If only it were that easy.	要真是这样该多好。


If anything, Asia’s vulnerability to external shocks has intensified.	亚洲对外部冲击的脆弱性恶化了。


On the eve of the Great Recession of 2008-2009, exports had soared to a record 44% of combined GDP for Asia’s emerging markets – fully ten percentage points higher than the export share prevailing during Asia’s own crisis in 1997-1998.	在2008—2009年大衰退发生前夕出口占亚洲新兴市场整体GDP的比重上升到了44%，比1997—1998年亚洲危机时搞了整整十个百分点。


So, while post-crisis Asia focused in the 2000’s on repairing the financial vulnerabilities that had wreaked such havoc – namely, by amassing huge foreign-exchange reserves, turning current-account deficits into surpluses, and reducing its outsize exposure to short-term capital inflows – it failed to rebalance its economy’s macro structure.	因此，尽管危机之后的亚洲在21世纪的最初十年专注于修复给其带来巨灾的金融脆弱性——办法是囤积巨大的外汇储备，将经常项目赤字扭转为盈余，以及减少对短期资本流入的过度暴露——但并没有再平衡经济的宏观结构。


In fact, Asia became more reliant on exports and external demand for economic growth.	事实上，亚洲的经济增长变得更加依赖出口和外部需求了。


As a result, when the shock of 2008-2009 hit, every economy in the region either experienced a sharp slowdown or fell into outright recession.	结果，当2008—2009年的冲击袭来时，亚洲地区的所有经济体要么经历了严重减速，要么陷入了严重衰退。


A similar outcome cannot be ruled out in the months ahead.	这一幕在未来几个月内很可能会再次发生。


After tumbling sharply in 2008-2009, the export share of emerging Asia is back up to its earlier high of around 44% of GDP – leaving the region just as exposed to an external-demand shock today as it was heading into the subprime crisis three years ago.	新兴亚洲的出口占GDP比重在2008—2009年间出现了剧减，但现在又回到了早前44%的高度，也就是说，该地区对外部需求冲击的暴露在今天与在3年前次贷危机即将发生时一样大。


China – long the engine of the all-powerful Asian growth machine – typifies Asia’s potential vulnerability to such shocks from the developed economies.	中国——亚洲增长永动机的长期引擎——是亚洲对发达国家震荡潜在脆弱性的典型代表。


Indeed, Europe and the US, combined, accounted for fully 38% of total Chinese exports in 2010 – easily its two largest foreign markets.	事实上，欧洲和美国加起来占中国2010年出口总额的38%，是其最大的两个外国市场。


The recent data leave little doubt that Asia is now starting to feel the impact of the latest global shock.	最新数据确凿无疑地显示，亚洲正开始感到最近的全球震荡的冲击。


As was the case three years ago, China is leading the way, with annual export growth plummeting in October 2011, to 16%, from 31% in October 2010 – and likely to slow further in coming months.	与3年前相同，中国首当其冲，其年出口增长率从2010年10月的31%下降到了2011年10月的16%，未来数月可能进一步下降。


In Hong Kong, exports actually contracted by 3% in September – the first year-on-year decline in 23 months.	在香港，9月出口额实际上收缩了3%，23个月以来首次出现同比下降。


Similar trends are evident in sharply decelerating exports in Korea and Taiwan.	韩国和台湾也显示出了类似的出口大幅减速迹象。


Even in India – long thought to be among Asia’s most shock-resistant economies – annual export growth plunged from 44% in August 2011 to just 11% in October.	即使是长期以来被认为亚洲最能抵御冲击的经济体——印度，年出口增长也从2011年8月的44%下降到了10月的11%。


As was true three years ago, many hope for an Asian “decoupling” – that this high-flying region will be immune to global shocks.	与3年前一样，许多人希望亚洲来一次“脱钩”，让这一腾飞中的地区免于全球震荡的干扰。


But, with GDP growth now slowing across Asia, that hope appears to be wishful thinking.	但是，如今亚洲国家的GDP增长纷纷减速，这���愿望看起来只是一厢情愿。


The good news is that a powerful investment-led impetus should partly offset declining export growth and allow Asia’s landing to be soft rather than hard.	好消息是，强大的投资拉动势头可以部分地抵消出口增长下降，并让亚洲免于硬着陆，实现软着陆。


All bets would be off, however, in the event of a eurozone breakup and a full-blown European implosion.	但是，如果欧元区瓦解，欧洲危机全面爆发，亚洲的美好愿望也将随之破灭。


This is Asia’s second wake-up call in three years, and this time the region needs to take the warning seriously.	这是亚洲在3年内第二次听见警钟，这一回，亚洲需要认真对待了。


With the US, and now Europe, facing long roads to recovery, Asia’s emerging economies can no longer afford to count on solid growth in external demand from the advanced countries to sustain economic development.	美国，这次又加上了欧洲，均面临着漫漫复苏路，亚洲新兴经济体无法再将稳健增长建立在依靠发达国家的外部需求的基础上，以维系可持续经济发展了。


Unless they want to settle for slower growth, lagging labor absorption, and heightened risk of social instability, they must move aggressively to shift focus to the region’s own 3.5 billion consumers.	如果它们不想让增长减速，让劳动力迟迟得不到吸收，让社会不稳定风险与日俱增，那么他们就必须果断地将注意力转向该地区内部的35亿消费者。


The need for a consumer-led Asian rebalancing has never been greater.	消费拉动的亚洲再平衡才是最迫切的需要。


Another Balkan High Noon	另一个巴尔干如日中天


With the world focused on Iraq, North Korea, and a possible clash with Iran over nuclear weapons, Kosovo has fallen off the radar screen.	正当世界的目光集中在伊拉克、北朝鲜以及因核子武器而可能引发的与伊朗的冲突的时候，科索沃已经脱离了人们的视野。


That inattention will end soon; a decision about the province’s fate is looming.	这一无人过问的情况即将结束，而有关这一省份命运的决定即将做出。


The United States and its European friends have repeatedly stated their intent to make the difficult decision before the end of the year on whether to separate Kosovo from Serbia.	美国及其欧洲朋友们已经多次表明它们的打算，也就是在年底以前做出决定，是否将科索沃分离出塞尔维亚。


This decision – crucial to the future of an unstable region – will test Western determination and unity.	这一决定对于这一不稳定地区的前途至关重要，而且将会考验西方的决心和团结。


Negotiations this year in Vienna, brokered by the United Nations, showed that an agreed settlement between Serbia and Kosovo on “final status” will not happen.	今年，由联合国调停的维也纳谈判表明，不会实现塞尔维亚和科索沃之间有关“最终地位”问题的协商一致的和解方案。


Talks continue, but, as UN negotiator and former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari diplomatically told the Security Council, they are effectively dead.	谈判还在继续，但是，正如联合国谈判者及芬兰前总统阿赫蒂萨里以外交辞令所告诉安理会的那样，谈判实际上已经寿终正寝。


No Serbian leader will agree to Kosovo’s independence, because nationalism remains the dominant political force in the country.	没有一个塞尔维亚领导人会同意科索沃独立，因为，民族主义依然是这一国家占据统治地位的政治力量。


Indeed, Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, the apostle of Serbian nationalism, has been trying in every way to undermine Kosovo’s interim government.	实际上，塞尔维亚民族主义的鼓吹者、总理科什图尼察一直尽力试图削弱科索沃的临时政府。


He is rushing to hold a national referendum this month on a new constitution without serious parliamentary debate or the usual public education.	他正在迫不及待地在没有严肃的议会辩论和通常的公众教育的情况下在本月对新宪法举行全民公决。


The main purpose of his new constitution is its preamble, which enshrines Kosovo as an inalienable part of Serbia.	他的新宪法的主要目的就是其序言，这一序言宣布科索沃是塞尔维亚不可分割的一部分。


Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians have proclaimed that they will not accept any tie to Serbia, no matter how tenuous.	科索沃原住阿尔巴尼亚人已经宣布，他们不会接受任何与塞尔维亚的联系，无论这一联系有多么的脆弱。


Throughout the 1990’s, they virtually opted out of Serbian-run Kosovo by creating parallel institutions.	在整个九十年代，他们通过建立平行的机构实际上脱离了由塞尔维亚人治理的科索沃。


Their forced mass exodus in 1999 and NATO’s subsequent intervention, which ended Serbia’s rule and established a quasi-state under UN administration, has made anything other than independence intolerable.	1999年，他们强制大规模迁移，随后北约进行了干预，结果结束了塞尔维亚的统治并且建立了联合国管理下的准国家。 结果，唯有独立方能够让他们容忍。


Some time over the next month or two, the Balkan Contact Group — the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia – will consider Ahtisaari’s recommendations on Kosovo’s final status and possibly propose a solution to the Security Council, which must make the final decision.	下一两个月的某些时候，巴尔干联络小组，即美国、英国、法国、德国、意大利和俄国将会考虑阿赫蒂萨里有关科索沃最终地位问题的建议，并有可能向安理会提出方案。 最终决定必须由安理会做出。


In public, all Contact Group members have tried to leave the question of Kosovo’s final status open, but informally the US and some of its allies have told the two parties that they will propose independence this year.	在公开的场合下，所有联络小组的成员都试图让最终地位问题处于未决状态。 但是私下里，美国及其部分盟国告诉另外两方说它们将会在今年提议独立。


Some members of the Security Council – particularly Russia and China – are opposed to or skeptical of an imposed settlement, and few governments favor dividing up another country’s territory, however compelling the circumstances.	安理会的某些成员国，特别是俄国和中国反对强加解决方案，或者对此怀疑。 基本上没有国家赞成分割另一个国家的领土，而无论形势有多么迫切。


Whether the Security Council will approve independence largely depends on averting a Russian veto, which will require considerable diplomatic effort.	安理会是否批准独立将很大程度上取决于避免俄国投票反对，而这就要求大量的外交努力。


The nature of the independence bestowed is also important.	所赋予的独立的性质也是重要的。


An independent Kosovo must be secured and its minorities protected.	一个独立的科索沃必须得到安全，其少数民族必须得到保护。


Northern Kosovo, now largely under Belgrade’s control, must not be partitioned off in all but name.	现在，北科索沃很大程度上受到贝尔格莱德控制，因此，除了名义上以外，它无法分割出去。


In the interest of reducing the blow to Serbia, the Security Council must avoid granting independence in ways that are so contorted that the new state cannot effectively function.	为了降低对塞尔维亚的打击，安理会必须避免以严重扭曲的方式赋予科索沃独立，以至于新的国家无法运行。


If the Security Council fails to reach a decision on final status, it will produce a GRAVE situation: Kosovo would declare independence unilaterally, and all nations would have to make up their mind whether or not to recognize the new state.	如果安理会无法就最终地位问题做出决定，这就将会产生严重的局面。 那就是，科索沃将会单方面宣布独立，而所有的国家都不得不决定是否承认这一新的国家。


If that happens, it is likely that the Serbs of North Kosovo would declare their own independence.	如果这样的事情发生，北科索沃的塞尔维亚人就可能宣布他们也独立。


At a minimum, Serbia would campaign strongly against recognition.	至少，塞尔维亚将会大力反对承认。


In fact, Serbia’s government is already trying to persuade the West to postpone a decision until mid-2007.	实际上，塞尔维亚政府已经试图说服西方把决定推迟到2007年年中。


It claims that if Kosovo is granted independence, the ultranationalist Radical Party will come to power in the next elections, and believes that holding elections as early as this year will cause the Contact Group to delay a proposal to the Security Council.	它宣称，如果授予科索沃独立，极端民族主义的激进党将会在下一次的大选中上台； 它并且相信，在今年举行选举将会让联络小组推迟向安理会做出提议。


Moreover, the government has encouraged the leaders of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to threaten to hold their own referendum on separation from a still fragile Bosnia.	而且，该政府鼓励波斯尼亚的塞族共和国民主进步党的领导人威胁就有关从依旧脆弱的波斯尼亚分离举行自己的全民公决。


And they continue to push -- unsuccessfully -- for Ahtisaari’s removal in order to prolong the Vienna talks.	而且他们继续争取解除阿赫蒂萨里的职务以便拖延维也纳会谈，但是并未如愿。


The timing of the constitutional referendum appears to be a part of this delaying strategy.	宪法全民公决的时机看起来是推延策略的一部分。


Some hope that postponement will stimulate violence in Kosovo and further encourage Western reconsideration of independence.	有人希望，推迟决定将会激发科索沃的暴力并且进一步鼓励西方重新考虑独立事宜。


That tactic may be working.	这一战术可能正在奏效。


Many European Union countries are worried about the implications of taking away a country’s territory, as well as the impact of Kosovo’s independence on Serbian democracy.	许多欧盟国家担心夺走某国领土的含义，以及科索沃独立对塞尔维亚民主的影响。


Given Serbia’s political instability, they question the harm of a short-term postponement – albeit mostly self-inflicted.	鉴于塞尔维亚政治不稳定，他们质疑短期推迟所带来的损害，尽管大多数是自我造成的。


But delay only offers more room for Kostunica to find ways to make a Security Council decision more difficult.	但是，推迟只能够给科什图尼察更大的空间来寻找途径让安理会的决定更为困难。


The West must ignore Belgrade’s siren song.	西方必须不理睬贝尔格莱德的警告。


Serbian politics will be chaotic and unstable for the foreseeable future, and Serbian politicians will attempt to present this as an excuse to avoid facing the loss of Kosovo.	塞尔维亚政治在可以预见的将来将会是混乱不堪以及不稳定的。 塞尔维亚的政客们将力图以此作为避免面临失去科索沃的借口。


Likewise, there will be problems establishing ties between Serbia and Kosovo under any circumstances.	同样，在塞尔维亚和科索沃之间在任何情况下建立联系都存在问题。


But failure to proceed definitively now on Kosovo’s final status will produce a worse Balkan situation, one that blocks Serbia’s move toward the West and ultimate membership in the EU, condemns Kosovo’s ethnic minorities to dangerous ambiguity, and imperils fragile states like Bosnia and Macedonia.	但是，在科索沃的最终地位问题上裹足不前将会产生更为糟糕的巴尔干局势。 这一局面将会阻止塞尔维亚靠近西方并最终获得欧盟成员国资格，将科索沃的少数族裔至于危险的悬而未决的境地，并且破坏类似波斯尼亚和马其顿那些脆弱国家。


No realistic solution exists for Kosovo but independence.	除了独立以外，对于科索沃而言没有现实的解决方案。


If Serbia wants to join the West, it must not forsake that opportunity by trapping itself in its nationalist past.	如果塞尔维亚想要加入西方，它就不应当陷于其民族主义的过去而丧失机会。


Another BRIC in the Wall?	墙里的另一块“金砖”？


NEW YORK – Conventional wisdom rarely survives a good stress test, and few tests have been as stressful as that which the global economy has endured over the past 24 months. A healthy season of reappraisal has dawned, shining a new light on boom-time notions like the value of opaque markets, the untouchable status of the American consumer, or the wisdom of deregulation.	纽约——


One piece of bubble wisdom that has escaped relatively unscathed, however, is the assumption that the “BRIC” countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – will increasingly call the economic tune in years to come.	传统的智慧很难应对一个设计良好的压力测试。 在过去的24个月中，很少有这样的压力测试像全球经济经历了那次危机那样难以对付。


The BRIC notion, coined in a 2003 Goldman Sachs report, is not all bad: at 75% correct, it scores a good deal better than most economic prognostications of the day.	现在，一缕新的曙光正在刚刚出现，伴随着一些新理论的出现，这些理论包括晦涩的市场价格论，美国消费者不可动摇的地位轮，或是称为放松监管论等。


Yet the economic crisis that began in 2008 exposed one of the four as an impostor.	在本轮的泡沫经济中，有一种相对来说没受到冲击的理论，那就是所谓“金砖四国”的概念——巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国——在全球经济中越来越有分量。


Set the vital statistics of the BRIC economies side-by-side and it becomes painfully obvious that, in the words of the old Sesame Street game, “One of these things is not like the other.”	金砖四国的概念是高盛在2003年提出的，这个概念看起来不坏，至少75%的正确，它比当今社会的其他经济概念来的要准确一些。


The weakness of the Russian economy and its highly leveraged banks and corporations, in particular, which was masked in recent years by the windfall brought by spiking oil and gas prices, burst into full view as the global economy tumbled.	起于2008年的经济危机将四个中的一个打回原形。


Saddled with a rust-belt infrastructure, Russia further disqualifies itself with dysfunctional and revanchist politics and a demographic trend in near-terminal decline.	如果我们再仔细地一个一个分析金砖四国的经济数据，就会发现真相，正如老芝麻街游戏所说的那样：“他们之间各不相同。 ”


Even with the modest recovery in commodity prices over the past six months, Russia’s energy sector has experienced declining production in recent years, due in part to fears among foreign investors of expropriation.	俄罗斯经济的衰弱性及其本国银行和公司的高杠杆性被近些年来虚高的油价和天然气价格所掩盖。 但在本期全球经济大动荡中暴露无遗。


Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, integral in propping up an increasingly re-centralized economy, is being depleted fast. If negative trends continue, Russia’s reserve fund could eventually be exhausted.	背负着破败的重工业基础设施，加上运转失灵和复仇主义政治形态，与此同时，俄罗斯的人口也处于近乎下滑通道之中。


Russia’s fall back to earth, meanwhile, spawned a kind of parlor game among academics, foreign-policy wonks, and educated investors, aimed at replacing the country in the club of major emerging-market economies.	即使在过去6个月，商品价格有所回升，俄罗斯的能源产量近些年来还一直下滑，部分原因是害怕外资的介入。


A variety of acronyms has been suggested, from the cutesy BRICET (adding Eastern Europe and Turkey) to BRICKETs (the former plus South Korea) and – an even greater stretch – BRIMC, which shoehorns Mexico into the mix.	随着中央集权的进一步扩大，俄罗斯的主权财富基金正在濒临枯竭。 如果一直这么下去的话，俄罗斯的外汇储备最终也会消耗殆尽。


In all of these revisions, Russia survives, despite the writing on its economic wall.	关于俄经济的旧病复发，在学术界，研究对外政策的学究们和受过教育的投资者中引发了一场争论：是否增加新的国家进入新兴市场国家名单之中。


While Russia retains the world’s largest (if somewhat aging) arsenal of nuclear weapons, as well as a permanent seat (and thus veto power) on the UN Security Council, it is more sick than BRIC.	于是，各种不同的新名词纷纷出台，从BRICET（金砖四国加上东欧和土耳其）导BRICKETS（上述国家再加上韩国），甚至范围还要扩大——BRIMC，连墨西哥都要掺乎在里面。


Purely from the standpoint of economic potential and fundamentals, the case is far stronger for South Korea, a sophisticated economic power whose primary liability is the danger that the regime of its evil twin to the north will collapse and inundate it with hungry refugees.	主要是因为俄罗斯依然拥有世界上最大的核武器库（虽有武器的年头有点老。 ），同时在联合国安理会拥有常任理事国的席位（也就意味着拥有一票否决权。


The same is true of Turkey, with its robust banking sector, thriving domestic market, growing importance to Middle East and energy politics, NATO membership, European Union membership bid, and ties to ethnic cousins across Central Asia.	虽然受到邪恶的小兄弟北韩随时崩盘的危险，韩国坚实的经济实力随时准备接纳来自邻国的难民潮。 土耳其也有类似的情况：生机勃勃的银行业，发展势头强劲的国内市场，对中东和能源政策影响力日益增加。


Perhaps the most compelling case of all is that of Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim state, with a rapidly expanding middle class, relatively stable democratic politics, and an economy that has been a star performer in Asia despite the global recession.	恐怕最引人入胜的国家要数印度尼西亚了。 作为全世界最大的穆斯林国家，印尼中产阶级人数迅速增加，国内相对稳定的政局。


From an American perspective, Indonesia is an attractive alternative to Russia, which recently has vied with Venezuela for leadership of the “America in decline” cheering section.	在全球经济衰退的大背景下，印尼的经济在亚洲一枝独秀地成长。 对于美国来说，印尼比俄罗斯来说更具吸引力，而俄罗斯正在和委内瑞拉一起唱衰美国。


Indonesia, moreover, has shown resilience not only economically, but also as a nation.	印尼不仅仅从经济上来说，甚至从一个国家的层面来看，复兴的都更快一些。


In spite of its diverse ethnic makeup and far-flung island territory, the country has made a quick transition from military dictatorship and has recovered from myriad challenges and setbacks, including the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the tsunami in 2004, the emergence of radical Islam, and domestic unrest.	尽管民族成分复杂，岛屿众多，印尼正在迅速地从军事独裁国家转型，经过包括1997年的亚洲金融危机，2004年的海啸以及极端穆斯林有所抬头和国内政局动荡等多次的挑战和反复之后，国家正在复苏之中。


While Indonesia’s per capita GDP remains low, it is a country’s potential that matters in economic affairs, and here Indonesia shines.	虽然印尼的人均GDP还较低，但国家的经济潜力很大，印尼作为一个新星，正在冉冉地升起。


Indonesia depends less on exports than its Asian peers (let alone Russia), and its asset markets (timber, palm oil, and coal, in particular) have attracted major foreign investment.	和其他亚洲国家相比（更不用说俄罗斯了），印尼对对出口的依赖性较小。 本国丰富的原材料（包括木材，棕榈油，特别是煤炭）吸引了大量的外资。


The government in Jakarta, meanwhile, has taken a strong stand against corruption and moved to address structural problems.	雅加达的政府在反对腐败问题上立场鲜明，现在更加强调制度建设的重要性。


Even demographic trends favor Indonesia, which, with 230 million people, is already the fourth largest country in the world by population – a full Germany (80-plus million) larger than Russia.	印尼的人口结构也有优势，目前人口2. 3亿，是世界上第四大人口大国——相当于德国（八千多万）和俄罗斯人口加起来的总和。


But catchy ideas die hard, and Russia has moved to cement the current concept of the BRICs into an irreversible reality.	但观念一旦形成就很难修改。 俄罗斯已经成为金砖四国不可缺少的一部分。


The ossification of the BRICs into a	目前这个概念已经成为实际中的现实，在今年6月，这四个国家的领袖召开了第一次金砖四国会议。


That meeting produced a notable broadside against the United States, as each member declared its desire to unseat the dollar as the global reserve currency.	此次会议明显是冲着美国来的，四国一致同意将美元拉下本国外汇的主要币种。


A few months earlier, the four were moved to issue a joint communiqué ahead of the G-20 Summit in April noting their shared determination to change the rules of the global economic system.	几个月之前，四国在20国家峰会之前发表联合声明，誓言要改变全球经济体系的规则。


In the private sector, BRIC index funds have proliferated, though Goldman Sachs has radically hedged its own BRIC bet by introducing a second term – the “Next 11,” or N-11 – to the debate.	对于私营经济来说，金砖四国指数开始盛行，虽然高盛又引入了一个新的概念——“下一个11国”，这包括了孟加拉国，埃及，印度尼西亚，伊朗，墨西哥，尼日利亚，巴基斯坦，菲律宾，韩国，土耳其加上越南等11个国家，把他们也当做经济变化的晴雨表。


This grouping adds Bangladesh , Egypt , Indonesia , Iran , Mexico , Nigeria , Pakistan , the Philippines , South Korea , Turkey , and Vietnam to the economic radar, and, together with the four BRIC countries, probably comprises a more logical and defensible “first tier” of emerging economies.	加上先前的金砖四国，或许形成了一个更具有说服力的新兴国家“第一梯队”。


Russia sniffs at the idea of demotion, and American officials appear to have decided to steer clear of the semantic debate.	俄罗斯对自身被降级嗤之以鼻，美国官员也好像也要澄清这场口水战。


Still, it should surprise no one that Russia lobbied hard for the Yekaterinburg BRIC summit, and footed the bill for much of it as well. Why risk exposure too soon?	与此同时，俄罗斯却在积极筹划金砖四国的叶卡捷琳堡会议，同时抢着买单，难道危机这么快就来了么？


Another Buddha Destroyed	又一尊大佛被毁坏


NEW YORK -- The world watched in horror when Taliban forces destroyed the monumental Buddha statues in Bamiyan, Afghanistan in 2001.	纽约——2001年，阿富汗巴米杨不朽的大佛被塔利班军队摧毁使整个世界沉浸在一片恐怖的氛围中。


Political and cultural leaders from around the globe condemned the attacks.	来自世界各地的政治和文化领袖对袭击行为表示了谴责。


Offers of help poured in.	很多人主动要求提供帮助。


Everyone asked: will the world be ready next time?	每个人都在询问：如果再有这样的事情发生，世界是否做好了应对的准备？


Alas, the answer is a resounding “no.”	唉，回答是完全没有。


In northwest Pakistan’s Swat valley armed Islamist militants recently attacked one of the oldest and most important sculptures of Buddhist art.	在巴基斯坦西北部的斯瓦特河谷（Swat valley），全副武装的伊斯兰好战分子不久前袭击了佛教艺术中一尊最古老也是最重要的雕像。


Dating from around the beginning of the Christian era, and carved into a 130-foot-high rock, the seated image of the Buddha was second in importance in South Asia only to the Bamiyan Buddhas.	这尊雕像的历史可以追溯到基督教起源的年代，雕像取坐姿，通高130英尺，在南亚地区的重要性仅次于巴米杨大佛而位列第二。


This, moreover, was the second attack in less than a month.	不仅如此，这已经是一个月内发动的第二次袭击。


Murtaza Razvi of Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper has pointed out that the image that was attacked was not in a remote area.	巴基斯坦《黎明报》的Murtaza Razvi指出：这次遭受袭击的佛像并非位于偏远地区。


In fact, it was next to the central road that runs through the valley.	恰恰相反，它就坐落在穿过河谷中央的大路近旁。


Despite repeated requests by Pakistani archeologists to the local authorities to protect the seated Buddha and other sites, especially after the first attack, no action was taken.	尽管首次袭击发生之后，巴基斯坦考古学家一再呼吁当地政府保护坐佛和其他古迹，但政府却没有采取任何措施。


In fact, militants were able to carry out their work – drilling holes in the rock, filling them with explosives, and detonating them – in broad daylight.	事实上，好战分子有充足的时间完成破坏行动——在石像上打眼并填满炸药，而后将其引爆——而这一切破坏活动居然得以在光天化日之下从容进行。


They did this not once, but twice.	他们这样做不是一次，而是两次。


The first time, the image escaped heavy damage because of the militants’ incompetence.	第一次，大佛由于好战分子的失误并没有遭到严重的损坏。


The second time, they were more successful, destroying not only the sculpture’s face, but also its shoulders and feet.	而第二次，他们就幸运多了，不仅炸毁了大佛的脸部，而且毁坏了他的肩膀和脚。


As if that were not enough, there are now reports of a third attack. In 1995, I traveled through the Swat valley to study the area’s Buddhist treasures.	似乎这还不够，现在又有关于第三次袭击的报导。 1995年，我曾穿越斯瓦特河谷对佛教宝藏进行研究。


Carved in the cliff side or protected in small beautiful museums, these remarkable objects were the pride and joy of local Muslims, followers of the faith for more than a millennium.	这些令人叹为观止的文物或者雕刻在悬崖之上，或者收藏在美丽的小型博物馆中，为千百年来一直笃信佛教的当地穆斯林群众带去了快乐与骄傲。


As a non-Muslim, Indian woman, I was able to travel through the region without any fear and received warm support from local residents.	虽然我是一位非穆斯林的印度女性，但我却可以毫无惧怕地穿越整个地区，而且从当地居民那里得到了热情的援助。


People of all stripes welcomed me, and were often willing to take me to important Buddhist sites. Today, little over a decade later, the atmosphere is so poisoned that neither local community leaders nor the local police came forward to protect these monuments or claim them as their own.	所有派别的人们都欢迎我的到来，他们也愿意领我参观重要的佛教文物。 仅仅10年后，气氛已遭到如此的毒化，以至于当地的警方和居民领袖都不愿挺身而出保护这些有纪念意义的文物，也不敢主张它们的所有权。


Even sadder is that while Pakistani newspapers widely condemned these attacks and criticized local officials’ indifference, there has been almost no coverage in the international press.	更令人悲哀的是，尽管巴基斯坦报纸大范围地谴责袭击事件，批评当地官员的冷漠态度，但在国际媒体上却鲜有这方面的报导见诸报端。


Can it be that after the Iraq war, and the dismaying images of looting at the National Museum in Baghdad, we have lost our capacity to be outraged?	是不是在伊拉克战争以后，在巴格达国家博物馆令人惊讶的掠夺事件发生以后，我们已经失去了愤怒的能力？


Or is it that we have become so inured to bad news surrounding the war on terror that we have no desire to know more?	是不是我们已经在反恐战争的噩耗中变得麻木，不愿再去了解新发生的事情？


There is a vast number of important Buddhist sites in Swat and other areas of northwest Pakistan.	在斯瓦特河谷和巴基斯坦西北部有着大量重要的佛教文物。


At this point, all of them are under threat of destruction, thanks to the influential voice of the Islamist leader Mullah Fazlullah, whose father-in-law, Sufi Mohammad, founded one of the extremist orders.	就在此刻，由于伊斯兰领袖Mullah Fazlullah的巨大影响，所有这些文物都正面临着灭顶之灾。 Fazlullah是Sufi Mohammad的女婿，正是后者创建了伊斯兰教的极端派别。


This order was responsible for bringing more than 10,000 jihadi fighters to Afghanistan to fight alongside Taliban soldiers against the United States in 2001.	该教派曾把10，000多名吉哈德战士派往阿富汗，在2001年与塔利班军队一道与美军作战。


While Mohammad is believed to be languishing in a regional jail, Mullah Fazlullah operates with impunity, using the radio to spread a message of hatred and intolerance. It is time that the world community not only registers its outrage against such destruction of cultural treasures, but also joins those Pakistanis who are desperately trying to pressure their government to preserve – for their sake and ours – their pre-Islamic cultural heritage.	尽管据传Mohammad在一家小监狱里受苦受难，但Mullah Fazlullah却没有受到任何惩罚，而且一直利用电波传播着仇恨和偏狭的消息。 现在到了全世界人民不仅对此种破坏文物的丑行表示愤怒，而且与绝望地对政府施加压力，让政府为了他们、也为了我们，保护那些前伊斯兰时代的文化遗产的巴基斯坦人并肩作战的时候了。


If the world does not act this time, we risk losing one of the most precious legacies of early Buddhist history.	如果世界这次还不采取行动，我们就可能永远地失去早期佛教历史上最为珍贵的遗产。


Another Failed British Experiment	英国大选结果恐将拖累改革


FLORENCE – British politics has always been something of an experimental laboratory for the industrialized world.	佛罗伦萨——英国政治一向是发达国家中的试验场。


In the 1970’s, Britain was where the preeminent postwar model of how to manage the economy collapsed.	20世纪70年代，英国模式成为管理战后经济崩溃的典范。


That model had been based politically on the creation of consensus, and economically on Keynesian demand management.	该模式政治上的基础是凝聚共识，经济上的基础是凯恩斯主义需求管理。


Today, the equivalent collapse has been of the “regulation-lite” regime in which a party that styled itself as “New Labour” accepted a powerful role for markets – particularly for largely deregulated financial markets.	如今，在我们眼前崩溃掉的是“轻监管”体制，在该体制盛行时期，把自己包装成“新工党”的那个政党接受了大市场模式，尤其是大范围地放松了对金融市场的监管。


In the 1960’s, Keynesian policies delivered the illusion that everyone was benefiting, with high levels of employment and significant wage growth.	20世纪60年代，凯恩斯主义经济政策营造出一种人人受益的幻影：高就业水平、高工资增长；


Britain was the coolest place on earth, boasting the Beatles and the Rolling Stones and the pastel fashions of Carnaby Street.	英伦三岛成了地球上最酷的地方，披头士、滚石乐队、嘉纳碧街（Carnaby Street）上的粉彩风（pastal fashions），无不令人目眩神迷。


But Keynesianism involved continued fiscal expansion, with no offsetting monetary contraction.	然而，凯恩斯主义搞的是持续不断的财政扩张，却不用货币紧缩来抵消它的副作用。


By the 1970’s, it had brought to the United Kingdom large and ultimately unsustainable current-account deficits, high levels of inflation, and then political gridlock over what to do.	到了20世纪70年代，这一套办法终于给英国带来种种苦果：国际收支经常项目下不可持续的巨额赤字、高涨的通货膨胀水平以及在当务之急问题上的政治死结。


Which group should be the first to make a sacrifice?	哪个社会群体该为全民利益第一个作出牺牲？


In early 1974, Edward Heath’s Conservative government was locked in a struggle with the powerful coal miners’ union over “who rules Britain.”	1974年初，爱德华·希思（Edward Heath）的保守党内阁跟势力很大的煤炭工会为了“谁统治英国”而缠斗不休。


He called a premature election in February, in which there was no clear winner.	2月，他要求提前举行议会大选，选举结果却没有一个是赢家。


Heath was deeply unpopular.	希思的支持率落到谷底。


But the opposition Labour Party was not convincing either, and had little in the way of an intellectual alternative.	反对党工党也乏善可陈，提不出足以代替保守党路线的纲领。


It simply sought to avoid confrontation with the unions.	它只想避免同工会发生正面冲突。


The election produced a political stalemate.	大选使英国政治陷入僵局。


The centrist Liberal Democrats appeared to hold the balance of power, and stories circulated of how Heath was prepared to concede a reformed voting system. He held out the promise of proportional representation, which would ensure a greater number of parliamentary seats for the Liberal Democrats in future elections, in exchange for the party’s support for a new Conservative government.	中间派自由民主党最初采取均势策略，坊间则传言希思准备推动选举制度改革，说他许诺建立比例代表制，方便自由民主党在未来大选中获取更多议席，以换取后者支持保守党重新组阁。


There appears to be an overwhelming likelihood that the 1974 stalemate will be repeated in the upcoming general election on May 6.	今年5月6日的英国大选极有可能再度导致1974年那样的僵局。


The political maneuvering has already started, with the unpopular incumbent prime minister, Gordon Brown, today’s equivalent of Heath, bidding for the Liberal Democrats’ support by promising a constitutional reform that would give the party major advantages.	政治交易已在酝酿之中，不受欢迎的现任首相戈登·布朗（Gordon Brown）相当于当年希思的那个角色，他正在向自由民主党暗送秋波，承诺推动宪法改革，给这个第三大党更多好处。


In 1974, the touted Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition never materialized, as the Liberal Democrats were wary of hitching their fortunes to an unpopular and discredited politician.	1974年的时候，人们谈得很多的保守党—自民党联盟并没有最终形成，因为自由民主党不愿把自己的命运跟一位不受欢迎、信誉扫地的政治家拴在一起。


The result was a minority government that struggled for support and legitimacy, and in the end offered only policies that provided no real answer to the country’s underlying problems.	结果诞生了一个少数派内阁，它得不停地为取得支持率与合法性而苦苦挣扎，最终只能出台一些不痛不痒的政策，丝毫没有触及英国深层次的问题。


Britain today resembles 1974 much more than it resembles 1979, when the Thatcher revolution set the country on a new path.	今日英国的局面更像1974年，而不像1979年，那一年，撒切尔革命把这个国家带上了一条新的轨道。


There is again a major economic problem, the end of a credit-driven boom, and a threat to the banks (except that it all looks much bigger, owing to the financial system’s massive growth and internationalization).	如今，经济上也面临大问题——信贷驱动的泡沫破灭了，银行业岌岌可危（唯一的差别是，由于金融体系的大幅扩张和国际化，如今的银行规模大得多）。


Both major political parties look tired, and at the same time as if they are competing to imitate each other.	两大政党都暴露出疲态，似乎在争相模仿对手。


The choice appalls voters.	这样的选择让选民意兴阑珊。


There is also an ominous resemblance to Italy in 1992, when both major parties of the previous 40 years, the Christian Democrats and the Communists, simply melted away in a mixture of corruption and intellectual failure.	还可以类比1992年的意大利政局，当年，主导意大利政坛40年的两大党——基督教民主党和意大利共产党，由于腐败和思想上的贫乏，居然双双失势。


In the 2000’s boom, as in the 1960’s, it looked as if everyone could live on the never-never.	21世纪头十年的经济繁荣，同20世纪60年代一样，看上去人人都像活在童话里一般。


In 1960’s, it was counter-cyclical fiscal policy that held out the promise of prosperity for all; in the 2000’s, it was that individuals rather than the state piled up debt.	20世纪60年代，反周期财政政策许下全面繁荣的诺言； 21世纪头十年，令人们产生幻想的换成了个人负债消费，而不是政府赤字财政。


The magic of markets made possible an individualization of borrowing and consumption.	金融市场的魔术使借债和消费的个人化得以可能。


As in the meltdown of the 1970’s, it is easy to see how everyone benefited from the recent boom: homeowners saw their houses rising in price, social-welfare payments were expanded, and people seemed swept up in a new wave of 1960’s-style “Cool Britannia.”	同20世纪70年代时一样，今日的经济崩溃，也令所谓“人人受益”的方式显露无遗：房产所有者看到房价上涨、社会福利覆盖面有所扩大、人们陶醉在一波类似20世纪60年代“酷英伦”的潮流之中。


But now, as then, Britain’s future is bleak and overshadowed by debt.	但是也正如70年代一样，今日英国的未来注定坎坷，而且还笼罩在债台高筑的阴影之下。


Major adjustments are needed.	大力整顿是当务之急。


At the same time, the main parties find it hard to address the country’s problems, because they are reluctant to call for sacrifice before an election.	然而就在此时，两大政党都感觉难以直面问题，因为谁都不敢在大选前呼吁民众为国牺牲。


And, because the party programs of the Labour government and the Conservative opposition are not clearly distinguishable, they find it hard to differentiate themselves from the Liberal Democrats.	而且，工党政府和反对党保���党双方的纲领颇显雷同，都在往自由民主党的立场上靠。


Both major parties are appealing to the political center, but they will never be as convincing as a political party that really is in the political center, and that is unencumbered by the scandals attached to the past exercise of power.	两大党都在争取中间选民，但是在这一点上它们没法儿比原本就是中间政党的自民党做得更好，何况后者向来在野，不像两大党那样饱受腐败丑闻的困扰。


The course of the electoral struggle so far indicates that the Liberal Democrats will do very well.	到目前为止的竞选趋势表明，自由民主党成绩异常出色。


Their leader outshines his Conservative and Labour counterparts in television debates and on the campaign trail.	在电视辩论中，自民党党魁的光芒盖过了其他两大党的党魁。


Moreover, Labour and the Conservatives are in a political trap.	此外，工党和保守党都陷入了一个政治陷阱。


The moment they start to disagree with the Liberal Democrats, they will make themselves look extreme and will forfeit voter sympathies.	一旦他们反对自民党的立场，他们就显得走了极端，从而失去了选民的好感。


But this demand for political moderation impedes the search for the radical and painful solutions that Britain needs.	然而，这种一味求稳的政治气候会妨碍英国寻找大刀阔斧的改革之道，而那才是英国所急需的东西。


Little wonder, then, that currency markets are treating the likely outcome in Britain – a hung parliament, with no clear majority for any party – as a repeat of the mid-1970’s, with no clear solution to the country’s underlying economic problems on offer.	大选的结果很可能是产生一个扯皮议会，没有一个政党获得显著多数，就像20世纪70年代那样，对英国的深层次问题碌碌无为，难怪国际货币市场的反应，同20世纪70年代中期如出一辙。


Another Roller Coaster Ride for Exchange Rates in 2009?	2009年的汇率将又会大起大落吗？


CAMBRIDGE – 2008 has been an exceptionally tumultuous year for exchange rates.	坎布里奇-2008年是汇率非常动荡的一年。


The American dollar soared, the Japanese yen went into orbit, the euro fell to earth, and the British pound crashed, leaving a giant crater.	美元的上涨，日元的进入轨道，欧元的回落，和英镑的惨跌，这一切捅了一个大窟窿。


Emerging-market currencies were hammered, as were “commodity currencies” such as the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, and the South African rand.	和加拿大元、澳大利亚元、新西兰元和南非兰特等“商品货币” 一样，新兴市场国家的货币受到打击。


Indeed, the currency of any country that is significantly dependent on commodity exports has suffered.	实际上，每个在很大程度上依赖于商品出口国家的货币，都受到影响。


So, what will the New Year bring for exchange rates?	那么，明年的汇率将会是怎样？


While the only safe bet is continuing high volatility, we are at an unusual juncture where the short- and long-term trends appear to be very different.	虽然只有持续的高波动性是安全的赌注，但我们正处于一个不寻常的时刻，短期和长期趋势似乎是非常不同的。


In the short run, the yen and the dollar continue to benefit from a flight to safety, as panicked investors seek a place to hide.	从短期来看，日元和美元继续受益于大众对风险的逃避，因为惊慌的投资者需要寻求藏身之地。


The yen and dollar are also being bolstered as central banks elsewhere continue to cut interest rates towards zero, territory that the yen and dollar policy rates already occupy.	当其它国家的央行继续把利率下调至微乎其微的地步之时，日元和美元因此正在升值，而日元和美元的利率政策已经占据了这个区域。


Thus, even though the United States and Japan will not be raising interest rates anytime soon, lower foreign rates still make the dollar and yen relatively more attractive.	因此，尽管美国和日本短期内将不会提高利率，更低的外国利率仍使美元和日元相对更具吸引力。


Commodity prices will continue to be soft, pulling down commodity currencies, and bolstering the yen especially, since resource-poor Japan is so reliant on commodity imports.	商品价格将继续疲软，会拖累商品货币，尤其会支撑日元，因为资源贫乏的日本是如此依赖于商品进口。


Normally, short-run and long-run exchange-rate trends point in the same direction.	通常情况下，短期和长期汇率趋势的方向是一致的。


Indeed, a huge body of research shows that for most major currencies, the best forecast of next week’s exchange rate, next month’s exchange rate, or even next year’s exchange rate is simply today’s exchange rate.	事实上，大量研究表明，对大多数主要货币来说，对下周的汇率、下个月的汇率、或甚至明年的汇率最准确的预测，就是保持今天的汇率不变。


But times are hardly normal.	但市道很难正常。


The continuing financial crisis is putting steady upward pressure on the dollar thanks to its safe haven status.	由于美元其避风港的地位，持续的财政危机正对美元造成稳步上升的压力。


Commodity prices are plumbing new depths.	商品价格还在探底。


Yet the financial crisis will eventually end, as will the global recession.	然而，金融危机终将结束，全球经济衰退也将结束。


Neither will end soon, mind you, perhaps not for another seven or eight months, if not longer.	而你要知道，两者都不会很快结束，再拖7个或8个月也是有可能，如果不是更久的话。


But, when more normal growth does resume, the recent trends underpinning dollar and yen appreciation will disappear.	但是，当更为正常的增长真的恢复的时候，近来支撑美元和日元升值的趋势将会消失。


Perhaps international investors will be grateful to the US for its aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus, which will accelerate sharply when President-elect Barack Obama takes office on January 20.	国际投资者也许会感谢美国激进的货币和财政刺激，这样的政策在当选总统奥巴马1月20日上任后将大幅加速。


But investors will still worry about what happens when the bills come due.	但投资者仍担心钱真的投进去时会发生什么情况。


Many emerging markets will also want to engage in countercyclical macroeconomic policy, but they are hemmed in by concerns of fiscal sustainability and fear of rampant inflation.	许多新兴市场也将想要介入反周期的宏观经济政策，但对财政的连续性的担心和对大幅度通货膨胀的恐惧，使他们被捆住了手脚。


European fiscal policy is constrained by the Maastricht Treaty, while European monetary policy is rather single-mindedly devoted to price stability.ampnbsp;	欧洲的财政政策被马斯特里赫特条约限制住了，而欧洲的货币政策则专注于稳定物价。


True, China, with its vast foreign exchange reserves, has the wherewithal to spend as much on countercyclical macroeconomic policy as anyone.	诚然，中国因其庞大的外汇储备，它和其它国家一样有钱来花在反宏观经济政策上。


But China’s rulers know that their highly repressed banking system is vulnerable as the country continues to pursue gradual financial liberalization, and that foreign currency reserves may be needed for recapitalization.	但是，中国的统治者们知道，国家在继续推行渐进的金融自由化过程中，中国高度受压抑的银行体系是脆弱的，其外汇储备可能要用来进行资本额调整。


Thus perhaps no region will be as expansionary as the US.	因此，也许没有一个地区将和美国一样具有扩张性。


For the moment, global investors cannot get enough of US treasury bills, as collapsing interest rates for short-term US securities demonstrates.	目前，全球投资者得不到足够的美国国库券，美国短期债券的利率的猛跌证明了这一点。


But a lot of this demand is driven by short-term, crisis-fueled fear.	但是，这种需求的大部分是短期性的并由对危机的恐惧所引发的。


As markets normalize, surely investors will look around and realize that the US has vastly increased its debt in fighting the downturn, possibly by several trillion dollars.	当市场趋于正常之时，投资者肯定会环顾四周，并意识到美国为了抗击经济衰退已经大大增加了其债务，增量可能达到数万亿美元。


At the same time, today’s falling prices (or “deflation”) will eventually morph into inflation as aggressive monetary easing takes its toll on price stability.	与此同时，随着大胆的银根放松政策对价格稳定所造成的破坏，今天的物价的下降（或“通缩” ）最终将演变为通胀。


Admittedly, some of the major currency’s movements during the past year can be regarded as normalizing.	诚然，一些主要货币在过去一年中的变动可被视为正常化。


On a purchasing power basis (a crude measure of what different currencies can buy in terms of real goods), the euro was absurdly overvalued at $1.60, just as the yen was absurdly undervalued at over ¥120 to the dollar.	在购买力基础（一种衡量不同货币可以购买实际货物的基本标准）上 ，欧元被荒唐地高估在1. 60美元上，而日元则被荒唐地低估在一美元兑120日元以上。


Commodity currencies had to come off their meteoric highs.	而商品货币也不得不从其戏剧性的高度跌下。


Thus, the past year’s currency alignments have, to some extent, simply brought relative domestic price levels and exchange rates into better balance.	因此，过去一年中货币的调整就是在一定程度上使国内相对价格水准和汇率之间达到了更好的平衡。


But by now, emerging-market countries’ exchange rates, and even more so commodity currencies, have probably overshot on the downside.ampnbsp;	但现在，新兴市场国家的汇率可能已经下跌过度，而商品货币更是这样。


Over the long run, globalization and economic convergence will resume, and emerging market and commodity currencies will have to strengthen.	从长远来看，全球化和经济融合将重新推进，而新兴市场和商品货币将必定走强。


At the same time, the prospect of higher US inflation and massively higher US public debt levels must eventually weigh on the dollar, as does the still worrisome US trade deficit.	与此同时，更高的美国通胀率和美国大规模的更高水准的公债的前景最终必将对美元加压，就像仍然令人担忧的美国贸易赤字一样。


As for the yen, it, too, will suffer from the continuing rise in Japan’s public debt levels, which are already among the highest in the world.	至于日元，它也将随着日本的公债水准的持续上升而遭受打击，日本的公债已经列入全世界最高水准了。


Continuing weakness in the Japanese economy will eventually hit the yen.	持续疲软的日本经济最终将打击日元。


If today’s constellation of exchange rates represents some excessive dollar and yen appreciation, especially against emerging-market currencies, when it will unwind?	如果今天的一些列汇率代表了美元和日元对于尤其是新兴市场的货币的升值过度，那么什么时候会缓解下来呢？


That depends on when you think the financial crisis will abate, and the timing of that is as hard to predict as exchange rates.	这取决于你认为什么时候金融危机将得到缓解，而这和汇率一样很难预测。


But come it will.	但是，它终会到来。


Then watch for the dollar and yen to boomerang.	然后你就等着看美元和日元自食其果吧。


Answering Iran	回应伊朗


NEW YORK – We know quite a bit about Iran’s nuclear program, and what we know is not encouraging.	纽约——我们对伊朗的核计划有所了解，我们也知道不能加以鼓励。


Iran is reported to be enriching uranium at two sites – some of it to levels of 20%, far beyond what is required for civilian purposes.	据报道，伊朗有两个地方在浓缩铀——其中一些浓度达到了20%，远远超过了民用所需的浓度。


The International Atomic Energy Agency also reports that Iran is carrying out research to develop designs for nuclear warheads.	国际原子能机构也报道说，伊朗正在研究设计核弹头。


In short, Iranian officials’ claims that their nuclear program is aimed solely at power generation or medical research lacks all plausibility.	简而言之，伊朗的官员称，他们的核计划只是用于发电或医学研究，这一点说服力都没有。


Yet there is still much that the world does not know.	然而，世界还是有很多东西不知道。


For example, we do not know whether Iran is conducting secret activities at undisclosed sites, or when Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon, with estimates ranging from several months to several years.	比如，我们不知道伊朗是否在未遭披露的地方进行秘密的活动，伊朗何时能研发出粗糙的核武器，据估计是在几个月到几年之间。


We also do not know whether Iran’s divided leadership has decided to develop nuclear weapons, or to stop just short, calculating that the country could derive many of the benefits of possessing nuclear weapons without running the risks or incurring the costs of actually doing so.	我们也不知道伊朗四分五裂的领导层是否已经决定研发核武器，还是只是暂时停一段时间，算计着本国可以在获取核武器的过程中获得许多好处，又不用承受真正获得核武器后的风险和代价。


Either way, Iran’s activities confront the world with difficult choices.	无论是哪种情况，伊朗的活动都让世界面临艰难的选择。


None is costless or risk-free.	所有选择都是有代价和风险的。


Moreover, neither the costs nor the risks are possible to calculate with precision.	此外，代价和风险都不可能准确计算。


One option would be to accept and live with a nuclear or near-nuclear Iran.	一种选择是接受拥核或接近拥核的伊朗并与之相处。


This assumes that Iran could be deterred from using its weapons, much as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War.	这样做的前提是能够威慑住伊朗不使用核武器，正如冷战期间苏联一样。


Missile defenses could be expanded; the United States could extend security guarantees so that Iran would understand that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would be met with a decisive American response.	扩展导弹防御，美国能够增强安全保障，让伊朗明白用核武器威胁或使用核武器，美国将坚定加以回应。


But there are significant drawbacks to acquiescing to a nuclear-armed Iran.	但是默许伊朗拥核具有巨大的缺陷。


Given its use of subversion and terrorism against its adversaries, a nuclear-armed Iran might be even more assertive.	鉴于伊朗对其对手采取颠覆和恐怖活动，拥核的伊朗可能会更加咄咄逼人。


It might also transfer nuclear-related material, technology, or weapons to allies (Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela, for example) or radical organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas.	伊朗还可能将与核相关的材料、技术或武器转让给盟友（比如委内瑞拉的乌戈•查韦斯）或激进组织，比如真主党和哈马斯。


And, rather than promoting caution and stability in the region, Iran or Israel could be tempted to strike first in a crisis.	这样非但无助于该地区各国更加谨慎和稳定，伊朗或以色列可能在危机中率先发动袭击。


Nor can it be assumed that Iran’s divided and radical leadership would always act rationally, or that proliferation would stop with the Islamic Republic.	我们也不能认为，伊朗四分五裂和激进的领导层常常会理智地采取行动，核扩散会仅限于伊斯兰共和国。


If Iran develops its nuclear weapons, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt would be tempted to purchase or develop nuclear weapons of their own.	如果伊朗研发了核武器，沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和埃及等国也会购买或研发自己的核武器。


A Middle East with multiple fingers on multiple triggers is as good a definition of a nightmare as there is.	中东战事一触即发是噩梦最好的写照。


At the opposite end of the spectrum of policy choices is a preventive attack: a military strike (most likely by Israel, the US, or both) against sites in Iran associated with its nuclear program.	另一个相反的政策选项是防御性的攻击：对伊朗境内与核计划相关的基地发动军事进攻（最有可能由以色列、美国或两国一起发动攻击。


The core objective would be to interrupt the emergence of a threat that is still gathering.	）。 其核心目标是阻碍仍在聚集的威胁出现。


Here, again, there are considerable drawbacks.	不过这个选项也有很大的缺陷。


Even a successful preventive attack would at most set back Iran’s nuclear program a few years.	即使是成功的防御性攻击也至多只能将伊朗的核计划推迟几年。


It would almost certainly be rebuilt, presumably in underground, fortified sites that would make future attacks far more difficult to carry out.	伊朗几乎肯定会重建基地，可能会建到地下，加固基地从而使发动未来的袭击困难得多。


Moreover, Iran could well retaliate immediately against targets that could include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other US interests worldwide – as well as sites on American territory.	此外，伊朗很可能立即对目标进行报复，这些目标包括沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、阿富汗以及世界上其他存在美国利益的地方，还有美国本土。


Hezbollah could attack Israel.	真主党可能会攻击以色列。


If all of this happened, the price of oil would skyrocket owing to shortages and fears, possibly driving much of the world economy, already in a precarious position, into recession.	如果这一切真发生了，由于石油短缺和恐惧，石油价格将扶摇直上，可能导致许多已经摇摇欲坠的世界经济体陷入衰退。


An armed attack could also cause the Iranian public to rally around the government, reducing the chances that a more responsible leadership might emerge.	军事袭击也可能导致伊朗人民团结在政府的周围，降低出现更富责任领导层的可能性。


It thus comes as little surprise that the US and much of the world have explored alternatives, including regime change in Iran.	因此，美国和世界上的许多国家都在探寻其他选择，其中包括伊朗的政权更迭，这也不足为奇。


But, however desirable that might be, no policy can assuredly bring it about.	然而，虽然这有可能实现，但是没有政策可以确保伊朗发生政权更迭。


As a result, the principal policy toward Iran centers on the imposition of increasingly painful economic sanctions.	所以，针对伊朗的主要政策还是强制实行日益严厉的经济制裁。


The rationale underlying this policy is that Iran’s leaders, fearful of losing political control as popular discontent increases over the sanctions’ effects, will recalculate the costs and benefits of their nuclear activities and become receptive to negotiated constraints in exchange for removal of sanctions.	这项政策的原理是，随着人们对制裁带来的影响日益不满，伊朗领导人会担心在政治上失去控制，进而重新盘算进行核活动的利弊，为了消除制裁接受谈判中的约束条件。


That could happen.	这有可能实现。


International support for sanctions is considerable and increasing.	国际社会越来越支持制裁措施。


It is becoming more difficult for Iran (whose economy depends to a large extent on oil exports of more than two million barrels a day) to find customers – and especially customers willing to pay full price.	伊朗（伊朗的经济在很大程度上依靠每天200多万桶石油的出口）寻找买家——尤其是愿意支付全价的买家——越来越难。


Meanwhile, Iran’s currency is weakening, pricing imported goods out of many Iranians’ reach.	与此同时，伊朗的货币在贬值，导致许多伊朗人买不起进口产品。


Additional elements of current policy that seem to be having an effect are clandestine efforts aimed at impeding Iran’s ability to import sensitive technologies.	当前政策的一些辅助性成分似乎产生了影响，这些辅助性成分是一些暗中的努力，旨在减弱伊朗进口敏感技术的能力。


Viruses have infiltrated computers in Iran, reducing the efficiency of the centrifuges central to enriching uranium.	病毒已经入侵伊朗的计算机，降低浓缩铀至关重要的离心分离机的效率。


It is also possible that the assassination of selected individuals has slowed the advance of Iranian nuclear efforts.	个别人员遭暗杀也可能减缓了伊朗核计划的进程。


But slowing Iran’s efforts is not the same as stopping them.	但是阻碍伊朗的努力与迫使伊朗停止核计划不是一回事。


So one question is whether existing sanctions can be extended and tightened; here, China and Russia must determine their priorities.	因此出现了现有的制裁是否应该更加广泛、更加严厉的问题； 在这方面，中国和俄罗斯必须决定其优先任务。


Another question is whether any sanctions will be enough to persuade Iran’s leaders to accept verifiable limits on their nuclear program.	另一个问题是制裁是否足以说服伊朗领导人接受可作证的限制条件，限制其核计划。


And a third unsettled issue is how long Israel or the US will tolerate Iranian efforts before striking militarily.	第三个未解决的问题是在发动军事袭击之前，以色列或美国还能忍受伊朗的核计划多久。


Indeed, the only certainty may be that Iran’s nuclear program will be a major international issue in 2012 – quite possibly the most important one.	实际上，或许唯一可以确定的是伊朗的核计划将成为2012年的一个重要国际问题——很可能成为最重要的国际问题。


Birth in a Time of Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria	耐药菌时代的婴儿出生


GENEVA/NEW YORK – King Henry VIII, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and Mary Shelley, author of Frankenstein, all lost their mothers to infections following childbirth, and literature abounds with tragic stories of maternal death, from A Christmas Carol to Wuthering Heights, Far From the Madding Crowd, A Farewell to Arms, Revolutionary Road, Lolita, and Harry Potter.	日内瓦/纽约——亨利八世国王、让·雅克·卢梭、玛丽·雪莱、《弗兰肯斯坦》一书的作者都因分娩感染失去了母亲，而文学作品中产妇死亡的故事比比皆是，从《圣诞颂歌》到《呼啸山庄》、《远离尘世》、《永别了，武器》、《革命之路》、《洛丽塔》和《哈利·波特》。


But maternal and infant mortality is not confined to the past, much less to fiction.	但产妇和婴儿死亡不仅发生在过去，更不止发生在小说当中。


More than 30,000 women and 400,000 newborns die each year from infections around the time of birth.	每年死于出生感染的有40多万新生儿和30多万妇女。


Most of these deaths occur in low-income countries, and the situation will only worsen as the antibiotics available for treating infections become less effective, owing to the emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.	这样的死亡多数发生在低收入国家，而且随着治疗感染的抗生素随耐药菌的出现效力越来越差，情况只会变得越来越严重。


According to current estimates, more than 200,000 newborns die each year from infections that do not respond to available drugs.	根据目前的统计，每年超过200,000新生儿死于不对现有药物产生任何反应的感染。


And studies using data from larger hospitals – where microbes are more likely to develop antibiotic resistance – estimate that about 40% of infections in newborns resist standard treatments.	而大医院数据研究——微生物在大医院里更容易产生耐药性——估计约40%的新生儿感染对标准治疗不产生反应。


Childbirth can be risky.	分娩有风险。


Infants – especially if they are premature – do not have fully developed immune systems, so they are more susceptible to illnesses, either from bugs their mother is already carrying, or from infections they pick up in the hospital.	婴幼儿——特别是早产婴幼儿——不具备发育完全的免疫系统，因此无论感染来自母体还是医院，他们都更容易患上疾病。


That likelihood naturally increases when health facilities lack toilets, running water, and other basic sanitary conditions, as is often the case in low-income countries.	就像低收入国家一样，如果卫生机构缺乏厕所、自来水和其它基本卫生条件，感染几率自然就会上升。


While these countries have made some progress, through clean-water and sanitation initiatives, immunization, and antibiotic use, the gains are fragile.	尽管这些国家已经通过清洁用水和卫生措施、免疫和抗生素应用取得了一些进展，但这样的进步依然非常脆弱。


In high-income countries, maternal and infant mortality is now rare, owing to a century of improvements in hygiene and infection control.	在高收入国家，经过一个世纪的卫生和感染控制改进，孕产妇和婴儿死亡目前已经非常罕见了。


For example, when antibacterial sulphonamides became available after 1934, infections could be treated quickly and easily on the spot, and mortality rates plummeted.	举例来讲，当磺胺类抗菌药在1934年得到应用后，人们可以方便迅速地现场治疗感染，死亡率也因此出现大幅下降。


However, antibiotics’ effectiveness led many healthcare providers to overprescribe them, and people now frequently take them when they shouldn’t, such as when they have a viral infection like the flu.	但抗生素的效力导致许多医疗机构过度使用，人们现在经常在不应使用抗生素的场合（如患病毒性感冒时）使用它。


Antibiotics are also being fed indiscriminately to livestock and fish to boost food production.	人类也将抗生素不分青红皂白地喂给牲畜和鱼类，并试图借此提高粮食产量。


According to some estimates, less than half of all the antibiotics taken by humans are actually needed, and there is even more needless use in animals.	据估计，真正有必要使用的抗生素仅占人类使用抗生素的不到一半，而动物滥用抗生素的情况就更多。


As we now know, this is a recipe for disaster.	我们现在知道，这个问题是灾难性的。


More frequent antibiotic use accelerates the process whereby exposed microbes build resistance.	频繁使用抗生素加速了微生物产生耐药性的过程。


Soon enough, the antibiotic becomes ineffective.	抗生素很快就会失效。


Worse still, very few pharmaceutical companies are developing new antibiotics to replace those that are losing their effectiveness.	更糟的是，很少有制药公司正在进行替代失效抗生素的新型抗生素研发。


This points to the dual nature of the problem.	这进一步凸显了问题的两面性。


While antibiotics are used excessively in some places, they are unavailable in others.	尽管抗生素在某些地方被过量使用，但在其他地方却无法得到。


More children in Africa die from a lack of access to antibiotics than from antibiotic-resistant infections.	更多非洲儿童并非死于耐药菌感染，而是死于抗生素缺乏。


Indeed, many still die from infections, such as bacterial pneumonia, that should be easily treatable.	事实上，很多儿童仍然死于细菌性肺炎等感染，而这种感染本来是应当可以轻松治愈的。


Saving the lives of mothers and infants will require us to address the problem of access as well as excess.	我们必须同时解决用不上和过量使用问题才能挽救母亲和婴儿的生命。


Simply put, those who need lifesaving antibiotics must get them, and those who do not must not.	简言之，那些需要抗生素救命的人必须用上抗生素，而那些不需要的人则���定不能得到。


The most important step is to stop the spread of infection, so that antibiotics don’t have to be used in the first place.	首要步骤是阻止传染病的传播，这样从一开始抗生素的使用就没有必要。


All health-care facilities, at a minimum, must have clean running water and sanitation services, and health-care professionals must follow good hygienic practices such as hand washing.	所有医疗机构最低限度都必须配备清洁自来水和卫生服务，而专业医疗人员必须养成洗手等良好的卫生习惯。


Facilities should also implement policies to discharge mothers and newborns sooner rather than later, in order to reduce the potential for exposure to infectious microbes, and to educate mothers on the importance of breastfeeding in strengthening newborns’ immune systems.	医疗机构还应落实尽快让母婴出院的政策，从而尽可能减少微生物感染，并教育母亲母乳喂养对强化新生儿免疫系统有多重要。


Finally, when antibiotics are used, health-care providers should confirm that they are truly needed and prescribe responsible doses.	最后，在使用抗生素时，医疗服务机构应当确保抗生素使用的必要性，并在处方中开具负责任的剂量。


Fortunately, policymakers around the world have started to pay attention to this issue.	幸运的是，这个问题已经引起了世界各国决策者的关注。


In 2015, the World Health Assembly, the World Health Organization’s decision-making body, adopted a global action plan to address antimicrobial resistance.	2015年，世卫组织决策机构世界卫生大会通过了一项解决细菌耐药性问题的全球行动计划。


The plan establishes a framework for raising awareness of the problem, collecting more data, developing new drugs and diagnostic tools, encouraging practices to reduce infections, optimizing antibiotic usage, and investing in countries’ health-care and sanitation capacities.	该计划制定框架提高对问题的认识、搜集更多数据、研发新药和诊断工具、鼓励减少感染的操作、优化抗生素的使用并投资于国家的医疗和卫生计划。


World leaders will address antibiotic resistance at next month’s G20 summit in China, and then at a high-level United Nations General Assembly meeting.	世界领袖将在下月中国举行的G20峰会及高层联大会议上解决抗生素耐药性问题。


This is as it should be, because no border or wall will keep out drug-resistant bacteria.	这样的举措恰如其分，因为任何边境或墙壁都对耐药菌不起作用。


A real commitment from all governments is necessary for tackling a problem that threatens the lives and health of mothers and infants worldwide.	解决威胁全世界母婴生命的问题需要各国政府的艰苦工作。


Antibiotics That Work	有效的抗生素


MEXICO CITY – From the discovery of penicillin in 1928 to the introduction of the last of the main groups of antibiotics in the 1960s, humanity’s capacity to fight pathogenic bacteria has been transformative.	墨西哥城——从1928年发现青霉素到二十世纪六十年代最后一批主要抗生素进入市场，人类抵御病原菌的能力发生了极大的变革。


But, over time, the number of antibiotics to which bacteria are susceptible has been dwindling, and some pathogens have become resistant to most or all existing drugs.	但是，随着时间的推移，细菌易感的抗生素数量正在逐渐减少，并且某些病原体已经对多数或所有现有药物产生了耐药反应。


As a result, once-treatable infections are becoming deadly again.	结果导致曾经可以治疗的感染正在重新变得致命。


Already, antibiotic resistance is leading to an estimated 700,000 deaths per year, with financial costs reaching tens of billions of dollars.	目前，抗生素耐药性每年导致约70，000人死亡，由此造成高达成百上千亿美元的财务损失。


As antibiotic resistance continues to undermine our ability to treat cancers, transplant organs, and implant prosthesis, these figures will only rise.	由于抗生素耐药性继续影响我们治疗癌症、移植器官和植入假体，抗生素耐药性造成的损失将会更加严重。


Many factors have contributed to rising antibiotic resistance.	抗生素耐药性上升是由诸多因素共同导致的。


Bacteria can reproduce and mutate rapidly, and they can establish something of a “genetic Internet” that enables certain pathogenic bacteria to “download” antibiotic-resistant genes.	细菌可以快速繁殖和突变，并能建立某种类似“基因互联网”的网络，允许某些病原菌“下载”抗生素耐药基因。


Moreover, most antibiotics are natural products of soil bacteria, in which antibiotic resistance can occur naturally.	此外，多数抗生素是土壤细菌的天然产物，而抗生素耐药性可以在土壤菌群中自然产生。


When human-made antibiotics were introduced on a massive scale, the bacteria with resistance became the most prevalent.	当大规模引入人造抗生素时，具有耐药性的细菌就会越来越盛行。


Today, humans release about 100,000 tons of antibiotics per year.	今天，人类每年释放约100,000吨抗生素。


If those antibiotics were being used properly and saving lives, a reasonable cost-benefit analysis might be possible.	如果这些抗生素运用恰当并能挽救生命，合理的成本效益分析或许会成为可能。


But about 70% of them are used to make farm animals to grow a bit faster.	但约70%的抗生素却被用于加快农场动物的生长速度。


The other 30%, while used to treat people, are often prescribed incorrectly or needlessly.	其余30%虽然用于治疗病人，但处方却往往不正确或不必要。


And, because a substantial share of the used drugs are released into the environment with wastewater and manure, bacterial communities in soils, waters, and wildlife are also exposed.	而且，由于大部分用过的药物随废水和粪便排入环境，从而导致土壤、水体和野生动物当中的菌群也能接触到。


If this abuse of antibiotics does not end, we will soon find ourselves without drugs to treat bacterial infections effectively.	如果这种滥用抗生素的局面不尽快结束，我们很快就会发现自己没有有效治疗细菌感染的药物可用。


But while some steps are being taken – a high-level United Nations meeting last September produced proposals for some international measures – they are far from adequate.	但尽管正在采取某些措施——去年9月召开的一次联合国高级别会议提出了某些国际政策建议——但采取的措施还远远不够。


What is really needed is an immediate worldwide ban on the agricultural use of antibiotics.	人类真正需要的是立即在全球范围内禁止抗生素的农业应用。


Moreover, guidelines for the clinical use of antibiotics, which the medical community now follows as closely as those concerning how to pick a necktie, must be reviewed and strongly enforced.	此外，现在在医疗界执行力度堪比如何选择领带指南的抗生素临床使用指南必须得到严格的审核和执行。


These two measures alone – both of which could be enacted by governmental regulatory agencies – would reduce the use of antibiotics by nearly 80%, slowing the rise of antibiotic resistance substantially.	仅靠这两项措施——两者都可以由政府监管机构颁布——就可以减少近80%的抗生素用量，从而大大延缓抗生素耐药性的产生。


Of course, getting governments to implement such measures will not be easy, because they run counter to powerful economic interests, the most obvious being the pharmaceutical industry, which sells $40 billion worth of antibiotics each year.	当然，让政府实施这些政策并不容易，因为它们与强大的经济利益背道而驰，其中最明显的莫过于制药行业，该行业每年出售价值400亿美元的抗生素。


While Big Pharma has a strong interest in continued antibiotic abuse, it has little interest in developing new antibiotics to tackle drug-resistant bacteria.	尽管大型药企对继续滥用抗生素兴趣强烈，但却对研发新抗生素应对耐药菌缺乏兴趣。


Drugs for chronic illnesses and cancer are better for their bottom line.	他们的底线是抗生素能够治疗癌症和慢性病。


So Big Pharma is seeking “incentives” to pursue research and development of new antibiotics, such as extended patents or tax breaks; the alternative would be to charge astronomical prices for new drugs.	因此大型药企要求“激励措施”才愿开展新抗生素的研发，比方说延长专利期限或减税； 另外一种办法是为新药开出天文数字的价格。


But the benefits of such incentives for pharmaceutical companies would far exceed the cost of the actual R&D pursued; they would be instruments to funnel public funds into private hands – the very hands that caused the problem.	但这些激励措施为制药企业带来的收益远远超过了实际研发成本； 于是成为让公共资金流入私人腰包的工具——而恰恰是这些人最初造成了问题。


Beyond all of these carrots, however, societies should consider using some sticks.	但除了这些胡萝卜，社会还应该考虑使用大棒。


I propose an initiative that rates pharmaceutical companies according to their contribution to solving the antibiotic-resistance problem; those that do not contribute should be punished with fewer sales.	我建议实行一项计划，根据药企在解决抗生素耐药性问题方面的贡献对其进行评级； 应当惩罚那些不做贡献的企业减少其销售额。


I call it NANBU (No Antibiotics, No Business).	我称之为NANBU计划（即没有抗生素、就没有业务）。


NANBU would grant points to companies with vigorous research programs or with new antibiotics in the development pipeline.	NANBU计划会给积极研究新抗生素的企业添加分数。


Companies that do not manufacture or sell antibiotics for agricultural purposes, or that refuse to promote the use of antibiotics for diseases that do not require such drugs, would gain points as well.	不为农业目的制造或出售抗生素、抑或拒绝在不需要此类药物的疾病领域推广抗生素应用的企业也能够获得分数。


Those that engaged in the opposite behaviors – selling antibiotics as livestock “growth promoters” or actively encouraging physicians to prescribe the drugs – would lose points.	而那些从事相反行为的企业——将抗生素作为牲畜“生长促进剂”出售或积极鼓励医生开药的企业——将会丢掉分数。


At first, virtually all drug companies would have negative scores.	起初，几乎所有制药企业都会丢掉分数。


But, over time, the ratings could be adjusted, always according to scientifically sound advice from an independent group of experts.	但随着时间的推移可以对评级进行调整，而调整评级一定要以独立专家组的合理建议为依据。


The ratings could then be used to guide drug-purchasing decisions.	然后可以使用评级来指导购药决策。


For many kinds of relevant drugs, there are several options with similar efficacy and safety, produced by different companies.	对诸多相关药物种类来讲，往往有不同制药企业生产的若干种药物具有相似的功效和安全性。


So clinicians could prescribe drugs mostly from highly rated companies, and avoid drugs from companies with low ratings.	于是临床医生可以大量使用来自高评级企业的药物，避免让低评级企业的药物流入市场。


Patients could encourage such decision-making, and follow suit when purchasing over-the-counter drugs.	患者则应当鼓励这样的决策，并遵循同样的原则购买非处方药。


Over time, antibiotics could become more profitable again, as engaged companies sell more of their other drugs and the need for costly incentives diminishes.	随着时间的推移，抗生素可以再次获得更强的盈利能力，因为相关公司可以销售更多其他药物，因此逐渐降低对昂贵激励政策的需求。


The key to NANBU’s success will be to ensure widespread understanding of the antibiotic-resistance threat and what is needed to combat it.	NANBU计划成功的关键是确保人们广泛了解抗生素耐药性造成的威胁及其相关应对举措。


This would give patients and doctors the impetus to regard NANBU ratings in making drug decisions, as well as to pressure their governments to take even stronger action.	这将推动患者和医生在决定使用何种药物时考虑NANBU 评级，并迫使它们的政府采取更加有力的行动。


The use of a public awareness campaign to intensify pressure on governments to pursue necessary but difficult measures has worked before – for example, in advancing forest and fishery sustainability.	利用公众宣传加强政府落实必要但困难政策的压力曾经获得过成功——这方面的例子包括推进林业和渔业的可持续性。


Public awareness was among the priorities highlighted at the UN meeting.	公众宣传是联合国会议强调的重点事项。


To carry out that global effort, however, we need a new global institution that really is up to the task.	但要推进这项全球工作，我们需要新的全球机构来负责完成。


NANBU, as an international NGO, would be able to cope with the transnational nature of most drug companies, while being protected from national-level lobbying or political pressure.	NANBU作为一家国际非政府机构，可以从容面对多数跨国制药企业，并在国内游说或政治压力面前得到保护。


Antibiotic-resistant bacteria represent a global threat, and therefore cannot be addressed with national measures alone.	抗生素耐药菌是一种全球威胁，因此不能仅靠国内政策加以应对。


The world must think and act together to preserve the huge gains to human health and wellbeing that antibiotics have enabled.	世界各国必须共同思考和行动，以保护抗生素为人类带来的巨大的健康和福利收益。


A Fair Fight Against Antimicrobial Resistance	对耐药性的公平之战


BRIGHTON – Existing anti-microbial drugs are becoming ineffective.	布莱顿——现有抗菌药的效果正在逐渐丧失。


If current trends continue, we could end up reliving conditions before the discovery of antibiotics, when infectious diseases were major killers.	如果任由目前趋势继续下去，我们可能重温抗生素发明之前坐视感染性疾病成为主要杀手的境况。


Meeting the challenge of drug-resistant microbes will be difficult. It will require not only major investments in research and development of new anti-microbial drugs, but also a system to control and restrict new treatments, in order to preserve their efficacy.	迎接耐药菌发起的挑战绝非易事，这需要大规模投资研发新的抗菌药，还要为确保药物有效性建立起控制及限制新疗法的医疗制度。


As with the response to climate change, an effective strategy will require international coordination.	就像应对气候变化问题一样，国际协调行动是任何有效策略的基础。


In particular, the needs of pharmaceutical companies must be reconciled with those of government payers and the global poor.	尤其是必须协调药企 、政府付费机构和全球穷人的关系。


Indeed, engaging the poor will be crucial to any effort.	事实上，成功的关键在于鼓励穷人参与。


Low- and middle-income countries are an important source of drug-resistant organisms.	中低收入国家是耐药菌的重要滋生地。


Crowded housing, poor sanitation, and compromised immune systems, whether owing to malnutrition or chronic infections such as HIV, provide fertile ground for contagion.	住房拥挤、卫生条件差和免疫系统受损无论因为营养不良还是HIV等慢性感染，均为传染病的蔓延提供了肥沃的土壤。


Antibiotics are often misused or low-quality, providing bacteria the opportunity to develop resistance.	抗生素质量低劣并常被误用使细菌有了产生耐药性的机会。


Large volumes of antibiotics are also used in animal husbandry.	大量抗生素同时被应用于畜牧业。


Meanwhile, greatly improved transportation infrastructure – between rural and urban areas and between countries – means that resistant genes quickly become part of a global pool.	此外，各国农村及城市间显著改善的交通基础设施也导致耐药基因迅速在世界各地传播。


In many vulnerable countries, the government health-care system cannot meet demand, and a variety of providers are attempting to bridge the gap. These range from medical specialists to informal providers, who work largely outside the regulatory framework.	在很多容易感染传染病的国家，政府的医疗保健系统都无法满足需求，于是这当中的差距就由从医疗专家到非正规供应商的一系列游离于监管体系之外的供应商来负责弥补。


These patchwork systems do have benefits.	这样的制度外安排确有好处。


A recent study in Bangladesh, for example, concluded that antibiotics provided by so-called “village doctors,” often operating from market stalls, contributed to declines in mortality from post-natal sepsis and childhood pneumonia.	例如孟加拉国最近的一项研究表明由租摊经营的所谓“乡村医生”所提供的抗生素对降低产后败血症和儿童肺炎的死亡率都有帮助。


But there is also considerable evidence that the drugs being provided are of varying quality and are frequently taken unnecessarily.	但也有相当多证据表明所提供药品质量参差不齐，并且也经常出现滥用。


Too often, patients do not purchase a full course of treatment.	很多时候患者都未能按疗程服药。


One response could be to enact and enforce laws that make antibiotics available only on a doctor’s prescription.	一种对策是制定并执行立法仅凭医生处方购买抗生素。


However, this could end up severely limiting poor people’s access to antibiotics, leading to higher death rates from infections, making it politically unacceptable and thus difficult to enforce.	但这样可能严重限制穷人获取抗生素的渠道，提高感染死亡率，因此既难以执行又在政治上无法接受。


A better alternative would be to develop new strategies to improve antibiotic treatments that are provided through informal channels.	替代方法是制定通过非正式渠道改善抗生素治疗的新策略。


For starters, investment is needed to generate reliable surveillance data on the drugs that are effective against common infections.	首先要投资获取常见抗感染药的可靠监测数据。


Treatment guidelines must incorporate this information and be given to all providers of antibiotics.	治疗指引必须涵盖上述信息，并将其分发给所有抗生素供应者。


Meanwhile, high-quality antibiotics must be made available at affordable prices.	此外，必须以合理价格提供高质量的抗生素。


Counterfeit products must be identified and removed from the marketplace, and a regulatory partnership between governments, the pharmaceutical sector, and citizens’ groups must be developed to control for quality.	必须从市场上消除假冒产品，并在政府、药企和公民团体间建立合作监管机制来控制质量。 必须通过批量采购等方式以确保药品低价；


Prices must be kept low through bulk procurement; in some cases, public subsidies may be necessary.	在某些情况下，可能有必要发放公共补贴。


Measures to reduce prices will need to be complemented by efforts to discourage overuse.	降价措施需要配合有关规定来防止滥用。


Innovations in packaging, perhaps providing full courses of appropriate combinations of drugs, could simplify treatment decisions.	推出全疗程组合药物创新包装可以简化治疗决策。


Likewise, development of low-cost diagnostic technologies could help diminish the need to provide treatment on the basis of symptoms alone.	同样，发展低成本诊断技术可以减少仅以症状为依据的治疗需求。


The biggest challenge will be to encourage providers of antibiotics to change their behavior.	最大的挑战是鼓励抗生素供应商改变其行为。


This will require measures such as accreditation, modification of payment mechanisms, and the involvement of intermediary organizations to give technical support and monitor performance.	这需要认证、修改支付机制和鼓励中介机构参与提供技术支持并监控效果。


These organizations could include NGOs, religious organizations, social entrepreneurs, and companies that distribute drugs.	上述机构可以包括非政府组织、宗教机构、社会企业家和药物分销企业。


These activities are unlikely to be commercially sustainable, and thus will require support from governments, philanthropies, and perhaps drug producers.	这些活动不太可能取得商业利益，因此政府、慈善机构和药品生产商的支持就变得十分必要。


In the meantime, the public must receive reliable information and advice on the proper use of antibiotics.	与此同时，必须将正确使用抗生素的可靠信息和建议传达给公众。


This is particularly important where citizens rely largely on their own resources to cope with health problems.	如果民众大都依赖自身资源来应对疾病这一点就显得尤为重要。


Implementing a system-wide change in the use of antibiotics will require the creation of national and global coalitions.	落实系统化的抗生素应用改革需要建立国家和全球联盟。


One core aim must be to establish basic standards of conduct for health workers and drug companies that reflect the needs of patients and communities.	必须以制定反映患者和社团需求的医疗工作者和药企基本行为准则为核心目标。


Governments will need to build their capacity to play an effective role in this process, and companies that develop, produce, and distribute drugs and diagnostic technologies will have to contribute actively to the search for collaborative solutions.	政府必须在此过程中发挥有效作用； 研制、生产和销售药物和诊断技术的企业将积极探索促进合作。


Only if we manage antiobiotics in a fair and sustainable way will we be able to benefit from them at all.	人类从中受益的前提是必须以公正、可持续的方式管理抗生素。


The Anti-Democratic Heart of Populism	民粹主义的反民主之心


SANTIAGO – Many of the men and women who turned out for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in early October were saying something like this: “Imagine if the Republicans had nominated someone with the same anti-trade views as Trump, minus the insults and the sexual harassment.	圣地亚哥——参加国际货币基金组织10月初年度会议的代表普遍认为：“假设共和党人不顾性骚扰和侮辱性言论提名了像特朗普这样的反贸易主义者，就有可能导致民粹保护主义者入主白宫。


A populist protectionist would be headed to the White House.”	”


The underlying view is that rising populism on the right and the left, both in the United States and in Europe, is a straightforward consequence of globalization and its unwanted effects: lost jobs and stagnant middle-class incomes.	弦外之音是美国和欧洲的左右翼民粹主义势力崛起是全球化及其负面影响的直接后果：相关负面影响包括失业和中产阶级收入停滞。


Davos men and women hate this conclusion, but they have embraced it with all the fervor of new converts.	达沃斯的与会代表不喜欢这个结论，但他们却以皈依者般的热情接受了它。


Yet there is an alternative – and more persuasive – view: while economic stagnation helps push upset voters into the populist camp, bad economics is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for bad politics.	但还有另一种更具说服力的观点：虽然经济停滞可以助推选民进入民粹主义阵营，但经济形势低迷不是政治混乱的必要和充分条件。


On the contrary, argues Princeton political scientist Jan-Werner Mueller in his new book: populism is a “permanent shadow” on representative democracy.	恰恰相反，普林斯顿大学政治学家穆勒在其新著中提出：民粹主义是代议制民主“永远无法摆脱的阴影”。


Populism is not about taxation (or jobs or income inequality).	民粹主义的本质不是税收（也不是就业或收入平等）。


It is about representation – who gets to speak for the people and how.	它的本质是代表权——谁能以何种形式代表民众说话。


Advocates of democracy make some exalted claims on its behalf.	民主倡导者往往为民主高唱赞歌。


As Abraham Lincoln put it at Gettysburg, it is “government of the people, by the people, for the people.”	比如亚伯拉罕·林肯在葛底斯堡提出“民有、民治、民享的政府。


But modern representative democracy – or any democracy, for that matter – inevitably falls short of these claims.	”但现代代议制民主——或者任何一种民主——都难免不符合这样的说法。


Voting in an election every four years for candidates chosen by party machines is not exactly what Lincoln’s lofty words call to mind.	四年一次在大选中为党派机器确定的候选人投票很难让人联想起林肯高谈阔论的内容。


What populists offer, Mueller says, is to fulfill what the Italian democratic theorist Norberto Bobbio calls the broken promises of democracy.	穆勒提出，民粹主义者的目标是实现意大利民主理论家贝尔托·波比奥所谓破碎的民主承诺。 穆勒称民粹主义者的言行“就像民众可以达成一致共识，.


Populists speak and act, claims Mueller, “as if the people could develop a singular judgment,...as if the people were one,...as if the people, if only they empowered the right representatives, could fully master their fates.”	就像只要民众选出合适的代表，就可以把命运牢牢控制在自己的手中。 ”


Populism rests on a toxic triad: denial of complexity, anti-pluralism, and a crooked version of representation.	民粹主义的基础是有毒三元组：否定复杂性、反多元主义和扭曲代表形式。


Most of us believe that social choices (Build more schools or hospitals?	我们多数人都认为社会选择非常复杂，对今后措施存在不同的看法是自然和合理的。


Stimulate or discourage international trade?	但民粹主义者却否认这一点。


Liberalize or restrict abortion?) are complex, and that the existence of a plurality of views about what to do is both natural and legitimate.	正如拉尔夫·达伦多夫曾经说过的那样，民粹主义是简单；


Populists deny this.	而民主是复杂。


As Ralf Dahrendorf once put it, populism is simple; democracy is complex. To populists, there is only one right view – that of the people.	在民粹主义者看来，只有一种正确的观点——那就是民众的看法。


If so, the complex mechanisms of liberal democracy, with its emphasis on delegation and representation, are all unnecessary.	如果真的如此，自由民主的复杂机制及其对授权和代表性的强调都是不必要的。


No need for parliaments endlessly debating: the unitary will of the people can easily be expressed in a single vote.	议会不需要无休无止的辩论：民众的统一意志可以轻易地以一次统一投票的形式表达。


Hence populists’ love affair with plebiscites and referenda.	因此民粹主义者热衷于公民投票。


Brexit, anyone?	英国脱欧，还记得吗？


And not just anyone can represent the people.	不是随便哪个人都可以代表民众。


The claim is to exclusive representation.	他们宣扬绝对代表。


Remember Trump’s boast in his address to the Republican National Convention: “I alone can fix it.”	还记不记得特朗普在共和党全国代表大会上的自吹自擂：“我靠一己之力就可以解决它。 ”


Politics is always about morality, Aristotle told us.	亚里士多德告诉我们，政治永远关乎道德。


But populists favor what Mueller calls a particular moralistic interpretation of politics.	但民粹主义者喜欢穆勒所谓特定的政治道德解读。


Those who hold the right view about the world are moral; the rest are immoral, lackeys of a corrupt elite.	那些对世界看法正确的人是道德的； 其他人都是腐败政治精英的走狗，因此都不道德。


That was exactly the rhetoric of the late Venezuelan ruler Hugo Chávez.	这恰恰是委内瑞拉统治者乌戈·查韦斯宣扬的观点。


When that failed, and when Chávez’s sank his country’s economy, there was always US imperialism to blame.	他那一套失败后，查韦斯将国家经济搞糟后反正可以把责任推到美帝国主义身上。


So populism is a kind of identity politics.	因此民粹主义是一种身份政治。


It is always us against them.	其本质是我们反对他们。


Viewed in this light, populism is not a useful corrective to a democracy captured by technocrats and elites, as Marine Le Pen, Rafael Correa, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, or assorted Western intellectuals want you to believe.	从这个角度看，民粹主义并非技术官僚和精英发现的对民主的有效矫正，就像马琳·勒庞、拉斐尔·科雷亚、雷德普·塔伊普·埃尔多安或形形色色的西方知识分子希望你相信的那样。


On the contrary, it is profoundly anti-democratic, and hence a threat to democracy itself.	恰恰相反，它本质上具有反民主色彩，因此能够威胁到民主本身。


What is to be done?	那么我们该怎么做？


My take (the prescription is my own, not Mueller’s) is that democrats must (and can) beat populists at their own game.	我的处方（不是穆勒的，而是我的）是民主派必须（而且能够）在他们擅长的领域击败民粹主义者。


The toxic triad can become salutary.	有毒三元组可以转化为有益的元素。


First, acknowledge complexity.	首先必须承认局势的复杂性。


The only thing that upsets voters as much as being lied to is being treated like babies.	让选民像被欺骗一样厌恶的只有一件事：就是像对孩子一样对他们。


People who lead challenging lives know that the world is complex.	艰辛生活的民众必须知道世界是复杂的。


They do not mind being told that.	他们并不介意有人这样说。


They appreciate being spoken to as the grownups they are.	他们本来就是成年人，应当以成年人的方式同他们对话。


Second, do not treat diversity of views and identities as a problem calling for a technocratic solution.	其次，不要将多种观点和身份当作需要解决的技术性问题。


Rather, make respect for such diversity a profoundly moral feature of society.	相反，尊重上述多样性符合社会深层次道德特征的要求。


The fact that we are not all the same and we can still get along is a tremendous democratic achievement.	事实上，我们并不完全相同但我们可以和平共处是一项伟大的民主成就。


Make the case for it.	我们应当大力宣传它。


And do not fall for the tired cliché that reason is for democrats and emotion is for populists.	不要相信令人厌倦的陈词滥调，认为民粹主义者才诉诸情感，而民主派必须是理智的。


Make the case for pluralistic democracy in a way that inspires and stirs emotion.	我们必须以激发情感的方式来宣传多元化民主。


Third, defend – and update – representation.	第三，捍卫——并且升级——代议制。


Leave delegation to complex technical matters.	仅在复杂的技术性事务中利用委托。


Take advantage of modern technologies to bring other choices – particularly those having to do with the fabric of daily life – closer to voters.	利用现代技术让其他选择——特别是贴近日常生活的选择——更贴近于投票者。


Tighten campaign finance laws, regulate lobbying better, and enforce affirmative-action measures to ensure that representatives are of the people and work for the people.	收紧竞选融资法律、更严格地规范游说并推进平权行动以确保代表来自民众并为民众服务。


These measures alone will not ensure that all of democracy’s broken promises are fulfilled.	仅靠采取上述措施，还无法确保实现民主所有的破碎承诺。


But we cannot expect a single set of simple actions to solve a complex problem.	但我们不能期望靠一系列简单行动来解决复杂问题。


Nor can we believe that we alone can fix it.	我们也不能认为仅靠一己之力就可以解决它。


If we believed that, we would be populists.	如果我们这么认为，我们就成了民粹主义者。


For the sake of democracy, that is precisely what we should not be.	为了保护民主，这恰恰是我们应当避免的。


Immigration and the New Class Divide	移民和新阶级分化


SINGAPORE – The British shadow minister for Europe, Pat McFadden, recently warned members of his Labour Party that they should try to make the most of the global economy and not treat immigration like a disease.	新加坡——英国的欧洲事务影子大臣帕特·麦克法登最近警告工党党员他们应该尽可能去接纳全球经济，而不要像对待瘟疫一样对移民问题避之唯恐不及。


As he put it, “You can feed on people’s grievances or you can give people a chance.	如他所言，“你可以从别人的痛苦中寻找满足感，也可以给别人一个机会。


And I think our policies should be around giving people a chance.”	我认为我们的政策应当着重于给别人机会。 ”


In a world increasingly dominated by grievances – against immigrants, bankers, Muslims, “liberal elites,” “Eurocrats,” cosmopolitans, or anything else that seems vaguely alien – such wise words are rare.	在这个被针对移民、银行家、穆斯林、“自由派精英”、“欧盟官员”、世界主义者或哪怕仅有些许陌生的任何事物的不满所占据的世界里，像这样明智的看法已经十分罕有。


Leaders worldwide should take note.	世界各国领袖应该多加听取。


In the United States, Republicans – backed by their Tea Party activists – are threatening to close the government down just because President Barack Obama has offered undocumented immigrants who have lived and worked in the US for many years a chance to gain citizenship.	在美国，由茶党活动分子支持的共和党正威胁要关闭政府，理由仅仅因为奥巴马总统为已经在美工作生活多年的非法移民提供了获得公民身份的机会。


The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) wants to introduce a five-year ban on immigration for permanent settlement.	英国独立党（UKIP）正力推一项计划，在五年内禁止移民取得永久定居资格。


Russia’s deputy prime minister, Dmitry Rogozin, once released a video promising to “clean the rubbish” – meaning migrant workers, mostly from former Soviet republics – “away from Moscow.”	俄罗斯副总理罗戈津曾经公布了一段视频承诺要将垃圾从莫斯科“清理”出去——他把主要来自前苏联加盟共和国的外来务工者称之为垃圾。


Even the once famously tolerant Dutch and Danes are increasingly voting for parties that fulminate against the scourge of immigration.	就连曾以宽容闻名的荷兰和丹麦人都越来越多地投票给主张严惩移民的党派。


Always keen to assert the freedom to insult Muslims, the Dutch Freedom Party wants to ban all mosques.	一贯主张可以自由侮辱穆斯林的荷兰自由党想要禁止所有的清真寺。


And the tiny and much-harassed opposition parties in Singapore – a country where almost everyone is descended from immigrants – are gaining traction by appealing to popular gripes about immigrants (mostly from India and China) who are supposedly taking jobs from “natives.”	就连新加坡势单力薄且备受骚扰的反对党——新加坡几乎人人都是移民的后代——都从迎合民众对于移民（主要是中印移民）的不满中汲取动力，人们认为这些移民从“本地人”手中抢走了工作机会。


What can American Tea Party enthusiasts, Russian chauvinists, fearful Dutch and Danes, and Singaporean leftists possibly have in common that is driving this anti-immigrant sentiment?	美国茶党狂热份子、俄国沙文主义者、忧心忡忡的荷兰和丹麦人以及新加坡左翼人士究竟有哪些共同诉求推动着这样的反移民情绪？


Retaining one’s job in a tightening economy is undoubtedly a serious concern.	在经济紧缩环境中保住工作无疑是一个严重的问题。


But the livelihoods of most of the middle-aged rural white Americans who support the Tea Party are hardly threatened by poor Mexican migrants.	但穷苦的墨西哥移民几乎没有威胁到支持茶党的多数美国中年乡村白人的生计。


UKIP is popular in some parts of England where immigrants are rarely seen.	英国独立党受欢迎的某些区域移民非常罕见。


And many of the Dutch Freedom Party’s voters live nowhere near a mosque.	而许多荷兰自由党选民的住所并不靠近任何清真寺。


Anti-immigrant sentiment cuts across the old left-right divide.	反移民情绪不受传统左右翼分界的限制。


One thing Tea Party or UKIP supporters share with working-class voters who genuinely fear losing their jobs to low-paid foreigners is anxiety about being left behind in a world of easy mobility, supranational organizations, and global networking.	茶党或英国自由党支持者与真正担心被低薪外国人抢走工作的工薪阶层选民唯一的共同点是害怕跟不上迅速变化、由超国家机构主导的全球网络化世界的焦虑。


On the right, support for conservative parties is split between business interests that benefit from immigration or supranational institutions, and groups that feel threatened by them.	在右翼领域，对保守党派的支持在移民或超国家机构受益者的商业利益和受威胁团体间发生割裂。


That is why the British Tories are so afraid of UKIP.	从中可以找到英国保守党如此害怕自由党的解释。


Nigel Farage, UKIP’s leader, is less concerned with economic growth than with pursuing his extreme conception of national independence.	相比于经济发展，英国自由党领袖法拉奇更关注宣扬他的极端民族独立。


On the left, opinion is split between those who oppose racism and intolerance above all and those who want to protect employment and preserve “solidarity” for what is left of the native-born working class.	而在左翼领域，反对种族主义及狭隘情绪者和想要保住饭碗和本土工薪阶层残存“团结”者所持的意见发生了分歧。


It would be a mistake to dismiss anxiety about immigration as mere bigotry or apprehension about the globalized economy as simply reactionary.	将移民问题所引发的焦虑仅仅视为对全球化经济的偏见和忧虑并归结为反动情绪而置之不理无疑是一种错失。


National, religious, and cultural identities (for lack of a better word) are being transformed, though less by immigration than by the development of globalized capitalism.	民族、宗教和文化特征（这里缺少更准确的形容词）正在发生转变，虽然转变的动力与其说是移民还不如说是不断发展的全球化资本主义。


In the new global economy, there are clear winners and losers.	在新的全球经济中，输家和赢家都非常明确。


Educated men and women who can communicate effectively in varied international contexts are benefiting.	有能力在各种国际场合有效沟通的受过教育的男性和女性无疑是受益者。


People who lack the needed education or experience – and there are many of them – are struggling.	而缺乏必要教育或经历的人——这种人大有人在——在苦苦地挣扎求助。


In other words, the new class divisions run less between the rich and the poor than between educated metropolitan elites and less sophisticated, less flexible, and, in every sense, less connected provincials.	换言之，新一轮阶级分化无关贫富差异，而更多倾向于受过教育的都市精英和没那么世故、灵活，并且在各方面关系也没那��丰富的乡下人的区别。


It is irrelevant that the provincials’ political leaders (and their backers) are sometimes wealthier than the resented metropolitan elites.	乡下人的政治领袖（及其支持者）有时比他们所痛恨的都市精英更加富有并不能改变什么。


They still feel looked down upon.	他们仍然感到被人看不起。


And so they share the bitterness of those who feel alienated in a world they find bewildering and hateful.	因此他们像所有被扑朔迷离而又令人迷惑的世界排除在外的人一样满怀仇恨和痛苦。


Populist rabble-rousers like to stir up such resentments by ranting about foreigners who work for a pittance or not at all.	民粹主义煽动者想要挑起这样的仇恨，痛骂那些为微薄收入卖命或者根本不工作的外国人。


But it is the relative success of ethnic minorities and immigrants that is more upsetting to indigenous populations.	但其实更令本土民众沮丧的是少数族裔和移民的相对成功。


This explains the popular hostility toward Obama.	这就解释了奥巴马遭人仇恨的原因。


Americans know that, before too long, whites will be just another minority, and people of color will increasingly be in positions of power.	美国人知道不久以后白人将成为少数，有色人种将越来越多地身居要职。


At this point, all Tea Partiers and others like them can do is declare, “We want our country back!”	此时，所有茶党党员和像他们一样的人所能做的只是大喊，“把国家还给我们！ ”


Of course, this is an impossible demand.	当然，这个要求根本不可能。


Short of unleashing massive and bloody ethnic cleansing – Bosnia, on a continental scale – Americans and others have no choice but to get used to living in increasingly diverse societies.	如果不想像波斯尼亚那样引发全境范围内的大规模血腥种族清洗，美国人和其他人除了习惯生活在越来越多样化的社会里之外其实别无选择。


Likewise, economic globalization cannot be undone.	同样，经济全球化的效果也无法消除。


But regulation can and should be improved.	但监管可以而且理应得到改善。


After all, some things are still worth protecting.	归根结底，有些东西仍然值得保护。


There are good reasons not to leave culture, education, lifestyles, or jobs completely exposed to the creative destruction of market forces.	我们不想让文化、教育、生活方式或工作完全处在市场力量的创造性破坏之下有着充分的理由。


McFadden has pinpointed the central solution to globalization’s challenges: giving people “the tools to reap the benefits” of the globalized world, thereby making the “connected world work better for people.”	麦克法登已准确地找到了的全球化挑战的核心解决方案：那就是赋予民众“谋取全球化世界利益的工具”，从而使“高度互联的世界更好地为人们服务”。


The problem is that this call is more likely to appeal to the highly educated, already privileged classes than to those who feel disenfranchised in today’s global economy.	问题是上述呼吁更有可能吸引高学历、已经掌握优势的群体，而不是那些在今天全球经济中感觉权利被剥夺的失意者。


This is a serious problem for political parties on the left, which increasingly seem to be speaking for the metropolitan elites, while provincial populists are pushing traditional conservatives further to the right by fishing in the dark waters of popular resentment.	这个摆在日益代表都市精英利益的左翼政党面前的问题十分严重。 与此同时，乡村民粹主义者正在推动传统的保守派人士在民众仇恨的黑暗领域转向右翼。


The Social Science of Medicine	医学的社会科学


DAVOS – When I was a medical student in the mid-1980s, I contracted malaria in Papua New Guinea. It was a miserable experience.	达沃斯—20实际80年代，当我还是一位医科学生时，我在新几内亚的巴布亚（Papua）得了疟疾。


My head ached.	这是一段可怕的体验。


My temperature soared. I became anemic.	我头痛发烧，并出现贫血。


But I took my medicine, and I got better.	但我吃了药，并好了起来。


The experience wasn’t pleasant, but thanks to cheap, effective malaria drugs I was never in very much danger.	这不是一段愉快的体验，但感谢高效廉价的疟疾药，我从未陷入险境。


The pills that cured me, chloroquine tablets, do not work anymore.	这些把我治愈的药片——氯喹如今已不再有用。


Even at the time I was taking them, the parasite that causes malaria had already become resistant to chloroquine in many parts of the world; Papua New Guinea was one of the last places where the pills continued to be effective, and even there they were losing their potency.	即使在我服用它们的时候，世界许多地区的导致疟疾的寄生虫已经拥有了氯喹抗药性。 巴布亚新几内亚是这些药片还能管用的最后几个地方之一，而即使在那里，氯喹的药效也是每况愈下。


Today, chloroquine has basically disappeared from our medical arsenal.	如今，氯喹已经基本从我们的药品清单中消失。


The growing capacity of pathogens to resist antibiotics and other antimicrobial drugs is turning into the greatest emerging crisis in contemporary health care – and it is a crisis that cannot be solved by science alone.	病原体对抗生素和其他抗菌药的抗药性越来越强，这正在成为当代医疗的最大危机——而这一危机无法单靠科学解决。


Other pharmaceuticals are following in chloroquine’s wake.	其他药品正在步氯喹的后尘。


Multi-drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis, E. coli, and salmonella are now commonplace.	结核菌、大肠杆菌、和沙门氏菌的多抗药性菌株已经司空见惯。


Most gonorrhea infections are untreatable.	大部分淋病是不可治愈的。


Superbugs, like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Clostridium difficile, are proliferating.	超级病菌，如具有甲氧西林抗药性的金黄葡萄球菌（MRSA）和艰难梭菌，正在迅速繁衍。


In India, antibiotic-resistant infections killed more than 58,000 newborns in 2013.	在印度，2013年因抗生素无效的传染病而令58,000 新生儿死亡。


Today, malaria is often treated with a combination of artemisinin – a drug derived from a Chinese herb – and other antimalarial drugs.	如今，疟疾往往通过青蒿素（一种中国药草总提炼的药物）和其他抗疟疾药物一起使用治疗。


But these revolutionary medicines are now in danger of following chloroquine into obsolescence; resistant strains of malaria have been documented in Southeast Asia.	但这些革命性药品极有可能步氯喹的后尘成为明日黄花； 抗药疟疾菌株已经在东南亚进入记录。


This is more than a medical problem; it is a potential economic disaster.	这不仅仅是一个医学问题； 这是一场潜在的经济灾难。


Research commissioned by the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, headed by the economist Jim O’Neill, has calculated that if current trends continue, drug-resistant infections will kill ten million people a year by 2050 and cost the global economy some $100 trillion over the next 35 years.	以经济学家奥尼尔（Jim O’Neil）牵头进行的抗生素抗药性研究（Review on Antimicrobial Resistance）指出，如果当前趋势持续，抗药性传染病将在2050年夺走1 000万人的生命，在未来35年中给全球经济带来100多万亿美元的损失。


Even that dramatic prediction may be a substantial underestimate, as it includes only the direct costs in terms of lives and wellbeing lost to infections. Many other aspects of modern medicine also rely on antibiotics.	甚至如此严重的预测也有可能大大低估了情况，因为它只包括了用传染病所造成的生命和福祉衡量的直接损失。


Cancer patients receiving chemotherapy take them to suppress bacteria that would otherwise overwhelm their weakened immune systems.	接受化疗的癌症患者是为了用它们抑制非如此就会摧毁他们羸弱的免疫系统的细菌。


Many surgical operations now considered routine, including joint replacements and Caesarean sections, can be performed safely only when antibiotics prevent opportunistic infections.	许多如今被视为常规手段的外科收入，包括人工关节和剖腹产，只有在抗生素能够预防偶发感染的情况下才能实施。


The origins of drug resistance are a well-understood matter of evolution.	抗药性的源头在早已是众所周知的进化论。


If pathogens are exposed to the selective pressure of toxic drugs, eventually they will adapt.	如果病原体被暴露在有选择的毒性药物的压力之下，最终它们会适应这种药物。


The Wellcome Trust, which I lead, has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into researching these mechanisms, improving diagnoses, and creating new drugs.	由我担任总裁的惠康基金会（Wellcome Trust）投资了数亿美元用于研究这些机制、改善诊断和创造新药。


In order to address the problem effectively, this effort must be extended beyond the realm of biological science to areas not traditionally associated with medicine.	为了有效解决问题，这一努力必须扩大到科学领域之外，进入与传统上与医学并不相关的领域。


In rich and poor countries alike, we have become systematic abusers of antibiotics.	不论是富国还是穷国，我们都在系统性滥用抗生素。


The key to combating resistance is to delay the rate at which the pathogens can adapt.	对付抗药性的关键在于拖延病原体的适应。


But, by overprescribing antibiotics and failing to complete the required courses of treatment, we are exposing germs to just enough medicine to encourage resistance.	但是，由于过多地开出抗生素处方盒无法完成必要的疗程，我们正在让细菌获得恰好能鼓励抗药性的药量。


In effect, we are vaccinating germs against the drugs we want to use against them.	因此，我们实际上在帮助细菌接种，形成对我们希望用来对付它们的药物的免疫力。


That is because we have come to regard antibiotics almost as consumer goods – ours to demand from doctors, and ours to take or stop taking as we see fit.	这是因为我们一直几乎完全把抗生素看成是一种消费品——我们要求医生给我们开出处方，并在我们感到合适的时候停药。


Even the most informed patients misuse these wonder drugs.	即使是最了解情况的患者也会无用这些出色的药物。


Research in the United Kingdom has found that even people who understand how resistance develops often contribute to the problem by taking antibiotics without a prescription or giving their drugs to members of their family.	英国的研究发现，哪怕是知道抗药性如何发展的人，也常常会在没有处方的情况下服用抗生素或把自己的药给家庭成员，从而加剧了抗药性问题。


Changing such destructive behavior will require that we better understand the social and cultural factors that drive it.	改变这一破坏性行为需要我们更好地理解其背后的社会和文化因素。


Disciplines like history, psychology, sociology, anthropology, economics, market research, and social marketing can help.	历史学、心理学、社会学、人类学、经济学、市场研究和社会营销等学科都能有所助益。


This is true not only for antimicrobial resistance.	不仅抗生素抗压性问题是如此。


It also applies to outbreaks like the Ebola epidemic.	埃博拉疫情等疫情的爆发也是如此。


Combating the virus requires knowledge about its biology, the epidemiology of its transmission, and the drugs and vaccines that could potentially be deployed against it.	与病毒抗争需要我们理解病毒的生物学、其传播的传染病学，以及可能使用哪些药物和疫苗来对付它。


But it also requires an understanding of the behaviors that have allowed infection to spread in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea.	但这也需要理解让传染病在利比里亚、塞拉利昂和几内亚肆虐的行为因素。


Explaining what made these societies so vulnerable requires learning about the region’s recent history and understanding why people there are deeply distrustful of public authorities.	解释这些社会为何如此脆弱需要了解地区的最近历史和明白为何那里的人对公共当局极不信任。


Isolation of patients and safe burial of the dead are crucial to containing Ebola, but both need to be introduced with cultural sensitivity – not just explanations of the science behind them.	患者隔离和死者安全下葬时遏制埃博拉的关键，但这两项措施的实施都需要顾及文化敏感性——而不仅仅是它们背后的科学解释。


Today’s great public-health threats have profound economic consequences.	今天的公共卫生大威胁具有深远的经济影响。


Minimizing the risks they pose requires recognizing that they are intertwined with the social, behavioral, and cultural landscape.	实现它们所造成的风险的最小化需要认识到它们与社会、行为和文化因素互动。


Science provides powerful tools.	科学提供了强大的工具。


But we need more than science to use these tools effectively.	但我们需要比科学更多的东西才能有效使用这些工具。


On Antimicrobial Resistance, It’s Now or Never	抗生素耐药性问题是“现在”还是“永不”的问题


LONDON – We often take it for granted that any infection we encounter can be cured, and that all-powerful modern medicine will do precisely what it is supposed to do.	伦敦—我们常常想当然地认为，我们所遇到的一切传染病都是可以治愈的，无比强大的现代医学将取得如同我们想象的那样的效果。


But imagine an alternative scenario: You are diagnosed with a potentially life-threatening infectious disease that was once treatable in weeks or months, but you are told that your treatment will take at least two years, and will involve months of daily injections and some 14,000 pills, with severe side effects.	但想象一下另一个情景：你被诊断患上了有生命危险的传染病，这种病在几周或接个月前还是可治愈的，但你的治疗却至少需要两年，并且有好几个月每天都必须打针，还必须吃下14,000片药丸，忍受严重的副作用。


You are one of a “lucky” minority to have been diagnosed and treated at all, but your odds of beating the disease are still only 50-50.	你属于得到诊断和治疗的“幸运的”少数人，但你战胜病魔的概率仍然只有五成。


Most of us would not associate this scenario with “modern medicine,” but it is a tragic reality for the ranks of people – 500,000 and growing – suffering from multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis.	大多数人都不会讲这一情景与“现代医学”联系起来，但对于很多人——500,000人，并且还在增加——来说，这是一个悲剧的现实。 这些人饱受多重抗药性结核病（MDR-TB）的折磨。


MDR-TB is what happens when drugs lose potency against new strains of previously treatable infections.	多重抗药性结核病意味着药物丧失了对原本可治愈传染病的新菌株的杀伤力。


TB is now the world’s deadliest infectious disease, killing well over one million people every year, and MDR-TB continues to spread in low- and middle-income countries as health-care providers struggle to combat it.	结核病是目前全世界最致命的传染病，每年都有一百万多人因此丧生，而由于医疗供应商对此办法不多，多重抗药性结核病仍在中低收入国家蔓延。


MDR-TB imposes a massive burden on countries’ public-health systems and economies, and it is a harbinger of what rich and poor countries alike can expect as antimicrobial resistance (AMR) becomes more prevalent.	多重抗药性结核病给各国公共卫生体系和经济造成了沉重负担，并且预示着富裕和贫穷国家都面临的抗生素耐药性（AMR）变得越来越普遍。


Without concerted action, drug-resistant strains of other common infections such as Staphylococcus Aureus or E. coli will become ever more common, with seismic effects on global health and health-care systems worldwide.	如果不采取联合行动，其他常见传染病（如金黄葡萄球菌和大肠杆菌）的耐药性菌株也将变得越来越常见，对全球卫生医疗体系造成巨大冲击。


As AMR renders established antibiotics ineffective, untreatable infections will make relatively routine procedures such as organ transplants or cancer chemotherapy increasingly risky.	抗生素耐药性表现为现有抗生素无法起作用，它将导致不可治愈的传染病，令相对常规的手术，如器官移植或癌症化疗，变得更加危险。


The human and economic toll of rising AMR could easily spiral out of control: left unchecked, drug-resistant infections could claim ten million lives annually by 2050, with the cumulative cost in terms of global GDP reaching $100 trillion.	抗生素耐药性增加的人道和经济损失极易失控：如果不加遏制，2050年耐药性传染病将造成一千万人死亡，累计全球GDP损失高达100万亿美元。


Only by launching an effective response immediately can we avert a bleak future.	要想扭转不利局面，唯有立刻进行有效响应。


Fortunately, at the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, earlier this month, world leaders put AMR on the group’s agenda for the first time, signaling that the international community recognizes AMR as a real threat to global economic development and prosperity.	幸运的是，在本月初中国杭州举行的G20峰会上，世界领导人首次将抗生素耐药性列入G20集团议程，这表明国际社会已将抗生素耐药性视为全球经济繁荣与发展的真正威胁。


The G20 also made the largest effort to date to replenish stalled pharmaceutical-development pipelines for new antibiotics (which are urgently needed to replace drugs that have become ineffective) and to roll out diagnostic tests enabling clinicians to use the drugs they have more effectively.	G20还做出了有史以来最大的努力重启停滞的新抗生素药物研发渠道（我们急需它们来替换已经无效的药物）、开展皮试以使临床医生更加有效地使用新抗生素。


This week’s United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York presents another opportunity for global leadership on AMR.	本周在纽约举行的联合国大会是全球领导层在抗生素耐用性问题上的又一次机会。


There, too, the issue will be on the agenda for the first time, with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and world leaders set to pledge to confront rising drug resistance at a major high-level meeting.	该问题也是第一次列入联大议程，秘书长潘基文和世界领导人将召开重要高级别会议承诺直面日益严重的抗药性问题。


To stymie AMR, the UN must build on the work that the G20 started.	为了阻碍抗生素耐药性，联合国必须在G20所开启的工作的基础上更进一步。


As the largest, most inclusive global-governance forum we have, the UN is the only institution that can marshal the resources and leadership commitments the problem demands.	联合国是规模最大、最包容的全球治理论坛，也是唯一能够给予该问题所要求的资源和领导力承诺的机构。


But the UN will be effective only if it takes some crucial steps.	但联合国必须采取一些关键步骤才能取得效果。


First, UN member states should begin to integrate their responses to AMR across all regulatory bodies and relevant sectors, including health care, agriculture, and finance.	首先，联合国成员应该开始整合各个监管机构和相关行业的抗生素耐药性应对措施，包括医疗业、农业、金融业等。


The UN is uniquely positioned to help countries do this.	地位独特的联合国能够助各国一臂之力。


It can convene the world’s leaders and foster international and inter-organizational cooperation on global economic and social problems; and it can tap the power of its own agencies to mobilize global resources against AMR.	联合国可以召开世界领导人会议、促进全球经济和社会问题上的国际和跨组织合作、利用其自身机构的力量动员全球资源遏制看胜诉耐药性。


Second, to keep things on track, the UN should establish clear benchmarks, based on measurable outcomes, and it should commit to putting AMR back on the General Assembly’s agenda every two years.	其次，要让局面可控，联合国应该制定基于可测结果的明确的基准，并且应该承诺每两年将抗生素耐药性列入脸大议程一次。


This would create a framework for measuring global progress, while also sending a strong message that the UN is in it for the long haul, and that AMR should be a high priority for the next secretary-general.	这将形成一个衡量全球进展的框架，同时也释放出强烈的信号表明联合国对此将做长远打算，抗生素耐药性应该成为下一任秘书长的重中之重。


Finally, the UN should appoint a Special Envoy for AMR to ensure continued progress in the coming years.	最后，联合国应该任命一位抗生素耐药性特使以确保未来多年的持续进步。


The envoy would need to be defined as a high-level position, authorized to work with countries and multilateral governance bodies to maintain momentum in the battle against AMR.	特使应该具有高级别地位，获得授权与国家和多边治理机构合作以保持与抗生素耐药性斗争的势头。


We can now be cautiously optimistic that AMR is finally getting the global attention it deserves.	现在，我们可以谨慎乐观地认为抗生素耐药性问题终于获得了应有的国际关注。


But the world’s attention can be all too fleeting, as those of us who have lived through previous and current debates about infectious disease know all too well.	但国际关注很有可能是一阵风，我们经历过多次从前和当下关于传染病的争论，对此早已见怪不怪。


If we fail to hold our leaders’ feet to the fire, the consequences for everyone could be deadly.	如果我们不能保持对领导人的压力，所有人都将承担极其可怕的后果。


The Anti-Science Seed Treaty	与科学精神相悖的种子条约


STANFORD – In September, the United States ratified the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, known as the International Seed Treaty.	斯坦福——今年9月，美国批准了粮食和农业植物遗传资源国际条约，该条约亦称国际种子条约。


Like so many international agreements crafted under the auspices of the United Nations, it is severely flawed.	像联合国主持制定的许多国际协议一样，这份协议存在严重的问题。


Indeed, the Seed Treaty is a politically correct, anti-technology fiasco.	事实上，这份种子条约可以说是一份政治正确、但却违背技术规律的失败的条约。


To be sure, the treaty, which entered into force in 2004, emanates from some laudable intentions.	可以肯定，这份于2004年签订的条约其本意值得赞誉。


But it is ultimately a jumble of pie-in-the-sky aspirations, translated into draconian legal constraints on the exchange of genetic resources (mainly seeds) among countries.	但它却最终沦为一堆空头支票式的希望，并转化为对国家间遗传资源（以种子为主）交换的苛刻的法律束缚。


The unreality of the treaty’s goals comes through in the official statement of its objectives: “the conservation and sustainable use of all plant genetic resources for food and agriculture and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of their use, in harmony with the Convention on Biological Diversity, for sustainable agriculture and food security.”	条约目标的正式声明体现了条约的非现实性：“保护并可持续利用所有粮食和农业植物遗传资源，公正和平等地享有相关应用所产生的收益，遵守生物多样性公约，并实现农业和粮食安全的长期持续。 ”


The guiding principle of the Seed Treaty is that genetic resources fall within the “sovereign right” of member states (that is, governments).	总之，条约的指导原则是遗传资源是属于成员国（即政府）的“主权权利”。


This amounts to an explicit rejection of the long-standing understanding that genetic resources in plants and animals are the “common heritage of humanity.”	这相当于明确否认动植物资源是“人类共同遗产”的长期解释。


It defies the notion that certain global resources, regarded as beneficial to all, should not be unilaterally exploited and monopolized by individuals, states, corporations, or other entities, but rather should be managed in ways that benefit all of humanity.	它违反了被公认为对全人类有益的某些全球资源不应���个人、国家、企业或其他实体所单方面开发和垄断的理念，过去的认知是这些资源应当以有利于全人类的方式来进行管理。


The Seed Treaty was motivated by fear of “biopiracy” – the pilfering of the world’s genetic resources by agricultural seed companies, which could then claim patents on them and wield monopoly control.	种子条约背后的动因是恐惧“生物剽窃”——即农业种子公司偷盗世界遗传资源，然后要求对其申请专利并行使垄断控制。


But, though accusations of biopiracy may have emotional appeal, impartial analyses have shown that they have little factual basis.	但尽管指控生物剽窃可能符合某些人的情感诉求，但公正的分析显示这样的做法不具备事实基础。


In fact, biopiracy is rare – so rare that it can be dealt with directly.	事实上，生物剽窃行为十分罕见——因为罕见所以可以直接处理。


Instead, the world created a baroque, bureaucratic, politicized system that systematically inhibits scientific research, plant breeding, and the creation of intellectual property.	相反，世界却创造了一套复杂、官僚和政治化的制度系统，对科学研究、植物育种和知识产权创造进行全方位限制。


The Seed Treaty achieves this by establishing a multilateral system for access to a negotiated list of agricultural genetic resources.	种子条约通过制定限制进入农业遗传资源谈判清单的多边体系来实现这一目的。


The Seed Treaty also brought under the control of its parties and secretariat the 15 research institutions that comprise the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), an influential global research partnership.	种子条约缔约国及秘书处还控制着组成国际农业研究磋商小组（CGIAR）的15家研究机构，上述研究合作机制具有全球影响力。


When a country ratifies the Seed Treaty, it agrees that its own seed banks – in the US, the repository at Fort Collins, Colorado – will adhere to the same rules as the CGIAR centers.	如果某国批准种子条约，相当于同意其本国种子库——如美国科罗拉多州科林斯堡种子库——将遵守与国际农业研究磋商小组相同的规则。


But common rules are little help.	而相同规则却带不来太多帮助。


Unfortunately, as a result of the Seed Treaty, countries increasingly treat their genetic resources like a dog treats a bone: no sharing allowed, even among their own scientists and plant breeders, while most international exchanges of genetic resources have been shut down over the last 12 years.	不幸的是，由于种子条约，各国对待本国的基因资源越来越像狗对待骨头：即使在本国科学家和植物育种人员之间也不许分享，而过去十二年来绝大多数国际基因资源交换一直处于停滞状态。