The ECB’s defense was that that the program was the only way to move inflation closer to its target of approximately 2%.	欧洲央行的辩词是，该计划是让通货膨胀接近其2%左右的目标的唯一办法。


Moreover, it pointed out, it was merely following the example of other major central banks, including the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and especially the US Federal Reserve, whose program of quantitative easing (QE) entailed the purchase of more than $2 trillion worth of long-term securities from 2008 to 2012.	此外，欧洲央行还指出，这只是效仿其他主要央行的做法，包括英格兰银行、日本银行以及（特别是）美联储，其中后者的量化宽松计划在2008—2012年间购买了价值超过2万亿美元的长期证券。


Legal uncertainty aside, whether the ECB’s decision to pursue QE can be justified ultimately depends on its impact.	抛却不确定性不谈，欧洲央行采取量化宽松的决定是否有道理，最终取决于它的影响。


But, after six months, that impact remains difficult to assess.	但是，六个月过去了，其影响仍难以评估。


One reason for this is that long-term interest rates are affected not just by the actual bond purchases, but also by financial markets’ expectations about future monetary policy.	一个原因是长期利率不仅受实际债券购买量的影响，也受到金融市场对未来货币政策预期的影响。


Indeed, just one day after the ECB made its announcement – and weeks before the purchases began – interest rates fell by a fraction of a percentage point throughout the eurozone.	事实上，在欧洲央行宣布其购买计划一天后——实际购买操作要在几周后才开始——整个欧元区的利率应声下跌了不到一个百分点。


When the purchases began, rates did continue to fall for a few weeks, so much so that many were concerned that there would not be enough German bonds to meet the ECB’s country-debt quota (determined according to eurozone member states’ GDP and population).	当购买操作开始时，利率的确继续下跌了几个星期，以至于许多人担心找不到足够多的德国债券满足欧洲央行的国家债务配额（根据欧元区成员国GDP和人口确定）。


But rates have since risen again, and have now returned, in real terms, to pre-QE levels.	但随后利率回升，用真实值衡量，现在已经恢复到量化宽松前的水平。


In this sense, the ECB’s bond-buying program has been a failure.	从这个角度讲，欧洲央行的债券购买计划是一场失败。


Other indicators, however, paint a different picture.	但是，其他指标带来的是不同的图景。


Notably, price growth turned positive last month, suggesting that the threat of deflation has been eliminated.	值得关注的是，价格增长已在上个月由负转正，标明通缩威胁已经消除。


This has prompted a modest uptick in expected inflation – the ECB’s favorite measure of price stability – not for the immediate future, but in five years, and then for five years.	这略微提高了预期通胀——欧洲央行最喜欢的物价稳定指标——但不是即期通胀，而是五年后的五年期通胀。


In concrete terms, the ECB is measuring its policy’s success today according to the expected inflation rate in 2020-2025.	从具体情况看，欧洲央行根据2020—2025年的预期通胀率衡量今天政策的成功。


This figure, calculated from the prices of different types of indexed and non-indexed five- and ten-year bonds, is based on the somewhat heroic assumption that all of the markets for these bonds work efficiently.	这一指标——从不同类型的指数和非指数五年期和十年期债券的价格算得——基于一个过于大胆的假设，即所有这些债券的市场都有效运行。


This presents a fundamental contradiction.	这带来了一个根本矛盾。


QE is supposed to work via “portfolio balance effects,” which implies that markets are not fully efficient: purchases of longer-term bonds affect financial conditions by changing the types and quantity of financial assets the public holds.	量化宽松应该通过“投资组合平衡效应”起作用，这意味着市场不是完全有效的：购买长期债券通过改变公众持有的金融资产类型和数量影响金融环境。


How can one use market prices as an indicator of inflation far into the future and simultaneously justify QE by claiming that most investors stick to certain asset classes and thus do not follow market signals efficiently?	怎么能一边将市场价格作为遥远未来的通胀的指标，同时又认为大部分投资者将坚持持有某些类型的资产，因此不会有效跟随市场信号，以此来论证量化宽松的合理性呢？


Another problem with using the five-year, five-year-forward rate of expected inflation to gauge QE’s effectiveness is that the rate is correlated with oil prices.	使用五年后的五年期预期通胀率作为量化宽松效果指标的另一个问题是这一通胀率与油价相关。


Indeed, when oil prices fell last year, so did inflation expectations (measured however imperfectly).	事实上，当去年石油价格下跌时，通胀预期也下降（不管其测量多么不完美）。


And the ECB’s QE announcement coincided with the beginning of the oil-price recovery, which could be expected to increase inflation expectations somewhat.	欧洲央行宣布量化宽松恰逢油价反弹，而这在某种程度上将提高通胀预期。


With such coincidences and contradictions arising in nearly every aspect of the QE debate, it seems that evaluating the policy’s effectiveness is more of an art than a science.	量化宽松在争论的几乎每一个方面几乎都存在类似巧合和矛盾，这样看来，评估该政策效果更多地是一种艺术而不是科学。


Unfortunately, this leaves plenty of room for distortion and bias.	不幸的是，这造成了巨大的扭曲和偏颇空间。


Most glaring is QE supporters’ tendency to ascribe any decline in interest rates before the policy was announced to market participants’ expectations that QE would be coming.	最令人关注的是，量化宽松支持者总是将任何政策宣布前的利率下降归结为市场参与者预期量化宽松即将来临。


Yet they do not apply the same reasoning to the decline in inflation expectations that occurred during the same period.	但对于同期发生的通胀预期下降现象，他们并不那么看。


They have followed the same logic since the purchases began, ignoring recent increases in interest rates, while lauding the small rise in inflation expectations as proof of QE’s effectiveness.	购买操作开始后，他们继续着这套逻辑，忽视最近的利率升高现象，而将通胀预期的小幅增加归功于量化宽松的效果。


In reality, of course, QE – whether the expectation or execution of it – would affect both interest rates, and the inflation expectations that are derived from them.	当然，在现实中，量化宽松——不管是预期还是实施——同时影响利率和由��率决定的通胀预期。


So, if ECB President Mario Draghi wants to highlight the fact that nominal interest rates are lower today than last August, he must also acknowledge that, given low inflation expectations, real interest rates have moved little.	因此，如果欧洲央行行长德拉吉想强调今天的名义利率低于去年8月的事实，他也必须承认，由于低通胀预期，真实利率基本上没有变化。


But such pragmatic thinking has been sorely missing from discussions about QE.	但这一务实思考在关于量化宽松的讨论中难得一见。


Instead, each side has caricatured the other: supporters emphasize that QE has nowhere led to runaway inflation, while opponents point out that nowhere has QE alone reignited robust growth.	相反，各方都在相互讽刺：支持者强调量化宽松没有导致恶性通胀，而反对者指出量绝不是量化宽松单枪匹马重振了强健增长。


In fact, there has been neither inflation nor growth: central banks can seemingly pour hundreds of billions of dollars, euros, or yen into the market with little discernible effect.	事实上，既没有通胀，也没有增长：央行也许可以像市场注入数千亿美元、欧元或日元而不引起看得见的市场效应。


So QE basically consists of an exchange of two low-yielding assets – long-terms bonds and central-bank deposits.	因此，量化宽松本质上是两种低收益率资产——长期债券和央行存款的交换。


In broad and efficient markets, that exchange does not mean much.	在广义而有效的市场中，这一交换没有多大意义。


China’s Internet Revolution	中国的互联网革命


BEIJING – It is a story that has played out worldwide.	北京—这是一个在世界舞台上上演过的故事。


Internet adoption reaches critical mass, changing how business is conducted and creating billion-dollar markets for digital goods and services – and causing massive “creative destruction.”	互联网接入已经达到了临界值，改变着商业模式，为数字产品和服务创造着数十亿美元的市场——也引发着大规模“创新性破坏”。


It is now China’s turn to experience this phenomenon – only, in China’s case, it is occurring amid broad economic transformation and rapid social change.	如今，轮到中国经历这一现象了——只有在中国，这一现象发生在经济转型和快速社会变化的大背景中。


The collision of these forces could fundamentally transform the world’s second-largest economy.	这些力量的碰撞可能从根本上改变世界第二大经济体。


With 632 million users, China’s Internet has already produced a dynamic technology sector, thriving social networks, and the world’s largest e-tail (consumer-facing e-commerce) market.	中国拥有6. 32亿互联网用户，这催生了充满活力的科技行业、繁荣的社交网络和世界最大的电子零售（面向消费者的电子商务）市场。


Global investors’ excitement about the IPO of China’s largest online retailer, Alibaba, reflects the scale of the economic value that has already been created.	全球投资者对中国最大在线零售商阿里巴巴IPO的热烈反应体现了互联网已经创造出多么大的经济价值规模。


But most of the action so far has been on the consumer side.	但到目前为止，大部分活动都发生在消费端。


Key sectors, from manufacturing to health care, have not progressed beyond the early stages of the shift online.	从制造业到医疗业的各个重要行业都没有跨越向线上转型的早期阶段。


Indeed, as of 2012, only about one-quarter of China’s small and medium-size enterprises had started to use the Internet in areas like procurement, sales, and marketing – meaning that the most sweeping changes lie ahead.	事实上，截至2012年，只有大约一半中国中小企业开始利用互联网进行采购、销售和营销等活动——这意味着最激烈的变化还没有到来。


As traditional industries increase their usage of the Internet, they streamline their operations, find new methods of collaboration, and expand their reach via e-commerce – all of which accelerate productivity growth.	随着传统行业增加对互联网的使用程度，它们的经营也将流线化，找到新的整合方式，通过电子商务扩大接触面——所有这些都会促进生产率增长。


The McKinsey Global Institute projects that new Web applications could enable as much as 22% of China’s total GDP growth through 2025.	麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）预测，到2025年，新网络应用将让中国总GDP提高22%。


Beyond its effects on GDP and productivity, the Internet can also boost transparency and trust.	除了对GDP和生产率的作用，互联网还能提高透明度和信任。


E-tailing, for example, began with a cash-on-delivery business model.	比如，电子零售最初的形式是货到付款模式。


But, over time, online-payment platforms gained Chinese consumers’ trust, paving the way for explosive growth in e-tailing.	但是，随着时间的推移，在线支付平台获得了中国消费者的信任，为电子零售的爆发式增长铺平了道路。


Other industries are beginning to follow suit.	其他行业也开始跟进。


Online real-estate databases match buyers and sellers faster, while reducing price premiums stemming from information asymmetries.	在线地产数据库能更快地匹配买家和卖家，同时降低因信息不对称造成的价格升水。


Such platforms have been created for land auctions and foreclosures, as well as private transactions.	为土地拍卖、收回抵押品赎回权以及私人交易而设计的平台已经出现。


Similarly, China’s nascent used-car market stands to benefit significantly from the Internet revolution, as e-commerce boosts the transparency of vehicle listings and transactions, and new online tools help lenders acquire and analyze credit histories in a more detailed and sophisticated way.	类似地，方兴未艾的中国二手车市场也将从互联网革命中获益良多，因为电子商务增加了车辆挂牌和交易的透明度，新的在线工具也能帮助贷款人更详细、更成熟地收集和分析信用记录。


Of course, though the Internet can facilitate competition, forcing companies of all sizes to raise their game, building such a trust-based system is no easy feat.	当然，尽管互联网能增进竞争、迫使各种规模的公司勤修内功，但构建这样一个基于信任的体系决非易事。


Much of the Internet’s commercial potential stems from data collection, sharing, and analysis, all of which are fraught with privacy concerns.	互联网的商业潜力有很大一部分来自数据收集、共享和分析，而这三个方面都有隐私顾虑。


Though China’s government established preliminary rules governing online privacy in 2012, many gray areas remain, including basic issues like the types of information companies can share, how that information can be used, and what constitutes consumer consent.	尽管中国政府在2012年就建立了初步的在线隐私规则，但仍存在许多灰色地带，包括公司可以共享何种形式的信息、这些信息可以如何使用、怎样才算获得消费者同意等。


In addition to clarifying the legal framework for data sharing, the government can set an example by using the Internet to render its own data collection and transaction records more uniform and systematic.	除了厘清数据共享的法律框架，政府还可以利用互联网更加统一、系统地提供其自身的数据收集和交易记录，以此树立一个榜样。


Moreover, by making some of its own data sets publicly available, it can kick-start an open-data movement and pave the way for the emergence of related industries.	此外，通过让公众查访某些政府数据集，政府可以借此启动一个开放数据运动，并为相关行业的崛起铺平道路。


For Chinese firms, such a movement will have to be accompanied by a fundamental change in mentality.	对中国企业来说，这样一场运动必须伴随观念的根本性变化而发生。


Instead of focusing on large-scale, one-size-fits-all production, firms must use the data they receive to glean more detailed insights about consumers’ preferences and expectations – and expand their portfolios to include the niche products that consumers crave.	企业不应该在关注大规模、一刀切产品，而应该利用获得的数据更细致地洞察消费者的偏好和预期——并扩大产品组合，将消费者所渴望的利基产品包括进来。


Given that the Internet empowers consumers to compare offerings directly and choose the most economical and attractive option, firms that attempt to adhere to business as usual will quickly be overtaken by their competitors.	互联网让消费者能够直接比较不同产品，从中挑选最划算、最具吸引力的一个，因此用平常眼光看待在线商机的企业很快就会被竞争者所取代。


Of course, such intense competition will erode firms’ profit margins – a trend that they can offset by integrating Internet technologies into back-office functions and logistics.	当然，如此激烈的竞争会腐蚀企业的利润——这一影响可以通过用互联网科技整合后台运行和物流来抵消。


Another fundamental shift to be expected from the rise of China’s Internet economy is that the most innovative and flexible – not necessarily the largest or most established – enterprises will be the most successful.	中国互联网经济兴盛的另一个可以预见的根本性变化是最具创新性、最灵活——但未必是最大、最老牌——的企业将获得最大的成功。


The Internet enables startups to scale up rapidly and at a low cost, unburdened by legacy systems and traditional methods of doing business, while blurring the lines between sectors.	互联网让创业企业能够以低成本迅速扩张，摆脱旧体系和传统生意经，同时也让不同行业之间的界线变得模糊。


As a result, new players can emerge suddenly to challenge long-established institutions.	因此，新来者可能一夜之间对老牌长青机构构成挑战。


Nowhere is this more apparent than in banks’ current scramble to defend their territory from online financial-services providers.	最明显的例子便是银行纷纷面临来自在线金融服务提供商的挑战。


The Internet revolution will also disrupt the labor market, with some jobs being automated away and companies facing a shortage of technologically proficient workers.	互联网革命还将扰动劳动力市场，一些岗位将被自动化，而公司将面临技术熟练工人（technologically proficient worker）短缺。


A company’s success will depend on its employees’ willingness to acquire new skills, undertake new roles, and adapt to the faster pace and unfamiliar demands of the digital marketplace.	公司的成功将取决于雇员是否愿意学习新技能、承担新角色、适应数字市场更快的节奏和陌生的需求。


But the onus of adaptation does not rest entirely on workers.	但适应的负担并非完全需要工人来承担。


Policymakers and business leaders must ensure that displaced workers have options for retraining, and that the education system is producing enough technology-savvy workers.	决策者和商业领袖必须保证被取代的工人能获得再培训机会，以及教育体系能产生技术上足够擅长的工人。


The Internet will not only create economic momentum for China in the years ahead; it will help to transform an unsustainable growth model based on fixed investment and cheap labor.	互联网不仅将在未来数年中位中国创造经济动力； 它还将有助于基于固定资产投资和廉价劳动力的不可持续的增长模式的转变。


By unleashing the economy’s productivity-growth potential, the Internet can help China attain its goal of developing a growth model that can lift the country to high-income status.	互联网可以释放经济的生产率增长潜力，从而有助于中国实现转变增长模式、买入高收入国家行列的目标。


Monetary Mystification	货币迷局


NEW YORK – Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic took extraordinary monetary-policy measures in September: the long awaited “QE3” (the third dose of quantitative easing by the United States Federal Reserve), and the European Central Bank’s announcement that it will purchase unlimited volumes of troubled eurozone members’ government bonds.	纽约—大西洋两岸的央行在9月份都采取了不同寻常的货币政策措施：让人们久等的“QE3”（美联储的第三轮量化宽松），以及欧洲央行宣布将无限量购买受困欧元区成员国的国债。


Markets responded euphorically, with stock prices in the US, for example, reaching post-recession highs.	市场对此反应热烈，比如，美国股市重新回到危机前的高点。


Others, especially on the political right, worried that the latest monetary measures would fuel future inflation and encourage unbridled government spending.	其他人，特别是政治右翼，担心最近的货币措施会助长未来通胀、鼓励不受约束的政府支出。


In fact, both the critics’ fears and the optimists’ euphoria are unwarranted.	事实上，批评者的担心和乐观者的热情都不是板上钉钉之事。


With so much underutilized productive capacity today, and with immediate economic prospects so dismal, the risk of serious inflation is minimal.	如今，未利用产能规模庞大，而即期经济前景黯淡，这意味着严重通胀的风险极小。


Nonetheless, the Fed and ECB actions sent three messages that should have given the markets pause.	尽管如此，美联储和欧洲央行的行动给出了三个本应让市场冷静下来的信号。


First, they were saying that previous actions have not worked; indeed, the major central banks deserve much of the blame for the crisis.	首先，它们说，此前的动作并未取得成效； 事实上，主要央行要承担危机的主要责任。


But their ability to undo their mistakes is limited.	但它们收回错误的能力太差了。


Second, the Fed’s announcement that it will keep interest rates at extraordinarily low levels through mid-2015 implied that it does not expect recovery anytime soon.	其次，美联储宣布将在2015年之前将利率维持在极低水平，这意味着它预期短期内不会有复苏发生。


That should be a warning for Europe, whose economy is now far weaker than America’s.	对于经济远弱于美国的欧洲来说，这是个警示信号。


Finally, the Fed and the ECB were saying that markets will not quickly restore full employment on their own.	最后，美联储和欧洲央行说，市场不可能很快自力更生恢复充分就业。


A stimulus is needed.	必须予以刺激。


That should serve as a rejoinder to those in Europe and America who are calling for just the opposite – further austerity.	这不啻完全否定了欧洲和美国关于采取相反措施——进一步紧缩的呼声。


But the stimulus that is needed – on both sides of the Atlantic – is a fiscal stimulus.	但大西洋两岸所需要的刺激是财政刺激。


Monetary policy has proven ineffective, and more of it is unlikely to return the economy to sustainable growth.	货币政策已证明是无效的，更多货币手段并不会让经济回到可持续增长上来。


In traditional economic models, increased liquidity results in more lending, mostly to investors and sometimes to consumers, thereby increasing demand and employment.	根据国际经济学模型，流动性的增加会增加借贷——主要流向投资者，也有一些流向消费者——从而增加需求和就业。


But consider a case like Spain, where so much money has fled the banking system – and continues to flee as Europe fiddles over the implementation of a common banking system.	但考虑以下西班牙的例子。 大量资金从西班牙银行系统中出逃，而随着欧洲在共同银行系统的问题上继续扯皮，外逃之势还在延续。


Just adding liquidity, while continuing current austerity policies, will not reignite the Spanish economy.	在维持目前紧缩政策的局面下增加流动性并不能提振西班牙经济。


So, too, in the US, the smaller banks that largely finance small and medium-size enterprises have been all but neglected.	美国也是如此，主要向中小企业提供贷款的小银行被完全忽视了。


The federal government – under both President George W. Bush and Barack Obama – allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up the mega-banks, while allowing hundreds of these crucially important smaller lenders to fail.	联邦政府——不管是小布什政府还是奥巴马政府——用数千亿美元支持大银行，却放任数百家具有关键重要性的小贷款商倒闭。


But lending would be inhibited even if the banks were healthier.	但即使银行变得更加健康，贷款也不会有很大起色。


After all, small enterprises rely on collateral-based lending, and the value of real estate – the main form of collateral – is still down one-third from its pre-crisis level.	毕竟，小企业依赖于抵押贷款，而房地产——最重要的抵押品——价格距离危机前水平仍有三分之一。


Moreover, given the magnitude of excess capacity in real estate, lower interest rates will do little to revive real-estate prices, much less inflate another consumption bubble.	此外，房地产业产能严重过剩，这意味着低利率并不能提振房地产价格，从而不能吹起新的消费泡沫。


Of course, marginal effects cannot be ruled out: small changes in long-term interest rates from QE3 may lead to a little more investment; some of the rich will take advantage of temporarily higher stock prices to consume more; and a few homeowners will be able to refinance their mortgages, with lower payments allowing them to boost consumption as well.	当然，边际效应是不可忽视的：QE3所带来的长期利率的微小变化可能会催生更多的投资； 一些富人会利用暂时性的股票价格高企更多地消费；


But most of the wealthy know that temporary measures result only in a fleeting blip in stock prices – hardly enough to support a consumption splurge.	但大部分富豪明白，暂时性手段只能造成股价的暂时波动，远远不足以支持炫耀性消费。


Moreover, reports suggest that few of the benefits of lower long-term interest rates are filtering through to homeowners; the major beneficiaries, it seems, are the banks.	此外，报告显示，长期利率下降的好处只有很少一部分流向了屋主； 最大的受益者似乎是银行。


Many who want to refinance their mortgages still cannot, because they are “underwater” (owing more on their mortgages than the underlying property is worth).	许多想对按揭进行再融资的人并没有成功，因为它们的房产仍然“在水面以下”（即他们欠银行的钱比房屋的当前价值还多）。


In other circumstances, the US would benefit from the exchange-rate weakening that follows from lower interest rates – a kind of beggar-thy-neighbor competitive devaluation that would come at the expense of America’s trading partners.	在其他环境中，美国可以从低利率导致的汇率贬值中获利——即以邻为壑式的竞争性贬值，受害者将是美国的贸易伙伴。


But, given lower interest rates in Europe and the global slowdown, the gains are likely to be small even here.	但是，由于欧洲利率也很低，而全球经济正在减速，美国得到的好处将十分有限。


Some worry that the fresh liquidity will lead to worse outcomes – for example, a commodity boom, which would act much like a tax on American and European consumers.	一些人担心新的流动性会带来更糟糕的结果——比如相当于对美国和欧洲消费者征税的商品繁荣。


Older people, who were prudent and held their money in government bonds, will see lower returns – further curtailing their consumption.	勤俭节约、将钱都投给国债的老一辈人将承受更低的回报，从而进一步抑制他们的消费。


And low interest rates will encourage firms that do invest to spend on fixed capital like highly automated machines, thereby ensuring that, when recovery comes, it will be relatively jobless.	低利率还会鼓励正在做投资的企业将钱投给固定资本，比如高度自动化的机器，这意味着即使经济复苏，失业率也会相对较高。


In short, the benefits are at best small.	简言之，就是好处极其有限。


In Europe, monetary intervention has greater potential to help – but with a similar risk of making matters worse.	在欧洲，货币干预提振经济的潜力更大，但也存在类似的让情况更糟糕的风险。


To allay anxiety about government profligacy, the ECB built conditionality into its bond-purchase program.	为了减轻人们对政府恣意挥霍的忧虑，欧洲央行在其债券购买计划中加入了条件。


But if the conditions operate like austerity measures – imposed without significant accompanying growth measures – they will be more akin to bloodletting: the patient must risk death before receiving genuine medicine.	但如果这些条件实施起来和紧缩政策无异——没有相应的增长措施作为补充——则更有可能起到放血的作用：病人很有可能在获得真正的灵药之前就死掉了。


Fear of losing economic sovereignty will make governments reluctant to ask for ECB help, and only if they ask will there be any real effect.	担心失去经济主权让然各国政府不愿向欧洲央行求助，而只有他们开口求助，才会有真正的效果。


There is a further risk for Europe: If the ECB focuses too much on inflation, while the Fed tries to stimulate the US economy, interest-rate differentials will lead to a stronger euro (at least relative to what it otherwise would be), undermining Europe’s competitiveness and growth prospects.	欧洲还有令一个风险：如果欧洲央行过度关注通胀，那么当美联储试图刺激美国经济时，利差会导致欧元升值（至少相对于不那么做的情形），从而破坏欧洲的竞争力和增长前景。


For both Europe and America, the danger now is that politicians and markets believe that monetary policy can revive the economy.	对欧洲和美国来说，现在的危险是政客和市场相信货币政策可以拯救经济。


Unfortunately, its main impact at this point is to distract attention from measures that would truly stimulate growth, including an expansionary fiscal policy and financial-sector reforms that boost lending.	不幸的是，目前货币政策的主要效应将是将人们的注意力从真正可以刺激增长的措施（包括扩张性财政政策和提振贷款的金融部门改革）上移开。


The current downturn, already a half-decade long, will not end any time soon.	此次衰退已经延续了五年，而且仍不会马上结束。


That, in a nutshell, is what the Fed and the ECB are saying.	这其实就是美联储和欧洲央行晦涩地表达的意思。


The sooner our leaders acknowledge it, the better.	我们的领导人越早承认这一点越好。


Why is Monetary Policy Underrated?	为什么说货币政策被低估了？


TOKYO – Last month – just a few days before the European Central Bank announced its intention to initiate quantitative easing (QE) – I attended a seminar in Geneva with international journalists, policymakers, and investors.	东京—上个月——就在欧洲央行宣布有意采取量化宽松政策前几天——我与国际记者、决策者和投资者一起出席了一次日内瓦讨论会。


The discussions there, much like those in Japan before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched his groundbreaking economic-reform strategy in 2012, reflected an inadequate understanding of unconventional monetary policy's transformative potential.	此次讨论与2012年安倍晋三首相采取开创性经济改革战略前的情况极为相似，反映出对非常规货币政策的变革潜力的认识不足。


Indeed, at the seminar, European economists and journalists – especially the Germans, and even some of the Britons in the room – adopted a dismissive tone.	事实上，在讨论会上，欧洲经济学家和记者——特别是德国人，甚至也有一些英国人——表现得相当轻蔑。


“Monetary policy's power is limited, particularly when the interest rate is so low," some said. “We cannot count on accommodative monetary policy to spur a portfolio reshuffling," others added.	“货币政策的力量有限，特别是在利率如此低的情况下，”有人说，“我们不能指望适应性货币政策刺激投资组合的调整，”另一些人说。


These statements were all too familiar – and somewhat surprising, given the progress that Japan's ongoing QE-based strategy has enabled the country to make.	这些说法已是耳熟能详——从某种程度上说有些令人惊奇，因为日本正在实施的基于量化宽松的战略让它取得了长足的进步。


Clearly, many in Europe lack an understanding of the history and significance of so-called “Abenomics"; but such an understanding should inform their monetary-policy debates.	显然，许多欧洲人不理解所谓的“安倍经济学”的历史与重要性； 但若能理解，将有助于他们的货币政策讨论。


In 2001, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was struggling to find ways to help the economy escape recession.	2001年，日本银行忙于寻找帮助经济摆脱衰退之道。


Having already reduced the target short-term interest rate to very close to zero, it turned to open market operations – specifically, purchasing long-term government bonds and increasing bank reserves held at the BOJ – in order to increase the money supply and reduce long-term interest rates.	短期利率已经降低到十分接近于零的水平，因此日本银行开始进行公开市场操作——具体而言，即买入长期政府债券和增加日本银行持有的银行准备金——以期增加货币供给、降低长期利率。


But the BOJ's attempt at QE proved to be too little too late, and no recovery materialized.	但日本银行的量化宽松尝试来得太晚，力度也太小，没有造成任何复苏。


Ben Bernanke, then the chairman of Princeton University's economics department, took note of this failing, declaring that the BOJ should pursue a more aggressive monetary policy.	时任普林斯顿大学经济学系主任的本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）注意到日本银行的失败，指出日本银行应该追求更积极的货币政策。


When the US investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, triggering a global financial crisis, Bernanke – who had since become US Federal Reserve Chair – took his own advice, instituting a bold QE program to revive the United States' moribund economy.	2008年，当美国投资银行雷曼兄弟公司倒闭并引发金融危机时，伯南克——当时已是美联储主席——采取了自己的建议，采取了果断的量化宽松措施拯救垂死的美国经济。


The United Kingdom, too, pursued robust QE – and, like the US, it is now experiencing relatively strong economic growth (which is why the British participants in Geneva should have known better).	英国也追求了强劲的量化宽松——并且与美国一样，也因此经历了相对强势的经济增长（正因如此，日内瓦讨论会的英国与会者应该更加理解安倍经济学）。


Japan, by contrast, hesitated to expand its money supply substantially, leaving the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar to appreciate to 76 (from less than 100 before the Lehman crisis), and causing GDP growth to decline further.	相反，日本在大幅扩大货币供给方面出现了犹豫，导致日元兑美元汇率升值至76（雷曼兄弟危机前汇率为接近100），GDP增长也出现进一步下滑。


In 2009, Japan's economy was performing at 8% below potential, even though its financial system was sound.	2009年，日本经济表现比潜在水平低8%，尽管其金融系统仍然牢固。


In short, the Japanese economy suffered far more than the US and UK economies, which were directly affected by the Lehman shock.	简言之，日本经济比受雷曼冲击波直接影响的美国和英国经济损失更大。


A small group of economists, including me, recognized this discrepancy, and argued strenuously that monetary easing was critical to fight deflation and extreme currency appreciation.	包括我在内的少数经济学家注意到这一矛盾，大力指出货币跨暗送对于抵抗通缩和极端货币升值至关重要。


But our arguments were consistently dismissed.	但我们的观点一直被忽视。


Sound familiar?	听起来很熟悉吧？


Abe changed everything.	安倍改变了一切。


With monetary policy as the basis of his political agenda, he became Prime Minister (for the second time) in December 2012.	以货币政策为其政治日程的基础的他在2012年12月（第二次）成为日本首相。


Soon after, QE was off and running.	不久，量化宽松便已启动。


Almost immediately, the yen depreciated, exports increased, and the stock market soared.	日元应声贬值，出口应声增加，股市应声反弹。


After nearly two decades of recession, the Japanese economy was growing again – and it had Abenomics to thank for it.	在经历了近二十年的衰退后，日本经济再次开始增长——安倍经济学居功至伟。


Of course, everything did not go entirely smoothly; a 3% consumption-tax hike, which had been put in place by the previous government, interrupted Japan's progress.	当然，并非一切都一帆风顺； 3%的消费税提升——这是前任政府定下的政策——阻碍了日本的进步。


And Japan still has a long way to go to achieve robust long-term economic growth, with the next phase of Abenomics – supply-side reforms – requiring the government to overcome resistance from bureaucrats and special interests.	并且日本距离实现强健长期经济增长的目标仍有很长的路要走，安倍经济学的下一阶段——供给端改革需要政府克服来自官僚和特殊利益的抵抗。


Nonetheless, QE's effectiveness was clear – so clear, in fact, that last October the BOJ announced an additional round of it.	尽管如此，量化宽松效果显著，以至于去年10月日本银行宣布启动新一轮量化宽松。


Judging by the overwhelming victory of Abe's Liberal Democratic Party in a snap general election two months later, Japanese voters are satisfied with this approach.	两个月后，安倍的自民党在大选中大获全胜，照此看，日本选民对安倍的方针颇为满意。


Now it is Europe's turn to benefit from the power of monetary policy.	现在，轮到欧洲从货币政策的力量中获益了。


But, for the ECB's plan to work, its QE must be robust – and that will require broad support.	但是，欧洲央行的计划要想起作用，量化宽松必须足够强劲才行——而这需要广泛的支持。


After all, eurozone monetary policy is the product of joint decision-making within the ECB governing council, where Germany's influence is strong.	毕竟，欧元区货币政策是欧洲央行理事会内部联合决策的产物，而德国在此过程中影响很大。


Given QE's success in the US, the UK, and Japan, attracting such support should, one might assume, be relatively easy.	量化宽松在美国、英国和日本都取得了成功，你也许认为照此看吸引支持相对而言应该不难。


Yet my experience in Geneva was not an isolated incident; many policymakers remain convinced that monetary policy is not all that powerful.	但我在日内瓦的经历绝非孤立事件； 许多决策者仍然认为货币政策根本无用。


At last year's World Knowledge Forum, several leading central bankers – including former BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, and former Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo – also dismissed the potential of unconventional monetary policy.	在去年的世界知识论坛（World Knowledge Forum）上，一些主要央行官员——包括前日本银行行长白川方明、前欧洲央行行长让-克劳德·特里谢（Jean-Claude Trichet）和前韩国央行行长金仲秀（Kim Choong-soo）——仍不承认非常规货币政策的潜力。


The belief that monetary policy does not matter is not just “the most dangerous idea in Federal Reserve economic history," as the economists Christina and David Romer have noted; it is exceedingly hazardous to any economy.	认为货币政策不重要不仅是“美联储经济史上最危险的观点”——经济学家克里斯蒂娜·罗墨（Christina Romer）和大卫·罗墨（David Romer）夫妇如是说——对于经济来说也十分危险。


Europe faces enough serious risks already; it should not needlessly add to them.	欧洲面临的风险已经十分严重，没有必要再添加一点风险。


The Shortcomings of Quantitative Easing in Europe	欧洲量化宽松的短处


CAMBRIDGE – Why has the US Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing been so much more successful than the version of QE implemented by the European Central Bank?	坎布里奇—为何美联储的量化宽松政策比欧洲央行成功那么多？


That intellectual question leads directly to a practical one: Will the ECB ever be able to translate quantitative easing into stronger economic growth and higher inflation?	这一理论问题直接引出了一个实践问题：欧洲央行到底是否能够将量化宽松转化为更强的经济增长和更高的通胀？


The Fed introduced quantitative easing – buying large quantities of long-term bonds and promising to keep short-term interest rates low for a prolonged period – after it concluded that the US economy was not responding adequately to traditional monetary policy and to the fiscal stimulus package enacted in 2009.	在美联储引入量化宽松——买入大量长期债券，并承诺在相当长的时间内保持短期利率低位——之前，它已判定美国经济对2009年所实施的传统货币政策和财政刺激计划反应不够强烈。


The Fed’s chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, reasoned that unconventional monetary policy would drive down long-term rates, inducing investors to shift from high-quality bonds to equities and other risky securities.	时任美联储主席伯南克（Ben Bernanke）认为非常规货币政策能降低长期利率，诱使投资者从高质量债券转移到股票和其他风险证券上。


This would drive up the value of those assets, increasing household wealth and therefore consumer spending.	这将推高其他资产的价值，增加家庭财富，从而提振消费支出。


The strategy worked well.	这一策略运转的很好。


Share prices rose 30% in 2013 alone, and house prices increased 13% in the same twelve months.	光是在2013年，股价就上涨30%，同期家庭收入增加13%。


As a result, the net worth of households increased by $10 trillion that year.	因此，当年家庭净财富增加了10万亿美元。


The rise in wealth induced consumers to increase spending, which restarted the usual expansionary multiplier process, with GDP up by 2.5% in 2013 and the unemployment rate falling from 8% to 6.7%.	财富的增长让消费者增加了支出，重新启动了常规扩张性乘数过程，2013年GDP增长2. 5%，失业率从8%下降到6.


The expansion continued in subsequent years, bringing the current unemployment rate down to 5% – and the unemployment rate among college graduates to just 2.5%.	7%。 扩张一直持续到此后数年，目前失业率已下降到5%——大学毕业生失业率则只有2.


The ECB has been following a similar strategy of large-scale asset purchases and extremely low (indeed negative) short-term interest rates.	欧洲央行效仿了类似的大规模买入资产和极低（实际为负）的短期利率策略。


But, although the policy is the same as the Fed’s, its purpose is very different.	但是，尽管政策和美联储一样，其目的却大不相同。


Because Europe lacks the widespread share ownership that exists in the United States, quantitative easing cannot be used to stimulate consumer spending by raising household wealth.	欧洲银行缺少向美国那样的多样化股份所有权，因此量化宽松不能用于通过增加家庭财富刺激消费支出。


Instead, a major if unspoken purpose of the ECB’s low-interest-rate policy has been to stimulate net exports by depressing the value of the euro.	相反，欧洲央行低利率政策的一个主要（但没有明说的）目的是通过抑制欧元价值刺激净出口。


The ECB succeeded in this, with the euro’s value falling by some 25% – from $1.40 in the summer of 2014 to $1.06 by the fall of 2015.	在这一点上，欧洲央行取得了成功，欧元贬值了25%左右——从2014年夏天的1欧元对1. 40美元下降到2015年秋天的1.


I have been an advocate of reducing the value of the euro for several years, so I think this strategy was a good one.	多年来，我一直支持欧元贬值，因此我认为这是个好策略。


But, although the fall in the value of the euro has stimulated the eurozone’s net exports, the impact on its members’ exports and GDP has been quite limited.	但是，尽管欧元贬值刺激了欧元区净出口，其对欧元区成员国出口和GDP的影响十分有限。


One reason for this is that much of the eurozone countries’ trade is with other eurozone countries that use the same currency.	一个原因是欧元区国家很大一部分贸易的对象是使用同一货币的其他欧元区国家。


Moreover, exports to the US don’t benefit much from the decline of the euro-dollar exchange rate.	此外，对美出口没有从欧元兑美元汇率下降中获得很多好处。


European exporters generally invoice their exports in dollars and adjust their dollar prices very slowly, a point made clear in an important paper that Gita Gopinath of Harvard presented at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference in August 2015.	欧洲出口商一般用美元开具出口发票，并且美元价格调整十分缓慢，哈佛大学的吉塔·戈平纳斯（Gita Gopinath）在2015年8月的美联储杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）会议上提交了一篇重要文章，清楚地论证了这一点。


As a result, total net exports from the eurozone rose less than €3 billion ($3.2 billion) between September 2014 and September 2015 – a negligible amount in an €11 trillion economy.	因此，在2014年9月至2015年9月间，欧元区总净出口只增加了不到30亿欧元——相较于11万亿欧元的经济规模可以忽略不计。


A further motive of the ECB’s bond purchases has been to increase the cash that eurozone banks have available to lend to businesses and households.	欧洲央行购买债券的进一步动机是增加欧元区银行可用于向企业和家庭贷款的现金。


But, as of now, there has been very little increase in such lending.	但是，从目前看，这类贷款几乎没有增加。


Finally, the ECB is eager to raise the eurozone inflation rate to its target of just under 2%.	最后，欧洲央行急切地要将欧元区通货膨胀率提高到略低于2%的目标水平。


In the US, the QE strategy has increased the “core” inflation rate – which excludes the direct effect of declining prices of energy and food – to 2.1% over the past 12 months.	在美国，量化宽松策略在过去12个月里将“核心”通胀率——不含能源和食品价格下降的直接影响——提高到2. 1%。


This has been a by-product of the increase in real demand, achieved by reducing unemployment to a level at which rising wages contribute to faster price growth.	这是实际需求升高的副产品，而后者是通过将失业下降到一定水平，从而工资上涨能够推动更快的价格增长实现的。


This strategy is unlikely to work in the eurozone, because the unemployment rate is still nearly 12%, about five percentage points higher than it was before the recession began.	这一策略在欧元区不可能起作用，因为欧元区失业率仍接近12%，比衰退前高出约五个百分点。


The ECB’s quantitative easing policy can probably achieve higher inflation only through the increase in import prices resulting from a decline in the value of the euro.	欧洲央行的量化宽松政策也许只能通过提高进口品价格（因为欧元贬值）实现更高的通胀。


This very limited process still leaves core inflation in the eurozone below 1%.	这一极为有限的过程导致欧元区核心通胀仍低于1%。


ECB President Mario Draghi recently responded to the new evidence of eurozone weakness and super-low inflation by indicating that the Bank is likely to ease monetary conditions further at its next policy-setting meeting in March.	欧洲央行行长德拉吉对欧元区疲软和极低通胀的新证据的最新反应是表示欧洲央行可能在3月份的下一次政策制定会议上进一步放松货币条件。


This could mean further reducing already-negative short-term interest rates and expanding and/or extending its bond-purchase program.	这可能意味着进一步降低已经为负的短期利率，并扩大并/或延长其债券购买计划。


Eurozone financial markets reacted in the expected way.	欧元区金融市场的反应符合预期。


Long-term interest rates fell, equity prices rose, and the euro declined relative to the dollar.	长期利率下降，股价上涨，欧元兑美元贬值。


But past experience and the reasons spelled out here suggest that these policies will do very little to increase real activity and price inflation in the eurozone.	但过去的经验和本文的逻辑表明，这些政策对于增加欧元区的实际活动和价格通胀将收效甚微。


To make real progress toward reviving their economies, the individual countries need to depend less on quantitative easing by the ECB and focus squarely on structural reforms and fiscal stimulus.	要实现重振经济的真正进步，个体国家必须减少对欧洲央行量化宽松的依赖，坚决地着重于结构改革和财政刺激。


China’s Inscrutable Contraction	中国难以捉摸的减速


CAMBRIDGE – While virtually every country in the world is trying to boost growth, China’s government is trying to slow it down to a sustainable level.	美国剑桥—全世界几乎所有国家都在试图提振增长，而中国却在试图让经济减速至可持续水平。


As China shifts to a more domestic-demand driven, services-oriented economy, a transition to slower trend growth is both inevitable and desirable.	随着中国向更依赖内需驱动的服务导向型经济转变，趋势增长降低既不可避免，也值得追求。


But the challenges are immense, and no one should take a soft landing for granted.	但挑战也是巨大的，决不能将软着陆视为理所当然。


As China’s economy grows relative to the economies of its trading partners, the efficacy of its export-led growth model must inevitably fade.	随着中国经济相对其贸易伙伴逐渐放缓，其出口拉动型增长模式的效率免不了会逐渐消失。


As a corollary, the returns on massive infrastructure investment, much of which is directed toward supporting export growth, must also fade.	因此，大规模基础设施投资——其中相当大的部分是为了支持出口增长——回报也必然会消失。


Consumption and quality of life need to rise, even as China’s air pollution and water shortages become more acute in many areas.	消费和生活品质需要提升，即便中国许多地区面临着日益尖锐的空气污染和水短缺问题。


But, in an economy where debt has exploded to more than 200% of GDP, it is not easy to rein in growth gradually without triggering widespread failure of ambitious investment projects.	但是，在一个债务已膨胀至超过GDP的200%的经济中，逐渐降低增长而不导致宏伟投资项目大面积倒闭决非易事。


Even in China, where the government has deep pockets to cushion the fall, one Lehman Brothers-size bankruptcy could lead to a major panic.	即使是政府拥有大量财政余地抵御下跌的中国，雷曼兄弟规模的破产也会导致重大恐慌。


Think of how hard it is to engineer a soft landing in market-based economies.	想想市场经济实现软着陆有多么困难。


Many a recession has been catalyzed or amplified by monetary-tightening cycles; former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was christened the “maestro” in the 1990s, because he managed to slow inflation and maintain strong growth simultaneously.	许多衰退是由货币紧缩周期催生或放大的； 前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）在20世纪90年代获得了“大师”（maestro）的美誉，因为他成功地降低了通胀并同时维持了强劲的增长。


The idea that controlled tightening is easier in a more centrally planned economy, where policymakers must rely on far noisier market signals, is highly questionable.	有控制的紧缩在中央计划性质更浓厚的经济中更容易（在这类经济中，决策者必须依靠噪声更多的市场信号），这一思想问题多多。


If one were to judge by official and market growth forecasts, one would think that the risks were modest.	如果从官方和市场增长预期判断，你会认为没有多少风险。


China’s official target growth rate is 7.5%.	中国官方增长目标是7. 5%。


Anyone forecasting 7% is considered a “China bear,” and predicting a downshift to 6.5% makes one a downright fanatic.	任何7%的预测都可以让你成为“中国空头”，预测将减速至6. 5%？


For most countries, such small differences would be splitting hairs.	对大部分国家来说，如此小的差异微不足道。


In the United States, quarterly GDP growth has fluctuated between -2.1% and 4.6% in the first half of 2014.	在美国，2014年上半年季度GDP增长在-2. 1%到4.


Of course, Chinese growth almost surely fluctuates far more than the official numbers reveal, in part because local officials have incentives to smooth the data that they report to the central authorities.	6%之间波动。 当然，中国的增长几乎肯定要比官方数字所揭示的波动更大，这部分是因为地方政府有动机将它们上报给中央当局的数据做平滑处理。


So where is China’s economy now?	那么，中国经济目前状况如何？


Most evidence suggests that the economy has slowed significantly.	大部分证据表明已出现大幅放缓。


One striking fact is that annual growth in electricity demand has fallen sharply, to below 4% for the first eight months of 2014, a level recorded previously only in the depths of the global financial crisis that erupted in 2008.	一个令人震惊的事实是，电力需求年增长率大幅下降，2014年前八个月增幅降至4%以下，上一次达到如此低的水平是在2008年全球金���危机最严重的阶段。


For most of China’s modernization drive, electricity consumption has grown faster than output, not slower.	在中国的大多数现代化动力中，电力消费一直比产出增长更快而非更慢。


Weakening electricity demand has tipped China’s coal industry into severe distress, with many mines effectively bankrupt.	电力需求减弱让中国的煤炭行业陷入了严重困境，许多煤矿实际上已经破产。


Falling house prices are another classic indicator of a vulnerable economy, though the exact pace of decline is difficult to assess.	下跌的房价是另一个经济脆弱的经典指标，尽管下跌的准确速度很难估量。


The main house-price indices measure only asking prices and not actual sales prices.	主要房价指数只衡量要价，而不衡量实际销售价格。


(Data in many other countries – for example, Spain – suffer from the same deficiency.)	（其他许多国家——如西班牙——的数据也受同一问题的困扰。 ）


Of course, exports have also slowed, given sluggish growth in the rest of the world.	当然，由于世界其他地区增长停滞不前，出口也有所放缓。


Commodity exporters such as Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil have already felt the effects of slowing Chinese growth, as have countries, such as Germany and Switzerland, that depend on satisfying China’s voracious demand for capital-intensive goods.	澳大利亚、印尼和巴西等商品出口国已经感受到中国增长放缓的影响，德国和瑞士等依赖中国对资本密集型产品的巨大需求的国家亦然。


Unfortunately, China’s data are not nearly as reliable as those measuring a developed economy, which makes it difficult for anyone to be sure of what is happening.	不幸的是，和测量发达经济的数据相比，中国的数据可靠性更低，这让人更难确定中国正在发生什么。


Electricity usage is typically one of the most reliable measures of growth; but, with the economy shifting toward services, and with many energy-intensive industries such as cement and steel production slowing down, it is perfectly possible that slow electricity growth is simply a symptom of rebalancing.	用电量通常是最可靠的增长指标之一； 但是，随着经济向服务业的转型，以及许多能源密集型行业（如水泥和钢铁）生产放缓，电力增长缓慢完全有可能只是再平衡的现象。


Likewise, the softening of housing prices follows a short period in which prices more than doubled, which makes it difficult to tell whether China is facing a modest and healthy correction or outright collapse.	类似地，房价在翻番之后表现出短暂的疲软，很难说这是否意味着中国面临的是健康的微调还是彻底的崩溃。


And if continental Europe eventually recovers, as the US and the United Kingdom are, export growth could pick up again.	而如果欧洲大陆最终如美国和英国那样复苏，出口增长也有可能重拾涨势。


What seems clear is that China’s leadership is intent on pursuing many of the market-oriented reforms approved by the Third Plenary in 2013.	已经清楚的是中国领导层意在实施2013年三中全会所批准的众多市场化改革。


President Xi Jinping’s aggressive anti-corruption campaign might be seen as preparation for political resistance to further economic liberalization.	国家主席习近平风风火火的反腐运动可以视为为进一步经济自由化扫清政治阻力。


On the other hand, one can argue that, until now, Chinese corruption was more of a tax than a paralyzing force, and that dramatically changing the rules of the game could by itself catalyze a sharp drop in output.	另一方面，你也可以指出，到目前为止，中国的腐败更类似于一种税，而不是一股让国家瘫痪的力量，激烈地改变游戏规则本身可能引发产出的剧烈下降。


Can China’s government engineer a soft landing while weeding out corruption, reducing pollution, and liberalizing markets to ensure long-term growth?	中国政府能够引导经济软着陆，同时扫清腐败、降低污染和实现市场自由化以确保长期增长吗？


The stakes are high.	兹事体大。


If Chinese growth collapses, the global fallout could be far worse than that caused by a normal US recession.	如果中国增长崩溃，全球影响将比寻常美国衰退严重得多。


China’s growth rate remains perched at a very high level, so there is a great deal of room to fall.	中国的增长率仍保持在相当高的水平，因此有很大的放缓空间。


The potential vulnerability of Western exports and equity prices is massive.	西方出口和股价的潜在脆弱性巨大。


Of the two major instances of policy tightening occurring in the world today, the US Fed’s may be the easier one to understand, but it is not necessarily more consequential for the world than what is happening in China.	在当今世界正在进行的两大政策紧缩中，美联储的紧缩更容易理解，但其后果并不一定比中国正在进行的政策紧缩大。


If they are responsible for all aspects of the company, then they cannot abdicate responsibility with a “Because I’m worth it” attitude when news of their large pay packages becomes public.	如果他们要负责公司的方方面面，那就不能在自己的巨额薪酬方案为外界所知时仅仅凭借一句���我值这么多钱”来逃避责任。


Questions for Robert Zoellick	提给佐利克的问题


Paul Wolfowitz’s resignation from the World Bank solved one problem, but brought another to light.	沃尔福威茨从世界银行辞职解决了一个问题，但是却又带来了一个新问题。


When Wolfowitz’s name was first mentioned as a candidate to lead the world’s premier development bank, the idea that the architect of America’s failure in Iraq would be so rewarded was met by incredulity.	当第一次提到沃尔福威茨领导当今世界最重要的发展银行候选人的时候，人们对于美国在伊拉克失败的设计师得到重赏感到不可思议。


But President George W. Bush had, from the beginning of his administration, sought to undermine multilateral institutions and agreements.	但是布什总统在其政府开始之初就寻求削弱多边机构和协议。


Wolfowitz’s nomination seemed to be part of that effort.	任命沃尔福威茨看起来就是其中一部分。


Should Bush, a lame duck president with little support at home and less abroad, now be allowed to appoint the next World Bank president?	布什的总统任期已经日薄西山，内外交困。 人们是否应当让他任命世界银行的下一任行长呢？


Bush has already demonstrated his lack of judgment.	布什早就表现出缺乏判断力。


Why give him another chance?	为什么再给他一次机会呢？


The arguments against the “old boy” system – by which the United States appoints the head of the World Bank and Europe the head of the IMF – are especially compelling today How effective can the Bank be in promoting good governance and fighting corruption if its president is chosen in a process that demonstrates flaws in its own governance?	美国任命世界银行的行长，而欧洲任命国际货币基金组织总裁。 这一“老伙计”体制遭到人们的反对，现在尤为激烈。


How credible will an anti-corruption message be when delivered by an appointee of what is considered one of the most corrupt and incompetent administrations in US history?	如果在一个本身管理存在漏洞的进程中挑选世界银行的总裁，那么，世行又何以有效地促进良好管理和反对腐败呢？ 由一个在美国历史上最为腐败和不称职的政府任命的人传播反腐败的道理究竟有多大的可信度呢？


Interestingly, as several heads of US Congressional committees have pointed out, it is in America’s interest for the Bank to be led by the most qualified person, selected in an open and transparent process, regardless of nationality, gender, or race.	有趣的是，正如美国国会的几个委员会主席所指出的那样，由一名在一个公开透明的进程中挑选最为称职的人领导世界银行而无论其国籍、性别或者种族是符合美国的利益的。


This requires a change in how its president is chosen, and, at Congressional hearings on the World Bank – the first in 13 years – I, like everyone who testified, called for this key reform.	这就要求改变其行长的挑选方式。 美国国会13年来第一次就世界银行问题举行听证会，我同其他作证的人一样呼吁进行这一关键改革。


Presidential appointments to senior posts in America’s government are subject to open hearings.	由总统提名担任美国政府高官的人要接受公开的听证程序。


Regardless of whether the old boy system is preserved – but especially if it is – the Bank’s Board should likewise conduct open hearings on Bush’s nominee to succeed Wolfowitz.	无论老伙计体制是否得以保留，特别是在保留的情况下，世界银行的董事会也应当对布什提名接替沃尔福威茨的人举行公开听证会。


Here are some of the questions – with some hints at right and wrong answers – that it should ask any proposed candidate for the Bank’s presidency, including Bush’s nominee, Robert Zoellick:	以下是几个董事会应当向世行行长提名候选人、包括布什任命的人佐利克所提出的问题。 这里还有一些回答正确与否的提示。


Do you believe that the president of the World Bank should put the interests of developing countries first?	你是否认为世界银行行长应当把发展中国家的利益放在首位？


Will you press for Europe and America to eliminate their agricultural subsidies?	你是否会推动美国和欧洲取消农业补贴？


Will you advocate a development round that emphasizes liberalization of labor markets more than capital markets, elimination of non-tariff barriers that keep developing countries’ goods out of advanced industrial countries, and abolition of so-called “escalating tariffs,” which impede development?	你是否会呼吁进行发展回合的谈判，而这一谈判强调劳动力市场的自由化超出资本市场的自由化、取消阻碍发展中国家的商品进入发达国家的非关税壁垒以及取消阻碍发展的所谓“累进关税”？


Will you be open to research even when that research shows that policies of the advanced industrial countries may, at least in some circumstances, not be in the interests of developing countries?	如果研究表明，至少在某些情况下先进发达国家的政策不符合发展中国家的利益，那么你是否对这些研究持开明态度？


During James Wolfensohn’s presidency of the Bank, there was a change in philosophy.	世界银行在沃尔福森担任行长期间发生了某些理念上的变化。


We encouraged research-based policies, even when that research was critical of policies being pushed by certain advanced industrial countries and by some in the Bank.	我们鼓励在研究基础上作出的政策，即使这些研究批评某些先进的工业化国家以及世行的某些人所推动的政策。


When our research showed that certain policies (like agricultural subsidies) were hurting developing countries, we publicized the findings, helping to redefine the debate.	当我们的研究表明某些政策（像农业补贴）对发展中国家有害的时候，我们公布了研究结果从而帮助重新确定有关的辩论。


Will you support the initiative of developing countries to have a development-oriented intellectual property regime?	你是否会支持发展中国家建立面向发展的知识产权体系的倡议？


What separates developing countries from developed countries is not only the gap in resources, but also a gap in knowledge.	发达国家和发展中国家之间的差距并不仅仅是资源的差距，而是知识的差距。


The Bank should be viewed, in part, as a Knowledge Bank, and it should advocate reforms that enhance developing countries’ access to knowledge.	在某种程度上，世界银行应当被视为一个知识银行，而且它应该倡导增进发展中国家获得知识的改革。


Access to generic medicines is essential if developing countries, with their limited budgets, are to improve the health of the poor.	发展中国家的预算有限，它们如果想要改进穷人的医疗，那么，获得非专利药物对于他们而言就十分重要。


TRIPs, the intellectual property provisions of the Uruguay round, were designed to reduce access to generic medicines – and they succeeded.	乌拉圭回合谈判达成的知识产权协议就是为了减少获取非专利药物，而这一协议取得了成功。


But as bad as TRIPs are, the bilateral trade agreements that Bush has been pushing are worse.	但是尽管这一协议是糟糕的，布什却一直推动的双边贸易协议则有过之而无不及。


Any candidate claiming to represent the interests of developing countries must distance himself from these policies.	任何宣称代表发展中国家利益的候选人都必须与这些政策保持距离。


Will you work to redefine the criteria by which countries get access to funds?	你时候会重新制定各国获得资金的标准？


Today, money goes to countries that are neither most in need nor can most effectively use it.	如今，并不需要资金的国家或者无法最为有效地使用资金的国家获得资金。


Complying with current orthodoxies – for example, on privatization and liberalization – can earn you points on “good governance,” and thus increase aid allocations—even when they reduce true aid effectiveness.	遵从当前的陈规陋习，例如有关自由化和自由化的制度，可以让你在所谓的“良好管理”上得分��且增加援助拨款，即使这样降低实际的援助效力。


Do you think countries that are corrupt should be cut off from funding?	你是否认为应当断绝提供资金给腐败国家？


If so, will do you so in a consistent way?	如果是的话，你是否会前后一致？


If not, how should the Bank respond?	如果不是的话，世行应当如何回应？


Will you support a comprehensive anti-corruption agenda, including closing down secret bank accounts?	你是否会支持全面的反腐议程，包括封存秘密银行帐户？


One of the flaws of Wolfowitz’s anti-corruption agenda that expansion or continuation of aid for countries favored by the Bush administration, like Iraq or Pakistan, was pushed, regardless of how corrupt they were, while there was little tolerance elsewhere.	沃尔福威茨反腐议程的漏洞之一就是扩大或继续给获得布什政府青睐的国家，例如伊拉克或巴基斯坦予以援助而无论它们有多么腐败，而对其他国家则毫不留情。


Problems with Uzbekistan were overlooked – until it fell out of favor with the US.	乌兹别克斯坦在从美国失宠以前一直安然无事。


Likewise, the Bush administration opposed the OECD initiative to restrict bank secrecy – until it realized that secret bank accounts help finance terrorists.	同样，布什政府反对经合组织限制银行保密的倡议，直到它认识到秘密银行帐户帮助资助恐怖分子。


Since then, it has shown that it can close secret bank accounts, but has chosen to do so only for terrorists.	从那时以来表明，它可以关闭秘密银行帐户，但是却只是限于恐怖分子。


Do you think the World Bank should do more to encourage countries to adopt core labor standards?	你是否认为世界银行应当在鼓励各国采纳核心劳工标准上做更多的工作？


Not only has the Bank not been active in promoting these globally agreed standards, there is a concern that the Bank discourages collective bargaining and protections for workers when it talks about “flexible labor markets” and conditions that are conducive to private investment.	世行不仅没有积极地促进这些获得全球认可的标准，而且有人担忧世行在谈论“灵活的劳动力市场”以及有利于私人投资的条件的时候却不鼓励集体谈判和对工人的保护。


The old boy system of choosing the head of the World Bank must go.	挑选世界银行行长的老伙计体制必须废除。


It has done enough damage.	这一体制已经造成足够的损害了。


But if the advanced industrial countries that control the Bank refuse to stand by their principles, at least they should give a nod to greater transparency.	但是如果控制世行的先进工业化国家拒绝坚持它们的原则，那么它们至少应该同意更大的透明度。


The world should know what it is getting.	世界应当知情。


Open hearings would be a step in the right direction.	公开的听证会将会是正确方向上迈出的一步。


Race and Republicanism	种族和共和主义


Race has always been a provocative subject when the needs of science and statistics intersect with politics.	当科学和统计的需要与政治联系在一起的时候，种族总是一个引发争议的话题。


Now that debate is once again heating up in France, as the planned introduction of “ethnic statistics” has caused a fierce dispute that touches the very heart of French republicanism.	现在，正当计划采用“族裔统计”的时候，这一辩论再一次在法国引起轩然大波。 这一计划触发了一场涉及到法国共和主义核心的激烈争议。


According to a law that dates back to the French Revolution, and reconfirmed in 1978, French government officials are forbidden to collect information about a citizen’s ethnic or racial origins, whether real or alleged, when conducting a census or other efforts to gathering statistical information on the population.	根据一部追溯到法国大革命、并在1978年得到再次确认的法律，法国政府官员被禁止在进行人口普查或者其他收集人口统计信息的时候收集有关公民的种族或族裔血缘的信息，无论确实从事或者被指控从事这一活动。


There are two main reasons for this.	这样做的主要理由有两个。 第一是体现在宪法中的共和原则。


The first is the republican principle, enshrined in the Constitution, that recognizes only citizens and does not accept any distinction among them due to origin, race, or religion.	这一原则只承认公民而不接受由于血统、种族或者宗教等造成的任何区别。 第二个原因是历史上造成的。


The second reason is historic: the painful and still vivid memories of the Vichy regime of WWII, when citizens’ “racial” and religious origin was stamped on national identification documents and was used as a key tool in rounding up French Jews for delivery to the death camps.	有关第二次世界大战维希政权痛苦的回忆依然记忆犹新。 当时，公民的身份证上盖有“种族”以及宗教信仰的印章，用此主要工具来抓捕法国犹太人并送到死亡集中营。


Today, the issue has returned to the forefront because of a new fight against racial discrimination, which appears to require more accurate measures of social inequality.	今天，由于新的反对种族歧视的斗争，这一问题再一次回到前台。 这一斗争似乎需要更多的精确的社会不平等措施。


Existing public statistics, it is believed, do not provide enough relevant information to analyze the possibility of discrimination in employment or housing.	人们相信，现有的公共统计并不提供足够的有关信息来分析在就业和住房方面歧视的可能性。


After all, without appropriate statistics, it is difficult to prove discrimination.	毕竟，没有适当的统计数据就难以证明歧视。


Indeed, many argue that by refusing to take into account distinctions linked to ethnic and religious origin, these distinctions are legitimized.	确实，许多人争辩说，拒绝考虑与族裔和宗教根源有关的区别，这些区别也就得以合法化。


One British social critic, quoted by the sociologist Dominique Schnapper, compares the behavior of the French, unwilling to mention ethnic discrimination, with English people of the Victorian era, who refused to talk about sex.	社会学家施奈佩尔引述一个英国社会评论家的话，比较法国人不愿意谈论族裔区别这一行为就像是维多利亚世代的英国人拒绝谈论性事一般。


Supporters of gathering statistics on race and religion also look to the experiences of the United States, Britain, or the Netherlands, where census takers are free to inquire about ethnic origins and a citizen’s sense of belonging.	收集种族和宗教统计数据的支持者还提出美国、英国或者荷兰各国的经验。 那里的人口普查员可以自由地询问族裔血统以及某个公民规属感的问题。


Since 1990, the US has collected data on ethnic origins.	从1990年以来，美国就收集有关族裔血统的数据。


Although the First Amendment of the US Constitution bans any religious test for citizenship or political office, ruling out questions on religious beliefs, it is possible to gather information on ethnicity, even in certain cases of multiple ethnic origins, such as “White,” “Black,” “Asian,” and “native American.”	尽管美国宪法第一修正案禁止对国籍的取得和从政设置任何宗教要求、进而排除宗教信仰的问题，但是，还是有可能收集有关种族的信息，甚至在某些情况下还可以问及多项种族血缘，例如“白人”、“黑人”、“亚洲人”以及“美洲土著”等等。


In Britain, the concern about social promotion of minorities led to the introduction in 1991 of statistics that indicate ethnic status.	在英国，有关少数族裔社会进步的关注导致在1991年开始采用表明种族地位的统计数据。


As for the Netherlands, companies were obliged to report the ethnic composition of their workforces until the law was repealed in 2003.	至于荷兰，该国的公司有义务报告公司职员的种族组成。 这一做法一直到2003年该法律被撤销为止。


But today’s French legislation is less rigorous than it seems.	但是今天的法国立法并不比表面上看起来的要严格。 这一法律区分两种情况。


It distinguishes between anonymous files from random samples and established for scientific purposes, which may contain data about a person’s origins, and files that are not anonymous, which have direct consequences for the people concerned – and for which it is strictly forbidden to register any information about ethnic origins.	第一是从抽查样本中获得的、用于科学目的的匿名材料。 这些材料可能包含有关某人血统的数据。


The 1978 law allows government statisticians to ask “delicate” questions only if these questions are relevant for the survey and with the consent of the person polled.	它们对涉及到的人员有直接的影响，也正是因此而严格禁止登记任何有关种族血缘的信息。 1978年的法律允许政府统计工作者询问“微妙的”问题，条件是这些问题和调查有关而且经过被调查者同意。


But government statisticians have long been studying the national origins of immigrants, and are permitted to indicate the previous nationality of people who have acquired French citizenship.	但是政府统计工作者长久以来一直在研究移民的民族血统，并且被允许表明获得法国国籍的人的先前的国籍。


Thus, there is a distinction between mentioning the original nationality, which is allowed, and mentioning ethnic and racial origins, which is not.	这样，允许提及先前的国籍和禁止提及种族和族裔血统之间就有所区别。


Is it necessary to go further just because the indicators linked to national origin are not enough to identify discrimination – especially indirect discrimination – based on ethnic grounds?	是否因为与国籍来源有关的指标并不足以确定基于种族理由的歧视、特别是间接歧视就有必要更进一步呢？


Some surveys show that the groups involved are doubtful about this.	有些调查表面所涉及到的团体对此怀疑。


Statistics are not only a reflection of reality: they help to shape it.	统计数据并非仅仅是现实的反映，它们还有助于塑造现实。


Statistical categories often tend to become social categories.	统计分类经常趋向于成为社会类别。


Not only are racial indications (White, Black, Arabic, Asian) very inaccurate in a world where racial mixing is now common, but, as François Héran, the head of France’s National Institute of Demographic Studies, argues, it is also necessary to prove that difference means inequality and that inequality necessarily means discrimination.	由于现在种族混合司空见惯，不仅种族指标(例如白人、黑人、阿拉伯人以及亚洲人)非常不精确，而且，正如法国国家人口研究所主任艾朗所说的那样，还有必要证明区别意味着不平等，而不平等必然意味着歧视。


Indeed, ethnic counting could merely reinforce the logic of community separation.	确实，种族统计或许只能强化社区分隔的逻辑。


Given the desire to penalize ethnic discrimination, the push for government to gain this knowledge is understandable.	鉴于处罚种族歧视的要求，政府推动获得这一情况是可以理解的。


But the state has other means to encourage equality on the basis of national, social, or economic criteria.	但是国家还有其他鼓励基于民族、社会或者经济标准之上的平等的手段。


In view of the risk of inciting fresh antagonism, gathering racial, religious, and ethnic statistics may not be worth it.	考虑到激发新的敌意的风险，收集民族、宗教以及种族的统计数据并不值得。


The ban against ethnic and racial data is a taboo that should not be overthrown easily, and not without carefully weighing the risk to social peace.	禁止种族和族裔数据是不经认真衡量对社会安定的风险就不得轻易抛弃的禁忌。


Racial Medicine\u0027s Revival	种族药品的复兴


It wasn't supposed to be this way.	事情本不应该如此。


In the spring of 2000, Francis Collins and Craig Venter announced at a White House news conference the completion of "the first draft" of the mapping and sequencing of the human DNA.	2000年春天，Francis Collins和Craig Venter在一次白宫新闻发布会上宣布：人类基因组的首次测绘排序工作已经完成。


With President Bill Clinton and Prime Minister Tony Blair nodding their approval, Collins and Venter agreed that racial classifications make no sense at the molecular level; we humans are 99.9% alike in our DNA.	得到了比尔·克林顿总统和托尼·布莱尔首相的首肯，Collins和Venter公开宣布在分子级别进行种族划分没有意义，因为人类99. 9%的DNA完全一致。


News media around the world picked up the story, intrigued by science's definitive refutation of racial thinking.	全世界新闻媒体都被科学对种族主义思想的有力驳斥所深深吸引，争先恐后地报导了这一消息。


Not so fast.	但这样的结论为时尚早。


While we may all be 99.9% alike, there are three billion base pairs of human DNA, which leaves at least three million points of difference (single nucleotide polymorphisms, or SNP's) between any two people.	尽管99. 9%的人类基因完全相似，但30亿对基因的庞大基数却为任何两个个体留出了300万的差异空间（即单核苷酸多态性，也叫SNP's）。


Armed with the promise of powerful new computer-driven technology, scientific attention is becoming riveted to that remaining 0.1% of genetic difference.	运用无比强大的最新电脑技术，科学家们将注意力集中到剩下0. 1%的基因差异之中。


Why has science turned - after only a few years - from repudiating the existence of racial differences between human beings to generating a near obsession with them?	为什么仅仅几天之后，科学就从否认存在人类种族差异转而采取了妥协的立场？


Around the same time that the first draft of the human genome was being completed, IBM announced the development of a new Super Computer capable of performing 7.3 trillion calculations per second on human DNA.	几乎在人类基因组初稿完成的同时，IBM宣布新的超级计算机研制成功，对人类基因的运算能力提高到每秒73000亿次。


The original idea was that greater computing capacity would enable particularized therapies, because we could now turn our attention to individual differences in everything from gene therapy to the delivery of pharmaceuticals.	人们原先认为计算能力的提高将改进基因治疗的针对性，因为它使我们能根据个体之间的差异安排从基因治疗到处方用药的所有过程。


But gene therapy has run up against a brick wall.	但基因治疗走进了死胡同。


An experiment at the University of Pennsylvania resulted in the death of the patient, Jesse Gelsinger, in late 1999.	宾夕法尼亚大学的试验疗法导致了病人的死亡，病人名叫Jesse Gelsinger，死亡时间：1999年下半年。


Then another gene therapy experiment in France generated leukemia in several patients - and the protocols were stopped immediately.	而后法国进行的试验又导致若干病人患上了白血病，于是试验许可协议遭到了即刻中止的厄运。


So the blind alley of gene therapy has sent biotechnology heading full throttle down the road of drug development, based on the new genomics.	基因疗法的失败加速了以基因图谱为基础的生物药品的研制过程。


Here, researchers are keen to exploit national, ethnic, and racial bio-databanks.	这一过程中，研究者们热衷于对国家、民族和种族生物数据库的开发和利用。


A breakthrough came in December 1998, when Iceland's parliament approved a bill giving a private biotechnology company legal access to a comprehensive genetic database - the first of its kind - for the country's entire population of 270,000.	突破产生于1998年12月，允许私有生物技术公司合法利用综合基因库的议案得到了冰岛议会的批准。 这是世界首创的基因库，含有该国270，000人口的全部基因数据。


Iceland has kept medical data on its population for more than a century, including records of the deceased.	近一个世纪以来，冰岛保留了全部人口的医疗记录，资料中甚至包括那些已经去世的人。


By combining both stored and newly collected blood and tissue samples, and supplementing these with detailed genealogical charts and records, the biotechnology company believes that it has gained a head start in searching for genes that are implicated in human disease.	通过将已有和新搜集的血液组织样本合并到一起，并用详细的基因图谱和记录加以补充，这家生物技术公司相信，他们已经在人类疾病所含基因信息的研究上取得了进展。


What is worrisome, however, is the putative "ethnic purity" of the database.	但令人忧虑的是该数据库公认的"种族一致性"。


According to the magazine  Science , Iceland's "isolated position" and catastrophes that "wiped out large parts of [its] population" have left it with "a remarkably homogenic gene pool."	《科学》杂志认为，冰岛"孤立的地理位置"和"导致该国多数人口死亡"的严重灾难使得现有的基因组合"高度一致"。


This makes it "relatively easy to track down disease-causing mutations that might form the basis for new tests and therapies."	这大大降低了寻找致病变异的难度，而上述步骤构成了新试验和疗法的基础。 "


Here was the foot in the door, the first step toward conceptualizing strategies of research and then delivery of drugs to populations that are defined by ethnicity and race. The next step was not long in coming.	但是大门毕竟已经敞开，这是研究策略概念化并以种族为制药基础迈出的第一步，接下来的进展也不会等待太久。


In March 2001, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) allowed the biotech firm NitroMed to proceed with a full-scale clinical trial of what has been touted as "the first ethnic drug."	2001年3月，美国食品药品管理局（FDA）允许NitroMed生物技术公司进行大规模临床试验，该研究被誉为"首次种族药品的尝试。


The trial itself was the first ever "conducted exclusively in black men and women suffering from heart failure."	"这是针对"患有心脏病的黑人男女"所进行的专门试验。


The drug, BiDil, is designed to treat or prevent congestive heart failure by raising low or depleted levels of nitric oxide in the blood.	这种药品名为BilDil，用于提高较低或耗竭的一氧化氮血液浓度，预防或治疗充血性心力衰竭。


It was originally designed for a wide population base, and race was irrelevant.	这种药本来没有适用人群限制，不分种族都可以应用。


But early clinical studies revealed no compelling results, and an FDA advisory panel voted 9 to 3 against the drug's approval.	但早期临床研究发现效果并不明显，因此以9票比3票遭到了食品药品管理局顾问委员会的否决。


However, BiDil was suddenly born again as a racialized remedy.	然而，BilDil却作为种族药品突然间获得了新生。


This is all the more remarkable because, by concentrating only on blacks, the clinical trials now under way can have little or nothing compelling to say about comparative results according to supposed racial differences between humans.	更引人注目的是，通过专门转向黑人研究，正在进行的临床试验在人类假想的种族差异方面，完全或基本没有值得关注的对照结果。


Moreover, the underlying epidemiological mistake of such "racial medicine" is obvious.	不仅如此，上述"种族药物"隐含的流行病学错误是显而易见的。


As Michael Klag and his colleagues showed a decade ago, in general, the darker one's skin color, the higher the rate of hypertension for American blacks, even  within the African American community.	正如Michael Klag及其同事10年前所说的那样，一般来讲，美国黑人群体肤色越黑，高血压的患病比率越高，即便在非洲裔美国人团体内部也莫不如此。


The differences were not biological or genetic in  origin , but biological in  effect due to stress-related outcomes of darker skin color: reduced access to valued social goods such as employment, promotion, housing, etc.	产生这种差异的并非先天的生物或遗传因素，而是较黑肤色带来的压力测试结果：与其它种族相比，黑人相对难以获得就业、提升和房屋等社会稀缺资源。


Unfortunately, while the new mantra of biotechnology is to claim that someday soon pharmaceuticals will be marketed to individuals based on their DNA, the fundamental truth is that selling drugs is still a mass-market business.	遗憾的是，尽管个体DNA状况将很快成为药物销售依据的说法正日益成为生物技术的最新魔咒，药物销售如今仍是大规模综合业务的事实并未改变。


Target markets consist of groups and population aggregates, not individuals.	目标市场中包含着团体和人口集合，而并非单一的个人。


So, for the pharmaceutical industry, racial categorizations make economic sense.	因此对制药行业来说，种族划分仅仅具备经济上的意义。


It has always been difficult to use the market to battle racial discrimination, and many governments nowadays behave as though they would prefer to give up the fight. But racialized drugs?	利用市场来对抗种族歧视向来非常困难，当前的很多政府似乎已经准备放弃这场斗争。


They may be coming soon, accompanied by the retrograde racial thinking - with its full range of dangerous assumptions and historical associations - that molecular biology was supposed to have dispelled.	但种族药品不久就会诞生，随之而来的还有分子生物学已经消除的倒退的种族观念，以及所有危险的假设和历史的联想。


Mazowiecki’s Miracle	马佐维耶茨基的奇迹


WARSAW – It was a hot day and a tense moment.	华沙——炎热的一天，紧张的时刻。


As Poland’s first post-communist prime minister, Tadeusz Mazowiecki, laid out his government’s ground-breaking program, he wobbled and appeared to faint.	在波兰后共产主义时代的首任总理塔德乌什·马佐维耶茨基奠定政府开拓性计划时，他摇晃着似乎要晕倒在地。


While the packed parliament speculated nervously, Mazowiecki slipped out of a side entrance to get some fresh air in nearby Ujazdowski Park in central Warsaw.	就在人头攒动的国会紧张地猜测总理的健康状况时，马佐维耶茨基已经溜出侧门，到靠近华沙市中心的瓦津基公园呼吸新鲜空气。


“Who’s that?” a child playing in a sandbox asked his mother.	“那是谁呀？ ”一个在沙箱中玩耍的孩子问他的妈妈。


“Nasz premier,” she replied – “Our prime minister.”	“那是总理”，她回答说——“我们的总理”。


That was not a phrase that had been readily used to describe Poland’s Communist leaders over the previous four decades.	之前四十年很少有人用这样的词来形容波兰的共产党领导人。


When Mazowiecki returned to the podium, he apologized and, with his customary dry wit, suggested that the Polish economy was as unsteady on its feet as he was.	马佐维耶茨基返回讲台时以惯有的假正经般的诙谐向大家道歉，说波兰经济就像他的双脚一样不稳固。


He was right.	他说得没错。


Communism had left Poland politically and economically bankrupt.	共产主义已经让波兰的政治经济陷入破产的境地。


Marxist ideology had become all but a façade; not even party apparatchiks pretended to believe it.	马克思主义思想几乎是在撑门面，就连党的干部都懒得假装相信。


Poland’s economy, close to outright collapse, struggled to meet citizens’ basic needs, let alone repay foreign loans.	波兰的经济徘徊在彻底崩溃的边缘，不用说偿还外国贷款，就连公民最基本的需求都无法满足。


It fell to the Catholic journalist and opposition activist Mazowiecki to be modern Poland’s first non-Communist prime minister and to start the road to recovery.	身为现代波兰首任非共产党总理，天主教记者兼反对派活动家马佐维耶茨基承担起了带领波兰走上复兴之路的重任。


Though he was in office for less than 17 months, from August 1989 to January 1991, he managed to set Poland on a path toward a market economy and NATO and European Union membership.	虽然从1989年8月到1991年1月执政还不到17个月，他仍然成功带领波兰走上了市场经济的道路，并成为了北约及欧盟成员。


In the final weeks of Communist rule, Mazowiecki helped to establish a model for negotiated political transition that still informs, inspires, and guides other societies on the cusp of change.	在共产党执政的最后几周里，马佐维耶茨基推动建立了谈判实现政治过渡的模式，这种模式直到今天依然为巨变中的其他社会提供信息、指引和激励。


I am proud that Poland, thanks to the expertise gained in the Mazowiecki years and after, can provide advice to the European Union’s eastern and southern neighbors, as well as countries like Tunisia and Burma.	我很自豪凭借马佐维耶茨基执政期间及其后积累的经验，波兰仍能为欧盟的东南部邻国、以及突尼斯和缅甸等国家提供有价值的建议。


The gaunt, gentlemanly Mazowiecki had served as an adviser to Lech Wałęsa, the leader of the Solidarity movement.	身材瘦削、颇具绅士风度的马佐维耶茨基曾任团结工会运动领导者莱赫·瓦文萨的顾问。


He had seen the movement swell to more than nine million members in the heady days after the August 1980 Gdansk Shipyard strike – and, like the rest of the movement’s leadership, had been interned when General Wojciech Jaruzelski declared martial law and banned Solidarity 16 months later.	他曾亲眼目睹团结工会运动在1980年8月格但斯克船厂罢工后风头正劲的日子里膨胀到超过900万人——他也像其他运动领袖一样，在沃伊切赫·雅鲁泽尔斯基将军宣布戒严并于16个月后查禁团结工会的日子里遭到软禁。


The union survived as an underground operation, printing discussion documents and organizing rallies.	团结工会此后转向地下生存，打印讨论文件并组织集会。


Gradually, the balance of advantage swung away from the Communist leadership – especially after Mikhail Gorbachev took over as Soviet leader – and back toward Solidarity.	尤其在戈尔巴乔夫接任苏联领导人后，优势逐渐从共产党领导层转移到团结工会。


Exhausted, the Polish Communist regime agreed to sit down to talks with Solidarity.	筋疲力尽的波共政府同意坐下来和团结工会谈判。


The negotiations, known as the Round Table Talks, led to the Communist world’s first competitive – though not entirely free – parliamentary election, on June 4, 1989.	此次谈判史称圆桌会议，并由此拉开了1989年6月4日共产党世界首次竞争性——尽管还不是完全自由的议会选举的序幕。


Five months before the fall of the Berlin Wall and Czechoslovakia’s Velvet Revolution, Poland had negotiated its way out of totalitarianism.	柏林墙倒塌及捷克斯洛伐克天鹅绒革命爆发前5个月，波兰通过谈判走出了极权主义。


But the Mazowiecki government faced a nearly impossible task: building democratic political institutions while resuscitating the country’s torpid economy.	但马佐维耶茨基政府面临着一项几乎不可能完成的任务：建立民主的政治制度，并重振国家毫无生气的经济。


One of the Mazowiecki team’s greatest achievements was the introduction, led by Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz, of fast and far-reaching market reforms and privatization.	财政部长莱谢克•巴尔采罗维奇领导下快速而意义深远的私有化及市场改革是马佐维耶茨基团队最伟大的成就之一。


The “shock therapy” of the Balcerowicz Plan unsettled Poles, but it brought the country’s terrifyingly high inflation under control.	巴尔采罗维奇计划的“休克疗法”令波兰人深感不安，但却使国内高得可怕的通胀得到控制。


Mazowiecki backed Balcerowicz, and the success of economic reform underpinned Poland’s relatively smooth political transition.	马佐维耶茨基坚决支持巴尔采罗维奇，波兰经济改革的成功带动了相对平稳的政治过渡。


Indeed, despite some initial hiccups, the positive effects of economic reform quickly became apparent.	其实，虽然开始时有些困难，但经济改革的积极效应很快就开始显露。


Poland recorded impressive growth.	波兰的经济增长非常可观。


Within 20 years, GDP increased four-fold, while exports increased more than ten-fold.	20年间GDP增长4倍，而出口额则增长10倍之多。


Once a peripheral European country economically and politically, Poland has become one of Europe’s leading states and a co-shaper of its future.	曾经是欧洲政治经济外围国家的波兰已经成为欧洲的领导力量，和其他国家一道决定着欧洲的未来。


The Round Table Talks and the political transition overseen by Mazowiecki marked a period of compromise that had advantages and disadvantages.	马佐维耶茨基监督下的圆桌会议及政治过渡标志着优劣势并存的妥协时代。


The advantages included a rapid political changeover and the assistance of some of the former Communist elite in building a free, democratic, and pro-Western state.	其优势在于迅速实现政治过渡，并在建设自由、民主、亲西方国家的过程中得到了某些前共产党精英的帮助。


The disadvantages included the lack of a clean break between Poland’s authoritarian past and its democratic present.	劣势包括波兰的独裁过去和民主现在之间缺乏明确的界限。


The price of a smooth transition was also that many members of the Communist regime – including Jaruzelski – were not held accountable for their crimes while in power.	平稳过渡的代价是包括雅鲁泽尔斯基在内的很多共产党政权成员掌权时所犯下的罪行没有得到追究。


At the time, I was critical of the path Mazowiecki was taking.	当时，我对马佐维耶茨基的做法持批评态度。


I believed that Poland’s transformation could be accomplished faster and more effectively.	我认为可以更快速有效地实现波兰的转型。


But this never tarnished my high opinion of him.	但这从未影响我对他个人的看法。


On the contrary, looking back on that era, it is amazing how much was achieved within such a short amount of time.	相反，回首那个时代，在如此短暂的时间内取得如此多的成就的确十分惊人。


Together with Wałęsa, Mazowiecki was a founder of Polish independence.	马佐维耶茨基和瓦文萨都是波兰独立的创始人。


His place in the history books is guaranteed.	应该保证他在史书上有一席之地。


It is thanks to him that Poles can be proud that theirs was the first Soviet Bloc country to free itself of Communist tyranny.	多亏他的努力，波兰人才能自豪地宣称在前苏联集团中第一个摆脱了共产党暴政。


We have not looked back since.	之后我们就头也不回地大踏步前进。


Extremism’s Strange Bedfellows	极端主义的奇怪伴侣


FLORENCE – Nowadays, we associate far-right politics with fervent Islamophobia.	佛罗伦萨——现在，我们总是强调极右政治与狂热的伊斯兰恐惧症之间的联系。


But this was not always the case.	但事实并非总是如此。


In fact, the relationship between the extreme right, particularly in Europe, and Islamist radicalism runs deep, with adherents of both groups sharing some important traits.	实际上，特别是在欧洲，极右势力和伊斯兰激进主义之间的关系根深蒂固，这两个群体的追随者拥有某些共同的重要特质。


These links have often been obvious.	这些联系往往是显而易见的。


Amin al-Husseini, the grand mufti of Jerusalem from 1921 to 1937, maintained close ties with the fascist regimes in Italy and Germany.	1921至1937年耶路撒冷大穆夫提阿明·侯赛尼与意大利和德国的法西斯政权保持着密切的联系。


Many Nazis found refuge in the Middle East after World War II, and some even converted to Islam.	许多纳粹份子在二战后隐藏在中东，有些甚至改信伊斯兰教。


And Julius Evola, the reactionary Italian thinker whose work has inspired Europe’s post-war far right, expressly admired the concept of jihad and the self-sacrifice it demands.	而曾凭借著作激发欧洲战后极右翼势力的意大利反动思想家尤里乌斯·埃弗拉则公开推崇圣战理念及其所要求的自我牺牲精神。


After the September 11, 2001, terror attacks in the United States, neo-Nazis in both the US and Europe fêted the attackers.	2001年9月11日美国恐怖袭击事件发生后，美国和欧洲的新纳粹分子授予了袭击者巨大的荣誉。


An official of the National Alliance, America’s premier neo-Nazi group, said that he wished his own members had “half as much testicular fortitude.”	美国首屈一指的新纳粹团体全国联盟的一名官员说他希望自己的成员拥有“一半这样的坚毅。


In France, celebrations of the attacks were held at the National Front’s headquarters, and German neo-Nazis burned US flags.	”法国国民阵线总部为这次袭击举行庆典，德国的新纳粹分子焚烧美国国旗。


The Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir was banned in Germany in 2003, partly because of its contacts with the far right.	伊斯兰极端组织伊扎布特2003年在德国被禁，部分原因是它与极右翼势力有着千丝万缕的联系。


Common enemies – Jews, the US government, the alleged “New World Order” – have sustained this unholy alliance politically.	犹太人、美国政府和所谓的“世界新秩序”这些共同的敌人使得这种邪恶联盟能够从政治上得以维系。


But closer examination of its ideological and psychological components reveals deeper connections.	但仔细研究其中的意识形态和心理成分就不难发现更深层次的联系。


Unlike liberals and the left, right-wing and Islamist ideologues promote an authoritarian, hierarchical, and often ritualized vision of social order and daily life.	不同于自由主义者和左翼人士，右翼及伊斯兰意识形态宣传的社会秩序和日常生活愿景专制、等级森严并往往遵循某种仪式。


They promise to purge society of the corruption that has separated it from its glorious past.	他们承诺要彻底清洗将自身与其辉煌历史割裂开来的腐败的社会。


And they believe that their racial or religious “supremacy” justifies the subjugation, and even enslavement, of others.	他们认为种族或宗教“至上”能够提供合理的借口对他人实施镇压甚至奴役。


According to political psychologists, conservative and right-wing views tend to be accompanied by a tendency to be easily disgusted, a “need for closure” (a preference for order, structure, and certainty), and sharp delineation of one’s “in-group” and “out-groups.”	按照政治心理学家的观点，保守及右翼思想往往伴随着某种很容易“反感”的特质、某种“对于了结的需求” （也就是对秩序、结构和确定性的偏好）以及划定“自己人”和“外人”的明确的描述。


While such research focuses on peaceful individuals, there is evidence that right-wing and Islamist extremists also possess these personality traits.	虽然相关研究主要以和平个体为对象，但有证据表明右翼和伊斯兰极端分子也具有同样的性格特质。


Start with the Islamists.	先从伊斯兰教徒开始。


Several jihadi operatives are known for their obsession with cleanliness.	尽人皆知几位圣战践行者有着近乎痴迷的洁癖。


Faisal Shahzad, who planted bombs in New York City’s Times Square, took meticulous care of his apartment in Bridgeport, Connecticut, before leaving for his failed bombing mission.	在纽约时代广场安放炸弹的费萨尔·沙赫扎德一丝不苟地照管他在康涅狄格州布里奇波特的公寓，之后才离开去执行失败的爆炸任务。


Mohamed Atta, the chief hijacker on 9/11, left instructions for his burial, demanding that no woman approach his body and that the men washing him touch his genitals only with gloves.	911首席劫机者穆罕默德·阿塔为自己的葬礼留下遗嘱，要求不能让女性接近他的身体并且为他洗礼的男性在碰触其生殖器时必须要戴上手套。


Salafi jihadis structure their lives according to a literal reading of Islamic scripture – a simple way of satisfying their “need for closure.”	萨拉菲派圣战者根据对伊斯兰教圣经的字面理解来安排自己的生活——这种简单的方式能够满足他们“对于了结的需求”。


As for the obsession with identifying the “in-group,” there is al-wala’ wal-bara, a core doctrine of Salafism that commands believers to dissociate themselves from non-believers, including impure Muslims.	至于说划分“自己人”的癖好，他们所遵循的是萨拉菲派核心学说之一的al-wala’ wal-bara教义，命令信徒与非信徒断绝关系，其中也包括那些不纯粹的穆斯林。


The need for certainty extends beyond religion.	对于确定性的需求超出了宗教的范畴。


As we explore in our book Engineers of Jihad, since the 1970s, a disproportionate share of Islamist radicals have pursued hard technical fields rather than softer subjects that offer fewer clear answers.	正如我们在圣战工程师这部著作中所探究的那样，从20世纪70年代后，绝大部分伊斯兰激进分子选择研究硬性的技术领域而不是提供较少明确答案的软性科目。


Both Shahzad and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian “Underwear Bomber” who attempted to detonate explosives on a flight in 2009, studied engineering.	无论沙赫扎德还是曾在2009年试图在航班上引爆炸药的尼日利亚“内衣炸弹”袭击者奥马尔·法鲁克·阿卜杜勒 - 穆塔拉都是工程学研究者。


Of the 25 individuals directly involved in the 9/11 attacks, eight were engineers, including the two leaders, Atta and Khalid Sheik Mohammed.	在直接参与911恐怖袭击的25人当中有8名是工程师，其中包括阿塔和哈立德·谢赫·穆罕默德这两名领导者。


To establish whether something systematic was going on, we examined the education of more than 4,000 extremists of all stripes around the world.	为了确定其中是否存在系统性联系，我们对世界各地超过4000名形形色色极端分子所受的教育进行了研究。


We found that, among Islamist radicals born and educated in Muslim countries, engineers are found 17 times more often than they are among the general population; the proportion of university graduates among radicals is four times greater.	我们发现在出生并受教于穆斯林国家的伊斯兰激进分子当中，工程师的比例比普通大众高17倍； 而激进分子中大学生的比例比普通人高4倍之多。


Within the Muslim world, more engineers tend to join radical groups in countries where economic crisis is undermining employment opportunities for elite graduates.	在穆斯林世界里，在经济危机破坏精英毕业生就业机会的国家有更多工程师倾向加入激进组织。


They are especially likely to join at the outset of such crises.	这些人在危机一开始就加入激进组织的可能性尤其大。


Among all university graduates, engineers (and, to a lesser extent, doctors) seem the most frustrated by the lack of opportunities, perhaps reflecting the ambition and sacrifice required to earn such a high-level degree.	在所有大学毕业生中，工程师似乎因缺乏机会而感受到最强的挫败感（其次是医生），这种现象可能反映了拿到如此高学位所需要的雄心和付出的牺牲。


But this is not the whole story.	但这并不是问题的全部。


Engineers also comprise a disproportionate share of Islamist radicals who have grown up in the West, where employment opportunities are greater.	工程师在西方长大的伊斯兰激进分子中所占的比例也非常大，而那里的就业机会相比穆斯林国家要好很多。


They are also less likely than other graduates to defect and leave violent Islamism behind.	而且与其他毕业生相比他们更不容易变节或者放弃伊斯兰主义暴力行动。


And, critically, radical Islamists are not the only group with a disproportionate share of engineers.	而且，关键问题是，激进伊斯兰主义并非拥有超大比例工程师的唯一团体。


Among radical right-wingers with a university education, engineers are similarly overrepresented.	在拥有大学学历的激进右翼分子团体中，工程师的比例也同样偏高。


Meanwhile, there are almost no engineers among radical left-wing groups, which are more likely to attract graduates in humanities and social sciences.	此外，激进左翼团体则几乎见不到工程师的身影，上述团体所吸引的毕业生中人文和社会科学研究者的比例更大。


Analyzing poll data on 11,000 male graduates from 17 European countries, we found that, beyond being on the political right, engineers score, on average, more strongly than other graduates on almost all measures relating to the tendency toward disgust, the need for closure, and a strong in-group preference.	对17个欧洲国家11,000男性毕业生调查数据进行分析后我们发现，工程师平均而言比其他学科毕业生在涉及厌恶指数、了结需求和自己人偏好的几乎所有衡量指标上所得的分数都更高。


These traits are much weaker among humanities and social sciences graduates.	人文和社会科学毕业生的上述特点则要弱很多。


The traits are also weaker among women, who have a strong presence on the radical left, while being nearly absent among both radical Islamists and right-wing extremists.	女性的这种特点也相对较弱，她们有很多人参加极端左翼组织，但在极端伊斯兰和极端右翼组织中却几乎看不到。


The correlation among psychological traits, academic disciplines, and presence in different radical groups is nearly perfect.	心理特征、学科领域和不同激进团体之间的关联性是近乎完美的。


Of course, most people who study engineering or have a strong preference for order will not become radicalized, meaning that these factors cannot be used effectively in profiling.	当然，学习工程学或对秩序有强烈偏好的绝大多数人并不激进，也就是说这些因素并不能有效勾画极端分子的轮廓。


But such insight into the psychology of radicalization remains important.	但对激进主义心态的这种洞察仍然非常重要。


Western and many Arab governments employ hundreds of people to dissuade would-be radicals, without a clear understanding of the psychological needs these ideologies serve.	西方和许多阿拉伯政府雇用成百上千人劝阻可能的激进分子，但却并不十分明白这些意识形态所满足的心理需求。


Much research remains to be done, but gaining such an understanding could help reveal better ways to meet those needs, before or after radicalization occurs.	尽管尚有大量研究有待完成，但获得上述认识可能有助于揭示满足上述需求的更好的方法，无论是在激进化过程开始之前还是之后。


The War with Radical Islam	与极端伊斯兰教的战争


NEW YORK – French Prime Minister Manuel Valls was not speaking metaphorically when he said that France is at war with radical Islam.	纽约—法国总理瓦尔斯说，法国正在与极端伊斯兰教打一场战争，他不是在作比喻。


There is, indeed, a full-fledged war underway, and the heinous terrorist attacks in Paris were part of it.	确实有一场全方位战争正在进行，穷凶极恶的恐怖分子袭击巴黎就是这场战争的一部分。


Yet, like most wars, this one is about more than religion, fanaticism, and ideology.	但是，与大部分战争一样，这场战争并不只是一场宗教、狂热和意识形态之战。


It is also about geopolitics, and its ultimate solution lies in geopolitics as well.	它事关地缘政治，终极解决方案也在于地缘政治。


Crimes like those in Paris, New York, London, and Madrid – attacks on countless cafes, malls, buses, trains, and nightclubs – affront our most basic human values, because they involve the deliberate murder of innocents and seek to spread fear throughout society.	巴黎、纽约、伦敦和马德里的罪行——针对咖啡馆、购物城、公交车、火车和夜总会的袭击——冒犯了我们最基本的人的价值，因为其中包含了蓄意谋杀无辜者和试图在全社会传播恐惧。


We are wont to declare them the work of lunatics and sociopaths, and we feel repulsed by the very idea that they may have an explanation beyond the insanity of their perpetrators.	我们习惯于将袭击者称为“疯子”、“反社会”，如果他们说他们的恶行并不只是出于疯狂，我们都会感到憎恶。


Yet, in most cases, terrorism is not rooted in insanity.	但是，在大部分情形中，恐怖主义并不植根于疯狂。


It is more often an act of war, albeit war by the weak rather than by organized states and their armies.	这更可能是战争行为，只不过这场战争由弱者而不是有组织国家及其军队发动。


Islamist terrorism is a reflection, indeed an extension, of today’s wars in the Middle East.	伊斯兰恐怖主义是当下中东战争的一种反映——实际上也可以说是扩展。


And with the meddling of outside powers, those wars are becoming a single regional war – one that is continually morphing, expanding, and becoming increasingly violent.	而在外部力量的干预下，这些战争正在成为一场地区战争——不断地演变、扩大，也越来越暴力。


From the jihadist perspective – the one that American or French Muslims, for example, may pick up in training camps in Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen – daily life is ultra-violent.	从圣战者的角度讲——比如美国或法国穆斯林在阿富汗、叙利亚和也门的训练营中所体验到的——日常生活是极度暴力的。


Death is pervasive, coming as often as not from the bombs, drones, and troops of the United States, France, and other Western powers.	死亡无处不在，即使没有美国、法国和其他西方列强的炸弹、无人机和军队也是家常便饭。


And the victims are often the innocent “collateral damage” of Western strikes that hit homes, weddings, funerals, and community meetings.	而受害者往往是针对家园、婚礼、葬礼和社区集会的西方打击的无辜的“附带伤害”。


We in the West hate to acknowledge – and most refuse to believe – that our leaders have been flagrantly wasteful of Muslim lives for a century now, in countless wars and military encounters instigated by overwhelming Western power.	我们西方人讨厌承认——常常也拒绝相信——如今，我们的领导人明目张胆践踏穆斯林生命已经一个世纪，数不清的战争和军事冲突都是由具压倒性实力的西方列强挑起的。


What is the message to Muslims of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003?	美国所领导的2003年入侵伊拉克对穆斯林来说意味着什么？


More than 100,000 Iraqi civilians – a very conservative estimate – died in a war that was based on utterly false pretenses.	超过100,000伊拉克平民——这是相当保守的估计——在这场基于完全虚伪的借口的战争中丧命。


The US has never apologized, much less even recognized the civilian slaughter.	美国从未道歉，甚至连承认屠杀平民也没有。


Or consider Syria, where an estimated 200,000 Syrians have recently died, 3.7 million have fled the country, and 7.6 million have been internally displaced in a civil war that was stoked in no small part by the US, Saudi Arabia, and other allied powers.	再以叙利亚为例，据估计，目前已有200,000叙利亚人死去，370万人逃离祖国，760万人在国内流离失所，而这场内战与美国、沙特阿拉伯和其他联合力量有着脱不开的干系。


Since 2011, the CIA and US allies have poured in weapons, finance, and training in an attempt to topple President Bashar al-Assad.	2011年以来，中央情报局和美国盟友大量提供武器、资金和训练，目的是推翻总统巴沙尔·阿萨德。


For the US and its allies, the war is little more than a proxy battle to weaken Assad’s patrons, Iran and Russia.	对美国及其盟国来说，这场战争只不过是一场旨在削弱巴沙尔赞助人——伊朗和俄罗斯的代理战争。


Yet Syrian civilians are the cannon fodder.	但叙利亚平民却成了炮灰。


Long before there was Islamist terrorism in the West, the United Kingdom, France, and the US relied on diplomatic chicanery and launched coups, wars, and covert operations in the Middle East to assert and maintain Western political control over the region.	在西方出现伊斯兰恐怖主义之前，英国、法国和美国便早已开始利用外交欺诈和煽动政变、战争和秘密行动使西方攫取并保持对对中东地区的政治控制。


Historians know this sordid story, but most Westerners do not (in no small part because many of the interventions have been covert).	历史学家都知道这段肮脏的历史，但大部分西方人不知道（相当大程度上是因为许多干预是秘密进行的）。


Since the fall of the Ottoman Empire a century ago, Western powers have sought to control the Middle East for a variety of reasons, including claims on oil, access to international sea routes, Israel’s security, and geopolitical competition with Russia in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.	自一个世纪前奥斯曼帝国崩溃以来，西方列强怀着各种算盘试图控制中东，包括主张石油权利、获得国际航海通道、以色列的安全、与俄罗斯在埃及、叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗的地缘政治竞争等。


The US now has more than 20 military bases in six countries in the region (Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Turkey) and large-scale military deployments in many others, including Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.	如今，美国在六个中东国家（阿富汗、巴林、吉布提、阿联酋、阿曼和土耳其）拥有20多个军事基地，在埃及、科威特、卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯等其他许多国家也有大规模军事部署。


It has funded violence for decades, arming and training the mujahedeen (in effect building the precursor of Al Qaeda) in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets; stoking the Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s; invading Iraq in 2003; trying to topple Assad since 2011; and waging relentless drone attacks in recent years.	几十年来，美国人一直在资助暴力，他们在阿富汗武装和训练圣战者（事实上基地组织就是由此滋生的）与苏联人作战； 在20世纪80年代煽动两伊战争；


The fact that jihadist terrorist attacks in the West are relatively new, occurring only in the last generation or so, indicates that they are a blowback – or at least an extension – of the Middle East wars.	圣战恐怖分子袭击西方这一事实相对较新，只是最近二十来年的事，这表明它们是中东战争的副作用——或至少是一种扩展。


With very few exceptions, the countries that have been attacked are those that have been engaged in the post-1990 Western-led military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria.	除了极少数例外，受打击的国家无不是参与20世纪90年代后西方领导的对阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚军事行动的国家。


The terrorists themselves cast their actions in political terms, even though we rarely listen; indeed, the terrorists’ words are typically reported only briefly, if at all.	恐怖分子本身打着政治的旗号实施行动，即便如此，我们对此几乎置若罔闻； 事实上，恐怖分子的说辞往往只是被简略地报道甚至完全忽略。


But the fact is that almost every terrorist attack in the West or against Western embassies and personnel has been accompanied by the message that it is in retaliation for Western meddling in the Middle East.	但事实是几乎所有发生在西方或针对西方大使馆和西方人的恐怖袭击都伴随着一种声音——这是对西方干预中东的报复。


The Paris terrorists pointed to France’s operations in Syria.	巴黎恐怖分子的指向了法国在叙利亚的行动。


To be clear, Western actions do not provide Islamist terrorism with a scintilla of justification.	坦白说，西方的行动不能给伊斯兰恐怖主义带来丝毫合理成分。


The reason to point out these actions is to make clear what Islamist terrorism in the West represents to the terrorists: Middle East violence on an expanded front.	指出这些行动是为了澄清西方的伊斯兰恐怖主义对恐怖分子意味着什么：前沿扩大了的中东暴力。


The West has done much to create that front, arming favored actors, launching proxy wars, and taking the lives of civilians in unconscionable numbers.	西方要为暴力前沿的出现负很大责任。 西方武装它们所喜欢的行动方，发动代理战争，夺走无数平民的生命。


Ending the terror of radical Islam will require ending the West’s wars for control in the Middle East.	结束极端伊斯兰恐怖主义要求结束西方为控制中东而发动的战争。


Fortunately, the Age of Oil is gradually coming to an end.	幸运的是，石油时代正在逐渐走向结束。


We should make that end come faster: climate safety will require that we leave most fossil-fuel resources in the ground.	我们应该让它快点结束：气候安全需要我们将大部分化石燃料留在地下。


Nor do the other ancient motives for Western interference apply any longer.	其他昔日的西方干预动机也不再适用。


The UK no longer needs to protect its trade routes to colonial India, and the US no longer needs a ring of military bases to contain the Soviet Union.	英国不再需要保护通往印度殖民地的贸易航路，美国也不再需要建立军事基地遏制苏联。


It is time for the West to allow the Arab world to govern itself and to choose its path without Western military interference.	西方应该让阿拉伯世界自己管理自己，自己选择自己的道路而不受西方军事干预。


And there are heartening reasons to believe that a self-governing Arab Middle East would wisely choose to become a peaceful global crossroads and a partner in science, culture, and development.	我们有令人鼓舞的理由相信，自治的阿拉伯中东能够明智地选择成为和平的全球十字路口和科学、文化和发展伙伴。


The Arab world has played that beneficent role in the past, and it can do so again.	阿拉伯世界在过去曾经扮演过这一有益角色，也可以再次扮演这一角色。


The region is filled with talented people, and the overwhelming majority in the region want to get on with their lives in peace, educate and raise their children in health and safety, and participate in global society.	该地区拥有有才华的人民，大部分居民希望生活在和平中，希望让孩子们健康安全地成长和接受教育，希望参与全球社会。


Their objectives – prosperity and human security – are our own.	他们的目标——繁荣和人身安全——也正是我们的目标。


Radical Goals for Sustainable Development	可持续发展的激进目标


BERLIN – Let us imagine for a moment that we could change the world according to our wishes.	柏林—让我们想象这样一个时刻：我们可以根据我们的意愿改变世界。


Dramatic economic inequality gives way to social and political inclusion.	巨大的经济不平等让位给了社会和政治包容。


Universal human rights become a reality.	普世人权成为现实。


We end deforestation and the destruction of arable land.	我们结束了森林采伐和适耕土地破坏。


Fish stocks recover.	渔业储量回升。


Two billion people look forward to a life without poverty, hunger, and violence.	二十亿人着眼于没有贫困、饥饿和暴力的世界。


Rather than paying lip service to climate change and resource scarcity, we start to respect and uphold the limits of our planet and its atmosphere.	我们不再空谈治理气候变化和资源稀缺问题，而是开始尊重和支持地球和大气的极限。


That was the aim in 2001, when the United Nations adopted the Millennium Development Goals.	这就是2001年联合国千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals）发布的目的。


And it will be the aim next year, when the MDGs expire and the UN adopts a successor framework for environmental and development policy.	这也是明年千年发展目标到期、联合国发布环境和发展政策后续框架的目的。


The coming set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will seek to protect ecosystems, conserve resources, and, as with the MDGs, lift millions of people out of poverty.	即将到来的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals）将寻求保护生态系统、保存资源，以及与千年发展目标一样让数百万人摆脱贫困。


Combining environmental and developmental frameworks is a good idea – one that builds on the success of a host of legally binding international conventions and agreements crafted under the UN’s auspices to protect the climate, conserve biodiversity, uphold human rights, and reduce poverty.	环境和发展框架相结合是一个好主意——构建在一系列具法律约束力、在联合国的支持下起草、能够保护环境、维持生物多样性、坚持人权和减少贫困的国际公约和协定的基础上。


Though they may not be perfect – and, unfortunately, the countries that ratify them do not always achieve the targets – they have led to the creation of institutional processes that encourage countries to meet their promises and embolden citizens to hold governments accountable.	尽管它们也许并不完美——并且，不幸的是，批准它们的国家并不总能实现目标——但它们已经建立了鼓励各国兑现承诺、使公民有勇气问责政府的制度程序。


But, though the SDGs will thus stand on solid legal ground, that ground must be developed further.	但是，尽管可持续发展目标将因此拥有可靠的法律基础，但这一基础必须得到进一步发展。


For starters, global agreements and targets have not yet been put in place for major environmental challenges, including the destruction of fertile topsoil and global plastic production.	首先，全球协议和目标从未适用于主要环境挑战，如肥沃表层土的破坏和全球塑料生产。


Such agreements will be necessary to enable the SDGs to consider human rights, the environment, and development holistically.	如果可持续发展目标要全面顾及人权、环境和发展，这些协议将是必不可少的。


Researchers and civil-society organizations have been calling for a reversal of soil degradation by 2020, and are pressing for at least one international panel of experts to meet at the UN to address this central aspect of global food security.	研究者和公民社会组织一直在呼吁在2020年前扭转土壤退化趋势，并至少敦促一个国际专家小组在联合国会晤以解决这一全球食品安全的核心问题。


Every year, 12 million hectares of land – an area the size of Austria and Switzerland – are lost to overuse and excessive application of fertilizers.	每年都有1,200公顷土地——相当于奥地利和瑞士的面积——因为过度使用和过度施肥而流失。


The environmental impact is magnified by large-scale farming.	而其环境影响因为大规模耕作被放大。


The social consequences can also be severe: eviction, the loss of livelihoods, and violent conflict.	社会后果也十分严重：驱逐、生计影响和暴力冲突。


The use of plastic must also be reined in.	塑料的使用也必须得到遏制。


Since the 1950s, worldwide production has increased by a factor of one hundred.	自20世纪50年代以来，全球产量增长了一百倍。


Every year, more than 280 million tons of plastic is produced, with vast quantities making their way into groundwater, rivers, and oceans – and onward up the food chain.	每年都有2. 8亿吨塑料被生产出来，其中有大量塑料进入了地下水、河流和海洋——并在食物链中累积。


Though plastic is not biodegradable, not a single country has pledged to prevent it from entering our environment.	尽管塑料无法生物降解，但没有一个国家承诺阻止它进入环境。


Another largely unexplored possibility would be to set targets for phasing out environmentally damaging and socially detrimental subsidies.	另一个基本未被考虑到的可能性是制定逐步取消破坏环境、不利于社会的补贴。


Globally, such subsidies, like those offered by the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy, run into the hundreds of billions of dollars, draining budgets and often doing nothing for the poor.	放眼全球，这些补贴——比如欧盟共同农业政策（Common Agricultural Policy）补贴——高达数千亿美元，令预算不堪重负，并且往往对穷人没有任何帮助。


Cutting them would not only remove perverse incentives; it would also free up money for education, universal health care, and infrastructure in rural areas, where it is needed to create income opportunities.	缩减这些补贴不但可以取消不当激励； 还能腾出资金用于教育、全民医疗和农村地区基础设施，用于创造收入机会的领域。


Unfortunately, we are unlikely to get the world of our wishes.	不幸的是，我们不可能让世界随时如我们的意。


The SDG negotiations reflect what is currently possible in a multilateral framework: relatively little.	可持续发展目标谈判反映了在多边框架中的现实可能性：相对较少。


No government is truly willing to tackle the causes of inequality and hunger, which would require making fair taxation and comprehensive welfare a top priority.	没有哪个政府真正愿意解决不平等性和饥饿的根源，这需要把公平税收和全面福利作为当务之急。


Such reforms would be more effective than any development aid, but for now they are off limits.	这些改革比任何发展援助都要有效，但目前还可望而不可及。


The rules of the global economy also remain untouchable, making it nearly impossible to restructure financial and trade policies to ensure that they do not result in more poverty, unchecked climate change, and irreversible resource destruction.	全球经济的规则也仍然不可撼动，这意味着几乎不可能重写金融和贸易政策以确保它们不会导致更多贫困、无止尽的气候变化和不可逆转的资源破坏。


The language agreed upon so far is not reassuring.	目前所形成的一致远远不够。


A timeworn commitment to economic growth at all cost is no answer to the question of how development can be balanced against the limits of our planet and the fact that billions of people live in poverty.	不惜一切代价保证经济增长的过时承诺并不是如何实现发展与地球极限的平衡这一问题以及数十亿人生活在贫困中这一事实的答案。


In a finite world, infinite growth is impossible, and rising output will not put food on everyone’s table if the benefits of growth are not fairly distributed.	在一个有限的世界中，无限增长不可能实现，不断增长的产出也不会把食品送上所有人的餐桌，除非增长的好处被公平分配。


It is not only the advanced countries that are impeding the creation of a bolder development agenda.	阻止制定更大胆的发展日程的并不只有发达国家。


Elites in emerging and developing countries are using the SDG negotiations primarily as a platform to call for international aid transfers.	新兴和发展中国家精英将可持续发展目标谈判主要视为要求国际援助转移支付的平台。


The UN is only as good as its members.	联合国不会比它的成员国更好。


We will know how good they are by the extent to which they view the SDGs as an opportunity to establish truly new priorities and truly universal goals for environmental and development policy in the twenty-first century.	我们可以看看联合国成员国在多大程度上将可持续发展目标当做为二十一世纪环境和发展政策确立真正的新当务之急和真正的普世目标的机会，这样就可以了解它们有多好。


Raúl Castro’s China Strategy	劳尔·卡斯特罗的中国策略


MEXICO CITY -- Fidel Castro’s resignation from two of his three leadership posts, together with the appointment of his younger brother, Raúl, as his successor, marks the end of an era…sort of.	墨西哥城——菲德尔·卡斯特罗辞去三个领导岗位中的两个，再加上他弟弟劳尔的继承任命，标志着一个时代的结束. .


Raúl replaced Fidel as President of the Councils of Ministers and of State, but not as First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party.	至少是在某种意义上。 劳尔接替菲德尔出任部长理事会主席和国家主席，但古巴共产党第一书记仍然由菲德尔本人亲自担任。


And, in a scene worthy of the glory years of Stalinism, Raúl received the unanimous permission of Cuba’s “parliament” to consult with Fidel on all major issues.	而在堪与斯大林主义的鼎盛时代相媲美的大好形势下，劳尔得到了古巴“议会”的一致许可，在所有重要问题上征求菲德尔的意见。


As long as Fidel is around – writing, meeting foreign dignitaries, and weighing in on everything from ethanol to the American presidential campaign – two things will remain clear.	只要菲德尔仍然健在——依然撰写文稿、会见外国显贵并参与从酒精到美国总统选举的一切事务决策——有两件事情显而易见。


First, Raúl will barely be able to budge even on the modest, strictly economic and regulatory reforms that he hopes, somewhat naïvely, will put food back on Cubans’ table.	第一，劳尔很难在他所期望的即便是非常温和、严格限于经济和制度意义的改革当中获得进展，尽管有些天真，但劳尔希望这样的改革能在古巴民众的餐桌上重新摆满食品。


Second, while the succession arrangement that the Castros designed years ago has the advantage of stability and predictability, Raúl will be unable to replace the old guard with younger leaders (his successor in the Armed Forces is 72 and his vice-president is 77).	第二，尽管卡斯特罗兄弟多年以前设计的继任安排有着稳定和可以预见的优势，劳尔却无法做到用年轻的领导人来接替老兵（他在军队中的继承人已经72岁，而他的副总统则已77岁高龄）。


Doing so would give whomever he chooses an edge when Raúl, who is 76, passes on, and he and Fidel do not necessarily agree on who should come next.	当76岁的劳尔去世时，这样做会让他选中的任何人获得优势，而他和菲德尔却并不一定能在由谁接任的问题上达成一致。


Raúl’s strategy is to pursue a Vietnamese or Chinese solution: pro-market economic reforms under continued Communist rule, with no progress on democracy or human rights.	劳尔的策略是仿效越南或中国的解决方案：即在共产党的继续统治下推行以市场为基础的经济改革，而在民主或者人权领域则不推动任何进展。


For those in the United States who have rightly concluded that the half-century trade embargo has proved counter-productive, this is an appealing halfway response that provides an alibi for moderation: one day, economic reforms will bring political change.	对于那些得出正确的结论，认为长达半个世纪的贸易禁运只起到过反作用的美国人来讲，这不失为一个能为温和主义者提供托辞的颇有吸引力的半路回应：总有一天，经济改革将会带来政治上的变化。


For Latin American pragmatists, always fearful of Cuban fifth columnists, it offers a way to square the circle: encouraging change in Cuba without going too far.	而对于一直惧怕古巴第五纵队的拉美实用主义份子来讲，这种方法能够变不可能为可能：既鼓励在古巴进行改革，同时又不至于做得太过分。


And, for some European governments, it is a typical hands-off remedy that places the problem squarely in America’s lap.	而对有些欧洲政府来讲，这是个典型的不干涉策略，把皮球直接踢到美国人的一边。


But the Vietnamese or Chinese roads are unacceptable in Latin America, which has made huge progress in transforming advances in democracy and respect for human rights into a regional legal order that goes beyond national sovereignty or the sacrosanct principle of non-intervention.	但越南或中国的道路很难在拉美被人接受，因为这个地区在将民主进步和对人权的尊重转化为超越国家主权或神圣不可侵犯的不干涉原则方面取得了重大的进展。


After decades of coups, dictatorships, torture, and disappearances, Latin America today, while not devoid of these plagues, has built a number of firewalls to forestall them.	在长达数十年的政变、独裁、折磨和失踪绑架之后，今天的拉美尽管没有彻底摆脱所有这些烦恼，但却修建了几道防火墙，以避免这样的事件再度发生。


Accepting a Cuban exception would represent an enormous setback.	把古巴当作例外情况将是一次巨大的倒退。


What will deter the next Central American dictator and murderer if the Cubans are given a free pass?	如果古巴可以自行其是，那么还有什么能对中美洲的独裁者和杀人犯起到震慑作用？


Invoking pragmatism to justify continued human rights violations in Cuba merely because economic reforms might dissuade a mass exodus to Mexico and Florida is a bad idea.	由于经济改革而援引实用主义为古巴持续不断的侵犯人权行为辩护或许能够阻止流向墨西哥和佛罗里达的大批移民，但这样的主意肯定并不高明。


Mexico has seemed especially tempted to return to its Cuban complicity of the past.	墨西哥似乎特别愿意回到与古巴沆瀣一气的状态。


It appears that during an upcoming visit to Havana, the Mexican foreign minister will not meet with local dissidents, breaking with precedents established since 1993.	听说在即将到来的对哈瓦那的访问当中，墨西哥外长将不再接见当地持不同政见人士，从1993年以后一直生效的惯例就此被破坏殆尽。


There are sound reasons to set a timetable for Cuba’s return to the Latin American democratic fold, without imposing elections as a first step or precondition.	我们有充分的理由在不把选举作为首要步骤或前提的情况下，为古巴回归拉美民主阵营制定出详细日程。


Indeed, free and fair elections and full respect for human rights can come at the end of the road – if that end is clearly established.	事实上，自由公平的选举和对人权的充分尊重能够最终得到——只要我们明确地树立起这样的目标。