The university is founded on the principle that every member of a community deserves the same care and opportunity, and focuses on the delivery of quality health care to those who need it most.	该大学的立校原则是社会的每一个成员都应该获得同样的看护和机会，并注重于为最需要的人实现高质量医疗。


Agnes Binagwaho, a co-founder of UGHE who is a former minister of health and an adjunct professor at Harvard Medical School, once said to me, “Why would I want to raise my children in a nation where all children don’t get the same medical care as they do?”	UGHE联合创始人之一、前卫生部长和哈佛医学院兼职教授阿格尼斯·比纳戈瓦胡（Agnes Binagwaho）曾经对我说：“为什么我要让我的孩子在无法做到所有孩子都能获得同样的医疗看护的国家长大？ ”


Rwanda’s government has already pledged $43 million to UGHE in land and infrastructure support.	卢旺达政府承诺向UGHE提供4,300万美元的土地和基础设施支持。


Its leaders have launched a two-year, part-time Master of Science in Global Health Delivery to teach how to create national health care in developing countries.	其领导人启动了一个两年期不脱产的全球医疗实现科学硕士（Master of Science in Global Health Delivery）项目，教授如何在发展中国家建立全国医疗体系的课程。


Lecturers from Rwanda’s Ministry of Health, Harvard Medical School, Yale University, and Tufts University taught Rwandan students everything from epidemiology to budget management.	来自卢旺达卫生部、哈佛医学院、耶鲁大学和塔夫茨大学的教师向卢旺达学生教授流行病学、预算管理等一系列课程。


Last summer, UGHE began construction on a 250-acre campus in Butaro.	去年夏天，UGHE开始在布塔罗（Butaro）建设占地250英亩的校区。


This year, 250 professionals from as far away as Mexico and Australia will compete for 25 spots on that campus.	今年，250位职业人士将竞争该小区的25个教职，其中不乏远至墨西哥和澳大利亚的人士。


Undergraduate and graduate degrees in nursing and oral health, and non-clinical programs in research and health management, are next.	接下来将要开设护理和口腔医学本科和研究生学位和非临床的研究和健康管理项目。


In 2018, UGHE’s campus will also be home to a school of medicine.	2018年，UGHE还将建立一个药学院。


It will provide space for generations of health professionals to learn how to heal patients, comprehend the sociology of disease, and build the health systems that make a strong society.	它将为一代又一代医疗专业人士提供空间学习如何治愈患者、理解疾病的社会学，以及构建能造就强大社会的卫生体系。


UGHE’s founders believe that, by the time the university celebrates its ten-year anniversary, 480 students will have graduated; another 870 will be earning their degrees; and over 2,500 professionals will have attended executive education courses.	UGHE的创始人们相信，在大学成立十周年之际，将由480名学生毕业； 另有870人在校攻读学位；


They expect that over 1,000 of the students passing through the UGHE’s doors in that first decade will arrive from the rest of Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas.	2,500多位专业人士将参加高级培训课程。 他们预计，在第一个十年中迈入UGHE的1,000多位学生中，将有来自非洲其他国家、亚洲、欧洲和美洲的学生。


Rwandans will invite these international students to visit their communities to observe their traditions and learn how to care for their people.	卢旺达将邀请这些国际学生参观卢旺达社区，观察卢旺达的传统，学习如何照顾卢旺达人民。


The young men and women will attend Rwandans’ weddings and funerals, learn to prepare and enjoy their foods, and acquire some of their language, the portal through which to view their sturdy values.	年轻人们将参加卢旺达人的婚礼和葬礼，品尝卢旺达食物，学习一些当地语言 ，这些都是了解卢旺达人价值观的钥匙。


Rwandans will teach their international guests that in Africa, family is an all-encompassing concept, and that, in Rwanda, an entire generation treats the next as its own children.	卢旺达人将教会他们的国际客人们，在非洲，家庭是一个包罗万象的概念，而在卢旺达，一代人将下一代人全体都视为自己的孩子。


The international network of UGHE alumni, unified by their commitment to realize health equity for their own communities, will become a global force for change.	UGHE的国际校友网络将致力于实现各自社区的健康平等，他们将成为全球变革力量。


UGHE will also strengthen Rwandan society.	UGHE还将强化卢旺达社会。


Though regarded by many as one of the safest and least corrupt societies in the world, Rwanda faces a great shortage of doctors and nurses.	尽管卢旺达被许多人认为是全世界最安全、腐败程度最低的社会之一，但它仍面临医护人员的严重短缺。


There are 684 physicians in Rwanda, a total that is far below the 1,182 physicians proposed by the Ministry of Health, and only 27% of the World Health Organization’s recommended minimum of 2,576 physicians.	卢旺达有684名医生，这个数字远远低于其卫生部提出的1,182名医生的目标，也仅占世界卫生组织所建议的2,576名医生的27%。


UGHE has already generated jobs, by hiring local laborers, and has increased access to the region, by creating new roads.	UGHE通过雇用本地劳动力创造了就业岗位，通过建设新公路增加了地区联系。


It could boost Rwanda’s GDP by 0.5% per year, and every dollar invested in UGHE could generate $2 worth of return in economic development, according to McKinsey & Company.	这每年可以给卢旺达带来0. 5%的GDP提振，而据麦肯锡公司的研究，投入UGHE的每一美元可以创造价值2美元的经济发展回报。


Some social scientists assert that poverty is not just a matter of poor nutrition, lack of medical care, and inadequate shelter; it also means exclusion from global networks of trade, science and commerce.	一些社会科学家主张，贫困不仅仅意味着营养不良、缺医少药、家徒四壁； 也意味着被排斥在全球贸易、科学和商业网络之外。


This isolation is pernicious, because it destroys people’s hope and aspirations for a better life.	这种孤立是致命的，因为它摧毁了人们的希望和获得更好的生活的雄心。


UGHE will be Rwanda’s newest institution, a public-private collaboration based on traditional values: community, trust, hard work, and optimism about the future.	UGHE将是卢旺达最新的机构，一个基于传统价值观——社区、信任、努力工作和对未来保持乐观的公私合作项目。


It will integrate each citizen of Rwanda into global networks of learning.	它将让所有卢旺达公民融入全球学习网络。


The Rwandans will accomplish this, as they do many things, because they believe that the only investment that can bring infinite returns is in their children, and because graduates of the University of Global Health Equity will be their sons and daughters, too.	卢旺达人民将会实现这一成就，一如他们在其他许多事情上的成就，因为他们相信唯一能够带来无限回报的投资是投资于下一代，也因为全球健康平等性大学的毕业生们也将拥有自己的儿女。


The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games	沙特王子的危险的战争游戏


TEL AVIV – A series of stunning political developments, originating in Saudi Arabia, has been roiling an already volatile Middle East.	特拉维夫—源自沙特阿拉伯的一系列令人震惊的政治形势发展状况让已经动荡不堪的中东再掀波澜。


Is a major new war in the offing?	一场新的大战近在眼前？


Saudi Arabia’s ambitious 32-year-old crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (widely known by his initials, MBS), who is overseeing an historic (and destabilizing) transformation of the Kingdom’s economy, has ordered the arrest of many of the country’s most powerful princes and officials.	沙特阿拉伯雄心勃勃的32岁王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（以首字母组合MBS闻名天下）主导着沙特王国的历史性（也是破坏性的）经济转型。 他下令逮捕了大量沙特最有权势的王子和官员。


The move, framed as an anti-corruption drive, is a brazen bid to consolidate power.	这场打着反腐旗号的运动实则是赤裸裸的功过权力。


But MBS’s ambitions extend far beyond his country’s borders.	但MBS的企图远远不仅局限于国内。


On the same day, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation in a live television broadcast from Riyadh, accusing Iran of causing “devastation and chaos” through its meddling in other countries.	同一天，黎巴嫩总理哈里里在利雅得的电视直播现场宣布辞职，指责伊朗对其他国家的干预导致了“灾难和混乱”。


When, days later, Riyadh was targeted by a long-range missile launched from Yemen by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, the Saudis lost no time in warning Iran of a possible war.	几天后，伊朗支持的也门胡赛叛军发射长程导弹打击利雅得，沙特随即警告伊朗准备开战。


Saudi leaders also denounced Hezbollah – Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shia militia – for aiding the Houthis.	沙特领导人还谴责真主党——伊朗支持的黎巴嫩什叶派军阀——援助胡赛武装。


Citing the inclusion of Hezbollah members in Lebanon’s government, Saudi Arabia accused the country of declaring war on the Kingdom, and ordered its citizens to leave the country.	沙特阿拉伯说，黎巴嫩政府接受真主党成员进入政府，这是对沙特王国的宣战，并命令沙特公民离开黎巴嫩。


MBS clearly hopes to establish Saudi Arabia as the Persian Gulf’s sole hegemon, and the protector of Sunni Islam throughout the Middle East.	MBS显然是希望让沙特阿拉伯独霸波斯湾，并成为全中东逊尼派伊斯兰教的保护人。


But his efforts increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.	但他的行动越来越像是鲁莽的赌徒。


Saudi Arabia has already suffered from the farcical failure of its blockade on Qatar, not to mention its two disastrous attempts to stem Iranian advances in Syria and Yemen.	沙特阿拉伯封锁卡塔尔的行动已经遭到了可笑的失败，更不用说在叙利亚和也门两次阻止伊朗的灾难性惨败了。


Add to that MBS’s ham-fisted political purge, and the escalation in Lebanon may be viewed as a desperate gambit.	再加上MBS的铁腕政治清洗，黎巴嫩局势的升级可以看成是孤注一掷。


Yet provoking Iran is probably not in Saudi Arabia’s best interests.	但挑衅伊朗或许并不符合沙特阿拉伯的最佳利益。


As MBS knows all too well, the Kingdom cannot match Iran’s military might.	MBS心知肚明，沙特王国的军事实力比不过伊朗。


And his likely back-up plan – increasing security cooperation with Israel – might not work as he would like.	而他的备用计划——加强与以色列的安全合作——可能也无法如他所愿那样奏效。


True, Israel’s chief of staff, General Gadi Eisenkot, spoke in a rare interview with a Saudi newspaper about the “many shared interests” between the two countries.	诚然，以色列参谋长艾森克特（Gadi Eisenkot）将军罕见地在接受沙特报纸采访时说两国有“诸多共同利益”。


Moreover, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman has warned that Israel would not permit the consolidation of a Shia “axis in Syria.”	此外，国防部长利伯曼（Avigdor Lieberman）也警告说，以色列不允许什叶派“叙利亚轴心”得到巩固。


And Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will not allow Iran to gain military ground and naval footholds in Syria.	而总理内塔尼亚胡更是明确表态，以色列不会允许伊朗在叙利亚赢得军事基地和海军立足点。


But it is folly to think that Israel would engage in full-scale war north of its border for Saudi Arabia’s sake.	但认为以色列会为了沙特阿拉伯的命运而全面涉足北部边境的战事简直愚不可及。


It would not even be the first time Israel frustrated Saudi Arabia’s expectations of an intervention.	这甚至不是第一次以色列让沙特阿拉伯所期望的干预落空。


In 2012, Netanyahu did not follow through on threats to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.	2012年，内塔尼亚胡威胁要打击伊朗的核设施，但并未兑现。


More recently, Israel refused to intervene in the Syrian civil war against Bashar al-Assad’s Shia-affiliated Alawite regime.	后来以色列又拒绝干预推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德的阿拉维派（属于什叶派）政权叙利亚内战。


In fact, Israel has taken great pains to avoid being sucked into that conflict, even as it has scaled up aerial attacks on arms convoys headed for Hezbollah, which has been attempting to open a second front against Israel on the Golan.	事实上，以色列为了避免卷入这场冲突而不惜付出沉重代价，虽然它加大了对向真主党靠拢的武装的空袭，这些武装试图在格兰高地开辟针对以色列的第二战场。


Yet it would be irresponsible to dismiss the idea of war altogether.	但就此宣判战争思维死刑也是不负责任的。


After all, wars on Israel’s northern front have not always been premeditated.	毕竟，在以色列北境所爆发战争并不总是有预谋的。


And an increasingly self-confident Assad no longer seems resigned to Israel’s insistence that its air force should have full freedom of action in Syria and Lebanon: his anti-aircraft batteries have started to respond to Israeli military flights over Syria.	而日益自信的阿萨德政府也不再默认以色列的坚持——其空军有在叙利亚和黎巴嫩开展行动的完全的自由。 阿萨德的防空部队已经开始对以色列在叙利亚上空的战机飞行有所反应。


On November 11, Israeli forces shot down a Syrian drone.	11月11日，以色列部队击落一架叙利亚无人机。


Moreover, Israel has established a new red line in Syria: the protection of Syria’s Druze community, with whom Israel’s own highly loyal Druze citizens have strong bonds.	此外，以色列给叙利亚划定了新的红线：保护叙利亚德鲁兹派，他们与以色列自己的高度忠诚的德鲁兹派公民有着密切的联系。


On November 3, after rebel forces killed nine people in a Druze village inside Syria, the Israeli military warned that it would intervene to prevent the occupation of the village.	11月3日，在叛军杀害了叙利亚一个德鲁兹派村庄的九个人后，以色列军方警告它将进行干预以防村庄被占。


While Israel is not interested in waging all-out war, it does not see such a scenario as entirely implausible.	尽管以色列没有兴趣发动全面战争，但也并未完全排除这一情形。


In September, it conducted its largest military exercise in two decades, with its air, sea, and large ground forces spending two weeks simulating conflict on both the Syrian and Lebanese fronts.	9月，以色列进行了二十年来规模最大的军事演习，空军、海军和大量地面部队用两周时间进行了叙利亚和黎巴嫩方向上的冲突模拟。


A massive evacuation of northern Israel’s civilian population was also simulated.	以色列北部还进行了人口大量撤离模拟。


After two wars with Hezbollah that ended in a sort of tie, Israel has made it clear that, in any new conflict, the goal would be unequivocal victory.	在两次与真主党交战打和之后，以色列明确表示，若爆发新冲突，将以全面胜利为目标。


Hezbollah, drained by its costly effort to support Assad in Syria’s civil war, is not particularly eager to engage in a showdown with Israel now.	真主党为了支持叙利亚内战中的阿萨德而付出了沉重代价，眼下他们并不特别急切地想和以色列摊牌。


Iran, for its part, has avoided disrupting Lebanon’s stability and always-precarious truce with Israel, in order to enable Hezbollah to focus on Syria.	至于伊朗，为了让真主党专注于叙利亚，它也避免干扰黎巴嫩的稳定和总是岌岌可危的与以色列的停战状态。


But Saudi Arabia would welcome a clash between Israel and Hezbollah, believing that it would inevitably lead to a confrontation between Israel and Iran.	但沙特阿拉伯肯定乐见以色列和真主党之间爆发冲突，认为这将不可避免地导致以色列和伊朗之间的对峙。


This is particularly true now: as the fighting in Syria subsides, the Saudi-led Sunni axis is eager to compensate for its losses there, and thus is pushing Lebanon as the next battlefield.	目前尤其如此：随着叙利亚战事日益平息，沙特领导的逊尼派轴心急切地想要捞回在叙利亚的损失，因此正在将黎巴嫩当作下一个战场。


As it stands, Lebanon remains split between Hezbollah’s pro-Syria and Iran camp – which includes President Michel Aoun – and Hariri’s “March 14 Alliance” of Sunni, anti-Syrian groups, which Saudi Arabia hopes to push into the conflict it so desires.	目前，黎巴嫩仍是两方对峙，一边是真主党的亲叙利亚和伊朗阵营——其中包括了总统奥恩，另一方是又逊尼派反叙利亚集团组成的哈里里的“3月14日联盟”——沙特阿拉伯希望将它推向其极其渴望看到的冲突。


Of course, engaging in a war led by powers that view Lebanon merely as a piece of a broader strategic puzzle is not in the country’s best interests.	当然，加入一场由将黎巴嫩仅仅是为广义战略拼图的一部分的力量所主导的战争并不符合国家的最佳利益。


It is not in Hariri’s best interests, either; after all, such a conflict would deny his family’s construction companies the opportunity to win lavish contracts for rebuilding Syria.	这也不符合哈里里的最佳利益； 毕竟，如此冲突将让其家族的建筑公司无法赢得利润丰厚的叙利亚重建合同。


Indeed, it seems highly likely that Hariri is in Riyadh against his will.	事实上，哈里里的利雅得发言很有可能是违心的。


As MBS plays with fire, US President Donald Trump has offered him broad support, owing to his own animosity toward Iran and, perhaps, the hope that Saudi Arabia will support a US-led peace plan on Palestine.	MBS在玩火，美国总统特朗普则给了他相当广泛的支持，这是因为特朗普自己十分憎恶伊朗，也许还希望沙特阿拉伯支持美国领导的巴勒斯坦和平计划。


But a more benign enticement must urgently be found.	但必须立刻找到更加良好的动机。


After all, as the Syrian conflict has starkly demonstrated, wars usually defeat their own purposes.	毕竟，叙利亚冲突清楚地表明，战争常常会超出原本的目的。


Saving America from Trump’s Tax Reform	让美国免遭特朗普的税收改革荼毒


BERKELEY – US President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans had an opportunity – and a responsibility – to reform the US tax code to address three major economic challenges: slowing growth, rising inequality, and a looming fiscal crisis.	发自伯克利——美国总统特朗普和国会共和党人有机会——也有责任——去改革美国的税收法规以应对三大经济挑战：增长放缓，不平等加剧以及日益逼近的财政危机。


Sadly, they shirked their responsibility by passing a bill that squandered this opportunity.	但可悲的是，他们通过的法案却让这一机会白白溜走，也放弃了自己的责任。


At a time when US public debt as a share of GDP is already at a post-war high, the legislation will add another $1.5-2.2 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.	在美国公共债务相对GDP的比率已到达二战后新高之时，这一立法将在未来十年额外增加1. 5~2.


At a time when income and wealth inequality is soaring, an estimated 80% of the tax cuts will go to the top 1% by 2027.	2万亿美元的赤字； 在收入和财富不平等状况飙升之时，估计在2027年80％的减税收益将落入收入最高那1％人的囊中；


And at a time when the economy has been growing steadily for 33 quarters and is approaching full employment, the legislation will have only a modest effect on growth.	在经济连续33个季度实现增长并即将充分就业的时候，却通过了一项只对经济增长影响不大的立法。


To be sure, a significant cut in the corporate tax rate was long overdue.	无可否认，我们早就应该大幅下调企业税率了。


The legislation will likely stimulate investment and encourage domestic and foreign companies to do business in the United States.	立法可能会刺激投资并鼓励国内外企业在美国开展业务。


But, by an overwhelming majority, economists predict that the increase in the growth rate will fall far short of the annual gain of one percentage point (or more) hyped by Trump and his economic advisers.	然而绝大多数经济学家却预测此举对经济增长率的提升将远低于特朗普和他的经济顾问们吹嘘的每年1%（或更多）。


Moreover, there is no credible evidence to support the Trump administration’s declaration that the trickle-down benefits of faster growth will “increase average household income in the United States by, very conservatively, $4,000 annually.”	此外也没有切实证据支持特朗普政府关于更快增长带来的滴流效益将“在极为保守估计下令美国家庭平均收入每年增加4000美元”的声明。


A large body of economic research shows that, at most, 20-25% of the benefits of corporate tax cuts will accrue to labor; the rest will go to shareholders, about one-third of whom are foreign.	大量的经济研究表明，公司减税的收益中最多只有20~25％会累积在劳动者身上； 其余的都会被企业股东收走（其中1/3还是外资股东）。


The biggest beneficiaries will be the top 1% of domestic households which own about half of outstanding shares.	而最大受益者将是拥有大约一半流通股份的那收入顶层的1％家庭。


Nor is there evidence to support the administration’s claim that the legislation will pay for itself.	同时也没有证据支持政府所谓该项立法可以实现自身收支相抵的说法。


As many of those who voted for it well know, the expected gains in growth will yield at most about one-third of lost revenues.	许多投赞成票者都明确知道预期的增长收益最多相当于税收损失的大约1/3。


But they are playing a cynical game.	但他们正在玩的是一个只顾眼前不顾后果的游戏。


By reducing revenues now, they will be in a position to justify cuts to services benefiting lower- and middle-class Americans down the road – all in the name of “fiscal responsibility” and “entitlement reform.”	他们通过减少当下的财政收入来证明减税是为中低阶层美国人服务的——所有这一切都被掩盖在“财政责任”和“权益改革”的名义之下。


Worse yet, the tax legislation is riddled with provisions that will dramatically increase inequality and limit economic and social mobility.	更糟糕的是，这项税收立法里充斥着各类将大大增加不平等状况并限制经济和社会流动性的条款。


By cutting the top income-tax rate, doubling the threshold at which inheritances are taxed, and lowering taxes on pass-through businesses, the legislation amounts to a handout for the wealthy, paid for by the middle class and future generations.	通过降低最高收入者承受的税率，将遗产征税的门槛增加一倍，以及降低针对传递税收企业的税收，该立法等同于让中产阶级和子孙后代出资来为富人发钱。


The legislation also prioritizes investment in physical and financial capital over what the US really needs: more investment in human capital and lifelong learning to help workers and communities cope with the disruptive effects of automation and artificial intelligence.	该立法还优先考虑对实物和金融资本进行投资，却忽视了那些美国真正急需投资的领域：帮助劳动者和社区应对自动化和人工智能破坏性影响的更多人力资本建设和终身学习。


Instead of expanding the earned income tax credit to encourage work, the legislation will, for the first time in American history, impose a higher tax rate on employment income than on income earned by proprietors and partnerships.	这一立法非但没有通过扩大所得税抵免来鼓励就业，而是在美国历史上第一次对员工收入征收高于企业主和合伙人收入的税收。


In addition, the legislation is an unabashedly partisan attack on Democratic-leaning states and cities.	此外立法还对偏向民主党的州和城市发动了明目张胆的党派进攻。


For example, the bill imposes an across-the-board limit on mortgage deductions, which will have a disproportionately adverse effect on people living in high-cost Democratic strongholds such as New York and California.	例如，该法案对抵押贷款的抵扣进行了全面限制，这将对生活在纽约和加利福尼亚等民主党主导高生活成本地区的人们带来了不合理比例的负面影响。


Currently, the median price for a home in San Francisco is $1.5 million; in Kansas, a reliably Republican state, it is $187,000.	目前旧金山的房产中位价格为150万美元，而在堪萨斯这个共和党主导州则为18. 7万。


And if that weren’t bad enough, the bill intentionally penalizes higher-tax states like California and New York, by capping the federal deduction for state and local income and property taxes.	如果这还不够糟糕的话，法案还故意借助为州和地方收入和财产税的联邦抵扣额设定上限惩罚的方式去惩罚加州和纽约等高税率州。


Ironically, this provision will hurt growth, by raising the marginal tax rate on millions of workers in the country’s most productive locales and industries.	讽刺的是这一条款将通过提高该国生产力最高的地区和行业的数百万劳动者的边际税率来破坏增长。


And it will make it harder for state and local governments to finance necessary investments in innovation, infrastructure, and higher education – investments that are largely the states’ responsibility but are pillars of overall US competitiveness.	这将使得州和地方政府难以为创新，基础设施和高等教育方面的必要投资提供资金——这些投资在很大程度上由各州负责，但却是美国整体竞争力的支柱。


A majority of Americans already recognize that the tax law is deeply flawed and full of false promises.	大多数美国人已经认识到该税法存在缺陷且充满虚假的承诺。


After failing to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), congressional Republicans rammed through a complicated tax package that will please their wealthy donors, but disappoint many of their voters.	在废除《平价医疗法案》的企图遭遇失败后，国会共和党人转而强行通过一个复杂的税收方案来取悦自己那些金主们，同时却让很多选民大失所望。


Given the tax law’s unpopularity, it will be interesting to see what happens in the midterm congressional elections this November.	鉴于该税法是如此不受欢迎，我们可以拭目以待今年十一月份的国会中期选举会发生什么样的状况。


In the meantime, progressive federalists in forward-looking states and cities must get to work picking up the pieces of the wreckage the federal government is leaving in its wake.	与此同时，具有前瞻性的州和城市的进步联邦主义者必须开始收拾联邦政府因上述做法而留下的残局。


Keep an eye out for the many ways states will re-orient their tax regimes away from income taxes, and toward property and sales taxes, including on services, which account for more than 70% of economic activity but have traditionally been taxed lightly at the state and local level.	我们也得留意各州重新将税收制度从所得税转向征收财产税和销售税——其中包括占了经济活动70％以上，但传统上在州和地方一级被从轻征税的服务行为——的多种做法。


In some states, there is even talk of reclassifying state taxes so that they qualify as tax-deductible charitable contributions.	在一些州甚至提出要将州税收进行重新分类，好让它们有资格被归为可抵税的慈善捐款。


Similarly, some have proposed replacing state income taxes with payroll taxes that employers can deduct at the federal level.	同时还有些州提议用雇主可以在联邦一级抵扣的工资税替代州所得税。


Keep an eye out as well for a sizeable increase in outcome-oriented state and local funding for efforts to reduce homelessness and reform the criminal-justice system.	同时也要注意那些以结果为导向的，用于减少无家可归者数量和改革刑事司法系统的州和地方资助的大幅度增加。


Owing to its high marginal income tax rates and constraints on residential property taxes, California will likely be at the forefront of fiscal innovation.	由于边际所得税税率较高且住宅物业税受限，加利福尼亚州可能会带头进行财政创新。


Already, multiple reform proposals are circulating, including a ballot initiative to amend Proposition 13 that would dramatically ease existing restrictions on commercial-property taxes.	目前已经流传着多个改革方案，其中包括一项将极大缓解当前对商业地产税限制的第13号州宪法修正案的投票修改动议。


And with the Democrats in full control of the state’s government, measures to counteract the federal law are almost certain to be adopted.	在民主党完全掌控加州州政府的情况下，抵制联邦法的措施几乎肯定会被采纳。


California Governor Jerry Brown, for his part, has called the Republicans’ legislation a “tax monstrosity.”	加利福尼亚州州长杰里·布朗（Jerry Brown）把共和党的立法称之为“税收怪胎”。


He’s right: it’s dreadful policy.	他说得没错：这是个骇人听闻的政策。


Other countries that have reduced taxes on mobile corporate capital have paid for the cuts by increasing value-added taxes and taxes on carbon, dividends, capital gains, and inheritances.	另外一些减免流动企业资本税的国家都通过提高增值税以及碳排放、股息，资本利得和继承税来填补漏洞。


Trump and the Republicans, by contrast, chose to cut taxes on both businesses and their owners, while blowing an unsustainable hole in the federal budget, exacerbating inequality, and imposing new burdens on the most productive parts of the country.	相反，特朗普和共和党人却选择削减企业和企业主的税收，同时放大了联邦预算中不可持续的漏洞，加剧了不平等，并给该国最具生产力的地区加上了新负担。


Still, necessity is the mother of invention.	不过必要性是发明之母。


For progressive federalists in US cities and states – the laboratories of democracy – it is now more necessary than ever to step up and start innovating.	对于身处美国城市和州——也是民主的实验室——的进步联邦主义者来说，现在比以往任何时候都更亟待设置和启动创新工作。


Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment	重振债权人调整


LONDON – With all the protectionist talk coming from US President Donald Trump’s administration, it is surprising that no one has mentioned, much less sought to invoke, an obvious tool for addressing persistent external imbalances: the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement’s “scarce-currency clause.”	伦敦—美国总统特朗普政府大谈保护主义，但令人惊奇的是，没有人提到，更没有人引用一个显而易见的解决顽固性外部失衡的工具：1944年布雷顿森林协议的“稀缺货币条款”。


That clause, contained in Article 7 of the agreement, authorizes countries, “after consultation with the [International Monetary] Fund, temporarily to impose limitations on freedom of exchange operations in the scarce currency”; and it grants those countries “complete jurisdiction in determining the nature of such limitations.”	该款写在协议第七章中，它授权各国“在与[国际货币]基金组织商议后，临时性采取限制稀缺货币的兑换操作自由的措施”； 并授权这些国家“在决定这些限制措施的性质方面的完全的司法管辖权”。


A country’s currency is considered scarce in the foreign-exchange market if it imports more than it exports – which is to say, if it runs a current-account deficit.	一国货币可以认为在外汇市场上属于稀缺，如果该国进口多于出口的话——也就是说，如果该国存在经常项目赤字的话。


The scarce-currency clause has an interesting history.	稀缺货币条款的历史很有意思。


In his original plan for an International Clearing Bank, the British economist John Maynard Keynes proposed an escalating range of sanctions against member states that maintained continuous credit balances (and less onerous sanctions on countries with persistent debt balances).	在英国经济学家凯恩斯的建立国际清算银行的原始计划中，他提出了一套不断升级的制裁机制，针对保持持续信用余额的成员国，而对于持续保持债务余额的国家，采取不那么严厉的制裁。


The idea was to pressure countries to reduce their current-account surpluses.	其思想是要施压各国降低经常项目盈余。


Surplus countries would not be prevented from spending their money freely, but they would not be permitted to hoard it.	盈余国如何花钱不做限制，但不允许囤钱。


The United States, which was by far the world’s largest creditor, understandably refused to go along with Keynes’s proposal.	当时全世界最大的债权国是美国，不难理解，它拒绝同意凯恩斯的方案。


As a result, the IMF was left to provide short-term financial help for deficit countries, and otherwise to uphold the orthodox doctrine of debtor adjustment.	因此，IMF要么为赤字国提供短期金融援助，要么坚持正统的债务人调整教条。


But, to placate the British, Harry Dexter White, the US Treasury official now remembered as the architect of the Bretton Woods Agreement, inserted Article 7 to allow dollar-deprived member states to restrict their purchases of US goods.	但是，为了安抚英国人，现在被视为布雷顿森林协议缔造者的美国财政部官员哈里·德克斯特·怀特（Harry Dexter White）在协议中加入了第七条，允许美元不足的成员国限制购买美国商品。


The scarce-currency clause has remained a dead letter ever since.	此后，稀缺货币条款一直是一纸空文。


In the early postwar years, the US plugged up European countries’ current-account gaps with Marshall Plan funds.	战后早期，美国通过马歇尔计划资金，堵住了欧洲国家的经常项目缺口。


By the early 1970s, the US itself was running trade deficits, and the dollar was in oversupply.	到20世纪70年代初，美国自身也出现了贸易赤字，而美元处于过度供给状态。


The US Congress urged the IMF to invoke the scarce-currency clause against “recalcitrant” surplus countries, but its efforts were in vain.	美国国会敦促IMF援引稀缺货币条款针对“不守规则”的盈余国，但徒劳无功。


As the Princeton University historian Harold James has pointed out, the tables had turned: the US had taken up Keynes’s arguments, but creditor European countries, along with Japan, successfully resisted them.	普林斯顿大学历史学家哈罗德·詹姆斯（Harold James）指出，局面倒转过来，美国拾起了凯恩斯的观点，但作为债权人的欧洲国家以及日本成功地把它挡了回去。


Fast-forward to today.	快进到今天。


Of the world’s four largest economies, only the US suffers persistently weak competitiveness.	在全球四大经济体中，只有美国存在顽固性竞争力低迷。


China, Japan, and Germany, by contrast, are super-competitive.	相反，中国、日本和德国竞争力超群。


And because China has been willing, for its own reasons, to finance the US deficit, the dollar and the renminbi now seem to be locked into misaligned positions.	而因为中国出于自身原因愿意为美国的赤字提供融资，美元和人民币似乎陷入了偏离（misaligned positions ）。


To redress this state of affairs, the economist Vladimir Masch suggests that the US should pursue a plan of “compensated free trade” (CFT), which essentially amounts to a unilateral activation of the scarce-currency clause.	要改变这一状况，经济学家弗拉基米尔·马什（Vladimir Masch）认为美国应该采取“补偿自由贸易”（CFT）计划。 CFT本质上即单方面激活稀缺货币条款。


The Trump administration would set a ceiling on the US trade deficit each year, and then impose limits on major US trading partners’ surpluses.	特朗普政府每年为美国贸易赤字设定一个上限，然后限制美国主要贸易伙伴盈余的上限。


This would largely affect China, Japan, Germany, and Mexico, which contributed $347 billion, $69 billion, $65 billion, and $64 billion, respectively, to the US’s $737 billion trade deficit in 2016.	主要受影响的国家是中国、日本、德国和墨西哥，它们分别占 2016年美国7,370亿美元贸易赤字的3,470亿、690亿、650亿和640亿。


Under Masch’s CFT arrangement, it would be up to each surplus country to limit its exports to the US.	根据马什的CFT安排，各盈余国如何限制对美出口，由它们自己决定。


Countries could exceed their export quotas only if they paid a fine equal to the difference between the value of their actual and allowed exports.	各国如果超出了出口配额，就必须支付等于实际出口额和允许出口额之差的罚款。


And if they tried to export more than allowed without paying the fine, their surplus exports would be blocked.	如果它们想比配额出口更多又不支付罚款，它们的盈余出口将被禁止。


The problem with this plan is that it puts no pressure on Germany to reduce its surpluses with other eurozone countries.	这个计划的问题在于它没有施压德国降低其对其他欧元区国家的盈余。


To be sure, after the 2008 global financial crisis, the European Union did establish a Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure to fine eurozone countries with surpluses exceeding 6% of GDP or deficits exceeding 4% of GDP.	平心而论，2008年全球金融危机后，欧盟确实制定了一个宏观经济失衡程序（Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure，MIP），对盈余超过GDP的6%，或赤字超过GDP的4%的欧元区国家课以罚款。


But the MIP, even if it is in the spirit of Keynes’s proposal for an International Clearing Union, lacks two essential mechanisms.	但虽然MIP的精神与凯恩斯的国际清算联盟方案一致，它缺少两个关键机制。


First, Keynes’s plan would have automatically levied sanctions against persistent creditors, whereas the EU’s framework has proved incapable of doing so.	首先，凯恩斯的计划自动对顽固债权国实施制裁，而欧盟的框架已经证明无力达到这一点。


Germany has run a surplus exceeding 6% of GDP for over a decade with impunity.	德国盈余超过GDP的6%十多年，但一直没有受到惩罚。


Although its surplus vis-à-vis the eurozone recently shrank to under 3% of GDP, that is largely a reflection of impoverished Mediterranean countries importing fewer German goods.	尽管其对欧元区的盈余最近下降到GDP的3%，但这主要是因为穷困潦倒的地中海国家减少了德国商品的进口。


If those countries’ economies recover and return to anything near full employment, the German surplus will likely rebound.	如果这些国家的经济复苏，恢复接近充分就业的状态，德国盈余有可能重新增加。


The MIP’s second flaw is that it lacks the omit protections for debtors that are afforded by the scarce-currency clause.	MIP的第二个缺陷是它缺少稀缺货币条款为债务国所提供的遗漏保护（omit protection）。


Without the ability to devalue their currencies, the only recourse the eurozone’s persistent debtors have is to threaten to leave the single currency.	由于无法让货币贬值，欧元区顽固债务国唯一的出路是威胁退出单一货币。


But, as the Greek crisis demonstrated, this is not a credible threat.	但是，希腊危机证明，这个威胁并不可信。


The result is that imbalances between creditors and debtors have been locked into place.	结果是债权国和债务国之间的失衡无从解决。


One way to unlock current imbalances would be to adapt the Bretton Woods mechanism.	解锁当前失衡状况的一个办法是调整布雷顿森林机制。


Each eurozone member state would pay into a European Monetary Fund in proportion to its national income and level of trade.	各欧元区成员国根据国民收入和贸易水平，出资成立欧洲货币基金组织。


And the Fund would have its own scarce-currency clause, allowing for member states to discriminate against imports from creditor countries.	该组织制定其自身的稀缺货币条款，允许成员国针对债权国的进口实施歧视性措施。


In his wide-ranging speech at the Sorbonne last month, French President Emmanuel Macron called for the creation of a European Monetary Fund, though he did not spell out the details of what he envisions.	在上个月在索尔伯恩（Sorbonne）所做的涵盖面甚广的讲话中，法国总统马克龙便呼吁建立一个欧洲货币基金组织，尽管他并没有具体阐述他所构想的细节。


A mechanism that provides for trade discrimination could potentially violate the EU’s free-trade principles.	一个允许贸易歧视的机制有可能违反欧洲自由贸易原则。


And yet economic integration has always depended on some degree of creditor adjustment.	但经济一体化总是需要依靠一定程度的债权国调整。


Without it, a free-trade system will eventually break down.	若非如此，自由贸易体系最终将解体。


Advocates of open borders can pay now, or they will certainly pay later.	开放边境的支持者们可以现在付出代价，否则，他们将来必将付出代价。


Schrödinger’s Immigrant	薛定谔的移民


PRAGUE – When Central and Eastern European leaders try to explain why they do not want to accept refugees, they tend to contradict one another.	布拉格——当中东欧领导人试图解释为什么不愿接受难民时，他们往往给出相互矛盾的理由。


Some insist that refugees take jobs from natives, which implies that refugees are hard workers; others complain that refugees rely on welfare benefits, which suggests that they work too little.	有些人坚称难民从本土居民那里抢走了工作岗位，暗指难民工作勤奋； 而有人却抱怨难民依赖福利，暗指他们几乎不怎么工作。


Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, for example, argues for the former.	比方说，匈牙利总理维克托·奥尔班是前一种说法的支持者。


Between 2015 and 2016, his government spent more than €50 million ($59 million) on anti-immigrant advertisements, including billboards warning immigrants not to take natives’ jobs.	2015到2016年间，奥尔班政府斥资超过5，000亿欧元（合5，900亿美元）投入反移民广告，其中包括设立广告牌警告移民不要抢夺本地人的工作。


By contrast, Czech politicians such as former Deputy Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, Minister of the Interior Milan Chovanec, and former President Václav Klaus all portray refugees and migrants as freeloaders who have their sights set on generous welfare benefits.	恰恰相反，捷克前副总理安德烈·巴比什、内政部长米兰·切瓦尼和前总理瓦茨拉夫·克劳斯等政界人士将所有难民和移民描绘成死死盯住慷慨福利待遇的不速之客。


And according to the current Czech president, Miloš Zeman, these welfare-seekers can all be lumped into a single category: “Muslims.”	按照现任捷克总统米洛斯·泽曼的说法，这些福利寻求者可以全部被划入“穆斯林”这个简单的分类中。


In light of these contrasting portrayals of refugees, a popular meme has taken off in Central and Eastern Europe: “Schrödinger’s immigrant.”	由于这些对难民完全相反的描述，“薛定谔的移民”这个流行文化基因开始在中东欧形成了。


It is a play on Schrödinger’s cat, which describes a paradox in quantum physics in which a particle can exist in two opposite states simultaneously – like a cat that, having been sealed in a box, is both dead and alive until it is observed.	这种半开玩笑的说法以薛定谔的猫为基础，描述了量子物理学当中的一个悖论，即一个粒子可以同时存在两种截然相反的状态——就像一只猫被封闭在一个盒子里，直到被外界观察之前可以认为它既是死了又是活着。


[Chart]	[图表]


According to the European Social Survey, there is little agreement in Europe about whether refugees and migrants take existing jobs, or actually create new ones (see chart above).	欧洲社会调查结果显示，欧洲人很难就难民和移民究竟是抢走现有工作还是创造新的工作（参见上图）形成一致的看法。


At Odlišnost (Distinction), a collective of academics and journalists, we have reviewed 20 empirical studies to determine the effect that immigrants had on native workers in Europe and the Middle East between 1990 and 2015.	在由学者和记者组成的Odlišnost （差别）杂志，我们为确定1990到2015年间移民对欧洲和中东本土工人的影响回顾了20项实证研究结果。


All told, we found little evidence to support the claim that accepting a reasonable number of refugees and migrants from developing countries deprives native-born workers of employment.	总而言之，我们没有找到多少证据来支持接受来自发展中国家合理数量的难民和移民剥夺了本地出生的劳动者就业机会的说法。


Of course, many of those who don’t believe that immigrants take natives’ jobs still worry that newcomers do not contribute enough in taxes.	当然，很多不相信移民抢走本地工作机会的人仍然担忧新来者无法贡献足够的税收。


There is some truth to this.	这样的状况在某种程度上是切实存在的。


The growing share of immigrants arriving from developing countries includes many less-educated workers, particularly among women, and that can reduce incomes and the overall employment rate for immigrants.	越来越多的移民来自发展中国家，其中包括很多受教育程度不太高的劳动者，尤其是女性，能够导致移民群体收入和总体就业率的下滑。


But high- and low-skill migrants alike contribute to the efficient division of labor in their host countries, because cultural differences make it harder for them to compete with locals.	但无论移民技能高低都能为东道国劳动力的有效分工作出贡献，因为文化差导致使他们很难与当地人展开竞争。


The studies we examined show that, in terms of wages, immigrants from close neighboring countries put a small amount of downward pressure on the wages of low-skill natives.	我们所回顾的研究成果表明在薪酬方面，来自临近国家的移民会造成低技术本地人工资出现轻微下降。


With immigrants from afar, however, this negative effect disappears.	而来自遥远国度的移民则不存在这样的负面影响。


More generally, people from different cultures bring different skills and fresh ideas to the host economy.	更广义的说，来自不同文化的民众为东道国经济注入了不同的技能和新鲜想法。


There is substantial evidence to suggest that birthplace diversity within a country’s college-educated workforce is positively associated with productivity and economic growth.	有充分证据表明一个国家接受高等教育民众其出生地的多样性与该国生产率和经济增长是正相关的。


In the United States, first- or second-generation immigrants founded more than 40% of Fortune 500 companies, including Google, Apple, and Amazon.	在美国，第一或第二代移民创办了超过40%的财富500强企业，其中包括谷歌、苹果和亚马逊。


This is not surprising.	这丝毫没有什么值得大惊小怪的。


After all, migrants tend to be more educated than their compatriots back home.	毕竟，移民往往比自己的同胞接受过更多的教育。


In Austria in 2015, the ratio of Syrian and Iraqi asylum applicants with a college education was the same as that among natives.	2015年在奥地利，申请庇护资格的叙利亚和伊拉克人中接受过大学教育的比例与本地人是基本相同的。


Given this, immigrants from afar may actually contribute even more economically than those from neighboring countries.	有鉴于此，来自遥远国度的移民实际甚至有可能比邻国移民对经济做出的贡献更大。


The University of Louvain economist Frédéric Docquier and his colleagues have been researching the economic impact that immigrants from developing countries have on host-country budgets, wages, and consumer markets.	鲁汶大学经济学家多克尔及其同事一直致力于研究发展中国家移民对东道国预算、工资和消费市场所产生的影响。


In a forthcoming study on immigrants who arrived in 20 OECD countries between 1991 and 2015, they find that natives seem to have benefited significantly from immigrants’ contributions.	在一项即将发布的针对1991到2015年间抵达20个经合组织国家移民的研究中，他们发现本地人似乎从移民的贡献中得到的好处很大。


Even at first sight, the argument, often made by anti-immigrant politicians, that refugees and migrants are coming to European countries to exploit their social-welfare programs, seems odd.	即使第一眼看上去,反移民政客常常提出的难民和移民来到欧洲国家就是要利用它们的社会福利计划的论调也是非常奇怪的。


Germany and Sweden are generally seen as having the most generous migrant benefits, yet there is no uniform flow of people toward those two countries.	德国和瑞典往往被认为是移民福利最慷慨的国家，但抵达欧洲的移民也并不都是前往上述两个国家的。


In 2016, Syrians did flee to Germany and Scandinavia (see graph below).	2016年，叙利亚人的确逃往德国和斯堪地纳维亚（参见下图）。


But Eritreans often headed for Switzerland, and many Afghanis applied for asylum in Hungary.	但厄立特里亚人却往往前往瑞士，而许多阿富汗人则向匈牙利提交庇护请求。


[Graph]	[图表]


Economists weighing this issue through the lens of “revealed preference theory” would argue that asylum-seekers are analytical decision-makers who seek out countries such as Germany for its low unemployment rate.	透过“显性偏好理论”来权衡这个问题的经济学家会认为庇护寻求者是具有分析能力的决策者，德国失业率低是他们选择德国的理由。


But researchers who have examined non-economic data, not least migrants’ responses to surveys, have good reason to cast doubt on this assumption.	但那些研究非经济数据而不只是移民对调查问卷回答的研究者有充分的理由怀疑这一假设。


It turns out that asylum applicants typically have little to no knowledge of a country’s labor-market conditions or welfare benefits before they arrive.	事实证明庇护申请人往往在抵达前对一个国家的劳动力市场状况或福利待遇一无所知或知之甚少。


Rather, they are usually guided by the circumstances of their journey.	相反，他们在旅途中的所见所闻往往决定了他们的去向。


And when they do consciously choose a country, they tend to look for places where their compatriots or relatives already live, or where they already know the language, owing to past colonial ties.	而当他们有意选择一个国家时，他们往往会寻找同胞或亲属已经生活的国家，或者前往那些因为过去的殖民关系他们已经掌握了语言的国家生活。


It is intuitively plausible that refugees could be drawn to countries with faster, more generous asylum procedures.	认为难民可以被更快更宽松的庇护程序所吸引似乎是有根据的。


But studies have repeatedly failed to establish any meaningful correlation between welfare provision and refugees’ choice of destination.	但研究结果却一再未能证明福利供应和难民目的地选择是有联系的。


What little knowledge of different countries’ asylum policies refugees do have often is based on rumors, usually heard from smugglers who have little concern for their interests.	难民对不同国家庇护政策所掌握的少的可怜的知识往往来自于传闻，也就是来自毫不关注他们利益的走私者的道听途说。


Nativist politicians will undoubtedly dismiss “Schrödinger’s immigrant” as a liberal factotum.	本土政客无疑会将“薛定谔的移民”视为自由的杂役承担者。


But the meme will remain popular for as long as nativists hide behind the language of popular economics.	但只要本土主义者躲藏在流行经济学理论背后这样的文化基因就将始终活跃着。


The immigration debate should be decided on its merits, not through the politics of fear.	我们应当让趋利避害、而不是政治恐惧决定移民辩论的结果  。


Are the Sustainable Development Goals Achievable?	联合国可持续发展目标能实现吗？


HONG KONG – US President Donald Trump’s recent speech at the United Nations has gotten a lot of attention for its bizarre and bellicose rhetoric, including threats to dismantle the Iran nuclear deal and “totally destroy” North Korea.	发自香港——美国总统特朗普最近在联合国演讲中发表的一番古怪好斗的言论——其中包括威胁退出伊朗核协议和“彻底摧毁”朝鲜——引发了外界的极大关注。


Underlying his declarations was a clear message: the sovereign state still reigns supreme, with national interests overshadowing shared objectives.	他的声明明确传达了一个信息：特朗普认为主权国家仍然至高无上，国家利益也可凌驾于人类共同目标。


This does not bode well for the Sustainable Development Goals.	这对实现联合国可持续发展目标可不是一个好兆头。


Adopted by the UN just a year before Trump’s election, the SDGs will require that countries cooperate on crucial global targets related to climate change, poverty, public health, and much else.	在特朗普上台的前一年，联合国通过了可持续发展目标，要求各国在气候变化，贫困，公共卫生等关键性全球目标上进行合作。


In an age of contempt for international cooperation, not to mention entrenched climate-change denial in the Trump administration, is achieving the SDGs wishful thinking?	但在这个蔑视国际合作的年代——更别提在特朗普政府中根深蒂固的否定气候变化的信条——实现可持续发展目标看来只是一厢情愿。


The SDGs were always bound to meet strong headwinds, owing to technological disruption, geopolitical rivalry, and widening social inequality.	由于来自颠覆性技术的冲击、地缘政治对抗以及日益扩大的社会不平等，联合国可持续发展目标的实现一直都面临着强大阻力。


But populist calls for nationalist policies, including trade protectionism, have intensified those headwinds considerably.	而那些民粹主义者呼吁实施的民族主义政策（包括贸易保护主义）则更增强了这些阻力。


Simply put, populations are losing faith that the global development orthodoxy of good governance (including monetary and fiscal discipline) and free markets can benefit them.	简而言之，普罗大众已经开始怀疑良好的治理（包括货币和财政纪律）和自由市场这类全球发展正统路线可以使自己受益。


With all of the advanced countries confronting serious fiscal constraints, and emerging markets weakened by lower commodity prices, paying for global public goods has become all the more unappealing.	由于所有发达国家在财政上捉襟见肘，而新兴市场国家的财力则因商品价格下跌而被削弱，现在很难找到愿意出资支付全球公共物品的国家。


Budget cuts – together with accountability issues and new technological challenges – are also hurting those tasked with delivering good governance.	预算削减——加上问责的压力以及新技术的挑战——也正在损害及威胁那些旨在提供良好治理的倡议及项目。


And markets increasingly seem to be captured by vested interests.	甚至市场似乎也被既得利益者玩弄于股掌之间了。


Economic outcomes often have their origins in politics.	经济问题往往源自于政治。


Harvard Law School’s Roberto Unger has argued that overcoming the challenges of knowledge-based development will demand “inclusive vanguardism.”	哈佛法学院教授罗伯托·昂格尔（Roberto Unger）认为，克服知识型发展所面临的挑战要求秉承一种“包容性的先锋主义”。


The democratization of the market economy, he says, is possible only with “a corresponding deepening of democratic politics,” which implies “the institutional reconstruction of the market itself.”	他指出市场经济的民主化只有在“民主政治的相应深化发展”后才有可能实现，而这意味着“市场本身的制度重建”。


Yet, in the US, the political system seems unlikely to produce such a reconstruction.	然而美国的政治制度似乎不太可能产生这样的市场制度重建。


Harvard Business School Professors Katherine Gehl and Michael Porter argue that America’s two-party system “has become the major barrier to solving nearly every important challenge” facing the country.	哈佛商学院教授凯瑟琳·格尔（Katherine Gehl）和迈克尔·波特（Michael Porter）认为，美国的两党制“已成为解决国家重大挑战的主要障碍”。


Political leaders, Gehl and Porter continue, “compete on ideology and unrealistic promises, not on action and results,” and “divide voters and serve special interests” – all while facing little accountability.	格尔和波特继续指出，政治领导人“在意识形态和不切实际的承诺上相互较劲争斗，而不问行动和结果”，这就导致“分裂选民和服务于特殊利益”的负面后果——所有这一切不负责任的行为都极少面临问责。


A forthcoming book by University of San Francisco Professor Shalendra Sharma corroborates this view.	旧金山大学教授莎兰德拉·沙玛（Shalendra Sharma）即将出版的著作也证实了这一观点。


Comparing economic inequality in China, India, and the US, Sharma argues that both democratic and authoritarian governance have failed to promote equitable development.	通过对中国，印度和美国的经济不平等现象进行比较，沙玛认为民主和专制治理都无法推动公平包容发展。


There are four potential combinations of outcomes for countries: (1) good governance and good economic policies; (2) good politics and bad economics; (3) bad politics and good economics; and (4) bad politics and bad economics.	各国可能面临着四种潜在的结果组合：（1）治理和经济政策俱佳； （2）治理良好但经济恶劣；


Other things being equal, there is only a one-in-four chance of arriving at a win-win situation of good governance and strong economic performance.	以及（4）政治和经济都恶劣。 也就是说在其他条件相同的情况下可能只有1/4的机会能实现治理良好和经济表现强劲的双赢局面。


That chance is diminished further by other disruptions, from natural disasters to external interference.	而这种机会又会受到从自然灾害到外部干扰等一系列其他因素冲击而减弱。


There are those who believe that technology will help to overcome such disruptions, by spurring enough growth to generate the resources needed to mitigate their impact.	有些人认为技术将有助于克服这类负面干扰，通过刺激增长创造资源来缓解这类负面影响。


But while technology is consumer-friendly, it produces its own considerable costs.	但颠覆性科技进步纵使在易用性方面做得不错，但其自身也给社会稳定带来相当大的代价。


Technology kills jobs in the short term and demands re-skilling of the labor force.	科技会在短期内消灭就业并要求对劳动力进行再培训。


Moreover, knowledge-intensive technology has a winner-take-all network effect, whereby hubs seize access to knowledge and power, leaving less-privileged groups, classes, sectors, and regions struggling to compete.	此外知识密集型技术具有赢者通吃的网络效应，核心利益集团可以借此占据知识和权力，而那些弱势群体、阶层、部门和地区只能挣扎求存。


Thanks to social media, the resulting discontent now spreads faster than ever, leading to destructive politics.	在社交媒体的助推下，不满情绪如今比以往任何时候都传播得更快，导致破坏性的政治气氛。


This can invite geopolitical interference, which quickly deteriorates into a lose-lose scenario, like that already apparent in water-stressed and conflict-affected countries, where governments are fragile or failing.	这可能会引发地缘政治冲突并随之迅速恶化成双输的局面，正如那些政府管治脆弱或失败的缺水和地缘冲突国家所面临的现实。


The combination of bad politics and economics in one country can easily produce contagion, as rising migration spreads political stress and instability to other countries.	某一国的恶劣政治与经济环境并存状态很容易产生传染性，因为越来越多的移民会将政治压力和经济社会动荡扩大传播到其他国家。


According to the UN High Commission for Refugees, there were 65 million refugees last year, compared to just 1.6 million in 1960.	据联合国难民事务高级专员公署发布的数据，去年全球共有6500万难民，而1960年仅为160万人。


Given the endurance of geopolitical conflict, not to mention the rapidly growing impact of climate change, migration levels are not expected to decline anytime soon.	地缘政治冲突的持续压力，加上迅速增长的气候变化影响，跨境移民人口水平预计在短期内都不会有所下降。


The SDGs aim to relieve these pressures, by protecting the environment and improving the lives of people within their home countries.	联合国可持续发展目标旨在通过保护环境和改善各国人民的生活来减轻这些压力。


But achieving them will require far more responsible politics and a much stronger social consensus.	但实现这些目标需要更加负责的政治和更强大的社会共识。


And that will require a fundamental shift in mindset, from one of competition to one that emphasizes cooperation.	这就要求观念的根本转变——从关注竞争到强调合作。


Just as we have no global tax mechanism to ensure the provision of global public goods, we have no global monetary or welfare policies to maintain price stability and social peace.	正如我们没有全球税收机制来确保全球公共物品的供应，我们也缺乏全球货币或福利政策来维持价格及社会稳定与世界和平。


That is why multilateral institutions need to be upgraded and restructured, with effective decision-making and implementation mechanisms for managing global development challenges such as infrastructure gaps, migration, climate change, and financial instability.	这就是为什么需要对多边机构进行升级和重组，建立有效的决策和执行机制来应对各类全球发展挑战，比如基础设施差距，跨境移民，气候变化和金融不稳定。


Such a system would go a long way toward supporting progress toward the SDGs.	这样的制度建设才能够支持可持续发展目标的推进。


Unger argues that all of today’s democracies “are flawed, low-energy democracies,” in which “no trauma” – in the form of economic ruin or military conflict – means “no transformation.” He is right.	然而昂格尔认为，今天所有的民主国家都是“有缺陷的，低能量的民主”，除非遇到（以经济毁灭或军事冲突为形式的）“挫折”否则“无法实现转型”，确实如此。


In this environment, reflected in Trump’s embrace of the antiquated Westphalian model of nation-states, achieving the SDGs will probably be impossible.	在这个以特朗普拥抱陈旧过时的“威斯特伐利亚民族国家模式”的环境下，实现可持续发展政策或许就是不可能的。


The Who, Where, and When of Secession	脱离的谁、哪里和何时问题


CAMBRIDGE – This week, Kurds in northern Iraq voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence for the country’s Kurdistan Region.	坎布里奇—本周，伊拉克北部的库尔德人以压倒多数投票支持伊拉克库尔德地区独立。


With some 30 million Kurds divided among four states (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran), nationalists argue that they deserve the world’s recognition.	3,000万库尔德人散居在四个国家（伊拉克、土耳其、叙利亚、伊朗），民族主义者认为他们理应获得世界的承认。


In Spain, some 7.5 million Catalans have raised the same question.	在西班牙，大约750万加泰罗尼亚人也提出了同样的问题。


Does it matter that polls show Catalans, unlike Kurds, to be closely divided on the issue?	民调显示，和库尔德人不同，加泰罗尼亚人在这个问题上意见接近，这重要吗？


Does it matter that the states bordering Iraqi Kurdistan might use force to resist secession?	与伊拉克库尔德地区接壤的国家可能使用武力阻止他们独立，这重要吗？


National self-determination, the principle that US President Woodrow Wilson put on the international agenda in 1918, is generally defined as the right of a people to form its own state.	民族自决原则由美国总统威尔逊在1918年国际日程中提出，它被一般性地定义为一个民族组建自己的国家的权利。


But who is the “self” that makes this determination?	但谁构成了自决的“本体”？


Consider Somalia, whose people, unlike those of most other newly independent African states, had roughly the same linguistic and ethnic background.	以索马里为例，与大部分其他新近独立的非洲国家不同，索马里人民具有大体相同的语言和民族背景。


Neighboring Kenya was formed by colonial rule from dozens of peoples or tribes.	相邻的肯尼亚由殖民统治下的数十个民族或部落组成。


Somalia claimed that the self-determination principle should allow Somalis in northeastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia to secede.	索马里主张，根据自决原则，应该允许肯尼亚北部和埃塞俄比亚南部的索马里人脱离两国。


Kenya and Ethiopia refused, resulting in a number of regional wars over the Somali national question.	肯尼亚和埃塞俄比亚拒绝同意，这导致围绕索马里民族问题爆发了多场地区战争。


The ironic sequel was that Somalia itself later fragmented in a civil war among its clans and warlord leaders.	讽刺的是，后来索马里本身也陷入了一场内战，家族和军阀混战，国家分裂。


Today, its northern region, Somaliland, exists as a de facto independent state, though it lacks international recognition or United Nations membership.	如今，其北部地区索马里兰（Somaliland）是事实独立的国家，尽管没有获得国际承认，也没有联合国成员资格。


Voting does not always solve problems of self-determination.	投票并不总是能够解决自决问题。


First, there is the question of where one votes.	首先，在哪里投票是一个问题。


In Ireland, for example, Catholics objected for many years that if a vote were held within the political area of Northern Ireland, the two-thirds Protestant majority would rule.	比如，在爱尔兰，天主教徒多年来一直反对说，如果在北爱尔兰政治地区内举行的投票，那么占三分之二多数的新教徒肯定将赢得统治地位。


Protestants replied that if a vote were held within the geographical area of the entire island, the Catholic majority would rule.	新教徒回应说，如果投票在全岛地理地区举行，那么占多数的天主教徒将赢得统治地位。


Eventually, after decades of strife, outside mediation helped bring peace to Northern Ireland.	最终，在经过了几十年的对峙后，外部调停帮助北爱尔兰实现了和平。


There is also the question of when one votes?	另一个问题是何时投票？


In the 1960s, the Somalis wanted to vote immediately; Kenya wanted to wait 40 or 50 years while it reshaped tribal allegiances and forged a Kenyan identity.	20世纪60年代，索马里人想立即投票； 肯尼亚想再等40或50年，与此同时，它重塑了部落忠诚，打造了肯尼亚身份。


Another problem is how one weighs the interests of those left behind.	还有一个问题是你如何权衡落后者的利益。


Does secession harm them, by taking resources away or causing other disruption?	独立会因为夺走资源或导致其他破坏而伤害他们吗？


Iraqi Kurdistan holds significant oil reserves, and Catalonia is estimated to account for a fifth of Spain’s GDP.	伊拉克库尔德地区拥有巨大的石油储备，加泰罗尼亚贡献了西班牙GDP的大约五分之一。


Spain’s government argues that the upcoming independence vote in Catalonia is illegal under the Spanish constitution.	西班牙政府说，根据西班牙宪法，即将到来的加泰罗尼亚独立投票是非法投票。


History is not encouraging.	历史经验令人沮丧。


After the Habsburg Empire was dismantled in 1918, the Sudetenland was incorporated into Czechoslovakia, even though most people there spoke German.	1918年，哈布斯堡帝国崩溃后，苏台德地区并入了捷克斯洛伐克，但其大部分人说德语。


After the agreement reached in Munich with Adolf Hitler in 1938, the Sudeten Germans seceded from Czechoslovakia and joined Germany.	1938年，在与希特勒签订了慕尼黑协定后，苏台德日耳曼人脱离捷克斯洛伐克，加入德国。


But the loss of the mountainous frontier where they lived was a terrible setback for Czech defenses.	但失去他们所生活的山地边区对捷克的防御来说是一个巨大损失。


Was it right to allow self-determination for the Sudeten Germans, even if it meant stripping Czechoslovakia (which Germany dismembered six months later) of its military defenses?	即使捷克斯洛伐克将因此失去军事防御（六个月后被德国肢解），仍然要允许苏台德日耳曼人自决，这正确吗？


To take another African example, when the people of eastern Nigeria decided to secede and form the state of Biafra in the 1960s, other Nigerians resisted, in part because Biafra included most of Nigeria’s oil.	再举一个非洲的例子。 20世纪60年代，尼日利亚东部决定脱离比夫拉（Biafra），而其他尼日利亚人拒绝答应，部分原因就在于比夫拉拥有尼日利亚石油储量的绝大部分。


They argued that the oil belonged to all the people of Nigeria, not just the eastern area.	他们认为，石油属于全体尼日利亚人民，而不仅仅是东部地区。


After the Cold War ended, self-determination became an acute issue in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.	冷战结束后，自决成为东欧和前苏联的一个尖锐问题。


In the Caucasus, Azeris, Armenians, Georgians, Abkhazians, and Chechens all demanded states of their own.	在高加索地区，阿塞拜疆人、亚美尼亚人、格鲁吉亚人、阿布哈兹人和车臣人都要求建立自己的国家。


In Yugoslavia, Slovenes, Serbs, and Croats managed to carve out independent republics, but the Muslims in Bosnia-Herzegovina were less successful, and were subjected to a campaign of “ethnic cleansing” by both Croatian and Serb forces.	在南斯拉夫，斯洛文尼亚人、塞尔维亚人和克罗地亚人成功地建立了独立的共和国，但波黑穆斯林就没有那么成功，还遭到了克罗地亚和塞尔维亚力量的“种族清洗”运动。


In 1995, a NATO peacekeeping force was sent to the troubled area, but when NATO intervened militarily in Kosovo in 1999, Russia backed Serbia’s objections to secession, and Kosovo has still not been admitted to the UN.	1995年，一支北约维和部队被派往冲突地区，但在1999年北约军事干预科索沃时，俄罗斯支持塞尔维亚反对科索沃脱离，而科索沃至今仍未获得联合国成员资格。


In turn, Russia invoked self-determination to support Abkhazia’s secession from Georgia in 2008, and its invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014.	反过来，2008年俄罗斯又借口自决支持阿布哈兹脱离格鲁吉亚，并在2014年借口自决入侵并吞并克里米亚。


Self-determination turns out to be an ambiguous moral principle.	自决成了意义模糊的道德原则。


Wilson thought it would bring stability to Central Europe; instead, Hitler used the principle to undermine the region’s fragile new states in the 1930s.	威尔逊认为它能给中欧带来稳定； 相反，希特勒在20世纪30年代利用这个原则破坏该地区脆弱的新建国家。


The lesson remains valid today.	其中的教训至今仍然鲜明。


Given that less than 10% of the world’s states are homogeneous, treating self-determination as a primary rather than secondary moral principle could have disastrous consequences in many parts of the world.	放眼世界，只有不到10%的国家为同种国家，因此，将自决作为首要而非次等道德原则可能在世界许多地区制造灾难性后果。


Indeed, hostile ethnic groups are often mixed like a marble cake, rather than neatly separable like a layer cake.	事实上，敌对的民族之间的关系常常是如同大理石蛋糕般的交融，而不是层次分明的砌砖蛋糕。


That makes partition difficult, as India discovered in 1947.	这意味着分裂十分困难，1947年的印度说明了这一点。


Perhaps that is why only a few new states have been admitted to the UN in this century.	也许，正因如此，本世纪只有为数极少的国家获得了联合国的承认。


After it seceded from Sudan, ethnic turmoil inside South Sudan continued, practically unabated.	从苏丹脱离后，南苏丹的民族动荡仍然不断爆发，毫无平息迹象。


The best hope for the future is to ask what is being determined as well as who determines it.	对未来而言，最大的希望是问问决什么，以及由谁决。


In cases where groups cohabit a state uneasily, it may be possible to allow a degree of autonomy in the determination of internal affairs.	在不同群体局促地组成一个国家的情况下，在国内事务的决定中允许一定程度的自主是可能的。


Countries like Switzerland or Belgium provide considerable cultural, economic, and political autonomy to their constitutive groups.	瑞士和比利时等国家为组成国家的群体提供了可观的文化、经济和政治自主权。


Where autonomy is not enough, it may be possible to arrange an amicable divorce, as when Czechoslovakia peacefully divided into two sovereign countries.	如果自主权不够，也许还能心平气和地“离婚”，如捷克斯洛伐克和平分裂为两个国家。


But absolute demands for self-determination are more likely to become a source of violence, which is why they must be handled extremely carefully.	但绝对地要求自决更有可能成为暴力之源，因此，它们必须非常小心地对待。


Before invoking self-determination as a moral principle, one must heed the diplomatic version of the Hippocratic Oath: Primum non nocere (first, do no harm).	在间自决作为一项道德原则之前，必须遵循外交的希波克拉底誓言：Primum non nocere（首先，不要伤害）。


Does Europe Really Need Fiscal and Political Union?	欧洲真的需要财政和政治联盟吗？


CAMBRIDGE – Greece’s combative former finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, and his nemesis, former German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, were at loggerheads on Greek debt throughout Varoufakis’s term in office.	坎布里奇—富有战斗精神的希腊前财政部长雅尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯（Yanis Varoufakis）和他的敌人、德国前财政部长沃尔夫冈·朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schäuble）就瓦鲁法基斯任职期间的希腊债务问题斗得不可开交。


But they were in full agreement when it came to the central question of the eurozone’s future.	但对于欧元区未来的核心问题，他们的意见完全一致。


Monetary union required political union.	货币联盟需要政治联盟。


No middle way was possible.	没有中间道路可走。


This is one of the interesting revelations in Varoufakis’s fascinating account of his tenure as finance minister.	这是瓦鲁法基斯对其财政部长生涯的精彩论述中的一个有趣的结论。


“You are probably the one [in the Eurogroup] who understands that the eurozone is unsustainable,” Varoufakis quotes Schäuble as telling him. “The eurozone is constructed wrongly.	“你也许是[欧元集团中]认识到欧元区不可持续的人之一，”瓦鲁法基斯说朔伊布勒这样对他说，“欧元区的结构有问题。


We should have a political union, there is no doubt about it.”	我们应该有一个政治联盟，这一点毫无疑问。 ”


Of course, Schäuble and Varoufakis had different ideas regarding the ends that political union would serve.	当然，对于政治联盟的目的，朔伊布勒和瓦鲁法基斯是有分歧的。


Schäuble saw political union as a means to impose strong fiscal discipline on member states from the center, tying their hands and preventing “irresponsible” economic policies.	朔伊布勒将政治联盟看成从中央向成员国施加财政纪律、约束它们并防止“不负责任的”经济政策的手段。


Varoufakis thought political union would relax creditors’ stranglehold on his economy and create room for progressive politics across Europe.	瓦鲁法基斯认为政治联盟能放松债权人对希腊经济的压力，并为整个欧洲的进步政治创造空间。


Nevertheless, it is remarkable that these two officials from opposite ends of the political spectrum arrived at an identical diagnosis about the euro.	尽管如此，两位位于政治谱系的两个极端的官员对欧元做出的同样的诊断，这一点相当引人注目。


The convergence is indicative of the growing sense of the need for fiscal and eventual political union if the euro is to be maintained without damage to economic performance or democratic values. French President Emmanuel Macron has advanced similar ideas.	他们的意见的趋同表明越来越多的人认识到，要想维持欧元又不影响到经济表现或民主价值观，财政和最终的政治联盟是不可或缺的。


And the leader of Germany’s Social Democrats, Martin Schulz, has also thrown his weight behind a “United States of Europe” in recent days.	而德国社会民主党党首马丁·舒尔茨（Martin Schulz）也在最近加入了支持“欧罗巴合众国”的行列。


But there is also an alternative, much less ambitious view, according to which neither fiscal nor political union is needed.	但还有另一条路，这条路的目标没有那么宏大，财政和政治联盟都不是必要的。


What needs to be done instead is to de-link private finance from public finance, insulating each from the malfeasance of the other.	相反，必要的是将私人金融和公共金融脱钩，使一者的失当不会影响到另一者。


With this separation, private finance can be fully integrated at the European level, while public finance is left to individual member states.	在这样的隔离下，私人金融可以在欧洲层面实现充分一体化，而公共金融由各成员国自行决定。


This way, countries can reap the full benefit of financial integration while national political authorities are left free to manage their own economies.	如此，各国能够充分获取金融一体化的好处，同时国家政治当局也能继续主导本国经济。


Brussels would no longer be the bogeyman, insisting on fiscal austerity and drawing the ire of countries with high unemployment and low growth.	布鲁塞尔不再充当恶人，要求财政紧缩、引起高失业低增长国家的愤怒。


Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times has been a strong proponent of the view that a workable monetary and financial union does not require fiscal integration.	《金融时报》的马丁·桑德卜（Martin Sandbu）强烈支持这一观点：可行的货币和金融联盟并不要求财政一体化。


He believes the critical reform is to prevent bank bailouts by public authorities.	他相信，关键性的改革是防止公共当局救助银行。


The price of bank failures should be paid by the banks’ owners and creditors; we should have bail-ins rather than bailouts.	银行倒闭的代价应该由银行所有者和债权人承担； 银行应该由他们自救（bail-in），而不应该得到援助（bailout）。


Sandbu argues that this would not only insulate public finance from the follies of banks; it would also lead to an equilibrium that mimics fiscal risk-sharing between countries that are net borrowers and countries that are net lenders.	桑德卜指出，这不但能将公共金融和银行的不当行为隔离； 还能形成一个均衡，净债务国和净债权国之间达到类似于财政风险共担的格局。


When banks in the former fail, it is creditors in the latter that would bear the cost.	当净债务国的银行倒闭时，由净债权国的债权人承担成本。


“With banking union, there is no need for fiscal union,” he argues.	“有了银行联盟，就不需要财政联盟了，”他说。


In a forthcoming book, the University of California, Berkeley, economist Barry Eichengreen also makes the case for re-nationalizing fiscal policy, which he views as essential to stemming the tide of European populism.	在即将出版的新著中，加州大学伯克利分校经济学家巴里·艾肯格林（Barry Eichengreen）也支持财政政策再国家化，他将此视为阻止欧洲民粹主义潮流的必要条件。


Eichengreen thinks returning fiscal policy to national authorities would require preventing banks from holding too much government debt, in order to minimize the risk that national fiscal mismanagement topples the banking system.	艾肯格林认为，将财政政策交还国家当局要求杜绝银行持有过多政府债务，从而使国家财政管理失当拖累银行系统的风险最小化。


Governments that go bust would have to restructure their debts rather than get bailouts from other EU states.	破产的政府需要重组债务，而不是获得其他欧盟国家的援助。


Advocates of cutting the Gordian knot between private and public finance recognize that governments’ approach to banks must change radically if this separation is to work.	斩断私人和公共金融联系的支持者们承认，要使隔离起作用，政府的银行方针必须有一个大转变。


But it is not clear that their proposed remedies would work.	但他们所提出的方案是否有效还不清楚。


As long as economic policy remains the province of national governments, sovereign risk will likely continue to distort the operation of cross-border finance.	只要经济政策由国家政府决定，主权风险就会继续扭曲跨境金融的操作。


Sovereign states can always change the rules ex post, which means full financial integration is impossible.	主权国家永远是事后才改变规则，这意味着完全的金融一体化不可能实现。


And the costs of local financial shocks cannot be diversified away as easily.	而局部金融冲击的成本也不可能非常轻松地分散。


Consider what happens when a large bank goes bankrupt in the US – an economic union where the Sandbu and Eichengreen rules already apply.	设想美国有一家大银行发生破产。 美国可以视为一个实现了桑德卜和艾肯格林规则的经济联盟。


The regional economic spillovers are limited by the fact that other borrowers can continue to function normally: creditworthiness is determined by a borrower’s fundamentals and not its state of residence.	地区经济溢出效应因为借款人能够继续保持正常运行这一事实而得到遏制：信誉由借款人的基本面决定，而不是由其在哪个州决定。


No one expects a state government to interfere in inter-state payments, rewrite bankruptcy rules, or issue its own currency in case of extreme distress.	没人会认为州政府会干预跨州偿付、修订破产规则或在极端情况下发行自己的货币。


State governments in the US exercise little sovereignty in large part because they have less need of it: their residents receive transfers from the center and send their representatives to Washington, DC, to help make federal policy.	美国的州政府之所以几乎不行使主权，很大一部分原因是没有什么必要这样做：它们的居民从中央获得转移支付，并选举代表去华盛顿帮助制定联邦政策。


But EU member states are in a very different position vis-à-vis the EU institutions in Brussels.	但欧盟成员国在布鲁塞尔的欧洲机构面前的地位非常不同。


Because they retain sovereignty, they cannot make similarly credible commitments not to interfere with financial markets.	由于它们保留着主权，因此无法做出不干预金融市场的同样可信的承诺。


So the risk remains that a severe enough financial shock in the EU will affect all other borrowers in the same country in a self-fulfilling manner.	于是，如果欧盟发生足够严重的金融冲击，仍有可能以自我实现的方式影响到同一国家内的所有其他借款人。


Pretending that we can separate private from public finance may exacerbate, rather than moderate, financial boom-and-bust cycles.	装作我们能够将私人和公共金融相隔离可能加剧而不是减弱金融枯荣周期。


In contemporary societies, finance must serve a public purpose beyond the logic of financial market profitability.	在当代社会，金融必须承担超越金融市场盈利逻辑的公共责任。


So it is irrevocably politicized – for good as well as bad reasons.	因此，它必须带有政治性质——不管原因是好是坏。


It appears that conservative and progressive policymakers alike are resigning themselves to this reality.	看起来，不管是保守派还是进步派决策者，都不愿面对这个现实。


This Year’s Cruelest Month?	今年最残酷的一个月？


TARN, FRANCE – To the great poet T.S. Eliot, “April is the cruellest month.”	塔恩，法国——对伟大诗人艾略特来说，“4月是最残酷的一个月。


But in 2017, the world’s politicians could be forgiven for thinking that September is more deserving of the title.	”但在2017年，全世界政治家如果认为9月更加实至名归是可以原谅的。


Consider French President Emmanuel Macron, a relative unknown who was elected in May with the support of many who were voting against his second-round opponent, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front.	以法国总统伊曼纽尔·马克龙为例，这个名气不那么大的年轻人今年5月在许多反对其第二轮对手极右翼国民阵线马琳·勒庞的选民支持下当选法国总统。


Now, Macron is facing strong opposition from both the far left and the far right over his plan to rejuvenate the French economy.	现在，马克龙重新振兴法国经济的计划正面临极左和极右翼两大阵营的强烈反抗。


In addition to budget cuts and a public-sector pay freeze – neither of which would be popular under any circumstances – Macron is trying to reform France’s labor code.	除削减预算和冻结公共部门费用外——上述两项举措无论如何都不会受到欢迎——马克龙还试图改革法国的劳动法。


This was sure to kick up a political storm, and French trade unions have already responded by threatening a general strike for the second week in September.	这肯定会引发一场政治风暴，法国工会已经威胁要在9月的第二周召集大规模罢工运动。


Moreover, Macron has hardly helped himself with some of his decisions since taking office.	此外，马克龙当选后所做的某些决定并未对他聚敛人气有所帮助。


For example, one can only wonder why he chose to invite US President Donald Trump to attend France’s Bastille Day celebrations in July.	例如，我们只想知道他为什么选择邀请美国总统唐纳德·特朗普参加7月举行的法国国庆日庆祝活动。


Such a monarchical display from “le président soleil” was surely a mistake.	这位“太阳椅”总统如此专制的表现无疑犯下了错误。


Nonetheless, Macron has shown himself to be brave, articulate, and determined to do the right thing.	尽管如此，马克龙已经充分展现了自己的勇敢、口若悬河和决心做正确的事。


It remains incumbent upon all liberal, pro-European centrists to wish him well.	所有自由、亲欧洲的中间派人士仍然应当祝他好运。


In the United Kingdom, September could be the month when Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit-bound government and the British public are mugged by reality.	在英国，9月可能是特雷莎·梅首相以退欧为目标的政府和英国公众被现实所击败的月份。


Michael Gove, May’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, used to argue that the UK would be in the driver’s seat once its exit negotiations with the European Union began.	梅的环境、粮食和农村事务大臣迈克尔·戈夫曾经认为一旦与欧盟的退欧谈判开始，英国将会处于主导位置。


But that is hardly where one wants to be if one’s vehicle is headed off a cliff.	但如果汽车马上要坠入悬崖，坐在司机的位置恐怕也不是什么好事。


As we have seen time and again, Britain’s approach to the Brexit negotiations seems to be nothing more than a mix of wishful thinking, back-peddling, and plaintive requests that the EU bend over backward to help British leaders get out of the mess they have made.	就像我们所反复看到的那样，英国的退欧谈判策略似乎不过是妄想、退缩和恳请欧盟开倒车以帮助英国领导人摆脱其所制造的混乱局面的可悲要求。


While this spectacle has been playing out, UK living standards have been falling.	随着局势的不断发展，英国的生活水平一直处在下降的过程中。


Many Britons recently returned from vacationing in the European sun to discover that their pound buys them much less than it used to: the euro in their pocket is now worth £0.92 ($1.19), up from £0.70 before the Brexit vote.	许多英国人最近从欧洲阳光下度假回来后却发现他们的英镑能买的东西比以前少得多：他们口袋里的欧元现在价值0. 92英镑（合1.


And, according to some traders, the pound will continue its decline this fall, and could reach parity with the euro before long.	7英镑上升了不少。 而且，有些交易员认为今年秋天英镑仍将继续下降，并且不久以后就有可能达到与欧元平价。


Worst of all, even as Britain incurs the costs of leaving its largest market, the political gains for doing so remain as illusory as ever.	最糟糕的是，即便英国承担了离开其最大市场的损失，但这样做得到的政治利益仍然是非常虚幻的。


In the United States, Trump, too, is unlikely to have a good month.	在美国，特朗普这个月也不太可能好过。


His relations with fellow Republicans in Congress are in free fall, as are his chances of passing any serious legislation.	他与国会共和党同僚的关系开始自由落体，他通过任何严肃法案的机会也是一样。


The failure to repeal or reform the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) has made passing tax cuts only harder; and if lawmakers and the Trump administration do not agree on a spending deal next month, the US federal government will shut down.	废除或改革平价医疗法案（奥巴马医改法案）的失败已经增加了通过减税法案的难度； 如果立法委员和特朗普内阁下个月未能就支出达成协议，那么美国联邦政府将会关门停业。


Complicating matters further, Trump has continued to direct abusive early morning tweets at members of Congress, the media, and others, while losing or firing top advisers.	导致局势更加复杂的是，特朗普继续在每天一早向国会议员、媒体和其他势力直接发送侮辱性质的推特，同时失去或解雇高层顾问。


If his administration has any organizing principle, it seems to be that of the revolving door: in one moment, out the next.	如果他的政府有任何组织原则，那么似乎就像是一会儿进一会儿出的旋转门一样。


Trump’s new chief of staff, retired General John Kelly, could still impose discipline within the White House; but it is all but impossible that he will be able to rein in the president himself.	特朗普的新任办公室主任退休将军约翰·凯利仍有可能在白宫内部执行纪律； 但指望他控制总统却几乎不可能。


Moreover, just as Trump will continue to issue extremist and ignorant public statements, the investigation into his campaign’s alleged ties to Russia will not end anytime soon.	此外，就在特朗普继续发表极端主义和无知公开声明的同时，对他与俄罗斯所谓关系的调查将不会很快结束。


With each passing week, former FBI Director Robert Mueller and his team of career prosecutors are presumably getting ever closer to unearthing the truth, whatever it may be.	随着每个星期的过去，前联邦调查局长罗伯特·米勒及其职业检察官团队都很可能更接近于挖出真相。


September could also be the month when we witness an explosive showdown between the Trump administration and China.	9月还可能是我们亲眼目睹特朗普政府和中国爆发式摊牌的月份。


Trump’s protectionist instincts and hostility to globalization do not bode well for the world as a whole.	特朗普的保护主义本能和对全球化的敌视对世界各国而言都不是好兆头。


But his argument that China plays by different economic rules than everyone else is not far from the truth.	但他提出中国与别国实行不同的经济规则却比较接近于真相。


During his country’s accession negotiations with the World Trade Organization in December 2001, a former Chinese commerce minister (who is now in prison for corruption) used to tell me and other negotiators that, “If you respect us by an inch, we’ll respect you by a mile.”	在2001年12月中国加入世贸组织的谈判中，一位前中国商务部长（现在正因为腐败而被监禁）曾经告诉我和其他谈判代表，“如果你敬我们一尺，我们会敬你一丈。


But judging by reports from the US and European business leaders, the opposite seems to be true: we have given China a mile, and gotten an inch in return.	”但从美国和欧洲商界领袖的报告判断，情况似乎恰恰相反：我们敬中国一丈，中国敬我们一尺作为回报。


China, simply put, does not play by the rules to which it agreed.	简言之，中国不遵守协议规定的游戏规则。


For starters, it protects its own markets from competition, which is abundantly clear in the case of its Internet companies.	首先，它保护自己国内的市场免于竞争，这在互联网企业的案例中表现得再清楚不过。


And when it does grant foreign companies access to its domestic market, it often requires them to enter into partnerships with Chinese companies, or to hand over intellectual property.	而且当它确实批准外国企业进入国内市场时，往往要求他们与中国企业建立合资关系，或者交出知识产权。


If this continues, China’s partners will eventually lose patience.	如果这种情况继续下去，中国的合作伙伴最终一定会失去耐心的。


While Trump’s disavowal of international trade rules and norms has received ample attention, China’s own abuse of those norms has gone unnoticed.	尽管特朗普否定国际游戏规则和规范引起了人们的广泛关注，但中国自己滥用这些规范却没有被注意到。


If China does not improve its behavior, all of us – including the Chinese – will suffer.	如果中国不改变自己的行为，我们所有人——包括中国人在内——都会因此而受苦。


China’s economic success need not threaten the rest of the world; but it needs to be achieved on a fair basis.	中国的经济成功不必威胁世界其他国家； 但需要有公平的基础。


Chinese President Xi Jinping and his politburo should signal that they are committed to this goal before they gather for the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party this fall.	中国主席习近平及其政治局应当向外界表明他们将在今年秋天举行的中国共产党第19次全国代表大会上致力于实现这个目标。


If they do, September will be slightly less cruel than it otherwise is shaping up to be.	如果他们做到这一点，9月也许不会像原来可能的那般残酷。


The Changing Geopolitics of Energy	变化中的能源地缘政治


TOKYO – In 2008, when the United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its volume Global Trends 2025, a key prediction was tighter energy competition.	东京——2008年，美国国家情报委员会（NIC）发布2025年全球趋势，其中一个关键的预测是能源竞争将更加激烈。


Chinese demand was growing, and non-OPEC sources like the North Sea were being depleted.	中国需求正不断增长，像北海这样的非欧佩克国家资源正在逐渐耗竭当中。


After two decades of low and relatively stable prices, oil prices had soared to more than $100 per barrel in 2006.	在经历20年相对稳定的低油价后，油价已经在2006年飙升到每桶一百美元以上。


Many experts spoke of “peak oil” – the idea that reserves had “topped off” – and anticipated that production would become concentrated in the low-cost but unstable Middle East, where even Saudi Arabia was thought to be fully explored, with no more giant fields likely to be found.	许多专家热衷于讨论“石油峰值”——认为人类已经“耗尽”石油储量——并且预测生产将向低成本但局势动荡的中东集中，而在中东地区就连沙特也已经经过了充分的开发，不太可能再发现大型油田了。


The US was regarded as increasingly dependent on energy imports, and this, together with rising prices, was seen as a major limit on American geopolitical influence.	美国当时被视为越来越依赖能源进口，人们认为依赖能源进口再加上能源价格上涨会在很大程度上限制美国的地缘政治影响。


Power had shifted to the producers.	主动权已经转移到产油国手上。


The NIC analysts did not neglect the possibility of a technological surprise, but they focused on the wrong technology.	国家情报委员会分析人员并没有忽视技术意外，但他们却关注了错误的对象。


Emphasizing the potential of renewables such as solar, wind, and hydro, they missed the main act.	因为过于关注太阳能、风能和水力等潜在的可再生资源，他们并没有能够把握住主要的方向。


The real technological breakthrough was the shale-energy revolution.	真正的技术突破来源于页岩能源革命。


While horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are not new, their pioneering application to shale rock was.	尽管水平钻孔和水力压裂算不上新技术，但它们应用于页岩的钻探却是一种开创。


By 2015, more than half of all the natural gas produced in the US came from shale.	到2015年，页岩气已经占美国出产天然气的一半以上。


The shale boom has propelled the US from being an energy importer to an energy exporter.	页岩技术繁荣推动美国从能源进口国转型为能源出口国。


The US Energy Department estimates that the country has 25 trillion cubic meters of technically recoverable shale gas, which, when combined with other oil and gas resources, could last for two centuries.	美国能源部估计国内技术上可以开采的页岩气储量高达25万亿立方米，如果再加上其他石油天然气资源，足够使用两个世纪以上。


The International Energy Agency now expects North America to be self-sufficient in energy in the 2020s.	国际能源署现在预计北美将于21世纪20年代实现能源自给自足的目标。


Facilities built to receive liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have been converted to process exports.	曾经用于进口液化天然气（LNG）的接收设施现在已经转而用于出口市场。


World markets have also been transformed.	世界市场也已经发生了重大变化。


Previously, gas markets were geographically restricted by dependence on pipelines.	此前，在地理上对管道的依赖曾经限制了天然气市场。


That gave market power to Russia, which used it to exercise political and economic leverage over its European neighbors.	俄罗斯因此掌握了市场权力，并利用这种权力对欧洲邻国施加政治和经济影响。


LNG has now added a degree of flexibility to gas markets and reduced Russian leverage.	液化天然气已经为天然气市场注入了某种程度的灵活性，并因此削弱了俄国的影响。


In 2005, only 15 countries imported LNG; today, that number has tripled.	在2005年，仅有15个国家进口液化天然气； 而今天，这一数据增加了三倍以上。


Moreover, the smaller scale of shale wells makes them much more responsive to fluctuations in market prices.	此外，页岩井的规模较小导致其更容易响应市场价格波动。


It is difficult to turn on and off the billion-dollar multiyear investments in traditional oil and gas fields; but shale wells are smaller, cheaper, and easier to start and stop as prices change.	随意开关多年积累的对传统油气田10亿美元级别的投资难度非常大； 但页岩井规模较小、投资较低、更容易随着价格的变化关闭和启动。


This means that the US has become the so-called swing producer capable of balancing supply and demand in global hydrocarbon markets.	这意味着美国已经成为所谓的产量调节者，有能力平衡全球碳氢化合物的市场供求状况。


As Harvard’s Meghan O’Sullivan points out in her smart new book Windfall, the shale revolution has a number of implications for US foreign policy.	哈佛大学梅根·沙利文在其新著意外之财中指出，页岩革命会对美国外交政策产生一定的影响。


She argues that the new energy abundance increases US power.	她认为这种新能源的富集增强了美国的影响力。


Shale-energy production boosts the economy and creates more jobs.	页岩能源生产推动了经济发展并创造出更多就业机会。


Reducing imports helps the balance of payments.	减少进口有助于平衡国际收支。


New tax revenues ease government budgets.	新的税收来源能减轻对政府预算的压力。


Cheaper power strengthens international competitiveness, particularly for energy-intensive industries like petrochemicals, aluminum, steel, and others.	更廉价的能源加强了美国的国际竞争力，特别是在石油化工、铝、钢和其他能源密集型领域。


There are also domestic political effects.	页岩能源的富集同样产生了国内政治影响。


One is psychological.	其中一部分体现在心理层面。


For some time, many people in the US and abroad have bought into the myth of American decline. Increasing dependence on energy imports was often cited as evidence.	一段时间以来，美国和国外许多人已经相信了美国衰落的神话，越来越依赖能源进口往往被视为美国衰落的证据。


The shale revolution has changed that, demonstrating the combination of entrepreneurship, property rights, and capital markets that constitute the country’s underlying strength.	页岩革命改变了这种局面，彰显了构成美国基础实力的企业家精神、产权和资本市场的完美结合。


In that sense, the shale revolution has also enhanced American soft power.	从这个意义上讲，美国的软实力也通过页岩革命得到了增强。


Skeptics have argued that lower dependence on energy imports will cause the US to disengage from the Middle East.	怀疑论者还认为对能源进口依赖程度降低将导致美国加速脱离中东。


But this misreads the economics of energy.	但这是对能源经济学的一种误读。


A major disruption such as a war or terrorist attack that stopped the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz would drive prices to very high levels in America and among our allies in Europe and Japan.	像战争或恐怖袭击这样的重大破坏会阻止石油和天然气通过霍尔木兹海峡并严重推高美国及其欧日盟国的油价。


Besides, the US has many interests other than oil in the region, including nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, protection of Israel, human rights, and counterterrorism.	不仅如此，美国在中东地区拥有除石油以外的诸多其他利益，包括核不扩散、保护以色列、人权及反恐。


The US may be cautious about overextending itself in the Middle East, but that reflects its experience with the costly invasion of Iraq and the general turmoil of the Arab Spring revolutions, rather than illusions that shale produces political “energy independence.”	美国或许会对在中东过度扩张持谨慎态度，但这是美国大费周章入侵伊拉克和历经阿拉伯之春革命后所做出的调整，而非来源于页岩能源生产带来政治“能源独立”的幻想。


America’s ability to use oil sanctions to force Iran to negotiate an end to its nuclear-weapons program depended not only on Saudi willingness to make up Iran’s exports of a million barrels per day, but also on the general expectations that the shale revolution created.	美国能否利用石油制裁迫使伊朗谈判结束其核武器计划不仅取决于沙特是否愿意弥补伊朗每天一百万桶的石油出口能力，而且取决于页岩革命所带来的普遍期望。


Other benefits of shale energy for US foreign policy include the diminishing ability of countries like Venezuela to use oil to purchase votes at the United Nations and in regional organizations of small Caribbean states, and Russia’s reduced ability to coerce its neighbors by threatening to cut off gas supplies.	页岩能源为美国外交政策所带来的其他好处包括削弱委内瑞拉等国家利用石油购买联合国和小型加勒比国家地区组织等其他机构的选票，还削弱了俄罗斯以威胁切断天然气供应迫使邻国就范的能力。


In short, there has been a tectonic shift in the geopolitics of energy.	总之，能源地缘政治结构性的转变已经发生。


Although no one can know the future of energy prices, modest world prices may last for some time.	尽管没人能够预测能源价格的未来，但在未来一段时间世界能源价格可能保持适中。


Both technology and politics could of course upend this prediction.	当然技术和政治都可以推翻这一预测。


Technological advances could increase supply and reduce prices; politics is more likely to disrupt supply and cause prices to rise.	技术进步可以增加供应并降低价格； 政治更有可能破坏供应并导致价格上涨。


But the disruptions are unlikely to be sharp or long-lasting in the wake of the shale revolution, which is what makes it a geopolitical revolution as well.	但对能源生产的破坏在页岩革命发生后不太可能造成剧烈或长期的影响，因此页岩革命也是一场地缘政治革命。


Socrates in Silicon Valley	硅谷的苏格拉底


LONDON – If Socrates’s gadfly was in Silicon Valley, it would have a lot of lazy horses to sting.	伦敦—如果苏格拉底的牛虻来到硅谷，有的是懒马叮咬。


The citizens of the techno-polis appear oblivious to how the outside world’s perception of them has changed, and radically so.	这座高科技城邦的公民不在意外部世界对他们的看法如何改变，完全不在意。


Once universally revered as a hotbed of innovation, the world’s premier technology hub is increasingly viewed with suspicion and resentment.	这里曾经是举世公认的创新发源地，而如今，这座全球首屈一指的科技枢纽正在日益受到质疑和怨恨。


Yes, Silicon Valley is still admired as a source of invention and creative destruction; but it is also widely viewed as having lost its ethical compass.	是的，硅谷仍然作为发明和创新性破坏的源泉而受人景仰； 但也被广泛认为失去了道德指南针。


With proliferating reports of lax attitudes toward data privacy, wanton disregard for the dignity of the less fortunate, and a growing sense that technology companies are pushing their preferred policy agenda on the rest of the world, discontent and disillusion are rising.	无数报告指出这里不关注数据隐私，肆意践踏不幸者的尊严，越来越多的人感到科技公司将它们所偏好的政策日程强推给全世界。 不满和醒悟正在日益增加。


Viewed from outside, the world sees companies that exude a sense of entitlement – for example, by flouting local regulations as they expand into cities around the world, from Berlin to Rio de Janeiro.	从外部看，这里的公司散发着一种特权的味道——比如在扩张进入全世界各大城市——不管是柏林还是里约热内卢——时藐视当地监管。


Supremely confident in the power of their knowledge and skills, they are convinced that they will guide the world onto the Path of Truth.	它们对知识和技能的力量极度自信，认为它们将引导世界走上真理之路。


This overweening certitude is not new – the United States, after all, was founded on missionary zeal – but the ethical arrogance is.	这一自负的确定并不新鲜——毕竟，美国就是在传教士般的热情下建立起来的——但它们的道德自大是新鲜事。


Of course, not all technology companies should be tarred with the same brush as the main offenders.	当然，并非所有科技公司都是一丘之貉。


But the recent spate of high-profile cases harms the reputation of the sector as a whole.	但当下大案频发伤害了整个部门。


As the world looks to Silicon Valley and sees an echo chamber of self-righteous conceit, mature and law-abiding technology companies are assumed to be inside it, too.	世界看向硅谷，看到的是自以为是的骄傲的回音室（echo chamber）； 而成熟的守法科技公司也应该在其中。


The cases are becoming legion.	例子层出不穷。


Uber, the data-abusing car-sharing app that spikes prices during peak demand and threatens journalists who write negatively about it, has been banned in Spain, the Netherlands, Thailand, and two Indian cities so far, including New Delhi (after a driver allegedly raped a passenger).	滥用数据的打车应用Uber会在需求高峰期提高价格，并威胁对此撰写负面报道的记者。 目前Uber已被西班牙、荷兰、泰国和包括新德里（因为一位司机被控强奸乘客）在内的两个印度城市禁用。


These reports follow the revelation that pictures shared on Snapchat may not be deleted, as promised.	在此之前，有报道披露Snapchat（意味“阅后即焚”）上共享的图片可能无法如承诺的那样删除。


In August, Brazilian authorities banned the social-networking app Secret after the company failed to respond to cyberbullying concerns, with Israel considering a similar move.	8月，巴西当局禁止了社交网络应用Secret，因为该公司就网络暴力担忧做出回应。 以色列也在考虑类似的措施。


The list goes on.	类似的例子还可以举出很多。


Silicon Valley is risking a backlash that will not do anyone any good.	硅谷有可能遭到谁也无法讨好的抵制。


Its leaders are increasingly out of step with the public’s expectation of ethical and conscientious behavior.	硅谷领导人与公众对道德和良心行为的预期渐行渐远。


If they fail to generate new ideas and devise novel approaches, their problems will only multiply further.	如果他们不能产生新想法、新方法，他们的问题将越来越严重。


One thing that would help is fresh blood.	一个能其助益作用的东西是新鲜血液。


Much of Silicon Valley’s success stems from its tight networks – people who have been successful and support one another.	硅谷的成功很大程度上要归功于其紧密的网络——成功人士以及他们彼此之间的支持。


But history shows that the same structures can also choke off innovation.	但历史表明同样的结构也有可能扼杀创新。


Organizations, like species, become inbred and weak, and eventually perish, when they fail to embrace diversity.	组织就像是物种，如果不能实现多样化，会出现近亲繁殖和退化，最终消亡。


Indeed, one of the most revealing facts to come to light about Silicon Valley in recent months is the extreme ethnic and gender imbalance at large technology companies, including Apple, Google, Facebook, and Twitter.	事实上，最近几个月来关于硅谷的最有说明性的事实是包括苹果、谷歌、Facebook和Twitter在内的大型科技公司的极端道德和性别失衡。


No one is shocked, but clearly something needs to change.	没人因此震惊，但显然需要做出改变。


Somehow a place that prides itself on innovation and doing things differently should be doing this differently as well.	一个以创新和不走寻常路而自豪的地方，在这方面也应该不走寻常路。


Above all, there is value in questioning and challenging the status quo.	最重要的是，质疑和挑战现状是有价值的。


Independence in thought and deed is vital for any company to function and to build things that last and contribute to economic growth and prosperity.	独立思想和行为对任何运营和构建保持和增进经济增长与繁荣的公司来说都是至关重要的。


In Plato’s Apology, Socrates advocates for the examined life – the habit of rigorous self-reflection and posing hard, heterodox, and possibly upsetting questions.	在柏拉图的《申辩篇》（Apology）中，苏格拉底号召检讨生活——严格自省，提出困难、异端乃至令人难以接受的问题。


The tech sector needs to embrace that credo.	科技部门也需要采取这一教条。


Ironically, questioning prevailing wisdom – and thereby inventing radically new solutions – has been Silicon Valley’s modus operandi from the outset.	讽刺的是，提问胜于智慧——从而发明全新的解决方案——自创立之日起就一直是硅谷的特色。


But it has followed this approach on a macro level and for problems elsewhere in the economy, without examining itself.	但它只是在宏观层面、对经济的其余部分践行这一方针，而不以此自省。


Silicon Valley’s citizens must start applying their skill at innovation – and their pride in “breaking things” – to themselves.	硅谷公民必须开始将他们的创新技能——以及他们对“破坏东西”的骄傲——用在自己身上。


The only way to evolve is by adapting to new environmental pressures, and now Silicon Valley – owing in large part to its own behavior – is facing plenty of them.	唯一的进化之道是适应新的环境压力，而如今，硅谷——很大程度上拜其自身行为所赐——正面临着大量环境压力。


Unless it changes, it will be overtaken.	除非做出改变，否则硅谷将会被取代。


The good news is that if any place has proved that it can innovate, it is Silicon Valley.	好消息是，如果说有哪个地方证明了自己能创新，那就是硅谷。


Now, however, its citizens must recognize that they do not have all the answers; unfortunately, so far at least, there seems to be no awareness among them that there is even a problem.	但是，如今，硅谷公民必须认识到，他们并不拥有一切的答案； 不幸的是，至少在目前，他们甚至似乎还没有认识到又问题存在。


Like the “skilled craftsmen” described by Socrates, “on the strength of their technical proficiency, they claimed a perfect understanding of every other subject, however important.”	和苏格拉底所描述的“熟练工匠”一样，“仰仗他们的科技熟练程度，他们宣称对其他一切东西都拥有完美的理解，不管是多么重要的东西。 ”


As Plato’s teacher knew – and as every fresh report of the tech sector’s abusive behavior should remind us – a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.	柏拉图的老师知道——每一篇关于科技行业恣睢行为的新鲜报道也无不在提醒我们这一点——一知半解也可能是危险的东西。


The Harsh Truth About India’s Godmen	关于印度尊者的残酷真相


NEW DELHI – Late last month, when two Indian states and the national capital were held to ransom by rioting mobs protesting their spiritual leader’s conviction on two counts of raping minor girls, many Indians found themselves confronting several painful truths about their country.	新德里—上个月月底，印度两个邦以及首都遭到了暴徒的勒索，抗议他们的精神领袖在两起强奸女信徒的庭审中被定罪。 结果，许多印度人看到了祖国的一些令人痛苦的真相。


The leader who spurred these protests is Gurmeet Singh, one of the more prominent of several “godmen,” or self-proclaimed spiritual leaders, who flourish across India.	引发这些示威活动的是辛格（Gurmeet Singh），他是在印度风行一时的众多“尊者”（godman，即自封的精神领袖）中比较出众的一位。


The flamboyant, jewelry-bedecked Singh calls himself Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh Insan – a compound of Hindu, Muslim, and Sikh names, followed by the word for “Human” in Hindi, Punjabi, and Urdu.	辛格喜欢把自己打扮得珠光宝气，他自称巴巴·戈尔米特·拉姆·拉辛·辛格·因桑（Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh Insan），这个名字混合了印度教、穆斯林和锡克教风格，其中最后一个词是印地语、旁遮普语和乌尔都语的“人”。


And he has a reputation for sexually exploiting his female followers.	他以喜欢“临幸”女信徒著称。


In 2002, two of those followers mustered the courage to press charges.	2002年，其中两位信徒鼓起勇气提起了指控。


In the 15 years and 200 sittings of the court it took to get to a conviction, Singh’s devotees made numerous efforts to pressure investigators, police, judges, and the complainants to withdraw the case.	在经历了15年、200次出庭后，法庭裁定罪名成立。 在此期间，辛格的信众对调查人员、警方、法官和控方施加了各种压力，试图让他们撤销指控。


But they did not surrender, and last month, Singh was given a 20-year prison sentence.	但他们没有屈服，上个月，辛格被判20年徒刑。


Singh was always a peculiar godman, eschewing spiritual asceticism for gaudy showmanship and ostentatious living.	辛格向来是一位特别的尊者，不走宗教禁欲之路，形象花哨，生活奢靡。


He liked his hair long, his motorcycles powerful, his cars expensive, his attire sequined, and his women clingy.	他喜欢留长发，骑大排量摩托，开名贵汽车，穿亮晶晶的衣服，四周美女环绕。


He performed in popular music videos of his own composition – his biggest hit is called “Love Charger” – and had a feature film made about himself called MSG: The Messenger of God.	他出演自己亲自作词的流行音乐电视——他最著名的作品是《爱情充电器》（Love Charger），还有一部描写他本人的故事片《MSG：神的信使》（MSG: The Messenger of God）。


It is estimated that this unlikely “Rockstar Baba” attracted tens of millions of fanatical worshippers to his Dera Sacha Sauda movement.	据估计，这位不可思议的“摇滚明星巴巴”（Rockstar Baba）为他的真神宫（Dera Sacha Sauda）运动吸引了数千万狂热崇拜者。


And with the help of his henchmen, he kept the flock together in ruthlessly effective ways.	而在他的亲信的帮助下，他用冷酷高效的方式将这些拥趸召集起来。


Most notably, a crusading small-town journalist who reported the rape complaint against him was murdered in 2002.	最引人注目的是，有一位不自量力的小镇记者报道了针对他的强奸指控，结果他在2002年被杀。


Over the years, Dera Sacha Sauda amassed a significant land bank and real-estate assets, and enjoyed considerable influence in the states of Punjab and Haryana, with its reach extending to Delhi.	多年来，真神宫攫取了巨大的土地和不动产，在旁遮普和哈里亚纳邦拥有巨大的影响力，并且能够影响到德里。


It also fulfilled a fundamental need in Northern Indian society: to give millions an identity, a standing in society, and a sense of security that they and their families had not previously known.	它也满足了北印度社会的一项基本需要：它给了数百万人和他们的家庭此前一无所知的身份、社会的立足点以及安全感。


Dera members are overwhelmingly Sikhs.	真神宫的成员绝大多数是锡克教徒。


A key message of Sikhism – equality among the faithful – has in the past inspired people from the lower Hindu castes to convert.	锡克教的关键信条之一——信徒人人平等——在过去曾启发来自印度低种姓的人群该换信仰。


But so deep is the prejudice in Indian society that many converted Sikhs found that their new co-religionists of higher castes, who dominate the faith’s official religious bodies, treated them no better than Hindus had.	但印度社会的偏见太深，许多转信锡克教的人发现，他们的高种姓的新教友们主宰着这一信仰的正式宗教机构，他们获得的对待并不比在印度教中强。


Faced with an entrenched status quo, many Sikhs of less privileged backgrounds became disillusioned.	面对根深蒂固的现状，许多出身不佳的锡克教徒幻灭了。


Their feelings of anger and helplessness, compounded by poor education and soaring unemployment, often drove them toward alcohol and drugs.	他们感到愤怒、无望，再加上教育程度低下、失业大幅增加，他们常常用酒精和毒品来麻醉自己。


For these desperate people, the Dera Sacha Sauda and its charismatic leader – not to mention the several other, mostly smaller Deras dotting Punjab and Haryana – emerged as saviors.	对这些绝望的人来说，真言之家和它的魅力非凡的领袖——更不用说其他一些分布在旁遮普和哈里亚纳邦的较小的真神宫了——简直是救世主下凡。


The Dera offered free education to its members and their children and free food for the hungry.	真神宫为其成员和他们的孩子们提供免费教育，为饥饿的人提供免费粮食。


It kept the faithful off drugs, and provided employment in its enterprises, offering not only a livelihood, but also a sense of meaning and purpose.	它让信徒远离毒品，还为他们提供教办企业的岗位，不但让他们有了生计，还有了意义和使命感。


It thus delivered to its followers that most precious and intangible of human needs: a sense of worth and belonging.	因此，它给了信众最宝贵和无形的人类需求：价值和归属感。


Politicians played along with the Deras, which helped to maintain social peace, tamp down discontent, and channel frustrations toward constructive activity.	政客也和真神宫沆瀣一气，这有助于维持社会和平，安抚不满，将沮丧转化为建设性活动。


The Deras helped reduce addiction, replaced anomie with community, and redirected despair to divinity.	真神宫帮助减少了毒瘾，用社区取代失序，将绝望引导为神性。


So, rather than repudiate them as dangerous cults, successive governments rushed to embrace them.	因此，一届又一届政府并没有把他们当成危险的邪教进行打击，而是忙不迭接受它们。


The loyalty the Deras inspire among their members should not be underestimated.	真神宫在其成员当中所种下的忠诚不应该被低估。


There is, of course, the religious fervor that accompanies affiliation with a spiritual guru.	当然，追随一位精神导师总伴随着几分宗教狂热。


But at the heart of a Dera’s appeal is social and economic security, the ability to fulfill people’s basic needs.	但真神宫的号召力的核心在于社会和经济安全，即满足人的基本需要的能力。


In Singh’s case, where government and civil society failed, an apparent charlatan succeeded.	在辛格的案例中，政府和公民社会都失败了，而一位显而易见的骗子取得了成功。


That success mattered far more than Singh’s flaws.	这一成功远比辛格的缺陷重要。


People who were willing to lend their wives and daughters to their guru, for the sake of the security he offered, could not understand why the same “blessing,” extended to the two girls, should land him in jail.	为了心灵导师所提供的安全，而心甘情愿将妻子和女儿奉献给他的人们，无法明白为何同样的赐予两位女性的“保佑”会让他锒铛入狱。


As a commenter put it on Facebook, “a lost man doesn’t care if a rapist gives him direction.	一位评论者在Facebook上指出，“一个迷失的男子不会介意为他指引方向的是一个强奸犯。


A hungry man will take food from a murderer’s hand.”	一个饥饿的男子肯定会接受来自杀人犯手里的粮食。 ”


The resistance by Dera followers to their guru’s conviction exposed their fears that without him and his organization, they might once again face social and economic marginalization.	真神宫信徒拒绝接受导师被定罪暴露了他们的恐惧：没了他和他的组织，他们可能再次面临社会和经济边缘化。


They identify intensely with him, whatever he does.	他们强烈认同他，不管他做了很么。


They are willing to kill for him, because, as they might see it, they would really be killing for themselves.	他们愿意为他杀人，因为，如他们可能看到的，他们真的会为了他们自己杀人。


That commitment was apparent in the rioting and destruction that followed Singh’s conviction, in which 30 people were killed, dozens of vehicles burned, several buildings (including two new hotels) set ablaze, train carriages wrecked, and roads blocked, paralyzing life across an important swath of northern India for several days.	这一承诺在辛格被定罪后所爆发的骚乱和破坏中尽显无疑。 30人被杀，数百辆汽车被焚，多栋建筑（包括两家新饭店）被付之一炬，火车车厢被毁，道路被阻塞，北印度多处重镇日常生活好几天陷入瘫痪。


Many Indians lament that such blind religious devotion should thrive in their country in the second decade of the twenty-first century.	许多印度人哀叹，如此盲目的宗教奉献可能会在二十一世纪第二个十年的印度兴盛。


But the violence raises far more troubling questions than that.	但这场暴力所引发的问题远比这个严重。


The episode shows that India’s much-touted economic development has shallow roots, as it has failed to deliver caste equality and social justice to the underclasses.	此次事件表明，印度所吹嘘的经济发展根基甚浅，因为它并没有给下等阶级带来种姓平等和社会正义。


It shows that official institutions of governance will all too readily delegate their responsibilities, enabling those who run religious orders to live above the law.	它证明，正式治理机构时刻准备着将自己的责任转包出去，能利用宗教发号施令的人，能够凌驾于法律之上。


It shows the fragility of law enforcement, which failed so spectacularly in the face of mass fury.	它证明，执法不堪一击，面对群众暴乱全然束手无策。


And it shows the hold of charismatic leaders over vast numbers of people who find validation and purpose in unthinking obeisance.	它证明，魅力超凡的领袖可以操控为数巨大的从无脑顺从中找到意义和目标的人。


Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh Insan was flown to prison in a luxurious helicopter with an “adopted daughter” in devoted attendance; he nibbled abstractedly at a piece of chocolate as a police escort carried his bags.	巴巴·戈尔米特·拉姆·拉辛·辛格·因桑乘坐一架豪华直升飞机，在一位全身心追随他的“养女”的陪伴下来到监狱； 一名警察护卫替他运送行李，而他则漫不经心地吃着巧克力。


The Baba may be in jail – but Indian society is still in the dock.	巴巴也许进了监狱——但印度社会仍然在受到审判。


To Manage Expectations, Central Banks Need Social Media Savvy	要管理预期，央行需要精通社交媒体之道


LONDON – As global economic growth gathers pace, with the International Monetary Fund reporting that all of the G20 countries are now in an expansion phase, we are at last entering a process of normalization of interest rates and monetary policy.	伦敦—随着全球经济增长的起势，国际货币基金组织（IMF）报告所有G20国家都已经进入扩张阶段，我们也终于正在进入利率和货币政策正常化的过程。


That shift has been a long time coming, and in 2008 few would have forecast that the impact of the financial crisis that erupted that year would be so durable.	这一转变等待了很久，2008年，很少有人预见到当年爆发的金融危机的影响会持续如此长时间。


It is fair to say that policy normalization is proceeding at different speeds in different places.	平心而论，政策正常化的节奏，不同地区各有不同。


The US Federal Reserve is furthest ahead, having already lifted rates twice, while in the Eurozone and Japan, normalization is more anticipated than experienced.	目前最领先的是美联储，它已经两次上调利率，而在欧洲和日本，正常化更多只是预期，而不是现实。


But the general direction of change is clear.	但总体方向的变化是明确的。


In the Fed’s “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen forecast “gradual increases in the federal funds rate.”	在美联储的《国会货币政策半年报》（Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress）中，美联储主席耶伦（Janet Yellen）预测“联邦基金利率将逐渐上升”。


At the same time, the Fed is already reducing its holdings of US Treasury bills and mortgage bonds.	与此同时，美联储已经减少了其美国国债和按揭债券的持有量。


In other words, so-called quantitative easing (QE) is being replaced in the US by QT, or quantitative tightening.	换句话说，所谓的量化宽松（QE）在美国正在被QT（量化紧缩）取代。


The European Central Bank has been less clear about its intentions, but has sounded notably more optimistic about growth in the eurozone, noting that all the job losses associated with the crisis have now been offset.	欧洲央行的意图不那么明确，但对欧元区增长的态度显然已经更加乐观，认为所有与危机相关的就业损失都已经抵消。


A tapering of eurozone QE is now widely expected.	欧元区QE减磅已是广泛的预期。


For the Bank of England (BoE), Governor Mark Carney has emphasized the need to raise rates in the near future, given that UK inflation is well above target.	至于英格兰银行，行长卡尼（Mark Carney）强调近期升息的必要性，因为英国通胀已经大大高于 目标。


But it is clear that central bankers are nervous about moving rapidly, and are worried about the potential impact of policy tightening on financial markets.	但显然，央行官员们对于迅速行动还是颇为紧张，并且担心政策紧缩对金融市场的潜在影响。


They are right to be anxious.	他们理应担忧。


Interest rates have been ultra-low for a long time.	利率在极低水平上保持了很长时间。


The last upward move in London was a decade ago.	伦敦上一次升息还是十年前。


For most of today’s inhabitants of bank trading floors, that is ancient history.	对于今天的大部分银行交易员来说，升息已经是上古时代的事情了。


So one can sense that the monetary authorities are very concerned to prepare the ground for their next moves.	因此，你可能会觉得货币当局非常关注为后续动作做好准备。


They are persuaded that influencing expectations is critical.	他们认定，影响预期至关重要。


If markets expect a move, some of the needed adjustments will take place in advance, reducing the potential cost of change.	如果市场预期它们会采取行动，那么一些必要的调整会提前发生，降低变化的潜在成本。


Central bankers have done a decent job of managing market expectations, certainly in the United States.	央行官员在管理市场预期方面做得相当出色，在美国显然是如此。


There cannot be many people in the financial sector who will be surprised if the Fed raises rates again this year.	如果美联储在今年再次升息，金融业没有多少人会感到吃惊。


Preparing opinion for a move is more complicated in the United Kingdom.	在英国，为行动观点做好准备要更复杂一些。


The voting system used by the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee makes it harder for the governor to know when a majority for tightening will emerge, and some members’ views have been oscillating in recent months.	英格兰银行货币政策委员会的投票制度决定了其行长比较难以获知什么时候会出现大部分人支持紧缩的情况，而一些成员的观点，在最近几个月中左右摇摆。


Still, Carney has been doing his best to drop heavy hints about his own intentions.	尽管如此，卡尼仍在竭尽全力暗示他自己的意图。


But although financial markets may be prepared, can we say the same of individuals, households, and small businesses?	但即便金融市场也许做好了准备，个人、家庭和小企业呢？


Consumer debt remains high in many places, and certainly in the UK there are few signs that the prospect of higher interest rates is dissuading consumers from taking on more debt.	许多国家消费者债务仍然高企，而在英国，显然有不少信号表明提高利率的前景正在促使消费者更多举债。


There is clearly a risk that consumers may react more sharply to rate increases when they eventually occur.	当升息真的发生时，消费者反应过激的危险显然是存在的。


Of course, central banks do not normally speak directly to consumers.	当然，央行通常不会直接面向消费者发话。


They must rely on their messages being passed through several hands, including broadcasters and personal finance journalists, before they reach the high street.	它们必须依靠多种信息传递渠道，包扩广播电视和个体财经记者，才能抵达商界。


The BoE has made some recent efforts to address consumers, but its direct reach is inevitably modest.	英格兰银行最近采取了一些行动安抚消费者，但直接接触面难免非常有限。


And there is evidence that communications by central banks are not well suited to the consumer market.	而有证据表明，央行的沟通目前与消费市场并不十分契合。


In an intriguing recent speech, Andy Haldane, the BoE’s chief economist, marshals survey evidence on how well central banks are understood by the populations they are trying to influence.	在一次有趣的最新讲话中，英格兰银行首席经济学家安迪·哈尔丹（Andy Haldane）用调查证据说明了央行想要影响的群众对央行的理解情况。


Researchers have looked at the reading level required to understand central banks’ publications, and at the percentage of the population that reads at that level.	研究者着眼于理解央行发布讯息所需要的阅读水平，以及有多大比例的群众能够达到这一水平。


The results are alarming.	结果令人警惕。


While about 70% of the population can understand a campaign speech by Donald Trump, and 60% can grasp the significance of the lyrics of an Elvis Presley song, only 2% have the reading ability necessary to understand the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee.	大约70%的群众能够理解特朗普的竞选演说，60%能够抓住猫王歌曲的歌词大意，但只有2%的群众具备理解美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）备忘录所必须的阅读能力。


Now one might reasonably say that no one should expect Joe or Joanna Blow to spend their Saturday evenings reading FOMC minutes.	现在，你可以非常合理地推断，不必指望乔（Joe）或乔安娜·布洛（Joanna Blow）在星期六晚上去阅读FOMC的备忘录。


But only slightly more than 20% can understand what the mainstream press writes about monetary policy.	但能理解主流媒体所撰写的货币政策报道的群众比例也只有略高于20%。


And this is a problem not only for the Fed.	这个问题不仅仅只有美联储需要面对。


The minutes of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee are somewhat more demotic in style, but not much more.	英格兰银行货币政策委员会的备忘录在风格上要略微通俗一些，但强不了多少。


The Campaign for Plain English, a lobbying group, has described the Bank’s statements as “worthless, impenetrable waffle.”	游说集团通俗英语运动（Campaign for Plain English）说英格兰银行的陈述是“毫无价值，让人不知所云的胡扯”。


There are no comparable statistics or verdicts for the ECB, but I would be surprised if the results were any different.	对于欧洲央行，我们没有可比数据或评判，但我怀疑结果也不会有什么不同。


The results are a disappointment to central bankers, who, to their credit, have been enhancing their communications in recent years.	结果对央行官员来说是失望的，平心而论，近几年来他们一直在加强沟通。


Not so long ago, a BoE governor took pride in clouding decisions in decent obscurity.	不久前，英格兰银行行长仍会因为做出相当不错的晦涩两可的决策而自豪。


In the last 20 years, that curmudgeonly attitude has vanished.	在过去20年中，这一古怪的态度已经烟消云散。


But, as Haldane concludes, further effort is needed.	但哈尔丹认为，还需要继续在这个方向上努力。


People get their news in different ways nowadays, and central banks, he says, “must ensure they reach the parts of society they previously have not reached, using media they have not previously used, conversing as much as convincing.”	如今，人们通过各种渠道获得新闻，至于央行，哈尔丹说，“必须确保它们能够直达此前无法到达的社会群体，使用此前它们没有用过的媒体，以尽量肯定的方式说话。


Trump has shown that he can do it, albeit often with deleterious results.	”特朗普证明了他能做到这一点，尽管常常因此带来伤害性结果。


The Fed chair appointed early next year, whether Yellen or a new nominee, should consider following the communications trail Trump has blazed.	明年年初履新的美联储主席，不论是耶伦还是新人，都应该考虑特朗普所发扬光大的沟通技巧。


The Authoritarian Temptation	威权诱惑