In September, the United Nations Office on Drugs Crime announced that poppy cultivation soared by a record-high 60%.	在九月，联合国毒品犯罪办公室宣布罂粟种植创纪录地增长了60%。


Eradication will never be successful in Afghanistan, because it destroys the single crop that will grow in the south’s harsh climate – and thus serves as the main source of income to millions of people.	铲除罂粟种植在阿富汗永远不会成功，因为它摧毁的是唯一一种能在南方的恶劣气候中生长的作物—而它又是上百万人的主要收入来源。


So a new, long-term, economically sustainable solution is urgently needed – one that directly engages with the communities that are suffering most – in order to achieve the support of the deeply impoverished rural population.	所以，现在急需一个新的、长期的、并且在经济层面上可持续的解决方案—一个与最困苦的当地社区直接相关的方案—从而赢得最贫困的农村人口的支持。


As a way to address this dilemma, the Senlis Council is proposing to run scientific pilot projects to research an opium licensing system for Afghanistan, which would be a core component of the economic reconstruction process.	作为摆脱困境的途径之一，“森利斯委员会”（Senlis Council）正提议为研究针对阿富汗的鸦片许可体系而进行科学试点项目。 这可能会成为经济重建进程中的一个核心组成部分。


A system in which poppy is cultivated under license for the production of pain-killing medicines such as morphine and codeine would allow farmers to pursue their traditional livelihood and way of life, and, more importantly, to feed themselves and their families.	它是一种为生产吗啡和可待因等止痛药而特许种植罂粟的制度。 这种制度能让农民继续他们传统的谋生方式，更重要的是可以让他们养家糊口。


There is a global shortage of morphine and codeine, particularly in underdeveloped countries, where these vital medicines are often in short supply, if not completely unavailable.	全球的吗啡和可待因供应短缺。 特别在欠发达国家，这些重要药品即便不是没有也是紧缺的。


Not only would poppy licensing address the poverty and hunger crises that have engulfed the south of Afghanistan; it also would stabilize existing local structures, giving communities a reason to support President Hamid Karzai’s government and the international community.	罂粟种植许可制度不仅可以缓解笼罩在阿富汗南部的贫穷和饥饿危机； 它还能稳定现有的本地架构，给与当地社会足够的理由支持卡尔扎伊总统的政府和国际社会。


Farmers would gain a sense of ownership in counter-narcotics efforts, in sharp contrast to the current idealistic – and evidently un-achievable – policy of crop eradication.	与现行的、理想主义的—且明显难以为继的—铲除行动形成鲜明对比的，是农民们在反毒品的计划中还能获得一种主人翁的感觉。


We must have the backing of the Afghan people if we are to defeat the Taliban.	如果要击败塔利班，我们必须要有阿富汗人民的支持。


By endorsing such an initiative, the international community would demonstrate that it is in Afghanistan for the good of the local population, which would help farmers sever ties with the insurgency.	通过采取如是的举措，国际社会可以证明它在阿富汗的目的是为了当地民众的利益，从而帮助农民切断与叛乱的联系。


But for such a system to be successful, the extreme poverty in the south of the country must first be our top priority.	但这样一个体系要取得成功，该国南方的赤贫问题就是我们的当务之急。


According to the World Food Program, 70% of the population lack food security.	据“世界粮食计划”统计，当地70%的人口缺少食品安��。


An immediate injection of emergency food and medical aid is urgently needed to break the vicious circle of suffering and violence.	马上输入紧急食物和医疗援助是打破困苦和暴力的恶性循环所急需的。


Only then could a new, long-term development strategy in Afghanistan – one that admits that the international community is not winning the war, and that the status quo is unacceptable – be implemented.	只有到那时，一个在阿富汗的新的长期发展战略—一个承认国际社会正在战争中落败，且当前形势不可接受的战略—才能付诸实施。


Licensing the opium crop would be a realistic and pragmatic cornerstone of that strategy’s success.	鸦片种植许可制度会是这一战略成功的一个现实而切实的里程碑。


The Western Alliance in the Digital Age	数字时代的西方联盟


MUNICH – This weekend, Helmut Schmidt and Henry Kissinger will participate in a discussion at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) – just as they did a half-century ago, when they took part in the first “Internationale Wehrkunde-Begegnung” (the forerunner of today’s conference).	慕尼黑—这个周末，赫尔穆特·施密特（Helmut Schmidt）和亨利·基辛格将在慕尼黑安全会议（MSC）上参与讨论——半个世纪前，��MSC的前身第一次举办时，他们就曾经参与过讨论。


In the meantime, many developments around the world have given us reason to rejoice – but also to reflect.	与此同时，世界各地的许多发展趋势让我们兴奋，也让我们深思。


It is not only the crises extending from Ukraine to Syria that will prevent the MSC, the fiftieth, from becoming an exercise in self-celebration.	让第十五届MSC无法成为欢庆舞台的不仅仅是乌克兰和叙利亚危机的发酵。


The transatlantic partnership, traditionally the backbone of the conference, has seen better days than these.	大西洋两岸的伙伴关系，MSC的传统基石也不如以前那样牢固了。


The United States has now at least recognized that a great deal of trust has been lost in recent months, owing to the scale of surveillance undertaken by its National Security Agency.	如今，美国至少已经意识到，因为其国家安全局的监控行为，它在最近几个月损失了很多的信任。


President Barack Obama’s speech about reforms of US intelligence-gathering activities, as well as his subsequent interview on German television, represented a first attempt to regain the confidence of America’s allies.	总统奥巴马关于美国情报搜集行动改革的演讲以及随后参与的德国电视访问算得上重新争取美国盟友信任的第一批动作。


But it signals, at most, the beginning of an intensive transatlantic dialogue on the issue.	但这充其量只是开始加强关于这一问题的跨大西洋对话的信号。


The topic is too broad to be discussed solely among governments and secret services.	这个主题所涉太广，无法只在政府和秘密机构间讨论。


What we need is a more comprehensive international debate that engages, say, the American and German publics, as well as the US Congress and the German Bundestag – in short, an intra-Western debate about our relationship in the digital age.	我们需要的是一场更全面的国际讨论，包括（比如）美国和德国公众以及美国国会和德国联邦议会——简言之，这应该是一场关于我们在数字时代的关系的泛西方的讨论。


In 1963, when Ewald von Kleist invited participants to Munich for the first conference, which Americans fondly call the “Wehrkunde” to this day, the motivating idea was to invite our most important allies to a discussion about the major strategic issues directly affecting Germany and NATO.	1963年，克莱斯特（Ewald von Kleist）来到慕尼黑参加美国人今天天真地称为“Wehrkunde”的第一届会议，其初衷是邀请我们最重要的盟友讨论直接影响德国和北约的重大战略问题。


The main topic, at that time, was the Atlantic Alliance’s nuclear strategy.	当时的主要议题是北约的核战略。


After all, Germany would have been the first victim of a nuclear confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries.	毕竟如果北约和华约爆发核冲突，德国将是首当其冲者。


Kleist wanted to contribute to the creation of a German “strategic community,” which could make its own contributions to the NATO debate, rather than just absorbing whatever their technologically superior US ally proposed.	克莱斯特希望推动成立德国的“战略社区”，进而在北约的讨论中起到作用，而不仅仅是唯其名义上的上级美国的马首是瞻。


In a way, we are in a similar situation today.	从某种程度上说，如今我们面临相同的局面。


Though the security implications of the digital age are less tangible and not as destructive as a nuclear attack, the technological possibilities fundamentally alter the playing field of international relations.	与核打击相比，数字时代的安全影响并不那么有形，也不那么具有破坏性，尽管如此，技术可行性仍从根本上改变了国际关系竞技场。


The revelations concerning the NSA’s surveillance activities are just the start.	美国国安局监控行为只是揭开了冰山一角。


A future of “thinking drones” and defensive and offensive cyber weapons raises new ethical, legal, and political questions.	未来的“思想无人机”和防御性和进攻性网络武器将带来新的伦理、法律和政治问题。


We Europeans need to be self-critical and admit that we are not only lagging behind in terms of technical capabilities; we are also in danger of not fully grasping in time the possibilities and dangers of the digital world.	我们欧洲人需要自我批判并承认我们不但拖了技术能力的后腿； 我们还有可能无法在第一时间把握数字世界的可能性和危险性。


And of course, we will hardly be able to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Americans on cyber issues unless we succeed in establishing a united stance within the European Union.	当然，除非我们在欧盟内部成功形成了统一战线，否则不可能与美国人展开有意义的谈话。


Doing so would put us in far better position to negotiate on equal terms with the US, just as we can on trade issues.	实现这一目标能让我们更加有利地与美国展开平等谈判，正如我们在贸易问题上做得那样。


In the past, the Western allies’ participation in NATO and its Nuclear Planning Group accommodated their concerns and prevented them from becoming mere objects of US strategy.	在过去，西方盟国加入北约及其核计划集团（Nuclear Planning Group）安抚了它们的担忧，也防止了它们沦为美国战略的目标。


Today, we need similar initiatives with regard to the digital world.	如今，我们需要在数字世界做同样的安排。


Those hoping to achieve true cooperation must be willing to make their own contributions.	要想形成真正的合作就必须做出自己的贡献。


This year’s MSC will include not only security officials from many countries.	今年的MSC不仅将包括来自多个国家的安全官员。


Three dozen German MPs and a significant US Congressional delegation will also participate.	三十六位德国联邦议会议员和庞大的美国国会代表团也将出席。


That is why the conference is an excellent opportunity to step up the transatlantic debate.	正因如此，本届会议将是建立跨大西洋讨论的绝佳机会。


After all, let’s be honest: there will be real changes in US intelligence agencies’ behavior only if Congress regulates their activities more strictly.	毕竟，我们应该坦承，只有国会更严格地规范其行为，美国情报机构的行动才会发生实质改变。


The revelations and resulting debates in recent months have shown that many US politicians are also uneasy about the liberties taken by the secret services.	最近几个月以来的事件发酵和由此带来的争论表明，许多美国政客也对秘密机构干涉自由深感忧虑。


However, without domestic pressure, little will change.	但是，没有国内压力就不可能出现多少变化。


It is all the more important that societal stakeholders – companies, NGOs, or international commissions of experts – both here and in the US become more heavily involved than before.	欧洲和美国的社会各界——公司、非政府组织或国际专家委员会——比从前更积极地加入其中是至关重要的。


This issue affects us all.	这一问题影响着我们所有人。


The debate is not – and should not be – between Europe and the US.	这一讨论不是——也不应该是——欧洲和美国的讨论。


Some Americans are grateful for Edward J. Snowden’s revelations about the NSA, which they believe have stimulated urgently needed public deliberation.	一些美国人也感谢斯诺登（Edward J. Snowden）揭发国安局，他们认为这刺激了急需的公共思考。


The institutionally assured possibility of self-criticism is, arguably, the West’s best characteristic – its outstanding trait.	有制度保证的自我批判是西方最优秀的品质，也是它的突出特征。


Our democracies are better organized than other systems to scrutinize their own policies and respond to criticism.	我们的民主制度在监督我们自己的政策和相应批评方面比其他制度更加井井有条。


In the 1960’s, the West had to agree on a common strategy for the nuclear age, and learn to deal with the atomic threat.	20世纪60年代，西方需要在核时代的共同战略上达成一致，并研究如何应对原子威胁。


Subsequently, we were able to take the first steps toward arms control and disarmament.	随后，我们就迈出了通向核武器控制和去核化的第一步。


Today, we need a similar debate in the West regarding our strategy for the digital age if we want to overcome new challenges without denying our identity as liberal democracies.	如今，西方需要类似的讨论思考信息时代战略，如果我们想克服新挑战又不否定我们的自由民主国家身份的话。


This weekend in Munich, the Schmidts and Kissingers of today and tomorrow will have an opportunity to engage in what is probably the most important strategic debate of our time: how to prevent the West from falling apart in	在本周末的慕尼黑，当代和未来施密特们和基辛格们将有机会参与可能是现时代最重要的战略讨论：如何防止西方在数字时代落于人后。


Wolfowitz and the World Bank at Bay	陷入困境的沃尔福威茨和世界银行


Will World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz’s troubles finally catalyze real change at the World Bank?	世界银行总裁沃尔福威茨的困局是否会最终引发该行真正的变革呢？


Will there finally be an end to the archaic practice by which the President of the United States unilaterally appoints the head of the world’s most important development agency?	是否会最终废止古老的做法，也就是由美国总统单方面指定全世界最为重要的发展机构的领导人呢？


Facing an extraordinary rebuke from the Bank’s ministerial oversight committee and open revolt from his professional staff, Wolfowitz has faint hope of limping through the last three years of his term.	沃尔福威茨现在面临着世界银行部长监督委员会的指责以及该行员工的公开反叛，能够苟延渡过最后三年任期的机会渺茫。


The immediate uproar is over the exceedingly generous pay and promotion package that Wolfowitz awarded in 2005 to his girlfriend as compensation for leaving the Bank to pave the way for his arrival.	造成众怒的直接原因是沃尔福威茨在2005年提拔其女友以及极为大度的加薪以便其离开世界银行来为沃尔福威茨就任铺平道路。


At a time when the Bank has been emphasizing high governance standards as the key to development, the recent revelation of that arrangement’s details have dealt a serious blow to the Bank’s credibility.	在世界银行强调较高的管理标准作为发展的关键的时候，这一项安排的细节曝光对该行的信誉度是一个沉重的打击。


But even if Wolfowitz is eventually forced to resign, nothing will be gained if US President George W. Bush is allowed summarily to choose his replacement, as US Presidents have been doing ever since the Bank was founded after World War II.	但是，即使沃尔福威茨最终被迫辞职，如果美国总统布什像二战后世界银行成立以来的历届总统那样可以随意选择其接班人，那么，这还是于事无补。


Instead, the Bank’s head should be chosen in an open and transparent process that aims to select the best-qualified candidate, whether from the US, Europe, or the developing world.	相反，世界银行的领导人应当在一个公开和透明的程序中做出选择，这一程序的目的在于挑选最为称职的候选人，而无论其来自美国、欧洲抑或是发展中世界。


Indeed, a big part of Wolfowitz’s weakness today is the way he came to his job, as an in-your-face appointment from a US administration weak at international cooperation.	确实，沃尔福威茨现在的弱点的很大一部分是其任职的方式，也就是在由一个在国际合作上无所作为的美国政府专横地加以任命。


The World Bank is a development finance institution.	世界银行是一个发展金融组织。


But Wolfowitz’s background at the US State and Defense Departments gave him no real expertise or experience in either area.	但是沃尔福威茨在美国国务院和国防部的背景并不给他在任何一个领域提供实际的专长和经验。


Instead, his claim to fame was his role as architect of America’s failed war in Iraq.	相反，其名声在外之处却是作为美国失败的伊拉克战争的设计师角色。


By all accounts, Wolfowitz is brilliant, but it seems inconceivable that an open, transparent, and multilateral selection process would have chosen him to head the World Bank.	总体而言，沃尔福威茨是出众的，但是，一个公开、透明以及多边遴选程序挑选他领导世界银行是难以想象的。


I reach this conclusion even though I am sympathetic to the Bush administration’s desire to catalyze change at the Bank.	尽管我同情布什政府促进世界银行变革的愿望，但是我还是得出这一结论。


I have long advocated shifting the Bank’s center of gravity from lending to outright grants, a policy that the Bush administration strongly endorses.	我长久以来主张将该行的重心从贷款转移到直接赠款之上，布什政府强烈支持这一政策。


But choosing someone with no obvious background or experience in economic development was not the way to make progress on this front.	但是挑选某一没有明显经济发展背景或经验的人并不是在这一领域取得进展的途径。


A more open selection process, indeed, would have zoomed in on the fact that Wolfowitz’s girlfriend worked at the Bank.	确实，更为公开的遴选程序将会突出沃尔福威茨的女友在该行供职这一事实。


This may seem a trivial issue, but it is not, given the Bank’s strong policies to protect against nepotism.	这看似小事，但是鉴于世界银行严格的防止裙带关系政策，实则不然。


If Wolfowitz were otherwise overwhelmingly the most qualified candidate, the selection committee may have found a way to finesse the issue, openly and transparently.	如果沃尔福威茨是一个毫无争议、最为合格的候选人，那么，挑选委员会就可以公开和透明地找到妥善处理此事的办法。


But, given his questionable fit for the job in the first place, the girlfriend issue might have been disqualifying.	但是，由于他首先是否适宜担任此职就令人质疑，女友问题就可能令其不适宜这一职务了。


Why does the world meekly go along with the status quo and let the US dictate the Bank’s top position?	为何世界顺从当前的局面并且让美国独裁世界银行的最高职务呢？


It is a sorry tale of poor global governance.	这是一个不幸的全球管理不善事件。


Europe does not get in America’s way because it wants to maintain Europe’s equally out-dated privilege of appointing the head of the International Monetary Fund, the Bank’s sister institution.	欧洲并不想干涉美国，因为它想要维持欧洲所有的、同样也是过时的任命世界银行姊妹组织国际货币基金组织总裁的特权。


Asia has little choice but to defer to the US and Europe’s shenanigans because it is grossly under-represented in both organizations.	亚洲除了听从美国和欧洲的把戏之外选择不多，因为在这两个组织内它的代表权不够。


As for Africa, its leaders are loath to do or say anything that might interrupt the flow of World Bank largesse.	至于非洲，其领导人们不愿做或者说任何可能打断世界银行施舍的事情。


Many people, including myself, have long complained about the leadership selection process at the World Bank and the IMF.	包括我本人在内的许多人一直抱怨世界银行和国际货币基金组织的领导人遴选过程。


How can the Bank and the Fund continue to go around lecturing developing economies on good governance and transparency but fail to allow change in their own houses?	世界银行和国际货币基金组织如何能够继续向发展中经济体讲授良好管理和透明而又不在其自身机构中允许改革呢？


Now and again, both organizations pay lip service to the issue.	现在，两个组织都是再一次对这一问题文过饰非。


But so far, they have exhibited no real desire for change.	但是目前为止，它们还没有表现出变革的欲望。


To be fair, the IMF’s leadership is making a determined effort to give dynamic emerging economies, particularly in Asia, a bigger say in Fund governance.	公平而言，国际货币基金组织的领导层正在做出坚定的努力来给充满活力的新兴经济体，特别是亚洲在该组织管理中更大的发言权。


If carried far enough, this process would ultimately catalyze the necessary changes.	如果进行的足够多的话，这一进程将最终促进引发必要的变革。


Unfortunately, the IMF’s rebalancing efforts are proceeding at a glacial pace.	不幸的是，国际货币基金组织的重心平衡的努力进展过于缓慢。


At the World Bank, nothing seems to be happening at all.	在世界银行，好像根本就无动于衷。


Perhaps when Gordon Brown becomes the UK’s next prime minister, he will be able to convince the G7 group of rich countries to lead the charge for change.	可能当布朗成为英国下任首相之际，他将会能够说服七国集团率先变革。


As head of the Fund’s ministerial oversight committee, Brown understands the issues as well as anyone.	作为国际货币基金组织部长监督委员会主席，布朗与其他人一样理解这些问题。


Or perhaps the Wolfowitz debacle will prove to be the catalyst.	或许，沃尔福威茨的惨败会成为变革因素。


Maybe at last, the next World Bank or IMF president will come from outside their usual domains.	可能最终下一任国际货币基金组织或者世界银行的总裁会来自通常的领地以外。


There are plenty of great potential non-American candidates.	有许多不错的非美国籍的候选人。


South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel has ably served as head of the World Bank’s oversight committee and would make a brilliant World Bank president.	南非财政部长曼努埃尔出色地担任了世界银行监督委员会的主席，可以成为该行杰出的总裁。


And it still could be a qualified American.	当然也会有合格的美国人选。


What about Bill Clinton?	克林顿如何？


One way or the other, the Bank and the IMF leadership selection process urgently needs to be revamped.	不管怎样，世界银行和国际货币基金组织的领导层遴选进程急需改革。


What the Wolfowitz debacle tells us most clearly is that the time for patience with the status quo is over.	沃尔福威茨惨败告诉我们最为清楚的是，对现状的耐心已经结束了。


Women and Development	女性和发展


COPENHAGEN – A girl born in South Asia or sub-Saharan Africa faces a cruel double burden.	哥本哈根—一个出生在南亚和撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地区的女童面临着残酷的双重负担。


She will grow up in a region beset by poverty, disease, war or famine.	她将会在一个充满贫穷、疾病、战争或饥荒的地区成长。


She will also confront these challenges with the added disadvantage of being female.	她还要带着身为女性的弱势来面对这些挑战。


Although more attention is being given to gender issues, inequality persists in every culture, country, and continent.	虽然性别问题已经被给予了更多的关注，但不平等现象仍然在各个文化、国家和大陆存在着。


A new study for the Copenhagen Consensus project shows that eliminating this disparity is an investment with high payoffs.	一项关于哥本哈根共识项目的新近研究表明消除这些不平等是一项高回报的投资。


Despite global interest in education for all, many girls in poor countries continue to be denied basic education; right from the start, they are disadvantaged.	尽管有全球在普及教育方面的努力，但许多贫穷国家的女童仍然被剥夺了基本教育的权利； 从一开始，她们就是弱势群体。


Three in five illiterate children in the world are girls.	世界上文盲儿童中的五分之三是女童。


Particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, cultural norms and economic hardships stop parents from sending their daughters to school or from keeping them in school for as long as they enroll their sons.	特别是在南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲地区，文化传统和经济艰辛阻止了父母让他们的女儿上学，或让她们在学校里接受与儿子们同等时间的教育。


This unequal investment is neither equitable nor efficient.	这种不平等的投资既不公平又很低效。


An obvious solution is to build more schools in places where girls and boys must be educated separately.	一种显而易见的解决方案就是在男女不能同校的地方建立更多的学校。


In poor Muslim countries like Pakistan, Yemen, and Morocco, single-sex schooling is the norm, but many rural areas can afford only one public school, which is usually set aside for boys.	在许多贫穷的穆斯林国家，如巴基斯坦、也门和摩洛哥，单一性别学校是一种传统，但许多农村地区只能负担一所公立学校，而这所学校往往是针对男童的。


In theory, about half of the education gap in these areas could be closed by building girls’ schools.	从理论上讲，通过建立女子学校，这些地区的男女入学差距可以被缩小近一半。


Elsewhere, supply constraints are not the problem.	在其他地方，物力制约不是问题。


Instead, policymakers must find ways to strengthen the incentives for parents to send their daughters to school.	政策制定者们必须想办法强化让父母们将女儿送去读书的激励机制。


In countries where the family’s cost of schooling girls is lowered either by a no-fee policy or by a stipend for girls who enroll in school, girls’ enrollment rate increases.	在那些降低了家庭让女童接受教育的成本的国家（不论是通过免学费还是为女童入学提供补贴），女童的入学率都增加了。


The experiences of these few countries lead us to propose a system whereby mothers are paid if their school-age daughters attend school regularly from the 3rd to the 9th grade. This would increase girls’ enrollment and also put money into women’s hands – important because studies show that money given to women is more likely to provide positive nutritional and health benefits for their children than money given to men.	这几个国家的经验让我们提议建立这样的一个体系：如果学龄的女儿们从三年级到九年级正常上学，那么她们的母亲将得到报酬，既增加女童的入学率又增加女性的收入—这是非常重要的，因为研究显示相较于男性，女性更会将得到的资助用于向她们的子女提供积极的营养和健康福利。


It also provides the women with greater bargaining power in their own households.	这也使女性在自己的家庭中更有发言权。


The annual cost per pupil would be $32.	每一个小学生一年的教育成本是32美元。


Covering every eligible girl in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia for a year would cost $6 billion.	让撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚的所有适龄女童接受教育的年成本是60亿美元。


Benefits from increased future wages and the reduction in health-care use would be between three and 26 times higher.	而从未来薪资增加和医疗费用降低中获得的收益要（比这成本）高3到26倍。


Pregnancy is one of the most vulnerable times for poor women; 99% of the 529,000 women who die annually from pregnancy-related complications live in developing countries.	妊娠期是贫穷妇女最为脆弱的时期之一； 每年死于与妊娠有关的并发症的529000名妇女中，有99%都在发展中国家。


Severe malnutrition and the absence of prenatal care during pregnancy put both mother and child at serious risk.	严重的营养不良和妊娠期的产前护理缺失让母亲和小孩面临严重的风险。


Spending $3.9 billion on family planning and maternal health initiatives, such as provision of emergency contraception in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, could avert 1.4 million infant deaths and 142,000 pregnancy-related deaths in women.	在计划生育和妇科医疗方面（如在撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚地区提供紧急避孕服务）支出39亿美元，可以避免140万婴儿死亡和142000桩与妊娠相关的妇女死亡。


Making reproductive services available to women who cannot afford to pay their way can help prevent these deaths.	向经济上无力负担的女性提供生殖服务有助于避免这些死亡。


But such services must not shy away from promoting and providing modern contraceptive methods to avoid unwanted pregnancies.	但这些服务决不能羞于推广和提供现代避孕方法，从而避免意外怀孕。


Nearly 20% of women in developing countries report that they would like to stop having more children but are not using any form of contraception or family planning, possibly because reproductive services are not available.	发展中国家近20%的妇女表示不愿再生育更多的小孩，但却没有采用任何的避孕或计划生育措施。 这可能是因为生殖服务缺位。


For adolescent girls, early marriage or an unwanted pregnancy typically curtails schooling.	对青春期女童而言，早婚和意外怀孕通常会打断她们的教育。


Delaying marriage and childbearing allows them to gain more education and perhaps more earning opportunities, as well as improved health, education, and labor market success for their future children – benefits worth ten times more than the cost of providing reproductive services.	推迟结婚和生育能让她们获得更多的教育、更多的收入机会以及为他们未来的子女获得更好的医疗、教育和就业市场的成功—这样的收益是生殖服务成本的十倍。


Other tools, aside from schooling, can help women improve their income-earning ability.	除了学校教育之外的其它工具能够帮助女性提高她们创收的能力。


Microfinance institutions, such as Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank, play a vital role in allowing self-employed women to build profitable businesses.	微型金融机构，如孟加拉国的Grameen银行，在让从事自由职业的妇女创业赢利方面发挥了关键作用。


Small loans empower women by giving them more control over household assets and resources, more autonomy and decision-making power, and greater access to participation in public life.	小额贷款通过给予女性对家庭资产和资源更多控制权、更多自主和决策权以及更多参与公共生活的机会，提升了她们的权利。


Women are more likely than men to meet regular repayments and to spend their earnings on children’s health and education.	女性比男性更可能按时还款并将她们的收入用于子女的健康和教育。


Policymakers should continue to facilitate the rollout of microfinance programs.	政策制定者们应该继续为微型金融项目的实施提供方便。


Studies show that each dollar loaned by a microfinance institution increases household expenditure by almost 10% in the first year, and that the benefits will continue for another 30 years.	研究表明微型金融机构贷出的每一美元在第一年会使家庭支出增加10%，而且这种收益会持续30年。


Benefits are estimated to end up about six times higher than the costs.	据估计总收益将比成本高6倍。


Though women have the right to vote in almost every country, gender inequalities in political representation remain large.	虽然在几乎所有的国家女性都获得了选举权，但在政治代表上的性别不平等仍然严重。


Governments should consider gender quotas at the local level of politics.	政府应该考虑地方政治中的性别配额。


Greater female representation may not necessarily lead to more emphasis on “female” policy priorities, but in India, village councils with gender quotas for village chiefs have higher levels of safe drinking water, better immunization coverage and roads, and less bribery.	更高的女性代表率不一定产生对“女性”政策优先的重视，但在印度，对村民委员会的委员有性别配额要求的地方，饮用水安全程度更高、疫苗接种率更高、路况更好，贿赂的情况也更少。


There may be some losses from electing women because they tend to have less political experience than men, but the record in India suggests that if it took 20 years to establish a 30% share of women in local positions in other countries, the benefits would be at least double the costs of achieving this.	女性当选可能会有一些缺憾，因为她们相较于男性政治经验往往不足。 但从印度的经验来看，如果花20年的时间使其他国家的地方官员中女性的比例达到30%，那么其产生的收益至少是实现这一目标所耗成本的两倍。


Being a woman need not and should not be among the greatest challenges of life.	身为女性不需要也不应该成为生活中最大的挑战之一。


Women for Integration	妇女的融合作用


COPENHAGEN – The past decade has proven again and again that empowering women worldwide holds the key to solving many seemingly intractable issues that have otherwise stymied policymakers. Poverty in the developing world seemed ineradicable until micro-lenders saw millions of low-income, destitute women as potential entrepreneurs.	发自哥本哈根——在过去十几年中，事实已经不断地证明全世界那些被赋予权力的女性可以令那些困扰政策制定者的棘手难题迎刃而解：发展中国家的贫困问题看似无法根治，直到小额贷款者将数百万低收入的贫苦女性视为潜在的创业者就有了转机。


Involving African women in decision-making about crop production turns out to enable environmentally sustainable farming practices.	而将非洲女性纳入到农业政策制定过程中的举措则令到农业的环境可持续发展成为现实。


Runaway population growth becomes controllable when women have access to literacy and business opportunities as well as to contraception.	原本失控的人口增长率在妇女得到受教育权和经商权，以及学会避孕之后也变得有章法了。


Could the tensions and conflicts surrounding the issue of immigration in Europe be yet another issue for which the empowerment of women holds a solution?	那么围绕着欧洲移民问题所造成一系列紧张和冲突局面是否也能通过这些被赋予权力的女性来解决呢？


In a recent visit to Copenhagen to commemorate International Women’s Day, I took part in many conversations that duplicate others throughout Europe: citizens from across the political spectrum were struggling with the issue of non-European immigration and the cultural tensions that have ensued.	最近在赴哥本哈根庆祝国际妇女节的时候，我参加了许多场跟欧洲其他地方一模一样的对话：所有欧洲人，不管持有不同政治立场的，都纠缠于非欧洲移民以及随之而来的文化冲突问题。


What does it mean to be Danish, German, or French in the presence of these millions of newcomers, most of whom come from non-democratic societies?	许多丹麦人，德国人和法国人根本不明白这数百万新移民究竟意味着什么，更何况其中绝大多数移民甚至来自于非民主国家！


Some of this anxiety is pure racism; but some is not.	其中有些担忧纯粹是民族主义的； 有些则不是。


What would “integration” mean, and how is it achieved without the loss of cherished civil-society values?	“融合”这个词究竟该如何解读，又该如何在不伤及市民社会价值理念的情况下达致融合？


These are not necessarily xenophobic questions: a post-enlightenment civil society, with a free press and due process, is a precious thing, and those values should not be sacrificed to politically correct moral relativism.	这可不仅仅是排不排外的问题：一个拥有新闻自由和法定程序的，后文明时代的市民社会是非常宝贵的财富，而这些价值观不应该被那些官员们只顾政治正确的道德相对主义而遭到抹杀。


This issue has been given new urgency by the arrests in Ireland of alleged jihadists from several countries who are accused of plotting to murder a Swedish cartoonist who drew an image of the prophet Mohammed as a dog.	在爱尔兰逮捕了多位试图谋杀一名将先知默罕默德描绘成一条狗的瑞典卡通画家的所谓圣战者之后，这个问题变得更加紧迫了。


Across Europe, the discussions are growing more intense as anti-immigration platforms gain supporters in otherwise liberal countries, from Germany to France to traditionally inclusive and tolerant Denmark itself.	有关这个问题的讨论在全欧洲都日趋激烈，反移民政党在其他自由主义国家都获得了更多的支持，从德国，法国，一直到传统上比较平等包容的丹麦。


Then I witnessed the prototype of a true solution.	但随后我看见了一个真正解决方案的雏形。


I met Elisabeth Møller Jensen, the director of KVINFO, “the Danish center for information on gender, equality and ethnicity” – an extraordinary organization funded by Denmark’s Ministry of Culture.	我碰到了丹麦性别，平等和种族信息中心的主管伊丽莎白·穆勒·詹森，她所在的是个受丹麦文化部资助而且非同寻常的机构。


One of its many innovative programs is already showing results in terms of genuinely integrating immigrant families into Danish society.	而该中心的其中一个创新性项目则已经在移民家庭真正融入丹麦社会方面取得了成果。


By addressing immigrant women – and by viewing them as potential leaders, rather than as quiescent potential maids or service workers – KVINFO is enabling their families to witness the benefits of an open civil society in their own lives.	通过把女性移民视为潜在的领导者——而不是沉默的候补保姆和服务员——中心使得她们的家庭可以亲身见证一个开放社会所带来的好处。


KVINFO began a “mentor network” aimed at immigrant and refugee women in 2002.	在2002年，中心启动了一个专门针对女性移民和难民的“顾问网络”。


By 2010, it had 5,000 participants, had won awards and international acclaim for best integrative practices, and is being replicated throughout Denmark – and observers are exploring programs or partnerships modeled upon it in Canada, Spain, Portugal, and Norway.	时至今日，这个网络已经有5000名参与者，并在融合实践中赢得了奖项和国际声誉，并在丹麦全国推广——而参观过这个项目的人又将其模式复制到加拿大，西班牙，葡萄牙和挪威。


The program pairs refugee and immigrant women in a one-to-one mentoring relationship with women who are established leaders at all levels of Danish society.	而这个项目的做法就是让女性移民和难民和丹麦社会中的各级女性领袖结成“一对一”的顾问关系。


The pairing is not cursory.	这个配对可不是随便安排的。


A careful matchmaking process unites the interests and goals of the women on both sides, and already has paid amazing dividends.	一个精心设计的配对程序将双方的兴趣和目标结合起来，并结出了丰硕的成果。


Women who were journalists, engineers, or scientists in their countries of origin – and who could not get jobs as checkout cashiers in Denmark – have been paired with Danish counterparts and are now back in school, or working in research.	那些在原住国身为记者，工程师和科学家，却在丹麦连个超市收银员都当不上的妇女和丹麦当地的女性同行结成一对，得以回到学校或者投身研究工作之中。


But even women who arrive with no higher education or professional skills create an “action plan.”	而那些没有高学历或者专业技术的女性也制定了一个“行动方案”。


They learn from their mentors what options there are, how to proceed, and what to do to reach their objectives.	她们从自己的结对顾问那里学到了如何选择，如何运作以及如何行动去实现自身目标。


As they enter the workforce, their language skills improve, their household income soars, and their children see firsthand a woman in a respected, economically valued role.	随着她们投入到工作当中，她们的语言能力得到提高，家庭收入增加，而她们的孩子则亲眼看到了一个有尊严，有经济能力的女性。


Their loved ones thus learn how to thrive in a European context – occasionally coming to KVINFO events and benefiting from their mothers’ expanding network of contacts.	孩子们也因此学到如何在欧洲的文化背景下取得成功——偶尔还能来参加中心的活动并从母亲不断扩大的社会联系网中获益。


So, rather than feeling exploited and condemned indefinitely to the fringes of a Northern European society – and thus vulnerable to the stirrings of demagogues and extremists – these women’s children grow up fully familiar with Danish civil society, well informed about higher education and professional opportunities, and hopeful rather than cynical.	因此，这些妇女的后代就不会在一个北欧国家的社会边缘中感到无尽的剥夺和不幸，并因此易于受到煽动者和极端分子的蛊惑，而是在对丹麦市民社会的充分理解中成长，被赋予更高的教育水平和职业机会，对生活充满希望而不是愤世嫉俗。


By empowering women, the whole family is lifted up and, in a supportive rather than a colonizing way, “Europeanized” in the best sense.	通过这些被赋予权力的妇女，整个家庭都通过一个支持性而不是殖民式的方式得到提升，用最好的方式实现了“欧洲化”。


I am often struck by the way many Europeans use arms-length euphemisms when talking about immigrants: they want immigrants to feel “welcome” or “comfortable.” I always wonder, “But do you want them to feel French, or German, or Norwegian?”	我常常惊讶于许多欧洲人在谈论移民时喜欢用一些特别冗长委婉的词汇：他们希望移民能感觉到“受欢迎”和“舒适”，我一直在想：你为什么不让他们感觉特法国，特德国，或者特挪威呢？


To be fully integrated, Muslim and other newcomers to European countries must be welcomed not as perpetual visitors – even if, ideally, as nicely treated visitors – but rather as family members, as the American model does (or aspires to do).	为了实现完全融合，穆斯林和其他欧洲各国的新移民不应被被视为“永久性访客”（甚至理想化地视为受到良好照顾的访客），而应该像美国模式（或努力追求的）那样被视为家庭的真正成员。


As Møller Jensen put it, “I want these children to feel Danish .”	正如穆勒·詹森所说：“我希望这些孩子都觉得特丹麦”。


These young people and Denmark itself will benefit, as this “KVINFO generation” grows up with a genuine stake in Danish civil society, and seeing the world as Danes, not as guests.	随着“中心一代”在一个纯正丹麦市民社会的基础上成长，并以丹麦人而不是外来人的视角来看待这个世界，获益的将不不止是他们自己，还有这个国家。


Arab Women’s Unfinished Revolution	阿拉伯妇女未竟的革命


FEZ – Though women across the Middle East participated actively in the Arab Spring protests that began in late 2010, they remain second-class citizens, even where popular uprisings managed to topple autocratic regimes.	费斯—尽管中东地区的妇女积极地参与了2010年末开始的阿拉伯之春起义，但她们仍是二等公民，即便在群众起义推翻了独裁统治的地方也是如此。


Indeed, the Islamist governments now in power in several countries seem more determined than the despots that they replaced to keep women out of politics.	事实上，如今，不少国家掌权的伊斯兰政府比被他们取代的暴君更热衷于将妇女排挤在政坛之外。


In conducting interviews with women in the region, I am struck by their overall pessimism.	在采访该地区妇女的过程中，我被她们的悲观情绪深深地震惊了。


They fear the loss of their rights.	她们担心丧失权利。


They see economic disintegration all around them, raising the possibility of a further increase in violence.	她们认为经济崩溃随处可见，这让暴力进一步升级的可能性大大增加。


As social bonds fray, they feel increasingly vulnerable.	随着社会契约的腐蚀，她们感到越来越无助。


More than once, I heard them express the view that things were better before the revolutions.	我不止一次听她们表示目前的状况还不如革命之前。


Female representation in parliaments and government cabinets after the Arab Spring has been either absent or meager, and women activists worry that Islamist parties will implement reactionary policies that discriminate on the basis of gender.	阿拉伯之春后，国会和政府内阁中的女性代表要么不存在，要么无足轻重，妇女活动家担心伊斯兰政党会采取性别歧视的反动政策。


In Egypt, for example, the Freedom and Justice Party, which dominates the parliament, claims that a woman cannot become President.	比如，在埃及，占据议会多数的自由公正党（Freedom and Justice Party）宣布不能由女性出任总统。


Egyptian women were heavily represented in the protests that brought down former President Hosni Mubarak’s regime in 2011, but they have been largely excluded from any official decision-making role ever since.	在2011年推翻前总统穆巴拉克的起义中，妇女居功至伟，但在此后的所有决策过程中都鲜有女性身影出现。


In Morocco, while there were eightwomen in the previous cabinet, today there is only one in the Islamist-led government.	在摩洛哥，上任内阁中有八名妇女，而在今天的伊斯兰政府中只剩下一名。


In January, the Islamist-dominated parliament adopted a decree lowering the age of marriage for girls from 18 to 16, a major setback.	1月，伊斯兰教徒占多数的议会采纳了一项法令，将女孩适婚年龄从18岁降至16岁，这是一次大倒退。


Moroccan feminists have protested vigorously, but to no avail.	摩洛哥女性强烈抗议，但完全无用。


Parliamentary representation for women has also taken a hit.	议会中的妇女代表也遭受了打击。


Women hold less than 1% of seats in the current Egyptian parliament; previously, they held 12%.	目前埃及议会的妇女代表数量不到1%； 此前曾达到过12%。


In Libya, a first draft of the electoral law reserved 10% of seats in the constituent assembly for women, but the quota was later abandoned.	在利比亚，选举法第一草案为妇女保留了10%的制宪大会议席，但这一配额后来被取消了。


In Tunisia, the election in 2011 brought 49 women into the 217-seat Constituent Assembly.	在突尼斯，2011年的选举将49名妇女选入了217人的制宪大会。


But 42 of these women are members of Ennahda, which regards Sharia (Islamic law) as the source of legislation.	但其中42人是复兴运动党（Ennahda）成员，该党认为伊斯兰教法才是合法性的源泉。


Long-time Tunisian activists fear that Ennahda, which dominates the assembly, will use the presence of women MPs to restrict women’s rights.	突尼斯的长期活动家担心在制宪大会占多数的社会运动党将利用妇女议员阻挠妇女权利。


The recent assassination of the secular Tunisian opposition leader Chokri Belaid has raised the stakes for women there.	最近发生的行刺突尼斯世俗反对派领袖贝莱德（Chokri Belaid）事件让人担心该国妇女的命运。


Belaid was a voice on behalf of women’s rights, and the threat of increased political violence will focus on those who advocate secular equality for all Tunisians, including women.	贝莱德是妇女权利的拥护者，政治暴力抬头的威胁将集中在支持所有突尼斯人（包括妇女在内）世俗平等的人头上。


Unfortunately, conservative forces in the Arab world repeatedly turn against women when political unrest spreads.	不幸的是，在政治动荡蔓延时，阿拉伯世界的保守势力一再反对妇女。


In Bahrain, several women protesters have been arrested and tortured.	在巴林，不少妇女示威者被逮捕并遭受严刑拷打。


In Yemen, the authorities call on male relatives to “tame” their women.	在也门，当局要求男性亲属“管教好”家中的女人。


In Tunisia, the most Westernized of the Arab countries, women have been attacked at universities and schools, and are being forced to wear the hijab.	在最西方化的阿拉伯国家突尼斯，大学和学校中的女性频频遭袭，并被迫戴上面纱。


A woman who was allegedly raped by two policemen in September 2012 was charged with public indecency when she filed a complaint.	一名据称于2012年9月被两名警察强奸的妇女在提起申诉时被指公开猥亵。


Likewise, in Egypt, women protesters face greater scrutiny than men.	类似地，在埃及，女性示威者面临着比男性更严格的审查。


Those arrested by the military during the anti-Mubarak protests were subjected to virginity tests as a form of intimidation.	在反穆巴拉克起义期间被捕的女性需要接受贞洁测试，以此作为恐吓手段。


Across the Middle East, Islamist militias have harassed, arrested, raped, and tortured women pro-democracy activists.	在整个中东，伊斯兰军队骚扰、逮捕、强奸和虐待女性民主活动者。


The model of Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, which imposed second-class citizenship on women, is frequently cited as a threat in Arab countries now ruled by Islamist parties.	1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命的模式——将妇女视为二等公民——被频繁视为如今由伊斯兰党派执政的阿拉伯国家的一大威胁。


These countries are at a crossroads.	这些国家都面临抉择。


Women make up half of the Middle East’s population, and any hope of political and economic development must account for that fact.	妇女占据中东人口的一半，任何政治和经济发展希望都必须考虑到这一事实。


Organizations like the United Nations Development Program have repeatedly issued reports demonstrating the connection between economic decline and oppression of women.	联合国发展计划署等组织一再发布报告，说明经济衰落和压抑女性之间存在��联。


Simply put, the Arab countries will not succeed unless women are fully integrated into political and economic life.	一言以蔽之，除非妇女充分融入政治和经济生活，否则阿拉伯国家不可能获得成功。


In her Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech in 2011, Yemeni political activist Tawakkol Karman, made the point clearly: “The solution to women’s issues can only be achieved in a free and democratic society in which human energy is liberated, the energy of both women and men together.”	在2011年诺贝尔和平奖获奖演说中，也门整治活动价卡尔曼（Tawakkol Karman）明确指出：“妇女问题的解决方案只有在民主社会中才能达成。 在民主社会中，人类能量得到了解放，女人和男人的能量都得到了解放。


Middle Eastern countries should protect and consolidate women’s rights as a way to reinforce democratic ideas and habits.	中东国家应该保护和巩固妇女权利，以此作为强化民主思想和习惯的方式。


They must institute the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international laws and agreements in order to eradicate gender-based discrimination and violence.	它们必须将《世界人权宣言》和其他国际法和协定制度化，以此消灭性别歧视和暴力。


The hope for women’s progress is really a hope for a decent society in which development for all is possible.	妇女进步的希望就是美好社会的希望，就是一切发展皆有可能的希望。


Women on Top?	女子掌权?


What will G-8 summit meetings be like when American President Hillary Clinton and French President Ségolène Royal join German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a formidable triangle of women’s power?	如果美国总统希拉里·克林顿，法国总统塞格琳·罗雅尔以及德国总理默克尔这样一个令人生畏的女性领导铁三角聚首在八国峰会上会是怎样一种景象？


The scenario is not altogether unlikely.	这种情况的出现并不是完全不可能的。


Indeed, in the United States and France, there are even alternative female candidates for the presidency (Condoleezza Rice in America, Michelle Alliot-Marie in France).	事实上，在美国和法国，甚至还有另外一些女性的总统候选人，美国有赖斯，法国有阿里奥马里 。


Will this mean a new style of both domestic politics and international relations?	这会不会意味着国内政治和国际关系的一种新模式呢？


The answer is not obvious.	答案是并不明显。


After all, some women have long had the strength and the will to make it to the top. Think of Indira Gandhi, Golda Meir, or Margaret Thatcher.	不管怎样，一些女人早就拥有了实力以及问鼎的意志力，比如英迪拉·甘地，梅厄或者撒切尔夫人。


All three were powerful prime ministers of their countries, though perhaps not the epitome of what might be regarded as feminine values.	这三个人都成了她们国家强有力的总理，尽管这也许不能被看作是女权主义价值的一个缩影。


They all outdid men at their own game and had little time for what came to be called feminism.	她们在她们各自的竞赛中都战胜了男人，但是却很少有时间去关注所谓的争取女权运动。


Indeed, another trend may be more significant as far as political leadership is concerned.	毫无疑问，世界上许多地方政治领导的模式正在发生转变。


When it comes to the formation of governments, women have managed to break out of the prison of their traditional domains, such as education and social affairs.	当政府组建时，妇女已经能够打破其传统领域，例如教育和社会事务的束缚。


Foreign policy in particular has become a female aspiration.	特别是，外交已经成为女性的向往。


Both the US and the European Union have women leading their foreign offices; so do half a dozen EU countries, including Britain.	美国和欧盟都是由妇女来掌管外交； 其他众多欧盟国家也是如此，包括英国。


Has this changed the style, indeed, the substance of foreign policy?	这是否改变了外交的风格，还是外交的实质？


Undoubtedly, a shift in policy styles is occurring in many parts of the world.	毫无疑问，在世界许多地方正在发生政策风格的转变。


In a word, it appears that the Reagan-Thatcher period is over.	简单地说，看上去里根-撒切尔的时代已经过去了。


While opponents of globalization still fight “neo-liberal” policies, political discourse has taken a new turn.	当全球化的反对者还在与“新自由主义”的政策抗争之时，政治演讲的口气已经转向了一个新的方向。


Words like “justice” are back in fashion; there is concern about globalization’s losers and the “underclass.”	像“公正”这样的词汇有重新成为了时尚； 而对于全球化的失败者以及“下层社会”的人也有了更多的关切。


Likewise, the leader of Britain’s Conservatives, David Cameron, startled more old-fashioned supporters of his party by saying that people released from prison “need, above all, love.”	同样地，英国保守党领袖卡梅隆所谓从监狱里释放出来的人“最需要的是爱”的说法震动了他的党内更为古派的支持者。


When Prime Minister Tony Blair described the next election as a fistfight in which the “flyweight” Cameron would be carried out and the “heavyweight” Brown victorious after a short bout, he got much applause from his supporters in the House of Commons, but the remark went down badly with voters.	当布莱尔首相把下一次大选描述为一场拳击比赛，“轻量级”的卡梅隆会在一个很短的回合后就被“重量级”的布朗轻松击败，他博得了他在下院的支持者巨大的欢呼，然而这种说法并没有被选民所接受。


Somehow, people prefer “softer” values than were prevalent in the last two decades.	就某种程度上讲，人们现在比过去二十年来更倾向于“软”价值。


Yet it is not the leading women who above all represent these values.	然而并不是那些处于领导地位的女性最主要地代表了这些价值。


Merkel may have been softened by having to preside over a grand coalition, but her original stance was more of the Reagan-Thatcher variety.	默克尔也许在建立一个大联合政府时会有所软化，但是她最初的立场更多地是里根-撒切尔类型的。


Yuliya Tymoshenko was clearly the most stouthearted among the leaders of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, and no one has ever described Hillary Clinton as particularly “soft.”	季莫申科显然是乌克兰橙色革命的领导人中最勇敢的一位，同样从来没有人把希拉里·克林顿描述为一个特别“软”的人。


On the contrary, her possible Republican opponent in 2009, Senator John McCain, while a war hero, is also a man who represents to many Americans the new soft values.	恰恰相反，可能在2009年成为她的共和党对手的参议员麦凯恩作为一个战争英雄，在许多美国人眼里却代表了新的软价值。


Merkel had a difficult time in the run-up to her recent party conference, because Jürgen Rüttgers, the minister-president of the largest German state, North-Rhine Westphalia, reminded the Christian Democrats of their historical support for strong social-welfare policies.	默克尔在她前一次的党代会上走上前台也是颇费了一番周折，因为德国最大的州北莱茵-威斯特法伦州的州长约尔根·吕特格尔斯提醒基督教民主党注意他们在历史上一贯支持强有力的社会福利政策。


Only Royal may be said to represent softer lines against the hard-liner of the governing party, Nicolas Sarkozy.	只有罗耶尔相对于执政党的代表萨尔科齐的强硬路线而言可能代表了软的价值。


So, have women at or near the top made no real difference to politics?	那么，女性当权真的在政治上没有带来任何变化吗？


Whatever change they have brought has not been obvious.	至少这种变化并不明显。


In a sense, women’s advance is simply the normal consequence of the gradual move to effective equality of opportunity that began in the 1960’s.	某种程度上讲，女性所取得的进展只不过是二十世纪六十年代慢慢开始形成的给予男性和女性平等机会的运动的一个正常结果。


It took decades to become real, and there are still countries that have a long way to go.	这个目标花了几十年时间才变成现实，但是依然还有一些国家距离实现这一目标还有很长的道路要走。


Despite Tymoshenko’s leading role in Ukraine, it would be surprising to see Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced by a woman, and, while there is a female vice-president in China, there is no sign of a woman becoming Japanese prime minister soon.	尽管季莫申科在乌克兰处于领导角色，但是如果俄罗斯总统普京被一名女性所取代的话那会令人非常惊讶，而尽管中国有一个女性的副总理，但是没有迹象表明日本会很快出现一名女首相。


Even so, in many parts of the world, women have made considerable headway on the path to the top.	尽管如此，在世界上许多地方，女性在走向权力顶峰的路上已经取得了巨大的进步。


Not infrequently this has been helped by explicit policies.	明确的政策在这其中常常帮了很大的忙。


David Cameron prides himself on a successful campaign to make 40% of all Conservative parliamentary candidates in Britain are women.	卡梅隆在一次成功的竞选活动上自豪地称英国40%的保守党议员候选人是女性。


But this is precisely the point.	但是这正是问题所在。


It is not the women at the top who have changed the scene.	并不是处于权力顶峰的女性改变了这一现象。


Rather, it is a more general trend, helped along by open-minded leaders of both sexes, that has changed the political climate in countries.	这更多地是一种整体的趋势，在两种性别的开明的领导人的推动下，改变了许多国家的政治气候。


No one, man or woman, can today aspire to setting the tone of public discourse without recognizing that politics is no longer only a man’s game.	没有一个人，不管是女性还是男性，今天在寻求公开演讲的基调时会不认识到政治已经不再是单单男人的游戏。


In other words, normalization by equal opportunity is itself the change.	换句话说，平等机会的正常化本身就是一种改变。


Whatever the particular values of leading candidates, this is undoubtedly progress.	不管处于领先地位的候选人代表的是哪一种价值观，这毫无疑问就是一种进步。


The Myth of the Women’s Vote	女性选票传说


WASHINGTON, DC – Among the clichés that deserve to be thrown out after the recent presidential election in the United States is the idea of a “women’s vote.”	华盛顿—在应该从最近的美国总统大选中消灭的糟粕中，有一个是“女性选票”的概念。


It may seem surprising that only 54% of the female electorate voted for Hillary Clinton, the first woman nominated for president by a major party.	看起来好像很奇怪，只有54%的女选民把票投给了历史上第一位主要政党总统提名人希拉里·克林顿。


But while gender is a strong marker for how Americans think about certain issues, it is not the best predictor of how they will vote.	然而，尽管性别是美国人看待某些问题的重要标记，但它并非如何投票的最佳指标。


It turns out that female candidates do not face a single gender gap, but rather multiple gender gaps.	看起来，女候选人面临的不是单一性别差距，而是多重性别差距。


To be sure, a superficial look at past election results reveals an enormous and persistent difference between men and women voters overall.	诚然，肤浅地研究过去的选举结果表明，男性和女性选民之间总体而言存在巨大且持久的差异。


According to Pew Research, the last presidential election in which men and women voted the same was the 1976 contest between Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford.	据皮尤研究公司（Pew Research），最近一次男性和女性选民投票结果相同的总统选举时1976年吉米·卡特与杰拉德·福特之间的竞争。


In this year’s election, women favored Clinton by 12 percentage points, and men favored Trump by the same margin.	在今年的选举中，女性以12个百分点的优势更支持克林顿，而男性以同样的优势更支持特朗普。


Men favored George W. Bush by 11 points in 2000, and women favored Obama by 13 points and 11 points in 2008 and 2012, respectively; but until now we have never seen double-digit gaps in both directions simultaneously.	2000年，男性支持小布什的优势为11个百分点，2008年和2012年，女性支持奥巴马的优势分别为13和11个百分点； 但到目前为止，我们从未发现两个方向同时出现两位数差距。


But this still does not mean that the gender gap tells us much as a first-order factor, especially if we consider other gaps among demographic groups.	但这仍然不意味着性别差距可以作为第一等因素，特别是如果我们考虑人群之间的其他差距的话。


If we sort by race or ethnicity, we find that white Americans favored Trump by 21 points, while Hispanics and African-Americans favored Clinton by 36 points and 80 points, respectively.	如果我们用种族或民族分类，就会发现美国白人支持特朗普的优势为21个百分点，而西班牙裔和非洲裔美国人支持克林顿的优势分别为36和80个百分点。


Meanwhile, voters with different education levels were further apart than in any election since 1980.	与此同时，不同教育水平的选民之间的分歧为1980年以来之最。


College-educated voters backed Clinton by a nine-point margin, while people without a college degree backed Trump by an eight-point margin.	具有大学文化的选民以九个百分点的优势支持克林顿，而没有大学文凭的选民支持特朗普的优势为八个百分点。


A New York Times analysis of exit polls found that voters with annual incomes below $50,000 backed Clinton by about a ten-point margin, while voters with incomes above that level split evenly between the two candidates.	《纽约时报》的口民调分析发现，年收入50,000美元以下的选民以十个百分点的优势支持克林顿，而年收入50,000美元以上的选民对两位候选人的支持不分伯仲。


This indicates that, at least in this year’s election, ethnicity and education were much more predictive than income.	这表明，至少在今年的选举中，种族和教育比收入更有预测意义。


As it happens, they were also more predictive than gender.	是的，它们也比性别更具有预测意义。


Ninety-three percent of African-American women and 80% of African-American men voted for Clinton.	百分之九十三的非洲裔女性和80%的非洲裔男性把票投给了克林顿。


But 53% of white women and 63% of white men voted for Trump, while only 43% of white women and 31% of white men voted for Clinton.	但53%的白人女性和63的白人男性支持特朗普，而只有43%的白人女性和31的白人男性把票投给了克林顿。


Similarly, Clinton won the support of white, college-educated women by six points; but she lost white non-college-educated women by 28 points and white non-college-educated men by 49 points.	类似地，克林顿以六个百分点的优势赢得受过大学教育的白人女性的支持，但她在未上过大学的白人女性上输掉了28个百分点，在未上过大学的白人男性上输掉了49个百分点。


And if we look just at Republican voters, the gender gap vanishes almost entirely: 91% of Republican women and 92% of Republican men voted for Trump.	而如果我们只看共和党选民，性别差距几乎完全消失：91%的共和党女性和92%的共和党男性把票投给了特朗普。


This all points not to a single gender dynamic, but to one refracted through multiple social and economic lenses.	所有这些都不支持单一的性别动态，而指向多重社会和经济滤镜的深度折射。


For example, as CBS News noted, Clinton’s failure to match President Barack Obama’s performance with African-American voters was “entirely due to black men” not voting for her – though why this was the case remains unexplained.	比如，CBS新闻台指出，克林顿没有取得奥巴马总统在非洲裔选民中的表现“完全可以归因于黑人男性”没有投票给她——尽管为什么会这样没有得到解释。


And, despite her candidacy’s historic significance, Clinton’s performance with white women voters was no better than Obama’s performance in 2012.	此外，尽管她在提名竞争中取得空前大胜，但克林顿在白人女选民中的表现并未优于2012年的奥巴马。


We know that Republican women voted according to their party affiliation and not their gender.	我们知道，共和党女性投票是根据政党属性，而不是性别。


But Trump also seems to have reached white women not affiliated with a political party, perhaps owing to his campaign’s strategy of hyping women’s anxiety.	但特朗普似乎也赢得了不属于某个正当的白人女性，也许这是因为他的竞选战略直击女性的焦虑点。


This strategy’s success indicates one way that gender can play a role in voter decision-making.	这一战略的成功表明，性别在某种程度上可以影响投票决策。


Voter data going back 50 years suggests that women, more than men, are moved by the anxiety of changing circumstances and external threats.	回溯50年的选民数据表明，女性比男性更受环境变化和外部威胁所带来的焦虑的驱动。


For example, in the 1964 presidential election, Lyndon B. Johnson’s campaign aired the now-famous “Daisy” advertisement that suggested that his opponent, Barry Goldwater, would pull the US into a nuclear war; a week later, polls found that 45% of men, but 53% of women, shared that concern.	比如，在1964年的总统选举中，林登·约翰逊竞选班子制作了如今大名鼎鼎的“黛西”广告，暗示他的对手巴里·戈德华特（Barry Goldwater）将把美国拖入核战争； 一周后，民调显示45%的男性表示感同身受，但女性的这一比例达到了53%。


Similarly, George W. Bush performed 30% better with women voters in his 2004 re-election campaign than he did in his 2000 campaign, which many political analysts attribute to anxieties among white middle-class “security moms” in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.	类似地，小布什在2004年的连任选战中的女性选民表现比2000年更好，许多政治分析家将此归因于白人中产阶级“安全妈妈”因为2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击而引起焦虑。


Still more recently, in the 2014 US midterm elections, Republicans emphasized the US’s vulnerabilities, and aired advertisements hinting that the Islamic State was directing Ebola-infected agents to kill Americans.	更近一些的2014年美国中期选举中，共和党强调美国的弱点，并制作广告暗示伊斯兰国派出感染埃博拉病毒的特工杀死美国人。


Experts ridiculed these claims, but polling suggests that the advertisements were nevertheless effective, and a number of Democratic incumbents, and women in particular, lost elections that year.	专家对这样的宣传嗤之以鼻，但民调显示这些广告是有效的，而在那一年的选举中，许多民主党在任者——特别是女性——败走麦城。


The Democrats’ focus on reproductive rights had done little to sway women who were already worrying about the Islamic State and Ebola.	民主党对生育权的强调几乎无法动摇已经开始担忧伊斯兰国和埃博拉的女性。


As I warned at the time, the 2014 election was a trial run for a 2016 strategy to defeat a woman candidate.	当时我警告说，2014年选举是2016年击败女性候选人策略的试验场。


Many political observers assumed that this strategy could not possibly work for a Republican candidate who had suggested that a debate moderator was menstruating, joked about dating his daughter, was caught on tape boasting about groping women, and was publicly accused by several women of sexual harassment and assault.	许多政治观察家认为这一策略对于一位表示电视辩论主持人来“大姨妈”、打趣约会他女儿、吹嘘“咸猪手”被人拍下、被多位女性公开谴责性骚扰的共和党候选人来说根本没有作用。


But, just as in the 2014 election, Republican-leaning voters in 2016 were far more concerned about terrorism, crime, illegal immigration, and economic security than they were about issues such as sexism, racism, and inequality.	但是，一如2014年选举，2016年倾向于共和党的选民更加担心的是恐怖主义、犯罪、非法移民和经济安全，而不是性别歧视、种族主义和不平等性等问题。


Where does this leave American women?	这对美国女性意味着什么？


A female US presidential candidate has now won a majority of women’s votes, and more total votes than her male opponent, and yet her strategy failed to deliver enough votes to secure a victory.	一位女美国总统候选人赢得了多数女性选票，总票数也多于她的男性对手，但她的策略没有吸引足够选票以保证胜利。


In America’s polarized political culture, appeals to one group simply alienate other groups.	在极化的美国政治文化中，吸引一个群体等于疏远其他群体。


As long as female candidates are forced to meet multiple, contradictory gender expectations, the US will never close the most prominent gap of all: that between America and the many countries that have already chosen a woman to lead them.	美国永远无法填补最显眼的差距：美国和许多已经选择女性来领导他们的许多国家之间差距。


Worker Protests In China:  Plentiful But Preempted	中国的工人抗议：众而不力？


The last annualized figure for labor protests that Beijing was willing to announce publicly was 100,000 for the year 1999.	中国官方愿意公布的上一个关于年度劳工抗议活动的数字是1999年的100000起。 而据公安部2001年的一份内部报告披露，该数字自1997年以来“如疾风般增长”。


But a 2001 internal report from the Ministry of Public Security disclosed that the numbers "began a rise like a violent wind" from 1997, the year of the Communist Party's Fifteenth Congress, which pressed for factory firings in the name of "efficiency."	虽然中国政府决意对媒体封锁一切可能引发骚动的消息—或至少轻描淡写地报道其规模和破坏性—但我们仍然能够从发生在1994至2004年间的200多次不同事件中收集到信息。 这些事件只是在这期间实际发生而却未被报道的数千起事件的冰山一角。


While the government is determined to keep news of all disturbances out of the media--or at least downplay their size and disruptiveness--it has been possible to collect information on nearly 200 separate events occurring between 1994 and 2004, some from news sources in Hong Kong, some from the Western media, and a few from Chinese publications.	这些报道反映了同一种普遍增强之中的模式：各级政府，不论是北京还是地方，一般而言都容忍由手持请愿书和标语的农民和工人参与的，声势和规模较小且非破坏性的游行和静坐。 如果示威者们只是自发、无组织、地方性和无领袖的，政府对其态度则更为宽容。


They all exhibit the same, unchanging pattern: the government, whether in Beijing or the localities, tolerates the low-decibel, smaller-scale, relatively non-disruptive marches and sit-ins by demonstrators bearing petitions and posters, especially if they appear to be spontaneous, un-organized, localized and leaderless.	政治精英层对于那些可能由持不同政见者发动的，带有明显暴力性质的，体现出某种组织性的，以扩大化相威胁的或造成交通主动脉堵塞的动乱则不那么包容了。 的确，在中国大陆之外得以报道的少数事件往往都包含抗议者卧轨或阻塞城市主干道，攻击权力机关或与之发生冲突，拘留和逮捕等因素。


The incidents loom substantially more dangerous to the political elite if they seem to have been mobilized by dissidents, are marked by some measure of violence, threaten to spread, or entail the obstruction of major transport trunklines.	在这么一个通常被描绘为发展日新月异和高度强调“稳定”的国家，是什么在诱发这些不安定因素呢？ 原因是：拖欠工资和养老金；


Indeed, the episodes that make it into the media beyond the Mainland are usually such protests.	以及绝大多数从1950年代共产党政权早期就一直得以保证的社会主义权益的终结。 的确，在许多中国人日渐富裕的同时，失业让许多大城市近八分之一的正式登记居民直接陷入贫困。


What is sparking so much unrest in a country usually depicted as daily growing more affluent?	为了废止被后毛泽东时代的领导人们认为是过度和浪费的社会主义计划经济，自1990年代早期以来就有6000万国有企业职工因工厂效益差而被解雇。


Generally the causes are these: unpaid wages and pensions; sudden and massive job terminations; and management corruption held responsible for the bankruptcy of industrial enterprises--where discharged workers were secure, enjoying privileges and benefits, since the 1950s.	这些国有企业难以为继的原因是缺乏先进的技术和设备，管理不善或资产侵占，沉重的社会福利负担，或是来自国内外更为现代化和更有成本效率的非国有企业的竞争。


Job losses in the range of 60 million have suddenly rendered nearly an eighth of the urban populace indigent. Often without a dependable channel for airing their grievances, hordes of laid-off workers and retired folk have filled the avenues over the past decade or so.	由于没有真正可靠的渠道申诉不平，在过去的十年里，许许多多被解雇的工人和被迫下岗（只拿部分养老金）的工人正向政府发起挑战。


Doesn't the government mind if so much of its urban populace is sinking into poverty and becoming disaffected? Why is this stability-obsessed regime allowing so much instability?	难道这个自我标榜为“人民的”政府不在乎如此之多的城市平民陷入贫困，不满情绪与日俱增吗？


In fact, the leaders are terribly uneasy about the situation and discuss it frequently. Some of the response has been coldly coercive.	为什么这个重视稳定多于一切的政权允许这么多的不稳定因素存在呢？


But there is also a compensatory effort that has absorbed much of the energy of the bureaucracies for labor and social security, and for civil affairs.	事实是，虽然党的领导人们对这样的情况甚为不安并频繁商议对策，但在中国两种制度的过渡时期他们能有所作为的空间是有限的。


For 2004, the central government allocated some 78 billion yuan for laid-off workers and the poor, with localities also upping their outlays. But the sad truth is that probably only about a quarter of those pushed out of their plants ever received assistance.	共产党对“社会不稳定”的危险紧箍咒般的强调，和不遗余力地掌握政权，使得其官员们被迫以有限的手段来应对这些爆发性的不安定的现实及其背后的原因。


For those who have, however, this policy has nipped discontent in the bud.	同时这些动乱也使共产党蒙羞，它本应代表无产阶级的最高利益。


Additionally, there have been attempts to create new posts, develop labor-intensive industries and small and medium sized firms, promote the private sector, and encourage service jobs, plus offering occupational training: the government allocated an additional 4.7 billion yuan expressly for job creation in 2004.	但它也采取了一些补偿性的措施，让劳动、社会保障和民政部门的官僚们忙得不亦乐乎。 他们都必须为平息社会动荡而划拨数目可观的应急资金。


These policies mitigate the pain of job loss for their recipients.	该计划在为下岗职工提供基本的生活费、医疗保险和养老金方面起到了临时管理者的作用。 同时，它也试图为下岗工人寻找新的就业机会或为他们自己创业提供优惠的条件。


Promotion of the law also aims at alleviating anger. As workers' consciousness of their rights increases, they are gradually more and more apt to appeal grievances to the courts: from 1995 to 2001, adjudicated labor disputes rose from 28,000 to 101,000.	实际上，中央政府在2004年共划拨779亿元巨款用于下岗工人和贫困人口，各级地方政府也同时加大了拨款力度。


Offering workers legal redress has turned their attention temporarily from the streets to mediation and may well have reduced the number of street demonstrations.	但悲哀的是可能只有约四分之一的下岗工人曾得到过任何有实际意义的帮助。 而对于那些成千上万未能受惠的工人，这项政策已将他们的不满掐灭在萌芽状态。


Other initiatives are a program of allowances, training and placement for the laid-off; unemployment insurance (which, unfortunately, depends on the economic health of the firm to which a worker was once attached); and pension reform--having similar problems.	随着广大工人的维权意识日渐加强，他们更倾向于向法庭申诉冤情。 的确，在1995至2001年间，法院裁决的劳资纠纷从28000件增加到了101000件。


There is also a scheme to supply a "minimum livelihood guarantee" to the desperately poor.	诚然，工人们时常发现由于受贿和被告的经理人们更大的影响力，仲裁并没有起到多大作用。


Recipients numbered over 20 million as of early 2004, when 15 billion yuan was budgeted for the program (with the central government contributing a full 60%). These programs are noticed at the grassroots, with the indigent feeling grateful for them.	但法律途径至少将一部分心怀不满的工人的注意力暂时从走上街头转移到法律调解，而这就有助于减少对抗性的街头示威。


Protest in China has spun upward dramatically in recent years, in numbers, scale, and organization.	虽然如此，在过去几年里，中国城市抗议活动的数量还是大幅增加，而且据警方的报告称，它们的规模更大也更有组织了。


But by the means listed above the regime has become adept at suppressing opposition.	到目前为止，政府通过控制媒体（从而防止一个抗议运动了解另一个并与之串联），通过发放临时津贴安抚失业工人，和镇压及关押不听劝阻的人等方式成功地保持了总体的稳定。


Its power to intimidate and punish may trump all its other moves to stay ahead of the discontent.	然而，与由苛捐杂税、官员腐败和肆意征地引发的农民抗议活动联系起来考量，以上所为也不过是权宜之计。 共产党的领导人们发现自己正面临着一种令他们极为不安的情况。


But overall, increasing responsiveness--if clearly not in a democratic mode--has managed to maintain the instability that does exist at a level and within a scope that marks a game of unwritten rules -- one of complainants confining their choler within understood bounds and of the government watchful over an ever-simmering stew.	因为现在中国共产党所面临的政治威胁不再像1989年时那样由学生和知识分子构成，而是由工人和农民构成。 荒谬的是，毛泽东正是以这两个被剥削阶级为基础建立了他的革命，而中国共产党以正是以他们的名义进行着一直以来的一党专政。


Workers’ Paradise?	是工人们的天堂吗？


CAMBRIDGE -- Will the political resurgence of labor unions throw a wrench into the wheels of globalization?	剑桥--众多工会组织在政治上东山再起是否会阻碍全球化的进展呢？


Or will their growing strength serve to make globalization more sustainable by fostering great equality and fairness?	或者其日益增长的实力通过促进平等和公平而让全球化更为可以持续呢？


One way or the other, unions stand as a major wild card for the evolution of our economic system in 2008 and beyond.	不管怎样，工会在2008年及其今后将会成为我们的经济制度演进中的一个难以琢磨的因素。


Unions’ rising influence is evident in many recent events: German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s controversial deal to raise minimum wages for postal employees; several American presidential candidates’ open misgivings about trade and immigration; and the Chinese leadership’s nascent concerns about labor standards.	工会日盛的影响力在最近许多事件中都昭然若揭。 德国总理默克尔为邮政职工提高最低工资引发了争议；


Along with their political clout, unions’ intellectual respectability is also experiencing a renaissance.	工会在智识上的受尊敬程度与其政治影响力一样在复苏。 几十年来，经济学家们诽谤说工会增加了失业并限制增长。


After decades of vilification by economists for raising unemployment and strangling growth, the union movement is now receiving backing from thought leaders such as Paul Krugman, who argues that stronger unions are needed to counter globalization’s worst excesses.	现在，工会运动则得到了思想界人士例如格鲁格曼的支持。 他们说人们需要更为强大的工会来对抗全球化最为糟糕的方面。


The sudden emergence of unions as a political force is particularly surprising in the United States, where private-sector union membership has fallen from 25% in 1975 to 8% today.	在美国，工会突然间作为一支政治力量显现尤其令人惊讶。 美国私营部门工会成员人数从1975年的25%下降到今天的8%。


From high-tech Google to mass retailer Wal-Mart, US companies have found ways to keep their shops union-free.	从高技数的谷歌到大型零售店沃尔玛，美国的公司有办法把工会组织拒之门外。


Only the public sector, where the membership rate is 35%, has remained a union bastion.	公共部门的成员比例达到35%，也只有它才继续保持成为工会的堡垒。


One of my best friends from childhood married a union organizer who found it so difficult to land a job in the US that he eventually moved his family to strike-happy Canada.	我儿时最好的一个朋友嫁给了一个工会组织者。 他发现在美国根本难以找到工作，于是最终举家搬到了罢工快乐的加拿大。


Today, US political leaders such as Congressman Barney Frank want to bring back unions.	今天，美国的政治领导人例如国会议员富兰克想要恢复工会的风光。


But there is good reason to be skeptical.	但是人们有充足的理由对此表示怀疑。


For a relatively poor country like China, real unions could help balance employers’ power, bringing quality-of-life benefits that outweigh the growth costs.	对于一个类似中国那样相对较穷的国家，真正的工会可以制约雇主的权力并且带来超过经济增长代价的生活质量的利益。


Factory conditions in parts of China are all too reminiscent of the early twentieth-century, pre-union US.	在中国的一些地方，工厂的条件让人想起二十世纪早期工会发展之前的美国。


Thousands of Chinese workers die each year in coal mines that sometimes lack basic safety precautions.	中国每年有几千名煤矿工人死亡，这些煤矿有时缺乏基本的安全保护措施。


But, for the US and rich countries in Europe, the argument that stronger unions would bring more benefits than costs is far more dubious.	但是，对于美国和欧洲的富国们来说，更为强大的工会带来的利益大于代价，这一论点是难以令人信服的。


Nowadays, most workers already have legal and statutory rights that cover the basic protections that unions originally fought for a century ago.	当今，大多数工人已经有了法律和法定权利，这些权利包含了工会在一个世纪前所争取的基本保护措施。


Instead, union influence today all too often serves to promulgate inflexible work practices and flat salary structures that do not adequately reward work effort and skill.	相反，如今工会的影响力过多地用来公布不能足以奖励工作干劲和技能的僵化的工作实务以及划一的工资结构。


It is no surprise that the public sector, where productivity is low and fiscal constraints soft, typically has the greatest union concentration.	公共部门效率低下，没有太多的财政限制，通常工会组织最为集中，这也就不足为奇了。


Teachers’ unions, especially, are a catastrophe, blocking any rationalization or improvement of many countries’ education systems.	教师工会特别是一个灾难，它们阻碍许多国家教育体系中任何合理化和改进。


Before the modern globalization era, unions could thrive by organizing on a national scale, giving them enormous bargaining power vis-à-vis both employers and consumers.	现代全球化时代之前，工会可以通过在全国范围内组织而发展壮大，从而在对雇主和消费者上给了它们巨大的讨价还价的实力。


Now, after the explosive post-war expansion of global trade, most unions have seen their monopoly power eroded, if not shattered.	现在，全球贸易在战后爆炸式发展，大多数工会发现其垄断实力要么瓦解，要么受到侵蚀。


That is why unions throughout much of the developed world have been fighting so hard to block free-trade negotiations that might erode their position further.	这就是为何发达国家中的工会不遗余力地阻碍可能进一步侵蚀其实力的自由贸易谈判。


Some of the issues that unions are promoting, such as human rights and environmental quality, are unassailable.	工会所促进得某些问题，例如人权和环境质量是无可非议的。


When they try to connect these issues with trade, however, their motives become questionable.	但是，当它们企图把这些问题与贸易挂钩的时候，它们的动机就变得可疑了。


A case in point is union lobbying against the US-Colombia free-trade agreement, ratification of which would greatly advance US-Latin American relations.	其中一个事例就是工会游说反对美国和哥伦比亚的自由贸易协议。 批准这一协议将会大大增进美国和拉美国家的关系。


Legitimate questions about how the Colombian government conducted its epic civil war with drug-financed rebels do not trump broader issues.	哥伦比亚支付与贩毒组织支持的反叛力量进行了艰苦卓绝的内战，对于其如何进行这一内战的合理的问题并不让更为广泛的问题消失殆尽。


So anti-pact activists have complained that Colombia is anti-union because it does not protect union members from rebel violence.	因此，反对这一协议的活动份子们抱怨说哥伦比亚反对工会，因为它并不保护工会成员免于反叛者的暴力。


Yet the Colombian government notes that all Colombians suffer from rebel violence – union members actually experience less of it than the rest of the population.	但是哥伦比亚政府注意到，所有的哥伦比亚人都受到反叛者暴力之苦，而工会成员实际上要比国内其他人经���的要少。


Unfortunately, this play is being re-enacted across a host of trade issues, including many involving China.	不幸的是，在许多贸易问题上这一闹剧都在重演，包括中国在内。


For rich countries, income redistribution is much better handled through taxes and benefits system, rather than by government edicts to strengthen unions.	对于富国而言，通过税收和福利制度可以更好地处理收入重新分配，而非通过政府法令来加强工会组织。


The rich today pay so little in taxes in many countries, that it would be a big improvement simply to move to a flat tax, with a very high exemption level so that lower-income families pay nothing.	如今，许多国家的富人纳税很少，倒不如干脆转向免税额度很高的单一税，这样低收入家庭就不必纳税。


For middle-income countries, it is a tougher call.	对于中等收入国家而言，这是难以做出的决定。


But here, too, increasing workers’ legal and statutory rights, while allowing most unions to fade away, seems like the right approach.	但是在这一问题上还是这样，也就是增加工人们的法律和法定权利，同时让大多数工会自生自灭似乎是一个正确的办法。


Unfortunately, we are far more likely to see unions’ growing political influence become a major destabilizing force in trade and growth, with highly uncertain consequences.	不幸的是，我们更有可能发现工会不断增长的政治影响力成为贸易和经济增长的一个主要不稳定力量，其后果令人难以预料。


When we see political leaders in many rich countries pander to unions by bashing each other on free trade and immigration, there is every reason to worry about trouble ahead.	当我们看到富有国家中的许多政治领导人通过在自由贸易和移民问题上相互抨击对方而取悦于工会之时，人们就有理由担心今后的麻烦。


That is why unions will be one of the main economic wild cards in 2008.	这就是为何工会将会成为2008年主要的一个不可知的经济因素之一。


The Evolution of Work	工作的演化


CAMBRIDGE – In mid-December, the United Nations will launch the latest of its annual landmark Human Development Reports.	坎布里奇—12月中旬，联合国将发布最新一期标志性的年度人权发展报告。


This year’s report focuses on the nature of work: how the way we earn a living is being transformed by economic globalization, new technologies, and innovations in social organization.	今年的报告关注焦点是工作的性质：我们讨生活的方式如何被经济全球化、新科技和社会组织方面的创新所改变。


The outlook for developing countries, in particular, is decidedly mixed.	特别是，发展中国家的前景十分模糊。


For most people most of the time, work is mostly unpleasant.	对大部分时间里的大部分人来说，工作大多是不令人愉快的。


Historically, doing lots of backbreaking work is how countries have become rich.	历史上，辛苦勤劳地工作是国家致富的源泉。


And being rich is how some people get the chance to do more pleasant work.	而变富是一些人有机会做比较令人愉快的工作的原因。


Thanks to the Industrial Revolution, new technologies in cotton textiles, iron and steel, and transportation delivered steadily rising levels of labor productivity for the first time in history.	拜工业革命所赐，棉花纺织、钢铁和交通方面的新科技给我们带来了历史上第一次劳动生产率水平的稳步提高。


First in Britain in the mid-eighteenth century, and then in Western Europe and North America, men and women flocked from the countryside to towns to satisfy factories’ growing demand for labor.	先是十九世纪中叶的英国，然后是西欧和北美，男男女女从乡村涌向城镇以满足工厂对劳动力的不断增长的需求。


But, for decades, workers gained few of the benefits of rising productivity.	但是，在几十年的时间里，工人几乎没有得到任何生产率提高所带来的好处。


They worked long hours in stifling conditions, lived in overcrowded and unsanitary housing, and experienced little growth in earnings.	他们在令人窒息的环境中长时间工作，住在没有卫生设施的拥挤的宿舍中，收入也几乎没有增长。


Some indicators, such as workers’ average height, suggest that standards of living may have even declined for a while.	一些指标，如工人平均体重，表明生活质量可能下降了一段时间。


Eventually, capitalism transformed itself and its gains began to be shared more widely.	最终，资本主义改变了它自己，其收益得到了更加广泛的分享。


This was partly because wages naturally began to rise as the surplus of rural workers dried up.	这部分是因为，随着农村剩余工人数量的枯竭，工资自然开始上涨。


But, equally important, workers organized themselves to defend their interests.	但是，同样重要的是，工人们开始自发组织起来捍卫自己的利益。


Fearing revolution, the industrialists compromised.	产业家害怕革命，只能妥协。


Civil and political rights were extended to the working class.	公民和政治权利扩大到工人阶级。


Democracy, in turn, tamed capitalism further.	民主反过来进一步制约了资本主义。


Employment conditions improved as state-mandated or negotiated arrangements led to reduced working hours, greater safety, and family, health, and other benefits.	国家规定或劳资双方商定的安排降低了工作时长，增加了安全度，提高了家庭、医疗和其他福利，就业环境有了改善。


Public investment in education and training made workers both more productive and freer to exercise choice.	教育和培训方面的公共投资提高了工人的生产率，也让他们能够更自由地进行选择。


As a result, labor’s share of the enterprise surplus rose.	于是，劳动力占企业盈余的份额开始上升。


While factory jobs never became pleasant, blue-collar occupations now enabled a middle-class standard of living, with all its consumption possibilities and lifestyle opportunities.	工厂工作仍然不令人愉快，但蓝领岗位已能够让人过上中产阶级的生活，拥有中产阶级的消费能力和生活方式机会。


Eventually, technological progress undermined industrial capitalism.	最终，科技进步打破了产业资本主义。


Labor productivity in manufacturing industries rose much faster than in the rest of the economy: The same or higher quantity of steel, cars, and electronics could be produced with far fewer workers.	制造业的劳动生产率增长远远快于经济的其他部分：质量相同或更高的钢材、汽车和电子产品，只需要少得多的工人就可以生产出来。


So the “excess” workers moved to service industries – education, health, finance, entertainment, and public administration, for example.	因此“过剩”的工人们进入服务业——教育、医疗、金融、娱乐和公共管理等。


Thus was born the post-industrial economy.	后工业经济诞生了。


Work became more pleasant for some, but not for all.	对一些人来说，工作变得更加令人愉快了，但并非所有人都是如此。


For those with the skills, capital, and savvy to prosper in the post-industrial age, services offered inordinate opportunities.	对拥有技能、资本和见识，能够在后工业时代实现发达的人来说，服务业带来了超乎想象的机会。


Bankers, consultants, and engineers earned much higher wages than their industrial-age forebears.	银行家、咨询师和工程师的收入远远高于他们工业时代的前辈。


Equally important, office work allowed a degree of freedom and personal autonomy that factory work never provided.	同样重要的是，办公室工作提供了工厂工作所不具备的一定程度的自由和自主性。


Notwithstanding long hours (perhaps longer than in factory jobs), service professionals enjoyed much greater control over their daily lives and workplace decisions.	尽管工作时间很长（可能比工厂岗位更长），但服务业专业人士能更好地控制日常生活和决定工作场合。


Teachers, nurses, and waiters were not paid nearly as well, but they, too, were released from the humdrum mechanical drudgery of the shop floor.	教师、护士和侍应生的薪酬并不是很高，但他们可以摆脱商场中单调乏味的机械式工作。


For less skilled workers, however, service-sector jobs meant giving up the negotiated benefits of industrial capitalism.	但是，对于技能较弱的工人来说，服务业岗位意味着放弃与产业资本主义商定的福利。


The transition to a service economy often went hand in hand with the decline of unions, employment protections, and norms of pay equity, greatly weakening workers’ bargaining power and job security.	转向服务经济常常与工会、就业保护、薪酬平等性规范的式微一起发生，大大削弱了工人的议价能力和岗位安全度。


So the post-industrial economy opened up a new chasm in the labor market, between those with stable, high-paid, and fulfilling services jobs and those with fleeting, low-paid, and unsatisfying jobs.	因此，后工业经济开启了劳动力市场的新差异，一端是稳定、高薪、有满足感的服务业岗位，一端是动荡、低薪、的满意度的岗��。


Two factors determined the share of each type of job – and thus the extent of inequality produced by the post-industrial transition: the education and skill level of the workforce, and the degree of institutionalization of labor markets in services (in addition to manufacturing).	两大因素决定了每一种类型岗位的比重——也决定了后工业转型所带来的不平等程度：劳动力的教育和技能水平，以及（制造业以外的）服务业劳动力市场的制度化水平。


Inequality, exclusion, and duality became more marked in countries where skills were poorly distributed and many services approximated the textbook “ideal” of spot markets.	在技能分布情况糟糕、许多服务类似于教科书上的“理想”现货市场的国家，不平等、排斥和二元性日益显著。


The United States, where many workers are forced to hold multiple jobs in order to make an adequate living, remains the canonical example of this model.	在美国，许多工人被迫打多份工才能维持体面的生活，堪称这一模式的经典案例。


The vast majority of workers still live in low- and middle-income countries and have yet to go through these transformations.	仍然生活在中低收入国家的绝大部分工人尚未完成这些转型。


There are two reasons to believe that their future path will (or need) not unfold in quite the same way.	基于两个原因，可以认为他们的未来路径不会（或不必）一样。


First, there is no reason that safe working conditions, freedom of association, and collective bargaining cannot be introduced at earlier stages of development than has occurred historically.	首先，没有理由认为安全的工作环境、结社自由和集体议价必须遵循历史模式，而不能在发展的较早阶段就引入。


Just as political democracy need not wait for incomes to rise, strong labor standards need not lag behind economic development.	正如政治民主必须要等待收入上升才能开始，提高劳动标准也不一定要落后于经济发展。


Workers in low-income countries should not be deprived of fundamental rights for the sake of industrial development and export performance.	低收入国家的工人不应该为了工业发展和出口表现而被剥夺基本权利。


Second, the forces of globalization and technological progress have combined to alter the nature of manufacturing work in a way that makes it very difficult, if not impossible, for newcomers to emulate the industrialization experience of the Four Asian Tigers, or the European and North American economies before them.	其次，全球化和科技进步的力量已经形成合力，改变了制造业工作的性质，后进者很难甚至不可能模仿亚洲四小龙或更早的欧洲和北美经济体的工业化经验。


Many (if not most) developing countries are becoming service economies without having developed a large manufacturing sector – a process I have called “premature de-industrialization.”	许多（甚至大部分）发展中国家在没有发展出巨大的制造业的情况下就开始转向服务经济——我称之为“早产去工业化”过程。


Could premature de-industrialization be a blessing in disguise, enabling workers in the developing world to bypass the drudgery of manufacturing?	早产去工业化可能是一种伪装的福音，让发展中世界的工人直接跳过枯燥乏味的制造业吗？


If so, how such a future could be constructed is not at all clear.	如果答案是肯定的，那么未来可能怎样尚不清楚。


A society in which most workers are self-proprietors – shopkeepers, independent professionals, or artists – and set their own terms of employment while making an adequate living is feasible only when economy-wide productivity is already very high.	一个社会中的大部分工人都自我就业——成为店主、独立专业人士或艺术家——有各自的就业条件，同时能够过上体面的生活，这种社会只有在全经济生产率相当高的情况下才可行。


High-productivity services – such as IT or finance – require well-trained workers, not the unskilled kind that poor countries have in abundance.	高生产率服务业——如IT和金融——需要受过良好训练的工人，而不是穷国遍地都是的低技能工人。


So there is both good and bad news for the future of work in developing countries.	因此，对于发展中国家的工作的未来来说，既有好消息，也有坏消息。


Thanks to social policy and labor rights, workers can become full stakeholders in the economy much earlier in the process of development.	拜社会政策和劳动权利所赐，工人能够在发展过程的较早阶段就成为经济的完全相关利益方。


At the same time, the traditional engine of economic development – industrialization – is likely to operate at much lower capacity.	与此同时，传统社会发展引擎——工业化——可能动力较低。


The resulting combination of high public expectations and low income-producing capacity will be a major challenge for developing economies everywhere.	由此产生的高公共预期和低收入产生能力的组合可能成为所有发展中经济体的主要挑战。


The Unfinished Business of Gender Parity	性别平等的未竟事业


DAVOS – When it comes to the importance of gender equality in the workplace, the message has clearly gotten through to those at the top.	达沃斯——高层人士已经明确开始关注在工作场所实现性别平等的重要性等问题。


Surveys – including those conducted by my own organization – consistently show that business leaders understand the need for equal treatment of men and women in the workforce.	包括我本人所在机构进行的各项调查结果一致表明，企业领导人对于必须平等对待男女劳动者已经有了明确的认识。


Indeed, my own conversations with senior businesspeople around the world confirm that progress clearly is being made.	事实上，我与世界各地资深商务人士的对话证实在这方面正在取得显著的进步。


The vast majority recognize the issue as imperative to their companies’ success and have implemented measures to promote gender parity in their organizations.	绝大部分人认识到这对企业的成功必不可少，并已着手采取措施提高所在机构的性别平等程度。


And yet, for all the fine words, much more remains to be done before gender parity is actually achieved.	但尽管态度非常积极，真正实现性别平等还要进行很多工作。


The facts speak for themselves.	事实是不言自明的。


There is still a pay gap in every country in the world, with men earning more than women for similar jobs.	工资差距仍在世界每一个国家从事类似工作的男女员工间现实存在着。


Likewise, the percentage of seats on corporate boards occupied by women appears to have stalled at just over 17%.	同样，女性担任公司董事的比例似乎一直徘徊在17%左右。


This bias has not gone unnoticed – especially among female employees.	这样的偏见并未受到人们——特别是女性员工的忽视。


In a 2015 PwC global survey of female millennials born between 1980 and 1995, half of those working in financial services said they believed that men received more favorable treatment when it came to promotions.	2015年普华永道对生于1980和1995年间的千禧女性全球调查结果显示，从事金融服务工作的女性近半数表示她们认为男性在升职方面得到的待遇更加优越。


More than 70% said that as much as their organizations talk about diversity, in reality, opportunities remain unequal.	超过70%的女性表示尽管其所在机构提倡多样性，但在现实中她们仍然得不到平等的机会。


Interestingly, other studies conclude that when women are provided with the opportunity to perform on an equal footing with men, they more often than not come out on top.	有趣的是，其他研究得出结论，当为女性和男性提供同等机会时，往往女性能够拔得头筹。


A recent ten-year analysis of 300 start-up investments backed by venture capitalists in the United States showed that companies with a female founder performed 63% better than those with all-male founding teams.	近期一份由美国风投人士出资进行的针对300家初创企业的投资分析表明，有女性创业者的企业业绩较之全是男性团队的企业高63%左右。


And another of PwC’s research programs, examining the changing faces of billionaires worldwide, discovered what we called the “Athena Factor.”	普华永道另一项研究结果显示，世界各地亿万富翁的变化体现出我们所谓的“雅典娜因素”。


The increase in the number of female billionaires significantly outpaces that among men, with Asia registering the fastest growth in the ranks of self-made female billionaires.	女性富豪人数增加明显快于男性，其中增长速度最快的首推亚洲自主创业的女性富豪。


Where women have the opportunity to capitalize on their talents, they are doing so successfully and with gusto.	在女性有机会发挥才华时，她们对此满怀激情并取得了成功。


Meanwhile, there is growing recognition of the positive contribution that greater workforce diversity makes to business performance.	与此同时，劳动力多元化对企业绩效的积极贡献越来越被人们所认识到。


And yet, as reflected in the stubborn persistence of the pay gap, barriers to women’s progress remain.	不过，长期存在的工资差距显示依然存在阻碍女性进步的因素。


What is now needed is a genuine and permanent shift in attitudes and behavior.	现在需要的是态度和行为真正的永久性变化。


Many of the biases holding women back are unconscious; and, by their very nature, these blind spots cannot be tackled by statements of intent alone.	阻碍女性进步的很多是无意识因素； 而且，其本身性质决定了仅靠明确目的来解决这些盲区还远远不够。


Tackling gender inequality will require us to identify where, how, and why these biases materialize, and to develop systematic strategies and interventions to root them out.	改变性别不平等需要我们明确上述偏见在哪里、为什么和怎样付诸实施，并制定系统的战略和干预措施来加以铲除。


In order to accomplish this, businesses must actively challenge men to help advance women in the workforce.	为实现上述目标，企业必须积极要求男性协助女性争取职业进步。


That is why I am proud to be a founding Corporate Impact Champion of the UN Women’s HeForShe movement.	因此我为成为联合国女性他为她运动最初的企业影响创始者而感到自豪。


Creating real and lasting change will require helping men and women work together.	男女必须竭诚合作才能实现真正的永久性变化。


The business case for doing so is incontrovertible.	这样做有着不容置疑的商业理由。


Not only do women make up half the global population; the same skills needed to work through differences in gender – open-mindedness, humility, empathy – can be used to work across other types of differences, be they cultural, physical, or personal.	不仅女性占到全球人口的一半； 而且克服性别歧视所需的同样素质——即开放、谦逊、同情——同样可以克服文化、生理或人性等其他类型的不同。


It is important, of course, to reassure male skeptics who view gender parity as a threat.	当然，让怀疑性别平等是某种威胁的男性放心非常重要。


In June 2015, I hosted a HeForShe chat on Twitter , and while the conversation was overwhelmingly positive, an obvious concern surfaced: Why should men help promote women to positions for which they themselves are aiming?	2015年6月，我在推特上主持了他��她计划的聊天活动。 虽然谈话从总体来看非常积极，但仍然出现了某种显著的担忧：男性为什么要帮助女性得到他们自己都希望得到的职务？


Addressing such concerns will require us to show that we are not promoting some people at the expense of others; gender parity must be win-win, not zero-sum.	安抚这些担忧需要明确我们不是要以牺牲某些人为代价来抬高另一些人；


At PwC, this is being addressed by hosting conversations in which men and women discuss gender issues collaboratively and respectfully, and by working with both genders to challenge double standards and acknowledge potential blind spots.	性别平等必须达到双赢、而非零和的效果。 普华永道正组织男女员工在合作和相互尊敬的基础上探讨性别问题，并与两性合作挑战双重标准、寻找潜在盲点。


Recent research suggests that, at the current rate of progress, it will take another 80 years to reach gender parity.	近期的研究表明按照目前的发展速度，还要再过80年才能实现两性平等的目标。


That is not good enough.	这样的速度远远不够。


Let us all commit to achieving it in our lifetimes – for the benefit of everyone.	让我们所有人致力于在有生之年实现——这对我们每个人都有好处。


Poverty Beyond the Numbers	数字之外的贫困


ASUNCIÓN – What is poverty?	亚松森—什么是贫困？


For decades, we have defined it with a number, which the World Bank currently puts at a personal income of less than $1.90 per day.	几十年来，我们用数字来给它定义，世界银行目前的标准是个人收入低于每天1. 90美元。


But a single number fails to capture the complexity of poverty.	但一个数字是无法捕捉到贫困的复杂性的。


Measuring more than just income is essential to understanding the needs of poor people and delivering optimal assistance.	用收入以外的指标进行衡量对于理解穷人的需要和给予最优援助至关重要。


As the World Bank convenes its Spring Meetings in Washington, DC next week, we have an opportunity to set benchmarks that include social and environmental dimensions of poverty.	下周，世界银行将在华盛顿召开春季会议，我们有机会设定包含贫困的社会和环境因素在内的基准。


The Bank has acknowledged that more than income should be considered, and recently established a Commission on Global Poverty to recommend additional metrics.	世界银行承认应该考虑收入之外的指标，并在最近成立了全球贫困委员会推荐增加的指标。


Although many public and private groups already collect data on a range of issues affecting poor communities such as nutrition, maternal health, or access to education, such information remains largely untapped and is rarely shared across institutions.	尽管众多公共和私人团体已经开始收集影响贫困社区的一系列问题的数据，如营养、母婴健康、教育普及度等，但这些信息仍然没有得到充分利用，并很少在机构间共享。


But there are some beacons of light, including the Social Progress Index, which provides a framework for tracking multiple symptoms of poverty across countries and complements traditional income-based measures.	但也有一些希望之光，如社会进步指数提供了一个追踪不同国家多种贫困指标的框架，可以补充传统的基于收入的指标。


When we rely on a single number to measure poverty, we misdiagnose the needs of poor people.	当我们依靠一个数字来衡量贫困时，我们误判了穷人的需要。


In my home country, Paraguay, I work with one of the country’s largest social enterprises, Fundación Paraguaya, to provide microfinance, education, and training to thousands of our poorest citizens.	在我的祖国巴拉圭，我与我国最大的社会机构之一巴拉圭基金会（Fundación Paraguaya）合作为成千上万最贫穷巴拉圭公民提供微金融、教育和培训。


We look at 50 metrics across six dimensions of poverty, including income, housing, education, and infrastructure.	我们着眼于六个贫困维度的50个指标，包括收入、住房、教育和基础设施。


One of our clients, Doña Mercedes, is now a successful micro-entrepreneur from a rural community not far from the capital city of Asunción.	我们的客户之一唐娜·梅赛德斯（Doña Mercedes）现在是一位成功的微企业家，她出身于距离首都亚松桑不远的农村社区。


When she first started with Fundación Paraguaya, she was sharing a single-bedroom home with 16 other family members and cooking meals on a small fire pit on the dirt floor.	当她从巴拉圭基金会起步时，她与16位其他家庭成员共享一个单间，在泥土地板上支起一个小火炉做饭。


Now she has a cement floor, a brick house, a separate kitchen, and around $500 in personal savings.	现在她有了水泥地板、砖瓦房和独立厨房，还有500美元个人储蓄。


By using Fundación Paraguaya’s self-evaluation on poverty, she was able to understand her own needs better and address them one at time.	通过使用巴拉圭基金会的贫困自我评估，她得以逐一认识和解决自身需要。


While traditional approaches focus largely on estimating the sources of household expenses and income, the Fundación Paraguaya self-evaluation helped Doña Mercedes break down her needs into 50 discrete areas that she could work on, piece by piece, and monitor over time.	传统方法主要专注于估计家庭支出和收入源，而巴拉圭基金会的自我评估帮助唐娜·梅赛德斯将她的需要分解为50个具体的部分，让她可以逐步逐个努力解决���并随时监控效果。


For example, she self-evaluated the state of her bathroom and kitchen, the quality of the food eaten at home, the family’s dental health, the number of separate bedrooms in the house, and even her self-esteem and decision-making capacity.	比如，她自我评估了卫生间和厨房状态、在家吃的食物的质量、家庭的牙齿健康、房子中独立卧室的数量，甚至她的自尊心和决策能力。


A simple poverty map helps her track her progress by using the colors of the stoplight, red, yellow, and green, and highlight her priority areas.	一张简单的贫困地图通过信号灯的颜色——红、黄、绿以及将重点区域高亮显示帮助她追踪自己的进步。


Next she plans to add two more bedrooms to her house and to work on enlarging her business.	接着，她计划为房子增加两个卧室并致力于拓展生意。


Fundación Paraguaya has been able to replicate this type of success in other parts of the world.	巴拉圭基金会能够在世界其他地区复制这一类型的成功。


In Tanzania, where I worked for three years in rural communities, we helped villages in the Southern Highlands adapt our poverty indicators to the local context in order to tackle water, sanitation, and electrification needs.	我在坦桑尼亚农村社区工作了三年，帮助南方高地（Southern Highlands）的村庄根据本地环境采取我们的贫困指标解决水、卫生和电气化需求。


Similar efforts are being deployed in South Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, China, and beyond.	南非、尼日利亚、乌干达、中国和其他国家也进行了类似的努力。


We could make even more progress with public-sector support.	如果有公共部门的支持，我们可以取得更大的进步。


Fundación Paraguaya collects rich data across multiple dimensions, tracking more than 8,700 families each year in Paraguay alone.	巴拉圭基金会收集了各个维度的丰富数据，光是在巴拉圭每年就要追踪8,700多户家庭。


If this information were to reach the government of Paraguay – which has its own methods for collecting data – we could identify pockets of poverty sooner and customize programs to help each family.	如果这一信息可以为巴拉圭政府所用——它有其自身的收集数据方法——我们可以更快确定贫困区域，为每户家庭制定个性化的帮助计划。


Because the information is self-reported, this sort of collaboration could deliver targeted aid and highlight specific public services that are needed.	由于信息为自我报告，这类合作能够实现定向援助，突显出所需要的具体的公共服务。


Moreover, if the World Bank’s Commission on Global Poverty adopts multidimensional poverty measures, it will spur other organizations to produce and share more detailed poverty data.	此外，如果世界银行全球贫困委员会采取多维度贫困衡量指标，将刺激其他组织收集和共享更加详细的贫困数据。


That will give aid workers a more comprehensive poverty map of the world, helping to boost the effectiveness of anti-poverty efforts everywhere.	这将让援助工作者获得更加全面的世界贫困地图，有助于提高世界各地扶贫措施的效果。


It won’t be easy to choose which measures to include, or even how to set universal yardsticks; but even adopting a few basic ones would spur progress.	要决定选择纳入那些指标绝非易事，甚至决定如何制定通用标准也不容易； 但即使是采用一些最基本的指标也能刺激进步。


For too long, one-dimensional measures such as the $1.90 per day guideline have misdiagnosed poor people’s problems – and more importantly, their causes.	长期以来，每天1. 90美元这样的一维指标误导我们对穷人的问题——以及更重要的，问题的根源的认识。


We know that the $1.90 per day benchmark does not fully capture the struggles of poor people in places such as Paraguay.	我们知道，每天1. 90美元的基准不能充分抓住巴拉圭等地区穷人的潦倒状况。


Fortunately, the World Bank now appears to recognize the limits of its income-based indicator.	幸运的是，如今世界银行似乎认识到其基于收入的指标的局限性。


Ensuring that the right type of aid reaches those most in need in a timely and effective manner requires development policymakers to embrace the type of multidimensional poverty data that aid organizations like Fundación Paraguaya have learned to gather.	确保正确的援助类型及时高效地到达最需要的人需要发展政策制定者采用巴拉圭基金会等组织已经学会收集的多维贫困数据类型。


The World Economy Without China	没有中国的世界经济


NEW HAVEN – Is the Chinese economy about to implode?	纽黑文—中国经济快要崩溃了吗？


With its debt overhangs and property bubbles, its zombie state-owned enterprises and struggling banks, China is increasingly portrayed as the next disaster in a crisis-prone world.	债务堆积和房地产泡沫、国企僵尸化、银行步履维艰，中国被越来越多的人描述成危机重重的世界中的下一场灾难。


I remain convinced that such fears are overblown, and that China has the strategy, wherewithal, and commitment to achieve a dramatic structural transformation into a services-based consumer society while successfully dodging daunting cyclical headwinds.	我仍然这些担心有些杞人忧天，中国有战略、能力和决心实现伟大的结构转型，成为以服务为基础的消费社会，同时成功地规避巨大的周期性困难。


But I certainly recognize that this is now a minority opinion.	但我当然也知道目前这是少数人的观点。


For example, US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew continues to express the rather puzzling view that the United States “can’t be the only engine in the world economy.”	比如，美国财政部长雅各布·卢仍然持有相当令人难以理解的观点：美国“无法成为世界经济唯一的引擎。


Actually, it’s not: the Chinese economy is on track to contribute well over four times as much to global growth as the US this year.	”事实上它也不是：今年中国经济对全球增长的贡献很有可能是美国的四倍有余。


But maybe Lew is already assuming the worst for China in his assessment of the world economy.	但也许卢已经在其对世界经济的评估中假设了中国遭遇最坏情形。


So what if the China doubters are right?	那么，如果中国怀疑论者是对的，情况会如何？


What if China’s economy does indeed come crashing down, with its growth rate plunging into low single digits, or even negative territory, as would be the case in most crisis economies?	如果中国经济确实正在走向崩溃，其增长如大部分危机经济体一样下降至极低水平乃至负区间，情况会如何？


China would suffer, of course, but so would an already-shaky global economy.	固然中国不好受，但已经岌岌可危的全球经济亦然。


With all the handwringing over the Chinese economy, it’s worth considering this thought experiment in detail.	在关于中国经济的重重绝望中，有必要详细思考这一思想实验。


For starters, without China, the world economy would already be in recession.	首先，没有中国，世界经济已经进入了衰退。


China’s growth rate this year appears set to hit 6.7% – considerably higher than most forecasters have been expecting.	今年中国经济增长率可能为6. 7%——比大部分预测家的预期显著更高。


According to the International Monetary Fund – the official arbiter of global economic metrics – the Chinese economy accounts for 17.3% of world GDP (measured on a purchasing-power-parity basis).	据全球经济指标官方“仲裁官”——国际货币基金组织（IMF），中国经济贡献世界GDP的17. 3%（以购买力平价衡量）。


A 6.7% increase in Chinese real GDP thus translates into about 1.2 percentage points of world growth.	如果没有中国，这一贡献需要从IMF向下修正的2016年世界GDP增长预测（3.


Absent China, that contribution would need to be subtracted from the IMF’s downwardly revised 3.1% estimate for world GDP growth in 2016, dragging it down to 1.9% – well below the 2.5% threshold commonly associated with global recessions.	1%）中剔除，将世界GDP增长率拉低至1. 9%——大大低于通常伴随全球衰退出现的阈值2.


Of course, that’s just the direct effect of a world without China.	当然，这只是没有中国的世界的直接影响。


Then there are cross-border linkages with other major economies.	接下来要考虑的是中国与其他主要经济体的跨国联系。


The so-called resource economies – namely, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Russia, and Brazil – would be hit especially hard.	所谓的资源经济体——即澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、俄罗斯和巴西——都将遭受重创。


As a resource-intensive growth juggernaut, China has transformed these economies, which collectively account for nearly 9% of world GDP.	作为资源密集型增长巨兽，中国改变了这些经济体，如今它们加起来占世界GDP的近9%。


While all of them argue that they have diversified economic structures that are not overly dependent on Chinese commodity demand, currency markets say otherwise: whenever China’s growth expectations are revised – upward or downward – their exchange rates move in tandem.	这些国家均声称经济结构已经实现多元化，不再过度依赖中国大宗商品需求，但货币市场情况表明并非如此：只要中国增长预期调整——不管向上还是向下——它们的汇率也会同步波动。


The IMF currently projects that these five economies will contract by a combined 0.7% in 2016, reflecting ongoing recessions in Russia and Brazil and modest growth in the other three.	IMF最近预测，2016年这五个经济体总计将收缩0. 7%，其中俄罗斯和巴西继续衰退，其他增长萎靡。


Needless to say, in a China implosion scenario, this baseline estimate would be revised downward significantly.	不消说，在中国崩溃的情景中，这一基线预测将大幅向下修正。


The same would be the case for China’s Asian trading partners – most of which remain export-dependent economies, with the Chinese market their largest source of external demand.	中国的亚洲贸易伙伴也是如此——它们大部分仍然是出口依赖型经济，中国市场是它们最大的外部需求源。


That is true not only of smaller Asian developing economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, but also of the larger and more developed economies in the region, such as Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.	不仅规模较小的亚洲发展中经济体是这样，如印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国等； 域内规模较大较发达的经济体也是这样，如日本、韩国和台湾。


Collectively, these six China-dependent Asian economies make up another 11% of world GDP.	这六个依赖中国的亚洲经济体加起来也占世界GDP的11%。


A China implosion could easily knock at least one percentage point off their combined growth rate.	中国崩溃至少会让它们的总增长率下降一个百分点。


The United States is also a case in point.	美国也无法独善其身。 中国是美国的第三大也是增长最快的出口市场。


China is America’s third-largest and most rapidly growing export market.	在中国崩溃情形中，这一出口需求将干涸——大约会将2016年美国经济增长率拉低0. 2—0.


In a China-implosion scenario, that export demand would all but dry up – knocking approximately 0.2-0.3 percentage points off already subpar US economic growth of around 1.6% in 2016.	3个百分点，而美国经济原本已相当疲软，预计增长率只有1. 6%左右。


Finally, there is Europe to consider.	最后来考虑欧洲。


Growth in Germany, long the engine of an otherwise sclerotic Continental economy, remains heavily dependent on exports.	长期以来，德国一直是独自支撑欧洲大陆的经济引擎，其增长仍严重依赖出口。


That is due increasingly to the importance of China – now Germany’s third-largest export market, after the European Union and the United States.	而中国的重要性越来越显著——现在它是德国第三大出口市场，仅次于欧盟和美国。


In a China implosion scenario, German economic growth could also be significantly lower, dragging down the rest of a German-led Europe.	在中国崩溃情形中，德国经济增长也将显著下降，拖累��他依靠德国拉动的欧洲国家。


Interestingly, in its just-released October update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF devotes an entire chapter to what it calls a China spillover analysis – a model-based assessment of the global impacts of a China slowdown.	有趣的是，在刚刚发布的《世界经济展望》10月份修订版中，IMF用了一整章内容进行所谓的中国溢出效应分析，即基于模型评估中国减速的全球影响。


Consistent with the arguments above, the IMF focuses on linkages to commodity exporters, Asian exporters, and what they call “systemic advanced economies” (Germany, Japan, and the US) that would be most exposed to a Chinese downturn.	与上面所罗列的观点类似，IMF重点关注中国与大宗商品出口国、亚洲出口国以及它所谓的“系统性发达经济体”（德国、日本和美国）的联系，这些国家最容易受到中国减速的波及。


By their reckoning, the impact on Asia would be the largest, followed closely by the resource economies; the sensitivity of the three developed economies is estimated to be about half that of China’s non-Japan Asian trading partners.	在IMF的分析中，亚洲受到的影响最大，其次是资源经济体； 三个发达经济体的敏感性预计为中国的日本以外的亚洲贸易伙伴的一半左右。


The IMF research suggests that China’s global spillovers would add about another 25% to the direct effects of China’s growth shortfall.	IMF研究表明，中国的全球溢出效应将让中国增长缺口的直接效应放大25%。 这意味着如果中国经济增长消失，那么根据我们的思想实验，总直接影响（全球增长下降1.


That means that if Chinese economic growth vanished into thin air, in accordance with our thought experiment, the sum of the direct effects (1.2 percentage points of global growth) and indirect spillovers (roughly another 0.3 percentage points) would essentially halve the current baseline estimate of 2016 global growth, from 3.1% to 1.6%.	2个百分点）和间接溢出效应（额外的0. 3个百分点）将让当前2016年全球增长基线估计值下降一半，3.


While that would be far short of the record 0.1% global contraction in 2009, it wouldn’t be much different than two earlier deep world recessions, in 1975 (1% growth) and 1982 (0.7%).	1%仍然相去甚远，但与1975年（增长1%）和1982年（0. 7%）两次深度世界衰退已经相当接近。


I may be one of the only China optimists left.	我大概是仅有的中国乐观论者。


While I am hardly upbeat about prospects for the global economy, I think the world faces far bigger problems than a major meltdown in China.	我很少对全球经济前景感到乐观，但我认为世界所面临的问题要比中国大崩溃严重得多。


Yet I would be the first to concede that a post-crisis world economy without Chinese growth would be in grave difficulty.	然而我将第一个承认危机后的世界经济没了中国增长将陷入巨大的困难。


China bears need to be careful what they wish for.	中国悲观论者需要对自己想要的结果三思。


The Return of Currency Wars	货币战争回归


NEW YORK – The recent decision by the Bank of Japan to increase the scope of its quantitative easing is a signal that another round of currency wars may be under way.	纽约—日本银行最近决定提高量化宽松范围，这表明新一轮货币战争可能已经箭在弦上。


The BOJ’s effort to weaken the yen is a beggar-thy-neighbor approach that is inducing policy reactions throughout Asia and around the world.	日本银行的日元贬值政策是一种以邻为壑策略，正在导致整个亚洲和全世界的政策反应。


Central banks in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand, fearful of losing competitiveness relative to Japan, are easing their own monetary policies – or will soon ease more.	中国、韩国、中国台湾、新加坡和泰国等地的央行担心丧失相对日本的竞争力，正在放松各自的货币政策——并且很快会加码放松。


The European Central Bank and the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, and a few Central European countries are likely to embrace quantitative easing or use other unconventional policies to prevent their currencies from appreciating.	欧洲央行和瑞士、瑞典、挪威以及一些中欧国家的央行也可能采取量化宽松或采用其他非常规政策阻止货币升值。


All of this will lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, as growth in the United States is picking up and the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will begin raising interest rates next year.	所有这些将导致美元升值，因为美国增长抬头和美联储表明将从明年开始提高利率。


But, if global growth remains weak and the dollar becomes too strong, even the Fed may decide to raise interest rates later and more slowly to avoid excessive dollar appreciation.	但是，如果全球增长保持疲软而美元表现出过度强劲，即使是美联储也可能决定延后和更加缓慢地升息以避免美元过度升值。


The cause of the latest currency turmoil is clear: In an environment of private and public deleveraging from high debts, monetary policy has become the only available tool to boost demand and growth.	新的货币战争动荡的根源很明确：在公共和私人部门从高债务状态去杠杆化的环境中，货币政策已成为唯一可行的刺激需求和增长的工具。


Fiscal austerity has exacerbated the impact of deleveraging by exerting a direct and indirect drag on growth.	财政紧缩产生直接和间接的增长拖累，放大了去杠杆化的影响。


Lower public spending reduces aggregate demand, while declining transfers and higher taxes reduce disposable income and thus private consumption.	公共支出缩减降低了总需求，而转移支付下降和税收升高降低了可支配收入，从而降低了私人消费。


In the eurozone, a sudden stop of capital flows to the periphery and the fiscal restraints imposed, with Germany’s backing, by the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, and the ECB have been a massive impediment to growth.	在欧元区，流向外围的资本流的突然中断以及欧盟、国际货币基金组织（IMF）和欧洲央行在德国的支持下所施加的财政约束已经形成了巨大的增长阻碍。


In Japan, an excessively front-loaded consumption-tax increase killed the recovery achieved this year.	在日本，过度前瞻（front-loaded）的消费税提升扼杀了去年实现的复苏。


In the US, a budget sequester and other tax and spending policies led to a sharp fiscal drag in 2012-2014.	在美国，预算自动减赤（sequester）和其他税收和支出政策导致了巨大的2012—2014年财政拖累。


And in the United Kingdom, self-imposed fiscal consolidation weakened growth until this year.	而在英国，自我施加的财政整合削弱了增长，直到今年才有所好转。


Globally, the asymmetric adjustment of creditor and debtor economies has exacerbated this recessionary and deflationary spiral.	放眼全球，债权经济体和债务经济体的不对称调整恶化了这一衰退和通缩螺旋。


Countries that were overspending, under-saving, and running current-account deficits have been forced by markets to spend less and save more.	过度支出、储蓄不足、存在经常项目赤字的国家受市场逼迫削减支出、增加储蓄。


Not surprisingly, their trade deficits have been shrinking.	毫不奇怪，它们的贸易赤字一直在减小。


But most countries that were over-saving and under-spending have not saved less and spent more; their current-account surpluses have been growing, aggravating the weakness of global demand and thus undermining growth.	但大部分过度储蓄、支出不足的国家并没有减少储蓄、增加支出； 它们的经常项目盈余一直在增加，加剧了全球需求的疲软，因而拖累增长。


As fiscal austerity and asymmetric adjustment have taken their toll on economic performance, monetary policy has borne the burden of supporting faltering growth via weaker currencies and higher net exports.	财政紧缩和不对称调整已经对经济表现产生了影响，因此货币政策承担了通过货币贬值和提高净出口支持弱势增长的重任。


But the resulting currency wars are partly a zero-sum game: If one currency is weaker, another currency must be stronger; and if one country’s trade balance improves, another’s must worsen.	但由此导致的货币战争在某种程度上是一个零和博弈：如果一种货币贬值，必有另一种货币升值； 如果一国贸易盈余改善，必有另一国贸易盈余恶化。


Of course, monetary easing is not purely zero-sum.	当然��货币宽松并非纯零和博弈。


Easing can boost growth by lifting asset prices (equities and housing), reducing private and public borrowing costs, and limiting the risk of a fall in actual and expected inflation.	宽松可以通过提升资产价格（股票和房地产）刺激增长、降低私人和公共借贷成本、限制实际和预期通胀下降。


Given fiscal drag and private deleveraging, lack of sufficient monetary easing in recent years would have led to double and triple dip recession (as occurred, for example, in the eurozone).	在财政拖累和私人去杠杆化的环境下，近几年来如果货币宽松不足，可能导致二次甚至三次探底（比如，欧元区就发生了这一幕）。