What individuals bring into any setting is important, but so are the situational forces that act on them, as well as the systemic forces that create and maintain situations.	个体给任何情境带去什么很重要，但是作用于他们身上的情境力量以及制造和维持情境的系统力量也同等重要。


Most institutions that are invested in an individualistic orientation hold up the person as sinner, culpable, afflicted, insane, or irrational.	大多数以达到个体目标为主的情境展现出人是罪人、应受谴责的、受折磨的、精神错乱的或是不失去理性的。


Programs of change follow either a medical model of rehabilitation, therapy, reeducation, and treatment, or a punitive model of incarceration and execution.	研究人的转变的项目会跟踪接受康复治疗、精神治疗、再教育和诊治的医疗模型或接受监禁或被判处死刑的受到惩罚的模型。


But all such programs are doomed to fail if the main causal agent is the situation or system, not the person.	但是如果主要的施事者是情境或体系而不是人，那么所有这些研究项目都注定会失败。


As a result, two kinds of paradigm shift are required.	其结果是，我们需要进行两种理论框架的转变。


First, we need to adopt a public health model for prevention of violence, spouse abuse, bullying, prejudice, and more that identifies vectors of social disease to be inoculated against.	第一，我们需要建立一个公共健康模型以防止发生暴力、虐待配偶、威吓、偏见，并且给一些识别出的社会疾病的向量注射预防针。


Second, legal theory must reconsider the extent to which powerful situational and systemic factors should be taken into account in punishing individuals.	第二，法律理论必须重新考虑在惩罚个体时应该在多大程度上考虑强大的情境和系统因素。


Although much of  The Lucifer Effect examines how easy it is for ordinary people to be seduced into engaging in evil deeds, or to be passively indifferent to the suffering of others, the deeper message is a positive one.	尽管《路西法效应》的大部分内容研究了普通人群会多么容易地被诱使去做邪恶的事情或者对他人所遭受的痛苦置若罔闻，但是它所带来的深层次的信息还是积极的。


It is by understanding the how and why of such deeds that we are in a better position to uncover, oppose, defy, and triumph over them.	我们应该认识到当处于一个更佳的情境时我们怎样以及为什么去掩盖、反对、蔑视以及战胜这些邪恶的事情。


By becoming more “evil smart,” we build up resistance to having our moral compass reset negatively.	通过变得更加“邪恶地聪明”，我们为阻止我们的道德指针拨向负的一面建起了一道墙。


In this sense,  The Lucifer Effect is a celebration of the human capacity to choose kindness over cruelty, caring over indifference, creativity over destructiveness, and heroism over villainy.	从这种意义上来说，《路西法效应》祝贺了人类选择善良而不是残忍，关爱而不是冷漠，创造而不是破坏，以及英雄主义而不是邪恶行为的能力。


At the end of my narrative, I invite readers to consider fundamental strategies of resisting and challenging unwanted social influences, and I introduce the notion of “the banality of heroism.”	在我即将结束这篇文章时，我邀请读者们一起来思考拒绝和挑战不需要的社会影响的基本策略，在此我引入了“老套的英雄主义”的观点。


After all, most heroes are ordinary people who engage in extra-ordinary moral actions.	不管怎样，大多数英雄只不过是做了一些超乎寻常的道德行为的普通人而已。


With this in mind, I propose a situational perspective for heroism, just as I do for evil: the same situation that can inflame the  hostile imagination and evil in some of us can inspire the  heroic imagination  in others.	有了这种想法，我提议对英雄主义进行情境的透视，就像我对邪恶行为进行的透视一样：在我们某些人身上激起 敌对想象 和邪恶行为的情境可以在其他人身上激起 英雄主义的想象 。


We must teach people, especially our children, to think of themselves as “heroes-in-waiting,” ready to take heroic action in a particular situation that may occur only once in their lifetime.	我们必须教导人们，尤其是我们的孩子，把他们自己想象成“将会成为英雄”，在遇到也许在他们的一生中只会发生一次的特定情境下会随时做出英雄的举动。


The Lynching of Libya	利比亚私刑


NEW YORK – Many would say that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi got what he deserved.	纽约——很多人会说，卡扎菲罪有应得。


Live by the sword, die by the sword.	所谓水能载舟，亦能覆舟，是之谓也。


The Libyan tyrant happily allowed his opponents, or anyone who annoyed him, to be tortured or killed.	对于反对者以及让自己感到不安者，这位利比亚暴君从来是杀人不眨眼。


So it seems only right that he died with summary violence.	因此，他死于草率的暴力可谓死得其所。


After being hunted down in a dirty drainpipe, he was displayed like a bloody trophy before being battered and shot by a lynch mob.	卡扎菲在一条干涸的下水道中被擒获，保守私刑折磨——先是虐揍，然后被枪杀，尸体鲜血淋漓。


And it happened in his hometown of Sirte.	而这一幕发生在其故乡苏尔特。


This is primitive justice, to be sure, but how else could justice be done to a mass murderer?	平心而论，这可谓以彼之道还施彼身，但对于一位血债累累的杀人犯，难道还要对他讲公正吗？


Yet there is something deeply disturbing about a lynching, regardless of the victim.	但私刑总是令人大为不安，不管施加的对象是谁。


Even as cheering crowds in Sirte and Tripoli were rejoicing at the despot’s death, others voiced doubts over the manner of his humiliating end.	苏尔特和的黎波里的群众为暴君之死欢呼雀跃，但还是有不少声音质疑卡扎菲之死是否太不体面了。


The French public intellectual Bernard-Henri Lévy, who had promoted the Libyan revolution with a strong dose of narcissistic showmanship, wrote that the lynching of Qaddafi “polluted the essential morality” of the people’s rebellion.	以孤芳自赏式的表演大力宣扬利比亚革命的法国公共知识分子莱维（Bernard-Henri Lévy）写道，对卡扎菲的私刑“玷污了”人民起义的“基本道德”。


One might quibble with this description.	你可能对这一论断颇有微言。


As in all violent revolutions, the morality of the dictator’s opponents was never entirely without blemish.	与所有的暴力革命一样，独裁者反对派的道德从来不会是完美无缺的。


The rebels, who reduced Qaddafi’s birthplace to rubble, were in some cases as ruthlessly brutal as the men against whom they were fighting.	反对派让卡扎菲的家乡沦为了一片废墟，从某种角度上说，他们与他们所推翻的体制一样冷血野蛮。


But there is something else wrong with Lévy’s critique.	但莱维的批评还有其他错误。


To talk about the pollution of morality is to miss the point.	说“玷污道德”是树错了靶子。


The problem with rough justice, in the form of revenge, is not that it is immoral.	以复仇之名践踏公正并不是不道德的问题。


Many of us can see the appeal of the Old Testament principle of “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.”	许多人都记得《旧约圣经》中有“以眼还眼，以牙还牙”的句子。


We want a person who made others suffer to suffer as well, preferably in equal measure.	对于给别人带来痛苦的人，我们希望他也遭到报应，受到相同的痛苦。


Justice almost always contains an element of revenge.	公正几乎总是包含着复仇的元素。


The problem with revenge, however, is that it provokes further revenge, setting in motion a cycle of violence and counter-violence – the culture of vendetta.	但是，复仇的问题在于它会激发冤冤相报，行程暴力-反暴力的循环，也就是世仇文化。


And vendetta is by definition not so much immoral, or even unjust, as it is lawless.	而世仇顾名思义是不道德的，甚至也是不公正的，因为它是非法的。


It thrives in societies that are not bound by laws that apply equally to all, or even by any formal laws at all.	世仇通常盛行于无法做到法律面前人人平等（或根本不存在正式法律）的社会。


Codes of honor are not the same as the rule of law.	德治不能代替法治。


While the rule of law does not necessarily satisfy everyone’s sense of justice, it does stop the cycle of violent retribution.	法治精神不一定能给所有人都带来公正的感觉，但它可以制止暴力的冤冤相报。


The ancient Greeks understood this well.	古希腊人能够很好地理解这一点。


The greatest play about the tension between law and justice is Aeschylus’s The Eumenides, a story of murder and vengeance in which the furies represent justice.	反应法律和公正之间的矛盾的最伟大戏剧是埃斯库罗斯的《欧墨尼得斯》（The Eumenides），这是一个关于谋杀和复仇的故事，在这个故事中，愤怒代表了公正。 愤怒让人们对严重罪行以牙还牙，他们说：“我们宣布，我们代表了真正的公正。


They drive people to avenge terrible misdeeds, saying: “We claim we represent true justice….Blood avengers, always in pursuit, we chase them to the end.” So it is that the furies help Orestes to wreak vengeance on his mother, Clytaemnestra, for killing his father, Agamemnon.	……我们要他们以血还血，追杀他们到天涯海角。 ”于是，愤怒让俄瑞斯忒斯（Orestes）以武力复仇的方式杀了其母克吕泰涅斯特拉（Clytaemnestra），为其父阿伽门农（Agamemnon）报了仇。


Orestes murders her, thus continuing the cycle of violence.	俄瑞斯忒斯杀了克吕泰涅斯特拉，也种下了暴力循环的种子。


Athena, the Goddess of Wisdom and patron of Athens, decides that only a fair trial, with a jury of twelve men, can pacify the furies and restore peace.	智慧女神、雅典守护者雅典娜认为，只有用12名陪审员做出的公正判决可以平息愤怒、重塑和平。


But trials are rarely perfect.	但判决绝少是完美的。


In this case, the jury is evenly divided, forcing Athena to give the verdict, which is to acquit Orestes.	在这个例子中，愤怒被平摊，雅典娜做出了宽恕俄瑞斯忒斯的判决。


This may not have served the rough justice demanded by the furies, but it established the rule of law, which civilized Athens.	这也许不能满足愤怒者的粗暴公正要求，但这树立了法治精神，让雅典进入了文明。


To be sure, Athenian democracy was not much like our modern democracies, nor is ancient Athens much like Tripoli today.	平心而论，雅典式民主与现代民主还有诸多不同，古雅典和现在的的黎波里也大相径庭。


Even so, The Eumenides holds an important lesson that remains valid: violence, unchecked by law, will not end.	尽管如此，《欧墨尼得斯》至今都能给我们不少重要教益：不受法律遏制，暴力将永无止境。


Revolutions born in bloodshed almost always create more bad blood.	由流血产生的暴力总是会造成更大的流血。


This was true 2,500 years ago, and it is true today.	2 500年前是如此，现在依然如此。


Few people have understood this better than the Polish democratic activist and thinker Adam Michnik, one of the heroes who in the 1980’s helped to end the Communist dictatorship in his country.	没有人比波兰民主活动家和思想家米奇尼克（Adam Michnik）更理解这一点的了。 米奇尼克是20世纪80年代终结共产主义独裁的干将之一。


While other Poles demanded vengeful rough justice against the Communist rulers and their accomplices, Michnik counseled negotiation, compromise, and reconciliation, even with former oppressors.	当其他波兰人出于复仇心理要求对共产主义统治者及其帮凶施以粗暴公正时，米奇尼克呼吁进行谈判、妥协和和解，即使对方曾经是暴君。


Michnik admits that all revolutions are incomplete in the sense that not all sinners are punished, and not all virtuous people are rewarded.	米奇尼克承认，所有革命都是不完全的，因为并非所有罪恶都会得到清算，也不是所有高尚都会获得奖赏。


But, he says, that outcome would mean further violence: “The compensation for suffered harm invariably brings new harm, often more cruel than what came before.”	但是，他说，这样的结果将意味着继续暴力：“对受害者的补偿总是一成不变地带来新的比前一次更残酷的伤害。


This is why Qaddafi’s lynching party is a dangerous omen for Libya.	这就是为什么卡扎菲的私刑狂欢对利比亚来说是个危险的预兆。


It would have been far better if he had been handed over alive to be judged in a court of law.	将卡扎菲活捉并由法庭进行依法宣判要好得多。


A criminal trial in Libya might have been difficult.	在利比亚进行刑事诉讼是很困难的。


A 42-year dictatorship does not exactly provide fertile ground for the learning and experience needed to create an impartial court.	42年的独裁统治意味着根本不存在出现公正法庭所需要的知识和经验。


And it is probably impossible for a former dictator’s victims to judge him without prejudice.	让前独裁者的受害者来对其进行宣判可能也无法保证不带偏见。


That is precisely why the International Criminal Court in The Hague was established.	这就是设立海牙国际刑事法庭的原因。


Putting Qaddafi on trial probably would not have satisfied every Libyan’s feeling of injustice, but it might have helped to instill in Libyans greater respect for the rule of law.	将卡扎菲诉诸法庭无法满足所有利比亚人的公正感，但能给利比亚人带来更光明的法治精神前景。


Perhaps a trial of Qaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, will have this effect.	也许对卡扎菲之子赛义夫（Saif al-Islam）进行审判也能产生这样的效果。


If so, standing trial in The Hague would be the best service he could render to his country.	果真如此的话，在海牙受审将是他给他的国家带去的最后礼物。


The Lynchpin of Asia	亚洲的关键要地


NEW DELHI – Isolated and impoverished by decades of international sanctions, Myanmar (Burma) has emerged in recent months as both a beacon of hope and a potential new Asian flashpoint.	发自新德里——在经历了数十年国际制裁下的孤立和贫困之后，缅甸近来摇身一变成为了希望明灯和亚洲的潜在新亮点。


With Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi freed from two decades of house arrest to campaign vigorously for a seat in parliament in the special election to be held on April 1, Burma’s commitment to rejoining the international community appears to be genuine.	随着诺贝尔和平奖获得者昂山素季摆脱持续二十年的软禁并奋力投入即将在4月1日举行的国会特别选举，缅甸重返国际社会的承诺似乎是真心诚意的。


But this opening has other consequences, most importantly setting the stage for a new “great game” of strategic competition.	但这一开放政策也引发了其他的后果，而其中最重要的则被设定在一个新“大国博弈”的战略竞争平台上。


No one should be surprised that Burma is a locus of interest for great powers.	毫无疑问，缅甸是大国利益的核心焦点。


After all, it is larger than France and with a similar population size.	毕竟这是一个比法国幅员面积更大且人口数量相近的国家。


In his recent book Monsoon, Robert Kaplan notes that in the Middle Ages three kingdoms lay between Thailand (then called Siam) and India. One was Myanmar, which means “that which is central.”	在新书《季风》中，罗伯特·卡普兰（Robert Kaplan）提到中世纪时期的泰国（时称暹罗）和印度之间存在着三个王国，其中一个名为缅甸（Myanmar）——也就是“位于中间”之意。


Centuries later, Burma remains central, not only in matters of Asian security, but also for the country’s vast and still mostly untapped natural wealth.	在几个世纪之后，这个换了一种叫法（Burma）的国家依然处于各方的中心，不仅事关亚洲的安全事务，还与该国巨大且尚未成分开发的自然资源有关。


Burma’s strategic importance reflects, first and foremost, its geographic location between India, China, Thailand, and Southeast Asia.	首先，也是最重要的一点，就是缅甸的战略重要性取决于它位处印度、中国，泰国和东南亚四者交界的地理位置。


Ringed in the north by the southern ridges of the Himalayas, to the east by foothills of dense teak forests, and to the west and south by the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean, Burma’s geography has always shaped the country’s history and politics.	北向喜马拉雅山南脉，东临茂密的柚木林，西南两侧则分别是孟加拉和印度洋，缅甸的历史和政治一直都被该国的地理位置所左右。


In 1885, during an earlier era of great power competition in Asia, Lord Randolph Churchill, Winston Churchill’s father, impulsively annexed Burma to the British Raj in India following the Third Anglo-Burmese War.	在1885年，在亚洲大国博弈刚刚揭幕之时，温斯顿·丘吉尔的父亲，兰道夫·丘吉尔爵士，在第三次英缅战争中断然将缅甸并入英国在印度的统治之下。


Thant Myint-U, a leading historian of contemporary Burma (and the son of former United Nations Secretary-General U Thant), likened Churchill’s move to “throwing Burma off a cliff.”	对此第三任联合国秘书长，缅甸外交官吴丹（1961~1971年在任）之子，当代缅甸史研究的领军人物吴丹敏将丘吉尔的行为比作“将缅甸抛下悬崖”。


Only in 1937, by a decree of the British viceroy, was Burma finally separated from British India.	直到1937年，在英国总督的判令之下缅甸最终得以从英属印度中独立出来。


But the Japanese invasion five years later subjugated Burma and its people to colonial rule once again, with the conquering sweep of the Imperial Japanese Army checked only at Imphal, in India’s Manipur state.	但5年之后的日本入侵又把缅甸及其人民压制在殖民统治之下，而日军的扫荡也最终被遏制在当今印度曼尼普尔区首府英帕尔一线。


The end of the British Empire in 1947 gave Burma its freedom, but did not end its travails.	大英帝国统治在1947年最终走向终，但缅甸虽然获得了自由，却未能结束其痛苦。


The assassination of Aung San (Suu Kyi’s father and the leader of Burma’s independence movement) destabilized the country, paving the way for the army to take over.	昂山素季的父亲，缅甸独立运动领导人昂山将军的遇刺令这个国家陷入动荡，也为军队的接管铺平了道路。


Under its long-serving military junta, Burma shut itself off from the world, internalized its problems, and stagnated as the rest of Asia boomed.	但长期的军政府统治下，缅甸向世界关上了大门，使其问题内部化，并在亚洲其他地区蓬勃兴起之时陷入了停滞。


The world reciprocated, isolating Burma economically and diplomatically.	而世界对此的回应则是将缅甸在经济和外交两方面都孤立了起来。


It was to this Burma that I journeyed from Imphal some 10 years ago, the first Indian foreign minister to travel overland to its neighbor since independence.	这就是那个我十多年前到访的缅甸，而这也是自印度独立以来本国外交部长首次对这个邻国展开访问。


India’s Border Roads Organization had recently completed the first all-weather road connecting the two countries since WWII.	印度的边境公路组织最近完成了连接两国的全天候公路，也是自二战以来两国首次实现了交通对接。


Journeying on this “road to fabled Mandalay,” I recorded in my diary, was a highlight of “one of the most memorable, satisfying, and happy foreign visits in my experience as Foreign Minister.”	在这条“通往传说中的曼德勒之路”上飞驰，我在日记上写道，“是我外长经历中最值得记念，最令人满意，也是最快乐的一次外交访问。 ”


China, too, has endeavored for centuries to bind Burma to itself, mostly in search of a southern route to India and the Indian Ocean.	而中国几个世纪以来也想方设法把缅甸捆绑在自己的战车上，主要是为了寻找通往印度和印度洋的南部通道。


In recent decades, China took advantage of the international community’s shunning of Burma to secure its own strategic interests, building highways, railways, ports, and pipelines that connect southern and western China to the Indian Ocean.	在最近几十年中，中国利用国际社会对缅甸的孤立来为自己的战略利益服务，兴建了大量连接本国西部地区和印度洋的铁路，港口和输油管道。


But trade has not been China’s only motivation for investing so heavily in Burma. China also views Burma as vital to its quest for security, as well as to the regional expansion of Chinese power.	但贸易可不是中国苦心经营缅甸的唯一动机，因为它同时也将缅甸视为维护自身国家安全以及国家势力扩张必不可少的一部份。


Reflecting its fears about the potential for Chinese encirclement, democratic India, after early hiccups of doubt, set aside its scruples about Burma’s military regime.	为了免遭中国的围困，印度这个民主国家在起初迟疑了一阵之后也开始把对缅甸军政权的顾虑放在了一边。


India’s cultural, economical, social, and sometimes military ties with Burma – indeed, with the entire region – are older than China’s.	印度与缅甸之间的文化、经济，社会以及有时在军事上——事实上，与整个区域——的联系都比中国更加久远。


So, for reasons of Realpolitik, India expanded its activities and investments in Burma throughout the last two decades of the junta’s rule.	因此在实力政治（Realpolitik）的考虑下，印度在缅甸军政府统治的过去20年间扩大了其在缅活动以及投资。


Sometimes the competition with China is direct.	有时与中国的竞争是面对面的。


At the Shwe gas fields along the Burmese cost, estimated to be among the largest reserves in the world, two pipelines are to be constructed: one to China from the nearby port of Kyauk Phru, and the other to India from the port of Sittwe.	在缅甸沿海地区的Shwe天然气田——据估计是全球储量最大的天然气田——正在兴建两条管道：一条从附近皎漂（Kyauk Phru）港通往中国，另一条则从实兑（Sittwe）港通往印度。


For Thant, this strategic competition is worrying.	而对于吴丹敏来说，这场战略竞争是令人忧虑的。


The “crossroads through Burma,” he argues, cannot “be a simple joining up of countries,” because the regions of “China and India that are being drawn together over Burma are among the most far-flung parts of the two giant states, regions of unparalleled ethnic and linguistic diversity….isolated upland societies that were, until recently, beyond the control of Delhi or Beijing.”	他认为，“这些穿越缅甸的公路”不可能“意味着各国就此连通了起来”，因为“中国和印度两国与缅甸接壤的地区都属于这两个大国最为边远的地区，其语言文化都（与中央地区）差异极大……那些隔绝在崇山峻岭之间的社会群体至今都超脱于德里或者北京的掌控之外。


While China seeks strategic depth in Burma, India’s interests there are now reanimated by the international community’s opening to a country that appears to yearn for the same democratic freedoms that Indians possess.	当中国在缅甸寻找战略纵深的同时，印度的利益如今则受到国际社会对缅甸——这个似乎渴望获得印度人所拥有的自由的国家——的开放所鼓舞。


And, in Aung San Suu Kyi, who studied in New Delhi (as did her mother, Daw Khin Kyi, who was Ambassador to India and Nepal in 1960), Burma possesses a charismatic moral leader who reminds Indians of their country’s own founders.	而由于昂山素季曾就读于新德里（正如其母，曾于1960年任缅甸驻印度和尼泊尔大使的朵钦季那样），缅甸也拥有了一个能像印度一样使自己的民众回忆起本国创立者的，富有道德魅力的领导人。


As a result, Realpolitik and economic interest alone will no longer shape the great game playing out in Burma.	由此可见，发生缅甸的大国博弈斗争将不仅仅由实力政治和经济利益所塑造。


Ideals and the quest for freedom will also play a critical role.	人们的理想以及对自由的渴望也将扮演一个关键角色。


The Machine That Ate Jobs	人力工作的终结者


Insecurity about jobs is a defining characteristic of our age.	对于工作的不安全感是我们这个时代的显著特征。


Two worries arise most often: globalization, which makes jobs migrate to poorer regions, and computer technology, which can make them disappear altogether.	有两种忧虑时常困扰我们：全球化-它使工作机会转移到更穷的地区； 计算机技术-它可以完全剥夺我们的工作机会。


These worries plague people of all incomes, ages, and in all countries.	这些忧虑笼罩着不同收入，年龄和国家的人们。


As shown by Mexico's laments about job losses to China, people in emerging countries worry as much as those in advanced countries.	墨西哥对被中国抢了饭碗的事实耿耿于怀，这说明新兴国家人们的日子并不比发达国家的人好过。


In response, politicians propose various job retraining or education programs, but rarely confront the real long-term issues.	作为回应，政治家们提出了林林总总的再就业培训或教育计划，但都不足以应对长期性的问题。


Worries about globalization and the computer revolution ultimately boil down to the same thing, because globalization is mostly a consequence of new information technology.	对于全球化和计算机技术革命的担忧最终都可以归结到一点，因为全球化在很大程度上是新信息技术发展的结果。


Computers and the Internet made it possible to send information almost costlessly, and to do business across cultures and continents.	计算机和互联网使我们可以几乎没有成本地传输资讯，进行跨文化和跨国度的商务往来。


The worry is that information technology is now on the bend of a "hockey stick" curve, where it will suddenly take off at much greater speed than before.	（人们的）忧虑在于信息技术现在到了"起飞"的前夕，它会突然以前所未有的速度发展。


The resulting changes will not all be welcome in economic terms.	这样的飞速发展所带来的变化从经济学的角度来看并不都是积极的。


Hockey stick curves often occur in nature.	这种曲棍球棒曲线似的加速发展在自然界常有发生。


Exponential growth at a fixed percentage rate can look like a hockey stick.	一种在固定百分比上的指数式增长可能看上去就像一支曲棍球棒。


Five percent per year of $1 is only five cents, 5% of $10 is only 50 cents, and the curve appears flat for a while.	在年利率5%的情况下，1美金的年利息只有5美分，10美金的年利息只有50美分。


But then the growth becomes massive: five percent of a billion is $50 million.	这样的增长曲线在某一阶段是平坦的，可随后就变成了急剧的增长：10亿美金的年利率就达到5千万美金。


Information technology is growing at a faster pace than 5%.	信息技术每年正以超过5%的速度发展。


According to "Moore's Law" -- named after the president of Intel, who formulated it in 1975 -- the amount of components on a computer chip doubles every two years.	根据"摩尔定律"-由英特尔的前总裁在1975年阐明，并以其名字命名-计算机芯片上的元件数量每两年就要翻一番。


That is about a 40% annual growth rate.	也就是说其年增长率在40%左右。


The economic impact of such an exponential growth path, starting from small beginnings and viewed over decades, will certainly look like one very large hockey stick.	从其微不足道的发端到数十年以后的考量，这种指数级的增长轨迹的经济影响看上去一定会像一只巨大的曲棍球棒。


Fears about computers eliminating jobs are, of course, not new.	当然，对于计算机取代人力工作的担心并非一朝一夕。


Fifty years ago, Norbert Wiener of MIT, a great 20th century mathematician and pioneer of computer science, warned of the threat that computers posed to jobs.	50年前，20世纪伟大的数学家，计算机学科的先驱，麻省理工的诺伯特·维恩纳(Norbert Wiener)就提醒我们计算机对人力工作的威胁。


The economic problems that Wiener worried about have not materialized so far .	维恩纳所担心的经济问题至今尚未出现。


A half-century later, nothing really bad happened to any major segment of our population that can be blamed on computers.	半个世纪之后，还没有任何发生在我们人口当中的真正糟糕的事情能被归咎于计算机。


But that is because computers started from small beginnings, so that we have up to now only been on the flat part of the hockey stick.	但这只是因为计算机技术发展的起点微不足道，所以我们到现在还只是处于其平坦发展的阶段。


Now that a critical mass has been reached, will we see a dramatically different effect on employment?	一旦其发展达到了临界点，我们会看到它对就业带来的全然不同的影响吗？


Of course, on average, advances in computer technology must be good news.	诚然， 一般 说来，计算机技术的进步总是好消息。


Not only are computers productive, but they serve people, rather than being their competitors.	计算机不但具有生产力，还能服务人类，且不会成为人类的竞争对手。


Powerful new computers will make the human race as a whole better off.	强大的新型计算机将会在整体上增进人类的福祉。


The problem is that real people are not just "average," so the real question concerns how the benefits derived from computers are distributed.	问题是真实的人们并不仅仅是"一般性"的概念，因此问题的关键在于由计算机带来的利益究竟如何分配。


The core problem with information technology is that its economic benefits might be concentrated and that the wealth it creates may accrue predominantly to people who have subtle skills that computers can't duplicate, or who have the first-mover advantage, or who have the right business connections.	信息技术的核心问题是其产生的经济利益可能会过度集中； 它创造的财富会主要被某些人占据，这些人或具有不可被电脑复制的精湛技能，或具有先入为主的优势，抑或拥有特定的商务联系。


Older information technology has already created "winner-take-all" effects in some occupations.	较老的信息技术已经在某些职业领域创造了"胜者全赢"的结果。


Phonograph records (an early example of information technology) created musical superstars who sell their services to millions of people, putting out of business countless local performers who found their talents obsolete.	留声机唱片（信息技术的早期产物）走进千家万户，缔造了音乐界的超级巨星，也使无数不合时宜的乡土艺人失业。


Television (another older form of information technology) did the same thing for actors and athletes.	电视（信息技术的另一早期产物）也对演员和运动员施加了同样的影响。


But phonographs and television are limited compared to what is possible now - or may be possible soon.	但和现今的-或即将成为可能的信息技术成果相比，留声机和电视的影响仍然有限。


In the new economic world, many more occupations may follow the route of discarded local musicians, resulting in wealth concentrations on a vastly greater scale than before.	在新的经济现实中，更多的职业会步乡土音乐人终遭淘汰的后尘，从而带来前所未有的，更大规模的财富集中。


The risks created by computer technology are real and frightening.	计算机技术带来的风险实实在在，且令人恐惧。


They will not be seriously changed by retraining and reeducation programs, which will not give most people the skills they need to remain more efficient than the new machines.	它们不会因再培训或再教育计划的实施而大有改观。 对绝大多数人来说，这些计划都不能赋予他们所需的技能使他们保持比新型的机器更高的工作效率。


Instead, these risks must be dealt with by fundamental changes - changes that will not make individuals more productive than machines, but will allow society to manage risks better and to redistribute them.	这些风险只有通过根本性的变革来应对-���些变革并不能使人类个体变得比机器更具产能，但却能使社会更好地管理和重新分布风险。


For example, as the difference in rewards provided by the market to those with and without special skills grows, a progressive tax system to subsidize low-wage jobs becomes more necessary.	例如，随着拥有和没有特殊技能的劳力从市场获得的报酬日渐拉大差距，就更有必要实行一种能够补贴低收入工作的累进税制。


Other likely steps include broadening the scope of private insurance policies, so that they cover some risks that generate inequality, such as the loss of the market value of human capital or of one's home.	其它类似的举措包括拓展个人保险的范围从而使其能够涵盖一些造成经济不平等的风险，如人力资本市场价值的丧失或无家可归的情况。


Borrowing and lending institutions will need to change, so that they better cushion people against the risk of personal bankruptcy.	借贷款机构也需要进行改革，从而使它们能够更好地为人们缓冲破产的风险。


Financial markets will have to be broadened, so that people and businesses can better hedge their risks.	金融市场将不得不进行扩容，从而使个人和公司都能更好的规避风险。


It is important to start thinking about what changes lay ahead, because it may be harder to agree later on.	现在就开始思索我们会面临的改变十分重要。 因为随着时间推移人们会更难达成共识。


As long as people remain under a relative "veil of ignorance," in the sense that they do not yet know how they will personally be affected, they may find it easier to agree that progressive taxes should be used to subsidize low-wage earners.	只要人们还披着相对"无知的面纱"，即当人们还不了解作为个人会受到怎样的影响，他们就可能更易于赞同采用累进税制以补贴低收入者。


When greater income inequality is a fait accompli, principled discussion may give way to naked class struggle between the new super-rich and those who have only their misery to lose.	一旦更大的收入不平等成为现实，原则性的讨论可能就要让位于新兴的富豪和困苦的穷人之间赤裸裸的阶级斗争。


The Maghreb’s Modern Islamists	北非的现代化伊斯兰主义者


FEZ – Just over a year ago, the Arab Spring sparked dramatic change throughout the Arab world.	发自摩洛哥非斯市——仅仅一年之前，“阿拉伯之春”在阿拉伯世界点燃了一场剧烈变革的野火。


Popular movements have brought a range of avowedly Islamist political parties to power, replacing the largely secular former regimes.	这场人民运动一方面将世俗政权打倒在地，一方面则把一系列公开鼓吹伊斯兰主义的政党送上了权力宝座。


What that will mean for these countries, and for the region, is one of today’s central geopolitical questions.	而这随之引出了一个当今世界的核心地缘政治问题：对那些国家乃至整个地区来说，这究竟意味着什么？


In North Africa, two Islamist parties have come fully to power via democratic elections: al-Nahda (Renaissance) in Tunisia, where the Arab Spring began, and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) in Morocco, both of which now lead new coalition governments.	在北非，已经有两个伊斯兰政党通过民主选举执掌了大权：一个是在“阿拉伯之春”策源地突尼斯的复兴党（al-Nahda），另一个是摩洛哥的发展党，两党都在本国新成立的联合政府中占主导地位。


Whereas a popular revolution produced regime change in Tunisia, Morocco underwent a peaceful transformation that left the monarchy in place.	相对于人民革命推动下的突尼斯政权更替，摩洛哥实现了一个保留皇室的和平转型。


Last July, Moroccans voted overwhelmingly to approve a new constitution that shifts executive power from the king to the prime minister, who will now be fully responsible for the cabinet, the civil service, and the implementation of government policies.	去年7月，摩洛哥人以压倒性的优势通过了一个新宪法，将权力从国王身上转移到首相手中，由后者全面负责内阁，公共服务以及政府政策的推行。


The king retains some prerogatives, such as the authority to select the prime minister (from the parliament’s majority party) and the head of the army.	而国王则保留了某些特权，比如有权（从议会多数党内部）选定总理以及三军总司令。


Furthermore, like heads of state in other parliamentary systems, he has the right to appoint the government ministers and ambassadors, dissolve the parliament, and dismiss the cabinet.	此外跟其他议会系统中的国家元首一样，他有权任命政府部长和大使或者解散议会和内阁。


While the PJD’s success was based on institution-building within a constitutional monarchy, al-Nahda has revolutionized the Tunisian system.	当摩洛哥发展党的成功奠基在一个君主立宪的制度建构之上时，突尼斯复兴党则彻底颠覆了本国的整个制度。


But both parties won after running on a moderate platform of constitutionalism, separation of powers, civil liberties, and women’s rights.	但两党都是在一个包含立宪主义，权力分立，公民自由以及维护妇女权益的温和主义平台之上获得成功的。


This new political reality in the Maghreb will bring Europe – particularly France, the region’s old colonial master – face-to-face with Islamist governments determined to promote a new type of relationship.	而出现在北非地区的这一新政治现实也将使欧洲——尤其是法国这个旧殖民地宗主国——与那些决心建立一种新型关系的伊斯兰主义政府面对面。


But these governments have much work to do at home first.	但这些政府首先还有许多国内事务亟待处理。


Currently, the Maghreb countries suffer from soaring unemployment, poverty, and high prices for basic commodities. In response, both al-Nahda and the PJD are emphasizing job creation, free trade, foreign investment, and a crackdown on the corruption that has plagued their countries’ economies.	目前来说，北非各国政府都被失业率飙升，贫穷和基础物价高涨所困扰，无论是复兴党还是发展党都将重心放在创造新职位、自由贸易，吸引外资以及打击渗入本国经济肌体的贪腐问题之上。


These governments’ first major test of economic stewardship will be how they treat the tourism industry.	因此对这些政府管理能力的第一项重大测试就是如何处理当地的旅游经济问题。


Although Western tourism is a critically important source of employment and foreign currency in both countries, some Muslims have criticized the industry for promoting alcohol and other relaxed social conventions that threaten Islamic values.	虽然西方游客一直都是两国至关重要的就业和外汇来源，但某些穆斯林民众也该行业颇有怨言，认为它冲击了包括禁酒以及其他社会习俗在内的伊斯兰价值观。


So far, both al-Nahda and the PJD have taken a pragmatic stance.	直到目前为止，两党都采取了一种实用主义的态度。


They recognize that, while their supporters may be devout Muslims, they also need to earn a living; empty hotels and beaches would be economically disastrous.	他们意识到虽然自己的支持者是虔诚的穆斯林，但自己也得吃饭； 空荡荡的酒店和沙滩就是一场经济灾难。


Thus, tourism professionals in both countries have received strong government assurances that business will continue as usual.	于是两国的旅游业者都得到了政府的坚定承诺：一切照老样子办。


Some European analysts predict that, over the longer term, greater stability will follow the political changes in the Maghreb, with perhaps more than a million unemployed Moroccan and Tunisian immigrants returning home if their countries’ economies improve.	因此一些欧洲分析家则认为长远看来北非地区的政治变革将带来更大程度的稳定，如果摩洛哥和突尼斯两国经济都能有所改善的话，将吸引约100万旅居海外的无业移民回国发展。


That remains very much an open question.	但这个问题上依然存在着无限可能性。


Islamist parties will now have enormous influence on economic policy, after decades of official separation of mosque and state.	在经历了数十年的政教分离之后，伊斯兰政党终于对经济政策拥有了极大的发言权。


Islamic banking, for example, may soon be introduced, though some local and foreign investors argue that sharia regulations could drive away much-needed foreign investment.	虽然某些国内外投资者认为伊斯兰教法管制将吓跑急需的外国投资，但诸如伊斯兰银行等制度将很快被引入。


There are also concerns about inexperienced Islamist officials’ ability to run finance ministries.	也有人担心那些缺乏经验的伊斯兰官员可能无法让政府经济部门顺利运作起来。


But the region’s Islamist parties appear to be conscious of these risks, and determined to mitigate them.	但该地区的伊斯兰政党似乎早已意识到了这些风险并展开应对。


They know that they need economic growth to curb unemployment and pay for social services, so they are working to bolster the private sector.	他们知道自己需要经济增长来遏制失业并支付公共服务支出，因此着手鼓励私营经济的发展。


In many cases, they are even advocating the kind of free-market policies that their secular predecessors favored.	在许多情况下他们甚至鼓吹某些自由市场政策——即便这是那些被推翻的世俗政权所喜爱的。


Those policies should include trade liberalization.	而这些政策也应当包括贸易自由化措施在内。


Until now, less than 2% of the Maghreb countries’ foreign trade has remained within the region.	但迄今为止，只有不到2%的北非国家外贸额来自区域内部。


If the region’s new leaders can integrate their economies, a market of more than 75 million consumers would attract more foreign investment and trade with the rest of the world.	如果这些国家的新领导人能将各自的经济整合在一起，一个拥有超过7500万消费者的市场将最终确立并吸引更多外商投资以及对外贸易。


Before an economically unified Maghreb can be realized, however, inter-state conflicts such as the Algerian-Moroccan dispute over the “Western” Sahara must be resolved.	但在这个经济上统一的北非诞生之前，类似阿尔及利亚与摩洛哥对撒哈拉“西部地区”领土争议这样的国家间冲突必须得到解决。


Otherwise, it will be difficult even to conceive a common future – without which the economic grievances that fueled the Maghreb’s revolutions are likely to continue.	不然的话各国将难以构思出一个共同的未来——而没有了这些，当年催生了北非革命之火的经济苦难必将卷土重来。


Much like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, al-Nahda and the PJD will have to marginalize Islamic extremists in their movements, such as the Salafis, and adopt a pragmatic approach.	跟埃及的穆斯林兄弟会非常相似，突尼斯复兴党和摩洛哥发展党必须把组织内的伊斯兰极端势力逐渐边缘化。


To succeed economically, they will need Western support – and the West will not be eager to fund radical Islamist governments.	如果要在经济上取得成功的话，他们还需要西方的支持——而西方显然不会资助那些伊斯兰极端主义政府。


As they negotiate the realities of modern economic life, the Maghreb’s Islamist ruling parties are likely to lose some supporters.	随着他们逐渐实现一个现代化的经济生活，北非的伊斯兰政党很可能会失去一些支持者。


But, unless they are willing to break with the past, they will not succeed in the present.	但这些党派也必须意识到：如果不能与过去决裂，也就无法取得当下的成功。


Autumn’s Known Unknowns	秋天的已知的未知


NEW YORK – During the height of the Iraq war, then-US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of “known unknowns” – foreseeable risks whose realization is uncertain.	纽约—在伊拉克战争最高峰，时任美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德提出了“已知的未知”——可预见的、如何成为现实还不确定的风险。


Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty.	如今，全球经济面临着诸多已知的未知，其中大多数来自政策不确定性。


In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this autumn.	在美国，政策不确定性的三大源泉将在今年秋天汇合。


For starters, it remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve will begin to “taper” its open-ended quantitative easing (QE) in September or later, how fast it will reduce its purchases of long-term assets, and when and how fast it will start to raise interest rates from their current zero level.	首先，美联储是否会在9月或更晚“逐渐退出”其无期限量化宽松（QE）、其减少长期资产购买量的节奏有多快以及它何时、以多快节奏开始将利率从近零水平提高仍不清楚。


There is also the question of who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman.	另一个问题是谁会接任伯南克的美联储主席一职。


Finally, yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.	最后，关于美国债务上限的新一轮党派之争可能会提高政府破产风险，如果共和党控制的众议院和总统奥巴马及其民主党盟友无法就预算达成一致的话。


The first two sources of uncertainty have already affected markets.	前两个不确定性源泉已经开始影响市场。 美国长期利率的上升——从5月低点1.


The rise in US long-term interest rates – from a low of 1.6% in May to recent peaks above 2.9% – has been driven by market fears that the Fed will taper QE too soon and too fast, and by the uncertainty surrounding Bernanke’s successor.	6%升至目前高点2. 9%以上——是因为市场担心美联储会过早、过急的逐渐退出QE以及围绕伯南克继任者的不确定性。


So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight.	目前，投资者对预算斗争所隐含的风险并不担心。


They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown.	他们认为——与过去一样——财政摊牌将会在最后一刻达成妥协，避免违约和政府关门。


But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become.	但投资者似乎低估了美国国家政治功能紊乱的程度。


With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out.	大部分共和党对政府支出怀有如圣战主义者一般的敌意，因此财政爆炸在今秋并非不可能发生之事。


Uncertainties abound in other advanced economies as well.	其他发达国家也存在大量不确定性。


Germany’s general election appears likely to produce a repeat of the current government coalition of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and the Free Democrats, with opinion polls suggesting that a grand coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats is less likely.	德国大选可能再次选出总理默克尔的基督教民主联盟（CDU）和自由民主党的执政联盟，民调显示CDU和社会民主党组成大联盟的可能性较低。


In the former case, current German policies toward the eurozone crisis will not change, despite austerity fatigue in the eurozone’s periphery and bailout fatigue in its core.	如果出现前者，德国对欧元区危机的当前政策就不会改变，尽管欧元区外围国对紧缩已经疲劳，而核心国对援助也已经疲劳。


Political risks in the eurozone’s periphery include the collapse of Italy’s government and a fresh election as a result of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s criminal conviction.	欧元区外围国的政治风险包括意大利前总理贝卢斯科尼被定罪导致政府倒闭和新一轮选举。


Greece’s ruling coalition could collapse as well, and political tensions may rise even higher in Spain and Portugal.	希腊执政联盟也可能崩溃，而西班牙和葡萄牙的政治紧张局面可能会更加严峻。


On monetary policy, the European Central Bank’s forward guidance – the commitment to keep interest rates at a low level for a long time – is too little too late and has not prevented a rise in short- and long-term borrowing costs, which could stifle the eurozone’s already-anemic economic recovery.	在货币政策方面，欧洲央行的前瞻性指引——在长期内保持低利率水平的承诺——来得太晚，力度也太小，没能阻止短期和长期借贷成本升高，而这可能扼杀原本就十分孱弱的欧元区经济复苏。


Whether the ECB will ease policy more aggressively is also uncertain.	欧洲央行是否会更积极地放松政策也是个不确定因素。


Outside of the eurozone, the strength of the United Kingdom’s recovery and the Bank of England’s soft forward guidance have led to similar “unwarranted” increases in interest rates, which the BoE, like the ECB, seems unable to prevent in the absence of more muscular action.	在欧元区之外，英国复苏的强度和英格兰银行软弱无力的前瞻性指引也导致了类似的“不一定”的利率上升，而英格兰银行与欧洲央行一样，因为无法采取更有力的动作而无力阻止这一幕发生。


In Japan, the policy uncertainty concerns whether the third arrow of Abenomics – structural reforms and trade liberalization to boost potential growth – will be implemented, and whether the expected rise in the consumption tax in 2014 will choke economic recovery.	在日本，政策不确定性在于安倍经济学的第三支箭——结构性改革和贸易自由化以刺激潜在增长——是否能被实施，以及2014年提高消费税的预期是否会阻碍经济复苏。


In China, November’s Third Plenum of the Communist Party Central Committee will show whether China is serious about reforms aimed at shifting from investment-led to consumption-led growth.	在中国，11月的中共十八大三中全会将表明中国是否会认真实施旨在将经济从投资拉动转向消费拉动增长的改革。


Meanwhile, China’s slowdown has contributed to the end of the commodity super-cycle, which, together with the sharp rise in long-term interest rates (owing to the scare of an early Fed exit from QE), has led to economic and financial stresses in many emerging-market economies.	与此同时，中国的放缓导致了商品超级周期的结束，而后者与长期利率飙升（拜美联储提早退出QE的恐慌所赐）一起，给许多新兴市场经济体带来了巨大的经济和金融压力。


These economies – the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and others – were overhyped for too long.	这些经济体——金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）及其他——在太长的时间里发展过度。


Favorable external conditions – the effect of China’s strong growth on higher commodity prices and easy money from yield-hungry advanced-economy investors – led to a partly artificial boom.	有利的外部环境——中国的强劲增长推高商品价格，以及来自渴望收益率的发达经济体投资者的宽松资金——导致了一定程度上人为的繁荣。


Now that the party is over, the hangover is setting in.	如今，派对已经结束，宿醉即将开始。


This is especially true in India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and Indonesia, all of which suffer from multiple macroeconomic and policy weaknesses – large current-account deficits, wide fiscal deficits, slowing growth, and above-target inflation – as well as growing social protest and political uncertainty ahead of elections in the next 12-18 months.	印度、巴西、土耳其、南非和印尼尤其如此，它们都经受着多重宏观和政策疲软——巨额经常项目赤字、大量财政赤字、增长放缓、通胀超标——而在大选之前的未来12—18个月中，它们还需要面对日渐升级的社会动荡和政治不确定性。


There are no easy choices: defending the currency by hiking interest rates would kill growth and harm banks and corporate firms; loosening monetary policy to boost growth might push their currencies into free-fall, causing a spike in inflation and jeopardizing their ability to attract capital to finance their external deficits.	没有容易的选择：通过提高利率捍卫货币会扼杀增长、伤害银行和公司； 放松货币政策以刺激增长可能导致货币暴跌，造成通胀飙升、破坏吸引资本融资外部债务的能力。


There are two major geopolitical uncertainties as well.	还有两大地缘政治风险。


First, will the looming military strikes by the US and its allies against Syria be limited in scope and time, or will they trigger a wider military confrontation?	首先，美国及其盟友对叙利亚的军事打击在规模和时间上是否会有限度，还是会引发更广的军事冲突？


The last thing that a fragile global economy needs now is another round of peak oil prices.	目前，让全球经济陷入万劫不复的最后一击是石油价格再创新高。


Second, a year ago the US convinced Israel to give its non-military approach to Iran’s nuclear-weapons ambitions time to bear fruit.	其次，一年前，美国说服以色列不要对伊朗核武器雄心采取军事行动，给它们时间以观后效。


But, after a year of economic sanctions and negotiations with no result, Israel’s patience on what it regards as an existential issue is wearing thin.	但是，在一年的经济制裁和谈判没有收到任何效果后，以色列对其所认为的生存问题的耐心正在日渐枯竭。


Even short of an actual military conflict – which could double oil prices overnight – the resumption of saber-rattling by Israel and the war of words between the two sides could lead to a sharp rise in energy costs.	即使没有实际军事冲突——可能导致油价瞬间翻番——以色列重拾动武威胁和双方之间的战争言论也将让能源价格出现飙升。


The looming known unknowns are plentiful.	摆在面前的已知的未知不胜枚举。


Some outcomes may be more positive, or at least less damaging, than expected.	一些结果可能比预期的更积极，或至少不太消极。


But the realization this autumn of even some of the risks described here could derail the global economy’s still-wobbly recovery.	但在今秋，即使上述风险中只有一部分成为现实，全球经济步履艰难的复苏就可能毁于一旦。


And the meta-risk of policy mistakes and accidents remains very high.	而政策失误和事故的元风险（meta-risk）依然很高。


The Making of a Murder in Pakistan	谋杀巴基斯坦


The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the first Muslim woman to lead a Muslim country, is a serious blow to Pakistan’s prospects for democracy and, indeed, its viability as a state.	贝•布托，第一位领导一个穆斯林国家的女性的遇刺，是对巴基斯坦的民主前景和国家前途的一次沉重打击。


As chaos and confusion set in, we should not lose sight of President Pervez Musharraf’s partial responsibility for this turn of events.	在混乱与迷茫的暗流中，我们不应该忽视总统穆沙拉夫对事态的发展所负的部分责任。


At the very least, he cannot be absolved from his government’s failure to provide Bhutto with adequate security.	至少，他在政府未能对布托提供足够安全保护方面难辞其咎。


Instead, Bhutto had to pay with her life for courageously challenging extremists of all stripes – from Al-Qaeda and Taliban to the country’s religious political parties and military hardliners.	而布托却为勇敢挑战各路极端分子（从“基地”组织和塔利班到该国的宗教政治党派和军事强硬派）而付出了生命的代价。


As heir to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the legendary democratic leader who was hanged by General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq’s government in 1979, Benazir emerged as a symbol of resistance at a young age – but languished in jails and exile in the 1980’s.	作为阿里•布托（在1979年被齐亚•哈克将军判处死刑的传奇式民主领袖）的继承人，贝•布托在年轻时代就以抵抗力量象征的姿态出现—但在1980年代却遭受了牢狱与流放之苦。


Z. A. Bhutto’s legacy was empowerment of the impoverished and defense of ordinary people’s rights amid feudalistic politics and military rule.	阿里•布托的遗策是在封建政治和军事统治下赋权给穷苦民众并捍卫普通大众的权利。


Rather than bowing to the military junta, he embraced the gallows.	他没有向军事统治者屈服，而是选择了绞架。


Hours before his hanging, Benazir was allowed to see her father for the last time, writing in her autobiography: “I told him on my oath in his death cell, I would carry on his work.”	在临刑前，贝•布托被允许见父亲最后一面。 她在自传中写道：“我在他的死囚牢房里发誓，我将继续他的事业。


She largely lived up to the promise.	”她在很大程度上实现了自己的诺言。


Her first stint as prime minister (1988-90) was brief and disorganized.	她作为首相的第一个任期(1988-90)是短暂而混乱的。


Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul, the former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, confirmed that he sponsored an alliance of right-wing political parties to stop her from getting a parliamentary majority.	前三军情报局(ISI)首脑Hamid Gul中将承认曾组织过一个右翼党派联盟来阻止她获得议会的多数席位。


Information about Pakistan’s nuclear program and ISI operations in Afghanistan were out of her domain.	关于巴基斯坦核计划和ISI在阿富汗的行动也不在她的掌控中。


Her second term in office (1993-96) was longer and better, but her government again fell early, owing to charges of mismanagement and corruption.	她的第二个任期(1993-96)稍长，局面也更好，但其政府却因为治理不善和腐败的指控而再次夭亡。


In reality, machinations by the intelligence agencies also played a part.	实际上，情报部门的阴谋在其中也插了一脚。


The military had developed an entrenched distrust of her, given her position as a popularly supported pro-Western leader who wanted peace with India.	鉴于她是一位受到民众支持的亲西方领导人，又想和印度修好，所以军方对她的不信任由来已久。


After almost a decade in self-imposed exile, Bhutoo’s return to Pakistan in October gave her a fresh political start.	在近十年的自我流放之后，布托今年十月重回巴基斯坦，给她的政治生涯带来了一个新的起点。


Pakistan had changed, as military dictatorship and religious extremism in the north played havoc with the fabric of society.	由于军事独裁和北部的宗教极端主义在社会上制造混乱，巴基斯坦的形势已发生了变化。


A tentative arrangement with Musharraf, together with Western support – particularly from the United Kingdom and the United States – eased her return, which hundreds of thousands of people welcomed, though terrorists greeted her with a string of suicide bombings.	与穆沙拉夫的试探性安排，加上西方的支持—特别是英国和美国—都使得她能重返祖国。 虽然恐怖分子实施了针对她的一连串自杀式炸弹袭击，但她的回归还是受到了成千上万民众的欢迎。


Bhutto’s contacts with Mushararf’s military government drew criticism, but she remained adamant that a return to democracy was possible only through a transition in which Musharraf would give up his military post, become a civilian head of state, and conduct free and fair elections.	虽然布托与穆沙拉夫军政府的联系招致批评，但她仍坚持只有通过穆沙拉夫放弃军职，成为一名文职国家元首，并实施自由和公正的选举，巴基斯坦才可能重返民主。


To the dismay of some democratic forces, Bhutto stayed the course even after Musharraf imposed emergency rule on November 3 and removed the country’s top judges to ensure his re-election.	让一些民主力量感到失望的是，布托甚至在穆沙拉夫于11月3号宣布实施紧急状态，并罢免了该国的大法官们以确保自己获选连任之后，仍然坚持既定的路线。


Indeed, she even persuaded other important political leaders to participate in the planned January 8 election, which she viewed as an opportunity to challenge religious extremist forces in the public square.	的确，她甚至劝说其他重要的政治领袖参加定于1月8日举行的大选。 她将此视为一次在公共领域挑战宗教极端势力的机会。


She seized that opportunity by bravely traveling throughout the country, despite serious threats to her life, arguing for a democratic and pluralistic Pakistan.	她抓住了这一次机会，不顾严重的死亡威胁，游走于巴基斯坦全国，为一个民主而多元的巴基斯坦呼喊。


One can understand why religious extremists like Al-Qaeda and Taliban would target her, and the government claims that it is impossible to defend against a suicide attack.	我们能够理解为什么“基地”和塔利班这样的宗教极端分子会以她为目标，及巴政府为何声称自杀式袭击防不胜防。


But Bhutto was reportedly killed by a sharp shooter before the terrorist blew himself up.	但据报道说布托是被一个神枪手狙杀，而后该恐怖分子才引爆炸弹自杀。


So, in the eyes of Pakistan’s people, and especially of Bhutto’s supporters, the intelligence services, either alone or in collaboration with extremists, finally decided to eliminate her.	因此在巴基斯坦民众，特别是布托的支持者眼里，巴情报部门，不论有否与极端分子合谋，最终都决定除掉她。


Whether or not the government was involved, the fact remains that Pakistan has lost a desperately needed leader.	不论巴政府是否参与其中，事实仍然是巴基斯坦已经失去了一位不可多得的领导人。


With Pakistan’s future in the balance, the West’s help and support will be crucial, but that means recognizing that Musharraf is not the only leader who can resolve Pakistan’s myriad problems and manage the war on terror.	为了平衡巴基斯坦的未来，西方的帮助和支持将是至关重要的。 但这就意味着承认穆沙拉夫不是唯一能够解决巴基斯坦众多的问题和管理反恐战争的领导人。


On the contrary, by nurturing the current environment of instability and uncertainty, Musharraf himself must be regarded as one of Pakistan’s biggest problems.	相反，由于不断助长现有的不稳定和不确定性环境，穆沙拉夫本人就应当被看作是巴基斯坦最大的问题之一。


The Making of Great Communicators	伟大沟通者的诞生


CAMBRIDGE – Perhaps the most impressive current example of leadership based on the ability to communicate is Barack Obama, who has given three times as many interviews as George W. Bush and held four times as many prime press conferences as Bill Clinton at this stage in their presidencies.	坎布里奇——巴拉克·奥巴马或许是当前以沟通能力著称的最知名领袖的例证，他在总统任期相同阶段的受访次数为乔治·W·布什的三倍，召开重要新闻发布会的次数则是比尔·克林顿的四倍之多。


Some critics are now wondering if all this talking is too much of a good thing.	以至于有些评论家无法确定这样的讲话力度是不是件好事情。


All inspirational leaders communicate effectively.	所有鼓舞人心的领袖都能够有效沟通。


Winston Churchill often attributed his success to his mastery of the English sentence.	温斯顿·丘吉尔经常把自己的成功归功于掌握英文语言艺术。


The ancient Greeks had schools of rhetoric to hone their skills for the assembly.	而古代希腊人专门开设辩论学校，磨练集会演讲能力。


Cicero made his mark in the Roman Senate after studying oratory.	西塞罗则在学习演讲课程后，在罗马元老院名噪一时。


Good rhetorical skills help to generate soft power.	良好的修辞能力能够增强软实力。


Woodrow Wilson was not a gifted student as a child, but he taught himself oratory because he regarded it as essential for leadership.	伍德罗·威尔逊在孩提时期并不是个有天分的学生，但他刻苦自学了演讲方法，因为他认为这是一种必须的领导能力。


Martin Luther King, Jr. benefited from growing up in an African-American church tradition rich in the rhythms of the spoken word.	小马丁·路德·金在非洲裔美国教堂中长大，那里注重口头表达节奏的传统让他受益终生。


Clinton was able to combine a sense of theater with narrative stories and an overall ability to convey an argument.	克林顿则能够实现戏剧效果和叙事故事以及表达观点总体能力的有机的结合。


According to his staff, he developed and improved this gradually over his career.	按照他手下工作人员的说法，这种能力是他在政治生涯中逐渐形成并完善的。


Oratory and inspirational rhetoric, however, are not the only forms of communication with which leaders frame issues and create meaning for their followers.	但口才和鼓舞人心的词句并不是领袖们赖以组织和为追随者创造价值的唯一沟通方法。


Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, was hardly an inspirational speaker, but markets and politicians hung on his every word, and he tailored the nuances of his language to reinforce the direction in which he wanted to lead monetary policy.	前美联储主席阿兰·格林斯潘就很难称得上是一位鼓舞人心的演说家，可市场和政治家们却热切关注他所说的每一个字，而他也刻意在语言中体现出细微差别，并以此来凸显符合他希望的货币政策发展方向。


Unfortunately, as the financial crisis of 2008 demonstrated, it would have been better if Congressional committees had pressed him to communicate more clearly.	但遗憾的是，2008年金融危机表明，如果当时国会委员会迫使他明确表达自己的想法，也许就不会出现现在这样的糟糕情况。


Non-verbal signals are also an important component of human communications.	人类交流中的另外一种重要元素是非语言信号。


Symbols and examples can be very effective.	象征和实例可能非常有效。


Some inspirational leaders are not great orators – witness Mahatma Gandhi.	有些鼓舞人心的领袖并不是伟大的演说家，比如圣雄甘地就是这样。


But the symbolism of Gandhi’s simple dress and lifestyle spoke louder than words.	但甘地简单装束和生活方式的象征意义远比语言更为响亮。


If one compares those images with pictures of the young insecure Gandhi dressed as a proper British lawyer, one can see how carefully he understood symbolic communication.	如果对比甘地年轻时一副浮躁体面的英国律师装扮，人们就能了解他对象征性沟通的理解是多么深入。


He ensured that actions such as the famous 1930 salt march to the sea maintained a slow pace that allowed the drama and tension to build.	他刻意安排像1930年海边食盐长征这样的著名行动以缓慢的速度向前行进，这样的速度产生了紧张和戏剧效果。


The march was designed for communication, not the ostensible reason of resisting the colonial government’s prohibition on the fabrication of salt.	这次食盐长征的目的并不是像表面看上去那样是为了抵制殖民政府的制盐禁令，它真正的实际目的在于沟通。


T.E. Lawrence (“Lawrence of Arabia”) also understood how to communicate with symbols.	T·E·劳伦斯（“阿拉伯的劳伦斯”）同样理解如何进行象征性沟通。


When he went to the Paris Peace Conference at World War I’s end, he wore Bedouin robes to dramatize the Arab cause.	他在一战结束参加巴黎和会的时候，特意穿了一件贝都因式的长袍，凭空为阿拉伯事业增添了戏剧化元素。


A year later, at a Cairo conference that negotiated borders in the region, he changed to a British officer’s uniform as he engaged in hard transactional bargaining.	一年后在谈判区域边境问题的开罗会议上，他又在艰苦的事务谈判中换上了英国官员制服。


Or, to take a contemporary example, the British entrepreneur Richard Branson overcame dyslexia and poor academic performance by using events and public stunts to promote his Virgin brands.	或者再举一个现代的例子，英国企业家理查德·布兰森通过借助事件和公众手段宣传自己的维珍品牌，成功地克服了学习成绩差和阅读障碍等缺点。


In addition to communicating with distant audiences, leaders need the ability to communicate one-on-one or in small groups.	除与远距离听众沟通外，领袖们也需要具备一对一或小范围的沟通能力。


In some cases, that close communication is more important than public rhetoric.	在某些情况下，这种亲密沟通甚至比公开演说更为重要。


Organizational skills – the ability to attract and inspire an effective inner circle of followers – can compensate for rhetorical deficiencies, just as effective public rhetoric can partly compensate for low organizational skills.	吸引和激励高效核心集团追随者的组织能力可以弥补演讲口才方面的缺憾，而公众演讲口才同样��可以部分地弥补组织能力方面的不足。


Hitler was skillful at communicating with both distant and inner-circle audiences.	希特勒在与远距离以及核心集团听众沟通时同样显露出高超的技巧。


Stalin relied primarily on the latter.	而斯大林则主要依靠后者。


Harry Truman was a modest orator, but compensated by attracting and ably managing a stellar set of advisers.	哈瑞·杜鲁门是一个平庸的演讲者，但吸引并巧妙地管理众多的顾问在很大程度上弥补了这个不足。


A good narrative is a great source of soft power, and the first rule that fiction writers learn about good narrative is to “show, not tell.”	引人入胜的叙事往往能够带来软实力，而小说作者们学到的首要的叙事原则就是“描绘，而不是讲述。


Franklin Roosevelt used the fictional story of lending a garden hose to a neighbor whose house was on fire to explain his complex lend-lease program to the American people before World War II.	”二战前，富兰克林·罗斯福借助将灌溉橡皮管借给房屋失火的邻居这样一个虚构故事来向美国人解释他复杂的租借法案。


Ronald Reagan was a master of the well selected anecdote.	而罗纳德·里根则是位使用精心挑选的逸闻趣事的大师。


Setting the right example is another crucial form of communication for leaders.	列举恰当的例子是领袖们另外一种重要的沟通方式。


Anticipating a skeptical public reaction when Singapore raised the salaries of government officials in 2007, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would forgo the raise himself.	由于预料到2007年提高政府官员薪金会引发公众质疑，时任新加坡总理李显龙公开宣布他将放弃这次加薪的机会。


In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, some business executives voluntarily reduced their salaries as a means of communicating concern for their employees and public opinion.	不久前金融危机发生之后，有些企业高管为表示对本企业员工和公众舆论的重视，主动降低了自己的薪水。


During the 2008 presidential election campaign, Obama proved to be a talented communicator.	在2008年总统竞选过程中，奥巴马被证明是一位天才的沟通者。


Not only was his rhetorical style effective, but after inflammatory comments by his pastor threatened to derail his campaign, he produced one of the best speeches on race in America since the days of King.	不仅他本人的演讲模式非常有效，而且在他牧师的煽动性言论威胁到他的竞选活动后，他发表了继马丁·路德·金以后美国竞选活动中最出色的演讲。


As president, Obama continues to communicate effectively, but an American president has a problem of dual audiences.	当选总统后，奥巴马继续进行有效的沟通，但美国总统所面临的问题是听众群的不同。


Sometimes rhetoric that fares well at home – such as Bush’s second inaugural address – sounds hypocritical to foreign ears.	有时在美国国内广受欢迎的演讲——比如布什的第二次就职演说——在外国听众听来却充满了虚伪的味道。


In contrast, Obama’s inaugural address was well received both at home and abroad.	相反，无论国内还是海外都非常欢迎奥巴马的就职演说。


In a series of foreign-policy speeches, most notably one delivered in Cairo and addressed to the Muslim world, polls show that Obama has been able to restore some of America’s soft power.	在以开罗对穆斯林世界演讲为代表的一系列外交政策演讲中，民意测验显示奥巴马已经成功恢复了美国的一部分软实力。


So far, so good, but effective leadership is also communicated by actions and policies.	到目前为止情况还不醋。 但有效的领导还需要用行动和政策来表达。


At this stage, it is too early to determine whether Obama’s policies will reinforce or undercut the effects of his words.	在目前阶段，确定奥巴马政策将巩固还是破坏他的语言效果还为时尚早。


As we await the results, it helps to remember the complexity of the relation between effective leadership and communications.	在我们静候结果的时候，回想一下高效领导和交流之间关系的复杂性没有坏处。


The Making of Sputnik	人造卫星的始末


MOSCOW -- On October 4, 1957, my father, Nikita Khrushchev, awaited a telephone call.	莫斯科--1957年10月4日，我的父亲赫鲁晓夫在等候一个电话。


Chief Designer Sergei Korolev was expected to call from the Tyuratam launch site (later renamed Baikonur Cosmodrome) in Kazakhstan to report on the launch of the world’s first man-made satellite.	总设计师科罗廖夫应当从位于哈萨克斯坦的丘拉塔姆发射场(后来更名为拜科努尔发射基地)打电话汇报世界上第一个人造地球卫星的发射情况。


Earlier that day, my father was in Kyiv, Ukraine, on military business.	当天早些时候，我的父亲在乌克兰基辅参加军事活动。


He attended a demonstration of tanks crossing the Dnieper River, then discussed with Soviet generals the fate of Defense Minister Marshal Georgy Zhukov.	他视察了穿越第聂伯河的坦克列队，然后与苏联将军们讨论了国防部长朱可夫元帅的命运。


(Zhukov was suspected of plotting to seize power, and, before forcing a decorated World War II general to resign, my father and his colleagues enlisted the support of other high-ranking generals, who all agreed with Khrushchev’s plan.)	(朱可夫被怀疑策划夺权，而且我父亲和他的同事们在迫使战功卓著的二战元帅辞职之前，获得了其他高级将领的支持，他们都同意赫鲁晓夫的计划。 )


That evening, my father dined with the Ukrainian leaders.	那天晚上，我的父亲和乌克兰领导人共进晚餐。


I sat at the end of the table, not paying attention to their conversation.	我坐在桌子末尾，并没有注意他们的交谈。


Everybody was tired, but my father wasn’t in a hurry to sleep.	每个人都有点疲惫，但是我的父亲却并不急于睡觉。


Around midnight, the door opened and the secretary asked my father to take a phone call.	在午夜时分，门开了，秘书请父亲接一个电话。


When Khrushchev came back, he was smiling: Sputnik’s launch was successful.	当赫鲁晓夫回来的时候，他满脸微笑说，人造卫星发射成功了。


Soviet engineers began designing Sputnik in January 1956.	苏联工程师们在1956年1月开始设计人造地球卫星。


The plan was to launch it with the R-7, an intercontinental ballistic missile in development since 1954.	计划是用从1964年开始设计开发的R-7洲际弹道导弹发射卫星。


But the rest of the world paid no attention to the vague pronouncements of a possible launch that had been appearing in the Soviet press; everybody outside the Soviet Union knew the United States would launch the world’s first satellite.	但是，全世界对于苏联报纸上出现的可能进行发射的含糊不清的报导并不予以关注。 苏联以外的所有人都知道美国将会发射第一颗人造地球卫星。


Soviet scientists believed that the Americans would keep their plans secret until after they had succeeded in launching a satellite, so all our efforts were put into beating the Americans to the launch.	苏联科学家相信，美国科学家在成功地发射卫星之前将会对其计划保密，所以我们就竭尽全力领先美国发射。


In August and September, R-7 missiles were successfully launched twice.	在8月和9月，R-7导弹两次成功发射。


Work went on around the clock.	大家都是只争朝夕。


Sputnik’s launch made the front page of Pravda, but just barely.	真理报头版报导了苏联卫星发射，但只是一带而过。


The story occupied the same amount of space as a report on Zhukov’s visit to Yugoslavia, and ran in a less prestigious position.	这一报导和朱可夫访问南斯拉夫的报导篇幅一样长，而且放在一个并不起眼的位置。


There were no banner headlines or enthusiastic comments.	没有头号大标题或者激情评论。


The reason was simple.	原因很简单。


My father and all the Soviet people thought that Sputnik’s success was natural, that, step by step, we were getting ahead of the Americans.	我的父亲以及所有苏联人民都认为，人造卫星的成功是理所当然的，我们逐步走在了美国人的前面。


After all, we – not the Americans – had opened the world’s first nuclear power plant.	毕竟，是我们而不是美国人开启了世界上的第一个核电站。


The Soviet MiG set world records in the 1950’s, and the Soviet Tu-104 was the most efficient airliner of its class.	苏联米格战机在50年代创造世界记录，而苏联的图104飞机是这一机种最为高效的。


So Sputnik did not surprise us.	所以人造卫星并不出乎我们的所料。


Nor did the press report Korolev’s name.	而报纸也没有报导科罗廖夫的名字。


The KGB knew that there was really no need to keep his name secret, but, as KGB chief Ivan Serov told me, the enemy’s resources were limited, so let them waste their efforts trying to uncover “non-secret” secrets.	克格勃知道确实没有必要为名字保密，但是，正如克格勃首脑谢罗夫所告诉我的，敌人的资源有限，所以就让他们浪费精力去发现“非机密”的秘密吧。


But the world was desperate to learn his identity.	但是全世界都迫不及待地想要知道他的身份。


The Nobel Prize committee decided to give an award to Sputnik’s “chief designer,” but first it needed the person’s name.	诺贝尔委员会决定给人造卫星的“总设计师”颁奖，但是首先它要知道这个人的名字。


The committee requested it from the Soviet government.	委员会向苏联政府提出了要求。


My father weighed his response carefully.	我的父亲认真权衡他的回应。


The matter was complicated, and his concern wasn’t confidentiality.	事情很复杂，而他担忧的并非是保密问题。


The Council of Chief Designers was in charge of all space projects.	总设计师委员会负责所有的空间项目。


Korolev was the head of the council, but the other Chief Designers – more than a dozen – considered themselves no less significant.	科罗廖夫是委员会主任，但是其他十几个总设计师们认为他们也毫不逊色。


My father understood that the Chief Designers were ambitious and jealous people.	我的父亲理解这些总设计师雄心勃勃，而且有嫉妒心理。


If the Nobel committee were to give the award only to Korolev, my father thought, the members would fly into a rage.	我父亲认为，如果诺贝尔委员会把奖励只给了科罗廖夫，那么，那些成员就会大怒。


They would refuse to work with Korolev.	他们就会拒绝与科罗廖夫合作。


A well-organized team would collapse like a house of cards, and the hopes for future space research and missile design would be dashed, threatening the country’s security.	一个组织良好的团队就会像一座纸牌搭的房子那样倒塌，而且，未来空间研究和导弹设计的希望就会破灭，从而威胁国家安全。


As my father saw it, you could order scientists and engineers to work together, but you couldn't force them to create something.	正如我的父亲理解的那样，你可以命令科学家和工程师们合作，但是你却无法强迫他们创造出什么东西。


In the end, my father told the Nobel committee that all of the Soviet people had distinguished themselves in the work on Sputnik, and that they all deserved the award.	最后，我父亲告诉诺贝尔委员会说，在人造卫星的工作上，全体苏联人民都功勋卓著，他们全体都应当获得奖励。


Korolev was offended but kept silent.	科罗廖夫大为不快，但是却被保持沉默。


The Nobel Prize went to somebody else.	诺贝尔奖被授予了其他人。


But, despite the pains my father had taken, the other designers expressed growing discontent about Korolev getting all the publicity, even if anonymously.	但是，尽管我父亲竭力让其他人满意，但是其他设计师们对于科罗廖夫独揽风采越发不满，即使不提及名字也是如此。


In their “secret” world, it wasn’t any secret who was behind the title “Chief Designer.”	在他们的“秘密”世界里，谁拥有“总设计师”的头衔是一目了然的。


The first to revolt was engine designer Valentin Glushko, whose RD-170 liquid-propellant engine is used on Russian and some American rockets.	第一个抗议的是引擎设计师格鲁什科，他设计的RD-170固体推进引擎用于某些俄国和美国火箭之上。


During one council meeting, Glushko said, “My engines could send into space any piece of metal.”	在一次委员会会议上，格鲁什科说道：“我的引擎可以把任何金属块送入太空。


Korolev was offended; his rocket wasn’t just a piece of metal, and, after his success with Sputnik, he no longer considered Glushko his equal.	”科罗廖夫大为不乐。 他的火箭并不是什么金属块，而且，在人造地球卫星成功之后，他不再认为格鲁什科可以和自己相提并论了。


The dispute was hushed up, but the resentment lingered.	争议被制止，但是仇视继续下去。


Soon, Glushko offered his services to other Soviet rocket designers, Mikhail Yangel and Vladimir Chelomei – Korolev's rivals.	马上，格鲁什科向其他苏联火箭设计师、也是科罗廖夫的对手杨格尔和切罗梅伊提供服务。


Even my father couldn’t make peace between them.	即使是我��父亲也无法让二人和好。


Technically, Glushko, by government order, continued to design engines for Korolev, but the work wasn’t good.	从技术上讲，格鲁什科根据政府的命令继续为科罗廖夫设计引擎，但是工作质量不高。


So, despite Sputnik’s initial triumph, a decade later the Soviets lost the race to the moon to the Americans.	所以，尽管人造卫星最初取得成功，十年以后，在登月上苏联输给了美国。


The Malaysian Miracle	马来西亚奇迹


August 31 marked the 50th anniversary of Malaysia’s Merdeka: independence after more than 400 years of colonialism.	8月31日是马来西亚的第五十个独立日：在被殖民统治400年以后获得独立。


Malaysia’s peaceful, non-violent struggle may not have received the attention that Mahatma Gandhi’s did in India, but what Malaysia has accomplished since then is impressive – and has much to teach the world, both about economics, and about how to construct a vibrant multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-cultural society.	马来西亚和平、非暴力的斗争可能没有像甘地在印度那样为世界瞩目，但马来西亚自那时开始所取得的成就却令人赞叹—并能够在经济学及如何建设一个充满活力的多种族、多民族、多文化的社会方面为世界提供有益的经验。


The numbers themselves say a lot.	数字本身就很具有说服力的。


At independence, Malaysia was one of the poorest countries in the world.	独立之初，马来西亚是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。


Though reliable data are hard to come by, its GDP (in purchasing power parity terms) was comparable to that of Haiti, Honduras, and Egypt, and some 5% below that of Ghana.	虽然难以获得可靠的数据，但其当时的GDP（按购买力平价计算）与海地、洪都拉斯和埃及相当，比加纳低5%。


Today, Malaysia’s income is 7.8 times that of Ghana, more than five times that of Honduras, and more than 2.5 times that of Egypt.	而现在，马来西亚的国民收入是加纳的7. 8倍，洪都拉斯的5倍多，埃及的2.


In the global growth league tables, Malaysia is in the top tier, along with China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand.	5倍多。 在全球经济增长排名表上，马来西亚与中国大陆、台湾、南韩和泰国同属于第一集团。


Moreover, the benefits of the growth have been shared.	另外，经济成长的利益也被分享。


Hard-core poverty is set to be eliminated by 2010, with the overall poverty rate falling to 2.8%.	该国的目标是在2010年前消除绝对贫困，使总贫困人口比率下降到2. 8%。


Malaysia has succeeded in markedly reducing the income divides that separated various ethnic groups, not by bringing the top down, but by bringing the bottom up.	马来西亚在减小不同族群之间的收入差距方面也成效卓越。 其做法不是削减高收入族群而是为低收入族群增收。


Part of the country’s success in reducing poverty reflects strong job creation.	该国减少贫困的成功在一定程度上要归功于其强有力地创造就业机会。


While unemployment is a problem in most of the world, Malaysia has been importing labor.	虽然失业问题在世界上大多数国家都存在，但马来西亚却一直在引进劳工。


In the 50 years since independence, 7.24 million jobs have been created, an increase of 261%, which would be equivalent to the creation of 105 million jobs in the United States.	自独立以来的50年里，有724万个工作被创造出来，增长率为261%，约等于在美国创造了1. 05亿份工作。


There were many reasons not to have expected Malaysia to be a success.	有许多原因让我们预期不到马来西亚的成功。


Just as Malaysia was gaining its independence, the Nobel Prize winning economist Gunnar Myrdal wrote an influential book called Asian Drama , in which he predicted a bleak future for the region.	就在马来西亚争取独立的过程中，获得诺贝尔奖的经济学家Gunnar Myrdal写了一本颇具影响力的书《亚洲戏剧》，书中对该地区的未来作了黯淡的预期。


Malaysia is rich in natural resources.	马来西亚有着丰富的自然资源。


But, with few exceptions, such countries are afflicted with the so-called “natural resource curse”: countries with an abundance of resources not only do not do as well as expected, but actually do worse than countries without such benefits.	但这样的国家几乎无一例外地为“自然资源的诅咒”所困：自然资源丰富的国家不仅发展没有预期的好，而且往往在现实中比没有这些资源优势的国家发展得差。


While natural resource wealth should make it easier to create a more equalitarian society, countries with more resources, on average, are marked by greater inequality.	虽然自然资源的富足应该使创造一个平等的社会更容易，但从总体上看，资源更为丰富的国家的社会不平等现象反而更为突出。


Moreover, Malaysia’s multiracial, multi-cultural society made it more vulnerable to civil strife, which has occurred in many other resource-rich countries, as one group tried to seize the wealth for itself.	此外，马来西亚多种族、多文化的社会使其更容易发生内部冲突。 这样的冲突在很多资源丰富的国家都发生过，特别是当某个集团试图为自己攫取资源财富的时候。


In many cases, minorities work hard to garner the fruits of this wealth for themselves, at the expense of the majority – Bolivia, one of the many rich countries with poor people, comes to mind.	在许多情况下，少数人以牺牲多数人的利益为代价，竭力为自己采集这种财富的成果—玻利维亚，这个贫困人口众多的富国之一就是我首先想到的例子。


At independence, Malaysia also faced a Communist insurgency.	独立之初，马来西亚还面临着共产主义者的叛乱。


The “hearts and minds” of those in the countryside had to be won, and that meant bringing economic benefits and minimizing “collateral” damage to innocent civilians – an important lesson for the Bush administration in Iraq, if it would only listen to someone outside its closed circle.	必须在广大农村赢得民心，就意味着带来经济收益和尽量减小对无辜百姓的“间接”伤害—这是给身陷伊拉克的布什政府上的重要一课，如果它还听得进小圈子以外的忠告。


And Malaysia had a third strike against it: for all the talk of the “white man’s burden,” the European powers did little to improve living standards in the countries they ruled.	对此马来西亚还有第三种攻势：尽管“白人的责任”已是老生常谈，但欧洲列强在提高其统治国的生活标准方面几乎无所建树。


The dramatic decline in India’s share of global GDP under Britain’s rule, as Britain passed trade laws designed to benefit its textile producers at the expense of those in its colony, is the most visible example.	最明显的例子就是当英国通过了旨在牺牲殖民地的利益来使其纺织品生产商获利的贸易法之后，在其统治之下的印度的GDP占全球的份额急剧下降。


The colonial powers’ divide-and-rule tactics enabled small populations in Europe to rule large numbers outside of Europe, pillaging natural resources while investing little in the physical, human capital, and social capital necessary for an economically successful, democratic self-governing society.	殖民主义国家分割而治的策略使得欧洲的少数人口能够统治欧洲以外的大量人口，掠夺自然资源，而在建立经济成功、民主自治的社会所必需的物质、人力和社会资本方面却投入甚少。


It has taken many of the former colonies decades to overcome this legacy.	许多前殖民地花了数十年的时间才克服了这个后遗症。


How, then, does an economist account for Malaysia’s success?	那么，经济学家们又应该如何解释马来西亚的成功呢？


Economically, Malaysia learned from its neighbors.	在经济方面，马来西亚向其邻国学习。


Too many of the ex-colonies, rejecting their colonial heritage, turned to Russia and communism.	许多前殖民地为了摆脱殖民后遗症，向俄国和共产主义寻求���助。


Malaysia wisely took an alternative course, looking instead to the highly successful countries of East Asia.	而马来西亚则明智地选择了另一条道路，向成功的东亚国家学习。


It invested in education and technology, pushed a high savings rate, enacted a strong and effective affirmative action program, and adopted sound macroeconomic policies.	它投资教育和技术、推动高储蓄率、实施了强健高效的行动计划并采取了健康的宏观经济政策。


Malaysia also recognized that success required an active role for government.	马来西亚还意识到成功需要政府发挥积极的作用。


It eschewed ideology, following or rejecting outsiders’ advice on a pragmatic basis.	它回避意识形态，在实用主义的立场上采纳或拒绝外来的建议。


Most tellingly, during the financial crisis of 1997, it did not adopt IMF policies – and as a result had the shortest and shallowest downturn of any of the afflicted countries.	最具说服力的是，在1997年的金融危机期间，它没有采纳国际货币基金组织的政策—其结果是它所遭受的经济萧条在所有受打击国家中时间最短，程度也最轻。


When it re-emerged, it was not burdened with debt and bankrupt firms like so many of its neighbors.	走出危机后，它也没有像许多邻国那样背上了债务和破产公司的负担。


This success was, of course, not only a matter of economics: had Malaysia followed the policies recommended by the IMF, it would have torn apart the social fabric created over the preceding four decades.	当然，这种成功不仅是经济学意义上的：如果马来西亚遵循了国际货币基金组织推荐的政策，它就已经撕裂了其在过去四十年来所创建的社会结构。


Malaysia’s success thus should be studied both by those looking for economic prosperity and those seeking to understand how our world can live together, not just with toleration, but also with respect, sharing their common humanity and working together to achieve common goals.	因此马来西亚的成功应该同时通过两个角度来考量：一个是分析经济繁荣的原因，另一个是探寻我们这个世界的和睦相处之道，这不仅仅要通过宽容，还要通过尊重、分享人性的共同点并协力实现共同目标才能实现。


The Many Crises of Health Care	医疗的许多危机


PRINCETON – President Barack Obama’s administration spent much of 2009 preoccupied domestically with the political fight over extending health insurance to the tens of millions of Americans who have none. People living in other industrialized countries find this difficult to understand.	普林斯顿 ——


The difficulties that some Americans have with health-care reform tell us more about American hostility to government than it does about health care in general.	奥巴马总统的行政团队在2009年中把大部分时间都花在了一直困扰美国国内的政治斗争话题, 是否扩大医疗保险至上千万没有医疗保险的美国人. 。


But the debate in the United States highlights an underlying issue that will worry almost every developed country in 2010 and beyond: the struggle to control health-care costs.	其他工业化国家的人觉得这很难理解。 他们拥有卫生保健的权利，即使是保守政府都不企图剥夺这项权利。


Health care now accounts for about one dollar in every six of all US spending – private as well as public – and is on track to double by 2035.	一些美国人对医疗改革的意见告诉我们更多的是，美国人民对政府的敌视, 而不是普通的对医疗保健关心。


That is a greater share than in anywhere else in the world, but rising health-care costs are also a problem in countries that spend far less.	但在美国的辩论突出了一个潜在的问题，一个所有发达国家在2010年及以后都会担心的问题：努力控制医疗保险费用。


There are many places where savings can be made. Encouraging people to exercise, to avoid smoking, to use alcohol only in moderation, and to eat less red meat would help to reduce health-care costs.	现在医疗保险约占美国所有支出的六分之一, 私人医疗保险和公共医疗保险都一样 , 并且将在2035年翻番。


But, given developed countries’ aging populations, the cost of caring for the elderly is bound to rise. So we will have to find other ways to save money.	这个比例比世界任何其他国家都高, 但攀升的医疗费用，同样，对于那些开销并不多的国家，也是问题。


Here it makes sense to start at the end.	其实, 有很多地方可以节省开支。


Treating dying patients who do not want to go on living is a waste, yet only a few countries allow physicians actively to assist a patient who requests aid in dying. In the US, about 27% of Medicare’s budget goes towards care in the last year of life.	鼓励人民锻炼身体，不要吸烟，适度饮酒，并少吃红肉都有助于减少医疗保健费用。


While some of that is spent in the hope that the patient will have many years to live, it is not unusual for hospitals to provide treatments costing tens of thousands of dollars to patients who have no hope of living more than a week or two – and often under sedation or barely conscious.	但是，由于发达国家的人口老龄化，照顾老年人的成本必然上升。 因此，我们不得不寻找其他方式来省钱。


One factor in such decisions is fear on the part of doctors or hospitals that they will be sued by the family for letting their loved one die.	从生命的终点开始考虑就很有意义。 对不想再继续生命的垂危病人进行治疗是一种浪费，但只有少数几个国家允许医生主动实施安乐死。


So, for example, patients close to death are resuscitated, against the doctor’s better judgment, because they have not specifically stated that they do not want to be resuscitated in such circumstances.	在美国，约27%的医疗保险支出用在了生命的最后一年。 虽然有些花费是希望使病人能够多活很多年，但医院为那些已经没有希望活过一两个星期病人, 提供上万美元的治疗, 也是常事, 通常这些病人都是在麻醉和无意识状态下度过的。


The system by which doctors and hospitals are paid is another factor in providing expensive treatment that is of little benefit to the patient. When Intermountain Healthcare, a network of hospitals in Utah and Idaho, improved its treatment for premature babies, it reduced the time they spent in intensive care, thereby slashing the costs of treating them.	做出这种决定的一个原因是, 在医生或医院看来, 害怕被病人的家属起诉, 起诉医生或医院导致了他们亲人的去世。


But, because hospitals are paid a fee for each service they provide, and better care meant that the babies needed fewer services, the change cost the hospital network $329,000 a year.	因此，例如，病人濒临死亡时的苏醒，对医生最有利的判断是，因为他们没有明确地表示，他们不希望在这种情况下苏醒。


Even if such perverse incentives are removed, tougher questions about controlling costs need to be faced. One is the cost of new drugs.	对病人实施昂贵的几乎无效的治疗的另一个原因是，医生和医院的薪水支付系统。


Development costs of $800 million are not unusual for a drug, and we can expect to see more of a new type of drug – biopharmaceuticals made from living cells – which cost even more.	美国山间 (Intermountain Healthcare)，一个在犹他州和爱达荷州医院组成的网络，改善了早产儿的治疗，它缩短了他们在重症监护的时间，从而削减他们的治疗费用。 但是，由于医院每提供一个服务都要付费，并且更周到的看护意味着婴儿需要更少的服务，这项改变每年花费医院网络32万9千美元。


Development costs have to be passed on in drug prices, which may be exceptionally high when a drug benefits only a relatively small number of patients.	即使这种错误的激励措施都被避免，为了控制成本, 还有更棘手的问题需要面对。 其中之一就是新药物的花费。


Gaucher’s disease, for example, is a rare crippling genetic condition that, in its more severe forms, usually killed its victims in childhood. Now those with the disease can lead an almost normal life, thanks to a drug called Cerezyme – but it costs $175,000 a year.	花8亿美元开发一种药物是很平常的，我们可以期待看到耗资更大的一种新型药物——生物制药, 用活体细胞制药。


New medical devices pose equally difficult dilemmas.	开发成本必然会传递到药品价格方面，当一种药物只能够使数量相对较少的病人受益时, 价格会非常之高。


The artificial heart machine, also known as a left ventricular assist device, or LVAD, has been used to keep patients alive until they receive a heart transplant.	例如，高雪氏病(Gaucher’s disease)，是一种罕见的严重遗传病，更严重的情形，通常会使患者在儿童时期夭折。


But there is a shortage of hearts for transplantation, and in the US, LVADs are now being implanted as a long-term treatment for heart failure, just as a dialysis machine replaces a kidney.	由于一种叫做伊米苷酶(Cerezyme )药物, 现在有这种疾病的人几乎可以过正常的生活了，但它的成本是每年175,000美元。


According to Manoj Jain of Emory University, every year 200,000 US patients could be kept alive a little longer with an LVAD, at a cost of $200,000 per patient, or $40 billion.	新的医疗设备，也面临同样的困难抉择。 人工心脏，也称为左心辅助装置(LVAD)一直用来维持患者的生命，直到他们接受心脏移植。


Is that a sensible use of resources in a country in which there are officially 39 million people below the poverty line, which for a family of four is $22,000?	但是供移植的心脏存在短缺，并且在美国，目前植入人工心脏正在作为心脏衰竭的长期治疗方法，就像取代肾脏的透析机。


In countries that provide free health care to their citizens, it is extraordinarily difficult for officials to tell anyone that the government will not pay for the only drug or medical device that can save their life – or their child’s life.	据埃默里大学的马诺基·贾殷说，每年美国有20万病人可以靠人工心脏维持更长的生命，每名患者花费20万美元，共400亿美元。 这是一个合理利用资源的国家吗？


But eventually the point will come when such things must be said.	这个国家官方公布有3千9百万人在贫困线以下，把这些钱分给拥有四口人的家庭， 每家能得到2万两千美元。


No one likes putting a dollar value on a human life, but the fact is that we already do, implicitly, by failing to give enough support to organizations working in developing countries.	为公民提供免费医疗的国家，让官员去告诉人们政府将不会支付他们或是他们孩子的药物和医疗设备的费用， 是十分困难的。


GiveWell.net, which evaluates organizations working to save the lives of the world’s poor, has identified several that can save a life for under $1,000.	但是我们不得不面对现实，到时候不得不这么说。


The World Health Organization estimates that its immunization programs in developing countries cost about $300 per life saved – lives that are saved not for a year, but usually for a lifetime.	没有人喜欢把人的生命用钱来衡量，但事实是，我们已经默默地这样做了，例如， 我们没有对在发展中国家工作的组织给予足够的支持。


Similarly, the World Bank’s Disease Control Priorities Report tells us that a program to treat tuberculosis in the developing world, promoted by the Stop TB Partnership, gives people an extra year of life at a cost ranging from $5 to $50.	GiveWell. net，评估了一些拯救贫穷国家生命的组织后，已经确认， 救活一个生命不到1000美元。


Against that background, spending $200,000 to give a patient in an affluent country a relatively short period of extra life becomes more than financially dubious.	据世界卫生组织估计，发展中国家的免疫接种计划的成本约300元挽救一条生命， 不是拯救他一年， 通常是一辈子。 世界银行的疾病控制报告告诉我们，一个由遏制结核病伙伴组织推动的， 在发展中世界治疗结核病的计划， 5美元至50美元不等的花费能让患者的生命延长一年。


The March to Barbarism	向野蛮沦落的长征


One consequence of the Iraq war is to expose (once again) the false divide between "civilized" and "barbarous" nations.	伊拉克战争的后果之一是（再次）将"文明"和"野蛮"国家间的虚假界线暴露无余。


The United States seems as capable of barbarism as anyone else, as the abuses at the Abu Ghraib prison make clear.	阿布格莱布疟俘事件显示：美国可以像其它国家一样原始野蛮。


Much of the time the barbarism in Iraq goes unrecorded, as when American tanks sweep into Iraqi neighborhoods and kill dozens of innocents in the name of fighting "insurgents."	多数时候，伊境内的野蛮行为没有记载，比如美国坦克潮水般地涌入伊拉克居民区，以镇压"叛乱份子"的名义杀死几十条无辜的生命。


But barbarism is found in many quarters, as the grisly beheading of an American hostage made clear.	令人毛骨悚然的美国人质斩首事件表明：野蛮的影子随处可见。


Every society, under certain conditions, is vulnerable to a descent into barbarism.	在特定条件下，任何社会都可能堕入原始野蛮的深渊。


Many historians have argued that German society under Hitler was somehow uniquely evil.	很多历史学家认为不知为什么，希特勒统治下的德国社会变得特别邪恶。


False.	事实并非如此。


Germany was destabilized by defeat in World War I, a harsh peace in 1919, hyperinflation in the 1920's, and the Great Depression of the 1930's, but was otherwise not uniquely barbarous.	一次大战的战败令德国陷入动荡，1919年的严酷和平、20年代的恶性通胀、30年代的大萧条，否则德国不会如此。


On the contrary, in the early part of the twentieth century, Germany was one of the world's richest countries, with enviably high education levels and scientific prowess.	恰恰相反，20世纪早期，德国是全球最富有的国家之一，有着令人艳羡的教育水平和科技实力。


Hannah Arendt was closer to the mark when she wrote about the "banality of evil," not its uniqueness.	Hannah Arendt谈论"邪恶的普遍性"而非特殊性时，更为接近事实的真相。


There seem to be two common characteristics of the descent into barbarism.	堕入野蛮似乎有两个共同特征。


The first is the relentless human tendency to classify the world as "us" versus "them," and then to reduce "them" to sub-human status.	首先是人们冷酷无情地将世界划分为"我们"和"他们"，再将"他们"降格到非人类状态。


Such classifications probably evolved because they strengthened the cohesion of the "in" group, facilitating cooperation by harnessing hatred for those outside.	这种区别的形成可能由于他们增强了组织"内部"的凝聚力，培植对外仇恨借以促进内部团结。


Hatred and violence against "others" seem to be manifested most powerfully as the result of fear: they are survival reactions.	对"他人"的仇恨和暴力似乎在恐惧之下展现得淋漓尽致：这是人类的生存反应使然。


The descent into barbarism generally occurs in the midst of economic crisis or when localized violence has already flared.	一般在经济危机期间，或局部暴力失控时，人们会堕入野蛮。


Fear leads one group to coalesce in order to protect itself, perhaps by attacking a competing group.	恐惧促使组织联合，并可能以打击对手的方式进行自卫。


This pattern was evident in Yugoslavia's wars of the 1990's, where ethnic communities that had lived together more or less peacefully became enmeshed in civil war in the midst of a deep economic crisis.	上述模式在20世纪90年代的南斯拉夫战争中表现得淋漓尽致。 严重的经济危机中，多多少少曾和平共处的种族陷入了内战的泥潭。


Similarly, Israelis and Palestinians have both engaged in barbaric acts in a tragic interplay of mutual fear that empowers extremists in both communities.	与此相似，以色列和巴勒斯坦人在相互恐惧中悲剧性地上演了野蛮暴行，给双方阵营中的极端主义者创造了生存的土壤。


There is no glory on either side of the Israel-Palestine debacle.	以巴任何一方的溃败都毫无荣誉可言。


But Israel, with its vastly stronger army, could and should have taken much wiser political decisions than occupying the West Bank with settlers.	拥有超级强大军力的以色列本能也本应做出比定居点占领西岸更为明智的政治决策。


American reactions to the Abu Ghraib torture scenes, followed by the beheading of the American hostage Nicholas Berg, show clearly the route to barbarism in a supposedly civilized country.	美国人对阿布格莱布疟俘一幕的反应，以及紧随其后的美国人质尼古拉斯·伯格的野蛮斩首，清楚地显示了人们眼中的文明国家通往野蛮之路。


In May 2004, The New York Times polled readers in a city in the US heartland, Oswego, Illinois.	2004年5月，《纽约时报》对美国中心地带伊利诺斯州奥斯威戈市的读者进行了民意测验。


One retired businessman said, "Let's kill them all. Let's wipe them off the face of the earth."	一位退休的商人说，"把他们都杀光，把他们从地球表面清除出去。


A Nazi leader would not have said it differently.	"纳粹领导人也不会有甚于此了。


A tow truck driver said that the beheading "just affirms what I thought before.	一位拖车司机说斩首"不过肯定了我以前的想法。


We're not being tough enough. This is something that we've got to do.	我们还不够狠，我们必须这么做。


We should attack our enemies directly and not back off till we succeed."	我们应该直接打击敌人，未达胜利绝不撤兵。


A third respondent said something similar.	"第三位被调查者回答也很近似。


"There was so much outrage about the prisoner abuse, which I certainly don't approve of, but this was much worse," she said, referring to the Berg murder.	"疟俘事件令人愤慨，我当然不赞同，但这更无法容忍，"她指的是谋杀伯格。


"What it tells me is that we can't let this kind of evil put down roots. We have to fight it decisively right now, or else we'll never be able to stamp it out."	"它告诉我不能让这样的罪恶生根，必须立刻毫不犹豫地回击，否则就永远不能将其扑灭。


Barbarous thinking comes easily, and right-wingers fuel the fervor, as when Rush Limbaugh said on his radio program "They're the ones who are perverted.	野蛮思维很容易产生，右翼份子又火上浇油。 正如Rush Limbaugh在电台栏目中所说"他们才是非正义的。


They're the ones who are dangerous.	他们才是危险份子。


They're the ones who are subhuman.	他们才是劣等人类。


They're the ones who are human debris, not the United States of America and not our soldiers and our prison guards."	他们才是人渣，美国没有错，我们的士兵和看守也没有错。 "


I am not saying that the US is more depraved than other countries.	我没有说美国比其它国家更邪恶。


What I am saying is that human society, even in the twenty-first century, is capable of sliding into barbaric thinking and action, no matter the level of "development."	我想说的是即便在21世纪，人类社会也会滑向野蛮的思维和行动，这与"发展"水平无关。


The idea that any nation is morally superior, or that it has been divinely chosen as a leader of nations, is dangerous.	任何国家在道德上高人一等、或被庄严地推举为国家领袖的想法都是危险的。


Once we recognize how vulnerable all of the world is to this kind of descent into violence, the importance of international law and international institutions such as the United Nations become all the more obvious.	一旦我们意识到世界各国面临这种暴力堕落时的脆弱，国际法和联合国那样的国际机构就变得更为重要。


The UN successfully resisted the powerful pressures of the US to condone a war with Iraq despite repeated US claims, now known to be false, that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction.	尽管美国一再申请，联合国还是成功抵制了来自美国的强大压力，没有宽恕对伊战争。 现在我们知道美国污蔑伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器的借口根本不成立。


The UN process worked. It was US policy that failed.	联合国程序功效卓著，是美国的政策令人失望。


The events at Abu Ghraib underscore why international rules such as the Geneva Conventions on the treatment of combatants are so vital.	阿布格莱布事件强调了为什么像《日内瓦公约》这样规定如何对待战俘的国际准则如此重要。


By putting itself above the law, America allowed itself to succumb to barbaric behavior.	凌驾于法律之上的美国允许自己向野蛮行为屈服。


Similarly, these events prove why the new International Criminal Court (ICC) is vital.	与之相似，上述事件还证明了为什么新成立的国际犯罪法庭（ICC）如此重要。


The US strongly resisted the jurisdiction of the ICC, but American abuses at Abu Ghraib show why the US, should be subject to international law.	美国对国际犯罪法庭的管辖权提出了强烈抗议，但阿布格莱布的美国疟俘事件表明：美国为什么需要国际法的管辖。


Perhaps that lesson - the need to subject even the most powerful country to international law - will be one benefit of the otherwise disastrous war that the US launched in Iraq.	美国对伊发动的战争是灾难性的，但要让最强大的国家也服从国际法的教训也许可以算作这场战争的好处之一。


If this lesson is learned, the world will be far safer.	如果这个教训能够汲取，世界就会变得更加安全。


America itself will be safer, in part because it will be less likely in the future to unleash a spiral of violence fueled by its own irrational fears and misunderstandings of the world.	未来的日子里，美国自身也会更加安全，这种安全部分来自于美国不再会由于自身失去理智的恐惧和对世界事务的错误理解，而发动一场暴力战争。


The Mauritius Miracle	毛里求斯奇迹


NEW YORK – Suppose someone were to describe a small country that provided free education through university for all of its citizens, transportation for school children, and free health care – including heart surgery – for all.	发自纽约——倘若有人跟你提到某小国不但向其公民提供直通大学的免费教育，学童接送服务，还有免费医疗——包括心脏手术在内。


You might suspect that such a country is either phenomenally rich or on the fast track to fiscal crisis.	你大概会怀疑这个国家要么富得流油，要么就在急速滑向财政危机的深渊。


After all, rich countries in Europe have increasingly found that they cannot pay for university education, and are asking young people and their families to bear the costs.	别忘了，就连许多欧洲富裕国家如今都无法承担大学教育的费用，只得转嫁到年轻人及其家长身上。


For its part, the United States has never attempted to give free college for all, and it took a bitter battle just to ensure that America’s poor get access to health care – a guarantee that the Republican Party is now working hard to repeal, claiming that the country cannot afford it.	而美国则从来没尝试去实现全民免费大学教育，甚至在确保本国贫困人口获得医疗保障方面都颇费了一番周折——共和党目前正极力反对这一保障，理由是国家无法承受这笔支出。


But Mauritius, a small island nation off the east coast of Africa, is neither particularly rich nor on its way to budgetary ruin. Nonetheless, it has spent the last decades successfully building a diverse economy, a democratic political system, and a strong social safety net.	但毛里求斯这个位于非洲东部大洋上的岛国，既不特别富裕，也没有什么严重的预算问题，却在过去数十年间成功建立了一个多元化经济，一个民主政治系统，还有一套完善的社会安全网络，而包括美国在内的许多国家都可以从它身上学到些东西。


In a recent visit to this tropical archipelago of 1.3 million people, I had a chance to see some of the leaps Mauritius has taken – accomplishments that can seem bewildering in light of the debate in the US and elsewhere.	在最近对这个拥有130万人口的热带岛国的访问中，我有机会观察了毛里求斯所实现的飞跃——这些成就在美国以及世界其他地方看来简直有点不可思议。


Consider home ownership: while American conservatives say that the government’s attempt to extend home ownership to 70% of the US population was responsible for the financial meltdown, 87% of Mauritians own their own homes – without fueling a housing bubble.	比如房屋自有状况：当美国保守派认为政府试图令70%的美国人拥有自己的房屋是经济崩溃之源时，87%的毛里求斯人拥有自己的房子——却并未因而催生任何房市泡沫。


Now comes the painful number: Mauritius’s GDP has grown faster than 5% annually for almost 30 years.	再来看一个令人费解的数据：毛里求斯几乎30年以来一直都维持着超过5%的GDP年增长率。


Surely, this must be some “trick.” Mauritius must be rich in diamonds, oil, or some other valuable commodity.	一般来说，这个数字背后肯定有些“绝招”，比如毛里求斯盛产钻石，石油或者其他什么贵重商品。


But Mauritius has no exploitable natural resources.	但这个国家却没有任何可供开发的自然资源。


Indeed, so dismal were its prospects as it approached independence from Britain, which came in 1968, that the Nobel Prize-winning economist James Meade wrote in 1961: “It is going to be a great achievement if [the country] can find productive employment for its population without a serious reduction in the existing standard of living….[T]he outlook for peaceful development is weak.”	事实上，在这个岛国于1968年脱离英国殖民统治宣告独立时，前景似乎一片黯淡，以致诺贝尔经济学奖获得者詹姆斯·米德在1961年撰文写道：“如果（该国）能在现有生活水平没有严重下降的情况下能为其民众提供有效就业，那将是一项了不起的成就……实现顺利发展的前景也不乐观。 ”


As if to prove Meade wrong, the Mauritians have increased per capita income from less than $400 around the time of independence to more than $6,700 today.	似乎是为了证明米德是错的，毛里求斯人的年均收入从独立时的不足400美元提升到如今超过6700美元。


The country has progressed from the sugar-based monoculture of 50 years ago to a diversified economy that includes tourism, finance, textiles, and, if current plans bear fruit, advanced technology.	该国从50年前以制糖为主的单一经济转化成为一个涵盖旅游、金融，纺织以及高科技（如果最近的相关计划成功的话）的多元化经济结构。


During my visit, my interest was to understand better what had led to what some have called the Mauritius Miracle, and what others might learn from it.	在访问过程中，我感兴趣的就是深入探讨究竟是什么造就了所谓毛里求斯奇迹，而其他人又如何能从中有所借鉴。


There are, in fact, many lessons, some of which should be borne in mind by politicians in the US and elsewhere as they fight their budget battles.	事实上毛里求斯有许多方面的经验，其中有些是美国以及其他在预算斗争中挣扎的国家的政治家们应该牢记于心的。


First, the question is not whether we can afford to provide health care or education for all, or ensure widespread homeownership.	首先，问��不是究竟我们是否有能力承担医疗保障和教育，或者是实现涵盖绝大部分民众的房屋自有权。


If Mauritius can afford these things, America and Europe – which are several orders of magnitude richer – can, too.	如果毛里求斯能承担起这些，那么美国和欧洲——这些比毛里求斯富有不知道多少倍的地方——也能做到这一点。


The question, rather, is how to organize society.	问题其实是如何组织整个社会。


Mauritians have chosen a path that leads to higher levels of social cohesion, welfare, and economic growth – and to a lower level of inequality.	毛里求斯选择了一条走向高社会凝聚力，高福利和高速发展的道路——同时也将社会不平等状况维持在较细微的程度。


Second, unlike many other small countries, Mauritius has decided that most military spending is a waste.	其二，与其他小国不同，毛里求斯认为大部分军费支出都是浪费。


The US need not go as far: just a fraction of the money that America spends on weapons that don’t work against enemies that don’t exist would go a long way toward creating a more humane society, including provision of health care and education to those who cannot afford them.	同理美国也可以不那么穷兵黩武：只要从那些用来打击根本不存在的敌人的军费支出中拿出一小笔钱，就能创建一个更加人道的美国社会，向那些无法承担医疗和教育费用的人提供保障。


Third, Mauritius recognized that without natural resources, its people were its only asset. Maybe that appreciation for its human resources is also what led Mauritius to realize that, particularly given the country’s potential religious, ethnic, and political differences – which some tried to exploit in order to induce it to remain a British colony – education for all was crucial to social unity.	第三，毛里求斯认为既然本国没有自然资源，那么人民就是唯一的资产。 或许对本国人力资源的珍视也是导致毛里求斯人意识到教育才是实现社会团结的最关键一点——须知该国内部存在许多潜在的宗教，种族和政治差异，当年正有人想利用这些使其继续沦为英国殖民地。


So was a strong commitment to democratic institutions and cooperation between workers, government, and employers – precisely the opposite of the kind of dissension and division being engendered by conservatives in the US today.	同时还有一个对民主体制以及工人，政府和雇主之间合作的坚定承诺——而这恰恰就是美国保守派如今挑起的争吵和分裂的反面。


This is not to say that Mauritius is without problems.	但这也不是说毛里求斯就是十全十美。


Like many other successful emerging-market countries, Mauritius is confronting a loss of exchange-rate competitiveness.	像其他许多成功的新兴市场国家一样，毛里求斯也遭遇着汇率竞争力流失的状况。


And, as more and more countries intervene to weaken their exchange rates in response to America’s attempt at competitive devaluation through quantitative easing, the problem is becoming worse.	随着越来越多国家尝试降低汇率来应对美国通过美元贬值提升竞争力的量化宽松政策，这个情况正在不断恶化。


Almost surely, Mauritius, too, will have to intervene.	可以肯定地说，毛里求斯也无法独善其身。


Moreover, like many other countries around the world, Mauritius worries today about imported food and energy inflation.	此外，和世界上许多国家一样，毛里求斯对进口食品和能源导致的输入性通胀忧心不已。


To respond to inflation by increasing interest rates would simply compound the difficulties of high prices with high unemployment and an even less competitive exchange rate.	通过提高利率来应对通胀将直接使高物价，高失业率以及一个竞争力更弱的汇率状况更加恶化。


Direct interventions, restrictions on short-term capital inflows, capital-gains taxes, and stabilizing prudential banking regulations will all have to be considered.	对此政府直接干预，限制短期资金流入，资本利得税以及稳定谨慎的银行管制都必须考虑在内。


The Mauritius Miracle dates to independence.	毛里求斯奇迹从独立开始。


But the country still struggles with some of its colonial legacies: inequality in land and wealth, as well as vulnerability to high-stakes global politics.	但该国仍然摆脱不了某些殖民时期的尾巴：土地和财富的不平均，还有高风险的全球政治。


The US occupies one of Mauritius’s offshore islands, Diego Garcia, as a naval base without compensation, officially leasing it from the United Kingdom, which not only retained the Chagos Islands in violation of the UN and international law, but expelled its citizens and refuses to allow them to return.	美国无偿占有了毛里求斯的一个海岛（迪亚戈·加西亚岛）并正式从英国租赁了这个岛，不但无视相关联合国和国际法规占据查戈斯群岛，甚至还驱逐了岛上的居民并拒绝他们回归。


The US should now do right by this peaceful and democratic country: recognize Mauritius’ rightful ownership of Diego Garcia, renegotiate the lease, and redeem past sins by paying a fair amount for land that it has illegally occupied for decades.	为此美国如今该为这个平静而民主的岛国做点好事：承认毛里求斯对迪亚戈·加西亚岛的合法拥有权，重新谈判其租赁问题，并支付一笔合理的补偿金来偿还自己非法占领该岛数十年的罪孽。


The Media Cold War	媒体冷战


PRINCETON – An information war has erupted around the world.	普林斯顿—一场全球信息战已经爆发。


The battle lines are drawn between those governments that regard the free flow of information, and the ability to access it, as a matter of fundamental human rights, and those that regard official control of information as a fundamental sovereign prerogative.	战线的一边是捍卫新闻自由的政府，它们将新闻自由视为基本人权之一； 另一边是捍卫信息控制的政府，它们将官方信息控制视为基本主权特征。


The contest is being waged institutionally in organizations like the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and daily in countries like Syria.	战斗是制度性的，国际电信联盟（ITU）和叙利亚等国的日报等组织剑拔弩张。


The sociologist Philip N. Howard recently used the term “new cold war” to describe “battles between broadcast media outlets and social-media upstarts, which have very different approaches to news production, ownership, and censorship.”	社会学家霍华德（Philip N. Howard）最近用“新冷战”一词形容“广播媒体机构和社交媒体新贵之间的战斗，后者拥有与前者极其不同的新产品、所有权和审查方式”。


Because broadcasting requires significant funding, it is more centralized – and thus much more susceptible to state control.	广播必须有强大的资金支持，因此更加集中化，因因此更容易被国家控制。


Social media, by contrast, transforms anyone with a mobile phone into a potential roving monitor of government deeds or misdeeds, and are hard to shut down without shutting down the entire Internet.	反之，对于社交媒体，任何人只要拥有一部手机就能成为潜在的政府善行和恶行监督员，除非关闭整个互联网，否则很难将社交媒体根除。


Surveying struggles between broadcast and social media in Russia, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, Howard concludes that, notwithstanding their different media cultures, all three governments strongly back state-controlled broadcasting.	在考察了俄罗斯、叙利亚和沙特的广播与社交媒体之争后，霍华德下了这样一个结论：尽管媒体文化各不相同，但三国政府均大力支持国家控制的广播。


These intra-media struggles are interesting and important.	这些媒体内竞争既有趣，也重要。


The way that information circulates does reflect, as Howard argues, a conception of how a society/polity should be organized.	霍华德指出，信息流通的方式确实反映出社会/政体应该如何组织的问题。


But an even deeper difference concerns the fundamental issue of who owns information in the first place.	但一个更深层次的差别在于谁拥有第一手信息这一根本问题。


In January 2010, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proclaimed that the United States “stand[s] for a single Internet where all of humanity has equal access to information and ideas.”	2010年1月，美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿宣称美国“誓要建成一个让所有人类都能平等获得信息和思想的单一互联网”。


She linked that stance not only to the US Constitution’s First Amendment, which protects freedom of expression and freedom of the press, but also to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which holds that all people have the right “to seek, receive, and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.”	她不仅将这一立场与保护言论和出版自由的美国宪法第一修正案相提并论，还把它提高到了《世界人权宣言》的高度——所有人都有“通过任何地方的任何媒体寻找、获得和传播信息”的权利。


Many governments’ determination to “erect electronic barriers” to block their citizens’ efforts to access the full resources of the Internet, she said, means that “a new information curtain is descending across our world.”	她说，许多政府“修建电子藩篱”以阻挡公民充分接触互联网的所有资源的的决定意味着“一面新的信息面纱正在把我们的世界隔开”。


This larger struggle is playing out in many places, including the ITU, which will convene 190 countries in Dubai in December to update an international telecommunications treaty first adopted in 1988.	更大范围的斗争正在各个角落开展。 比如ITU将于12月在迪拜召开大会，190个成员国将修订更新1988年出台的国际通信条约。


Although many of the treaty’s details are highly technical, involving the routing of telecommunications, various governments have submitted proposals to amend the treaty that include provisions aimed at facilitating government censorship of the Internet.	该条约的很多内容都是高度技术性的，涉及到通信的路由问题，但许多国家的政府都递交了修订条约以便于政府对互联网进行审查的建议。


Russian President Vladimir Putin has been open about his desire to use the ITU “to establish international control” over the Internet, thereby superseding current arrangements, which leave Internet governance in the hands of private groups like the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers and the Internet Engineering Task Force.	俄罗斯总统普京公开表示希望通过ITU对互联网“建立国际控制”，以取代将互联网治理权授予互联网名称与数字分配局（Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers）互联网工程任务组（Internet Engineering Task Force）等私人团体的当前安排。


The US would never sign a treaty that fundamentally changed Internet governance arrangements, but the point is that many governments will try to use the treaty process to increase their ability to control the information that their citizens can access.	美国不会在任何从根本上改变互联网治理的安排上签字，但问题在于许多政府会试图利用这一立约过程增加它们对公民可获得信息的控制能力。


On the ground, governments are often still primarily focused on blocking information about what they are doing.	在这场战斗中，政府的注意力通常仍放在屏蔽它们在做什么的信息上。


One of the Syrian government’s first moves after it began shooting protesters, for example, was to expel all foreign journalists.	比如，叙利亚政府在向示威者开枪后做的第一件事是驱逐所有外国记者。


Several weeks ago, the government of Tajikistan blocked YouTube and reportedly shut down communications networks in a remote region where government forces were battling an opposition group.	几个星期前，塔吉克斯坦政府屏蔽了YouTube，据说还切断了边远地区的通信网络，因为政府军在这些地区与反对派组织交了火。


The Chinese government barred all foreign journalists from Tibet when it cracked down hard on protesters before the 2008 Olympics.	2008年奥运会开幕前，中国曾在西藏镇压示威者，此间所有外国记者都被禁止进入西藏。


These more traditional tactics can now be supplemented with new tools for misinformation.	如今，这些传统手段可以辅之以误导的新工具了。


For close followers of the Syrian conflict, tracking key reporters and opposition representatives on Twitter can be a surreal experience.	对于跟踪叙利亚冲突消息的人来说，在Twitter上关注关键记者和反对派代表的感觉颇有些超现实主义。


Two weeks ago, Ausama Monajed, a Syrian strategic communications consultant who sends out a steady stream of information and links to opposition activities in Syria, suddenly started sending out pro-government propaganda.	两周前，叙利亚战略通讯顾问莫纳伊德（Ausama Monajed）突然开始发布支持政府的宣传资料，而此前他一直在散播与叙利亚反对派活动有关的信息。


The Saudi-owned satellite news channel Al Arabiya has also reported the hacking of its Twitter feed by the “Electronic Syrian Army,” a shadowy group most likely comprised of free-lance operatives with the direct or indirect support of the Syrian government.	沙特国有卫星新闻频道阿拉伯电视台（Al Arabiya）也报道了其Twitter种子被“叙利亚电子军”（Electronic Syrian Army）黑掉的新闻。 叙利亚电子军是一个影子组织，极有可能由叙利亚政府直接或间接支持的自由职业操作者组成。


It is one thing to read about sophisticated cyber-war capabilities; it is quite another to see the online identities of familiar people or Web sites suddenly hijacked.	享受阅读成熟高端的网络战工具是一回事，目睹熟悉的人的网络身份和网站突然被黑是截然不同的另一回事。


In the many manifestations of the ongoing and growing information war(s), the pro-freedom-of-information forces need a new weapon.	在众多信息战如火如荼、愈演愈烈的表现中，支持信息自由的力量需要新武器。


A government’s banning of journalists or blocking of news and social-media Web sites that were previously allowed should itself be regarded as an early warning sign of a crisis meriting international scrutiny.	政府驱逐记者或屏蔽原本不加屏蔽的新闻和社交媒体网站本身就应该被视为应接受国际监督的危机早期信号。


The presumption should be that governments with nothing to hide have nothing to lose by allowing their citizens and internationally recognized media to report on their actions.	我们应该采取这样的假设：无可隐瞒的政府不会因允许其人民和得到国际认可的媒体报道其行为而失去任何东西。


To give this presumption teeth, it should be included in international trade and investment agreements.	为了让这一假设具有效力，我们必须将它纳入国际贸易和投资协议中去。


Imagine if the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and regional development banks suspended financing as soon as a government pulled down an information curtain.	想象一下，如果一国政府放下信息帷幕，IMF、世界银行和地区开发银行立刻中断对它的融资会怎样。


Suppose foreign investors wrote contracts providing that the expulsion and banning of foreign journalists or widespread blocking of access to international news sources and social media constituted a sign of political risk sufficient to suspend investor obligations under the contract.	想象一下，如果外国投资者在合同中规定驱逐和阻止外国记者或大范围屏蔽国际新闻源和社交媒体触发政治风险并足以中止投资者的合同义务会怎样。


Americans say that sunlight is the best disinfectant.	美国人常说，阳光是最好的消毒剂。


Citizens’ access to information is an essential tool to hold governments accountable.	公民能够获得信息是保持政府可问责性的关键。


Government efforts to manipulate or block information should be presumed to be an abuse of power – one intended to mask many other abuses.	政府操纵或屏蔽信息的举动应该被视为滥用权力——掩盖其他滥用行为的滥用行为。


The Media Versus the Mentally Ill	媒体对阵精神病患者


MELBOURNE – James Holmes, accused of opening fire in a crowded movie theater in Aurora, Colorado, last summer, had no criminal history, but was seeing a psychiatrist prior to the incident.	墨尔本—被控去年夏天在科罗拉多州奥罗拉（Aurora）满座剧院纵火的詹姆斯·霍尔姆斯（James Holmes）没有犯罪记录，但在事件发生前就诊过精神科。


Adam Lanza, suspected of murdering his mother and gunning down 20 children and six adult staff members at a Connecticut elementary school before taking his own life, had never been in legal trouble, but had been diagnosed with a “personality disorder,” as well as the developmental disorder Asperger syndrome.	被疑谋杀母亲并枪杀康涅狄格州某小学20名儿童和6名成人教职员工随后自尽的亚当·兰扎（Adam Lanza）从未陷入过法律纠纷，但被诊断为“人格失常”，即亚斯伯格（Asperger）发育失常症候。


Anders Behring Breivik in Norway, Jared Lee Loughner in Arizona, Seung-Hui Cho in Virginia – the list of mass murderers defined according to their mental illnesses goes on.	挪威的安德斯·贝林·布雷维克（Anders Behring Breivik）、亚利桑那州的杰瑞德·李·拉夫纳（Jared Lee Loughner）、弗吉尼亚州的赵承熙（Seung-Hui Cho），这些大规模杀人案主犯都有精神病。


The fact is that deciding to murder, at random, a large number of innocent people reflects deeply disturbed thinking, which might reflect a mental illness.	事实是，决定随机地屠杀大量无辜人群反映了深度思维紊乱，而这有可能是精神病的反映。


But, contrary to popular belief, this does not mean that people with mental illnesses are likely to be dangerous or violent.	但是，与流行的看法相反，这并不意味着精神病患者很危险或有暴力倾向。


The belief that they are – and the reporting that feeds it – is reinforcing widespread stigmatization of those with mental illness, increasing their suffering and preventing them from participating fully in society.	认为他们如此——以及引起这一看法的报道——正在让广泛存在的妖魔化精神病患者的现象变本加厉，增加他们的痛苦，也使他们无法完全融入社会。


Public perceptions of the risk of violence associated with mental illness are at odds with the facts.	公众所认为的与精神病相关的暴力风险与事实并不一致。


In the United States, for example, roughly 42% of adults believe that a depressed child is likely to be dangerous.	比如，在美国，大约42%的成年人相信压抑的孩子可能是危险的。


And 70% of Americans believe that patients hospitalized for a mental illness may be dangerous.	70%的美国人相信就诊精神科的病人可能是危险的。