But this week, announcing a new proposal to prevent conflicts of interest in financial advising, Obama seemed to turn an important corner.	但本周奥巴马似乎做了一个重要的转弯，宣布了一项新方案防止金融广告中的利益冲突。


From the outset of his first presidential term, Obama maintained the approach taken by George W. Bush's administration.	从其第一个任期伊始，奥巴马维持了小布什政府所采取的方针。


Large financial firms benefited from the provision of massive government support in early 2009, and their executives and shareholders received generous terms.	2009年初，大金融企业从政府所提供的大规模支持中获益，它们的高管和股东得到了慷慨的条件。


Citigroup, in particular, benefited from this approach, which allowed it to carry on with substantially the same business model and management team.	特别是花旗集团，得益于这一方针，它得以维持基本不变的业务模式和管理团队。


And the Dodd-Frank financial-reform legislation of 2010 could have done much more to curtail large banks' power and limit the damage they can cause.	而2010年多德-弗兰克（Dodd-Frank）金融改革立法本可以大大限制大银行的权力和它们所造成的伤害。


Most recently, in December 2014, the administration abandoned an important part of the Dodd-Frank reforms – a move that directly benefited Citigroup by allowing its management team to take on more risk (of the kind that almost broke the financial system in 2007-08).	更晚近一些，2014年12月，奥巴马政府放弃了多德-弗兰克改革中非常重要的一部分——这一决定直接有利于花旗集团，允许其管理团队承担更多风险（与2007—08危机中几乎让金融系统崩溃的风险相同的风险）。


Among financial-industry lobbyists and House Republicans, the knives are out to roll back more of the constraints imposed on Citigroup and other big banks.	众议院共和党金融业说客的枪口纷纷对准花旗集团所遭遇的约束，其他大银行都没有这样的待遇。


But now, in an abrupt and commendable turnabout, the Obama administration put the issue of conflicts of interest in the financial sector firmly on the table.	但如今，奥巴马政府做出了值得赞美的急转弯，将金融业中的利益冲突问题稳稳地摆上了台面。


The specific context involves the investment advice given to people saving for retirement.	具体内容包括针对退休储蓄的投资建议。


The decisions these savers must make are complex and can have profound consequences.	这些储户所必须做出的决定十分复杂并且后果严重。


Getting it right is difficult even under the best of circumstances.	即使在最佳环境中，做出正确决定也非常不易。


What will interest rates be?	利率会如何变化？


How long will you and your spouse live?	你和你的配偶能活多久？


What will your commitments to your children be, and for how long?	你会怎样养育你的孩子？ 养育多久？


But perhaps the most important question is whether you can trust your financial adviser.	但也许最重要的问题是你是否能信任你的金融顾问。


Some financial advisers in the United States are paid not on the basis of how their clients do, but according to what financial products they persuade them to buy.	在没有，一些金融顾问不是根据其客户做得如何获得报酬，而是根据他们说服客户买了什么金融产品获得报酬。


Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets, a pro-reform group, recently summed up the current situation well: “[A]dvisers can recommend investments that generate lucrative commissions for them, even though their clients get stuck with high fees, subpar performance, and unacceptably risky products."	支持改革的Better Markets组织的丹尼斯·科勒赫（Dennis Kelleher）最近很好地总结了现状：“顾问可以建议能给他们带来丰厚佣金的投资，即使他们的客户因为高昂收费、低劣表现和不可接受的高风险产品而套牢。 ”


Kelleher has been an effective critic of the administration in recent years, pushing long and hard to address all potential conflicts of interest in finance.	科勒赫是近年来奥巴马政府的有力批评者，长期以来一直致力于解决金融业中的潜在利益冲突问题。


And now his analysis and recommendations are being echoed in a new report issued by the Council of Economic Advisers. “Such fee structures," the CEA warns, “generate acute conflicts of interest: the best recommendation for the saver may not be the best recommendation for the adviser's bottom line."	如今，他的分析和建议得到了总统经济顾问委员会（CEA）最新报告的回应：“这种收费结构，”CEA警告说，“制造了尖锐的利益冲突：对储户最优的建议与对顾问收益最优的建议不是同一个建议。


And the CEA goes further, estimating that conflicted investment advice leads to a one-percentage-point drop in return.	CEA更进一步，估算出冲突投资建议导致回报下降了一个百分点。


In today's low-interest-rate environment, that's a huge potential loss.	在当今低利率环境中，这是一笔巨大的潜在损失。


(The actual impact will also depend on what happens to equity prices in the coming years.)	（实际影响也取决于未来多年中的股价表现。 ）


The CEA report provides a useful primer on the issues and data.	CEA报告对问题和数据做了有用的处理。


I wish they weighed in more frequently on finance-related issues, rather than deferring to the US Treasury.	我希望他们更频繁地考虑金融相关问题，而不是唯财政部马首是瞻。


Or they could just listen to Senator Elizabeth Warren as she speaks out repeatedly on a broad range of financial-reform issues.	或者他们可以听听伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）参议员的声音：她一再疾呼各种金融改革问题。


(Warren joined Obama in unveiling the proposal to protect retirement savers.)	（沃伦参与了这份保护退休金储蓄者的议案。 ）


Not surprisingly, at least some people at the US Securities and Exchange Commission have reacted negatively – this is stepping onto their turf, after all.	毫不奇怪，至少一部分美国证券和交易委员会（SEC）官员对此持消极态度——毕竟这是在砸他们的场子。


And the lobbyists are, naturally, out in full force.	而游说集团自然也是暴跳如雷。


But with sufficient White House willpower, the administration can see this through.	但只要白宫下定决心，政府可以坚持到底。


What is needed is a change in the rules set by the Department of Labor, which has jurisdiction over retirement-related issues.	我们所需要的是改变手握退休相关问题大权的劳工部所制定的规则。


No doubt industry defenders will claim that current practices benefit small investors – a point disputed directly by the CEA.	毫不奇怪，产业卫道士会说目前的做法有利于小投资者——CEA直指这一点。


The broader and more interesting question is: Where are the statesmen in the financial industry?	更广泛也更有趣的问题是：金融业中的政治家到哪里去了？


Where are the leaders who push for a race to the top, by better serving their clients' best interests?	宣扬通过更好地服务于客户利益力争上游的领导人到哪里去了？


Jack Bogle, who built his investment-management company, the Vanguard Group, on exactly this principle, with a clear focus on lower fees at every opportunity, has come out strongly in favor of the administration's proposal.	投资管理公司先锋集团（Vanguard Group）创始人杰克·博格尔（Jack Bogle）正是出于这一原则，以旗帜鲜明地降低所有投资机会费用为核心，站出来强力支持了奥巴马政府的方案。


Unfortunately, his remains a lonely voice.	不幸的是，他仍然只是孤家寡人。


Everyone who provides investment advice to retirement savers should act solely in their clients' best interests.	任何向退休金储蓄者提供投资建议的人都应该以客户的最佳利益为唯一准则。


And, judging by the high number of distinguished and honorable professionals in the industry, many advisers, if not most, already do.	此外，从金融业杰出又体面的专业人士数量看，许多顾问（如果不是大多数的话）已经在这么做了。


But there also are too many people being exploited, which harms them individually and discourages savings more broadly.	但仍有太多的人惨遭利用，这既伤害了他们个人，也不利于整体储蓄。


That is why the law should be amended to eliminate as many potential conflicts of interest as possible, by requiring all retirement advisers to act in their clients' best interests at all times.	因此，法律应该做出修订，通过要求所有退休金顾问必须时时刻刻根据客户的最佳利益行事来尽可能多地排除利益冲突。


Such a requirement would be a promising start, but there is still a long way to go.	这一要求是一个良好的开端，但仍有很长的路要走。


All retail investors, not just retirement savers, deserve the same legal protection.	所有散户投资者——而不仅仅是退休金储蓄者——都应该获得同样的法律保护。


Until they get it, the best investment advice may be to assess your adviser carefully, bearing in mind a well-tested performance metric: “Where are the customers' yachts?"	在此之前，最佳投资建议也许是仔细评估你的顾问，在脑海中随时铭记一个久经考验的业绩指标：“客户的游艇在那里？ ”


Obama’s Real Mistake in Syria	奥巴马的叙利亚症结


DENVER – As US President Barack Obama’s eight-year term winds down, he has been facing intensifying criticism for failing to stop the carnage in Syria – what many call his “worst mistake.” But the alternatives his critics tout would have been just as problematic.	发自丹佛——随着美国总统奥巴马的八年任期走向落幕，他所面对的未能阻止叙利亚屠杀行为的批评也日益尖锐——许多人将其称之为“最严重的错误”，但其实这些批评者们吹嘘的替代方案也存在着同样严峻的问题。


Obama’s detractors condemn his decision not to launch a forceful military intervention to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad early in the conflict, when the US could have backed more moderate forces that were supposedly in play.	奥巴马的批评者谴责他未能在冲突爆发初期实施有力的军事干预去颠覆叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德，而当时美国本可支持更多温和派势力去介入冲突。


At the very least, the critics maintain, Obama should have enforced the so-called “red lines” that he set, such as intervening in the event that the Assad regime deployed chemical weapons.	批评者坚称奥巴马最起码应该维护自己划定的所谓“红线”的强制力，比如在阿萨德政权使用化学武器的时候。


In failing to intervene early and decisively, it is said, Obama shirked his United Nations-backed “Responsibility to Protect” civilian populations from governments committing war crimes against them.	批评者认为由于未能及早果断介入，奥巴马逃避了联合国赋予他的“保护平民免遭政府战争罪行侵害的责任”。


Moreover, he left space for external powers that support Assad – especially Russia, which has sent trainers and strike aircraft to help Assad’s forces – to intervene in the conflict.	此外他还为支持阿萨德政权的外部力量——尤其是派出地面作战训练人员和军机来为阿萨德助战的俄罗斯 ——留出了干预冲突的空间。


This criticism misses the mark.	这一批评并未说到重点。


While Obama certainly made mistakes in his Syria policy – mistakes that contributed to the crisis spiraling out of control – the interventionism that is increasingly being championed by liberal and neo-conservative pundits alike has proved destructive on more than one occasion, including in Iraq and Libya.	虽然奥巴马的叙利亚政策确实存在失误——并因此导致危机逐渐失控，但这一失误的源头则是越来越多地被自由主义和新保守主义学者证明在多个事件（包括在伊拉克和利比亚）中存在破坏性的干预主义。


What pundits, politicians, and the public should be advocating is a more integrated foreign policy.	而专家，政治家和公众应该提倡的则是一个更加一体化的外交政策。


Combining leverage and logic, such an approach would advance short- and long-term objectives, selected and prioritized according to their capacity to benefit American interests, not to mention the rest of the world, in a sustainable way.	在杠杆和逻辑相结合的情况下，这样的手段能推动短期和长期目标，并根据对美国（更包含世界其它地区）的利益对其做出甄选和优先排布。


In Syria, a central element of such an approach would have been engagement with Assad.	在叙利亚，这一手段的核心内容就是与阿萨德建立接触和互动。


The initial decision to break off all ties and call for him to step down represents failure of analysis, the effects of which the Obama administration has never been able to escape.	最初那个断绝一切关系并要求阿萨德下台其实体现了分析的失误，而奥巴马政府则始终无法摆脱这一失误的影响。


In 2011, the Obama administration determined that, like in Tunisia and Egypt, the “Arab Spring” uprising in Syria – widely viewed as a broad-based democratic movement – would topple Assad.	2011年时奥巴马政府认定与突尼斯和埃及相近的叙利亚“阿拉伯之春”起义——被外界普遍视为拥有广泛群众基础的民主运动——将推翻阿萨德政权。


Even when the regime launched brutal counter-attacks in places like Hama, Homs, and, most dramatically, in Aleppo, US officials seemed convinced that Assad’s fall was only a matter of time.	即便当该政权在哈马，霍姆斯以及最具戏剧性的阿勒颇等地发动残酷反击之时，美国官员似乎依然确信阿萨德的崩盘只是一个时间问题。


He was cornered, it was believed, and merely flailing desperately against the inexorable tide of history.	人们认定阿萨德已经走投无路，只不过是在滚滚前行历史的洪流中垂死挣扎。


Based on this assessment, the US and others sought to isolate the Assad regime.	在这一判断之下，美国和其他国家试图孤立阿萨德政权。


They worked to unite the opposition groups, often offering significant support. And they called for the establishment of a provisional government and a democratic election.	各国协助整合反抗势力，经常对其大手笔地给予支持，还呼吁建立一个临时政府并举行民主选举。


The assessment was wrong.	但这一判断是有误的。


And, because good policy is impossible without good analysis, so were the policies.	没有正确的分析就不会有正确的政策，而这套政策也是如此。


The flaws in the Obama administration’s appraisal of the Syrian crisis soon became apparent.	奥巴马政府对叙利亚危机的判断缺陷很快就凸显了出来。


Most obvious, Sunni radicals with foreign support quickly dominated the “popular democratic movement.”	其中最明显的莫过于在外国势力支持下的逊尼派激进分子迅速主导了这场“群众民主运动”。


The entity that emerged – the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) – was not trying to take down a brutal dictator, but to suppress nonbelievers and apostates and establish an extreme Sunni Islamist caliphate.	因此衍生出的政治实体——所谓伊斯兰国——并不是为了颠覆一个残酷的独裁者，而是为了压制异教徒和叛教者并建立一个极端逊尼派伊斯兰哈里发国。


To be sure, many outsiders claim that radicalization was not inevitable, and that it occurred precisely because external powers like the US failed to intervene earlier and more forcefully.	当然许多局外人都声称这种激进化转变并不是不可避免的，只是因为美国这样的外部力量没能更早更有力地介入而已。


But studies indicate that the shift happened very early on.	但研究表明这一转变其实在很早期就发生了。


Indeed, the anti-Assad movement may never have been the enlightened democratic coalition that its international supporters claimed it was, at least not completely.	事实上，反阿萨德运动可能根本就跟其国际支持者声称的那种开明民主联盟无关，至少不完全相关。


Beyond misreading the opposition, the Obama administration made another fateful mistake in Syria: failing to take into account the interests of other powers.	除了误读反对派之外，奥巴马政府在叙利亚还犯了另一个致命失误：未能考虑其他大国的利益。


Russia, in particular, has a considerable strategic stake in Syria and serious concerns about its takeover by jihadists, which by many accounts include radical elements from Chechnya.	尤其是俄罗斯在叙利亚拥有相当重大的战略利益，也极端忧虑该国会被圣战者（其中许多派别都涉及来自车臣的极端分子）所把持。


The US dismissed all of this, seemingly unable to take to heart anything members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government had to say.	美国无视了这一切，似乎对俄罗斯总统普京政府官员的任何游说都漠不关心。


Instead, American officials often delivered to their Russian counterparts lectures on the evils of the Assad regime.	相反，美国官员经常向自己的俄罗斯同僚宣讲阿萨德政权的罪恶。


Russia, they declared, simply needed to get on the right side of history.	在他们看来俄罗斯只需要站到历史的正确面就行了。


But would overthrowing a sovereign government – even an appalling dictatorship like Assad’s – really place the US or Russia on the right side of history?	但推翻一个主权国家政府——即便是类似阿萨德这样残暴的独裁政权——真的就能让美国或俄罗斯站在历史的正确一面？


If nothing else, Syria remains a United Nations member.	别的不说，叙利亚还是联合国成员国。


And it is worth remembering, yet again, how previous attempts at forcible regime change, such as in Libya, turned out.	另外值得我们铭记的是，从前那些强行实现政权更迭的尝试（比���利比亚）最终又落得何种结果？


Yet in the US and elsewhere (tellingly, far from the frontlines), the chattering classes continue to agonize about supposed lost opportunities to intervene militarily and protect civilians.	然而在美国及其他国家（显然都远离叙利亚前线），那些象牙塔里的学者们依然围绕着丢失军事干预和保护平民的契机而喋喋不休。


Few seem willing to consider the possibility that the real lost opportunity actually lies in the failure to help spearhead the negotiation of a viable, peace-enhancing settlement.	却似乎很少有人愿意去思考：真正失去的机会在于未能尽早启动谈判并制定一个可行的，促进和平的安置方案。


Perhaps it is a matter of simple political self-preservation: in the US, maybe more than elsewhere, changing one’s mind is derided as flip-flopping, and considered a worse option than sticking to a failed policy.	这也许单纯是为了政治自保：在美国——在其他国家可能没那么严重——改变主意会被讥讽为墙头草，甚至被视为比坚持一项失败政策更糟糕的选择。


Nonetheless, some promising adjustments are, it seems, being made.	尽管如此，似乎目前有一些更有前景的调整正在制定出来。


Now that ISIS is losing ground, the US and Russia have begun to deepen discussions on greater military coordination.	如今ISIS节节败退，美国和俄罗斯已经开始深入讨论更大范围的军事合作。


One hopes that this cooperation extends to planning how a complex and devastated society can be administered in the future.	人们希望这种合作能进一步延伸，涵盖未来如何治理这个成分复杂且饱受摧残的叙利亚社会。


Of course, at this point, it is impossible to say what will emerge from the Syrian crisis.	当然在这个时间点上也难以预测叙利亚危机最终将催生一个什么样的结果。


A new Sunni-led state?	一个新的逊尼派国家？


Multiple new states?	还是数个新国家？


Even a re-drawn map of the Middle East is a possibility.	甚至重绘中东地图都有可能。


What is certain is that the outcome will have a major impact on Syria’s neighbors and the broader international community.	可以肯定的是，该一结果将对叙利亚各邻国乃至更广泛的国际社会产生重大影响。


Their interests, together with the interests of the Syrian people, must inform any effort to end the carnage and create conditions for long-term peace.	任何试图结束这场屠杀并为实现长期和平创造条件的努力都必须与它们的利益以及叙利亚人民的利益结合一致。


Rapprochements with Rogue States	与流氓国家和解


SEOUL – In his State of the Union address to the US Congress in 2002, President George W. Bush famously described Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as an “axis of evil.”	首尔——在2002年面对美国国会的国情咨文中，乔治·W·布什总统众所周知地将伊拉克、伊朗和朝鲜描述成“邪恶轴心”。


In the years since, however, America has not treated each in the same way.	但之后的几年里，美国对待上述国家的方式却有所不同。


The differences are highly instructive.	其中的差异很能发人深省。


Bush and his hardline advisers believed that only force or “regime change” would stop these “rogue” states’ terrorism or their programs to acquire “weapons of mass destruction.”	布什及其强硬派顾问认为只有武力或“政权更迭”才能阻止这些“流氓”国家的恐怖主义及其获取“大规模杀伤性武器”的计划。


So, in March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq, resulting in a state of near-constant civil war for over a decade; an ineffectual central government in Baghdad; and now the rise of the Islamic State.	因此，2003年3月，美国入侵伊拉克，造成了长达十余年的持续内战； 无效的巴格达中央政府和现在伊斯兰国的崛起。


In Iran, then-President Mohammad Khatami, a political moderate, offered what might have been a reasonable deal to curb the country’s nuclear program.	伊朗时任总统穆罕默德·哈塔米在政治上相对温和，提出了一份原本可能是遏制该国核计划的合理方案。


But Bush and his team preferred to pressure Iran with sanctions and military threats, and any hope for a negotiated solution vanished when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad succeeded Khatami in 2005.	但布什及其团队更愿意用制裁和军事威胁对伊朗施压，2005年内贾德接替哈塔米后任何谈判解决的希望也随之烟消云散。


It was only when another moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, took office in 2013 that hope for a negotiated solution could be revived.	只有当另一位温和派总统鲁哈尼于2013年继任才又恢复了谈判解决的希望。


Fortunately, US President Barack Obama has not missed the opportunities that were presented to him.	幸运的是，美国总统奥巴马并没有错过这次上天赋予的机会。


Indeed, the recent agreement with Iran, coming after diplomatic breakthroughs with Myanmar and Cuba, should make those who speak of an America in decline think again.	事实上，与伊朗近来达成的协议继缅甸和古巴的外交突破后，应该能让那些谈论美国衰落的人重新思考。


But what of North Korea, the last member of that notorious axis?	但臭名昭著的轴心最后一个成员朝鲜怎么办？


For the Bush administration, the Geneva Agreed Framework, signed in 1994 by North Korea and the US with the aim of freezing the North’s nuclear activity and gradually decommissioning its graphite-moderated reactors, was an act of appeasement by the “naive” administration of President Bill Clinton.	在布什政府看来，1994年朝鲜和美国签署的冻结朝鲜核活动及逐步淘汰其石墨慢化反应堆的日内瓦框架协议是比尔·克林顿总统“幼稚”内阁的绥靖之举。


Bush’s administration preferred a harder line, using the so-called six-party talks, begun in 2003 and involving the US, China, Russia, Japan, and North and South Korea, to act almost as a pressure-cooker.	布什政府首选强硬路线，利用2003年开始的美、中、俄、日、朝、韩参加的所谓六方会谈向朝鲜施加压力。


Though not publicly declared, it was widely believed that key American policymakers wanted regime change.	尽管从未公开宣布，但人们普遍认为关键美国决策者想促成政权更迭。


But, though Bush maintained America’s hard line toward Iran, in 2006 he changed tack in dealing with North Korea and began seeking a deal – doubtless influenced by the North’s first nuclear test, carried out in October of that year.	但尽管布什保持着美国对伊朗的强硬态度，2006年他改变了对朝政策，开始力求达成协议——朝鲜那年10月进行的首次核试验无疑影响了布什的决策。


An eventual agreement, reached in the fifth round of the six-party talks in February 2007, could not be implemented because of North Korea’s refusal to agree on a verification protocol.	2007年2月第五轮六方会谈达成的最终协议因为朝鲜拒绝签署核查条款而无法执行下去。


When Obama entered office in January 2009 and offered to “extend a hand” to Bush’s rogue states, optimists hoped for the negotiated denuclearization of North Korea.	当2009年1月奥巴马就任并表示愿意向布什的流氓国家“伸出援助之手”，乐观主义者曾寄希望于谈判实现朝鲜无核化。


Sadly, North Korea has betrayed the US at least three times since then: it conducted a second nuclear test in May 2009; launched a satellite in April 2012 in defiance of UN Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874; and carried out a third nuclear test in February 2013.	可悲的是，朝鲜从那以后背叛了美国至少三次：2009年5月进行了第二次核试验； 2012年4月无视联合国安理会1718和1874号决议发射了一颗卫星；


Given the North Korean regime’s frequent threats to turn American targets, from Hawaii to Washington, into “a sea of fire,” optimism is hard to sustain.	并于2013年2月进行了第三次核试验。 鉴于朝鲜政权频繁威胁要将从夏威夷到华盛顿的美国目标变成一片“火海”，乐观主义情绪的确很难持续。


What should experience with the “axis of evil” trio since 2002 tell US policymakers?	美国决策者应该从2002年来的“邪恶轴心”三重奏经历中学到什么？


First, aiming for “policy change” makes more sense than striving for regime change.	首先，争取“政策变化”比追求政权更迭更有意义。


The Bush administration changed the regime in Iraq, but at a monumental cost that is still being paid.	布什政府改变了伊拉克政权，但由此带来的巨大代价现在还没有支付完毕。


In contrast, Obama’s goal concerning Iran was modest and focused on denuclearization. It has borne fruit.	相比之下，奥巴马集中实现无核化的适度伊朗目标已经取得了成绩。


What, then, does this imply with respect to North Korea?	那么这对朝鲜有什么意义？


Given the Kim regime’s past negotiating tactics, Obama is understandably reluctant to launch any new diplomatic initiative and may well believe that negotiating with North Korea would provide his domestic political opponents with ammunition to ruin his Iran deal.	鉴于金正恩政权过往的谈判策略，奥巴马当然不愿轻易发起新的外交倡议，并且很可能认为与朝鲜谈判会为其国内政治对手提供弹药摧毁其伊朗协议。


So the wait-and-see approach is likely to continue.	因此，等待和观望策略可能会继续。


Yet just waiting for North Korea to collapse is a regime-change strategy by default – and the cost of a chaotic or violent collapse could be frighteningly high.	但等待朝鲜政权崩溃只是默认情况下的政权更迭策略——混乱或暴力崩溃的代价可能高得让人承受不起。


Indeed, the fear of this cost is what keeps China so passive where its North Korean client is concerned.	事实上，正是对上述代价的恐惧让中国在朝鲜问题上采取如此被动的态度。


But time is not on America’s side.	但美国并没有太多时间可以浪费。


North Korea continues to enlarge its nuclear stockpile and develop long-range missile technologies (it can already launch a ballistic missile capable of hitting America’s west coast).	朝鲜继续扩大核武库及发展远程导弹技术（它已经可以发射能打到美国西海岸的弹道导弹）。


In short, the country is becoming a direct security threat to the US.	总之，这个国家正在成为对美国安全的直接威胁。


Accordingly, US policymakers should have only limited aims in dealing with North Korea, and they should recognize that they will be achieved only by linking them to economic benefits for the Kim regime.	因此，美国决策者应限制对朝交往的目的，并且认识到只有为金正恩政权提供经济利益才能实现这些目的。


Libya’s decision to abandon its nuclear option in December 2003 and the Iran deal this year were both possible for precisely this reason.	利比亚2003年12月放弃核计划和伊朗今年签署核协议都恰恰是因为上述原因。


North Korea, of course, is neither Libya nor Iran.	当然，朝鲜既非利比亚亦非伊朗。


But it is also not the hermit state of the 1950s, having moved significantly toward a market economy in recent years.	但也并非20世纪50年代彻底的隐士，这个国家近年来已经在市场经济领域取得了重大进步。


Indeed, by the early 2000s, more than four-fifths of an average North Korean’s household income comprised unofficial earnings from market activities.	事实上，到21世纪初，超过五分之四的朝鲜普通家庭收入都将包含来自市场行为的非官方收益。


At the same time, the regime depends on taxes on international trade to support itself.	与此同时，朝鲜政权要靠国际贸易税来支撑自己。


North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, is no reformist like China’s Deng Xiaoping; but his regime is becoming more like China’s every day, owing to the irreversible expansion of market forces.	朝鲜领袖金正恩绝非中国邓小平式的改革分子； 但因为市场不可逆转的扩张力量，他的政权正日复一日变得与中国越来越相似。


This will certainly change the context in which Kim calculates the cost and benefits of his nuclear program.	这肯定会改变金计算其核计划成本及收益的大环境。


The West should facilitate this change in his calculus.	西方应当竭力促成这样的改变。


Moreover, the fact that the US, China, and Russia could cooperate on the Iran deal might prove helpful.	此外，美、中、俄能就伊朗协议合作或许非常有益。


In particular, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s position on North Korea’s nuclear program is closer to America’s than that of any of his predecessors.	特别是中国主席习近平对朝鲜核问题的立场比任何一位前任都更和美国相似。


Given North Korea’s economic dependence on China – which accounts for some 90% of its trade nowadays – it is critical to take advantage of this policy convergence.	鉴于朝鲜对中国的经济依赖——中朝贸易现在占朝鲜贸易量的90%——美国一定要利用这种政策趋同的优势。


The best way to do that would be to forgo “strategic patience” and begin informal contact with the North to probe Kim’s intentions.	实现这一目的的最好方法是放弃“战略耐心”，并开始非正式接触朝鲜金正恩以了解其目的。


After all, with a regime as volatile as North Korea’s, patience is never a virtue.	毕竟，在牵涉到像朝鲜一样的不稳定政权时，耐心从来不起什么作用。


Leading By Engaging	通过参与领导


WASHINGTON, DC – In his first inaugural address, US President Barack Obama offered an invitation to the world’s most closed countries.	华盛顿—在他的第一次就职演说中，美国总统奥巴马向全世界最封闭的国家发出了邀请。


“We will extend a hand,” he said, “if you are willing to unclench your fist.”	“我们将伸出我们的手，”他说，“如果你们愿意松开拳头。


This statement encapsulated the foreign policy of “engagement” that he endorsed during his first term – an approach that, despite some shortcomings, has a lot of merit.	”这番话概括了他在第一个任期中所采取的“参与”外交政策——这一方针尽管存在一些缺陷，但优点也很多。


Obama rejected his predecessor George W. Bush’s policy of isolating “rogue states,” recognizing that America’s only hope for influencing isolated countries’ behavior was to engage directly with them in a bilateral context.	奥巴马拒绝了他的前任小布什的孤立“流氓国家”的政策，承认美国影响被孤立国家行为的唯一希望是直接参与到与它们的双边环境中。


And, as a bilateral strategy, engagement has proved to be astonishingly successful, having led to historic openings, first to Myanmar and now to Cuba, while driving progress toward an enduring nuclear agreement with Iran.	此外，作为双边战略的参与取得了令人惊讶的成功，带来了历史性的开放，首先是缅甸，现在是古巴，同时也推进了与伊朗的长期核协议。


From the beginning, however, the Obama administration has made clear that engagement is not an end in itself, but a means to various goals, both bilateral and regional.	但是，从一开始，奥巴马政府就挑明，参与本身不是终点，而是实现诸多目标——包括双边和地区目标的方法。


In Myanmar, the bilateral goal was to nudge the government toward greater openness and democracy – something that has unquestionably happened.	在缅甸，双边目标是推动缅甸政府更加开放、更加民主——这毫无疑问已经成为事实。 亲民主领导人、诺贝尔奖获得者昂山素季从软禁中获释；


The pro-democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest; her party won seats in parliament; and millions of Burmese are now studying their country’s constitution and have petitioned for amendments.	她的政党赢得了议会席位； 数百万缅甸人开始学习本国宪法并请愿修宪。


To be sure, much remains to be done.	平心而论，前路仍然漫漫。


The journalist Martin Woolacott describes Myanmar as a “halfway house between military and civilian rule,” observing that the country’s generals have been promising to complete the transition to democracy for several years now, yet remain unwilling to allow Suu Kyi to run for President.	记者马丁·乌拉考特（Martin Woolacott）说 缅甸是一个“介于军政和文治之间的混合体，”他观察到，几年来缅甸的将军们一直在承诺向民主转型，但始终不愿允许昂山素季竞选总统。


But this should not obscure the progress that has been made; compared to 2009, when Obama took office, Myanmar and its politics are unrecognizable.	但这不应该抹杀已经取得的进步； 与2009年奥巴马上台时相比，缅甸及其政坛已经焕然一新。


While Obama would likely acknowledge that US policy did not bring about these changes (which resulted from an internal process of recalculation by the president, General Thein Sein), the US was responsive and flexible enough to encourage them.	奥巴马也许会承认，并非美国的政策带来了这些变化（它们来自总统吴登盛将军的重新算计的内部过程），但美国积极响应并灵活地鼓励了这些变化。


On the regional front, Obama hoped that an opening with Myanmar would ensure that the country did not become wholly dependent on China, while enabling the US to deepen its relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.	在地区层面，奥巴马希望缅甸的开放能确保该国不会完全依赖中国，同时让美国能够深化与东盟的关系。


The resumption of diplomatic relations with Myanmar was a critical feature of the Obama administration’s “rebalancing” toward Asia.	与缅甸重建外交关系是奥巴马政府向亚洲“再平衡”政策的关键特征。


As for Cuba, Obama’s primary goal seems to be to bolster respect for ordinary Cubans’ human rights, not to bring about regime change.	至于古巴，奥巴马的主要目标是促进对普通古巴人民人权的尊重，而不是改朝换代。


While it is too soon to assess the opening’s impact in terms of reducing repression, the opportunity it presents for Cubans to engage with Americans – first family to family, then business to business – is significant.	目前定论开放对减轻压迫的作用还为时尚早，但其为古巴人民带来的与美国人互动的机会——首先是家庭间互动，然后是企业间互动——是巨大的。


In regional terms, Obama’s restoration of relations with Cuba merits a place in the history books alongside Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s opening to China.	在地区层面，奥巴马与古巴重建关系是堪与尼克松和基辛格向中国开放相提并论的历史事件。


As grandiose as that claim may seem, the fact is that crossing the straits to Cuba signals a new, more open, and far more productive approach to relations with all of Latin America.	这也许是溢美之辞，但事实是跨越海峡向古巴开放标志着新的、更开放的、效果也远远更好的构建与所有拉美国家关系的方针。


Over the last decade, US leaders’ efforts to establish productive frameworks for multilateral cooperation with Latin America – including attempts to reinvigorate the Organization of American States and build up new forums like the Summit of the Americas – have run aground on their continued isolation of Cuba.	在过去十年中，美国领导人试图为与拉丁美洲建立的多边关系建立建设性框架——包括试图为美洲国家组织（Organization of American States）重新注入活力和构建美洲峰会（Summit of the Americas）——但因为他们一直孤立古巴而失败。


Indeed, the 2012 Summit of the Americas in Cartagena became an exercise in America-bashing, with countries threatening to boycott the 2015 summit if Cuba was not invited.	事实上，2012年卡塔赫纳（Cartagena）美洲峰会成了一次抨击美国的大会，各国威胁，如果2015年不邀请古巴与会，就抵制峰会。


Fortunately, the US stepped up to the challenge, and, with Cuba at the table, the summit was held in Panama this month.	幸运的是，美国直面挑战，而古巴也一起参与了本月的巴拿马峰会。


As a result, the Summit of the Americas and other regional organizations are better positioned to address regional crises, like the coming meltdown in Venezuela, and opportunities, such as the establishment of a hemispheric energy, trade, and law-enforcement infrastructure.	因此，美洲峰会和其他地区组织更适合解决地区危机——如即将到来的委内瑞拉崩溃和制造机会——如建立西半球能源、贸易和执法基础设施。


A nuclear deal with Iran would have similarly important implications in the Middle East and Southwest Asia – a prospect that largely explains fervent opposition to negotiations by Israel and Saudi Arabia.	与伊朗的核协议对中东和东南亚也具有类似的重要影响——这一前景可以很好地解释以色列和沙特阿拉伯对谈判的频频作梗。


While the deal will stand or fall on the extent to which it pulls Iran back from the nuclear brink, it can also open the door to further bilateral negotiations on matters of common interest, from ending the war in Syria to cracking down on drug-running in Afghanistan.	协议的成败取决于它能在多大程度上让伊朗远离核悬崖���但它也开启了关于公共利益的后续谈判的大门，如结束叙利亚战争和打击阿富汗贩毒。


Already, Obama’s policy of engagement has led to the most bilateral interaction since the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis in 1979.	目前，奥巴马的参与政策已经带来了自1979年伊朗革命个和人质危机以来最大的双边互动。


Whatever America’s Republican Party tries to claim during the 2016 presidential election campaign, Obama’s policy of engagement has worked, enabling the US to shape events in even the most closed countries.	不论美国共和党在2016年总统选战期间打出什么口号，奥巴马的参与政策是有效的，它让美国能够影响哪怕是最封闭国家的事件。


So why do pundits continue to debate America’s supposedly declining global influence?	因此，为何专家还要继续争论想象中的美国全球影响力衰落的问题？


(Just last week, the topic made the front page of the New York Times, in an article that quoted a former treasury official as saying, “We’re withdrawing from the central place we held on the international stage.”)	（上周这一主题还登上了《纽约时报》的头版，一篇文章引用一位前财政部官员的话说：“我们正在退出我们在国际舞台上的中心地位。 ”）


One answer is that domestic political dysfunction has severely handicapped the president in international negotiations.	一个答案是国内政治僵局严重制约了总统在国际谈判中的手脚。


For example, the US Congress has blocked changes to countries’ quota allocations at the International Monetary Fund.	比如，美国国会拒不批准国际货币基金组织各国配额分配的改革方案。


And a group of 47 Republican senators wrote a letter to Iran’s leaders announcing that the next Congress may not honor whatever nuclear deal they reach with Obama.	47位共和党参议员集体致信伊朗领导人，宣称下一届国会将不支持他们与奥巴马所达成的任何核协议。


Another source of doubt about America’s enduring influence lies in the fact that multilateral engagement is still needed, and this is always more difficult than bilateral engagement.	对美国影响力存续的另一个质疑源来自一个事实：多边参与仍然必要，并且永远比双边参与更难。


Indeed, multilateral leadership requires not only clearer and bolder rules, but also a demonstrated willingness to bear the costs of those rules, whether by creating safe zones to uphold the “responsibility to protect” civilians or taking concrete steps to reduce – and eventually eliminate – nuclear arsenals.	事实上，多边领导不仅需要更清晰、更明确的规则，还需要证明承担这些规则的成本的意愿，不论是通过建立安全区以履行平民“保护责任”还是通过采取扎实步骤削减——并最终消除——核武库实现。


Bilateral engagement will prove to be one of Obama’s most important foreign-policy legacies.	双边参与将是奥巴马最重要的外交政策遗产。


But ensuring that the US can continue to lead in the twenty-first century will require a different kind of engagement.	但确保美国能够在二十一世纪继续领导世界需要不同类型的参与。


That will be a critical task for America’s next president.	这将是下一任美国总统的关键任务。


Obama Gets It Right	奥巴马的正确选择


NEW YORK – US President Barack Obama has been much criticized for the way he has handled revolutionary changes in North Africa and the Middle East.	纽约——美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马因其对北非和中东革命性变化的处置方式而倍受诘难。


Actually, he has not handled them very much, at least not in public.	实际上他没有采取多少行动，至少没有在公众面前。


That is precisely the problem for armchair warriors watching events unfold on their computer and television screens in Washington and New York.	这完全是那些纸上谈兵的战士们自己的误解，这些人只是在华盛顿和纽约的电脑和电视屏幕上关注事态的发展。


They want Obama to handle things more.	他们希望奥巴马更进一步。


Instead of taking a cautious approach, and letting the demonstrators in Iran, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, and other places do the shouting, they want him to talk tough, or, better yet, to send in the US Air Force and blast Qaddafi’s jet fighters and helicopter gunships out of the sky.	不要谨言慎行而让伊朗、突尼斯、埃及、利比亚、巴林、也门和其他国家的示威者们大喊大叫，他们想让他摆出强硬姿态，最好是派遣美国空军把卡扎菲的喷气战斗机和武装直升机从天上打下来。


They want Obama to tell those dictators to quit right now, or else…	他们想让奥巴马告诉那些独裁者立即停手，否则…


Or else what, exactly?	否则究竟该怎么办？


To be sure, the US government has coddled too many brutal dictators over the last half-century.	可以肯定，美国政府在过去半个世纪已经纵容了太多残暴的独裁政权。


During the Cold War, dictators benefitted from American largesse as long as they were anti-Communist (“our bastards”).	冷战期间，独裁者只要答应反共（“我们的敌人”）就可以享受美国的慷慨援助。


Middle Eastern dictators were showered with money and arms if they refrained from attacking Israel and kept the Islamists down.	中东独裁者只要不攻击以色列并压制伊斯兰教徒，就可以得到大批的资金和武器。


In both cases, these cozy relationships were maintained for far too long.	无论如何，这种不问是非的关系持续的时间都已经太长。


In Arab countries, they only helped to inflame Islamic extremism.	这种做法在阿拉伯国家的唯一效果就是为伊斯兰极端主义火上浇油。


And yet, in order to begin a transition to more democratic forms of government, it helps to be a client state of the US.	不过，成为美国的附属国有助于开始向更民主的政府形式过渡。


During the 1980’s, South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan managed to ditch their dictators, partly because they were utterly dependent on US arms and money.	20世纪80年代，韩国、菲律宾和台湾成功地摆脱了独裁统治，这部分因为他们对美国武器和资金的完全依赖。


When the Cold War was drawing to a close, anti-Communism no longer guaranteed US protection.	随着冷战的结束，反共不再是确保美国保护的万全之策。


So, when Koreans, Filipinos, and Taiwanese rose up against their rulers, the US, albeit belatedly, was in a position to tell their military clients to back off.	因此，当韩国人、菲律宾人和台湾人发动起义的时候，美国尽管反应迟缓，但都告诫自己的军事代理退后。


In a discreet way, something like this probably happened in Egypt as well.	类似情况可能也以某种不起眼的方式发生在埃及。


Unfortunately, this type of pressure could not work in China when its people demanded what other Asians had won.	遗憾的是，当中国人要求其他亚洲人已经得到的权利时此类压力不起作用。


Both the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army could survive without US patronage.	中国共产党和中国人民解放军根本不需要美国的援助。


The same is true of the semi-theocratic regime in Iran.	伊朗的半神化政权也是如此。


If Qaddafi finally goes, it will not be because his army is dependent on the US.	即使卡扎菲最终下台，也绝不会因为他的军队需要依赖美国。


But there is another problem with the US taking a leading role in political revolts in the Middle East.	但另有原因决定美国不应领导中东地区的政治反抗。


Some of the same people who accuse Obama today of being “soft” were keen promoters of the war in Iraq.	今天指责奥巴马太过“软弱”的同样一批人曾经是伊拉克战争的狂热支持者。


Back then, they expected that the “shock and awe” of US force would not only topple the dictator (which turned out to be true), but also that the US-led invasion would be greeted with enthusiasm by the liberated Iraqis, who would then herald a new democratic era in the Middle East.	当时，他们认为美国军队造成的“震慑与敬畏”不仅能够推翻独裁政权（这个目标已经实现），而且由美国领导的入侵会受到解放伊拉克民众的热烈欢迎，并将开启中东新的民主时代。


One casualty of that brutal enterprise, apart from the roughly 100,000 Iraqis who have died and the millions more who have become refugees, is trust in the US as a force for good.	除100，000名伊拉克人丧生、数百万人沦为难民外，对美国正义力量的信任也在这项残酷的事业中沦为了陪葬。


Operation Iraqi Freedom, not to mention Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, gave American efforts to promote democracy a terrible name.	伊拉克自由行动，更不要说阿富汗持久自由行动，都用可怕的恶名来形容美国推动民主的努力。


People want freedom, but not when it comes from the barrel of a US gun.	民众想要自由，但不接受这种自由出自美国的枪口。


So far, anti-American rhetoric has been remarkably muted in the uprisings sweeping the Middle East.	迄今为止，在席卷中东的起义中反美言论却出奇的寂静。


The cynical way in which despots try to discredit all opposition as the work of foreign agents no doubt plays a part in this silence.	专制君主让所有反对派背上外国代理恶名的阴险方式无疑在这种寂静中起到了作用。


But so does Obama’s public discretion.	但奥巴马的公众决定权也功不可没。


His conciliatory speech in Cairo on June 4, 2009, much derided by hawks in the US, together with his general lack of bluster, created enough space for the opponents of Middle Eastern dictators to rebel without being tainted in any way by foreign intervention.	他2009年6月4日在开罗的和解讲话虽然倍受美国鹰派的嘲弄，但却和不事张扬的姿态一起为中东独裁政权的反对者创造了足够的空间，让他们不致背上外国干预的罪名而无法洗脱。


It is their show, and so it should be.	这是他们的事情，因此外人不要插手。


But that is not to say that the US must always be passive.	但这并不是说美国应该永远采取消极的态度。


In fact, it has not been.	事实并非如此。


Where America’s influence counts, as in the case of the Egyptian military, it has been used.	在美国影响力能够波及的领域，比方说埃及军队，这种影响力已经在发挥作用。


And Obama has made his support of democratic aspirations clear, to the dismay of allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.	而且奥巴马明确表示支持民主诉求，这一点是以色列和沙特阿拉伯等盟友始料未及的。


However, as recent history has shown, toppling strongmen is only the beginning of the democratization process.	但正像近来事态发展所表明的那样，推翻独裁政权只不过是民主进程的开始。


Building institutions that guarantee not only political liberties, but also the protection of minorities, as well as other liberal conditions, is difficult enough in countries where such institutions had once existed, as in post-communist Central Europe.	制度安排不仅要保证政治自由、还要保护少数族裔及其他自由状态。 即使在曾经存在过此类制度安排的后共产主义中欧国家重建这样的制度已经困难重重。


It will be harder in countries where they did not, or where the economy remains largely in the hands of the armed forces.	在上述制度从未存在过、或经济大权基本掌握在军队手中的国家，建立这样的制度安排将会更加困难。


Armed Anglo-American intervention, especially if it is not sanctioned by the United Nations, would do much to undermine liberals and democrats, who need all the credibility they can get.	武装英美干预，特别是在没有获得联合国批准的情况下，会破坏自由及民主人士的可信性，而他们需要不惜一切代价取得信任。


There are no doubt some among the demonstrators who would like Obama to be more strident in his support of their aims.	无疑抗议者中有某些人士希望奥巴马以更强硬的姿态支持他们的目标。


Some even call for more active US assistance.	有人甚至呼吁美国给予积极的援助。


There may be things that Western powers can do to alleviate the suffering, by offering aid to refugees, for example, or use the latest technology to keep lines of information open.	西方强国或许可以采取某些减轻痛苦的措施，比方说为难民提供援助，或运用最新技术保持信息畅通。


But American hawks want what most opposition leaders in Libya have expressly rejected.	但美国鹰派所期望的正是多数利比亚反对党领袖明确拒绝的。


They want the US to show leadership, which is the last thing aspiring democrats need right now.	他们希望美国掌握主导权，目前这最不符合雄心勃勃的民主人士的需要。


People in the Middle East and North Africa have been led by the West, or by Western-backed dictators, for long enough.	中东和北非的民众已经被西方、或由西方支持的独裁者统治了太长的时间。


They must find their own way to freedom.	他们必须找到自己的自由之路。


Obama seems to understand this.	奥巴马似乎理解这个问题。


Which is why he has done all right.	他也因此做出了正确的选择。


The Domestic Threat to US Leadership	美国领导力的国内威胁


CAMBRIDGE – US President Barack Obama has racked up a series of foreign-policy triumphs over the last 12 months.	坎布里奇—在过去12个月中，美国总统奥巴马取得了一系列外交政策胜利。


But one that has gained less attention than others was the passage last December of legislation to reform the International Monetary Fund, after five years of obstruction by the US Congress.	但其中一项获得较少关注的是去年12月通过的国际货币基金组织（IMF）改革立法。 IMF改革已被美国国会阻碍了五年。


As the IMF convenes in Washington, DC, for its annual spring meetings on April 15-17, we should pause to savor the importance of this achievement.	4月15—17日，IMF将在华盛顿召开春季年会，我们应该仔细体会这一成就的重要性。


After all, if the United States had let yet another year go by without ratifying the IMF quota reform, it would have essentially handed over the keys of global economic leadership to China.	毕竟，如果美国在过去的一年里让IMF配额改革再次无功而返，它基本上就将全球经济领导力的钥匙传给了中国。


The IMF reform was crucial: The allocation of monetary contributions and voting power among member countries had to be updated to reflect the shifts in global economic power in recent decades.	IMF改革至关重要：成员国之间货币贡献和投票权的配置必须更新以反映近几十年来全球经济力量的变迁。


Specifically, emerging-market economies like Brazil, China, and India gained a larger role, primarily at the expense of European and Persian Gulf countries.	具体而言，巴西、中国和印度等新兴市场经济体获得了更大的角色，而做出牺牲的主要是欧洲和波斯湾国家。


Obama managed to persuade the leaders of the other G-20 countries to agree to the reform at a 2010 summit in Seoul.	奥巴马成功说服其他G-20国家领导人在2010年首尔峰会上同意IMF改革。


The deal’s subsequent approval should have been a no-brainer for Congress, as it neither increased America’s financial obligations nor took away its voting dominance.	该协议随后在国会通过应该是理所当然，因为它既没有增加美国的金融义务，也没有影响到美国的投票主宰地位。


More important, the reform represented a golden opportunity for the US to demonstrate global leadership, by recognizing that the existing international order must accommodate changing economic-power dynamics.	更重要的是，这项改革是美国通过承认现有国际秩序必须适应经济力量变化动态而证明其全球领导力的黄金机会。


Instead, Congress attempted to block IMF reform, effectively denying China its rightful place at the table of global governance.	相反，国会试图阻碍IMF改革，事实上否认中国在国际治理中的正确地位。


“Moving the goal posts” could succeed only in driving the Chinese to establish their own institutions.	“移动门柱”只能成功地推动中国成立其自己的机构。


In this sense, Congressional intransigence may have undermined America’s position in its competition with China for global power and influence.	从这个角度讲，国会不让步可能影响到美国在于中国竞争全球实力和影响力中的处境。


To most Asians, the US is a more attractive regional hegemon than a China that has been aggressively pursuing territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.	对大部分亚洲人来说，美国是比一直在积极追求东海和南海领土主张的中国更有吸引力的地区霸权。


But recent US behavior has caused some Asian countries to begin to question America’s commitment to supporting regional security and prosperity.	但美国最近的行为让一些亚洲国家开始质疑美国关于支持地区安全与繁荣的承诺。


Against this background, many countries, both inside and outside Asia, were happy to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which promised to meet some of the region’s financing needs.	再这样的北京下，许多国家（包括亚洲和亚洲之外的国家）乐于加入中国领导的亚洲基础设施投资银行，该银行承诺满足该地区的某些融资需求。


The AIIB’s establishment in December was widely viewed as a severe diplomatic setback for the US.	12月亚投行的成立被广泛视为美国外交的一大失利。


Fortunately, thanks to Obama’s recent string of successes in terms of global engagement, the US now has a chance to get back into the game.	幸运的是，由于奥巴马最近在全球参与方面取得了一系列成功，现在美国有机会重新回到游戏中。


Last April, his administration oversaw a breakthrough agreement with Iran over its nuclear program.	去年4月，奥巴马政府实现了与伊朗就其核计划达成突破性协议。


Moreover, in October, Congress was persuaded to give it Trade Promotion Authority, enabling the completion of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).	此外，10月份国会被说服授予奥巴马政府贸易促进权（Trade Promotion Authority），从而使得包括12个国家的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（TPP）得以完成。


More recently, the US has reestablished diplomatic relations with Cuba, ending a 55-year policy of isolation that succeeded only in giving Cuba’s leaders an excuse for economic failure and handicapping America’s relationships throughout Latin America.	此后，美国与古巴恢复了外交关系，结束了为期55年的孤立政策。 孤立政策的唯一成果是给了古巴领导人经济失败的借口、妨碍美国与整个拉丁美洲的关系。


Finally, representatives of the 195 parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change reached an agreement in Paris last December to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, spurred in no small part by earlier action by Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping.	最后，去年12月，联合国气候变化框架公约195个成员的代表在巴黎形成了减少温室气体排放的协议，其中奥巴马与中国国家主席习近平在此之前的行动功不可没。


The two leaders are scheduled to sign the Paris agreement on April 22 on behalf of their respective countries, the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases.	根据安排，两位领导人将在4月22日代表各自国家（世界上温室气体排放量最大的两个国家）签署巴黎协定。


Add to that the ratification, at long last, of IMF reform, and the US does seem to be on a global winning streak.	然后是经历了漫长等待终于到来的IMF改革批准立法，美国确实似乎走上了全球连胜道路。


None of these five achievements could have been predicted a year ago.	这五大成就在一年前都无法预测。


With the Republicans having taken full control of the Congress in November 2014, the overwhelming conventional wisdom was that the administration would be blocked from accomplishing much in its final two years.	2014年11月，共和党完全控制了国会，压倒性的传统智慧认为奥巴马政府在其最后两年中不会有多少作为。


Making matters worse, internationalism attracts opposition from the far left as well as the far right.	更糟糕的是，国际主义吸引了极左翼和极右翼的反对。


Though trade is the most obvious example, it is not the only one.	尽管贸易是显而易见的例子，但它不是唯一的例子。


Beyond opposing the TPP, US presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has historically joined with congressional Republicans in trying to block efforts to rescue emerging-market countries in Latin America and Asia at times of financial crisis.	除了反对TPP，美国总统候选人伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）历史上还与国会共和党一起试图阻碍在金融危机时期救援拉丁美洲和亚洲新兴市场国家。


These rescues are invariably called “bailouts,” even when they cost the US nothing – the US Treasury actually made a profit on the 1995 loan to Mexico that Sanders opposed – and help sustain economic growth.	这些救援一概被称为“援助”，即使它们并没有给美国造成成本——美国财政部实际上还从1995年桑德斯所反对的对墨西哥贷款中有所盈利——并且帮助维持了经济增长。


Similarly, New York Senator Chuck Schumer joined the Republicans in trying to block the Iran nuclear agreement.	类似地，纽约州参议院查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）也与共和党一起试图阻碍伊朗核协议。


Obama’s recent international successes are not unassailable.	奥巴马最近所获得的国际成功并非无懈可击。


Although the IMF deal is done, Obama’s other key initiatives could still be derailed by US politics, especially if the political extremes unite.	尽管IMF协议终于达成，但奥巴马的其他关键措施仍有可能因为美国政治而流产，特别是如果政治极端派联合起来的话。


Congress could reject the TPP, in effect telling Asia it is on its own.	国会可能拒绝TPP，在事实上让亚洲知道美国我行我素。


It could undermine the emerging relationship with Cuba; after all, it has yet to repeal the embargo.	国会可能破坏与古巴的新关系； 毕竟，它尚未撤销禁运。


As for the Paris agreement, a federal appeals court will first hear a challenge to the administration’s implementation strategy, the Clean Power Plan, on June 2.	至于巴黎协定，联邦上诉法院将首先在6月2日听取对奥巴马政府的实施战略——清洁电力计划的诘难。


The Republican presidential campaign adds another element of uncertainty.	共和党总统选战带来了另一个不确定元素。


The two leading candidates for the party’s nomination, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, both say that they would tear up the Iran nuclear deal, if elected.	两位领先的党内提名候选人——唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）和泰德·科鲁兹（Ted Cruz）均表示如果当选将撕毁伊朗核协议。


It is worth recalling the outcome of President George W. Bush’s analogous decision to tear up Bill Clinton’s “framework agreement” with North Korea: the Kim regime promptly and predictably developed a nuclear bomb.	有必要回忆一下小布什总统也做出过类似的撕毁克林顿与朝鲜的“框架协议”的决定：金氏政权可以预测地立即开发出核弹。


Whether the US will continue to lead the world remains unclear.	美国是否仍将领导世界仍不清楚。


What is clear is that US politics, not global developments, will be the main determinant.	清楚的是美国政治，而不是全球发展形势，将是主要决定因素。


Obama in Africa	奥巴马在非洲


BERKELEY – On July 10, one very important descendant of black Africa will make a triumphant return to the motherland.	伯克利——7月10日，黑色非洲的一位非常重要的后裔将会荣归故里。


Scholars speak of “the empire striking back,” referring to former colonized peoples, such as immigrants from Africa and India, settling in Europe and North America and then challenging norms of race and identity.	这就是学者们所说的“帝国反击战”，也就是曾经的殖民地民众，比如来自非洲和印度的移民在欧洲和北美站稳脚跟后，对种族和身份的标准发起挑战。


In his first official trip to Africa, US President Barack Obama is striking back in a novel way.	借助首次对非洲的正式访问，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马正在以一种全新的方式发起反击。


His visit to Ghana highlights the desirability of prominent people from the diaspora making a positive contribution to African affairs.	他对加纳的访问凸显出散居海外的杰出人士积极为非洲事务做贡献的愿望。


But Obama’s visit, while heavy on symbolism, reveals the limits of his power.	奥巴马的访问尽管充满了象征意义，但仍然向世人展示他所掌握的权力有限。


Burdened by economic problems in America and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, he can’t act boldly in Africa or make big promises.	在美国经济问题和伊拉克及阿富汗战争的双重重压下，奥巴马无法在非洲大胆作为，也不敢大胆承诺。


Indeed, six months into his presidency, he has already undercut expectations.	事实上，当政六个月后，奥巴马已经调整了自己的目标。


He has approached with great caution the task of settling the region’s violent conflicts – in Darfur, eastern Congo, and Somalia.	他小心翼翼地对待平息达尔富尔、东部刚果和索马里等区域暴力冲突的任务。


He has also kept a safe distance from Africa’s political failures, notably in Zimbabwe, where he has resisted calls to assist in the removal of Robert Mugabe.	他也与非洲的政治失败保持着安全距离，特别是在津巴布韦，他拒绝助一臂之力把罗伯特·穆加贝赶下台。


Obama’s caution is reasonable.	奥巴马的谨慎合情合理。


He doesn’t want to be pigeon-holed, after all, as “the president of Africa.”	毕竟，被冠以“非洲总统”的头衔并非他所愿。


But, in choosing restraint over intervention, he has disappointed ordinary Africans and international activists alike.	但他选择袖手旁观让非洲普通民众和国际激进人士大失所望。


Like his predecessors, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, Obama wants to avoid messy entanglements in Africa’s internal politics.	和前任乔治·W·布什及比尔·克林顿一样，奥巴马想要避开非洲内政事务的漩涡。


Bush did nothing to stop the killings in Darfur or hasten Mugabe’s exit from power.	布什没有采取措施阻止达尔富尔的杀戮，也没有促成穆加贝下台。


Clinton, meanwhile, shamefully abandoned Somalia after the deaths of American soldiers in Mogadishu – and did nothing in the face of Rwanda’s genocide.	而克林顿则在摩加迪沙美军死难事件后可耻地抛弃了索马里——在面对卢旺达的种族屠杀时也束手无策。


For Obama, Africa so far chiefly remains a backdrop against which he defines his American identity.	对奥巴马来说，非洲大陆迄今为止不过是他确认美国身份的背景而已。


As he explained in his memoir Dreams from My Father , visiting his father’s native Kenya for the first time made him feel more American – and less African – than ever.	就像他自己在自传 《父亲的梦想》 中所说的那样，第一次访问父亲的出生地肯尼亚让他比以往更强烈地感受到自己属于美国，而并不属于非洲。


In deciding to visit Ghana, a former British colony and a leading node in the global slave trade of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Obama bypassed the Kenya of his father.	奥巴马决定访问前英国殖民地和十八、十九世纪全球奴隶贸易的重要集散地加纳，而决定避开父亲的祖国肯尼亚。


Kenya is embroiled in bitter tribal disputes, and saddled with a brazenly corrupt government.	肯尼亚被痛苦的种族冲突所困扰，同时还被迫忍受着厚颜无耻的腐败政府。


By contrast, Ghana represents the sunny side Africa.	相反，加纳是非洲阳光面的代表。


The country recently completed a well-run election in which the opposition took power.	这个国家不久前进行了一次秩序井然的选举，反对派在这次选举中脱颖而出。


Its economy is growing.	加纳的经济也在发展。


Ethnic relations in this highly diverse nation are as good as they are anywhere in the world.	这个多民族国家的民族关系和世界任何国家一样好。


Obama will be on African soil for a mere two days, during which time he is expected to emphasize America’s role in promoting good governance and non-violence in Africa – goals long high on America’s public agenda.	奥巴马只在非洲土地上停留两天，并将在此期间强调美国在非洲推广善政和非暴力的角色——上述目标早已高居美国公众议程榜榜首。


Obama’s one new priority – to expand US support for African farmers – reflects a shrewd appreciation of how the expansion of agriculture can quickly lift many rural Africans out of poverty.	奥巴马扩大美国对非洲农民支持的全新优先政策表明美国已机敏地认识到农业领域的拓展能够如何迅速地帮助众多非洲农民脱贫致富。


“The administration plans over a number of years to put a substantial amount of money into agricultural development,” Obama’s choice for Secretary of State for African Affairs, Johnnie Carson, said in advance of the president’s trip.	奥巴马选定负责非洲事务的国务卿约翰尼·卡森在总统访问前说，“政府计划在若干年内投入大笔的资金用于农业发展。 ”


Don’t expect Obama to confront the most controversial aspect of US relations with Africa: the American military’s new African command.	不要期望奥巴马能直面美非关系争议最大的领域：美国军队在非洲新权威的建立。


Bush, who created the command, gave the US Department of Defense new powers to work on civilian issues in Africa and to expand its military partnerships with governments in the region.	建立这种新权威的布什授权美国国防部处理非洲平民事务并与地区政府拓展军事伙伴关系。


Obama isn’t likely to say whether he’ll scale back the US military role in the region, or whether America’s growing reliance on African oil is the real reason – not Obama’s heritage – for wooing Africans.	奥巴马不太可能提及是否有意收缩美军的地区作用，也不太可能提及美国越来越多地依赖非洲石油，而不是奥巴马的血统是否是拉拢非洲人的真正原因。


Obama’s lack of candor won’t hurt him in the US, where domestic political calculations take precedence.	奥巴马的遮遮掩掩不会有损他在美国的形象，因为在那里占据第一位的是对国内政治的考量。


In truth, his visit to Africa is a reward to his stalwart African-American supporters, who voted overwhelmingly for him in the November election and who remain one pillar of his base.	实际上，奥巴马出访非洲是为答谢死心塌地的非洲裔美国支持者，这些人在11月大选中踊跃为他投票，现在也仍然是支撑其政治基础的支柱。


For African-Americans, Ghana has special meaning.	对于非洲裔美国人来说，加纳有着特殊的含义。


The country played an important role in the push for civil rights in America, for instance.	比如，这个国家就在推动美国民权方面发挥了重要作用。


In 1957, when legal segregation seemed entrenched in the US, Ghana’s first president, Kwame Nkrumah, used the occasion of his country’s independence from Britain to highlight the injustices experienced daily by black Americans.	1957年，当种族隔离政策在美国法律中根深蒂固的时候，加纳的第一位总统克瓦米·恩克鲁玛利用本国从英国独立的机缘呼吁人们关注美国黑人每天都在经历的不平等现象。


He invited Martin Luther King, Jr. to his inauguration, giving the Atlanta-based civil rights leader a global platform for the first time.	他邀请小马丁·路德·金参加他的就职典礼，第一次让这位来自亚特兰大的民权运动领袖登上了全球舞台。


Malcolm X, the black nationalist leader, visited Ghana two years later, and again in 1964.	两年后，黑人民族运动领袖马尔科姆·艾克斯访问加纳，此后在1964年又再次出访。


Nkrumah invited W.E.B. Du Bois, the most important black intellectual of the twentieth century, to Ghana in 1961.	恩克鲁玛邀请二十世纪最重要的黑人思想家威廉·爱德华·布格哈特·杜博斯于1961年访问加纳。


Du Bois became a citizen and lived in Ghana until his death.	杜博斯成了加纳公民，至死一直生活在加纳。


Hundreds of African-Americans live year round in Ghana today, some within a short walk of Cape Coast Castle, the slaving fort that shipped human cargo until Britain halted the trade in 1807.	今天有数以百计的非洲裔美国人终年居住在加纳，有些就住在海岸角城堡附近，这座奴隶要塞直到1807年英国下令停止贸易前一直在运送黑奴货物。


Learned and deeply reflective, Obama knows that black Americans will view his visit to Ghana very differently than white Americans will.	学识渊博、深思熟虑的奥巴马知道美国黑人将用完全不同于白人的眼光看待他对加纳的出访。


His tendency to view Africa through an American lens is thus both understandable and inevitable.	因此他透过美国有色眼镜看待非洲可以理解，也顺理成章。


Yet his African roots give him a unique capacity to transform American relations with Africa, elevating the importance of African self-reliance and achievement, while striving to make American aid more intelligent and effective.	但他的非洲根基让他拥有了改变美非关系的独特能力，强调非洲自力更生和自我实现的重要，并同时竭尽全力让美国的援助更加明智有效。


Obama in Cuba	奥巴马在古巴


MEXICO CITY – Barack Obama’s upcoming visit to Cuba is undoubtedly an historic moment, as it will mark the first time in 88 years that a sitting American president has set foot on the island.	墨西哥城—即将到来的奥巴马访问古巴之行毫无疑问是一个历史时刻，它将标志着88年以来首位美国总统踏上古巴的土地。


But superlatives are far less useful than a pragmatic look at the practical implications – for both the United States and Cuba – of Obama’s legacy-enhancing move.	但最高级的字眼远不如务实地看待奥巴马的这一强化后遗症（legacy-enhancing）的动作的实际影响有用——不管是对美国还是对古巴。


In fact, pragmatism is among the main shapers of Obama’s approach to Cuba.	事实上，务实主义是奥巴马的古巴方针的主要特征。


He recognizes the failure of the trade embargo, in place since 1960, to push the country to strengthen human-rights protections, much less to move toward democracy.	他承认从1960年开始实施的贸易禁运并没有让古巴加强人权保护，更没有让它转向民主。


Thus, Obama has pragmatically – perhaps even somewhat cynically – decided to abandon trying to compel Cuba’s leaders to change their political system.	因此，奥巴马务实地——也许还带着一些犬儒主义——决定放弃强迫古巴领导人改变政治制度的努力。


After all, if the US had set a political opening in Cuba, or even a modicum of respect for human rights by the government, as a precondition for normalization of diplomatic relations, the two countries would still be at an impasse.	毕竟，如果美国要求古巴采取政治开放，甚至要求古巴政府略微尊重一些人权，以此作为两国外交关系正常化的前提，那么两国将仍然处于僵局之中。


But while Obama may be burnishing his legacy by pursuing unconditional normalization – so-called “engagement” – what he is not doing is securing any actual change in Cuba.	然而，尽管奥巴马可能是在通过追求无条件正常化——所谓的“立约”（engagement）——留下他自己的光辉遗产，但他并没有保证古巴发生任何实际变化。


“Engagement” is, ultimately, just rhetoric.	说到底，“立约”只不过是一套说辞。


Indeed, if engagement is supposed to result in political change, US engagement with Cuba is most likely doomed to fail; after all, trade and investment have done nothing to bring about a democratic opening in Vietnam over the last 20 years.	事实上，如果立约是为了产生政治变化，那么美国与古巴立约很有可能以失败告终； 毕竟，过去20年来，贸易和投资并没有帮助越南发生民主开放。


Nor have 30 years of massive trade with, and investment in, China brought that country’s leaders any closer to democracy.	30年来与中国的大规模贸易和投资也没有让中国领导人更加靠近民主。


If engagement entails setting aside matters relating to democracy and human rights, at least partly, it is still a sensible policy, if not a very altruistic one.	如果立约意味着（至少部分）搁置民主和人权事务，那么它仍然是一个明智的政策，尽管说不上无私。


In any case, attending a baseball game in Havana in the company of Cuban President Raúl Castro, as Obama is set to do, is not a necessary element of this policy.	无论如何，奥巴马计划于古巴总统劳尔·卡斯特罗一起在哈瓦那观看棒球赛，这并不是这一政策的必要元素。


On the contrary, as the columnist Andrés Oppenheimer has argued, it is a serious mistake, as it amounts to a slap in the face for the victims of the Castro regime’s human-right abuses.	相反，专栏作家安德里斯·奥本海默（Andrés Oppenheimer）指出，这是一个严重的错误，因为这是在打卡斯特罗政权践踏人权的受害者的脸。


Jettisoning the trade embargo, a failed policy, makes sense, but it does not require “playing nice” with a dictator.	放弃作为失败政策的贸易政策是明智的，但这并不需要“示好”独裁者。


One never knows whether other dictators will invoke a regrettable precedent set by an American head of state, particularly one who is highly admired nearly everywhere in the world.	你无法知道其他独裁者是否会援引这个由美国国家元首树立的令人遗憾的先例，特别是几乎在全世界各地都饱受敬仰的美国国家元首。


This is not to say that Obama has forsaken Cuba’s small and beleaguered opposition.	这并不是说奥巴马放弃了古巴人微言轻、饱受压迫的反对派。


Indeed, he is scheduled to meet with Cuban dissidents, much to the displeasure of the Castro regime.	事实上，他计划接见古巴异见者，这将令卡斯特罗政权非常不满。


Moreover, Obama will address questions of democracy and respect for human rights in his live televised address to the Cuban public.	此外，奥巴马将在向古巴公众做的电视演讲中提到民主和尊重人权问题。


The media representatives who will flank Obama during his visit – including, unfortunately, at that ill-advised baseball game – will take up these crucial issues in their reports, even if they are peppered with platitudes about Cuban music and published alongside silly shots of vintage automobiles on Havana’s streets.	访问期间伴随奥巴马左右的媒体代表将在报道中涵盖这些关键事件——不幸的是，也包括糟糕的棒球赛观看计划——即使这些报道将充斥着关于古巴音乐老生常谈，并将与哈瓦那街头寒碜的老爷车一起见诸画面。


While the US cannot – and, it seems, will not – ignore the principles of democracy and human rights in its dealings with Cuba, there is a distinction between democratic norms and economic policies.	美国无法——看起来也不会——在于古巴打交道时忽视民主和人权原则，但民主规范和经济政策之间是有区别的。


In fact, the biggest challenge facing the US as it attempts to normalize ties with Cuba is on the economic front.	事实上，美国尝试与古巴关系正常化时所面临的最大的挑战正是在经济层面。


In the 15 months since ties were reestablished and prospectors headed to the island in search of investment opportunities, little has actually happened, in terms of trade, tourism, and new projects.	美国和古巴重建联系、探险者进入古巴岛寻求投资机会已经15个月，在此期间，不论是贸易、旅游还是新项目都没有什么动静。


Indeed, as the New York Times reports, American and Cuban players have signed only a handful of business deals – a reality that “threatens to sap momentum from the process of building relations.”	事实上，《纽约时报》报道，美国和古巴行动方只签订了少数商业合同——这一现实“可能让构建关系的进程失去动力”。


Part of the problem is the lingering embargo.	问题部分在于漫长的禁运。


While support for lifting it has grown within the Cuban-American community and the US Congress, it is unlikely to happen before Obama leaves office.	尽管在古巴-美国社会和美国国会中取消禁运的支持度有所提高，但在奥巴马离任前无法实现。


Though a number of restrictions on travel and financial transactions have been rescinded, the obstacles in the path of a real change in the island’s economic situation remain formidable.	尽管许多关于旅游和金融交易的限制已经取消，但古巴岛经济状况切实改善之路仍然障碍重重。


Even without the embargo, Cuba would still be held back by its dilapidated infrastructure; strict labor laws; restrictions on foreign-investment; an educated but unskilled workforce, unaccustomed to Western workplace practices; and a lack of contracts and legal instruments to enforce those practices.	即使没有禁运，古巴仍将受困于其破败的基础设施、严格的劳动法、对外国投资的限制、受过教育但技能低下的劳动力、对西方工作场所风格的不适应，以及缺乏推行这些措施的契约和法律工具。


All of this makes it highly unlikely that US engagement will have much of an impact on ordinary Cubans.	所有这些都意味着与美国立约不太可能对普通古巴人的生活产生巨大影响。


For Cuba’s leaders, the absence of concrete economic benefits is a massive disappointment.	对古巴领导人来说，缺少切实的经济利益是一个巨大的失望。


With Venezuela facing economic devastation, owing partly to collapsing oil prices, its people are no longer interested in subsidizing Cuban socialism to the tune of several billion dollars per year; indeed, they have already rejected their own left-wing leadership.	部分拜石油价格暴跌所赐，委内瑞拉正面临着经济灾难，委内瑞拉人民不再愿意每年为古巴社会主义补贴数十亿美元； 事实上，他们正在抵制本国左翼领导层。


Castro saw this shift coming even before the Venezuelans did, and began looking to the US to take up the slack.	卡斯特罗在委内瑞拉情况发生变化之前就已经观察到这一变局，并开始转向美国寻求破局。


But the US hasn’t, and probably won’t, at least not for some time.	但美国不答应，并且也许至少在一段时间内都不会答应。


Without a strong economic impact, America’s opening to Cuba will not make even a small contribution to political liberalization on the island.	没有巨大的经济影响，美国向古巴开放不会对古巴岛的政治自由化产生哪怕微小的影响。


This will not matter much for Obama’s legacy.	对于奥巴马的遗产来说，这不重要。


But it does raise questions about how important an individual leader’s legacy should be in shaping policy toward an endearing but impoverished and still-repressive country.	但这确实引出了一个问题：某位领导人的遗产应该对一个令人喜爱但十分贫穷、并且仍然处于压迫状态的国家的政策产生多么重要的影响。


Obama’s Passage to India	奥巴马的印度之路


CAMBRIDGE – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vigorous foreign policy in the seven months since he took office has surprised observers.	美国剑桥—执政七个月以来，印度总理莫迪大手笔的外交政策令观察者惊讶。


After inviting the leaders of Pakistan and other neighboring countries to his inauguration, he embarked on trips to China, Australia, and the United States.	继邀请巴基斯坦和其他邻国领导人参加就职典礼后，他又访问了中国、澳大利亚和美国。


More recently, he welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin to New Delhi and signed a large number of trade deals and orders to import Russian nuclear reactors.	最近，他又举行欢迎仪式迎接俄罗斯普京到访新德里，并签署了许多进口俄罗斯核反应堆的贸易协议和订单。


India, Modi is telling his fellow citizens, is strong and well regarded around the world.	莫迪在告诉他的国民，印度很强，并且被全世界所重视。


Next month, US President Barack Obama will travel to New Delhi as Modi’s special guest at events commemorating Republic Day, India’s national holiday – just three months after the two leaders held substantive talks in Washington, DC.	下个月，美国总统奥巴马将作为印度国庆日莫迪的特殊客人访问新德里——两位领导人三个月前刚刚在华盛顿举行过重要谈话。


The visit should thus be regarded as a clear signal of Obama’s desire, no less than Modi’s, to strengthen US-India relations.	因此，奥巴马的访问应被视为一个信号，奥巴马对强化美印关系的渴望不逊于莫迪。


So what is likely to be on Obama’s mind when he meets his Indian counterpart again, and what does he think can be done to cement bilateral ties?	那么，当奥巴马再次与印度总理会晤时他会想些什么？ 他认为怎样才能巩固双边关系？


Three issues stand out – beginning with trade, which is as important politically as it is economically.	有三个问题浮现出来——首先是贸易。 贸易问题在政治上与在经济上一样重要。


Obama hopes that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be concluded in 2015 and ratified by the US Senate.	奥巴马希望跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP）能在2015年敲定，并由获得美国参议院通过。


The TPP will not be as powerful a free-trade agreement as originally intended, owing to exclusions and a very long phase-in period.	TPP不会如最初所希望的那样成为强力自由贸易协定，因为它具有排斥性，并且酝酿期过长。


But it will tie the US and 11 other Pacific Rim countries (including Japan but excluding China) together in a new economic bloc.	但它能让美国和其他11个环太平洋国家（包括日本但不包括中国）组成新的经济带。


Obama should be eager to stress that India’s exclusion from the TPP is a matter solely of geography – India does not abut the Pacific – and that the US wants to increase bilateral trade and direct investment by American firms.	奥巴马应该急切地想强调将印度排除在TPP之外完全是因为地理因素——印度不在太平洋沿岸——并且美国希望加强双边贸易和美国企业的直接投资。


The second issue is terrorism.	第二个问题是恐怖主义。


The US authorities are worried that American citizens who have been fighting with the Islamic State and Al Qaeda in the Middle East will return home to commit terrorist acts.	美国当局担心，在中东与伊斯兰国和基地组织并肩斗争的美国公民会回国实施恐怖活动。


India has experienced horrific acts of terrorism on its own territory.	印度在本土经历过可怕的恐怖主义活动。


Continued cooperation between the US and Indian intelligence agencies can help both countries prevent future incidents.	保持美印情报机构的合作有助于两国预防未来事件。


Terrorism includes not just physical violence, but also assaults in cyberspace.	恐怖主义不止包括实体暴力，也包括网络暴力。


China, Russia, and Iran have been the source of frequent cyber attacks on banks, companies, and government agencies; North Korea, the US alleges, was behind the recent breach of Sony Pictures’ computers.	中国、俄罗斯和伊朗是频繁出现的针对银行、公司和政府机构的网络袭击的来源地； 美国还指责朝鲜是最近入侵索尼影业公司电脑的幕后黑手。


Though Obama presented evidence to Chinese President Xi Jinping of technology theft by hackers based in China, the Chinese authorities continue to deny it.	尽管奥巴马向中国国家主席习近平提供了有关中国黑客窃取技术的证据，但中国当局一直否认。


More recently, Russia and others have been planting malware in the control systems of the US power grid and other sensitive networks.	最近，俄罗斯和其他国家一直在向美国电网和其他敏感网络控制系统植入恶意软件。


Looking ahead, the US worries about cyber attacks by non-state actors like the Islamic State and Al Qaeda.	放眼未来，美国担心伊斯兰国和基地组织等非国家行动方的网络袭击。


Although these groups’ members may lack the sophistication to commit such acts, they may try to hire individuals with the necessary skills.	尽管这些组织的成员也许缺少实施这类行为的技术，但它们可以聘请拥有必要技能的人手。


India has a large number of talented computer engineers, including some who might be sympathetic to the Islamist cause.	印度拥有大量有才华的计算机工程师，其中一些可能对伊斯兰教运动持同情态度。


The US and India could both benefit from cooperating to prevent and disrupt such recruitment efforts.	美国和印度都可以从合作阻止和破坏极端组织人手招募活动中获益。


The third issue on Obama’s mind is bound to be China’s asserted goal of dominating Asia and excluding the US from the region.	奥巴马心中的第三个问题必然是中国的目标——主宰亚洲，将美国从该地区排挤出去。


Chinese hegemonic ambition runs counter to India’s strategic interests as well – reason enough for Modi’s eagerness to strengthen his country’s relations with its neighbors as well as with the US.	中国的霸权野心也和印度的战略利益不相符——这已足以让莫迪渴望强化印度与邻国以及美国的关系。


Obama has already made it clear that the US understands that Modi’s willingness to cooperate with Russia, despite Western sanctions imposed on the country, stems from India’s desire to discourage a Sino-Russian alliance against it.	奥巴马已经明确表示美国理解莫迪与俄罗斯合作的意愿——甘冒西方对俄制裁之大不韪——来自印度对遏制中俄联盟的渴望。


Modi won a landslide victory in an election that reflected the Indian public’s disappointment with the policies and performance of the previous government, led by the Indian National Congress.	莫迪在大选中赢得了压倒性胜利，这场选举反映出印度公众对印度当所领导的前任政府的政策和表现的失望之情。


Though India had experienced annual real GDP growth of more than 8% for several years, growth has slowed since 2010, to less than 5% in 2013, owing to a populist shift in policies dictated by Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi.	尽管印度多年来一直保持了8%以上的年实际GDP增长率，但从2010年以来增长有所放缓，到2013年已下降至不足5%，原因就在于国大党领袖索尼娅·甘地政策的民粹化。


By contrast, the Modi government plans to pursue a pro-growth agenda that includes reducing bureaucratic delays, increasing infrastructure investment, stimulating manufacturing activity, and shifting to a simpler unified tax system.	相反，莫迪政府计划追求亲增长日程，包括减��官僚拖延、增加基础设施投资、刺激制造业活动、向统一的简化税收制度转型等。


Modi’s agenda also evidently includes an active foreign policy – as it should.	莫迪日程也的外交政策也相当积极——理应如此。


Cultivating India as a reliable partner in the global economy and in international affairs is a high priority for the US as well.	将印度打造成全球经济和国际事务上的可靠伙伴对美国来说也是当务之急。


Obama’s visit to India can help to realize that relationship’s potential.	奥巴马的印度之旅有助于实现美印关系的潜力。


Immigration and American Power	移民和美国实力


CAMBRIDGE – The United States is a nation of immigrants.	美国剑桥—美国是一个移民国家。


Except for a small number of Native Americans, everyone is originally from somewhere else, and even recent immigrants can rise to top economic and political roles.	除了少部分土著，所有美国人都来自其他地方，即使是新来移民，也可以在美国经济和政治舞台出人头地。


President Franklin Roosevelt once famously addressed the Daughters of the American Revolution – a group that prided itself on the early arrival of its ancestors – as “fellow immigrants.”	富兰克林·罗斯福总统对美国革命女儿会——该团体以祖先最早到达美国为自豪——做过著名评价，称他们是“同伴移民”。


In recent years, however, US politics has had a strong anti-immigration slant, and the issue played an important role in the Republican Party’s presidential nomination battle in 2012.	但是，近几年来，美国政治出现了强烈的反移民倾向，且在2012年共和党总统提名宣战中扮演了重要角色。


But Barack Obama’s re-election demonstrated the electoral power of Latino voters, who rejected Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney by a 3-1 majority, as did Asian-Americans.	奥巴马的连任表明，拉丁裔选民的选票力量十分强大，他们以3比1的绝对多数反对共和党候选人罗姆尼，亚裔也是如此。


As a result, several prominent Republican politicians are now urging their party to reconsider its anti-immigration policies, and plans for immigration reform will be on the agenda at the beginning of Obama’s second term.	结果，一些共和党著名政客敦促该党反思其反移民政策，而奥巴马也计划在第二个任期伊始便将移民改革列入日程。


Successful reform will be an important step in preventing the decline of American power.	成功的改革将是阻止美国实力衰落的重要步骤。


Fears about the impact of immigration on national values and on a coherent sense of American identity are not new.	担心移民会对国民价值观和美国身份的凝聚力形成冲击并不是新鲜事物。


The nineteenth-century “Know Nothing” movement was built on opposition to immigrants, particularly the Irish.	19世纪的“无知”（Know Nothing）运动便是建立在反对移民，特别是爱尔兰移民的基础上的。


Chinese were singled out for exclusion from 1882 onward, and, with the more restrictive Immigration Act of 1924, immigration in general slowed for the next four decades.	1882年以降，中国人成为排斥的对象，最严厉的1924年移民法更是大大减缓了接下去40年的移民潮。


During the twentieth century, the US recorded its highest percentage of foreign-born residents, 14.7%, in 1910.	20世纪是外国出生美国人比例创出新高的世纪。 1910年为14.


A century later, according to the 2010 census, 13% of the American population is foreign born.	7%。 一个世纪以后，据2010年人口普查数据，13%的美国人出生于海外。


But, despite being a nation of immigrants, more Americans are skeptical about immigration than are sympathetic to it.	但是，尽管美国是一个移民国家，但越来越多的美国人开始对移民抱有怀疑而不是同情的态度。


Various opinion polls show either a plurality or a majority favoring less immigration.	众多民调都显示出，多数或大多数人支持更少移民。


The recession exacerbated such views: in 2009, one-half of the US public favored allowing fewer immigrants, up from 39% in 2008.	衰退放大了这一观点：2009年，一半美国公众支持减少移民，而2008年只有39%。


Both the number of immigrants and their origin have caused concerns about immigration’s effects on American culture.	移民数量和移民来源都是担心移民会对美国文化造成影响的原因。


Demographers portray a country in 2050 in which non-Hispanic whites will be only a slim majority.	人口学趋势表明，到2050年，非西班牙裔白人将只占微弱多数。


Hispanics will comprise 25% of the population, with African- and Asian-Americans making up 14% and 8%, respectively.	西班牙裔将占人口的25%，非洲裔和亚裔美国人分别占14%和8%。


But mass communications and market forces produce powerful incentives to master the English language and accept a degree of assimilation.	但大众传播和市场力量所产生的强大激励推动着英语的主导地位，也推动着一定程度的吸收力。


Modern media help new immigrants to learn more about their new country beforehand than immigrants did a century ago.	现代媒���帮助新移民更好地体会新国家，这是一百年前的移民享受不到的。


Indeed, most of the evidence suggests that the latest immigrants are assimilating at least as quickly as their predecessors.	事实上，大多数证据表明，最新的移民的同化速度一点都不亚于他们的先辈。


While too rapid a rate of immigration can cause social problems, over the long term, immigration strengthens US power.	移民太快会造成社会问题，但从长期看，移民增强了美国的实力。


It is estimated that at least 83 countries and territories currently have fertility rates that are below the level needed to keep their population constant.	据估计，至少有83个国家和地区的生育率低于维持人口规模不降的必须生育率。


Whereas most developed countries will experience a shortage of people as the century progresses, America is one of the few that may avoid demographic decline and maintain its share of world population.	随着21世纪的深入，大部分发达国家都将经历人口短缺，但美国是其中少数可能避免人口下降、维持其世界人口比例的国家之一。


For example, to maintain its current population size, Japan would have to accept 350,000 newcomers annually for the next 50 years, which is difficult for a culture that has historically been hostile to immigration.	比如，为了维持现有人口规模，日本必须在未来50年中每年接收35万新国民，这对于这个向来对移民持敌视态度的国家来说十分困难。


In contrast, the Census Bureau projects that the US population will grow by 49% over the next four decades.	相反，美国人口调查局预计，美国人口将在未来四十年中增加49%。


Today, the US is the world’s third most populous country; 50 years from now it is still likely to be third (after only China and India).	如今，美国是世界第三大人口大国； 50年后，大概仍将排名第三（仅次于中国和印度）。


This is highly relevant to economic power: whereas nearly all other developed countries will face a growing burden of providing for the older generation, immigration could help to attenuate the policy problem for the US.	这与经济实力息息相关：几乎所有其他发达国家都将面临日益增加的赡养老龄人口的负担，而移民将有助于解决美国的老龄政策问题。


In addition, though studies suggest that the short-term economic benefits of immigration are relatively small, and that unskilled workers may suffer from competition, skilled immigrants can be important to particular sectors – and to long-term growth.	此外，尽管研究表明短期移民的经济利益相对较小，低技能工人将因竞争而遭受打击，但高技移民对于某些特定部门十分重要，对长期增长也是如此。


There is a strong correlation between the number of visas for skilled applicants and patents filed in the US.	美国专利申请数量和高技能人士签证申请数量呈现强相关。


At the beginning of this century, Chinese- and Indian-born engineers were running one-quarter of Silicon Valley’s technology businesses, which accounted for $17.8 billion in sales; and, in 2005, immigrants had helped to start one-quarter of all US technology start-ups during the previous decade.	21世纪初，中国和印度出生的工程师开创了一半的硅谷技术企业，销售总额达到了178亿美元； 1995—2005年，美国所有新开技术企业中有四分之一来自移民。


Immigrants or children of immigrants founded roughly 40% of the 2010 Fortune 500 companies.	移民及其子辈建立了2010年《财富》500强公司的近四成。


Equally important are immigration’s benefits for America’s soft power.	同样重要的是移民对美国软实力的提升作用。


The fact that people want to come to the US enhances its appeal, and immigrants’ upward mobility is attractive to people in other countries.	人们愿意来美国这一事实增强了美国的吸引力，移民地位的向上跃升吸引了来自其他国家的人。


The US is a magnet, and many people can envisage themselves as Americans, in part because so many successful Americans look like them.	美国是一块磁石，许多人可以自认为美国人，部分是因为太多的成功美国人看起来和他们很像。


Moreover, connections between immigrants and their families and friends back home help to convey accurate and positive information about the US.	此外，移民及其家庭与祖国朋友之间的联系也有助于传递关于美国的真实的积极信息。


Likewise, because the presence of many cultures creates avenues of connection with other countries, it helps to broaden Americans’ attitudes and views of the world in an era of globalization.	类似地，多种文化并存形成了与其他国家沟通的桥梁，这有助于拓宽全球化时代美国人的视野和世界观。


Rather than diluting hard and soft power, immigration enhances both.	移民增强，而不是妨碍了硬实力和软实力。


Singapore’s former leader, Lee Kwan Yew, an astute observer of both the US and China, argues that China will not surpass the US as the leading power of the twenty-first century, precisely because the US attracts the best and brightest from the rest of the world and melds them into a diverse culture of creativity.	新加坡国父李光耀深谙中美两国，他认为中国不可能超越美国成为21世纪最强国，其原因正是美国吸引着全世界最优秀、最聪明的人，并将他们融入多元的创造力文化中。


China has a larger population to recruit from domestically, but, in Lee’s view, its Sino-centric culture will make it less creative than the US.	中国人口更多，更适于内部挖潜，但是，在李光耀看来，中国中心论将导致其创造力不如美国。


That is a view that Americans should take to heart.	美国应该时刻铭记这一评价。


If Obama succeeds in enacting immigration reform in his second term, he will have gone a long way toward fulfilling his promise to maintain the strength of the US.	如果奥巴马在第二个任期中成功地推行移民改革，那么他将在兑现维持美国优势的承诺之路上迈进一大步。


Obamanomics: Year One and Beyond	奥巴马经济学：执政第一年的盘点与展望


BERKELEY – President Barack Obama has not had an easy first year economically.	伯克利 —— 美国总统贝拉克·奥巴马执政满一年了，这是经济上很困难的一年。


He inherited a financial system on the verge of collapse. He was bequeathed an economy in recession and an unemployment rate destined to rise.	他的前任留下一个烂摊子 —— 金融体系濒临崩溃，国民经济陷入衰退，失业率攀升已成定局。


And he faced a Congress and an economics profession with a tendency to confuse these real demons with imaginary ones.	而且，他所要面对的那个国会和经济学界似乎分不清，什么是真正的魔鬼，什么是想象的灾难。


His strength has been not to allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good.	奥巴马的强项是该妥协时就妥协，见好就收。


His $787 billion fiscal stimulus was good.	他的 7870 亿美元财政刺激方案整体上说是好的。


To be sure, it was based on unrealistically optimistic assumptions about the depth of the recession, the strength of the recovery, and the level at which unemployment would peak.	它固然也有种种缺陷，比如对衰退的深度、复苏的力度和失业率所可能达到的水平估计得过于乐观；


It was too heavily tilted toward tax cuts that would tend to boost saving rather than consumption.	比如过于依赖减税，结果是促进储蓄大于促进消费；


And, unaccompanied by a credible medium-term fiscal strategy, it unnecessarily excited the apostles of fiscal doom.	再比如没有配合出台可靠的中期财政策略，毫无必要地让财政崩溃论的鼓吹者着实兴奋了一番。


But, having said all that, the stimulus package gave the economy a necessary shot in the arm.	尽管如此，这一揽子刺激方案的确给美国经济打了一针救命的强心针。


I would have preferred bigger capital injections. I would have liked to see his administration use its leverage to replace the management responsible for creating the financial mess in the first place.	奥巴马稳定银行体系的措施也还算成功，尽管它留下了许多遗憾：我原本希望，资本注入的力度能够更大一些，总统能够运用权力，炒掉那些应该为金融危机的爆发负首要责任的金融高管。


But the stress tests and targeted TARP money, the path of least resistance taken, enabled the banks to earn their way back to solvency.	但是压力测试和问题资产剥离计划（ TARP ）这两个异议最少的措施，的确使银行利润回升，从资不抵债的状态起死回生。


However distasteful the uses to which those earnings have been put, they at least prevented the financial system from falling off a cliff.	不论那些利润的去向多么令人愤慨，它至少从悬崖边上挽救了整个金融体系。


Finally, Obama’s Quaker-meeting approach to legislating health-care reform has produced, of all things, health-care reform.	最后，奥巴马以各抒己见、寻求共识的方式，实实在在地推动了医疗体系改革。


For the end of the story we will have to wait and see what emerges from the House-Senate reconciliation process.	虽然最终结果还要看参众两院的妥协，但肯定不会允许保险公司以现状为由逃避承保责任。


But it will certainly prevent the insurance companies from denying coverage on grounds of preexisting conditions.	现有方案引入了个人委托机制，从而可以避免逆向选择导致整体医疗服务质量下降的现象。


It will address adverse selection by including an individual mandate.	它还补贴穷人支付保费。


And it will subsidize insurance coverage for the poor. While it will presumably lack the public option many of us prefer, this is still a real achievement.	虽然它可能放弃了不少人支持的公立保险补充制度，但这份改革方案仍是一个了不起的成就。


The same middle-of-the-road approach can be taken in the second year to address the still-outstanding fiscal issues.	这种选择中间道路的方式，同样可用来在执政第二年解决突出的财政问题。


Obama can use his State of the Union message to flesh out a bipartisan strategy for narrowing the budget deficit to sustainable levels.	奥巴马可以在国情咨文中勾勒一个超越党派立场的战略方案，指明如何把财政赤字缩小到安全水平。


This would entail reinstating pay-as-you-go rules and establishing an independent commission to submit to Congress amendment-proof (and filibuster-proof) recommendations for tax and expenditure reform.	这个方案可以明确表态要恢复所得税预扣法，并建立一个独立的委员会，负责向国会就税收和支出改革提出建议，而不必受到修正和阻挠。


But Obama needs to provide stronger leadership on financial reform, where, as with health care, there is a welter of conflicting proposals.	然而，在金融改革方面，奥巴马还需要表现出更强的领导力，因为在这个问题上，也存在一大堆互相冲突的提议。


There are two reasons to doubt that the light-touch approach used in the case of health care is appropriate to reforming financial regulation.	这时，那种无为而治的办法就不灵了，理由有两点。


First, unlike health care, where we can afford to proceed incrementally, the need for comprehensive financial reform is pressing.	第一，医疗改革可以渐进，而金融大改革是火烧眉毛的事情。


If health-insurance exchanges don’t work, we can always reconsider the public option.	如果医疗保险交易所制度行不通，我们再来重新考虑公立保险补充制度也不迟。


But if the initial approach to financial reform doesn’t work, we face the prospect of another financial crisis every bit as serious as the last.	但如果金融改革走错一步，我们将面临一场新的金融危机，跟刚刚过去的那场危机同样严重。


Second, health care had effective proponents – in Congress, among consumers, and even among some of its providers.	第二，公众具有足够的知识和能力来推动医疗改革，国会议员、消费者甚至医疗卫生机构都不乏这样的人士。


Medium-term fiscal reform, for its part, will be pushed by bond-market vigilantes.	中期财政改革也会受到所谓“债券市场义勇军”的推动。


But financial reform is too technical for non-specialists.	而金融改革过于专业，一般人难以理解。


And the specialists, the financiers themselves, prefer a status quo that rewards them lavishly.	而大多数专业���士，也就是金融家们，肯定更喜欢维持现状，这样对他们自己有利。


This is one area where Obama’s consensual instincts do not serve him well.	在金融改革这个领域，奥巴马身上那种寻求共识的天性没有用武之地。


He needs to use his bully pulpit.	他必须拿出一点总统的霸气来。


He needs to mobilize the general interest effectively.	他必须充分动员公众的利益关切来推进此事。


Finally, in his second year, Obama must, as he put it last summer in a speech to the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), “aim higher.”	最后，在其任期的第二年，奥巴马必须“设定更高的目标” —— 如同他去年夏天在全美有色人种协进会（ NAACP ）的一次演讲中所言。


He was elected not simply because he is a cool crisis manager, but because he had a vision for a more economically just society.	人们选他当总统，并不仅仅因为他善于应对危机，而是因为他心中有个大愿景，要建立一个经济上更公平的社会。


Now that the time for crisis management is, one hopes, over, he needs to flesh out and implement that vision.	现在，危机管理的阶段也许已经过去了，到了把那个愿景描绘和实施出来的时候了。


The time for any old kind of public spending simply to support aggregate demand, if not already over, soon will be.	按照老派的做法，扩大公共开支以扩张总需求的阶段，即使还未过去，也快走到头了。


The need then will be for more spending on education and training – the only thing that in the long run will make American workers more productive and reduce income inequality.	现在需要考虑扩大教育和培训方面的支出了，毕竟从长期来看，那才是提高美国劳动生产率和缩小收入差距的根本办法。


Similarly, the United States needs more productivity-enhancing infrastructure – roads, bridges, and ports – and not frills such as high-speed trains between Sacramento and San Diego.	还有，美国也需要投入更多资金在那些有利于提高生产率的基础设施上头，比如道路、桥梁和港口，而不是投入那些华而不实的项目，比如萨克拉门托和圣迭戈之间的告诉铁路。


Only measures like these can create the good jobs that will reduce income inequality and make America again resemble a normal advanced economy, not one where inequality approaches Latin American levels.	只有上述那些措施，才能创造优质的就业岗位，缩小收入差距，使美国回到发达经济体的正轨上来，而不是坐视贫富差距扩大，走上拉美化道路。


But more spending on these items will require less spending on other things – or higher taxes.	不过，这些方面支出扩大，势必造成其他方面支出受限或税赋增加。


America’s consensus-oriented president needs to make that case.	喜欢寻求共识的奥巴马总统，必须有决心作出取舍。


The Problem with Politicians as Historians	作为历史学家的政客的问题


STANFORD – “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” quipped Mark Twain.	斯坦福—“历史不会重复自己，但会押韵，”马克·吐温如是说。


For generations, political leaders have been lending credence to that observation, as they have attempted to shape their legacies, taking credit for what worked and blaming predecessors or political opponents for what failed.	一代又一代政治领袖都在印证这一观察的正确性，他们试图留下自己的烙印，将成就归功于自己，将失败归咎于前任或政治对手。


Many politicians continue to spin the facts even after they have left office.	许多政客在隐退后仍然继续扭曲着事实。


British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once boasted that, “History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it.”	英国首相丘吉尔曾经夸耀说：“历史将待我不薄，因为我要撰写历史。


And, indeed, his multi-volume opus on World War II contains not only many of his most memorable lines (“their finest hour,” “so much owed by so many to so few”); it is also packed with justifications for his actions during the war.	”而事实上，他的多卷本二战著作内容全部是他最值得铭记的事件（“光荣时刻”，“从未有如此之少的人，在如此之短的时间内,为如此之多的人，作出如此之大的牺牲”）； 此外还充斥着对他在战时行为合理性的论证。


Churchill’s writings may be biased, but they offer remarkable inside information and details that are not readily inferred from memos and briefs, which usually are incomplete and guarded in style.	丘吉尔的写作也许有失偏颇，但它们提供了可观的内幕信息和细节，这些信息和细节往往无法从不完整和谨小慎微的备忘和摘要中窥斑见豹。


As historians know, there is great pressure to remember the past as the victors want it remembered.	历史学家知道，如胜利者所想要的铭记的那样铭记历史，这是一种很大的压力。


As Napoleon Bonaparte once put it, “History is a set of lies agreed upon.”	拿破仑·波拿巴曾说：“历史是一系列约定俗成的谎言。 ”


Today, it is US President Barack Obama’s turn to attempt to define his legacy, as his presidency winds down and attention turns to the election of his successor.	如今，轮到美国总统奥巴马试图留下自己的烙印，他的总统任期即将落幕，人们的关注焦点转向了其继任者的选举。


And he has already been busy.	他已经忙坏了。


During Obama’s recent visit to Japan for the G7 summit, for example, he became the first sitting US president to visit Hiroshima, devastated in 1945 by the nuclear attack ordered by President Harry S. Truman to avoid a ground invasion and hasten the end of World War II.	比如，在最近赴日出席G7峰会期间，他成为首位访问广岛的美国总统。 1945年，杜鲁门总统为了避免派遣地面部队和加快二战结束而下令对广岛进行核打击。


Obama has also been touting his economic accomplishments, claiming he prevented another Great Depression.	奥巴马也一直在兜售他的经济成就，宣称他阻止了又一场大萧条。


He has said that his Recovery Act stopped the unemployment rate from soaring to 30% – five points higher than what it was at the peak of the Great Depression.	他说他的复苏法（Recovery Act）阻止了失业率朝30%迈进——比大萧条顶峰时期还要高五个百分点。


That is a priori nonsense.	这是先验性的胡言乱语。


Obama’s own advisers have estimated that his stimulus package prevented a rise in unemployment of one percentage point at peak unemployment, not the 20-percentage-point increase the president seems to be claiming.	奥巴马本人的幕僚估算他的刺激计划阻止了峰值失业率上升一个百分点，而不是总统所吹嘘的20个百分点的上升。


Obama is not the first political leader to engage in hyperbole, but even by the standards of the Internet age, that one is a whopper.	奥巴马绝非第一位自我夸张的政治领袖，但即使以互联网时代的标准衡量，他也显得过于浮夸了。


He has also frequently claimed that all economists agree that his policies worked.	他还频繁宣称所有经济学家都认为他的政策起了作用。


The truth is that while some agree with his advisers’ assessments, others believe the stimulus had little or even a negative effect.	真相是尽管有一些经济学家同意他的幕僚的评估，但也有一些人认为刺激基本无效甚至适得其反。


It is interesting that Obama feels the need, as his days count down, to glorify his actions.	有意思的是，随着总统生涯时日无多，奥巴马感到有必要为他的行为贴金。


And it will be even more interesting to see how he uses his intelligence, eloquence, and experience after his retirement.	而更有意思的是他在退休后如何利用他的智慧、口才和经验。


The two presidents with whom I worked most closely, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, mostly let others do the talking and writing.	我曾经密切共事过的两位总统，里根和老布什，大多让其他人代劳讲话和撰写工作。


Both seemed comfortable with what they had accomplished and what they had to leave undone; and both grew in stature and popularity with time.	他们似乎都对取得的成就和不得不留给继任者完成的事项感到满意； 他们的地位和声望都与日俱增。


Instant evaluations of political leaders are usually modified, often considerably, by subsequent generations.	对政治领袖的即时评价常常会被子孙后代大幅修改。


Historians and journalists have touted few presidents’ accomplishments more than those of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.	成就最受历史学家和记者吹捧的总统莫过于富兰克林·罗斯福。


I consider FDR the greatest president of the twentieth century because of his leadership during WWII.	我认为，凭借他在二战中的领导力，罗斯福是二十世纪最伟大的总统。


But most economists now reject the early claims that his New Deal ended the Great Depression.	但如今大部分经济学家都认为他的新政结束了大萧条这一早期论断是不正确的。


Indeed, in 1938, unemployment remained at more than 17%.	事实上，1938年失业率仍然高达17%以上。


FDR’s close friend, Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr., worried that “after eight years…we [will] have just as much unemployment as when we started…and an enormous debt, to boot.”	罗斯福的密友、财政部长小亨利·摩根索（Henry Morgenthau Jr. ）写道，“八年后……我们的失业与开始是一样高……此外还背上了巨额债务。


Some economists believe that FDR’s programs, by propping up prices and wages, were counterproductive, preventing markets from clearing and rebounding.	”一些经济学家认为，罗斯福的计划推高了物价和工资，因而不利于生产，阻碍了市场出清和反弹。


Most economic historians now believe that it was only the massive mobilization of WWII that ended the depression.	如今，大部分经济史家认为二战全民动员才是结束大萧条的原因。


In contrast to FDR, Truman was initially considered a mediocre president, a haberdasher from Missouri who just happened to be the vice president who succeeded FDR after his death.	与罗斯福相反，杜鲁门一开始被认为是一位平庸的总统，这位密苏里州男装店主只不过恰好在罗斯福逝世时身为副总统，于是得以继任总统。


Truman almost lost the 1948 election to the Republican Thomas Dewey.	在1948年的总统选举中，杜鲁门险些输给共和党的托马斯·杜威（Thomas Dewey）。


In 1953, when he was succeeded by Dwight Eisenhower, few would have predicted that he would later be included among the ranks of the near-great presidents.	1953年，当艾森豪威尔接过他的总统之位时，几乎没有人预测到有朝一日他能跻身准伟大总统行列。


And yet it was Truman who ended WWII and oversaw creation of the postwar global security and economic architecture: the Marshall Plan, NATO, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank.	但结束二战、建立战后全球安全和经济结构的是杜鲁门：马歇尔计划、北约、关贸总协定、国际货币基金组织、世界银行皆在他的治理下出炉。


And it was his policies that allowed war-devastated societies to rebuild and made strong allies of defeated Germany and Japan, in contrast to the havoc perpetrated at the end of World War I by the Treaty of Versailles.	让饱受战争摧残的社会重建、让战败的德国和日本成为强大的盟友从而避免一战结束后凡尔赛和约所带来的浩劫的也是杜鲁门的政策。


Moreover, it was under Truman that the first great step in America’s civil-rights revolution, the desegregation of the army, took place.	此外，美国民权革命的第一大步——取消军中种族隔离也发生在杜鲁门时期。


Legend has it that shortly after President Richard Nixon re-established relations with China, Premier Zhou Enlai, asked what he thought of the French Revolution, replied, “It’s too early to say.”	有一个传说，尼克松总统恢复对华关系后不久，中国总理周恩来被问及如何看待法国大革命。 周恩来说：“言之尚早。


Similarly, it is likely too early for a fair assessment of leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron.	”类似地，公允平价德国总理默克尔和英国首相卡梅伦等领导人目前也有可能言之尚早。


While both have had promising tenures, each has been confronted by a major, if not quite existential, challenge: immigration from the Middle East for Merkel and the relationship with Europe for Cameron.	两人的任期都大有可为，都面临重大的、堪称生死攸关的挑战：默克尔是中东移民，卡梅伦是对欧关系。


Sometimes there is a clear connection between a leader’s policies and the condition of a country during his or her tenure.	有时候，领导人的政策与其任期内国家的情况之间存在明确的联系。


I will not disagree with a historian who determines that Venezuela was eviscerated by President Hugo Chávez’s populist socialism and economic illiteracy.	如果有历史学家断言委内瑞拉是被其总统查韦斯的民粹社会主义和经济不学无术搞垮的，我是不会反对的。


But, in the case of other important leaders – China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Argentina’s Mauricio Macri, Mexico’s Enrique Peña Nieto – it is still early days.	但是，对于其他重要领导人——中国的习近平、印度的莫迪、阿根廷的马克里、墨西哥的涅托——目前仍然言之尚早。


They will preside over many more challenges, and they will be judged by what they bequeath to their successors (and how their successors deal with it).	他们还将面临许多挑战，他们的评价将根据他们给继任者留下什么（以及他们的继任者如何应对）做出。


History is fickle that way; the historians who write it are more fickle still.	历史就是如此反覆； 撰写历史的历史学家更加反覆。


Obama’s Asian Vision	奥巴马的亚洲观


NEW YORK – Now that Barack Obama has made history by being elected President of the United States, people throughout the Asia-Pacific region fervently hope he will focus on Asia in a way that he did not during the election season.	纽约--如今，奥巴马当选美国总统创造了历史。 整个亚太地区的人民都热切希望他将会与竞选时不同地关注亚洲。


In the past few months, every time I visited an Asian country – whether South Korea or India, China or Japan – I was asked repeatedly about candidate Obama’s positions on three issues: trade, foreign policy, and the new geo-economic order.	在过去几个月时间里每次我访问亚洲国家，无论是南韩或是印度，中国或是日本，人们总是不断地问我候选人奥巴马在贸易、外交以及新型地缘经济秩序等三个问题上的立场。


We all now hope that President-elect Obama will provide the answers, not only in words, but also in actions.	我们现在都希望当选总统奥巴马将会不仅在言辞上、而且在行动上提供答案。


Policy wonks and interested Asians alike often say that when Republicans are in power in America, Asians breathe a confident sigh of relief.	政策分析人士以及对此关注的亚洲人士经常说，当美国共和党在美国执政，亚洲就可以喘一口气。


Their assumption is that Republicans will back free trade and oppose protectionism.	他们的假设是共和党将会支持自由贸易和反对保护主义。


This time around, they have not heard much from the President-elect, who is a Democrat, on trade with Asia, and what they have heard about his position on the North American Free Trade Agreement – an alleged desire to rewrite that trade pact unilaterally – does not inspire confidence.	这一次，他们还没有从当选总统、一位民主党人那里听到很多有关与亚洲贸易的谈话。 而且，他们所听到的其有关北美自由贸易协定的立场、也就是单方面修改这一贸易协定并不激发信心。


At the same time, countries like India feel that the US, along with Europe, have been on both sides of “free” and “fair” trade – but always from a narrow nationalistic perspective.	与此同时，像印度这样的国家感到，美国和欧洲一道站在“自由”和“公平”贸易的一边，但总是从狭隘的民族主义观点来看待问题。


If the US is serious about “fair” trade, they say, the new administration will need, for example, to deal with the unfairness of agricultural subsidies, which led to the collapse of the Doha round of World Trade Organization talks.	他们说，如果美国认真对待“公平”贸易，那么，一个例子就是美国新政府将会处理农业补贴的不公。 农业补贴导致世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判破裂。


Most importantly, a trade policy must be articulated that is both free and fair (not only for US workers, but also for Asian workers), and that reassures Asians that Obama will be aware of their needs.	最为重要的是，贸易政策必须既要自由，还要公平(不仅对美国工人公平，还要对亚洲工人公平)，同时还要让亚洲放心，奥巴马了解他们的需要。


While the US economy falls into a deep recession, the economies of large Asian countries like China and India will continue to grow at an annual rate of 7% to 9%.	在美国经济落入严重衰退之际，中印等亚洲大国的经济将会继续每年增长7%到9%。


They will remain an important source of import demand, especially for high technology and industrial goods.	它们将会继续是重要的进口需求来源，特别是对于高科技和工业产品而言。


This could be a great boon to the US economy.	这对美国经济而言将会是一个喜讯。


Asian leaders have often complained that at a time when Asia became increasingly interconnected and China began to enlarge its sphere of influence, America was largely absent in the region.	亚洲领导人经常抱怨说，当亚洲越发相互依存、中国开始扩大其势力范围之际，美国基本上在该地区不见踪迹。


Indeed, for the past seven years America’s foreign policy seems to have been conducted entirely through the prism of the “war on terror” and the Iraq war.	确实，在过去七年时间里，美国的外交政策似乎完全通过“反恐战争”和伊拉克战争的视角来实行的。


While there were some singular bilateral accomplishments, such as the adoption of the US-India civil nuclear energy deal, the US has been perceived to be less effective in dealing with the region’s burgeoning multilateral frameworks.	尽管存在某些特别的双边成就，但是人们认为美国在处理该地区蓬勃发展的多变框架上并不如此有效。


Now, fully aware of Obama’s claims for a presidency that will be about the future, Asians are eager to hear about his vision of the Asia-Pacific region and how the US will deal with Asia’s giants – China and India – while maintaining strong connections to Japan.	现在亚洲完全清楚奥巴马总统面向未来，因此就急迫地想要听取其有关亚太地区的构想以及美国如何处理亚洲巨人中国和印度，同时维持与日本的强大联系。


The need for Obama to address the region’s new realities early in his tenure has been underlined by the current financial crisis, which has made abundantly clear that the center of global economic power has shifted toward the East.	当前的金融危机突出了这一需要，也就是奥巴马应该在其任期内尽早处理该地区的新现实。 这一金融危机十分清除地表明全球经济实力已经移向东方。


It is also clear that the West’s future role will depend on how America manages this new distribution of power.	还有一点也是清除的，那就是西方未来作用将会取决于美国如何处理这一新的势力分配。


British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has begun to talk about a Bretton Woods II that would give a bigger voice to Asia in the world’s great multilateral financial and economic institutions, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy has asked that China help the West during these difficult times.	英国首相布朗已经开始谈论新的布雷顿森林体系。 这一体系将会在世界重要多变金融和经济机制中赋予亚洲更大的发言权。


And, while scholars have begun to talk about building an Asia-Pacific community that can match the Atlantic community’s extensive network of relationships, there has been no clear signal from the US government about America’s role in this transformation.	但是，尽管学者们已经开始谈论建立与跨大西洋共同体严密关系网络媲美的亚太共同体，但是美国政府还没有明确表明其在这一转型中的作用。


So Asians are keen to hear Obama’s thoughts about a new or renewed international system, and hope that his vision of a new global order will incorporate the rising countries of Asia as America’s partners.	所以亚洲急切想要听取奥巴马有关新型国际体系的构想，并且希望其新的全球秩序构想将会包含亚洲正在崛起国家作为美国的伙伴。


I was in Korea last week, and several of my friends and colleagues, some in prominent public positions, were thrilled at the prospect of the new US president.	上周我在韩国。 我的几个朋友和同事(有些人位居公职高位) 都对美国新总统前景表示激动。


They marveled at the fact that America’s democracy can actually make it possible for a youngish African-American to become the leader of the free world.	美国民主真的可以让一个年轻的非裔成为自由世界领袖，他们对此惊叹不已。


Now, this rising region is desperate to hear Obama’s thoughts about America’s role in Asia, thoughts that are commensurate with Asia’s importance – and with the scope of his vision.	现在，这一崛起地区急切地想要听取美国在亚洲作用的想法。 这些想法与亚洲的重要性及其构想范围是一致的。


Obama in Arabia	奥巴马在阿拉伯


PRINCETON – US President Barack Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week, to attend the summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council, comes at a time when relations between the two countries have rarely been worse.	普林斯顿——美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马本周出访沙特阿拉伯参加海湾合作委员会首脑会议是在两国关系极为罕见的糟糕时刻。


And yet, however negatively most Americans view Saudi Arabia, the country remains an important regional ally.	但无论多数美国人对沙特阿拉伯的看法如何负面，该国依然是美国重要的地区盟国。


Obama would be wise to mend the bilateral relationship.	修补双边关系对奥巴马而言将是明智之举。


Saudi Arabia, the source of one in nine barrels of oil consumed globally, is not just a linchpin of the global economy; its government’s stability is crucial to the international order.	全球每消费九桶石油中就有一桶产自沙特阿拉伯，该国不仅在全球经济中非常关键； 其政府稳定对国际秩序而言同样是不可或缺的。


Should the Al Saud dynasty fall and the country splinter into rival territories ruled by jihadi factions and tribes, the civil wars in Syria and Libya will seem like minor conflicts in comparison.	如果沙特王朝垮台且国家分裂成由圣战派别和部落所统治的敌对领土，叙利亚和利比亚的内战相比之下将会成为次要冲突。


The collapse of the Saudi state would quickly spill over into neighboring Gulf countries, triggering a regional implosion, with unthinkable humanitarian consequences.	沙特国家崩溃将迅速蔓延到邻近的海湾国家，引发地区内爆，造成无法想象的人道主义后果。


The US would not be able to avoid being dragged militarily into the region, if only to safeguard the supplies of oil and gas on which the global economy depends.	哪怕仅仅是为了保护全球经济所依赖的石油和天然气资源供给，在那样的情况下，美国也无法避免在军事上被最终拖入。


A major cause of the deterioration of the US-Saudi relationship is Obama’s decision to diminish America’s direct involvement in the Middle East.	美国与沙特关系恶化的主要原因是奥巴马决定削减美国在中东的直接介入。


In a long interview with the journalist Jeffrey Goldberg, Obama expressed his desire for Saudi Arabia to “share” the region with Iran, its principal regional rival.	在与记者杰弗里·戈德堡长时间的采访过程中，奥巴马表达了希望沙特与地区主要对手伊朗“共享”该地区的愿望。


Obama expended an enormous amount of time and political capital to obtain a nuclear deal with Iran.	奥巴马耗费了大量的时间和政治资本与伊朗签订核协议。


He hopes that lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran’s promise to halt its nuclear program for about 15 years will lead Iran to change its behavior, become a more responsible state actor, and abandon its revolutionary agenda and frequent use of non-state actors (including terrorist groups) to advance its goals.	他希望用解除制裁换取伊朗承诺停止核计划15年能够引导伊朗改变行为模式，成为更负责任的国家行为体，并放弃国内革命性议程以及频繁使用非国家行为体（包括恐怖组织）来实现其目标的惯例。


If Iran does as Obama hopes, the US will be able to reduce its military presence in the Gulf.	如果伊朗果如奥巴马希望的那般行事，那么美国将能够削减海湾地区的军事实力。


And if Iran’s leaders stop promoting terror, another important foreign policy achievement will be added to Obama’s legacy.	而如果伊朗领导人停止鼓吹恐怖主义，奥巴马的遗产列表中将加入另一项重要的外交成绩。


Unfortunately for Obama – and for the Middle East – his strategy is failing.	不幸的是，奥巴马的中东策略正在走向失利。


As America’s shadow has receded, Saudi Arabia and Iran have become more aggressive, even irresponsible, in pursuing their interests.	随着美国阴影逐渐退去，沙特和伊朗变得更加积极、甚至不负责任地追求自身的利益。


Iran remains the principal backer of both Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Shia-led government in Baghdad, making it a leading contributor to the humanitarian tragedy in both countries, where Sunni Arabs comprise the majority of the victims of violence.	伊朗至今仍是叙利亚总统阿萨德和巴格达什叶派领导政府的主要支持者，对两国发生的人道主义悲剧负主要责任，而逊尼派阿拉伯人则成了暴力活动最主要的受害群体。


Saudi Arabia’s behavior has changed even more dramatically in response to its perceived abandonment by the US.	在感觉被美国抛弃后沙特阿拉伯的行为变化甚至进一步加剧。


The Kingdom’s leadership has become convinced that the Obama administration no longer has its back, calling into question a decades-old relationship in which America guaranteed Saudi Arabia’s security in exchange for economic and political support.	王国领导人已经确信奥巴马政府不再给予其支持，从而导致长达数十年的美国保障沙特安全以换取经济和政治支持的旧有关系陷入质疑。


Americans in Riyadh are repeatedly asked whether Obama’s approach represents an exception or a permanent feature of US policy toward the Gulf.	驻利亚德的美国人被反复问及奥巴马的做法仅仅是个例外还是代表美国在海湾地区的永久性政策。


Obama’s policy has led the Kingdom to break with its long tradition of quiet diplomacy and behind-the-scenes maneuvers.	奥巴马的政策导致沙特王国打破其长期以来的静默外交及幕后操纵惯例。


Instead, Saudi Arabia has become aggressive and militaristic.	相反，沙特阿拉伯现在变得颇具侵略性且军国主义。


It has severed diplomatic relations with Iran, withdrawn financial support from Lebanon, and carried out an inconclusive but devastating war in Yemen against what it sees as Iranian proxies.	它已经断绝了与伊朗的外交关系、撤出了对黎巴嫩的资金支持并在也门发动了一场针对它所认为伊朗代理人的毁灭性但却没有结果的战役。


Most recently, the Saudis threatened to sell off its US financial assets should Congress enact a proposed law exposing its leadership to lawsuits for the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.	最近，沙特人威胁如果美国国会通过拟议法案追究其领导人在2001年911恐怖袭击事件中可能的责任它将对在美国的金融资产进行抛售。


Repairing the relationship will not be easy.	修复关系绝非轻而易举。