道不必在位另一场选举而战时，感觉好极了。 ”


So there was the topic, inescapably, right in the middle of the room.	这样，这就不可避免地成为了屋子里的话题。


For the rest of the conversation, and on the trip to the outskirts of London that I also took with him, Blair talked and acted as if he had a full Prime Ministerial agenda on everything from global warming to the reconstruction of Afghanistan.	在剩下的交谈以及我和他一同前往伦敦郊区的行程中，布莱尔的言谈举止好似他还有整个首相要处理的事情，从全球变暖到阿富汗重建等等。


He also behaved, when talking to voters and citizens, as if he was tirelessly running for office for a fourth time.	当他同选民和民众谈话的时候，他的举止看起来好像是他还在不知疲倦地做第四次竞选。


Some of the motivations for this are purely human: he likes being Prime Minister and is good at it.	这样情况的某些动机完全是人性使然。 布莱尔喜欢当首相，而且也擅长于此。


Moreover, next year he will have been Prime Minister for a decade, longer than any previous Labour leader.	而且，他明年就会担任首相十周年，超过以往任何工党领导人。


A little longer, and he would outlast Margaret Thatcher’s record-breaking tenure, which must have been a temptation.	再长一点，他就会超过撒切尔夫人破记录的在职时间。 这必定是一个诱惑。


But Blair inexplicably chose to compound the mistake he had made with Brown, by announcing publicly, after having defeated the Tories for the third straight time, that he would not stand again.	但是，当布莱儿在连续第三次击败保守党后公开宣布他将不会再担任一届首相的时候，他令人费解地选择了加剧他在布朗身上所犯的错误。


From then on, there was really only one question on peoples’ minds, and it was the third – the worst – of the three questions he had mentioned to Ashdown: “When is he going?”	从此以后，人们的头脑中就只有一个问题，也是他曾经向阿什顿提及的三个问题中的第三个、也是最为糟糕的一个，那就是：“他什么时候走人？ ”


Blair ought to have known that politics is a pitiless business.	布莱尔理应知道政治是无情的。


For years, his backbench members of parliament kept quiet because they knew that they owed their seats, and their majority, to him.	多年来，他的后座议员们默不作声，因为他们知道是布莱尔给了他们议员席位和议会的多数。


Now, with the country insisting on an answer to the question he posed, they see him as a liability.	现在，当英国坚持要求回答他所提出的问题的时候，他们把布莱尔当成了累赘。


And the trade unions, whose power he has done so much to reduce, have been open in saying that they want a new party leader.	而势力被布莱尔大为削弱的工会也公开声明他们想要一个新的工党领导人。


Thus, his announcement that he will leave Downing Street next year is no more than a reluctant acceptance of what has been reality for some time.	如此，他宣布明年离开唐宁街只不过是不情愿地接受一段时间以来的事实而已。


No politician is free from a sense of destiny, and I think that Blair’s got the better of him.	没有任何一个政治家没有命运感，我想布莱尔还算更有此感。


In the decision to send British forces to defend Sierra Leone from a barbaric invasion from Liberia, he faced down all those who warned of disaster and won great moral credit.	当他决定派遣英国士兵保卫赛拉利昂不受利比里亚的野蛮入侵时，他降服了那些警告会发生灾难的人并且赢得了巨大的道义上的赞誉。


In deploying soldiers to Afghanistan and Iraq, he was convinced that he was both morally correct and politically right to stand by Britain’s main historic ally, the United States.	当他向阿富汗和伊拉克部署士兵时，他坚信他与英国主要的历史性盟国美国肩并肩的时候，他在道义和政治上都是正确的。


(It is reasonably certain that he would not have trusted Brown to do any of these things in the face of any serious opposition, and also reasonably certain that he was correct to think so.)	(他在面临强烈反对的时候，不会把任何这些事情交付给布朗，这是合理无疑的，而且，他这样想也是正确的，这也是合理无疑的)。


When I first interviewed Blair, as newly elected Labour leader in 1994, he answered my question about the role of his Christianity in his politics by saying, “I can’t stand politicians who go on about religion.”	1994年布莱尔新近当选工党领导人，我第一次采访他的时候，他回答我的有关他的基督教信仰在其政治中的作用的问题时候说：“我不能忍���那些从事宗教的政治家。


If I had to date the moment when my own misgivings about him began, it would be the time – starting after September 11, 2001 – when he began to emphasize his own “faith” as a motivating factor in his moral stand.	”如果要我指出我何时开始对他担心，那就是从2001年9月11日开始，当他开始强调其自身的“信仰”是他的道德立场中的推动因素的时候。


A saving element in British politics is that such appeals are usually considered embarrassing.	英国政治中的一个补救性因素就是，此类吁请通常被认为是令人尴尬的。


They may also suggest a slight tendency, on the part of those uttering them, to believe in some kind of supernatural endorsement.	它们也可能表明一种道出这些东西的人的轻微的倾向，那就是相信某种超自然的支持。 布莱尔离职的决定拖延许久，造成灾难后果。


So Blair’s concession that he must leave office, a decision so long postponed and so disastrously protracted, represents among other things a triumph of the mundane over the permanent temptation to believe that politics is about anything else.	相信政治事关其他是永不消退的诱惑。 所以，布莱尔被迫承认必须离职表明了一些道理，其中之一就是世俗对这一诱惑的胜利。


Tony Blair’s Palestine	布莱尔的巴勒斯坦


LONDON –Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has many positive attributes, including great charm.	伦敦--英国前首相布莱尔具有许多优秀的品质，包括巨大的魅力。


He will need all his skills to address the bewildering range of global tasks that he has taken on since being shoehorned out of office by his dour successor, Gordon Brown.	自从被平淡无奇的继任者布朗撵下台以来，他接手的全球性任务令人眼花缭乱，需要其全部技巧方能应付。


His initial daytime job, after running Britain, was to bring peace to the Middle East by helping establish the governing institutions of a Palestinian state.	他在执掌英国朝政后最初的日常工作是通过帮助建立巴勒斯坦国家的管理机构来给中东带来和平。


Since then, Blair has become an adviser to banks (which need all the advice they can get these days), is touring the world to promote a sensible policy on global warming and climate change, has created a foundation to help bridge the divide between different faiths, and will lecture on religion at Yale.	从那时以来，布莱尔已经成为多家银行的顾问(这些银行如今需要所有它们可以得到的建议)，又在周游各国推销有关全球气候变暖和气候变化的可行政策，建立了一个基金会来帮助弥合不同宗教信仰之间的鸿沟，并且还要在耶鲁大学进行有关宗教问题的讲座。


All that is left is to restore the fortunes of England’s national football and cricket teams.	剩下一点时间还要重振英格兰足球队和板球队的雄风。


Perhaps he could fit that in on weekends.	或许他可以利用周末时间干这个。


But Blair has just made a useful comment on Palestine and Israel, which deserves to be taken seriously.	但是布莱尔正好对巴勒斯坦和以色列问题发表了一个有用的评论，人们应该认真对待。


Throughout the long years of this bloody tragedy, we have tried to inch our way to a settlement through confidence-building measures or, in the case of the long dead “Road Map,” through pushing both parties to take parallel steps towards an agreement.	在这一漫长的流血悲剧历史中，我们已经试图努力通过建立信任的手段，或者在名存实亡的“路线图”计划中通过推动双方共同采取行动来达成和解。


Some observers, not least hard-headed Israeli peace campaigners, have suggested a different approach.	某些并非固执的以色列和平推动者的观察家则提出了一个不同的方式。


You will never succeed, they say, if you try to bob and weave your way slowly towards an end game.	他们认为，如果你想要蹒跚前行达到残局的话，你永远也不可能成功。


Instead, you should jump straight into a final deal.	相反，你应该直接跳到最终协议。


And, since you won’t get the two sides to agree to it, you’ll have to impose it from the outside.	而且，由于你无法让双方都赞同，因此你就需要从外部来予以强加协议。


But that ambitious outcome is easier described than achieved.	但是这一雄心勃勃的结果说起来容易做起来难。


While Israeli public opinion has usually appeared to run well ahead of its political leaders in the approach to peace, it is difficult to see how one could act over their heads.	尽管以色列的舆论通常看起来要比其政治领导人更加接近于和平道路，但是很难说如何可以越过这些领导人。


They need to be pushed and shoved into a successful negotiation.	人们需要把他们推到有成效的谈判上来。


What would it mean to go straight to Palestinian statehood?	直接迈到巴勒斯坦国家意味者什么呢？


Presumably, Blair is not proposing to the Palestinians the creation of a state before an agreement is reached on final borders.	人们预料，布莱尔并不是在向巴勒斯坦人建议在没有达成最终边界协议的条件下建国。


There cannot be a Palestinian state without dealing with West Bank settlements.	在没有处理西岸定居点问题的前提下不可能有巴勒斯坦国家。


If you don’t believe me, just visit the West Bank and see, for example, how the proposed suburban Israeli development of East Jerusalem stabs through the heart of Palestinian territory towards the Dead Sea.	如果你不相信我这样说，你可以去西岸看一看实际情况。 比如说，拟建中的以色列东耶路撒冷郊外开发项目是如何直穿巴勒斯坦领土中心地区一直到死海的。


How can you have a viable state carved up by fences, military roads, and barbed wire?	你怎么可能会有一个由工事、军事道路以及铁丝网划定的可以存活的国家呢？


Any Palestinian state should be within the 1967 borders (as adjusted through negotiation).	巴勒斯坦国必须在1967年边界以内(通过谈判调整)。


Peace activists on both sides solved that in the Geneva initiative.	双方的和平活动份子都在日内瓦倡议中表达了这一决心。


Yasser Arafat and Ehud Barak came close to doing so at Camp David almost eight years ago.	阿拉法特和巴拉克八年前在戴维营功败垂成。


Moreover, a Palestinian state would not only comprise the West Bank and Gaza, but presumably would also have to accommodate the principal political parties in each area.  Attempts to destroy Hamas – whether politically or physically – have not worked and cannot work.	而且，巴勒斯坦国不仅包括西岸和加沙地带，而且料想还要包容每个地区内主要的政治党派。 无论在政治上还是在军事上企图摧毁哈马斯的企图都没有奏效而且也无法奏效。


The Americans and Europeans committed a major error in conspiring to destroy the Fatah-Hamas national unity government, which was created largely thanks to the diplomacy of Saudi Arabia and other Arab League countries.	主要是由于沙特和其他阿拉伯联盟国家的斡旋而建立了法塔赫和哈马斯民族团结政府。 美国和欧洲联合摧毁这一政府从而犯下了一个重大错误。


I hope that Blair is saying that to his American friends.	我希望布莱尔向他的美国朋友表达这一点。


His greatest achievement was the peace deal in Northern Ireland.	他最大的成就就是北爱尔兰的和平协议。


That historic triumph depended on bringing in Sinn Fein politicians – leaders of the Irish Republican movement who in many cases could not be distinguished from the IRA, which bombed, shot, and maimed civilians in pursuit of its political goals.	这一历史性胜利取决于让新芬党领导人参与其中。 这些爱尔兰共和国运动的领导人在许多情形下无法与爱尔兰共和军区分开来，而爱尔兰共和军则为了其政治目标对平民进行了轰炸和枪击并让他们落下终身残疾。


Why should what worked in Northern Ireland – indeed, what was pressed on Britain by the United States – be unthinkable in the Middle East?	实际上，美国对布莱尔施压让他这样做。 那么，在北爱尔兰奏效的东西在中东为何就难以想像呢？


Are we in the West guilty of double standards yet again?	我们西方人是不是再一次犯有双重标准的罪过呢？


I abhor any and every terrorist act, by Hamas or anyone else.	我痛恨任何恐怖行径，无论是哈马斯还是其他人所为。


I have had friends killed by terrorists.	我有朋友被恐怖份子杀害。


But since when were sentiment and moral denunciation sufficient ingredients of a policy?	但是从什么时候起情绪和道德谴责成为了决策足够的组成部分呢？


And when did a disproportionate military response to terrorism ever work?	对恐怖主义采取不成比例的军事反应什么时候奏效过呢？


The third challenge in establishing a Palestinian state is to create the institutions of statehood: hospitals, ports, airports, roads, courts, police stations, tax offices, and government archives.	建立巴勒斯坦国的第三个挑战是建立国家机构，也就是医院、机场、道路、法院、警察局、税务局以及政府档案。


When I was a European Commissioner, we provided funds from European taxpayers to pay for these things.	在我担任欧盟委员会专员的时候，我们从欧洲纳税人那里提供资金来支付这些东西。


Then we saw them systematically trashed by Israel’s response to the second intifada .	随后以色列镇压巴勒斯坦第二次起义把这些东西毁灭殆尽。


How did destroying driving licenses in Palestine preserve Israeli security?	销毁巴勒斯坦的驾车执照如何能够保护以色列的安全呢？


How was it preserved by digging up runways, uprooting olive trees, and fouling wells?	把机场跑道挖乱、把橄榄树连根拔起、让井水变浑浊又如何能够保护和平呢？


A Palestinian state will need to be built from the bottom up.	巴勒斯坦国需要从头建起。


And what is built should not be destroyed.	建好的东西就不应该摧毁。


I want to see – and I’m sure Blair does, too – a peaceful Palestinian state next door to a secure Israel in a region united in prosperity and stability.	我本人想要看到，在由繁荣和稳定连接在一起的中东地区，和平的巴勒斯坦国家和安全的以色列和平共处。 我相信布莱尔也是如此。


Maybe Blair has hit on how this can be achieved.	或许布莱尔已经找到灵丹妙药。


But he should dwell upon the implications of such an approach between board meetings, lectures, and photo calls.	但是他应该在董事会会议、讲座以及合影等等活动之间好好考虑这一方式的后果。


Tony Blair’s Poisoned Legacy	布莱尔的政绩毁誉参半


Tony Blair has a powerful claim to being one of the most successful British politicians of any recent generation, at least in domestic economic and social policy.	布莱尔完全可以自称为最近几十年中英国最为成功的政治人物之一，至少在国内经济和社会政策方面如此。


But history will remember him mainly for his strategic error in going to war in Iraq.	但是，历史将主要地以他加入伊拉克战争的战略性错误而记住他。


During his ten years in power, Blair and his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, gave Britain one of the longest periods of economic stability, relatively high growth, and low unemployment that it had ever known.	在他的十年当政期间，布莱尔和他的财政大臣布朗给了英国历时最长的经济稳定、相对高增长以及低失业率的时期之一。


In this respect, Blair’s premiership marked a fundamental break with the Labor Party’s tax-and-spend tradition.	在这一方面，布莱尔的首相任期标志着与工党征税和开支传统的根本决裂。


It also established a new tradition of stability in economic policy, continuing and reinforcing the previous Conservative government’s commitment to fiscal discipline and low inflation.	这一时期也建立了新的经济政策稳定的传统，继续并且强化了先前保守党政府致力于财政纪律以及低通货膨胀的努力。


Stable economic policy and rapid growth, in turn, enabled Blair’s government to pour extra money into education and the National Health Service.	稳定的经济政策以及快速的增长反过来让布莱尔政府能够将剩余的钱投入到教育和全国医疗服务上来。


Yet Blair’s domestic legacy is a mood of disillusion and mistrust, especially of Blair himself.	但是布莱尔的内政遗留产物却是幻想破灭以及不信任的情绪，特别是布莱尔本人。


One reason is that a significant portion of Blair’s party (which he renamed “New Labor”) never reconciled itself to the primacy that he gave to free-market principles over its old Socialist or Social Democratic values.	其中一个原因是布莱尔工党的很大一部分（布莱尔称之为“新工党”）从来都没有接受布莱尔将自由市场原则放置于旧的社会党或者社会民主党价值观念之上。


Another is that Blair consistently seemed to pay much less attention to Parliament than to the right-wing tabloid press: the spin and media manipulation to which his office devoted so much effort worked wonders at first, but soon generated deep skepticism and mistrust.	另一个原因是布莱尔看起来总是对议会的关注要少于对右翼街头小报的关注。 他的首相办公室花费大量精力在对广播和媒体的操纵之上，一开始硕果累累，但是马上就产生了深深的怀疑和不信任。


But the main reason for Britain’s popular disillusion with Blair comes down to his role in the Iraq war, which was launched with the ostensible aim of pre-empting Iraq’s use weapons of mass destruction (WMD).	但是英国大众对布莱尔大失所望的主要原因在于他在伊拉克战争中的作用。 发动这一战争表面上的目的是为了先发制人，防止伊拉克使用大规模杀伤性武器。


Of course, as we now know, WMD were never found, and, worse, evidence came to light showing that Blair was aware that the Bush administration was committed to regime change, regardless of their existence.	当然，正如我们所知道的那样，根本就没有发现所谓大规模杀伤性武器，而且更为糟糕的是，有证据表明布莱尔知道布什当局一心想要改变伊拉克政权，而无论是否存在有大规模杀伤性武器。


The infamous Downing Street memorandum of July 23, 2002, eight months before the outbreak of war, stated explicitly that “The intelligence and the facts were being fixed around the policy.”	战争前八个月臭名昭著的2002年7月23日唐宁街备忘录明确声明“情报和事实都是围绕着政策而确定的”。


In short, when Blair took Britain to war, he deliberately misled Parliament and the electorate about the ostensible rationale for it.	简而言之，当布莱尔参战的时候，布什当局并不预见到推翻萨达姆政权将会引发多重的叛乱和内战。


When no WMD were found, Blair fell back on the previously unavowed justification that the removal of Saddam Hussein was the “right thing to do.”	这些危险是可以预料得到的，而且全世界都知道，这一场战争表明美国战略的惨痛失败，还可能会有更为灾难性的后果。


Unfortunately, the Bush administration did not foresee that Saddam’s removal would precipitate a multi-sided insurgency and civil war.	那么，布莱尔为何支持这一战争呢？


These dangers were predictable, and the world now knows that the war has proved a terrible failure of American strategy, and may yet have even more catastrophic consequences.	部分原因要上溯到布莱尔第一次的外交政策大冒险，也就是北约在1999年干预科索。


So why did Blair support it?	在1998年到1999年之间，塞尔维亚开始了对科索沃占人口多数的阿尔巴尼亚人的暴力镇压，将大约40万科索沃人赶出了家园。


Part of the answer goes back to Blair’s first big foreign policy adventure, NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.	外部世界的外交努力毫无成效，因此，在1999年3月，北约开始了针对塞尔维亚人78天的轰炸。 布莱尔在西方各国领导人中带头推动北约的行动，而且，他为这一外部干预的创新辩解说这是“国际社会新的原则”，使得其成为“正义的战争”，因为这是建立在高人一等的西方价值观念基础之上。


In 1998-1999 Serbia had embarked on violent repression of Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority, driving roughly 400,000 Kosovars from their homes. Diplomatic efforts by the outside world proved ineffective, so in March 1999, NATO began a 78-day bombing campaign against the Serbs.	布莱尔性格的弱点之一是自以为是、过度自信，这可能是他的基督教信仰的推断，因此他知道正确的东西，所以就有权利据此来行动。


Blair was at the forefront among Western leaders in pressing for NATO action, and to justify this innovation in outside intervention he proclaimed “a new doctrine of international community” that made it a “just war,” because it was based on superior Western values.	就伊拉克战争而言，布莱尔从来就没有承认这一战争在酝酿上是错误的，在实践上是灾难性的。 对于他来说，这还是“一个正确的事情”。


One of Blair’s character flaws is self-righteousness, an excessive confidence – perhaps an extrapolation of his Christian faith – that he knows what is correct, and is therefore entitled to act accordingly.	布莱尔在伊拉克战争的全面后果展现出来之前离职。 现在，教派冲突没有结束的迹象，而伊拉克成为一个和平、统一的民主国家毫无希望。


In the case of the Iraq war, Blair has never conceded that the war was mistaken in conception or disastrous in practice: for him, it was still “the right thing to do.”	而且，伊拉克的内乱很有可能在整个中东地区造成不可估量的后果。


Blair leaves office before the full consequences of the Iraq war have been played out.	从英国人的角度来说，其中一个后果就是，任何未来的英国首相再一次主要地出于对美国总统的忠诚而发起另一大军事冒险基本上是不可能想象的。


There is no sign of an end to the sectarian violence, and little prospect that Iraq can become a peaceful, unitary democracy.	实际上，布莱尔由于其在伊拉克战争中的共谋作用而对英美两国的“特殊关系”造成了重大的破坏。 相比美国，这一关系对于英国而言总是更为特殊。


Moreover, the convulsions in Iraq may well have incalculable repercussions throughout the Middle East.	美国几乎不认识到这一关系的存在。 但是，这一关系在英国人民的头脑中大打折扣，其结果可能就是在英国的战略思考中加入新的独立因素。


One consequence, from a British perspective, is that it is now virtually impossible to imagine that any future prime minister could engage in another big military adventure primarily out of loyalty to an American president.	另一个后果是，英国的道义地位同美国的一起受到了��害。


Indeed, it is possible that Blair, through his complicity in the Iraq war, has inflicted major damage on the very idea of a “special relationship” between Britain and the United States.	但是，对于美国的道义地位的损害要比对于世界的健康更为严重。


This relationship was always more special for the British than for the Americans, who scarcely recognize its existence.	布莱尔是否可以原本劝说布什不要发动伊拉克战争不得而知。


But if it has now been discredited in the minds of the British people, the result may be a new element of independence into British strategic thinking.	但是，由于布莱尔积极踊跃地支持布什的战争，其政绩将会永远大打折扣。


Another consequence is that Britain’s moral standing has been damaged alongside that of the US. But the damage to America’s moral position is more serious for the health of the world.	作者是位于布鲁塞尔的欧洲政策中心的顾问和专栏作家。


It is uncertain whether Tony Blair could have dissuaded George Bush from waging war in Iraq. Nevertheless, by enthusiastically backing Bush’s war, his legacy will forever remain deeply compromised.	他是金融时报的前专栏作家，其最新著作是《流放中的伏尔泰》。


Still Too Big to Fail	仍然太大而不能倒


WASHINGTON, DC – Nearly seven years after the global financial crisis erupted, and more than five years after the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial-reform legislation in the United States, the cause of the crisis – the existence of banks that are “too big to fail” – has yet to be uprooted.	华盛顿—全球金融危机爆发已近七年，美国多德-弗兰克（Dodd Frank）金融改革立法通过也已五年多，但危机的根源——存在“太大而不能倒”的银行——仍然没有解决。