Indeed, Yomiuri’s report may well have helped convince Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to go to China immediately after being elected in to seek better bilateral relations.	”事实上，也许正是《读卖新闻》的报道，日本新任首相安倍晋三在当选后马上去了中国以寻求改善双边关系。


China’s leaders seem to have taken note of this moment of Japanese remorse.	中国领导人似乎注意到了日本悔恨的表现。


This implies a ray of hope for a bilateral relationship – the most important in Asia – that over the past two decades has been battered by Japan’s reluctance to face its past, which has become a lightning rod for over-heated nationalist sentiment on both sides.	这使人们对于这一亚洲最重要的双边关系看到了一丝曙光，过去二十年间这一关系因为日本拒绝面对它的过去而遭到了严重损害，并且成了双方头脑发热的民族主义者情感发泄的避雷针。


But does the Yomiuri study go far enough?	然而《读卖新闻》的研究已经足够深入了吗？


While it assigns responsibility to Japan for WWII, and even unflinchingly names the political and military leaders who bear responsibility, one can still detect a whiff of reluctance in its failure to fully describe some of Japan’s war-time actions.	尽管它认为日本应该为二战负责，并且甚至不留情面地点出了应该承担责任的政治和军事领导人的姓名，但是人们还是可以从它没有完整描述日本在战争期间的某些表现而嗅出一丝内心里并不情愿承担责任的感觉。


For example, the horrors of the Nanjing Massacre in 1937, when Japanese soldiers killed 45,000-250,000 Chinese – many of whom were civilians – are given little more than a brief mention.	比如说，1937年南京大屠杀的恐怖，当时日本军人杀害了4万5千到25万之间的中国人，其中很多是平民，只是被很简单地提了一下。


But it would be a pity if China’s leaders did not endorse this acknowledgement of Japanese guilt as a manifestation of Japan’s willingness to repent.	但是如果中国领导人不认同这一对于日本罪行的认识是日本人愿意表示悔恨的一种表现那会令人感到非常遗憾。


The damaged bilateral relationship has only made China’s desire for a “peaceful rise” more uncertain.	遭到破坏的双边关系只是使中国想要“和平崛起”的欲望变得更加让人捉摸不定。


At the same time, it has left Japan’s long sought transcendence of its war guilt and quasi-pariah status incomplete.	同时，这会使日本无法达成其长期以来所寻求的超越其战争罪行和类似于被遗弃的地位的目标。


Watanabe and Yomiuri Shimbun have provided a rare opportunity that should be seized for the greater good of China and Japan and the world.	渡部和《读卖新闻》提供了一个很少有的机会，为了中国、日本和全世界的更大利益，应该应该抓住这一良机。


Of course, it is always easier to export blame than to shoulder it.	当然，指责别人的罪行总是比承担罪行容易得多。


And, true, no Japanese prime minister has yet fallen to his knees in Nanjing the way Chancellor Willy Brandt did on the site of the Warsaw Ghetto, where he apologized for the crimes of Germany by saying, “No people can escape from their history.”	并且，确实也从来没有哪一位日本首相在南京下跪过，就像德国总理勃兰登在华沙的犹太人区所做的那样，他在那里为德国的罪行表示了道歉，“没有人能够逃脱历史，”他说道。


But that was in 1970, when memories of the war’s ravages were fresh.	但是那时是1970年，战争的创伤所留下的记忆依然还留在人们的脑海中。


Now, over half-a-century has elapsed.	从那时起已经过去了半个世纪的时间。


“If things are left as they are,” writes Watanabe, “a skewed perception of history – without knowledge of the horrors of the war – will be handed down to future generations.”	渡部写道：“如果情况还是像原来那样，歪曲历史的观点，认识不到战争所造成的恐怖，就会被传给下一代。


It would be an immensely encouraging sign of China’s growing maturity if its leaders used this moment to look beyond the bitter past toward a new future with Japan.	”如果中国领导人利用这一契机抛开痛苦的过去与日本共同面对一个崭新的未来，那会使人们确信中国已经真正走向成熟了。


Toward an Alliance of Hope	向希望同盟前进


WASHINGTON, DC – At World War II’s close in the Pacific, we Japanese, with feelings of deep remorse, embarked on the path of rebuilding and renewing our country.	华盛顿—随着二战结束于太平洋，我们日本人带着深深的忏悔之情踏上了重建和复兴国家之路。


Our predecessors’ actions brought great suffering to Asia’s peoples, and we must never avert our eyes from that.	我们的前辈的行为给亚洲各民族带来了巨大的伤害，我们决不能对此视而不见。


I uphold the views expressed by Japan’s previous prime ministers in this regard.	我同意日本诸任前首相所表达的这一观点。


Given this recognition and remorse, we Japanese have believed for decades that we must do all that we can to contribute to Asia’s development.	基于这一认识和忏悔，我们日本人几十年来都认为我们必须竭尽全力为亚洲的发展做出贡献。


We must spare no effort in working for the region’s peace and prosperity.	我们必须全力以赴致力于地区和平与繁荣。


I am proud of the path that we have taken, but we did not walk that path alone.	我为我们所选择的道路而自豪，但在这条路上，我们不孤独。


Seventy years ago, Japan had been reduced to ashes, and each and every month, citizens of the United States sent and brought gifts like milk for our children, warm sweaters, and even goats.	七十年前，日本被夷为平地，每个月，美国公民都会给我们的孩子们寄送或带来儿童牛奶、温暖的毛衣甚至山羊等礼物。


Yes, 2,036 American goats came to Japan in the years right after the war.	是的，战争结束后的一年里有2,306头美国山羊来到日本。


Former enemies had become close friends.	从前的敌人变成了亲密的朋友。


And it was Japan that benefited earliest from the postwar international system that the US fostered by opening up its own market and calling for a liberal world economy.	美国通过开放自身市场和号召建立自由的世界经济构建了战后国际体系，而日本是这一体系的最早受益者。


From the 1980s onward, we have seen the rise of the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, the ASEAN countries, and, before long, China – all taking the path of economic development enabled by the open world order created by the US.	20世纪80年代以来，我们看到了韩国、中国台湾、东盟国家以及不久前的中国的崛起——它们无不走在美国所创建的开放的世界秩序之路上。


Japan, to be sure, did not stand idly by; it poured in capital and technologies to support these countries’ growth.	平心而论，日本没有袖手旁观； 它投入资本和技术支持这些国家和地区的成长。


Both the US and Japan fostered prosperity – the seedbed for peace – in the region.	美国和日本都促进了地区繁荣——和平的基础。 如今。


Today, the US and Japan recognize that they must continue to take the lead in fostering a rules-based international economic order – fair, dynamic, and sustainable – within which all countries can flourish, free from the arbitrary intentions of any national government.	美国和日本认识到它们必须继续领导构建基于规则的国际经济秩序——公平、有活力、可持续的秩序——所有国家都可以在这个秩序中实现繁荣，免受任何国家政府的独断专行。


In the world’s great growth center, the Pacific market, we cannot overlook sweatshops or environmental burdens.	在世界最大的增长核心——太平洋市场中，我们决不可忽视血汗工厂和环境负担。


Nor can we simply allow free riders to weaken intellectual property.	我们也绝不能做事免费搭车者削弱知识产权。


Instead, we must spread and nurture our shared values: the rule of law, democracy, and freedom.	相反，我们必须推广和培养共同价值：法治、民主和自由。


That is exactly what the Trans-Pacific Partnership is all about.	这正是跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP）的初衷。


The TPP’s strategic value extends far beyond the economic benefits it promises.	TPP的战略价值远远超过了其所带来的经济利益。


It is also about turning an area that accounts for 40% of the world economy and one-third of global trade into a region of lasting peace and prosperity for our children and theirs.	它也是为了我们的子孙后代将占全球经济40%和全球贸易三分之一的地区转变成持久的和平与繁荣地区。


As for US-Japan negotiations, the goal is near.	对日美谈判来说，目标已近。


Let us bring the TPP to a successful conclusion through our joint leadership.	让我们通过我们的联合领导实现TPP的圆满成功。


I know how difficult this path has been.	我知道这条路有多艰难。


Twenty years ago, I myself opposed opening Japan’s agricultural market.	二十年前，我本人反对开放日本农业市场。


I even joined farmers’ representatives in a rally in front of Japan’s Diet.	我甚至加入农民代表在日本议会前示威抗议。


But Japan’s agriculture sector has declined over the last two decades.	但在过去二十年中，日本的农业部门不断衰退。


Our farmers’ average age has increased by ten years, to more than 66.	我们的农民的平均年龄增加了十岁，超过了66岁。


If our agriculture sector is to survive, we must follow through on sweeping reforms, including to our agricultural cooperatives, which have not changed in 60 years.	要想让我们的农业部门生存下去，就必须采取彻底改革，包括对60年来一成不变的日本农业合作社进行改革。


Change is coming to Japanese business, too.	日本商业也在迎来变化。


Corporate governance in Japan is now fully in line with global standards because we made it stronger.	如今，在我们的努力强化下，日本公司治理已经完全与全球标准看齐。


And I am spearheading regulatory overhauls in such sectors as medicine and energy as well.	而我正在领导医疗和能源部门也采取监管大改革。


Moreover, I am determined to do whatever it takes to reverse the decline in Japan’s labor force.	此外，我决心不惜一切代价改变日本劳动力规模下降的趋势。


We are changing some of our old habits; in particular, we are empowering women to become more actively engaged in all walks of life.	我们正在改变一些旧习； 特别是，我们赋予女性权益，使她们能够更加活跃地参与各行各业。


In short, Japan is in the midst of a far-reaching transition to a more open future.	简言之，日本正处于通向更开放社会的深远转型中。


We are determined to press ahead with the structural reforms needed to succeed.	我们决心实施成功所需要的结构性改革，奋勇向前。


But reform requires the continuation of the peace and security that is the bequest of US leadership.	但改革需要持续的和平与安全，而和平与安全正是美国领导的产物。


My grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, chose the path of democracy and alliance with the US when he was Prime Minister in the 1950s.	20世纪50年代，我的外祖父岸信介出任日本首相时选择了民主和与美国结盟的道路。


Together with the US and other like-minded democracies, we won the Cold War.	与美国和其他同道民主国家一起，我们赢得了冷战。


I intend to stick to that path; indeed, there is no alternative to it.	我准备坚持这条道路； 事实上，除此之外再无选择。


Our two countries need to make every effort to strengthen our ties.	我们两国需要竭尽全力加强我们的关系。


This is why I support America’s strategic “rebalancing” to enhance peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region.	因此，我支持美国强化亚太地区和平与安全的战略“再平衡”。


Japan will support this effort first, last, and throughout.	日本将至始至终全程支持这一政策。


Japan is doing so by deepening its strategic relations with Australia and India, and we are enhancing our cooperation with the ASEAN countries and the Republic of Korea.	日本正在通过深化其与澳大利亚和印度的关系朝着方面努力，此外我们还在加强与东盟国家和韩国的合作。


Adding these partners to the central pillar of the US-Japan alliance will strengthen stability throughout the region.	在美日同盟的核心支柱的基础上加入这些合作伙伴能够增强整个地区的稳定。


And now Japan will provide up to $2.8 billion dollars to help improve US bases on Guam, which will have even greater strategic significance in the future.	如今，日本将提供多达28亿美元帮助改善未来将具有更大的战略重要性的美国关岛基地。


Regarding Asia’s ongoing maritime disputes, let me underscore my government’s three principles.	在悬而未决的亚洲海洋纠纷问题上，我要强调我的政府的三条原则。


First, states must stake their territorial claims on the basis of international law.	首先，国家主张领土权利必须以国际法为基础。


Second, they must not use force or coercion to press their claims.	其次，我们决不能使用武力或强迫手段宣誓主权。


And, third, they must settle all disputes by peaceful means.	第三，我们必须以和平方式解决一切争端。


We must make the vast seas stretching from the Pacific to the Indian Oceans a zone of peace and freedom, where all adhere to the rule of law.	我们必须让从太平洋到印度洋的广袤海域成为和平与自由之地，所有国家都恪行法治。


For this reason, too, it is our responsibility to fortify the US-Japan alliance.	同样是出于这一原因，我们有责任强化美日同盟。


That is why we are working hard to enhance the legislative foundations of our security.	因此，我们努力加强我们的社会的立法基础。


These enhanced legislative foundations should make cooperation between the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces even stronger, and the alliance still more solid, providing credible deterrence in the service of peace in the region.	强化的立法基础能让美国军队与日本自卫队之间的合作更加强大，让美日同盟更加紧密，为地区和平提供可信的威慑力。


Once these legal changes – the most sweeping in our post-war history – are in place by this summer, Japan will be better able to provide a seamless response for all levels of crisis.	一旦这些法律变化——将是日本战后以来规模最大的法律变化——在今年夏天落实，日本将能更好地无缝响应各个层次的危机。


The new Defense Cooperation Guidelines between the US and Japan will serve the same purpose, and help secure peace in the region for years to come.	美国和日本之间的新防务合作指引（Defense Cooperation Guidelines）也将服务于同一个目的，并有助于保证未来多年的地区和平。


Finally, Japan is ever more willing to bear its global responsibilities.	最后，日本比以往更愿意承担全球责任。


In the early 1990s, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces removed mines in the Persian Gulf.	20世纪90年代初，日本自卫队在波斯湾参与排雷。


For ten years in the Indian Ocean, we supported US operations to stop the flow of terrorists and arms.	十年来，我们在印度洋支持美国打击恐怖分子和武装的行动。


In Cambodia, the Golan Heights, Iraq, Haiti, and South Sudan, members of our Self-Defense Forces provided humanitarian support and participated in peace-keeping operations.	在柬埔寨、戈兰高地、伊拉克、海地和南苏丹，自卫队提供人道主义支持并参与维和行动。


Some 50,000 service men and women have participated in those activities thus far.	到目前为止，已有50,000左右自卫队成员参与了这些行动。


Japan’s agenda is simple and straightforward: reform at home and proactive contributions to global peace based on the principle of international cooperation.	日本的日程简单明了：在国内进行改革，并为基于国际合作原则的全球和平做出积极贡献。


It is an agenda that promises to lead Japan – and Asia – into a more stable and prosperous future.	这一日程能够让日本——以及亚洲——走向更加稳定与繁荣的未来。


A Chinese Monroe Doctrine?	中国门罗主义？


NEW DELHI – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s upcoming visit to India will include his first meetings with India’s new government, including Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and, more important, Prime Minister Narendra Modi.	新德里—中国外交部长王毅即将访问印度，并与印度新政府成员做首次会面，包括外交部长斯瓦拉吉（Sushma Swaraj）和更重要的总理莫迪。


But the trip is about more than getting acquainted.	但王毅的印度之行意义并不在熟络关系。


The leaders of both countries will be taking one another’s measure, and their conclusions will determine how the relationship between the world’s two most populous countries evolves.	两国领导人将会交换彼此的措施，他们所结果将决定世界上人口最多的两个国家之间的关系走向。


In some ways, the bilateral relationship is already moving in a positive direction, especially on the economic front.	从某种程度上说，双边关系已经在朝积极方向发展，特别是在经济领域。


But, as trade imbalances favoring China become apparent, India is growing increasingly frustrated.	但是，随着贸易不平衡日益明显地向有利于中国的方向倾斜，印度也感到日益不满。


Wang, an establishment figure well versed in Indian affairs, will make every effort to downplay these imbalances and promote deeper ties.	王毅是熟悉印度事务的老牌政治家，他将竭尽全力淡化不平衡，促进深化联系。


A far more formidable challenge will be resolving the dispute over the countries’ Himalayan frontier – the world’s longest unsettled land border.	更严峻的挑战是解决两国在喜马拉雅山区的边境纠纷——这也是世界上最长的未定国界。


Indeed, “special representatives” from the two countries have already met 17 times to settle the issue, but have made precious little progress, not least because of Chinese concerns about the restive border provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang.	事实上，两国的“特别代表”已就该问题进行了17次会晤，但几无进展，原因就在于中国担心其桀骜难驯的西藏和新疆等边境省份的问题。


As if the conflict were not already complicated enough, China has adopted an increasingly assertive stance in the area, including several incursions into disputed territory.	让问题更加复杂的是，中国在该地区采取了日益独断强硬的立场，包括数次侵入争议领土。


For example, last year, Chinese troops established a temporary camp in Ladakh’s Depsang valley, leading to a high-stakes standoff with India.	比如，去年解放军在拉达克（Ladakh）的德普桑（Depsang）峡谷临时扎营，导致了与印度的紧张对峙。


As long as the “line of actual control” remains undefined, tensions will continue to escalate – raising serious risks for both countries.	只要“实际控制线”得不到明确，紧张局面就会继续爆发——给两国都带来严重风险。


Another major point of contention is China’s reflexive support for Pakistan’s efforts to destabilize Ladakh and Kashmir, buttressed by deepening military cooperation.	另一个主要争议点是中国对巴基斯坦试图动摇拉达克和克什米尔的反射性支持，支持的方式是深化军事合作。


This aspect of China’s foreign policy is puzzling, not only because it undermines relations with India, but also in view of Chinese fears of Islamist radicalism among the Xinjiang’s Uighurs.	中国外交政策的这一做法令人费解，因为这不但破坏了与印度的关系，也不利于中国治理新疆维吾尔族的伊斯兰极端主义。


All of this highlights a fundamental flaw in China’s external strategy: its efforts to use its increasingly powerful military to intimidate its neighbors come at the expense of its own long-term security.	所有这些都凸显出中国对外战略存在根本性漏洞：利用日益强大的军力裹挟邻邦的代价是威胁到其自身的长期安全。


Indeed, instead of trying to build a mutually beneficial relationship with its largest neighbor, China has sought to encircle India by asserting military control of surrounding territories.	事实上，中国没有试图与其最大邻国建立互利共赢的关系，反而寻求通过侵略性地军事控制周边领土对印度实施包围。


This so-called “string of pearls” strategy directly threatens India’s national-security interests, rendering the type of robust bilateral relationship that would benefit both countries next to impossible.	这一所谓的“珍珠链”（string of pearls）战略直接威胁到印度的国家安全利益，导致能让两国同时受益的文件双边关系几无可能。


Of course, China claims that its intentions toward India are peaceful.	当然，中国宣称其对印度的打算都是和平的。


For example, it contends that its efforts to establish bases in the Indian Ocean and bolster its blue-water navy are aimed at safeguarding the Malacca Straits, a maritime trade route that is perceived as a choke point for the Chinese economy.	比如，它说其在印度洋建立基地和加强远洋海军的做法是为了捍卫马六甲海峡。 马六甲海峡是一条海上贸易航路，被认为是中国经济的命脉点之一。


But actions speak louder than words – and the message that China’s behavior is sending is far from peaceful.	但行胜于言——中国的行为所现实的信号绝不是和平。


Indeed, Chinese leaders seem to be taking advantage of the opening provided by an overstretched United States to assert control over a broad expanse of Asia’s oceans.	事实上，中国领导人似乎在利用美国不堪重负所留下的缺口主张着大量亚洲海域的控制权。


To this end, China has created a vast Air Defense Identification Zone covering most of the East China Sea – including territories claimed and controlled by Japan and South Korea – where it has also declared disputed territories to be part of its own exclusive economic zone.	在这方面，中国建立了覆盖东海大部巨大的防空识别区，包括日本和韩国所主张和控制的地区； 还宣布争议领土为其专属经济区的一部分。


These unilateral moves resemble the announcement by the United States in 1823 of what became known as the Monroe Doctrine, which, among other things, placed Latin America within a strictly US sphere of influence.	这些单方面行动和1823年美国所宣布的政策类似，美国的这一政策日后被称为门罗主义（Monroe Doctrine），门罗主义与其他一系列政策一起，让拉丁美洲成为美国的禁脔。


At the just-concluded Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel called China’s actions “destabilizing.”	而在刚刚结束的新加坡香格里拉安全对话（Shangri-La Security Dialogue）上，美国国防部长哈格尔称中国的行动“破坏稳定”。


Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe echoed this sentiment, declaring that Japan will play a larger role in safeguarding regional security, including by providing patrol ships, training, and military surveillance equipment to countries engaged in territorial disputes with China.	日本首相安倍晋三也持有这一态度，声称日本将在捍卫地区安全方面扮演更重要的角色，包括为与中国存在领土纠纷的国家提供巡逻舰船、训练和军事监控设备。


The response from China was immediate and unambiguous.	对此，中国立刻给出了毫不含糊的汉英。


Wang Guanzhong, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, blasted Hagel and Abe for “corroborating and colluding…to provoke and challenge China.”	解放军副总参谋长王冠中反驳哈格尔和安倍“言之凿凿，一唱一和……挑衅和挑战中国。 ”


While Modi has not yet commented on the security challenge that China’s actions are creating, he will have to do so soon.	尽管莫迪尚未就中国的行为所造成的安全挑战做出评论，但他很快就必须对此有所��示。


In fact, Chinese President Xi Jinping practically insisted that India join the discussion when, in a speech in Shanghai last month, he said that “India, the world’s largest weapons-systems importer, must take very serious note” of mounting regional tensions.	事实上，中国国家主席习近平在上个月的上海讲话中说“印度是世界上最大的武器进口国，必须严重关注”地区紧张的积累，这番话无异于坚持印度参与对话。


But Modi will need to offer more than words to meet India’s national security interests.	但莫迪不但要说，还要做，这才能符合印度的国家安全利益。


Because India has just endured a decade of neglect by the previous Congress government, the new administration will have to act quickly and decisively to safeguard the country’s national-security.	在上任国大党政府的治理下，印度刚刚经历了忽视的十年，因此新政府必须迅速而果断地行动起来捍卫印度的国家安全。


This imperative is made all the more urgent by China’s decision to expand its defense budget by more than 12%, to $132 billion, in the next fiscal year, as well as its recently concluded 30-year energy deal with Russia, which has strategic implications for India.	而中国决定在下一个财年将国防预算增加12%以上，达到1,320亿美元，最近又宣布与俄罗斯签订了30年能源贸易协议，这些都对印度具有战略影响，也让新政府的使命更加紧迫了。


Wang’s visit thus is coming at a time of fundamental redefinition of Sino-Indian relations.	王毅的访问正逢中印关系面临根本性重估的关口。


Given that continued friction is inevitable, even if no conflict occurs, the challenge is to find a way to engage in creative and competitive cooperation that bolsters both countries’ efforts to eradicate poverty and promote economic development.	考虑到后续摩擦的不可避免，即便不发生冲突，也面临着找到建设性、竞争性合作以促进两国消灭贫困、刺激经济发展的挑战。


Xi has said that, “We need to innovate in our security concepts, establish a new regional security-cooperation architecture, and jointly build a shared, win-win road for Asian security.”	习近平说：“应该创新安全理念，搭建地区安全和合作新架构，努力走出一条共建、共享、共赢的亚洲安全之路。


But China’s actions suggest that its leaders view Chinese hegemony as the only viable security structure for the region.	”但中国的行为表明其领导人将中国霸权视为唯一可行的地区安全结构。


Subordination to China is certainly not Modi’s goal.	屈从于中国决非莫迪的目标。


The question is whether he can work with China and other Asian actors to design an alternative framework for regional peace.	问题在于他是否能与中国和其他亚洲行动方共同为地区和平设计另外一套框架。


The Election Question	选举问题


NEW DELHI – With street protests roiling democracies from Bangkok to Kyiv, the nature and legitimacy of elections are once again being questioned.	新德里—从曼谷到基辅，街头抗议席卷了民主国家，选举的性质和合法性再一次受到了质疑。


Are popular elections an adequate criterion by which to judge a country’s commitment to democracy?	群众选举是评价一国民主承诺的充分标准码？


Beginning next month, elections in Afghanistan and India will throw this question into even sharper relief.	从下个月开始，阿富汗和印度的选举将让这一问题更加尖锐。


Afghanistan will hold a presidential election on April 5.	阿富汗将于4月5日举行总统选举。


But a smooth electoral process is far from guaranteed – especially given that US President Barack Obama has already informed Afghan President Hamid Karzai that the United States and NATO have no choice but to withdraw their troops by the end of this year.	但选举过程极有可能很不平稳——特别是考虑到美国总统奥巴马已经通知阿富汗总理卡尔扎伊美国和北约别无选择、只能在今年年底撤军的情况下。


The US and NATO would prefer to avoid an abrupt and complete withdrawal – a preference that Afghanistan’s neighbors share, fearing that any resulting disorder would spill over their borders.	美国和北约更想避免突然而完全的撤军——阿富汗的邻国也不想这样，它们担心这会带来失序，并且其效应会溢出到它们境内。


The problem is that Karzai has refused to sign a painstakingly negotiated bilateral security agreement governing a post-2014 US-NATO mission in Afghanistan, leaving Obama with little choice but to begin contingency planning.	问题在于卡尔扎伊拒绝签署好不容易谈成的关于2014年后美国-北约阿富汗任务的双边安全协议，导致奥巴马别无选择，只能启动备选计划。


The only conceivable alternative would be to await the next president’s inauguration, in the hope that Karzai’s successor would formally accept the agreement.	唯一想得到的替代方案是等到下任总统上台，寄希望于卡尔扎伊的继任者能正式接受协议。


Karzai’s intransigence is rooted in his desire to launch a peace process between the government and the Afghan Taliban – similar to that which Pakistan has initiated with its own Taliban.	卡尔扎伊不肯让步的根源是他渴望开启政府和阿富汗塔利班之间的和平进程——就像巴基斯坦和巴基斯坦塔利班那样。


He believes that the security agreement with the US could be a useful bargaining chip in such negotiations.	他认为与美国的安全协议是这一谈判的有用的讨价还价筹码。


But this view fails to account for the potential consequences of a premature withdrawal of US and NATO forces, including diminished morale among Afghan forces and renewed hope among the Taliban that they will be able to retake control of the country relatively soon.	但这一观点并能解释操之过急的美国和北约撤军的潜在后果，包括阿富汗军队士气低落和塔利班重燃可以在相对较短时间内重新控制阿富汗的希望。


In this context, it is difficult to predict what the presidential election will bring.	在这样的环境下，很难预测总统选举会带来什么。


Ostensibly, it will strengthen democracy in Afghanistan, given the likelihood of a large voter turnout.	从表面上看，它将增强阿富汗民主，因为投票率有可能很高。


But numbers alone will not be enough to stop the Taliban, which already ruled the country once, despite being a small minority force.	但光是数字并不足以阻止曾一度控制过这个国家的塔利班，尽管塔利班军队规模已经很小。


Just two days after Afghanistan’s polls close, India will launch its marathon general election, to be concluded on May 12.	阿富汗选举结束两天后，印度将开启其马拉松式的大选，直到5月12日才会结束。


Although India has been a functioning democracy for almost seven decades, its government remains plagued by corruption and inefficiency.	尽管印度作为运转正常的民主国家已经存在了近七十年，但其政府仍饱受腐败和低效率困扰。


Add to that the logistics of conducting elections in so vast a country, and the complexity of India’s electoral process becomes starkly apparent.	此外，在如此广袤的国家举行选举会存在巨大的物流问题，而印度选举进程的复杂程度也令人咋舌。


For starters, nearly 100 million people have been added to the voter rolls since the last national election in 2009.	首先，在2009年全国选举以来，选民数量增加了近一亿人。 大约8.


Roughly 814 million people – more than the populations of the US, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, and Bangladesh combined – will be eligible to vote, making the upcoming election the largest since independence in 1947.	14亿人——比美国、印尼、巴西、俄罗斯和孟加拉国总人口还要多——拥有选举资格，这意味着此次大选将是印度1947年独立以来规模最大的一次。


Complicating matters further are geographical and climactic disparities among constituencies.	让大选进一步复杂化的是选区之间巨大的人口和气候差异。


The Himalayan highlands, for example, will remain snowbound until May, by which time monsoon rains will have begun to sweep southern and northeastern India.	比如，喜马拉雅高原5月份还是飘雪季节，但印度南部和东北部将迎来肆虐的季风雨。


Accommodating this massive pool of voters, without compromising the results, will require roughly 930,000 polling stations, equipped with electronic voting machines, and one million election workers to manage the process.	要承接如此大规模的选民又不能蒙混过关，就需要大约930,000个装配电子投票机的投票站和一百万名选举工作人员管理投票过程。


The elections will occur in nine phases, staggered over five weeks.	选举将分九个阶段举行，时间长达五周。


Even printing sufficient electoral rolls is no small task, given that each of a party’s 7-10 parliamentary candidates in a constituency is entitled to a copy, with each copy comprising the names of more than one million voters.	就连印刷足够数量的选票也不是个小任务，一个选区的一个政党的7—10名议会候选人可以组成一张拷贝（copy），每张拷贝有超过一百万选民的名字。


Though it is impossible to know at this point how many candidates will run, it is estimated that 53 recognized political parties will be represented in the elections.	尽管无法得知此时有多少候选人在竞选，但有53个被承认的政党会在选举中得到代表。


Interestingly, India’s election commission has introduced a “none of the above” option to the ballot for this election, following a ruling by the Supreme Court last year.	有趣的是，此次印度选举的选票上有一个“以上都不选”的选项，这是最高法院在去年做出的裁定。


But, while citizens’ demand for the option reflects widespread dissatisfaction with the current government, the provision ultimately will have little impact, given that candidates with the most votes will be elected, even if a majority of voters rejects all of the candidates.	但是，尽管印度公民对这一选项的要求反映了对现任政府广泛的不满，但这一选项最终将产生不了什么影响，因为获得选票最多的候选人将当选，即使大部分选民拒绝投票给任何一位候选人。


Nonetheless, the upcoming election will undoubtedly bring a change in government.	尽管如此，即将到来的大选毫无疑问将给政府带来改变。


The question is whether new faces and a different balance of parties will lead to more stable and effective governance, or to a continuation of the current government’s misrule – what the Indian academic Pratap Bhanu Mehta has called “a plutocracy of the most insidious kind.”	问题在于新面孔和政党新平衡是否能带来稳定、高效的治理，还是会继续本届政府的混乱管理——印度学者梅塔（Pratap Bhanu Mehta）称之为“最阴险的富豪统治”。


Despite the very different challenges that lie ahead for Afghanistan and India, their electoral experiences will have one thing in common: they will serve as a clear reminder that there is no easy route to democracy.	尽管阿富汗和印度需要面临的挑战大相径庭，但它们的选举经验有一个共同点：提醒我们民主没有捷径。


One hopes that, at the very least, next month’s elections amount to a step forward.	我们希望，下个月的选举至少能带来进步。


The Afghan Muddle	阿富汗迷局


NEW DELHI – Despite some last-minute brinkmanship by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the United States and Afghanistan seem to have worked out a bilateral security agreement to govern the 8,000-10,000 (mostly American) troops that will remain in Afghanistan from next year.	发自新德里——尽管阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊（Hamid Karzai）在谈判的最后时刻依然在耍手段，但美国和阿富汗双方似乎终于拿出了一份双边安全协议，以规管明年继续驻扎在阿富汗的8000~10000人武装部队（大部分是美军）。


But Afghanistan remains a source of significant uncertainty – and high anxiety – in an already unstable region.	但阿富汗仍然是这个本来就不稳定的区域中一个重大不确定性——以及高度忧虑因素——的来源。


Although the Afghan army has performed surprisingly well this year as it has prepared to assume full responsibility for the country’s security, governments in the region remain deeply skeptical of its ability to resist a resurgent Taliban without the strong support that the US has provided.	虽然阿富汗军队已经做好准备承担国家安全的全部责任，今年表现也出乎意料地好，但该地区的各国政府依然深切怀疑如果没有美国提供的强大支持，该国是否有足够的能力去抵抗死灰复燃的塔利班。


But the Americans are intent on withdrawal, and no other country is willing to assume the responsibilities that they are relinquishing.	如今美国人有意撤出，却没有国家愿意去接替它承担这一职责。


In this context, the fear that Afghanistan will unravel once again risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.	在这种情况下，恐怕阿富汗再次解体的预言将可能成为事实。


In fact, a closer look at various key governments’ approaches to Afghanistan reveals that only the US is maintaining a coherent stance.	实际上，只要仔细研究一下各国政府跟阿富汗打交道的手段，就会发现只有美国保持了一致的立场。


Pakistani policy is practically at war with itself.	巴基斯坦的对阿政策实际上是自己在跟自己过不去。


Since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan has viewed the country as a source of “strategic depth” in its decades-old enmity with India.	自1979年苏联入侵阿富汗以来，巴基斯坦就将阿富汗视为本国与宿敌印度之间的“战略纵深”。


As a result, it has been playing both sides of the US-Taliban conflict, permitting US drone strikes against Afghan Taliban leaders hiding in its western provinces but making little effort to confront the Taliban on the ground.	因此它在美国-塔利班冲突中两面下注，一方面允许美国无人机空袭躲藏在其西部省份的阿富汗塔利班领导人，另一方面却很少抵抗塔利班的地面进攻。


This way, the logic went, Pakistan could retain enough influence with the Taliban to secure leverage over Afghanistan’s government.	这样一来，在逻辑上，巴基斯坦就可以拥有对塔利班的足够影响力并保持对阿富汗政府的制约。


But it is the Taliban that ultimately gained strategic depth in its Pakistan-based guerrilla war with Afghanistan – a war that has become a serious threat to Pakistan’s security.	但最终获得战略纵深的其实是塔利班——它在以巴基斯坦为基地与阿富汗开展的游击战争取得了优势，而这场战争则对巴基斯坦的安全构成严重威胁。


The Pakistani Taliban has killed hundreds of Pakistani soldiers this year.	今年，巴基斯坦塔利班已经杀害了数百名巴基斯坦士兵。


And Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s new strategy – to seek a non-interference agreement with the Pakistani Taliban – will probably lead to even more domestic insecurity.	纳瓦兹·谢里夫（Nawaz Sharif）总理的新策略——寻求与巴基斯坦塔利班达成互不干扰协议——将可能导致更多的国内危机。


Meanwhile, India has been attempting to counter-balance Pakistan’s influence with the Taliban by providing investment, military training, aid, and other support to the Afghan government.	与此同时，印度一直试图通过提供投资，军事训练，援助以及其他支持阿富汗政府的手段来制衡巴基斯坦对塔利班的影响。


But this amounts to betting all of its chips on one hand, the Afghan government – an especially risky strategy in such a volatile environment.	但是，这无异于在阿富汗政府身上投注所有的筹码——在一个动荡的环境中这是一个特别冒险的策略。


China’s Afghan policy also has its pitfalls.	而中国的阿富汗政策也存在缺陷。


The People’s Republic has invested billions of dollars in Afghanistan, including a $3 billion payment for rights to mine copper at Mes Aynak.	该国已经在阿富汗投入了数十亿美元，其中包括以30亿美元购得的阿亚纳克地区铜矿开采权。


Although the Chinese have offered rhetorical support for international forces’ anti-terror efforts in Afghanistan, they have refused even the smallest military role.	虽然中国已经对国际部队在阿富汗的反恐努力作出口头支持，但它拒绝发挥哪怕最微小的军事作用。 并且在过去的十年中中国只提供了约2.


And they have provided only about $250 million in aid over the last decade – a paltry sum, given the potential consequences of Afghan instability for China’s $6 trillion economy.	5亿美元的援助——这相对阿富汗的动荡可能对中国6万亿美元的经济规模所造成的潜在影响来说，实在是微不足道。


To be sure, China claims to be upholding its doctrine of non-interference in other countries’ domestic affairs.	可以肯定的是，中国声称要维护其不干涉他国内政的原则。


But, with the Afghan government asking the entire international community for assistance, Chinese aid would not violate this principle.	但鉴于阿富汗政府寻求整个国际社会的援助，中国的援助将不会违背这一原则。


Moreover, China’s hands-off policy could end up jeopardizing its investments in Afghanistan – not to mention the security threat that would arise were a re-empowered Taliban to provide aid or sanctuary to the increasingly Islamist Uighur separatists in China’s Xinjiang region.	此外，中国的不干涉政策最终可能危及其在阿富汗的投资——更不用说卷土重来的塔利班为中国新疆地区日益增加的维吾尔分离主义分子提供援助和庇护所带来的安全威胁。


Iran’s Afghan policy has been reflexively anti-American for much of the last decade.	而在过去十年间，伊朗的阿富汗政策基本上是逢美国必反对。


But back in 2001, Iran’s government, led by reformist President Mohammad Khatami, essentially consented to the US invasion of Afghanistan, even providing discreet assistance.	但其实早在2001年，由改革派总统穆罕默德·哈塔米领导的伊朗政府基本上是同意美国入侵阿富汗的，甚至不动声色地提供了一些协助。


Iran was scrupulous in closing its border to the Taliban – and about detaining Taliban and Al Qaeda figures who sought refuge.	在封锁其通向塔利班占领区的边境——并拘留寻求庇护的塔利班和基地组织重要人物方面伊朗都表现得相当有原则。


Indeed, it was Iran that first suggested that Karzai lead the newly formed Afghan government, and Khatami’s government pledged $560 million in assistance over five years at the first donor conference for Afghanistan in early 2002.	事实上，当年是伊朗第一个提出让卡尔扎伊领导新成立阿富��政府，而且在2002年初的第一个阿富汗捐助国会议上，哈塔米政府还承诺在5年内为阿富汗提供5. 6亿美元的援助。


But US President George W. Bush’s notorious “axis of evil” speech – delivered just days later, and citing Iran as one of America’s three most dangerous enemies – spurred a reversal of Iranian policy.	但不久之后美国总统小布什就发表了臭名昭著的“邪恶轴心”演讲，并将伊朗定义为为美国最危险的三大敌人之一——这导致伊朗政策了发生逆转。


Khatami’s successor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, repeatedly condemned the presence of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, and even worked to obstruct their efforts.	哈塔米的继任者，艾哈迈迪内贾德（Mahmoud Ahmadinejad）多次谴责美国和北约驻阿富汗部队的存在，甚至想方设法阻挠后者的进展。


One hopes that the recent agreement concerning Iran’s nuclear program portends a return to a more flexible Iranian policy toward Afghanistan – essential if there is to be a regional solution to Afghanistan’s problems.	人们希望，有关伊朗核计划的最新协议预示着伊朗对阿富汗政策回归到一个更灵活的局面——如果要以区域性方案去解决阿富汗问题，这是至关重要的。


Given America’s looming departure, such a solution is becoming increasingly urgent.	鉴于美国即将离开，这样的解决方案也就变得越来越迫切。


But reaching a regional consensus will not be easy, given the disparate nature and interests of the regimes involved.	但由于这些政权在本质和利益上的巨大差别，要达成区域共识并不容易。


Iran, China, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are all dictatorships – one religious, one market-communist, and two personal.	伊朗，中国，塔吉克斯坦，以及乌兹别克斯坦都是专政国家——一个是宗教国家，一个是共产主义国家，两个是个人独裁国家。


India is a democracy, and Pakistan a wayward democracy.	印度是一个民主国家，而巴基斯坦则是一个刚愎自用捉摸不定的民主国家。


Nearby Russia is increasingly a one-man-show under President Vladimir Putin, who seems intent on refighting the Cold War with the US, rather than constructing viable strategic relationships that reflect Russia’s diminished reality.	临近的俄罗斯则越来越像总统弗拉迪米尔·普京的个人秀，此人似乎有意重燃与美国之间的冷战，而不是构建反映俄罗斯不断衰落现实的可行性战略关系。


Nonetheless, all of these countries (perhaps with the admittedly large exception of Pakistan) can agree on certain core objectives.	然而，所有这些国家（也许公认的巴基斯坦除外）可以围绕一定的核心目标达成一致。


First, Afghanistan must not become a safe haven for terrorists.	首先，阿富汗不能成为恐怖分子的安全港。


Mullah Mohammed Omar – the Taliban’s leader, who is reportedly in hiding in Pakistan – must understand that if the Taliban uses any formal political influence it gains in Afghanistan to support terrorist activities, it will face united regional opposition.	穆罕默德·奥玛尔（Mullah Mohammed Omar）——塔利班领导人，据报目前躲藏在巴基斯坦——必须明白，如果塔利班利用其从阿富汗获得的任何形式的政治影响来支持恐怖活动，它将面临整个区域各国的联合反对。


Second, given their limited leverage, Afghanistan’s neighbors must lean hard on countries that can influence any future Afghan government.	第二，鉴于其有限的力量，众阿富汗邻国必须依靠那些可以影响任何未来阿富汗政府的国家。


The Gulf states, for example, have the means to invest in building an Afghanistan that provides real opportunities to all citizens – particularly the young men whose lack of options so often drives them into the arms of terrorist recruiters.	例如，海湾国家就拥有各种手段投资建设一个能向所有公民提供真正谋生机会的阿富汗——特别是针对那些因为缺乏选择而常常投向恐怖主义招募者怀抱的年轻人。


Realistically, however, the potential for achieving such an outcome is limited.	然而实际上实现这一成果的潜力是有限的。


Most important, Afghanistan’s neighbors must not play power politics within the country, in the hope of gaining some slight advantage over one another.	最重要的是，这些邻国不能继续在阿富汗国内玩弄强权政治以企图获得战胜另一个国家的微弱优势。


That path, as we have seen, leads only to chaos, from which no country benefits.	这条路，正如我们所当前见，只会造成混乱而无人得益。


Asia’s Historical Furies	亚洲的历史恩怨


TOKYO – A country’s foreign policy is supposed to be aimed, first and foremost, at advancing its national interest.	东京—一国外交政策的首要目标应该是促进其国家利益。


But, in large parts of Asia, the national interest – whether building commercial ties or bolstering security – is often subordinated to history and its hold on the popular imagination.	但是，在亚洲大部，国家利益——不管是构建商业关系还是增强安全——常常屈服于历史和民众印象。


As US Vice President Joe Biden just discovered on his tour of Japan, China, and South Korea, the American novelist William Faulkner’s observation – “The past is never dead.	正如美国副总统拜登在其日本、中国和韩国之旅中刚刚发现的，美国小说家福克纳的观察——“过去永远不会死去。


It’s not even past.” – could not be more apt.	过去甚至不曾过去”真是再正确不过了。


One commonly cited example of this is the relationship between India and Pakistan.	这方面的一个人所共知的例子是印度和巴基斯坦关系。


Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif recognize the vast economic potential of enhanced bilateral trade ties, and the progress that they have sought in this area is clearly in both countries’ national interest.	印度总理辛格和巴基斯坦总理沙里夫都看得到加强双边贸易联系的巨大的潜在经济潜力，他们所寻求的进展也显然符合双方的国家利益。


But their diplomatic overtures have been quickly stymied by those who cannot accept such reasoning, going so far at times as to commit acts of terror and launch military incursions.	但他们的友好外交姿态很快就被无法接受这一道理之人从中作梗，甚至不惜发动恐怖行动和军事入侵来破坏。


But Asia’s history problem is not confined to its democracies, where public opinion directly influences the government’s actions.	但亚洲的历史问题并不只限于公共观点直接影响政府行为的民主国家。


China and Vietnam, too, remain in thrall of their long and bitter shared history.	中国和越南之间也有悠久而苦涩的历史恩怨。


The late General Vo Nguyen Giap, who led Vietnam through wars with France and the United States to independence, spent his final years protesting against Chinese investment in his country.	已故的武元甲——他领导越南战胜法国和美国赢得独立——在晚年一直反对中国对越投资。


Perhaps Asia’s most dangerous case of historical obsession is to be found in the relationship between China and Japan.	也许亚洲最危险的历史恩怨在中日之间。


The current dispute in the East China Sea over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands (the Diaoyu Islands in China) would likely be less tense if the atrocities of the Sino-Japanese War were not rehashed so often in contemporary Chinese life.	如果中日战争的惨状不曾在当代中国人的生活中一再改编，目前围绕日本控制的尖阁列岛（中国称钓鱼岛）的争议可能也不会如此之大。


In fact, Japan has attempted to atone for its past actions, including by offering enthusiastic support to Deng Xiaoping’s efforts to open up the Chinese economy.	事实上，日本尝试了为过去的行为赎罪，包括对邓小平经济开放政策提供热情的支持。


The trillions of yen that Japanese businesses have invested in China since the 1990’s – not to mention the transfer of critical technologies – could not have been about profit alone (and, in any case, Japanese investment has benefited both economies).	20世纪90年代以来，日本企业在中国投资了数万亿日元——更不用说转移关键技术了——其初衷绝不仅仅是为了利润（并且日本的投资给双方都带来了好处）。


But, while these efforts have helped to deepen Japan’s economic ties with China, they have not had the transformative impact on bilateral relations that one might have expected.	但是，尽管这些努力加深了日本与中国的经济联系，但并没有如预期那样改变双边关系。


Indeed, their relationship is now characterized by what the Japanese call seirei keinetsu (cold politics, hot economics).	事实上，日本用“政治冷，经济热”来概括目前的中日关系。


Bad history also stalks the relationship between Japan and South Korea – a particularly revealing case, given how closely their strategic interests align.	但历史同样也影响着日本和韩国之间的关系——这尤其值得注意，因为日本和韩国战略利益联系紧密。


Here are two democracies, both among America’s closest allies, unable to overcome the burden of the past.	它们都是民主国家，都是美国最紧密的盟友，都无法克服历史负担。


For South Koreans, it is a heavy burden, rooted in Japanese colonization and the myriad horrors of World War II.	对韩国人来说，日本殖民史和二战的巨大恐怖是一个沉重的负担。


But the simple fact is that both countries would benefit substantially, in security terms in particular, from effective cooperation.	但简单的事实是两国可以从有效合作中获得极大的好处，特别是安全方面的好处。


In fact, serei keinetsu defines the Asian status quo: countries that cannot seem to overcome their historical animosities when it comes to foreign policy readily acknowledge that better relations means better economies.	事实上，“政治冷，经济热”概括了亚洲的现状：各国在制定外交政策时无法克服历史仇恨、承认更好的关系会带来更好的经济。


East Asia, in particular, has experienced an unprecedented surge in intra-regional trade, investment, and even tourism over the last two decades.	特别是在东亚，在过去二十年里，该地区经历了前所未有的地区内贸易、投资甚至旅游大繁荣。


Yet there is reason for hope – and it is coming from an unexpected source.	但有理由保持希望——并且这一希望来自出乎意料的地方。


With China’s efforts to assert itself as a regional hegemon stoking fears across Asia, its neighbors seem to be increasingly willing to vacate old grudges in favor of stronger alliances.	中国充当地区霸权的图谋在亚洲引起了恐慌，其邻国似乎越来越愿意抛弃就恩怨，构建更强大的联盟。


For example, Japan’s relations with Vietnam and Myanmar, both of which border China, have been warming rapidly in recent years – a trend that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has sought to cultivate.	比如，日本与中国的邻国越南和缅甸的关系在近几年迅速升温，这是日本首相安倍晋三刻意培养的结果。


Likewise, the Philippines – locked in a stand-off with China over the disputed Scarborough shoal – has set aside its resentment over Japan’s wartime occupation and accepted increased aid and naval assistance, including ten patrol vessels, worth $11 million each, to help with maritime surveillance.	类似地，菲律宾——它在黄岩岛争议中与中国陷入了僵局——暂时抛弃了对日本战争时期占领菲律宾的仇恨，接受了日本的海军支持，包括可用于海事监控的十艘巡逻艇（每艘价值1100万美元）。


Filipino Foreign Minister Albert del Rosario has even declared publicly that the country would welcome a more muscular Japanese defense policy to offset China’s military buildup.	菲律宾外交部长罗萨里奥（Albert del Rosario）甚至公开宣称菲律宾欢迎更加强硬的日本防务政策，以抵消中国的军事扩张。


One reason for this turnaround is that many in the Philippines have felt somewhat abandoned by the US in their confrontation with China.	发生如此转变的一个原因是，许多菲律宾人感到在与中国的对峙中，他们一定程度上遭到了美国的抛弃。


With China increasingly asserting claims to territories in the South and East China Seas, other Asian countries may also find the burden of history to be too great an impediment to their future prospects.	随着中国对南海和东海的领土主张日益强硬，其他亚洲国家也会发现让历史包袱妨碍未来前景得不偿失。


Japan could go a long way toward helping its neighbors overcome the poisoned past that it shares with so many of them as a result of its old imperial ambitions.	在帮助邻国克服历史包袱还有很长的路要走。 这些包袱很大程度上是日本昔日的帝国野心给这些国家带来的。


Just as US President Richard Nixon’s unyielding anti-communism uniquely suited him to establish diplomatic relations with China, Abe, an affirmed nationalist, may be the Japanese politician best able to blend contrition for the past with forthrightness about the present.	正如美国总统尼克松不屈的反共立场使他成为与中国建立邦交的不二人选，坚定的民族主义者安倍晋三或许也正是最能够将悔悟历史与直面现实结合起来的政治家。


The good news is that Abe has shown signs of this kind of courage.	好消息是，安倍晋三表现出这方面的勇气。


At a 2006 summit with Chinese leaders during his first stint as Japan’s prime minister, he agreed to establish a joint commission, involving historians from Japan, China, and elsewhere, to study twentieth-century history.	2006年，在其第一次担任日本首相期间与中国举行的峰会上，他同意建立一个由日本、中国和其他国家历史学家组成的联合委员会研究二十世纪历史。


The idea was that the commission could make unbiased recommendations about contentious issues like the contents of history textbooks and even the Yasukuni shrine, a nationalist pilgrimage site where the remains of Japanese war criminals, among others, are interred.	其初衷是该委员会能就历史教科书内容甚至靖国神社（供奉日本战犯的民族主义朝圣地）等争议问题给出无偏颇的建议。


If Abe revived this initiative today, he could help to dampen the regional antagonism he faces in trying to make Japan a “normal” country, with a military capable of participating in collective regional defense.	如果如今安倍晋三重启这一方案，将有助于打破他在试图让日本成为能够参与地区集体防务的“正常”国家的过程中所面临的地区敌对情绪。


Such an initiative may not work with China, where the government still uses the war with Japan to rouse nationalist sentiment.	这一方案或许对中国不管用，因为中国政府仍在利用抗日战争煽动民族主义情绪。


But countries like South Korea that are feeling the pressure of China’s rise – as demonstrated by the current furor over China’s unilateral expansion of its air defense zone – may well reciprocate such an effort.	但韩国等国家正在感受中国崛起的压力——中国单方面扩大其放空区所引起的愤怒即是明证——它们将会有热烈的反应。


That alone should be reason enough for Abe to act.	光是这一点便足以促使安倍晋三采取行动。


Globalizing European Security	欧洲安全的全球化


MADRID – Global security – a safe and peaceful environment free of conflict – is a public good.	马德里—全球安全——没有冲突的安全和平环境——是一种公共品。


In other words, all of the world’s citizens and countries benefit from it, regardless of whether they contribute to supplying it.	换句话说，全世界所有公民和国家都能从中获益，不管你是否出力供应了它。


Given this, free riders (those who enjoy the benefits of the good without investing in its provision) are likely to be plentiful.	因此，免费搭车者（享受了公共品好处但并没有投资于公共品供给的人）可能会有很多。


But, when it comes to global stability, the world simply cannot afford a free-riding Europe.	但是，当事关全球稳定时，世界无法负担免费搭车的欧洲。


To be sure, given Europe’s violent past, the European Union’s greatest contribution to international security has been to ensure stability in its own region.	平心而论，从欧洲暴力的历史记录看，欧盟对国际安全的最大贡献在于确保了其内部的稳定。


Today, nearly a century after the outbreak of World War I, peace and stability are firmly entrenched in Europe.	如今，距离第一次世界大战已经过去了近一个世纪，和平与稳定已经深深地嵌入了欧洲。


Other regions, however, are volatile and unstable.	但是，其他地区充满了动荡和不稳定。


For example, strategic tinderboxes like the Middle East and Southeast Asia lack the regional security structures with which Europe is endowed.	比如，中东和东南亚等战略火药桶缺少类似欧洲的地区安全结构。


The Middle East’s geographic proximity means that Europe cannot ignore it, while it would be folly to ignore Southeast Asia’s economic weight.	中东是欧洲的地缘政治近邻，因此欧洲不能忽视它，同样，忽视东南亚的经济重要性也是愚蠢的。


The EU is the world’s largest economy, with annual GDP of more than €15.5 trillion ($21.3 trillion), and its greatest trading power, accounting for 20% of world trade.	欧盟是世界最大经济体，其年度GDP超过15. 5万亿欧元（21.


Clearly, the EU should aspire to increase its contribution to global security beyond maintaining peace among its member states.	3万亿美元），同时欧盟也是世界最大的贸易体，占全球贸易的20%。 显然，欧盟应该对全球安全的贡献不应该只限于保持其成员国之间的和平。


This is no time for Europe to rest on its laurels – particularly with the United States moving to extract itself from two wars and confronting isolationist urges.	欧洲还远没有到可以在功劳簿上睡大觉的程度——特别是在美国抽身两场战争、面临孤立主义思潮时。


Enter this month’s European Council meeting: on December 19-20, heads of state and government from the EU’s 28 member countries will convene to discuss the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP).	本月，欧盟理事会将召开会议：12月19—20日，来自欧盟28个成员国的国家和政府首脑将齐聚一堂讨论共同安全和防务政策（Common Security and Defense Policy，CSDP）。


Throughout the discussions, a forward-looking, ambitious vision must be maintained in order to bring a truly global European security strategy into view.	在讨论过程中，各位领导人必须拿出远见卓识，让人们看到一个真正的全球性欧洲安全战略。


Unfortunately, in national governments and EU institutions alike, the leadership needed to realize this strategic vision is lacking.	不幸的是，不管是国家政府还是欧盟机构，领导者都需要认识到他们缺少这一战略眼光。


The summit will face several hurdles from the outset.	此次峰会从一开始就将面临诸多障碍。


For starters, the ongoing consequences of simultaneous economic, political, and institutional crises continue to determine the European agenda.	首先，经济、政治和制度三重危机的持续后果仍在左右欧洲日程。


Realizing a long-term vision is more difficult than ever when so many short-term imperatives – reviving growth and employment, winning elections, and re-engaging a distrustful public amid growing populist sentiment, to name just a few – materialize simultaneously.	实现长期愿景的困难性前所未有地大，因为大量短期障碍——重振增长和就业、赢得选举、在民粹主义情绪日益高涨的背景下重获公众信任等——正在同时发生作用。


In this environment, deepening Europe’s defense and security integration would appear to be low on the list of priorities.	在这样的环境下，深化欧洲防务和安全一体化不可能成为当务之急。


But the opposite is true: further development of the CSDP is essential to the survival of the European way of life.	但事实正好相反：CSDP的进一步发展对于维持欧洲生存之道来说至关重要。


This month’s Council will lay the foundations for the CSDP’s further development by addressing three main topics: operational efficiency, defense capabilities, and the state of the European defense industry.	本月的欧盟理事会将通过解决三个主要问题为CSDP的进一步发展打��基础：运转效率、防务能力和欧洲防务行业的状况。


If the EU’s defense and security policy is to be strong, global, and effective, it is imperative to take advantage of both the specialization and pooling of member states’ technology and resources.	要想让欧洲的防务和安全政策变得强硬、全球化并且卓有成效，一个当务之急是利用好各成员国技术和资源的专长和合力。


As national budgets shrink under the effects of austerity, the EU should review member states’ spending on security.	紧缩导致国家预算缩水，因此欧盟应该检视各成员国的安全支出。


It is senseless for each national government to invest limited resources identically.	各国政府各自为政投入有限资源是无济于事的。


This moment holds potential: spending cuts could be transformed into an opportunity to coordinate and integrate Europe’s defense industry, thus maximizing overall efficiency.	目前有一个潜在契机：支出削减可以成为协调和统一欧洲防务行业的机会，从而实现整体效率最大化。


The objective must be to boost European security integration (in its broadest sense), lifting Europe to the forefront of global security.	目标必须定在提振欧洲安全一体化（按最广义的定义）上，从而让欧洲站在全球安全最前沿。


As member states advance along this path, propelled forward by technological and operational excellence and innovation, they will find avenues to eliminate unnecessary spending and optimize resource use.	随着成员国在技术和执行优势和创新的推动下沿着这一方向前进，它们将找到削减不必要支出、优化资源使用的方法。


Europe’s defense industry will not be able to make progress without a well-functioning market – open, transparent, and with equal opportunities for all European suppliers.	没有运转良好的市场——公开、透明、让所有欧洲供应商获得平等机会——欧洲的防务行业就不可能取得进步。


Advances in the defense industry lead to significant positive externalities, such as civil-military synergies and investment in research and development, which is fundamental to growth, innovation, and future competitiveness.	防务行业的进步能带来巨大的正外部性，包括民用-军用协同效应和研发投资，而这些正是增长、创新和未来竞争力的基础。


A critical component in the coordination and proper functioning of Europe’s security and defense policy is the European Defense Agency.	欧洲安全和防务政策协调和合理运转的一个关键组成部分是欧洲防务局（European Defense Agency，EDA）。


At the upcoming summit, leaders should reiterate the importance of the EDA, whose budget has remained frozen at the insistence of certain member states.	在即将召开的峰会中，领导人们应该重申EDA的重要性。 由于几个成员国的抵制，EDA预算一直处于冻结状态。


It would be irresponsible to treat December’s Council meeting as just another summit.	将12月的欧盟理事会会议视为又一次普通峰会时不负责任的。


Europe and an increasingly unstable world need a viable framework for global security.	欧洲和日益动荡的世界需要可靠的全球安全框架。


A fully developed CSDP – itself the cornerstone of further European integration – must be a fundamental component of such a system.	完善的CSDP——其本身可以作为欧洲进一步一体化的基石——应该成为这一体系的关键组成部分。


The Shale Revolution’s Global Footprint	页岩革命的全球足迹


MADRID – Thousands of negotiators are currently gathered at the United Nations climate-change talks in Warsaw, creating a blueprint for a comprehensive global agreement to be delivered by 2015.	马德里—目前，数千谈判员齐聚联合国华沙气候变化对话会，为2015年全面全球协定绘制蓝图。


But, as the negotiators work, the world’s energy landscape is in enormous flux.	但是，在谈判员们展开工作的同时，世界能源图景正在发生重大变化。


Given that most of the world’s CO2 emissions stem from energy production and transport, it is critical to monitor these changes closely.	世界上大部分二氧化碳排放来自能源生产和运输过程，因此必须密切监控这些活动的变化。


In particular, the shockwaves triggered by the shale-energy revolution unleashed in the United States are reverberating globally.	特别地，正在美国展开的页岩能源革命所掀起的冲击波正在引发全球反响。


With the advent of hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” US oil production has risen by 30%, and gas production by 25%, in just five years.	随着液压致裂法的出现，短短五年内美国石油产量已增加了30%，天然气产量增加了25%。


Shale gas contributed almost nothing to US natural-gas supplies at the start of the century; by last year, its share had soared to 34%, with the US Energy Information Administration predicting a further rise to one-half by 2040.	21世纪初，页岩气对于美国天然气供给几乎无关紧要； 到去年已占天然气供给量的34%，美国能源信息局（US Energy Information Administration）预计到2040年将升至一半。


As a result of this bonanza, US domestic energy prices have plummeted.	拜页岩气所赐，美国国内能源价格大幅下降。


The US, with all its geographical blessings, is on the road to energy self-sufficiency and is reaping clear economic benefits.	拥有得天独厚地理条件的美国正在迈向能源自给，并收获着显而易见的经济利益。


Development of unconventional oil and gas supported 2.1 million jobs and contributed $74 billion in tax revenues and royalty payments to government coffers in 2012.	非常规油气开发支持了210万个工作岗位，2012年将为政府贡献740亿美元的税收收入和专利费。


Industrial competitiveness has soared, owing to much higher gas prices in Europe and Asia.	随着欧洲和亚洲气价上涨，美国产业竞争力迅速提高。


Refiners and petrochemical companies are flocking to the US.	炼油和石化公司纷纷涌向美国。


But this does not mean that the US can withdraw into splendid energy isolation.	但这并不意味着美国可以采取公然的能源孤立。


After all, energy is a global commodity.	毕竟，能源是一种全球商品。


The effect is direct when it comes to oil prices.	油价的影响是直接的。


Although oil accounts for a smaller part of the energy mix nowadays and spare capacity is currently well ensured, chiefly by Saudi Arabia, a price shock would still have global effects – as such shocks have had in the past.	尽管如今石油占能源组合的比重有所下降，冗余产能（主要在沙特阿拉伯）目前也得到了很好的保护，但价格冲击仍有可能影响全球——一如过去所发生过的价格冲击。


Gas prices, by contrast, vary widely across regions: from under $4/MMBtu in the US to around $10 in Europe and $15 in Asia.	相反，天然气价格在各地区有着极大的不同：美国为不到4美元/百万英热，欧洲为10美元左右，亚洲为15美元。


Until the gas market becomes more liquid and more global, this spread will remain.	在天然气市场变得更具流动性、更加全球化之前，这一价格差异将一直维持。


Nonetheless, global economic interdependence means that every country has a stake in others’ energy bills.	尽管如此，全球经济的相互依赖性意味着每个国家的能源支出都是全球性大事。


If one region’s economy falters, all countries feel the effects.	如果一个地区的经济萎靡不振，全世界都会受到影响。


In Europe, shale-energy resources have largely remained in the ground.	在欧洲，页岩能源资源基本上都位于地下。


Even so, the shale revolution across the Atlantic has been felt in diverse ways.	尽管如此，大西洋两岸的页岩革命仍有极大不同。


For example, decreased US demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) has allowed gas prices to come down in Europe.	比如，美国液化天然气需求的下降导致欧洲气价降低。


European utilities’ bargaining power vis-à-vis Russian gas giant Gazprom has risen considerably – despite long-term oil-indexed supply contracts.	欧洲发电厂对俄罗斯天然气巨头Gazprom的议价能力也获得了极大的提高——尽管长期石油指数化（oil-indexed）供给有所减少。


Yet European competitiveness is in danger.	但欧洲竞争力告急。


European companies are still buying gas at around triple the price paid by US firms.	欧洲公司的购气价格仍在美国企业的三倍左右。


This is unlikely to change in the near future, as liquefaction and transport costs will keep LNG prices high even if the US issues more export permits.	这一局面在近期不可能改变，因为即使美国增加出口许可量，液化和运输成本仍决定了液化天然气价格将十分高昂。


Finally, Europe’s energy mix is gradually shifting from the one that it needs to reach its climate-change goals.	最后，欧洲的能源格局正在逐渐变化以满足其气候变化目标的需要。


As inexpensive natural gas has eroded coal’s traditional share of electricity generation in the US, importing cheap coal from the US has become more attractive to Europe.	正如廉价天然气侵蚀了美国传统煤电的份额，从美国进口廉价煤炭对于欧洲已颇具吸引力。


Especially in Germany, the Energiewende (the shift away from nuclear energy following the Fukushima catastrophe in 2011) has led to an increase in coal consumption.	特别是在德国，能源转型（2011年日本福岛核事故后德国决定减少核能）导致煤炭消费上升。


Indeed, coal is on track to provide more than half of Germany’s electricity supply.	事实上，煤炭很可能将提供德国一半以上的电力。


The EU’s position as a climate-change champion is in danger.	欧洲作为气候变化先锋的地位可能不保。


Greenhouse-gas emissions may have dropped as a consequence of reduced production amid the economic recession, but the coal resurgence does not bode well for future targets.	温室气体排放或许会因为经济衰退导致产量下降而减少，但煤炭复兴对未来目标可不是好事。


Coal is king in China too, providing two-thirds of its power supply.	煤炭也是中国的主要能源资源，提供了三分之二的电力。


But China’s rulers know that this situation is unsustainable.	但中国执政者知道这一局面是不可持续的。


Not only is air pollution a growing source of concern, but diversification of energy sources is a crucial national-security interest.	空气污染已经越来越令人担忧，同时，能源资源的多样化也是国家��全利益的关键之一。


The scale of China’s unconventional energy endowments is still relatively uncertain.	中国非常规能源禀赋规模相对来说仍不太确定。


But population density and water scarcity will certainly be inhibiting factors in their exploitation.	但人口密度和水资源稀缺必然将成为能源开采的制约因素。


China maintains robust relationships with energy producers in the Middle East, Russia, and elsewhere (including booming Myanmar) – to secure and diversify its conventional sources.	中国与中东、俄罗斯和其他地区（包括正在崛起的缅甸）能源生产国保持着稳定关系，以确保和多样化其传统能源资源。


Just last month, Dmitri Medvedev’s first visit to China as Russia’s prime minister resulted in a ten-year, $85 billion oil-supply deal for the state-owned energy giant Rosneft.	上个月，梅德韦杰夫首次作为俄罗斯总理访华，为俄国有能源巨头俄罗斯石油公司谈成了850亿美元的石油供应合同。


Natural gas, however, is the weak link.	但是，天然气是薄弱的一环。


Asia’s pipeline network is far too thin, and gas prices are among the highest in the world.	亚洲管网太单薄，气价也是全球最高。


That implies a potential boon to Russia’s main gas producers, especially as Europe’s energy-diversification campaign weakens export demand.	这对于俄罗斯主要天然气生产商来说是一件好事，特别是在欧洲能源多样化运动减少了出口需求时。


Indeed, given that oil and gas revenues account for half of Russia’s federal budget, adapting to new realities is virtually an existential imperative for the Russian state.	事实上，石油和天然气收入占据了俄罗斯联邦预算的半壁江山，根据新现实做出调整对于俄罗斯国家来说是事关生死存亡的大事。


There is opportunity in Siberia’s frozen taiga, particularly the Bazhenov field, which may hold some of the largest unconventional reserves in the world.	对于西伯利亚冻针叶林地带，特别是巴热诺夫（Bazhenov）气田来说是一次机会，那里可能蕴藏着全世界最大量的非常规资源。


But the investment needed to develop these resources may remain in short supply in the absence of tax reforms.	但若不进行税收改革，开发这些资源所需要的投资可能无法筹足。


The shale-energy revolution that started in the US is thus causing sweeping changes worldwide.	因此，始于美国的页岩能源革命正在全世界掀起翻天覆地的变化。


And incorporating shale gas into the world’s energy mix could help to combat climate change by creating a bridge to a low-carbon future.	将页岩气纳入全球能源版图可以创造通往低碳未来之路，从而有助于抵抗气候变化。


So long as methane leakage is contained, CO2 emissions from natural-gas combustion can be significantly lower than those caused by reliance on oil.	只要甲烷泄漏可以得到控制，天然气燃烧所释放的二氧化碳将远远低于对石油的依赖。


Cheap energy sources, however, can eventually come at a high price, albeit with a politically tricky time lag.	但是，廉价能源资源最终可能变为高价，尽管会有一个政治扯皮的时滞。


Simply put, the current cost of pollution is too low, while the level of urgency is high.	简言之，目前的污染成本太低，尽管紧迫程度很高。


In Warsaw and beyond, it is vitally important that the international community reaches a sufficiently high common denominator in limiting greenhouse-gas emissions.	在华沙及其后的会议上，国际社会就限制温室气体排放问题形成充分的高度一致至关重要。


If not, we will not be able to limit the global temperature increase to a sustainable level.	若非如此，我们就无法将全球温度升高限制在可持续水平。


Stabilizing Ukraine	稳定乌克兰局势


MADRID – Even Mikhail Gorbachev, who presided over the dissolution of the Soviet Union with scarcely a shot fired, has proclaimed his support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea.	马德里——就连在苏联解体期间任职总统且几乎一弹未发的戈尔巴乔夫也明确表示支持俄现任总统弗拉基米尔·普京吞并克里米亚。


The people of Crimea, he says, have corrected a historic Soviet error.	用他的话讲，克里米亚人民纠正了一个历史的错误。


Gorbachev’s sentiment is widely shared in Russia.	戈尔巴乔夫的情绪在俄罗斯受到广泛的认同。


After the Soviet Union’s disintegration in 1991, Russia went from superpower to backwater.	1991年苏联解体后，俄罗斯就从超级大国降格为穷乡僻壤。


Three ex-Soviet republics joined the European Union and NATO, asserting their desire not only for democracy and prosperity, but also to avoid being part of Russia ever again.	三个前苏联共和国加盟欧盟和北约，公开宣布他们不仅要实现民主和繁荣，还要避免以后再落入苏联的魔爪。


By moving to annex Crimea, Putin, supported massively – thus far – by domestic public opinion, seems to be ending the post-imperial frustration of the past two decades.	普京吞并克里米亚之举迄今为止受到国内舆论的强大支持，似乎为前20年后帝国时代的无奈画上了句号。


Since 1991, however, Russia explicitly recognized the territorial integrity of Ukraine on several occasions.	但1991年以来，俄罗斯曾多次明确承认乌克兰的领土完整性。


Such recognition was part of the 1992 Yalta Agreement, which divided the Black Sea fleet, and of the 1997 leasing contract that allowed the fleet to remain in Sevastopol.	这样的表态是1992年雅尔塔协定的组成部分，该协定划分了黑海舰队，要求俄罗斯必须承认乌克兰领土完整才能允许其舰队继续履行塞瓦斯托波尔的1997年租赁合同。


Ukraine’s territorial integrity was also recognized in the 1994 denuclearization agreement, signed by the United Kingdom, Russia, and the United States, and again in April 2011, when then-President Viktor Yanukovych extended the Sevastopol lease.	1994年由英、俄、美共同签署的无核化协议再次于2011年4月时任总统亚努科维奇续签塞瓦斯托波尔租约时承认了乌克兰领土的完整性。


The Ukrainian constitution prohibited the referendum on independence that was carried out in Crimea in the presence of Russian troops.	乌克兰宪法禁止在俄罗斯大兵压境的情况下就克里米亚独立问题进行公投。


With the vote to leave Ukraine and join the Russian Federation illegal by any reckoning, the international community, as the EU has declared, cannot accept the outcome.	随着克里米亚投票无论以何种标准衡量都以非法方式脱离乌克兰加入俄联邦，以欧盟为代表的国际社会宣布拒绝接受这一结果。


Relations between the EU and Ukraine have always been complex.	欧盟与乌克兰之间的关系一直非常复杂。


The Association Agreement that Yanukovych rejected last November – a decision that incited the popular protests that brought down his government – had been under negotiation since 2007.	去年十一月被亚努科维奇拒绝的联合协定——当时这一决定曾引发导致其政府垮台的民众抗议——自2007年来就一直处在谈判的过程当中。


Essentially a free-trade treaty with additional political elements, its signing was postponed because of the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.	该协定基本是融入了政治因素的自由贸易协定，该协定的签署因为乌克兰前总理尤利娅•季莫申科遭到监禁而被迫延后。


In the end, Yanukovych accepted Russia’s counter-offer: a 30% reduction in the price of Russian gas supplies and $15 billion to stave off default.	最终亚努科维奇接受了俄罗斯的条件：俄罗斯天然气降价30%，并出资150亿美元作为违约保障。


Russia needs Ukraine if it is to build the so-called Eurasian Union, the economic bloc that Putin is seeking with Kazakhstan and Belarus.	欧亚联盟是普京着力和哈萨克斯坦及白俄罗斯打造的经济集团，而乌克兰的参与是所谓欧亚联盟所不可或缺的。


Unlike the parties to a free-trade agreement, the members of a customs union like the one Putin envisages set trade policy with respect to third states through the establishment of common foreign tariffs.	与自由贸易协定缔约国不同，普京想象中的关税同盟成员通过征收共同对外关税来制定与第三国的经济政策。


Thus, Ukraine’s incorporation would be incompatible with its EU Association Agreement.	因此，乌克兰的加入与欧盟联合协议是相违背的。


Russia and Ukraine, however, already have a free-trade agreement, via the Commonwealth of Independent States free-trade agreement signed in October 2011, which is compatible with the proposed EU Association Agreement – in the same way that Mexico maintains free-trade treaties with the EU, as well as with the US and Canada.	但俄乌之间通过2011年10月签署的独联体自由贸易协定已经签署了自由贸易协定，而该协定与拟议中的欧盟联合协定并不冲突——类似的例子是墨西哥与欧盟签署了自由贸易协定，与美国和加拿大也一样。


Ukraine thus could have maintained normal relations with its neighbors, with the EU, and with Russia.	这样乌克兰原本可以和邻国、���盟及俄罗斯都保持关系正常。


But Russia needs Ukraine for nationalist as well as economic reasons.	但俄罗斯需要乌克兰除了经济因素还有民族主义因素。


Russian nationalism has always considered Ukraine an extension of Russia itself, by virtue of it being home to places that are among the dearest to Russian identity.	俄民族主义者始终认为乌克兰是俄本土的延伸，理由是乌克兰很多地方曾经是俄罗斯人的骄傲。


Putin has called Kyiv “the mother of all Russian cities.”	普京就把基辅称为“俄罗斯城市之母”。


Sevastopol, in turn, is a doubly heroic city: during the siege of the Crimean War in the nineteenth century and during World War II.	而塞瓦斯托波尔则有着双重的英雄光环：19世纪克里米亚战争围困期间以及第二次世界大战。


But understanding Russia’s frustrations and sentiments does not excuse invasion and annexation.	但了解俄罗斯的情绪和挫败感并不等于原谅侵略和吞并。


The EU Association Agreement threatened none of Russia’s interests, whether economic or cultural.	欧盟联合协定并未威胁到任何俄国利益，无论是经济还是文化方面。


Relations between the EU and Russia cannot be based on zero-sum games or spheres of influence.	欧盟与俄罗斯的关系不能是一场争夺势力范围的零和游戏。


Solutions must be found that enable all to win.	必须找到某种方式让各方同样受益。


Moreover, Russia’s annexation of Crimea will likely damage its core interest: its political relationship with Ukraine, which it wants to keep far from Europe.	此外，俄罗斯吞并克里米亚很可能损害其核心利益：它与乌克兰的政治关系，它尽可能让后者离欧洲越远越好。


So, for Europe, the most important priority now is to help to ensure stability and prosperity in the rest of Ukraine.	因此，对欧洲而言，现在的当务之急是要协助确保乌克兰其他地区的稳定和繁荣。


The first and most pressing issue is to stabilize the government in Kyiv.	最迫切的首要任务是要稳定基辅政府。


Ukraine’s presidential election on May 25 will be a key moment.	5月25日的总统选举将成为关键时刻。


The vote must be free and fair, according to democratic standards.	投票必须自由公正，符合各项民主原则。


Moreover, it is essential that the state respects national minorities’ linguistic and cultural rights and promotes social inclusion.	不仅如此，政府尊重少数族裔的语言文化权利并促进社会包容是至关重要的。


European aid should be conditioned on Ukraine’s performance in this area.	欧洲应依据乌克兰在这方面的表现来发放援助。


Second, given that the risk of conflict is greatest in Ukraine’s Russophone east, an OSCE mission should be deployed there to ensure stability, security, and respect for minorities, and to condemn, if necessary, violations of specified commitments.	其次，鉴于乌克兰俄罗斯人（Russophone）聚居的东部发生冲突的风险最大，因此应该派遣欧安组织代表团负责保障稳定、安全、确保尊重少数族裔，并且在必要情况下对违反特定承诺的行为加以谴责。


The third issue ‒ and perhaps the most important ‒ is the pressing need for economic aid.	第三个问题——或许也是最重要的——是迫切需要提供经济援助。


The EU has prepared an €11 billion ($15 billion) aid package, though it is subject to rules and conditions set by the International Monetary Fund, which is contributing part of the total.	欧盟已经准备了110亿欧元（约合150亿美元）的一揽子援助计划，但需要符合国际货币基金制定的条件和规则（国际货币基金组织同时也属于捐款方）。


Though Ukraine’s economy is collapsing, the government maintains excessive spending on subsidies that are incompatible with IMF aid.	尽管乌克兰经济正在濒于崩溃，政府依然违反国际货币基金组织援助的要求在补贴上耗费大笔支出。


At present, for example, the government spends as much as 16% of its budget to subsidize the price of energy for every citizen.	例如到目前为止，政府预算的高达16%被用于补贴民用能源价格。


Russia will not skimp on spending after annexing Crimea, and Crimeans will benefit from that aid and access to cheap energy.	吞并克里米亚后俄国不会在援助问题上有丝毫吝啬，而援助和廉价能源将惠及克里米亚。


Though the tourism industry is likely to be moribund for some time, Russian subsidies may leave Crimeans relatively better off, especially from the perspective of their ethnic kin in eastern Ukraine.	虽然旅游业可能在一段时间内奄奄一息，但特别是相比东乌克兰族人，俄国人的补贴会让克里米亚人的日子相对好过。


EU and Western aid packages will need to take this into account.	欧盟和西方的一揽子援助计划需要把上述因素纳入考量的范畴。


The problem of Crimea will not be resolved quickly.	克里米亚问题不会很快得到解决。


Though Putin declared in his annexation speech that Crimea is an “inseparable part” of Russia, his behavior will turn against him.	虽然普京在吞并演说中宣告克里米亚是俄罗斯“不可分割的组成部分”，但他的所作所为将会带来后果。


He and Russia will suffer international isolation, while Ukrainians are likely to become even more insistent on choosing their own path.	他和俄罗斯将在国际上遭到孤立，而乌克兰则很可能更加坚决地选择自己的道路。


The Long Road to Agreement with Iran	与伊朗达成协议之路漫漫


MADRID – The latest round of negotiations in Geneva between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany) has inspired cautious optimism.	马德里—最新一轮伊朗和P5+1（联合国安理会五大常任理事国加上德国）日内瓦谈判让人们感到谨慎乐观。


A window of opportunity to reach agreement on Iran’s nuclear program appears to have opened.	通往伊朗核计划协议的机会窗口似乎已经开启。


Although the details of the meeting are not public, its relative success is clear, as the parties are to reconvene on November 7-8.	尽管会谈的细节尚未公布，但其相对成功已显而易见，各方将在11月7—8日再次会晤。


Rapprochement between Iran and the West – above all between Iran and the United States – would have positive geostrategic consequences across the Middle East.	伊朗和西方——首先是伊朗和美国——重新举行会晤将给整个中东地区带来积极的地缘战略影响。


Iran has a long way to go, of course, to bring about permanent improvement in its relations with the West; but what Iran needs to do is not the only impediment.	当然，要让伊朗实现与西方关系的永久改进还有很长的路要走； 但障碍并非完全来自伊朗。


Other strategic actors must also be taken into account.	其他战略行动方也有责任。


Without a doubt, Israel will be a major obstacle to reaching an agreement.	毫无疑问，以色列将成为达成协议的一大障碍。


At the very moment when negotiations were beginning in Geneva, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said in the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) that the possibility of a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could not yet be ruled out.	就在日内瓦谈判开始举行的时候，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在以色列议会说，不能排除对伊朗核设施采取先发制人打击的可能。


Netanyahu has made Iran’s nuclear program his highest foreign-policy priority.	内塔尼亚胡将伊朗核计划作为最高级别外交政策优先项。


He is suspicious of Iran’s intentions and wants its nuclear power plants to be completely dismantled.	他对伊朗的目的颇为狐疑，希望彻底拆除伊朗的核电厂。


The fear is that so long as Iran maintains residual nuclear capacity – even for civilian use – it could develop atomic arms that would threaten Israel.	内塔尼亚胡担心，只要伊朗保有残留的核能力——即使只是出于民用——就有助于其开发威胁以色列安全的原子弹。


As Netanyahu made clear at the United Nations General Assembly on October 1, Israeli officials do not trust Iran’s new government to change course.	内塔尼亚胡在10月1日的联合国大会上明确指出，以色列官员不相信伊朗的新政府会改变策略。


But Israel is not alone.	但伊斯兰不是唯一的障碍。


Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, the regional power competing most directly with Shia Iran for regional influence, feels left out by the incipient rapprochement with the Islamic Republic, to the point of refusing a seat on the United Nations Security Council to express its leaders’ anger.	逊尼派统治的沙特——它是什叶派伊朗在地区影响力上最直接的地区竞争强手——因为西方与伊朗伊斯兰共和国实现初步缓和而备感失落，以至于拒绝出任联合国安理会理事国以表达其领导人的愤怒。


Even in the days of the Shah, the Kingdom feared that a strong Iran might become the dominant regional power.	即使在伊朗王国时期，沙特王国也担心强大的伊朗会成为地区强国。


Heir to the historic Persian Empire, Iran has the region’s second-largest GDP and population (behind Saudi Arabia and Egypt, respectively), and Saudi Arabia worries that a possible agreement – resulting in sanctions being lifted – would allow Iran to revive its economy and extend its influence.	作为历史上波斯帝国的继承者，伊朗拥有地区第二大GDP和人口规模（分别仅次于沙特和埃及），而沙特担心可能形成的协议——将造成取消制裁——会让伊朗重振经济、扩大影响力。


This is not the Saudi-US alliance’s finest hour.	这绝不是沙特-美国联盟的美好时刻。


The falling out over Iran follows America’s refusal to bomb Syria (another Saudi rival in the region) and its blessing of the removal in 2011 of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (an important Saudi ally).	在伊朗之前，美国拒绝轰炸叙利亚（沙特在中东地区的另一大对手），还在2011年祝福了前埃及总统穆巴拉克的下台（沙特的重要盟友）。


Saudi Arabia seeks the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and believes that America’s agreement with Russia to destroy the Assad regime’s chemical weapons amounts to renunciation of that goal.	沙特寻求推翻叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德，并认为美国与俄罗斯达成的摧毁巴沙尔化学武库的协议会让这一目标无法实现。


As a result, the Saudis are now the largest financial backer of the Syrian rebels (and one of the main supporters of the Egyptian Army following its removal in July of Mubarak’s democratically elected successor, Mohamed Morsi).	因此，沙特现在成为叙利亚叛军的最大财政支持者（在埃及军队于7月推翻穆巴拉克的民选继任者穆尔西后，沙特又成为埃及军队的主要支持者之一）。


For the West, however, the most urgent goal should be to put an end to the conflict in Syria.	但是，对西方来说，最紧迫的目标应该是结束叙利亚冲突。


Too many people have already died in what has become the worst war of this century.	太多的人死于这场已经演变为新世纪最严重战争的冲突。


Iran and Russia are the Assad regime’s two main allies and the only external actors able to bring about a change of attitude in Damascus.	伊朗和俄罗斯是巴沙尔政权的两大主要盟友，也是仅有的两个能够改变大马士���态度的外部行动方。


The Geneva II talks on Syria are tentatively set to be held on November 23, though Lakhdar Brahimi, Joint Special Representative of the UN and the Arab League for Syria, has already expressed doubts about the suitability of the meeting in the absence of credible representatives of opposition forces.	叙利亚问题的日内瓦II谈判初定于11月23日召开，尽管联合国和阿盟叙利亚特别代表布拉希米（Lakhdar Brahimi）对于在可信任的反对派势力代表缺席的情况下会晤是否合适表示了质疑。


Saudi Arabia is deeply hostile to Geneva II, because formal diplomatic talks with the Assad regime imply de facto recognition that it retains legitimacy.	沙特强烈反对日内瓦II谈判，因为与巴沙尔政权的正式外交对话意味着事实承认其保有合法性。


For the Saudis, the only acceptable solution starts with the resignation of Assad and his government, while Geneva II envisages a transitional government in which all of the parties are represented.	对沙特来说，唯一可接受的方案必须以巴沙尔及其政府的辞职为出发点，而日内瓦II构想的过渡政府将包括所有各方的代表。


American policymakers have another major difficulty: the US Congress.	美国决策者还有另一个大难题：美国国会。


The last-minute agreement to raise the US debt ceiling and reopen the government has left Republican Party extremists in a weakened position, while President Barack Obama has emerged strengthened.	最后时刻就美国债务上限达成一致并使政府重新开门让共和党极端分子处于不利地位，而总统奥巴马则拥有了优势。


But the episode sets a dangerous precedent.	但这一事件树立了危险的先例。


Any conceivable agreement with Iran would involve lifting economic sanctions, which would require legislative approval – thus making a proposed deal vulnerable to congressional near-sightedness.	不管与伊朗达成什么协议，都会包括放松经济制裁，而这需要立法机构批准——因此计划中的协议极有可能因为国会的短视而夭折。


For the US, a concomitant problem is that Secretary of State John Kerry has made peace between Israel and Palestine a high priority.	对美国来说，还有一个伴生问题，即国务卿克里已经将以色列和巴基斯坦和平列为高级优先事项。


It remains to be seen how Kerry manages to balance the negotiations so that Israeli pressure on the US with respect to Iran does not ruin efforts to achieve peace between Israelis and Palestinians.	克里如何平衡诸多谈判以使以色列在伊朗问题上给美国带来的压力不会毁掉促进以巴和平的努力还有待观察。


But if Iran and the West reach an agreement, it will be very difficult for Israel to remain on the sideline.	但如果伊朗和西方达成协议，以色列将很难袖手旁观。


Europe, for its part, has a good opportunity to vindicate itself by committing to a united, coherent, and effective foreign policy.	至于欧洲，获得了一次证明自己的良机——通过致力于统一、一致且有效的对外政策。


The European Union, now through High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, has always been a key actor in the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1.	欧盟——目前通过外交事务和安全政策高级代表阿什顿（Catherine Ashton）——一直是伊朗和P5+1谈判的重要行动方。


Ashton has the confidence of all the parties.	阿什顿的信心不亚于任何一方。


It is important for the EU to be agile and maintain close coordination with the US.	对欧盟来说，保持灵活并与美国密切合作十分重要。


When the time comes to lift the sanctions, Europe must coordinate closely with the US in order to maximize the move’s effectiveness.	当需要放松制裁时，欧洲必须与美国紧密合作以实现这一动作效果的最大化。


Negotiation and diplomacy are the only sure way to resolve the standoff with Iran over its nuclear program.	谈判和外交是打破与伊朗在其核计划问题上的僵局的唯一确定的办法。


Another conflict in the Middle East is the worst option.	在中东开启新冲突是最坏的选择。


But seizing today’s unique opportunity with Iran demands long-term vision from all parties.	但抓住今天的独特机会解决伊朗问题需要各方的长远眼光。


National interests must be placed above electoral considerations.	国家利益必须置于选举考虑之上。


The window for negotiation is open; it will not remain so indefinitely.	谈判窗口已经打开； 但不会无限期地保持打开状态。


The Gallic Heart of Europe	欧洲的高卢心


MADRID ‒ Europe needs a France that is proud, prosperous, and able to overcome its gloomy suspicions.	马德里—欧洲需要一个骄傲、繁荣、能够战胜悲观怀疑的法国。


We need the great country that was and will be – the France that inspired the entire world with its revolution, culture, and values.	我们需要这个曾经伟大、将来也伟大的国家——一个用革命、文化和价值启发全世界的法国。


Alain Peyrefitte, the scholar, politician, and confidant of Charles de Gaulle, said that “without Europe, France will be nothing”; but, without France, Europe, too, would be nothing.	学者、政治家、戴高乐的密友阿兰·佩雷菲特（Alain Peyrefitte）说，“没有欧洲，法国将一无是处，”但是，没有法国，欧洲也将一无是处。


In this year of anniversaries, it is worth reflecting on France’s future.	今年的纪念日值得我们深思法国的未来。


On July 14, France’s national holiday, which this year marked the 225th anniversary of the storming of the Bastille, Algerian soldiers paraded down the Champs-Élysées for the first time since Algeria’s war for independence a half-century ago, a moving symbol of historic transcendence.	7月14日是法国国庆节，也是攻占巴士底狱225周年纪念日。 这一点，阿尔及利亚士兵在半个世纪前的阿尔及利亚独立战争后第一次参加了香榭丽舍大街游行，这是历史性超越的活的象征。


It has also been one hundred years since the outbreak of the First World War, and 25 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall quickly led to German reunification.	今年也是第一次世界大战爆发100周年，以及迅速带来德国重新统一的柏林墙倒塌25周年。


Europe has changed much since then.	自那时以来，欧洲改变了很多。


Twenty-five years ago, France and the Federal Republic of Germany had similar populations of about 60 million inhabitants (like Italy and the United Kingdom).	二十五年前，法国和联邦德国人口相当，都拥有约6,000万居民（意大利和英国也是如此）。


German reunification added more than 16 million new citizens from the former East Germany, making the enlarged Federal Republic the most populous country in the European Union by far.	德国重新统一让它增加了来自东德的1,600多万公民，扩大后的德国成为欧盟人口最多的国家。


This upset the balance of the Franco-German axis around which the EU as a whole had long turned.	这破坏了长期作为欧盟整体支柱的法德轴心。


To avoid negative political consequences, Germany agreed to be underrepresented in weighted voting on EU matters – an imbalance in its own right that was not substantially corrected until the Lisbon Treaty entered into effect in 2009.	为了避免消极的整治结果，德国同意削减其在欧盟事务上的投票权重，这一不平衡直到2009年里斯本条约（Lisbon Treaty）生效后才得到纠正。


Over time, and in a process accentuated by the recent economic crisis, size and economic might meant that Germany began to set the tempo of European affairs.	随着时间的推移，在因最近的经济危机而大受关注的过程中，规模和经济实力让德国开始主导欧洲事务的基调。


Today, Germany has clearly become the point of reference for shaping policy on the most important issues facing the EU.	如今，德国显然已成为欧盟在为其所面临的最重要问题制定政策时的参照点。


But the logic of how Europe was constructed requires that France complement Germany – and now that other major EU countries, including Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Poland, do so as well.	但欧洲的构建逻辑要求法国来补充德国——现在还需要其他主要欧盟国家的补充，包括意大利、西班牙、英国和波兰。


Indeed, today’s Europe can no longer be the two-country affair – if it ever was that ‒ of 30 years ago.	事实上，今天的欧洲不可能是两个国家的事务——如果说30年前是如此的话。


But, for many of the EU member states, France remains a model.	但是，对很多欧盟成员国来说，法国仍是榜样。


So when France suffers, Europe suffers.	因此，当法国遭遇不幸时，欧洲也一损俱损。


Healing Europe and healing France are two parts of the same equation, with the same unknowns in play.	欧洲康复和法国康复是同一个问题的两个部分，由同样的未知量起作用。


Because of its very relevance, historical heft, and cultural baggage, France mistrusts the changes taking place around it – as though the weight of its nationhood were keeping it from taking flight and narrowing its horizons.	正因其相关性、历史重要性和厚重的文化，法国不信任周边所发生的变化——尽管其国家地位保证了它不会远离欧洲而去，也不会自缩阵线。


But no country today can remain isolated from globalization, tame it, or lead it alone.	但当今世界没有一个国家可以隔离于全球化之外、驯服全球化或单枪匹马领导全球化。


So France must look again to Europe, which in turn needs both France and Germany if it is to be balanced and successful.	因此法国必须再一次着眼欧洲，而欧洲若想实现平衡和成功，反过来也需要法国和德国。


France is still burdened by the consequences of its “no” vote in 2005 on the proposed European Constitution – clearly not its finest hour.	法国仍有一个包袱，这是其  2005年投票否决欧洲宪法的结果——显然这个时间相当尴尬。


Ten years on, France should not be afraid of exchanging some of its sovereignty for political union in Europe.	十年来，法国本不需要害怕牺牲一些主权换取欧洲的政治统一。


On the contrary, France should be one of the leaders of that effort, adding its voice and centrality as a country halfway between Europe’s north and south and acting as a model for many other countries on social issues.	相反，法国应该是这一方向的领导者之一，作为位于北欧和南欧之间的国家发出声音，增加欧洲政治统一的确定性，并未其他多个国家树立社会问题的榜样。


Just as Germany took a step forward by giving up its Deutshce Mark in favor of the euro, France must evolve beyond the classical framework of the nation-state.	正如德国为了欧元而放弃了德国马克，法国必须超越民族国家的古典框架。


As Germany’s economic preponderance translates into greater political power, it becomes increasingly important to supplement this with France’s unique point of view.	随着德国的经济优势转换为更大的��治实力，用法国的独特观念作为补充正变得日益重要。


This is particularly true in view of today’s unstoppable progress toward closer economic integration, which will lead, happily or haphazardly, to greater political integration.	考虑到当今世界迈向更紧密的经济一体化的潮流不可阻挡——并且必将随之带来愉快的或肆意的政治一体化深化——这一点尤其重要。


France’s solid economic foundation furnishes it with the means to face up to the reforms that it urgently needs.	法国拥有扎实的经济基础，这为它提供了直面其所急需的改革的办法。


Its per capita income is more than €30,000 ($40,000) per year, and it has a strong welfare state and an educated society.	法国年人均收入高达30,000欧元以上，并且拥有强大的福利国家和受过良好教育的社会。


Yet its GDP growth is stagnant.	但其GDP 增长停滞不前。


Europe and the world cannot afford to allow dynamic France to succumb to static France, the France that resists all change.	欧洲和世界不能放任动态的法国沦落为静态的法国，拒绝一切变化的法国。


For example, France’s cooperation on the construction of a common European market for energy is crucial for Spain; indeed, this relationship could be enormously beneficial both for France and all of Europe.	比如，对西班牙而言，在建设共同欧洲能源市场方面，法国的合作至关重要； 事实上，这一关系能够为法国和全欧洲带来巨大的好处。


France should consider Europe its own.	法国应该考虑它自己的欧洲。


French republican values find their expression in the EU.	法国的共和价值（republican values）在欧洲留下了印记。


Liberty, equality, and fraternity are enemies of the nationalist, extremist, and europhobic visions benighting Europe today.	自由、平等和博爱是如今让欧洲陷入黑暗的民族主义、极端主义和恐欧主义的敌人。


These dark visions must be met with France’s commitment to integration, the rule of law, and secularism.	这些邪恶意识形态必须用法国对一体化、法治精神和世俗主义的奉献来制衡。


France has taken on important international commitments recently that all must appreciate, with the hope that France’s political, economic, and social reawakening continues.	最近，法国做出了重要的国际贡献，所有人都心怀感激，并希望法国的政治、经济和社会觉醒能继续下去。


There should be no U-turn in the course toward modernization, especially now, when political forces that exploit fear and hatred are on the rise, betraying republican values.	通往现代化的道路不应该出现U型转弯，特别是在当下利用恐慌和憎恨的政治力量正在崛起、与共和价值渐行渐远的时刻。


This is the moment for France, along with the rest of Europe, to overcome its pessimism, doubt, and mistrust.	这是法国与欧洲其他国家携手并进、克服悲观、怀疑和不信任的时刻。


Revolutionary Patience	革命的耐心


MADRID – On December 17, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia.	马德里—2010年12月17日，穆罕默德·博阿齐齐（Mohamed Bouazizi）在突尼斯西迪布吉德（Sidi Bouzid）自焚。


Within weeks, the popular revolt triggered by Bouazizi’s act had spread far beyond Tunisia, engulfing much of the Arab world.	几周内，由此引发的民变就溢出了突尼斯、席卷了阿拉伯世界多国。


In Europe, Ukraine and other troubled countries, such as Bosnia, began their long and still incomplete transitions to democracy a quarter-century ago.	在欧洲，乌克兰和波斯尼亚等其他麻烦国在四分之一个世纪前就开始了漫长但至今仍未结束的民主转型。


The Arab world, by contrast, has logged a mere three years of transition – the blink of an eye in historical terms.	相反，阿拉伯世界只经历了短短三年的转型——在历史的长河中，只不过是一瞬间。


Still, there have already been significant changes, and the region is advancing – though the destination remains unknown.	但是，阿拉伯世界已经有了很大的改变，该地区正在进步，尽管前途仍然不明。


As in other parts of the world, Arab countries need time to attain the democracy and pluralism their peoples seek.	和世界其他地区一样，阿拉伯国家需要时间来获得其人民所寻找的民主和多元主义。


They will achieve their goals – but not in a mere three years.	他们将实现他们的目标——但决不是在仅仅三年之后。


In fact, events in today’s Middle East continue to be shaped by the radical changes brought about after World War I. Previously, most Arabs had been grouped together under various caliphates.	事实上，如今的中东事件仍受第一次世界大战后所发生的剧烈变化的影响。 早前，大部分阿拉伯人生活在各种伊斯兰教国王统治之下。


After the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in 1923, two nation-states (Iran and Turkey) emerged, while the Arabs were distributed among 22 new countries, generally under British or French colonial domination.	1923年奥斯曼帝国解体后崛起了两个民族国家（伊朗和土耳其），而阿拉伯人组成了22个新国家，这些国家大体上是根据英国和法国的殖民地划分的。


Once the colonies had achieved independence – Saudi Arabia, today a Sunni regional power, was created in 1932 – a new attempt was made to unite the Arab nation by means of the political Islam that emerged in the 1920’s in response to the fall of the Ottoman Caliphate.	这些殖民地赢得独立后——今天的逊尼派地区大国沙特阿拉伯成立于1932年——20世纪20年代应奥斯曼帝国解体而生的政治伊斯兰教便成为统一阿拉伯民族的新方式。


The phenomenon took many forms, including the Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928.	政治伊斯兰教形式多种多样，其中就包括1928年成立的穆斯林兄弟会（Muslin Brotherhood）。


At the same time, efforts at nation-building along secular lines were reflected in Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s pan-Arabism and the Syrian Baath Party, resulting in the establishment of the United Arab Republic, a union between Egypt and Syria that lasted from 1958 to 1961.	与此同时，世俗立国运动则反映在埃及总统纳赛尔（Gamal Abdel Nasser）的泛阿拉伯主义和叙利亚阿拉伯复兴党（Baath Party）中，其成果是阿拉伯联合共和国（United Arab Republic，1958—1961年存在的埃及和叙利亚组成的联盟）的成立。


A half-century later, the simultaneous revolts in the Arab world were the result of neither political tendency, instead reflecting broad popular rejection of dysfunctional and corrupt authoritarian governments.	半个世纪后，阿拉伯世界再次爆发同步革命，这些革命并非政治伊斯兰教和世俗立国运动的产物，而是反映了民众拒绝接受失职腐败的集权政府。


But, with Syria immersed in a brutal civil war that has claimed more than 130,000 lives already, Libya on the verge of collapse, and Egypt returning power to the army and proscribing the Muslim Brotherhood, Tunisia has been the only success.	但是，如今叙利亚陷入了野蛮内战并已经造成130,000多人死亡，利比亚正处于崩溃边缘，埃及权力也回归军方并取缔了穆斯林兄弟会，突尼斯成了唯一的成功例子。


Tunisia adopted its new constitution on January 27, thus clearing the way for what will be the most secular and fairest elections in any of the region’s countries.	1月27日，突尼斯通过了新宪法，从而为阿拉伯国家最世俗、最公正的选举扫清了道路。


The new constitution is the most modern in the Arab world, the fruit of a non-violent transition.	新宪法是阿拉伯世界中最现代的宪法，也是非暴力转型的结晶。


With a small, well-educated population, Tunisia has become the exception.	人口较少、教育程度较高的突尼斯已成为阿拉伯世界的例外。


Egypt’s government, by banning the Muslim Brotherhood, has taken the country backward since the military coup that overthrew President Mohamed Morsi last July.	埃及政府取缔了穆斯林兄弟会，自���年7月军事政变推翻总统穆尔西以来，埃及一直在倒退。


The Egyptian process, however, should not be considered merely a return to the pre-2011 status quo; rather, developments constitute what could be characterized as an ascending spiral that, while turning back on itself, nevertheless advances.	但是，埃及事件的过程不应该简单地认为是回到了2011年前的状态； 相反，埃及的发展趋势可以看成是一个上升螺旋，虽有倒退但总体在前进。


The generational split within Egypt is evident: social mobilization has given young Egyptians valuable political experience, and this represents a key difference from the three decades of former President Hosni Mubarak’s rule.	埃及内部的代际分歧是显而易见的：社会流动性给了埃及青年宝贵的政治经验，而这也构成了与前总统穆巴拉克三十年统治期的一个关键不同点。


The same could be said of Syria, though the spiral there has been an unremittingly downward one, and any reversal remains blocked, particularly since the failure of the second round of peace negotiations in Geneva.	叙利亚也是如此，尽管叙利亚局势的螺旋毫无疑问是一个下降螺旋，任何反抗都遭到了镇压，特别是在日内瓦第二轮和平谈判失败后。


More generally, lack of pluralism and the inability to share power are holding back the transitions.	更一般地说，缺少多元性以及无法分享权力拖累了转型。


With the exception of Tunisia, this can be seen to varying degrees in all of the affected countries.	除了突尼斯，所有受影响国家都或多或少地具备这一特点。


In Egypt, both the army – whether under Mubarak or Field Marshal Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi – and the Islamists have demonstrated that they want all power for themselves.	在埃及，军方（不管是穆巴拉克还是西西（Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi）陆军元帅治下）和伊斯兰教徒都表现出想要大权尽揽。


Political pluralism cannot be imposed.	政治多元主义是无法强加的。


Societies must demand it and build the lasting institutions needed to preserve it.	社会必须有对政治多元主义的需求，并且建立和维持保护政治多元主义所需要的制度。


This process can take many years, making it crucial not to lose historical perspective.	这一过程可能维持多年，因此不失去历史视角十分关键。


The situation in each country was different when the revolts began.	每个国家在革命爆发时的状况都各不相同。


Countries with homogenous societies, such as Tunisia, have suffered only minimal violence, unlike socially heterogonous countries, such as Syria.	突尼斯这样的社会同质的国家只经历了最低限度的暴力，这和叙利亚等社会异质的国家不同。


Nor are there any consolidated regional structures to which the transition countries can adhere; and there are few local models – with the exception of Turkey, for example – that can be used to help democracy and pluralism take root.	阿拉伯世界也没有稳固的地区结构可供转型国家倚赖； 可用于推进民主和多元主义的地方模式——比如作为例外的土耳其——也几乎不存在。


Indeed, the context in which these transitions were set in motion was – and remains –unfavorable compared to those taking place in Europe.	事实上，与欧洲相比，这些转型所处的环境是——并且一直是——不利的。


Unlike the Arab countries, Eastern Europe and the Balkans benefited from a common starting point and a common path forward: all are part of a continent that has taken historic steps toward integration since World War II.	与阿拉伯国家不同，东欧和巴尔干国家有一个优势，它们拥有共同的起点和共同的前进道路：它们都处在二战后走向一体化的历史进程的大陆中。


That has given them a common destination as well, both politically (accession to the European Union) and in terms of their security (through NATO).	这给了它们同样的命运，不管是政治上（加入欧盟）还是安全上（通过北约）。


But the situations in Bosnia and Ukraine are still very fluid.	但波斯尼亚和乌克兰转型仍然很不稳定。


Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and 23 years after the disintegration of Yugoslavia, the post-communist transition is still incomplete.	柏林墙的倒塌已经过去了二十五年，南斯拉夫解体也已经过去了二十三年，但后共产主义转型仍然没有完成。


We cannot expect results in the Middle East in three years that have not been achieved in Europe in a quarter-century.	我们无法期待中东可以在三年的时间里产生欧洲半个世纪都没有实现的结果。


Despite the backsliding in Egypt and the intolerable violence in Syria, the region is evolving at its own pace in a complex, changing, and unstable geopolitical context.	尽管埃及在倒退，叙利亚在发生令人无法容忍的暴力，但该地区仍然在一个复杂、变化、不稳定的地缘政治环境中以自己的节奏发展着。


A patient strategy and an unwavering dedication to pluralism are fundamental, whether in Kyiv or Cairo.	迈向多元主义的耐心的战略和坚定的决心是至关重要的，不管是在基辅还是在开罗。


Saving the House	拯救家园


MADRID – A crack in a house’s foundation, if not repaired, can continue to grow, ultimately destabilizing the structure and rendering it uninhabitable.	马德里—如果房子地基出现裂缝而不加修补，裂缝就会不断扩大，最终破坏房屋结构，使其无法居住。


Its occupants must then move to another home.	此时，住户就必须搬到别的房子里。


But the world’s population cannot move somewhere else.	但世界人口不可能搬到别处去。


Houses, while not cheap, are replaceable; our planet is not.	房子尽管很贵，仍然是可换的； 但地球不行。


Climate change, as we have known for years, is one such crack in the foundation.	多年前我们就知道，气候变化就是地球这幢房子地基上的裂缝。


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been studying the phenomenon since 1988.	国际气候变化委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC）自1988年以来就在研究这一现象。


Twenty-two years ago, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was unveiled; today, 195 countries have agreed to prevent dangerous global warming by limiting the increase in global temperature to 2⁰C.	二十二年前，联合国气候变化框架公约（Framework Convention on Climate Change，UNFCCC）诞生； 如今，195个国家同意通过限制全球升温幅度在2℃内以防止危险的全球变暖。


Yet we continue along our perilous path.	但我们仍走在危险的老路上。


The IPCC has calculated that we are hurtling toward temperature rises of 3.7⁰C to 4.8⁰C by the end of the century.	IPCC计算，到本世纪末，气温可能大幅上升3. 7至4.


The crack is widening, and some of the world’s inhabitants – particularly the most vulnerable – are already seeing the water seep in.	8℃。 裂缝正在扩大，而一些世界居民——特别是最脆弱群体——已在目睹水淹家园。


Who is responsible, and who should pay to stop the warming?	谁应该对此负责，谁应该为停止变暖买单？


These questions have dominated international discussion and debate about climate change from the start.	这些问题从一开始就主导了气候变化的国际讨论和争议。


Distinguishing between causal and remedial responsibility is crucial, and the UNFCCC’s chief document recognizes common but differentiated responsibilities, as well as respective capabilities.	区分肇事和补救责任是很重要的，UNFCCC主条款承认各国共同但差异化的责任和各自的能力。


As the sociologist Claus Offe recently pointed out, it is one thing to say who is to blame for the damage, and quite another to determine who can or should take responsibility for solving the problem.	社会学家克劳斯·奥菲（Claus Offe）最近指出，认清伤害责任是一回事，确定谁能够或应该为解决问题负责是完全不同的另一回事。


This endless search for the true locus of responsibility (both causal and remedial) is not restricted to the realm of climate change.	没完没了地追究责任的真正元凶（不管是肇事责任还是补救责任）并不是气候变化领域独有的现象。


In a globalized world, for example, citizens of nation-states might wonder (as many have) why a financial crisis a hemisphere away causes their countries’ banks to collapse abruptly.	比如，在全球化的世界中，民族国家的公民可能会困惑（许多人确实如此），为何半个地球之外的金融危机会让他们国家的银行突然间倒闭。


In Europe, where countries have banded together since the end of World War II, yielding some precious individual sovereignty in order to construct a more stable whole, the struggles of the common currency have instilled fear in citizens’ hearts – and in their votes.	在欧洲，二战结束后各国就团结在一起，牺牲了一些宝贵的主权以构建更加稳定的整体，但共同货币的步履维艰给欧洲人民——和他们的选票——注入了恐慌。


In the shift from government to governance, we have built a matrix of actors – private and public, at local, national, and supra-national levels – to address social and economic problems.	在从政府到治理的转变中，我们建立了一系列行动方——有公共的，也有私人的，有地方的、国家的，也有超国家的——以解决社会和经济问题。


But in this intricate and ever-changing institutional universe, we often no longer know who is in control.	但在复杂且不断变化的机构环境中，我们通常无法知道谁在掌控。


This issue comes to the fore most frequently in the case of shared global problems, such as climate change.	这一问题在共同全球问题上最为突出，比如气候变化。


Simply put, the international order must be reformed and adapted to the economic rise of countries like India and China.	简言之，必须改革全球秩序，适应印度和中国等国家的经济崛起。


The recent agreement among the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to establish a New Development Bank and a contingent reserve arrangement is a clear signal of this thirst for change.	最近金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）签署协议成立新开发银行和应急储备安排就是渴望变化的清晰信号。


But a wholesale structural overhaul of the global economy’s institutional architecture is improbable, regardless of the context.	但即使在这一环境下，对全球经济的机构结构进行彻底改造可能性仍然很低。


In the interim, creativity is key.	在此期间，创新是关键。


The best solutions are those that build on the current structure’s strongest points.	最佳方案必须以当前结构的最强环节为基础。


Top-down governance approaches have been useful, showing the willingness of some of the historical greenhouse-gas emitters to accept remedial responsibility.	自上而下的治理方针是有效的，一些温室气体历史排放大国愿意接受补救责任。


The European Union, for example, has affirmed its commitment to the UNFCCC’s Kyoto Protocol, the only international climate-change treaty to date to include binding emissions-reduction targets.	比如，欧盟重申了其对UNFCCC京都议定书（Kyoto Protocol，迄今为止唯一一个包含约束性减排目标的国际气候变化条约）的承诺。


But the most recent UNFCCC summits have revealed the limits of this approach.	但最近的UNFCCC峰会暴露出这一方针的局限性。


So, as the world prepares for the UNFCCC summit in Paris in 2015, preceded by the high-level summit that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will convene in New York this September, it will be worthwhile to examine and export creative initiatives emerging from the bottom-up.	因此，在全世界准备UNFCCC 2015年巴黎峰会以及联合国秘书长潘基文（Ban Ki-moon）准备在今年9月在纽约召开的高规格峰会之际，考察和建议自下而上的创新性方案是大有裨益的。


China, for one, has launched seven pilot emissions-trading schemes, covering a quarter-billion people – the second-largest such effort in the world (after the EU).	比如，中国实施了覆盖2. 5亿人的七项试验性排放交易机制，是全球第二大规模的方案（仅次于欧盟）。


In Uganda, the city of Kampala is working to light its streets using solar power.	在乌干达，坎帕拉市正在着手采用太阳能路灯。


Many small island states, such as Tuvalu, are setting an important example by rapidly pursuing the goal of carbon-neutrality.	图瓦卢等许多内陆小国也树立了重要的榜样，r突飞猛进地追求碳中立（carbon-neutrality）目标。


One of the UNFCCC’s top priorities is to secure financing to scale up developing countries’ mitigation and adaptation efforts, thereby mobilizing the capacity and goodwill of historical emitters to catalyze further innovation.	UNFCCC的最紧迫任务之一是确保发展中国家扩大减排和改造规模的融资，从而动员历史排放国的能力和意愿刺激进一步创新。


Scientists worldwide are working on solutions; indeed, only science will help us to proceed effectively, just as it has enabled living standards in most of the world to rise above subsistence levels.	全球科学家正在致力于解决方案； 事实上，唯有科学能帮助我们有效推进，正如科学让世界大部分地区生活追平提高到生存水平之上。


At this critical point, when the fossil fuels that have brought us so much prosperity could lead to our demise, it is again technological innovation that can steer us onto a better path.	在这个临界点上，当给我们带来如此繁荣的化石燃料开始导致我们走向毁灭时，也只有科技创新能把我们带上更好的道路。


In the case of climate change, only creativity, innovation, responsibility, and political will can enable us to save our common house.	在气候变化问题上，只有创造力、创新、责任和政治意愿能让我们拯救我们共同的家园。


We need to open our eyes, recognize the crack in the foundation, and face our responsibility to fix it.	我们需要睁开眼睛，发现地基上的裂缝，直面修补裂缝的责任。


In the first quarter of 2015, governments should declare their countries’ intended contributions to that effort, thereby boosting confidence and accelerating progress en route to Paris.	2015年第一季度，各国政府应该宣布各自计划为这一责任做出什么贡献，以提振信心，加快通往巴黎的进程。


Meanwhile, we should be on the lookout for potential innovations and invest in research and development wherever that potential lies.	与此同时，我们应该着眼于潜在创新，投资于所有有潜力的研发行动。


Grave New World	暗淡新世界


MADRID – Global transformations are nothing new.	马德里—全球转型并非新鲜事。


But, with globalization and technological advancements, the pace and scale of such transformations have accelerated considerably.	但是，随着全球化和技术进步，这些转型的速度和规模显著增加。


In the coming decades, this trend will only intensify – bringing with it significant potential for instability.	在未来几十年中，这一趋势还会加强，巨大的动荡可能也随之而至。


It has been more than 20 years since Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Kuwait, prompting the near-unanimous adoption of United Nations Security Council resolutions demanding the withdrawal of Iraqi forces.	20多年前，萨达姆·侯赛因的伊拉克入侵科威特，结果联合国安理会几乎全体一致地通过决议，要求伊拉克撤军。


When Saddam defied the resolutions, a 34-country coalition, supporting the United States-led air offensive known as Operation Desert Storm, drove his troops out of Kuwait.	萨达姆拒绝接受这一决议，于是34个国家组成联军支持美国所领导的被称为“沙漠风暴行动”的空中打击，将萨达姆军队逐出了科威特。


That was in 1991, when the Soviet Union’s collapse had left the US as the world’s only superpower.	这是1991年，苏联已经解体，美国成为世界唯一的超级大国。


But that is no longer the case – a reality that is reflected in the international community’s muddled responses to similar territorial breaches today.	但今时已不同往日，如今国际社会对于类似的领土入侵反应一片混乱就是明证。


Consider Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea earlier this year.	以今年早些时候俄罗斯入侵和吞并克里米亚为例。


Though the move clearly violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity, 11 countries voted against the UN resolution condemning the action, and 58 countries – including all of the non-Western powers – abstained.	尽管该行动明显侵犯了乌克兰领土完整，但仍有11个国家反对联合国谴责该行动的决议，另有58个国家——包括所有非西方强国——弃权。


Clearly, the global balance of power has changed.	显然，全球实力平衡已经改变。


In international politics, perceptions matter – sometimes even more than reality.	在国际政治中，感觉很重要——有时甚至比现实还要重要。 今天的感觉是美国的单极时代已经结束；


The perception today is that America’s unipolar moment has come to an end; Europe is on the decline; and a new set of powers is rising, bringing their own unique worldviews to global affairs.	欧洲走向衰落； 一系列新强国正在崛起，它们的独特世界观正在左右全球事务。


In a sense, this might seem like a good thing.	从某种意义上说，这似乎是件好事。


More varied perspectives could enrich multilateral processes and generate more comprehensive solutions to global problems.	更多不同角度可以丰富多边进程，为全球问题创造更全面的解决方案。


But this multipolar dynamic also generates instability.	但这一多极动态也带来了动荡。


Though the world is becoming increasingly interconnected, and challenges are no longer confined to national or even regional borders, major powers are increasingly reluctant to assume global responsibilities.	尽管世界变得日益互联，但挑战也不再限于国界甚至地区边界，强国越来越不愿承担全球责任。


Worse, given their frequent unwillingness to accommodate one another’s interests, impasses – even clashes – become likely.	更糟糕的是，由于它们常常不愿意迁就彼此的利益，出现僵局甚至冲突的可能也越来越大。


Strong, effective, and inclusive multilateral institutions can play a vital role in combating this instability and fostering cooperation.	强大、高效、包容的多边机构可以在对抗动荡、促成合作方面起到关键作用。


But even the best-designed structures can achieve little without the political will to resolve conflicts through dialogue.	但如果没有通过对话解决冲突的政治意愿，那么即使是设计最合理的结构也无济于事。


In order to make progress, countries must learn to defend their principles while respecting those of others – and never to lose sight of their shared interests and objectives.	为了取得进展，各国必须学会在捍卫自身原则的同时尊重他国利益——并且永远不要忽视共同利益和目标。


Without such a unified approach, geopolitical stability is diminished.	没有这样一套统一的方针，地缘政治稳定就会收到削弱。


For example, Ukraine has been an independent country since 1991 and is fully integrated into the international system, having ceded its nuclear weapons in 1994 and presided over three sessions of the UN General Assembly.	比如，乌克兰自1991年以来就一直是独立国家，并且充分融入了国际体系，它在1994年放弃了核武器，并且主持过 三次联合国大会。


In failing to craft an adequate response to the Russian invasion, however, the international community pushed Ukraine toward a dark past.	但是，国际社会没有对俄罗斯的入侵采取充分响应，导致乌克兰倒退回了黑暗的过去。


One hopes that the recently concluded Minsk Protocol – which includes 12 provisions, including a cease-fire and a program of economic recovery – succeeds in resolving the conflict.	我们希望最近通过的明斯克协议（Minsk Protocol，���包括停火和经济复苏计划在内的12项内容组成）能成功地解决这场冲突。


In any case, international stability has been compromised – and several more potentially destabilizing developments are on the horizon.	如论如何，国际稳定被妥协所牺牲——更多潜在动荡因素还在发展。


In the developed world, US President Barack Obama’s tenure will soon end.	在发达世界，美国总统奥巴马的任期马上就要结束了。


European politics are, too, undergoing a potentially significant transition, with the new European Commission set to commence operations, against a worrying background of rising nationalism in European Union member states.	欧洲政治也在经历可能的重大转型，新欧盟委员会即将开始运转，它面对的将是欧盟成员国民族主义日益得势的不利局面。


Two leaders who will remain in power for the foreseeable future are Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping – both of whose countries have generated instability in their respective regions.	两位在可以预见的未来将继续执政的领导人是俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平——而这两个国家在各自地区都制造了动荡。


Long before Russia invaded Ukraine, China was engaged in territorial disputes with several of its neighbors, most notably in the East and South China Seas.	远在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前，中国就卷入了与多个邻国的领土纠纷，最令人瞩目的是东海和南海纠纷。


Furthermore, Russia and China are pushing back against traditional Western dominance in multilateral institutions.	此外，俄罗斯和中国也在多边机构中阻击传统西方主宰。