On April 7, 2009, Moldova made headlines when peaceful protests against unfair elections were hijacked by a small number of provocateurs who attacked the parliament building and presidential palace.	在2009年4月7日，摩尔多瓦登上了全世界媒体的头条，因为一场抗议不公正选举的和平示威被一小撮别有用心的破坏分子所利用，演变成一场对国会大楼和总统府的围攻。


The media termed this the “Twitter Revolution,” which was of course an exaggeration.	媒体将这次事件定名为“推特革命”，这其实是有点夸张的。


Yet one year later, and despite the actions of those provocateurs, a new democratic government is in charge.	一年之后的今天，尽管破坏分子依然大肆行动，但一个新生民主政府已经掌握了政权。


The parliament building is not yet rebuilt, but the government is trying hard to rebuild Moldova as a democratic country with legitimate aspirations to join the European Union.	虽然国会大楼至今仍未重建，但政府正在努力将摩尔多瓦重建成一个有志于加入欧盟的民主国家。


The protests of April 2009 were triggered by the Communist Party’s claim to have won a third consecutive term in power, following an aggressive election campaign with widespread abuses.	2009年的那场示威爆发的原因，是经过一场舞弊丛生的争议性选举之后，执政的摩尔多瓦共产党政府宣布自己第三次赢得了政权。


The then Communist government cracked down on protesters, leaving at least one person dead, while numerous allegations of widespread torture further traumatized and divided Moldovan society.	在示威行动开始之后，共产党政府开始镇压示威者并导致至少一名示威者身亡，随后大规模出现的虐待指控又进一步破坏和分裂了摩尔多瓦社会。


Many in Moldova and Europe believed that another authoritarian state was emerging in the European neighborhood.	许多欧洲和摩尔多瓦人都因此相信，在欧洲周边地区，又要出现另一个专制国家了。


But the country’s democratic forces halted the Communist Party’s attempt to bulldoze its way back into power.	但这个国家的民主力量成功遏制了共产党用威吓手段重夺政权的企图。


The Communists needed the vote of just one MP in order to perpetuate their domination of Moldovan politics for another term by electing their president in parliament.	共产党只需在投票中再赢得一个议员席位就能在在国会选举出自己的总统，从而继续把持着对摩尔多瓦政治的主导权。


They failed to get that vote, and early elections were called.	但最终他们丢掉了那个席位，随后提前选举程序启动。


As a result, a four-party “Alliance for European Integration” came to power last September.	结果在去年9月，一个由四党派组成的“欧洲一体化联盟”接管了政权。


The Alliance is working hard to consolidate Moldova’s democracy, the rule of law, and economic reform, as well as to press ahead with European integration. But there is a difficult legacy to overcome.	该联盟致力于巩固摩尔多瓦的民主，法治和经济改革，同时也在向欧洲一体化方向迈进。


The global economic crisis not only hit the country hard, but, because of irresponsible electioneering, the previous government did not even try to fight it. Reckless populist promises left a gaping 16%-of-GDP budget deficit.	但联盟同时也从前任政府手中接手了一个烂摊子，全球经济危机严重冲击了该国经济，但由于不负责任的选举操作，前任政府不但没有尝试去克服困难，还许下众多收买民心的空头支票，巨额的政府预算赤字已经占到GDP的16%。


Fortunately, we managed to avoid economic collapse, thanks to support from the International Monetary Fund, while reducing the deficit by half.	但幸运的是，在国际货币基金组织的协助下，我们将赤字总额削减了一半，成功避免了经济崩溃。


In late March, Moldova was also promised €1.9 billion by the European Union, the United States, the IMF, the World Bank, and other donors to support a strategy of reforms under the banner “Rethink Moldova.”	在三月末，摩尔多瓦再次从欧盟，联合国，世界货币基金组织，世界银行和其他援助方处得到了19亿欧元的援助承诺，将在“摩尔多瓦新思维”的旗号下推行整个国家的战略改革。


The media are now much freer.	在摩尔多瓦国内，媒体的自由程度已经得到了很大提高。


After eight years of media monopolization, in the last month and a half two new TV channels have been launched.	在经历了8年的媒体垄断之后，过去一个半月以内已经有两个新电视台开播。


Investigations against some of the police and judges responsible for the human rights abuses committed last April have been launched.	针对去年4月警方和司法机关侵犯人权行为的调查也已经启动。


The government is taking quick steps to de-monopolize the economy and break the nexus between economic and political power that characterized the previous government.	政府正在迅速采取手段打破经济过度集中的局面并切断经济与政治权力之间的利益关联——这都是前任政府所特有的。


We are also working to improve the business environment and investment climate by cutting red tape and simplifying the administrative burden on foreign investors.	我们同时也努力打击官僚作风，减少外国投资者的行政负担，改善经济氛围和投资环境。


Relations with the EU have gained significant momentum.	摩尔多瓦与欧盟的关系也取得了巨大的进步。


We are working on a new Association Agreement, which would anchor Moldova in the European space.	我们正在一份新的联合协议上进行合作，这可以确保把摩尔多瓦锁定在欧洲的势力范围之内。


We will also sign a far-reaching free-trade agreement with the EU.	我们同时也将与欧盟签订一份包含广泛内容的自由贸易协定。


Such an agreement makes sense because more than 50% of Moldova’s trade is already with the EU, while roughly 70% of Moldova’s citizens and virtually all of its political parties support European integration.	这将是一份明智的协议，因为摩尔多瓦50%的贸易额都是来自于欧盟地区，而且70%的摩尔多瓦公民以及差不多所有国内政党都是支持欧洲一体化的。


What matters deeply for Moldova’s citizens, though, is to move towards a visa-free regime with the EU.	对摩尔多瓦人来说，影响最大的莫过于实现本国与欧盟之间的免签证待遇。


We are already working on implementing all the necessary technical conditions.	对此我们正努力满足所有必要的技术性条款。


From January 1, 2011, we will switch to biometric passports.	从2011年1月1日起，我国将全面使用生物护照（一种内置芯片包含持有者生物特征的电子护照）。


Our customs officials and border guards are working actively with an EU mission to modernize our border infrastructure, and we are progressing fast in border demarcation with our only eastern neighbor, Ukraine.	海关和边防人员正与一个欧盟代表团通力合作，升级边检设施，同时在与我们唯一的东部邻邦乌克兰的边界划定工作也取得了迅速进展。


Moldova will be an increasingly safe neighbor for the EU and a good partner in managing migration flows.	到时摩尔多瓦将成为欧盟一个好邻居，同时也是欧盟控制境外移民流动的好伙伴。


We have also re-launched settlement talks concerning the breakaway region of Transdniestria, where the only viable basis for a solution is to make Moldova ever more economically and politically attractive to the region’s residents.	我们同时也就德涅斯特河沿岸（Transdniestria）地区的独立问题重新启动了谈判，而唯一能达成解决方案的基础就是令摩尔多瓦在经济和政治上更具吸引力，从而吸引该地区居民倒向摩尔多瓦。


From this perspective, every step that brings us closer to the EU is also a step towards resolving this so-called “frozen conflict” – perhaps the only European secessionist conflict that can be solved through EU soft power alone.	从这一点看来，向欧盟靠拢的每一步都是迈向最终解决这场“冷冲突”的一步——甚至可能��通过欧盟软实力得到解决的唯一一起欧洲分离主义冲突事件。


Moldova’s reemergence from authoritarian rule after eight years is the result of elections and parliamentary procedures.	摩尔多瓦之所以能从8年的专制统治中重新站起来，是选举和议会程序所结出的硕果。


This makes Moldova the only post-Soviet state (aside from the Baltic countries) with an uninterrupted cycle of transfers of power through elections since 1991.	这令到摩尔多瓦成为自1991年苏联解体以来唯一一个通过选举成功实现政权更替的前苏联加盟共和国（除波罗的海三国之外）。


In a sea of pessimism about democracy in the EU’s neighborhood, some winds are still blowing in the right direction.	在欧盟周边国家一片对民主的悲观叹息声中，摩尔多瓦的存在就如同一阵清新的风。


Closing the Skills Gap	弥合技能缺口


WASHINGTON, DC – In an age of skyrocketing unemployment, it may seem reasonable to assume that companies do not have to worry about finding workers.	华盛顿—在失业一飞冲天的现时代，一个看似合理的假设是公司不必担心找不到工人。


But a recent McKinsey survey of more than 2,800 employers worldwide has underscored just how flawed that perception is.	但最新的麦肯锡调查询问了全世界2 800多家企业，发现这一假设是完全错误的。


Four out of ten employers said that they cannot find workers to fill entry-level positions in their firms, with more than one-third of respondents saying that their businesses are suffering from a lack of appropriate skills in the labor market.	四成企业表示找不到工人从事入门岗位工作，三分之一以上的受访者表示劳动力市场上找不到契合自己企业的技能。


Meanwhile, young people worldwide are struggling to find jobs.	与此同时，全球年轻人在苦苦寻找工作。


While the eurozone crisis helps to explain why more than half of young people in Greece and Spain are unemployed, rapidly growing economies like South Africa and Nigeria are experiencing similar rates of youth joblessness.	欧元区危机有助于解释为何希腊和西班牙一大半年轻人找不到工作，但像南非和尼日利亚这样的增长迅猛的经济体也在经历类似的年轻人失业。


In the Middle East and North Africa, one in three young people are unemployed.	在中东和北非，三分之一的年轻人没有工作。


And, in the United States, roughly half of bachelor’s degree-holders under the age of 25 were jobless or underemployed upon graduation last year.	而在美国，去年有大约一半的25岁以下学士学位拥有者在毕业时没有找到工作。


All of this points to the costly skills mismatch at play in today’s economy.	所有这些都指向给当今经济造成巨大代价的技能不匹配问题。


In the US alone, the opportunity cost of failing to improve education would amount to $1.7 trillion by 2030.	光是在美国，改善教育方面的失败的机会成本到2030年就将高达1. 7万亿美元。


Similarly, by bridging its growing skills gap, China could augment its GDP by $250 billion by 2020.	类似地，通过弥合扩大的技能缺口，到2020年中国可以增加2 500亿美元的GDP。


So why isn’t more being done to ensure that young people acquire the skills they need?	那么，为何在确保年轻人获得他们需要的技能方面我们不能做得更好？


The problem is rooted in divergent perceptions among the various players in the labor market.	问题就在于劳动力市场各种参与者之间的观点分歧。


More than 70% of the educational institutions surveyed by McKinsey believe that their graduates are ready for the job market; more than half of employers and young people disagree.	在麦肯锡所调查的教育机构中，70%以上认为他们的毕业生为就业做好了准备； 但超过一半的雇主和年轻人不这么看。


Closing this gap requires that educators and employers work together more closely.	弥合这一分歧需要教育者和雇主更紧密地合作。


Employers should communicate their requirements to educators; educators need to give their graduates the tools that will enable them to meet these requirements.	雇主应该就自己的要求与教育者沟通； 教育者必须教给毕业生能够满足这些要求的工具。


The problem is missed connections, so the solution is to make more of them.	问题在于沟通不畅，因此解决办法就是做更多的沟通。


But such synchronization will not be easy to achieve.	但雇主和教育者的同步并不容易达成。


One-third of employers never interact with education providers, while only 15% do so once a month or more.	三分之一的雇主从来不与教育提供者互动，每个月互动一次以上的更是只有15%。


Both sides would benefit from building strong reciprocal ties, with employers telling educators what they need (and even helping to design curricula and offering their employees as faculty) and educators providing students with practical experience and hands-on learning.	建立更紧密的互动关系能让双方都受益——雇主告知教育者他们需要什么（甚至帮助设计课程和派遣员工担任教员），教育者向学生提供实践经验和实习。


In fact, some promising initiatives are underway.	事实上，一些大有希望的计划已在进行当中。


Many employers in the auto, tourism, advanced manufacturing, and shipbuilding industries have taken to “pre-hiring” young people – that is, guaranteeing them a job if they complete a rigorous training program.	汽车、旅游、先进制造和造船等行业的许多企业已开始“预雇”年轻人——即在他们完成严格培训计划的情况下保证向他们提供工作。


A useful example is the cooperation between Brazil’s state-owned energy giant Petrobras and Prominp – a coalition of government agencies, businesses, trade associations, and labor unions – aimed at unleashing the full potential of the country’s oil and gas sector.	一个有益的例子是巴西国有能源巨头巴西石油（Petrobras）和巴西石��天然气产业动员计划（Prominp）之间的合作。 Prominp是由政府机构、企业、贸易协会和工会组成的联合体，目标是充分释放巴西石油天然气部门的潜力。


First, Petrobras and Prominp develop a five-year personnel projection in specific skill areas, such as shipyard welding, pipefitting, and petroleum engineering.	首先，巴西石油和Prominp就具体的技能——比如船坞焊接、管接和石油工程——制定五年期人才规划项目。


Prominp then identifies an education provider to co-develop an appropriate curriculum with selected companies and train 30,000 people annually.	然后由Prominp物色教育提供者与指定公司合作开发合适的课程，每年培训3万人。


Petrobras pays 90% of the costs, and the government covers the rest.	巴西石油承担90%的成本，其余由政府负担。


But such initiatives remain too few in number and too narrow in scope to resolve the global skills mismatch.	但这些计划数量太少，方向太窄，不足以解决全球技能不匹配问题。


Moreover, developing effective programs requires far more data about young people’s journey from education to employment than is currently available.	此外，制定有效的计划需要非常大的关于年轻人从学习走向就业过程的数据，目前还无法获得足够的数据。


Governments can play a critical role in collecting the data needed to determine which skills are in demand and what kind of training is effective.	政府可以在收集确定哪些技能需求大、哪种培训有效果所需要的数据方面起到关键作用。


For example, Colombia’s Labor Observatory tracks students’ progress – including where they attended university, what they studied, when and where they were first employed, what their starting salaries were, and whether they were promoted – for up to five years after graduation.	比如，哥伦比亚劳动观测台（Labor Observatory）跟踪学生毕业后最多五年内的进步过程——包括他们上哪些大学、学习什么、何时在哪个单位找到第一份工作、起薪如何、是否得到升职等。


Prospective students can use this information to gain a far more accurate picture of their future prospects.	未来学生可以利用这一信息更加准确地获知自己的未来前景。


Of course, young people must become proactive if such schemes are to be effective.	当然，如果这些机制能够有效，年轻人必然会变得更加积极主动。


Fewer than half of the young people that McKinsey surveyed claimed to have even basic knowledge of average wages or the prevalence of job opportunities in their chosen field.	在接受麦肯锡调查的年轻人中，只有不到一半具有关于平均薪资水平或他们所选择的的领域的就业机会情况的基本认识。


Little wonder, then, that half of them were not convinced that their post-secondary studies had improved their employment opportunities.	因此，毫不奇怪他们中有一半的人不认为高等院校的学习改善了他们的就业机会。


Students must take ownership of their education.	学生必须自主掌握自己的教育。


Before enrolling in an academic or vocational program, prospective students should research job-placement rates and learn how and how often the institution interacts with employers.	在进入研究性或就业性学习计划前，准学生应该研究一下岗位占有率，了解一下学习机构如何和多频繁地与用人单位互动。


Furthermore, they should gain a comprehensive understanding of how they can build and demonstrate applied skills in their chosen field.	此外，他们应该全面了解他们如何在选定领域培养和证明应用技能。


More generally, they should use existing labor-market data to make better-informed choices.	更一般地讲，应该利用已有劳动力市场数据做出信息更全面的选择。


If the world continues on its current course, labor-market imbalances will worsen significantly in the coming years.	如果世界按照当前趋势发展下去，劳动力市场失衡将在未来几年中大大恶化。


Indeed, the world faces a potential shortage of 30-40 million college-educated workers in 2020, and a potential surplus of 95 million low-skilled workers.	事实上，到2020年，世界将面临3 000—4 000万大学学历工人缺口和9 500万低技能工人潜在过剩。


The economic benefits of rebalancing the global labor market are compelling; the human costs of failing to do so are enormous.	实现全球劳动力市场再平衡在经济上裨益无穷； 无法实现再平衡的人力损失不可估量。


The imperative for businesses, educators, governments, and young people to take action could not be stronger.	企业、教育者、政府和年轻人必须刻不容缓地马上行动起来。


An Accidental Currency War?	偶发货币战争？


LAGUNA BEACH – Six and a half years after the global financial crisis, central banks in emerging and developed economies alike are continuing to pursue unprecedentedly activist – and unpredictable – monetary policy.	拉古娜海滩—全球金融危机已经过去了六年半，新兴和发达经济体的央行还在追求前所未有的积极的、也是无法预测的货币政策。


How much road remains in this extraordinary journey?	这一反常之旅还会维持多久？


In the last month alone, Australia, India, Mexico, and others have cut interest rates.	光是在上个月，就有澳大利亚、印度、墨西哥和其他央行降低了利率。


China has reduced reserve requirements on banks.	中国降低了银行准备金要求。


Denmark has taken its official deposit rate into negative territory.	丹麦把官方存款利率降为负值。


Even the most stability-obsessed countries have made unexpected moves.	即使是最重视稳定的国家也采取了出人意料的动作。


Beyond cutting interest rates, Switzerland suddenly abandoned its policy of partly pegging the franc's value to that of the euro.	除了降低利率，瑞士还突然放弃了瑞郎部分盯住欧元价值的政策。


A few days later, Singapore unexpectedly altered its exchange-rate regime, too.	几天后，新加坡也出人意料地改变了汇率制度。


More consequential, the European Central Bank has committed to a large and relatively open-ended program of large-scale asset purchases.	随后，欧洲央行采取了规模庞大、相对限制更少的大规模资产购买计划。


The ECB acted despite a growing chorus of warnings that monetary stimulus is not sufficient to promote durable growth, and that it encourages excessive risk-taking in financial markets, which could ultimately threaten economic stability and prosperity (as it did in 2008).	越来越多的人警告货币刺激不足以提振持续增长，并且鼓励最终影响经济稳定与繁荣的金融市场过度冒险行为（2008年就是明证），尽管如此，欧洲央行仍然采取了行动。


Even the US Federal Reserve, which is presiding over an economy that is performing far better than its developed-world counterparts, has reiterated the need for "patience" when it comes to raising interest rates.	甚至美联储也重申需要“耐心”等待升息时机——美国的经济表现比其他发达国家好得多。


This stance will be difficult to maintain, if continued robust job creation is accompanied by much-needed wage growth.	这一立场很难维持，如果持续坚挺的就业创造与急需的工资增长同时出现的话。


This new round of central-bank activism reflects persistent concerns about economic growth.	这一新一轮央行积极主义反映了对经济增长的持久担忧。


Despite a once-unthinkable amount of monetary stimulus, global output remains well below potential, with the potential itself at risk of being suppressed.	尽管采取了此前不可想象的货币刺激，但全球产出仍显著低于潜力，而潜力本身也有遭到抑制的风险。


Making matters worse, weak demand and debt overhangs are fueling concerns about deflation in the eurozone and Japan.	更糟糕的是，需求不振和债务积压正在助长欧元区和日本的通缩忧虑。


Anticipating falling prices, households could postpone their consumption decisions, and companies could defer investment, pushing the economy into a downward spiral from which it would be very difficult to escape.	家庭预料价格将下跌，因此可能推迟消费决策，公司也因此可能推迟投资，导致经济陷入非常难以摆脱的下跌螺旋。


If weak demand and high debt were the only factors in play, the latest round of monetary stimulus would be analytically straightforward.	如果弱需求和高负债是唯一起作用的因素，那么最近的货币刺激措施在理论上是相当直观的结论。


But they are not.	但并非如此。


Key barriers to economic growth remain largely unaddressed – and central banks cannot tackle them alone.	经济增长的关键障碍仍然没有解决——而央行也无法独力解决它们。


For starters, central banks cannot deliver the structural components – for example, infrastructure investments, better-functioning labor markets, and pro-growth budget reforms – needed to drive robust and sustained recovery.	首先，央行无法给出带来持续强健复苏所需要的结构性要素——比如基础设施投资、运转更良好的劳动力市场和有利于增长的预算改革。


Nor can they resolve the aggregate-demand imbalance – that is, the disparity between the ability and the willingness of households, companies, and governments to spend.	它们也无法解决总需求失衡——即家庭、公司和政府的支出能力与支出意愿之间的差异。


And they cannot eliminate pockets of excessive indebtedness that inhibit new investment and growth.	它们也无法消除阻碍新投资和增长的过度负债。


It is little wonder, then, that monetary-policy instruments have become increasingly unreliable in generating economic growth, steady inflation, and financial stability.	因此，毫不奇怪货币政策工具在制造经济增长、稳定通胀和金融稳定等方面越来越不可靠。


Central banks have been forced onto a policy path that is far from ideal – not least because they increasingly risk inciting some of the zero-sum elements of an undeclared currency war.	央行被迫采取远远偏离理想状态的政策路径——因为它们日益可能刺激不宣而战的货币战争的一些零和要素。


With the notable exception of the Fed, central banks fear the impact of an appreciating currency on domestic companies' competitiveness too much not to intervene; indeed, an increasing number of them are working actively to weaken their currencies.	除了美联储这一显著例外，央行担心货币升值对国内公司的竞争力影响太大，因此不得不干预； 事实上，越来越多的央行积极引导货币贬值。


The "divergence" of economic performance and monetary policy among three of the world's most systemically important economies – the eurozone, Japan, and the United States – has added another layer of confusion for the rest of the world, with particularly significant implications for small, open economies.	世界上系统重要性最强的经济体——欧元区、日本和美国——经济表现和货币政策的“趋异”让世界其他地区更加摸不着头脑，特别是对小型开放型经济。


Indeed, the surprising actions taken by Singapore and Switzerland were a direct response to this divergence, as was Denmark's decision to halt all sales of government securities, in order to push interest rates lower and counter upward pressure on the krone.	事实上，新加坡和瑞士采取出人意料的动作也是对这一“趋异”的直接反应，丹麦亦然，其决定中止出售所有政府债券，以推低利率、抵抗克朗升值压力。


Of course, not all currencies can depreciate against one another at the same time.	当然，不可能所有货币都同时相对彼此贬值。


But the current wave of efforts, despite being far from optimal, can persist for a while, so long as at least two conditions are met.	但目前的动作尽管远远称不上最优选择，总归可以维持一段时间，只要满足至少两个条件。


The first condition is America's continued willingness to tolerate a sharp appreciation of the dollar's exchange rate.	第一个条件是美国继续愿意忍受美元汇率的急剧升值。


Given warnings from US companies about the impact of a stronger dollar on their earnings – not to mention signs of declining inward tourism and a deteriorating trade balance – this is not guaranteed.	考虑到美国公司已就它们所赚取的强势美元的影响发出了警告——更不用说入境游减少和贸易平衡恶化了——这一条件远非板上钉钉。


Still, as long as the US maintains its pace of overall growth and job creation – a feasible outcome, given the relatively small contribution of foreign economic activity to the country's GDP – these developments are unlikely to trigger a political response for quite a while.	但是，只要美国保持其总体增长和就业创造趋势——这是可以预见的结果，因为外国经济活动对美国GDP贡献相对较小——这些状况不会立刻造成政治压力。


Indeed, America's intricate trade relations with the rest of the world – which place households and companies on both sides of the production and consumption equation – make it particularly difficult to stimulate significant political support for protectionism there.	事实上，美国与世界其他地区之间的错综复杂的贸易关系——家庭和公司同时出现在生产和消费的两端——决定了煽动对保护主义的强力政治支持十分困难。


The second condition for broad-based currency depreciation is financial markets' willingness to assume and maintain risk postures that are not yet validated by the economy's fundamentals.	争相货币贬值的第二个条件是金融市场愿意给出并保持无法得到经济基本面支撑的风险偏好。


With central banks – the de facto best friend of financial markets these days – pushing for increasingly large financial risk-taking (as a means of stimulating productive economic risk-taking), this is no easy feat.	央行——近段时期以来，它们实际上是金融市场最好的朋友——推动着越来越大规模的金融冒险（以此作为刺激生产性经济冒险的手段），因此这并不容易。


But, given the danger that this poses, one hopes that they succeed.	但是，考虑到这其中蕴含的风险，我们希望它们能够成功。


In any case, central banks will have to back off eventually.	无论如何，央行最终必须收回政策。


The question is how hard the global economy's addiction to partial monetary-policy fixes will be to break – and whether a slide into a currency war could accelerate the timetable.	问题在于全球经济所依赖的局部货币政策疗法会以多么迅猛的势头打破——以及货币战争的爆发会不会加速这一时间表。


The Price Paradox	价格悖论


LONDON – In 1923, John Maynard Keynes addressed a fundamental economic question that remains valid today. “[I]nflation is unjust and deflation is inexpedient," he wrote.	伦敦—1923年，凯恩斯提出了一个至今仍有意义的经济学基本问题：“通货膨胀和通货紧缩是不恰当的，” 他写道，“在这两个东西中，也许通缩……更加糟糕；


“Of the two perhaps deflation is…the worse; because it is worse…to provoke unemployment than to disappoint the rentier.	因为引起失业比令食租者失望……更糟糕。


But it is not necessary that we should weigh one evil against the other."	但我们未必需要两劣相权。 ”


The logic of the argument seems irrefutable.	这一观点的逻辑似乎无懈可击。


Because many contracts are “sticky" (that is, not easily revised) in monetary terms, inflation and deflation would both inflict damage on the economy.	因为许多合同在你货币条件上“刚性”的（即不容易修改），所以通胀和通缩都会给经济造成伤害。


Rising prices reduce the value of savings and pensions, while falling prices reduce profit expectations, encourage hoarding, and increase the real burden of debt.	物价上升减少储蓄和退休金的价值，而物价下跌减少利润预期、鼓励囤积、增加债务的实际负担。


Keynes's dictum has become the ruling wisdom of monetary policy (one of his few to survive).	凯恩斯的观点已成为货币政策的圭臬（这也是他流传下来的少数思想之一）。


Governments, according to the conventional wisdom, should aim for stable prices, with a slight bias toward inflation to stimulate the “animal spirits" of businessmen and shoppers.	根据传统智慧，政府应该将目标定在稳定物价，略着重于通胀，以刺激商人和购物者的“动物精神”。


In the ten years prior to the 2008 financial crisis, independent central banks set an inflation target of about 2%, in order to provide economies with a price-stability “anchor."	在2008年金融危机前的十年中，独立央行制定的通胀目标是2%，这样做是为了为经济提供物价稳定之“锚”。


There should be no expectation that prices would be allowed to deviate, except temporarily, from the target.	应该不会有人预期价格能够偏离这一目标（除非是暂时性的）。


Uncertainty relating to the future course of prices would be eliminated from business calculations.	未来价格走势的不确定性应该从商业计算中去除。


Since 2008, the Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank have failed to meet the 2% inflation target in any year; the Bank of England (BoE) has been on target in only one year out of seven.	2008年以来，美联储和欧洲央行每一年都没有实现2%的通胀目标； 英格兰银行只在这七年的一年中实现了这一目标。


Moreover, in 2015, prices in the United States, the eurozone, and the United Kingdom are set to fall.	此外，在2015年，美国、欧元区和英国物价想必也会下降。


So what is left of the inflation anchor?	那么通胀锚还有何意义？


And what do falling prices mean for economic recovery?	下跌的物价对经济复苏又意味着什么？


The first thing to bear in mind is that the “anchor" was always as flimsy as the monetary theory on which it was based.	首先在脑中浮现的是“锚”总是不牢靠的，一如构建在其基础上的货币理论。


The price level at any time is the result of many factors, of which monetary policy is perhaps the least important.	任何时候的物价水平都是由诸多因素决定的，货币政策大概是其中最无关紧要的一个。


Today, the collapse in the price of crude oil is probably the most significant factor driving inflation below target, just as in 2011 it was the rise in oil prices that drove it above target.	如今，原油价格的崩溃也许是导致通胀低于目标的最主要因素，正如2011年油价上涨导致通胀高于目标。


As British economist Roger Bootle pointed out in his 1996 book The Death of Inflation, the price-cutting effects of globalization have been a much more important influence on the price level than the anti-inflation policies of central banks.	英国经济学家罗杰·布特尔（Roger Bootle）在其1996年的著作《通胀之死》（The Death of Inflation）中认为，全球化的减价效应对物价水平的影响远比央行的反通胀政策大。


Indeed, the post-crisis experience of quantitative easing has highlighted monetary policy's relative powerlessness to offset the global deflationary trend.	事实上，后危机时期的量化宽松经验凸显出货币政策在抵挡全球通缩趋势方面的相对无效性。


From 2009 to 2011, the BoE pumped £375 billion ($578 billion) into the British economy “to bring inflation back to target."	从2009年到2011年，英格兰银行向英国经济中注入了3,750亿英镑“试图让通胀回到目标值”。


The Fed injected $3 trillion over a slightly longer period.	美联储在略长的时间里注入了3万亿美元。


The most that can be claimed for this vast monetary expansion is that it produced a temporary “spike" in inflation.	这一巨量货币扩张带来的影响充其量只是让通胀暂时“突出”了一下。


The old adage applies: “You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink."	老话说得好：“你可以把马牵到水边，但你无法让它喝水。


People cannot be forced to spend money if they have good reasons for not doing so.	”你无法强迫人们花钱，如果他们有很好的不花钱理由的话。


If business prospects are weak, companies are unlikely to invest; if households are drowning in debt, they are unlikely to go on a spending spree.	如果商业前景渺茫，公司就不可能投资； 如果家庭深陷债务负担，它们就不可能大手大脚地花钱。


The ECB is about to discover the truth of this as it starts on its own €1 trillion program of monetary expansion in an effort to stimulate the stagnant eurozone economy.	欧洲央行很快就会发现这一真理——它即将开始1万亿欧元规模的货币扩张以刺激停滞的欧元区经济。


So what happens to the recovery if we fall into what is euphemistically called “negative inflation"?	那么，如果我们陷入被委婉地称为“负通胀”的现象时，复苏会有什么影响？


Until now, the consensus view has been that this would be bad for output and employment.	到目前为止，一致观点是这将不利于产出和就业。


Keynes gave the reason in 1923: “the fact of falling prices," he wrote, “injures entrepreneurs; consequently the fear of falling prices causes them to protect themselves by curtailing their operations."	凯恩斯在1923年就给出了理由：“物价下跌这一事实”，他写道，“伤害企业家； 因此，害怕物价下跌让他们收缩经营以保护自己。


But many commentators have been cheered by the prospect of falling prices.	但许多评论家对物价下跌的前景欢呼雀��。


They distinguish between “benign disinflation" and “bad deflation."	他们区分“良性低通胀”和“恶性通缩”。


Benign disinflation means rising real incomes for lenders, pensioners, and workers, and falling energy prices for industry.	良性低通胀意味着贷款人、退休金领取者和工人真实收入增加，以及工业用能源价格下降。


All sectors of the economy will spend more, pushing up output and employment (and sustaining the price level, too).	所有经济部门都会增加支出，提振产出和就业（并维持物价水平）。


By contrast, “bad deflation" means an increase in the real burden of debt.	相反，“恶性通缩”意味着债务实际成本上升。


A debtor contracts to pay a fixed sum in interest every year.	债务人合同写明每年都要偿付固定数量的钱。


If the value of money goes up (prices fall), the interest he pays will cost him more, in terms of goods and services he can buy, than if prices had stayed the same.	如果钱的价值增加（价格下跌），他所支付的利息成本就会比物价保持不变的情况更高（用他可以购买的商品和服务衡量）。


(In the reverse, inflationary case, the interest will cost him less.)	（反过来，在通胀环境下，利息成本就会更低。


Thus, price deflation means debt inflation; and a higher debt burden means lower spending.	）因此，物价通缩意味着债务通胀； 而更高的债务负担意味着缩减支出。


Given the huge levels of outstanding private and public debt, bad deflation, as Bootle writes, “is a nightmare almost beyond imagining."	由于未偿还私人和公共债务数量巨大，因此恶性通胀，布特尔写道，“是一个超越人类想象力的噩梦。 ”


But how can we stop benign disinflation from turning into bad deflation?	但我们如何阻止良性低通胀演变为恶性通缩？


Apostles of monetary expansion believe that all you have to do is speed up the printing press.	货币扩张派认为你所要做的无非是加速开动印钞机。


But why should this be any more successful in the future than it has been in the last few years?	但凭什么认为这样做在未来的效果会比过去几年中更好呢？


Avoiding deflation – and thus sustaining economic recovery – would seem to depend on one of two scenarios: either a rapid reversal in the fall of energy prices, or a deliberate policy to raise output and employment by means of public investment (which, as a byproduct, would bring about a rise in prices).	避免通缩——以及维持经济复苏——看起来取决于两种情形之一：要么能源价格跌势迅速逆转； 要么采取深思熟虑的政策，通过公共投资提高产出和就业（物价也会在此过程中上涨）。


But this would mean reversing the priority given to deficit reduction.	但这意味着减少赤字不再是重点。


No one can tell when the first will happen; and no governments are prepared to do the second.	无法获知第一种情形什么时候会发生； 也没有哪个政府准备走第二条路。


So the most likely outcome is more of the same: continued drift in a state of semi-stagnation.	因此最有可能的结果大概是老方一帖：在半停滞状态中继续漂泊。


Confronting the Fiscal Bogeyman	直面财政魔鬼


BERKELEY – The world economy is visibly sinking, and the policymakers who are supposed to be its stewards are tying themselves in knots.	伯克利—世界经济显然正在萎缩，本该成为世界经济守护神的决策者正在黔驴技穷。


Or so suggest the results of the G-20 summit held in Shanghai at the end of last month.	或者说上个月底的上海G-20峰会的结果表明了这一点。


The International Monetary Fund, having just downgraded its forecast for global growth, warned the assembled G-20 attendees that yet another downgrade was pending.	国际货币基金组织（IMF）刚刚降低了其全球增长预测，警告与会的G-20代表未来还可能继续降低预测。


Despite this, all that emerged from the meeting was an anodyne statement about pursuing structural reforms and avoiding beggar-thy-neighbor policies.	尽管如此，会议只产生了一份不痛不痒的声明，呼吁采取结构改革，避免以邻为壑政策。


Once again, monetary policy was left – to use the now-familiar phrase – as the only game in town.	货币政策再一次成为唯一的选择——这已经是老生常谈了。


Central banks have kept interest rates low for the better part of eight years.	在过去八年的大部分时间里，中央银行一直保持利率低位。


They have experimented with quantitative easing.	它们尝试了量化宽松。


In their latest contortion, they have moved real interest rates into negative territory.	最近它们又将真实利率降低到了负区间。


The motivation is sound: someone needs to do something to keep the world economy afloat, and central banks are the only agents capable of acting.	背后的动机很合理：需要有人做些什么让世界经济保持增长，而央行是唯一有行动能力的机构。


The problem is that monetary policy is approaching exhaustion.	问题在于货币政策正在耗尽。


It is not clear that interest rates can be depressed much further.	不清楚利率是否还能进一步大幅抑制。


Negative rates, moreover, have begun to impair the health of the banking system.	但是，负利率已经开始危害银行体系的健康。


Charging banks for the privilege of holding reserves raises their cost of doing business.	要求银行付钱换取持有准备金的特权增加了它们的营商成本。


Because households can resort to safe-deposit boxes, it’s hard for banks to charge depositors for safekeeping their funds.	由于家庭至少还能将钱存进保险箱，因此银行很难向存款人要求资金保管费用。


In a weak economy, moreover, banks have little ability to pass on their costs via higher lending rates.	此外，在经济疲软时，银行没有能力通过提高贷款利率转嫁成本。


In Europe, where experimentation with negative interest rates has gone furthest, bank distress is clearly visible.	欧洲推行负利率实验最力，银行困境已清晰可见。


The solution is straightforward.	解决方案显而易见。


It is to fix the problem of deficient demand not by attempting to further loosen monetary conditions, but by boosting public spending.	不要通过尝试进一步货币宽松，而是通过刺激公共支出来解决需求不足的问题。


Governments should borrow to invest in research, education, and infrastructure.	政府应该借钱投资于研究、教育和基础设施。


Currently, such investments cost little, given low interest rates.	目前，由于低利率，这些投资几无成本。


Productive public investment would also enhance the returns on private investment, encouraging firms to undertake additional projects.	生产性公共投资还可以强化私人投资回报，鼓励企业上马新项目。


Thus, it is disturbing to see the refusal of policymakers, particularly in the US and Germany, to even contemplate such action, despite available fiscal space (as record-low treasury-bond yields and virtually every other economic indicator show).	因此，决策者，特别是美国和德国决策者，甚至不愿意考虑采取这一行动，尽管存在可用财政空间（从创纪录的国债低收益率和几乎所有其他经济指标看），这令人十分担心。


In Germany, ideological aversion to budget deficits runs deep.	在德国，厌恶预算赤字的意识形态根深蒂固。


It is rooted in the post-World War II doctrine of “ordoliberalism,” which counseled that government should enforce contracts and ensure adequate competition but otherwise avoid interfering in the economy.	它植根于二战后的“秩序自由主义”（ordoliberalism）思想，该思想认为政府应该执行契约和确保充分竞争，但也要避免干涉经济。


Adherence to this doctrine prevented postwar German policymakers from being tempted by excesses like those of Hitler and Stalin.	严守这一思想使得战后德国决策者没有重走希特勒和斯大林的老路。


But the cost was high.	但代价十分高昂。


The ordoliberal emphasis on personal responsibility fostered an unreasoning hostility to the idea that actions that are individually responsible do not automatically produce desirable aggregate outcomes.	秩序自由派强调个人责任，这造成了对个体责任行为未必自动产生合意的总结果这一概念的不合理的敌意。


In other words, it rendered Germans allergic to macroeconomics.	换句话说，它让德国对宏观经济学反应过激。


The aging of the German population then made it seem urgent to save collectively for retirement by running surpluses.	而德国人口的老化使得通过盈余为退休集体储蓄的需要看上去十分紧迫。


And an exceptional spate of budget deficits following German reunification in 1990 appeared only to aggravate, not solve, reunified Germany’s structural problems.	1990年德国重新统一后带来的巨大的预算赤字进一步加剧而不是解决了统一后德国的结构问题。


Ultimately, hostility to the use of fiscal policy, as with many things German, can be traced to the 1920s, when budget deficits led to hyperinflation.	说到底，和其他许多德国特色一样，对使用财政政策的敌意可以追溯到20世纪20年代，当时，预算赤字导致了恶性通胀。


The circumstances today may be entirely different from those in the 1920s, but there is still guilt by association, as every German schoolboy and girl learns at an early age.	今天的环境也许与20世纪20年代完全不同，但负罪感依旧，因为每个德国孩子很早就会学习这段历史。


The US did not experience hyperinflation in the 1920s – or at any other time in its history.	美国在20世纪20年代没有经历恶性通胀——或者说在其历史上都没有经历过。


But for the better part of two centuries, its citizens have been suspicious of federal government power, including the power to run deficits, which is fundamentally a federal prerogative.	但两百年来的大部分时间里，美国公民一直对联邦政府权力表示怀疑，包括从本质上说属��联邦特权的保持赤字的权力。


From independence through the Civil War, that suspicion was strongest in the American South, where it was rooted in the fear that the federal government might abolish slavery.	从独立到南北战争，这一怀疑情绪在美国南方最为强烈，其根源可以追溯到对联邦政府可能废奴的担忧。


In the mid-twentieth century, during the civil rights movement, it was again the Southern political elite that opposed the muscular use of federal power.	20世纪中叶民权运动期间，又是南方警察精英反对强力使用联邦权力。


Starting in 1964, in conjunction with Democratic President Lyndon Baines Johnson’s “New Society,” the government threatened to withhold federal funding for health, education, and other state and local programs from jurisdictions that resisted legislative and judicial desegregation orders.	从1964年开始，在民主党总统约翰逊的“新社会”的配合下，美国政府威胁要停止抵制废除种族隔离的立法和司法命令的司法辖区的联邦卫生、教育和其他州和地方计划。


The result was to render the South a solid Republican bloc and leave its leaders antagonistic to all exercise of federal power except for the enforcement of contracts and competition – a hostility that notably included countercyclical macroeconomic policy.	结果是南方成为坚定的共和党阵营，其领导人反对一切形式的联邦权力行为，除了执行契约和加强竞争——这一反对重要之处是包括了反周期宏观经济政策。 欢迎来到德州式秩序自由主义。


Welcome to ordoliberalism, Dixie-style. Wolfgang Schäuble, meet Ted Cruz.	沃尔夫冈·朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schäuble），去见见泰德·科鲁兹（Ted Cruz）吧。


Ideological and political prejudices deeply rooted in history will have to be overcome to end the current stagnation.	必须克服历史根源深刻的意识形态和政治偏见才能结束目前的停滞。


If an extended period of depressed growth following a crisis isn’t the right moment to challenge them, then when is?	如今，我们在一场危机后经历了漫长的增长萧条期，此时不动手，更待何时？


Farewell to Inflation Targeting?	告别通胀目标？


NEWPORT BEACH – In a four-day period in mid-December, three seemingly unrelated developments suggested that modern central banking is in the midst of an historic change.	纽波特海滩——在12月中旬的四天内，三项看似无关的进展表明现代央行正在发生历史性的变化。


The implications go well beyond academia and policy circles.	变化的影响远远超出了学术和政策领域。


To the extent that this shift gains momentum – which appears likely – it will affect economic performance, the functioning of markets, and asset-price valuations.	假使这种变化成为趋势——现在看来这种可能性很大——必将影响到经济表现、市场运作和资产估价。


The three developments began on December 12 in the United States, where the Federal Reserve, led by Ben Bernanke, announced that it will go much further than doubling (to $1 trillion) the volume of market securities that it intends to buy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy.	这三项进展始于12月12日的美国，由伯南克领导的美联储宣布将采取比2013年拟定市场证券采购量翻番更有力的措施来刺激经济。 美联储还明确表示只要通胀率控制在2.


The Fed also left no doubt that it will maintain its foot on the accelerator until the US unemployment rate declines significantly, at least to 6.5%, and as long as inflation is contained at or below 2.5%.	5%或以下，就将在美国失业率大幅降至6. 5%以前持续刺激经济。


According to most analysts, the novelty in the announcement was the Fed’s willingness to be explicit about its quantitative policy thresholds and, therefore, about the future course of its monetary policy.	多数分析家认为美联储公告的新奇之处是明确界定了量化政策的阈值，并由此指明了货币政策的未来走向。


But my reading of what the Fed announced (and what Bernanke said in the subsequent press conference) suggests that the innovation goes beyond this.	但我在解读美联储公告内容（以及伯南克在随后新闻发布会上的讲话）后认为这绝非美联储政策的全部创新之处。


The Fed is taking very different approaches to the specification of the two quantitative thresholds: unemployment will be based on historical data, while inflation will be based on the Fed’s own projections.	美联储将采取截然不同的方法界定两项量化阈值：失业率的确定将依据历史数据，而通胀则将依据美联储自己的预测。


This subtle difference has interesting operational effects.	上述微妙差异将产生有趣的操作效果。


Most important, it prioritizes the unemployment objective over the inflation target.	最重要的是，美联储将优先顾及失业而非通胀目标。


This realignment of the Fed’s dual mandate, which I have called the “reverse Volcker moment,” has been evident for a few months.	我将美联储双重使命的上述调整命名为“反沃尔克时刻”，几个月来这种趋势已经越来越显著。


Let me explain by going back to the end of the inflationary 1970’s, when President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker to lead the Fed.	让我们回到倍受通胀困扰的20世纪70年代末，时任总统吉米·卡特任命保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）担任美联储领导。


In order to prevent pathological inflationary dynamics from becoming embedded even more deeply in the structure of the economy (including through wage indexation), Volcker dramatically changed the policy stance and made inflation public enemy number one.	为防止病态通胀趋势更深地嵌入经济结构（包括藉由工资指数化），沃尔克明显改变了政策立场，将通胀树为头号全民公敌。


The equivalent of today’s policy rate rose to 22% as he launched a bold anti-inflationary crusade, accepting significant upfront costs for gains down the road.	随着沃尔克展开大胆的反通胀十字军东征，今天政策利率的等价值一路攀升至22%，为确保今后的收益付出了惨重的眼前代价。


This “Volcker moment” was, as students of economic history know, the catalyst not only for “winning the war against inflation,” but also for a multi-decade shift in conventional wisdom about central banking.	研习经济史的学生都知道，“沃尔克时刻”不仅是“打赢抗通胀战争”的催化剂，也成为数十年央行传统智慧变革的历史根由。


Most important, inflation targeting and independence from the fiscal authorities became core features of mainstream policy – a requirement for any country seeking the macroeconomic stability deemed crucial for sustained economic growth and high rates of job creation.	最重要的是，通胀目标和独立于财政管理机构成为主流政策的核心特征——同时也是追求对长期经济增长和高就业率创造至关重要的宏观经济稳定的国家所必须满足的要求。


I suspect that historians one day will view last month’s Fed announcement as the catalyst for a similar change in conventional wisdom – both in America and around the world.	我怀疑有一天历史学家会把上个月的美联储公告视为促成美国和全世界传统智慧发生类似转变的催化因素。


They will conclude that two factors motivated Bernanke: persistently high US unemployment – which, like the inflation problem that Volcker faced, risks becoming deeply embedded in the structure of the economy – and virtual paralysis on the part of other policymaking agencies.	他们可能总结出有两项因素促使伯南克这么做：一是美国失业率持续高企——与沃尔克面临的通胀问题类似，它也有可能深深嵌入经济结构——二是其他决策机构在实质上陷入瘫痪。


There are almost five million “long-term unemployed” Americans, constituting more than 40% of total unemployment.	美国有近500万人“长期失业”，占失业总人数的超过40%。


Millions more have dropped out of the measured labor force altogether.	此外还有数百万人彻底退出就业市场。


And about a quarter of 16-19-year-olds in the labor force are unemployed.	失业率约占16－19岁劳动力人数的四分之一。


All of this risks serious skill atrophy.	这可能导致严重的技能萎缩。


And the unemployed young face the additional risk of becoming a lost generation.	同时失业的年轻人还有可能成为迷惘的一代。


It is therefore doubly surprising that, aside from the Fed, America’s policymaking agencies are essentially missing in action.	因此，除美联储外，美国的决策机构基本不见踪影令人倍感惊讶。


The problem is not a lack of leadership from President Barack Obama, who has put forward several proposals to address the country’s unemployment problem, including a comprehensive jobs initiative.	奥巴马总统领导不力并非问题的症结所在，他已连续提出议案，包括一项全面就业计划以解决美国的失业问题。


Rather, the problem is a polarized Congress that has taken no major economic decisions in the last few years – other than missteps (like the fiscal cliff) that risk tripping the economy into recession.	相反，症结在于议会的两极分���，他们在过去几年中除可能导致经济陷入衰退的失策（如财政悬崖）外未能做出任何重大的经济决策。


With political paralysis likely to continue in 2013, notwithstanding occasional agreements, the Fed will be busy implementing the paradigm shift for central banking.	由于2013年政治瘫痪的局面难以扭转，尽管两党偶尔能够达成一致，美联储仍将忙于落实转变央行思维模式的任务。


And the impact could well spread.	由此造成的影响有可能迅速蔓延。


Which brings us to the two other developments in that four-day period in mid-December.	于是就引出了12月中旬那四天期间的另外两项进展。


A few hours after the Fed’s announcement, news came that the British government was open to considering a change in the Bank of England’s policy anchor.	就在美联储公告宣布几小时后，有消息称英国政府开始思考改革英国银行的基础政策。


Unlike the Fed, the BoE’s sole objective for years has been price stability, with no additional employment mandate.	与美联储不同，英国央行多年来的唯一目标一直是保持价格稳定，并不承担创造就业机会的责任。


If the target is missed repeatedly, as it has been, the governor must send a public explanatory letter to the government.	如果仍像过去那样一再完不成目标，管理者必须面向政府做出公开的解释。


Now it looks like politicians may be looking to offload onto the Bank responsibility for generating economic growth and jobs.	现在看来政界人士有可能向银行推卸促进经济增长和就业的义务。


The third development occurred in Japan, where the newly-elected Liberal Democratic government of Shinzo Abe, commanding a two-thirds parliamentary majority, is pressing the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth – a “discussion” that looks set to evolve into something much more assertive.	第三项进展来源于日本，新当选的自民党安倍晋三政府控制着三分之二的议会席位，正向日本央行施压刺激经济发展——这场“讨论”似乎注定避免不了沸沸扬扬的命运。


In short, expect central banks to devote greater attention to unemployment.	总之，人们预计央行将为解决失业问题投入更多精力。


And it is a good thing that the official sector is paying more attention to joblessness – a very good thing.	官员阶层更重视解决失业问题是一件好事。


Yet, unfortunately, this shift will not solve a problem that eats away at the social fabric of any society.	但遗憾的是，这种转变将无法解决蚕食社会结构的问题。


As much as Bernanke and others wish otherwise – and as much as bickering politicians seek to dump policy responsibilities on others – central banks do not have the proper tools to deal with the component of the unemployment crisis that results from insufficient investment in education, training, and physical capital.	不管伯南克和其他人多么不愿正视现实——也不管吵吵嚷嚷的政治家多想推卸政治责任——央行并不掌握有效工具，来解决因教育培训及实物资本投资不足而造成的失业危机。


Likewise, they cannot fix debt overhangs, repair broken home financing, or address medium-term fiscal-reform challenges on their own.	同样，央行也无法凭借一己之力应对债务威胁、修复破碎的家庭融资或解决中期财政改革的难题。


The best that central banks can do is to buy time, albeit at an increasing cost, for other policymaking entities to get their act together.	央行最多只能为决策机构协调行动争取时间，尽管需要付出的代价越来越昂贵。


If this window closes, the monetary-policy paradigm shift now visible in the US, Britain, and Japan would risk a damaging loss of credibility and political independence for institutions that are critical to well-managed economies.	如果失去这个机会，美、英、日等国当前货币政策思维模式的转变可能丧失对管理经济至关重要的可信度和政治独立性。


Money for Nothing	白白花钱


COPENHAGEN – When it comes to global warming, we have plenty of hot rhetoric but very little cool reason.	哥本哈根--在全球变暖问题上，我们言辞激烈但是没有什么冷静的理性。


This matters immensely, because the Kyoto Protocol is already among the most expensive global public policies ever enacted, and the follow-up in Copenhagen in late 2009 promises to break all records.	这非常重要，因为京都议定书已经成为所制定出来的最为昂贵的全球公共政策，而2009年底在哥本哈根举行的跟进措施将会打破所有的记录。


We better get it right, but right now we’re more likely to pay for virtually nothing.	我们最好还是摆正位置，因为目前我们更有可能白白花钱。


A good example is the European Union’s newly instituted policy of cutting CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020.	一个明显的例子就是欧盟最近制定政策到2020年减少二氧化碳排放20%。


Of course, it is always easier to promise than to deliver – a concern that is especially relevant in the EU.	当然，许诺总是要比落实容易，这一点对于欧盟尤其如此。


Yet, even if the promise is kept, will the benefit outweigh the cost?	但是，即使遵守诺言，所获得的效益是否就大于成本呢？


Curiously, but not surprisingly, this is not discussed very much.	令人好奇而并不令人惊讶的是，人们并没有认真予以讨论。


A 20% reduction in the EU’s CO2 emissions, vigorously enforced throughout this century, would merely postpone temperature increases due to global warming by two years at the end of the century, from 2100 to 2102 – a negligible change.	在整个二十一世纪认真贯彻执行减少欧盟二氧化碳排放20%只不过将会把由于全球变暖而造成的温度升高在本世纪末的时候推迟两年，从2100年推迟到2102年。


Yet the cost would be anything but negligible.	这一变化可以忽略不计。


The EU’s own estimate is about €60 billion annually , which is almost certainly a vast underestimate (its previous estimate was almost twice as much), since it requires the EU to make the reductions in the smartest way possible.	但是其成本绝对不可不计。 欧盟自己的估计是大约每年600亿欧元，这肯定还是低估了 (它先前的估计几乎是两倍) ，因为这要求欧盟用最为聪明的方法减排。


However, the EU doesn’t just want to cut emissions in the smartest possible way, but also to increase the share of renewable energy in the Union by 20% by 2020.	但是，欧盟就是不仅仅想用最为聪明的办法减排，而且想要到2020年的时候把欧盟的可再生能源的比例提高20%。


This increase has no separate climate effect, since we’ve already promised to cut emissions by 20%.	这一提高对气候没有效果，因为我们已经保证减排20%。


However, it does manage to make a poor policy decision dramatically worse.	但是，这却让一个原本不好的决策更加糟糕。


The debate in my native Denmark is instructive, as the relevant government ministries have outlined what this decision will end up costing here, which in turn suggests the total cost for the EU.	我的原居地丹麦进行的辩论颇有启迪。 有关政府部门公布了这一决定所要付出的成本，反过来表明了整个欧盟的总体成本。


The annual cost of an increase in renewable energy of less than 20% (18 percentage points) – and five years later, by 2025 – will be more than €2.5 billion.	提高可再生能源不到20%( 18个百分点) ，其每年的成本五年后到2025年将会超过25亿欧元。


And the benefit?	效益有如何呢？


If Denmark sticks to this decision throughout the rest of this century, it will spend more than €200 billion to postpone global warming by five days.	如果丹麦在本世纪剩余的时间里坚持这一决定，它将花费超过2000亿欧元推迟全球变暖五天。


Is that a sensible decision?	这是明智的决定吗？


The total advantage to the world (measured according to all relevant criteria, such as lives saved, agricultural production increased, wetlands preserved, etc.) from Denmark’s policy would be about €11 million.	丹麦的政策对于全球的总体贡献(根据有关标准进行衡量，例如，增加的农业生产以及湿地保护等等) 将会是大约110亿欧元。


Or, for every euro spent, we would do a bit less than half a cent worth of good.	或言之，我们每花一个欧元，得到的好处相当于半分不到。


To put this in perspective, €2.5 billion could double the number of hospitals in Denmark.	换一种眼光来看，25亿欧元可以把丹麦的医院数量增加一倍。


And, if we really wanted to benefit the world, €2 billion could halve the number of malaria infections, saving 850 million lives this century.	而且，如果我们确实想要有助于世界，20亿欧元可以减少霍乱感染数量一半，在本世纪挽救八千万人的生命。


People in the affected countries would live much better and become more productive, benefiting their children and grandchildren in 2100.	受到影响的国家人民将会生活得更好，变得更有效率，并有助于二十二世纪的子孙。


The last €500 million could fund an eight-fold increase in research and development aimed at improving CO2-efficient energy technologies, enabling everyone in the long run to reduce emissions much more dramatically, and at much lower cost.	最后的五亿欧元可以资助目的在于提高低二氧化碳排放的能源技术的研发，其经费可以翻八番。 从成员来看，这可以让每个人都大幅度减排，成本也更加低廉。


So, should we halve malaria while dramatically increasing the possibility of solving global warming in the medium term?	因此，我们是否应该减少一半的霍乱，与此同时大幅度提高在中期解决全球变暖的可能性呢？


Or should we make a pledge that does 2,000 times less good and barely alters the global climate?	或者我们是否应该做出保证，效益要少两千倍而几乎并不改变全球气候呢？


It gets worse.	形势更加糟糕。


The €2.5 billion estimate assumes that politicians pick the cheapest renewable energy alternative.	25亿欧元的估计是假定政治人物挑选最为便宜的可再生能源。


Yet Danish politicians seem intent on choosing much more expensive solutions, implying a two-fold (or more) increase in cost.	但是丹麦的政坛人物似乎愿意挑选更为昂贵的途径，这预示着成本提高两倍(或者更多)。


The opposition – trying to trump the government – insists on an almost 40% increase in renewable energy, at a cost of almost €10 billion annually, with every euro doing just €0.025 worth of good for the world.	反对派试图压过政府，坚持可再生能源经费增加几乎40%，每年花费几乎100亿欧元。 这一计划的每个欧元只能为世界产生0.


Using the Danish figures to calculate EU-wide costs, the total is likely to be more than €150 billion annually, with every euro doing just half a cent worth of good.	我们用丹麦的数据来估算整个欧盟的成本，总数有可能超过每年1500亿欧元，每个欧元只有半分得效益。


And this assumes that politicians pick the best options, and that oppositions don’t try to out-do their governments.	而且这还假定政治人物选择最佳的选择，而且反对派并不试图花钱超过政府。


The same money could triple the global development aid budget.	同样的钱可以把全球发展援助的预算增加三倍。


It could easily provide clean drinking water, sanitation, education, and health care to every human being on the planet, while increasing CO2-reducing R&D ten-fold.	它可以轻而易举地向地球上的每个人提供清洁饮用水、卫生、教育和医疗，同时增加减排研发经费十番。


The EU’s goal of a 20% reduction by 2020 is an incredibly expensive way to signal good intentions.  But wouldn’t we rather do real good?	���盟到2020年减排20%的目标是一个花费极为昂贵的显示良好意愿的方式。 但是难道我们就不愿意做实实在在的好事吗？


The EU believes it is showing the way, but if the world follows the Union, it seems that we are more likely simply to become lost.	欧盟相信它正在指引方向，但是如果全世界跟随欧盟，好像我们更有可能迷失方向。


Dirty Money and Development	脏钱与发展


WASHINGTON, DC – The world has made enormous progress in recent decades in the fight against poverty.	华盛顿—近几十年来，世界在对抗贫困方面取得了巨大进步。


But, as 2015 begins, one billion people – one in seven – still live on less than $1.25 a day.	但是，随着2014年进入尾声，仍有十亿人——地球人口的七分之一——每天的生活费仍不足1. 25美元。


It will take a global effort to end poverty – and to find the resources to do so.	结束贫困需要全球努力——并找到全球努力地资源。


At first glance, the price tag is staggering.	乍一看你，价格标签令人震惊。


We know that development aid will not be sufficient to end poverty.	我们知道发展援助不足以结束贫困。


It will take private sector investment, taxes collected in developing countries, and other sources of finance to do the job.	还需要动用私人部门投资、发展中国家的税收和其他资金源完成这一使命。


The truth is that there is enough money in the world to get it done.	事实是，世界有足够的钱完成这一使命。


One unexpected source of wealth that could play a large role is the world’s huge supply of dirty money: multinational companies’ undeclared profits, the proceeds of corruption, and the earnings of traffickers of drugs, weapons, and people – all of which is stashed away in offshore bank accounts, companies, and trusts.	一个出人意料的可以派上大用场的财富源是全球为数巨大的脏钱（dirty money）供给：跨国公司的未报告利润、腐败所得，以及毒品、军火和人口贩子的利润——所有这些都藏匿于离岸银行账户、公司和信托中。


Reliable numbers about the amount of dirty money around the world are difficult to come by.	关于全球脏钱的可靠数字很难获得。


But according to an estimate by the non-profit Global Financial Integrity group, $1 trillion vanishes from the developing world’s economies every year.	但根据非盈利机构全球金融诚信（Global Financial Integrity）集团的估计，每年有1万亿美元从全球发展中经济体中消失。


That is money that is badly needed for development.	这是发展所急需的资金。


This is also roughly the amount needed to fill the vast infrastructure gap that is preventing the world from addressing critical developmental challenges – from rapid urbanization to climate change and job creation.	这也与填补阻碍世界解决从快速城市化到气候变化和就业创造的各种关键发展的巨大的基础设施缺口所需要的资金量相当。


Today, developing and emerging countries invest about $1 trillion a year in infrastructure.	如今，发展中和新兴国家每年在基础设施上的投入大约为1万亿美元。


They need an additional $1 trillion a year to close the gap, a necessary step to ending extreme poverty by 2030.	它们每年还需要1万亿美元才能填补缺口，这也是2030年消灭极端贫困的必要条件。


But a lack of implementation and enforcement of anti-money-laundering, tax transparency, and anti-corruption rules is shielding the perpetrators from prosecution.	但反洗钱、税收透明和反腐败规则实施和执法不力让掠夺者逍遥法外。


This ultimately prevents developing countries from stopping the outflow of money that is bleeding them of essential resources.	这最终阻碍了发展中国家阻止导致关键资源流失的资金外流。


For the schoolchild in Port-au-Prince, the new mother in Mogadishu, or the farmer in Ocotepeque, these losses have a real impact: overcrowded classrooms, non-existent health clinics, and inadequate water resources.	对太子港学龄儿童、摩加迪休新母亲或奥科特佩克的农民来说，这些损失带来了实实在在的影响：过于拥挤的教室、不存在的诊所和不足的水资源。


People’s opportunities are being stolen from them.	他们的机会被偷走了。


Fortunately, the international community has woken up.	幸运的是，国际社会已经觉醒。


An initiative of African finance ministers, chaired by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, is investigating the issue on the continent, where up to $1.4 trillion was lost to illicit outflows over the last three decades.	由前南非总统姆贝基（Thabo Mbeki）为首、非洲财政部长发起的项目正在调查非洲大陆的这一问题。 在非洲，过去三十年中不正当外流资金损失高达1.


Most recently, the G-20 has begun to call for global action to ensure that bad deeds do not pay.	最近，G-20开始号召采取全球行动确保不要为坏行为买单。


And, at a recent meeting in Berlin, governments signed a deal to crack down on cross-border tax evasion.	此外，在最近的柏林会议上，各国政府签署了打击跨国逃税的协议。


This is good news, particularly for the poor.	这是个好消息，特别是对穷人来说。


But many hurdles remain, and now the world must focus on three critical issues.	但仍有许多障碍存在，如今，世界必须专注于三大关键问题。


First, developing countries must build effective institutions while enforcing good governance, transparency, and accountability.	首先，发展中国家必须建立有效机构，同时实施好治理、实现透明和问责。


They must fight corruption, combat organized crime, and implement effective tax systems, which is even more critical in resource-rich countries.	它们必须与腐败作斗争，必须与有组织犯罪作斗争，必须实施有效的税收制度，资源富裕国尤其如此。


Recent events in the Middle East and Ukraine demonstrate how the capture of state coffers by vested interests instigates conflict and undermines people’s trust in government.	最近在中东和乌克兰发生的事件表明，利益集团绑架国家金库是如何点燃让人们不再信任政府的冲突的。


But corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion are global problems, not just challenges for developing countries.	但腐败、洗钱和逃税是全球性问题，而不仅仅是发展中国家的挑战。


Though weak national institutions and limited law-enforcement capacity may make it easier to initiate illicit financial transfers, we need to acknowledge that dirty money often ends up in financial centers, which have become quasi-enablers.	尽管国家机构不力和执法能力有限导致从事非法资金转移相当方便，但我们得承认，脏钱最后往往会流向金融中心，后者也成了准帮凶。


That is why addressing the issue requires international cooperation.	正因如此，解决这一问题需要全球合作。


Second, regulations that identify the true owners of illicit funds need to be enforced.	其次，必须采取辨认非法资金真正所有者的监管。


Once such assets are parked in opaque companies, they are often beyond the reach of tax authorities and investigators.	如果这些资产为不透明的公司所持有，常常就能摆脱税收当局和调查者。


Again and again, the true recipients or beneficial owners of companies and trusts are shielded from disclosure by laws and regulations that inadvertently protect criminals.	根据无意中保护了犯罪分子的法律和规则，真正的收款人或这些公司和信托的受益所有者不必披露。


This must stop.	这一状况必须停止。


Finally, a system for the automatic exchange of tax information among countries would limit the places where tax evaders and money launderers can easily hide their proceeds.	最后，自动的国家间税收情报交换系统能够限制逃税者和洗钱者可以轻易藏匿痕迹的地点。


Almost 90 countries have now committed to begin, as early as 2017, cross-border data exchanges that would include information about account holders and certain details regarding their deposits and balances – information that could help authorities identify proceeds from corruption and illegal transactions through suspicious activity and spikes.	目前已有近90个国家承诺从2017年开始跨国数据交流，内容将包括关于账户持有人信心和关于他们的存款和余额的一些细节——这些信息能够帮助当局挖掘腐败数量和通过可疑行为进行的非法交易。


More action is needed this year and beyond.	在2015年及以后，我们需要更多的行动。


At the World Bank, we are already working with our clients in developing countries to improve their governance systems, collect taxes, fight corruption, and recover stolen assets.	在世界银行，我们正准备与发展中国家的客户合作改善它们的治理系统、征收税收、打击腐败和恢复被盗资产。


Our work will benefit enormously from the current push for more international cooperation in curbing illicit financial flows.	我们的工作将极大地受益于目前正在推进的遏制非法资金流动的更加国际化的合作。


Changing much-cherished bank-secrecy laws is worth the effort.	改革顽固的银行保密法也值得尝试。


Corruption, tax evasion, and the capture of natural-resource revenues undermine the rule of law, weaken the social fabric, erode citizens’ trust in institutions, fuel conflict and insecurity, and hamper job creation.	腐败、逃税和挪用自然资源收入破坏了法治精神，削弱了社会基础，侵蚀了公民对制度的信任，助长了冲突和不安全，阻碍了就业创造。


They are not just illegal, but also immoral, because they keep poor people poor.	它们不仅仅是非法的，也是不道德的，因为它们让穷人一直穷下去。


Monnet’s Ghost	莫内的幽魂


LONDON – Some fine ideas are rather like a beautiful object with a time bomb inside.	伦敦— 某些好主意看起来就像是装有定时炸弹的美妙物件。


The ideal of a unified Europe, though not designed to explode, could well disintegrate nonetheless.	统一的欧洲这个理想本意并不是要引爆欧洲，但最后却有可能以分裂收场。


To understand why, it helps to revisit the intellectual origins of the European Union.	要理解为什么，不妨重新审视一下欧盟思想的起源。


One of the EU’s main architects, Jean Monnet, a French diplomat and economist, spent much of World War II in Washington, DC, as a negotiator for the European allies.	欧盟的主要设计者之一是法国外交官兼经济学家让·莫内，二战期间，他作为欧洲盟军谈判代表在华盛顿呆了很长时间。


After Germany’s defeat, he was convinced that only a united Europe could prevent another devastating war in the West.	德国投降后，他认定只有统一的欧洲才能防止西方再一次爆发灾难性的战争。


“There will be no peace in Europe,” he wrote in his memoir, “if states are reconstituted on the basis of national sovereignty.”	“欧洲不会有和平，”他在回忆录中写道，“如果各国在国家主权的基础上得以再造的话。 ”


Almost everyone on the European continent, exhausted by war, and faced with the shattered institutions of their ravaged nation-states, agreed.	彼时欧洲大陆饱受战争折磨，民族国家制度满目疮痍，支离破碎，莫内的思想得到了一致赞成。


Only the victorious British, with their old institutions more or less intact, voiced skepticism, not so much about continental unity as about their own participation in Europe’s ambitious project.	唯有获胜的英国人——他们的旧制度或多或少完好地保存着——对此表示怀疑，但其怀疑主要不是针对大陆的统一，而是对其自身是否参与雄心勃勃的欧洲工程犹豫不决。


Of course, the ideal of a united Europe is much older than Monnet’s scheme.	当然，统一的欧洲这一理想要远早于莫内的蓝图。


If not as old as ancient Rome, it certainly goes as far back as the tenth-century Holy Roman Empire.	这一理想可以追溯到古罗马，再不济在10世纪神圣罗马帝国时期也已经存在了。


Since then, the European ideal has gone through many changes, but two themes remained constant.	此后，欧洲理想一变再变，但万变不离两宗。


One ideal was that of a unified Christendom, with Europe at its center.	其一是以欧洲为中心的大一统的基督王国。


The Duke of Sully (1559-1641) conceived of a Christian European republic, which the Turks could join only if they converted to Christianity.	苏利公爵（Duke of Sully，1559—1641）构想了一个基督教欧洲共和国，突厥人如要加入，就必须皈依基督教。


The other ideal was eternal peace.	其二是永远和平。


In 1713, another Catholic Frenchman, Charles-Irénée Castel, abbé de Saint-Pierre, published his Project for Perpetual Peace in Europe. There would be a European senate, a European army, and the larger member states would have equal voting rights.	1713年，另一位法国天主教徒圣皮埃尔（Saint-Pierre）神父出版了《欧洲永久和平工程》（Project for Perpetual Peace in Europe），包括了一个欧洲参议院、一支欧洲军队，较大成员国将拥有平等的投票权。


In fact, the ideals of eternal peace and Christian unity were identical in the minds of the early pan-European thinkers.	事实上，永远和平和基督教大一统这两大理想在早期泛欧洲思想家眼中并无区别。


Peaceful unification was a religious notion, a Christian utopia.	和平统一是一个宗教概念，一个基督教乌托邦。


Never meant to be confined to the European continent, it was, like Christianity itself, a universalist aspiration.	这一理想与基督教本身一样，并不局限于欧洲大陆，而是一个普世愿望。


National borders ought to be abolished in God’s earthly kingdom.	国界在上帝的世俗世界中被抛弃。


After the Enlightenment, the rationalists easily adopted religious universalism.	启蒙运动后，理性主义很容易地就吸收了宗教普世主义。


The French nineteenth-century statesman Alphonse de Lamartine wrote an ode to European unity along rationalist lines, entitled the Marseillaise of Peace: “In the course of enlightenment, the world rises to unity/I am the fellow citizen of every thinking person/Truth is my country.”	19世纪法国政治家拉马丹用理性主义的笔调写过一篇欧洲统一赋，题为《和平马赛曲》（Marseillaise of Peace）：“在启蒙过程中，世界走向了统一/所有思想者都是我的同胞/真理就是我的祖国。


As France’s foreign minister in the revolutionary year of 1848, Lamartine published his Manifesto for Europe, promoting not just European unity, but that of mankind.	”在爆发大革命的1848年，出任法国外交部长的拉马丹出版了《欧洲宣言》（Manifesto for Europe），鼓吹不但要统一欧洲，还要统一全人类。


The European ideal has parallels in other parts of the world.	欧洲的统一理想并非当世无二。


Chinese rulers, to this day, have been obsessed with central control, continental unity, and social harmony – that is, a society without political conflict.	直到今天，中国当权者仍沉浸在中央集权、大陆一统、社会和谐（即一个没有政治冲突的社会）之梦中。


The idea that people’s interests can and do naturally conflict is not readily admissible.	民族利益可能也确实天生具有冲突性在中国是难以接受的。


Mao’s idea of permanent revolution was an aberration in the history of Chinese political thought.	毛泽东的不断革命论是对传统中国政治思想的反动。


It is not difficult to imagine why the notion of a borderless, peaceful world in which political divisions and conflicts were overcome was deeply appealing after WWII.	不难想象，为何克服了政治分歧和冲突的无国界的和平世界会在二战后大受欢迎。


Many blamed nationalism as the ultimate evil that had almost destroyed Europe.	许多人认为，民族主义是几乎毁掉欧洲的罪魁祸首。


A world without political strife seemed like a recipe for bliss.	没有政治冲突的世界就像是极乐世界。


Monnet was a born technocrat, who hated political conflict and almost made a fetish of unity.	莫内是个天生的技术官僚，他讨厌政治冲突，笃信统一。


(In 1940, when Hitler seemed indomitable, Monnet suggested to Winston Churchill that France and Britain might be rolled into one country.)	（1940年，希特勒如日中天的时候，莫内向丘吉尔建言，说法国和英国应该合并成一个国家。 ）


Like all technocrats, Monnet was also a born planner.	与所有的技术官僚一样，莫内也是天生的计划者。


In this, too, he was a man of his time.	在这一点上，他同样是一位划时代的人物。


Many people believed already before the war that economies and societies should be planned as much as possible.	二战前，已有许多人认为经济和社会应该尽可能地按计划前进。


Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal was one example; so, in a much more sinister way, was the fascist state.	罗斯福新政便是一例； 而法西斯国家无非是更罪恶的计划形式。


And so, still, is China, ruled by engineers and other faceless technocrats.	中国至今仍是计划国家，由一群工程师和幕后技术官僚统治着。


The post-1945 ideal of a united Europe was very much a planner’s archetype, a technocratic Utopia.	1945年以后视为统一欧洲理想在很大程度上说是计划者的典型成果，一个技术官僚乌托邦。


And, certainly for Monnet and the other founders of postwar Europe, it was an entirely benign, even noble, ideal.	显然，对于莫内和其他战后欧洲的建设者来说，���个理想是良好甚至高尚的。


The problem with technocrats, however, is that they tend to be oblivious to the political consequences of their own plans.	但是，技术官僚的问题在于，他们总是忘记自己的计划会造成政治后果。


They proceed as if politics did not exist or did not really matter.	看他们做事，你会觉得政治根本不存在或无关紧要。


Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, is a case in point.	IMF总裁拉加德就是一例。


Her recent statement that she feels no sympathy for the suffering Greeks, because they should have paid their taxes, has been widely criticized for being not just unfeeling, but hypocritical (as a diplomat she pays no taxes herself).	最近，她说她对希腊的遭遇一点都不感到同情，因为希腊人没有缴纳应缴的税。 这一言论受到了广泛批评，拉加德被指冷血、伪善（作为外交官，她本人从不缴税）。


In fact, it is the typical sentiment of a technocrat who lacks political sense.	事实上，这是缺少政治考虑的技术官僚的典型观点。


Crippling economic austerity, imposed by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels and Washington, is not only a social calamity; it is also poses a dangerous threat to democracy.	非选举产生的布鲁塞尔和华盛顿官僚们推行着有害的经济紧缩，不仅造成了社会灾难，也为民主带来了危险。


When people lose faith in democratic institutions to protect them, they will reach for extremism.	当人们不再相信民主制度能够保护他们时，极端主义就会复燃。


And so, barring a miracle, the time bomb within post-war Europe’s beautiful ideal is about to explode.	此外，战后欧洲美妙理想所暗含的定时炸弹就要爆炸了。


The limits of technocratic utopianism have been reached.	技术官僚乌托邦已经达到了极致。


Fiscal union – that is, more imposed unity – may well be the rational answer to the current financial crisis, but it is a technocratic answer which would do nothing to make Europe more democratic, and would most likely provoke an extremist backlash.	财政联盟——即更具强制性的联盟——也许是解决当前金融危机的理性办法，但也是一个技术官僚主义办法，无助于欧洲变得更加民主，极有可能激发极端主义反动。


Technocracy, it seems, can work well as long as most people feel that they are benefiting materially, as was true in Europe for almost 50 years, and might still be true in China.	似乎只要大部分人相信他们能够获得实质性的好处，技术官僚主义就可以很好地运转，这就是欧洲发生了50年、并在中国继续发生着的事情。


But its legitimacy cracks as soon as a crisis erupts.	但只要危机爆发，其合法性就会立刻崩塌。


Europe is feeling the consequences today.	如今，欧洲政治感受到这一苦果。


Who knows what might happen in China tomorrow.	谁知道未来中国会发生什么呢。


Is Finance Too Competitive?	金融竞争太多了吗？


NEW DELHI – Many economists are advocating for regulation that would make banking “boring” and uncompetitive once again.	新德里—许多经济学家在号召实施让银行业再度变得“无聊”而不具竞争性的监管。


After a crisis, it is not uncommon to hear calls to limit competition.	每逢危机过去，限制竞争的呼声都会出现，这没什么出奇。


During the Great Depression, the head of the United States National Recovery Administration argued that employers were being forced to lay off workers as a result of “the murderous doctrine of savage and wolfish competition, [of] dog-eat-dog and devil take the hindmost.”	大萧条期间，美国国家复兴局首脑指出，雇主因为“认定野蛮残忍竞争、狗咬狗和为赢得最后胜利不择手段的可怕意识形态”而被迫解雇工人。


He appealed for a more collusive business environment, with the profits made from consumers to be shared between employers and workers.	他呼吁建设能够共荣的商业环境，从消费者那里获得的利润应由雇主和工人共享。


Concerns about the deleterious effects of competition have always existed, even among those who are not persuaded that government diktat can replace markets, or that intrinsic human goodness is a more powerful motivator than monetary reward and punishment.	对竞争的有害效应的担忧一直存在着，即使那些不认为政府指令能够取代市场的人以及那些不认为人性本善是比金钱奖惩更强大的动机的人也相信这一点。


Where the debate has been most heated, however, concerns the effects of competition on incentives to innovate.	不过，这场争论最热的焦点在于竞争对创新激励的效应。


The great Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter believed that innovation was a much more powerful force for human betterment than was ordinary price competition between firms.	伟大的奥地利经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特认为，创新是比企业间常规价格竞争更能促进人类境况改善的力量。


As a young man, Schumpeter seemed to believe that monopolies deaden the incentive to innovate – especially to innovate radically.	年轻时，熊彼特似乎认为垄断会阻碍创新激励，特别是彻底创新的激励。


Simply put, a monopolist does not like to lose his existing monopoly profits by undertaking innovation that would cannibalize his existing business.	简言之，垄断者不喜欢因为使用侵蚀已有业务的创新而失去已有的垄断利润。


By contrast, if the industry were open to new players, potential entrants, with everything to gain and little to lose, would have a strong incentive to unleash the waves of “creative destruction” that Schumpeter thought so essential to human progress.	相反，如果行业对新来者和潜在进入者开放，嬴则大赢，输无可输，则会产生引来“创造性破坏”浪潮的强大激励。 熊彼特认为“创造性破坏”是人类进步的源泉。


In a competitive industry, only paranoid incumbents – those constantly striving for betterment – have any hope of surviving.	在竞争性行业中，只有执着的先入者——持续地追求改善者——才有希望生存。


As an older man, Schumpeter qualified his views to argue that some degree of monopoly might be preferable to competition in creating stronger incentives for companies to innovate.	随着年龄渐长，熊彼特的观点也发生了改变，他开始认为，就创造更强的公司创新激励而言，一定程度的垄断可能比竞争更好。


The rationale is simple: If patent protection were limited, or if it were easy for competitors to innovate around intellectual property, a firm in a competitive market would have very little incentive to invest in pathbreaking research and development.	其中的原因很简单：如果专利保护有限度，或竞争者很容易就能从知识产权中进行创新，那么竞争性市场的企业就没什么动力投资于突破性研发活动。


After all, the firm would gain only a temporary advantage at best.	毕竟，企业充其量只能获得短暂的优势。


If, instead, it withheld spending, and simply copied or worked around others’ R&D, it could survive perfectly well – and might be better off.	反过来，如果它限制支出，只是简单地跟随或参照其他企业的研发活动，那么它也可以活得很好，甚至比以前更加滋润。


Knowing this, no one would innovate.	明白了这一点，就不会有人去创新了。


But if the firm enjoyed a monopoly, it would have the incentive to undertake innovations that improved its profitability (so called “process” innovations), because it would be able to capture the resulting profits, rather than see them be competed away.	但如果企业能够获得垄断地位，它就有激励进行能够改善盈利能力的创新（所谓的“过程”创新），因为它可以获得由此产生的利润，而不会眼睁睁看着利润被别人攫走。


A “boring” bank, shielded from competition and knowing that it “owns” its customers, would want to go the extra mile to help them, because it would get its pound of flesh from their future business.	了解其“自身”客户的免于竞争的“无聊”银行将愿意多迈一步帮助其客户，因为这样做能够从客户身上榨取更多的油水。


Customers can be happy even when faced by a monopoly, though they would grumble far more if they knew how much they were paying for good service!	而即使面临垄断，客户也会很愉快，尽管如果知道自己花了多少钱才享受到上等服务，他们也免不了有所抱怨。


An analogy may be useful.	做个类比很有用。


A monopoly is like running on firm ground.	垄断就像是在硬地上跑步。


Nothing compels you to move, but if you do, you move forward.	没人强迫你前进，但只要你行动，你就能前进。


The faster you run, the more scenery you see – so you have some incentive to run fast.	你跑得越快，看到的风景就越多，于是你就有了快跑的激励。


Competition is like a treadmill.	竞争就像是一台跑步机。


If you stand still, you get swept off.	如果你呆在原地，就会被送下跑步机。


But when you run, you can never really get ahead of the treadmill and cover new terrain – so you never run faster than the speed that is set.	但即使你跑起来，你也无法真正跨出跑步机，进入新领域——因此你永远不会比跑步机设定的速度跑得更快。


So which industrial structure is better for encouraging you to run?	那么，哪种行业结构更能鼓励你跑？


As economists are prone to say, it depends.	作为经济学家，答案免不了是“看情况”。


Perhaps one can have the best of both worlds if one starts on a treadmill, but can jump off if one runs particularly fast – the system is competitive, but those who are particularly innovative secure some monopoly rents for a while.	或许你也可以同时享受两种结构的好处——从跑步机上开始，如果你跑得够快，可以跳出跑步机——系统是竞争性的，但特别长于创新者可以保证在一定时间内的垄断租。


This is what a strong system of patent protection does.	这就是强大的专利保护制度的特点。


But patents are ineffective in some industries, like finance.	但专利制度在某些行业无效，金融就是其中之一。


The overwhelming evidence, though, is that financial competition promotes innovation.	不过，压倒性的证据是金融竞争刺激了创新。


Much of the innovation in finance in the US and Europe came after it was deregulated in the 1980’s – that is, after it stopped being boring.	美国和欧洲的大部分金融创新发生在20世纪80年代去监管化之后——也就是说，发生于不再无聊之后。


The critics of finance, however, believe that innovation has been the problem.	但是，金融业批评者认为这些创新正是问题之所在。


Instead of Schumpeter’s “creative destruction,” bankers have engaged in destructive creation in order to gouge customers at every opportunity while shielding themselves behind a veil of complexity from the prying eyes of regulators (and even top management).	与熊彼特的“创新性破坏”相反，银行家参与破坏性创新是为了抓住一切机会糊弄客户，而它们自己躲在复杂性的面纱之后，逃脱监管者（甚至最高管理层）的监督。


Former US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker has argued, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that the only useful financial innovation in recent years has been the ATM.	前美联储主席保罗·沃克尔半开玩笑地指出，近几年来唯一有用的金融创新就是ATM机。


Hence, the critics are calling for limits on competition to discourage innovation.	因此，批评者呼吁限制竞争，阻止创新。


Of course, the critics are right to argue that not all innovations in finance have been useful, and that some have been downright destructive.	当然，批评者指出并非金融业的每一项创新都有用是不错的，有些甚至具有显著的破坏性。


By and large, however, innovations such as interest-rate swaps and junk bonds have been immensely beneficial, allowing a variety of firms to emerge and obtain finance in a way that simply was not possible before.	不过，总体而言，像利率互换和垃圾债券这样的创新好处是巨大的，它帮助大量企业实现了繁荣，获得了此前不可想象的融资方式。


Even mortgage-backed securities, which were at the center of the financial crisis that erupted in 2008, have important uses in spreading home and auto ownership.	即使被指为2008年爆发的金融危机的罪魁祸首的按揭抵押证券在普及住房和汽车拥有率方面也起到了重大作用。


The problem was not with the innovation, but with how it was used – that is, with financiers’ incentives.	问题不在于创新，而在于如何使用创新——也就是说，在于金融家的激励。


And competition does play a role here.	而竞争确实在这方面起着作用。


Competition makes it harder to make money, and thus depletes the future rents (and stock prices) of the incompetent.	竞争让赚钱变得更难，从而耗尽无能者未来的租（和股价）。


In an ordinary industry, incompetent firms (and their employees) would be forced to exit.	在普通行业，无能企业（及其雇员）将被迫退出。


In the financial sector, the incompetent take on more risk, hoping to hit the jackpot, even while the regulator protects them by deeming them too systemically important to fail.	而在金融部门，无能者会承担更多奉献，希望能够实现逆袭，原因固然是有监管者保护认为它们太大而不能倒，因此保护着它们。


Instead of abandoning competition and giving banks protected monopolies once again, the public would be better served by making it easier to close banks when they get into trouble.	我们不应该抛弃竞争，让银行回到受保护的垄断的老路，让关闭遇到麻烦的银行变得更容易更能保护公众利益。


Instead of making banking boring, let us make it a normal industry, susceptible to destruction in the face of creativity.	我们不应该让银行变得无聊，而应该把它变成常规行业，让它们变得容易因创新而被破坏。


What Drives Moral Progress?	什么推动道德进步？


DAVOS – What would happen if the ancient Greek philosopher Plato partook in contemporary dialogues about the types of questions that he first posed, and that continue to vex us?	达沃斯—如果古希腊哲学家柏拉图在当代对话中分享他第一个提出、仍在困扰我出的问题会怎样？


In my view, he would have many new questions – including about our increasingly psychological approach to philosophical discussion.	在我看来，他会有许多新问题——包括我们在哲学讨论中日益增加的心理方法。


Plato would probably head to a leading global technology hub: Google’s California headquarters.	柏拉图可能会来到引领全球的技术枢纽：谷歌公司加利福尼亚州总部。


There, he might fall into a discussion with a software engineer about, say, whether ethical questions can be answered through crowdsourcing.	在那里，他可能会与软件工程师讨论诸如道德问题是否能通过众包解决之类的话题。


He would probably love the idea of the information cloud – so abstract, so Platonic – and find Google to be the ideal tool to catch up on the vast scientific and technical advances of the last couple of millennia.	他可能会喜欢信息云这个想法——如此抽象，如此柏拉图风格——并发现谷歌是了解过去几个千年中层出不穷的科学和技术进步的理想工具。


But Plato would probably be most amazed by the world’s moral progress.	但柏拉图也许会振奋于世界的道德进步。


After all, he believed that being a “philosopher” meant assuming the responsibilities of moral reformer.	毕竟，他认为，做一个“哲学家”意味着承担起到的改革家的责任。


Yet, though morality was always at the center of his thinking, many of the moral truths that we now take for granted never occurred to him.	但是，尽管道德永远占据着他的思想的核心地位，许多被我们视为理所当然的到的真理他从未遇到过。


For example, though Plato opposed the enslavement of Greeks, he – like every other ancient Greek – condoned the enslavement of “barbarians” (non-Greeks).	比如，尽管柏拉图反对奴化希腊人，但他——和所有古希腊人一样——宽恕奴化“野蛮人”（非希腊人）。


Today, by contrast, even an emphatically non-philosophical person – say, Plato’s “media escort” – could easily explain why slavery is wrong: “A person is a person.	相反，如今即使是最不“哲学家”的人——比如柏拉图的“媒体护卫”（media escort）——也能够轻松地解释为何奴隶制是错误的：“人就是人。


Everybody’s life is just as important as anybody else’s.”	每个人的生命与任何其他人一样重要。 ”


As obvious as this conclusion might seem, the world has taken millennia to reach it – and, in many ways, has yet to accept it fully.	这一结论显而易见，但世界用了几千年的时间才得出这一结论——并且，从很多角度看，仍然没有完全接受这一结论。


Nonetheless, we can now collectively look back at our slave-owning, wife-beating, child-brutalizing, heretic-burning, colonizing forebears and wonder how even the most profoundly moral among them failed to see that they should not behave that way.	尽管如此，如今我们仍可能集体回忆我们的蓄奴、家暴、虐童、烧死异端、殖民他人的祖先，奇怪于即使是他们当中最讲道德的人也没有意识到他们不应该这样做。


What drove this progress?	是什么推动了这一进步？


Plato held that moral progress is essentially an intellectual process, driven by reasoned arguments – a stance that many of the most influential moral philosophers, from Baruch Spinoza and Immanuel Kant to John Rawls and Peter Singer, have supported.	柏拉图认为道德进步本质上是一个知识过程，由理性辩论推动——这一立场受到了许多最有影响力的哲学家的支持，从斯宾诺莎和康德到罗尔斯（John Rawls）到辛格（Peter Singer）都是如此。


Yet many other philosophers have rejected the autocracy of reason in humans’ moral lives, agreeing with David Hume’s assertion that “reason, in itself, is perfectly inert.”	但许多其他这些假拒绝理性在人类道德生活中的支配地位，他们同意休谟的主张：“理性本身完全是惰性的。


They believe that no purely abstract argument can get us to do anything that we do not want to do.	”他们认为没有纯抽象的原因可以让我们做任何我们不想做的东西。


If a reasoned argument cannot move us, what can?	如果理性辩论不能打动我们，什么可以？


One simple answer stands out: emotions.	一个简单的理由应声而出：情感。


Moral emotions, notably empathy, can accomplish what no bloodless ratiocination can: they make us feel – and thus want to account for – the experience of others.	道德情感，特别是同情，可以完成冷血的推理所无法完成的东西：它们让我们感到——从而让我们想顾及到——其他人的体验。


The more we feel, the more we care – and the more moral our motivations.	我们感到的越多，我们就越在乎——我们的动机也越道德。


In short, a stronger sense of empathy spurs moral progress.	简言之，同情感的增强刺激了道德进步。


With this shift in focus from reason to emotion, moral philosophy is increasingly giving way to moral psychology, which, by incorporating ideas from evolutionary biology, has more and more to say about human nature and our moral lives.	随着关注点从理性转向感性，道德哲学日益让位给道德心理学。 道德心理学将思想与演化生物学相结合，在人性和道德生活领域的话语权越来越重。


It all comes down to natural selection.	它可以言简意赅地总结为自然选择。


Moral emotions like empathy are as much an outcome of the blind workings of adaptation as our upright stance and opposable thumbs – traits that are entrenched in a species through the proliferation of particular genes.	同情等道���情感和直立行走和可弯折的大拇指一样，都是适应的不择向的作用，是物种通过特定基因的繁衍而获得的特征。


We humans are most strongly empathetic toward those who share the greatest proportion of our genes: our children, our parents, our siblings, and, by lessening gradations, our extended family and tribe.	我们人类最同情那些与我们共享最大比例基因的物种：我们的孩子、父母、手足，以及等级次之的大家庭和部落。


Our empathy toward them might even drive us to make sacrifices that jeopardize our individual survival, but that makes perfect sense in terms of preserving our shared genes.	我们对他们的同情甚至推动我们作出威胁我们个体生存的牺牲，但这对于保护我们的共有基因来说完全正确。


Of course, empathy is not the only part of our inherited nature that shapes our behavior toward others.	当然，同情并非决定我们对他人行为的天性中的为一部分。


In fact, there is also a compelling evolutionary explanation for xenophobia.	事实上，对于仇外情绪，也有令人信服的进化论解释。


Humans evolved from primates who formed communities that worked together to survive.	人类从灵长类进化而来。 灵长类组成一起工作从而实现存活的社区。


Given the obvious benefits of having access to more territory in which to gather and hunt, outsiders – particularly those who bear characteristics that mark them as genetically distant – were treated as foes.	进入更多狩猎采集领地的好处显而易见，因此外来者——特别是那些具备表现出基因不同的特征的外来者——被视为危害。


In this sense, the notion of “us versus them” has been fundamental to human evolution, and it continues to shape our interactions.	从这角度讲，“我们和他们”是人类进化的根本，并一直在左右我们的互动。


Just as both empathy and xenophobia can be explained by natural selection, both can be modulated by cultural factors.	正如同情和仇外都可以解释为自然选择，它们也都可以通过文化因素调节。


But do they have equal claims to being moral emotions?	但他们对道德情感的作用相同吗？


Within the strict domain of moral psychology, they do.	在狭义道德心理学中，答案是肯定的。


After all, a psychological telling of the story of our moral development provides no basis for encouraging us to dampen one natural inclination and nurture another.	毕竟，对我们道德发展的心理学描述并没有提供鼓励我们抑制一种自然倾向而培养另一种的基础。


But moral psychology does not have to tell the whole story.	但道德心理学并不一定是故事的全部。


There is no reason why we cannot have moral psychology and moral philosophy: moral psychology to explain why moral progress is both possible and painfully slow, and moral philosophy to clarify what constitutes moral progress and to push us in the appropriate direction.	没有理由认为我们不能同时拥有道德心理学和道德哲学：道德心理学用来解释为何道德进步既是可能的，过程又极为缓慢； 而道德哲学可以澄清是什么构成了道德进步，并把我们引向正确的方向。


We are reasoning, deliberating human beings, and our genes are not the masters of our fate.	我们是讲理性、有思想的人类，我们的基因不是我们的命运主宰。


We should not become so enthralled by the explanatory power of the behavioral sciences that we succumb to the belief that moral progress is predetermined.	我们不应该被行为科学的解释力所奴役，以至于陷入了道德进步被事先决定的窠臼。


Psychology tells a diminished story that leaves out our past moral advances and the hard argumentative work required to expand those advances in the future.	心理学叙事是不完整的，漏掉了我们过去的道德进步和在未来扩大进步所需要的艰苦的辩论工作。


Plato would reject this view.	柏拉图将拒绝这一观点。


So should we.	我们也应该如此。


Renewable Energy and Middle East Economic Renewal	可再生能源和中东经济再生


FEZ – The global oil-price bust has devastated economies across the Middle East and North Africa.	菲兹（FEZ）—全球石油价格崩溃给中东和北非经济体带来了灾难。


Having seen severe price declines in the past, many leaders in the region may be tempted to wait for prices to rise again.	该地区许多曾目睹过此前价格暴跌的领导人可能会坐等价格回升。


But this collapse is different, and governments need new energy and development strategies.	但这次崩溃不一样，政府无需要新的能源和发展战略。


Morocco’s drive to become a regional renewable-energy powerhouse offers a real option for economic development in other Arab countries.	摩洛哥转型为地区可再生能源强国的努力为其他阿拉伯国家提供了现实的经济发展选择。


Morocco has been investing in large-scale renewable-energy projects for some time; but only now are these investments coming online.	摩洛哥大规模投资于可再生能源项目已经有些时日； 但直到现在，这些投资才陆续上线。


Perhaps the most impressive is the gigantic Noor-1 solar-energy compound, located in the Moroccan desert near Ouarzazate.	也许最令人印象深刻的是坐落于瓦尔扎扎特（Ouarzazate）附近的巨大的Noor-1太阳能复合体。


Opened on February 4, Noor-1 uses highly advanced technology to store energy for use at night and on cloudy days.	Noor-1于2月4日开张，它使用先进科技储存能源用于夜晚和多云的时候。


Considered the largest solar power plant in the world, Noor-1 is expected to produce enough energy for more than a million people, with extra power eventually to be exported to Europe and Africa, according to the World Bank.	Noor-1被认为是世界上最大的太阳能发电站，据世界银行数据，预计能生产足够一百多万人使用的能源，剩余电力最终将出口至欧洲和非洲。


Given that Morocco imports around 97% of its energy supply, and possesses no oil or natural gas deposits of its own, the government has viewed developing renewable energy as the only way to ensure the country’s continuing economic development.	摩洛哥能源供给97%左右需要进口，自身也不拥有石油或天然气储量，其政府将开发可再生能源视为确保摩洛哥经济持续发展的唯一道路。


This is an insight others in the region should heed.	地区内其他国家应该效仿这一洞见。


The Noor-1 project, covering an area of more than 4.5 square kilometers (1.7 square miles) with 500,000 curved mirrors – some as high as 12 meters – cost around $700 million.	Noor-1工程覆盖面积超过4. 5平方公里，拥有500,000块曲面镜——其中一些高达12米——耗资7亿美元左右。


But it is intended to be only one part of a huge solar compound extending over 30 square kilometers.	但它其实只是一个占地面积超30平方公里的巨大太阳能复合体的一部分。


Indeed, by 2018, three more plants, Noor-II, Noor-III, and Noor-Midelt will be constructed, using a combination of technologies, including thermosolar and photovoltaic.	事实上，到2018年，另外三座发电站——Noor-II、Noor-III和Noor-Midelt都将建设完成，采用包括太阳集热和光伏在内的组合技术。


The project will generate up to 2,000 megawatts daily by 2020, helping to reduce the development gap between urban and rural areas.	到2020年，这项工程每天最多能够发电2,000百万瓦，有助于缩小城市和农村地区的发展差距。


Of course, the project has demanded huge sums in investment.	当然，该工程需要巨大的投资总量。


Of the $9 billion project’s financing, some $1 billion has come from a German investment bank, $400 million from the World Bank, and $596 million from the European Investment Bank.	在该工程的90亿美元融资中，大约10亿美元来自一家德国投资银行，4亿美元来自世界银行，5. 96亿美元来自欧洲投资银行。


The rest of the funding has come from Morocco’s government as part of its national development strategy.	其他资金来自摩洛哥政府，作为其国家发展战略的一部分。


In the near future, Morocco will also develop a wind program with a capacity of at least 2,000 MW daily, and a 2,000 MW hydropower project.	在不远的将来，摩洛哥还将开发日发电量至少达到2,000百万瓦的风电项目和2,000百万瓦的水电项目。


These could provide the country with 42% of its total electricity production.	这些项目可以为摩洛哥提供发电总量的42%。


This represents an unparalleled proportion of renewable energy at both the regional and the international levels.	不论从地区还是国际层面看，可再生能源比重之高都是鲜有匹敌的。


Already, the Tarfaya Wind Farm, positioned on Morocco’s Southern Atlantic Coast, is Africa’s biggest.	目前，坐落于摩洛哥西南大西洋沿岸的塔法雅（Tarfaya）风电场已是非洲最大。


With 131 turbines and a daily capacity of more than 300 MW, Tarfaya will help reduce Morocco’s carbon dioxide emissions by 900,000 tons annually, and cut the country’s annual oil import bill by more than $190 million.	塔法雅风电场拥有131个风机涡轮，日发电能力超300百万瓦，可以让摩洛哥每年减少二氧化碳排放量900,000吨，并节约1. 9亿美元以上的石油进口资金。


Despite this focus on renewables, Morocco has not gone cold turkey on traditional energy sources.	尽管如此着重可再生能源，但摩洛哥仍无法完全摆脱传统能源资源。


Over the next five years, the authorities will set up the infrastructure needed to make liquefied natural gas (LNG) more accessible to domestic industries.	未来五年，当局将进行必要基础设施投资，使液化天然气更加便利地进入国内产业。


This is a huge endeavor, as it also includes a port with an LNG dock and a 400-kilometer pipeline.	这是一项巨大的工程，包括一个拥有液化天然气船坞的港口和400公里的管道。


This remarkable project will cost another $4.5 billion, all of which will come from the private sector.	这一引人注目的工程将耗资45亿美元，将全部来自私人部门。


With demand for electricity, mostly from the country’s expanding industries, rising by 7% annually, Morocco’s government has long known that it could not sit still.	电力需求——主要来自摩洛哥不断扩张的各产业——每年都要增长7%，摩洛哥政府很早就明白不能原地踏步。


Today, 90% of the Moroccan population is connected to the grid, up dramatically from the 1990s, when that figure stood at just 18%.	如今，90%的摩洛哥人口能够接入电网，比20世纪90年代18%的数字大幅提升。


Over this period, the country’s investments in electrification rose to more than $3 billion annually.	在此期间，摩洛哥电力化投资已增长至每年30亿美元以上。


Morocco’s government is convinced that reform and development will confirm its emergence as a regional leader and gateway to Africa.	摩洛哥政府相信，改革和发展能够确保摩洛哥崛起成为地区领导者和非洲门户。


Increased access to renewable energy will mean that all companies will have sufficient power to meet their needs, which is essential to the country’s ability to diversify its economy.	更多采用可再生能源将意味着所有公司都能获得足够的电力满足需要，而这是摩洛哥实现经济多元化的关键。


Investors are aware of Morocco’s exceptional geographic position and its political stability in a region all too often held back by uncertainty.	投资者都明白摩洛哥无与伦比的地理位置和其在饱受不确定性困扰地区中的政治稳定。


The country’s giant solar complex and other investments will help boost the country’s energy independence, reduce costs, and expand access to power.	摩洛哥巨大的太阳能复合体和其他投资有助于提高其能源自给率、降低成本和扩大电力普及。


Others in Africa and the Middle East should take note.	非洲和中东的其他国家应该引起注意。


Morocco’s Veiled Feminists	蒙着面纱的摩洛哥女权主义者


It is often assumed that modern feminism has no place, and thus can make little headway, in societies undergoing a religious revival, particularly in the Islamic world.	人们常常想当然地认为现代女权主义在宗教复兴的社会、特别是伊斯兰世界没有立足之地，所以也不可能取得任何进展。


But the real progress made in recent years on women’s rights in Morocco suggests otherwise: a unique combination of activism by secular and religious women, the calculations of political parties, and a significant role for the King has led to real progress.	但是摩洛哥近年来妇女权利的进步表明情况恰恰相反：世俗和宗教妇女的激进思想、各政党的考虑算计和国王发挥的重大作用这三种因素巧妙的融合起来，共同促成了这种实质性的进步。


Pioneering Moroccan feminists began their work soon after independence in 1956.	摩洛哥女权主义先驱们在1956年国家获得独立之后不久就投身于他们的追求。


By and large representative of a liberal perspective, they nonetheless recognized the importance of Islam throughout Moroccan society.	虽然总体而言他们代表自由主义，但是他们也认识到了伊斯兰教在整个摩洛哥社会中的重要地位。


As a result, they took care to frame their demands in ways that provided a measure of Islamic identity.	所以，他们采取有一定伊斯兰教特征的方法，谨慎地表达自己的诉求。


This first generation of Moroccan feminists was guided by a key insight: the interactions of men and women were not dictated by religion, but by social practices that had often used religion as a means of reinforcement.	摩洛哥第一代女权主义者受到的主要核心思想是，控制男女互动的不是宗教，而是社会传统。 社会传统常常利用宗教得到加强。


For example, women and their sexual purity were linked with the honor of men and their families – a connection that was defended by grounding it in Islam.	例如，妇女和她们的性纯洁与男人和他们家族的荣誉紧密相连，通过把它作为伊斯兰的基本教义而维护这一联系。


For these activists, such linkages were intended to maintain control over women, and were part of Moroccan society, not Islam.	对于这些激进主义者而言，这种关联就是为了维持对妇女的控制，是摩洛哥社会、而非伊斯兰的组成部分。


By the 1990’s, Morocco was feeling the impact of the Iranian Revolution and America’s post-Cold War emergence as the sole global superpower.	到了20世纪90年代，摩洛哥感受到了伊朗革命和冷战后美国成为唯一全球超级大国所带来的冲击。


Like many Muslim countries in this new era, Morocco began to experience a revitalization of political Islam.	如同这个新时代的众多穆斯林国家一样，摩洛哥开始经历伊斯兰教在政治上的复兴。


This threatened the authority of the King, who had overseen the religious establishment, as well as feminists’ efforts to moderate Morocco’s Family Law, which had been based on a rigid view of religious teachings.	这威胁到了国王的权力。 国王历来监督宗教组织，以及意识到女权主义者正致力于将建立在严格宗教教义观点的摩洛哥家庭法温和化。


But the same de-centralization of authority that had empowered Islamist movements also empowered Moroccan women.	但是这一推动了伊斯兰运动的权力分散化也同时也将权力赋予了摩洛哥妇女。


Better educated and more in touch with global currents through the media or their own travel, women began participating in Moroccan political debates.	妇女们受过更好的教育，通过媒体和亲身旅行体验更多地接触到全球潮流，她们开始参与到摩洛哥的政治辩论中来。


They challenged the disparities in legal treatment of women, broached new ideas concerning the role of women in Moroccan society, and questioned practices that had long been understood as Islamic.	她们向妇女受到的不平等法律待遇发起挑战，对妇女在摩洛哥社会中的角色提出新的思想，并且对长期以来一直被当作伊斯兰教义的惯例表示质疑。


Their strategy shifted as well, focusing on the growing importance of religious values in shaping societies and global relations.	她们的策略也发生了变化，更多地集中于宗教价值在塑造社会和全球关系中日益增长的重要性。


As a result, the veil became a mechanism for making their presence felt publicly and gaining credibility within religious debates.	所以，面纱成为一种让公众感觉到她们的存在并且在宗教辩论中赢得可信度的方法。


Over the past decade, the number of Moroccan women taking an active role in Islamist associations or political parties increased dramatically.	在过去的十年中，积极参加伊斯兰教协会或政党的摩洛哥妇女人数大幅增加。


The growing significance of the veil also highlighted important differences between men and women in Morocco.	面纱的重要性越来越强，这也突显了摩洛哥男女之间的巨大差别。


For many men, Islamist or not, the veil remains a sign of Islamic affiliation and traditional piety.	对于许多男人而言，无论是否信奉伊斯兰教，面纱仍然是信奉伊斯兰教和虔敬社会传统的标志。


For many women, however, the veil is a token of liberation – an indication that they have engaged with the Moroccan public in ways that reflect their own sense of religious practice.	然而，对于许多妇女而言，面纱已经成为一种解放的象征，表明她们已经参与到摩洛哥的公众活动中来，反映自己对宗教活动的认识和见解。


Liberal Moroccan feminists understand this use of the veil by many Moroccan women, and they have encouraged a dialogue with veiled activists from the Islamist camp.	摩洛哥的自由派女权主义者明白许多摩洛哥妇女使用面纱取得的这种效果，他们鼓励与伊斯兰教阵营中带着面纱的激进主义者进行对话。


The signs of cooperation have been clear: increasing use of Arabic, rather than French, discussions that incorporate real knowledge of Islamic scripture, and recognition that Islam remains distinct from traditional practices.	合作的信号很明显：越来越多地使用阿拉伯语而不是法语、讨论伊斯兰教经文中的实际知识并且承认伊斯兰教依然与传统做法有所不同。


At the same time, liberal feminists began to invest more effort in civic associations, rather than political parties.	与此同时，自由派女权主义者开始把更多的精力投入到民间协会，而不是各个政党。


This broadened their focus to Moroccan society as a whole and questions of how people could be empowered to improve their lives.	这拓宽了他们对摩洛哥社会的整体关注范围，更多地关注如何向人民赋予权力以提高他们的生活水平。


As a result, liberal feminists have increased their influence among both decision makers and religious women.	结果，自由派女权主义者扩大了他们在决策者和宗教妇女中的影响。


All of this comes at a time of greater political openness and democratization: the first ever socialist government in 1998, a younger and more open King – described by democrats of both sexes of Morocco’s “first feminist” – who took the throne in 1999, and a quota system that brought 35 women into the Parliament in 2002.	这一切都发生于一个政治开放度更高和更加民主化的时代。 1998年第一次组建的社会党政府、一个更加年轻和开放的国王（这是摩洛哥“第一代女权主义者”中男女民主党人对他的描述）于1999年登基、一种定额分配制度使得35名妇女在2002年进入议会。


This Parliament enacted a new Family Law in 2004 that mandates full equality between men and women as “head of household,” full authority for state courts in matters of divorce, creation of special family courts, and the possibility of maternal custody in the event of divorce.	2004年该届议会颁布新的家庭法规定男女完全平等，都是“一家之主”； 国家法院全权处理离婚案件；


Thus, in Morocco, it is difficult to speak of separate “secular” and “Islamic” feminisms.	因此，在摩洛哥难以区分“世俗”和“伊斯兰教”女权主义者。


Women are increasingly making the argument that they have been deliberately excluded from a full role in society not because Islam prescribes it, but because Islam was revealed in a deeply patriarchal social context.	妇女们越来越坚持这种看法，那就是她们被故意排除在社会之外，无法充分发挥自己的作用，不是因为伊斯兰教有这样的规定，而是因为伊斯兰教在一个父权色彩特别深厚的社会环境之中得到解释。


Feminist interpretations of religious texts – encouraged by increasing numbers of women in prominent religious positions – continue to challenge traditionalists of all stripes.	越来越多占据线和宗教地位的妇女鼓励女权主义者对宗教经文进行解读，继续向各种派别的传统主义者发起挑战。


The women’s movement in Morocco – which now bridges secular and religious communities – is setting an example of the power of social thought in a traditional society.	摩洛哥的妇女运动在世俗教和宗教团体之间架设了一座桥梁，为在传统社会中发挥社会思潮的力量设立了一个榜样。


Re-visiting traditional interpretations of Scripture is not the end of the story.	对经文进行重新解读不是终结。


Out of this ferment, Morocco has not only revised its Family Law, but also fundamental laws governing nationality, media ownership, and political organizations.	在这场运动中，摩洛哥不仅修改了家庭法，而且还修改了有关国籍、控制所有权和政治组织的基本法律。


Women’s advocacy has also shaped a new approach to poverty alleviation in Morocco, in the form of the National Initiative for Human Development, which integrates efforts to improve education with better sanitation and housing.	妇女的拥护也为摩洛哥带来了一种新的扶贫方法，那就是国家人力开发计划。 这个计划将各方联合起来共同致力于改善教育、卫生设施和居住条件。


It is no exaggeration to say that the Moroccan women’s movement has become the cutting edge of reform, engaging Islamization, modernization, democratization, and feminism.	毫不夸张地说，摩洛哥的妇女运动接触交融伊斯兰化、现代化、民主化和男女平等，已经成为改革的先锋力量。


The End of Malaria?	疟疾的终结？


WASHINGTON, DC – For those on the frontline of the battle against malaria, news of the development of a vaccine against the parasite is an exciting development.	华盛顿——对那些战斗在抗击疟疾第一线的人而言，抗寄生虫疫苗研发成功是一项令人鼓舞的进展。


In 2013, the disease was responsible for 584,000 deaths, nearly 90% of them in Sub-Saharan Africa; some 78% of its victims are children under the age of five.	2013年，疟疾造成584,000人死亡，其中近90%生活在撒哈拉以南非洲； 约有78%的受害者是五岁以下儿童。


In the 97 countries in which malaria is endemic, it ravages the economic productivity of those who can least afford it: poor people with limited access to treatment and care.	在疟疾流行的97个国家中，最贫困群体的经济生产率惨遭蹂躏：贫困者很少有机会接受护理和治疗。


In July, the European Medicines Agency approved RTS,S – a vaccine also known by its trade name, Mosquirix – for use in children from six weeks to 17 months old.	今年七月，欧盟人类医学监督管理机构批准将RTS,S——一种商品名为Mosquirix的疫苗——用于6周至17个月大的儿童。


The global health community has long appreciated the importance of a vaccine in reducing the disease’s burden, and the World Health Organization is expected to make an announcement in November about the use of Mosquirix in countries where malaria is endemic, some 30 excruciating years after researchers at the pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) began working on the vaccine.	全球卫生界早已意识到缓解疟疾负担时疫苗的重要性，在制药公司葛兰素史克（GSK）的研究人员开始疫苗研制工作漫长而痛苦的30年后，预计世卫组织将于11月就Mosquirix在疟疾流行国的应用发布公告。


The approval is a significant step in the right direction for the prevention and control of malaria.	上述批准是为预防和控制疟疾朝着正确方向迈出的重要步骤。


It is also a testament to the enduring power of social philanthropy, partnerships, and international collaborations.	这也证明了社会慈善事业、伙伴关系和国际合作的持久力量。


However, many questions about the vaccine’s deployment – and its integration into the health systems of some of the world’s poorest countries – remain to be answered.	但疫苗实际应用——及融入世界某些最贫困国家卫生系统方面仍有很多问题需要解答。


Cost is probably the most important issue.	成本可能是最重要的问题。


Many of the people who most need the new vaccine are poor.	最需要新疫苗的大都是穷人。


It remains to be seen whether “equity pricing” will be feasible, considering the millions of dollars invested into research and development.	鉴于数百万美元的研究和开发资金，“公平价格”是否可行还有待观察。


GSK has said that Mosquirix will be offered “not for profit”; but the pharmaceutical company still must break even.	葛兰素史克曾表示Mosquirix的供应将“不以盈利为目的”； 但制药公司仍然必须做到收支平衡。


And who will actually pay?	费用将由谁支付？


Many African governments have shown some willingness to invest in public health infrastructure in the past; but a political commitment to the vaccine could mean redirection of resources from other important tools, including rapid test kits, cheap drugs, safe insecticides, and long-lasting insecticidal bed nets.	许多非洲国家之前已经表态愿意投资公共卫生基础设施； 但将疫苗推广设为政治目标可能造成其它重要工具资金被挪用，包括快速检测试剂盒、廉价药品、安全杀虫剂和长效杀虫��帐。


International non-governmental organizations and private foundations have collaborated with the public sector in the fight against malaria, providing funds and bringing attention to the issue.	国际非政府组织和私人基金在抗击疟疾的斗争中与公共部门合作，宣传这项事业并为其提供资金。


It might be asking too much to expect them to pay for the vaccine.	希望他们承担疫苗费用可能有些要求过高。


There are also questions about some countries’ capacity to distribute the vaccine, as well as uncertainty about how it will hold up under real-world conditions.	有些国家分配疫苗的能力也受到质疑，疫苗在现实条件下的效果也存在不确定性。


For example, the testing for Mosquirix did not account for the possibility that parents would neglect to use insecticide-treated nets for their children because of a false sense of safety and security provided by the vaccine.	比如，Mosquirix测试时并未考虑到因为疫苗所提供的安全错觉，家长忽略了给孩子使用驱虫蚊帐。


Moreover, in order to maintain the vaccine’s efficacy, a booster needs to be delivered after the initial three doses.	此外，为了保持疫苗效力，最初三次注射后还需要打一支增效针。


Without it, effectiveness drops to non-protective levels.	不注射增效针疫苗就无法提供保护。


Will governments really be willing to spend millions of dollars on this?	政府是否会真的愿意为此花费数百万美元？


Finally, many parents in Sub-Saharan Africa currently do not immunize their children for a variety of reasons, including distrust of health officials and ignorance.	最后，许多撒哈拉以南非洲地区的家长出于对医疗人员缺乏信任和无知等种种原因目前并未替孩子进行疫苗接种。


The polio vaccine faced an uphill battle in Nigeria, and the new malaria vaccine could suffer a similar fate.	脊髓灰质炎疫苗在尼日利亚就面临一场艰苦的战斗，新疟疾疫苗也可能面临同样的命运。


Governments will have to decide whether to make its use compulsory or provide incentives for those who choose to vaccinate their children.	政府必须决定是否要强制注射疫苗或奖励选择接种者。


The approval of Mosquirix opens a promising new phase in the fight against malaria.	批准Mosquirix将为疟疾抗击战开创光明的前景。


But serious challenges abound.	但人们仍然面临着严重的挑战。


To meet them, African countries must initiate, develop, and support homegrown research capacity and leaner models for delivering care.	要想实现目标，非洲国家必须启动、开创和支持本土研发能力，以及提供服务的学习模型。


Research and investment in physical and social infrastructure must be a high priority as well.	研究和投资物质和社会基础设施也必须成为一项首要目标。


In the time it has taken to read this article, five children will have died from malaria.	在读完这篇文章的很短的时间里，就有五个孩子因为疟疾而丧生。


Ten years from now, that statistic could be no more than a bad memory, thanks to Mosquirix.	多亏有了Mosquirix，10年后这一可怕的统计数据可能仅留在人们的记忆当中。


At the very least, the world now has a new weapon in the fight to reduce the disease’s toll.	最起码，现在世界又有了新武器降低疟疾的死亡人数。


Mothers of the Disappeared	失踪者的母亲


WASHINGTON, DC – “We were seeking justice.	华盛顿——“我们正在寻求正义。


We wanted to prevent disappearance, for it to end.	我们希望防止失踪，结束这样的日子。


Unfortunately, I still see girls disappearing.	不幸的是，我仍然看到女孩消失。


I don’t want to be negative, but I don’t know when this will stop,” said Paula Flores of Juárez, Mexico, on July 3, 2016, 18 years after the disappearance and murder of her daughter, María Sagrario González Flores.	我不想给人留下消极的印象，但我不知道什么时候这样的日子才能结束，”在女儿玛丽亚·冈萨雷斯·萨格拉里奥·弗洛雷斯失踪并被杀十八年后的2016年7月3日，墨西哥华雷斯的保拉·弗洛雷斯如是说。


Women like Flores, especially mothers of victims of violence, are constantly at the forefront of human-rights activism on issues like forced disappearance, femicide, and abuses by the military.	像弗洛雷斯这样的女性，特别是暴力行为受害者的母亲，一直坚守在反抗强制失踪、杀害妇女和军方虐待问题的前沿阵地。


Where state institutions or elected officials fail to take action against such violence, these women have filled a vacuum, challenging traditional gender roles in the process.	在国家机构或当选官员未能采取措施反对这些暴力活动的时候，这些女性填补了上述真空，并在此过程中挑战了传统的性别角色。


Demanding justice in Mexico, a country where 98% of crimes fail to result in convictions, is no easy task.	在墨西哥这个98%的犯罪行为都未能定罪的国家，伸张正义绝非易事。


The country’s activist mothers and grandmothers follow in the Latin American tradition of predecessors like the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo, who in 1977 began to march in front of the presidential palace in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to protest the mass disappearance of children under the military dictatorship.	该国身为活动人士的母亲和祖母继承了1977年开始在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯总统官邸前游行的5月广场母亲等拉丁美洲前辈的传统，抗议军事独裁统治下儿童的大规模失踪。


They marched weekly for years, forcing public discussion of human rights abuses under the dictatorship.	她们常年坚持每周游行，迫使公众舆论探讨独裁统治下的践踏人权问题。