It is less important, for instance, to steal a copy of North Korea’s bomb designs than to know the morale and capability of its scientists.	譬如，了解北韩科学家的想法和能力要比偷盗某一特定的炸弹设计重要得多。


It is important to know how much deprivation in a country would swing public opinion.	关键是要了解什么样的权利剥夺会引起公众的争议。


Like most social science, measurement of these dynamics is conducted indirectly.	和多数社会科学一样，对这种变量的测量是间接进行的。


Intelligence analysts operate like scientists, in the sense that they develop theories, then measure and test them.	情报分析人员与科学家非常相似，他们先提出理论，再设法进行测试和验证。


Like scientists, they prefer to work with huge amounts of data, which is why the US government wants a record of every call and financial transaction made by every inhabitant of the country.	与科学家一样，他们喜欢搜集海量数据，也正因为此，美国政府才希望得到每位公民的每个电话和每笔交易记录。


Tracking the movement of individuals by the locator in their cell phones is possible, and it is surely under consideration.	用手机定位装置跟踪个人活动不仅是可行的，而且已被正式纳入考虑。


That is because intelligence agents look for indicators, correlations, and causes. Causes are the hardest to understand.	这是因为情报人员需要现象、相关性和原因，而其中原因是最难理解的。


For example, the civil services in Iraq have recently crossed a threshold beyond which they are now probably impossible to administer.	譬如，伊拉克行政人员刚刚跨过一道门槛，如今很可能再也无法控制。


A significant reason is believed to be the steady flight of intellectuals from Iraq, which seems obvious, but is difficult to measure.	据信一个重要的原因是知识分子一直在逃离伊拉克，这一事实似乎显而易见，但又很难予以度量。


Indicators and correlations are easier to demonstrate.	证实现象和相关性的存在轻而易举。


If a lot of people are leaving their seats during a sporting event, you might consider it an indication that the event is not exciting.	如果体育比赛时有很多人纷纷离场，你很可能会想到这场比赛不太激动人心。


During the Cold War, Western intelligence agencies developed an immense catalogue of indicators and correlations.	冷战时，西方情报人员编制了非常复杂的现象和相关性手册。


If train traffic on certain routes increased, it suggested that army food supplies were being delivered, thus hinting at impending military action.	某条线路上列车流量增加表明正在运送军需供给，进而暗示着军事行动即将到来。


Likewise, shipments of toilet paper are amazingly accurate indicators of military activity.	与此相似，大量运输手纸在预测军事行动方面也非常准确。


Once the Soviets realized this, they began to send bogus shipments around the country on random schedules, creating shortages for the baffled civilian population.	而苏联人意识到这一点以后，开始不定期地在全国范围内运输虚假物资，这使得本已处境困顿的平民百姓陷入了更为严重的物资短缺。


As it turns out, another extremely useful view into a society is the type of pornography it consumes, together with how that pornography is manufactured and delivered.	研究社会的色情消费、调查色情产品的生产和运输可以为了解这个社会提供非常有价值的参考线索，这是一条客观规律。


Yes, it is true. Spies are interested in prurient behavior everywhere.	正因如此，世界各地的间谍都对色情行为抱有非常浓厚的兴趣。


One reason is that pornography in orthodox societies is illicit, so the distribution channels opened by sexual materials are usually used for other goods as well.	因为从事色情业在东正教社会中是违反法律的，因此性产品开辟的流通渠道也经常用于其他产品的销售。


In the Muslim world, there is a significant, important flow of pornography.	在穆斯林世界，色情产品的销售数量非常可观。


According to one story, possibly apocryphal, in the 1970’s, the Islamic insurgency in Iran was initially planned using material delivered through porn-related channels because the mosques were so tightly controlled.	有未经证实的消息说，因为清真寺管理严格，20世纪70年代伊朗爆发的伊斯兰革命起初就是靠色情渠道传递的材料展开策划的。


But there are other trends indicated by pornographic content that are useful to spies.	但色情内容背后的潮流对间谍来讲用处更大。


Movies produced for the sexual gratification of consumers reveal cultural norms of restriction, transgression, and otherness.	为满足观看者性欲而摄制的电影充分揭示了文化领域禁忌、越轨和差异的标准。


In fact, porn is so specifically tuned to the tastes of consumers that shifts can indicate changes in a society almost immediately.	事实上，色情产品完全迎合消费者的欣赏口味，因此色情产品的变化几乎可以在第一时间反映出社会的变化。


Interestingly, many purveyors of pornography initially thought that better quality video would make their product more desirable.	有趣的是，很多色情产品的供应者起初认为提高影像质量会使产品更受欢迎。


However, it seems that high production values were actually less popular.	但事实是市场的接受度似乎与产品价值成反比关系。


So a “casual” production style was adopted, similar to the design of worn and ripped jeans.	与破旧的牛仔裤相似，人们普遍认可“随意”的制作风格。


Part of the raw appeal of pornography, it seems, is that the product itself be raw, and conspicuously illicit.	似乎色情产品的原始吸引部分来自于产品自身制作的粗糙简陋，以及在法律中被明文禁止所带来的偷食禁果的刺激。


But local tastes nonetheless vary widely.	但不同地区的口味差别甚大。


Japanese porn features schoolgirls, often bound.	被捆绑的女学生往往是日本色情电影中的主角。


Egyptian porn before Nasser featured local beauties and voyeurism, but now focuses on fair-haired and pale-skinned women, sometimes with forced sex as a theme.	而在纳塞尔当政之前，埃及的色情电影常常被当地美女和窥淫癖者所占据，但现在那里的色情产品却更加关注肤色雪白的金发女郎，有时也以强迫性行为为主题。


Egyptian-born Sheik Hilaly, in Sydney, may have been verbalizing a latent sense of otherness and mistaking it for insight.	生于埃及、现居悉尼的谢赫·希拉里（Sheik Hilaly）有可能只是描述了自己潜意识中的差别意识，并错误地把这种意识当成了洞察力。


This means that tinkering with the content of porn could be in the national interest, under certain circumstances.	这意味着在特定的情况下，关注色情产品符合国家的利益。


Anyone privy to details of such activities cannot comment on them, but one story circulating in the research community involved attempts to introduce condoms into African porn as part of an anti-AIDS effort.	任何关注这种行为的人都不会加以评论，但研究机构的说法涉及在非洲色情业引入避孕套，以制止艾滋病进一步蔓延。


Then, of course, there is the biggest market of all: the US, where it is estimated that annual revenue for pornography in 2004 exceeded the combined revenue of the ABC, CBS, and NBC television networks by many billions of dollars.	当然，这里不能不提到全球色情业的最大市场：美国。 据估算，2004年美国色情产品年收入比ABC、CBS和NBC三家电视网的收入总和还要高成百上千亿美元。


We should not be surprised if someone eventually tries to tweak the content of pornography to exploit Americans’ cultural proclivities on behalf of other products, causes, or even political candidates.	如果有一天终于有人试图代表其他产品、事业甚至是政治候选人来调整色情产品的内容以期利用美国的文化取向，我们丝毫也不该感到惊奇。


Squaring Asia’s Nuclear Triangle	尚缺一角的亚洲四方核机制


TOKYO – Just before the fourth trilateral summit between Japan, China, and South Korea began on May 21, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, and Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan jointly visited the areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake, offering encouragement to the disaster’s victims living in evacuation centers.	发自东京——就在第四次日本、中国、韩国领导人会议开幕前的5月21日，中国国家总理温家宝，韩国总统李明博和日本首相菅直人一同前往东日本特大地震受灾地区，对住在避难中心的受灾民众进行慰问。


Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in March, Kan has aimed at lifting the bans that many countries have imposed on imports of Japanese agricultural products, and so offered the two heads of state cherries from Fukushima in a bid to highlight their safety.	自从福岛第一核电站发生核泄漏事故以来，首相菅直人一直忙于说服各国解除对日本农产品的进口禁令，还请中韩两国元首品尝产自福岛地区的樱桃以展示这些农产品的安全性。


At the summit, the three countries issued a joint statement outlining cooperation on a wide range of issues, including nuclear safety, disaster prevention, economic growth, and the environment.	三国在会后共同发表了一份会议宣言，提出将在包括核安全、灾害防御，经济发展和环境保护在内的广泛事务上进行合作。


The lessons learned from Japan’s earthquake and nuclear accident would be shared with China, South Korea, and the wider international community, and, in an addendum, the Japanese authorities promised to “continue to provide information…with the greatest transparency possible.”	而日本在本次地震及核事故中所总结的经验教训也会与中韩两国以及全世界分享，此外日本政府还承诺将“继续提供具有最高透明度的信息”。


In fact, the Kan administration – which loathes the involvement of bureaucrats, who are professionals, in managing public affairs – delayed notifying neighboring countries when it was forced to order the release of water containing low concentrations of radioactive material.	事实上在被迫下令向海中排放低浓度放射性污水之时，正是这个痛恨专业公共事务官僚的菅直人政府贻误了知会各国政府的时机。


For Kan, the real priority was his government’s effort to maintain its grip on power, not reassuring Japan’s neighbors of the actions it was taking to contain a potential threat to their citizens.	对菅直人来说，首要的考虑依然是如何继续把持政权，而不是在一手操纵了这场可能对各国人民造成潜在威胁的行为后尽力恢复各国对日本的信任。


The codicil to the summit communiqué was created to address these concerns. It emphasized the importance of sharing information about nuclear safety, and incorporated specific measures, including the creation of a framework for rapid notification in the event of an emergency and exchanges of experts to assist in managing future nuclear crises and ensuring that regional concerns are taken into account.	会议宣言的附文专门针对这些问题进行了解答，文中强调了分享核安全信息以及实施特定合作手段的重要性，包括设立紧急情况知会机制，实施专家交流以协助应对未来核危机并确保本区域所关注的各项事务都能得到妥善处理。


Ever since the Fukushima accident, opposition to nuclear power has been growing in China and South Korea, both of which had been planning a massive expansion of their nuclear generating capacity – and both of which face a change of political leadership next year.	在福岛危机爆发之后，中韩两国内部的反核电呼声也随之不断高涨，而两国原本都计划大举扩张其核发电能力，并将在明年面临政府领导人换届选举。


China’s succession, though set, will nonetheless bring a period of uncertainty, while South Korea will undoubtedly face its usual no-holds-barred democratic battle in its coming presidential election.	中国的接班人虽已确定，但新领导层的上台依然会带来一系列不确定性，而韩国的总统大选则一如既往地爆发一场民主乱战。


Given these political realities, keeping ordinary citizens content about civilian nuclear power has become a greater priority than usual in both countries.	考虑到这样的政治现实，促使两国普通民众对民用核电重拾信心的要求就显得比其他时期更为迫切了。


This confluence of political need has created an opportunity for all three countries to cooperate more closely in the management of civilian nuclear power, and this opportunity should not be missed.	上述政治需要所形成的合力为三国创造了一个在管理民用核能方面实现更紧密合作的，不容错过的良机。


Sensing this, China and South Korea have provided humanitarian and economic aid to areas affected by the earthquake, and both countries were quick to send specialized teams to Japan to search for the missing.	有见及此，中韩两国都向地震灾区提供了人道主义和经济援助，并迅速派出专业队伍赶赴灾区参与搜救行动。


The first country to send a rescue team to Japan, however, was Taiwan (which also was the largest single provider of donations, amounting to ¥20 billion).	但第一个向日本派出搜救队的却是台湾（同时也是最大的捐赠物资来源地，折算金额达200亿日元）。


But, owing to what Kan’s government called “confusion on the ground,” Taiwan’s rescue team was kept waiting for days.	但在菅直人政府所谓的“现场混乱”情况下，台湾搜救队被迫原地待命几天后才得以开赴现场。


And, while the people of Japan were grateful for Taiwan’s unexpected generosity, the Japanese government failed to offer any thanks, despite running advertisements in major newspapers expressing gratitude for the relief sent from other countries. (Eventually, a public campaign raised the money to run an advertisement in a Taiwanese newspaper.)	而当日本民众对台湾的慷慨深表感谢时，日本政府却没有表达任何谢意，在各大主要报章上刊登的感谢状上也没有提及台湾的名字（最终依靠民间组织筹款才得以在一份台湾报章上刊登了感谢状）。


Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou was as surprised as the Japanese by the size of the contributions made by his people.	对于台湾民众对日本所给予的巨额援助，台湾领导人马英九和日本民众一样感到吃惊不已。


Ma had been tilting his government’s policies increasingly toward China, concluding a bilateral framework agreement on economic cooperation. But, in the wake of Taiwanese society’s outpouring of sympathy for Japan, he has adjusted his stance.	虽然马英九政府的政策正不断向中国大陆靠拢并向着构建双边经济合作框架的目标迈进，但台湾社会对日本所表现出的同情却令他调整了自己的立场。


The Ma government has also been kept on its toes by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party’s call for the phase-out of nuclear power in Taiwan by 2025.	而与此同时，马英九政府也正疲于应付在野民进党要求在2025年全面淘汰核电的呼声。


Taiwan has three nuclear power plants, and, like the plant at Fukushima, they directly face the ocean.	台湾目前拥有三座核电站，且都与福岛核电站一样濒海而建。


Two are located within 20 kilometers of the capital, Taipei, and it is generally agreed that there would be no escape for the vast majority of the capital’s citizens should a major nuclear accident occur.	其中两座更位于台北市周边20公里以内，公众普遍认为一旦这些核电站发生大型事故，台北市大多数居民都将在劫难逃。


Construction of a fourth nuclear power plant, which began in 1999, was suspended by DPP President Chen Shui-bian the following year.	规划的第四座核电站于1999年开工，却在次年被民进党籍“总统”陈水扁叫停。


Although Chen’s government, under pressure from the opposition Kuomintang, later restarted work on the plant, design revisions have repeatedly delayed its completion.	虽然随后在国民党的压力下核电站重新开工建设，按不断出现的设计更改却使竣工日期一再延误。


Opposition from local residents remains stiff.	而当地民众的抵抗一直以来都相当顽强。


At their recent trilateral summit, Japan, China, and South Korea skillfully evaded direct mention of the delicately poised security issues that they face. And, while they did bring nuclear safety to the fore and agreed to cooperate and share information with each other, efforts to meet this region-wide challenge cannot succeed without bringing Taiwan into the discussions.	在本次领导人会议上，日中韩三国都巧妙地回避了当前所面对的微妙安全问题，而当他们确实将核安全放在首位并同意合作和互相分享相关信息时，采取将台湾排除在会谈之外的做法显然是无法成功应对这一区域性挑战的。


Taiwan should also be allowed to participate in the International Atomic Energy Agency in the area of nuclear safety, just as it became an observer at the World Health Organization during the SARS and avian flu pandemics of the 1990’s.	台湾也应当被允许在核安全方面参与国际原子能组织的活动，正如在1990年代SARS和禽流感肆虐期间被接纳成为世界卫生组织观察员那样。


Where nuclear safety is concerned, China must rethink its policy of isolating Taiwan from international bodies.	可见在关系到核安全问题时，中国必须重新检讨其将台湾隔离于国际组织之外的孤立政策。


Sri Lanka’s Rebirth	斯里兰卡的重生


COLOMBO – Sri Lanka has been deservedly praised for the progress it has made since the end of the war against the separatist Tamil Tigers in 2009.	发自科伦坡——在与泰米尔猛虎组织的战争于2009年终结后，斯里兰卡所取得的进步获得了外界实至名归的好评。


The economy has grown at an average annual rate of 6.7%, and education and health statistics are impressive.	经济的年平均增长率达到了6. 7%，在教育和卫生方面的统计数字也令人刮目相看。


All developing countries face myriad challenges, but this is especially the case for a country that has suffered an intense 30-year civil war.	所有发展中国家都面临着种种挑战，但这却是一个遭受了30年惨烈内战的国家。


The government will need to set priorities; but success will require a comprehensive approach.	虽然政府事务总有轻重缓急； 而实现成功则需要一个综合性的手段。


Underlying wars such as the fight with the Tamil Tigers are, typically, social and economic grievances such as real or perceived discrimination, and the failure of government to address wealth and income disparities adequately.	一般来说，爆发泰米尔猛虎组织这类冲突都是源自于社会和经济上的不满情绪，比如实际存在或感觉到的歧视，以及政府在充分解决财富和收入差距方面的无能。


Thus, more than transitional justice is required in Sri Lanka (or, to take another example, in Colombia, where peace with the FARC guerillas seems increasingly likely).	因此斯里兰卡（或是可能与哥伦比亚革命武装力量游击队达成和平协议的哥伦比亚）需要的可不仅仅是转型正义（transitional justice）。


What is required is full integration of the Tamils, Sri Lanka’s embittered minority, into the country’s economic life.	现在需要的是将泰米尔人这个斯里兰卡的贫苦少数族裔全面整合入该国的经济生活之中。


Markets on their own won’t solve this problem.	市场自身并不会解决这一问题。


Sri Lanka will need balanced affirmative-action programs that address the various dimensions of economic disparity and are attuned to the inequalities within the Tamil population.	斯里兰卡将需要一系列平衡的平权行动方案，以解决各个方面的经济不平等以及调和泰米尔人内部的不平等。


It will do no good to give a leg up to Sri Lanka’s many rich Tamils, while leaving poor, lower-caste Tamils further behind.	不应该去扶助那些本已富有的泰米尔人，却把剩下那些贫穷的低种姓泰米尔人丢在一边。


Economic integration of the northern Tamil region will require heavy public investment in infrastructure, education, technology, and much else.	北部泰米尔地区的经济一体化将需要在基础设施，教育，科技以及其他许多方面投入大量公共投资。


Indeed, such investments are needed for the entire country.	事实上整个国家都急需这类投资。


And yet tax revenue as a share of GDP is only 11.6%, about one-third that of Brazil.	但该国税收收入占GDP的比重仅为11. 6％，只相当于巴西的1/3。


Like many other developing countries, Sri Lanka simply enjoyed the fruits of high commodity prices in recent years (tea and rubber account for 22% of exports).	跟其他许多发展中国家一样，斯里兰卡享受了商品价格高涨的成果（茶叶和橡胶占其出口额的22％），也本该利用这波繁荣来实现出口门类的多样化；


Sri Lanka should have used the commodity boom to diversify its export base; the previous government of Mahinda Rajapaksa did not.	但马欣达·拉贾帕克萨（Mahinda Rajapaksa）领导的上届政府却并未这样做。


With export prices down, and with tourism likely to suffer from the global economic downturn, a balance-of-payments crisis looms.	随着出口产品价格的下降以及旅游业受全球经济衰退影响，一场国际收支平衡危机正在隐现。


Some suggest that Sri Lanka turn to the International Monetary Fund, promising belt tightening.	一些人认为斯里兰卡应求助于国际货币基金组织，承诺会勒紧裤带过日子。


That would be hugely unpopular.	而这将是非常不受欢迎的。


Too many countries have lost their economic sovereignty in IMF programs.	很多国家已经在基金组织的方案下丧失了自身的经济主权。


Besides, the IMF would almost surely tell Sri Lankan officials not that they’re spending too much, but that they’re taxing too little.	此外，前者几乎肯定会告诉斯里兰卡官员说问题并不是他们支出太多，而是征税太少了。


Fortunately, there are many taxes that the authorities can impose that would increase efficiency, growth, and equity.	幸运的是，当局可以征收众多税项以提高效率，增长和公平。


Sri Lanka has abundant sunshine and wind; a carbon tax would raise considerable revenue, increase aggregate demand, move the country toward a green economy, and improve the balance of payments.	斯里兰卡有充足的阳光和风力； 碳税将提供可观的收入，增加总需求，推动该国向绿色经济迈进并改善国际收支的平衡。


A progressive property tax would encourage more resources to go into productive investments, while reducing inequality and, again, boosting revenues substantially.	累进制的物业税将鼓励更多的资源进行生产性投资，同时减少不平等现象，并再次大幅提高政府收入。


A tax on luxury goods, most of which are imported, would serve similar goals.	其中大部分都是进口的奢侈品征税也能实现类似的目标。


Some in the country, citing inadequate inflows of foreign direct investment (despite marked improvement in the business climate), argue for lower corporate taxes.	一些斯里兰卡人发现外国直接投资（尽管在商业环境显着改善）的资金流入不足，并因此主张降低企业税。


But such tax concessions are relatively ineffective in bringing in the kind of long-term investment that Sri Lanka needs; so to embrace them would needlessly eviscerate the already weak tax base.	但这类税收优惠并不利于斯里兰卡所需的长期投资;一旦实施将会毫无必要地削弱本已脆弱的税基。


Likewise, another frequently proposed strategy, public-private partnerships, may not be as beneficial as advertised.	同样，另一个经常被提到的战略则是公私伙伴关系，但这可能也不会像标榜的那样有益。


Such partnerships usually entail the government bearing the risk, while the private sector takes the profits.	这种伙伴关系往往导致政府承担了风险，而利润却被私营部门分走了。


Typically, the implicit cost of capital obtained in this way is very high.	通常情况下，通过这种方式所获得的资金其实有着非常高的隐性成本。


And while the private sector can, and frequently does, renege on its contractual obligations (through bankruptcy) – or force a renegotiation under the threat of reneging – the government cannot, especially when an international investment agreement is in place.	虽然私营部门能够（而且经常）违背其合同义务（通过破产）——或用违约的威胁来要求重新谈判——政府却不能这样做，尤其是在签订了当国际投资协议的情况下。


Twenty-first century development strategies need to be different.	21世纪的发展战略应当有所不同。


They should be based on learning – learning to produce, learning to export, and learning to learn.	这些战略应该构建于学习之上——学习如何生产，如何出口，并学会学习。


There can be leapfrogging: in Sri Lanka’s case, the benefits (apart from direct employment) to be gained from certain low-skilled manufacturing stages like garments may be limited.	跨越式发展也是可行的：在斯里兰卡的情况下，（除直接就业外）从如服装等某些低技术制造阶段所获得的收益相当有限。


Given its education levels, Sri Lanka may be able to move directly into more technologically advanced sectors, high-productivity organic farming, and higher-end tourism.	而鉴于其教育水平，斯里兰卡可以直接进入技术更先进的行业，高生产率的有机农业和高端旅游业。


But if Sri Lanka pursues such activities, it will need to ensure good environmental policies for the entire island.	但是，如果斯里兰卡希望走这条路的话，它需要在全岛实施良好的环境政策，这就需要完善的城市规划。


That will necessitate sound urban planning.	斯里兰卡很幸运地暂时拥有较低的城市化水平；


Sri Lanka is fortunate to have a low level of urbanization today; but this is likely to change in the next two decades.	但这一情况很可能在未来二十年内发生转变。


This gives the country the opportunity to create model cities, based on the adequate provision of public services and sound public transport and attuned to the cost of carbon and climate change.	这使该国有机会在充分提供公共服务，良好公共交通以及考虑碳和气候变化成本的情况下建设现代城市。


Sri Lanka, beautiful and ideally located in the Indian Ocean, is in a position to become an economic hub for the entire region – a financial center and a safe haven for investment in a geopolitically turbulent part of the world.	斯里兰卡，美丽且坐落于印度洋上的绝佳位置，将有能力成为整个区域的经济枢纽——在这个饱受地缘政治动荡影响地区的金融中心和安全投资避风港。


But this won’t happen by relying excessively on markets or underinvesting in public goods.	但如果过分依赖于市场或投资不足的公共物品的话，这一切都不会发生。


Fortunately, with peace and the emergence of representative political institutions, Sri Lanka today has a better opportunity than ever to make the right choices.	幸运的是，随着和平的到来与代表制政治体制的出现，今天的斯里兰卡拥有比以往更好的机会来做出正确的选择。


Winning Sri Lanka’s Peace	赢取斯里兰卡的和平


COLOMBO – Winning a war or revolution, only to lose the subsequent peace, is one of the grim political truths of our time.	科伦坡——赢得一场战争或革命，却失去了之后的和平，是我们这个时代严峻的政治现实。


In Iraq, a quick military victory over Saddam Hussein’s regime soon gave way to insurgency, civil war, and the rise of the murderous Islamic State.	在伊拉克，针对萨达姆·侯赛因政权的快速军事胜利很快就让位给叛乱、内战和残忍的伊斯兰国崛起。


In Libya, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere, the hopes unleashed by the Arab Spring have similarly turned into an often-violent despair.	在利比亚、叙利亚、也门和其他国家，阿拉伯之春所带来的希望也同样被充满血腥的绝望所代替。


Today, a half-decade after the end of its 36-year civil war, Sri Lanka is at a crucial moment in its own efforts to consolidate peace and secure its long-term benefits.	今天，在长达36年的内战结束5年后，斯里兰卡正处在巩固和平及确保长期收益的关键时期。


Newly elected President Maithripala Sirisena and I, as prime minister, are determined to win that peace, and to help our country become what it always should have been: a prosperous Asian island of democracy, civility, and open society.	新任总统迈特里帕拉·西里塞纳和担任总理的我都对和平志在必得，我们一定要让国家成为梦想中的样子：繁荣的亚洲岛国，民主、文明的开放社会。


The risks of a failed peace are appearing only now, because, since 2009, when the war with the Tamil Tigers ended in an enormous spasm of violence, the government led by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa made only the most half-hearted of efforts to bring about reconciliation with our Tamil citizens.	和平失败的风险现在出现，是因为2009年与泰米尔猛虎组织的战争以极端暴力方式结束后，由前总统马欣达·拉贾帕克萨领导的政府在与泰米尔民众和解方面仅仅做出了最缺乏热情的努力。


Reconstruction of war-ravaged Tamil districts, as well as other parts of our society damaged by years of fighting and terrorism, has barely begun.	对饱受战争蹂躏的泰米尔地区及惨遭战争和恐怖主义破坏的其他地区的重建才刚刚开始。


That neglect was part of a deliberate strategy by Rajapaksa, who saw keeping Sri Lanka on a semi-war footing, and our Tamil citizens aggrieved and alienated, as the most effective way to maintain his iron-fisted rule.	如此这般的视而不见是拉贾帕克萨有意为之，他认为维持斯里兰卡的半战争状态及泰米尔民众的不满和疏离是捍卫其铁腕统治最有效的方式。


But, though his divide and rule strategy worked for a while, allowing him to concentrate an unprecedented amount of power in his own hands, it could not hide the truth of our social divisions and continuing impoverishment.	不过，虽然他分而治之的策略在一段时间内发挥了作用，使得他手中聚集了前所未有的权力，但社会分裂和长期贫困的真相却无法掩饰。


So, in the presidential election of this past January, Sirisena stunned the world by creating a winning coalition of Sri Lankans of all faiths and ethnicities who want to rebuild their democracy, not continue down the path of authoritarian rule.	因此，在今年一月的总统大选中，西里塞纳创建想重建民主、而非继续专制统治的所有信仰及民族的斯里兰卡人获胜联盟的想法震惊了世界。


In the months since Sirisena’s triumph, Sri Lankan democracy has been revived, and the hard work of building a durable domestic peace has begun.	西里塞纳获胜后这几个月，斯里兰卡的民主制度已经恢复，建设持久国内和平的工作也已经开始。


We plan to quickly call a Parliamentary election, which will take place one year ahead of schedule, in order to replace Rajapaksa’s echo chamber with a fully functioning assembly, one that holds the government to account.	我们计划迅速召集议会选举，这将比原计划中提前一年，以便用一届正常议会替代拉贾帕克萨的影子议会对政府进行监督。


Moreover, presidential power is now exercised within the limits established by law, not according to the whims of one man.	此外，总统权力现在必须在法律规定的限度内行使，而不是仅凭某人一时的兴致。


Our judges no longer feel intimidated.	我们的法官不必再感到害怕。


Our business leaders no longer fear shakedowns and takeovers by the president’s greedy family members and cronies.	我们的企业领袖也不必再担心贪婪的总统家人和亲信发起的勒索和收购。


As we liberate all of our citizens from fear, we will rebuild Sri Lanka as a free society.	当我们从恐惧中解放所有的民众，就能够重建斯里兰卡的自由社会。


The authoritarian model of capitalism that Rajapaksa introduced to our country, and that much of the world seems to be embracing nowadays, is not for us.	拉贾帕克萨引入国内的资本主义专制模式虽然似乎在当前大行其道，但却与斯里兰卡的期望不符。


Of course, some of our neighbors are advising us to take a different path, to reform our economy and not worry too much about re-establishing political freedom.	当然，某些邻国建议我们走上一条不同的道路，即关注经济改革而不必过于担心重建政治自由。


Our experience with authoritarian rule, however, is that it undermines the goal of post-conflict reconciliation and reconstruction by its need to maintain our society’s divisions artificially.	但独裁统治的亲身经历告诉我们独裁者想要通过人为维持社会分裂来破坏冲突后的和解及重建目标。


The best way to avoid a relapse into conflict and arbitrary rule is to ensure that Sri Lanka’s leaders are held accountable through representative institutions.	避免再次陷入冲突和专制统治的最好方法是确保斯里兰卡领袖通过代表制度对民众负责。


But we cannot fully turn the page on authoritarian rule, restore the full range of democratic freedoms, and rebuild our economy in an inclusive way on our own.	但我们无法凭借一己之力结束专制统治、恢复全方位民主自由并以惠及所有人的方式重建经济。


Too much of our country’s wealth has been damaged by war, taken flight abroad, or been siphoned off through corruption.	我们有太多的国家资产已经被战争破坏、偷运出境，或者被腐败抽走。


We simply lack the resources to undertake the great task of reconstruction without assistance.	我们根本无法仅靠一己之力完成重建的伟大任务。


So we need the world’s democracies to stand with us and support us, lest our people become discouraged and be tempted by the autocratic forces waiting in the wings to return to power in the coming parliamentary election.	因此我们需要全世界民主国家与我们站在一起支持我们，以免我们的民众灰心失望或专制势力伺机而动，在即将举行的议会选举中夺回权力。


We need to demonstrate to our people that reconciliation, democracy, tolerance, and the rule of law constitute the only route to long-term peace and shared prosperity.	我们需要向民众证明和解、民主、宽容和法治才是通往长期和平与共同繁荣的唯一道路。


Sadly, the help that we have received so far is too little to enable my government to be as effective as it can and should be in rebuilding our country and resetting our strategic position in the world.	可悲的是，迄今为止我们得到的帮助少之又少，致使政府无法有效完成重建国家及其全球战略地位的任务。


Still, there is reason for hope.	但希望并没有就此破灭。


Though our political institutions need a thorough overhaul, I am proud to say that, despite Rajapaksa’s best efforts to corrupt and hollow them out, our victory was made possible because the election commission and court workers adhered to the law.	虽然政治体制需要改革，但我依然可以自豪地说尽管拉贾帕克萨尽一切努力腐蚀及掏空政治制度，但选举委员会和法院人员依法办事仍使我们的获胜成为可能。


Equally important, when the votes were counted, Sri Lanka’s military leaders honored their oaths and bravely rebuffed Rajapaksa’s unconstitutional order to annul the election and maintain him in power.	同样重要的是在清点选票时，斯里兰卡军方领导人履行了自己的誓言，勇敢回绝了拉贾帕克萨废除选举结果、继续掌权的违宪命令。


These acts of civic heroism form a strong basis on which to refound Sri Lanka’s state and society.	这样的民间英雄主义行为为重建斯里兰卡国家和社会奠定了坚实的基础。


With the world’s help, we will do just that.	我们将在世界各国的帮助下完成这项任务。


Stabilizing the Stans	稳定诸“斯坦”


WASHINGTON, DC – Recent violence in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, following civil strife in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, has intensified international concern about Central Asia’s security as the region becomes increasingly important for delivering NATO supplies to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.	华盛顿—继2010年哈萨克斯坦内乱后，最近的哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦暴力事件加剧了国际社会对中亚安全的忧虑。 作为北约向阿富汗国际维和部队（ISAF）补给线，该地区的重要性正变得越来越显著。


Central Asian countries allow NATO members and partners to transport supplies through their territory to support military forces in Afghanistan – an essential complement to the flow of supplies to the ISAF through Pakistan, which is vulnerable to tensions with the United States.	中亚国家允许北约成员国和伙伴国借道向阿富汗运输补给，这是ISAF除巴基斯坦之外的有一条关键补给线，而巴基斯坦与美国的关系日渐紧张，通过它运输补给已不再安全。


These countries have been logical partners for NATO in Afghanistan.	中亚国家是北约在阿富汗的天然伙伴国。


They share Western concerns about a revival of the Afghan Taliban and their potential support for extremist Islamist movements in other Central Asian countries.	与西方一样，它们也担心阿富汗塔利班及其支持的极端主义伊斯兰运动在其他中亚国家死灰复燃。


Indeed, all five of the post-Soviet Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – have been targeted by Muslim extremist organizations linked to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.	事实上，五个前五连中亚国家——哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦——都是与塔利班和基地组织有涉的穆斯林极端主义组织的目标。


Moreover, Central Asian leaders are eager to maintain NATO’s presence in Eurasia as a way to balance China and Russia.	此外，中亚领导人热切地希望将北约的身影留在欧亚大陆，以平衡中国和俄罗斯。


Although the region’s leaders generally enjoy good relations with both countries, they fear that Russian military and Chinese economic dominance could lead to the rise a Sino-Russian condominium at their expense.	尽管中亚国家大体上与中俄关系良好，但也忌惮俄国的军事力量和中国的经济力量，担心形成牺牲它们利益的中俄主导权。


All Central Asian countries suffer from pervasive corruption, acute income inequalities, political succession problems, and transnational criminal groups that cooperate more effectively than the region’s frequently feuding governments do.	所有中亚国家均存在腐败横行、严重的收入不平等和权力继承等问题，而比起该地区争吵不休的政府，跨国犯罪集团的合作要紧密得多。


Deteriorating public services contributed to the overthrow of Kyrgyzstan’s government, and could lead alienated citizens to support Islamist terrorists and other extremists.	公共服务的不足导致了哈萨克斯坦政府的倒台，也可能让被孤立的公民转而支持伊斯兰恐怖主义者和其他极端主义者。


Although Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian countries have resumed rapid economic growth, much of their recent progress simply correlates with surging world oil and gas prices.	尽管哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和其他中亚国家经济增长迅速，但最近取得的进步无非是借了国际石油和天然气价格飙升的东风。


Growth could easily slow following the next energy-price slump or other external shock, such as proposals in Russia to limit employment and remittance opportunities for Central Asian workers there.	若发生能源价格再次下跌和其他外部冲击（比如俄罗斯限制中亚工人的就业和外汇汇款），经济增长很有可能会减速。


All five countries have yet to fully recover from the disintegration of Soviet infrastructure networks, and require urgent domestic and region-wide measures to strengthen their education, transportation, energy provision, health care, and other public services.	中亚五国均还没有从苏联基础设施网的崩溃中完全恢复，迫切需要国内和地区手段改善教育、运输、能源供应、卫生和其他公共服务。


And their myriad interdependencies increase the risks of transnational threats, such as disease outbreaks, and resource-related confrontations.	它们彼此之间有着错综复杂的相互依赖关系，这增加了跨国威胁的风险，比如传染病暴发和争夺资源的冲突。


Social disorder in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and other Arab countries has invariably led observers to regard Central Asia’s autocracies as potentially vulnerable to similar upheaval.	突尼斯、埃及、利比亚和其他阿拉伯国家的社会失序无不让观察家们认为中亚独裁者难逃相同的命运。


Some Central Asian leaders have been in power for many years, and only Kyrgyzstan, the most impoverished of the five, has developed a competitive multi-party political system.	某些中亚领导人掌权已经多年，只有其中最穷的吉尔吉斯斯坦建立了竞争性的多党制。


Elsewhere, political parties are weak or are tools of the regime.	在其他四国，政党要么力量十分薄弱，要么沦为了当局的工具。


But other factors make the Arab scenario less plausible in Central Asia. Security forces are more closely aligned with ruling elites; independent political groups and social-media networks are less well developed; economic performance remains high in some countries; and a previous wave of revolutions produced disappointing results in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.	但其他因素使得中亚不太可能发生与阿拉伯世界相同的事情。 在中亚，安全力量与执政精英关系更密切；


Ensuring long-term stability will require poverty reduction, job creation, reduced income inequality, and the development of these countries’ human resources.	要确保长期稳定，就需要减少贫困、创造就业岗位、降低收入不平等性、充分开发这些国家的人力资源。


Private-sector activity will not expand without healthy national banks subject to rigorous financial discipline and greater supervisory autonomy.	没有受严厉财务纪律和上级监管部门约束的健康国民银行体系，私人部门活动就得不到扩张。


Governments, facing pressure to increase spending, need to develop targeted social safety nets that protect their poorest people through cash or near-cash transfers.	面临增加支出压力的政府需要发展定向社会安全网，通过现金或准现金转移支付保护最贫困人口的利益。


The International Monetary Fund recommends additional reforms aimed at improving labor-market flexibility, strengthening national competitiveness through investment in transportation and telecommunications infrastructure, and diversification away from natural-resource exports.	IMF建议增加旨在改善劳动力市场灵活性、通过运输和通讯基础设施投资增强国家竞争力以及摆脱天然能源出口依赖、实现多元化的改革。


Moreover, reducing trade barriers between these countries is essential for taking advantage of regional synergies and economies of scale.	此外，消除彼此之间的贸易壁垒是中亚国家利用地区协调性和规模经济的关键。


Central Asia’s economies need greater access to their neighbors’ markets, energy, and transportation infrastructure.	中亚国家需要更多地获得邻国的市场、能源和交通基础设施。


Above all, these states need to create a more favorable climate for business and foreign investment through enhanced transparency, improved governance, and more effective political, economic, and social institutions.	最重要的是，中亚国家需要增强透明度、改善治理、提高政治、经济和社会制度的效率，从而营造更有利的商业和外国投资氛围。


Although some Central Asian countries have made progress, most still lag other emerging markets in accountability, rule of law, and reducing corruption.	一些中亚国家已经取得了长足的进步，但在可问责性、法治精神和消灭腐败等方面仍显得十分落后。


Elsewhere in the post-Soviet world, Georgia’s success shows that determined governments can reduce even entrenched venality.	在前苏联的其他地区，格鲁吉亚的策划你公公表明，只要政府下定决心，便可消灭根深蒂固的腐败。


In the meantime, Central Asian countries need sustained donor support, because private investment flows have not recovered to levels that preceded the global financial crisis.	与此同时，中亚国家也需要持续的援助支持，因为私人投资流至今仍未恢复到全球金融危机爆发前的水平。


But foreign donors must exercise greater oversight and conditionality in their regional aid programs, as well as ensure that their assistance is better coordinated and integrated than in the past.	但外国援助者在开展地区援助计划时必须加强调查、谈好条件，确保援助项目得到比以前更好的合作和协调。


Central Asia’s hydrocarbon reserves, and its pivotal location, make it strategically important for many countries.	中亚地处关键地带，且拥有巨大的碳氢化合物储量，这使得该地区对许多国家具有战略重要性。


Russian energy managers count on the region’s oil and gas supplies to supplement stagnating domestic production.	俄罗斯能源巨头指望该地区的油气供应来补充停滞不前的国内产量。


Western governments aim to circumvent Russia’s pipelines and import some oil and gas directly.	西方政府希望绕过俄罗斯，从中亚直接进口油气。


China views the region’s resources as an essential complement to its more vulnerable maritime energy imports from Africa and the Persian Gulf, and has invested billions of dollars constructing overland pipelines.	中国将中亚视为不太稳定的非洲和波斯湾海路能源进口线的重要补充，并已经投资了数���亿美元用于建设陆上管道。


All of this serves to increase the political uncertainty that threatens the region’s stability.	所有这些都增加了政治不确定性，威胁到中亚地区的稳定。


These countries urgently need structural reforms that can generate more inclusive economic growth and political institutions that channel, rather than suppress, legitimate popular demands.	中亚国家迫切需要结构性改革，以形成普惠的经济增长和政治制度，疏导（而不是压迫）合理的民众需求。


Citizens who can help to shape their country’s public policies through elections and other legal political activities are less likely to resort to extra-constitutional means.	能够通过选举和其他合法政治途径左右祖国公共政策的公民不太可能会去寻求宪法之外的办法。


The End of Globalization?	全球化的终结？


BRUSSELS – China has just announced that last year, for the first time since it began opening up its economy to the world at the end of the 1970s, exports declined on an annual basis.	布鲁塞尔—中国刚刚宣布，去年其出口自20世纪70年代末经济开放以来第一次出现按年下滑。 这不是全部；


And that is not all; in value terms, global trade declined in 2015.	按价值衡量，全球贸易在2015年出现了萎缩。


The obvious question is why.	显而易见的问题是为什么。


While global trade also fell in 2009, the explanation was obvious: The world was experiencing a sharp contraction in GDP at the time.	2009年，全球贸易也出现了下滑，但原因清晰：当时世界GDP也在剧烈萎缩。


Last year, however, the world economy grew by a respectable 3%.	但是，去年世界经济增长率相当出色，为3%。


Moreover, trade barriers have not risen significantly anywhere, and transport costs are falling, owing to the sharp decline in oil prices.	此外，贸易壁垒也没有任何显著增加，而拜石油价格暴跌所赐，运输成本也在下降。


Tellingly, the so-called Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of chartering the large ships that carry most long-distance trade, has fallen to an all-time low.	很能说明问题的是所谓的波罗的海干散指数，它衡量大型长途贸易货船成本。 该指数下跌至有史以来最低点。


This indicates that markets do not expect a recovery, meaning that the data from 2015 could herald a new age of slowing trade.	这表明市场没有复苏预期，意味着2015年的数据可能预示贸易放缓的新时代。


The obvious conclusion is that the once-irresistible forces of globalization are losing steam.	显而易见的结论是曾经不可阻挡的全球化力量正在失去动力。


The situation in China is telling.	中国的情况很能说明问题。


In recent decades, as it became the world’s leading trading economy, China transformed the global trading system.	近几十年中，随着中国成为世界领先的贸易经济，它也在改变着全球贸易体系。


Now the value of both imports and exports have fallen, though the former have declined more, owing to the collapse of global commodity prices.	如今，拜全球大宗商品价格暴跌所赐，其进出口值出现双降，进口降幅更大。


In fact, commodity prices are the key to understanding trade trends over the last few decades.	事实上，大宗商品价格是理解过去几十年贸易趋势的关键。


When they were high, they drove increased trade – to the point that the share of trade to GDP rose – fueling hype about the inevitable progress of globalization.	当大宗商品价格高企时，就会推动贸易增加——贸易占GDP之比上升——全球化呈现出不可阻挡的燎原之势。


But in 2012, commodity prices began to fall, soon bringing trade down with them.	但在2012年，大宗商品价格开始下跌，很快贸易就被拖下水。


Assume that one ton of steel and ten barrels of oil are needed to produce one car.	假设制造一辆汽车需要一吨钢和十桶石油。


In 2002-2003, that bundle of raw materials was worth around $800, or about 5% of the value of a $16,000 car.	2002—2003年，这些原材料价值大约800美元，或16,000美元汽车价值的5%左右。


This implies that, during the early 2000s, industrial countries had to export five cars for every one hundred bundles of these raw materials they imported.	这意味着，在21世纪初，工业国需要出口五辆汽车才能弥补它们所进口的每一百套这些原材料。


By 2012-2013, the value of the raw materials needed for a car increased to about $2,000, about 10% of the cost of the same car (prices of cars had increased by much less).	2012年—2013年，生产一辆汽车所需要的原材料价值上升到2,000美元左右，约占同一辆汽车的10%（汽车单价丈涨幅要小得多）。


Industrial countries thus had to export double, namely ten cars for the same amount of imports of raw materials.	因此，工业国需要加倍出口，即出口十辆车才能弥补同样数量的进口原材料。


Clearly, there is a direct link between the trends in trade and commodity prices (see figure).	显然，贸易趋势和大宗商品价格趋势之间存在直接联系（见图）。


Given that this connection affects all manufactured goods that require raw material inputs, it should be no surprise that, as commodity prices have declined, so has global trade.	由于这一联系影响所有需要原材料投入的制造品，因此毫不奇怪，随着大宗商品价格下跌，全球贸易也跟着萎缩。


One might argue that this example concerns only the value of trade, and that in recent decades, the growth of trade by volume also has exceeded that of real GDP growth.	你也许会说，这个例子只关注贸易的价值，而在最近几十年中，贸易量的增长也超过了实际GDP增长。


But commodity prices affect trade volumes as well, because higher commodity prices force industrial countries to increase the volume of their exports (ten cars instead of five, in the example provided), in order to cover the costs of the same volume of raw material imports.	但大宗商品价格也影响贸易量，因为大宗商品价格上涨迫使工业国增加出口量（在上面的例子中，需要出口十辆汽车而不是五辆）才能弥补同样数量的原材料进口成本。


Because food, fuels, and raw materials comprise about a quarter of global trade, when their prices fluctuate – especially as strongly as they have in recent decades – aggregate trade figures are obviously affected.	由于粮食、燃料和原材料占了世界贸易的大约四分之一，因此当它们的价格开始波动时——特别是像最近几十年那样的强烈波动——总贸易数字显然也会受到影响。


Given the massive drop in commodity prices lately, there is little need to seek any other explanation for the recent slowdown in trade.	基于最近大宗商品价格的暴跌之势，没有必要寻找其他贸易最近放缓的解释了。


This is not to say that globalization and trade are one and the same.	这并不是说全球化和贸易完全一样。


Globalization entails many other features, including the surge in cross-border financial transactions and tourism, data exchange, and other economic activities.	全球化还包括其他许多特征，如跨境金融贸易和旅游、数据交换以及其他经济活动的猛增。


In fact, these other interconnections have fed back into trade, as they have enabled the emergence of global value chains, whereby different steps of the production process occur in different countries.	事实上，这些其他互动关系反过来影响了贸易，因为它们促进了全球价值链的形成，从而不同的生产流程步骤在不同的国家完成。


But this phenomenon has been overestimated.	但这一现象被高估了。


According to the World Trade Organization, the foreign value-added contained in exports is only around 15% for most large economies, such as the United States and the European Union.	据国际贸易组织的数据，美国和欧盟等最大经济体出口中的所包含的外国增加值只占15%左右。


In other words, global value chains have little impact on these larger trading economies.	换句话说，全球价值链对于这些大型贸易经济来说没有什么影响。


China is the only exception.	中国是唯一的例外。


Its position as an assembly platform for the world’s products meant that it imported most of the highest value-added elements of those goods.	其作为世界产品装配平台的地位意味着其需要进口这些商品中大部分增加值最高的部件。


But as the country’s industrial structure matures – Chinese-assembled iPhones now contain more Chinese-made parts than they did just a few years ago – it will move closer to the US and the EU in value-added terms, not the other way around.	但随着中国产业结构的成熟——如今中国装配的iPhone中所包含的中国产部件数量比几年前多了许多——它在增加值方面将更加接近于美国和欧盟，而不是其他国家。


This is yet another reason why trade might diminish in importance.	这是贸易重要性可能下降的另一个原因。


When something is widely hyped, there is nearly always a real reason for it.	当一件事广为流传时，几乎肯定有真实的原因。


Most economies are more open today than they were a generation ago.	如今，大部分经济体比一代人之前开放了很多。


But it is now becoming clear that the perception that globalization is some overwhelming and inexorable force largely reflected the side effects of the last decade’s commodity boom.	但显然，认为全球化是不可阻挡的压倒性力量反映出过去十年大宗商品价格繁荣的副作用。


If prices remain low, as seems likely, the next decade might well see global trade stagnate, as the trade pattern “rebalances” from emerging economies to the established industrial powers.	如果价格保持低位（看起来很有可能），未来十年极有可能发生全球贸易停滞，因为贸易模式实现从新兴经济体到老牌工业力量的“再平衡”。


The Great Income Stagnation	收入大停滞


BERKELEY – Nowadays, the inequality debate often focuses on the disproportionate accumulation of income and wealth by a very small share of households in the United States and other advanced economies.	伯克利—如今，不平等性争论常常聚焦于美国和其他发达经济体的极小部分家庭的收入和财富积累。


Less noticed – but just as corrosive – is the trend of falling or stagnating incomes for the majority of households.	不太受到关注但害处不遑多让的一个趋势是大部分家庭收入下降或停滞。


For much of the post-World War II period, until the 2000s, strong GDP and employment growth in the advanced economies meant that almost all households experienced rising incomes, both before and after taxes and transfers.	在直到21世纪初的大部分战后时期，发达经济体GDP和就业增长强劲，这意味着几乎所有家庭都经历了收入增加，不管是税收和转移支付之前还是之后。


As a result, generation after generation grew up expecting to be better off than their parents.	因此，一代又一代人都期望比父辈过得更好。


But, according to new research from the McKinsey Global Institute, that expectation may no longer be warranted.	但据麦肯锡全球研究所的新研究，这一趋势不再笃定。


During the last decade, income growth came to an abrupt halt for most households in the developed countries, with those headed by single women or comprising young, less educated workers among the hardest hit.	在过去十年中，发达国家大部分家庭的收入增长戛然而止，那些以单身女性为主或受教育程度较低的年轻工人组成的家庭受影响最为严重。


Real income from wages and capital for households in the same part of the income distribution was lower in 2014 than in 2005 for about two-thirds of households in 25 advanced economies – more than 500 million people. From 1993 to 2005, by contrast, less than 2% of households in these economies had flat or falling incomes.	25个发达经济体收入分布中的这部分家庭中，有三分之二即超过2亿人，来自工资和资本的家庭真实收入在2014年比2005年更低，相反，这些经济体只有不到2%的家庭收入保持不变或下降。


Increases in government transfers and lower tax rates reduced the effect of stagnating or falling market incomes on disposable incomes.	政府转移支付的增加和税率的降低削弱了市场收入的停滞或下降对可支配收入的影响。


Nonetheless, 20-25% of households faced flat or falling disposable incomes from 2005 to 2014, compared to less than 2% in the preceding 12 years.	尽管如此，2005年—2014年，有20—25%的家庭面临可支配收入不变或下降，而此前12年的这一比例还不到2%。


A major culprit behind this reversal is the deep recession and slow recovery following the 2008 economic crisis in the advanced economies.	如此剧变的一个主要原因是2008年发达经济体的经济危机所造成的深度衰退和缓慢复苏。


From 1993 to 2005, GDP growth contributed about 18 percentage points to annual median household income growth, on average, in the US and Europe; that figure plunged to just four percentage points from 2005 to 2014.	从1993年到2005年，平均而言美国和欧洲GDP增长贡献了年中位家庭收入增长的大约18个百分点； 而从2005年到2014年，这一数字下降到只有四个百分点。


But the post-crisis drop in growth is far from the only problem.	但危机后增长不力绝非唯一的问题。


(If it were, the last decade could be just an anomaly.)	（如果是的话，过去的十年仅仅是一个反常时期。


Longer-term factors like weak investment, decelerating labor-force growth, and a sharp slowdown in productivity growth have reduced income growth for the median household in most advanced countries relative to the 1993-2005 period.	）更长期的因素，比如投资萎靡、劳动力增长减速、生产率增长大幅下降等，导致大部分发达国家中位家庭收入增长相对1993—2005年期间有所降低。


Demographic shifts – including changing family structure, low fertility rates, and population aging – have led to reductions both in the overall size of households and in the number of working-age earners per household.	人口变化——包括家庭结构变迁、生育率降低以及人口老化——既降低了家庭总规模，也减少了每户家庭适龄工作者的��量。


And labor-market shifts – driven by technological change, the globalization of low- and medium-skill jobs, and the growing prevalence of part-time, temporary employment – have caused the wage share of national income to decline and the distribution of that income among households to become increasingly uneven.	而劳动市场变化——受技术变革、中低技能岗位全球化以及兼职和临时性工作日益普遍的推动——导致工资占国民收入之比下降以及家庭收入分布日益不均匀。


None of these trends is going to be reversed anytime soon.	这些趋势都不可能很快逆转。


On the contrary, some are likely to strengthen.	相反，其中一些可能进一步强化。


McKinsey’s research confirms the role of such long-term factors in undermining incomes for the majority of households.	麦肯锡的研究确认了这些长期因素是制约大部分家庭收入的原因。


It shows that most households’ real market incomes remained flat or fell, even though aggregate growth remained positive in the 2005-2014 period.	研究表明，虽然2005—2014年间总增长仍为正，但大部分家庭的真实市场收入保持不变或下降。


In the US, in particular, the ability of labor to protect its share of national income, and of lower- and middle-income households to protect their share of the wage pool, eroded substantially.	特别是美国，劳动力捍卫自己占国民收入中的比例的能力，以及中低收入家庭捍卫自己在工资总量中的比例的能力都大幅下降。


As a result, real growth in median disposable income slowed by nine percentage points from 1993 to 2005, and by another seven percentage points from 2005 to 2014.	结果，1993—2005年间中位可支配收入真实增长放缓了九个百分点，2005—2014年间又放缓了七个百分点。


Sweden, where median households received a larger share of the gains from output growth in the 2005-2014 period, has bucked this negative trend.	瑞典是这一负面趋势的例外，其中位家庭在2005—2014年间占产出增长所带来的收益的比重有所增加。


In response to the growth slowdown of the last decade, Sweden’s government worked with employers and unions to reduce working hours and preserve jobs.	为了应对过去十年的增长减速，瑞典政府与雇主和工会合作削减工时、保留工作岗位。


Thanks to these interventions, market incomes fell or were flat for only 20% of households.	由于这些干预，只有20%的家庭市场收入保持不变或下降。


And generous net transfers meant that disposable incomes increased for almost all households.	而慷慨的净转移支付意味着几乎所有家庭的可支配收入都有所增加。


To be sure, the US also intervened after the crisis, implementing a fiscal stimulus package in 2009 that, along with other transfers, raised median disposable income growth by the equivalent of five percentage points.	平心而论，美国也在危机后进行了干预，2009年实施了财政刺激方案，该方案与其他转移支付计划一起将中位可支配收入增长提高了相当于五个百分点。


A four-point decline in median market income thus became a one-percentage-point gain in median disposable income.	因此，四个点的中位市场收入下降转变为一个百分点的中位可支配收入上升。


But that did not change the fact that, from 2005 to the end of 2013, market incomes declined for 81% of US households.	但这并未改变事实：从2005年到2013年底，81%的美国家庭收入收入出现下降。


Similarly, recent research by Berkeley’s Emmanuel Saez shows that real market income for the bottom 99% in the US grew in both 2014 and 2015 at rates not seen since 1999.	类似地，伯克利的艾曼努尔·萨伊兹（Emmanuel Saez）的研究表明，2014年和2015年美国最底层99%的家庭真实市场收入增长率均为1999年以来所未见。


Nonetheless, by the end of 2015, real market incomes for that group had recovered only about two-thirds of the losses borne during the 2007-2009 recession.	但是，到2015年底，该群体真实市场收入只恢复了2007—2009年衰退期间损失的大约三分之二。


In other words, while disposable income did not fall in either Sweden or the US, the US approach was to compensate for a decline in market incomes, which Sweden had managed to head off.	换句话说，在让工人回到过去的收入水平方面，美国的干预比瑞典效果差得多。


The consequences of such failures are far-reaching.	如此失败的后果影响深远。


Stagnating or falling real incomes do not just act as a brake on consumption demand and GDP growth; they also fuel social and political discontent, as citizens lose confidence in existing economic structures.	停滞或下降的真实收入并不只是遏制了消费需求和GDP增长； 随着公民对现有经济结构丧失信心，它们还助长了社会和政治不满。


MGI surveys in France, the United Kingdom, and the US have found that people whose incomes are not growing, and who do not anticipate an improvement, tend to view trade and immigration much more negatively than those who are experiencing or foresee gains.	法国、英国和美国的麦肯锡全球研究所调查发现，收入不增长的人，以及没有预料到出现改善的人，对待贸易和移民的态度比经历或预见到收益的人更加负面。


The Brexit vote in the UK and bipartisan opposition to trade agreements in the US are clear signs of this.	英国脱欧投票和美国两党均反对贸易即是明证。


Recent debate about income inequality in the US and other developed countries has focused on the rapid surge in incomes for the few.	美国和其他发达国家最近的有关收入不平等性的争论聚焦于极少数人收入的迅速增加。


But stagnating or falling incomes for the many add a different dimension to the debate – and demand different types of solutions that emphasize wage growth for the majority of the income distribution.	但大多数人收入停滞或下降为这一争论平添一个不同角度——也要求强调让收入分布中的大多数工资增长的不同类型的解决办法。


With most households continuing to face stagnating or falling incomes – and with younger generations thus on track to be poorer than their parents – such solutions are urgently needed.	大部分家庭继续面临着收入停滞或下降——年轻一代也因此将比父辈更加贫穷——这样的情况更是急需这样的解决办法。


Stalin Lives	斯大林还活着


The legacy of dead dictators from vanquished totalitarian regimes should no longer be ambivalent.	对失败的极权政府的已故独裁者留下的影响，不能再持模棱两可的态度。


Only Germany’s lunatic fringe dares to commemorate Hitler.	现在敢纪念希特勒的也只有德国一些疯狂分子罢了。


Not even the pathetic remnant of the Khmer Rouge celebrates Pol Pot’s memory.	就连红色高棉那点可怜的残余势力也不敢再去缅怀波尔布特。


Yet, as Russia approaches the 60th anniversary of its victory over Nazi Germany, marking Stalin’s role in that victory is proving to be damnably awkward.	但随着俄国战胜纳粹德国60周年纪念日的临近，如何评价斯大林在这一胜利中扮演的角色也就变得异常令人尴尬。


Indeed, earlier this year, Moscow was roiled by debates about whether or not to build a statue to the dead dictator.	事实上，今年初，莫斯科便被要不要为斯大林这位已故独裁者塑像的辩论搅得心烦意乱。


In large bookstores across Russia, a huge number of political biographies and histories portray Stalin and his era.	俄罗斯各地的大型书店里充斥着大量的纪录斯大林及斯大林时代的政治传记和历史书籍。


Some of these, based on newly opened archival material, are critical.	这些书中，有些是以新公开的档案资料为基础的，具有批判性。


But the majority of these books and authors portray Stalin in a positive light.	但绝大多数书和作者对斯大林进行的是正面描写。


Indeed, when Russians are asked to list the most important people of the twentieth century, Stalin is still tied for first place – with Lenin.	事实上，在俄罗斯公民列出的20世纪最重要人物中，斯大林仍然稳居榜首—与列宁一样。


Some see the hand of what remains of the Communist Party behind this.	有些人认为这是共产党残余势力操控的结果。


The Party has moved far from its old Leninist ideals, as it seeks support nowadays through a witch’s brew of Russian nationalism, hyper-orthodox Christianity, and “state Stalinism.”	现在，俄罗斯共产党已经远离了原来的列宁主义，从俄罗斯国家主义、超正统派基督教，和“国家斯大林主义”中获取支持。


Of course, towns and cities are no longer named for Stalin.	当然，现在城镇已经不再以斯大林来命名了。


In the late 1950’s, countless Stalin monuments were demolished.	20世纪50年代末，无数斯大林纪念碑被摧毁。


Yet many symbols of Stalin’s rule have been carefully preserved, including the national anthem he personally approved in 1944.	但是还是有很多斯大林统治的象征物被精心保留下来，包括斯大林在1944年亲自批准的国歌。


There are seven high-rises in Moscow that Russians still call “Stalin’s vysotki.”	至今，莫斯科还有7大高层建筑被俄罗斯人称为“斯大林摩天大楼”。


Next to Lenin’s tomb is Stalin’s grave and monument, where heaps of fresh flowers are always to be seen on the anniversaries of his birth, his death, and the victory over Hitler.	斯大林墓及纪念碑就位于列宁墓侧，每逢斯大林的生日、忌日和战胜希特勒纪念日，他的墓前都会堆满了鲜花。


To be sure, Khrushchev’s uncovering of Stalin’s crimes and cult of personality in 1956 made a huge impression both in the Soviet Union and abroad.	毫无疑问，1956年赫鲁晓夫对斯大林罪行的揭发与个人崇拜的披露在苏联国内外都造成了巨大的影响。


But many people in the political elite and military circles were enraged by Khrushchev’s revelations.	但是，赫鲁晓夫的披露激怒了很多政界、军界的高层人物。


This incited many attempts to rehabilitate Stalin, especially during the 20 years of Leonid Brezhnev’s rule, which we now call the period of “stagnation.”	他们多次试图为斯大林恢复名誉，尤其是在勃列日涅夫执政的20年间，现在我们把这段时期称为“停滞”期。


Mikhail Gorbachev continued to uncover the crimes of Stalinism, shedding light on dark pages that Khrushchev lacked the courage to open to public view.	米凯尔•戈尔巴乔夫继续披露斯大林的罪行，公开了赫鲁晓夫没有勇气向民众展示的黑暗事实。


During Boris Yeltsin’s presidency, this criticism became even stronger.	叶利钦执政期间，对斯大林的批判更为激烈。


But demolishing the ideological, political and economic structures of the past is not enough to renew society.	但是摧毁过去的意识形态、政治结构和经济结构并不足以使社会获得新生。


Yeltsin understood this.	对这点，叶利钦非常清楚。


Eight years ago the remains of the Romanov family were publicly buried in the Peter-Paul castle in Saint Petersburg.	8年前，沙皇罗曼洛夫家族的遗骸被公开安葬到圣彼得堡市的圣彼得－保罗教堂内。


Nicolas II gained the status of saintly martyr.	尼古拉斯二世也获得了殉难圣徒的地位。


The reburial of the Romanovs, however, didn’t touch the public’s emotions for long.	但是，重新安葬罗曼洛夫家族给民众感情带来的触动并没有持续太长时间。


Over 50% of Russia’s population, including teachers, scientists, doctors, and military personnel, have seen their quality of life fall since communism’s demise.	50%的俄罗斯人, 包括老师、科学家、医生、军人都认为在共产党下台后，他们的生活质量下降了。


No surprise, then, that they are nostalgic for the past, including Stalin.	那么他们怀念过去，怀念斯大林也就不足为奇了。


People of the older generation do, of course, remember the hardships of the 1930’s and 1940’s.	当然，对二十世纪30年代、40年代的种种艰苦，老一辈的人都还记忆犹新。


But most Russians do not view the entire Soviet period as some sort of black hole.	但绝大多数俄罗斯人并不把整个苏维埃统治期看作是一片黑暗。


They see a time of hardship, yes, but also of great achievements – in economic development, science, culture, education, and defense of the motherland during the war.	在他们眼里，那当然是个艰苦卓绝的时代，但也是取得巨大成就的时代---在经济发展、科学、文化、教育和在战争中保卫祖国方面都取得了伟大成就。


Today, Russians listen to old Soviet songs and watch Soviet-era movies.	今天，俄罗斯人听着苏联老歌，看着苏联时期的电影。


May 1 (Labor Day), and November 7 (the anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution) remain much more meaningful than newly installed postcommunist holidays, such as June 12 (Independence Day).	与共产党统治结束后新制定的节日，如6月12日独立日相比，五一劳动节和十月革命纪念日（11月7日）的意义依然要重大得多。


In fact, for many Russians, the declaration of Russia’s independence in 1990 represents a low point in the country’s history, a year of anarchy and disarray.	事实上，对很多俄罗斯人来说1990年俄罗斯的独立宣言代表着这个国家历史的低潮。 那一年是混乱的一年。


What can Russians be proud of in the 15 years of postcommunism?	共产党统治结束后的15年里，有什么是可以让俄罗斯人感到自豪的？


Shock therapy that ruined the economy and gave away the country’s wealth to private but rarely clean hands?	难道是摧毁了国民经济，将国家财富拱手转到了私人手中（这些手少有清白干净的）的休克疗法吗？


Neither democracy nor markets are seen by most Russians as absolute values, because they have failed to deliver either prosperity or security.	在大多数俄罗斯人眼里，民主和市场都不是绝对价值，因为民主和市场并没有带来繁荣与稳定。


What victories has Russia’s army achieved in these years?	这些年来，俄罗斯的军队取得过什么胜利？


It could not even subdue Chechnya, a small republic within the Russian federation.	他们连俄罗斯联邦内小小的共和国车臣都无法制服。


The Russian federation remains a collection of multinational states in need of some unifying idea of statehood and nationality to keep them together.	俄罗斯联邦依然是多民族联邦主体的结合体，需要一些国家地位、民族性的观念将这些联邦主体团结在一起。


The easiest and the most understandable idea for Russians to cling to is patriotism.	最简单、最容易被俄罗斯人理解并坚持的莫过于爱国主义。


Only two events have the power to mobilize and energize this sense of patriotism: the October revolution of 1917 and the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945, which turned the USSR and Russia into a great world power.	只有两大事件有力量激发起民众的爱国主义情绪： 1917年的10月革命和1941-1945年的卫国战争。 卫国战争使苏联和俄罗斯得以跻身于世界强国之列。


The victory over fascism, because so many of its participants remain active, is a living event in our memory.	因为还有很多参加过这一反法西斯战争的人活着，因此在我们的记忆中，这一胜利依旧鲜活生动。


Victory Day this year will likely be the last “round” anniversary of 1945 that Russia can commemorate while many thousands of veterans are alive and able to participate.	今年的1945年胜利纪念日可能是数千名活着的老兵能参加的最后一个整周年纪念日。


So the Kremlin is preparing to mark the event on a scale that Russia has never seen before.	因此克里姆林宫准备以前所未有的规模来纪念这一事件。


Needless to say, Stalin’s name will be mentioned countless times during these celebrations.	不用说，在这些庆典活动中，斯大林的名字将被无数次地反复提及。


But it would be a mistake to see this public recognition of Stalin as a real yearning for every aspect of the system he created.	但是，如果把公众对斯大林的认可看成是对斯大林创建的体系的各个方面的真心向往，那就错了。


Instead, acknowledging Stalin is a way for Russians to recall a time of great deeds and perhaps even greater sacrifices.	相反，认可斯大林是俄罗斯人追念过去时代的一种方式，在那个时代，取得过伟大成就，而付出的牺牲可能更大。


Patriotism everywhere is always based on such notions.	不管在哪里，爱国主义总是建立在这样的观念之上的。


State Aggression and Judicial Passivity	侵略行为以及司法被动性


WASHINGTON, DC – When the member states of the International Criminal Court gather later this month in Kampala, Uganda, for a conference to review the ICC’s work, one issue on the agenda will be whether to amend the Court’s statute to allow it to exercise jurisdiction over the crime of aggression.	发自华盛顿特区——国际刑事法院各成员国代表将在本月晚些时候齐聚乌干达首都坎帕拉，开会审议法院近一段时期的工作，其中一项议程就是是否要对法院规约进行修正，使其可以对侵略罪行使管辖权。


That issue was deferred when the ICC Statute was adopted in 1998.	该条款在1998年《国际刑事法院规约》（又称罗马规约）颁布时被搁置至今。


Based on my experience as an international prosecutor, and speaking as a strong supporter of the ICC, I believe that it would be a serious mistake to add the crime of aggression to the Court’s docket now. The issue should be deferred again.	而作为一个国际检察官，同时也是法院的坚定支持者，我认为把侵略罪列入法院管辖范围的这一举措在目前来说是极大的错误，还是继续搁置为妙。


By any measure, the ICC has gotten off to a strong start in generating global support and demonstrating its potential to address the problem of official impunity for serious international crimes.	无论如何，国际刑事法院已经在争取国际支持方面开了个好头，同时在某些犯下严重国际罪行的政府官员逍遥法外这个问题上，法院也显示了自己解决问题的潜力。


But it also has encountered charges of politicization, and it is still learning, as an institution, how to exercise effectively its jurisdiction over genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes.	但它同时也遭到了指责，认为其背后实际上受政治操纵的。 而作为一个机构，法院一直在努力学习如何有效地在对种族灭绝，反人类罪和战争罪方面行使管辖权。


The experience of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), which also addressed genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, should sound a cautionary note for ICC members as they debate whether to add the crime of aggression to their jurisdiction.	对于正在讨论将侵略罪列入管辖范围的成员国代表来说，同样提出了种族灭绝，反人类罪和战争罪指控的前南斯拉夫国际刑事法院所取得的经验应该能提供一点警示意义。


One of the greatest challenges I faced as the ICTY prosecutor was convincing the Serbian public that the court was not a politically motivated conspiracy against Serbia.	作为当时的首席检察官，我所面对的最大挑战就是说服塞族民众，让他们明白法院本身并不是一个场政治阴谋。


This challenge would have been immensely greater – perhaps impossible – if the Tribunal’s jurisdiction had included the crime of aggression.	而如果法院把侵略罪也纳入管辖范围的话，上述挑战将变得无比艰巨——甚至变成一项不可能的任务。


Indeed, including aggression would have required me to investigate and potentially prosecute the decision to go to war – inherently a profoundly political decision.	事实上，将侵略罪包含在内势必要求我展开调查，并可能对宣战的决定——这本来就是一个深层次的政治决策——提起诉讼。


Prosecuting that decision would have inflamed suspicions of an anti-Serbian plot; choosing not to prosecute would have incited countervailing charges that the Tribunal was not fulfilling its mandate.	而这方面的指控势必会引起怀疑，质疑法院是否有反塞族的阴谋； 倘若不指控的话，又会反过来激发对法院未能履行自身职责的指责。


Such a debate would have diverted attention and energy from the imperative of fairly and effectively providing justice and accountability for the grave crimes then being committed against civilians in the former Yugoslavia.	这种争吵将分散法院的注意力和精力，使其不能完成更重要的职能，那就是为前南斯拉夫地区平民所遭受的严重罪行提供公平有效的审判并追究犯罪者的责任。


Now is not the time for the ICC to risk embroiling itself in similar controversy.	很显然，对于国际刑事法院来说，现在还不是把自己卷入类似争议的时候。


The issues that would arise from dealing with allegations of aggression would give ammunition to the ICC’s critics who claim that it is a highly politicized institution.	从侵略指控所衍生出来的事务将为那些批评法院是一个高度政治化机构的人提供口实。


Moreover, as a young institution, the Court still has much work to do in effectively investigating and prosecuting the crimes over which it already exercises jurisdiction.	此外，作为一个年轻的机构（2002年成立），法院在有效调查和指控已经在其管辖范围内的罪行方面还有许多工作要做。


Cooperation from member states and the relationship between peace and justice are just two vital issues that require sustained attention at Kampala and beyond.	成员国之间的合作以及如何处理和平与正义之间的关系都是需要代表们在会议期间以及未来持续关注的现实问题。


Grappling with the crime of aggression also threatens to open rifts among members of the Court and other Court supporters.	在侵略罪方面纠缠不清同时也可能导致成员国内部以及法院支持者之间的互相指责。


Despite years of complex negotiations, deep disagreements persist over key issues related to amending the statute on aggression, such as state consent and how cases would be initiated.	虽然各方已经经历了数年的复杂协商，但在某些和侵略罪有关的关键事务方面，比如如何取得成员国同意以及如何启动案件方面都依然存在着深层次的不信任。


It is unrealistic to expect consensus to be reached on these issues in the days remaining before the Kampala meeting.	如果指望在坎帕拉会议召开之前的短短一段时间内就这些事务达成一致的话，那是不现实的。


And attempting to force a decision in the absence of consensus would vitiate one of the strongest assets the Court has had – the solidarity of its members in the face of efforts to undermine the project of an effective and independent international mechanism for justice and accountability.	而试图在没有共识的情况下强制形成决议无疑将削弱法院其中一个最有力的特性——那就是每当在建立一个独立，有效，可以审判和追究犯罪责任的国际机制方面遇到困难时，各成员国所表现出来的团结。


The ICC review conference in Kampala will not be the last opportunity to amend the statute. The Court’s members can choose to do so at any time in the future.	坎帕拉会议不是修改规约的最后机会，成员国未来随时都可以做出这样的决定。


They should wait at least until the Court is more established institutionally and a broader consensus emerges on the relevant issues.	但他们应该等到法院运作制度更加完备，且在相关事务方面形成更广泛的共识之时，再下决定。


State of the Art, or Art of the State?	艺术国家还是国家艺术？


September is traditionally the time when opera companies and orchestras return to their home cities from Aix, Salzburg, Tanglewood, and countless other summer festivals.	在传统上，9月是歌剧团和乐团从埃克斯、萨尔斯堡和坦格伍德等各大夏季音乐节回到故里的时节。


This rentrée is also marked (on both sides of the Atlantic) by the return of worries about how classical music is financed.	这一回归也标志着（在大西洋两岸的）人们对古典音乐资金资源的担忧又上心头。


American symphonic life is Euro-centric in almost every respect except for its funding.	美式的交响乐生活在除了资金支持以外的各个方面都是以欧洲为中心的。


Whereas Americans depend upon tax-deductible private donations and box office receipts to finance live classical music, Europeans prefer direct government support for the arts.	美国人靠可获减税的私人捐助和票房收入的资金来支持古典音乐表演，而欧洲人则更倾向于依靠直接的政府支持。


Ironically, while arts advocates in the United States have long argued for adoption of the “European model” – which has produced a rich and varied artistic life for Europeans –Europe is being forced to change its system of support to one that depends more on private money and the box office.	具有讽刺意味的是，虽然美国的艺术倡导者们长期以来就呼吁采取“欧洲模式”—它为欧洲人提供了丰富多彩的艺术生活—但欧洲却正被迫将这种财政支持模式转变为一种更多依靠私人资金和票房的模式。


Unfortunately, Europe’s system of direct government financial support is falling victim to Europe’s slow economic growth and budget deficits.	不幸的是，欧洲的直接政府财政支持体系正成为欧洲缓慢的经济增长和预算赤字的牺牲品。


Particularly for those countries that have adopted the euro, government spending on the arts will be constrained for some time by the requirement that fiscal deficits be kept to 3% of GDP.	特别是那些欧元区国家，政府在艺术上的支出在相当一段时间里要受到财政赤字不得超过GDP 3%的要求制约.


The resulting pressure on Europe’s performing arts institutions is causing concern at various different levels.	这一情况对欧洲演艺团体造成的压力正引起不同层面的关注。


Traditionally, Europe’s social democracies have preferred allocating scarce goods and services like concerts and operas by queues (financed by huge subsidies to keep prices low) rather than by willingness to pay.	传统上，欧洲的社会民主倾向于通过排队（即提供巨额补贴降低票价以使更多的人能够欣赏）而不是自愿支付来分配如音乐会和歌剧等稀缺的商品和服务。


Now, this will change.	如今，这一局面将会改变。


Performing arts advocates in Europe point to the US where, among other things, music directors of even major orchestras are now expected to fully participate in fundraising activities and be active in the local community on the orchestras behalf.	欧洲的表演艺术倡导者们以美国为例，指出即便是美国大交响乐团的音乐总监们现在都会全身心地投入筹款活动并在其乐团所代表的社区中有积极表现。


The same thing, they fear, will happen in Europe.	他们担心同样的情况会发生在欧洲。


Some conductors, not wanting to carry a tin cup as they wave their batons, have rejected important posts in the US for this reason, feeling that it would interfere with their art.	有些指挥家由于不想一手拿指挥棒，一手拿讨饭碗，所以就拒绝了美国乐团的重要职位。 他们害怕这些活动会影响艺术追求。


Daniel Barenboim is rumored to have left the Chicago Symphony Orchestra in part because he objected to the fundraising demands that were being made of him.	据传言，Daniel Barenboim离开芝加哥交响乐团在一定程度上就是因为不满该团对他的筹款要求。


But US experience shows that getting artistic leaders like orchestra music directors to participate in fundraising need not be bad for the artistic side of the job.	但美国的经验表明让乐团的艺术领导，如音乐总监等参与筹款对其艺术职责并不一定是件坏事。


Michael Tilson Thomas in San Francisco, for example, has combined effective fundraising and artistic leadership to propel the San Francisco Symphony to the top rank of US orchestras.	比如，Michael Tilson Thomas就将筹款和艺术领导力有效结合，从而使旧金山交响乐团成为美国的顶级管弦乐团。


It also should be reassuring to Europeans who are concerned that greater reliance on private money necessarily means conservative programming that the San Francisco Symphony has one of the most adventuresome repertoires in the US.	对于担心更大程度地依赖私人资金会导致曲目编排保守的人士而言，旧金山交响乐团是演奏曲目最富冒险精神的美国乐团之一的事实，也可以使他们放心了。


If the audience has progressive tastes, private money and innovative programming are entirely compatible.	如果观众的欣赏口味不断提高，那么私人资金和创新的曲目编排是完全可以契合的。


A corollary is that public money makes it possible for adventuresome programming even if audience tastes run to the conservative side.	一个自然的推论是，即使观众的口味趋向保守，公共资金也会使富有创新精神的节目编排成为可能。


This is one reason performing artists in Europe like public money – it liberates them from a diet of only Beethoven and Mozart.	这就是欧洲的表演艺术家们喜欢公共资金的一个原因—它将他们从仅有贝多芬和莫扎特的“菜单”中解放出来。


Moreover, the audience may come to appreciate an adventuresome repertoire the more it becomes exposed to it.	另外，观众也可能因为接触到进而喜欢上富有创新精神的演奏曲目。


Of course, with reduced public spending on the performing arts, not only will there be greater reliance on private money, but ticket prices will have to rise as well.	当然，随着在表演艺术方面的公共支出减少，不但表演机构对私人资金的依赖程度会提高，票价也会提高。


Some argue that this is a bad thing, because they prefer queuing to the price system and fear that higher prices will compromise future audiences by excluding young people.	有人认为这是件坏事，因为他们更倾向于在低票价体系下让更多的人都能欣赏表演。 他们还担心更高的票价会由于将年轻人拒之门外而影响未来观众群体的成长。


But cheap prices for the performing arts do not solve the thorny problem of access for youth.	但表演艺术的低价政策并不能解决扩大年轻观众接触面的棘手问题。


First, youth may not take advantage of cheap tickets to the extent that they are not interested in going to hear live classical music at any price.	首先，年轻人可能不会充分利用低票价的好处。 有可能不管票价如何，他们都不会去看现场古典音乐演出。


Second, even if they do want to go, they may not be able to get seats, which often are not available because subscriptions stay in the same hands year after year.	其次，就算他们愿意去看，可能也无法获得座位。 主要原因是座位年复一年地都集中在同一批订户手里。


What good are cheap prices, which serve mainly to subsidize the same subscription holders, if there are no seats?	既然低价票主要是在补贴同一批订户，那么如果买不到票，它又有什么意义呢？


If a taste for classical music is to be subsidized, some more targeted subsidies should be preferred to cheap prices.	如果欣赏古典音乐需要补贴，那么更多具有针对性的补贴就比低票价更有意义。


The best way to bring youth to the performing arts is through education.	吸引年轻人欣赏表演艺术的最佳方式就是通过教育。


Because American orchestras can’t count on schools or government to provide the basic music education necessary to ensure a continuing audience for classical music, some orchestras are doing it themselves with private money.	因为管弦乐团不能指望学校或政府提供基本的教育来确保古典音乐拥有持续观众群，所以有的乐团就自己利用私人资金在这样做了。


In San Francisco, for example, the Symphony runs a $23 million privately funded project – called Keeping Score – that includes a national public television series, radio shows, interactive music learning, and school music programs.	例如，旧金山交响乐团就正在进行一项投资达2300万美元的项目—Keeping Score—这包括一个国家���共电视台的系列节目、电台节目、互动式音乐学习以及学校的音乐教育计划。


This type of innovative program is relevant for European as well as American orchestras.	这种类型的创新教育项目与欧洲和美国的管弦乐团都息息相关。


The problem of youth and access to the performing arts exists on both sides of the Atlantic.	培养年轻观众和表演艺术普及面的问题在大西洋两岸都存在。


So does poor music education in state schools.	同时存在的还有公立学校落后的音乐教育问题。


If orchestras don’t look after their own futures, they may well not have one to look after.	如果管弦乐团们不能呵护它们自己的未来，那么它们很可能就没有未来了。


States of Risk	发达经济体走钢丝


LONDON – The Great Recession of 2008-2009 was triggered by excessive debt accumulation and leverage on the part of households, financial institutions, and even the corporate sector in many advanced economies.	伦敦 ——2008~2009 年经济大衰退的导火索是许多发达经济体的过度负债，以及家庭部门、金融机构乃至企业部门的高杠杆。


While there is much talk about de-leveraging as the crisis wanes, the reality is that private-sector debt ratios have stabilized at very high levels.	尽管随着危机趋于缓和，经常可以听到去杠杆化的说法，但实际上，发达经济体私人部门的负债率仍然居高不下。


By contrast, as a consequence of fiscal stimulus and socialization of part of the private sector’s losses, there is now a massive re-leveraging of the public sector.	不仅如此，由于政府出台了大规模财政刺激政策以及部分私人亏损被全民分摊，目前出现了大规模的公共部门重建高杠杆的现象。


Deficits in excess of 10% of GDP can be found in many advanced economies, and debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to rise sharply – in some cases doubling in the next few years.	财政赤字超过 GDP 的 10% ，在许多发达经济体成了司空见惯的事情，今后几年，发达经济体的债务 —GDP 比率肯定会大幅走高，有的甚至会翻一番。


As Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff’s new book This Time is Different demonstrates, such balance-sheet crises have historically led to economic recoveries that are slow, anemic, and below-trend for many years.	正如莱因哈特与罗格夫的新书《这回不一样： 800 年来的金融愚行》所证明的，在历史上，像这种资产负债表式危机，之后的经济复苏都是缓慢、无力的，其影响会持续好几年。


Sovereign-debt problems are another strong possibility, given the massive re-leveraging of the public sector.	另一种非常容易出现的情形则是主权债务问题，尤其是在公共部门大规模重建杠杆的条件下。


In countries that cannot issue debt in their own currency (traditionally emerging-market economies), or that issue debt in their own currency but cannot independently print money (as in the euro zone), unsustainable fiscal deficits often lead to a credit crisis, a sovereign default, or other coercive form of public-debt restructuring.	在那些不能以本币发债的国家（通常是新兴市场经济体）和那些虽能以本币发债却不能独立发行货币的国家（例如欧元区国家），不可持续的财政赤字常常会导致信贷危机、主权违约以及其他强制性的公债重组。


In countries that borrow in their own currency and can monetize the public debt, a sovereign debt crisis is unlikely, but monetization of fiscal deficits can eventually lead to high inflation.	在那些以本币借债并且能够把公债货币化的国家，爆发主权债务危机的风险不大，但财政赤字的货币化最终将导致高通货膨胀。


And inflation is – like default – a capital levy on holders of public debt, as it reduces the real value of nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.	而通胀会稀释固定利率下名义债权的实际价值，本质上和违约一样，是对公债持有人强征资本税。


Thus, the recent problems faced by Greece are only the tip of a sovereign-debt iceberg in many advanced economies (and a smaller number of emerging markets).	因此，希腊最近碰到的麻烦所暴露的只是发达经济体（以及少数几个新兴市场经济体）主权债务的冰山一角。


Bond-market vigilantes already have taken aim at Greece, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Iceland, pushing government bond yields higher.	债券市场义勇军（ bond-market vigilantes ）已经把矛头对准了希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、英国、爱尔兰和冰岛，推高了这些国家国债的收益率。


Eventually they may take aim at other countries – even Japan and the United States – where fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path.	他们今后还会瞄准更多的国家，甚至包括日本和美国 —— 只要它们的财政政策运行在不可持续的轨道上。


In most advanced economies, aging populations – a serious problem in Europe and Japan –exacerbate the problem of fiscal sustainability, as falling population levels increase the burden of unfunded public-sector liabilities, particularly social-security and health-care systems.	在许多发达经济体，尤其是在欧洲和日本，人口老龄化会加剧财政风险，因为随着老龄人口比重的上升，公共服务的资金缺口会更加突出，尤其是社会保障和医疗保障体系的负担会大大加重。


Low or negative population growth also implies lower potential economic growth and therefore worse debt-to-GDP dynamics and increasingly grave doubts about the sustainability of public-sector debt.	人口的低增长甚至是负增长还意味着经济缺乏增长潜力，从而放大债务 —GDP 比率，加剧市场对这些国家公债可持续性的忧虑。


The dilemma is that, whereas fiscal consolidation is necessary to prevent an unsustainable increase in the spread on sovereign bonds, the short-run effects of raising taxes and cutting government spending tend to be contractionary.	这些国家面临两难。 要防止公债息差过度扩大就必须实施财政巩固政策，但其中的增税和削减政府开支等措施在短期内会引起紧缩效果。


This, too, complicates the public-debt dynamics and impedes the restoration of public-debt sustainability.	这也增加了公债动态（ public debt dynamics ）的复杂性，妨碍了重建公债可持续性的努力。


Indeed, this was the trap faced by Argentina in 1998-2001, when needed fiscal contraction exacerbated recession and eventually led to default.	这其实就是阿根廷在 1998~2001 年所落入的陷阱 —— 必要的财政紧缩加剧了经济衰退，最终导致违约。


In countries like the euro-zone members, a loss of external competitiveness, caused by tight monetary policy and a strong currency, erosion of long-term comparative advantage relative to emerging markets, and wage growth in excess of productivity growth, impose further constraints on the resumption of growth.	欧元区成员国还面临其他一些问题，比如过紧的货币政策和强势欧元导致外贸竞争力下降，相对于新兴市场经济体的比较优势被慢慢销蚀，工资增长快于生产率提升等等，这些都对经济复苏构成进一步的制约。


If growth does not recover, the fiscal problems will worsen while making it more politically difficult to enact the painful reforms needed to restore competitiveness.	如果经济不能恢复增长，它们的财政问题就会进一步暴露，要推行改革以恢复外贸竞争力的政治难度也会进一步加大。


A vicious circle of public-finance deficits, current-account gaps, worsening external-debt dynamics, and stagnating growth can then set in.	公共财政赤字、经常账户亏空、外债动态恶化、经济增长停滞，凡此种种，恐怕会构成一个恶性循环。


Eventually, this can lead to default on euro-zone members’ public and foreign debt, as well as exit from the monetary union by fragile economies unable to adjust and reform fast enough.	这最终则会导致欧元区国家公债和外债违约，甚至迫使一些脆弱的经济体由于不能及时调整和改革而退出欧元区。


Provision of liquidity by an international lender of last resort – the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, or even a new European Monetary Fund – could prevent an illiquidity problem from turning into an insolvency problem.	由国际上的最终贷款人，例如欧洲中央银行、国际货币基金组织或者新倡议的欧洲货币基金组织提供资金，可以防止流动性问题进一步恶化为偿债能力问题。


But if a country is effectively insolvent rather than just illiquid, such “bailouts” cannot prevent eventual default and devaluation (or exit from a monetary union) because the international lender of last resort eventually will stop financing an unsustainable debt dynamic, as occurred Argentina (and in Russia in 1998).	但如果一个国家处于事实上的破产状态，而不仅仅是一时周转不灵，这样的“救助”到头来还是不能防止违约和货币贬值（也不能防止退出货币联盟），因为国际上的最终贷款人不会一直为不可持续的债务动态提供融资，就像阿根廷和 1998 年俄罗斯所遭遇的情形一样。


Cleaning up high private-sector debt and lowering public-debt ratios by growth alone is particularly hard if a balance-sheet crisis leads to an anemic recovery.	在资产负债表式危机拖累经济复苏的情况下，想单靠经济增长来清理私人部门债务和降低公债比率是非常困难的。


And reducing debt ratios by saving more leads to the paradox of thrift: too fast an increase in savings deepens the recession and makes debt ratios even worse.	靠增加储蓄来降低负债率则会导致凯恩斯发现的“节约悖论”：储蓄的过快增加会加深经济衰退，推高负债率。


At the end of the day, resolving private-sector leverage problems by fully socializing private losses and re-leveraging the public sector is risky.	说到底，靠全民分摊私人亏损和公共部门重建杠杆来解决私人部门杠杆问题的做法风险很大。


At best, taxes will eventually be raised and spending cut, with a negative effect on growth; at worst, the outcome may be direct capital levies (default) or indirect ones (inflation).	运气好的话，最终能够做到税收增加、开支减少，但仍会对经济增长造成负面影响； 运气不好的话，后果要么是直接资本税（违约），要么是间接资本税（通胀）。


Unsustainable private-debt problems must be resolved by defaults, debt reductions, and conversion of debt into equity.	要解决不可持续的私人债务问题，必须靠违约、债务削减和债转股来实现。


If, instead, private debts are excessively socialized, the advanced economies will face a grim future: serious sustainability problems with their public, private, and foreign debt, together with crippled prospects for economic growth.	如果私人债务被过分分摊到全民头上，发达经济体的前景堪忧：一边是公私债务和外债同时陷入严重的不可持续状态，另一边是可怜的经济增长。


Stay the Course in North Korea	保持航向，应对北韩


NEW YORK – Barack Obama’s election was historic on many levels.	纽约—巴拉克•奥巴马的当选在很多层面上都是历史性的。


Between now and his inauguration on January 20, he will need to hone his policies.	从现在起到明年1月20日就职，他需要磨砺他的政策。


Much of the early focus of the Obama administration will undoubtedly be on the economy and the war in Iraq.	奥巴马政府早期的施政重点无疑将是经济和伊拉克战争。


But it is critically important that the new administration pay serious attention to other foreign-policy issues right from the start.	但新一届政府从一开始就对其他对外政策问题给予足够重视也是至关重要的。


American relations with North Korea, and the ongoing six-party talks, certainly belong at the top of the list.	美国与北朝鲜的关系和进行中的六方会谈当然需要予以优先考虑。


Here, the United States must not only stay the course, but also build on the efforts of the last few years.	在这个问题上，美国不仅需要保持原有轨道，还要继往开来。


The risks of changing course cannot be overstated.	改变轨道的风险是巨大的。


Not long after President George W. Bush came into office, his administration took a hard-line stance against the North Korean regime, calling for a review of the Clinton administration’s policy, and eventually tagging North Korea as a member of the “axis of evil.”	在乔治•W•布什就任后不久，他的政府就对北朝鲜政权采取了强硬的立场，呼吁对克林顿政府的政策进行评估，并最终给北朝鲜贴上了“邪恶轴心”成员国的标签。


While North Korea had done much over the preceding years to warrant a more critical eye, in retrospect these policies set back prospects for peace and stability in the region.	尽管在那之前的若干年里，北朝鲜在接受国际社会更多批评的目光方面做出不少努力，但回头看来布什的这些政策使该地区和平与稳定的前景遭遇了挫折。


After all, North Korea’s reaction to the Bush administration’s policies was to drop out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, restart its nuclear program, and further develop its weapons production.	毕竟，北朝鲜对布什政府政策的反应就是退出《核不扩散条约》，重新启动其核计划，并进一步发展武器生产。


Indeed, it is believed that North Korea during this time increased its stockpile of nuclear weapons.	的确，此间外界普遍认为北朝鲜增加了核武器储备。


Moreover, while there is plenty of blame to go around on all sides, America’s change of policy stalled for years the potential for progress in relations between the six parties.	另外，尽管各方各面都对此负有责任，但美国的政策改变使得六方之间的关系在多年里停滞不前。


It is only more recently, under the watch of US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, that the Bush administration’s policy toward North Korea has become more pragmatic.	仅仅是最近，在美国助理国务卿克里斯托弗•希尔的努力下督促下，布什政府对北朝鲜的政策才变得更为务实。


After North Korea threatened to restart its nuclear facility at Yongbyon, the Bush administration in early October removed the country from its terrorism blacklist.	在北朝鲜威胁重新启动宁边（Yongbyon）核设施之后，布什政府才在10月初将其从恐怖主义的黑名单上删去。


In exchange, North Korea promised to allow access to its facilities for inspections, while also dropping its opposition to Japanese and South Korean participation in inspections.	作为交换，北朝鲜承诺允许对其核设施进行检查，同时也不再反对日本和韩国参与检查。


At this point, the road forward is fraught with peril and uncertainty.	此时，前进的道路上充满了艰险和不确定因素。


As a presidential candidate, Obama spoke of the need for “sustained, direct, and aggressive diplomacy” to deal with North Korea.	作为总统候选人，奥巴马讲到了以“持续、直接和积极的外交政策”应对北朝鲜的必要性。


This formulation seems to suggest an understanding of the often-lengthy process of dealing with its regime, but it remains unclear how far Obama might be willing to go to secure America’s interests.	这一基调似乎意味着对与该政权打交道的漫长过程的理解。 但奥巴马为巩固美国的利益可能愿意努力到什么程度则仍然是个未知数。


At the same time, Obama’s advocacy of direct diplomacy caused concern during the campaign, with some questioning whether this meant that he would meet a leader such as Kim Jong-il without preconditions.	与此同时，奥巴马对直接外交政策的倡议也在其竞选过程中引起了一些顾虑。 有人疑问这是否意味着他会在没有任何先决条件的情况下会见如金正日这样的（北朝鲜）领导人。


While it is difficult to predict how far he might move in this direction, it would be politically difficult for Obama to meet the North Korean leader in such a manner, something that he is likely to learn early in his presidency.	虽然难以预测奥巴马在这条路上会走多远，但在这样的情况下会晤北朝鲜的领导人在政治上将是困难的。 这一点奥巴马在上任之初就会明白。


The on-again, off-again talks on North Korea can fluster even the most experienced of negotiators.	时断时续的关于北朝鲜问题的会谈可能让最具经验的谈判家也无所适从。


That being the case, Obama needs to build a strong team of experienced Korea hands to push the agenda forward.	果真如此，那么奥巴马就需要建立一支由对朝经验丰富的专家组成的团队来推动会谈的议程。


While trying to build on the limited progress of recent years, they will have to confront a number of additional obstacles in building a cohesive and sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula.	在继续推动近几年取得的有限进展的同时，他们还会在建立朝鲜半岛凝聚与持久和平方面遭遇若干新的障碍。


North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, is reportedly ill.	据称北朝鲜的领导人金正日已患病。


What this means for continuing the negotiations remains to be seen.	这对继续谈判的影响还未显现。


Relations between North and South Korea have taken a turn for the worse this year, following the election of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who has taken a more hard-line approach toward the North.	今年，在对北方采取强硬路线的韩国总统李明博上任后，南北韩之间的关系出现恶化。


And then there is Japan, a member of the six-party talks and a steadfast US ally, which was angered by the recent delisting of North Korea, because the North has yet to satisfy fully Japanese inquiries into the abduction of its citizens by North Korean agents decades ago.	紧接着六方会谈参与方之一，美国的坚定盟友日本又对（美国）最近将被朝鲜从支持恐怖主义国家的名单中删去大为不满。 因为北朝鲜还没有完全满足日本对其特工在数十年前绑架日本公民事件的调查。


These are just a few of the issues that will complicate US relations with North Korea and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.	这些还只是令美国与北朝鲜关系和朝鲜半岛无核化问题复杂化的事务中的一部分。


But America must stay the course. As Obama’s new administration takes over, the choice is between making some progress, as has occurred in recent years, and facing a nuclear North Korea.	随着奥巴马新政府当政，其所面临的选择是要么取得进展（正如近几年发生的情况一样），要么面对一个拥有核武的北朝鲜。


The choice is now Obama’s.	奥巴马现在要做出抉择了。


The future of peace and stability in Northeast Asia hangs in the balance.	东北亚和平与稳定的未来到了紧要关头。


The Resource Revolution	资源革命


SAN FRANCISCO – The world is on the threshold of the biggest business opportunity in a century, rivaling both the first Industrial Revolution, which transformed labor productivity, and the second,which mobilized unprecedented amounts of capital to build cities.	旧金山—世界正站在百年一遇的商业大机会的门口，这次机会堪比转变劳动生产率的第一次工业革命和动员了前所未有数量的资本建设城市的第二次工业革命。


The new revolution centers on the third primary factor of production: natural resources.	新革命将以生产的第三大主要因素——自然资源为核心。


The revolution arrives not a moment too soon.	这场革命不会很快到来。


After centuries of wasteful production and consumption practices – facilitated by ever-lower commodity prices that have declined by an average of 0.7% a year in peacetime over the past century – the world is in dire need of technologies that enable producers and consumers alike to do more with less.	在几百年的浪费性生产和消费行为后——这些浪费性行为受超低商品价格的推动，在过去一个世纪中，商品价格以平均每年0. 7%的速度下跌——世界急切地西药能够让生产者和消费者用更少东西做更多事情的技术。


Making matters more urgent, resource extraction is becoming increasingly expensive, as production shifts to locations that present difficult logistical – and often political – challenges.	更加紧迫的是，资源开采正日益昂贵，因为资源的生产日益向物流困难（通常政局也比较动荡）的地区转移。


Meanwhile, levels of air, water, and soil pollution are rising rapidly in China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and other emerging economies.	与此同时，中国、印度、印尼、巴西和其他新兴经济体的空气、水和土壤污染水平在快速上升。


In order to achieve their growth objectives, companies must fundamentally rethink the way they integrate technology and use natural resources in their productive processes.	为了实现增长目标，公司必须从根本上反思它们整合技术、在生产过程中使用自然资��的方式。


Over the last two decades, companies have had to improve their performance by only 1-2% annually to achieve an increase in profits, and many have focused almost exclusively on capital and labor productivity.	在过去二十年中，公司只需要每年改进1—2%的绩效就可以实现利润增长，不少公司几乎把所有注意力都放在了资本和劳动生产率上。


As a result, even the most successful managers lack the skills to cope with today’s resource-constrained markets.	结果，即便是最成功的管理者，也缺乏应对当今资源约束型市场的技能。


In this environment, companies cannot compete on the basis of twentieth-century (if not nineteenth-century) technologies and practices.	在这样的环境下，公司无法以二十世纪（甚至十九世纪）的技术为基础去竞争。


There is much more value in pioneering new, higher-productivity business models, based on five key changes:	在更新、更高生产率商业模式中取得领先地位价值要大得多，而这需要建立在五大关键变化的基础上：


•        Substituting costly, toxic, or scarce materials with cheaper, more efficient, higher-performance, and more abundant alternatives.	•         用价格更低、效率更高、表现更好、数量更足的替代品取代高成本、有毒性或稀缺的原料。


•        Embedding software in resource-intensive industries to optimize their production processes or products.	•         在资源密集型行业，通过借助软件优化生产过程和产品。


•        “Virtualizing” processes – that is, moving them out of the physical world.	•          “虚拟化”过程——即将它们从现实世界中移出。


•        Embracing circularity, which entails finding value in products after their initial use.	•         循环利用，即在产品被初始使用后继续寻找价值。


•        Eliminating waste.	•         消灭浪费。


The good news is that progress is already being made.	好消息是我们正在取得进步。


America’s burgeoning shale oil and gas industry, for example, has transformed its entire energy sector by revolutionizing resource extraction.	比如，方兴未艾的美国页岩油气行业通过革命性的资源开采技术转变了整个能源部门。


Today, drilling is not only a dirty process characterized by heavy equipment, toxic mud, and sulfurous fumes.	如今，钻井不再仅仅是一个肮脏的过程，充斥着重型设备、有毒污泥和含硫废气。


With the integration of information technology and hydraulic-fracturing (“fracking”), the central players are experts using joysticks and high-resolution screens to maneuver drill bits through geological formations.	页岩油气行业的核心选手是整合了信息技术和液压致裂的专家，他们使用操纵杆和高分辨率屏幕操纵钻头钻穿地质构造。


Individual companies have pioneered change in other sectors.	个体公司也在其他部门引领变化。


Cree and Philips have developed LED lighting technologies that offer 23 times longer life, measurably better color, easier control, and 85% lower operating costs than traditional incandescent bulbs.	科锐（Cree）和飞利浦开发出比传统白炽灯寿命长23倍、色彩更好、更易控制、操作成本压缩85%的LED照明技术。


Similarly, OPower has used behavioral science and cloud-based software to motivate consumers to cut their energy consumption by 2-4% annually – a change that is beginning to reshape power markets.	类似地，OPower公司利用行为科学和云基软件促使消费者每年减少2—4%的能源消费，这一变化正在开始改变电力市场。


And DIRTT (Doing it Right This Time) is building office interiors at as little as half the traditional cost through software-enabled virtualization, waste elimination, and optimization of the construction process.	DIRTT（Doing it Right This Rime这一次做对事）通过基于软件的可视化、减少两份和优化施工过程，以传统方式一半的成本从事办公室装修业务。


These innovations exemplify the massive potential for businesses to improve resource productivity.	这些创新无不彰显出企业改进资源生产率的潜力。


Indeed, using tools provided by information technology, biology, and nanotechnology, the world can triple growth in resource productivity, raising it to 3 to 5% annually over the next two decades.	事实上，使用信息技术、生物和纳米技术工具，世界能够将资源生产率增速提高两倍，在未来二十年中每年将它提高3—5%。


But this cannot occur without strong and forward-thinking leadership, which, unfortunately, is sorely lacking in today’s business environment.	但这只有在强大的前瞻性领导力下才能实现，不幸的是，这一领导力正是现今商业环境所欠缺的。


Indeed, managers today seem consistently surprised by the pace of change and thus find themselves behind the curve.	事实上，今天的管理者似乎无不被变化之快所震惊，他们已经落后于时代了。


For example, many automobile manufacturers ignored the shift toward electric and hybrid vehicles – though sales were increasing at a rate of more than 50% annually – until their sales of conventional cars plummeted in key markets.	比如，许多汽车制造商忽视了向电动和混合动力车的转型——尽管其销售以每年50%多的速度增长——直到关键市场传统汽车销售遇到大跌才有所醒悟。


Likewise, many are shocked that the cost of solar power is increasingly undercutting that of nuclear, coal, and gas technologies, even though this shift is in line with a trend that began in 1970.	类似地，许多人震惊于太阳能成本正在日益动摇核电、煤电和气电技术，尽管这一趋势从1970年就开始了。


Companies should devote more attention to developments in related industries as well.	公司还应该将更多的注意力投向相关行业的发展上。


Automakers must monitor the consumer electronics industry to track advances in battery technology.	汽车制造商必须密切关注消费电子行业，跟踪电池技术的进步。


And power companies need to analyze the development of semiconductors to anticipate the likely drop in demand for electricity, after more than a century of growth.	电力公司需要分析半导体行业的发展以预测电力需求在一百多年的增长后可能发生的下降。


To win in the resource revolution, companies must balance technological, physical, and human-capital inputs, while adopting a more intelligent approach to organizational design and talent management.	为了赢得这场资源革命，公司必须平衡好技术、实物和人力资本投入，同时采取更明智的组织设计和人才管理方法。


Whether the primary imperative is spotlighting data and analytics or forming new partnerships in other sectors to gain access to specialized expertise, aggressive innovation, and ambitious efficiency goals are critical.	不管主要障碍在于改进数据和分析还是在其他部门建立新的合伙制以获得专业知识，积极创新和远大的能源目标是至关重要的。


Forward-thinking entrepreneurs are already reaping the benefits of this fast-moving revolution.	前瞻性企业家已在撷取这场快速展开的革命的利益果实。


Those who fail to adapt will fail to survive – and soon.	不能适应的企业很快就将无法生存。


Stem Cell Obscurantism	干细胞蒙昧主义


On May 19, a group of Korean scientists published in the magazine Science the results of research that for the first time isolated human embryonic stem cell lines specifically tailored to match the DNA of male and female patients of various ages.	5月19日，一组韩国科学家在《科学》杂志上公布了第一次将分离的人类胚胎干细胞专用于与不同年龄男女病人的DNA相匹配的研究结果。


The next day, British scientists at Newcastle University announced that they had successfully produced a cloned human embryo using donated eggs and genetic material from stem cells.	第二天，英国新堡大学（Newcastle University）的科学家们就宣布他们已经用捐献的卵子和干细胞的遗传物质成功培育了一个人类胚胎。


Both breakthroughs constitute a stunning advance in stem cell research.	这两项突破成为了干细胞研究中令人瞩目的一个进步。


Embryonic stem cells are pluripotent, meaning that they have the ability to develop into any type of human tissue.	胚胎干细胞是多能干细胞，也就是说他们具有发育为任何一种人体组织的能力。


This carries great promise, in particular, for sufferers of spinal cord injuries and diseases.	这尤其给那些遭受脊髓损伤和脊髓疾病的人带来了巨大希望。


Years of studies, and the passionate pleas of patients worldwide, are finally opening the way to a technique – somatic cell nuclear transfer, also known as “therapeutic cloning” – that may bring about epochal changes for the health of us all.	多年来的研究，以及全世界各地患者的强烈请求，终于打开了一条通向体细胞核转移技术之路，也就是人们所知道的“治疗性克隆”——那也许会为我们所有人的健康带来跨时代的改变。


No less remarkable than the latest discoveries was the timing of their announcement, which came on the eve of a vote in the United States Congress to expand federal funding for research on embryonic stem cells created during in vitro fertilization (but never implanted in a womb).	与这个最新发现相比，他们的宣布时机也同样引人关注，就在美国国会就是否对体外受精（但从未植入子宫）过程中产生的胚胎干细胞的研究扩大联邦基金投票的那天晚上。


Both announcements also came a month ahead of an Italian referendum – the largest popular consultation on the matter ever held anywhere – that seeks to change a law adopted last year that prohibits both in vitro fertilization and stem cell research.	这两大宣布比意大利为寻求改变去年通过的禁止体外受精和干细胞研究的法律的全民公投早了一个月，意大利全民公投是一种颇为流行的、在最大范围内就发生在任何地方的任何事情进行协商的方式。


The debate over therapeutic cloning is, of course, hardly limited to the US and Italy.	有关治疗性克隆的争论当然不可能仅仅局限于美国和意大利。


The UN General Assembly ended a two-year debate on the matter in March 2005 by approving a non-binding declaration that calls upon states to “prohibit all forms of human cloning inasmuch as they are incompatible with human dignity and the protection of human life.”	联合国大会在2005年3月通过一个非约束力声明结束了一场两年之久的辩论，该声明呼吁各国“禁止所有形式的人类克隆，因为它们有损人类尊严，有违人类生命的安全。


The declaration passed with 84 votes in favor, 34 against, and 37 abstentions.	”这个声明以84票赞成，34票反对、37票弃权通过。


Last summer, in response to the UN decision, 78 Nobel laureates signed a petition discouraging the adoption of an international ban on human cloning, because “it would condemn hundreds of millions of individuals afflicted by debilitating diseases to a life deprived of hope.”	去年夏天，作为对联合国决定的反应，78位诺贝尔获奖者签署了一份请愿书，试图阻止全球性禁止人类克隆，因为“那将把不计其数受病痛折磨的人们宣判给一段被剥夺了希望的生活。


The petition, initiated by Luca Coscioni Association, an NGO devoted to the promotion of the freedom of scientific research, called on governments to reject prohibitions in favor of “rules that protect the right to life and health by ensuring freedom of research, choice, and knowledge.”	” 这项请愿由一个致力于保护科学研究自由的非政府组织Luca Coscioni协会发起，呼吁政府反对这种禁令，支持“通过确保研究、选择和知识自由来保护的生命和健康权利”。


There is, of course, widespread consensus against cloning devoted to the reproduction of human beings, and most of the world has outlawed the technique.	当然，舆论广泛反对用于复制人类的克隆，世界大部分国家已经立法宣布该技术为非法。


So this is not the issue.	因此，这不是争论的焦点。


The Nobelists’ point is that, as far as therapeutic cloning is concerned, rather than attempting global prohibition, it would be much wiser, and possibly more effective, to promote an international regulatory regime through ample legalization of stem cell research.	诺贝尔得奖者的观点是，就治疗性克隆而言，与其全球性禁止，更为明智、也许也能更为有效地促进国际性管理体制的方法是使干细胞研究得到充分的合法性。


But, as the UN declaration – and the long debate surrounding its adoption – illustrate, scientific arguments are not at the center of national and international debates, which revolve around questions concerning the beginning of “human life.”	但是，正如联合国声明——以及围绕是否应该通过这项声明的长期争论——所表明的那样，科学争论并非处于那些围绕着有关“人类生活”开端问题的国内和国际争论的中心。


As we know, science and religion offer different answers.	我们都知道，科学和宗教给出的是不同答案。


Some Christian theologians, for example, believe that life begins at conception, while scientists maintain that nerve and brain cells emerge around 14 days after conception.	例如，一些基督教神学家相信生命始于受孕，然而科学家们坚持神经和脑细胞在受孕后14天左右出现。


Scientists generally agree that research should be done within that period – and always allowed on spare embryos that will never be implanted.	科学家们普遍认为研究应该在那一段时间内完成——并且应当允许用余下的永不会被植入子宫的胚胎作研究。


In such a crucially important debate, the quality of the information offered is paramount, and it is no coincidence that those who oppose stem cell research prefer to avoid a public debate that would force them to confront scientific arguments.	在这样一场至关重要的辩论中，所提供的信息质量尤为关键，那些反对干细胞研究的人一定会避免一场将迫使他们面对科学辩论的公众讨论。


They know all too well that whenever a secular and scientific debate has been permitted and encouraged, the general public – regardless of nationality and religious or political affiliation – has overwhelmingly expressed itself in favor of stem cell research.	他们对所有一切太了解了，无论何时一场长期的科学辩论得到允许并受到鼓励，大众——无论何种国籍、宗教或政治关系——已经热烈地表达了他们对干细胞研究的支持。


We saw a clear example of this last November in California, where 60% of the electorate voted in favor of Proposition 71 on state funding for stem cell research.	去年十一月在加利福尼亚，我们就看到了这样一个明显的例子，那里60%的选民投票支持国家资助干细胞研究的第71号建议。


Similarly, the latest polls in Italy suggest that the overwhelming majority of those who intend to vote are in favor of therapeutic cloning.	同样地，意大利最近的民意测验也表明那些准备投赞成票的压倒性多数是支持治疗性克隆的。


However, a referendum in Italy requires 50% turnout to validate the outcome.	然而，在意大利投票率50%以上的公民投票才是有效的。


Revealingly, the Vatican, knowing that it cannot win, is currently campaigning strongly for mass abstention.	梵蒂冈很清楚它无法赢得这场公投，因此现在正在全力计划大规模的弃投。


More than the advancement of science is at stake here.	比起科学进步，这种危险性更大。


The Vatican’s stance on the Italian vote is emblematic of a broader threat to the very foundation of modern liberal democracy: the constitutional separation of Church and State.	梵蒂冈对意大��投票的态度代表了一种对现代自由民主基础——政教分离的更大的威胁：。


In an era of growing concern about religious fundamentalism, liberal democratic institutions must reaffirm their role in protecting individual rights for all.	在一个对宗教基要主义担忧不断加剧的时代，自由民主体制必须重申他们在保护人权方面的任务。


And, in order to enable the full enjoyment of our freedoms – be they of worship or scientific research – the state must reassert its secular nature.	并且，为了使我们能够充分享受自由——无论是信仰自由还是科学研究自由——国家都必须重申它的教廷本质。


We need mechanisms to address violations of moral or religious beliefs, but we cannot place restrictions on individuals’ ability to contribute to the public welfare.	我们需要一定的机制来揭露道德或宗教信仰的侵犯行为，但是我们不能限制个人对公众福利贡献的能力。


A Floor for the Renminbi	为人民币设定下限


BEIJING – The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) faces a dilemma.	北京—中国人民银行面临着两难。


After nearly a decade of trying to curb expectations of continued currency appreciation (spurred by China’s current- and capital-account surpluses), it finally succeeded in the first quarter of 2014, when its forceful market intervention drove down the renminbi’s exchange rate to discourage carry trades.	近十年来，它一直试图遏制人民币持续升值预期（受中国经常和资本项目盈余推动），终于在2014年一季度取得了成功，其强力市场干预拉低了人民币汇率，打击了套息交易。


Now, however, the PBOC is facing an even more difficult challenge, as seemingly irreversible depreciation expectations undermine economic stability at a moment when China can least afford additional uncertainty.	但是，如今，中国人民银行面临着一个更加艰巨的挑战——在中国最经不起不确定性增加的时候，看起来不可逆转的贬值预期正在破坏经济稳定。


Because the 2014 intervention coincided with the weakening of China’s economic fundamentals, it ultimately amounted to pushing on an opening door.	2014年的干预恰逢中国经济基本面转弱，因此它最终起到了推波助澜的作用。


Instead of providing credible resistance to upward pressure on the exchange rate, as intended, it triggered an outright reversal, with depreciation expectations beginning to creep into foreign-exchange markets.	它提供的不是可信的汇率升值压力抵抗力（这是它的初衷），而是引发了彻底的反转，贬值预期开始在外汇市场上愈演愈烈。


Thus, in the second quarter of 2014, China recorded a capital-account deficit for the first time in decades.	因此，2014年二季度，中国资本账户出现了数十年来的首次逆差。


And by the first quarter of 2015, that deficit more than offset the current-account surplus, meaning that China registered its first international balance-of-payments deficit in recent memory.	而在2015年一季度，这一逆差已经超出经常项目盈余，这意味着中国在近期首次出现国际收支逆差。


Nonetheless, given the size of China’s foreign-exchange reserves, markets remained confident that the PBOC could fix the renminbi exchange rate at whatever level it wanted, regardless of China’s external balance-of-payments position.	尽管如此，考虑到中国外汇储备的规模，市场仍有信心中国人民银行能够将汇率维持在任何它想要的水平上，不管中国的外部收支头寸如何。


As a result, depreciation expectations were not strong.	因此，贬值预期并不强烈。


Then, last August, the PBOC lowered the renminbi central parity rate by 1.9%, perhaps in response to an International Monetary Fund report encouraging China to align the parity rate more closely with the market rate.	接着，在去年8月，中国人民银行将人民币中间价调低1. 9%，这也许是为了回应IMF鼓励中国让人民币平价水平更接近市场汇率的报告。


The move roiled markets and intensified depreciation expectations.	这一举措扰乱了市场，加剧了贬值预期。


The PBOC quickly intervened to avert a panic by halting the depreciation, but it was too late: expectations of further renminbi weakening became firmly established in the market.	中国人民银行马上出手干预阻止贬值以避免恐慌，但为时已晚：人民币进一步走弱的预期已经在市场中稳固地建立起来。


As these expectations drive an increasing amount of capital out of China, thereby intensifying depreciation pressure, the PBOC continues to intervene in the foreign-exchange market, often in unpredictable ways (in order to discourage speculation).	这些预期让越来越多的资本逃离中国，从而加剧了贬值压力。 中国人民银行继续干预外汇市场——常常是以无法预料的方式（以阻止投机）。


As a result, the PBOC has de facto adopted a crawling-peg exchange-rate regime.	结果，中国人民银行事实上采取了爬行钉住汇率机制。


While a crawling-peg system can eliminate short-term depreciation expectations, thereby reducing the associated capital outflows, it cannot eliminate depreciation expectations in the more distant future, let alone reduce capital outflows unrelated to depreciation expectations.	爬行钉住制度能够解决短期贬值预期，从而降低相关的资本外流，但它无法解决较长未来的贬值预期，更不用说降低与贬值预期无关的资本外流了。


In fact, the crawling peg encourages some kinds of capital outflows, such as carry trade unwinding, the dollarization of household accounts, and withdrawal by portfolio investors.	事实上，爬行钉住鼓励某些类型的资本外流，如套息交易平仓、家庭账户美元化、组合投资者撤出等。


Meanwhile, China’s economic fundamentals continue to worsen.	与此同时，中国的经济基本面继续恶化。


All of this has forced the PBOC to spend a huge amount of China’s foreign-exchange reserves – more than $500 billion in 2015 alone – to keep the level of renminbi depreciation vis-à-vis the US dollar within 5%.	所有这些迫使中国人民银行消耗大量外汇储备——光是2015年就达到5,000亿美元之巨——将人民币兑美元贬值幅度控制在5%以内。


At this rate, those hard-earned foreign-exchange reserves will soon be exhausted.	按这个速度计算，这些得之不易的外汇储备很快就会耗尽。


That is not an option.	这不是一个可行的选项。


Recognizing the challenge at hand, the PBOC has been allowing the renminbi to fall, slowly but surely, since November.	中国人民银行认识到它所面临的挑战，从11月开始缓慢但无误地允许人民币贬值。


But while this “stealth devaluation” worked for a while, market participants decided at the beginning of this year to dump their renminbi again.	但尽管这一“隐形贬值”起了一时作用，但市场参与者从今年年初再次开始抛售人民币。