Today, 31% of adults in West Africa are overweight or obese.	如今，31%的西非成年人超重或肥胖。


In Nigeria, my home country, the share is 33%.	在我的祖国尼日利亚，这一比例为33%。


Beyond heart disease, that extra weight raises the risk of diabetes, high blood pressure, stroke, and more.	除了心脏病，超重也升高了糖尿病、高血压、中风和其他疾病的风险。


Malnutrition also has serious economic consequences.	营养不良也造成了严重的经济后果。


The 2016 Global Nutrition Report estimates that, across Africa, malnutrition results in a loss of 11% of GDP – more than the annual losses brought about by the 2008-2010 global financial crisis.	《2016年全球营养报告》（2016 Global Nutrition Report）估算，全非洲营养不良导致GDP损失11%——比2008—2010年全球金融危机所造成的年损失还要大。


On an individual level, adults who were stunted in their childhood – a condition that has affected nearly 70% of the working population in some areas – often face a diminished capacity to work and earn a living, owing to the developmental challenges they faced.	在个体层面，儿时身高不足的成年人——在一些地区，这一情况影响近70%的工作人口——常常因为发育缺陷而工作能力低下，难以谋生。


The effects of wasting on human development and economic progress are almost as profound.	人力发展和经济进步的影响同样深远。


The imperative to tackle malnutrition could not be clearer.	显然，解决营养不良是当务之急。


Yet progress has been mixed, particularly in West Africa.	但进展差强人意，特别是在西非。


To be sure, some countries have had impressive success, thanks to decisive government action.	平心而论，一些国家取得了令人瞩目的成功，这要归因于果断的政府措施。


In just a decade, Ghana cut stunting by nearly half, partly through investment in areas that affect nutrition, such as agriculture and social protection.	在短短十年中，加纳发育迟缓率降低了近一半，部分要归功于在一些地区投入了影响营养的投资，如农业和社会保障。


Niger’s government halved the number of deaths of children under the age of five over a similar period, by making specific budget and operational decisions to tackle severe wasting.	在同一时期，尼日利亚政府通过专项拨款和政策大力解决了严重消瘦问题，五岁以下儿童死亡数量减少了一半。


But other countries have hardly made a dent in the malnutrition problem.	但其他国家在营养不良问题上几乎没有作为。


In Togo, stunting rates have barely moved in the last decade.	在多哥，发育迟缓率在过去十年几乎没有变化。


In Mali and Guinea, wasting is on the rise.	在马里和几内亚，消瘦呈现上升趋势。


And these countries are not alone.	这些国家不是孤例。


Many other African countries may be poised to start writing their own success stories.	其他许多非洲国家很有成功希望。


Côte D’Ivoire has positioned itself to reduce stunting, while Senegal is close to being on track to address wasting.	科特迪瓦已经着眼于降低发育迟缓率，而塞内加尔即将开始解决消瘦问题。


In both countries, extra investment – both political and financial – could have an outsize impact.	在这两个国家，增加投资——包括政治方面和金融方面——都有望取得成效。


Yet donors and governments remain reluctant to provide the needed funding.	但出资者和政府仍不愿提供所需的资金。


According to the 2016 Global Nutrition Report, donor funds for nutrition-focused interventions are stagnating at $1 billion.	据《2016年全球营养报告》，着重于营养干预的捐助资金一直停留在10亿美元。


Nine West African governments spend, on average, just over 1% of their budgets on nutrition.	西非九国政府在营养方面的投入平均只占预算的1%。


And yet nutrition is one of the best investments we can make, with every $1 invested in nutrition yielding $16 in returns.	但营养是我们所能做的最佳投资之一，每1美元营养投资能产生16美元回报。


In many countries, such as India, obesity-related illnesses like heart disease are consuming up to 30% of families’ annual incomes.	在印度等许多国家，与肥胖有关的疾病，如心脏病，消耗了家庭年收入的30%。


Unless African governments start making smart choices and smart investments, the continent may face a similar fate.	除非非洲各国政府做出明智的选择，进行明智的投资，否则非洲也将面临类似的命运。


Many African governments have set out ambitious goals relating to security, stability, and long-term economic prosperity.	许多非洲国家政府制定了雄心勃勃的安全、稳定和长期经济繁荣目标。


Nutrition is critical to achieving any of them.	营养对于实现其中任何一个都至关重要。


It is central to our continent’s development, and should thus be a high priority for our policymakers.	这是非洲发展的核心，因此必须成为决策者的重中之重。


Millions of lives depend on it.	数百万人的生命取决于它。


Managing China’s Crisis Management	中国危机管理政策亟待盘整


BEIJING – China’s “Central Economic Work Meeting,” comprising top government decision makers, recently chose to continue the expansionary fiscal and monetary policy launched in the last quarter of 2008.	发自北京 —— 在最近召开的中央经济工作会议上，众多中国高层决策者都选择继续执行在去年第四季度展开的扩张性财政和货币政策。


But it also called for greater emphasis on transforming China’s development pattern and rebalancing its economic structure.	但会议也同时提出，要将重点放在中国经济发展模式的转换以及平衡经济结构方面。


The move thus signaled the start – well ahead of other countries – of China’s “exit” from crisis-driven economic policies.	而这一举措所带来的信号，就是中国 —— 抢在其他国家之前 —— 已经率先开始摆脱由危机所主导的经济政策。


Indeed, China should accelerate its change of course. While expansionary policies have succeeded in ensuring a V-shape recession, their medium and long-term effects are worrisome.	事实上中国有必要加快这一自身转换的进程，因为这一系列扩张性政策虽然确保中国实现了经济的 V 型复苏，但这些政策所可能带来的中长期影响却是令人忧心的。


First, China’s crisis management has made its growth pattern, marked by massive investment demand, even more problematic.	首先 , 中国的危机管理导致其自身发展模式 —— 以大规模投资需求为特点的 —— 所产生的问题更加严重。


China’s investment rate is extremely high in comparison with other major economies, and has been increasing steadily since 2001, creating first overheating and then overcapacity.	相对于其他主要经济体，中国的投资比率过高，而且自 2001 年以来就不断上升，导致了首轮经济过热以及随后产生的产能过剩问题。


Until the global financial/economic crisis that began in 2008, however, strong export performance concealed China’s overcapacity problem, which, thanks to the stimulus package, is now set to become more serious.	然而直到 2008 年的全球金融危机到来之前，强劲的出口势头掩盖了国内的产能过剩，而这一问题的严重性却在一揽子经济刺激计划的影响下进一步加深。


Indeed, China’s investment rate may have surpassed 50% in 2009.	事实上，中国的投资比率在 2009 年度已经超过 50% 了。


Second, China’s external imbalance may also worsen.	其次，中国的外部不均衡状态可能恶化。


Trade and exports accounted for 67% and 37% of the country’s GDP, respectively, before the global crisis, but have since fallen significantly.	在全球金融危机之前，贸易和出口分别贡献了全国 GDP 的 67% 和 37% ，但危机发生之后这两项所占的比重都严重下滑。


And yet reliance on external demand remains fundamentally unchanged, even as the contribution of net exports to GDP growth has turned negative.	但即便净出口对 GDP 的贡献已经降到了负数，中国对外部需求的依赖性也并未得到根本性改善。


In fact, worsening overcapacity, together with all the many types of price distortions still in place, may push Chinese enterprises to boost production for export markets, like the United States, where protectionist tendencies are likely to intensify in 2010 and onwards.	实际上进一步恶化的产能过剩问题，加上其他许多依然存在的价格扭曲问题将导致中国企业进一步扩大针对出口市场（比如美国）的生产，更何况这些出口目的地的贸易保护主义形势将在 2010 年以后继续加剧。


Third, China’s financial stability and fiscal position may deteriorate in the medium term.	第三，中国的金融稳定和财政状况将可能在中期恶化。


The government, well aware of the overcapacity problem, focused the country’s stimulus package on investment in infrastructure, rather than new factories.	政府对产能过剩问题有清醒认识，但是依然将经济刺激计划集中在基础设施而不是新的工厂之上。


But infrastructure is a long-term investment, revenues from which will be lower without accompanying investment in manufacturing capacity.	但基础设施是一项长期投资，如果不能和生产力投资相结合的话，基础设施的投资回报将更为低下。


An eight-lane highway must carry traffic to generate tolls.	正如一条八车道的高速公路必须要有车走才能赚回过路费。


Moreover, due to hasty and poorly supervised implementation, waste in infrastructure construction can be serious.	此外，由于操之过急而且缺乏有效监控的政策执行，在基础设施投资建设上的浪费现象将十分严重。


With an investment rate of 50% and a GDP growth rate of 8%, the incremental capital-output ratio could be higher than six, compared to 4.1 in 1991-2003, implying not only low efficiency, but also the possibility of a significant increase in nonperforming loans.	当投资比率达到 50% 以及 GDP 增长率达到 8% 的时候，持续增长的资本产出比率将超过 6 ，而 1991-2003 年期间这个数字还只是 4. 1 ，意味着不但投资效率低下，而且很可能出现大量的不良贷款。


Finally, monetary policy has been far too loose.	最后，货币政策已经太过宽松。


Unlike the US, China did not suffer from a liquidity shortage and a credit crunch during the global financial crisis.	跟美国不同，中国没有在全球金融危机中遭受流动性不足以及信贷紧缩问题的冲击。


Thus, low interest rates and non-market interference, rather than demand from enterprises, fueled explosive credit growth in the first half of 2009, surpassing the full-year target.	因此刺激了 2009 年上半年爆炸性的信贷增长，直接超出了全年信贷总额目标的不是企业的需求，而是低利率以及非市场干涉手段。


If commercial banks had been allowed to base lending decisions solely on economic considerations, credit and money supply would have grown more slowly, limiting the risk of rising bad-loan ratios, stalled enterprise reform, inflationary pressure, and a resurgence of asset bubbles as excess liquidity enters equity and real-estate markets.	如果商业银行只需要在经济原则下作出贷款决定的话，信贷和货币供应的增长将更为缓慢，也减少了坏账比率升高的风险，然而失控的企业改革进程，通胀压力，以及资产泡沫的复苏导致过剩的流动性都涌入了股票和房地产市场。


Indeed, China’s housing prices have been skyrocketing in recent months.	事实上，中国的住宅价格近几个月都在疯涨。


The government was too generous in helping revive real-estate demand, and, overwhelmed by fear of the negative impact of falling asset prices on economic growth, has been too cautious in dealing with bubbles when they have reappeared.	政府在扶���地产需求复苏方面过度宽容，同时也对资产价格下滑对经济发展的负面效应过度恐惧，以至于在处理再次涌现的泡沫方面太过谨慎。


With the housing sector accounting for 10% of GDP and investment in real-estate development accounting for 25% of total fixed investment, any decision to rein in runaway housing prices will be difficult.	由于房地产部门占中国 GDP 的 10% 而地产发展占了固定投资总额的 25% ，这意味着任何试图控制房产价格这匹脱缰野马的决策都难以下定决心。


All in all, the negative impact of the Chinese government’s crisis-management measures on China’s long-term growth may be serious if the authorities fail to tackle the economy’s structural problems head on.	总而言之，如果政府无法直接面对经济结构的问题，那么中国政府的危机管理手段对国家长期发展所造成的负面影响将十分严重。


But it is also worth noting that the government is well aware of the problems, and has begun to take measures to put structural adjustment back at the top of the policy agenda.	但也必须指出政府对这个问题也已经有了清晰的认识，并开始着手将结构调整问题放到优先议程当中。


In 2010, for example, the government may seek to stimulate domestic consumption by making income distribution more favorable to the household sector relative to the enterprise sector, and by providing more public goods to reduce households’ precautionary savings.	比如在 2010 年，政府可能会通过将财政收入更多地分配到跟企业有关的家庭经济部门来刺激国内消费，并提供更多的公共服务以降低居民家庭的防御性储蓄。


Certainly, without a more equitable income distribution, official talk of creating a “harmonious society” will sound empty.	当然，如果没有一个更公平的收入分配体系的话，那么构建 “ 和谐社会”的官方说辞也只能是一句空话。


Furthermore, the government should continue to eliminate price distortions by creating more flexible mechanisms, including for the exchange rate.	此外，政府应该创造包括汇率机制在内的更具灵活性的机制来消除价格扭曲现象。


The government’s goal should be to succeed not only in reviving the economy, but also in reversing the deterioration of China’s structural problems, thereby laying a solid foundation for economic growth in the future.	政府的目标不但是要重振经济，而且还要将中国经济结构问题不断恶化的势头扭转过来，并为未来的发展构建一个更为稳固的基础。


In this respect, the Chinese have good reason to be optimistic, for their country has defied predictions of economic demise repeatedly over the past three decades.	在这方面，中国人有理由感到乐观，因为我们的政府在过去 30 年以来已经成功打破了无数关于中国经济即将覆灭的预言。


Transatlantic Trade-Offs	跨大西洋权衡


LONDON – Almost two decades after the idea was first mooted, the United States and the European Union agreed last week to begin negotiating a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).	伦敦—跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系（TTIP）的思想提出20年后，美国和欧盟上周终于同意开始谈判了。


The partnership’s launch – which should occur at the beginning of 2015 – has been presented as a much-needed “deficit-free stimulus” that would boost US and EU GDP by 0.5% annually, while helping to increase employment on both sides of the Atlantic.	这一关系的建立——应该会在2015年初开始——不啻急需的“没有赤字的刺激”，能刺激0. 5个百分点的美国和欧盟GDP年增长率，也能提高大西洋两岸的就业水平。


While both parties aim to eliminate remaining tariffs on bilateral trade, they are particularly eager to reduce the thicket of non-tariff barriers – mainly competing technical and sanitary standards and regulations �� that have stifled development of the bilateral economic relationship.	双方都旨在取消双边贸易中仍然存在的关税，但最为渴望的还是削弱最厚实的非关税壁垒——主要是相互抵触的技术和卫生标准和监管，这些壁垒阻碍了双边经济关系的发展。


Closer regulatory cooperation may also help the US and the EU to confront what business leaders view as increasingly unfair competition from China both at home and abroad.	加紧监管合作可能还有助于美国和欧盟应对商业领袖所谓的来自中国的不公平国内外竞争的挑战。


But can the TTIP live up to the hype?	TTIP如何才能不辜负人们的热望？


Tellingly, the High-Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth, which was tasked with identifying the policies and measures that should define the negotiations, has recommended a more conservative approach.	最能说明问题的是，高规格就业和增长工作组（High-Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth，其职责是指出哪些政策和措施应该包括在谈判中）给出的建议颇为保守。


Indeed, the Group’s final report, released earlier this month, states that the agreement “should be designed to evolve over time,” moving “progressively toward a more integrated transatlantic marketplace.”	事实上，本月早些时候发布的工作组最终报告指出，协定“应该随时间的推移而修改”，“逐渐地向更统一的跨大西洋市场”前进。


Specifically, the group recommends establishing “an on-going mechanism for improved dialogue and cooperation” on regulatory issues and non-tariff barriers, as well as a “framework for identifying opportunities for…future regulatory cooperation.”	具体而言，工作组建议在监管问题和非关税壁垒方面成立“一个不断改善对话和合作的机制”，并建立“识别……未来监管合作机会的框架”。


Such caution is warranted, given that some of the main principles that drive the two parties’ regulatory approaches are vastly different – and sometimes at odds with one another.	如此谨慎是有道理的，因为双方在监管方式的主要原则方面存在严重分歧，甚至颇多矛盾之���。


For example, the EU has long been committed to the “precautionary principle,” which prevents products that may harm human health from entering the EU market – even if the scientific evidence is not yet conclusive.	比如，欧盟长期以来一直秉承“预防原则”，阻止可能危害人类健康的产品进入欧盟市场，即使科学证据尚不足以彻底否定这一产品。


This principle underpins the EU’s refusal to import genetically modified (GM) foods from the US, where they are widely consumed.	这一原则便是欧洲拒绝进口美国转基因食品的基础，而在美国，转基因食品被大量消费。


But senior members of the US Congress have stressed that a successful agreement must include opening the EU market to all US agricultural products. 	但美国国会的不少资深议员施压说，成功的协定必须包括欧盟市场向所有美国农产品开放。


Another potential area of contention – conflicting notions of personal privacy – could inhibit the two sides’ ability to accomplish their shared goal of opening up the digital market.	另一个潜在争论点——关于个人隐私概念的冲突——可能导致双方无法完成开放数字市场这一共同目标。


In recent weeks, major US technology companies, including Google and Facebook, have been accused of aggressively lobbying the European Parliament to suspend plans to intensify privacy rules in the EU.	最近几周以来，包括谷歌和Facebook在内的美国大型技术公司被控大肆游说欧洲议会推迟强化欧盟隐私规则的计划。


A third challenge is rooted in Europe’s deeply held skepticism of financial markets.	第三大挑战在于欧洲对金融市场的深刻疑虑。


The day after US President Barack Obama announced the launch of the TTIP negotiations, the European Commission released its blueprint for a Eurozone Financial Transaction Tax that would impose new costs on US banks operating in EU markets.	美国总统奥巴马宣布开启TTIP谈判的第二天，欧洲委员会发布了一份欧元区金融交易税蓝图，这将为美国银行在欧盟市场上的经营活动造成新的成本。


Other cases in which barriers to transatlantic trade and investment conceal conflicting objectives and deep-rooted attitudes include France’s protection of its cherished audiovisual sector and America’s desire to continue to block European penetration of its iconic airline industry.	跨大西洋贸易和投资壁垒隐瞒了双方互相冲突的目标和有深刻根源的冲突看法的例子还有法国对其无比珍视的视听行业的保护以及美国希望继续阻止欧洲渗透其标志性的航空业。


Negotiators will also have to overcome significant structural obstacles.	谈判者还必须克服不少重大结构性障碍。


As the European Commission struggles to secure a clear negotiating mandate from all 27 member states, the US will face its own internal coordination problems.	欧洲委员会苦苦挣扎着试图确保能够从27个成员国手里获得明确的谈判授权，与此同时，美国也面临着自身的内部协调问题。


European countries succeeded in creating the Single Market in 1992 not by harmonizing all of their standards and regulations, but by agreeing to recognize one another’s.	1992年，欧洲各国成功建立了单一市场，这不仅是因为调和了所有国家的标准和监管，也是因为彼此之间同意互相承认。


If a product is approved for sale in one EU member state, it is considered safe enough to be sold in another.	如果一种产品被获准在一个欧盟成员国销售，那么它就被认为是安全的，可以在其他成员国销售。


A similar policy of “mutual recognition” could be the key to successful US-EU trade negotiations, but only if both parties can overcome the biases that are built into their regulatory and political systems.	类似的“互相承认”政策可以称为美国-欧盟贸易谈判的关键要素，但这得双方克服存在于监管和政治制度中的偏见才行。


Such barriers are particularly pronounced in the US, where Congress oversees the legal framework within which federal regulatory agencies – such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Food and Drug Administration – operate.	这类壁垒在美国尤为明显，美国国会监督着法律框架，而法律框架约束着监管机构——如环境保护署和食品药品管理局——的行为。


Not only do the US administration and its federal agencies have to accept that a safety standard established and tested in Frankfurt or Athens is equivalent to its US counterpart; congressional committees must agree.	不但美国政府以及联邦机构必须同意在法兰克福或雅典建立并接受检验的安全标准在美国同样适用； 其国会委员会也必须如此。


For its part, the EU would have to reconsider, for example, its policy on GM foods.	至于欧盟，它必须重新考虑转基因食品政策等问题。


The EU overcame national biases to establish the Single Market by instituting a process of legally binding qualified majority voting, whereby individual member states could be outvoted on specific regulations.	欧盟之所以能够克服国家偏见建立单一市场，是因为将多数表决规则程序制度化了，个体成员国可以在具体监管规则上因多数票而失败。


But such an approach cannot be replicated to break the inevitable logjams of transatlantic regulatory negotiations.	但这一方法无法复制用来打破不可避免的跨大西洋监管谈判僵局。


Faced with such significant obstacles, it is not surprising that the High-Level Working Group has settled on a more modest measure of success for TTIP negotiations.	障碍如此巨大，高规格工作组在促进TTIP谈判的成功方面畏手畏脚也就不足为奇了。


But this does not negate the partnership’s value.	但这并不能否认这一伙伴关系的价值。


Although transatlantic tariffs average only 3-5% (with higher peaks for some sensitive products), tariff elimination would have a significant impact, given that bilateral trade totals $650 billion annually.	尽管跨大西洋关税平均水平只有3—5%（某些敏感商品会更高一些），但取消关税仍能起到重大作用，因为双边贸易总额高达每年6500亿美元。


Simplifying customs procedures and opening up markets for public procurement could bring further benefits.	简化通关程序、开放公共采购市场可以带来更多好处。


And establishing a formal mechanism for transatlantic regulatory consultation will eventually pay off, one sector at a time.	为跨大西洋监管磋商建立正式机制最终会取得成功，可以一次解决一个部门。


The TTIP that is signed in 2015 may not be the revolutionary and comprehensive agreement for which many observers are hoping. But it remains a crucial step toward a more integrated transatlantic marketplace.	2015年签署的TTIP也许不会像许多观察家所希望的那样成为一个全面的革命性协定，但仍将是通往更加统一的跨大西洋市场的关键一步。


Managing Iraq\u0027s Oil	管理伊拉克的石油


In recent months, Iraq's oil production has grown to more than two million barrels per day.	近几个月，伊拉克单日石油产量已经上升到超过200万桶。


At this rate, current oil output and oil exports now exceed post-invasion predictions.	照此速度，目前的石油产量和出口量都超过了入侵后的预期。


Experts had argued that funding shortages, lack of security, the problems of stabilizing a legitimate government, and technology shortfalls would severely limit Iraq's output.	专家曾认为：资金短缺、缺少安全、稳定合法政府时出现的问题和技术落后会严重限制伊拉克的产油量。


Despite the odds, Iraq's daily output reached a post-invasion record of 2.5 million barrels in March.	尽管有诸多困难，伊拉克石油日产量还是在3月达到了入侵后的最高点－250万桶。


A number of factors enabled Iraq to increase its output.	几个因素使伊拉克产量增加。


Most significantly, the Bush administration gave Iraq $2.3 billion to restore its oil production.	最重要的是，布什政府给了伊拉克23亿美元，用于恢复石油生产。


After the invasion, no one expected Iraq to get loans, let alone outright grants.	入侵后，没人认为伊拉克能得到贷款，更别说百分之百的馈赠了。


Instead, $2.3 billion was invested directly into the Iraqi oil sector.	相反，这23亿美元直接投入了伊拉克的石油产业。


To protect the oil fields and other facilities, the Americans dedicated a massive, overwhelming force of soldiers and private contractors.	为了保护油田和其它设施，美国派出了势不可挡的庞大部队和私有承包商。


The level of protection was unprecedented even compared to Saddam's regime.	即便与萨达姆政权时代相比，受保护的程度也是绝无仅有的。


On the technical side, the Bush administration hired the world's best oil service companies to revamp Iraq's technologically challenged oil fields.	技术方面，布什政府雇佣了全球最出色的石油服务公司，修复伊拉克为技术所困的油井。


They still have a long way to go, but significant improvements are already evident.	尽管还有很多工作要做，但已明显取得了重大的进展。


Moreover, the war didn't change the quality of Iraqi fields, which are still among the richest in the world and can produce oil with relatively little effort and investment.	此外，战争并未改变伊拉克油田的质量，伊拉克仍拥有全球最富饶的石油资源，能够以相对较少的代价和投入生产原油。


Finally, high oil prices in the past 12 months provided an unexpectedly large windfall to the Iraqi budget, allowing for the financing of other sectors without slighting the oil industry.	最后，过去12个月来的高油价让伊拉克政府大发横财，使他们能在不损害石油工业的基础上为其它部门提供资金。


High prices also enabled the Coalition Provisional Authority to add even more private security personnel to protect refineries and pipelines.	高价还使临时管理委员会得以雇佣更多私人保安，保护炼油厂和输油管线。


Granting Iraq the money to restore its oil industry was one of the best post-war decisions that the Bush administration has made.	批准拨给伊拉克资金，恢复原油生产是布什政府最为正确的战后决策。


The money allowed Iraq to begin to address security, production, and technology issues throughout its oil system.	这笔资金让伊拉克得以解决石油体系在安全、生产和技术方面面临的重重困难。


But the question remains: will output growth continue following the transfer of sovereignty to an Iraqi government at the end of June?	但问题依然存在：在6月底向伊拉克政府移交权力后，石油增产的势头还能否继续维持？


Despite massive injections of funds and unprecedented security, insurgents have still managed to halt or reduce oil production and exports several times since the invasion.	入侵后，尽管投入了大笔资金和前所未有的安全力量，叛乱分子还有几次成功破坏或削减了石油的生产和出口。


The bombing of a pipeline or other oil facility somewhere in Iraq remains almost a daily occurrence, and the transfer of power has not reduced these attacks so far.	几乎每天都有伊拉克输油管或其它设施被炸毁，而权力的移交迄今为止还未能遏制这样的攻击。


Like the Bush administration and Saddam himself, the insurgents understand that whoever controls Iraqi oil controls Iraq's destiny.	正如布什政府和萨达姆本人那样，叛乱分子也清楚地知道无论是谁控制了伊拉克的石油，他就能掌握伊拉克的命运。


The new Iraqi government, even supported by US military might, will simply not be able to guarantee a predictable flow of oil, and output will remain quite volatile.	新任的伊拉克政府即便有了美国军事力量的支持，也根本无法确保石油的有序流动，油产量仍然很不稳定。


At the same time, maintaining the flow of funds into the Iraqi oil sector is essential, not only for its growth, but for its very survival.	与此同时，保持伊拉克石油部门的资金流入至关重要，上述前提不仅是对发展而言，对生存本身也莫不如此。


Money brings technological regeneration as well as security.	资金可以带来安全和技术革新。


Under even the best circumstances for Iraq, with oil prices remaining high, the funds available to maintain and modernize the oil industry are limited.	即便保持油价高涨的理想状况，伊拉克石油工业维护和发展的资金也十分有限。


If oil prices decline in the future, the oil industry will suffer severely.	如果未来油价下跌，石油工业就会遭受惨重的损失。


This makes for an interesting relationship between Iraq and Saudi Arabia.	这导致了伊拉克和沙特阿拉伯间的微妙关系。


Only Saudi Arabia can manage the global output of oil in such a way that will make room for Iraqi oil and keep prices high.	只有沙特阿拉伯能控制全球原油产量，为伊拉克营造发展空间，保持油价居高不下。


In contrast, only Saudi Arabia can flood the market and reduce prices far below their current level.	与此相反，也只有沙特阿拉伯能充斥市场，使油价大大低于现有的水平。


A decline in oil revenues could be devastating to the fledgling Iraqi government.	石油收入的下降会给初出茅庐的伊拉克政府带来破坏性影响。


Current oil revenues are barely enough to cover state expenses, let alone pay for reconstruction, debt, and war reparations.	目前的石油收入刚够支付政府开销，更不用说投资重建、偿付债务和战争赔款了。


Even if President Bush wins reelection, it is highly unlikely that the US will make another outright grant to a sovereign Iraq.	即便布什政府再次当选，美国再给伊拉克无偿赠款的可能性也微乎其微。


Theoretically, international loans could be an alternative, but who would lend to an unstable government, let alone a government whose legitimacy has not been fully established?	理论上讲，也可以选择国际贷款，但谁会贷款给不稳定的政府，更不用说其合法性尚未完全确立？


Likewise, privatization is out of the picture for now.	与此相似，私有化在目前情况下也不太可能。


The new government will have to make do and chart a slow path for its oil recovery, just as Saddam's regime did.	新政府必须步萨达姆政权的后尘，找到一条石油复苏的缓慢通道。


At the same time, the logic of renewed American support for the Iraqi oil industry remains powerful.	与此同时，伊拉克石油工业很可能继续获得美国的支持。


Normal financing is not forthcoming. Only grants from the US will reduce output volatility.	正常融资的可能性不大，只有美国的无偿赠款才有可能稳定产量。


Saddam's regime caused most of the volatility in the oil market in the last 30 years.	过去30年来，萨达姆政权炮制了石油市场的多数动荡。


In fact, every peak in oil prices since 1973 was caused by an event related to Iraq.	事实上，1973年来油价的每次高峰都与伊拉克有关。


One would hope that his removal would reduce market volatility and stabilize oil prices.	人们希望他的下台能减少市场动荡、稳定石油价格。


Unfortunately, Iraq appears set to continue to be a major source of high oil prices, owing to highly erratic output.	遗憾的是，由于产量极为不稳，伊拉克似乎仍是高油价的主要来源。


For the foreseeable future, one of the principal outcomes of the invasion of Iraq will be greater volatility and thus higher prices.	在可以预见的未来，入侵伊拉克的主要后果将是石油产量的大幅动荡，以及由此造成的价格上涨。


Managing Risk to Save the Poor	管理风险、拯救穷人


The G-8 finance ministers have agreed to cancel $40 billion of debt owed by eighteen of the world’s poorest countries.	八国财政部长已经达成协议：取消世界八个最贫困国家欠下的400亿美元债务。


This is a triumph for common sense.	按常理来讲，这应该算是件好事。


But, at only $238 per person in the eighteen countries, debt relief alone is hardly enough to help the poor.	但由于上述八国人均只分摊到238美元，仅仅减免债务对贫困人口的帮助还远远不够。


Fortunately, other efforts will complement the developed countries’ increased generosity.	幸运的是，其它努力会对发达国家这种与日俱增的慷慨形成补充。


The most notable is a significant movement towards providing finely focused risk-management services to the poor, which could ultimately prove to be worth far more than $40 billion.	最显而易见的是向贫困国家提供重点突出的风险管理服务蔚然成风，而这种服务的加之也许最终远远不止400亿美元。


We tend to think that new risk-management products, such as novel types of insurance or financial derivatives, will primarily interest the rich, or at least relatively wealthy people.	我们通常认为对像新型保险或金融衍生产品这样的新型风险管理产品感兴趣的主要是富有人群，至少也是那些经济条件相对宽裕的人。


In fact, new risk-management products are being developed for some of the poorest people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.	事实上，我们正在开发适合非洲、亚洲和拉美某些最贫困人口的新型风险管理产品。


It is important to recognize that the world’s poorest people are not the same people from year to year.	认识到世界最贫困的人口在各年度并非一成不变，这一点非常重要。


Good fortune and bad fortune alternate randomly, and the poorest people are particularly vulnerable when misfortune – like a hurricane in a fishing village – strikes.	好运和霉运变化无常，而最贫困的人口在灾难降临，比如飓风席卷渔村的时候显得更加脆弱。


So risk management, by smoothing out bumps in income, can be extremely important in alleviating the effects of poverty.	因此风险管理通过对收入的不确定性加以弥补，在消除贫困方面也许会起到极为重要的作用。


Moreover, if unmanaged, risk destroys the prospect of economic growth.	不仅如此，缺乏管理的风险会毁掉经济发展的前景。


Without risk management, poor people will not experiment with new crops or more productive methods, because any mistake could be disastrous.	如果没有风险管理，贫困人口就不敢尝试种植新型作物或者采用更有效的方法，因为任何失误带来的后果都将是灾难性的。


For example, in subsistence rural areas, a bad harvest may lead to starvation before the next year’s crop is in.	举例来讲，在仅能勉强糊口的农村地区，收成不好可能会在来年的粮食收获前就造成饥荒。


More typically, it leads “merely” to a sudden collapse in the economic base, leading to years of hardship in the future.	更有甚者，收成不好可能干脆导致经济基础的轰然坍塌，带来未来持续多年的贫困。


If a poor family in subsistence farming receives no help during the year after a bad harvest, its members may eat their beasts of burden, cut down the trees that provide nutrients to the soil, sell whatever farming equipment they have, and even eat the seeds that were set aside for planting the following season.	如果以种粮为生的家庭在收成不好的年份得不到帮助，家庭成员就会吃掉自己家里的驮畜、砍掉为土壤提供养分的树木、卖掉自家所有的农具、甚至吃掉准备来年种植的种子。


Providing money when it is needed is essential.	在紧急时刻提供援助真的至关重要。


Unfortunately, according to Joanna Syroka of the World Bank’s Commodity Risk Management Group, official foreign aid and private charity tends to arrive too late, often after starvation has actually begun, and long after the families have taken extreme measures, consuming their capital to survive.	不幸的是，据世行日用产品风险管理小组的乔安娜·赛罗卡介绍，国外官方援助和私人善款的到达通常都会太晚，这些援助常常是在饥荒已经开始以后才起作用。 善款到来之前，各家各户早已采取了极端措施，把生存资本消耗殆尽。


While the aid may keep them alive, they are left economically paralyzed for years to come.	尽管援助会延续他们的生命，但他们在未来几年内都无法摆脱经济上的贫困。


Syroka and her colleagues are striving to promote the use of modern financial technology to make sure that aid arrives in time – and in sufficient volume – to avert such outcomes.	赛罗卡及其同事努力推广使用现代金融科技，确保援助能够足额及时抵达，以避免产生这样的后果。


The old tool for managing farmers’ risks is crop insurance, which responds directly to the failure of a crop.	控制农业风险的已有工具是作物保险，它对作物减产直接做出反应。


But crop insurance suffers from what economists call a “moral hazard,” because it reduces farmers’ incentives to ensure the crop’s success.	但作物保险受到经济学家所谓“道德风险”的影响，因为它削弱了农民确保作物丰产的积极性。


The farmer may neglect the crop or refuse to invest in saving a failing crop if he knows that a payout is forthcoming.	如果农民知道反正能得到补偿，他就可能不精心照管自己种植的作物，或者拒绝对收成不好的作物投资进行补救。


The farmer may even plant a crop that he knows will fail.	农民甚至可能成心种植收成不好的作物。


This is why private crop insurers are in short supply, and why crop insurance often requires expensive government subsidies.	这解释了为什么私有作物险非常罕见，而作物保险通常需要大量政府补贴的原因。


But insurance technology is improving, aided by improved information technology.	但随着信息技术的不断发展，保险技术也不断改善。


The moral hazard implicit in crop insurance can be addressed by making payouts depend not on the actual crop failure but on the bad weather that caused it.	我们可以通���对造成农业减产的坏天气而不是实际的作物减产进行保险来解决作物险固有的道德问题。


Since the farmer cannot influence the weather, there is no moral hazard.	因为农民无法影响天气，也就不存在道德风险的问题。


In the past, weather insurance could not manage a farmer’s risk effectively because we could not measure well enough the effects of weather on crops.	过去，天气险无法有效地管理农民的风险，因为我们无法很好地测量天气对农作物产生的影响。


For insurance to be effective as a risk-management device, weather must be measured at a finely-detailed local level, and the correct measurements must be taken at the correct time.	如果想让保险成为有效的风险管理工具，那么就必须在小范围内对天气进行非常细致的测量，并在恰当的时间采取恰当的措施。


Crops are especially vulnerable at certain times, for example, when seeds begin germinating or when bad weather the previous year puts perennials at risk.	农作物在特定的时间极易受到破坏，比如种子发芽或前一年的坏天气对多年生植物造成威胁的时候。


Today, weather insurance uses an expanded number of sophisticated weather stations and deep knowledge of the science of agriculture to measure weather’s effects on local agriculture.	今天，天气险采用了很多先进气象站提供的数据和农业科学领域更深入的知识对天气对本地农业的影响进行测量。


Different crops are affected differently, and weather insurance must take account of a farm’s various crops and when they were planted – complexities that modern information technology can solve.	不同作物受到的影响不同，而天气险必须考虑到农场的多种作物以及它们的种植时间－上述复杂状况可以依靠现代的信息技术来加以解决。


Many companies are already involved in offering improved weather insurance to poor farmers, with notable successes from ICICI Lombard and BASIX in India, and from the International Finance Corporation and the insurance company Credo Classic in Ukraine.	很多公司已经在为贫困农民提供改良后的天气险产品，其中尤以印度的ICICI Lombard和BASIX、以及乌克兰的Credo Classic国际金融和保险公司运作最为成功。


Similar work is underway in Africa, led by the World Bank and in Central America various countries’ governments are collaborating with the Inter-American Development Bank and the Central American Bank for Economic Integration.	由世界银行领导的类似工作也正在非洲展开，而在中美洲，各国政府也正在和美洲间发展银行和中美洲经济一体化银行进行合作。


The number of agencies and governments involved in the movement towards sophisticated risks management for the poor is inspiring.	越来越多的政府和机构参与到为贫困人口提供先进的风险管理中来，这一趋势的确令人欢欣鼓舞。


At the same time, the application of risk-management technology, insurance, and finance requires little of stretched foreign-aid budgets: a relatively small number of office workers, cell phones, and computers.	与此同时，风险管理技术、保险和融资的应用并没有给国外援助计划增加负担：它们只需要数量相对较少的工作人员、手机和电脑。


With the ongoing revolution in information and communications technology, the phones and computers will cost less and less, even as the costs of many commodities needed for development grow.	随着信息和通讯技术的不断革命，即便发展所需的很多商品成本会不断上涨，但电话和电脑所需的成本却会越来越低。


Jeffrey Sachs’s new book The End of Poverty argues that with proper help from advanced countries the world could see the end of poverty as we know it in coming decades, prompting some to describe him as a starry-eyed idealist.	杰弗里·萨克斯在他的新书《结束贫困》中提出：如果发达国家给予恰当的帮助，世界就会像我们期待的那样在未来几十年内彻底消除贫困，他的这种观点使很多人把他当成了过分乐观的理想主义者。


But if we take account of both the increased generosity of rich nations and the application of improved financial and insurance technology, he just might be right.	但如果考虑到富裕国家与日俱增的慷慨和改良后金融和保险技术的应用，他所描绘的前景也许并非是空中楼阁。


Managing the Earth	管理地球


Sometime in the next twenty years, the relationship between human beings and the natural world is going to change, profoundly and forever.	在未来二十年之中，人类和自然界的关系会深刻而永久地改变。


It won't happen suddenly, but current scientific developments will make change inevitable.	这种改变不会突然发生，但现时的科技发展会使它无法避免。


Like it or not, ready or not, these scientific developments are putting us on the road to becoming the managers of the global ecosystem, rather than just a participant in it.	不论我们是否愿意，也不论我们是否做好了准备，这些科技发展会使我们逐渐成为全球生态系统的管理者而不仅仅是参与者。


I like to think about this coming revolution in historical terms.	我想从历史的角度思考这一场日渐临近的革命。


For most of the three and a half million years that beings we might call "human" have walked the Earth, they were unambiguously part of the natural system.	在那种被称作"人"的生物在地球上活动的350万年的绝大部分时间里，他们就一直是自然系统的一部分。


The iron laws of evolution governed their survival, and those who couldn't compete died early and were soon forgotten.	严酷的进化法则管理着他们的生存，生存能力弱的人早逝，并很快被遗忘。


Our only defenses against a hostile world were primitive stone tools and fire - a minimal kind of protection at best.	我们面对地对世界的唯一防卫就是原始的石器和火-最多也只是一种极有限的保护。


Then, about 10,000 years ago, something extraordinary happened.	而在约一万年前，不同寻常的事情发生了。


Somewhere in the Taurus mountains in what is now Turkey, a group of people, probably women, began to develop a new set of technologies that would change the way that human beings interacted with their environment.	在Taurus山脉的某处，即今天的土耳其，有一群人，很可能是妇女，开始发展一套新的技术。 这些技术会改变人类与其所在环境之间的互动关系。


We call these technologies "agriculture," and, for the first time, they gave human beings the power to move outside the laws of natural selection.	我们将其称为"农业"。 它们第一次给予了人类摆脱自然选择的力量。


No longer would our ancestors have to content themselves with the food that nature offered - they could start to grow their own, far surpassing nature's meager supply.	我们的祖先不用再满足于自然界所赐予的食物-他们可以开始种植自己的食物，其产量要比自然界吝啬的供给大得多。


Since the birth of agriculture, human history has been a steady progression of further liberation from the restraints of nature.	自从农业诞生以来，人类的历史就成为一段持续从大自然的桎梏中解脱出来的历史。


Instead of generating power using human and animal muscles, we developed machines that could liberate sunlight stored in coal and oil.	我们发明了能将储存在煤和石油里的太阳能释放出来的机器，从而不用再依靠人体和动物的肌肉产生力量。


Instead of relying on natural defenses against diseases, we developed antibiotics and the other tools of modern medicine.	我们研制出了抗生素和其它现代医药工具从而不用仅仅依靠自然抵抗力防御疾病。


The result is that human beings are no longer really a part of nature - the survival of our species no longer depends on our ability to compete in the Darwinian jungle.	其结果是人类不再是自然界真正意义上的一部分-我们的物种生存不再依靠我们在达尔文的丛林里竞争的能力。


We depend on our social structure and technology, rather than on our genes.	我们所依靠的是社会结构和技术而不是我们的基因。


Today, we are poised to take another giant step, one that will bring us back into the natural system of our planet rather than remove us farther from it.	现在，我们正准备迈出另外一大步。 这一步将会把我们重新带回自然系统而不是离它更远。


For the first time in history, we are starting to understand how the living things around us work, how all the pieces fit together.	在历史上，我们第一次开始了解周围的生物的生存之道及大自然的不同部分是如相互联系的。


Some of these advances are theoretical, allowing us to build computer models of complex systems like continent-wide forests or entire oceans.	这些科技进步中的一部分是理论层面上的。 这使我们能够为诸如洲际范围的森林或整个海洋一类的复杂系统建立计算机模型。


Others are more mundane, involving long-term experiments and observation of smaller ecosystems, such as plots of prairie grass or swamplands.	另外一些则更为现实和具体，包括了对草原和沼泽地一类的较小型生态系统的长期试验和观察。


Finally, of course, we have the spectacular advances in our knowledge of genomics, the science that lets us understand the basic mechanisms that operate inside all living systems, including humans.	当然，最后我们还在基因组学的领域取得了重大进展。 这是一门让我们了解包括人类在内的所有生命系统内部运作的基本原理的科学。


Together these new areas of science will allow us to manage the ecosystems on our planet, predicting the effects of human interventions, anticipating the flow of natural cycles.	结合这些科学的新领域，我们就能管理地球上的生态系统，预见人类干预对自然界的影响，并预测自然界的周期性循环。


We truly have the power to become the managers of planet Earth.	我们确实拥有成为地球管理者的力量。


This is not a responsibility we can shirk.	这是我们不可推卸的责任。


The analogy I like to use involves the homely example of caring for a suburban lawn.	我想用对私家草坪的护理来做一个类比。


You can decide to mow the grass, in which case you produce one kind of ecosystem, one kind of future.	你可以决定修剪草坪，在此情况下你就创建了一个生态系统，一种未来。


Or you can decide not to mow the grass, in which case you produce another kind of ecosystem, another kind of future.	或者你也可以决定不修剪草坪，并由此创建另一个生态系统和另一种未来。


Either way, your actions determine what happens to the lawn.	在任何一个决定下，你的行为都直接关系到草坪的未来。


The one thing you cannot do is fail to decide.	你不能够无所适从。


No matter what you do, even if you decide to do nothing, the future of the lawn depends on you.	不论你做什么，即使你决定无所作为，草坪的未来还是有赖于你的行动。


In fact, our relation to the planet will be like that of a gardener to a garden.	事实上，我们与地球的关系就会变得像园丁与花园的关系。


The gardener doesn't destroy his plants indiscriminately, but he does regularly pull up weeds.	园丁不会不分青红皂白地毁坏植物，但他会定期地拔除杂草。


The gardener doesn't "conquer" his or her plants, but studies them to produce the garden that is desired.	园丁不会"征服"他或她的植物，而是会研究它们以建造自己中意的花园。


Most importantly, the gardener does not manage the garden for the sake of the plants, but for some other goal - to raise food, produce flowers, or just to look pretty.	最重要的是，园丁并不是为了植物而管理花园，而是为了其它目的-获取食物、种植花草或仅仅是让花园看上去漂亮。


In the same way, human beings are on the brink of being able to manage the planet, and the decisions we make will determine what the future of the planet will be.	同样，人类即将能够管理地球，我们所作的决策会决定地球的未来。


Given the phenomenal rate at which science advances these days, it is not too early to start thinking about how we are going to handle this awesome new responsibility.	鉴于现代科技的飞速发展，我们应该从现在就开始思考如何履行这份非同寻常的新责任。


Managing the Politics of Water	水资源管理的政治


AMMAN – This year’s World Water Day, on March 22, provides an opportunity to highlight what in many countries has become a grim reality: The availability of fresh water is increasingly a defining strategic factor in regional and global affairs.	安曼——今年3月22日的世界水日有机会凸显出许多国家所面临的严峻现实：淡水供应已日益成为地区和全球事务中一种决定性的战略因素。


Unless water resources are managed with extraordinary care, the consequences could be devastating.	除非对水资源实行极度审慎的管理，否则造成的后果可能具有灾难性。


Last year, the United Nations World Water Development Report once again highlighted how the growing gap between supply and demand could create conflict.	去年，联合国世界水资源开发报告再次强调了供给和需求间日趋增大的矛盾可能如何引发争端。


The World Economic Forum has ranked water crises as the most worrying global threat, more dangerous than terrorist attacks or financial meltdowns, and more likely to occur than the use of weapons of mass destruction.	世界经济论坛已将水资源危机列为最令人担忧的全球威胁，比大规模杀伤性武器的使用更有可能发生，而且比恐怖袭击或金融崩溃更加危险。


And research by the Strategic Foresight Group has shown the importance of wise management: Countries engaged in the joint stewardship of water resources are exceedingly unlikely to go to war.	战略前瞻组织的研究已经表明了实施智慧管理的重要性：联合进行水资源管理的国家间极其不可能发生战争。


The Middle East serves as a tragic example of what can happen when regional cooperation is lacking.	缺乏地区合作的悲惨实例莫过于中东。


Iraq, Syria, and Turkey have fought over every cubic meter of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.	伊拉克、叙利亚和土耳其奋力争夺底格里斯河和幼发拉底河每一立方米的水源。


All have lost as a result.	结果是所有各方均遭受了损失。


Non-state actors control important parts of the two river basins.	非国家组织控制着两河流域的重要部分。


And water shortages have aggravated the region’s refugee crisis (itself the apotheosis of poor governance).	水资源短缺已导致该地区难民危机进一步恶化（其实这场危机本身就是管理不善的典范）。


The bitterest part of the tragedy is that it could have been avoided.	最令人痛苦的是这场悲剧本来可以避免。


In 2010, at the West Asia-North Africa Forum in Amman, we proposed the creation of “circles of cooperation,” which would have institutionalized collaboration among Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey on water and environmental issues.	2010年，在安曼举行的西亚北非论坛上，我们曾提出创建本来可以实现伊拉克、约旦、黎巴嫩、叙利亚和土耳其之间水资源和环境管理合作制度化的“合作圈” 。


A similar arrangement would have helped manage environmental resources shared by Jordan, Israel, and Palestine.	类似的安排本来可以有助于管理约旦、以色列和巴勒斯坦共享的环境资源。


If a supranational organization had been created, it could have introduced joint strategies to manage drought, coordinate crop patterns, develop common standards to monitor river flows, and implement investment plans to create livelihoods and develop water-treatment technologies.	如果当时这个超国家机构得以建立，该机构应该已经引入了干旱管理和协调农作物模式的联合战略，制定了共同监测河流流量的标准，并实施了创造就业机会的投资计划以及研发了水处理技术。


Other regions have done exactly that.	这一目标在其他地区恰恰已经实现。


Countries sharing rivers in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America have recognized that national interests and regional stability can be mutually reinforcing if human needs are given priority over chauvinism.	共享河流的非洲、南亚和拉美国家已经认识到如果多关注人类需求、少考虑沙文主义，国家利益和地区稳定其实可以相辅相成。


Last fall, the international community adopted the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, which promise to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.”	去年秋天，国际社会通过了承诺“让所有人持续拥有水资源和卫生管理的”联合国可持续发展目标。


Part of this pledge is a commitment to “expand international cooperation.”	该承诺的部分内容是致力于“扩大国际合作”。


Those in charge of implementing this commitment must bear in mind that water cooperation is not merely about signing treaties and holding meetings.	那些负责落实这项承诺的人必须牢记水资源管理合作绝不仅仅是签署条约和举行会议。


It also entails jointly planning infrastructure projects, managing floods and droughts, developing an integrated strategy to combat climate change, ensuring the quality of water courses, and holding regular summits to negotiate tradeoffs between water and other public goods.	它还需要共同策划基础设施项目、实行洪涝管理、制定应对气候变化的综合战略、确保水资源质量以及定期举行就水资源及其他公共产品进行权衡和协商的首脑会议。


The Water Cooperation Quotient, a measure of collaboration created by the Strategic Foresight Group, can help countries sharing river basins and lakes monitor the intensity of their cooperation.	由战略前瞻组织创建的“水资源合作份额”机制可以协助共享河流流域及湖泊的国家对相互间的合作力度进行管理。


Out of 263 shared river basins, only a quarter benefit from properly functioning collaborative organizations.	在共享河流流域的263个国家中，仅有1/4受益于正常的机构协作。


It is crucial that such organizations be extended to cover every shared river basin in the world by the SDGs’ target year, 2030.	拓展上述机构从而实现到可持续发展目标年（2030年）对全球一切共享河流流域的全覆盖是未来非常重要的目标。


For poor people in the developing world, such transboundary cooperation generates significant dividends.	发展中国家的贫困民众可以从上述跨界合作中享受到显著的红利。


When countries agree on the construction and management of critical infrastructure, there are no delays.	各国一旦就关键基础设施的建设和管理达成一致，他们的延误将会停止。


Costs are saved. Benefits are shared in an optimum way.	他们能够节约成本，并以最佳方式分享由此带来的好处。


If all developing countries with shared river basins embraced transboundary cooperation, their GDP growth easily could rise by a percentage point.	如果所有共享河流流域的发展中国家都能实施跨界合作，就可以轻易提高GDP增长一个百分点。


The international community should encourage countries to embrace such cooperation by creating financial instruments that make concessional and preferential funds available.	国际社会应通过提供减让及优惠资金的金融工具鼓励各国进行这样的合作。


A global Marshall Plan for shared river basins might at first seem like an expensive proposition; but the cost of inaction – consider the threat to Europe alone posed by massive refugee inflows – easily could be several orders of magnitude higher.	共享河流流域的全球马歇尔计划乍看上去可能耗资巨大； 但考虑到仅大规模难民流入一项对欧洲所造成的威胁，不作为的代价可能轻易达到几个数量级以上。


Likewise, the international community should act promptly to save critical water infrastructure from acts of violence and terrorism.	同样，国际社会应立即采取行动保护关键水利基础设施免遭暴力和恐怖行为的破坏。


Many rivers, including the Tigris and the Euphrates, have been and continue to be cradles of human civilization.	许多河流，包括底格里斯河和幼发拉底河在内，过去曾经并且今后仍将是人类文明的摇篮。


The UN should consider creating special peacekeeping forces to protect them.	联合国应考虑建立专门的维和部队对其进行保护。


Finally, international law should be designed to prevent, not just resolve, conflicts.	最后，制定国际法的宗旨应当是预防、而非单纯地解决冲突。


In particular, a robust global treaty is needed to regulate emissions into bodies of water.	尤其是必须签署强有力的全球条约以规范进入水体的排放。


Today, most disagreements over water concern the quantity parties are to receive.	今天，因为水资源引发的多数纠纷还仅仅涉及到各方所得到的数量。


In the future, conflicts will increasingly be about water quality, as irrigation practices, industrialization, and urbanization contribute to rising pollution levels.	而未来，随着灌溉、工业化及城市化造成的污染水平上升，水资源质量纠纷所占的比重将越来越大。


World Water Day is the ideal occasion to launch a new agenda for water wisdom.	世界水日将是推出水资源智慧管理新议程的理想场所。


But every day must be a day when we work together to manage one of the planet’s most important resources.	但我们必须日复一日通力合作，才能完成好对我们这个星球最重要的资源之一进行管理的任务。


Getting Cities Right	让城市走上正轨


WASHINGTON, DC – The developing world is experiencing rapid urbanization, with the number of city dwellers set to reach four billion in 2030 – double its 2000 level.	华盛顿——发展中国家正经历快速城市化， 2030年城市居民数将达40亿，在2000年基础上实现翻番。


But unplanned and uncoordinated urban development is risky, threatening to replace migrants’ hopes for a better life with unsanitary living conditions, joblessness, and high exposure to natural disasters.	但缺乏规划协调的城市发展危险很大，有可能打碎新移民对未来生活的美好憧憬，而代之以生活条件脏乱、失业、易受自然灾害影响。


In many respects, urbanization is rational.	城市化在诸多方面自有其合理性。


After all, cities are the hubs of prosperity, where more than 80% of global economic activity is concentrated.	毕竟，城市是全球80%以上经济活动的聚集地，也是繁荣的枢纽。


And their density facilitates the delivery of public services, including education, health care, and basic services.	集中人口密度有利于提供教育、医疗和基础服务等公共服务。 事实上，市区供应自来水的成本仅为每立方米0.


Indeed, it costs $0.70-0.80 per cubic meter to provide piped water in urban areas, compared to $2 in sparsely populated areas.	70-0. 80美元，比人烟稀少地区的2美元能节约不少开销。


But the high concentration of assets and people, especially in coastal areas, is an economic liability, with around $3 trillion in assets at risk from natural hazards.	但尤其沿海地区资产及人员的高度集中却成为一种经济负担，约3万亿资产都受到自然灾害的威胁。


Vulnerability will increase further over the next two decades, as cities triple their built-up land, to 600,000 square kilometers, often without basic infrastructure or policies to prevent construction and settlement on disaster-prone and vulnerable sites.	如果城市今后二十年建设用地增加三倍（至60万平方公里）漏洞也必将进一步增加，因为往往缺乏基本的基础设施或政策防止在灾害频发的危险地带建设并定居。


To get urbanization right, policymakers must take urgent action to build sustainable cities.	要让城市化走上正轨，决策者必须紧急行动建设可持续发展城市。


Through effective land-use management, they can provide reliable and affordable access to basic services, education, housing, transport, and health care to growing urban populations, while minimizing the carbon footprint.	他们可以借有效的土地使用管理让日益增长的城市人口以低廉的价格享受教育、住房和医疗等基础服务，同时将碳排放降至最低。


This entails, first and foremost, abandoning the perception of a tradeoff between “building more cities” to accommodate rapid urban growth and “building cities right” to enhance social and environmental outcomes.	这首先要摒弃在“建设更多城市”以适应快速城市发展和“合理建设城市”以提升社会环境效益之间不停地折衷权衡的思路。


In fact, evidence shows that building cities right generates near-term benefits, while reducing the longer-term costs associated with sprawl, congestion, pollution, and climate change.	事实上，有证据表明以合理方式建设城市既能产生短期效益，也能降低与扩张、拥堵、污染和气候变化等相关的长期成本。


The alternative – building cities around a low-density, individual-vehicle transportation model – will leave urban planners struggling to increase density and develop public-transport systems later, a challenge that the United States is currently facing.	替代低密度个人车辆运输模型迫使城市规划者今后拼命增大密度并发展公交系统，这就是美国目前正在面对的挑战。


A new World Bank report provides a practical agenda for building sustainable cities.	新世行报告规定了建设可持续发展城市的实际日程表。


The framework – which emerged from a three-year effort to develop a foundation of credible facts and analysis from countries with diverse urban experiences, such as Uganda, China, India, and South Korea – can help policymakers to understand the obstacles to urbanization and to identify politically, technically, and fiscally feasible policy options.	三年来从分析乌干达、中国、印度和韩国等不同国家城市化的现实和经验中总结出来的框架可以帮助决策者理解城市化道路上有哪些障碍，并找到政治、技术和财政领域可行的政策选择。


This framework reflects three main aspects of urban development: planning, connecting, and financing.	上述框架反应了规划、联系和融资等城市发展的三个主要方面。


A major finding is that, regardless of the level or speed of urbanization, planning for land-use management should be the top priority.	人们认识到无论城市化的水平和速度如何，规划土地的使用管理都应当成为首要任务。


By clearly defining property rights and implementing effective land-use systems that are coordinated with infrastructure, particularly transport, policymakers can help cities to attract private investment, connect people with jobs, reduce environmental and social risks, and decrease vulnerability to natural hazards.	通过明确产权并落实与基础设施（特别是交通设施）相适应的有效土地使用制度，决策者即可协助城市吸引私人投资、联系人员及就业岗位、降低环境社会风险，并增强自然灾害的抵御能力。


With urban growth in developing countries likely to occur largely in secondary cities, the opportunity is still open (but closing fast) to shape urban design to ensure that, for example, residents do not spend half of each day commuting to and from work.	鉴于发展中国家城市化可能主要集中在二线城市，因此尽管机会稍纵即逝，但我们仍可以打造一种城市设计，防止居民每天要花半天时间上下班。


While no single model for managing rapid urbanization exists, positive examples offer some guidance.	尽管不存在统一的快速城市化管理模式，但成功的例子却能给我们一些启示。


For example, Seoul’s population more than tripled from 1960 to 2000.	举例来讲，1960年至2000年间首尔的人口增长超过三倍。


South Korean policymakers, anticipating the challenges, strengthened institutions for valuing and pricing land, trained a cadre of appraisers to ensure transparency in the valuation process, and publicly disseminated land-value information.	韩国决策者预见到随之而来的挑战，着力强化土地评估定价机制，培养评估干部确保评估透明度，并公开土地评估信息。


At the same time, the government supported construction of high-rise residential buildings capable of housing the growing urban population and developed multiple transport modes, including highways, rail networks, and subway lines, which have helped to connect people with employment opportunities within and among cities.	同时，政府支持建设高层住宅建筑容纳不断增长的城市人口，并发展高速路、轨道交通及地铁等多样化的交通模式。 立体交通网为市民提供了市内和城市间的就业机会。


Likewise, leaders in Singapore and Japan treated public transport as a crucial aspect of land-use plans.	同样，新加坡及日本领导人将公交视为土地利用计划的重要方面。


As a result, they boast some of the world’s lowest energy consumption as a share of GDP.	因此新加坡和日本能耗占国内生产总值的比例低于世界其他国家。


In order to encourage citizens to use public transport, policymakers in Tokyo reduced subsidies for private cars, so that driving one became five times costlier than using public transport.	为鼓励市民利用公交，东京的决策者降低了私家车补贴，导致开私家车成本是公交的五倍还多。


Complementary investment in high-speed inter-city transport has reduced travel times between Japan’s two largest agglomerations, Tokyo and Osaka, which are 314 miles apart, to less than two and a half hours, thus integrating labor and housing markets and enhancing productivity.	投资高速城际交通将距离314英里的东京和大阪这两座日本最大城市群的往返行程缩短到两个半小时以内，从而统一了劳动力和住房市场、提高了生产率。


Of course, financing rapid urban development requires significant capital outlays to build efficient systems for transport, water provision, solid waste management, and sewage removal and treatment.	当然，支持快速城市发展需要大量的资本支出，以建设高效的运输、供水、固体废物管理、污水排放和处理系统。


But, as these investments bolster economic growth, increased tax revenues would imply more sustainable financing, as would local governments’ ability to leverage land markets and approach local-currency debt markets.	但随着基础设施投资促进经济增长，由此增加的税收有可能提供长期资金，地方政府利用土地和本币债券市场的能力也将随之提高。


In Mumbai, the auction of 13 hectares of land in the new financial center, the Bandra-Kurla Complex, generated $1.2 billion. This amounts to more than ten times the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority’s total expenditure in 2005, and six times the total value of municipal bonds issued by all local governments and utilities in India in more than a decade.	孟买新金融中心班德拉库拉综合区（Bandra-Kurla Complex）13公顷的土地拍卖创收12亿美元，相当于印度10多年来所有地方政府及公用事业发行市政债券总值的6倍，以及孟买大都会区发展局2005年总支出的十倍以上。


Similarly, in Istanbul, the auction of an old bus station and government building in 2007 generated $1.5 billion – more than the city’s total expenditures and infrastructure investments in 2005.	同样，在伊斯坦布尔，2007年老旧汽车站及政府大楼的拍卖创收15亿美元——超过该市2005年的基础设施投资总额。


And Colombia’s finance ministry has developed Findeter, a bond bank that finances regional urban infrastructure projects by providing resources to financial intermediaries that allocate them to subnational authorities.	哥伦比亚财政部已成立Findeter银行资助城市基础设施项目，该行向金融中介提供资源，再由中介拨付给地方政府。


By building sustainable cities, policymakers can support social and economic development, while minimizing environmental damage.	通过构建可持续发展城市，决策者可以支持社会经济发展，同时最大限度地减少环境损失。


Managing urbanization as it occurs, rather than struggling to fix cities later, is an opportunity that developing-country leaders should not miss.	在城市化的同时加强管理而避免事后亡羊补牢是发展中国家领导人不应错过的机遇。


We, the Corporations?	我们公司？


CHICAGO – You would think that 600,000 comments on a petition would be sufficient to bring an issue to the top of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s agenda.	芝加哥—你大概以为，有60万评论的请愿书足以让一个问题成为美国证券和交易委员会（SEC）日程的优先项。


But public opinion does not seem to matter if the issue is mandatory disclosure of political spending by corporations.	但如果这个问题是要强制披露公司政治支出的话，公共舆论似乎起不了作用。


Denying rumors that such a rule will be promulgated soon, SEC Chair Mary Jo White recently told lawmakers that this issue is not at the top of her list of priorities.	SEC主席怀特（Mary Jo White）否认了关于该规则马上会被实施的传闻，她最近对律师说，这个问题并不在最优先事项名单中。


But it is at the forefront of the Republican Party’s concerns, reflecting its leaders’ determination to prevent any such requirement from taking effect.	但它是共和党关注问题的核心，反映出该党领袖阻止类似要求出台的决心。


In April, Ann Wagner, a Republican congresswoman, introduced a bill “to prohibit the Securities and Exchange Commission from issuing rules requiring the disclosure of an issuer’s expenditures for political activities.”	4月，共和党议员瓦格纳（Ann Wagner）引入了一个法案“以禁止证券和交易委员会发布要求披露发行者政治活动支出的规则。 ”


The reason why such an apparently minor issue is gaining so much attention is that it transcends corporate governance and goes to the very essence of America’s democratic system.	这样一个显然是次要的问题占据了如此多的注意力，其原因在于它超越了公司治理，直指美国民主制度的核心。


For this reason, it is important to understand what is at stake.	处于这一原因，明白它的牵涉范围是很重要的。


Freedom of expression is a core democratic principle.	言论自由是一项核心民主原则。


Integral to this freedom is the right to spend money to disseminate speech.	对这一自由来说，不可或缺的是花钱散播言论的权利。


Any limitation on spending is a limitation on freedom of speech itself.	任何对这项支出的限制都是在限制言论自由本身。


But is this right limited to individuals or does it extend also to associations of individuals?	但其正确性只局限于个人，还是可以扩展到由个人组成的团体？


In a controversial decision issued in 2010 – Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission – the US Supreme Court ruled that the First Amendment of the US Constitution also protects the free-speech rights of associations of individuals.	在2010年公民联盟诉联邦选举委员会案中（Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission），美国最高法院判决美国宪法第一修正案同样保护由个人组成的团体的言论自由。


Thus, corporations, as associations of individuals, have the right to spend as much as they want to disseminate their views, including in support of electoral campaigns.	因此，公司作为由个人组成的团体有权利随心所欲地花钱，只要它们想传播它们的观点，包括支持选举阵营的观点。


Whether you like the political consequences of the Citizens United decision or not, it has its own logic.	不管你是否喜欢公民联盟案判决的政治后果，它都有其自身逻辑。


And that logic applies outside of the United States as well, and can lead to similar consequences everywhere: an enormous increase in the largest corporations’ political power.	这一逻辑在美国之外也适用，并且可能在所有地方产生相似的效果：最大公司政治实力的猛增。


Will parliamentarians become mere spokesmen of corporate interests?	议会会沦为公司利益的发言人吗？


Is there any mechanism within the US Constitution, or other constitutions, to prevent this?	美国或其他国家宪法有防止这一幕发生的机制吗？


A logical implication of the view that corporations are “people” is that shareholders should learn about the political spending carried out by the companies in which they invest.	公司是“人民”，这一观点的一个逻辑影响是股东应该获知他们所投资的公司所作出的政治支出。


Disclosure may help democratize political donations, preventing them from having an undue influence in elections.	披露可以有助于民主化政治捐助，防止它们在选举中起到过度影响。


If I appoint an agent to manage my money, shouldn’t I want to know how much he spends on political donations in my (alleged) interest?	如果我任命一个代理人来管理我的钱，难道我不应该想知道他花了多少用于支持我（据称的）利益的政治捐助吗？


And wouldn’t it be preposterous for any rule or regulation to prevent me from finding out?	阻止我了解这一点的任何法规难道不都是荒谬可笑的吗？


But this is exactly what is happening.	但这正是现在所发生的事情。


Not only do companies refuse to disclose to their shareholders how much they spend on political campaigns; they also are lobbying hard to prevent any rule that would require them to do so.	公司不但拒绝向股东披露花了多少钱用于政治活动； 还大力游说阻挠任何要求他们这样做的法规出台。


The US Chamber of Commerce opposes all such proposed rules as “politically motivated,” because the pressure to require disclosure of election-related corporate spending does not come from institutional investors, but from government pension funds controlled by elected officials.	美国商会反对所有此类“有政治动机的”法规议案，因为要求披露选举相关公司支出的压力并不来自机构投资者，而是来自当选官员控制的政府养老基金。


But conservative groups are shortsighted in their opposition to mandatory disclosure of such information.	但保守主义团体反对强制披露此类信息是短视的。


They believe that it would weaken Republicans and benefit Democrats, and they are right: there is no doubt that the left stands to gain more in the short term from such a requirement.	它们认为这会削弱共和党，有利民主党，这倒不错：毫无疑问，短期看左派会从这一要求中获利。


But the biggest winner would be democracy.	但最大的赢家是民主。


The current political game in the US is one in which both Republicans and Democrats compete for corporate money, which they then deploy in expensive campaigns to preserve or increase their power.	当前的美国政治游戏是共和党和民主党竞争公司献金，然后把钱用于昂贵的选战以捍卫或增加它们的权力。


The winners are not the Republicans or the Democrats, or even the companies that fund them.	赢家不是共和党或民主党，甚至也不是向它们献金的公司。


The winner is a corrupt form of capitalism that is undermining the US economy, making it less productive and undermining people’s sense of fairness.	赢家是腐败形式的资本主义，这种资本主义支撑着美国经济，让它变得生产率底下，也破坏了人民对公平感。


I doubt that a mandatory disclosure rule alone could fix the problem.	我认为单靠强制性披露规则未必足以纠正这一问题。


But it would be an important step in the right direction.	但这是迈向正确方向的重要一步。


More important, actively blocking that step forces the political system toward a precipice from which democracy cannot return.	更重要的是，积极阻挠这一步会破事政治制度迈向民主无法回头的绝境。


The Unbearable Lightness of BMI	体重指数不可承受之轻


KIEL – Now is the time of year when many people most dread stepping onto the bathroom scale.	基尔——现在到了一年里许多人最怕踏上浴室称的时刻。


But, while all of that holiday feasting may have led to greater girth, how should we understand what higher or lower body weight means?	不过尽管所有的节日盛宴可能导致了更粗的腰围，我们究竟该如何理解体重指数的高低意味着什么？


The body mass index (BMI) has long been used in epidemiology, medicine, and nutritional sciences.	体重指数（BMI）一直在流行病学、医学和营养学领域有着广泛的应用。


But its value is increasingly being questioned, especially in obesity research, where body-composition measurements are proving to be far more relevant.	但其价值却越来越受到质疑，特别是在肥胖研究领域，身体成分测定正变得越来越重要。


The BMI is calculated by dividing a person’s body weight in kilograms by the square of his height in meters (kg/m2).	体重指数的计算是用某人的体重（以公斤为单位）除以其身高（以米为单位）的平方（kg/m2）。


First named after the Belgian astronomer, mathematician, and statistician Adolphe Quetelet, who demonstrated in 1835 how adult weight normally increases in proportion to height squared, the index provides a measure of body weight, independent of stature, allowing us to compare the weight of short and tall people.	该指数最初以比利时天文学家、数学家兼统计学家凯特勒的名字命名，1835年凯特勒证明了正常状况下成年人的体重随身高的平方成比例递增。 卡特勒指数提供了不受身材影响的体重测量方法，让我们能够比较矮个者和高个者的体重。


In 1972, an American scientist, Ancel Keys, working in the area of human nutrition, public health, and epidemiology, renamed it the BMI after finding that its values also correlated with body fat mass as derived from skin-fold or body-density measurements.	1972年，美国从事人类营养、公共健康和流行病学研究的科学家安瑟尔·肯斯将其改名为体重指数，因为肯斯发现该指数数值也与测量皮皱厚度或身体密度得出的全身脂肪量密切相关。


However, recent findings have cast doubt on the BMI’s value.	但是，最近的研究成果质疑了体重指数的价值。


For example, although the BMI is associated with fat mass in obese people, there is little or no association with that of normal or underweight individuals.	比方说，尽管体重指数与肥胖人群的脂肪量相关，但与正常或体重偏低者的脂肪量却没有多大关系。


At any given BMI score, fat mass varies widely, and other variables, such as gender or age, further distort findings, with greater increases in fat mass per BMI unit seen in women and in the elderly.	任何给定体重指数评分的脂肪量都差别甚大，而且性别或年龄等其他变量也进一步扭曲了研究结果，显示妇女和中老年人的单位体重指数脂肪量有较大的增加。


Although the BMI is an unscientific way to characterize a person’s nutritional status, it is nonetheless used as a measure of total body fat mass in medical practice and epidemiological studies, not least because it is easy to calculate and document regularly in personal health records.	虽然用体重指数来描述个人的营养状况并不科学，但它仍在医疗及流行病研究领域广泛用于测量全身总脂肪含量。 这在很大程度上是因为体重指数容易计算，也便于在个人健康档案中定期记录。


Typically, doctors use it to categorize patients as “underweight” (a BMI value below 18.5), “normal weight” (18.5-25), “overweight” (25-30), or “obese” (above 30).	医生一般按体重指数把患者分为“体重过轻”（体重指数值低于18. 5）、“体重正常”（ 18.


This categorization is determined by data drawn from the general population and based on the assumption that there is a higher risk of metabolic or cardiovascular disease found at the high end (and sometimes the low end) of the BMI scale.	上述分类划定的依据来源于从普通民众中采集的数据，而且基于体重指数偏高（有时偏低）者罹患代谢或心血管病风险较高的假设。


Although recent studies suggest that high BMI scores do not necessarily increase risk of death, doctors find the BMI categories a useful basis for prevention and treatment.	虽然近期的研究表明高体重指数并不一定会加大死亡的风险，但医生发现体重指数分类为预防和治疗提供了有益的基础。


Such usage, however, has serious limitations.	但这样的用法存在不小的局限。


Because the index is calculated from two biological measures (weight and height), the resulting score has no biological meaning in itself.	该指数由两项生物学指标（体重和身高）计算得出，因此算出的得分本身并不具有生物学意义。


Thus, studies of the genetics of obesity that are based on a relationship between certain genetic markers and the BMI are also meaningless.	因此，基于特定遗传指标和体重指数关系的遗传学肥胖研究也没有什么意义。


In fact, the use of the BMI is likely to obscure our understanding of genetic effects on body weight.	事实上，体重指数的应用很可能影响我们对体重遗传效应的理解。


This is because body weight is the sum of our organs and body tissues; and each organ or body part has its own regulatory (and thus partly genetic) basis.	因为体重是各器官和身体组织的总和； 而不同器官或身体部位自有其调节（因此部分来源于遗传）基础。


We can understand more about organ and tissue masses, for example, or fatty infiltrations in individual organs like the liver and pancreas, by focusing on the nature of each body component, rather than by relying on an overall body score.	比方说我们可以通过重点研究各器官特性来加深对器官和组织包块或对肝脏、胰腺等器官脂肪浸润的理解，而避免把注意力放在全身的总体得分上。


Indeed, the regulation of body weight overall is determined by the sum of the specific regulatory outcomes affecting individual body components.	事实上，影响人身体部位的具体调节效果的总和决定了对体重的整体调节。


Because individual body components are inter-related, control of body weight seems to occur in the relationships between tissues and organs, rather than within individual components.	各身体部位间具有相关性，因此控制体重的成败似乎取决于组织和器官之间、而不是各部位之间的关系。


Adjusting weight by height squared is also likely to yield a different outcome for different organs.	用身高的平方来调整体重也可能对不同的器官产生不同的效果。


Although many body components do scale to height by a power close to two, others do not.	虽然很多身体器官的重量的确约等于身高的平方，但也有很多并非如此。


The brain, bone, and mineral mass scale to height by a power greater than two; while fat mass scales to height by a power of 1.8-2.6, depending on the population being studied and the means of measurement used.	根据研究人群和测量方法的不同，大脑，骨骼和矿物质质量与身高的比率大于二次方； 而脂肪量与身高的比率为1.


In short, body weight and body fat mass may not scale to height by the same power.	总之���体重和体脂含量与身高之比可能得不出同样的次方数。


This power may vary by population; and short and tall subjects with equal BMI scores, from the same population, may have a different body composition.	不同人群的次方数可能有所差别； 来自同一群体且体重指数相同的高个和矮个受试者可能有不同的身体结构。


Further evidence supporting the use of body-composition analysis, rather than the BMI, comes from the metabolic heterogeneity observed within each BMI category.	各体重指数类别观察到的代谢异质性成为支持使用身体成分分析、而非体重指数的进一步证据。


For example, a subgroup of normal-weight subjects may have low subcutaneous fat mass but high visceral fat mass (“thin on the outside and fat on the inside”).	比方说，一组体重正常的受试者可能在测出低皮下脂肪量的同时内脏脂肪量却较高。 （“外瘦内胖”）。


Despite their normal BMI, metabolically obese individuals – who may comprise as much as 24% of a normal-weight population – may be insulin-resistant and suffer increased cardio-metabolic risks.	尽管体重指数正常，但代谢肥胖群体——可能在正常体重群体中占比高达24%——可能对胰岛素具有耐药性，同时罹患心脏代谢疾病的风险也增大。


Likewise, around half of overweight subjects, and 15-45% of obese subjects, appear to have a favorable metabolic profile (that is, no metabolic complications, inflammation, dyslipidaemia, or hypertension).	同样，大约半数超重受试者和15-45%的肥胖受试者似乎代谢状况良好（也就是不存在代谢性并发症、炎症、血脂异常或高血压）。


At a BMI above 30, these subjects are deemed “metabolically healthy obese.”	体重指数超过30时，这些受试者被确定为“健康的代谢肥胖”。


Like obese patients suffering from cardio-metabolic risks (the “metabolically abnormal obese”), they have high visceral and subcutaneous fat mass, though metabolically healthy obese patients sometimes have excessive body fat but lower fat infiltration in the liver and in skeletal muscle.	像罹患心脏代谢风险（“代谢异常肥胖”）的肥胖患者一样，他们的内脏和皮下脂肪量较高，而代谢健康的肥胖患者尽管有时身体脂肪量超标，却较少出现脂肪浸润肝脏和骨骼肌的情况。


But the differences between the metabolically healthy obese and the metabolically abnormal obese are inconsistent.	但代谢健康肥胖和代谢异常肥胖之间的差异并不具有确定性。


And, though age, sex, ethnicity, waist circumference, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol consumption all correlate with metabolic phenotypes, the BMI is unable to distinguish between the two groups.	而且，虽然年龄、性别、种族、腰围、体力活动、吸烟和饮酒等因素均与代谢表型相关，但体重指数无法显示出两者之间的差别。


It would be unfair to say that the BMI has no clinical value; it can be a useful indicator of nutritional health in patients, and help doctors make day-to-day decisions about whom they should treat.	断言体重指数没有临床价值是不公正的； 它可以成为确定患者营养健康状况的有益指标，协助医生判断该为谁提供日常治疗。


But one must turn to body-composition measurements for any serious epidemiological and etiological studies on obesity.	但对肥胖真正的流行病学和病因学研究必须进行身体成分测量。


Man, Machine, and in Between	人机之间


TÜBINGEN, GERMANY – We are so surrounded by gadgetry nowadays that it is sometimes hard to tell where devices end and people begin.	德国图宾根——今天，我们被机器全面包围着，以致于有时很难分清人机界限。


From computers and scanners to mobile devices, an increasing number of humans spend much of their conscious lives interacting with the world through electronics, the only barrier between brain and machine being the senses — sight, sound, and touch — through which humans and devices interface.	从电脑到扫描仪再到移动设备，越来越多的人在清醒的大部分时间里通过电子产品和外界打交道，视觉、听觉和触觉等感官似乎成了人脑和机器之间唯一的障碍，而它们也构成了人机之间的分界。


But remove those senses from the equation, and electronic devices can become our eyes, ears and even arms and legs, taking in the world around us and interacting with it through software and hardware.	但如果将感官从这个等式中去掉，电子设备就可以成为我们的眼睛、耳朵甚至手脚，它帮我们借助软硬件来领会和影响周围的世界。


This is no mere prediction.	所有这些并不仅仅停留在预测。


Brain-machine interfaces are already clinically well established – for example, in restoring hearing through cochlear implants.	脑机接口在临床领域已经取得了丰硕的成果，比方说为恢复听力植入人工耳蜗。


And patients with end-stage Parkinson’s disease can be treated with deep brain stimulation (DBS).	深部脑刺激疗法可以用来治疗终期帕金森症的患者。


Current experiments on neural prosthetics point to the enormous future potential of similar interventions, whether retinal or brain-stem implants for the blind or brain-recording devices for controlling prostheses.	目前在神经义肢领域的研究让人们意识到类似疗法在未来巨大的发展潜力，无论是盲人视网膜或脑干移植还是通过植入大脑记录设备来控制假肢的活动。


Non-invasive brain-machine interfaces based on electroencephalogram recordings have restored the communication skills of paralyzed patients.	以记录脑电波为基础的非损伤性脑机接口已经使瘫痪病人的沟通能力得以恢复。


Animal research and some human studies suggest that full control of artificial limbs in real time could further offer the paralyzed an opportunity to grasp or even to stand and walk on brain-controlled, artificial legs, albeit likely through invasive means, with electrodes implanted directly in the brain.	动物研究和某些人类研究的结果表明，实现了由人类完全实时控制的人工假肢可以进一步让瘫痪病人实现抓握、甚至依靠由大脑控制的人工假腿实现站立和行走，虽然达到这个目标可能需要接受有创性治疗（将电极直接植入患者的大脑）。


Future advances in neurosciences, together with miniaturization of microelectronic devices, will enable more widespread application of brain-machine interfaces.	神经科学在未来的发展加之微电子设备小型化的潮流将促成脑机接口更广泛的应用。


This could be seen to challenge our notions of personhood and moral agency.	有人可能认为这将挑战我们的人格观念和道德结构。


And the question will certainly loom that if functions can be restored for those in need, is it right to use these technologies to enhance the abilities of healthy individuals?	有一个问题也肯定会摆在我们面前：如果需要的人可以借此来恢复功能，那么运用此类技术增强健康人的能力又是对是错？


But the ethical problems that these technologies pose are conceptually similar to those presented by existing therapies, such as antidepressants.	但此类技术所造成的道德问题在概念上与抗抑郁药等现有疗法几乎如出一辙。


Although the technologies and situations that brain-machine interfacing devices present might seem new and unfamiliar, they pose few new ethical challenges.	尽管脑机接口设备所牵扯到的技术和状况可能不为人知，但它们所带来的道德挑战却是我们所熟悉的。


In brain-controlled prosthetic devices, a computer that sits in the device decodes signals from the brain.	在由大脑控制的假肢设备中，由设备的内置电脑负责解码来自大脑的信号。


These signals are then used to predict what a user intends to do.	这些信号被用来推测使用者想做些什么。


Invariably, predictions will sometimes fail, which could lead to dangerous, or at least embarrassing, situations.	既然是推测就难免出错，而错误可能导致危险、或至少也是令人尴尬的状况。


Who is responsible for involuntary acts?	由谁来为这些非自主性行为负责？


Is it the fault of the computer or the user?	这究竟是电脑还是使用者的错？


Will a user need some kind of license and obligatory insurance to operate a prosthesis?	使用者是否需要获得某种执照和强制性保险才能操纵假肢？


Fortunately, there are precedents for dealing with liability when biology and technology fail.	幸运的是，应对生物和技术失败的责任是有先例可循的。


Increasing knowledge of human genetics, for example, led to attempts to reject criminal responsibility, based on the inappropriate belief that genes predetermine actions.	比方说，在人类基因领域越来越深入的了解曾经引发了以不恰当的基因决定行为论为由拒绝承认刑事责任的企图。


These attempts failed, and neuroscientific pursuits seem similarly unlikely to overturn our views on human free will and responsibility.	这样的企图遭到了失败，同样神经科学方面的研究也不大可能颠覆我们对人类自由意志和责任的认识。


Moreover, humans often control dangerous and unpredictable tools, such as cars and guns.	此外，人类常常会控制危险和不可预测的工具，比方说枪和汽车。


Brain-machine interfaces represent a highly sophisticated case of tool use, but they are still just that.	脑机接口设备代表一种高精密的工具使用方式，但仅此而已。


Legal responsibility should not be much harder to disentangle.	法律责任的问题应该不难解决。


But what if machines change the brain?	但机器改变大脑又该如何？


Evidence from early brain stimulation experiments a half-century ago suggests that sending a current into the brain may cause shifts in personality and alter behavior.	半个世纪前脑刺激早期试验的证据表明向脑部发送电流可以导致人格和行为的变化。


And, while many Parkinson’s patients report significant benefits from DBS, it has shown a greater incidence of serious adverse effects, such as nervous system and psychiatric disorders and a higher suicide rate.	虽然有许多帕金森氏症患者报告从深部脑刺激中获益，但产生严重副作用的案例也很多，比方说神经系统紊乱、心理疾病和自杀率升高。


Case studies revealed hypomania and personality changes of which patients were unaware, and which disrupted family relationships before the stimulation parameters were readjusted.	案例研究显示患者出现轻度躁狂和个性变化而不自知，而这些问题在调整刺激参数之前就已经对家庭关系产生了破坏作用。


Such examples illustrate the possible dramatic side-effects of DBS, but subtler effects are also possible.	上述实例说明深部脑刺激可能产生哪些严重副作用，但出现比较缓和的副作用也是可能的。


Even without stimulation, mere recording devices such as brain-controlled motor prostheses may alter the patient’s personality.	即便没有任何刺激，诸如脑控制电动假肢这样单纯的记录设备也可能改变患者的人格。


Patients will need to be trained in generating the appropriate neural signals to direct the prosthetic limb.	患者需要接受培训，才能恰如其分地发出神经信号来指挥假肢活动。


Doing so might have slight effects on mood or memory function or impair speech control.	这样做可能会对情绪或记忆功能产生轻微的影响，也可能会轻微地损害语言表达。


Nevertheless, this does not raise a new ethical problem.	但这并没有产生全新的道德问题。


Side-effects are common in most medical interventions, including treatment with psychoactive drugs.	副作用是多数医学治疗中的常见现象，包括服用对神经有影响的药物。


In 2004, for example, the United States Food and Drug Administration told drug manufacturers to print warnings on certain antidepressants about the increased short-term risk of suicide in adolescents using them, and required increased monitoring of young people as they started medication.	比方说在2004年，美国食品药品管理局通知药厂在某些抗抑郁药品包装上印刷警告性说明，披露在服药的青少年患者中短期自杀率升高，并需要在开始服药后加强对年轻人的监控。


Similar safeguards will be needed for neuroprostheses, including in research.	神经义肢领域也需要同样的保护措施，包括在这个领域所进行的研究。


The classic approach of biomedical ethics is to weigh the benefits for the patient against the risk of the intervention, and to respect the patient’s autonomous decisions.	生物医药伦理的经典方法是权衡患者的治疗好处和风险，并尊重患者的自主选择。


None of the new technologies warrants changing that approach.	新技术不会在任何领域改变这种方法。


Nevertheless, the availability of such technologies has already begun to cause friction.	尽管如此，这种技术的面世已经开始带来摩擦。


For example, many in the deaf community have rejected cochlear implants, because they do not regard deafness as a disability that needs to be corrected, but as a part of their life and cultural identity.	比方说，许多聋人拒绝安装人工耳蜗，因为他们并不认为耳聋是一种需要矫正的缺陷，而把它当作自己���活和文化身份的组成部分。


To them, cochlear implants are an enhancement beyond normal functioning.	对他们来讲，人工耳蜗是一种在正常功能以外的强化功能。


Distinguishing between enhancement and treatment requires defining normality and disease, which is notoriously difficult.	区分“强化”和“治疗”需要定义正常和疾病，而定义这两个概念的难度尽人皆知。


For example, Christopher Boorse, a philosopher at the University of Delaware, defines disease as a statistical deviation from “species-typical functioning.”	比方说，特拉华大学哲学家克里斯托弗·布尔斯就把疾病定义为基于“物种一般机能”所产生的统计学偏离。


From this perspective, cochlear implants seem ethically unproblematic.	从这个角度讲，人工耳蜗植入似乎在道德上并不存在问题。


Nevertheless, Anita Silvers, a philosopher at San Francisco State University and a disability scholar and activist, has described such treatments as “tyranny of the normal,” aimed at adjusting the deaf to a world designed by the hearing, ultimately implying the inferiority of deafness.	尽管如此，旧金山州立大学哲学家、残疾问题学者兼活动家阿妮塔·西尔弗斯曾将类此治疗统称为“来自正常人的专制”，其目的是让聋人适应由正常人所设计的世界，并最终隐含着聋人低人一等的含义。


We should take such concerns seriously, but they should not prevent further research on brain-machine interfaces.	我们应当认真对待这样的忧虑，但它们不能阻止我们在脑机接口设备领域更加深入的研究。


Brain technologies should be presented as one option, but not the only solution, for, say, paralysis or deafness.	大脑技术应当成为瘫痪或耳聋患者的一种选择，但绝不是唯一的选择。


In this and other medical applications, we are well prepared to deal with ethical questions in parallel to and in cooperation with neuroscientific research.	在上述和其它医学疗法中，我们时刻准备应对与神经科学研究并行和匹配的各种道德问题。


Man or Monster?	人魔之间


PHNOM PENH -- The appearance of the first former Khmer Rouge leader in a special hybrid court established in Cambodia to bring that movement’s surviving leaders to justice provoked a question on which the tribunal’s integrity will depend: should an accused mass murderer be released from prison pending his trial?	建立该法庭的目的是为了将“红色高棉”运动尚健在的领导人绳之以法。 而这一亮相所激起的公众质疑将直接关乎该法庭的正义性：一个被控犯有大屠杀罪的人在受审期间能够从监狱里放出来么？


Kaing Guek Eav, commonly known as “Duch,” presided over the deaths of more than 14,000 people at S-21, a former Phnom Penh high school turned into a torture center.	康克由，通常人称“杜赫”，在其主持下有14 000人在S-21监狱死去。 该监狱是由金边的一所高中所改建的刑讯中心。


He is one of five former senior Khmer Rouge leaders who will be made to answer for their roles during Pol Pot’s genocide, in which an estimated 1.7 million Cambodians perished.	他是前“红色高棉”的五个高级领导人之一，这些人都要为其在波尔布特大屠杀中所扮演的角色接受审判。 在这次屠杀中有170万名柬埔寨人丧生。


Until recently, Duch was the only one imprisoned, after being exposed in 1999.	自从1999年暴露身份以后直到最近，杜赫是唯一一个被羁押的领导人。


The court – with its improbable blend of Cambodian and foreign judges and attorneys as well as laws – is meant to be a model for judicial reform and independent justice in a country where impunity has long been the rule.	这个法庭—以几乎不可能的方式集结了柬埔寨本国和外国的法官、律师及适用法律—旨在这个国家长久以来法律惩戒形同虚设的国家成为司法改革和司法独立的样板。


The five red-robed judges who preside over the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (the tribunal’s official name) are the final arbiters of Duch’s detention, but the question they are now considering belongs as much to the people of Cambodia as it does to the court.	五位身披红袍的法官领衔柬埔寨法院的“特命法庭”（该特别法庭的官方称谓），他们是拘押杜赫的最终仲裁者。 但他们现在代表法庭所考虑的问题与柬埔寨人民同样相关。


Should mass murderers be afforded the same rights as everyone else?	大屠杀者能够享有和庶民一样的权利么？


One of my aunts has a strong opinion on the matter.	我的一位婶婶在这件事上有非常坚定的立场。


Khmer Rouge soldiers beat her father to death, and she remembers being shot at for sport by communist cadres as she and dozens of other peasants scuttled up a mountainside.	红色高棉的士兵将她的父亲活活打死。 她还记得和十数位农民在山边疾行时被共产党的干部当作靶子练枪。


She now lives one block from S-21.	她现在居住的地方离S-21监狱只有一个街区。


“Human rights are for humans,” she said emphatically when I asked her about Duch's case.	“人权是对人而言的，”当我问她关于杜赫案的看法时，她强调说：“他是魔鬼。


“He is a monster.”	”


I once believed that, too.	我也曾经坚信这一点。


When I first visited Duch’s house of horrors in 1990, I was 15 and full of wonder about the country where I was born but had never lived.	当我在1990年第一次参观杜赫的恐怖之屋时年仅15岁，对这个随生于此但却未长于此的国度充满了好奇。


My family escaped the Khmer Rouge on April 17, 1975, the day they claimed victory.	我们一家在1975年4月17日“红色高棉”宣布胜利的那一天逃离了他们的魔爪。


When my mother and I journeyed home to reunite with relatives who had survived the genocide, S-21 (also known as Tuol Sleng) was among our first stops.	当我和母亲重返故土与在大屠杀中幸存的亲友团聚时，S-21(也被称为Tuol Sleng)是我们最先参观的场所之一。


By then, the torture facility had been turned into a museum.	那时，刑讯设施已经被改造成了博物馆。


I remember feeling claustrophobic as I walked down its narrow halls and into classrooms turned into crude cellblocks.	我记得自己走过狭长的通道进入教室改建的阴森囚室时，感到一种幽闭的恐惧。


The air was stale but heavy with the stench of death in interrogation chambers, barren save for a single bed frame, shackles, and a chair.	浑浊的空气里混杂着审讯室里的死亡气息。 除了一张光秃秃的单人床、枷锁和一把椅子，囚室里别无他物。


Flecks of dried blood peeled up from the floor.	凝干的血痂从地面上翻驳起来。


This was a place where fingernails of countless victims were ripped out, where others were strung upside down and dunked in barrels of water, where many were brutalized with metal prongs and batons.	有无数的受害者在这里被拔掉指甲； 有的人被倒吊着，头浸在水桶里；


This was a place of utter brokenness.	还有的人饱受金属耙子与棍棒之苦。 这是一处炼狱。


This was Duch’s place.	这是杜赫的地盘。


Mostly, I remember the hundreds of black and white mug shots of prisoners and victims that covered every inch of the walls – a ghastly montage of human suffering that haunts me to this day.	而令我记忆最深刻的，是那些成百上千张贴满墙壁的囚徒和受害者的黑白照片—人类苦难的恐怖蒙太奇，至今仍在我脑海中挥之不去。


I couldn’t help but think: this was somebody’s daughter, somebody’s son.	我禁不住想：这是某人的女儿，某人的儿子。


This was somebody’s mother or sister or brother.	这又是谁的母亲、姊妹或兄弟。


Back then, I thought: What monster could do such things?	在那时，我暗想：什么样的魔鬼能够做出这样的行径？


Now, that monster was sitting in a courtroom, looking scared and meek as prosecutors catalogued his alleged war crimes.	现在，那个魔鬼却坐在法庭上，在公诉人列举他的种种战争罪行时显得那样的害怕和无助。


Sitting in the packed auditorium where snatches of Duch’s face flash by on a movie screen, I’m struck by what I see: a face that belongs to someone.	坐在人满为患的旁听席上，看着杜赫的面容在一块屏幕上闪过，我突然被我的所见震撼：那是一张属于某人的脸。


This alleged perpetrator of unspeakable misdeeds is, like his victims, someone’s son, someone’s brother, someone’s father.	这个被指控犯下惨绝人寰的罪行的人，和他的受害者们一样，也是某人的儿子、兄弟或父亲。


This might have been only a fleeting thought had I not seen Duch’s family members, who attended the hearings.	如果不是在听证会上看到杜赫的家人，我的这种想法可能也是一闪而过。


Hang Seav Heang, 28, described the defendant as a gentle man, a good father.	28岁的Hang Seav Heang将被告描述为一位绅士，一个好父亲。


One of his sisters said he was a caring, protective brother, and that she would always love him.	他的一个姊妹说他是个有爱心、呵护姊妹的大哥，并表示她将永远爱他。


Outside the courtroom and in the community, most of the Khmers I talked to were, like my aunt, quick to categorize Duch as something other than human.	在法庭之外及社会上，我所交谈过的绝大多数高棉人和我婶婶一样，都很快将杜赫归为非人类。


Duch must have thought much the same thing about his victims when he ordered them to their deaths.	当杜赫下令处死他的受害者们的时候，他对他们肯定也抱有同样的想法。


When we start to see each other as less than human, we respond with inhuman acts.	当我们将彼此视为非人之时，我们就会以非人道的行为回应。


It is this narrow, black-and-white view of humanity that has perpetuated a cycle of violence in Cambodia, where raging mobs beat to death robbery suspects and young mistresses suffer acid attacks by jealous wives.	正是这样一种对人性的狭隘、非黑即白的观点使柬埔寨陷入了一个暴力循环。 愤怒的民众将抢劫嫌疑人殴打致死，年轻的情妇被妒嫉的妻子泼以硫酸。


To say that Duch is a monster who does not deserve rights ignores the gray area between good and evil, between man and monster, where anything is possible.	说杜赫是不该享有人权的魔鬼就忽略了善与恶、人与魔之间那片万事皆有可能的灰色地带。


This trial is about that gray area, about that place in us all where morality decays and evil takes root and grows, the way mold prevails given the right conditions.	这次审判是关于那片灰色地带，那片我们每个人心中都有的道德衰败，而邪恶的青苔会适时滋生的地带。


Each of us carries this potential for rot.	我们每一个人都有腐败的可能。


There is no dispute that Duch violated the rights of thousands of Khmers.	毫无疑问，杜赫侵犯了成千上万高棉人的权利。


But if the basic premise of these trials is to uphold human rights, then we are obliged to extend that same principle to Duch.	但如果这些审判的基础是捍卫人权，那么我们就必须让同样的原则适用于杜赫。


What does it say to the country and the world if a court convened to mete out justice flouts the law?	如果一个法庭所做的是损害公正、蔑视法律，那么它会向这个国家和世界传达什么样的信息呢？


Isn’t lawlessness the plague we are finally trying to eradicate in Cambodia?	我们最终想从柬埔寨根除的不正是无法无天的顽疾么？


The judges have offered no indication when they will make a decision.	法官们还没有透露会在何时作决定。


And no one would blame them for taking their time to consider their options.	他们多花点时间审慎抉择也是无可厚非的。


This is, after all, the court’s first test of fairness before the trials of Duch and four of Pol Pot’s other henchmen begin next year.	毕竟，这是该法庭在明年对杜赫和波尔波特的其他四个党羽进行审判之前，其公正性所面临的第一次考验。


We all want justice, but that justice should not come at the cost of our humanity.	我们都渴望公正，但那种公正不能以牺牲人性为代价。


The Federal Reserve and the Currency Wars	美联储和货币战争


NEW YORK – The United States Federal Reserve’s recent decision to launch a third round of “quantitative easing” has revived accusations by Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, that the US has unleashed a “currency war.”	纽约—最近，美联储决定实施第三轮“量化宽松”，这让巴西财政部长曼蒂加关于美国在发动“货币战争”的控诉又获得了市场。


In emerging-market countries that are already struggling with the impact of rapid currency appreciation on their competitiveness, expansionary measures announced in recent weeks by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have heightened the sense of alarm at the Fed’s decision.	对于已经深受货币快速升值影响竞争力的困扰的新兴市场国家，最近几周欧洲央行和日本央行的宽松措施已经给它们打了预防针：美国可能也要采取行动了。


My sense is that both sides are right.	我认为，双方都是对的。


The Fed was right to adopt new expansionary monetary measures in the face of a weak US recovery.	美联储对在用新的扩张性货币手段刺激美国疲软的复苏。


Furthermore, tying it to improvements in the labor market was a particularly important step – one that other central banks, especially the ECB, should follow.	此外，把它用在改善劳动力市场是一个特别重要的步骤，其他央行，特别是欧洲央行，应该效仿美联储的做法。


Of course, monetary expansion should be accompanied by a less contractionary fiscal stance in industrial countries.	当然，工业国的货币扩张应该辅之以非紧缩性的财政立场。


But the advanced economies’ room for fiscal maneuver is more limited than it was in 2007-2008, and America’s political gridlock has deepened, all but ruling out further stimulus through budgetary channels.	但发达国家的财政动作的空间比2007—2008年期间小了很多，美国政治僵局也有所深化，这些都排除了通过预算渠道实施进一步刺激的可能。


Although the effectiveness of a new round of quantitative easing will be limited, as Mantega argues, the Fed had no choice but to act.	尽管正如曼蒂加所言，新一轮量化宽松的效果会极其有限，但美联储别无选择，只能这样做。


But Mantega is also right.	但曼蒂加也不错。


Given the role of the US dollar as the dominant global currency, the Fed’s expansionary monetary policy generates significant externalities for the rest of the world – effects that the Fed is certainly not taking into account.	美元是主要全球货币，美联储的扩张性政策会给世界其他地区带来严重的外部效应——这一点肯定不会进入美联储的考虑范围内。


The basic problem is that there are essential imperfections in an international monetary system that is based on the use of a national currency as the world’s main reserve currency.	基本问题是，国际货币体系具有一个关键的缺陷：它使用国家货币作为世界主要储备货币。


This problem was highlighted as far back as the 1960’s by the Belgian economist Robert Triffin, and, more recently, by the late Italian economist Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa.	这一问题由比利时经济学家特里芬在20世纪60年代便已提出，最近又为已故意大利经济学家派多-夏欧帕（Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa）所强调。


“The stability requirements of the system as a whole,” Padoa-Schioppa argued, “are inconsistent with the pursuit of economic and monetary policy forged solely on the basis of domestic rationales.”	“整个体系的稳定性要求与仅考虑国内情况的经济和货币政策导向不相容，”派多-夏欧帕说。


In particular, expansionary monetary policies in the US (indeed, in all advanced countries) are generating high risks for emerging economies.	特别是，美国（事实上，是所有发达国家）的扩张性货币政策正在给新兴经济体造成很大的风险。


Because interest rates must remain very low in developed countries at least for the next several years, there are now strong incentives to export capital to higher-yielding emerging economies.	由于发达国家至少在未来数年内都不得不将利率维持在极低水平，市场上存在很大的向高收益新兴经济体出口资本的激励。


But such capital inflows threaten exchange-rate overvaluation, rising current-account deficits, and asset-price bubbles, all of which have in the past led to crises in these economies.	但这类资本流入会造成汇率升值风险，使经常项目赤字升高，产生资产泡沫，而这正是过去新兴经济体发生危机的原因。


In short, the medium-term benefits that emerging economies could receive from faster growth in the US are now being swamped by short-term risks generated by the “capital tsunami,” as Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has called it.	简言之，新兴经济体可以从美国增长加速中获得中期好处正在被“资本海啸”（巴西总统罗塞夫语）所造成短期风险压过。


The basic problem is the lack of a broader agenda that would make the Fed’s position consistent with that of Mantega and other emerging-country officials.	基本问题是缺少能够让美联储立场与曼蒂加和其他新兴国家官员立场一致的更大的安排。


That agenda must include two issues of global monetary reform that remain unaddressed: coordinated global regulation of capital flows in the short term, and a long-term shift toward a new international monetary system based on a true global reserve currency (possibly based on the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights).	该安排必须包括两方面仍待进行的全球货币改革：短期资本流的全球合作监管，以及基于真正全球性储备货币（或许可以用IMF特别提款权来充当）的新国际货币体系。


The US could benefit from such policies, as capital-account regulation would force investors to find opportunities at home, while a true global reserve currency would free the US from concerns – and harsh rebukes – about the implications of its monetary policy on the global economy.	美国也可以从这些政策中获益，因为资本项目监管会迫使投资者在国内寻找机会，而真正的全球储备货币可以让美国从其货币政策可能影响全球经济的担忧（以及所受的严苛指责）中解放出来。


At the same time, emerging markets would gain the full benefits of expansionary monetary policy in the US, to the extent that it boosts demand for their exports.	与此同时，新兴市场可以获得美国实施宽松货币政策的全部好处，因为这样能够刺激它们的出口需求。


IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has called for coordinated action to sustain the global recovery.	IMF总裁拉加德已经呼吁采取合作行动维持全球复苏。


Moreover, in October, the IMF is set to release official “rules of the road” for the use of capital-account regulations.	此外，10月份IMF将给出使用资本项目监管的正式“路线图”。


The IMF/World Bank meetings in Tokyo on October 12-13 thus might be the ideal opportunity to begin broadening the international monetary agenda – by giving the green light to coordinated regulation of cross-border capital flows, and launching a discussion about the future of the international monetary system.	因此，将于10月12—13日在日本举行的IMF/世界银行会议将是一次理想的启动扩张国际货币安排的机会——如何做？ 给跨境资本流的合作监管开绿灯，并发起关于国际货币体系未来的讨论。


Manufacturing Scientific Uncertainty	制造科学的不确定性


For decades, the tobacco industry manufactured more than just cigarettes.	数十年来，烟草行业制造的不仅是香烟。


While aggressively marketing tobacco products, they also waged a successful public relations campaign designed to create uncertainty about the destructive and lethal characteristics of their products.	在不遗余力地营销烟草产品的同时，他们也发动了一场成功的公关攻势，旨在令其产品致命性和毁灭性的特点模糊化。


Though discovery of these efforts has come too late for many tobacco smokers, documents unearthed in lawsuits have revealed concerted efforts to avoid the imposition of government regulation by attacking public health science and scientists.	虽然许多吸烟者很晚才发现该行业如此劣行，但在法律诉讼中发现的档案表明该行业一直协同发力攻击公共卫生科学及科学家，以规避政府监管。


There are few scientific challenges more complex than understanding the causes of disease in humans.	很少有比弄清人类疾病的成因更为复杂的科学挑战了。


Scientists cannot feed toxic chemicals to people, for example, to see what doses cause cancer.	例如，科学家们不能将有毒化学物质注入人体来观察什么样的剂量能导致癌症。


Instead, scientists must harness the “natural experiments” in which exposures have already occurred.	相反，他们必须利用已经发生的“自然实验”进行研究。


To be sure, in the laboratory, scientists use animals in controlled experimental conditions to investigate the workings of toxic agents.	确切地说，在实验室里，科学家们用受控试验状态下的动物来探究毒性介质的作用。


But, like epidemiological evidence, laboratory studies have many uncertainties, and scientists must extrapolate from study-specific evidence to make judgments about causation and recommend protective measures.	但是，就如流行病学证据一样，实验室研究有许多不确定性，科学家们必须从特定的研究证据开始用外推法进行因果判断，并推荐预防措施。


Absolute certainty is rarely an option.	绝对的确定性几乎是不存在的。


Nevertheless, much scientific “uncertainty” about the causes of disease is not real, but manufactured.	但无论如何，许多关于病因的科学“不确定性”并非真实的，而是人为制造的。


Years ago, a tobacco executive unwisely committed to paper the perfect slogan for his industry’s disinformation campaign: “Doubt is our product.”	多年以前，一位烟草公司的管理者不智地向报界透露了该行业假情报攻势的口号：“怀疑是我们的产品”。


For 50 years, tobacco companies employed a stable of scientists to assert (sometimes under oath) that they did not believe there was conclusive evidence that smoking cigarettes causes lung cancer.	50年来，烟草公司雇用了一大批科学家来支持（有时甚至发誓）他们不相信有决定性的证据表明抽烟导致肺癌的观点。


Less well known, but following the same pattern, are efforts being mounted to question studies documenting the adverse health effects of exposure to lead, mercury, vinyl chloride, chromium, beryllium, benzene, and a long list of pesticides and other toxic chemicals.	比较不为人知，但却如出一辙的是相关行业质疑铅、汞、氯化烯、铬、铍、苯和多种杀虫剂及其它有毒化学物质对健康的不利影响的研究的劣行。


Polluters and manufacturers of dangerous products hire experts in what they call “product defense” to dissect every study whose findings they oppose, highlighting flaws and inconsistencies.	污染者和危险产品制造者雇用专家为他们做所谓的“产品辩护”，吹毛求疵，肢解所有结果可能威胁到他们利益的研究。


In many cases, they won’t deny that a relationship exists between the exposure and the disease, but are quick to proclaim that “the evidence is inconclusive.”	在很多情况下，他们不会否认疾病与暴露影响之间有联系，但却很快会宣称“证据是非决定性的。 ”


These industries have learned that by focusing the debate on uncertainties in the science (and the need for more research), it is possible to avoid a debate on public policy.	这些行业已经明白了通过在科学的不确定性（以及进一步研究的需要）上纠缠就可能避免公共政策的辩论。


This can delay for years the expenditures required to protect people’s health and the environment.	这样做可以将保护人们健康和环境方面的必要支出延迟多年。


Nowadays, the most well known (and probably best financed) campaign to manufacture scientific doubt is being waged by the fossil fuel industry in an effort to impugn scientists’ work on issues related to climate change.	当今，最广为人知的（也可能是有最雄厚财力支持的）制造科学怀疑的攻势是由化石燃料行业发动，旨在驳斥科学家们对气候变化相关问题的研究。


When confronted by an overwhelming worldwide scientific consensus on the contribution of human activity to global warming over the past century, the industry and its political allies follow the tobacco road.	面对强大的世界范围内对人类活动影响全球变暖的科学共识，该行业及其政治盟友就效法烟草行业的策略。


Evidence of this surfaced when Frank Luntz, a leading Republican political consultant, sent a strategy memo to his clients in 2002.	当Frank Luntz，一位著名的共和党政治顾问在2002年将一份战略备忘录交给他的客户时，这种攻势的证据就浮出水面了。


Luntz asserted that “  The scientific debate remains open.  Voters believe that there is  no  consensus about global warming in the scientific community.	Luntz坚持说“科学辩论仍然是开放的。 选民们相信科学界对全球变暖的问题还没有达成共识。


Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.”	一旦公众开始相信科学问题尘埃落定，他们对于全球变暖的观点也会随之改变。 ”


In parallel to their attempts to delay or prevent regulation through assertions of scientific uncertainty, polluters and manufacturers of hazardous products have promoted the “junk science” movement, which attempts to influence public opinion by ridiculing scientists whose research threatens powerful interests, irrespective of the quality of that scientist’s research.	与其通过坚持科学的不确定性来拖延或防止监管的企图相提并论的，是污染者和有害产品制造者们推动“垃圾科学”运动的努力。 这项运动的意图是通过不分青红皂白对威胁到自身利益的科学家及其研究进行讥讽，从而影响公众舆论。


“Junk science” advocates allege that many scientific studies (and even scientific methods) used in the regulatory and legal arenas are fundamentally flawed, contradictory, or incomplete.	“垃圾科学”的倡导者们声称许多用于监管和法律领域的科学研究（甚至研究方法）都是根本上有缺陷的、矛盾的或不完整的。


Every first-year public health student is taught how John Snow stopped a cholera epidemic in London.	每一位大学公共卫生专业的一年级学生都学过John Snow是如何阻止了伦敦的霍乱流行。


During a ten-day period in September 1854, during which more than 500 Londoners died from the disease, Snow used a city map to mark the location of each household with a case of cholera.	在1895年9月的连续十天里，有500多个伦敦人死于霍乱，Snow用城市地图将所有发生霍乱病例的家庭的位置标注出来。


He determined that Londoners who drank from one particular water source were at the highest risk for the disease, and he recommended removal of the handle from the pump supplying drinking water from that source.	他发现从某一特定水源取水的伦敦人罹患该病的风险最高。 所以他建议将从该水源抽水的水泵上的把手卸掉。


By using the best evidence available at the time, hundreds of additional deaths were avoided.	通过采用当时能够获得的最好的证据，成百上千的伦敦市民免受了死亡威胁。


If government officials in London had demanded absolute certainty, the epidemic might have continued for another 30 years until the cholera bacterium was identified.	如果伦敦的政府官员执意要绝对的确定性，那么这场疾病可能会继续肆虐30年，直到霍乱病菌被发现识别为止。


The manufacturing of scientific uncertainty endangers the public’s health, as well as programs to protect public health and to compensate victims.	制造科学不确定性使大众健康和保护大众健康及赔偿受害者的计划都处于危险之中。


It is time to return to first principles: use the best science available, but do not demand certainty where it does not exist.	到了我们回归首要原则的时候了：运用现有的最佳科学，但不要在不可能的情况下苛求确定性。


Many Laws, Little Justice in China	中国有法不依


The image on the computer screen is shocking: a man, lying on a hospital bed, his head bandaged, with long trickles of blood running from the top of his scalp.	电脑屏幕上的画面是令人震惊的：一个男人，躺在医院的病床上，他的头上绑着绷带，血不断地从他的头顶上淌下来。


The man, now sitting next to me, explains with a bit of understatement, “Of course I must continue to have faith in the Chinese legal system, although I must admit that this incident has somewhat dampened my optimism.”	这个人，现在坐在我身边，轻描淡写地解释说：“当然我必须依然保持对中国法制的信心，尽管我必须承认这次事件在某种程度上使我不再那么乐观了。 ”


The “incident” occurred last December, as he and another attorney traveled to prepare the re-trial of a blind, self-taught legal activist.	这次“事件”发生在去年十二月份，他和另一个律师坐车去准备一位失明、自学成才的法律激进分子的再审事宜。


That activist had been framed by local authorities after he had denounced abuses by the local family planning authorities.	那位激进分子因为揭发了当地计划生育主管部门滥用权力的行为后受到了当地政府的设计陷害。


As the two lawyers were traveling on a bus, a gang of men, some of them wielding metal pipes, boarded it and brutally assaulted them.	当这两位律师坐在一辆公共汽车上时，一群人，其中的一些手里挥舞着金属管，上了车把他们毒打了一顿。


The injuries proved minor, but the incident embodies the paradox of China’s legal system: over the past two decades, China has enacted hundreds of laws and elevated “ruling the country according to law” to ideological and constitutional prominence.	尽管没有受很严重的伤，但是这件事反映了中国法律制度自相矛盾的地方，那就是，在过去二十年间，中国颁布了数百部法律，并且把“依法治国”提到意识形态和宪法上高度重视的地位。


Legal awareness in society has soared to unprecedented levels.	社会上对于法律的认识达到了前所未有的水平。


Last week, China finally enshrined private property by passing the long-awaited property rights law, in what the government called “significant progress in promoting rule of law in the country.”	上个星期，中国最终通过了期待已久的物权法，从而确立了私有财产的地位，对此政府称之为“国家推动法治建设的重要进展”。


Yet access to justice remains tightly constrained, courts are still controlled by the Communist Party of China (CPC), and lawyers involved in litigation against local state agencies remain highly vulnerable to retaliation by state and non-state actors.	然而要获得公正的对待却依然很艰难，法院依然是被中国共产党所控制的，受理对地方政府部门诉讼的律师很容易受到政府和非政府部门的报复。


Reprisals range from suspension of lawyers’ licenses by the judicial bureaus to physical intimidation or assault by criminal elements.	报复的行为包括被司法部门暂时吊销律师资格证，到被犯罪组织人身威胁或殴打。


After their attackers left, the two lawyers made repeated calls to the police to report the incident, but police did nothing beyond take the call.	在袭击他们的人离开后，两位律师一次次地拨打电话报警，但是警察除了接电话外却什么都没做。


Formal complaints to the justice ministry and the national bar association weren’t even acknowledged, let alone answered.	向司法部和国家律师协会的正式投诉甚至没有被确认收悉，更别提什么回复了。


Ever since Deng Xiaoping ushered in the “reform and opening” era in 1978, the Chinese leadership has seen the legal system as an instrument to carry out state policies.	自从邓小平在1978年提出“改革开放”以来，中国的领导人把法制看作推行国家政策的一个工具。


But as China’s society progressively emancipated itself from direct state control – with the notable exception of sectors viewed by the CPC as crucial to maintaining its monopoly on power – citizens increasingly appealed to the law for protection against arbitrary administrative interference and to limit the bureaucracy’s discretionary powers.	但是当中国社会逐渐从国家直接控制解放出来后，除一些被中国共产党认为对维护其专制至关重要的少数几个部门外，国民越来越强烈地呼吁要求法律保护他们不受管理部门随心所欲的干涉以及限制政府官员不受束缚的权力。


In turn, the government encouraged the idea that ordinary citizens had legal rights as a way to ensure social stability, check petty corruption, and channel social grievances through a party-controlled mechanism.	反过来，政府鼓励普通公民拥有法律权利，作为保证社会稳定、制止小规模的腐败以及通过一个被党所控制的机制来诉求社会冤情的一种手段。


The new property rights law undoubtedly offers stronger protection to Chinese citizens, in particular homeowners, by equalizing the legal status of private and state property.	新的物权法无疑给中国公民提供了更强的保护，尤其是拥有房产的人，因为私有和国有的财产在法律上已经是平等的了。


Greater predictability and clarity in the property system is likely to bring economic benefits, reassure international investors, and signal the leadership’s determination to pursue further economic reforms.	财产体系更大的可预见性和透明度很可能会带来经济的利益，使国际投资者感到安心，并且标志着领导层进一步推动经济改革的决心。


Perhaps more importantly, the law indirectly consolidates, at least in theory, the concept of a private sphere in Chinese society: a physical and legal area protected from arbitrary state intervention that could potentially serve as a basis for demanding greater political participation.	也许更重要的是，这部法律至少是在理论上间接地巩固了中国社会中私有阶层的概念，即实际存在的、合法的领域，它不受政府随心所欲的干涉，将来可能成为诉求更大政治参与的一个基础。


What the new law will not do, however, is address the most serious property rights disputes: land seizures and forced evictions for urban redevelopment.	然而，这部新的法律将不能解决最严重的物权争执，即在旧城改造中没收土地和强制拆迁的做法。


Most of these protests stem from acts by local officials that were already clearly illegal under existing Chinese law.	大多数这种抗议是因为地方官员的行为，他们的做法在现有的中国法律下就已经是明显违法的了。


The real problem is to make officials respect legality.	真正的问题在于让官员们尊重法制。


With little oversight from the central government, and no independent judiciary or a free press to hold them accountable, local authorities in rural areas are often a law unto themselves.	因为中央政府的监督力度不大，以及没有独立的司法部门或一家自由的媒体来让他们负责任，对于农村的地方政府来说他们自己常常就是法律。


According to China’s Ministry of Land Resources, there were more than 90,000 cases of illegal land transfers last year, yet there were precious few prosecutions.	根据中国国土资源部的统计，去年有超过9万起的非法土地转让，然而被检举揭发的却少得可怜。