It is also possible that language will be found in future bond issues that replaces the pari passu clause but provides sufficient assurance to bondholders to let the market function much as it did until the current ruling.	也有可能在未来的债券发行中会有特定语句去取代平等对待条款，但也能为债券持有者提供足够的保障来让市场得以像当前判决之前那样运行。


Until the euro crisis, it was generally believed that problems servicing sovereign debt occurred only in emerging markets and the least developed countries.	在欧元危机之前，人们相信与主权债务有关的问题只会出现在新兴市场国家或者最不发达国家身上。


The US Supreme Court’s decision on Argentina adds a new wrinkle, and may well further increase the risk attached to holding sovereign debt – and this to the cost of issuing it.	美国最高法院的阿根廷案决议却增添了一道伤痕，并将进一步增加与持有主权债务相关的风险——以及发行这类债券的成本。


Families of the Future	未来的家庭


WASHINGTON, DC – It is graduation season in many countries, a time when classes of bright and fortunate young people don their caps and gowns, receive their diplomas, and hear advice from their elders.	华盛顿特区——现在正是很多国家的毕业季，聪明而幸运的年轻人身穿学士袍头戴学士帽领取毕业证，并听取长辈的建议。


Some commencement speakers focus on the graduates’ accomplishments; others emphasize the career-related challenges that lie ahead.	有些典礼发言者重点褒奖毕业生的成就;还有些重点强调今后的职业挑战。


But there is another critical aspect to success and happiness that is often overlooked during these garlanded celebrations of academic achievement: family.	但人人往往在头戴花环庆贺学业成就时忽略了家庭——幸福和成功的另一个重要方面。


In fact, these ceremonies are about the graduates’ families – that is, those who have loved and supported them, regardless of their biological connection – as much as they are about the graduates themselves.	其实，上述庆典仪式既关乎毕业生又关乎毕业生的家庭——也就是那些深爱和支持他们的家人，不管他们之间是否真的拥有血缘关系。


Whatever each family’s experience, the result has been a child reaching a level of education of which many people can only dream.	无论每个家庭经历了什么，结果是他们的孩子达到了只能存在于很多人梦想中的教育程度。


Beyond noting and appreciating what their families have done for them, graduates must consider the kind of family that they want to nurture.	除了关注并感谢家人对他们的培养，毕业生还必须思考他们想建立什么样的家庭。


And here they have no choice but to reflect on gender roles and relations.	因此他们别无选择，必须思考两性的角色和关系。


Given the vastly different expectations and experiences of men and women – depending, of course, on the cultural context – the questions that they must ask themselves vary considerably.	鉴于不同文化对男性和女性截然不同的期望和体验，他们要问的问题也有很大不同。


The question of how to balance work and family, typically posed to young women, is actually a critical consideration for young men as well.	年轻女性往往面对平衡工作和家庭关系的问题其实也是年轻男性需要考虑的因素。


The traditional male role as “provider” has often led work to take precedence over time spent with family.	传统男性“养家糊口”的角色往往导致工作比和家人待在一起重要。


Indeed, in reflecting on their childhoods, many graduates may lament that their fathers spent too little time at home, or were less nurturing than they could have been.	事实上，回首童年，很多毕业生或许会抱怨父亲待在家里的时间太少，而他们本来可以给予家庭更多的关注。


Men must determine how to develop the caring side of their personality, in addition to the competitive side that will enable them to advance their careers.	除发展个性中勇于竞争的一面，从而在事业上稳步发展之外，男性必须决定如何发掘自己个性中的关爱因素。


They must aim to love and give fully, not only as fathers, but also as sons, husbands, brothers, uncles, and even friends.	他们必须学会全身心地关爱和付出，扮演好父亲、儿子、丈夫、兄弟、叔叔甚至是朋友的角色。


To this end, they should ask their own fathers and grandfathers what they wish they had done differently – and plan accordingly.	为此他们应当询问自己的父亲和祖父他们希望当时做出哪些改变——并且据此制定计划。


Instead of waiting for challenges to arise, young men should begin establishing their priorities now.	与其坐等挑战出现，年轻人应当现在就开始确定自己的优先事项。


How can they ensure that their relationship with their future partner is equal?	他们怎样确保与未来的伴侣建立平等关系？


How will they adapt to enable their partner to fulfill his or her career aspirations?	他们要如何调整，才能让伴侣实现他或者她的职业理想？


Will they be willing to move for their partner’s job?	他们是否愿意为伴侣的工作搬家？


Would they be prepared to stop working or reduce their workload, in order to care for a child or parent?	他们是否愿意放弃工作或减少工作量，以便更好地照顾孩子或父母？


Through all of this, men should remember that, by adopting a new approach, they are not abandoning their roles as providers.	通过这一切男性应当记住，采用新方法并不等于他们放弃了家庭支柱的角色。


After all, providing care is every bit as important as providing cash.	归根结底，提供父爱与提供金钱同样重要。


The reward is the close relationship with their children that women have traditionally enjoyed.	他们得到的回报是与子女间建立起传统上只有女性才有的亲密关系。


Women, too, must think carefully about the future that they would find most fulfilling.	女性也必须认真思考她们眼中最满意的未来。


For many women, the challenge is abandoning the assumption that their work/family balance will have to tip in favor of family, that it is they who will have to sacrifice their careers.	对许多女性而言，挑战在于放弃其工作/家庭平衡必须向家庭倾斜的假设，也就是她们必须牺牲自己的事业来成全家庭。


Of course, many women might choose to emphasize family (as would many men).	当然，许多女性会自愿选择把家庭作为重点（很多男性也是）。


The point is the choice: the choice of how much energy to devote to one’s home, the choice of a career based on passion, and the choice of a genuinely equal partner.	关键在于选择权：选择将多少精力投入到家庭方面，以兴趣爱好为基础来选择事业，以及选择真正平等的终身伴侣。


Upholding an equal partnership of caregivers and breadwinners will require compromises on both sides.	实现照顾家庭和经济支柱间平等的合作关系需要双方都做出让步。


A woman with great career ambitions should be able to find a partner who is willing to slow down or stop working to support her, just as a man should.	有事业心的女性应当寻找一位愿意放慢脚步或放弃工作来支持她的伴侣，男人也是一样。


But bucking gender roles works both ways.	但抗拒性别角色是双向的。


Indeed, for such a dynamic to work, the woman must recalibrate her expectations of her spouse.	事实上，这样的机制要想发挥作用，女性必须调整她对配偶的期望。


If she wants to build a family with a man, she must not become caught up in traditional perceptions of masculinity.	如果她想与男性建立家庭，她不能让传统观念中阳刚局限她的思想。


If she is uncomfortable, say, out-earning her husband, she is limiting both partners.	如果她对挣得比配偶多感到不适应，那么她就局限了男女双方。


Simply put, the kind of support that young women’s fathers and grandfathers probably offered to their mothers and grandmothers is not the only kind of support a woman can or should expect from her partner.	简言之，年轻女性的父亲和祖父可以为她们的母亲和祖母提��的那种支持并不是女性可以而且应当从伴侣那里得到的唯一支助。


Her role should be determined not by old-fashioned rules, but by her individual strengths and ambitions.	决定她作用的不应是某种老式的规则，而是她自身的优势和志向。


And her partner should have the confidence and competence to encourage her to fulfill her potential.	她的伴侣应当有信心和能力鼓励她发挥潜力。


Finally, graduation does not mean that the family’s job is complete.	最后，毕业并不意味着家庭的工作就完成了。


Parents and grandparents must continue to play a critical role in reshaping expectations – or at least supporting the choices that their children and grandchildren make.	父母和祖父母必须继续在重塑预期方面发挥关键作用——或者至少支持他们的子女和孙辈做出的选择。


This means accepting the decision of a son or grandson not to use his hard-earned university degree to become the primary breadwinner in his future household. And it means understanding that what a daughter or granddaughter needs may not be a traditional “provider,” but a partner who makes career sacrifices to enable her to advance hers.	这其中包括接受儿子或孙子决定不用来之不易的大学学位成为日后家庭主要的经济支柱，还包括理解女儿或孙女所要的可能不是一个传统意义上的“经济支柱”，而是一个愿意牺牲自身事业推动她事业发展的丈夫。


Graduation is a day of ending and beginning.	毕业既是开始也是结束。


It is a day for young people to recall the sacrifices that their families have made for them, and consider the kinds of sacrifices they will make for their families.	年轻人应当记住家人为自己做出的牺牲，并认真思考他们愿意为自己的家庭做些什么。


And it is a day to recognize that, if family comes first, work does not come second; rather, life comes together.	毕业当前他们还应当认识到，把家庭放在首位并不意味着工作就是从属； 相反，生活其实是各种因素的融合。


Bringing the Iran Deal Back Home	带着伊朗协议回家


WASHINGTON, DC – The United States government’s initial statements on the “first-step agreement on Iran’s nuclear program” have been focused, above all, on the great deal that the US and the West have gotten.	华盛顿—美国政府关于“伊朗核计划初步协议”的最初说法首先强调的是这是美国和西方所获得的伟大协议。


Iran has agreed to halt enrichment of uranium above 5% purity; neutralize its stockpile of uranium enriched to near 20% purity; stop building its stockpile of 3.5% enriched uranium; forswear “next generation centrifuges”; shut down its plutonium reactor; and allow extensive new inspections of its nuclear facilities.	伊朗同意暂停5%以上浓度的核浓缩活动，封存浓度近20%的铀，停止囤积浓度为3. 5%的铀，放弃“下一代离心机”，关闭其钚反应堆，并允许对其核设施进行严格的新检查。


In return, Iran will get “limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible relief” from international sanctions.	作为回报，伊朗将获得对其国际制裁的“有限的、暂时的、有目标的、可撤销的放松”。


The agreement covers only the next six months, during which both sides will try to reach a final comprehensive agreement.	这一协议只在未来六个月有效，在此期间，双方将试图达成最后的全面协议。


For now, as President Barack Obama put it, the burden remains, from the US point of view, “on Iran to prove to the world that its nuclear program will be exclusively for peaceful purposes.”	至于现在，正如美国总统奥巴马所说，从美国的立场看，负担仍“在于要想世界证明其核计划只用和平目的”。


Framing the issue this way reflects the need to sell even a limited, temporary deal to a skeptical US Congress.	将这一问题如此定性反映了需要向狐疑的国会兜售的方案甚至会更加有限、更加临时性。


Israel’s manifest displeasure with the entire negotiating process, which Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has emphasized to anyone who will listen over the past three months, reverberates loudly among Israel’s many congressional friends.	以色列对整个谈判过程非常不满，在过去3个月中，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡一直在表示这个观点，并在国会亲以色列派中引起了强烈的回响。


Indeed, Israel’s stance bolsters the desire of Obama’s Republican opponents to paint him as weak and naïve in negotiating with Iran, a country that still describes the US as “the great Satan.”	事实上，以色列的立场助长了奥巴马的共和党反对者指责他在对伊朗这个仍然将美国描述为“大恶魔”的国家的谈判中显得软弱而天真。


Both Republicans and Democrats are threatening to pass a new round of tough sanctions against Iran in December.	共和党和民主党均威胁要在12月通过针对伊朗的新一轮严厉制裁。


Thus, Obama must focus as much on pushing back against domestic hardliners as on taking a hard line with Iranian negotiators.	因此，奥巴马必须花亚于在伊朗谈判中采取强硬立场的力气“搞掂”国内强硬派。


This is hardly surprising.	这并不令人奇怪。


One hopes that the Iranian government’s announcement to its own people reads roughly the same, in reverse, focusing on the important concessions that Iranian negotiators have won.	你完全可以估计伊朗政府向其人民说的话也同样强硬，集中强调伊朗谈判者所赢得的让步。


That includes suspension of international sanctions on Iran’s exports of oil, gold, and cars, which could yield $1.5 billion in revenue; unfreezing $4.2 billion in revenue from oil sales; and releasing tuition-assistance payments from the Iranian government to Iranian students enrolled abroad.	这些让步包括暂停针对伊朗的石油、黄金和汽车出口制裁（伊朗将因此每年增加15亿美元收入），解冻石油销售的42亿美元收入，并放松伊朗政府对伊朗海外留学生的学费补助。


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani needs to marshal support for the deal just as much as Obama does, above all by reducing inflation and getting his country’s economy moving again.	一如奥巴马，伊朗总统鲁哈尼也需要引导对和协议的支持，首要任务是抑制通胀、让伊朗经济重新向前。


If domestic tensions, above all within Iran’s restive middle class, ease as a result, the government will receive the credit, while the Iranian Republican Guard and other hardliners will be weakened.	如果伊朗国内紧张局面（主要来自伊朗难以驾驭的中产阶级）能够有所缓和，伊朗政府就能得到信用，而伊朗国民卫队（Iranian Republican Guard）和其他强硬派也将有所削弱。


The West had better hope that the Iranian narrative proves true, because the political space for any meaningful diplomatic agreement – both the desire for a deal and the room to achieve it – is created at home.	西方最好寄希望于伊朗的说辞能得到兑现，因为任何有意义的外交协议的政治空间——既包括达成协议的愿望，也包括实现协议的空间——都在于国内。


This is particularly true when a new government comes to power with promises of improving the economy.	尤其是考虑到伊朗新政府是带着振兴经济的承诺问鼎权力的。


Rouhani can undercut hardliners who would seek to block any ultimate deal only if the Iranian population both experiences economic relief and attributes it to his administration.	鲁哈尼只有在伊朗人民获得经济上的缓解并将这归��于他的政府时才能战胜寻求阻挠一切最终协议的强硬派。


The true test of this interim agreement, therefore, is whether both sides can secure the domestic space to continue negotiating.	因此，对于这一过渡协议的真正考验是双方能否确保继续谈判的国内空间。


The stakes have never been higher – and not only because of the very real and dangerous geopolitical consequences of an Iranian bomb.	兹事体大——不仅是因为伊朗核弹所能引起的实打实的危险的地缘政治后果。


As Obama put it, “If Iran seizes this opportunity, the Iranian people will benefit from rejoining the international community, and we can begin to chip away at the mistrust between our two nations.	正如奥巴马所说，“如果伊朗抓住这一机会，伊朗人民就能从重新回到国际社会获益良多，而我们也可以开始消弭存在于我们两国之间的不信任。


This would provide Iran with a dignified path to forge a new beginning with the wider world based on mutual respect.”	伊朗将获得一条体面的道路，以互相尊重为基础重新开始与世界打交道。 ”


Let us imagine, just for a moment, what the Middle East and Central Asia could look like if the US and Iran could once again talk to each other.	我们可以暂时地想象一下，如果美国和伊朗可以再一次互相对话，中东和中亚会怎样。


As we saw briefly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the drug trade from Afghanistan could be sharply curtailed.	正如我们在2001年9月11日恐怖袭击后所短暂地看到的，来自阿富汗的毒品交易大幅下降。


Moreover, a regional agreement involving Iran, India, Pakistan, Russia, China, Turkey, the European Union, and the US would become much more likely, providing the framework for security and economic growth that diplomats from Henry Kissinger to the late Richard Holbrooke always claimed would be necessary for lasting peace in Afghanistan.	此外，达成包括伊朗、印度、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯、中国、土耳其、欧盟和美国在内的地区安全协议的可能性大大增加，为安全和经济增长——从基辛格到已故的霍尔布鲁克（Richard Holbrooke）在内的外交官一直认为这是维持阿富汗和平之必须——提供了框架。


Perhaps most important, a peace settlement in Syria would be much more likely – and more likely to endure – if the US could talk to Iran, which has far more leverage with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime than Russia does.	也许更重要的是，如果美国能够与伊朗展开谈判，达成叙利亚问题和平协议的可能性也会大大增加——伊朗对叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的作用远大于俄罗斯。


After all, it was fighters from Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, who turned the tide of battle decisively against the opposition this past summer.	毕竟，是伊朗的黎巴嫩代理人——真主党武装力量在去年夏天决定性地扭转了与反对派斗争的形势。


Iran has long made clear that it wants to resume its historic position as a major regional – and indeed global – power, an ambition that can only grow stronger as it watches Turkey’s geopolitical stature rise.	伊朗早就明确地表示它希望重新获得作为地区——事实上是全球——主要大国的历史低位，而在看到土耳其地缘政治地位上升后，伊朗的这一雄心越发高涨了。


Iran and Turkey, after all, are the 17th and 18th largest countries in the world by population, respectively, with sophisticated elites and illustrious and ancient pasts.	毕竟，伊朗和土耳其分别是17和18世纪世界上人口最多的国家，拥有成熟的精英阶层和辉煌悠久的历史。


The ultimate winner in the interim agreement with Iran is the cause of diplomacy itself.	对伊过渡协议的最终赢家是外交进程本身。


US Secretary of State John Kerry, EU High Representative Catherine Ashton, and the other parties to the talks – all supported by able teams of diplomats – hammered out the deal’s details over months, staying at the table, compromising, holding firm, and managing the expectations of multiple players (including the press).	美国国务卿克里、欧盟高级代表阿什顿（Catherine Ashton）和其他谈判各方——都是能力卓著的外交官团队——花几个月的时间才敲定了协议的细节、让协议来到谈判桌、做出让步、掌控局面，并协调多方（包括媒体）的期望。


The Obama administration committed itself to global leadership through civilian rather than military power.	奥巴马政府本身也致力于通过民事而非军事实力充当全球领导。


That is what it takes.	这就是伊朗核谈判的意义。


Obama Versus the Islamic State	奥巴马对阵“伊斯兰国”


WASHINGTON, DC – US President Barack Obama has laid out a detailed strategy for how his administration plans to combat the Islamic State, which controls a substantial portion of Syria and Iraq.	华盛顿——美国总统奥巴马已经制订了一份美政府打击控制叙利亚和伊拉克大片领土的“伊斯兰国”的详细战略计划。


Though I have been harshly critical of Obama’s policy toward Syria for two and a half years, his new strategy reflects a mature and coherent foreign policy – albeit one that does not fully live up to his proclaimed values.	虽然在过去两年半的时间里我一直在严厉批评奥巴马的叙利亚政策，但这项新的战略政策既成熟又连贯——虽然在某些方面与他一直公开宣扬的价值观有冲突。


That omission may yet defeat his plan.	这一点疏忽仍然可能打乱他的整个计划。


Obama’s approach is praiseworthy for three reasons.	奥巴马做法值得称道的原因有三。


First, it combines force and diplomacy.	首先，它将武力和外交融合在一起。


Second, it attaches careful conditions to the type and scope of American military action.	其次，它为美国军事行动的种类和范围附加了精心设计的条件。


Third, it ties the fate of these efforts to the existence and effectiveness of a broad Middle East coalition, making clear that though the United States is prepared to lead, it cannot and will not assume the role of global policeman.	第三，它把行动的命运和大中东联盟的建立及其有效性联系在一起，向世人表明美国虽然愿意发挥领导作用，但既不能也不会扮演全球警察。


In the Middle East game of thrones, Obama is playing his hand as well as he can.	在中东的权力游戏中，奥巴马已经尽力而为。


He knows that a US-led military effort can significantly weaken the Islamic State, but that only a combined military-political effort can defeat it.	他知道美国领导的军事行动可以显著削弱“伊斯兰国”的势力，但只有开展联合军事政治行动才能彻底击败它。


He created political leverage for himself by drawing a clear line, announcing that the US would “expand our efforts beyond protecting our own people and humanitarian missions” only together with the newly-formed Iraqi government.	他通过明确界限赢得了政治筹码，对外宣称只有新成立的伊拉克政府加入美国才会“不止保护本国民众和执行人道主义任务”。


If that government makes good on its promises of political inclusion, the US will help it get its country back; if not, not.	如果伊政府兑现其政治包容的承诺，美国将帮助它赢回国家； 否则美国将不会这样做。


Equally important, but less evident, is the leverage that this position provides with respect to Iran.	略显隐晦但却同样重要的是上述立场对伊朗的影响。


Obama never mentioned Iran during his speech; but commentators have speculated about whether his strategy gives Iran greater leverage over the US, on the theory that Iranian-backed fighters are critical to the success on the ground in the fight against the Islamic State.	奥巴马演讲中并未提及伊朗； 但评论人士却在猜测这项策略是否扩大了伊朗对美国的影响，因为伊朗支持的战士将是打击“伊斯兰国”地面行动能否成功的关键因素。


But Iraq’s Shia government is one of Iran’s major strategic anchors in the region; before the US began airstrikes against the Islamic State, it was far from certain that the Iraqi government would survive.	但伊拉克的什叶派政府是伊朗在该地区的重要战略稳定力量； 在美国开始对“伊斯兰国”进行空袭之前，伊拉克政府能否劫后余生还很难讲。


Iran needs US airpower at least as much as the US needs Iranian-backed ground troops.	伊朗像美国需要伊朗的地面部队一样需要美国的空中力量。


The US emphasis on a regional coalition to fight the Islamic State is also deft diplomacy.	美国强调建立反“伊斯兰国”地区联盟同样也是灵活的外交政策。


Secretary of State John Kerry has made it clear that for now Iran is not a welcome member.	国务卿约翰·克里已明确表示目前不欢迎伊朗加入。


Iran, without which the coalition essentially becomes a Sunni front, can have a place at the table – and play a large and overt role in resolving the Syrian civil war – but only if it is willing to reach a deal to rein in its nuclear program.	但没有伊朗的联盟实际已成为逊尼派阵线，伊朗本应参与谈判并在平息叙利亚内战中发挥更显著的作用。 但这一切的前提是伊朗愿意签署协议控制其核计划。


There has never been a better time to do so.	这样好的时机可谓前所未有。


Where Obama’s strategy is weakest is in reaching ordinary people: the networked web of human relationships that transmits rage, hatred, and despair or hope, trust, and loyalty.	奥巴马政策最薄弱环节是面向普通民众：即传播愤怒、仇恨、绝望或希望、信任、忠诚的人际关系网络。


His doctrine that the US will use force to defend its “core interests,” but will mobilize others “to address broader challenges to international order,” is sound logic and good politics in a war-weary US.	他所提出的美国将动用武力捍卫其“核心利益”，但同时要动员他国“解决国际秩序更大挑战”的理念在厌战的美国不失为合理有效的政策。


But, as a Syrian tweeted to me, what the world hears Obama saying is that the US will use force to avenge the deaths of two American journalists, but will stand by while 200,000 Syrians are slaughtered.	但有位叙利亚人给我发了推特，指出世界对此的理解是美国将动用武力对两名美国记者之死进行报复，但却在200,000叙利亚人遭受屠杀时什么也不做。


Unless US military action is seen as actually protecting the lives and property of the Iraqi and Syrian people, the US will quickly lose the propaganda war to the Islamic state.	除非美国军事行动在民众看来是为保护伊拉克和叙利亚民众的生命财产安全，美国将迅速在对“伊斯兰国”的宣传攻势中败下阵来。


As many experts warn, the first time a drone strike kills a woman or child, a video of the scene and the funeral will be posted for the Muslim world to see.	正如许多专家所警告的那样，当无人机首次空袭炸死妇女或儿童，现场和葬礼的视频将被发到网上让整个穆斯林世界看到。


Even if that video does not actually increase support for the Islamic State, it will convince millions of Muslims that the US is up to its old military tricks: bombing for oil, or for Israel, or simply to crush all Muslims.	即便这样的视频不会实际增加对“伊斯兰国”的支持，但数百万穆斯林民众将因此���信美国又一次耍弄了已经用过无数次的军事技巧：为石油或为以色列轰炸，或者干脆就是为打击穆斯林民众。


Those anti-American attitudes, newly hardened once again, will make it much more difficult to get the necessary intelligence against the Islamic State on the ground and to deprive them of the support of other Sunni militias.	那些最近再次高涨的反美情绪将加大获取对抗“伊斯兰国”所需情报的难度，并使美国失去其他逊尼民间武装。


That will not just hurt the US in Syria and Iraq. It will shape popular views in other Arab states, limiting their governments’ ability to work with the US.	这不仅会损害美国在叙利亚和伊拉克的利益，它还将决定其他阿拉伯国家民众的看法，导致其政府不敢与美国合作。


Most damaging of all, a purely strategic justification for military action – in defense of core US interests – leaves no room to do what actually needs to be done in Syria.	最具破坏力的是军事行动纯粹的战略借口——捍卫美国的核心利益——根本完成不了在叙利亚需要完成的任务。


The only way to bring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the negotiating table is to weaken him and the Islamic State simultaneously.	迫使叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德重回谈判桌的唯一方法是同时削弱他和“伊斯兰国”的力量。


And the only legal or moral justification for striking his air force, ammunition dumps, or heavy weaponry is the international responsibility to protect his people from him – just as the US helped to protect the Yezidis from the Islamic State.	打击其空军、弹药库或重型武器装备的唯一合法或道义理由是保护民众免受其伤害的国际义务——就像美国协助保护雅兹迪人免受“伊斯兰国”的迫害一样。


For, contrary to Obama’s claim, the brutality of the Islamic State is not “unique.”	因为与奥巴马的说法不同，“伊斯兰国”的残忍并不“独特”。


Assad has killed more than 200,000 people, mostly civilians, in a conflict that started with his government’s torture of children.	阿萨德就曾在其政府因虐童引起的冲突中杀害过200,000人，其中多数是平民。


Simply talking about the responsibility to protect, as Obama once did, accompanied by even limited strikes – perhaps as punishment for Assad’s reported recent use of chlorine gas against civilians – would change the game quickly.	像奥巴马之前做过的那样只谈保护责任、配合更为有限的空袭——或许为惩戒阿萨德据称最近对平民使用氯气——将迅速改变现有状况。 伊朗会明白美国对叙利亚的限制并非没有期限；


Iran would understand that America’s restraint in Syria is not indefinite; Sunni governments could be shamed in the eyes of their own people for not doing more; and the Islamic State’s narrative of brutality would collide with a narrative of humanity.	逊尼派政府也会在国内民众眼中因坐视不理而蒙羞； “伊斯兰国”的残忍故事会与人道主义故事产生激烈的冲突。


The fate of peasants has a direct and important impact on that of kings.	农民的命运将对国王的命运产生直接而深远的影响。


Obama’s policy wavers between geopolitical calculations based on national interest and the rhetoric of universal values, of standing for “our common security and common humanity.”	奥巴马的政策在基于国家利益和普适价值观（即捍卫“我们共同的安全和人道”）的地缘政治考量中不停摇摆。


Making that rhetoric real would buy him the room for maneuver that is needed to pursue his policy’s geopolitical goals.	让空话成真能使他赢得空间，赢得实现其地缘政治目标的必要因素。


Post-Shutdown America	关门后的美国


WASHINGTON, DC – After 16 days of closed museums, half-empty federal buildings, unnaturally quiet streets, and tens of thousands of workers left in existential limbo, the lights are back on in Washington.	街上安静得不自然。 几万员工陷入了存在危机。


But, while the shutdown of the United States government, initiated by radical congressional Republicans seeking to block implementation of President Barack Obama’s health-care legislation, is over – at least for now – three enduring lessons have emerged.	如此过了16天后，光明又回到了华盛顿。 但是，由国会共和党激进分子阻挠总统奥巴马的医保立法导致的美国政府关门虽然结束了，仍有三个教训等待我们吸取。


First, the next time the eurozone crisis flares up, the US will simply have to bite its tongue; after all, the shutdown spectacle revealed pathologies no less severe than those that have characterized the European Union’s economic and political negotiations over the past five years.	首先，当下一次欧元区危机爆发时，美国得把紧口风； 毕竟，关门的场景所暴露出来的病症之严重一点都不亚于过去五年中欧盟经济和政治谈判所体现的。


Irresponsible behavior threatening the health of the global economy?	不负责任的行为威胁到全球经济的健康？


Check.	是的。


Political posturing and outlandish claims foreclosing any possibility of compromise?	政治故作姿态和奇谈怪论堵上了任何妥协之路？


Breathtaking brinkmanship and 11th-hour decision-making leaving all bystanders wondering whether this time the cart might in fact go over the cliff?	吓人的边缘政策和11个小时的决策过程，以至于所有旁观者都担心这一次列车真的要坠下悬崖了？


Few countries in recent years have been spared the pain of their domestic political spectacles being broadcast around the world.	近几年来，很少有国家能免于国内政治闹剧在全世界丢人现眼的尴尬。 英国伦敦两年前爆发了大规模骚乱；


The United Kingdom had mass riots in London just two summers ago; strikes and demonstrations have paralyzed Paris on a regular basis; Greece has a rising fascist party; Mexico City has been practically shut down by teachers occupying the central square; and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan resorted to violence in June to quell weeks of protests against his increasingly autocratic ways.	墨西哥城因为教师占领中央广场而陷入了实际关闭； 土耳其总理埃尔多安6月份以暴力手段镇压了持续了数周的反对其日益独裁的治国风格的游行。


Among non-democracies, China had the Bo Xilai scandal, which was worthy of a spy novel, with illicit affairs, rampant corruption, murder, and a senior police official’s dramatic quest for asylum in a US consulate.	在非民主国家，中国爆出了薄熙来丑闻，其故事足以写成一部间谍小说——包括了风流韵事、腐败猖獗、谋杀、高级警官戏剧性地寻求美国领事馆庇护等情节。


Against this backdrop, the US government shutdown looks a little different.	从这个角度看，美国政府关门也没什么不同。


Yes, it was a clear symptom of deep political dysfunction, stemming from the politicized demarcation of electoral districts and the distorting effects of America’s campaign-finance system.	是的，这显然是政治运转不良的症候，其源头是政治化的选区划分和美国政治献金制度带来的扭曲效应。


Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that the entire crisis played out according to constitutional rules.	尽管如此，值得注意的是，整个危机都是根据宪法规则展开的。


Indeed, as the deadline for raising the debt ceiling neared, Henry Aaron, a distinguished senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointed out that the US Constitution requires the president “to spend what Congress has instructed him to spend, to raise only those taxes Congress has authorized him to impose, and to borrow no more than Congress authorizes.”	事实上，随着债务上限提高期限的临近，布鲁金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）杰出高级研究员阿隆（Henry Aaron）指出美国宪法要求政府“花国会让他花的钱，征国会授权他征的税，借不多于国会授权的钱。


Honoring all three of those legal obligations simultaneously is impossible if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, but raising the debt ceiling without Congressional approval, though illegal and an impeachable offense, was the least-bad choice.	”如果国会拒绝提高债务上限，就不可能满足所有这三项法律义务，但在没有国会批准的情况下提高债务上限——虽然是不合法且可能被弹劾的过错——却是最不坏的选择。


Even in the face of deeper political polarization than the US has seen in many decades (and, in many places, a visceral hatred of the country’s first African-American president), Americans and their politicians understand that breaking the rules means dissolving the constitutional glue that holds the polity together.	尽管面临着美国几十年所未见的高度政治两极分化局面 （以及美国多地发自肺腑的对首位非洲裔总统的敌意），但美国人及其政客明白，破坏规则意味着破坏宪法粘合国体的作用。


This understanding means that the cure for the current dysfunction will be found at the ballot box rather than in the streets.	这一理解意味着当前僵局的解决方案将会来自选票箱而不是街头。


And it is this collective commitment to the law governing how political power can be exercised that is the essence of liberal democracy.	而这一对依法治理政治权力的集体承诺能够执行正是自由民主的本质。


But Americans are in no mood to celebrate.	但美国人没兴趣庆祝。


Indeed, the second conclusion to be drawn from the US government shutdown is the virtual disappearance of American triumphalism.	事实上，来自美国政府关门的第二个结论是美国必胜信念的实质消失。


Chest-thumping exceptionalism has given way to a more sober patriotism, in which ordinary citizens recognize the long-term trends eroding the promise of equal opportunity, particularly the shortcomings that beset the country’s health-care, education, and infrastructure systems.	口号震天的例外论让位给了更冷静的爱国主义，普通公民认为长期趋势正在损害机会平等的承诺，特别是困扰着美国医疗、教育和基础设施系统的缺陷。


The anger of Tea Party Republicans (like the anger of Occupy Wall Street protesters) reflects a sense that nothing but dramatic, even revolutionary, measures can change the system.	茶党共和党的愤怒（就像“占领华尔街”示威者的愤怒）反映的是一种观念——只有戏剧性甚至革命性的手段才能改变制度。


In response, however, more pragmatic voters are increasingly irate about political paralysis and their governing institutions’ inability to respond to the preferences of a clear majority of the population.	但是，作为回应，更务实的选民越来越恼怒于政治瘫痪以及他们的治理机构在应对显然是多数人口的偏好方面的无能。


In the midst of the shutdown, the Republican Party’s popular approval rating sank to barely a quarter of the national electorate, a historic low, while the approval rating for Congress as a whole stood at just 5%.	在政府关门期间，共和党全国选民支持率下降到四分之一，达到了历史最低点，而对全体国会的支持率只有5%。


The final lesson of the shutdown is that political systems of every kind benefit from the addition of women.	政府关门的最后一个教训是所有种类的政治制度因为更多女性的参与而受益。


Many commented on the critical role played by six women senators – Republicans and Democrats – in reaching the compromises needed to end the crisis.	许多人提到了六位女性参议员——既有共和党也有民主党——在达成结束危机所必须的妥协中所扮演的关键角色。


These women have maintained relationships with one another across the partisan divide, while those among their male colleagues have steadily deteriorated, giving way to competitive grandstanding and vituperation.	这些女性在党派分歧之中保持着彼此之间的关系，而他们的男同事之间的关系却在稳步恶化，逐渐演变为争相哗众取宠和互相谩骂。


Equally important, these women felt – and acted upon – the moral necessity of actually governing.	同样重要的是，这些女性感受到了实际治理的道德必要性，并据此行动。


In the words of Senator Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine who first put together the outlines of a deal and took it to the Senate floor, the shutdown “hurt all the small businesses” around Acadia National Park in her home state, “and that is plain wrong.”	用缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）的话说，政府关门对其缅因州阿卡迪亚国家公园（Acadia National Park ）周边“所有小企业都造成了伤害”，“这是完全错误的。 ”是她首先提出了和解协议纲要并送交参议院。


The world should note.	世界应该引起注意。


Women are not necessarily better than men at governing, but they often have different perspectives and habits of engagement that can be essential for cutting through the standoffs created by the need to defend male egos.	女性并不天生比男性更能治国，但她们通常拥有不同的视角和交际习惯，这对于打破捍卫男性自尊需要竖立起来的藩篱十分重要。


They are also often more focused on the plight of actual people than on the promotion of grand principles, preferring concrete progress to abstract victory.	她们通常也更关注人民的实际境况而不是坚持大原则，更喜欢形而下的进展而不是形而上的胜利。


From parliaments to peace negotiations, adding women improves outcomes.	从议会到和平谈判，增加女性角色能让结果更好。


The US government is back at work, for now.	眼下美国政府已经重新开张。


Negotiations for a real budget that all sides can live with are beginning.	关于所有各方都能接受的真正预算的谈判正在开始。


And assessments of how the shutdown will affect the Republican Party’s fortunes in the 2014 midterm elections are rife.	人多人都在评估政府关门对共和党2014年中期选举的影响。


But the country’s social and economic divisions will ultimately find political solutions, through elections and the efforts of millions of Americans to achieve fundamental reforms.	但美国的社会和经济分歧终究会找到政治解决方案，通过选举和千百万美国人的努力实现根本性改革。


As frustrating and embarrassing as the last several weeks have been, it could have been much worse.	最近几周令人沮丧和尴尬，但若不是在美国，局面有可能糟得多。


Xi’s Recipe	习近平的改革配方


WASHINGTON, DC – China’s government is cracking down hard on Western journalists, threatening not to renew visas for reporters from the New York Times and Bloomberg in retaliation for their reporting on the corruption of senior Chinese officials.	华盛顿——中国政府正严厉打击西方记者。 为报复纽约时报和彭博社记者对中国高官贪腐行为的报道，中国政府威胁不再为他们续签签证。


Times columnist Thomas Friedman recently penned an open letter to the Chinese government telling them that, because the top “cause of death of Chinese regimes in history is greed and corruption,” a free press is more likely to help than hurt.	泰晤士报专栏作家托马斯·弗里德曼不久前写了一封公开信致中国政府，指出因为“贪婪腐败是历史上中国政权灭亡的首要原因”，新闻自由更能帮助而不是伤害中国政府。


Anyone who holds freedom of the press and freedom of expression to be universal human rights will agree with Friedman’s position.	相信新闻自由和言论自由同属普世人权的人都会赞同弗里德曼的立场。


But, in China, politics – including the politics of rights – is always intertwined with economics.	但中国政治——包括权利政治，总是掺杂着经济因素。


Last month, President Xi Jinping announced a set of sweeping economic reforms at the Central Committee’s Third Plenum, setting forth his vision of “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”	上个月，习近平在中央委员会十一届三中全会上宣布了全套改革措施，提出了“实现中华民族伟大复兴” 的目标。


His 60-point plan included reforms of fiscal policy and the financial sector that would set market interest rates on loans and deposits, permit some private-investor participation in state-owned enterprises, increase the role of small and medium-size enterprises, loosen labor restrictions, and introduce property taxes to boost revenue for local authorities.	他的60点计划包括落实制定存贷款市场利率的财政政策及财政部门改革，允许私营投资者参与国有企业、活跃中小企业、放宽劳动力限制以及征收房产税增加地方政府收入。


This renewed embrace of the market, reminiscent of Deng Xiaoping’s original turn to capitalism in 1979, will be hard medicine for China’s entrenched business and government elites to swallow.	上述重新投入市场怀抱的政策让人联想起1979年邓小平最初那次资本主义转向，当时的政策令中国根深蒂固的企业及政府精英一直如骨鲠在喉。


If Xi’s administration is successful – a big if – its reforms may enable China to negotiate the necessary transition from an economy driven by exports and government investment to a more sustainable growth model based on domestic consumption.	如果习政府执政成功——这当中具有很大的不确定性——其改革或许可以帮助中国完成从出口驱动型经济和政府投资到以国内消费为基础的可持续增长模式的必要过渡。


The stakes are high.	其中涉及非常高的赌注。


A country that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the last two decades must now find a way to safeguard and gradually increase those gains while engineering the same miracle for the hundreds of millions still left behind.	这个过去二十年曾成功令亿万人脱贫的国家现在必须设法保护并逐步扩大这些成果，同时为依然贫困的亿万人口创造同样的奇迹。


The world has a significant economic, political, and moral interest in the success of China’s reform agenda.	中国改革计划成功将对世界产生难以估量的经济政治和道德影响。


In this context, it is important to understand that Xi’s economic reforms are only one ingredient of a carefully crafted cocktail.	在上述背景下，了解习的经济改革只是这杯精心调制鸡尾酒的成分之一非常重要。


The rest of the recipe includes two parts popular social reforms – an end to the one-child policy for many Chinese parents and the abolition of “reeducation through labor” – and one part political crackdown.	配方的其余部分包括两份颇受欢迎的社会改革——结束众多中国家长的一胎政策、废除“劳动教养”制度，以及一份政治镇压。


Increased censorship and intimidation of foreign journalists, together with the imprisonment of dissidents and tighter restrictions on dissent, are an effort to ensure that economic disruption does not give rise to political rebellion.	强化审查和恐吓外国记者，以及监禁并更严格限制持不同政见者都是为了确保经济混乱不会导致政治叛乱的后果。


To implement his ambitious reform agenda, Xi has taken several steps to consolidate his personal and bureaucratic power.	为推行雄心勃勃的改革计划，习近平采取了多项举措巩固其个人及官僚权力。


He has reduced the membership of the Politburo from nine to seven, making it easier to obtain agreement in a system designed to institutionalize collective leadership.	他把政治局委员从9人精简至7人，从而降低了制度化集体领导体制下达成共识的难度。


He has increased the power of the Central Committee, which he chairs. And he has created a new State Security Council.	他还扩大了由自己领导的中央委员会的权力，设立了新的国家安全委员会。


To understand how the State Security Council could serve Xi’s interest in centralizing power, consider the United States.	了解国家安全委员会如何满足习的集权需求可以参考美国的例子。


Without the National Security Council and the Domestic Policy Council, the US president would have no routine way to control and coordinate different bureaucracies.	没有国家安全委员会和国内政策委员会，美国总统就没有常规方法控制协调各式官僚机构。


White House staff working for the National Security Council call meetings at which officials from the State Department, Defense Department, Treasury, Justice Department, and other key agencies hash out their views on a given policy.	供职于国家安全委员会的白宫工作人员召集国务院、国防部、财政部，司法部及其他重要机构官员就特定政策发表意见。


But it is the president’s staff who guide the outcome and determines the next steps.	但引导结果走向及确定今后步骤的却是总统的手下。


Xi’s moves to strengthen his hand have helped to convince observers that he means business with the reform agenda.	习强化实力的举措让观察者确信他当真要推行改革计划。


Since the Third Plenum ended and the scope of Xi’s reforms has become clear, many China watchers have hailed him as the most transformative leader since Deng.	自十一届三中全会结束习的改革计划公诸于世以来，许多中国观察家都称赞他是邓小平以来最具变革精神的领导者。


Time will tell, but a key difference between 2014 and 1979 is that today the Chinese cocktail is spiked with fear.	时间会告诉我们答案，但2014年和1979年的关键区别是今天这杯中国鸡尾酒中掺杂着恐惧。


Evan Osnos, writing in The New Yorker, reports that two years ago, in the midst of the Arab uprisings, a senior official told a meeting in Beijing that if the Chinese government “waver[ed]” in the midst of social-media-fueled global dissidence, “the state could sink into the abyss.”	埃文·奥斯诺斯曾在《纽约客》撰文报导两年前阿拉伯起义期间，一名高官在北京一次会议上表示如果中国政府在社会媒体促成的全球持不同意见运动中“发生动摇”，“国家将会陷入到深渊之中。


Recently, Osnos writes, a high-level Chinese diplomat explained the threatened expulsion of New York Times and Bloomberg journalists on the grounds that “the Times and Bloomberg were seeking nothing short of removing the Communist Party from power, and that they must not be allowed to continue.”	”不久前奥斯诺斯报导一名中国高级外交官在解释政府威胁驱逐纽约时报和彭博社记者的理由时说“纽约时报和彭博社只想让共产党下台，因此不能允许他们继续这样做。 ”


That fear is one of the principal forces driving Xi’s reform agenda.	那种恐惧是驱动习改革计划的重要力量。


The Communist Party must keep the Chinese economy growing (even if more slowly), while fighting rampant corruption and responding to citizens’ demands.	共产党必须保持中国经济增长（即使增长相对缓慢），同时与猖獗的腐败现象斗争，响应民众的需求。


Chinese citizens cannot vote, but they can – and do – make their displeasure known, which places a premium on what Chinese bureaucrats call “stability maintenance.”	中国民众无权投票，但他们却能够表达自己的不满，这使得中国官僚所谓的“维稳”显得至关重要。


Will Dobson, author of The Dictator’s Learning Curve, describes the Chinese government as a technocracy whose legitimacy is founded on efficient problem-solving.	独裁者学习曲线的作者威尔·多布森形容中国政府的实质是专家政府，其合法性建立在有效的解决问题之上。


“When a regime’s legitimacy is derived from its performance,” he argues, “any crisis – and how the party responds to it – can raise existential questions about the regime’s right to rule.”	“当政权合法性与表现挂钩时，“他提出，“任何危机——以及政党所采取的对策——都可以演变成质疑其是否有权执政。 ”


China’s leaders apparently worry that Western-style investigative journalism inside China could trigger just such a crisis.	中国领导人显然担心在中国境内开展西式新闻调查可能会引发这样的危机。


In any case, they are taking no chances.	无论如何，他们都不会冒险这么做。


They are placing their faith in their ability to wash their own dirty laundry and drive economic, social, and political change from the top down.	他们相信自己可以处理好丑闻，自上而下地推动经济、社会和政治改革。


And they are less and less willing to play by Western rules.	他们越来越不愿意遵守西方的规则。


Germany Steps Up	德国站出来


WASHINGTON, DC – Since the start of his first administration, US President Barack Obama has repeated a simple mantra concerning other countries: “With power comes responsibility.”	华盛顿—自开始第一个任期以来，美国总统奥巴马一直在重复对其他国家的咒语：“责任与实力共存”。


France has demonstrated repeatedly that it understands and accepts this responsibility; Germany may now be following suit.	法国一再证明了它理解并承担了这一责任； 现在或许该轮到德国了。


Several weeks ago, German President Joachim Gauck’s opening address to the 50th annual Munich Security Conference reflected on the Federal Republic’s evolution over those five decades, a period that gave rise to “a good Germany, the best we have ever known.”	几周前，德国总统高克在第50届慕尼黑安全会议上发表开幕词，回顾了德意志联邦共和国在过去五十年中的历史，这个时期崛起了“一个好德国，一个锁门所知的最好的德国”。


And, because Germany benefits more than most countries from the current open, value-based international order, it has, Gauck said, a greater responsibility to defend and extend that order.	此外，德国比其他大部分国家更多地得益于当前开放的、基于价值的国际秩序，因此高克说，德国也有更大责任捍卫和扩大这一秩序。


Gauck’s speech reflected the thinking in an important new report, entitled New Power, New Responsibility, released by the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik and the German Marshall Fund of the United States.	高克的演讲反映了一篇重要新报告道中的思想。 这篇报告由政治和科学基金会（Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik）以及美国德国马歇尔基金会（German Marshall Fund of the United States），题目是《新大国、新责任》（New Power, New Responsibility）。


The report – the product of several months of debate within the German foreign-policy and security community – identifies Germany’s current values and interests as a commitment to “human dignity, freedom, democracy, the rule of law, and to an international order that is based on universal norms.”	报告产生于为期七个月的德国外交政策和安全界的内部讨论，认为德国的当前价值和利益是致力于“人类尊严、自由、民主、法治精神，以及基于普世规范的国际秩序”。


As Gauck proclaimed, Germany’s “overriding strategic objective” must be the “preservation and continued adaptation” of this order.	正如高克所指出的，德国的“最高战略目标”必须是“保护和持续调整”这一秩序。


To achieve this objective, Germany must become a “shaping power,” a state with the ability to solve problems and resolve conflicts affecting all or part of the international community.	为了实现这一目标，德国必须成为“有决定力的大国”（shaping power），成为一个有能力为部分甚至全体国际社会解决问题、消弭冲突的国家。


The traditional determinants of states’ power relative to other states – geography, demography, economic heft, and military might, coupled with the availability of resources and technological proficiency – remain important; but they are often insufficient to confer actual influence in international politics.	一国相对于其他国家的实力的传统维度——地理、人口、经济实力和军事实力——仍然很重要，但通常并不足以在国际政治中施加实际影响力。


A shaping power builds relationships and invests in institutions that allow it to work well with others and to create and mobilize “coalitions and networks of like-minded states.”	有决定力的大国构建关系、投资制度，从而使其能够与其他国家精诚合作并建立和动员“思维相近的国家的联盟和网络”。


As a shaping power with an enormous stake in preserving and extending the openness of the international system, Germany has a special responsibility to help integrate new global powers into that system.	作为在保护和扩展国际体系开放性上利益巨大的具有决定力的大国，德国有着帮助全球新大国融���这一体系的特殊责任。


Here is where things get interesting.	局面的要害之处正在于此。


Germany has long sought a seat on the United Nations Security Council, making common cause with Japan, Brazil, and India.	德国早就开始寻求联合国安理会的常任理事国席位，同样有这一目标的还有日本、巴西和印度。


But New Power, New Responsibility suggests a different path, arguing for the reform of the Security Council in a way that would merge the French and British seats into a permanent European seat in a “slightly enlarged circle of permanent members,” while also ensuring European representation among the non-permanent members.	但《新大国、新责任》指出了一条不同的路径，提出了新的安理会改革方案，将英国和法国的席位合并为永久的欧洲席位，从而“略微扩大常任理事国数量”，同时确保欧洲的非常任理事国数量。


Under this scenario, Germany would play a role in global peace and security through the European seat, as well as serving as a periodic rotating member.	根据这一情形，德国将通过欧洲席位扮演全球和平和安全方面的角色，同时也可以担任非常任理事国。


Moreover, Germany recognizes the need to consolidate Europe’s voting power and reduce the number of European seats in other global institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to make room for emerging powers.	此外，德国认为有必要整合欧洲在其他全球机构（如国际货币基金组织和世界银行）的投票权、减少其席位，以便为新兴大国创造空间。


This renewed commitment to a strong and united Europe is the second pillar of a twenty-first-century German foreign policy.	这一新的“强大而团结的欧洲”的承诺是二十一世纪德国外交政策的第二支柱。


New Power, New Responsibility calls for “deepening” the European Union through measures that would include democratizing EU financial decision-making by directly engaging national parliamentarians and exchanging tighter European fiscal constraints on member governments’ budgets for a European banking union, a eurozone budget, and Eurobonds.	《新大国、新责任》提出通过一系列措施“深化”欧盟，包括让国家议会直接参与其中，并对成员国政府施加更紧的欧洲财政约束，以此换取欧洲银行联盟欧盟、欧元区预算和欧元债券，从而实现金融决策民主化。


In foreign and security policy, New Power, New Responsibility proposes strengthening the role of the EU High Representative and the role of the European Action Service.	在外交和安全政策方面，《新大国、新责任》提出加强欧盟高级代表和欧洲行动局（European Action Service）的作用。


Current EU High Representative Catherine Ashton continues to prove the worth of EU foreign-policy institutions by, for example, brokering a remarkable peace between Serbia and Kosovo and playing a key role in nuclear negotiations with Iran.	现任欧盟高级代表凯瑟琳·阿什顿（Catherine Ashton）继续证明着欧盟外交政策机构的价值，比如，她牵线促成了塞尔维亚和科索沃之间的重要和平协议，在对伊朗核谈判方面也起到了关键作用。


The third surprise concerns the use of force.	第三个惊奇之处来自对武力的使用。


Gauck told Germans in no uncertain terms that they had to be willing to use force, at least as a last resort, and reproached those of his fellow citizens “who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world.”	高克以明确的口吻告诉德国人，他们必须准备好使用武力，至少将使用武力作为最后选择，并指责一些德国同胞“拿德国过去的罪行当借口偷懒或实现脱离世界的愿望。 ”


More controversially, Gauck proclaimed the need for Security Council authorization of any use of force, but also hinted at a Kosovo precedent for possible military intervention in Syria.	更具争议的是，高克提出任何武力行动都需要安理会的授权，但他也暗示科索沃可以作为军事干预叙利亚的先例。


As he put it, when the international community confronts a clear case for the use of force to protect a population from its own government, but the Security Council is divided, “the relationship between legality and legitimacy will continue to be awkward.”	他指出，当国际社会面临显而易见的局面，需要使用武力保护人民不受本国政府伤害，但联合国安理会又无法形成统一意见时，“合法性与合理性之间的关系就会成为阻碍因素。 ”


The participants in the deliberations that resulted in New Power, New Responsibility split on this question.	在审议《新大国、新责任》的观点时，在这一问题上形成了分歧。


Some argued for an absolute requirement of Security Council authorization, while others recognized an imperative to contemplate humanitarian intervention without such authorization in “very narrowly defined exceptional cases.”	一些人认为安理会授权是必不可少的绝对条件，也有人认为在没有授权的情况下出于权宜之计进行人道主义干预可以成为“严格定义的例外情形”。


US Secretary of State John Kerry also spoke at the Munich Security Conference.	美国国务卿克里也在慕尼黑安全会议上发表了讲话。


But, by not referring to Gauck’s speech, he missed an opportunity to underline the success of one of Obama’s key foreign-policy tenets: as the US steps back from its role as global policeman and focuses more on diplomacy than force, other countries must step up.	但是，他并没有提到高克的发言，因此也错失了一次强调奥巴马的一条关键外交政策原则大获成功的机会：随着美国不再充当世界警察、将更多的注意力转向外交而不是武力时，其他国家必须站出来。


Even more important, Kerry and Obama would do well to think hard about a key lesson embedded in Gauck’s speech and the report behind it.	更重要的是，克里和奥巴马可以深思高克的演讲及其背后的报告中所包含的一条关键教训。


Countries that want to retain power in a changing global order must learn to share it, which requires accepting and embracing the contours of a new world.	希望在变幻莫测的全球秩序中保持实力的国家必须学会分享它，而这又需要接受并拥抱新的世界格局。


The Obama administration should think hard about Security Council reform.	奥巴马政府应该仔细思考安理会改革问题。


It should signal a real willingness to replace an order that reflects the world of 1945 with one that reflects the world of 2015.	它必须释放实实在在的信号，表示愿意用反映2015年的世界的秩序取代反映1945年的世界的秩序。


That means supporting a greater global role for all powers that understand and accept real responsibility for maintaining global peace and security.	这意味着支持所有理解并接受维持全球和平与稳定的真实责任的大国扮演更重要的角色。


Stopping the Syria Contagion	遏制叙利亚传染病


WASHINGTON, DC – Syria’s civil war has become a wretchedly complicated problem.	华盛顿——叙利亚内战已经成为一个极其复杂的问题。


As the parties prepare to meet in Geneva for the second round of United Nations-sponsored peace talks, the government has launched vicious barrel-bomb attacks on Aleppo and other cities; more moderate Islamist rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army, are openly at war with Al Qaeda affiliates; and Al Qaeda-linked groups are now fighting among themselves.	由于各方即将在日内瓦举行第二轮由联合国发起的和平谈判，政府军已经对阿勒颇等城市发动了恶性炸弹袭击； 包括叙利亚自由军在内的温和派伊斯兰叛乱团体都在与基地组织分支机构公开作战；


Meanwhile, the war’s spillover effects are worsening.	此外，战争对别国的影响也越来越严重。 战斗加剧了地区不稳定局势；


The fighting has heightened instability in the region; US and European citizens are streaming into Syria to take up jihad; and there is a growing consensus that the post-World War I Middle East boundaries are coming undone.	美国和欧洲公民正涌入叙利亚参加圣战； 而且一战后中东边界正在解体的看法也越来越被人们所接受。


Indeed, the viability of Syria, a multi-ethnic state, is being threatened by multiple armed groups supported by external sponsors – Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, the United States, Turkey, France, and many private donors – who themselves have conflicting aims.	事实上，由外部势力支持的多个武装团体正在威胁叙利亚这个多民族国家的生存——伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、俄罗斯、美国、土耳其、法国和众多私人捐助者的目标都相互冲突。


Here are three ways to simplify the equation and maximize the chances that the parties to the Geneva II peace conference will be able to agree on more than the desirability of someday holding a Geneva III.	有三种方法可以简化事态，让第二次日内瓦和平会议的参与者不仅就召开第三次日内瓦会议达成共识。


First, the most important contribution that this conference can make to the possibility of a negotiated settlement and a political transition in Syria is to change the principal parties’ incentives.	首先，此次会议能为叙利亚谈判及政治过渡所做最主要的贡献是改变主要当事方的动机。


In the run-up to Geneva II, each party has sought to strengthen its hand at the negotiating table by killing as many adversaries and holding or regaining as much ground as possible.	在第二次日内瓦会议召开之前，各方都竭力通过多杀敌人和坚守或夺回阵地来巩固自己在谈判桌上的位置。


The task now for would-be peace brokers is to halt that dynamic by agreeing on criteria for participation in whatever elections will eventually be held, regardless of whether President Bashar al-Assad remains in power until then.	未来和平缔造者目前的任务是制止这样的趋势进一步发展，以及不管巴沙尔·阿萨德总统届时是否在任，制定最终选举的参选标准。


Those criteria must include the parties’ willingness to allow humanitarian aid to flow to all Syrian civilians under their control and an end to war crimes and crimes against humanity, including systematic targeting of medical personnel, starvation of populations under siege, and executions of war prisoners.	上述标准必须包括当事方允许人道主义援助流向控制区域的所有叙利亚民众、结束大面积袭击医务工作者、饿死被围困民众和处决战俘等战争及反人类罪行。


Here the UN must reaffirm its “responsibility to protect” doctrine, not as a justification for military intervention, but as a fundamental principle agreed by all countries: governments must protect their citizens.	联合国必须在此重申其“保护责任”原则，这样做不是为了军事干预寻找借口，而是强调政府对民众负有保护责任这项各国达成共识的基本原则。


If Assad’s Ba’ath party cannot uphold that responsibility, it forfeits its own legitimacy as a participant in any future government.	如果阿萨德的阿拉伯复兴社会党无法承担这样的责任，它就自动放弃��参与未来任何政府的合法理由。


Second, the international community must re-establish the basis for its engagement.	其次，国际社会必须重新奠定接触的基础。


When the Syrian conflict began, it was an internal matter, with UN involvement limited to humanitarian and refugee issues.	叙利亚冲突开始时还属于内部事务，联合国仅扮演人道主义和难民救援等角色。


But now the conflict has spread across the Middle East, destabilizing Lebanon and Jordan and threatening to fracture Iraq.	但现在冲突已蔓延至整个中东地区，导致黎巴嫩约旦动荡并有可能分裂伊拉克。


The UN Security Council is charged with addressing breaches or threats to international peace, a criterion that is now clearly met.	联合国安理会有责任惩罚违约者及消除国际和平威胁，目前这两项标准显然已经满足。


As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia thus has an obligation to act; it (and China) can no longer hide behind the argument that the UN should not be engaged in Syria’s internal affairs.	安理会常任理事国俄国因此有义务采取行动； 它（和中国）不能再用联合国不应介入叙利亚内政来充当借口。


At a time when the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi put Russia squarely on the international stage, the US and other Security Council members should plan a series of resolutions that confront the Kremlin with the choice of meeting its responsibility or applying its own leverage to bring the conflict to an end.	值此索契冬奥会使俄国成为国际焦点的重要时刻，美国和其他安理会成员国应当制定系列决议，正面要求克里姆林宫履行其职责或者施加影响结束冲突。


Finally, the single most important step that US President Barack Obama could take is to put the credible threat of force back on the table.	最后，恢复可靠的武力威胁是美国总统奥巴马可以采取的最重要步骤。


In three years of increasingly bloody conflict, the only diplomatic success was achieved when Assad believed that he faced US missile strikes.	在血腥程度不断升级的三年冲突中，阿萨德相信面临美国导弹袭击时取得了唯一的一次外交成功。


He suddenly saw the desirability of getting rid of his chemical weapons.	他突然认识到销毁化学武器的益处。


But most experts believe that military force is off the table.	但多数专家认为不可能进行军事打击。


The US public sharply rejected Obama’s planned missile strikes to punish Assad for the repeated use of chemical weapons, and a recent Pew poll indicates that a majority of Americans believe that the US “should mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own.”	美国公众坚决拒绝了奥巴马严惩阿萨德反复使用化学武器的导弹袭击计划，而且最近一次皮尤民调显示多数美国人认为“美国应该在国际上管好自己的事务，让其他国家依靠自己的力量，能做到什么程度就做到什么程度。 ”


Obama’s job, however, is to look beyond opinion polls, particularly when it comes to safeguarding national security.	尤其当涉及国家安全事务，奥巴马要做的是比民调更有眼光。


The US has withdrawn from Afghanistan and Iraq, but the gains so painfully won are being reversed.	美军已经撤出阿富汗和伊拉克，但付出惨重代价取得的胜利正在逐渐丧失。


Al Qaeda is back and is fighting for its own proto-state in western Iraq and eastern Syria, which is far closer to Europe and the US than the caves of Afghanistan.	基地组织重新趁虚而入，正在伊拉克西部和叙利亚东部组建他们自己的政府，正在酝酿的基地组织势力离欧洲和美国远比阿富汗山洞要近得多。


Perhaps Obama thinks that he or his successor can deal with that threat down the road.	或许奥巴马认为自己和继任者可以今后再处理这样的威胁。


If Al Qaeda operatives begin threatening the US from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, the US will just take them out with drones, as it has done in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen.	如果基地组织开始从伊拉克和叙利亚等伊斯兰国家对美国构成威胁，美国可以像在阿富汗、巴基斯坦和也门所做的那样用无人机把他们消灭掉。


But if he is willing to contemplate using force against Al Qaeda without international authorization in the future, why not use drones now to strengthen the moderate Syrian opposition and force Assad into serious negotiations?	但如果他愿意考虑将来在没有国际授权的情况下对基地组织使用武力，那为什么现在不能用无人机支持温和的叙利亚反对派，迫使阿萨德认真谈判？


The threat of cruise-missile strikes last September was enough to send Al Qaeda members in Syria scrambling for the hills.	去年9月发射巡航导弹的威胁足以让基地组织成员争相往山里逃。


A strike designed to destroy Assad’s air force and prevent him from dropping bombs full of nails on his people would concentrate his mind on a diplomatic solution.	旨在摧毁阿萨德空军并阻止他向民众投掷钉子炸弹的行动或许能把他的注意力集中到外交谈判上。


Obama should announce that the US is committed to a political solution in Syria, and that his government will do whatever it can to bring about such a solution through next week’s peace conference and follow-up action.	奥巴马应该宣布美国致力于政治解决叙利亚问题，他的政府将竭尽全力在下周和平会议及后续行动中找到这样的解决方案。


But if a ceasefire has not been achieved in the next three months, the US should work with regional organizations and all friends of the Syrian people to authorize a set of military strikes on Al Qaeda-linked forces and on the killing machine that Assad’s government has aimed at civilians.	但如果停火在未来三个月内一直未能实现，那么美国应该和区域组织及叙利亚人民的朋友一道授权打击基地相关势力和阿萨德政府针对平民的杀戮机器。


The Obama administration should make the case for this to the American people in terms of straightforward US security interests.	奥巴马政府应该向美国公众说明这直接关系到美国的安全利益。


After all, if Geneva II fails, Geneva III will not be about Syria alone.	毕竟，如果第二次日内瓦会议失败，第三次日内瓦会议就不会只涉及叙利亚问题。


It will be about how to end a war raging across the entire Middle East.	届时人们可能需要考虑如何结束中东战争。


World Cup America	世界杯美国


WASHINGTON, DC – Something changed – or perhaps was revealed – in the United States during the last month.	华盛顿—上个月，美国发生了一些事——或者说，有一些东西显露出来。


Many millions more Americans watched the World Cup soccer tournament in English and Spanish than ever before.	收看英语和西班牙语世界杯转播的美国人比以往多了好几百万。


True, with the World Cup’s end, many are arguing, as usual, that Americans pay attention only every four years – and only when the US is playing.	固然，世界杯和往常一样结束了，许多人指出美国人只不过是四年关注一次，并且只关注美国的比赛。


But this time something was different: Americans continued to watch even after the US team was eliminated.	但这次有所不同：美国人在美国队被淘汰后仍然在看世界杯。


Indeed, on a weekday afternoon in the middle of summer, nearly 15 million Americans tuned in to the Brazil-Germany match in the semifinal.	事实上，在仲夏的周末下午，近1,500万美国人将频道锁定在巴西与德国的半决赛。


That is more than the usual viewership for ESPN’s Monday Night Football, the biggest regular television draw for fans of American football.	这一数字超过了美式橄榄球球迷收看最多的电视节目——ESPN《周一橄榄球之夜》（Monday Night Football）的常规收视率。


Almost every young person at my organization, New America, found ways to watch the US games in the early rounds.	在我所在的组织——新美国（New America），几乎所有年轻人都设法收看美国队的小组赛。


My apartment mate explained that everyone in her office, in the US Department of Education, had used the excuse of a birthday party to watch the US-Germany match.	我的公寓室友说，在她美国教育部的办公室，所有人都借口生日派对翘班收看美国与德国的比赛。


On the Tuesday afternoon when the US played Belgium in the knockout round, every bar in Aspen, Colorado, was packed.	美国与比利时进行八分之一决赛的那个星期二下午，科罗拉多州阿斯彭（Aspen）的每一间酒吧都坐满了人。


Of course, Aspen is one of the country’s wealthiest communities, and perhaps not representative of the US as a whole.	当然，阿斯彭是美国最富的社区之一，或许并不能代表美国总体情况。


But US television showed an enormous crowd of fans in Kansas City following the US-Belgium match on a large outdoor screen.	但从电视屏幕上我们可以看到，在美国和比利时比赛期间，堪萨斯城露天巨幕电视周围聚集了大量人群。


It was not quite the equivalent of the final match between Italy and France in 2006, when virtually every small Italian town turned out to watch on the main square; but Americans all over the country spent the month ducking out of work and into sports bars.	2006年意大利和法国的决赛就没有出现这样的情景，当时，意大利几乎所有小镇都是万人空巷，大家聚集在广场看比赛； 而纵观美国，人们只不过是在下班后涌入体育酒吧。


America’s growing embrace of soccer reflects some important ways in which the US has “joined” the world.	美国人对足球热情日渐高涨反映了美国“加入”世界的某些重要方式。


For starters, both the US team and the US audience for soccer derive their growing strength from immigrants – many from countries where the sport is a national passion.	首先，美国队和美国足球观众受移民推动很大——其中许多移民来自全民热爱体育的国家。


For example, in Washington, DC, almost all taxi drivers are newcomers to America.	比如，在华盛顿，几乎所有出租车司机都是新美国人。


When my driver was Ethiopian, as often happened, we would commiserate over the national team’s defeat by Nigeria in a qualifying round, then celebrate the US defeat of Ghana, and end by agreeing that in four years, or certainly in eight, the US team would be among the world’s best.	我常常遇上埃塞俄比亚司机，每逢此时，我们就会感叹埃塞俄比亚队在预选赛中被尼日利亚队淘汰，然后庆祝美国击败加纳，最后一致同意四年后——顶多八年——美国队将步入世界顶尖行列。


In almost every case, my driver would tell me that his children were playing in local youth leagues.	几乎每一次，我的司机都会告诉我他的孩子在地区青年联赛踢球。


These immigrants are not only providing homegrown soccer talent for US teams; they are a core part of the expanding US audience for soccer worldwide.	这些移民不但为美国提供本土足球人才； 还构成了不断扩大的美国足球观众的中坚力量。


Dan Levy, lead writer for the US sports website The Bleacher Report, points out that most commentators define “American soccer” as the number of Americans who watch American players in US league play.	美国体育网站布里克报告（The Bleacher Report）主写手丹·莱维（Dan Levy）指出，大部分评论员将“美国足球”定义为观看美国足球联赛中美国球员表演的美国人数量。


Obviously, that is a ridiculous metric.	显然，这样的定义是荒谬的。


US tennis fans watch tennis wherever it is played all over the world, and the US audience for golf does not plummet when a tournament is played in the sport’s birthplace, Scotland.	美国网球粉丝观看网球比赛才不会管它是在哪里比，美国高尔夫球观众也不会因为锦标赛是在高尔夫球诞生地苏格兰举行而不看它。


More Americans watch soccer in the European and Mexican leagues, in English and in Spanish, than watch baseball and ice hockey, traditionally considered two of the “big four” US sports (along with American football and basketball).	更多的美国人收看欧洲和墨西哥联赛的英语和西班牙语转播，并且比收看棒球和冰球比赛更起劲。 后两者与美式橄榄球和篮球并称美国“四大”运动。


For the US, in particular, the World Cup is a great equalizer.	特别是，对美国人来说，世界杯是最好的平衡器。


My mother is originally Belgian, though she has been a US citizen for over 50 years; I still have an uncle, aunt, and cousins in Brussels.	我的母亲是比利时人，尽管她入籍美国已逾50年； 我仍有舅舅、姨妈和表兄弟姐妹生活在布鲁塞尔。


During the US-Belgium match, emails flew fast and thick across the family network, with lots of friendly rivalry.	在美国对阵比利时期间，我们的家庭网络上电邮满天飞，充满了友好的对立。


My mother claimed divided loyalty, because Belgium, after all, was “the David against the mighty Goliath.”	我母亲在选择主队时有些分裂，因为毕竟比利时是“对阵强大的歌利亚的大卫”。


Her three American children all weighed in simultaneously, pointing out that in soccer it is the US that is the underdog.	她的三个美国孩子马上反驳说，在足球方面，美国才是大卫。


Where else can the US experience what it is like to be a small country on the global stage?	其他还有什么领域能让美国体验世界舞台小国的感觉？


Like viewers around the world, Americans rooted for their team together, regardless of their domestic differences.	和世界各地的观众一样，美国人因为球队而团结起来，不管地方差异。


At a bar in Aspen, where the only open seat was at a table with an older man and his son-in-law (who welcomed me and offered to put my beer on their tab), we cheered and groaned whenever the US got close to scoring a goal or missed a kick.	在阿斯彭的一间酒吧，仅有的空座位于一张桌子旁，挨着一位老者和他的女婿（他们欢迎我入座，还提出请我喝啤酒），我们为美国队接近得分而欢呼，为美国队错失机会而扼腕。


In the periodic short breaks, we sounded each other out enough to find out that we were definitely in opposing political camps.	在中场休息期间，我们互相交谈，发现彼此政治阵营截然对立。


Given the current state of polarization in US politics, I think it is likely that in most other settings, my tablemates would not willingly have bought several rounds of beer for someone who spent two years working at the State Department for Hillary Clinton.	如今，美国政治极化严重，因此，我想要不是世界杯，我的这两位拼桌朋友是不会愿意请我这位在国务院为希拉里·克林顿卖了两年命的人喝掉好几轮啤酒的。


Here, though, we were cheering not for our political side, but for our national side.	但是，在这里，我们不为政治立场而欢呼，而是为国家队喝彩。


As our team maneuvered the ball down the field, politics fell away.	美国队在球场上奋斗，政治滚得远远的。


That happens at the Olympics, too, of course.	当然，奥运会也是如此。


But the Olympics is a smorgasbord of sports, each with its core of devotees, who often cheer on their favorites at the same time, but separately, in different arenas.	但奥运会体育大杂烩，每项比赛都有铁杆粉丝，他们会同时为自己所支持的选手喝彩，但他们分散在各个赛场。


And, more often than not, what we are witnessing is individual achievement – the deeply concentrated agility and courage of the downhill racer or the finely disciplined movements of the gymnast – rather than true team effort.	并且，更常见的情形是他们观看的是个人成就——山地车速降选手的凝神聚气、动如脱兔和勇气，或者体操选手完美规范的动作——而不是真正的团队努力。


The World Cup allows all of the supporters of one country to come together at one moment for one game between two groups that must, like them, become more than the sum of their parts.	世界杯让某国的所有支持者在某一时刻为了某场比赛而走到一起，形成一加一大于二的效果。


It actually feels incomplete to watch the World Cup alone.	事实上，光是观看世界杯比赛让人感到意犹未尽。


At the end of the game, amid regret over the loss to mighty Belgium but convinced that the US had played a great game, my new friend said: “We need much more of this.”	比赛结束时，在为惜败于强大的比利时而扼腕但又认为美国打出了一场伟大比赛的同时，我的新朋友说：“我们需要的远不止于此。 ”


US exceptionalism remains alive and well, of course.	当然，美国例外论仍然大有市场。


I suspect that we will always call the world’s game “soccer.”	我怀疑我们会继续永远把这一世界第一运动称为“soccer”（其他国家称为“football”，美国“football”是橄榄球）。


But now we love it, and it is our game, too.	但现在我们热爱这个运动，它也成为了我们的运动。


An Obama Moment for India’s Untouchables	印度的贱民的奥巴马时刻


NEW DELHI – Among the many international consequences of Barack Obama’s stunning victory in the United States is worldwide introspection about whether such a breakthrough could happen elsewhere.	新德里-奥巴马在美国取得了令人难以置信的胜利，这一事件引起了众多的国际影响，其中一个是，全世界正在反省这种突破是否可能在其它地方发生。


Could a person of color win power in other white-majority countries?	一个属于有色人种的人是否可能在美国之外的白人占多数的国家里赢得权力？


Could a member of a beleaguered minority transcend the circumstances of his birth to lead his or her country?	一个处在多数族群包围中的少数族群的人有可能超越他的出生身份而成为他或她的国家的领袖吗？


While many analysts in a wide variety of nations, especially in Europe, have concluded that such an event could not occur there in the foreseeable future, India is an exception.	虽然各国的尤其是在欧洲的众多分析家们已经得出结论，认为这类事件在可预见的将来不可能发生，但印度却是个例外。


Minority politicians have long wielded authority, if not power, in its various high offices.	少数民族的政客很久前就在印度的各种高级职位上掌握了权威，如果还算不上是掌握权力的话。


Indeed, India’s last general election, in 2004, was won by a woman of Italian heritage and Roman Catholic faith (Sonia Gandhi) who made way for a Sikh (Manmohan Singh) to be sworn in as Prime Minister by a Muslim (President Abdul Kalam) in a country that is 81% Hindu.	事实上，印度上一次2004年的大选，赢家是一个意大利后裔的信仰罗马天主教的女人（索尼娅·甘地），她为一个锡克教徒（曼莫汉·辛格）向一个穆斯林教徒（阿卜杜勒·卡拉姆总统）宣誓就职总理铺平了道路，而该国的人口81 ％是印度教徒。


Not only could it happen here, Indians say, it already has.	印度人说，这种情况不仅可能在这里发生，而且它已经发生了。


Such complacency is premature.	但这种自满还为时过早。


The closest Indian analogy to the position of black Americans is that of the Dalits – formerly called “Untouchables,” the outcastes who for millennia suffered humiliating discrimination and oppression.	在印度，最能和美国黑人的地位相类比的是贱民-即以前所谓的“最底层不可接触的贱民” ，他们是数千年来遭受屈辱的歧视和压迫的被剥夺种姓的阶层。


Like blacks in the US, Dalits account for about 15% of the population; they are found disproportionately in low-status, low-income jobs; their levels of educational attainment are lower than the upper castes; and they still face daily incidents of discrimination for no reason other than their identity at birth.	和美国黑人一样，贱民约占人口的15 ％，他们在低地位、低收入的工作岗位上所占的比例与他们在总人口中的比例不相符合； 他们的教育水平低于上等种姓；


Only when a Dalit rules India can the country truly be said to have attained its own “Obama moment.”	他们每天仍然仅仅因为他们出生时的身份而受到歧视。 只有当一个贱民可以统治印度的时候，这个国家才真正可以说实现了自己的“奥巴马的时刻 ” 。


In theory, this already has happened: K. R. Narayanan, born into a poor Dalit family, served as India’s president, the highest office in the land, from 1997 to 2002.	从理论上讲，这已经发生了：出生于一个贫穷贱民家庭的雷克南·纳拉亚南，从1997年到2002年间担任过印度总统，这是这个国家的最高职位。


But the Indian Presidency is a largely ceremonial position: real power is vested in the office of prime minister, and no Dalit has come close to holding that post.	但是，印度的总统基本上是象征性的职位：真正的权力掌握在总理手中，而且从未有贱民的职位曾靠近过总理一职。


Since independence in 1947, a majority of India’s prime ministers have been Brahmins, the highest Hindu caste.	自1947年独立以来，大多数的印度总理是由婆罗门人担任的，他们是印度教的最高种姓。


Yet the next national elections, due before May 2009, may produce a plausible Dalit contender for the job of prime minister – Kumari Mayawati, the female chief minister of India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh.	然而，在下次在2009年5月之前将要举行的全国大选中，可能会有一个贱民出来竞争总理的职位-她就是库·玛雅瓦提，印度最大的邦-北方邦-的女性首席部长。


Since 1991, no Indian governing party has enjoyed a secure parliamentary majority on its own, necessitating multi-party coalition governments.	自1991年以来，没有一个印度执政党在议会中曾享有保险的多数席位，也因此必须组成多党联合政府。


The current Congress Party-led government of Manmohan Singh comprises 20 parties; it succeeded a 23-party coalition headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee.	目前由曼莫汉·辛格领导的由国大党主导的政府由20个政党组成，上一届政府是由印度人民党的阿塔尔·比哈里·瓦杰帕伊领导的23党联合政府。


When the election results are declared next year, no one doubts that the first challenge will be to cobble together another coalition.	当明年选举结果宣布后，没有人会怀疑，首个挑战将是组成另一届联合政府。


Both the Congress and the BJP will seek to make alliances with the dozens of smaller parties likely to be represented in parliament.	国大党和印度人民党都将设法与几十个可能在议会中占有席位的小党组成联盟。


But this time they are likely to face a third alternative: Mayawati, whose Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may command a bloc of at least 50 seats.	但是，这一次他们很可能面临着第三种选择：玛雅瓦提，其社会报党（ BSP ）可能占有至少50个席位。


She has publicly expressed her disdain for both large national parties; she would much rather lead a coalition than join one.	她曾公开表示对两个全国性大党不屑一顾;她宁愿领导一个联合政府，而不是加入一个大党。


And if the electoral numbers break down right, she could conceivably assemble a collection of regional and left-wing parties and stake a claim to rule India.	如果选举人数分配得当，我们可以预料她有可能组合地区性和左翼政党，出任印度总理以领导该国。


This is a remarkable development: the idea that a Dalit woman could lead India has been inconceivable for 3,000 years.	这是一个了不起的进展：三千年来，由一个贱民女子来领导印度是无法想象的概念。


But India’s democracy has opened new pathways to empowerment for its underclasses.	但是，印度的民主已开辟了新途径以赋予下层阶级以力量。


The poor and the oppressed may not have much, but they do have the numbers, which is what matters at the ballot box.	穷人和被压迫者所拥有的可能不多，但他们确实拥有人数，而投票时��作用的恰恰是人数。


Dalits and India’s aboriginals (listed in the Constitution as “Scheduled Castes and Tribes”) are entitled to 85 seats in India’s 543-member parliament that are “reserved” for candidates from their communities.	贱民和印度的原住民（宪法中所列的“贱民和部落” ）在印度的543人组成的议会中有权获得85个席位，这是为他们的社区“保留”的席位。


Mayawati’s shrewd alliances, including with some members of the upper castes, which propelled her to power in Uttar Pradesh, give her party a fighting chance to win a number of other seats as well.	玛雅瓦提的精明的联盟伙伴们，包括一些上等种姓成员，把她推上了北方邦的权利顶峰，并给了她一个机会去赢得其它一些席位。


In a coalition-dependent parliamentary system, that could be all she needs to become prime minister.	在依赖联合政府的议会制中，这可能是她成为总理所需要的全部条件。


The daughter of a government clerk, Mayawati studied law and worked as a teacher before being spotted by the BSP’s founder, the late Kanshi Ram, and groomed for political leadership.	作为一个政府办事员的女儿，玛雅瓦提曾攻读法律并做过教师，后来被社会报党（ BSP ）的创始人，已故的Kanshi RAM 发现，并培养了她的政治领导才能。


Her ascent has been marked by a heavy emphasis on symbolism – her rule in Uttar Pradesh has featured the construction of numerous statues of Dalit leaders, notably herself – and a taste for lavish celebrations.	她的崛起一直注重于象征意义-她在她治理的北方邦建造了无数贱民领导人的雕像，尤其是她自己的雕像，她对奢华的庆祝活动也特别爱好。


Mayawati’s weakness for “bling” has been demonstrated at her extravagant birthday parties, which she presides over laden with diamonds, saying (rather like Evita Peron) that her luster brings glamour and dignity to her people.	玛雅瓦提的“着装”弱点已在她主持的奢侈的生日派对上尽显无遗，她的衣着缀满了钻石，她说（这很像艾薇塔·庇隆） ，她的光彩给她的族群带来了魅力和尊严。


She takes pride in being the Indian politician who pays the highest income taxes – about $6 million last year – though the sources of her income are shrouded in controversy.	她引以自豪的是去年付了约6 00万美元的所得税-这在印度政治家中是最高的-尽管她的收入来源倍受争议。


She has been accused, but not convicted, of corruption several times, with one notable case involving the construction of an elaborate shopping complex near the Taj Mahal, in violation of zoning laws.	她数次因腐败被指控，但没有被定罪，其中一个广为人知的案件涉及在泰姬陵附近建造一个大型购物中心，这违反了景观规划法。


Critics argue that Mayawati’s promotion of Dalit welfare seems to start with herself.	批评者认为，玛雅瓦提对贱民福利的促进似乎是以她自己为起点的。


But there is no denying that her rise to power in India’s largest state, which sends 80 members to parliament, has given her a vital platform to bid for India’s most powerful job.	但是，不容否认的是，议会中占了80名议员的印度的最大的邦由她掌权，给了她一个重要平台去竞争印度最有权利的职位。


With her diamonds and her statues, and a reputation for dealing imperiously with her subordinates, she’s clearly no Obama.	以她的钻石和她建造的塑像，以及她威严地对待下属的名声，她显然不是奥巴马的料。


But if she succeeds, she will have overcome a far longer legacy of discrimination.	但是，如果她成功了，她将会结束一段更长久的歧视历史。


A No-Fly Zone for Syria	为叙利亚设置禁飞区


BRUSSELS – There is a saying, too often used in interpreting international relations, that my enemy’s enemy is my friend.	布鲁塞尔—在对国际关系的解读上有一句烂大街的话，叫做敌人的敌人就是我的朋友。


Sometimes it proves true; often it does not.	有时这句话是对的，通常它是错的。


Thirty years ago, the Afghan mujahedin were mistaken for friends of the West when they fought their country’s Soviet invaders.	三十年前，阿富汗圣战者在与苏联侵略者做斗争时错误地与西方交了朋友。


But how lazy that assumption seems now, given all that has since happened.	然而站在现在看待此后发生的一切，却道教条害死人。


Syria’s deepening crisis, and the criminal use of chemical weapons there, has created a similar dynamic and dilemma.	叙利亚危机的深化，以及使用化学武器的罪行，创造了一个类似的动态和困境。


But the West need not risk making the same mistake and accepting the same false choices.	但西方不需要冒犯同样错误、接受同样错误的选择的风险。


Begin with first principles.	让我们从首要原则开始。


A chemical-weapons attack on the scale just seen in Syria must be deemed a game changer.	刚刚在叙利亚出现的大规模使用化学武器现象必然是局面改变器。


Although possessing these weapons of mass destruction is technically not illegal, most states are parties to the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention, which Syria has refused to sign.	尽管拥有这些大规模杀伤性武器在技术上并不违法，但大部分国家加入了1993年化学武器公约，而叙利亚拒绝在该公约上签字。


So the answer to the question “What happens next?” cannot be “Nothing.”	因此，对于“接下来会发生什么？ ”这个问题，不能以“什么都不会发生。


Principles of international law – in particular, the emerging “responsibility to protect” doctrine and enforcement of the global ban on the use of chemical weapons – dictate that some form of military intervention must occur in order to deter others from using WMDs, particularly against civilians.	”作答。 国际法的原则——特别是新兴的“保护责任”思想和在全球强制禁止化学武器的使用——意味着某种形式的军事干预必须进行，以威慑其他可能使用大规模杀伤性武器（特别是针对平民使用）的国家。


But which measures are appropriate and genuinely useful?	但怎样的动作是合适的，而且真正会有效？


What is more likely to strengthen the West’s security, and what runs the risk of weakening it?	什么措施更有利于增强西方的安全，什么措施可能威胁到西方的安全？


I believe that the fairest and simplest proportionate response would be to impose a no-fly zone on Syria.	我认为最公平、最简单的合理反应是在叙利亚设置禁飞区。


The proposal is particularly appropriate in the likely absence of any resolution under United Nations Chapter VII (“Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace”), owing to the (almost certain) cynical use by Russia and China of their veto power in the Security Council.	该方案在根据联合国宪章第七条（“针对和平威胁的行动”）的解决方案缺位的情况下尤其合适，因为俄罗斯和中国（几乎肯定）将在安理会上投否决票。


Of course, claims and counter-claims have been swirling in the aftermath of the appalling chemical-weapons attack on a rebel-controlled area east of Damascus.	当然，在叛军控制的大马士革东区爆发骇人听闻的化学武器攻击后，攻讦和反诘便呈现出不可开交之势。


But, given the brutality of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, no one can doubt the lengths to which it would go to hide its guilt.	但是，考虑到总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权的残暴，没人怀疑它会接近所能隐瞒其罪行。


The five-day delay in allowing UN chemical-weapons experts to verify the attack gave Assad’s government ample time to conceal incriminating evidence, allow it to degrade, or destroy it with further shelling.	阻挠联合国化学武器专家进入核实攻击五天之久足以让巴沙尔政府隐瞒犯罪证据、让证据降解或用后续炮轰毁灭证据。


The United States, France, and the United Kingdom are adamant that all the intelligence and eyewitness evidence points to the Assad government as the perpetrator of the attack.	美国、法国和英国坚定认为情报和目击证据都表明巴沙尔政府是袭击的发动者。


There also is no doubt about the legitimacy of concerns about elements of the Syrian opposition.	另一个毫无疑问的要点是对叙利亚反对派的要素的担忧合情合理。


The Al Qaeda-led and Salafist extremist groups in the rebel forces, such a Al Nusra, have proved to be just as vicious as the government and its allies, the Iranian proxy Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.	叛军中不乏基地组织领导的沙拉菲派极端组织，比如Al Nusra，它们被证实与政府及其盟友——伊朗代理人真主党和伊朗革命卫队一样残暴。


But the united view of Western intelligence services is that there is no evidence that these rebel groups launched the chemical-weapons attack.	但西方情报机构的综合意见认为，没有证据表明这些叛军组织发动了化学武器攻击。


In these circumstances, a no-fly zone would not only clear the skies of Syrian warplanes and missiles, thereby reducing the scale of the slaughter; it would also show Assad and his supporters that he truly is vulnerable.	在这样的环境下，禁飞区不但能让叙利亚战机和导弹从天空上小时，从而减小屠杀的规模； 还能像巴沙尔及其支持者证明，他实在是孱弱不堪。


Generals ordered to use chemical weapons would have to reckon with the prospect that the regime could, actually, fall, and that they then might find themselves on trial for war crimes.	下令使用化学武器的将军将不得不考虑巴沙尔政权被推翻、他们以战争罪被送上法庭的风险。


It would be better, of course, if Russia and China would allow the Security Council to do the job for which it was intended – securing peace and preventing war crimes.	当然，好处不仅限于此，如果俄罗斯和中国赞成让安理会来实施这一措施，以达到其目的——保护和平、阻止战争罪行的话。


By continuing to support Assad despite his use of chemical weapons, Russia’s standing in the Arab world has gone from patron to pariah.	在巴沙尔使用化学武器的情况下继续支持他将让俄罗斯在阿拉伯世界的地位从保护人降格为过街老鼠。


What little moral and political standing Russian President Vladimir Putin has retained in the rest of the world is also evaporating, as he will soon discover at the upcoming G-20 Summit in Saint Petersburg.	俄罗斯总统普京在全世界面前所保有的些许道德和政治立场也将蒸发殆尽，他很快就会在即将于圣彼得堡召开的G20峰会上发现这一点。


But the world cannot hold its breath waiting for a change of heart by Putin and China, which is why a no-fly zone should be examined as a military option.	但世界不能屏息等待普京和中国回心转意，这就是禁飞区应该作为试验性军事选择的原因。


In the aftermath of the Gulf War in 1991, a no-fly zone, initially proposed by British Prime Minister John Major, did not topple Saddam Hussein, but it did prevent him from carrying out further attacks from the air on Kurds in the north and Shia in the south.	1991年海湾战争后，由英国首相梅杰首先提出的禁飞区虽然没有推翻萨达姆·侯赛因，但却是阻止了他继续从空中打击北部的库尔德人和南部的什叶派。


Likewise, a no-fly zone in Syria would immediately restrict the Syrian government’s means of delivery of weapons of mass destruction.	类似地，在叙利亚设置禁飞区能立刻限制叙利亚政府运送大规模杀伤性武器的能力。


Some military experts may say that Syria’s air-defense systems are too sophisticated to suppress, making a no-fly zone too dangerous to enforce.	一些军事专家或许会说，叙利亚空中防御系统很成熟，不易压制，强行设置禁飞区太危险。 但以色列成功地两次空袭过叙利亚，一次在2007年，摧毁了朝鲜人运行的核反应堆；


But Israel has managed to attack Syrian territory twice – destroying a North Korean-staffed nuclear reactor in 2007 and, more recently, striking a Hezbollah convoy – with no casualties or loss of planes.	另一次为时更近，袭击了一支真主党卫队。 两次空袭都没有造成本方伤亡和飞机损失。


Mindful of this weakness, Russia has offered Syria its more modern S-300 missiles; but there is no evidence that they have arrived, let alone been deployed.	对这一弱点心知肚明的俄罗斯向叙利亚提供了更先进的S-300导弹； 但没有证据表明这些导弹已经运抵叙利亚，更不用说完成部署了。


And once Syria’s air-defense system is sufficiently degraded, it would be best if Arab countries – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states – and Turkey used their air forces to police the zone.	而只要叙利亚空中防御系统退化程度足够，阿拉伯国家——沙特、卡塔尔和其他海湾国家——以及土耳其以其空中力量维持禁飞区就成为最佳选择。


Any malicious wishful thinking on the part of Assad’s regime would be dispelled with every glance at the sky.	只要看一看天际，任何对巴沙尔政权的邪恶的一厢情愿变会烟消云散。


An Old Problem on China’s New Frontier	中国新边界上的老问题


WARSAW – Had the August 1991 putsch against Mikhail Gorbachev not failed, the riots and death recently seen in Xinjiang could have been taking place in Russia.	发自华沙——如果1991年爆发的那场针对米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫的政变成功了的话，那么最近在中国新疆地区发生的暴乱可能将在俄罗斯上演。


Instead of hearing about a crackdown in Urumqi, Xinjiang’s capital, we might be reading about hundreds killed on the streets of Almaty, and columnists would be making comparisons to the bloody crushing of Ukrainian independence demonstrations in Lvov the previous year.	如果是这样的话，我们听到的可不是在新疆首府乌鲁木齐的镇压行动，而是数百人在哈萨克斯坦的阿拉木图喋血街头，而专栏作家能与之相比较的，则可能是上一年在乌克兰利沃夫市爆发的某场乌克兰人独立运动。


As with China today, there would have been some feeble international condemnation, and some speculation about possible links between Kazakh militants and exile groups, or Islamic fundamentalists.	跟中国现在的情况一样，俄罗斯方面可能会遭到外部世界的一些若有若无的谴责，并流传出一些跟哈萨克武装人员和分离组织，或者伊斯兰极端分子有关的怀疑之声。


Experts would remind us that Kazakhstan had never been a country, and that Ukrainian claims to independence are historically dubious.	而专家则可能会提醒我们说哈萨克斯坦从来就没有真正成为一个国家，而乌克兰人的独立诉求在历史上根本是站不住脚的。


Substitute Xinjiang for Kazakhstan and Tibet for Ukraine and you get the picture.	只要把新疆和哈萨克斯坦，把西藏和乌克兰两者各自调换一下，你就能想象出那个情景了。


But that putsch, thankfully, ended as a farce. The decaying Soviet regime was unable to crush Russia’s growing democratic movement – it would take Vladimir Putin to do that a decade later.	但万幸的是，1991年的那场政变最后以失败收场，腐朽的苏维埃政权再也无力镇压俄罗斯内部蓬勃发展的民主运动——谁知解体10年后普京却完成了这个任务。


By opting for the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, the Chinese Communist leadership set their country on a road starkly different from the one on which Russia subsequently embarked.	与此同时，中国共产党领导层选择了另一条道路，通过1989年的天安门大屠杀事件，他们把国家送上了一条与俄罗斯截然不同的道路。


Though China’s policies have brought about Pinochet-style economic growth, if on the scale of a country that is almost a continent unto itself, they have also ensured that there is in no freedom for anyone, including the Han majority.	虽然对于中国这个如一个大陆般巨大的国家来说，其所采取的政策带来了皮诺切特式的经济发展奇迹，但他们同时也剥夺了所有人的自由，甚至连人口占绝大多数的汉族人也不能幸免。


This, in turn, means that, while Kazakhstan and Ukraine are independent, Tibet and Xinjiang alternate between phases of violent agitation and bloody repression.	这意味着当哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰都获得了独立之后，新疆和西藏却依然深陷在暴动和血腥镇压的无尽轮回之中。


Though Russia today is autocratically governed, the introduction of a Chinese-style dictatorship seems hardly plausible, while GDP per capita was $15,800 last year, or almost three times that of China.	而即使当今的俄罗斯也处在某种程度的独裁统治之下，但要想引入中国式的专政依然不太可能，因为俄罗斯去年的人均GDP达到了1. 58万美元，比中国高三倍。


Yet a majority of the Chinese population seems to support its’ government’s policies, including its brutal suppression of minorities and denial of democratic freedoms.	而大多数中国人似乎对政府的政策非常支持，人们对政府对少数民族的残酷镇压以及对民主自由的抵制行径都表示认同。


In fact, the latter seems to be the price paid for the success of the former.	事实上，后者似乎就是为前者的成功所付出的代价。 这可不是一个小说情节。


This is not a novel phenomenon.	在1863年，流亡俄罗斯民主思想家亚历山大·赫尔岑就在他主办的政治刊物《Kolokol（钟）》中评论说，如果人们对帝俄军队在华沙街头对波兰人起义的暴力镇压安之若素，那么发生圣彼得堡街头的镇压也就不远了。 因为人们和政府之间对镇压的认可实际上是个一揽子交易，有第一次就肯定有第二次，而且既然达成了买卖就得被迫照单全收。


In 1863, the Russian democratic émigré thinker Alexander Herzen, commenting on the brutal crushing of the Polish uprising by the Tsarist army, wrote in his publication	而这一评论直接导致赫尔岑的俄国读者数量剧减，最终《钟》只得关门大吉。


When Herzen was writing his words, Moscow was not only busy successfully putting down the Poles, reasserting its rule there for another half-century, but also, together with China, carving up Central Asia, known then as Turkestan.	而当赫尔岑写下这些文字的时候，莫斯科不仅忙于镇压波兰人并确保能继续统治波兰近半个世纪，而且还努力和中国一起瓜分中亚（所谓土耳其斯坦地区）。


The eastern part of the region fell under Chinese rule, and was renamed Xinjiang, or New Frontier.	最终这一区域的东部沦为中国统治区，并被重新命名为“新疆”，意思是“新的边界”。


Each time Chinese rule weakened, as in the 1930’s and 1940’s, short-lived East Turkestan Republics were established, with Russian support, only to flounder when Russia and China struck new deals.	但每当中国的统治被削弱的时候，比如在1930年代和1940年代，短命的东土耳其斯坦共和国就会在俄国的支持下建立，并随之在中俄订立新协约之后灰飞烟灭。


The leadership of the second East Turkestan Republic was presumably murdered on Stalin’s orders, when the plane carrying it to Beijing for talks allegedly crashed in Soviet airspace.	而第二个土耳其斯坦的领导人甚至据说是被斯大林下令处决的，当时这些人坐飞机前往北京进行谈判，最终飞机却在苏联领空中坠毁了。


Since then, East Turkestan has existed solely on paper, as a member of the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO), a would-be competitor of the United Nations set up in 1991.	从那以后，东土耳其斯坦就名存实亡了，仅仅作为非联合国会员国家及民族组织（简称UNPO，一个成立于1991年，旨在与联合国分庭抗礼的组织）的成员存在。


In Xinjiang itself, the current agitation is more social than nationalist in character, and targets cultural oppression (Han Chinese by now make up half of the region’s population) rather than expressing aspirations for independence.	而对于新疆来说，最近的暴动在本质上是社会意义而不是国家意义上的，目的是反对文化压迫（汉族已经占到了本地区人口的一半）而不是表达独立的诉求。


Yet the recent bloodbath there is almost sure to change that, as violence unavoidably breeds radicalization.	但流血事件也很可能改变整个状况，因为暴力将不可避免地滋生极端主义。


In the short and medium term, China’s rule in Xinjiang and Tibet seems secure: the international community will not challenge a Security Council member state.	而在中短期内，中国对新疆和西藏的统治似乎安全无忧：国际社会可不会挑战一个安理会常任理事国。


Only its own citizens could do that, but Herzen’s package deal seems to prevent that: just like the Tibetans, the Uighurs elicit not Han solidarity, but a braying for their blood – somewhat understandable, given that ordinary Han in Lhasa and Urumqi were made to pay with their own for China’s misdeeds.	只有中国公民能挑战之，但赫尔岑的“一揽子交易”理论似乎防止了这一状况的发生：跟西藏人一样，维吾尔人的行动换来的并不是汉族的团结政策，而是镇压和复仇的叫嚣——这可以理解，因为许多在拉萨和乌鲁木齐的无辜汉人为中国政府的恶行付出了生命的代价。


In the longer term, however, the Chinese authorities have every reason to be worried: Xinjiang will grow to be a problem like Tibet.	但在长期来说，中国执政者很有理由去担心：新疆将演变成下一个西藏。


Indeed, though the UNPO, to which both belong – alongside Assyria and the Buffalo River Dene Nation – has a vaguely Marx Brothers’ air to it (one expects Freedonia, the mythical country of which Groucho Marx was prime minister, to be on the roster), six member states already have left it to join the UN, and Kosovo, now independent if lacking UN recognition, will eventually follow. Political maps are never carved in stone.	但事实上，虽然非联合国会员国家及民族组织——包括中东的所谓亚述国或者加拿大的水牛河丘国在内——依然只像是美国著名戏剧团体“马克思兄弟”所虚构的戏剧（有人甚至希望把由喜剧班子成员格兰切诺·马克思任首相的所谓“自由尼亚”也位列其中），但如今已经有六个前会员国成功争取到了联合国资格，连已经独立但缺乏联合国承认的科索沃也将走上这条道路，可见在政治版图上，那些虚构的国家是很可能会摇身一变，成为真正国家的。


It is therefore safe to assume that not only obscure academics and correspondents, but officials in Beijing as well, are now busy studying the history of the Ghulja uprising and of Osman Batur’s guerillas.	因此可以认定的是，不但那些默默无闻的学者和新闻通讯员，甚至连北京的官员如今都在忙于研究新疆伊宁起义以及奥斯曼·巴图尔游击队的历史。


Come to think of it: whatever happened to the Poles, whom Russia so successfully put down in 1863?	试想一下，1893年被帝俄军队成功镇压的波兰人，如今又是什么样的状况？


An OPEC for Migrant Labor?	移民劳工的欧佩克？


DUBAI – In September 1960, delegates from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela met in Baghdad to form the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.	迪拜—1906年9月，来自伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和委内瑞拉的代表齐聚巴格达，组成了石油输出国组织（欧佩克）。


As the world’s dependence on oil increased, so did OPEC’s power.	随着世界对石油依赖的与日俱增，欧佩克的权力也水涨船高。


Today, with many developing countries, including a majority of the countries in the Middle East, serving as some of the world’s main labor exporters, might it be time to consider the formation of an OPEC-like cartel for migrant workers?	如今，许多发展中国家，包括大部分中东国家，成为世界主要劳动力输出国，是否应该考虑成立一个类似于欧佩克的移民劳工卡特尔？


OPEC succeeded in protecting its members’ shared interests that they could not protect individually.	欧佩克成功地保护了个体成员国单独无法保护的共同利益。


When a market has structural distortions, political tools and collective action of the sort that OPEC embodied can be more effective than public policy.	当市场存在结构性扭曲时，欧佩克所提供的政治工具和集体行动要比公共政策更加有效。


Labor-exporting countries today are not so different from OPEC’s founding members in 1960.	今天的劳动力输出国与1960年成立欧佩克的那些成员国并无重大不同。


They, too, are vulnerable in a market where their customers call the shots.	它们也是买方市场的弱势方。


Rich labor-importing countries and poor labor-exporting countries have a mutually dependent relationship; but labor importers can unilaterally tighten or loosen immigration or labor-market regulations, leaving exporters in a constant state of uncertainty.	富裕的劳动力输入国和贫穷的劳动力输出国存在互相依赖的关系； 但劳动力输入国可以单方面收紧或放松移民或劳动力市场规则，而劳动力输出国永远需要面临不确定性。


This imbalance can have serious costs for labor exporters.	这一失衡可能给劳动力输出国造成巨大的成本。


Remittances by expatriate workers are an essential lifeline for many developing countries – more so than any other financial inflows, including foreign direct investment and aid – and often help to balance a country’s books.	侨民汇款是许多发展中国家重要的生命线——比包括外国直接投资和援助在内的其他任何金融流都要重要——常常起到平衡一国收支的作用。


Indeed, according to the World Bank, in 2013 remittances amounted to 20-24% of GDP in the Philippines and Indonesia, 42% in Tajikistan, 32% in Kyrgyzstan, 17% in Lebanon, 10.8% in Jordan, 9.9% in Yemen, and 6.6% in Egypt and Morocco.	事实上，据世界银行，2013年侨汇占到了菲律宾和与印度尼西亚GDP的20—24%，塔吉克斯坦的42%，吉尔吉斯斯坦的32%，黎巴嫩的17%，约旦的10. 8%，也门的9.


For many developing countries, labor is a strategic production factor, just as commodities are for resource-rich economies.	对许多发展中国家而言，劳动力是战略性生产要素，正如大宗商品之于资源富裕经济体。


When we think about migrant labor, we think of low-skill work in agriculture, construction, services, and domestic work.	当我们提到移民劳工时，想到的是农业、建筑业、服务业和家政业的低技能工作。


But countries such as Jordan and Lebanon (among others) are now educating workers to compete as high-skilled expatriates, too.	但约旦和黎巴嫩等国家正在教育工人，让他们不但可以从事家政，也可以成为高技能外来工作者。


Labor exporters now need to protect their investments in human capital, and a cartel-like political body is the most effective way to do this.	如今，劳动力输出国需要保护它们在人力资本上的投资，而类似于卡塔尔的政治实体是最有效的方式。


If the countries listed above were to join with China, Mexico, India, and other major labor exporters, they would be holding most of the chips in a collective negotiation about wages, visa terms, and other conditions – some of which would also benefit non-members as global norms changed.	如果上述国家想加入中国、墨西哥、印度和其他主要劳动力输出国的行列，就必须通过在工资、签证和其他条件上进行集体讨价还价抓住最多筹码——随着全球范式的改变，其中一些也将惠及非成员国。


Labor importers would have to vie for access to a collective market, rather than individual national markets, and countries that gained access would have a significant comparative advantage over those that did not.	劳动力输入国需要竞争进入集体市场，而不是个体国家市场，获得进入权的国家将赢得巨大的比较优势。


A cartel would prevent labor-exporting countries from cannibalizing their own interests, as currently happens with bilateral arrangements.	卡特尔将防止劳动力输出国牺牲自身利益，而这是目前在双边安排中常有的情况。


For example, if they were to conclude separate agreements with Gulf Cooperation Council countries, individual Southeast Asian countries would undercut one another, with the result that they might end up with worse deals.	比如，如果想与海湾合作委员会国家签订单独协议，孤军奋战的东南亚国家将彼此倾轧，最终的结果是获得更加糟糕的协议。


With a cartel, governments would instead set minimum-wage rates for different professions and trades, as well as for different skill levels.	有了卡特尔，政府将转而为不同职业和交易以及不同技能水平制定最低工资率。


As exporters trained their migrant workforces, demand for their labor would grow and spark competition among venders rather than suppliers, thus fueling a virtuous cycle of higher wages and even more skills training.	随着输出国对移民劳动力进行培训，对这些劳动力的需求将会增加，刺激需求方而不是供给方的竞争，从而形成更高工资、更多技能培训的良性循环。


And, because this would all happen on global markets, the prices of certain skills would become more transparent to training institutions, students, employees, and employers alike.	此外，由于这一切都将在全球市场上发生，某些技能的价格将对培训机构、学生、员工和雇主变得更加透明。


In this new system, importing countries would collect taxes – on the basis of the newly set minimum wage – and remittances would remain untaxed.	在这个新体系中，输入国将收取税收——基于新制定的最低工资——而侨汇将继续免税。


In this sense, the cartel would double as an international workers’ union, lending bargaining power to employees in countries where unions are weak or not permitted at all.	从这个角度，卡特尔将起到双重国际工会的作用，为工会力量较弱或被禁止的国家的员工提供议价力。


A labor-exporting cartel would have far-reaching effects on the current system.	劳动力输出卡特尔将对现有体系形成深远影响。


Cartel members would be empowered to reward and penalize third parties acting in bad faith.	卡特尔成员国将获得奖励和惩罚恶意第三方的能力。


And, most important, the workers themselves would be empowered to reclaim their dignity in a system that has long stripped them of it.	此外，更重要的是，工人本身也将获得找回尊严的能力，在当前体系中，他们的这一权利被长期剥夺。


Indeed, we could expect xenophobia to wane worldwide as access to foreign workers became more privileged.	事实上，可以预期，随着获得外籍工人成为一种特权，全世界的仇外情绪都将消退。


A cartel could advance the cause of comprehensive immigration and expat labor reform in many countries, including the United States, Japan, and the Gulf states.	卡特尔将推动许多国家进行全面的移民和外籍劳工改革，包括美国、日本和海湾国家。


Under a newly negotiated arrangement, labor-exporting countries would likely have an incentive to curb free riders and illegal emigration, and labor-importing countries would likely have an incentive to legalize and manage the status of illegal immigrants already within their borders.	根据新谈判的安排，劳动力输出国或将产生遏制免费搭车者和非法向外移民的激励，而劳动力输入国或将产生已入境非法 移民合法化和地位管理的激励。


One likely objection to this proposal is that low-skilled labor will cost more, which could accelerate automation.	这一方案的一个可能的反对因素是低技能劳动力成本将会增加，这将刺激自动化。


But the jobs automation displaced from the production sector would simply move to the leisure sector, because demand for domestic workers, waiters, gardeners, and the like would increase.	但因为自动化而被逐出生产部门的工作岗位将转移到休闲部门，因为对家政、侍应、园丁等岗位的需求将增加。


Because a cartel would make these market changes more discernible, labor exporters would be able to respond and adjust their worker-training systems accordingly, increasing labor importers’ ability to recruit migrant workers better suited to the available jobs.	卡特尔将让这些市场的变化更加明确，因此劳动力输出国将能够做出反应并据此调整工人培训系统，增加劳动力输入国招到更加适合可用岗位的移民劳工的能力。


All told, a labor-exporting cartel would bring order to an industry that has long been mired in controversy, damaging the reputations of more than a few labor-importing countries.	总而言之，劳动力输出卡特尔将给这个长期陷入争议、因此破坏了许多劳动力输入国名声的行业带来秩序。


It would change the dynamics of labor supply and demand to the benefit of both workers – who would have new protections – and importing countries, which would have access to trained laborers to respond to rapid changes – often driven by technology – in economic conditions.	它将改变劳动力供需的动态，让工人（他们将获得新的保护）和输入国（它们将能够获得受过培训的拉动力以适应通常因为技术而发生的经济条件的快速变化）都受益。


An Open Letter to Ehud Olmert	致奥尔默特的公开信


Dear Mr. Olmert,	奥尔莫特先生：


I am writing you in the hope that you will take time from your busy schedule as Israel’s acting Prime Minister to hear one Palestinian’s hopes.	我提笔给您写信，希望您能够从百忙中抽出时间来倾听一个巴勒斯坦人的心声。


Even though your ascension to the position of Prime Minister came in an awkward way because of Ariel Sharon’s stroke, I believe that you have an opportunity to be part of a historic reconciliation.	尽管由于沙龙的中风您登上总理的位置有一点唐突，我相信您有机会成为历史和解的一部分。


While I am sure you will insist that you are going to follow in the political legacy of Sharon, you have some important advantages with Palestinians that Sharon did not have.	我知道，您会坚持说您将遵从沙龙的政治遗产。 但是，您具有某些沙龙所不具备的与巴勒斯坦人相处的重要的优势。


The first advantage is that you’re not burdened with Ariel Sharon’s negative image among Palestinians and Arabs.	第一个优势是，您并不背负着沙龙在巴勒斯坦人和阿拉伯人中的负面形象。


Having been the mayor of Jerusalem for 10 years, you know the situation of Palestinians close up.	您担任耶路撒冷市市长十年，您亲身了解巴勒斯坦人的处境。


I believe that the chances for a political breakthrough in our region have never been better.	我相信，在我们的地区实现政治性突破的机会从来没有这样好过。


On the Israeli side, your faith in the political process was demonstrated recently when you and Sharon decided unilaterally to go against your own ideology and take on the powerful settler movement.	在以色列方面，您和沙龙单方面决定与你们自己的意识形态背道而驰并且毅然撤出犹太人定居点，从而展示了你们对政治进程的信仰。


The two of you also went against conventional Israeli thinking by breaking away from your Likud party, greatly weakening the ideological stranglehold that Likud’s far-right central committee held on Israeli politics.	您两位还通过与你们的利库德集团决裂而与传统的以色列思维分道扬镳，从而极大地削弱了利库德集团极右翼的中央委员会对以色列政治的意识形态方面的操纵。


The realization that withdrawal from populated areas, and thus an end to holding another people under permanent occupation, was necessary to preserve the Jewish nature of Israel clearly brought the two of you to the center of Israeli thinking.	您两位认识到，从定居地区撤出并且结束对另一个民族永久的占领，对维护以色列的犹太人性质是必要的。 这样就明显地把您两位带入到以色列人思维的中间地带。


On a much smaller scale, significant change has been taking place on the Palestinian side as well.	从另一个小的程度而言，巴勒斯坦方面也发生了巨变。


While I believe that the occupation, rather than the reaction to it, is the main cause of our conflict, the unilateral tahdia (“declared calm”) decision by Palestinian militant groups has reduced anti-Israeli attacks mightily, which shows that Palestinians also realize the limits of their military actions.	我相信，我们之间的冲突的主因是占领，而非对占领的反应。 巴勒斯坦军事团体决定单方面宣布停火极大地减少了反以色列攻击。


The decision by Hamas to join the political process by participating in the upcoming legislative elections shows that even this hardline Islamic movement has concluded that our conflict needs to be addressed by political rather than military means.	这就表明巴勒斯坦人也意识到其军事行动的局限性。 哈马斯决定通过参加即将到来的立法选举而加入到政治进程中表明，即是这样一个强硬派里斯兰运动也得出结论，那就是我们之间的冲突应该通过政治手段而不是军事手段来加以解决。


While I understand that you are an Israeli patriot, I believe that much can be done to reduce the tensions between our two peoples, eventually leading to genuine reconciliation and peace.	我理解您是一位以色列的爱国者。 我相信，在降低我们两个民族之间的紧张局势方面可以大有作为，最终导向真正的和解与和平。


As a start, priority must be given to face-to-face negotiations.	作为开始，应当把重点放在面对面谈判上。


Sharon and you might have felt that unilateral action was needed in Gaza, but the withdrawal from Gaza could have produced many more benefits for both sides had it been done bilaterally.	沙龙和您可能感觉到，在加沙地带需要单方面的行动。 但是，如果双方都采取行动，从加沙撤军对双方所产生的利益要大很多。


Direct talks should concentrate on two parallel tracks.	直接谈判应当集中在两个平行轨道上。


They should attempt to produce an immediate cessation of violence from both sides while simultaneously focusing on a permanent settlement of our conflict.	会谈应当试图双方立即停止暴力，同时集中精力讨论我们之间冲突的永久解决方案。


Contrary to territorial withdrawal, cessation of violence can be achieved only bilaterally.	与从被占领土撤军相反的是，停止暴力只能通过双方面实现。


Both sides should commit to an end to assassinations, shelling, bombings, and any other form of attacks on the other side’s military targets and citizens.	双方都应当承诺结束暗杀、轰炸、炸弹攻击以及对对方军事和平民目标的任何形式的攻击。


To be effective, such a cease-fire must contain a monitoring mechanism.	为了达到效果，此类停火必须包含监督机制。


Neutral foreign observers should be asked to be deployed in major hot spots and be asked to identify anyone on either side who violates any of the agreement’s clauses.	应当要求在主要的热点部署中立的外国观察员，并且对任何一方的任何人违反协议的任何条款都要请他们予以确认。


Alongside this effort, vigorous negotiations on a permanent settlement should start immediately.	除了这一措施外，应当立即开始有关永久性定居点的切实谈判。


Historically, cease-fires have survived only when they are backed by talks that both parties believe are genuine and serious.	从历史上说，只有在双方都相信谈判是严肃和诚心诚意的背景下，停火才能维持。


At the same time, the atmosphere among Palestinians and their attitude towards Israel must be improved, so that we can have a political environment that supports negotiations.	同时，巴勒斯坦人之间的气氛以及他们对以色列的态度必须加以改善，这样我们就可以有一个支撑谈判的政治环境。


Improving the daily conditions of life, particularly increasing Palestinians’ freedom of travel both between Gaza and the West Bank and within the West Bank, will also go a long way in helping to create a positive atmosphere.	改善日常生活，特别是增加巴勒斯坦人来往于加沙和西岸之间以及西岸内部的自由也将会大大帮助创造积极的气氛。


I truly wish you success in your responsibilities as acting Prime Minister and acting head of Kadima.	我真心祝愿您成功地履行您的代总理和前进党代理主席的职责。


Your efforts to move forward towards resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will generate significant improvement in the political atmosphere in the entire Middle East.	您的推进解决巴以冲突的努力大为改善整个中东地区的政治气氛。


But, whatever you do in the next few months to win the forthcoming parliamentary elections, please remember that the support that Kadima has received from the Israeli public derives precisely from the fact that it has taken a moderate centrist position.	但是，无论您在今后几个月做什么来赢得即将到来的议会选举，请记住前进党从以色列公众中得到的支持恰恰来源于它采取了温和中间立场的事实。


So please don’t allow yourself to be drawn into pandering to Israel’s radicals and hawks.	所以请不要迎合以色列极端分子和鹰派。


The support that you and your colleagues will get from Israelis and Arabs will depend on the resolve that you show in making serious progress in the peace process.	您和您的同事们从以色列人和阿拉伯人得到的支持将取决于您所展示的为和平进程中取得切实进展的决心。


That process, now as before, must culminate in an independent and democratic Palestine alongside a safe and secure Israel.	这一进程正如以往一样，必须最终实现一个独立和民主的巴勒斯坦以及一个安全的以色列。


Another Asian Wake-Up Call	亚洲警钟再次响起


NEW HAVEN – For the second time in three years, global economic recovery is at risk.	纽黑文——全球经济复苏再度告急，这是3年来的第2次。


In 2008, it was all about the subprime crisis made in America.	2008年，罪魁祸首是美国次贷危机。


Today, it is the sovereign-debt crisis made in Europe.	这一回则是欧洲主权债务危机。


The alarm bells should be ringing loud and clear across Asia – an export-led region that cannot afford to ignore repeated shocks to its two largest sources of external demand.	亚洲人应该清晰地听到了警钟——出口导向地区不能对其最大的两个外部需求源的反复震荡无动于衷。


Indeed, both of these shocks will have long-lasting repercussions.	事实上，两次震荡均将造成长期回响。


In the United States, the American consumer (who still accounts for 71% of US GDP) remains in the wrenching throes of a Japanese-like balance-sheet recession.	在美国，消费者（消费要占美国GDP的71%）正在日本式的资产负债表衰退中苦苦挣扎。


In the 15 quarters since the beginning of 2008, real consumer spending has increased at an anemic 0.4% average annual rate.	自2008年年初以来的15个季度中，实际消费支出平均年增长率只有0. 4%。


Never before has America, the world’s biggest consumer, been so weak for so long.	作为世界第一大消费国，美国还从未经历过如此长期的疲软。


Until US households make greater progress in reducing excessive debt loads and rebuilding personal savings – a process that could take many more years if it continues at its recent snail-like pace – a balance-sheet-constrained US economy will remain hobbled by exceedingly slow growth.	除非美国家庭在削减债务负担、重建个人储蓄方面取得了重大进展——按现在的缓慢节奏看，得许多年才能完成——深受资产负债表约束的美国经济将继续在缓慢增长泥淖中无法自拔。


A comparable outcome is likely in Europe.	欧洲的情况也差不多。


Even under the now seemingly heroic assumption that the eurozone will survive, the outlook for the European economy is bleak.	即使是在目前极为乐观的假设下——欧元区能够保留——欧洲经济前景也相当暗淡。


The crisis-torn peripheral economies – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and even Spain – are already in recession.	被危机摧残的外围经济体——希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、意大利，可能还包括西班牙——已经陷入了衰退。


And economic growth is threatened in the once-solid core of Germany and France, with leading indicators – especially sharply declining German orders data – flashing ominous signs of incipient weakness.	领先指标表明——如德国订单数据的显著下降——曾经无比坚挺的核心国家德国和法国的经济增长也受到了威胁，出现了初步的疲软迹象。


Moreover, with fiscal austerity likely to restrain aggregate demand in the years ahead, and with capital-short banks likely to curtail lending – a serious problem for Europe’s bank-centric system of credit intermediation – a pan-European recession seems inevitable.	此外，财政紧缩可能在未来数年内影响总需求，资本短缺的银行可能收紧信贷——这对欧洲的以银行为中心的信用中介体系来说是个严重问题——泛欧洲衰退已成不可避免之势。


The European Commission recently slashed its 2012 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% – teetering on the brink of outright recession.	欧洲委员会最近将其2012年GDP增长预测调低到了0. 5%，在全面衰退边缘摇摇欲坠。


The risks of further cuts to the official outlook are high and rising.	官方预测数据在未来极有可能进一步调低。


It is difficult to see how Asia can remain an oasis of prosperity in such a tough global climate.	很难看出亚洲如何能在全球经济气候如此严峻的形势下成为繁荣的绿洲。


Yet denial is deep, and momentum is seductive.	但否定是深层次的，目前的势头看起来十分强劲。


After all, Asia has been on such a roll in recent years that far too many believe that the region can shrug off almost anything that the rest of the world dishes out.	毕竟，亚洲在最近几年表现出色，太多的人相信，不管世界其他地区情况怎样，亚洲地区都能顶住。