My former Harvard colleague and leading US diplomat Robert Blackwill and former State Department adviser Ashley Tellis expressed their unease in a report published last year.	我的前哈佛同事、美国外交领袖罗伯特·布莱克维尔（Robert Blackwill）和前国务院顾问阿什利·泰利斯（Ashley Tellis）在去年发表的报告中表达了他们的担忧。


The US has consistently pursued a grand strategy “focused on acquiring and maintaining preeminent power over various rivals,” they wrote, and “primacy ought to remain the central objective of US grand strategy in the twenty-first century.”	美国一直在追求“注重赢得和保持能压制众多对手的强大力量”的大战略，他们写道，而“主导地位应该继续作为美国二十一世纪大战略的核心目标。


But “China’s rise thus far has already bred geopolitical, military, economic, and ideological challenges to US power, US allies, and the US-dominated international order,” Blackwill and Tellis noted. “Its continued, even if uneven, success in the future would further undermine US national interests.”	”但“如今，中国的崛起已经对美国的力量、美国的盟友和美国主宰的国际秩序构成了地缘政治、军事、经济和意识形态挑战，”布莱克维尔和泰利斯指出，“如果中国未来继续保持成功，即使不是一帆风顺地永远成功，也将进一步威胁美国的国家利益。


US President-elect Donald Trump’s newly named trade adviser Peter Navarro agrees.	美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普最新任命的贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）对此表示同意。


“Whenever we buy products made in China,” he wrote last year of the US and its allies, “we as consumers are helping to finance a Chinese military buildup that may well mean to do us and our countries harm.”	“只要我们购买中国制造的产品，”他在去年讨论美国及其盟友时写道，“作为消费者的我们就在资助中国构建用于伤害我们和我们的国家的军事力量。 ”


With just 4.4% of the world’s population and a falling share of world output, the US might try to hang on to its delusion of global dominance through a new arms race and protectionist trade policies.	美国人口只占全世界的4. 4%，占世界产出的比重也在下降，它可能沉迷于主宰全球的幻觉，发动新军备竞赛和采取保护主义贸易政策。


Doing so would unite the world against US arrogance and the new US military threat.	这样做将让全世界团结一致反对美国的傲慢和新的美国军事威胁。


The US would sooner rather than later bankrupt itself in a classic case of “imperial overreach.”	美国自己也迟早会破产，成为“不自量力的帝国”的经典案例。


The only sane way forward for the US is vigorous and open global cooperation to realize the potential of twenty-first-century science and technology to slash poverty, disease, and environmental threats.	对美国来说，唯一的前进之路是通过充满活力的开放的全球合作实现二十一世纪科学技术的潜力，战胜贫困、疾病和环境威胁。


A multipolar world can be stable, prosperous, and secure.	多极世界可以是稳定、繁荣和安全的。


The rise of many regional powers is not a threat to the US, but an opportunity for a new era of prosperity and constructive problem solving.	许多地区力量的崛起不是对美国的威胁，而是新的繁荣和建设性解决问题时代的机遇。


Cities for Migrants	移民之城


CORK – In many countries, particularly in Europe, immigration is increasingly framed as a security issue.	柯克—在许多国家，特别是欧洲国家，移民正在日益被视为安全问题。


Mainstream politicians, bowing to pressure from fear-mongering populists, are calling for tighter restrictions, and some countries are openly flouting their legal obligation and moral responsibility to provide protection to refugees fleeing conflict.	主流政客屈从于煽动恐惧的民粹主义者，要求采取更严格的限制，一些国家公开蔑视为逃离冲突的难民提供保护的法律义务和道德责任。


But the news is not all bad.	但并不是所有的消息都是坏消息。


Even as corrosive political discourse impedes effective action at the national and international levels, at the municipal level, progressive and effective immigrant-integration initiatives are flourishing.	尽管有害政治话语阻挠着国家和国际层面的有效行动，但在市政层面，进步而有效的移民融合措施方兴未艾。


Mayors and local administrators are building social and physical infrastructure that supports the reception of migrants and refugees into local communities.	市长和地方政府们正在构建社会和实体基础设施以支持容纳移民和难民进入本地社区。


For them, the newcomers are not just statistics; they are real people – and potentially productive members of the local community.	对他们来说，新来者不仅仅是统计数字； 他们是活生生的人——也是地方社区的潜在生产力量。


The key to tapping their potential, city officials recognize, is a well-managed integration process.	城市官员们认识到，释放他们的潜力的关键在于管理良好的融合过程。


Of course, such a process is complex, and can raise concerns among residents.	当然，这一过程是复杂的，可能引起居民的忧虑。


New arrivals often place significant pressure on urban centers, particularly cities that are already struggling with scarce resources.	新来者常常给城市中心带来巨大的压力，特别是资源已经捉襟见肘的城市。


The challenges – from providing access to decent housing and health care to ensuring that transport networks and schools can cope with growing demand – are numerous and daunting.	挑战是繁复而巨大的，如提供体面地住房和医疗和确保交通网络和学校能够应对增长的需求。


That is why a proactive approach – not to mention plenty of ingenuity – is so important.	因此，积极主动的方针和另辟蹊径的才智至关重要。


And that is precisely what many city administrators are demonstrating.	而这正是许多城市管理者所表现出来的特质。


With New York City’s municipal identity card, iDNYC, all residents, regardless of their status, gain access to a variety of services.	只要你拥有纽约市市民身份证，即iDNYC，不管你社会地位如何，都可以获得各种服务。


In São Paulo, immigrants can contribute to public-policy discussions through a participatory council.	在圣保罗，移民可以通过一个协商委员会参与公共政策讨论。


The Barcelona municipal council, as part of a broader social-cohesion plan, launched the “anti-rumor campaign,” which uses a comic book series to combat negative stereotypes about migrants.	巴塞罗那市政委员会是更广泛的社会凝聚力计划的一部分，发动了“反谣言运动”，用漫画书来消除关于移民的消极刻板印象。


Collaborating with local businesses, municipal leaders have also channeled resources toward promoting entrepreneurship and work training for migrants.	市政领导人还与本地企业合作，将资源用于促进企业家精神和移民工作培训。


In Auckland, New Zealand, where one-third of the population is foreign-born, the Omega project, inspired by a Canadian initiative, matches new migrants with skilled mentors and offers paid internships.	在新西兰奥克兰，三分之一的人口出生于国外。 受一项加拿大政策的启发，该市推出了欧米茄工程（Omega project），为新移民提供高技能导师和带薪实习机会。


In London, the Bike Project refurbishes discarded bicycles, and gives them to migrants to serve as affordable transportation.	在伦敦，自行车计划（Bike Project）将废旧自行车进行翻新，送给移民作为平价交通工具。


There are thousands more projects like these, helping migrants and refugees to build new lives in their new communities.	类似的计划由数千项之多，它们帮助移民和难民在新的社会中构建新生活。


Better still, initiatives are no longer confined to individual cities.	更加令人欣喜的是，这些项目不再局限于个别城市。


Municipal leaders and local authorities are increasingly forming alliances with counterparts around the world to find solutions to common problems, share best practices, and turn the challenges of integration into new opportunities.	世界各地的市政领导人和地方当局正在日益形成联盟寻找共同问题的解决方案、分享最佳实践、将融合挑战转变为新机会。


For example, police officers from Toronto, a highly multicultural city, have trained their counterparts from Amsterdam in community outreach.	比如，文化高度多元化的多伦多市的警官通过社区外延服务（community outreach）为阿姆斯特丹同道提供培训。


The Mayoral Forum on Mobility, Migration, and Development, a United Nations-supported platform, aims to advance precisely this kind of dialogue and cooperation among the world’s mayors, municipal leaders, and regional authorities.	联合国支持的平台流动性、移民和发展市长论坛（Mayoral Forum on Mobility, Migration, and Development）的目标正是推进这类世界各城市市长、市政领导人和地区当局的对话与合作。


Launched in 2014 in Barcelona, the forum, which meets annually, operates on the principle that healthy and sustainable urban centers – a key component of any country’s dynamism and success – depend on the equal rights, duties, and opportunities of its residents.	该论坛2014年在巴塞罗那成立，每年举行会议，其运作原则是可持续的健康城市中心——国家活力和成功的关键要素——取决于居民之间平等的权利、责任和机会。


The forum also encourages the international community to engage with cities as “key actors in discussions and decision-making processes on the design of migration policies.”	该论坛还鼓励国际社会与作为“制定移民政策的讨论与决策程序的关键行动方”的城市精诚合作。


After all, cities – which already house more than half of the world’s population, a share that will rise to 66% by 2050 – have plenty of experience integrating new residents, both from abroad and from rural areas.	毕竟，城市——世界上一大半人口生活在城市中，并且这一比例到2050将增加到66%——有足够的经验融合新居民，不管来自国外还是来自农村。


The problem is that, despite devolution of power to local governments – a developed-country trend that is spreading to the developing world – many cities still operate with limited resources and authority to act.	问题在于，尽管地方政府得到了分权——这一发达国家的趋势正在扩展到发展中世界——许多城市的运行资源和权力仍然有限。


This must change – an imperative that the Vatican recently highlighted.	这必须 有所改观——这也是梵蒂冈最近强调的当务之急。


When the Pontifical Academy of Sciences announced that it would organize a summit on refugees and migrants later this year, it stressed that mayors “must be provided with the ability to meet the needs, accommodate, and regularize all types of migrants or refugees.”	教廷科学院（Pontifical Academy of Sciences）宣布它将在今年组织一场难民和移民峰会，强调市长们“必须获得满足需要、收容和治理所有类型的移民或难民的能力。 ”


National and international debates about migration are deeply flawed, owing to their focus on security – and so are the policies that result from them.	关于移民的国家和国际争论漏洞百出，因为它们的重点是安全——由此产生的政策亦然。


If municipal authorities – which have proved their willingness and ability to tackle the nuts and bolts of integration in innovative ways – were empowered to play a more active role in crafting immigration policies, everyone would benefit.	如果市政当局——它们已经证明了自己有意愿和能力游刃有余地通过创新方法实现融合——获得在制定移民政策方面扮演更积极的角色的权力，所有人都能从中获益。


Muppets and Middle East Peace	玩偶与中东和平


NEW YORK – Can furry puppets in Day-Glo colors provide the lessons we need to calm the fires of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?	发自纽约——那些色彩缤纷的玩偶是否能对我们有所教益，并有助于平息以巴冲突的怒火呢？


The Muppet empire is now worldwide.	这些玩偶早已闻名于世了。


Those who grew up with the children’s educational TV show Sesame Street know that it gives five-year-olds easy-to-take lessons in literacy, numeracy, and social skills.	那些看着儿童教育节目《芝麻街》长大的人都知道，这其实是一个为5岁大的孩子提供一系列关于识字，算数和社会交往的简明小课程。


But Sesame Street has a loftier agenda, finding partners in the developing world – including Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Pakistan – to bring the fuzzy little creatures, with their message of peace and tolerance, to local audiences.	但该节目也有一个崇高的目标——在包括沙特阿拉伯，南非和巴基斯坦在内的发展中国寻找合作伙伴，借助这些毛绒绒的可爱玩偶向当地观众传达和平与宽容的信息。


A new documentary, “When Muppets Dream of Peace,” tracks the harrowing joint production of Sesame Street in Israel and Palestine, with a Jordanian production team brought in to help facilitate.	而一部由约旦团队负责拍摄，纪录以色列和巴勒斯坦双方在联合制作本土版《芝麻街》中令人痛心的合作过程，名为《当玩偶期望和平》的新纪录片则在最近面世。


This program, like so many educational or cultural Israeli-Palestinian partnerships, began in starry-eyed idealism.	而片中所纪录的这个制作项目，正如许多以巴双边教育和文化合作那样，始于一种过分乐观的理想主义。


But, based on the film – and on a recent panel discussion with the filmmakers and a Muppets spokesman in New York City – it was undermined by a common flaw in such partnerships.	但在观看了纪录片，并在纽约与纪录片制作人和玩偶扮演者交流之后——我发现这场合作内部却潜藏着一个类似合作中常有的缺陷。


The original plan – like with so many of these programs – was based on a notion of parity: Israeli and Palestinian production teams would work together.	最初的计划——正如许多类似的计划那样——是基于一种平等的理念：巴勒斯坦和以色列的制作团队可以共同合作。


But the Palestinian partners vetoed that idea – “We aren’t there yet,” they explained.	但巴勒斯坦合作方却否决了这一想法，理由是“我们还未走到这一步。


Could they have a stand-alone Palestinian Sesame Street? No funding for that, came the reply.	”并提出能否独立制作一套《芝麻街》，而他们得到的答案是这并非资助者的意愿。


The Palestinian team finally agreed to parallel productions with a major “cultural exchange” element – rather than creating segments together, they would produce a series with Palestinian Muppets and adults that also incorporated cartoons and mini-documentaries produced by the Israelis and Jordanians. The other two teams would do likewise.	巴勒斯坦方面最终同意在一个主要“文化交流”元素下各自制作节目——而不是共同制作片段。 他们会制作一个将巴勒斯坦木偶和成人与以色列人和约旦人制作的卡通和小型纪录片相结合的系列节目。


Some unifying characters – such as an Arab- Israeli girl who explains each “side” to the other – would create a measure of continuity.	而另外两个国家的团队也将如此。 某些共有的角色——比如一个代表了双方的阿拉伯裔以色列女孩——将为节目带来共性和延续性。


The New York-based management wanted the Palestinians and Israelis to portray each other in a humanizing way.	以纽约为基地的管理团队希望以巴双方的制作团队都能以一种人性化的方式去描述对方。


Again, the Palestinians resisted.	巴勒斯坦方面再次拒绝了这个建议。


Rather than focus on creating scenarios that showed Israelis – even Israeli kids – in a positive light, they wanted to focus on showing Palestinian culture in a positive light, portraying Palestinian youths as role models, and providing images to kids that offered alternatives to violence.	他们宁愿以一个正面的角度描述巴勒斯坦文化，将巴勒斯坦青年树立为榜样，并突出那些不愿选择暴力的儿童形象，而不是以同样的角度去描绘以色列人——甚至是以色列儿童。


But then reality intervened again.	但现实却一如既往地打乱了合作。


A suicide bomber attacked in Israel, and, in retaliation, the Israel Defense Forces took over Ramallah, where the tiny Palestinian Sesame Street studio was located.	在以色列发生了一起自杀式炸弹爆炸，而以军则突袭了巴方制作团队所在的拉马拉作为报复。


Day after day, the talented Palestinian team of animators, puppeteers, designers, cameramen, and producers could not get to work – even as the Israeli team was churning out their own material in a brightly lit, well-funded studio in Tel Aviv.	日复一日，那些才华横溢的巴勒斯坦动画片画家，木偶艺人，设计师，摄影师和制作人都无法工作——而以色列制作方则在特拉维夫宽敞明亮且资金充足的制作室里推出了自己的作品。


Then the IDF occupied the TV station itself and destroyed it, along with the team’s computers and cameras.	以色列国防军随后占领并破坏了电视台，随之遭难的还有巴方团队的电脑和摄像机。


The documentary’s footage of shot-out computer screens and piles of smashed printers and cameras – under graffiti reading “Palestine Never” – makes one despair.	看到那些被子弹洞穿的电脑屏幕，满地的打印机和摄影机残骸——还有涂在墙上的“永远别想建国”标语——任何人都会感到心灰意冷。


Meanwhile, New York was growing impatient, letting the Palestinian team know that their segments were late – and, under what was essentially a military occupation, the Palestinians began to rethink whether this was the right kind of project to which to devote their energies.	与此同时，纽约方面却越来越不耐烦，并催促巴方团队说他们的制作进度已经延误了——而在以军现实的军事占领之下，巴方也开始怀疑这是不是一个值得为此付出如此多精力的项目。


The New York producer overseeing the project, a single mother, was reluctant initially to visit Ramallah – so the Palestinian team’s inability to produce their segments on time was, like so many aspects of the Palestinian experience, hidden behind a barrier of fear, not fully witnessed, and thus not fully comprehended.	负责整个项目的纽约制作人，一个单身母亲，不愿意冒险去拉马拉——因此巴方团队无法按时制作出节目的事实——正如许多类似的巴勒斯坦经历那样——被恐惧所掩盖，不为人知，也不为其他人所理解。


The co-production has ended. But there is a Palestinian Sesame Street and an Israeli Sesame Street, and there are positive Arab-Israeli characters in the Israeli version.	双方在制作方面的合作最终破产，并各自推出了巴勒斯坦版本和以色列版本的《芝麻街》。


And the creators of these programs, together with the filmmakers behind “When Muppets Dream of Peace,” offer important lessons for all of us.	在以色列版本中出现了正面的阿拉伯裔以色列角色。 而这个项目的发起者，同时也是电影《当玩偶期望和平》的摄制者，为我们所有人上了宝贵的��课。


One quote from a Palestinian TV production team member stayed with me: “This is a shotgun wedding,” he explained when he was advocating for a Palestine-only Sesame Street.	我无法忘记其中一位巴勒斯坦制作团队成员所说的话：“这是逼婚，”他说当时自己一直在呼吁制作一个只有巴勒斯坦角色的《芝麻街》，“我们一直想拆伙。


“And we want a divorce.”	”


The Palestinian team is utterly indistinguishable, superficially, from their European or Israeli counterparts: they are hip, young, talented, sophisticated, and more than anything they want to work to create a positive environment for their kids – or at least a psychological respite from the reality of occupation, violence, and war.	乍眼一看，你完全无法将巴方制作人员和其他欧洲和以色列的合作者区分开来：他们一样时髦，年轻，才华横溢，老练，而且比谁都更加愿意用自己的努力来为本地的孩子们创造一个积极正面的成长环境——或者是一个暂时远离占领，暴力和战争的心灵港湾。


But how often does the outside world – even the best-intentioned donors and program creators – reach out to Palestinian civil society on its own terms, without insisting on that “shotgun wedding?”	但外面世界的人们——即使是那些心怀好意的资助者和项目发起人——又与巴勒斯坦市民社会进行过多少接触，而不是坚持一场“逼婚”。


How often are resources invested in Palestinian films, books, newspapers, high schools, dance troupes, teachers, etc. without requiring the recipients to make friendly gestures to Israel?	又有多少投入到巴勒斯坦电影，书籍，报纸，高校，舞蹈团和师资等等的资源，不去要求为以色列树立友好形象作为回报？


Many civil-society elements in the Muslim world have turned their backs on possible partnerships with Israeli counterparts.	事实上，穆斯林社会中的许多市民社会元素都拒绝与以色列方面进行潜在的合作。


One Egyptian actor was boycotted at home for merely appearing in Cannes with an Israeli actress.	一位埃及男演员仅仅因为和一位以色列女演员共同出席嘎纳电影节就在本国遭到非议。


But I am certain that the more intently outsiders invest in Palestinian civil society on its own terms, the less exasperated the Palestinian intelligentsia – and the Muslim world – will become with the often-coerced terms of Palestine's creativity.	因此我确信只要资助者能更加专注于巴勒斯坦市民社会中的某些独有元素，而不是经常将某些条款强加于巴勒斯坦人的创造力之上，那么巴勒斯坦知识界——以及穆斯林社会——将更少被激怒。


A vibrant Palestinian civil society could become more flexible and open toward possible partnerships – including more natural, holistic Israeli-Palestinian joint ventures – thus benefiting the region as a whole.	而一个富有生气的巴勒斯坦市民社会将对潜在的合作——包括更自然也更全面的以巴合作——表现得更为灵活和开放，最终受益的则是整个区域。


The Muppets have taught generations of kids worldwide how to count to ten and share cookies.	这些小玩偶们几十年如一日地教全世界的孩子如何数到10以及和其他人分享饼干。


In the 1970’s in the United States, they taught us about an interracial couple on Sesame Street.	在1970年代的美国，它们为我们展示了一对肤色不同的夫妇。


In South Africa, the creators asked for – and got – a puppet that was an HIV-positive child, since acceptance of such kids was a lesson that local educators told the New York team they needed to teach.	在南非，制作人请求——并最终如愿得到——一个“艾滋病毒检验呈阳性”的小玩偶，因为制作人告诉纽约团队，接受这样的孩子是他们必须教授的一课。


In the Sesame Street of Palestine and Israel, the failure of the joint venture was really a success: the Muppets and their creators have given us another valuable lesson, this time in how – and how not – to help others.	回到在巴勒斯坦和以色列版本的《芝麻街》，其实这场合作的失败已经是某种成功。 因为玩偶们和他们的创造者也给我们上了宝贵的一课，那就是什么行为才是真正帮助对方，什么行为则恰恰相反。


Breivik had fantasies of being a knight fighting the enemies of the West. Merah imagined that he was a jihadi.	布雷维克幻想成为一名奋勇捍卫西方的骑士，默拉���认是一个圣战者，而谁又知道科隆比纳枪击案的凶手们心里是怎么想的呢？


Musharraf’s Ambiguous Legacy	穆沙拉夫尚难以盖棺定论


Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s resignation brings to an end one of the more interesting curiosities of subcontinental politics: for more than four years, Pakistan had a president who was born in India, while India had a Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh) who was born in Pakistan.	巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫辞职，从而结束了南亚次大陆政治中更为有趣、令人好奇的一页。 这也就是，四年多以来，巴基斯坦有一个出生在印度的总统，而印度则有一个出生在巴基斯坦的总理(辛格总理)。


Since the two countries’ separation is now more than six decades old, that anomaly is unlikely to be repeated.	由于两国分裂已经超过六十年时间，这一不同寻常的状况不大可能再会重演。


But it is not the only reason Indians are greeting Musharraf’s exit with mixed feelings.	但是，这并非印度对于穆沙拉夫退出感到五味俱全的唯一的原因。


Musharraf was someone who was easy to hate across the border.	穆沙拉夫很容易遭到两国的憎恨。


He had, after all, risen to the top of the military on the back of the Pakistani army’s Islamist elements, who came into their own (in what had previously been a rather Anglophile, British- and American-trained officer corps) during the decade-long reign of a fundamentalist military ruler, General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq.	毕竟，他仰仗着巴基斯坦军队中的伊斯兰势力掌握了军权。 这些伊斯兰势力在原教旨主义军事统治者齐亚哈克将军长达十年的统治中称雄一时(他们原先则是经过英国和美国培训的亲英美派军官)。


Indeed, though Musharraf displayed an urbane image, enjoyed his Scotch, and admired Turkey, he was not one of the Pakistani secularists so admired by Indian liberals.	确实，尽管穆沙拉夫表现出某种大城市的形象，喜欢喝苏格兰威士忌酒而且崇拜土耳其，但是他并非印度的自由派人士所崇敬的巴基斯坦世俗派人士。


Instead, he cultivated a reputation as an anti-Indian hardliner.	相反，他却营造了一个反印强硬派的名声。


The fact that his family had fled India upon Partition gave him an additional chip on his shoulder: it was widely said that he saw relations with India as a series of opportunities to wreak vengeance for what his family had suffered in the refugee upheavals of 1947.	事实是，他的家族在印巴分治的时候逃离印度，使得他更为仇视印度。 广为流传的说法是，他的家族在1947年难民逃难深受其害，因此，他把对印度的关系视为一系列报复机会。


As Chief of the Army Staff, Musharraf directed the disastrous Kargil invasion of 1999, when Pakistan sent its soldiers surreptitiously across the cease-fire lines to capture strategically vital heights overlooking a key Indian road.	作为军队参谋长，穆沙拉夫在1999年指挥了入侵卡吉尔，结果一败涂地。 当时，巴基斯坦派遣军队秘密穿越停火线，夺取了俯瞰印度一条交通要道的战略至高点。


Musharraf was recorded by Indian intelligence boasting about the action on an open telephone line during a visit to Beijing.	穆沙拉夫访问北京的时候在没有加密的电话线上吹嘘这次军事行动，而印度情报机构则录下了他的电话。


Because the invasion was manifestly illegal and provocative, Pakistan denied that official soldiers were involved, with the result that when they were repulsed, at great cost to both sides, Musharraf refused to accept his own soldiers’ bodies.	由于这次入侵完全是非法和挑衅性的，因此巴基斯坦否认正规军参与其中。 结果，当双方损失惨重、巴基斯坦被击退的时候，穆沙拉夫拒绝认领自己士兵的尸体。


It was a low point in Indo-Pakistan relations, and no one in Delhi was prepared to trust Musharraf ever again.	这是印巴关系史上的最低潮，而且，印度没有人愿意再次信任穆沙拉夫了。


Within months, however, Musharraf had conducted a coup against the hapless Nawaz Sharif, and a year later declared himself president, a title meant to enhance his stature when he visited India for peace talks in July 2001.	但是在几个月内，穆沙拉夫主导了军事政变，推翻了软弱无力的沙里夫总理。 一年以后他自立为总统，目的在于当他在2001年7月访问印度进行和平会谈的时候提升自己的地位。


But Musharraf had come to power as the patron of the jihadi s his army was financing, equipping, and training for their forays into Indian territory, and few in New Delhi thought genuine peace could be made with such a duplicitous man.	但是穆沙拉夫掌权是圣战者的保护人，其军队为这些圣战者提供资助和装备，并且训练他们以便入侵印度领土。 印度几乎没人认为与这样一个狡诈的人可以实现真正的和平。


Then came 9/11, when – under intense pressure from the United States to support American retaliation in Afghanistan or face the consequences – he was forced to disown his protégés.	随后发生了911事件。 美国强烈要求巴基斯坦支持在阿富汗实行报复，否则就会面临后果。


The Taliban, under whose rule Osama bin Laden had found a safe haven, had been created (and, in crucial battles, led) by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).	此时他被迫断绝了与这些被保护人的关系。 巴基斯坦的联合情报部门(ISI)建立了塔利班并且在关键性战役中指挥他们，而本拉登则在塔利班的统治下建立了安全老巢。


Now, Musharraf, in order to preserve his country’s alliance with the world’s sole superpower (and his country’s largest donor), had to betray his own.	现在，为了保持巴基斯坦与世界唯一超级大国(以及该国最大的援助国)的联盟，穆沙拉夫不得不背叛自己人。


For at least two years, though, Musharraf tried to have it both ways, cracking down at America’s behest on the Islamists on Pakistan’s western border with Afghanistan while sponsoring them on the eastern border with India.	但是至少在两年的时间里，穆沙拉夫想要兼得鱼和熊掌。 他一方面按照美国的要求在与阿富汗接壤的西部边境上打击伊斯兰分子，另一方面则在与印度接壤的东部边境上扶植他们。


A Pakistani-sponsored jihadi attack on India’s Parliament in December 2001 nearly provoked all-out war.	2001年12月，巴基斯坦扶植的圣战者袭击印度议会，几乎引发全面战争。


But the double game proved unsustainable: the Islamists were less inclined than their now-ambivalent patron to draw sophistical distinctions between one kind of enemy and another.	但是这一两面手法难以维持。 伊斯兰分子并非如同其现今充满矛盾心理的保护人那样微妙地区分两种敌人。


The result was two assassination attempts against Musharraf in December 2003.	结果，2003年12月穆沙拉夫两次险遭遇刺。


If Musharraf had previously been unwilling to choose sides, the attempts to kill him finally showed him which side he had to be on.	如果穆沙拉夫先前并不愿意确定立场，那么，这些暗杀最终告诉他应该站在哪一边。


From then on, Musharraf seems genuinely to have tried to clamp down on the Frankenstein’s monster that he had sustained as an instrument of Pakistani policy.	从那时以来，穆沙拉夫看起来真心想要打击他所原先作为巴基斯坦政策工具培育的伊斯兰恐怖分子。


For roughly four years, he represented the best that the West and India could hope for in a Pakistani leader – someone with military authority, who seemed convinced that his own survival, and the interests of his state, demanded a clampdown on terrorism.	在将近四年的时间里，他表现优异，正是西方国家和印度所想要的巴基斯坦领导人，也就是拥有军权，相信其自身的生存以及国家利益要求打击恐怖主义。


“I never thought I’d say this,” one senior national security figure in New Delhi said to me, “but Pervez Musharraf…may be India’s best hope for peace with Pakistan.”	印度一位资深国家安全事务官员告诉我说：“我从来都没有想到穆沙拉夫或许会成为印度与巴基斯坦修好的最大的希望”。


It could not last indefinitely.	这无法永久持续。


The first problems arose in the lawless “federally administered tribal areas” (FATA) in western Pakistan.	最初的问题发生在巴基斯坦西部的“联邦治理下的部落地区”。 穆沙拉夫想要不惜代价避免军事行动，以触发部落反叛攻击其军队。


Musharraf, concerned at all costs to avoid any military action that might provoke a tribal rebellion against his forces, tried to buy himself more political space by cutting deals with insurgent leaders in the FATA, signing peace agreements with the very chiefs his army should have been pursuing.	他试图与在那些地区的反叛头领打成协议来为自己赢的更大的政治空间。 他与那些首领签署和平协议，而他的军队正要追杀这些首领。


Meanwhile, internal difficulties worsened.	与此同时，国内困境加剧。


As anti-Musharraf sentiment grew within Pakistan, and repressive measures aimed at the judiciary and the press cost him ever more support among the intelligentsia, his hold on power began to slip.	巴基斯坦反穆沙拉夫的情绪增长，而针对司法系统和报纸的专制措施则让他付出了代价，丧失了知识阶层的支持，他的权力控制开始随之动摇。


His effort to cut a deal with Benazir Bhutto was a final attempt to remain in office through the election of a civilian leader acceptable to the public (and the West).	他企图与贝托夫人打成协议，通过选举一位能够被公众和西方接受的文官领导人来保住权力。


Her assassination by Islamist elements foreclosed that option.	贝托夫人被伊斯兰分子杀害终结了这一选择。


Musharraf’s fraying authority made him less effective and, indeed, less useful: the Taliban re-emerged in strength on Pakistan’s Afghan border, and his own ISI was proved to have been involved in the bombing of India’s embassy in Kabul.	穆沙拉夫日益消退的权势使他政令不通，而且确实也变得用处不大了。 在巴基斯坦与阿富汗接壤的边境地区，塔利班东山再起，而其联合情报部门则被证明参与了轰炸喀布尔的印度使馆。


By the summer of 2008, both the West and India were facing a Pakistan again in the grip of chaos, its border areas in Islamist hands and its ISI out of the control of the elected civilian government.	到了2008年夏天，西方和印度都面临巴基斯坦再一次陷入混乱动荡的局面，其边境地区陷入伊斯兰分子手中，而经选举产生的文官政府则对联合情报部门束手无策。


The prospects of an implosion of effective governmental authority in Pakistan are strong, and the consequences would be dire.	有效的政府权威消亡的可能性很大，而其后果将会十分严重。


But, by the time Musharraf resigned, he had already lost the ability to do anything about it.	但是，当穆沙拉夫辞职的时候，他已经无可奈何花落去了。


Musharraf’s Return?	穆沙拉夫回归？


LAHORE – Pakistan’s former president, Pervez Musharraf, has decided to return to Pakistani politics, if not quite to Pakistan. He announced his decision at London’s National Liberal Club, an institution founded in the nineteenth century by William Gladstone and other stalwarts of Britain’s parliamentary tradition.	拉合尔——


The choice of venue was, of course, steeped in irony. Musharraf did not uphold the Gladstonian tradition while he was in office for almost nine years, from October 1999 to August 2008.	巴基斯坦前总统佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫决定要重返巴基斯坦政坛，尽管尚未回到巴基斯坦。


Indeed, he admitted as much in his speech at the launch of his political party, the All Pakistan Muslim League, from a safe distance of thousands of miles from an increasingly turbulent Pakistan.	他在伦敦的国家自由俱乐部中宣布了这个决定。 国家自由俱乐部是威廉·格莱斯顿和其他英国议会传统的忠实拥护者在19世纪成立的一个机构。


Although Musharraf did not elaborate on his “mistakes,” the reference was obvious: his impulsive decision in March 2007 to fire Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry from the Supreme Court.	当然，这个宣布地点的选择是充满讽刺意味的。 穆沙拉夫在位的9年多时间（1999.


The judge had refused to be directed by the president and the military in deciding important constitutional matters, including Musharraf’s own eligibility to contest the presidency while still in uniform.	实际上，他在成立自己的新政党“巴基斯坦穆斯林全联盟”时的演讲中也承认了这一点。 他宣布成立新政党的地点十分安全，距离愈加动荡的巴基斯坦有着千里之遥。


The second “mistake” came the following November, after Musharraf’s government failed to contain the legal community’s impressive civil-disobedience movement to pressure the government into reinstating Chaudhry. Musharraf, again acting impulsively, placed the country under emergency rule when Chaudhry was brought back by a decision of his own court.	虽然穆沙拉夫并没有在演讲中详细述说他的“错误”，但却明显地提到了一些，比如他在2007年3月鲁莽地决定解雇最高法院的首席大法官乔杜里。


Chaudhry was fired again, a move accompanied this time by a wider shakeup of the already shaken-up judiciary. The government emptied the Supreme Court of relatively independent judges and installed a more “trustworthy” group.	乔杜里拒绝在决定重要宪法问题上被总统及军队牵着鼻子走，其中包括穆沙拉夫身为军人参选总统的合法性问题。


The strategy didn’t work, and the lawyers returned to agitating.	演讲中提到的第二个“错误”发生在同年11月。 那时，穆沙拉夫政府没能遏制法律界令人赞叹的旨在迫使政府为乔杜里复职的公民反抗运动。


Musharraf withdrew the emergency and restored the constitution, but a few days later Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in Rawalpindi after she addressed a large election rally.	穆沙拉夫再次鲁莽地宣布全国进入紧急状态，而当时最高法院的裁决是让乔杜里恢复原职。 这次，穆沙拉夫对原本已经经历人事调整的司法部再次洗牌，于是再次把乔杜里撤职。


Musharraf postponed the elections scheduled for December 2007 until February 2008.	政府掏空了最高法院中相对独立的法官，安插了更“值得信赖的”团体。


Many assumed that Musharraf would follow the lead of his military predecessors, who on several occasions announced elections and a return to democracy, only to postpone the vote when it drew near.	但这一策略并未奏效，律师们又重新造势。 于是，穆沙拉夫撤回了紧急法令，恢复了宪法。


But Musharraf surprised the Pakistani political establishment and held the election, in which the Pakistan Muslim League (the Quaid Group), his political base, was trounced by Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim Group (the Nawaz Group).	但是几天之后，贝布托在拉瓦尔品第对大规模选民的演讲中被暗杀了。 事后，穆沙拉夫把原定于2007年12月举行的大选延迟至20085年2月。


The second Muslim League was headed by Nawaz Sharif, twice Pakistan’s prime minister.	许多人认为穆沙拉夫会走前几届军方领导人的老路，即数次宣布大选重返民主，却在选举将至时推迟大选。


His second tenure ended when Musharraf removed him from office in October 1999 to establish the country’s fourth military regime.	但是穆沙拉夫如期举行大选，这让巴基斯坦政界着实惊讶。


Following the coup, Bhutto and Nawaz fled into exile, and were allowed back into the country only after Musharraf, hoping that their return would help deflect public attention from the lawyers’ protest movement, announced that he would hold elections.	在大选中，穆沙拉夫的政治大本营巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟（领袖派）不敌贝布托的巴基斯坦人民党和巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟（谢里夫派）。


Given the way Musharraf governed the country, it is hard to imagine that he will be able to stage a political comeback.	巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟（谢里夫派）是由纳瓦兹·谢里夫领导的。 谢里夫曾担任两届巴基斯坦总理。


Pakistan these days is a troubled country, politically as well as economically.	1999年10月，穆沙拉夫把谢里夫从第二届任期中赶下了台，成立了巴基斯坦第四界军事政权。 在这次兵变后，贝布托和谢里夫逃亡海外。


But talk of regime change may have prompted Musharraf to re-enter politics.	而后来，穆沙拉夫希望他们的回归能转移公众对律师抗议运动的注意力而宣布举行大选时，他们才得以回归。


Only a politician who has the support of major constituencies can hope to restore political order and economic health, and Musharraf is presenting himself as a candidate whom the military might support.	就穆沙拉夫统治巴基斯坦的方式而言，人们很难想象他会宣布重返政坛。 如今，巴基斯坦是一个陷于困境的国家，无论是在政治层面上还是经济层面上。


Thus, in a long interview with the BBC before launching his new party, Musharraf suggested that Pakistan’s army was the only institution that could save the country from its current woes.	因此，在宣布成立新政党前与英国广播公司（BBC）的一次冗长采访中，穆沙拉夫指出，巴基斯坦的军队是唯一能让巴基斯坦脱离苦海的机构。


“There is a sense of despondency in Pakistan, and the place that the people go to is the military,” he said.	“巴基斯坦弥漫着一股消沉的气息。 而人们该求助的对象是军队”，他说道。


“There’s nobody else to whom they can go.	“除了军队，没人能帮助他们。


In Pakistan, they come to the army headquarters, they come to the army chief, they run there, and they ask them to act.	在巴基斯坦，人们跑向军队总部，跑向军队领导人，请求军队采取行动。


They don’t trust the politicians.”	人们不信任政客。 ”


While there may be some element of truth in this, Musharraf appears not to have learned the lesson of his final year in office.	虽然这番话兴许有些道理，但是穆沙拉夫似乎尚未吸取他最后一年在位的教训。


Then, an energized legal community, supported by a hyperactive media, was able to defy a military government.	那时，激昂的法律界在十分踊跃的媒体支持下，能藐视军方政府。


It is unlikely that most Pakistanis, despite their distrust of Pakistan’s politicians, will be inclined to turn to someone with Musharraf’s history.	尽管巴基斯坦人民不信任政客，但是他们也不可能向穆沙拉夫之流求助。


The army, in fact, recognizes this.	事实上，军方认识到这一点。


It also realizes that Pakistan can be effectively governed only if its leaders have the support of other important constituencies.	它还明白，只有当巴基斯坦的领导者获得其他重要选举基本盘的支持时，巴基斯坦才能被有效治理。


These include the large and growing middle class, which has a strong presence in Punjab’s many large cities – where Nawaz’s Muslim League governs.	这些选举基本盘包括规模日渐增大的中产阶级。 旁遮普省的许多大城市都有着大量中产阶级，这些城市由谢里夫的穆斯林联盟统治。


The muhajir community – the refugees who migrated from India in 1947 – has its own political party, the Muhajir Qaumi Movement, which governs Sindh and its large cities with the help of the People’s Party.	乌尔都人群体——1947年从印度���徙而来的难民——有着自己的政党“全国移民运动”。 这个政党在人民党的帮助下控制着信德省和省内的大城市。


The PPP remains popular in rural Sindh and among the country’s poor and lower middle class.	信德省的农村地区以及巴基斯坦的中下阶层仍旧支持着巴基斯坦人民党。


The Pashtuns have their own party, the National Awami Party, which governs the newly named province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, on the border with Afghanistan.	普什图人也有自己的政党，即人民民族党。 这个政党控制着新命名的与阿富汗接壤的省份开伯尔-巴图克瓦省。


Despite today’s turbulence, it is unlikely that the military will intervene directly and taken over the reins of government, as it has on four occasions in Pakistan’s history.	虽然如今巴基斯坦处于混乱中，但是军方不大可能会像前4次一样直接干预接管政府。


If, however, it is to orchestrate a regime change – which it might attempt to do – it will not likely disregard these groups and their powerbases by imposing their former commander on the political system.	然而，如果军方想要更换政权，那么它将不大可能会无视上述这些团体以及它们的权力基本盘，强行把其前任领袖插入政治体系。


The military, if it is to play a role, will try to find new leaders from among the political establishment.	如果军方想要在更换政权上发挥作用的话，那么它将从政坛中寻找新的政府首脑。


The political stage is too crowded for Musharraf to find a place to stand.	巴基斯坦的政治舞台太拥挤，没有穆沙拉夫的容身之处。


Toward a New Islamic Golden Age	迈向新伊斯兰黄金时代


SHARJAH – The Muslim world’s past contributions to science and education were extraordinary.	沙迦——穆斯林世界过去在科学教育领域所做的贡献是非凡的。


The Islamic “golden age” – during which scholarship and learning flourished across the Muslim world – lasted many centuries, and included the establishment of the world’s first universities.	学术和知识在整个穆斯林世界快速发展的伊斯兰“黄金时代”长达几个世纪，并导致世界首批大学的诞生。


Today, however, Muslim-majority countries lag well behind the rest of the world in terms of education and research.	但今天，穆斯林多数国家在教育和研究方面远远落后于世界其他地区。


This must change if the region is to provide modern jobs and better lives to its booming population and keep up with global development.	该地区要想为其蓬勃发展的人口提供现代就业机会和更好的生活、跟上全球发展就必须改变这样的现状。


As it stands, only one university from the Muslim world – Turkey’s Middle East Technical University – makes the top 100 in an international ranking, and only a dozen or so can be found in the top 400 in various other lists.	按照现在的情况，穆斯林世界只有土耳其中东技术大学一所大学跻身国际排名百强， 仅有十来所大学能够登上其他排行榜的四百强。


While there are no international standardized tests in science and math at the university level, fourth-, eighth-, and tenth-grade students in the Muslim world test below the global average in these subjects, according to the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study and the Program for International Student Assessment.	尽管大学阶段还没有科学及数学领域的国际标准测试，但穆斯林世界的四年级、八年级和十年级学生在上述学科领域的考试成绩低于世界平均分，这是国际数学和科学研究趋势和国际学生评估计划共同的统计结果。


And the gap with students elsewhere is widening.	不仅如此，穆斯林世界与其他国家学生的差距仍在拉大。


Moreover, research output – as measured by publications and citations in international journals, as well as patents – is disproportionately low relative to population and financial capabilities.	此外，国际期刊发表、引述和专利数量显示，穆斯林世界的研究成果相对于其人口和经济能力低得不成比例。 穆斯林世界平均将GDP的约0.


Muslim countries spend, on average, only about 0.5% of their GDP on research and development, compared to the global average of 1.78% of GDP and the OECD average of above 2%.	5%用于研发，而全球均值为1. 78%，经合组织国家均值达到2%以上。


The number of people working in science fields in the Muslim world is also well below the global average.	穆斯林世界就职于科技领域的人口数量远低于世界平均水平。


Eighteen months ago, a nongovernmental, nonpartisan task force of international experts – convened by the Muslim World Science Initiative and the Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology, and coordinated by me – set out to explore the sorry state of science in the Muslim world and determine how universities could help to improve the situation.	18个月前，由穆斯林世界科学项目和马来西亚高科技产业-政府集团出面组织、我本人进行协调的一个非政府、无党派国际专家特别小组开始调查穆斯林世界科技发展的糟糕状况，并确定大学协助改善局面的方法。


A better understanding of the various issues and possible remedies could enable science to flourish again in the Muslim world, with far-reaching benefits for its economies and societies.	更深入理解各种问题和可能的补救措施能使科学在穆斯林世界再度蓬勃发展，并对其经济和社会产生意义深远的影响。


Our review of the state of science at universities in the Muslim world took into account not just budgets and research, but also issues like the status of women in science studies and careers.	我们对穆斯林国家大学科学状况的回顾不仅考虑到预算和研究领域，同时也研究了女性在科研事业中的现状。


Moreover, we conducted a thorough review – the first of its kind – of how science is taught at universities in the Muslim world, including pedagogical methods, textbooks, language of instruction, censorship of “controversial” topics (such as the theory of evolution), and the role of religion in science classes.	此外，我们首次研究了穆斯林世界大学的科技教学手段，包括教学方法、教材、教学语言、“争议问题”审查（比如进化论）以及宗教在科技教学中所起的作用。


In a just-released report, the task force concludes that, though the overall state of science in the Muslim world remains poor, much can be done to improve it effectively and efficiently.	在刚刚发布的一份报告中，特别小组认为尽管穆斯林世界总体科技状况并不尽如人意，但有很多有效措施可以改善这种现状。


The task force offers specific recommendations for academic institutions, national policymaking bodies, and other stakeholders, such as science academies, industry associations, and civil-society organizations.	特别小组对学术机构、国家决策机构和科学院、行业协会及民间社会组织等其他利益相关机构提出了具体建议。


For academic institutions, one major goal should be to build students’ capacity for creative thinking and critical inquiry.	对学术机构而言，主要目标应该是培养学生创造性思维和批判性研究的能力。


To this end, the task force recommends broadening the education of science-focused students to include humanities, social sciences, languages, and communication.	为此，特别小组建议拓展理科学生的学习范围，加入人文科学、社会科学、语言和沟通技巧。


At the same time, it calls for the adoption of internationally tried and true teaching methods, particularly “inquiry-based” and “active-learning” approaches.	与此同时，特别小组呼吁采用被国际教学实践证明有效的教学手段，特别是“探究式学习”和“主动学习”等方法。


Of course, such a shift would require professors to receive training in these methods.	当然，这样的转变需要教授接受培训掌握这些方法。


Professors should also be encouraged to dedicate themselves to writing textbooks and conducting science outreach, not just publishing more papers.	此外应鼓励教授编写教材并开展科普工作，而不仅以发表论文为目标。


This recommendation may be surprising, given the Muslim world’s low research productivity.	鉴于穆斯林世界不尽如人意的研究效率，这项建议可以有些出乎意料。


But the reality is that such efforts will produce more real-world benefits than a single-minded focus on publication, which can inadvertently encourage plagiarism and junk science.	但实际情况是上述举措能比一心一意专注于发表论文创造出更多现实的好处，过于关注论文发表可能会在不经意间为抄袭和垃圾科学创造土壤。


The task force has recommended that national policymaking bodies grant universities more space to innovate (especially in curricula) and evolve (in research programs and collaborations), each in its own way, according to its strengths and weaknesses.	特别小组建议国家决策机构给予高校更多创新（尤其在课程方面）和发展（包括研究项目及合作）空间，允许它们根据自身的优势和弱点找到更适合的发展道路。


And it has called on all institutions to embrace meritocracy and shun gimmicks likes paying for “collaborations” to boost publications.	该小组还呼吁所有机构实行英才管理，避免出钱寻求“合作”提升论文发表率的花招。


A quick rankings boost is never worth the risk of reputational damage in the longer term.	冒着长期声誉受损的危险快速提升排名根本不值得。


These steps require a bottom-up program of change.	上述步骤需要自下而上的变革。


That is why the task force has now put out an open call for universities across the Muslim world to join a voluntary Network of Excellence of Universities for Science (NEXUS).	特别小组因此正公开呼吁所有穆斯林高校自愿加入一项科技高校英才网络（NEXUS）计划。


Overseen by the task force, this self-selected peer group – comprising university administrators and faculty who recognize that change must start from within – will implement the steps that the task force has devised.	在特别小组监管下，这一由认识到变化必须由内部产生的高校管理人员及教师组成的自主选择的同业群体将会忠实执行特别小组已经制定的举措。


The hope is that once the first group of universities’ efforts begin to bear fruit, more institutions will join.	我们希望一旦首批大学的努力初见成效，会有更多的机构选择加入。


The resulting momentum will create pressure for ministries, regulators, and other policymaking bodies – which may be the most resistant to change – to take complementary steps.	由此产生的势头将对（可能最不愿接受改变的）政府部门、监管机构和其他决策机构施压采取补救行动。


Universities are hubs of research, critical thinking, and lively debate, where the next generation is not only exposed to established facts and theories, but also learns to dissect ideas, pinpoint flaws, and help enrich and expand our knowledge base.	大学是研究、批判性思维、激烈辩论的核心枢纽，下一代不仅在此学习既成的事实和理论，而且还要学会剖析思想、找出破绽，并协助丰富和拓展我们的知识基础。


At a time when the Muslim world is facing unprecedented challenges, the importance of creating a healthy academic environment cannot be overstated.	在穆斯林世界面临前所未有的挑战之际，创造健康的学术环境的确极其重要。


Rebuilding the Muslim House of Wisdom	重建穆斯林智慧之家


GUILDFORD – Muslim governments know that economic growth, military power, and national security benefit greatly from technological advances.	吉尔福德——穆斯林政府知道经济增长、军事实力和国家安全利益在很大程度上受益于技术进步。


Many of them have sharply increased funding for science and education in recent years.	很多穆斯林政府近年来大幅增加了科学和教育投入。


And yet, in the view of many – especially in the West – the Muslim world still seems to prefer to remain disengaged from modern science.	但在很多人、尤其是西方人看来，穆斯林世界似乎仍然更愿意与现代科学脱钩。


These skeptics are not entirely wrong.	上述怀疑并非完全错误。


Muslim-majority countries spend, on average, less than 0.5% of their GDP on research and development, compared with five times that in the advanced economies.	多数穆斯林国家平均将GDP的0. 5%应用于研发，而发达国家则为穆斯林的5倍。


They also have fewer than ten scientists, engineers, and technicians per thousand residents, compared to the global average of 40 – and 140 in the developed world.	此外他们每千居民中科学家、工程师和技术人员的数量少于10人，全球均值为40人——发达国家更是高达140人。


And even these figures tend to understate the problem, which is less about spending money or employing researchers than about the basic quality of the science being produced.	而且即便这些数据也往往无法对问题予以充分的反应，因为与其说这关系到花钱或雇用研究人员还不如说关系到科学的基本质量。


To be sure, one should not be overly hasty in singling out Muslim countries for criticism; even in the supposedly “enlightened” West, an alarmingly high proportion of the population regards science with suspicion or fear.	可以肯定，人们不应草率地对穆斯林国家横加指责； 即便在所谓“开明”的西方，一样有很大比例的民众对科学持怀疑或恐惧态度。


And yet, in many parts of the Muslim world, science faces a unique challenge; it is seen as a secular – if not atheist – Western construct.	但科学在穆斯林世界很多地方面临的挑战十分独特； 它被视为世俗——甚至无神论——的西方产物。


Too many Muslims have forgotten – or never learned about – the brilliant scientific contributions made by Islamic scholars a thousand years ago.	太多穆斯林已经忘记——或者根本不知道——伊斯兰学者一千年前取得的辉煌的科学成就。


They do not regard modern science as indifferent or neutral with respect to Islamic teaching.	他们不认为现代科学对伊斯兰教义的影响无关紧要或者中性。


Indeed, some prominent Islamic writers have even argued that scientific disciplines such as cosmology actually undermine the Islamic belief system.	事实上，某些著名伊斯兰作家甚至提出宇宙学等学科实际破坏了伊斯兰教的信仰体系。


According to the Muslim philosopher Osman Bakar, science comes under attack on the grounds that it “seeks to explain natural phenomena without recourse to spiritual or metaphysical causes, but rather in terms of natural or material causes alone.”	按穆斯林哲学家奥斯曼·巴卡尔的话讲，科学受到攻击的理由是“它试图脱离精神或者形而上学的原因、单纯以自然或物质因素来解释自然现象。 ”


Bakar is of course entirely correct.	巴卡尔当然完全正确。


Seeking to explain natural phenomena without recourse to metaphysics is exactly what science is about.	试图不靠形而上学来解释自然现象恰恰是科学的目标。


But it is difficult to think of a better defense of it than the one offered almost exactly 1,000 years ago by the 11th-century Persian Muslim polymath Abu Rayhan al-Birūni.	但没有比近1000年前11世纪波斯穆斯林博学者比鲁尼提出的更好的解释理由。


“It is knowledge, in general, which is pursued solely by man, and which is pursued for the sake of knowledge itself, because its acquisition is truly delightful, and is unlike the pleasures desirable from other pursuits,” al-Birūni wrote.	比鲁尼写道，“一般而言这就是知识，人类追求知识只是因为知识本身的缘故，因为获得知识的确令人愉悦，而且与其他追求所带来的快感不同。


“For the good cannot be brought forth, and evil cannot be avoided, except by knowledge.”	”“因为只有知识才能扬善避恶。 ”


Fortunately, a growing number of Muslims today would agree.	幸运的是，如今越来越多的穆斯林会赞同这种观点。


And, given the tension and polarization between the Islamic world and the West, it is not surprising that many feel indignant when accused of being culturally or intellectually unequipped for competitiveness in science and technology.	而且鉴于伊斯兰世界和西方国家间的紧张和两极分化，在文化和智力方面缺乏科技竞争力的指责令很多人义愤填膺也不足为怪。


Indeed, that is why governments across the Muslim world are increasing their R&D budgets sharply.	事实上，这揭示了穆斯林各国政府大幅增加其研发预算的理由。


But throwing money at the problem is no panacea.	但砸钱绝非是解决问题的灵丹妙药。


Scientists do require adequate financing, of course, but competing globally requires more than just the latest shiny equipment.	当然，科学家的确需要足够的资金，但全球竞争需要的绝不仅仅是最新最炫的装备。


The entire infrastructure of the research environment needs to be addressed.	研究环境的整个基础设施问题亟需解决。


That means not only ensuring that laboratory technicians understand how to use and maintain the equipment, but also – and far more important – nurturing the intellectual freedom, skepticism, and courage to ask heterodox questions on which scientific progress depends.	这意味着不仅要确保实验室技术人员知道如何使用和维护设备，而且——更重要的是——要培养学术自由、敢于怀疑并提出科技进步所必需的异端问题的勇���。


If the Muslim world is to become a center of innovation again, it is useful to recall the Islamic “golden age” that stretched from the eighth century well into the fifteenth.	穆斯林世界要想再次成为创新中心，回顾从八世纪一直延续到十五世纪的伊斯兰“黄金时代”无疑十分有益。


For example, the year 2021 will mark a millennium since the publication of Ibn al-Haytham’s Book of Optics, one of the most important texts in the history of science.	比方说，2021年将迎来科学史上最重要的文献之一——伊本·阿尔·海赛姆的《光学之书》出版千年纪念日。


Written more than 600 years before the birth of Isaac Newton, al-Haytham’s work is widely regarded as one of the earliest examples of the modern scientific method.	写于牛顿诞生600多年前，海赛姆的著作被广泛视为现代科学方法最早期的例子。


Among the most famous of this era’s intellectual epicenters was Baghdad’s House of Wisdom, at the time the largest repository of books in the world.	当今时代最著名的知识中心之一是巴格达的智慧之家，也是当时世界最大的图书信息库。


Historians may bicker over whether such an academy truly existed and what function it served; but such arguments are less relevant than the symbolic power it still holds in the Islamic world.	历史学家可能会就该学院存在与否及所起作用争论不休； 但它在伊斯兰世界依然具备的象征意义远比这样的争论更加重要。


When Gulf state leaders talk about their multi-billion-dollar visions of creating a new House of Wisdom, they are not concerned about whether the original was just a modest library that a caliph inherited from his father.	当海湾国家领导人商讨投入数十亿美元重建智慧之家时，原本的智慧之家是否不过是某位哈里发从父辈那里继承的一间小图书馆在他们看来并不重要。


They want to reanimate the spirit of free inquiry that has been lost in Islamic culture and that urgently needs to be recovered.	他们想要重塑自由探索精神，这种精神在伊斯兰文化中已经失落得太久，急需重新恢复。


To achieve that, daunting challenges remain to be overcome.	需要克服艰巨的挑战才能实现这一目标。


Many countries devote an unusually large share of research funding toward military technology, a phenomenon driven more by geopolitics and the unfolding tragedies in the Middle East than by a thirst for pure knowledge.	很多国家将研究资金的绝大部分投入军事技术，驱动这种现象的与其说是对知识的单纯渴求还不如说是中东不断上演的悲剧和地缘政治因素。


The brightest young scientists and engineers in Syria have more pressing matters on their minds than basic research and innovation.	叙利亚最聪明的年轻科学家和工程师脑子里有比基础研究创新更急迫的问题值得关注。


And few in the Arab world are likely to view advances in Iranian nuclear technology with the same equanimity as developments in Malaysia’s software industry.	阿拉伯世界恐怕没多少人能在面对伊朗核技术进步时像马来西亚软件产业发展一样安之若素。


But it is nonetheless important to recognize how much Muslim countries could contribute to humankind by nurturing once again the spirit of curiosity that drives scientific inquiry – whether to marvel at divine creation or just to try to understand why things are the way they are.	但认识到穆斯林国家通过重新培育推动科学探索的好奇精神能为人类做出多大贡献依然非常重要——无论研究的目的是为了解事物的规律还是仅仅为了惊叹神的创造。


Burma to Myanmar and Back?	缅甸：Burma 还是Myanmar？


NEW DELHI – In ways big and small, Asia is still living with the tainted legacy of imperialism.	发自新德里——在大大小小的各个方面上，亚洲仍然生活在帝国主义残留阴影之下。


Consider the debate now underway in Myanmar – or Burma to some.	比如说如今在缅甸（Myanmar）——对有些人来说是Burma——发生的争论。


Because the imperial tongue found it difficult to pronounce “Myanmar,” the country’s no-nonsense British masters renamed it Burma (redrawing its borders as well for good measure).	当年那些讲究实效的英国殖民者觉得“Myanmar”的发音太困难，于是就把缅甸的名字改为“Burma”（同时为了方便测量，还重新划定了缅甸的边界）。


The new name stuck until the military regime that ruled the country for decades restored the original one in 1989.	自那以后缅甸一直沿用Burma这个新名字直至1989年，统治了几十年的军政府开始启用该国过去的旧名。


Ironically, however, the newly empowered democratic opposition would like to bring back the name Burma, viewing “Myanmar” as emblematic of the dictatorship that they wish to leave behind.	然而讽刺地是，刚掌权的民主反对派却想恢复Burma这个名字，因为他们视Myanmar这一名字为独裁的象征——而这正是他们想摒弃的东西。


But the past can never be truly erased.	但是过去的一切永远无法被真正抹去。


Not even Mao Zedong, with the fury unleashed during China’s Cultural Revolution, could make the “Four Olds” (old customs, old culture, old habits, and old ideas) vanish.	即使是毛泽东本人及其在中国文化大革命时期释放的狂潮也不能使“四旧”（旧风俗、旧文化、旧习惯、旧思想）完全消失。


And whether one uses “Yangon” or “Rangoon” to identify Myanmar/Burma’s capital, the place still remains what the British travel writer Norman Lewis described as “imperial and rectilinear…built by a people who refused compromise with the East.”	无论人们用“Yangon”还是“Rangoon”来称呼缅甸的首都仰光，这个地方仍然如英国旅行作家诺曼·路易斯（Norman Lewis）所描述的那样是一个“由一群不愿向东方妥协的人民所建造的……自顾自发展的帝国”。


The British-built Rangoon was, of course, the Victorian colonizer’s response to what Lewis called the “unsubstantial glories of Mandalay.”	当然，英国人修建的仰光正是维多利亚时代殖民者对路易斯所谓“曼德勒的虚无荣耀”的回应。


As he put it, “These massive columns now rise with shabby dignity from the tangle of scavenging dogs and sprawling, ragged bodies at their base.”	正如他所说:“从食腐野狗和遍地尸体凌乱的混沌中，这些巨大的圆柱与残破的尊严一并升腾了起来。


With Myanmar/Burma now the “in” destination for the world’s hot-money investors, the imperial decrepitude that Lewis described will doubtless soon be transformed, the archaic charm of a fading past demolished for the sake of modern commerce.	由于现在缅甸已经成为了国际热钱投资者的目的地，这个路易斯笔下的衰落帝国无疑很快会发生转变。 出于对现代商业利益的追逐，已逝历史的古老魅力被破坏了。


This tranquil land of timeless faith, over which Buddha’s benign statues preside – a land of rivers, deep forests, and blood-red rubies – is now in play for international investors.	这片有着永恒信念的平静土地——佛陀的雕像矗立于此，它拥有河流，深林和血红色的红宝石——现在已经为国际投资者敞开了大门。


For the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who suffered two decades of incarceration and house arrest, the country must aspire to something beyond getting rich if it is truly to overcome the decades of military misrule: a transforming, revolutionary idea.	对遭受了20多年监禁和软禁的诺贝尔奖得主昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)来说，如果缅甸要真正摆脱这几十年的军事暴政，它就必须追求比致富更崇高的目标——即改革的、革命的思想。


That idea, of course, is democracy, which is something very new to Myanmar/Burma, for the British practiced little of it when they ruled, as George Orwell’s Burmese Days makes clear.	这种思想无疑就是对缅甸来说很陌生的民主——因为英国在统治缅甸的时候并没有推行多少民主政策。 这在乔治·奥威尔（George Orwell）的《缅甸岁月》中已经描述得很清楚了。


Since regaining her freedom, Suu Kyi has liberated her fellow citizens from fear through the power of this idea and her own example.	在重获自由后，昂山素季凭借这种思想以及个人榜样的号召力把她的同胞们从恐惧中解放了出来。


“It is not power that corrupts” she memorably noted, “but fear.	她明确地表明“并不是权力令人堕落，而是恐惧。


Fear of losing power corrupts those who wield it, and fear of the scourge of power corrupts those who are subject to it.”	害怕失去权力的恐惧让那些行使权力的人堕落，害怕被权力鞭笞的恐惧令那些受权力支配的人堕落。


On the strength of that ennobling idea, Myanmar/Burma has embraced democratic reform and rid itself of diplomatic and economic isolation.	”基于对民主这一崇高理念的信奉，缅甸欣然接受了民主改革并摆脱了外交及经济孤立。


President Thein Sein’s government has, by its release of Suu Kyi and embrace of a democratic transition, transformed the country’s image.	登盛政府通过释放昂山素季（Suu Kyi）以及接受民主改革改变了这个国家的形象。


Rapprochement with the iconic Suu Kyi, like that of South Africa’s apartheid-era rulers with Nelson Mandela, was the core decision.	与被人民崇拜的昂山素季和睦相处，就像南非种族隔离时期的统治者与纳尔逊·曼德拉（Nelson Mandela）之间的关系，是最重要的决定。


But what has surprised many observers is the pace of change.	但令许多观察员感到惊奇的是缅甸改变的速度。


For example, the recent ceasefire between the government and Karen rebels exemplifies progress that was simply unthinkable only one year ago.	比如，最近政府与卡伦族反政府武装的停火协定就显示出了仅仅一年前还无法想像的进步。


If anything, the latest developments vindicate India’s long-held policy of engaging with Myanmar, a country of major strategic and economic importance to it in terms of trade, transport, energy, and security.	如果有什么区别的话，最新的进展证明了印度长期以来与缅甸建立友好关系的政策是正确的，因为缅甸是一个在贸易、运输、能源及国防上对印度来说都具有战略及经济重要性的国家。


Engagement is the way to establish vital links between Myanmar and South and East Asia.	建交是要在缅甸和东南亚之间建立重要联系的关键。


Indeed, the resumption of diplomatic relations with the United States, and the suspension of a US investment ban, indicate that transformation has already taken place.	的确，与美国恢复外交关系以及美国对缅甸投资禁令的暂缓都表明改革已经发生了。


It is now Japan, however, that is doing the heavy lifting of modernizing Myanmar’s economy.	然而现在却是日本在承担着缅甸经济现代化这一艰难任务。


Japan is deploying vast government aid and private-sector engagement reminiscent of its investments in China at the height of Japanese global economic power in the 1980’s.	日本正在部署大量的政府资助以及私人部门的参与此事，令人回想起20世纪80年代处于全球经济力量顶峰期的日本对中国的投资。


Japan appears to be acting not only for commercial reasons, but also according to its strategic interests.	日本这么做似乎不仅仅是出于商业目的，也符合其战略利益。


The Japanese, like Sein, want to see Myanmar shift its diplomatic orientation away from China.	日本人像登盛一样，想让缅甸的外交方针从中国向别的国家转移。


Many Japanese, whose forebears ravaged the country in World War II, now profess a romantic sentimentality toward Myanmar.	许多日本人——二战时其先辈曾掠夺过这个国家——如今都对缅甸表现出某种浪漫主义情怀。


Yohei Sasakawa of the Nippon Foundation remembers eating rice shipped from the country in the lean years after the war in Japan.	日本基金会的笹川阳平回忆起战后艰苦时期曾吃到过的缅甸大米。


“We are really late,” he says, “in repaying our obligation” for “the kindness of Myanmar.”	他说：“在报答缅甸恩惠这方面我们实在是太迟了。 ”


Here India has been slow to join the struggle for influence.	而印度则在争取对缅甸的影响力这方面反应迟缓。


Its prime minister has visited the country, but without a clear plan of engagement, even though developing western Myanmar would boost the economy of India’s border region.	���国总理访问过缅甸，但并没有明确表示要与其发展经济关系——即使发展缅甸西部可以促进印度边境地区的经济。


These opportunities exist because Thein’s government has been deliberately distancing itself from China, long the military regime’s patron and protector.	这些与缅甸建交的机会之所以存在，是因为登盛政府一直故意疏远中国——它是军政府长时期以来的赞助人及保护者。


The sense among ordinary Burmese that the Chinese were looting the country’s resources has led to an anti-China backlash, including problems with a copper mine in Monywa and the cancellation last year of the Myitsone hydroelectric dam.	普通的缅甸人持有这样一种观念——即中国过去一直在抢劫本国的资源，这种观念引发了强烈的反华回应，包括望濑县铜矿及去年叫停密松水电站大坝项目等问题。


John Pang, the Chief Executive of CARI, a research organization based in Malaysia, says that today’s transitional Myanmar/Burma is “a game the Chinese gave away.”	位于马来西亚的研究组织CARI的董事长彭润年（John Pang）所说，今天处于过渡期的缅甸是“中国出局不玩的一个游戏”。


Their loss is Myanmar/Burma’s – and South Asia’s – gain, regardless of what Thein or his democratically chosen successors choose to call their country.	而中国人的损失就是缅甸及南亚的所得，无论登盛或在其之后民主选举出来的后继者选择如何称呼自己的国家。


My Body, My Capital?	我的身体，我的资产？


LONDON -- In the 1960’s, feminists coined the slogan, “Our bodies, our selves.”	伦敦—在20世纪60年代，女权主义者提出了这样的口号，“我们的身体，我们的自我” 。


But that liberating sentiment has recently undergone an ironic twist.	但是，这个妇女解放观点在最近经受了一个具有讽刺性的纠结。


As an anonymous American woman, justifying her decision to undergo cosmetic surgery, put it, “All we have in life is ourselves, and what we can put out there every day for the world to see… Me is all I got.”	正如一位不知名的美国妇女为使其进行整容手术的决定合理化时所说的那样，“我们在生命中拥有的唯一的东西就是我们自己，我们每天能展现给这个世界看到的是…我就是我的一切。 ”


The French commentator Hervé Juvin extolled this new attitude towards the body in his 2005 surprise bestseller, L’avènement du corps (The Coming of the Body) .	法国评论员赫尔·加文（Hervé Juvin）在他2005年的黑马作品《身体的起源》中赞扬了这种新态度。


Plastic surgery, the implantation of biochips, piercings – all emblazon the belief that our bodies are our unique property.	整容手术，生物芯片植入，穿耳——所有这些都颂扬着我们的身体是我们独特的财产这样一种观念。


At the same time, Juvin asserts, because everyone has a body, property has suddenly become democratized.	同时，加文声称，因为每个人都有身体，所以财产突然变得民主化了。


We appear to live in a time that has witnessed the absolute failure of the grand Enlightenment dreams of linear progress, universal peace, and equality between rich and poor.	我们似乎生活在一个见证了启蒙运动的直线进步、世界和平以及富人和穷人之间平等的梦想彻底破灭的时代。


Together with widespread hostility to organized religion, manifested in such hugely popular books as Richard Dawkins’s The God Delusion , disappointment with social ideals means that we turn inward.	与对有组织宗教的广泛的敌意——这种敌意表现在像理查德·道金斯（Richard Dawkins）的《上帝的错觉》这样极受欢迎的作品中——一起，对社会理想的失望意味着我们转向内在的东西。


In the absence of a belief in eternal life, everything becomes invested in this life, this body.	由于缺乏对永生的信仰，所有的东西都变成了应该被用于今生，这个身体。


Long life is our desire, eternal youth our supposed right, and the myth of the body without origin or limits our new religion.	长寿是我们的希望，永葆青春是我们假象的权利，身体没有起源或限制的神话是我们的新信仰。


That might be why governments are so widely seen to have a positive duty to promote stem cell research and other forms of medical progress.	这可能是为什么能经常看到政府积极的推进干细胞研究以及其他形式的医学进步的原因。


Biotechnology industries flourish, with state sanction and support, because they add extra value to the body, the object of supreme worth to us.	生物技术工业在国家的允许和支持下蓬勃发展，因为它们为作为我们终极价值对象的身体增加了附加的价值。


Indeed, the infinite renewal of the body isn’t confined to superficial repairs through cosmetic surgery.	确实，对身体无限的更新并不局限于通过整容手术进行的表面的修补。


External substitutes for organic structures can be surgically implanted, breaking down the barrier between the body and the outside world.	器官结构的外部代替品可以通过外科手术进行移植，这突破了身体和外部世界之间的界限。


At the same time, tissue removed from the body enters into commerce and trade as a commodity like any other, in the form of stem cell lines, human eggs, and other “products.”	同时，从人体取出的组织以干细胞群、卵子和其他“产品”的形式像普通的商品那样进入商业领域进行买卖。


The American law professor James Boyle believes that we can grasp the way in which the body has become an object of trade by likening it to the historical process of enclosure.	美国法学教授詹姆士·博伊尔认为，我们可以通过与历史上的圈地运动相类比的方式，来掌握身体成为买卖对象的方式。


In eighteenth-century Britain, land, which was previously a public resource, was “enclosed” by private owners.	在18世纪的英国，原先是公共资源的土地被私人所有者“圈”起来了。


Freed of feudal-style legal restrictions on transfer of ownership and of traditional rights held by commoners who used communal land to pasture their animals, landholdings could now be sold to raise capital, which helped to finance the industrial revolution.	从封建式的对所有权转让的法律限制以及使用公共土地来放养家畜的土地共有人所有的传统权利中解放出来，土地所有权现在可以被卖掉用来筹集资金，这有助于为工业革命提供资金。


In modern biotechnology, Boyle thinks, things previously outside the market-once thought to be impossible to commodify-are becoming routinely privatized.	博伊尔认为，在现代生物科技中， 从前不进行买卖的东西——曾经被认为不可能商品化的东西——正在被例行公事地私有化。


One in five human genes is now patented, even though the human genome might be thought to be our common heritage.	五个人类基因中就有一个被申请专利，即使人类基因组被认为是我们共同的遗产。


And although Boyle doesn’t mention this latest development, umbilical cord blood, taken in the final stage of labor, is now banked by profit-making firms as a potential – though unlikely – source of stem cells for the baby.	虽然博伊尔没有提到一个最新的发展，但是，在分娩的最后阶段收集的脐带血现在被储存在营利性的公司作为潜在的——虽然不太可能实现——婴儿干细胞来源。


In biomedicine, a series of legal cases have generated powerful momentum toward the transfer of rights over the body and its component parts from the individual “owner” to corporations and research institutions.	在生物医学中，一系列案例已经产生了强大的将身体及其组成部分的权利从个人“所有者”转移到公司或研究机构的动力。


So the body has entered the market, becoming capital, just as land did, though not everyone benefits, any more than the dispossessed commoners grew wealthy during the agricultural enclosures.	所以，身体已经进入了市场，像土地那样成为资本，虽然不是每个人都从中收益，这些益处也并不比从土地上被驱逐的农民在农业圈地运动过程中致富要多些。


Most people are shocked when they learn that one-fifth of the human genome has been patented, mostly by private firms.	当知道五分之一的人类基因组被大部分是私营公司的申请者申请了专利时，许多人感到震惊。


But why be so surprised?	但是，为什么要这么吃惊呢？


After all, female bodies have been subject to various forms of property-holding over many centuries and in many societies.	毕竟，女性身体在多个世纪里，在许多国家，都是受各种财产所有形式支配的。


Women’s bodies are used to sell everything from cars to pop music, of course.	当然，女人的身体被用来销售从汽车到流行音乐的所有东西。


But female tissue has been objectified and commodified in much more profound ways, in legal systems from Athens onwards.	但是，从雅典之后的法律体系开始，女性的身体组织就被以很深刻的方式物化和商品化了。


While men were also made into objects of ownership and trade, as slaves, in general women were much more likely to be treated as commodities in non-slave-owning systems.	虽然，男人也曾被作为奴隶成为所有权和买卖的对象，但是，大体上，即使在不存在奴隶制的社会里，女人也更可能被看作是商品。


Once a woman had given her initial consent to the marriage “contract,” she had no right to retract her consent to sexual relations – ever.	一旦女人已经同意了最初的婚姻“合同”，她就没有权利从性关系中收回其同意——从来都是如此。


There are clear parallels between that situation and the way in which the common law has offered little redress to patients who have tried to claim property rights in tissue taken from them, or to activists seeking to limit the powers of Big Biotech over human genetic patents.	这种情形和习惯法为那些对从其身体上取下的组织主张所有权的病人或者寻求限制生物技术巨头的人类基因专利的行动主义者提供的可怜的法律救济之间，存在着明显的相似性。


All bodies are assumed to be “open access” now, just as women’s have always been.	现在，所有的身体都被认为可以“公开取得”，就像一直以来女人的身体那样。


But the assault on freedom is perceived as such only when it begins to apply to men.	但是，对自由的攻击只有在当它开始实用于男人的时候才被认识到。


It took a long time for people to notice that women’s eggs were required in large quantities for stem cell technologies: a phenomenon I call “the lady vanishes.”	人们用了很长的时间才注意到在干细胞技术中需要大量的卵子：我称之为“女性不见了”现象。


The stem cell debates often seem to be premised on the assumption that only the status of the embryo matters.	干细胞争论通常似乎是以只有胚胎才重要这样的假设为前提的。


Many people are still unaware that women’s eggs are a crucial part of “therapeutic cloning.”	许多人还没有意识到卵子是“治疗性克隆”的关键部分。


By contrast, genetic patenting, which affects both sexes, has (rightly) generated a huge scholarly literature and a very vigorous popular debate.	与此对照，影响了男女两个性别的基因专利申请，已经（正当地）导致产生许多学术研究论文和激烈的大众辩论。


Just a coincidence?	这难道仅仅是巧合？


The new enclosures of the genetic commons or of body tissue threaten to extend the objectification and commodification of the body to both sexes.	对共有基因或身体组织的圈地行为有将身体的物化和商品化扩大到男女两个性别的的危险。


Everyone has a female body now, or, more properly, a feminized body.	现在，每个人都有一个女性身体，或者更确切地说，一个女性化的身体。


Rather than holding an investment in our bodies, we’re all at risk of becoming capital: my body, but somebody else’s capital.	不是在我们身体上拥有投资，而是我们都冒着成为资产的风险：我的身体，但是是其他某人的资产。


My Outlook for 2009	我对2009年的展望


DAVOS – The future of the global economy will depend greatly on whether President Barack Obama launches a comprehensive and coherent set of measures, and on how successfully he carries them out.	达沃斯--全球经济的未来将会在很大程度上取决于奥巴马总统是否能够实施全面和一贯的一整套措施，以及他在多大程度能够成功地落实这些措施。


How the Chinese, Europeans, and other major players respond will be almost as important.	中国、欧洲以及其他主要国家如果应对也将会同样重要。


If there is good international cooperation, the world economy may start climbing out of a deep hole by the end of 2009.	如果国际合作良好，那么世界经济可能会在2009年年底慢慢走出低谷。


If not, we will face a much longer period of economic and political disorder and decline.	否则我们将会面临一个非常漫长的经济和政治混乱和衰退时期。


There is no way to reestablish economic equilibrium in one fell swoop.	我们无法一蹴而就地重新建立经济均衡。


Instead,  the economy must first be pumped full of money to make up for the collapse of credit; then, when credit begins to flow again, the liquidity must be drained from the system almost as fast as it was injected.	相反，我们首先要向经济体内注入充足的资金来弥补信贷的崩溃。 随后，当信贷开始再次流动的时候，我们必须把流动资金从经济体系中抽出去，这要像当初注入资金时一样快。


This second operation will be both politically and technically more difficult than the first: it is much easier to give money away than to take it back.	第二步行动在政治上和技术上都要比第一步行动困难得多，这是因为把钱给出去总是比把钱收回来容易得多。


It is all the more important that stimulus packages be channeled into relatively productive investments.	因此，经济刺激计划应该导向相对高产出率的投资就更为重要了。


The bailout of the motor industry ought to be the exception, not the rule.	挽救美国的汽车产业应该只是一个例外，而不能成为定规。


The Dollar	美元


The effort to pump the American economy full of money will run into difficulties on two fronts: the exchange rate and interest rates.	向美国经济注入大量资金将会在汇率和利率两方面遇到困难。


The dollar came under pressure early in the current financial crisis, but staged a strong recovery as the crisis worsened.	美元在当前金融危机的初始面临压力，但是随着危机的恶化反而出现了强劲复苏。


The dollar’s strength in the latter part of 2008 was due not to an increased desire to hold dollars but to increased difficulties in borrowing them.	美元在2008年下半年的强势并不是由于人们更多地想要持有美元，而是因为借美元变得更为困难。


European and other international banks had acquired a lot of dollar-denominated assets which they habitually funded in the interbank market; as the market dried up, they were forced to buy dollars.	欧洲和其他国际性银行通过在银行间市场提供资金而持有大量以美元计价的资产。 当市场萎缩的时候，它们被迫购买美元。


At the same time, periphery countries held a lot of dollar-denominated obligations which they had to repay when they could not roll them over.	与此同时，周边国家持有大量以美元计价的债务，当它们无法发行新的债券以偿付这些债务时，它们就不得不偿还这些债务。


Russia and East European countries on the periphery of the euro were tied much more to the euro; but when the Russian market collapsed, the effect on the dollar was the same, because the Russian central bank had overbought euros and had to sell them to defend the ruble.	处于欧元区周边的俄罗斯和东欧国家与欧元的联系更为密切。 但是，当俄罗斯市场崩溃的时候，对美元的影响是一样的，因为俄罗斯中央银行购买了大量欧元，现在他们不得不抛售这些欧元来维护卢布。


The trend was temporarily reversed at the end of 2008 when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to practically zero and embarked on quantitative easing.	这种趋势在2008年年底出现了暂时的逆转，因为美联储在利率降到了实际上零的水平同时开始实施定量宽松的货币政策。


The euro staged an explosive rally, but the rally was short lived because the eurozone developed its own internal difficulties.	欧元出现了急剧的止跌回升，但是这种回升是短暂的，因为欧元区的内部出现了困难。


Widespread riots in Greece drew attention to the plight of the Southern Tier countries— Spain, Italy and Greece— and of Ireland.	希腊骚乱活动的蔓延使人们注意到了南欧国家——西班牙、意大利和希腊——以及爱尔兰所面临的困境。


CDS rates for these countries rose, their credit ratings were lowered and the yield spreads on their government bonds versus Germany widened to an alarming extent.	这些国家的可转让存单利率出现上升，信用评级被调低，而它们的国债与德国国债的收益差扩大到了令人惊讶的地步。


The euro headed lower right from the beginning of 2009 and it was even outpaced by sterling.	欧元从2009年初起掉头向下，而英镑的跌幅甚至更大。


Going forward the fact that Germany and the European Central Bank hold a different view of the problem confronting the global economy from the rest of the world is liable to cause wide swings in exchange rates and hinder the recovery.	鉴于德国和欧洲中央银行对全球经济当前所面临的问题抱有不同的看法，世界其他货币的汇率很有可能会出现大幅波动并且使经济的复苏被放缓。


The ECB operates under asymmetric guidelines: it is constitutionally obliged to be concerned only with maintaining price stability, not full employment; Germany still lives with the memory of the Weimar Republic’s runaway inflation, which served as a prelude to the Nazi regime.	欧洲中央银行的指导方针是不平衡的：它在法律上只需要关心维持价格的稳定，而非完全就业； 德国现在还对魏玛共和国时期最终导致纳粹上台的失控的通货膨胀记忆犹新。


Both considerations militate against fiscal irresponsibility and unlimited money creation.	这两点顾忌阻止了财政上的不负责以及无限制的货币供应。


This should favor the euro as a store of value, but the internal tensions within Europe work in the opposite direction.	这对于欧元作为一种价值储存手段有利，但是欧元区内部的紧张却起着相反的作用。


The fact that there is no Europe-wide mechanism for protecting the banking system and each country has to act on its own raises doubts about their ability to do so.	欧洲并没有一个保护银行系统的统一机制，各国必须自己想办法解决问题的事实使人们对它们是否有能力做到这一点表示担心。


Is Ireland’s credit good enough?	爱尔兰的信用足够好吗？


And can the ECB accept the government debt of Greece as collateral beyond certain limits?	欧洲中央银行是否能超越某些限定为希腊的国债提供担保？


The foundations of the Maastricht Treaty are shaking—not to mention the difficulties that the United Kingdom and Switzerland are facing in protecting their overgrown banks.	《马斯特里赫特条约》的基础正在动摇，更别提英国和瑞士在保护它们畸形发展的银行方面所面临的困难了。


As national regulators seek to protect their own banks, they may hurt the banking systems of other countries.	当国家的监管者试图保护他们自己的银行时，他们可能会伤害其他国家的银行系统。


For instance, Austrian and Italian banks are heavily exposed in Eastern Europe; the Royal Bank of Scotland which is now majority owned by the British government does the bulk of its business abroad while a significant portion of UK housing is financed by foreign banks.	比如，奥地利和意大利的银行在东欧涉足颇深； 现在由英国政府控股的苏格兰皇家银行的主要业务是在海外，另一方面，英国相当大一部分的住房的资金来自于外国银行。


Eventually the various national authorities will have to protect each other, but it is only a common danger that will force them to do so. 	最终各国的主管部门将不得不相互保护，但是只能当面临共同的危险时才会迫使它们这么做。


The owners of wealth may increasingly turn to the yen and gold for safety but the may run into resistance from the authorities—sooner in the case of the yen than gold.	财富的拥有者也许会越来越多地转向日元和黄金以寻求安全，但是他们可能会面临主管部门的阻挠，首先就是日元。


And there will be a tug of war between those who seek safety and those who need to use their reserves to save their businesses.	寻求资金安全的势力与需要利用他们的外汇储备来拯救它们的商业的势力之间可能会发生激烈的斗争。


With all these contradictory forces at work we can expect wild currency fluctuations.	由于这两种相互对抗的力量的左右，外汇市场将会出现大幅的波动。


Interest Rates	利率和增长


The way out of a deflationary trap is to first induce inflation and then to reduce it.	走出通货紧缩的陷阱的途径是首先诱导通货膨胀然后去降低它。


That is an intricate operation and success is far from assured.	这种运作非常复杂，很难保证会取得成功。


As soon as economic activity in the United States revives, interest rates on government bonds are liable to shoot up; indeed, the yield curve is likely to steepen in anticipation.	美国经济一旦复苏，政府债券利率就会大幅度上扬。 实际上，由于人们的预期，收益曲线可能会巨变。


Either way, a rise in long-term interest rates is liable to choke off the recovery. The prospect of the greatly increased money supply turning into inflation is likely to lead to a period of stagflation.	无论哪种情况出现，长期利率的上升将会抑制复苏，而货币供应大幅度增加会导致通货膨胀的前景很可能导致一个时期的滞涨。


That, however, would be a high-class, desirable outcome because it would avoid prolonged depression.	但是，这是一个高级、令人渴望的结果，因为它会避免长期的萧条。


It is difficult, but not impossible, to imagine the U.S. economy growing at a rate of 3 percent or more in the decade ahead.	很难想象美国经济将会在未来十年中年均增长3%，但是这并非不可能。


The United States has been running a chronic current account deficit, which exceeded 6 percent of GDP at its peak.	美国一直存在经常帐户赤字，最高的时候超过国民总产值的6%。


That will disappear, and it will leave behind a heavy burden of foreign debt that will be further swollen by the budget deficits of the next few years.	这一局面将会消失，但是将会留下巨大的外债负担，而未来几年的预算赤字将会进一步扩大外债。


Consumption as a share of GDP has to fall.	消费在国民总产值中的比例必须下降。


The financial services sector, which has been the fastest growing segment of the economy, will shrink.	一直是经济中增长最快的金融服务部门将会萎缩。


With baby boomers retiring in increasing numbers, demographic trends have turned unfavorable. All these are negative influences.	二战后生育高峰期出生的一代人的开始进入退休期，使人口趋势出现不利的局面。


What is to be expected on the positive side?	所有这些都是负面的因素。


More equitable income distribution, both domestically and internationally. Better social services, including education.	那���有那些是积极的因素呢？


A constructive energy policy leading to large-scale investments in alternative energy and energy saving. Reduced military expenditures.	国内和国际的收入分配将会更加均衡，社会服务包括教育将会更好，建设性的能源政策将会引导在替代能源和节能方面的大规模投资，军费开支缩减，发展中国家更快速的增长将会提供更好的出口市场和投资机会。


Faster growth in the developing world providing better export markets and investment opportunities. But even with the best policies, domestic growth is liable to lag behind the global economy.	但是即便有最好的政策，美国国内的增长也很有可能会落后于全球经济的增长。


China	中国


What China does will have almost as much influence as President Obama on the future of the global economy, and Chinese-American relations will be the most important bilateral relationship in the world.	中国采取的行动对全球经济的未来将会产生和奥巴马总统一样的影响，而中美关系将会成为世界上最为重要的双边关系。


China has a tremendous interest in the prosperity of the global economy.	全球经济繁荣对中国而言至关重要。


Obama can build on this in reconstructing the international financial system, but it will require great tact and foresight on both sides.	奥巴马可以利用这一点来重新建构国际金融体系，但是这要求中美双方娴熟的技巧和高瞻远瞩。


The emergence of a new world power is a dangerous process.	新的世界强国的崛起是一个危险的进程。


Twice it has led to world war in which the emergent power was defeated.	上个世纪两次大国的崛起都导致了世界大战，最终崛起的大国战败。


China has to go out of its way to make itself acceptable if it wants to be accepted as a world leader.	中国如果想要被接受成为世界领袖就要独辟蹊径，使它为各国所接受。


It has adapted the doctrine of harmonious development, which is the right approach, but it also has other doctrines, notably those relating to Taiwan and Tibet, that work in the opposite direction.	中国的“和谐发展”的政策主张是正确的策略，但是它还有其他的一些政策主张却完全不和谐，比如有关台湾和西藏问题的政策。


Due to the erroneous policies of the Bush administration and the bursting of the super-bubble, China has gained too much power too soon.   For a constructive partnership, both sides will have to lean over backward.	由于布什政府的政策错误和超级泡沫的破裂使中国过快地获得了过多的权势。 为了建立建设性的伙伴关系，双方都必须尽最大努力。


President Obama has to treat China as an equal partner and China has to accept continuing American leadership.	奥巴马总统必须把中国视为一个平等的伙伴，而中国则必须继续接受美国的领导地位。


That will not be easy for either side.	这对双方而言都不是易事。


China has much to lose.	中国会损失很大。


It is not a democracy, and there is no established routine for changing governments.	它缺乏民主的体制，而政府的更迭也没有一个既定的方式。


Failure to achieve a satisfactory growth rate—generally defined as 8 percent per annum—could lead to political turmoil, and political turmoil in China would be disastrous for the world.	如果无法取得满意的经济增长率（一般看来需要保持每年8%的增长率），就会很容易导致政治动乱，而中国如果发生政治动乱对全世界而言都是灾难。


Fortunately, China has developed a method of elaborate consultations that, while not democratic, do give the various interest groups involved a voice in determining policy.	中国已经建立了细致的协商体系，尽管并不民主，但是也可以在决策时给主要的利益集团发言权。


The main drawback of the consensus-building process is that it is slow and cumbersome, and there is a danger is that the Chinese leadership will not move fast enough to counteract the sudden drop in the global economy.	达成共识的进程的主要缺点是缓慢和繁琐，因而就存在中国领导人在全球经济突然发生衰退时无法快速应对的危险。


Here again, a strong lead from the new Obama administration could have a beneficial effect.	在这里，奥巴马政府强有力的领导将会产生有利的效果。


The Indian Subcontinent	印度次大陆


India is more self-contained than China, and it should have less difficulty in maintaining its upside momentum.	印度于中国相比更为自我收敛，而且在维持向上的势头上较为容易。


The Indian stock market has been harder hit than that of most countries, but its banking system, which is still largely in government hands, has been less affected.	印度的股市比其他国家遭到了更大的打击，但是它的银行系统依旧在很大程度上掌握在政府手中，受到影响不大。


Remittances from the Gulf States will suffer and its outsourcing business will languish, but hopefully infrastructure investments, of which India has a great backlog, will continue apace.	来自海湾国家的汇款将会减少，外包业务会遇到挫折，但是基础设施投资却很有希望，印度在这方面一直欠债，它希望继续这方面的高速增长。


The macro-economic outlook is more favorable than for most of the world.	印度宏观经济的状况也比世界大多数国家更好。


The greatest uncertainties are political, and they revolve around Pakistan, which is a failing state.	印度最大的不确定因素是政治方面的，而且与巴基斯坦这个失败的国家息息相关。


Some elements in the military and intelligence services have been closely involved with terrorists, and there is a real danger that they may gain the upper hand.	巴基斯坦军事和情报部门的一些人与恐怖分子联系密切，而且他们取得控制权的危险很大。


The November 26, 2008, terrorist attacks on Mumbai were brilliantly planned, timed, and executed.	2008年11月26日恐怖分子对孟买的攻击是经过精心策划、安排和执行的。


Coming before the Indian elections, it was meant to set India and Pakistan against each other, allowing the Islamist influence in Pakistan at least to survive or at most to gain control of the State.	这一袭击发生在印度大选之前，意在让印度和巴基斯坦两国交恶，让巴基斯坦的伊斯兰势力至少能够存活下来，甚至控制这个国家。


The Bush administration allowed all the various players to be set against each other: Pakistan against India and Afghanistan; the military against the civilian government within Pakistan; Nawaz Sharif against Asif Ali Zardari, within the civilian government—not to mention the various tribes that have been armed by the military in order to fight the Pakistani Taliban fighting each other.	布什政府允许不同的势力相互钳制。 它让巴基斯坦对付印度和阿富汗，让巴基斯坦的军队对付文官政府，让文官政府内部的谢里夫对付扎尔达里，乃至让得到军队武装、用以对付巴基斯坦塔利班组织的各个部族相互争斗。


The task of the Obama administration will be to bring the various factions together to fight the common enemy, the people behind the terrorist attacks on Mumbai.	奥巴马政府的任务就是团结不同派别对付共同的敌人，也就是孟买恐怖袭击的策划者。


The problem of Pakistan is closely interlinked with the problem of Afghanistan.	巴基斯坦的问题与阿富汗密切相关。


The American forces invading Afghanistan were originally welcomed as liberators, but NATO got involved without a proper plan of engagement, and after eight years the presence of foreign troops is no longer welcome.	美军入侵阿富汗时最初被当成解放者，但是北约在没有适当的参与计划情况下就参加进来，经过八年时间后，外国军队不再受到欢迎。


A New NATO plan ought to call for an orderly exit, but that is not possible while al Qaeda and the Taliban are gathering strength.	应该计划有秩序的撤离，但是在基地组织和塔利班正在积聚势力的时候这是不可能的。


Yet they cannot be defeated without the active support of the local population.	但是没有当地民众的积极支持就难以打败他们。


Three obstacles stand in the way of success: the drug war that sets the local population against the occupying powers; the existence of a safe haven in the tribal areas of Pakistan and; the Karzai government’s loss of legitimacy and popularity.	第一是毒品战争，这一战争让当地民众与占领军对立； 第二是巴基斯坦部落领地中存在的安全的避风港；


The situation is not insoluble, but it will require extraordinary skill and perseverance to bring it under control..	第三是卡尔扎伊政府失去了合法性和民众支持。 局势并非无法解决，但是这要求有极高的技巧和耐性来控制局势。


The Oil-Producing Countries	石油输出国


The oil-producing countries have suffered a sudden reversal of fortune.	石油输出国的运势急转直下。


Their surpluses have turned into deficits, and their sovereign wealth funds and currency reserves have suffered major losses.	它们的盈余变成了赤字，而国家主权基金和外汇储备损失惨重。


The Gulf States have been badly hit, because their private sectors, including some banks, were greatly overextended.	海湾国家遭到严重打击，这是因为它们的私营部门、包括某些银行扩张过度。


Dubai was the world’s most spectacular real estate bubble and will have to be rescued by the deep pockets of Abu Dhabi.	迪拜成为世界上最大的房地产泡沫，不得不由阿布扎比的巨额储备挽救。


But the oil producers’ woes are not necessarily bad news.	但是石油生产国的遭遇并非就是坏消息。


Some of the major oil-surplus countries, notably Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, have been enemies of the current world order, and their wings are being trimmed.	某些主要石油盈余国家，最为主要的是伊朗、委内瑞拉以及俄罗斯一直是当今世界秩序的敌人，现在它们的羽翼已经被剪除。


The decline in Iran’s capacity to sponsor political and terrorist movements in neighboring countries is already having beneficial effects.	伊朗支持邻国政治和恐怖活动的能力下降，已经产生了有益的效果。


The political and security situation in Iraq seems to be stabilizing, and Syria seems to be more amenable to negotiation.	伊拉克的政治和安全局势看起来正在稳定，而叙利亚好像更加愿意谈判了。


The chances are good that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will not be re-elected in June 2009.	伊朗总统阿贾德不大可能在2009年重新当选。


By contrast, Russia may become more of a menace due to the decline in oil prices.	与此相比，俄罗斯可能由于石油价格下跌而更多地成为威胁。


Under Vladimir Putin, nationalism has replaced communism as the country’s guiding ideology.	在普京的统治下，民族主义已经取代共产主义成为俄国的主导意识形态。


The Kremlin is now using its control over natural resources to reestablish Russia’s position as a political power, enrich the rulers and ensure their own control over Russia, and to bribe and suborn the rulers of the former Soviet.  The various objectives mutually reinforce each other; together, they constitute the new order – a sham democracy built on petrol-patronage.	克里姆林宫正在利用其对自然资源的控制来重新建立俄罗斯作为政治大国的地位，让统治者发家致富并且确保他们对俄罗斯的控制，同时贿赂和收买前苏联加盟共和国的统治者。 不同的目标相互强化对方，它们共同组成了新的秩序，也就是建立在石油赞助上的伪民主。


In the Putin regime, economic power has been concentrated in the hands of two groups: those who acquired property and those who take a slice of cash flows.	在普京的统治下，经济权力被集中在两大集团的手中：获得财产的集团和从现金流量中分得一杯羹的集团。


By and large, the first group is more sophisticated and more Western-oriented: it keeps its money and its children abroad.	大体上，第一个集团更老练并且更倾向西方：他们把钱和孩子都在了国外。


The second group exploits the state’s arbitrary powers more directly.	第二个集团更加直接地利用国家的专断权。


The first group was decimated by the financial crisis; the second was left relatively unscathed.	第一个集团在金融危机中大量倒下，第二个集团相对来说却未受损失。


The crisis reinforced the arbitrary powers of the state, as a large part of official currency reserves was spent to bail out and reacquire the first group’s assets.	危机强化了国家的专断权，因为官方外汇储备的相当一部分被用于帮助使第一集团的资产摆脱困境以及重新获得了他们的资产。


This is important, because, as the economic outlook deteriorates and the Putin regime will no longer be able to satisfy people’s economic expectations, it is likely to rely more actively on arbitrary state powers.	这相当重要，因为随着经济形势的恶化以及普京政权无法再满足公众对经济的期望，它很有可能会更加积极地运用国家的专断权。


After all, the Kremlin is occupied not by the cautious bureaucrats of the Soviet era, but by buccaneers who were willing to take risks to get where they are.	说到底，克里姆林宫现在不是由苏联时期谨慎的官僚、而不被一帮愿意冒险实现他们的目标的冒险家控制着。


This may translate into military adventures abroad and repression at home.	这可能体现为在海外的军事冒险以及国内的经济萧条。


Europe	欧洲


Different European countries have reacted differently to the rise of a hostile Russia, influenced by their historical experience and their economic interests.	不同的欧洲国家对于敌对的俄罗斯的崛起的反应并不相同，这主要取决于它们的历史经验和经济利益。


Europe must resist the geopolitical challenge that Russia is posing, and it must be unified to have any chance of success.	欧洲必须抵御俄罗斯给它们带来的地缘政治挑战，并且它们只有联合起来才有机会取得成功。


But a unified European policy must not be purely geopolitical, because Europe’s common interest would not be strong enough to override national interests.	但是统一的欧洲政策一定不是纯粹地缘政治性的，因为欧洲的共同利益还没有大到能够超越国家利益。


Russia could divide and conquer, as it is doing already. 	俄罗斯可以分而治之，就像它正在做的那样。


The key to Europe’s ability to neutralize Russia’s geopolitical advantage is to establish a unified energy policy, with a Europe-wide distribution network and a Europe-wide regulatory authority that has precedence over national regulators.	欧洲抵御俄罗斯地缘政治优势的能力的关键在于制定一个统一的能源政策，有一个欧洲范围的分配网络和能够凌驾于各国监管者之上的欧洲范围的监管机构。


This would deprive Russia of its ability to play one country off against another, because a concession granted to one national distributor would immediately become available to customers in all the other countries.	这将使俄罗斯无法再利用一个国家来压制另一个国家，因为提供给一国经销商的优惠将立即成为提供给所有其他国家的客户的优惠。


It no less necessary to continue promoting the rule of law, international cooperation, and the principles of open society, mainly by reforming the international financial system and by paying special attention to Russia’s near-abroad.	继续推动法制建设、国际合作和开放社会的原则也同等必要，主要是通过改革国际金融体制以及给予俄罗斯的周边国家更多的关注。


Ukraine, in particular, is in a perilous state, but financing public works that would create jobs in Eastern Ukraine, where the steel industry is in distress, could make a major difference both politically and economically.	尤其是乌克兰现在已是危机四伏，但是通过为钢铁业处于困境中的乌克兰东部的公共建设工程提供资金来创造就业机会，可以在政治和经济上带来巨大的变化。


Georgia must be helped to recover from the damage inflicted by the Russian invasion, but help should be contingent on the Saakashvili government observing the principles of open society.	必须给格鲁吉亚提供帮助使之从俄罗斯入侵所遭受的损失中恢复过来，但是这种帮助的条件是萨卡什维利政府必须遵守开放社会的原则。


Russia cannot be helped directly because of its excessive reliance on arbitrary state power, but when Russia sees progress in international cooperation, particularly with China, it will not want to be left out in the cold.	俄罗斯不可能得到直接的帮助，因为它过度依赖国家的专断权，但是当俄罗斯看到国际合作，尤其是与中国的合作的进展时，它不会愿意被独自留在寒风中。


The financial crisis and its aftermath will be a period of testing and, one hopes, development for the European Union’s institutions, particularly its financial institutions, which are relatively new.	金融危机及其余波对世界是一个考验，人们希望看到欧盟体制的发展，尤其是其相对较新的金融体制的发展。


The EU has a common currency and the ECB, but it does not have a common fiscal policy or treasury.	欧盟有着共同的货币还有欧洲中央银行，但是它并没有一个共同的财政政策或国库。


This shortcoming has become increasingly evident and it may lead to a breakup of the eurozone.	这一缺点变得越来越明显并且可能导致欧元区的分裂。


But belonging to the eurozone proved to be very valuable—Greece is hurting less than Denmark although its problems are much greater.	但是隶属于欧元区被证明是非常有价值的，希腊所遭受的损失比丹麦小，尽管它的问题更严重。


Therefore the odds favor that the euro will emerge from the current crisis with the ECB given greater powers over the banking system.	因此如果欧洲中央银行给授予对银行系统更大的权力，欧元将很有可能走出目前的危机。


The Bush administration distinguished itself by driving a wedge between “old Europe” and “new Europe.”	布什政府对于“老欧洲”和“新欧洲”区别对待。


It is to be hoped that the Obama administration will adopt the opposite course.	我们希望奥巴马政府将采取相反的方式。


The world badly needs a more united Europe, both politically and financially.	世界太需要一个在政治和经济上都更加联合的欧洲了。


The Developing World	发展中国家


A few countries like Brazil and Chile are reasonably well positioned to engage in countercyclical policies on their own with only a light assist from the IFIs.	巴西和智利等少数国家有很好的理由在谋求国际金融组织少量支持的情况下坚持实施反周期的政策。


But most of the rest of the developing world is heavily dependent on the initiatives outlined in the previous chapter.	但是大多数发展中国家都非常依赖上一章所描述的计划。


In the absence of a radical international initiative, they face a very grim future.	如果没有一个基本的国际计划。


Countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Morocco, and Haiti have already experienced food riots.	它们的未来将非常暗淡。


Others, such as South Africa and Turkey, suffer from serious power outages.	巴基斯坦、埃及、摩洛哥和海地等国家已经出现了粮食“暴动”。


Mexico has a serious security problem because of drug trafficking.	墨西哥由于毒品走私的问题而存在严重的安全问题。


As the economic situation deteriorates, the chances of civil unrest rise.	如果经济形势继续恶化，有可能会出现大骚乱。


The collapse of credit in the global financial system is having an even more devastating effect on the countries of the periphery than those at the center.  Credit lines are withdrawn, maturing loans cannot be rolled over and trade finance has dried up.	全球金融体系信贷的崩溃对于处于危机边缘的国家比那些处于危机中心的国家而言有着更大的破坏力。 信贷额度被收回，到期的债务无法偿付，贸易融资枯竭。


Hopefully, the leaders of the world recognize that it is in their own enlightened self-interest to come to the rescue of the developing world.	唯一给人希望的是，世界的领导人认识到援救发展中国家符合他们的自身利益。


The attraction of the SDR donation scheme is that it does not impose any direct costs on donor countries.	特别提款权捐助计划的吸引力在于它并不会给捐助国带来任何直接的成本。


All they have to do is vote for the creation of SDR and then pass on the benefits to less-developed countries.	它们所需做的只是投票同意建立特别提款权，然后向欠发达国家输出利益。


I hope they will rise to the occasion.	我希望它会最终实现。


My Plan to Drop the Bomb	我的行动计划


NEW YORK – The destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 marked an end and a beginning.  The close of the Second World War ushered in a Cold War, with a precarious peace based on the threat of mutually assured destruction.	纽约——1945年广岛和长崎被毁标志着一个时代的结束和另一个时代的开始。 二战结束后冷战开始，世界小心翼翼地维护着摇摇欲坠的和平。


Today the world is at another turning point.  The assumption that nuclear weapons are indispensable to keeping the peace is crumbling.  Disarmament is back on the global agenda – and not a moment too soon.	今天世界面临着又一个转折。 必须依靠核武器来维护和平的说法已经支离破碎。


A groundswell of new international initiatives will soon emerge to move this agenda forward.	裁军问题重又登上了全球议事日程——现在处理这个问题正当其时。 不久就将爆发推动裁军议程的新一轮的国际行动浪潮。


The Cold War’s end, twenty years ago this autumn, was supposed to provide a peace dividend.  Instead, we find ourselves still facing serious nuclear threats.  Some stem from the persistence of more than 20,000 nuclear weapons and the contagious doctrine of nuclear deterrence.  Others relate to nuclear tests—more than a dozen in the post-Cold War era, aggravated by the constant testing of long-range missiles.	上述威胁有些来源于20，000多件现存的核武器，还有些来源于核威慑这个颇具传染性的理论。 也有的威胁来源于核试验——后冷战时期进行的核试验超过了12次，而不断试验远程导弹进一步恶化了原有局势。


Still others arise from concerns that more countries or even terrorists might be seeking the bomb.	还有些威胁来源于越来越多的国家甚至是恐怖分子都在试图获取核武器。


For decades, we believed that the terrible effects of nuclear weapons would be sufficient to prevent their use.  The superpowers were likened to a pair of scorpions in a bottle, each knowing a first strike would be suicidal.  Today’s expanding nest of scorpions, however, means that no one is safe.  The Presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States—holders of the largest nuclear arsenals—recognize this.  They have endorsed the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons, most recently at their Moscow summit, and are seeking new reductions.	俄联邦和美国这两个核武器最大拥有国的总统都承认这个事实。 不久前在莫斯科峰会上，他们赞同建设无核世界的目标，并试图执行新的灭核行动。


Many efforts are underway worldwide to achieve this goal.  Earlier this year, the 65-member Conference on Disarmament—the forum that produces multilateral disarmament treaties—broke a deadlock and agreed to negotiations on a fissile material treaty.  Other issues it will discuss include nuclear disarmament and security assurances for non-nuclear-weapon states.	今年早些时候，有65个成员国的裁军会议——也就是达成多边裁军协议的论坛——打破了僵局，同意谈判裂变材料协议。 此外，裁军会议还将讨论核裁军及确保无核武器国家安全的问题。


In addition, Australia and Japan have launched a major international commission on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.  My own multimedia “WMD—WeMustDisarm!” campaign, which will culminate on the International Day of Peace (21 September), will reinforce growing calls for disarmament by former statesmen and grassroots campaigns, such as “Global Zero.”	此外，澳大利亚和日本已经成立了大型核不扩散及裁军国际委员会。 我本人的多媒体“WMD——我们必须裁军！


These calls will get a further boost in September when civil society groups gather in Mexico City for a UN-sponsored conference on disarmament and development.	”宣传活动将于国际和平日（9月21日）当天达到高潮，这项活动将增强前政治家和“全球零核”等草根运动的裁军呼声。 上述呼声将在9月社会团体齐聚墨西哥城，参加由联合国主办的裁军和发展会议时进一步得到加强。


Though the UN has been working on disarmament since 1946, two treaties negotiated under UN auspices are now commanding the world’s attention.	尽管联合国从1946年起就开始从事核裁军工作，但其发起谈判的两个条约现在正引起全世界的热议。


Also in September, countries that have signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) will meet at the UN to consider ways to promote its early entry into force.  North Korea’s nuclear tests, its missile launches and its threats of further provocation lend new urgency to this cause.	也是在9月，已经签署《全面禁止核试验条约》（CTBT）的国家将在联合国举行会晤，思考尽快让条约生效的方法。 北朝鲜的核试验、导弹发射和进一步挑衅的威胁使这项任务更具紧迫性。


Next May, the UN will also host a major five-year review conference involving the parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which will examine the state of the treaty’s “grand bargain” of disarmament, non-proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.  If the CTBT can enter into force, and if the NPT review conference makes progress, the world would be off to a good start on its journey to a world free of nuclear weapons.	明年5月，联合国还将召开由《核不扩散条约》（NPT）缔约国参加的大型五周年回顾会议，研究条约中裁军“大规模交易”的现状、不扩散及和平利用核能等诸多问题。 如果《全面禁止核试验条约》能够得以贯彻，同时《核不扩散条约》审查会议能够取得进展，那么世界各国将在无核化道路上取得良好的开端。


My own five-point plan to achieve this goal begins with a call for the NPT Parties to pursue negotiations in good faith—as required by the treaty—on nuclear disarmament, either through a new convention or through a series of mutually reinforcing instruments backed by a credible system of verification.	我本人实现无核化目标的五点计划首先呼吁《核不扩散条约》缔约国像《条约》规定的那样，通过签署新协议或由可靠证明体系支持的相互增强的系列条款，以最大的诚意参与核裁军谈判进程。


Second, I urged the Security Council to consider other ways to strengthen security in the disarmament process, and to assure non-nuclear-weapon states against nuclear weapons threats.  I proposed to the Council that it convene a summit on nuclear disarmament, and I urged non-NPT states to freeze their own weapon capabilities and make their own disarmament commitments.	其次，我敦促安理会思考加强核裁军进程安全的其他方法，保证无核国家免受核武器的威胁。 我建议安理会召开核裁军峰会，并敦促核不扩散缔约国冻结其自身的武器力量，并做出裁军承诺。


My third proposal relates to the rule of law.  Universal membership in multilateral treaties is key, as are regional nuclear-weapon-free zones and a new treaty on fissile materials.  President Barack Obama’s support for US ratification of the CTBT is welcome — the treaty only needs a few more ratifications to enter into force.	关键是要广泛参与多边协定，并实现区域无核化，签署新的裂变材料条约。 巴拉克·奥巴马总统支持美国批准《全面禁止核试验条约》是个好现象——该条约只需再争取几个国家通过即可正式生效。


My fourth point addresses accountability and transparency.  Countries with nuclear weapons should publish more information about what they are doing to fulfill their disarmament commitments.  While most of these countries have revealed some details about their weapons programs, we still do not know how many nuclear weapons exist worldwide.  The UN Secretariat could serve as a repository for such data.	有核国家应当公布与其如何兑现核裁军承诺有关的更多信息。 尽管多数有核国家已经公布了自身武器计划的某些细节，但我们仍不清楚全世界范围内究竟有多少核武器。


Finally, I am urging progress in eliminating other weapons of mass destruction and limiting missiles, space weapons and conventional arms — all of which are needed for a nuclear-weapon-free world.	最后，我敦促在消灭其他大规模杀伤性武器及限制导弹、太空武器和传统武器方面取得更大的进步——要想建设一个无核世界，所有这些进步都非常必要。 核裁军必须预料到其他武器带来的危机。


This, then, is my plan to drop the bomb.  Global security challenges are serious enough without the risks from nuclear weapons or their acquisition by additional states or non-state actors.  Of course, strategic stability, trust among nations, and the settlement of regional conflicts would all help to advance the process of disarmament.  Yet disarmament has its own contributions to make in serving these goals and should not be postponed.	即便没有核武器或其落入其他国家或非国家参与者手中所带来的危害，全球面临的安全挑战也已经足够严重。 当然，战略稳定、国家互信和地区冲突的解决都有助于推进核裁军的进程。


It will restore hope for a more peaceful, secure and prosperous future.  It deserves everybody’s support.	核裁军可以恢复人们对更为和平、安全和繁荣未来的希望。 它理应得到所有人的支持。


My Speech to the Finance Graduates	我给金融毕业生的演讲


NEW HAVEN – At this time of year, at graduation ceremonies in America and elsewhere, those about to leave university often hear some final words of advice before receiving their diplomas.	纽黑文—每年的这个时候是美国和其他国家的毕业季，即将离校的毕业生经常会在取得学位前听到最后的讲话和建议。


To those interested in pursuing careers in finance – or related careers in insurance, accounting, auditing, law, or corporate management – I submit the following address:	对那些有志于在金融界（以及相关的保险、会计、审计、法律和公司管理界）打拼的同学，我有一些建议：


Best of luck to you as you leave the academy for your chosen professions in finance.	你们都是幸运儿，即将离开学术界，前往自己所选择的金融业打拼。


Over the course of your careers, Wall Street and its kindred institutions will need you.	华尔街和其他金融机构正等着你们大展宏图。


Your training in financial theory, economics, mathematics, and statistics will serve you well.	你们在金融理论、经济学、数学和统计学方面所受的训练将让你们如虎添翼。


But your lessons in history, philosophy, and literature will be just as important, because it is vital not only that you have the right tools, but also that you never lose sight of the purposes and overriding social goals of finance.	但你们在历史、哲学和文学方面的造诣同样重要，因为你不仅必须拥有正确的工具，同时也不能忘记，金融业所追求的最高目标是社会效益。


Unless you have been studying at the bottom of the ocean, you know that the financial sector has come under severe criticism – much of it justified – for thrusting the world economy into its worst crisis since the Great Depression.	如果你没有受过最基础的金融学训练，你也知道，金融部门正在遭受口诛笔伐——从相当程度上说罪有应得——因为它将世界拖入了自大萧条以来最严重的危机中。


And you need only check in with some of your classmates who have populated the Occupy movements around the world to sense the widespread resentment of financiers and the top 1% of income earners to whom they largely cater (and often belong).	只消打量一下你周围参加过席卷全球的“占领”的同班同学，你就能感到普遍存在的对金融家和收入最高的1%人群的不满，而事实上，这个群体正是他们所拼命迎合（而且通常正是他们身之所属）的。


While some of this criticism may be over-stated or misplaced, it nonetheless underscores the need to reform financial institutions and practices.	这些批评中有不乏言辞过激和无的放矢者，但确实击中了金融制度和行为需要改革的核心。


Finance has long been central to thriving market democracies, which is why its current problems need to be addressed.	金融一直是市场民主国家繁荣的核心动力，这也是当前金融业问题必须解决的原因所在。


With your improved sense of our interconnectedness and diverse needs, you can do that.	你们对于我们的互相联系和多元化的需求早已有了充分的认识，能够完成金融业的改革。


Indeed, it is the real professional challenge ahead of you, and you should embrace it as an opportunity.	是十四行，这正是你们所面临的职业挑战，你们应该将这视为一次良机。


Young finance professionals need to familiarize themselves with the history of banking, and recognize that it is at its best when it serves ever-broadening spheres of society.	金融业年轻才俊需要熟悉银行史，明白银行业只有在为不断扩张的社会服务时才能繁荣。


Here, the savings-bank movement in the United Kingdom and Europe in the nineteenth century, and the microfinance movement pioneered by the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh in the twentieth century, comes to mind.	在这方面，19世纪英国和欧洲的储蓄银行运动以及20世纪以孟加拉国格莱珉银行为先驱的微金融运动树立了榜样。


Today, the best way forward is to update financial and communications technology to offer a full array of enlightened banking services to the lower middle class and the poor.	如今，最正确的前进方向是升级金融和通信技术，为下等中产阶级和穷人提供全面、新颖的银行服务。


Graduates going into mortgage banking are faced with a different, but equally vital, challenge: to design new, more flexible loans that will better help homeowners to weather the kind of economic turbulence that has buried millions of people today in debt.	选择按揭银行业务的毕业生将面临不同但同样关键的挑战：设计新的、更有弹性的贷款，以更好地帮助业主抵御眼下将千百万人拖入债务深渊的经济波动。


Young investment bankers, for their part, have a great opportunity to devise more participatory forms of venture capital – embodied in the new crowd-funding Web sites – to spur the growth of innovative new small businesses. Meanwhile, opportunities will abound for rookie insurance professionals to devise new ways to hedge risks that real people worry about, and that really matter – those involving their jobs, livelihoods, and home values.	投资银行年轻才俊将面临千载难逢的良机，设计出更具参与性的风险资本形式——比如新出现的大众集资网站——以刺激创新性小企业的成长。 与此同时，进入保险业的同学们也不会错过机会的青睐，你们可以设计为芸芸众生规避风险的新方法，这绝不是一件小事——事关他们的工作、生活和住房价值。


Beyond investment banks and brokerage houses, modern finance has a public and governmental dimension, which clearly needs reinventing in the wake of the recent financial crisis.	除了投资银行和券商之外，现代金融还有公共和政府部门的维度，最近的金融危机明确地显示，这一维度也需要推倒重建。


Setting the rules of the game for a robust, socially useful financial sector has never been more important.	设计游戏规则，打造稳健的、对社会有用的金融部门从来都是第一等大事。


Recent graduates are needed in legislative and administrative agencies to analyze the legal infrastructure of finance, and regulate it so that it produces the greatest results for society.	立法和行政管理机构需要新鲜血液分析金融基础设施和新的监管方法，以求社会效益最大化。


A new generation of political leaders needs to understand the importance of financial literacy and find ways to supply citizens with the legal and financial advice that they need.	新一代政治领导人需要理解金融文化的重要性，能够找出为需要的公民提供法律和财务建议的办法。


Meanwhile, economic policymakers face the great challenge of designing new financial institutions, such as pension systems and public entitlements based on the solid grounding of intergenerational risk-sharing.	与此同时，经济决策面临设计新金融制度（如基于代际风险共担的退休金制度和公共福利制度）的重大挑战。


Those of you deciding to pursue careers as economists and finance scholars need to develop a better understanding of asset bubbles – and better ways to communicate this understanding to the finance profession and to the public.	如果你们有志于在经济和金融学术界发展，那么你们需要提出对资产泡沫的更好的理解，以及更好地将你的理解与金融学界同行和普罗大众交流。


As much as Wall Street had a hand in the current crisis, it began as a broadly held belief that housing prices could not fall – a belief that fueled a full-blown social contagion.	在此次危机中，华尔街的影响不可谓不大，危机之滥觞便是房价永不下跌这一广为流传的信条，在这一信条的助推下，社会染上了愈演愈烈的传染病。


Learning how to spot such bubbles and deal with them before they infect entire economies will be a major challenge for the next generation of finance scholars.	研究如何识别这些泡沫并在蔓延到整个经济之前处理掉它们将是新一代金融学者的主要挑战。


Equipped with sophisticated financial ideas ranging from the capital asset pricing model to intricate options-pricing formulas, you are certainly and justifiably interested in building materially rewarding careers. There is no shame in this, and your financial success will reflect to a large degree your effectiveness in producing strong results for the firms that employ you.	你们已经掌握了从资产定价模型到复杂期权定价公式的成熟金融思想，一定非常想在金融界闯出一番成就，这再正常不过了，没有什么好扭扭捏捏的，而你们在金融界的成就很大程度上将体现于你们为雇主创造利润的效率。


But, however imperceptibly, the rewards for success on Wall Street, and in finance more generally, are changing, just as the definition of finance must change if is to reclaim its stature in society and the trust of citizens and leaders.	但是，可能大家没有注意到，华尔街（或者更一般地说，整个金融界）对成功的奖赏正在发生变化，这亦是理所当然，正如金融的定义必须做出改变，如果金融界想赢回崇高的社会地位以及公民和领导人的信任的话。


Finance, at its best, does not merely manage risk, but also acts as the steward of society’s assets and an advocate of its deepest goals.	真正的好金融绝不仅仅是管理风险，还必须是社会资产的看守者和社会价值的支持者。


Beyond compensation, the next generation of finance professionals will be paid its truest rewards in the satisfaction that comes with the gains made in democratizing finance – extending its benefits into corners of society where they are most needed.	新一代从业者不仅将获得报酬，还将获得最真实的奖赏——来自金融民主化的进步（亦即给最需要的人带去金融服务）所带来的满足感。