Andy Haldane of the Bank of England points out that, given the low pricing of bank equity, on a market-adjusted basis banks are not as strong as they seem.	英国央行的安迪·霍尔丹（Andy Haldane）指出，鉴于银行净资产的定价较低，在计入市场因素的基础上银行可并不像看起来那样强大。


Bankers, by contrast, point to the high cost of equity and argue that forcing banks to raise even more will increase the cost and decrease the availability of credit.	相反，银行家则指出净资产成本已经很高，并认为强迫银行进一步筹资将增加该成本进而减少可用信贷。


In Europe, around half of the improvement in capital ratios has come from reducing lending rather than raising new equity.	在欧洲，大约一半的资本比率改善来自贷款减少而非增加新股权的增加。


There is little meeting of minds between the two camps.	对此两个阵营的想法之间基本上没有什么交集。


So it was a relief to encounter William Cline’s book The Right Balance for Banks, which attempts to produce a rationale for the appropriate level of bank capital.	对此威廉·克莱恩（William Cline）试图为银行资本的适当水平提供一个理论基础而撰写的《银行的正确平衡》一书为我们缓解了焦虑。


Drawing on a wide range of research and market analysis, Cline argues that requiring banks to hold more capital does indeed increase the cost of credit to some extent.	在进行了广泛的研究和市场分析后，克莱恩认为要求银行持有更多资本确实会在一定程度上增加信贷成本。


Although there is some evidence that bank debt is cheaper if equity backing is high, which one would expect, the reduction is not one for one.	虽然有证据表明在净资产较高的情况下银行贷款会更便宜，也是符合逻辑的，但是这种成本降低并不是一一对应的。


And an increase in the cost of credit is likely to depress growth and generate welfare losses.	而信贷成本的增加却可能会抑制增长并导致福利损失。


On the other hand, higher equity for banks will reduce the incidence of bank failures, which impose high costs on the economy and on individuals.	另一方面，银行净资产的提高会降低银行破产的发生率，而倒闭会给经济和个人带来极高成本。


Reducing the number and severity of crises is evidently desirable.	减少危机的数量和严重程度显然是人们所期望的。


So Cline attempts to calculate where the optimal balance might lie, recognizing that to reduce the risk of bank failure to zero might carry irrationally high costs.	因此克莱恩试图在认识到将银行破产风险降低到零可能带来非理性高成本的情况下计算出最佳平衡点在哪里。


Cline’s conclusion is that “the optimal capital ratio is 7% to 8% of total assets, corresponding to 12% to 14% of risk-weighted assets (using the ratio of risk-weighted assets to total assets in euro area and US banks).”	他的结论是“最佳资本比率是总资产的7％到8％，相当于风险加权资产的12％到14％（使用风险加权资产与欧元区及美国各大银行总资产的比率）”。


These figures are, in fact, quite close to the numbers underlying the new Basel requirements as implemented by national regulators.	实际上，这些数字与各国监管机构在巴塞尔新要求下制定的比率非常接近。


Most British banks, for example, are now targeting a requirement of 13%, and typically carry a bit more “for luck.”	例如，大多数英国的银行现在都把标准定在13％这个比率，而且通常会多持有一点资本来“保平安”。


Cline’s approach is intuitively appealing.	克莱恩的方法在直觉上很吸引人。


He recognizes that the ratio might reasonably be shaded up for systemically important banks, those famously dubbed “too big to fail.”	他认识到这个比率可能会顺理成章地被应用到那些因“太大而不能倒”而臭名昭著的系统重要性银行身上。


In the regulatory school where I was trained – the Bank of England – we were told never to use that fatal phrase, for fear of generating precisely the moral hazard we wished to avoid.	在我受训的监管学校——英格兰银行——我们被告知永远不要使用那个致命的短语，担心因此产生我们恰恰希望避免的道德风险。


But there is no getting away from it in the post-crisis world.	但是危机后的世界却仍未摆脱这个短语所带来的风险。


Will Cline’s hard work end the debate?	克莱恩的辛勤工作会终结这场辩论吗？


I doubt it.	我对此表示怀疑。


Even now, I hear axes being ground, and statistical models being recalculated.	即使是现在，我还会听到清算被制止，统计模型被重新计算。


And there are still no votes in taking the pressure off big banks.	同时也没有人会赞成去缓解大银行的压力。


The central bankers will need to hold their nerve, and the bankers themselves to behave, or a genuine Basel 4 may hove into view on the banks of the Rhine.	中央银行家需要打醒精神，银行家们也得管好自己，否则一个真正的巴塞尔4就可能会在莱茵河边降临。


The Pie-in-the-Sky UBI	天上掉馅饼的全民基本收入设想


BERKELEY – According to the conventional wisdom in Silicon Valley, robots will soon eat everyone’s job, and a universal basic income will become necessary.	发自伯克利——硅谷的流行观点认为机器人将很快蚕食掉所有人的工作，而为全民发放基本收入的政策将因此变得必要。


Lately, tech titans are especially eager to extol the results of a UBI pilot project in Kenya that is being funded largely by Silicon Valley philanthropists.	最近，各大科技巨头都在大肆吹捧一个肯尼亚全民基本收入试点项目的成果，而该项目主要是由硅谷慈善家资助的。


While the idea of UBI often arises during periods of economic and social stress, this is the first true test of it.	虽然全民基本收入的想法经常会在经济和社会压力山大的时期冒头，但上述项目才是对其的第一次实测。


The Kenya project provides a guaranteed poverty-ending income for those who receive it.	肯尼亚项目为测试者提供了一个足以摆脱贫困的收入。


In 40 poor, remote villages, 6,000 adults are now receiving 75 cents (yes, cents) per day – or $22 per month for 12 years.	分属40个偏远贫困村的6,000名成年人每天能领取75美分（没错，是美分）——折合每月22美元——连续领12年。


We hope that the experiment in Kenya works.	我们希望在肯尼亚的实验能够成功。


Cash assistance shows much promise for eliminating extreme poverty in developing countries.	现金援助在消除发展中国家极端贫困方面的表现出很大的前景。


But, to be effective, it must be delivered directly to those in need over a sustained period of time, and in adequate amounts.	但是如果要确保有效，就必须在持续的时间段内将足够的金额直接发放给那些有需要的人。


In poor developing countries, a UBI can disintermediate expensive aid programs that fail to address the targeted population’s needs, and that are often undermined by corrupt regimes.	在贫穷的发展中国家，全民基本收入项目可以胜过那些既不能满足目标人群需求又往往遭到腐败政权阻挠的昂贵援助计划。


Still, Silicon Valley’s titans should curb their enthusiasm.	不过硅谷的巨头应该稍微遏制自身的热情。


The Kenya UBI relies on M-Pesa, a for-profit mobile banking system that was built with the support of foreign aid, private companies, and a forward-looking government – not well-meaning philanthropists.	肯尼亚的全民基本收入项目依赖M-Pesa系统——它是一个在对外援助，私人企业和前瞻性政府——而非善意慈善家——的支持下构建的盈利性移动银行系统。


And even if a UBI succeeds in Kenya over the next 12 years, it is not a solution to pressing problems in the US economy today.	即使全民基本收入项目能在未来12年中在肯尼亚取得成功，也并非解决当前美国经济中紧迫问题的办法。


A UBI for the United States is as fanciful as President Donald Trump’s border wall: it would be prohibitively expensive; and it would not solve the problems that it is meant to address.	在美国搞全民基本收入项目就像特朗普总统的边界墙一样天马行空：一方面昂贵到无力维持； 另一方面又无法解决其想要解决的问题。


Worst of all, UBI proposals are disingenuous distractions from such immediate problems as persistent poverty, especially for children and racial and ethnic minorities; stagnant real (inflation-adjusted) wages and incomes for most households; expanding income inequality; declining social mobility; inequalities in educational opportunities; and the income volatility that comes with erratic employment.	最糟糕的是，全民基本收入的提案会导致人们故意去忽略一些紧迫问题：诸如在儿童和少数种族和民族群体中的持续贫困状况； 大多数家庭实际（计入通胀后）工资和收入的停滞不前；


Technology has not yet significantly reduced the overall number of jobs in the US, but it has certainly undermined job quality for millions of workers.	技术的进步还未显著减少美国的总体就业岗位，但肯定降低了数百万劳动者的工作质量。


New technologies are wiping out routine manual and cognitive middle-skill jobs, and exacerbating labor-income inequalities, the most important source of overall income inequalities.	新技术正逐步消灭那些常规性的手工和中等认知技能工作，加剧了劳动收入的不平等，也是总体收入不平等的最重要来源。


But does this litany of problems justify a basic income for every working American, including Silicon Valley “superstars,” whose skills and incomes have been complemented and enhanced by skill-biased, labor-saving technological change?	但是这一系列问题是否就表明每个美国人，包括那些技能和收入已经被高度依赖技巧且节省劳动力的技术变革所补足和提升的硅谷“超级巨星”们，都该得到一份基本收入？


Even if a UBI for every American adult was a desirable goal, no serious proposal for funding it exists.	即使为每个美国成年人的全民基本收入是个理想的目标，也没有人提出过资助其实施的严肃提案。 在肯尼亚，每月22美元的付款可能已经可以很好地消除贫困；


In Kenya, a $22 monthly payment might very well eradicate poverty; but it would be “chump change” in the US, where the official poverty line for an adult in 2016 was $12,700 per year.	但在将成年人贫困线定在年收入1. 27万美元（2016年官方标准）的美国，这点钱根本不算钱。


Each year, a $10,000 basic income for every American adult would cost more than $3 trillion, consuming more than three-quarters of the annual federal budget.	如果每年要每个美国成年人发放1万美元的基本收入，总费用将高达3万亿美元以上，相当于花掉了联邦年度预算的3/4。


This would require historically high taxes, and yet we rarely hear wealthy UBI advocates calling for their taxes to be raised.	这将需要有史以来最高昂的税收体系，但我们很少听到富裕的全民基本收入倡导者呼吁为自己加税。


They are more likely to advocate cutting existing social-welfare spending, such as Social Security and other programs that benefit the bottom two-fifths of the population, including children.	他们更有可能主张削减现有的社会福利支出，例如那些令包括儿童在内的占总人口数量2/5的底层民众受益的社会保障和其他计划。


While we await the results of the Kenyan UBI pilot and anticipate the future destruction of jobs by intelligent robots, we need to modernize and strengthen existing programs that address the challenges workers face today.	在我们等待肯尼亚全民基本收入试点的结果并预测智能机器人将来会消灭工作的同时，我们需要对那些应对工人当前面临挑战的现有项目进行升级和强化。


Quality education at all levels, including job-relevant training and lifelong learning opportunities, are critical to provide the skills that labor markets demand, but require significant investment.	包括与就业相关的培训和终身学习机会在内的各层次优质教育体系对于培养那些劳动力市场急需但需要大量投资的技能至关重要。


Transition-assistance programs, to help workers and their families cope with employment and income disruptions, also will be needed.	此外还需要一些转型援助项目来帮助工人及其家庭应付就业和收入上的波动。


In Silicon Valley, “disruption” connotes positive change; in reality, disruption inflicts substantial pain on those whose livelihoods are upended by new technology.	在硅谷，“破坏”意味着积极的变化； 但在现实中，破坏意味着那些生计受到新技术影响的人将遭受实质性的痛苦。


In the US, current programs – such as Medicaid, unemployment compensation, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) – should be made more generous.	美国当前的保障项目——如医疗补助，失业补偿，营养补充援助计划和有需要家庭临时援助——也应该加大力度。


In addition, the US should develop a national, universal income-insurance program to assist those facing financial insecurity as a result of unemployment, disability, illness, or the death of a family member.	此外，美国应制定一个国家层面的全民收入保险计划，以帮助因失业，残疾，疾病或家庭成员死亡而面临财政困境的人。


Meanwhile, as a larger share of the workforce engages in independent work, the current employment-based benefits system will need to be replaced with a portable benefits system that covers all workers, regardless of employer.	同时，随着越来越多劳动者从事独立工作，就有需要用一个覆盖所有工人（无论有没雇主）的流动性福利体系来取代当前以雇佣为基础的福利体系。


Americans also need a higher federal minimum wage.	美国还需要提高联邦最低工资额。


Had the minimum wage kept pace with rising productivity, it would be nearly $19 per hour today, instead of $7.25.	如果要实现最低工资与生产率同步增长的话，今天的工资应当接近19美元每小时，而不是7. 25美元。


Among workers earning the minimum wage, more than half are women, and many of them depend on tipping for the bulk of their income, as restaurants are permitted to pay a shockingly low minimum wage of $2.13 per hour.	在获得最低工资的工人中，一半以上是妇女，其中许多人的大部分收入来源是小费，因为政府允许餐馆支付令人震惊的2. 13美元/小时最低工资。


A majority of Americans support raising the minimum wage, as do seven Nobel laureates in economics; one hopes that Silicon Valley’s UBI proselytizers do, too.	大多数美国人都支持提高最低工资，有7位诺贝尔经济学奖得主也表示赞成； 希望硅谷的那些全民基本收入倡导者们也能如此。


Finally, America should start to develop a means-tested income supplement for workers whose jobs are displaced, or whose wages are undercut, by automation.	最后，美国应该开始为那些因自动化而丢失工作或扣减工资的工人研究制定一个包含经济状况调查的收入补贴计划。


To that end, the earned-income tax credit should be replaced by a generous negative income tax – an idea that the economist Milton Friedman proposed decades ago, when robots were still the stuff of science fiction.	为此，以收入为基础的所得税应该被慷慨的负所得税所取代，这是经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）几十年前提出的一个想法——当时机器人还只是科幻小说里的玩意儿。


A negative income tax – which, unlike a UBI, provides a powerful incentive to work – could raise the take-home pay of millions of workers employed in low-wage jobs.	与全民基本收入不一样的是，负所得税会催生强大的工作激励，可以提升数百万低工资劳动者的实际收入。


Many of these are “care” and other “personal services” jobs, which are projected to be among the fastest-growing occupations in the next decade – and which robots are unlikely to “disrupt.”	其中许多是“护理”和其他“个人服务类”工作，这些工作预计将是未来十年增长最快的职业之一，而机器人也不可能“消灭”它们。


As Teddy Roosevelt said, “Far and away the best prize that life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.”	正如泰迪·罗斯福所说，“生活所能提供的最好奖励就是有机会在一份有意义的工作中努力奋斗。


The focus of policy today should be on worthwhile work that pays a living wage, not starry-eyed proposals for a post-work future.	”今天的政策重点应该是那些支付足量工资的有价值工作，而不是针对后工作时代的不切实际方案。


Data-Driven Gender Equality	数据驱动的性别平等


NEW YORK – A key agenda item at this year’s annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, under way this week, will be to assess global progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the UN’s consensus roadmap for solving the world’s biggest challenges by 2030.	纽约——本周即将召开的联合国大会年会重要议程是评估可持续发展目标（SDGs）的全球进展状况，可持续发展目标是联合国就解决截止2030年全球最重大挑战的发展蓝图所达成的一致目标。


I was part of the UN team that helped create the Millennium Development Goals, which preceded the SDGs.	我本人参与过协助制定千年发展目标的联合国团队，千年发展目标是出台可持续发展目标之前的版本。


By the time the MDGs concluded in 2015, they had fueled some of the fastest and most extensive gains in global health and development the world has ever seen.	到2015年千年发展目标计划结束时，它已经成功推动了全世界有史以来最迅速和广泛的全球卫生和发展增长。


The MDGs paved the way for the SDGs, and I have been encouraged by the commitment the global community has shown to sustaining the post-2015 development agenda.	千年发展目标为可持续发展目标题铺平了道路，我本人也因为全球社会对实现后2015年发展议程所表现出来的坚定决心而感到鼓舞。


But it has also become clear to me and others that without a more deliberate, data-driven focus on the needs of women and girls in particular, progress toward a wide range of objectives will suffer.	但我和其他人也明确认识到，如果没有对妇女和女童需求以数据为基础的深思熟虑的重点关注，实现一系列目标的进展状况将会受到影响。


If we fail to achieve universal gender equality, we will fall short of many other goals, from ending poverty to ensuring good health.	如果我们无法实现普遍的性别平等，我们就无法实现从结束贫困到确保身体健康在内的很多其他目标。


One of my personal frustrations with the MDGs was that gender equality was more a matter of rhetoric than of action.	我个人对千年发展目标的一个不满之处是性别平等更多地停留在一种言辞而非行动。


Despite their promise of empowerment, the MDGs didn’t adequately target many of the biggest challenges that women and girls face, such as gender-based violence and economic discrimination.	尽管承诺赋予权力，但千年发展目标并没有充分解决妇女和女童所面临的许多最重大挑战，比如基于性别的暴力和经济歧视等现象。


These gaps have persisted, because in the 1990s, when the MDGs were being formulated, most people, including me, did not adequately understand the scale or complexity of the problem.	这样的不足之处一直延续到现在，因为在20世纪90年代制定千年发展目标时，包括我本人在内的大多数人对问题的规模和复杂性并没有充分认识到。


We must avoid a similar fate with the SDGs.	我们必须避免可持续发展目标遭遇同样的命运。


Achieving gender equality is more than a once-in-a-generation opportunity; it is also the best way to make progress on nearly all of the SDGs, and to build a world where everyone can thrive.	实现两性平等不仅仅是一代人的机遇； 同时也是推动所有可持续发展目标取得进展、并建设一个所有人都能繁荣兴旺的世界的最佳方式。


As Bill and Melinda Gates will discuss at a gathering of world leaders next week in New York, and show in a new report, collective action is needed to address the various dimensions of gender inequality and drive progress.	就像比尔和梅林达盖茨将在下周纽约举行的世界领导人会议上讨论并在一份新报告中所阐述的那样，我们需要采取集体行动来改善各个方面的性别不平等并推动进步。


One of the biggest impediments is a dearth of good data on issues that disproportionately affect women and girls, such as land rights, access to education, family planning, or health care.	这方面最大的障碍是在严重影响妇女和女童的土地权、教育权、计划生育权和医疗卫生权等方面欠缺对高质量数据的掌握。


Data are essential to understanding what is working and how to track progress.	数据对理解效果和跟踪进展起到了至关重要的作用。


Yet up-to-date data exist for only a small fraction of the indicators that were developed to assess progress on the 17 SDGs – including the more than 40 that directly relate to gender equality.	但17个可持续发展目标中制定专项指标评估最新数据进展的仅占一小部分——其中也包括与性别平等直接相关的超过40个指标。


Of the 14 indicators of progress associated with the primary gender equity goal, SDG 5, most countries are measuring just three.	在与主要性别平等目标（可持续发展目标第5条）相关的14个评估指标中，多数国家仅评估其中的三个指标。


To help fill these critical gaps, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has created a three-year, $80 million initiative to generate more reliable data that can improve the design and targeting of programs and policy interventions.	为填补这些重要空白，比尔和梅林达盖茨基金会创立了一项8，000万美元的三年行动计划，目的是搜集更为可靠的数据，改善项目和政策干预的设计和目标导向。


As part of that effort, the foundation recently launched a $10 million partnership with UN Women to help countries improve the quality of the gender-specific data they collect.	作为这项工作的组成部分，该基金会最近与联合国妇女组织共同发起了一项1，000万美元的协助各国改善所搜集性别数据质量的合作计划。


The foundation is also supporting Equal Measures 2030, an initiative to empower advocates and civil-society groups with easy-to-use evidence to assess progress toward targets and keep the SDGs for women and girls on track.	该基金会还支持2030年平等措施，该计划授权倡导者和民间社会团体充分利用便于获得的证据，以评估目标的进展状况并跟踪妇女和女童可持续发展目标的完成状况。


These and other efforts will provide gender-equality advocates and decision-makers with better information about the nature and scale of the social and economic barriers holding women and girls back, and help identify who is falling through the cracks.	性别平等倡导者和决策者将从上述和其他项目中获得关于阻碍妇女和女童发展的社会和经济障碍性质和规模的更为准确的信息，并有助于明确性别平等计划遗漏了哪些对象。


We know from existing evidence that empowering women and girls can accelerate progress.	现有证据显示授权妇女和女童可以加速推动进步。


For example, when girls attend secondary school (SDG 4), they are up to six times less likely to be married as a child.	比方说，如果女孩儿有机会上高中（可持续发展目标第4条），她们涉及童婚的可能性仅为原来的六分之一不到。


And higher literacy rates among adolescent girls are associated with lower adolescent birth rates and improved health (SDG 3).	花季少女的识字率越高，生育率就越低，健康状况也越好（可持续发展目标第3条）。


Likewise, women are much more likely than men to invest surplus income in ways that improve the lives of their children.	同样，妇女将剩余收入投入改善子女生活的可能性比男性大得多。


The benefits of gender equity are also apparent when women have access to basic financial services, like credit and savings accounts, which enable them to start businesses and save money for family essentials.	当妇女能获得基本的金融服务，如开立信贷和储蓄账户时，性别平等的好处也是显而易见的。 这使得她们能够开办企业，并存钱用于家庭生活必需品的采购。


Closing the gender gap in agriculture, meanwhile, could have an even more profound impact on families and productivity in the developing world.	此外，消除农业领域的性别差距也能对发展中国家的家庭和生产效率产生深远的影响。


Today, for example, women make up nearly half of the agricultural workforce in Sub-Saharan Africa.	比方说，今天在撒哈拉以南非洲，妇女仅占农业劳动力的半数不到。


Yet, they typically work smaller, less productive plots of land than men, and often lack access to the best seeds, fertilizer, credit, and training opportunities.	但她们通常耕作的土地比男性面积小、产量差，而且往往无法获得最好培训机会、种子和肥料。


Studies show that giving women more decision-making power over productive assets has the potential to increase farm yields by more than 20%, which is essential to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere” by 2030 (SDG 1).	研究表明在经营性资产领域授予妇女更多的决策权有可能提高农业产量超过20%，这对到2030年“消除一切形式的贫困”（可持续发展目标第1条）将起到至关重要的作用。


When we remove the barriers confronting the most vulnerable in society, the effects are transformational.	当我们消除社会最弱势群体所面临的障碍时，将会产生革命性的效果。


But to do that, donors, development partners, governments, and the private sector must invest in more and better data that are sorted by age and sex.	但要实现上述目标，捐助者、发展伙伴、政府和私营部门必须投资，搜集按年龄和性别分类的更多更好的数据以用于决策。


Doing so will allow programs to be tailored to the needs of women and girls everywhere.	这样做将使项目能够适应世界各地妇女和女童的需要。


Our challenge – and opportunity – is to overcome the deeply entrenched barriers that impede progress for women and girls.	我们的挑战和机遇是克服阻碍妇女和女童发展的根深蒂固的障碍。


The SDGs are a huge step in that direction.	可持续发展目标是朝这个方向迈出的重要步骤。


But goals without actionable strategies are just good intentions.	但没有可行战略支撑的目标仅仅是良好的愿望。


The SDGs provide the roadmap to ending poverty and creating a better, healthier, more secure world for everyone.	可持续发展目标制定了结束贫困、为所有人创造更好、更健康、更安全世界的发展蓝图。


Ensuring that we have quality data is the best way to ensure that no one gets lost along the way.	确保没有任何人掉队的最佳方式就是确保高质量的数据掌握在我们手中。


Seeing Through Big Tobacco’s Smokescreen	看穿大型烟草企业的烟幕


GENEVA – We all know how bad tobacco is, that it kills millions of people every year, and that it harms many more.	日内瓦——我们都知道烟草有多坏，每年因吸烟而死的人高达数百万，而且还有更多人因吸烟而受害。


We also know that tobacco companies have consistently lied about how much damage their products cause.	我们也知道，烟草企业一直不肯据实承认其产品所造成的损害。


But now, even Big Tobacco has been forced to state the facts publicly.	但现在，就连大型烟草企业也被迫公开承认事实。


After losing a string of appeals following a 2006 US federal court ruling, four companies have been forced to reveal the truth behind years of deceptive marketing, by publishing advertisements containing “corrective statements” in US newspapers and on television.	在2006年美国联邦法院做出判决且一连串的上诉失利后，四家企业已被迫公开多年欺骗性营销幕后的真相，并在美国的报纸和电视上发布含有“修正声明”的广告。


These public statements acknowledge that the companies – Philip Morris USA, RJ Reynolds Tobacco, Lorillard, and Altria – knew the damage their products cause but kept selling them anyway.	这些公开声明承认这四家企业——包括美国菲利普·莫里斯公司、雷诺烟草公司、罗瑞拉德公司和奥驰亚公司——清楚其产品所造成的损害但仍然继续销售。


And it is not just courts that are taking action against the tobacco industry.	不仅法院在对烟草行业采取行动。


The recent decision by French bank BNP Paribas to stop financing and investing in tobacco companies – including producers, wholesalers, and traders – is just the latest sign that public health is finally being put ahead of commercial interests.	法国巴黎银行最近决定停止对包括生产商、批发商和贸易商在内的烟草企业进行融资和投资——这不过是公众健康终于超越商业利益的最新的迹象。


Still, we must not be lulled into believing that these overdue confessions reflect an industry undergoing altruistic catharsis.	但我们决不能被哄骗着相信这些迟来的忏悔是烟草业经历利他净化的反映。


They resulted from the combined pressure of the US justice system, tobacco-control advocates, and the sheer weight of evidence against the industry’s misleading marketing of “light” and “mild” tobacco products.	这种忏悔源自美国司法系统和控烟倡导者的联合压力，以及烟草业对“轻”、“柔”型烟草产品误导性营销宣传的纯粹的证据压力。


They should be regarded as a warning: The industry couldn’t be trusted in the past, and it shouldn’t be trusted to do the right thing in the future.	它们应当被视为一种警告：过去这个行业并不可信，我们也不该信任它能在未来做正确的事。


Even today, the same tobacco companies are marketing new products that they claim are less harmful – like “heat-not-burn” devices, which vaporize tobacco to produce a nicotine-containing aerosol – and funding front groups purporting to work for a smoke-free world.	即使在今天，同样这些烟草企业仍在营销据称危害性较小的新型产品——例如气化烟草从而产生含尼古丁气雾剂的“非燃烧型加热”设备——同时资助那些声称为无烟世界而全力奋斗的一线组织。


The world has witnessed similar tactics elsewhere, from Uruguay to Australia, where tobacco companies launch costly legal challenges against legitimate regulation of its deadly products.	人们在世界其他地方也目睹了类似的手段，从乌拉圭到澳大利亚，烟草企业都对针对其致命产品的合法监管提出了昂贵的法律诉讼。


Despite such losses, it will no doubt continue looking for new ways to oppose tobacco restrictions.	尽管遭受到上述损失，但它将毫无疑问寻找反对烟草限制的新方式。


To be sure, the court-ordered airing of “corrective statements” in American media does represent a victory for truth.	可以肯定，法庭命令在美国媒体上发布“修正声明”的确代表了真相的胜利。


It brings closure to an important US Justice Department lawsuit, filed in 1999 under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, and then left partly unresolved, until October 2017, during a decade of appeals and legal wrangling following the 2006 decision.	该声明标志着根据诈骗影响和腐败组织法于1999年提起、并在2017年10月前一直悬而未决的美国司法部重要诉讼案件在2006年宣判后历经十年的上诉和法律纠纷而最终审结。


The statements detail the deadly health effects of smoking and second-hand smoke, including the fact that low-tar and “light” cigarettes are no less harmful than regular ones; that smoking and nicotine are highly addictive; and that cigarettes are “intentionally” manipulated to “maximize the ingestion of nicotine.”	声明详述了吸烟和二手烟对健康的致命影响，包括低焦油和“清淡型”卷烟所造成的危害不比普通卷烟低； 吸烟和尼古丁非常容易上瘾；


Even cigarette manufacturers admit that their products contribute to 1,200 US deaths each day.	就连香烟制造企业也承认其产品每天造成1，200名美国人死亡的事实。


Around the world, tobacco use kills more than seven million people annually.	在世界范围内，吸食卷烟每年杀死超过700万人。


Enough is enough; at this critical moment, we must not let the momentum slip.	是时候适可而止； 在这样的关键时刻，我们决不能放过这次机会。


Governments and health organizations like ours are at war with the tobacco industry, and we will continue fighting until we beat Big Tobacco.	像我们这样的政府和健康组织正在与烟草行业交战，我们会继续奋斗，直到打败大型烟草公司。


If national leaders, health ministers, and finance chiefs ever wondered how far they should go to regulate tobacco products, Big Tobacco’s admissions, together with investors’ second thoughts, have provided an answer: as far as necessary.	如果国家领袖、卫生部长和财政部长曾质疑过要在烟草产品监管方面走多远，大型烟草企业的此次认罪，加之投资者的重新考虑，已经给出了“要多远就有多远”的答案。


Governments face a moral and legal imperative to use the strongest possible measures to protect their citizens from tobacco.	政府在道德和法律领域有义务采用最强有力的措施来保护民众不受烟草的侵害。


One way forward would be for more governments to implement commitments enshrined in the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.	方法之一是更多政府执行世界卫生组织烟草控制框架公约所承载的规定。


The WHO FCTC provides guidelines on topics such as tobacco taxation, public awareness and education, and package warnings.	世卫组织烟草控制框架公约就烟草税、公众意识和教育以及包装警示等相关问题规定了指导方针。


These measures have helped save millions of lives in the last decade, not to mention hundreds of billions of dollars in health costs.	这些措施已经在过去十年挽救了数百万条生命，更不用说节省了数千亿美元的医药费。


But more can be done, which is why we are calling on governments around the world to strengthen implementation of the WHO FCTC by accelerating action on the “MPOWER” tobacco control policies – measures intended to strengthen country-level implementation of the WHO FCTC.	但还有更多工作要做，我们因此呼吁世界各国政府通过加速推进“MPOWER”烟草控制政策——即旨在强化国家层面世卫组织烟草控制框架公约落实的措施——来强化落实世卫组织烟草控制框架公约。


Together, these frameworks represent the strongest defense countries have against the tobacco industry.	上述框架共同代表了各国面对烟草业的最强防护措施。


Moreover, governments should endorse the Protocol to Eliminate the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, which aims to prevent illicit trade, such as smuggling.	此外，政府应承认消除烟草产品非法贸易议定书，该议定书旨在防止非法贸易，例如走私。


While 33 countries and the European Union have signed the protocol, it needs the support of seven more governments before it can enter into force.	尽管33国及欧盟已经签署了该议定书，但其最终生效依然需要得到七国政府的支持。


And, finally, looking ahead to the UN’s High-level Meeting on Non-communicable Diseases in 2018, government leaders must be prepared to demonstrate their commitment to protecting people from heart and lung disease, cancer, and diabetes, by supporting stronger tobacco controls.	最后，展望联合国2018年非传染病高级会议，政府领导人必须通过支持强力控烟来展示他们保护民众避免心肺疾病、癌症和糖尿病的决心。


With its recent admissions, Big Tobacco has been forced to reveal its true nature.	由于不久前的认罪，大型烟草企业被迫暴露了其真实本质。


However reluctantly, these companies have called on all of us to reject their products.	无论内心多不情愿，但这些企业已经呼吁我们所有人抵制他们的产品。


We think it is time to take them up on the offer.	我们认为是时候接受他们的建议。


Smoking Out Big Tobacco	揭露大型烟草企业


BOSTON – Recently, the tobacco industry’s lack of respect for people’s lives, international law, and national sovereignty has been placed under a spotlight.	波士顿——最近，烟草行业不尊重民众生命、国际法和国家主权的问题已经被放到了聚光灯下。


Investigations carried out by the likes of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Guardian newspaper have provided damning evidence of what we in the public health community have known for decades: Big Tobacco, in its relentless pursuit of profit, is subverting, blocking, and weakening public health protections in any way it can.	世界卫生组织（WHO）和卫报等机构所开展的调查已经找到了我们公共卫生界几十年来一直知晓的大量证据：那就是大型烟草公司为不断追求利润，正在想尽一切办法颠覆、阻挠和削弱公共卫生保护。


As the investigations showed, corporations like Philip Morris International (PMI) and British American Tobacco have often used covert tactics, outright bullying, and illicit activities to block progress on the WHO’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), established in 2003.	调查结果显示，像菲利普莫里斯国际和英美烟草公司这样的大型烟草企业常常采用秘密策略、毫不掩饰的欺凌乃至借助非法活动来阻止世界卫生组织在2003年制定的烟草控制框架公约（FCTC）在执行领域所取得的进步。


Now, the United Kingdom’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has confirmed that it is investigating British American Tobacco for a conspiracy of bribery in Central and East Africa.	现在，英国严重欺诈办公室（SFO）已经证实其正在对英美烟草公司展开调查，调查该公司在中非和北非的阴谋贿赂活动。


That is a start.	这仅仅是个开始。


But, given the fundamental conflict between the tobacco industry’s interests and public-health objectives, health practitioners and governments around the world must do more to prevent Big Tobacco from interfering in official policy.	但鉴于烟草业利益与公共卫生目标之间的根本性矛盾，世界各国的卫生从业人员和政府必须采取更多措施，防止大型烟草企业干预官方政策。


Indeed, they must erect an unbreachable firewall between policymaking and the industry at the national and international levels.	事实上，他们必须在政策制定以及国内国际烟草业利益之间树立起一道无法攻破的防火墙。


This idea is embedded in Article 5.3 of the FCTC.	上述理念就反映在烟草控制框架公约第五条第三款当中。


The need for that provision was made apparent by internal tobacco-industry documents released through the Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement, reached between the four largest US tobacco corporations and the attorneys general of 46 US states in 1998.	通过由美国四大烟草公司和1998年美国46个州总检察官所达成的《烟草大和解协议》所泄露出来的烟草行业内部文件明确显示了制定相关条款完全必要。


Those documents revealed, for example, that Philip Morris Companies (then the parent of PMI) viewed the WHO as a threat and sought “countermeasures” to “contain/neutralize/re-orient” it.	那些文件显示菲利普莫里斯公司（当时是菲利普莫里斯国际的母公司）将世界卫生组织视为威胁，并竭尽所能寻求促使其“遏制/抵消/改变方向”的反制举措。


Recent investigations show that PMI targeted global tobacco treaty meetings, wooing delegates, and stacking delegations with industry-friendly trade ministers.	近期的调查结果显示菲利普莫里斯国际针对全球烟草条约会议、讨好会议代表并招募大量对烟草行业友好的贸易部长进入代表团队伍。


BAT, for its part, has taken aim at national lawmakers, reportedly bribing officials in parts of East Africa to block or subvert public policy and force its way into the market, in order to get a new generation in Africa addicted to its product.	英美烟草公司则瞄准国家立法机构，据称曾贿赂东非某些国家官员以求阻止或颠覆公共政策并强行进入市场，目的是让新一代非洲人成为其产品的上瘾者。


All of this has resulted in delayed progress in implementing lifesaving public-health protections around the world – though it hasn’t stopped them.	所有这一切导致在世界各地推行挽救生命的公共卫生保护措施进展缓慢——尽管烟草公司未能彻底阻止这些进展的取得。


Dozens of governments have already begun to implement measures in line with the global tobacco convention’s conflict-of-interest provisions.	数十个国家的政府已经开始落实与全球烟草公约利益冲突条款相一致的举措。


For example, Norway has divested more than $2 billion from the tobacco industry.	举例来讲，挪威已将超过20亿美元的投资从烟草行业中撤出。


The European Union has terminated its controversial agreement with PMI on tackling illicit trade.	而欧盟已经终止了与菲利普莫里斯国际就处理非法贸易问题所签署的争议性协议。


And the Philippines has barred public officials from interacting with the tobacco industry unless absolutely necessary.	而菲律宾则禁止公职人员与烟草业人士打交道，除非情况绝对必要。


With such measures, governments are prioritizing people’s health over the industry’s profits.	通过这些措施，政府正在将民众健康置于烟草业的利润之上。


After all, without Big Tobacco at the table, they are more likely to succeed in implementing measures for reducing smoking rates, whether tried-and-true policies like prohibiting cigarette marketing, or newer measures, such as eliminating branding from cigarette packages.	归根结底，如果不允许大型烟草企业参与政策制定，那么政府在执行降低吸烟率的措施方面取得成功的可能性就更高。 这些措施包括已经经过事实检验的禁止烟草营销政策，此外还包括去掉香烟包装上的品牌标识等一些新举措。


Taken together, these actions are saving millions of lives.	总而言之，成百上千万人的生命正在因为这些措施而得到挽救。


More countries must urgently implement similar policies.	更多国家必须紧急实施类似的政策。


And to do so, they must ensure that they employ processes and policies that are in line with Article 5.3, thereby preventing the industry from subverting their initiatives to reduce smoking rates and improve public health.	要想实现这一目标，它们必须确保落实与第五条第三款相一致的政策和程序，从而防止烟草业颠覆旨在降低吸烟率和改善公共健康的举措。


But Big Tobacco is not the only industry attempting to undermine the public good for the sake of its own interests.	但大型烟草公司并非为保护自身利益而试图破坏公共利益的唯一一个个案。


That is why international legal frameworks like the FCTC must be developed for other industries that are using Big Tobacco’s playbook to weaken public-health legislation and environmental regulations that affect their own lines.	因此我们还必须针对其他行业制定像烟草控制框架公约这样的国际法律框架，这些行业正在利用和大型烟草公司同样的手段来削弱影响其自身行业利益的公共健康立法和环境规则。


The good news is that there is increasing awareness of the use of such tactics not just by Big Tobacco, but also by other similarly powerful industries.	好消息是公众不仅对大型烟草企业、而且对其他类似强势行业利用这种手段的警惕性也越来越高。


At the most recent meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, for example, the fossil-fuel industry’s interference in the talks was a central issue.	在最近召开的一次联合国气候变化框架公约会议上，化石燃料企业对会谈的干预成为人们关注的核心议题。


Now, calls to prevent powerful industries such as Big Oil, Big Pharma, and Big Food from undermining, diluting, or delaying sound policies that advance the public interest are growing louder.	现在，阻止诸如大型石油、大型制药和大型食品企业破坏、稀释或延缓执行促进公共利益的良性政策的公众呼声也越来越高。


The recent SFO investigation and media exposés should reinforce this shift, serving as a powerful incentive for governments to implement stronger conflict-of-interest measures – on tobacco and other issues – at the international and national levels.	近期严重欺诈办公室的调查和媒体的曝光应当可以强化这种态势，有力地推进政府在国际和国内烟草和其他行业领域落实更加强势的利益冲突举措。


Today, there are powerful corporations – from the tobacco and pharmaceutical industries to those engaged in water privatization and climate change – bent on reaping profit at the expense of people’s lives and the environment.	今天，从烟草、制药行业到那些参与水资源私有化和气候变化的强势企业一心一意地以牺牲人们的生命安全和环境为代价来牟取利润。


They have little regard for democratic processes, and, as we now know, they will stop at nothing to undermine any process that could interfere with business as usual.	他们几乎毫不顾及民主进程，而且，我们现在知道，他们将冲破一切阻碍破坏可能干扰其日常运营的任何流程。


The only way to prevent them from doing so is to kick them out of the room.	阻止他们这样做的唯一方法就是将他们踢出谈判桌。


We have the tools to do it.	我们有办法做到这一点。


We just need to use them.	我们只需要很好地加以利用。


A Tax on Robots?	对机器人征税？


ATHENS – Ken makes a decent living operating a large harvester on behalf of farmer Luke.	雅典—肯靠为农场主卢克开大型收割机过着体面生活。


Ken’s salary generates income tax and social security payments that help finance government programs for less fortunate members of his community.	肯的薪水中包含了所得税和社保，帮助政府融资实施帮助其社区内不幸的人的计划。


Alas, Luke is about to replace Ken with Nexus, a robot that can operate the harvester longer, more safely, in any weather, and without lunch breaks, holidays, or sick pay.	可惜，卢克准备用机器人Nexus替换肯，它可以更长时间、更安全、全天候地操作收割机，而不用午歇、假期和病假补贴。


Bill Gates thinks that, to ease the inequality and offset the social costs implied by automation’s displacement effects, either Nexus should pay income tax, or Luke should pay a hefty tax for replacing Ken with a robot.	比尔·盖茨认为，要减小不平等性、抵消自动化的替代效应所造成的社会成本，就必须对Nexus征收所得税，或对卢克征收用机器人替换肯的重税。


And this “robot tax” should be used to finance something like a universal basic income (UBI).	这一“机器人税”应该用于全民基本收入（UBI）等项目。


Gates’s proposal, one of many variants on the UBI theme, allows us to glimpse fascinating aspects of capitalism and human nature that rich societies have neglected for too long.	盖茨的方案是UBI的诸多版本之一，它让我们看到了被富裕国家忽视已久的资本主义和人性中的光明的一面。


The whole point of automation is that, unlike Ken, Nexus will never negotiate a labor contract with Luke.	自动化的全部问题就在于，和肯不同，Nexus不会同卢克谈判劳动合同。


Indeed, it will receive no income.	事实上，它也不会得到收入。


The only way to simulate an income tax on behalf of Nexus is to use Ken’s last annual income as a reference salary and extract from Luke’s revenues income tax and social security charges equivalent to what Ken paid.	要想在Nexus身上模拟所得税，唯一的办法是拿肯最后一年的收入作为参考薪水，并从卢克的营业利润税和社会保险支出中拔出肯支付的部分。


There are three problems with this approach.	这一方法有三个问题。


For starters, whereas Ken’s income would have changed over time had he not been fired, the reference salary cannot change, except arbitrarily and in a manner setting the tax authorities against business.	首先，如果肯不被解雇，他的收入会随时间而改变，而参考薪水无法改变，除非拍脑袋由税收当局根据企业税制定。


The tax office and Luke would end up clashing over impossible estimates of the extent to which Ken’s salary would have risen, or fallen, had he still been employed.	税收当局和卢克最后将陷入无法解决的扯皮：如果肯仍在开收割机的话，他的薪水究竟应该提高或降低多少


Second, the advent of robot-operated machines that have never been operated by humans means there will be no prior human income to act as a reference salary for calculating the taxes these robots must pay.	其次，等到机器人操作此前从未有人操作过的机器时，将不存在人类收入可以作为计算这些机器人应该交多少税的参考薪水。


Finally, it is hard philosophically to justify forcing Luke to pay “income” tax for Nexus but not for the harvester that Nexus operates.	最后，你很难从理论上论证为何卢克必须为Nexus缴纳“所得”税，而不必为Nexus所操作的收割机缴纳所得税。


After all, both are machines, and the harvester has displaced far more human labor than Nexus has.	毕竟，它们都是机器，收割机取代的人力远比Nexus多。


The only defensible justification for treating them differently is that Nexus has greater autonomy.	唯一能论证对它们需要区别对待的理由是Nexus拥有更大的自主权。


But to what extent is Nexus genuinely autonomous in a manner that the harvester is not?	但Nexus究竟拥有多大程度的收割机所不具备的自主权？


However advanced Nexus might be, it can be thought of as autonomous if and only if it develops consciousness, whether spontaneously or with the help of its makers.	不管Nexus有多先进，当且仅当它发展出意识时才能认为它能够自主，不管是自发形成的意识还是在制造者的帮助下形成的意识。


Only if Nexus (like the Nexus-6 replicants in the 1982 film Blade Runner) achieves that leap will “he” have earned the “right” to be thought of as distinct from the harvester he operates.	仅当Nexus（就像1982年的电影《银翼杀手》中的Nexus-6克隆人）实现这一飞越，“他”才能获得可视为不同于他所操作的收割机的“权利”。


But then humanity will have spawned a new species and a new civil rights movement (which I would gladly join) demanding freedom for Nexus and equal rights with Ken – including a living wage, minimum benefits, and enfranchisement.	但接下来，人类会培养出一个新物种和一股新民权运动（我会十分乐于加入其中），要求给予Nexus自由和与肯一样的权利——包括基本生活工资、最低福利和选举权。


Assuming that robots cannot be made to pay income tax without creating new potential for conflict between the tax authorities and business (accompanied by tax arbitrage and corruption), what about taxing Nexus at the point of sale to Luke?	假设机器人无法用来缴纳所得税而不产生税收当局和企业之间的新的潜在冲突（以及相关的税收套利和腐败），那么在Nexus被卖给卢克的时候征税呢？


That would of course be possible: the state would collect a lump-sum tax from Luke the moment he replaces Ken with Nexus.	这当然是可能的：国家可以在卢克用Nexus取代肯的时候征收一次性税收。


Gates supports this second-best alternative to making robots “pay” income tax.	盖茨支持通过这一次优选择来让机器人“缴纳”所得税。


He thinks that slowing down automation and creating tax disincentives to counter technology’s displacement effect is, overall, a sensible policy.	他认为，减缓自动化、形成税收反激励来抵消技术的取代效应整体而言是明智的政策。


But a lump-sum tax on robots would merely lead robot producers to bundle artificial intelligence within other machinery.	但一次性机器人税只能导致机器人生产商将人工智能绑定在其他机械上。


Nexus will increasingly be incorporated within the harvester, making it impossible to tax the robotic element separately from the dumb parts that do the harvesting.	Nexus就日益集成在收割机中，使得税收当局无法将机器人要素与从事收割作业的机械部分分离进行征税。


Either the robot sales tax should be dropped or it should be generalized into a capital goods sales tax.	机器人销售税要那么应该摈弃，要么应该一般化纳入资本商品销售税种。


But imagine the uproar against a tax on all capital goods: Woe betide those who would diminish domestic productivity and competitiveness!	但想想对一切资本商品征税所引起的反对声浪：降低国内生产率和竞争力的人要遭报应的！


Ever since the emergence of industrial capitalism, we have been terrible at differentiating between property and capital, and thus between wealth, rent, and profits.	自工业资本主义诞生以来，我们在区分产权与资本方面表现十分拙劣，在区分财富、租和利润方面亦然。


This is why a wealth tax is so difficult to design.	正因如此，财富税才非常难以设计。


The conceptual problem of differentiating between Nexus and the harvester “he” operates would make it impossible to agree on how a robot tax should work.	区分Nexus和 “他”所操作的收割机这一概念问题将导致人们无法在如何实施机器人税方面无法达成一致。


But why make life under capitalism more complicated than it already is?	但为什么要让资本主义生活比现在更加复杂化呢？


There is an alternative to a robot tax that is easy to implement and simple to justify: a universal basic dividend (UBD), financed from the returns on all capital.	有一种方法可以用来代替机器人税，易于实施且论证起来很简单：全民基本红利（UBD），用全部资本的回报来融资。


Imagine that a fixed portion of new equity issues (IPOs) goes into a public trust that, in turn, generates an income stream from which a UBD is paid.	设想将新股发行（IPO）的一个固定比例用来成立一个公共信托，用该信托反过来形成收入流支付UBD。


Effectively, society becomes a shareholder in every corporation, and the dividends are distributed evenly to all citizens.	社会将在事实上成为所有企业的股东，所得红利平均地分给所有公民。


To the extent that automation improves productivity and corporate profitability, the whole of society would begin to share the benefits.	由于自动化能增进生产率和公司盈利能力，整个社会也将分享这一收益。


No new tax, no complications in the tax code, and no effect on the existing funding of the welfare state.	不需要新税种，不需要让税法更加复杂，也不会对已有的福利国家融资造成影响。


Indeed, as higher profits and their automatic redistribution via the UBD boosted incomes, more funds would become available for the welfare state.	事实上，随着利润的提高以及通过UBD自动实现的再分配提振了收入，将会有更多资金可以用于福利国家。


Coupled with stronger labor rights and a decent living wage, the ideal of shared prosperity would receive a new lease on life.	再加上更强的劳工权利和体面的生活工资，共同繁荣的理想将赢得新生。


The first two industrial revolutions were built on machines produced by great inventors in glorified barns and bought by cunning entrepreneurs who demanded property rights over the income stream “their” machines generated.	前两次工业革命的基础是伟大发明家灵光一现制造的机器，它们被狡猾的企业家买下，并要求获得“他们的”机器所产生的收入流的产权。


Today’s technological revolution is marked by the increasing socialization of the production of capital.	今天的技术革命的标志是不断社会化的资本生产。


A practical response would be to socialize the property rights over the large income streams capital is now generating.	一个务实的应对之道是将资本正在形成的巨大的收入流的产权也社会化。


In short, forget about taxing either Nexus or Luke.	简言之，忘掉对Nexus或卢克征税吧。


Instead, place a portion of Luke’s equity in the farm in a public trust, which then provides a universal payment to everyone.	相反，拿出卢克的农场股份的一部分投入公共信托，然后用这个信托给所有人提供全民红利。


In addition, we must legislate to improve the wages and conditions of every human still in employment, while our taxes provide Ken unemployment benefits, a guaranteed paid job in his community, or retraining.	此外，我们必须立法改善仍在工作的所有人的工资和条件，同时用税收提供肯的失业救济、在他所在社区重新为他找一个带薪工作，或为他提供再培训。


Engineering Better Refugee Health Care	打造更好的难民卫生服务


BOSTON – A resurgence of nativism and xenophobia in countries around the world has created a toxic environment for those fleeing from geopolitical crises.	发自波士顿——世界各国本土保护主义和仇外心理的复苏为那些逃离地缘政治危机的人们创造了一个有害的环境。


But among the many challenges that refugees must confront while they await resettlement, finding access to high-quality physical and mental health care tops the list.	而在等待重新安置的难民所面临的众多挑战之中，寻求获取高质量身心健康服务的渠道是最为亟待解决的问题。


It is a challenge that demands more attention not just from doctors, nurses, non-governmental organizations, and other relevant actors, but also from engineers, who can make indispensable contributions to global public health. Those contributions are highly relevant to refugees.	这个挑战不仅需要得到医生，护士，非政府组织和其他相关行动者的更多关注，还跟工程师有关系——他们也可以为全球公共卫生做出不可或缺的贡献，而这些贡献则与难民高度相关。


Beyond building bridges and creating gadgets, engineers can help improve the quality and affordability of health care around the world, by developing faster methods for diagnosing diseases and delivering medical services.	除了架桥建屋和创造工具之外，工程师还可以通过开发能更快诊断疾病和提供医疗服务的手段来协助提高全球卫生保健质量以及降低患者负担。


Scientists and engineers in my own research area have already invented devices to help vulnerable babies breathe easier, detect malaria and HIV in war zones, and keep counterfeit medicines out of rural areas.	在我自身研究领域，科学家和工程师已经发明了可以帮助体弱婴儿呼吸更顺畅，在战区检测疟疾和艾滋病毒，以及将假药清除出农村地区的众多设备。


Still, not enough engineering expertise has been brought to bear in refugee settlements, whose populations have swelled in recent years as more people have had to flee from conflicts and natural disasters.	然而，随着越来越多的民众不得不逃离冲突和自然灾害，各个难民定居点容纳的人口不断增加，但与之相配套的工程技术还不足够。


The UN estimates that there are more than 65 million forcibly displaced people in the world today, and that more refugees live in formal and informal encampments than ever before.	联合国估计当今世界上有超过6500万被迫流离失所者，而生活在正式和非正式营地的难民数量则比以往任何时期都更多。


Although governments and NGOs have made efforts to provide basic health care to refugees, they have struggled to do so reliably.	虽然政府和非政府组织致力于向难民提供基本医疗保健，但要真正做到这一点可不容易。


Engineers have both an opportunity and a responsibility to close crucial gaps in the current system.	而对此工程师既有机会也有责任去缩小存在于当前系统中的关键性差距。


Tackling this challenge will require greater attention in three key areas.	应对这一挑战需要对三个关键领域给予更多重视。


The first is the classroom, where we should continue to raise awareness – particularly in the field of biomedical engineering – of the health-care challenges that refugees face.	第一个是学校——我们应该继续提高针对难民面临的卫生保健挑战的意识——特别是在生物医学工程领域。


Moreover, faculty, students, researchers, and practitioners who have an interest in developing appropriate solutions to global health problems should be afforded the opportunity to do so.	此外，有兴趣为全球健康问题创设适当解决方案的教师，学生，研究人员和从业者都应该得到付诸实践的机会。


At the moment, there are too few educational programs that focus specifically on crisis-related biomedical engineering issues.	目前专门针对与危机有关的生物医学工程问题的教育项目还太少。


Fortunately, however, there are existing models to follow.	但是幸运的是，已经有一些已有的模式可以遵循。


At the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, for example, the free online course “Health in Humanitarian Crises” is bringing the issue to students in engineering departments globally.	例如，在伦敦卫生和热带医学学院，免费在线课程《人道主义危机中的卫生问题》将这一问题呈现到了全球工程界学生面前。


At the American University of Beirut, summer school students recently introduced engineering strategies for helping displaced people.	在贝鲁特美国大学，夏季课程的学生最近引入了帮助流离失所者的工程策略。


And at my institution, Boston University, we research ways to improve the quality and practice of medicine in the developing world.	而在我所属的波士顿大学，我们研究改善发展中国家医药质量和应用的方法。


In 2012, my colleagues and I created PharmaChk, a portable device that doctors can use to detect fake or ineffective medications in hard-to-reach places.	2012年，我的同事和我创设出一种名为PharmaChk的便携式设备，让医生可以用来一些在难以到达的偏远地区检测假冒或者无效的药物。


Second, governments and NGOs that work with refugees can do more to include medical engineering professionals in their efforts.	第二，致力于难民工作的政府和非政府组织可以做更多的工作去将医疗工程专业人员涵盖进来。


Private and public entities such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID, and Grand Challenges Canada have worked with engineers to produce rigorous, ethically sound, and scalable medical solutions in global health, and the same should be done with respect to displaced people.	比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会，美国国家开发署和加拿大大型挑战基金（Grand Challenges Canada）等私人和公共机构已经与工程师展开合作在全球卫生领域制定严谨，合乎道德且可扩展的医疗解决方案，而对流离失所者也应该做到这一点。


Third, and perhaps most important, engineers themselves need to step up their engagement with people and groups working on the front lines of the refugee crisis.	第三，也许也是最重要的一点，就是工程师们自身需要加强与难民危机前线工作人员和团体的接触。


That means working with local hospitals, clinics, ministries, and health-care providers, which can serve as key conduits for bioengineering expertise.	这意味着与当地的医院，诊所，宗教团体和卫生保健提供者合作，这可以作为传播生物工程专业知识的关键渠道。


Cross-disciplinary learning is important not only for spreading awareness, but also for improving the financial sustainability and scalability of technological innovations.	跨学科的学习不仅对于传播意识极为重要，也是可以提高技术创新的经济可持续性和可扩展性。


A handful of bioengineering startups and aid groups, such as Engineers Without Borders, have begun to tackle health-related problems in refugee communities.	有几个生物工程初创企业和援助团体，如无国界工程师，已开始在难民社区解决与健康有关的问题。


These efforts have generally focused on methods for improving water sanitation and energy delivery.	这些努力一般侧重于改进供水卫生和能源输送的方法。


Other initiatives, such as telemedicine, in which clinical medical advice is delivered through mobile phones, have become a lifeline for many communities.	而其他类似远程医疗这类通过手机提供临床医疗咨询的举措也已成为许多社区的生命线。


Beyond these examples, efforts to engineer health-care solutions in refugee communities have been limited.	除了这些例子之外，在难民社区打造卫生保健工程解决方案的努力依然有限。


To apply biomedical engineering to refugee health challenges, students, experts, and practitioners need to familiarize themselves with conditions in refugee settlements, and deepen their understanding of the complex traumas that afflict refugees.	为了将生物医学工程应用于难民健康挑战，学生，专家和从业者需要去熟悉难民定居点的条件，并加深对困难难民所受复杂创伤的理解。


Refugee camps need robust point-of-care solutions that are not just effective, but also culturally sensitive and socially responsible.	难民营需要健全的护理解决方案，这些解决方案不仅要有效，还得关注难民的文化特质并具有社会责任感。


Throughout history, engineers have been society’s problem solvers.	纵观历史，工程师一直是社会的问题解决者。


Today, creative thinking is needed to mitigate the plight of those who have been forcibly displaced from their homes.	如今我们需要创造性思维来缓解被迫流离失所者的困境。


The international community has proved incapable of ending the crises that are currently sending refugees in search of safety. But biomedical engineers can at least ensure that they receive the care they need.	事实证明国际社会无法终结那些不断制造出难民的危机，但生物医学工程师至少可以确保这些人能得到他们所需的护理。


Barbarians at the Monetary Gate	货币空间的野蛮人


HONG KONG – Financial markets today are thriving.	香港—眼下，金融市场兴旺发达。


The Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq composite index have all reached record highs lately, with emerging-economy financial markets also performing strongly, as investors search for stability amid widespread uncertainty.	因投资者在普遍的不确定性中寻找稳定性，道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数最近纷纷创出历史新高，新兴经济体金融市场表现也很强劲。


But, because this performance is not based on market fundamentals, it is unsustainable – and very risky.	但是，这一强劲表现不是基于市场基本面，因此是不可持续的，也是非常危险的。


According to Mohamed El-Erian, the lost lesson of the 2007 financial crisis is that current economic-growth models are “overly reliant on liquidity and leverage – from private financial institutions, and then from central banks.”	穆罕默德·艾利安（Mohamed El-Erian）指出，人们没有从2007年金融危机汲取的教训是，当前的经济增长模式“过于依赖流动性和杠杆——先是来自私营金融机构，然后来自央行”。


And, indeed, a key driver of financial markets’ performance today is the expectation of continued central-bank liquidity.	而事实上，当前金融市场表现背后的一个关键因素是人们预期央行流动性还会继续保持充裕。


After the US Federal Reserved revealed its decision last month to leave interest rates unchanged, the Dow Jones industrial average set intraday and closing records; the Nasdaq, too, reached all-time highs.	上个月，美联储决定保持利率不变，此后道琼斯工业平均指数频频创出日内和收盘新高； 纳斯达克综合指数也创造了历史新高。


Now, financial markets are waiting for signals from this year’s meeting of the world’s major central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.	目前，金融市场正等待在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）举行的世界主要央行行长会议的信号。


But there is another factor that could further destabilize an already-tenuous leverage- and liquidity-based system: digital currencies.	但另一个因素可能会进一步动摇已经摇摇欲坠的基于杠杆和流动性的全球金融系统，这就是数字货币。


And, on this front, policymakers and regulators have far less control.	在这方面，决策者和监管者还远远不能掌控局面。


The concept of private cryptocurrencies was born of mistrust of official money.	私密货币的概念产生于对官方货币的不信任。


In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto – the mysterious creator of bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency – described it as a “purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash,” which “would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”	2008年，神秘的比特币（第一种分散化的数字货币）创造者中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）把比特币说成是“点对点版的电子现金”，它“让在线支付由一方直接支付给另一方，而不必经过金融机构。 ”


A 2016 working paper by the International Monetary Fund distinguished digital currency (legal tender that could be digitized) from virtual currency (non-legal tender).	国际货币基金组织（IMF）的一篇2016年工作论文将数字货币（可以数字化的法定货币）和虚拟货币（非法定货币）做了区分。


Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, or a kind of virtual currency that uses cryptography and distributed ledgers (the blockchain) to keep transactions both public and fully anonymous.	比特币是私密货币，或者说是一种用加密算法和分布式记账（区块链）来保证交易公开和完全匿名的虚拟货币。


However you slice it, the fact is that, nine years after Nakamoto introduced bitcoin, the concept of private electronic money is poised to transform the financial-market landscape.	不管你如何剖析，事实就是，在中本聪发明比特币九年后，私密电子货币的概念大有让金融市场改头换面之势。


This month, the value of bitcoin reached $4,483, with a market cap of $74.5 billion, more than five times larger than at the beginning of 2017.	本月，比特币币值达到了4,483美元，总市值达到了745亿美元，比2017年年初增加了五倍多。


Whether this is a bubble, destined to collapse, or a sign of a more radical shift in the concept of money, the implications for central banking and financial stability will be profound.	不论这是一个注定将破灭的泡沫，还是一个货币概念发生更彻底的变化的预兆，其对中央银行业务和金融稳定的影响都将是深远的。


At first, central bankers and regulators were rather supportive of the innovation represented by bitcoin and the blockchain that underpins it.	一开始，央行和监管者对以比特币以及作为比特币基础的区块链为代表的创新相当支持。


It is difficult to argue that people should not be allowed to use a privately created asset to settle transactions without the involvement of the state.	很难论证不应该允许人们用私人创造的资产，在没有国家介入的情况下结算交易。


But national authorities were wary of potential illegal uses of such assets, reflected in the bitcoin-enabled, dark-web marketplace called Silk Road, a clearinghouse for, among other things, illicit drugs.	但监管当局担心这种资产可能用于非法交易，比如一家名为丝路（Silk Road）的基于比特币的暗网市场里就有毒品交易。


Silk Road was shut down in 2013, but more such marketplaces have sprung up.	丝路在2013年被取缔，但此后有更多的类似市场涌现。


When the bitcoin exchange Mt.	2014年，比特币交易所Mt.


Gox failed in 2014, some central banks, such as the People’s Bank of China, started discouraging the use of bitcoin.	Gox倒闭，中国人民银行等一些央行开始阻击比特币的使用。


By November 2015, the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures, made up of ten major central banks, launched an in-depth examination of digital currencies.	到2015年11月，由十家主要央行组建的国际清算银行支付和市场基础设施委员会（Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures）进行了对数字货币的深度考察。


But the danger of cryptocurrencies extends beyond facilitation of illegal activities. Like conventional currencies, cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value.	但私密货币的威胁不仅在于它为非法活动提供了便利，而且，和传统纸币一样，私密电子货币不具有内在价值。


But, unlike official money, they also have no corresponding liability, meaning that there is no institution like a central bank with a vested interest in sustaining their value.	但和官方纸币不同，它们也没有相应的负债，这意味着不存在类似于央行的机构来维持其币值的义务及相应利益。


Instead, cryptocurrencies function based on the willingness of people engaged in transactions to treat them as valuable.	相反，私密货币的功能是基于人们参与交易、接受它们的价值的意愿。


With the value of the proposition depending on attracting more and more users, cryptocurrencies take on the quality of a Ponzi scheme.	加密货币的价值主张依赖于吸引越来越多的用户，因此也就具备庞氏骗局的特征。


As the scale of cryptocurrency usage expands, so do the potential consequences of a collapse.	随着私密货币使用量的扩大，崩溃的潜在后果也更加严重。


Already, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies amounts to nearly one tenth the value of the physical stock of official gold, with the capability to handle significantly larger payment operations, owing to low transaction costs.	目前，私密货币的市值已经接近官方实物黄金存量价值的十分之一，拜其交易成本低的特点所赐，私密货币能够处理规模大得多的支付操作。


That means that cryptocurrencies are already systemic in scale.	这意味着私密货币在规模上已经具有系统性影响。


There is no telling how far this trend will go.	这一趋势还会走多远不得而知。


Technically, the supply of cryptocurrencies is infinite: bitcoin is capped at 21 million units, but this can be increased if a majority of “miners” (who add transaction records to the public ledger) agree.	技术上，私密货币的供给是无限的：比特币的上限是2,100万个单位，但如果绝大多数“矿工”（向公开账目上增加分布式记账记录的人）同意，这一上限可以提高。


Demand is related to mistrust of conventional stores of value.	需求取决于人们对常规价值储藏手段的不信任程度。


If people fear that excessive taxation, regulation, or social or financial instability places their assets at risk, they will increasingly turn to cryptocurrencies.	如果人们担心过度的税收、监管或社会和金融动荡威胁到他们的资产，他们就越多地囤积私密货币。


Last year’s IMF report indicated that cryptocurrencies have already been used to circumvent exchange and capital controls in China, Cyprus, Greece, and Venezuela.	去年的IMF报告表明，在中国、塞浦路斯、希腊和委内瑞拉，私密货币已经被用来规避外汇和资本管制。


For countries subject to political uncertainty or social unrest, cryptocurrencies offer an attractive mechanism of capital flight, exacerbating the difficulties of maintaining domestic financial stability.	对面临政治不确定性和社会动荡的国家来说，私密货币提供了很有吸引力的资本出逃机制，加剧了保持国内金融稳定的困难。


Moreover, while the state has no role in managing cryptocurrencies, it will be responsible for cleaning up any mess left by a burst bubble.	此外，尽管国家在管理私密货币方面还没有什么作用，但它却需要负责为可能的泡沫破裂收拾残局。


And, depending on where and when a bubble bursts, the mess could be substantial.	此外，取决于泡沫在哪里以及在何时破灭，留下的残局可能很难收拾。


In advanced economies with reserve currencies, central banks may be able to mitigate the damage.	在拥有储备货币的发达经济体，央行可能能够更容易减轻伤害。


The same may not be true for emerging economies.	而对新兴经济体来说就未必如此了。


An invasive new species does not pose an immediate threat to the largest trees in the forest.	一种新的入侵物种不会立即给森林中最大的树木造成威胁。


But it doesn’t take long for less-developed systems – the saplings on the forest floor – to feel the effects.	但要不了多久，欠发达系统——森林底层的幼苗——就会感受到影响。


Cryptocurrencies are not merely new species to watch with interest; central banks must act now to rein in the very real threats they pose.	对私密货币不能停留在仅仅饶有兴致地去观察一个新物种， 央行必须马上行动起来，遏制它们可能造成的实实在在的威胁。


Crypto-Fool’s Gold?	加密愚人金？


CAMBRIDGE – Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin the biggest bubble in the world today, or a great investment bet on the cutting edge of new-age financial technology?	坎布里奇—加密货币比特币是当今世上最大的泡沫，还是押注于尖端新金融技术的伟达投资？


My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will thrive, but that the price of Bitcoin will collapse.	我的最佳猜测是，从长期看，这项技术会繁荣，但比特币价格也会崩溃。


If you haven’t been following the Bitcoin story, its price is up 600% over the past 12 months, and 1,600% in the past 24 months.	如果你还不了解比特币的故事的话，它是这样的：比特币价格在过去12个月里上涨了600%，在过去24个月里上涨了1,600% 。


At over $4,200 (as of October 5), a single unit of the virtual currency is now worth more than three times an ounce of gold.	如今，这种虚拟货币每个单位价格超过4,200美元（10月5日价格），是一盎司黄金价格的三倍多。


Some Bitcoin evangelists see it going far higher in the next few years.	一些比特币拥趸认为它还会在未来几年大幅上涨。


What happens from here will depend a lot on how governments react.	到底会怎样，在很大程度上取决于政府怎么做。


Will they tolerate anonymous payment systems that facilitate tax evasion and crime?	政府会容忍方便避税和犯罪的匿名支付系统吗？


Will they create digital currencies of their own?	政府会创造自己的数字货币吗？


Another key question is how successfully Bitcoin’s numerous “alt-coin” competitors can penetrate the market.	另一个关键问题是比特币的众多“另类货币”竞争对手们能够在多大呈上渗透这个市场。


In principle, it is supremely easy to clone or improve on Bitcoin’s technology.	理论上，克隆或改进比特币技术非常容易。


What is not so easy is to duplicate Bitcoin’s established lead in credibility and the large ecosystem of applications that have built up around it.	不容易之处是复制比特币所建立的领先的信誉以及围绕它所建立起来的庞大的应用生态系统。


For now, the regulatory environment remains a free-for-all.	目前，监管环境仍然非常自由。


China’s government, concerned about the use of Bitcoin in capital flight and tax evasion, has recently banned Bitcoin exchanges.	中国政府担心比特币用于资本外逃和避税，最近禁止了比特币交易。


Japan, on the other hand, has enshrined Bitcoin as legal tender, in an apparent bid to become the global center of fintech.	另一方面，日本将比特币列为法定货币，显然希望借此成为全球金融技术中心。


The United States is taking tentative steps to follow Japan in regulating fintech, though the endgame is far from clear.	美国也跟随日本的脚步，对监管金融技术做出了一些尝试，但结果到底怎样仍不清楚。


Importantly, Bitcoin does not need to win every battle to justify a sky-high price.	重要的是，比特币并不需要在每条战线上都取得胜利才能证明它值高价。


Japan, the world’s third largest economy, has an extraordinarily high currency-to-income ratio (roughly 20%), so Bitcoin’s success there is a major triumph.	作为世界第三大经济体，日本的货币-收入比非常高（达到了20%左右），因此比特币在日本取得成功是一场重大胜利。


In Silicon Valley, drooling executives are both investing in Bitcoin and pouring money into competitors.	在硅谷，垂涎三尺的高管们同时投资于比特币和它的竞争对手们。


After Bitcoin, the most important is Ethereum.	除了比特币，最重要的以太坊（Ethereum）。


The sweeping, Amazon-like ambition of Ethereum is to allow its users to employ the same general technology to negotiate and write “smart contracts” for just about anything.	以太坊有着亚马逊式的横扫一切的雄心，意欲让用户使用一样的通用技术，为一切东西谈判和制定“智能合同”。


As of early October, Ethereum’s market capitalization stood at $28 billion, versus $72 billon for Bitcoin.	10月初，以太坊市值大约为280亿美元，而比特币为720亿美元。


Ripple, a platform championed by the banking sector to slash transaction costs for interbank and overseas transfers, is a distant third at $9 billion.	由银行部门建立、可大幅降低同业和海外转账交易成本的平台Ripple名列第三，但遥遥落后，市值只有90亿美元。


Behind the top three are dozens of fledgling competitors.	前三强之后还有数十家新晋竞争者。


Most experts agree that the ingenious technology behind virtual currencies may have broad applications for cyber security, which currently poses one of the biggest challenges to the stability of the global financial system.	大部分专家都认为，虚拟货币背后的精妙科技可以在网络安全方面起到广泛作用。 目前，网络安全是全球金融体系所面临的最大额稳定性挑战之一。


For many developers, the goal of achieving a cheaper, more secure payments mechanism has supplanted Bitcoin’s ambition of replacing dollars.	对许多开发者来说，实现更廉价、更安全的支付机制已经替代了比特币取代美元的野心。


But it is folly to think that Bitcoin will ever be allowed to supplant central-bank-issued money.	但你如果认为比特币有望成为央行发行货币的补充，那就失之愚蠢了。


It is one thing for governments to allow small anonymous transactions with virtual currencies; indeed, this would be desirable.	政府允许用虚拟货币进行小型匿名交易，这是一回事，事实上，这是值得追求的事。


But it is an entirely different matter for governments to allow large-scale anonymous payments, which would make it extremely difficult to collect taxes or counter criminal activity.	但政府允许大规模匿名支付，从而让征税和打击犯罪活动变得极其困难，这就是截然不同的另一回事了。


Of course, as I note in my recent book on past, present, and future currencies, governments that issue large-denomination bills also risk aiding tax evasion and crime.	当然，我在关于过去、现在和未来的货币的近著中指出，发行大额钞票的政府也有可能会便利避税和犯罪。


But cash at least has bulk, unlike virtual currency.	但现金和虚拟货币不同，它至少是实物存在。


It will be interesting to see how the Japanese experiment evolves.	看看日本的试验如何演进将是一件饶有兴致的事情。


The government has indicated that it will force Bitcoin exchanges to be on the lookout for criminal activity and to collect information on deposit holders.	日本政府已经表明，它将强制要求比特币交易所接受犯罪行为监控并要收集关于比特币存款持有者的信息。


Still, one can be sure that global tax evaders will seek ways to acquire Bitcoin anonymously abroad and then launder their money through Japanese accounts.	尽管如此，我们仍然可以确定，全球避税者会设法匿名从国外获取比特币，然后通过日本账户将钱漂白。


Carrying paper currency in and out of a country is a major cost for tax evaders and criminals; by embracing virtual currencies, Japan risks becoming a Switzerland-like tax haven – with the bank secrecy laws baked into the technology.	携带纸币进出一个国家对于避税者和罪犯来说代价高昂； 接受虚拟货币的日本有可能成为瑞士式的避税港——银行保密法让位给了技术。


Were Bitcoin stripped of its near-anonymity, it would be hard to justify its current price.	如果比特币失去了几乎匿名的特点，其当前价格便很难支撑。


Perhaps Bitcoin speculators are betting that there will always be a consortium of rogue states allowing anonymous Bitcoin usage, or even state actors such as North Korea that will exploit it.	也许比特币投机客是下注于永远会找到流氓国家联盟允许使用匿名的比特币，甚至有朝鲜这样的国家会利用比特币。


Would the price of Bitcoin drop to zero if governments could perfectly observe transactions?	如果政府能够完美地观察到交易情况，比特币价格是否会归零？


Perhaps not.	也许不会。


Even though Bitcoin transactions require an exorbitant amount of electricity, with some improvements, Bitcoin might still beat the 2% fees the big banks charge on credit and debit cards.	即使比特币交易需要大量电力，但只要稍加改进，比特币就能击败大银行对信用卡和借记卡所收的2%的费用。


Finally, it is hard to see what would stop central banks from creating their own digital currencies and using regulation to tilt the playing field until they win.	最后，很难说有什么东西能够阻止央行创造自己的数字货币，并用监管手段给予它们竞争地位，直到它们胜出。


The long history of currency tells us that what the private sector innovates, the state eventually regulates and appropriates.	漫长的货币史告诉我们，对于私人部门的创新发明，国家最终都会监管并收归己有。


I have no idea where Bitcoin’s price will go over the next couple years, but there is no reason to expect virtual currency to avoid a similar fate.	我不知道未来几年比特币价格会达到什么程度，但没有理由认为虚拟货币能逃脱同样的命运。


Capitalizing on Climate Unity	抓住气候团结的机会


BONN – When Donald Trump was elected US president a year ago, some said the end of the Paris climate agreement was nigh.	波恩—一年前，特朗普当选为美国总统的时候，有人说巴黎气候协定的末日就在眼前了。


Yet, as the latest round of global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, has shown, the world’s political leaders are more committed to the deal than ever.	但是，在德国波恩举行的最新一轮全球气候谈判表明，世界政治领导人对该协议的决心比以往任何时候多要坚定。


This is good news, but the fact remains that countries’ commitments do not yet add up to enough to turn the tide – and our window of opportunity to act effectively on climate change is rapidly closing.	这是好消息，但事实是，各国的决心还不足以扭转潮流——而我们在气候变化问题上采取有效行动的机会窗口正在迅速关闭。


Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States – the world’s largest historical carbon dioxide emitter – from the Paris agreement dealt the accord a major blow.	特朗普让美国——全世界历史最大排放国退出巴黎协定的决定给巴黎协定带来了沉重一击。


Many of America’s closest allies – including both of our countries, the Marshall Islands and Australia – were deeply disappointed by the move, which was shortsighted, for both America and the world.	许多美国最紧密的盟友——包括我们两人的祖国马绍尔群岛和澳大利亚——对此深表失望，这是一个短视的决定，不管对美国还是对世界都是如此。


But it is hard not to take heart from the fresh wave of global resolve Trump’s decision has unleashed, both globally and within the US itself.	但特朗普的决定很显然也激发了美国内外的新一波全球决心。


Almost every major US state, city, and company has now pledged to do more to ensure that their country can meet its commitments, despite the Trump administration’s opposition.	几乎所有美国州、城市和公司都承诺要做更多事确保美国兑现承诺，尽管特朗普政府已经翻脸不认人。


The fact that climate action is now the worlds’ biggest economic opportunity has certainly helped.	气候行动是现今世界最大的经济机会，这一事实显然大有助益。


According to the Trump administration’s own analysis, more than twice as many Americans are now working in the solar industry than in coal, oil, and gas combined.	据特朗普政府自己分析，如今在太阳能产业工作的美国人，比煤炭、石油和天然气行业加起来还要多一倍多。


And earlier this year, the OECD indicated that we could boost global growth by 5% per year by 2050, simply by linking the climate and growth agendas.	今年早些时候，经合组织表示，将气候与全球日程联系起来每年能够带来5%的全球增长提振。


There is no time to waste; climate change has already arrived.	没有时间可以浪费； 气候变化已经到来。


This year’s record-breaking drought in the Marshall Islands, apocalyptic storms in the Caribbean, and devastating floods in Bangladesh and the US demonstrate this.	今年马绍尔群岛创纪录的干旱、加勒比海地区毁天灭地的风暴，以及孟加拉国和美国灾难性的洪水都证明了这一点。


As the United Nations Environment Programme recently reminded us, even if every country hits its existing 2030 emissions-reduction targets, we will be unable to limit warming to below 1.5° Celsius above preindustrial levels – the threshold, recognized in the Paris agreement, beyond which the impact of climate change becomes far greater.	联合国环境规划署提醒我们，即使每个国家都实现现有2030年减排目标，我们也无法将变暖限制在前工业化水平以上1. 5℃以内。


Our chances even of staying within the more conservative – and dangerous – 2° Celsius limit will be slim.	5℃的阈值的话，气候变化的影响将大幅增加。 即使是实现更保守和更危险的升温上限——2℃希望也不甚乐观。


To ignore this reality is to gamble with the existential future of many island countries, not to mention the prosperity of the global economy.	忽视这一现实就是在拿许多岛国的未来生存赌博，更不用说全球经济的繁荣了。


Without a sharp rise in global ambition for emissions reductions by 2020, we will be unable to save the world’s most vulnerable countries.	如果全世界不携手提高2020年减排目标，我们就无法拯救全世界最脆弱的国家。


And if runaway climate change takes hold, no country will be immune to its effects.	而一旦气候变化失控之势形成，没有国家能够独善其身。


Unfortunately, things will get a lot worse before they get better.	不幸的是，情况在发生好转之前还将先大大恶化。


That is why we must step up our efforts to boost our resilience to the climate effects we won’t be able to avoid, and address the associated security consequences.	因此，我们必须努力提高我们面对无可避免的气候影响的恢复力，并解决相关的安全问题。


In the meantime, we must urgently increase the ambition of our climate commitments.	与此同时，我们必须尽快提高我们的气候承诺的目标。


Fortunately, several upcoming events offer an opportunity to do just that.	幸运的是，一些即将到来的会议为此提供了机会。


We need to seize that opportunity with both hands.	我们使出浑身解数抓住这个机会。


Next month, French President Emmanuel Macron will host a conference to mark the two-year anniversary of the Paris agreement.	下个月，法国总统马克龙将主持巴黎协定两周年会议。


And next September, California Governor Jerry Brown will host his own summit to galvanize greater action by cities, companies, and other non-state actors.	明年9月，加利福尼亚州州长杰瑞·布朗（Jerry Brown）将主持峰会推动城市、公司和其他非国家行动方的动作。


The biggest opportunity, however, will come in 2019, when UN Secretary-General António Guterres convenes world leaders in New York for the biggest climate gathering since the Paris talks.	但最大的机会将发生在2019年，联合国秘书长古特雷斯将在纽约与全世界领导人召开自巴黎谈判以来最大规模的气候会议。


We need to build an arc of ambition across these events that can, in the words of our friend Tony de Brum, the late Marshallese foreign minister and untiring climate warrior at the Paris conference, deliver a pathway to survival for the most vulnerable.	用我们的朋友、已故的马绍尔群岛外交部长、巴黎会议上的不屈不挠的气候斗士托尼·德布鲁姆（Tony de Brum）的话说，我们必须利用这些会议，树立一个雄心之弧（an arc of ambition），给最脆弱群体一条生路。


Some significant players are already going above and beyond their pledges.	一些主要行动方已经做出了超过承诺的努力。


A number of others, including the Marshall Islands, are set to bring forward new targets by 2020, to augment their current targets, which reach only as far as 2025.	其他许多行动方，包括马绍尔群岛在内，准备在2020年推出新目标，扩展目前只延续到2025年的目标。


Still others – including France, India, and New Zealand – have said informally that they are eager to do more.	还有一些行动方——包括法国、印度和新西兰——则非正式地表示希望能做得更多。


The truth is that almost all countries have the capacity to do more, especially if the support is there and the opportunities are identified.	事实是，几乎所有国家都有能力做得更多，特别是当它们能够获得支持并认识到机会的时候。


The imperative now is to create the right political conditions both to motivate and facilitate action.	现在的要务是创造正确的政治条件动员和便利行动。


As more countries signal their ability to increase the ambition of their commitments, still more will follow.	随着越来越多的国家表现出提高承诺目标的能力，还会有更多国家跟进。


At the same time, we must ensure that every sector, as well as every country, does its fair share.	与此同时，我们必须确保所有行业，以及所有国家，都承担公平的责任。


This includes, for example, international shipping, which, if it were a country, would be the world’s sixth-largest emitter.	这其中包括（比如）国际航运业，如果把它视为一个国家，那么它将是世界第六大排放国。


Next year’s “Talanoa Dialogue” – to be convened by Fiji, which last week became the first island state to chair UN climate talks – will help countries identify exactly how they can achieve the goals set in the Paris agreement.	明年的“塔拉诺阿对话”（Talanoa Dialogue）将帮助各国认识它们如何实现在巴黎协定所定下的目标。 塔拉诺阿对话将在斐济召开，上周，斐济刚刚成为第一个担任联合国气候对话主席国的岛国。


That dialogue, which countries should approach in good faith, must be a springboard for further action.	各国应该怀着良好的意愿参加此次对话，务必使其成为更进一步行动的跳板。


To that end, the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report laying out pathways for keeping the temperature rise below the 1.5°C threshold will be crucial.	在这方面，气候变化政府间委员会的最新报告将是一个关键。 该报告提出了将升温幅度限制在1.


The science remains key.	5℃阈值内的方法。 科学仍然是关键。


The Paris talks proved that political success is possible, if leaders are given the right platform, if civil society mobilizes behind them, and if the world acts in unison.	巴黎谈判证明，政治成功是可能的，如果领导人能够获得正确的平台、公民社会能够在他们身后动员起来、世界能够团结行动的话。


To get the rest of the way to a sustainable future, we must apply this lesson again.	要满足通往可持续未来之路的剩余条件的话，我们必须再次运用这一教训。


The catchphrase at the Bonn conference was “further, faster, and together.”	波恩会议的口号是“更远，更快，更团结”。


Our collective challenge is to translate a nice-sounding slogan into reality.	我们的集体挑战就是将响亮的口号转化为现实。


The Risks to America’s Booming Economy	美国经济繁荣背后的风险


CAMBRIDGE – After a long and slow recovery from the recession that began a decade ago, the United States economy is now booming.	坎布里奇—在经历了漫长而缓慢的从十年前开始的衰退中的复苏之后，目前美国经济正在繁荣。


The labor market is at full employment, the inflation rate is rising, and households are optimistic.	劳动力市场实现了充分就业，通货膨胀率上升，家庭态度乐观。


Manufacturing firms and homebuilders are benefiting from increasing activity.	制造业企业和建筑商从经济活动的活跃中获益。


The economy is poised for stronger growth in the year ahead.	明年经济预计能够实现更加强劲的增长。


We no longer hear worries about secular stagnation.	我们不再听到有人担心长期停滞。


The overall unemployment rate is just 4.7%, while unemployment among college graduates is only 2.4%.	总体失业率只有4. 7%，而大学毕业生失业率更是低至2.


Average hourly earnings are 2.8% higher than they were a year ago.	4%。 平均时薪比一年前提高了2.


The tight labor market and rising wages are inducing some individuals who had stopped looking for work to return to the labor force, boosting the participation rate.	8%。 趋紧的劳动力市场和上涨的工资使得一些此前放弃寻找工作的人再次加入劳动力大军，从而刺激了劳动参与率。


A clear indication that the economy is at full employment is that the rate of inflation is increasing.	一个经济处于充分就业状态的明确信号是通胀率正在上升。


The “core” consumer price index (which omits volatile energy and food prices) has reached an annual rate of 2.2%, substantially higher than the 1.8% average during the previous three years.	“核心”消费物价指数（不含波动较大的能源和食品价格）达到了2. 2%的年率，显著高于此前三年1.


During the most recent three months, core inflation rose at a 2.8% annual rate.	在最近三个月中，核心通胀以2. 8%的年率上涨。


Household wealth is also increasing.	家庭财富也在增加。


The price of homes, the most important asset for US households, rose by 5% during the most recent 12 months.	住房是美国家庭最重要的资产，其价格在最近12个月上涨了5%。


The rising stock market has caused the broader measure of net worth to increase even faster.	股市走牛使得广义净财富指标上升更快。


Surveys of consumer attitudes point to strong positive feelings.	消费者态度调查表明人们的感觉非常积极。


The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index recently reached a 17-year high.	密歇根大学消费情绪指数最近达到了17年来的高点。


Likewise, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hit a 15-year high in February.	类似地，美国谘商会（Conference Board）消费者信心指数也在2月份达到了15年来的高点。


Manufacturing firms have increased output in each of the last six months.	制造业企业在过去六个月中的每个月都实现了产出增加。


Homebuilders are racing to keep up with demand, reflected in an increase of more than 6% in the number of new single-family houses in the past 12 months.	建筑商也在努力跟上需求，新独栋住房开工量在过去12个月中增加了6%多。


All of this suggests that real (inflation-adjusted) GDP will rise more quickly in 2017 than it did in the recent past.	所有这些都表明2017年真实（经通胀调整的）GDP增长将快于最近几年。


While volatile trade and inventory numbers have depressed the recent GDP figures, the more fundamental measure of final sales to private purchasers has been rising in real terms at an annual rate of about 2.5%.	尽管波动的贸易和库存数字抑制了最新GDP数据，但更基础的私人购买者终端销售数字（按真实值计算）以大约2. 5%的年率增长。


Overall GDP is likely to increase at a similar rate for 2017 as a whole.	2017年全年总GDP增长可能也在这一水平左右。


But, although the economy currently is healthy, it is also fragile.	但尽管当前经济相当健康，仍然比较脆弱。


The US has experienced a decade of excessively low interest rates, which have caused investors and lenders to seek higher yields by bidding up the prices of all types of assets and making risky loans.	美国经历了为期十年的极低利率时期，这导致投资者和贷款人通过太高所有类型的资产和进行高风险贷款活动寻找更高的收益率。


The danger is that overpriced assets and high-risk loans could lose value and cause an economic downturn.	其风险在于定价过高的资产和高风险贷款可能出现价值损失，引起经济衰退。


The price-earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is now nearly 70% above its historic average.	标准普尔500指数市盈率目前要比历史平均水平高出近70%。


A return of the price-earnings ratio to its historic average would cause share prices to decline by 40%, implying a loss of more than $9 trillion, an amount equal to nearly half of total GDP.	回归市盈率历史均值将意味着股价下跌40%，合9万亿美元损失，相当于总GDP的近一半。


Ten-year Treasury bonds now yield just 2.5%.	十年期国债收益率目前只有2.


With the current inflation rate of more than 2% and markets anticipating a similar inflation rate over the longer term (as measured by five-year five-year-forward inflation expectations), the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds should be above 4%.	5%。 在当前通胀率超过2%、市场预期在较长期（从五年远期通胀预期看）也将保持这一通胀率的情况下，十年期国债收益率应该高于4%。


A rise of the ten-year yield to 4% would reduce the value of those bonds substantially.	十年期收益率上升到4%将大大降低这些债券的价值。


Other long-term bonds – both government bonds and corporate bonds – would suffer similar declines.	其他长期债券——不论是政府债券还是公司债券——也将发生类似的跌幅。


Reaching for yield has also narrowed credit spreads between high-grade bonds and riskier domestic and emerging-market bonds.	寻找收益率也导致高等级债券和高风险国内和新兴市场债券利差缩小。


And commercial real-estate prices have been bid up to levels that are probably not sustainable.	商业不动产价格也已经被推高到可能无法持续的水平。


At the same time, banks and other lenders have extended loans bearing interest rates that do not reflect the riskiness of the borrowers.	与此同时，银行和其他贷款人发放了很多利率无法反映借款人风险程度的贷款。


And, because these covenant-light loans impose fewer conditions on the borrowers, they are more susceptible to default if economic conditions deteriorate.	而由于这些低条件（covenant-light）贷款对借款人的要求较低，因此，当经济环境恶化时，它们的违约率也会更高。


But a bad outcome is not inevitable.	但坏结果并非不可避免。


None of the risks I have described may materialize.	我所描述的风险都没有成为现实。


Interest rates may return to normal levels, and asset prices may gradually correct.	利率可能会回到正常水平，而资产价格可以逐渐纠正。


But there is a clear risk that a decade of excessively low interest rates will cause a collapse of asset prices and an economic downturn.	但一个显而易见的风险是十年来的过低利率将导致资产价格崩盘和经济衰退。


This will be a major challenge to the US Federal Reserve and the Trump administration in the year ahead.	这将是美联储和特朗普政府在今后一年中所面临的一个重大挑战。


America’s Bad Border Tax	美国的坏边境税


NEW YORK – The United States may be about to implement a border adjustment tax.	纽约—美国也许即将开始实施边境调节税。


The Republican Party, now in control of the legislative and executive branches, views a BAT – which would effectively subsidize US exporters, by giving them tax breaks, while penalizing US companies that import goods – as an important element of corporate-tax reform.	目前控制立法和行政机关的共和党将边境调节税视为公司税改革的重要要素。 边境调节税将以税收减免的形式有效地补贴美国出口商，惩罚进口商品的美国公司。


They claim that it would improve the US trade balance, while boosting domestic production, investment, and employment.	据说它能改善美国的贸易平衡，同时刺激国内生产、投资和就业。


They are wrong.	这是不对的。


The truth is that the Republicans’ plan is highly problematic.	真相是共和党的计划有很大问题。


Along with other proposed reforms, the BAT would turn the US corporate income tax into a tax on corporate cash flow (with border adjustment), implying far-reaching consequences for US companies’ competitiveness and profitability.	再加上其他改革方案，边境调节税将把美国公司税变成公司现金流税（带边境调节），这将给美国公司的竞争力和盈利能力带来深远影响。


Some sectors or firms – especially those that rely heavily on imports, such as US retailers – would face sharp increases in their tax liabilities; in some cases, these increases would be even greater than their pre-tax profits.	一些行业和企业——特别是与严重依靠进口的行业和企业，比如零售商——将面临税负的急剧增加； 在一些例子中，税负的增加将超过税前利润。


Meanwhile, sectors or firms that export, like those in manufacturing, would enjoy significant reductions in their tax burden.	与此同时，出口行业和企业，如制造业，税收负担将大量降低。


This divergence seems both unwarranted and unfair.	这一分化既无必要，也不公平。


The BAT would have other distributional implications, too.	边境调节税还将带来其他分配影响。


Studies indicate that it may hit consumers among the bottom 10% of income earners hardest.	研究表明，受其影响最大的将是收入最低的10%。


Yet it has been promoted as a way to offset the corporate-tax cuts that Republicans are also pushing – cuts that would ultimately benefit those at the top of the income distribution.	但它却被包装成抵消也是共和党提出的削减公司税的影响的应对措施——公司税的削减最终有利于收入分配的顶层。


Making matters worse, the BAT would not actually protect US firms from foreign competition.	更糟糕的是，边境调节税其实不能保护美国企业抵抗外国竞争。


Economic theory suggests that, in principle, a BAT could push up the value of the dollar by as much as the tax, thereby nullifying its effects on the relative competitiveness of imports and exports.	经济学理论认为，理论上边境调节税可以让美元价值升高等于税收的幅度，从而完全抵消其对进口和出口的相对竞争力的影响。


Moreover, the balance-sheet effects of dollar appreciation would be large.	此外，美元升值的资产负债表效应将相当大。


Because most foreign assets held by US investors are denominated in a foreign currency, the value of those assets could be reduced by several trillion dollars, in total.	由于大部分美国投资者持有的外国资产为外币计价，这些资产的价值总量也将蒸发数万亿美元。


Meanwhile, the highly indebted emerging economies would face ballooning dollar liabilities, which could cause financial distress and even crises.	与此同时，高负债的新兴经济体将面临急剧膨胀的美元债务，可能引发金融风险乃至危机。


Even if the US dollar appreciated less than the BAT, the pass-through from the tax on imports to domestic prices would imply a temporary but persistent rise in the inflation rate.	即使美元升值幅度小于边境调节税，税收从进口到国内价格的传导也将导致通货膨胀率暂时但持久的上升。


Some studies suggest that, in the BAT’s first year, the new tax could push up US inflation by 1%, or even more.	一些研究认为，在边境调节税的第一年，这项新税收将使美国通胀率升高1%甚至更多。


The US Federal Reserve may respond to such an increase by hiking its policy rate, a move that would ultimately lead to a rise in long-term interest rates and place further upward pressure on the dollar’s exchange rate.	美联储可能因此提高政策利率，而这最终又将导致长期利率的升高，给美元汇率造成进一步升值压力。


Yet another problem with the BAT is that it would create massive disruptions in the global supply chains that the US corporate sector has built over the last few decades.	但边境调节税的另外一个问题是它将给全球供应链造成大面积破坏，而全球供应链是过去几十年来美国公司部门赖以生存的基础。


By undermining companies’ capacity to maximize the efficiency of labor and capital allocation – the driving motivation behind offshoring – the BAT would produce large welfare costs for the US and the global economy.	边境调节税将破坏公司实现劳动力和资本配置效率最大化的能力——这是离岸化的主要动机——从而给美国和全球经济带来巨大的福利损失。


The final major problem with the BAT is that it violates World Trade Organization rules, which allow border adjustment only on indirect taxation, such as value-added tax, not on direct taxes, like those levied on corporate income.	边境调节税的最后一个大问题是它违反了世贸组织规则。 世贸组织规则规定边境调节只能用在间接税上，比如增值税，而不能用在直接税上，如公司所得税。


Given this, the WTO would probably rule the BAT illegal.	因此，世贸组织可能会裁定边境调节税为非法。


In that case, the US could face retaliatory measures worth up to $400 billion per year if it didn’t repeal the tax.	果真如此的话，如果美国一意孤行，将可能面临价值高达4,000亿美元的报复措施。


That would deal a serious blow to US and global GDP growth.	这将给美国和全球GDP增长造成严重打击。


So how likely is the US to enact the BAT?	那么美国实施边境调节税的可能性多大？


The proposal has the support of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, but a number of Senate Republicans are likely to vote against it.	该方案已经获得共和党占多数的众议院的支持，但许多共和党参议员可能投票反对。


Democrats in both houses of Congress are likely to vote against the entire proposed corporate-tax reform, including the BAT.	两院的民主党可能会投票反对整套公司税改革方案，包括边境调节税。


The executive branch is also split on the issue, with President Donald Trump’s more protectionist advisers supporting it and his more internationalist counselors opposing it.	行政机关也处于分歧状态，总统特朗普的较为保护主义的顾问支持边境调节税，较为国际主义的幕僚则反对。


Trump himself has sent mixed signals.	特朗普本人的态度模棱两可。


Disagreement over the BAT extends to business as well, with firms that export more than they import supporting it, and vice versa.	关于边境调节税的分歧也出现在商业界，出口多于进口的企业支持边境调节税，反之则反是。


As for the general public, low- and middle-income households should oppose the BAT, which would drive up prices of the now-cheap imported goods that these groups currently consume, though Trump’s blue-collar constituents, particularly those who work in manufacturing, may support the measure.	至于民众，中低收入家庭应该反对边境调节税，因为它将提高他们目前消费贷的非常便宜的进口商品的价格，尽管特朗普的蓝领票仓，特别是制造业工人，可能会支持边境调节税。


Ultimately, the case for the BAT is relatively weak – far weaker than the case against it.	说到底，支持边境调节税的理由较弱——远弱于反对理由。


While this may be enough to ensure that it doesn’t pass, there are strong protectionist forces in the US government pushing hard for it and similar policies.	尽管这有可能足以保证边境调节税无法获得通过，但美国政府中不乏强大的保护主义力量大力支持边境调节税和类似政策。


Even if the BAT is rejected, the risk of a damaging global trade war triggered by the Trump administration will continue to loom large.	即使边境调节税被拒绝，特朗普政府挑起破坏性的全球贸易战的风险依然很高。


Brazil’s Argentina Moment	巴西的阿根廷时刻


CAMBRIDGE – Brazil’s economy has been in free fall, a casualty of years of economic mismanagement and the vast corruption scandal that has engulfed the country’s political and business establishment – and which now threatens to bring down the second president in as many years.	坎布里奇—巴西经济出现了断崖式暴跌，这是多年来经济管理不当和大面积腐败丑闻的结果。 经济管理不当和大面积腐败丑闻吞噬了巴西的政治和商业建制派——现在眼看着快要将第二任总统拉下马了。


It may seem hard to focus on policy developments amid the political and economic turmoil, but the fact remains that Brazil must overcome fundamental challenges if it is to lay the groundwork for sustainable growth.	在政治和经济动荡时期，你很难专注于政策发展，但事实仍然是，巴西如果想要打好可是增长的基础，就必须克服基本挑战。


Few loom as large as the country’s fiscal woes.	而最大的基本挑战就是财政萎靡。


There is a strong argument that Brazil’s overstretched government finances have long held back the economy.	很容易认为，巴西过多的政府融资长期以来一直拖累的经济。


At 36%, the ratio of government spending to GDP is one of the highest among countries at a similar income level.	政府支出占GDP之比高达36%，是收入水平相近国家中最高的。


Years of fiscal laxity, mounting social security obligations, and low commodity prices have greatly magnified concerns – now compounded by the political crisis – about the government’s debt burden, which now stands at about 70% of GDP.	多年来的财政放纵导致巴西积累了巨大的社会安全负债，而大宗商品价格低迷又大大放大的问题——现在还要加上政治危机——债务现已达到GDP的70%左右，政府不堪重负。


The high interest rates required to finance the perilous fiscal position aggravates it further: higher interest payments account for much of the difference in spending between Brazil and peer countries.	财政状况告急导致融资利率高企，这反过来让财政状况更加危险：更高的利息支付是巴西和同类国家之间的利差的最大原因。


Against this background, Brazil’s National Congress, seeking to regain market confidence, approved an unprecedented constitutional amendment last December that imposes a ceiling on non-interest government expenditures, indexed to the previous year’s inflation rate, for a period of at least ten years.	在这样的背景下，巴西国民议会试图重振市场信心，在去年12月批准了前所未有的宪法修正案，为非利息政府支出设置了一个至少为期十年的上限，这个上限与前一年的通货膨胀率挂钩。


As long as it holds, the spending cap ensures that the size of the government (excluding interest payments) will shrink as a share of national income in every year that the economy experiences real growth.	如果能够坚持贯彻的话，这一支出上限将保证，只要国民收入能够取得真实增长，政府（除利息支出外的）占国民收入之比就将下降。


The International Monetary Fund enthusiastically endorsed it at the time, calling it a potential fiscal “game changer.”	国际货币基金组织（IMF）当时予以热烈支持，称之为可能的财政“局面改变因素”。


But is it?	但真的是这样吗？


Taken at face value, the economic justification for a spending cap is surprisingly weak.	乍一看，支出上限的经济原因非常弱。


Nothing in economic theory supports keeping real government spending constant over a period as long as a decade.	经济理论并不支持在长达十年的时间里保持真实政府支出不变。


As large as the size of Brazil’s government is, there is no magic ratio of spending to GDP that would ensure sustained growth.	规模大如巴西政府，根本不存在能够确保持续增长的政府支出-GDP之比的魔法数字。


Furthermore, the ceiling does not distinguish between government consumption and investment.	此外，支出上限不区分政府消费和政府投资。


And, in practice, it is likely to become more of a target than a ceiling, thereby removing room for countercyclical fiscal policy during a future downturn.	而在实践中，这可能成为除了支出上限之外的又一个目标，从而扼杀在未来衰退时期采取反周期财政政策的空间。


Even as a signal for market confidence, the idea of a cap on future spending has important weaknesses.	即使作为市场信心的信号，未来支出上限的概念也存在重大弱点。


As long as the economy contracts, a spending cap in fact does not impart much discipline; it does not force the government to shrink in step with the economy.	只要经济处于收缩状态，支出上限实际上并不会带来多少纪律； 它不能迫使政府和经济同步收缩。


Fiscal contraction is, in Augustinian fashion, deferred to the future – not exactly a confidence booster.	从阿根廷的传统看，财政收缩会被延迟到未来——从而起不到信心提振器的作用。


Indeed, the IMF, arguing that the spending cap is inadequate, has pushed for additional frontloaded fiscal adjustment.	事实上，IMF认为光有支出上限是不不够的，并敦促巴西采取更多的前置财政调整。


Perhaps desperate times call for desperate measures.	也许非常时期需要非常手段。


Brazil’s move resembles Argentina’s convertibility plan of 1991, which abolished all currency controls and pegged the Argentine peso to the US dollar.	巴西的计划效仿了1991年的阿根廷可兑换计划。 可兑换计划取消了所有货币管制，将阿根廷比索盯住美元。


Facing hyperinflation and a complete loss of market confidence, the government sought to buy credibility by placing monetary policy on automatic pilot.	面对恶性通胀和市场信心消失殆尽的局面，阿根廷政府试图通过让货币政策进入“自动驾驶”模式来获得信誉。


Argentina’s message to markets was, “look, we have no discretion over monetary policy.”	阿根廷释放出的市场信号是“看，这样我就管不了货币政策了。


Similarly, Brazil is telling markets it will shrink the government (as long as the economy is growing).	”类似地，巴西在告诉市场，它将收缩政府（只要经济在增长）。


In both cases, the promises are backed up by legal or even constitutional changes.	两者的承诺都有法律甚至宪法背书。


When credibility becomes the binding constraint on economic recovery, measures such as these may make sense – as long as they have the intended effect on market confidence.	当信誉成为经济复苏的最大瓶颈时，这样的措施是有意义的——只要它们对市场信心起到了预想的效果。


In fact, long-term interest rates on Brazilian government bonds have come down significantly since the amendment was passed (though it is hard to pinpoint the causal impact of the rule itself), and remain well below pre-amendment levels, despite the short-lived spike that followed the release of a recording of President Michel Temer allegedly authorizing illegal payments to a jailed congressman.	事实上，巴西政府债券的长期利率自修正案通过后大幅下降了（尽管很难厘清这个规则的因果效应），并且保持在远低于修正案前的水平，尽管在总统特梅尔被曝光授权非法拨款给身陷囹圄的议员后曾经一度短暂上升。


But as Argentina found out several years down the line, binding fiscal legislation can itself become a powerful constraint on economic recovery.	但正如阿根廷在随后几年中所发现的，约束性财政立法本身可能成为经济复苏的巨大障碍。


By the late 1990s, Argentina’s overwhelming problem had become an overvalued currency.	到20世纪90年代末，阿根廷的主要问题已是货币高估。


Successive governments stuck with the convertibility law for fear of losing credibility, but aggravated the economy’s competitiveness crisis as a result.	一届又一届政府因为害怕失去信誉而严守可兑换法，但这只能加剧阿根廷经济的竞争力危机。


Eventually, amid street riots and political mayhem, Argentina abandoned the currency peg in 2002.	最终，在街头暴动和政治骚乱中，阿根廷在2002年放弃了货币盯住。


Viewed with Argentina’s experience in mind, Brazil’s spending cap looks problematic – all the more so against a backdrop of political turmoil that is set to continue for the foreseeable future.	从阿根廷的经验看，巴西的支出上限看上去也很有问题——特别是考虑到可预见的未来政治动荡仍将持续的情况。


The cap will likely become even more politically controversial once Brazil recovers, as it will.	而一旦巴西开始复苏（迟早总会的），支出上限可能引起更大政治争议。


It is not hard to imagine the next administration – whenever it comes about – perceiving the cap as an obstacle to faster economic growth.	不难想象，下一任政府——不管来自哪里——将认定支出上限已是经济增长提速的障碍。


The cap’s defenders will sound unconvincing, because the economic case for it is weak in the absence of extreme credibility problems.	支出上限的捍卫者提出的理由将不再令人信服，因为其经济论据在信誉问题已不再极端的时候根本不堪一击。


Indeed, the cap will undermine itself to the extent that it succeeds in addressing the credibility issue.	事实上，支出上限将继续自我破坏，因为它成功地解决了信誉问题。


Brazil could become a prisoner of the policy’s totemic value as a commitment device, even as it outlives its usefulness as such.	巴西可能沦为政策作为承诺机制的图腾价值（即使它早就已经失去了这一用途）的囚徒。


The irony will not be lost on investors or Argentines: countries that can write a spending cap into the Constitution on short notice are also those where it could be just as easily removed.	投资者或阿根廷人不会忘记其中的讽刺之处：可以轻易地将支出上限写入宪法的国家，也可以同样轻易地将它移除。


There are good reasons why democracies sometimes tie their hands or delegate decision-making.	民主国家有时会自缚双手或委托决策，这有很好的理由。


Independent central banks or fiscal commissions, for example, can help governments overcome the temptation of short-term manipulation of the economy at longer-term cost.	比如，独立央行或财政委员会能帮助政府克服牺牲长期利益短期操纵经济的诱惑。


But Brazil’s spending cap does not look like a sustainable solution.	但巴西的支出上限看上去不像是可持续的解决方案。


While born of a real sense of fiscal urgency, the biggest risk is that it will eventually fuel political conflict around the ceiling itself, rather than foster deliberation about the difficult fiscal choices that must be made.	它确实诞生于财政紧迫感，但其最大的风险是它最终煽动围绕这一上限本身的政治冲突，而不能促进关于必须做出的艰难的财政选择的深思熟虑。


The Rise of Demotic Democracy in Europe	欧洲大众民主的崛起


LONDON – The shock of the British vote to leave the European Union has yet to sink in.	伦敦—英国投票脱离欧盟的冲击还有待消化。


Yet European leaders must steel themselves for what is to come.	但欧洲领导人必须做好准备迎接后果。


In fact, Brexit might be the initial tremor that triggers a tsunami of referenda in Europe in the coming years.	事实上，英国退出也许只是未来几年欧洲全民公决狂潮的序曲。


Across Europe, there are 47 insurgent parties turning politics on its head.	放眼欧洲，有47个反对党正在扰动政坛。


They are gaining control of the political agenda, shaping it according to their interests – and winning power in the process.	它们正在赢得对政治日程的控制，根据自己的利益来制定日程——并在此过程中赢得权力。


In one-third of EU member states, such parties are members of coalition governments, and their success has driven mainstream parties to adopt some of their positions.	在三分之一的欧盟成员国，这类政党已跻身执政联盟，它们的成功驱使主流政党接受了它们的一些立场。


Though these parties have very different roots, they all have one thing in common: all are trying to upend the foreign-policy consensus that has defined Europe for several decades.	这些政党根基各异，但有一点相同：它们都试图颠覆几十年来决定着欧洲的性质的外交政策共识。 它们是疑欧派；


They are Euroskeptic; they spurn NATO; they want to close their borders and stop free trade.	它们唾弃北约； 它们想关闭边境并停止自由贸易。


They are changing the face of politics, replacing traditional left-right battles with clashes pitting their own angry nativism against the cosmopolitanism of the elites they disdain.	它们正在改变政坛面貌，用自身的激愤本土主义对抗它们所鄙夷的精英的世界主义，以此取代传统左右之争。


These parties’ weapon of choice is the referendum, with which they can whip up popular support for their pet issues.	这些政党的选择武器便是全民公决，通过全民公决，它们可以激发对它们所钟爱的问题的群众支持。


According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, 32 referenda are being demanded in 18 countries across the EU.	据欧洲外交关系委员会数据，整个欧盟由18个国家存在32项全民公决要求。


Some, such as the Danish People’s Party, want to follow the United Kingdom’s lead and hold a vote on EU membership.	其中一些，如丹麦人民党（People’s Party），希望效仿英国榜样举行欧盟成员资格公决。


Others want to escape from the eurozone, block the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the United States, or restrict labor mobility.	也有一些希望退出欧元区，阻挠与美国的跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系（TTIP），或限制劳动力流动。


The EU’s refugee relocation scheme has proved to be particularly divisive.	欧盟难民安置机制是一个特别巨大的分歧因素。


Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has declared that he will hold a referendum on the proposed quotas.	匈牙利总理欧尔班已经宣布将举行全民公决来裁定配额方案。


And the Polish opposition party Kukiz ’15 has been collecting signatures for its own referendum on the issue.	波兰反对党Kukiz ’15正在为其自身的该问题全民公决征集签名。


Handing power back to the masses through direct democracy may well be these parties’ most revolutionary proposition.	通过直接民主将权力还给群众也许是这些政党最具革命性的计划。


Indeed, it reflects an understanding of the frustrations that have driven a global wave of popular protests in recent years – protests that, in the Arab world, sparked actual revolutions.	事实上，这反映出人们理解最近几年推动全球群众反抗浪潮的不满，在阿拉伯世界，这些反抗引发了真正的革命。


The same spirit of protest that drove, say, Spaniards, Greeks, and New Yorkers to take to the streets – with different demands, to be sure – is fueling support for these new referenda and the insurgent parties that are bringing them about.	同样的反抗精神驱使（比如）西班牙人、希腊人和纽约人走上街头——当然，要求有所不同——它正在助长对这些新全民公决以及提出公决的新兴政党的支持。


This is a nightmare not only for established parties, but also for democratic governance.	这是一场噩梦，不但对老牌政党是如此，对民主治理也是如此。


As California’s experience with referenda has shown, the public will often vote for contradictory things – for example, lower taxes and more welfare programs, or environmental protection and cheaper gas.	加利福尼亚州的全民公决经验表明，公众常常会支持互相矛盾的东西——比如降低税收和增加福利项目； 或环境保护和更加廉价的汽油。


But for the EU, this dynamic is exponentially more challenging; indeed, it overturns the EU’s foundations.	但对欧盟来说，这一动态的挑战性要显著得多； 事实上，这颠覆了欧盟的根基。


The EU is, after all, the ultimate expression of representative democracy.	毕竟，欧盟是代议制民主的终极表达。


It is an enlightened body that places at its core liberal values such as individual rights, the protection of minorities, and a market-based economy.	它是一个开明机构，将个体权利、少数群体保护和市场经济作为其核心自由价值。


But the layers of representation on which the EU relies have created the sense that a kind of “Über-elite” is running things, far removed from ordinary citizens.	带欧盟所依赖的代表的层次造成了一种感觉，即某种“超精英”在主宰，远远超然于普通民众之上。


This has given nationalist parties the perfect target for their anti-EU campaigns.	这给了民族主义政党的反欧盟活动以完美的目标。


Add to that fear mongering about issues like immigration and trade, and their ability to attract frustrated or anxious voters is strong.	此外，恐慌制造了移民和贸易等问题，这些问题吸引沮丧或焦虑选民的力量十分强大。


Two visions of Europe – the diplomatic and the demotic – are now facing off against each other.	两个版本的欧洲——外交（diplomatic）和大众（demotic）——正在针锋相对。


The diplomatic Europe, incarnated by EU founding father Jean Monnet, took big, sensitive questions out of the sphere of popular politics and reduced them to manageable technical issues that diplomats could address through bureaucratic compromises behind closed doors.	外交的欧洲由欧盟之父让·莫内提出，它将敏感的大问题拿到群众政治范围之外，将它们缩小为可管理的技术性问题，外交官能够通过闭门商谈的官僚妥协解决。


The demotic Europe, exemplified by the UK Independence Party, which helped spearhead Brexit, is like Monnet in reverse, taking diplomatic compromises like the TTIP or the association agreement with Ukraine, and intentionally politicizing them.	大众欧洲的代表是领衔英国退出运动的英国独立党（Independence Party），它们就像莫内的反面，抓住TTIP或乌克兰入盟协定等外交妥协，将它们内部政治化。


Whereas diplomatic Europe is about finding reconciliation, demotic Europe is about polarization.	外交的欧洲事关寻找妥协，而大众的欧洲事关极端化。


Diplomacy is win-win; direct democracy is zero-sum.	外交是双赢，直接民主是零和。


Diplomacy tries to lower the temperature; the demotic paradigm raises it.	外交试图降低温度； 大众范式则提高温度。


Diplomats can work with one another; referenda are binary and fixed, leaving none of the political wiggle room and scope for creative compromise needed to resolve political problems.	外交官可以彼此合作，全民公决则是两分和固定的，没有政治回旋余地和解决政治问题所需要的创造性妥协的空间。


In demotic Europe, solidarity is impossible.	在大众的欧洲，凝聚力无从谈起。


Europe’s shift away from diplomacy began more than a decade ago, when the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe was rejected in popular referenda in France and the Netherlands.	欧洲背离外交始于十多年前，建立欧洲宪法的条约被法国和荷兰的群众公决所拒绝。


That outcome may have put the EU out of the treaty-making business altogether, meaning that hopes of future integration may well be dashed.	这一结果可能让欧盟彻底告别了条约签订，这意味着未来一体化的希望大为渺茫。


But, in the wake of Brexit, future integration is not Europe’s biggest concern. Instead, it must contend with the increasingly powerful forces undermining the integration that has been achieved, attempting to push Europe backward.	但是，在英国退出的情况下，未来一体化已不再是欧洲最大的担忧，相反，欧盟必须与日益强大的破坏既有一体化成就、试图让欧洲开倒车的力量角力。


Of course, one need only recall what was there before the EU to realize just how dangerous this path may be.	当然，你只要回忆一下欧盟成立之前的情况，就可以意识到这条路有多危险。


In this new era of “vetocracy” in Europe, the diplomacy that underpinned the creation of the enlightened and forward-looking European project cannot function, leaving the EU ungovernable.	在新的“否决政体”时代的欧洲，作为开明前瞻的欧洲工程创立之基的外交不可能起作用，这让欧盟变得不可治理。


Now that the Euroskeptics have gotten their way in the UK, vetocracy will become stronger than ever.	疑欧派已经在英国得逞，否决政体将因此变得更加强大。


Direct votes on issues like trade rules or immigration policy will gut Europe’s representative democracy, just as direct votes on membership threaten to gut the EU itself.	在贸易规则或移民政策等问题上进行直接投票将伤及欧洲代议制民主，正如在成员资格问题上直接投票伤及欧盟本身。


In a popular novel by the Nobel laureate José Saramago, the Iberian Peninsula breaks off from the European mainland and drifts away.	诺贝尔文学奖得主萨拉马戈（José Saramago）写过一篇流行的小说，在这篇小说中，伊比利亚半岛脱离欧洲大陆漂走了。


With a tsunami of plebiscites bearing down on the continent, this may turn out to be a prescient metaphor.	随着全民公决的海啸席卷欧洲，也许这将成为先见之明。


The Economic Consequences of Brexit	英国退出欧盟的经济后果


LONDON – Those campaigning for Britain to exit the European Union claim that doing so would make their country both freer and richer.	发自伦敦——那些力争英国退出欧盟的人声称，此举会令他们的国家都更自由也更富裕。


They assert that after “Brexit”, the UK could quickly negotiate a bespoke agreement with the EU that offers all the benefits of free trade without the costs of EU membership; strike better trade deals with other countries; and reap huge benefits from scrapping burdensome EU regulations.	他们断言脱盟之后，英国可能很快与欧盟谈妥一项专属协议，可以在享受所自由贸易优势的同时摒除作为欧盟成员国所产生的成本； 与其他国家签订更有利的贸易协定；


But this is a delusion.	并获得摆脱繁琐欧盟法规所产生的巨大好处。 但这，仅仅是种错觉。


In fact, Brexit would entail big economic costs for Britain.	事实上，脱盟将为英国带来巨大的经济成本。


The uncertainty and disruption of drawn-out and doubtless acrimonious divorce proceedings would depress investment and growth.	旷日持久且必定严苛的分离程序所导致的不确定性和破坏会抑制投资和增长。


Permanent separation would reduce trade, foreign investment, and migration, hurting competition, productivity growth, and living standards.	永久分离会减少贸易，外商投资和人口迁移，从而对竞争力，生产力增长和生活水平造成负面影响。


And “independence” would deprive Britain of influence over future EU reforms – notably, the completion of the single market in services – from which it would benefit.	此外“独立”还将剥夺英国对未来欧盟改革——包括单一服务业市场的最终构建——的影响力，这些都是英国本该从中受益的改革。