Meanwhile, the traditional forum for EU-US talks, the Financial Markets Regulatory Dialogue – which brings regulators together at irregular intervals to haggle over lists of divergent regulations one by one – is all too often slow and circumvented.	与此同时，欧盟-美国谈判的传统论坛——金融市场监管对话（Financial Markets Regulatory Dialogue，该论坛不定期汇集各方监管者，就监管分歧问题逐一讨价还价）节奏太缓慢，也太容易规避。


The good news is that European and American policymakers have options for clearing the structural roadblocks.	好消息是欧洲和美国决策者可以做出清除结构性障碍的选择。


They should begin by developing a new “toolkit” to help countries not just meet existing standards, but also work together to improve standards in an environment of rapidly changing markets.	第一步应该是开发新的“工具包”帮助各国不但满足现有标准、还齐心协力在快速变化的市场中改善标准。


Whether implemented as part of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks or on an informal basis, mutual-recognition and substituted-compliance programs should become more robust, and they should provide procedural mechanisms for coordinating rule-making and administrative processes in real time.	不管作为跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系谈判的一部分还是作为非正式政策实施，互相承认和替代合规计划都应该更加鲁棒，并且应该为协调实时规则制定和行政程序提供程序性机制。


Moreover, coordinating mechanisms should be – to the extent possible – objectives-based processes measured against international commitments and best practices.	此外，协调机制应该尽可能地设计成基于目标的程序，以国际承诺和最佳实践来衡量。


Finally, given the interface between financial supervision and monetary relations, the Financial Markets Regulatory Dialogue should be revived alongside G-20 meetings of treasury officials and central bankers.	最后，考虑到金融监督和货币关系之间的交互，金融市场监管对话应该随G-20财政官员和央行行长会议重启。


Instead of relying on the multi-regional Financial Stability Board to hash out differences and set the regulatory pace, EU and US regulators should be encouraged to present joint solutions and reforms for wider international consideration.	欧盟和美国监管者不应该依赖多地区的金融稳定委员会消除分歧、设定监管节奏，而应该被鼓励拿出联合解决方案和以更广泛的国际考虑为目标的改革。


Of course, reforming the transatlantic regulatory architecture can do only so much for financial diplomacy, and national interests will always be important.	当然，改革跨大西洋监管框架只能为金融外交做到这一步，国家利益永远是重要的。


But, in a world of trillion-dollar capital flows and ever-higher stakes in a sound global financial system, even modest improvements can make a big difference.	但是，世界资本流规模已臻万亿，可靠的全球金融系统事关重大，因此即使是微小的改善也能带来极大的不同。


Better rule-making mechanisms are a good place to start.	更好的规则制定机制是一个良好的开端。


The Obama Anti-Doctrine	奥巴马的反教条行动


DENVER – US President Barack Obama was right to forego the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Bali, Indonesia, and focus instead on dealing with the political pathologies of the US Congress.	丹佛——美国总统奥巴马做出了正确的决定，放弃参加在印尼巴厘岛举办的亚太经合组织（APEC）会议，集中精力处理美国国会的政治问题。


But his decision, while correct, had the effect of reviving an increasingly common refrain in the East Asian region: What happened to the “pivot”?	不过决策虽然正确，但却在事实上再次让人们注意到东亚地区越来越普遍的限制：“支点”到底是怎么回事？


Conceived as a long-overdue shift in resources and attention from wars and other urgent challenges in the Middle East toward the vast expanse of opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, America’s much-vaunted strategic pivot immediately ran into a gauntlet of unintended consequences (the handmaidens of inconsistent and poorly articulated policy).	虽然被外界视为资源和注意力从中东战争和其他紧迫挑战向亚太地区无限机遇的期待已久的转移，但美国备受赞誉的新战略支点立即引发了意想不到的后果（这是政策不连贯且表述不清晰的必然结果）。


For starters, there was the perception that the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan amounted to a downgrading of US interests in the Middle East.	首先，有人认为美军撤出伊拉克和阿富汗实际是美国中东利益衰落的标志。


Coming as it did on the eve of the cataclysmic Arab Spring, the Obama administration has struggled with this unintended consequence of the pivot ever since.	因为恰好发生在灾难性阿拉伯之春革命的前夕，奥巴马政府一直尽全力消除新支点出人意料的后果。


Whoever in the administration devised the phrase “leading from behind” only compounded the problem.	政府“幕后领导”一词的设计者只是使问题进一步复杂化。


Second, many Europeans understood the pivot to Asia as implying a reduction in America’s commitment to the Atlantic alliance.	其次，很多欧洲人认为亚洲支点的潜台词是削减美国对大西洋联盟的投入。


Though several European countries have done relatively well in terms of maintaining consultations and commitments with the US, Europe’s leaders have watched with growing concern as the postwar security structure has faltered.	虽然有些欧洲国家较好地维护了欧美协商及承诺机制，但欧洲领导人对战后安全结构的动摇已经表现出越来越明确的关注。


To be sure, Europeans have contributed to this dynamic: witness their own haste in exiting the NATO mission in Afghanistan.	可以肯定，欧洲人同样起了推波助澜的作用：迫不及待地退出阿富汗北约行动就是证明。


But the increased sense of drift in Euro-Atlantic structures, fueled principally by Europe’s financial crisis and America’s prolonged political rift, leaves little room for optimism.	但欧洲金融危机和美国长期政治裂痕所造就的欧洲－大西洋结构越来越强的不稳定感令人们很难保持乐观情绪。


Finally, efforts to explain the pivot’s goal – US affirmation that Asia is now at the center of the world economy – have fallen flat from the start.	最后，明确支点目标（美国确认亚洲现在是世界经济中心）的努力从一开始就已经落空。


The Chinese believed that the entire purpose was to confront and contain their country’s geopolitical rise.	中国人坚信对抗及遏制其地缘政治崛起是美国唯一的目标。


And who could blame them, given the drumbeat of US policy pronouncements expressing concern about China?	联想到口口声声对中国问题表示担忧的美国政策声明，谁又能责怪中国有这样的担忧？


Indeed, in the weeks that followed the initial announcement of the pivot (which came just as the 2012 US election campaign was getting under way), China-bashing by American officials got worse.	事实上，在最初宣布支点政策的几个星期内（也就是2012年美国大选进行期间），美国官员对中国的抨击一直愈演愈烈。


A perfectly normal extension of the US-Philippine security agreement turned into an occasion to bemoan China’s claims on what former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the “West Philippine Sea.”	美菲安全协议完全正常的续订变成了宣泄对中国主权要求不满的场所，前国务卿希拉里·克林顿用“西菲律宾海”来称谓中菲的争议领土。


In this environment, the Chinese perceived a routine decision to send US marines to train in Australia as another link in the chain meant to hold China down.	在这样的大前提下，中国将美国派遣海军陆战队到澳洲训练的例行决策视为打压中国系列行动的一个步骤。


Even the opening to Myanmar was briefed to the press as a move designed to counter Chinese influence in that resource-rich country.	就连向缅甸开放的举措也在媒体通气过程中被作为对抗中国在这个资源富国影响力的举措。


Soon after these episodes, the US Department of Defense announced that it would begin relocating American forces to the western Pacific, focusing China’s attention further.	这些事件发生后不久，美国国防部宣布将着手进行美军向西太平洋的调动，这进一步引发了中国的关注。


Likewise, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a proposed mega-regional free-trade deal from which China has so far been excluded – has fueled concern in China regarding US intentions.	同样，迄今为止将中国排除在外的拟议中的区域综合自贸协定跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）也让中国人更加担心美国的意图。


But China has been far from blameless: witness its heavy-handed approach to its Asian neighbors in pressing its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.	但中国的做法也远非无可指责：其对亚洲邻国强加东南中国海主权要求时的高压姿态就是证明。


And, while growing signs of impatience with North Korea have been welcomed as a harbinger of an eventual policy shift, fresh thinking in China has not been sufficient to forestall US efforts to step up military cooperation with South Korea and Japan.	尽管中国对朝鲜越来越不耐烦的态度被视为最终政策转变的先兆而颇受欢迎，但中国新思维并没有阻止美国强化与韩国和日本的军事合作。


But perhaps China does not need to do anything to change US policy again.	但或许中国并不需要采取行动再次改变美国的政策。


Since Obama’s re-election, there appears to have been a pivot away from the pivot, toward something that can be described only as retro.	奥巴马连任后似乎渐渐偏离了所谓的亚洲支点，而更加趋向于“恢复原状”。


Secretary of State John Kerry’s effort to jump-start the Arab-Israel peace process was a laudable initiative.	国务卿约翰·克里重启阿－以和平进程的努力是一项值得称道的举措。


But, if the Arab Spring has taught us anything, it is that the Middle East’s real fault lines have little to do with Israel and much to do with the Arab world’s deepening secularist-Islamist divide and growing sectarian struggle between Shia and Sunni.	但如果说“阿拉伯之春”对我们有所教益，那就是中东真正的裂痕与其说是因为以色列，还不如说因为阿拉伯世界不断加深的世俗－伊斯兰鸿沟和什叶逊尼派别间越来越激烈的宗派争斗。


Israel is but a small part of this overall pattern.	以色列只是总体格局中的一小部分内容。


More recently, there was America’s event-driven shift toward cooperation with Russia on ending Syria’s civil war, following a chemical-weapons attack that left at least 1,400 people dead.	最近由于突发事件的驱动，又发生了美国为结束叙利亚内战，在化学武器袭击造成至少1，400人死亡后逐渐转向与俄罗斯合作。


All of this raises a fundamental question: Does the US even need an overarching design for its foreign policy?	所有这些都提出了一个根本问题：那就是美国是否真的需要从总体上设计外交政策？


If the outcome is to make its foreign policy less reliable and predictable – or, worse, susceptible to misunderstanding – then it certainly does not.	如果唯一的结果是降低其外交政策的可靠性和可预见性——甚至更糟，招致别人的误解——那么答案当然是不需要。


The new world order has given way to an order-less world, in which reliability and predictability have given way to rapid shifts in focus and fickle commitments.	新世界格局已经让位给混乱无序的世界，可靠性和可预见性已经让位给快速变化的重点和变幻无常的承诺。


And, sadly, this state of affairs seems to be emanating not from countries in crisis, but rather from the US itself.	更可悲的是造成这种局面的并不是身处危机的国家，而是美国。


Now that Obama appears to have a brief respite from his domestic problems, this might be an opportune moment for him to set out America’s foreign-policy priorities and explain how the US plans to pursue them.	现在，���巴马似乎面对国内问题时有了短暂的喘息机会，这也许是他确定美国外交政策重点并明确美国执行计划的绝佳时刻。


Is the pivot to Asia sustainable?	亚洲支点究竟是否可行？


What are America’s objectives in the Middle East?	美国在中东的目标是什么？


Is the US to be a kind of hectoring NGO, lecturing friends and detractors alike for not being more like Americans?	美国是否想要扮演恃强凌弱的非政府组织，喋喋不休地指责朋友和批评者他们为什么不更像美国？


And just what is the US trying to accomplish with Russia?	美国在俄国那里究竟想得到什么？


Can it identify ways to cooperate with this difficult, undemocratic state, in order to address issues of mutual concern?	为了解决共同关注的问题，美国能否和这个难以相处的非民主国家合作？


It is time for a tour d’horizon from Obama.	现在是奥巴马纵观全局的时刻。


His administration still has three years to go, and the world is waiting, watching, and, frankly, wondering.	他的政府仍有三年任期，全世界都在等待、观望、坦率地讲，充满了疑惑。


Facing Up to Chronic Disease	直面慢性病


MONTREAL – Many of us are terrified by the prospect of having a debilitating stroke or a fatal heart attack.	蒙特利尔—许多人担心有一天会中风或突发致命心脏病。


Few of us, however, respond as emotionally to the threat of chronic disease, a vague and elastic term that is mainly useful for organizing health services.	但是，很少有人对慢性病有类似的恐慌，“慢性病”一词含义暧昧又宽泛，主要用于组织卫生服务。


And yet chronic disease has become a major social problem that requires a collective response.	但慢性病正在成为一个主要社会问题，需要集体应对。


Historically, chronic disease referred to conditions lasting over a long period.	历史上，慢性病是指症状维持很长时期的状况。


But, with the increasing organization of medicine around specific diseases, the term has come to refer to an open-ended set of conditions including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes, but not infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis and malaria, or mental illness.	但是，随着围绕具体疾病的医学组织的增加，“慢性病”一词所指范围已没有边界，可以包括心血管病、癌症、糖尿病等，但不包括结核病和疟疾等传染病和精神疾病。


In the nineteenth century, chronic disease was considered problematic in part because sufferers took up scarce beds in hospitals that were increasingly focused on treating acute, curable diseases.	在十九世纪，慢性病之所以被视为问题，部分是因为患者占据了宝贵的医院病床，而医院日益专注于治疗可治愈的急性疾病。


But chronic disease soon became a wider public-health issue as the death toll from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes seemed to rise.	但随着癌症、心血管疾病和糖尿病致死人数的增加，慢性病很快就成了更大的公共卫生问题。


In fact, the initial increase in the number of reported deaths from these diseases most likely reflected better identification and diagnosis.	事实上，这些疾病报告死亡数量的最初增加最有可能是识别和确诊方面的进步。


Filling in death certificates is not an exact science, and doctors focus on causes with which they are familiar.	填写死亡报告不是精确科学，医生总是专注于他们所熟悉的死因。


Over time, though, the incidence of chronic disease almost certainly did rise in developed countries.	但是，随着时间的推移，发达国家慢性病发病率几乎确定地增长着。


As infectious diseases have been brought increasingly under control, more people live into old age, when they become susceptible to long-term illnesses.	随着传染病日益得到控制，更多的人能够活到老年，而老年人更容易得长期疾病。


As a result, chronic diseases now comprise a large proportion of health-care systems' total caseloads.	因此，如今，慢性病构成了医疗体系患病总数的最大头。


Our collective interest in addressing the problem of chronic diseases does not rest only on epidemiological statistics.	我们对于解决慢性病问题的共同兴趣不仅在传染病统计数字。


It also reflects deep, long-standing concerns about the effects of civilization: urban overcrowding, sedentary lifestyles, unhealthy habits like tobacco and alcohol consumption, overeating, and stress.	它还反映了长期存在的对文明的影响的深刻担忧：城市过度拥挤、久坐的生活方式、吸烟饮酒等不健康的习惯、过度饮食，还有压力。


Moreover, we have come to believe that most diseases, including previously hopeless conditions, can be prevented, cured, ameliorated, or controlled by scientific medicine, and that even those patients unlikely to benefit have a right to medical care.	此外，我们开始相信，大部分疾病——包括从前的不治之症——可以预防、治疗和减轻症状，或用科学药物加以控制，即使无法从中获益的病患也有权利获得医疗。


As chronic disease has become an increasingly prevalent social problem, it has been dealt with in two ways.	随着慢性病成为日益普遍的社会问题，人们开始用两种方法对付它。


The most common response is disease-specific.	最普通的应对办法是对症下药（disease-specific）。


The American Cancer Society and the American Heart Association, as well as the disease-based research institutes of the National Institutes of Health, are notable examples.	美国癌症协会（American Cancer Society）、美国心脏协会（American Heart Association）以及国家卫生研究局（National Institutes of Health）等基于疾病的研究机构就是显著的例子。


An alternative approach is to treat these illnesses as a single, comprehensive problem.	另一种方法是将这些疾病视为同一个全面的问题。


The earliest example occurred in the United States, where a focus on welfare measures and health insurance for vulnerable populations – the elderly, the disabled, and the very poor – led to a strong push to confront the chronic diseases widespread among them.	最早的例子出现在美国，关注脆弱人群——老人、残疾人和穷人——的福利措施和健康保险有力地推进了针对这一人群广泛存在的慢性病的治疗。


European countries, preoccupied with national health-care systems that addressed the needs of the entire population, took longer to move toward comprehensive strategies.	欧洲国家的国民医疗体系面向全部人口，花了更长的时间转向全面战略。


Both approaches have given rise to new forms of epidemiological surveillance.	两种方法都产生了新的流行病监控形式。


Since the 1950s, for example, the field has been extended to risk factors, a concept that grew out of debates about the health effects of tobacco and studies of cardiovascular diseases with multiple potential causes.	比如，20世纪50年代以来，该领域扩展到了风险因素，这一概念来自关于烟草的健康影响和对有多重潜在原因的心血管病的研究。


Some risk factors – moderate hypertension and high cholesterol, for example – have themselves become chronic diseases, requiring medical (and sometimes surgical) treatment and further contributing to the rise in illness rates.	一些风险因素——比如轻微高血压和高胆固醇——本身已成为慢性病，需要药物（有时是手术）治疗并造成发病率的上升。


A new vision of health care, which has grown out of the US managed-care movement, has recently heightened the relevance of embracing a comprehensive approach to treating these conditions.	一种源自美国的有管理的医疗（managed-care）运动的新医疗形式最近凸显出采取全面方法治疗这些状况的重要性。


Originally intended to cut costs, the goal now is to provide more appropriate care for a new era, the premise being that long-term care for many diseases requires forms of medical organization that are different from those geared toward acute care.	最初的目标是削减成本，而如今的目标则是为新时期提供更合适的医疗，其选角条件是对许多疾病的长期医疗需要不同于针对急性病治疗的医疗组织形式。


Acute episodes and expensive hospitalization can be avoided by providing expert team support for patient self-care.	急性发作和昂贵的住院治疗可以通过为患者提供自我护理专家团队支持避免。


The most successful and radical of these initiatives is the Chronic Care Model developed by Edward Wagner, an American doctor.	这类项目中最成功、最彻底的是美国医生爱德华·瓦格纳（Edward Wagner）所提出的慢性医疗模式（Chronic Care Model）。


Less sweeping is the Medical Home Model, also developed in the US, which seeks to create teams of caregivers to provide better access and continuity of care to patients suffering from multiple diseases.	不太彻底的模式是家庭医疗模式（Medical Home Model），该模式也源于美国，寻求组建医疗团队为患有多重疾病的患者提供更好的就医便利和���疗持续性。


Massive health-care systems cannot shift course easily or quickly.	大众医疗体系无法快速轻松地改变。


But efforts like these, by focusing on the need to provide appropriate and less expensive care for chronic diseases, constitute a small step in the right direction.	但这类措施通过专注于提供合理平价的慢性病医疗的需要，朝着正确的方向迈出了一小步。


Chronicle of a Currency Crisis Foretold	货币危机预言纪


CAMBRIDGE – The crisis in Greece and the debt problems in Spain and Portugal have exposed the euro’s inherent flaws.  No amount of financial guarantees – much less rhetorical reassurance – from the European Union can paper them over. After 11 years of smooth sailing since the euro’s creation, the arrangement’s fundamental problems have become glaringly obvious.	坎布里奇——


The attempt to establish a single currency for 16 separate and quite different countries was bound to fail.	希腊危机和西班牙、葡萄牙的债务问题将欧元的内在漏洞暴露无遗。


The shift to a single currency meant that the individual member countries lost the ability to control monetary policy and interest rates in order to respond to national economic conditions.	财政担保已无法粉饰太平———更不用说欧盟的口头承诺了。


It also meant that each country’s exchange rate could no longer respond to the cumulative effects of differences in productivity and global demand trends.	在平稳运行了11年之后，欧元制度的基本问题已显露无疑。


In addition, the single currency weakens the market signals that would otherwise warn a country that its fiscal deficits were becoming excessive.	为16个相互独立且迥异的国家设立一种单一货币的努力正濒于失败。


And when a country with excessive fiscal deficits needs to raise taxes and cut government spending, as Greece clearly does now, the resulting contraction of GDP and employment cannot be reduced by a devaluation that increases exports and reduces imports.	转向单一货币意味着各成员国不再能够针对自身经济状况控制货币政策和利率，也意味着各国不再能够根据生产率差异和全球需求趋势的累积效应调整汇率。


Why, then, is the United States able to operate with a single currency, despite major differences among its 50 states?	此外，单一货币制度还弱化了市场信号，使得财政赤字过度膨胀的国家得不到警告。


There are three key economic conditions – none of which exists in Europe – that allow the diverse US states to operate with a single currency: labor mobility, wage flexibility, and a central fiscal authority.	而当一国的财政赤字过大从而需要增税和削减政府开支时——正如眼下希腊的情况，由此造成的GDP和就业萎缩无法通过货币贬值、增加出口和减少进口来缓和。


When the textile and shoe industries in America’s northeastern states died, workers moved to the West, where new industries were growing. The unemployed workers of Greece, Portugal, and Spain do not move to faster-growing regions of Europe because of differences in language, history, religion, union membership, etc.	那么，为何美国50个州各不相同，却仍然可以实行单一货币？


Moreover, wage flexibility meant that substantially slower wage growth in the states that lost industries helped to attract and retain other industries. And the US fiscal system collects roughly two-thirds of all taxes at the national level, which implies an automatic and substantial net fiscal transfer to states with temporarily falling incomes.	有三个关键的经济因素——这些在欧洲都不存在——允许多元化的美国实行单一货币：劳动力的流动性、工资的弹性，以及中央财政体系


The European Central Bank must set monetary policy for the eurozone as a whole, even if that policy is highly inappropriate for some member countries.	当美国东北部的纺织和制鞋工业衰落时，工人便迁移到新产业蓬勃发展西部。


When demand in Germany and France was quite weak early in the last decade, the ECB reduced interest rates sharply.	但希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙的失业工人却由于语言、历史、宗教、工会等情况的差异而未能迁移到欧洲增长较快的地区。


That helped Germany and France, but it also inflated real-estate bubbles in Spain and Ireland.	此外，美国的工资弹性意味着即使某些州的产业萧条了，持续的较低工资增长率也有助于吸引和留住其他产业。


The recent collapse of those bubbles caused sharp downturns in economic activity and substantial increases in unemployment in both countries.	同时，在美国的财政系统中，国税要占总税收的三分之二，这意味着收入暂时下降的州可以自动且持续地获得净财政转移支持。


The introduction of the euro, with its implication of a low common rate of inflation, caused sharp declines in interest rates in Greece and several other countries that had previously had high rates.	欧洲央行必须在整个欧元区的层面上制定货币政策，尽管那样可能对某些成员国非常不利。 在2000年代早期，由于德国和法国需求不振，欧洲央行大幅削减利率。


Those countries succumbed to the resulting temptation to increase government borrowing, driving the ratio of government debt to GDP to more than 100% in Greece and Italy.	这提振了德法两国，但也助长了西班牙和爱尔兰的地产泡沫。 最近这些泡沫破裂，造成两国经济活动大幅萎缩和失业率持续上涨。


Until recently, the bond markets treated all euro sovereign debts as virtually equal, not raising interest rates on high-debt countries until the possibility of default became clear.	欧元的推行——以及其中所暗含的较低的欧元区整体通胀率——将希腊和其他高利率国家的利率大幅拉低。 这些国家经不住低利率的诱惑，提高了政府借贷，希腊和意大利的债务占GDP比重均超过了100%。


The need for massive fiscal adjustment without any offsetting currency devaluation will now drive Greece and perhaps others to default on their government debt, probably through some kind of IMF-supported debt restructuring.	债券市场一直将所有欧元区主权债务一视同仁，直到最近出现了明显的违约可能，才开始对高负债国家要求高利率。 希腊——或许还有其他一些国家——需要进行大规模的财政调整，又无法通过货币贬值进行缓冲，因此可能对其政府债务违约具体的方式可能是在IMF支持下进行债务重组。


The euro was promoted as necessary for free trade among the member countries under the slogan “One Market, One Money.”	当初，欧元的宣传口号是“一个市场，一种货币”，俨然为成员国之间进行自由贸易所必须。


In reality, of course, a single currency or fixed exchange rate is not needed for trade to flourish.	但在现实中，单一货币或固定汇率并非贸易繁荣的必要条件。


The US has annual trade turnover of more than $2 trillion, despite a flexible exchange rate that has seen sharp ups and downs in recent decades.	美元实行弹性汇率，几十年来波动很大，但美国每年的贸易量可达2万亿美元。


The North American Free Trade area increased trade among Canada, Mexico, and the US, all of which have separately floating exchange rates.	北美自由贸易区增进了加拿大、墨西哥和美国之间的贸易，而三国均采用浮动汇率。


Japan, South Korea, and other major Asian trading countries have very flexible exchange rates.	日本、韩国和其他亚洲贸易国家的汇率也颇具弹性。


And, obviously, only 16 nations within the 27-member EU’s free-trade area use the euro.	而且，显而易见的是，欧盟自由贸易区的27个成员国中，只有16个使用欧元。


Despite its problems, the euro is very likely to survive the current crisis.	尽管问题重重，欧元从当前的危机中生存下来的机会仍然很大。


But not all of the eurozone’s current members may be there a year from now.	但一年后很可能会有一些国家退出欧元区。


In retrospect, it is clear that some of the countries were allowed to join prematurely, when they still had massive budget deficits and high debt-to-GDP ratios.	回顾过去可以发现，很显然，某些国家在财政赤字很重、债务占GDP比重很高时便被草率地纳入了欧元区。


Moreover, some countries’ industrial composition and low rates of productivity growth mean that a fixed exchange rate would doom them to increasingly large trade deficits.	而某些国家的产业构成和较低的生产率增长速度意味着固定汇率会使其贸易赤字不断恶化。


For the rest, some mechanism of enhanced surveillance and control may be adopted to limit future fiscal deficits.	其他国家可能采用某些机制——如增强监管和控制——以限制未来财政赤字。


But, even with a smaller group of member countries and some changes in budget procedures, the fundamental problems of forcing disparate countries to live with a single monetary policy and a single exchange rate will remain.	但是，即使欧元区有所缩小并且预算程序有所改进，欧元所面临的基本问题——强迫情况各异的多个国家在单一货币政策和单一汇率安排下运行——仍然无法消除。


Rank Stupidity?	愚蠢排名？


BLOOMINGTON – “Cite your sources.”	布卢明顿—“引用来源。


The admonition rings in the ear of every slapdash undergraduate and corner-cutting postdoc.	”这一戒条回响在每一个马虎的本科生和想走捷径的博士后耳边。


But have we taken the emphasis on citation too far?	但我们是否过于强调引用了？


From an early age, we are taught to acknowledge those whose ideas and insights have shaped our thinking.	从小我们就被教导要感谢用思想和洞见影响我们的思维的人。


During our academic careers, we learn to provide correct attribution for the existing words, data, or images that we are using.	在我们的学术生涯中，我们学习为我们所使用的词汇、数据或图像提供正确的属性。


And “credit where credit is due” is the axial principle around which the entire scholarly publication system revolves.	而“感谢应该感谢的人”则是整个学术发表体系所围绕的核心原则。


In academia, citing the work of others is not a mere courtesy; it is a normative requirement.	在学术界，引用他人工作并不仅仅是出于礼貌；


Indeed, it is almost impossible to imagine an article being published in a reputable journal without an accompanying list of references.	而是一种规范要求。 事实上，几乎无法想象著名杂志会发表不列明参考文献的文章。


Plagiarism is one of the few acts that can bring a glittering academic career to a halt.	剽窃是极少数可以辉煌的学术生涯戛然而止的行为之一。


Citations contextualize research and help to orient the reader.	引用穿插在研究之中，有助于引导读者。


They allow the reader to evaluate the author’s work on the basis of the perceived quality of the selected references.	引用让读者可以在对其所选取的参考文献质量的印象的基础上评估作者工作的价值。


And they enable the reader to track down previously unknown but potentially useful work.	引用也让读者能够追溯先前不了解但可能非常有用的工作。


Eugene Garfield understood this.	尤金·加菲尔德（Eugene Garfield）明白这一点。


In 1955, Garfield created the Science Citation Index (SCI), a database containing all of the cited references across the most highly respected scientific journals, thereby capturing the sprawling web of connections among texts.	1955年，加菲尔德创建了科学文献索引（Science Citation Index，SCI），该数据库包括了名望最高的科学期刊中的所有被引用文献，构成了一张连接文献的庞大的网络。


As he put it, “By using the authors’ references in compiling the citation index, we are in reality utilizing an army of indexers, for every time an author makes a reference, he is in effect indexing that work from his point of view.”	正如他所言，“通过在编辑文献索引过程中使用作者参考文献，我们开始真正利用索引器的威力，作者每列举一条参考文献，事实上都是在为自己的观点编辑索引。


The SCI would enable researchers to follow chains of knowledge backward and forward along the citation links embedded in scientific literature.	”SCI将让研究者能够沿着科学文献中的引用链接上下追溯知识链条。


The SCI’s potential was not lost on the scientific community, whose members quickly adopted it – but not for the reasons one might expect.	SCI从未失去在科学界的潜力，学者们很快就接受了它——但原因并非人们所预想的。


The enrichment of the subject matter with previous analyses, connections, and conclusions regarding the same cited texts was certainly part of the attraction.	丰富的前人分析主题、联系和相同引用文献的结论显然都是吸引力的一部分。


More appealing, however, was the possibility of tracking the scholarly influence of oneself and others over time and across fields, and identifying the most highly cited scientists, papers, journals, and institutions.	但是，更有吸引力的是有可能以此追踪自己或他人在长期和多领域的学术影响力，并找到被引用最多的科学家、论文、期刊和机构。


Almost overnight, the humble bibliographic reference acquired symbolic significance, and science gained a scorecard.	几乎在一夜之间，谦逊的目录式参考文献（bibliographic reference）获得了象征意义，科学也有了记分牌。


But did science really need one?	但科学针对需要记分牌吗？


The SCI gave rise to multiple citation-based measures, with two, in particular, warranting mention.	SCI催生了众多基于引用的指标，其中有两个特别值得注意。


The first – another brainchild of Garfield’s – is impact factor (IF), which offers a putative indication of an academic journal’s quality based on the average number of times its articles were cited during the previous two years.	第一个也源于加菲尔德的构思，名为影响因子（impact factor，IF），该指标以所刊文章在前两年中平均被引用的次数为基础推定学术期刊的质量。


A high impact factor instantly boosts a journal’s prestige.	高影响因子可以立竿见影地提高期刊的地位。


Another notable measure is the h-index – conceived by the physicist Jorge Hirsch – which aims to measure scholars’ productivity and impact.	另一个值得关注的指标是h指数。 该指标由物理学家乔治·赫西（Jorge Hirsch）提出，旨在衡量学者的生产率和影响。


H-index accounting is straightforward: if a researcher publishes 20 papers that have each been cited at least 20 times, she has an h-index of 20.	H指数的计量方法非常直观：某研究者发表了20篇文章，每篇文章至少被引用了20次，则他的h指数就是20。


If she publishes 34 papers, each cited at least 34 times, she earns an h-index of 34.	如果他发表了34篇文章，每篇文章被引用至少34次，则它的h指数就是34。


Despite the well-documented limitations of these measures, their simplicity – not to mention the competition inherent to scientific progress – makes them widely appealing.	尽管这些指标有着广为诟病的局限性，但凭借着简明性——更不用说科学进步固有的竞争了——它们仍具有相广泛的吸引力。


As a result, they have been deemed meaningful by people who should know better.	因此，它们被应该是更明白的人认为很有意义。


Indeed, citation data have become the vital statistics of academia, with researchers routinely including IF data and h-indexes – along with raw citation scores generated from sources like Thomson Reuters’ Web of Science (Garfield’s database), Elsevier’s Scopus, and Google Scholar – on their curricula vitae.	事实上，引用数据已成为学术界的重要统计数字，研究者通常会在简历中写上他的IF数据和h指数——以及来自汤森路透（Thomson Reuters）的科学网（Web of Science，加菲尔德的数据库）、艾斯维尔（Elsevier）的斯高帕斯（Scopus）和谷歌学术（Google Scholar）等来源的原始引用分数。


Likewise, several annual university rankings – including the CWTS Leiden Ranking, the Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities, QS World University Rankings, and the World University Rankings – rely on publication and citation data in their calculations.	类似地，一些年度大学排名——包括CWTS莱顿排名（CWTS Leiden Ranking）、上海交通大学世界大学学术排名（Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities）、QS世界大学排名（QS World University Rankings）和世界大学排名（QS World University Rankings）等——的算法都基于发表和引用数据。


University presidents must work to boost their institutions’ citation records, even though they know that the validity and reliability of these data, and the rankings that they inform, are questionable.	大学校长必须致力于增加本校的引用记录，尽管他们知道这些数据的准确性和有效性以及它们所衍生的排名大有可疑。


The problem is not limited to academia.	问题不仅在于学术界。


Administrators are using such measures to assess the productivity of those they hire and fund, and track the downstream impact of the research and development projects they underwrite, with little regard for the limitations of such indices.	管理人员用这些指标评估他们聘用和给予资金支持的人的生产率，追踪他们所承担的研发项目的下游影响，丝毫不关注这些指标的局限性。


In countries like the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Italy, research-assessment exercises are inexorably creating a culture of quantification and accountability, in which citation data play an increasingly important role.	在英国、澳大利亚、德国和意大利等国家，研究评估工作正在无情地创造一种资格和问责文化，引用数据的重要性日益增加。


The more these “objective” indicators are used in research assessment and personnel evaluation, the more scientists feel obliged to play the citation game.	越多这些“客观”指标被用于研究评估和人事评估，就有越多科学家感到必须参与这个引用游戏。


Increasingly, that means gaming the system, by focusing on work that promises short-term yields, pursuing “hot” research topics, spending more time on self-promotion (facilitated by the proliferation of social media), and slicing and dicing their work to attract maximum attention.	逐渐地，这意味着与制度周旋，专注于能带来短期效益的工作，追求“热点”研究主题，将更多的时间用于钻营（社交媒体的兴盛起到了推波助澜的效果），将工作切割包装以最大程度地吸引关注。


The recent emergence of so-called “alternative metrics” (such as downloads, recommendations, Facebook likes, and Tweets) has intensified the pressure on researchers to stockpile multidimensional evidence of their influence.	最近出现的所谓“替代指标”（如下载、推荐、Facebook“喜欢”和Tweet等）更是加剧了研究者收集影响力证据的压力。


To be sure, the application of social analytics to the world of research and scholarship may yet provide important insights that make it easier to assess a scholar’s “true” contributions.	平心而论，将社会分析用于研究和学术界可以带来重要洞见，让我们更容易评估学者“真正”的贡献。


The challenge will be to manage the trade-off between transparency and triviality.	挑战在于管理透明度和琐碎化之间的权衡。


As Einstein purportedly said: “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.”	据说爱因斯坦曾说，“可数的未必重要，重要的未必可数。 ”


Economic gains in recent years have not made the typical worker better off, and as wealthy individuals have reaped the benefits of growth, poverty has become more concentrated.	近几年来，经济进步并未让普通工���境况变好，而由于富裕个体攫取了增长的收益，贫困变得更加集中。


Break Up Citigroup	拆分花旗集团


WASHINGTON, DC – America’s presidential campaign is already well underway.	华盛顿—美国总统选战已经上路了。


The election is not until November 2016, and very few candidates have formally thrown their hats into the ring, but the competition to promote and develop ideas – both behind closed doors and publicly – is in fully swing.	选举要等到2016年11月举行，目前只有极少数候选人急吼吼地加入其中，但刺激和发展观点（idea）的竞争——不管是公开竞争还是闭门竞争——已经如火如荼。


Earlier this month, Citigroup took advantage of this formative political moment by seizing an opportunity to score a tactical victory – but one that amounts to a strategic blunder.	本月早些时候，花旗集团利用这一关键的政治时期，抓住一个机会赢得了一次战术胜利——但这一胜利导致了一个战略大错。


Using legislative language apparently drafted by Citi’s own lobbyists, the firm successfully pressed for the repeal of some of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reforms.	用显然是花旗集团自身游说者操刀的立法语言说，该公司成功要求撤销2010年多德-弗兰克（Dodd-Frank）金融改革的部分内容。


The provision was then passed after it was attached to a last-minute spending bill – a tactic that ensured very little debate in the House of Representatives and none at all in the Senate.	该提案附于一项最后时刻的支出法案中获得通过——这一战术确保了它基本不会再众议院讨论，绝对不会在参议院讨论。


At a stroke, Citi executives demonstrated both their continued political clout in Washington and their continued desire to take on excessive amounts of financial risk (which is what this particular legal change permits).	花旗集团此举既证明了他们在华盛顿仍拥有政治实力，也表明他们想继续承担过多金融风险（这一特别立法变化允许这样做）。


Lobbying to be allowed to load up on risk is exactly what Citi did during the 1990s and 2000s under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush – with catastrophic consequences for the broader economy in 2007-09.	游说获得承担更多风险的许可正是花旗集团在20世纪90年代和21世纪初在克林顿和小布什任总统期间用过的伎俩——并在2007—09年给实体经济造成了灾难性后果。


As a result, breaking up Citigroup is under serious consideration as a potential campaign theme.	因此，拆分花旗集团正被严肃考虑作为潜在竞选话题。


For example, in a powerful speech – watched online more than a half-million times – Senator Elizabeth Warren responded uncompromisingly to the megabanks’ latest display of muscle: “Let’s pass something – anything – that would help break up these giant banks.”	比如，伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）在一次强有力的演讲中毫不妥协地回应了巨人花旗集团最新的秀肌肉行为：“让我们通过某些——随便什么——有助于拆分这些巨型银行的东西。 ”这次演讲在网上点击次数超过了五十万。


Defenders of the megabanks – Citi, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley – dismiss Warren as an avatar of left-wing populism.	巨型银行——花旗、JP摩根大通、美国银行、富国、高盛和摩根士丹利——抨击沃伦是左翼民粹主义的化身。


But this is a serious misconception; in fact, Warren is attracting a great deal of support from the center and the right.	但这是个严重的误导； 事实上，沃伦吸引了来自中间派和右翼的巨大支持。


Senator David Vitter of Louisiana is the most prominent Republican member of Congress in favor of limiting the size and power of the biggest banks, but there are others who lean in a similar direction.	路易斯安那州参议员大卫·维特（David Vitter）是国会中支持限制大银行规模和权力的最重要的共和党议员，但还有其他一些人观点与他近似。


Similarly, the vice chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Thomas Hoenig, a political independent, consistently warns about the dangers associated with megabanks.	类似地，政治独立人士、联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）副主席托马斯·霍尼格（Thomas Hoenig）一直在警告巨型银行带来的风险。


And former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, a Republican from Kansas, argues strongly for additional measures to rein in the biggest banks.	前FDIC主席、堪萨斯州共和党西拉·拜亚（Sheila Bair）强烈支持增加措施限制大银行。


From the perspective of anyone seeking the nomination of either of America’s political parties, here is an issue that cuts across partisan lines.	对于任何寻求美国两大政党提名的人来说，这是一个跨越党派鸿沟的话题。


“Break up Citigroup” is a concrete and powerful idea that would move the financial system in the right direction.	“拆分花旗集团”是一个具体且强力的观点，能让金融体系走向正确方向。


It is not a panacea, but the coalition that can break up Citi can also put in place other measures to make the financial system safer – including more effective consumer protection, greater transparency in markets, and higher capital requirements for major banks.	它不是万灵丹，但能够拆分花旗集团的联盟也能够采取其他措施让金融体系更加安全）包括更有效的消费者保护、更大的市场透明度和更高的主要银行资本要求。


From the left, the emphasis has been on the megabanks’ abuse of power and the great rip-off of the middle class.	在左翼看来，重点是巨型银行对权力的滥用以及对中产阶级的大压榨。


From the right, the stress is on the hazards of crony capitalism, owing to the massive implicit government subsidies that these banks receive.	在右翼看来，压力在于权贵资本主义风险——因为这些银行获得了巨大的隐性政府补贴。


But both left and right agree on the fundamental asymmetry that the recent “Citigroup Amendment” implies: Bankers get rich whether they win or lose, because the US taxpayer foots the bill when their risky bets fail.	但左翼和右翼都同意当前的“花旗集团修正案”所隐含的根本性的不对称：银行家不论输赢都能致富，因为美国纳税人会为他们失败的高风险赌注买单。


Potential Republican presidential candidates have hesitated to take up this issue in public – perhaps feeling that it will inhibit their ability to raise money from Wall Street.	潜在共和党总统候选人犹豫着没有将这一话题公开化——也许是觉得妨碍他们从华尔街筹集资金。


Among the Democrats, however, the opportunity seems to be much more compelling; indeed, avoiding a confrontation with Wall Street might actually create problems for a candidate (as Hillary Clinton may well find out).	但是，在民主党中间，这一机会的诱惑要大得多； 事实上，避免与华尔街起冲突也许会给候选人造成问题（希拉里·克林顿大概很认同这一点）。


The Progressive Change Institute is currently running “The Big Ideas Project,” whereby people can vote on what they regard as the most important policy proposals.	进步变化研究所（Progressive Change Institute）正在运作“大观点工程”（The Big Ideas Project），人们投票选择他们所认为的最重要的政策议案。


Three of the top ten ideas under “Economy & Jobs” are about imposing greater constraints on the big banks – and there is a sharp upward trend in support for Break Up Citigroup (full disclosure: I suggested this item for the website).	在“经济和就业”类的前十大观点中有三个与增加大银行约束有关——而对于“拆分花旗集团”（Break Up Citigroup）的支持更是急剧增加（充分披露：该主题由我建议该网站列出）。


This idea would play well in the Democratic primary elections (which start in early 2016).	这一观点将在民主党初选（将于2016年初进行）中起到很大作用。


And, because it forms the basis for responsible policies, it would attract support from centrists.	此外，由于这构成了负责政策的基础，因此也将吸引中间派。


And voters on the right like proposals that offer a credible way to end the favoritism – if not outright corruption – that has come to define the relationship between the top levels of government and Wall Street.	而右翼选民喜欢提供可信的结束徇私（favoritism）——乃至赤裸裸的腐败（已成为定义政府高层与华尔街关系的用词）——办法的议案。


“Break up Citigroup, end dangerous government subsidies, and bring back the market.”	“拆分花旗集团，结束危险的政府补贴，让市场回归。


The US presidential candidate who says this in 2016 – and says it most convincingly – has a good chance of winning it all.	”2016年美国总统候选人如能这样说——并且令人信服地这样说——将有很大的当选机会。


Wall Street for President?	坐视华尔街登上总统宝座？


WASHINGTON, DC – America’s presidential election is still nearly two years away, and few candidates have formally thrown their hats into the ring.	发自华盛顿特区——距离下一次美国总统大选尚余两年，也没几个候选人宣布正式参选。


But both Democrats and Republicans are hard at work figuring out what will appeal to voters in their parties’ respective primary elections – and thinking about what will play well to the electorate as a whole in November 2016.	但民主共和两党都在努力挖掘究竟哪些议题最能在各自的党内初选中赢得选民青睐——同时也在思考何种议题在2016年11月大选时更有利于全局。


The contrast between the parties at this stage is striking.	在现阶段两党之间的差异堪称泾渭分明。


Potential Republican presidential candidates are arguing among themselves about almost everything, from economics to social issues; it is hard to say which ideas and arguments will end up on top.	潜在共和党候选人正就一切议题进行内部讨论，从经济到社会事务无所不包； 很难说究竟哪种理念和观点会最终夺魁。


The Democrats, by contrast, are in agreement on most issues, with one major exception: financial reform and the power of very large banks.	相比之下，民主党这边的议题也是包罗万象，只有一个最重要的例外：金融改革以及超大型银行的势力。


The Democrats’ internal disagreement on this issue is apparent when one compares three major proposals to address income inequality that the party and its allies have presented in recent weeks.	相对于近几周民主党及其同盟提出的针对收入不均问题的三份主要政策建议，民主党内在上述金融议题上的内部分歧显得格外碍眼。


There are only small differences between President Barack Obama’s proposals (in his budget and State of the Union address), those made in a high-profile report from the Center for American Progress, and ideas advanced by Chris Van Hollen, an influential member of Congress. (For example, Van Hollen recommends more redistribution from higher-income people to offset a larger tax cut for middle-income groups.)	在收入不均上，总统奥巴马（在其政府预算及国情咨文中）提出的策略，民主党智库美国进步中心发布的一份重要报告，以及由知名众议员克里斯·范·霍伦推动的相关理念——议员建议在高收入群体中进行更多转移支付以抵消对中等收入群体更大规模减税所造成的影响——之间都只存在一些小差异。


Against this backdrop of programmatic unity, the difference of opinion among leading Democrats concerning Wall Street – both the specifics of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reforms and more broadly – stands out in bold relief.	在这种事先打好招呼一片大团结的背景下，民主党大佬们对华尔街的意见分歧——无论是对2010年多德-弗兰克金融改革法案的相关细节还是更广泛议题——就显得格外惹眼了。


On Dodd-Frank, Democrats – including Obama – are apparently of two minds on the extent to which they should stick up for their own reforms.	在多德-弗兰克法案上，民主党人——包括奥巴马——显然在究竟应在何种程度上坚持自身提出的改革方面存在着分歧。


In December, the White House agreed to a Republican proposal to repeal a provision of Dodd-Frank that would have limited the risk-taking of the country’s largest banks (in fact, the proposal’s language was drafted by Citigroup).	在去年12月，白宫同意了共和党人提出的一项提案，将法案中一条关于限制各美国银行巨头过度投机行为的条款废除（而该提案的文本正是由花旗银行执笔的）


More recently, however, Obama has threatened to veto any further attempts to roll back financial reform.	但最近这段时间，奥巴马威胁要对任何在金融改革上开倒车的行为行使否决权。


And now he is proposing to impose a small tax on the largest banks’ liabilities, which he hopes will encourage “them to make decisions more consistent with the economy-wide effects of their actions, which would in turn help reduce the probability of major defaults that can have widespread economic costs.”	如今他提出对各大银行的负债征收一小笔税项，希望这能“鼓励银行作出与自身行为对整体经济影响力更为相称的决策，而这将反过来有助于帮助减低引发广泛经济成本的重大违约事件的发生率。 ”


In contrast, the Center for American Progress report devoted very little space to financial-sector reform – in the authors’ view, such issues hardly seem to be a high priority.	相比之下，美国进步中心的报告只在很少的篇幅中提到了金融部门改革——在报告作者眼中这类事务似乎不算什么大事。


Van Hollen does have some concerns – and proposes a financial transaction tax to reduce speculative activities.	范霍伦却对此相当关心——并提出征收一项金融交易税以减少投机行为。


But a serious challenge to all of these views has now emerged, in proposals by Senator Elizabeth Warren, a rising Democratic star who has become increasingly prominent at the national level.	但有位在全国影响力不断攀升的民主党政治新星，参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦却拿出了一系列提案，极大挑战了上述观点。


In her view, the authorities need to confront head-on the outsize influence and dangerous structure of America’s largest banks.	在沃伦看来，当局应当直接挑战美国银行巨头们过度膨胀的影响力以及危险的架构。


Warren’s opponents like to suggest that her ideas are somehow outside the mainstream; in fact, she draws support from across the political spectrum.	那些反对沃伦的人喜欢将她的提案归结为某种非主流观点； 但事实上，她赢得了来自各派派别的支持。


In last month’s fight against Citigroup’s successful effort to roll back Dodd-Frank, for example, Warren’s allies included the House Democratic leadership, the Independent Community Bankers of America, Republican Senator David Vitter, and Thomas Hoenig (a Republican-appointed vice chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).	例如在上月试图阻击花旗银行修订多德-弗兰克法案的斗争中，沃伦的同盟来自于众议院民主党首脑，美国独立社区银行家联合会，共和党参议员戴维·维特（David Vitter）及托马斯·贺尼格（Thomas Hoenig）——共和党指派担任联邦储蓄保险公司的副主席人选。


Warren’s message is simple: remove the implicit government subsidies that support the too-big-to-fail banks.	沃伦所传达的信息很简单：撤销政府对那些大而不能倒银行的隐性补贴。


That single move would go a long way toward reducing, if not eliminating, crony capitalism and strengthening market competition in the financial sector.	这一举措将最终尽可能减少（如果不能根除的话）裙带资本主义并强化金融部门的市场竞争。


This is a message that plays well across the political spectrum.	这是一个受到政治各派欢迎的信息。


And growing support for Warren’s ideas helps the Federal Reserve and other responsible regulators in their efforts to prevent big banks from taking on dangerous levels of risk.	而沃伦支持率的不断增加也有助于美联储及其他负责任监管者着力防范这些大银行去冒超过警戒线的风险。


The big Wall Street banks have enormous influence in Washington, DC, in large part because of their campaign contributions.	华尔街银行巨头对华盛顿拥有巨大的影响力，这在很大程度上是因为他们手握大笔政治献金。


They also support – directly and indirectly – a vast influence industry, comprising people who pose as independent or moderate commentators, edit the financial press, or produce bespoke “research” at think tanks.	他们还支持——直接或非直接地——那些大型宣传机构，圈养一批假装持独立/温和立场的评论员，操纵金融媒体，或者利用智库机构来捏造一些早已定制好的“研究结论”。


These megabanks are making a determined attempt to repeal as much of Dodd-Frank as possible, and the House Republicans seem keen to help them.	这些巨头们决心一定要将多德-弗兰克法案尽可能废除，而众议院共和党人似乎也非常愿意助一臂之力。


This is not an issue that will fade away.	这可不是一件容易被抹去的重大事件。


The Democrats need to figure out their policy on Wall Street.	民主党人必须制定好自身针对华尔街的政策。


In the past, they have simply gone for the campaign contributions, doling out access and influence in exchange.	过去他们只会去追逐竞选经费，用自身的政治资源和影响力作交换。


It is now obvious that this is not consistent with defending what remains of Dodd-Frank.	而这种做法在维护多德-弗兰克法案剩余条款的斗争中已经变得不可取了。


Warren offers a plausible, moderate alternative approach to financial-sector policy that would play well in the primaries and attract a great deal of support in the general election.	沃伦提供了一个具有说服力，温和的替代性金融部门政策方案，而且会在党内初选中占优势并在总统大选中赢得广泛支持。


Will the Democrats seize the opportunity?	那么民主党人是否又能抓住这一机会呢？


Citizens versus Extreme Poverty	公民与赤贫


Twenty years ago, a grass-roots movement led by Rotary International, a voluntary organization with around 1.2 million members in more than 200 countries, decided to attack.	20年前，国际扶轮社领导的草根运动决定行动。 该社为志愿性组织，在200多个国家拥有大约120万会员。


As of the mid-1980’s, there were more than 300,000 cases of polio per year worldwide, despite the disease’s virtual elimination in the richest countries, where vaccination was routine.	到二十世纪八十年代中叶，全球每年发生30多万起小儿麻痹症，但是这种疾病在最富裕国家已消除，这些国家已将接种疫苗列入常规程序。


Rotary took on the challenge of getting vaccines to the poor, in regions with weak or non-existent public health systems.	扶轮社接受挑战，向公共健康系统比较薄弱或根本不存在的地区的贫困人口提供疫苗。


Rotarians dreamed not only of reducing the number of polio cases, but of eradicating the disease entirely.	扶轮社人不仅希望减少小儿麻痹症病例数量，而且希望完全消除这种疾病。


This goal is now within reach.	这一目标的实现如今指日可待了。


Rather than wait for politicians to take up the fight against polio, Rotarians led the way.	扶轮社人并非等待政客们奋起与小儿麻痹症作斗争，而是领导斗争。


A few years later, the World Health Organization, and then other international agencies and donor countries, joined the cause, creating a coalition of official and private organizations that now support Rotary’s vision.	几年以后，世界卫生组织以及当时其他一些国际机构和捐助国加入了这一事业，创建了目前支持扶轮社愿景的政府机构与私人组织联盟。


By 2006, the number of polio cases had been cut dramatically, to well under 3,000 cases per year.	到2006年，小儿麻痹症病例总数急剧下降，每年不到3,000例。


Complete eradication is in reach, but is still proving elusive, as small outbreaks have plagued one country or another in recent years.	完全消除小儿麻痹症为期不远，但依然难以捉摸，因为近年来小儿麻痹症的爆发困扰了一个又一个国家。


In some cases, such as Northern Nigeria, social resistance to the vaccine has blocked adequate coverage of the population.	有些情况下，如尼日利亚北部，社会对疫苗的抵制阻碍了人口接种的覆盖率。


Pockets of polio transmission also persist in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.	小儿麻痹症小范围传播现象在印度、巴基斯坦和阿富汗继续存在。


In a few other countries, the disease has been sporadically reintroduced by travelers from regions where polio has not yet been eliminated.	在其他一些国家，来自小儿麻痹症尚未完全消除地区的旅行者将这种疾病重新引入。


And, in rare cases, the vaccine itself has failed and led to infection.	罕见的情况下，疫苗本身不起作用，导致感染。


Still, despite the difficulties of rooting out the very last cases, the progress made against polio has been historic.	然而，尽管根除最后的病例有困难，诊治小儿麻痹症却由来已久了。


More importantly, Rotary’s leadership on polio offers a more general lesson in the fight against extreme poverty, hunger, and disease.	更为重要的是，扶轮社率先对小儿麻痹症进行诊治为与赤贫、饥饿和疾病作斗争提供了更为普遍的经验教训。


Even when politicians don’t lead, it is still possible for committed individuals and voluntary organizations to change the world.	即便政客不领导斗争，忠于职守的个人和志愿性组织依然可能改变世界。


The key is to link a bold idea with a practical and powerful technology, and then to push the idea and technology forward through mass citizen action.	关键在于，将大胆的想法与切实可行、功效卓著的技术联系起来，然后将想法和技术通过大规模公民行动推向前进。


These same lessons can be applied to the Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s), the targets for fighting poverty, disease, and hunger that the world’s governments adopted in 2000.	同样这些教训适用于《千年发展目标》，这是与贫穷、疾病和饥饿作斗争的目标，世界各组织于2000年通过。


The MDG’s are bold but achievable.	《千年发展目标》设想大胆，成效显著。


For example, they call for reducing by 2015 the proportion of the world’s population that was chronically under-nourished in 1990, and for cutting the child mortality rate by three quarters.	例如，它们呼吁，到2015年，减少1990年世界人口长期营养不良的比例，削减儿童死亡率三分之二。


The MDG’s also address the scourges of maternal death in childbirth, lack of access to safe drinking water, and killer diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and AIDS.	《千年发展目标》还述及产妇分娩死亡、缺乏安全饮用水和疟疾、肺结核和艾滋病等致命疾病问题。


Just as with polio, the fight against hunger, disease, and lack of access to safe water and sanitation can be carried forward with practical and powerful technologies.	就像小儿麻痹症一样，与饥饿、疾病和缺乏安全饮用水和卫生设施的斗争可以通过切实可行、成效卓著的技术取得进展。


Indeed, these technologies are so powerful that they can enable families currently trapped in poverty to escape it once and for all.	确实，这些技术非常有效，能够使目前陷入贫困的家庭永远解脱出来。


Consider hunger in Africa.	想想非洲的饥荒吧。


Most of Africa’s farmers, working tiny plots, do not produce enough food to feed their families, much less to earn an income.	大多数非洲农民在小块土地上耕种，打出的粮食不足以果腹，更别说赚取收入了。


The root of the problem is that Africa’s farmers are too poor to obtain the basic modern inputs—including high-yield seed varieties, fertilizers, and small-scale water management systems—that could enable them to double or triple their output of food and cash crops.	问题的根源在于，非洲农民太贫穷，无法获得基本的现代化农用物质—包括高产种子、肥料以及小规模水利管理系统—以便他们能够使粮食和经济作物产量翻一番或两番。


The solution is therefore not much more complicated than a polio vaccine.	因此，解决的办法并不比小儿麻痹症疫苗更为复杂。


If organizations like Rotary International can help African farmers to get a 50 kilogram bag of appropriate fertilizer and a 10 kilogram tin of improved seeds, the rise in farm output could be enough to relieve extreme hunger and help farm households begin to earn some income.	如果国际扶轮社这类组织能够帮助非洲农民获得50公斤一袋的适用肥料和10公斤一罐的改良种子，农业产量的增长足以缓解极端饥饿，并帮助农户开始获得一些收入。


Such practical approaches can solve many of the key problems of extreme poverty.	这种切实可行的办法可以解决许多赤贫的关键问题。


Consider, similarly, the death and illness caused by malaria, which can be reduced very sharply through the use of mosquito nets for beds and anti-malaria medicines.	同样，想想疟疾造成的死亡和疾病吧，疟疾可以通过使用蚊帐和抗疟疾药物大幅度减少。


An anti-malaria bed net costs just $5, lasts five years, and can accommodate two children.	抗疟疾蚊帐仅花费5美元，可以使用五年，可供两个孩子睡眠用。


Thus, for just $0.50 per year, each child can be protected by a bed net.	因此，每年仅花0. 5美元，每个孩子就能得到一顶蚊帐的保护。


And a $1 medical treatment can cure malaria if the child gets infected despite the bed net.	如果孩子在有蚊帐的情况下还感染了疟疾，花1美元治疗就可以将疟疾治愈。


Yet bed nets and anti-malaria medicines do not reach the people who need them, because the people who need them are too poor.	然而，蚊帐和抗疟疾药物���无法送达需要它们的人们手中，因为需要它们的人都太贫穷了。


Fortunately, the American Red Cross and other organizations have been following the Rotary model, using private donations and private volunteers to fill the gap left by our political leaders.	幸运的是，美国红十字会和其他组织效仿扶轮社，利用私人捐助和志愿者来填补政治领袖们留下的空白。


Red Cross chapters across Africa, in partnership with other organizations, are now distributing bed nets free of charge to impoverished families, in the same way that Rotary has been distributing polio vaccines.	非洲各地的红十字会与其他组织合作，采用扶轮社分发小儿麻痹症疫苗的方式，免费向赤贫家庭分发蚊帐。


The time has arrived for a massive effort by voluntary organizations to take up the MDG’s through private action.	该是志愿性组织付出巨大努力通过私人行动实现《千年发展目标》的时候了。


We need not wait for the politicians.	我们不必等待政客们的行动。


In a short period of time, the world’s citizens can make deep inroads in the fight against disease, hunger, and poverty.	在短期内，世界公民可在与疾病、饥饿和贫穷的斗争中取得长足进展。


Then the politicians will follow.	然后政客们就会仿效了。


The key is practicality, boldness, and, most importantly, a commitment by those who are better off to volunteer their time and money to bring practical help–in the form of high-yield seeds, fertilizers, medicines, bed nets, drinking wells, and materials to build school rooms and clinics—to the world’s poorest people.	关键在于实用、大胆，以及最重要的是，家境富裕的人们自愿花时间和金钱，为全世界最贫穷的人们提供切实可行的帮助的承诺—以高产种子肥料、药物、蚊帐、水井和建造校舍和诊所的材料的形式。


The Return of Repression	压迫死灰复燃


BERLIN – Governments around the world are taking draconian steps to suppress civil-society organizations, with measures ranging from restrictive laws and bureaucratic burdens to smear campaigns, censorship, and outright repression by intelligence agencies or police.	柏林—世界各国政府正在对公民社会组织严加压迫，所采取的措施从限制性法律和官僚负担到抹黑宣传、审查和情报机关或警察赤裸裸的镇压无所不包。


Whatever the means, governments are striving to interfere with the work of political, social, and environmental activists to an extent not seen since before communism collapsed in Europe a quarter-century ago.	不管采取什么措施，政府都是在竭尽全力干扰政治、社会和环境活动家的工作，其程度之深为四分之一世纪前欧洲共产主义倒台以来所未见。


Of course, governments cite all sorts of reasons, security concerns such as those relating to terrorism now being at the top of the list, to justify the repression of NGOs and other civil society groups.	当然，政府会拿出各种理由，如与目前作为重中之重的恐怖主义相关的安全顾虑等，来论证压迫非政府组织和其他公民社会团体的合理性。


But the reality is that security risks – which may well be genuine – are no excuse for the kind of blanket suspicion that governments are using as a pretext for silencing or prohibiting independent organizations.	但现实是安全风险——诚然可能确实存在——并不是政府以全盘可疑为由取缔或让独立组织噤声的借口。


This troubling trend does not seem to be a fleeting phenomenon, but a sign of fundamental changes in international geopolitics.	这一凌然不安的趋势似乎不是一个短暂现象，而是国际地缘政治发生根本性变化的信号。


Among the most important of these is the growing emphasis on “sovereignty” among emerging economies, from Egypt to Thailand.	其中最重要的趋势之一是从埃及到泰国的新兴经济体日益强调“主权”。


Indeed, as part of their claimed desire to protect the nation’s sovereignty, governments in developing and emerging countries now regard cash transfers from rich countries for, say, democratization processes, with far more suspicion than they did in the 1990s.	事实上，作为它们所宣称的保护国家主权的渴望的一部分，发展中和新兴国家政府目前对来自富裕国家的用于（比如）民主化进程的现金转移的怀疑比20世纪90年代深得多。


Viewing such aid to local NGOs as undue interference in their affairs, a growing number of governments in the global south want to maintain or recover full control over cash flows from abroad – especially if they are destined for civil-society actors, which, because of their international connections, are viewed as having divided loyalties.	越来越多的全球南方政府将这一对本国非政府组织的支持视为不正当干预内政，希望保持或恢复对海外资金流入的充分管制——特别是流向为公民社会行动方的资金，拜其国际联系所赐，这些资金被认为破坏国民的忠诚。


As a result, cash flows and networking among national and international NGOs, foundations, and other external donors are coming under ever stricter scrutiny by governments.	结果，国家和国际非政府组织、基金会和其他外部出资者之间的现金流和网络陷入了政府前所未有的严格检查。


Laws that restrict or prohibit the provision of funding to NGOs by external sources are among the most prominent instruments used to monitor or block the work of these groups.	限制或禁止外国资金源向非政府组织提供资金的法律是监督或阻挠这些群体工作的最主要的工具之一。


Such laws are in place or under consideration in some 50 countries worldwide.	全世界大约50个国家存在或正在考虑制定类似法律。


In Russia, for example, 12 foreign NGOs were put on a blacklist last July and threatened with a ban on any further activity in the country.	比如，在俄罗斯，12家外国非政府组织去年6月被列入黑名单，并被威胁禁止它们在俄罗斯的一切后续活动。


As cooperation with foreign organizations has become potentially punishable by law, Russian civil-society organizations have lost access to their financial lifeblood.	由于与外国组织合作可能被法律定罪，俄罗斯公民社会组织无法获得资金生命线。


In early February, after a fierce debate, Israel's Knesset passed in a first reading a bill stipulating that NGOs that receive more than half of their budget from foreign public institutions must disclose their funding sources.	在以色列，在经历了激烈的争论后，国会于2月初通过了一项法律，规定一半以上预算来源于外国公共机构的非政府组织必须披露资金源。


Governments are also cracking down on popular social movements.	政府也在镇压群众社会运动。


In recent years, local-level protests – opposing everything from poor working conditions to illegal logging, land grabs, and environmentally or socially damaging infrastructure projects – have proliferated.	近几年中，地方层面的示威——示威对象包括糟糕的工作环境、非法采伐森林、掠夺土地、对环境或社会具有破坏作用的基础设施项目等——层出不穷。


With digital technology giving local protesters access to political networks and a broad international audience, governments have come under growing pressure to accede to demonstrators’ demands.	数字技术让本地示威者能够联系到政治网络、接触到广大国际观众，因此政府答应示威者要求的压力日增。


But instead of bowing to popular pressure, the political and economic elites have, in many cases, preferred to crack down on the protests themselves.	但政治和经济精英并不屈服于公众压力，在许多情形中，他们反而更愿意镇压示威本身。


Moreover, they have implemented repressive media laws that amount to state control of the Internet, which they claim is necessary to preserve stability, fight terrorism, or defend national sovereignty from Western interference.	此外，他们实施了高压式媒体法律，由国家控制互联网，声称这是维护稳定、打击恐怖主义或防止西方干预主权的必要措施。


The denunciation of popular protests is not just the province of autocratic regimes.	谴责群众示威并不只是极权制度的“专利”。


Even democratic governments – such as those of Australia, Canada, and India – have resorted to claims that protests are externally controlled in order to discredit local resistance to, say, oil pipelines or coal mines that are supposed to generate profits and growth.	就连民主国家——如澳大利亚、加拿大和印度——也宣称示威受外部势力操纵，从而破坏本国群众对（比如）能产生利润和增长的石油管道或煤矿的抵制。


In all of these cases, the goal is the same: to preserve political power and/or secure the economic interests of those at the top.	在所有这些情况中，目的是相同的：保护政治权力以及/或者确保顶层人群的经济利益。


There is nothing new about rulers persecuting people who fight for human rights, gender equality, the rule of law, LGBTI rights, and socially and ecologically oriented economic policies.	统治者迫害为人权、性别平等、法治、LGBTI（同性恋和双性人）权利以及省会和生态导向经济政策而斗争的人绝非新鲜事。


Civil-society actors can and should make their respective governments uncomfortable.	公民社会行动者可以也应该让他们的代议制政府不好受。


They are watchdogs of official policy, drawing attention to unsound developments, initiating and focusing public debate, and offering political and social alternatives.	他们是官方政策的监督者，吸引人们关注不良发展态势，发起和关注公共争论，并提供政治和社会替代方案。


NGOs continue to be called upon in multilateral policy processes, such as helping to implement the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals or guarantee the outcomes of the Paris climate agreement.	诸多政策进程仍需要非政府组织，如帮助实施联合国可持续发展目标或保证巴黎气候协定的结果等。


The issue of shrinking and closing spaces for civil society must be added to the agenda of national parliaments, multilateral organizations, and international negotiation processes.	公民社会空间日益缩小和关闭的问题必须成为国家议会、多边组织和国际谈判进程的讨论事项。


Freedom of opinion, association, and assembly are the essence of democracy.	观点、结社和集会自由是民主的核心。


Efforts to limit such freedoms therefore must be regarded as a challenge to all democratic governments and to global cooperation – and they must be stopped.	因此限制这些自由的做法必须被视为对一切民主政府和全球合作的挑战——并且必须被制止。


Civil Society Unbound	解除对民间团体的束缚


MOSCOW – The challenges facing civil-society organizations are greater in Russia than in many parts of the world, but the challenges facing civil society itself are similar everywhere.	莫斯科——俄罗斯的民间团体机构面对着比世界其他国家更多的挑战，而全世界民间团体所面临的挑战有很多相似之处。


Indeed, around the world there is a gap between civil-society organizations and the societies they profess to serve.	实际上，世界各地的民间团体机构和他们声称服务的社会之间都存在鸿沟。


Civil-society organizations do not gain power through elections (legitimate or otherwise), but through reaching the broader world.	民间团体机构不是通过合法或非法的选举、而是通过接触外部社会来获取权力。


In short, their goal is to build civil society itself.	简言之，建设民间团体自身是他们的目标。


They are most successful when people behave as part of civil society without necessarily being “civil-society” professionals.	当人们按照民间团体成员的标准行事，却不一定以“民间团体”为业时，民间团体发挥的作用最大。


That is, they will do such things as take care of their own health, engage in public discussions or blog about safety conditions in their community, rate school performance, organize weekly runs for dog owners, care for their local forests or rivers- as part of their lives, not as part of their jobs.	换句话说，他们会关注自身的健康、参与社区安全情况的公众讨论、评价学校表现、组织养犬人每周竞赛、关注当地的森林和河流，并把这当作生活的组成部分、而不是一种工作。


One area of concern for civil society nowadays is the press and new media.	报纸和新型媒体是当今民间团体所关注的领域之一。


In many places today information is flowing more than ever, but mass media are under both political and financial pressure.	今天在很多地方信息比以往流动更快，但政治和财务的双重压力却困扰着大众媒体。


Most people think of a free press as a way to keep track of what governments are doing – and so it is.	绝大多数人认为舆论自由是跟踪政府所为的有效方式，事实也的确如此。


That is why the press as a whole, and journalists in particular, are so frequently targeted by the authorities.	这也说明为什么整体舆论，特别是记者，会如此频繁地成为政府的目标。


When media outlets aren’t owned – and tamed – by the authorities or people close to them, they still face censorship, intimidation, tax audits, and occasionally assassination of their journalists and editors.	如果媒体渠道不为政府或民众所有或所用，媒体的记者编辑们就难以逃脱审查、恫吓、税务监察，有时甚至是暗杀的厄运。


In Russia in particular, the situation is mixed.	俄罗斯的局势尤其复杂。


The government owns or controls most of the mass media – the major newspapers and television stations – but there is an abundance of mostly marginalized publications and radio stations (to say nothing of the Internet) that retain a remarkable degree of independence.	主要报刊和电视台等绝大多数大众媒体归政府拥有或控制，但也不乏被边缘化的报刊和电台（更不要说互联网了），保持着令人赞叹的独立。


They are not directly censored, but they operate under the chilling knowledge that they can be shut down on vague charges at any moment.	他们并不直接接受审核，却不得不在经营中面对随时可能因似是而非的指控而倒闭的令人齿冷的事实。


And, of course, most of them are struggling to survive financially.	当然，它们中的绝大多数还在为生存而奋斗着。


Yet there’s more to journalism than keeping an eye on the government.	但新闻媒体除监督政府外还有其他作用。


Journalism’s other task is to reflect a society back to itself – to spread an accurate picture of its current situation, to share information about the activities of private citizens and businesses as they build civil society, and to encourage citizens to become active in improving their own lives and developing their communities.	它的另一个作用就是忠实反映社会——准确记录目前的社会状况，共享普通公民和企业建设民间团体的行动信息，并鼓励民众为改善自身生活和发展社区做出积极的努力。


Consider health care.	以医疗保健为例。


As far as I’m concerned, the ultimate goal should be not so much a better health care system, but a population so healthy that it hardly needs health care.	在我看来，医疗保健的终极目标不是更完善的医疗保健体系，而是几乎不需要医疗服务的健康的民众。


Health problems may take you to a clinic, but many of them start with how you behave at home – what you eat and drink, whether you smoke or exercise or sleep enough, etc.	健康出现问题要去诊所，但恰恰是你在家中的所为导致了很多健康问题——你吃什么喝什么，是否吸烟、锻炼或睡眠是否充足。


This is the kind of thinking that was driving us at a recent health care working group gathered as part of the recent Civil Society Summit organized in Moscow by the Eurasia Foundation, the New Eurasia Foundation and the CSIS.  (I was there as a Eurasia Foundation board member.)	正是在这种理念的驱使下，我们参加了由欧亚基金会、新欧亚基金会和华盛顿战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）在莫斯科联合举办的民间团体峰会。 （我作为欧亚基金会董事参加了这次会议。


To tackle these problems, we came up with an “open data/information liquidity” project, which will advocate and organize the publication, exchange, aggregation, and analysis of health data – not just general statistics, but specific data about health outcomes in terms of drugs and treatments, hospital performance, and the like.	为解决这些问题，我们开创了“公开资料/信息流动性”计划，借此宣传并组织健康资料的出版、交流、搜集和分析工作。 这里所说的资料不是一般的统计数据，而是涉及药物与治疗、医院疗效和相关情况所致健康结果的具体的数据。


Of course, many of those statistics are not even collected, yet alone published.	当然，不少类似的统计数据甚至从未搜集过，更别提出版了。 但我们可以从现有的数据开始，并由此引出其余的需求。


But we can start with what exists, and by so doing create demand for the rest.	在美国，人们已经登录RateMDs. com和vitals.


In the United States, people are already rating their own doctors at sites such as RateMDs.com and vitals.com; third-party doctor and hospital ratings are available at HealthGrades.com.	com等网站为自己的医生打分，HealthGrades. com还提供医生和医院的第三方评估。


Civil-society groups don’t often run hospitals directly, but they can make their performance more transparent.	民间社团组织通常不直接参与医院的经营活动，却可以增加医院表现的透明度。


So there are plans afoot to develop and distribute tools to analyze information, discover correlations (data-mining), and display the results as graphs and charts.	因此目前正在落实计划，研究并分发相关的信息分析工具，发现其中的关联之处（资料勘察），并以图形和表格的形式显示结果。


But, again, health really begins at home, so the real victory – and one where such civil-society cooperation may have a more immediate impact – is to give people better data about themselves and what they should be doing for their own health.	但还要强调，真正的健康���要从家中开始，因此真正的胜利是让民众更多地了解自身状况，了解应当为自身健康做些什么。 上文所说的民间团体合作对这一领域的影响可能更为直接。


That includes everything from nutritional information and baby care, to (ultimately) records of each person’s own health and treatments, and it starts with using new media to reach people where they live, with content that’s relevant.  In the Soviet Union, they used to call this “sanitary propaganda,” but it was widely disregarded.	这涵盖从营养信息、幼儿护理到个人自我健康和诊疗记录的方方面面，第一步可能是采用新媒介与人沟通相关的医疗信息。 在苏联，人们曾称之为“卫生运动”，但当时人们的反应并不积极。


One Russian friend told me, “Whenever we would read an article about the health dangers of butter, we would immediately run out and buy as much butter as we could find, because we knew it meant there would be a butter shortage.”	一位俄罗斯朋友对我说，“每当我们看完一篇讲述黄油健康危险的文章之后，我们会立即出去购买尽可能多的黄油，因为我们知道这意味着黄油会供不应求。 ”


Today, that type of information is called “healthy lifestyle promotion.”	今天，那类信息被称为“健康生活方式倡导。


We are also working on a project along these lines, reaching out to target populations with two-way new media such as the Internet and mobile phones, rather than harangues in newspapers and TV.	”我们也在推进这方面的计划，借助互联网和手机等双向新媒介接触目标群众，而不是在报纸和电视上喋喋不休。


Imagine a program where pregnant women could sign up by cell phone for weekly reminders and updates, and to answer questions such as, “Is the baby kicking?”	比如孕妇可以注册保健计划，通过手机收取每周内容更新和提示，并回答类似，“孩子是否在动？ ”等问题。


If not, she could be referred to a local clinic.	如果她回答没有，她可能会被转到当地诊所接受治疗。


When I made those same points in a wrap-up to the Civil Society Summit as a whole, I was interrupted by none other than US president Barack Obama, who was in Moscow for his summit with President Dmitry Medvedev but also took the time to listen our gathering of civil-society organizations.	当我在民间团体峰会结束讲话中谈到这些问题的时候，打断我的不是别人而是美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马，他来莫斯科参加与德米特里·梅德韦杰夫总统的峰会，在百忙中抽出时间旁听了我们民间团体机构的会议。


Obama apologized for arriving late, and added: “That’s why we have civil society.	奥巴马首先对迟到表示抱歉，并补充说：“那正是我们需要民间团体的原因。


You just can’t rely on politicians!”	你不能事事依靠政治家！ ”


Clarity about Austerity	紧缩之辨


MILAN – I have just had the privilege of speaking at the main annual conference of Germany’s Economic Council, the economic and business arm of the Christian Democratic Union, the current governing party.	米兰—我刚刚获得了在德国经济委员会主年会演讲的荣幸。 德国经济委员会是当前执政党基督教民主联盟的经济和商业部门。


Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble were among the other speakers.	总理默克尔和财政部长朔伊布勒也将会上讲了话。


It was an interesting event – and, more important, an encouraging one.	这是一次有趣的会议，更重要的是，这是一次振奋人心的大会。


It seemed clear that Germany (or at least this rather large gathering of government, business, and labor leaders) remains committed to the euro and to deeper European integration, and recognizes that success will require Europe-wide burden-sharing to overcome the ongoing eurozone crisis.	显然，德国（或至少政府、商界和劳动者领袖所组成的集体）仍坚持支持欧元和深化经济一体化的立场，并认为成功与否取决于旨在克服发酵中的欧元区危机的泛欧洲负担共担机制。


The reforms in Italy and Spain are rightly reviewed as crucial, and there appears to be a deep understanding (based on Germany’s own experience in the decade and a half following reunification) that restoring competitiveness, employment, and growth takes time.	意大利和西班牙的改革被正确地认为具有关键意义，重塑竞争力、就业和增长需要时间这一观点也获得了深入的理解（这一理解的基础是德国自身重新统一15年来的经验）。


Greece has no good options, but a serious contagion risk remains to be contained in order to prevent derailment of the fiscal and growth-oriented reforms in Italy and Spain.	希腊没有什么好选择，但如果想要防止意大利和西班牙财政和增长导向改革受到阻挠，就必须设法解决巨大的传染风险。


In the face of high systemic risk, private capital is leaving banks and the sovereign-debt markets, causing governments’ borrowing costs to rise and bank capitalization to fall.	在系统性风险高企的情况下，私人资本正在逃离银行和主权债务市场，导致政府借贷成本升高、银行资本充足率下降。


This in turn threatens the functioning of the financial system and the effectiveness of the reform programs.	这反过来又威胁到金融系统的运转和改革措施的效率。


Thus, the central European Union institutions, along with the International Monetary Fund, have an important role to play in stabilization and the transition to sustainable growth.	因此，中央欧盟机构（以及IMF）在稳定和朝可持续增长转型方面起着至关重要的作用。


Their efforts are needed to bridge the gap created by the exodus of private capital, thereby enabling the reform programs to be completed and begin to take effect.	欧洲需要它们采取行动填补私人资本逃离留下的空白，从而让改革措施得以完成并开始显现效果。


The IMF’s role reflects the huge stake that the rest of the world – advanced and developing countries alike – has in Europe’s recovery: it is a high-return investment.	IMF的角色体现着世界其他地区在欧洲复苏问题上的利益——不管是发达国家还是发展中国家——这是一笔高回报投资。


All of this seemed to me to be well understood among German politicians and business leaders.	在我看来，德国政客和商界领导人对此心知肚明。


Moreover, this kind of support is and should be conditional on the extent of the reforms carried out in Italy and Spain, the eurozone’s third- and fourth-largest economies, respectively.	此外，这类支持（应该）以意大利和西班牙（分别是欧元区第三和第四大经济体）改革表现为条件。


Labor-market liberalization in pursuit of competitiveness and growth is crucial – and remains to be implemented.	劳动力市场自由化以提振竞争力和增长至关重要，且仍有待实施。


Buying time for reform to work requires socialization of short-term risk.	为改革减小争取时间要求将短期风险社会化。


There is no other way to keep bond yields under control and banks functioning, and there is no ironclad guarantee that the reform programs needed to do the job will be approved.	除此之外没有第二种办法可以控制债券收益率、保证银行运转，也没人能够保证必须实施的改革计划可以被批准。


Eurobonds, viable in the longer term, are thus premature, because they imply a relaxation of conditionality, thereby weakening incentives to implement reforms.	因此，尽管从长期看欧元债券是可行的，但现阶段推出还为时过早，因为这意味着放宽条件，从而削弱改革实施的激励。


But if it all works, sharing risk now will not be expensive in the end. It might even yield a positive return.	但如果一切顺利，那么在当下分担风险的最终代价不会很大，甚至还能产生净回报。


What, then, of the much-discussed conflict between austerity and growth?	那么，如何看待被激烈讨论的紧缩和增长之间的冲突？


I believe that it is based on a fairly serious misunderstanding.	我认为，此冲突基于一个被严重误解的基础。


For Germans, austerity, in the form of sustained wage and income restraint, was an important part of the growth-oriented reforms that their country completed in 2006.	对德国来说，紧缩——表现为持续的工资和收入抑制——是该国于2006年完成的增长导向改革的重要组成部分。


Much time and effort was devoted to ensuring that the considerable burden of restoring flexibility, productivity, and competitiveness was shared equitably across the population.	德国人花费了巨大的时间和精力确保重塑灵活性、生产率和竞争力的沉重负担由全体德国人公平地共同承担。


But, on the receiving end of the message in southern Europe (and across the Atlantic), “austerity” is interpreted largely in fiscal terms – as an excessively rapid and potentially growth-destroying drive to cut deficits faster than the economy can structurally adjust and fill the gap in aggregate demand.	但是，接受此信息的南欧（和大西洋沿岸）将“紧缩”解读成一个财政词汇——过快的、可能对增长造成毁灭性影响的赤字削减计���，而不是让经济实现结构性调整并填补总需求空白。


In other words, harsh austerity is being viewed largely through a Keynesian lens.	换句话说，南欧在用凯恩斯主义的视角看待紧缩。


Finding the right balance between excessively rapid and dangerously slow deficit reduction is important, and not all that easy.	找到赤字削减过快和过慢之间的正确平衡点很重要，而且绝非易事。


But that is just one component of rebalancing.	但这只是再平衡的要点之一。


Growth is essential to bringing down public debt/GDP ratios, and thus is a key part of fiscal stabilization.	增长是降低公债/GDP比率的关键，因此也是财政稳定的关键。


And it is true that the benefits of deficit reduction, if achieved too fast, will be more than offset by the negative effect on growth.	与此同时，如果赤字削减太快，其好处将不及增长受挫带来的弊端。


At the same time, to restart an economy’s growth and employment engines, other measures are needed, and vary somewhat across countries, owing to different initial conditions.	与此同时，为了重启经济增长和就业引擎，我们还需要其他政策，而每个国家的初始条件不同，所需的政策也不一样。 但一般来说，都需要移除劳动力、产品和服务市场的刚性和其他壁垒；


But they generally include removing rigidities and other barriers to competition in labor, product, and service markets; investment in skills, human capital, and the technology base of the economy; and rebuilding safety nets in ways that promote and support, rather than impede, structural adjustment.	投资于技能、人力资本和其他经济技术基础； 以及重建能刺激和支持（而不是妨碍）结构性调整的安全网。


These reforms require the sacrifice of certain kinds of protections, as well as of income and consumption growth.	这些改革需要牺牲一些保护措施以及收入和消费的整张。


The benefits come in the form of sustainable patterns of growth and employment in the future.	其好处在于实现未来可持续的增长和就业模式。


Discipline and austerity thus entail inter-temporal and intergenerational choices about the price to be paid now – and how fairly that burden is to be borne – for greater economic opportunity and social stability in the future.	因此，纪律和紧缩包含了跨期和代际选择——应该在当下付出怎样的代价（以及这一代价能够以多大的公平度被分担）换取未来更大的经济机遇和社会稳定。


After all, restoring stability and growth is only partly about reviving short-term aggregate demand.	说到底，重塑稳定和增长与振兴短期总需求之间只是部分相关。


It is also about structural reform and rebalancing, which comes at a cost.	重塑稳定和增长还需要结构性改革和在平衡，而这不可能免费获得。


Achieving a sustainable pattern of growth requires choices that affect not just the level of aggregate demand, but also its composition – for example, investment versus consumption.	实现可持续增长模式所需要的选择不仅影响总需求水平，也影响总需求的组成——比如投资和消费的比重。


Whether one calls this austerity or something else is a matter of semantics.	把它称为紧缩还是其他东西只是个用语问题。


But the confusion that has resulted is anything but harmless.	但由此产生的混淆代价沉重。


On the contrary, it has become a major impediment to a common understanding of current challenges, and thus to achieving a broad consensus on the right path forward – one with well-defined and differentiated responsibilities – in confronting them.	它已成为认识共同挑战的主要障碍，也阻挡着我们就应对挑战的正确前进方向——以及明确不同国家所需承担的责任——形成广泛共识。


Clarity about Diamonds	把钻石说“清楚”


PRINCETON – Diamonds have an image of purity and light. They are given as a pledge of love and worn as a symbol of commitment.	发自普林斯顿——钻石是纯洁与柔情的代表，是爱的宣言，是承诺的象征。


Yet diamonds have led to gruesome murders, as well as widespread rapes and amputations.	但是钻石的背后也蕴藏着惨不忍睹的杀戮，数不胜数的强奸和滴血的残肢。


Charles Taylor, a former president of Liberia currently facing war crimes charges at a special court in The Hague, is alleged to have used diamonds to fund rebels in Sierra Leone’s civil war.  The case against Taylor represents only one of several examples in which diamonds have facilitated widespread human rights violations.	利比里亚前总统查理·泰勒用钻石来资助塞拉利昂内战中的反对派，并因此在海牙特别法庭受到战争罪指控。 但此案只不过是利用钻石侵犯人权的众多案件之一罢了。


When diamonds’ role in fueling violent conflict in Africa gained worldwide attention, the diamond industry established the Kimberley Process in order to keep “blood diamonds” out of international trade.	当人们终于意识到钻石也能为暴力冲突火上浇油时，钻石行业建立起了一套名为“金伯利进程”的审核程序，确保“血钻”无法进入国际贸易环节。


The initiative has met with some success, although it has not completely halted trade in diamonds from conflict-torn countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo.	虽然该进程未能完全阻止那些产自刚果民主共和国等战乱国家的钻石入市流通，但它也的确取得了了一些成效。


Recently, however, concern has been expressed – from within the diamond trade – that the scope of the Kimberley Process is too limited, and that consumers have thus been lulled into believing that there are no longer any ethical problems with diamonds. That is far from the truth.	但最近，有些钻石界人士开始对金伯利进程感到忧虑，认为它还是存在局限性，而消费者则因此误以为只要有了这个进程，钻石就不再与道德问题沾边，但事实并非如此。


The problem came to a head this year when the Kimberley Process began to certify diamonds from Marange, in Zimbabwe.	就在今年金伯利进程开始对来自津巴布韦马朗地区的钻石进行认证时，矛盾终于爆发了。


The Marange diamond field, discovered in 2006, is one of the richest ever found.	要知道2006年发现的马朗钻矿是迄今为止蕴藏量最丰富的钻矿。


According to Diamonds and Clubs, a recent report from Partnership Africa Canada, soldiers have press-ganged peasant farmers into working in mining syndicates at Marange.	根据非洲与加拿大合作组织最近公开发布的《钻石与大棒》报告，当地士兵强迫农民前往马朗为采矿企业干活。


The soldiers then take half the proceeds.	而采矿的收益的一半则归这些士兵所有。


There have also been extensive beatings and arbitrary detentions.	整个过程充满了无情的殴打以及肆意的囚禁。


When Farai Maguwu, a Zimbabwean human rights activist, disseminated information about the abuses, he was arrested (he has since been released).	而津巴布韦人权分子法莱·玛古乌（Farai Maguwu）则在揭露这一事件后立刻遭到了逮捕（后来被释放）。


Zimbabwean authorities claim that the violent human rights abuses have stopped, but the ethical problem with Marange diamonds goes much deeper.	尽管津巴布韦政府当局声称这一侵犯人权的惨案已经终结，但马朗钻石所蕴含的道德问题却引起了人们进一步的质疑。


Soon after the field was discovered, the Zimbabwean military took control of the area.	在该矿被发现后不久，军队就进驻了该区域。


According to the Zimbabwean finance minister, Tendai Biti, four years after the military took over the diamond fields, the national treasury has received not one penny of royalties from the sale of Marange diamonds.	据财政部部长滕达伊·比蒂所说，在军方控制这一钻矿的四年里，政府并未从马朗钻石贸易中获得分毫收益。


Zimbabwe’s military and political elite has appropriated the diamond field’s immense wealth for itself, with no benefits for the millions of desperately poor Zimbabweans who need the kind of services that the country has the resources to provide.	津巴布韦军方和政治精英私吞了钻矿带来的巨大财富，并置数百万赤贫的津巴布韦人民于水火，而这些贫民亟待政府用资源来换取必需的公共服务。


This is not, of course, the first time that the discovery of resources in an undeveloped country has led to riches for a few rather than greater prosperity for all.	一个穷国发现了矿产资源却只养肥了少数人的事例早就不是什么新鲜事了。


Teodoro Obiang, the dictator of tiny, oil-rich Equatorial Guinea, has an official salary of $60,000, but owns six private jets and a $35 million house in Malibu, as well as other houses in Maryland and Capetown and a fleet of Lamborghinis, Ferraris, and Bentleys.	特奥多·罗奥比昂这位产油小国赤道几内亚的独裁者只有6万美元正式年薪，却拥有6架私人飞机，一间在马里布市价值350万美元的豪宅，同时在马里兰和开普敦等地还拥有多处房产以及一大堆林宝坚尼，法拉利和本特利名车。


Most of the people over whom Obiang rules live in extreme poverty, with an average life expectancy of 49 years and an infant mortality rate of 87 per 1,000 live births (in other words, more than one child in twelve dies before its first birthday).	在奥比昂治下，绝大部分人民过着极端贫困的生活，人均寿命只有49岁，新生婴儿死亡率为8. 7%（这意味着每12个婴儿里面就会有超过1个活不过一周岁）。


Nigeria and Angola are other glaring examples of countries that have failed to use their oil wealth for the benefit of their people.	而在未能运用本国丰富的石油资源为国民造福的国家里，尼日利亚和安哥拉也堪称“模范”。


Paradoxically, resource-rich developing countries are often worse off than comparable countries that lack those resources.	但令人感到荒谬的是，资源丰富的发展中国家通常要比资源匮乏的发展更差。


One reason for this is that large resource endowments provide a huge financial incentive for attempts to overthrow the government and seize power.	一种解释是，巨大的资源品赋为颠覆政府攫取权力���供了极大的激励。


Rebels know that if they succeed, they will gain immense personal wealth, be able to reward those who backed their coup, and have enough arms to keep themselves in power, no matter how badly they rule.	因为造反者知道，一旦造反成功，他们将获得巨额的私人财富，可以报答那些幕后支持者，并豢养大批的武装力量来维护自己的统治，而统治得好坏根本不要紧。


Unless, of course, some of those whom they arm are themselves tempted by the prospect of controlling all that wealth.	当然如果他们内部的人为了独霸全部财富而自相残杀，那就另当别论了。


Thus, the resources that should benefit developing countries instead become a curse that brings corruption, coups, and civil wars.	于是乎，那些本该为发展中国家带来福祉的资源反倒成了引发腐败，政变和内战的诅咒了。


If we use goods made from raw materials that are obtained from a poor country without the proceeds being used to benefit the people of that country, we become complicit in a particularly iniquitous form of grand larceny.	如果我们使用了来自某贫困国家的原材料所制成的产品，却没有合理的程序来为该国的人民造福，那么我们与盗贼又有何区别？


It is therefore encouraging that concerns about Zimbabwean diamonds are being raised within the diamond trade itself.	但令人欣慰的是，津巴布韦生产的钻石已经引起了钻石行业的关注。


The Rapaport Group, an international network of companies providing services to the diamond industry, refuses to list Marange diamonds on its diamond-trading platform, RapNet.	为钻石行业提供专业服务的跨国公司拉帕波特集团拒绝马郎钻石在其钻石交易平台RapNet上登记交易。


Martin Rapaport, chairman of the group, has called for free access to the diamond fields by non-governmental organizations and industry representatives to monitor the human rights situation.	该集团的主席马丁·拉帕波特呼吁说，非政府组织与行业代表应被允许自由进入钻矿以监察那里的人权状况。


More significantly, in a speech in Mumbai earlier this year, he laid out requirements for legitimizing Marange diamonds that included some assurance that “the revenues from the diamond sales are distributed legally and in a way that reasonably and fairly benefits the people of Zimbabwe.”	更重要的是，今年早些时候，在孟买的一次讲话里，他提出，要让马郎钻石获得合法交易的资格，则必须满足下列要求——钻石贸易的收益必须合法分配，以求能够合理公平地造福津巴布韦的人民。


There is a need for higher standards than those set by the Kimberley Process.	我们需要设定一个比金伯利进程更高的标准。


If consumers insist on buying only ethical diamonds, traders might be able to push the demand back to their sources.	如果消费者只购买没有道德问题的钻石，那么贸易商就会把这一要求施加到他们的上游供应者身上。


And, if the diamond industry can put itself on an ethical footing, it might send a message to other industries that deal in resources that are effectively being stolen from some of the world’s poorest people.	而倘若连钻石行业都能将自身建立在道德基础之上的话，那其他那些从世界上最贫穷的人民手中窃取资源以牟利的行业也会有走向正途的一天。


The Interest-Rate Enigma	利率迷局


BASEL – Today, the United States government can borrow for ten years at a fixed rate of around 2.5%.	发自巴塞尔——从今往后，美国政府可以以大概2. 5%的利率进行十年期融资。


Adjusted for expected inflation, this translates into a real borrowing cost of under 0.5%.	在计入预期通胀之后，这意味着政府的实际贷款成本还不到0. 5%。


A year ago, real rates were actually negative.	就在一年前，实际利率事实上还是负值。


And, with low interest rates dominating the developed world, many worry that an era of secular stagnation has begun.	而随着低利率开始在发达国家成为主流，许多人担心一个长期萧条时期即将降临。


How problematic low real rates are depends on the reason for their decline.	而低实际汇率带来的问题严重程度则取决于降低汇率的理由。


The prevailing view is that the downward trend largely reflects a fall in equilibrium or “natural” interest rates, driven by changes in saving and investment fundamentals.	目前流行的观点认为下行趋势在很大程度上反映了均衡或者“自然”利率的下跌，而这种下跌的原因来自储蓄和投资基本面的改变。


In other words, a higher propensity to save in emerging economies, together with investors’ growing preference for safe assets, has increased the supply of saving worldwide, even as weak growth prospects and heightened uncertainty in advanced economies have depressed investment demand.	换句话说，即便发达国家的疲软的增长预期以及不断增加的不确定性抑制了投资需求，但新兴市场国家的储蓄偏好，再加上投资者对安全资产的日渐偏爱，导致全球的储蓄供应有所增加。


This perceived decline in “natural” interest rates is viewed as a key obstacle to economic recovery, because it impedes monetary policy’s capacity to provide sufficient stimulus by pushing real rates below the equilibrium level, owing to the zero lower bound on nominal rates.	“自然”利率的下跌被视为经济复苏的一个关键障碍，因为名义利率不能低于0，所以这种下跌抑制了货币政策通过将实际利率压至均衡水平以下来供应足量刺激措施的能力。


How to stem the decline in equilibrium rates has thus become the subject of lively debate.	如何阻止均衡利率的下跌也因此成为了各界争论的要点。


Conspicuously absent from the debate, however, is the role of financial factors in explaining the trend decline in real rates.	然而一直缺席讨论的则是金融因素在解释实际利率趋势性下跌中所扮演的角色。


After all, interest rates are not determined by some invisible natural force; they are set by people.	毕竟利率并不是由某些可见的自然力量所主导的； 而是人来制定的。


Central banks pin down the short end of the yield curve, while financial-market participants price longer-dated yields based on how they expect monetary policy to respond to future inflation and growth, taking into account associated risks.	各国央行固定了收益曲线较短的一段，而金融市场参与者们则基于他们就货币政策将如何对未来通胀或增长作出反应的预期来为更长期的收益定价，并计算相关风险。


Observed real interest rates are measured by deducting expected inflation from these nominal rates.	而观察得来的实际利率则通过从这些名义利率中减去预期通胀来计算。


Thus, at any given point in time, interest rates reflect the interplay between the central bank’s reaction function and private-sector beliefs.	因此，在任何时期，利率都反映各国央行的反应机制和私人部门预期之间的互动。


By identifying the evolution of real interest rates with saving and investment fundamentals, the implicit assumption is that the central bank and financial markets can roughly track the evolution of the equilibrium real rate over time.	通过储蓄和投资基本面来定义实际利率的变化发展，一个明显的推断就是央行和金融市场都可以粗略地摸索到均衡实际利率随时间的变化规律。


But this is by no means straightforward.	但这可不是直接了当的。


For central banks, measuring the equilibrium interest rate – an abstract concept that cannot be observed – is a formidable challenge.	对央行来说，测量均衡利率——一个无法观察的抽象概念——是个极大的挑战。


To steer rates in the right direction, central banks typically rely on estimates of unobserved variables, including the equilibrium real rate itself, potential output, and trend unemployment.	为了将利率向正确的方向调整，央行通常依赖于对那些不可观察变量（包括均衡实际利率自身，潜在产量，以及失业率趋势）的估算。


These estimates are highly uncertain, strongly model-dependent, and subject to large revisions.	这些估算具有高度不确定性，极为依赖模型，而且时常需要大幅修正。


Moreover, central banks’ policy frameworks may be incomplete.	此外，央行的政策框架可能是不完整的。


By focusing largely on short-term inflation and output stabilization, monetary policy may not pay sufficient attention to financial developments.	由于在很大程度上着眼于短期通胀和产量稳定性，货币政策可能无法对金融的发展状况给予足够关注。


Given that the financial cycle is much more drawn out than the business cycle, typical policy horizons may not allow the authorities to account adequately for the impact of their decisions on future economic outcomes.	考虑到金融周期比商业周期更为漫长，典型的政策视野无法让当局恰当地评估自身决策对未来经济状况的影响。


The fact that financial booms and busts can occur amid relatively stable inflation does not help.	就算认识到金融繁荣和爆破都可以在通胀相对稳定时期发生的事实也无济于事。


With financial-market participants as much in the dark as central banks, things can go badly wrong.	由于金融市场参与者也与央行一样两眼一抹黑，情况就可以变得极为糟糕。


And so they have.	而且这种情况确实发生了。


Over the last three decades, several credit-induced boom-bust episodes have caused major, sustained damage to the global economy.	在过去三十年来，数次由信贷推动的繁荣-爆破状况为全球经济带来的重大且持续的破坏。


It is difficult to square this reality with the view that interest rates, which set the price of leverage, have been on an equilibrium path all along.	同时也难以将这一现实与那种认为价格杠杆的利率一直处于均衡状况的观点达成一致。


The focus on fundamental saving and investment determinants of interest rates is entirely logical from the perspective of mainstream macroeconomic models, which assume that money and finance are irrelevant (“neutral”) for the output path in the long run.	在认定货币和金融在长期经济总量发展轨迹上是不相关（“中性”）的主流宏观经济模型看来，对基本储蓄和投资利率决定因素的关注是完全符合逻辑的。


But successive crises have shown that finance can have long-lasting effects.	但一系列的危机都显示金融可以造成长期萦绕不散的影响。


Financial factors, especially leverage, not only can amplify cyclical fluctuations; they can also propel the economy away from a sustainable growth path.	金融因素，尤其是杠杆，不但可以扩大周期性波动； 还能让经济偏离原本的可持续增长轨道。


Indeed, a growing body of evidence shows that output is permanently lower in the wake of a financial crisis.	事实上，不断有证据显示经济产出在一场金融危机爆发过后都会持续低迷。


All of this suggests that the trend decline in real interest rates does not just passively mirror changes in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals.	所有这一切都意味着实际利率的趋势性下跌不仅仅是构成宏观经济基本面的负面微小变化。


On the contrary, it also helps drive them.	相反，它同样也在驱动基本面。


Low interest rates can sow the seeds of financial booms and busts.	低利率可以成为金融繁荣和爆破的诱因。


Policies that do not lean against the booms but ease aggressively and persistently during busts induce a downward bias in interest rates over time, and an upward bias in debt levels.	那些不依赖金融繁荣但在爆破时期长期巨额宽松的政策会随时间催生一个利率下行偏好，同时在债务水平上催生上升偏好。


This creates something akin to a debt trap, in which it is difficult to raise rates without damaging the economy.	这会创造一个类似债务陷阱的东西，导致难以在不损害经济的情况下提高利率。


The accumulation of debt and the distortions in production and investment patterns induced by persistently low interest rates hinder the return of those rates to more normal levels.	由持续低利率导致的债务积累和生产投资模式扭曲遏制了这些利率向更正常水平的回归。


Low rates thus become self-reinforcing.	低利率因此成为了一种不断自我强化的事件。


This alternative perspective highlights the trade-off inherent in ultra-accommodative monetary policy.	而另一种观点则点出了超适应性货币政策内在的取舍。


Monetary policy cannot overcome structural impediments to growth.	货币政策是无法压倒增长的结构性阻力。


But the actions that central banks take today can affect real macroeconomic developments in the long term, primarily through their impact on the financial cycle.	但央行当今所采取的行动可以在很大程度上通过影响金融周期来左右长期的实际宏观经济发展。


These medium- to long-term side effects need to be weighed carefully against the benefits of short-term stimulus.	同时也必须仔细权衡这些中-长期副作用与短期刺激政策的利弊。


While low interest rates may be a natural response to perceptions of a chronic demand shortfall, such perceptions are not always correct – and can be very costly over time.	虽然低利率可能是一个对长期需求下跌预期的自然反应，但这些预期也不总是对的——还可能随时间推移造成极大破坏。


Laying the foundations of a sustained recovery requires measures to strengthen public- and private-sector balance sheets, together with structural reforms aimed at raising productivity and improving growth potential.	为一场持续复苏构筑基础需要一些能巩固公共和私人部门资产负债表的措施，再结合旨在提高生产力并增加增长潜力的结构性改革。


More stimulus may boost output in the short run, but it can also exacerbate the problem, thus compelling even larger dosages over time.	更多的刺激手段可能会在短期内提高经济表现，但也会令现存的问题进一步恶化，导致下次只能用更强刺激手段才能见效。


An unhealthy dependence on painkillers can be avoided, but only if we recognize the risk in time.	这种对止痛药的病态依赖是可以避免的，但问题是我们必须及时意识到这一点。


Toward a Green New Deal	通向绿色新政


LONDON – The global agreement reached in Paris last week is actually the third climate agreement reached in the past month.	伦敦—上周在巴黎达成的全球协定其实是上个月所达成的第三项气候协定。


The first happened at the end of November, when a group of billionaires led by Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos announced the creation of a $20 billion fund to back clean-energy research.	第一项协定是11月底以比尔·盖茨、马克·扎克伯格和杰夫·贝佐斯为首的一群亿万富翁宣布成立一个200亿美元的基金支持清洁能源研究。


On the same day, a group of 20 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, India, China, and Brazil, agreed to double their investment in green energy, to a total of $20 billion a year.	同一天，包括美国、英国、德国、印度、中国和巴西在内的二十国同意将绿色能源投资扩大一倍，总额达到每年200亿美元。


Of the two pre-Paris announcements, it was that of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition (BEC) – Gates and his fellow entrepreneurs – that grabbed most of the headlines.	在巴黎之前所宣布的两项协定中，盖茨及其企业家同侪所成立的突破能源联盟（Breakthrough Energy Coalition，BEC）更加引人注目。


This is not surprising, given the strong association in the popular imagination between innovation and the private sector.	这并不奇怪，因为在流行的想象中，创新和私人部门关系紧密。


If a technological breakthrough is needed in the fight against climate change, whom should we expect to provide it, if not the wizards of Silicon Valley and other hubs of free-market innovation?	如果需要一项科技突破来遏制气候变化，除了硅谷和其他自由市场创新枢纽中的天才，还有谁能够实现它呢？


Gates himself is the first to acknowledge that the public perception is far from accurate.	盖茨本人是第一个承认公众感觉与真相相去甚远的人。


“The private sector knows how to build companies, evaluate the potential for success, and take the risks that lead to taking innovative ideas and bringing them to the world,” reads his coalition’s manifesto. “But in the current business environment, the risk-reward balance for early-stage investing in potentially transformative energy systems is unlikely to meet the market tests of traditional angel or VC investors.”	“私人部门知道怎么开公司，怎么评估成功的可能，怎么承担引领创新概念并把它们带给全世界的风险，”他在联盟宣言中如是说，“但在当前的商业环境中，具有潜在变革能力的能源系统的早期阶段投资的风险-报酬平衡不可能通过传统天使投资人或风险资本的市场测试。


On its own, the free market will not develop new sources of energy fast enough.	自由市场本身无法以足够快的速度开发新的能源资源。


The payoff is still too uncertain.	报酬仍然过于不确定。


Just as in previous technological revolutions, rapid advances in clean energy will require the intervention of a courageous, entrepreneurial state, providing patient, long-term finance that shifts the private sector’s incentives.	一如前几次科技革命，清洁能源的快速进步需要勇气十足的企业家国家（entrepreneurial state）的干预，提供有耐心的长期融资改变私人部门的激励。


Governments must make bold policy choices that not only level the playing field, but also tilt it toward environmental sustainability.	政府必须做出重大政策选择，不但要实现平等竞争，更要使其向环境可持续性倾斜。


Then – and only then – will private financing follow.	然后——惟其如此——私人融资才会跟进。


So far, however, austerity has prevented sufficient public financing.	但是，到目前为止，紧缩阻碍了足够的公共融资。


One hopes that the Paris agreement changes that.	我们希望巴黎协定能改变这一点。


As with the information technology revolution, advances in clean energy will require the involvement of both the public and the private sector.	和信息技术革命一样，清洁能源的进步需要公共和私人部门的参与。


Because we do not yet know which innovations will be the most important in decarbonizing the economy, investment must be allocated to a wide array of choices.	我们尚不清楚那些创新对于经济去碳化最为重要，因此必须在相当广泛的一系列选择之间配置投资。


Long-term, patient finance must also be available to help companies minimize uncertainty and bridge the so-called “Valley of Death” between basic research and commercialization.	长期耐心融资对于帮助公司实现不确定性最小化、弥合基础研究和商业化之间的所谓“死亡谷”也是必不可少的。


The BEC’s argument – that the “new model will be a public-private partnership between governments, research institutions, and investors” – shines a welcome spotlight on the relationship.	BEC的观点——“新模式将是政府、研究机构和投资者之间的公私合作”——为这一关系带来了希望的曙光。


Unfortunately, however, aside from Gates and his colleagues, there are few signs that the private sector can be counted on to lead the way.	但是，不幸的是，除了盖茨及其同道，我们几乎看不到可以指望私人部门引领潮流的信号。


The energy sector has become over-financialized; it is spending more on share buybacks than on research and development in low-carbon innovation.	能源部门已经过度金融化； 该部门花在股票回购上的钱比低碳创新研发更多。


The energy giants ExxonMobil and General Electric are the first and tenth largest corporate buyers of their own shares.	埃克森美孚和通用电气等能源巨头是回购股票的第一大和第十大公司。


Meanwhile, according to the International Energy Agency, just 16% of investment in the US energy sector was spent on renewable or nuclear energy.	与此同时，据国际能源署的数据，��国能源部门投资中只有16%被花在了可再生或核能源上。


Left to their own devices, oil companies seem to prefer extracting hydrocarbons from the deepest confines of the earth to channeling their profits into clean-energy alternatives.	放任自流的话，石油公司似乎更偏好于从地球最深处提炼碳氢化合物，而不是将利润用于清洁能源替代方案上。


Meanwhile, government R&D budgets have been declining in recent years – a trend driven partly by under-appreciation of the state’s role in fostering innovation and growth, and more recently by austerity in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.	与此同时，政府研发预算在近几年中一直在下降——部分是因为对国家在促进创新和增长中的角色认识不足，最近则是拜2008年金融危机以来的紧缩所赐。


Tight budgets are straining the agencies that could be driving path-breaking innovation.	吃紧的预算制约着可能推动突破性创新的机构。


The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) was a catalyst for the IT revolution.	美国国防先进研究计划局（DARPA）是IT革命的催化剂之一。


By contrast, the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) has a 2015 budget of $280 million – barely a tenth of DARPA’s.	相反，能源先进研究计划局（ARPA-E）的2015年预算仅为2. 8亿美元——大概只有DARPA的十分之一。


In 1981, energy accounted for 11% of the total US public R&D budget.	1981年，能源占美国公共研发预算总量的11%。


Today, it accounts for just 4%.	如今，这一比例只有4%。


Meanwhile, problematic demand-side policies are also in crisis, impeding the deployment of existing renewable-energy technologies.	与此同时，大有问题的需求端政策也出现了危机，阻碍着已有可再生能源技术的部署。


The main public-sector bodies playing a leading role in promoting the diffusion of green-energy technologies are state development banks.	在促进清洁能源科技扩散方面起着领导作用的主要公共部门机构是国家开发银行。


Indeed, Germany’s KfW, the China Development Bank, the European Investment Bank, and Brazil’s BNDES are four of the top ten investors in renewable energy, amounting to 15% of total asset finance.	事实上，德国的KfW、中国国家开发银行、欧洲投资银行和巴西的BNDES都名列可再生能源十大投资者行列，贡献了总资产融资的15%。


The public sector can – and should – do much more.	公共部门可以——也应该——做得更多。


For example, subsidies received by energy corporations could be made conditional on a greater percentage of profits being invested in low-carbon innovations.	比如，能源公司所获得的补贴应该以加大投资于低碳创新的利润比例为条件。


After all, it was this kind of condition – imposed on the US telephone company AT&T in the early twentieth century, in exchange for being allowed to retain its monopoly – that led to the creation of Bell Labs, a crucial incubator of innovation.	毕竟，这类条件——20世纪初曾经对美国电话电报公司实行过，以此换取保持其垄断地位的权利——曾经催生了贝尔实验室，成为创新的关键孵化器。


Similarly, while charitable donations by billionaires certainly should be welcomed, companies should also be made to pay a reasonable amount of taxes.	类似地，尽管亿万富翁的慈善捐赠当然应该受到欢迎，但公司也应该支付合理数量的税收。


After all, as the BEC’s manifesto points out, “current governmental funding levels for clean energy are simply insufficient to meet the challenges before us.”	毕竟，如BEC宣言所指出的，“当前政府对清洁能源的拨款水平根本不足以面对我们所面临的挑战。


And yet, in the UK, for example, Facebook paid just £4,327 in tax in 2014, far less than many individual taxpayers.	”而在（比如）英国，2014年Facebook纳税额仅为4,327英镑，远远低于许多个人纳税者。


The willingness of Gates and other business leaders to commit themselves and their money to the promotion of clean energy is admirable.	盖茨和其他商业领袖愿意投身和投钱于清洁能源的推广，这值得我们敬仰。


The Paris deal is also good news.	巴黎协议也是一个好消息。


But they are not enough.	但这还不够。


If the low-carbon revolution is to be achieved, we will need both the public and private sectors to commit more fully to green innovation, from both the supply and demand sides.	想要实现低碳革命，我们需要公共和私人部门更加充分地从供给和需求两端致力于绿色创新。


New Politics for Clean Energy	清洁能源新政治


NEW YORK – The diplomats have done their job, concluding the Paris climate agreement in December.	纽约——外交官们去年12月签署巴黎气候协议已经完成了任务。


And political leaders gathered last week at the United Nations to sign the new accord.	而政治领袖上周齐聚联合国签署了这项新协议。


But implementation is surely the tough part.	但实施肯定是一项艰巨的任务。


Governments need a new approach to an issue that is highly complex, long term, and global in scale.	因为这个问题高度复杂、长期而全球化，政府在处置时需要拿出新的态度。


At its core, the climate challenge is an energy challenge.	气候挑战的核心是能源问题。


About 80% of the world’s primary energy comes from carbon-based sources: coal, oil, and gas.	世界主要能源约80%均来自碳基能源：包括煤、石油和天然气。


When burned, they emit the carbon dioxide that causes global warming.	它们在燃烧时所释放的二氧化碳导致全球变暖。


By 2070, we need a world economy that is nearly 100% carbon-free to prevent global warming from running dangerously out of control.	到2070年，我们需要世界经济几乎百分之百无碳，才能避免全球变暖陷入危险的失控境地。


The Paris agreement recognizes these basic facts.	巴黎协议承认这些基本事实。


It calls on the world to cut greenhouse-gas emissions (especially CO2) to net-zero levels in the second half of the century.	它呼吁世界各国在本世纪下半叶实现温室气体（特别是二氧化碳）净排放为零。


To this end, governments are to prepare plans not only to the year 2030 (the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), but also to mid-century (the so-called Low-Emission Development Strategies, or LEDS).	为了达到这一目标，政府不仅要制定截至2030年的NDC计划（也就是所谓的国家确定贡献计划），还要制定截止本世纪中叶的减排计划（也就是所谓的低排放发展战略LEDS）。


The world’s governments have never before attempted to remake a core sector of the world economy on a global scale with such an aggressive timeline.	世界各国政府之前都从未有过在如此紧迫的时间内改造世界经济核心部门的经历。


The fossil-fuel energy system was created step by step over two centuries.	化石燃料能源系统花了两个多世纪的时间才逐步建立。


Now it must be comprehensively overhauled in just 50 years, and not in a few countries, but everywhere.	而现在却要在50年的时间内对其完成全面改造，而且涉及的不是少数几个国家，而是整个世界。


Governments will need new approaches to develop and implement their LEDS.	政府需要新方法来制定和实行其低排放发展战略。


There are four reasons why politics as usual will not be sufficient.	有四大原因导致常规政治无法解决问题。


First, the energy system is just that: a system of many interconnected parts and technologies.	首先，能源系统就是这样：一个联通多部分和技术的体系。


Power plants, pipelines, ocean transport, transmission lines, dams, land use, rail, highways, buildings, vehicles, appliances, and much more must all fit together into a working whole.	发电厂、管道、远洋运输、输电线路、水坝、土地利用、铁路、公路、建筑、汽车、电器等等均须作为一个整体发挥作用。


Such a system cannot be overhauled through small incremental steps.	对这样的系统进行改造不能通过小规模的渐进步骤。


A deep overhaul requires system-wide re-engineering to ensure that all parts continue to work effectively together.	深层次的改造需要重新设计整个系统，以确保所有部分能够持续有效运作。


Second, there are still many large technological uncertainties in moving to a low-carbon energy system.	其次，向低碳能源体系转型仍然在技术方面存在许多重大的不确定性。


Should vehicles be decarbonized through battery-electric power, hydrogen fuel cells, or advanced biofuels?	汽车去碳化应通过供电电池、氢燃料电池还是先进生物燃料进行？


Can coal-fired power plants be made safe through carbon capture and storage (CCS)?	能否通过碳采集及储存（CCS）技术提升燃煤电厂的安全性？


Will nuclear energy be politically acceptable, safe, and low cost?	核能在政治领域能否被接受，是否安全、成本低？


We must plan investments in research and development to resolve these uncertainties and improve our technological options.	我们必须为研发投资制定计划，解决上述不确定性并改善我们可以选择的技术方案。


Third, sensible solutions require international energy cooperation.	第三，合理的解决方案���要开展国际能源合作。


One key fact about low-carbon energy (just like fossil fuels) is that it is not generally located where it will ultimately be used.	（像化石燃料一样），一个关于低碳能源的关键事实是其生产和使用往往不在一地。


Just as coal, oil, and gas must be transported long distances, so wind, solar, geothermal, and hydropower must be moved long distances through transmission lines and through synthetic liquid fuels made with wind and solar power.	就像煤、石油和天然气必须经过长途运输一样，风能、太阳能、地热和水电也必须经过输电线路的长途运输或者转化为风能及太阳能制成的合成液体。


Fourth, there are of course powerful vested interests in the fossil-fuel industry that are resisting change.	第四，抵制变革的强大既得利益集团无疑存在于化石燃料行业。


This is abundantly clear in the US, for example, where the Republican Party denies climate change for the sole reason that it is heavily funded by the US oil industry.	比方说，这在美国非常明显，共和党否定气候变化的唯一理由是该党大量接受美国石油行业的出资。