Such activism has been even more pronounced concerning Iran, with Turkish leaders multiplying diplomatic efforts in recent months to help ease the nuclear standoff with the West.	这种积极性在伊朗问题上更加明显，在最近几个月里，为帮助缓和伊朗与西方国家在核问题上的僵局，土耳其领导人的外交努力更是培增。


Turkey, more fearful of the regional repercussions of a nuclear Iran than of any direct threat it would pose, went as far as to host a visit by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last August.	土耳其对伊朗若成为核国家后对区域的影响，比其直接的威胁更感到担心，伊朗总统艾哈迈迪·内贾德在去年8月甚至对土耳其进行了访问。


Turkey’s ability to make headway in the Middle East reflects the erosion of US legitimacy and lack of EU influence.	土耳其在中东取得的进展反映了美国的合法性的削弱和欧盟影响力的缺失。


The US lost its ability to play a more constructive role in the region following its ill-fated intervention in Iraq, while the Bush administration’s neo-conservative “freedom agenda” for the Arab world also backfired.	在命运多舛的对伊拉克的干预之后，美国失去了它在该地区发挥更有建设性作用的能力，而布什政府的新保守主义对阿拉伯世界的“自由议程”，效果也适得其反。


While the US initially distanced itself from the more autocratic Arab leaders in a bid to support homegrown democratic alternatives, when the only realistic alternative turned out to be political Islam, America quickly returned to its traditional policy of supporting the status quo .	虽然美国起先与更专制的阿拉伯国家领导人保持距离，意在支持这些国家国内产生的民主道路，但当唯一现实的选择被证明是政治伊斯兰时，美国迅速回到其传统的支持维持现状的政策上来。


Unlike the US, the EU’s difficulties stem not from a perceived lack of legitimacy or crude attempts at promoting democracy, but from a real lack of unity and, therefore, influence.	与美国不同，欧盟的困难不是源于缺乏合法性或缺乏促进民主的基本的努力，而是缺乏真正的团结，因此而造成了影响力的缺失。


The absence of a common denominator among EU governments’ positions has hardly been conducive to the emergence of the cogent and reliable diplomacy needed to address the Middle East’s deep problems.	欧盟各国政府缺乏共同立场，这种现象几乎没有可能催生解决中东的深层问题所需要的有力和可靠的外交政策。


In these circumstances, Turkey has been able to leverage both its regional ties and its standing in the transatlantic community to play a more instrumental role vis-à-vis its southern neighbors.	在这种情况下，土耳其一直能够利用其区域关系及其在跨大西洋区域的地位，相对于其南部邻国，它发挥着更加有益的作用。


Two additional factors further enhance Turkey’s potential for regional influence.	另有两个因素进一步加强了土耳其影响该区域的潜力。


First, the rise of an Arab political class that is more influenced by religion than by secular nationalism has eroded the main structural barrier to Turkish engagement.	首先，一个更受宗教而非受世俗民族主义影响的阿拉伯政治阶层已经崛起，它削弱了土耳其参与该地区事务的主要的结构性障碍。


The Ottoman legacy of a working state structure, tolerant of religion, has begun to be viewed in a more favorable light, and the contemporary Turkish model, with its ability to nurture a democracy-friendly Islam, is suddenly in demand.	奥斯曼帝国留下来的对宗教宽容的可行的国家结构，已开始被更多的人接受； 能催生民主的友善的伊斯兰的当代土耳其模式，突然开始被大家所需要。


Second, Turkey has been more prepared than ever to take advantage of these fundamental shifts.	其次，土耳其比以往任何时候都更愿意利用这些根本性的转变。


Erdoğan’s ruling AKP traces its roots to political Islam, and many of its leaders’ social networks are in Islamic countries – in stark contrast to the secular style of Turkey’s previous leaders, who proudly displayed their Western identity.	埃尔多安的执政党-正义与发展党，其根源可追溯到政治伊斯兰，它的许多领导人的社会网络在伊斯兰国家-和土耳其前领导人的非宗教风格形成了鲜明的对比，而后者曾自豪地展示了他们的亲西方身份。


As a result, formal and informal links between the new Turkish political élite and the Arab world have been easier to forge.	其结果是，新的土耳其政治精英和阿拉伯世界之间正式和非正式的联系更容易形成。


There can be no doubt that growing foreign-policy activism, especially in relation to the Middle East, has begun to enhance Turkey’s role and influence in its own region.	毫无疑问，日益积极的、尤其是在中东地区的外交政策，已开始在其本地区加强了土耳其的作用和影响。


Indeed, Turkey is now firmly set to become a regional power, with its recent election to the UN Security Council a further testimony to its diplomatic prowess.	事实上，土耳其现在决心要成为一个地区性大国，它最近被选入联合国安理会进一步证明了其外交实力。


But does Turkey’s shift of focus southward and toward regional power status come at the expense of the country’s EU ambitions?	但土耳其的重心南移和对地区大国地位的追求，是否意味着要牺牲该国加入欧盟的雄心呢？


For optimists, Turkey’s growing regional influence enhances its value for the EU.	对于乐观主义者来说，土耳其不断增长的地区影响力，增强了其对欧盟的价值。


But this assumes that Europe is willing and able to benefit from what Turkey has to offer.	但这是假设欧洲愿意且能够从土耳其所能提供的价值中受益。


In other words, this strategy is compatible with EU accession only if the EU strengthens its own capacity for concerted action on foreign policy.	换言之，只有当欧盟在外交政策上加强自身采取协调一致的行动能力，这种策略才是与土耳其加入欧盟是相符的。


In that case, Turkey’s membership would not, as European federalists argue, lead to a weaker Europe. On the contrary, it would make Europe a more influential and capable world power.	正如欧洲联邦主义者所认为得那样，这样土耳其这一成员国将不会导致欧洲力量的削弱，相反，它将会使欧洲成为一支更有影响力和能力的世界性强大力量。


Turkey’s Nation of Faiths	土耳其的国家信仰


ANKARA – After decades of official neglect and mistrust, Turkey has taken several steps to ensure the rights of the country’s non-Muslim religious minorities, and thus to guarantee that the rule of law is applied equally for all Turkish citizens, regardless of individuals’ religion, ethnicity, or language.	发自安卡拉——在长达几十年的故意忽视和不信任之后，土耳其官方终于开始采取一系列措施来保障该国非穆斯林群体的权利，并以此确保所有土耳其公民，无论拥有何种信仰，种族和语言，都能平等地享受到法治。


Turkey’s religious minorities include Greek Orthodox, Armenian, Assyrian, Kaldani, and other Christian denominations, as well as Jews, all of whom are integral parts of Turkish society.	土耳其的宗教少数群体，包括希腊东正教徒、亚美尼亚人、亚述人，卡尔达尼人和其他基督教派系，还有犹太人，都是整个土耳其社会的一部分。


As part of the Turkish government’s new initiative to end any sort of discrimination against these non-Muslim communities, President Abdullah Gül has emphasized that message by receiving Bartholemew, the Greek-Orthodox Patriarch of Istanbul, and by visiting a church and a synagogue in Hatay – a first by a Turkish president.	作为土耳其政府终结一切形式的歧视非穆斯林社区政策的新动议的一部分，总统阿卜杜拉·居尔一方面接见了伊斯坦堡希腊东正教牧首巴塞洛缪一世（Bartholemew I），另一方面则分别访问了哈塔依（Hatay）地区的一所基督教堂和犹太教堂——这对土耳其总统来说还是头一次。


In August 2009, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with leaders of religious minorities on Büyükada, the largest of the Prince Islands in the Sea of Marmara, and listened to their problems and concerns, a clear signal of his government’s intent to buttress their sense of civil inclusion.	在2009年八月，土耳其总理厄尔多安在马尔马拉海王子群岛中最大的岛屿Büyükada岛上会见了各宗教少数派领袖，并听取了他们的困难和意见。 而这也是政府试图加强各宗教文明包容感的明确信号。


As Deputy Prime Minister, I met with representatives of religious minorities in March 2010, and visited the Armenian and Greek Orthodox Patriarchies in 2010 and 2011.	而作为副总理，笔者也在2010年三月会见了宗教少数群体代表，并分别在2010和2011年拜访了亚美尼亚和希腊东正教牧首。


Likewise, Turkey’s minister for European Union affairs, Egemen Bağış, has met with these communities’ leaders on several occasions.	同样，土耳其的欧盟事务部长埃盖曼·巴厄什（Egemen Bağış）也在不同场合与相关宗教少数群体的领袖进行了会面。


Beyond establishing warm relations between the Turkish government and the country’s religious minorities, official policy has been changing as well.	在土耳其政府与本国宗教少数派建立联系的同时，官方政策也发生了改变。


In May 2010, Prime Minister Erdoğan issued an official statement that warned public servants and citizens against any discrimination against religious minorities, and that emphasized the absolute equality of Turkey’s non-Muslim citizens.	在2010年五月，总理厄尔多安签发了一份正式声明，严令公务人员和公民不可对宗教少数群体做出任何形式的歧视行为，并强调了土耳其非穆斯林公民所享受的绝对平等。


But the groundwork for the initiative of recent years was laid long before.	但针对这几年动议的准备工作其实早已开展了。


In August 2003, the Erdoğan-led government introduced legal changes to resolve property-rights issues related to religious minority associations.	在2003年八月，厄尔多安所领导的政府就启动了一系列司法改革来解决与宗教少数派群体相关的财产问题。


For the first time in the Republic’s history, 365 landholdings and buildings belonging to the minority communities were legally registered under their name.	在土耳其共和国的历史上，终于第一次有365块（栋）土地和建筑的以合法注册在少数群体名下。


In 2008, the government, despite fierce opposition from other political parties, changed the Law of Associations and allowed religious-minority associations to purchase real estate (and to receive contributions, regardless of size, from abroad).	在2008年，政府不顾其他政党的强烈反对，修改了《社团组织法》并允许宗教少数群体组织购买地产（并接受金额不限的海外捐助）。


Then, in August 2011, an important amendment to the Associations law mandated the return of more than 350 properties to religious minorities.	接着在2011年八月，一项对《社团组织法》的重要修正准许将超过350个产业归还给宗教少数群体。


As part of these changes, the Greek-Orthodox Girls School in Beyoğlu, Istanbul, and the Jewish Community Center in Izmir have been granted legal status, ending a century-old dispute.	作为这些改变的一部分，伊斯坦堡贝伊奥卢区的东正教女子学校以及伊兹密尔的犹太社区中心都被赋予了合法地位，使长达一个世纪的争端的以终结。


Even before that, in November 2010, the Greek-Orthodox Orphanage on Halki Island was returned to the Greek-Orthodox Patriarchy.	而在那之前的2010年11月，位于土耳其霍尔基的希腊东正教孤儿院被归还给东正教牧首。


In order to facilitate their religious duties, the Orthodox metropolitans were granted Turkish citizenship.	为有利于旅行自身的宗教责任，一些东正教牧师还被授予了土耳其国籍。


Furthermore, the Associations Council, the country’s highest authority on religious associations, now includes for the first time a non-Muslim member representing minority faiths.	此外，社团组织委员会——土耳其管理宗教组织的最高权力机关，如今也首次包含了代表少数宗教的非穆斯林委员。


Moreover, the Directorate-General of Associations has been charged with the task of renovating houses of worship used by religious minorities, including the historic Aya Nikola Church in Gökçeada Çanakkale, and the Assyrian Catholic Church and Greek Catholic Church in Iskenderun.	另外，社团组织主管被赋予了翻新宗教少数派祈祷场所的重任，包括Gökçeada Çanakkale地区历史悠久的Aya Nikola教堂，还有伊斯肯德仑市的亚述人天主教堂和希腊天主教堂。


A number of other churches and synagogues are also under renovation.	还有相当数量的基督教堂和犹太教堂都在翻新。


The authorities have taken many other historically and symbolically important steps as well.	当局还采取了许多具有重要历史性和象征意义的步骤。


The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has renovated the Panagia Sümela Monastery, a 1,600-year-old church in Trabzon on the Black Sea coast.	土耳其文化和旅游部还翻修了位于黑海沿岸特拉布宗地区的，拥有1600年历史的Panagia Sümela修道院。


The first mass in decades was held in August 2010, led by Bartholomew and attended by hundreds of worshippers from Greece, Russia, Georgia, Europe, the United States, and Turkey.	数十年以来的第一次祈祷在2010年8月举行，由巴塞洛缪一世主持，还有数百位来自希腊、俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚，欧洲，美国和土耳其的朝拜者前来出席。


Another milestone was the renovation and opening of the 1,100-year old Armenian Aghtamar Church in March 2007.	另一个里程碑式的事件就是翻修并在2007年3月开放拥有1100年历史的亚美尼亚Aghtamar教堂。


The first mass in 95 years was held in the church, led by the Armenian Archbishop Aram Ateşyan and attended by thousands of worshippers.	该教堂中断了95年的祈祷由亚美尼亚基督教大主教Aram Ateşyan主持，吸引了数千名信众前来。


These measures have been taken to address the long-standing problems of Turkey’s non-Muslim religious minorities.	这些举措都用来应对土耳其非穆斯林宗教少数群体所面对的长期悬而未决的问题。


Turkish Muslims have lived with Jewish and Christian communities for centuries and treated them with respect and compassion.	几个世纪以来土耳其穆斯林都和犹太教徒和基督教徒和平共处，相互尊重。


We are determined to solve their remaining problems, and we believe that we can do so through mutual trust and cooperation.	我们决心要解决他们目前依然存在的问题，也相信可以通过互信与合作实现这一点。


Turkey’s Jews and Christians are full citizens with equal rights, and we will work to ensure that this reality is recognized in all areas of the country’s life.	土耳其的犹太教徒和基督教徒都是拥有平等权利的全权公民，我们将致力于确保这个现实能得到土耳其全体国民的认同。


Turkey’s New Course	土耳其的新方针


CHICAGO – Turkey has recently been at the forefront of international economic and political debates.	芝加哥——近来，土耳其一直是国际经济和政治辩论的焦点。


On the one hand, despite the economic crisis engulfing neighboring Europe, Turkey remains the world’s second-fastest growing economy, after China.	一方面，尽管经济危机席卷欧洲，与之为邻的土耳其仍保持世界第二的经济增速，仅次于中国。


On the other hand, there is almost no issue on the global agenda – from Iraq and Afghanistan to Somalia, Iran, and the Arab Spring, and from sustainable development to a dialogue among civilizations – on which Turkey is not playing a visible role.	另一方面，土耳其的重要性几乎在所有全球性议题中得到体现——从伊拉克、阿富汗到索马里，从伊朗到阿拉伯春天，再从可持续发展到不同文明之间的对话。


This is a rather new phenomenon.	这种局面并非由来已久。


Until a decade ago, Turkey was regarded as no more than a staunch NATO ally.	不过十年前，人们还认为土耳其只不过是北约的坚定盟友。


That began to change in 2002, when an era of political stability dawned, giving rise to a vision for a stronger Turkey – and a firm commitment to realizing that vision.	然而转变始于2002年，自那时起土耳其政治逐渐稳定，从而产生了更强土耳其的意愿以及实现这一愿景的坚定承诺。


To this end, Turkey’s governments since 2002 implemented bold economic reforms that paved the way for sustainable growth and provided a firewall against the financial crisis that hit in 2008.	为此，土耳其政府自2002年起实施大胆的经济改革。 此举铺平了可持续增长的道路，并设下防火墙预防了2008年金融危机向国内扩散。


As a result, in less than a decade, GDP has tripled, making Turkey the world’s 16th largest economy.	在不到十年的时间，国内生产总值已经翻了两番，使土耳其成为世界第16大经济体。


Moreover, the country benefits from strong public finances, prudent monetary policy, sustainable debt dynamics, a sound banking system, and well-functioning credit markets.	此外，强大的公共财政，稳健的货币政策，可持续的债务状态，健全的银行体系，运作良好的信贷市场都为经济建设助力。


At the same time, we expanded the scope of individual rights, which had long been subordinated to security concerns.	同时，我们扩大了个人权利，不再视之为安全威胁。


We streamlined civil-military relations, guaranteed social and cultural rights, and attended to the problems of ethnic and religious minorities.	我们减少军队对公民的干预，保证社会和文化权利，并正视少数族裔和宗教的问题。


These reforms transformed Turkey into a vibrant democracy and a more stable society, at peace with itself and able to view its external environment in a different light.	这些改革使土耳其成为充满活力的民主国家，国内稳定和谐，同时能够以新的眼光观察其外部环境。


Quite simply, we stopped viewing our geography and history as a curse or disadvantage.	简而言之，我们不再将本国的地理位置和历史进程看作是诅咒或劣势。


On the contrary, we began to regard our location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East as an opportunity to interact simultaneously with multiple players.	相反，我们开始把位于欧亚与中东十字路口的独特区位，视作与多方同时互动的机会。


As a result, we began to reach out to countries in our neighborhood and beyond. We tried to expand political dialogue, enhance economic interdependence, and strengthen cultural and social understanding.	因此，我们开始接触邻国和更远各国，试图与之扩大政治对话，加强经济互利，并加强文化和社会理解。


And, while ten years is too short for a definitive assessment of such an ambitious policy, we have undoubtedly covered considerable ground.	尽管10年时间里还不能明确评估这样雄心勃勃的政策产生的效果，但无疑我们已取得很大进展。


For example, we have quadrupled our trade volume just with our neighbors.	比如，目前我国仅同邻国的贸易额就已经翻了两番。


On several occasions, we have also been instrumental in facilitating peace and reconciliation.	此外，我们还一直在多种场合促进和平与和解。


But, what is more important, Turkey has become a model of success that many countries around us now seek to emulate.	而更为重要的是，土耳其已作为成功的典范，为周围的许多国家争相仿效。


And yet, until a year or two ago, some political pundits were asking, “Who lost Turkey?” or “Whither Turkey?” – the assumption being that Turkey had shifted its foreign-policy axis away from the West.	可是，直到一两年前，一些政治评论家总在问，“谁丢失了土耳其？ ”或“土耳其向何处去？


In fact, Turkey’s external orientation has remained constant, because it rests on the values that we share with the free world.	他们假设，土耳其倾向西方的外交政策轴心已经转移。 事实上，土耳其的外交方针没有改变，因为我们同自由世界共享相同的价值观。


What has changed is our increased assertiveness in our efforts to ensure greater stability and human welfare in our region, evident in our advocacy of freedom, democracy, and accountability not only for ourselves, but also for others.	变化的只是我们更为确信，土耳其应为确保本地区更大的稳定和人类的福祉而做出努力。 这在我们对自由、民主和问责的倡导中明显可以看到。


This approach has been reflected in the Arab Spring, which Turkey ardently supported from the outset. We have not hesitated in siding with those fighting for their rights and dignity.	在阿拉伯春天中，我们一开始毫不迟疑地站在与那些为权利和尊严而战的革命力量一边,并给予支持。


Indeed, in countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, which are now attempting to institutionalize change, Turkey is their most active partner, sharing our own experience and providing tangible assistance in the form of economic cooperation and political capacity building.	事实上，在突尼斯、埃及、利比亚和也门等国，土耳其是助其将变革制度化的最活跃伙伴。 我们与之共享自己的经验，并以经济合作和政治能力建设的形式提供有形援助。


In Syria, on the other hand, the revolution has not yet come to fruition, owing to the regime’s brutal repression of its opponents.	另一方面，在叙利亚，由于政权的残酷镇压，革命尚未成功。


Every day, scores of people there die in pursuit of dignity.	每天都有数十人因追求尊严而死。


Turkey is doing all that it can to alleviate the Syrian people’s suffering.	土耳其将尽一切可能缓解叙利亚人民的苦难。


Unfortunately, the international community as a whole has so far performed poorly in providing an effective response to the crisis.	但可惜迄今为止，国际社会还没有作为一个整体给出应对危机的有效方案。


Turkey’s position on Iran’s nuclear program has been similarly clear: we are categorically opposed to the presence of weapons of mass destruction in our region.	对伊朗的核计划，土耳其的立场一贯明确：我们坚决反对本地区大规模杀伤性武器的存在。


Attempts to develop or acquire WMDs might well trigger a regional arms race, leading to further instability and threatening international peace and security.	发展或获取大规模杀伤性武器的企图可能引发地区军备竞赛，导致进一步的不稳定并威胁国际和平与安全。


That is why we have always called for the establishment of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East, including both Iran and Israel.	这就是为什么我们一直呼吁建立中东无大规模杀伤性武器区，该区应包括伊朗和以色列。


We support Iran’s right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.	我们支持伊朗为和平目的利用核能的权利。


But Iran’s program must be transparent, and its leaders must assure the international community of its non-military nature.	但伊朗的计划必须是透明的，其领导者必须向国际社会保证其非军事性质。


The key is to close the confidence gap and pave the way for meaningful dialogue.	关键在于克服戒备心理，为有意义的对话铺平道路。


In April, we hosted the inaugural round of revived talks between the international community and Iran.	今年4月，我们举办了首轮国际社会和伊朗之间的新会谈。


Let us be clear: there is no military solution to this problem.	我们必须清楚：没有军事手段能解决这个问题。


Military intervention would merely further complicate the issue, while creating new layers of conflict in our region and beyond.	军事干预只会进一步使问题复杂化，并在本地区和其他地区制造新型冲突。


In this and other matters, Turkey strives to act as a “virtuous power,” which requires us to align our national interests with values such as justice, democracy, and human dignity, and to achieve our foreign-policy goals through mutual cooperation rather than coercion.	在这个问题和其他事项上，土耳其努力充当一个“良性的权力”。 这就要求我们的国家利益须同价值观（包括正义、民主和人类尊严）相合，并通过合作而非胁迫，实现我们的外交政策目标。


Effective multilateralism is a key facet of this vision.	有效的多边主义是这一构想的关键之一。


Turkey served as a member of the United Nations Security Council in 2009-2010, and is now seeking another term in 2015-2016.	土耳其曾在2009-2010年联合国安理会的成员，现正寻求2015-2016的另一任期。


Given the crucial importance of developments in our part of the world, Turkey’s contribution to the Council’s work promises to be highly valuable.	鉴于我们对本地区，即世界一部分的发展至关重要，土耳其的贡献对安理会职责的实现，是非常宝贵的。


In 2015, moreover, we will assume the presidency of the G-20, and we are committed to using our means and capabilities to make it a more effective organ of global governance.	此外，土耳其将在2015年承担G-20主席。 我们承诺运用手段和能力，使其成为更有效的全球治理机构。


Turkey’s internal transformation over the past decade has placed it in an ideal position to benefit the region – and thus the global community.	经过十年的内部改造，土耳其已准备好为本地区，进而为全球社会做出贡献。


While we have accomplished much already, more is required of us.	虽然我们已经完成了许多，但更多的成就需要我们去实现。


Given the challenges of our neighborhood, and the region’s central role in global affairs, Turkey will not refrain from taking on new responsibilities.	考虑到我们邻国面临的挑战以及本地区在全球事务中的核心作用，土耳其不会在新的责任面前退却。


Erdoğan’s Kurdish Gambit	埃尔多安的库尔德算盘


ISTANBUL – Conflict in the Middle East threatens not only the security of many of its states, but also their continued existence.	伊斯坦布尔—中东的冲突不仅威胁着该地区诸多国家的安全，也威胁着它们的生存。


Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and others, now gripped by sectarian fighting, risk fragmenting into ethnic sub-states, transforming a region whose political geography was drawn nearly a century ago.	叙利亚、伊拉克、黎巴嫩和其他国家目前无不保守宗派之争困扰，有可能依民族分裂为多个小国，改变这个政治地理形成于近一百年前的地区。


Surveying the regional scene, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has conceived of an audacious plan to enhance Turkey’s regional standing and extend his own political dominance at home.	土耳其总理埃尔多安在论述地区现状时提出了一个大胆的计划，欲强化土耳其的地区地位并扩大其在国内的政治主导力。


Facing the end of a self-imposed three-term limit as prime minister, he is intent on changing the Turkish constitution to introduce a presidential system – with himself on top as the first incumbent to wield much-enlarged power.	埃尔多安即将面临他自己制定的三个总理任期时限，他想修改土耳其宪法，引入总统制——由他自己领导第一任内阁，获得远比现在更大的权力。


Erdoğan’s plan, however, depends on ending Turkey’s 30-year conflict with its own Kurdish population.	然而，埃尔多安的计划取决于中止土耳其与其国内库尔德人的30年冲突史。


As a result, the Erdoğan government has decided on negotiations with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), the armed Kurdish resistance movement.	因此，埃尔多安政府决定与被囚的库尔德工党（Kurdish Worker’s Party，PKK，库尔德人武装反抗运动）领袖奥贾兰（Abdullah Ocalan）谈判。


The hope is to agree on a new, more liberal constitution that will strengthen the rights of Turkey’s largest ethnic minority and include substantial devolution of power to regional governments.	埃尔多安的算盘是就新的更自由的宪法达成一致，新宪法将强化土耳其第一大少数民族的权利，将大量权力移交给地区政府。


In return, the PKK is expected to end its three-decade-long fight against the Turkish state.	作为回报，PKK要结束其三十年反土耳其国斗争。


On March 21, at a mass rally attended by almost one million people in the southeastern Turkish city of Diyarbakir, Ocalan delivered a message of peace from his prison cell.	3月21日近一百万人在土耳其东南部城市迪亚巴克尔（Diyarbakir）举行群众集会，奥贾兰在狱中向集会人群传达了和平信息。


He called for the end to armed struggle, and invited the PKK’s fighters to leave the country.	他呼吁结束武装斗争，并请PKK斗士们离开土耳其。


For Erdoğan, the stakes could not be higher.	对埃尔多安来说，可谓成败在此一举。


Erdoğan envisions putting the constitutional changes and the terms of peace to a national referendum, a linkage that would transform Turkish politics.	埃尔多安着眼于让全民公投决定修改宪法和和平条款，这将改变土耳其政局。


If the negotiations succeed, he will be remembered for his historic role in bringing peace, and will likely stand a better chance of realizing his presidential ambition, having gained parliamentary support for revising the constitution from the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party.	如果谈判成功，他将因带来和平而被历史铭记，也将更有可能实现其总统野心，赢得库尔德和平民主党（Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party）的议会支持。


If negotiations fail, however, Erdoğan will be held responsible for any deterioration in the security environment that results.	但是，如果谈判失败，埃尔多安将为由此导致的任何安全环境恶化状况负责。


A recently leaked account of Ocalan’s strategy highlights the risk, for it cites the PKK leader as threatening the government with full-scale war.	一份最近泄出的奥贾兰战略报告强调了这一风险，报告说，PKK领袖以全面战争威胁政府。


At the same time, the Turkish government is pursuing a separate path of negotiations, through a rapprochement with another Kurdish authority – the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq.	与此同时，土耳其政府在追求单独的谈判路径，即通过与另一大库尔德当局——位于伊拉克北部的库尔德地区政府（Kurdish Regional Government，KRG）建立友好关系实现。


The grand vision is to integrate Iraqi Kurdistan into the Turkish economy.	土耳其政府的宏大目标是让伊拉克库尔德人融入土耳其经济。


Turkey already supplies most of the KRG economy’s imports, which accounted for 70% of Turkey’s almost $11 billion in exports to Iraq last year.	土耳其提供着KRG经济的大部分进口品，这项出口占据去年土耳其向伊拉克总出口额（近110亿美元）的七成。


But it is the incipient energy deal between Turkey and the KRG that is set to build the foundation for a real strategic alliance.	但土耳其和KRG之间的初步能源交易才是建立真正盟友关系的基础。


The undisclosed deal is believed to grant Turkey substantial concessions to explore new oil and gas fields in northern Iraq, as well as preferential rates for energy exports to Turkey.	这一尚未披露的交易据信将向土耳其做出巨大妥协，允许其在伊拉克北部开采新油气田，并对出口土耳其的能源实行优惠价。


In return, Turkey is to help the KRG build pipeline infrastructure that will allow oil and gas to be exported to Turkey without relying on Iraq’s national pipeline, which is controlled by the central government in Baghdad.	作为回报，土耳其将帮助KRG建设输油管道基础工程，出口土耳其的油气将不必依赖伊拉克国有管道，后者控制在巴格达中央政府手中。


Within the Turkish government, this opening is viewed as an immense opportunity to reduce Turkey’s heavy dependence on energy imports.	在土耳其政府内部，这一开端被视为减少土耳其严重依赖能源进口的良机。


In addition to securing energy supplies, the deal would help Turkey to overcome its chronic current-account deficit: roughly 70% of the country’s $84 billion trade deficit is due to the import bill for energy supplies.	除了保证能源供应，这项交易还将有助于土耳其克服长期存在的经常项目赤字：在该国840亿美元的贸易赤字中，大约七成可以归因于进口能源。


For the KRG, the deal would secure the region’s future economic wealth without holding it hostage to an increasingly unsympathetic Iraqi government.	对KRG来说，这项交易能够在不必沦为日渐冷酷的伊拉克政府的人质的情况下保证地区未来经济财富。


Under Iraq’s constitution, the Kurdish region is entitled to 17% of the country’s oil and gas revenues.	根据伊拉克宪法，库尔德地区可获得该国10%的油气收入。


But the distribution of proceeds from hydrocarbons is irregular, and the central government has accumulated significant arrears.	但油气收入的分配是无规律的，中央政府已经积累了巨额拖欠。


The KRG hopes that a deal with Turkey would allow it to obtain more regular and predictable hydrocarbon revenues.	KRG希望与土耳其的交易能让其获得更稳定、更可预计的油气收入。


But the United States remains adamantly opposed to such a deal between Turkey and the KRG, claiming that it would undermine Iraq’s stability and fuel secessionist tendencies in the north.	但美国仍然坚决反对土耳其和KRG做这笔交易，宣称这会破坏伊拉克的稳定，助长北部分裂主义者的气焰。


In late February, during his overseas trip, which included a stop in Ankara, US Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated these concerns in his talks with his Turkish counterparts.	2月末，美国国务卿克里在其海外之旅中造访了安卡拉，他在与埃尔多安的会晤中重申了这一担忧。


America’s fears are not shared in Turkish government circles, where the deals between the US oil giants Exxon and Chevron and the KRG are seen as proof that America is more concerned about its share of the pie in northern Iraq than it is about alleged threats to that country’s stability.	土耳其政府圈对美国的担忧并不认同，在他们看来，美国石油巨头埃克森和雪佛龙与KRG的交易证明，美国更关心的是其在伊拉克北部的利益，而不是它所宣称的伊拉克的稳定。


Not surprisingly, Erdoğan’s government has decided to pay little heed to US government concerns.	毫不奇怪，埃尔多安政府决定不把美国政府的担忧当回事。


The sectarian strains that are now rending societies across the Middle East are likely to change the regional map.	如今困扰整个中东社会的宗派之争可能会改变地区版图。


Erdoğan has now developed a plan that would take advantage of this development, ensure his political control, and lock in energy security for his country.	如今，埃尔多安已经抛出了利用这一发展趋势、确保其政治控制力并为其国家锁定能源安全的计划。


He envisions a new regional order under Turkish leadership, based on a realignment between Turks and Kurds that underpins a strategic partnership for exploiting the region’s last untapped energy resources.	他的着眼点是土耳其领导下的地区秩序，其基础是土耳其人和库尔德人的联盟，该联盟有助于巩固开发该地区最后一片能源处女地的战略合作伙伴关系。


Turkey’s Transformation	土耳其的转型


Abdullah Gül’s election as Turkey’s 11th president marks a watershed in the country’s history.	阿卜杜拉·居尔当选为土耳其的第十一任总统标志着该国历史上一个分水岭的出现。


In July, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) – religiously conservative but economically liberal – won a landslide in parliamentary elections called after the military balked at seeing Gül become president.	在七月，执政的正义与发展党(AKP)—一个宗教上保守但经济上却开明的政党—在国会选举中获得了压倒性的胜利。 这次选举是在军方企图阻挠居尔成为总统之后进行的。


That victory, combined with Gül’s election, confirm the AKP’s emergence as a party of realignment, and that, despite an upsurge of xenophobic nationalism, Turks wanted to integrate with the European Union.	这场胜利，与居尔的当选一起确认了AKP作为一个再结盟政党的出现，同时也证明了尽管恐外民族主义在抬头，但土耳其人仍然想加入欧盟。


Last April, Gül’s candidacy brought a threat of a coup from the military, precipitating the recent elections.	去年四月，居尔的总统候选人资格引发了军方的政变威胁，也促成了最近的大选。


Thus, the electorate also made it clear that it no longer wanted the military involved in domestic politics, rejecting the generals’ warnings that the AKP would lead the country into the darkness of theocratic rule.	因此，选民们清楚地表明了他们不再想让军方介入内政，抵制了将军们关于AKP会将土耳其引入神权统治的黑暗的警告。


The fierce debate concerning the presidency underscored the symbolic significance of the post in Turkey’s domestic balance of power.	关于总统资格的激烈辩论也凸现了这一职位在土耳其国内权力平衡当中的象征意义。


The headscarf that Gül’s wife wears for religious reasons was seen as an assault on Turkey’s sacrosanct principle of secularism.	居尔的夫人出于宗教原因所佩戴的头巾被看作是对土耳其不容侵犯的世俗主义原则的攻击。


Indeed, outgoing President Ahmet Necdet Sezer refused to invite the wives of AKP deputies who covered their hair to state dinners and Republic Day receptions.	确实，态度明确的阿赫迈特·内吉代特·塞泽尔总统就拒绝邀请包裹头巾的AKP要员的妻子们出席国宴和共和日招待会。


The president obviously represents the state, but he is not a mere figurehead.	总统显然代表着国家，但他不仅仅只是一个傀儡。


After all, he sits in Ataturk’s chair.	毕竟，他坐在凯末尔的宝座上。


He has wide-ranging powers, including the authority to make senior government appointments.	他拥有广泛的权力，包括任命政府的高层官员。


He appoints judges to high courts and members to the Higher Educational Council (YOK).	他还能任命高等法院的法官和高等教育委员(YOK)会成员。


He selects the presidents of state universities from a list submitted by the YOK.	他从YOK所提交的名单中甄选国立大学的校长。


In times of peace, he is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.	在和平时期，他是武装部队的最高统帅。


This is why the crisis over the presidential election was actually a crisis of the constitutional order installed by the military when it ruled from 1980-1983.	这也就是为什么说总统大选危机其实是在1980-1983年间统治土耳其的军方所建立的宪法秩序的危机。


That constitution – unlike Ataturk’s – was written by and for the military on the assumption that the Cold War would never end, and that the president would always be either a military person or someone close to the military.	那一部宪法—与凯末尔的宪法不同—是由军方起草并为军方自身利益而出台的。 它的假设前提是“冷战”永不结束，且总统会一直是军人或与军方有密切联系的人。


But the Cold War is long over, and a lot has since changed in Turkey.	但冷战早已结束，自那时起土耳其也发生了很大的变化。


An IMF-supported program in 2001 unleashed rapid economic growth, based on Turkey’s gradual but definitive transformation into a market economy.	在土耳其循序渐进但又目标明确地向市场经济转型的基础之上，由国际货币基金组织支持的一项改革计划从2001年起就推动了经济的快速发展。


At the same time, Turkey moved decisively onto the path of political and administrative reform in order to start EU accession negotiations.	与此同时，土耳其坚定地朝着政治与行政改革的方向前进以启动与欧盟的入盟谈判。


Moreover, Turkey’s economic and social transformation brought forth a new elite.	此外，土耳其的经济与社会转型催生了一个新的精英阶层。


The AKP came to represent this new elite and its quest for political power.	AKP成为这个新精英阶层及其政治权利诉求的代表。


Many foreign commentators described the presidential and parliamentary elections as a contest between Turkey’s secular past and a putative Islamist future.	许多外国评论家都将这次的总统和国会大选看作是土耳其世俗的过去和可能的伊斯兰主义未来之间的较量。


However, the contest is more accurately seen as one between an open and an introverted Turkey; between civilian, democratic rule and military tutelage; and between a globalizing and a protectionist economy.	然而，这场较量在更准确的层面上应该被看作是发生在开放和保守的土耳其之间； 在平民、民主治理和军队监护之间；


The AKP’s support came from both the winners and losers of globalization, from conservative middle Anatolia and cosmopolitan Istanbul, from the nationalist Black Sea region and the predominantly Kurdish Southeast.	在全球化和保护主义的经济模式之间。 对AKP的支持同时来自于全球化的赢家和输家，来自于保守的中部安纳托利亚和国际化的伊斯坦布尔，来自于民族主义的黑海地区和以库尔德人为主的西南部地区。


Following the AKP’s parliamentary election victory in July, and now with the election of Gül, many observers predicted military intervention.	在AKP七月的国会选举胜利和现在的居尔当选总统之后，许多观察家都预测了军方的干预。


Although there is no doubt that the military, as the bastion of the secular establishment, does not like these results, a coup is virtually out of the question.	虽然军方作为世俗政权的堡垒肯定不喜欢这样的结果，但发动政变的可能性却也几乎为零。


One reason is that relations between the military and the Islamist movement are more complicated than they appear.	原因之一是军方与伊斯兰运动之间的关系比表面上要复杂得多。


Back in 1997, when the military pushed the then Islamist-led government of Necmettin Erbakan out of power, the Islamist movement fractured.	在1997年，当军方迫使伊斯兰主义者领导的埃尔巴坎政府下台时，伊斯兰运动也发生了分化。


The younger, more modern, and outward-looking elements broke away from the traditional, anti-western, anti-Semitic older generation.	较为年轻、更现代和外向型的骨干与传统的、反西方、反犹太的老一代分道扬镳。


This year’s crisis led Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the prime minister, to complete the transformation of the AKP away from doctrinaire Islamism.	这一年的危机促使总理埃尔多安完成了使AKP脱离教条主义伊斯兰教的转变。


Following the AKP’s victory in July, Erdoğan initially sought to avoid antagonizing the military by not renewing Gül’s presidential candidacy.	在AKP的七月胜利之后，埃尔多安起初为了避免触怒军方而拒绝恢复居尔的候选人资格。


Yet Gül insisted, and the AKP united behind him.	但居尔坚持不懈并得到了AKP的鼎力支持。


As a result, Turkey is entering uncharted waters.	其结果是使土耳其进入了一段未知的航程。


Gül will be an engaged president.	居尔将是一位全心投入的总统。


As Turkey faces many regional challenges, his experience as foreign minister ought to serve him well.	他担任外长的经验肯定会在解决土耳其所面临的地区性挑战方面发挥巨大作用。


But an engaged and active president may cause tension with the prime minister who, in the Turkish system, is the real chief executive.	但一位投入和活跃的总统可能会使自己与总理之间的关系紧张。 而后者才是土耳其政体中真正的行政首脑。


Gül’s ascent to the presidency should consolidate the transformation of Turkish politics.	居尔出任总统应该强化土耳其政治的转型。


Turkey has integrated its Islamist movement into the political mainstream.	土耳其已经将其伊斯兰运动纳入了政治主流。


Representatives of an economically dynamic and socially conservative heartland are moving Turkey toward reform.	在经济层面上激进而社会层面上保守的内陆地区的代表正将土耳其推进改革大潮。


The republican project of modernization will continue, with a wider mobilization of society.	在调动更广泛的社会参与中，现代化的共和事业将继续前进。


Thus, Turkey will continue its unprecedented amalgam of Islam, capitalism, and secular liberal democracy.	如此，土耳其将会推进其前所未有的伊斯兰教、资本主义和世俗自由民主的多元混合。


As unlikely as it may seem in the wake of the crisis over Gül’s candidacy, so far Turkey is managing this challenge well.	虽然在居尔的候选人危机之后有点令人难以置信，但到目前为止土耳其在应对这一挑战方面还是表现不错的。


Turkey: The New Indispensable Nation	土耳其：无可替代的新参与者


ANKARA – Turkey put its imprint as one of the most influential countries not only on 2010, but on the first decade of the third millennium.	发自安卡拉——土耳其队对全世界所构成的巨大影响并不仅限于2010年，而是贯穿了人类第三个千年的头十年。


At the start of the new decade, too, Turkey’s geopolitical position, rich historical heritage, cultural depth, well-educated young population, ever-strengthening democracy, growing economy, and constructive foreign policy make it an indispensable country in a world transformed by rapid globalization.	在2011这个未来十年的起点上，土耳其以其独特的地缘政治位置、丰富的历史遗产、厚重的文化、受过良好教育的年轻人口、进一步强化的民主制度，不断发展的经济以及建设性的外交政策，必将晋身成为世界极速全球化过程中一位不可或缺的参与者


By making use of all of its assets, Turkey is contributing to regional stability and peace and working towards a global order based on justice, equality, and transparency.	凭借着上述优势，土耳其不但为其所在区域的和平稳定贡献良多，还在构建一个公正，平等和透明的全球秩序方面不遗余力。


As an emerging power, Turkey will continue to realize its own potential and simultaneously contribute to global peace.	作为一支新兴势力，土耳其将继续发挥自身潜力并为全球和平贡献自己的力量。


The chaotic conditions of the post-Cold War world have made civil wars, occupations, nuclear armament, and human trafficking chronic problems.	冷战后世界的混乱状况使得内战、侵略，核武器和人口买卖成为挥之不去的梦魇。


While globalization offers new opportunities, it also causes new global problems and deepens the inequalities embedded in the world order.	在全球化为我们提供了新机遇的同时，它也催生了新的全球性问题并加深了根植于世界秩序中的不平等状况。


It is no longer possible to sustain the current world order, which, based as it is on a skewed notion of center-periphery relations, merely produces injustice and inequality.	而当前这个构筑于错误的核心-外围国际关系理论之上的世界秩序只能催生不公正和不平等，也无法再继续维持下去了。


Turkey seeks to contribute to regional and global peace by facilitating democratic reforms domestically and implementing a principled foreign policy.	通过对内推行民主改革，对外坚持有原则的外交政策，土耳其正在为区域和世界和平作出自己的贡献。


As a NATO member, Turkey aims to become a full member of the European Union and establish cordial relations with all of its southern and eastern neighbors.	作为北约成员国，土耳其致力于成为欧盟正式成员国并与本国西南部邻邦建立了良好关系。


Turkey’s posture – looking both East and West – is neither paradoxical nor inconsistent.	土耳其的外交态度虽然同时形成于东西两方，但却成功避免了自相矛盾或是意见不一。


On the contrary, Turkey’s multidimensional geopolitical position is an asset for the region.	相反，本国横跨多边的地缘政治位置堪称所在区域的宝贵财富。


There are few countries that can play such a critical role.	很少国家能扮演这一如此重要的角色。


Turkey constitutes a new synthesis because of its ability to link such diverse qualities and backgrounds. Turkey is thus capable of overcoming the dichotomies of East-West, Europe-Middle East, and North-South.	土耳其拥有将不同特性和背景连结为一的能力，并因此构建了一个新的结合体，克服了那些所谓东方-西方，欧洲-中东以及南-北等种种二元对立现象。


Indeed, this capacity is essential because we need to leave behind the Manichean disagreements, conflicts, and fears of the Cold War era.	而这种能力之所以如此重要，是因为我们必须抛弃从前那种对立，冲突以及对冷战时代的恐惧思维。


Those who see the world through those old, fearful lenses have difficulty understanding Turkey’s rising profile and dynamism.	对于那些依旧以过时且充满恐惧的眼光看待这个世界的人来说，土耳其的崛起和活力堪称不解之谜。


But the realities of the twenty-first century necessitate a multi-dimensional and inclusive political perspective.	但21世界的现实却亟需我们持有一种多元且包容的政治态度。


Acting on these principles, Turkey is following a proactive foreign policy stretching from the Balkans to the Middle East and the Caucasus.	在这些原则的指导之下，土耳其奉行了一个覆盖巴尔干-中东-高加索一线地区的积极对外交政策。


This geography is Turkey’s natural historical and cultural hinterland.	这些区域都是土耳其的传统历史和文化腹地。


Turkey’s cultural and historical links with the peoples of these regions are deep and conducive to regional peace.	土耳其与该地区人民之间有着深厚的历史和文化联系，而这对区域和平也是有益的。


Turkey cannot remain indifferent to this geography, for it stands at the center of it.	位处这广大区域的中心，土耳其自然也不可能无视自身所处的地理现实。


History clearly shows that it is impossible to establish and sustain global peace without ensuring peace and stability in the Balkans and the Middle East.	历史已经清楚地表明：如果无法保证巴尔干和中东地区的和平与稳定，那么世界和平也只能是镜花水月。


Turkey is following a constructive and inclusive policy for these regions, which are marked by remarkable models of cohabitation, science, arts, culture, and civilization.	土耳其针对该区域推动了建设性和包容性的外交政策，其中包含了一系列包括民族共存、科学、艺术，文化和文明在内的先进模式。


Due to our recent efforts, the wounds of the Bosnian war are being healed, facilitating peace and stability among Balkan peoples.	在我们最近的努力之下，波斯尼亚战争的伤痕正在逐渐愈合，使和平和稳定得以降临在巴尔干人民身上。


Turkey’s efforts are also helping to prevent wars in the Middle East, and our intense efforts have helped keep a diplomatic track open on the Iranian nuclear issue.	土耳其的努力也有助于制止在中东地区爆发战争，而我们的不懈工作则为伊朗核问题的解决保留了一条外交途径。


Moreover, we are helping to facilitate political stability in Iraq and helping the NATO mission in Afghanistan.	此外，我们也帮助维持伊拉克的政治稳定并为北约部队的阿富汗行动提供协助。


And, of paramount importance, Turkey is making enormous efforts to help establish an independent and sustainable Palestinian state – efforts that are appreciated by Turkey’s Western and Eastern friends alike.	最重要的是，土耳其做了大量的工作去推动建立一个独立且可持续运作的巴勒斯坦国——而此举也同时得到了东西方友邦的赞赏。


Today, Turkey is following a policy that represents a sense of justice in the Middle East, and is working toward the removal of artificial borders and walls among the region’s peoples.	今天，土耳其正在中东执行一种拥有正义感的政策，并致力于移除横亘在该地区人民之间的所有人造边界和围墙。


We desire to live in a region where the dignity of every person is respected. That is why we have objected to Israel’s aggression in and blockade of Gaza, and will continue to do so.	我们希望能生活在一个所有人的尊严都能得到尊重的地区，而这也是我们为何一直反对以色列侵略和封锁加沙地区的原因。


We know that it is not possible to attain global peace unless we establish sustainable peace in the Middle East, which requires resolving the Palestinian question.	我们清楚地意识到：除非能实现中东和平，否则世界和平永远遥不可及，而前者的实现则需先解决巴勒斯坦问题。


Therefore, we urge Israel and all other countries involved to follow constructive and peaceful policies.	因此我们敦促以色列和所有其他国家都参与到这个建设性的和平政策中来。


Motivated by these principles, Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and I showed through our “Alliance of Civilizations Initiative” in 2004 that cultural, historic, and religious differences are no reason for conflict.	在这些原则的推动之下，西班牙总理何塞·路易斯·罗德里格斯·萨帕特罗和我本人于2004年共同推动的“文明联盟倡议”已经表明了文化，历史和宗教差异并不是爆发冲突的理由。


The basis for our approach to humanity is the following principle of the famous Turkish poet Yunus Emre: “We love and respect the created because of the Creator.”	而我们这种对人道主义的探索其实是根源于土耳其著名诗人尤努斯·埃姆莱（Yunus Emre）的诗句：“我们爱与尊重造物主所创造的一切。 ”


As a result, we stand firmly opposed to discrimination against any society, religion, sect, culture, or country.	因此我们坚决反对一切针对任何社会、宗教、教派，文化和国家的歧视。


I consider anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, and prejudice against Christianity crimes against humanity, whose common values and ethical rules oblige us to confront and reject all forms of discrimination.	我认为反犹太主义，仇视伊斯兰或是对基督教的偏见都是反人道的罪恶，而关于人道的共同价值观和道德准则都要求我们与一切形式的歧视作斗争。


Besides its cultural, historic, and diplomatic values, Turkey’s vibrant economy has become a source of stability and welfare.	除了其文化，历史和外交价值观之外，土耳其蓬勃发展的经济也成为其稳定和富饶的源泉。


When my party took office in 2002, the Turkish economy totaled around $250 billion. Today, Turkey’s annual GDP has reached $800 billion, making it Europe’s sixth largest economy and the 17th largest in the world.	当我所属的党派于2002年接管政权时，土耳其的经济总量约为2500亿美元，如今土耳其的年均GDP已达8000亿美元，成为欧洲排名第6，全球位列第17的经济体。


It has also been one of the least impacted by the global economic crisis, with growing foreign trade, a strong banking system, and diverse and prospering small and medium-size enterprises.	土耳其是受世界金融危机影响最小的几个国家之一，对外贸易持续增长，银行系统稳健，同时拥有大量兴旺发达的中小企业。


Thus, the Turkish economy returned to its pre-crisis levels in 2010.	因此土耳其经济在2010年就恢复到了危机前的水平。


All of these qualities have transformed Turkey into an attractive place for business, media, artists, diplomats, students, and non-governmental organizations from around the world.	所有这些特质都使土耳对全世界商业、媒体、艺术家、外交官，学生和非政府组织都充满了吸引力。


Turkey’s ever-increasing soft power is becoming one of its most significant traits, which we will continue to use to enhance regional and global peace.	土耳其不断增长的软实力已经成为其最为著名的一张名片，而我们也借助它来不断推动区域和世界和平。


The impact of globalization has brought about a rebalancing of power, but the demand for justice, transparency, and legitimacy remains constant.	全球化的重新调整了全球势力的均衡，但对公正，透明和合法性的追求一如既往。


The global problems of our times necessitate cooperation, political will, and sacrifice. That is why we are following a proactive policy in multilateral institutions to facilitate an equitable sharing of our world’s resources.	我们这个时代的全球问题需要合作，政治决心和牺牲才能得到解决，而这也是我们为何奉行一个积极的多边机制以推动对全球资源的公平共享。


Turkey will continue to work toward a just and equitable global order in 2011 and beyond.	土耳其将在2011年及未来继续推动一个公平合理的全球秩序。


This is a responsibility emanating from our history, geography, and the universal values that we hold.	而这个责任的来源，正是我们所拥有的历史，地缘政治和普世价值。


Turkey to the EU’s Rescue	让土耳其来拯救欧盟


LAUSANNE – The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference was an unmitigated disaster for the European Union. Instead of the EU claiming center stage, as its leaders assumed it would, the key actors were the United States, Brazil, South Africa, India, and China.	发自瑞士洛桑 —— 对欧盟来说，哥本哈根气候变化会议堪称一场货真价实的灾难。 当时欧盟的列位首脑都认为欧盟将是整场大会的主角，谁知真正唱主角的却是美国、巴西、南非，印度和中国这几个国家，甚至在最后达成协议时都没请欧盟的代表到场。


Indeed, when the accord was reached, the EU was not even in the room. Copenhagen exposed the demise of Europe not only as a global power, but even as a global arbiter.	而在哥本哈根发生的一切都暴露出一个问题，那就是欧盟不仅算不上世界强权，甚至连当个国际调停人都不够格。


So what is the EU left with?	那究竟欧盟手里还有什么本钱？


As its “hard power” ebbs, its “soft power,” as illustrated by the Copenhagen summit, seems to be very weak.	它的“硬实力”正逐渐衰落，此外在哥本哈根峰会上展现的“软实力”似乎也赢弱不堪。


This in part arises from a failure to provide the EU with political power.	而这在某种程度上正是源自于一种无法赋予欧盟以政治权力的失败。


The Lisbon Treaty was a compromise constitutional arrangement that would nevertheless give the EU greater weight and authority precisely for occasions such as the Copenhagen summit, when global issues are addressed.	作为一项妥协性的宪政安排，《里斯本条约》无法在哥本哈根这类处理世界事务的场合给予欧盟更多 合适的 权重和权威。


Though multiple European actors on the world stage were more than justified in the old days, this is no longer the case.	虽然在世界舞台上欧洲的身影比从前出现得更为频密，但这也起不到什么作用。


With China, India, the US, Indonesia, Brazil, and other major global players speaking with one voice, Europe could no longer afford a cacophony of voices.	当中国，美国，印尼、巴西和其它全球势力都各自发出一种统一的声音之时，欧洲却已经无法承受自己内部那些不和谐的杂音了。


But in Copenhagen, the structure established by the Lisbon Treaty failed.	而在哥本哈根，《里斯本条约》所构建的那一套架构则毫无用武之地。


Beyond the failure in Copenhagen, the EU has several other problems.	但除了在哥本哈根遭受的失败以外，还有其它几个难题正在困扰着欧盟。


It tends to be perceived globally as supercilious, petulant, and prim. Its know-it-all attitude grates almost everywhere.	如今在全世界人眼中，欧盟显得傲慢，脾气古怪又一本正经，而它那种自以为无所不知的态度在哪里都不受欢迎。


With only 7% of the world’s population (and rapidly dwindling) and composed mainly of post-industrial low-growth economies, the EU is increasingly seen as marginal.	欧盟人口只占全世界的 7% （况且这一比例正迅速下降）而又主要由后工业时代的低增长经济体组成，因此也正逐渐被视为一个微不足道的部分。


Europeans do not realize how little interest in “European affairs” there is in Seoul, Sydney, São Paolo, or San Francisco.	此外欧洲人也并未意识到“欧洲事务”对首尔、悉尼、圣保罗和旧金山等地的利益来说究竟有多么渺小。


There is a growing general global consensus that Europe is a pompous old has-been.	更何况全球正逐渐形成某种共识，那就是欧洲只不过是个自吹自擂的遗老遗少。


There are many causes for the decline of the EU’s global position and prestige, one of which has been the way in which the Union has evolved as an aloof and bureaucratic citadel.	导致欧盟国际地位和声誉下滑的原因很多，其中一个原因就是欧盟正逐渐退化成一座偏远而又官僚气息浓厚的孤城。


This is unfortunate, because, despite its problems, the EU does have much to offer. But there seems little prospect for a European revival.	这是非常不幸的，因为除了自身的那些问题之外，欧盟能给予大家的好处还有很多。


The EU will continue to decline and become increasingly marginalized as it fails to find the spirit or the structure to adjust to the profound transformations and challenges of the twenty-first century.	但欧洲复兴的前景似乎非常黯淡，如果不能寻找到足以适应 21 世纪深刻转型和变革所需要的精神或架构的话，那么欧洲就将继续衰落，继续被边缘化。


There is one thing, however, that could revive the EU, give it much enhanced global respectability, and make it an “interesting” place, as well as ensure a return to the international limelight: Turkey’s admission as a full member.	然而有一样东西可以重振欧洲，给予其更崇高的全球声誉，将其变成一个“利益攸关”之地，同时还能确保其重新成为国际的焦点； 那就是将欧盟正式成员国资格赋予土耳其。


The debate about whether Turkey is European is absurd. It is impossible to airbrush Turkey out of European history.	如果还要争论土耳其究竟是否属于欧洲的话，那简直是荒谬，因为根本不可能从欧洲历史中抹去土耳其的身影。


Apart from being an integral part of Europe, membership for Turkey, with its young and dynamic population, would provide a great fillip for Europe’s aging demographic profile.	而除了成为欧洲一个整合的部分之外，土耳其的正式成员国资格，以及其国内年轻而充满活力的人口，都将为欧洲的老龄化困境提供极好的裨益。


In a highly complex and diverse world, the EU stands out for its homogeneity.	此外，在这个高度复杂和多样性的世界上，欧盟却依然在努力维护其单一性。


While the EU flatters itself on diversity, it is in fact one of the least diverse regions of the world.	当欧洲为自身的多样性而洋洋自得之时，它其实是全世界最缺乏多样性的地区。


There is more ethnic diversity in, say, Malaysia than in the entire EU.	比如仅仅是马来西亚一个国家的民族多样性就超过欧盟，而东南亚联盟作为一个整体，虽然在人口（ 5.


ASEAN as a whole, with a population of 580 million, is not significantly bigger than the EU (with 500 million), yet it encompasses an infinitely greater degree of ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and religious diversity.	8 亿）上并不比欧盟（ 5 亿）多多少，但前者在民族，语言，文化和宗教方面的多样性却比后者大了几乎无限倍。


With Turkey as a member, the EU would gain legitimacy as a more “normal” world region.	因此如果将土耳其吸纳为成员的话，欧盟将作为一个更为“正常”的区域而获得更多的政治合法性。


By admitting Turkey, with the world’s fifth-largest Muslim population (after Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India), the EU would be in a position to establish close ties with the world’s 1.8 billion Muslims, and could become a credible voice on reform within the Islamic world. Turkish membership in the Union would also greatly ease the assimilation of the EU’s own Muslim minorities.	通过承认土耳其这个拥有全世界第五大穆斯林人口（居印尼，巴基斯坦，孟加拉和印度之后）的国家，欧盟将能与全世界 18 亿穆斯林建立更紧密的联系，并成为穆斯林世界内部变革中一把有公信力的声音，而土耳其的成员国资格也将极大地缓解欧盟内部穆斯林少数派遭到同化的境况。


EU lethargy and growing irrelevance in global public affairs owes much to Eurocentric political atavism.	可以看出，欧盟在全球公共事务方面的懈怠和日益的疏离，其实是源自于那种以欧洲为中心的政治老观念。


One potential benefit of the Copenhagen debacle could be that it forces the Union to wake up to the new world of the twenty-first century.	而哥本哈根惨败的其中一个潜在的好处，就是能够迫使欧盟在 21 世纪的新世界里幡然醒悟过来。


An EU with Turkey as a member would be far better situated to meet today’s challenges than an EU without Turkey.	很显然一个包含了土耳其的欧洲将比一个没有土耳其的欧洲更能应对当今的挑战。


But, unfortunately, Turkey, like much of the rest of the world, is rather turned off by the EU.	但不幸的是土耳其也跟全世界其他国家一样，对欧洲不太感冒。


Indeed, now it is the Union that will need to seduce the Turkish people, rather than the other way around.	而事实上，如今需要向土耳其抛媚眼的是欧盟，而不是反过来。


That seduction should begin this year, with an agenda that sets the process and timeframe for accession, to be followed by an EU-Turkey Treaty that confirms the country’s accession by 2020.	因此欧洲应当在今年立刻展开这种示好的举动，同时也要设立一个包括了相关程序和时间表的讨论议程，而这一切行动的最终目标，则是签订一项欧盟 - 土耳其双边条约，确保后者能在 2020 年并入欧盟。


Exit Afghanistan?	撤离阿富汗？


NEW DELHI – In his victory speech to a rapturous crowd in Chicago following his reelection, President Barack Obama affirmed that America’s “decade-long conflict” in Afghanistan will now end.	新德里—在向芝加哥狂热拥趸发表连任胜利演讲时，总统奥巴马确认美国在阿富汗“长达十年的冲突”将会结束。


The line was greeted with prolonged applause – and understandably so.	迎接这一表态的是经久不息的掌声——不难理解这是为什么。


In fact, this ill-advised war – launched on the basis of a United Nations Security Council resolution – has been grinding on for 11 years, making it the longest in American history.	事实上，这场错误的战争——因联合国安理会决议而发起——已经折磨了美国11年之久，成为美国历史上历时最长的战争。


At the beginning, the war was aimed at eliminating Al Qaeda, vanquishing the Taliban, and transforming Afghanistan into something resembling a Western-style nation-state.	这场战争的初始目标是清除基地组织，围剿塔利班，并把阿富汗变成类似西方国家的民族国家。


With none of these goals fully achieved, America’s intervention – like every other intervention in Afghanistan’s history – is ending unsatisfactorily.	这些目标一个也没有完全实现，美国的干预——与历史上其他对阿富汗的干预一样——在未取得令人满意的结果的情况下走向了终结。


As the curtain drops, two developments will greatly influence the withdrawal process and the ultimate outcome.	随着大幕的落下，两件大事将在很大程度上影响撤军过程和最终的结果。


The first is the management of the transition to Afghan control, which depends on an orderly withdrawal of American and NATO forces by 2014.	首先是阿富汗控制权的交接，这取决于2014年前美国和北约军队的有序撤离。


The second is the election, also to be held in 2014, of a new Afghan president – a process that needs to permit the United States and its NATO allies to claim plausibly that they are handing the country over to a legitimate government.	其次是选举，也将在2014年进行。 这次选举将选出新的阿富汗总统——美国及其北约盟友需要这样一个程序来振振有词地宣布它们把阿富汗交给了一个合法的政府。


For Afghanistan, ravaged by war without respite since the “Saur Revolution” of 1978, the endgame will be even more nerve-wracking.	对于自1978年“二月革命”以来一直饱受战争摧残的阿富汗来说，这场战争的谢幕更加令人头疼。


As the US military leaves, it will enter another period of political and strategic uncertainty, after almost a half-century of disorder and civil war.	随着美国军队的离开，它将陷入近半个世纪的无序和内战之后的另一次政治和战略不确定时期。


A previous period of such uncertainty was the spur to Pakistan’s creation of the Taliban, which proceeded to disrupt Afghanistan’s (and Pakistan’s) already-fragile social order.	上一次类似的不确定时期催生了塔利班在巴基斯坦的成立。 塔利班不断地干扰着阿富汗（和巴基斯坦）本来就十分脆弱的社会秩序。


Today, almost three generations of Afghans have lived from birth to adulthood without having known stability and peace.	如今，近三代阿富汗人在成长过程中不知稳定与和平为何物。


And, as a visiting American scholar/diplomat recently told me in a confidential conversation: “In the US, too, at least a generation of our children, from birth till the age of 15, have seen their country almost continuously at war.”	而一味访问阿富汗的学者/外交官最近对一次秘密对话告诉我：“在美国，至少我们的下一代从出生到15岁，他们的祖国一直在打仗。 ”


That is an arresting thought.	这值得深思。


It is against this bitter backdrop that a new Afghan president will be elected and the withdrawal of forces carried out.	在如此苦涩的背景下，阿富汗将选出新总统，美国和北约军队将撤出。


Will these two developments bring about a stable peace, or will Afghanistan succumb to instability once more?	这两大事件能带来稳定的和平吗？ 阿富汗会再次陷入动荡吗？


And what consequences are in store for the US following this war without victory or defeat?	这场无胜无败的战争会给美国带来怎样的后果？


Last May, Obama declared that the US had “turned the tide of war” in Afghanistan, an eerie echo of Richard Nixon’s rhetoric as he withdrew US forces from Vietnam.	去年5月，奥巴马宣布美国在阿富汗“扭转了战局”，这让人们想起了尼克松在将美军撤出越南前所说的话。


And, like Vietnam, will the US – exhausted and nearly bankrupted by the effort – see all of its supposed gains evaporate soon after it leaves?	与越南一样，美国——被战争拖得精疲力竭，几乎破产——会在离开后不久就看到其预期的成果蒸发殆尽吗？


After all, Al Qaeda, albeit weakened, remains capable of regenerating inside Afghanistan, where the Taliban remain dominant in the country’s east and south, as well as in neighboring North Waziristan in Pakistan.	毕竟，基地组织尽管有所削弱，仍然有能力重新打入阿富汗，而塔利班仍控制着阿富汗的东部和南部以及相邻的巴基斯坦北瓦济里斯坦。


Just how weakened America is in the region matters.	美国在该地区会衰弱到什么程度事关重大。


As the US strategist Daniel Twining has observed: “Over the coming four years, US leadership…will be essential” for “the consolidation of a wide-ranging strategic partnership with India,” as well as for efforts “to prevent Pakistan’s many pathologies…from spilling over in ways that undermine fundamental US (and Indian) interests.”	正如美国战略家推宁（Daniel Twining）所观察到的：“在未来四年中，美国的领导……”对“巩固与印度的广泛战略合作伙伴关系”以及对“防止巴基斯坦诸多弊端……以威胁美国（和印度）根本利益的方式溢出”的举措“至关重要”。


So where does this leave Afghanistan’s neighbors?	那么，这对于阿富汗邻邦来说意味着什么。


Deeply concerned.	深深的忧虑。


Our primary aim is the restoration of peace and, if not stability, an acceptable political equilibrium.	我们的首要目标是重塑和平以及可接受的政治均衡（如果不是稳定的话）。


Even if we did not incur the same costs as the US over the past decade – the hundreds of billions of dollars spent, and the many young people killed or injured – we have paid the price that regional uncertainty always imposes: lost trade, lost growth, refugees, and violence.	即使我们不致于承担美国在过去十年中的成本——数千亿美元加上无数年轻人的死伤——我们也要付出地区不确定性不可避免的代价：失去的贸易、失去的增长、难民，以及暴力。


In the face of these costs, the overblown and sometimes clearly dishonest claims about the war are an obscenity.	面临这些成本，关于这场战争的过分渲染以及显而易见的虚假宣告令人憎恶的。


This strategically myopic and militarily ill-conceived war was unwinnable from the beginning.	这场在政治上近视、在军事上计划拙劣的战争从一开始就不可能获得胜利。


As a result, Afghanistan will remain what it was: a violent and ungovernable tribal melange.	因此，阿富汗原来怎么样，将来仍将怎么样：一个暴力的、不可治理的部落联合体。


Indeed, across the region, apprehension is growing that when foreign troops leave, Afghanistan will again descend into civil war, ultimately bringing the Taliban back to power.	事实上，整个地区都弥漫着日益加深的疑虑：当外国军队离开后，阿富汗将再次陷入内战，塔利班将最终重新掌权。


That is why “bringing the troops home early” has become the prime objective of Western politicians who are engaged in the region.	这就是为何“及早撤军”成为关注该地区问题的西方政治家的主要反对对象。


The West needs to get out before the bloodletting starts again in earnest.	西方需要在流血再次全面重启之前离开。


My fear is that we have not seen the last of Al Qaeda or the Taliban.	我担心我们并没有看到基地组织和塔利班的末日。


As a neighboring country, India would face disturbing consequences if they returned to power in Afghanistan, as would Iran, which would not sit idly by if sectarian strife intensified and the Shia became targets of a resurgent Taliban.	作为一个邻国，如果它们在阿富汗重新掌权，印度将面临灾难性的后果。 伊朗亦然，如果宗派之争恶化，什叶派成为死灰复燃的塔利班的目标，伊朗也决不能事不关己高高高挂起了。


Other neighbors would also pay a price should the Taliban’s seemingly invariable return turn bloody, however immune they believe they are.	如果塔利班不可阻挡的卷土重来造成流血冲突，那么其他邻国也将付出代价，尽管它们自认为可以独善其身。


China, which has invested billions of dollars in developing Afghanistan’s natural resources –investments protected, ironically, by the US – would be certain to experience greater unrest in Xinjiang Province, home to millions of disaffected Muslims.	中国在阿富汗有着数十亿美元的自然资源开发投资——讽刺的是，保护这些项目的乃是美国。 作为数百万心怀不满的穆斯林的家园，新疆自治区将肯定会经历更大的动荡。


But the country that will be most affected is Pakistan, which faces challenges to its territorial and political integrity.	但受影响最大的国家将是领土和政治完整性受到挑战的巴基斯坦。


The territorial challenge is, no doubt, a mushrooming anxiety; an innocuous remark by an American envoy about the Durand Line, which marks the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, drew sharp retorts from both countries.	毫无疑问，领土挑战是一个发展迅速的隐忧，一位美国特使关于阿富汗-巴基斯坦边界的杜兰德线的无伤大雅的玩笑引起了阿巴双方的严重抗议。


Afghanistan’s history of occupation by foreign troops and their eventual withdrawal has been repeated so many times that one wearies of repeating the tale.	在阿富汗，外国军队占领然后撤走的历史上演了一次又一次，阿富汗人民对此已经感到了厌倦。


Yet this history is the litmus test.	但如此历史只是一剂试剂。


With the US withdrawal, turmoil is bound to reemerge, and the entire region will again bear the consequences.	美国撤走后，动荡注定会死灰复燃，苦果将由整个地区来吞。


Turning North Korea Around	改变朝鲜的前进方向


SEOUL – Negotiations over the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula look set to resume.	首尔——围绕朝鲜半岛无核化的谈判似乎将会再度启动；


Sadly, they are unlikely to end soon. Talk of a “grand bargain” remains just that – talk.	不幸的是，这些谈判能在短期内结束的希望颇为渺茫，关于“大妥协”事宜的谈判仍将仅仅停留在口头之上。


Trust between North Korea and the United States, South Korea, and Japan is almost non-existent.	朝鲜与美、韩、日三国之间几乎无信任可言；


While all leaders – including North Korea’s Kim Jong Il – remain committed to denuclearization in public, none appears ready to risk much in terms of domestic politics to achieve that end.	尽管包括朝鲜最高领袖——金正日在内的各国领导人，都继续在公开场合对无核化施以承诺，但看起来却没有人愿意为了实现这一目标、而在国内政治方面冒上巨大的风险。


So the best the world can currently hope for is revived dialogue, an agreement to freeze the North’s Yongbyon nuclear plant, and perhaps a moratorium on further missile and nuclear tests.	有鉴于此，目前世界所能期待的最佳结果便是：重新开启的对话，冻结朝鲜宁边核工厂的协议，或许还会包括对进一步导弹试射与核试验的暂时中止。


To speed the process, a new long-term strategy aimed at the underlying factors at work in North Korea – and in relations with its rulers – is needed.	为了加快这一进程，人们需要制定一种新的长期战略，这一战略将以那些对朝鲜（以及与该国领导人的关系）起作用的内在因素为目标。


Simply put, the US and other powers need to pursue constructive economic engagement with North Korea to help the regime achieve “strength and prosperity” through economic transition and integration with the global economy.	简而言之，美国以及其他大国需要与朝鲜进行建设性的经济接触，以帮助该国政权借经济转型与融入全球经济之力、实现“繁荣富强”的目标。


Constructive economic engagement will benefit ordinary North Koreans, who have suffered as much as any people on Earth since the Cold War’s end.	建设性的经济接触将惠及普通的朝鲜民众，自冷战结束之后，该国民众业已尝遍了世间的种种艰辛。


The root cause of North Korea’s economic difficulties is its isolation from the forces of globalization, from which East Asia in particular has profited.	朝鲜之所以遭遇经济困难，其根源在于：该国孤立在了东亚地区从中获益尤为丰厚的全球化力量之外。


In the late 1990’s, as China and Vietnam were posting rapid GDP growth, North Korea was ravaged by one of the worst famines in modern history.	上世纪九十年代后期，当中国和越南两国的GDP快速增长之际，朝鲜却正在经历着现代史上最严重的饥荒之一。


Today, North Korea is a de-industrializing, near-subsistence economy.	如今，朝鲜已是一个工业化程度日渐降低、近乎仅能维持生计的经济实体。


The best hope for most North Koreans is the subterranean market economy that fills the gaps in the state’s planned economy and public distribution system.	对于大部分朝鲜人而言，最大的希望来自于地下市场经济，这种经济活动填补了该国计划经济与公共分配体系之间的缺口；


Trade with China is keeping those market forces supplied with goods and business opportunities across the border.	而中朝贸易正在为这些市场力量提供着商品和跨境商机。


Rather than pressure China to shut down the cross-border flow of fuel and food in order to “teach Pyongyang a lesson,” the US and its allies must find ways to support North Korea’s economic integration with the region.	美国及其盟国不应为了“给平壤一个教训”而向中国施压，迫使该国切断与朝鲜之间的燃料与粮食跨境流动； 而是必须找出途径，为朝鲜与这一地区的经济融合提供支持。


More effective than freezing accounts and barring travel by officials with ties to the missile and nuclear programs would be to work with North Korea’s younger technocrats, banking and financial officials, and economic advisers to improve their expertise in managing North Korea’s economic transition.	与冻结账户、禁止与导弹以及核项目有关的朝鲜官员外出旅行相比，与朝鲜年轻一代的技术官僚、银行业与金融官员以及经济顾问开展合作、以增强他们在管理该国经济转型方面的技能这一措施，将会更加有效。


Of course, economic engagement will not solve the nuclear conundrum in the short term.	当然，经济接触无法在短期内为核谜题找出答案；


Nothing will.	不过其他方式也都解答不了。


The Korean Peninsula will most likely achieve “complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization” only when North Korea is already moving in the direction of economic growth and integration.	只有当朝鲜已经向着经济增长与融合的方向前进之际，朝鲜半岛实现“完全、可验证且不可逆转的无核化”的可能性方才最大。


North Korea’s regime will require demonstrable evidence that a secure, prosperous, non-nuclear development model is available to it before it abandons its nuclear program.	朝鲜政权在放弃其核项目之前，将会要求获得明显的证据，以证明自己可以走一条安全、繁荣却无需核力量的发展道路。


So, as nuclear talks proceed, the US and its partners should help North Korea lay the foundations for a new political economy based on international commerce, investment, and cooperation, as an alternative to the current model predicated on a hostile security environment.	因此，随着核谈判的进行，美国及其伙伴应帮助朝鲜打下一个建立在国际商业、投资与合作基础上的、新型政治经济体系的基础，以此取代以充满敌意的安全环境为预期的现有模式。


We should think of North Korea’s economic transition process as a prerequisite for full denuclearization, rather than simply holding out the promise of a big assistance package as a quid pro quo .	我们应当将朝鲜的经济转型进程视为完全无核化的前提条件，而不是仅仅以关于大型一揽子援助的承诺，作为朝鲜弃核的交换条件。


Of course, some of the big-ticket items in an economic engagement policy will remain contingent on progress in security arrangements and peninsular denuclearization.	当然，经济接触政策中的一些重大事项仍将取决于安全保障安排以及半岛无核化的进展；


But North Korea and the international community can already take some substantive steps.	不过，朝鲜以及国际社会已经可以迈出一些实质性的步伐了。


These include opening diplomatic and official channels in order to improve mutual understanding and the general climate for exchanges; promoting US-North Korea economic dialogues and workshops; encouraging US universities, research institutes, and non-governmental organizations with expertise in economic transition and development to initiate and develop contacts with North Korean counterparts; and permitting the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank to increase North Korean participation, with the ultimate goal of membership.	鼓励美国大学、研究所以及在经济转型与发展问题上具有专业知识的非政府组织，与朝鲜同行建立并发展联系； 此外，允许国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及亚洲开发银行以朝鲜获得这些组织的成员身份为最终目标，增加该国在这些组织中的参与程度。


During the recent visit of a high-level North Korean delegation to the US, there were encouraging signals that its rulers would welcome increased economic contacts, including with international financial institutions.	在朝鲜高层代表团近期访美期间，大家看到了令人鼓舞的信号，这些信号传达出朝鲜统治者欢迎与包括国际金融组织在内的外部世界建立进一步的经济联系；


Moreover, North Korea is actively courting foreign investment.	此外，朝鲜还在积极吸引外国投资；


The United Nations Development Program recently reopened its office in Pyongyang, another positive sign of the regime’s readiness to work toward common development goals.	联合国开发计划署驻平壤办事处也于近期重新开张，这同样是一个积极的信号，表明了朝鲜政权为实现共同发展目标而努力的意愿。


Of course, new sources of growth in North Korea could threaten vested interests, leading to institutional rivalries, factional tension, or a conservative backlash.	当然，朝鲜新的增长源将对既得利益者构成威胁，导致机构纷争、派系紧张与保守势力回潮等现象发生；


And the regime will not want the process of economic opening to get too far ahead of security agreements and political normalization.	而且，该国政权也不希望看到经济开放的步伐太过领先于安全协议与政治关系正常化。


After all, the main lesson that North Korean leaders take from China’s success is that security (Mao Zedong’s rapprochement with the US) precedes economic transition (Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening policy).	毕竟，朝鲜领导人从中国的成功案例中习得的主要经验便是：安全问题（毛泽东与美国恢复邦交之举）先于经济转型（邓小平的改革开放政策）。


Constructive economic engagement will be a tough sell outside North Korea.	不过在朝鲜之外，建设性经济接触的前景并不被人看好。


In the US, North Korea is seen mostly through the prism of nuclear non-proliferation, and the new administration is wary of being tricked into giving its rulers anything without getting fissile material in return.	在美国，大部分人是透过核不扩散这一棱镜来看待朝鲜，而其新一届政府也在谨防受骗：担心朝鲜统治者获得了来自美方的好处，却未在核裂变材料方面作出相应的让步；


In South Korea, President Lee Myung-bak’s political base wants to roll back, not reinvigorate, the Sunshine Policy, and there is a widespread (though by no means universal) weariness with engagement.	在韩国，李明博总统的政治基础也意在弱化阳光政策，而非反其道而行之，同时韩国国内对于经济接触政策也存在着广泛的疲劳感（尽管这种感觉绝非普遍存在）。


In Japan, fear of North Korea’s nuclear threat and anger over the abduction of Japanese citizens generates powerful political pressure against engagement.	在日本，对朝鲜核威胁的恐惧以及对日本公民遭绑架事件的愤怒，使得接触政策面对着强大的政治阻力。


China is the one place that quietly implements a constructive economic engagement approach.	而中国则是一个不声不响地执行建设性经济接触政策的国家。


Instead of pressing Beijing to cut off North Korea, the US and its allies should further develop their own efforts to draw North Korea out of its insularity.	对此，美国及其盟国不应迫使北京方面切断与朝鲜的往来，而是应进一步加强自身的努力，将朝鲜从与世隔绝的状况中拉出。


Turning Point at Chernobyl	切尔诺贝利的转折点


The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl 20 years ago this month, even more than my launch of perestroika, was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later.	20年前这个月发生的切尔诺贝利核事故可能成为五年之后苏联解体的真正原因，其重要程度甚至要超过我所开启的改革事业。


Indeed, the Chernobyl catastrophe was an historic turning point: there was the era before the disaster, and there is the very different era that has followed.	切尔诺贝利灾难的确是一个历史转折点，其前后的两个时代迥然不同。


The very morning of the explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear station on April 26, 1986, the Politburo met to discuss the situation, and then organized a government commission to deal with the consequences.	1986年4月26日切尔诺贝利核电站爆炸的当天上午，苏共政治局就开会讨论局势，随后组织了一个政府委员会来处理事故后果。


The commission was to control the situation, and to ensure that serious measures were taken, particularly in regard to people’s health in the disaster zone.	该委员会在于控制局势并且确保采取有力的措施，特别是有关灾区人民健康的措施。


Moreover, the Academy of Science established a group of leading scientists, who were immediately dispatched to the Chernobyl region.	而且，苏联科学院建立了一支科学家队伍立即派往切尔诺贝利地区。


The Politburo did not immediately have appropriate and complete information that would have reflected the situation after the explosion.	政治局当时并没有立即掌握爆炸后有关局势完整可靠的信息。


Nevertheless, it was the general consensus of the Politburo that we should openly deliver the information upon receiving it.	但是，政治局一致认为我们应当在获得信息后立即公开发布。


This would be in the spirit of the Glasnost policy that was by then already established in the Soviet Union.	这是符合苏联当时所已经确立的公开性政策精神的。


Thus, claims that the Politburo engaged in concealment of information about the disaster is far from the truth.	所以，那种宣称政治局刻意掩盖有关那场灾难信息的说法是不符合事实的。


One reason I believe that there was no deliberate deception is that, when the governmental commission visited the scene right after the disaster and stayed overnight in Polesie, near Chernobyl, its members all had dinner with regular food and water, and they moved about without respirators, like everybody else who worked there.	我之所以相信并没有故意欺骗的原因之一是，政府委员会在事故发生后立即访问灾区并在靠近切尔诺贝利的Polesie过夜。 委员会所有成员晚饭吃的喝的都是平常的东西，他们行动的时候像在那里工作的所有的人一样也没有戴防毒面具。


If the local administration or the scientists knew the real impact of the disaster, they would not have risked doing this.	如果地方当局或科学家们知道灾难的实际影响，他们就不会冒这样的风险了。


In fact, nobody knew the truth, and that is why all our attempts to receive full information about the extent of the catastrophe were in vain.	实际上，没有人知道真相，这也就是为什么我们了解灾难严重程度的信息都是徒劳的。


We initially believed that the main impact of the explosion would be in Ukraine, but Belarus, to the northwest, was hit even worse, and then Poland and Sweden suffered the consequences.	我们最初相信，爆炸主要影响乌克兰，但是西北方向的白俄罗斯受灾更为严重，随后波兰和瑞典也受到了损害。


Of course, the world first learned of the Chernobyl disaster from Swedish scientists, creating the impression that we were hiding something.	当然，世界最初是从瑞典科学家们那里得知切尔诺贝利灾难的，因此造成我们掩盖事实的印象。


But in truth we had nothing to hide, as we simply had no information for a day and a half.	但是实际上，我们没有什么东西可以掩盖，因为在一天半的时间里根本就没有什么消息。


Only a few days later, we learned that what happened was not a simple accident, but a genuine nuclear catastrophe – an explosion of a Chernobyl’s fourth reactor.	我们在几天以后才得知这不是一场简单的事故，而是一场真切的核子灾难，也就是切尔诺贝利核电站的四号反应堆发生了爆炸。


Although the first report on Chernobyl appeared in Pravda on April 28, the situation was far from clear.	尽管真理报在4月28日第一次报道了切尔诺贝利事故，局势还很不明朗。


For example, when the reactor blew up, the fire was immediately put out with water, which only worsened the situation as nuclear particles began spreading through the atmosphere.	例如，反应堆爆炸的时候，大火马上被用水扑灭，而这就恶化了局势，因为核子颗粒开始通过空气传播。


Meanwhile we were still able to take measures in helping people within the disaster zone; they were evacuated, and more than 200 medical organizations were involved in testing the population for radiation poisoning.	与此同时，我们还有能力采取行动帮助灾区人民。 他们得到疏散，而且超过200个的医疗组织参与对居民进行放射性污染测试。


There was a serious danger that the contents of the nuclear reactor would seep into the soil, and then leak into the Dnepr river, thus endangering the population of Kiev and other cities along the riverbanks.	当时存在很大的危险，那就是核反应堆成份会渗入土壤，然后泄漏到第聂伯河，从而威胁到基辅和沿河两岸其他城市的人口。


Therefore, we started the job of protecting the river banks, initiating a total deactivation of the Chernobyl plant.	因此，我们开展保护河岸的工作，开始彻底关闭切尔诺贝利电站。


The resources of a huge country were mobilized to control the devastation, including work to prepare the sarcophagus that would encase the fourth reactor.	整个一个大国的资源都被调动起来控制灾难，包括准备可以把四号反应堆封存起来的大理石棺。


The Chernobyl disaster, more than anything else, opened the possibility of much greater freedom of expression, to the point that the system as we knew it could no longer continue.	切尔诺贝利事故要比其他任何事情都要更加开启了更大言论自由的可能，以至于我们所认识的体制难以为继。


It made absolutely clear how important it was to continue the policy of glasnost, and I must say that I started to think about time in terms of pre-Chernobyl and post-Chernobyl.	这一事故彻底表明继续开放性政策的重要性，而且我必须说我开始用切尔诺贝利前后的观点来思考时代了。


The price of the Chernobyl catastrophe was overwhelming, not only in human terms, but also economically.	切尔诺贝利灾难的代价是巨大的，不仅是按照人的标准，而是是按照经济标准也是一样。


Even today, the legacy of Chernobyl affects the economies of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.	甚至在今天，切尔诺贝利的遗产影响到俄罗斯、乌克兰以及白俄罗斯的经济。


Some even suggest that the economic price for the USSR was so high that it stopped the arms race, as I could not keep building arms while paying to clean up Chernobyl.	有些人甚至说这一事故对于苏联的经济代价高的让它停止了军备竞赛，因为我无法再花钱清理切尔诺贝利的同时继续扩充军备。


This is wrong.	这一观点是错误的。


My declaration of January 15, 1986, is well known around the world.	我在1986年1月15日所作出的声明为世人所知。


I addressed arms reduction, including nuclear arms, and I proposed that by the year 2000 no country should have atomic weapons.	我阐述了减少军备，包括核军备的问题，并且建议到2000年所有国家都应该放弃核子武器。


I personally felt a moral responsibility to end the arms race.	我个人感觉到道义上的责任来终止军备竞赛。


But Chernobyl opened my eyes like nothing else: it showed the horrible consequences of nuclear power, even when it is used for non-military purposes.	但是，切尔诺贝利事故让我恍然大悟。 它展示出核子力量的后果，即使是用于非军事目的。


One could now imagine much more clearly what might happen if a nuclear bomb exploded.	人们可以更为清楚地想象一枚核弹爆炸的后果。


According to scientific experts, one SS-18 rocket could contain a hundred Chernobyls.	根据科学专家们的推测，一枚SS-18火箭可以携带一百个切尔诺贝利大小的核当量。


Unfortunately, the problem of nuclear arms is still very serious today.	不幸的是，核武器问题当今依然严重。


Countries that have them – the members of the so-called “nuclear club” – are in no hurry to get rid of them.	拥有核武器的国家，也就是所谓的“核子俱乐部”成员们并不急于销毁核武器。


On the contrary, they continue to refine their arsenals, while countries without nuclear weapons want them, believing that the nuclear club’s monopoly is a threat to the world peace.	相反，它们继续完善它们的军火库，而没有核武器的国家们相信则核子俱乐部的垄断是世界和平的威胁，因此想方设法地拥有它们。


The twentieth anniversary of the Chernobyl catastrophe reminds us that we should not forget the horrible lesson taught to the world in 1986.	切尔诺贝利灾难二十周年纪念日提醒我们，我们不应当忘记1986年给世界的可怕教训。


We should do everything in our power to make all nuclear facilities safe and secure.	我们应当竭尽全力确保所有核设施的安全。


We should also start seriously working on the production of the alternative sources of energy.	我们开展切实工作生产可替代性能源。


The fact that world leaders now increasingly talk about this imperative suggests that the lesson of Chernobyl is finally being understood.	世界领导人们加大谈论这一迫切问题这一事实就表明世界终于开始理解切尔诺贝利的教训。


Turning the Page in Mexico	墨西哥翻开新的一页


Three months from now, when Mexico’s new president Felipe Calderón takes office, many will consider it a dubious honor.	三个月以后，当墨西哥新总统卡尔德隆就职之时，许多人会质疑其荣耀。


These are perhaps the only two certainties in Mexico’s politics right now.	当前墨西哥政治中两个确定因素可能只有这些了。


With oil prices higher than ever, its country-risk premiums lower than ever, remittances from abroad, tourism revenues, and foreign investment hitting all time highs, and annual GDP growth estimated at 4.2% for this year, Mexicans – in many ways – have never had it so good.	石油价格创记录，国家风险保费比以往都要低，其国外汇款、旅游收入以及外国投资都达到历史最高点，年度国民生产总值估计达到4. 2%。


Indeed, after ten years of uninterrupted macroeconomic stability – something Mexico had not experienced since the 1960’s – the middle class has expanded dramatically, and reasonably priced bank credit is now available to millions who had been excluded in the past.	确实，经过了十年不间断的宏观经济稳定，中产阶级大幅度增加，而且收费合理的银行信贷现在也提供给了过去一直被排挤在外的数以百万计的人。 墨西哥自二十世纪六十年代以来就没有过这种宏观经济稳定。


Yet, despite these robust changes, poverty remains widespread, inequality abysmal, and social resentment is on the rise.	但是，尽管有这些强有力的变化，贫困依旧到处都是，不平等极为严重，而且社会仇视正在上升。


This is why Calderón’s opponent in July’s presidential election, the populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, obtained such a large percentage of the vote compared to the Mexican left’s previous high-water mark in the election of 2000.	这也就是为何卡尔德隆七月份总统选举的对手、民粹主义者洛佩斯与2000年选举中墨西哥左翼的最好成绩相比取得了如此大百分比的选票。


But it was not enough to win an election that López Obrador and his backers thought was in the bag.	但是，他们还不足以赢得大选。 洛佩斯及其支持者们认为胜利唾手可得。


The extremely tight race – Calderón won by 0.5% of the vote – and the profound disappointment suffered by López Obrador and his supporters led them to contest the ruling of Mexico’s electoral authorities, and to refuse to acknowledge Calderón’s victory.	这场选举极为接近，卡尔德隆只多得5%的选票。 洛佩斯及其支持者极度失望，导致其质疑墨西哥选举当局的裁决，并且拒绝承认卡尔德隆的胜利。


Instead, López Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor, and his supporters demanded a vote-by-vote recount, which is not mandated – though it is not proscribed – by the country’s electoral laws.	相反，曾经是墨西哥市前市长的洛佩斯及其支持者们要求逐一重新计票。 该国的选举法律并不禁止重新计票，但是并未如此授权。


The Electoral Court, however, decided otherwise.	但是，选举法院做出了相反的决定。


This is where Mexico stands today: a mess by any definition, with no obvious solution in sight.	从任何角度来说，这个国家都是乱作一团，看不到明显的解决方案。 墨西哥当前的局势就是如此。


In the long run, the answer undoubtedly lies in the transformation of the Mexican left, and partly also of the Mexican right.	毫无疑问，从长远来看，答案在于墨西哥左右两翼的转变。


For years, both were de facto subsumed within the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled Mexico for seven decades.	多年以来，左右两翼实际上都归属于墨西哥制度革命党，该党统治墨西哥长达七十年之久。


That epoch came to an end in 2000, and will not return.	这一历史阶段在2000年终结，而且不会回来。


Today, right and left, as well as the PRI itself, are all separate entities, and have a great deal of reconstruction to do.	今天，左右两翼以及制度革命党本身都是独立的实体，都有艰巨的重建任务。


The right-of-center Party of National Action (PAN), the grouping of current President Vicente Fox and Calderón, needs to acquire a sincere and profound social conscience.	现任总统福克斯以及卡尔德隆属于中间偏右的国家行动党。 该党需要具有真诚以及深刻的社会良知。


It must transform itself into something like the Social Christian or Christian Democratic parties that exist in Costa Rica, Chile, Venezuela, and Peru.	它必须将自身转化成为哥斯达黎加、智利、委内瑞拉以及秘鲁的社会基督党或者基民党那样的党派。


Otherwise, it will continue to be seen by Mexico’s impoverished masses as the party of the rich – perhaps unfairly, but not entirely unjustly.	否则，墨西哥的贫苦民众将会继续视该党为富人的政党。 这可能有点不公平，但并非完全如此。


PAN’s metamorphosis is underway, but there is still much work to be done.	国家行动党正在转变，但是还有很多工作要做。


Much more importantly, however – and perhaps to the surprise of many benevolent international observers – the Mexican left is nowhere near transforming itself into a modern, reformist, social-democratic party.	然而，更为重要的是，而且出乎许多好心的国际观察家们的意料之外的是，墨西哥的左翼根本就没有将自我转化为现代改革派的社会民主党派。


Not only is it not New Labor; it is not even like the French, Spanish, or Chilean Socialist Parties, or Brazil’s Workers’ Party.	它不仅不是新工党，而且甚至不像是法国、西班牙或者智利的社会党，或者巴西的工人党。


It continues to be a movement with a revolutionary faction – not a majority, but certainly a large minority – bent on insurrection, socialism, and “anti-imperialist” alignment with Cuba and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.	它依旧是具有革命派别的运动，还不是多数派，但也是很大的少数派。 它同古巴以及委内瑞拉的查维斯总统结盟，致力于谋反、社会主义以及“反帝”。


Mexico’s left refuses truly to embrace market economics, representative democracy, and the rule of law.	墨西哥的左翼完全拒绝接受市场经济、代表性的民主以及法治。


Obviously, many of its members and leaders do subscribe to these tenets, and disapprove in private of López Obrador’s rabble-rousing antics.	很明显，该党的许多党员和领导人都坚信不移，而且私下里不赞同洛佩斯蛊惑人心的噱头。


But, as long they remain relatively powerless, Mexico will remain unbalanced, deprived of the modern left that it needs to combat poverty and inequality, and hostage to those who still believe in revolution and the assault on the Winter Palace.	但是，只要他们还是相对没有实力，墨西哥还将偏向一方，缺乏与贫穷和不平等做斗争的现代左派，并且受到依然相信革命以及十月革命的人士的压制。


Without these twin transformations of its right and left, Mexico can only keep running in place, while so many others speed forward.	没有左右两翼的变革，墨西哥只能原地踏步，而其他众多国家则迅速发展。


But change will not happen overnight, so Mexico needs short-term solutions to its travails.	但是，变化不会突如其来，所以，墨西哥需要某些分娩阵痛的权宜之计。


The most urgent, feasible, and relevant steps involve electoral and legal reforms aimed at avoiding a repeat of the current protests over the presidential vote.	最为急切、可行以及相关的步骤就是旨在避免当前抗议总统大选结果重演的选举和法律改革。


These include establishing a second-round run-off in presidential elections, so that Mexico’s next president has a mandate supported by more than 50% of the voters.	这些包括建立总统大选第二轮投票，这样，墨西哥的下一任总统就会得到超过50%的选票支持。


But they also entail the re-election of representatives and senators, recourse to referendums for constitutional amendments, and independent candidacies.	但是，它们还应当包括重新选举众议员和参议员，对宪法修正案举行全民公决以及独立候选人制度。


Perhaps most importantly, Mexico must devise a French-style semi-presidential system whereby a designated Prime Minister is responsible for building majorities in Congress, and must be ratified by the latter.	最为重要的可能是，墨西哥必须设计一种类似法国那��的半总统制度。 根据这种制度，任命总理负责在国会建立多数议席，并得到后者的批准。


Eliminating the purchase of air time on radio and television during campaigns, with the consequent reduction in their cost, would complement these changes.	与此配套的是取消在选举期间购买电台和电视台的广播时间，从而减少选举的开支。


None of these indispensable and long-postponed reforms will convince López Obrador’s followers that the end of poverty and inequality in Mexico is around the corner.	以上这些必不可少、拖延已久的改革都不会让洛佩斯的追随者相信结束墨西哥的贫困和不平等指日可待。


But no significant improvement on these fronts can occur without thoroughly refashioning the country’s decision-making process.	但是，不全面改造该国的决策进程，上述这些重要的改进就没有一个可以实现。


Fox and his team thought that the mechanisms that worked during the authoritarian period could simply be transferred to the democratic era and function smoothly.	福克斯及其团队认为，在独裁时期奏效的机制可以简单地照搬到民主时代并且运转正常。


In fact, none of the major economic and social reforms Mexico desperately needs in order to grow more rapidly, distribute wealth more evenly, and combat poverty more effectively can be passed if the institutional scaffolding is not rebuilt.	实际上，如果机制框架不予以重建，墨西哥更快发展、更为公平地分配财富并且更为有效地与贫困作战所急需的主要的经济和社会改革就会被绕过。


That is what Calderón can and must do in order to render moot today’s debates about the fairness of the election that brought him to power.	为了让有关使卡尔德隆上台的选举公平性的辩论变得毫无意义，他就要可以、而且必须做以上的事情。


It is time for Mexico to turn the page, but it must turn the right page.	现在是墨西哥翻开新的一页的时候了，但是，应当翻开正确的一页。


Tweets of Freedom	自由的推特


NEW YORK – Google has been widely celebrated for its loud refusal to continue censoring its search results in China.	纽约 —— 谷歌因大声拒绝中国继续审查其搜索结果而广受称颂。


It is still unclear whether Google will continue to operate in China, but in any event we are not about to see much change in China’s Internet policy.	谷歌是否会继续在中国经营仍无法确定，但无论如何中国的互联网政策不会发生多大变化。


More likely, all this “foreign meddling” will merely cause the Chinese government to dig in its heels.	所有这些“外来干涉”更有可能坚定中国政府绝不妥协的态度。


Even if Google does ultimately leave China, the game is not over.	即使谷歌最终真的离开中国，事情也没有结束。


Western companies can promote Internet freedom from the outside, by providing useful technology as well as the keys to access it.	西方企业可以从外部推动互联网自由，提供具有实用价值的技术和使用这些技术的秘籍。


Call this “Twitter diplomacy.”	这就是“推特外交”。


Twitter is largely blocked by China’s “great firewall” (GFW), which prevents Chinese people from accessing certain sites.	阻止中国民众进入某些网站的中国的“防火长城”基本上挡住了推特。


Yet Twitter has an almost religious following among tech-savvy Chinese, whose determination to use the service outstrips authorities’ efforts to block access to it.	但推特在技术熟练的中国人中受到近乎宗教般的拥护，他们使用推特的决心超过了政府阻挡的力量。


These “netizens” surmount the firewall by way of proxy servers or virtual private networks (VPNs) that allow them to browse the Web as if they were outside of China.	这些“网民”借助代理服务器或虚拟专用网络越过防火墙，这些工具让他们像在国外一样浏览互联网。


Earlier this month, Chinese twitterati helped get the GFW onto the list of Twitter’s top ten “trending topics” (or most tweeted terms) – an impressive feat given that Twitter is supposed to be inaccessible in China.	本月初，中国的推特精英合力让防火长城登上了推特十大“热门话题”（或被提到最多的词汇）排行 —— 因为推特在中国应该无法登入，因此这样一种举动令人印象深刻。


Twitter, which lets people send bite-size messages to large groups, allows Chinese to quickly disseminate urgent news or even uncomfortable facts.	推特允许人们将小段信息发送给海量人群，使中国人可以快速传播紧急新闻甚至是令人不安的事实。


“Twitter can create a faster information flow than any official agency,” says Michael Anti, a journalist in Beijing who has long been at the forefront of the Chinese Internet movement.	“推特信息流可以比任何官方机构更加迅速，”长期处于中国互联网运动前沿的北京记者迈克尔·安提说。


“That means people would get information faster than the government.	“这也意味着民众可以比政府更快地获取信息，这确实为共产党带来了真正的危机。


That’s a real crisis for Communists.”	”


Twitter also helps protect individual citizens.	推特也在保护公民个人时发挥了作用。


Blogger Peter Guo claims that Twitter got him out of jail.	博客写手彼得·郭称是推特将他救出了监狱。


He says that he was arrested after spreading word about a crime that allegedly involved local officials.	他说他在散布据称牵涉到当地官员犯罪的消息后被捕。


He tweeted an SOS via his mobile phone after he was arrested last July, and his case quickly attracted both domestic and international attention, which helped secure his release a little over two weeks later.	他在去年 7 月被捕后用自己的手机在推特上发送了紧急求助信号，他的案子很快吸引了国内国际的关注，而这也帮助他在被捕两个多星期后获释。


So just imagine if Twitter were available to the larger Chinese population.	想象一下如果推特能为多数中国民众所用将会发生什么。


The problem is that many Chinese still lack the simple tools that would enable them to get past the GFW.	问题在于很多中国人仍然缺乏能使他们绕过防火长城的简单的工具。


When I asked Guo how the outside world could make Twitter more accessible in China, he replied that we could help by “providing affordable VPN service.”	当我询问郭国际社会能为让推特在中国普及做些什么时，他回答说我们可以“提供价格便宜的虚拟专用网络。


Foreign companies, he added, could make available more secure browsers that would help “Chinese people to circumvent the GFW.”	”他补充说外国企业可以提供安全性更高的浏览器，协助“中国民众绕过防火长城。 ”


Government can also play a role in empowering Chinese netizens.	政府也可以给予中国网民力量。


Jonathan Zittrain, Co-Director of Harvard University’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society, has suggested that the United States, for example, could start with some basic funding for the kind of “science and technology innovation that gave us the Internet to begin with.”	哈佛大学伯克曼网络与社会研究中心总裁 乔纳森·齐特赖恩（ Jonathan Zittrain ）建议美国可以从某些基础的出资援助开始，推动“最初带给我们互联网的科技创新。


This could include potential “game changers” in China such as ad hoc mesh networking, which allows users to communicate with one another by hopping from one device to the next without an Internet service provider in the middle.	”这可能包括中国的潜在“转折事件”，比如允许用户从一台设备跳转到另一台设备，从而摆脱互联网服务提供商中间限制的专门的网状联络。


But, given the political sensitivities of foreign pressure on China, it is unclear how far Western governments will be able to go.	但是考虑到外国对中国施压的敏感性，尚不清楚西方政府能插手到什么程度。


That is where companies like Twitter come in.	这也给了像推特这样的企业用武之处。


Even if Twitter’s co-founders did not necessarily develop it to be a tool of democratization, that is precisely what it has become.	即使推特的合伙创立者原本未必让它成为一种民主工具，但它已经负起了这样的职责。


In April 2009, young people in Moldova used Twitter to organize protests against their government.	2009 年 4 月，摩尔多瓦的年轻人利用推特组织反对政府的抗议活动。


Two months later, Twitter famously helped Iranians assemble and share information during their election protests.	两个月后，推特又协助伊朗民众举行集会，并在组织大选抗议活动过程中实现信息共享。


Now, we are beginning to see a similar phenomenon in China.	现在，我们开始在中国看到类似的现象。


In November, citizen protests against the construction of an incinerator in Guangzhou became a widely Tweeted event.	11 月，广州市民反对建造焚化炉的抗议活动成为推特的热门事件。


Referring to the role that Twitter played in protests in Iran and Moldova, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey told me, “These are all events and movements that people chose to make happen, and Twitter was a tool that happened to be there to make it more easy.”	谈到推特在伊朗和摩尔多瓦抗议活动中所起的作用，推特的合伙创始人杰克·多尔西告诉我，“这些都是民众自主发起的事件和活动，推特只是碰巧存在的一种使过程更加便捷的现成工具。 ”


Twitter may now be taking more aggressive steps to promote Internet freedom abroad.	推特或许会采取更积极的措施，推动国外的互联网自由。


Co-founder and CEO Evan Williams recently suggested that software developers were working on technology to evade government barriers, though he did not give specific details.	尽管没有透露具体的细节，但合伙创始人兼首席执行官伊万·威廉姆斯不久前表示软件开发人员正在开发规避政府屏障的技术。


Google’s adamant stance on Chinese censorship may have been well intentioned.	谷歌在对待中国审查问题上的强硬立场或许本是好意。


The problem is that the standoff has now taken on the tone of a state-to-state confrontation.	问题是现在却演变成了国家和国家之间的对峙。


China, apparently still reeling from a “century of humiliation” at the hands of outsiders, will not be pushed around by America.	中国显然无法忘记在外来入侵者面前那个“屈辱的世纪”，因此绝不会听任美国的摆布。


This view is not limited to the Chinese government.	持有这种观点的不只是中国政府。


Right now, many netizens are applauding Google’s move.	现在，许多网民都在为谷歌的行为喝彩。


But if they begin to perceive Google as a pawn of the US government, this sentiment could turn on a dime.	但如果他们开始将谷歌看作美国政府的爪牙，那么这种情绪可能在瞬间就会消失得无影无踪。


Ultimately the Chinese Internet cat-and-mouse game will be won with innovation, not political pressure.	赢得中国互联网的猫鼠之战最终要依靠创新，而不是政治压力。


The world should continue to flood the Chinese market, and those of other countries that restrict freedom of expression, with cutting-edge technology.	世界应当继续用尖端技术冲击中国和其他限制言论自由国家的市场。


Of course, censors will often be just one step behind, filtering information and shutting down sites.	当然，审查者通常都会落后一步，过滤信息并关闭网站。


But Chinese netizens are remarkably adept at using the limited tools available to them.	但中国的网民非常擅长利用可供利用的有限的工具。


In doing so, they are transforming their country in a slow but irreversible way.	他们这么做，是在以一种缓慢但又不可逆转的方式改变着他们的国家。


Twenty-Five Years of HIV/AIDS	二十五年与HIV/AIDS的抗争


It is now a quarter-century since the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) was recognized.	自从免疫缺乏综合症（AIDS）被人们认识以来已经过去了二十五个年头。


The knowledge that has been gained since then has been breathtaking, and the pace at which basic research has been translated into lifesaving treatments is unprecedented.	从那时起所获得的知识是激动人心的，而基础研究被转化成拯救生命的治疗方法的步伐也是前所未有的。


The discovery of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as the cause of AIDS was followed by elucidation of its pathogenesis, natural history, and epidemiology, the creation of a diagnostic blood test, and the development of antiretroviral drugs.	在发现了人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）是艾滋病的致病原因后，接着有解释了它的致病机理、自然史、流行病学，创立了诊断性血液检验、开发了抗逆转录病毒药物。


In 1996, the approval of the first drug of a class called protease inhibitors led to the adoption of a multi-drug, anti-HIV regimen known as highly active antiretroviral therapy, or HAART.	1996年，对于一类名为蛋白酶抑制剂的首批药物的批准带来一种多药、抗HIV疗程，即高效抗逆转录病毒治疗（HAART）的被采用。


This advance dramatically transformed the quality of life and extended the life expectancy of HIV-infected individuals.	这一进展极大地改观了生活的质量，并且增强了HIV感染者对生命的期望。


Moreover, antiretroviral drugs given to pregnant HIV-infected women and newborns have proven enormously successful in preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV.	此外，给感染HIV病毒的孕妇和新生儿服用抗逆转录病毒药物后，在预防母婴传染HIV病毒方面取得了巨大的成功。


As a result, since these combinations of drugs were introduced, at least three million years of life have been saved in the United States alone.	其结果是，自从这些合成药物被引入以来，单单在美国就已经至少挽救了累计三百万年的生命。


We now have more than two dozen approved anti-HIV drugs and drug combinations, and a robust pipeline of next-generation drugs in various stages of development and clinical testing.	现在我们已经有了超过二十四中被认可的抗HIV药物和合成药物，并且还有源源不断的处于研发和临床试验等各种不同阶段的下一代药物。


But nowadays our task is to apply these scientific and technological advances to delivering treatment and prevention strategies to people throughout the world, particularly those in resource-poor nations.	但是今天我们面临的任务是把这些科技的进展应用到给全世界，尤其是那些身处资源贫乏的国家的人民提供治疗和预防措施上去。


Despite the successes in treating HIV/AIDS in the United States and other developed countries, it is clear that efforts to combat the pandemic must be scaled up in Africa, Asia, and other parts of the world where HIV/AIDS exacts its greatest toll.	尽管我们在治疗HIV/AIDS的问题上已经在美国和其他发达国家取得了成功，但是很显然在HIV/AIDS造成最大危害的非洲、亚洲和世界其他地方，抗击流行病的努力也必须得到大大的加强。


Indeed, an estimated 40 million people throughout the world are infected with HIV; nearly three million died of AIDS in 2006 alone.	事实上，在全世界估计有四千万人感染了HIV病毒； 而2006年有大约300万人死于艾滋病。


Programs such as the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, and philanthropies like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Clinton Foundation have helped make drugs available to treat 2 million people infected with HIV in lower- and middle-income countries.	像总统艾滋病紧急救援计划、全球抗艾滋病、肺结核和疟疾基金会这样的一些计划以及像比尔和梅林达基金和克林顿基金会这样的慈善组织已经帮助为中低收入国家200万感染HIV病毒的人提供了治疗药物。


But fewer than 25% of the people in these countries who need antiretroviral drugs are receiving them.	但是在这些国家需要抗逆转录病毒药物的人中还是只有不到25%的人得到了它们。


With 4.3 million new HIV infections each year throughout the world, we face an untenable situation, as new HIV infections far outstrip our ability to treat all those infected.	面对全世界每年430万的新增HIV病毒感染者，我们没有抵抗，因为新的HIV感染远远超过了我们治疗所有那些感染者的能力。


So improvements in our ability to prevent HIV infections from occurring are desperately needed.	因此我们急需提高我们预防HIV感染发生的能力。


A wide array of prevention strategies, including behavioral modification, distribution of condoms, and the provision of clean needles and syringes to intravenous drug users, has emerged.	迄今已经有了许多预防措施，比如行为矫正、散发避孕套以及向静脉注射药物使用者提供清洁的针头和皮下注射器等。


Recent studies suggest that adult male circumcision can be a promising prevention strategy, if properly and hygienically performed and accompanied by appropriate counseling and post-surgical care.	最近的研究表明给成年男子实施包皮环割术会成为一个很有指望的预防措施，条件是如果得到正确和卫生的实施，以及适当的咨询和术后护理的话。


Likewise, the ongoing development of topical microbicides offers the hope of empowering women to protect themselves from HIV infection when using condoms or refusing sexual intercourse is not feasible.	同样地，对于表面杀微生物剂的正在进行的开发给那些无法使用避孕套或拒绝性交的妇女提供了保护她们自己不被HIV病毒感染的希望。


But the greatest scientific and public health goal in HIV/AIDS research still eludes us: the development of an effective HIV vaccine.	但是我们依然未能在HIV/AIDS的研究上最高的科学和公众健康目标，就是开发一种有效的HIV疫苗。


This challenge has been particularly difficult because of the nature of the virus, particularly its ability to integrate itself into the genome of host cells, to readily mutate, and to conceal that part of its outer coat that would induce protective antibodies.	因为病毒的性质而使得这一挑战变得特别困难，尤其是因为它有能力把自己融进寄主细胞的基因组中，随时准备进行变异，以及隐藏其会诱发保护性抗体的外壳部分。


We also know that the body’s natural immune response against HIV is inadequate in containing or controlling the virus.	我们还知道人体对HIV病毒的自然免疫反应并不足以限制或控制该病毒。


Indeed, since the discovery of HIV, there has never been a documented case in which an individual’s immune system has ever completely eradicated the virus following established infection.	事实上，自从发现HIV病毒以来，迄今还没有过有记录的某个人在受到感染后其免疫系统完全根除病毒的例子。


Many current studies focus on developing vaccines that might not completely prevent HIV infection, but that still could slow the progression of HIV or make a person less likely to pass the virus on to others.	当前的许多研究集中在开发可能并不会完全预防HIV感染、但是仍然能够减缓HIV病毒的发展或者使一个人不那么可能把病毒传染给其他人的疫苗上。


But our ultimate goal is to develop a vaccine that can prevent HIV infection.	但是我们的终极目标还是开发出一种能预防HIV病毒感染的疫苗。


To succeed, we must solve the mystery of how to induce the human body to produce a protective immune response.	要取得成功，我们必须解决怎样诱导人体产生保护性免疫反应的难题。


Despite the extraordinary scientific and medical accomplishments in the battle against HIV/AIDS so far, history will judge us by what we accomplish in the next quarter-century, and how we respond to the challenge of delivering the fruits of our research efforts to those who need them most.	尽管迄今为止在与HIV/AIDS的斗争中我们已经取得了巨大的科学和医学上的成就，但是历史将会评判我们在未来的二十五年里能够取得怎样的成绩以及我们怎样回应把我们的研究成果用在那些最需要它们的人身上的挑战。


Twilight of a Pontiff	教皇的黄昏


Once again Pope John Paul II has returned to hospital, gravely ill.	保罗教皇再一次回到医院，命在旦夕。


Even for non-Catholics like myself, this is an occasion to ponder what the world will lose when the Pope’s body finally succumbs to his ailments.	即使是像我这样的非天主教教徒，在这样的场景下也开始思考教皇病逝的时候，世界将承受怎样的损失。


The picture that emerges is one of a mixture of colors.	脑中浮现的是一幅色彩斑斓的画面。


For those of us who regard the collapse of communism in 1989 as a seminal event of twentieth-century history, Pope John Paul is a hero.	对于那些像我这样把1989年共产主义阵营解体看作20世纪影响深远的事件的人来说，约翰·保罗二世是个英雄。


In Poland, he was the focus of all the activities of civil society.	在波兰，他是所有民间活动的中心焦点。


While in other countries, most emphatically in Romania, but also in what was then Czechoslovakia and in Hungary, the alternative to communism was a vacuum or at best a few isolated organizations in civil society, Poland had an alternative source of legitimacy.	在其他国家，尤其是在罗马尼亚，以及当时的捷克斯洛伐克和匈牙利，真空状态或者最多可被称之为民间的独立组织取代了共产主义，而波兰却有另外一种合法性的根源。


Before and after his election, the then Cardinal Karol Wojtyla of Krakow was its most effective representative.	就在他当选教皇前后，也就是随后那个Krakow的Cardinal Karol Wojtyla，是最能代表他的时候。


Cardinal Wojtyla’s election as Pope therefore had a significance far beyond the confines of the Church.	Cardinal Wojtyla当选教皇的重要意义不仅仅体现在教会内部。


Actually he himself did not like the identification of his church with civil society.	事实上，他本人并不喜欢将他的教会定义为民间组织。


In a conversation he protested: “No, the Church is not civil society, it is sacred society.”	在一次谈话中他曾抗议说：“不，教会不是民间社会，它是神圣社会。 ”


This points to another aspect of John Paul II’s papacy, more relevant to insiders than to outsiders.	这表明了约翰·保罗二世担任教皇一职带来的的另一方面的影响，比起教会外的人来说，这点与教徒更休戚相关。


In matters of doctrine and ethics, John Paul II represented the conservative view.	在教条和伦理方面，与约翰二十三世教皇恰恰相反，约翰·保罗二世代表了保守派的观点。


He was the counterpoint to Pope John XXIII, who, through the Second Vatican Council of the 1960’s and in numerous other ways, tried to reconcile Catholics with the modern age.	约翰二十三世通过上世纪六十年代的第二次梵蒂冈会议和诸多其他渠道，曾试图使天主教与现代社会相为融合。


Pope John Paul arrested this process and even tried to reverse it.	但是，约翰·保罗教皇阻止该进程，甚至还试图反对它。


For progressive theologians like Hans Küng, he was and is therefore a force of anti-modernism, even counter-enlightenment.	对一些激进的理论家诸如Hans Küng来说，约翰·保罗教皇无论是过去还是现在都代表了一股反现代、甚至反对启蒙教化的力量。


At the same time, the Pope became the first great traveling Pontiff of modern times, almost a symbol of a globalized world.	与此同时，教皇成为了摩登时代内第一个的伟大的旅行教皇，成为世界全球化的象征。


This meant that his image if not his words reached out to millions who do not belong to his church.	这意味着，除了他的话语，教皇的形象也能被传到千百万不信教的人们那里。


There can be few people who will be recognized as widely all over the globe as John Paul II.	全球没有谁能够比约翰·保罗二世更受到普遍的认可了。


By that fact alone, he added a spiritual dimension to an age which is dominated by worldly concerns, such as wealth and show business.	尽管这个时代被全球性的忧虑所主宰，诸如对财富和商业秀的种种担忧，但是就凭这一点，他为这个时代添加了一种精神向度。


Those of us who believe in a multidimensional culture will be grateful to him for his enormous efforts, thus for his “catholicism” in the original sense of the word, his all-embracing concerns.	对于那些像我们这样信仰多维文化的人来说，我们对他所作的巨大努力、对他对“天主教教义”所作的原意阐述及其兼容并包的挂念关心深表感激。


On the other side of the balance sheet, and despite his global outreach, Pope John Paul II cannot be described as particularly ecumenical.	从另外一个方面来说，尽管他的影响遍布全球，却不能用尤为普遍来形容约翰·保罗二世。


The beginnings of Christian ecumenicism under his predecessors did not advance much in his 25 years.	他的前任主教所推行的基督教大公运动在他在位的25年间进展寥寥。


Paradoxically, he found it easier to reach out to non-Christian religions.	矛盾的是，他发现与基督教以外的宗教沟通反而更为容易。


The Catholic-Jewish dialogue in particular was in good hands with him.	特别是天主教与犹太教之间的谈话，他尤为得心应手。


When a distinguished Jewish scholar thanked him for what he had done to cultivate Catholic-Jewish relations, he replied: “That was not me, that was Providence,” and then added with his inimitable smile: “And me.”	当一个著名的犹太学者感谢他为培养天主教-犹太教关系所作的努力时，他回答：“那不是我，是神意眷顾，”随后，带着他独特的笑容，加了一句，“还有我。 ”


Has he been a man of peace?	他是一个和平使者吗？


Yes, of course.	是的，当然。


But his reign spans a time in which numerous regional conflicts turned violent.	但是他的执政期跨越了一个无数地区争端演变成暴力行动的时代。


There was little he could do in Kosovo or the Congo.	对于科索沃和刚果发生的一切，他无能为力。


The years of John Paul II’s papacy have not actually been a time in which “soft power” could achieve a great deal anywhere, so that Stalin’s famous question, “How many divisions has the Pope?,” remained topical.	约翰·保罗二世任职于一个并非“软力量”在到处都可以起到多大作用的时代，因此，斯大林那个著名的问题，即“教皇能有多少个师？


This was all the more relevant to the extent that Pope John Paul II is not enamored with the United States.	”仍具现实意义。 这更能说明为何约翰·保罗教皇与美国互不投机。


There are indications that he shares the old central European prejudice of America as a materialist civilization that provides the wherewithal – but not the ideas – for what needs to be done.	从种种迹象来看，他保有着欧洲中部的古老偏见，认为美国的唯物主义文化，只能为要做的事情提供必需的资金，而非想法和理念。


The Pope’s legacy is, in other words, a story of great strengths and considerable weaknesses.	教皇留给世人的，换言之，是一个伟大力量与不少缺点并存的故事。


It would be incomplete, however, were one not to mention the warm, curious, friendly, and humorous human being underneath it all.	然而，如果不提及那个温和的、好奇的、友好幽默的人，这个故事将是不完整的。


Pope John Paul II is in many ways an intellectual; he may have been underrated in that regard.	从很多角度来说，约翰·保罗二世是一个知识文人，但他这方面的才能却被低估了。


However, he is also a simple man who connected without effort to others.	但是，他也是一个可以毫不费力地与他人沟通的简单人。


He bore his suffering since the assassination attempt of 1981 with dignity.	自从1981年遇刺后，他就一直带着尊严忍受着痛苦。


As a person, he never failed to impress his many visitors.	作为一个普通人，他一直给他的诸多访者留下深刻印象。


Even in his current reduced state due to his illness, Pope John Paul II symbolizes human potential.	即使是现在由于病情而减少会面的状态下，约翰·保罗二世始终代表着人类的潜能。


Twilight of Our Political Gods	我们的政治上帝们日薄西山


For some time I thought that the Twenty-Second Amendment to the United States Constitution was probably the best way to ensure that political leaders do not overstay their welcome, and, just as importantly, wear out their effectiveness.	有时，我觉得美国宪法第二十二条修正案可能是确保政治领导人并不恋饯乃至众人厌恶、而且更为重要的是丧失其统治效力的最佳途径。


This Amendment bars US Presidents from holding office for more than two four-year terms.	这一修正案禁止美国总统任职超过两个为期四年的任期。


Perhaps I had forgotten the travails of President George W. Bush’s predecessors in their second term, but his own current predicament shows that the constitutional limit has its own problems.	可能我已经忘却了现任布什总统前任们第二任期内的艰难，但是，布什目前自身的困境表明，这一宪法限制本身也存在问题。


For one thing, it makes the President a lame duck sometime in his second term.	第一，这一修正案使得总统在第二个任期的某些时候成为蹩脚鸭。


Does anyone remember that after his re-election Bush promised to reform the pension system (“Social Security”)?	曾记否，布什连任后许诺改革养老金制度（即所谓的“社会保险制度”）？


Now he is clearly hamstrung not only by the Democratic opposition, but also, and perhaps more so, by the succession struggles within his own party.	现在，不仅由于民主党的反对，而且可能更主要是因为共和党内部的接班斗争使得其明显陷于瘫痪。


However, the fate of Bush’s friend, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, shows that lame-duck status can occur even without a constitutional term limit – indeed, without a written constitution at all.	但是，布什的朋友、英国首相布莱尔却表明，蹩脚鸭状态即使没有宪法上的任期限制，甚至根本没有成文宪法也会发生。


Blair made the fatal mistake of setting his own limit to his tenure of office by saying that he would not contest a fourth election as leader of the Labour Party.	布莱尔宣布他不会作为工党领导人参加第四次选举，给自己的职务限定了期限，因而犯下了致命错误。


But, even without such a vow, he would find it difficult after nine years in office to combine a program of reform with a sense of what can be achieved given the mood of his party and of the country.	但是，即使没有这样的保证，他也会发现，在任职九年之后，鉴于其工党和英国的情绪，难以怀有成就感地整合改革规划。


Indeed, reforms announced by Blair increasingly sound like empty promises, because the apparently inevitable has happened: the Prime Minister has lost touch with the public.	的确，由于明显不可避免的事情发生了，那就是布莱尔脱离了公众，因此，他宣布的改革越发看起来像空洞的许诺。


What used to be his charisma is now the permanent re-enactment of the all-too-familiar.	他原先的魅力现在变成了没完没了地重复老生常谈。