The Plaza de Mayo mothers inspired similar groups from Africa to Serbia to Los Angeles, and brought them together in the mid-1990s as the International Gathering of Mothers and Women in Struggle.	5月广场母亲启迪了从非洲到塞尔维亚再到洛杉矶的类似团体，最终促使她们在二十世纪九十年代中的母亲和妇女斗争国际盛会上聚集到一起。


As Professor Marguerite Bouvard of Brandeis University documented in her 1996 book Women Reshaping Human Rights, women’s groups more generally have played a critical role in the human-rights movement, pursuing economic, social, and cultural justice and emphasizing the importance of human dignity and mutual respect among citizens and between citizens and the state.	布兰代斯大学的玛格丽特·布瓦尔教授在其1996年的著作女性重塑人权中写道，女性团体普遍在人权运动中发挥了关键作用，追求经济、社会和文化公正并强调人权尊严以及公民和公民及公民与政府间相互尊重的重要性。


Even among women’s groups, however, mothers have a special place.	但即使在女性团体内部，母亲们也扮演了特别的角色。


They operate in countries that typically refuse to recognize the agency of women beyond the role of mothers, wives, and daughters.	她们身处的国家往往拒绝承认女性机构在母亲、妻子和女儿之外的角色。


They use their given role as a badge of moral authority, taking their voices and their truth out of the home and into the streets to fight not for abstract concepts of justice, but for sons and daughters with names and histories.	她们利用自己的设定角色象征道德权威，带着她们的观点和真相走出家庭、走上街道，她们不仅为了抽象的正义概念而战，而是为了有名有姓、有过往的儿女。


When renowned Honduran activist Berta Cáceres was murdered on March 3, 2016, it was her mother, Austra Bertha Flores Lopez, a midwife and social activist, who took the lead in holding the Honduran state responsible for her death.	当著名洪都拉斯活动家贝尔塔·卡塞雷斯于2016年3月3日被杀后，是她的母亲奥斯特拉·伯莎·弗洛雷斯·洛佩兹，一位助产士兼社会活动家站出来领导要求洪都拉斯政府为女儿之死负责的活动。


In the United States, mothers have been active in protesting police brutality in the Black Lives Matter movement.	在美国，母亲们一直在“黑人的命也是命”运动中积极抗议警方的暴行。


In India, they have marched to raise awareness of widespread sexual assault.	在印度，她们走上街头抗议无所不在的性侵犯。


And in Colombia, they have been active in the peace process, ensuring that the proposed agreement to end the FARC insurgency focuses on the lives of women.	而在哥伦比亚，她们积极参与和平进程，确保拟议中结束哥伦比亚革命武装力量叛乱活动的协议重点关注女性的生活。


Flores and her fellow activists have committed themselves to a long road.	弗洛雷斯及其同道就此走上一条漫长的道路。


In 2007, Mexico’s government adopted the General Law on Women’s Access to a Life Free of Violence, which defined and codified the term femicide in Mexico.	2007年，墨西哥政府通过妇女免受暴力生活之困的普通法，明确定义并量化了墨西哥“屠杀妇女”一词。


But it had to be ratified by each of Mexico’s 31 states, and only the more liberal states did so.	但它必须得到墨西哥所有31个州的批准，但只有比较自由的州才会这样做。


In 2009, mothers and activists brought the case of the “Cotton Field” femicides – eight girls and women whose bodies were discovered in Juárez in 2001 – before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.	2009年，母亲和活动人士将2001年八名女孩及女性尸体在华雷斯被发现的“棉田”女性谋杀案起诉到了美洲人权法院要求审理。


The Court charged the government with failing to investigate the murders properly, and required the government to construct a monument to the victims and compensate families for their loss.	法院指控政府未能对谋杀展开适当的调查，并要求政府为受害者修筑纪念碑并赔偿其家人的损失。


For many mothers like Paula, change is measured in decades.	对许多像保拉这样的母亲而言，变化都是以几十年为单位来衡量的。


But their work continues.	但她们仍然没有放弃这样的工作。


In 2014, 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teacher’s College were on buses heading to Mexico City to join protesters on the anniversary of the 1968 Tlatelolco Massacre (in which up to 300 students were killed ten days before the opening of the Olympic Games).	2014年，来自Ayotzinapa乡村师范大学的43名学生乘坐公共汽车前往墨西哥城参加1968年特拉特洛尔科大屠杀纪念日的抗议活动（在那次大屠杀中多达三百名学生在奥运会开幕十天前被杀）。


Local police stopped them near an army checkpoint.	当地警方在一个军队检查站附近拦住了她们。


They were “disappeared” in what appears to have been a coordinated state action to silence young activists.	她们在一次看似让青年活动份子闭嘴的统一政府行动中“消失了”。


It was mothers who immediately organized and took action to demand justice.	又是她们的母亲立即组织起来并采取行动要求伸张正义。


During the 2016 clashes in the Mexican state of Oaxaca between the military and teachers protesting educational reforms, the military killed ten people, including 19-year-old Jesús Cadena Sánchez.	在2016年墨西哥瓦哈卡州军队和抗议教育改革的教师爆发的冲突中，军队杀害了十名民众，其中包括十九岁的赫苏斯·卡德纳·桑切斯。


“I went to look for my son where I heard shots fired.	“我去找我的儿子时听到了枪声。


I was so desperate to find my son that I did not care about myself,” recounted Sánchez’s mother.	我绝望地想要找到我的儿子，根本顾不上考虑自己的安危，”桑切斯的母亲回忆说。


August 30 was the International Day of the Victims of Forced Disappearance.	8月30日是强制失踪受害者国际日。


Around Mexico, mothers of victims of disappearance and femicide organized protests.	失踪及女性屠杀受害者的母亲在墨西哥各地组织了抗议活动。


In Juárez, mothers marched to demand that governor-elect Javier Corral adopt policies to prevent forced disappearance.	在华雷斯，母亲们举行示威游行，要求当选州长哈维尔·科拉尔采取政策防止强制失踪事件再次发生。


These mothers refuse to allow their children to be forgotten.	这些母亲拒绝让自己的孩子被人遗忘。


Paula Flores founded a kindergarten in her neighborhood, Lomas de Poleo, named after the Carmelite martyr María Sagrario.	保拉·弗洛雷斯开办了一家名叫Lomas de Poleo的社区幼儿园，这家幼儿园是以加尔默罗烈士玛丽亚·萨格拉里奥的名字命名的。


She recently worked with a local artist to design a mural of Sagrario in front of her house.	最近她与当地艺术家合作在她家的住宅前设计了一幅萨格拉里奥的壁画。


She and her daughter Guillermina have for years organized groups of mothers to paint crosses around the city at sites where girls and women have disappeared, a visual reminder of a problem that the city has failed to address for two decades.	她和她的女儿吉列米娜常年组织母亲团体在全市女孩和女人曾经失踪的案发地点作画，从视觉上提醒人们不要忘记这座城市二十年未能解决的痼疾。


When the crosses fade, the mothers repaint them.	当十字架褪色后，母亲们又会重新绘制。


Other mothers’ groups march wearing shirts or holding posters with the faces of their missing children.	其他的母亲团体则身着衬衫游行，手举绘有她们失踪子女头像的海报。


The writ of habeas corpus is one of the first and oldest protections in Western legal systems, requiring jailers – those who “have the body” – to provide a reason for the prisoner’s detention.	人身保护令是西方法律体系最早也是最古老的保护措施之一，它要求看守者——那些“人犯”身体的拥有者——为囚犯的关押提供理由。


If a citizen disappears due to another citizen’s actions, the kidnapper or murderer must be brought to account.	如果一位公民由于另一位公民的行为而失踪，绑架者或谋杀者必须被绳之以法。


Mothers bring a direct, emotional, and personal component to this age-old struggle, insisting on their children’s existence as citizens and human beings whose rights must be upheld.	母亲们为这场古老的斗争注入了直接、个人和情感的因素，坚持要求她们子女作为公民和人类的权利和存在必须得到保护。


Motor City Meltdown	汽车城的崩溃


WASHINGTON, DC – The financial crisis that began in 2007 has been persistently marked by muddled thinking and haphazard policymaking.	华盛顿特区 –2007年以来的金融危机一直伴随着无序的思路和杂乱的政策出台。


Now, the United States Treasury is headed for a mistake of historic and catastrophic proportions by refusing to bail out America’s Big Three automakers.	现在美国财政部又在以拒绝拯救美国三大汽车制造巨头的方式，朝着历史性和灾难性的错误迈进。


Make no mistake.	没错。


If Detroit’s Big Three go bankrupt, the perfect storm really will have arrived with a collapse in both the real economy and the financial sector.	如果底特律的三大汽车公司倒闭，完美风暴真的会随着实体经济和金融业一起崩溃而到来。


This threat means that the financial bailout funds authorized by Congress can legitimately be used to support the automakers.	这种威胁意味着，由美国国会授权的对金融业的救助资金可以被合法使用，来支持汽车制造业。


Treasury’s refusal to do so is a monumental blunder that risks a general meltdown, the consequences of which will extend far beyond America’s shores.	财政部的拒绝是一个巨大的失误，这是在冒全面崩溃的风险，这种风险的后果将远远超出美国本土。


Proponents of a bailout for the Big Three have emphasized the enormous job losses associated with a bankruptcy scenario, including not only jobs directly provided by the automakers, but also jobs with parts suppliers, auto dealers, and in the transport and advertising industries.	赞成救助汽车业三大巨头的人强调，破产会带来巨大的失业数字，其中不仅包括直接提供就业机会的汽车制造商，而且还包括零部件供应商、汽车经销商、运输业和广告业的失业人数。


These job losses will then be multiplied locally and nationally.	这些失业人数然后将在当地和全美国培增。


Lost wages will reduce consumption, causing additional job cuts, while factory closures will reduce investment, hitting employment in capital goods industries.	人们没有了工资收入，消费就会减少，这将造成更多的裁员，同时，工厂的倒闭将使投资减少，会打击投资界的就业机会。


Lost incomes will also drive down tax revenues, resulting in public-sector employment cutbacks.	收入的减少也导致将税收额下降，并影响公共部门的就业机会。


Moreover, the automakers are essential for closing the trade deficit, and their demise could bring another surge in imports.	此外，汽车业对于缩小贸易赤字是必不可少的，汽车业一死，就可能引起另一波的汽车进口潮。


The automakers are also the backbone of American manufacturing, driving advances in manufacturing technology that will be needed if America is to be a world leader in the coming “green” transportation revolution.	汽车制造商又是美国制造业的主心骨，它推动着生产技术的进步。 而如果美国要在今后的“绿色”交通革命中成为世界领袖的话，就将需要这些领先的技术。


Additionally, the Big Three are vital to national security, supplying important military transportation assets.	此外，三巨头对国家安全至关重要，它们提供着重要的军事运输的财产。


Lastly, bankruptcy will impose massive costs on the government’s Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), further worsening the fiscal outlook.	最后，它们的破产将使政府的养老金福利担保公司（ PBGC ）耗费巨大 ，会进一步恶化财政困局。


All of this is true.	所有这一切都是事实。


But missing from this array of arguments is the damage a bankruptcy of the Big Three would do to financial markets.	但这一系列论点中漏说了一点，即三大巨头的破产将对金融市场造成的损害。


In one fell swoop, the hard-won gains in stabilizing the financial system would be blown away.	来之不易的稳定金融体系的成果将毁于一旦。


The Big Three and their auto finance associates (such as GMAC) are huge debtors whose liabilities are held throughout the financial system.	三巨头和他们的汽车贷款合作方（如通用金融公司）的负债遍布全国的金融体系中。


If they go bankrupt, the insurance industry, which is likely a large holder of these debts, would quickly enter a spiral of collapse.	如果它们破产，可能是这些债务的大债主的保险业将很快会开始螺旋式的崩溃。


Pension funds would also be hit, imposing further costs on the PBGC.	养老基金也将受到打击，这将让养老金福利担保公司拿出更多的开支。


But the greatest damage may come from the credit default swaps (CDS) market that brought down AIG.	但最大的损失可能来自曾使美国国际集团倒闭的信用违约互换（CDS ）市场。


Huge bets have undoubtedly been placed on the bonds of GM, Ford, Chrysler, and GMAC, and bankruptcy will be a CDS triggering event requiring repayment of these bonds.	毫无疑问，大家都想对通用、福特、克莱斯勒和通用金融公司的债券大赌一把，而它们的破产将由CDS触发，这一事件会要求偿还这些债券。


Moreover, a Big Three bankruptcy will bankrupt other companies, risking a cascade of financial damage as their bonds and equities fall in value and further CDS events are triggered. This is the nightmare outcome that risks replicating the Crash of 1929.	此外，三巨头的破产将导致其它公司的破产，当其债券和股票贬值以及更多的CDS事件被触发时，就会冒一连串的经济损失的风险，这种恶梦般的结果，会冒重演1929年大萧条历史的风险。


Opposition to the bailout is bringing back to the surface the worst of the conservative economic thought that got America and the world into this mess in the first place.	反对对救助汽车业的势力正在重弹保守经济思想的最糟粕的一部分，正是这些思维，才使得美国和世界最初陷入了这个烂摊子。


The opposition of the Federal Reserve and Treasury to hands-on intervention meant that they were slow to understand that merely ring-fencing the commercial banks could not save the financial system.	美联储和财政部反对着手干预，这显示了他们对于“仅仅保护商业银行是不能拯救金融体系的”这一点上理解得太慢。


Now, they are failing to understand the financial significance of the Big Three.	现在，他们未能理解汽车业三大巨头在金融上的重要性。


Conservative animus toward trade unions is also once again on display.	保守势力对工会的敌意也再次显示出来。


But it is union weakness that has caused wages to stagnate and forced America to rely on debt and asset price inflation as the engines of growth.	但是，正是工会的软弱，才造成了工资的滞涨，并迫使美国必须依靠举债和资产价格的膨胀作为的增长的动力。


Another conservative accusation is that a bailout would infringe free-trade rules.	另一种保守的批评是，救助就将侵犯自由贸易的规则。


But it is these rules that have fostered the trade deficits that have destabilized and undermined the American economy.	但是，正是这些规则造成了贸易赤字，并损害了美国经济和造成美国经济的不稳定性。


The reality is that world trade would suffer far greater damage from the global economic fallout of a Big Three bankruptcy.	现实是，三大巨头的破产带来的全球经济下滑，对世界贸易的冲击将比这严重得多。


Lastly, conservatives have trotted out the old moral hazard story in order to argue that a bailout would turn American manufacturing into a permanent beggar of government funds.	最后，由保守派抛出的老套的道德风险说争辩道，救助将造成美国制造业对政府资金的永久性的乞讨。


In fact, business has always lobbied Congress for favors and tax breaks, and the Lehman Brothers experience proved the foolishness of confusing parables about moral hazard with crisis management.	事实上，企业一直在游说国会以捞取好处并争取减免税收。 而及雷曼兄弟公司的经验证明了把道德风险的比喻与危机管理混为一谈是多么地愚蠢。


There are undoubtedly colossal problems in Detroit, and the bosses of the Big Three automakers could never be convicted of an excess of imagination.	汽车业无疑存在着巨大的问题���三大汽车制造商的老板不会被抱怨想象力过于丰富。


Economic policy has also contributed to their current condition as trade agreements and an over-valued dollar promoted auto imports, and incoherent energy and environmental policy stifled innovation.	经济政策也是造成他们目前困境的原因之一，因为贸易协定和估值过高的美元推动了汽车的进口，而早令夕改的能源和环境政策则扼杀了创新。


All of this must be fixed.	所有这一切都必须要修正。


But sacrificing the Big Three automakers will accomplish nothing while risking a tragic economic depression.	但是，牺牲三大汽车制造商将于事无补，但却会冒经济衰退的悲剧性风险。


Mourning Becomes Connected	将哀思链接起来


PALO ALTO – My close friend Kris Olson died last week.	发自美国加州帕罗奥多市 —— 我的密友克里斯·奥尔森上星期离开了人世。


It wasn’t after a long illness, or even after a car crash.	她并非死于疾病的折磨，也没有遭遇车祸。


She just went to bed at home one night, and was dead when her son tried to wake her in the morning.	她仅仅是某天晚上在家睡觉，谁知第二天早上儿子来叫她起床时，她已经离开了人世。


No drama, no long goodbyes, just…nothing.	没有戏剧性的场面，没有长长的临终叮嘱 …… 就这样，死了。


I heard about it two days later from my brother, by e-mail, who heard from a friend of his.	我在两天之后才从我兄弟的电子邮件那里听到了这个噩耗，而他也是从朋友处听来的。


Then I got a couple of e-mails from other friends, forwarding messages from people I didn’t even know, with a few cc’s to some familiar names.	接着我又收到其他几个朋友发来的电子邮件，这些邮件都是从一些我不认识的人处转发而来，并抄送给一些我认识的人。


I called a friend and got a few sparse details: Kris’s husband was away but had hurried back. And no, there was absolutely no warning.	我打电话给一个朋友，打听到了事情的一些零零碎碎的细节：克里斯的丈夫当时正在外面办事，闻讯匆匆赶了回来。


No signs. No health issues, except that a few years back she broke her arm catching a football.	而且整件事安全没有任何警告，没有任何迹象，连健康原因都没有，除了数年前克里斯玩橄榄球时骨折过一次之外。


Until I had these conversations, I didn’t really believe that Kris had died.	直到我和朋友通过话之前，我甚至都不相信克里斯真的走了。


And then there were those confirming e-mails.	然后就是那些确认这一噩耗的邮件。


I had seen her just last month: alive and vivid as usual.	我上个月才见过她：活蹦乱跳的，一如往常。


We went to her hairdresser, where she chatted while I had my hair cut.	我们一起去找她相熟的发型师，我剪头发，她闲聊。


We went shopping at the Stanford shopping center, and had soup for lunch, sitting outside in unusually chilly weather because the eateries were crowded.	我们一起去斯坦福购物中心买东西，中午饭喝了点汤，餐厅爆满，大冷天的我俩只好坐在餐厅外面。


She was her usual self: cheerful, full of plans for her children, her bird watching, her consulting work.	她还是跟往常一样：兴致很高，满脑子都是对自己小孩的培养计划，观鸟的兴趣，还有自己的顾问工作。


Kris was smart but unpretentious.	克里斯是那种聪明但不招摇的人。


She loved gossip, but she could always forgive a sinner.	她喜欢倾诉，却总能原谅些得罪过她的人。


She had worked at Apple in marketing in the early days and had probably told Steve Jobs off a few times.	她早年曾在苹果公司干过市场，估计也私下骂过史蒂夫·乔布斯几次。


It wasn’t until later in the day that I went to her Flickr account to see her photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kristenolson/ .   I was struck by the next to last: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kristenolson/4241087527/ – a bird flying free, in sharp focus against a fuzzy backdrop of sea and sky.	com/photos/kristenolson/4241087527/ 震撼了我 —— 一只自由飞翔的鸟，背景是模糊的蓝天大海。 但这可不是克里斯逃避悲惨生活的写照。


But that wasn’t Kris, fleeing some kind of sad life.	有张更好的 http://www. flickr.


There was a better one: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kristenolson/4241806180 - a sharp-eyed red-shouldered hawk, solid and sturdy, gazing balefully at the camera.	com/photos/kristenolson/4241806180 ，一只目光锐利的 赤肩鵟，沉稳而坚定地逼视着镜头。


Sensible, kind, but no pushover.	敏感，友善，但不是个容易对付的对手。


Then I went to Kris’s Facebook page, and started crying.	然后我上到了克里斯的 Facebook 页面，并泪流满面。


Her Flickr feed is her art, a sort of memorial, but her Facebook page is her life.	她的 Flickr 反映的是她的艺术，是某种纪念。 但 Facebook 反映的则是她的人生。


People have come to pay tribute.	人们都来向她致敬意。


It is clear that she touched many lives, some of them semi-official, like the Mid-Peninsula Chapter of the National Charity League, but more of them just friends.	可见她曾感动过许多人，其中一些吊唁来自半官方组织，比如全国慈善联盟中半岛分会，剩下的留言则来自于她的朋友。


Our friendship had existed since 1982 and continued outside of Facebook; I don’t think I saw her page more than once or twice since we “befriended” one another a few years ago.	我们之间的友谊始自 1982 年，并一直在 Facebook 以外持续着； 在我们几年前在网上“结为好友”之后我甚至都没上过几次她的页面。


We communicated by e-mail, but mostly face-to-face a few times a year, ever since we met.	我们用电子邮件联系，但主要是最相识以来每年都会见几次面。


You wouldn’t have guessed from Facebook that, while she knew a lot of industry people, she wasn’t overly impressed with the “important” ones.	从 Facebook 上你不会猜到，虽然她对某些行业和人物都如数家珍，但对某些“重要”人物却没有过分的好感。


She wasn’t unkind; she was just observant.	这并非因为她是个苛刻的人，她只是习惯用冷静的心态旁观而以。


So what does Facebook mean in the face of death?	那么究竟在死亡面前， Facebook 有什么意义？


Genes are one way for a person to live on: You can see shadows or glimpses of anyone in their children and other relatives.	基因是人们延续其生命的一种方式：因为你可以从他们的子孙或亲戚身上看到先人的影子。


Their creations – whether diaries or Flickr photos, a hand-crafted cabinet or cheesecake recipes – are another way.	而他们的作品 —— 无论是日记还是 Flickr 照片，亲手做的柜子还是一张芝士蛋糕配料表 —— 则是另一种方式。


But perhaps our most meaningful creations are the thoughts and changes that we leave in other people.	但或许我们最有意义的作品则是我们灌输到别人思想中的思维和改变。


These traces used to disperse and disappear over time after someone’s death.	从前这些痕迹会在人去世之后随着时间的流逝逐渐消散并泯灭。


But now, with Facebook and other such tools, a person’s page is a place for those memories to gather.	但今天，利用 Facebook 和其他工具，一个人的网上主页将成为这些回忆的汇聚之处。


Kris knew lots of people, in many different contexts, and now they are sharing memories on her page.	克里斯在不同的场合结识过很多人，如今这些人都在她的页面上��享着对她的哀思。


Now memories of Kris remain alive and accessible from anywhere.	如今克里斯的回忆依旧鲜活，而且无论何时何地都可以看到。


Indeed, Kris will live on much more effectively – and more accessibly to all her friends.	事实上对她的所有朋友们来说，克里斯的生命将更有效地延续下去，而且变得更亲近。


Through her, they may meet one another, or they may simply be able to recall her for themselves, even as they find out new things about her that they neglected to discover while she was alive.	通过她，朋友们更容易彼此接触，或者他们仅仅能够回忆起一些关于她的往事，发现一些克里斯在世时都忽略了的新东西。


Yes, it does sharpen the memories, even as it eases the pain.	没错，这确实会在抚平伤痛的同时，将令回忆更加清晰。


Learning About Growth from Austerity	从紧缩中学懂增长


MILAN – In a recent set of studies, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff used a vast array of historical data to show that the accumulation of high levels of public (and private) debt relative to GDP has an extended negative effect on growth.	发自米兰——在最近一系列研究中，卡门·莱恩哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）使用了大量历史数据来表明处于高位的公共（及私人）债务/GDP累积对经济增长存在着长期的负面影响。


The size of the effect incited debate about errors in their calculations. Few, however, doubt the validity of the pattern.	虽然对这种影响作用范围的描述引发了人们对于他们计算缪误的讨论，但只有很少人会怀疑这种模式的有效性。


This should not be surprising.	这一点也不奇怪。


Accumulating excessive debt usually entails moving some part of domestic aggregate demand forward in time, so the exit from that debt must include more savings and diminished demand.	债务积累过多通常也会同时推动国内总需求，因此减少债务必然包含更多的储蓄和需求消失。


The negative shock adversely impacts the non-tradable sector, which is large (roughly two-thirds of an advanced economy) and wholly dependent on domestic demand.	这种负面冲击反过来会不利于非贸易部门——该部门约占发达国家经济的2/3且非常依赖国内需求。


As a result, growth and employment rates fall during the deleveraging period.	因此在去杠杆化过程中经济增长和就业率都会有所下降。


In an open economy, deleveraging does not necessarily impair the tradable sector so thoroughly.	在一个开放经济体中，贸易部门不会像非贸易部门那样受到去杠杆化如此彻底的破坏。


But, even in such an economy, years of debt-fueled domestic demand may produce a loss of competitiveness and structural distortions.	但即使如此，连续几年由债务推动的国内需求也有可能导致竞争力丧失，经济结构扭曲。


And the crises that often divide the leveraging and deleveraging phases cause additional balance-sheet damage and prolong the healing process.	而通常位于负债运行和去杠杆化时期两者之间的危机也会对资产负债表造成额外损害并拖累恢复进程。


Thanks in part to research by Reinhart and Rogoff, we know that excessive leverage is unsustainable, and that restoring balance takes time.	部分得益于莱恩哈特和罗格夫的研究，我们知道过度杠杆化是不可持续的，恢复平衡也需要时间。


As a result, questions and doubts remain about an eventual return to the pre-crisis trend line for GDP, and especially for employment.	因此人们仍然会怀疑GDP尤其是就业水平是否能恢复到危机前的趋势水平上。


What this line of research explicitly does not tell us is that deleveraging will restore growth by itself.	这一系列研究没有明确告诉我们的是去杠杆化本身就能实现经济增长的恢复。


No one believes that fiscal balance is the whole growth model anywhere.	没有人相信财政平衡能在任何地方成为一个完整的增长模式。


Consider southern Europe. From the standpoint of growth and employment, public and private debt masked an absence of productivity growth, declining competitiveness in the tradable sector, and a range of underlying structural shortcomings – including labor-market rigidities, deficiencies in education and skills training, and underinvestment in infrastructure.	以南欧为例,从经济增长和就业的角度来看，公共和私人债务掩盖了以下事实：生产率缺乏增长，贸易部门竞争力下降，以及一系列根本的结构性缺陷——包括劳动力市场僵化、教育和技能培训缺乏以及对基础设施投资不足。


Debt drove growth, creating aggregate demand that would not have existed otherwise.	是负债在推动经济增长，创造出原本不可能存在的总需求。


(The same is true of the United States and Japan, though the details differ.)	（虽然细节有所不同，但同样的情况在美国和日本也出现了。 ）


Government is not the sole actor in this.	这种情况下,政府并不是惟一的参与者。


When the deleveraging cycle begins, the private sector starts to adjust structurally – a pattern clearly seen in the data on growth in the tradable side of the US economy.	当去杠杆化周期开始时，私人企业会开始作结构性调整——在美国经济贸易部门的增长数据中可以清晰看到这样的模式。


Muted wage growth increases competitiveness, and underutilized labor and capital are redeployed.	工资增长停滞增加了竞争力，原本未被充分利用劳动力和资本也得到了重新部署。


How fast this happens partly depends on the private sector’s flexibility and dynamism.	这一切会发生得多快部分取决于私企的灵活性和活力。


But it also depends on the ability and willingness of government to provide a bridging function for the deficiency in aggregate demand, and to pursue reforms and investments that boost long-term growth prospects.	也取决于政府为总需求不足提供���接功能，追求实现长期增长前景的改革和投资的意愿和能力。


If public-sector deleveraging is not a complete growth policy – and it isn’t – why is there so much attention on fiscal austerity and so little action (as opposed to lip service) on growth and employment?	如果公共去杠杆化并不是一个完整的增长政策——事实上确实不是——那为什么人们这么关注财政紧缩而不去切实促进（而不只是口头上说说）增长和就业呢？


Several possibilities – not mutually exclusive – come to mind.	我想到了几种可能——它们之间并不冲突。


One is that some policymakers think that fiscal balance really is the main pillar in a growth strategy: Deleverage quickly and get on with it.	首先是有些政策制定者认为财政平衡确实是经济增长策略的主要支柱：所以要快速去杠杆化并抓紧干。


The belief that the fiscal multiplier is usually low may have contributed to underestimation of the short-run economic costs of austerity policies – and thus to persistently optimistic forecasts of growth and employment.	那种认为财政乘数通常很低这种观点也导致人们低估了财政紧缩政策的短期经济成本——从而促使人们坚持乐观地预测经济增长和就业前景。


Recent research by the International Monetary Fund on the context-specific variability of fiscal multipliers has raised serious questions about the costs and effectiveness of rapid fiscal consolidation.	国际货币基金组织对特定情况下财政乘数可变性的近期研究已经对快速财政调整的成本和有效性提出了严重的质疑。


Estimates of the fiscal multiplier must be based on an assumption or a model that says what would have happened in the absence of government spending of some type.	对财政乘数的估计必须基于一个假设或一个模型——这种模型会指明如果缺乏某种类型的政府支出会发生什么。


If the assumption or the model is wrong, so is the estimate.	如果这种假设或模型是错误的，那么由此得出的估计也是错误的。


The counterfactual needs to be made explicit and assessed carefully and in context.	这种与事实相反的情况需要在具体情况下做出清晰仔细地评估。


In some countries with high levels of debt and impaired growth, fiscal stimulus could raise the risk premium on sovereign debt and be counterproductive; others have more flexibility.	在一些高负债且经济增长受损的国家，财政刺激可能会提高主权债务的风险溢价而起到相反的作用； 其它国家则有更大的灵活性。


Countries vary widely in terms of household balance-sheet damage, which clearly affects the propensity to save – and hence the multiplier effect.	就家庭资产负债表损害（这种损害显然影响了人们的储蓄倾向）而言，各个国家的差异很大——乘数效应也是如此。


Uncertainty is a reality, and judgment is required.	既然不确定性是一种现实，我们就需要判断力来支撑。


Then there is the time dimension.	然后还有时间的问题。


If infrastructure investment, for example, generates some growth and employment in the short to medium term and higher sustainable growth in the longer term, should we rule it out because some estimates of the multiplier are less than one?	例如，如果基础设施投资在中短期能够推动经济增长增加就业，又能在长期保持更高的可持续增长，那我们要不要因为有些人估计该乘数小于1而放弃？


Similarly, if fiscal stimulus has a muted effect because the recipients of the income are saving to restore damaged household balance sheets, it is not clear we want to discount the accelerated deleveraging benefit, even if it shows up in domestic demand only later.	同样地，如果人们把收入存起来以弥补受到损害的家庭资产负债表，从而导致财政刺激效果趋缓，我们也并不一定会低估加速去杠杆化的好处，即使它需要推后一段时间才能在国内需求上体现出来。


Policymakers (and perhaps financial markets) may have believed that central banks would provide an adequate bridging function through aggressive unconventional monetary policy designed to hold down short- and long-term interest rates.	政策制定者（也许还有金融市场）可能认为中央银行会通过激进的非常规货币政策（这是用来压制短期及长期利率的）来提供足够的桥接功能。


Certainly central banks have played a critical role.	当然央行确实扮演着重要的作用。


But central banks have stated that they do not have the policy instruments to accelerate the pace of economic recovery.	但是各国央行已经表明它们并没有用来加速经济复苏速度的政策工具。


Among the costs and risks of their low-interest-rate policies are a return to the leveraged growth pattern and growing uncertainty about the limits of a central bank’s balance-sheet expansion.	这些国家的低利率政策隐含着成本和风险，而其中包括令经济恢复到杠杆型增长模式以及央行资产负债表扩张局限性所带来的不确定性。


In other words, will the elevated asset values caused by low discount rates suddenly reset downward at some point?	换言之，低利率引发的资产价值提升会在某个时候突然倒退到之前的水平吗？


No one knows.	没有人知道答案。


Countries are subject to varying degrees of fiscal constraint, assuming (especially in the case of Europe) a limited appetite for unlimited, unconditional cross-border transfers.	各个国家都受到不同程度的财政制约，试想一下（尤其是欧洲）有限的容量面对无限且无条件的跨境转移。


Those that have some flexibility can and should use it to protect the unemployed and the young, accelerate deleveraging, and implement reforms designed to support growth and employment; others’ options – and thus their medium-term growth prospects – are more constrained.	那些有灵活性的国家可以也应该用这种灵活性来保护失业者和年轻人，加速去杠杆化，并实施用来支持增长和促进就业的改革； 其它国家的选择——以及它们的中期增长前景——就比较受限制。


All countries – and policymakers – face difficult choices concerning the timing of austerity, perceived sovereign-credit risk, growth-oriented reforms, and equitable sharing of the costs of restoring growth.	所有的国家——和政策制定者——都面临着与紧缩时间长短、可预知的主权信用风险、以经济增长为导向的改革以及公平分担恢复经济增长成本的艰难选择。


So far, the burden-sharing challenge, along with naive and incomplete growth models, may have contributed to gridlock and inaction.	迄今为止，分担负担的挑战，以及幼稚和不完整的增长模型也可能导致了僵局和不作为。


Experience can be a harsh, though necessary, teacher.	经验可能是一个必要但却残酷的老师。


Growth will not be restored easily or quickly.	要恢复经济增长不容易也不会很快做到。


Perhaps we needed the preoccupation with austerity to teach us the value of a balanced growth agenda.	也许我们需要紧缩来教导自己一条平衡增长道路的可贵。


Moving Pictures	与时俱进的画片


CANNES – This year’s Cannes Film Festival was marked by a profound contrast between what unfolded along La Croisette, the palm-lined sweep of pedestrian walkway that stretches between swathes of luxury hotels and the azure Mediterranean, and the films debuting onscreen.	发自戛纳——今年戛纳电影节的最特别之处，莫过于在海滨大道(La Croisette)这条棕榈成荫，蜿蜒在大片豪华酒店与湛蓝地中海之间的长廊上所展示的奢华图景，与银幕上首次亮相的电影所反映的内容之间所存在着的某种强烈反差。


Outside all was glitter, excess, posturing, and brand names.	会场之外，一切仍是那样的流光跃金，穷奢极欲，矫揉造作，名牌横行。


Young women in five-inch heels and revealing clothing prowled for wealthy men – or were imported by them to decorate boats and premiere parties.	脚踏5英寸高跟鞋、衣着暴露的美女们的目光在各式富豪身上游移——也可能是富豪们有意把她们带来为自己的游艇和首映礼增色的。


Every night, the parade of stars up the red carpet, flanked by photographers, played out like a relic of a more ritualistic time.	每晚，那些被摄影师们众星拱月般围绕的巨星在红地毯上搔首弄姿，似乎在举行一场老气横秋的仪式。


Inside the Palais, the hulking brutalist structure where the films are screened, this year’s lineup was filled with tales of ordinary people, or poor people, struggling with the fallout of the global issues that increasingly unite us – or confronting painful political conflicts that official histories had laid to rest.	而在展播影片的巨大野兽派风格大殿内，今年参赛电影的主题却清一色是关于普通人或穷人如何与那些日益将我们联结起来的世界性问题作斗争的故事——或者是如何与那些被官方历史所掩盖的惨痛政治冲突相抗争的。


If in the past Cannes showcased films telling a hundred different kinds of stories, this year’s offerings made clear that in an increasingly flattened and wired world, there is really only one story – with a hundred different inflections.	如果说过去的戛纳电影节所展示的电影包含上百种主题，那么，今年的参赛电影清晰地反映了这么一个现实，那就是在一个日益扁平化和联网化的世界里，故事的主题有且只有一个，只不过有一百种讲法罢了。


Thai cinema’s gifted young director Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s film, Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives, won the Palme d’Or.	泰国电影界青年天才导演阿彼察邦·韦拉斯哈古凭借影片《能召回前世的布米叔叔》赢得了金棕榈奖。


It is a Spanish-German-French-British-Thai co-production, the kind of international collaborative effort we are increasingly seeing in film – a form of cross-border collaboration that should point the way to other forms of global civil-society projects.	这是一部由西班牙，德国，法国，英国和泰国联手打造的影片，我们可以在越来越多的电影制作过程中看到类似的国际合作——而这种做法也为其他形式的市民社会项目指明了道路。


The film, whose production was slowed by the “red shirt” revolt in Thailand, deals in part with themes of past violence.	该部曾因泰国“红衫军”骚乱而延缓了拍摄进度的电影讲述的是泰国历史上的暴力事件。


At one point, the project – which is also part of a massive art installation – refers to the history of a village: local teenagers recount that, “Soldiers once occupied this place. They killed and tortured villagers and forced them to flee to the jungle.”	从某个角度讲，这部片——同时也是一个巨型装置艺术的一部分——反映的是一座泰国村庄的历史：当地青年回忆说：“军队曾经占领过这个地方，还杀害和折磨村民，逼得他们只好逃到深山老林里去。


Poetry, by South Korean director Lee Chang-Dong, also deals with a family reconciling themselves through pain to a prior conflict.	而韩国导演李沧东制作的影片《诗》同样也是表达一个家庭如何抚平从前冲突所留下的伤痛。


It tells the story of an elderly woman who is forced to face her past as a torturer.	它讲述了一位曾经身为虐待者的老妇人如何面对自己的过去的故事。


Other films address a conflict that is closer to home here in France.	另一部参赛电影则是讲述一场与主办国法国密切相关冲突。


Outside the Law, directed by Rachid Bouchareb, narrates the story of the massacre at Setif, Algeria, in May 1945.	拉契得·波查拉导演的《法外之徒》讲述的是1945年5月在阿尔及利亚的塞提夫所发生的大屠杀。


The film tracks the events surrounding three Algerian brothers over a 35-year period, and brings to light aspects of the massacre that had been considered taboo in France.	影片围绕三名阿尔及利亚同胞兄弟来讲述整个事件，时间跨度长达35年，揭示了这场一直被法国人视为禁忌的屠杀事件。


Strikingly, Outside the Law is a Franco-Algerian production, and it has already caused political controversy: it was denounced by Lionnel Luca, a French deputy who is, as one French periodical put it, “nostalgic for a French Algeria.”	出乎意料的是，《法外之徒》这部电影是法国和阿尔及利亚联合制作的； 而预料之中的是，这部片引起了政治上的争议：正如一本法国刊物写道，“怀念法属阿尔及利亚”的法国议员里欧内·吕卡对该片大加指责。


The film actually sparked a noisy protest along La Croisette, with French veterans defensively and aggressively singing “La Marseillaise,” even as couples dressed in black tie and gowns swept in a parallel path to the evening's festivities.	而海滨大道上则爆发了强烈抗议，大群法国老兵为自己当年的行为辩护，还咄咄逼人地唱起了《马赛曲》，而就在此时，身着盛装的来宾们正在另一条与之平行的路上鱼贯前往晚会。


In response, the mayor of Cannes organized a ceremony to commemorate all victims of the French-Algerian conflict.	作为紧急应对措施，戛纳市长专门组织了一场旨在纪念法国与阿尔及利亚冲突中所有牺牲者的悼念会。


Still another film reawakens not-so-distant American history and casts it in a radically altered light: Doug Liman’s Fair Game reinterprets the Valerie Plame/Joe Wilson scandal of 2003, and reveals that Plame was far from being a glorified secretary, as the Bush administration had portrayed her.	还有一部电影重温了不久之前的一段美国往事，却以彻底相反的角度来录制的电影：道格·李曼的《公平游戏》一片重新诠释了瓦莱丽·普拉姆和约瑟夫·威尔逊在2003年爆出的丑闻，并指出普拉姆根本不是如布什政府所称的仅仅是个出色的秘书。


On the contrary, she led a team that intercepted components of nuclear weapons at their source, whisked them away to the United States, altered them slightly so that they would not work, and replaced them.	相反，她带领着一个团队，执行从源头上截取核武器的组件，迅速转移到美国，稍作修改以使之失效，再替换回去的任务。


So the Bush administration’s leak of her identity ended not just her career, but also a sensitive program that had kept us all safe.	因此，布什政府对她身份的泄露，不但结束了她的特工生涯，也暴露了一个保障我们安全的敏感项目。


Other films simply tell stories of people who are not usually portrayed by film.	还有一些电影单纯是讲述那些经常不为电影所关注的人们的故事。


Los Labios, an Argentine project directed by Santiago Loza and Ivan Fund, simply follows three government-funded nurses who go to a rural area to serve the needs of the impoverished local population.	由阿根廷导演圣地亚哥·洛扎和伊万·方德所执导的电影《唇》就是主要讲述三位政府资助的护士前往贫困山区为贫苦大众服务的故事。


It humbly tracks their accounting of cases of malnourishment, alcoholism, diseases of poverty, and the ravages of unemployment and inadequate medical care.	电影忠实地记录了她们所遇到的营养不良，酒精中毒，各种贫困所导致的疾病以及失业和缺乏医疗保健所造成的危害等各种事件。


Similarly, Sergei Loznitsa’s My Joy simply explores the life of a Ukrainian truck driver named Georgy, who gets lost and finds himself in an archetypal Russian village, where he is drawn into daily life.	与此类似，谢尔盖·洛兹尼察的电影《我的幸福》主要是讲述了一位名叫格奥尔基的乌克兰籍卡车司机的一生，他在荒郊迷了路，发现自己身处在一个典型的俄罗斯村庄之中，并随之卷入了当地居民的日常生活。


This is a real cinema of humility – the directors again and again have chosen to take seriously the dramas and struggles of ordinary people and find the heroism or tragedy therein.	这些才是真正关于人性的电影——导演们一次又一次地选择严肃看待普通大众的遭遇和抗争，并从中发掘潜藏的英雄主义或悲剧情节。


What does it all mean?	那么这样做的意义何在？


The many movies that critically revise settled national narratives suggest that people are no longer willing to accept history that has been crafted by elites for their own purposes.	如此多的电影选择彻底颠覆既定的国家叙事方式，暗示人们不再愿意盲目接受由精英们出于其自身的目的而塑造出来的历史。


In most cases, the directors researched their own films by interviewing sources who were close to the action, or close to the main events at a grassroots level.	在大部分电影中，导演采取直接采访接近现实行动的那些人，或从草根层面去探索重大事件，由此来研究制作他们自己的电影。


That is an exciting development, though initially it implies a messier historical narrative.	尽管咋看起来，这样的叙事显得有点凌乱，但这却是一个令人兴奋的发展。


In Bouchareb’s film, for example, there is not a unified story of the occupation of Algeria, but many points of view that a young French teenager (or French-Algerian teenager) can witness and draw from.	以波查拉的电影为例，影片中没有对法国占领阿尔及利亚一事并未采取某种定论，而是通过一位法国年轻人（或法属阿尔及利亚的年轻人）所见证并得出的观点来呈现整个事件。


That is surely good, especially in an open society.	这是件相当不错的事，对一个开放社会来说尤其如此。


So is the focus of other films on the struggles of ordinary people.	其他那些关注普罗大众的奋斗的电影也有异曲同工的效果。


To be sure, simply championing populism for its own sake – a Stalinist or New Left reflex – makes for bad art.	可以肯定的是，那种只为自己吹捧谋利的民粹主义——如斯大林主义者或新左派的所作所为——只能产生低劣的艺术。


But the flattening of the world has led to a flattening of the kinds of people who can be seen as heroes or seekers.	扁平化的世界已经导致了各种人群的扁平化，他们谁都可以被看成是英雄或探索者。


By bringing these subjects into focus, great film directors have gained a larger and more representative world of stories from which to work their magic.	通过关注这些主题，伟大的电影导演已经找到了一个更广阔，更具代表性的故事世界来作为素材，并以此展现出自己的神奇。


Ms. Europe or Frau Germania?	欧洲夫人还是德国妇女？


BERLIN – Just what is the matter with Angela Merkel?	柏林 —— 安格拉·默克尔怎么搞的？


Only a short while ago, she was celebrated as “Ms. Europe”; now, she increasingly gives the impression of being Frau Germania.	前一阵儿她还被誉为“欧洲夫人”，现如今，她变得越来越像一个德国妇女。


Instead of providing resolute leadership in the global financial and economic crisis, the European Union’s largest economy is withdrawing into its shell.	在应对全球金融、经济危机的节骨眼儿上，德国这个全欧盟最大的经济体并没有表现出举足轻重的领导力，反而不断缩回到自家的螺丝壳里。


Germany has always been the motor of European integration, in accordance with its political and economic interests.	德国一向是欧洲一体化的发动机，这也符合它的政治、经济利益。


Every post-World War II government has always been willing to harness Germany’s financial strength to further that aim, i.e., to foot the bill for Europe.	为了推进这一目标，二战后历届德国政府都愿意动用本国的财力，也就是说，为欧洲埋单。


The motto was simple: Germany gives and profits in turn.	它们的口号很简单：有付出，才有回报。


Should Germany spurn the first part of this formula, the European project would suffer serious damage – and so will German national interests.	假如德国拒绝了口号的前半部分，欧洲一体化方案就会受到严重损害，德国的国家利益也会连带受损。


Yet this is the direction in which Chancellor Merkel seems to be heading.	然而，默克尔总理似乎正朝着这个不祥的方向走去。


Indeed, in the wake of the Greek crisis, Merkel spoke publicly of the need to be able to exclude eurozone members that do not play by the rules.	在希腊危机爆发后，默克尔居然真的当众表示，对于那些不按规矩来的欧元区成员国，需要有退出机制。


Does she seriously believe that the euro and the EU would survive such punitive action?	难道她真以为，出台这样的惩罚性措施，不会威胁到欧元乃至欧盟的生存吗？


Instead of ideas for strengthening the solidarity and stability of the eurozone, absurd proposals are floated in Berlin.	柏林不去想一些主意巩固欧元区的安定团结，反而瞎琢磨一些荒谬的提议。


The idea that Germany would show financial solidarity with weakened eurozone members only if they accept draconian stabilization measures is similarly unrealistic.	还有一个念头也是不切实际的：那些虚弱的欧元国家先得接受一整套苛刻的财政整改措施，德国才会向它们表现出财务团结的善意。


Such measures would only exacerbate deflation in these countries, which are the most important markets for German exports.	那样的整改措施只会加剧那些国家的通货紧缩，而它们恰恰是德国最重要的出口市场。


What is essential is the right combination of stability and financial aid, even if the latter is unpopular with the German public.	德国最起码应该把整改方案和资金援助恰当地结合起来，即便德国公众不乐意德国出资援助他国。


To be sure, eurozone member states also needed the courage to respond to the crisis of confidence confronting the common currency with concerted action for tighter control of national budgets and improved cooperation.	当然，欧元区成员国也需要表现出足够的勇气，协力加强预算控制，增进合作，以回应其共同货币所面临的信心危机。


As a first step, however, Greece must be given help, through the financial solidarity of EU governments.	但第一步，必须激发起欧盟的财政团结之心，先帮希腊一把。


On the other hand, foreign criticism of Germany for running a current-account surplus similar to China’s is unfounded.	另一方面，外国批评德国，说它像中国一样维持着经常项目盈余，是没根据的。


Such criticism disregards two important differences: first, unlike China, Germany, as a member of the eurozone, cannot undervalue its currency.	此类批评忽略了德国和中国的两个重要差异：第一，作为欧元区成员国，德国不可能低估本币汇率。


Second, German “exports” go mainly to the EU.	第二，德国的“出口”主要销往欧盟。


To demand that Germany should stop increasing its competitiveness, or even reduce it, is simply bizarre.	要求德国不再提升其出口竞争力，甚至让它有所回落，则简直是无理取闹。


From 1990 to 2005, Germany struggled with high unemployment, slow growth, and low competitiveness, and Europe’s economy suffered as a result.	从 1990 年到 2005 年，德国在高失业、低增长和低竞争力的困境中苦苦挣扎，而欧洲经济也跟着熬了一段苦日子。


Recovery was difficult to achieve, but the Common Market has profited from Germany’s renewed competitiveness.	如今，即便整体复苏很难做到，但德国竞争力的回升已令整个欧洲共同市场受益。


The crucial point is not the German economy’s renewed strength, but whether Germany will use this strength in Europe’s interest or its own.	问题的关键不在于德国经济实力是否有所回升，而在于德国打算用它的实力来干什么，是去维护欧洲的共同利益呢，还是维护一己私利。


Unfortunately, Merkel seems to have decided on the second option, because it entails fewer domestic political risks.	不幸的是，默克尔似乎依然决心选择后者，因为后者所蕴含的国内政治风险比较小。


The responsibility for the current conflict within the EU rests with eurozone governments, but primarily with Germany and France, the zone’s two strongest economies.	欧盟内部目前的分歧，欧元区各国政府都难辞其咎，但最主要的责任在于最大的两个欧元经济体 —— 德国和法国。


Rather than lead, the Franco-German couple is constantly, and publicly, at each other’s throats.	它们非但不去带好这个头，反而不断公开相互拆台。


While today’s quarrel is about who should pay for restructuring Greece, the real issue is the latent distrust between the two partners, which carries the danger of a permanent estrangement.	今日的争执，表面上是谁来为希腊债务重组埋单的问题，深层次上则体现了法德之间潜在的不信任，这搞不好会弄出一场“同床异梦”的闹剧。


From the German point of view, France only wants to solve its national budget and debt problems at Germany’s expense, simultaneously weakening Germany’s competitiveness.	在德国看来，法国只想解决自己的预算和债务问题，让德国做牺牲，同时削弱其竞争力。


The French government, on the other hand, fears that the Germans’ commitment to eurozone stability is a ploy aimed at pushing France into a corner and leaving it behind economically.	法国政府则担心，德国对稳定欧元区那么上心，会不会是一个算计法国的阴招，好从经济上把它甩到后头去。


Since the global crisis erupted in the fall of 2008, both Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have been faced with threats that their political majorities might disappear if they put aside their national interests in favor of a European compromise.	由于本轮全球危机爆发于 2008 年秋天，当时默克尔和法国总统尼古拉·萨尔科齐都不得不为了国家利益而牺牲欧盟层面上的妥协，否则有可能会丧失政治上的多数优势。


France has no chance of meeting Germany’s stabilization objectives unless Sarkozy wants to forget about re-election.	除非萨尔科齐忘掉连选连任这回事儿，否则法国绝不会在欧元稳定目标上附和德国。


Merkel would cause outrage among her conservative voters (as well as court defeat at the German Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe) should she agree to a more free-spending policy, including any direct financial assistance for Greece.	而默克尔如果支持更宽松的支出政策，包括向希腊直接提供资金援助，就会惹恼她的保守派选民，并且有可能被卡尔斯鲁厄的德国宪法法院裁定为违宪。


Soon, Helmut Kohl, Europe’s Honorary Citizen and Germany’s Chancellor of Reunification, will be celebrating his 80th birthday.	很快就是赫尔穆特·科尔的 80 大寿了。


As is usual on such occasions, there will be a lot of lofty speeches about Europe.	在这位欧洲荣誉公民、德国统一总理的寿辰，我们肯定能听到一大堆关于欧洲的崇高言辞。


But, in view of the current situation, we can safely ignore these.	但鉴于当前形势，我们完全不必把那些话当真。


What Europe needs in this serious crisis are statesmen and women of Kohl’s caliber, not domestic politicians!	在严峻的危机面前，欧洲需要的是像科尔一样有能力的治国贤才，而不是擅于搞国内政治的政客！


As the big economic and political winner of the eurozone, Germany, in particular, cannot let a serious crisis of confidence threaten the European project, because nearly two-thirds of its exports go to the EU.	作为欧元区在经济和政治上的最大受益者，德国尤其不能坐视欧洲一体化进程陷入信心危机，因为它有三分之二的出口是销往欧盟市场的。


Ever since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it has been clear that the global crisis would challenge the EU and the euro, because Europe lacks a common government and fiscal policy.	自从 2008 年 9 月雷曼兄弟倒闭以来，欧盟和欧元势必受冲击的事实已经变得很清楚，因为欧洲缺乏统一的政府和财政政策。


Coordination within the eurozone – above all between its most important economies, France and Germany – is therefore all the more important.	因此，欧元区内部的协作，尤其是法国与德国之间的协作已变得前所未有地重要。


It is in Berlin and Paris, first and foremost, that the crisis-management strategy for the eurozone must be decided.	欧元区的危机管理决策，首先要在柏林和巴黎作出。


Mubarak’s Last Laugh?	穆巴拉克的最后一笑？


CAIRO – August 3, 2011, will be remembered as a historic day in Egypt.	开罗——2011年8月3日将是埃及历史上永远被人铭记的一天。


Former President Hosni Mubarak was put on public trial, together with his two sons and his ex-interior minister, General Habib el-Adly.	前总统穆巴拉克被推上了公共审判席，与他一起走入法庭的还有他的两个儿子和前内政部长埃尔-阿杜里将军（General Habib el-Adly）。


The repercussions for Egypt, indeed for the entire Arab world, will be profound.	这一事件将给埃及（事实上是整个阿拉伯世界）带来深远影响。


This is not the first time that an Arab dictator has been put on trial.	这并不是阿拉伯独裁者第一次被推上审判席。


Saddam Hussein and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali preceded Mubarak in the dock.	萨达姆·侯赛因和本·阿里已经先于穆巴拉克“享受”了这一待遇。


Hussein was tried with the help of a United States-led coalition; Ben Ali was tried and convicted in absentia, after fleeing to Saudi Arabia.	萨达姆的被捕受以美国为首的联盟之助甚深； 本·阿里则是在逃往沙特后被缺席审判的。


But in Egypt, “It was done exclusively by Egyptians for Egypt,” as a friend put it to me.	但在埃及，正如一位朋友告诉我的，“完全是埃及人在埃及做到了这件事”，“这就是我们为何对此如此自豪的原因。


“That is why we are so proud of it.”	”


But the run-up to the trial was contentious.	但穆巴拉克的审判过程可能会引起争议。


On July 29, many organizations staged a large protest in Cairo’s Tahrir to highlight the unity of Egypt’s revolutionaries (whose demands included a public trial of Mubarak).	7月29日，不少组织在开罗解放广场举行了示威，以示埃及革命者之间的合作无间（公审穆巴拉克便是他们的要求之一）。


Instead, the protest exposed the dramatic polarization between Islamists and secularists since Mubarak’s ouster.	但这次示威表明，伊斯兰主义者和世俗派之间在穆巴拉克被废黜后出现了深刻分歧。


Moreover, it revealed the potent capacity of Egypt’s Salafis to mobilize supporters, who were the overwhelming majority in Tahrir Square that day.	此外，这次示威还表明，埃及沙拉菲（Salafi）在动员支持者方面具有很大的能量，他们构成了解放广场示威的压倒多数。


Other groups, including the leftist April 6 Youth Movement and the multi-ideological Coalition of the Revolution’s Youth, looked minute and insignificant.	其他团体，包括极左翼的4·6青年运动（April 6 Youth Movement）和多意识形态的革命青年联盟（Coalition of the Revolution’s Youth）在内，则显得微不足道。


As a result, many secular activists ended their week-long sit-in and withdrew from Tahrir Square.	因此，许多世俗活跃分子结束了长达一周的静坐，撤离了解放广场。


Ironically, this was what the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) wanted, and it was achieved at no cost in violence or military tribunals.	讽刺的是，这正是执政的军事最高委员会（Supreme Council of the Armed Forces，SCAF）所想看到的状况，如此一来，SCAF不费吹灰之力就在没有任何暴力和军事审判的情况下达到了目的。


Chants of “islamiyya, islamiyya” (Islamic, Islamic) were enough.	高喊“伊斯兰、伊斯兰”足矣。


With no representative institutions and the military in control of the country, street mobilization has become the main tool of Egyptian politics.	在没有代表制度且军队被国家所掌握的情况下，街头动员已成为埃及政治的主要形式。


Following the March 19 referendum, in which most Islamists campaigned for a package of constitutional amendments and got 77% support, secularists took to the streets, mobilizing behind their own demands.	在3月19日的全民公决后（绝大多数伊斯兰主义者在这次公决中支持最终获得了77%支持率的宪法修正方案），世俗派在自身要求的驱使下走上了街头。


Those demands were mostly uncontroversial for Egypt’s revolutionaries, including Islamists: the release of political prisoners; a halt to military tribunals for civilians; prosecution of the murderers of protesters (many of whom are senior police officers); a purge of corrupt Mubarak allies from the police force; and a public trial for Mubarak and his regime’s top henchmen.	这些要求大体上与其他埃及革命者并不冲突，包括伊斯兰主义者在内：释放政治犯； 停止用军事法庭审判平民；


But then came some controversial demands.	但相互冲突的要求也不少。


Fearing that elections might bring an Islamist majority to Parliament and to the assembly that will write a new constitution, most secularists demanded supra-constitutional principles (akin to a bill of rights, with a few twists) or a constitution to be enforced by the SCAF before elections.	由于担心选举结果会产生一个伊斯兰主义者占多数地位的议会和新宪法起草委员会，大多数世俗派要求制定最高宪法原则（类似于人权法案，但有所不同），或是由SCAF在选举前修订宪法。


They staged street demonstrations, mobilized media pressure, and lobbied the SCAF.	为此他们走上街头，动员媒体，并游说SCAF。


It worked.	世俗派的努力收到了成效。


The SCAF announced that it is forming a body of constitutional experts to craft several versions of a potential constitution.	SCAF宣布它正在组建一个宪法专家小组来起草多种不同版本的备选宪法。


Obviously, the SCAF has its own calculations, which probably have less to do with protecting a liberal Egypt than with protecting the military’s financial independence and shielding itself from accountability to civilian institutions.	显然，SCAF有自己的算盘，它也许并不太愿意捍卫自由的埃及，而更愿意捍卫军队的财务独立性以及让自己免于民事机构的审查。


The secularists’ gains were a wake-up call for the Islamists, and they responded en masse on July 29.	世俗派的得势不啻对伊斯兰主义者的当头棒喝。 伊斯兰主义者在7月29日集体爆发了。


But Egypt’s old-line Muslim Brotherhood, with all of its factions, tendencies, and offshoots, no longer appears to be the country’s dominant Islamist force, as Salafis challenge the Brotherhood’s traditional hegemony.	但老牌的埃及穆斯林兄弟会（Muslim Brotherhood）内部派系众多，无法拧成一股绳，因此已不再是埃及主要伊斯兰势力，沙拉菲已开始挑战穆斯林兄弟会的传统统治地位。


The Salafis are defined in part by their strict theological orthodoxy.	沙拉菲部分可以用其严格的正统意识形态来定义。


Their belief in the superiority of literal interpretations of Islamic texts and their deep animosity towards religious innovation (broadly defined) reflect their certainty that the first three generations of Muslims possessed the best understanding of Islam, and should provide guidance for future generations.	他们对伊斯兰经典的原教旨释义深信不疑，对（广义）宗教创新怀着深刻的仇视，因此，他们认定最初的三代穆斯林掌握着对伊斯兰教义的最准确的理解，穆斯林后代应该按照他们的指示行事���


But Salafism is also a powerful source of personal identity, shaped and reinforced by a common form of dress and style of beard, a high degree of social conservatism, and a generally negative (but nuanced) perception of liberal individualism.	但沙拉菲也具有强烈的个人身份标签，他们穿着相似，留着同样形状的胡子，持有非常保守的社会观念，通常对自由个人主义持（存在细微差异的）否定态度。 “我是埃及人，因此我很自豪；


“I raise my head high as I am an Egyptian, and I raise my head even higher as I am a Salafi,” an assistant of a leading Salafi sheikh proudly told me.	我同时还是沙拉菲，这令我更加自豪。 ”一位沙拉菲精神领袖的助理骄傲地对我说。


At the same time, Salafis’ social origins, organizational structures, political behavior, and even their views on democracy, violence, and state authority, are quite varied.	与此同时，沙拉菲的社会出身、组织结构、政治行为，甚至他们对民主、暴力和国家权力的理解绝不是整齐划一的。


Decentralized organization, multiple leaderships, and conflicting ideological stances make the Salafi trend amorphous, volatile, and susceptible to manipulation and infiltration.	去中心化的组织、多极的领导层以及相互冲突的意识形态立场使得沙拉菲总是处于一盘散沙的状态，组织结构很不稳定，很容易受到操纵和渗透。


That has been the pattern observed in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. Egypt may follow.	阿尔及利亚、沙特和也门已经提供了前车之鉴，埃及很有可能会步它们后尘。


At the moment, Egyptian liberals’ main concern should be their popular appeal and ability to mobilize support, rather than picking fights with the Salafis and trying to enforce a constitution by any means, democratic or not.	此时此刻，埃及自由派的主要担忧应该是公众支持度和动员支持者的能力，而不是和沙拉菲作斗争，不惜一切代价推出一部宪法（不管方式是不是民主）。


During its transition period (1988-1991), Algeria’s secularists crafted a pluralist constitution that excluded religious parties.	在阿尔及利亚转型时期（1988—1991年），世俗派起草了一份排斥宗教党派的多元性宪法。


Yet, when parliamentary elections were held in 1991 – more than two years after the constitution was adopted – the Islamic Salvation Front still won.	但是，在1991年举行的议会选举中（此时距离这份宪法被采纳已逾两年），胜出的依然是伊斯兰拯救阵线（Islamic Salvation Front）。


The Algerian secularists’ strategy of exclusion, fraud, cheating, and gerrymandering backfired badly: Islamists were perceived as victims, while secularists – with some exceptions – were cast as unprincipled opportunists.	阿尔及利亚世俗派的策略——排斥、欺诈、作弊和操纵——最后搬起石头砸了自己的脚：伊斯兰主义者被视为受害者，而世俗派（除了某些例外）背上了无耻机会主义者的恶名。


Enforcing a secular constitution before elections does not guarantee a secular outcome.	在选举前强化世俗宪法并不能保证世俗的结果。


Popular support does.	民众的支持才是结果的决定者。


Unity among the former revolutionary opposition is critical for the success of any democratic transition, and Egypt is no exception.	与昔日革命反对者联合起来是任何民主转型成功的关键所在，埃及也不例外。


The public trial of Mubarak shows what united demands can achieve.	对穆巴拉克的公审表明，一致的要求是可以达成的。


Egyptian and other Arab revolutionaries should therefore keep the lessons of July 29 and August 3 in minds.	埃及和其他阿拉伯革命者因此应该铭记7月29日和8月3日的教训。


Unity now can bring justice and freedom later.	今天的团结可以带来明天的公正与自由。


Polarization will bring neither.	分歧则正好相反。


Mubarak’s Odious Debts	穆巴拉克的恶意债务


NEW YORK – A glance at Egypt’s public finances reveals a disturbing fact: the interest that the country pays on its foreign loans is larger than its budget for education, healthcare, and housing combined.	纽约——埃及公共财政揭示了一个令人不安的事实：付给外国贷款的利息超过了教育、医疗和住房预算之和。


Indeed, these debt-service costs alone account for 22% of the Egyptian government’s total expenditures.	事实上，债务利息支出一项就占到了埃及政府总支出的22%。


The impact has become impossible to ignore.	所造成的影响是无法忽略的。


With growing political uncertainty and a slowing economy, Egypt is likely to witness decreasing government revenues, increasing demands for urgent spending, and rising interest rates on government borrowing.	随着政治不确定性的增加和经济增长的减速，埃及的政府收入可能会下降，紧急支出需求可能会增加，政府借贷的利率也会水涨船高。


This could lead to a fiscal catastrophe for the government at the very moment when the country is attempting a complicated political transition.	这将带来财政崩溃的危险，而与此同时，埃及正处在复杂政治过渡的关键时刻。


Egypt’s public debt is around 80% of GDP, very close to the 90% level that economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart identify as a harbinger of slower growth and heightened vulnerability to financial and fiscal crises.	埃及公债相当于GDP的80%，与经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）和卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）所指出的90%临界点十分接近——超过90%将导致经济增长减缓、金融和财政危机风险大增。


Egyptians need only glance north, at the European debt crisis, to understand they should sort out their debt problem now, rather than waiting until it reaches Greek proportions.	只要看看北边的欧洲债务危机，埃及人就能明白，债务问题必须现在就解决，不能让埃及变成第二个希腊。


This debt was incurred during the 30-year reign of the deposed president, Hosni Mubarak.	这笔债务是下台总统穆巴拉克在其30年的统治生涯中积累下来的。


In international law, debt that is incurred without the consent of the people, and that is not used to their benefit, is referred to as “odious”; as such, it is not considered transferable to successor regimes.	根据国际法，未经人民允许而产生的债务，以及没有用于民生的债务，都属于“恶意”债务； 这类债务被认为不适合转移给继任政权。


The reasoning is simple and logical: if someone fraudulently borrows money in my name, I am not expected to pay it back, and neither should a country’s population when an unrepresentative leader borrows in their name and to their detriment.	个中原因既简单又符合逻辑：如果有人用我的大名招摇撞骗，我是不会准备偿还的，国家亦然——无代表的领导人打着人民的旗号借钱并用于伤害人民，人民也不会替他偿还。


For three decades, Mubarak’s borrowing only enriched him and his ruling clique while impoverishing and repressing the rest of Egypt.	30年来，穆巴拉克的借款肥了他自己和他的统治集团，同时却让埃及陷入了水深火热。


Corruption was rife, but not just the covert type: public money was openly used to support many businesses under flimsy pretexts like “fostering economic growth” and “creating employment.”	穆巴拉克治下的埃及腐败猖獗，称得上明火执仗：公共资金打着“振兴经济增长”、“创造就业机会”这样的拙劣旗号被用来支持商业活动。


Along with regulatory capture, this harmed competitiveness, market openness, and Egypt’s small and medium-size businesses.	腐败与管制一起伤害着埃及的竞争力、市场开放程度以及中小企业。


The beneficiaries of this largesse are now mostly sitting in prison awaiting trial.	公共资金的受益者现在都身陷囹圄等着送上审判台。


The rest of Egypt, however, only felt this money in the form of an ever-expanding state apparatus that solidified Mubarak’s rule, crushed dissent, and repressed millions.	但是，在埃及人民看来，这笔钱唯一的作用是让国家机器越来越庞大，用于巩固穆巴拉克的统治、迫害异见人士以及镇压千万埃及人民。


When Egyptians rose up against Mubarak in January, they were confronted by weapons paid for with borrowed money.	当今年1月埃及人民奋起反对穆巴拉克的时候，他们所面对的就是用这笔借来的钱所购买的枪口。


Is it fair to expect Egyptians to continue paying for their previous repression and impoverishment at the hands of Mubarak and his cronies?	现在要埃及人民继续为此前从穆巴拉克及其走狗那里得到的压迫和贫困买单，这公平吗？


Since this money clearly benefited Mubarak but not his people, should it not be Mubarak, rather than his victims, who is held responsible for it?	这笔钱很显然只是肥了穆巴拉克，人民没有获得任何好处，难道不应该由穆巴拉克——而不是他的受害者——来偿还吗？


The type of regime Mubarak was running had been clear for many years, and it was also clear how the money was being used.	穆巴拉克如何统治埃及，这在多年前就已经昭然若揭了，而如今，他如何花费借来的钱也已经水落石出。


A prudent lender should have considered these facts before making the loans.	审慎的贷款人在发放贷款之前就应该考虑到这些。


So the banks and international institutions that lent money to Mubarak should bear the responsibility of their choice to bankroll his repressive regime.	因此，借钱给穆巴拉克的银行和国际机构应该为向高压政权贷款这一行为负起责任来。


The new Egypt should make a clean break with Mubarak and his creditors, and let them sort out their business among themselves without involving the Egyptian people.	新埃及应该与穆巴拉克及其债权人划清界限，穆巴拉克归穆巴拉克，埃及人民归埃及人民。


The Egyptian government’s only role should be to help liquidate Mubarak assets for repayment should the need arise.	埃及政府的唯一角色应该是在必要时清算穆巴拉克的资产用以还债。


This would be not only fair, but it also would teach an important lesson to those who bankroll dictators – a lesson that is likely to have an immediate positive impact worldwide.	这不仅是公平问题，更能给那些借钱给独裁者的人一点教训，一点立刻可以在全世界产生正面影响的教训。


Lenders to a repressive regime will no longer expect these debts to be repaid by its successors, immediately making lenders worldwide careful about lending to them.	贷款给高压政权的人不用指望继任者会还钱，这会立刻让全世界贷款人在放款时三思而后行。


An Egyptian precedent would bring awareness and sobriety to an entire generation of lenders that is not accustomed to considering this type of risk, and that may even be unfamiliar with the doctrine of odious debt.	埃及的例子能让整整一代贷款人警醒并冷静下来。 他们还不习惯于考虑这类风险，甚至可能没怎么听说过恶意债务的说法。


Repressive regimes would find it harder to borrow, which would, in turn, make it harder for them to repress their people, and make it easier and cheaper for responsible and legitimate governments to secure important funding when they need it.	高压政权将发现很难借到钱，这反过来能让他们难以镇压其人民，也会让负责、合法的政府在需要时能够更轻松、更便宜地确保获得重要资金。


Transferring liability for foreign debt to Mubarak should not have negative economic consequences for Egypt in the long run.	把外债责任转移给穆巴拉克不会对埃及的造成长期的经济后果。


This move should not be understood as a move towards fiscal recklessness, but as a one-time break from it.	这样的举动不会被理解为财政鲁莽，而会被当作是快刀斩乱麻。


With a smaller debt burden and interest payments, Egypt’s fiscal position would improve significantly, and threats to economic growth would recede.	卸下债务负担和利息支出，埃及财政状况会得到大大改善，经济增长所受到的威胁也会随之而逝。


Foreign lenders’ resulting caution would prevent future Egyptian governments from irresponsibly saddling their populace with debt.	外国贷款人将因此更为审慎，从而能够防止未来埃及政府用债务融资来肆意蹂躏其人民。


Perhaps most importantly, the days of borrowing to build a large state security apparatus would be gone for good – worldwide.	或许最重要的是，用借来的钱来打造庞大国家安全机器的日子一去不复返了，这是一件好事，对全世界都是如此。


For the sake of Egyptians and people living under tyranny everywhere, Egypt’s government must take a brave stand.	为了埃及及其他生活在暴政统治下的人民，埃及政府应该勇敢地迈出这一步。


The Drug Industry’s Poison Pills	药品业的毒丸


BOSTON – One does not need to spend a lifetime in the global health-care sector to appreciate that substandard or counterfeit drugs are a major public-health hazard.	波士顿—稍稍了解一下全球医疗行业你就能发现，假冒伪劣药品是公共健康的一个重大隐患。


These bogus products have infiltrated pharmaceutical supply chains from Azerbaijan to Zambia, wrecking the most promising programs to control, manage, and eradicate deadly diseases.	从阿塞拜疆到赞比亚，这些假冒伪劣产品入侵药品供应链，破坏控制、管理和根除致命疾病这一前途最光明的计划。


Yet little is being done to stop this criminal activity.	但针对这一犯罪活动几乎没有采取任何措施。


Growing up in Pakistan, I realized how vital it was for my mother, like any educated parent, to know which drugs and pharmacies could be trusted.	我在巴基斯坦长大，知道对于像我母亲这样的受过教育的家长来说，了解哪些药物和药品可以信任是至关重要的。


Little has changed since then.	和那时相比，现在几乎没有任何变化。


Local pharmacists from Lahore to Lusaka continue to sell a variety of brands of the same drug at different prices; and shopkeepers are called upon to give a candid opinion of their benefits and shortcomings.	从拉合尔到卢萨卡的各个地方药房仍在以不同价格出售各种牌子的同一款药品； 店主需要对药品的好处和短处做出权威说明。


Unfortunately, the problem runs a lot deeper than a few bad drugs sold at the corner pharmacy.	不幸的是，问题绝不仅限于不起眼的小药店出售一些伪劣药品那么简单。


Around $75 billion of substandard drugs are sold annually, causing an estimated 100,000 deaths worldwide, and making many more people seriously ill.	每年有750亿美元左右的伪劣药被卖出，并且造成（据估计）全世界100,000人死亡、导致更多的人陷入重病。


The trade in inferior drugs also undermines fragile public-health systems in poor countries.	伪劣药交���还破坏了穷国脆弱的公共卫生体系。


As well as killing consumers, the effects of bad drugs can be passed from parent to child, and even create new drug-resistant strains of diseases that threaten us all.	劣质药不但会杀害消费者，还会从父母传递给儿童，甚至产生新的耐药疾病威胁所有人的健康。


Yet the fight against substandard drugs has never been taken as seriously as other global health crises such as malaria, HIV, or maternal and infant mortality.	但针对伪劣药的斗争从未得到如疟疾、艾滋病和母婴死亡等其他全球健康危机一样的严肃对待。


This may be because there is no obvious solution.	这可能是因为没有显而易见的解决方案。


But, in seeking answers, we must first acknowledge that the issue is larger than just counterfeit medicines.	但是，为了寻找答案，我们必须首先承认这个问题不仅仅只是假冒伪劣药品的问题。


Many legitimate manufacturers worldwide, whether through complacency or incompetence, lack adequate quality controls.	放眼全球，许多合法制造商——不管是因为自满还是因为能力不足——缺少足够的质量控制。


In some cases, deficient storage and refrigeration systems turn safe medicines into dangerous substances.	在一些情形中，不符合要求的储藏和冷冻系统让安全的药品变成了危险的劣质药。


Unfortunately, those drug makers then take advantage of developing countries’ weak or poorly implemented legislation and corrupt officials to pass their products through local supply chains and into shops.	不幸的是，这些制药商还利用发展中国家不够严格的法规和执法以及贿赂官员获得进入地方药品供应链的通行证，出现在各大药店中。


Public ignorance or apathy means that those responsible are able to avoid prosecution.	公共的无知或冷漠意味着相关负责人得以逃脱起诉。


The technical expertise and equipment needed to detect inferior products is usually beyond the financial reach of many developing countries.	检测伪劣产品所需要的技术专家和设备通常超过了发展中国家的负担能力。


But there are low-cost alternatives.	但也有低成本替代方案。


One approach, for example, would be to include on packaging a “scratch code” that includes a phone number for consumers to call in order to check that the batch number matches an authentic product.	比如，一种方法是在嵌入“防伪码”，消费者可以根据码上的电话号码打电话验证产品批号和正品相同。


But, while this approach would certainly help to catch counterfeits, it would miss the substandard or degraded products made by legitimate firms, which are tested only by the consumer – and often at great cost in terms of health risks.	但是，尽管这一方法必然有助于抓获伪劣产品，但合法企业生产的劣质或减料产品会成为漏网之鱼，消费者只有在使用后才能知道产品质量低下，通常这意味着极高的健康风险。


It is therefore imperative to develop new detection technologies that will work in poorer countries, and that complement existing systems such as bar codes.	因此，开发可以用于穷国并与现有系统（比如条形码）形成互补的新检测技术十分重要。


Detection technology must be capable of analyzing all forms of a drug – whether powder, pill, capsule, or syrup – and of detecting several different grades of quality, not just the junk.	检测技术必须有能力分析所有形式的药品——不管是粉末、药丸、胶囊还是药浆——并能检测几种不同的质量级别，而不仅仅只分伪劣品和正品两类。


It must be simple, affordable, adaptable, and scalable; and it must work at all stages of distribution, whether at customs, in hospitals, or in remote villages.	这一技术必须简单、廉价、可修改、可扩展，并且必须使用于分销的各个阶段，包括海关、医院和偏远村庄。


But technology alone will not be enough.	但光有技术仍然不够。


Regulators, hospitals, and drug-safety authorities must take the lead, rather than placing the burden on often poor and uneducated citizens who are struggling to care for loved ones.	监管者、医院和药品安全部门必须起到领导作用，而不是把包袱甩给需要照看亲朋的穷苦和未受足够教育的公民。


The search for new, sustainable solutions, requires at least three initiatives.	研究新的可持续解决方案至少需要三方面的努力。


First, we must encourage innovation by offering research grants to support small initiatives or large-scale projects (like campaigns to fight HIV, malaria, and maternal mortality).	首先，我们必须发放研究经费支持小项目和大工程（如抵抗艾滋病、疟疾和母婴死亡的项目），以鼓励创新。


Ideally, an international group would coordinate and develop all of the ideas and products, and take them from the laboratory to the field.	理想的情况是由国际组织来协调和开发所有办法和产品，并把它们从实验室带到日常生活。


Second, we need to harness the creativity and commitment of young students, so that they understand the devastating impact of bad pharmaceuticals and become motivated to make a difference in people’s lives.	其次，我们需要引入年轻学生的创造力和志愿，让他们了解劣质药所造成的灾难性后果，激发他们改变人类生活的动机。


Third, we must make use of the media.	第三，我们必须利用媒体。


Just as the world cries foul when an illegal shipment of ivory is uncovered, we must launch campaigns in the press, on television, and online to bring to account any trader, state official, or company caught selling or promoting low-quality drugs.	查获非法走私象牙船都能引起全世界的不平，因此我们必须在报纸、电视和网络上掀起针对被揭发与销售劣质药品有涉的贸易商、国家官员和公司的舆论战。


In this way, we will remind those in the industry of a fundamental premise: their most precious commodity is not a blockbuster drug, but the public’s trust.	通过这种方法，我们可以提供制药行业一个基本承诺：他们最宝贵的商品不是划时代的药品，而是公众的信任。


If drug makers and pharmacists cannot protect their customers’ health, they cannot protect their business.	如果制药商和药店无法保护消费者的健康，那么它们也无法保护自己的生意。


November’s Diplomatic Harvest	11月的外交收获


MADRID – Jihadism is flourishing.	马德里—圣战主义大有燎原之势。


Tensions with Russia are flaring.	与俄罗斯的紧张态势日益升级。


Agreement between Iran and the “E3+3” (Britain, France, and Germany from the European Union, plus China, Russia, and the United States) remains elusive, with domestic politics in all of the negotiating partners introducing additional complexities into an already complicated process.	伊朗和“E3+3”（来自欧盟的英国、法国和德国加上中国、俄罗斯和美国）之间的协议依然可望不可及，所有谈判方的国内政治无不为已然十分复杂的过程再添复杂因素。


US President Barack Obama, having suffered a severe midterm election defeat, must now deal with a Congress under full Republican control.	美国总统奥巴马在中期选举中遭遇惨败，如今不得不面对共和党全面控制的国会。


In the eurozone, economic growth remains anemic, causing leaders to look inward.	在欧元区，经济增长依然萎靡不振，使其领导人自顾不暇。


One could easily conclude that the world is being sucked into a vortex of instability.	你可能会轻易地得出结论，世界正在被卷入动荡的涡流。


But the past month featured some hopeful moments, and pausing to study them is imperative to avoid succumbing to pessimism.	但上个月仍有不少令人满怀希望的时刻，停下来研究一下这些时刻对于避免陷入悲观主义十分重要。


Concluding a deal with Iran on its nuclear program remains an unfinished item of global business.	与伊朗就其核计划达成协议仍是未竟的全球事业。


The negotiations in Vienna failed to produce a deal that is critically important to both regional and global stability.	维也纳谈判没有为地区和全球稳定带来关键重要性协议。


But the atmosphere is positive: Iran fulfilled its obligations under last year’s interim agreement, and the E3+3 showed a willingness to end sanctions.	但氛围是积极的：伊朗履行了去年的过渡协议中的义务，E3+3也拿出了结束制裁的意愿。


The deadline to finalize negotiations has now been extended to June 2015.	目前，完成谈判的期限已延迟至2015年6月。


The West has a unique window of opportunity.	西方拥有独一无二的机会窗口。


Achieving a deal is essential to avoid a new – and potentially catastrophic – conflict in the Middle East.	实现协议对于避免新的——极有可能是灾难性的——中东冲突至关重要。


Negotiation and diplomacy are the only way to resolve the Iranian nuclear question in the long term and to normalize Iran’s critical role in regional security.	谈判和外交史长期解决伊朗核问题、实现伊朗地区安全关键作用正常化的唯一途径。


There were several other promising developments in November.	11月还有其他一些积极的发展趋势。


The new European Commission took office on November 1, launching its mandate with a plan to boost public and private investment by €315 billion ($392 billion) over the next three years.	新欧盟委员会于11月1日履新，发布了在未来三年让公共和私人投资增加3,150亿欧元的计划。


Similarly, in Brisbane, the G-20 approved a package of economic measures to boost global economic growth by 2.1 percentage points by 2018.	类似地，在布里斯班，G-20通过了一揽子经济措施，计划到2018年提振全球经济增长2. 1个百分点。


Moreover, the 20 leaders endorsed the Global Infrastructure Initiative, which will create a Global Infrastructure Hub to serve as a knowledge-sharing platform for governments, the private sector, development banks, and international organizations.	此外，20位领导人还支持全球基础设施计划（Global Infrastructure Initiative），准备建立一个全球基础设施枢纽（Global Infrastructure Hub）作为政府、私人部门、开发银行和国际组织共享知识的平台。


The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Beijing featured several important agreements as well.	北京亚太经合（APEC）峰会也形成了不少重要协议。


At the top of the list is the announcement of a US-China bilateral climate deal, which helps to smooth the path toward the crucial United Nations Climate Change Summit (COP21) in Paris next year.	最重要的包括美中双边气候协议，这有助于为关键的明年巴黎联合国气候变化峰会（COP21）铺平道路。


If India were to adopt a similar stance, hope would grow stronger still.	如果印度也采取类似立场，希望将会更大。


The UN’s Green Climate Fund, meanwhile, has been boosted with additional financing pledges – another critical stepping stone on the path to Paris.	与此同时，联合国绿色气候基金（Green Climate Fund）也获得了更多的融资承诺支持——这是通往巴黎之路上的又一关键垫脚石。


The Fund, financed by developed countries, is designed to help developing countries meet the costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change.	该基金由发达国家出资，目的是帮助发展中国家承担减轻和适应气候变化的成本。


The US has now pledged $3 billion, with Japan promising $1.5 billion, augmenting previous pledges by France and Germany – funding that is essential to ensure developing countries’ fruitful participation at COP21.	现在，美国承诺出资30亿美元，日本承诺出资15亿美元，扩大了此前法国和德国的承诺出资量——这笔资金对于确保发展中国家参与COP21至关重要。


The EU is also looking forward to Paris, following the European Council’s approval of the European Commission’s 2030 framework for climate and energy policies.	欧盟也在着眼于巴黎，欧洲理事会批准了欧盟委员会的2030年气候和能源政策框架。


Targets have been set for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, increasing the percentage of renewables in Europe’s energy mix, enhancing energy efficiency, and promoting electricity interconnection among member states.	该框架在温室气体排放、增加欧洲能源使用的可再生比例、增强能源效率、促进成员国之间电网互通等方面设立了目标。


China and the US reached another bilateral deal at the APEC summit, which will serve to unblock the World Trade Organization’s Information Technology Agreement and thus eliminate tariffs on information and communication technology.	中国和美国在APEC峰会上还达成了另一项双边协议，这项协议有助于为世贸组织的信息技术协议（Information Technology Agreement）扫清障碍，从而消除信息和通信技术的关税壁垒。


The Obama administration has estimated that, once applied, this agreement – which was frozen for a year as China sought to protect its domestic industry – will increase annual global GDP by $190 billion.	奥巴马政府估计，该协议的实施——因为中国要保护本国产业，该协议被冻结了一年——每年可以令全球GDP增加1,900亿美元。


At the same summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced steps toward a 17-member Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP).	在同一个峰会上，中国国家主席习近平还宣布了通向有17个成员的亚太自由贸易区（Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific，FTAAP）的路线图。


Such trade cooperation could provide a much-needed boon to diplomacy in a region that is under perpetual geopolitical strain.	这一贸易合作将为这个长期饱受地缘政治因素困扰的地区带来急需的外交裨益。


Meanwhile, the US-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) also moved forward in Beijing.	与此同时，美国所支持的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP）也在北京取得了进展。


Though the two projects are commonly viewed as rivals, owing to China’s absence from the TPP, the initiatives could be complementary.	尽管这两项工程被普遍看成是竞争关系——因为中国未加入TPP，但也可以形成互补的效果。


If strategic vision prevails and points of convergence are found, stability in Asia could be strengthened significantly.	如果战略眼光胜出，并且找到趋同点，亚洲的稳定可以大大强化。


The same is true of the Middle East, where an unscheduled meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in November brought some unexpected good news: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates committed to return their ambassadors to Qatar after an eight-month absence.	中东也是如此。 在中东，11月的海湾合作委员会（Gulf Cooperation Council）计划外会议带来了一些出人意料的好消息：沙特阿拉伯、巴林和阿拉伯联合酋长国承诺在召回八个月后重新派遣驻卡塔尔大使。


In Tunisia, meanwhile, the technocratic government that had taken charge for several months was replaced democratically.	与此同时，在突尼斯，执政数月之久的技术官僚政府有了民主选出的继任者。


In a parliamentary election at the end of October, the secular Nidaa Tounes (Call of Tunisia) party scored a victory over the Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance).	在10月底的议会选举中，世俗的Nidaa Tounes（突尼斯的召唤）党战胜了伊斯兰复兴党（Islamist Ennahda）。


One month later, Tunisians went to the polls to elect a president for the first time since President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was removed in 2011.	一个月后，突尼斯人通过投票箱选出了总统，这是2011年本·阿里被推翻以来的第一位民选总统。


Tunisia remains a beacon of hope in the region.	突尼斯仍是该地区的希望灯塔。


The emergence of a coalition government shows that the damaging winner-take-all paradigm of Middle East politics can be broken, and that power can be shared.	联合政府的产生表明中东政治危险的赢家通吃范式是可以打破的，权力也是可以分享的。


The Arab world should take note.	阿拉伯世界应该引起关注。


In Jerusalem, mounting tension over holy sites has highlighted the difficulty of moving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process forward.	在耶路撒冷，圣城不断升级的紧张局势凸显出推进以色列-巴勒斯坦和平进程的困难。


With an escalation in violent attacks in the city – a sacred place for both sides – the conflict has taken on a more religious face.	耶路撒冷（对双方来说都是圣域）暴力袭击不断升级，冲突的宗教味道日益浓重。


And, given this context, the Israeli government’s legislative proposal to define Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people – thereby giving preference to the state’s Jewish identity over its democratic character and endangering minority rights – is especially pernicious.	而在这样的情况下，以色列政府通过立法定义以色列为犹太民族国家——这意味着该国的犹太身份要比民主特征更加重要，少数权利因此将受到威胁——为害尤深。


Today, more than ever, I believe the peace process could take a new turn if the EU officially recognized Palestine – whose interim institutions it continues to support.	如今，我比以往任何时候都更加相信，欧盟正式承认巴勒斯坦可以为和平进程带来新转折。 欧盟一直支持巴勒斯坦过渡机构。


The effectiveness of such concerted action was on welcome display in November.	这一协调行动在11月取得了令人欢欣鼓舞的效果。


We should strive to maintain the momentum.	我们应该努力保持这一势头。


Multilateral Engagement for Energy Security	能源安全的多边保证


Our global need for energy reliability binds us together as surely as the global network that delivers it; a failure in one part of our network will inevitably affect everyone.	对可靠能源的全球性需求就像输送能源的全球性网络一样将我们紧密地联系在一起，如果某个环节出现了错误，将不可避免地影响到网络中的每一个人。


Local interests and persistent conflicts that sit astride our networks, including the as yet unresolved issue of Russian gas supply to Ukraine and Europe, have again raised the specter of energy being used as a weapon to gain political leverage.	网络中无处不在的地方利益和无时不在的冲突矛盾，包括迄今为止还没有解决的俄国对乌克兰和欧洲的天然气供应，再一次引发了人们对以能源为武器来获取政治影响的莫名恐惧。


Energy security is at the top of the agenda of the G-8 meeting hosted by President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg.	在由普京总统（Vladimir Putin）主办的圣彼得堡八国峰会上，能源安全问题被列入中心议题。


The G-8 has correctly identified the key economic issue, energy interdependence, and now is the time for focused multilateral engagement on this issue.	八国峰会明确了能源互赖这一关键经济问题的地位，现在已经到了达成多边协议的时候了。


For some countries that are blessed with vast supplies of oil and gas, the use of energy exports to reward friends and punish foes seems a tempting option.	对石油、天然气储量很大的国家来讲，利用能源出口来奖励朋友、惩戒敌人似乎很有诱惑力。


Today, however, it is more likely to prove disruptive to friend and foe alike, as well as damaging to those countries that indulge this temptation.	然而今天，这种做法无疑会给朋友和敌人同样地造成损害，甚至威胁到沉湎于这种诱惑者的自身利益。


Energy embargoes have generally proven counterproductive.	从总体来看，能源禁运的效果有害无益。


The price rises that followed OPEC’s oil embargoes of the 1970’s were unsustainable and led to conservation efforts and expansion of non-OPEC production.	欧佩克20世纪70年代实行石油禁运造成的价格飞涨无法长期持续下去，直接导致了石油消费的减少和非欧佩克石油产量的增加。


As a result, OPEC’s share of world oil exports dropped sharply in the twelve years following the embargo of 1973-1974.	其结果导致欧佩克占世界石油出口的份额在1973－1974年禁运之后的12年内发生了大幅度下降。


Experience has taught us that transparency and price stability is in everyone's interest.	过去的经验告诉我们：价格的透明和稳定符合相关各方的利益。


Pursuit of these principals while encouraging the development of global markets is essential to greater overall growth prospects for the world economy.	在促进全球市场发展的同时严格遵循上述原则对世界经济获得更大的总体增长无疑起着至关重要的作用。


So when Russia sought earlier this year to quadruple the price of its gas exports to Ukraine, it argued that it was simply demanding market rates.	因此当年初俄国试图把出口乌克兰的天然气价格提升到原来四倍的时候，俄国辩解说它所要求的不过是市场价格。


The message sounded fair and it did, for a short time, appeal to some policymakers and investors not fully apprised of the situation.	这种说法乍听上去不失公正，而且在一段很短的时间内，它的确获得了不完全了解情况的执政者和投资者的认同。


To be clear, measured price changes implemented over time was never in dispute; indeed, some internal price adjustments for Ukraine were in order.	明确地讲，较长时间内适度的价格增长从来不会引起争议，实际情况是，乌克兰国内的价格调整已经蓄势待发。


Unfortunately for Russia’s neighbors, it is not the market that determines what price is paid for Russia’s gas or transport; it is Gazprom and its chairman, Dmitry Medvedev, who is also the Russian government’s First Deputy Prime Minister.	不幸的是对俄罗斯的邻国来讲，决定俄国天然气或输送价格的从来就不是市场，而是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)及其主席，兼任第一副总理的梅德韦捷夫(Dmitry Medvedev)。


The price charged by Gazprom for each country bordering Russia is different and is largely determined by political relationships with the Kremlin.	俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司对各个邻国的天然气定价迥然不同，而且这种定价在很大程度上取决于与克里姆林的政治关系。


Economically speaking, gas supply and transport prices are more correlated to political relationships than to fundamental supply-demand or gas transport basis calculations.	从经济角度讲，天然气的供应和输送价格与根本的供求关系或天然气运送成本关系不大，反而是国与国之间的政治关系起到更大的作用。


Ukraine was threatened with an immediate quadrupling of its prices – or interruption of its gas supply - as a result of it new-found independence from Russia during the Orange Revolution.	橙色革命期间，乌克兰受到如下威胁，要么立即将天然气价格提高原来的四倍，要么就立刻面临着天然气供应中断的危险。 乌克兰不久前脱离俄联邦获得独立直接导致了这样的后果。


Georgia, also feeling the wrath of Moscow following the Rose Revolution, faced potentially harmful price increases as well.	同样在玫瑰革命（Rose Revolution）中感受到莫斯科怒火的格鲁吉亚也面临着可能的损害性价格增长。


Belarus, however, still in strong alignment with the Kremlin, continues to enjoy highly subsidized gas.	而仍然与克里姆林结成稳固联盟的白俄罗斯则继续心安理得地享用着含有高额价格补贴的天然气。


Of course, Ukraine was not the only country put at risk by this brinksmanship; suppliers such as Turkmenistan, geographically locked into transit requirements through Russia, also suffer.	勿庸置疑，乌克兰并不是受到这种边缘化政策威胁的唯一的国家，像土库曼斯坦这样在地理上必须通过俄罗斯运输中转的天然气供应国也深受其害。


And for the consuming nations of Western and Central Europe, the price effects and supply disruption anxieties were of significant consequence.	而对于西方和中欧的天然气消费国来讲，价格作用和对供应遭到破坏的忧虑会造成非常严重的后果。


Immediate multilateral intervention by the European Union and the United States probably are what probably caused Gazprom to turn the gas back on.	欧盟和美国的即时多边干预也许是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司被迫恢复天然气供应的主要原因。


Natural gas may be the commodity most vulnerable to event-driven supply disruptions.	天然气也许是最容易由于政治事件而遭受供应破坏的商品。


The fixed interconnected pipelines lock producers and consumers in a near-exclusive embrace.	四通八达的固定管道使生产者和消费者之间建立起几乎独一无二的排他性关系。


Diversification in natural gas transportations is a long-term cross-border asset development proposition requiring enormous investment and political commitment on a multilateral level.	天然气运输的多样化是跨越国境的长期资产发展计划，需要巨大的多边投资以及持续的政治支持。


Many solutions are already under consideration: new gas storage capacity, increased efficiency, expansion of domestic production of both oil and gas, and alternative energy supplies such as coal-bed methane.	许多方案都在考虑之中：新增天然气储备能力、提高效率、扩大石油和天然气的国内生产，以及利用像煤田沼气这样的替代性能源。


Additionally, a market in tradable liquefied natural gas (LNG) is rapidly emerging.	不仅如此，可以交易的液化天然气（LNG）市场正在迅速崛起。


It is more feasible to diversify the supply chain, albeit incrementally, by importing gas from distant producers rather than from monopolistic suppliers next door.	尽管变化非常缓慢，但通过向遥远的生产国而不是邻近的垄断供应国进口天然气而实现供应链多样化的努力毕竟成为了可能。


All of these efforts together will soften shocks somewhat and create more energy self-sufficiency.	所有这些努力会共同减缓冲击，扩大能源的自给。


Yet more is required.	但只有这些努力是远远不够的。


First, G-8 leaders should consider implementing standards in energy transactions requiring open and transparent contracts in line with best practices in business.	首先，八国领导人应当考虑制定能源交易的标准，签订符合崇高商业精神的开放和透明的合同。


It is important to dilute the global impact of local politicians pursuing non‑energy agendas, or simply their own limited interests.	削弱追求能源以外、或者自身狭隘目的的地方政治所产生的全球影响是非常重要的。


We see these problems today in state-owned firms in Latin America, political unrest in Africa, tensions in the Middle East or through opaque business intermediaries, as in the questionable gas deal between Ukraine and Russia, known now as RUE (RosUkrEnergo).	这些问题不仅在今天拉丁美洲的国有公司和非洲的政治动荡中可以看到，在中东的紧张局势或商业中介的阴暗交易中也时有反映，乌克兰和俄国现在名为俄乌能源公司(RosUkrEnergo)的机构所开展的令人质疑的天然气交易就是一例。


In the end, energy security for all of us in Europe requires recognizing that the linked nature of our supply and transmission systems makes us interdependent.	归根结底，实现所有欧洲国家的能源安全需要认可这样一个基本事实：那就是供应和输送系统的四通八达导致了各国之间的相互依赖。


This is where an “Energy Alliance” of consumers and suppliers could be useful, starting with the nations of Europe helping to guarantee the energy supplies of others in a major disruption.	这就是消费国和生产国之间“能源联盟”的益处所在，这样的联盟始于欧洲国家在严重破坏发生时确保别国能源供应的努力。


The Energy Charter, which emphasizes market access and transparency, is a laudable effort but it is not sufficient for those moments of crisis; our markets are not yet well enough equipped to deal with event-driven disruptions.	强调市场准入和透明度的《能源宪章》固然值得喝彩，但在危机到来时却还远远不够，我们的市场还没有成熟到可以自由地应对由特定事件所引发的破坏。


The Energy Charter might be a vehicle for this collective energy security, if deepened and broadened.	如果得以深化和扩大，那么《能源宪章》有可能成为确保集体能源安全的重要工具。


It is our duty as leaders to chart a course for a secure energy future.	描绘未来能源安全的蓝图是我们领导人的职责。


Tolerance of questionable dealing today for the sake of political expediency will cost more in the future for us all.	今天对于以政治利己主义为目的的问题交易的容忍只会让我们在未来付出更大的代价。


When the inevitable conflict occurs, public confidence, political credibility and market reliability are needlessly sacrificed – this has clearly occurred for Russia and for Ukraine.	当冲突无可避免地出现时，公众信心、政治信任和市场依赖都毫无意义地变成了的牺牲品¾俄国和乌克兰显然就属于这样的情况。


Threats to energy security must be challenged and resolved on a multilateral basis, with all stakeholders present.	对能源安全的威胁必须受到挑战，并要当着利害各方在多边的基础上加以解决。


The interdependent nature of our energy infrastructure requires a multilateral approach.	能源基础设施相互联系的特性需要采取多边的处理方式，只有这样的方式才是我们共同的依靠。


The Right Choices for 2015	2015年的正确选择


WASHINGTON, DC – As 2015 begins, policymakers around the world are faced with three fundamental choices: to strive for economic growth or accept stagnation; to work to improve stability or risk succumbing to fragility; and to cooperate or go it alone.	华盛顿—随着2014年临近尾声，全世界决策者面临着三大基本选择：为经济增长而奋斗或者接受停滞； 努力改善稳定或者陷入分裂；


The stakes could not be higher; 2015 promises to be a make-or-break year for the global community.	赌注是巨大的； 2015年极有可能是全球社会非立即破（make-or-break）的一年。


For starters, growth and jobs are needed to support prosperity and social cohesion in the wake of the Great Recession that began in 2008.	首先，面对2008年开始的大衰退，世界需要增长和就业支持繁荣和社会团结。


Six years after the eruption of the financial crisis, the recovery remains weak and uneven.	金融危机爆发已逾六年，复苏仍然疲软又不平均。


Global growth is projected at just 3.3% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015.	预计2014年全球增长只有3. 3%，2015年只有3.


Some important economies are still fighting deflation.	8%。 一些重要经济体仍在与通缩抗争。


More than 200 million people are unemployed.	2亿多人陷入失业。


The global economy risks getting stuck in a “new mediocre” – a prolonged period of slow growth and feeble job creation.	全球经济有可能陷入“新平庸”（new mediocre）——长时间的慢增长和就业创造萎靡。


To break free from stagnation, we need renewed policy momentum.	要想摆脱停滞，我们需要政策动力。


If the measures agreed by the leaders assembled at the G-20 in November are implemented, they will lift world GDP by more than 2% by 2018 – the equivalent of adding $2 trillion in global income.	如果实施11月G-20会议领导人达成一致的措施，世界GDP将在2018年提高2%——相当于增加2万亿美元全球收入。


Furthermore, by 2025, if the laudable – yet not overly ambitious – goal of closing the gender gap by 25% is achieved, 100 million women could have jobs that they didn’t have before.	此外，到2025年，如果将性别差距缩小25%这一深得人心又合情合理的目标能够实现，1亿妇女将能获得她们从未得到过的工作。


Global leaders have asked the International Monetary Fund to monitor the implementation of these growth strategies.	全球领导人已要求国际货币基金组织（IMF）监督这些增长战略。


We will do so, country by country, reform by reform.	我们会承担这一责任，一个国家一个国家、一项改革一项改革地进行监督。


Besides structural reforms, building new momentum will require pulling all possible levers that can support global demand.	除了结构性改革，制造新动力还需要动用一切可以支持全球需求的工具。


Accommodative monetary policy will remain essential for as long as growth remains anemic – though we must pay careful attention to potential spillovers.	只要增长保持低迷，适应性货币政策就依然必不可少——但我们必须小心潜在的溢出效应。


Fiscal policy should be focused on promoting growth and creating jobs, while maintaining medium-term credibility.	财政政策应该关注促进增长和创造就业，同时维持中期信誉。


And labor-market policies should continue to emphasize training, affordable childcare, and workplace flexibility.	劳动力市场政策应该继续强调培训、平价儿童看护和灵活办公。


As we ponder the second choice, between stability and fragility, we must consider how we can make our increasingly interconnected world a safer place.	在考虑第二项选择——稳定和分裂时，我们必须考虑如何让我们日益互联的世界变得更加安全。


Financial integration has risen tenfold since World War II.	自二战以来，金融一体化程度增加了十倍。


National economies are so interconnected that shifts in market sentiment tend to cascade globally.	国家经济体之间彼此密切相联，市场情绪的变化总是会带来全球影响。


It is therefore critical that we complete the agenda on financial-sector reform.	因此，完成金融部门改革日程十分关键。


To be sure, there has been progress, especially on banking regulation and on addressing too-big-to-fail financial institutions.	诚然，我们取得了一些进展，特别是在银行监管和治理太大而不能倒的金融机构方面。


But countries must now implement the reforms and improve the quality of supervision.	但如今各国必须实施改革，改善质量和监督。


We also need better rules for nonbanks, stricter monitoring of shadow banks, and improved safeguards and more transparency in the derivatives markets.	我们还需要更好的非银行规则、更严格的影子银行监督、改善衍生品市场安全和增加其透明度。


Progress on closing data gaps in the financial sector is urgently needed as well, so that regulators can properly assess risks to financial stability.	还需要尽快消除金融部门的数据缺口，以便监管者恰当地评估金融稳定风险。


Most important, the culture of the financial sector needs to change.	最重要的是，必须改变金融部门的文化。


The principal purpose of finance is to provide services to the other parts of the economy, which it cannot do unless it enjoys the confidence of those who depend on those services – that is, all of us.	金融的主要目的是为经济的其他部分提供服务，而这只要在金融部门获得依赖于其服务的人——也就是我们所有人的信心的情况下才能实现。


Restoring trust should therefore start with an all-out effort to promote and enforce ethical behavior throughout the industry.	因此，重塑信任应该从竭尽全力促进和加强全行业道德行为开始。


The third choice, whether to cooperate or go it alone, is the most critical.	第三个选择——合作还是单干——最为关键。


No economy is an island; indeed, the global economy is more integrated than ever before.	没有哪个经济体是孤岛一座； 事实上，全球经济比以往任何时候都要更加一体化。


Consider this: Fifty years ago, emerging markets and developing economies accounted for about a quarter of world GDP.	想一想，五十年前，新兴市场和发展中经济体只占世界GDP的大约四分之一。


Today, they generate half of global income, a share that will continue to rise.	如今，它们贡献了一半的全球收入，并且这一比重仍在上升。


But sovereign states are no longer the only actors on the scene.	但主权国家已不再是舞台上唯一的选手。


A global network of new stakeholders has emerged, including NGOs and citizen activists – often empowered by social media.	新相关利益方全球网络已经形成，成员包括非政府组织和公民活动家——他们的力量常常来自社交媒体。


This new reality demands a new response.	这一新现实需要新应对。


We will need to update, adapt, and deepen our methods of working together.	我们必须更新、调整和深化我们合作工作的方法。


This can be done by building on effective institutions of cooperation that already exist.	要实现这一点，可以依靠已经存在的有效合作机构。


Institutions like the IMF should be made even more representative in light of the dynamic shifts taking place in the global economy.	IMF这样的机构应该变得更具代表性，以体现全球经济的动态变化。


The new networks of influence should be embraced and given space in the twenty-first century architecture of global governance.	在二十一世纪全球治理结构中应该纳入新影响力网络并给它空间。


This is what I have called the “new multilateralism.”	我称之为“新多边主义”。


I believe it is the only way to address the challenges that the global community faces.	我认为这是解决目前全球社会所面临问题的唯一办法。


The year 2014 was a tough one.	2014年是艰难的一年。


The recovery was slow, a series of dangerous geopolitical risks emerged, and the world was confronted with a devastating Ebola outbreak.	复苏缓慢，一系列危险的地缘政治风险涌现，世界还面临着可怕的埃博拉大爆发。


This year may be another tough one, but it could also be a good one – a truly multilateral year.	明年也将是艰难的一年，但可以成为一个好年头——一个真正的多边之年。


New momentum on global trade could help unlock investment worldwide, and I am hopeful about the new Sustainable Development Goals (which will succeed the Millennium Development Goals in 2015), and about the prospects for a comprehensive climate-change agreement at the end of this year.	全球贸易新动力有助于解放世界��易，我对新的可持续发展目标（将在2015年接替千年发展目标）抱有很大希望，也对明年年底的全面气候变化协议的前景抱有很大希望。


Against this backdrop, the adoption of the IMF reforms by the United States Congress would send a long-overdue signal to rapidly growing emerging economies that the world counts on their voices, and their resources, to find global solutions to global problems.	在这样的背景下，美国国会接受IMF改革将向快速增长的新兴经济体释放出期待已久的信号——世界在寻找全球问题的全球解决方案时重视它们的声音和它们的资源。


Growth, trade, development, and climate change: 2015 will be a rendezvous of important multilateral initiatives.	增长、贸易、发展和气候变化：2015年将是各种重要的多边计划汇合的一年。


We cannot afford to see them fail.	我们决不能让它们失败。


Let us make the right choices.	让我们做出正确的选择。


Why Multilateralism Still Matters	多边主义为什么依然存在


MADRID – Across the West, faith in international governance and economic globalization is declining.	马德里——所有西方国家对国际治理和经济全球化的信心正在降低。


As Donald Trump’s victory in the United States’ presidential election showed, voters, driven by a sense of injustice and inequality, are increasingly rejecting openness, as well as the political establishment that has advanced it.	就像唐纳德·特朗普在美国总统大选中获胜所显示的那样，由对不公平和不平等的厌恶感驱动的选民越来越反对开放和推动开放的相关政体。


But, while the grievances fueling these choices are real – many have been left behind by globalization – the treatment is likely to cause more harm than the disease.	但尽管助推上述选择的不满情绪确实存在——很多人被全球化进程远远抛在了后面——但这种应对方法很可能比问题本身造成更大的危害。


Trump won by promising to pursue unilateral and inward-looking solutions, much like those advocated by proponents of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.	特朗普获胜是因为承诺实行单方面和内向的解决方案，这与英国退欧倡导者所提出的方案非常相似。


Voters were galvanized by the prospect of rejecting new free-trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and renegotiating old ones like the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA).	选民们因为否决像“跨太平洋伙伴关系”（TPP）这样的新自由贸易协议及重新谈判像北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）这样的已有协议而兴奋不已。


They rally against multilateral bodies like the World Trade Organization (WTO) – the main forum for negotiating and implementing global trade norms and one of the only international organizations with a quasi-judicial dispute-settlement entity.	他们联合起来反对像世界贸易组织（WTO）这样的多边机构，世贸组织是拥有准司法争端解决机制的唯一国际机构，也是谈判和执行全球贸易规则的主要论坛。


All of this ignores a crucial fact: in today’s world, turning inward is not a viable option, especially for Western liberal democracies.	所有这些都忽略了一个关键的事实：当今世界，尤其对西方自由民主国家来说，向内收缩的选择根本不可行。


We are simply too interconnected; the problems, challenges, and opportunities we face have no regard for national borders.	我们的联系已经太过紧密； 我们所面临的问题、挑战和机遇都不会被国家边境所阻隔。


Efforts to move backward to the time of independent nation-states will therefore carry massive costs.	因此，退回到独立民族国家的时代将要付出巨大的代价。


Indeed, the decline of the WTO, together with the demise of deals like the TPP and NAFTA, would fuel the emergence of separate trade blocs, inaugurating a new era of great power competition.	事实上，世贸组织的衰落、加之像跨太平洋伙伴关系协议和北美自由贸易协议这样协议的终止会推动独立贸易集团的兴起，并由此拉开大国竞争时代的序幕。


Perhaps most important, a retreat from global trade would bring about a generalized loss of welfare.	或许最重要的是，退出全球贸易会带来福利普遍丧失的恶果。


The good news is that not everyone is suffering from such a lack of vision.	乐观的消息是并非所有人都这样缺乏远见。


The European Union and Canada have signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), providing a glimmer of hope that progress can still be made on prosperity-enhancing trade and investment pacts.	欧盟和加拿大已经签署的全面经济和贸易协定（CETA）为在促进繁荣的贸易和投资协定方面取得进展提供了一线生机。


It was not an easy negotiation, and the CETA has faced resistance from groups that worry that more trade will hurt their livelihoods.	这绝非一次轻而易举的谈判，全面经济和贸易协定面临着来自担心增强贸易将有损其生计的团体的抵制。


But the protracted talks, which included a complex final approval process, finally succeeded in October.	但旷日持久的谈判，包括复杂的最后批准程序，终于在10月取得了胜利。


The CETA is a positive development not only because it links two developed economies that project democratic values and boast strong welfare systems, but also because it introduces high environmental, labor, and phytosanitary standards for trade.	全面经济和贸易协定的积极影响不仅因为它在投射民主价值观和拥有强大福利制度的两大发达经济体之间建立了联系，而且因为它引入了高环境、劳动和植物检疫标准的贸易。


It will also provide a substantial economic boost, possibly adding around €12 billion ($12.7 billion) to the EU’s GDP, while underpinning a nearly 25% increase in the trade of goods and services for both sides.	它还将带来巨大的经济增长，或许会让欧盟GDP增加120亿欧元（合127亿美元），同时支持双方的商品和服务贸易增长近25%。


This is particularly important at a time when trade growth is outpaced by GDP growth, a dramatic reversal from recent trends.	在贸易增速被GDP增速超越、近期趋势确实发生显著逆转的情况下，这样的增长有着尤为重要的意义。


Yet another advantage of the CETA is improved dispute settlement, brought about by the establishment of a permanent court whose members will be chosen by Canada and the EU together, in order to avoid conflicts of interest.	但全面经济和贸易协定的另一项优势是改进争端解决机制，具体方法是通过建立由加拿大和欧盟各自挑选成员组成的永久性法庭，最大限度地避免利益冲突。


To ensure transparency, arbitral awards will be made public, and parties will have the right to appeal.	为确保判决机制透明，仲裁裁决结果将全部公开，同时各方有权提出上诉。


Recent election outcomes threaten not only trade, but also the environment and the world’s climate.	最近这次选举结果不仅威胁到贸易，而且威胁到环境和世界气候。


The US, which is responsible for 16% of global greenhouse-gas emissions, is critical to any effort to fight climate change – not least because of the example it sets for other high-emitting countries.	占据全球温室气体排放量16%的美国对应对气候变化的一切工作都至关重要——这不仅因为它对其他高排放国家可以起到示范效果。


Yet Trump vowed repeatedly during his campaign to “cancel” the historic global climate agreement reached in Paris last December.	但特朗普在竞选过程中曾反复鼓吹要“取消”去年12月在巴黎达成的历史性全球气候协议。


If Trump delivers on this promise, the consequences could be dire.	如果特朗普兑现这个诺言，很有可能会产生可怕的后果。


The promising news here is that, at this year’s climate conference in Marrakesh, Morocco, the rest of the signatories to the Paris agreement clearly expressed their determination to implement the commitments they submitted.	今年摩洛哥马拉喀什气候会议上，巴黎协定的其他签字国明确表示决心履行巴黎协定所做出的承诺为气候变化事业带来了希望。


There is even more promising news: last month, governments, industry, and civil-society representatives reached a deal to limit CO2 emissions by the civil aviation industry – the first-ever agreement to reduce CO2 emissions in a global sector.	更有希望的消息是：上个月，政府、行业和民间团体代表达成了一项协议，限制民用航空业的二���化碳排放量——这是有史以来首次签署协议旨在降低某全球行业的二氧化碳排放。


Given that, in a high-demand scenario, the industry would be emitting by 2050 almost as much CO2 as Russia and India combined emit today, this is a hugely important development.	鉴于如果未来需求居高不下，民用航空业截止2050年的排放量将接近今天俄罗斯和印度两国的排放之和，因此这一进展无疑极为重要。


Again, the EU stands out for its forward-thinking stance, playing a central role – along with its member states – in brokering the deal, which requires airlines to offset the growth of their CO2 emissions from 2020 by purchasing “emission units” generated by emissions-reducing projects in other sectors, like renewables.	此次，欧盟再次采取了前瞻性的立场，与其成员国一道在协议签订中发挥了核心作用——协议要求航空公司通过购买“排放单位”来抵消从2020年开始的二氧化碳排放增长，而这些“排放单位”来自可再生能源等其他行业的减排项目。


In the mid-2000s, the EU – which already had its own carbon-trading scheme (the EU ETS) in place – recognized that despite the commitments included in the Kyoto Protocol, the world had not succeeded in reducing the industry’s emissions.	21世纪中期，已经建立起内部碳交易制度（欧盟排放交易体系）的欧盟认识到尽管京都议定书已经载入了相关承诺，但世界并没有成功减少工业排放。


It commenced work on a solution in 2008.	于是它于2008年开始寻找解决办法。


By 2012, it had convinced the International Civil Aviation Organization to commit to reaching a global agreement by the end of 2016.	截止2012年，它成功说服了国际民用航空机构承诺于2016年年底前达成一项全球协议。


The fulfillment of that commitment amounts to a major step forward for climate cooperation.	这一承诺的兑现标志着向气候合作迈出了重要的一步。


The world is past the point of closed borders and unilateral solutions.	世界已经跨过了封闭边境和单方面行动的时代。


We have already globalized; now we need global rules to underpin economic and financial stability, as well as peace and security.	我们已经实现了全球化； 现在我们需要全球规则来支撑经济和金融的稳定，以及保障和平与安全。


The EU, despite its many challenges, has not only proved its value as a cornerstone of the international order; it has also vindicated the broader value of global vision and leadership, carried out through diplomacy and smart multilateralism.	尽管面临诸多挑战，但欧盟不仅证明了其作为国际秩序基石的价值； 它还证明了通过落实外交和明智多边主义的全球愿景和领导力量的普遍价值。


Now more than ever, it is a lesson that we cannot afford to ignore.	我们现在比以往任何时刻都更不能忽视这样的教训。


Learning to Love a Multipolar World	学会爱上多极世界


NEW YORK – American foreign policy is at a crossroads.	纽约—美国外交政策正站在十字路口。


The United States has been an expanding power since its start in 1789.	自1789年建国以来，美国便一直是一个扩张的力量。


It battled its way across North America in the nineteenth century and gained global dominance in the second half of the twentieth.	它通过战争在十九世纪横扫北美，二十世纪下半叶开始主宰全球。


But now, facing China’s rise, India’s dynamism, Africa’s soaring populations and economic stirrings, Russia’s refusal to bend to its will, its own inability to control events in the Middle East, and Latin America’s determination to be free of its de facto hegemony, US power has reached its limits.	但如今，面临中国的崛起、印度的活力、非洲激增的人口和经济、俄罗斯的拒绝服从、自身的无力控制中东局面以及拉丁美洲的摆脱其事实霸权的决心，美国的实力已经达到了极致。


One path for the US is global cooperation.	摆在美国面前的一条路是全球合作。


The other is a burst of militarism in response to frustrated ambitions.	另一条路是野心受阻导致军国主义爆发。


The future of the US, and of the world, hangs on this choice.	美国以及全世界的未来取决于这一选择。


Global cooperation is doubly vital.	全球合作具有双重重要性。


Only cooperation can deliver peace and the escape from a useless, dangerous, and ultimately bankrupting new arms race, this time including cyber-weapons, space weapons, and next-generation nuclear weapons.	只有合作能带来和平，摆脱无用、危险、终将破产的新军备竞赛——这次包括网络武器、空间武器和下一代核武器。


And only cooperation can enable humanity to face up to urgent planetary challenges, including the destruction of biodiversity, the poisoning of the oceans, and the threat posed by global warming to the world’s food supply, vast drylands, and heavily populated coastal regions.	只有合作能让人类战胜紧迫的地球挑战，包括生物多样性的破坏、海洋的毒化以及全球变暖对世界粮食供给、大量干旱土地和人口稠密的沿海地区所造成的威胁。


Yet global cooperation means the willingness to reach agreements with other countries, not simply to make unilateral demands of them.	但全球合作意味着愿意与其他国家达成协议，而不仅仅是单方面要求它们。


And the US is in the habit of making demands, not making compromises.	美国习惯于提要求，而不是做妥协。


When a state feels destined to rule – as with ancient Rome, the Chinese “Middle Kingdom” centuries ago, the British Empire from 1750 to 1950, and the US since World War II – compromise is hardly a part of its political vocabulary.	当一个国家觉得它是命中注定的统治者时——如同古罗马、几百年前的“中央王国”中国、1750—1950年间的大英帝国和二战以后的美国那样——妥协就很难在其政治语库中占据一席之地。


As former US President George W. Bush succinctly put it, “You’re either with us or against us.”	美国前总统小布什简明扼要地指出，“要么与我们为友，要么与我们为敌。 ”


Not surprisingly, then, the US is finding it hard to accept the clear global limits that it is confronting.	因此，不足为奇，美国难以接受它所面临的明确的全球。


In the wake of the Cold War, Russia was supposed to fall in line; but President Vladimir Putin did not oblige.	冷战后，俄罗斯被认为走向衰落； 但其总统普京不愿臣服。


Likewise, rather than bringing stability on US terms, America’s covert and overt wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, South Sudan, and elsewhere created a firestorm stretching across the greater Middle East.	类似地，美国在阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚、南苏丹和其他地区的隐秘和公开的战争并没有按照美国的意愿形成稳定，而是制造了一场席卷整个大中东的风暴。


China was supposed to show gratitude and deference to the US for the right to catch up from 150 years of abuse by Western imperial powers and Japan.	中国理应对美国表现出感激和遵从，因为美国让它获得了从150年来的西方帝国主义列强和日本的蹂躏下崛起赶超的权利。


Instead, China has the audacity to think that it is an Asian power with responsibilities of its own.	相反，中国大胆到认为它是一个肩负自身责任的亚洲力量。


There is a fundamental reason, of course, for these limits.	当然，这些极限背后有一个根本原因。


At WWII’s end, the US was the only major power not destroyed by the war.	二战结束时，美国是唯一一个未受战争摧残的主要力量。


It led the world in science, technology, and infrastructure.	它引领着全球科学、技术和基础设施。


It constituted perhaps 30% of the world economy and formed the cutting edge of every high-tech sector.	它贡献��大约30%的全球经济，在每个高科技领域都能做到独步天下。


It organized the postwar international order: the United Nations, the Bretton Woods institutions, the Marshall Plan, the reconstruction of Japan, and more.	它战后国际秩序：联合国、布雷顿森林体系、马歇尔计划、日本重建，等等。


Under that order, the rest of the world has closed much of the vast technological, educational, and infrastructural gap with the US.	在这一秩序下，世界其他国家填补了它们与美国之间巨大的技术、教育和基础设施差距的大部分。


As economists say, global growth has been “convergent,” meaning that poorer countries have been catching up.	经济学家常说，全球增长是“趋同”的，即穷国一直在赶超。


The share of the world economy represented by the US has declined by roughly half (to around 16% currently).	美国占世界经济的比重大约下降了一半（目前为16%左右）。


China now has a larger economy in absolute terms than the US, though still only around one-fourth the size in per capita terms.	中国经济的绝对规模已经超过美国，尽管人均规模仍然只有美国的四分之一左右。


None of this catching up was a perfidious trick against the US or at its expense.	这一赶超完全不是对美国背信弃义，也没有牺牲美国的利益。


It was a matter of basic economics: given peace, trade, and a global flow of ideas, poorer countries can get ahead.	这只是基本的经济学原理：有了和平、贸易和全球思想流动，穷国也可以领先。


This tendency is to be welcomed, not shunned.	这一趋势值得欢迎，而不应该“掐断”。


But if the global leader’s mindset is one of domination, the results of catch-up growth will look threatening, which is how many US “security strategists” view them.	但如果全球领导者的思维是主宰思维，那么赶超增长的结果看上去就像是威胁，而这正是许多美国“安全战略家”的看法。


Suddenly, open trade, long championed by the US, looks like a dire threat to its continued dominance.	一夜之间，美国一直领导的开放贸易成为其保持主宰地位的重大威胁。


Fear-mongers are calling for the US to close itself off to Chinese goods and Chinese companies, claiming that global trade itself undermines American supremacy.	恐慌贩子号召美国将自己与中国商品和中国公司隔绝，说全球贸易本身破坏了美国至高无上的地位。