And, later this year, the international community is expected to agree on binding commitments to cut emissions and finance the fight against climate change.	而在今年晚些时候，国际社会有望就削减排放和为对抗气候变化提供融资等问题形成具有约束力的承诺协议���


But, although the signs are all pointing in the right direction, success is far from guaranteed.	但是，尽管各种信号都指向了正确的方向，成功还远非板上钉钉。


The gains could slip away if the moment is not seized.	如果不抓住时机，现在所取得的进步可能毁于一旦。


The real question is one of timing, and the irreversible damage that delays could inflict.	真正的问题是时间，以及拖延所可能造成的不可逆转的伤害。


More than 80% of the 140 countries surveyed in UNEP’s “Inclusive Wealth” report registered a deterioration in their stock of natural capital.	在UNEP “包容性财富”报告所调查的140个国家中，超过80%表示其自然资本存量遭到了破坏。


The economic damage resulting from environmental degradation is estimated to be roughly $7 trillion a year, much of it irreversible.	环境破坏所造成的经济损失据估计每年可达7万亿美元，其中大部分是不可逆转的。


The longer we wait, the worse our problems will become.	我们等待的时间越久，问题就变得越严重。


What is needed is a major international effort to realign financial and capital markets in ways that support sustainable development.	我们需要重大的国际举措协调金融和资本市场，使其支持可持续发展。


Our financial system’s current design all but guarantees what BoE Governor Mark Carney has called the “tragedy of horizons” – a market failure resulting from the inability of investors, companies, and governments to act on problems, such as climate change, with consequences that will be felt only far in the future.	目前，我们的金融体系的设计极有可能导致英格兰银行行长马克·卡尼所谓的“地平线悲剧”（tragedy of horizons）——因为投资者、公司和政府无力采取行动解决气候变化等问题而导致的市场失灵，造成遥远的未来才会被感受到的后果。


Policymakers and business leaders cite many reasons for focusing on immediate concerns.	决策者和商业领袖有很多理由关注当下的问题。


Indeed, the very policy actions needed to reduce the risks of another financial crisis force banks and asset managers to lend and invest for the short term, passing up often more profitable, but less liquid, longer-term opportunities.	事实上，降低发生又一场金融危机所需要的政策行动迫使银行和资产管理人从事短期贷款和投资，而放弃了常常更加有利可图但流动性更差的长期机会。


Short-term pressures will always be present, but they can be overcome with the proper tools: improved pricing of environmental risks, climate-sensitive credit ratings, environmental lender liability, and efforts to mitigate the environmental risks to financial stability.	短期压力永远存在，但可以通过合适的工具克服：改善环境风险定价、气候敏感的信用评级、环境贷款人责任、降低金融稳定的环境风险的措施等。


A sustainable future is within reach, but only if we put in place the policies that make it possible.	可持续未来是可以获得的，但必须有让它成为可能的政策。


Leaving Our Children Nothing	不给后代留遗憾


STOCKHOLM – Our generation has a unique opportunity.	斯德哥尔摩——我们这代人掌握的机会独一无二。


If we set our minds to it, we could be the first in human history to leave our children nothing: no greenhouse-gas emissions, no poverty, and no biodiversity loss.	如果我们下定决心，可以在人类历史上首次做到不给后代留下遗憾：没有温室气体排放、没有贫困，也没有生物多样性损失。


That is the course that world leaders set when they met at the United Nations in New York on September 25 to adopt the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).	这就是9月25日世界领袖在纽约联合国会面通过可持续发展目标（SDGs）时想做的事。


The 17 goals range from ending poverty and improving health to protecting the planet’s biosphere and providing energy for all.	这17项目标从结束贫困、改善健康到保护地球生物圈和为所有人提供能量。


They emerged from the largest summit in the UN’s history, the “Rio+20” conference in 2012, followed by the largest consultation the UN has ever undertaken.	它们起源于联合国史上规模最大的首脑会议2012年“里约+20”会议，随后进行了联合国有史以来最大规模的协商。


Unlike their predecessor, the Millennium Development Goals, which focused almost exclusively on developing countries, the new global goals are universal and apply to all countries equally.	与千年发展目标不同的是，千年发展目标只针对发展中国家，而新的全球目标则平等针对所有国家。


Their adoption indicates widespread acceptance of the fact that all countries share responsibility for the long-term stability of Earth’s natural cycles, on which the planet’s ability to support us depends.	它们的通过表明人们普遍接受所有国家共担责任维护地球自然周期的长期稳定，只有这样地球才能继续支持人类繁衍生息。


Indeed, the SDGs are the first development framework that recognizes a fundamental shift in our relationship with the planet.	事实上，可持续发展目标是承认人类与地球关系根本转变的首个发展框架。


For the first time in Earth’s 4.5-billion-year history, the main factors determining the stability of its systems are no longer the planet’s distance from the sun or the strength or frequency of its volcanic eruptions; they are economics, politics, and technology.	地球45亿年历史上第一次，决定其系统稳定性的主要因素不再是地球离太阳的距离抑或火山喷发的强度或频率； 而是经济、政治和技术。


For most of the past 12,000 years, Earth’s climate was relatively stable and the biosphere was resilient and healthy.	过去12，000年中的绝大部分时候，地球的气候相对稳定，生物圈富于适应性而且健康。


Geologists call this period the Holocene.	地质学家称上述时期为全新世。


More recently, we have moved into what many are calling the Anthropocene, a far less predictable era of human-induced environmental change.	近年来，我们已进入到许多人口中人类引起环境变化的“人类世”，这一时代更加不可预测。


This fundamental shift necessitates a new economic model.	上述根本性的转变需要建立新的经济模式。


No longer can we assume – as prevailing economic thinking has – that resources are endless.	我们不能继续沿用多数人想当然的观点，认为资源永远不会用光。


We may have once been a small society on a big planet. Today, we are a big society on a small planet.	也许我们曾经是大星球、小社会，但现在却是大社会、小星球。


And yet, far from being utopian, the SDGs are achievable by 2030.	但可持续发展目标可以到2030年实现，而且这绝不是什么乌托邦。


Some countries, including Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden are well on the way to achieving many of them, and much progress is being made elsewhere around the world.	某些国家，包括丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典，已经走在实现诸多目标的道路上，并且世界其他地方也取得了显著的进步。


In the last few decades, poverty has been halved.	过去几十年贫困已经减半。


Despite the headlines, violent conflict is on the wane. Diseases are being eradicated.	尽管媒体报道连篇累牍，暴力冲突实际表现出减弱的迹象。


The global population is set to stabilize.	全球人口将会趋于稳定。


The ozone layer is showing signs of recovery.	臭氧层正在恢复之中。


And the digital revolution is disrupting entire industries in ways that could benefit the planet.	数字革命正在以能为地球造福的方式对整个产业链进行重构。


Eradication of extreme poverty is well within our reach.	人类完全可能消除极端贫困。


Today, about 800 million people live on less than $1.25 a day.	今天，约有8亿人每天靠不到1. 25美元生活。


According to a recent World Bank report, about 30% of them live in India, a sleeping giant about to industrialize, given the right incentives.	世界银行最近一份报告显示其中约30%生活在印度，如果建立恰当的激励机制，这个沉睡的巨人将很快实现工业化。


Poverty is declining in other countries as well, including Nigeria (where 10% of the poorest live), China (home to 8%), and Bangladesh (6%).	其他国家的贫困人数也在下降，包括尼日利亚（那里生活着10%的全球最贫困人口）、中国（占贫困人口总量的8%）和孟加拉（6%）。


The main source of doubt concerns wealthy countries’ commitment to help developing countries cut greenhouse-gas emissions as they end poverty.	最主要的怀疑来自富国能否兑现其承诺，帮助发展中国家在结束贫困的同时减少温室气体排放。


Without the proper assistance, poor countries risk becoming locked into reliance on coal and oil for at least another generation, putting the entire planet in danger of out-of-control climate change.	没有适当的援助，贫穷国家可能还会有一代人越来越依赖煤炭和石油，从而使整个地球不得不面对失控的气候变化。


World leaders need to realize that the cost of transforming the global energy system is far less than coping with the consequences of burning the planet’s remaining fossil fuels.	世界领导人必须认识到改造全球能源体系的成本远低于燃烧地球剩余化石燃料所带来的后果。


Research published this month concluded that consuming all remaining hydrocarbons would result in the melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet, potentially raising sea levels by 58 meters.	本月发表的研究结论认为消耗所有剩余的碳氢化合物会导致整个南极冰盖融化，有可能让海平面上升58米。


And higher sea levels are just one potential threat.	而海平面上升仅仅是一个潜在威胁。


Drought and crop failure resulting from climate change, for example, could trigger violent conflict.	举例来讲，气候变化所导致的干旱和农作物减产可能引发暴力冲突。


Fortunately, there is abundant evidence that countries and industries can thrive without contributing to climate change.	幸运的是，有充分证据表明国家和行业的发展可以不加剧气候变化。


By 2030, several countries are likely to have freed themselves from fossil fuels, with Sweden, France, and Germany probably in the lead.	到2030年，一些国家很可能从化石燃料中解放出来，瑞典、法国和德国可能是上述方面的领先者。


These countries will have less air pollution, improved health and wellbeing, and thriving economies.	上述国家将减少空气污染、繁荣经济并改善福祉和健康。


They will also place less pressure on the biosphere.	这些国家将减少对生物圈的压力。


By some estimates, life on Earth has never been so diverse.	有人估计地球上的生命从未如此多样化。


The value of biodiversity is that it makes our ecosystems more resilient, which is a prerequisite for stable societies; its wanton destruction is akin to setting fire to our lifeboat.	生物多样性的价值在于令生态系统更富于弹性，这也是稳定社会的先决条件； 肆意破坏生物多样性就像在我们乘坐的救生艇上放火。


Ending poverty and reducing emissions, including by effectively managing land use and halting deforestation, will go a long way toward stopping the trend and reversing the damage.	结束贫困和减少排放，包括有效管理土地应用和制止森林砍伐，将在很长一段时间内阻止这一趋势、扭转破坏效果。


Companies such as Ikea and Unilever are leading the way with genuine efforts to assume responsibility for the planet’s climate, resources, and ecosystems.	像宜家和联合利华这样的领导企业正在为对全球气候、资源和生态系统负责做着扎实的工作。


One reason is that rising consumer awareness makes ecosystem degradation bad for business.	原因之一是消费者认知不断提高导致生态系统退化有损业务。


At the same time, all industries, from information technology to agriculture, depend on services provided by nature.	同时，所有行业，从信息技术到农业，都依赖于大自然提供的服务。


Managing forests, rivers, grasslands, and coral reefs in sustainable ways makes them more resilient and increases their ability to absorb greenhouse gases, which is good for business.	以持续性更强的方式管理森林、河流、草原和珊瑚礁能增强企业活力和温室气体吸收能力，而这更有利于企业开展业务。


We are the first generation that can make an informed choice about the direction our planet will take.	我们这代人第一次能对地球的方向做出明智的选择。


Either we leave our descendants an endowment of zero poverty, zero fossil-fuel use, and zero biodiversity loss, or we leave them facing a tax bill from Earth that could wipe them out.	我们或者留给后代零贫困、零化石燃料应用、零生物多样性丧失，或者留给他们可能将人类彻底消灭的地球欠账。


Another Great Leap Forward for Development	另一次发展飞跃


MADRID – Next month, the world will achieve a milestone for global development efforts.	马德里——下个月，全球发展工作将树起一座里程碑。


The United Nations General Assembly will adopt the Sustainable Development Goals, an ambitious set of global objectives expected to improve the lives of millions of people by 2030.	联合国大会即将通过到2030年旨在改善全球成百上千万人生活的一系列雄心勃勃的可持续发展目标。


The fact that the SDGs are being established on the UN’s 70th anniversary could not be more appropriate.	值此联合国成立70周年之际确立可持续发展目标可谓恰当。


Though the UN’s record over the last seven decades has not been perfect, with many instances of inadequate responses, its success in engaging the world in the pursuit of shared objectives like development has been impressive.	虽然过去七十年联合国的记录并不完美，时常在很多情况下反应不足，但它在团结全世界实现发展等共同目标上取得的成功却令人印象深刻。


In 2000, the UN adopted a development agenda underpinned by the so-called Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and guided by the principle that no one should have to suffer the consequences of extreme poverty.	2000年，联合国通过了一项由所谓千年发展目标支持的发展计划，原则是没有人应该承受极端贫困所带来的后果。


At that time, very few people believed that the goals could be attained by the 2015 target date.	当时，没有多少人认为能在规定的2015年目标日期前实现这一目标。


But, although poverty has not been eliminated, there has been significant progress – and some major victories.	但时至今日虽然贫困尚未被彻底消灭，但我们已经取得了显著的进步——和重大的胜利。


Since 1990 (the reference year for measuring improvement), the number of people living in extreme poverty (living on less than $1.25 a day) has fallen by 33%, from 1.9 billion to 836 million worldwide, with most of that progress coming after the MDGs entered into effect.	自1990年（衡量进步的基准年限）以来，生活在极端贫困（每天生活费不到1. 25美元）中的全球人口已经从19亿下降到8.


The number of people with access to safe drinking water has increased by 15%, to 1.9 billion.	36亿，下降了33%之多，其中大部分进步在千年发展目标生效之后取得。


Infant mortality has been cut by more than half, and maternal mortality by 45%.	能喝上安全饮用水的人数增长15%达到19亿。 产妇死亡率降低了45%，婴儿死亡率则减少一半以上。


Likewise, primary-school enrollment rates have risen from 83% to 91% since 2000.	同样，2000年来小学入学率已从83%上升到91%。


The number of new HIV/AIDS infections has dropped by 40%.	新增HIV/艾滋病感染病例已经实现了40%的下降。


And official development assistance from developed countries has risen by 66%.	发达国家官方发展援助已经出现了66%的增长。


These figures show that, with well-defined objectives and real action, it is possible to bring about big changes.	以上数据表明明确的目标和切实的行动可以带来巨大的变化。


This idea was instrumental in designing the post-2015 development agenda.	制定后2015年发展计划的想法非常有启发。


The SDGs build on the MDGs’ success, while adding a new dimension: sustainability.	可持续发展目标以千年发展目标的成功为基础，但又增加了可持续性这一全新维度。


World leaders now recognize that efforts to meet development needs today must not jeopardize future generations’ prospects.	世界领导人现在认识到满足今天的发展需要不能以损害子孙后代的未来为代价。


The sustainability dimension brings with it a universality that was lacking from the MDGs.	可持续性维度有着千年发展目标所欠缺的普遍性。


Developed countries are no longer just enablers of progress, earmarking a percentage of their GDP to support the efforts of developing countries to reduce poverty, improve health, and raise living standards.	发达国家不再只是进步的促成者，而是将国内GDP的一定百分比专用于支持发展中国家消除贫困、改善健康状况和提高生活水平的目标。


Instead, they must be committed and active participants in the effort to achieve the agreed goals, in some cases even modifying their own domestic policies.	相反，他们必须积极参与（有时甚至需要修改自身的国内政策）才能实现既定的目标。


In this sense, the SDGs more clearly reflect the conviction, upheld by the UN, that all of us are global citizens.	从这个意义上，可持续发展目标更明确地反映了联合国推崇的理念，即所有人都是世界公民的原则。


This conviction lies behind the establishment of international humanitarian law and the supranational courts that address violations of it.	这是制定国际人道主义法律及建立超国家法院惩治违法行为背后的原则。


And it underpinned the adoption of the “responsibility to protect” principle, which demands that the international community defend a country’s people from mass-atrocity crimes when their own government fails to do so.	在它的支持下通过了“保护责任”，即要求国际社会在国家政府无力保护民众免遭大规模暴行的情况下承担起这个职责。


It comes down to personal dignity.	这归根结底属于个人尊严的范畴。


No matter who you are or where you were born, you have a basic right to be protected from brutal crimes like genocide or the undue suffering of extreme poverty.	无论你是谁，出生在哪里，都有最基本的权利免受种族灭绝等残酷罪行或极端贫困的折磨。


Future generations, too, deserve personal dignity – including that afforded by a clean and healthy environment.	后代子孙同样应当拥有个人尊严——包括清洁健康的环境。


UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has emphasized personal dignity in the discussions leading to the adoption of the SDGs, even asking Pope Francis to address the General Assembly on the subject at its next meeting.	联合国秘书长潘基文已经在通过可持续发展目标前的讨论中强调了个人尊严的重要性，甚至邀请佛朗西斯教皇在联大下次会议上就此问题发表讲话。


So what exactly is on the next development agenda?	那么下一份发展计划目标究竟是什么？


The draft agenda, on which agreement was reached at the beginning of this month, contains 17 goals – including ending poverty in all its forms, achieving food security, promoting sustainable agriculture, providing quality education to all, ensuring access to energy and clean water, and adopting urgent measures to combat climate change – backed by 169 targets.	本月初刚刚达成一致的计划草案罗列了17项目标——包括结束一切形式的贫困、实现粮食安全、促进农业可持续发展、为所有人提供高质量教育、确保供应能源和清洁用水和采取紧急措施应对气候变化——背后共有169项目标支持该计划草案。


Fulfilling this ambitious agenda will require realistic and effective evaluation mechanisms that help reveal the best policies and keep countries’ efforts on track.	实现这份雄心勃勃的计划需要切实有效的评估机制，确保各国能够采纳最佳政策。


According to the draft agenda, the monitoring procedures will be directed by individual countries, so that each government can tailor them according to national priorities.	计划草案规定监督程序将由各国政府负责主导，以便各国政府能对其进行调整以适应国内政策的需要。


But it is up to the international community to ensure that all governments establish specific goals and deadlines for meeting them.	但国际社会必须确保各国政府制定具��的目标和期限来实现这些目标。


Without strong accountability mechanisms, the SDGs will amount to little more than an exercise in raising awareness, effectively subordinating the health, dignity, and prosperity of all humanity to short-term national interests.	没有强有力的问责机制，可持续发展目标就会沦为一项宣传活动，致使短期国家利益凌驾于全人类的健康、尊严和繁荣之上。


The upcoming SDG summit, which will bring together the largest concentration of heads of state and government in the history of the UN, presents the ideal opportunity to establish such mechanisms.	即将召开的可持续发展目标峰会将会聚联合国历史上数量最多的国家和政府首脑，为建立上述机制提供了理想的机会。


The SDGs are extremely ambitious.	可持续发展目标极其雄心勃勃。


With a sustained commitment from all countries, developed and developing alike, the world can ensure that it celebrates another great leap forward in 2030.	在发达国家和发展中国家的持续努力下，世界可以确保在2030年欢庆另一次重大飞跃。


Development’s Digital Divide	发展的数字鸿沟


STOCKHOLM – On September 25, world leaders will gather in New York to adopt the new Sustainable Development Goals.	斯托克霍姆—9月25日，全世界领导人将齐聚纽约，启动新的可持续发展目标（SDG）。


The SDGs, comprising 17 goals and 169 related targets, are the result of extensive political negotiations, and will set the benchmarks over the next 15 years for achieving the international community’s overarching objective: to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere.”	SDG由17个目标（goal）和169个相关小目标（target）组成，它们是一系列政治谈判的结果，将为未来15年实现国际社会的最重要的大目标（objective）——“结束任何地区、任何形式的贫困”奠定基础。


The SDGs are noble and certainly ambitious.	SDG是高尚的，当然也非常宏大。


And yet, in a time of profound scientific and technological change, they remain remarkably conventional.	但是，在这个科学和技术深刻变革的时代，它们仍显得非常传统。


Information technology – this century’s defining social and economic development – receives only a brief mention (in one of the sub-targets).	信息技术——本世纪的代表性社会和经济发展趋势——只是略有提及（在一个次级小目标中）。


Nowhere in the document is there even a hint of the revolutionary role that the nascent explosion in connectivity, information, and data could play in ending poverty.	整套SDG中没有任何一处涉及到方兴未艾的连通性、信息和数据大爆炸在结束贫困方面可以起到怎样的革命性作用。


There can be no doubting the impact that information technology will have on economic growth.	毫无疑问，信息技术对经济增长具有重大影响。


Governments, politicians, and international organizations must harness the potential of the Internet to serve global development and individual empowerment.	政府、政客和跨政府组织必须利用好互联网的潜力，使服务于全球发展和个体赋权。


Issues concerning security and governance have dominated discussions of cyber policy over the past few years.	过去几年中，关于安全和治理的问题主宰了网络政策的讨论。


This is to some extent justifiable: The breadth of topics is staggering, ranging from international norms for state behavior in cyberspace to challenges like cybercrime and growing censorship.	这不无道理：这个话题范围甚广，从网络空间中的国家行为国际规范到网络犯罪和日益增加的审查等挑战无所不包。


But it is also clear that the countries that will gain the most from the ongoing information revolution are those that manage to keep their eyes on the real prize: using this explosion in technology to strengthen their economies and improve the lives of their citizens.	但同样明确的是，将从正在展开的信息革命中获益最多的国家是那些将目光聚焦在真正的好处上的国家：利用这一技术大爆炸强化经济、改善公民生活。


A 2009 study by the World Bank found that a 10% increase in fixed broadband penetration boosts a developing economy’s GDP by about 1.4%.	世界银行的一份2009年的研究发现，固定宽带渗透率增加10%能够提振发展中经济体GDP增加1. 4%左右。


These findings likely vastly understate the impact of the technology; after all, much of the developing world is seeing a rapid rollout of mobile broadband, with much higher capacity than what was available at the time of the study.	这些发现可能大大低估了这项技术的影响； 毕竟，许多发展中国家移动宽带迅速普及，而移动宽带的力量比这份研究所处的时代大得多。


The phenomenon is most evident in Asia and Africa – which together account for three-quarters of the global growth in smartphone use this year.	亚洲和非洲的事实最能说明问题。 今年，亚非两洲加起来贡献了全球智能手机增长的四分之三。


As smartphone subscriptions increase from 2.9 billion to 7.7 billion worldwide in the next five years, 80% of the new accounts are expected to be opened by users on these two continents.	在未来五年，智能手机用户将从29亿增加到77亿，其中80%的新用户预计将来自亚非两洲。


The widespread adoption of information technology in the developing world opens up myriad possibilities; we are only at the beginning.	发展中世界广泛采用信息技术开启了无限种可能； 而我们才刚刚站在起点。


Data analysis has been used to fight Ebola in West Africa, and mobile phone networks have been used to bring modern banking to unserved populations throughout the developing world.	数据分析已经在西非与埃博拉的战争中派上了用场，移动电话网络也已经被用于给整个发展中国家得不到银行服务的人口带去现代银行服务。


These new technologies empower people – most notably the rapidly growing youth population – and create new avenues for economic and social development.	这些新技术实现了个人赋权——特别是给快速增长的年轻人口——也让经济和社会发展走上了康庄大道。


Indeed, mobile connectivity may turn out to be the most important development tool ever for the billions of people in emerging Africa and Asia.	事实上，移动连通性也许是新兴非洲和亚洲几十亿人有史以来最重要的发展工具。


Of course, there will still be a digital divide.	当然，数字鸿沟将仍然存在。


But, increasingly, it will be generational rather than geographical.	但是，这一鸿沟将日益从地理鸿沟变成代沟。


Within a decade, the majority of young people in Africa will likely be as well connected as those in Europe or North America.	不出十年，非洲的年轻人将获得与欧洲和北美的年轻人一样的连通性。


This will change the world profoundly.	这将给全世界带来深远变化。


The big question is whether governments are aware of the potential power of this development.	大问题是政府是否认识到这一发展趋势的潜在力量。


If the SDGs are any indication, it is likely that they are not.	如果SDG可以作为一个指标，那么答案也许是否定的。


The goals and targets that the world is about to embrace do not adequately reflect the significance of this epochal change.	世界即将采取的目标和小目标并不能充分反映这一时代变化的重要性。


The absence of awareness is also reflected in the preparations for a high-level UN meeting on international policy concerning the Internet and development that will take place in December.	缺乏清醒的认识也反映在将与12月举行的联合国关于互联网和发展的国际政策的高规格会议的准备工作中。


The event, a review of the progress made since the 2005 World Summit on the Information Society, is the culmination of a three-year negotiation process.	这次会议将评估自2005年世界信息社会峰会（World Summit on the Information Society）所取得的进步，是一个三年的谈判过程的高潮。


Unfortunately, political wrangling over issues of Internet governance and cybersecurity have dominated the preparations for the meeting, and there has been little discussion of the revolutionary possibilities that an open, dynamic, and free Internet can provide.	不幸的是，关于互联网治理和网络安全等问题的政治争论主宰了会议的准备工作，而对于一个开放的、有活力的、自由的互联网所能带来的革命性影响，却鲜有讨论。


Governments are being left behind as entrepreneurs and innovators race ahead.	政府已经被不断进步的企业家和创新家抛在了身后。


But maximizing the potential of the new technology requires the stable and predictable operating environment, as well as the support for basic research, that only governments can provide.	但实现这项新技术潜力的最大化需要稳定而可预测的经营环境，以及对基础研究的支持，而这些条件只有政府才能提供。


It is time for world leaders to put the potential of the Internet at the top of the development agenda.	世界领导人应该将互联网的潜力作为发展日程的重点。


A Year of Ocean Regeneration	海洋再生之年


OXFORD – The importance of the world’s ocean cannot be overstated.	发自牛津——海洋对全球重要性是怎么强调都不为过的。


They supply 50% of the oxygen we breathe, feed billions of people, and provide livelihoods for millions more.	我们呼吸的氧气中有50%来自于海洋，海里的食材养活了几十亿人，还为另外数百万人提供了生计。


They are the great biological pump of global atmospheric and thermal regulation, and the driver of the water and nutrient cycles. And they are among the most powerful tools for mitigating the effects of climate change.	大海是推动全球大气和热调节的巨型生物泵，也是水和养分循环的驱动器，还是减缓气候变化影响的最有力工具之一。


In short, the ocean is a critical ally, and we must do everything in our power to safeguard them.	总之，海洋是一个重要的盟友，我们必须尽全力去保护它。


This is all the more important, given the unprecedented and unpredictable threats that we currently face.	鉴于我们目前所面临着诸多前所未有和不可预知的威胁，上述几点变得更为重要。


Though the ocean has been integral to slowing climate change, absorbing over 30% of the greenhouse-gas emissions and 90% of the excess heat generated since the Industrial Revolution, the cost has been huge.	虽然海洋已是减缓气候变化过程中不可或缺的一部分，吸收了自工业革命以来所产生的30％温室气体排放量和90％多余热量，但因此付出的代价也是巨大的。


Ocean acidification and warming has been occurring at alarming rates, and are already having a serious impact on some of our most precious marine ecosystems – an impact that will only intensify.	海洋酸化和气候变暖正在以惊人的速度推进，并且已经对一些我们最宝贵的海洋生态系统造成了严重影响——而且这种影响只会不断加剧。


Today, vast swaths of the world are experiencing what is likely to be the strongest El Niño on record.	今天，世界上广大大片正在经��着可能是有史以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象。


The adverse weather resulting from the phenomenon – which originates in the Pacific, but affects the ocean worldwide – is expected to affect adversely over 60 million people this year, compounding the misery wrought last year.	由这一现象产生的恶劣天气——起源于太平洋地区，却影响着全球所有的海洋 ，预计今年将对超过6000万人产生不利影响，延续着去年的种种痛苦。


It is a sobering reminder of our vulnerability to both natural and human-induced shocks to the earth’s systems.	这发人深省地提醒着我们：人类在自然和人为导致的地球系统冲击面前是何等脆弱。


Despite all of this, we continue to degrade our oceans through the relentless destruction of habitats and biodiversity, including through overfishing and pollution.	尽管发生了这一切，我们却继续用包括过度捕捞和污染在内的各种作为来无情破坏着海洋栖息地和生物多样性，导致海洋退化。


Disturbingly, recent reports indicate that the ocean may contain one kilogram of plastics for every three kilograms of fish by 2025.	令人不安的是，最近的报告表明，到2025年海洋里可能每3公斤鱼就会与1公斤塑料共存。


These actions are facilitated by chronic failures of global governance; for example, one-fifth of all fish taken from the ocean is caught illegally.	这些行动是由全球治理的长期失能所导致的； 举个例子，海洋捕捞的鱼获中有1/5是来自非法捕捞的。


Urgent action must be taken not just to address climate change broadly by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, but also to enhance the health and resilience of our oceans.	我们不仅要通过减少温室气体排放来广泛地应对气候变化，还要增强我们海洋的健康和弹性。


Fortunately, in 2015 – a watershed year for global commitments – world leaders established conservation and restoration of the world’s oceans as a key component of the new United Nations development agenda, underpinned by 17 so-called Sustainable Development Goals.	幸运的是，在2015年 ——一个全球承诺的分水岭 ——全球领袖们将全球海洋的保护和恢复设为新联合国发展议程的一个重要组成部分，并以17项所谓可持续发展目标为其构筑了基础。


Specifically, SDG 14 commits world leaders to end overfishing, eliminate illegal fishing, establish more marine protected areas, reduce plastic litter and other sources of marine pollution, and increase ocean resilience to acidification.	具体来说，第14号可持续发展目标协议要求世界各国领导人结束过度捕捞，杜绝非法捕捞，建立更多的海洋保护区，减少塑料垃圾以及其他海洋污染来源，并增强海洋对酸化现象的抵抗力。


The Global Ocean Commission celebrated this strong endorsement of urgent action to protect the ocean, which closely reflects the set of proposals contained in the Global Ocean Commission’s 2014 report From Decline to Recovery: A Rescue Package for the Global Ocean.	全球海洋委员会对这一采取紧急行动保护海洋的坚定承诺表示欢迎，该承诺也对包含在全球海洋委员会2014年所发布的《从衰退到复苏：一份全球海洋救援计划》报告中的一系列建议作出了密切回应。


So the world now has an agreed roadmap for ocean recovery.	所以现在已经有了一份多方同意的海洋复苏路线图。


But how far and how fast we travel is yet to be determined.	但这个进程将走得多远和多快却尚未确定。


And the task ahead – translating admirable and ambitious commitments into effective collaborative action at the local, national, and international levels – is immense.	人们所面临的任务——将令人钦佩的，雄心勃勃的承诺转化为地方，国家和国际层面的有效合作行动——是非常艰巨的。


The challenge is compounded by the weak and fragmented state of global ocean governance.	这一挑战又因全球海洋治理的薄弱和零散状态而变得更加困难。


Unlike other SDGs – such as those related to health, education, or hunger – there is no single international body charged with driving forward the implementation of the ocean SDG.	跟其他可持续发展目标——比如那些有关健康，教育，或饥饿 ——不同的是，并没有一个单一的国际机构来主导推动海洋可持续发展目标的实施。


As a result, it is not clear who will be responsible for monitoring and measuring progress and ensuring accountability.	因此目前尚不清楚由谁来负责监测和衡量进展并确保问责。


To ensure that SDG 14 does not fall by the wayside, the governments of Fiji and Sweden proposed convening a high-level UN conference on ocean and seas in Fiji, with Swedish support, in June 2017.	为了确保第14号可持续发展目标不至于被弃置一边，斐济和瑞典政府建议在后者的支持下于2017年6月在斐济召开高层次的联合国海洋会议。


Their proposal was subsequently co-sponsored by 95 countries and adopted unanimously in a UN General Assembly resolution.	两国的提议随后得到了95个国家的联合赞助支持，并在联合国大会得到一致通过。


By drawing attention to the progress being made toward meeting SDG 14 targets and shining a spotlight on where results are lagging, the conference will provide a much-needed “accountability moment.”	通过将注意力导向为实现第14号可持续发展目标所取得的进展，并点出进程究竟卡在了何处，本次会议将提供一个亟需的“责任时刻”。


At the same time, by bringing together relevant stakeholders, it will help to catalyze deeper cooperation among governments, civil society, and the private sector.	与此同时，通过将利益相关者联结在一起，它将有助于促进政府，民间社会和私营部门之间的更深层次合作。


This is a promising step forward, reflecting the tremendous momentum that efforts to protect the ocean have gained in recent years.	这是向前迈出的可喜一步，反映出保护海洋的众多努力在最近几年已经产生了巨大的推动力。


As the Global Ocean Commission’s work comes to a natural conclusion, its many partners and supporters will be working hard to sustain this momentum, ensuring that building healthy and resilient oceans remains a global priority until it is a global reality.	随着全球海洋委员会的工作得出了一个自然而然的结论，它的众多合作伙伴和支持者将努力维持这一势头，确保建立健康和有回复力的海洋仍然作为一个全球优先事务，并最终将其变成一个全球现实。


The key to success, according to the Global Ocean Commission’s final report, will be the creation of an independent, transparent mechanism for monitoring, measuring, and reporting on the essential actions needed to achieve the SDG 14 targets, as well as additional UN conferences between now and 2030.	而根据全球海洋委员会的最终报告，成功的关键在于建立一个独立，透明的机制去监察，测量和报告实现第14项可持续发展目标所需的行动，以及在当前到2030年间召开为此另外的联合国会议。


Current and future generations alike need – and deserve – a healthy, resilient ocean.	当前和今后几代人都需要——并值得拥有——一个健康的，有回复力的海洋。


Growing awareness of – and strong commitments to resolve – the challenges facing our oceans is heartening.	越来越多的对我们所面临的海洋挑战的认识——以及解决问题的坚定承诺——是令人振奋的。


But it is just the beginning.	但它仅仅是个开始。


One hopes that 2016 turns out to be the year when the world enters a new era of ocean regeneration.	人们也希望：2016年能成为世界海洋迈入再生新时代的一年。


Why the Sustainable Development Goals Matter	可持续发展目标为何重要


ROME – Following the progress made under the Millennium Development Goals, which guided global development efforts in the years 2000-2015, the world’s governments are currently negotiating a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the period 2016-2030.	罗马—指导2000—2015年全球发展政策的千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals，MDG）取得了巨大的进展，在此基础上，全世界政府正在讨论2016—2030年的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals，SDG）。


The MDGs focused on ending extreme poverty, hunger, and preventable disease, and were the most important global development goals in the United Nations’ history.	MDG关注结束极端贫困、饥饿和可预防疾病，也是联合国历史上最重要的全球发展目标。


The SDGs will continue the fight against extreme poverty, but will add the challenges of ensuring more equitable development and environmental sustainability, especially the key goal of curbing the dangers of human-induced climate change.	SDG将继续致力于消灭极端贫困，但也会加上保证更平等的发展和环境可持续性等挑战，特别是遏制认为导致气候变化这一关键目标。


But will a new set of goals help the world shift from a dangerous business-as-usual path to one of true sustainable development?	但一组新目标能够帮助世界从危险的“老方一帖”模式转向真正的可持续发展模式吗？


Can UN goals actually make a difference?	联合国的目标能够造成实际区别吗？


The evidence from the MDGs is powerful and encouraging.	来自MDG的证据强大而令人鼓舞。


In September 2000, the UN General Assembly adopted the “Millennium Declaration,” which included the MDGs.	2000年9月，联合国大会通过了《千禧宣言》（Millennium Declaration），MDG就包括在这个宣言中。


Those eight goals became the centerpiece of the development effort for poor countries around the world.	MDG的八个目标成为全球贫穷国家发展政策的核心。


Did they really make a difference?	它们真的造成了区别吗？


The answer seems to be yes.	答案似乎是肯定的。


There has been marked progress on poverty reduction, disease control, and increased access to schooling and infrastructure in the poorest countries of the world, especially in Africa, as a result of the MDGs.	在减贫、疾病控制和普及全球最贫困国家（特别是非洲国家）的教育和基础设施等方面，MDG确实带来了令人瞩目的成就。


Global goals helped to galvanize a global effort.	全球目标有助于刺激全球行动。


How did they do this?	这是如何做到的？


Why do goals matter?	为何这些目标很重要？


No one has ever put the case for goal-based success better than John F. Kennedy did 50 years ago.	没有人比50年前的约翰·肯尼迪更好地说明了基于目标的成功。


In one of the greatest speeches of the modern US presidency, delivered in June 1963, Kennedy said: “By defining our goal more clearly, by making it seem more manageable and less remote, we can help all people to see it, to draw hope from it and to move irresistibly towards it.”	在1963年6月的那次堪称现代美国总统最伟大演讲之一的讲话上，肯尼迪说：“通过清晰地定义我们的目标，通过让目标变得更加便于管理、更加接近，我们能够让所有人都看到它，都能够从它身上获得希望，并坚定不移地向它前进。 ”


Setting goals is important for many reasons.	制定目标很重要，原因有很多。


First, they are essential for social mobilization.	首先，目标是社会动员的关键。


The world needs to be oriented in one direction to fight poverty or to help achieve sustainable development, but it is very hard in our noisy, disparate, divided, crowded, congested, distracted, and often overwhelmed world to mount a consistent effort to achieve any of our common purposes.	世界需要有人指引它朝一个方向迈进，消灭贫困、实现可持续发展，但在这个嘈杂、不同、分裂、拥挤、拥塞、涣散并且常常不知所措的世界中，持续地向我们的共同目标迈进是十分困难的。


Adopting global goals helps individuals, organizations, and governments worldwide to agree on the direction – essentially, to focus on what really matters for our future.	实施全球目标有助于全世界的个体、组织和政府首先在在方向上达成一致，专注对我们的未来真正重要的事情。


A second function of goals is to create peer pressure.	目标的第二个功能是制造横向比较压力。


With the adoption of the MDGs, political leaders were publicly and privately questioned on the steps they were taking to end extreme poverty.	实施MDG后，政治领袖所采取的消灭极端贫困的措施会受到公开和不公开的质疑。


A third way that goals matter is to spur epistemic communities – networks of expertise, knowledge, and practice – into action around sustainable-development challenges.	目标之所以重要的第三个原因是它能刺激认知共同体（epistemic communities）——由专家、知识和实践组成的网络——转化为围绕可持续发展挑战的行动。


When bold goals are set, those communities of knowledge and practice come together to recommend practical pathways to achieve results.	当我们制定了大胆的目标时，知识界和实践届就会合作给出务实的实现目标的路径。


Finally, goals mobilize stakeholder networks.	最后，目标能动员相关利益者网络。


Community leaders, politicians, government ministries, the scientific community, leading nongovernmental organizations, religious groups, international organizations, donor organizations, and foundations are all motivated to come together for a common purpose.	社区领袖、政客、政府部长、科学界、领先非政府组织、宗教组织、国际组织、赞助组织和基金会都被动员起来，齐心协力向共同目标努力。


That kind of multi-stakeholder process is essential for tackling the complex challenges of sustainable development and the fight against poverty, hunger, and disease.	这一多重相关利益方过程对于应对可持续发展以及消灭极端贫困、饥饿和疾病的复杂挑战至关重要。


Kennedy himself demonstrated leadership through goal setting a half-century ago in his quest for peace with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.	半个世纪前，肯尼迪本人通过在冷战高峰期寻求与苏联和解的过程中设定目标表现了他的领导力。


In a series of speeches starting with his famous commencement address at American University in Washington, DC, Kennedy built a campaign for peace on a combination of vision and pragmatic action, focusing on a treaty to end nuclear tests.	从著名的华盛顿美国大学（American University）毕业典礼演讲开始，肯尼迪在一系列演讲中构建了一场以结束核试验为核心、将愿景与务实行动相结合的和平宣传。


Just seven weeks after the peace speech, the Americans and Soviets signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty, a landmark agreement to slow the Cold War arms race that would have been unthinkable only months earlier.	和平演讲后不出七周，美国和苏联就签署了部分禁止核试验条约（Limited Test Ban Treaty），这是放缓冷战军备竞赛的里程碑式的协议，并且在此之前几个月，这还是不可想象的。


Though the LTBT certainly did not end the Cold War, it provided proof that negotiation and agreement were possible, and laid the groundwork for future pacts.	尽管部分禁止核试验条约并未结束冷战，但它证明了谈判和协议是可能的，并为未来条约奠定了基础。


But there is nothing inevitable about achieving large-scale results after stating a goal or goals.	但在宣布了一个或多个目标后实现大规模成果绝不是板上钉钉。


Stating goals is merely the first step in implementing a plan of action.	宣布目标只是实施行动计划的第一步。


Good policy design, adequate financing, and new institutions to oversee execution must follow goal setting.	制定目标后还必须有好的政策设计、充足的资金和监督执行的新机构跟进。


And, as outcomes occur, they must be measured, and strategies must be rethought and adapted in a continuing loop of policy feedback, all under the pressures and motivations of clear goals and timelines.	此外，在取得结果时，必须予以衡量，并在持续的政策反馈环中反思和调整战略，所有这一切都在清晰的目标和时间线的压力和驱动下实现。


Just as the world has made tremendous progress with the MDGs, we can find our way to achieving the SDGs.	世界已经在ＭＤＧ的指导下取得了巨大的进步，同理，我们可以找到实现SDG之路。


Despite the cynicism, confusion, and obstructionist politics surrounding efforts to fight poverty, inequality, and environmental degradation, a breakthrough is possible.	尽管犬儒主义、混淆和妨碍政治阻挠着消灭贫困、不平等和环境恶化的斗争，但我们仍有可能取得突破。


The world’s major powers may appear unresponsive, but that can change.	世界主要力量也许响应并不积极，但这可以改变。


Ideas count.	思想很重要。


They can affect public policy far more profoundly and rapidly than detractors can imagine.	它们能远比批评者所想象的更加深远和迅速地影响公共政策。


In his final address to the UN in September 1963, Kennedy described contemporary peacemaking by quoting Archimedes, who, “in explaining the principles of the lever, was said to have declared to his friends: ‘Give me a place where I can stand – and I shall move the world.’”	在1963年9月在联合国所做的最终演讲中，肯尼迪引用阿基米德的话描述了当代和解。 他说，阿基米德“为了解释杠杆原理，据说向他的朋友宣称：‘给我一个支点，我可以撬动整个地球。


Fifty years on, it is our generation’s turn to move the world towards sustainable development.	’”五十年后，轮到我们这一代人用撬动地球走向可持续发展了。


Globalizing Sustainable Development	可持续发展的全球化


WASHINGTON, DC – The question of how the world can end extreme poverty and improve human wellbeing will take on new urgency in 2015, as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) expire and a new set of goals – the proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – are finalized.	华盛顿—世界如何结束极端贫困、改善人类福祉的问题将在2015年呈现新的紧迫性——今年，千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals）将到期，新一组目标——计划中的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals）将制定完成。


United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s “Synthesis Report,” outlining the main elements of the post-2015 agenda, provides strong guidance regarding what sustainable development should look like and what world leaders must do over the next 15 years to achieve it.	联合国秘书长潘基文的《综合报告》（Synthesis Report）列出了2015年后日程的主要要素，就可持续发展应该是怎样的、世界领导人应该在未来15年做些什么以实现可持续发展的问题给出了指引。


After two years of crafting the “what” of sustainable development, the year ahead must focus on how to get it done.	在经历了为期两年的确定可持续发展的“什么”问题后，未来一年必须专注于如何实现可持续发展的问题。


The central ambition is bold: the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030.	核心目标是宏大的：2030年结束极端贫困。


To make that happen, the SDGs will need to shift away from the twentieth-century model of development, in which rich countries gave money to poor countries, mostly to feed the hungry and improve health and education.	要实现这一目标，可持续发展目标需要摆脱二十世纪的发展模式——即富裕国家出钱接济贫穷国家，主要解决养活饥民、改善健康和教育条件的问题。


The MDGs were remarkably successful in several of these areas.	千年发展目标在这些领域取得了令人瞩目的成功。


But the picture has changed significantly since then.	但情况已经发生了重大变化。


A new set of emerging economies – including China, India, Brazil, and South Africa – is racing to modernize.	一些新兴经济体——包括中国、印度、巴西和南非——正在竞相朝现代化迈进。


The private sector is assuming a greater role in economic development.	私人部门正在经济发展中扮演更重要的角色。


And environmental degradation is threatening the gains of recent decades.	环境破坏正在威胁近几十年来所取得的进展。


The SDGs will have to transcend the idea of a planet divided starkly between those who give aid and those who receive it.	可持续发展目标必须超越一个观念——地球泾渭分明地分成两个阵营，一个输出援助，一个获得援助。


The new goals must account for a world undergoing rapid globalization, in which all countries have assets as well as needs.	新目标必须考虑到世界正在经历快速全球化，所有国家都有资产，也有需求。


Today’s challenges go beyond health, food, and education.	今天的挑战不只局限于��康、食品和教育。


The SDGs will have to integrate these concerns with the demands of the growing global middle class, the effects of shifting political and economic power, and the challenges of environmental sustainability, including climate change.	可持续发展目标必须将这些考虑与日益成长的全球中产阶级的需求、变化的政治和经济实力的效应以及包括气候变化在内的环境可持续性挑战结合起来。


Three ingredients will be essential to achieving the goals: financing mechanisms, trade, and partnerships.	这三个成分对于实现目标至关重要：为制度、贸易和合作融资。


Forty years after rich countries promised to dedicate 0.7% of GDP to aid, their commitments remain at less than half that level.	四十年前，富裕国家承诺将0. 7%的GDP用于援助，四十年后，他们只兑现了不到一半。


Though most emerging economies no longer rely on aid, it remains crucially important for low-income countries.	尽管大部分新兴经济体不再依赖于援助，但对低收入国家来说，援助仍具有关键重要性。


That said, even if aid targets were met, the shift to sustainable development will cost much more than what aid alone can cover.	尽管如此，即使援助目标实现，向可持续发展的转型所需要的成本远远不是光靠援助就足够的。


We need to look for new sources of funds, ensure that government spending is aligned with the sustainable-development agenda, and target those areas where the money can do the most good.	我们需要寻找新资金源，确保政府支出与可持续发展日程一致，并定位于资金用场最大的领域。


In much of the developing world, investing in sustainable development is complicated by the fact that tax revenues are too low to pay for what is needed.	在大部分发达国家中，投资于可持续发展因为税收收入太低、不足以满足需要而变得十分复杂。


This is not always a matter of raising tax rates; it is also often a matter of collecting what people and companies owe.	这未必是一个提高税率的问题； 也往往是征收人们和公司之所欠的问题。


Closing loopholes and cracking down on evasion are two ways to ensure that taxes are collected.	填补漏洞、打击避税是两种确保收税的办法。


The OECD estimates that a dollar of aid spent on improving tax collection yields an average of $350 in revenue.	经合组织估计，在改善征税给予一美元援助，平均可以产生350美元的收入。


A shared commitment that builds on initiatives by the G-8 would make tax evasion that relies on tax havens or money laundering harder to hide.	基于G-8计划的共同承诺将让依靠避税港和洗钱实现的避税行为更加难以隐藏。


Governments cannot deliver a sustainable future alone.	政府无法单枪匹马带来可持续未来。


The private sector also has an important role to play in energy, agriculture, and urban development, including transport and water systems that can drive innovation and economic opportunity.	私人部门在能源、农业和城市开发（包括可以推动创新和经济机会的交通和供水系统）等方面也起着重要作用。


While levels of private finance dwarf international public finance, directing these private funds to programs that reach the poorest and protect the environment requires the right policy incentives, such as a price on carbon, regulatory certainty, and the wise use of public money.	尽管私人融资水平比国际公共融资更高，但将这些私人资金引导到面向最贫困人口和保护环境的项目需要正确的政策激励，如碳排定价、监管确定性以及对公共资金的明智使用。


Trade boosts domestic production and generates revenue that can help pay for development.	贸易能刺激国内生产，产生有助于发展支出的收入。


There have been important gains in market access in the past 15 years: 80% of developing countries’ exports to developed countries are now tariff-free, while average tariffs are down overall.	在过去15年中，市场准入方面取得了重大进展：如今，80%的发展中国家对发达国家出口不需要交关税，总体平均关税水平也有所下降。


But non-tariff barriers can cost exporting countries more than tariffs do.	但非关税壁垒对出口国的影响可能比关税还要大。


What is needed is an international partnership that helps low-income countries integrate into the globalized marketplace while improving environmental and labor standards.	我们需要国际合作以助低收入国家融入全球化市场，同时改善环境和劳动标准。


The SDGs can create political momentum for these efforts, which could then be framed by the World Trade Organization in December 2015.	可持续发展目标为这方面的努力建立了政治动力，框架或许将在2015年12月的世界贸易组织中确定。


Making development sustainable will also require accelerated innovation and diffusion of technology between now and 2030.	实现发展的可持续还需要加速从现在到2030年间的技术创新和扩散。


A global partnership could spur investment in research and development and ease the flow of information among scientists, business people, and policymakers.	全球合作可以刺激研发投资，方便科学家、商人和决策者之间的信息流动。


Such new and creative partnerships can make progress on complex problems that governments, civil society, or the private sector cannot or will not solve alone.	这些新的创新合作关系可以给那些政府、公民社会或私人部门不能或不愿单独解决的复杂问题带来进展。


For example, the GAVI Alliance (formerly the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunization), a partnership comprising international organizations, philanthropies, governments, companies, and research organizations, has immunized 440 million children since 2000 and helped avert more than six million deaths.	比如，GAVI联盟（全球疫苗和免疫联盟）是一个由国际组织、慈善机构、政府、公司和研究组织组成的合作组织，自2000年以来，该联盟为4. 4亿儿童做了免疫，帮助减少了600多万起死亡。


We must improve and expand these types of partnerships to other challenges, such as infrastructure, agriculture, and energy.	我们必须改善和推进此类合作，以解决基础设施、农业和能源等其他挑战。


Between now and September 2015, when heads of state will gather for the UN General Assembly, we have a historic chance to set the world on a more sustainable path that will eradicate poverty and enhance prosperity for all.	从现在到2015年9月各国首脑齐聚联合国大会期间，我们拥有一个历史性机会为世界设计更加可持续的道路，从而消灭贫困、改善所有人的前景。


Ambitious goals provide a firm foundation for a brighter future.	宏大目标位更光明的未来打下坚实基础。


Over the coming months, however, leaders must work together to set the world on the right course to realize this vision.	但是，在未来几个月中，领导人必须齐心协力，让世界走向实现这一愿景的正确道路。


Sustainable Energy Now	现在发展可持续能源


WASHINGTON, DC – The world has never been closer to achieving the dream of a more sustainable and secure energy future.	华盛顿——世界从未如此接近实现可持续安全能源未来的梦想。


Renewable energy from the wind and sun is becoming competitive with fossil-fuel-based power generation, and oil prices are hitting lows not seen for years.	风能和太阳能等可再生能源较之化石燃料发电竞争力已显，石油价格则创下多年未见的新低。


These developments put us at the edge of a global energy transformation – as long as we get the next steps right.	这些变化将我们带到全球能源转型边缘——前提是我们下一步的举措相对合理。


Countries are already seizing the moment.	很多国家已经抓住这一有利时机。


With the oil-price drop that started in mid-2014, the first priority became clear: reform fossil-fuel subsidies before prices go back up.	随着2014年中油价开始下降，最重要的目标已经逐渐清晰：在油价重新上涨之前改革化石燃料补贴。


These subsidies have sapped government budgets, encouraged wasteful energy use, and increased pollution and carbon-dioxide emissions.	上述补贴消耗政府预算、鼓励能源使用浪费并加重污染和二氧化碳排放。


India has lifted controls on the price of diesel.	印度已经解除对柴油价格的管制。


Indonesia has moved away from gasoline subsidies.	印尼已逐步取消汽油补贴。


Others are following suit.	其他国家正纷纷采取类似的措施。


Money saved from ending subsidies can be better used to create safety nets that protect the poor when energy prices rise.	终止补贴所节约的资金可以更好地建立安全网络，保护穷人免受能源价格上涨的威胁。


But phasing out fossil-fuel subsidies, while critical, is only a first step in the right direction.	但淘汰化石燃料补贴虽然关键，却只是向正确方向迈出的第一步而已。


By taking advantage of new technologies, now widely available at affordable prices, countries can finally move toward long-term energy security and away from the inherent volatility of oil markets.	通过广泛应用价格低廉的新技术，各国终于可以摆脱石油市场不可避免的波动，朝实现长期能源安全的目标迈出坚实的一步。


For low-income countries, this means reducing the use of imported oil to produce electricity.	对低收入国家而言，这意味着降低利用进口石油发电的比例。 比方说肯尼亚电力生产的21%依赖重质燃油和柴油；


Kenya, for example, depends on heavy fuel oil and diesel for 21% of its electricity; the comparable figure in Senegal is a whopping 85%; and some island states use imported diesel for all of their electricity needs.	塞内加尔的可比数据更是高达85%； 某些岛国全部电力需求完全依靠进口柴油来满足。


For some countries, this is currently the only viable option, but over the long run this dependence can mean higher energy costs and vulnerability to price volatility and supply shocks.	对某些国家来讲目前这是唯一的选择，但长远来看这样的依赖可能意味着更高的能源成本和易受价格波动及供给冲击的影响。


With the right policies and international support, these countries can invest in the infrastructure needed to achieve a more diversified energy mix.	有了恰当的政策和国际支持，这些国家可以投资基础设施，以实现更加多元化的能源构造。


For many countries, the next step will be preparing electricity grids to integrate high levels of variable renewable energy like solar and wind.	对许多国家而言，下一步是将太阳能和风能等高水平可再生可变能源融入电网。


Thanks to the drop in the cost of solar panels and wind turbines, both are expanding at a faster pace than ever expected.	由于太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机的成本下降，太阳能和风能发电正在以出人意料的速度增长。


According to a new World Bank report, as of 2014, 144 countries had established national plans to expand renewable energy, and almost 100 had set specific targets and incentives.	世界银行最新报告显示截止2014年，144个国家已经制订了国家计划发展可再生能源，且有近100个国家已经出台了具体目标和激励举措。


In just seven years, from 2006 to 2013, the world’s installed capacity for wind power quadrupled, while use of photovoltaic systems grew almost 20-fold.	在从2006到2013年的短短七年间，全球安装完毕的风力发电容量翻了两番，而光伏系统的应用也出现近20倍的增长。


And all signs indicate that the pace of adoption is accelerating.	所有迹象表明可再生能源正迅速进入市场。


Old concerns about integrating wind and solar into traditional electricity systems are dropping away.	对将风能太阳能融入传统电力系统的原有担忧正在下降。


In Mexico, ambitious and frequently remote renewable-energy projects – hydropower, solar, and wind – are being connected to the grid.	在墨西哥，地处偏远但雄心勃勃的可再生能源��目——水电、太阳能和风能——正加速接入电网。


China, which has the world’s largest installed capacity for renewable energy, is studying the requirements and costs of upgrading the grid to bring in higher levels of distributed solar power.	可再生能源装机容量居世界之首的中国正在研究电网升级的规则和成本，以便将分散的太阳能发电接入电网。


As the World Bank report shows, with the right investments and policies, countries can now meet a large share of their electricity needs from variable renewable energy without compromising the reliability of the grid or the affordability of electricity.	世行报告显示有了正确的投资和政策，各国可以在不损害电网可靠性和电能经济性的前提下，以可变可再生能源的形式满足很大一部分电力需求。


These investments include energy storage, improved forecasting systems, and smart grids – all of which have benefited from breakthroughs in technology and falling prices.	上述投资包括储能、改善预报系统和智能电网——所有这些无不受益于技术突破和价格下降。


Perhaps most important, energy markets must be opened to new players.	最重要的或许是能源市场必须向新增参与者开放。


For poorer rural areas, this means creating a fertile environment for entrepreneurs and small power producers to develop mini-grids – generally powered by solar, small hydro, or solar-diesel hybrids – that can bring electricity to communities that would otherwise wait for years for grid connections.	在贫困的农村地区，这意味着为企业家和小型发电企业建设迷你电网——一般指太阳能、小型水力或太阳能及柴油混合发电——提供肥沃的土壤，原本需要等候多年才能入网的企业可以借此机会满足社会的电力需求。


In Tanzania, small power producers are now able to sell to customers without going through a lengthy licensing process.	在坦桑尼亚，小型发电企业现在可以不用经历漫长的许可程序而向客户销售电能。


In India, remote cellular towers, which would otherwise have to be powered by diesel generators, are serving as “anchor customers” for new mini-grids.	在印度，原本由柴油发电机供电的远程通讯塔正在成为新兴迷你电网的固定用户。


National power utilities must become nimble – willing to work with independent and individual power producers – and enable smart grids that can better manage supply and demand.	国家电力公司必须务实灵活——愿意与独立个体电力生产商合作——并启用智能电网来更好地管理供给和需求。


This is a challenge even for high-income countries such as Germany and the United States, where some utilities are seeing their business upended as consumers sell power back into the grid.	这对德美等高收入国家都是一种挑战，有些电厂目睹消费者向电网回售电力颠覆了它们的业务。


Here, developing countries, with less invested in traditional business models and facing an urgent need for power supplies, may be able to leapfrog the advanced countries, just as they have with mobile phones.	这里，发展中国家因为对传统业务模式投资较少和迫切需要扩大电力供应，或许可以像在手机领域一样超越先进国家。


The terms “sustainable energy” and “renewable energy” are often used interchangeably.	“可持续能源”和“可再生能源”这两个术语经常互换使用。


But perhaps a broader definition is needed.	但或许很有必要拓展定义的广度。


Truly sustainable energy is not only clean, with a minimal impact on pollution and CO2 emissions.	真正的可持续能源不仅清洁，对污染和二氧化碳排放影响甚微，而且对政府和民众而言都很经济实用；


It is also affordable for governments and citizens alike; it is reliable, drawing on sources upon which we can depend for decades to come; and it contributes to shared prosperity, by bringing services and benefits to all members of society.	利用今后几十年可依赖资源的真正可持续能源也非常可靠； 可持续能源还可以服务于社会所有成员，为共同繁荣贡献力量。


Thanks to lower oil prices, innovation, and economies of scale in the renewable-energy sector, that vision can now be turned into reality.	多亏油价下跌、创新和可再生能源领域的规模经济，我们现在可以实现这样的目标。


The Future Global Economy	未来的全球经济


WASHINGTON, DC – As the world enters yet another year in the shadow of continued financial and economic crisis, a broader view of the contours of the future global economy is required.	华盛顿——随着世界在持续金融和经济危机的阴影下进入新的一年，我们必须以更广阔的视野去看待全球经济的未来轮廓。


The longer-term trends are clear.	长期趋势非常明确。


Dynamic emerging markets from Asia to Latin America are rising in prominence.	从亚洲到拉美日益突显充满活力的新兴市场地位。


The United States and Japan remain important drivers of the global economy but face major debt and deficit challenges.	美日两国仍是推动全球经济发展的重要力量，但必须解决巨额债务和赤字问题。


Europe is going through a difficult but historic process of re-engineering and integration.	欧洲则正在经历调整及整合的困难历史时期。


The Middle East is transforming before our eyes.	中东正在经历转型。


Sub-Saharan Africa is breaking through to sustained development – creating a new frontier of growth after decades of stagnation.	撒哈拉以南非洲突破数十年经济停滞进入可持续发展的新领域。


These changes are shaping our future in a positive way.	上述变化正以积极的方式塑造我们的未来。


Yet there are still considerable roadblocks to overcome.	但是仍需克服相当大的障碍。


The global economic recovery remains too weak.	全球经济复苏的基础仍然过于薄弱。


With more than 200 million unemployed around the world, prospects for job creation are still too dim.	世界各国失业人数超过2亿以上，创造就业机会的前景依然黯淡。


And the gap between rich and poor, exacerbated by the crisis, is still too wide.	此次危机还导致贫富差距进一步拉大。


There is a tough road ahead if we are to turn optimism into reality.	我们要做很多努力才能把乐观变为现实。


I see three key milestones.	我认为主要分为三个阶段。


First, and most obviously, we need to put the crisis behind us, once and for all.	当务之急且显而易见的是，我们需要彻底摆脱危机。 同时我们也掌握方法：那就是推行宽松的货币政策；


And we know how to do that: accommodative monetary policy; fiscal adjustment in all advanced economies that includes concrete and realistic plans to reduce debt over the medium term, but does not undercut short-term growth; completing the banking-sector cleanup; and reforms to boost productivity and growth potential.	对所有发达经济体的财政调整（包括具体和现实的计划在内）其目的是在不影响短期增长的前提下减少中期债务； 完成对银行部门的清理；


All of this should be complemented by a rebalancing of global demand toward dynamic markets, including emerging economies.	采取改革措施以提高生产率和增长潜能。 所有这些必须辅之以重新平衡全球需求转向新兴经济体等充满活力的市场。


Perhaps the greatest obstacle will be the huge legacy of public debt, which now averages about 110% of GDP in the advanced economies – the highest level since World War II.	也许实现目标的最大障碍是之前遗留的巨额公共债务，相关债务当前达到二战以来的最高水平，在发达国家GDP中平均占比为110%。


This leaves governments highly exposed to subtle shifts in confidence. It also ties their hands, especially as they seek to build the physical and institutional infrastructure of the twenty-first century while respecting social promises.	这种情况导致政府需要面对微妙的信心变化，同时也捆住了他们的手脚，尤其妨碍他们在遵守社会承诺的前提下竭力建设二十一世纪实体及体制基础设施。


The needs of aging populations will add to these pressures.	老龄化人口的需求将加重这方面的压力。


History offers two clear lessons: reducing public debt is incredibly difficult without growth, and increasing growth is incredibly difficult with a huge burden of public debt.	历史告诉我们两条明确的教训：没有增长很难降低公共债务，但在巨额债务拖累下很难实现加速增长。


So we face a twofold imperative – securing growth while reducing debt.	于是我们面临着两项必须完成的任务——在保持增长的同时压缩债务。


The key now is not only to move from deliberation to action on the policies that we know are needed, but to move together and on all fronts.	现在的关键是不仅要从审议政策转向采取必要的行动，而且必须切实做到步调一致，全面推进。


The second milestone is a better global financial system.	第二阶段重点优化全球金融体系。


We need to move beyond the system that gave us the crisis – a financial sector in which some, as the ancient Greeks might say, toyed with hubris and unleashed nemesis.	我们需要将造成危机的体制甩在身后——正如古希腊人所说，金融界一小撮人的傲慢招来了报应。


Of course, there has been important progress, especially on the Basel III agenda to create more resilient capital and liquidity buffers.	当然，我们已经取得重要进展，特别是签订了以建立弹性更大的资本和流动性缓冲为目的的巴塞尔III协议。


But momentum is flagging, both on implementing the agreed reforms and on progress in areas like derivatives and shadow banking.	但落实约定改革和在衍生工具及影子银行等领域取得进展的动力正在削弱。


As a result, the system as a whole is not yet much safer than it was in September 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed.	结果是与2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭时相比，体制的总体安全性并没有明显增加。


It is still too complex; activities are still too concentrated in large institutions; and the specter of “too big to fail” remains.	体制仍然过于复杂，活动仍然过于集中在大型机构； 而且“尾大不掉”的阴影仍然没有消除。


Continuing excesses and repeated scandals show that the culture of finance has not really changed.	长期缺乏节制和反复出现的丑闻显示金融文化并没有真正改变过。


Many in the financial-services industry are concerned about the costs of new regulations.	金融服务业很多人关注新法规的成本。


A recent IMF study shows that better regulation would indeed nudge banks’ lending rates up, but by relatively little.	国际货币基金组织最近的一项研究表明完善法规确实可能引发银行贷款利率微涨，但涨幅相对较小。


We also found that increasing capital buffers to appropriate levels helps, rather than hurts, economic growth.	我们进一步发现将资本缓冲增加到恰当水平可以促进而非损害经济的增长。


Reforming financial-sector taxation would also help to reduce excessive risk-taking and leverage.	改革金融部门税收也将有助于抑制过度冒险和杠杆使用。


The bottom line is that the costs of reform are affordable. The costs of complacency are not.	以上证据至少表明我们可以承受改革带来的成本，却无法承受自满造成的代价。


The third milestone relates to the quality and inclusiveness of growth.	第三阶段涉及质量和增长包容性。


While growth is essential for the future global economy, it must be a different kind of growth – inclusive and not simply the fallout of unfettered globalization.	尽管增长对未来全球经济至关重要，但增长的方式却必须改变——未来的经济增长必须更具包容性，而不是单纯来源于不受约束的全球化进程。


The policy implications of such a reorientation are profound.	这样的调整定位政策必将产生深远的影响。


It requires a fiscal policy that focuses not only on efficiency, but also on equity – particularly on fairness in sharing the burden of adjustment, and on protecting the weak and vulnerable.	它要求财政政策要在关注效率的同时兼顾公平——特别是要公平分配调整和保护弱小的成本。


It means expanding access to credit and financial services everywhere.	这意味着要普遍扩大各地对信贷和金融服务的使用。


And it means more transparency and better governance.	这还意味着加强管理，增大透明度。


Achieving these milestones presupposes greater global cooperation.	实现上述转折的前提是强化全球合作。


A world that is bound closely together must be a world that works closely together if it is to prosper together.	要想实现共同繁荣，就必须让紧密联系的世界实现紧密合作。


There is simply no other choice.	根本不存在其他的选择。


We are multiple players, but we are engaged in a single game – a game that must be cooperative, not simply competitive.	我们是同样游戏之中不同的参与者，游戏的规则必须是合作而非竞争。


In such a world, multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund play a vital role in boosting economic cooperation.	在这样的世界里，国际货币基金组织等多边机构在促进经济合作中发挥了至关重要的作用。


The year 2013 offers the chance to put the economic crisis behind us and to shape the world for the better.	2013年我们有机会摆脱经济危机，塑造一个更美好的世界。


Policymakers must seize this chance.	决策者必须抓住机会。


The IMF will support them in building a fairer and more prosperous future.	国际货币基金组织将支持他们建设更公平、更繁荣的未来。


Sustainable Humanity	可持续人道


ADDIS ABABA – Sustainable development means achieving economic growth that is widely shared and that protects the earth’s vital resources.	亚的斯亚贝巴——可持续发展的意思是实现人人得益的经济增长，同时又保护地球的宝贵资源。


Our current global economy, however, is not sustainable, with more than one billion people left behind by economic progress and the earth’s environment suffering terrible damage from human activity.	但是，当前的全球经济是不可持续的，10亿以上的人口没有赶上经济进步进程，地球环境也因人类活动而受到了可怕的伤害。


Sustainable development requires mobilizing new technologies that are guided by shared social values.	可持续发展要求动员受共同价值指导的新技术。


United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has rightly declared sustainable development to be at the top of the global agenda.	联合国秘书长潘基文正确地指出，可持续发展是全球日程的重中之重。


We have entered a dangerous period in which a huge and growing population, combined with rapid economic growth, now threatens to have a catastrophic impact on the earth’s climate, biodiversity, and fresh-water supplies.	我们已经进入了一个危险的时期，人口数量庞大且在不断增长，经济增长十分迅速，因而对地球气候、生物多样性和清洁水供给造成了灾难性影响。


Scientists call this new period the Anthropocene – in which human beings have become the main causes of the earth’s physical and biological changes. 	科学家将这一新时期称为“人类纪”（Anthropocene），即人类称为地球物质和生物变化的主要原因的时期。


The Secretary-General’s Global Sustainability Panel has issued a new report that outlines a framework for sustainable development.	潘基文的全球可持续发展委员会（Global Sustainability Panel，GSP）发布了一份新报告，列出了一个可持续发展框架。


The GSP rightly notes that sustainable development has three pillars: ending extreme poverty; ensuring that prosperity is shared by all, including women, youth, and minorities; and protecting the natural environment.	GSP正确地指出，可持续发展有三大支柱：终结极端贫困、保证繁荣为所有地球人所共享（包括妇女、年轻人和少数民族），以及保护自然环境。


These can be termed the economic, social, and environmental pillars of sustainable development, or, more simply, the “triple bottom line” of sustainable development.	它们分别可以称为可持续发展的经济、社会和环境支柱，或统称为“三条基线”。


The GSP has called for world leaders to adopt a new set of Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs, that will help to shape global policies and actions after the 2015 target date for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).	GSP呼吁世界领导人采用新的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goal），简称SDG，从而在千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals，MDG）于2015年到期后制定新的全球政策。


Whereas the MDGs focus on reducing extreme poverty, the SDGs will focus on all three pillars of sustainable development: ending extreme poverty, sharing the benefits of economic development for all of society, and protecting the Earth.	MDG专注于削减极端贫困，而SDG将专注于可持续发展的三大支柱：终结极端贫困、让全社会分享到经济发展的好处，以及保护地球。


It is, of course, one thing to set SDGs and quite another to achieve them.	当然，设置SDG是一回事，实现它们又是另一回事。


The problem can be seen by looking at one key challenge: climate change.	其中的问题可以从一大关键挑战中一窥端倪：气候变化。


Today, there are seven billion people on the planet, and each one, on average, is responsible for the release each year of a bit more than four tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.	如今，地球人口已经突破了70亿，平均而言，每个人每年要向大气排放4吨二氧化碳。


This CO2 is emitted when we burn coal, oil, and gas to produce electricity, drive our cars, or heat our homes.	这些二氧化碳产生于我们燃烧煤、石油和汽油来生产电力、发动汽车或室内取暖的过程中。


All told, humans emit roughly 30 billion tons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere, enough to change the climate sharply within a few decades.	总的来说，人类每年要向大气层排放300亿吨二氧化碳，足以在短短几十年间让气候发生急剧变化。


By 2050, there will most likely be more than nine billion people.	到2050年，地球人口极有可能将突破90亿。


If these people are richer than people today (and therefore using more energy per person), total emissions worldwide could double or even triple.	如果那时的地球人比今天更富有（因而人均能源使用量也更多），那么世界总排放量将可能增长一倍甚至两倍。


This is the great dilemma: we need to emit less CO2, but we are on a global path to emit much more.	这就造成了一个两难困境：我们需要减少二氧化碳的排放，但脚下的路却通向更多的排放。


We should care about that scenario, because remaining on a path of rising global emissions is almost certain to cause havoc and suffering for billions of people as they are hit by a torrent of droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and more.	我们必须认真对待这一情景，因为沿着增加全球排放之路走下去几乎肯定造成一场大浩劫，数十亿人口将因干旱、热浪、飓风等灾难遭受苦难。


We have already experienced the onset of this misery in recent years, with a spate of devastating famines, floods, and other climate-related disasters.	近几年来，我们已经在经历这一浩劫的起始阶段，饥荒、洪水和其他与气候有关的灾难轮番不断地袭击着地球。


So, how can the world’s people – especially its poor people – benefit from more electricity and more access to modern transportation, but in a way that saves the planet rather than destroys it?	那么，世界人民——特别是贫困人口——如何从更多的电力和更现代的交通中获益，同时又实现对地球的拯救而不是破坏呢？


The truth is that we can’t – unless we improve dramatically the technologies that we use.	答案是我们无法做到这一点，除非我们能够极大地改良我们所使用的技术。


We need to use energy far more wisely while shifting from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources.	我们需要更加精明地使用能源，同时从化石燃料转向低碳能源。


Such decisive improvements are certainly possible and economically realistic.	在这方面的决定性改良是可实现的，而且具有经济上的现实性。


Consider the energy inefficiency of an automobile, for example.	比如，我们可以考虑一下汽车能效问题。


We currently move around 1,000 to 2,000 kilograms of machinery to transport only one or just a few people, each weighing perhaps 75 kilograms (165 lbs.).	目前，我��正在使用1 000到2 000公斤的机器运送一个或数个人，每个人的重量大约为75公斤。


And we do so using an internal combustion engine that utilizes only a small part of the energy released by burning the gasoline.	汽车所使用的内燃机只能利用汽油燃烧所释放的能量的一小部分。


Most of the energy is lost as waste heat.	大部分能量以废热的形式浪费掉了。


We could therefore achieve huge reductions in CO2 emissions by converting to small, lightweight, battery-powered vehicles running on highly efficient electric motors and charged by a low-carbon energy source such as solar power.	因此，我们可以使用又小又轻、以电池作为能源的汽车，采用高效的电动马达，使用太阳能等低碳能源。


Even better, by shifting to electric vehicles, we would be able to use cutting-edge information technology to make them smart – even smart enough to drive themselves using advanced data-processing and positioning systems.	更妙的是，使用电动汽车，我们可以用高精尖信息技术使它们智能化，甚至通过高级数据处理技术和定位系统实现自动驾驶。


The benefits of information and communications technologies can be found in every area of human activity: better farming using GPS and micro-dosing of fertilizers; precision manufacturing; buildings that know how to economize on energy use; and, of course, the transformative, distance-erasing power of the Internet.	信息和通信技术所带来的好处可以在人类活动的所有领域看到：GPS和滴灌技术所带来的农业进步、精密制造、能自动实现节约能源的建筑，更不用说消除距离隔阂的互联网了。


Mobile broadband is already connecting even the most distant villages in rural Africa and India, thereby cutting down significantly on the need for travel.	移动宽带已能将最偏远的非洲和印度农村互联起来，从而大大降低差旅需要。


Banking is now done by phone, and so, too, is a growing range of medical diagnostics.	如今，银行业务也可以通过电话实现，越来越多的医疗诊断也是如此。


Electronic books are beamed directly to handheld devices, without the need for bookshops, travel, and the pulp and paper of physical books.	电子书出现在各式各样的手持设备中，你不再需要跑到书店去，制作图书也不再需要用纸浆。


Education is increasingly online as well, and will soon enable students everywhere to receive first-rate instruction at almost a zero “marginal” cost for enrolling another student.	教育也越来越在线化了，很快，各地的学生就能以几乎为零的（增加学生人数的）“边际成本”获得一流的教学服务。


Yet getting from here to sustainable development will not just be a matter of technology.	但从现阶段迈向可持续发展光靠技术是不行的。


It will also be a matter of market incentives, government regulations, and public support for research and development.	市场激励、政府监管以及对研发的公共支持也是必不可少的。


But, even more fundamental than policies and governance will be the challenge of values.	但是，比政策和治理更基本的问题是价值挑战。


We must understand our shared fate, and embrace sustainable development as a common commitment to decency for all human beings, today and in the future.	我们必须理解我们的共同命运，以悲天悯人的胸怀将可持续发展作为共同承诺，让今天和明天变得更好。


Sustaining Women	让妇女可持续


NEW YORK – The United Nations “Rio+20” Earth Summit this month will be a staging ground to chart the course for inclusive economies, social equality, and environmental protection.	纽约— 本月举行的联合国“里约+20”地球峰会将提供一个舞台，供人们讨论包容性经济、社会平等和环境保护等问题。


For that reason, it must place sustainable development at the forefront of the global agenda.	基于此，必须将可持续发展置于全球日程最优先的位置。


It is already clear that achieving sustainable development is not possible without sustainable energy.	可以明确的是，没有可持续能源，就无法获得可持续发展。


Indeed, access to energy spurs development on many levels – not least in terms of women and their health, safety, and autonomy.	事实上，能够得到能源刺激了各个层面的发展，比如妇女及其健康、安全和自主。


Recognizing this, the UN has declared 2012 the Year of Sustainable Energy for All, and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has launched a global initiative to achieve three ambitious goals by 2030: universal access to modern energy services, a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency, and a doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.	认识到这一点，联合国宣布2012年为全人类可持续能源年（Year of Sustainable Energy for All），联合国秘书长潘基文宣布将发起一个全球计划，力争在2030年完成三大宏伟目标：人人可以获得现代能源服务、全球能源效率提高一倍，以及可持续能源占全球能源消费比例提高一倍。


These are global issues.	这些都是全球问题。


But, everywhere around the world, energy is a woman’s issue.	但是，放眼全球，能源是一个妇女问题。


It can mean the difference between safety and fear, freedom and servitude, and even life and death.	这可能决定了安全和恐惧、自由和奴役，甚至生和死。


In many places, especially in rural areas, women spend long hours each day finding fuel wherever they can in the absence of sustainable energy sources.	在许多地方，特别是农村地区，如果缺乏可持续的能源来源，妇女就得每天花很长时间寻找燃料。


Globally, 1.3 billion people still lack access to electricity, and 2.7 billion people, mostly women, rely on wood, charcoal, and dung for cooking.	从全球情况看，13亿人仍很难获得电力，27亿人（大部分是妇女）需依赖木头、木炭和粪来生火煮食。


Whether foraging for firewood, which may expose them and their daughters to the risk of rape, or spending their scarce resources on kerosene for smoky, inefficient lighting, women make difficult decisions every day about household energy resources and usage.	不管是外出寻觅柴火（可能导致妇女及其女儿遭遇强暴），还是将手中不多的财富用于购买燃烧不充分且烟量很大的煤油，妇女每天都要做出艰难的选择，决定家庭能源的来源和用途。


It is also women who suffer the disproportionate health impacts of unsustainable energy sources.	不可持续能源对健康造成的伤害也大部分被妇女承受了。


Exposure to smoke from hazardous methods of cooking, heating, and lighting kills nearly two million people each year, 85% of whom are women and children who die from associated cancer, respiratory infections, and lung disease.	妇女暴露在高风险烹饪、取暖和照明方式所产生的烟尘中，这导致了每年近200万人丧命，其中85%是妇女和儿童，死因为与此相关的癌症、呼吸道感染和肺病。


Millions more suffer from exposure-related diseases.	另有几百万人因此罹患与曝光相关（exposure-related）的疾病。


At the community level, a lack of energy at medical clinics impedes the ability of medical personnel to provide adequate treatment and care.	从社会层面看，医疗诊所缺乏能源束缚了医务人员提供充分医护服务的能力。


It is estimated that 200,000-400,000 healthcare facilities in developing countries lack access to reliable electricity.	据估计，发展中国家有20—40万医疗设备得不到充足的电力供应。


This means that vaccines and blood cannot be stored safely, diagnostic equipment is often useless, and operating rooms cannot function at night.	这意味着疫苗和血液无法安全储存、诊断设备沦为摆设、手术室无法在夜晚使用。


For pregnant women, this lack of reliable electricity poses a significant risk to their own lives and those of their babies.	对孕妇来说，缺少可靠电源会给她们自身和腹中胎儿带来重大风险。


Worldwide, 800 women die each day from complications of pregnancy and childbirth, and the vast majority of these deaths could be averted by providing quality health services, for which electricity is usually required.	从全球看，每天有800人死于与妊娠和分娩有关的情况，如果能获得高质量的医护服务——通常需要电力支持——其中的绝大部分可能不会死。


Today, the long hours of unpaid work that women perform each day searching for firewood and other energy sources rob them of time to engage in more productive activities.	如今，妇女每天都要花大量的时间寻找柴火和其他能源，这种无薪劳动导致了她们没有时间从事生产率更高的活动。


That, in turn, deprives poor families of much-needed income.	而这反过来又导致贫困家庭无法获得急需的收入。


It does not have to be this way.	事情本不需要如此。


In Kenya, improved wood-burning stoves have reduced fuel requirements by some 40%, which has not only lowered women’s burden of unpaid work and reduced deforestation, but has also freed up time that women can devote to education, training, and paid employment, which will reduce poverty.	在肯尼亚，改进型柴炉能够节约40%的燃料，这不但减轻了妇女无薪劳动的压力、减少了森林破坏，还让妇女得以将更多时间用于教育、培训和有薪工作，从而减轻了贫困。


Providing sustainable energy for all will create new opportunities for women elsewhere as well.	向所有人提供可持续能源也可以为其他地方的妇女创造新机会。


Solar energy can provide entire villages with lighting, pumped water, refrigeration, and the electrification of health centers, schools, and other public facilities.	太阳能可以为整个村庄提供照明、泵水、制冷和医疗、学校及其他公共设施电气化所需要的电力。


Moreover, renewable energy can provide a window to the outside world, via access to mobile phones, the Internet, television, and radio, and also power small, medium, and large enterprises.	此外，可再生能源可以带来移动电话、互联网、电视、和广播为人们提供展望外部世界的窗口，更能令小型、中型和大型企业如虎添翼。


And availability of outdoor lighting can prevent violence against women and girls.	室外照明还可以防止针对妇女和少女的暴力行为。


Achieving sustainable energy for all requires women’s full participation.	让所有人获得可持续能源需要妇女的全面参与。


Evidence from India and Nepal suggests that women’s involvement in decision-making is associated with better local environmental management.	印度和尼泊尔的经验表明，妇女参与决策能改善本地环境管理。


And, according to a global study, countries with higher female parliamentary representation are more prone to ratify international environmental treaties.	此外，根据一项全球研究的结果，议会代表中妇女比利更高的国家更容易批准国际环境条约。


As the Rio Declaration, adopted at the first Earth Summit in 1992, states: “Women have a vital role in environmental management and development.	1992年地球峰会通过的《里约宣言》（里约 Declaration）说：“妇女对环境管理和发展至关重要。


Their full participation is therefore essential to achieve sustainable development.”	因此，妇女的全面参与是获得可持续发展的关键。 ”


Twenty years later, with the stakes even higher, we can no longer afford inaction.	20年后，问题更加紧迫了，我们也再经不起拖延了。


That is why we are bringing the principle of gender equality to the forefront of discussions and partnerships to achieve sustainable energy for all by 2030.	这就是我们为什么要把性别平等视为关于2030年人人获得可持续能源这一目标的讨论和参与的最优先事项。


Sweden’s Shame	瑞典之耻


VIENNA – Last month, firecrackers were thrown at the only synagogue in the Swedish city of Malmö, breaking three windows.	发自维也纳——上个月，瑞典城市马尔默的唯一一座犹太教堂被人投掷了易燃物品，打碎了3块玻璃。


The day before, a bomb threat had been left at the building, warning of what was about to happen.	就在事件发生的前一天，有人在教堂留下了炸弹警告。


Two weeks previously, another attack was launched against the same synagogue.	而在两个月之前就已经发生了一起针对同一所教堂的袭击事件。


For months, local Jews have testified to an increasingly hostile atmosphere, with many saying they are frightened to go out on the streets wearing anything that might identify them as Jews.	数月以来，当地的犹太人都感觉到周边的环境越来越充满敌意，许多人声称自己不敢身穿任何标示其犹太身份的服饰上街。


Earlier this year, Daniel Schwammenthal, writing in The Wall Street Journal, explained why in the starkest possible terms: “Screaming ‘Sieg Heil’ and ‘Hitler, Hitler,’ a mostly Muslim mob threw bottles and stones at a small group of Jews peacefully demonstrating for Israel at this town’s central square last year. Worshippers on their way to synagogue and Jewish kids in schools are routinely accosted as ‘Dirty Jews.’”	而在年初，丹尼尔·施瓦门撒尔就在《华尔街日报》上用最直白的语言阐述了犹太人恐惧的原因——“去年，一伙高喊着‘Sieg Heil’(德文意为‘胜利’，法西斯分子见面时的用语)以及‘希特勒，希特勒’，主要由穆斯林组成的暴徒向在城市中央广场和平声援以色列的一小队犹太人投掷瓶子和石块，而那些到犹太教堂作礼拜的人，以及学校里的犹太孩子都经常被称之为‘臭犹太人’。


Malmö police say that, of the 115 hate crimes recorded in the city in 2009, 52 were aimed at Jews or Jewish institutions.	据马尔默市警方称，2009年在本市发生的115宗种族仇恨犯罪中有52宗是针对犹太人或犹太机构的。


Anti-Semitism is back, and what is taking place in Malmö is merely an extreme manifestation of what is happening across the whole of Sweden.	反犹太主义正在卷土重来，而马尔默事件仅仅是反映瑞典全国现状的一个极端例子而已。


Let us recall that it was Sweden’s top-selling newspaper, Aftonbladet, that last year published an anti-Semitic blood libel by alleging that Israeli soldiers routinely murdered Palestinian children and harvested their bodily organs for sale on the international black market.	回想起来，正是瑞典销量最大的报纸《Aftonbladet（晚间消息）》在去年登载了一篇极度血腥的诽谤犹太人的报道，声称以色列军人一直都在杀害巴勒斯坦儿童，并取下器官拿到黑市上贩卖。


The Swedish government responded with indifference, and worse: when the country’s ambassador to Israel put up a note on the embassy’s Web site distancing Sweden from such appalling calumnies, her enraged superiors in Stockholm ordered her to take it down.	而瑞典政府对此报道的反映却异常冷漠，甚至有推波助澜之势：当瑞典驻以色列大使在大使馆网站上刊登告示，试图将瑞典与这种耸人听闻的诽谤划清界限之时，她在斯德哥尔摩的上司却为此暴跳如雷，并命令她撤销告示。


It is not just the media and the government that is fanning the flames of this hatred.	为这股仇恨之火添薪加柴的不仅仅是政府和媒体。


In January 2009, church officials in the town of Luleå cancelled a planned torch-light procession for Holocaust Memorial Day, with a spokesman saying that they were “preoccupied” and “grief-stricken” by Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in Gaza.	在2009年1月，卢利亚城的教会事务官员就取消了一场即将在犹太人大屠杀纪念日举办的烛光游行，而官方发言人的理由则是他们正“深切关注”以色列在加沙发动的代号“铸铅”的军事行动，并“感到极度忧伤”。


Canceling Holocaust Memorial Day?	取消大屠杀纪念日？


Spreading blood libels, and acquiescing in them?	散播血腥的诽谤，并默许这些行为？


Allowing a state of affairs in which Jews are frightened to leave their homes?	容许犹太人不敢走出家门的情况持续存在？


This does not sound like the tolerant, fair, and just society for which Sweden would like to be known.	这可不像一个令瑞典闻名于世的包容，公平而且公正的社会。


How has such a state of affairs arisen, and what can be done to address it?	那么这种情况究竟是从何而来，我们又该采取何种方式去应对之？


The first problem is that Swedish mainstream hostility to the State of Israel has clearly begun to cross the line into outright anti-Semitism.	第一个问题，就是瑞典的主流民意中对以色列的敌视心态无疑已经开始向彻底反犹太主义转变。


Of course, attempts to draw a distinction between hatred of Jews and hatred of Israel were never particularly convincing.	当然，尝试在仇视犹太人和仇视以色列之间划清界限的举措从来就没发挥过什么作用。


Israel is a specifically Jewish project, and to join the campaign of de-legitimization against the Jewish state is to join a campaign of de-legitimization against much of world Jewry, the vast majority of which either lives in Israel or regards it as a central component of Jewish identity.	以色列是一个特殊的犹太项目，而加入一个试图将剥夺这个犹太国家合法性的运动就是加入了一个剥夺全世界大多数犹太人合法性的运动，因为这些人都居住在以色列，并将其视为犹太人身份定义的核心组成部分。


But one particular section of Sweden’s population has never engaged in the pretense that there is a distinction between hatred of Israel and hatred of Jews.	但却有一部分瑞典人从来没有意识到仇视以色列和仇视犹太人之间是存在着明显区别的。


Which brings us to the second major issue at play here: Sweden’s Muslim population.	而带给我们第二个主要问题的则是瑞典的穆斯林族群。


While all manifestations of intolerance against Muslims must be firmly resisted, it is also vital to recognize the danger that some Muslim immigrants have brought with them from their home cultures: extreme forms of bigotry against Jews and Israel.	当所有针对穆斯林的狭隘行为都必须得到坚决抵制之时，也很有必要意识到有些穆斯林移民也从自己家乡带来了一种文化，那就是反犹太和反以色列的极端偏执行为。


When mainstream politicians, newspapers, and churches rail against Israel, many Swedish Muslims inevitably see this is a green light for them to unleash their own hostility toward ordinary Jews.	当主流政治家，报纸和教会都对以色列大加斥责之时，许多瑞典穆斯林也无可避免地认为这是给他们开了绿灯，让他们可以像普通犹太人宣泄自己的敌意。


They feel that their anti-Semitism is acceptable.	与此同时，这些人会认为自己的反犹太行为是可以被大众所接受的。


A third layer of this problem is the increasingly symbiotic alliance between radical Islamist groups in Sweden and a left that has departed from the honorable social-democratic traditions for which the country is famous around the world.	而该问题的第三个层面，则是有越来越多的迹象证明：本国的极端伊斯兰组织正和一支左派势力联合起来，并且与瑞典引以为荣的社会民主传统背道而驰。


When the Israeli Davis Cup tennis team came to Malmö in 2009, it was forced to play against its hosts behind closed doors while a crowd of 6,000 far-leftists and Muslims rioted outside.	当以色列戴维斯杯网球赛于2009年在马尔默举行之时，赛事承办方甚至被迫闭门作赛，因为有近6000名极左翼分子和穆斯林正在场外闹事。


With anti-Israeli hate serving as the primary unifying factor, this alliance has grown into a new and dangerous force for intolerance within Swedish society.	当仇视以色列成为促使这些人联合起来的首要因素，这个联盟就成长成为一股崭新且危险的力量，在瑞典社会内部散播狭隘仇恨的种子。


Ultimately, change will not come unless and until Sweden’s leaders address these problems.	除非以瑞典的领导人能着手一一解决这些问题，否则情况最终将无法得到改观。


Officials and opinion shapers must understand that this perilous state of affairs will worsen if they fail to take their responsibilities more seriously, tone down their rhetoric, and adopt a balanced approach to Israel.	政府和民意领袖必须意识如果他们不认真履行自己的责任，管住自己的嘴，并公正看待以色列的话，这种危险的状况将进一步走向恶化。


Above all, Swedish politicians must speak out when minorities become the target of hate crimes.	总而言之，在少数群体成为仇视犯罪的对象之时，瑞典政治家必须站出来说句公道话。


Even a tolerant country such as Sweden must not tolerate those who preach intolerance.	因为即便是像瑞典这样的包容国家，也不能纵容那些散布狭隘言论的人。


Sweden in Crisis	危机中的瑞典


STOCKHOLM – After decades of adherence to more or less stable rules and predictable patterns, Swedish politics has entered uncharted territory in recent weeks.	斯托克霍姆—在经历了几十年或多或少稳定的规则和可预测的模式后，瑞典政治在最近几周进入了未知领域。


Many are shocked that the government collapsed and had to call a new election only two months after taking office.	许多人震惊于政府崩溃、不得不在执政仅仅两个月后就举行新选举。


After all, Sweden had been a rare beacon of success in Europe in the years since the 2008 global financial crisis.	毕竟，自2008年全球金融危机以来，瑞典一直是欧洲罕见的成功明灯。


So what happened?	那么，到底发生了什么？


The immediate cause of the government’s demise was Parliament’s rejection of the center-left coalition’s proposed budget, in favor of the budget presented by the center-right Alliance parties, which formed the previous government.	政府倒台的直接原因是议会拒绝了中左翼联盟的预算方案，而支持此前执政的中右翼联盟提出的预算。 没能让其首个预算得到批准的政府决不能像什么都没发生过那样继续执政了。


Having failed to pass its first budget – owing to the abrupt decision by the far-right Swedish Democrats (SD) to support the Alliance alternative – the government could not simply continue as if nothing had happened.	预算没能通过的原因是极右翼的瑞典民主党（Swedish Democrats）突然决定支持中右翼联盟的方案。


The background to this episode was the September election, which the four-party Alliance lost after eight years in power (during which I served as Foreign Minister).	这一事件的背景要追溯到9月的选举，当时，有四个政党组成的中右翼联盟在执政八年（我在此期间担任外交部长）后在选举中败北。


The Alliance government was widely considered to have been successful; but eight years is a long time in politics.	中又以联盟政府被广泛认为是成功的，但在政治界，八年是一个很长的时期了。


Fair enough.	正是如此。


But, though the Alliance certainly lost, the main opposition Swedish Social Democratic Party and its allies on the left did not win.	但是，尽管中右翼联盟输掉了选举，但主要反对党瑞典社会民党（Swedish Social Democratic Party）及其左翼盟友也没有获胜。


In fact, the three leftist parties in Parliament gained a slightly smaller share of the popular vote than they did in the 2010 election.	事实上，议会的三个极左翼政党获得的选民支持比2010年略少。


The big winner was the populist SD, which doubled its share of the vote, to more than 13%.	大赢家是民粹主义政党瑞典民主党，他的支持率增加了一倍，达到13%以上。


And, because no other party was prepared to cooperate with the SD, the only viable alternative was a minority government.	此外，由于没有其他党派准备与瑞典民主党合作，因此唯一可行的办法只有组成少数派政府。


To be sure, the Social Democrat-Green coalition, with the support of only 38% of MPs, was bound to be an uncertain exercise.	平心而论，社会民主党-绿党联盟只获得了38%的议会议员支持，注定是一次充满不确定性的执政。


But it could have worked, had the government not quickly veered sharply to the left, forging budget and other agreements with the ex-Communist Left party.	但他们也有成功的可能，如果政府没有迅速向左转、与前共产主义左翼政党达成预算和其他一致的话。


That strategy sealed the government’s fate, though the end came sooner and more dramatically than expected.	这一战略决定了政府的命运，尽管结局来得比预料中快了些，也戏剧性了些。


But Sweden’s current political muddle is also rooted in longer-term changes, which to some extent reflect broader European trends.	但瑞典当前的政治乱局也植根于长期变化，而这在某种程度上体现了更广泛的欧洲趋势。


One is the structural decline of the once-dominant Social Democrats.	其中之一是曾经拥有主宰地位的社会民主党的结构性衰落。


For decades, any election in which the party won less than 45% of the vote was viewed as a disaster.	几十年来，社会民主党只要在选举中无法获得45%以上的选票，就会被认为是一场灾难。


Now the Social Democrats’ popular support hovers at around 30%, and the last two elections yielded the worst results in a century.	如今，社会民主党的民众支持率在30%左右，前两次选举更是创造了一个世纪以来的最差结果。


The other trend is the rise of the populist SD.	另一个趋势是民粹主义政党瑞典民主党的崛起。


Until 2010, Sweden seemed immune to the rise of far-right parties like those in Denmark, Norway, and Finland.	2010年前，瑞典似乎不存在极右翼政党崛起的情况，与丹麦、挪威和芬兰等国家不同。


Since then, however, the SD has fundamentally changed the country’s political landscape.	但是，自此以后，瑞典民主党从根本上改变了瑞典的政治版图。


Anti-immigrant sentiment is part of the story, though Swedish public opinion has become much more favorable toward immigration since the early 1990s.	反移民情绪也是原因之一，尽管瑞典公共观点对移民的态度自20世纪90年代以来有了很大的改观。


For some, immigration has become a symbol of a society gone astray.	对一些人来说，移民已成为社会迷失的象征。


For others, the number of immigrants over the last few years has simply been too high.	也有人认为过去五年中的移民数量实在是太大了。


In fact, the numbers are high – not in comparison with a country like Turkey, but certainly relative to other European Union countries.	事实上，数字确实很高——不与土耳其等国家比较，但相对其他欧盟国家显然如此。


Sweden and Germany receive the largest inflows of immigrants by far – and Germany is nearly ten times the size of Sweden.	目前，瑞典和德国接收的移民数量是最多的——而德国的面积是瑞典的近十倍。


Our tradition of being open to refugees is not new.	我们有向移民开放的传统，这不是什么新鲜事。


People came from the Baltic countries in the 1940s, Hungary in 1956, Chile after the 1973 coup, and Iran after the 1979 revolution. For decades, Swedish industry was dependent on immigrant workers.	20世纪40年代的巴尔干移民、1956年的匈牙利移民，1973年军事政变后的智利移民，1979年革命有的伊朗移民……几十年来，瑞典工业一直依赖移民工人。


During the Bosnian War of the 1990s, Sweden opened its doors to some 100,000 people – a challenge at any time, much less during a period of profound economic crisis.	20世纪90年代波斯尼亚战争期间，瑞典向100,000人开放国门——在任何时候这都是一项挑战，更不用说瑞典也在经历影响深远的经济危机了。


But it still turned out well: The Bosnian immigrants have fared roughly as well as the Swedes who received them, and they have enriched our society.	但最后的结局仍是喜剧：波斯尼亚移民的境况与接受他们的瑞典人几乎一样好，并且他们也丰富了我们的社会。


In the new century, refugees have come increasingly from the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.	进入新世纪，越来越多的难民来自中东和非洲之角。


One percent of Sweden’s population today is from Iran, and almost 2% are from Iraq.	如今，百分之一的瑞典人口来自伊朗，近2%来自伊拉克。


Indeed, after the Iraq war, the small town of Södertälje took in more Iraqi refugees than the United States did.	事实上，伊拉克战争后，小城南泰利耶（Södertälje）接收的伊拉克难民数量比整个美国还要多。


Given the numbers, immigration in Sweden has worked much better than expected.	考虑到这些数字，瑞典移民的表现远比期望的更好。


But there are problems.	但也有问题。


The Swedish labor market’s sometimes rather strict systems and stable structures have impeded integration relative to many other countries.	瑞典劳动力市场有时候制度相当严格，结构相当稳定，相对于其他许多国家来说，这阻碍了融合过程。


And now the number of immigrants is increasing again, reflecting chronic turmoil in the Middle East and elsewhere, as well as Europe’s increasingly turbulent and dangerous neighborhood, largely owing to Russian revisionism and military expansion.	如今，移民数量再次上升，原因在于中东和其他地区长期动乱，而欧洲邻国也变得日益动荡和危险（主要是因为俄罗斯的修正主义和军事扩张）。


Sweden, already a humanitarian superpower in terms of the aid it provides to conflict regions, certainly will not close its doors.	从向冲突地区提供援助的角度讲，瑞典是一个人道主义超级大国，它绝不会关闭自己的大门。


But other European countries will have to bear more of the burden, and the authorities will have to do more to facilitate integration.	但其他欧洲国家也必须承担更多的负担，当局也必须加大促进融合的力度。


In particular, the pace of job creation achieved in the last few years must be maintained.	特别是，过去几年中创造就业岗位的速度必须保持。


For all of its economic success during the past two decades, not least since the 2008 crisis, industry is hollowing out, and structural issues are beginning to be felt.	过去二十年——包括2008年危机以来——瑞典经济相当成功，但其工业出现了空心化，结构性问题开始显现。


Our celebrated welfare state will come under strain from an aging population.	我们所自豪的福利国家将受到人口老化的掣肘。


Indeed, in this respect, immigration is more a part of the solution than a part of the problem.	事实上，从这个角度讲，移民是解决办法而不是问题的一部分。


There is no guarantee that the election in March will resolve Sweden’s political crisis, particularly if the SD performs well again.	没人能保证3月的大选能解决瑞典的政治危机，特别是如果瑞典民主党再次表现出色的话。


A German-style grand coalition has never been tested in Sweden; and Austria’s experience suggests that it could play into the extremists’ hands.	德国式的大联盟从未在瑞典接受过考验； 而奥地利的经验表明这可能有利于极端分子。


But a more cooperative atmosphere might well be needed.	但更合作的氛围或许非常必要。


In that case, the key question will be whether the Social Democrats can ditch their allies further to the left.	果真如此的话，关键问题将是瑞典民主党是否会与其左倾的盟友断绝关系。


Swine Flu for Grownups	成人猪流感


PRINCETON – No one knows how the swine flu (H1N1) pandemic will evolve.	普林斯顿——没有人知道猪流感（H1N1）传染病将如何发展。


Will it keep spreading, or will it fizzle?	它是会继续传播，还是会自行消失？


Will it retreat during the northern hemisphere’s summer and return in the fall?	它会不会在北半球的炎炎夏日暂时退避三舍，然后又在入秋之后卷土重来？


Will it stay mild or turn more severe?	猪流感病毒危害是会变得更加严重，还是会继续不温不火？


Flu experts just don’t know.	流感专家们对这些几乎一无所知。


What is certain is that health officials risk mishandling how they explain this new and potentially alarming threat to the public.	可以肯定，公共卫生官员可能会在向公众解释这种具备潜在威胁的新型疾病时出现错误。


Although they know a lot about virology and public health, they often know next to nothing about how to talk (and listen!) to people about risks.	尽管他们具有丰富的病毒学和公共健康知识，但他们对怎样面对公众告知风险（和怎样倾听公众意见）却几乎一无所知。


So here’s a primer on the swine flu pandemic risk communication, framed in terms of what health officials shouldn’t do when they’re telling you about this new disease.	因此我编写了这本猪流感风险交流入门，列举了公共卫生官员在向公众讲解这种新型疾病时 不该 怎么做。


1. Don’t feign confidence. Nobody likes uncertainty; we all wish the experts knew exactly what will happen.	不要假装有信心. 没有人喜欢不确定性，我们都希望专家完全了解要发生的事情。


But we cope better with candidly acknowledged uncertainty than with false confidence.	但坦率地承认心里没底比假装信心满满更能让我们放心。


When health officials tell us confidently that X is going to happen, and then Y happens instead, we lose trust in their leadership.	如果卫生专家肯定地告诉我们会发生X，结果却出现了Y，我们就会对他们的领导能力失去信心。


Smart officials are planning for various swine flu pandemic scenarios, and expecting surprises that will force them to change their plans.	聪明的官员会针对猪流感的不同情况制定相应的计划，并且知道可能会出现意外，迫使计划发生改变。


They should tell us so.	他们应该把实话告诉我们。


2. Don’t over-reassure. So far, this pandemic is mild.	不要过度保证. 到目前为止，猪流感传染病的危害还不算太大。


But even a mild influenza virus kills a lot of people, especially those with other medical problems.	但即便最温和的流感病毒也能夺去很多人的生命，特别是对那些患有其他疾病的人。


And experts worry that the novel H1N1 virus could mutate into a more severe strain.	专家们对新的H1N1充满了忧虑，担心病毒会变异为威胁更大的品种。


Yet officials endlessly insist that there is, as a Scottish health official put it, “absolutely no need for the public to be concerned.”	但就像一位苏格兰官员所说的那样，官员们没完没了地强调公众“绝”无必要担心。


This is false and it could backfire.	这种说法根本站不住脚，甚至可能产生相反的后果。


Even before a situation deteriorates (if it does), people sense when they are being “calmed” rather than informed.	即使在情况恶化之前（如果情况确实恶化），人们也能察觉出这是“虚假的安慰”，而不是实言相告。


Not trusting that officials will be candid about alarming information, we rely more on rumors.	如果不相信官方会将惊人的消息坦率告知，我们就会更多地依赖谣言。


Not trusting official over-reassurances, we become even more alarmed.	如果不相信官方的过度保证，我们就会变得更加警惕。


3. Don’t worry about panic. Panic is rare in emergencies.	不要担心恐慌. 紧急情况下实际很少发生恐慌。


Although people may feel panicky, they almost always behave well.	尽管人们可能会感觉慌乱，但几乎总能控制自己的行动。


But “panic panic” – leaders’ fear that they will be unable to stop their people from panicking – is both common and harmful.	但领导人害怕自己无法阻止民众陷入慌乱的“慌乱恐惧症”却既常见又有害。


In the grip of “panic panic,” officials issue over-reassuring statements, suppress or delay alarming news, and speak contemptuously about how the public is “irrational,” “hysterical,” or “panicking.”	在“慌乱恐惧症”的驱使下，官员们发表过度保证声明，压制或推迟惊人消息的公布，并轻蔑地谈论公众如何“丧失理性”、“歇斯底里”或“慌作一团”。


Such disdainful communication further reduces trust.	如此轻蔑的说法进一步减少了信任。


4. Don’t obsess over accusations of fear-mongering. Nothing officials say is likely to cause panic, but they may be accused of causing panic no matter what they say.	不要理睬制造恐慌的指责. 官方的任何说法都不大可能真的造成恐慌，但无论他们说什么都有可能招来制造恐慌的指责。


Even when officials over-reassure, they’re often accused of fear-mongering by critics who can’t bear any signs of public concern.	甚至连官方做出过度保证的时候，那些接受不了任何公众担忧迹象的批评者也时常会指责他们制造恐慌。


That particular criticism is inevitable, and officials should shrug it off.	如果那样的批评声避免不了，官方就应该一笑置之。


Far more officials have lost their jobs for under-warning the public about risks that turned out to be serious than for over-warning about risks that didn’t.	太多的官员因为对公众的风险警告不足而丢掉乌纱帽，却很少有人因为过度警告而承担什么后果。


5. Don’t fight the adjustment reaction. While panic is rare, it is natural for people to need some time to adjust to a new risk – and this swine flu pandemic is new to us all.	不要抗拒适应性反应. 尽管真正的恐慌非常罕见，但人们需要时间来适应新的风险却再自然不过——而猪流感对我们所有人都属于新鲜事务。


We cannot skip what risk communicators call the “adjustment reaction” phase, during which we may become temporarily overanxious and hypervigilant, and may even take precautions that are technically unnecessary or premature.	我们无法逃避风险沟通专家所说的“适应性反应”阶段，在上述时期内我们可能暂时变得过度焦虑和敏感，甚至可能采取技术上没有必要或不成熟的预防手段。


Adjustment reactions are brief, but useful – a cognitive, logistical, and emotional rehearsal for possible hard times ahead.	适应性反应虽然短暂，但却非常有用——它是对可能发生的困难在认识、逻辑和情感方面的一次预演。


Health officials should guide people through their adjustment reactions, not demand that they skip that step.	卫生官员应引导人们度过适应性反应期，而不是强行要求他们越过这个阶段。


6. Don’t oversell what the government is doing. If I could ban one phrase from official statements, my first choice would be “Everything is under control.”	不要过度推销政府作为. 如果让我禁止官方声明中的某个用词，我会首选“一切尽在控制”。


(“There’s no need to panic” would be a close second.)	（“没有必要恐慌”紧随其后排在第二位。


Experts agree that pandemics can be slowed, but not “contained.” Officials who promise – or imply – that they can keep this pandemic from their borders, or stop it once it has arrived, are setting themselves up for public outrage later.	）专家认同可以控制疾病的传播速度，但不同意能“彻底遏制”。 承诺或暗示能把传染病挡在国门之外或一旦传入将被立即消灭的官员今后将面对公众的怒火。


7. Don’t oversell what the public can do. It is good risk communication to offer people things to do.	不要过度推销公众作为. 让民众参与是不错的风险沟通。


Action gives us a sense of control, and helps us bear our fear.	行动让我们有控制感，帮助我们消除恐惧。


And if H1N1 becomes more severe, people (and communities) who have prepared for that possibility will probably fare better than those who have not.	如果H1N1变得更严重，可能做过准备的比没有准备的人处理能力更强。


But hygiene recommendations like hand-washing and cough-covering help only a little.	但洗手和咳嗽时用手掩住口鼻这样的卫生建议只能小有帮助。


Flu spreads more slowly if we all do our share, but it still spreads.	如果我们各尽其力流感会传播得慢一点，但这并不妨碍它继续传播。


“It’s not much, but it’s all we’ve got” is just as effective a message as “It will prevent the flu” in getting people to adopt these measures – and truth is far more sustainable than exaggeration.	“虽然效果未必很好，但舍此之外别无他法”在让人们采取行动时与“这样做可以防止流感”的效果一样好——而且真相永远比夸张更为持久。


8. Don’t ask the impossible. Recommending measures that the public cannot implement creates a sense of futility, not a sense of control.	不要乱提要求. 公众无法执行的建议措施不但不能增强信心，而且还会让人感到无助。


Officials shouldn’t urge people to wash their hands where clean water isn’t available.	在缺乏清洁用水的地方，官员们不宜敦促民众洗手。


They shouldn’t urge urban residents with underlying health conditions to “avoid crowds” without acknowledging empathically that it’s impossible to avoid crowds entirely for the duration of the pandemic.	他们应该在强调不可能在疾病流行期完全避开人群的情况下，建议有潜在健康问题的城市居民“避开拥挤场所”。


9. Don’t neglect the teachable moment. In the developing world, swine flu (so far) is much less serious than many endemic health threats, and the main risk-communication goal should be to help people get through their adjustment reaction, take precautions that are feasible, and refocus on other priorities.	不要忽略教育时机.   在发展中国家，猪流感（到目前为止）还远不像其他传染性健康威胁那样严重，因此主要的风险教育目标应该是协助民众度过适应性反应期，采取切实可行的预防措施，而后把注意力重新集中到其他重点问题上。


But in the developed world, swine flu has two long-lasting lessons to teach: (1) Flu is a bigger deal than many people imagine.	但是在发达国家，人们却应从猪流感的爆发中吸取两个长期教训：（1）流感比很多人想象的还要严重。


(2) Eventually, a severe pandemic will strike, whether it’s H1N1 or not, and we should do what we can, now, to prepare.	（2）最终，某种严重传染病将会流行，无论是不是H1N1，我们都应该从现在开始就尽力做好准备。


Health officials in North America mostly missed the teachable moment.	北美卫生官员基本错过了这次难得的教育机会。


Instead of these lessons, many people “learned” (or mislearned) that pandemics are paper tigers, and that health officials are fear-mongers.	除这两个教训外，很多人“知道”（或者错误地认为）传染病不过是纸老虎，而卫生官员不过是恐慌制造者。


Let us hope that officials elsewhere will do better.	我们真心期待其他地方的官员能做得更好。


Sympathy for Greenspan	对格林斯潘致以同情


BERKELEY – In the circles in which I travel, there is near-universal consensus that America’s monetary authorities made three serious mistakes that contributed to and exacerbated the financial crisis.	伯克利——在我往来联系的圈子里，存在着一种近乎普遍的共识：美国货币当局犯下了三个促成并加剧本次金融危机的严重错误。


This consensus is almost always qualified by declarations that the United States has been well served by its Federal Reserve chairmen since at least Paul Volcker’s tenure, and that those of us who have not sat in that seat know that we would have made worse mistakes.	人们在谈及这一共识时几乎总不忘附上说上一句：至少从保罗·沃尔克时期开始，美联储的主席们就已经干的不错了。 另外，我们作为从未担此重任的旁观者应该明白，如果换作我们，错误将会更加严重。


Nevertheless, the consensus is that US policymakers erred when:	但无论如何限定，人们还是共同认为美国决策者们在下述三个时期中犯下了错误：


·    the decision was made to eschew principles-based regulation and allow the shadow banking sector to grow with respect to its leverage and its compensation schemes, in the belief that the government’s guarantee of the commercial banking system was enough to keep us out of trouble;	·    当决定在影子银行部门的杠杆与补偿计划问题上回避了基于原则的管制，并允许其成长壮大，那时他们相信政府为商业银行体系提供的担保已足以令我们高枕无优；


·    the Fed and the Treasury decided, once we were in trouble, to nationalize AIG and pay its bills rather than to support its counterparties, which allowed financiers to pretend that their strategies were fundamentally sound;	·     当我们遭遇麻烦后，美联储与财政部决定对美国国际集团（AIG）进行国有化并偿付其债务，而不是选择向其同行提供援助之手，这令当时的金融家们相信他们在战略上还是没什么问题的；


·    the Fed and the Treasury decided to let Lehman Brothers go into uncontrolled bankruptcy in order to try to teach financiers that having an ill-capitalized counterparty was not without risk, and that people should not expect the government to come to their rescue automatically.	·    当美联储与财政部决定听任雷曼兄弟公司破产，此举是为了试图让金融家们得到教训——资本状况糟糕的银行是不是没有风险的，人们也不应当指望政府将自动地向他们伸出援手。


There is, however, a lively debate about whether there was a fourth big mistake: Alan Greenspan’s decision in 2001-2004 to push and keep nominal interest rates on US Treasury securities very low in order to try to keep the economy near full employment.	然而还存在另一场活跃的争论，也就是是否存在第四个重大错误：2001年至2004年期间，艾伦·格林斯潘决定下调并维持美国国债的名义利率，使其处在很低的水平，以此试图保持经济体的近乎充分就业状态。


In other words, should Greenspan have kept interest rates higher and triggered a recession in order to avert the growth of a housing bubble?	换言之，格林斯潘是否应该将利率维持在一个更高的水平上，给过热的经济降降温，以避免房地产市场泡沫的增长？


If we push interest rates up, Greenspan thought, millions of Americans would become unemployed, to no one’s benefit.	格林斯潘认为，一旦利率上调，数以百万计的美国人将丢掉饭碗，这对大家都无益处；


If interest rates were allowed to fall, these extra workers would be employed building houses and making things to sell to all the people whose incomes come from the construction sector.	而如果利率被允许下调，就会增加房地产行业的就业机会，建好的房屋又可以销售给那些收入来自于建筑领域的人。


Full employment is better than high unemployment if it can be accomplished without inflation, Greenspan thought.	格林斯潘认为，如果没有通货膨胀，充分就业就比高失业状况好。


If a bubble develops, and if the bubble does not deflate but collapses, threatening to cause a depression, the Fed would have the policy tools to short-circuit that chain.	若是泡沫发展，并且若其不是缩小，而是崩溃，产生导致萧条的风险，美联储也将拥有阻断这一链条的政策工具。


In hindsight, Greenspan was wrong.	从事后看，格林斯潘错了。


But the question is: was the bet that Greenspan made a favorable one?	但问题是：格林斯潘当时是否做出了一个有利的选择？


Whenever in the future the US finds itself in a situation like 2003, should it try to keep the economy near full employment even at some risk of a developing bubble?	在未来的任何时期， 当美国发现其又一次置身于2003年那样的境遇时，它是否应该试图保持经济的接近充分就业状态，即便这样做会冒一定的泡沫增长的风险？


I am genuinely unsure as to which side I come down on in this debate.	我真的不确定在这场争论中该站在哪一边。


Central bankers have long recognized that it is imprudent to lower interest rates in pursuit of full employment if the consequence is an inflationary spiral.	央行的银行家们早就承认，如果追求充分就业的后果是出现通胀螺旋的话，降低利率之举便有失慎重。


Some days I think that, in the future, central bankers must also recognize that it is imprudent to lower interest rates in pursuit of full employment when doing so risks causing an asset price bubble.	我觉得在未来某一天，他们必定还会同意另一句话：如果追求充分就业会出现资产价格泡沫风险的话，降低利率同样有失慎重。


Other days, however, I think that, even with the extra information we have learned about the structure of the economy, Greenspan’s decisions in 2001-2004 were prudent and committed us to a favorable and acceptable bet.	然而，我觉得在其��时候，即便当我们已经对经济结构掌握了额外的信息，格林斯潘在2001年至2004年期间做出的决策仍然是慎重的，并且将我们导向了一个有利而合意的方向。


What I do know is that the way the issue is usually posed is wrong.	我知道的只是，这个问题往往以一种错误的方式被提出。


People claim that Greenspan’s Fed “aggressively pushed interest rates below a natural level.”	人们宣称格林斯潘时期的美联储“激进地将利率推至自然水平之下。


But what is the natural level?	”但什么是自然水平？


In the 1920’s, Swedish economist Knut Wicksell defined it as the interest rate at which, economy-wide, desired investment equals desired savings, implying no upward pressure on consumer prices, resource prices, or wages as aggregate demand outruns supply, and no downward pressure on these prices as supply exceeds demand.	在上世纪二十年代，瑞典经济学家克努特·维克塞尔将之界定为：利率处于这一水平时，在整个经济体范围内，意愿投资与意愿储蓄持平，这意味着当总需求超过总供给时产生的消费者价格、资源价格或工资水平的上行压力不会出现； 同样，也不存在当供给超过需求时产生的各项价格的下行压力。


On Wicksell’s definition – the best, and, in fact, the only definition I know of – the market interest rate was, if anything, above the natural interest rate in the early 2000’s: the threat was deflation, not accelerating inflation.	依据维克塞尔的定义，（这个定义是最好的，实际上也是我唯一所知的。 ）在本世纪早期，市场利率只能算是高于自然利率水平：当时的威胁是通货紧缩，而不是不断加速的通货膨胀。


The natural interest rate was low because, as the Fed’s current chairman Ben Bernanke explained at the time, the world had a global savings glut (or, rather, a global investment deficiency).	自然利率之所以低，是因为正如美联储现任主席本·贝南克当年解释的那样，世界正面对全球性储蓄过剩（或者说全球性投资匮乏。 ）


You can argue that Greenspan’s policies in the early 2000’s were wrong. But you cannot argue that he aggressively pushed the interest rate below its natural level.	你可以提出格林斯潘在本世纪早期的政策是错误的，但你不能说他激进地将利率推到了自然水平之下。