NEW YORK – Twenty-four years ago this month, Soviet hardliners, desperate to stop the country’s nascent democratic transition, arrested Mikhail Gorbachev and declared martial law.	纽约——二十四年前的这个月，苏联的强硬派不顾一切地阻止国内新生的民主过渡，逮捕米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫并宣布戒严。


In response, millions of protesters poured into the streets of Moscow and towns across the Soviet Union.	为此，数以百万计的示威者涌入莫斯科街道和苏联城镇。


Key elements of the army refused to accept the coup, and it soon collapsed – with the Soviet Union soon to follow.	军队的关键力量拒绝接受政变，导致这次政变迅速崩溃——和不久后苏联解体的发生。


Even though economic conditions were dire in the USSR’s final months, people could see the freedoms that were coming and, unlike today, were willing to stand up for them.	虽然苏联最后几个月里的经济条件非常可怕，但人们能够看到自由正在降临，并且和今天不同的是，他们都愿意为自由挺身而出。


Indeed, in the early years of the democratic transition that followed, most post-communist voters did not succumb to the temptation to elect extremists who promised to end the hard times they were enduring.	事实上，在苏联解体后最初几年的民主过渡中，多数后共产主义时代的选民并没有为承诺结束困难时期的极端分子投票。


Instead, they usually chose the most sensible candidate available.	相反，他们选出的候选人往往是最明智的。


Russians, for example, rejected Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a clownish Donald Trump-like nationalist and anti-Semite, in favor of Boris Yeltsin, who had stared down tanks during the failed 1991 coup and recognized that his country’s future lay with democracy and the West.	比方说俄罗斯民众抵制弗拉基米尔·日里诺夫斯基，一位唐纳德·特朗普般滑稽的民族和反犹主义者。 他们拥护叶利钦，后者曾在失败的1991年政变中藐视敌人的坦克，承认国家的未来在于追寻民主和西方。


In Romania, the extremist poet Corneliu Vadim Tudor lost to a succession of corrupt pragmatists, beginning with Ion Iliescu, who had led the ouster of the country’s last communist leader, Nicolae Ceaușescu.	罗马尼亚极端主义诗人科尔内留·瓦迪姆·图多尔输给了一系列腐败的实用主义份子，上述实用分子中的第一个是领导推翻该国最后一名共产党领导人齐奥塞斯库的伊利埃斯库。


Since then, the world has been turned upside down.	自那以后，这个世界已经天翻地覆。


As life has gotten easier, with people’s material expectations largely met, voters have increasingly favored neo-autocrats who promise to “protect” the people from this or that threat.	生活越来越容易，民众在物质方面的预期基本得到满足，选民却越来越青睐承诺“保护”民众远离这样或那样威胁的新独裁主义者。


Russian President Vladimir Putin, of course, leads this group, but there are also Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Czech President Miloš Zeman.	当然，俄罗斯总统普京是其中的代表人物，此外还有匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班和捷克总统泽曼。


And the trend extends beyond the former communist countries to include, for example, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.	上述趋势不仅集中在前共产主义国家，还包括土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安。


The French philosopher Jean-François Revel saw the rise of violent dictatorships in the twentieth century as driven by a “totalitarian temptation.”	法国哲学家让 - 弗朗索瓦·何维勒将“极权主义诱惑”视为20世纪暴力专政崛起的驱动因素。


What we are witnessing today is something a bit less sinister – call it an “authoritarian temptation.”	今天摆在我们面前的局面或许没有那么凶险——可以称之为“专制主义诱惑”。


But it is a growing threat not only to democracy, but also to global stability.	但民主和全球稳定所遭受的威胁却越来越严重。


After all, the one thing today’s autocrats have in common with their totalitarian predecessors is contempt for the rule of law, both domestically and internationally.	毕竟，今天的独裁者及其极权主义前辈们的一个共同点就是蔑视国内国际法治。


One cause for this shift toward authoritarianism is that many countries no longer view the United States as a beacon of democracy and a model of stability and prosperity to be emulated.	专制主义转向的重要原因是许多国家不再将美国视为值得仿效的民主灯塔和繁荣稳定的榜样。


Putin’s claim that democratization is actually an American plot “to gain unilateral advantages” resonates with many societies following the disastrous invasion of Iraq and revelations about the National Security Agency’s spying on citizens and leaders worldwide.	在灾难性的入侵伊拉克和国家安全局对世界公民和领袖的暗中监视被无情揭露后，普京称民主化实际上是美国“攫取单边优势”的阴谋的说法得到了越来越多人的认同。


But even before these developments, the Cold War’s winners – and especially the US – were showing a boastfulness that probably alienated many.	但甚至在此之前，冷战的获胜方——尤其是美国——就表现出一种拒人于千里的傲慢自大。


When even allies are treated with disrespect – recall George W. Bush’s infamous shout of “Yo, Blair,” as if then-British Prime Minister Tony Blair were some cowhand – people naturally wonder whether their country, too, is deemed subservient.	当盟友都得不到基本的尊重——记得乔治·W·布什臭名昭著地称呼“哟，布莱尔”，仿佛时任国首相托尼·布莱尔是个什么牧童——人们自然会怀疑自己的国家是否也被美国当作仆从。


Rising “soft” dictators – what the journalist Bobby Ghosh calls authoritarian democrats – have used these feelings of unease and alienation to attract votes.	崛起的“温和”独裁者——也就是记者鲍比·戈什所谓的“独裁民主派”——充分利用了上述不安和疏离感来吸引选票。


Their supporters do not want to be oppressed, but they do want stability and national sovereignty – desires that their leaders fulfill partly by limiting opposition.	他们的支持者不希望受压迫，但却希望稳定和国家主权得到保障——领导人部分通过限制反对派来满足他们的愿望。


Given the reach of today’s mass media and social networks, only a few people must be targeted to cow the rest of society into conforming to the leader’s vision.	由于今天大众媒体和社交网络全覆盖，只要攻击少数人就可以恐吓社会民众服从领袖的目标。


So, instead of building gulags, neo-authoritarians launch criminal cases.	因此，新独裁主义者发起刑事诉讼，而不是修建古拉格。


The defendants range from political opponents and critics in Russia – such as the oil oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the anti-corruption lawyer Alexei Navalny – to independent journalists in Erdoğan’s Turkey.	被告既包括俄罗斯评论家和政治对手——比方说石油寡头霍多尔科夫斯基和反腐律师阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼——也包括埃尔多安治下土耳其的独立记者。


Citizens seem convinced.	民众似乎也愿意买账。


At least 70% of Russians agree with Putin that this kind of “managed democracy” is superior to the chaotic version practiced in the West.	至少有70%的俄罗斯人认同普京的说法，即这种“管理民主”优于一片混乱的西方。


Almost half of Hungary’s citizens find membership in the European Union, whose liberal values Orbán mocks, unnecessary.	几乎半数的匈牙利民众认为欧盟成员国资格（其自由价值观遭到欧尔班的嘲笑）没有必要。


And more than 70% of Turks have a negative view of the US, which Erdoğan blames for the rise of social media (the “worst menace” facing Turkey today – trumping, it seems, even the Islamic State’s deadly attacks in Turkish cities).	超过70%的土耳其人敌视美国，埃尔多安指责后者是社交媒体崛起的始作俑者（社交媒体是土耳其今天面临的“最大威胁”——甚至似乎比伊斯兰国在土耳其城市发动的致命袭击威胁更大）。


When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, people did not understand the link between capitalism and democracy.	1989年柏林墙倒塌时，资本主义与民主间的关系还鲜为人知。


Many wanted a Western lifestyle, with access to the kinds of jobs and goods available in the US, but seemed not to recognize that access to that lifestyle requires increased economic and personal freedom – precisely the kind of freedom that underpins democratic societies.	很多人向往西方的生活方式，希望享受像美国那样的商品和工作机会，但似乎并未意识到那种生活方式需要强化经济和个人自由——也就是支撑民主社会的那种自由。


If, in the current environment, Western powers attempted to point this out to the people of Russia, Hungary, or Turkey, they would likely stoke even greater resentment.	如果现在西方列强试图对俄罗斯、匈牙利或土耳其民众指出这一点，甚至可能会激起更深层次的愤怒。


The better option would be to work on the countries’ leaders.	说服国家领袖将是更好的选择。


If the Putins, Erdoğans, and Orbáns of the world want to continue to benefit economically from the open international system, they cannot simply make up their own rules.	如果普京、埃尔多安和欧尔班希望继续享有开放国际体系提供的经济利益，就不能简单地制定自己的规则。


The power of such an approach can be seen in Russia, where Western sanctions, imposed following Putin’s annexation of Crimea, are the main factor limiting the pro-Russian rebels’ incursion in eastern Ukraine.	在俄罗斯就可以看出这种方法的效力，普京吞并克里米亚后实施的西方制裁限制了亲俄叛军入侵乌克兰东部。


Putin’s efforts to reclaim “great power” status for Russia may find support among his people; but that support will probably dwindle if Russians face the prospect of losing all of the comforts derived from the relatively open economy that their country has had for more than two decades.	普京夺回“大国地位”的努力或许会得到民众的支持； 但如果需要以失去20多年来俄罗斯开放经济所带来的舒适生活为代价，那样的支持可能会不断萎缩。


At a time when more and more Russians are being denied passports to travel outside the country, those tempted by authoritarianism would do well to recall the elementary point made by John F. Kennedy in his Berlin speech in 1963.	在越来越多俄国人拿不到出国签证的情况下，那些专制诱惑的向往者应该好好回顾一下肯尼迪1963年柏林讲话的基本内容。


“Freedom has many difficulties, and democracy is not perfect,” Kennedy said.	“自由面临诸多困难，民主也并非完美无暇。


“But we never had to put up a wall to keep our people in.”	但我们永远不必修建一堵墙挡住人们离去的脚步。 ”


The Solar Price Revolution	太阳能价格革命


POTSDAM – A silent revolution is under way.	波茨坦—一场静悄悄的革命正在进行中。


In November, Dubai announced the construction of a solar energy park that will produce electricity for less than $0.06 per kilowatt-hour – undercutting the cost of the alternative investment option, a gas or coal-fired power plant.	11月，迪拜宣布将建设一个太阳能工场，以不到每千瓦时0. 06美元的价格发电，低于其他投资选择——天然气或煤电的成本。


The plant – which is expected to be operational in 2017 – is yet another harbinger of a future in which renewable energy crowds out conventional fossil fuels.	该发电厂——预计将于2017年投入运营——是未来可再生能源扼杀传统化石燃料的又一先遣队。


Indeed, hardly a week seems to pass without news of a major deal to construct a solar power plant.	事实上，几乎每个星期都会有大型新太阳能发电厂要兴建的消息。


In February alone, there were announcements of new solar power projects in Nigeria (1,000 megawatts), Australia (2,000 MW), and India (10,000 MW).	光是在2月，就有尼日利亚 (1,000百万瓦)、 澳大利亚(2,000百万瓦)和印度(10,000百万瓦)等新项目公布。


There can be no doubting that these developments are good for the fight against climate change.	毫无疑问，这些发展趋势有利于遏制气候变化。


But the major consideration driving them is profit, not the environment, as increased efficiency in energy distribution and, where necessary, storage, reduces the cost of producing renewable energy.	但驱动这些投资的主要考虑因素是利润而不是环境，因为能源分销和储藏（如有必要）效率的提高降低了生产可再生能源的成本。


As efforts to improve the management of electricity from fluctuating sources yield further advances, the cost of solar power will continue to fall.	随着高波动资源发电管理的改善不断取得进步，太阳能成本还将继续下降。


Within ten years, it will be produced in many regions around the globe for 4-6 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to a recent study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (commissioned by the think tank Agora Energiewende).	根据弗劳恩霍夫太阳能系统研究所（Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems，由Agora Energiewende开办）的最新研究，不出十年，全球多个地区的太阳能电力将达到每千瓦时4—6美分。


By 2050, production costs will fall to 2-4 cents per kilowatt-hour.	到2050年，太阳能电力成本将下降至2—4美分。


As Patrick Graichen, Agora’s executive director, points out, most forecasts of the world’s future energy supply fail to take into account solar power’s looming victory over its fossil-fuel competitors.	Aogra执行董事帕特里克·格雷琴（Patrick Graichen）指出，世界能源未来供应的预测大多没有考虑到太阳能战胜化石燃料竞争者的情景。 这一情景已经出现在我们面前。


Updating them would paint a realistic picture of the costs and impact of our energy production and consumption on the world’s climate, reveal the importance of renewable energy to economic development, and enable better planning of energy infrastructure.	更新预测能够让我们获得更加现实的成本图景和了解我们的能源生产与消费对世界气候的影响，揭示可再生能源对经济发展的重要性，让我们更好地规划能源基础设施。


We should not underestimate the tremendous potential the sun and wind have for building global wealth and fighting poverty.	我们不应低估太阳和风在打造全球财富和消除贫困方面的的巨大潜力。


As solar power becomes increasingly cost-effective, countries located within the planet’s sun belt could develop entirely new business models as cheap, clean energy enables them to process their raw materials locally, adding value – and profit – prior to export.	随着太阳能电力性价比的日益提高，位于地球阳光带的国家能够发展出全新的商业模式，廉价清洁的能源让它们能够在本地处理原材料，获得增加值——以及利润——后出口。


Unlike large-scale conventional power plants, solar installations can be built in months; in addition to being cost-effective, they provide a quick means of responding to growing global demand.	和大规模传统发电厂不同，太阳能发电设备可以在接个月的时间内安装完毕； 它们不但性价比高，也是迅速满足日益增长的全球需求的方法。


And, because solar plants can generally be operated independently of complex interregional electricity grids, they provide less developed countries a way to electrify their economies without building expensive new infrastructure.	此外，由于太阳能发电厂可以独立于复杂的集成电网运行，因此也为欠发达国家提供了一条不必建设昂贵的新基础设施就可以给经济带来电力的道路。


Solar power plants thus could play the same role for energy that mobile phones did for telecommunications: rapidly reaching large, underserved communities in sparsely populated regions, without the need to invest in the cables and accompanying infrastructure that once would have been necessary.	因此，太阳能发电厂对能源业的意义就好比是移动电话对通讯业：迅速普及到人口稀疏地区的大型服务欠发达地区，而不需要投资于电缆和其他基础设施。


In Africa, 66% of the population has gained access to electronic communications since 2000.	在非洲，2000年以来已有 66%的人口获得了电子通讯设备。


There is no reason why solar power could not do likewise for access to electricity.	没有理由认为太阳能电力也能让电力达到与此相当的普及程度。


The time to invest in large-scale solar energy production is now.	如今，投资大规模太阳能生产正逢其时。


For starters, construction costs for solar power plants are finally low enough to produce electricity at a competitive, stable price for more than 25 years.	首先，太阳能电厂的建设成本已足够低，可以在具有竞争力的稳定价格上持续发电25年以上。


The price of oil may have plunged for now, but it will rise again.	目前石油价格出现了崩盘，但迟早会反弹。


Solar power plants provide insurance against fossil fuels’ inherent price volatility.	太阳能电厂提供了对化石燃料内在价格波动性的保险。


Even more important, the cost of capital currently is very low in many countries.	更重要的是，目前许多国家的资本成本十分低。


This is a decisive factor for the economic viability of solar power plants, because they need very little maintenance but require relatively high upfront investment.	对于太阳能电厂的经济可行性来说，这是个决定性因素，因为太阳能电厂不太需要维护，但需要相对较高的前端投资。


The Fraunhofer study shows that differences in capital expenditure are as important for costs per kilowatt-hour as differences in sunlight.	弗劳恩霍夫的研究表明，资本支出差异对每千瓦时成本的重要性不亚于阳光量差异。


Solar power is currently cheaper in cloudy Germany than in sunny regions where the cost of borrowing is higher.	如今，在多云的德国，太阳能已经比借贷成本较高的阳光充裕国家价格更低。


The amount of sunlight that shines on a country is impossible to change.	照射一国的阳光量无法改变。


But the cost of capital is something over which a country can maintain a certain amount of control.	但资本成本是一国多多少少可以控制的因素。


By creating a stable legal framework, providing credit guarantees in the context of international agreements, and involving central banks in large-scale investments, governments can help to make solar power more accessible.	通过建立稳定的法律框架、提供国际协议条件下的信用担保、让中央银行参与大规模投资，政府可以帮助太阳能电力变得更加普及。


Factors like these explain why international climate policies increasingly focus not only on solar power, but on other forms of renewable energy as well.	这些因素解释了为何国际气候政策不但日益关注太阳能，也日益关注其他形式的可再生能源。


Technological breakthroughs have boosted these energy sources’ competitiveness relative to fossil fuels.	技术突破增强了这些能源资源相对化石燃料的竞争力。


As a result, instruments that make their adoption more affordable are becoming some of the most important weapons we have in the fight against climate change.	结果，降低这些能源的采用成本的工具也正在成为我们遏制气候变化的最重要的武器之一。


Saving Somalia Through Debt Relief	用债务减免拯救索马里


LONDON – Julius Nyerere, the first president of Tanzania, once asked his country’s creditors a blunt question: “Must we starve our children to pay our debts?”	伦敦—坦桑尼亚第一任总统尼雷尔曾经问过坦桑尼亚债权人一个尖锐的问题：“难道我们必须让我们的儿童挨饿来偿还我们的债务吗？


That was in 1986, before the public campaigns and initiatives that removed much of Africa’s crushing and unpayable debt burden.	”这是1986年，免除让非洲不堪重负、无力偿还的债务负担的公共运动和计划兴起前夕。


But Nyerere’s question still hangs like a dark cloud over Somalia.	但尼雷尔的问题仍然像一片乌云那样悬在索马里上空。


Over the last year, an unprecedented humanitarian effort has pulled Somalia back from the brink of famine.	去年，前所未有的人道主义援助把索马里从饥荒边缘拉了回来。


As the worst drought in living memory destroyed harvests and decimated livestock, almost $1 billion was mobilized in emergency aid for nutrition, health, and clean water provision.	几十年来最严重的旱灾导致绝收和牲畜大量倒闭，人们动员了近10亿美元紧急援助用于营养、卫生和清洁水供应。


That aid saved many lives and prevented a slow-motion replay of the 2011 drought, when delayed international action resulted in nearly 260,000 deaths.	这笔援助拯救了许多生命，也阻止了2011旱灾的慢镜头回放，在那场旱灾中，国际行动的姗姗来迟导致近260,000人死亡。


Yet, even after these recent efforts, Somalia’s fate hangs in the balance.	但是，即使做了这些努力，索马里仍然命悬一线。 早期预警系统表明2018年仍有可能爆发饥荒。


Early warning systems are pointing to a prospective famine in 2018.	断断续续的可怜的降水导致250万人面临持续粮食危机； 大约400,000儿童出于严重营养不良状态；


Poor and erratic rains have left 2.5 million people facing an ongoing food crisis; some 400,000 children live with acute malnutrition; food prices are rising; and dry wells have left communities dependent on expensive trucked water.	粮食价格节节攀升； 干枯的水井让社区不得不依靠昂贵的运水车。


Humanitarian aid remains essential.	人道主义援助仍然非常重要。


Almost half of Somalia’s 14 million people need support, according to UN agencies. But humanitarian aid, which is often volatile and overwhelmingly short-term, will not break the deadly cycles of drought, hunger, and poverty.	据联合国机构的数据，索马里的1,400万人口中有近一半人需要支持，但人道主义援助起伏不定且绝大部分为短期性质，无法打破干旱、饥饿和贫困的恶性循环。


If Somalia is to develop its health and education systems, economic infrastructure, and the social protection programs needed to build a more resilient future, it needs predictable, long-term development finance.	索马里想要发展卫生和教育体系、经济基础设施和社会保障计划，从而构建恢复力更强的未来的话，就需要可预测的长期发展融资。


Debt represents a barrier to that finance.	债务是这一融资的一大障碍。


Somalia’s external debt is running at $5 billion.	索马里外部债务高达50亿美元。


Creditors range from rich countries like the United States, France, and Italy, to regional governments and financial institutions, including the Arab Monetary Fund.	债权人既有美国、法国和意大利等富裕国家，也有包括阿拉伯货币基金组织（Arab Monetary Fund）在内的地区政府和金融机构。


But Somalia’s debt also includes $325 million in arrears owed to the International Monetary Fund.	但索马里的债务中也包括3. 25亿美元的国际货币基金组织（IMF）欠款。


And there’s the rub: countries in arrears to the IMF are ineligible to receive long-term financing from other sources, including the World Bank’s $75 billion concessional International Development Association (IDA) facility.	要害就在这里：拖欠IMF的国家没有资格获得来自其他渠道的长期融资，包括世界银行750亿美元规模的优惠的国际发展协会（IDA）便利。


Much of the country’s current debt dates to the Cold War, when the world’s superpower rivalry played out in the Horn of Africa.	索马里当前债务大部分可以追溯到冷战，当时，世界超级大国对峙在非洲之角展开。


Over 90% of Somalia’s debt burden is accounted for by arrears on credit advanced in the early 1980s, well before two-thirds of today’s Somali population was born.	索马里90%以上的债务负担产生自20世纪80年代早期所获信贷的拖欠，当时，三分之二的索马里现今人口还没有出生。


Most of the lending then was directed to President Siad Barre as a reward for his abandonment of the Soviet Union and embrace of the West.	大部分信贷给了总统巴雷，作为他抛弃苏联、倒向西方的奖赏。


Military credits figured prominently: over half of the $973 million in US debt is owed to the Department of Defense.	军事信贷占了大头：欠美国的9. 73亿美元债务中有一大半债权人是美国国防部。


Somalia got state-of-the-art weaponry, liberally financed by loans.	通过慷慨大方的贷款，索马里获得了最先进的武器。


The IMF was nudged into guaranteeing repayment through a structural adjustment program.  Repaying the debt today would cost every Somali man, woman, and child $361.	IMF也被动员通过结构性调整计划，为偿还进行担保。 如今，偿还债务需要每个索马里人，不论男女老少，拿出361美元。


None of this would matter if Somalia had qualified for debt reduction.	如果索马里有资格获得债务减免，所有这些都不是问题。


The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC), created in response to the great debt relief campaigns of the 1990s, has written off around $77 billion in debt for 36 countries.	重债穷国计划（HIPC）在伟大的20世纪90年代债务减免运动中应运而生，已经为36个国家减记了大约770亿美元债务。


Somalia is one of just three countries that have yet to qualify.	索马里是仅有的尚未获得减免资格的三个国家之一。


The reason: the arrears owed to the IMF.	原因：欠IMF的拖欠款。


(Eritrea and Sudan have also not qualified, for similar reasons).	（厄立特里亚和苏丹没有获得减免资格的原因类似。 ）


The IMF view is that Somalia, like earlier HIPC beneficiaries, should establish a track record of economic reform.	IMF认为，索马里和早前的HIPC受益国一样，应该建立经济改革跟踪记录。


This will delay a full debt write-off for up to three years, exclude Somalia from long-term development finance, and reinforce its dependence on emergency aid.	这将让债务减记延后多达三年时间，使索马里无法获得长期发展融资，让它对紧急援助更加依赖。


Other creditors have endorsed this approach through silent consent.	其他债权人则默许这一方针。


Somalia deserves better.	索马里理应获得更好的对待。


President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s government has demonstrated a commitment to economic reform, improved accountability, and transparency.	总统穆罕默德的政府表现出经济改革、改善问责和透明度的决心。


For two years, it has adhered to an IMF program, achieving targets for improving public finance and the banking sector.	两年来，它遵守IMF计划，实现了改善公共财政和银行部门的目标。


More needs to be done, especially in terms of domestic resource mobilization.	还有更多事情需要完成，特别是在国内资源动员方面。


But this is the first Somali government to provide the international community with a window of opportunity to support recovery.	但穆罕默德政府是第一个为国际社会提供支持其复苏的机会窗口的索马里政府。


We must capitalize on it.	我们必须抓住这个机会窗口。


Waiting three more years as Somalia ticks the IMF’s internal accounting boxes would be a triumph of bureaucratic complacency over human needs.	让索马里等待三年以满足IMF的内部会计规则意味着官僚自满凌驾于人道需求之上。


Without international support, Somalia’s government lacks the resources needed to break the deadly cycle of drought, hunger, and poverty.	没有国际支持的话，索马里政府就无法获得打破干旱、饥饿和贫困的恶性循环所需要的资源。


Somalia’s children need investment in health, nutrition, and schools now, not at some point in the indefinite future.	索马里儿童需要卫生、营养和教育方面的投资，现在就需要，而不是等到无穷无尽的未来的某个时候。


Investing in irrigation and water management would boost productivity.	灌溉和水管理投资能够提高生产率。


With drought-related livestock and crop losses estimated at around $1.5 billion, government-supported cash payment programs would help aid recovery, strengthen resilience, and build trust.	与干旱相关的牲畜和庄稼损失据测算高达15亿美元左右，政府支持的现金支付计划将有助于助推复苏、增强恢复力和构建信任。


The benefits of these investments would extend to security.	这些投资的收益不仅局限于社会。


Providing the hope that comes with education, health care, and the prospect of a job is a far more effective weapon than a drone to combat an insurgency that feeds on despair, poverty, joblessness, and the absence of basic services.	与教育、医疗和就业前景一同到来的希望是比用无人机打击叛乱远远更加有效的武器。 叛乱带来了绝望、贫困、失业和基本服务丧失。


There is an alternative to IMF-sponsored inertia on debt relief.	可以采取办法代替IMF导致的债务减免惰性。


The World Bank and major creditors could convene a creditor summit to agree to terms for a prompt debt write-off.	世界银行和主要债权人可以召开债权人峰会，就推动债务减记的条件形成一致。


More immediately, the World Bank could seek its shareholders’ approval for a special mechanism – a “pre-arrears clearance grant” – that would enable Somalia to receive IDA financing.	世界银行可以更加直截了当地寻求股东批准特别机制——“拖欠前清算拨款”（pre-arrears clearance grant）——从而让索马里得到IDA融资。


There is a precedent for this: In 2005, the US championed World Bank financing for Liberia, which at the time had significant IMF debt after emerging from civil war.	这样做有先例：2005年，美国领衔世界银行授予利比里亚融资，当时刚刚结束内战的利比里亚背负着沉重的IMF债务。


The technicalities can be discussed and the complexities resolved.	技术细节可以讨论，复杂性可以解决。


But we should not lose sight of what is at stake.	但我们不应该对重要的问题视而不见。


It is indefensible for the IMF and other creditors to obstruct Somalia’s access to financing because of arrears on a debt incurred three decades ago as much through reckless lending as through irresponsible borrowing.	IMF和其他债权人因为索马里拖欠三十年前的债务而切断它的融资源，这是站不住脚的。 这些债务大部分是鲁莽的贷款行为和不负责任的借款行为的共同产物。


Somalia’s children played no part in creating that debt.	索马里儿童对这笔债务的产生没有任何责任。


They should not have to pay for it with their futures.	他们也不应该以牺牲自己的未来为代价被迫偿还它们。


Boosting South Africa’s Diversity Dividend	提振南非的多样性红利


CAPE TOWN – After an insight-filled and enjoyable visit to South Africa – my first to this beautiful country in 15 years – I am leaving with mixed feelings.	开普敦—在经历了一次大开眼界、充满欢乐的南非之行后——这是我15年来第一次访问这个美丽的国家——离开时我有一种复杂的感觉。


The country’s ongoing process of economic and political development has left those living here, as well as concerned observers like me, both hopeful and worried about the future.	这个国家方兴未艾的经济和政治发展让生活在这里的人，以及像我这样的关注它的观察者，对它的未来感到喜忧参半。


A quarter-century ago, South Africa embarked on its extraordinary transition away from nearly 50 years of stifling apartheid, by following Nelson Mandela’s principled vision to “forgive but never forget.”	四分之一个世纪前，南非脱离桎梏了它将近50年的种族隔离，追随曼德拉的“原谅但不忘却”的原则性愿景，开始了非凡的转型。


When its black majority was finally given a say in governance, it elected an African National Congress (ANC) government that, by refraining from confiscating and nationalizing private property held by the privileged minority, distinguished the country from many others, in Africa and elsewhere, that have emerged from repressive colonial rule.	占多数的黑人终于获得了治国话语权，选出了一个非国大党（ANC）政府，它没有征没或将持有在特权少数群体手中的私人产权国有化，这使得南非在众多非洲和其他地区从压迫性殖民统治中独立的国家中间显得鹤立鸡群。


Instead, the Mandela-led government recognized the country’s diversity as a potential source of long-term unity and wellbeing, and decided to pursue a remarkably inclusive approach.	相反，曼德拉领导的南非政府认为国家的多样性是长期统一和福祉的潜在资源，决心采取令人瞩目的包容性方针。


This model has inspired many others outside of South Africa, not least in countries still ruled by authoritarian regimes that use fear tactics to maintain their grip on power.	这一模式启发了许多其他国家，包括一些仍由极权主义政权统治、用恐怖策略保持控制权力的国家。


Mandela’s approach showed that orderly and inclusive transitions are possible, and that previously suppressed and imprisoned freedom advocates can transform themselves to form a legitimate and effective government.	曼德拉的方针证明，有序、包容的转型是可能的，曾经饱受镇压和牢狱之灾的自由斗士可以转换身份，组成合法、有效的政府。


But the outcomes of South Africa’s transition are far from perfect.	但南非转型的结果远远称不上完美。 如今，增长包容性不足且过于缓慢，去年年GDP几乎没有增长。


Today, growth is insufficiently inclusive and far too slow, with the annual GDP growth barely positive last year.	南非基尼系数高居世界最高行列，这表明收入不平等性水平畸高； 失业率高达26.


The country’s Gini coefficient is one of the worst in the world, reflecting stark levels of income inequality; its rate of unemployment, at 26.5%, is alarmingly high and hits young people the hardest; and too many people are stuck in disastrous poverty cycles.	5%，令人警惕，其中受影响最大的是年轻人； 此外，大量人口无法摆脱可怕的贫困循环。


Poor governance has undoubtedly contributed to this disappointing situation, which falls short of what Mandela envisioned for the country he loved.	毫无疑问，拙劣的治理是造成这一令人失望的状况的原因之一，曼德拉为这个他所热爱的国家所制定的愿景没有实现。


Among other things, the government has mismanaged public finances, and it has stumbled in its pursuit of a new economic-growth model.	政府的错误之一是公共财政管理失当，追寻新经济增长模式的努力也不尽人意。


At the same time, falling commodity prices in recent years have only added to the economy’s economic and monetary challenges.	与此同时，最近几年大宗商品价格下跌也加剧了南非经济的经济和货币挑战。


With the country performing well below its considerable potential, “black economic empowerment” efforts that are meant to reduce historical inequalities have suffered.	南非的表现远远低于它的巨大潜力，旨在降低历史性不平等的“黑人经济赋权”运动因此遭遇挫折。


But public-sector shortfalls, which have become more visible and better understood recently, are not the only reason for this.	但公共部门的不足——尽管最近变得显而易见也得到了更好的理解——并不是唯一的原因。


Another, less visible problem is that private businesses’ own efforts to ensure diversity have not gained sufficient traction.	另一个不太引人关注的问题是私营企业保证多样性的努力没有赢得足够的动力。


South African companies are not the only ones to struggle in this area.	在这方面，遭遇困难的不止于南非公司。


In fact, much of the business community around the world, including in the West, is still trying to figure out how to make inclusion and diversity programs successful, including with respect to leveling a playing field that is still tilted against women.	事实上，世界商界的大部，包括西方商界，仍没有找到如何让包容和多样性计划取得成功，包括在为仍在饱受歧视的妇女打造公平竞争环境方面。


Research has shown that inclusion is good for business.	研究表明，包容性对商业是一个有利因素。


As a result, many Western companies recognize that introducing more diversity into the decision-making process at most levels will boost their resilience and agility.	因此，许多西方公司认识到，在大部分层级的决策过程中引入更大的多样性能够提升企业的恢复力和灵活性。


But they are still struggling to overcome blind spots and biases, both conscious and unconscious, stemming from structural and behavioral obstacles that women face, especially when trying to secure senior positions for which they are amply qualified.	但它们仍然难以克服有意和无意的盲点和偏见，这些盲点和偏见来自妇女所面临的结构性和行为性障碍，特别是在捍卫她们完全具备资质的高级职位方面。


As Harvard University’s Mahzarin Banaji, for example, has demonstrated, companies fall victim to blind spots and unconscious biases for a variety of reasons.	比如，哈佛大学的马扎林·班纳吉（Mahzarin Banaji）证明，公司会因为各种原因陷入盲点和无意偏见。


These include the manner by which our brains have evolved, childhood exposures and experiences, historical interactions, and heuristic shortcuts that we unconsciously use to interpret information and frame issues.	这些原因包括人类大脑所进化出来的习惯、童年的体验和不幸遭遇、历史互动（historical interactions）和下意识地用于解读信息和框定问题的启发式捷径。


Countering these factors will require companies to figure out how to sustain the heightened states of awareness and understanding that bring biases to light.	抵御这些因素需要公司搞清楚如何保持高度清醒的认识，让偏见无处藏身。


South African companies, particularly in the financial sector, can no longer pay only lip service to inclusion.	南非公司，特别是金融部门，不可只把包容性挂在嘴皮子上。


They will need to implement behavioral nudges, and modify corporate structures in order to encourage more inclusive, merit-based behaviors.	它们需要实施行为引导，并改变公司结构以鼓励更加包容的、基于优点的行为。


CEOs and senior management teams must revamp their operations, remind their colleagues of the strong business case for diversity, and make a much stronger effort to identify, train, and mentor talented individuals of all races.	CEO和高管团队必须改变经营方式，为同事普及多样性所包含的巨大商机，下大功夫识别、训练和教导不论种族出身的有才干的个人。


Specifically, they should expand individual and collective apprentice-based and vocational programs, modernize their methods for measuring performance, and intensify their efforts to include recent research on the benefits of cognitive diversity and “superadditivity” in internal and external communications.	具体而言，他们应该扩大个人和集体的学徒制和岗位计划，实现绩效考察方法的现代化，加强纳入关于认知多样性和内外沟通“整体大于部分之和”特性的好处的最新研究。


We should all be on guard against the risk of outdated influences affecting our behaviors and decisions.	我们都应该预防过时的影响力影响我们的行为和决策的风险。


As I argued in my recent book The Only Game in Town, “No company and certainly no country will be able to harvest its realizable potential if it fails to embrace and empower human talent regardless of gender, race, culture, sexual orientation, and perspectives.”	我在新书《负利率时代》（The Only Game in Town）中指出，“任何公司，当然也包括任何国家，如果它不能做到在不考虑性别、种族、文化、性取向和观念的情况下欣然接受人才并赋予人才权力，就它就无法收获它的可观的潜力。 ”


South Africa will need much more than improved economic governance if it is to overcome its challenges and unleash its full potential in an increasingly uncertain global economy.	如果南非要克服它的挑战，在一个日益不确定的全球经济中充分释放潜能，改善经济治理是远远不够的。


Rather than waiting for the politicians to do something about it, South African businesses should deepen their engagement with ever-broader segments of the population.	南非企业不能坐等政客为此做些什么，而应该加强深入更加广泛的人口细分。


Doing so would not only improve productivity, competitiveness, and business results over time. It would also help to reduce the violence that accompanies marginalization, hopelessness, and alienation.	如此，企业不但可以逐渐改善生产率、竞争力和企业绩效，还将有助于减少伴随边缘化、绝望和疏离而生的暴力。


South Africa’s Rhino Paradox	南非的犀牛悖论


JOHANNESBURG – Earlier this year, South Africa’s Constitutional Court overturned a 2009 moratorium on trade in rhinoceros horns.	约翰内斯堡——今年初，南非宪法法院推翻了一项2009年通过的冻结犀牛角贸易的禁令。


It was a devastating blow for animal conservation groups, which had hailed a measure that aligned South Africa with the global ban on the trade in effect since 1977.	动物保护组织因此遭受了毁灭性的打击，他们曾衷心欢迎这项被视为南非与1977年后生效的全球贸易禁令相看齐的举措。


But as the court’s ruling sinks in, commercial breeders and animal rights groups face a crucial question: could the creation of a legal market for farmed horns curb a poaching pandemic that claims some 1,500 wild rhinos annually?	但随着法院的裁决逐渐被人们理解，商业饲养者和动物权利组织面临着一个关键的问题：建立合法的养殖犀牛角市场能否阻止每年导致约1，500头野生犀牛丧命的大面积偷猎？


For South Africa’s rhino industry, the court’s decision was a watershed.	对南非犀牛业而言，法院的裁决是一道分水岭。


John Hume, the world’s most successful rhino breeder, hosted the country’s first online horn auction in August.	全世界最成功的犀牛繁育者约翰·休姆于今年8月举行了该国历史上首次在线犀牛角拍卖活动。


Writing on the auction’s website, he argued that “the demand for rhino horn is high, and open trading of the horn has the potential to satisfy this demand to prevent rhino poaching.”	他在拍卖网站上认为“人们对犀牛角的需求量很大，而且公开犀牛角贸易有可能满足这种需求，从而防止犀牛被偷猎。 ”


Opponents of the trade say demand for horns could increase as a result of legalization, reviving dormant interest.	犀牛角贸易反对人士则认为合法贸易可能增加对犀牛角的需求量，唤起人们处于休眠状态的兴趣。


This growth could outpace commercial supply, and even fuel more illegal poaching of wild animals.	需求增长可能超过商业供应，甚至引发更多非法的野生动物偷猎行为。


Critics also worry that ending the ban will remove any lingering stigma associated with possessing rhino horn, further boosting demand.	批评者们也担心终止禁令将消除与拥有犀牛角相关的残留的污点，从而进一步促进需求。


Breeders and traders like Hume concede that demand “is not going to die down anytime soon.”	像休姆这样的饲养者和贸易者承认需求“不会很快消失。


But they argue that because horns are a renewable resource – they grow back when trimmed, albeit slowly – what South Africa actually needs are incentives to encourage responsible breeding and conservation.	”但他们认为因为犀牛角是一种可再生资源——它们在缓慢修剪时尽管长得很慢，但却能逐渐长回来——因此南非实际需要的是采取措施鼓励负责任的饲养和保护。


“If we do not take the steps to meet the demand,” Hume argues, “we won’t save the rhino.”	“如果我们不采取措施满足需求，”休姆认为，“我们就无法挽救犀牛。 ”


We still do not know how the court’s decision will affect demand for a resource that is prized throughout Asia for its medicinal value.	我们尚不清楚法院裁决将对因药用价值而在整个亚洲都非常珍贵的这种资源需求产生何种影响。


What is clear, however, is that placing too much trust in a commercial conservation approach is risky.	但有一点可以明确，那就是太过信任商业保护方法具有太多的危险因素。


Evidence suggests that while farming of rhinos may have niche market possibilities, it will not prevent poaching of wild rhinos.	有证据表明虽然饲养犀牛可能在细分市场具有可行性，但它却无法阻止偷猎野生犀牛的行为。


Similar efforts to protect wild animals through farming have fallen short.	通过饲养来保护野生动物的类似工作都没有取得成功。


For example, a 2010 study in Vietnam found that commercial farming of the Southeast Asian porcupine, a popular meat source, had not dramatically reduced the hunting of wild porcupines.	举例来讲，一项2010年在越南进行的研究表明商业养殖作为普遍受欢迎肉源的东南亚豪猪并没有显著减少人们偷猎野生豪猪的行为。


It is the same story for elephant ivory, bear bile, and mule deer musk.	象牙、熊胆和麝香的状况也是一样。


Demand for wild products often far exceeds what commercial breeding can realistically offer.	对野生产品的需求往往远远超过商业饲养所能提供的现实产量。


Commercial breeding programs are further disadvantaged because of the perception among some buyers that wild products are more valuable.	商业养殖计划因为某些买家认为野生产品价值更高的看法而进一步陷入被动。


As University of Johannesburg scientist Laura Tensen has noted, “wild animals are considered superior because of their rarity and high expense.”	正如约翰内斯堡大学科学家劳拉·藤森所指出的那样，“野生动物因其稀少和昂贵而被视为具有更高的价值。 ”


That is especially true for rhinos.	对犀牛而言情况尤其如此。


Poachers often prove the veracity of their illicit product by showing buyers horns that have been removed from the base of the skull, an extraction method that kills the animal.	偷猎者往往通过向买家展示犀牛角是从头骨上直接取下来的来证明其非法产品的真实性，而这种取角方式会直接导致犀牛死亡。


Only the most conscience-stricken consumer would ensure that horns they purchase are sourced from licensed breeders.	只有最讲良心的买主才会确保他们所购买的犀牛角来自于持证的繁育商。


Historically, poaching has also been immune to fluctuations in the retail price of rhino horns.	从历史上看，偷猎行为也几乎不受犀牛角零售价格波动的影响。


For the price mechanism to eradicate poaching, demand would need to bottom out.	要想靠价格机制来消除偷猎，必须要先最大限度地压缩需求。


With demand actually increasing, and without a threshold price to encourage breeding, supply-side interventions are unlikely to be effective in protecting wild rhinos.	在需求实际增长且没有价格限制以鼓励人工繁育的情况下，供给侧干预措施不太可能有效保护野生犀牛。


Currently, rhino horn sells for as much as $60,000 per kilogram in parts of Asia.	目前，犀牛角在亚洲部分地区售价已经高达$60,000/每公斤。


Breeders are convinced that with permitting systems and detection technologies, legal horns could be identified, law enforcement could prevent illegal horns from being trafficked, and domestic trading could reduce the stress on wild populations.	繁育者坚信通过许可制度和检测技术可以辨识合法犀牛角，执法人员则可以防止非法的犀牛角贩运，而国内贸易可以减少对野生种群的压力。


But these arguments hinge on a number of conditions that are, at the moment, purely aspirational.	但这些说法取决于若干限制条件，而这些条件就目前而言仅仅是人们美好愿望的反映。


For starters, commercial breeding will succeed only if farmed horns are viewed as a substitute for products sourced from wild animals.	首先，只有当养殖牛角被视为野生牛角的替代品时商业养殖才可能取得成功。


But as researchers like Tensen report, that is unlikely in the near term, given the higher status associated with non-farmed products.	但像藤森那样的研究人员表明，这一目标在近期不太可能实现，因为非养殖产品普遍地位较高。


Law-enforcement efforts would also need to be increased to detect illegal supplies and break up laundering rings.	此外还需要加强执法工作以查明非法供应及打击洗钱链条。


Unfortunately, the illegal syndicates that smuggle wildlife products, often with assistance from government officials, are adept at evading detection.	不幸的是，偷运野生动物制品的非法集团往往拥有政府官员的协助，因此逃避侦查是他们的强项。


Finally, the pro-farming argument assumes that commercial breeders will eventually supply horn at lower prices than poachers.	最后，赞成养殖的说法假设商业养殖将最终以低于偷猎者的价格提供犀牛角产品。


But captive breeding is costly.	但圈养繁殖需要耗费巨额的资金。


Scientists at the University of California, San Diego, for example, have shown that white rhinos rarely produce fertile offspring in captivity.	举例而言，加利福尼亚大学圣地亚哥分校的科学家们已经证明，白犀牛在圈养条件下极少繁育具有活力的后代。


Furthermore, the horns of young adults grow by only about six centimeters a year, and that rate diminishes with age.	不仅如此，年轻成年犀牛的牛角每年仅生长大约六厘米，而且年龄越大生长速度越低。


Commercial breeders dispute that their operations amount to “captivity,” and Hume’s model is meant to replicate wild conditions as much as possible.	商业养殖人士争辩说他们的养殖行为不同于“圈养”，而休姆的模式则旨在尽可能模仿犀牛的野生条件。


Yet if farmed solutions were ever to be seen as an alternative to wild harvesting, other breeders would need to replicate such conditions.	但如果养殖方案真的想要取代野生捕猎，其他的饲养者也需要模仿这样的条件。


The cost would be significant, and corners would no doubt be cut.	这需要投入大笔资金，而且肯定有人希望投机取巧。


While breeders are eager to defend their trade, economists have debunked the myth that a legal domestic market in rhino horns will conserve wild populations.	尽管养殖者迫不及待地想要保护自己的生计，但经济学家已经拆穿了犀牛角国内合法市场能够保护野生种群的神话。


Even if farmed supplies from South Africa satisfied a portion of the demand globally, it will not alter demand among consumers drawn to wild product, or those who are indifferent about the source.	即使来自南非的养殖产品能够满足全球部分需求，但却无法改变醉心于野生产品的消费者需求，也无法改变那些对产品来源漠不关心的人。


South Africa will most likely soon be home to parallel markets, with extensive laundering of illegal horn.	南非最有可能迅速建立起平行市场，非法犀牛角所赚来的钱被大量洗白。


That may be acceptable to breeders, but it defies reason for those trying to conserve wild rhinos.	繁育者可能认为这种状况可以接受，但却完全不符合希望保护野生犀牛群体的诉求。


South Korea’s Looming Crisis	危机逼近韩国


SEOUL – Twenty years after the Asian financial crisis, South Korea seems to have learned its lesson, having taken great pains to strengthen its economic resilience.	首尔—亚洲金融危机过去二十年后，韩国似乎已经学到了教训，克服了极大的困难提高了其经济恢复力。


But now the country is confronting a new set of internal and external risks, which may foreshadow another major economic crisis – or worse.	但如今，韩国正面临一系列新的内部和外部风险，可能导致又一场重大经济危机，甚至比二十年前还要糟糕。


Given the ongoing nuclear crisis with North Korea, a new bout of economic tumult is the last thing the country needs.	朝鲜核危机仍在发酵，在这样的情况下，新的经济动荡绝不是韩国所需要的。


In July 1997, a currency crisis that struck Thailand quickly spread to neighboring economies.	1997年7月，一场货币危机在袭击了泰国之后，迅速蔓延到相邻经济体。


South Korea was not hit right away, and many believed that it would be spared.	韩国没有直接受其影响，许多人也相信它不会蔓延开来。


By that November, however, the country faced a sudden withdrawal of foreign capital, which, together with financial institutions’ inability to borrow from abroad, quickly depleted the country’s international reserves.	但到了11月，韩国突然发生外国资本撤离，加上金融机构无法从海外借贷，韩国国际储备被迅速掏空。


The following month, South Korea turned to the International Monetary Fund for assistance, and launched painful structural reforms.	在接下来的一个月中，韩国向国际货币基金组织（IMF）求援，并采取了痛苦的结构性改革。


Companies and financial institutions went bankrupt, and millions of jobs were lost.	韩国公司和金融机构破产，数百万人丢掉了工作。


In 1998, the economy contracted by 5.5%.	1998年，韩国经济收缩了5. 5%。


But things turned around a year later: GDP growth soared to 11.3%, and government-led reforms made progress toward addressing structural weaknesses, including an under-supervised financial system and an over-leveraged corporate sector.	但情况在一年后开始好转：GDP大幅上扬11. 3%，政府领导的改革在解决结构性弱点方面效果显著，包括监督不力的金融体系和过度举债的公司部门。


As a result, the economy weathered the 2008 global financial crisis far better than most, foreign-exchange reserves far exceed short-term external liabilities, and companies and banks are financially sound.	结果，韩国经济在抵御2008年全球金融危机方面比大部分国家都做得更好，还会储备远超短期外部负债，公司和银行财务状况良好。


In this respect, the Asian financial crisis amounted to a blessing in disguise for South Korea.	从这个方面讲，亚洲金融危机对韩国来说堪称塞翁失马。


Yet South Korea is now beset by some of the same structural problems Japan faced during its two decades of stagnation: rapid population aging, labor-market inefficiency, institutional weakness, and low productivity in the service sector.	但如今，韩国面临着日本在长达二十年的停滞时期中所面临的同样的结构性问题：人口迅速老龄化，劳动力市场效率低下，制度性弱点，以及服务业生产率低迷。


Demographic constraints are tightening.	人口约束日益趋紧。


South Korea’s fertility rate fell to 1.17 last year – one of the world’s lowest – and continues to decline.	去年，韩国生育率下降到1. 17，为世界最低之一，并且还在继续下降。


Fourteen percent of the population is aged 65 or older, a figure that is expected to reach 28% by 2035.	百分之十四的人口年龄达到了65岁（含），到2035年，这一比例预计将升高到28%。


As the labor force shrinks and the burden of supporting the elderly grows, the economy is losing vitality.	随着劳动力的减少和支持老龄人口负担的增加，韩国经济正在失去自生能力。


More problematic, however, are South Korea’s low labor-market efficiency and weak institutions.	但问题更大的是韩国劳动力市场效率低下和制度性弱点。


According to the World Economic Forum’s latest global competitiveness report, South Korea ranks 73rd worldwide for labor-market efficiency, as a result of tight restrictions on employee-employer relations.	据世界经济论坛的最新全球竞争力报告，韩国劳动力市场效率名列全世界第73位，造成这一现象的原因是韩国对雇佣关系的限制非常严格。


And it ranks 58th for institutional quality, owing to excessive government regulations, opaque corporate governance, and policy instability.	而在制度评分方面，韩国名列第58名，原因在于过度的政府监管、不透明的公司治理以及政策不稳定。


Finally, productivity in the services sector amounts to just 45% that of the manufacturing sector, on average, compared with an OECD average of 90%.	最后，服务业生产率平均而言只有制造业的45%，而经合组织平均水平为90%。


The problem is most acute in finance, real estate, business services, and community and government services.	金融、不动产、商业服务以及社区和政府服务等行业的问题尤其突出。


Externally, South Korea is highly vulnerable to the escalating North Korean nuclear threat.	从外部环境看，韩国极易受到朝鲜核威胁升级的影响。


In recent months, North Korea has fired several ballistic missiles and conducted a nuclear test, spurring an exchange of incendiary rhetoric between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump.	在最近几个月中，朝鲜多次发射弹道导弹并进行了一次核试验，其领导人金正恩和美国总统特朗普之间也爆发了嘴仗。


This war of words, in which both sides have threatened to launch “preemptive strikes,” is raising fears of a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.	在这场口舌之争中，双反格斗威胁将发动“先发制人的打击”，让人更加担心朝鲜半岛可能爆发军事冲突。


The United States is now attempting to pressure China to take responsibility for curbing the North Korean nuclear threat, with the US Treasury considering imposing sanctions on Chinese individuals, companies, and banks doing business with North Korea.	目前，美国正在尝试施压中国承担遏制朝鲜核威胁的责任，美国财政部正在考虑对与朝鲜又业务往来的中国个人、公司和银行采取制裁。


But while China has lately agreed to enforce economic sanctions more actively, it doesn’t want the North Korean regime to collapse.	但尽管中国最近同意更加积极地执行经济制裁，它并不希望朝鲜政权崩溃。


Moreover, China has focused some of its ire on South Korea.	此外，中国也关注其自身对韩国的不满。


Beyond aggressively calling for the withdrawal of the US military’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from South Korea, which it views as a threat to its own security and the region’s strategic balance, China is using its economic might to retaliate against the South.	除了强烈要求撤出美军部署在韩国的萨德系统（中国视之为对其自身安全和地区战略平衡的威胁），中国也在用经济实力报复韩国。


In particular, as a result of China’s ban on group tours to South Korea, 49% fewer Chinese tourists visited the country in the first eight months of this year than in the same period last year.	特别是，拜中国禁止旅行团赴韩旅游所赐，今年前八个月中国赴韩游客数量同比下降了49%。


Moreover, China accounts for 25% of South Korea’s total exports, giving it substantial leverage on trade.	此外，中国占韩国出口总量的25%，这意味着其还可以在贸易上大做文章。


Making matters worse, South Korea’s second-largest trading partner – the US, which accounts for 13% of all exports – is also putting pressure on the country.	更糟糕的是，韩国第二大贸易伙伴——美国，占其出口总量的13%——也在向韩国施压。


Despite the critical importance of re-affirming the US-South Korea alliance, the Trump administration, concerned about the massive bilateral trade deficit, has threatened to renegotiate the bilateral free-trade agreement.	尽管重申美韩联盟至关重要，但特朗普政府出于担心巨大的双边贸易赤字，威胁要重新谈判双边自由贸易协定。


While the economic impact of such a move would be serious for South Korea’s export-dependent economy, the most urgent imperative is to avoid any military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.	这一举动将给以来出口的韩国经济造成严重的经济后果，但最紧迫的任务仍然是避免朝鲜半岛军事冲突。


To that end, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, a longtime advocate of the “Sunshine Policy” toward the North, wants to employ “balancing sanctions and dialogue.”	在这方面，长期以来一直鼓吹对朝采取“阳光政策”的韩国总统文在寅想实施“平衡的制裁和对话”。


But, so far, South Korea has not managed to improve diplomatic relations with its own ally, the US, not to mention with China.	但到目前为止，韩国连改善与自身盟友——美国（更不用说中国了）的外交关系都没有做到。


And it has gotten nowhere near reviving inter-Korean talks.	重启朝鲜半岛内部对话也看不到任何前景。


This failure has many Koreans scared.	这方面的失败让许多韩国人感到担心。


Would the unpredictable Trump go so far as to sacrifice South Korea (and Japan) to save San Francisco?	反覆莫测特朗普会不惜牺牲韩国（和日本）拯救旧金山吗？


The possibility is so bone-chilling that the South is now debating whether to develop its own nuclear weapons or bring US tactical nuclear bombs back to its territory.	这一可能性令人不寒而栗，韩国现在已开始讨论要自己开发核武器或让美国重新在韩国部署战术核武器。


Either approach would antagonize China, potentially leading to an armed clash on the Korean Peninsula.	而这两种做法都会触怒中国，从而导致朝鲜半岛武装对峙。


In the 1990s, South Korea waited for matters to come to a head before responding.	20世纪90年代，韩国一直等到大难临头才开始反应。


This time, it must nip the incipient crisis in the bud.	如今，韩国必须将危机扼杀在萌芽状态。


That means accelerating domestic structural reforms to improve productivity, enhance labor-market efficiency, upgrade institutions, and foster a business environment that supports modern service industries and innovative start-ups.	这意味着加快国内结构性改革以提高生产率、增强劳动力市场效率、实现制度升级，并打造一个支持现代服务业和创新初创企业的营商环境。


It also means strengthening both economic and diplomatic ties with major countries, while working with the US and China, in particular, to end the North Korean nuclear standoff.	这也意味着加强与主要国家之间的经济和外交关系，特别是要和美国和中国一起致力于结束朝鲜核僵局。


Neither agenda will be easy to pursue.	这两个日程都不容易实现。


But South Korea’s future prosperity, if not its very survival, depends on its leaders’ efforts on both fronts in the months and years ahead.	但韩国未来的繁荣乃至生存，都取决于未来几个月到几年中其领导人在这两个日程上的作为。


Europe’s Return to Crisis?	欧洲回归危机？


BRUSSELS – Just four months ago, when the Europhile Emmanuel Macron was elected as France’s president, it seemed that the European Union could finally look forward to a period of calm.	布鲁塞尔—四个月前，马克龙当选为法国总统时，欧盟好像终于要迈向平静期了。


But calm is the last thing one can see on the streets of Barcelona, where demonstrations in favor of Catalonian independence – a referendum on which was brutally suppressed by government forces – have been met with equally potent protests against it.	但你在巴塞罗那的街头看不到丝毫平静，在这里，支持加泰罗尼亚独立（独立公投被政府力量残酷镇压）的示威遇上了同样强有力的反独立游行。


As Spain’s internal conflict escalates, a return to crisis in Europe may seem all but inevitable.	随着西班牙内部冲突的升级，欧洲回归危机看上去似乎已是无可避免了。


Yet what is happening on the ground in Spain actually indicates that the European economic recovery is strengthening, while highlighting the limits of what the EU can achieve.	但西班牙所发生的事情，其实正表明欧洲经济复苏正在加强，同时也突出地表明了欧盟成就的极限。


The strength of the EU’s economic recovery is revealed by the absence of any significant financial-market reaction to the tumultuous scenes in Catalonia.	欧盟经济复苏的强度，从金融市场对加泰罗尼亚骚乱景象没有产生任何反应便可一窥端倪。


Had a similar situation arisen a few years ago, there would have been a run on Spanish government bonds, and Spain’s stock market would have tanked.	如果类似的情景在几年前出现的话，西班牙政府债券必定会发生挤兑，西班牙股市也将崩盘。


Today, however, markets are taking the country’s profound political uncertainty in stride.	但如今，市场对西班牙巨大的政治不确定性处之泰然。


This vote of confidence is built on solid foundations.	这场信心投票建立在坚实的基础之上。


The entire eurozone economy is growing at respectable, albeit unspectacular, rates.	整个欧元区经济增长率虽然说不上亮眼，但也颇为得体。


And the Spanish economy has been growing faster than the eurozone average, all while keeping its external accounts in slight surplus.	而西班牙经济增长一直快于欧元区平均水平，外部账户也保持着少量盈余。


This means that Spain’s recovery is based on increasing supply, rather than rising domestic demand, as was the case during the pre-crisis construction boom.	这意味着西班牙复苏是建立在供给增加的基础上，而不像危机前的建筑业繁荣那样，是建立在需求增加的基础上。


Add to that the existence of eurozone institutions that can address temporary financing difficulties faced by banks or states, and it becomes clearer why Spain’s deep political crisis has not been accompanied by dangerous financial-market gyrations.	此外，欧元机构的存在能够解决银行或国家所面临的短暂的融资困难。 如此，西班牙深刻的政治危机并未伴随危险的金融市场剧震的原因便也水落石出了。


But the Catalonia crisis also underscores the limitations of the EU’s model of integration, which are rooted in the fact that the Union is ultimately based on the nation-state.	但加泰罗尼亚危机也暴露出欧盟一体化模式的局限性，它们植根于一个事实，即欧盟说到底系以民族国家为基础。


This model cannot be described as inter-governmental.	这一模式不可说是政府间模式。


Rather, it is based on indirect implementation: almost everything the EU does and decides is carried out by national governments and their administrations.	相反，它基于间接的执行：欧盟的几乎一切事务和决定，都由国家政府和机关做出。


This distinction can be seen most strikingly in the area of monetary policy, where the decision-making mechanism is definitely not intergovernmental: the European Central Bank’s Governing Council operates on the basis of a simple majority.	这一区别在货币政策领域表现最为突出，决策机制毫无疑问不是政府间性质：欧洲央行理事会按照简单多数原则行事。


But the implementation mechanism is certainly indirect: once a decision is made, it is carried out by national central banks – an approach that can have important implications.	但执行机制显然是间接的：决定做出后，由国家央行负责落实——这一方法可能带来重要影响。


For example, the vast bond-buying operations nominally undertaken by the ECB in recent years have been handled largely by national central banks, which purchase their own governments’ bonds.	比如，最近几年中名义上由欧洲央行所做出的大规模债券购买操作，其实主要由国家央行具体处理，它们都买了本国政府的债券。


The European Court of Justice in Luxembourg – another common institution of crucial importance – also relies on a decision-making mechanism that is not inter-governmental.	卢森堡欧洲法院——另一个具有关键重要性的共同机构——也依赖于非政府间性质的决策机制。


Yet its judges are nominated by national governments, and national courts and administrations enforce its decisions.	但它的法官由国家政府提名，并由国家法院和政府执行其裁决。


A comparison with the United States highlights the weaknesses of this approach.	与美国的对比彰显出这一方针的弱点。


While the US Federal Reserve also has a regional structure, the individual District Reserve Banks cover several states and aren’t tied to any state government or institution.	美联储也是地区结构，每个地区联储银行覆盖几个州，并与所有州政府或机构没有关联。


Likewise, US Supreme Court justices are nominated by federal institutions (the Senate accepts or rejects nominees put forward by the president), not by state governments.	类似地，美国最高法院法官也是由联邦机构而非州政府提名（参议院投票接受或否决总统提出的人选）。


For the EU, relying on its member states to build common institutions was arguably the only way to start the integration process, given deep mistrust among countries that had fought so many brutal wars against one another.	对欧盟来说，依靠成员国构建共同机构或许是开启一体化过程的唯一办法，因为其成员国充满了深度互不信任，彼此之间打了无数场残酷的战争。


And yet a union that relies on the nation-state, not just for implementation, but also for legitimacy, can function only as well as its individual members.	但一个依赖民族国家的联盟——不仅在执行方面，在合法性方面也是如此——最多只能像个体成员国那样运行。


But, today, with most of them are beset by internal strife, that model is reaching its limits.	但如今，随着大部分成员国深受内斗困扰，这一模式也已经抵达了极限。


In Greece, weak administrative and judicial systems have impeded economic recovery.	在希腊，孱弱的行政和司法体系妨碍了经济复苏。


In Poland and Hungary, “illiberal” governments are undermining judicial independence.	在波兰和匈牙利，“反自由”政府正在破坏司法独立。


And in Spain, the political system seems incapable of resolving the conflict between the regional government of Catalonia, with its aspirations of greater self-determination, and the central government in Madrid, which argues that even considering the question would undermine the constitutional order.	而在西班牙，政治制度似乎无力解决志在赢得更大自决权的加泰罗尼亚地区政府，和认定即使是考虑这个问题也是对宪法制度的破坏的马德里中央政府之间的冲突。


Even Germany is facing internal political challenges.	即便是德国，也面临着内部政治挑战。


Having lost about one-fifth of her voters in the recent federal election, Chancellor Angela Merkel will have to reckon with three unruly coalition partners during her fourth – and probably last – term.	总理默克尔在最近的联邦选举中损失了约五分之一支持者，她不得不考虑在自己的第四个任期中——有可能也是最后一个——与三个难以控制的其他政党结成执政联盟。


As for Italy, opinion polls suggest that a majority of voters now support populist and/or Euroskeptic parties.	至于意大利，民调表明大部分选民现在支持民粹主义和/或疑欧派政党。


While outright Euroskeptic parties appear unlikely to gain power anywhere, these political shifts do not bode well for European integration.	铁杆疑欧派政党似乎在所有国家都不足以赢得权力，但这些政治变化对欧洲一体化十分不利。


The EU faces little outright hostility.	欧盟很少面临完全的敌意。


Today it is facing, instead, an “obstructionist indifference,” as many of its member states are increasingly preoccupied with their internal challenges, making European integration little more than a second thought throughout most of the continent.	相反，如今它面临的是“妨碍性冷漠”（obstructionist indifference），许多成员国越来越专注于内部挑战，使欧洲一体化在欧洲大部分国家沦为二等事项。


Those EU leaders who do still want to advance integration can no longer count on the argument, used during the financial crisis, that there is no alternative.	仍希望推动一体化的欧盟领导人，不可指望金融危机期间所提出的没有第二个选择的观点。


And the permissive consensus of the first years of integration is long gone.	一体化的五年的放任共识（permissive consensus）早已是明日黄花。


If further progress toward “ever-closer union” is to be made, Europe’s leaders will have to find a new model that can overcome their citizens’ deepening apathy.	要想进一步迈向“日益紧密的联盟”，欧洲领导人必须找到新的模式克服欧洲公民的日益深化的冷漠。


The Resilience of Spanish Democracy	西班牙民主的抵抗力


MADRID – The idea that “Spain is different” drove generations of romantic travelers across the Pyrenees to see for themselves, their imaginations stirred by visions of vibrant women and charming bandits.	马德里—“西班牙不一样”的概念让一代又一代浪漫的旅行者翻越比利牛斯山来这里亲身体验，活力四射的女郎和风流倜傥的好汉激发着他们的想象。


But Spain is no longer just the defiant fist on the hip of Bizet’s cigar-making Carmen.	但西班牙早已不再是摸上比才的制作雪茄的卡门的屁股的咸猪手。


Despite the attention now focused on the Catalonia region’s secession bid , Spain now stands out among Western democracies in a few critical – and positive – ways.	尽管目前的关注目光集中在加泰罗尼亚地区的分离要求上，但西班牙在一些积极的关键角度上，在西方民主国家中显得鹤立鸡群。


Spain’s unique character can be seen in its response to terrorist attacks.	西班牙的独特之处可以从其对恐怖袭击的反应中窥得一斑。


In the United Kingdom, the 2005 London bombings resulted in additional legal curbs on individual and group liberties.	在英国，2005年伦敦爆炸案导致了更多的对个体和群体自由的合法约束。


Likewise, the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States drove a series of changes to surveillance laws that made it easier for the government to spy on ordinary Americans, not to mention the Global War on Terror, which continues to wreak havoc in the Middle East.	类似地，2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击让美国修订了一系列监控法律，政府监视普通美国老百姓变得更加容易了。 当然，更不用说美国还发动了至今仍在中东制造浩劫的全球反恐战争。


By contrast, after the March 11, 2004, bombings of Madrid’s train system, which left nearly 200 dead, an “alliance of civilizations” arose in Spain to disarm extremism by building bridges with Islam.	相反，2004年3月11日马德里铁路系统遭到炸弹袭击并导致200人死亡后，西班牙出现了一个“文明的联盟”（alliance of civilizations），通过构建与伊斯兰教之间的桥梁来解除恐怖主义的武装。


This tolerant attitude toward the country’s Muslim minority endures to this day, despite another attack in August, on La Rambla, in the heart of Barcelona.	这一对西班牙穆斯林少数群体的宽容的态度一直持续至今，尽管8月份在巴塞罗那市中心的兰布拉大道（La Rambla）再次发生恐怖袭击。


It also seems to be reflected in Spanish politics.	这也体现在西班牙政治中。


While recent elections in virtually all other European countries have featured strong showings by far-right populists – Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) being the latest to make major gains – Spain (and neighboring Portugal) have remained seemingly immune.	几乎其他所有欧洲国家，最近的选举中都表现出极右翼民粹主义崛起之势——德国另类选择党（AfD）是最近的例子——但西班牙（以及相邻的葡萄牙）似乎对极右翼民粹主义免疫。


Today, Spain enjoys considerable economic dynamism, with one of the highest growth rates in Europe.	如今，西班牙经济活力相当强劲，增长率名列欧洲前茅。


But, in recent years, it has suffered economic pain and skyrocketing unemployment, which reached 27% in 2013.	但在最近几年中，它经历了经济痛苦和畸高的失业率，2013年曾经达到27%。


According to conventional wisdom, the combination of economic hardship and immigration is a recipe for Euroskepticism and xenophobia.	根据传统智慧，经济艰难和移民形成的合力必然会产生疑欧主义和仇外主义。


Yet neither of the two major political forces that have emerged in Spain in recent years, Ciudadanos and Podemos, has so much as a whiff of right-wing authoritarian tendencies, nor anti-European bombast.	但这两股主要政治力量最近几年在西班牙都难觅踪迹，西班牙公民党（Ciudadanos）和社会民主力量党（Pedomos）几乎没有右倾极权主义的倾向，也从来不大放反欧厥词。


Indeed, Ciudadanos is a centrist, business-friendly party; Podemos represents discontented urban middle-class youth with a left-leaning ideological profile.	事实上，公民党是一个中间道路亲商政党，而社会民主力量党代表的是思想左倾的失望的城镇中产阶级青年。


Both are vocally anti-racist and pro-immigrant.	这两个政党都打反种族主义和亲移民的牌。


Spain’s resilience to far-right populism probably has deep historical roots.	西班牙对极右翼民粹主义的抵抗力可能有其深刻的历史根源。


The country took shape during the Middle Ages in a dialectical process of interfaith relations, and its integration into the European Union stemmed from an overwhelming consensus on the need to suppress the ghosts of Francisco Franco’s dictatorship, following his death in 1975.	西班牙形成于中世纪，脱胎自辩证的宗教间关系过程，其之所以加入欧盟，是因为其人民在1975年弗朗哥死后形成了压倒性的共识，认为必须镇压其独裁统治的阴魂。


Of course, the memory of dictatorship does not always suppress nostalgia for quasi-fascist experiments.	当然，独裁的记忆未必总能够镇压住对准法西斯主义实验的向往。


Recollections of military rule in the 1970s haven’t curbed the rise of the far-right Golden Dawn in Greece; nor has the memory of Admiral Miklos Horthy’s quasi-fascist regime in interwar and World War II-era Hungary impeded support for Viktor Orbán’s illiberal, xenophobic regime.	20世纪70年代军管的记忆没能遏制希腊极右翼政党金色黎明（Golden Dawn）的崛起； 对米克洛斯·霍尔第（Miklos Horthy）将军在一战后至二战时期的准法西斯制度也没有阻挡欧尔班的反自由仇外政权在匈牙利得势。


In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Front is the child of the Vichy experiment, and in Germany, the AfD has overcome the legacy of Hitler.	在法国，玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）的国民阵线（National Front）是维希实验的产物，而在德国，AfD也克服了希特勒的遗产。


The absence of such political nostalgia in Spain may be explained partly by the fact that a brutal three-year civil war preceded the establishment of Franco’s dictatorship in 1939.	西班牙之所以没有出现这些政治反覆，可能部分是因为一个事实：在1939年弗朗哥建立独裁之前，这里经历了一场为期三年的残酷内战。


That experience nurtured a strong pacifist sentiment among the Spanish public, which endures to this day.	这场实验在西班牙公众中间种下了强烈的和平主义情绪，延续至今。


Some 90% of Spaniards – more than any other Western population – opposed the Iraq War, which their government supported.	大约90% 的西班牙人——比任何其他西方国家的比例都要高——反对西班牙政府所支持的伊拉克战争。


Spain’s unique resistance to right-wing populist forces may also reflect the nature of Spain’s transition to democracy after Franco’s death.	西班牙对右倾民粹主义力量的独特的抵抗力也许也体现在弗朗哥死后西班牙民主转型的性质中。


Conservative groupings, whose origins lay in Francoism, actually served as vital building blocks of Spain’s democracy.	源于弗朗哥主义的保守派集团事实上成了西班牙民主的基石。


Some, like the now-ruling People’s Party (PP), have over time shifted toward the center to become more typical conservative European parties, much like the UK’s Conservatives or Germany’s Christian Democratic Union.	其中一些群体，如目前执政的人民党（PP），逐渐转向了中间道路，成为比较典型的保守派欧洲政党，就像英国保守党和德国基督教民主联盟。


Crucially, the PP has made this move without losing voters who lean further to the right – the kind of voters who presumably would lead a backlash of right-wing populism.	关键的是，人民党在实现这一转变的同时并没有失去变得更加右倾的选民——这类选民往往成为右倾民粹主义兴起的先锋。


This differs sharply from the experience of the 1930s, when moderates’ failure to attract a large enough share of the Spanish right fueled deepening polarization and, ultimately, civil war.	这与20世纪30年代的实验形成了鲜明对比，当时，温和派没能吸引足够多的西班牙右翼，导致了极化加深并最终爆发内战。


This is not to say that Spain is a utopia of social unity.	这并不是说西班牙是一个社会团结的乌托邦。


On the contrary, the country is now confronted with a major challenge, as domestic forces – in particular, the would-be separatists of Catalonia’s autonomous regional government – attempt to dismember the country.	相反，这个国家目前正面临一个重大挑战，国内力量——特别是潜在的加泰罗尼亚自治区政府中的分离主义者——想要分裂国家。


Yet the PP has staunchly defended Spanish unity, dismissing Catalonia’s independence referendum as unconstitutional and deploying police to stop the vote from taking place (at times in lamentably brutal ways).	但人民党坚决捍卫了西班牙的统一，宣布加泰罗尼亚独立公投违宪，并派遣警察阻止投票进行（可以有时候手段有些残暴）。


The message is clear: the conflict in Spain is among natives, not against non-natives.	个中信息是明确的：西班牙冲突是本土人民之间的冲突，而不是针对外来人口的冲突。


And, indeed, though immigrants represent about 10% of Spain’s population, immigration is simply not a contentious issue anywhere in the country – perhaps partly because a large share come from Latin America, and thus share cultural and linguistic traits with indigenous Spaniards.	事实上，尽管移民占了西班牙人口的10%左右，但放眼西班牙全国，移民根本不是一个争议话题——也许部分原因在于大部分移民来自拉丁美洲，因此与土生土长的西班牙人有着共同的文化和语言。


The absence of any backlash against the one third of Spain’s immigrants who are Romanians and Moroccans probably reflects their low visibility in society.	从未发生过任何针对占西班牙移民数量三分之一的罗马尼亚人和摩洛哥人攻击，这也许反映了他们在西班牙社会中没有什么存在感。


Even as other European conservatives have flirted with anti-immigrant posturing in an attempt to stave off populist threats, Spain’s PP has done no such thing.	即使其他欧洲保守派纷纷摆出一副反移民的姿态来抵挡民粹主义的威胁，西班牙人民党也无动于衷。


Meanwhile, its European credentials are strong.	与此同时，其欧洲立场也非常坚定。


In a country where, according to an Elcano/Demos study, only 10% of the population would want to leave the EU  – compared with 22% in France and 45% in the UK – this is unlikely to change.	根据一项Elcano/Demos研究，只有10%的西班牙人希望退出欧盟——而法国为22%，英国为45%——因此，这一点不太可能改变。


For Europeans, Spain now represents a different kind of fantasy than in days past.	对欧洲人来说，如今的西班牙代表着一种与昔日不同的幻想。


It demonstrates that, even as a country’s ethnic composition changes, as it faces terrorist attacks and a deep recession, it can resist the siren song of extremism.	它证明，即使一个国家的民族成分发生了变化，即使它面临恐怖袭击和深度分离，也能够抵挡极端主义的诱惑。


The Disunited States of American Gun Control	美利坚控枪合不众国


LONDON – The Las Vegas massacre and its aftermath are pure Americana.	伦敦—拉斯维加斯大屠杀及其后果是典型的美国事件。


A deranged person lugs nearly two dozen high-tech assault weapons to a 32nd-floor hotel room to spray death upon concertgoers in a mass murder and suicide.	一位精神失常的人，带着二十多支高科技突击武器来到32层的酒店房间，向楼下参加音乐会的人群吐出死亡的火舌，造成大量人员伤亡，自己也饮弹自尽。


In response, the culture wars flare anew, with gun-control advocates in pitched battle against gun enthusiasts.	事后，文化战争再度兴起，控枪派与拥枪派隔空对峙。


Yet there is consensus on one deep truth: nothing much will change.	但在一个深度真相上，已经有了共识：什么都不会改变。


After a week of televised, heart-wrenching funerals, American life will go on until the next massacre.	令人心碎的电视直播葬礼过去一周，美国人的生活就会一切照旧，直到下一场大屠杀来临。


Mass violence is deeply rooted in American culture.	群体暴力深深地植根于美国文化。


America’s European settlers committed a two-century-long genocide against the native inhabitants, and established a slave economy so deeply entrenched that only a devastating civil war ended it.	美国的欧洲定居者们对土著居民进行了一场长达两个世纪的种族灭绝，还建立了根深蒂固的奴隶经济，最后通过一场灾难性的内战才终结。


In almost all other countries, even Czarist Russia, slavery and serfdom were ended by decree or legislation, without a four-year bloodletting.	在几乎所有其他国家，即使是沙皇时代的俄国，奴隶和农奴制度也是由诏书或立法终结，根本不需要一场长达四年的杀戮。


When it was over, America established and enforced a century-long system of apartheid.	内战结束后，美国建立并实施了长达一个世纪的种族隔离制度。


To this day, America’s homicide and imprisonment rates are several times higher than Europe’s.	时至今日，美国的蓄意杀人罪和入狱率也比欧洲高出数倍。


Several large mass shootings occur each year – in a country that is also waging several seemingly endless wars overseas.	造成大量伤亡的枪击案每年都要发生多次——与此同时，这个国家还在海外进行着多场看不到头的战争。


America is, in short, a country with a past history and current stark reality of racism, ethnic chauvinism, and resort to mass violence.	简言之，美国的历史和现实充斥着赤裸裸的种族主义、民族沙文主义和群众暴力的现实。


The Las Vegas shootings make clear once more the need to ban assault weapons.	拉斯维加斯枪击案再一次清楚地表明，必须禁止突击武器。


When America had such a ban, from September 1994-September 2004, it helped to limit mass shootings; yet Congress failed to renew the ban, owing to intense lobbying from gun enthusiasts.	当美国实施这一禁令的时候，即1994年9月到2004年9月期间，大规模枪击案得到了遏制； 但国会没能延长这一禁令，原因是拥枪派的密集游说。


Nor is the ban about to be reinstated any time soon at the federal level.	而在联邦层面，恢复这一禁令短期无望。 禁止“撞火枪托”（bump stocks）有一点希望；


A prohibition against “bump stocks,” the device used by the Las Vegas killer to enable his semi-automatic rifles to fire like fully automatic weapons, appears possible; but there will be little more federal action than that.	但除此之外很难再有联邦层面的行动。 拉斯维加斯枪击犯就是使用撞火枪托将使他的半自动步枪能够像全自动武器那样开火。


When Australia banned assault weapons in 1996, mass shootings stopped abruptly.	1996年，澳大利亚禁止了突击武器，大规模枪击案一夜之间销声匿迹。


America’s gun lovers reject such evidence, and mass shootings like the one in Las Vegas serve only to reinforce their belief that firearms are their only true protection in a dangerous world.	美国爱枪人士拒绝接受这一证据，而类似于拉斯维加斯的大规模枪击案让他们更加相信，火器是他们在危险的世界中的唯一凭借。


According to compelling recent survey data, the attachment to guns is especially intense among less-educated white Republican men residing mainly in rural and suburban areas in the South and Midwest – the same demographic that forms the core of support for President Donald Trump.	最新调查数据无可辩驳地表明，拥枪情绪在受教育程度较低、主要居住在南方和中西部农村和郊区地带的白人共和党中间尤其热烈——这批人也是支持特朗普总统的核心力量。


Despite the deep ideological divisions in the country, there is a glimmer of hope.	尽管美国存在深刻的意识形态分歧，但仍有希望之光。


Under the US Constitution, states have the authority to ban assault weapons and regulate firearms (though not to ban handguns and rifles outright, given the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Second Amendment’s “right to bear arms”).	根据美国宪法，州有权禁止突击武器并监管火器（尽管因为最高法院对宪法第二修正案“持有武器的权利”的解释，不能完全禁止手枪和步枪）。


My own state, New York, already bans assault weapons, as do a handful of other states.	我本人所在的纽约州已经禁止了突击武器，其他多个州也是如此。


Rather than fighting another ill-fated battle in Washington, it is more promising to encourage many more states to exercise their prerogatives.	与其在华盛顿大一场注定要倒霉的战争，不如去鼓励更多的州行使自己的权力，这样做希望更大。


States that do will have lower rates of mass shootings, more secure citizens, and more vibrant economies.	禁止突击武器的州，大规模枪击案发生率更低，公民感到更加安全，经济也拥有更大活力。


Las Vegas will suffer not only from the trauma of the recent massacre, but also from a diversion of tourism and conferences, at least until Nevada cracks down on assault weapons and can guarantee visitors’ safety.	拉斯维加斯不但将因为最近发生的大屠杀事件的创伤影响，还将因为旅游业和会展业的转移而蒙受损失，至少在内华达州决定对突击武器采取行动、能够确保游客安全之前是如此。


America today doesn’t just have red (conservative) states and blue (progressive) states, but de facto red countries and blue countries, that is, distinct regions with distinct cultures, heroes, politics, dialects, economies, and ideas of freedom.	今天的美国不仅有红州（保守派）和蓝州（进步派），事实上还有红国和蓝国之分，两者之间的文化、英雄、政治、话语、经济和自由的概念相去甚远。


In New York City, freedom means not having to fear that the thousands of strangers sharing the city’s sidewalks and parks with you on any given day are carrying deadly weapons.	在纽约市，自由意味着你不必担心与你共享这座城市人行道和公园的千万陌生人会掏出一把致命武器。


In Texas or Las Vegas, freedom is the comfort of carrying your trusty firearms anywhere you like.	在德克萨斯州或拉斯维加斯，自由就是能够方便地在任何场所携带你所信任的火器，只要你喜欢。


It’s time to let red states and blue states go their own way.	是时候让红州和蓝州各走各的路了。


We don’t need to fight another civil war to agree on an amicable and limited move to much looser linkages across the states.	我们不需要再来一场内战才能同意和平而有限地放松州与州之间的联系。


In this, the conservatives have it right: Let’s reduce the power of the federal government and turn more revenues and regulations back to the states, subject to the constitutional limits on the division of powers and fundamental rights.	在这方面，保守派也有可取之处：减少联邦政府的权力，把更多岁入和监管，根据宪法对权力分割和基本权利的限制，还给各州。


That way, each side of the culture wars can move closer to its preferred outcomes without impeding the other side from doing the same.	如此，文化战争中的各方都可以更加接近自己所想要的结果，而不必迫使另一方做同样的事。


My own state would thrive in such a looser federation, using its increased margin of maneuver to tighten its own regulations and to scale up its social services with the savings in taxes now paid to the federal government.	我本人所在的州也将从更松散的联邦中获益，利用扩大了操作空间加紧监管、增加社会服务，资金可以来自节省下来的上缴给联邦政府的税金。


And the weaker federal government would mean fewer US “wars of choice” in the Middle East.	而联邦政府变弱意味着美国在中东的“选择战争”更少。


At some point, the US will end up with federal gun control legislation.	总有一天，美国会有联邦控枪立法。


When more Congressmen come to realize that their own lives are on the line – which, sadly, they are – we will finally see national action.	当更多国会议员意识到他们自己的生命也系于此时——悲哀的是，的确如此——他们终将着眼于全国行动。


Two members of Congress have already been shot this decade (Gabrielle Giffords in 2011 and Steve Scalise earlier this year).	在这个十年中，已有两位国会议员遭遇枪击身亡，即2011年的加布里埃尔·吉福尔兹（Gabrielle Giffords）和今年早些时候的史蒂夫·萨卡利斯（Steve Scalise）。


For now, however, members of Congress will remain caught in the political crossfire of mad gunmen and pro-gun lobbyists.	但目前国会议员仍然夹在疯狂的抢手和拥枪游说集团中间进退两难。


This is terrifying, but sadly the case.	情况就是如此可怕又可悲。


In Trump’s America, gun violence and instability are being stoked daily.	在特朗普的美国，枪支暴力和动荡每天都在加剧。


A rapidly implemented, national-scale solution would be ideal.	迅速实施全国规模的方案是最理想的情况。


But until that happens, more US states should be encouraged to choose gun sanity for themselves.	但在此之前，应该鼓励更多的州选择自己的明智的控枪之道。


Patenting Immaculate Conception?	无原罪怀胎专利？


HAARLEM – In 1899, the German-American scientist Jacques Loeb engineered the asexual reproduction of sea urchins through artificial parthenogenesis (the manipulation of egg cells to enable embryonic development without fertilization).	哈勒姆——1899年，德裔美籍科学家雅克·勒布通过人工单性生殖（即在未受精情况下操控卵子细胞以促成胚胎发育）实现了海胆的无性繁殖。


His speculation about complete parthenogenesis in mammals – not to mention his use of the term “immaculate conception” to describe the process – prompted public concern about whether scientists should be “playing God.”	他关于哺乳动物完全无性生殖的推论——更不用说他使用了“无原罪怀胎”一词来形容上述过程——引发了公众关于科学家是否应当“扮演上帝”的忧虑。


With the International Stem Cell Corporation (ISCC) seeking patents in Europe for a technology that produces stem cell lines from the parthenogenetic activation of an unfertilized ovum, the time has come to answer that question.	随着国际干细胞公司（ISCC）在欧洲为一项激活未受精卵细胞单性生殖制造干细胞株的技术申请专利，现在已经是时候回答这个问题。


The question is how.	关键在于如何回答这一问题。


Problems with the patenting of parthenogenetically activated cells are nothing new.	为经过激活的单性生殖细胞申请专利并不是什么新鲜事。


Such cells resemble human embryos, which, under European Union patent law, cannot be patented.	上述细胞类似于人类胚胎，而按照欧盟专利法的规定，人类胚胎不允许申请专利。


Following a ruling by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in 2011 that those cells constitute human embryos, patent applications for parthenogenetic cells in the United Kingdom and other countries have been delayed and even rejected.	继2011年欧洲法院裁定上述细胞构成人类胚胎后，英国和其他国家均延迟甚至拒绝为单性生殖细胞申请专利。


(The ISCC does hold patents for its stem cells in the United States.)	（国际干细胞公司在美国的确拥有干细胞专利。 ）


But on December 18, 2014, the ECJ reversed its 2011 ruling, determining that an unfertilized human ovum stimulated by parthenogenesis “does not constitute a human embryo, if it does not in itself have the inherent capacity of developing into a human being.”	但2014年12月18日，欧洲法院推翻了其2011年的裁定，认定通过单性生殖刺激形成的未受精人类卵子“不构成人类胚胎，如若其本身不具备成为人的内在能力。


The ECJ based its ruling on written (unpublished) observations submitted by EU member states.	”欧洲法院根据欧盟成员国提交的（未发表的）书面观察报告作出了这项裁定。


The UK High Court then remitted the application to the UK Intellectual Property Office, which granted the patent in October.	英国高等法院此后将申请移交给英国知识产权局，该局于10月核准了这项专利。


The ECJ did not rule explicitly that parthenogenesis of human ova is patentable.	欧洲法院并未明确裁定人类卵子单性生殖可以授予专利。


It did not examine whether parthenogenesis constituted “a process for the cloning of a human being,” which would not be patentable under EU law.	法院并未就单性生殖是否构成“对人类的克隆过程”展开调查，如果构成克隆则按照欧盟立法不允许授予专利。


And it did not consider whether the activated egg cell – a “parthenote” – counts as a germ cell, which also cannot be patented in the EU (though it did pose the question to the applicants at the hearing).	法院也并未研究被激活卵细胞——即单性生殖单倍体——是否构成生殖细胞，后者在欧盟同样不允许申请专利（尽管法院确实在听证会上对申请者提出了这个问题）。


The national court and the patent office did not, as far as we can establish from their websites, examine these exclusions from patentability either.	根据我们对相关机构网站的研究，国家法院和专利机构也并未审核是否存在上述专利要件的排除因素。


Nor did they consider that parthenotes develop until the blastocyst embryonic stage, harboring the capacity for full attachment.	他们也没有研究单性生殖一旦发育到胚囊胚胎阶段是否具备完全的着床能力。


But even if the ISCC’s patent applications are not excluded on these grounds, there is another potential roadblock for applicants: Under European law, an invention can be patented only if its commercial exploitation is deemed not to controvert “ordre public” or morality.	但即使国际干细胞公司的专利申请不因上述理由而遭到否决，对申请者而言还存在另一个潜在障碍：因为欧洲法律规定，只有认定为不违反“公共秩序”或道德的发明商业利用才允许被授予专利。


As Loeb pointed out more than 100 years ago, when it comes to inventions involving bodily materials and biological processes, moral questions are difficult to answer.	就像勒布在100多年前所指出的那样，很难回答牵扯到人体材料和生物过程发明牵涉的道德问题。


They should not, it now seems clear, be left to the patent office or even the courts.	有一点现在似乎已经明确，那就是它们不应是专利局甚至法院回答的问题。


In fact, the European Patent Office (EPO) is not particularly committed to assessing the moral implications of the patents it grants; in its view, “ordre public” would be violated only in the extreme case of a truly outrageous invention.	事实上，欧洲专利局（EPO）从未特别关注过评估其所授专利的道德影响问题； 在它看来，只有发明真正离谱的极端情况才涉及破坏“公共秩序”的问题。


As a result, while the application procedure allows for third parties to submit to the patent office their observations on the claimed invention’s patentability, it is unlikely to spur a genuine assessment of an application’s moral implications.	因此，尽管申请程序允许第三方向专利局提交其对申请专利发明的观察结果，但不太可能真正引发评估某专利申请的道德含义。


An opposing third party would have to shoulder the entire burden of proof, while the patent office avoided taking any real action, in order to avoid “presumptuous” interference in the public debate.	对立的第三方将不得不承担全部的举证责任，而专利局则以避免专横干涉公众辩论为由，避免采取任何实际行动。


As for the courts, the recent case highlighted the absence of a procedural mechanism to ensure consideration of a patent’s morality.	至于法院方面，最近这起案例凸显了衡量专利道德影响的程序性机制的缺失。


So who should answer questions about an invention’s implications for “ordre public”?	那么究竟谁应当回答与发明相关的“公共秩序”影响问题？


The answer is straightforward: the public itself.	答案很简单：公众本身。


Inclusive, transparent, and effective public debate about these potentially consequential issues demands, first and foremost, that citizens are well informed.	就有关这些潜在重要问题展开全面、透明、有效的公众辩论首先需要民众了解相关信息。


After all, when it comes to technological advances relating to biological materials and processes, this is only the beginning.	毕竟，在涉及到与生物材料及进程相关的技术进步问题时，公众知情权仅仅是一个开始。


On December 24, 2014, just six days after the ECJ’s ruling, scientists published the results of their efforts to make rudimentary egg and sperm cells starting from a person’s skin cells.	2014年12月24日，就在欧洲法院裁决6天后，科学家发表了他们从人类表皮细胞制造基本卵子和精子细胞的研究成果。


There are also pending patent applications for a novel form of genetic manipulation – CRISPR/Cas9-mediated gene editing – which a team of Chinese researchers has already attempted to use to edit the genome of a human embryo.	同时申请专利的还有一种新形式的基因操控——以CRISPR/Cas9为介质的基因编辑——某中国研究小组已尝试利用这项技术对人类胚胎基因组进行编辑。


Notably, under the ECJ’s “inherent capacity” definition, the embryos used in that experiment would not constitute a human embryo, and thus would not be excluded from patentability.	值得注意的是，根据欧洲法院的“内在能力”定义，该实验所使用的胚胎并不构成人类胚胎，因此同样有资格申请专利。


As the International Summit on Human Gene Editing recently stated, it would be irresponsible to proceed with a clinical use of germline editing without broad societal agreement.	正如人类基因编辑国际峰会最近所指出的那样，在达成广泛的社会共识前就继续进行对生殖细胞编辑的临床应用是不负责任的行为。


The same should go for patenting it.	同样的标准也应当适用于专利申请领域。


If, based on an understanding of the processes and their implications, a majority of a country’s citizens find them to controvert morality, democratic principles would demand a government response.	如果基于对程序及其影响的了解，一个国家的大部分民众认定某项研究有违道德，则政府必须按照民主原则做出回应。


In line with the EU’s 1998 biotech directive, debates should occur on a country-by-country basis.	按照欧盟1998年颁布的生物技术法，应当以国家为基础来进行讨论。


Already, European states have made conflicting decisions on these topics.	欧盟国家已经就这些问题作出了相互矛盾的决定。


In Switzerland, a substantial majority of voters decided in 2004 to ratify the Stem Cell Research Act, which regulates how human embryonic stem cells are produced and used in research.	在瑞士，2004年相当多数选民决定批准干细胞研究法，该法就如何在研究过程中对人类胚胎干细胞进行制造和应用做出了规定。


Swiss stem-cell law is now more restrictive than that of, say, the UK, but less restrictive than that of Germany.	瑞士干细胞法目前比英国更加严格，但相比德国限制还是要少一些。


Specifically, Swiss law prohibits the development of parthenotes, the derivation of stem cells from parthenotes, and the use of such stem cells.	具体来讲，瑞士法律禁止培育单性生殖单倍体、从单性生殖单倍体提取干细胞以及对上述干细胞的应用行为。


It also excludes from patentability processes for parthenogenesis using human germ cells, as well as parthenotes created by such processes.	它还禁止用人类生殖细胞进行单性生殖，以及用源于上述过程的单性生殖单倍体来申请专利。


These prohibitions are based not just on the need to protect human embryos, but also on concerns relating to the availability of donated egg cells, on which parthenogenesis depends – an issue that neither the courts nor the patent office have considered.	上述禁令不仅从保护人类胚胎的需求出发，还牵扯到作为单性生殖基础的捐赠卵细胞的供应问题——无论法院还是专利局都从未考虑过这一问题。


A country-by-country, public-driven approach to assessing the morality of inventions involving biological materials and processes would reinforce both EU law and democratic principles.	在各国展开涉及生物材料和进程发明道德问题的公众评估会进一步强化欧盟法律和民主原则。


As recent rulings have made clear, the current system is far from adequate when it comes to upholding ordre public.	正如近期裁决已经表明的那样，在涉及维护公共秩序的问题时目前的制度还远非完美。


Preventing the Next African Famine	防止非洲再次爆发饥荒


NEW YORK – After falling for more than a decade, the number of hungry people in the world is rising once again.	纽约——在经过十多年的下降后，世界陷入饥饿的人数正再次上升。


This year was marked by the worst global food crisis since World War II, with South Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria either experiencing famine or teetering on the brink.	今年爆发了二战后全球最严重的粮食危机，南苏丹、也门、索马里和尼日利亚徘徊在崩溃边缘或者爆发饥荒。


More than 20 million people in those four countries alone remain severely food-insecure, and the United Nations estimates that $1.8 billion in immediate humanitarian aid is needed.	仅上述四国就有超过两千万人仍面临严重的粮食短缺，而据联合国估计需要提供价值18亿美元的紧急人道主义援助。


Political instability and conflict have contributed heavily to this food insecurity, but insufficient food production has also likely heightened tensions and exacerbated hunger.	政治动荡和冲突严重加剧了粮食短缺的状况，但粮食生产不足也很可能加剧了紧张和饥饿。


In Sub-Saharan Africa, where three of the four countries on the verge of famine are located, crop yields have long lagged behind the rest of the world, owing to poor farm inputs, such as low-quality seeds and fertilizer.	在四个国家中有三个徘徊在饥荒边缘的撒哈拉以南非洲，农作物产量长期以来一直在世界上相对落后，因为这里的农业投入严重不足，例如种子和化肥的质量较差。


Investing in agriculture is one of the most effective ways to end hunger and improve political stability.	投资农业是结束饥荒和改善政治稳定的一种最有效的方式。


There are 50 million smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa alone, and they support many millions more.	仅撒哈拉以南非洲地区就生活着5，000万小型农户，而他们所种植的农产品维持着成百上千万人的生活。


Countries on the continent that have invested heavily in agricultural development and smallholder farmers have been successful at avoiding famine.	非洲大陆上投入巨资发展农业和扶持小型农户的国家已经成功地避免了饥荒。


Consider the example of Ethiopia, which experienced one of the worst famines in history in the mid-1980s.	以埃塞俄比亚为例，这个国家在20世纪80年代中经历了有史以来最严重的一次饥荒。


An estimated one million people died during that crisis, which was caused by a combination of conflict and drought, and it took many years for the country to recover.	估计有一百万人死于这次危机，造成危机的原因是冲突以及干旱，这个国家用了很多年才从危机中逐步恢复。


Today, Ethiopia is peaceful, but drought conditions have returned.	今天，埃塞俄比亚和平安宁，但干旱气候却再次发生了。


In 2016, the country suffered its driest growing season in 50 years.	2016年，该国经历了50年来最干旱的作物生长季。


And yet Ethiopia did not experience famine last year.	但去年埃塞俄比亚却没有爆发饥荒。


There were hungry people, to be sure, but disaster was avoided.	毋庸置疑有人挨饿，但大规模灾难却没有发生。


Oxfam attributes this to the fact that the government was better prepared to deliver food and water to millions.	乐施会认为究其原因是政府随时准备为成百上千万人提供粮食和饮水。


The country has also vastly improved its farming infrastructure, and new irrigation and drinking water systems provide rural areas with easy access to clean, safe water sources.	该国的农业基础设施也大幅改善，而新的灌溉和饮水系统为农村地区提供了清洁、安全的水源。


For more than a decade, the Ethiopian government has made agricultural development a top priority.	十多年来，埃塞俄比亚政府将发展农业确定为政策的重中之重。


In 2010, it created the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency, a public entity dedicated to boosting the productivity of the agriculture sector.	2010年，政府创建了埃塞俄比亚农业转型机构，这家公共机构以提高农业部门生产率为主要任务。


As the noted British author and Africa researcher Alex de Waal has noted, “Politics creates famine, and politics can stop it.”	就像著名英国作家兼非洲问题研究专家亚历克斯·德瓦尔所指出的那样，“政治能造成饥荒，但政治也能消灭饥荒。


Ethiopia proves his point.	”埃塞俄比亚证明了他的正确性。


While domestic and international contributions still flow during relief efforts, it is Ethiopia’s long-term investments that have increased the country’s resilience.	虽然救灾工作仍然离不开国内和国际捐助，但埃塞俄比亚的长期投资已经使得该国的适应能力有所提高。


An increase in strategic agricultural investments, from African donors or international sources, could help other countries in the region reap similar rewards.	增加来自非洲或国际捐助国的农业战略投资可以协助地区其他国家获得类似的回报。


Climate change is making such investments even more urgent, as extreme weather events – both flooding and droughts – are becoming more common throughout Sub-Saharan Africa.	随着水灾及旱灾等极端天气事件在撒哈拉以南非洲地区变得越来越普遍，气候变化正在导致上述投资变得更为必要。


Even without government support, however, farmers can take modest and cost-effective steps immediately to mitigate climate shocks.	但即使没有政府的支持，农民也可以立即采取成本效益相对较好的温和措施来缓和气候变化。


By using smart farming techniques such as drought-resistant seeds, intercropping, composting, and crop diversification, farmers can blunt the effects of extreme weather at very low costs.	通过使用像抗旱种子、间作、堆肥和作物多样化等智慧农业技术，农民可以以极低的成本来钝化极端天气事件所带来的影响。


Trees are one of the most effective tools we have for fighting climate change, and they also make economic sense for small farmers.	树木是我们应对气候变化最有效的工具之一，而他们对小型农户也具有经济意义。


A farmer who invests $2 in seedlings can make a profit of more than $80 in ten years, when some of the full-grown trees can be cut and sold.	一个农民如果投资2美元购买树苗，可以通过砍伐并出售完全长成的树木而在十年内取得超过80美元的利润。


Trees also benefit the environment while they are growing – by absorbing carbon, improving soil health, and preventing erosion.	树木在生长的同时也通过碳吸收、改善土壤质地和防止侵蚀等对环境产生益处。


Farmers who have an asset base of trees, livestock, or cash generated by selling crop surpluses are better able to withstand weather shocks.	拥有树木、牲畜或通过出售余粮来兑换现金的农户能更好地抵御天气的影响。


And, as our organization is currently demonstrating in six African countries, farmers can build their asset bases with training and financial support.	而且，就像我所在机构目前在非洲六国所展示的那样，农户可以通过培训和财政支持来建立自己的资产基础。


That is why we believe African governments and bilateral donors should deepen their investments in programs that provide farmers with the skills to produce long-term crops, especially trees, sustainably.	因此，我们相信非洲政府和双边捐助机构应加大项目投资，培训农户掌握能够可持续种植长期作物、尤其是树木的技巧。


Inexpensive practices – such as planting crops in rows, weeding correctly, and applying fertilizer in micro-doses – are also proven methods to increase crop production dramatically.	廉价的常规操作——如成行种植作物、正确除草以及微量施用化肥——同样被事实证明是大幅增加作物产量的有效方法。


With the effects of climate change expected to intensify in coming years, Africa’s smallholder farmers must prepare now for a more turbulent future.	随着气候变化影响预计将在未来几年中加剧，非洲的小型农户必须现在就准备迎接未来的动荡。


The United States has historically been the world’s largest donor to global food security programs, but the future of this leadership role under President Donald Trump is uncertain.	美国一直以来是世界最大的全球粮食安全计划捐助国，但唐纳德·特朗普总统领导下美国在这方面的领导角色是不确定的。


While global food security initiatives enjoy bipartisan support in the US Congress, the Trump administration’s proposed foreign aid budget recommends deep funding cuts to these programs.	尽管全球粮食安全计划在美国国会得到了两党的支持，但特朗普政府拟议中的外国援助预算建议大幅削减援助这些计划的资金量。


As US support waivers, African and European governments, foundations, institutional donors, and practitioners must be ready to step in to help African farmers build long-term resiliency.	随着美国支持的动摇，非洲和欧洲政府、基金会、捐助机构和从业人员必须随时准备协助非洲农户建设长期适应性。


Investing in agriculture is the most efficient way to improve food security in Africa, while ensuring that people on the front lines of the fight against climate change can maintain thriving economies and sustainable, healthy environments.	农业投资是改善非洲食品安全的最为有效的方式，同时还要确保处在气候变化斗争第一线的民众能够保持繁荣的经济发展和可持续的健康环境。


Only through careful planning, and by following the lead of countries like Ethiopia, can Sub-Saharan Africa address the underlying causes of hunger.	只有通过认真策划并学习埃塞俄比亚等国的榜样，撒哈拉以南非洲地区才能解决造成饥荒的根本理由。


Although food security is a complex problem to solve, preventing future famines doesn’t have to be.	尽管解决粮食安全问题的过程十分复杂，但防止未来饥荒却不一定是这样。


The Mis-Measure of Development	错误的发展评估


BERMUDA – A new scorecard that purports to grade countries on development progress tells us little about how we are faring against humanity’s biggest challenges.	百慕大——旨在评估国家发展进程的全新计分卡几乎无法显示人类在应对最重大挑战时取得了什么样的成就。


Instead, it highlights the shortcomings of today’s unfocused global development agenda.	相反，它却充分凸显出今天重点不集中的全球发展计划所存在的缺陷。


The major new report, led by Jeffrey D. Sachs and issued by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Solutions Network and Germany’s Bertelsmann Stiftung, provides a color-coded dashboard to demonstrate how well every country is doing at implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – the hugely important agenda that succeeded the highly effective Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 18 months ago.	由杰弗里·萨克斯牵头并由联合国可持续发展解决方案网络和德国贝塔斯曼基金会共同发布的一份全新重要报告提供了一份颜色编码图，显示各国在落实可持续发展目标（SDGs）——也就是18个月前替代曾非常有效的千年发展目标（MDGs）的极其重要的计划进展状况。


Green indicates success across all indicators of a goal; yellow, orange, and red point to increasing distances from achieving the goal.	绿色表示在某一目标涉及的全部指标领域取得成功； 而黄色、橙色和红色则表示离实现目标的距离越来越大。


You might expect to discover from the rating how well rich countries are allocating their development aid, and how successfully poorer countries are spending their own funds, to make sure more people have access to education, healthcare, food security, and a safe, clean environment – the planet’s fundamental development challenges.	你可能期待评分能反映出富裕国家分配发展援助和贫困国家使用本国资金，以确保更多民众能享有教育、医疗、粮食安全，以及安全洁净环境的进展状况——这才是我们这个星球所面临的最根本的发展挑战。


Instead, the index shows us that Cambodia – where more than 20% of the population lives on less than $1.90 per day – gets a green, outperforming an orange Spain on implementation of SDG 1: “End poverty in all its forms everywhere.”	相反，该指数却显示超过20%人口每天靠不到1. 9美元生活的柬埔寨评分为绿色，在执行第1条可持续发展目标——“结束一切形式的贫困”方面胜过了橙色的西班牙。


On government efficiency, the report claims that Italy is doing worse than all countries except Venezuela – much worse than Burundi or even Syria – in a ranking topped by Singapore and, more surprisingly, Rwanda.	在政府效率方面，报告称意大利比除委内瑞拉外的所有国家政府都更糟糕——其糟糕程度远超布隆迪乃至叙利亚——而该指标排名靠前的是新加坡，还有更令人惊讶的，卢旺达。


The United States scores a surprising number of reds and yellows, ranking 42nd out of 157 countries overall.	美国的得分令人惊讶地出现了大量的红色和黄色，在总共157个国家中名列第42。


In fact, the US fails to achieve a single green ranking for any of the 17 SDGs, sharing this dubious honor with only Greece, Italy, Latvia, Mexico, Spain, and Turkey, among OECD nations.	事实上，美国未能在17个可持续发展目标中的任何一个排名达到绿色，经合组织中其他获此殊荣的国家仅有希腊、意大利、拉脱维亚、墨西哥、西班牙和土耳其等少数几个。


(War-torn Yemen, by contrast, scores green for both “Climate Action” and “Partnership for the Goals”.)	（相反，饱受战火蹂躏的也门却在“气候行动”和“目标合作关系”等两项指标上得到了绿色。 ）


America-bashing is popular and easy.	冲击美国既受人欢迎又非常轻松。


But US taxpayers do give nearly a quarter of all the money spent on direct development aid by rich countries.	但美国纳税人确实贡献了富国直接发展援助近1/4的份额。


A report that gives the world’s biggest donor the lowest possible rating for “Partnerships for the Goals” would seem to have some underlying issues.	一份给世界最大捐助国打出“目标合作关系”最低评分的报告看起来恐怕是有问题的。


(Myanmar, Uzbekistan, and Saudi Arabia all score green marks in this category.)	（缅甸、乌兹别克斯坦和沙特阿拉伯的此类评分达到了绿色。 ）


A larger problem is behind the report’s oddities: today’s development agenda is trying to be all things to all people.	报告怪现象的背后反映出一个更大的问题：那就是今天的发展计划正在试图囊括所有人所有事。


The MDGs worked because they were few in number and sharply focused.	千年发展目标相对有效是因为其数量较少而且重点集中。


The SDGs comprise an eye-watering 169 targets, which means there is no focus at all.	可持续发展目标却涉及令人难以想象的169个目标，也就是说，根本没有哪项目标得到了重点关注。


The US gets a less-than-stellar yellow for SDG 3, which covers health and wellbeing.	涉及健康和福利的可持续发展目标第三条，美国仅拿到不那么漂亮的黄色。


Why?	你要问原因？


Life expectancy in the US is relatively high, and neonatal and maternal mortality rates are relatively low.	美国人的预期寿命相对较长，新生儿和孕产妇死亡率也是相对较低的。


It turns out that the overall US score is dragged down by the poor mark given for the country’s high number of traffic deaths.	事实证明美国的整体评分被该国巨大的交通事故死亡人数所得的糟糕评分拉低了。


But conflating car accidents in Ohio with neonatal mortality rates and HIV prevalence merely muddies the global development agenda.	但把俄亥俄州的交通事故与新生儿死亡率和艾滋病毒感染率混为一谈只不过是搞乱了全球发展计划。


And Australia gets a red on the “End Hunger” SDG, not because of significant starvation or micronutrient deficiency, but because its obesity rates are too high and its extensive agriculture has lower yields.	而澳大利亚在“结束饥饿”的可持续发展目标上得分为红色，这不是因为有许多人饿死或缺乏微量营养元素，而是因为该国肥胖率太高，而大规模农业产量也是相对较低的。


Obesity and agricultural efficiency in rich countries are certainly important.	富裕国家的肥胖和农业效率问题当然重要。


But in the attempt to make sure both developing and developed countries have problems to solve, we’re losing sight of what really matters: Some 795 million people in the world do not have enough food to lead a healthy, active life.	但在试图确保发达和发展中国家都有问题需要解决的同时，我们却忽略了真正重要的事务：全世界约 7. 95亿人因得不到足够的食物而无法健康和积极的生活。


That’s about one of every nine people on Earth.	这意味着地球上每九个人中就有一个。


The vast majority live in developing countries, where 12.9% of the population is undernourished.	其中绝大多数生活在发展中国家，而营养不良的民众比例占那里总人数的12. 9%。


Solving micronutrient deficiencies was one of 19 specific targets identified by a panel of Nobel laureate economists who studied the SDG targets for the Copenhagen Consensus, the think tank I direct, and identified the most cost-effective ways to help people, protect the planet, and boost prosperity.	解决微量元素缺乏问题是哥本哈根共识研究可持续发展目标的一个由诺贝尔获奖经济学家组成的专家小组所确定的19个具体目标中的一个，这个智囊团由我领导，找到了帮助民众、保护地球和促进繁荣的成本效益最高的办法。


Targets such as achieving universal access to contraception and family planning, ending tuberculosis by 2030, freer global trade, ending fossil-fuel subsidies, and protecting coral reefs would help the environment and improve billions of lives.	像普遍避孕和计划生育、到2030年消灭结核、进一步放开全球贸易、结束化石燃料补贴和 保护珊瑚礁等目标将有助于改善环境和数十亿人的生活。


Analysis showed that focusing on the panel’s top 19 targets would achieve about four times more in terms of welfare gains than would trying to distribute funds among all 169 targets.	分析表明重点攻克专家小组前19项目标所获得的福利收益将是资助所有169项目标的约四倍还多。


Instead, governments are laboring with the sheer number of SDGs.	相反，各国政府正被可持续发展目标的庞大数量搞得焦头烂额。


As the SDG Index admits, “countries appear to struggle with implementing the full range” of indicators.	可持续发展目标指数承认：“各国似乎都在竭尽全力执行全部指标。 ”


Countries themselves are now doing the prioritization that the UN failed to do.	各国现在正在自己完成联合国未能完成的排序任务。


They cannot possibly achieve all 169 targets at once, so they focus on only some of them.	它们不可能一次性实现全部169项目标，因此它们只把注意力集中在其中某些工作。


The real danger is that their selection will not be those targets that could do the most good per dollar, pound, rupee or peso spent, but those that have the most media appeal, NGO attention, or corporate interest.	真正的危险在于它们所选择的不是那些花费单位美元、英镑、卢比和比索能够实现最大效益的目标，而是那些最受媒体、非政府组织关注或最符合企业利益的目标。


We need to strip back the development agenda to its core issues, and focus on those areas where each dollar spent can achieve the most for humanity.	我们必须将发展计划剥离到核心区域，并集中精力攻克那些花费单位美元能为人类带来最大效益的目标。


Only by doing so can a scorecard help us maximize development progress.	只有这样，记分卡才能帮助我们实现发展进步最大化。


A Wary Return to Raqqa	小心翼翼的回到拉卡


BERLIN – In mid-October, the Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed, predominantly Kurdish militia with ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey, “liberated” my hometown, Raqqa, from Islamic State (ISIS) fighters.	柏林——10月中旬，由美国支持的以库尔德民兵为主并与库尔德工人党有着千丝万缕联系的叙利亚民主力量从伊斯兰国战士手中“解放”了我的家乡拉卡。


Arabs, a majority of the region’s population, had little to do with ISIS’s ouster.	占当地人口绝大多数的阿拉伯人在伊斯兰国下台的过程中几乎没有发挥任何作用。


In a city where locals have long been relegated to second-class status, the triumph of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) – the Syrian branch of the PKK – has kindled fears that history is repeating.	在一座当地人长期被贬为二等公民的城市，库尔德工人党叙利亚分支民主联盟党（PYD）的胜利已经引发了人们对历史重演的担忧。


Activists from Raqqa have long referred to our dilapidated city as an “internal colony,” owing to its long history of economic, political, and social marginalization at the hands of Syrian governments.	拉卡活动人士长期以来一直把我们这座破烂不堪的城市称为“内部殖民地”，因为拉卡在叙利亚政府手中长期遭受经济、政治和社会边缘化。


In the early 1970s, Raqqa – then small and poor – was nonetheless moving forward and flourishing.	在20世纪70年代早期，当时还又小又穷的拉卡却依然经历着发展和繁荣。


Schools were multiplying as attendance surged.	学校如雨后春笋般兴起，入学儿童的数量也在不断激增。


Other public services were improving as well, and parents believed that their children would lead more prosperous lives than they and previous generations had.	其他公共服务也不断改善，我的父母因此相信他们的子女将比他们和他们的祖辈过上更加繁荣的生活。


This was certainly true of my parents, who sacrificed a lot to raise their nine children.	对我的父母来讲情况确实如此，他们为了养育九个子女牺牲了很多。


They were not happy when, in the 1970s, their older sons became communists, strongly opposing the brutal regime of Hafez al-Assad, President Bashar al-Assad’s father.	因此，20世纪70年代，当他们的长子成为共产主义者，强烈反对巴沙尔·阿萨德总统的父亲哈菲兹·阿萨德的野蛮政权时我的父母非常难过。


But this was not a farfetched transformation in a city where people were assuming new identities – such as Nasserist, Baathist, Islamist, or communist – downplaying their regional and tribal origins.	但这在民众逐渐认同某种新身份的城市并不是一种牵强的转变——民众分化为纳赛尔的支持者、叙利亚社会党党员、伊斯兰分子或共产主义分子——同时淡化了他们的地区起源和部落血统。


But by the time I was arrested in 1980, as a university student in Aleppo, the future my parents once envisioned had begun to vanish.	但在1980年我作为阿勒颇一名大学生被捕时，我父母曾经梦想的未来已经开始消失了。


Five years later, another son was arrested, followed by a third six months after that.	五年后，我父母又有一名儿子被捕，六个月后，第三个儿子又被捕了。


Our mother died of cancer while the three of us were in prison, hardly exceptional for Syrians at the time.	我们三个在狱中服刑的时候我们的母亲死于癌症，这样的经历对当时的叙利亚人来说并没有什么特别之处。


We were among many from across the political and ideological spectrum who were arrested and tortured for daring to oppose the Assad regime.	我们不过是来自各种政治和意识形态背景、因为敢于反对阿萨德政权而被捕并遭受折磨的民众中的一份子。


Syrians suffered from extreme repression, with people denied the right to assemble or even to discuss issues publicly, and the country was reduced to a political desert.	叙利亚人遭到极端压迫，人们甚至无权集会或公开讨论问题，这个国家已经沦为一片政治沙漠。


I didn’t get out of jail until 1996, when I was 35.	直到1996年我才出狱，当时我35岁了。


Returning to Raqqa then, after 16 years behind bars, I was struck by what Assad’s regime – 26 years in power at that time – had done to my city.	经过16年监狱生活后又回到拉卡，我被当时已经执政26年的阿萨德政权对我的城市的所作所为所震惊了。


There was no trace of political life, no public debate, no young people talking about the books they were reading or the films they were watching.	这里没有政治生活的痕迹、没有公开辩论、没有年轻人谈论他们阅读的书籍或观赏的电影。


Before my arrest, Raqqa had three cinemas.	我被捕前，拉卡有三家影院。


By the time I was released, there was only one, used mostly for weddings.	而我被释放时，影院只剩下一家，而且主要是作为婚礼之用。


The cult of Hafez had, by then, replaced Syrians’ free will.	那时，对哈菲兹的崇拜已经取代了叙利亚民众的自由意志。


The elder Assad’s images were ubiquitous; among the first landmarks to greet me upon my release was a huge statue of the president.	老阿萨德的形象无所不在，我出狱后迎接我的第一个地标式建筑就是总统的巨大雕像。


The walls were covered in vapid quotations from the hollow speeches of “the master of the nation.”	墙上写满了“国家主人”空洞讲话中索然无味的语录。


Raqqa was in rapid decline by then, and the city’s despair would intensify over the next decade.	那时拉卡已经在快速衰落，而且这座城市今后十年会越来越陷入绝望。


By 2007, even Abdullah Dardari, the deputy prime minister for economic affairs and a chief architect of Syria’s economic reforms (which were upended by the 2011 civil war), described Raqqa as a long-forgotten city.	到2007年，就连叙利亚经济事务副总理兼（2011年被内战打断的）经济改革总设计师阿卜杜拉·达尔达里也将拉卡形容为长期被遗忘的城市。


The arrival of ISIS only hastened the colonization of my ephemeral metropolis.	伊斯兰国的到来不过是加速了这座转瞬即逝的城市陷入殖民化。


Sadly, even with ISIS gone, the sense of siege remains.	可悲的是，即使伊斯兰国已经覆灭，对拉卡的围困并没有解除。


Western forces and their proxy, the PYD militia, whose real loyalty is to their leaders in Turkey, now control Raqqa.	西方势力和他们的代理民主联盟党民兵真正效忠的是土耳其领袖，拉卡的权力现在控制在他们手中。


One of the first things that our new PYD liberators/occupiers did after declaring victory was to display their own foreign identity by installing a huge portrait of the PKK’s jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan.	我们新的民主联盟党解放者/占领者在宣布胜利后所做的第一件事就是修建一座库尔德工人党被监禁领袖阿卜杜拉·奥贾兰的巨型雕像。


Not a single Syrian symbol was offered in tandem.	他们没有修建任何标志性建筑来代表叙利亚。


Worse, after a military operation that destroyed 90% of the city and killed some 1,800 residents, the city’s new rulers have not even begun to remove the bodies buried beneath the rubble.	更糟的是，在一次摧毁了90%的城市并杀死约1，800名居民的军事行动后，这座城市新的统治者甚至都没有开始清理废墟下所埋葬的死尸。


Instead, long-time residents have been prevented from returning to their homes.	相反，长期居民却被阻止返回自己的家中。


For those of us with long memories, it is impossible not to draw comparisons with past rulers – the Assad regime and ISIS.	对于我们这些有着长久记忆的人来说，很难不对阿萨德政权和伊斯兰国这些过去的统治者进行比较。


(The fascist organization that the Western media calls ISIS – a name that confers on it Islamic credentials – is more likely to be called Daesh in the Islamic world, a name coined by my brother Khaled, who was in jail with me in the 1980s.)	（西方媒体称之为伊斯兰国的法西斯组织——这个名称反映了伊斯兰教信仰——在伊斯兰世界被称为达伊沙的可能性更大，我的兄弟哈立德自创了这个名字，哈立德在20世纪80年代曾与我一起被囚禁在狱中。 ）


What is different this time is the seemingly inevitable march toward ethnic conflict.	但这次不同的是看似不可避免的民族冲突进程。


The city’s previous victims are its latest victims as well.	这座城市之前的受害者同样也是最近的受害者。


The exploited, impoverished, underrepresented, despised, and dehumanized population is living under even worse conditions, more marginalized than ever.	被剥削、贫困、缺乏代表、歧视和遭受非人待遇的民众生活条件甚至更加恶劣，比以往更加边缘化。


The locals are being dealt with as tribes, according to the modern colonial model.	按照现代殖民模式，当地人正在被当作部落。


Raqqa’s “liberation” is not ours.	拉卡的“解放”不是我们的。


The population is more estranged than ever.	解放后的统治阶层比以往任何时候都更疏远民众。


Our past struggles for freedom and justice are being ignored.	我们过去追求自由和正义的斗争正在遭到忽视。


The locals who fought against ISIS, and who were made to disappear at its hands (including my brother Feras, abducted in July 2013), are still missing.	与伊斯兰国作斗争、并在伊斯兰国手中消失的当地人（包括我的兄弟费拉斯，他在2013年7月遭到绑架）至今仍然没有找到。


And ISIS has served as the ideal monster for many colonial occupiers eager to appear less villainous than they are.	而伊斯兰国则成为众多殖民占领者的贬低对象，他们迫不及待的希望证明自己不像伊斯兰国那样邪恶。


Tackling Non-Inclusive Growth	应对非包容性增长


MILAN – Several years ago, I had the privilege of chairing a commission on growth in developing countries.	米兰—几年前，我有幸主持了一个发展中国家增长委员会。


Its members had significant economic, political, and social policymaking experience in the developing world, and despite their differences, they all agreed on certain crucial points.	委员会成员拥有大量发展中国家经济、政治和社会决策经验，尽管他们各有不同，但在一些关键点上意见统一。


Two still stand out in my memory.	其中有两点让我至今印象深刻。


First, as we concluded in our final report, non-inclusive growth patterns will always ultimately fail.	首先，我们撰写的最终报告认为，非包容性增长模式最终永远要失败。