When French President Nicolas Sarkozy, himself the son of immigrants, says that there are too many foreigners in France, he drives young men like Merah farther into a corner.	当总统萨科齐这样的移民后代都认为法国充斥着外国人，他也随之把默拉这样的年轻人逼到了墙角。


A tiny minority of such men might lash out in desperation.	这些人中的极少数都因绝望而走上了邪路。


The other explanation, favored by Sarkozy, takes Merah at his word.	另一个解释则是萨科齐所喜欢的，用默拉自己的言论来说明一切。


He said that he was protesting French military operations in Muslim countries and avenging the killing of Palestinian children.	默拉说他是为了抗议法国在穆斯林国家的军事行动，还要为被杀害的巴勒斯坦儿童报仇。


He wanted to bring down the French state as an Islamic holy warrior.	他希望自己化身为圣战战士打垮法国。


He was inspired by al-Qaeda.	他深受基地组织的鼓舞。


So why not believe him?	既然人家都这样说了，凭什么不相信他？


Hence Sarkozy’s decision to arrest other Muslim men suspected of Islamic extremism and bar certain imams from attending a religious conference in France.	于是萨科齐果断下令逮捕一批伊斯兰原教旨主义嫌疑人，并点名禁止几个伊玛目参加法国境内的一场宗教会议。


Those who view Islamic extremism as the problem also tend to hold up young killers like Merah as examples of failed integration.	那些将伊斯兰极端主义视为问题根源的人也倾向于把默拉这样的凶手视为社会融合失败的产物。


They never became sufficiently French. Immigrants must be forced to share “Western values.”	除非能迫使这些移民接受“西方价值观”，否则他们永远不能成为真正的“法国人”。


Although no one would argue that Anders Breivik is insufficiently Norwegian, he, too, could be taken at his word.	但很显然没人能说安德斯·布雷维克不是一个真正的挪威人，不过人们也可以从他的言论中找到证据。


The rhetoric of xenophobic demagogues appears to have convinced him that he had to kill the children of the social-democratic elites in order to protect Western civilization against the dangers of multiculturalism and Islam.	排外主义煽动者的说辞似乎使他确信必须杀掉那些社会民主派精英的孩子，因为只有这样才能在文化多元主义和伊斯兰教威胁下保卫西方文明。


His murders were the extreme result of dangerous ideas.	他的杀戮就是这些危险念头的极端恶果。


Neither explanation is entirely wrong.	两个解释都有一定的道理。


Many young Muslims feel unwanted in their countries of birth, and extreme language, whether used by Islamists or their opponents, helps to create an atmosphere conducive to violence.	许多穆斯林青年在自己出生的国度饱受歧视，而那些极端言论，不管是出自伊斯兰极端主义者还是其对手，都为最终的暴力创造了滋生的土壤。


But both Ramadan and Sarkozy are too simplistic, for they reduce extraordinary murders to single explanations.	但无论是拉玛丹还萨科齐都有点过于简单化了，因为他们想用单一的原因来解释这些极端凶手。


Even when they are faced with rejection, most young Muslim men do not become mass murderers.	即便面对社会的排斥，大多数年轻穆斯林也没有变成杀手。


Merah is too anomalous to serve as a typical example of anything, including racial or religious discrimination.	你根本不可能用某个典型概念来解释默拉这个人，无论是种族或者还是宗教歧视。


Far from being a religious fanatic, Merah grew up as a petty criminal with no interest in religion.	此外默拉根本算不上是一名宗教狂热分子，只是一个对宗教毫无兴趣的小混混而已。


The appeal of Islamist extremism may have been its glorification of violence more than any religious content.	而相对于其他宗教来说，伊斯兰原教旨主义的吸引力大概在于能将暴力行为赋予某种荣誉感。


He enjoyed watching jihadist videos of beheadings.	默拉喜欢看那些圣战分子杀人斩首的视频。


He also tried to join the French army and the Foreign Legion.	他还尝试加入法军和法国外籍军团，却因为犯罪记录而遭弃用。


The army turned him down because of his criminal record. If the French wouldn’t have him, he would join the holy warriors: anything to give him a sense of power and an excuse to indulge his violent impulses.	如果法国人没有招募他，他就会加入圣战组织：在哪都不重要，只要能让他觉得自己手握权力，并找到一个纵容其暴力冲动的理由就行了。


Many young men are drawn to the fantasy of violence; far fewer feel the need to act it out.	许多年轻人都会沉迷于宣泄暴力的幻想； 但只有很少一部份人会付诸行动。


Ideology can serve as an excuse or justification, but it is rarely the main source of individual acts of brutality.	意识形态可以成为一个借口或者是理由，但却很少成为人们行凶的主要成因。


Murder sprees are more often than not a form of personal revenge – losers wishing to blow up the world around them, because they feel humiliated or rejected, whether socially, professionally, or sexually.	杀人狂往往都是某种形式的个人复仇——这些失意者们希望让附近的世界领教一下自己的厉害，因为他们感到——不管是在社会生活，工作中还是性方面——被侮辱或者被排斥了。


Sometimes, the killers appear to lack any excuse at all, as in the case of Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, who in 1999 shot 12 fellow-students and a teacher at their high school in Columbine, Colorado.	有时凶手的行为似乎没有任何理由，正如1999年科罗拉多州科隆比纳高中枪击案中杀害12名同学和一位老师的埃里克·哈里斯（Eric Harris）和迪兰·克雷布（Dylan Klebold）那样。


In that case, people blamed the sadistic video games and movies that the killers had been watching.	人们指责是那些宣扬暴力虐杀的电脑游戏和电影影响了凶手的行为。


Still, most enthusiasts of this type of entertainment do not actually go out and kill people.	但绝大多数这类娱乐产品的爱好者都不会动手杀人。


Breivik had fantasies of being a knight fighting the enemies of the West. Merah imagined that he was a jihadi.	布雷维克幻想成为一名奋勇捍卫西方的骑士，默拉自认是一个圣战者，而谁又知道科隆比纳枪击案的凶手们心里是怎么想的呢？


Who knows what the Columbine killers thought they were doing. But the reasons why they killed lie within them, and cannot be principally attributed to the entertainment or other materials that they consumed.	但这些引发杀戮的理由都与他们自身有关，不能把主要责任推到他们消费的娱乐产品或者其他事物上面。


Banning such materials has an aesthetic appeal, to be sure, and public figures who preach violence should always be condemned.	当然，对这类事物的查禁都有冠冕堂皇的理由，而那些鼓吹暴力的公众人物也应受到谴责。


Hate speech and violent ideology are not irrelevant.	宣扬仇恨的言论和暴力意识形态并不是毫不相关的。


But to make too much of them in cases such as those of Merah or Breivik can be misleading.	但在默拉或者布雷维克的案件中过度归咎于这些也是误导性的。


Censorship is unlikely to solve the problem.	审查制度也不太可能解决这个问题。


Banning Hitler’s Mein Kampf or forbidding the display of Nazi symbols has not stopped neo-Nazis in Germany from murdering immigrants.	查禁希特勒的《我的奋斗》一书或者不准展示纳粹标志都未能制止新纳粹主义者杀戮外国移民的行为。


Suppressing violent pornography will not get rid of rapists or high-school killers.	打击暴力色情出版物也无法遏制强奸犯和校园杀手的出现。


Preventing demagogues from ranting about Muslims or multi-culturalists will not deter a future Anders Breivik.	防止政治煽动家攻击穆斯林或者多文化主义者无法阻止下一个安德斯·布雷维克行凶。


And barring radical imams from entering France won’t stop another Merah from going on a murderous rampage.	不允许极端主义伊玛目进入法国也不能保证下一个默拉不会大开杀戒。


In fact, to compare Merah’s savage deeds to the killings of September 11, 2001, as Sarkozy has done, is to give the killer too much credit.	事实上，像萨科齐那样把默拉的暴行比作“9·11”袭击无疑是帮凶手带上了不相称的高帽。


There is no evidence that he is part of any organized group, or in the vanguard of a revolutionary movement.	没有证据表明他隶属于任何组织或是某种革命运动的先锋。


Using his case to stoke fear of an Islamic threat to society might make electoral sense for Sarkozy.	利用这起事件来煽动伊斯兰恐慌可能对萨科齐的选举有利。


But provoking fear is seldom the best recipe for avoiding further violence. On the contrary, it is more likely to fuel it.	但挑拨恐惧往往不是防止暴力再次发生的最佳良方，相反更可能会火上浇油。


ASEAN and the Rohingya Crisis	东盟和罗兴亚危机


DHAKA – The worsening plight of Muslim Rohingya communities in Myanmar’s Rakhine state could soon imperil the country’s government, as well as the reputation of its leader, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.	达卡—缅甸若开邦罗兴亚穆斯林社区处境的日益恶化可能很快将威胁到缅甸政府及其领导人、诺贝尔和平奖得主昂山素季的名声。


The crisis has been escalating since last October, when Myanmar’s military launched an offensive in which 130 Rohingya were killed, and dozens of their buildings were torched.	这场危机从去年10月开始升级，缅甸军方对罗兴亚社区发动袭击，130名罗兴亚人被杀，数十座建筑被毁。


At the time, the military’s leaders claimed that the attack was part of an effort to locate unidentified insurgents who were thought to be responsible for the slayings on October 9 of nine policemen at three border posts in the district of Maungdaw.	当时，军方领导人宣布这次袭击是定位身份不明的叛乱分子的行动的一部分，据称这些叛乱分子10月9日在孟都县的三个边防站杀害了九名警察。


According to a Human Rights Watch analysis of satellite images, still more Rohingya villages were destroyed over the course of nine days in November, bringing the number of buildings razed to 1,250; meanwhile, 30,000 people have reportedly been displaced.	据人权观察组织对卫星图像的分析，在11月的九天时间里，有更多的罗兴亚村庄被毁，被毁建筑数量达到了1,250座； 与此同时，30,000人报告失踪。


The United Nations considers the stateless Rohingya to be among the world’s most persecuted minorities.	联合国认为无国籍的罗兴亚人是全世界受迫害最严重的少数群体之一。


Now, other countries in an otherwise stable region are becoming embroiled in the crisis; indeed, countries such as Bangladesh, Thailand, and Indonesia are increasingly feeling the spillover effects, as Rohingya seek asylum within their borders.	如今，这个原本稳定的地区的其他国家也卷入了这场危机； 事实上，随着罗兴亚人入境寻求庇护，孟加拉国、泰国和印尼等国家日益感受到溢出效应。


The persecution of the Rohingya can no longer be described as merely a domestic problem for Myanmar.	对罗兴亚人的迫害不能再认为是缅甸的内政。


ASEAN has been criticized for approaching the Rohingya issue too cautiously, and for failing to recognize that the ongoing conflict could divide the bloc along ethno-religious lines.	东盟对罗兴亚问题的批评过于谨慎，并且没有认识到这个未了的冲突可能造成该地区因为民族-宗教问题而分裂。


The region’s population is 60% Muslim, 18% Buddhist, and 17% Christian; continued discrimination against the Rohingya already has become a rallying cry for sympathetic Islamic extremist groups in countries that provide asylum.	该地区人口中有60%是穆斯林，18%是佛教徒，17%是基督教徒，继续歧视罗兴亚人已经引起提供庇护的国家的同情的伊斯兰极端组织的大声疾呼。


This is an especially grave risk for Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia.	这可能给印尼等穆斯林占多数的国家造成巨大的风险。


The fleeing Rohingya live in deplorable conditions when they reach host countries, and they have been involved in chronic skirmishes with security forces.	逃亡的罗兴亚人在抵达东道国时境况非常糟糕，并且长期与安全部队发生小摩擦。


Facing constant struggle and ongoing food shortages, the Rohingya are prime targets for terrorist recruiting.	罗兴亚人一直面临生存威胁和食物短缺，是恐怖分子招兵买马的主要目标。


Not surprisingly, Islamic extremist groups have already posted online videos calling for jihad against Myanmar; and Indonesian authorities recently arrested two militants who were allegedly plotting an attack on Myanmar’s embassy in Jakarta.	毫不奇怪，伊斯兰极端组织发布在线视频号召对缅甸发动圣战，印尼当局最近逮捕了两位被控策划缅甸驻雅加达大使馆袭击的军人。


As the Rohingya crisis deepens, more regional and international extremist groups will undoubtedly use it as a convenient tool to gain sympathy, recruit new members, and raise funds.	随着罗兴亚危机的神话，更多地区和国际极端组织必然会利用罗兴亚人作为获得同情、招募新成员和筹集资金的方便工具。


ASEAN leaders must formulate an effective diplomatic solution to the crisis to prevent it from fueling more extremism in the region and disrupting trade and people’s livelihoods.	东盟领导人必须制定有效的外交方案解决这场危机，阻止其助长地区极端组织和破坏贸易和人民的生活。


The much-heralded “ASEAN Way,” whereby member states adhere to quiet diplomacy and principled non-intervention, served the bloc well on the economic front in its first decades of existence.	耳熟能详的“东盟方法”——成员国坚守沉默外交和不干预原则——在其发挥作用的前三十年里获得了卓著的经济成效。


But as international criticism mounts, the ineffectiveness of a “see no evil, hear no evil” strategy for addressing internal issues should now be obvious.	但如国际批评所言，这一“以恶小而不为”的策略在解决内部问题方面的低效如今已经显而易见。


Malaysia seems to recognize this.	马来西亚似乎认识到了这一点。


At the recent ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Yangon, it called for the coordination of humanitarian aid and an investigation into alleged atrocities committed against Rohingya.	在最近的仰光东盟外交部长会议上，马来西亚呼吁进行人道援助合作并调查针对罗兴亚人的暴行。


Following the meeting, Myanmar showed willingness to grant humanitarian access and to keep the ASEAN members informed.	会议后，缅甸表示愿意接受人道援助并知会东盟成员国。


It is time for ASEAN to heed this call, shifting its mode of operation, so that mature democracies such as Singapore and Malaysia – which rank high in human-development indices – can become responsible global leaders, and expand their humanitarian problem-solving capacities.	东盟应该回应这一呼吁，改变其运行模式，以使新加坡和马来西亚的成熟的民主国家——它们在人类发展指数上位居前列——能够成为负责任的全球领导者，并加强人道主义问题解决能力。


ASEAN needs to grow into a strong, politically accountable, European Union-style community.	东盟需要成长为强大的、政治上可问责的欧盟式的共同体。


To do that, it must find peaceful yet effective ways to mitigate what is now a regional humanitarian crisis.	要想实现这一点，它必须找到和平但有效的方法遏制当前的地区人道主义危机。


According to unofficial estimates, there could now be as many as 500,000 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh alone.	据非官方统计数据，目前光是孟加拉国就有可能有多大500,000罗兴亚难民。


Since the latest military intervention, another 20,000 Rohingya have arrived.	自最近的军事干预以来，又有20,000罗兴亚人到达。


This puts Bangladesh, which already struggles to provide basic services to its own 170 million citizens, in an extremely difficult position.	这导致为其1. 7亿公民提供基本服务尚捉襟见肘的孟加拉国处于非常被动的境地。


Already, Myanmar’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs has visited Dhaka for talks.	目前，缅甸外交部副部长已经访问达卡讨论这一问题。


And a three-member team of Myanmar’s Advisory Commission on Rakhine State visited the Rohingya slums in Bangladesh’s coastal area bordering Rakhine state.	缅甸若开邦顾问委员会的一个三人团队也访问了与若开邦相邻的孟加拉国沿海地区的罗兴亚贫民窟。


ASEAN could help here.	东盟可以在这方面提供帮助。


Member states such as Singapore enjoy friendly relations with both Myanmar and Bangladesh, and thus could provide a platform for the two countries to come together and arrive at permanent solutions to a decades-old problem.	新加坡等东盟成员国与缅甸和孟加拉国都有良好的关系，因此可以为两国提供一个平台进行一起为这个维持了几十年的问题提供一个永久性解决方案。


But first ASEAN must decide to pull its political weight, and to expend some of its political capital, to bring about a just, long-term settlement.	但是，首先东盟必须下定决心动用其政治影响力，并付出一定的政治资本来制定一个公正的长期和解方案。


If it does, it can serve as an honest broker between Myanmar, Bangladesh, and, most importantly, representatives of the Rohingya community, who have suffered persecution for long enough.	实现了这一点，它就能成为在缅甸、孟加拉国，以及最重要的，长期饱受迫害的罗兴亚社区代表之间的诚实可靠的牵线人。


Five Steps to Peace in Myanmar	缅甸和平五步走


CANBERRA – The humanitarian crisis afflicting Myanmar’s Muslim Rohingya has damaged the country’s political stability and shattered its image as a country moving toward democracy.	堪培拉——困扰缅甸穆斯林罗兴亚人的人道主义危机已经损害了该国的政治稳定并破坏了该国朝民主政体过渡的形象。


Moreover, it has tarnished the reputation of the government’s de facto leader, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi; called into question the crisis-management credentials of ASEAN and the United Nations; and made a mockery of international institutions for conflict prevention.	不仅如此，此次危机还损害了政府事实上的领导人，诺贝尔和平奖获得者昂山素季的声誉； 质疑了东盟和联合国的危机管理资格，并嘲笑了防止冲突发生的国际体系。


And yet, for all the woe, a resolution remains possible; to achieve it, five steps must be taken without delay.	但尽管局势如此痛苦，仍然保留着和平解决的生机； 要想实现这个目标，必须立即实行五步走政策。


First and foremost, the killings and atrocities must stop, which will be as difficult as it is necessary.	首先必须停止暴行和杀戮，这项任务很难完成但却绝对必需。


Myanmar’s military has engaged in a sustained campaign of ethnic cleansing, with the primary goal of expelling the Rohingya from the country.	缅甸军方已经开展了持续的种族清洗运动，其主要目标是将罗兴亚人从国内驱逐出去。


Although these actions cannot be undone, further bloodshed and targeted evictions can and should cease.	尽管这些行动造成的恶果无法消失，但进一步流血和针对性的驱逐行动可以而且必须停止。


For that to happen, however, Rohingya extremists must be contained.	但要想达到这一目的，罗兴亚极端分子必须得到控制。


Contrary to the prevailing narrative in the West, the Myanmar military was provoked, after insurgents staged a series of attacks on police and army posts in August.	与西方流行的事件描述截然相反，事情的真相是在叛乱分子8月对警方和军方发动一系列袭击活动后，缅甸的军方被彻底激怒。


Exploiting a history of armed clashes between Buddhists and Muslims in Rakhine State, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has assumed leadership of an increasingly violent campaign.	阿拉贡罗兴亚救世军（ARSA）利用若开邦佛教徒和穆斯林长期以来的武装冲突史已经在越来越多的暴力活动中扮演了领导角色。


The problem, of course, has been the disproportionate use of force by the military, which retaliated against ARSA strikes by launching a scorched-earth campaign that has killed as many as 3,000.	当然，问题是军方一直以来不合理地使用武力对阿拉贡罗兴亚救世军发起报复性袭击，军方实行的焦土政策已经导致多达3000人丧生。


Soldiers have burned entire Rohingya villages, engaged in sexual violence, destroyed mosques, and provoked mass displacement.	士兵们烧毁了整座罗兴亚村庄、 从事性暴力活动、摧毁清真寺并造成大量罗兴亚人无家可归。


The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, says it is “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing,” while UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called the crisis “catastrophic.”	联合国人权事务高级专员扎伊德·拉阿德·侯赛因表示这是“种族清洗行为教科书般的范例，”而联合国秘书长 安东尼奥·古特雷斯也用“灾难”一词来形容这场危机。


Suu Kyi, meanwhile, has failed to exercise any moral authority, sounding instead like an apologist when she insists that “a huge iceberg of misinformation” is “promoting the interest of the terrorists.”	与此同时，昂山素季未能行使任何道德权威，她坚持认为“虚假消息的巨型冰山”正在“保护恐怖分子利益”的观点就像军方的辩护律师。


She is, no doubt, sandwiched between an autonomous military that retains complete control over the country’s security services, and a Buddhist-majority population with deeply rooted anti-Muslim prejudices.	勿庸置疑，她夹在对国家安全拥有完全控制力的自治军队和抱有根深蒂固的反穆斯林偏见的佛教多数人口之间。


But, that predicament does not excuse her failure to condemn what is happening under her watch.	但上述困境并不能解释她未能谴责其治下混乱局势的行为。


To be sure, Suu Kyi’s government resents the idealistic but partisan statements often issued by Western leaders and UN representatives.	可以肯定，素季政府不满于西方领袖和联合国代表经常发表的理想主义但却明显具有偏袒意味的声明。


Rohingya extremists have long-established links with foreign jihadists, including those of the Islamic State.	罗兴亚极端分子早就与外国圣战者（其中也包括伊斯兰国恐怖分子）之间建立了千丝万缕的联系。


Complicating the military’s position, ARSA is, according to the International Crisis Group, commanded by Saudi-based insurgents with extensive experience in guerrilla warfare.	根据国际危机组织的说法，阿拉贡罗兴亚救世军由具有丰富游击战争经验的沙特叛乱分子所指挥的现状进一步恶化了军方的态度。


Few Westerners grasp the challenges faced by decision-makers in developing countries confronting extremism from insurgents and terrorists.	没有多少西方人能真正了解发展中国家决策者在应对叛乱和恐怖分子的极端主义挑战时所需要面对的难题。


It is precisely these concerns that have made it difficult for Myanmar to break the cycle of violence.	缅甸很难打破暴力循环，恰恰是因为存在这些忧虑。


Bangladesh and India have refused to resettle Rohingya refugees permanently, largely because they fear that jihadists could be among them.	孟加拉和印度已经拒绝接纳罗兴亚难民永久定居，主要是因为这两个国家担心难民中可能混入了圣战分子。


Indian intelligence agencies have linked ARSA to the Pakistani jihadist group Lashkar-e-Taiba.	印度情报机构将阿拉贡罗兴亚救世军与巴基斯坦圣战组织虔诚军联系在一起。


Similarly, China’s government has supported Myanmar’s efforts to protect its national security.	同样，中国政府一直支持缅甸维护国家安全的努力。


As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China is investing $7.3 billion in a port project in Rakhine, which may lead China to block any attempt in the UN Security Council to censure Myanmar for its actions.	中国的一带一路计划正在若开邦投资建设一个73亿美元的港口项目，中国可能因此在联合国安理会上阻止任何谴责缅甸政府行为的企图。


This tangled web of interests, coupled with the government’s failure, means that responsibility for protecting all of Myanmar’s people now falls to ASEAN or the UN.	这样一张混乱的利益网再加上政府的应对失策，意味着保护所有缅甸民众的责任如今落在了东盟和联合国身上。


Once hostilities cease, the second step toward ensuring long-term peace will be the repatriation of refugees, which could prove to be a logistical nightmare.	一旦敌对行动停止，难民遣返将是确保长期和平的第二步，而事实很可能证明遣返难民将成为一场后勤保障方面的噩梦。


According to UN figures, at the end of September some 700,000 Rohingya refugees had crossed into Bangladesh, with more than half arriving since late August.	按照联合国统计数据，截至9月底已经有约70万名罗兴亚难民越境进入到孟加拉境内，其中仅8月下旬抵达的难民就超过半数。


And Myanmar’s military has mined the border with Bangladesh to stop them from returning.	而缅甸军方已经在孟缅边界埋设地雷，以阻止这些难民返回缅甸境内。


Assuming that the issues of violence and refugees can be addressed, Myanmar must grant international humanitarian access to the affected regions.	假设暴力和难民问题可以解决，缅甸必须批准向受影响地区提供国际人道主义援助。


ASEAN, which demonstrated its capabilities in the wake of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, is well positioned to take the lead in shaping a regional response.	东盟在2008年纳尔吉斯旋风开始时就充分展现了它在这方面的能力，它现在完全可以在制定地区对策时发挥领导作用。


ASEAN could also coordinate with the UN in managing emergency personnel.	东盟还可以与联合国协调开展针对应急人员的管理工作。


The fourth step is to hold enablers of the atrocities accountable.	第四步是追究暴行制造者的责任。


Myanmar’s government must undertake – or permit ASEAN or the UN to do so on its behalf – an independent and impartial investigation into the killings, identify the perpetrators, and subject them to transparent and credible prosecution.	缅甸政府必须承担起这项责任——或允许东盟或联合国代表其完成这项任务——对杀戮事件展开独立和公正的调查、找出肇事者、并对他们提出透明及可信的起诉。


If this cannot be done domestically, the matter must be referred to the International Criminal Court.	如果无法在国内做到这一点，那么缅甸应当委托国际刑事法院来完成这项任务。


Finally, the government that Suu Kyi leads must repeal or amend all discriminatory laws and end official anti-Rohingya discrimination.	最后，素季所领导的政府必须废除或修改所有歧视性法律，彻底结束官方歧视罗兴亚人的历史。


With 1.1 million members, the Rohingya are one of the world’s largest stateless ethnic groups.	有110万人口的罗兴亚人是全世界最大的无国籍民族之一。


Most came to Myanmar as part of the expansion of the British Empire, after the Burmese king was defeated in 1826, but are still considered to be illegal Bengali immigrants.	罗兴亚人在1826年缅甸国王战败后随大英帝国的扩张而进入缅甸境内，但时至今日，仍然被视为非法的孟加拉移民。


The 1982 citizenship law did not recognize them as one of the country’s 135 ethnic groups, and they have severely limited access to health care, education, and employment, in addition to facing restrictions on their freedom of movement.	1982年公民法并未承认他们作为该国135个少数民族之一的地位，而他们在无法自由行动的同时，也几乎无法得到医疗、教育和就业等方面的服务。


Myanmar’s democratic transition remains fragile, with civil-military relations, poverty, economic growth, and governance competing for attention.	缅甸的民主过渡进程仍然非常脆弱，有限的资源根本无法覆盖军民关系、贫困、经济增长和政府治理。


But the cessation of hostilities and resolution of the Rohingya crisis must take precedence.	但停止敌对行动和解决罗兴亚危机必须成为最优先的任务。


The report issued in August by the Rakhine Advisory Commission, led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, offers one possible path forward.	由前联合国秘书长科菲·安南领导的若开邦咨询委员会于8月发表了一份报告，提出了一种可能的解决方式。


These five steps will not heal all wounds or end every grievance.	上述五步走计划无法愈合所有的创伤，也无法终结一切的不满。


But they can help ease the suffering by discouraging further atrocities, deterring violent extremism, and improving border security.	但却可以通过阻止进一步暴行、遏制暴力极端主义和改善边境安全来协助缓解痛苦。


At the moment, this may be the best-possible outcome.	在目前看来，这或许是能够期望的最好结局。


Nationalists and Globalists	民族主义者和全球主义者


WASHINGTON, DC – The Dutch election was the first bright spot in a while for people in Europe and the United States who are deeply worried that the backlash against globalization will bring even more white “Judeo-Christian” nationalist parties to power.	华盛顿—荷兰大选是一段时间以来深深担忧抵制全球化将让更多的白人“犹太-基督教”民粹主义政党掌权的欧洲和美国人民所看到的第一丝曙光。


Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte defeated the anti-Islam candidate Geert Wilders, who has called for closing Dutch borders, shutting mosques, and banning the Koran.	荷兰首相吕特击败了要求关闭荷兰边境、取缔清真寺、禁止古兰经的反伊斯兰候选人吉尔特·维尔德斯（Geert Wilders）。


The standard way of describing political forces ranging from Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary to Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France to Donald Trump’s supporters in the United States is “populist.”	从欧尔班的匈牙利青年民主党（Fidesz）到玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）的法国国民阵线（National Front），再到美国的特朗普支持者，称呼这些政治力量的标准形容词是“民粹主义”。


Populism means a politics of the people, juxtaposed against a politics of the elites.	民粹主义意味着人民政治，其针对的是精英政治。


But in the US at least, Trump’s ideology – which has little to do with traditional Republican conservatism – frames the axis of division not as the many versus the few, but as nationalists versus globalists.	但至少在美国，特朗普的意识形态——与传统共和党保守主义几乎没有关系——所勾勒的分歧并非是多数人与极少数人，而是民族主义者与全球主义者。


In the first issue of American Affairs, a new conservative journal dedicated to “exploring the true content of our common citizenship,” Georgetown University Professor Joshua Mitchell writes that for “several generations conservatives have thought that the domestic enemy was progressivism.	在旨在“探索我们的共同公民权的真正内容”的新保守主义《美国事务》（American Affairs）的创刊号上，乔治敦大学教授约书亚·米切尔（Joshua Mitchell）写道，“几代保守主义者都认为，国内的敌人是进步主义。


Now they imagine they face a new problem: populism.”	现在，他们想象他们面临一个新问题：民粹主义。 ”


In fact, Mitchell argues, what is really happening is not a mass movement of the people, but a “revolt in the name of national sovereignty.”A revolt in the name of a connected nation, of citizens connected to one another, to their “towns, cities, states, and nation.”	事实上，米切尔指出，真正发生的，不是人民的群众运动，而是一场“打着民族（national）主权旗号的起义”。 一场打着联系在一起的民族（connected nation）的旗号的起义，一场打着彼此联系、与他们的“村镇、城市、国家和民族”联系的公民的旗号的革命。


As Mitchell depicts it, theirs is a grounded nationalism, rooted in the wealth of voluntary associations that Alexis de Tocqueville identified as the American antidote to the abstract rational universalism of both the French and the American revolutions.	米切尔说，他们的民族主义是接地气的（grounded）民族主义，植根于自愿的联盟。 托克维尔将这些自愿的联盟称为可解法国大革命和美国独立战争的抽象理性普世主义的美国解药。


The key point here is the relationship between borders, culture, and connection.	这里的关键点是边境、文化和联系之间的关系。


By maintaining sovereignty at the national rather than the global level, borders can be defended and communities defined and maintained.	通过在民族而不是全球层面维持主权，可以捍卫边境，定义和维持社会（community）。


If those borders dissolve, what binds human beings to one another is no longer their community or their common cultures, but only their identity.	如果这些边境解体，那么将人与人之间彼此绑定的就不再是社会或共同的文化，而只是他们的身份。


Thus, Mitchell argues, globalism and identity politics go together, and both are detached from national identity.	因此，米切尔指出，全球主义和身份政治是焦不离孟的关系，都超然于民族身份。


Being labeled a rootless globalist is always dangerous, as the Jewish people know all too well.	被贴上无根的全球主义者的标签永远是危险的，犹太人太了解这一点了。


The leading Soviet anti-Semitic slur was “rootless cosmopolitan,” a term used to refer to Jewish intellectuals and one that Vladimir Putin would be perfectly comfortable with today as he revives a Russian nationalism based on the Russian Orthodox Church, Mother Russia, and Slavic peasant culture.	首屈一指的苏联反犹诽谤便是“无根的大同论者”，这个词常常用来称呼犹太知识分子，而如今，普京正在以俄罗斯东正教、俄罗斯母亲和斯拉夫农民文化为基础复兴俄罗斯民族主义，他一定非常满意这个词。


Back in the US, many Trump supporters also excoriate globalists for what they experience as sneering disdain.	回到美国，许多特朗普支持者也抨击全球主义者对他们的轻蔑鄙视。


They rage against what they perceive as the moral sanctimony – indeed the righteousness – of the left.	他们恼怒于他们所认为的左派的道德假虔诚——实际上就是正义。


Sam Altman, the CEO of a prestigious start-up incubator in Silicon Valley, spent several months after the presidential election traveling across the US and talking to Trump voters.	山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）是硅谷一家著名创业孵化器的首席执行官，他在美国大选之后花了接个月的时间走遍美国，与特朗普的选民交谈。


When the conversation turned to the reactions of the left to Trump’s victory, many of his interlocutors argued that “the left is more intolerant than the right.”	当话题转向左派对特朗普的胜利的反应时，他的许多对话者认为“左派比右派还要偏隘。


Altman observes that this view “came up a lot, with real animosity in otherwise pleasant conversations.”	”奥尔特曼观察道，这一观点“很多人都有，给愉快的谈话带来了真正的敌意。 ”


He quotes one person saying, “Stop calling us racists.	他引用一位谈话者的话说，“不要再称我们是种族主义者。


Stop calling us idiots.	不要再称我们是蠢货。


We aren’t.	我们不是。


Listen to us when we try to tell you why we aren’t.	当我们试图向你们解释为什么我们不是时，请洗耳恭听。


Oh, and stop making fun of us.”	哦，不要再那我们耍乐子了。


That perceived combination of arrogance and ridicule fans irritation into rage and revenge fantasies.	”这一混合了傲慢和嘲笑的感觉将恼怒演变为震怒和复仇幻想。


Current White House advisers have a similar reaction.	现任白宫顾问们也有类似的反应。


A new profile of Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager turned White House counselor, notes that she has not “forgotten how people treated her back when they thought she was a sure loser.	凯丽安妮·康维（Kellyanne Conway）是特朗普竞选经理，后转任白宫法律主管，关于她的一篇新特写指出，她没有“忘记，当人们认为她是板上钉钉的输家时，是怎么对待她的。


Their attitude wasn’t one of outright rudeness or contempt; it was so much worse than that.	他们的态度不是赤裸裸的粗鲁和轻蔑； 比这还要糟糕得多。


It was syrupy condescension—the smarmy, indulgent niceness of people who think they’re better than you.”	那是一种甜蜜的高人一等的感觉——自认为比你更好的人的谄媚的、放纵的优越感。 ”


So much of higher education is about learning how to question and manage emotion.	高等教育中有许多内容是关于学习如何质疑和管理情绪的。


First-year law school students in the US learn how to suppress their natural intuitions of justice – a defective car caused an accident that injured a child severely; surely the manufacturer should pay – in favor of carefully reasoned analysis of the costs and benefits to society as a whole.	美国法学院一年级学生要学习如何抑制他们对正义的天生直觉——一辆有缺陷的汽车引发事故，造成一位儿童重伤； 显然制造商应该赔偿——以利于从作为一个整体的社会出发进行成本和收益的谨慎的理性分析。


That training often means that highly educated “elites,” who socialize primarily with one another, either forget or willfully ignore the role of emotion in politics – except to the extent that campaign consultants produce an endless supply of gauzy “feel-good” political commercials.	这种训练常常意味着教育程度较高的“精英”——他们的交际圈主要也是精英——要么忘掉，要么有意忽视情绪在政治中的作用——除了竞选顾问炮制出无数俗不可耐的“舒服的”政治广告。


Feelings of being disconnected and despised, however, are powerful emotions, strong enough to twist facts into a dark alternate reality.	但是，感到没有联系和被蔑视是强大的情绪，足以将事实扭曲成黑暗的另类现实。


It is critical to look beyond a simple story of populism, of masses versus elites.	让眼光超越简单的民粹主义叙事，超越群众对抗精英的视角，这一点至关重要。


A narrative of grounded, connected nationalism versus sanctimonious free-floating globalism is one that will generate support and staying power even among many well-educated people.	即使对于许多受过良好教育的人，接地气的、有联系的民族主义对抗道貌岸然的自由浮动的全球主义的叙事也能够在他们中间形成支持，获得权力。


The right response is not to deny the existence or legitimacy of a desire to stay grounded amid tumultuous change, or love of country and culture, much less to look down on the less educated.	正确的应对之道是不是拒绝在喧嚣的变化中保持接地气的渴望的存在或合理性，不是拒绝爱国家和文化，更不是不要着眼于教育水平较低的人群。


It is to build a new narrative of patriotism, culture, connection, and inclusion.	而是构建一个爱国主义、文化、联系和包容的新叙事。


Even if Wilders lost this month and Le Pen loses in May, they and their supporters will not be going away.	即使维尔德斯在本月吃了败仗，5月的勒庞也铩羽而归，他们和他们的支持者也不会就此烟消云散。


The Sovereignty that Really Matters	真正重要的主权


MADRID – In his famous “political trilemma of the world economy,” Harvard economist Dani Rodrik boldly claims that global economic integration, the nation-state, and democracy cannot coexist.	马德里——哈佛大学经济学家丹尼·罗德里克在其著名的“世界经济政治三难困境”中曾大胆推测全球经济一体化、民族国家和民主是不能共存的。


At best, we can combine two of the three, but always at the expense of one.	最理想情况我们能够整合这三者中的两者，但总是要以牺牲另外一个作为代价。


Until recently, the so-called Washington Consensus, with its emphasis on liberalization, deregulation, and privatization, shaped economic policy worldwide.	直到不久前，强调自由化、放松管制和私有化的所谓《华盛顿共识》一直决定着全球经济政策。


While the 2008 global financial crisis eroded its credibility, the G20 countries quickly agreed to avoid the protectionist policies against which the consensus stood.	尽管2008年全球金融危机对其信誉造成了损害，但G20国家迅速达成一致，避免该共识所坚决反对的保护主义政策。


Meanwhile, the European Union remained (and remains) the only democratic experiment on a supranational level, taking pride in its promising advances, despite being burdened by multiple defects.	此外，欧盟过去（而且现在仍然是）超国家层面唯一一项民主实验，尽管存在很多缺陷，但仍然因为拥有光明前途的进步而自豪着。


In other words, economic integration, anchored in the nation-state, remained in favor globally, while democracy was made secondary to international market dynamics.	换言之，以民族国家为锚的经济一体化依然受到世界各国的青睐，尽管民主相对于国际市场活力的地位有所下降。


But 2016 marked a turning point, though we still do not know toward what.	但2016年标志着一个转折点，虽然我们现在还无法确定转折的方向。


A “Beijing Consensus” has emerged, which some view as an alternative model of development based on greater government intervention.	“北京共识”在这一年浮出水面，有人认为这是一种基于加强政府干预的发展模式替代方案。


But it was the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump as US president that really reflected the move to upend the long-established balance among globalization, the nation-state, and democracy.	但却是英国脱欧公投和唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统这两大事件真正反映了全球化、民族国家和民主之间所达成的长期平衡被彻底破坏了。


“Let’s take back control” was the Brexiteers’ winning slogan, expressing a sentiment that clearly resonated with the slim majority of British voters who supported withdrawal from the EU.	“我们要收回控制权”是脱欧分子的获胜口号，其中所表达的情感显然与支持脱欧的微弱多数英国选民是有共鸣的。


Likewise, many Trump voters were convinced that the accumulated powers of Wall Street, transnational players, and even other countries had to be reined in to “make America great again.”	同样，许多特朗普的选民坚信华尔街、跨国势力乃至其他国家所累积的权力必须得到控制，这样才能“让美国再次伟大。 ”


It would not be wise to scorn this diagnosis, to which Rodrik himself subscribes (at least in part), just because one dislikes the proposals put forward by Trump and some of the Conservative proponents of Brexit.	如果仅仅因为不喜欢特朗普和某些脱欧派保守党支持者所提出的建议就轻视这个罗德里克本人都认可（至少是部分认可）的判断是不明智的。


Their approach consists in hindering globalization – while maintaining or even enhancing other aspects of the Washington Consensus, such as financial deregulation – and strengthening democracy through the nation-state.	他们共同的态度是阻碍全球化——同时保持甚至加强《华盛顿共识》其他方面的规则，如放松财政管制——并通过民族国家强化民主。


In his first appearance before the United Nations General Assembly, Trump delivered a 42-minute speech in which he used the words “sovereignty” or “sovereign” 21 times –an average of once every two minutes.	首次在联大露面期间，特朗普发表了长达42分钟的演讲，在演讲中他21次提到了“主权”一词——相当于平均每两分钟一次。


And in Europe, the United Kingdom is not the only country to be carried away by a neo-Westphalian current: Poland and Hungary are in its grip as well.	而且在欧洲，并非只有英国才被新威斯特伐利亚潮流所席卷：同样陷入困境的还有波兰和匈牙利。


Even the Catalan pro-independence movement, headed by various parties, most of which would not feel comfortable being labeled “anti-globalization,” follows a similar logic of retreat into nationalism.	就连各派共同领导的加泰罗尼亚独立运动（上述绝大多数派别并不承认自己是“反全球化”力量）也遵循着类似民族主义的逻辑准则。


All of these forces overestimate their capacity to dilute or circumvent existing economic integration, which has been strengthened in recent decades by the rapid development of cross-border value chains.	所有这些势力都高估了自己的能力，认为自己可以稀释或规避近几十年来跨境价值链快速发展一直强化的现有一体化。


Unless these forces reverse course, they are more likely to dilute the influence that their nation-states (or the states they seek to create) might be able to wield over globalization.	除非这些势力改变初衷，否则它们很有可能稀释所在民族国家（或者他们企图创建的国家）可能对全球化施加的影响力。


In short, an increase in formal sovereignty could paradoxically result in a loss of effective sovereignty, which is the kind that really matters.	简言之，正是主权增加可能反而削弱有效主权，而后者往往才具有真正的重要性。


Consider Britain: by exiting the EU, the British will have no say over what is, far and away, their most important export market.	以英国为例：因为退出欧盟，英国将对远方最重要的出口市场失去发言权。


As for Catalonia, a supposedly pro-independence and pro-sovereignty movement could end up creating a polity that is less sovereign and more at the mercy of international events.	而对加泰罗尼亚而言，原本人们眼中的独立和主权运动却可能最终创造出一个不那么自主的政体，受国际事务的影响也会更大。


Just a week after Trump’s UN speech, French President Emmanuel Macron presented his vision of Europe’s future in an address at the Sorbonne.	特朗普在联合国发表演讲短短一周后，法国总统伊曼纽尔·马克龙就在索邦大学的一次演讲中描绘了他对欧洲未来的愿景。


Macron also mentioned the word “sovereign” repeatedly, making it clear that it forms the basis of his vision for Europe.	马克龙同样多次提及“主权”一词，并明确以主权作为其欧洲愿景的基础。


But, unlike populists, he favors an effective and inclusive sovereignty, European in scope and supported by two more key pillars: unity and democracy.	但和民粹主义者不同，他更愿意在欧洲范围内建立有效而包容的主权，并且以团结和民主作为两大关键支柱。


Relations between states are driven by cooperation, competition, and confrontation.	国与国之间的关系由合作、竞争和对抗驱动。


There is little doubt that a certain degree of confrontation will always be present internationally.	一定程度的国际对抗无疑总是存在的。


But the EU has clearly demonstrated that its incidence can be reduced by exponentially increasing the opportunity cost of conflictive dynamics.	但欧盟已经清楚地表明可以通过指数级增加冲突的机会成本来控制对抗的烈度。


Unfortunately, the movements that understand sovereignty in isolationist terms usually revert to extreme nationalism, which is not given to promoting the common spaces that allow international society to prosper.	不幸的是，以孤立主义方式理解主权的运动往往会回归极端民族主义，而这并不利于国际社会实现共同繁荣。


The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by avoiding engagement with these states.	某些国家在边界内自我封闭的倾向是不合时宜和自暴自弃的，但如果其他国家因为害怕被传染就避免与这些国家接触也是一种严重的错误。


The spirit of cooperation, along with constructive competition, should structure relations between all players that possess international legitimacy.	合作精神应当与建设性竞争一道决定所有合法国际参与者之间的关系。


Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.	即使在那些被抱残守缺言论所主导的国家，很大一部分民众也并未对此抱有支持的态度。


Such is the case of the 48% of British voters who opposed Brexit, or the 49% of Turks who voted “no” to expanding the Turkish presidency’s powers, implicitly rejecting a narrative that used the EU as a scapegoat.	48%反对英国脱欧的英国选民就是如此，还有49%投票反对扩大土耳其总统权力的土耳其民众，这些无不在暗示将欧盟作为替罪羊的说法是多么错误。


Many of these voters would surely be disappointed if the EU turned its back on them.	如果欧盟抛弃这些选民，这些选民无疑会感到失望。


The vitality of international society depends on dialogue.	国际社会的活力取决于对话的效果。


And, to avoid perpetuating the deficiencies of the Washington Consensus, which were revealed with such clarity in 2016, this dialogue must occur within the framework of a common and democratic public sphere.	而且，为了避免《华盛顿共识》的缺陷永久化（就像2016年所明确表现出来的那样），上述对话必须是在共同和民主公共领域的框架内进行的。


If we cultivate this common public sphere, reducing the pre-eminence of the nation-state, we could advance step by step toward the least explored side of the triad described by Rodrik: global democracy.	如果我们充分发掘这一共同公共领域、控制民族国家的优势，人类就可以一步步接近罗德里克三要素中探讨最少的一面：全球民主。


Of course, a universal democracy would be a very difficult objective to achieve (Rodrik himself rules it out).	当然，普遍民主的目标将是非常难以实现的（就连罗德里克本人也已经将其排除）。


But, with technological development and the multiplication of economic and cultural synapses, it is not a chimera.	但随着技术进步和经济及文化接触的快速增加，这个目标并不是不可实现的。


In this sense, the EU has already forged a new path, one that aims to expand democracy beyond the realm of the nation-state.	从这个意义上讲，我们已经探索出一条新路。 这是一条扩大民主超越民族国家的道路。


For Europe, as well as for other regions, it is a path worth following.	对欧洲以及其他地区而言，这是一条值得尝试的道路。


The New Xenophobia	新的排外主义


OXFORD – Democratic governments in the West are increasingly losing their bearings.	牛津——西方民主政府正日渐迷失方向。


From the shift toward illiberalism in Poland and Hungary to the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and Donald Trump’s victory in the United States’ presidential election, a particularly lethal strain of populism is infecting societies – and it is spreading.	从波兰和匈牙利转向反自由主义到英国退欧公投和唐纳德·特朗普在美国总统竞选中获胜，某种特别致命的民粹主义正在感染全社会——并且仍在传播的过程中。


The appeal of populism is straightforward.	民粹主义的诉求简单粗暴。


Faced with stagnant wages and a declining quality of life, people feel frustrated – all the more so when their leaders keep telling them that things are getting better.	民众面对工资停滞和生活品质下降感到沮丧——尤其当领导人不断告诉他们局面正在改善时就更是这样。


Then the populist appears and promises to shake things up, to defend the interests of the “people” (though really only some of them), and offers something arguably more attractive than feasible solutions: scapegoats.	然后民粹主义者现身并承诺改变一些事情，以捍卫民众（其实是其中某些人）的利益，并且提供可能比可行解决方案更具吸引力的东西：那就是替罪羊。


At the top of the list of scapegoats are the “elites” – established political parties and corporate leaders.	替罪羊名单上名列前茅的是“精英阶层”——也就是现有的政党和企业领袖。


Rather than protecting the “people” from economic pressure and insecurity, this group, the populist declares, thrives on the people’s pain.	民粹主义者宣称，这些人不仅不保护“民众”免于承受经济压力和不安全感，反而从民众的痛苦中获得好处。


By advancing globalization – by forcing ever-more openness down the people’s throat – they have accumulated massive wealth, which they then protect through tax avoidance, offshoring, and other schemes.	通过推进全球化——通过迫使民众吞下更多开放的苦果——他们成功积累了大量财富，然后通过避税、离岸外包和其他见不得人的手段来加以保护。


But it is not just the elites who are blamed.	但不仅是精英阶层在承受指责。


Yes, they have betrayed the people.	是的，他们背叛了民众。


But one way they do so is by foisting upon the people equal rights and opportunities for minorities, immigrants, and foreigners, who “steal” jobs, threaten national security, and undermine traditional ways of life.	但他们背叛的一种手段是将少数族裔、移民和外国人的平等权利和机会强加给人民，任由这些人“偷走”工作、威胁国家安全并破坏传统的生活方式。


Trump won the US presidency partly because of his pledges to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and ban Muslims from entering the country.	特朗普当选美国总统部分因为他承诺驱逐数百万无证移民并禁止穆斯林进入美国。


The Brexiteers promised to end free immigration from the European Union.	英国脱欧派承诺终止欧盟的自由移民政策。


After the vote, Britain’s Home Secretary Amber Rudd suggested that firms hiring foreigners should be named and shamed.	脱欧公投后，英国内政大臣安铂·拉德建议应当公开那些雇用外国人的企业并对他们加以羞辱。


Today’s populism advances a toxic new xenophobia, one that threatens to fracture our societies.	今天的民粹主义推动有毒的新排外主义，有可能对社会起到割裂作用。


For politicians, it offers an easy means of quickly transforming people’s fear and powerlessness into an intoxicating mix of anger and authority.	对政治家而言，这提供了一种简单的方法，可以将民众的恐惧和无力迅速转化为令人陶醉的愤怒和威权组合。


It persuades intimidated (often elderly) voters that, in the parlance of the Brexiteers, they can “take back control” of their lives and their countries, primarily by rejecting foreigners.	它能够说服受到恫吓的（往往是老年）选民。 按照英国脱欧派的说法，他们可以“控制”自己的生活和国家，而实现这一目标的主要方式是拒绝外国人。


Demography makes the new xenophobia particularly dangerous.	人口统计学导致新的排外主义变得尤其凶险。


In much of the West, societies are becoming increasingly diverse.	在西方多数国家，社会正在变得越来越多样化。


Hispanics now account for 17.6% of the US population.	西班牙裔现在占美国总人口的17. 6%。


One-third of Londoners were born outside the UK.	1/3的伦敦人出生在英国之外。


In France, an estimated 10% of the population is Muslim.	在法国，约10%的人口是穆斯林。


And an estimated 20% of Germany’s population have some immigrant background.	约20%的德国人口具有某种移民背景。


In this context, when politicians campaign for votes by advancing antagonistic and divisive identity politics, they sow the seeds of animosity, mistrust, and violence within their own societies.	在这种情况下，当政治家通过宣扬敌对和分裂的身份政治来获得选票时，他们在本国社会播下了仇恨、不信任和暴力的种子。


When candidates repeatedly call Muslims dangerous, for example, no one should be surprised by a surge in anti-Muslim hate crimes, as has occurred in the wake of both the Brexit vote and Trump’s victory.	如果候选人反复宣扬穆斯林的危险性，那么就像英国刚刚脱欧和特朗普刚刚当选时那样，出现反穆斯林仇恨犯罪激增的状况人们也不应感到惊讶。


Such divided societies require a rising level of coercion and force to control.	控制如此分裂的社会需要不断增加强制力。


Diversity should be a strength, one that helps societies to flourish.	多样性应当成为协助社会蓬勃发展的某种优势。


That is why it is so important to combat the new xenophobia.	这说明了打击新排外主义的重要意义。


One way is by encouraging and enabling social mixing, interaction, and deliberation among diverse groups.	一种方法是鼓励和促成社会群体间相互混合、互动和商议。


Extensive psychological research shows that intergroup contact reduces people’s sense of threat, heightening the possibilities for building trust across society.	广泛的心理研究表明群体间接触减少了民众的威胁感，增强了建立社会信任的可能。


If community centers, schools, and public locations are places where people of different religions, cultures, and race meet, xenophobia is less likely to take root.	如果社区中心、学校和公共场所是不同宗教、文化和种族者的相聚之所，那么仇外心理就不太可能生根。


Even living in an area where others mix can help.	即使生活在其他人和睦共处的地区也能够有所帮助。


This is why the new xenophobia has largely been resisted in Europe’s most diverse cities.	这也解释了新仇外主义大都在欧洲最多样化的城市都遭到抵制的理由。


A second way to combat the new xenophobia is to reinforce the protection of civil liberties.	打击新仇外主义的第二种方法是强化对公民自由的保护。


This means upholding the rule of law, even in the face of terrorist threats, and ensuring the independence of judges.	这意味着即使面对恐怖主义威胁，也要维护法治并确保法官的独立性。


Yet, lately, there have been ominous moves in the opposite direction.	但最近出现了朝向相反的不详举动。


Leaders in Hungary and Poland have been dismantling constitutional protections; France has used a lengthy state of emergency to suspend rights; and British and American politicians have publicly denigrated judges.	匈牙利和波兰领导人一直在拆除宪法保护； 法国利用长时间的紧急状态来延缓公民权利；


Democracy was toppled by xenophobes in the 1930s not because of the strength of the anti-democratic parties, but because of democratic leaders’ failure to uphold their countries’ constitutions.	英国和美国政客公开诋毁法官。 20世纪30年代仇外主义推翻民主并非因为反民主政党的力量，而是因为民主领袖未能坚持国内宪法的缘故。


A third way to fight the new xenophobia is through innovation.	打击新仇外主义的第三种方法是通过创新。


For example, though the Internet is often viewed as a great equalizer, social media are contributing to fragmentation.	举例来讲，虽然互联网常被视为伟大的均衡力量，但社交媒体造成的碎片化正在逐渐成形。


The content to which people are exposed is filtered, whether through self-selection or algorithms.	无论是通过自主选择还是算法，人们只能看到经过过滤的内容。


The result is echo chambers in which like-minded people reinforce shared convictions, creating increasingly polarized silos.	结果造就了志同道合者强化共同信念的回音室，越来越两极分化的筒仓逐渐形成。


But, if social media platforms were reconfigured in innovative ways, they could have the opposite impact, creating spaces for citizens from diverse backgrounds to interact.	但如果社交媒体平台能以创新的方式重新配置，它们就可能产生为不同背景公民创造互动空间的相反的影响。


The threat posed by the new xenophobia should not be underestimated.	我们不应低估新排外主义所造成的威胁。


Today, no less than in the past, the rejection of diversity is tantamount to the rejection of democracy.	今天，拒绝多样性就等同于拒绝民主，这一点其实同过去一样。


That is why it must be defended, before its opponents gain any more ground.	因此我们必须捍卫民主，不让反对者再进一步赶上。


The Myth of Net-Zero Emissions	净零排放神话


BERLIN – The emissions from burning coal, oil, and gas are heating up our planet at such a rapid rate that increasingly volatile and dangerous climate conditions seem almost inevitable.	柏林—燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气产生的排放正在以飞快的速度加热我们的地球，气候条件的日益波动和日益危险已看似不可避免。


Clearly, we have to reduce emissions fast, while developing alternative energy sources that allow us to leave fossil fuels in the ground.	显然，我们需要快速减少排放，同时开发可以把化石燃料留在地下的替代能源资源。


This imperative is almost shockingly straightforward.	这一紧迫使命看起来是如此直观。


Yet climate change has been subject to so much political inertia, false information, and wishful thinking for the last few decades that we continue to see ineffective or impossible solutions, rather than an effort to address root causes.	但在过去几十年来，气候变化又受到如此多的政治惰性、错误信息和一厢情愿的困扰，以至于我们的方案依然效率低下或可望而不可及，根本没有触及问题的根源。


Often these “solutions” are based on non-existent or risky new technologies.	通常这些“解决方案”基于根本不存在或风险很高的新技术。


This approach is highly expedient, for it threatens neither business as usual nor socioeconomic orthodoxy.	这一方法只能是权宜之计，因为它既不威胁常规业务，也不触及社会经济及正统。


But climate models that depend on elusive technologies weaken the imperative to enact the deep structural changes that are needed to avoid climate catastrophe.	但依赖晦涩技术的气候模型削弱了实施避免气候灾难所必须的深刻结构变化的紧迫性。


The latest such “solution” to emerge is “net-zero emissions,” which depends on so-called “carbon capture and storage.”	最近出现的这类“结局方案”是“净零排放”，它依赖所谓的“碳捕捉和储存”（CCS）。


Though the technology still faces more than a few shortcomings, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Chairman Rajendar Pachauri issued a deeply problematic statement last month, saying that, “With CCS it is entirely possible for fossil fuels to continue to be used on a large scale.”	尽管这项技术仍面临一些缺陷，但政府间气候变化委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC）主席拉金达尔·帕查乌里（Rajendar Pachauri）上个月发表了一篇问题很大的讲话，说“有了CCS，我们完全可以继续大范围使用化石燃料。 ”


To be fair, the IPCC’s latest assessment report highlights the imperative of cutting CO2 emissions drastically to avoid exceeding the world’s small – and still risky – carbon budget.	平心而论，IPCC的最新评估报告强调了大幅削减二氧化碳排放以避免超出全球小型（但仍然十分危险）碳预算的紧迫性。


But to shift from clear-cut goals like “zero emissions,” “full decarbonization,” and “100% renewable energy” to the far hazier objective of net-zero emissions is to adopt a dangerous stance.	但从“零排放”、“完全去碳化”和“100%可再生能源”等明确的目标向净零排放等危险更大的目标的转变也是一个危险的立场。


Indeed, the net-zero idea implies that the world can continue to produce emissions, as long as there is a way to “offset” them.	事实上，净零概念意味着世界可以继续产生排放，只要找到办法“抵销”它们。


So, instead of embarking immediately on a radical emissions-reduction trajectory, we can continue to emit massive amounts of CO2 – and even establish new coal plants – while claiming to be taking climate action by “supporting” the development of CCS technology.	因此，我们不必马上采取彻底的减排措施，而大可以继续排放大量二氧化碳——甚至建设新的煤电厂——同时略作“支持”CCS技术的开发就算是采取气候行动了。


It is apparently irrelevant that such technology might not work, is riddled with practical challenges, and carries the risk of future leakage, which would have major social and environmental consequences.	显然，这一技术未必有效，还面临实践挑战，有可能导致未来泄露从而造成巨大的社会和环境后果，这些都无关紧要。


Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage is the poster child for the new “overshoot approach” of net-zero emissions.	生物技术加碳捕捉和储存（BECCS）是净零排放这一“过头方针”（overshoot approach）的榜样。


BECCS entails planting a huge amount of grass and trees, burning the biomass to generate electricity, capturing the CO2 that is emitted, and pumping it into geological reservoirs underground.	BECCS包括大量种草和种树，燃烧生物体以产生电力，捕捉期间所排放的二氧化碳并将它们泵入地下的地质储存池。


BECCS would have enormous development implications, provoking large-scale land grabs, most likely from relatively poor people.	BECCS将产生重大发展影响，造成大规模土地掠夺，最有可能的掠夺对象是相对较穷的人。


This is not some farfetched scenario; rising demand for biofuels has spurred devastating land grabs in developing countries for many years.	这不是不太可能发生的情景； 多年来，生物燃料需求的增加已经导致发展中国家的破坏性土地掠夺。


It would take a lot more land to offset a substantial share of CO2 emissions.	要抵销大比例二氧化碳排放，需要多得多的土地。


Indeed, an estimated 218-990 million hectares would have to be converted to switchgrass to sequester one billion tons of carbon using BECCS.	事实上，据估计，使用BECCS隔绝十亿吨二氧化碳需要用2. 18-9.


That is 14-65 times the amount of land the United States uses to grow corn for ethanol.	90亿英亩种植柳枝稷。 这相当于美国用来种植乙醇玉米的面积的14—65倍。


Nitrous-oxide emissions from the vast amount of fertilizer that would be required to grow the switchgrass could be enough to exacerbate climate change.	种植这些柳枝稷需要化肥，使用这些花费所排放的一氧化二氮足以恶化气候变化。


Then there are the CO2 emissions from producing synthetic fertilizers; clearing trees, shrubs, and grass from hundreds of millions of hectares of land; destroying large reservoirs of soil carbon; and transporting and processing the switchgrass.	而生产合成化肥、清理数亿英亩土地的树木、灌木和杂草、分解土壤碳储存池以及运输和处理柳枝稷也会产生二氧化碳排放。


Even more problematic is the revelation that CCS and BECCS would most likely be used for “enhanced oil recovery,” with compressed CO2 pumped into old oil wells for storage, thereby creating a financial incentive to recover more oil.	问题更大的是，据披露CCS和BECCS最有可能用于“强化石油开采”（enhanced oil recovery），将压缩二氧化碳泵入旧油井作储存之用，从而形成开采更多石油的财务激励。


The US Department of Energy estimates that such methods could make 67 billion barrels of oil – three times the volume of proven US oil reserves – economically recoverable.	美国能源部测算，这一方法将产生670亿桶有利可图的石油开采量——是美国探明石油储量的三倍。


Indeed, given the money at stake, enhanced oil recovery could actually be one of the motives behind the push for CCS.	事实上，考虑到其中涉及的金钱，强化石油开采可能正是推动CCS的幕后动机。


In any case, no form of CCS advances the goal of a structural shift toward full decarbonization, which is what social movements, academics, ordinary citizens, and even some politicians are increasingly demanding.	无论如何，没有一种CCS有利于向完全去碳化的结构变迁这一目标。 而完全去碳化正是社会运动、学界、普通公民甚至一些政客日益要求的东西。


They are prepared to accept the inconveniences and sacrifices that will arise during the transition; indeed, they view the challenge of creating a zero-carbon economy as an opportunity to renew and improve their societies and communities.	他们已经做好准备接受这一转型期间的不方便和需要作出的牺牲； 事实上，他们认为创造零碳经济的挑战是一次更新和改善社会和社区的机会。


Dangerous, elusive, and pie-in-the-sky technologies have no place in such an effort.	危险、晦涩、画饼充饥的技术在这方面的努力中没有一席之地。


A clear understanding of the climate crisis expands the range of potential solutions considerably.	对气候危机的明确理解大大扩展了潜在解决方案的范围。


For example, by banning new coal plants and shifting fossil-fuel subsidies toward the financing of renewable energy through feed-in tariffs, sustainable energy could be brought to billions of people worldwide, while reducing fossil-fuel dependency.	比如，通过禁止新的煤电厂、将化石燃料补贴改为通过趸售电价（feed-in tariffs）进行的可再生能源融资，全世界数十亿人都可以用上可持续能源，同时减小化石燃料依赖。


While such innovative and practical solutions are prevented from being scaled up, billions of dollars are pumped into subsidies that reinforce the status quo.	这些创新和实际的解决方案无法扩大规模，与此同时，数十亿美元被用于恶化现状的补贴。


The only way to reform the system and make real progress toward mitigating climate change is to work to eliminate fossil fuels completely.	改革这一体系、取得迈向减轻气候变化的真正进步的唯一办法是致力于完全消灭化石燃料。


Vague goals based on nebulous technologies simply will not work.	基于朦胧的技术的含糊目标是断然无法起作用的。


Fighting Cybercrime with Neuro-Diversity	利用神经多样性打击网络犯罪


LONDON – Cybersecurity is one of the defining challenges of the digital age.	伦敦—网络安全是典型的数字时代挑战。


Everyone, from households to businesses to governments, has a stake in protecting our era’s most valuable commodity: data.	现时代最宝贵的商品——数据的保护牵涉到所有人的利益，不论是家庭、企业还是政府。


The question is how that can be achieved.	问题是如何实现。


The scale of the challenge should not be underestimated.	不可低估这一挑战的规模。


With attackers becoming increasingly nimble and innovative, armed with an increasingly diverse array of weapons, cyber-attacks are happening at a faster pace and with greater sophistication than ever before.	袭击者变得越来越灵活和创新，他们的武器日益多样化，因此，网络攻击的节奏越来越快，也越来越成熟。


The security team of my company, BT, a network operator and Internet service provider, detects 100,000 malware samples every day – that’s more than one per second.	我的公司、网络运营商兼互联网服务提供商英国电信的安全团队每天都能监测到100,000份恶意软件样本——相当于每秒钟超过一次。


Creative thinking among cyber attackers demands creative thinking among those of us fending them off.	网络攻击者的创新思维要求我们这些网络捍卫者也必须具备创新思维。


Here, the first step is ensuring that there are enough talented and trained individuals engaged in the fight.	在这方面，第一步是要确保有足够多的人才和训练有素的个体参与到这场战斗中。


After all, according to a recent survey by the International Data Corporation, 97% of organizations have concerns about their security skills.	毕竟，据国际数据公司（International Data Corporation）的最新调查，97%的组织的安全技能存在问题。


By 2022, another study estimates, there will be 1.8 million vacant cybersecurity jobs.	另一项研究估计，到2022年将出现180万个网络安全岗位你空缺。


Amid this critical shortage of security specialists, it is imperative that we develop new approaches to attracting, educating, and retaining talented individuals, in order to create a deep pool of highly skilled cyber experts prepared to beat cybercriminals at their own game.	面对如此关键的网络专家短缺，我们必须尽快制定新方针来吸引、教育和再培训人才，以创建一个有深度的高技能网络专家人才库，时刻准备着打击现时代网络犯罪。


The key to success is diversity of talents and perspectives.	成功的关键在于人才和角度的多样性。


This includes neurological diversity, such as that represented by those with autism, Asperger syndrome, and attention-deficit disorder.	这其中包括神经多样性，如自闭症、亚斯伯格综合症和多动症等。


People with Asperger syndrome or autism, for example, tend to think more literally and systematically, making them particularly adept at mathematics and pattern recognition – critical skills for cybersecurity.	比如，患有亚斯伯格综合症的人倾向于更加直白和系统性的思考，这让他们特别擅长数学和模式识别——而这两者都是网络安全的重要技能。


The problem is that neurologically exceptional people tend to be disadvantaged by the traditional interview process, which relies heavily on good verbal communication skills.	问题在于神经异能人士在传统面试过程中往往处于劣势。 传统面试结果严重取决于良好的口头沟通技巧。


As a result, such people often struggle to find employment, and even when they do find a job, their work environment may not be able to support them adequately.	结果，这些人常常很难找到工作，即便真的找到了工作，工作环境也往往无法给予他们充分的支持。


The United Kingdom’s National Autistic Society reports that just 16% of autistic adults in Britain have full-time paid employment, and only 32% have any kind of paid work, compared to 47% for disabled people and 80% for non-disabled people.	据英国自闭症协会（National Autistic Society）报告，在英国的成年自闭症患者中，只有16%拥有全职有薪工作，只有32%拥有有薪工作，而残障人士和无残障人士拥有有薪工作的比例为47%和80%。


This highlights the scale of the challenge faced by such candidates, as well as the vast untapped resource that they represent.	这突显出这类求职者所面临的挑战之巨，也突显出对这些人才资源的巨大浪费。


Recognizing the potential of neurological diversity to contribute to strengthening cybersecurity, we at BT have reframed how we interact with candidates during interviews.	英国电信认识到神经多样性非常有利于加强安全网络，因此，我们改变了面试时与求职者的互动方法。


We encourage them to talk about their interests, rather than expecting them simply to answer typical questions about their employment goals or to list their strengths and weaknesses.	我们鼓励他们谈论他们的兴趣，而不是只是要求他们回答关于就业目标的典型问题或是列举自己的优势和劣势。


This approach has already been applied with great success by the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, and SAP in the areas of coding and software development, and by the UK’s GCHQ intelligence and security organization, one of the country’s biggest employers of autistic people.	这一方法已经被微软、亚马逊和SAP等公司应用于编程和软件开发等领域，也被英国GCHQ情报和安全组织（英国最大的自闭症人群雇主）所用，并取得了巨大的成功。


Of course, an updated approach to interviewing candidates will not work for everyone.	当然，升级面试方法不可能对所有人都起作用。


But it is a start.	但这只是个开始。


More broadly, we must do more not just to expand the opportunities available to neurologically exceptional candidates, but also to ensure that these opportunities are well publicized.	在更广的层面，我们不仅仅要扩大神经异能求职者的机会面，还要确保这些机会能够广而告之。


Delivering this change will require leadership by – and cooperation between – government and business.	实现这一变化需要政府和企业的领导，以及它们之间的合作。


I am pleased to say that, on this front, BT is already taking a leading role, including by working with the British government on their Cyber Discovery program, a special initiative to attract schoolchildren into the cyber industry, and through our own apprenticeship programs.	在这方面，我可以很高兴地说，英国电信已经取得了领先地位，与英国政府进行了网络发现（Cyber Discovery）一项吸引学生走近网络安全的特别计划项目合作，并推出了我们自己的学徒计划。


In the digital age, neuro-diversity should be viewed as a competitive advantage, not a hindrance.	在数字时代，神经多样性应该被视为竞争优势，而不是阻碍。


We now have a chance to invest in talented people who are often left behind when it comes to work, benefiting them, business, and society as a whole.	如今，我们有机会投资于常常在职场上落于人后的才华之士，实现他们、企业和社会总体的多赢。


By recognizing and developing the skills of this widely overlooked talent pool, we can address a critical skills shortage in our economies and enhance our ability to fight cybercrime.	通过认识和发展这一被广泛忽视的人才库的技能， 我们能够解决经济中至关重要的技能短缺，加强我们打击网络犯罪的能力。


Such opportunities are not to be missed.	这样的机会不容错过。


A Strategy to Unite and Safeguard Europe	一个统一和捍卫欧洲的战略


BRUSSELS – The purpose – and even the survival – of the European Union is being questioned as never before.	布鲁塞尔—欧盟的目标——乃至生存——都在经受前所未有的质疑。


In fact, Europe’s citizens and the world need a strong EU now more than ever.	事实上，欧洲人民和世界比以往任何时候都更加需要一个强大的欧盟。


Europe’s wider region has become less stable and more insecure in recent years.	近几年来， 欧洲广大地区变得更加不稳定和不安全。


Moreover, the crises within and beyond the EU’s borders are directly affecting the lives of all European citizens.	此外，欧盟内外的危机世界影响到所有欧洲公民的生活。


In challenging times such as these, a strong EU is one that thinks strategically, shares a vision, and acts together.	在如此艰巨的挑战时刻，一个强大的欧盟必须具备战略性思维、共同的愿景并齐心协力。


In the wake of the United Kingdom’s vote to “Brexit” the EU, we Europeans will indeed have to rethink how our Union works; but we know very well what we need to work for.	随着英国投票“脱欧”，我们欧洲人确实必须反思我们的联盟如何运转； 但我们很清楚我们需要做什么。


We know what our principles, interests, and priorities are.	我们知道我们的原则、利益和重点在哪里。


This is no time for political uncertainty.	现在绝不是政治不确定的时候。


The EU needs a strategy that marries a shared vision to common action.	欧盟需要一个让共同愿景和共同行动相一致的战略。


None of the EU’s member states, acting alone, has the strength to address the threats that Europe faces.	任何一个欧盟成员国都没有单枪匹马解决欧盟所面临的威胁的力量。


Nor can they seize the opportunities presented by today’s global economy alone.	它们也无法光靠自己抓住当今全球经济带来的机会。


But as a Union of more than a half-billion citizens, Europe’s potential is unparalleled.	但作为一个拥有五亿多人民的联盟，欧洲的潜力是无与伦比的。


Our diplomatic network is broad and deep, covering every corner of the globe.	我们的外交网络既广且深，覆盖地球的每一个角落。


Economically, we are in the world’s G3, alongside China and the United States.	在经济上，我们是世界G3之一，与中国和美国等量齐观。


We are the top trading partner and foreign investor for almost every country in the world.	我们是世界上几乎所有国家最大的贸易伙伴和外国投资者。


Together, the EU’s member states invest more in development cooperation than the rest of the world combined.	欧盟各成员国的发展合作投资之和比世界上其他国家加起来还要多。


It is also clear, though, that we in Europe are not making full use of this potential, at least not yet.	但同样清楚的是，我们欧洲人并没有充分利用这一潜力，至少目前如此。


A vast majority of our citizens understands that we need to take collective responsibility for our role in the world.	我们的绝大多数人民明白我们需要为我们在世界上的角色负担集体责任。


Our partners, too, expect the EU to play a major role, including as a global security provider.	我们的伙伴也期望欧盟起到主要作用，包括作为全球安全提供者。


The EU can deliver on its citizens’ needs and make its partnerships work only if we all act together – EU institutions and national governments, at all levels, united.	只有我们齐心协力——各个层面的欧盟机构和国家政府统一起来——才能满足其人民的要求，让其合作起作用。


This is exactly the aim of the Global Strategy for European Foreign and Security Policy, which I recently presented to the leaders of the member states and to the European Commission and European Council.	这正是我最近向各成员国领导人和欧盟委员会和欧洲理事会呈现的欧洲外交和安全政策全球战略（Global Strategy for European Foreign and Security Policy）的目标。


This Strategy, the EU’s first in over a decade, focuses on defense capabilities and anti-terrorism as much as on job opportunities, social inclusion, and human rights.	这一欧盟十多年来的第一份战略既强调防卫能力和反恐怖主义，也强调就业机会、社会包容和人权。


It deals with peace building and the resilience of states and societies in and around Europe.	它讨论了和平建设以及欧洲内部和周边国家和社会的恢复力。


The EU has always prided itself on its soft power – and it will continue to do so, because we are the best in this field.	欧盟向来以其软实力为傲——并将继续如此，因为我们在这方面是最优秀的。


But the idea that Europe is an exclusively “civilian power” does not do justice to an evolving reality.	但欧洲完全是一个“民事力量”（civilian power）的概念并不是不断变化的现实的真实评价。


For example, the EU currently conducts 17 military and civilian operations around the world.	比如，目前欧盟在世界各地开展着17项军事和民事任务。


In places as far afield as Afghanistan and Congo, Georgia and the Sahel, Moldova, Somalia, and the Mediterranean, thousands of men and women serve under the European flag.	在遥远如阿富汗和刚果、格鲁吉亚和萨赫勒、摩尔多瓦。 索马里和地中海等地区，成千上万男女在欧洲的旗帜下贡献力量。


For today’s Europe, soft and hard power go hand in hand.	对今天的欧洲来说，硬实力和软实力齐头并进。


The Strategy nurtures the ambition of strategic autonomy for the EU, which is necessary to promote our citizens’ common interests, as well as our principles and values.	该战略提出要培养欧盟战略自主（strategic autonomy）的雄心，这是推进我们的人民的利益以及我们的原则和价值观的必要条件。


Yet we know that such priorities are best served when we are not alone, and in an international system based on multilateralism and rules, not on global policemen and lone warriors.	但我们知道，这些重点在我们不是单枪匹马的时候才能最好地得到落实，并且需要一个基于多边主义和规则，而不是世界警察和孤胆英雄的国际体系。


This is why the EU will continue to deepen the transatlantic bond and our partnership with NATO, while also connecting to new players and exploring new formats to advance our Strategy.	因此，欧盟将继续深化跨大西洋关系以及我们与北约的合作，同时也与新行动方保持联系并探索推进我们的战略的新方式。


The EU will invest in regional institutions, and in cooperation within and among regions.	欧盟将投资于地区机构，并进行地区内和地区间合作。


And we will promote global governance reforms that can meet this century’s challenges.	我们也要推进能够应对本世纪挑战的全球治理改革。


As we do this, we will engage in a practical and principled way, sharing global responsibilities with our partners and contributing to their strengths.	在进行这些任务时，我们将以务实和守原则的方式参与，于我们的合作伙伴共同承担全球责任、增进它们的优势。


Two decades of spreading global uncertainties have taught us a clear lesson: my neighbor’s weaknesses and my partner’s weaknesses are my own weaknesses.	二十年来，全球不确定性的扩散给了我们一个明确的教训：邻居的劣势和伙伴的劣势就是我们自己的劣势。


So we will move beyond the illusion that international politics can be a zero-sum game.	因此，我们必须克服国际政治可能是零和博弈的幻觉。


Acting with resolution in this way will make each of the EU’s member states – and each citizen of our Union – better off.	带着这样的决心，每一个欧盟成员国——以及每一位欧盟人民——都能获益。


But all the goals outlined here can be achieved only by a truly united and committed Europe.	但这里所列举的所有目标都只有真正统一和坚定的欧洲才能实现。


Joining all our cultures together to achieve our shared goals and serve our common interests is a daily challenge, but it is also our greatest strength: diversity is what makes us strong.	让我们所有的文化团结起来，实现我们的共同目标、维护我们的共同利益，这是一项日常挑战，但也是我们最大的优势：多样化是我们强大的源泉。


Our interests are indeed common European interests, and the only way to serve them is by common means.	我们的利益其实就是共同欧洲利益，维护这些利益的唯一办法是通过共同途径。


That is why all Europeans, and all EU member states, have a collective responsibility to strengthen our Union.	因此，所有欧洲人，以及所有欧盟成员国，都有让我们的联盟更加强大的集体责任。


The people of Europe need unity of purpose and action among our member states.	欧洲人民需要统一各成员国的目标和行动。


A fragile world calls for a more confident and responsible EU, equipped with an outward- and forward-looking foreign and security policy.	脆弱的世界需要更有自信和负责任的欧洲，带着向外看和向前看的外交和安全政策的欧洲。


The new Global Strategy will guide us as we work toward a Union that truly meets its citizens’ needs, hopes, and aspirations; a Union that builds on the success of 70 years of peace; and a Union strong enough to contribute to peace and security in our region and worldwide.	新的全球战略将指导我们迈向一个真正满足人民的需要、希望和渴望的联盟，一个建立在70年的成功和平基础上的联盟，一个足够强大为地区和世界和平与安全做出贡献的联盟。


A New Grand Coalition for Germany – and Europe	为了德国——以及欧洲的新大联盟


NEW YORK – Friends of Germany and Europe around the world have been breathing a sigh of relief at the newfound willingness of Germany’s Christian Democrats and Social Democrats (SPD) to discuss reprising their grand coalition government.	纽约—方言全球，德国和欧洲的朋友们都为德国基督教民主党和社会民主党（SPD）重新拿出讨论恢复执政大联盟的意愿而大舒一口气。


The world needs a strong and forward-looking Germany in a dynamic European Union.	世界需要一个活力四射的欧盟，其中有一个强大而前瞻的德国。


A new grand coalition working alongside French President Emmanuel Macron’s government would make that possible.	新的大联盟如能与法国总统马克龙的政府携手合作，将使上面的情景成为可能。


The SPD’s initial decision to go into opposition after its poor election result in September may have been sincere, and even strategically sound.	在经历了9月选举惨败后，SPD起先决定成为反对党，这是个真心实意的决定，甚至可以说在策略上相当合理。


But it is not timely.	但这不是一个适时的决定。


Diplomacy almost everywhere is fractured.	几乎所有国家的外交都在遭遇挫折。


The United States is reckoning with a psychologically unstable president, a plutocratic cabinet, and a Republican congressional majority.	美国需要对付一个心理不稳定的总统，一个财阀内阁，和一个共和党占多数的国会。


Europe is in the throes of multiple economic, social, political, and institutional crises.	欧洲正陷入多重经济、社会、政治和制度危机。


China, by contrast, is dynamic and outward-looking – providing good reason for the EU to assume vigorous leadership and engage in constructive partnerships with China on key initiatives (such as sustainable infrastructure across Eurasia).	相反，中国充满活力，目光开放——这给了欧盟很好的理由去充当强力领导者，与中国在关键问题（如欧亚可持续基础设施）上进行建设性合作。


In short, this is a critical time for Germany and Europe to provide vision, stability, and global leadership.	简言之，这是德国和欧洲彰显愿景、稳定和全球领导力的关键时机。


And that imperative extends to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the SPD.	这一任务落在了德国总理默克尔的基督教民主联盟（CDU）、其巴伐利亚姊妹党基督教社会联盟（CSU）和SPD肩上。


But the CDU/CSU and the SPD need to do more than merely extend the previous government, which was too parochial in outlook and temperament.	但CDU/CSU和SPD需要做的不仅仅是扩大前任政府。 前任政府的眼光和格局不够开阔。


The world and Europe need an outward-looking Germany that offers more institutional and financial innovation, so that Europe can be a true counterpart to the US and China on global affairs.	世界和欧洲需要一个眼光开放的德国提供更多的制度和金融创新，从而使欧洲能够真正在国际事务上与美国和中国等量齐观。


I say this as someone who believes firmly in Europe’s commitment and pioneering statecraft when it comes to sustainable development, the core requirement of our time.	我这么说，代表的是那些坚定地相信欧洲对于现时代的核心要求——可持续发展的承诺和开创性的治国之道的人。


Economic growth that is socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable is a very European idea, one that has now been embraced globally in the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals, as well as in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.	社会包容、环境可持续的经济增长是一个相当“欧洲”的概念，如今，它已经被全世界所接受，并写入了联合国2030年日程及其17个可持续发展目标，也写入了2015年巴黎气候协定。


Europe’s experience with social democracy and Christian democracy made this global vision possible.	欧洲在社会民主和基督教民主方面的经验使其全球愿景成为可能。


But now that its agenda has been adopted worldwide, Europe’s leadership in fulfilling it has become essential.	但既然其日程已经被全世界所接受，欧洲自然也应该承担起领导责任。


A grand coalition government in Germany must help put Europe in a position to lead.	德国组成执政大联盟必须有助于欧洲的领导地位。 法国总统马克龙提出了一些重要概念：一个欧洲财政部；


French President Emmanuel Macron has offered some important ideas: a European finance minister; Eurobonds to finance a new European investment program; more emphasis on innovation; a financial transactions tax to fund increased aid to Africa, where Europe has a strategic interest in long-term development; and tax harmonization more generally, before the US triggers a global race to the bottom on taxing corporations and the rich.	实施金融交易税作为资金源提高对非洲的援助（非洲是欧洲长期发展战略利益之所在）； 以及在美国掀起公司和富人税收向下竞争之前实现总体税制协调。


Contrary to the Germans who oppose such ideas, a European finance minister and Eurobonds would not and should not lead to fiscal profligacy, but rather to a revival of investment-led green growth in Europe.	与反对这些概念的德国人相反，欧洲财政部和欧元债券不会也不应该会导致财政挥霍，而会也应该会复兴欧洲的投资拉动的绿色增长。


China has proposed the Belt and Road Initiative to build green infrastructure linking Southeast Asia and Central Asia with Europe.	中国已经推出了一带一路计划，建设连接东南亚和中亚与欧洲的绿色基础设施。


This is the time for Europe to offer the same bold vision, creating a partnership with China to renovate Eurasia’s infrastructure for a low-carbon future.	欧洲应该推出同样的大胆规划，与中国进行合作，建设面向低碳未来的欧亚基础设施。


If Europe plays its cards right, Europe’s (and China’s) scientific and technical excellence would flourish under such a vision.	如果欧洲采取正确策略的话，欧洲（以及中国）的科学和技术将因此繁荣。


If not, we will all be driving Chinese electric vehicles charged by Chinese photovoltaic cells in the future, while Germany’s automotive industry will become a historical footnote.	否则，未来我们都将开着靠中国光伏发电提供动力的中国电动汽车，而德国汽车业将成为历史的注脚。


A European finance minister would, moreover, finally end Europe’s self-inflicted agony in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.	此外，欧洲财政部还能够最终结束欧洲自2008年金融危机以来的自作自受。


As difficult as it is to believe, Greece’s crisis continues to this day, at Great Depression scale, ten years after the onset of the crisis.	希腊危机以大萧条的规模一直持续到今天——危机爆发整整十年之后，这简直令人难以置信。


This is because Europe has been unable, and Germany unwilling, to clean up the financial mess (including Greece’s unpayable debts) in a fair and forward-looking manner (akin to the 1953 London Agreement on German External Debts, as Germany’s friends have repeatedly reminded it).	这是因为欧洲不能、德国不愿用公平、前瞻的方式（类似于1953年伦敦德国对外债务协定，德国的朋友们一再提到这一点）清理金融混乱（包括希腊无力偿还的债务）。


If Germany won’t help to lead on this issue, Europe as a whole will face a prolonged crisis with severe social, economic, and political repercussions.	如果德国无法在这个问题上起到领导作用，作为一个整体的欧洲就将面临漫长的危机，伴随严重的社会、经济和政治影响。


In three weeks, Macron will convene world leaders in Paris on the second anniversary of the climate accord.	三周后，马克龙将在巴黎与全世界领导人迎来巴黎气候协定两周年。


France should certainly take a bow here, but so should Germany.	法国当然应该接受全世界的致意，但德国同样应该如此。


During Germany’s G20 Presidency, Merkel kept 19 of the 20members of the G20 firmly committed to the Paris agreement, despite US President Donald Trump’s disgraceful attempt to wreck it.	在德国担任G20主席国期间，尽管美国总统特朗普可耻地试图颠覆巴黎协定，但默克尔还是让G20的20个成员中的19个坚决承诺坚守巴黎协定。


Yes, the corruption of US politics (especially campaign funding by the oil and gas industry) threatened the global consensus on climate change.	诚然，美国政坛的腐败（特别是石油和天然气行业的政治献金）威胁到关于气候变化的全球共识。


But Germany stood firm.	但德国立场坚定。


The new coalition should also ensure that the country’s Energiewende (“energy transition”) delivers on the 2020 targets set by previous governments.	新的执政联盟还应该确保由前任政府所制定的2030年Energiewende（“能源转型”）目标。


These achievable and important commitments should not be a bargaining chip in coalition talks.	这些重要的可实现承诺不应该沦为执政联盟谈判的筹码。


A CDU/CSU-SPD alliance, working with France and the rest of Europe, could and should do much more on climate change.	CDU/CSU-SPD联盟如果能与法国和欧洲其他国家精诚合作，就能够也应该为气候变化做更多的事。


Most important, Europe needs a comprehensive energy plan to decarbonize fully by 2050.	最重要的是，欧洲需要一套全面的能源计划以实现到2050年完全去碳化。


This will require a zero-carbon smart power grid that extends across the continent and taps into the wind and solar power not only of southern Europe but also of North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean.	这需要一个覆盖整个欧洲的零碳智能电网，并利用好风能和太阳能（不仅包括南欧，也包括北非和东地中海地区的风能和太阳能）。


Once again, Eurobonds, a green partnership with China, and unity within Europe could make all the difference.	在这方面，欧元债券、与中国的绿色合作伙伴计划，以及欧洲内部的联合将能够造成巨大的不同。


Such an alliance would also enable a new foreign policy for Europe, one that promotes peace and sustainable development, underpinned by new security arrangements that do not depend so heavily on the US.	这样一个联盟还能给欧洲带来新的外交政策，促进和平和可持续发展。 其基础是不再过于依赖美国的安全安排。


Europe, a magnet for hundreds of millions of would-be economic migrants, could, should, and I believe would regain control of its borders, allowing it to strengthen and enforce necessary limits on migration.	欧洲就像一块吸引着数亿潜在经济移民的磁石，它能够、应该，并且我相信也必将重新控制自己的边境，让它变得更强，并对移民进行必要的限制。


The political terms of a new grand coalition government, it would seem, are clear.	新执政大联盟的政治条件似乎非常清楚。


The SPD should hold out for ministerial leadership on economic and financial policy, while the CDU/CSU holds the chancellorship.	SPD应该坚持掌握经济和金融政策的部门领导，而CDU/CSU则拥有总理。


That would be a true coalition, not one that could bury the SPD politically or deny it the means to push for a truly green, inclusive, EU-wide, sustainable development agenda.	这将是一个真正的联盟，而会葬送SPD的政治生命或堵死通向真正的绿色、包容、泛欧盟、可持续的发展日程之路。


With Merkel and SPD leader Martin Schulz in the lead, the German government would be in excellent, responsible, and experienced hands.	在默克尔和SPD领导人马丁·舒尔茨（Martin Schulz）的领导下，德国政府将由出色、负责、有经验人物领导。


Germany’s friends and admirers, and all supporters of global sustainable development, are hoping for this breakthrough.	德国的朋友们和仰慕者们，以及所有全球可持续发展的支持者们，都希望能够实现这一突破。


Controlling Cyber Conflict	控制网络冲突


LAS VEGAS – When cyber-security professionals were polled recently at their annual BlackHat conference in Las Vegas, 60% said they expected the United States to suffer a successful attack against its critical infrastructure in the next two years.	拉斯维加斯—最近网络安全专家们齐聚拉斯维加斯黑帽（BlackHat）年会，其中60%的人预测美国将在未来两年之内遭遇针对其重要基础设施的成功的袭击。


And US politics remains convulsed by the aftermath of Russian cyber interference in the 2016 election.	美国政坛仍然处在俄罗斯网络干预2016年大选所引起的地震之中。


Are cyber-attacks the wave of the future, or can norms be developed to control international cyber conflict?	网络袭击将是未来潮流吗？ 还是可以制定出规范来控制国际网络冲突？


We can learn from the history of the nuclear age.	我们可以从核时代的历史中汲取教训。


While cyber and nuclear technologies are vastly different, the process by which society learns to cope with a highly disruptive technology shows instructive similarities.	网络与核技术固然大相径庭，但社会学习应对高破坏性技术的过程则表现出很有意义的相似性。


It took states about two decades to reach the first cooperative agreements in the nuclear era.	在核时代，各国用了大约二十年时间达成了第一批合作协定。


If one dates the cyber-security problem not from the beginning of the Internet in the 1970s, but from the late 1990s, when burgeoning participation made the Internet the substrate for economic and military interdependence (and thus increased our vulnerability), cooperation is now at about the two-decade mark.	如果我们将和安全问题的源头从20世纪90年代末上网人数迅速膨胀让互联网成为经济和军事互相依存的基础（从而也让我们越来越脆弱）算起，而不是20世纪70年代互联网诞生时算起，那么现在合作也已经到了二十年的门槛。


The first efforts in the nuclear era were unsuccessful United Nations-centered treaties.	核时代的第一批合作努力是以联合国为核心的条约。


In 1946, the US proposed the Baruch plan for UN control of nuclear energy, and the Soviet Union promptly rejected locking itself into a position of technological inferiority.	这些努力没有取得成功。 1946年，美国提出了巴鲁克（Bauch）计划，让联合国来控制核能，而苏联断然拒绝让自己处于技术劣势。


It was not until after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 that a first arms control agreement, the Limited Test Ban Treaty, was signed, in 1963. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty followed in 1968, and the bilateral US-USSR Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty in 1972.	直到1962年的古巴导弹危机发生后，才在1963年签署了第一份军备控制协定，即部分禁止核试验条约（Limited Test Ban Treaty）。


In the cyber field, Russia proposed a UN treaty to ban electronic and information weapons (including propaganda) in 1999.	在网络领域，1999年俄罗斯向联合国提出了一份禁止电子和信息武器（包括宣传）的条约。


With China and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it has continued to push for a broad UN-based treaty.	在中国和其他上海合作组织成员的合作下，联合国一直在推动广泛的以联合国为基础的条约。


The US resisted what it saw as an effort to limit American capabilities, and continues to regard a broad treaty as unverifiable and deceptive.	美国不愿接受它视为图谋限制美国能力的协定，并一直认为广泛的条约是无法核实的，具有欺骗性。


Instead, the US, Russia, and 13 other states agreed that the UN Secretary General should appoint a Group of Governmental Experts (GGE), which first met in 2004.	相反，美国、俄罗斯和其他13国一致认为，联合国秘书长应该任命一个政府专家团（GGE），2004年，GGE举行了第一次会议。


That group initially produced meager results; but, by July 2015, it issued a report, endorsed by the G20, that proposed norms for limiting conflict and confidence-building measures.	GGE一开始收效甚微； 但到2015年7月，它发布了一份获得G20支持的报告，报告提出了限制冲突和构建信心的手段的规范。


Groups of experts are not uncommon in the UN process, but only rarely does their work rise from the UN’s basement to a summit of the world’s 20 most powerful states.	专家团在联合国流程中并不罕见，但其工作可以从联合国大本营来到全世界最强大的20个国家的峰会则十分罕见。


But while the GGE’s success was extraordinary, last month it failed and was unable to issue a consensus report for 2017.	但尽管GGE取得了了不起的成功，上个月它还是没有，也无法形成一份2017年的共识报告。


The GGE process has limitations.	GGE流程有其局限性。


The participants are technically advisers to the UN Secretary General rather than fully empowered national negotiators.	其成员在技术上属于联合国秘书长的顾问，而不是获得充分授权的国家谈判者。


Over the years, as the number of GGE member states increased from the original 15 to 20 and then to 25, the group became more unwieldy, and political issues became more intrusive.	多年来，GGE成员国数量从最初的15增加到20个，后来又增加到25个，但专家团日显臃肿，政治问题也变得日益尖锐。


According to one diplomat who has been central to the process, some 70 countries have expressed interest in participating.	根据一位身为该流程核心的外交官透露，大约70个国家表达出参加专家团的兴趣。


But as the numbers expand, the difficulty of reaching agreement increases.	但随着数字的日渐庞大，形成协议的困难也随之增加了。


There is a wide range of views about the future of the GGE process.	对于GGE流程的未来，人们众说纷纭。


A first draft of a new report existed at the beginning of this year, and the able German chairman argued that the group should not rewrite the 2015 report, but try to say more about the steps that states should take in peacetime.	今年年初，新报已经有了的第一份草稿，有为的专家团德国主席认为专家团不应该重写2015年报告，而是要试图阐述更多关于各国在和平年代应该采取哪些措施的内容。


Some states suggested new norms to address data integrity and maintenance of the Internet’s core structures.	一些国家提出了新的规范来解决数据完整性和维护互联网核心构架的问题。


There was general agreement about confidence-building measures and the need to strengthen capacity.	对于构建信心的措施，以及强化能力的必要，达成了总体一致。


The US and like-minded states pressed for further clarification of the earlier agreement that international laws of armed conflict, including the right of self-defense, apply in cyber space, but China, Russia, and their allies were reluctant to agree.	美国和立场相近的国家要求进一步阐明早前的协定：关于武装冲突的国际法（包括自卫权）在网络空间中的应用，但是，中国、俄罗斯和它们的盟国不愿意接受。


And the deterioration in US-Russian relations soured the political climate.	而美俄关系的恶化更是让政治气候急转直下。


Moreover, whereas some states hope to revive the GGE process or enlarge it into a broader UN process, others are skeptical, and believe that future progress will be limited to discussions among like-minded states, rather than leading to universal agreements.	此外，尽管一些国家希望修订GGE流程或将它扩大为一个更广泛的联合国流程，但其他国家对此持狐疑态度，认为未来进展将局限于观念相近的国家之间的讨论，而不是形成普适的协定。


Norms that may be ripe for discussion outside the GGE process could include protected status for the core functions of the Internet; supply-chain standards and liability for the Internet of Things; treatment of election processes as protected infrastructure; and, more broadly, norms for issues such as crime and information warfare.	适合在GGE流程之外讨论的规范包括互联网核心功能的受保护地位、供给链标准和物联网责任、将选举流程视为受保护的基础设施，以及意义更加广泛的关于犯罪和信息站等问题的规范。 所有这些都是新成立的非正式国际网络空间稳定委员会（International Commission on Stability in Cyberspace）准备考虑的话题。


All of these are among the topics that may be considered by the new informal Global Commission on Stability in Cyberspace established early this year and chaired by former Estonian Foreign Minister Marina Kaljurand.	国际网络空间稳定委员会成立于今年年初，由前爱沙尼亚外交部长玛丽娜·卡尔朱兰德（Marina Kaljurand）担任主席。


Progress on the next steps of norm formation will require simultaneous use of many different formats, both private and governmental.	要想在形成规范的后续的步骤上取得进展，需要多管齐下，包括私人和政府形式。


For example, the 2015 agreement between China and the US to limit industrial cyber espionage was a bilateral accord that was later taken up by the G20.	比如，中国和美国在2015年达成协议限制工业网络间谍行为，这是一份双边协议，后来被G20所采纳。


In some cases, the development of norms among like-minded states can attract adherence by others at a later point.	在一些情况中，观念相近国家之间的规范的发展可能会在日后吸引其他国家的遵守。


In others, such as the Internet of Things, norms for security standards may benefit from leadership by the private sector or non-profit stakeholders in establishing codes of conduct.	在其他领域，比如物联网，如果私人部门或非营利相关利益方能够在制定行为准则方面起到领导作用，安全标准规范将大受裨益。


And progress in some areas need not wait for others.	某个领域的进展不必等待其他领域。


A regime of norms may be more robust when linkages are not too tight, and an over-arching UN treaty would harm such flexibility at this point.	当环节之间联系不过分紧时，规范机制有可能会更加稳定，而在眼下，一个涵盖一切的联合国条约可能不利于这一灵活性。


Expansion of participation is important for the acceptance of norms, but progress will require action on many fronts.	扩大参与度是规范得到接受的重要条件，但进展需要在许多方面采取行动。


Given this, the failure of the GGE in July 2017 should not be viewed as the end of the process.	因此，GGE在2017年7月的失败不应该视为该流程的末日。


Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stilts	高跷上的非常规货币政策


NEW YORK – With most advanced economies experiencing anemic recoveries from the 2008 financial crisis, their central banks have been forced to move from conventional monetary policy – reducing policy rates via open-market purchases of short-term government bonds – to a range of unconventional policies.	纽约—2008年金融危机以来，大部分发达经济体复苏无力，它们的央行被迫从常规货币政策——通过公开市场购买短期政府债券降低政策利率——转向各种非常规政策。


Although the zero nominal bound on interest rates – previously only a theoretical possibility – had been reached and zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) had been implemented, growth remained anemic.	尽管名义利率已经到达零区间——此前这只是一种理论可能——并实施了零利率政策（ZIRP），但增长依然无力。


So central banks embraced measures that didn’t even exist in their policy toolkit a decade ago.	因此，央行采取了一些十年前尚不再其工具箱中的措施。


And now they are poised to do so again.	现在，它们也需要再次祭出这些工具。


The list of unconventional measures has been extensive.	非常规手段清单很长。


There was quantitative easing (QE), or purchases of long-term government bonds, once short-term rates were already zero.	有量化宽松（QE），即在短期利率已经为零的情况下购买长期政府债券。


This was accompanied by credit easing (CE), which took the form of central-bank purchases of private or semi-private assets – such as mortgage- and other asset-backed securities, covered bonds, corporate bonds, real-estate trust funds, and even equities via exchange-traded funds.	与它搭配实施的有信用宽松（CE），其形式为央行购买私人或准私人资产——如按揭和其他抵押证券、有担保债券、公司债券、房地产信托基金甚至通过交易所交易基金购买股票。


The aim was to reduce private credit spreads (the difference between yields on private assets and those on government bonds of similar maturity) and to boost, directly and indirectly, the price of other risky assets such as equities and real estate.	其目的是降低私人信用利差（期限相近的私人资产和政府债券之间的收益率之差）并直接或间接地提振股票和房地产等风险资产的价格。


Then there was “forward guidance” (FG), the commitment to keep policy rates at zero for longer than economic fundamentals justified, thereby further reducing shorter-term interest rates.	还有“前瞻指引”（FG），即承诺保持零利率政策直到经济基本面恢复之后，从而进一步降低较短期利率。


For example, committing to maintain zero policy rates for, say, three years implies that interest rates on securities with up to a three-year maturity should also fall to zero, given that medium-term interest rates are based on expectations concerning short-term rates over the next three years.	比如，承诺保持零政策利率（比如）三年意味着期限三年以下的证券的利率应该也降低到零，因为中期利率是基于未来三年的短期利率的预期决定的。


Capping things off, there was unsterilized currency-market intervention to boost exports via a weaker currency.	最后，还有无冲销货币市场干预以实现货币贬值从而提振出口。


These policies did indeed reduce long- and medium-term interest rates on government securities and mortgage bonds.	这些政策确实降低了政府债券和按揭债券的长期和中期利率。


They also narrowed credit spreads on private assets, boosted the stock market, weakened the currency, and reduced real interest rates by increasing inflation expectations.	它们也压缩了私人资产的信用利差，提振了股票市场，贬值了货币，并通过提高通货膨胀预期降低了真实利率。


So they were partly effective.	因此，它们是局部有效的。


Still, in most advanced economies, growth (and inflation) remained stubbornly low.	但是，在大部分发达经济体，增长（和通胀）仍然顽固地保持低位。


There was no shortage of reasons for this.	其来有自。


Given deleveraging from high private and public debts, unconventional monetary policies could prevent severe recessions and outright deflation; but they could not bring about robust growth and 2% inflation.	由于要在私人和公共债务高企的基础上去杠杆，非常规货币政策能够避免严重衰退和彻底通缩； 但无法带来强劲的增长和2%的通胀。


Moreover, the policy mix was suboptimal.	此外，政策组合只是次优。


While monetary policy can play an important role in boosting growth and inflation, structural policies are needed to increase potential growth and keep firms, households, banks, and government from turning into zombies, chronically unable to spend because of too much debt.	货币政策可以在提振增长和通胀方面起到重要作用，但还需要结构政策增加潜在增长和避免企业、家庭、银行和政府僵尸化，因为债务过多而产期无力支出。


And fiscal policies were also necessary to support aggregate demand.	财政政策也是支持总需求的必要条件。


Unfortunately, the political economy of most structural reforms – with their front-loaded costs and back-loaded benefits – implies that they occur only slowly.	不幸的是，大部分结构改革的政治经济学——以及前置的成本和后置的收益——意味着它们只能缓慢实施。


At the same time, fiscal policy has been constrained in some countries by high deficits and debts (which jeopardize market access), and in others (the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for example) by a political backlash against further fiscal stimulus, leading to austerity measures that undermine short-term growth.	与此同时，一些国家的财政政策囿于高赤字和债务（这意味着难以进入市场），还有一些国家（比如欧元区、英国和美国）则囿于反对进一步财政刺激的政治阻力，这导致了破坏短期增长的紧缩措施。


So, like it or not, central banks became and still are the only game in town when it comes to supporting aggregate demand, lifting employment, and preventing deflation.	因此，不管你喜不喜欢，在支持总需求、提高就业和预防通缩方面，中央银行成为并仍然是唯一的可作文章之处。


As a result, unconventional monetary policies – entrenched now for almost a decade – have themselves become conventional.	结果，非常规货币政策——目前已经维持了近十年——本身已经变成了常规。


And, in view of persistent lackluster growth and deflation risk in most advanced economies, monetary policymakers will have to continue their lonely fight with a new set of “unconventional unconventional” monetary policies.	而从大部分发达经济体持续低迷的增长和通缩风险看，货币决策者将不得不继续用新的“非常规非常规”货币政策一个人战斗。


Some have already been implemented.	一些政策已经实施。


For example, negative interest policy rates (NIRPs) are now standard in Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, the eurozone, and Japan, where the excess reserves that banks hold with central banks as a result of QE are taxed with a negative rate.	比如，负利率政策（NIRP）已见于瑞士、瑞典、丹麦、欧元区和日本，银行因为QE而在央行存放的超额储备通过负利率被课税。


Policymakers have shifted from working on the quantity of money (QE, CE, and foreign-exchange intervention) to working on the price of money (first ZIRP, then FG, and now NIRP).	决策者从注重货币数量（QE、CE和外汇干预）转而注重货币价格（首先是ZIRP，然后是FG，现在是NIRP）。


Nominal interest rates are now negative not only for overnight debt, but also for ten-year government bonds.	如今，不但隔夜债务的名义利率为负，十年期政府债券的名义利率也为负。


Indeed, about $6 trillion worth of government bonds around the world today have negative nominal yields.	事实上，如今全世界价值约6万亿美元的政府债券名义收益率为负。


The next stage of unconventional unconventional monetary policy – if the risks of recession, deflation and financial crisis sharply increase – could have three components.	非常规非常规货币政策的下个阶段——如果衰退、通缩和金融危机风险显著上升的话——可能有三个要素。


First, central banks could tax cash to prevent banks from attempting to avoid the negative-rate tax on excess reserves.	首先，央行可以对现金课税以防止银行试图规避超额储备的负利率税。


With banks unable to switch into cash (thereby earning zero rates), central banks could go even more negative with policy rates.	由于银行无法提取现金（从而赚取零利率），央行可以让政策利率进一步变负。


Second, QE could evolve into a “helicopter drop” of money or direct monetary financing by central banks of larger fiscal deficits.	其次，QE可能演化为“直升机撒钱”或由央行为更大的财政赤字直接进行货币融资。


Indeed, the recent market buzz has been about the benefits of permanent monetization of public deficits and debt.	事实上，当前的市场喧嚣围绕公共赤字和债务永久货币化的好处。


Moreover, while QE has benefited holders of financial assets by boosting the prices of stocks, bonds, and real estate, it has also fueled rising inequality.	此外，尽管QE通过提振股票、债券和房地产价格而有利于金融资产持有者，但也助长了不平等性的加剧。


A helicopter drop (through tax cuts or transfers financed by newly printed money) would put money directly into the hands of households, boosting consumption.	直升机撒钱（通过用印钞来进行减税或转移支付）将把钱直接分给家庭，提振消费。


Third, credit easing by central banks, or purchases of private assets, could broaden significantly.	第三，央行信用宽松或购买私人资产的规模可以大幅扩张。


Think of direct purchases of stocks, high-risk corporate bonds, and banks’ bad loans.	可以考虑直接购买股票、高风险公司债券和银行不良贷款。


If unconventional unconventional monetary policies sound a little crazy, it’s worth remembering that the same was said about “conventional unconventional” policies just a few years ago.	如果说非常规非常规货币政策听起来有些疯狂，那你应该回忆一下几年前人们对“常规非常规”政策的看法也是如此。


And if current conditions in the advanced economies remain entrenched a decade from now, helicopter drops, debt monetization, and taxation of cash may turn out to be the new QE, CE, FG, ZIRP, and NIRP.	而如果发达经济体目前的情况再维持一个十年，那么直升机撒钱、债务货币化和现金税可能成为新的QE、CE、FG、ZIRP和NIRP。


Desperate times call for desperate measures.	非常时期需要非常手段。


Ending the Business of Child Labor	终结童工制度


NEW DELHI – In October 1997, when global leaders gathered in Oslo to strategize how to end child labor, we brought a huge ambition and a deep commitment to change.	发自新德里——1997年10月，当全球领导人齐聚挪威首都奥斯陆，共同为终结童工制度制定战略时，人们雄心万丈，为变革许下了坚定的承诺。


Through improved collaboration and planning, we sought to protect children from exploitation, and to develop “new strategies to eliminate child labor at the national, regional, and international levels.”	通过改善合作和计划制定，我们力求保护儿童不受剥削，并制定“在国家，地区和国际层面消灭童工的新战略”。


Now, 20 years later, it is time to ask: how have we done?	一晃20年过去了，也是时候问一句：我们做得怎么样了？


Poorly.	答案不甚乐观。


Since that first meeting, the world has not even halved the number of children in the workforce.	自首次会议以来，全球的童工数量还未能减少一半。


In the last five years, the international community has managed to reduce the number of employed children by just 16 million, the slowest pace of reduction in decades.	过去五年来，国际社会设法将就业儿童数量减少了1600万，但这也是几十年来减少得最慢的时段。


Of the 152 million children working today, some 73 million are doing jobs considered hazardous.	在眼下这1. 52亿名童工中，约有7300万人从事危险性工作。


Even “safe” child labor affects victims’ physical and physiological wellbeing long into adulthood.	而即便是那些“安全的”童工工作也会给受害者造成一路延续到成年的身体和生理健康问题。


Worse, according to the most recent data from the International Labor Organization, the world has made the least progress in protecting two of the most at-risk populations: children between the ages of five and 11, and young girls.	更糟糕的是，根据国际劳工组织最新发布的数据，全球在保护两个最易受侵害的人口组别方面进展最少：5~11岁的儿童和年轻女孩。


The problem is not that we have failed to learn anything during our four global gatherings (the most recent one, held in Buenos Aires, wrapped up earlier this month).	问题不在于我们在四次全球性会议（最近一次会议于本月初在布宜诺斯艾利斯闭幕）中没有学到任何东西。


The problem is that we have failed, and are failing, to take our own advice.	而是在听取自身建议方面，我们过去未能做到，当前也无法实现。


Even as we talk, disturbing global developments have added a sinister twist to child labor and trafficking.	即使在我们开会的时候，令人不安的全球形势发展也给童工和人口贩运活动增添了一个邪恶的转折。


This was supposed to be the century of empowerment for the most marginalized.	这本应是一个最边缘人群被赋予权力的世纪。


Instead, we are witnessing globalization of the most perverted kind, with children becoming victims many times over.	相反，我们目睹了最为扭曲的全球化进程，而在此期间儿童一次又一次地成为受害者。


Because traffickers can easily prey amid chaos, children in conflict zones are particularly vulnerable.	由于人贩子可以在混乱中肆意掠夺，冲突地区的儿童特别容易受到伤害。


Syria has commanded attention for years because of the horrific violence to which children there are subjected.	叙利亚多年来一直受到关注，因为那里的儿童遭受了可怕的暴力。


But the global rise of organized gangs means that children in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe are also at risk.	而有组织犯罪团伙在全球的崛起意味着亚洲，非洲，拉丁美洲和欧洲的儿童也面临着危险。


Stemming this trend requires urgent and coordinated investment in education and safety wherever children are at risk – in conflict zones, refugee camps, and in areas affected by natural disasters.	为了应对这一趋势，就需要在儿童面临风险的地方——冲突地区，难民营和受自然灾害影响的地区——针对教育和安全方面进行紧急且协调一致的投资。


I am often left wondering how we got to this point.	我经常思考我们是如何沦落到这一步的。


Over the last 37 years, colleagues and I have rescued more than 87,000 children from forced labor in India.	过去37年来，我和同僚们在印度救出了8. 7万多名被强迫劳动的儿童。


We have rescued girls who were so abused that they lost their ability to speak.	我们救出了那些遭受残忍虐待以致失去语言能力的女孩。


Recently, we rescued children from a garment factory in New Delhi, where, for more than three years, they had been forced to sit and work for 20 hours a day in a basement with no ventilation.	最近我们从新德里的一家制衣厂中营救了一批孩子，在过去三年多的时间中他们被迫待在一个不通风的地下室里每天工作20个小时。


When they were brought to Mukti Ashram, our transit rehabilitation center, many were unable to walk or even look up at the sun.	当他们被带到我们的自由修行所（Mukti Ashram）中转康复中心时，许多人无法走路，甚至怕见阳光。


We are proud of our accomplishments.	我们为自己所取得的成就感到自豪。


But humans’ depravity is a source of continued sorrow.	但人类的堕落是悲伤不断延续的根源。


How can we end this suffering once and for all?	我们怎样才能一劳永逸地结束这种痛苦呢？


Global gatherings, like the one that just ended, certainly have a role to play.	方才闭幕的那类全球性会议肯定有自己的作用。


But talk alone will not suffice.	但是单靠讨论是不够的。


Serious problems confronting humanity are tackled only when stakeholders become full participants.	只有当利益相关者成为充分的参与者时，才能解决人类面临的严峻问题。


Successes in public health are instructive. For example, there was a time when diseases like polio and smallpox ravaged millions.	在公共卫生方面取得的成就是有借鉴意义的。


Through the coordinated efforts of doctors, volunteers, global institutions, local governments, and civil society, these diseases were tamed. Similar collaboration is needed now to reduce child labor.	小儿麻痹症和天花等疾病曾在过去肆虐数百万人，但在医生，志愿者，全球机构，地方政府和公民社会的共同努力下，这些疾病被驯服了，而如今在减少童工数量方面也需要类似的合作。


The first place to start is targeting industries where child labor is present, such as agriculture.	第一个着手点是锁定那些雇用童工的行业，如农业。


In addition to strong legal frameworks, robust accountability mechanisms must be established to guarantee that child labor is not used in supply chains.	除了强有力的法律框架之外，还必须建立健全的问责机制，以保证童工不被纳入供应链生产环节。


I have found that with the right incentives, businesses and consumers can become partners in eradicating child labor.	我发现正确的激励措施可以让企业和消费者成为消灭童工的合作伙伴。


One example of this collaboration emerged from the carpet industry in South Asia, where children were being mercilessly exploited.	这种合作的其中一个例子来自于无情剥削当地儿童的南亚地区地毯编织业。


To force change, we launched a movement to educate consumers in the West to compel carpet factory owners to behave responsibly.	为了推行改革，我们发起了一项运动去教育西方的消费者，让他们迫使地毯厂老板负责任地行事。


This led to the creation of a label, GoodWeave, which certifies that no child has been put to work manufacturing the product.	为此还创设了一张名为“善织（GoodWeave）”的标签，用以证明在产品生产制造过程中没有使用童工。


Since the label was launched more than 20 years ago, child labor in the region’s carpet industry has plummeted, from roughly one million to about 200,000.	自从二十多年前推出这个标签以来，该地区地毯编制业的童工数量从100万骤降到了20万左右。


Programs like these are helpful, but the most important changes must come from international efforts led by the United Nations.	类似这样的计划是有帮助的，但最重要的变化必须来自于联合国领导下的国际努力。


Ending the vicious circle of child labor, illiteracy, and poverty will require inter-governmental agencies to come together around each of the Sustainable Development Goals that directly affect children.	结束童工，文盲和贫穷的恶性循环需要各个跨政府机构围绕直接影响儿童的每个可持续发展目标共同合作。 其中包括目标8，终结强迫劳动，现代奴隶制，人口贩卖和童工行为；


These include Goal 8, ending forced labor, modern slavery, trafficking, and child labor; Goal 4, ensuring education for all; Goal 3, providing universal access to healthcare; and Goal 16, stopping all forms of violence against children.	目标3，普及医疗保健； 目标16，制止一切形式的暴力侵害儿童行为。


To succeed, UN Secretary-General António Guterres will need to channel more resources toward improving children’s lives.	如果要取得成功，联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯（António Guterres）将需要投入更多的资源来改善儿童的生活。


His first course of action should be to call a meeting with the heads of UN agencies and international organizations, as well as world leaders, to create an agenda for concerted and coordinated efforts to protect young people everywhere.	他的第一个行动方针应该是与联合国机构，国际组织负责人以及世界领导人召开会议，制定一个协调一致共同努力的议程以保护世界各地的年轻人。


At the end of the day, only political will can disrupt the grim calculus of child labor.	最终，只有政治意愿才能打破童工的残酷算计。


We cannot build a more peaceful, sustainable world without ensuring the freedom, safety, and education of every child.	如果无法确保每个孩子的自由，安全和教育，我们就不能建设一个更和平，更可持续的世界。


A life of work robs children of all three.	而童工制度恰恰剥夺了孩子的这三点权利。


As I ponder the way forward, I cannot forget a young girl I met in Brazil, whose small hands were horribly injured and bleeding from plucking oranges.	当我思考前进的道路时，总是无法忘怀自己在巴西遇到的一个年轻女孩，她的小手因为采摘橙子而严重受伤流血。


She asked me a simple question, to which I did not have an answer: “How can the world enjoy the juice from these oranges when children like me have to shed their blood to pluck them?”	她问了我一个我无法回答的简单问题：“世界上的人们怎么忍心去享用我这样的孩子流血采摘下来的橙子所制成的橙汁呢？


That is a question we all must ask ourselves, too.	这个问题，值得我们每个人去扪心自问。


The Return of the Newspaper	报纸归来


BANGKOK – Social media are no longer the new kid on the block, but in 2016, platforms like Twitter and Facebook looked poised to nudge traditional newspapers into obsolescence.	曼谷—社交媒体已不再是“新鲜人”，但在2016年，Twitter和Facebook等平台似乎准备将传统报纸扔进故纸堆中。


Following President Donald Trump’s victory in the United States, it seemed that the mainstream media had not only lost the plot, but had also lost their relevance.	特朗普成为美国总统后，主流媒体不但图谋破产，连重要性也失去了。


Trump led the multi-pronged attack on traditional news media, and newspapers in particular.	特朗普对传统新闻媒体发动了多方位打击，报纸首当其冲。


But many members of the press were also quick to declare that their own character limit had been reached.	但许多新闻界人士也很快宣称他们已经达到了自身的角色极限。


Accused of being elitist and out of sync with readers, newspapers’ reactions ranged from self-flagellation to repentance for the election result.	报纸被批精英做派，脱离读者，而它们的反应则是自我鞭挞和为选举结果而忏悔兼有之。


Flummoxed by the clobbering from all sides, pundits who could not get the Trump election right prophesied that declining sales, falling readership, and flagging credibility heralded the demise of the newspaper, as we have known it.	没能正确预测特朗普胜选的专家被来自各方的抨击冲昏了头脑，他们预言销量的下降、阅读量的减少以及岌岌可危的信誉预示着报纸的消亡——这已经是众所周知的了。


But more than one year later, it is clear that Trump’s victory did not mean any such thing.	但一年多后，现任特朗普的胜利并没有带来这些东西。


On the contrary, his ascendancy has made the newspaper business more relevant than ever.	相反，他的得势让报纸业务变得比以往更加重要。


The most remarkable media story of 2017 may have been how Trump inadvertently made newspapers great again.	2017年最引人瞩目的媒体故事也许是特朗普如何无心插柳地让报纸重新伟大。


Newspapers achieved this remarkable turnaround by doing what they do best: investigative journalism and breaking stories.	报纸通过它们最擅长的事情实现了这一引人瞩目的逆转：调查报道和突发新闻。


Since November 2016, and particularly since Trump’s inauguration in January last year, newspapers have led with stories ranging from conflicts of interest involving Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to evidence that the president’s former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, met with former Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.	2016年11月以来，特别是去年1月特朗普发表就职演说之后，报纸领衔报道了包括特朗普女婿贾雷德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）在内的利益冲突、总统前国家安全顾问迈克尔·弗林（Michael Flynn）与俄罗斯前驻美大使谢尔盖·基斯利亚克（Sergey Kislyak）会面的证据等消息。


These tales of political intrigue competed for attention with lurid allegations of sexual misconduct by Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, US Senate candidate Roy Moore, and other powerful men.	这些政治阴谋报道与耸人听闻的指控——好莱坞制片人哈维·温斯坦（Harvey Weinstein）、美国参议员候选人罗伊·摩尔（Roy Moore）和其他权势人物的性骚扰——争夺眼球。


And the pummeling of Trump with inconvenient facts has not been limited to Russia’s meddling in the election.	而令特朗普坐立不安的事实攻击也不仅限于俄罗斯对总统竞选的操纵。


It is important to remember that newspapers’ investments in rapid-response investigative teams, long-form stories, and data-driven journalism are possible only because more people are paying for their news, especially through digital subscriptions.	报纸投入重金于快速响应调查团队、长篇报道、数据推动的新闻，这只有在更多人掏钱购买它们的新闻（特别是通过数字订阅）的情况下才有可能发生。 记住这一点很重要。


Millennials in the West, dismayed by the surge in “fake news,” are helping reverse declining circulations in major markets.	西方的千禧一代不满于“假新闻”的泛滥，帮助抵御住了主要市场的订阅量下降。