As the origin of the current crisis is Syria, the fate of the Syrian population has to be the first priority.	当前危机发源地是叙利亚，因此叙利亚人民的命运必须首先考虑。


But other asylum seekers and migrants must not be forgotten.	但其他寻求庇护者和移民也不能忘记。


Similarly, a European plan must be accompanied by a global response, under the authority of the United Nations and involving its member states.	类似地，欧洲计划必须辅之以全球响应，联合国和相关成员国应该起到领导作用。


This would distribute the burden of the Syrian crisis over a larger number of states, while also establishing global standards for dealing with the problems of forced migration more generally.	这能让跟多国家一起分担叙利亚危机的负担，并为处理更一般的被迫移民问题建立全球标准。


Here are the six components of a comprehensive plan.	一套全面的计划包含六大要素。


First, the EU has to accept at least a million asylum-seekers annually for the foreseeable future.	首先，在可预见的未来，欧盟每年必须接受至少一百万寻求庇护者。


And, to do that, it must share the burden fairly – a principle that a qualified majority finally established at last Wednesday’s summit.	要完成这一目标，欧盟必须公平分担负担——这一原则终于在上周三的峰会中获得了必要的多数赞成。


Adequate financing is critical.	充足的资金至关重要。


The EU should provide €15,000 ($16,800) per asylum-seeker for each of the first two years to help cover housing, health care, and education costs – and to make accepting refugees more appealing to member states.	在最初两年，欧盟每年至少应该为寻求庇护者提供人均15,000欧元以帮助他们覆盖住房、医疗和教育成本——也让成员国感到接受难民是一件有吸引力的事。


It can raise these funds by issuing long-term bonds using its largely untapped AAA borrowing capacity, which will have the added benefit of providing a justified fiscal stimulus to the European economy.	欧盟可以利用其几乎无限量的AAA级借贷能力，通过发行长期债券筹集这笔资金， 同时也为欧洲经济提供合理的财政刺激，获得额外的好处。


It is equally important to allow both states and asylum-seekers to express their preferences, using the least possible coercion.	同样重要的是允许各国和寻求庇护者表达他们的偏好，尽可能避免强制。


Placing refugees where they want to go – and where they are wanted – is a sine qua non of success.	让难民前往他们想去的地方——以及想要他们的地方——是成功的必要条件。


Second, the EU must lead the global effort to provide adequate funding to Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey to support the four million refugees currently living in those countries.	其次，欧盟必须领导全球为黎巴嫩、约旦和土耳其提供充足的资金支持目前生活在上述三国的四百万难民。


Thus far, only a fraction of the funding needed for even basic care has been raised.	目前，只有一小部分基本看护所需资金有了着落。


If education, training, and other essential needs are included, the annual costs are at least €5,000 per refugee, or €20 billion.	如果将教育、培训和其他基本需要也计算在内，每位难民每年至少需要5,000欧元，总数为每年200亿欧元。


EU aid today to Turkey, though doubled last week, still amounts to just €1 billion.	欧盟对土耳其援助上周增加了一倍，但仍只有10亿欧元。


In addition, the EU also should help create special economic zones with preferred trade status in the region, including in Tunisia and Morocco, to attract investment and generate jobs for both locals and refugees.	此外，欧洲还应该帮助该地区（包括突尼斯和摩洛哥）建立特别经济区并给予最惠贸易待遇，以吸引投资、为当地人和难民制造就业机会。


The EU would need to make an annual commitment to frontline countries of at least €8-10 billion, with the balance coming from the United States and the rest of the world.	欧盟需要承诺每年资助前沿国家至少80—100亿欧元，其他部分资金则由美国和世界其他国家负责。


This could be added to the amount of long-term bonds issued to support asylum-seekers in Europe.	这些资金不包括为支持欧洲寻求庇护者而发行的长期债券。


Third, the EU must immediately start building a single EU Asylum and Migration Agency and eventually a single EU Border Guard.	第三，欧盟必须立刻开始建设单一的欧盟庇护和移民局（Asylum and Migration Agency），并最终组建单一的欧盟边防队（Border Guard）。


The current patchwork of 28 separate asylum systems does not work: it is expensive, inefficient, and produces wildly inconsistent results in determining who qualifies for asylum.	目前欧盟的庇护体系由28个独立的庇护制度拼接而成，它成本高昂、效率低下，在决定谁有资格获得庇护方面造成巨大的不一致结果，根本无法有效运行。 新机构将逐渐理顺流程；


The new agency would gradually streamline procedures; establish common rules for employment and entrepreneurship, as well as consistent benefits; and develop an effective, rights-respecting return policy for migrants who do not qualify for asylum.	为就业和企业家精神以及一致利益制定共同规则； 并制定有效的、尊重权利的不合庇护标准移民的遣返政策。


Fourth, safe channels must be established for asylum-seekers, starting with getting them from Greece and Italy to their destination countries.	第四，必须为寻求庇护者建设安全通道，从他们抵达希腊和意大利开始一直到他们到达目标国。


This is very urgent in order to calm the panic.	这是平息恐慌所急需的措施。


The next logical step is to extend safe avenues to the frontline region, thereby reducing the number of migrants who make the dangerous Mediterranean crossing.	逻辑上，下一步是将安全通道扩大到前沿地区，从而降低采取穿越地中海的危险路径的人数。


If asylum-seekers have a reasonable chance of ultimately reaching Europe, they are far more likely to stay where they are.	如果寻求庇护者有相当大的机会最终能够抵达欧洲，他们就更有可能留在所在之处。


This will require negotiating with frontline countries, in cooperation with the UN Refugee Agency, to establish processing centers there – with Turkey as the priority.	这需要与前沿国家进行谈判，并与联合国难民署进行合作，在前沿国家建立处理中心——其中最要紧的是土耳其。


The operational and financial arrangements developed by the EU should be used to establish global standards for the treatment of asylum-seekers and migrants.	欧盟所制定的操作和融资安排应该用于建立处置寻求庇护者和移民的全球标准。


This is the fifth piece of the comprehensive plan.	这是全面计划的第五个要素。


Finally, to absorb and integrate more than a million asylum seekers and migrants a year, the EU needs to mobilize the private sector – NGOs, church groups, and businesses – to act as sponsors.	最后，要想每年吸收并融合超过一百万的寻求庇护者和难民，欧盟需要动员私人部门——非政府组织、教会组织和企业——赞助。


This will require not only sufficient funding, but also the human and IT capacity to match migrants and sponsors.	这不但需要充足的资金，也需要匹配移民和赞助者的人力和IT能力。


The exodus from war-torn Syria should never have become a crisis.	逃离饱受战争摧残的叙利亚的风潮原本不必演变为一场危机。


It was long in the making, easy to foresee, and eminently manageable by Europe and the international community.	它形成过程漫长，很容易就能预见，并且欧洲和国际社会可以轻松管理。


Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has now also produced a six-point plan to address the crisis.	匈牙利总理奥班目前也提出了解决危机的六点计划。


But his plan, which subordinates the human rights of asylum-seekers and migrants to the security of borders, threatens to divide and destroy the EU by renouncing the values on which it was built and violating the laws that are supposed to govern it.	但他的计划认为边界安全重于寻求庇护者和难民的人权，与欧盟立盟价值观相悖，也违反了治理欧盟的法律，有可能分裂并毁灭欧盟。


The EU must respond with a genuinely European asylum policy that will put an end to the panic and the unnecessary human suffering.	欧盟必须应之以能够结束恐慌和不必要的人道灾难的真正的欧洲庇护政策。


Resuscitating Africa’s Health Care	复兴非洲的医疗保健制度


FREETOWN, SIERRA LEONE – In late October, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) confirmed what many had long suspected: millions of dollars donated to fight the Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and Sierra Leone had been mismanaged and stolen.	塞拉利昂弗里敦——10月底，红十字和红新月国际联合会（IFRC）证实了很多人长久以来所怀疑的事实：为抗击几内亚和塞拉利昂埃博拉病毒爆发所捐赠的成百上千万美元一直管理不善并遭到盗用。


The world’s oldest humanitarian organization was “outraged” by the findings, it said.	据说这两家全世界历史最悠久的人道主义机构被这样的调查结果所“激怒”。


Needless to say, they were not alone.	毋须多言，还有很多人像它们一样。


I was national coordinator of Ebola burials for Sierra Leone at the height of the epidemic.	在疫情高峰期，我曾负责协调塞拉利昂埃博拉致死者的埋葬工作。


For much of the crisis, beginning in 2014, we lacked the equipment and materials needed to contain the deadly virus.	在2014年开始的危机绝大部分时期，我们都严重缺乏遏制这种致命病毒所需的设备和材料。


We lost many health workers amid the dearth of resources, and the thought of losing my own life – leaving behind a family and two young children – terrified me daily.	在资源匮乏的情况下，我们失去了许多卫生工作者，丢掉自己性命的想法——身后抛下家庭和两个年幼的子女——每天都让我感到害怕。


These were anxious times for my country.	在这段时期，焦虑情绪弥漫在整个国家。


That anxiety has not vanished.	这样的焦虑情绪并没有消失。


My thoughts frequently return to colleagues who died during the heroic fight.	我的思绪时常回到在这场英勇的斗争中死去的同事们身上。


And now, with confirmation that huge sums of aid were stolen, the grief is compounded by anger and disappointment – at the fraud itself, but also for what it says about Africa’s struggles to improve health-care access and outcomes.	而现在，因为确认巨额援助资金被盗，这种悲伤的情绪又掺杂了愤怒和失望——这样的不满既针对欺诈行为本身，也针对这件事所体现出来的非洲改善医疗机会和成果的斗争现状。


The rampant fraud illustrates how problematic it can be when donors channel resources through big NGOs like the Red Cross.	猖獗的欺诈行为说明捐助者通过像红十字会这样的大型非政府组织来分配资源问题有多严重。


And the IFRC’s revelation is likely just the tip of the iceberg.	而这次红十字会所揭露的事实很可能仅仅是冰山一角。


Sierra Leone’s minister of health and sanitation first warned of the possibility of widespread fraud in May 2015; he even called for a full accounting of money received and spent.	2015年5月，塞拉利昂医疗和卫生部长最先警告可能会发生普遍的欺诈现象； 他甚至呼吁对资金的收支开展全面的核查工作。


Unfortunately, his request was largely ignored.	不幸的是，他的要求在很大程度上被忽略了。


The silence was lamentable, but not surprising; tracking donor funds is extremely difficult.	沉默虽然可悲，但并不值得大惊小怪：跟踪捐助资金是极其困难的。


When governments and private donors pledge monetary aid, the funds typically pass through a chain of large groups that determine how it will be allocated.	当政府和私人捐助机构承诺提供资金援助时，这些资金如何分配通常会通过一系列大型团体来做出决策。


But a full accounting often is never provided.	但这些团体往往从不提供完整的会计记录。


For example, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that $3.3 billion was donated to the countries that were hardest hit by Ebola.	例如，联合国人道主义事务协调办公室估计外界向受埃博拉疫情影响最严重的国家捐赠了33亿美元。


And yet, the office’s data do not show how the money was spent.	然而，这家机构的数据却并没有显示资金的具体去向。


There is widespread agreement among governments, development partners, and relief agencies that in a crisis like that caused by Ebola – or any other health emergency, for that matter – strong financial management is critical.	各国政府、发展伙伴和救济机构之间已经达成了广泛的共识，那就是在像埃博拉病毒所引发的这场危机——或其它任何医疗紧急状况下——强有力的财务管理绝对至关重要。


Only with disciplined budgeting can staff be properly equipped and paid, hospitals stocked, and triage centers opened.	只有采用严格的预算编制制度，才能确保员工得到恰当的设备和薪酬、医院采购充足的药品储备，急救中心也才能开放。


When well-intentioned pledges fail to reach those in need, the result is measured in a lack of resources – from a shortage of doctors to a lack of vehicles to transport the sick and bury the dead.	如果善意的承诺未能到达那些需要的人手中，结果必然造成资源的缺乏——从缺少医生到缺少运送患者和掩埋死者的车辆。


Anger was my first emotion upon learning of the IFRC funding fraud.	听到红十字会资金欺诈丑闻时我首先感到的是愤怒。


But it is the second sentiment – disappointment – that must drive Africa forward.	但必须驱动非洲前行的是第二种感觉——失望。


If the continent is to make gains in achieving universal health coverage (UHC) and improving the quality of health care for everyone, it must start by ensuring that resources are used efficiently and fairly.	如果非洲大陆要想实现全民健康覆盖（UHC）和提高所有人的医疗质量，首先要做的就必须是确保资源得到高效和公平的运用。


Some progress has been made in strengthening national planning processes and principles.	在加强国家规划程序和原则方面已经取得了一些进展。


And, according to the UHC 2030 Alliance, which works to improve the quality of and access to health-care systems around the world, recipient countries have done far more than their international counterparts to establish more effective budgetary frameworks.	而根据旨在改善世界各地医疗体系质量和普及程度的全民健康覆盖2030联盟的数据，受援国在建立更加有效的预算框架方面所做的工作远远超过国际上其他国家。


But Africa still has a long way to go before financial management and procurement systems meet adequate standards.	但非洲在建成完全符合标准的管理和采购系统之前还有很长的路要走。


To improve the quality of Africa’s health-care systems, and avoid a repeat of the IFRC’s Ebola funding fiasco, countries that receive aid need better financial management protocols.	要想提高非洲医疗保健系统的质量，要想避免再次发生像国际红十字会埃博拉病毒捐赠资金那样的丑闻，受援国必须制定更好的财务管理规则。


In health emergencies, immediate aid is essential.	在爆发医疗紧急状况时，直接援助必不可少。


But if that aid is to be allocated properly, recipient countries must already have the ability to manage large sums transparently.	但如果要确保援助妥善分配，那么受援国必须有能力以透明的方式管理大笔的款项。


The goal must be to ensure that recipient countries have oversight over how donor funds are spent.	我们的目标必须是确保受援国有能力监督捐助资金的使用状况。


At the moment, the opposite is happening, and most African countries are like the parched sailor adrift at sea – we see money everywhere, but we have no ability to use it.	但目前情况却恰恰相反。 大部分非洲国家像口干舌燥的水手漂流在茫茫大海上——到处都能看到钱，但我们却根本无法使用。


To drink from the ocean of aid, African countries must first take control of their health-care funding destinies.	要想从援助资金的汪洋大海中喝水，非洲国家必须首先将医疗保健资金的命运掌握在自己手上。


To do that, resources much be used efficiently.	要想做到这一点，资源必须得到有效的利用。


A regional and sector-wide approach is critical to improving coordination and preventing duplication.	区域和行业惯例对改善协调和防止重复拨款都至关重要。


After the war and genocide in Rwanda, for example, the country’s government required that all development partners work according to the government’s agenda.	例如，在卢旺达战争和种族灭绝后，该国政府要求所有发展伙伴都按照政府议程开展工作。


Today, Rwanda is among the world leaders in health-care access and outcomes.	今天，卢旺达在医疗保健服务和效果方面处于世界领先地位。


Rwanda’s experience should serve as a model for other countries.	卢旺达的经验应当成为其他国家学习的榜样。


As the world observed Universal Health Coverage Day in December, I was left to reflect on the horrors of the last few years, and consider what steps we must take to improve health care in the future.	在世界各国将目光聚焦12月全民健康覆盖日时，我独自反思过去几年的恐怖状况，思考我们应当采取哪些措施来改善未来的医疗保健工作。


In Sierra Leone, as elsewhere, the focus must be on strong leadership, governance, and partnerships.	在塞拉利昂和在其他任何地方一样，我们必须把重点放在强有力的领导、执政和伙伴关系上。


But most of all, we must use our collective dissatisfaction with past failures to fuel efforts to make quality health care a reality for everyone.	但最重要的是，我们必须利用我们对过去失败的集体不满来推动为所有人提供优质医疗服务的工作。


The Real Side of Fake News	假新闻的真实面


NEW YORK – Today’s digital devices and social networks deliver so much information that even the savviest consumer cannot evaluate all of it.	纽约—如今，数字设备和社交网络为我们带来浩如烟淼的信息，即使是最精明的信息消费者，也无法评估所有信息。


We seem to be living in a version of Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, where truth is drowned in a sea of irrelevance.	我们好像生活在赫胥黎（Aldous Huxley）的《美丽新世界》（Brave New World）中，真相淹没在无关事项的汪洋中。


But the future need not be the dystopia that the present seems to suggest.	但未来未必是当下似乎意味着的反乌托邦。


The share of Americans who get their news from social media has grown rapidly in recent years, to 62% as of 2016.	从社交媒体获取新闻的美国人比例近几年来增长迅猛，2016年已达62%。


And yet, according to a recent study by the Pew Research Center, media, academic, technology, and publishing professionals have increasingly come to view the Internet as a cesspool of hate speech, anger, and trolls.	但据皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）的一项最新研究，媒体、学术、技术和出版专业人士越来越认为互联网已经成为充斥着仇恨言论、愤怒和恶意挑衅垃圾场。


Much of what arrives on our digital doorstep these days is best described as “fake news”: hoax stories, propaganda, and other forms of misinformation.	如今，来到我们的数字家门口的大部分东西最多只算得上是“假新闻”：骗人的故事、宣传和其他形式的误导信息。


But while “fake news” is a useful label for a very real problem, it does not tell us if we are in fact living in a “post-truth” world; and, if so, whom we should hold responsible.	但尽管“假新闻”是一个非常真的问题的有用的标签，它并没有告诉我们，我们是否真的生活在一个“后真相”（post-truth）的世界中； 以及，如果答案是肯定的话，我们中谁必须为此负责。


To answer those questions, we need to examine the fake-news infrastructure.	要回答这些问题，我们需要考察一下假新闻基础设施。


Many of the anonymous political hobbyists and social hackers who are creating and disseminating fake news do so on Reddit.	炮制和散播假新闻的匿名政治爱好者和社交黑客（social hacker）的“根据地”是Reddit。


With around 300 million monthly users globally, Reddit is the fourth most visited website in the US, and eighth in the world, as of this month.	Reddit每月全球用户量高达3亿，是美国访问量第四大的网站，在全世界则名列第八（本月数据）。


A casual observer who visits Reddit will find what looks like a Web 1.0 message board that is ridden with near-indecipherable jargon and acronyms, such as “HH,” “cucks,” “centipedes,” and “God Emperor of the Internet.”	偶然访问Reddit的观察者会发现一个Web 1. 0时代的公告板，上面充斥着很难看懂的术语和缩写，诸如“HH”、“cucks”、“centipedes”和“互联网神皇”（God Emperor of the Internet）等。


These are insider code words that did not emerge accidentally.	这些都是并非偶然出现的暗语。


They respectively refer to “Heil Hitler,” critics of the so-called alt-right, Trump supporters, and, of course, Trump himself.	它们的意思分别是“嘿希特勒”、所谓的另类右翼的批评者、特朗普支持者，当然，最后一个就是指特朗普本人。


Despite being wildly popular, Reddit is mentioned in mainstream media coverage only when its most controversial conversations boil over, as occurred in 2008, when a Reddit subpage (or subreddit) called “Jailbait” provided a platform for users to exchange child pornography.	尽管Reddit在网上非常热门，但只有在其最具争议的帖子“炸锅”后，才会被主流媒体提及，比如，2008年Reddit的一个名叫“Jailbait”（祸水妞儿）的子页面（版面）被用户用作了儿童色情交易平台。


Following a public outcry, Reddit banned the subreddit in 2011, as it did again when the public took notice of a subreddit about stalking women called “CreepShots.”	引起众怒后，Reddit在2011年封禁了这个版面。 同样的事情发生在一个名叫“CreepShots”（爬拍）的关于尾随女性的版面身上。


Still, misogyny and hate speech have continued to flow freely on the site.	但是，“直男癌”和仇恨言论仍然在Reddit网站上自由传播。


In an ugly masquerade of free speech, Reddit has hosted subreddits called “BeatingWomen,” “FatPeopleHate,” and “The Chimpire” (promoting racism).	在言论自由的丑陋掩护下，Reddit充斥着名叫“BeatingWomen”（打女人）、“FatPeopleHate”（讨厌胖子）和“TheChimpire”（推动种族主义）等版面。


Most recently, a “Pizzagate” subreddit hosted conspiracy theorists claiming that Hillary Clinton ran a child pornography ring out of a pizza restaurant in Washington, DC.	最近，在一个名叫“Pizzagate”（披萨门）的版面上，有人发出阴谋论的帖子，说希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）借一家华盛顿的披萨店做儿童色情生意。


When Edgar Maddison Welch, armed with an AR-15, arrived at the establishment and started firing off rounds, the media finally, but only temporarily, took notice of Reddit’s role in the fake-news phenomenon.	直到埃德加·麦迪逊·韦尔奇（Edgar Maddison Welch）手持AR-15闯入这家披萨店连开数枪，媒体才终于注意到Reddit在假新闻现象中所扮演的角色——而这种关注也只是一阵风。


Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian, for his part, doesn’t seem to spend much time worrying about the potential dangers posed by his website.	至于Reddit联合创始人亚历克西斯·奥哈尼安（Alexis Ohanian），他似乎没有因为他的网站所造成的潜在危险而担心多久。


When Ohanian delivered a keynote address at the popular SXSW Interactive Festival in Austin, Texas, this year, he didn’t talk about the line between free speech and hate speech.	今年，奥哈尼安在德克萨斯州奥斯汀市的西南偏南互动节（SXSW Interactive Festival）发表了主旨演讲，其中并未谈及言论自由和仇恨言论之间的界限。


Nor did he mention the infamous subreddit “The_Donald,” which has more than 300,000 registered users, and may have played a critical role in electing Donald Trump.	他也没有提到臭名昭著的Reddit版面“The_Donald”（唐纳德），该版面已有300,000多名注册用户，在唐纳德·特朗普的竞选过程中扮演了关键角色。


Instead, he spoke about a Reddit user called “Shitty Watercolour,” and he declared “pseudonymity” to be the hallmark of freedom and uncensored speech.	相反，他谈到了一个名叫“Shitty Watercolour”（劣等水彩）的Reddit用户，宣称“署假名”是自由和不受审查的言论的标志。


During an “Ask Me Anything” session after his speech, Ohanian took no questions about Pizzagate, “The_Donald,” or hate speech.	在演讲的“不设限问答”缓解，奥哈尼安没有接受关于Pizzagate、“The_Donald”和仇恨言论的问题。


To be sure, Reddit isn’t the only supporter of the kind of online anonymity that allows users to distribute hate speech and fake news without consequences.	平心而论，Reddit不是允许用户传播仇恨言论和假新闻而不承担任何后果的在线匿名的唯一支持者。


And there are those who worry that cleaning up Reddit will only drive the trolls underground to less public sites like Voat.	也有人担心，清除Reddit无非是让挑衅帖子转移到Voat等不那么热门的网站。


But while other large online platforms such as Facebook are taking steps to address the problem, Reddit remains defiant.	但尽管Facebook等其他大型在线平台正在采取措施解决这个问题，Reddit却仍然无动于衷。


Reddit’s relative immunity from criticism may help to explain its indifference.	Reddit对于批评的相对免疫有助于解释它的冷漠。


As a top-ten site for US web traffic, it acts as a major conduit for media outlets, which use it to increase their page views, and thus their advertising revenues.	作为位列美国流量前十名的网站，它其实是新闻媒体的一条重要渠道，用来增加页面访问，从而提高广告收入。


Reddit itself is owned by some familiar names.	Reddit的所有者可谓大名鼎鼎。


Its single largest shareholder is Advance Publications, the parent company of Condé Nast; and its other investors include Marc Andreessen, Peter Thiel, Sam Altman, Ron Conway, Snoop Dogg, Jared Leto, and Josh Kushner, the brother of White House Senior Adviser Jared Kushner.	最大股东是Advance Publications公司，即康泰纳仕（Condé Nast）的母公司； 其他投资人包括马克·安德森（Marc Andreessen）、彼得·提尔（Peter Thiel）、山姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）、罗恩·康威（Ron Conway）、史努普·道格（Snoop Dogg）、贾雷德·勒陀（Jared Leto）和约什·库什纳（Josh Kushner，白宫高级顾问贾雷德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）的弟弟）。


Sadly, none of these high-profile investors seems to have objected to Reddit’s hosting of subreddits called “WhiteNationalism,” “rapeisfun,” “BurningKids,” “cutefemalecorpses,” and so on.	悲哀的是，所有这些高层次投资人似乎都没有反对Reddit放任“WhiteNationalism”（白人民族主义）、“rapeisfun”（强奸真爽）、“BurningKids”（烧死儿童）、“cutefemalecorpses”（可爱的女尸）等版面大行其道。


Fake news is a symptom of a larger problem.	假新闻是一个更大的问题的表征。


With advertising revenues declining, media organizations are increasingly desperate for clicks.	随着广告收入的下降，媒体越来越渴望点击量。


Most readers do not hesitate to share or re-tweet headlines that support their own biases and beliefs.	大部分读者都会毫不犹豫地分享或转发支持自身偏见和信念的标题。


And technology companies shrug and claim that they are “just a platform,” while they reap profits from the traffic that fake news brings in.	技术公司对此不屑一顾地表示它们“只是平台”，而转身就从假新闻带来的流量中攫取利润。


So, what can news consumers do to push back against fake news?	那么，新闻消费者可以做些什么反击假新闻？


For starters, we should be demanding that trusted media outlets avoid hosting their content on anonymous sites like Reddit.	首先，我们应该要求可信的新闻媒体不要在Reddit等匿名网站上发布内容。


And we should apply more pressure on companies like Advance Publications to take responsibility for the sites they own and what happens there.	我们也应该向Advance Publications等公司施加更多压力，要求它们在为它们所拥有的网站所发生的事情负责。


Above all, that means rolling back the culture of digital anonymity that facilitates hate speech and misinformation.	最重要的是，这意味着要扭转便利仇恨言论和误导信息的数字匿名文化。


Digital platforms should require those who espouse ideas and share information to sign their names to their output.	数字平台应该要求“点赞”和分享信息的人在输出端署名。


Pseudonyms are for fiction writers.	假名是给小说作者用的。


Reducing Inequality and Poverty in America	减少美国的不平等和贫困


CAMBRIDGE – With a new American president and Congress taking office just six months from now, the time has come to rethink the government’s programs aimed at helping the poor.	坎布里奇—再过六个月，美国就要迎来新总统和国会，因此，是时候反思一下政府旨在帮助穷人的计划了。


The current election season has reflected widespread concern about the issue of inequality.	当前选举季反映出人们普遍担心不平等性问题。


Reducing poverty, rather than penalizing earned success, is the right focus for dealing with it.	减少贫困，而不是惩罚奋斗得来的成功，才是解决这一问题的正途。


The United States government now spends more than $600 billion a year on programs to help the poor.	目前，美国政府每年要花6,000亿多美元用于扶贫计划。


That’s about 4% of America’s total GDP.	这相当于美国总GDP的4%左右。


Half of those outlays are for health programs, including Medicaid and the health-insurance subsidies under the 2010 Affordable Care Act (so-called Obamacare).	这些支出中的一半用于卫生项目，包括医疗补助和根据2010年平价医疗法（所谓的奥巴马医保）的医疗保险补助。


The other half are for a complex range of programs including food stamps, housing subsidies, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and cash relief.	另一半用于各种复杂的项目，包括食品券、住房补贴、低收入税收优惠以及现金救济。


To put that 4% of GDP in perspective, the federal government’s total revenue from the personal income tax is less than 9% of GDP, implying that nearly half is spent on these means-tested programs.	考虑到这个GDP的4%，联邦政府从个人所得税中所获得的总收入不到GDP的9%，这意味着近一半用在了这些基于收入调查结果的计划上。 这些计划的支出也超过了防务支出（占GDP的3.


Spending on these programs also exceeds that for defense (3.3% of GDP) and the 3.3% of GDP spent on all other nondefense discretionary programs.	3%）和占GDP的3. 3%的所有其他非防务自由裁量计划支出总额。


But, despite this large expenditure, the proportion of the population living in poverty is officially estimated at 15%, about the same as it was 50 years ago.	但是，尽管开支巨大，官方估算的贫困人口比例仍在15%，与50年前基本持平。


Experts agree, however, that the government’s poverty measure doesn’t correctly reflect the progress that has occurred, because official statistics focus only on cash income and ignore almost all of the government’s transfer payments.	但是，专家们一致认为，政府的贫困指标不能正确反映所取得的进步，因为官方统计数字只关注现金收入，而忽略了几乎全部政府转移支付。


Many of those who are poor, or would otherwise be poor, are also aided by Social Security benefits for retirees and survivors, and by Medicare for the disabled and those over age 65.	许多贫困人口，或若非如此就要沦为贫困的人口，也得到面向退休者和幸存者的社会安全福利以及面向65岁以上失能人口的医疗补助的支持。


Because eligibility for benefits under these programs does not depend on income or wealth, the amounts spent for these programs are not included in outlays targeted at the poor.	这些计划的福利发放标准不取决于收入或财富，因此这些计划的支出没有包括在面向贫困人口的支出中。


The existing approach to helping the poor needs reform.	现有扶贫方针需要改革。


Myriad overlapping programs with different eligibility rules are difficult for the poor to navigate, create bad work incentives, and are unnecessarily costly to taxpayers.	各种发放标准不一的叠床架屋的计划让贫困人口难以驾驭，形成了坏的工作激励，也给纳税人造成了不必要的负担。


The largest of the ten major means-tested programs is the food subsidy program, now called SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program).	十大基于收入调查的计划中规模最大的一项是食品补贴计划，现在称为SNAP（补充营养补助计划）。


Some 46 million people, about one-seventh of the US population, receive monthly benefits totaling $75 billion per year.	4,600万人，大约相当于美国人口的七分之一，按月领取福利，总额高达每年750亿美元。


Despite its widespread use, the government estimates that only about 70% of those who are eligible receive benefits.	尽管该计划使用广泛，但政府估算大约只有70%的合格补贴对象能得到这项福利。


Eligibility to receive SNAP benefits is limited to households with incomes below 130% of the poverty level, about $1,700 a month for a family of three.	SNAP福利的资格限于收入低于贫困线的130%的家庭，即三口之家每个月1,700美元左右。


Because a decision by a second adult to work could eliminate eligibility, the program discourages employment and reduces earned incomes.	如果有两个成年人参加工作，就有可能不再具备领取这项福利的资格，因此该计划阻碍了就业，降低了所得收入。


Although SNAP is described as a nutrition program, the average benefit of $130 per month is far less than these low-income households spend on food.	SNAP被描述为一项营养计划，但其平均发放规模每月130美元远远低于低收入家庭的食品开支。


The program is thus really equivalent to a cash transfer.	因此，该计划其实等价于现金转移支付。


As such, it dominates the program launched by President Bill Clinton to provide cash assistance with significant restrictions.	照此，它成为比尔·克林顿总统实施的、以严格限制提供现金补助的计划的主要组成部分。


When Clinton declared in 1996 that he would “end welfare as we know it,” he worked with Congress to create the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, which requires recipients to work and limits their lifetime eligibility to 60 months.	1996年，克林顿宣布他将“结束我们所知道的福利”，他与国会一起推出了需要家庭临时补助（TANF）计划，该计划要求受益家庭参加工作，并且一生中总受益月份不得超过60个月。


As a result of these conditions, the $17 billion program has declined in scale and has a participation rate of less than 50% percent of eligible households.	这些条件所带来的结果是这项170亿美元的计划规模缩水，并且合格家庭参与率不足50%。


How should programs for the poor be changed to increase participation and avoid adverse effects on work incentives?	扶贫计划如何改变以增加参与率并避免给工作激励造成不利影响？


One bad idea that is getting a surprising amount of favorable attention is the so-called Universal Income Benefit: providing enough money to all households (below the age of 65) to keep them above the poverty line, even if they had no other income.	一个令人意外地获得支持的坏主意是所谓的全民所得福利（Universal Income Benefit）：向所有（65岁以下）家庭发足够的钱让他们生活在贫困线以上，即使他们没有其他所得。


The amount given to each household would depend on the number of adults and children, but not on the household’s income or wealth.	每个家庭获得的数额取决于成年人和儿童的数量，而不是家庭所得或财富。


This unconditional transfer would solve the problem of lifting all Americans out of poverty.	这一无条件转移支付能解决让所有美国人脱贫的问题。


But it would be impossibly expensive.	但它将无比昂贵。


Even if it replaced all of the means-tested programs for the poor other than the health programs, its net cost would exceed $1.5 trillion a year, or more than 9% of GDP.	即使它取代除医疗计划之外的所有基于收入调查的扶贫计划，其净成本也将超过每年1. 5万亿美元或GDP的9%。


To pay for that without raising the deficit would require doubling the personal income tax.	要想支付如此巨大的数额而不增加赤字，必须将个人所得税提高一倍。


So the Universal Income Benefit is definitely a non-starter.	因此，全民所得福利绝不是好的开端。


The best way to help the poor is the negative income tax plan originally proposed by both Milton Friedman (the conservative economist at the University of Chicago) and James Tobin (the liberal economist at Yale University).	帮助穷人的最好办法是由米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman，芝加哥大学保守派经济学家）和詹姆斯·托宾（James Tobin，耶鲁大学自由派经济学家）首先提出的负所得税计划。


All households below the age of 65 would receive an amount of money that would keep them out of poverty if they had no other income; but the amount of the transfer would decline gradually as their household income rose.	所有65岁以下家庭，如果没有其他所得，都将获得让他们生活在贫困线以上的钱； 但转移支付的数额将随着家庭所得的增加而下降。


Above a certain threshold, the household would pay an income tax as they do today; below that level, the “tax” would be negative.	在到达了一定的阈值后，家庭将支付和今天一样的所得税； 而在这一水平之下，所得“税”为负。


The rate at which the transfer declines would be set to limit adverse incentives while protecting the household’s living standard.	转移支付额的减少速度既要遏制负面激励，也要保护家庭生活水平。


The health-care programs for the poor would continue.	穷人医疗计划将继续保留。


While there is no perfect solution to the difficult problem of dealing with poverty, some solutions are better – often much better – than others.	解决贫困这一难题没有完美的方案，但某些方案比其他方案更好——常常要好得多。


The negative income tax may be the best way possible to achieve simplicity, inclusiveness, and moderate taxpayer cost.	负所得税也许是实现简化、包容并不给纳税人造成沉重负担的最佳办法。


The Referendum Charade	全民公决谜题


NEW YORK – Referendums are all the rage in Europe.	纽约——全民公决在欧洲风靡一时。


In June, British voters will decide whether the United Kingdom should remain in the European Union.	今年六月，英国选民将就英国是否留在欧盟举行全民公决。


The Hungarian government has called for a referendum on accepting its quota of refugees set by the EU.	匈牙利政府也已呼吁就是否接受欧盟设定的难民配额举行全民公决。


Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has already said that Hungary would resist letting them in.	匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班已明确表示匈牙利将抵制移民入境。


“All the terrorists are basically migrants,” he said.	“所有恐怖分子基本都是移民，”他说。


The referendum is likely to go his way.	而公投结果很可能对他有利。


Perhaps the oddest referendum will take place in April in the Netherlands, following a successful petition campaign.	继一次成功的请愿活动后，今年4月荷兰可能将举行最奇怪的全民公决。


The question put to Dutch citizens will be whether the Netherlands should sign up to an association agreement between the EU and Ukraine.	荷兰民众公决的问题是荷兰是否应当签署欧盟和乌克兰结盟协议。


All other EU member countries have already agreed, but without the Dutch it cannot be ratified.	所有其他欧盟成员国均已签署，但没有荷兰人的首肯就无法批准这项协议。


One might think that the details of trade agreements and tariff barriers with Ukraine would baffle most Dutch voters, and one might also wonder why they should care enough to hold a referendum.	有人可能认为与乌克兰贸易协定和关税障碍等繁琐细节将难住多数荷兰选民，而且有人也可能会问他们怎么会关心到举行公投的地步。


But referendums fit the populist mood that is sweeping many countries, from Donald Trump’s America to Orbán’s Hungary.	但公投迎合了正在席卷许多国家的民粹主义情绪，从美国的唐纳德·特朗普到匈牙利的欧尔班莫不如此。


Referendums are an example of what is known as “direct democracy.”	公投是所谓“直接民主”的实例。


The voice of the people (or rather, the People) is not heard through their elected representatives in government, but directly through plebiscites.	民众（或人民）不是通过政府的民选代表来表达意见，而是直接通过公民投票的形式。


When Winston Churchill suggested in 1945 that the British people should vote in a referendum on whether to continue the wartime coalition government, the Labour leader Clement Attlee opposed it.	当1945年温斯顿·丘吉尔提出英国民众应当就是否继续战时联合政府举行全民公决时，工党领袖克莱门特·艾德礼明确表示反对。


He called referendums un-British and a “device of dictators and demagogues.”	他称全民公决违反英式传统，而且是“独裁者和煽动家可以利用的工具。 ”


Attlee was right.	艾德礼没有说错。


Even though referendums are sometimes used in representative democracies, as when British voters elected to stay in the European Economic Community in 1975, dictators are much keener on them.	尽管代议制民主有时也进行公投，比如英国选民1975年曾投票决定留在欧共体，但独裁者显然更热衷于使用全民公投的方式。


After invading Austria in 1938, Hitler asked the Austrians in a plebiscite whether they wanted to be annexed by Germany.	继1938年入侵奥地利后，希特勒曾要求奥地利人就是否愿意被德国兼并举行全民公决。


It was a choice they could not really refuse.	这样一种选择他们无法真正拒绝。


Despots like to be backed by plebiscites, because they do not only pretend to represent the People; they are the People.	独裁者都愿意得到全民公决的支持，因为他们不仅假装代表民众； 他们就是民众本身。


The vogue for referendums today reflects distrust of political representatives.	今天全民公决成为时尚反映出对政治代表的不信任情绪。


Normally, in a liberal democracy, we vote for men and women expecting them to study and decide on issues that most ordinary citizens have neither the time nor the knowledge to deal with themselves.	通常，在自由民主社会里，我们投票选出政治代表就是让他们研究并且决定多数普通民众既没有时间也没有能力处理的问题。


Trade agreements are typically something that voters would not be asked to concern themselves with directly.	贸易协定通常并不属于直接要求选民关注的问题。


A referendum is not usually an accurate sounding of people’s rational faculties or a test of their expertise.	公投往往并非对民众理性能力的准确反映，亦非对其专业知识的测试结果。


Referendums are about gut feelings, which can be easily manipulated by demagogues.	全民公决仅仅是出于直觉，而直觉又很容易受到煽动者的操控。


That is why demagogues like them.	煽动者也因此非常喜欢全民公决。


So far, the Brexit debate in Britain has been almost entirely emotional, focusing on the historical greatness of Britain, the horrors of foreign tyrannies, or, conversely, fears of what might happen if the status quo were to be upset.	迄今为止，英国的退欧辩论几乎完全基于感性，滔滔不绝地谈论英国在历史上如何伟大、外国暴政多么恐怖，或者反过来，关于打破现状所引发的担忧情绪。


Very few British voters have a clue about how the European Commission actually works, or the role of the European Council, but most have some feeling about Britain standing alone against Hitler, or the prospect of being “swamped” by immigrants.	极少有英国选民了解欧盟委员会实际的工作方式或欧洲理事会的作用，但多数却对英国独自对抗希特勒、或者被移民“淹没”的未来前景很有感觉。


Usually, in a referendum, people decide on where they stand for reasons that have little to do with the question put to them.	通常在全民公决中，人们决策的理由与向他们提出的问题没有任何关系。


Some people in Britain might choose to leave the EU just because they don’t like Prime Minister David Cameron, who is in favor of staying in.	有些英国人选择退出欧盟可能仅仅因为卡梅伦赞成留在欧盟，而他们则不喜欢卡梅伦首相。


Voters in the Netherlands and France voted against the proposed EU Constitution in 2005.	荷兰及法国选民2005年投票反对拟议中的欧盟宪法。


Very few had probably ever read the Constitution; it is in fact an unreadable document. The “no” vote stemmed from general discontent with political elites associated with “Brussels.”	他们投“否决票”主要因为对“布鲁塞尔”政治精英普遍怀有不满情绪。


To some extent, this was understandable – and not without justification.	某种程度上，这种情绪也可以理解——并且也并非全无道理。


EU negotiations are complex and opaque to most people, and EU institutions are remote.	欧盟谈判对多数人而言复杂且不透明，而欧盟机构又似乎遥不可及。


No wonder many citizens feel that they have lost control over their political affairs.	难怪不少民众觉得他们已经失去了对政治问题的控制。


Democratic national governments look more and more impotent, and the EU is not a democracy.	民主国家政府看似越来越无能，而欧盟又并非民主体系。


The desire for referendums is not only a sign of internal national divisions; it is yet another symptom of a global populist demand to “take back our country.”	对公投的渴望不仅是国家内部分裂的表现； 而且是全球民粹主义者要求“夺回国家”的另一种表象而已。


This may be mostly delusional (outside the EU, Britain may actually have less power over its fate than if it stays in), but the crisis of confidence needs to be taken seriously.	上述想法可能大都是痴心妄想（如果退出欧盟，英国的实力可能比留在欧盟更弱），但我们必须认真对待目前的信任危机。


After all, even if referendums are often frivolous, their consequences are not.	毕竟，即便公投往往无聊肤浅，但却可能带来严重的后果。


What happens in Ukraine is important.	乌克兰所发生的一切非常重要。


Britain’s exit from the EU could have devastating results not only for the UK, but for the rest of Europe, too.	英国退出欧盟不仅会为英国自身、而且会为欧盟其他国家带来灾难性的后果。


Hungary’s successful example of refusing to cooperate in solving the refugee crisis could provoke other countries to follow suit.	匈牙利拒绝合作解决移民危机的成功范例可能促使其他国家纷纷效仿。


The fundamental problem is that a large number of people feel unrepresented.	最根本的问题是很多人觉得没有人代表自己。


Old party politics, governed by old elites working traditional networks of influence, no longer give many citizens a sense of participating in a democracy.	老式的党派政治，在旧式精英掌控传统影响网络的前提下，导致很多民众民主参与感的缺失。


The extraordinary influence of a handful of billionaires in the US, and the lack of transparency in EU politics, aggravate this problem.	少数亿万富翁在美国的非凡影响力、以及欧盟政治缺乏透明度进一步恶化了已经存在的问题。


Direct democracy will not reestablish people's confidence in their political representatives.	直接政治无法实现民众对政治代表的信心重塑。


But if a greater degree of trust is not restored, power will go to leaders who claim to speak in the People’s voice.	但如果不恢复更大程度的信任，权力将落到那些自称为民众说话的领袖手中。


And nothing good ever came from that.	这种情况从来不会产生好的结果。


Putting a Price on Rainforests	为热带雨林定价


NEW YORK – In early October, shortly after Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter that his company could, given the opportunity, rebuild the island’s electrical grid using solar power.	纽约——10月初，玛利亚飓风在波多黎各登陆后不久，特斯拉首席执行官艾伦·马斯克就在推特上表示他的企业可以利用这次机会用太阳能重建岛上的电网。


Coming in the midst of so much human suffering, it was a bold claim.	在如此深重的人类灾难中，这是一个大胆的主张。


But from a technological perspective, the timing was perfect.	但从技术的角度看，这个时机非常完美。


By late October, solar panels and high-capacity batteries had been installed at San Juan’s Hospital del Niño, and additional projects are in the works.	截止10月底，太阳能电池板和大容量电池已经在圣胡安医院完成安装，同时其他项目也在推进中。


This type of response to a natural disaster – replacing a fossil-fuel-reliant power grid with renewable energy – should be applauded.	用这种方式来应对自然灾害——即用可再生能源取代化石燃料来修建电网——应当得到赞扬。


But no matter how clean and efficient renewable energy sources may be, they will never fully mitigate the climatic effects that are bringing more hurricanes like Maria ashore.	但无论可再生能源如何清洁高效，导致玛利亚等飓风频繁上岸的气候效应却永远无法被彻底根除。


There is another way to do that, and it is far cheaper than what Musk has proposed.	要想实现目标其实还有另外一种方法，而且比马斯克的计划要廉价得多。


Puerto Rico is home to one of the most efficient and inexpensive tools available in the fight against climate change: rainforests.	波多黎各拥有应对气候变化最有效也最廉价的工具之一：那就是热带雨林。


On the island’s eastern tip, the nearly 29,000-acre El Yunque National Forest is one of the Caribbean’s most important systems for capturing and storing carbon.	在岛屿的东侧，近 29,000英亩的云雀国家森林公园是加勒比海地区碳捕获和碳储存一套最重要的系统。


Maria destroyed the forest, too.	玛利亚飓风也摧毁了森林。


But tech CEOs have not tweeted about restoring that resource, because, at the moment, they see no viable business model for saving trees.	但科技公司的首席执行官们却并没有在推特上表示要恢复森林资源，因为到目前为止，他们还看不到有什么可行的商业模式可以拯救树木。


But what if such a model did exist?	但如果这样的模式的确存在呢？


What if there were ways to make tropical forests worth more alive than dead?	如果有什么方法可以让热带雨林活着比死了更值钱呢？


Global leaders have been pondering this question for years.	多年以来全球领导人一直在思考这个问题。


And, at UN climate talks, they have come up with a novel solution: an initiative called Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+).	而且，在联合国气候谈判中，他们已经提出了全新的解决办法：一项名为减少因森林砍伐和森林退化而造成碳排放 （REDD+）的行动计划。


The idea is simple: with the right incentives, people, governments, and industries will preserve and restore tropical forests, rather than plow them under.	他们的想法非常简单：如果建立正确的激励机制，民众、政府和行业就能够保护和恢复热带雨林，而不是以开发的名义毁坏它。


In return, the world gets more carbon sinks to soak up greenhouse gasses.	作为回报，世界也将有更多森林碳汇来吸收温室气体排放。


REDD+, which has been around in various forms for nearly a decade, provides a payment structure for preservation and restoration efforts.	“减少因森林砍伐和退化而造成的碳排放计划”已经以各种形式执行了近十年，并为森林的保护和抢救工作提供了兑现方法。


By putting an economic value on forests for the role they play in large-scale carbon capture and storage, REDD+ allows standing trees to compete with lucrative land uses – such as logging or agriculture – that result in deforestation.	通过开发森林在大规模碳捕获和储存过程中所发挥的经济价值，“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”可以让森林与导致森林砍伐的伐木或农业等利润丰厚的土地使用形式展开竞争。


The first large-scale REDD+ program, an agreement between Norway and Brazil, was initiated in 2008.	2008年启动了挪威和巴西之间第一项大规模“减少因森林砍伐和森林退化所造成的碳排放计划”。


Norway agreed to provide $1 billion in “performance-based payments” to Brazil for successfully protecting its rainforests.	挪威同意向巴西提供10亿美元“以绩效为基础的补偿资金”，只要巴西成功保护其国内热带雨林这笔钱就向巴西发放。


The money from Norway was released in installments, as Brazil conserved its forests.	随着巴西雨林保护工作的不断深入，来自挪威的这笔资金向巴西分期发放。


The results were impressive: Brazil reduced the average rate of Amazon deforestation by over 60% over the last decade, absorbing about 3.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, more than any other country.	结果令人刮目相看：过去十年中巴西将亚马逊森林被砍伐的平均速度降低了60%以上，吸收了约36亿吨的二氧化碳，贡献之大超过其他任何国家。


And Norway was able to help mitigate global carbon dioxide emissions.	而挪威则协助缓解了全球二氧化碳排放。


But, despite the success of the pilot partnership, the REDD+ program today is in dire need of capital.	尽管伙伴关系试点取得了成功，但今天的“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”却急需资金援助。


In many ways, the solution is similar to Musk’s solar proposal in Puerto Rico.	在许多方面，解决方法类似于马斯克在波多黎各的太阳能计划。


Only this time, the innovation is not technical, but financial.	只是这一次，创新的领域是金融而不是技术。


Creating a market for REDD+ credits would create investment opportunities in tropical forest preservation for heavily polluting companies and industries.	为“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”创造积分市场能够为污染严重的企业和行业创造投资保护热带雨林的机会。


With an adequate policy framework, REDD+ credits could be offered through existing compliance markets – such as the carbon credit markets in California or South Korea – unlocking billions in additional capital for reforestation efforts.	只要充分建立政策框架，“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”积分就可以通过现有的合规市场来进行销售——比如加利福尼亚或者韩国的碳积分市场——并由此释放数十亿资金用于开展植树造林工作。


Developing such a framework would also enable REDD+ to become part of future compliance systems, like the one being developed by the global airline industry to cap emissions, or the carbon-permit market that China plans to launch later this year.	建立这样的框架还会使“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”（REDD+）成为未来合规系统的组成部分，类似的例子包括全球航空公司在开发的用于限制排放的合规系统，再比如中国计划在今年晚些时候启动的碳许可证市场。


Integration into these markets could also tap new funding streams for forest conservation and reforestation, as it would allow financial intermediaries, like the REDD+ Acceleration Fund, to connect REDD+ projects directly with the private sector.	融入这些市场还可以为森林保护和再造计划提供新的现金流，因为REDD+加速基金等金融中介机构可以借助上述计划直接打通私营部门和“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”。


At the moment, most of this is aspirational.	截止目前为止，计划执行情况是令人鼓舞的。


REDD+ is merely a set of guidelines, and a forest credit market will require rules and standards to govern how protection and reforestation allowances are allocated to buyers and integrated into current markets.	“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”仅仅提供了指导原则，而森林积分市场则需要规则和标准，来管理森林保护和植树造林补贴是如何分配给买主并融入当前市场的。


Global leaders gathering this week for the UN climate change conference in Bonn, Germany, can aid these efforts by continuing to support the development of effective and transparent accounting mechanisms for REDD+ projects.	本周在德国波恩召开的联合国气候变化大会上齐聚一堂的全球领导人可以通过继续支持为“减少因森林砍伐和退化所造成的碳排放计划”制定透明而有效的会计原则从而支持这项计划。


There is danger in delay.	拖延是有风险的。


In the two years since the Paris climate agreement was adopted, deforestation increased sharply in Indonesia and parts of the Amazon, where much of the world’s largest and most vital tropical forests stand.	在巴黎气候协定通过两年间，世界现存最大最重要的热带雨林所在地印尼和亚马逊部分地区的森林砍伐急剧增加。


According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, tropical deforestation is responsible for three billion tons of additional atmospheric CO2 annually – more than the world’s entire transportation sector.	据相关科学家联盟统计，热带雨林砍伐每年多造成30亿吨 二氧化碳大气排放——其贡献比例甚至超过全球整个交通运输部门。


No technology is as effective at storing carbon as tropical forests, and saving and restoring them offers one of the cheapest large-scale forms of emissions abatement or capture, while providing a host of other environmental and social benefits.	没有哪项技术可以像热带雨林那样实现有效碳存储，拯救和恢复热带雨林提供了最廉价的大规模碳减排或碳捕获形式，同时还能带来一系列额外的环境和社会效益。


To take advantage of this crucial hedge against a warming planet, more trees must remain standing.	为充分利用这种方式对冲全球变暖所带来的风险，绝大多数热带雨林必须得到保护。


For those of us who believe that a forest credit market could provide critical means of protecting our planet our Musk moment is here.	对我们这些相信森林积分市场可以成为保护地球最重要手段的人来说，现在就是我们的马斯克时刻。


We must be similarly bold.	我们必须同样大胆的采取行动。


The Evolution of the Refugee Crisis	难民危机的演化


LONDON – As they celebrate Christmas, Germans are also remembering the dead from last year’s attack on a Berlin Christmas market by a migrant who had been denied asylum.	发自伦敦——在庆祝今年的圣诞节时，德国人也在缅怀去年柏林圣诞市场袭击案的死难者。


That incident fanned the flames of public sentiment against immigration, and probably played a role in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s stunning failure to form a new a coalition government after the federal election in September.	这起由一名申请庇护被拒移民发动的事件掀起了公众反对移民的怒火，并可能在一定程度上导致了默克尔总理在9月联邦大选之后出人意料地未能成立新联合政府。


Within the German electorate, there are widespread fears that another wave of migrants like the influx two years ago will deluge the country.	德国选民普遍担心想两年前那样的另一波移民潮即将泛滥全国。


But the facts on the ground have changed dramatically.	但实际情况发生了巨大变化。


On November 15, 2015, a migration command center in the German Foreign Ministry on Werderscher Markt in Berlin was tracking refugee flows at every potential border crossing on the route from Greece to Germany.	2015年11月15日，位于柏林韦尔德市场大街的德国外交部下属移民指挥中心追踪了从希腊到德国的每一个潜在过境点的难民人流。


Eventually, of 12 million displaced Syrians, one million arrived in Europe.	最终，在1200万流离失所的叙利亚人中，有100万抵达了欧洲。


And despite a massive response from the German government and members of the public, many asylum-seekers ended up sleeping on the streets and in railway stations.	尽管德国政府和公众对此实施了大规模应对措施，但许多寻求庇护者最终只能在街头和火车站求宿。


At the time, there were rumors of a migrant-fueled crime wave sweeping the country, though later research found little increase in crime along migration routes.	当时有传言说一场以移民为主的犯罪浪潮正在席卷全国，但后续研究发现移民行进路线上的犯罪事件几乎没有增加。


Two year later, much has changed.	两年后的局面发生了极大变化。


The German bureaucratic engine has been firing on all cylinders to process asylum claims and facilitate integration.	德国政府机构正在开足马力处理庇护申请并推动族群融合。


Of 700,000 asylum applications in 2016, almost 300,000 were denied, and those people are waiting to be returned to their countries of origin.	在2016年收到的70万份庇护申请中有近30万份被拒绝，被拒者正在等待遣返原籍国。


Greece, the first stop in the European Union for refugees from the Middle East, has started to close some refugee camps, after granting asylum to around 50,000 people.	在给近5万人发放了庇护许可后，作为中东难民赴欧第一站的希腊已经开始关闭一些难民营。


And even Italy, the first EU port of call for African migrants, is now experiencing a decline in asylum applications.	而即便是意大利这个非洲移民首站停靠港如今收到的庇护申请也已下降。


Turkey, meanwhile, has stuck to its deal with the EU, whereby it receives financial aid in exchange for taking in Syrian refugees.	与此同时，土耳其也履行了与欧盟达成的协议，通过接纳叙利亚难民以换取经济援助。


Before the deal entered into effect in March 2016, Turkey’s government had been actively encouraging migrants and refugees to continue to Europe; now, it is integrating refugees into Turkish society, and even trying to prevent high-skilled migrants from leaving.	在该协议于2016年3月生效之前，土耳其政府一直在积极鼓励移民和难民不断涌向欧洲； 如今却在努力使难民融入土耳其社会，甚至试图阻止某些高技能移民离开。


Accordingly, the European Commission announced this month that it would provide another €700 million ($830 million) in aid to Turkey.	为此欧盟委员会本月宣布将向土耳其提供另一笔7亿欧元（折合8. 3亿美元）的援助。


The situation has also improved in Northern Iraq (Iraqi Kurdistan).	伊拉克北部（伊拉克库尔德斯坦）的情况也有所改善。


Previously, the Syrian civil war and the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) had displaced three million Iraqis and hundreds of thousands of Syrian Kurds.	此前，叙利亚内战和伊斯兰国的崛起使300万伊拉克人和数十万叙利亚库尔德人流离失所。


But now that ISIS has been defeated militarily and its territory reclaimed, refugee Kurds have a choice of either staying in Iraq or returning to Syria.	但现在伊斯兰国已经在军事上被击败，所侵占的领土也被收回，库尔德难民可以选择留在伊拉克或是回到叙利亚。


Internally displaced Iraqis, on the other hand, are expected to return to whatever remains of their cities and homes – a process that has been accelerated by the Iraqi Kurds’ renewed push for independence this year.	另一方面，流落在本国境内的伊拉克人将有机会回到本国剩余的城市和家园——伊拉克库尔德人今年再次推动独立的行动则加速了这一进程。


Against this backdrop of relatively improved conditions, Lebanon stands out as an exception.	但黎巴嫩则是这种形势相对好转背景下的一个例外。


Although Lebanon has a population of just four million people, it is now host to more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees. The result is a growing sense of refugee fatigue, which is threatening to destabilize the country’s fragile multi-confessional power-sharing arrangement.	该国只有四百万人口，却容纳了超过150万叙利亚难民，以致对难民日益感到厌倦，甚至可能破坏该国脆弱的多党权力分享安排。


Already, the government’s rhetoric has started to focus on returning refugees to Syria, rather than on determining how best to provide for them.	该国政府的言论已经开始强调要让难民返回叙利亚，而不是决定如何为他们提供服务。


As for the refugees themselves, many are visible in the streets of Beirut, the capital, but most are stuck in camps or temporary host communities, and lack adequate access to health care and schooling.	至于难民自身，除了那些在首都贝鲁特街头流浪的之外，大部分都被困在难民营或临时收容社区，缺乏足够的医疗卫生和教育机会。


And even when refugees are accommodated by schools and universities, they have limited employment prospects after graduating.	就算一些难民能入读各级学校和大学，毕业后的就业前景也十分有限。


Another lost generation is coming of age in a country that has long been riven by bungled integration efforts.	这意味着在这么一个融合政策长期不见成效的国家中，又增添了“失落的一代”。


Making matters worse, following the resignation and return of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Lebanon is now experiencing a political crisis that has raised the specter of a return to civil war.	更糟糕的是，随着总理萨阿德·哈里里（Saad Hariri）的辞职和回归，黎巴嫩正经历一场政治危机，使人们重新陷入内战的阴影之中。


So, what can be done?	那么人们可以做些什么呢？


Neighboring Jordan may offer one model to follow.	邻国约旦可能会提供一个模式。


Rather than integrating refugees, Jordan has until recently kept them largely confined along the Syrian border.	约旦直到最近都一直把绝大多数难民限制在两国边界的叙利亚一侧，而不是放到本国境内进行融合。


At first, this left refugees with little access to education or labor markets.	起初这让难民难以接受教育或进入劳动力市场。


But, thanks to concerted efforts by the international community and funding from the EU, there are now several programs in place to stimulate investment, encourage companies to hire refugees, and create special economic zones on the border.	但得益于国际社会的共同努力和欧盟的资助，现在已经启动了几个项目来刺激投资，鼓励企业招募难民，并在边界上建立特别经济区。


The idea is that by spurring economic activity on the border, Syrian refugee communities and businesses can start to develop the capacity needed to rebuild post-war Syria when the time comes.	总体理念是通过刺激边界地区的经济活动，叙利亚难民社区和企业可以开始发展出战后重建叙利亚所需的能力。


It is too soon to evaluate the full impact of these measures, but they are promising nonetheless.	虽然现在评估这些措施的全面影响还为时过早，但其前景仍然看好。


But Europe, for its part, must do far more than provide funding.	但是欧洲方面所做的远不止是提供资金。


The failure of European governments to manage the sudden influx of refugees in 2015 has fueled populism and intolerance in previously open societies.	欧洲各国政府未能合理应对2015年难民潮的现实在原本开放的社会中引发了民粹主义和排斥现象。


True, this failure was partly due to genuine constraints, particularly in health-care and education systems. But it also reflected poor preparation, a lack of coordination, and insufficient investment.	诚然，这种应对失策在某种程度上确实源自于一些因素的制约，特别是在医疗保健和教育系统方面，但也反映出政府筹备不力，协调缺乏以及投入不足。


The refugee crisis is fundamentally a systemic challenge, because developments in one country can affect many other countries.	难民危机从根本上说是一个系统性的挑战，因为一个国家的事态发展可能会影响其他许多国家。


As such, the crisis demands an EU-level and, indeed, a global response.	因此危机需要来自欧盟层面甚至全球性的回应。


Fortunately, for the first time since Syria’s civil war began, there is hope that the EU might muster an effective joint approach to the problem.	值得庆幸的是，自叙利亚内战爆发以来欧盟终于首次有望联合起来共同解决这个问题。


In a wide-ranging speech at the Sorbonne in September, French President Emmanuel Macron injected new energy into EU policymaking in this area.	法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙9月在巴黎索邦大学上发表一场引发了广泛影响的讲话，为欧盟在这一领域的决策注入了新的活力。


And, inspired by the Jordanian model, EU policymakers can now begin to develop a more coherent, evidence-based migration policy.	同时受约旦模式的启发，欧盟决策者现在可以开始制定更加具备连贯性，有实证做支撑的移民政策。


Of course, much will depend on Germany.	当然，上述建议最终能实现多少将取决于德国。


One hopes that its leaders will not let whipped-up sentiments about migration torpedo a coalition agreement.	人们希望其领导人不要放任煽动性的反移民情绪去破坏联盟协议。


They must recognize that German leadership in the EU and on the world stage is crucial for managing the migration challenge, not least in Germany itself.	他们必须认识到，德国在欧盟和世界舞台上的领导力对于应对移民挑战至关重要，而不仅仅是德国本身。


Refugee Doctors for Refugee Health	难民医生负责难民健康


TORONTO – Syrian refugees are often portrayed as an unwelcome drain on the communities to which they relocate, especially with regard to health care.	多伦多—叙利亚难民常常被称为是安置地所在社区的不受欢迎的寄生虫，特别是在卫生方面。


But, for those escaping Syria’s civil war, ignorance of their plight is overshadowed only by the reality of their needs – and the diversity of their expertise.	但是，对那些逃离叙利亚内战的人来说，对他们的困境的无知尚比不上对他们的现实需要——以及他们的专业背景的多样性的无知。


Although refugees do bring with them extensive health-care issues, they also bring years of experience in the medical profession that, if put to proper use, could be a boon to the communities that receive them, not to mention for other refugees.	难民确实带来了各种卫生问题，但他们也带来了多年的医疗专业经验，如果能够合理地加以利用，能够成为接受他们的社区——更不用说其他难民——的福音。


One of the biggest challenges for refugees anywhere is finding a doctor.	不论什么地区，难民所面临的最大的挑战之一找不到医生。


In many host countries, inadequate treatment is the result of xenophobia, language barriers, or insufficient supply of medical staff.	在很多接收国，医疗短缺源自仇外情绪、语言障碍以及医护人员人手短缺。


This is especially true for Syrians, who are scattered across the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and North America.	散布在中东、北非、欧洲和北美的叙利亚人尤其如此。


But many Syrian refugees are also highly educated.	但很多叙利亚难民也受过很好的教育。


As they settle in places far from the hospitals and clinics in which they once practiced, Syria’s doctors simply want to get back to work.	抵达距离他们曾经执业的医院和诊所万里之遥的新家园后，叙利亚医生也希望重新开始工作。


Isn’t it time that they did?	现在难道不是好时机吗？


In the United Kingdom, efforts are underway to make that happen.	在英国，这方面的努力正在展开。


The National Health Service and the British Medical Association have begun retraining refugee doctors, including many from Syria and Afghanistan, to fill the ranks of depleted clinics in UK.	英国医保体系（National Health Service）和英国医学会（British Medical Association）已经开始对医生进行再培训，包括许多来自叙利亚和阿富汗的医生，以填补英国医疗场所的人手短缺。


Through English-language training, postgraduate study, and professional registration, programs in London, Lincolnshire, and Scotland aim to reintegrate refugee doctors into the medical profession.	通过英语培训、深造和职业注册，伦敦、林肯郡和苏格兰准备让难民医生重新当上医生。


These efforts should be lauded.	这样的计划应该大力支持。


Retraining refugee doctors is not only a moral exercise; it also makes practical sense.	难民医生再培训不仅仅只是一项道德义务； 它也有实践意义。


Displaced doctors are better able to treat refugee patients’ ailments.	逃亡医生更适合医治难民患者的小疾病。


Refugee doctors can also help ensure that the flood of new patients does not overwhelm host countries’ health-care systems.	难民医生也能够帮助确保新患者的涌入不会压垮接收国的医疗系统。


And retraining a refugee doctor is cheaper and faster than educating a new medical student.	而对难民医生进行再培训要比培养新医学生更廉价、更快捷。


With approximately 600 refugee doctors living in Britain, the well of untapped talent in the UK is deep.	英国大约有600位难民医生，对他们的才能不加以利用不啻暴殄天物。


Moreover, refugee patients benefit when treated by doctors who understand their circumstances, including the enormous psychosocial stress that displacement causes.	此外，难民患者得到能够理解他们的处境——包括流离失所所造成的巨大的心理压力——的医生的医治，对他们来说也大有裨益。


Translators can help, but they are not always available in crisis settings.	译员能够起到帮助作用，但在危机条件下，未必能够找到译员。


Doctors who understand refugees emotionally and culturally are better equipped to put patients at ease.	理解难民心理和文化的医生更能够让难民安定下来。


Britain is not alone in recognizing the potential of refugee doctors.	英国不是唯一一个认识到难民医生潜力的国家。


In Turkey, Syrian doctors and nurses have received training to help them become familiar with the Turkish health-care system.	在土耳其，叙利亚医生和护士接受培训，以便他们熟悉土耳其医疗系统。


The goal is to enable qualified Syrian professionals to treat refugee patients, thus mitigating the language and logistical barriers to effective, accessible, and dignified care.	其目标是让合格的叙利亚医生去医治难民患者，从而消除获得有效、易得和有尊严的看护的语言和物流壁垒。


But other host countries have not been as forward thinking.	但其他接收国尚未如此具有前瞻性。


In Lebanon and Jordan, for example, where more than 1.6 million registered Syrian refugees currently live, efforts to allow Syrian doctors to care for refugee patients have been criminalized.	比如，黎巴嫩和约旦现在有160万多名叙利亚难民，但叙利亚医生医治难民患者是非法的。


Doctors ignoring the law face arrest and possible deportation.	违反法律的医生将被逮捕并可能被驱逐。


Even Canada, a country that generally welcomes diversity and values human rights, is behind the curve on innovative approaches to refugee health.	即使是对多样性总体持欢迎态度并重视人权的加拿大，在采用创新手段解决难民健康问题方面也处于落后地位。


Syrian doctors face “many, many years” of retraining in Canada, and often struggle to fund the high cost of recertification.	叙利亚医生在加拿大需要经过“许多许多年”的再培训，他们常常无力承担高昂的重新考证成本。


Amid this resistance, refugee health care should be viewed as more than a set of logistical and operational challenges, but also as an inherently political process.	面临如此阻力，难民健康问题不能仅仅被视为后勤和操作的问题，它本质上也是个政治过程。


Two dimensions of the issue must be addressed if refugee patients are ever to be properly cared for, and refugee doctors properly deployed.	要让难民获得合理的看护，让难民医生得到合理的部署，需要解决这个问题中的两个关键点。


For starters, refugee doctors may struggle to be accepted by their local colleagues, owing to political or personal bias.	首先，出于政治或个人的偏见，难民医生可能很难被本地同行所接受。


Recognizing the potential for local resistance to integration programs for refugee doctors is essential to develop proactive policies that ensure success.	认识到存在不利于难民医生融入的潜在本地阻力是制定确保成功的预案的关键。


Moreover, refugee doctors must be trained to address the diversity of medical needs they will face in their adoptive homes.	此外，必须训练难民医生使其能够面对接收国的医疗需求多样性。


For example, in many countries where refugees originate, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) health concerns remain taboo, even among medical professionals.	比如，在许多难民来源国，同性恋、双性恋、两性人和阴阳人（LGBTI）的健康问题仍然是一个禁忌，即使在医生中间也不例外。


For refugee doctors relocating to countries where LGBTI health and rights are recognized, integration curricula should include training on LGBTI health, particularly the rights of exceptionally vulnerable LGBTI refugees.	对来到LGBTI健康和权利受到承认的国家的难民医生来说，融合课程应该包括LGBTI健康，特别是特别脆弱的LGBTI难民的权利的培训。


Improving health for LGBTI refugees can serve as a foundation for a more open society.	改善LGBTI难民的健康能够成为更加开放的社会的基础。


The refugee crisis that has engulfed Syria is just one ripple in a tidal wave of global displacement.	吞噬叙利亚的难民危机只是全球流离失所大潮的一个小涟漪。


Around the world, some 22.5 million people are officially registered as refugees, and nearly 66 million have been forced from their homes.	放眼全球，有2,250万官方注册在案的难民，近6,600万人被迫逃离家园。


These numbers are unlikely to fall in the near term, as calamities caused by climate change, and by human and natural disasters, continue to push even more people from their communities.	拜气候变化以及人造和自然灾害所赐，这些数字在短期不可能下降，反而会有更多人流离失所。


Every one of these future refugees will need access, at some point, to medical professionals trained in refugee health, diversity, and inclusion.	这些未来难民中的每一个人都会在某个时间需要医护人员，这些医护人员应该受过难民健康、多样性和包容性方面的培训。


Empowering refugee doctors to become part of the solution will help overcome entrenched dogmas toward refugee diversity and social identities.	赋权难民医生，使他们成为解决方案的一部分，这有助于克服难民多样性和社会身份问题上的根深蒂固的教条。


But, just as important, it will mark a crucial step forward in ensuring more inclusive refugee health.	但同样重要的是，这也是通往确保更加包容性的难民健康的关键一步。


How to Improve NAFTA	如何改进北美自由贸易协定


MEXICO CITY – As US President Donald Trump promised, renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has commenced.	墨西哥城—如美国总统特朗普所承诺的那样，北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）重新谈判已经开始。


The initial talks are already sending a clear message: the disagreements to be resolved by Canada, Mexico, and the United States are fundamentally political, not economic, and they are as pronounced within each country as they are between them.	最初几轮协商已经释放出明确的信号：加拿大、墨西哥和美国所需要解决的分歧从根本上说在于政治，而不在于经济，并且各自国内的分歧不亚于彼此之间的分歧。


Contrary to popular belief, the true global trade dilemma of our time is not so much liberalization versus protectionism, but the rights of capital versus the rights of people.	与流行的信念相反，现时代真正的全球贸易困境并非自由化与保护主义之争，而是资本的权利与人民的权利之争。


In recent years, trade pacts have exacerbated imbalances on that front, by failing to deliver benefits for the many, rather than for a relatively few powerful corporations.	在最近几年中，贸易契约加剧了这方面的失衡，它们没有为大多数人带来利益，而只是让一小撮强大的公司受益。


In this context, a focus on improving each NAFTA economy’s trade balance would be misguided.	在此背景下，专注于改善各NAFTA经济体的贸易平衡是错误的方向。


Instead, negotiators must aim to spread the benefits of trade more widely, by taking better advantage of the opportunities for cooperation stemming from geographical proximity, complementary labor markets, demographic dynamics, and economic integration.	相反，谈判者们应该将目标放在扩大贸易收益的普及面，更好地利用来自地理接近、劳动力市场互补、人口动态和经济融合的合作机会。


The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has the right idea, with negotiating objectives that cover labor issues and wages, transparency, corruption, and some aspects of human rights.	美国贸易代表（USTR）办公室提出了正确的概念，它的谈判目标覆盖了劳工问题和工资、透明度、腐败，以及一些人权问题。


Canada has enriched this approach further, insisting that gender and the rights of indigenous people also be included.	加拿大在此基础上更进一步，要求在NAFTA中包括性别和当地人权利条款。


Mexico has yet to say what it wants, but it should move in the same direction.	墨西哥仍然没有提出它想要什么，但方向应该是一样的。


Issues relating to wages and working conditions will be particularly important to Mexico, where the prevailing approach can be called “patriotic exploitation.”	与工资和工作环境相关的问题对墨西哥来说尤其重要，墨西哥的通行方针可称之为“爱国剥削”（patriotic exploitation）。


In short, workers’ rights and compensation are regarded as a concern for Mexican companies alone.	简言之，工人权利和薪酬被视为完全是墨西哥公司需要考虑的问题。


Though Mexico promised in 1993 to bring its labor standards into compliance with International Labor Organization guidelines, it has yet to follow through.	墨西哥在1993年承诺使其劳动标准符合国际劳工组织指导标准，但这一承诺并未兑现。


So, as labor productivity grows in Mexico, the additional income is appropriated mainly by companies and their shareholders, rather than by the workers creating the value.	因此，在墨西哥劳动生产率上升的同时，增加的收益主要落入了公司及其股东的腰包，而不是流向了创造价值的工人。


As the CEO of United Technologies gushed, Mexican workers now do the same jobs to the same standard as their US counterparts, but for barely a fifth of the pay.	联合技术公司（United Technologies）首席执行官指出，墨西哥工人的工作要求标准已经和美国看齐，但收入却只有美国的五分之一。


Mexico continues to operate under the assumption that wages low enough to attract and sustain investment ensure the shortest route to competitiveness.	墨西哥仍然认为，工资足够低，能吸引到投资并保持，这是获得竞争力的最短捷径。


The Mexican economic elite, therefore, considers it almost a patriotic duty to continue exploiting the country’s workers.	因此，墨西哥经济精英，不断地剥削本国工人几乎是一项爱国责任。


Spurring faster wage growth in Mexican manufacturing may require that free access to the US market be conditioned on it.	刺激墨西哥制造业工资更快地增长可能需要以自由进入美国市场为前提。


How could Mexico fulfill this condition?	墨西哥如何满足这一前提？ 从长期看，实现充分就业是一条路。


In the long term, achieving full employment would do the job.	但在中期，关键在于劳工权利：工会化和集体议价；


But, in the medium term, the key will be labor rights: unionization and collective bargaining; prohibition of child labor, unpaid overtime, unjustified dismissal, and excessive outsourcing; and skills training to meet the economy’s changing needs.	禁止童工、无薪加班、无故解聘和过度外包； 以及满足不断变化的经济需要的技能培训。


Including wage conditions in the revised NAFTA could also be meaningful in the US and Canada, especially with regard to the rights of migrant workers and permanent residents.	将工资条件纳入修订后的NAFTA对美国和加拿大也很有意义，特别是移民工人和永久居民权利方面。


As for Mexico, immigration and migrants are the most important topic excluded from the original agreement.	与对墨西哥一样，（移入和移出的）移民是原始协定没能包含的最重要的议题。


The key to success will be effective penalties for non-compliance, focused on the withdrawal of trade benefits.	成功的关键在于对违反规定予以有效的惩罚，以收回贸易收益为主。


On corruption, too, it is likely to be difficult for Mexico to move forward without external discipline.	在腐败方面，墨西哥也难以在没有外部约束的情况下取得进步。


To be sure, since 2008, Mexico has sought to implement far-reaching reforms of the criminal justice system, and last year, it created a national anti-corruption system.	诚然，自2008年以来，墨西哥实施了影响深远的刑事司法制度改革，并在去年建立了全国反腐体系。


But the government has actively undermined its own efforts on both fronts, with the anti-corruption system having yet to see the light of day.	但在这两个方面，墨西哥政府都在积极地给自己“下绊”，反腐体系前景黯淡。


Meanwhile, calls by major civil-society organizations, business leaders, and top academics for the appointment of an autonomous and effective attorney general and anti-corruption prosecutor have met considerable resistance.	与此同时，重要公民社会组织、商界领袖和著名学者要求任命有自主权、能起到效果的检察长和反腐检察官，但遭到了巨大的阻力。


The NAFTA renegotiation provides an opportunity to internationalize Mexico’s anti-corruption fight.	NAFTA的重新谈判提供了一个让墨西哥反腐斗争国际化的机会。


Already, the USTR has identified corruption as an area of interest.	目前，美国谈判代表已经将腐败列为利益领域。


For example, the main provisions of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act could be included in the new NAFTA, in order to raise Mexican standards of compliance.	比如，美国海外腐败行为法（Foreign Corrupt Practices Act）的主要条款可能被纳入新的NAFTA中，以提高墨西哥的合规标准。


The final chapter that should be added to the renegotiated NAFTA is also the most delicate: human rights.	应该加入重新谈判的NAFTA中的最后一项最为微妙：人权。


Since the end of the 1990s, Mexico has accepted the idea of subjecting its commitments in this area to international scrutiny.	自20世纪90年代末以来，墨西哥已经接受了这方面的承诺需要接受国际监督的概念。


Yet this promises to be the most violent year in Mexico since 2006, when the “war on drugs” was declared.	但今年也许是墨西哥自2006年，即宣告“毒品战争”的那年以来最暴力的一年。


There is reason to believe that concern in the US about its worsening opioid epidemic, which supposedly originates in the poppy fields of Mexico, will intensify the war effort – and, with it, human-rights violations.	有理由认为美国对其鸦片类毒品形势恶化的担忧将加剧毒品战争战事，侵犯人权的情况也将因此加剧。 据信美国的鸦片类毒品往往来自墨西哥罂粟田。


With the Mexican government failing to translate its rhetoric on human rights into action, NAFTA may provide a powerful mechanism to improve outcomes.	由于墨西哥政府没有将其人权承诺转化为行动，NAFTA可能会制定一个强力机制改善结果。


Specific goals should include improved gender wage equality and a better balance between agricultural exporters’ prosperity and that of agricultural workers, many of whom are indigenous.	具体目标应该包括改善性别工资平等以及在农业出口商的繁荣与农业工人（多是本地人）的兴旺之间取得更好的平衡。


Trade pacts like NAFTA must no longer be regarded as charters of rights for large corporations.	NAFTA这样的贸易契约，不可作为为大公司谋利的条约。


They must serve ordinary citizens and address their problems.	它们必须服务于普通老百姓，解决他们的问题。


To that end, today’s trade deals must take a cooperative approach that emphasizes capacity-building and encourages vigorous citizen participation, with civil society in each country assured the legal standing to present cases within the framework of a renegotiated agreement.	在这方面，今天的贸易协议必须采取合作方针，强调能力构建，鼓励公民的大量参与，各国公民社会要确保在重新谈判的协定的框架范围内呈堂的法律地位。


For the renegotiation of NAFTA to be worthwhile, it must address wages, corruption, and human rights – all particularly serious challenges for Mexico today.	NAFTA的重新谈判要想有价值，就必须解决工资、腐败和人权问题——所有这些问题，对今天的墨西哥来说都是非常严峻的挑战。


If it does, Canada and the US will be better off as well.	如果能够实现这一点，加拿大和美国也能受益。


The Irresistible Rise of the Renminbi	不可抵抗的人民币崛起


SEOUL – By the end of this year, the International Monetary Fund will decide whether the Chinese renminbi will join the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the US dollar in the basket of currencies that determines the value of its international reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right (SDR).	首尔—今年年底，国际货币基金组织（IMF）将决定是否将人民币与欧元、日元、英镑和美元一起纳入决定其国际储备资产——特别提款权（SDR）价值的货币篮子。


China is pushing hard for the renminbi’s inclusion.	中国在努力推进让人民币进入这一货币篮子。


Should it be admitted?	人民币应该得到承认吗？


The IMF created the SDR in 1969 to supplement existing reserve currencies, thereby providing the global financial system with additional liquidity.	1969年，IMF创造了SDR以补充已有的储备货币，从而为全球金融体系增加流动性。


As it stands, the SDR’s role remains largely limited to IMF operations; its share in global financial markets and central banks’ international reserves is negligible.	目前，SDR的作用主要仍局限于IMF的操作； 其占全球金融市场和央行国际储备的比重可以忽略不计。


Nonetheless, adding the renminbi to the SDR basket would be symbolically important, implying recognition of China’s growing global stature.	尽管如此，将人民币加入SDR货币篮子具有重要的象征意义，意味着承认中国全球地位的提高。


The renminbi is already a major currency for world trade and investment, and accounts for a growing share of international financial transactions and reserve holdings.	人民币已是世界贸易和投资的主要货币，在国际金融交易和储备持有量中的比例越来越高。


To qualify for inclusion, the Chinese government has eased its capital controls and liberalized its financial markets considerably.	为了被纳入SDR货币篮子，中国政府放松了资本管制，金融市场自由度大大增加。


Inclusion in the SDR basket would require continuing this process, which, together with the renminbi’s emergence as a globally investable currency, would benefit the entire world economy.	进入SDR货币篮子需要更进一步，而这，加上人民币成为可投资的全球货币，将让整个世界经济获益。


The IMF’s largest shareholders – the United States, Europe, and Japan – should thus welcome the renminbi’s addition to the SDR basket.	因此，IMF的最大股东——美国、欧洲和日本——应该欢迎人民币加入SDR货币篮子。


Yet opinions on the matter have been divided, with the US, in particular, reluctant to welcome China into the fold.	但对于这一问题，人们的观点不一，特别是美国不愿意欢迎中国的进入。


This is all the more problematic given that the 2008 financial crisis laid bare the international reserve system’s inadequacy when it comes to ensuring sufficient liquidity for emerging economies.	2008年金融危机让国际储备体系的不足暴露无遗——根本无法保证为新兴经济体提供足够的流动性，这让美国的不情愿问题更大了。


Although emerging economies have since accumulated larger foreign-exchange reserves and strengthened financial supervision and regulation, they remain vulnerable to external shocks, especially from the US, the eurozone, and Japan.	尽管新兴经济体此后累积了更大规模的外汇储备并加强了金融监督和监管，但它们仍很容易受到外部冲击，特别是来自美国、欧元区和日本的冲击。


All three have lately employed expansionary monetary policies; and, as the US Federal Reserve normalizes its policy, emerging economies will be hit again by a sudden withdrawal of global liquidity.	这三个经济体最近都采取了扩张性货币政策； 而随着美联储政策的正常化，新兴经济体可能因为全球流动性突然撤回而再次受到冲击。


This continued vulnerability reflects a collective failure to reform the global monetary system – an imperative that People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan highlighted in early 2009.	这一持续的脆弱性反映出全球货币体系改革的集体失败——中国人民银行行长周小川在2009年初就强调了改革的重要性。


Per Zhou’s proposal, China has championed a transition to a multi-currency reserve system, in which the SDR and an internationalized renminbi would be used more widely, including in countries’ currency reserves.	根据周小川的建议，中国领衔主张转向多货币储备体系，其中SDR和国际化的人民币应该得到更广泛的使用，包括作为各国储备货币。


But its attempt in 2010 to add its currency to the SDR basket failed, because the renminbi was not “freely usable.”	但2010年中国让人民币加入SDR货币篮子的尝试以失败告终，因为人民币无法“自由使用”。


Since then, China has implemented a series of reforms to increase the renminbi’s usage in foreign trade and direct investment, as well as in cross-border financial investment.	此后，中国实施了一系列改革，增加人民币在外贸和直接投资以及跨境金融投资中的使用。


Fourteen renminbi-clearing banks have been established worldwide.	目前，全世界已有十四家人民币清算银行。


Last year, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was launched to stimulate cross-border investment and capital-market development.	去年，股市“沪港通”启动，刺激了跨境投资和资本市场发展。


And China has signed bilateral currency-swap agreements with 28 central banks, including the Central Bank of Brazil, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.	中国已经与28家央行签署了双边货币互换协议，包括巴西央行、加拿大银行、欧洲央行和英格兰银行。


This year, Chinese policymakers have signaled further financial liberalization by removing the domestic cap on banks’ deposit rates, thereby giving overseas institutional investors easier access to capital markets.	今年，中国决策者表态要取消国内银行存款利率上限，从而进一步实现金融自由化，让海外机构投资者更容易进入中国资本市场。


The PBOC is also likely to widen the currency’s trading band and move toward a more flexible exchange-rate regime.	中国人民银行也扩大了人民币的交易波动区间，并采取了更加灵活的汇率机制。


As a result of these efforts, the renminbi has emerged as the second most used currency in trade finance, overtaking the euro, and the fifth most used for international payments.	拜这些措施所赐，人民币已经成为贸易融资中第二常用的货币（超过了欧元）和国际支付中第五常用的货币。


Moreover, it is increasingly preferred in currency-market transactions and official foreign-exchange reserves.	此外，在货币市场交易和官方外汇储备中，人民币也越来越受欢迎。


Of course, China stands to gain much from the renminbi’s emergence as an alternative international reserve currency, sharing in the “exorbitant privilege” that the US currently enjoys by virtue of the dollar’s global status.	当然，人民币成为国际储备货币，与美元共享货币全球地位带来的“过度特权”，这可以让中国获得巨大的好处。


Beyond the convenience of conducting international transactions in local currency, China would be able to take advantage of seigniorage – safe in the knowledge that it would not face a balance-of-payments crisis.	除了方便地用本币进行国际交易外，中国还可以利用铸币权——因为人所共知不会面临国际收支危机而得到的安全性。


But, in order to reach that point, China must confront significant risks.	但是，为了实现这一点，中国必须面对巨大的风险。


Capital-account liberalization and renminbi internationalization invite potentially volatile cross-border capital flows, which could, for example, trigger rapid currency appreciation.	资本账户自由化和人民币国际化会带来潜在波动剧烈的跨境资本流，可能（比如）引发货币迅速升值。


Given this, China can be expected to continue to manage capital-account transactions to some extent, using macroprudential measures and, when appropriate, direct capital controls.	考虑到这一点，可以预期中国将继续在一定程度上管理资本账户交易，包括使用宏观审慎政策以及在适当时候采取直接资本管制。


Even if China manages to mitigate such risks, unseating the US dollar as the dominant global currency will be no easy feat.	而即使中国成功降低了这些风险，与美元争夺主要全球货币地位也绝非易事。


Inertia favors currencies that are already in use internationally, and China lacks deep and liquid financial markets, an important precondition that any international reserve currency must meet.	惯性有利于已经获得国际使用的货币，而中国缺少有深度和流动性的资本市场，而这时任何国际储备货币都必须满足的重要先决条件。


Furthermore, China’s banking system, which remains subject to extensive government control, lags far behind those of the US and Europe in terms of efficiency and transparency.	此外，中国的银行体系仍受到政府的强力控制，在效率和透明度等方面远远落后于美国和欧洲。


If, however, China succeeds in developing a more convertible capital account and bolstering its financial system’s efficiency, the renminbi is likely to emerge as a new international reserve currency, complementing the US dollar and the euro.	但是，如果中国成功地增加资本账户的可兑换性并提高其金融体系的效率，人民币有可能成为新的国际储备货币，成为美元和欧元之外的补充。


This would benefit companies and central banks alike, by enabling them to diversify their foreign-currency holdings further.	这将有利于公司和央行，让它们能够实现外汇持仓的多样化。


History suggests that a shift in global currency dominance is likely to occur gradually.	历史表明，全球货币主宰权的变迁发生得十分缓慢。


For now, China is focused on winning the renminbi’s inclusion, even with a small share, in the SDR currency basket.	现在，中国的关注点是成功将人民币进入SDR货币篮子，哪怕比重很小。


The IMF’s major shareholders should seriously consider it.	IMF的大股东应该认真考虑这一点。


The renminbi’s continued internationalization, not to mention further progress on critical financial reforms, would contribute to the creation of a more stable and efficient global reserve system.	人民币的继续国际化——更不用说关键性金融改革的继续进步——将有助于建立更稳定和有效的全球储备体系。


China’s Lonely Fight Against Deflation	中国挺身而出对抗全球通缩及贬值


HONG KONG – In early February, as China celebrated the start of the Year of the Monkey, a widely circulated hedge-fund newsletter roiled financial markets by predicting a hard landing for the economy, the collapse of the shadow-banking system, and the devaluation of the renminbi.	香港—2月初，在中国喜迎猴年之际，一则广为流传的对冲基金简讯在金融市场上引起了轩然大波。 这封简讯预测中国经济将硬着陆，影子银行体统将崩溃，人民币将贬值。


Stability returned only after People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, in an interview with Caixin magazine, explained the logic of China’s exchange-rate policy.	直到中国人民银行行长周小川接受《财新》杂志采访，对中国外汇政策的逻辑作了一番解释，市场才恢复稳定。


But China’s ability to maintain that stability depends on a multitude of interrelated factors, such as low productivity growth, declining real interest rates, disruptive technologies, excess capacity and debt overhangs, and excess savings.	但中国维持金融稳定的能力取决于多重互相关联的因素，比如低生产率增长、实际利率下降、颠覆性技术的出现、产能过剩导致的债务积压，以及储蓄过剩。


In fact, the current battle over the renminbi’s exchange rate reflects a tension between the interests of the “financial engineers” (such as the managers of dollar-based hedge funds) and the “real engineers” (Chinese policymakers).	事实上，眼下的人民币汇率之争就反映了“金融工程师”（比如美元对冲基金经理） 和“实体工程师”（中国决策者）之间的对峙。


Foreign-exchange markets are, in theory, zero-sum games: the buyer’s loss is the seller’s gain, and vice versa.	理论上，外汇市场是零和博弈：买家的损失即卖家的盈利，反之亦然。


Financial engineers love speculating on these markets, because transaction costs are very low and leveraged naked shorts are allowed, without the need to hedge an underlying asset.	金融工程师喜欢在这些市场上投机，因为交易成本很低并且允许杠杆裸空，不需要对冲相应的基础资产。


The exchange rate, however, is an asset price that has huge economic spillovers, because it affects real trade and direct-investment flows.	但是，汇率也是一种资产价格，具有巨大的经济溢出效应，因为它会影响实际贸易和直接投资的流量。


Nowadays, financial engineers increasingly shape the exchange rate through financial transactions that may not be linked to economic fundamentals.	如今，金融工程师通过未必符合经济基本面的金融交易日益影响汇率。


Because financial markets notoriously overshoot, if the short-sellers win by pushing exchange rates and the real economy into a low-level equilibrium, the losses take the form of investment, jobs, and income.	由于金融市场常常会发生“超调”，因此如果卖空者通过将汇率和实体经济打压到低水平均衡而获胜，那么损失将以投资、就业和收入下降的形式出现。


In other words, financial engineers’ gain is real people’s pain.	换句话说，金融工程师的盈利可能导致普罗大众的损失。


In order to achieve these gains, financial engineers use the media to influence market behavior.	为了实现投机盈利，金融工程师常常通过媒体影响市场行为。


For example, short-sellers portray sharp declines in commodity and oil prices as negative factors, even though lower energy prices actually benefit most consumers – and even some producers, by allowing them to compete with their oligopolistic counterparts.	比如，卖空者将大宗商品和石油价格的急剧下跌描述成只是消极因素，尽管能源价格的下降实际上有利于大部分消费者——甚至包括一些使用能源的生产者，因为它们可以借此与传统能源行业的垄断寡头一较高下。


It is estimated that lower oil and commodity prices could add some $460 billion to China’s trade balance, largely offsetting the loss in foreign-exchange reserves in 2015.	据估计，石油和大宗商品价格低企给中国带来了4,600亿美元左右的贸易盈余，基本抵消了2015年中国外汇储备的损失额。


Similarly, China’s growth slowdown and the rise of non-performing loans are being discussed as exclusively negative developments.	类似地，中国增长的放缓和不良贷款的增加被认为有百弊而无一利。


But they are also necessary pains on the path to supply-side reform aimed at eliminating excess capacity, improving resource efficiency, and jettisoning polluting industries.	但这些现象都是中国迈向旨在消灭产能过剩、改善资源效率和削减污染产业的供给侧改革路上不可避免的阵痛。


The real engineers, excluding those whose judgment is clouded by personal financial interests, should counter this influence, while refusing to succumb to the temptation of quick fixes.	全球实体工程师（各国决策层）——剔除那些有个人财务利益诉求的少数——应该抵制这些负面解读，虽然不能幻想找到速效药。


Fortunately, China’s authorities have long understood that a stable renminbi exchange rate is critical to national, regional, and global stability.	幸运的是，中国决策层早就明白，稳定的人民币汇率对于国家、地区和全球经济的稳定至关重要。


Indeed, that is why they did not devalue the renminbi during the Asian financial crisis.	事实上，正因如此，中国才没有在亚洲金融危机期间让人民币贬值。


They saw what most analysts missed: leaving the US dollar as the main safe-haven currency for global savings, with near-zero interest rates, would have the same deflationary impact that the gold standard had in the 1930s.	中国决策层看到了大部分金融分析师没有看到的东西：让利率接近于零的美元充当全球储蓄的主要避险货币将像20世纪30年代的金本位那样带来全球通缩。


In the face of today’s deflationary forces, however, real engineers in the world’s major economies have been unwilling or unable to reflate.	很可惜，面临当今全球通缩压力，世界各主要经济体的实体工程师（决策层）不愿或无法重新实现通胀。


The United States, the world’s largest economy, will not use fiscal tools to that end, owing to domestic political constraints.	受到国内政治掣肘，世界最大经济体美国无法使用财政工具抵抗通缩。


Europe’s unwillingness to reflate reflects Germany’s deep-seated fear of inflation (which underpins its enduring commitment to austerity).	欧洲不愿实行再通胀政策是因为德国根深蒂固的对通胀的恐惧（这也是德国人始终致力于财政紧缩的原因）。


Japan cannot reflate because of its aging population and irresolute implementation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic plan, so-called Abenomics.	日本因为人口老龄化和首相安倍晋三的经济计划（所谓的“安倍经济学”）实施不力而无法实现再通胀。


And China is still paying for the excessive reflation caused by its CN¥4 trillion ($586 billion) stimulus package in 2009, which added over CN¥80 trillion to its own debt.	而中国仍在为2009年4万亿刺激计划所造成的一些没有回报项目的债务膨胀付出代价，2009年以来该刺激计划给中国增加了超过80万亿元的债务。


Meanwhile, the consequences of financial engineering are intensifying.	与此同时，与实体经济脱节的金融工程正导致越来越严峻的负面影响。


Zero and negative interest rates have not only encouraged short-term speculation in asset markets and harmed long-term investments; they have also destroyed the business model of banks, insurance companies, and fund managers.	零利率和负利率不但助长了资产市场的短期投机，伤害了长期投资； 还破坏了银行、保险公司和基金管理公司的业务模式。


Why should savers pay banks or fund managers 1-2% intermediation costs when prospective returns on investments are zero?	在金融投资前景回报为零的时候，储蓄者为何要付给银行或基金管理者1％到2%的中介费？


A system in which financial intermediaries can increase profits only by increasing leverage – sustainable only by increasing quantitative easing – is doomed to fail.	金融中介被迫只能通过增加杠杆来增加利润，而这样的投机只能通过不断加码的量化宽松来维持，并注定会失败。


Indeed, in hindsight, it seems clear that financial engineers outperformed the real economy only with the support of super-financial engineers – that is, central banks.	事实上，事后看来，显然金融工程师只能在超级金融工程师（即各国央行）的支持下其表现才能超越实体经济。


Initially, balance-sheet expansion – by $5 trillion since 2009 – provided banks with the cheap funding they needed to avoid failure.	一开始，通过全球央行资产负债表的扩张（2009年规模达5万亿美元）给了银行避免倒闭所需要的廉价资金。


But bank deleveraging (brought about by stiffer regulatory requirements), together with negative interest rates, caused financial institutions’ equity prices to fall, leading to further pro-cyclical destruction of value through price deflation, increasing illiquidity, and crowded exits.	但银行迫于更严格的监管标准而推行的去杠杆化与负利率货币政策导致了金融机构股价下跌。 而金融企业股价下也跌触发了其它价格通缩、流动性下降和竞相甩卖资产的浪潮，并引起进一步顺周期资产价值的崩溃。


Past experience has taught China’s real engineers that the only way to escape deflation is through painful structural reforms – not easy money and competitive devaluation.	过去的经验让中国的实体工程师明白，摆脱通缩的唯一办法是通过痛苦的结构改革——而不是宽松的货币和竞争性贬值。 问题在于美国和其他储备货币国是否会共同承担维持全球货币稳定的负担。


The question is whether the US and other reserve-currency countries will share the burden of maintaining global currency stability, through an agreement resembling the 1985 Plaza Accord, in which five major economies agreed to depreciate the US dollar against the Japanese yen and the German Deutsche Mark.	全球各大经济体需要签订类似于1985年广场协定的全球货币稳定互助协议吗？ 当时，五大主要经济体一致同意美元兑日元和德国马克贬值。


If not, why would Asia’s net lenders, especially China, continue funding speculation against themselves?	如果不能实现这一政策协调，那么亚洲的净贷款国（特别是中国）为何要继续为针对自己的货币投机提供资金？


The US dollar is a safe haven, but savers in need of liquidity still lack an impartial lender of last resort.	美元是全球储蓄的安全港，但在遇到危机时需要流动性的储蓄者仍缺少不偏不倚的最后贷款人。


Depositing in reserve currencies at near-zero interest rates makes sense only if the banker is not funding financial speculation against the depositor.	以接近零的利率保存储备货币代价不菲，只有在银行系统不为针对储备存款人的金融投机提供资金的情况下才有意义。


But, as it stands, financial engineers have a lot of freedom; indeed, if they are big enough, they can’t fail or, apparently, even go to jail.	但是，目前的情况是金融投机工程师有太多的自由； 事实上，如果他们规模够大，就不会倒闭，也不会因闯祸被抓起来。


China’s G-20 presidency this year offers an important opportunity to emphasize that renminbi stability is important not only for China, but also for the global financial system as a whole.	今年，中国是G-20主席国，这是一次重要机会，中国应该利用它来强调人民币稳定不但对中国很重要，对全球金融体系都很重要。


If the US dollar enters into another round of revaluation, the only winners will be financial engineers.	如果美元进入又一轮升值，那么唯一的赢家将是金融投机工程师。


Republicans’ Responsibility for Gun Violence	共和党的控枪责任


BOSTON – After the mass shooting at a concert in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sunday night, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters that, “It’s particularly inappropriate to politicize an event like this.	波士顿—周日晚上，在拉斯维加斯的一个音乐会上发生了大规模枪击案。 案发后，共和党参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）对记者说，“将这样的事件政治化是非常不合适的。


It just happened within the last day and a half.”	事情发生才不过一天半时间。 ”


With 59 dead and more than 500 injured, McConnell insisted that it was “[e]ntirely premature to be discussing about legislative solutions” to America’s gun-violence epidemic.	面对59死500多伤的情况，麦康奈尔仍然坚持，就美国枪支暴力痼疾而言，“讨论通过立法方案解决仍然完全不成熟”。


His party’s legislative priority, he added, would continue to be tax cuts.	他还说，他的共和党的立法重点仍然是减税。


McConnell’s response was fully in keeping with the Republican Party’s stance on gun violence.	麦康奈尔的反应与共和党在枪支暴力问题上的立场是完全一致的。


It is disheartening, however, that none of the reporters assembled in front of McConnell so much as tried to call him out on his position.	但围聚在麦康奈尔跟前的记者们却没有要求他改变这一立场，这令人心碎。


It would not have been unreasonable to ask the Senate majority leader: “If you think it is premature now, then when do you think the right time will be?	问参议院多数党领袖这样的问题没有什么不合理的：“如果你认为现在时机还不成熟，那么你认为合适的时机又是什么？


Could you provide a timetable?”	能不能提供一个时间表？


Nor would it be unreasonable to question the premise that Democrats are “politicizing” a tragedy.	”质疑民主党将一场悲剧“政治化”的这一推定也没有什么不合理。


After all, claiming politicization has been the go-to Republican talking point after every gun massacre for decades now.	毕竟，几十年来，每次发生大规模枪击案，宣称民主党将它政治化一直是共和党的套路。


McConnell and his Republican colleagues should have to explain why they will not even discuss policy solutions to the scourge of gun violence in America, instead of being allowed to continue pursuing their transparent efforts simply to avoid the issue of gun control.	麦康奈尔和他的共和党同僚应该解释一下为何他们连讨论一下美国枪支暴力问题的解决方案都不愿意，不能允许他们继续虚与委蛇规避控枪问题。


And they must be held accountable for their positions, which reflect an instinct, both telling and chilling, to view any discussion about gun violence as a political issue, offering an opportunity to score partisan points, rather than as a policy and public-safety issue.	此外，还必须对他们的立场进行问责，他们的立场可以体现出，对于任何关于将枪支暴力作为政治问题（因此也是给党派评分的机会），而不是作为政策和公共安全问题而进行的讨论，他们的本能观点为何——生动而令人胆寒。


One could argue that the repeated mass shootings in the United States over the past few decades have all had a Republican stamp on them.	可以说，美国在过去几十年里一再发生的大规模枪击案，无不带有共和党的戳记。


After every (predictable) tragedy, the party mobilizes to block any legislation that might strengthen gun controls.	在每一场（预料之内的）悲剧后，共和党都会动员阻挠可能加强控枪的立法。


In 1996, the Republican-controlled Congress went so far as to threaten to defund the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention if it even tried to study gun violence.	1996年，共和党控制的国会甚至威胁说，如果疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）准备研究枪支暴力，就要取消对它的拨款。


Until the Sandy Hook massacre in 2012, the CDC was forced to abstain from conducting any such research.	CDC被迫放弃所有这方面的研究，直到2012年发生桑迪胡克（Sandy Hook）枪击案。


The response to the Las Vegas shooting from Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, has been to dismiss the issue of guns, and to instead frame the tragedy as primarily a mental-health issue.	众议长保罗·瑞恩（Paul Ryan）对拉斯维加斯枪击案的反应回避枪支问题，而是将这场悲剧归结为主要是心理健康问题。


Accordingly, Ryan has been breathily touting reforms to the mental-health system that Republicans supposedly worked on in the past.	据此，瑞恩气愤地要求通过据说共和党此前致力于此的心理健康制度改革。


But Ryan chose not to mention the fact that, this past February, his Republican colleagues (and four Democrats) in the Senate voted to revoke a rule requiring the Social Security Administration to report the names of mentally-disabled Social Security recipients to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System.	但瑞恩没有提到一个事实：今年2月，他的参议院共和党同僚（以及四名民主党）支持撤销一条要求社会保障署（Social Security Administration）向美国犯罪背景检查系统（National Instant Criminal Background Check System）报告有精神残疾的社会保障用户姓名的规则。


After that vote, US President Donald Trump repealed the rule, allowing mentally ill individuals to purchase deadly firearms without hindrance.	这场投票后，美国总统特朗普取消了这条规则，允许精神病患者自由购买致命火器。


Ryan also neglected to mention that his party’s repeated efforts to repeal the 2010 Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) included plans to defund mental-health programs, and to eliminate a rule requiring insurance companies and Medicaid to provide mental-health treatments.	瑞恩没有提到，在他的政党反复尝试的取消2010年平价医疗法（“奥巴马医保”）的计划中，就包括取消心理健康项目拨款以及取消一条要求保险公司和医疗补助（Medicaid）提供心理健康治疗的规则。


Journalists and pundits tend to be vague when assessing culpability in this distinctly American tale.	记者和专家在分析这个带有鲜明的美国印记的罪案时，总是语焉不详。


They blame the failure to address America’s gun-violence problem on Congress, the “Washington establishment,” or the political system as a whole.	他们将美国枪支暴力问题得不到解决归咎于国会、“华盛顿建制派”或整个政治制度。


Such manufactured even-handedness is tantamount to “fake news.”	这种刻意的一碗水端平的做法和“假新闻”没有什么区别。


It is time to call a spade a spade: the Republican Party is overwhelmingly responsible.	是时候直言不讳了：共和党要负全部责任。


Consider the issue of “bump stocks,” the gun modification that the perpetrator of the Las Vegas massacre used to be able to fire faster.	以“撞火枪托”问题为例。 撞火枪托是对枪支的改装，让拉斯维加斯枪击犯能够更快地开火。


Some Republican senators have now drawn praise for indicating that they will support a ban on the device.	一些共和党参议员现在因为表示将支持禁用这一装置而受到赞扬。


But when Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein proposed a similar ban in 2013, Republicans overwhelmingly opposed her.	但当2013年民主党参议员戴安妮·费恩斯坦（Diane Feinstein）提出类似的禁令时，共和党却一致反对她。


After decades of such staunch opposition to any semblance of gun control, the small amount of flexibility Republicans are showing on banning bump stocks – which will just make killing with semi-automatic weapons slightly slower – should not be reason for high praise.	几十年来，共和党一致顽固地反对任何控枪的姿，如今，共和党在禁用撞火枪托方面表现出一丝灵活性——而这只能让用半自动武器杀人变得更慢一些——这绝不应该成为鼓掌的理由。


To be sure, some congressional Democrats and independents have occasionally joined with Republicans in blocking gun-control legislation.	平心而论，一些国会民主党和独立人士偶尔也会加入共和党的行列阻止控枪立法。


But there is a fundamental difference: Democrats who oppose gun controls do so in defiance of their party’s official program, whereas Republicans do so in conformity with theirs.	但这里有一个根本性区别：反对控枪的民主党这样做是有悖于本党官方立场的； 而共和党这样做是契合本党立场的。


As a result, the degree of culpability between the parties is not even close.	因此，两党之间的罪恶程度不可同日而语。


For evidence of this, one need only follow the money.	要寻找这方面的证据，只消跟着钱的流向即可。


According to the Los Angeles Times, in 2016, the National Rifle Association (NRA) donated $52.6 million to electoral campaigns, of which just $265 – yes, you read that right – went to Democratic candidates.	据《洛杉矶时报》，2016年美国步枪协会（NRA）为选战投入了5,260万美元，其中只有265美元——是的，你没有看错——给了民主党候选人。


McConnell received $1.3 million from the NRA in 2016 alone.	麦康奈尔在2016年这一年里就从NRA获得130万美元。


After the 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, where a lone gunman murdered 26 schoolchildren and their teachers, Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat, proposed a bill to require universal background checks on all commercial gun purchases.	2012年，独行枪击犯在康涅狄格州牛顿市桑迪胡克小学杀死了26名学生和他们的老师，案发后，民主党参议员乔·曼钦（Joe Manchin）提出了一项要求对所有商业枪支采购者进行背景调查。


The Manchin Amendment failed to gain the 60 votes needed to overcome a Republican filibuster.	曼钦修正案没能获得所需要的60票以克服共和党的冗长演说。


Just four of the 54 senators who voted in favor of the bill were Republicans; only five of the 46 senators who voted against it were Democrats.	在54名投票支持该法案的参议员中，只有四名是共和党； 在46名投票反对的参议员中，只有五名民主党。


Mass murderers such as Adam Lanza at Sandy Hook, Omar Mateen at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando in 2016, Stephen Paddock in Las Vegas, and countless others pulled the trigger.	像桑迪胡克案中的亚当·兰扎（Adam Lanza）、2016年奥兰多Pulse夜总会枪击案中的奥马尔·马丁（Omar Mateen）、拉斯维加斯枪击案中的史蒂芬·帕多克（Stephen Paddock）以及其他许多的杀人狂按下了他们的扳机。


But the Republican Party acted as a political accomplice to all of these murderous acts.	但民主党的行为，可以说是这些杀戮的政治帮凶。


America’s Supply-Side Scam	美国的供给侧骗局


NEW HAVEN – Tax cuts masquerading as tax reform are the best way to describe the thrust of Washington’s latest policy gambit.	纽黑文—伪装成税收改革的减税，这是对华盛顿最新政策对局主旨的最佳写照。


The case is largely political – namely, the urgency of a Republican Congress to deliver a legislative victory for a Republican president.	这主要是个政治问题——即共和党把持的国会急于要为共和党总统实现一次立法胜利。


The consequences, however, are ultimately economic – and, unsurprisingly, likely to be far worse than the politicians are willing to admit.	但是，其结果说到底是经济性的——并且，毫不意外地，可能会比政客们所愿意承认的糟糕得多。


Taking the lead from President Donald Trump, the political case for tax cuts is that they are essential to “make America great again.”	在特朗普总统的领导下，减税的政治理由是它们是“让美国再次伟大”的关键。


Over-taxed and cheated by bad trade deals, goes the argument, America needs tax relief to revive its competitive prowess.	这一观点认为，过度征税和用坏交易协议骗税使得美国需要用减税来重振其竞争力。


Notwithstanding the political pandering to hard-pressed middle-class families, corporate America is clearly the focus of these efforts, with proposed legislation aiming to reduce business tax rates from 35% to 20%.	尽管政治推销主要对准了饱受压榨的中产阶级家庭，但美国企业显然才是这些措施的重点，建议的立法方案的目标是将企业税率从35%降低到20%。


Never mind that US companies currently pay a surprisingly low effective corporate tax rate – just 22% – when judged against post-World War II experience.	从二战后的经验衡量，美国公司的有效公司税率其实非常低——只有22%，但这并不重要。


And pay no attention to the latest tally of international competitiveness by the World Economic Forum, which finds the US back in second place (out of 137 countries). And, of course, don’t draw comfort from the lofty stock-market valuations of the broad constellation of US companies.	也不要管什么世界经济论坛（World Economic Forum）的最新国际竞争力评分，其中美国回升至第二位（总共有137个国家上榜）。


Forget all that, Republicans insist: cut business taxes, they say, and all that ails America will be cured.	当然，美国公司股市估值普遍高企，这也绝对不是问题。


There are times when the politicization of economic arguments becomes dangerous.	有时候，将经济观点政治化会带来危险。


This is one of those times.	现在就是如此。


The US simply can’t afford the current tax cuts making their way through Congress.	如果让最新减税计划在国会通过，美国将“吃不了兜着走”。


According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the cuts will result in a cumulative deficit of about $1.4 trillion over the next decade.	据无党派立场的国会预算办公室（CBO）的计算，减税将在未来十年造成大约1. 4万亿美元的累计赤字。


The problem arises because America’s chronic saving shortfall has now moved into the danger zone, making it much more difficult to fund multi-year deficits today than was the case when cutting taxes in the past.	问题产生的原因是美国长期以来的储蓄短缺问题现在已经进入了危险区，如果现在减税的话，美国将比以往更加难以为多年的赤字寻找融资。


The so-called Kennedy tax cuts of 1964 and the Reagan tax cuts of 1981 are important cases in point.	所谓的1964年肯尼迪减税和1981年里根减税是重要的例子。


The net national saving rate – the broadest measure of domestic saving, which includes depreciation-adjusted saving of households, businesses, and the government sector – averaged 10.1% during those two years (1964 and 1981).	净国民储蓄率——对国内储蓄的最广泛的指标，其中包括经折旧调整的家庭、企业和政府部门储蓄——在这两年（1964年和1981年）中平均为10.


In other words, back then the US could afford to enact major tax cuts.	1%。 换句话说，当时的美国负担得起大规模减税。


That is not the case today, with the net domestic saving rate a mere 1.8% of national income.	今时不同往日。 当前净国内储蓄率只有国民收入的1.


Even during the two tax cuts that followed – the second installment of Reagan’s fiscal program in 1986, and the initiatives of George W. Bush in 2001 – the net national saving rate averaged 4.2%, more than double the current level.	即使在后来的两次减税中——1986年里根的第二期财政计划和2001年小布什的减税政策——净国民储蓄率平均也有4. 2%，比当前水平高出一倍有余。


Both experience and macroeconomic theory indicate what to expect.	经验和宏观经济理论都说明了会发生什么。


Saving-short economies simply cannot go on deficit-spending binges without borrowing surplus saving from abroad.	储蓄短缺经济根本无法在不借入海外盈余储蓄的情况下保持赤字支出。


That is what brings the balance-of-payments and trade deficits directly into the debate over fiscal policy.	因此，国际收支平衡和贸易赤字问题也被直接引入了关于财政政策的争论中。


Significantly, the US current account was in slight surplus during the big tax cuts of 1964 and 1981 – in sharp contrast to today’s deficit of 2.6% of GDP.	值得注意的是，在1964年和1981年大减税期间，美国的经常项目是略有盈余——这与今天占GDP的2. 6%的赤字形成了鲜明对比。


With fiscal deficits likely to push an already-low domestic saving rate even lower – possibly back into negative territory, as was the case from 2008-11 – there is a great risk of a sharply higher current-account deficit.	财政赤字可能导致已经很低的国内储蓄率进一步下降——有可能进入负区间，2008—2011年就发生过这样的情况——因此有很大的可能，经常项目赤字会剧烈升高。


And a bigger current-account deficit means that the already-large trade deficit will only widen further, violating one of the main tenets of Trumponomics – that making America great again requires closing the trade gap.	而经常项目赤字增加意味着已经很庞大的贸易赤字将进一步扩大，从而违反了特朗普经济学的主要信条之一——让美国再次伟大需要缩小贸易缺口。


It is at this point where the tale goes from fact to fiction.	这就是这个故事从事实变成虚妄之处。


Trump and the congressional Republican majority insist that the proposed tax cuts will be self-financing, because they will spur economic growth, causing revenues to surge.	特朗普和国会共和党多数派坚持说，他们的减税方案将实现收支平衡（self-financing），因为这样能够刺激经济增长，使税收收入大幅增加。


This so-called supply-side argument, first advanced in support of the Reagan-era tax cuts, has been a lightning rod in US fiscal policy debates ever since.	这一所谓的供给侧论点首先出现在支持里根时代减税的论调中，此后便一直是美国财政政策争论的引雷针。


Reality has turned out quite differently than the supply-siders envisioned.	现实和供给派所的构想的情景大相径庭。


Yes, the economy recovered spectacularly from a deep recession in 1981-1982.	诚然，经济从1981—1982年的深度衰退中漂亮地复苏了。


But that was due largely to an aggressive easing of monetary policy following the Federal Reserve’s successful assault on double-digit US inflation.	但这主要是因为美联储在成功阻击了两位数的美国通胀后采取了大规模放松了货币政策。


By contrast, the fiscal nirvana long promised by supply siders never materialized.	相反，供给派所许诺的财政涅槃从未实现过。


Far from vanishing into thin air, federal budget deficits ballooned to 3.8% of GDP during the 1980s, taking public debt from 25% of GDP in 1980 to 41% by 1990.	联邦财政赤字并没有烟消云散，而是在20世纪80年代期间膨胀到GDP的3. 8%，公债占GDP之比从1980年的25%升高到1990年的41%。


Not only did the supply siders’ self-funding promises go unfulfilled; they also marked the beginning of the end for America’s balance-of-payments equilibrium.	供给派的收支平衡承诺非但从未实现； 它们还标志着美国国际收支均衡时代结束的开始。


From 1960 to 1982, the current account was basically in balance, with a surplus averaging 0.2% of GDP.	从1960年到1982年，经常项目大体保持平衡，盈余平均为GDP的0.


On the heels of the budget deficits of Reaganomics and the related plunge in national saving, the current account swung sharply into deficit, averaging -2.4% of GDP from 1983 to 1989.	2%。 里根经济学造成预算赤字、导致国民储蓄大降后，经常项目也急转直下，1983—1989年间平均为GDP的-2.


And it has remained in deficit ever since (with the exception of a temporary reprieve in the first two quarters of 1991 due to external funding of the Gulf War).	4%，并在此后一直保持负值（除了1991年前两个季度因为海湾战争的外部资金而暂时转正）。


Far from a recipe for greatness, the Trump fiscal gambit spells serious trouble.	特朗普的财政策略绝非伟大秘笈，反而会带来严重的麻烦。


Lacking in saving, outsize US budget deficits point to sharp deterioration on the balance-of-payment and trade fronts.	在缺少储蓄的情况下，庞大的美国预算赤字意味着国际收支和贸易阵线的急剧恶化。


Nor will creative supply-side accounting alter that outcome.	创造性供给侧会计方法也无法改变这一结果。


A “dynamic scoring” by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center suggests growth windfalls might prune the multiyear deficit from $1.4 trillion to $1.3 trillion over the next decade – hardly enough to finesse America’s intractable funding problem.	无党派立场的税收政策中心（Tax Policy Center）“动态计分”表明，增长惊喜可能让未来十年的多年赤字从1. 4万亿美元下降到1.


George H.W. Bush said it best when he was campaigning for the Republican presidential nomination in April 1980.	老布什在1980年4月竞争共和党总统提名时说得好。


He rightly criticized the “voodoo economic policy” of his opponent, Ronald Reagan.	他正确地批评了他的对手里根的“巫毒经济政策”。


For today’s saving-short US economy, déjà vu is a painful understatement of what lies ahead.	对今天的储蓄不足的美国经济来说，“往事重现”将是对未来的令人痛苦的轻描淡写。


Making America’s Deficits Great Again	让美国的赤字再次伟大


FRANKFURT – US President Donald Trump and congressional Republican allies have succeeded in passing their big tax legislation.	法兰克福—美国总统特朗普和国会共和党盟友们成功地通过了税收大法案。


While it lacks many of the desirable attributes of true tax reform, it amounts to a success for Trump, who failed to deliver any other major piece of legislation during the first year of his administration.	这个法案并不具备真正的税收改革的诸多可取的属性，但仍然是特朗普的一次成功——在他执政的第一年里，除此之外再无任何重大立法成就。


But what will it mean for Trump’s other major promise, to cut the US trade deficit?	但这对于特朗普的另一个重大承诺——削减美国贸易赤字意味着什么呢？


Simply put, the Republicans’ tax law – which emphasizes big cuts, especially for corporations and the highest-income earners – is virtually certain to widen the budget deficit and, in turn, increase the current-account deficit.	简言之，共和党的税收立法——它强调大幅减税，特别是减少公司和高收入群体的税收——几乎肯定会扩大预算赤字，并反过来增加经常项目赤字。