Absent these conditions, the US is ultimately powerless.	缺少这些条件，美国就完全无能为力。


The first scenario is when a real war threatens to spill over into a wider conflict, destabilizing the region and Great Power relations.	第一个背景条件是当一场真正的战争有扩大成为更大范围的冲突的威胁，从而使地区和强国关系不稳定的时候。


At such times, resolute American steps can stop the fighting and impose a cease-fire, if not peace.	在这个时候，美国采取坚决的措施可以停止战争，并且即使如果不能缔造和平，也可以迫使双方停火，。


In 1973, at the end of the Yom Kippur War, Israel was poised to encircle the entire Egyptian Third Army in Sinai.	1973年，在赎罪日战争末期，以色列准备好在西奈包围全部埃及第三军。


Its troops were on the road to Cairo, threatening to inflict a major defeat on Egypt.	它的军队在路上向开罗进发，威胁要给埃及造成重大的打击。


Soviet intervention became a real threat.	苏联的干涉成为一个真正的威胁。


A few tough messages from President Richard Nixon stopped the Israelis in their tracks and enabled the Americans to start a lengthy process of de-escalation that led to a number of interim agreements.	查理·尼克松总统发出的一些强硬信息阻止了以色列军队前进的脚步，使美国能够开始一个冗长的降低战争程度的过程，并达成了一些临时协议。


Likewise, in 1982, during the invasion of Lebanon, Israeli troops were about to enter Muslim West Beirut after Syrian agents assassinated the pro-Israeli Lebanese President-elect Bashir Gemayel.	同样，在1982年，在入侵黎巴嫩的过程中，在叙利亚特工暗杀了亲以色列的黎巴嫩总统当选者贝希尔·杰马耶勒之后，以色列军队打算进入穆斯林西贝鲁特。


This would probably have brought Syria into the war.	这可能使叙利亚卷入战争。


A few tough calls from President Ronald Reagan to Prime Minister Menachem Begin prevented this.	罗纳德·里根总统和梅纳赫姆·贝京总理的几次强硬的通话阻止了这一行动。


During the first Gulf War in 1991, when Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles at Israeli civilian targets and US forces failed to stop the Iraqi attacks, Israel was set to strike Iraqi targets, which would have split the US-Arab anti-Iraq coalition.	在1991年的第一次海湾战争期间，当伊拉克向以色列的平民目标发射了39枚飞毛腿导弹并且美国军队没能停止伊拉克的攻击时，以色列准备打击伊拉克目标，这可能导致美国－阿拉伯反对伊拉克同盟的分裂。


The US warned Israel not to get involved, and Israel was forced to comply.	美国警告以色列不要卷入，以色列被迫遵守。


In all these cases, American involvement was swift and focused on a clear aim, and compliance was verifiable within days, if not hours.	在所有这些情形中，美国的介入迅速并且集中于一个明确的目标，以色列的顺从即使不能在几个小时内证实，也可以在几天内证实。


In such dramatic situations, US power is at its greatest.	在这些戏剧性的情形中，美国的力量是最有效的。


The other scenario is when the two sides have already engaged in bilateral peace talks, paid the domestic political price, and reached agreement on most issues, though some matters remain unresolved and threaten to derail the process.	另一个背景条件是当双方已经参加双边和平会谈，付出了国内政治代价，并且虽然有些问题仍然没有得到解决而且有使进程偏离轨道的威胁，但是在绝大多数问题上取得了共识的时候。


In such cases, America can step in and, by using both carrot and stick, make both sides go the extra mile.	在这样的情形中，美国可以介入，而且可以通过使用胡萝卜和棒子的方法，使双方更近一步。


After Anwar Sadat’s visit to Jerusalem in 1977, Israel and Egypt negotiated for a year and reached agreement on most issues: peace, diplomatic relations, and full Israeli withdrawal from all occupied Egyptian territory in Sinai.	在安瓦尔·萨达特于1977访问耶路撒冷后，以色列和埃及进行了一年的谈判并且在绝大多数问题上取得的共识：和平，外交关系以及以色列从埃及西奈所有被占领土上全面撤军。


At this point, President Jimmy Carter – who initially opposed the process – invited both sides to Camp David to hammer out a peace treaty.	在这个时候，吉米·卡特总统－他开始是反对这个进程－邀请双方到戴维营制定出了一个和平条约。


In 1993, in secret bilateral negotiations in Norway (unknown to the Americans), Israel and the PLO reached an agreement about mutual recognition and the creation of a provisional Palestinian Autonomous Authority.	在1993年，在挪威的秘密双边谈判中（美国不知情），以色列和巴勒斯坦解放组织就相互承认和建立临时巴勒斯坦自治政府达成协议。


Yet some issues remained unresolved.	然而有一些问题仍然没有得到解决。


President Bill Clinton stepped in, and prevailed upon the two sides to work out their remaining disagreements.	比尔·克林顿总统介入并劝说双方解决他们仍然存在的争议。


When either of these two scenarios is lacking, American initiatives are stillborn.	当这两个背景条件中的任何一个缺乏时，美国的倡议就会胎死腹中。


This happened to Clinton at Camp David in 2000, when he failed to bring Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat to an agreement, and to Bush’s Road Map in 2003, when both sides agreed in principle to its general guidelines, but did little to implement them.	在2000年，当克林顿在戴维营没能使以色列总理埃胡德·巴拉克和巴勒斯坦解放组织主席亚瑟·阿拉法特达成协议时，就发生了这样的情况； 同样，在2003年，在布什的路线图计划中，当双方原则上同意它的总体指导方针，但���少执行它们的时候，也发生了同样的情况。


Absent local political will, and when confronted with a peace-making project that may take years to complete, the US is virtually powerless.	缺乏当地政治意愿，并且面对可能需要几年才能完成的调解计划，美国事实上无能为力。


It is extremely successful as a fire brigade or as a midwife , but not as an initiator .	它在作为一个消防员或者接生员的角色的时候非常成功，但是在作为一个倡议者的时候并非如此。


What applies to the US is even truer for the European Union, whose “soft power” is no match for its lack of local credibility.	对美国适用的情况对欧盟更是如此，由于它在当地缺乏人们对它的信任，它的“软力量”远远弥补不了这一点。


The same dynamic can be seen elsewhere: for all its power, the US has failed to resolve the conflicts in Cyprus, Bosnia, or Kosovo.	同样的道理也可以在其他地方看到：尽管有实力，美国依然没能解决位于塞浦路斯，波斯尼亚或者是科索沃的冲突。


The Annan Plan failed in Cyprus because of one party’s opposition; progress now (the minor but symbolically important opening of the Ledra Street crossing in downtown Nicosia) reflects internal political changes on the Greek Cypriot side.	安南计划因为有一个政党的反对而在塞浦路斯失败。 现在的进展（虽然很小但是象征意义重大的穿越尼科西亚繁华区域的莱德拉街的开放）反映了希腊塞浦路斯人内部的政治变化。


Similarly, if Belgrade will change its obstreperous position on Kosovo, this will be due not to US or EU pressure, but to internal political changes in Serbia.	同样的，如果贝尔格莱德愿意改变它对科索沃的嚣张的态度，这也不是因为美国或者欧盟的压力，而是因为塞尔维亚内部的政治变化。


Recognizing the limits of US power doesn’t mean that America is irrelevant: it can stabilize a conflict, help bring about confidence-building measures, and negotiate interim agreements.	认识到美国力量的局限性不意味着美国与问题毫不相干：它可以稳定冲突，帮助实现建立信心的措施以及就临时协议进行谈判。


But at the end of the day, in the case of Israel-Palestine, as in any conflict between two national movements, the key is in the hands of the local players.	但是最后，在以色列－巴勒斯坦问题中，就像在任何两个国家运动中的冲突一样，钥匙掌握在当地势力的手中。


No national conflict has ever been solved by outside powers, however well intentioned they may be.	从来没有国家冲突是靠外部势力解决的，不管他们的愿望是多么良好。


Making Water Conservation Pay	让水土保持产生经济效益


NEW YORK – Call it a sign of the times.	纽约——或许这是我们时代的标志。


Rarely a month passes in which a water crisis does not make headlines somewhere in the world.	极少有哪个月水资源危机没有登上哪个国家的头版。


In early August, an algal bloom in Lake Erie, the result of agricultural runoff, contaminated drinking water in Toledo, Ohio.	8月初，农田排水导致伊利湖赤潮爆发，污染了俄亥俄州托莱多的饮用水。


In September, the reservoirs in China’s Henan province dried up, leaving crops to shrivel and forcing some residents to drink from puddles on the ground.	9月，中国河南省水库干涸，导致庄稼枯萎并迫使部分居民从水坑里取水。


In late October, the city of Hyderabad, India, discovered that its water supply might be diverted next year for agricultural uses upstream, leaving some eight million people to wonder where they will find the 190 million gallons of water they need every day.	10月下旬，印度海德拉巴市发现该市供水水源可能在明年被转为上游农业用途，致使该市的八百万居民不知道要从哪里去找每天所需的1亿9千万加仑用水。


City officials usually respond to such supply crises by upgrading their water infrastructure, namely, drilling, damming, and laying pipes.	市政官员往往通过升级水利基础设施（也就是钻井、筑坝和铺设管道）来应对上述供水危机。


Every day, the world’s largest 100 cities move 3.2 million cubic meters of water more than 5,700 kilometers to address local water shortages or problems with pollution.	每天，全球最大的100座城市都要将320万立方米水移动5,700多公里，以解决当地的水资源短缺和污染问题。


But this is an expensive solution, one that only the wealthiest cities can afford.	但这种方法代价昂贵，只有最有钱的城市才用得起。


It also puts city managers at odds with environmentalists, who campaign for restrictions on development to ease pressure on forests and watersheds.	这种方法还挑起城市管理者和环保主义者之间的矛盾，后者要求限制兴修水利，以缓解对森林和流域造成的压力。


Fortunately, it is not the only option.	幸运的是，这种方法并非唯一。


Nature, it turns out, can play an important – and so far largely untapped – role in water delivery and treatment.	事实证明，大自然可以在水资源运输及治理方面发挥重要作用，而这种作用现在基本没有发挥。


Protecting water at its source can be cheaper and more efficient than treating it after it has already been polluted.	从源头保护水资源比污染后治理更加经济有效。


In a new report, my colleagues at The Nature Conservancy, the C40 Climate Leadership Group, and the International Water Association show that investing in forest protection, reforestation, stream bank restoration, improved agricultural practices, and forest-fire management can reduce the amount of pollutants flowing into supplies of drinking water.	我在大自然保护协会、C40气候变化领导小组和国际水协的同事在新发布的报告中证明投资于森林保护、植树造林、改变农业传统和森林防火管理等领域可以减少污染物流入饮用水。


The report, “The Urban Water Blueprint,” analyzes the state of water supplies in 534 cities and 2,000 watersheds to provide a comprehensive overview of the potential natural solutions that can be integrated with traditional infrastructure.	这份名为“城市供水蓝图”的报告分析了534座城市及2，000个流域的供水状况，全面总结了能与传统基础设施相结合的潜在的自然解决方案。


The results are compelling.	分析得出的结果令人信服。


Water quality for more than 700 million people could be significantly improved by adopting conservation practices in watersheds.	在流域内采取保护措施可以显著提升7亿人的用水质量。


And at least one in four cities examined would find such interventions financially viable, based solely on savings from avoided water-treatment costs.	而且依据省下的水处理成本计算，将有四分之一的城市发现上述措施在经济上完全可行。


In some places, such measures have already been introduced.	某些地方已经出台了上述举措。


Farmers near Beijing, for example, have been paid to convert croplands from rice to corn.	比方说北京附近的农民已经得到补偿，让他们从水稻改种玉米。


Rice paddies need to be constantly flooded, and, because they are often located on steep slopes, this leads to significant runoff of fertilizers and sediment.	稻田需要不断进行漫灌，而且因为多数座落在陡峭的山坡上，将会导致化肥和土壤显著流失。


Shifting to corn not only reduces water consumption; it also cuts the amount of pollution that reaches city residents downstream.	改种玉米不仅能降低水资源消耗； 还能减轻下游城市居民所受的污染。


The program costs about $1,330 per hectare of farmland to implement, but produces $2,020 per hectare of benefits.	该项目的执行成本约合每公顷1，330美元，却能产生每公顷2，020美元的经济效益。


In Brazil, a water-conservation fund is working to restore the Cantareira watershed, the source of 50% of Sao Paulo’s water.	在巴西，一家节水基金正努力恢复为圣保罗提供50%水源的康达雷拉流域。


The area has lost 70% of its original forest cover, and sediment from eroding hillsides has clogged the city’s reservoir, jeopardizing the water supply of Brazil’s largest city.	该地区森林覆盖率已经下降70%，而且山体侵蚀带来的沉积物已经堵塞了城市水库，从而对巴西最大城市的供水安全构成威胁。


Under the new program, farmers and ranchers are paid $120 per hectare to reforest or terrace their fields.	按照新计划，农牧民每公顷能拿到120美元，用于植被恢复和梯田改造工作。


So far, about 3,500 hectares have been planted with trees or put under improved soil-management practices.	到目前为止，已经有3，500公顷土地种植了树木，或者实行了经过改良的土壤管理措施。


Reforesting another 14,200 hectares could cut the concentration of sediment in the watershed by half.	另外造林14，200公顷可以减少流域内半数的泥沙沉积。


The savings produced by these programs should be viewed in the context of the $90 billion per year that cities spend to build treatment plants, pipes, and other components of water infrastructure.	应当以城市兴建污水处理厂、铺设管道及其他供水设施的年投资额900亿美元为背景来看待项目带来的节约。


The authors of “The Urban Water Blueprint” have calculated that more than $18 billion could be productively directed toward conservation activities, saving cities money and creating a new market comparable in size to the market for the water sector’s existing technologies.	《城市供水蓝图》的编写者计算出超过180亿美元的投资可以在保证效益的前提下转投到水资源保护领域，在节约城市成本的同时创造出与水务部门现有技术市场相当的全新市场规模。


But if these solutions are to be adopted at the necessary scale, environmentalists and city officials alike will have to expand the scope of their traditional activities.	但要想以必要的规模落实这些举措，环保主义者和市政官员都必须拓展传统的活动范围。


Environmentalists will have to embrace the idea that conservation does not only mean protecting pristine landscapes.	环保主义者必须接受水资源保护不等于维持原始状态。


It also sometimes requires the improvement of lands under production.	有时还需要对受保护的土地进行改良。


Indeed, these are the areas where some of the most cost-effective solutions are to be found.	事实上，这才是最具成本效益的领域。


Water quality would be improved for more than 600 million people if the farms and ranches operating within their watersheds limited runoff and restored stream banks.	如果在流域内进行耕作的农牧民在限制水土流失的同时修复河岸，就能够改善6亿多人的用水水质。


City officials, meanwhile, need to think beyond their municipalities’ boundaries.	此外，市政官员必须超越城市的界限来考虑问题。


The 100 largest cities occupy much less than 1% of the planet’s land, but the watersheds on which they depend account for a full 12%.	100座最大城市只占地球面积的不到1%，而它们赖以生存的流域面积却占整整12%。


Because many cities share water resources, cross-jurisdictional financing mechanisms and a shared sense of commitment will be needed in order to protect and restore natural sources of clean water.	很多城市共用水资源，因此必须建立跨辖区融资机制和共同的目标意识才能保护和恢复洁净的天然水源。


These partnerships will require the cooperation of a broad variety of interest groups, all of which will have to be persuaded to support efforts to improve the water supply.	建立上述合作关系需要众多利益集团通力合作，我们必须说服他们对改善供水资源予以支持。


Farmers and ranchers should be at the top of the engagement list.	合作清单上排名最靠前的应当是农牧民。


Land use and water security are firmly linked.	土地使用和水资源安全之间的联系异常紧密。


By embracing both natural and traditional water infrastructure, cities will not only secure their future water supply; they will also reshape our planet’s landscape for the better.	通过建设自然和传统的水利设施，城市不仅能够确保未来的水资源供应； 还能够重塑地球的美好未来。


Health Care’s New Frontier	医疗卫生的“新疆”


BEIJING – Developing countries face a seemingly insurmountable hurdle in providing health care to their rapidly growing – or, in some cases, rapidly aging – populations, especially as health systems become increasingly over-burdened and infections and other diseases spread.	北京—发展中国家在向快速增长（或者在一些国家，向快速衰老）的人口提供卫生服务方面似乎面临着不可逾越的障碍，特别是随着卫生体系变得日渐不堪重负、传染病和其他疾病日渐猖獗的情况下。


Because access to medicine in these regions is a multifaceted challenge, it is best tackled by several parties.	由于在这些地区推广医药是多方面的挑战，因此最好由多方共同努力完成。


Lasting, collaborative relationships among pharmaceutical companies, governments, nonprofit organizations, and community leaders are needed to help disadvantaged populations overcome their health-care challenges.	制药公司、政府、非营利组织和社区领袖之间持久的合作关系是帮助弱势群众克服健康挑战之所必须。


Together, these parties should take a binary approach, addressing both “hardware” factors (which remain constant, such as physical distance to treatment centers and elongated supply chains) and “software” factors (the intangibles that vary greatly in each region, such as the role of family and cultural beliefs).	这些方面应该齐心协力双管齐下，同时解决“硬件”因素（这些因素是固定的，比如到治疗中心的物理距离和延长的供应链）和“软件”因素（因地区不同而大相径庭的无形因素，比如家庭和文化信仰的作用）。


These principles are especially true in places like China’s rural Xinjiang province, where life expectancy is stunted at 67 years (compared to 73.5 for China as a whole), and lack of access to health care undermines well-being.	这些原则在中国农业省份新疆等地区特别突出，新疆人的预期寿命只有67岁（全中国水平是73. 5岁），缺医少药抑制了新疆人的福利。


Xinjiang covers nearly 650,000 square miles (1.7 million square kilometers), but it is home to only 21 million people, many of whom are members of nomadic tribes.	新疆面积近65万平方英里，但只有2100万人口，其中许多人过着游牧生活。


From an economic standpoint, Xinjiang’s resilience is crucial to China’s economic growth strategy – it is seen as the country’s gateway to the west.	从经济角度讲，新疆的活力是中国经济增长战略的关键——它被视为中国的西大门。


But the reality is that maintaining the livelihood and well-being of this area’s population and those in other rural parts of China is a serious challenge.	但现实是，维持新疆人民和中国其他农村地区人民的生活水平和福利是一项艰巨的挑战。


Throughout rural China, the spread of infectious diseases – particularly hepatitis B, which affects millions – reflects a lack of hygiene education.	纵观中国农村，传染病的传播——特别是乙肝，影响人数高达数百万——显示卫生教育任重道远。


The health ministry cited a 9.5% increase in deaths caused by infectious diseases from 2011 to 2012.	卫生部的数据表明，2011—2012年传染病致死人数增加了9. 5%。


Moreover, there is a serious shortage of health-care workers – just 1.3 per 1,000 rural inhabitants in China.	此外，中国医务人员严重短缺，每农村地区每1000居民只有1. 3名医务人员为其服务。


Free medicines are only part of the solution.	免费药品只是解决方案的一部分。


We need to go beyond donations and reduced-pricing schemes to build sustainable health-care systems with strong distribution channels and education programs for the public and for health-care workers.	我们需要超越捐赠和降价机制，建立拥有强大分配渠道和面向大众和医务人员的教育计划的可持续的卫生体系。


Without these components, the model collapses.	没有这些，整个模式就会崩溃。


Through public-private partnerships, we can leverage unique strengths and be better equipped to expand access to health care.	通过公私合作，我们可以利用独特优势、更好地扩大医疗卫生服务面。


This can create a symbiotic relationship, offering benefits to government, business, and the local community.	这能够造成一种共生关系，让政府、企业和地方社区都获得好处。


For example, Novartis’s Jiankang Kuaiche (“Health Express”) program in Xinjiang is a partnership between Novartis and the local government that aims to expand access to medicine, build capacity, and educate the public.	比如，诺华制药的新疆自治区“健康快车”便是由诺华公司和当地政府合作的旨在扩大药品覆盖面、建立医护能力、以及教育公众的项目。


Health Express achieves this by training local physicians in prevention and treatment of infectious diseases and educating primary and middle-school students on health and hygiene via a traveling caravan that moves from school to school.	健康快车通过培训当地传染病防治医生以及为中小学生提供健康和卫生教育（通过流动教室逐校施教）达��这一目标。


During a recent trip to Xinjiang, I met several physicians from rural hospitals who had received training through Health Express.	在最近的新疆之旅中，我会见了不少来自农村医院的医生，他们都获得了健康快车的培训。


They told me that in the past, hepatitis patients had to travel for hours to be diagnosed and treated at a city hospital, while many others who were unable to make the journey suffered without treatment.	他们告诉我，在过去，肝炎病人需要跋涉数小时才能到达城市医院获得诊断和治疗，许多无力前往城市的患者只能放弃治疗饱受病痛折磨。


Now, with physicians trained in infectious diseases, hepatitis treatment is possible in rural areas of Xinjiang, and patient outcomes have improved significantly.	如今，有了经过传染病培训的医生，肝炎治疗可以在新疆农村地区实施，患者疗效显著改善。


I also met with school children at Urumqi Dengcaogou Boarding School, which is situated in a rural area outside of the provincial capital.	我还会见了位于新疆自治区首府乌鲁木齐城外农村地区的灯草沟学校的一些在校学生。


The students were proud to be able to bring their new health-care knowledge back to their families.	这些学生对于可以将学到的新卫生知识带给家里人感到十分自豪。


They told me how they had told their parents to quit smoking after learning about the consequences of the habit on health.	他们告诉我，在学习了吸烟对于健康的后果后，他们纷纷回家要求父母亲戒烟。


These children join more than 500,000 others in Xinjiang who have participated in the educational component of Health Express.	这些孩子与其他50多万名新疆孩子一起参与了健康快车的教育计划。


By targeting schools as hubs for health-care education and shaping students into health ambassadors for their families and friends, we can reach an even greater number of people in Xinjiang’s nomadic communities.	我们把学校作为卫生教育的中转站，让学生担任他们家庭和朋友的健康大使，从而得以将卫生知识传播给更多的新疆游牧社区居民。


Xinjiang means “new frontier,” and right now, we are at the edge of a new frontier in delivering sustainable health-care solutions to communities where limited resources and infrastructure constrain access to health care.	新疆的意思是“新边界”，而如今，我们在新边界的最深处向有限的资源和基础设施不足制约着居民获得医疗卫生服务的社区传播可持续卫生方案。


These multidimensional, scalable interventions help to bridge the gaps in developing regions.	这些多管齐下、便于传播的干预措施有助于填补发展中地区的空白。


But neither corporations nor governments can do it alone.	但不管是公司还是政府，都不可能独立完成这一成就。


They need to work together to achieve the best possible outcome.	它们需要齐心协力才能实现最好的可能结果。


We also must abandon the idea of a one-size-fits-all model for expanding access to health care and adjust our approaches to ensure the best fit with local health priorities and customs.	我们还必须找到扩大医疗卫生服务的万灵模式的想法，灵活调整方法，以确保与当地卫生当务之急和习俗习惯实现最佳契合。


With education and prevention, capacity-building, and new kinds of partnerships, we can continue to improve access to health care in Xinjiang and beyond, boosting well-being throughout the developing world.	通过教育和预防、医疗卫生服务能力建设和新型合作，我们可以继续改善新疆和其他地区的医疗卫生服务覆盖，提高整个发展中世界的福利。


The African Breadbasket	非洲粮仓


KIGALI – On the first World Food Day in 1945, people around the world celebrated the creation of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the launch of the first coordinated global action to combat hunger.	基加利—在1945年首个世界粮食日上，全世界人民庆祝联合国粮农组织成立、第一个消灭饥饿的全球合作计划启动。


This year, on the 70th World Food Day, countries are mobilizing behind the Sustainable Development Goals – one of which calls for the elimination of hunger and malnutrition by 2030, together with the creation of a more resilient and sustainable food system.	今年，在第70个世界粮食日上，各国在可持续发展目标——其中之一要求在2030年消灭饥饿和营养不良，并建立恢复力和可持续性更强的粮食体系——的引领下动员起来。


Can it be done?	这一目标可以实现吗？


With the world population growing rapidly (to an estimated 8.5 billion by 2030), the impact of climate change becoming increasingly apparent, and the amount of arable land dwindling, there can be no denying that achieving this goal will be a daunting challenge.	世界人口增长迅速（到2030年预计将达80亿），气候变化的影响日益明显，适耕土地面积不断萎缩，不可否认，实现这一目标是一项艰巨的挑战。


But for Africa, which boasts 60% of the world’s arable land and climates conducive to a tremendous diversity of crops, striving to do so represents a remarkable opportunity to ensure food security for Africans (one in four is undernourished) and boost its economy by becoming a major food exporter.	但对非洲而言——非洲拥有全世界60%的适耕土地和有利于巨大的作物多样性的气候——努力实现这一目标是一次确保非洲人粮食安全、通过成为主要粮食出口市场提振经济的良机。


Though many African economies have experienced rapid growth in recent years, the agricultural sector has remained stagnant.	尽管许多非洲国家近几年来经济快速增长，但农业部门仍处于停滞状态。


Indeed, African agriculture is still dominated by small-scale farmers who lack access to productivity-boosting technology, focus mainly on a narrow range of products, and remain poorly linked to markets, manufacturing, and the broader economy.	事实上，非洲农业仍由小农主导，他们无法获得提高生产率的技术，主要集中于少数产品，与市场、制造业和更广义的经济联系也不太密切。


Beyond undermining food security – Africa remains a major food importer – low agricultural productivity contributes to the persistence of rural poverty, even as a middle class emerges in many of Africa’s cities.	除了不利于粮食安全——非洲仍是主要粮食进口市场——农业生产率水平低下还导致了顽固的农村贫困，虽然许多非洲城市已经出现了中产阶级。


Africa can and should be the world’s breadbasket.	非洲能够也应该成为世界的粮仓。


But to realize this vision – and to do it in an environmentally sustainable way – its agricultural sector must undergo a genuine transformation that entails higher capital investment, significant crop diversification, and improved linkages to burgeoning urban consumer markets.	但要实现这一愿景——并且以环境可持续的方式实现这一愿景——非洲农业部门需要经历一次真正的转型，提高资本投资、大幅增加作物多样化、改善与欣欣向荣的���镇消费市场的连接。


Moreover, Africa must start manufacturing more value-added food products for both internal consumption and export, especially to countries like India and China, where demand is growing.	此外，非洲还必须开始制造更多高增加值粮食产品以供内需和出口，特别是需求正在增加的印度和中国等国家。


From Europe and North America to East Asia and Latin America, agricultural advances have proved to be key precursors of industrial development and gains in living standards.	从欧洲和北美到东亚和拉丁美洲，农业进步都被证明是工业发展和生活水平提高的关键先行指标。


Africa has the added benefit of technologies that other regions lacked at this stage of their agricultural development, from cost-competitive off-grid solar power to mechanisms for mapping soil characteristics, regulating water use, and ensuring farmers’ access to accurate price information.	非洲还有额外的优势：它有用其他地区在处于农业发展的这一阶段时所没有的技术，包括成本低廉的离网太阳能、土壤性质地图、规范用水、确保农民能够获得准确的价格信息等。


And innovation is already happening.	而创新已经开始。


Rwanda, for example, is working to link agriculture support with broader services like electricity and education.	比如，卢旺达正致力于将农业支持与更广义的服务（如电力和教育）联系起来。


And the country’s farming communities are pioneering participatory decision-making structures for agricultural planning and conflict-resolution mechanisms to settle disputes among growers.	卢旺达农村社会正在率先尝试农业规划的参与式决策结构和解决种植户之间纠纷的冲突解决机制。


To bolster agricultural innovation and modernization, governments must ensure that farmers have secure titles to their land, and thus an incentive to make the needed investments.	要刺激农业创新和现代化，政府必须确保农民牢牢获得土地权利，从而形成进行必要投资的激励。


The challenge lies in the fact that, in many parts of Africa, land is communally owned, with almost everyone in a village having traditional rights to some farming land – a system that has helped to prevent landlessness and destitution in rural areas.	挑战在于一个事实：在非洲许多地方，土地是共有的，一个村子里几乎所有村民都拥有某些耕地的传统权利——这一制度有助于防止农村地区的失地和赤贫。


Given this, reforms to make land tenure more compatible with modern commercial agriculture must be sensitive to local traditions and respect the ownership rights of communities and traditional smallholders.	因此，让土地占有情况与现代商品农业更加相容的改革必须对地方传统十分敏感，并尊重社区和传统小农的所有权。


Of course, agricultural development can have serious economy-wide pitfalls, which must be navigated carefully.	当然，农业发展可能存在严重的影响整个经济的陷阱，必须小心行事。


For example, as technology-driven productivity gains reduce the number of workers needed on farms, strategies to boost employment in other parts of the value chain and to manage migration to cities become even more essential.	比如，科技带来的生产率提高降低了低头劳动所需工人数量，因此，促进价值链其他部分的就业和管理农村向城市移民的战略就变得更加关键了。


With Africa’s rural population already largely underemployed, there is no time to waste in implementing such strategies.	非洲农村人口大多处于半失业状态，因此实施这样的战略刻不容缓。


Fortunately, Africa’s large population of increasingly well-educated young people, who are largely uninterested in the backbreaking work of subsistence farming, is well suited to fill the higher value-added jobs that emerge in the agricultural sector and beyond.	幸运的是，非洲有大量教育程度越来越高的年轻人口，他们大多对繁重的自给农业兴趣不大，对参与农业和其他部门中所出现的附加值更高的岗位做好了准备。


Another potential pitfall of agricultural development is environmental damage, including land degradation, soil nutrient mining, excessive water use, and water pollution.	农业发展的另一个潜在陷阱是环境破坏，包括土地退化、土壤营养流失、过度用水和水污染。


Here, again, Africa can benefit from experience and know-how that other regions could not access at a similar stage in their agricultural development.	在这方面，非洲也得益于其他地区处于农业发展的类似阶段时所无法获得的经验的知识。


By drawing on other countries’ best practices – and avoiding their mistakes – Africa can develop an environmentally sustainable agricultural system that fits African conditions.	通过引进其他国家的最佳实践——并避免它们的错误——非洲可以发展出适合非洲的条件的环境可持续的农业体系。


Such a system must place a high priority on protecting biodiversity and prevent the emergence of monocultures across the continent, which is home to some of the world’s richest ecosystems.	这一体系必须着重强调保护生物多样性、阻止非洲大陆出现单作，因为非洲是全世界不少最丰富的生态系统的所在地。


Climate-change considerations – including the expected costs of mitigation and adaptation – must be central to the process of upgrading agriculture, including the relevant infrastructure.	气候变化考虑——包括遏制和适应的预期成本——必须成为农业升级（包括相关基础设施）过程的核心。


Ultimately, each country must chart its own course toward agricultural development.	最后，每个国家都必须自主决定自身的农业发展过程。


But cooperation – even just to exchange ideas and emulate best practices – can help the process considerably.	但合作——哪怕仅仅是交换思路和模仿最佳实践——大大有助于这一过程。


That is why, next March, the African Transformation Forum in Kigali will convene leading figures from African governments, business, academia, and civil society to discuss practical next steps toward agricultural transformation in Africa, and the broader push to build globally competitive economies.	因此，明年3月，基加利非洲转型论坛（African Transformation Forum）将召集非洲各国政府、商界、学界和公民社会领导人，讨论非洲农业转型接下来的实践步骤，以及如何构建具有全球竞争力的经济。


Africa’s agricultural transformation will be a long and complex process.	非洲的农业转型将是一个漫长而复杂的过程。


But it has the potential to ensure regional food security, promote broader economic development, and ultimately help to feed the world.	但非洲有潜力确保地区粮食安全、促进更广泛的经济发展、最终帮助养活全世界。


We are confident that African leaders will rise to the challenge.	我们有信心，非洲领导人能够应对这一挑战。


Breaking the Ice in the South China Sea	破冰南海


MANILA – Three months ago, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to the resources in the West Philippine Sea (also known as the South China Sea), and thus that the Philippines has exclusive rights to the territory.	马尼拉—三个月前，海牙常设仲裁庭裁决中国对西菲律宾海（亦称南海）资源的历史权利主张没有法律依据，因此菲律宾拥有该海域的专属权利。


China rejected the ruling, and an icy chill overcame the once-friendly bilateral relationship.	中国拒绝了这一裁决，曾经友好的两国关系也急转直下。


It is time to bring back some warmth.	现在，应该让这一关系重新转暖。


Soon after the ruling, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte unexpectedly designated me, at age 88, to be my country’s special envoy to China, with the goal of doing just that.	海牙裁决做出不久，菲律宾总统杜特尔特出人意料地任命年已88岁的我担任特使，派往中国，目的就是要修复两国关系。


Thanks to Hong Kong bankers (including my personal friend Wai Sun Ng of Jibsen Capital), my first point of contact was Fu Ying, who has served as China’s ambassador to the Philippines and as Deputy Foreign Minister.	感谢香港银行界人士（包括我在Jibsen Capital的朋友Wai Sun Ng），我首先联络了中国驻菲律宾大使、外交部副部长傅莹。


I was fortunate to meet Fu, who is now Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress.	很幸运能与傅莹会晤，现在她是中国人大外事委员会主任委员。


She not only possesses detailed knowledge of the issues surrounding the South China/West Philippine Sea, but is also well informed about Philippine culture and politics.	她不但对南海/西菲律宾海的有关问题了如指掌，也十分熟悉菲律宾的文化和政治。


In our first exploratory meeting, I also made contact with the similarly knowledgeable Wu Shicun, President of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies.	在第一次试探性会面中，我还与傅莹一样了解情况的中国南海研究院院长吴士存取得了联系。


The atmosphere at our meeting was friendly.	我们的会面的氛围是友好的。


In their private capacities, Wu and Fu openly discussed the need to find a way forward that would ensure enduring peace and closer cooperation between China and the Philippines.	就私人立场而论，傅莹和吴士存公开讨论了找到一个能确中菲之间保持久和平和加强合作的前进方向的必要性。


But, reflecting the deep sensitivity of the territorial issue on both sides, our meeting’s primary conclusion was that reducing tensions would require more discussions aimed at boosting trust and confidence.	但是，我们的会面的主要结果是缓和紧张需要更多的旨在加强互信和信心的讨论，这也反映了领土问题对双方来说都是非常敏感的问题。


Such discussions would, over time, have to address a wide range of issues.	假以时日，这些讨论必须解决范围甚广的一系列问题。


For starters, China and the Philippines should agree on the need for marine preservation.	首先，中国和菲律宾应该就保护海洋的需要达成一致。


To avoid tensions, fishing in the West Philippine Sea should be carefully managed.	为了避免紧张，西菲律宾海的捕捞作业应该谨慎管理。


In fact, cooperation on fishing should be added to the bilateral agenda, as should joint efforts to confront drug trafficking, smuggling, and corruption.	事实上，渔业合作应该被列入双边议程，并应该采取联合行动应对贩毒、走私和腐败。


Mutually beneficial efforts to improve tourism and encourage trade and investment, and to promote exchanges among think tanks and academic institutions on relevant issues, also hold substantial promise.	促进旅游业、鼓励贸易和投资、加强智库和学界在想干问题上的交流的双赢措施也应该加大力度。


These priorities are reflected in the recommendations that I presented to Duterte.	我将这些重点写入了呈给杜特尔特的建议书中。


The Philippines must, in my view, expedite the appointment and confirmation of an ambassador to China, in order to continue exploratory talks and seize opportunities to build trust and find common ground.	我认为，菲律宾必须加快任命和确认驻华大使，从而继续进行试探性谈判并抓住机会构建信任、寻找共同点。


As we make progress on that front, we must pursue agreements on issues relating to fishing, tropical fruits, tourism, and infrastructure that support China’s maritime Silk Road initiative in and around the Philippines.	与此同时，我们必须追求就渔业、热带水果、旅游和基础设施等相关问题形成一致，支持中国在菲律宾及其周边的海上丝绸之路计划。


But, throughout all of this, it is vital to remember that the discussions are not just about rocks and atolls; they are about war and peace.	但是，在此过程中，关键要铭记谈判不仅事关岛礁，也事关战争与和平。


Just a year ago, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution – since approved by 195 UN member states – setting out a long-range strategic framework for avoiding a global armed conflict that could lead to World War III.	一年前，联合国大会经195个成员国批准，实施了一项决议，为避免可能导致第三次世界大战的全球武装冲突制定了长期战略框架。


In our meetings with Chinese actors, my team and I found the resolution to be particularly relevant – a clear reminder of the far-reaching implications of the current tensions.	在我们与中国行动方的会面中，我的团队和我认为该决议具有非常重大的意义——它明确地提醒我们当前紧张局面的深远影响。


As we told our Chinese counterparts, “The seas should be used to save and improve our lives, and to ensure mankind’s future survival.	我们告诉我们的中国谈判对手，“海洋应该用于拯救和改善我们的生活，以及确保人类未来生存。


They should not be places where peoples are killed and institutions destroyed.”	它们不应该成为杀人和摧毁制度的场所。


Fortunately, the Chinese accepted and even reiterated this fundamental belief.	”幸运的是，中国人接受甚至重申了这一基本信念。


In practice, this belief should translate into a commitment to avoid violent confrontation of any kind.	在实践中，这一信念应该转化为一项承诺——避免一切暴力冲突。


A war would do serious damage to the interests of both the Philippines and China, which possesses substantial wealth and military might, but needs peace to transform its economy and deliver a better life to the hundreds of millions of Chinese who still live in poverty.	战争将严重危害菲律宾和中国的利益，中菲两国都拥有巨大的财富和军事实力，但需要和平以实现经济转型、为仍然生活在贫困中的数亿中国人带去更好的生活。


Perhaps more significant, given the central role of the United States in Asian security, any dispute with China could quickly escalate.	也许更重要的是，考虑到美国在亚洲安全问题上的核心角色，任何与中国的纠纷都可能迅速升级。


This stark reality must underpin all discussions about the West Philippine Sea in the weeks, months, and years ahead.	这一严峻的现实必须作为未来几周、几个月、几年中一切关于西菲律宾海讨论的前提。


Of course, bilateral talks may be contentious at times.	当然，双边谈判有时可能会引起争议。


But there is plenty of incentive to make progress.	但我们有充分的激励取得进展。


Indeed, our geographical proximity makes the search for common ground between China and the Philippines a necessity, not a choice.	事实上，地理上的接近让中国和菲律宾必须而不是可以寻求共同立场。


Re-establishing the kind of long-term, mutually beneficial bilateral relationship that we enjoyed in the past – one that supports peace and sustainable development in our region – must be a priority for both sides.	重塑我们过去曾经有过的长期互利双边关系——能够支持地区和平与可持续发展的双边关系——必须成为双方的重点。


Don’t Do Stupid Economic Stuff	不要干经济蠢事


PARIS – On August 30, 2013, the United States was about to launch air strikes on Syria, where more than a thousand civilians had died in a sarin gas attack perpetrated by the army of President Bashar al-Assad.	巴黎—2013年8月30日，美国正准备对叙利亚发动空袭。 一千多叙利亚公民死于叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的军队实施的沙林毒气袭击。


But a few hours before the strikes were to commence, US President Barack Obama canceled them, surprising America’s allies.	但在袭击发动前几小时，总统奥巴马叫停了袭击，震惊美国盟友。


Instead, US diplomats engineered a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whereby Russia would take responsibility for removing chemical weapons from Syria.	相反，美国外交官与俄罗斯总统普京达成了协议，由俄罗斯负责让化学武器从叙利亚消失。


The Syrian civil war went on, without the US becoming directly involved.	叙利亚内战继续进行，美国不在直接涉足。


According to his recent interview with Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic magazine, Obama is “very proud” of the moment when he considered, pondered, and, bucking his advisers, decided not to follow the “Washington playbook.”	据《大西洋》杂志的杰弗里·戈德伯格（Jeffrey Goldberg）的最新采访，奥巴马在考虑、深思和否定他的幕僚、决定不遵循“华盛顿剧本”的时候“非常自豪”。


Not everybody applauded.	并非所有人都买他的账。


According to Goldberg, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton privately complained that “if you say that you are going to strike, you have to strike.”	据戈德伯格所言，时任国务卿希拉里·克林顿私下里抱怨“如果你说了要打击，你就必须打击。


But Obama refused to give priority to credibility: “Dropping bombs on someone to prove that you’re willing to drop bombs on someone,” he said, “is just about the worst reason to use force.”	”但奥巴马拒绝信誉优先：“向人扔炸弹证明你准备向人扔炸弹，”他说，“大概是最糟糕的动武理由。 ”


Obama’s stance was in keeping with his now-famous foreign and security-policy mantra: “Don’t do stupid shit.”	奥巴马的立场是保持其如今名声大噪的外交和安全政策咒语：“不要干傻事。


That dictum obviously alludes to his predecessor’s ill-judged decision to intervene in Iraq; but, more fundamentally, it expresses the way Obama approaches the balance of risks involved in major policy choices.	”这一格言显然暗指其前任干预伊拉克的误判； 但是，从更加根本的层面，它表达了奥巴马实现重大政策选择所涉风险之间的平衡的方法。


Evidently, he does not hold concerns about credibility in high enough regard to let his hands be tied.	显然，他并不过多地关心信誉以至于让它束缚住手脚。


The adequacy of the ultimate decision matters more to him than consistency with previous statements.	最终决定的恰当性对他来说要比是否与此前的声明相符更重要。


Preserving freedom of choice in addressing a problem is more important than sending the right message.	保留解决问题的选择的自由比释放正确信号更重要。


Judgment should not be obfuscated.	判断不能模糊。


One thing that security policy and economic policy have in common is that they force governments to choose between minimizing immediate damages and safeguarding credibility.	安全政策和经济政策的一个共同点是它们迫使政府在最小化即期伤害和捍卫信誉之间做出选择。


Economic debates also frequently place in opposition to one another those who emphasize unconstrained judgment and those who regard consistency as the gold standard of good policy.	在经济争论中，强调无约束判断者和将一致性视为好政策圭臬者之间也常常针锋相对。


This tradeoff was apparent in the summer of 2008, as the global financial crisis came to a head.	这一权衡在2008年夏天全球金融危机爆发时表露无遗。


After the US government had decided to bail out the investment bank Bear Stearns and to backstop the mortgage-finance agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a congressional uproar led President George W. Bush’s administration to vow not to inject any public money into Lehman Brothers, another ailing investment bank.	美国政府决定援助投资银行贝尔斯登（Bear Stearns）并支持按揭融资机构房利美和房地美引起国会大哗，小布什政府不得不承诺不向另一家濒临倒闭的投资银行雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）注入公共资金。


When it became clear that no private investor was willing to take over Lehman, the US Treasury lacked the resources needed to prevent a disaster.	当显然没有私人投资者愿意接管雷曼兄弟时，美国财政部却缺乏阻止灾难所需要的资源。


And disaster happened on September 15.	9月15日，灾难爆发。


Similar tradeoffs repeatedly arose in the course of the euro crisis.	类似的权衡在欧元危机期间再度出现。


Virtually all major episodes involved a choice between sticking to first principles and finding a way to fix a fast-developing crisis.	几乎所有权衡都牵涉到在坚持最初的原则和找到办法解决快速发展的危机之间做出选择。


But German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s own mantra was not quite the same as Obama’s.	但德国总理默克尔的咒语和奥巴马不尽相同。


For her, unconventional action could be justified only by an imminent existential threat to the eurozone’s stability.	对他来说，非常规手段只有在欧元区稳定性受到重大生存威胁时才是合理的。


This so-called ultima ratio doctrine was repeatedly invoked to postpone decisions or reject early fixes.	这一所谓的最后手段（ultima ratio）教条一再导致决策中止或拒绝采取早期修正措施。


It is hard to overestimate the significance of the dilemma between solving looming problems and avoiding moral hazard.	解决眼前的问题和避免道德风险的两难不可不谓兹事体大。


It is pervasive in finance and arises often in monetary or fiscal decisions.	它在金融界无处不在，再货币和财政决策方面也常常浮现它的身影。


One school of thought, epitomized by the US government, considers moral hazard a valid concern but thinks it shouldn’t be overplayed: “Firehouses don’t cause fires,” as former Treasury secretary Tim Geithner put it (or, in the words of Federal Reserve Deputy Chair Stan Fischer, “condoms don’t cause sex”).	美国政府所体现的思想流派认为道德风险是合理的考虑因素，但不应该过度强调：“消防局不会引起火灾，”前财政部长蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner）说（或者用美联储副主席斯坦·费希尔（Stan Fischer）的话说，“避孕套不会引起性行为”）。


Germany is the most prominent avatar of the other view: The long-term consequences of any decision should guide policy choices, and the expectation of insurance must not cause imprudence.	德国是另一个极端：任何决定，其长期结果应该指导政策选择，而保险预期不可导致不审慎。


The existence of such differences in attitude should come as no surprise: The tradeoff is a real one, and policymakers may have different views, depending on their experience and time preference.	存在如此态度区别并不令人惊奇：权衡是现实的，而决策者可能有不同观点，这取决于他们的经验和时间偏好。


The German school of thought, for example, emphasizes a policy system’s permanent rules of the game and tends to disregard the short-term costs of particular decisions.	比如，德国思想流派强调政策体系的持久游戏规则，倾向于忽视具体决定的短期成本。


Another, perhaps deeper reason is power.	另一个也许更加深刻的原因是权力。


For seven decades, the US government has been the ultimate fireman of the global system.	七十年来，美国政府是全球体系唯一的消防员。


Over that period, it has dealt with myriad crises worldwide and has learned to value discretion more than policy consistency.	在此期间，它处理过全世界无数危机，学会了重视自由裁量甚于政策一致性。


So what can be done to avoid stupid economic policymaking?	那么可以怎样避免愚蠢的经济决策？


What matters most is the transparency of the decision-making process and its aftermath.	最重要的是决策过程的透明度及其后果。


Avoiding the rigidity of rules must not lead to arbitrariness.	避免规则僵化不可导致武断。


A robust and critical exchange of arguments, and – especially when urgency does not leave time for prior discussion – awareness that any decision will need to be explained and justified ex post are excellent antidotes to the abuse of discretionary powers.	鲁棒和批判性的观点交换，以及——特别是时间紧迫以至于没时间进行预先讨论时——认识到任何决定都需要事后解释和论证，这是防止滥用自由裁量权的好方法。


Debate and accountability can go a long way toward killing bad ideas.	争论和问责可以大大有利于扼杀坏思想。


Arguably, this is easier to apply to economic policymaking than to the battlefield.	可以说，这应用于经济决策比应用于战场更容易。


But even economic and financial decisions may require secrecy and speed.	但即使是经济和金融决定，可能也需要保密和速度。


This is no reason for the relevant institutions not to organize an effective internal process or ensure proper ex post scrutiny.	这不是相关机构不去组织有效内部流程或确保合理的事后检查的理由。


In this respect, much progress can still be made.	从这个角度讲，仍有很大进步空间。


Improving Governance in the Arab World	阿拉伯世界治理改善


WASHINGTON, DC – A recent survey of 100 Arab thought leaders conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace revealed a sweeping consensus about what underlies many of the region’s problems: a lack of good governance.	由卡内基国际和平基金会不久前进行的对100名阿拉伯思想领袖的调查显示出人们对缺乏良好治理是造成地区问题的原因达成了全面的共识。


Indeed, those polled emphasized domestic problems resulting from that failure – authoritarianism, corruption, outdated education systems, and unemployment – over regional concerns, including the threat of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS) or interference by regional heavyweights or outside powers.	事实上，受调查者强调对地区问题失败（专制、腐败、教育体系过时和失业）的担忧导致了国内问题，其中包括自诩的伊斯兰国（ISIS）所带来的威胁或地区大国及外部势力所进行的干涉。


This is not new information.	这已经不是什么新闻了。


The Arab Spring uprisings brought to the fore the inadequacy of the region’s outdated social contracts in the face of current political and economic challenges.	面对当前的政治和经济挑战，阿拉伯之春起义凸显了地区过时的社会契约根本不足以解决问题。


Yet Arab governments still seem not to have gotten the message.	即便如此，阿拉伯政府似乎仍然没有意识到问题的症结。


Five years after the uprisings erupted, Arab citizens have little – in some cases, even less – voice in running their countries’ affairs.	起义爆发5年后，阿拉伯民众仍然在管理国家事务方面鲜有发言权——在某些方面，民众发言权甚至有进一步减小的趋势。


Moreover, they depend on rentier economies that are unable to create enough jobs for their young, educated populations.	此外，他们所依赖的食利经济无法为国内受过教育的年轻人创造足够的工作机会。


And they face an alarming absence of the rule of law, leaving them with no assurances that they will be treated equally, regardless of gender, ethnic origin, or religion.	而且他们法治缺乏的程度令人震惊，根本保证不了不同性别、种族或宗教来源的民众能够得到平等的待遇。


But poor governance today does not mean the Arab world is doomed to failure.	但今天的治理不善不意味着阿拉伯世界注定是要失败的。


Tunisia serves as a beacon of hope.	突尼斯就像一座希望的灯塔。


After the 2011 revolution, it pursued a consensual, inclusive process to develop a new social contract that upholds all of its people’s individual and collective rights.	2011年革命后，该国一直在奉行一种各方达成一致的包容性转型进程，目的是建设一种保护所有个人和集体权利的崭新的社会契约。


While Tunisia still faces serious economic and security problems, the national dialogue that the country has undertaken is the crucial first step toward resolving them.	虽然突尼斯人仍面临严重的经济和安全问题，但该国正在进行的国内对话朝解决这些问题迈出了关键的一步。


Other Arab societies now must undertake similar dialogues, with the ultimate goal of creating economies and institutions that meet their people’s needs.	其他阿拉伯社会现在也必须进行同样的对话，最终目的是建设能满足民众需求的经济和制度体系。


History has taught us that such transformational processes take time.	历史告诉我们这样的转型过程不能一蹴而就。


The long-suppressed ideas and energies unleashed by events like the Arab Spring must mature before having their full effect on society.	像阿拉伯之春这样的事件所释放出来的长期受到压制的思想和能量必须先经历成熟的过程，才能够全面地影响社会。


Consider the uprisings in Europe in 1848, in which citizens protested against authoritarian, feudal systems and the lack of economic opportunity.	以1848年欧洲起义为例，那次起义中民众反抗独裁、封建制度和缺乏经济机会。


By the end of that year, status quo forces managed to retake the reins of power, and the uprisings appeared to have been all but crushed.	截止到那年年底，维护现状的势力成功地夺回了掌控权，而起义力量则似乎差点被碾得粉碎。


But something had changed.	但有些东西发生了变化。


Taboos had been broken, and during the subsequent decades, technological advances enabled the spread of new ideas.	禁忌已经打破，而在随后几十年里，技术进步促成了新思想的传播。 封建主义没过多长时间就开始瓦解；


It was not long before feudalism began to dissolve; liberal and democratic values gained traction; women secured greater rights; and economic systems emerged that could boost productivity, achieve high growth rates, and improve living standards.	妇女获得了更多权利； 同时出现了提高生产效率、实现高增长和改善生活水平的经济体系。


A similar process is unfolding gradually in the Arab world, with citizens (especially young people) who lack trust in their governments seeking alternative sources of information and new ways to survive economically.	阿拉伯世界逐渐展开了类似的进程，对本国政府缺���信任的民众（尤其是年轻民众）寻找替代的信息来源和经济生存的全新方式。


This shift has so far gone largely unnoticed by governments, a reflection of just how disconnected they are from their own people.	迄今为止，政府基本忽略了这样的改变，这恰恰反映出他们不接近自己的民众。


But it will soon be impossible to ignore.	但这股潮流很快将变得无法忽视。


All of this comes at a time when another important development is underway: Oil-based rentier systems are rapidly diminishing, owing to the steep decline in energy prices over the last two years.	这一切进行的同时还在进行另外一项重要的改革：油基食利者系统正在迅速减退，因为过去两年能源价格呈急剧下降之势。


In particular, Saudi Arabia has been forced to initiate a shift toward an economic model that emphasizes investment and productivity as the main drivers of economic growth.	尤其是沙特阿拉伯正在被迫开展向以投资和生产率为经济增长主要驱动力的经济模式的转型。


Other countries in the region will have to follow suit and reform their economic systems, or face the wrath of their increasingly disgruntled citizens.	该地区其他国家也必须逐步跟进并改革国内经济体系，否则就要面对不满情绪日益高涨的民众的愤怒。


One important element of economic-reform strategies will be technology.	经济改革战略的重要内容之一是科技。 已经有2.


Already, 240 million Arabs – largely young people – have access to the Internet through mobile phones; by 2020, it is estimated that all Arab youth will be connected.	4亿阿拉伯人（主要是年轻人）能够通过手机上网； 据估计到2020年，所有阿拉伯人青年都将能通过手机上网。


Technology is facilitating the creation and sharing of knowledge, in a region that has historically lagged in this area, and technology start-ups are on the rise.	在这样一个有史以来在相关领域一直相对落后的地区，技术正在推动知识的创造和分享，而且技术创业也呈现出上升的势头。


This is not to say that technology is a panacea for the region.	这并不是说科技就是该地区的万能良药。


After all, ISIS is also using technology, but in a sinister way: to spread gruesome propaganda and recruit new members.	毕竟，伊斯兰国也在利用科技，但它的利用方式极其险恶：传播可怕的宣传攻势并招募新的组织成员。


But technology can speed up the Arab world’s social and economic progress, even as countries build a modern institutional framework capable of supporting it.	但就在各国现代制度框架为其提供支持的同时，科技同样可以加快阿拉伯世界的社会和经济进步。


Nowadays, no country can evolve without developing effective and credible institutions, establishing a meaningful system of political checks and balances, and diffusing control over decision-making.	目前，不建立有效可靠的制度、有意义的政治制衡及决策分权体系任何国家都无法发展进步。


These elements are vital to enable countries to offer their citizens an adequate quality of life.	这些元素在授权国家为民众提供高质量生活的过程中扮演着至关重要的角色。


In time, the Arab world will have them.	随着时间的推移，阿拉伯世界将拥有这套制度。


While the international community is focused on ISIS or Iran’s destructive role in the Middle East, most Arabs are focused on improving their lives.	在国际社会关注伊斯兰国或伊朗在中东破坏性作用的同时，绝大多数阿拉伯人则在关注如何改善自己的生活。


Their governments should encourage them.	他们的政府应当鼓励他们这样做。


Doing Well by Doing Good	通过做好事把事做好


WASHINGTON, DC – Two years ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk decided to open access to his company’s patents to anyone – a move that ran completely counter to traditional competitive behavior.	华盛顿—两年前，特斯拉CEO艾龙·马斯克（Elon Musk）决定向所有人开放公司专利——这一做法与传统竞争行为完全背道而驰。


Why would a company give away its hard-earned designs and technology to its rivals?	为何一家公司要向竞争对手拱手让出艰苦得来的设计和技术？


Whatever one may think of Musk, his courage must be appreciated.	不管你怎么想马斯克，他的勇气都是值得欣赏的。


He is rewriting the rules of business, based on the belief that Tesla’s success depends on that of the entire market for electric cars, and that his company’s commercial interests are inseparable from the interests of society.	他正在以一个信念重写商业规则：特斯拉的成功取决于整个电动汽车市场，他的公司的商业利益与社会利益密不可分。


Musk’s unconventional strategy could upend entire industries – for the benefit of all.	马斯克的非常规战略可能结束整个行业——为了所有人的利益。


If Tesla’s open patents succeed in bringing other players into the sector, it could transform what is now a niche product into a mass-market phenomenon – a transformation that would significantly advance the fight against climate change.	如果特斯拉开放专利成功地让其他选手进入行业，就有望将现在的利基产品转化为大众市场现象——这一转变将大大推进与气候变化的斗争。


There is no sense in asking whether Musk is trying to fight climate change or just trying to make a buck.	质问马斯克是为了抵抗气候变化还是仅仅为了赚钱是毫无意义的。


He is doing both.	他两者兼顾。


And, furthermore, it is exactly this type of public-minded capitalism that will be required of successful companies in the future.	此外，这种公共思维资本主义正是未来公司成功的条件。


We live in an age of enormous transformation – an era in which focusing solely on near-term financial results is a prescription for extinction, and addressing societal needs is entirely compatible with long-term profitability.	我们生活在大转变的时代——在这个时代，仅仅关注短期财务结果是自取灭亡之道，解决社会需要与长期盈利性完美相容。


While this view may seem unconventional at the moment, time will prove the pioneers right.	眼下，这一观点可能显得有些反传统，但时间会证明先行者的正确。


In the years ahead, successful companies will take the lead in tackling the most urgent development challenges of our time – everything from poverty and disease to climate change.	未来几年，成功的公司将领导解决现时代最紧迫的发展挑战——从贫困和疾病到气候变化的一切挑战。


Consider Kenya’s M-KOPA, a company that installs solar power kits and collects payments via mobile phones.	以肯尼亚的M-KOPA公司为例。 该公司安装太阳能套件，通过移动电话收费。


By delivering electricity at lower prices than their customers would otherwise have to pay for kerosene lighting, M-KOPA has delivered solar power to more than 330,000 low-income households in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania.	它提供的电费要低于客户用燃油照明的成本，目前为肯尼亚、乌干达和坦桑尼亚的330,000多户低收入家庭提供太阳能电力。


New connections are being added at a rate of 500 homes per day.	新入网用户以每天五百户人家的速度增加。


Phasing out kerosene has an immense impact on the lives of M-KOPA’s customers, their children’s health, and the environment.	告别油灯立刻对M-KOPA公司客户的日常生活、孩子的健康和环境形成了影响。


But the company cannot be considered a charity: its revenues are projected to reach $60 million in 2016, having increased by 400% in just two years.	但该公司绝非慈善机构：预计2016年公司收入可达6,000万美元，在两年之内增长了400%。


Another example is to be found in Peru, where more than 30 financial institutions chose a similarly unconventional path to profitability, working together to establish Modelo Perú – a platform that provides digital financial services.	另一个例子在秘鲁，30余家金融机构选择了类似的非传统方法盈利，它们合作建立了Modelo Perú，一家提供数字金融服务的平台。


In Peru, cash transactions had been the norm.	在秘鲁，现金交易一直占据主流。


The participating companies decided that it was in their collective interest to create a single national platform for mobile payments, and they worked with the government and four telecommunications companies to construct one.	参与公司认定，建立一个单一的全国移动支付平台有利于它们的集体利益，并与政府和四家通讯公司合作构建了一个这样的平台。


Today, the number of Peruvians with access to affordable financial services has expanded significantly.	如今，能获得平价金融服务的秘鲁人数量显著增加。


And the institutions behind the project have gained access to a much deeper pool of consumers than they would have if each had developed a separate digital platform.	而该项目背后的机构也获得了更深的消费群体，这是它们各自开发独立的数字平台所无法实现的。


My own organization, the International Finance Corporation, also knows the value of rewriting the rules.	我本人所在的组织，国际金融公司，也明白重写规则的价值。


In 2006, we introduced performance standards to help our client companies mitigate risks by applying environmental and social (E&S) principles and advancing the private sector’s leadership in responsible development.	2006年，我们引入了绩效标准，帮助客户公司通过应用环境和社会（E&S）原则和推动私人部门在尽责发展（responsible development）中的领导地位来降低风险。


Initially, other financial institutions were skeptical of our approach; they saw the application of strict standards as a sure way to lose business and profits.	一开始，其他金融机构对我们的方法表示怀疑； 它们认为严格标准的应用一定会导致业务和利润流失。


Within a few years, however, major banks and development institutions came together to establish the Equator Principles based on our E&S standards.	但是，不出几年，大银行和发展机构便合作在E&S标准的基础上建立了赤道原则（Equator Principles）。


Today, our standards are applied to project finance around the world.	今天，我们的标准被用于全世界的项目融资。


They have helped level the playing field within the banking industry.	它们帮助实现了银行业竞争的平等化。


In addition, through the Sustainable Banking Network – an association of central banks, regulators, and financial trade associations – we are helping countries develop national policies to boost green finance.	此外，通过可持续银行网络（Sustainable Banking Network，一个由中央银行、监管机构和金融交易协会组成的协会）我们帮助各国制定国家政策刺激绿色金融。


And we are seeing a growing appetite for this kind of expertise, from within governments and the private sector.	我们看到，对这类专业知识的偏好越来越大，不但来自政府内部，也来自私人部门。


The world has the momentum – and the means – to create a mass market for sustainable finance, one in which investment decisions are driven as much by E&S and good governance criteria as by creditworthiness.	世界有动力——也有方法——为可持续金融创造大众市场，让投资决定兼顾E&S和好治理标准以及信誉。


Companies that have signed the UN Principles for Responsible Investment have combined assets under management totaling $60 trillion.	签署了联合国尽责投资原则（UN Principles for Responsible Investment）的国家的资产管理总量已高达60万亿美元。


A growing number of businesses recognize that today’s formula for success includes a focus on pressing societal needs.	越来越多的企业认识到，当今的成功秘诀之一是注重推动社会需要。


As Musk has found out, the trick is to address those needs in ways that are profitable and sustainable in the long run, and then, when a beneficial business solution is identified, to work together to facilitate its large-scale deployment.	马斯克发现，诀窍在于以长期可盈利和可持续的方式解决这些需要，接着，当找到有益的商业方案时，合作推动它的大规模部署。


With a willingness to challenge assumptions and change conventional perceptions, we can change the world for the better.	只要愿意挑战既定假设、改变传统观念，我们可以让世界变得更好。


An Optimistic Case for the Euro	欧元的乐观情景


CAMBRIDGE – The prospects for the euro and the eurozone remain uncertain.	美国剑桥—欧元和欧元区的前景依然扑朔迷离。


But recent events at the European Central Bank, in Germany, and in global financial markets, make it worthwhile to consider a favorable scenario for the common currency’s future.	但最近在欧洲央行、德国和全球金融市场所发生的事情表明，我们可以对这一共同货币的未来感到乐观。


The ECB has promised to buy Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds to keep their interest rates down, provided these countries ask for lines of credit from the European Stability Mechanism and adhere to agreed fiscal reforms.	欧洲央行承诺购买意大利和西班牙主权债券以保持两国利率的低水平，只要两国向欧洲稳定机制（ESM）要求信用额度并信守财政改革承诺。


Germany’s Constitutional Court has approved the country’s participation in the ESM, and Chancellor Angela Merkel has given her blessing to the ECB’s bond-buying plan, despite strong public objections from the Bundesbank.	德国宪法法院批准该国加入ESM，总理默克尔也表示支持欧洲央行的债券购买计划，尽管德国央行公开表示强烈反对。


And the international bond market has expressed its approval by cutting interest rates on Italy’s ten-year bonds to 4.8%, and on Spain’s to 5.5%.	国际债券市场也对此表示欢迎，意大利十年期债券利率降至4. 8%，西班牙降至5.


Italian bond rates had already been falling before ECB President Mario Draghi announced the conditional bond-buying plans.	意大利债券在欧洲央行行长德拉吉宣布有条件债券购买计划之前便已开始下降。


That reflected the substantial progress Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government had already made.	这反映出意大利总理蒙蒂政府所取得的重大进展。


New legislation will slow the growth of pension benefits substantially, and the Monti government’s increase in taxes on owner-occupied real estate will raise significant revenue without the adverse incentive effects that would occur if rates for personal-income, payroll, or value-added taxes were raised.	新立法将大幅削减退休福利增长，蒙蒂政府业主自住房地产的增税将大量增加收入，而不会像提高个人所得税、工资税和增值税那样引起消极激励。


Reflecting these reforms, the International Monetary Fund recently projected that Italy will have a cyclically adjusted budget surplus of nearly 1% of GDP in 2013.	这些改革带来了怎样的成果？ IMF最新的预测表明，2013年意大利将产生接近GDP的1%的经周期调整的预算盈余。


Unfortunately, because Italy will still be in recession next year, its actual deficit is expected to be 1.8% of GDP, adding to the national debt.	不幸的是，由于意大利明年仍将处于衰退，其实际赤字预计将达到GDP的1. 8%，这笔赤字将加到国民债务头上。


But economic recovery will come to Italy, moving the budget into surplus.	但意大利终将迎来经济复苏，使赤字变为盈余。


When the markets see that coming, they will drive Italy’s sovereign interest rates even lower.  Given Italy’s very large national debt, interest payments add more than 5% of GDP to the fiscal deficit.	当市场意识到这一过程即将来临时，将把意大利主权利率推到更低水平。 由于意大利沉重的国民债务负担，利息支付将增加超过GDP的5%的财政赤字。


The combination of economic recovery and lower interest rates would produce a virtuous dynamic in which falling interest rates and a rising budget surplus are mutually reinforcing.	经济复苏加上利率下降将产生良性循环，下降的利率和增加的预算盈余将相互强化。


The situation in Spain is not as good.	西班牙的状况没有意大利那么好。


Despite cuts in government spending and increases in taxes, the IMF still projects the cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit to exceed 3.2% of GDP in 2013 and 2.3% of GDP in 2015.	尽管政府削减了指出、增加了税收，IMF仍然预测其2013年经周期调整的财政赤字将超过GDP的3. 2%，2015年超过GDP的2.


The key to solving Spain’s fiscal problem lies in the semi-autonomous regions that generate spending and shift the financing burden to Madrid.	3%。 解决西班牙财政问题的关键取决于产生支出并将融资负担抛给马德里的准自治区。


Perhaps Italy’s success will help to convince Spain to adopt the tough measures that reduce projected future deficits without more current austerity.	或许意大利的成功可以让西班牙接受能够在不进行更多紧缩情况下降低预计未来赤字的艰难的措施。


If Italy and Spain have budget surpluses and declining debt/GDP ratios, financial markets will reduce the interest rates on their bonds without the proposed ECB purchases.	如果意大利和西班牙产生预算盈余和下降的债务/GDP比率，那么即使欧洲央行不宣布购买计划，金融市场也会降低它们的债券的利率。


That would remove the serious risk that the ECB could start buying bonds on the basis of agreed fiscal packages, and then be forced to react if governments fall short on implementing them.	这可以消除一项严重的风险，即欧洲央行已两国同意财政改革为条件购买两国债券，随后两国政府并未兑现实事承诺，欧洲央行被迫采取措施。


None of this would be enough to save Greece, where the fiscal deficit is 7.5% of GDP, or Portugal, where it is 5% of GDP.	所有这些都不足以拯救财政赤字高达GDP的7. 5%的希腊和5%的葡萄牙。


But if Italy and Spain are no longer at risk of default, or of abandoning the euro, Germany and other eurozone leaders will have room to decide whether to continue funding these very small states or politely invite them to leave the euro and return to national currencies.	但如果意大利和西班牙不再存在违约或放弃欧元的风险，那么德国和其他欧元区领导人将有空间决定是否继续为这些小国提供资金支持，还是礼貌地邀请它们离开欧元回归本国货币。


Moreover, even under this optimistic scenario, the problem of the current-account deficits of Italy, Spain, and the other peripheral countries will remain.	此外，即使在这一乐观情景中，意大利、西班牙和其他外围国的经常项目赤字问题仍得不到解决。


Differences among the eurozone countries in growth rates of productivity and wages will continue to cause disparities in international competitiveness, resulting in trade and current-account imbalances.	欧元区各国在生产率和工资增长率上的差异将继续导致国际竞争力差异，造成贸易和经常项目失衡。


Germany now has a current-account surplus of about $215 billion a year, while the rest of the eurozone is running a current-account deficit of about $140 billion.	目前，德国经常项目盈余约为每年2150亿美元，而欧元区其余国家的经常项目赤字约为1400亿美元。


Italy, Spain, and France all have current-account deficits equal to 2% or more of their GDP.	意大利、西班牙和法国均存在相当于GDP的2%或以上的经常项目赤字。


As they come out of their cyclical recessions, incomes will rise, leading to increased imports and even larger current-account deficits.	随着它们走出周期性衰退，其国民收入会上升，从而增加进口和更大的经常项目赤字。


Those deficits must be financed by net inflows of funds from other countries.	这些赤字必须通过他国资金的净流入来融资。


If Italy, Spain, and France were not part of the eurozone, they could allow their currencies to devalue; weaker exchange rates would increase exports and reduce imports, eliminating their current-account deficits.	如果意大利、西班牙和法国不在欧元区内，它们可以让本国货币贬值； 贬值的汇率将增加出口、减少进口，消除经常项目赤字。


Moreover, the increase in exports and the shift from imports to domestically produced goods and services would strengthen their economies, thereby reducing their fiscal deficits as tax revenues rose and transfers declined.	此外，出口的增加以及用国产商品和服务替代进口品的也将提振经济，从而与税收的增加和转移支付的减少一道减少财政赤字。


And a stronger economy would help domestic banks by reducing potential bad debt and mortgage defaults.	更强的经济也有助于国内银行减少潜在坏账和按揭违约。


But, of course, Italy, Spain, and France are part of the eurozone and therefore cannot devalue.	但是，意大利、西班牙和法国都是欧元区成员国，因此不可能贬值。


That is why I believe that these countries – and the eurozone more generally – would benefit from euro depreciation.	这就是为什么我相信这些国家——或者更一般地说，是整个欧元区——将从欧元贬值中获利。


Although a weaker euro would not increase their competitiveness relative to Germany and other eurozone countries, it would improve their competitiveness relative to all non-eurozone countries.	尽管贬值的欧元不会增加它们相对于德国和其他欧元区国家的竞争力，但可以改善它们相对非欧元区国家的竞争力。


If the euro falls by 20-25%, bringing it close to parity with the dollar and weakening it to a similar extent against other currencies, the current-account deficits in Italy, Spain, and France would shrink and their economies would strengthen.	如果欧元区贬值20—25%，与美元保持平价，与其他货币也贬值相当的幅度，则意大利、西班牙和法国的经常项目赤字将有所下降，其经济将得到提振。


German exports would also benefit from a weaker euro, boosting overall economic demand in Germany.	德国的出口也会从贬值的欧元中获利，提振德国的总体经济需求。


It is ironic that the ECB’s offer to buy Italian and Spanish debt has exacerbated external imbalances by raising the value of the euro.	讽刺的是，欧洲央行的购买意大利和西班牙债券的行为通过提升欧元价值扩大了外部失衡。


Perhaps that is just a temporary effect and the euro will decline when global financial markets recognize that a weaker exchange rate is needed to reduce current-account deficits in the eurozone’s three major Latin countries.	也许这只是暂时措施，欧元会在全球金融市场认识到汇率贬值才是减少欧元区三大拉丁国家经常项目赤字的必须之策时贬值。


If not, the ECB’s next challenge will be to find a way to talk the euro down.	若非如此，欧洲央行的下一个挑战将是寻求欧元贬值。


Overcoming the Public-Sector Coordination Problem	克服公共部门合作问题


CAMBRIDGE – Public-private cooperation or coordination is receiving considerable attention nowadays.	坎布里奇—如今，公私合作或协作广受关注。


A plethora of centers for the study of business and government relations have been created, and researchers have produced a large literature on the design, analysis, and evaluation of public-private partnerships.	许多政企关系研究中心被建立起来，研究者在公私合作的设计、分析和评估方面也有颇有建树。


Even the World Economic Forum has been transformed into “an international organization for public-private cooperation.”	甚至世界经济论坛也转变为“一个公私合作国际组织”。


Of course, private-private coordination has been the essence of economics for the past 250 years.	当然，公私协作一直是过去250年中经济学的核心。


While Adam Smith started us on the optimistic belief that an invisible hand would take care of most coordination issues, in the intervening period economists discovered all sorts of market failures, informational imperfections, and incentive problems, which have given rise to rules, regulations, and other forms of government and societal intervention.	开创经济学的亚当·斯密抱有乐观的信念：一只看不见的手会解决大部分协作问题； 但干预时代的经济学家们发现了各种市场失灵、信息不完美和激励问题，这给了规则、监管和其他形式的政府和社会干预兴起的空间。


This year’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was granted to Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmström for their contribution to understanding contracts, a fundamental device for private-private coordination.	今年的诺贝尔经济学奖被授予奥利佛·哈特（Oliver Hart）和本特·霍姆斯特罗姆（Bengt Holmström），以表彰他们对契约理解的贡献。 契约是私私协作的基本机制。


But much less attention has been devoted to public-public coordination.	但对公公协作的关注要少得多。


This is surprising, because anyone who has worked in government knows that coordinating the public and private sectors to address a particular issue, while often complicated, is a cakewalk compared to the problem of herding the cats that constitute the panoply of government agencies.	这相当令人奇怪，因为只要你在政府中供职就知道，协调公共和私人部门解决一个具体问题尽管复杂，但与理顺叠床架屋的政府机构相比简直可以说是易如反掌。


The reason for this difficulty is the other side of Smith’s invisible hand.	这个难点的原因就在斯密的看不见的手的另一面。


In the private sector, the market mechanism provides the elements of a self-organizing system, thanks to three interconnected structures: the price system, the profit motive, and capital markets.	在私人部门，拜三种互相交织的结构所赐，市场机制提供了自组织系统的要素：价格系统、利润动机和资本市场。


In the public sector, this mechanism is either non-existent or significantly different and less efficient.	在公共部门，这一机制要么不存在，要么与私人部门有很大不同并且效率低下。


The price system is a decentralized information system that reveals people’s willingness to buy or sell and the wisdom of buying some inputs in order to produce a certain output at the going market price.	价格系统是一个分散的信息系统，它揭露人们购买或售卖的意愿以及购买投入品以市场价格生产某种输出品的智慧。


The profit motive provides an incentive system to respond to the information that prices contain.	利润动机提供了一个激励系统来响应价格所包含的信息。


And capital markets mobilize resources for activities that are expected to be profitable; those that adequately respond to prices.	资本市场动员资源用于预期能够盈利的活动； 即充分响应价格的活动。


By contrast, most public services have no prices, there is not supposed to be a profit motive in their provision, and capital markets are not supposed to choose what to fund: the money funds whatever is in the budget.	相反，大部分公共服务没有价格，其供给也不应该有利润动机，资本市场也不是为了选择为哪些公共服务提供资金：只要进入了预算，就能获得资金。


In the budget process, the finance ministry estimates revenues, targets a certain fiscal deficit, and deduces the overall spending level consistent with these numbers.	在预算过程中，财政部估算收入，确定一个财政赤字目标，推算与这些数字相符的总支出水平。


It then proceeds to allocate funds to all existing commitments and entitlement programs.	然后，财政部开始将资金配置给所有当前的承诺和福利项目。


The remainder is assigned for discretionary spending across various ministries in proportions often related to past budgets.	剩下的钱分给各部门用于自由裁量支出，起比例通常根据过去的预算确定。


Typically, ministers fight jealously over these spoils, as their ability to leave a mark in their respective fields often depends on it.	通常，各部门会为这些自由裁量支出斗个不可开交，因为它们要在各自领域有所作为往往必须依赖这笔资金。


Under this system, why would a minister spend money on another minister’s priorities?	在这样一个系统下，甲部为何要把钱花在乙部的重点上？


But addressing most problems in government involves multiple agencies.	但解决大部分政府问题需要众多机构的参与。


For example, bottlenecks in the tourism industry may involve airports, tourist visa requirements, or hotel construction permits, none of which falls under the tourism ministry.	比如，旅游业瓶颈可能包括机场、旅游签证要求、饭店建设许可等，所有这些都不归旅游部管辖。


Organizing the public-private dialogue to identify problems and propose solutions is eminently doable, as Piero Ghezzi, Peru’s former minister of production has shown.	组织公私对话理清问题、提出解决方案相当容易，秘鲁前生产部长皮埃罗·格兹（Piero Ghezzi）证明了这一点。


But organizing the public agencies to respond in a coordinated manner, given existing budgetary procedures, is a different matter: the ministry of foreign affairs may not give much importance to tourist visas.	但在给定预算程序条件下组织公共机构做出协作式响应是另一件事：外交部未必会给予旅游签证重要地位。


With separate and relatively independent budgets, coordination becomes very difficult.	在预算各自分离且相对独立的情况下，协作变得十分困难。


One solution is to create a market-like mechanism within the government.	一个解决办法是在政府内部建立类似市场的机制。


The idea is to assign a portion of the budget, say 3-5%, to a central pool of funds to be requested by one ministry but to be executed by another, as if one was buying services from the other.	其思想是将预算的一部分，比如3—5%，投入中央资金池，要求和执行的部门不为一 ，就像是一个部门向另外一个部门购买服务。


These resources would allow the demand for public goods to permeate the allocation of budgetary resources across ministries.	这些资源将让公共品需求影响各部门之间预算资源的配置。


Two metaphors may help clarify the idea.	打两个比方来说清楚这一思想。


Universal banks offer deposit accounts, credit cards, mortgages, business loans, and other products.	全能银行提供存款账户、信用卡、按揭贷款、商业贷款和其他产品。


At the front end, an account executive manages the relationship with the client.	在前端，客户代表管理与客户的关系。


At the back end, a different department produces each service.	在后端，不同部门创造每项服务。


The amount of resources that the back end gets depends on the demand for services identified at the front end.	后端获得多少资源取决于前端所认定的需求。


A similar situation arises in international financial institutions like the World Bank.	另一个情况是世界银行等国际金融机构。


At the front end, country directors manage the relationship with the “client,” meaning the country government.	在前端，国家主管管理与“客户”即该国政府的关系。


At the back end, experts in education, roads, electricity, water, and health care design and analyze project loans.	在后端，教育、道路、电力、水利和卫生专家设计和分析项目贷款。


The budget is given to the front end and the back end must “sell” their services to the front end, thus creating an internal market, so that resources are allocated based on client needs.	预算分配给前端，后端必须向前端“出售”服务，从而建立一个内部市场，让资源基于客户需求进行配置。


While all ministries have their external constituencies, some ministries have more of a front-end, “account executive” nature: their core mission involves coordinating the provision of public goods to different parts of the economy.	所有部门都有其外部负责对象，但一些部门的前端“客户代表”性质更重：它们的核心任务包括协调经济中不同部分公共品的供应。


Ministries of agriculture, industry, tourism, and urban development, are some examples.	农业部、工业部、旅游部和城市发展部均属此列。


By contrast, finance and infrastructure ministries of have more of a back-end character.	相反，财政部和基础设施部更具后端性质。


The central pool of resources is designed to increase the responsiveness of one ministry’s back end to the demands of society as identified by another ministry’s front end, without these resources competing with the priorities that each ministry has for its “own” budget.	中央资源池的设计必须增加一个部门后端对灵异部门的前端所认定的社会需求的代表性，而不让这些资源与拥有“自己的”预算的各部门的重点竞争。


By allocating a small proportion of each year’s budget to priorities identified in this way, we may find that, over time, budgets become more responsive and better reflect society’s evolving needs.	通过将每年的一小部分预算配置给用这种方法所确定的重点，我们会发现，假以时日，预算的响应性变得更强，更能体现社会需求的变化。


And public-private coordination may flourish once the public-public bottlenecks are removed.	而一旦公公瓶颈被打破，公私协作也有望蓬勃发展。


In Cautious Praise of Latin America	谨慎赞美拉丁美洲


BUENOS AIRES/WASHINGTON, DC – US President Barack Obama’s trip this month to Brazil, Chile, and El Salvador is a good opportunity to assess the recent performance of Latin America’s economies, and to analyze their prospects and risks going forward.	布宜诺斯艾利斯/华盛顿——美国总统本月出访巴西、智利和萨尔瓦多是评估拉美近期经济状况、分析拉美国家发展风险和前景的一次难得的机会。


Latin America showed strong resilience during the international financial crisis.	拉美国家在国际金融危机中表现出较强的应变能力。


While aggregate output fell in 2009, it recovered extremely fast.	尽管2009年的总产值有所下降，但很快就得到了恢复。


As the crisis hit, stronger banking systems and effective macroeconomic policies – including fiscal responsibility and low public debt, exchange-rate flexibility, and a large accumulation of international reserves – allowed Latin American countries to implement unprecedented countercyclical policies.	危机来袭时，稳固的银行系统以及财政责任制、低公共债务、灵活的汇率和充足的国际储备等有效的宏观政策使得拉美国家有能力贯彻前所未有的反周期措施。


Political peace was also preserved through social policies that reduced organized conflict.	控制有组织冲突的社会政策则有效确保了政治和平的延续。


In short, while Latin America’s economies were helped by high commodity prices, it is indisputable that the significant economic reforms adopted in most countries enabled them to have a “good crisis.”	简言之，虽然拉美经济受益于商品价格高企，但无可争议的是多数国家实行的重大经济改革也使他们把这场灾难转化为“良性危机”。


But this successful performance, together with high growth rates from 2004 to 2010, seems to have led to an unhealthy level of self-satisfaction among observers and policymakers in some countries.	但这次的成功表现，加之2004到2010年间的高增长率，似乎滋长了某些国家观察家和决策者中某种不健康的自满情绪。


Indeed, many now apparently assume that their countries have become immune to future shocks.	事实上，不少人现在显然认为他们的国家对未来的冲击具有免疫力。


Such complacency is unwarranted.	这种自满没有道理。


Although growth has indeed been significantly above trend in recent years, performance over the entire decade was unimpressive.	尽管近年来的经济增长确实远超平均趋势，但纵观十年来的总体表现并不令人满意。


Second, although countries have laid the groundwork for sustainable growth in a number of areas, the reform agenda remains vast, and most countries are not yet able to avoid the boom-and-bust cycles that have long plagued them.	其次，尽管拉美国家已经在若干领域奠定了可持续发展的基础，但仍有很多急待改革的领域，而多数拉美国家现在还不能避免一直困扰它们的繁荣萧条周期。


When it comes to GDP growth, most countries recorded 3-4% annual rates on average in the period between the crises of 1999 and 2009.	谈到GDP的增长，多数国家在1999至2009年危机期间取得了3-4%的年均增长率。


Countries like Uruguay, Mexico, and        El Salvador grew at a mere 2-2.5% rate.	乌拉圭、墨西哥和萨尔瓦多等国只取得了2-2. 5%的增长率。


Only the Dominican Republic, Peru, and Panama attained 6-7% growth.	只有多米尼加共和国、秘鲁和巴拿马实现了6-7%的增长率。


And, on a per capita basis, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Mexico eked out less than 2% annual growth on average.	而且从人均的角度考量，阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、乌拉圭、萨尔瓦多和墨西哥只取得了不到2%的年均增长率。


But it is the agenda of pending reforms that should stifle excessive complacency.	但有待实施的改革计划应该可以抑制过度自满情绪。


That agenda, with obvious country differences, spans five important areas, which together should be the focus of policy attention aimed at solidifying the region’s transformation.	虽然不同国家的改革计划差异显著，但它们同样涉及到五大重点领域，这五大领域相互结合就构成了旨在巩固地区转型的焦点政策领域。


First, governments need to adopt urgent business-climate reforms in order to foster investment, entrepreneurship, and innovation.	首先，政府必须紧急采取商业环境改革，为投资、创业精神和创新的发展创造良好的环境。


Latin America currently lacks a level playing field for entrepreneurship.	拉丁美洲目前缺乏创业精神得以发挥所需的公平竞争环境。


Without it, the region will not be able to overcome its low levels of productivity and competitiveness.	没有这些，该地区将无法摆脱低生产力和低竞争力的弊病。


Second, Latin America needs to overhaul its weak health and education systems.	其次，拉美国家需要改造疲软的医疗和教育系统。


Rapidly expanding demand for skilled workers cannot be satisfied as long as average schooling still totals eight years.	只要平均教育年限仍在八年左右徘徊，对技术工人快速增长的需求就无法得到满足。


Third, despite some significant improvements, major deficiencies in the coverage and quality of infrastructure are clearly affecting competitiveness and increasing costs.	第三，虽然已经取得了长足的进步，但基础设施覆盖广度和质量方面的重大缺陷显然仍在影响竞争力的提升并增加成本开支。


The private sector needs to become more involved in infrastructure, which requires the adoption of adequate public-private partnerships.	私有部门需要更多地参与基础设施建设，这就要求充分建立公私伙伴关系。


Fourth, the social gains of the recent past, while important, are far from sufficient.	第四，近年来取得的社会效益虽然突出，但相比需要仍有不小的差距。


Although the region’s poverty rate has decreased by 10 percentage points in the last decade, 180 million people remain below the line, more than 70 million are still indigent, and a large percentage remains just above the poverty line.	尽管拉美地区的贫困率在过去10年下降了10个百分点，但仍有1. 8亿人处在贫困线以下，7000多万人处在贫困状态，还有占很大百分比的民众刚刚越过贫困线。


Thus, soaring food and fuel prices are likely to upset efforts by governments to improve income distribution and social cohesion.	有鉴于此，飞涨的粮食和燃油价格很有可能抵消政府改善收入分配和社会团结的努力。


Finally, while Latin America’s resource-based economic model and the increasing importance of China in the region catalyzed the growth spurt that began in 2004, the share of high-technology manufacturing and services exports has decreased.	最后，拉美能源经济和中国在区域内日益增长的重要地位催化了从2004年开始的井喷式增长，但高科技制造和服务出口所占的份额已经有所降低。


Unless this trend is reversed, it will be difficult to improve the quality of jobs in the region, which could jeopardize social and political stability.	除非上述趋势得到逆转，否则该地区就业机会的质量将很难得到提升，进而可能威胁到社会和政治的稳定局势。


Latin America has come a long way.	拉美已经取得了长足的进步。


It passed the crisis test with flying colors, and the future is promising.	它以优异的成绩通过了危机的考验，未来前景一片光明。


But the region’s success should be seen as a base for cementing progress, rather than as an end in itself.	但该地区的成功应当成为巩固发展的基础，而不是将其视为目标本身。


Otherwise, countries risk losing their hard-won gains.	若非如此，拉美国家来之不易的成果就有可能丧失。


The Right Incentives for a Low-Carbon Future	创造低碳未来的正确激励机制


BERLIN – The climate agreement that world leaders reached in Paris last month has been widely celebrated for establishing the ambitious target of limiting the increase in global temperature to well below 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels.	柏林——上个月世界领导人在巴黎达成的气候协议得到外界的广泛称颂，因为协议雄心勃勃地设定了将全球气温控制在比前工业化水平提升2摄氏度以内的目标。


But the agreement is just one step, albeit an important one.	但尽管迈出了重要的一步，但也仅仅是最初的一个步骤。


Policymakers now must figure out how to achieve this goal – no easy feat, especially given that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, steadily rising costs for conventional energy cannot be counted on to propel the necessary shift toward a low-carbon future.	决策者现在必须找到实现目标的方法——完成这项任务绝非易事，因为让传统智慧始料未及的是，传统能源成本节节攀升无法再对朝向低碳未来的过渡起推动作用。


At first glance, the logic of negative economic incentives seems sound.	乍看上去，负面经济激励的逻辑似乎非常可靠。


If, say, driving a gas-guzzling car becomes more expensive, people will presumably be less likely to do it.	如果驾驶高耗油车越来越贵，人们这么做的可能性或许将会变小。


But the impact of changing fuel prices is partial and delayed.	但燃料价格变化的影响具有局部性和延迟性。


While drivers may purchase a more fuel-efficient car in the long run, they are more likely, in the shorter run, to reduce other kinds of consumption to offset the rise in cost.	尽管从长远看司机可能购买更省油的汽车，但从短期看，他们削减其他类型开支抵消油价上涨的可能性更大。


When it comes to resolving a problem as urgent as climate change, Keynes’s famous dictum – “In the long run, we are all dead” – clearly applies.	在解决气候变化这样紧迫的问题时，凯恩斯“从长远看，我们都死了”的名言显然适用。


Moreover, even if consumers did respond efficiently, fossil-fuel prices are dictated largely by heavily financialized markets, which tend to be extremely volatile.	而且，即使消费者采取有效对策，但化石燃料价格很大程度上由高度金融化的市场所决定，因此波动性极大。


The sharp decline in oil prices over the last 18 months is a case in point.	过去18个月石油价格急剧下降就是例证。


Not only have oil prices themselves failed to spur a reduction in consumption; they have undermined incentives to develop alternative energy sources.	不仅油价下降本身未能刺激削减消费； 而且还破坏了开发替代能源的积极性。


Investing in, say, solar power may have seemed worthwhile when oil cost $100 per barrel, but it looked a lot less appealing when the price dropped below $50.	投资太阳能发电或许在油价超过每桶100美元时颇具吸引力，但当油价跌到每桶50美元以下吸引力就小了很多。


Conceivably, policymakers could raise taxes to offset such declines.	可以想象决策者会增税来抵消油价下降。


But such hikes sometimes (like now) would have to be huge, and adopting erratic policies that mirror the volatility of the market is never a good idea.	但这样的上涨有时（比如说现在）需要涨幅巨大。 采取像市场波动般飘忽不定的政策绝不是好办法。


Carbon pricing could experience a similar fate.	碳定价机制也可能遭遇类似的命运。


In the European Union, carbon prices have been low for several years, and for now market participants seem to be following the herd in believing that they will remain so.	欧盟的低碳价已经实行了好几年，现在市场参与者似乎随大流地认为碳价会延续这样的状况。


But there is no guarantee that free emissions trading will not function like other financial markets, producing sharp fluctuations in CO2 prices.	但无法保证自由排放权交易不像其他金融市场那样运作，从而导致二氧化碳价格剧烈波动。


Should expectations suddenly change, the herd might turn and run in the opposite direction, causing CO2 prices to soar.	如果预期突然改变，人们也可能掉转头向相反的方向狂奔，从而导致二氧化碳价格大幅升高。


Yet another problem with the price-based approach to mitigating climate change is that it fails to account for markets’ potential to create perverse incentives.	靠价格方法缓解气候变化的另一个问题是没有考虑到市场创造反向动机的可能。


When the cost of conventional energy rises, new suppliers see an opportunity; thus, before June 2014, when oil prices were high, investors poured resources into developing shale oil and gas in the United States.	常规能源成本的上升令新的供应商看到机会； 因此，在2014年6月以前的油价高位阶段，美国投资者投入大量资源用于页岩油气的开发。


The additional supply, however, ultimately causes prices to fall, reducing the incentive to invest in alternative energy sources or energy efficiency.	但由此增加的供给最终导致价格下降，并降低了投资替代能源或能效的积极性。


This is a normal market reaction, but it does not advance the fight against climate change, which would require steadily rising costs.	这是市场做出的正常反应，但却无助于对抗气候变化，因为实现这一目标需要成本节节攀升。


The final reason why negative incentives alone are inadequate to mitigate climate change may be the most irrational: after some years of rising taxes, the public is staunchly opposed to any policy that may increase energy prices, regardless of whether current prices are high or low.	单靠负面激励不足以减缓气候变化的最终原因或许最缺乏理性：在若干年的税收增加后，公众不管目前价格高低，都坚决反对可能提高能源价格的任何政策。


People are so convinced that energy costs are “exploding,” despite the recent oil-price collapse, that any new project implying even slightly higher prices – even if overall energy prices are still lower than they were five years ago – is now exceedingly difficult to initiate.	尽管近期油价暴跌，但人们仍坚信能源成本“爆炸”，因此哪怕有可能造成价格略升（即使总体能源价格仍低于5年前）的任何新项目现在实施的难度都非常之大。


The implication is clear: When policymakers get to work designing strategies for executing the Paris agreement, they should not rely heavily on rising energy costs to advance their objectives.	其中的含义非常明确：决策者设计执行巴黎协定的相关策略时，不应过分依赖能源成本上升来实现其目标。


A strategy that assumes that the market will punish those who do not invest in a low-carbon future is not realistic.	指望市场会对那些拒绝投资低碳未来者施以惩罚的策略是不现实的。


A better approach is possible: Directly reward those who do invest in a low-carbon future, whether by enhancing energy efficiency or developing clean energy sources.	找到更好的方法并非绝无可能：直接奖励那些投资于低碳未来者，无论其通过提高能源效率还是清洁能源研发。 比方说，政府可以对投���低碳企业实行加速折旧；


For example, governments could implement accelerated depreciation schemes for investment in low-carbon businesses; offer subsidies for investment in energy-efficient buildings; and create policies that favor industrial innovation aimed at reducing emissions and boosting competitiveness.	为投资节能建筑制定补贴计划； 制定政策促进实现减排和提升竞争力的行业创新。


All of this would make fossil fuels less attractive to both investors and consumers.	这些都会导致化石燃料对投资者和消费者的吸引力下降。


While an approach based on such positive incentives would be costlier than tax hikes in the short run, the long-term benefits can hardly be overstated.	虽然基于上述正面激励的方法短期可能比增税代价更大，但其长远利益无论如何强调都不为过。


At a time of strong resistance to higher energy costs, this may well be among the most effective – not to mention politically savvy – mechanisms for advancing the goals set out in Paris.	在民众强烈抵制提高能源成本的时代，这很可能是推进巴黎目标最有效——更不用说政治上最明智的——政策方法。


The Inclusive Road to Growth	增长的包容之路


GENEVA – There is no bigger policy challenge preoccupying leaders around the world than meeting the need to expand participation in the benefits of economic growth and globalization.	日内瓦—没有什么政策挑战能够比满足扩大经济增长和全球化的好处的参与度的需要更加受全世界领导人关注了。


Indeed, a geographically and ideologically diverse consensus has emerged that a new – or at least much improved – model of economic development will be required if truly greater inclusiveness is to be achieved.	事实上，一个具有地理和思想多样性的共识已经出现，即，如果想要真正扩大包容性，就需要一个新的——至少是大大改善的——经济发展模式。


Unfortunately, this political consensus has so far remained aspirational, rather than prescriptive.	不幸的是，这一政治共识目前仍停留在构想阶段，远远没有规范化。


Policymakers have yet to develop an internationally recognized policy framework – with a corresponding set of indicators and measurable milestones – to guide countries targeting broad-based improvements in living standards, rather than simply continuing to use GDP growth as the bottom-line measure of national economic performance.	决策者还没有制定出得到国际承认的政策框架——以及相应的指标和可衡量里程碑——来指导各国着眼于范围宽广的生活水平敢删，而非仅仅继续用GDP增长作为国家经济表现的基本衡量手段。


The extent to which growth creates opportunities and improves living standards depends on an array of structural and institutional economic policies, including many in areas outside of education and redistribution (the areas most commonly featured in discussions about inequality).	增长能够在多大程度上创造机会和改善生活水平取决于一系列结构性和制度性经济政策，包括许多教育和分配领域（这两个领域常常在关于不平等性的讨论中被提及）之外的政策。


There is a growing recognition of the importance of institutions – particularly legal frameworks and public agencies that administer rules and incentives – in the development process.	制度在发展过程中的重要性正在日益获得承认——特别是法律框架和管理规则和激励的公共机构。


But this recognition has yet to penetrate fully the approach to economic growth that most economists and policymakers take.	但这一承认仍没有贯穿大部分经济学家和决策者所秉持的经济增长方针。


The role that institutions play in shaping economic growth was a key finding of the landmark 1993 World Bank study, The East Asian Miracle, which examined how eight countries in the region achieved “high growth and declining inequality” from 1965 to 1990.	制度在决定经济增长中的作用是1993年世界银行的标志性研究《东亚奇迹》（The East Asian Miracle）的关键发现。 该研究考察了1965到1990年间东亚地区的八个国家如何实现了“高增长和不平等性下降”。


The Commission on Growth and Development, chaired by the Nobel laureate economist Michael Spence, reached a similar conclusion in its 2008 report, The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development.	以诺贝尔经济学奖获得者迈克尔·斯宾塞（Michael Spence）为首的增长与发展委员会（The Commission on Growth and Development）也在其2008年的报告《增长报告：可持续增长和包容性发展战略》（The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development）中得出了类似结论。


The lesson is also apparent in the economic history of the twentieth century, when – especially in the decades following the Great Depression – most of today’s advanced industrialized countries underwent a sustained process of institutional deepening that broadened the base and strengthened the resilience of their economies.	二十世纪经济史也充满了类似的教训。 二十世纪——特别是大萧条后的几十年——当今大部分发达工业化国家都经历了持续的制度深��，制度深化扩大了基础，增强了经济的恢复力。


Reforms targeting labor policy, the investment climate, social insurance, competition, education, and infrastructure created a more inclusive and more sustainable growth model by spreading purchasing power, which supported aggregate demand and reduced vulnerability to investment-driven booms and busts.	以劳动力政策、投资气候、社会保险、竞争、教育和基础设施为目标的改革通过传播购买力（它支持了总需求、使经济不再容易受到投资驱动的枯荣循环的影响）创造了更包容、更可持续的增长模式。


It is a lesson that needs relearning today, as the world economy continues to struggle to find a more solid foundation for growth and escape the shadow of the 2008-2009 crisis.	今天，世界经济仍在苦苦寻找更可靠的增长公式，摆脱2008—2009年危机的阴影，我们需要回顾这一教训。


Adopting a more socially inclusive model of growth and development will require widening the lens through which priorities are set when shaping national economic strategies.	采取社会包容性更好的增长和发展模式需要扩大在制定国家经济战略重点时的视野。


Appropriate policies regarding macroeconomics, trade, and financial stability will remain crucial to establishing the basic conditions for the efficient allocation of resources underpinning growth.	宏观经济、贸易和金融稳定方面的适当政策仍是为有效配置资源以支持增长创造基本条件的关键。


But such policies are only part of the solution.	但这些政策只是解决方案的一部分。


Developing domestic institutions and appropriate incentives in a broad range of other areas that are relevant for social inclusion will be vital to improving living standards, while reinforcing the growth process itself.	制定国内制度和在对社会包容而言十分重要的广大其他领域的适当的激励将是改善生活水平、同时增强增长过程本身的关键。


Both types of policies – macroeconomic management and measures that boost inclusiveness – deserve equal attention in national economic strategies.	两类政策——宏观经济管理和提振激励的措施——需要在国家经济战略中得到同样的关注度。


It is important not to underestimate the cultural change that this will require of governments and economic advisers.	很重要的一点是不要低估文化变化，这需要政府和经济顾问。


The concept of “structural reform” usually refers to measures aimed at boosting economic growth by sharpening market signals and restoring the health of public finances.	“结构改革”的概念常常是指旨在通过加强市场信号和重塑公共财政健康提振经济增长的措施。


Such policies are often implemented in response to fiscal or balance-of-payments crises and frequently squeeze living standards in the short term.	这些政策常常作为应对财政或收支平衡危机的手段实施，在短期往往会恶化生活水平。


But the strengthening of institutions in areas that promote social inclusion is also a form of structural reform, in this case aimed at maximizing the contribution of growth to broad living standards and strengthening its resilience.	但强化促进社会包容的领域的制度也是文化改革的一种形式，这里的目标是让增长对广义生活水平的贡献最大化和强化其恢复力。


Our research has identified 15 domains that are important for promoting social inclusion.	我们的研究发现了对15个对促进社会包容十分重要的领域。


These include educational opportunity and performance, the relationship between productivity and wage growth, the concentration of economic rents, the effectiveness of the financial system’s intermediation of investment in the real economy, physical and digital infrastructure, and the coverage and adequacy of basic social protections.	它们包括教育机会和表现、生产率和工资增长之间的关系、经济租的集中度、金融系统作为实体经济投资媒介的效率、实体和数字基础设施，以及基本社会保护的覆盖度和充足度。


They also include areas not traditionally considered equality-enhancing – such as facilitating asset-building through small-business and home ownership and combating corruption – but that are just as important as education or redistribution for improving living standards.	它们也包括传统上不认为是增进平等，但在提高生活水平方面与教育和再分配同样重要的领域——比如通过促进小企业和住房所有权构建资产和打击腐败。


There is no single ideal institutional mix for inclusive growth, but all countries should begin to think more systematically about strengthening their institutions and creating incentives to promote inclusive growth.	对于包容性增长，没有简单的理想制度组合，但所有国家都应该开始更加系统地思考强化制度和创造促进包容性增长的激励。


There is much room for improvement.	改进的空间很大。


In cross-country comparisons, no country outperforms its peers in every domain.	在跨国比较中，没有一个国家在每一个领域都能傲视群雄。


Indeed, not a single country scores above average across all 15.	事实上，没有一个国家在所有15个领域中都高于平均分。


It is possible, indeed essential, to be pro-equality and pro-growth, to advocate strengthening social inclusion while promoting the efficiency of markets.	支持平等和支持增长，在促进市场效率的同时支持加强社会包容，这是可能的，事实上也是至关重要的。


An inclusive model for growth and development is inherently pro-labor and pro-business.	增长和发展的包容性模式在本质上是亲劳动力和亲企业的。


It is time to put our aspirations to work.	我们应该拿出干劲来。


Economics in a Time of Political Instability	政治动荡时期的经济学


MILAN/STANFORD – Over the last 35 years, Western democracies have seen a rapid rise in political instability, characterized by frequent shifts in governing parties and their programs and philosophies, driven at least partly by economic transformation and hardship.	米兰—过去35年，西方民主郭嘉政治动荡急速加剧，其特征是执政党及其计划和哲学更迭频仍，部分原因是经济转型和困难。


The question now is how to improve economic performance at a time when political instability is impeding effective policymaking.	现在的问题是如何在政治动荡制约有效决策的情况下改善经济表现。


In a recent article, one of us (David Brady) shows the correlation between rising political instability and declining economic performance, pointing out that countries with below-average economic performance have experienced the most electoral volatility.	在一篇最新文章中，本文作者之一（大卫·布雷迪）发现政治动荡加剧与经济表现下滑之间存在相关性，指出经济表现低于平均水平的国家，选举波动性最大。


More specifically, such instability corresponds with a decline in the share of industrial or manufacturing employment in advanced countries.	更具体地说，政治动荡对应着发达国家工业和制造业就业比例的下降。


Though the extent of the decline varies somewhat across countries – it has been less sharp in Germany than in the United States, for example – the pattern is fairly ubiquitous.	尽管下降程度各有各的不同——比如德国的下降程度小于美国——但这一模式是相当普遍的。


Over the last 15 years, in particular, increasingly powerful digital technologies enabled the automation and disintermediation of “routine” white- and blue-collar jobs.	特别是过去15年来，日益强大的数字技术带来了“常规”白领和蓝领岗位的自动化和脱媒。


With advances in robotics, materials, 3D printing, and artificial intelligence, one can reasonably expect the scope of “routine” jobs that can be automated to continue expanding.	机器人、材料、3D打印和人工智能方面的进步让我们能够期待可以自动化的“常规”就业岗位范畴还会继续扩大。


The rise of digital technologies also boosted companies’ ability to manage complex multi-source global supply chains efficiently, and thus take advantage of global economic integration.	数字技术的崛起还刺激了公司有效管理复杂多源全球供应链，进而得益于全球经济一体化的能力。


As services became increasingly tradable, manufacturing declined steadily as a share of employment, from 40% in 1960 to about 20% today.	随着服务日益变得可贸易，制造业占就业的比例持续下降，从1960年的40%降至目前的20%左右。


But, in most advanced countries, the tradable sector did not generate much employment, at least not enough to offset declines in manufacturing.	但是，在大部分发达国家，可贸易部门并没有产生许多就业，至少不足以抵消制造业就业的下降。


In the United States, for example, net employment generation in the third of the economy that produces tradable goods and services was essentially zero over the last two decades.	比如，在美国，过去二十年生产可贸易商品和服务的经济第三产业净就业创造量几乎为零。


Partly driven by these trends, the share of national income going to labor, which rose in the early post-war period, began falling in the 1970s.	部分拜这些趋势推动，劳动力所获得的国民收入比例从20世纪70年代初开始下降，在此前的战后早期阶段，这一比例是上升的。


While globalization and digital technologies have produced broad-based benefits, in the form of lower costs for goods and an expanded array of services, they have also fueled job and income polarization, with a declining share of middle-income jobs and a rising share of lower- and higher-income jobs splitting the income distribution.	全球化和数字技术带来了非常广泛的好处，如商品成本的降低和服务种类的扩大，但它们也助长了就业和收入的极化，中等收入岗位比例下降，较低和较高岗位比例上升，收入分布两极分化。


The magnitude of this polarization varies by country, owing to disparate social-security systems and policy responses.	这一计极化的程度因国而异，取决于不同的社会安全体系和政策反应。


Until 2008, when economic crisis roiled much of the world, the concerns associated with rising inequality were at least partly masked by higher leverage, with government expenditures and wealth effects from rising asset prices supporting household consumption and propping up growth and employment.	在2008年经济危机席卷世界大部前，与不平等性加剧相关的担忧至少部分被高企的杠杆杠杆所掩盖，政府支出和来自资��价格上涨的财富效应支持着家庭消费，提振了增长和就业。


When that growth pattern broke down, economic and political conditions deteriorated rapidly.	当这一增长路径破产时，经济和政治环境就讯速地恶化了。


Most obvious, the drop in growth and employment has amplified the adverse effects of job and income polarization.	最显而易见的是，增长和就业的下滑放大了就业和收入极化的消极影响。


Beyond the obvious practical problems this has raised, it has impinged on many citizens’ sense of identity.	除了由此产生的显而易见的实际问题，许多公民的身份感也受到了冲击。


In the post-war industrial era, one could reasonably expect to earn a decent living, support a family, and contribute in a visible way to the country’s overall prosperity.	在战后工业时代，你完全可以期待过上体面生活，支撑一家子人，并以看得见的方式为国家总体繁荣做出贡献。


Being shunted into the non-tradable service sector, with lower income and less job security, caused many to lose self-esteem, as well as fostering resentment toward the system that brought about the shift.	被迫进入不可贸易服务部门后，收入和工作安全性下降，这导致许多人丧失了自尊，也培养了对带来这一变化的制度的怨恨。


(It did not help matters that the same system bailed out the main driver of the economic crisis, the financial sector – a move that exposed a stark disparity between exigency and fairness.)	（同一套制度援助了经济危机的主要推手——金融部门，这一做法暴露出紧急性和公平性之间的尖锐对立，这也无助于改善情况。 ）


While technology-driven economic transformation is not new, it has never occurred as rapidly or on as large a scale as it has over the last 35 years, when it has been turbocharged by globalization.	技术推动的经济转型并非新鲜事，但从来没有像过去35年在全球化助推下发生得那样迅速、规模如此之大。


With their experiences and fortunes changing fast, many citizens now believe that powerful forces are operating outside the control of existing governance structures, insulated from policy intervention.	随着经验和财富的快速变化，许多公民现在认为强大的力量正在现行治理结构之外运作，它们与政策干预绝缘。


And, to some extent, they are right.	从某种程度上讲，确实如此。


The result is a widespread loss of confidence in government’s motivations, capabilities, and competence.	结果是人们普遍失去了对政府动机、能力和技能的信息。


This sentiment does not appear to be mitigated much by a recognition of the complexity of the challenge of maintaining incentives and dynamism while addressing rising inequality (which, at its most extreme, undermines equality of opportunity and intergenerational mobility).	这一情绪并没有因为人们认识到在维持激励和活力的同时解决不平等性加剧的挑战的复杂性而降低多少。 （在极端情形中，这一挑战破坏机会平等和代际流动。


As Brady points out, during the more stable period immediately following World War II, growth patterns were largely benign from a distributional perspective, and political parties were largely organized around the interests of labor and capital, with an overlay of common interests created by the Cold War.	布雷迪指出，在二战结束初期的较为稳定的时期，增长模式从分配角度看大多较为温和，政党大多围绕劳工和资本的利益组织，而冷战造成了政党之间共同利益的交集。


As outcomes have become increasingly unequal, there has been a fragmentation of interests across the electoral spectrum, leading to instability in electoral outcomes, political paralysis, and frequent changes in policy frameworks and direction.	随着结果变得日益不平等，选举阵营之间产生了利益分歧，导致选举结果不稳定、政治瘫痪和频繁的政治框架和方向转变。


This has several economic consequences.	这带来了不少经济后果。


One is policy-induced uncertainty, which, by most accounts, amounts to a major impediment to investment.	其中之一是政策所带来的不确定性，这从很大程度上对投资形成巨大障碍。


Another is the distinct lack of consensus on an agenda to restore growth, reduce unemployment, reestablish a pattern of inclusiveness, and retain the benefits of global interconnectedness.	另一个后果是关于重塑增长、减少失业、重塑包容模式和保留全球互联性的好处的日程缺少共识。


On one level, it is hard not to see this as a self-reinforcing destructive cycle.	在某种程度上，很难不把这看成自我加强的破坏性循环。


Political instability reduces the likelihood of defining and implementing a reasonably comprehensive, coherent, and sustained economic-policy agenda.	政治动荡降低了制定和实施相当完整、一致和持续的经济政策日程的可能性。


The resulting persistence of low growth, high unemployment, and rising inequality fuels continued political instability and fragmentation, which further undermines officials’ capacity to implement effective economic policies.	由此导致的持续低增长、高就业和不平等性加剧助长进一步政治动荡和分裂，而这有更深地破坏官员实施有效经济政策的能力。


But on another level, these trends may actually be healthy, as they bring concerns about globalization, structural transformation, and governance – which have so far been expressed mainly in the streets – into the political process.	但在另一种程度上，这些趋势也许其实是健康的，因为它们将关于全球化、结构转型和治理的关注——目前主要通过街头表达——带入了政治进程。


This kind of direct connection between citizens’ concerns and governance is, after all, a core strength of democracy.	毕竟，这一公民关注和治理的直接关系是民主的核心优势之一。


When a developing country gets stuck in a no-growth equilibrium, building a consensus on a forward-looking vision for inclusive growth is always the critical first step toward achieving better economic performance and the policies that support it.	当一个发展中国家陷入无增长均衡时，构建包容性增长的向前看愿景共识永远是迈向实现更好的经济表现和支持这一点的政策的关键的第一步。


That is what the most effective leaders have done.	这也是最高效的领导人所做的事。


The principle is the same for developed countries.	发达国家的原则也是一样的。


Our best hope is that today’s leaders understand it and will adhere to it, thereby putting their creative energies to work on a new vision that places their countries on a path to greater prosperity and equity.	我们寄希望于今天的领导人明白这一点，也能坚守这一点，从而将他们的创新能量放在构建让国家走向更繁荣、更平等之路的新的愿景上。


The Economics of Inclusion	包容经济学


CAMBRIDGE – Many people find economic growth to be a morally ambiguous goal – palatable, they would argue, only if it is broadly shared and environmentally sustainable.	美国剑桥—许多人发现经济增长是一个道德上模棱两可的目标——他们认为，只有在增长获得广泛分享并且具备环境可持续性时才是值得赞美的。


But, as my father likes to say, “Why make something difficult if you can make it impossible?”	但是，正如家父所言，“如果能让某事变得不可能，又为何要让它变得艰难呢？


If we do not know how to make economies grow, it follows that we do not know how to make them grow in an inclusive and sustainable way.	”如果我们不明白如何制造经济增长，自然也不会知道如何让经济增长变得包容和可持续。


Economists have struggled with the tradeoff between growth and equity for centuries.	几百年来，经济学家在增长和公平之间苦苦权衡。


What is the nature of the tradeoff?	权衡的性质为何？


How can it be minimized?	如何将它最小化？


Can growth be sustained if it leads to greater inequality?	如果增长导致不平等，它还能维持下去吗？


Does redistribution hamper growth?	再分配是否阻碍增长？


I believe that both inequality and slow growth often result from a particular form of exclusion.	我相信不平等和慢增长长产源于某种形式的排斥。


Adam Smith famously argued that, “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”	亚当·斯密有句名言，“不是屠夫、酿酒商或面包商的仁慈给了我们晚餐，而是他们为了私利给了我们晚餐。


So why would growth not include people out of self-interest, rather than requiring deliberate collective action?	”那么，增长为何不能包括私利，而是要求深思熟虑的集体行动？


It is well known that levels of income are dramatically different around the world.	众所周知，全球收入水平之间存在巨大差距。


Thanks to more than two centuries of sustained growth, average per capita income in the OECD countries is just under $40,000 – 3.3, 11.3, and 17.7 times more than in Latin America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, respectively.	拜两个多世纪的持续增长所赐，经合组织国家平均人均GDP已接近40,000美元，分别比拉丁美洲、南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲高3. 3、11.


Sustained growth has obviously not included the majority of humanity.	7倍。 持续增长显然没有将大部分人类包括进来。


What is less well known is that huge gaps exist within countries.	非众所周知的是这一巨大差距在几百年来一直存在。


For example, GDP per worker in the State of Nuevo León in Mexico is eight times that of Guerrero, while output per worker in the Department of Chocó in Colombia is less than one-fifth that of Bogotá.	比如，墨西哥新莱昂州（Nuevo  León）工人人均GDP是格雷罗州（Guerrero）的八倍，哥伦比亚乔科省（Department of Chocó）工人人均产出还不到波哥大的五分之一。


Why would capitalists extract so little value from workers if they could get so much more out of them?	既然资本家可以从工人身上榨取这么多价值，为何他们最终只剥削这么一点？