After all, in politics as in life, not everything a person believes needs to be shared publicly.	毕竟，和生活一样，在政治中，你并不需要把你所认为的东西都拿出来公开说。


But Obama did not stop there.	但奥巴马不止于此。


In the same interview, he declared that Saudi Arabia needs to learn to “share” the Middle East with its archrival Iran.	在同一个采访中，他宣称沙特阿拉伯需要学会与它的主要对手伊朗“共享”中东。


And he has been openly critical of the Kingdom’s treatment of women, arguing that “a country cannot function in the modern world when it is repressing half of its population.”	他还公开批评沙特王国对待妇女的方式，认为“一个压迫其一半人口的国家无法在现代世界立足。 ”


Overall, however, US officials remain meek in discussing Saudi Arabia.	但是，总体而言，美国官员在讨论沙特阿拉伯时仍然好言相向。


When they acknowledge “differences” with Saudi Arabia concerning how and where to fight terrorism, they sound like they are describing a disagreement between Roosevelt and Churchill about where precisely the Allies should strike Nazi Germany.	当他们承认与沙特阿拉伯在如何和哪里打击恐怖主义方面存在“不同”时，他们的语气就像是罗斯福和丘吉尔之间关于同盟国是否应该打击纳粹德国所存在的分歧。


In fact, the differences are huge, and many are rooted in the Kingdom’s internal attitudes and policies.	事实上，区别很大，而许多区别的根源在于沙特王国国内的态度和政策。


Consider, for example, Saudi Arabia’s approach to the Islamic State (ISIS) and, more broadly, to Sunni radicalism throughout the Arab world.	比如，以沙特阿拉伯对伊斯兰国或者更广泛的阿拉伯世界中的逊尼派激进主义的方针为例。


It is often alleged that the Saudis export terrorism.	常有人指责沙特人输出恐怖主义。


They don’t.	他们没有。


But what they have done is encourage their own radicals – a natural byproduct of Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia’s fundamentalist brand of Islam – to commit their terrorist acts elsewhere.	但他们的所作所为鼓励自身激进派——沙特阿拉伯的伊斯兰教原教旨主义派系瓦哈比派的天然副产品——在别国实施恐怖行动。


As the radicals leave, so does Saudi money, which funds their violent activities.	激进分子离开沙特也带走了沙特的资金，以支持他们的暴力行动。


During President George W. Bush’s administration, the US worked with the Saudis to track financial flows to radical groups and thus weaken such groups’ operations throughout the region, including in western Iraq.	在小布什总统执政期间，美国与沙特合作追踪流向激进组织的资金流，从而削弱这些组织在整个地区（包括伊拉克西部）的行动。


Their efforts brought some results.	这些努力带来了一些成果。


In fact, instead of congratulating itself for the supposed success of the US troop surge in Iraq in 2007, perhaps the Bush administration should have been touting the impact of that funding-focused initiative.	事实上，小布什政府与其自贺2007年增兵伊拉克貌似成功，不如坚持宣扬这一以资金为重点的做法的影响。


Unfortunately, the effort to interdict financial flows from Saudi Arabia weakened substantially after 2011, when parts of North Africa and the Middle East became engulfed in the so-called Arab Spring (a moniker that surely will be replaced with something both less cheerful and more accurate).	不幸的是，切断来自沙特阿拉伯的资金流的努力在2011年后大幅削弱。 当时北非和中东许多地方卷入了所谓的阿拉伯之春（这个名称显然将被某个不那么光彩但更准确的词汇取代）。


The chaos that ensued fueled the spread of radical Sunnism – a trend to which Saudi inattentiveness surely contributed.	随后产生的混乱助长了激进逊尼派的传播——沙特的漫不经心显然对这一趋势起到了推波助澜的作用。


And Saudi Arabia is unlikely to start paying attention now, when it is facing a perfect storm of problems, beginning with rock-bottom oil prices.	并且现在沙特阿拉伯也不可能开始关注这个问题，现在它正面临一场完美风暴，首先是石油价格触底。


Then there is conflict over the royal succession process, with King Salman’s effort to consolidate power in the hands of his aggressive and talented but not particularly popular 30-year-old son causing considerable upset within the extended royal family.	然后是皇位继承冲突，国王萨尔曼试图将权力巩固在他有魄力也有才干，但群众支持不太高的30岁的儿子手中，这导致庞大的皇室相当不快。


Iraq poses another problem for the Kingdom, as it sets an example of Shia consolidating political power.	伊拉克是沙特王国面临的另一个问题。 在伊拉克，什叶派正在巩固政治权力。


That example, the Saudis fear, could sustain political unrest in the Kingdom’s Shia-majority Eastern Province, where most of the country’s oil production is based.	沙特人担心，这个榜样将让沙特王国国内什叶派占多数的东部省的政治动荡局面维持下去，而东部省贡献了沙特大部分石油产量。


If Iraq’s government deepens ties with Iran, the risk to stability could be heightened further.	如果伊拉克政府深化其与伊朗的关系，那么稳定风险可能进一步加深。


For Saudi Arabia, these challenges are a higher priority than defeating ISIS, which accounts for the country’s virtual disappearance from the fight.	对沙特阿拉伯来说，这些挑战都比打击伊斯兰国更加紧迫，这解释了沙特在打击伊斯兰国的斗争中几乎看不见踪影。


Indeed, while many Saudis (not necessarily the elites) view ISIS as a barbaric movement with the potential eventually to harm their own country, they are willing, for the time being, to allow ISIS to continue its violent campaign.	事实上，尽管许多沙特人（未必是精英）将伊斯兰国视为野蛮的运动，有可能最终危及本国利益，但眼下他们愿意放任伊斯兰国继续开展暴力活动。


After all, for all the horrors seen in Paris, Brussels, and San Bernardino, the victims of ISIS have been, by and large, Shia.	毕竟，在巴黎、布鲁塞尔和圣贝纳迪诺等地的恐怖行动中，伊斯兰国的受害者基本上都是什叶派。


Now that the US has “cleared the air” with the Saudis, the real work must begin.	如今，美国已经与沙特“澄清了气氛”，真正的工作必须开始。


That means engaging in an honest conversation about the bilateral relationship, based on some acknowledgment of Wahhabism’s central role in the rise of Sunni radicalism throughout the region.	这意味着参与到关于双边关系的诚挚对话中，这一对话基于在一定程度上承认瓦哈比教义在整个地区的逊尼派激进主义崛起中起着核心作用。


Saudi Arabia can no longer be allowed to shift the blame – for example, to Iraq’s Shia-led government, for failing to reach out to the Sunni community.	不能再允许沙特阿拉伯转移没有触及逊尼派社区的指责矛头——比如转移给伊拉克的什叶派领导的政府。


It is the responsibility of all Saudis – and not just the royal family – to work harder to tamp down radicalism within their country’s borders and beyond.	更加努力地打击国内外激进主义是所有沙特人——而不仅仅是皇室——的责任。


The Secret Corporate Takeover	秘密公司接管


NEW YORK – The United States and the world are engaged in a great debate about new trade agreements.	纽约—美国和全世界正在进行一场关于新贸易协定的大争论。


Such pacts used to be called “free-trade agreements”; in fact, they were managed trade agreements, tailored to corporate interests, largely in the US and the European Union.	这些合约过去被称为“自由贸易协定”； 事实上，它们是有管理的贸易协定，专门为公司利益——主要是美国和欧盟公司——量身定制。


Today, such deals are more often referred to as “partnerships,”as in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).	如今，这些协议常常被称为“合作伙伴关系”，比如跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP）。


But they are not partnerships of equals: the US effectively dictates the terms.	但这个合作伙伴关系并不平等：美国实际操纵着协议条款。


Fortunately, America’s “partners” are becoming increasingly resistant.	幸运的是，美国的“合作伙伴”越来越抵制这一安排。


It is not hard to see why.	原因不难看清。


These agreements go well beyond trade, governing investment and intellectual property as well, imposing fundamental changes to countries’ legal, judicial, and regulatory frameworks, without input or accountability through democratic institutions.	这些协定范围远远超过了贸易，涉及到投资和知识产权的等问题，给各国的法律、司法和监管框架造成根本性影响，却没有民主机构的介入或问责。


Perhaps the most invidious – and most dishonest – part of such agreements concerns investor protection.	也许这些协定最不公平也最不诚实的部分就在于投资者保护方面。


Of course, investors have to be protected against the risk that rogue governments will seize their property.	当然，投资者必须得到保护免遭流氓政府窃取物权。


But that is not what these provisions are about.	但这些协定中的条款与此无关。


There have been very few expropriations in recent decades, and investors who want to protect themselves can buy insurance from the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, a World Bank affiliate (the US and other governments provide similar insurance).	最近几十年中极少发生没收物权的情况，且希望得到保护的投资者可以像世界银行下属机构多边投资担保局（Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency）购买保险，美国 和其他政府也提供类似的保险。


Nonetheless, the US is demanding such provisions in the TPP, even though many of its “partners” have property protections and judicial systems that are as good as its own.	尽管如此，美国要求在TPP中写入投资者保护条款，即使其许多“合作伙伴”的物权保护和司法制度与美国一样优秀。


The real intent of these provisions is to impede health, environmental, safety, and, yes, even financial regulations meant to protect America’s own economy and citizens.	这些条款的真实意图是阻挠旨在保护美国本国经济和公民的卫生、环境、安全以及——是的，甚至还有金融监管。


Companies can sue governments for full compensation for any reduction in their future expected profits resulting from regulatory changes.	公司可以起诉政府补偿监管变化所导致的未来预期利润的任何下降。


This is not just a theoretical possibility.	这不仅仅是一种理论可能。


Philip Morris is suing Uruguay and Australia for requiring warning labels on cigarettes.	菲利普莫里斯公司正在起诉乌拉圭和澳大利亚关于烟草警告标识的要求。


Admittedly, both countries went a little further than the US, mandating the inclusion of graphic images showing the consequences of cigarette smoking.	诚然，两国这方面的要求都比美国稍微严厉一些，要求标出吸烟后果的图片。


The labeling is working.	这一标识起了作用。


It is discouraging smoking.	它鼓励人们不去吸烟。


So now Philip Morris is demanding to be compensated for lost profits.	因此菲利普莫里斯公司要求补偿利润损失。


In the future, if we discover that some other product causes health problems (think of asbestos), rather than facing lawsuits for the costs imposed on us, the manufacturer could sue governments for restraining them from killing more people.	在未来，如果我们发现其他某些产品导致健康问题（比如石棉），制造商将不会面对关于我们所受损失的诉讼，反而可以起诉政府阻止它们杀害更多的人。


The same thing could happen if our governments impose more stringent regulations to protect us from the impact of greenhouse-gas emissions.	同理，如果我们的政府实施更加严格的监管以保护我们免受温室气体排放所造成的影响，也会出现相同的现象。


When I chaired President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, anti-environmentalists tried to enact a similar provision, called “regulatory takings.”	我在担任克林顿总统经济顾问委员会主席时，反环保主义者试图实行类似的规定，称之为“监管性征收”（regulatory takings）。


They knew that once enacted, regulations would be brought to a halt, simply because government could not afford to pay the compensation.	它们知道，这些规定一旦实施，监管将被叫停，因为政府无法承担补偿金。


Fortunately, we succeeded in beating back the initiative, both in the courts and in the US Congress.	幸运的是，我们成功地在法院和美国国会都挫败了这一图谋。


But now the same groups are attempting an end run around democratic processes by inserting such provisions in trade bills, the contents of which are being kept largely secret from the public (but not from the corporations that are pushing for them).	但如今，同一批人正在试图在贸易法案中插入类似条款——其内容大多对公众保密（但对推进这些条款的公司并不保密）——扼杀民主程序。


It is only from leaks, and from talking to government officials who seem more committed to democratic processes, that we know what is happening.	我们只能通过泄密以及对忠于民主程序的官员的言谈中获知正在发生什么。


Fundamental to America’s system of government is an impartial public judiciary, with legal standards built up over the decades, based on principles of transparency, precedent, and the opportunity to appeal unfavorable decisions.	美国政府制度的基石是公正的公共司法，几十年来，法律标准建立在透明、先例和就不利判决拥有上诉机会的原则之上。


All of this is being set aside, as the new agreements call for private, non-transparent, and very expensive arbitration.	如今，所有这些都被“靠边站”，新协定要求私下的、不透明的、极其昂贵的仲裁。


Moreover, this arrangement is often rife with conflicts of interest; for example, arbitrators may be a “judge” in one case and an advocate in a related case.	此外，这一安排常常涉及各种利益冲突； 比如，仲裁者可能在某个案子中是“法官”，而在另一个相关案子中是利益主张者。


The proceedings are so expensive that Uruguay has had to turn to Michael Bloomberg and other wealthy Americans committed to health to defend itself against Philip Morris.	诉讼程序代价昂贵，以至于乌拉圭不得不求助迈克尔·布隆伯格（Michael Bloomberg）和其他关注健康问题的美国富豪为自己辩护，对垒菲利普莫里斯公司。


And, though corporations can bring suit, others cannot.	此外，公司可以发起诉讼，其他人却不可以。


If there is a violation of other commitments – on labor and environmental standards, for example – citizens, unions, and civil-society groups have no recourse.	如果公司违反了其他承诺——如劳工问题和环境标准——公民、工会和公民社会团体无法诉诸法律。


If there ever was a one-sided dispute-resolution mechanism that violates basic principles, this is it.	如果说有什么单方面纠纷解决机制违反了基本原则的话，毫无疑问就是这种。


That is why I joined leading US legal experts, including from Harvard, Yale, and Berkeley, in writing a letter to congressional leaders explaining how damaging to our system of justice these agreements are.	因此，我与来自包括哈佛、耶鲁、伯克利的美国顶尖法律专家联名致信总统奥巴马，解释这些条款对我们的司法制度造成了怎样的伤害。


American supporters of such agreements point out that the US has been sued only a few times so far, and has not lost a case.	这些协定的美国支持者指出，到目前为止，美国被告的次数寥寥，并且从未输过官司。


Corporations, however, are just learning how to use these agreements to their advantage.	但是，公司只会从中学习如何利用这些协定为自己服务。


And high-priced corporate lawyers in the US, Europe, and Japan will likely outmatch the underpaid government lawyers attempting to defend the public interest.	而价格高昂的美国、欧洲和日本公司律师能力也可能胜过为公共利益而战的薪酬低下的政府律师。


Worse still, corporations in advanced countries can create subsidiaries in member countries through which to invest back home, and then sue, giving them a new channel to bloc regulations.	更糟糕的是，发达国家公司可以在成员国设立分支，通过这些分支回国投资然后起诉，以此作为规避监管的新方法。


If there were a need for better property protection, and if this private, expensive dispute-resolution mechanism were superior to a public judiciary, we should be changing the law not just for well-heeled foreign companies, but also for our own citizens and small businesses.	如果需要更好地保护物权，如果这一私下的、昂贵的纠纷解决机制压倒了公共司法，我们就应该修改法律，不仅面向财大气粗的外国公司，也是为了我们本国的公民和小企业。


But there has been no suggestion that this is the case.	但没有迹象表明会这样。


Rules and regulations determine the kind of economy and society in which people live.	规则和监管决定了人们生活在何种经济和社会。


They affect relative bargaining power, with important implications for inequality, a growing problem around the world.	它们影响相对议价力，对日益严重的全球性问题——不平等形成重要影响。


The question is whether we should allow rich corporations to use provisions hidden in so-called trade agreements to dictate how we will live in the twenty-first century.	问题在于我们是否应该允许财大气粗的公司用隐藏于所谓的贸易协定中的条款决定我们在二十一世纪中的生活。


I hope citizens in the US, Europe, and the Pacific answer with a resounding no.	我希望美国、欧洲和太平洋地区的公民果断地说“不”。


Make America Trade Again	让美国再次贸易


COPENHAGEN – No matter how much some US presidential candidates may deride free trade, it remains the backbone of the American economy.	哥本哈根——无论美国某些总统候选人如何嘲笑自由贸易，自由贸易仍然在美国占据着经济支柱地位。


Without it, the country would become significantly poorer and its global influence would diminish significantly.	没有自由贸易，美国会比现在贫穷得多，同时也会严重有损其国际影响力。


So why has bashing free trade become a key theme in this year’s presidential race?	那么抨击自由贸易为什么会成为本年度总统大选中的一个关键主题？


One of the clearest reasons for this is that economic anxiety is widespread in the United States, which is still reeling from the aftereffects of the 2008 financial crisis.	这种经济焦虑在美国广泛蔓延最明显的原因是美国仍然没有摆脱2008年金融危机后遗症。


Too many Americans are working fewer hours and earning less than they once did.	太多美国人的工作时间和收入明显少于过去。


They are tired of the status quo, and the presidential candidates are right to address their concerns.	他们对现状感到厌倦，而总统候选人应当合理关注他们的问题。


But introducing protectionist measures is a quack cure that would solve nothing; on the contrary, it would only exacerbate the economy’s problems.	但引入贸易保护主义举措却是一种庸医疗法，解决不了任何问题； 恰恰相反，这样做只会进一步恶化经济。


Free trade is not a liability for the US economy; it is a necessity.	自由贸易不是美国经济的负债； 而是美国发展的必须。


The US has negotiated free-trade agreements with 20 countries.	美国已经与20国谈判完成了自由贸易协议。


And though these countries represent only 10% of the rest of the world economy, in recent years they have purchased nearly half of all US exports.	尽管这些国家仅占除美国以外世界经济总量的10%，但近年来它们已经采购了将近半数的美国出口。


Furthermore, free trade benefits working-class families and low-income groups.	此外，自由贸易能够惠及工薪阶层家庭和低收入群体。


Surges in cheap imports have greatly increased US workers’ spending power.	廉价进口产品激增大幅增加了美国工人的购买力。


One study calculated that the American median-income earner would lose 29% of his or her purchasing power if the country were to be closed to trade; the poorest in the US would forfeit as much as 62% of their purchasing power.	一项研究显示如果封锁自由贸易，美国中等收入阶层将丧失29%的购买力； 而美国最贫困人口将丧失高达62%的购买力。


The US is in a unique position to reap the benefits of free trade, so its leaders are right to be working to secure trade agreements with the world’s most important economic regions – Europe and Asia.	美国在收获自由贸易的好处时地位独特，因此其领导人与世界最重要的经济地区（包括欧洲和亚洲）签署贸易协议是正确之举。


The proposed trade deal with the European Union (the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP) would boost US exports to the EU by $300 billion annually, adding $125 billion to America’s annual GDP.	拟议中的与欧盟贸易协定（跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系，或者叫TTIP）将使美国对欧盟的出口每年增长3，000亿美元，令美国增加1250亿美元的年度GDP。


It would also increase the typical American family’s purchasing power by nearly $900.	这项协议还可以增加近900美元的典型美国家庭购买力。


Europeans would reap similar gains; that is the nature of mutually beneficial free-trade agreements.	欧洲人也将获得类似的收益； 这就是互惠互利的自由贸易协定的本质。


American workers, farmers, and businesses are also positioned to benefit greatly from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement with Asia.	美国工人、农民和企业也能从跨太平洋贸易伙伴关系协议（TPP）中显著受益。


Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region maintain steep barriers against imports from the US.	许多亚太国家对美国进口商品都保持着很高的壁垒。


The TPP would lower tariffs and allow consumers in Asia to buy more US products.	TPP能降低关税并允许亚洲消费者购买更多美国产品。


This could, according to research conducted by the Peterson Institute, boost US incomes by 0.4% – roughly $77 billion a year.	按照彼得森国际经济研究所进行的研究，这可以让美国收入增长0. 4%——相当于每年770亿美元。


To be sure, free trade is not trouble-free.	可以肯定，自由贸易并不是毫无问题。


The costs often are very focused, while the benefits are more widely dispersed.	代价往往都非常集中，而收益则呈现广泛分布。


And the negative consequences can be very concrete; competition from Mexico can force US workers to accept a wage cut or cause their workplaces to be relocated across the border.	负面效果可能非常具体； 来自墨西哥的竞争能迫使美国工人接受减薪或导致工厂迁往墨西哥境内。


What Americans need are political leaders with the courage to pursue a balanced approach to free trade, championing its long-term benefits, while delivering short-term relief to those at risk of displacement.	美国需要有勇气推行平衡自由贸易方式的政治领袖，他们应当在倡导自由贸易长期利益的同时短期救济受损群体。


For example, US legislators could ease economic anxiety by allocating more resources to retraining schemes and job programs.	比方说，美国立法者可以通过为再培训及就业计划划拨更多资源来缓解人们在经济上的忧虑。


Concluding the trade deals now on the table with Asia and Europe would not only demonstrate political leadership; it would also underline the US’s commitment to preserving the international order.	现在与亚洲和欧洲签署贸易协定不仅可以彰显政治领导地位； 还可以凸显美国维护国际秩序的决心。


Speaking as a former NATO secretary general and former prime minister of a longstanding American ally, I urge the US presidential candidates to stop bashing free trade and begin working toward a balanced approach, one that eases economic anxiety while ensuring American prosperity in the decades to come.	身为前北约秘书长及美国长期盟国的前总理，我敦促美国总统候选人停止抨击自由贸易，并开始制定既能缓和经济忧虑又能在未来几十年确保美国繁荣的贸易平衡策略。


America does not need to be made “great again.”	美国不需要“再次成为伟大的国家”。


It remains the world’s preeminent power, because it has the world’s preeminent economy.	它依然是世界最杰出的力量，因为它拥有世界最杰出的经济。


The challenge facing America is to ensure that its greatness lasts far into the future.	美国所面临的挑战是确保这种伟大不会在未来消失。


And doing so will require coupling its longstanding pursuit of free trade with policies addressing the very real needs of the small number of Americans for whom the costs outweigh the benefits.	实现这一目标需要将长期推行自由贸易与满足少数成本大于收益的美国人非常真实的需求结合在一起。


New and Improved Trade Agreements?	改进的新贸易协定？


WASHINGTON, DC – Trade is high on the agenda in the United States, Europe, and much of Asia this year.	华盛顿—今年，贸易使美国、欧洲和亚洲大部分国家的重点议程。


In the US, where concern has been heightened by weak recent trade numbers, President Barack Obama is pushing for Congress to give him Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), previously known as fast-track authority, to conclude the mega-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with 11 Asian and Latin American countries.	在美国，疲软的贸易数据引起了巨大的关注，总统奥巴马正在敦促国会授予其贸易促进权（Trade Promotion Authority，TPA，即此前的快速通道授权）完成与11个亚洲和拉美国家的规模庞大的地区级跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP）。


Without TPA, trading partners refrain from offering their best concessions, correctly fearing that Congress would seek to take “another bite of the apple” when asked to ratify any deal.	没有TPA，贸易伙伴国就不会做出最佳让步，它们正确地担心国会将在批准一切协议时都试图“多咬一口”。


In marketing the TPP, Obama tends to emphasize some of the features that distinguish it from earlier pacts such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).	在兜售TPP时，奥巴马总是强调TPP与此前的契约，如北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）的区别。


These include commitments by Pacific countries on the environment and the expansion of enforceable labor rights, as well as the geopolitical argument for America’s much-discussed strategic “rebalancing” toward Asia.	这些区别包括太平洋国家对环境和扩大可强制实施劳动权利的承诺，以及正在美国受到热议的亚洲战略性“再平衡”的地缘政治考虑。


As with consumer products, the slogan “New and improved!” sells.	至于消费品，“改进型新产品”的口号相当有市场。


NAFTA and other previous trade agreements are unpopular.	NAFTA和此前的其他贸易协定并不受支持。


So the Obama administration’s argument is apparently, “We have learned from our mistakes.	因此奥巴马政府的观点很明确，“我们从我们的错误中汲取教训。


This agreement will fix them.”	这一协定会解决问题。 ”


But the premise is wrong: The previous agreements did benefit the US (and its partners).	但前提就错了。 此前的协定确实有利于美国（及其贸易伙伴）。


The most straightforward argument for TPP is that similar economic benefits are likely to follow.	TPP最直接的支持观点就是可能带来类似的经济好处。


The economic arguments for the gains from trade of course go back to David Ricardo’s classic theory of comparative advantage.	从贸易中获得好处的经济理论当然可以追溯到李嘉图（David Ricardo）经典的比较优势理论。


Countries benefit most from producing and exporting what they are relatively best at producing and exporting, and from importing what other countries are relatively better at producing.	国家应该生产和出口它们相对最擅长生产和出口的东西、进口其他国家相对更擅长生产的东西中，这样所获得的好处最多。


Moreover, trade boosts productivity, which is why exporters pay higher wages than other companies, on average – an estimated 18% higher in the case of US manufacturing.	此外，贸易刺激生产率，因此平均而言出口商的工资高于其他企业——对美国 制造业而言，要高出18%。


And the purchasing power of income is enhanced by households’ opportunity to consume lower-priced imported goods.	而收入的购买力也因为家庭有机会消费价格更低的进口品而得到了加强。


The cost savings are especially large for food and clothing, purchases that account for a higher proportion of lower-income and middle-class households’ spending.	成本节约效应对食品和衣着来说尤其显著，而这两样东西占较低收入和中产阶级家庭支出的比重更大。


American trade debates have long been framed by the question of whether a policy will increase or reduce the number of jobs.	长期以来，美国贸易争论的核心是某项政策会增加还是减少就业数量。


This concern is a first cousin to the old mercantilist focus on whether a policy will improve or worsen the trade balance.	这一关注点是昔日的重商主义观点的近亲——一项政策会改善还是恶化贸易平衡。


A “mercantilist” could be defined as someone who believes that gains go only to the country that enjoys a higher trade surplus, mirrored by losses for the trading partner that runs a correspondingly higher deficit.	“重商主义者”可以定义为相信只有贸易盈余较高的国家才能受益的观点的人，反之，因此出现较高贸易赤字的贸易伙伴蒙受损失。


Even by this sort of reasoning, one could make an “American” case for the ongoing trade negotiations.	哪怕是从这一逻辑出发，你也可以找出正在进行的贸易谈判的“美国”利好。


The US market is already rather open; TPP participants such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Japan have higher tariff and non-tariff barriers against some products that the US would like to be able to sell them than the US does against their goods.	美国市场已经相当开放； TPP参与国，如越南、马来西亚和日本等，它们针对一些美国有可能能够卖给它们的商品所施加的关税和非关税壁垒比美国对它们所提供的商品所施加的壁垒更大。


Liberalization would thus benefit US exports to Asia more than Asian exports to the US.	因此，自由化给美国对亚洲出口带来的好处要多于亚洲对美国出口。


The late 1990s offer a good illustration of how trade theory works in the real world.	20世纪90年代末很好地说明了贸易理论在现实世界中的作用。


The volume of trade increased rapidly, owing partly to NAFTA in 1994 and the establishment in 1995 of the World Trade Organization as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.	贸易量迅速增长，部分是因为1994年签署了NAFTA和1995年成立世界贸易组织取代关贸总协定。


For the US during this period, imports grew more rapidly than exports.	对这一时期的美国来说，进口增长快于出口。


But the widening of the trade deficit had no negative effect on output and employment.	但贸易赤字的扩大并没有对产出和就业造成消极影响。 1996—2000年，真实（经通胀调整的）GDP增长平均为4.


Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth averaged 4.3% during 1996-2000, productivity increased by 2.5% per year, and workers received their share of those gains as real compensation per hour rose at a 2.2% annual pace.	3%，生产率每年提高2. 5%，其中工人所获的好处——每小时真实报酬增长率为每年2.


The unemployment rate fell below 4% – as low as it goes – by the end of 2000.	2%。 2000年底，失业率下降到4%以下。


A stronger trade balance in the late 1990s would not have added to output growth or job creation, which were running at full throttle.	在20世纪90年代末，贸易平衡强化不会带来产出增长或就业创造——它们已经达到了马力全开的成都。


Further increases in net export demand would have been met only by attracting workers away from the production of something else.	净出口需求的进一步增加只能通过吸引从事其他部门生产的工人来满足。


That is why the gains from trade took the form of bidding up real wages, rather than further increasing the number of jobs.	因此，从贸易中所得到的好处以哄抬真实工资的形式而非进一步增加就业数量的形式出现。


Admittedly, it is harder to make the case for freer trade – particularly for unilateral liberalization – when unemployment is high and output is below potential, as was true in the aftermath of the financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009.	诚然，当失业率高企、产出低于潜在水平时——就像2007—2009年金融危机后的情景那样——要支持自由贸易就变得更加困难，特别是单边自由化。


Under such circumstances, there is a kernel of truth to mercantilist logic: trade surpluses contribute to GDP and employment, coming at the expense of deficit countries.	在这样的背景下，就出现了重商主义逻辑的核心：贸易盈余有利于GDP和就业，而付出代价的是赤字国。


Of course, if one country erects import barriers, its trading partners are likely to retaliate with “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies of their own, leaving everyone worse off.	当然，如果一国树立进口壁垒，其贸易伙伴国可能报之以本国的“以邻为壑”政策，让所有人都受到损失。


That is why the case for multilateral renunciation of protectionism is as strong in recessionary conditions as ever.	因此，共同放弃保护主义是最重要的必要条件。


In response to the 2008-2009 global recession, for example, G-20 leaders agreed to refrain from new trade barriers.	比如，为了应对2008—2009年全球衰退，G-20领导人同意绝不采取新的贸易壁垒。


Contrary to many cynical predictions, Obama and his counterparts successfully fulfilled this commitment, avoiding a repeat of the debacle caused in the 1930s by America’s introduction of import tariffs.	与许多怀疑派的预计相反，奥巴马及其他国家领导人成功兑现了这一承诺，没有重蹈20世纪30年代美国实施进口关税、导致全球贸易崩溃的覆辙。


In any case, mercantilist logic is no longer relevant.	无论如何，重商主义逻辑已不再重要。


The US unemployment rate has fallen well below 6% – not quite full employment, but close.	美国失业率已经下降到6%以下——虽然没有达到充分就业，但也距离不远了。


If output and employment were rising this year as rapidly as in 2014, the Federal Reserve would probably have felt the need to start raising interest rates as early as this June.	如果今年产出和就业增长和2014年一样快，美联储可能认为有必要最早从今年6月开始升息。


As it is, the Fed will almost certainly delay raising rates for a while longer.	从目前的情况看，美联储几乎肯定会将升息决定推迟一段时间。


If trade deals do boost US exports more than imports, the Fed will probably have to put a brake on the economy that much sooner.	如果贸易协议对美国出口的刺激作用确实大于进口，美联储也许不得不大大提前给经济踩刹车。


But the bottom line is that if the US can boost auto exports to Malaysia, agricultural exports to Japan, and service exports to Vietnam, real wages will be bid upward more than by the creation of more jobs.	但底线是如果美国能够刺激对马来西亚的汽车出口、对日本的农产品出口和对越南的服务出口，那么真实工资增长将快于就业创造。


That is why, if it is allowed to proceed, the TPP will, like past trade deals, help put real median US incomes back on a rising trend.	因此，如果获得通过，TPP将像过去的贸易协议一样让美国中位家庭走上上升之路。


America’s Education Bubble	美国的教育泡沫


SAN FRANCISCO – One of the fundamental purposes of government is to advance important public goods.	旧金山—政府的一个基本职能是推进重要公共品的供给。


But, if not handled carefully, the pursuit of significant social goals can have unfortunate economic and financial consequences, sometimes even leading to systemic disruptions that undermine more than just the goals themselves.	但是，如果处理不当，对重大社会目标的追求可能导致不幸的经济和金融后果，有时甚至带来系统性破坏，受影响的将不只是目标本身。


This happened a decade ago in the United States, with the effort to expand home ownership.	十年前美国就发生过这样的事——扩大住房所有权的政策。


It has been playing out more recently in China, following an initiative to broaden stock-market participation.	更近一些有中国——股市扩容政策。


And it could happen again in the US, this time as the result of an attempt to improve access to funding for higher education.	如今，美国可能再次发生这样的事——这次是改善高等教育融资的措施。


In the first case, the US government eagerly supported efforts to make mortgages more affordable and accessible, including the creation of all sorts of “exotic” lending vehicles.	在第一个例子中，美国政府急切地支持让按揭更廉价、更便利的措施，包括创造各种“有毒”贷款载体。


The approach worked, but a little too well.	这一方法起到了效果，但效果有些太好了。


The surge in debt-enabled demand drove up real-estate prices, while banks’ greater willingness to lend led many people to purchase homes they couldn’t afford.	债务驱动的需求抬高了房地产价格，而银行更愿意贷款导致许多人买了根本负担不起的房子。


The collapse of the subsequent bubble – a major contributor to the 2008 global financial crisis – nearly tipped the world economy into a multi-year depression.	洗后泡沫破裂，成为2008年全球金融危机的重要原因，也几乎让世界经济陷入多年萧条。


In China’s case, the government hoped that broader stock-market participation – achieved through efforts to bolster equity prices and promote lending for investment – would make citizens more open to pro-market reforms.	在中国的例子中，政府希望更多的人参与股市——其手段是提振股价、促进贷款投资——能让公民更容易接受市场改革。


Again, the approach proved too effective, and a bubble formed.	这一方法也起到了过佳的效果，形成了一个泡沫。


Now, the government is trying to counter the risk of a disorderly deleveraging that would damage the Chinese economy and produce significant knock-on effects for the rest of the world.	如今，政府正在遏制无序去杠杆的风险。 无序去杠杆有可能危害中国经济，给世界其他地区带来巨大的连锁反应。


America’s effort to expand access to student loans – a fundamentally good initiative, aimed at enabling more people to pursue higher education – carries similar risks.	美国扩大学生贷款受理面的措施——从根本上说是一项好措施，它的目标是让更多人能够接受高等教育——也带来了类似的风险。


Fortunately, there is still time to do something about it.	幸运的是，现在还有时间遏制这一风险。


No one doubts that investment in education is vital.	没人怀疑教育投资的重要性。


Numerous studies have shown major returns for individuals and societies alike.	无数研究表明，教育投资能带来巨大的个人和社会回报。


Higher levels of educational attainment improve overall economic wellbeing and prosperity, lower retirement burdens, and enhance social mobility and satisfaction.	提高教育程度能改善总体经济福祉和繁荣、降低退休负担、增强社会流动性和满意度。


The unemployment rate for college graduates in the US, at 2.5%, is roughly one-third the rate for those without a high school diploma.	美国本科生失业率为2. 5%，大概只有无高中文凭群体失业率的三分之一。


What policymakers must determine is how to invest in education in ways that maximize these benefits, without creating new risks.	决策者必须决定如何以收益最大化而不产生新风险的方法投资教育。


This is where the US risks falling short.	美国在这方面可能存在不足。


Over the last ten years, the combination of higher tuition fees, more student enrollment, and greater reliance on loans has caused the stock of outstanding student debt nearly to triple.	过去十年来，学费的提高、学生人数的增加以及对贷款依赖性的增长导致学生债务存量翻了近三倍。 如今学生债务存量高达1.


It now stands at well over $1.2 trillion, more than 60% of which is held by the bottom quartile of households (those with a net worth of less than $8,500).	2万亿美元，其中超过60%由收入最低的四分之一家庭（即净财富少于8,500美元的家庭）承担


Today, seven out of ten post-secondary students graduate with debt, with the total volume exceeding debt from credit cards and auto loans combined.	如今，七成高中及以上学生毕业时身背负债，其总额已经超过了信用卡债务和汽车贷款的总和。


Moreover, student loans constitute 45% of federally owned financial assets.	此外，学生贷款占了联邦所有金融资产的45%。


Making matters worse, the return on investment in education is falling, because the economy is growing slowly and changing rapidly, making it difficult for some graduates to secure employment that takes advantage of their knowledge and skills.	更糟糕的是，教育投资回报在降低，因为经济增长变慢，变化变快，这导致一些毕业生没办法保证获得能用上他们的知识和技能的就业岗位。


Universities are often slow to adapt their curricula to the economy’s needs, while new technologies and business models are exacerbating the winner-take-all phenomenon.	大学的课程调整常常滞后于经济的需要，而新技术和商业模式则加剧了赢家通吃现象。


If the return on investment in education continues to decline, the servicing of student loans will tend to crowd out other consumption and investment outlays, especially given that student debt has considerable seniority in the capital structure.	如果教育投资回报继续下降，那么维持学生贷款将挤出其他消费和投资项，特别是在学生贷款拥有很高的资本结构地位的情况下。


In this scenario, the risks of default and delinquency would rise, along with financial insecurity and general instability, all of which would exacerbate the inequality trifecta (income, wealth, and opportunity).	在这一情景中，违约和违法风险将会上升，金融不安全和总体不稳定的风险亦然，所有这些都会加剧“不稳定性三驾马车”（收入、财富和机会）。


The good news is that, though some 10% of borrowers already face repayment problems, the macroeconomic and financial tipping points remain some way off.	好消息是，尽管大约10%的借款人已经面临偿还问题，但宏观经济和金融引爆点距离尚远。


But this is no excuse for complacency; it merely provides time for a concerted effort to implement measures that will ameliorate the destructive trends stemming from student loans.	但这绝不是自满的理由； 这只是为我们提供了时间采取措施遏制源自学生贷款的破坏性趋势。


First and foremost, US politicians need to take full responsibility for economic governance, seeking not only to boost growth, but also to avert a reduction in long-term growth potential.	首先也是最重要的，美国政客需要承担起经济治理的全部责任，不但要设法提振增长，也要防止长期增长潜力下降。


After depending on unconventional monetary policy for far too long, the US Congress needs to adopt a more comprehensive approach, with measures aimed at improving worker training and retooling, modernizing education curricula, and incorporating transformational technologies more effectively into the economy.	美国国会在过长的时间里过于依赖非常规货币政策，它需要采取更加全面的方针，实施旨在改进工人培训和再学习、实现教育课程现代化以及更有效地将革命性技术融入经济的措施。


Increased infrastructure investment, better corporate-tax policies, and an updated budgetary approach are also needed.	增加基础设施投资、改良公司税政策、升级预算方针都是应有之义。


For their part, universities – which have benefited considerably from the wide availability of student loans – should rein in their costs, while offering more direct financial aid funded through philanthropy.	大学因为学生贷款的普及而获益良多，它们应该削减成本，同时通过慈善业提供更加直接的金融援助。


Some universities have already adopted “no loan” policies; students’ demonstrated financial need is met entirely with grants financed by the university and other donors.	一些大学已经采取了“无贷款”政策； 学生只要证明有金融需要，就能从大学和其他出资人手中获得全部所需融资。


Not all universities need to go this far – and most can’t, because they lack large enough endowments to cover the costs.	并非所有大学都要走到这一步——大部分大学没有这个财力，因为它们缺少足够大规模的捐赠基金覆盖成本。


But a broader move in the direction of non-debt financing of higher education is needed.	但我们需要朝高等教育无贷款融资迈出更大的步伐。


Efforts could also be made to encourage households to save more, starting earlier, for education.	还应该鼓励家庭提前为教育增加储蓄。


Student loan disclosures should be made more transparent, thereby enabling applicants to make responsible decisions, with lower-cost two-year community colleges serving as a useful stepping stone to a traditional college education.	学生贷款披露应该更加透明，从而让申请者做出负责任的决定，以成本更低的两年制社区学院作为传统大学教育的有用的垫脚石。


And more could be done to expand income-based repayment schemes.	在扩大基于收入的偿还机制方面也可以做得更多。


None of these measures will be easy.	所有这些措施都不容易。


But if implementation continues to lag behind realities on the ground, the challenges will be far greater down the road.	但如果它们继续落后于现实，挑战将更加艰巨。


As borrowers’ growing debt burdens limit their financial flexibility and productive contribution to the economy, the policy emphasis will shift from mitigating future risks to reducing indebtedness directly through loan forgiveness and bailouts.	借款人债务负担日益沉重，这限制了他们的金融灵活性和对经济的生产贡献，因此，政策重点应该从降低未来风险转向直接通过贷款豁免和援助降低负债。


That would raise thorny issues of fairness and misaligned incentives, and could ultimately have the perverse effect of reducing educational access.	这将带来棘手的公平性和激励不匹配问题，最终可能造成教育普及度降低的恶性效果。


Afghanistan’s Unavoidable Partition	阿富汗不可避免的分裂


NEW DELHI – The United States, still mired in a protracted war in Afghanistan that has exacted a staggering cost in blood and treasure, will formally open peace talks with the Taliban, its main battlefield opponent, in the coming days (apparently despite last-minute opposition from Afghan President Hamid Karzai).	新德里——深陷于旷日持久阿富汗战争的美国付出了惊人的生命财产代价，并将在未来日子里（不顾阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊最后时刻的反对）正式与主要战争对手塔利班启动和谈进程。


With the US determined to withdraw its forces after more than a decade of fighting, the talks in Doha, Qatar, are largely intended to allow it to do so “honorably.”	因为已经决定在十余年战争后撤出部队，在卡塔尔首都多哈举行的谈判主要是让美国人“体面地”撤离。


How the end of US-led combat operations shapes Afghanistan’s future will affect the security of countries nearby and beyond.	如何结束以美国为首的作战行动既决定阿富汗的未来也影响周边及其他国家的安全局势。


Here the most important question is whether the fate of Afghanistan, which was created as a buffer between Czarist Russia and British India, will be – or should be – different from that of Iraq and Libya (two other imperial creations where the US has intervened militarily in recent years).	此处最重要的问题是曾扮演沙俄及英属印度间缓冲地带的阿富汗的命运会不会（或该不该）与伊拉克和利比亚（近年来美国干预的另外两个帝国产物）的命运有任何不同。


Foreign military intervention can effect regime change, but it evidently cannot reestablish order based on centralized government.	外国军事干预可以改朝换代，但显然不能重建中央政府控制的国内秩序。


Iraq has been partitioned in all but name into Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish regions, while Libya seems headed toward a similar tripartite, tribal-based territorial arrangement.	伊拉克除名义外已分成什叶、逊尼和库尔德三块区域，而利比亚似乎也正走向类似的三方部落领土安排。


In Afghanistan, too, an Iraq-style “soft” partition may be the best possible outcome.	同样，像伊拉克那样的“软性”分裂或许是阿富汗可能面临的最佳结果。


Afghanistan’s large ethnic groups already enjoy de facto autonomy, which they secured after their Northern Alliance played a central role in the US-led ouster of the Taliban from power in late 2001.	阿富汗的主要部族已经享受现实自治，这是他们的北方联盟凭借2001年底协助美国将塔利班政府赶下台所换来的。


Having enjoyed virtual self-rule since then, they will fiercely resist falling back under the sway of the Pashtuns, who have ruled the country for most of its history.	因为从那时起就享受现实自治，他们会拼死抗拒重新落入历史上统治阿富汗的普什图人的控制之下。


For their part, the Pashtuns, despite their tribal divisions, will not be content with control of a rump Afghanistan consisting of its current eastern and southeastern provinces.	普什图人尽管内部存在部族分歧，但仍不满于仅控制包括目前阿富汗东部及东南部省份在内的残余领土。


They will eventually seek integration with fellow Pashtuns in Pakistan, across the British-drawn Durand Line – a border that Afghanistan has never recognized.	他们终将跨越英制杜兰德线与巴基斯坦的普什图人实现汇合，这条英制边境线从来就没有被阿富汗人承认过。


The demand for a “Greater Pashtunistan” would then challenge the territorial integrity of Pakistan (itself another artificial imperial construct).	“大普什图”情结因此将会威胁巴基斯坦（其本身就是另一个人工帝国构造）的领土完整。


The fact that Afghanistan’s ethnic groups are concentrated in distinct geographical zones would simplify partition and make the resulting borders more likely to last, unlike those drawn by colonial officials, who invented countries with no national identity or historical roots.	阿富汗族群聚居于独立的地理区域令分治变得简单，由此划定的边境线也有可能长期存在，这与殖民官员凭空绘制的没有民族认同感或历史起源的边境线有着本质的区别。


Indeed, both geographically and demographically, Afghanistan’s non-Pashtun groups account for more than half of the country, with Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras alone making up close to 50% of the population.	实际上，阿富汗非普什图人无论从地理还是人口方面都占到半数以上，光是塔吉克族、乌兹别克族和哈扎拉族就占总人口的近50%。


After waging the longest war in its history, at a cost of tens of thousands of lives and nearly a trillion dollars, the US is combat-weary and financially strapped.	发动有史以来最长一场战争，牺牲成千上万人的生命并付出近万亿美元的代价后，美国现在厌战心切、财政拮据。


But the American effort to cut a deal with the Pashtun-based, Pakistan-backed Taliban is stirring deep unease among the non-Pashtun groups, which suffered greatly under the Taliban and its five-year rule.	但美国力求与巴基斯坦支持的普什图族塔利班达成交易的做法激起了曾在塔利班五年执政时深受迫害的非普什图群体的深深不安。


(The historically persecuted Hazaras, for example, suffered several large-scale massacres.)	（比方说历史上一直受到迫害的哈扎拉人就曾数次遭到大规模屠杀）。


While Karzai has been fickle, to say the least, about cooperation with the Americans (indeed, he has since backed away from participation in the Doha talks), the rupture of his political alliance with non-Pashtun leaders has also fueled ethnic polarization.	虽然说得再客气卡尔扎伊也是一贯善变，但单就同美国人合作这件事上，他与非普什图族领导人政治联盟的破裂也助长了种族极化情绪。


Some non-Pashtun power brokers continue to support Karzai, but many others are now leading the opposition National Front.	某些非普什图族权力掮客继续支持卡尔扎伊，但也有很多人现在领导反对派国民阵线。


These leaders are unlikely to accept any power-sharing arrangement that includes the Taliban.	这些领导人不太可能接受任何包括塔利班的权力分治。


In fact, they suspect that Karzai’s ultimate goal is to restore Pashtun dominance throughout Afghanistan.	实际上，他们怀疑恢复阿富汗全境的普什图优势是卡尔扎伊的最终目的。


Their misgivings have been strengthened by the “Peace Process Roadmap to 2015,” a document prepared by the Karzai-constituted Afghan High Peace Council that sketches several potential concessions to the Taliban and Pakistan, ranging from the Taliban’s recognition as a political party to a role for Pakistan in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.	由卡尔扎��阿富汗高级和平委员会起草的一份名为《2015年和平进程路线图》的文件拟定了对塔利班和巴基斯坦的若干让步，从承认塔利班政党地位到允许巴基斯坦参与阿富汗内部事务，进一步加深了非普什图人的疑虑。


The roadmap even dangles the carrot of cabinet posts and provincial governorships to prominent Taliban figures.	该路线图甚至用内阁及省长职位来诱惑塔利班的知名人物。


The most serious problem today is that the country’s ethnic tensions and recriminations threaten to undermine the cohesion of the fledgling, multiethnic Afghan Army.	今天最严重的问题是紧张的种族关系和相互指责可能破坏新生多民族阿富汗军队的凝聚力。


Indeed, the splits today resemble those that occurred when Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, an exit that led to civil war and the Taliban’s eventual capture of the capital, Kabul.	事实上，今天的分裂像极了1989年苏军撤离阿富汗时的状况，那次撤军直接导致内战和塔利班最终攻克首都喀布尔。


This time, the non-Pashtun communities are better armed and prepared to defend their interests after the US withdrawal.	这一次非普什图群体武器更为精良，已经做好准备在美军撤离后捍卫自身的利益。


Thus, in seeking to co-opt the Taliban, the US is not only bestowing legitimacy on a thuggish militia; it also risks unwittingly reigniting Afghanistan’s ethnic strife, which would most likely tear the country apart for good.	因此美国收编塔利班不仅会使凶残的民兵组织合法化，还冒着危险重燃可能永久撕裂国家的种族冲突。


This raises a fundamental question: Is Afghanistan’s territorial unity really essential for regional or international security?	这提出了一个根本性的问题：阿富汗的领土统一是否对区域或国际安全至关重要？


To be sure, the sanctity of existing borders has become a powerful norm in world politics.	可以肯定，现有边界的神圣性已成为世界政治的有力规则。


Yet this norm has permitted the emergence of ungovernable and unmanageable states, whose internal wars spill across international boundaries, fueling regional tensions and insecurity.	但这种规则导致无法治理的国家出现，其国内战争跨越国际边境，为区域紧张和不安全局势火上浇油。


With a war-exhausted US having run out of patience, outside forces are in no position to prevent Afghanistan’s partition along Iraqi (or even post-Yugoslav) lines, with the bloodiest battles expected to rage over control of ethnically mixed strategic areas, including Kabul.	随着厌战的美国逐渐失去耐心，外部势力已无法阻止阿富汗沿伊拉克（甚至后南斯拉夫）边境发生分裂，最血腥的战争可能出现在喀布尔等民族混居的战略地带。


In this scenario, Pakistani generals, instead of continuing to sponsor Afghan Pashtun militant groups (like the Taliban and their allies like the Haqqani network), would be compelled to fend off a potentially grave threat to Pakistan’s unity.	在这种情况下，巴基斯坦的将军们不仅不能继续资助阿富汗普什图族激进团体（比如塔利班及其盟友哈卡尼网络），反而可能被迫抵御严重威胁巴基斯坦团结的因素。


A weak, partitioned Afghanistan may not be a desirable outcome; but a “soft” partition now would be far better than a “hard” partition later, after years of chaos and bloodletting – and infinitely better than the medieval Taliban’s return to power and a fresh reign of terror.	一个没落分裂的阿富汗或许不是最理想的结果，但目前的“软性”分裂比起经过多年流血混乱之后的“硬性”分裂要好得多——更不用说新的恐怖统治和中世纪塔利班重新掌权了。


Indeed, partition may be the only way to prevent Afghanistan from sliding into large-scale civil war and to thwart transnational terrorists from reestablishing a base of operations in the rubble.	事实上，分裂或许是阻止阿富汗陷入大规模内战及跨国恐怖分子在废墟中重建行动基地的唯一方法。


Securing the Internet Commons	捍卫互联网公地


WASHINGTON, DC – Ever since Edward Snowden’s revelations about the National Security Agency’s spying on citizens and leaders around the world, a debate has raged in the United States about the proper balance between national security and individual privacy and liberty.	华盛顿—自爱德华·斯诺登（Edward Snowden）揭露美国国安局监控全球公民和领导人以来，美国掀起了一场关于国家安全和个人隐私和自由之间的恰当平衡的争论。


Most recently that debate has focused on encryption: whether technology companies should be able to develop programs that encrypt their users’ messages so securely that no one but their intended recipients – not even governments – can read them.	这场争论最新的焦点是加密技术：科技公司是否应该开发加密用户信息的程序，让除了传送对象之外的所有人——哪怕是政府——都无法读取这些信息。


It is a debate to which governments and citizens everywhere should pay attention.	这场争论全世界各国政府和公民都应该关注。


Not surprisingly, the US government’s national security officials oppose full encryption by American technology companies, arguing that the country will be less safe if the proper authorities have no “backdoor” – a piece of code that lets them in.	毫不奇怪，美国政府国家安全部门反对美国科技公司进行充分加密，指出如果有关部门得不到“后门”——让它们窥探信息的代码——美国的安全就得不到保障。


Software engineers call backdoors “vulnerabilities,” deliberate efforts to weaken security.	软件工程师将后门称为“弱点”，即刻意削减安全性的措施。


They regard a request for backdoors the same way an automobile manufacturer would view a request for a defective engine.	他们认为，要求留下后门就好比要求汽车制造商采用有缺陷的发动机。


A large coalition of technology companies and civil-society organizations recently sent a letter to President Barack Obama arguing against backdoors.	最近，一个由科技公司和公民社会组织组成的大联盟致信总统奥巴马反对后门。


In addition to “undermining every American’s cyber security and the nation’s economic security,” the signers argued, “introducing new vulnerabilities to weaken encrypted products in the US would also undermine human rights and information security around the globe.”	除了“危及每一位美国人的网络安全和国家的经济安全，”联署者指出，“引入新弱点削弱美国加密产品还将损害全球人权和信息安全。 ”


What supporters of encryption recognize is that “if American companies maintain the ability to unlock their customers’ data and devices on request, governments other than the United States will demand the same access, and will also be emboldened to demand the same capability from their native companies.”	加密支持者的认识是“如果美国公司有能力按要求解锁客户数据和设备，美国以外的政府也会要求获得这一权限，从而也会向本国公司要求同样的权限。


The US government will not be able to object, given its own policies.	”美国政府无法反对，因为它自己也是这样做的。


The result “will be an information environment riddled with vulnerabilities that could be exploited by even the most repressive or dangerous regimes.”	结果“将是到处是弱点的信息环境，可以被最残酷最危险的政权所利用。 ”


What is at stake is nothing less than the health of the “global digital ecosystem.”	兹事体大，关乎“全球数字生态系统”的健康。


The technology corporations that signed this letter understand that while they may be incorporated in the US, they are global players and have global responsibilities.	联署致信奥巴马的科技公司明白，尽管它们是美国的公司，但它们的业务遍及全球，因此负有全球责任。


They also understand, in a more self-interested vein, that if foreign consumers believe that using American social media and search engines exposes them to the scrutiny of US intelligence agencies, those consumers will turn to other providers.	它们也明白，在自利前提下，如果外国消费者认为使用美国社交媒体和搜索引擎会让他们暴露在美国情报机构的监视下，这些消费者就会转向其他提供商。


The response of many foreign governments has been to focus on how to ensure and protect their “technological sovereignty.”	许多外国政府的反应集中在如何确保和保护它们的“技术主权”上。


Information may transcend borders, but servers and cables still have physical locations.	信息可以跨越国界，但服务器和光缆是有物理地址的。


The Open Technology Institute at New America (which I head) is collaborating with the German Global Public Policy Institute (GPPI) on a series of transatlantic dialogues about “security and freedom in the Digital Age.”	新美国开放技术研究所（Open Technology Institute at New America，由我担任主席）正在你与德国全球公共政策研究所（Global Public Policy Institute，GPPI）合作进行一系列关于“数字时代的安全与自由”的跨大西洋对话。


An initial report identifies 18 proposals from more than a dozen European governments on subjects including new undersea cables, encryption, localized data storage, domestic industry support, international codes of conduct, and data protection laws.	初始报告收集了来自十多家欧洲政府的18份方案，主题涵盖了新海底光缆、加密、本地化数据储存、国内产业支持、国际行为准则和数据保护法律等。


Many of these proposals will not actually achieve their goals.	这些方案中有许多无法真正实现目标。


But the most important issues to sort out are less about feasibility than about desirability, from both a national and a global perspective.	但大部分提出的问题更多地属于合意性（desirability）而不是可行性范畴，从国家和全球层面都是如此。


As with US companies, it is important to differentiate among corporate, economic, and public interests at the national and global levels.	与美国公司一样，一个要点是区分国家和全球层面上的公司、经济和公共利益。


Citizens from around the world have a stake in getting this right.	赢得这一权利事关全世界公民。


For starters, digital protectionism should be as suspect as any other form of protectionism, albeit with exceptions for health, safety, and social solidarity.	首先，数字保护主义与其他任何类型的保护主义一样值得怀疑——卫生、安全和社会团结问题除外。


“Technological sovereignty” can easily be a pretext for insisting that citizens buy only homegrown tech products.	“技术主权”很容易成为要求公民只购买本土科技产品的托辞。


Moreover, rules should be formulated globally and implemented nationally.	此外，规则的制定应该全球化，而执行应该国家化。


The Internet is essentially a country with both state and non-state actors as its citizens.	互联网本质上是一个由国家（state）和非国家行为人组成的实体（country）。


It is our task to ensure that it is a free, open, and universally accessible country that advances and safeguards universal human rights.	我们有责任确保它是个自由、开放、人人都能进入的实体，对普世人权起到促进和保护作用。


The OECD adopted an excellent set of “Principles for Internet Policy Making” in 2011.	2011年，经合组织采取了一组优秀的“互联网决策原则”（Principles for Internet Policy Making）。 原则1要求决策者“促进和保护信息的全球自由流动”；


Principle 1 requires that policymakers “promote and protect the global free flow of information”; Principle 2 insists on promotion of “the open, distributed, and interconnected nature of the Internet”; Principle 8 mandates “transparency, fair process, and accountability” across the Internet; Principle 11 promotes “creativity and innovation”; and Principle 13 “encourage[s] cooperation to promote Internet security.”	原则2要求促进“互联网的开放、分散和互联的性质”； 原则8规定了整个互联网的“透明性、程序正义和可问责性”；


Other countries and regional organizations have come up with similar guidance.	其他国家和地区组织也遵循类似的指导原则。


The point is less the specific wording or even content than the recognition that such principles are necessary for policymakers around the world.	要点不在于具体的用词甚至内容，而在于承认这些原则是全世界决策者必须遵守的。


From this perspective, it is not clear whether “technological sovereignty” is a helpful or harmful concept.	从这个角度讲，“技术主权”概念的利弊仍不明朗。


It makes digital space sound like airspace or territorial seas, something that is somehow derived from or adjacent to physical territory.	它使数字空间听上去类似于领空和领海，一种接近或由物理领土衍生出来的概念。


The New America-GPPI report is entitled “Technological Sovereignty: Missing the Point?”	新美国-GPPI报告的标题是《技术主权：文不对题？ 》（Technological Sovereignty: Missing the Point?


The authors conclude that “data privacy and security depend primarily not on where data is physically stored or sent, but on how it is stored and transmitted.”	）。 报告作者认为，“数字隐私和安全主要不是取决于数字在真实世界的何处储存或发送，而取决于它如何储存和传输。


For data purposes, at least, we are in a post-territorial age.	”至少对数据目的来说，我们已经进入了后领土时代。


Decoupling sovereignty from territory is hard to do, particularly after Snowden showed the world just how far one country’s technological tentacles can reach.	将主权和领土脱钩很难办到，特别是在斯诺登向全世界揭露了一个国家的技术触手可以伸到多远的情况下。


Still, the larger lesson is that differentiating between national security and global security in the digital world may be both impossible and deeply counter-productive.	但是，更大的教训是，在数字世界中区分国家安全和国际安全也许既不可能，也具有深刻的反作用。


We need new maps and mindsets and new coalitions of business, civic activists, and all those who understand that national security must include the protection of privacy and freedom of expression.	我们需要新的地图和思维，以及新的商业、公民活动家和所有理解国家安全必须包括隐私保护和言论自由的人所组成的新联盟。


And we need new ways to engage both governments and citizens in a new, exhilarating, dangerous, and still largely unexplored world.	我们需要新方法让政府和公民共同参与一个全新的、令人兴奋的、危险的、大部分仍未得到探索的世界。


America’s Trade Deficit Begins at Home	自产自销的美国贸易赤字


NEW HAVEN – Thanks to fear mongering on the US presidential campaign trail, the trade debate and its impact on American workers is being distorted at both ends of the political spectrum.	发自纽黑文——在美国总统选战的大肆煽动之下，针对贸易问题的辩论及其对美国工人的影响在政治光谱的两端都被扭曲了。


From China-bashing on the right to the backlash against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the left, politicians of both parties have mischaracterized foreign trade as America’s greatest economic threat.	左派对跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）协定极为不满，而右派则不断抨击中国，两党的政治家们都将对外贸易曲解为美国最大的经济威胁。


In 2015, the United States had trade deficits with 101 countries – a multilateral trade deficit in the jargon of economics.	在2015年，美国对101个国家拥有贸易赤字——即经济学术语中的所谓多边贸易赤字。


But this cannot be pinned on one or two “bad actors,” as politicians invariably put it.	但切不可像这帮政客们那样总是归咎于一两个“坏家伙”。


Yes, China – everyone’s favorite scapegoat – accounts for the biggest portion of this imbalance. But the combined deficits of the other 100 countries are even larger.	虽然中国——大家最喜欢找的替罪羊——确实占了这种不平衡状况的大头，但其他100个国家加起来的综合赤字其实更为庞大。


What the candidates won’t tell the American people is that the trade deficit and the pressures it places on hard-pressed middle-class workers stem from problems made at home.	但那些候选人不会向美国民众说明的是，贸易赤字及其对举步维艰的中产阶级工人所带来的压力其实是由美国国内的问题所导致的。


In fact, the real reason the US has such a massive multilateral trade deficit is that Americans don’t save.	事实上，美国拥有如此庞大多边贸易赤字的真正原因是美国人不愿意储蓄。


Total US saving – the sum total of the saving of families, businesses, and the government sector – amounted to just 2.6% of national income in the fourth quarter of 2015.	美国的总储蓄额——家庭，企业和政府部门储蓄额的总和——在2015年第四季度仅占国民收入的2. 6％，相对去年同期下降了0.


That is a 0.6-percentage-point drop from a year earlier and less than half the 6.3% average that prevailed during the final three decades of the twentieth century.	6个百分点，还不足上世纪最后三十年间6. 3％的平均水平的一半。


Any basic economics course stresses the ironclad accounting identity that saving must equal investment at each and every point in time.	任何基础经济学课程都会强调一个会计恒等铁律，即储蓄额必须在每个时间点上都与投资额相等。


Without saving, investing in the future is all but impossible.	没有储蓄就几乎不可能实现未来的投资。


And yet that’s the position in which the US currently finds itself.	而这正是在美国目前所处的状况。


Indeed, the saving numbers cited above are “net” of depreciation – meaning that they measure the saving available to fund new capacity rather than the replacement of worn-out facilities.	事实上，上面提到的储蓄比率是没有考虑折旧的“净值”——这意味着它们衡量的储蓄都是用来注资建造新产能的，却没有考虑还需要一部分储蓄来更换旧设施。


Unfortunately, that is precisely what America is lacking.	不幸的是后者正是美国所缺乏的。


So why is this relevant for the trade debate?	那么这跟贸易辩论又有什么关系？


In order to keep growing, the US must import surplus saving from abroad.	为了保持增长，美国必须从海外引入过剩的储蓄。


As the world’s greatest economic power and issuer of what is essentially the global reserve currency, America has had no trouble – at least not yet – attracting the foreign capital it needs to compensate for a shortfall of domestic saving.	作为世界上最大的经济体和全球储备货币的实际发行者，美国在吸引弥补国内储蓄短缺所需的外国资本方面没有任何难度——至少目前还没有。


But there is a critical twist: To import foreign saving, the US must run a massive international balance-of-payments deficit.	但这里有一个关键的转折：为了进口外国储蓄，美国必须拥有大规模的平衡国际收支赤字。


The mirror image of America’s saving shortfall is its current-account deficit, which has averaged 2.6% of GDP since 1980.	而美国储蓄缺口的镜像就是其经常账户赤字，自1980年以来平均占到GDP的2. 6％。


It is this chronic current-account gap that drives the multilateral trade deficit with 101 countries.	正是这种长期性经常账户缺口驱动了与101个国家的多边贸易赤字。


To borrow from abroad, America must give its trading partners something in return for their capital: US demand for products made overseas.	为了从国外借款，美国必须拿出点什么给贸易伙伴来交换它们的资本——这个交换物就是美国对海外制造产品的需求。


Therein lies the catch to the politicization of America’s trade problems.	这其中就埋伏着美国贸易问题政治化的关键点。


Closing down trade with China, as Donald Trump would effectively do with his proposed 45% tariff on Chinese products sold in the US, would backfire.	如果像唐纳德·特朗普提出的那样对在美销售的中国制商品征收45％关税并试图以此消除中美逆差的话，结果只会适得其反。


Without fixing the saving problem, the Chinese share of America’s multilateral trade imbalance would simply be redistributed to other countries – most likely to higher-cost producers.	如果没法解决储蓄问题，中国在美国多边贸易失衡中所占的份额只会被重新分配给其他国家——而且成本很可能会更高。


I have estimated that Chinese labor compensation rates remain far less than half of those prevailing in America’s other top-ten foreign suppliers.	根据笔者的估算，中国的劳动报酬率远低于美国其他前十大国外供应商工资水平的一半。


If those countries were to fill the void left by a penalty on China, like the one that Trump has proposed, higher-cost producers would undoubtedly charge more than China for products sold in the US.	如果这些国家像特朗普提出的那样填补了制裁中国后产生的空白，这些高成本生产国无疑会为在美销售产品收取比中国更高的成本价。


The resulting increase in import prices would be an effective tax hike on the American middle class.	而进口价格的增幅实际上就是对美国中产阶级的加税。


That underscores the futility of attempting to find a bilateral solution for a multilateral problem.	这说明试图用一个双边解决方案来解决多边问题其实是徒劳的。


The same perverse outcome could be expected from the reckless fiscal policies proposed by other politicians.	从其它政客嘴里喊出的鲁莽财政政策也会产生同样的负面后果。


Take, for example, the ten-year $14.5 trillion federal government spending binge proposed by Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders – a program judged to be without any semblance of fiscal integrity by leading economic advisers within the very party whose nomination he seeks.	比如说民主党总统候选人伯尼·桑德斯就提出要在十年内暴增14. 5万亿美元联邦政府开支——且不说竞选对手如何冷嘲热讽，就连他本党的顶级经济顾问都觉得没有一点财政可行性。


Government budget deficits have long accounted for the largest share of America’s seemingly chronic saving shortfall.	政府预算赤字长期以来都占据着美国长期储蓄缺口的最大份额。


The added deficits of Sandersnomics, or for that matter those of any other politician, would further depress America’s national saving – thereby exacerbating the multilateral trade imbalance that puts such acute pressure on middle-class families.	桑德斯经济学（Sandersnomics）或者其��政客的类似提案所导致的赤字增长只会进一步削减美国的国民储蓄——从而加剧多边贸易不平衡状况并令中产阶级家庭压力剧增。


Seen through the same lens, mega trade deals, such as the TPP, would also have an important bearing on pressures that squeeze American workers.	从同样的角度看，TPP这类大型贸易协议也会是导致美国工人生存日子难过的重要因素。


The TPP would effectively divert trade flows from those countries that are not a part of the agreement to those that are. With China excluded from the TPP, the same phenomenon noted above would result: American middle-class families would be taxed by the diversion of trade away from low-cost non-TPP producers such as China toward higher-cost TPP signatories such as Japan, Canada, and Australia.	由于 TPP会将贸易流从非签约国导向签约国，而随着中国被排除在外，上面提到的现象也将重演：美国中产阶级家庭无法选择中国这类低成本非TPP签约国的产品，只能转向日本，加拿大和澳大利亚这类成本较高的TPP签约国购买，实际上等于被多征了税。


In short, trade bashing is a foil for the vacuous promises that politicians of both parties have long made to American voters.	由此可见，在贸易上大做文章只不过是民主共和两党政治家长期以来对美国选民做出的空洞承诺的华丽包装而已。


Saving is the seed corn of economic growth – the means to boost American competitiveness by investing in people, infrastructure, technology, and new manufacturing capacity.	储蓄是实现经济增长的火种——是对人才、基础设施，科技和新产能进行投资以提振美国竞争力的手段。


The US government, through decades of deficit spending and advocacy of policies that encourage households to consume rather than save, has forced America to rely on foreign saving for far too long.	但美国政府通过几十年赤字支出和鼓励居民消费而非储蓄的政策宣传，迫使美国过长时间地依赖外国储蓄运转。


This has undermined US competitiveness, punishing workers with the job losses and wage compression that trade deficits invariably spawn.	这削弱了美国的竞争力，让劳动者们被迫面对因贸易赤字而导致的失业和工资削减。


America’s 101 trade deficits don’t exist in a vacuum. They are a symptom of a deeper problem: a US economy that has lived beyond its means for decades.	美国的101国多边贸易逆差不是凭空出现的，而是一个更深层次问题的表面症状：美国经济已经入不敷出地运行了好几十年。


Saving is but a means to an end – in this case the sustenance of a thriving and secure middle class.	储蓄是结束这一切的手段——这意味着支撑一个蓬勃兴旺且具有安全感的中产阶级。


Without saving, the American Dream is in danger of becoming a nightmare.	没有储蓄，美国梦就很可能演变成一场噩梦。


The trade debate of the current presidential campaign heightens that risk.	而目前总统竞选中的贸易辩论则加剧了这种风险。


America’s True Role in Syria	美国在叙利亚的真正角色


NEW YORK – Syria’s civil war is the most dangerous and destructive crisis on the planet.	纽约—叙利亚内战是整个地球最危险、最具破坏性的危机。 2011年初以来，数十万人丧生；


Since early 2011, hundreds of thousands have died; around ten million Syrians have been displaced; Europe has been convulsed with Islamic State (ISIS) terror and the political fallout of refugees; and the United States and its NATO allies have more than once come perilously close to direct confrontation with Russia.	欧洲深受伊斯兰国恐怖活动和难民的政治余波影响； 而美国及其北约盟国不止一次险些与俄罗斯爆发直接冲突。


Unfortunately, President Barack Obama has greatly compounded the dangers by hiding the US role in Syria from the American people and from world opinion.	不幸的是，总统奥巴马将美国藏了起来，使其无法作为美国人民和世界民意的选择，这大大加剧了危险。


An end to the Syrian war requires an honest accounting by the US of its ongoing, often secretive role in the Syrian conflict since 2011, including who is funding, arming, training, and abetting the various sides.	结束叙利亚战争需要美国真心诚意清算其自2011年以来在叙利亚冲突中所一直在扮演的、常常是秘密的角色，包括谁在为多方提供资金、装备、训练和教唆。


Such exposure would help bring to an end many countries’ reckless actions.	这些信息的曝光有助于结束多个国家的鲁莽行动。


A widespread – and false – perception is that Obama has kept the US out of the Syrian war.	一个广泛——并且错误——的感觉是奥巴马让美国置身叙利亚战争事外。


Indeed, the US right wing routinely criticizes him for having drawn a line in the sand for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over chemical weapons, and then backing off when Assad allegedly crossed it (the issue remains murky and disputed, like so much else in Syria).	事实上，美国右翼一直在批评他为叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德画了一条和没有一样的化学武器红线，当巴沙尔被控越过这条线时，奥巴马毫无作为（这个问题仍然语焉不详，莫衷一是，一如许多叙利亚的其他问题）。


A leading columnist for the Financial Times, repeating the erroneous idea that the US has remained on the sidelines, recently implied that Obama had rejected the advice of then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to arm the Syrian rebels fighting Assad.	一位《金融时报》大牌专栏作家一直错误地宣称美国保持置身事外，最近他暗示奥巴马拒绝了时任国务卿希拉里·克林顿关于武装叙利亚叛军对付巴沙尔的建议。


Yet the curtain gets lifted from time to time.	但面纱总会被揭开。


In January, the New York Times finally reported on a secret 2013 Presidential order to the CIA to arm Syrian rebels.	1月，《纽约时报》终于报道了2013年的一份秘密总统令，命令中央情报局武装叙利亚叛军。


As the account explained, Saudi Arabia provides substantial financing of the armaments, while the CIA, under Obama’s orders, provides organizational support and training.	报道解释说，沙特阿拉伯为装备提供了大量资金，而中央情报局根据奥巴马的命令提供组织架构的支持和培训。


Unfortunately, the story came and went without further elaboration by the US government or follow up by the New York Times.	不幸的是，这篇报道就此打住，并未引起美国政府的进一步解释或《纽约时报》的进一步跟进。


The public was left in the dark: How big are the ongoing CIA-Saudi operations?	公众仍然蒙在鼓里：这个进行中的中央情报局-沙特阿拉伯行动到底有多大？


How much is the US spending on Syria per year?	美国每年在叙利亚身上花多少钱？


What kinds of arms are the US, Saudis, Turks, Qataris, and others supplying to the Syrian rebels?	美国、沙特、土耳其、卡塔尔和其他人供给叙利亚叛军的是什么装备？


Which groups are receiving the arms?	那些组织能获得装备？


What is the role of US troops, air cover, and other personnel in the war?	美军、空中力量和其他人手在战争中扮演了什么角色？


The US government isn’t answering these questions, and mainstream media aren’t pursuing them, either.	美国政府没有回答这些问题，而主流媒体也没有追问。


On more than a dozen occasions, Obama has told the American people that there would be “no US boots on the ground.”	有十几次，奥巴马告诉美国人民“美国不会派遣地面部队”。


Yet every few months, the public is also notified in a brief government statement that US special operations forces are being deployed to Syria.	但每隔几个月，公众都会从政府简报中了解到，美国特种部队正在部署到叙利亚。


The Pentagon routinely denies that they are in the front lines.	五角大楼往往否认前线有他们的身影。


But when Russia and the Assad government recently carried out bombing runs and artillery fire against rebel strongholds in northern Syria, the US notified the Kremlin that the attacks were threatening American troops on the ground.	但当俄罗斯和巴沙尔政府最近对叙利亚北部叛军据点进行轰炸和炮轰时，美国通知克里姆林宫袭击威胁到地面美军。


The public has been given no explanation about their mission, its costs, or counterparties in Syria.	公众没有获得关于他们的任务、成本或叙利亚对手方的解释。


Through occasional leaks, investigative reports, statements by other governments, and rare statements by US officials, we know that America is engaged in an active, ongoing, CIA-coordinated war both to overthrow Assad and to fight ISIS.	通过偶尔的泄密、调查报道、其他政府的文件，以及美国官员的偶然放风，我们知道美国卷入了一场积极的、仍在持续的、由中央情报局负责协调的战争，其目的既包括推翻巴沙尔，也包括打击伊斯兰国。


America’s allies in the anti-Assad effort include Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and other countries in the region.	美国的反巴沙尔行动的盟友包括沙特阿拉伯、土耳其、卡塔尔和地区中的其他国家。


The US has spent billions of dollars on arms, training, special operations forces, air strikes, and logistical support for the rebel forces, including international mercenaries.	美国在装备、训练、特种部队、空袭以及物流支持叛军（包括国际雇佣兵）方面花费了数十亿美元。


American allies have spent billions of dollars more.	美国盟友比美国的花费还要多数十亿美元。


The precise sums are not reported.	准确数字没有报道。


The US public has had no say in these decisions.	美国公众对于这些决定毫无话语权。


There has been no authorizing vote or budget approval by the US Congress.	美国国会没有进行授权投票或批准预算。


The CIA’s role has never been explained or justified.	中央情报局的角色从未得到解释或论证。


The domestic and international legality of US actions has never been defended to the American people or the world.	美国行动的国内和国际合法性从未在美国人民或世界面前得到辩护。


To those at the center of the US military-industrial complex, this secrecy is as it should be.	对于位于美国军事-产业链中心地位的人来说，保密是理所当然的。


Their position is that a vote by Congress 15 years ago authorizing the use of armed force against those culpable for the 9/11 attack gives the president and military carte blanche to fight secret wars in the Middle East and Africa.	他们的立足点是，15年前国会曾经投票批准对9/11袭击负责犯罪分子动用武力，这已经给了总统和军方在中东和非洲进行秘密战争的全权委托。


Why should the US explain publicly what it is doing?	美国为何要公开解释它在做什么？


That would only jeopardize the operations and strengthen the enemy.	这只能破坏行动、强化敌人。


The public does not need to know.	公众不需要知道。


I subscribe to a different view: wars should be a last resort and should be constrained by democratic scrutiny.	我持有不同观点：战争应该是最后手段，并受到国内审查的约束。


This view holds that America’s secret war in Syria is illegal both under the US Constitution (which gives Congress the sole power to declare war) and under the United Nations Charter, and that America’s two-sided war in Syria is a cynical and reckless gamble.	这一观点认为，美国在叙利亚的秘密战争根据美国宪法（授予国会宣战权）和联合国宪章都是非法的，而美国在叙利亚的两面战争是一场犬儒和鲁莽的赌博。


The US-led efforts to topple Assad are not aimed at protecting the Syrian people, as Obama and Clinton have suggested from time to time, but are a US proxy war against Iran and Russia, in which Syria happens to be the battleground.	美国领导的推翻巴沙尔的行动目的并不像奥巴马和克林顿所说的那样是为了保护叙利亚人民，而是一场针对伊朗和俄罗斯的美国代理战争，而叙利亚正好是战场。


The stakes of this war are much higher and much more dangerous than America’s proxy warriors imagine.	这场战争的赌注要比美国代理战士所想象的高得多，也危险得多。


As the US has prosecuted its war against Assad, Russia has stepped up its military support to his government.	由于美国向巴沙尔宣战，俄罗斯也派出军队支持巴沙尔政府。


In the US mainstream media, Russia’s behavior is an affront: how dare the Kremlin block the US from overthrowing the Syrian government?	在美国主流媒体看来，俄罗斯的行为属于冒犯：克里姆林宫胆敢阻挠美国推翻叙利亚政府？


The result is a widening diplomatic clash with Russia, one that could escalate and lead – perhaps inadvertently – to the point of military conflict.	结果是对俄外交关系裂痕扩大，并且可能升级并达到——也许是在不经意间——军事冲突点。


These are issues that should be subject to legal scrutiny and democratic control.	这些都是理应受到合法性审查和国内控制的问题。


I am confident that the American people would respond with a resounding “no” to the ongoing US-led war of regime change in Syria.	我有信心美国人民对于正在进行中的、美国领导的推翻叙利亚政权的战争会响亮地说“不”。


The American people want security – including the defeat of ISIS – but they also recognize the long and disastrous history of US-led regime-change efforts, including in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Central America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.	美国人民希望安全——包括击败伊斯兰国——但他们也清楚，长期以来，美国所领导的推翻政权的行动带来的无不是灾难——阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚、叙利亚、中美洲、非洲和东南亚概莫能外。


This is the main reason why the US security state refuses to tell the truth.	这是美国安全机构拒绝说出真相的主要原因。


The American people would call for peace rather than perpetual war.	美国人民将要求和平，而不是打不完的战争。


Obama has a few months left in office to repair his broken legacy.	奥巴马还有几个月时间在任上修复这一消极遗产。


He should start by leveling with the American people.	他应该从与美国人民平等对话开始。


Pakistan’s Winnable War on Polio	巴基斯坦可以赢得小儿麻痹症战争


LAHORE – I grew up in Pakistan throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s, and my parents, like parents everywhere, wanted me to be fit and healthy and to get the best start in life.	拉合尔—20世纪八九十年代，我在巴基斯坦长大，我的父母和世界各地的父母一样，希望我身体健康，有一个良好的生活开端。


I was lucky enough to be brought up in a middle-class family with good sanitation facilities and clean water.	我有幸生在中产阶级家庭，拥有优良的卫生设施和清洁水。


I was also given vaccines to prevent life-threatening infections such as polio and measles.	我也接种了预防小儿麻痹症和麻疹等威胁生命的传染病的疫苗。


But I remember the many children in my neighborhood who were not vaccinated.	但我记得，许多邻居家小孩没有接种疫苗。


Those early experiences of children I knew contracting disease, especially the poliovirus that is so visibly impairing, shaped my views on the immense value of good health and the power of vaccines.	这些我认识的小孩童年经历了各种疾病，特别是留下明显残疾的小儿麻痹症，这让我深刻领略到身体健康的价值和疫苗的力量。


I live in London now, but my roots will always be in Pakistan.	现在我生活在伦敦，但我的根永远在巴基斯坦。


As head of the British Pakistan Foundation, I help philanthropists from the Pakistani diaspora invest in sustainable and effective social development projects.	作为英国巴基斯坦基金会主席，我协助巴基斯坦侨民慈善家投资于可持续、高效率的社会发展项目。


Over the last few weeks, I have been in my hometown of Lahore, the country’s second-largest city, discussing everything from the upcoming elections to everyday life challenges.	在过去几周中，我前往家乡——巴基斯坦第二大城市拉合尔，讨论从即将到来的选举到日常生活挑战的各种事物。


Last week, I visited an orphanage on the outskirts of the city, set up after the 2005 earthquake that killed an estimated 75,000 people. I was impressed and encouraged that roughly four-fifths of the 85 children were fully vaccinated.	上周我访问了拉合尔市郊的一所孤儿院，令我印象深刻也倍感鼓舞的是，85名儿童中有五分之四左右接种了全部疫苗。


National statistics on immunization back up the positive signs that I saw.	免疫方面全国统计数字也支持我所看到的积极信号。


In 1994, Pakistan had roughly 25,000 cases of polio, many resulting in death or permanent disability. But, thanks to intensive vaccination campaigns, there were only 58 cases of polio in the entire country last year – down 70% from 2011.	1994年，巴基斯坦约发生了25000例小儿麻痹症，其中许多人因此丧生或永久致残。


And the government and international health officials have agreed on a plan to stop polio transmission in Pakistan completely by the end of 2014 – a historic accomplishment that would be a huge source of national pride.	但是，拜大规模疫苗推广之功，去年整个巴基斯坦只发生了58例小儿麻痹症，比2011年下降70%。


The main driver of Pakistan’s dramatic reduction in polio cases over the last two decades has been leadership at all levels.	过去二十年巴基斯坦小儿麻痹症病例数量大幅下降的主要原因是各个层面的领导。


In 1994, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto launched the first national vaccination drive by inoculating her baby daughter, Aseefa.	1994年，总理布托推出了第一个全国疫苗计划，第一个接种的是她自己的女儿阿西法（Aseefa）。


Nineteen years later, Aseefa is Pakistan’s Goodwill Ambassador on Polio Eradication and a powerful advocate of completing her mother’s dream of a polio-free country.	19年后，阿西法成为巴基斯坦消灭小儿麻痹症亲善大使，也是完成其母在巴基斯坦彻底消灭小儿麻痹症梦想的有力支持者。


International public-private partnerships and an army of vaccinators are working on the frontlines to protect every last child.	国际公私合作和接种员队伍正奋斗在保护每一位儿童的最前沿。


Collectively, we are helping children and communities once considered unreachable.	作为一个集体，我们帮助了从前认为不可能覆盖到的儿童和社区。


With the recent progress on polio, Pakistan has a blueprint for future public-health interventions.	除了小儿麻痹症领域的最新进展，巴基斯坦还有一个未来公共卫生干预蓝图。


In fact, we are already seeing the new framework take shape.	事实上，我们正在看到新的框架成型。


For example, vitamin A drops – which provide infants with an essential micronutrient for vision and healthy growth – are now delivered twice yearly in conjunction with polio vaccines.	比如，现在维生素A滴剂每年与小儿麻痹症疫苗一起提供两次。 维生素A滴剂能为婴儿提供视力形成和健康成长所需的关键微量元素。


Moreover, last year Pakistan became the first country in the region to introduce the latest vaccine to protect children against pneumonia.	此外，去年巴基斯坦还成为地区首个引入最新儿童肺炎疫苗的国家。


With pneumonia accounting for a shockingly high 20% of child deaths each year in Pakistan, widespread access to the new vaccine should have a major impact.	在巴基斯坦，肺炎致儿童死亡数比例高达20%，新疫苗的广泛使用应能产生重大成果。


Major challenges remain.	主要挑战依然存在。


According to UNICEF, Pakistan has the second-highest rate of child mortality in South Asia.	据联合国儿童基金会的数据，巴基斯坦的儿童夭折率高举南亚第二。


There is an important debate taking place in our country about how best to organize the health-care system so that it is accountable for serving the poorest and most marginalized communities.	在巴基斯坦，一个重要的争论话题是如何最好地组织卫生体系，让人为服务最贫困人群和最边缘社区负责。


The size of the challenges that we face was made clear at the beginning of this year, when a measles outbreak killed more than 300 children in Pakistan – most of whom had not received vaccines.	我们所面临的挑战的规模在今年初已彰显无遗——麻疹大爆发夺走了300多儿童的声明，其中大部分没有接种疫苗。


Just this month, we learned the tragic news that a guard accompanying health workers was killed during an immunization drive.	本月我们又获知了悲剧消息——一名接种工作随队保安在一次免疫任务中被杀。


But we will not be deterred.	但我们不会退缩。


Those who advocate violence are a minority in Pakistan, and will not stand in the way of our people’s betterment.	宣扬暴力者只是巴基斯坦人中的一小撮，他们阻挡不了巴基斯坦人民改善境况的洪流。


With the upcoming elections, we have a valuable opportunity to reaffirm our commitment to vaccines by strengthening national leadership on health and increasing investment in the health-care system.	在选举即将到来之际，我们获得了一次通过加强国家卫生领导和增加卫生系统投资来重申我们的承诺的良机。


And, as I heard from the guardians at the orphanage, educating communities about the value of vaccines and mobilizing their support is critical for reaching every last child.	我从孤儿院负责人口中得知，向社会普及疫苗的价值并动员它们的支持是让所有儿童都获得疫苗的关键。


The cooperation of the Pakistani diaspora movement and international donors like the Islamic Development Bank (which in March signed a financing package of $227 million to fight polio in Pakistan), together with the vaccinators’ determination to reach all of the country’s children, is inspirational.	巴基斯坦慈善运动和伊斯兰开发银行（3月份，该行在巴基斯坦签署了2. 27亿美元的消灭小儿麻痹症融资计划）等国际赞助人的合作，再加上疫苗接种工作者让疫苗普及到巴基斯坦每一位儿童的决心，让我们倍受鼓舞。


It is also changing lives for the better.	这同时也在改善生活。


With continued support for vital vaccines from Pakistan’s government and people, I am hopeful that the next time I return home, there will be even more reasons to be optimistic about our children’s future.	只要巴基斯坦政府和人民能继续支持关键性疫苗，我有信心当我下一次回到家乡时，我对祖国儿童未来感到乐观的理由会更加充足。


Vaccination’s Lifetime of Blessings	疫苗佑护生命


CAPE TOWN – A world in which our children and their children grow up free from the threat of polio and other preventable diseases is a dream that everyone shares.	开普敦—让我们的孩子和孩子的孩子在一个免受小儿麻痹症和其他可预防疾病困扰的世界中成长，这是我们所有人共同的梦想。


But, unlike most dreams, this one is achievable.	但是，和大部分梦想不同的是，这是一个可以实现的梦想。


Over my lifetime, I have been fortunate to witness the extraordinary impact that vaccines have had on protecting children from illness and death – especially in the developing world.	我这辈子有幸见证了疫苗在保护儿童免受疾病和死亡方面的卓著作用，特别是在发展中国家。


Vaccines have always had a special meaning for me.	疫苗对我总是有着特殊的意义。


As a young child in South Africa, I nearly died from polio.	小时候在南非，我几乎因小儿麻痹症而丧命。


Back then – in the early 1930’s – there was no vaccine for this highly infectious disease.	当时——20世纪30年代初——根本没有疫苗可以对付这一高传染性疾病。


With good reason, parents everywhere were terrified that poliovirus would reach their doorstep – like a plague – striking a child and causing irreversible paralysis in a matter of hours, or, worse, death in a matter of days.	不难理解，各家各户的父母都十分害怕小儿麻痹症病毒会像瘟疫一样前来敲门，几小时内让孩子终生残疾，或者（更糟糕地）几天之内夺走孩子的生命。


The doctors told my parents that little could be done for me, so my father prepared for my funeral.	医生告诉我父母亲他们无能为力，于是父母亲开始准备我的葬礼。


Fortunately, I recovered, except for the use of my right hand.	幸运的是我康复了，除了右手变得不太灵便之外。


I have gone on to live a wonderful life, but the paralysis in my hand is a daily reminder of why we must urgently pursue the eradication of polio and ensure that all children have access to the vaccines that they need.	此后我迎来了灿烂的人生，但右手残疾时刻提醒着我消灭小儿麻痹症、确保所有儿童都能获得他们所需要的疫苗是一项无比紧迫的任务。


Just a quarter-century ago, polio was endemic in 125 countries – and paralyzed more than 1,000 children every day.	二十五年前，小儿麻痹症肆虐于125个国家，每天都要导致1000多名儿童致残。


Today, we have the fewest cases of polio, in fewer countries, than ever before.	如今，小儿麻痹症已经非常罕见，发病国也比以前少了很多。


Last year, India – once thought to be the most difficult place to stop polio – was declared polio-free.	去年，印度宣布根除了小儿麻痹症——它原本是最难治理小儿麻痹症的国家。


In the remaining three countries where polio has not yet been eliminated – Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria – there were just 223 reported cases in 2012.	在尚未根除小儿麻痹症的三个国家——巴基斯坦、阿富汗和尼日利亚，2012年的报告病例只有223例。


This makes me optimistic that I will live to celebrate the day when this dreaded disease is stamped out forever.	这让我十分乐观，我可以活着见证这一可怕疾病永远消失。


The remarkable progress that we have made so far is the result of a sustained global effort, supported by significant resources committed by donor and affected countries, millions of dedicated health workers, and sustained political will to get the job done.	我之所以能取得如此令人瞩目的进步，要归因于全球的持续努力，赞助国和受助国所投入的巨大资源，数百万献身卫生事业的工作人员，和持续不断的完成这一目标的政治意愿。


But we must finish what we have started.	但我们必须完成我们所开始的事业。


Until the polio virus is eradicated everywhere, no country is safe from reinfection.	除非世界各国都根除小儿麻痹症，否则没有哪个国家是安全的。


At the same time, we must make the most of scientific advances over the last half-century, which have made vaccines for other preventable diseases the most powerful and cost-effective health-care investment that currently exists.	与此同时，我们必须利用过去半个世纪的最大的科学进步，这些进步让其他可预防疾病的疫苗成为最有力、最廉价的卫生投资。


Vaccines are inexpensive and easy to deliver, and they protect children for a lifetime.	疫苗是廉价而便于运送的，而且可以为儿童提供终生保护。


Vaccines have already eradicated smallpox, and dramatically reduced child deaths and disease associated with measles, diphtheria, and tetanus.	疫苗已经消灭了天花，大大地降低了与麻疹、白喉和破伤风有关的儿童死亡和疾病。


Yet, sadly, a child still dies every 20 seconds from diseases like pneumonia, which can be prevented by a vaccine.	但是，可悲的是，每20秒钟就有一名儿童死于肺炎等可以通过疫苗预防的疾病。


Most of them live in poor and remote communities that still lack access to the basic vaccines that are universally available in better-off countries.	这些死亡患儿大多生活在贫困而偏远的社区，得不到富裕国家人人可得的基本疫苗。


This is one of the reasons why a child born in a high-income country is 18 times less likely than a child born in a low-income country to die before reaching the age of five.	这就是生于高收入国家的儿童五岁前夭折几率比生于低收入国家儿童低18倍的原因之一。


Fortunately, the world is taking action.	幸运的是，世界正在采取行动。


This week in Abu Dhabi, Mohamed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi – in partnership with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Bill Gates – is hosting the world’s first global summit dedicated to ensuring that all children everywhere have access to the full benefits of vaccines.	本周，阿布扎比太子阿勒纳哈扬（Mohamed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi）将和联合国秘书长潘基文和比尔·盖茨一起在阿布扎比举办首届致力于确保世界各地每名儿童都能获得疫苗的完全好处的全球峰会。


The vaccine summit builds on a commitment last year by nearly 200 countries to eradicate polio, develop new and improved vaccines at affordable prices, and deliver them to every child by 2020.	疫苗峰会基于去年近200个国家所提出的在2020年前消灭小儿麻痹症，开发和改进可负担疫苗并交到每位儿童手中的承诺。


Ending polio will be a key milestone on the path to realizing this vision.	根除小儿麻痹症将是实现这一愿景路上的重要里程碑。


And the summit in Abu Dhabi has provided a clear plan to get there by 2018 – a strategy that complements other efforts to raise immunization coverage for diseases such as measles, pneumonia, and rotavirus.	阿布扎比峰会提供了明确的2018年计划——这一战略将对其他努力形成补充，提高麻疹、肺炎和冠状病毒等疾病的免疫覆盖率。


Strengthening routine immunization will protect our gains against polio and enable us to reach the most vulnerable children in the hardest-to-reach and most underserved communities.	加强常规免疫能够捍卫我们针对小儿麻痹症所取得的战果，让我们能够帮助到最难到达、服务水平最低的社区中的最脆弱的孩子。


Having grown up in a country where nearly one in four children infected with polio died from the disease, my heart soars when I imagine a world in which all families have access to lifesaving vaccines, freeing them from the burden of preventable death and disease.	我生长在一个每四名感染小儿麻痹症的儿童就有一人丧命的国家，每当我想到世界上所有家庭都能获得救命疫苗，让他们摆脱可预防死亡和疾病的重担，我就会激动不已。


Now we need funds, commitment, and the resolve to implement the plan presented in Abu Dhabi.	现在我们需要资金、承诺和决心来实施阿布扎比所提出的计划。


When it comes to the health of our children, there must be no distance between rich and poor, and no distinctions among communities.	对于孩子的健康问题，应该不分贫富，也不能区别对待不同社会。


Following through on polio eradication by extending the reach of vaccines to all children who need them is an opportunity for all of us to stand together on behalf of our global community.	通过让疫苗到达所有需要的儿童手中根除小儿麻痹症对我们所有人来说都是一次机会，我们应该代表全球社会携手前进。


We must do it.	我们必须这样做。


And when we succeed, it will be a triumph for humanity.	我们的成功就是全人类的胜利。


Vaccines Versus Superbugs	超级病菌和疫苗


LONDON – The outbreak of the Zika virus, like Ebola before it, has highlighted the risk that infectious diseases can pose to the health of entire countries – and the importance of vaccines to the fight against fast-moving epidemics.	伦敦——寨卡病毒的爆发，就像此前的埃博拉病毒一样凸显了传染病可能给整个国家带来的健康风险——以及疫苗在打击传染病迅速传播过程中所起的重要作用。


Indeed, efforts are already underway to find ways to inoculate people against both viruses.	事实上，人们已经开始想办法对上述两种病毒展开预防性接种。


But vaccines also have a crucial role to play in protecting us against a far deadlier and far more predictable threat: drug-resistant infections.	但疫苗也在保护我们对抗耐药菌感染这一更为致命也更可预测的治疗中发挥了至关重要的作用。


In contrast to unexpected, rapidly spreading outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic, antimicrobial resistance is like a slow-motion car crash that has already begun.	相比寨卡病毒等意外、迅速的疫情爆发，耐药性就像是正在上演的一次慢动作车祸。


Resistant pathogens cause about 700,000 deaths every year.	耐药菌每年造成约700,000 人死亡。


If we fail to take the necessary precautions, they will be killing some ten million people a year by 2050.	如果我们不采取必要的预防措施，到2050年它们将每年夺走约一千万人的生命。


Developing new antibiotics and putting in place methods to extend the lifespans of existing medications will help maintain a supply of effective treatments.	研发新抗生素及采取措施延长现有抗生素寿命能维护有效的治疗供应链。


But vaccines offer a unique opportunity.	但疫苗所提供的机会是独一无二的。


By reducing the number of infections, they limit the need for medication.	疫苗通过降低感染数量限制药物需求。


And because the use (or overuse) of antibiotics is what leads to drug resistance, the pressure on the pipeline of effective treatments will be alleviated.	而且因为对抗生素的使用（或过度使用）导致耐药性，疫苗也可以缓解有效治疗需求所带来的压力。


Unfortunately, the value that vaccination can provide in this area has yet to be properly recognized.	不幸的是，疫苗在上述领域所能实现的价值尚未被人们正确认识到。


As a result, we are not moving fast enough to develop the types of vaccines that could be used to prevent antimicrobial resistance.	结果是我们尚未达到防止耐药性疫苗研发所必须达到的速度。


Vaccine development takes a long time, often more than ten years.	疫苗研制需要很长时间，往往需要多达十年以上。


It is a high-risk endeavor, with the vast majority of potential vaccines failing to reach the market.	这是一项高风险尝试，其中绝大部分潜在疫苗永远无法进入市场。


Consequently, many vaccines are not commercially viable, even if they would be useful for society.	因此有许多疫苗缺乏商业可行性，即使它们本来可以发挥一定的社会作用。


Indeed, there is no vaccine available for any of the three resistance threats that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers “urgent”: Clostridium difficile, carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae, and drug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae.	事实上，被美国疾病控制和预防中心列为“迫在眉睫”的三大耐药性威胁都没有疫苗可用：它们是难辨梭状芽孢杆菌、耐碳青霉烯类肠杆菌和耐药淋球菌。


Nor are there enough candidate vaccines against these pathogens undergoing clinical trials.	也没有对抗这些病原体正在临床试验的足够数量的候选疫苗。


There have also been problems developing vaccines to combat tuberculosis or – more worrying still – multidrug-resistant TB.	更令人担忧的是，抗结核病或耐多药结核病疫苗的研发目前问题重重。


The World Health Organization has warned that the Sustainable Development Goal of eradicating TB by 2035 will not be achieved unless new drugs, better diagnostics, and improved vaccines are developed.	世卫组织警告2035年根除结核病的可持续发展目标可能无法实现，除非成功研制出新药、更先进的诊断方法和改进型疫苗。


And yet a new vaccine remains many years away, especially given that funding for TB vaccine research has declined in recent years.	但新疫苗研发还需多年的艰苦努力，尤其鉴于结核病疫苗研制经费近年来有所下降。


Even vaccines that are already available are not being used widely enough to have a large impact on antibiotic use and resistance.	就连已经面世的疫苗也未能对抗生素使用和耐药性产生多大的影响。


Every year, infections caused by the Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria kill more than 800,000 children under the age of five.	每年，被肺炎链球菌感染夺去生命的五岁以下儿童超过80万以上。


These deaths are completely preventable – by a jab that is already available in many parts of the world, the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.	上述儿童的死亡完全可以避免——通过注射在世界很多地方已经面世的肺炎球菌结合疫苗。


Universal vaccination would save millions of lives and prevent 11.4 million days of antibiotic use per year in children younger than five.	全面接种可以挽救数百万人的生命，防止对不满五岁儿童使用抗生素天数每年达到1140万天以上。


Similarly, the rotavirus vaccine could be used to prevent outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, a chief cause of child mortality in developing countries and a major driver of antibiotic use.	同样，轮状病毒疫苗可用于预防腹泻，后者是发展中国家儿童死亡的主要原因和抗生素使用的主要驱动因素。


Vaccines also have an important role to play in protecting livestock and fish from infections, optimizing the application of antibiotics in agriculture – where their overuse is an important cause of growing resistance.	疫苗还可以保护家畜和鱼免遭感染，优化导致抗药性越来越严重的重要原因——农业抗生素的过度使用 。


Maximizing the potential of vaccines to fight antimicrobial resistance thus requires the wider application of existing vaccines in humans and animals.	最大限度发挥疫苗的抗耐药性潜力因此需要现有疫苗在人和动物中的广泛应用。


But it also entails developing new vaccines, which, in the short-term, could be kick-started by a $2 billion Global Innovation Fund for early-stage research in vaccines and other viable alternatives to antibiotics.	但这也需要研发新型疫苗，该工作短期内可通过投资早期疫苗研究和其他可行替代抗生素的20亿美元全球创新基金加以启动。


And in areas where research and development is not an attractive proposition, developers must be provided an opportunity to make a return from useful products.	在研发吸引力较弱的领域，必须要为研发人员提供机会从有用的产品中获得回报。


Depending on the characteristics of different products, possible interventions would include advance market commitments and market-entry rewards.	根据不同的产品特点，可能的干预措施将包括推进市场承诺和市场准入回报。


Vaccines hold the potential to have a huge impact on drug resistance, if they are included as part of a broad series of interventions to combat the problem.	如果成为一系列干预措施的有效组成部分，疫苗有可能对耐药性产生巨大的影响。


Fortunately, awareness of this challenge is starting to take root.	幸运的是，对这一挑战的认识正在开始生根发芽。


At the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in Davos last month, 85 companies, including vaccine developers, large pharmaceutical companies, diagnostic developers, and biotech firms, committed to further action to reduce drug resistance.	在上个月达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛年度盛会上，85家企业，包括疫苗研制企业、大型制药企业、诊断研发企业和生物技术企业承诺开展降低耐药性的进一步行动。


And later this year, the World Health Assembly, the G-7 and G-20 summits, and the UN General Assembly will all address the topic.	而今年晚些时候，世界卫生大会、七国及二十国集团峰会和联合国大会将就此问题展开探讨。


The momentum now gathering in the public and private sectors is creating an opportunity that must not be missed.	现在公共和私营部门兴起势头所创造的机会绝对不容错过。


Vaccines for an Aging Population	老年人的疫苗注射


SEATTLE – The world’s population is getting bigger – and older.	西雅图——世界人口越来越多——而且年纪越来越大。


With the elderly increasingly close to outnumbering their younger counterparts – by 2050, there will be nearly three times more people aged 65 and above than people under four years old – many fear that the burden on government budgets, health-care systems, and economies will become untenable.	随着老年人越来越接近在数量上超过年轻人——截止2050年，65岁及以上的老年人将接近达到4岁以下幼儿的3倍——很多人担忧政府预算、医疗保健系统以及经济方面的负担将变得不可持续。


But there is something we can do to ease that burden: improve the health of the elderly.	但我们可以采取某些措施来缓解这样的负担：那就是改善老年人的健康状况。


As we age, our bodies undergo complex changes that, among other things, progressively weaken our ability to respond to infections and develop immunity (this is called immunosenescence).	随着年龄的增长，我们的身体会发生复杂的变化，后果之一是我们对感染作出反应并产生免疫的能力会逐渐削弱（人们将这称之为免疫衰老）。


That is why diseases in older adults tend to be more severe, with a greater impact on quality of life, disability, and mortality, than the same diseases in younger patients.	老年人疾病因此往往更加严重，比年轻患者罹患同样疾病在生活质量、残疾和死亡率方面造成更为严重的后果。


Put simply, aging adults’ immune systems need backup.	简言之，老年人的免疫系统需要支持。


That is where vaccines come in.	疫苗在这方面可以发挥重要的作用。


Vaccines are most often discussed with regard to young children, who should receive a series of inoculations against childhood illnesses like measles and polio.	疫苗往往针对年幼的儿童，为预防麻疹和脊髓灰质炎等儿童疾病，他们必须接受一系列疫苗接种。


Childhood vaccinations are one of the greatest medical success stories of the twentieth century, not least because of so-called herd immunity (the indirect protection of entire communities, including those who cannot be immunized for reasons like illness or age, by vaccinating most of their members).	儿童接种疫苗是20世纪最伟大的医学成就之一，尤其值得一提的是所谓的群体免疫保护（通过为群体中多数成员接种疫苗，从而为整个群体，包括那些因疾病或年龄原因无法接种疫苗的人提供间接保护）。


Nothing prohibits adults from taking advantage of the same science.	没有任何因素阻止成年人从同样的科学中得到好处。


In fact, they would reap far-reaching benefits – including the protection of their family and neighbors – from doing so.	事实上，成年人接种疫苗收获的好处影响深远——包括保护他们的家人和邻居。


Yet few actually do.	但很少有人真的这样做。


Adults need to understand that some of the more common infections to which they are vulnerable are vaccine-preventable.	成年人应当明白他们易患的很多普遍感染是可以通过疫苗预防的。


Consider shingles, an infection that can affect anyone who has had chicken pox in their lifetime (that is, 95% of adults worldwide).	比如带状疱疹，这种病可以感染曾患过水痘的所有人（相当于全世界成年人的95%）。


In the United States, roughly one-third of the population will get shingles at some point in their lives.	在美国，约1/3的人会在生命中某个阶段感染带状孢疹。


A case of shingles may be benign and relatively bearable for someone in his or her thirties.	带状孢疹病例对30多岁的人而言或许相对不那么严重和可以承受。


But the disease is far more common among people aged 50 and above – for whom it can be extremely painful.	但这种病在50岁及以上人群中要普遍的多——并且对这些人来讲可能会极端痛苦。


Older adults with shingles may experience chronic discomfort and serious complications that make it difficult to sleep, leave the house, or carry out daily activities.	罹患带状疱疹的老年人可能出现慢性不适和严重的并发症，甚至难以入睡、离家或者完成日常活动。


If they have been vaccinated – the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends getting vaccinated at age 60 – they can avoid this painful, sometimes debilitating, condition.	如果老年人接受疫苗注射——美国疾病控制和预防中心建议在60岁的时候接种疫苗——就可以避免这种痛苦、甚至在某些情况下使人变得衰弱的疾病。


Influenza is another vaccine-preventable disease.	流感是另外一种可以通过疫苗预防的疾病。


While the influenza virus can cause disease in people of all ages, the elderly – those 65 and above – are disproportionately affected, in terms of both death and hospitalization, with the oldest being at the greatest risk.	虽然流感病毒可以导致所有年龄段的人患病，但65岁及以上的老年人从死亡和住院等角度考量所受影响最大，而且年龄越大风险就越高。


The problem is that older people are more likely to suffer from one or more underlying health conditions, such as heart disease or diabetes.	问题在于老年人更有可能患有一种或以上潜在的身体疾病��如心脏病或糖尿病。


As a result, they are also more likely to experience more severe influenza-related complications.	因此他们出现更严重的流感相关并发症的可能性更大。


Systematic analyses among elderly populations found influenza vaccination – which must be delivered annually, to account for constantly emerging new strains – to be not only successful in protecting people from contracting influenza, but also cost-effective.	对老年人的系统分析发现每年接种能抵御不断出现的新菌株的流感疫苗不仅对保护人们避免罹患流感很有好处，而且成本效益也很高。


The list does not end there.	疫苗带来好处的清单还不止于此。


Diphtheria, caused by the aerobic gram-positive bacterium Corynebacterium diphtheria, is an acute, toxin-mediated disease that can manifest as an upper respiratory tract infection or a skin infection.	因感染好氧革兰氏阳性菌白喉棒状杆菌所造成的白喉是一种毒素介质的急性病，可以表现为上呼吸道感染或皮肤感染。


Most complications of diphtheria – such as myocarditis (inflammation of the middle layer of the heart) and neuritis (inflammation of a peripheral nerve or nerves) – are attributable to the effects of the toxin.	绝大多数白喉并发症——如心肌炎（心脏中间层出现炎症）和神经炎（外周神经或神经出现炎症）——都可以归结为毒素的效果。


The overall fatality rate is 5-10%, with higher death rates among people younger than five and older than 40.	这种病总死亡率为5-10%，但5岁以下儿童和40岁以上群体死亡率较高。


Tetanus, commonly known as “lockjaw,” is a bacterial disease that affects the nervous system, causing painful tightening of muscles throughout the body.	破伤风，俗称“强直症”，是一种神经系统的细菌性疾病，可以导致全身肌肉痛苦的收紧。


It does not lead to a very high number of deaths among the elderly; but, given that it is preventable, any number higher than zero is unacceptable.	这种病并不会导致老年人大量死亡； 但鉴于这种病可以预防，大于零的任何致死率都是不可接受的。


Then there is pertussis.	还有百日咳。


We do not know precisely the extent to which it affects the elderly, because the disease is badly underdiagnosed and underreported in all age groups.	我们对这种疾病在老年人中的患病率并不掌握准确的数据，因为这种病在所有年龄段的诊断和报告率都被严重低估。


But the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices thinks that the burden of disease is at least 100 times greater than currently reported.	但免疫实践咨询委员会认为这种病带来的负担至少比目前报告的要高100倍。


The Tdap vaccine, which protects adults from diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis, could reduce this burden considerably.	保护成年人避免罹患白喉、破伤风和百日咳的Tdap疫苗可以让这方面的负担大大减轻。


Another vaccine, called Td, protects against tetanus and diphtheria, but not pertussis.	还有一种叫Td的疫苗预防不了百日咳，但能预防破伤风和白喉。


A Td booster should be given every ten years.	Td预防针应每10年注射一次。


Finally, there is pneumococcal disease, a bacterial infection caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, which can cause pneumonia, meningitis, or bloodstream infection (sepsis).	最后还有肺炎球菌传染病，这是一种由肺炎链球菌引发的细菌感染，有可能引发肺炎、脑膜炎或血流感染（败血症）。


Depending on which complications occur, symptoms may include cough, abrupt onset of fever, chest pain, chills, shortness of breath, stiff neck, disorientation, and sensitivity to light.	根据并发症的不同，相关症状可能包括咳嗽、突发性发热、胸痛、寒战、气短、颈部僵硬、神志不清和畏光。


Pneumococcal disease can lead to brain damage, deafness, tissue damage (potentially even requiring the amputation of limbs), and death.	肺炎球菌传染病可以导致脑损伤、耳聋、组织损伤（甚至可能需要截肢）和死亡。


In the US alone, pneumococcal pneumonia, bloodstream infections, and meningitis kill tens of thousands of people each year, including 18,000 adults aged 65 years and above.	仅在美国，肺炎球菌性肺炎、血液感染和脑膜炎每年致死的人数以万计，包括65岁及以上的18,000名成年人。


Two main types of pneumococcal vaccine available for older adults – the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) – could ameliorate the situation.	适用于老年人的肺炎球菌疫苗主要有两种——23价肺炎球菌多糖疫苗（PPV23）和肺炎球菌结合疫苗（PCV13）——都可以控制肺炎球菌传染病。


Thanks to child immunization programs, fewer children die each year from vaccine-preventable diseases.	多亏开展了儿童免疫项目，每年很少有儿童死于疫苗可以预防的疾病。


A similar, concentrated effort is now needed to produce similar benefits for adults, especially the elderly.	现在需要开展类似的集中项目，为成年人，尤其是老年人提供类似的保护。


By viewing vaccination as a lifelong priority, we can help people remain active and productive for as long as possible, benefiting them, their communities, and the world.	通过将免疫接种作为终身的健康重点，我们可以帮助人们尽可能延长活跃和富有成效的生活，从而为他们本人、所在群体和世界带来好处。


Valuing the United Nations	联合国的价值


MELBOURNE – There is nothing like exposure to smart and idealistic young people to make jaded and world-weary policymakers and commentators feel better about the future.	墨尔本—没有什么比接触理想主义睿智青年更能激发疲倦厌世的决策者和评论家对未来的希望了。 我刚刚有过这一体验。


I have just had that experience meeting delegates to the 22nd World Model United Nations Conference, which brought together in Australia more than 2,000 students from every continent and major culture to debate peace, development, and human rights, and the role of the UN in securing them.	他们是来自各大洲、代表各大主要文化的2 000多名学生。 他们讨论了和平、发展和人权问题，以及联合国在保障这些方面所起到的作用。


What impressed me most is how passionately this generation of future leaders felt about the relevance and capacity of the UN system.	令我印象最深刻的是这群新一代未来领袖对联合国系统的意义和责任的激情。


They are right: the UN can deliver when it comes to national security, human security, and human dignity.	他们是正确的：在国家安全、人类安全和人道尊严问题上，联合国可以起到作用。


But, as I told them, they have a big task of persuasion ahead of them.	但是，我告诉他们，有一个说服的大问题摆在他们面前。


No organization in the world embodies as many dreams, yet provides so many frustrations, as the United Nations.	世界上没有哪个组织能像联合国那样被寄予如此多的梦想，同时带来如此多的沮丧。 在联合国安理会的历史上，大部分时间里它都是超级大国角力的工具；


For most of its history, the Security Council has been the prisoner of great-power maneuvering; the General Assembly a theater of empty rhetoric; the Economic and Social Council a largely dysfunctional irrelevance; and the Secretariat, for all the dedication and brilliance of a host of individuals, alarmingly inefficient.	经济和社会理事会只是个毫无用处的枝节； 而秘书处成员尽管无不由鞠躬精粹、才华横溢的个人充任，却总是做不出成绩。


My own efforts to advance the cause of UN reform when I was Australia’s foreign minister were about as quixotic and unproductive as anything I have ever tried to do.	我在澳大利亚外交部长任上为推进联合国改革所做的努力都沦为了泡影，毫无成果可言，一如我对其他事情的尝试。


Overhauling Secretariat structures and processes to reduce duplication, waste, and irrelevance?	改革秘书处结构和程序以减少叠床架屋、浪费和无用功？


Forget it.	省省吧。


Changing the composition of the Security Council to ensure that it began to reflect the world of the twenty-first century, not that of the 1950’s?	改变安理会组成以确保它能够反映21世纪而不是20世纪50年代的世界？


No way.	门都没有。


But I have also had some exhilarating experiences of the UN at its best.	但我也有过一些关于最佳联合国的愉快体验。


The peace plan for Cambodia in the early 1990’s, for example, dragged the country back from hellish decades of horrifying genocide and ugly and protracted civil war.	比如，20世纪90年代初的柬埔寨和平计划将这个国家从几十年的大屠杀炼狱和长期野蛮内战中解救了出来。


Likewise, the Chemical Weapons Convention, steered through the UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, is still the most robust arms-control treaty related to weapons of mass destruction ever negotiated.	类似地，联合国日内瓦裁军会议通过的《化学武器公约》至今仍是人们谈成的最有力的有关大规模杀伤性武器的武装管制条约。


Perhaps one experience stands out above all.	也许有一次经验是最有意义的。


In 2005, on the UN’s 60th anniversary, the General Assembly, convening at head of state and government level, unanimously endorsed the concept of states’ responsibility to protect populations at risk of genocide and other mass atrocity crimes.	2005年，在联合国成立六十周年之际，超越国家和政府水平的联合国大会一致通过了一国具有保护其人民免受大屠杀和其他大规模残暴罪行伤害义务的概念。


With that vote, the international community began to eradicate the shameful indifference that accompanied the Holocaust, Rwanda, Srebrenica, Darfur, and too many similar catastrophes.	这次投票意味着国际社会开始着手根除在纳粹大屠杀、卢旺达、斯雷布雷尼察、达尔富尔和其他类似灾难中的令人羞耻的冷漠。


What needs to be better understood publicly is just how many different roles the UN plays.	需要让民众更好地了解的是联合国到底扮演了多少不同的角色。


The various departments, programs, organs, and agencies within the UN system address a broad spectrum of issues, from peace and security between and within states to human rights, health, education, poverty alleviation, disaster relief, refugee protection, trafficking of people and drugs, heritage protection, climate change and the environment, and much else.	联合国系统的各个部门、项目、分支和机构处理着范围甚广的一系列问题，从国内国际的和平和安全到人权、卫生、贸易、减贫、救灾、保护难民、人口和毒品贩卖、遗产保护、气候变化和环境，等等等等。


What is least appreciated of all is how cost-effectively these agencies – for all their limitations – perform overall, in both absolute and comparative terms.	最值得欣赏的是，不管以绝对值还是相对值衡量，这些机构以极小的成本全体运作着（尽管有着诸多限制）。


The UN’s core functions – leaving aside peacekeeping missions but including its operations at its New York headquarters; at offices in Geneva, Vienna, and Nairobi; and at the five regional commissions around the world – now employ 44,000 people at a cost of around $2.5 billion a year.	如今，联合国的核心功能——不包括维和任务但包括其在纽约总部、日内瓦、维也纳和内罗毕办事处以及在世界各地的五个地区委员会的作业——聘用了44 000人，每年为此支出25亿美元。


That might sound like a lot, but the Tokyo Fire Department spends about the same amount each year, and the Australian Department of Human Services spends $3 billion more (with less staff).	这个数字看起来很大，但东京消防厅每年的支出就达到了相同的规模，而澳大利亚人力资源部的支出要比这多出30亿美元（而且人数更少）。


And that’s just two departments in two of the UN’s 193 member states.	而这只是联合国193个成员国中的两个国家的两个部门。


Even including related programs and organs (like the UN Development Program and the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees), as well as peacekeeping activities (which involve more than 110,000 international military, police, and civilian personnel), the UN system’s total cost is still only around $30 billion a year.	即使包括了相关项目和分支（比如联合国发展项目和联合国难民事务高级专员办公室）以及维和活动（包括110 000多人的国际军队、警察和文职岗位），联合国系统的总成本也只有300亿美元左右一年。


That is less than half the annual budget for New York City, and well under a third of the roughly $105 billion that the US military has been spending each year, on average, in Afghanistan.	这比纽约市年度预算的一半还要少，更是不足美军阿富汗战争平均年支��的三分之一。