And we must build partnerships to operationalize programs that will enable Africa to become the world’s next main engine of economic growth.	我们必须构建合作伙伴关系执行能让非洲成为世界下一个经济增长主要引擎的计划。


Such programs must recognize and tackle the acute challenges the continent faces.	这些计划必须承认和解决非洲所面临的尖锐挑战。


The economic growth experienced in recent decades has not been structurally driven, sustainable, or fully inclusive.	近几十年来的经济增长并非结构性驱动，不可持续，也不完全包容。


Indeed, growth rates vary widely across the continent, and not all Africans are benefiting.	事实上，非洲国家的增长率彼此大相径庭，也并不是所有国家都在受益。


Though the middle class in Africa has expanded markedly in recent years, generating a consumer boom and boosting domestic investment, many people still struggle to make a living.	尽管非洲中产阶级在近几年中迅速扩大，形成了一波消费繁荣，也提振了国内投资，但许多人仍在艰难度日。


Unemployment rates are high, especially for young people and women – a reality that drives many Africans to head north.	失业率高企，特别是年轻人和妇女——这个现实让许多非洲人向北方迁移。


To keep them home, Africa’s economies must move beyond producing raw materials to build dynamic and competitive manufacturing sectors with higher value added.	要想留住这些人，非洲经济体就不能只是生产原材料，也要构建充满活力和竞争力的增加值更高的制造业。


Here, Africa must draw on the opportunities presented by participation in global and regional value chains.	在这方面，非洲必须抓住参与全球和地区价值链的机会。


New and innovative industrial-development strategies, as well as carefully tailored measures to attract foreign direct investment, must be introduced.	必须引入新的创新性工业发展战略，以及精心设计的吸引外国直接投资的措施。


Of course, to develop such strategies and participate effectively in industrial value chains, Africans need knowledge.	当然，制定这些战略和有效参与工业价值链需要知识。


Investment in education and skills training is imperative to facilitate successful and lasting industrialization.	教育和技能培训投资是成功而持续的工业化的关进。


By understanding and drawing on proven innovations from around the world, Africa could leapfrog more developed countries technologically, building the capacity to produce more sophisticated, higher-value goods.	通过理解并从世界各地引进有效的创新，非洲能够在技术上赶超更加发达的国家，构建生产更先进、价值更高的商品的能力。


Knowledge of other countries’ experiences will also help Africa to avoid the pitfalls of unbridled industrialization – particularly environmental damage.	了解其他国家的经验也有助于非洲避免自由放任的工业化的弊端——特别是环境破坏。


Africa must ensure that its industrial-development strategy includes effective environmental safeguards.	非洲必须确保其工业发展战略中包括有效的环境保护措施。


Africa is well placed to industrialize.	非洲的处境十分有利于工业化。


Beyond its massive natural-resource endowments, the continent has a favorable demographic profile (its rapidly growing population means that it will soon have the world’s largest workforce) and high urbanization rates.	除了富饶的自然资源禀赋，非洲还拥有有利的人口结构（迅速增长的人口意味着它很快就能拥有世界上最庞大的劳动力大军）和很高的城市化率。


It also benefits from a highly educated diaspora.	非洲也从受过良好的教育的侨民中获益。


But industrialization is never automatic.	但工业化不会从天上掉下来。


Governments must step up to address market failures, while planning, implementing, and enforcing industrial policies that address the shortcomings of previous ineffective versions.	政府必须出手解决市场失灵，同时规划、实施和执行解决此前低效方案的短板的产业政策。


They must then institutionalize these new policies in national and regional development strategies.	它们还必须将这些国家和地区发展战略制度化。


To succeed, governments will need adequate capacity, competence, and legitimacy to mobilize and interact with all stakeholders, thereby creating an attractive investment climate.	要想成功，政府必须有足够的能量、能力和合法性动员相关利益方并与之互动，从而建立有吸引力的投资气候。


The necessary reforms will open the way for public-private partnerships, which can provide investment for infrastructure development and maintenance.	实施必要的改革能打开公私合作之门，而公私合作能提供基础设施开发和维护投资。


They will also facilitate cooperation with international organizations and development finance institutions, which can provide additional funds, while helping countries to upgrade their productive capacity.	政府还要为与国际组织和发展融资机构的合作提供便利，后两者可以提供更多的资金，并帮助非洲国家升级产能。


A recent report, prepared for the Hangzhou G20 Summit, features a number of recommendations for Africa.	G20杭州峰会的报告为非洲列出了许多建议。


It suggests support for agriculture and agribusiness development and linking them with other sectors, as well as measures to boost resilience to price shocks.	报告提出要为农业和农商企业发展提供支持，让它们与其他部门形成连接，并采取措施加强对价格冲击的恢复力。


Furthermore, the report emphasizes the need to deepen, broaden, and update the local knowledge base, invest in energy- and material-resource efficiency, and promote green technologies and industries.	此外，报告强调需要深化、广化和更新地方知识储备，投资于提高能源和原材料效率，以及促进绿色技术和产业。


Other recommendations relate to trade and regional integration, leveraging domestic and external finance, and promoting what it calls the “New Industrial Revolution.”	其他建议包括贸易和地区一体化、利用本地和外部资金、促进所谓的“新工业革命”等。


My numerous meetings with African leaders and visits to dozens of countries across the continent have convinced me that Africa is committed to industrialization.	我与非洲领导人进行过数不清的会晤，也访问过数十个非洲国家，这些经历使我相信，非洲有工业化的决心。


In fact, the process is already underway in many countries, including Ethiopia, Ghana, Rwanda, and Senegal.	事实上，工业化在许多国家已经开始了，包括埃塞俄比亚、加纳、卢旺达、塞内加尔等。


By offering our commitment and support, we can enable these countries to realize inclusive and sustainable development for the benefit of everyone.	通过提供我们的承诺和支持，我们能让这些国家实现包容和可持续的发展，让所有人都从中获益。


Banking on African Infrastructure	寄希望于非洲的基础设施建设


JOHANNESBURG – As the US Federal Reserve embarks on the “great unwinding” of the stimulus program it began nearly a decade ago, emerging economies are growing anxious that a stronger dollar will adversely affect their ability to service dollar-denominated debt.	约翰内斯堡——随着美联储开始“大逆转”近十年前开始的刺激计划，新兴经济体越来越担心美元走强会对其以美元计价债务的偿付能力造成负面影响。


This is a particular concern for Africa, where, since the Seychelles issued its debut Eurobond in 2006, the total value of outstanding Eurobonds has grown to nearly $35 billion.	对非洲而言这种担忧尤其严重，自塞舌尔2006年发行首支欧元债以来，尚未偿还的欧元债总值已经增长到近350亿美元。


But if the Fed’s ongoing withdrawal of stimulus has frayed African nerves, it has also spurred recognition that there are smarter ways to finance development than borrowing in dollars.	但如果说美联储持续退出刺激计划已经挑动了非洲国家的神经，同时也令人们意识到有比借美元债更加明智的发展融资方法。


Of the available options, one specific asset class stands out: infrastructure.	在现有方案中，有一种特定的资产类别脱颖而出：那就是基础设施建设。


Africa, which by 2050 will be home to an estimated 2.6 billion people, is in dire need of funds to build and maintain roads, ports, power grids, and so on.	非洲预计到2050年人口将达26亿左右，因此急需资金来修建和维护道路、港口、电网等基础设施。


According to the World Bank, Africa must spend a staggering $93 billion annually to upgrade its current infrastructure; the vast majority of these funds – some 87% – are needed for improvements to basic services like energy, water, sanitation, and transportation.	据世界银行统计，非洲必须每年花费惊人的930亿美元用于升级其现有基础设施； 而这些资金中的绝大多数——约占87%——将用于改善能源、饮用水、卫生和交通运输等基础服务。


Yet, if the recent past is any guide, the capital needed will be difficult to secure.	但如果说过去有任何经验可以借鉴，那就是筹措所需资金绝不是一项轻而易举的任务。


Between 2004 and 2013, African states closed just 158 financing deals for infrastructure or industrial projects, valued at $59 billion – just 5% of the total needed.	在2004到2013年间，非洲国家仅实际完成了158项基础设施或工业项目的融资交易，总值590亿美元——仅占所需资金总额的5%。


Given this track record, how will Africa fund even a fraction of the World Bank’s projected requirements?	鉴于这样的过往经历，非洲能否筹措到世界银行预测要求的哪怕一小部分资金都存在很大变数。


The obvious source is institutional and foreign investment.	最明显的资金来源是机构和国外投资。


But, to date, many factors, including poor profit projections and political uncertainty, have limited such financing for infrastructure projects on the continent.	但到目前为止，许多因素，包括盈利预测不佳和政治不稳定，都对非洲大陆基础设施项目的融资能力构成了严重的限制。


Investment in African infrastructure is perceived as simply being too risky.	对非洲基础设施项目投资被视为高风险的选项。


Fortunately, with work, this perception can be overcome, as some investors – such as the African Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and the Trade & Development Bank – have already demonstrated.	幸运的是，就像一些投资者——如非洲开发银行、南部非洲开发银行和贸易发展银行——已经证明的那样，经过艰苦的努力，这种消极的看法可以被克服。


Companies from the private sector are also profitably financing projects on the continent.	来自私营部门的企业同样可以在非洲大陆基础设施项目融资当中有利可图。


For example, Black Rhino, a fund set up by Blackstone, one of the world’s largest multinational private equity firms, focuses on the development and acquisition of energy projects, such as fuel storage, pipelines, and transmission networks.	例如，由黑石公司设立的黑犀牛基金是全世界规模最大的跨国私募股权公司之一，该基金专门从事燃料储存、管道和输送网络等能源项目的开发和采购。


But these are the exceptions, not the rule.	但这些皆属例外，而非规则。


Fully funding Africa’s infrastructure shortfall will require attracting many more investors – and swiftly.	充分筹措资金解决非洲的基础设施短缺问题需要迅速吸引更多的投资者。


To succeed, Africa must develop a more coherent and coordinated approach to courting capital, while at the same time working to mitigate investors’ risk exposure.	要想取得成功，非洲必须制定一种更为协调一致的方法来讨好资本，并同时竭尽全力控制投资者的风险敞口。


Public-private sector collaborations are one possibility.	公共和私营部门合作提供了一种可能性。


For example, in the energy sector, independent power producers are working with governments to provide electricity to 620 million Africans living off the grid.	例如，在能源领域，独立的电力生产企业正在与政府合作为6. 2亿尚未接入电网的非洲民众提供电能。


Privately funded but government regulated, these producers operate through power purchase agreements, whereby public utilities and regulators agree to purchase electricity at a predetermined price.	这些电力生产企业由私人出资并接受政府监管，通过电力采购协议来完成运营，公共事业部门和监管机构在电力采购协议中同意以事先约定的价格采购电力供应。


There are approximately 130 such producers in Sub-Saharan Africa, valued at more than $8 billion.	撒哈拉以南非洲地区约有130家这样的电力生产企业，总值超过80亿美元。


In South Africa alone, 47 projects are underway, accounting for 7,000 megawatts of additional power production.	仅南非一地就在开展47个相关项目，总共可以达到7000兆瓦的新增电力产能。


Similar private-public partnerships are emerging in other sectors, too, such as transportation.	交通运输等其他部门也正在出现类似的公私合作关系。


Among the most promising are toll roads built with private money, a model that began in South Africa.	其中最有前景的当属最早出现在南非的由私人投资兴建的收费公路。


Not only are these projects, which are slowly appearing elsewhere on the continent, more profitable than most financial market investments; they are also literally paving the way for future growth.	这些在非洲大陆其他地方逐渐出现的项目不仅比多数金融市场投资更有利可图； 而且正在事实上为未来的经济增长铺平道路。


Clearly, Africa needs more of these ventures to overcome its infrastructure challenges.	显而易见，非洲需要更多这样的合资公司才能迎接基础设施所带来的挑战。


That is why I, along with other African business leaders and policymakers, have called on Africa’s institutional investors to commit 5% of their funds to local infrastructure.	因此我和非洲商业领袖及决策者共同呼吁非洲机构投资者将5%的资金用于投资当地的基础设施。


We believe that with the right incentives, infrastructure can be an innovative and attractive asset class for those with long-term liabilities.	我们相信只要激励措施得当，基础设施对那些拥有长期负债的机构而言完全可以成为创新且有吸引力的资产类别。


One sector that could lead the way on this commitment is the continent’s pension funds, which, together, possess a balance sheet of about $3 trillion.	能够领导这一目标的部门之一是非洲大陆的养老基金，该部门合计拥有约3万亿美元的资产负债表。


The 5% Agenda campaign, launched in New York last month, underscores the belief that only a collaborative public-private approach can redress Africa’s infrastructure shortfall.	上个月在纽约启动的5%议程行动强调了这样一种理念，即仅有公私合作方式能够改变非洲的基础设施短缺。


For years, a lack of bankable projects deterred international financing.	多年以来，缺乏银行贷款项目阻碍了国际融资。


But in 2012, the African Union adopted the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa, which kick-started more than 400 energy, transportation, water, and communications projects.	但2012年，非洲联盟通过了非洲基础设施开发计划，启动了超过400个能源、交通运输、水资源和通讯项目。


It was a solid start – one that the 5% Agenda seeks to build upon.	这是一个相当不错的开始——也是5%议程行动赖以存在的基础。


But some key reforms will be needed.	但必须进行某些关键领域的改革。


A high priority of the 5% Agenda is to assist in updating the national and regional regulatory frameworks that guide institutional investment in Africa.	5%议程行动的重要目标是协助升级国家和地区监管框架，从而引导非洲的机构投资。


Similarly, new financial products must be developed to give asset owners the ability to allocate capital directly to infrastructure projects.	同样，必须开发新的金融产品，以便资产所有者能够将资金直接划拨给基础设施项目。


Unlocking new pools of capital will help create jobs, encourage regional integration, and ensure that Africa has the facilities to accommodate the needs of future generations.	解锁新的资金池将有助于创造就业机会、鼓励区域一体化及确保非洲拥有能满足子孙后代需求的基础设施项目。


But all of this depends on persuading investors to put their money into African projects.	但所有这些都取决于能否说服投资者将资金投入非洲建设项目。


As business leaders and policymakers, we must ensure that the conditions for profitability and social impact are not mutually exclusive.	身为商界领袖和决策者，我们必须确保赚取利润和社会影响的条件能够相互融合。


When development goals and profits align, everyone wins.	如果发展目标能够和利润保持一致，那么所有人都是赢家。


Freeing Africa’s Internet	解放非洲的互联网


WASHINGTON, DC – Much to the dismay of the government in Addis Ababa, “Zone 9” has become a household name in Ethiopia.	华盛顿—让亚的斯亚贝巴政府大吃一惊的是，“第九区”（Zone 9）成了埃塞俄比亚一个家喻户晓的名字。


Since 2012, this small group of journalists-turned-online activists has used social media to campaign for political freedoms and civil liberties in their country.	2012年以来，这个线上记者活跃分子团体利用社交媒体要求国家实现政治自由和公民自由。


The group’s success – measured, for example, by the flood of likes and comments on its Facebook page – has come in spite of government efforts to silence the writers, including the arrest of six members in 2014 on trumped-up terrorism charges.	它的成功——比如可以用其Facebook页面上的点赞和评论数量衡量——是在政府试图让写手噤声的情况下取得的，包括2014年六名成员因为子虚乌有的恐怖主义指控而被逮捕。


Ethiopia’s government is not alone in seeking to consolidate political power by restricting what citizens say online.	埃塞俄比亚政府不是唯一一个试图通过限制公民的网络言论来巩固政治权力的政府。


Across Africa, governments are enacting legislation to restrict Internet access and outlaw criticism of elected officials.	放眼非洲，许多政府都实施了限制互联网接入、将对当选官员的批评入罪的法律。


Digital campaigners face myriad censorship tactics, including “Border Gateway Protocol” attacks, “HTTP throttling,” and “deep packet inspections.”	数字活动家面对各种审查技术，如“边界网关协议”攻击、“HTTP限流”和“深层封包检测”等。


The irony, of course, is that censorship rarely quiets the disaffected.	当然，讽刺的是审查很少能够让不满噤声。


Rather than quelling dissent, government intervention only inspires more people to take their grievances to WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms, where Africans are increasingly challenging corrupt governments, exposing rigged elections, and demanding to be heard.	政府干预非但不能镇压异见，反而刺激了更多的人在WhatApp、Facebook、Twitter和其他社交媒体平台上宣泄不满，非洲人通过这些渠道对日益挑战腐败的政府、曝光被操纵的选举，并要求自己的声音被听到。


At the moment, however, few of Africa’s leaders are listening.	但此时此刻，很少有非洲领导人在聆听。


Leaders in nine of the 18 African countries that held elections in 2016 placed some level of restriction on the Internet to limit dissent.	在2016年举行了选举的18个非洲国家中，有九个国家的领导人实施了某种程度的互联网限制以遏制异见。


Four days prior to Uganda’s presidential vote in February, President Yoweri Museveni cut access to mobile payment services and social media sites.	2月份乌干达总统选举投票前四天，总统穆塞韦尼切断了移动支付服务和社交媒体网站。


In August and September, Gabon’s president, Ali Bongo, seeking to project an atmosphere of calm to the international community, shut down Internet access overnight.	8月和9月，加蓬总统班戈意欲在国际社会面前营造平静的氛围，关闭了夜间互联网接入。


Then in December, officials in Democratic Republic of the Congo ordered an Internet shutdown the day before President Joseph Kabila was scheduled to leave office, thereby quashing online dissent when he refused to step down.	12月，民主刚果官员下令在总统卡比拉卸任前一天关闭互联网，以压制他拒绝下台所引发的网上异见。


Internet blackouts like these violate people’s human rights and undermine democratic processes.	这类断网行为违反了人权，也破坏了民主进程。


Last year, the United Nations Human Rights Council approved a resolution affirming that, “rights that people have offline must also be protected online, in particular freedom of expression.”	去年，联合国人权委员会通过了一项决议，重申“人们在线下的权利，在线上也必须得到保护，特别是言论自由。 ”


Most African governments try to justify Internet embargoes by arguing that the restrictions are necessary to ensure public safety and security.	大部分非洲政府用辩称断网是为了确保公共安全和安保而不得已而为之。


Museveni, for example, claimed that blocking Internet access was the only way to protect visiting heads of state during his swearing-in ceremony.	比如，穆塞韦尼宣称切断互联网接入是在其就职典礼上保护来访的各国首脑的唯一办法。


But he presented no evidence linking social media accessibility and security in Uganda, or anywhere else.	但他没有拿出任何证据证明社交媒体接入和乌干达或其他任何国家的安全有什么联系。


According to Access Now, an international advocacy group for digital rights, people typically feel less secure without the Internet, because they cannot access information or connect with friends and family in times of uncertainty.	据推动数字权利的国际团体“马上连通”（Access Now）组织的数据，断网通常让人感到更不安全，因为人们无法在不确定时获得信息或与亲朋取得联系。


With several key African elections coming up, Internet shutdowns are again on the horizon.	随着多个非洲国家重要选举的临近，断网也再次走进人们的视野。


In Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe, who is 93, is expected to run for his eighth term in mid-2018, a government-led crackdown appears inevitable.	在津巴布韦，93岁的总统穆加贝预计将履任其第八个总统任期（从2018年年中开始），政府主导的镇压行动看来已是势在必行。


For decades, Mugabe has relied on intimidation and violence to stifle political dissent.	几十年来，穆加贝依靠恐吓和暴力扼杀政治异见。


It is not surprising, then, that he has already begun taking a hostile approach to online activism.	因此，毫不奇怪，他早已对在线活动持敌对态度。


Last year, his government shut down the Internet in the middle of political protests, and vowed to arrest anyone caught generating or sharing “abusive or subversive material on social media.”	去年，他的政府在政治示威期间关闭了互联网，并宣称要逮捕所有制造或分享“社交媒体上的诽谤或颠覆性材料”的人。


But citizens are not helpless.	但公民并非无望。


While governments issue orders to cut off Internet access, only telecommunications companies have the ability to hit the “kill switch.”	政府固然可以下令断网，但只有通讯公司有能力按下“死亡开关”。


That is why Africa’s bloggers and online activists must work more closely with investors and shareholders of communications firms to convince them to stand up for democracy and human rights by resisting illiberal government directives.	因此，非洲博客写手和在线活动家们必须更加紧密地与通讯企业的投资者和股东合作，说服他们力挺民主和人权，拒绝反自由的政府指令。


Moreover, civil-society groups, the African Union, and the UN should do more to condemn national legislation that aims to normalize restrictive Internet policies.	此外，公民社会团体、非洲联盟和联合国应该加大力度谴责旨在将限制互联网的政策常规化的立法。


Just as it launched a model law on access to information in 2013, the African Union should provide new guidance to states on how to safeguard the right to assemble and express views online.	2013年，非盟发布了信息接触示范法，如今，它应该为各国提供新的指引，教它们如何捍卫在线收集和表达观点的权利。


Finally, new continent-wide measures are needed to ensure that Africans’ online rights are recognized and respected by their governments.	最后，需要新的洲级措施确保非洲在线权利得到政府和承认和尊重。


Although the UN Human Rights Council’s resolution to protect online freedoms is not binding, it offers a starting point for ensuring that governments allow citizens to use the Internet as a tool for maximizing political participation.	尽管保护在线自由的联合国人权委员会决议不具有约束力，但它为确保政府允许公民将互联网用作政治参与最大化的工具提供了一个起点。


Such interventions are needed now more than ever.	这些干预比以往任何时候都更加需要。


The Kenyan, Zimbabwean, and Ethiopian legislatures are currently considering laws that would permit significantly greater government control over Internet access.	肯尼亚、津巴布韦和埃塞俄比亚立法机关正在考虑显著扩大政府互联网接入管制权的立法。


Last year, Tanzania adopted legislation that has already been used to charge individuals with crimes who have criticized President John Magufuli on social media.	去年，坦桑尼亚实施了一项立法，被用来对在社交媒体上批评总统马古富力的个人提起刑事指控。


Whether governments bar citizens from gathering in public, signing petitions, or accessing the Internet and posting on social media makes no difference.	不管政府是禁止公民公开集会、签署请愿书，还是禁止公民接入互联网并在社交媒体上发帖，并没有什么区别。


All such measures are designed to strip citizens of their rights.	所有这些措施都是为了剥夺公民的权利。


The battle for freedom, as Zone 9 has shown, is no less real when the public square is the digital domain.	第九区表明，为了自由的斗争在数字领域和在公共广场上一样真实。


Empowering the Other Half of Africa’s Economy	赋权非洲经济的另一半


JOHANNESBURG – Julius Nyerere, the founding president of Tanzania, once said that “unity” will not make Africa rich, but “it can make it difficult for Africa and the African peoples to be disregarded and humiliated.”	约翰内斯堡—坦桑尼亚建国总统朱利乌斯·尼雷尔曾说，“联合”无法让非洲变富，但“可以让非洲和非洲人民不再那么容易被轻视、被屈辱。


But, two decades later, Africa remains divided along a key fault line: gender.	”但是，二十年过去了，仍然有一条断层线将非洲一分为二，那就是性别。


To realize Nyerere’s vision of a strong, dignified continent, Africa needs a new era of liberation, one that is fueled by the economic empowerment of the continent’s women.	要想实现尼雷尔的让非洲成为一个强大的、有尊严的大洲的愿景，非洲需要一个自由的新时代，为非洲妇女经济赋权能够为这个时代增添动力。


Although projections by the consultancy McKinsey anticipate that by 2040, Africa will have the world’s largest labor force, with more than 1.1 billion people of working age, more than 60% of Africa’s current population still survive on less than $2 a day.	麦肯锡咨询公司预测，到2040年，非洲将拥有全世界最大规模的劳动力，工作年龄人扣将超11亿人，但在非洲当前人口中，超过60%的人生活水平仍然低于每天2美元。


It is obvious that while many Africans have benefited from political emancipation – the legacy of Nyerere’s generation – poverty remains a significant obstacle.	显然，尽管许多非洲人从政治解放中获益——这是尼雷尔这一代人留下的遗产——但贫困仍然是一个巨大的障碍。


Unleashing the employment potential of African women is the best way to overcome it.	释放非洲妇女的就业潜力，是克服这一障碍的最佳办法。


As it stands, Africa’s women continue to be underrepresented in key industries and executive roles, owing to workplace discrimination and patriarchal expectations at home.	目前，非洲妇女在重要行业和管理岗位上仍然鲜有代表人物，造成这一现象的原因是职场歧视和父权家庭。


Unless barriers to entering the formal economy are removed and women are presented with options that enable them to realize their full potential, Africa’s socioeconomic development will continue to be impeded.	除非能够取消阻碍妇女进入正式经济的壁垒，让妇女拥有充分实现她们的潜力的选择，否则非洲社会经济发展将继续饱受抑制。


But while women are essential to the continent’s progress, they are still too often regarded as being secondary.	但是，尽管妇女对于非洲的进步至关重要，她们仍然常被视为二等公民。


Women must therefore claim their right to sit where decisions are made, and to shape the policies, plans, and strategies that will affect their lives and the lives of Africans for generations to come.	因此，妇女必须主张她们参与决策的权利，主张她们参与影响她们以及未来非洲人民生活的政策、计划和战略的权利。


Studies have shown that if more women had access to male-dominated occupations in Africa, worker productivity would rise by as much as 25%.	研究表明，如果更多的非洲妇女能够获得男性主宰的职位，劳动生产率将提高多达 25%。


That would be good for the overall economy, but also for women in general, as it would open up new avenues for social empowerment.	这对于总体经济来说是一个好消息，对一般妇女来说也是好消息，因为这会打开新的社会赋权之门。


When women participate in the job market and engage actively in business or political decision-making, patriarchal power dynamics shift, elevating the social status of women.	如果妇女能够进入就业市场，积极参与商业或政治决策，父权社会的动态就会发生改变，提高妇女的社会地位。


Economic equality also challenges accepted beliefs, and dispels harmful myths that perpetuate narrow definitions of gender norms.	经济平等也在挑战现有的信念，消除让狭隘的性别规范大行其道的有害的传说。


In other words, bringing more women into the workplace leads to an emancipation of mindset – in men and women alike.	换句话说，让更多妇女进入职场，能够带来解放思维——不管是对男性还是对女性。


What Nyerere so eloquently said of Africa as a whole is no less true for its women: unity is the key to realizing our potential.	尼雷尔对于非洲的雄辩之辞，对于非洲妇女同样成立：联合是实现我们的潜力的关键。


When we come together as generators of wealth, it becomes impossible for us to go unrecognized for our economic contributions and marginalized in our entrepreneurial endeavours.	当我们拧成一股绳，成为财富的创造者，我们的经济贡献就不会得不到承认，我们在我们的创业努力中也不会被边缘化。


At the Graça Machel Trust, we are joining together with civil-society actors, the private sector, and governments across the continent to lead a new economic liberation movement for women.	在格拉夏·马谢尔信托，我们与全非洲的公民社会行动方、私人部门和政府合作，领导着一场妇女经济解放运动。


Divided, we are weak, but together, Africa’s women have the ability to confront and overcome the barriers that have kept us from full participation in our respective economies.	分则弱，但如果我们能够合在一起，非洲妇女就有能力面对和克服让我们无法充分参与到各自经济中的障碍。


There is power in networks.	网络存在力量。


My organization’s approach to economic advancement is to establish and strengthen informal and official networks, through which women can, in time, increase their participation and visibility in key sectors.	我的组织对于经济进步的方针就是建立和强化非正式的和官方的网络，通过这些网络，妇女能够及时提高她们在重要部门的参与度和辨识度（visibility）。


That is why we are launching the “Women Advancing Africa” initiative, which is part of our ongoing effort to amplify the voices of Africa’s underrepresented and to establish a pan-African women’s movement, in which women can come together to transform the continent.	因此，我们启动了“妇女推动非洲”（Women Advancing Africa）计划，这是我们强化没有赢得足够代表的群体的声音，以及建立一个让妇女联合起来改变非洲的泛非洲妇女运动的努力的一部分。


The inaugural Women Advancing Africa Forum will take place this week in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and will convene more than 250 women leaders from across the continent.	妇女推动非洲论坛将于本周在坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆正式起航，届时将有来自非洲各地的250多位妇女领袖与会。


Under the overarching theme of “Driving Social and Economic Transformation,” the Forum will focus on three strategic goals: promoting financial inclusion, increasing market access, and driving social change.	论坛的总主题是“推动社会和经济转型”，将关注三个战略性目标：促进金融包容、增加市场准入，一级推动社会变革。


We aim to emerge from the Forum with a common agenda for our participation as full economic actors.	我们的目标是通过论坛形成一个共同日程，让我们成为全面的经济参与者。


It has been just over 20 years since Nyerere encouraged us to work toward African unity.	尼雷尔鼓励我们致力于非洲的联合不过20年。


Today, Africa’s women are helping to shape the policies and practices that will bring about economic and social liberation in their respective countries.	如今，非洲妇女正在影响能给各自国家带来经济和社会解放的政策和实践。


We have some way to go before African unity is fully realized.	充分实现非洲联合还有很长的路要走。


But enabling women to become full partners in Africa’s economic future, is among the best ways to ensure that we succeed.	但让妇女成为非洲经济未来的全面伙伴，则是确保我们能够成功的最佳办法之一。


A Big Bond for Africa	非洲大债券


LAGOS – The countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have reached a critical juncture.	拉各斯—撒哈拉以南非洲诸国走到了关键时刻。


Strained by a collapse in commodity prices and China’s economic slowdown, the region’s growth slipped to 3.4% in 2015 – nearly 50% lower than the average rate over the previous 15 years.	受困于大宗商品价格暴跌和中国经济减速，2015年该地区增长率下滑到3. 4%——比此前15年的平均水平低了近50%。


The estimated growth rate for 2016 is lower than the population growth rate of about 2%, implying a per capita contraction in GDP.	2016年预计增长率更是低于2%左右的人口增长率，这意味着人均GDP将有所下降。


Sustained economic growth is essential to maintain progress on reducing poverty, infant mortality, disease, and malnutrition.	持续的经济增长对于保持降低贫困、婴儿死亡率、疾病和营养不良等方面的进步至关重要。


It is also the only way to create sufficient good jobs for Africa’s burgeoning youth population – the fastest growing in the world.	保持经济增长也是为不断膨胀的年轻人口创造足够的优质岗位的唯一办法——非洲年轻人口增长率为世界之最。


As Gerd Müller, Germany’s development minister, noted at a recent press conference, “If the youth of Africa can’t find work or a future in their own countries, it won’t be hundreds of thousands, but millions that make their way to Europe.”	德国发展部长戈尔德·穆勒（Gerd Müller）在最近的新闻发布会上指出，“如果非洲年轻人不能在祖国找到工作和未来，就会有数百万计，而不是几万或几十万人想方设法来到欧洲。 ”


One way to sustain growth and create jobs would be to collaborate on planning and implementing a massive increase in infrastructure investment across Africa.	保持增长、创造就业的一个办法是在整个非洲共同规划和实施大规模增加基础设施投资。 公共基础设施尤其重要。


Public infrastructure is particularly important.	它们包括高速公路、桥梁和铁路，将内陆国的农业生产者与非洲城市消费者和外部市场连接起来；


This includes highways, bridges, and railways linking rural producers in landlocked countries to Africa’s urban consumers and external markets; mass transit and Internet infrastructure to accommodate greater commercial activity; and electricity transmission lines integrating privately financed power plants and grids.	包括大规模运输和互联网基础设施，以容纳更多的商业活动； 也包括输电线路，将私人融资的发电厂和电网融合在一起。


Major regional projects are also needed to knit together Sub-Saharan Africa’s many tiny economies.	撒哈拉以南非洲的许多微型经济体也需要通过大型地区项目联系在一起。


This is the only way to create the economies of scale needed to increase the export potential of African agriculture and industry, as well as to reduce domestic prices of food and manufactured goods.	这是创造规模经济的唯一办法，而国模经济则是提升非洲农业和工业出口潜力，以及降低食品和制造品的国内价格的必要条件。


While governments in Africa are spending more on public infrastructure themselves, outside finance is still required, especially for regional projects, which are rarely a top priority for national governments.	尽管非洲各国政府正在增加自身的公共基础设施支出，但仍然需要外部融资，特别是对于很少成为国家政府重中之重的地区项目。


Yet aid from Africa’s traditionally generous foreign donors, including the United States and Europe, is now set to shrink, owing to political and economic constraints.	但传统的慷慨出资者，包括美国和欧洲，目前都因为政治和经济约束而准备缩减援助。


But there may be a solution that helps Africa recover its growth in a way that Western leaders and their constituents find acceptable.	但也许存在一种办法，可以帮助非洲增长恢复，并且被西方领导人和他们的选民所接受。


We call it the “Big Bond” – a strategy for leveraging foreign aid funds in international capital markets to generate financing for massive infrastructure investment.	我们称之为“大债券”——利用外国援助资金作为国际资本市场杠杆，为大规模基础设施投资筹集融资。


Specifically, donors would borrow against future aid flows in capital markets.	具体而言，出资者可以在资本市场中，根据未来援助流贷款。


That way, they could exploit current low interest rates at home, as they generate new resources.	如此，它们可以利用目前本国的低利率来开源。


With 30-year US Treasury rates of about 3%, donors would have to securitize only about $5 billion to raise $100 billion.	30年美国国债利率大约在3%，出资者只需要证券化大约50亿美元，就能筹集1,000亿美元。


That money could come from the $35 billion in annual official development assistance (ODA) to Africa (which totals about $50 billion) that takes the form of pure grants.	这笔钱可以来自每年对非洲的纯捐赠形式的350亿官方发展援助（ODA，总量大约为500亿美元）。


Donors would pass on the interest cost to African countries, reducing their own fiscal costs.	出资者可以将利息成本砖家给非洲国家，降低它们自身的财政负担。


For African countries, the terms would be better than those provided by Eurobonds.	对非洲国家来说，条件也要优于欧元债券所提供的条件。


In fact, as audacious as it may sound, passing on the interest costs to recipient countries could actually bolster their debt sustainability.	事实上，尽管这听上去有些冒险，将利息成本转嫁给受资国实际上可以加强它们的债务可持续性。


According to a study of eight countries by the African Development Bank’s Policy Innovation Lab, a 3% interest rate in US dollar terms would be lower than the marginal cost of commercial borrowings undertaken by several African countries over the last five years.	据非洲开发银行政策创新实验室（Policy Innovation Lab）的一项针对八个国家的研究，3%的美元利率将比一些非洲国家在过去五年中进行的商业借贷的边际成本更低。


Moreover, far longer maturities and grace periods, compared to market finance, would ease growing pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.	此外，与市场融资相比远远更长的期限和宽限期将缓解对外汇储备的压力。


Frontloading aid in this way is not new.	这种形式的前置援助并非新事物。


Doing so in the early 2000s to finance vaccines saved millions of lives in the developing world.	21世纪初，以这种方式进行的疫苗融资拯救了数百万发展中国家的生命。


Big Bond resources, managed by the African Development Bank, could be used to help guarantee financing for major regional infrastructure projects that have long been stuck on the back burner, such as the East Africa Railway connecting Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi, and a highway stretching from Nigeria to Côte d’Ivoire.	在非洲开发银行的管理下，大债券资源可用于保证长期无法得到重点照顾的大型地区基础设施项目的融资，如连接坦桑尼亚、卢旺达和布隆迪的东非铁路以及从尼日利亚通往科特迪瓦的高速公路。


Such projects could also be co-financed by private investors.	这些项目也可以与私人投资者合作共同融资。


Moreover, the Big Bond could help to reinvigorate the relationship between donors and African countries.	此外，大债券有助于重振出资者和非洲国家之间的关系。


And, as it supports investments with important country-level benefits, it could serve as an incentive for African countries to pursue reforms that increase their absorptive capacity, in terms of choosing and executing public infrastructure investments.	此外，由于它支持能带来重要的国家层面收益的投资，因此可以成为非洲国家实施改革的激励，提高它们的吸收能力——如选择和执行公共基础设施投资。


The Big Bond approach represents a much-needed update to the ODA framework – one that supports higher and more sustainable growth in recipient countries, while lowering the burden on donor countries.	大债券方针是代表着ODA框架所急需的一个升级方向——它能支持受资国更高、更可持续的增长，同时减轻出资国的负担。


At a time when aid is under political pressure, perhaps such a bold approach to maximizing the efficiency of donor resources is exactly what the world needs.	如今，援助饱受政治压力，或许这一大胆的最大化援助资源效率的方针正是全世界所需要的。


Accelerating Africa’s Energy Transition	加快非洲能源转型


PARIS – For much of Africa, the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner forms of energy is seen as an environmental imperative.	巴黎—在非洲大部，从化石燃料向更清洁的能源形式的转型被视为一项环境当务之急。


With fossil fuels comprising a majority – as high as 70% in some cases – of the energy mix, the situation on the continent is indeed ecologically dire.	化石燃料在一些地区占能源构成的大多数——高达70%——非洲的形势确实非常不利于生态。


But Africa’s energy transition is economically urgent as well.	但从经济上说，非洲也迫切需要能源转型。


Each year, oil subsidies consume 1.5% of the continent’s GDP – roughly $50 billion.	非洲每年的石油补贴高达500亿美元左右，相当于全洲GDP的1.


That is enough money to provide solar power to some 300 million people.	5%。 这笔钱足以为3亿人提供太阳能。


If the continent could rebalance its energy portfolio, moving away from hydrocarbons slowly, those subsidies could be reallocated in ways that would yield both environmental and economic benefits.	如果非洲能够实现能源组合再平衡，逐渐摆脱碳氢化合物，那么这些补贴就能转作其他用途，产生环境和经济效益。


Today, neither oil exporters nor importers are adequately insulated from price shocks.	如今，石油出口国和进口国都无法避免受到价格冲击的影响。


When oil prices declined rapidly in 2015, for example, Africa’s energy importers spent less on oil, while exporting countries suffered financially.	2015年，比如，石油价格迅速下跌，非洲能源进口国的石油支出有所下降，而出口国则蒙受经济损失。


When prices rebounded, the relationship switched: energy-exporting countries’ revenues inched up, while importing countries struggled to maintain consumption levels.	当结果反弹时，关系正好相反，能源出口国收入增加，而进口国难以维持消费水平。


This is a needless cycle.	这是一个毫无必要的循环。


Integrating cleaner power into national energy systems would not only raise local capacities; it would also free up hydrocarbons for export.	将更清洁的电力纳入国家能源体系不但能够提高地方产能； 还能释放更多碳氢化合物用于出口。


The resulting revenue could then be invested into new forms of greener power.	由此获得的收入可以投资于新型绿色电力。


Such a transition, which would require cooperation with the oil sector, promises to boost socioeconomic progress.	这一转型需要石油部门的合作，有望对社会经济进步起到刺激作用。


Among the biggest benefits would be the electrification of areas that, under current distribution systems, are literally in the dark.	收益最大的某些地区的电气化。 在这些地区，以目前的配电系统，可以说是还生活在黑暗时代。


Today, just 30% of Africa has access to reliable electricity.	如今只有30%的非洲地区能够获得可靠电力。


But, with a total capacity estimated at around ten terawatts, installed solar capacity in Africa could broaden access dramatically.	但非洲建成太阳能装机容量据估计达到了十万亿瓦，可以大大扩大电力的普及。


In fact, according to some estimates, the increase in solar generation by 2030 could range from 15 to 62 gigawatts.	事实上，据某些估算，到2030年，太阳能发电量可以提高15到62十亿瓦。


Fossil fuels are not destined to be phased out anytime soon, but an energy mix that included a significant increase in solar power would have major economic advantages for Africa, especially in areas where agriculture is the largest economic sector.	化石燃料无法在短时间内退出，但如果能源组合中的太阳能比重能够显著提高，将给非洲带来的巨大的经济优势，特别是在农业是最重要的经济部门的地区。


Electrifying agricultural areas would facilitate the storage and transportation of farmed products, improve food security, and increase farmers’ earning capacity.	电气化农业区能够便利农作物的储存和 运输，改善粮食安全，提高农民的收入能力。


In the drive to rebalance Africa’s energy mix, the continent maintains one crucial advantage over developed economies: a clean slate.	在实现能源组合的再平衡的过程中，非洲拥有一个相对于发达经济体的重要优势：非洲是一块白板。


The relative absence of legacy investments is the principal reason why green power is Africa’s best energy option.	历史包袱相对较小是使绿色电力成为非洲最佳能源选择的主要原因。


Although every country must balance its own energy needs, reliance on renewable sources, and solar power in particular, is the most cost-efficient strategy for fostering rapid economic development throughout the continent.	尽管每个国家都必须平衡自身的能源需求，但依靠可再生资源（特别是太阳能），对于促进全非洲快速经济发展来说是性价比最高的策略。


Evidence of this potential can be found in the few photovoltaic power plants that have begun operating in Africa.	这一潜力有多大？ 从非洲已经开始运行的少数光伏发电厂可见一斑。


For example, the Senergy 2 solar plant in Senegal sells electricity to the Senegalese power utility at a price that lowers the cost of the energy mix by 50%.	比如，塞内加尔的Senergy 2太阳能电站向塞内加尔电网出售的电价能让能源总成本下降50%。


Similar solar solutions are being implemented by African telecoms to electrify communication towers.	类似的太阳能方案也被非洲电信公司用于给通讯塔供电。


The best way to accelerate the transition from hydrocarbons to greener forms of energy would be to redirect a portion of national oil subsidies to renewables.	加快从碳氢化合物到绿色能源的转型的最佳办法是将一部分国家石油补贴用于可再生能源。


This would create stronger incentives to reduce fossil-fuel consumption, while encouraging investment and growth in green-energy output.	这将带来更强的激励去降低化石燃料消费，同时鼓励绿色能源产出的投资和增长。


For Africa’s rural regions, moreover, such policies would help bring communities out of darkness and lead to the installation of other critical infrastructure that economic growth requires.	此外，对非洲农村地区来说，这类政策还有助于让社区摆脱黑暗，建造其他经济增长所需要的重要基础设施。


But while renewables hold the key to Africa’s long-term prosperity, the continent’s transition to cleaner power should not lead to an immediate, full-scale repudiation of hydrocarbons.	但尽管可再生能源是非洲长期繁荣的关键，非洲向清洁电力的转型也不应该立刻一刀切地否定碳氢化合物。


The oil sector will still have an important role to play.	石油部门仍将扮演重要的角色。


The industry’s experience on the continent will be needed to navigate the energy transformation.	非洲需要石油业的经验来完成能源转型。


And, because fossil fuels will remain part of the continent’s energy mix, the oil sector must be encouraged to clean up its own act.	而由于化石燃料仍然是非洲能源组合的一部分，因此也必须鼓励石油业向清洁化方向发展。


This may sound like an impossible alliance.	这听上去像是一个不可能的联盟。


But as policymakers across the continent seek to secure adequate supplies of clean energy to ensure rapid, inclusive economic growth and environmental sustainability, they are likely to find that there is no alternative.	但在全非洲的决策者寻找确保清洁能源的充足供给，以保证高速、包容的经济增长和环境可持续性之际，他们也许会发现除此之外别无选择。


Cooperation between old and new energy industries may be the only engine that is capable of powering Africa forward.	新旧能源业的合作可能是能够推动非洲向前的唯一引擎。


Improving African Women’s Health Through Financial Inclusion	通过金融包容改善非洲女性健康


ACCRA – In late October, the World Health Organization’s Regional Office for Africa signed an agreement with the United Nations International Telecommunication Union (ITU).	阿克拉—去年10月，世界卫生组织非洲地区办公室与联合国国际电信联盟（ITU）签署了一份协议。


The aim of the unlikely partnership is to encourage the use of digital services “to save lives and improve people’s health.”	这一看似不可能的合作关系的目标是鼓励使用数字服务“拯救生命、改善人民健康”。


But perhaps the pact’s most innovative feature is the vow to merge financial inclusion strategies with modern health-care delivery.	但也许该协议最具创新性的部分在于它承诺将金融包容策略与现代医疗服务相结合。


Financial inclusion is a proven pathway to improving people’s health, especially the health of women in developing countries.	金融包容是证实了的改善人民健康的有效方法，特别是发展中国家女性的健康。


Women who can easily access bank accounts or cash payment options tend to invest more in their businesses and families.	能够轻松获得银行账户或现金支付选项的女性，往往会为她们的企业和家庭投入更多。


In turn, they live healthier, more satisfying lives.	反过来，她们也生活得更健康、更满足。


Yet, too often, initiatives like the one signed in October focus on one or the other – e-health or financial products like insurance.	但是，常常发生的情况是，类似10月份签署的协议这样的计划，总是关注其中之一——电子健康（e-health）或金融产品（如保险）。


Because Africans’ ability to earn and save money can be the difference between good care and no care at all, this represents a missed opportunity to help patients and build more resilient communities.	非洲人赚钱和存钱的能力决定了他能获得好医疗还是根本看不起病，因此这是一个被错过的帮助患者、构建恢复力更强的社会的机会。


The cost of this choice is disproportionately high for Africa’s women.	这一选择给非洲女性造成的代价尤其高昂。


In Nigeria, for example, 400,000 women live with obstetric fistula, a disabling condition often caused by complications in childbirth.	比如，在尼日利亚，有400,000女性身患产瘘，这是一种致残的分娩并发症。


In Tanzania, some 8,000 women die annually during pregnancy or delivery; most of these deaths could be prevented.	在坦桑尼亚，每年都有大约8,000女性死于妊娠或分娩； 这些死亡大部分是可以避免的。


And, across the continent, women’s life expectancy at birth is just 58 years, compared to more than 80 years in developed countries.	而就整个非洲而言，女性出生寿命预期只有58年，而发达国家高达80多年。


Progress is being made to connect women’s health solutions and financial inclusion.	人们正在努力将女性健康方案与金融包容联系起来，并在不断取得进步。


At a recent conference in Dar es Salaam, experts from the technology and financial services sector joined investors, philanthropists, and development specialists to devise ways to make finance work for Africa’s women.	在达累斯萨拉姆举行的最新会议上，来自科技和金融服务业的专家与投资者、慈善家和发展专家一起为非洲女性制定金融工作方法。


Through programs like these, development experts can advocate for digital solutions as a means of social and financial empowerment.	通过类似于此的计划，发展专家能够宣传作为社会和金融赋权手段的数字方案。


Unfortunately, cooperation like the pact signed in October is the exception, rather than the norm.	不幸的是，类似于10月所签署的协议的合作计划只是例外，而不是常例。


Banks, regulators, finance ministries, and telecommunications companies all frequently gather to consider financial inclusion without the local and global health community.	银行、监管者、财政部门和电信企业都在频繁开会讨论金融包容性，但并没有将本地和全球医疗界包括进去。


This must change if we are to build more inclusive platforms for African patients and clients.	如果我们想要为非洲患者和客户建立更加包容性的平台，这一点必须改变。


The first step is to identify missed opportunities.	第一步是认识错失的机会。


A big one stems from the disparate approaches to bringing financial services and digitized health care to rural parts of Africa.	一个大机会是采取不同方法将金融服务和数字化医疗服务推广到非洲农村地区。


At the moment, banks and mobile network operators are working to expand their digital banking services to unbanked and under-banked clients.	目前，银行和移动网络运营商正致力于扩大数字银行服务，以覆盖没有银行账户或银行服务不足的客户。


At the same time, community health workers (CHWs) are operating in these regions to prevent, treat, and refer patients to clinics.	与此同时，社区卫生工作者（CHW）正在这些地区展开预防、治疗和分诊工作。


Combining these efforts makes sense, because both initiatives rely heavily on trust.	将这些措施相结合非常有意义，因为两项计划都非常依赖信任。


Through pre-established networks, CHWs could augment their e-health offerings with financial products, like mobile cash payment systems.	通过预先构建的网络，CHW能够利用金融产品，如移动现金支付系统来扩大电子健康服务覆盖面。


Broadening digital disease management and access to health information to include financial wellbeing would create natural synergies.	扩大数字疾病管理和健康信息普及以纳入金融福祉能产生自然的协同效应。


While there are some concerns that adding responsibilities to CHWs could undermine health-care quality, a fragmented approach to prosperity is even more damaging.	有人担心增加CHW的责任会拖累医疗质量，但碎片化的繁荣观弊端更大。


Once opportunities for expansion are identified, other issues will need to be addressed before women’s health and financial inclusion programs can be widened.	在认识到扩大的机会后，在女性健康和金融包容性计划得到推广之前，还需要解决其他问题。


For starters, a lack of sex-disaggregated data makes it difficult to draft policies based on health quality and financial need.	首先，缺乏按性别区分的数据导致难以根据健康质量和金融需要来制定政策。


Although some countries, such as Burundi and Senegal, are working to improve their gender-specific data collection, a broader, more coordinated push is needed.	尽管布隆迪和塞内加尔等国家正致力于改善具体的性别数据收集，但仍需要范围更广、更具协作性的计划。


Raising the region’s financial literacy will be another challenge.	增进地区的金融知识是另一项挑战。


The ability to understand and execute matters of personal finance is the weakest link in transforming women’s opportunities through financial inclusion.	理解和执行个人金融事务的能力是通过金融包容改变女性机会的链条上的最弱一环。


Moreover, financial literacy is a pre-requisite for the rollout of financing initiatives, such as programs that support women-led small and micro-enterprises.	此外，金融知识是启动融资计划——如支持女性领导的小微企业——的先决条件。


If financial literacy levels can be raised, women can access resources such as land and credit, tools that hold the keys to business development, social mobility, and personal growth.	如果能够提升金融知识水平，女性就能获得土地和信用等资源，这些工具是商业发展、社会流动性和个人成长的关键。


Progress has been made in leveling the playing field, but these gains must be sustained.	在构建公平竞技场方面，我们取得了一些进步，但必须保持势头。


The agreement between the WHO and the ITU will help promote wealth creation in parts of Africa where access to health care and financial services is lacking.	世卫组织和ITU的协议有助于促进缺乏医疗和金融服务的非洲地区的财富创造。


To maintain this momentum, deeper commitments are needed, especially from the global health community.	要保持这一势头，需要更深度的承诺，特别是来自全球医疗界的承诺。


But, however African governments proceed in digitizing their health and financial services offerings, women’s needs must remain at the center of any solution.	但是，不论非洲各国政府如何推进健康和金融服务数字化，女性的需要都必须作为他们的方案的核心。


Closing the Youth Apathy Gap	填补青年冷漠缺口


NAIROBI – When the United Nations’ member countries adopted the Sustainable Development Goals two years ago, they committed themselves to reduce substantially “the proportion of youth not in employment, education, or training.”	内罗毕—两年前，联合国成员国采纳可持续发展目标（SDG）时，它们自我承诺要可持续地减少“被排除在就业、教育和培训之外的青年的比例”。


That commitment will be virtually impossible to fulfill, unless political participation by young people increases considerably.	除非年轻人的政治参与能够显著增长，否则这一承诺几乎不可能实现。


Young people are critical to progress.	年轻人是进步的关键。


As US President Barack Obama put it in a 2015 speech in Nairobi, “no country can achieve its full potential unless it draws on the talents of all its people.”	美国总统巴拉克在2015 年的内罗毕演讲中指出，“除非一个国家能够依赖全体人民的才华，否则它就无法实现全部潜能。


And youth now comprise a large share of those people – 18% of the world’s population, to be precise.	”如今，青年构成了这些人民中的很大一部分——准确地说，他们占据了世界人口的18%。


The share is even larger in much of the developing world.	在大部分发展中国家，这个比例还会更高。


The median age of Africa’s population is just 19.5 years.	非洲人口的中位年龄只有19. 5岁。


Given their numbers, not to mention rising education and literacy rates, young people can make a world of difference, shaping political discourse and electoral outcomes.	从这些数据看——更不用说不断提高的教育水平和识字率了——年轻人能够改变世界，影响政治进程和选举结果。


But that requires them to be engaged and active.	但这需要他们参与和活跃。


In the United Kingdom, most young people wish to remain in the European Union.	在英国，大部分年轻人想要留在欧盟。


As a Lord Ashcroft poll showed, 73% of those aged 18-24, and 62% of those aged 25-34, voted accordingly in last year’s referendum.	阿什克罗夫特勋爵（Lord Ashcroft）调查表明，73%的18—24岁群体，以及62%的25—34岁群体，在去年的全民公决中投票赞成留欧。


But most young British did not actually show up to cast their votes, allowing the UK’s older, predominantly pro-Brexit cohorts to win the day.	但大部分英国年轻人实际上并没有行使投票权，这使得英国年长者——他们大多支持退欧——赢得了胜利。


Presumably having learned their lesson from the Brexit referendum, young Britons contributed to an unexpected victory for Labour in June’s snap general election.	想必是从退欧公投中汲取了教训，英国年轻人在6月份的临时大选中帮助工党赢得了出人意料的胜利。


In Kenya’s presidential election, held last month, 51% of registered voters were below the age of 35 years.	在上个月举行的肯尼亚总统选举中，51%的注册选民年龄低于35岁。


Although the Supreme Court annulled the results and ordered a fresh vote, owing to electoral irregularities and illegalities, large numbers of young people are likely to turn out again.	尽管最高法院因为选举违规和违法行为推翻了结果，勒令重新投票，但大量年轻人可能会再次走向投票箱。


Unfortunately, Kenya is the exception that proves the rule.	不幸的是，肯尼亚只是一个证明了规则的例外。


Political apathy among young people, like that seen in the Brexit referendum, remains pervasive worldwide.	年轻人的政治冷漠——就像英国退欧公投所表现的那样——仍然在全球范围内普遍存在。


In many regions of Africa, for example, young people are disillusioned with politics, convinced that wealthy older people will always prevail and advance their own interests, often at the expense of younger generations.	比如，在非洲大部，年轻人对政治早已幻灭，认定胜者永远是富有的年长者，他们推动自己的利益，牺牲年轻一代的利益。


This sense of disempowerment is threatening to turn the developing world’s youth bulge into a youth curse – with serious potential consequences.	这种失权（disempowerment）感有可能让发展中世界的青年膨胀（youth bulge，即青年占人口多数的现象）演变为青年诅咒——并带来严重的潜在后果。


The Arab Spring uprisings, which led to violence and instability in most affected countries, were fueled largely by desperate young people demanding rights and opportunities.	阿拉伯之春暴乱导致了大部分受影响国家陷入暴力和动荡，其背后的主要推动力正是绝望的年轻人要求权利和机会。


To avoid such outcomes, young people need to be part of their countries’ political life, able to advance their own vision of the future.	要避免这样的结果，年轻人必须成为国家政治生活的一部分，能够推动他们自己的未来愿景。


As young Kenyans repeated during the recent election campaign, “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.”	就像肯尼亚年轻人在最近的选战中一再强调的，“不入庙堂，便为鱼肉。 ”


So what can be done to increase political awareness and participation among young people?	那么，如何提高年轻人的政治意识和参与呢？


In Kenya, government efforts have focused on the creation of three institutions: the Ministry of Public Service, Youth, and Gender Affairs, the Youth Enterprise Development Fund, and the National Youth Council.	在肯尼亚，政府措施的重点是建立了三个机构：公共服务、青年和性别事务部、青年创业发展基金，以及国家青年委员会。


Though somewhat dysfunctional, these institutions have helped to empower Kenyan youth, driving the high election turnout last month.	尽管这些机构功能未必完善，但仍有助于赋权肯尼亚青年，为上个月选举的高投票率立下了功劳。


But perhaps the most effective approach to closing the apathy gap focuses on initiatives led by young people themselves.	但填补冷漠缺口的最有效的方针集中在由年轻人自己领导的项目上。


In Nigeria, young people spearheaded the Not Too Young to Run campaign, which led to a constitutional amendment lowering the minimum age for candidates.	在尼日利亚，年轻人领衔发起了“起步永不早”（Not Too Young to Run）运动，该运动促使尼日利亚修改宪法，降低候选人的最低年龄。


Their success inspired a global campaign to support young people’s right to run for office.	他们的成功启发了一场全球运动，支持年轻人主持政府部门的权利。


In Kenya, the youth-led Jiactivate– the name, which combines Swahili and English, means “Activate Yourself” – has sought to boost youth participation in politics by highlighting the main issues affecting young people.	在肯尼亚，青年领导的Jiactivate——这个名字结合了斯瓦西里语和英语，意为“激活你自己”——旨在通过强调影响年轻人的主要问题，提高青年的政治参与。


Jiactivate, in which I am engaged as National Chairperson, aims to serve as a platform that amplifies young Kenyans’ voices, offering them easier ways to take action.	我以全国理事长（National Chairperson）的身份参与了Jiactivate，我们的目标是充当一个放大肯尼亚年轻人的声音的平台，让他们更加方便地采取行动。


To inspire more such initiatives, there must be a deliberate effort to engage with youth in a way that supports real political engagement, not tokenism and empty rhetoric.	要想启发更多的类似项目，必须有意识地采取措施，以支持真正的政治参与的方式与年轻人合作，而不是做表面文章和空喊口号。


To that end, the Organisation of Africa Youth, of which I am coordinator, has not only worked with local youth groups and community networks; it has also taken lessons from a GeoPoll survey of 2,000 urban and rural Kenyan youth.	在这方面，由我担任协调员的非洲青年组织（Organisation of Africa Youth）不但与本地青年团体和社区网络合作； 还从一份覆盖2,000名肯尼亚城镇和农村青年的GeoPoll调查中总结经验。


That survey showed that, while 27% of respondents had never engaged politically, 26% had attended an event and 34% had posted on social media.	这份调查表明，27%的受访者从未参与过政治，但26%出席过政治事件，34%发布过社交媒体。


Moreover, 68% of respondents said that they would participate in political action only if they had access to a safe and trusted platform that would protect them from victimization, intimidation, or reprimand.	此外，68%的受访者说，只有在能够获得安全和可信任的平台渠道，能够保证他们不受伤害、恐吓和惩戒的情况下，才会参与政治活动。


One lesson than can be drawn from these data is the potential value of social media, which, despite being constrained in many countries during elections, remains a potent tool to facilitate youth political engagement.	从这些数据中，我们可以总结一个经验，即，尽管社交媒体在许多国家的选举期间饱受遏制，它仍然是便利青年参与政治的有力工具。


For example, by creatively using social media to collect, collate, and amplify young people’s priorities in the Kenyan elections, Jiactivate helped spur their interest in politics.	比如，Jiactivate创造性地利用社交媒体收集、整理和放大年轻人在肯尼亚选举中的重点关注点，提高了他们对政治的兴趣。


Nonetheless, many Kenyans who were popular on social media did not make much of an impact on the election’s outcome.	尽管如此，许多在社交媒体上广受欢迎的肯尼亚人，并没有对选举结果产生多少影响。


Translating social media energy into effective action in the real world remains a daunting challenge.	将社交媒体的能量转化为真实世界中的有效行动仍然是一个艰巨的挑战。


Increasing youth involvement in politics will require sustained commitment and hard work.	提高青年的政治参与度需要持续的努力和艰苦奋斗。


But, far from a deterrent, this should serve as a powerful incentive to get started.	但是，这不应该成为阻力，而应该成为刺激我们开始行动的强大动力。


No one is more affected by past, present, and future policies than young people.	年轻人是受过去、现在和未来政策影响最大的群体。


They must take their seat at the table, not wait until one is offered.	他们必须跻身庙堂，而不能坐等施舍。


The Transformative Power of Africa’s Youth	非洲青年的变革力量


TORONTO – A few years ago, during a conversation with young people from some of Senegal’s poorest communities, a pair of social entrepreneurs told me about projects they were working on to help their peers succeed.	多伦多——几年前，在与塞内加尔某些最贫困社区的年轻人交谈时，两位社会企业家对我讲述了他们正在进行的帮助同龄人取得成功的项目。


One young man said he planned to put more computers into primary schools; another had set up a network to connect rural job seekers in the urban tumult of Dakar, Senegal’s capital.	其中一位年轻人说他计划为小学配备更多电脑； 另外一位则在塞内加尔首都达卡尔的城市混乱中建立起了联系农村求职者的网络。


After they finished sharing their plans, I congratulated them, and said that their parents must be very proud.	在听完他们的计划后，我对他们表示祝贺，说他们的父母肯定是非常自豪的。


But instead of accepting the compliment, they demurred.	但他们非但没有接受赞美，反而陷入了沉默。


“My parents are against what I’m doing,” they said, almost in unison, before explaining that young people face family pressure to get a government job or use their English skills to work as a tour guide – not to become a risk-taking entrepreneur.	“我的父母反对我在做的事，”他们几乎异口同声的说，而后他们对我解释年轻人面临来自家庭的压力希望找到一份政府工作或者利用自己的英语技能成为导游——而不是成为冒险的创业者。


For ambitious young Africans, there are many obstacles to success.	对于雄心勃勃的非洲年轻人来说，需要克服许多障碍才能取得成功。


The journey to a job – whether formal or informal, entrepreneurial or traditional – is often a solitary one.	无论从事正式或非正式、创业或传统工作，求职的旅程往往都充满了孤独。


Many young people lack access to skills training or even a favorable social environment to try something new.	许多年轻人缺少技能训练，甚至得不到有利的社会环境来尝试新鲜事物。


As I was reminded that day in Senegal, helping young people find gainful employment is the most important thing that the international community can do to help Africa develop.	那天在塞内加尔的经历提醒我，帮助年轻人找到有价值的工作是国际社会能够帮助非洲发展的最重要的事务。


Africa is home to the world’s largest population of young people.	非洲拥有全世界数量最大的年轻人口。


In about 25 years, those young people will be part of the biggest workforce in the world, with more than 1.1 billion people of working age.	在未来25年间，这些年轻人将成为世界劳动大军的主力，其中有超过11亿工作年龄人口。


By some forecasts, 11 million people will enter Africa’s labor market each year for the next decade, most of whom will be first-time job seekers.	某些预测认为，未来十年，每年将有一千一百万人进入非洲劳动力市场，其中绝大多数都是首次求职者。


If African countries boost job growth and equip young people with employable skills, this youth bulge can deliver rapid, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth to the continent.	如果非洲国家促进就业增长并用就业技能武装年轻人，这股年轻人大潮可以为非洲大陆带来快速、包容和可持续的经济增长。


In turn, millions would have the opportunity to lift themselves out of poverty.	反过来，成百上千万人或许有机会摆脱贫困。


But Africa cannot achieve this future alone.	但非洲无法凭借一己之力实现这样的未来目标。


At the Mastercard Foundation, we believe that, if Africa is to reach its potential, gaps in two keys areas must be closed.	在万事达基金会，我们认为如果想让非洲充分发挥其潜力，那么有两大关键领域的差距必须得到弥补。


The first area is access to financial products and services.	第一个领域是获取金融产品和服务。


According to the World Bank, some two billion people around the world currently lack such access.	据世界银行统计，世界各地约有20亿人目前无法获得金融产品和服务。


In Sub-Saharan Africa, just 34% of adults have a bank account, making it difficult for people to put money aside for unplanned events, like a bad harvest, or to save for school.	在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，仅有34%的成年人拥有银行户头，这种状况为人们储蓄资金以备不时之需带来了困难，比如遇到农作物歉收或者为了积攒学费的需要。


This must change, with Africans gaining not only better access to banking systems, but also improved financial literacy.	这种状况必须改变，非洲民众不仅应当拥有更好的金融系统，而且应当提高金融素养。


The second key challenge that must be addressed is exclusion from secondary and higher education.	必须解决的第二个关键问题是排斥中等和高等教育。


While progress has been made in some regions, only about one-third of Africa’s young people graduate from high school.	尽管某些地区已经取得了进展，但从高中毕业的年轻人仅占约三分之一左右。 这方面女孩儿尤其弱势；


Girls are particularly disadvantaged; according to UNESCO, in Sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated nine million girls under the age of 11 have never been to school, compared to six million boys.	据联合国教科文组织统计，在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，估计有900万11岁以下女童从未接受过学校教育，而从未上过学的男童仅有600万左右。


To address these issues, the Mastercard Foundation has established partnerships with local organizations to design education and financial-literacy programs aimed at helping young people find and keep jobs.	为了解决这些问题，万事达基金会已经与当地组织建立了合作，目的是设计帮助年轻人找到并保住工作岗位的教育和金融素质项目。


By building a better-trained workforce, the Foundation’s programs are helping to empower the next generation of Africa’s community members and leaders, so that they can help their families, communities, and countries achieve a brighter and more prosperous future.	通过建设更加训练有素的劳动队伍，万事达基金会项目正在协助授权下一代非洲的社区成员和领导者，以便他们能够帮助自己的家庭、社区和国家实现更加光明和繁荣的未来。


Already, a new generation of educated and ethical entrepreneurs, like those I met in Senegal, is emerging across Africa, demonstrating a profound commitment to building a stronger Africa.	就像我在塞内加尔所遇到的那样，非洲各地正在涌现新一代受过教育且讲道德的企业家，体现了建设更强大非洲的深远的目标。


For example, when I ask young people participating in our Scholars Program what they plan to do with their new skills, they almost always reply that after getting a job, they plan to help somebody else, by returning to their secondary schools to serve as mentors to younger students.	例如，当我问及参与我们学者计划的年轻人他们学会技能后要做些什么，他们几乎无一例外地回答说在找到新的工作后，他们希望能帮助他人，比如回到自己毕业的中学担任导师辅导年轻的学生。


Some of our program’s graduates have even established community projects in their villages to address HIV/AIDS or to build shelters for orphans and young children.	我们课程的某些毕业生已经在自己的村里设立了应对艾滋病毒/艾滋病的社区计划，还有人修建了孤儿和幼儿收容机构。


Every one of these bright young Africans – examples of what the Mastercard Foundation calls “transformative leadership” in action – has the potential to drive change in their own countries and communities.	每个聪明的非洲年轻人——万事达基金会所谓“变革型领导者”的实例——都有可能在自己的国家和社区推动变革。


Those of us working in the field of international development can help level the playing field even more, by giving young Africans from all backgrounds an opportunity to lead in transformative ways.	我们这些国际发展领域工作者可以协助进一步创造公平环境，赋予所有背景的非洲年轻人机会以变革的方式进行领导。


If we succeed, Africa’s dreamers of today will be the catalysts of positive change tomorrow.	如果我们能够取得成功，非洲今天的梦想家将成为明天积极变革的催化力量。


Ethics and Agriculture	伦理与农业


MELBOURNE – Should rich countries – or investors based there – be buying agricultural land in developing countries?	墨尔本—发达国家（或那里的投资者）应该购买发展中国家的农地吗？


That question is raised in Transnational Land Deals for Agriculture in the Global South, a report issued last year by the Land Matrix Partnership, a consortium of European research institutes and nongovernmental organizations.	这是欧洲研究机构和非政府组织联合体土地矩阵合伙组织（Land Matrix Partnership）去年题为《南半球跨国农用土地交易》（Transnational Land Deals for Agriculture in the Global South）的报告中提出的问题。


The report shows that since 2000, investors or state bodies in rich or emerging countries have bought more than 83 million hectares (more than 200 million acres) of agricultural land in poorer developing countries.	报告显示，自2000年以来，发达或新兴国家的投资者或国家机构在更不发达国家购买了8 300多万公顷（2亿多英亩）的农地。


This amounts to 1.7% of the world’s agricultural land.	这相当于世界农地面积的1. 7%。


Most of these purchases have been made in Africa, with two-thirds taking place in countries where hunger is widespread and institutions for establishing formal land ownership are often weak.	大部分农地买卖发生在非洲，其中三分之二发生在饥饿蔓延、缺少正式土地所有权框架的国家。


The purchases in Africa alone amount to an area of agricultural land the size of Kenya.	非洲的农地买卖量相当于肯尼亚的总面积。


It has been claimed that foreign investors are purchasing land that has been left idle; thus, by bringing it into production, the purchases are increasing the availability of food overall.	外国投资者宣称自己购买的是闲置土地，因此，通过让这些土地形成产出，土地买卖增加了粮食供应量。


But the Land Matrix Partnership report found that this is not the case: roughly 45% of the purchases involved existing croplands, and almost a third of the purchased land was forested, indicating that its development may pose risks for biodiversity.	但土地矩阵合伙组织的报告发现并非如此：约45%的土地买卖对象是已存在的耕地，几乎三分之一的交易土地是林地，这表明开发可能威胁生物多样性。


The investments are both private and public (for example, by state-owned entities) and come from three different groups of countries: emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia, and South Korea; oil-rich Gulf states; and wealthy developed economies like the United States and several European countries.	这类投资既有私人部门，也有公共部门（如国有实体），主要购买者是三类国家：中国、印度、巴西、南非、马来西亚和韩国等新兴经济体； 波斯湾富油国；


On average, per capita income in the countries that are the source of these investments is four times higher than in the target countries.	以及美国和不少欧洲国家等富有的发达国家。 平均而言，投资来源国的人均收入比投资目标国高出四倍。


Most of the investments are aimed at producing food or other crops for export from the countries in which the land is acquired, for the obvious reason that richer countries can pay more for the output.	大部分投资的目的是在土地收购国生产粮食和其他作物并用于出口，其中的原因显而易见——较发达国家对土地产出的出价更高。


More than 40% of such projects aim to export food to the source country – suggesting that food security is a major reason for buying the land.	40%以上的投资目的是向投资来源国出口粮食——这表明粮食安全是购买土地的主要原因。


Oxfam International calls some of these deals “land grabs.”	国际乐施会（Oxfam International）将部分交易称为“抢地”。


Its own report, Our Land, Our Lives,indicates that, since 2008, communities affected by World Bank projects have brought 21 formal complaints alleging violations of their land rights.	其报告《我们的土地，我们的生命》（Our Land, Our Lives）显示，自2008年以来，受世界银行项目影响的社会共提出了21次指责破坏其土地权利的正式投诉。


Oxfam, drawing attention to large-scale land acquisitions that have entailed direct rights violations, has called on the Bank to freeze investments in land purchases until it can set standards ensuring that local communities are informed of them in advance, with the option of refusing them.	为了吸引人们对存在直接侵权现象的大规模土地收购的关注，乐施会呼吁世界银行冻结土地买卖投资，直到保证当地社会能提前获得告知并选择是否拒绝的标准出台。


Oxfam also wants the Bank to ensure that these land deals do not undermine either local or national food security.	乐施会还呼吁世界银行保证这些土地交易不能破坏当地和国家粮食安全。


In response, the World Bank agreed that there are instances of abuse in land acquisition, particularly in developing countries in which governance is weak, and said that it supported more transparent and inclusive participation.	作为回应，世界银行同意土地收购过程中存在不端行为，特别是在治理薄弱的发展中国家，并表示它支持更透明、更包容的参与。


At the same time, it pointed to the need to increase food production to feed the extra two billion people expected to be alive in 2050, and suggested that more investment in agriculture in developing countries is required to improve productivity.	与此同时，世界银行也指出，增加粮食产量以喂饱2050年的20亿预计新增人口是十分必要的，并暗示要改善生产率，就必须增加发展中国家的农业投资。


The Bank rejected the idea of a moratorium on its own work with investors in agriculture, arguing that this would target precisely those who are most likely to do the right thing.	世界银行拒绝中止其与农业投资者的合作，表示这类合作将明确定位于最有可能把事情作对的人和组织。


One may ask whether transparency and the requirement that local landholders consent to a sale is enough to protect people living in poverty.	你也许会问，有了透明度以及必须有当地地主愿意出售的要求就足以保护生活在贫困中的呃人们了吗？


Supporters of free markets will argue that if local landowners wish to sell their land, that is their choice to make.	自由市场的支持者会说，如果当地地主愿意出售他们的土地，那么这就是他们的自主选择。


But, given the pressures of poverty and the lure of cash, what does it take for people to be able to make a genuinely free and informed choice about selling something as significant as a right to land?	但是，在贫困的压力和现金的诱惑下，是什么让人们能够在信息充分的情况下真正自由地做出出售重要如土地的决策？


After all, we do not allow poor people to sell their kidneys to the highest bidder.	毕竟，我们不能允许穷人向出价最高者出售肾脏。


Of course, hardline supporters of free markets will say that we should.	当然，一根筋的自由市场支持者会说我们应该允许。


But, at the very least, it needs to be explained why people should be prohibited from selling kidneys, but not from selling the land that grows their food.	但是，无论如何，必须解释人们为什么应该被禁止出售肾脏而可以出售长出粮食的土地。


Most people can live without one kidney.	大部分人都可以在失去一个肾脏的情况下活着。


No one can live without food.	但没人可以在没有粮食的情况下活着。


Why does the purchase of body parts give rise to international condemnation, while the purchase of agricultural land does not – even when it involves evicting local landholders and producing food for export to rich countries instead of for local consumption?	为什么买卖人体器官会引发国际社会的谴责，而买卖农地则否——即使后者包括驱逐当地地主以及为发达国家而不是当地消费者生产供出口的粮食？


The World Bank may indeed be more concerned about local landholders’ rights than other foreign investors are.	事实上，与其他外国投资者相比，世界银行也许能够更关心当地地主的权利。


If so, the 21 complaints made against Bank projects are most likely the visible tip of a vast iceberg of violations of land rights by foreign investors in agricultural projects in developing countries – with the others remaining invisible because victims have no access to any complaint procedure.	果真如此的话，21份针对世界银行项目的投诉极有可能只是外国投资者在发展中国家农业项目上大规模侵犯土地权利状况的冰山一角，有大量侵权案例我们不曾看到，因为受害者投诉无门。


One such case belatedly came to the attention of the United Nations Human Rights Committee.	一宗此类案件终于引起了联合国人权委员会的注意。


In November, the Committee concluded that Germany had failed to police the Neumann Kaffee Gruppe regarding its complicity in the forced eviction of several villages in Uganda to make way for a large coffee plantation.	11月，该委员会认定德国在诺依曼咖啡集团（Neumann Kaffee Gruppe）串谋强迫驱赶乌干达几个村庄村民建立大规模咖啡种植园的问题上不作为。


But the evictions took place in 2001, and the villagers are still living in extreme poverty.	但驱赶行为发生在2001年，被驱赶的村民至今仍生活在极端贫困中，他们没有得到侵权补偿，不管是乌干达还是德国。


They found no remedy, in either Uganda or Germany, for the violation of rights that, according to the Committee, they possess under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to which Germany is a signatory.	他们的土地权利受《民事和政治权利国际公约》（International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights）保护，而德国是签约国之一。


Are we to believe that landholders fare better with Chinese or Saudi investors?	我们可以指望当地地主从中国或沙特投资者手中获得更好的补偿吗？


The Rise of the Food Barons	食品大亨的崛起


BERLIN – The industrial-agriculture sector has long faced criticism for practices that contribute to climate change, environmental destruction, and rural poverty.	柏林—长期以来，工业农业（industrial-agriculture sector）一直被人诟病加剧了气候变化、环境破坏和农村贫困。


And yet the sector has taken virtually no steps to improve quality and sustainability, or to promote social justice.	但给行业几乎没有采取任何措施改善质量和可持续性，或促进社会公平。


This is not surprising.	这不足为奇，全世界有超过5.


Although there are more than 570 million farmers and seven billion consumers worldwide, just a handful of companies control the global industrial-agriculture value chain – from field to shop counter.	7亿农民和七十亿消费者，但从田间到店头，全球工业农业的价值链控制在一小撮公司手中。


Given the high profits and vast political power of these companies, changes to the status quo are not in their interest.	这些公司利润丰厚，炙手可热，改变现状可不符合它们的利益。


Moreover, market concentration in the agriculture sector is on the rise, owing to increased demand for the agricultural raw materials needed in food, animal feed, and energy production.	此外，拜粮食、饲料和能源生产的农业原材料需求增长所赐，农业的市场集中度也在升高。


As the middle class in southern countries has grown, its members’ consumption and nutritional habits have changed, boosting global demand for processed foods – and setting off a scramble for market power among multinational agricultural, chemical, and food corporations.	随着南方国家中产阶级的崛起，他们的消费和营养习惯也发生了改变，从而刺激了对加工食品的需求，也掀起了一场跨国农业、化工和食品公司争夺市场大权的战争。


The biggest players in these sectors have been buying out their smaller competitors for years.	多年来，这些行业中的最大牌公司一直在收购规模较小的竞争对手。


But now they are also buying out one another, often with financing provided by investors from completely different sectors.	但如今，它们同时也在互相收购，融资常常来自完全不同行业的投资者。


Consider the seed and agrochemical sector, where Bayer, the second-largest pesticide producer in the world, is in the process of acquiring Monsanto, the largest seed producer, for €66 billion ($74 billion).	以种子和农化行业为例，全球第二大杀虫剂生产商拜耳公司（Bayer）正在收购第一大种子生产商孟山都公司（Monsanto），作价660欧元。


If the United States and the European Union approve the deal, as seems likely, just three conglomerates – Bayer-Monsanto, Dow-DuPont and ChemChina-Syngenta – will control over 60% of the global seed and agrochemical market.	如果美国和欧盟批准这笔交易（目前看来很有可能），那么三家企业集团——拜耳-孟山都、陶氏-杜邦（Dow-DuPont）和中化-先正达（ChemChina-Syngenta）将控制全球60%以上的种子和农化市场。


“Baysanto” alone would be the proprietor of almost every genetically modified plant on the planet.	光是“拜山都”一家，就几乎囊括了全世界所有的转基因作物。


With other large mergers also being announced, the global agriculture market at the end of 2017 could look very different than it did at the beginning.	随着其他大型收购案的不断宣布，到2017年底，全球农业市场将与年初发生天翻地覆的变化。


Each of the three major conglomerates will be closer to its goal of achieving domination of the seed and pesticide markets – at which point they will be able to dictate food products, prices, and quality worldwide.	三大企业集团都将更加接近它们实现主宰种子和杀虫剂市场的目标——到时候它们就可以随心所欲地控制全球食品的生产、价格和质量了。


The agrotechnical sector is experiencing some of the same changes as the seed sector.	农业技术行业正在经历与种子行业类似的变化。


The five largest corporations account for 65% of the market, with Deere & Company, the owner of the John Deere brand, in the lead.	五家最大的公司控制了65%的市场，约翰迪尔（John Deere）商标所有人迪尔公司在这方面一马当先。


In 2015, Deere & Company reported $29 billion in sales, surpassing the $25 billion that Monsanto and Bayer made selling seeds and pesticides.	2015年，迪尔公司披露的销售额为290亿美元，超过了卖种子和杀虫剂的孟山都和拜耳的250亿美元销售额。


The most promising new opportunity for food corporations today lies in the digitization of agriculture.	如今，食品公司最憧憬的新机会在于农业数字化。 农业数字化过程仍处于初级阶段，但正在起势，最终将涵盖所有产品领域。


This process is still in its early stages, but it is gathering momentum, and eventually it will cover all areas of production.	过不了多久，无人机全面接管喷洒杀虫剂的任务； 牲畜将配备传感器追踪产奶量、运动轨迹和饲料配给；


Soon enough, drones will take over the task of spraying pesticides; livestock will be equipped with sensors to track milk quantities, movement patterns, and feed rations; tractors will be controlled by GPS; and app-controlled sowing machines will assess soil quality to determine the optimal distance between rows and plants.	拖拉机将通过全球定位系统控制； 而通过手机应用控制的播种机将评估土壤质量决定作物的最优间距。


To maximize the benefits of these new technologies, the companies that already dominate the value chain have begun cooperating with one another.	为了实现新技术效益最大化，已经占据价值链主导地位的公司早已开始彼此合作。


The John Deeres and Monsantos have now joined forces.	约翰迪尔们和孟山都们已经结成了联盟。


The confluence of soil and weather “big data,” new agrotechnologies, genetically modified seeds, and new developments in agrochemistry will help these companies save money, protect natural resources, and maximize crop yields worldwide.	土壤和天气“大数据”的聚合、新农业技术、转基因种子和农化新发展趋势将帮助这些公司节省成本、保护自然资源、实现全球作物收成最大化。


But while this possible future bodes well for some of the world’s largest companies, it leaves the environmental and social problems associated with industrialized agriculture unsolved.	但这样的未来可能固然有利于少数世界性大公司，并不能解决工业化农业遗留下来的相关环境和社会问题。


Most farmers, particularly in the global South, will never be able to afford expensive digital-age machinery.	大部分农民，特别是全球南方地区的农民，永远买不起昂贵的数字时代机器。


The maxim “grow or go” will be replaced with “digitize or disappear.”	“要么成长，要么离开”的格言将变成“要么数字化，要么消失”。


The ETC Group, an American non-governmental organization, has already outlined a future scenario in which the major agrotechnology corporations move upstream and absorb the seed and pesticide producers.	在美国非政府组织ETC集团所列出的未来情景中，农业技术大公司将向上游移动，吸收种子和杀虫剂生产商。


At that point, just a few companies will determine everything that we eat.	到那时，少数几家公司就能决定我们吃的一切。


Indeed, the same market-concentration problem applies to other links in the value chain, such as agricultural traders and supermarkets.	事实上，相同的市场集中问题在价值链的其他环节也存在，比如农业贸易商和超级市场。


And even though food processing is not yet consolidated on a global scale, it is still dominated at the regional level by companies such as Unilever, Danone, Mondelez, and Nestlé.	而尽管食品加工尚未出现全球规模的整合，但在地区层面上，联合利华、达能、蒙德利兹（Mondelez）和雀巢的公司已经实现了主宰。


These companies make money when fresh or semi-processed food is replaced by highly processed convenience foods such as frozen pizza, canned soup, and ready-made meals.	随着新鲜和半加工食品被速冻披萨、汤罐头和即食肉制品等深加工食品所取代，这些公司也赚了个盆满钵满。


While lucrative, this business model is closely linked to obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases.	尽管利润丰厚，但这一商业模式很容易导致肥胖、糖尿病和其他慢性疾病。


Worse, food corporations are also profiting from the proliferation of illnesses for which they are partly responsible, by marketing “healthy” processed foods enriched with protein, vitamins, probiotics, and omega-3 fatty acids.	更糟糕的是，食品公司也因为它们负有部分责任的疾病扩散中而获利，因为它们推广的“健康”加工食品中富含蛋白质、维生素、益生菌欧米茄-3脂肪酸。


Meanwhile, corporations are amassing market power at the expense of those at the bottom of the value chain: farmers and workers.	与此同时，这些公司赢得市场权力以价值链底层——农民和工人的牺牲为代价。


International Labor Organization standards guarantee all workers the right to organize, and they prohibit forced and child labor and proscribe race and gender discrimination.	国际劳工组织规则保障所有工人都有组织工会的权利，也禁止强迫劳动和童工以及种族和性别歧视。


But labor-law violations have become the norm, because efforts to enforce ILO rules are often quashed, while trade union members are routinely threatened, fired, and even murdered.	但违反劳动法的情况司空见惯，因为国际劳工组织规则的执行力往往很弱，而工会成员常常受到威胁、解雇甚至谋杀。


In this hostile climate, minimum-wage, overtime-pay, and workplace-safety standards are openly neglected.	在如此不利的环境下，最低工资、加班费和工作场所安全标准被公然无视。


And women, in particular, are at a disadvantage, because they are paid less than their male counterparts and often must settle for seasonal or temporary jobs.	妇女尤其不利，因为她们的薪酬低于男性同事，从事的也常常是季节性或临时性工作。


Today, half of the world’s 800 million starving people are small farmers and workers connected to the agricultural sector.	如今，全世界8亿吃不饱饭的人中有一半是小农和农业相关工人。


Their lot will hardly improve if the few companies already dominating that sector become even more powerful.	如果极少数已经成为行业主宰的公司继续获得更大的权力，他们的境况将难以改善。


AIDS, NCDs, and the ABCs of Organizing	艾滋病、非传染性疾病和组织学的“ABC”


GENEVA – Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), like heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic lung disease, are responsible for 70% of all deaths.	日内瓦—非传染性疾病（NCD），如心脏病、中风、癌症、糖尿病和慢性肺病等，造成了全部死亡案例的70%。


There is incontrovertible evidence that tobacco use, inactivity, unhealthy diets, and excessive alcohol consumption increase the odds of dying prematurely from an NCD.	无可反驳的证据证明，吸烟、不运动、不健康饮食和饮酒过度会增加因NCD而过早死亡的风险。


And yet, despite widespread knowledge of the risks, global obesity goes largely unchecked, while tobacco and alcohol use continue to rise.	但尽管这些风险早已众所周知，全球肥胖率仍居高不下，而烟草和酒精消费量在不断增加。


It is against this backdrop that networks of NCD alliances met December 9-11 at the second Global NCD Alliance Forum, in the United Arab Emirates.	在这一背景下，NCD联盟网络于12月9—11日在阿联酋召开了第二届全球非传染性疾病联盟论坛。


As they search for solutions to bring NCDs under control, they should look for inspiration to the movement to fight AIDS.	在我们寻找控制NCD的方法的过程中，应该着眼于消灭艾滋病运动的经验。


People living with and affected by HIV continue to drive response efforts, and their unique form of mobilization has been instrumental to progress.	携带艾滋病毒并受其影响的人不断地推动着响应措施，而他们独特的动员形式也有助于进步。


While the battle is not over, AIDS activists know that it can be won.	尽管革命尚未成功，但艾滋病活跃分子知道胜利一定属于他们。


Similarly, a mobilized NCD movement can turn the tide against that epidemic.	类似地，动员起来的NCD运动能够改变潮流。


Yet, in 2015, Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet, described the NCD community as needing an “electric shock to its semi-comatose soul.”	但是，《柳叶刀》杂志编辑理查德·霍顿（Richard Horton）在2015年将说NCD界需要“给你他们的半昏迷的灵魂来一次电击。


He added: “But who has the courage to deliver it?”	”他还说，“但谁有兴趣来担当电击者？ ”


We believe there are lessons to be learned from AIDS activists.	我们相信，艾滋病活动家的很多经验可以借鉴。


As global attention focuses on NCD prevention, those seeking to control preventable illnesses should look to the “ABCs” of AIDS organizing for guidance.	随着NCD的防治获得全球关注，寻求控制可预防疾病的人应该借鉴艾滋病组织的“ABC”。


The first letter that the NCD community should consider is “A,” for activism.	NCD界需要考虑的第一点是A，即活动（activism）。


Anyone over 40 will recall images of AIDS activists performing “die-ins” at scientific meetings around the world.	40岁以上的人都能想起艾滋病活跃分子在全球科学会议上的“装死示威”。


In the United States, AIDS activists took to the streets, even shutting down the Food and Drug Administration’s headquarters for a day in October 1988.	在美国，艾滋病活跃分子走上街头，甚至在1988年10月的某日令食品和药品监督局总部关门 。


Globally, activists lobbied governments and pharmaceutical companies to make medicines more affordable.	全球而言，活跃分子游说政府和制药公司降低药品价格。


This activism continues, and should serve as a model for action on NCDs.	这些活动还在继续，并理应成为NCD活动的榜样。


Next, the NCD community must adopt a bolder approach to budgets – the “B” of the AIDS movement’s strategy.	其次，NCD界必须果断推进制定预算（budget），即艾滋病运动战略中的B。


Civic organizing and grassroots activism may fuel early energies, but organizing and sustaining a broad-based coalition takes money.	公民组织和草根活动或许能够注入早期能量，但组织和维持广大联盟需要资金。


The AIDS movement was clear about this from the beginning, and lobbied for resources to support its advocacy and accountability effectively.	艾滋病运动从一开始就非常明确这一点，并有效地游说资源以支持其主张和责任。


“C” is for coalitions: the AIDS movement was quick to understand that progress would come only with diverse support.	C则是联盟（coalition）：艾滋病运动很快就认识到，只有获得了多样化的支持，才能取得进步。


Activists established links between people living with HIV and those with other concerns, such as women’s rights, intellectual property, nutrition, and housing.	活跃分子建立起艾滋病携带者和其他问题关注者（如女权、知识产权、营养和住房等）之间的联系。


Issue-specific coalitions and campaigns work best when they bring together government insiders and outsiders, to combine perspectives and expertise.	不同问题的联盟和运动，如果能够将政府内部人士和外部人士联合起来，形成观点和专业知识的合力，则能够起到最大的效果。


The AIDS movement also understood that a holistic response to the epidemic was essential.	艾滋病运动还认识到，要让支持得到推广，对于这种传染病必须采取整体响应措施。


Thus, “D,” the underlying determinants of health, was to draw attention to the interconnectivity of the drivers of challenge.	因此，D——成功的决定因素（determinant）——是要吸引对挑战的联动性的关注。


For example, lobbying education leaders to keep girls in school longer has contributed to providing young people with the knowledge and agency to make smart decisions about when and with whom to negotiate safe sex.	比如，游说教育领袖让女孩读更长时间的书，从而帮助年轻人们获得知识以做出关于何时和和谁谈论安全性行为的明智的决定。


Similarly, links were forged between groups working on poverty, gender, and nutrition – factors that played a role in driving the AIDS crisis.	类似地，致力于贫困、性别和营养问题——这些都是助推艾滋病危机的因素——的相关组织之间也形成了联系。


NCDs are no less isolated in their causality, and similarly require a multi-sector approach to prevention.	NCD的致病原因不是孤立的，同样也要求多管齐下的预防之道。


Engagement – “E” – was what helped the AIDS movement become so influential.	参与（engagement）——E——给了艾滋病运动巨大的影响力。


By borrowing from the playbook of the disability rights movement, which championed the mantra “Nothing About Us Without Us,” AIDS advocates demanded representation on the bodies established to address the disease.	艾滋病运动支持者借鉴了残疾人权利运动的策略，打出了“我们的事，我们都得参与”的口号，要求在解决疾病问题的机构中拥有自己的代表。


For example, UNAIDS remains the only United Nations agency with seats on its board for representatives from civil society.	比如，联合国艾滋病规划署仍然是唯一一个理事会中有来自公民社会代表的联合国机构。


This norm is so powerfully embedded in the AIDS movement that it would be almost unthinkable for an AIDS meeting to take place without representation from the community.	这一范式被强力嵌入在艾滋病运动中，没有艾滋病携带者代表参与的艾滋病会议几乎是不可想象的。


Disease prevention movements must also develop persuasive narratives, and “F” – framing the issue – was essential to the AIDS community’s effort to gain support from political leaders.	疾病预防运动还必须发展出有说服力的叙事，而F——界定（frame）问题——是艾滋病界赢得政治领导人支持的关键。


In particular, access to AIDS treatment was framed as a matter of economic justice.	特别是，获得艾滋病治疗被界定为一个经济正义的问题。


Framing the narrative this way led to a dramatic reduction in the price of medicines, so much so that more than half of people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries are in treatment.	如此界定叙事令药品价格大幅下降，让一大半中低收入国家的艾滋病携带者能够获得治疗。


An equally important framing issue for AIDS, which is highly relevant to the NCDs movement, is that of responsibility.	一个对艾滋病——对NCD运动也是如此——同样重要的界定问题是责任。


The AIDS community worked hard to shift the focus from blaming individuals’ lifestyle choices to putting the onus on the state for providing health care and removing legal discrimination.	艾滋病界努力让人们的关注焦点从谴责个人生活方式选择转移到要求国家担负提供医疗和消除法律歧视上。


In the AIDS debate, gender – our movement’s “G” – was a significant focal point.	在艾滋病争论中，性别（gender）——即我们的运动中的G——是一个重要焦点。


HIV was initially seen as a “gay disease,” and gender identity was embedded in the DNA of the AIDS movement early on.	艾滋病一开始被视为“同性恋病”，而性别身份从一开始就烙印在了艾滋病运动的DNA中。


Gender dimensions of NCDs are no less important; one only has to consider how alcohol and tobacco are marketed to understand that.	NCD的性别问题也同样重要； 只要想想酒精和烟草的营销手段便可了解这一点。


Gender, therefore, must become a focus of NCDs prevention efforts.	因此，性别应该成为NCD预防的重点。


Finally, “H” – human rights – was the bedrock of the AIDS response.	最后，H——人权（human right）——是艾滋病响应机制的基石。


Campaigns were launched against discrimination in workplaces, schools, and health centers.	艾滋病活跃分子发动了反对职场、校园和医院的歧视的运动。


Strategic litigation helped ensure equality under the law.	策略性诉讼帮助确保了法律面前人人平等。


The AIDS movement refused to hold major conferences in countries with punitive laws against people living with HIV.	艾滋病运动拒绝在对携带艾滋病毒的人实施惩罚性法律的国家召开大会。


The NCD movement could take a similar tack by, for example, refusing to meet in countries that fail to restrict advertising of junk food to children.	NCD运动也应该采取同样的策略，比如拒绝在不限制面向儿童的垃圾食品广告的国家召开大会。


The list of AIDS lessons could continue throughout the alphabet, but ending with “H” is apt, given that human rights drove the response, and should drive the response to NCDs.	艾滋病运动的教训可以写全整个字母表，但在H结尾比较合适，因为人权推动了艾滋病响应机制，也应该推动NCD响应机制。


Poverty, exclusion, and social and economic marginalization put people at higher risk for HIV.	贫困、排斥以及社会和经济边缘化让人们更容易感染艾滋病毒。


It is no different for NCDs.	NCD也是如此。


The early mainstream reaction to the AIDS epidemic was to ask, “Why don’t those people make better choices?”	人们对艾滋病的早期主流反应是问“为什么那些人没有做出更好的选择？


The AIDS movement made clear that that was the wrong question.	”艾滋病运动证明了这是一个错误的问题。


Today, with 70% of the planet at risk of premature death from preventable illnesses, “those people” are many of us.	今天，70%的地球人面临因为可预防疾病而过早死亡的风险，“那些人”就是我们自己。


The NCD and AIDS communities can learn from one another.	NCD和艾滋病界可以互相学习。


We are a stronger movement when we join forces.	当我们加入这股力量之中，就形成了一个更加强大的运动。


The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of UNAIDS.	本文不代表联合国艾滋病规划署观点。


Toward a More Reflective Planet	增加地球反射性


CAMBRIDGE – The last time the atmosphere held as much carbon dioxide as it does today was about three million years ago – a time when sea levels were 10-30 meters higher than they are now.	坎布里奇—大气层上一次含二氧化碳量与今天一样多大约出现在三百万年前——当时的海平面比今天高10—30米。


Climate models have long struggled to duplicate those large fluctuations in sea levels – until now.	长期以来，气候模型一直努力复制着海平面的大幅波动——直至目前。


Indeed, for the first time, a high-quality model of Antarctic ice and climate has been able to simulate these large swings.	事实上，历史上第一次，一个高质量的南极冰和气候模型能够模拟这些大波动。


That is smart science, but it brings devastating news.	这是智能科学，但它带来的是灾难性的消息。


The new model shows that melting in Antarctica alone could increase global sea levels by as much as one meter (3.2 feet) by the end of this century – well above prior estimates.	新模型显示，光是南极融化就可以让全球海平面在本世纪末上升足足一米——远高于先前的估计。


Worse, it suggests that even extraordinary success at cutting emissions would not save the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, locking in eventual sea-level increases of more than five meters.	更糟糕的是，模型表明，即使减排工作取得卓越的成功，也无法拯救西南极洲冰原，最终的海平面上升幅度将超过五米。


As little as one meter could put at risk entire cities, from Miami to Mumbai, and cause enormous economic disruption.	海平面升高区区一米就可以让从迈阿密到孟买面临全城被淹的危险，并导致巨大的经济破坏。


We need to turn down the heat – and fast.	我们需要降低温度——并且速度要快。


To this end, albedo modification – a kind of geoengineering intended to cool the planet by increasing the reflectivity of the earth’s atmosphere – holds tremendous promise.	在这方面，改变反射率——一种旨在通过增加地球大气层反射性的地理工程——大有可为。


Injecting synthetic aerosols that reflect sunlight into the stratosphere, for example, could help counter the warming caused by greenhouse gases.	比如，注入可将太阳光反射进入平流层的人工气溶胶有助于遏制温室气体带来的变暖。


The mechanism is similar to wearing a white shirt in the summer: white reflects sunlight and cools what is underneath, whereas darker colors absorb sunlight and heat.	其中的机理类似于夏天穿白衬衫：白色反射太阳光，让下面的东西更凉爽； 而深色吸收太阳光并升温。


To be sure, even in the best-case scenario, solar geoengineering alone could not stabilize the world’s climate.	诚然，即使在最佳情景中，仅仅依靠太阳能地理工程也无法稳定世界气候。


For that, we must both stop pumping carbon pollution into the atmosphere and learn how to remove what is already there.	对此，我们必须一面停止向大气层排放碳污染，一面学会如何去除已经存在于大气层中的碳。


That is why emissions cuts should receive the lion’s share of resources devoted to combating climate change.	这便是应该将用于遏制气候变化的资源大部分用于减排的原因。


But, as the recent study shows, emissions cuts alone cannot save the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and prevent a drastic sea-level rise.	但是，最新研究表明光是减排无法拯救西南极洲冰原和防止海平面灾难性上升。


If they are pursued in conjunction with moderate albedo modification, however, there is a chance of halting rising temperatures, helping to keep the world under 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the more ambitious target agreed at the Paris climate talks last December.	但是，如果在减排的同时略微改变反射率，就有机会停止气温上升，有助于将世界奇闻保持在前工业化水平以上1. 5℃以内，亦即去年12月巴黎气候谈判上所达成的更激进的目标。


(It should be noted that, given carbon-cycle feedbacks, such as the thawing of permafrost, there is a chance that the world would face a 1.5°C rise, even if emissions were eliminated today.)	（应该指出，考虑到碳循环反馈（如冻土解冻），即使今天就消灭排放，世界温度上升幅度仍可能达到1. 5℃。


Most of the world’s state-of-the-art climate models have explored albedo modification, and each of them has found that the process does have the potential to mitigate climate change.	如今，全世界大部分最新气候模型都探索了改变反射率的问题，并且都发现该过程确实有遏制气候变化的潜力。


Beyond limiting total warming, it can help to check the rise in peak temperatures, decreasing the risk of destructive heat waves.	除了限制升温总幅度，它还有助于遏制峰值温度的上升，降低破坏性热浪的风险。


And it seems to be particularly effective at reducing extreme rainfall, which holds profound implications for minimizing flood damage.	并且它在减少极端降雨方面似乎特别有效，这极有利于洪水危害最小化。


Albedo modification remains uncertain and risky, owing partly to a dearth of organized research into the subject.	改变反射率仍充满不确定性和风险性，部分是因为这方面的有组织研究太少。


And, in fact, albedo modification would undoubtedly make some things worse.	而事实上，改变反射率毫无疑问会让某些东西变得更糟。


But there is not a single climate model run that shows that a moderate intervention would make any region worse off overall.	但没有一个气候模型表明，略作干预会让任何地区总体恶化。


Moreover, the large potential upside, measured in trillions of dollars, contrasts with low direct costs – in the single-digit billions for full-scale deployment.	此外，巨大的潜在收益（高达亿万美元级别）与低廉的直接成本——全部部署也只需要几十亿美元——对比鲜明。


In fact, albedo modification is so cheap that direct costs will not be the deciding issue.	事实上，改变反射率非常廉价，其直接成本根本不会成为决定性问题。


Instead, it is a risk-risk trade-off – one that will require more research to assess.	相反，这是一个风险-风险权衡——需要更多的研究来进行评估。


Given the lack of knowledge, no sensible person would push for deploying albedo modification today.	考虑到这方面知识的不足，明智之士绝不会在今天部署改变反射率。


But it would make no sense to ignore its potential.	但绝不应该忽略它的潜力。


After all, no one would argue that we should abandon research on a promising cancer drug because it is unproven.	毕竟，没人会认为我们应该因为没有得到证实而放弃一种很有希望的癌症药物。


The US National Academy of Sciences first called attention to what it then described as “climate modification” in a 1983 report.	美国科学院（US National Academy of Sciences）首次关注该问题是在一份1983的报告中，当时将该问题称为“气候改造”。


It recommended careful research in 1992 and again in 2015.	1992年和2015年，美国科学院建议进行仔细研究。


Major environmental groups such as the Environmental Defense Fund and the Natural Resources Defense Council support careful, small-scale research.	主要环境组织，如环境保护基金（Environmental Defense Fund）和自然资源保护委员会（Natural Resources Defense Council），都支持仔细的小范围研究。


Yet no such program exists.	但这些项目并不存在。


One reason for this is concern about the diversion of resources from other approaches.	一个原因是担心其他方法的资源因此被分散。


And, of course, there are tradeoffs.	当然，也有权衡问题。


But the US, for example, has an annual climate science budget of around $3 billion.	但（比如）美国每年气候科学预算有30亿美元左右。


An exploratory solar geoengineering program, costing only a few tens of millions of dollars per year, is entirely feasible.	一个太阳能地理工程实验项目每年只需要花费几千万美元，是完全可行的。


A larger obstacle to progress is fear that more attention to geoengineering solutions would sap motivation to cut emissions.	阻碍进步的更大障碍是担心更多地关注地理工程解决方案不利于减排激励。


Maybe so, but it would be barking mad to take up smoking simply because an experimental cancer treatment showed some promise on a lab rat.	也许如此，但如果你仅仅因为一项实验性癌症治疗方法在小白鼠身上出现了令人欣喜的效果就开始抽烟，那你一定是疯了。


And, in fact, it is conceivable that a concerted effort to advance research on albedo modification could spur action to cut emissions, much like a graphic look at the side effects of chemotherapy prompts some to stop smoking.	而事实上，可以想象推进改变反射率的研究共同努力能够刺激减排行动，就像化疗副作用的照片促使一些人戒烟那样。


Whichever reaction prevails, the moral imperative to explore a technology that can protect the poorest and most vulnerable this century would seem to trump amorphous concerns that doing so could weaken the incentive to pursue solutions that would largely benefit future generations.	不管出现那种反应，探索能在本世纪保护最贫穷、最脆弱群体的技术的道德使命似乎要胜过关于这样做可能削弱探索能给子孙后代带来巨大好处的解决办法的激励的零散担忧。


China has initiated a limited research program on albedo modification.	中国已经启动了一项有限的改变反射率研究项目。


The US has not.	美国还没有。


Given that albedo modification is the kind of technology that necessitates an open, transparent, and international research effort – precisely the kind of effort in which the US excels – this is a serious failing.	改变反射率是开放、透明和国际化的研究措施——这正是美国所擅长的措施——的必不可少的技术，因此，这是严重的失败。


The US government should take the lead now in researching albedo modification.	目前，美国政府应该领衔改变反射率研究。


Even if the result was that albedo modification does not work, the dividends of such research would be enormous, owing to the added pressure to cut emissions.	即使结果表明改变反射率没有用，这些研究所产生的红利也将是巨大的，因为这样能给减排带来更多压力。


And if it turned out to be successful, the social, environmental, and economic returns would be tremendous.	而如果成功，其社会、环境和经济回报将不可限量。


The US Is Exporting Obesity	输出肥胖的美国


CAMBRIDGE – As US President Donald Trump’s administration throws sharp elbows in trade negotiations and systematically rescinds regulations introduced by President Barack Obama, one casualty is likely to be efforts to fight the global obesity epidemic.	发自剑桥——当美国总统特朗普的政府在贸易谈判中上窜下跳，并有计划地撤销奥巴马总统所引入的条例时，其中一个深受其害的事务很可能是抗击全球肥胖症流行现象的工作。


Left unchecked, rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades.	如果不加控制，肥胖率的迅速上升可能会减缓甚至扭转过去几十年来世界大部分地区医疗卫生水平以及预期寿命的巨大进步。


And by forcing its food culture on countries like Mexico and Canada, the United States is making the problem worse.	而通过将其饮食文化强加给墨西哥和加拿大等国，美国正在令问题变得更加严重。


One of the paradoxes of modern global capitalism is that whereas more than 800 million people in the world do not have enough to eat, an estimated 700 million people (including 100 million children) are obese.	现代全球资本主义的悖论之一就是，一方面世界上有超过8亿人食不果腹，另一方面却有大概7亿人（包括1亿儿童）陷入肥胖。


Of course, the two are not necessarily directly related. A considerable proportion of world hunger occurs in countries suffering from domestic strife or severe government dysfunction.	当然这两者不一定直接相关，因为世界上有相当比例的饥饿发生在遭受内乱或政府严重失能的国家。


The obesity epidemic, however, has a much broader footprint, affecting advanced economies and most emerging markets.	与此同时肥胖症的流行范围则更广，遍及发达经济体和大多数新兴市场。


Although there is some connection between obesity and poverty within countries, it is notable that obesity rates in rich countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada are among the world’s highest.	尽管一些国家内部的肥胖与贫困之间存在某种联系，但值得注意的是，美国，英国和加拿大等富裕国家的肥胖率是全世界最高的。


Recently, the US Centers for Disease Control estimated that a stunning 40% of all Americans are obese (defined as having a body mass index of 30 or higher), a figure that includes 20.6% of adolescents (12-19 years old).	美国疾病控制中心最近发布了一份报告，估算美国有40％的人肥胖（定义为身体质量指数BMI为30或更高），其中包括20. 6％的12~19岁青少年。


According to the CDC, the average weight of an American woman today is greater than the average weight of an American man in 1960 (166 pounds, or 75 kilos).	而据美国疾病控制与预防中心称，当今美国女性的平均体重大于1960年美国男性的平均体重（166磅/75公斤）。


Back in 1960, the average weight of an American woman was 140 pounds, while the average weight of an American man today is 195 pounds.	在1960年美国女性的平均体重是140磅/63. 5公斤，而今天美国男性的平均体重是195磅/88.


(Over the same period, the average height of Americans increased by only one inch, or 2.5 centimeters.)	4公斤（而同期美国人的平均身高只增加了1英寸，即2. 5厘米）。


This same dynamic is playing out worldwide, with obesity rates soaring in Europe, Latin America, and even in China.	同样的动态也存在于世界范围内，欧洲，拉丁美洲乃至中国的肥胖率都在上升。


Although it is difficult to gauge the long-run health consequences, there is abundant evidence that obesity contributes significantly to higher rates of type II diabetes, heart attacks, and certain types of cancer.	虽然难以衡量长期的健康后果，但是有充分的证据表明肥胖对II型糖尿病，心脏病和某些类型癌症的发生率有着较高的影响。


The health costs are staggering, estimated to be close to $200 billion per year in the US alone.	因此产生的医疗费用也极为惊人，估计每年接近2000亿美元。


And with rising childhood obesity rates worldwide portending significantly greater health problems in the future adult population, the costs are likely to rise considerably.	随着儿童肥胖率在世界范围内不断上升，从而预示着未来成年人群的健康问题显着增加，医疗成本还有机会大幅走高。


The causes of obesity are manifold and complex.	肥胖的成因是多方面且和复杂的。


Nevertheless, a growing body of evidence suggests that a culture emphasizing processed food and a generally sedentary lifestyle lies at the center of the problem.	然而越来越多的证据表明，注重加工食品和普遍久坐生活方式的文化是问题的核心。


In emerging markets, rapid urbanization is another important factor, as well as a desire to emulate Western lifestyles.	而在新兴市场国家快速城市化则是另一个重要因素，此外还有模仿西方生活方式的意愿。


Many governments have launched initiatives to improve nutrition education.	许多政府已经启动了一些改善营养膳食教育的措施。


Unfortunately, industry advertising typically dwarfs these efforts, as do US trade lobbyists’ own efforts to push processed and fast food on the rest of the world.	但不幸的是，与美国贸易游说者向世界其他地区推广加工和快餐食品的努力一样，行业广告通常也会让这些努力大打折扣。


It is hard to ignore the fact that Mexico’s adult obesity rate has soared since the adoption in 1993 of the North American Free Trade Agreement.	自从1993年签署《北美自由贸易协定》以来墨西哥的成人肥胖率飙升，这是个难以忽略的事实。


While there are many causes, post-NAFTA direct foreign investment in the processed food industry and a surge in advertising are important contributors.	而协定生效后该国加工食品行业引入的直接国外投资以及广告的激增是造成这种情况的重要因素。


Mexican consumption of sugary beverages nearly tripled between 1993 and 2014, and a new tax on sugary drinks has muted demand only slightly since then.	墨西哥在含糖饮料方面的消费量在1993~2014年间几乎增长了两倍，而自那以后的一项针对含糖饮料的新税收仅仅令需求量略有下降。


The other NAFTA partner, Canada, has similarly experienced a rise in obesity, partly because US imports have led to a sharp decline in the price of fructose.	另一个《北美自由贸易协定》合作伙伴——加拿大——同样也经历了肥胖率上升的状况，部分原因是来自美国的出口导致果糖价格急剧下跌。


It is unfortunate that government regulators have been so slow to try to reverse these trends by, for example, helping to educate the public on the science of nutrition.	不幸的是，政府监管机构试图扭转这些趋势（例如向公众传播营养科学）的步伐太过缓慢。


And, for too long, most government anti-obesity education has focused on mechanically regulating calorie intake, without taking into account that different foods have dramatically different effects on appetite (as David Ludwig, a professor at Harvard Medical School, emphasizes in his excellent new book Always Hungry).	而且，长期以来，大多数政府反肥胖教育的重点都集中在刻板地调节卡路里摄入量，而没有考虑不同食物对食欲的显著差异性影响（正如哈佛大学医学院教授大卫·路德维格（David Ludwig）在他的优秀新著《永远饥饿》中指出的那样）。


Skeptics may point out that nutrition guidelines always seem to be morphing, with last year’s sin food becoming this year’s superfood, and vice versa.	怀疑论者可能会指出，营养指南似乎总是在变化，去年的罪恶食品经常摇身一变成了今年的超级食品，反之亦然。


Though there is some truth to this, the fact is that nutrition research has made significant progress in recent decades.	这有点道理，但事实是近几十年来营养学研究已经取得了重大进展。


The government has other tools at its disposal, besides education, for affecting people’s eating habits.	除教育之外，政府还可以动用其他工具来影响人们的饮食习惯。


They can and should place greater restrictions on advertising to children, as the UK, France, and several other countries have done; obesity in early years can lead to lifelong problems.	它们可以且应该像英国，法国和其他几个国家一样对儿童广告加大限制； 因为早年的肥胖会引发终生的问题。


Beyond that, Ludwig, Tufts University’s Dariush Mozaffarian, and I have proposed instituting a tax on processed food, much the same way that tobacco is taxed.	除此之外，大卫·路德维格，塔夫茨大学的达瑞许·莫扎法里安（Dariush Mozaffarian）和笔者也提议对加工食品征税，就跟烟草税一样。


Proceeds from the tax could be used to subsidize healthier alternatives.	而收上来的钱可用于补贴更健康的替代食品。


It is perhaps fantasy to expect the current US administration to consider any kind of anti-obesity strategy while it is still busy dismantling Obama-era policies.	期待正忙于废止奥巴马时代政策的现任政府考虑采取任何形式的反肥胖战略或许只是幻想。


But that is all the more reason why countries entering new trade agreements with the US (for example, the post-Brexit UK, or post-NAFTA Canada) must be wary of any provisions that tie their hands in the war against obesity.	正因如此，那些即将与美国签订新贸易协议的国家（例如脱欧后的英国，或废除《北美自由贸易协定》后的加拿大）更要特别警惕美国提出的任何可能束缚了反肥胖工作的条款。


Obamacare and Effective Government	奥巴马医保和高效政府


BERKELEY – When historians look back on the United States’ Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), President Barack Obama’s controversial 2010 health-care reform, we predict that they will not devote much attention to its regulations, its troubled insurance exchanges, or its website’s flawed launch.	伯克利—如果有历史学家回顾2010年奥巴马总统颇有争议的医疗改革——美国患者保护和平价医疗法（Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act，ACA），我们预测他们不会将注意力花在它的规则、它麻烦的保险交易以及它网站的漏洞上。


Instead, we think that they will focus on how “Obamacare” encouraged a wave of innovation that gradually tamed the spiraling costs of a dysfunctional system, even as millions of previously excluded Americans gained access to health insurance.	相反，我们认为历史学家会将注意力集中在“奥巴马医保”如何鼓励了逐渐控制一个功能失调的系统的不断上升的成本的创新上，即使它让数百万此前被排除在外的美国人也获得了医疗保险。


Innovation is probably the least discussed aspect of health-care reform.	创新也许是医疗改革中被讨论最少的话题。


Yet it is crucial to “bending” the sector’s cost curve, because it enables the delivery of quality health care in cost-effective ways.	但它是“弯曲”医疗成本曲线的关键，因为它能够让高品质医疗以高性价比的方式提供。


Obamacare has provided powerful new incentives for such innovation.	奥巴马医保为这类创新提供了有力的新激励。


From 1980 to 2010, US health-care spending grew almost twice as fast as the economy, rising from 9.2% to 17.4% of GDP.	1980—2010年，美国医疗支出速度几乎是经济增长的两倍，占GDP之比从9. 2%上升至17.


While many factors contributed to this surge, most experts agree that the single most important cause was a fee-for-service system that rewarded health-care providers for billing as many services as possible, rather than for keeping people healthy and treating their illnesses efficiently.	4%。 有许多因素促成了这一增幅，但大部分专家都同意，最重要的原因是按服务计费（fee-for-service）制度，该制度鼓励医疗服务提供者尽可能多地提供收费服务，而不是把维持人民健康和有效治疗疾病放在首位。


The ACA has been changing that, by establishing myriad new incentives to foster efficiency in health-care delivery – for example, by reducing costly and unnecessary hospital infections and readmissions, and by adopting electronic health records.	ACA改变了这一切，其办法是建立大量新激励提高医疗服务提供效率——比如降低昂贵且不必要的医院传染和再住院（readmissions）、采取电子病历等。


Most important, the ACA is providing incentives for the creation of “affordable care organizations,” “bundled payment systems,” and other delivery innovations to encourage better coordination of care, especially for patients with numerous chronic conditions.	最重要的是，ACA为建立“平价治疗组织”、“捆绑支付系统”和其他医疗服务提供创新提供了激励，从而鼓励了更好的治疗合作，特别是对存在多种慢性病的病患而言。


Such patients are among the 10% who account for an estimated 64% of overall health care costs.	这些病患占10%，但付出了约64%的总医疗成本。


Around the US, providers, insurers, non-profits, and local governments are responding to the ACA’s incentives.	放眼美国，提供商、保险商、非营利组织和地方政府都在响应ACA的激励。