The agreement will also spur major manufacturers such as Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, and Embraer – which are already investing in quieter, more fuel-efficient aircraft and efficiency improvements for existing models – to develop cleaner technologies that will allow them to purchase fewer emissions offsets.	协定还将刺激波音、空中客车、庞巴迪和巴西航空等主要生产商开发更清洁的技术，从而减少排放抵扣的购买量。 这些公司已经开始投资于更安静、燃料效率更高的飞机，并对现有机型进行改良。


However, the framework decided in Montreal is not complete, and crucial details need to be worked out quickly so that airlines can begin to plan how they will meet the new environmental targets.	但是，在蒙特利尔所确定的框架并不完整，必须加快制定关键细节，以使航空公司能够开始着手规划如何实现新环境目标。


Developed countries have already offered to help implement the GMBM, which, it is hoped, will pave the way for investments in emerging economies that are becoming new aviation powerhouses.	发达国家已经提出了帮助实施GMBM的方案，希望可以扫清投资于正日益成为新航空大国的新兴经济体的道路。


If the countries can leapfrog over old technologies, they can become new leaders in carbon-smart flying.	如果可以跨越旧技术，就能成为碳职能（carbon-smart）飞行的新领导者。


They should seize the opportunity before them and join the ICAO framework so that their manufacturers have a clear and predictable path forward.	它们应该抓住眼前的机会，加入ICAO框架以使其生产商得到明确可预测的前进方向。


At the Paris climate talks last year, we witnessed the power of global collective action to address climate change.	在去年的巴黎气候谈判上，我们看到了全球合作解决气候变化问题的力量。


No fewer than 187 countries – large and small, developed and developing – announced emissions-reduction targets in the months before the conference, which created the momentum to reach a landmark accord.	不少于187个国家——不管大小、是否发达——在会议开始前几个月宣布了减排目标，这位达成里程碑式协定创造了势头。


With the Paris climate agreement on track to enter into force in the coming months – more rapidly than anyone ever thought possible – we still have that momentum.	随着巴黎气候协定距离几个月后生效越走越近——比任何人所预想的都要快——我们仍保持着这一势头。


The ICAO agreement is the next wave in the international battle against climate change.	ICAO协定是对抗气候变化的国际战争的新一波浪潮。


Together, the two agreements will boost our chances of delivering environmentally sustainable economic growth.	这两个协定加起来将增加我们实现环境可持续经济增长的机会。


By cleaning up our carbon footprint now, future generations of air travelers from all countries will be able to look out their window onto a healthy planet.	通过从现在开始明确我们的碳足迹，未来航空旅行者不管来自哪个国家，都能够从舷窗看到健康的地球。


Europe’s Airpocalypse	欧洲空气启示录


SINGAPORE – European policymakers like to lecture the rest of the world on air pollution.	新加坡—欧洲决策者喜欢给世界其他地区上空气污染课。


Asia, and China in particular, is a favorite target for criticism.	亚洲，特别是中国是他们最喜欢的目标。


Indeed, it sometimes seems as if no major environmental conference is complete without a presentation by European policymakers on their continent’s supposed “best practices,” which the rest of the world should emulate.	事实上，有时候，似乎任何大型环境会议缺了欧洲决策者宣讲应该供全世界模仿的欧洲的所谓“最佳实践”都是不完整的。


When it comes to air pollution, however, Europe might consider doing less talking and more listening.	但是，在空气污染问题上，欧洲还是少说多听为妙。


Air pollution is a growing concern across Europe.	空气污染正在日益成为全欧洲关注的问题。


The World Health Organization has called it the continent’s “single largest environmental health risk,” estimating that 90% of Europe’s citizens are exposed to outdoor pollution that exceeds WHO air-quality guidelines.	世界卫生组织称它是“欧洲大陆最大的环境健康风险”，据估计90%的欧洲公民暴露在超出世卫组织空气质量指导标准的室外污染中。


In 2010, some 600,000 European citizens died prematurely because of outdoor and indoor air pollution, and the economic costs have been put at $1.6 trillion, roughly 9% of the European Union’s GDP.	2010年，大约600,000欧洲公民因为室外和室内空气污染而过早死亡，而经济成本更是高达1. 6万亿美元，相当于欧盟GDP的9%左右。


London and Paris suffer from particularly severe air-quality problems.	伦敦和巴黎因为严重的空气质量问题而损失惨重。


Nitrogen dioxide levels in some parts of London regularly reach 2-3 times the recommended limit.	伦敦某些地方的二氧化氮水平有时高达建议上限的2—3倍。


In the United Kingdom, air pollution kills some 29,000 people a year, putting it second only to smoking as a cause of premature death.	在英国，空气污染k每年要杀死29,000人左右，是仅次于吸烟的第二大过早死亡原因。


Paris may be even worse off; in March, after air-pollution levels surpassed Shanghai’s, the city imposed a partial driving ban and introduced free public transportation.	巴黎的情况比伦敦还要糟糕； 3月，巴黎空气污染水平超过上海，不得不实施局部限行并推出免费公交。


Sadly, Europe’s policymakers do not seem up to the challenge.	悲哀的是，欧洲决策者似乎并未直面挑战。


George Osborne, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, has argued against British leadership in the fight against climate change.	英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本（George Osborne）反对英国在对抗气候变化中其领导作用。


“We are not going to save the planet by shutting down our steel mills, aluminum smelters, and paper manufacturers,” he declared in 2011.	“我们不会为了拯救地球而关掉我们的轧钢厂、炼铝厂和造纸厂，”他在2011年说道。


Osborne is not alone.	奥斯本不是一个人。


With European politicians arguing that introducing environmental safeguards will hurt the EU’s already-weakened economy, it comes as little surprise that measures to limit air pollution fall far short of the mark.	欧洲政客认为引入环境保护机制会影响已经相当疲软的欧盟经济，因此，毫不奇怪遏制空气污染的措施远远达不到要求。


The EU’s proposed standards regulating toxic emissions from coal plants are even less strict than China’s, Greenpeace reports.	据绿色和平组织报告欧盟计划采取的限制火电厂有害气体排放的标准甚至还没有中国严格。


Yet various European politicians have called for watering them down even further, with Hungary suggesting that they be scrapped altogether.	但许多欧洲政客还要求进一步降低标准，匈牙利认为应该完全放弃监管。


To be sure, air pollution levels in Asia are truly worrisome.	平心而论，亚洲空气污染水平确实值得担忧。


The continent is home to nine of the world’s ten most polluted countries, according to Yale University’s 2014 Air Quality Ranking.	根据2014年耶鲁大学空气质量排名，世界十大污染最严重国家中有九个位于亚洲。


New Delhi is ranked as the most polluted city on earth, with air pollution exceeding safe levels by a factor of 60.	新德里位列地球城市污染程度榜第一名，空气污染超过安全水平60倍。


Owing to Beijing’s unhealthy air, foreign companies pay a “hardship bonus” of up to 30% to employees working there.	由于北京的空气危害健康，外国公司必须向驻北京员工支付高达30%的“困难费”。


But at least policymakers in Asia have recognized the problem and are taking steps to address it.	但至少亚洲决策者认识到了这一问题，并在采取行动解决它。


China, for example, has declared a “war on pollution.”	比如，中国宣布要打一场“污染之仗”。


By 2017, Beijing – once dubbed “Greyjing” by the international media – will spend some CN¥760 billion ($121 billion) to combat air pollution.	到2017年，曾经被国际媒体戏称为“霾都”的北京将斥资7,600亿元人民币治理空气污染。


At the heart of China’s measures are improved public transportation, green trade, and a revision of the energy mix.	中国的措施的核心是改进公共交通、绿色贸易和改变能源结构。


The government has decided to install bus stops every 500 meters in city centers, reduce tariffs to 5% or less for a list of 54 environmental goods, and decommission many outdated and inefficient coal plants.	政府在市中心每隔500米设立一个公交站点，将54种环境产品的关税下降到5%或以下。


The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption is expected to increase to 20% by 2030.	非化石燃料占初级燃料消费量的比重到2030年将上升到20%。


These targets are likely to be rigorously implemented, given strong political support from the very top.	这些目标有可能得到严格实施，因为它们得到了最高层的强力政治支持。


Meanwhile, in India, the state governments in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are about to launch the world’s first cap-and-trade schemes for particulates.	与此同时，载运毒，古吉拉特、马哈拉施特拉和泰米尔纳德等邦准备实施世界上首个微粒配额和交易机制。


India’s Supreme Court even suggested an extra charge on privately owned diesel vehicles in New Delhi.	印度最高法院甚至建议对新德里私家柴油机动车征收附加费。


Other parts of Asia are also taking steps to improve air quality.	其他亚洲国家也在采取措施改善空气质量。


Vietnam aims to construct eight urban rail lines in the coming years.	越南目标在未来几年中建设八条城市轨道交通线。


Bangkok, which has been tackling air pollution since the 1990s, has planted 400,000 trees.	曼谷从20世纪90年代便开始治理空气污染，种植了400,000株树木。


And Japan is offering subsidies for hydrogen cars and creating new pedestrian-only areas.	日本也采取了氢燃料汽车补贴，开辟新的步行区域。


Europe, as one of the world’s wealthiest regions, ought to be at the forefront of the effort to promote environmental sustainability.	作为世界最富有地区之一的欧洲理应站在促进环境可持续性的最前沿。


When it comes to air pollution, however, Europe’s policymakers should stop preaching to others and focus on fixing their own problems.	但是，在空气污染问题上，欧洲决策者应该停止好为人师，专注于解决自身问题。


A Japanese Metamorphosis?	日本的转型？


OSAKA – Yesterday’s landslide general-election victory by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) terminated the one-party-dominated system that the catch-all Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has controlled almost without interruption since 1955.	大阪——昨天日本民主党（DPJ）在大选中以压倒性优势获胜结束了自民党无所不能的（LDP）一党专政体系，从1955年以后一党专政体系的控制权就一直牢牢掌握在自民党手中。


For most of the last decade, the DPJ was not seen as a viable alternative to the LDP, although they appeared to form a pseudo-two-party system.	过去10年来，尽管伪两党体系已经初见规模，但民主党一直被看作自民党可能的替代党派。


Twenty years after the Cold War’s end, Japan will at last have a post-Cold War system of government.	冷战结束20年后，日本终于即将建立起后冷战时期的政府体系。


The Japanese public, even now, remains uncertain about the DPJ’s ability to govern and is skeptical of its rosy programs of wealth redistribution, which lack solid funding.	即便现在，日本公众仍然对民主党的执政能力和缺乏资金支持的财富再分配的诱人计划持怀疑态度。


The public is also fully aware that the ideologically fragmented DPJ lacks a pragmatic, coherent foreign and security policy	公众也非常清楚在意识形态上壁垒分明的民主党不具备现实、连贯的外交和安全政策。


Yet the DPJ will form the next government because of public disgust with the LDP.	但公众对于自民党的厌恶情绪却使民主党登上了下届政府宝座。


For the last four years, the LDP had shown itself to be utterly unresponsive to the key issues of popular concern: pensions, unemployment, and the fraying social safety net.	四年来，自民党彻底无视公众所关注的养老金、失业和社会安全网损坏等关键性问题。


Moreover, the LDP was plagued by a string of minor scandals and consistent bungling.	此外，自民党还受到一系列丑闻的困扰，并一如既往地表现出拙劣的执政能力。


The LDP’s need for three different prime ministers in the space of little more than a year made plain that the party’s power nucleus had melted down.	自民党在短短一年多的时间里更换三名首相充分说明该党的权力核心已经解体。


Once in power, the DPJ will immediately confront the massive bureaucracy and entrenched mandarins, which usually sabotage any efforts at administrative reform that threatens their power and vested interests.	掌权以后，民主党将立即需要面对庞大的官僚体系和根深蒂固的官僚家族，它们会故意破坏威胁其权力和既得利益的任何行政改革政策。


Indeed, immediately after the election, the budget estimates for the next fiscal year are due.	实际上，这次选举刚刚结束，下一年度的财政预算案就必须提交。


The figures that will be presented are the result of a lengthy process, in which the bureaucracy closely consulted with LDP.	提交的预算数字需要经过繁琐的程序，在此期间需要官僚体系与自民党密切配合。


So, without breaking the regular budget cycle, the DPJ will be forced to implement not only the supplementary budget drawn up by the LDP, but will also be stuck with next year’s budget, which embodies LDP policies that the DPJ has denounced.	因此，如果不打破常规的预算周期，民主党将被迫执行自民党制定的补充预算计划，而且还必须接受下一年度预算，而这份预算恰恰体现了民主党一直声讨的自民党政策。


As a result, the DPJ has announced plans to revoke the LDP’s guidelines for a ceiling on budget requests so as to formulate its own budget from scratch.  It will also revise the supplementary budget as well.	因此，民主党已经宣布废除自民党规则的计划，取消预算申请上限，以便从零开始制定自己的预算计划。 它还将修改补充预算计划。


But time is short, and few of new DPJ lawmakers possess the legislative experience and budgetary expertise to make that happen.	但时间太过短暂，并且没有多少民主党立法人员掌握达到目标所需的立法经验和预算知识。


To gain control of the mandarins, the DPJ plans to place 100 lawmakers in the ministries’ top leadership, as well as three dozen political appointees to policy staffs in the office of the prime minister.	为了控制官僚体系，民主党计划安排100名立法人员担任各部的高层领导，并任命三十六名政治特派员承担首相办公室的政策工作。


Unfortunately, the DPJ scrapped an LDP-sponsored civil-service reform bill, which would have allowed the DPJ to replace mandarins with an army of political appointees.	令人遗憾的是，民主党否决了一项由自民党提出的公务员改革法案，这项法案本可以允许民主党用政治特派员取代官僚家族。


The DPJ, despite its manifesto, seems unprepared to tame the mandarins, and so may be forced to rely on them.	尽管表面上态度坚决，但民主党似乎还没有准备好驯服各级官僚，因此可能最终不得不接受以他们为依托。


The ascendency of the mandarins is a legacy of Japan’s unique historical development dating back to its early modern period.	官僚家族的优越地位可以追溯到日本现代化早期独特的历史发展道路。


Unlike in Europe, Japan developed its state before building a strong civil society.	和欧洲不同的是，日本在强大的公民社会形成之前就已经建立了国家。


Indeed, full-fledged “society”-building started only after the 1868 Meiji Restoration, which tipped the balance of power definitively in favor of the state.	实际上，全方位的“社会”建设在1868年明治维新之后才真正开始，从而导致权力的天平彻底地向国家方向倾斜。


As a result, the mandarins survived WWII and the postwar American occupation relatively undamaged, and they will strive to survive the DPJ government as well.	官僚家族因此相对完好地度过了二战和战后的美国占领，此次他们同样也能安然度过民主党政府的任期。


They will most likely succeed.	他们很有可能再次成功逃脱。


LDP lawmakers and mandarins developed a routine in which mandarins drafted cabinet-sponsored bills, LDP lawmakers checked the bills, and the two together finalized legislative drafts before they were introduced to the Diet (parliament).	自民党立法人员和官僚家族形成了一套常规程序，由官僚家族负责制定内阁法案，立法人员负责审核，再由两者共同拿出最终的决议草案，而后再提交议会表决。


Since the LDP, recently with a coalition partner, controlled the Diet, the legislative process was simply the interaction between LDP lawmakers and mandarins, centered in the LDP’s headquarters.	自从自民党不久前与联盟伙伴共同控制议会以后，立法过程就成了以自民党总部为核心的自民党立法人士和官僚家族之间的互动。


The Diet’s role was merely pro forma.	议会不过起到了形式上的作用。


Indeed, under the LDP-led one-party-dominant system, this extra-constitutional mechanism became an integral part of Japan’s government polity.	实际上，在自民党领导的一党专政制度下，上述宪法外机制已经成为日本政府政体不可分割的组成部分。


The DPJ government will collide head-on with the mandarins, partly because the party will find it hard to recruit sufficiently qualified policymakers.	民主党政府将直接与官僚体系发生碰撞，部分原因是民主党难以招募到足够数量的合格决策者。


The mandarins have maintained their privileged position in this regard, owing partly to the tax system, which prevents the emergence of non-profit institutions, especially think tanks, where independent policy expertise can be forged.	官僚家族在上述领域一直保持着优势地位，这部分需要归功于税收体系妨碍了非营利性机构，特别是智库的产生，而独立的政策知识正需要通过以上渠道获得。


Moreover, perhaps in anticipation of a change in power, the mandarins have moved forward the annual personnel changes in the major ministries’ top administrative positions.	此外，或许是预见到了权力的变化，官僚家族已经推动了主要部委高层行政职务的年度人员更替过程。


And what of the LDP?	那么自民党的境况又将如何？


Having fallen from power, it will lose its control of the redistribution of government funds.	失去权力后，它将无法控制政府资金再分配。


Unable to pay off its constituencies, disintegration looms, for the LDP has never been a party with entrenched grass-roots support, but instead operates as a machine of power and redistribution through a web of insiders across the country’s industrial sectors, occupational associations, and local communities.	如果无法兑现承诺给支持者的好处，就有可能导致分崩离析的结果，因为自民党从来就匮乏根深蒂固的基层民众支持，而是通过与遍布全国的行业部门、职业协会和当地社区的内部人士联网实现对权力和再分配机器的操纵。


Only by recruiting new blood and reorganizing itself with a solid ideological platform will an LDP comeback be possible.	只有通过吸收新鲜血液和重建牢固的意识形态，自民党才有可能重新执政。


The DPJ has even weaker grass-roots support, so the mandarins will most likely use their standard techniques of divide and rule to cajole the party by teaching it to mimic the LDP in using state money and contracts to underwrite its major constituencies, such as labor unions and other interest groups.	民主党的基层支持更为薄弱，因此官僚家族极有可能利用其分而治之的标准策略，诱骗民主党像自民党一样利用国家资金和政府合同来回馈工会和其他利益组织等主要的支持者。


The birth of the DPJ government can yet be a turning point.	民主党政府的诞生仍然可以是一次转折。


A major power shift in favor of “society” has taken place.	一次有利于“社会”的权力转型已经发生。


If the DPJ can break free of mandarin control by centralizing policy formation in the office of the prime minister, as it intends, Japan can emerge as a more resilient democracy with a full-fledged two-party system and greater willingness to assume an international leadership role.	如果民主党能像自己希望的那样通过集中首相办公室的政策制定来摆脱官僚家族的控制，日本就能够成为一个更有活力的民主国家，拥有更加完善的两党制度，也更愿意发挥国际领导作用。


A Jobless Recovery?	失业问题困扰下的复苏？


CAMBRIDGE – Who will suffer the longest and the most from the implosion in 2008-2009 of Wall Street and the ensuing world recession?	剑桥——2008至2009年华尔街风暴和紧接着的全球衰退中，谁会受到最长期、最猛烈的打击？


Not the bankers and financiers who created the disaster.	不是造成这场灾难的银行家和金融家。


Some financiers, like Bernard Madoff, will go to prison for fraud.	某些金融家会因欺诈入狱，例如伯纳德·麦道夫。


But, although Madoff was only the tip of the iceberg of rampant financial malfeasance, most suspect financiers need not fear arrest, either because their behavior merely skirted the law, or because financial impropriety more subtle than outright fraud is often difficult to prove.	但是，尽管麦道夫丑闻只是猖獗的金融违法行为的冰山一角，但大多数有嫌疑的金融家并不需要担心被捕，因为他们的行为只是打了法律的擦边球，或者是因为比彻底的欺诈更微妙的金融不当行为通常很难取证。


Some bank bosses will retire in shame, but with huge payments to ease their pain – such as the $55 million golden parachute handed to Bank of America’s Ken Lewis, with his, and the £25 million pension bestowed on Royal Bank of Scotland’s Fred Godwin.	一些银行老板会在耻辱中下台，但会得到巨额的补偿来缓解他们的痛苦——例如美国银行的肯·刘易斯得到价值5500万美元的“金色降落伞”，又如苏格兰皇家银行的弗雷德·歌德温得到2500万英镑退休金。


But, buoyed by government bailout money, guarantees, and low interest rates, many banks have again begun to pay their top managers huge bonuses while fighting vigorously against reforms designed to restrain their risk-taking and compensation.	然而，在得到政府紧急融资、担保和低利率的支援后，许多银行又开始给高层管理者支付巨额的奖金，同时强烈地反对旨在限制他们冒险和补偿的改革。


The big losers from this economic disaster are workers in the advanced countries that bought into the laissez-faire flexibility of American-style capitalism.	这场经济灾难的大输家是那些认同美式资本主义放任自流政策的发达国家的工人。


From 2007 to October 2009, the United States lost nearly eight million jobs, which reduced the employment-population ratio from 63% to 58.5%.	从2007年到2009年10月，美国失去了近800万个工作岗位，就业人口率从63%下降到58. 5%。


The unemployment rate at the end of 2009 was above 10%, duration of joblessness was the longest since the Great Depression, millions had had their working hours cut, and millions more were too discouraged by a lack of jobs to seek work.	2009年底的失业率超过10%，失业状态的持续时间是大萧条以来的最长，数百万人的工作时间缩短，更有数百万人因工作机会的缺乏而失去找工作的勇气。


Advanced Europe, Canada, and Japan also suffered major job losses that will last for a long time.	欧洲的发达国家、加拿大和日本也遭受了严重的失业问题，并且会持续相当长的时间。


Spain, which allows for widespread temporary contracts, has had the biggest increase in unemployment, because Spanish workers can be fired as quickly as those in the US.	允许临时合同广泛存在的西班牙失业率增幅最大，因为西班牙的工人被炒鱿鱼的速度堪比美国工人。


Some countries – for example, Germany, Sweden, and South Korea – have “hidden” their joblessness by paying firms to keep workers on the payroll.	某些国家——例如德国、瑞典和韩国——付钱给公司，让他们留住正式职员，从而“隐藏”了失业问题。


This can work in the short term, but it cannot be sustained over time.	这种做法在短期内可能有效，但不能长期维持。


From the 1980’s through the mid-2000’s, employment has increasingly lagged GDP in economic recoveries.	从上世纪80年代，一直到21世纪第一个十年中叶，就业率的恢复越来越落后于GDP。


In the US, there was a jobless recovery under President Bill Clinton until the dot.com boom in the latter part of the 1990’s, and there was a jobless recovery under George W. Bush in the wake of the 2001 slowdown.	在美国，克林顿总统治下的经济复苏就存在失业问题，直到90年代后半叶网络公司兴起。 2001年经济增长放缓之后，乔治·布什治下的经济复苏也存在失业问题。


In the early 1990’s, Sweden suffered a huge recession precipitated by a housing bubble and a banking crisis.	上世纪90年代初，瑞典因房地产泡沫和银行业危机而遭受了一场大规模的衰退，失业率从1990年的1.


Its unemployment rate rose from 1.8% in 1990 to 9.6% in 1994, before bottoming out at 5% in 2001.	8%上升到1994年的9. 6%，2001年探底后回升，达到5%。


Sixteen years after the crisis, the unemployment rate was 6.2% – more than triple the rate in 1990.	这场危机过后16年，失业率达到6. 2%——是1990年的三倍还多。


In 1997, Korea suffered not only from the Asian financial crisis, but also from insistence by the US and the International Monetary Fund that it raise interest rates and undertake “Washington Consensus”-style reforms to receive aid.	1997年，韩国不但遭受亚洲金融危机的打击，更因美国和国际货币基金组织坚持让其提高利率、执行类似华盛顿共识的改革来获取援助而雪上加霜。


Employment recovered, but primarily in “non-regular” jobs with limited benefits, low wages, and little job security.	就业率恢复了，但主要是靠福利有限、低工资、且几乎没有就业保障的“非正式”工作。


Inequality in Korea rose from moderate levels to second highest (behind the US) among advanced OECD countries.	韩国的贫富差距从中等水平跃升至经合组织发达国家中的第二高（仅次于美国）。


Weakness in the job market takes a huge toll on economic and personal well-being.	就业市场的虚弱对经济的健康和个人的幸福造成了巨大损害。


Young people seeking their first jobs and experienced workers who lose jobs in a weak job market suffer economic losses that will last their entire lives.	在虚弱的就业市场上寻找第一份工作的年轻人和工作经验丰富的失业者受到的经济损失将影响他们的一生。


Studies of happiness show that unemployment reduces happiness by as much as the loss of a family member.	幸福指数的研究表明，失业对幸福感的打击不亚于失去一名至亲。


It is difficult to see the US re-attaining full employment anytime soon.	美国很难在不久的将来重新实现充分就业。


From 1993 to 1998, the US created millions of jobs, which raised the employment rate by 5.4 percentage points.	从1993年到1998年，美国创造了数百万的工作岗位，就业率上升了5. 4个百分点。


If employment began rising at this rate in 2010, it would take until 2015 before it reached its pre-recession level.	如果就业率在2010年开始以这个速度上升，要到2015年才能重新达到衰退前的水平。


And slow recovery in the US will drag down recovery in other advanced countries, reducing their employment as well.	美国经济的缓慢复苏将会拖累其他发达国家，降低他们的就业率。


A long, painful period of high unemployment runs counter to what most experts believed the flexible US economic model would ever produce.	漫长而痛苦的高失业率与大多数专家心目中以为灵活的美国经济模式会带来的后果背道而驰。


From the early 1990’s on, many analysts viewed America’s weak unionization, at-will employment, limited legal job protection, and high job turnover as major factors in achieving a lower unemployment rate than most EU countries.	从上世纪90年代初起，许多分析家就把美国松散的工会组织、任意的聘用关系、法律对工作的有限保护、以及频繁的工作变动视为失业率低于大多数欧盟国家的主要因素。


Many OECD countries initiated various kinds of flexibility reforms in the hope of improving their economies along US lines.	许多经合组织国家启动了各种各样的灵活化改革，希望按照美国的模式改善自己的经济。


The view that flexibility is the key factor in employment is no longer tenable.	将灵活性视为保障就业关键因素的观点再也站不住脚了。


In its 2009 Employment Outlook , the OECD took a hard look at its favored policy reforms and found them deficient in helping countries adjust to a finance-driven recession.	经合组织在2009年《就业展望》中仔细审视了他们偏爱的政策改革，结果发现这些改革不足以帮助各国适应金融业引起的衰退。


According to the OECD, “there does not appear to be any strong reason to expect that recent structural reforms mean that OECD labor markets are now substantially less sensitive to severe economic downturns.”	根据经合组织的说法，“没有有力的理由让人相信近来的结构改革能有效降低经合组织国家劳动力市场对严重经济萎缩的敏感度。 ”


So the lesson from the recession is clear.	经济衰退给我们的教训已经显而易见。


The weak reed in capitalism is not the labor market, but the financial market.	资本主义的弱点不在于劳动力市场，而在于金融市场。


At worst, labor-market failures impose modest inefficiency costs on society, whereas capital-market failures harm society greatly, with workers, rather than the perpetrators of financial disaster, suffering the most.	在最糟糕的情况下，劳动力市场的衰退也只能给社会不大的效率问题，但资本市场的衰退则会极大地损害社会，而受损最严重的是工人，而不是金融灾难的罪魁祸首。


Moreover, globalization means that the US capital market’s failure spreads misery around the world.	而且，全球化意味着美国的资本市场衰退会在全球范围内造成极大影响。


We owe it to workers victimized by this recession to reinvent finance so that it works to enrich the real economy, instead of enriching only the financiers.	我们亏欠因这场衰退而受到伤害的工人，有必要彻底改造金融制度，使之推动真正的经济发展，而不是仅让金融家中饱私囊。


This means changing the incentives and rules that govern the financial sector.	这意味着改变金融部门的激励制度和规则。


Since other countries’ economies and jobs are also at stake, they owe it to their citizens to press the US to deliver meaningful financial reforms.	其他国家的经济和工作岗位同样危如累卵，因此他们为了各自的公民也必须敦促美国进行有意义的金融改革。


France’s Midsummer Night’s Dream	法国的仲夏夜之梦


PARIS – Bastille Day, the French national holiday, was glorious this year.	巴黎—巴士底日是法国的国定假日。


The military parade, dominated by the celebration of “victory” in Mali and the joint participation of African and United Nations troops, had the perfection of a gracious, albeit muscular, ballet.	今年，这个日子无比光荣。 以庆祝马里“胜利”和非洲和联合国军队联合参与为主题的军事游行堪称优美的芭蕾表演——尽管这是肌肉版芭蕾。


The classical concert that preceded the magisterial fireworks that ended the day was the closest thing to a French version of the Proms in London, mixing light classical and popular songs.	那一天的压轴表演是古典音乐会及随后的庄严的火花。 音乐会堪称法国版伦敦逍遥音乐会（Proms in London），结合了轻古典乐和流行歌曲。


The Eiffel Tower imbued the evening with its magic.	埃菲尔铁塔用它的魔力照耀着这个夜晚。


Paris, in case anyone had any lingering doubts, remains the capital of the world – or so it seemed for a night.	不管你是谁，心存何疑虑，在那个晚上，巴黎仍是世界之都。


The melancholia that began to seize France many years ago was all but forgotten.	缠上法国多年的压抑被忘得一干二净。


The celebration of the glory of the past, mixed with popular English songs of the present, seemed to indicate renewed national confidence.	对昔日荣光的庆祝，伴随着英语流行歌曲和表演，似乎在彰显重生的民族自信。


What was the meaning of this moment of grace?	这一优美时刻有着什么意义？


Was it purely the product of a collective delusion, an emotional Potemkin village of sorts, encouraged, if not conceived, by the authorities to restore some level of self-assurance among France’s depressed citizens?	它只是群体错觉的产物，是当局为了在某种程度上重塑压抑的法国国民的自尊而鼓励（如果不是说服的话）的情感上的波将金村（Potemkin village）吗？


Even if the positive emotions remain only fleeting (as seems most likely), they were real and palpable.	即使积极情绪最终只会消失殆尽（这是最有可能的情形），它们也是真实而容易捕捉的。


The French seemed to be in the mood to celebrate.	法国人沉浸在喜庆之中。


Of course, it could simply have been the weather; a gorgeous summer has finally settled in after a miserable spring.	当然，也许原因仅仅是天气——在经历了痛苦的春天后，灿烂的夏天终于到来。


But it might also have been one of those natural turning points, a collective and spontaneous decision to say: “Enough of depression, let’s move on.”	但这或许也是自然转折点之一，是集体性的同时决定：“受够了压抑，让我们前进吧。


We French may not be what we used to be, the celebrants seemed to be saying, but we are still much more than people think we are.	”庆祝者似乎在说，法国人或许已不再是昔日的法国人，但我们仍比人们所认为的更好。


We have a great revolutionary past that still conveys universal values – liberty, equality, fraternity – and an army that, as in Mali, continues to make a difference in the world.	我们有伟大的革命的过去，这一过去仍在传达普世价值——自由、平等、博爱； 我们有军队，马里证明我们的军队仍能给世界带来不同。


One can draw two lessons from this collective form of escapism.	在这一集体逃避现实中，你可以发现两点。


The first is that, beyond the many layers of depression and distrust in France, there is potential for a new and collective departure.	第一点，在法国内部的多重压抑和不信任之外，还有一层潜在的新的集体出发。


This would require, of course, less cynical political elites who can transcend their petty ambitions and divisions for the sake of the country.	当然，这要求有更加坚定的政治精英，为了国家的命运牺牲自己的小野心和小异议。


The second lesson, even more obvious, is that reality cannot be changed with a simple public spectacle.	第二点更加明显，那就是现实不可能因为一场精彩的公共表演而改变。


France is not Imperial Rome, where panem et circenses made a fundamental difference.	法国不是罗马帝国，面包和游戏（panem et circenses）就能造成根本性的不同。


It is a weakened democracy mired in an economic and social crisis so deep that it verges on becoming an identity crisis.	法国是一个削弱了的民主国家，困于深刻的经济和社会危机，站在身份危机的边缘。


The proof was provided by a third traditional event on Bastille Day, between the morning’s military parade and the evening’s music and fireworks: President François Hollande’s speech to the nation, which took the form of an interview with two prominent journalists.	巴士底日的第三项传统节目提供了证明。 这个节目处于上午的军事游行和晚上的音乐和烟花之间：总统奥朗德发表全国演讲，今年的形式是由两名著名记者对他进行采访。


He, too, was in a reassuring mood.	奥朗德也是一副踌躇满志的样子。


According to Hollande, the economic upturn – la reprise – had just started, and hope was around the corner.	在奥朗德看来，经济好转——复苏（la reprise）——才刚刚开始，希望的曙光刚刚显现。


His tone and message had changed.	他的语调和说辞发生了改变。


He was no longer the “normal man” of his election campaign and tenure until now; instead, he tried to present himself, like his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, as a superhero.	他不再是竞选期间和就任至今的那个“普通人”； 相反，他试图让自己像他的前任萨科齐，成为超级英雄。


Of course, given his personality and low public-approval ratings, his address was the least convincing event of the day.	当然，从他的人格和低公共支持度看，他的演讲是巴士底日最无说服力的事件。


Who could have said with certainty that the economic upturn announced by Hollande was real rather than aspirational?	谁能拍着胸脯说奥朗德所宣布的经济好转是现实而不是愿望？


Beyond his message’s wishful thinking, the public’s reaction to the messenger was a mixture of disbelief and indifference.	除了奥朗德话中的一厢情愿，公众对奥朗德的反应时不信任和冷漠。


Seeing the behavior of friends, all French, listening with me to Hollande, I was reminded of another moment.	看着和我一起听奥朗德讲话的朋友（都是法国人）的行为，我想起了另一个时刻。


It was December 31, 1989, and I was in the Soviet Union.	那是1989年12月31日，当时我在苏联。


I had found myself in a restaurant in the old city of Suzdal, listening to President Mikhail Gorbachev’s “New Year wishes.”	我在苏兹达尔（Suzdal）老城的一家餐馆，听总统戈尔巴乔夫的“新年祝词”。


I was moved: The man who symbolized glasnost and perestroika, who had allowed the peaceful emancipation of most of Eastern and Central Europe, was speaking.	我感慨万千。 这个象征公开（glasnost）和改变（perestroika）、允许东欧和中欧和平演变的人正在讲话。


But I was alone in paying attention to him.	但我是唯一一个专心听他讲话的人。


The restaurant’s customers, like my French friends now, could not have cared less.	餐馆里的其他食客，就像现在我的法国朋友，对戈尔巴乔夫的讲话一点都不关心。


Their president had become background noise.	他们的总统变成了背景噪声。


Has Hollande become, in this sense, a French Gorbachev?	从这个角度讲，难道奥朗德成了法国的戈尔巴乔夫？


For the left and the Greens, he is close to being a traitor.	对左派和绿党来说，他近乎卖国贼。


These voters chose him a year ago not only because he was not Sarkozy, but because he incarnated the values of the true left, even if his centrist moderation seemed a bad omen.	这些选民一年前之所以选择他，不仅是因为他不是萨科齐，也是因为他是真左翼价值的化身，尽管他的中间道路温和立场并非吉兆。


Voters of the center or even the center-right are disappointed, too, by their president’s lack of charisma, if not sheer incompetence.	中间派选民甚至中右翼也感到失望，因为总统缺乏魅力（如果不是彻底无能的话）。


After a year of Hollande, France is witnessing a fundamental political revolution.	奥朗德上台一年后，法国正在发生根本性的政治革命。


During the half-century of the Fifth Republic, a bipartisan system of left and right has traditionally prevailed.	在第五共和国半个世纪的历史中，左派和右派的两党制已经成为了传统。


But now France is becoming a country dominated by a “tripartite system” of more or less equal strength: the left, the right, and the extreme right.	但如今法国正在变成由“三党制”主宰的国家，左派，右派和极右派或多或少地同样强大。


If France wants to capitalize on the positive emotions of Bastille Day, it needs much more responsible elites, ready to unite in the fight against unemployment and its causes (lack of competitiveness and labor-market rigidity) and consequences (the rise of populist, non-republican forces).	如果法国想利用巴士底日的积极情绪，就需要更负责的精英，准备着为了战胜失业及其原因（缺乏竞争力和劳动力市场僵化）和后果（民粹主义反共和势力崛起）而联合起来。


What Bastille Day revealed, even briefly and superficially, is that the potential to unite France exists.	巴士底日表明——尽管迹象既虚弱又肤浅——团结的法国的潜在力量是存在的。


But doing so requires more than shallow promises.	但这样做需要的不仅仅是流于表面的承诺。


A Kick-Off for Peace?	开启和平


Yerevan – Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent invitation to Turkish President Abdullah Gul to visit Yerevan to watch a football match together was historic.	埃里温--亚美尼亚总统萨尔基相最近邀请土耳其总统居尔访问埃里温一同观看足球赛，这是具有历史意义的事件。


Given the two countries’ long-strained relations, this visit would have been remarkable at any time.	鉴于两国关系长期僵持，这一访问在任何时候都是不同寻常的。


But coming as it does only one month after the alarming Russian-Georgian confrontation, it may offer real hope that tensions in the volatile Caucasus region can be eased.	但是这是在触目惊心的俄国和格鲁吉亚冲突仅仅一个月以后，因此，这次访问也许会给人们确实的希望，也就是高加索地区动荡不安紧张局势可以得到缓解。


Of course, ancient and difficult issues divide Armenia and Turkey.	当然，亚美尼亚和土耳其之间的恩怨由来已久，错综复杂。


But now is the moment for both countries to put the past aside in order to address their common security concerns.	但是现在两国应该摒弃前嫌，处理共同的安全关切。


In the new context set by the war in Georgia, the urgency of Turkey becoming a real bridge between the nations of the Caucasus is not lost on anyone.	格鲁吉亚战争带来了新的环境，因此，人们都清楚土耳其急于想要成为高加索地区国家之间真正的桥梁。


This expectation is an inevitable consequence of Turkey’s geography and history.	这一期望是土耳其的地理和历史所决定的。


Situated figuratively between modernity and tradition, secularism and Islam, and democracy and tyranny, Turkey also is an actual physical bridge between East and West.	土耳其被比喻成为介于现代和传统、世俗和伊斯兰以及民主和专制之间，而且它在地理上也是东西方之间的桥梁。


For the peoples of the Caucasus, Turkey marks our path to Europe.	对于高加索地区的人民而言，土耳其标志着我们通向欧洲的道路。


It is a NATO member, bordering the three Caucasus republics that have NATO Individual Partnership Action Programs.	土耳其是北约成员国，与三个高加索地区国家接壤，这三个国家都有北约单个伙伴行动计划。


It aspires to join the European Union, and would bring the EU to our three borders, even as we, too, aspire to join one day.	土耳其渴望加入欧盟并且将会把欧盟带到我们的三个边境。 甚至我们也渴望有朝一日加入欧盟。


Indeed, Turkey has never missed an opportunity to present itself as a regional broker.	确实，土耳其从来就没有错过机会成为地区调停人。


Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey proposed the Black Sea Economic Cooperation.	苏联解体后，它马上就提议建立黑海经济合作组织。


This year, as the American-led effort to mediate a Middle East peace settlement began to falter, Turkey took up the job of mediator in both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the conflict between Syria and Israel.	今年，当亚美尼亚主导的中东和平倡议告吹之际，土耳其担当了巴以冲突和叙以冲突之间的调停人。


Now, in the immediate wake of the Russia-Georgia crisis, Turkey’s leaders have stepped forward once again to take a leadership role in the Caucasus.	现在俄国和格鲁吉亚危机刚刚结束，土耳其领导人再次站出来在高加索地区发挥领导作用。


The world must fervently hope that the Turkish proposal for a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform is more serious and sustained than previous similar efforts.	全世界热切希望土耳其提出的高加索稳定和合作平台比以往的类似建议更为严肃认真和持久。


But, in order to succeed, Turkey must firmly pursue a pledge from all the region’s players to repudiate the use of force in settling their disputes.	但是，为了成功，土耳其必须紧紧寻求本地区所有国家的承诺，在解决争端中放弃使用武力。


If this pledge is adopted and respected, conflicts in the region will be viewed in a wholly different, more tolerant context, marking a historic breakthrough to peace.	如果这一承诺获得通过并且尊重，那么，人们就可以完全不同而且更为宽容的眼光来审视这一地区的各种冲突。 这将标志着朝向和平的历史性突破。


In fact, why not take the idea of such a pact one step further?	实际上，为何不把这一协议主张更推进一步呢？


We in this region can, and I believe should, call for a non-aligned Caucasus, free of security blocs and adversarial alliances.	我相信，本地区国家应该而且能够呼吁建立不结盟的高加索地区，没有安全结盟或者敌对联盟。


After all, security alliances and guarantees only create dividing lines, with their attendant security challenges.	毕竟，安全挑战伴随着这些安全联盟和保证，只会制造分歧。


Our countries and peoples have, throughout history, lived under a common umbrella for far longer than we have been divided.	我们的国家和人民在历史上一直生活在一个共同的结构之下，长于分裂的时间。


Today, we share a common vision of European integration, and it is in this broader context that our conflicts should be resolved.	今天，我们共有欧洲联合的愿景。 正是在这一更广大的背景之下我们的冲突才应该得以解决。


French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visits to Georgia and Russia proved that there is no substitute for Europe insofar as the Caucasus is concerned.	法国总统萨尔科奇和德国总理默克尔对格鲁吉亚和德国的访问证明，对于欧洲而言，高加索地区是不可替代的。


Only Europe can play the role of honest broker in the region’s atmosphere of suspicion and intolerance.	只有欧洲才能够在这一地区怀疑和没有宽容的气氛下发挥真正的调停人作用。


But, at the end of the day, we ourselves must be willing to work toward a region of peace and cooperation.	但是最终，我们自己必须愿意努力建立地区和平及合作。


The Caucasus is too small a space for closed borders and explosive conflicts.	高加索地区并不辽阔，难以容得边境封锁和爆炸性冲突。


Although some of those tensions appear purely bilateral, the Georgian-Russian conflict demonstrates that there is no such thing anymore in this globalized world, and certainly not in this interconnected region.	尽管某些紧张局势看似完全是双边的，但是格鲁吉亚和俄国冲突表明，在这一全球化的世界里以及这一相互关联的地区不会有什么双边紧张局势了。


In fact, real peace in the Caucasus requires two key strategic transformations.	实际上，高加索地区的真正和平需要实现两个关键性的战略转变。


One is a lesson from history: Russia’s strategic interests here cannot be ignored.	第一是吸取历史教训。


To believe and behave otherwise would lead to regional chaos.	俄国在这一地区的战略利益不得忽视，否则将会导致地区混乱。


The other lesson is that Turkey and Armenia cannot remain adversaries forever.	第二个教训是土耳其和亚美尼亚不能永远为敌。


There must be normalization in our relations in order for the Caucasus to coalesce into a functional region.	两国关系必须正常化才能让高加索联合成为一个可以运作的地区。


Ironically, both Russia and the United States recognize that this is in their interest.	具有讽刺意味的是，美俄两国都承认这符合它们的利益。


The Russians view normal relations between Turkey and Armenia as a way to minimize Georgia’s strategic role in the region.	俄国认为，土耳其和亚美尼亚关系正常化可以把格鲁吉亚在该地区的战略作用降低到最小程度。


The US views an opening to Turkey as a way to decrease Armenia’s real and imagined reliance on Russia.	美国认为，向土耳其开放可以减少亚美尼亚对俄国实际和想象中的依赖。


Beyond the emotional impact of President Gul’s visit to Yerevan, real improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations requires opening the two countries’ closed border – the last in Europe.	居尔总统访问埃里温除了具有情感上的影响之外，土耳其和亚美尼亚两国关系得到实际改善要求开放两国封闭的边界。 这是欧洲范围内最后封闭的边界。


Or, for a start, the existing railroad link between the two countries could be made operational.	或者作为开始，两国之间现有的铁路连接应当投入运行。


If this does not happen within the coming weeks and months, then Turkey will have demonstrated that all this was just a show.	如果这一点在今后几周或几个月内无法实现，那么，土耳其就会表明这一切都不过是演戏罢了。


President Gul’s visit does mark a watershed – either as a failure to make history, or as the beginning of a new era.	居尔总统的访问的确具有分水岭的意义，而这一分水岭要么是无法创造历史，要么是新时代的开始。


Truth and Consequences	真相与后果


NEW YORK – The recent re-election of Colombia’s president, Juan Manuel Santos, brings hope to a country seeking to end a half-century of conflict.	纽约——不久前哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯竞选连任为结束该国半个世纪的冲突带来了希望。


But, as with so many peace processes, finding a balance between creating a stable accord and acknowledging the terrible injustices that occurred during the conflict can be difficult to achieve.	但是像其他众多和平进程一样，在签署稳定协议和承认冲突中发生的可怕的不公正之间找到平衡或许很难做到。


Many countries and communities, from Nepal to Northern Ireland, have grappled with legacies of ethnic, ideological, or religious division and violence, often with limited success.	从尼泊尔到北爱尔兰的很多国家和团体一直在设法解决民族、意识形态、宗教分裂和暴力领域的遗留问题，但成功的先例却少之又少。


This is frequently the case because the mechanisms established to cope with post-conflict reconciliation, truth, and justice, have proved inadequate.	归根结底是因为事实已经证明处理冲突后和解、真相和正义的机制远远不够。


In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) has made important contributions to truth seeking.	在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那，前南问题国际刑事法庭（ICTY）为揭露真相做出了重要贡献。


But victims complain that its procedures are slow and abstruse; and many Bosnian Serbs are convinced that the tribunal is selective and politically motivated.	但受害者抱怨其程序迟缓晦涩； 很多波黑塞族相信法庭是有选择性和政治动机的。


An agreement between Nepal’s government and Maoist guerrillas to establish a truth commission and investigate the “disappeared” was delayed for seven years.	尼泊尔政府和毛派游击队之间成立真相委员会调查“失踪人员”的协议被推迟了七年之久。


When legislators finally enacted the enabling legislation in May 2013, victims were dismayed to discover that the commission would be allowed to recommend amnesties for crimes against humanity, in contravention of international principles and United Nations guidelines.	当立法者终于在2013年5月颁布授权法案时，受害者惊惶地发现该委员会居然有权建议赦免反人类罪，这悍然违反了国际原则和联合国准则。


In Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement, justly acclaimed for staunching the bloodshed and starting reconciliation, has – to the great frustration of victims – run into political resistance over one integral element of the peace process: the establishment of mechanisms to clarify past crimes.	北爱尔兰终止流血并启动和解的耶稣受难日协定理应受到赞誉，但令受害者沮丧的是，和平进程的一个组成部分——建立调查过去罪行的机制——遭遇的政治阻力非常之强。


Peace negotiators understandably fear that criminal accountability for past crimes will threaten their side’s leaders and supporters.	和平谈判代表担心追究过去罪行的刑事责任会威胁本方领导人和支持者的安全是有道理的。


Many have wrongly assumed – based on a misinterpretation of the South African experience – that truth commissions provide a “soft” alternative to justice.	很多人基于对南非经验的误解认为真相委员会比法律制裁更加“柔和”。


As a result, they have willingly incorporated these mechanisms into peace agreements (conveniently ignoring the fact that the victims are forced to choose between seeking justice and learning the truth).	他们因此很愿意把上述机制载入和平协定（由此正中下怀地忽略了受害者被迫要在正义和真相间做出选择）。


Predictably, as truth commissions have become established components of transitional justice, former fighters have become increasingly worried that their reputations and political credibility could be on the line should past crimes ever come to light.	可以想见，随着真相委员会成为过渡正义的组成部分，曾经的武装份子越来越担心曝光过去的罪行会影响他们的声誉和政治可信度。


Seeking the truth can be unsettling and painful for anyone, but it comes with serious consequences for those with reason to fear justice.	了解真相对任何人来讲都伴随着不安和痛苦，但却会为那些有理由害怕制裁的人带来严重的后果。


Indeed, conflict mediation and transitional justice rely on truth commissions as a fundamental building block of peace not because such commissions provide impunity for the worst crimes; on the contrary, they reinforce comprehensive rights-based policies and access to justice.	事实上，真相委员会作为冲突调解和过渡司法的和平基础并不是因为其对最恶劣的犯罪行为免于惩罚； 恰恰相反，它们落实了以权利为基础的全面的法律和政策。


As a recent symposium, organized by the Kofi Annan Foundation and the International Center for Transitional Justice, concluded, truth commissions contribute most to peace by reasserting the rule of law, recognizing victims, and supporting institutional reform.	不久前由科菲·安南基金会和国际过渡时期司法中心举办的研讨会得出结论，真相委员会通过恢复法治、承认受害者权利和支持机构改革而对和平贡献最大。


But, in order to succeed, these commissions must be effective, independent, and legitimate.	但真相委员会成功的前提是高效、独立、合法。


Half-measures will not do.	仅靠权宜之计不可能实现目标。


Truth commissions therefore should never be established as “box-ticking” exercises to assuage local public opinion or the international community, as witnessed in Nepal.	因此永远也不要像尼泊尔那样让真相委员会沦为缓和当地或国际社会公众舆论的象征性机构。


Even when broad mandates and functions are established with the best of intentions, truth commissions are often deprived of the necessary resources, leading to further frustration and disillusion.	即使划定广泛的任务和职能范围完全出于好意，但真相委员会却往往得不到必要的资源，导致民众进一步信心受挫、理想幻灭。


Moreover, a commission should not be led or staffed by individuals of questionable integrity, thereby undermining the legitimacy of the process.	此外，委员会不应默许品格有问题的人领导或参与，否则可能对程序的合法性构成威胁。


Above all, truth commissions must be adapted to a country’s particular circumstances.	总之，真相委员会必须与国家的具体情况相适应。


As we have seen in Bosnia, Colombia, Nepal, Northern Ireland, and elsewhere, the nature of conflicts and how they are resolved differ widely; so should their respective commissions.	我们已经在波斯尼亚、哥伦比亚、尼泊尔、北爱尔兰和其他国家看到冲突的性质和解决的方法有很大不同； 因此各国委员会应当本着因地制宜的原则。


A “one-size-fits-all” solution ends up fitting no one.	“一刀切”的解决方案不适合任何国家。


It is vital that the details of each case of post-conflict transitional justice are understood and implemented.	理解并落实每宗过渡期司法个案的细节非常重要。


It is all too easy for political leaders to ignore victims or suppress the truth in their quest for a peace deal.	在试图签署和平协定时忽视受害者或隐瞒真相是政治领导人最容易犯的错误。


But recognizing victims’ rights is an indispensable condition for lasting peace.	但实现持久和平不可缺少的条件是承认受害者的权利。


Human suffering and victims’ dignity are too powerful to be erased by others’ political pacts.	任何人的政治协定都不能以罔顾人类苦难和受害者尊严为代价。


Eventually, the past demands its due: justice is not just an ideal; it is an investment in a better future.	最后，我们必须总结过去的经验教训：正义不仅是种理想； 也是投资于更好的未来。


Alan Greenspan on Trial	审判格林斯潘


The release of Alan Greenspan’s ghostwritten memoirs The Age of Turbulence has elicited charges that he was not such a great central banker after all.	阿兰•格林斯潘由他人捉刀的回忆录《动荡岁月》出版以来，引发了认为他不是一位出色的央行行长的指责。


Stan Collender of National Journal sees the fingerprints of the White House on these attacks: Greenspan is harshly critical of George W. Bush’s administration, after all, and to attack the credibility of Republican ex-policymakers who are critical of Bush is standard counterpunching for it.	National Journal 的Stan Collender在这些攻击当中发现了白宫的影子：毕竟格林斯潘是布什政府的严厉批评者，而对一个对布什持批评态度的共和党前政策制定者的公信力发动攻击是不折不扣的报复手段。


But what is one to make of the criticisms of Greenspan’s tenure at the Federal Reserve?	但对格林斯潘执掌美联储的生涯横加指责又有什么道理呢？


The indictment contains four counts: that Greenspan wrongly cheered the growth of non-standard adjustable-rate mortgages, which fueled the housing bubble; that he wrongly endorsed Bush’s tax cuts; that he should have reined in the stock market bubble of the 1990’s; and that he should have done the same with the real estate bubble of the 2000’s.	这种指责包括四个要点：格林斯潘错误地鼓励了非标准、可变利率按揭贷款的增长，而这就为房产泡沫推波助澜； 他错误地执行了布什的减税政策；


To the first two counts, Greenspan now pleads guilty.	对于前两项罪名，格林斯潘供认不讳。


He says that he did not understand how the growth of non-standard mortgages had lured borrowers and investors into bearing dangerous risks.	他说他不明白为什么非标准按揭贷款的增长会诱使借款人和投资人不顾风险趋之若鹜。


He was, he now says, focusing on how fixed-rate mortgages are relatively bad deals for borrowers in times of low inflation, which was a mistake.	现在他说当时错误地关注了为什么固定利率按揭贷款在低通胀时期对借款人而言是不合理的。


Greenspan also pleads guilty to a mistake in early 2001.	格林斯潘还对2001年初的错误认罪。


He thought that he was giving balanced testimony to Congress on government budget issues.	他以为自己就政府预算问题在国会所作的证词是合适的。


He testified that it is important to run surpluses to pay down the debt, but that surpluses must not be so large that the government winds up owning American industry.	他作证说利用盈余偿还债务是重要的。 但财政盈余的规模不能大到使政府最终掌控美国的工业。


He also testified that tax cuts are better than spending increases to keep surpluses from growing too large, but that uncertainty is enormous, so that any tax cuts should be canceled if they threatened to bring us back to an age of deficits.	他还作证说减税比提高支出更能将盈余控制在一定的规模，但同时它也有相当的不确定性，因此任何有可能使我们重回财政赤字时代的减税政策都应该取消。


Robert Rubin and Kent Conrad warned him that the press would not interpret his testimony as being balanced, and that Congress would interpret it as an excuse to abandon fiscal discipline.	罗伯特•鲁宾 和 肯特•康拉德都警告他说新闻界不会认为他的证词是合适的，且国会也会将其理解为一种放弃财政纪律的借口。


They were right.	事情果然被他们言中了。


Greenspan also pleads guilty to misunderstanding the character of the Bush administration.	格林斯潘还承认误解了布什政府的特点。


He thought that his old reality-based friends from the Ford administration were back in power.	他还以为是自己在福特政府的注重现实的老朋友又重新掌权了。


He thought that he – and Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill – could win the quiet “inside game” for sensible policy without resorting to an “outside game” that would make his reappointment in 2004 unlikely.	他以为他—和财政部长保罗•奥尼尔—能够通过兵不血刃的“内部博弈”赢得理智的政策而不用诉诸可能会使他2004年连任失败的“外部博弈”。


He was wrong.	他错了。


But how serious are these policy-political crimes to which Greenspan now pleads guilty?	但这些现在让格林斯潘供认不讳的政策—政治罪行究竟有多严重呢？


In my view, they are misdemeanors.	在我看来，他们只是小过错。


Against them you have to set what former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers calls Greenspan’s “golden glove” performance at avoiding and minimizing recessions during his years at the Fed.	你必须把它们放在被前财长拉里•萨默斯称为格林斯潘的“金手套”表现（即在其执掌美联储的岁月里规避及遏制经济衰退）的背景上来衡量。


The “felonies” of which Greenspan stands accused are the other two charges: that he should have done more to stop the stock market bubble of the late 1990’s, and that he should have done more to stop the housing bubble of the early 2000’s.	对于格林斯潘的两项“重罪”指控是：他本应该更努力地制止1990年代的股市泡沫和本世纪初的房地产泡沫。


Here, Greenspan holds his ground, and pleads not guilty.	而在这两点上，格林斯潘坚定地为自己进行无罪申辩。


The only way, he says, for the Fed to have kept stock prices in reasonable equilibrium ranges in the late 1990’s would have been to raise interest rates so high that they hit the real economy on the head with a brick.	他说，对美联储而言在1990年代末将股价控制在一个合理的平衡区间的唯一办法就是把利率加高到对经济当头一棒的水平。


Interest rates high enough to curb stock market speculation would also have curbed construction and other forms of investment, raised unemployment, and sent the economy into recession.	利率高到足够遏止股市的投机行为，也就会遏制建设和其他形式的投资、提高失业率并使经济陷入衰退。


To cause a significant current evil in order to avoid a possible future danger when our knowledge is limited and our judgments uncertain is, Greenspan believes, unwise.	格林斯潘认为为了规避未来的危险而制造残酷现实的策略在我们所知有限且判断不明的情况下是不明智的。


In this, he is following a tradition of caution that extends from Edmund Burke to John Maynard Keynes.	在这一点上他所遵循的是从伯克到凯恩斯的一贯审慎。


Greenspan mounts a similar defense concerning the housing bubble.	格林斯潘对有关房地产泡沫的指控进行了类似的辩护。


High construction employment has been good for American workers in the past half-decade – a period that has not produced much good for them.	建筑业的高就业率在过去五年以来对美国的工人而言是有利的—这一时期总体上并未给他们带来多收好处。


Higher interest rates to reduce the housing boom seem, even in retrospect, ill advised if the cost is mass unemployment.	用高利率来给过热的房地产市场降温，如果其代价是大规模的失业，那么即便现在回头看来也是不可取的。


And Greenspan eschews paternalism: he would not assume the role of a regulator telling people that they cannot buy a house even though a lender is willing to finance it.	并且格林斯潘还避免家长式的作风：他不想扮演一个告诉人们即便贷方愿意融资也不要买房的监管者角色。


But Greenspan would have served the country and the world better if he had been somewhat more paternalist in slowing the growth of non-standard adjustable-rate mortgages.	但格林斯潘如果在减缓非标准可变利率按揭贷款的增长方面多一点家长式的作风，那么这对美国和世界本应该更好。


He would have served the country and the world better had he been less of a loyal Republican working the inside game of trying to convince Bush’s political advisors that good policy was important, and more of a nonpartisan steward of America’s long-term fiscal stability.	如果他不是那么忠诚的一个共和党人，致力于说服布什的政治顾问们相信良好政策的重要性的内部博弈，而更愿意做一个美国长期稳定财政的非党派伺服者，那么美国和世界也本应该更美好。


Of course, such a Greenspan would never have been re-appointed.	当然，这样的格林斯潘是不会获得连任的。


All in all, Greenspan served the United States and the world well through his stewardship of monetary policy, especially by what he did not do: trying to stop stock and housing speculation by halting the economy in its tracks.	总而言之，格林斯潘在执掌货币政策时对美国和世界还是尽职尽责的，特别是他的有所不为：即试图通过拖慢经济发展来制止股市和房市的投机。


A Lasting Poison	幽灵不散


NEW YORK – Next year will mark the twentieth anniversary of the collapse of communism in Europe.	纽约-明年将迎来共产主义在欧洲垮台20周年。


Liberated from the complexity of knowing too much about the cruel past, the young people of Eastern Europe’s post-communist generation seem uninterested in what their parents and grandparents endured.	不再需要了解过多残酷过去的东欧后共产主义的年轻一代似乎对他们的父辈和祖辈所承受的一切毫无兴趣。


Yet the recent revelation of the Czech writer Milan Kundera’s presumed complicity in the face of Stalinism is but the latest of the long half-life of a toxic past.	然而最近披露捷克作家昆德拉可能曾在斯大林主义时代参与共谋的消息只不过是漫长的痛苦过去最新暴露的一个事例。


Other examples come to mind: the accusations of collaboration with the secret police raised against Lech Walesa, Romania’s public controversies surrounding Mircea Eliade’s fascist past, and the attacks on the alleged “Jewish monopoly of suffering” which equate the Holocaust with the Soviet Gulag.	我还想到了其他类似的例子：瓦文萨被指责曾与秘密警察勾结，罗马尼亚的公众激烈争论米尔恰·伊利亚德曾为法西斯效力的过去，还有对所谓“犹太人承受了所有痛苦”的观点的攻击几乎等同于对苏联劳改营内发生的大屠杀的言论的攻击。


Friedrich Nietzsche said that if you look in the eye of the Devil for too long, you risk becoming a devil yourself.	尼采曾说过如果你盯着恶魔的眼睛时间太久，你自己也可能成为恶魔。


A Bolshevik anticommunism, similar in its dogmatism to communism itself, has from time to time run riot in parts of Eastern Europe.	布尔什维克的反共产主义，与对共产主义本身的教条主义相似，在东欧的各个地区一再地肆虐。


In country after country, that Manichean mindset, with its oversimplifications and manipulations, was merely re-fashioned to serve the new people in power.	在一个接一个的国家，这种要么过于简单化要么进行操纵的二元论心态只不过是重新粉饰来为掌权的新一代服务而已。


Opportunism has had its share in this, of course.	当然在这其中也有机会主义的成分。


In 1945, when the Red Army occupied Romania, the Communist Party had no more than 1,000 members; in 1989, it had almost four million.	当红军于1945年占领罗马尼亚时，共产党的党员还不满1000人； 但是在1989年，这一数字达到了将近400万。


One day after Nicolae Ceausescu’s execution, most of these people suddenly became fierce anticommunists and victims of the system they had served for decades.	在处决了齐奥塞斯库后，这些人中的大部分突然变成了激烈的反共产主义者以及他们曾服务了几十年的那个体制的受害者。


Residual traces of totalitarian thinking can also be found in the hostility to former dissidents like Adam Michnik or Václav Havel, both of whom argued that the new democracies should not exploit resentments or seek revenge, as the totalitarian state did, but instead build a new national consensus to structure and empower a genuine civil society.	极权主义思维的残留痕迹依然可以在对亚当·米利尼克或瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔等前持不同政见者的敌意上看到，他们两人都主张新的民主政府不应该像极权主义国家那样制造怨恨或寻求报复，而是应该努力使整个国家一致投入到建设真正的文明社会中来。


Former generals of the secret police and members of the Communist	秘密警察的前任将军以及共产主义党国精英的成员，毫发无损地生活在他们舒适的别墅里过着自由自在的退休生活，在看到今天出于一时的政治目的而进行的政治迫害和对旧档案的操纵时一定会感到非常高兴。


But the case of Kundera appears different – though no less disturbing.	但是昆德拉的这件事似乎有所不同，尽管同样令人不安。


In 1950, Kundera, then a 20-year-old Communist, reportedly denounced to the criminal police as a Western spy a man he had never met – a friend of his friend’s girlfriend.	在1950年，当时还只是一个20岁的共产党员的昆德拉被报道说向刑警告密，称一位他从未谋面的人是一个西方间谍，那个人是他朋友的女朋友的一位朋友。


The man was later brutally interrogated in a former Gestapo torture facility and spent 14 years in prison.	那个人后来在前盖世太保的刑讯室里遭到了残忍的审问，后来被关押了14年。


Kundera’s name was contained in the investigating officer’s report, which was authenticated after a respected historian discovered it in a dusty Prague archive.	昆德拉的名字出现在了调查官员的报告中，一位受人敬重的历史学家在翻阅了尘封在布拉格的档案后对此予以了证实。


The reclusive Kundera, who immigrated to Paris in 1975, has declared that “it never happened.”	1975年移民到巴黎、现在过着隐居生活的昆德拉宣称“这件事从未发生过”。


Moreover, Czechoslovakia’s fearsome secret police, who had every interest in silencing or compromising the famous dissident writer, never used the incident to blackmail or expose him.	此外，捷克斯洛伐克可怕的秘密警察，他们曾采取各种手段是著名的持不同政见的作家闭嘴或者妥协，却从未利用这一事件来讹诈或揭露昆德拉。


Until more information is forthcoming, both from Kundera and from the authorities, the case will not be solved “beyond reasonable doubt.”	在昆德拉本人和政府当局提供更多的信息之前，这件事不可能使人们不“产生合理的怀疑”。


But	但是如果


As far as we know, Kundera never was an informer before or after this incident, and we cannot ignore that he later freed himself from the compulsory totalitarian happiness that communism propagated.	据我们所知，昆德拉在这起事件之前或之后从未做过告密者，并且我们不能忘记的是他后来从共产主义所散布的强制的极权主义幸福中逃离了出来。


Indeed, his case also serves as a reminder that the early 1950’s was the most brutal period of “proletarian dictatorship” in Eastern Europe – a period of great enthusiasm and terrible fear that poisoned the minds and souls of devoted believers, fierce opponents, and apathetic bystanders alike.	事实上，他的这件事还让人想起了二十世纪五十年代初是东欧“无产阶级专政”最最残酷的时期，这一时期巨大的热情和可怕的恐惧毒害了虔诚的信仰者、激烈的反对派以及麻木不仁的旁观者的思想和灵魂。


Moreover, Kundera’s case is hardly unique.	此外，昆德拉事件远远不是独此一例。


In 2006, the Nobel Prize-winning German author Günter Grass’s disclosed that, 60 years earlier, he was, as a teenager, a member of the Waffen-SS.	2006年，诺贝尔奖获得者德国作家君特·格拉斯被揭露在60年前，当他还是一个十几岁的孩子的时候，曾是武装党卫队的成员。


Similarly, a few years ago, the world was shocked to learn that famous Italian writer Ignazio Silone had, in his youth, collaborated with the fascist police.	同样地，在几年以前，世界震惊地发现著名的意大利作家纳齐奥·西隆尼在年青的时候曾与法西斯警察勾结。


Daily life under totalitarianism, be it communist or fascist, was routinely based on a deep duplicity whose effects are longstanding.	每天生活在极权统治下，不管是共产主义还是法西斯统治，常常都会陷于深深的双重性中，而这种影响将会是非常深远的。


I don’t agree with those who say we should not be interested in the dark episodes in the life of a great writer.	我不同意那些认为我们不应该对一位伟大作家在黑暗时期的生活感兴趣的说法。


Why not?	为什么不呢？


We should be interested not for prosecutorial purposes, but in order to gain a more profound understanding of a bloody, demagogical, and tyrannical Utopia – and of human weakness and vulnerability. We may even consider it a rewarding testament to an artist’s ability to overcome his past mistakes and still produce priceless work.	我们之所以感兴趣不是为了揭发他，而是为了对一个血腥、蛊惑民心和专制的乌托邦以及人的弱点和脆弱性有更深的理解。 我们甚至可以认为这是对一位艺术家战胜他过去所犯的错误然后依旧推出宝贵作品的能力的有回报的验证。


But can we justifiably defend morally compromised artists and intellectuals on the basis of their work’s merit, yet condemn ordinary people for often less grave offenses?	但是我们是否应该因为他们作品的伟大而无可非议地为那些在道义上妥协的艺术家和知识分子辩解，然而却因为没那么严重的错误而谴责普通的人呢？


An egregious example of this was the way followers of Romanian philosopher Constantin Noica defended his support for the fascist Iron Guard and his later collaboration with the Communists, while at the same time condemning even a generic cleaning woman for mopping the floors in the offices of the secret police.	在这方面一个突出的例子是罗马尼亚哲学家康斯坦丁·诺恰卡的追随者为他支持法西斯铁卫团以及后来与共产党勾结进行辩解，然而与此同时却对甚至只是在秘密警察的办公室拖地板的普通清洁女工大加指责。


Shouldn’t that cleaner’s drudgery to support her family, children, and her own survival be taken equally into account?	那位清洁工为了她的家庭、孩子以及她自己的生存而去做苦工难道不应该同样考虑进去吗？


Life under totalitarianism was an extreme situation that requires us to apply special, nuanced rules to all the captives of that ordeal.	极权主义统治下的生活是一种极端的状况，它要求我们对 所有 深受其折磨的受害者都适用特殊的、有细微差别的规则。


In order to understand that epoch, we have to know and carefully judge often ambiguous and overwhelming circumstances, never simplifying a multilayered daily reality for the sake of current political goals.	为了理解这一时代，我们必须了解和慎重地判断常常是模糊并且压倒一切的环境，千万不要为了当前的政治目的而把多层面的每天现实的生活简单化。


If nothing else, in order to forgive, we have to know what we are forgiving.	不为别的，哪怕只是为了原谅，我们也必须知道我们原谅的什么。


In Eastern Europe today, old and young alike stand to benefit from that lesson.	在今天的东欧，年长和年青的人都从那个教训中受益。


Moses wandered with his people in the desert for 40 years, until they had rid themselves of the poisonous slave mentality.	摩西和他的百姓曾在沙漠里徘徊了40年，直到他们去除了他们自己有害的奴隶心态。


India’s Prohibition Hypocrisy	印度的禁令伪善


NEW DELHI – Last month, 18 people in the Gopalganj district of India’s Bihar state died after consuming illicit alcohol, highlighting – once again – the peculiar relationship between morality and tragedy in India.	新德里—上个月，18位印度比哈尔邦戈帕尔甘杰（Gopalganj）区的人民在饮用假酒后死亡，此事再次突显印度奇怪的道德与悲剧之间的关系。


The victims were poisoned because this April, in a fit of moralism, Bihar adopted a draconian law prohibiting the sale, possession, and consumption of alcohol.	受害者中毒的原因是今年4月比哈尔邦出于道德考虑实施了严苛的法律禁止酒精的销售、拥有和消费。


It is far from the first such ban that has ended badly.	这绝非印度第一宗造成严重后果的禁令。


In a country where the national hero is the saintly Mahatma Gandhi, who considered alcohol an unmitigated evil, drinking has always carried a whiff of disrepute.	在圣雄甘地被视为民族英雄的印度，饮酒一直被视为恶习。 甘地本人认为酒精是十足的恶魔。


India’s constitution, in its non-enforceable Directive Principles, urges Indians to work toward prohibition, and the government does not serve alcohol even at state banquets and official receptions.	印度宪法以不具强制力的指导原则敦促印度人民厉行禁止，政府在国宴和公务接待中也不提供酒精饮料。


Four out of 29 Indian states (Bihar, Gujarat, Manipur, and Nagaland) and one union territory (Lakshadweep or the Laccadive Islands) are currently attempting to enforce total prohibition.	印度29个邦中的四个（比哈尔、古吉拉特、曼尼普尔和那加兰）以及一个直辖区（拉克沙威或拉克代夫群岛）目前都在尝试强制性禁酒令。


But maintaining a sweeping prohibition policy has long proved difficult in India.	但厉行禁止政策在印度向来困难重重。


In Manipur in 2002, the 1991 ban was lifted in five hill districts, where alcohol consumption is a centuries-old local tradition.	2002年，曼普尔邦的1991年禁令在五个有着数百年饮酒风俗的山区被取消。


Lakshadweep makes an exception for an uninhabited island, where a tourist resort is allowed to operate a bar.	拉克沙威的禁酒令也对其中一个岛屿豁免，一处度假区允许经营酒吧。


When I was a child, what was then Bombay excused anyone with a doctor’s note confirming alcoholism.	在我小时候的孟买，如果你被医生判定为醉酒，就可以免于刑罚。


(Well-heeled executives tripped over themselves to be labeled alcoholics.)	（上层人士竞相给自己贴上酗酒者的标签。 ）


The state that best illustrates the appeal and the pitfalls of such moralism is Kerala, which announced in 2014 that it was implementing a partial ban on the sale of alcohol, with the goal of achieving total prohibition in ten years.	最能体现这种道德主义的利弊的邦要数喀拉拉，2014年，喀拉拉邦宣布对酒精销售实施局部禁令，并计划在十年后全民禁酒。


It has been backsliding ever since.	此后该政策日益减弱。


A coastal state, Kerala has long been viewed as a tourist paradise – a reputation no doubt kept afloat on a sea of easily available libations.	喀拉拉邦地处沿海地区，一直是旅游胜地——这一盛名当然建立在想喝就喝的基础上。


Before the ban, Kerala held a somewhat dubious distinction: India’s highest per capita consumption of spirits.	禁令实施前，喀拉拉邦保持着一项可疑的记录：印度最高人均酒精消费量。


But in India, where prohibition is popular among many segments of the electorate, politicians find it particularly difficult to resist the self-righteous urge to improve their fellow citizens.	但在印度，禁令在许多选民细分群体中稀松平常，政客要抵制道貌岸然地敦促改善同胞境况的做法是十分困难的。


So Kerala’s government introduced the ban.	因此，克拉拉邦政府实施了禁令。


And, at first, many approved.	一开始，许多人都赞成。


The influential Christian churches applauded the move, as did the Christian-affiliated political parties.	影响力巨大的基督教会赞赏该政策，受基督教会支持的政党亦然。


Kerala’s Muslim leadership, including the then-ruling coalition’s ally, the Indian Union Muslim League, was equally vocal in its support.	喀拉拉邦的穆斯林领导层，包括时任执政联盟成员印度联合穆斯林同盟（Indian Union Muslim League）也是大力支持。


Working-class women, tired of watching their laborer husbands blow their monthly wages on booze, also welcomed the decision, as did traditionalists, Gandhians, and other moralists, of which India has an abundance.	工人阶级妇女早已对劳工丈夫们将每个月的工资浪费在喝酒上怨声载道，她们也欢迎这一决定，传统论者、甘地派和其他道德主义者也是如此——印度这样的人有很多。


No public figure of any consequence in Kerala stood up to oppose the decision.	在喀拉拉邦，每有一位有影响力的公众人物站出来反对这一决定。


Any politician who might have been inclined to do so knew that they would be instantly tarred as a votary of evil alcohol, an agent of the “liquor mafia,” a bar-loving enemy of good, wholesome Gandhian values.	可能有这样的打算的政客都知道，他们立刻会被批判为万恶的酒精爱好者、“液体黑手党”代理人、喜欢泡吧的甘地主义公序良俗的敌人。


But there were good reasons to oppose the ban – reasons that had nothing to do with religion, morality, or alcoholism.	但有很好的理由应该反对该禁令——这些理由与宗教、道德或酗酒无关。


Excise duties on liquor account for 22% of the state revenues that sustain generous welfare programs in Kerala, which boasts the best social development indicators in India.	酒精税占喀拉拉邦收入的22%，是维持其慷慨的福利政策的重要支柱，而喀拉拉邦的福利政策被夸赞为印度最佳社会发展指标。


Another 26% of state revenues come from tourism, which would surely also take a hit.	另有26%的邦收入来自旅游业，而旅游业必然会因为禁酒令而遭受重创。


Furthermore, much of Kerala’s economic viability depends on dynamic knowledge and services sectors.	此外，喀拉拉邦的大部分经济活力以来活跃的知识和服务界。


Attracting talent and investment from abroad would become much more difficult if prohibition hampered the state’s quality of life.	如果禁酒令影响到喀拉拉邦的生活质量，吸引海外人才和投资将变得十分困难。


(IT professionals in Bangalore, in the neighboring state Karnataka, flock to that city’s bars and pubs after long hours at work.)	（毗邻的卡纳塔克邦的班加罗尔的IT人才都喜欢在结束了一天漫长的工作后去酒吧小酌一番。 ）


Kerala’s leaders should have known that their state could not afford to do without widely available, heavily taxed liquor.	喀拉拉领导人应该知道，如果不让被课以重税的酒精畅通地流通，本邦收入将大受影响。


But they began to implement the policy anyway.	但他们还是实施了禁酒令。


Almost immediately, 20,000 bar workers and distillery employees lost their jobs, in a state that already struggles with high unemployment.	20,000酒吧和酿酒厂员工几乎在一夜之间失去了工作，而当时的喀拉拉邦已经因为高失业而步履维艰。


Tourism operators were stung by cancelations, as would-be visitors decided to visit Sri Lanka or Goa instead; 50% of existing convention bookings were canceled.	旅游业经营者因为取消行程而遭遇重创，本打算来到喀拉拉邦的游客纷纷决定改去斯里兰卡或果阿； 50%的会展预定被取消。


And IT companies contemplating moving to clean, green, tech-friendly Kerala expressed concern about the prohibition policy.	打算迁往干净、绿色、技术友好的喀拉拉邦的IT公司纷纷表示对禁酒政策十分担心。


It was not long before Kerala’s government decided that prohibition would apply only to hard alcohol, and closed bars could reopen as wine and beer parlors.	不久，喀拉拉邦政府决定禁酒令只对烈酒有效，已经关门的酒吧可以重新开张，销售葡萄酒和啤酒。


But that was not enough to save the government in June’s state election, which produced a new communist administration that, advocating education about the evils of alcohol instead of a ban, has promised to review the prohibition policy.	但这不足以拯救政府在6月邦选举中的命运，在选举中上台的共产党政府支持酒精是魔鬼的教育，而不实施禁酒令，承诺重新评估禁酒政策。


So Kerala is no longer hurtling toward disaster in the name of saving people from themselves.	于是，喀拉拉邦不再打着从人民自己手中拯救人民的旗号走向灾难了。


But it never should have gone as far as it did, given experience with prohibition in other states, where falling revenues and rising crime (including smuggling, tax evasion, and illicit liquor production) forced its revocation.	但它根本不必走到收入下降、犯罪（包括走私、逃税和生产假酒）增加这一步才被迫废除禁令——其他邦的禁令都是可供借鉴的教训。


Four states – Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Mizoram, and Tamil Nadu – have repealed prohibition policies.	有四个邦——安德拉、哈里亚纳、米佐拉姆和泰米尔纳德——都已经废除了禁令政策。


To be sure, not everyone loses out from a prohibition policy.	诚然，并非所有人都因为禁令政策而受损。


When Kerala first announced its plans, neighboring Tamil Nadu’s alcoholic beverages corporation, TASMAC, promptly declared its intention to open a string of new outlets along the states’ border, to cater to the demands of Keralite consumers.	喀拉拉邦第一次宣布禁酒令计划时，毗邻的泰米尔纳德邦酒精饮料生产商TASMAC立刻宣布准备在两邦交界处开设一批新店铺，以迎合喀拉拉邦消费者的需求。


In other words, excise duties from Kerala would now fill Tamil Nadu’s coffers.	换句话说，喀拉拉邦的酒税现在落入了泰米尔拉德邦的金库中。


Banning alcohol in India has been economically devastating.	在印度，禁酒一直是经济上的灾难。


Yet politicians continue to use the promise of prohibition to win votes.	但政客仍然在用禁令承诺赢得选票。


When elections were called in Tamil Nadu early this year, its chief minister declared herself in favor of prohibition.	今年年初，泰米尔拉德邦举行选举的时候，其首席部长宣布自己支持禁令。


After the election was won, however, all such talk discreetly subsided.	但是，赢得选举后这些话被小心地回避了。


My late father liked to say: “India is not only the world’s largest democracy; we are also the world’s largest hypocrisy.”	先父常言：“印度不但是世界上最大的民主国家； 我们也是世界上最大的伪善者。


I suppose we can drink to that.	”我觉得我们可以把这句话一饮而尽。


Leaders for a Leaderless World	领导缺乏领袖的世界


PARIS – The newspaper commentaries that I write often have a dark perspective.	巴黎——我写的新闻评论往往从阴暗的角度出发。


Sadly, this one will be no different.	可悲的是这一篇也不会例外。


But there are two pieces of good news that break through the gloom.	但却有两则好消息能够冲破黑暗。


First, the global significance of US President Barack Obama’s reelection is clear: the world has escaped a disaster for international cooperation.	首先，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马再度当选发出了明确的信号：世界已经躲过了一场国际合作劫难。


The US was on the verge of sinking into isolationist nationalism, reinforced, perhaps, by xenophobic sentiment.	美国已经处在孤立民族主义的边缘，仇外情绪或许进一步强化了这种现状。


Obama’s victory, despite America’s economic travails, clears the way for cooperation based on a sympathetic ear to others and on negotiations in which the US does not deny the legitimacy of a global public interest (as it has done, unfortunately, on the issue of climate change).	尽管美国的经济劫难依然没有过去，但奥巴马的获胜却用充满同情的聆听和美国对全球公共利益合法性的认可开辟了合作的光明大道（美国在气候变化问题上就遗憾地对全球公共利益采取视而不见的态度）。


The other piece of good news concerns France, and thus is more “local,” but is crucially important nonetheless.	另一条好消息因为关乎法国而更有“地方性”，但其重要性却毫不逊色。


Like everywhere else in the developed world, the global crisis has hit the French economy hard, with output stagnating, unemployment rising, job insecurity mounting, government debt soaring, and the stock market at risk of crashing.	像发达世界其他国家一样，金融危机严重打击了法国经济，导致生产停滞、失业率升高、就业不确定性上升、政府债务飙升，股市也面临崩溃的危险。


Manufacturing production has plummeted, the trade balance has deteriorated sharply, and corporate bankruptcies are increasingly frequent.	制造业生产大幅下降、贸易收支急剧恶化，越来越多的企业濒临破产。


For six months, France has had new leadership – a new president, government, and parliament.	六个月前，法国有了全新领导班子——新总统、新政府和新议会。


But President François Hollande and his government were strangely inactive after the elections, limiting themselves to reducing the impact of unfair budget cuts and taxation reforms implemented by the previous government of Nicolas Sarkozy.	但总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德及其政府在当选后不可思议地行动迟缓，除了消解前任萨科齐政府所实施的不公平预算削减及税收改革产生的影响之外几乎别无所长。


Many began to wonder whether Hollande was aware of the scope of the crisis that the recent downturn might trigger.	许多人开始怀疑奥朗德是否对不久前经济衰退可能引发的危机规模有着清醒的认识。


In recent weeks, however, the government has introduced energetic and courageous measures to boost the competitiveness of French industries, including a huge €20 billion ($26 billion) tax break for businesses, to be financed by a hike in value-added tax, which means that the general public will pay for it.	不过近几周政府已经积极勇敢地推进政策来提高法国企业的竞争力，包括面向企业推出200亿欧元（合260亿美元）的巨额减税计划，减税所需资金由大幅提高增值税提供，也就是说普通市民将为此付出代价。


The VAT increase will hurt, but there was no other way.	提高增值税会带来切肤之痛，但除此之外别无他法。


Awareness, boldness, and comprehensive policymaking have come as a relief to French investors, and have left them better positioned to face the crisis.	清醒的头脑及大胆全面的决策令法国的投资者感到安心，让他们在面对危机时有更多办法。


The French government’s new push to confront the country’s economic plight matters not only to France, but to Europe and the world as well.	法国政府应对国内经济困境的全新举措对法国、欧洲和世界都至关重要。


After all, France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy, and the fifth-largest economy in the world.	毕竟法国是欧元区排名第二、世界排名第五的经济大国。


And yet, despite these bright spots, international cooperation on issues ranging from regional conflicts to the protection of global public goods remains weak.	尽管有这些亮点，在从地区冲突到保护全球公众利益等领域的国际合作依然非常薄弱。


Antarctica, the only land in the world that is administered directly by the international community, is a recent case in point.	南极洲这块世界范围内唯一由国际社会直接管理的大陆就是最新的例证。


The Antarctic Treaty, negotiated in 1959, prohibits any and all military activities in Antarctica and forbids the establishment of any borders.	1959年谈判达成的南极条约禁止在南极洲从事一切军事活动或划定一切边界。


Three agreements – the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals (1972), the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR, 1980), and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (PEP, 1991), which prohibits any activity relating to mineral resources – have since been added to the treaty.	《南极海豹保护公约》（1972年）、《南极海洋生物资源养护公约》（南极海洋生物资源保护委员会，1980年）以及禁止一切采矿活动的《南极条约环境保护议定书》（PEP，1991年）等三项公约陆续增补进南极条约的内容。


The Antarctic Treaty System includes three annual meetings: one deals with the supervision and management of the Treaty itself, and the other two concern the CCAMLR and the PEP.	南极条约体系包含三次年会：其中一次涉及条约本身的监督和管理，另两次则与南极海洋生物资源养护委员会和《南极条约环境保护议定书》相关。


In recent years, proposals have been considered that would establish marine reserves around the continent and end the risk of growing scarcity, or the outright disappearance, of a variety of species of fish and cetaceans.	近年来在大陆周围设立海洋保护区的建议已经被纳入考虑，目的是防止各种鱼及鲸类数量日益减少甚至彻底灭绝。


The principle that international cooperation is required to protect fishery resources, which are dwindling everywhere, was adopted at the 2011 CCAMLR meeting.	2011年召开的南极海洋生物资源养护委员会会议确立了需要进行国际合作保护日益减少的渔业资源的原则。


At the 2012 CCAMLR meeting, which concluded at the beginning of November in Hobart, Australia, three proposals (from the US, New Zealand, and France/Australia) to establish marine reserves in three different areas were discussed.	在2012年11月初结束的澳大利亚霍巴特南极海洋生物资源养护委员会会议上，与会者探讨了由美国、新西兰和法国/澳大利亚提出的在三个不同地区设立海洋保护区的三项提案。


They were compatible and would reinforce one another.	上述提案不仅彼此之间没有冲突，而且还可以相互强化。


Yet the discussion foundered, and no decision was taken.	可是讨论最终没能达成决议。


Russia and Ukraine – and, to a lesser extent, China – blocked efforts to reach an agreement.	俄罗斯和乌克兰、其次还有中国妨碍了协议的达成。


This failure reflects the same dynamic at work in the breakdown of global climate-change conferences in recent years: a few cynical countries, whose cooperation is needed to save the planet, fuel the madness of those bent on destroying it.	此次失败反映出近年来导致全球气候变化会议搁浅的同样一个原因：少数几个玩世不恭的国家，我们需要他们的合作才能拯救地球，但他们却助长了那些决意毁灭地球者的疯狂。


That will not change until a new consciousness emerges worldwide to persuade states to support binding international law.	除非说服各国政府支持有约束力的国际法的全新意识在世界各国扎根，否则这种状况很难发生变化。


The US has now reelected a president who understands this.	美国目前连任的总统理解这一点的重要。


France has a president who understands the need for bold, far-reaching actions as well.	法国也有一位理解必需采取大胆、意义深远行动的总统。


Their active leadership, and that of others, is needed now more than ever to turn the tide.	我们现在比任何时候都需要他们及其他人的积极领导，才能帮助我们力挽狂澜、实现目标。


Assured Mutual Dependence	确保相互依赖


LONDON – During the Cold War, the certainty of “mutually assured destruction” steered the nuclear arms race away from catastrophe: a would-be attacker would face immediate retaliation, inevitably ending in both sides’ annihilation.	伦敦—冷战期间，“确保互相摧毁”的确定性让核武竞赛远离灾难���后果：人若犯我，我必犯人，双方都难逃灭绝的命运。


Today, a very different race is taking place – a race for the earth’s vital resources, and it threatens to undermine stability in key regions of the world.	如今，一场完全不同的竞赛正在展开——地球关键资源竞赛，这场竞赛可能会动摇世界关键地区的稳定性。


The growing dependence of countries on one another’s food, water, and energy requires that the global response to sustainability is taken to the highest political level.	各国日益依赖他国的粮食、水和能源，这要求我们把可持续性的全球响应列为最高政治等级。


Unlike the nuclear arms race of the twentieth century, the resource-security agenda is not linear.	与二十世纪的核武竞赛不同，资源安全日程不是线性的。


Mutually assured destruction was explicitly acknowledged during the Cold War in statements from both sides.	确保互相摧毁白纸黑字地写在冷战期间对立双方的声明中。


In the race for resources that defines the twenty-first century, no actor is directly or indirectly threatening other players to curtail food or energy exports, but all bear the systemic risks.	在成为二十一世纪特征的资源竞赛中，没有哪个行动方直接或间接地威胁其他行动方减少粮食和能源出口，但所有人都承担着系统性风险。


Countries have become unavoidably interdependent, and climate change, water stress, and the loss of ecological resilience all increase the volatility of this mutual dependence.	各国都不可避免地变得互相依赖，气候变化、水压力和生态恢复力的下降都增加了这一互相依赖的波动性。


In a world of limited and scarce resources, countries and companies will be forced to make decisions that affect one another’s security.	世界的资源是有限而稀缺的，国家和公司将被迫做出互相影响安全的决定。


In order to navigate this interdependence, the Earth Security Index 2014, produced by the Earth Security Initiative, shows countries’ combined vulnerabilities that might increase the risk exposure of governments and companies, unless more strategic approaches and sustainable investments are put in place.	为了引导这一互相依赖性，地球安全计划（Earth Security Initiative，ESI）发布的地球安全指数2014（Earth Security Index 2014）显示各国脆弱度加起来可能导致政府和公司风险敞口增加，除非我们有更具战略眼光的方针和可持续投资。


The ESI identifies four areas of mutual dependence that will likely shape global security in the coming decades:	ESI认为，四个互相依赖领域可能会影响未来数十年的全球安全：


·         Choke points.	·         梗阻点。


Countries’ growing demand for energy, water, food, and land cannot be satisfied without incurring tradeoffs among limited available resources.	各国的能源、水、粮食和土地需求无法在不进行有限可得资源之间的权衡的情况下得到满足。


Choke points are reached when the available resources are insufficient to satisfy demand.	当可得资源不足以满足需求时，便达到了梗阻点。


In China and India, for example, this means that in certain regions there may not be enough water in the short term to run coal-fired thermal power stations and irrigate large fields to grow crops.	比如，在中国和印度，这意味着一些地区无法在短期获得足够的水运行燃煤热电厂和灌溉大片土地种植庄稼。


In China, 60% of planned coal-fired power plants will be built in water-stressed regions.	在中国，60%的规划燃煤电厂将建于水资源紧缺地区。


·         Food.	·         粮食。


The growing dependence of many countries on food, water, and energy imports creates new opportunities for trade and investment, but it also exposes countries to critical vulnerabilities.	许多国家对粮食、水和能源进口依赖日益增加为贸易和投资创造了新的机会，但也让国家暴露出关键弱点。


Australia, for example, is a large coal exporter but imports most of its refined fuels and holds just three days of fuel stockpiles.	比如，澳大利亚是煤炭出口大国，但精炼燃料大部分依靠进口，燃料储备只够用三天。


The challenges of mutual dependence are particularly acute with respect to food.	互相依赖的挑战在粮食方面尤其突出。


As the ESI shows, some countries – including Egypt, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates – are heavily dependent on cereal imports from a small number of suppliers.	ESI指出，一些国家——包括埃及、秘鲁和阿联酋——严重依赖少数供应国的谷物进口。


Moreover, grain suppliers’ exposure to extreme weather may compromise their ability to sustain supplies, with knock-on effects for import-dependent countries.	此外，谷物供应国又容易受极端天气的冲击，这可能制约它们的持续供应能力，从而让进口依赖国连带遭殃。


In 2010, for example, Russia imposed an export ban on wheat, following a severe drought.	比如，2010年，俄罗斯因为严重干旱实施了小麦出口禁令。


The resulting food-price increases are believed to have played a role in Egypt’s revolution.	据信由此造成的粮食价格上涨在埃及革命中扮演了重要角色。


·         Teleconnections.	·         遥相关。


Anticipating systemic ecological risks will be increasingly important for sectors such as reinsurance and infrastructure investments.	预测系统性生态风险将对再保险和基础设施投资等部门越来越重要。


“Teleconnections” refer to weather events that are related to one another over large geographic distances.	“遥相关”是指地理距离很远的天气事件彼此之间互相联系。


They are well known to science but not properly discussed by the industries, investors, and governments whose security depends on environmental stability.	科学界对此早已熟知，但在安全系于环境稳定性的产业界、投资者和政府中间还没有得到应有的讨论。


For example, tropical rainforests play a crucial function in maintaining stable weather and rainfall, acting as a “pump” that helps moisture travel between different regions.	比如，热带雨林在保持稳定天气和降雨方面起着关键作用，起着帮助不同地区间的水传播的“泵”的作用。


Deforestation can thus have a destabilizing effect on weather patterns, amplifying the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts.	因此，毁林对天气路径具有破坏性影响，加剧了洪水和干旱等极端事件的频率和严重程度。


The resulting liabilities to key industries and the financial sector are clear.	由此产生的关键产业和金融部门的责任是明确的。


In Brazil, for example, deforestation in Amazonia has slowed significantly over the last five years, but Brazil has already lost more than 11 million hectares of rainforest; its exposure to extreme weather has also steadily risen, with floods causing $4.7 billion in losses in 2011 alone.	比如，在巴西，亚马逊流域的森林采伐速度在过去五年中明显减缓，但巴西已经失去了1,100多万公顷的热带雨林，巴西极端天气也在稳步上升，光是在2011年，洪水就造成了47亿美元的损失。


·         Land productivity bottlenecks: Agriculture systems are reaching resource limits, and persistent governance gaps compromise their ability to ensure food security, dignified livelihoods, and ecological stewardship.	·         土地生产率瓶颈：农业系统正在达到资源极限，持续的治理缺口制约了它们确保粮食安全、生活尊严和生态支持力的能力。


Companies, investors, governments, and communities confront a series of critical barriers to increasing the food availability that the world needs: Local populations’ insecure land ownership; receding water tables, owing to unsustainable extraction rates; inefficient use of pollution-causing inputs like fertilizers and pesticides; the loss of vital ecosystems, affecting the resilience of food production; and certain areas’ inability to cope with extreme weather.	在提高全世界所急需的粮食可获得性的问题上公司、投资者、政府和社会面临着一系列关键障碍：本地人口土地所有权得不到保障； 不可持续的开采速度导致潜水面下降；


In some regions of India, for example, these issues are playing out in tandem.	比如，在印度的一些地区，这些问题都存在。


Insecure land tenure acts as a disincentive for smallholder farmers to commit to productivity-enhancing investments; water extraction rates are depleting aquifers as a result of permissive policies; and food security remains out of reach for millions of people, despite rapid economic growth in urban areas.	得不到保障的土地所有权导致小农无法进行改进生产率的投资； 放任的政策导致水开采率过快，含水层流失严重；


Countries and companies will increasingly need to invest in sustainable land in order to hedge their resource risks.	尽管农村地区经济增长迅速，仍有数百万人得不到粮食安全。 国家和公司将越来越需要投资于可持续土地以规避这些资源风险。


In 2015, global frameworks are due to be agreed to address climate change, coordinate responses to natural disasters, and guide the world’s development agenda.	2015年将形成一致的全球框架以纠正气候变化、协调自然灾害反应、指导全球发展日程。


Some of these multilateral processes – in particular, those seeking an ambitious global climate agreement – appear to be moving in slow motion and against the grain of geopolitical interests.	一些多边过程——特别是那些雄心勃勃的全球气候协议——进展缓慢，不符合地缘政治利益。


In the past, the case for high-level nuclear governance was urgent and clear, but required processes for creating a common understanding of risks and opportunities across national borders.	在过去，高级别核治理的需求是紧迫而明确的，但需要创造对风险和机遇的超越国界的共同理解的过程。


Successful multilateral responses, like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, continue to be supported by more flexible global platforms, such as the Nuclear Threat Initiative, based on relationships and trust established outside the box of formal multilateralism.	核不扩散条约等成功的多边反应机制仍然受到核威胁倡议（Nuclear Threat Initiative）等更灵活的全球平台的支持，其基础是建立在正式多边主义之外的关系和信任。


This year, as world leaders discuss the next generation of sustainability, development, and climate frameworks, they will need to put their security and mutual dependence at the heart of the responses.	今年，世界领导人将讨论下一代可持续性、发展和气候框架，在此过程中，他们需要将安全和互相依赖置于应对措施的核心。


Here, too, the world will need to create informal platforms that supplement traditional multilateralism.	在这方面，世界还需要建立非正式平台以补充传统多边主义。


In particular, the outdated divisions between rich and poor countries and their responsibilities must be revised.	特别是，富国和穷国过时两分法和他们的责任必须重新定义。


As new powers like China, Brazil, India, and other G-20 economies bid to reform global governance systems, their vulnerability to resource security must invigorate these processes.	中国、巴西、印度和等新的大国和其他G-20经济体提出了全球治理体系改革，它们在资源安全方面的脆弱性应该对这些过程起到刺激作用。


Only then will the world be on track to improve the security of all.	惟其如此，世界才会走向改善所有人的安全的道路。


After Aleppo	阿勒颇之后


DENVER – The end of the fighting in Aleppo will not end the Syrian war, despite the countrywide ceasefire that has just been agreed.	丹佛—阿拉破战事的结束不会结束叙利亚战争，尽管已经达成全国停火协议。


Nor will it ease the suffering of the city’s population, much of which has been displaced.	阿勒颇市民的苦难也得不到缓解——其中许多人已经流离失所。 阿勒颇围城赢得了什么呢？


What the Aleppo siege will do is clinch Syria’s place in history as, to borrow former US Secretary of State Warren Christopher’s phrase, another “problem from hell.”	赢得了叙利亚的历史地位——用美国前国务卿沃伦·克里斯托弗（Warren Christopher）的话说，叙利亚是又一个“来自地狱的问题”。


And, like other hellish recent regional conflicts, such as those in Bosnia (to which Christopher was referring) and Rwanda, future historians will emphasize a crucial feature of the Syria conflict: the spectacular diplomatic failures that enabled it to escalate.	和其他地狱般的近期地区冲突，如波斯尼亚（克里斯托弗的话就是针对波斯尼亚说的）和卢旺达一样，未来历史学家眼中的叙利亚冲突的一个关键特征是外交方面的重大失败导致冲突全面升级。


Good diplomacy begins with a keen analysis of interests, both of the country in question and of relevant external powers.	好的外交必须从敏锐的利益分析开始，分析对象既包括问题所在国家，也包括相关外部力量。


It demands a careful assessment of how the pursuit of those interests will affect the regional and international order.	必须仔细评估追求各种利益如何影响地区和国际秩序。


And it seeks ways to strengthen the capacity of regional or world powers to help solve problems.	必须找出办法增强地区或世界力量帮助解决问题的能力。


Throughout this process, universally shared and consistently reinforced values – both critical in getting disparate actors to work together to resolve problems and challenges – must provide a moral compass and common ground for action.	在整个过程中，必须通过不断得到加强的形成普遍共识的价值观——这既是让众多行动方和衷共济的关键，也是解决问题和挑战的关键——提供道德指南和共同行动基础。


The key is to ensure that values do not become weapons, deployed by one actor against another in a way that exacerbates tensions and undermines solutions.	至关重要的是确保价值观不会变成某个行动方针对另一个行动方、加剧冲突、破坏解决方案的武器。


Consider the 1990s Bosnian War – the result of unfinished business from the breakup of the Austrian and Ottoman empires and the creation of nation-states earlier in the twentieth century.	以20世纪90年代的波斯尼亚战争为例——这场战争是20世纪初奥地利和奥斯曼帝国分裂、民族国家建立的历史遗留问题的演化结果。


The conflict erupted in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, at a moment when one set of international organizing principles had collapsed and a new set had not yet been created.	这场冲突爆发于冷战刚刚结束时，正逢一套国际组织原则崩溃、新一套组织原则尚未建立起来的空隙。


Partly as a result of this, the conflict was characterized by large-scale civilian carnage and human-rights violations.	部分拜这一因素所赐，这场冲突引起了大规模杀戮平民和侵犯人权的局面。


But, as a test for the new world order, the Bosnian War ended up catalyzing change in the international community’s institutional structure (including the establishment of war crimes tribunals).	但是，作为新世界秩序的一次考验，波斯尼亚战争最终促使国际社会制度结构发生了改变（包括建立了战争罪法庭）。


Could the nascent post-Cold War system handle the inchoate problems of the former Soviet Union?	方兴未艾的冷战后体系能否处理前苏联解体后所爆发的第一批问题？


Could NATO take on new roles and missions?	北约能否担任新角色、完成新任务？


Could the West work with the new Russian Federation?	西方能否与新建立的俄罗斯联邦合作？


Could the transatlantic relationship weather the storm?	跨大西洋关系能否抵挡这场风暴？


The answer to all of these questions turned out to be yes.	所有这些问题的答案最后都是肯定的。


As a result, though the region continues to be beset by serious problems, the gates of hell have remained closed – as they have in Rwanda.	因此，尽管该地区一直受到严重问题的困扰，但地狱之门仍然没有打开——卢旺达也是如此。


And yet, just 20 years later, it seems that the world’s collective memory of how to cooperate has failed.	但是，仅仅过去了20年，世界关于合作的集体记忆就好像失效了。


To be sure, there was never a clear path to peace in Syria.	平心而论，叙利亚从未出现明晰的和平路径。


President Bashar al-Assad, whose forces now control all of Aleppo for the first time since 2012, is a brutal dictator who has waged war on his own people, including civilians, and has even used chemical weapons.	目前，叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的部队自2012年以来首次重新控制了阿勒颇全境。 而巴沙尔是一位野蛮的独裁者，他想自己的人民（包括平民）发动战争，甚至使用化学武器。


The temptation to seek regime change – a goal embraced by the United States and some European countries – was understandable.	叙利亚人民寻求颠覆政权——美国和一些欧洲国家支持这一目标——是可以理解的。


Yet, in a display of spectacularly incompetent diplomacy, the US set about pursuing that goal without any serious effort to marshal international support, or even to take stock of other opinions or interests.	但是，美国外交表现得非常无能，它似乎想在完全不组织国际支持、甚至不考虑其他选项或利益的情况下追求这一目标。 不要弄错了：有许多（常常互相冲突的）观点和利益。


And make no mistake: there are a lot of (often conflicting) opinions and interests.	毕竟，叙利亚是地中海的一个战略要点；


After all, Syria is strategically perched on the Mediterranean; shares borders with Israel, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq; and, like Iraq, has its own restive Kurdish minority.	与以色列、约旦、土耳其和伊拉克接壤； 并且与伊拉克一样，也存在桀骜难驯的库尔德少数民族。


It is not the kind of country to which international and regional powers would be indifferent.	这绝不是国际和地区力量能够忽视的国家。


In fact, when Western powers called for regime change, other actors – including Iran, Russia, and Shia interests in neighboring Lebanon – objected.	事实上，当西方力量要求政权更迭时，其他行动方——包括伊朗、俄罗斯和相邻的黎巴嫩的什叶派利益集团——表示反对。


Nonetheless, the US soldiered on with its own poorly formulated agenda, supplying weapons to virtually unknown combatants on the ground before properly vetting them.	尽管如此，美国一意孤行地推行自身相当拙劣的日程，在没有进行合理评估的情况下就为当地它几乎毫无所知的战斗力量提供武器。


That gave the Assad regime’s allies all the justification they needed to supply weapons of their own.	这给了阿萨德政权的盟友所需要的口实提供它们自身的武器。


Some argue that, if the US had just provided more weapons sooner, Assad would not have had time to galvanize support and hold onto power.	有人认为，如果美国更快地提供更多武器，阿萨德根本没有时间巩固支持、坚守权力。


But that neglects the strategic importance of Syria to so many external powers, as well as the fragmentation and unpredictability of the US-based combatants.	但这忽视了叙利亚对如此众多的外部力量的战略重要性，以及依靠美国的战斗力量的分散性和不可预测性。


America’s real mistake was failing to engage with all sides, including Assad and the Sunni opposition, which it deemed sectarian.	美国的真正错误是没有协调所有各方，包括阿萨德和它视为宗派力量的逊尼派反对派。


(During the Bosnian War, by contrast, the US talked to rump Yugoslavia’s ruler, Slobodan Milošević.)	（相反，在波斯尼亚战争期间，美国与南斯拉夫统治者米洛舍维奇谈判。


With that narrow-minded approach – reflected in the lack of any articulated vision for a post-war Syria – the US effectively handed the diplomatic reins over to Russia.	）美国的思维狭隘的方针——它没有描述任何战后叙利亚愿景就是明证——将外交主动权拱手让给了俄罗斯。


Now, the US is essentially playing the role of agitator, offering little more than displays of moral outrage and stale references to a stillborn Geneva process.	如今，美国实际上已经沦为“搅屎棍”，除了表示义愤和言必称早已流产的日内瓦进程的陈词滥调再也拿不出什么东西。


Reacting to the carnage in Aleppo, Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the United Nations, was reduced to demanding of Assad’s Russian ally, “Are you truly incapable of shame?”	对于阿勒颇大屠杀，美国驻联合国大使萨蔓莎·��威尔（Samantha Power）竟然卑微到质问阿萨德的俄罗斯盟友“你们真的没有羞耻感吗？


Meanwhile, the conflict rages on, with severe spillover effects on US allies like the European Union.	”与此同时，冲突仍在肆虐，并给欧盟的美国盟友造成严重的 溢出效应。


As for Russia, it, too, is pursuing a version of diplomacy that utterly lacks inclusiveness.	至于俄罗斯，它也在追求严重缺乏包容性的外交。


It is working with Turkey (a NATO member that seems increasingly lost at sea) to bring the Syrian opposition and representatives of the Assad government together in Kazakhstan for a new series of peace talks, facilitated by the ceasefire, of which Russia and Turkey are guarantors.	它与土耳其（在海上日渐式微的北约成员国）合作，让叙利亚反对派和阿萨德政府代表在哈萨克斯坦会晤讨论新的和平谈判，由俄罗斯和土耳其作保的停火协议便是一个促进因素。


Iran will be there.	伊朗也将出席。


But where are the Sunni Arab states?	但逊尼派阿拉伯国家呢？


More important, where is the US?	更重要的是，美国呢？


It is often observed that, every four years, the US does without a foreign policy.	人们常常观察到，每隔四年，美国就会迷失于外交政策。


This time, it seems to have gotten an early start.	这一回，迷失来的早了一些。


A Less-is-More Growth Strategy for Africa	非洲“少即多”的发展战略


REYKJAVIK – If African countries were to adopt only one policy to boost economic growth and improve macroeconomic stability, they should reduce the number of currencies in circulation across the continent as quickly as possible. Doing so would most likely encourage trade, as happened in Europe with the arrival of the euro, and could help contain inflation – which is always good for growth – by imposing international discipline on monetary policy.	雷克雅未克——


The African Union is now aiming at pooling all the continent’s currencies into a single currency by 2028.	如果非洲国家希望通过一种政策促进经济增长并增强宏观经济的稳定性，他们就应该考虑尽快减少非洲大陆上发行的货币种类。


In the meantime, several regional monetary unions are on the drawing board, in addition to the two monetary unions that already exist, one	这样做很可能促进贸易，就象在欧洲实行欧元货币制一样，而且这样做可以通过国际间的纪律约束货币政策，来抑制通货膨胀，抑制通货膨胀对经济总是有好处的。


The premier and oldest of these unions is composed of the fourteen countries that belong to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa and the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which both use the CFA franc.	非洲联盟制定目标，计划在2028年之前将非洲各国使用的货币统一为一种货币。


The second of these unions is composed of Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, and now Zimbabwe, all of which use the South African rand. Disregarding Zimbabwe, a recent and incomplete convert, the 18 countries of the two existing monetary unions have, as intended, benefited from lower inflation than much of the rest of Africa.	与此同时，除了已经存在的两个联盟外，一个是，另外一个是，非洲几个地区性的货币联盟已经就货币使用在进行规划。


To see why, consider Nigeria. Before independence, Nigeria’s legal tender was the British pound.	在这些联盟中，最主要、历史最长的由14个非洲国家组成，属于中非经济货币联合体和西非经济货币联盟，这两个组织使用的都是CFA法郎。


With the establishment of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 1959, the Nigerian pound was introduced. Back then, one Nigerian pound was equivalent to one British pound.	在联盟中位居第二的组织由莱索托、纳米比亚、斯威士兰和津巴布韦组成，使用南非兰盾。


This arrangement remained intact until 1973, when Nigeria adopted a new currency, the naira. The exchange rate remained unchanged: one naira was equivalent to one British pound.	如所预测的那样，除津巴布韦外，现有两个货币联盟的18个国家比其他非洲国家在降低通货膨胀率方面受益较多。


The naira was intended to bolster the country‘s independence by making it possible for the central bank to pursue its own monetary policy.	看一下尼日利亚。 在国家独立前，尼日利亚的法定货币是英镑。


It was also a matter of national pride.	1959年，尼日利亚中央银行成立，开始发行尼日利亚镑。


The thinking behind the new arrangement was that an independent and flexible monetary policy would serve the nation‘s interest better than a fixed exchange rate that tied the naira to the pound.	之前，尼日利亚镑和英镑的汇率是一比一。 这个汇率维持到1973年，这一年，尼日利亚采用一种新的货币纳拉，汇率仍不变，一纳拉兑一英镑。


But the naira’s introduction quickly put an end to parity with the British pound. Government expenditure exceeded federal revenue, despite rapidly rising foreign-exchange earnings from oil exports after 1970.	尼日利亚采用纳拉这种新货币，旨在通过中央银行制定自己的货币政策来增强国家的独立自主性，这关系到尼日利亚的民族自豪感。


The federal government’s budget deficits were financed through foreign and domestic borrowing, and by printing money, which led to inflation and depreciation of the new currency. Today, it costs 220 naira to buy one British pound, which implies 15% annual average depreciation since 1973.	尼政府所考虑的是，一个独立灵活的货币政策比将纳拉捆绑在英镑上的固定汇率政策，将能更好地为本国家的利益服务，


This depreciation would perhaps be justifiable had Nigeria managed to use easy money to narrow the gap between ordinary Nigerians’ standard of living and that of people living in Britain.	但是纳拉的发行迅速结束了与英镑的汇比关系。 尽管尼日利亚在1970年后通过石油出口获得了大量的外汇收入，政府支出还是超出了联邦收入。


But that did not happen.	尼日利亚联邦政府的预算赤字只能通过国外和国内借债来填补，而且尼政府还大量印制本国货币，这导致通货膨胀和新货币的贬值。


The purchasing power of national income per person in Nigeria is now 50% lower relative to Britain than in 1980.	今天，220个纳拉才能兑换一个英镑，这意味着，1973年依赖，纳拉的年均贬值率为15％。


In view of this experience, Nigeria now plans to abolish the naira in favor of joining a monetary union with four or five other West African countries (The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and perhaps Liberia).	如果尼日利亚政府通过使用缩小了本国普通人民和英国人民生活水平的差距，那么这种货币贬值也许可以说的过去，但情况并不是这样。


But that planned monetary union, until recently envisaged to be launched in 2009, has now been put on ice.	与1980年相比，尼日利亚国民人均收入的购买力相对于英国而言低了50％。


Why? The smallest countries show no signs of fear of being swamped by Nigeria, by far the most populous country in the group (accounting for 155 million of the six countries’ 200 million people), especially as the new West African Central Bank is to be located in Accra, the capital of Ghana (24 million).	鉴于上述情况，尼日利亚政府现在计划取消本国货币纳拉，而参加由4～5个西非国家（这些国家包括冈比亚、加纳、圭那、塞拉里昂，也许还包括利比里亚）组成的货币联盟。


Others, though, may fear the dilution of their sovereignty when the new Central Bank of the	但这个规划中的货币联盟，本打算在2009年成立，现在仍没有结果。


takes over some of the policymaking responsibilities of national central banks.	这是为什么？ 小国家们不惧怕被联盟内部人口最多的尼日利亚吞并（尼日利亚人口为1.


But that, of course, is the chief purpose of a monetary union.	55亿，而联盟六个国家的总人口为2亿），更何况西非中央银行的总部座落在加纳首都阿克拉（加纳人口为2400万）。 但有些国家担心新成立的西非货币联盟的中央银行会控制自己国家中央银行的货币政策，但这也正是成立联盟的主旨所在。


When the West African Monetary Zone finally is established, the number of currencies in Africa will equal about half the number of countries.	如果西非货币联盟最终得以成立，非洲大陆的货币将为非洲国家数量的一半。


And when the East African Community with its five members (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda) re-emerges as scheduled, the number of currencies will be reduced by another four.	如果东非地区联合体如期重新发挥功能，货币种类还将再减少4种。


The belief that sovereign national currencies, by enabling independent and flexible monetary policies, are the best way to foster economic and social development – the vision of Nigeria’s post-colonial leaders – is gradually falling by the wayside.	那种希望通过实行主权货币和独立灵活的货币政策、来促进国家经济和社会发展的想法正逐渐过时。


Efficiency dictates the use of fewer and larger currencies (and foreign investors, understandably wary of weak and volatile currencies, demand it).	效率���定货币种类的多少（这是外国投资者所要求的，能够理解他们对疲软多变货币的警惕）。


Indeed, the success of the European Union and of the euro since its launch in 1999 has made a strong impression in Africa.	事实上，欧盟和1999年发行的欧元的成功给非洲各国留下了深刻印象。 货币，引用温斯顿丘吉尔关于民主的一句话：保证其公正性的最好方法就是与人共享。


Alexander Hamilton’s Eurozone Tour	亚历山大·汉密尔顿的欧元区之旅


PRINCETON – Europe’s debt crisis has piqued Europeans’ interest in American precedents for federal finance.	普林斯顿—欧洲债务危机激发了欧洲人关于美国联邦财政经验的兴趣。


For many, Alexander Hamilton has become a contemporary hero.	对许多人来说，亚历山大·汉密尔顿称得上是一位当代英雄。


Perhaps one day his face should appear on the €10 banknote.	或许有朝一日他的头像会出现在10欧元的钞票上。


Specifically, for European states groaning under unbearable debt burdens, Hamilton’s negotiation in 1790 of the new federal government’s assumption of the states’ large debts looks like a tempting model.	具体而言，对于不堪债务重负的欧洲国家而言，汉密尔顿1790年就联邦政府关于各州大量债务开展的谈判是一个极具吸引力的模板。


Indeed, after Thomas Sargent won the Nobel Prize in Economics last year, he cited it as a precedent in his acceptance speech.	事实上，托马斯·萨金特（Thomas Sargent）去年获得诺贝尔奖之后，在获奖演说中援引了汉密尔顿的举措作为先例。


Hamilton argued – against James Madison and Thomas Jefferson – that the debts accumulated by the states during the War of Independence should be assumed by the federation.	汉密尔顿针对詹姆斯·麦迪逊和托马斯·杰斐逊的观点争锋相对地指出，各州在独立战争期间所积累的债务应该被认为是联邦债务。


There were two sides to his case, one practical, the other philosophical.	他的观点包括两个方面，一是实践方面，而是理论方面。


Initially, the most appealing argument for his plan was that it would provide greater security to creditors, and thus reduce interest rates, from the 6% at which the states financed their debt to 4%. Hamilton emphasized the importance of a commitment to sound finance as a prerequisite to public economy.	首先，汉密尔顿计划中最吸引人的角度在于它可以为债权人提供更大的安全性，从而降低了利率，将利率从各州融债时约定的6%降低到了4%。


“When the credit of a country is in any degree questionable,” he argued, “it never fails to give an extravagant premium upon all the loans it has occasion to make.”	汉密尔顿强调，作为公共经济的先决条件，健康财政的承诺是很重要的。


While that logic certainly appeals to Europeans today, Hamilton insisted on a stronger reason for pursuing sound finance than merely the pursuit of expediency.	汉密尔顿的逻辑对当今欧洲十分适用，但当初汉密尔顿之所以要追求健康财政，并不仅是为了便宜行事，而是有更深的理由。


There is, he maintained, “an intimate connection between public virtue and public happiness.”	他说，“公德和公共福祉之间具有紧密联系。


That virtue consisted in honoring commitments, and it would build solidarity in the new political community of the United States.	”公德在于信守承诺，能够为合众国营造团结的新政治氛围。


Indeed, public virtue made federal finance what he called “the powerful cement of our union.”	事实上，公德让联邦财政成为汉密尔顿口中的“我们的联邦的强力粘合剂”。


The condition for success in the American case was that the US raised its own revenue, with federally administered customs houses initially providing the bulk of its receipts.	美国能够成功的条件在于它能获得收入——美国拥有联邦管辖的海关，建国初期，财政收入的大头都来自关税。


The logic of a need for specific revenue applies also in modern Europe, where a reformed fiscal system might include common administration of value-added tax (with the additional benefit of eliminating a considerable amount of cross-border fraud).	这一逻辑——需要具体的收入流——同样适用于现代欧洲，改革后的财政体系可以包括一个共同的增值税机构（这样做还有额外的好处，比如消除数量巨大的跨国欺诈）。


In the American case, however, unity carried a price: a ceiling was imposed on Virginia’s exposure to the common debt.	但是，美国的统一不是没有代价的：弗吉尼亚州就有一个对共同债务敞口的最高上限。


Only this inducement to the most powerful state in the union persuaded Madison to drop his opposition to the proposal.	而正是以此为条件将最强大的州引入联邦才说服了麦迪逊不再反对汉密尔顿的方案。


That compromise (which also led to the US capital’s relocation to the District of Columbia, on the border of Virginia and Maryland) may serve as a precedent for limiting Germany’s liabilities if Eurobonds, or some other debt-mutualization scheme, are introduced.	这一妥协（美国首都最终坐落于弗吉尼亚和马里兰州交界处的哥伦比亚特区也是这一妥协决定的）可以作为在引入欧元债券或其他多边机制时限制德国责任的先例。


The US experiment in federalized finance was not immediately successful.	美国财政联邦化的实验并没有获得马上的成功。


Two important components of Hamilton’s financial architecture were not realized, or were realized imperfectly.	汉密尔顿财政结构中，有两个重要部分无法实现（或无法完美实现）。


He proposed a model of joint-stock banking on a national scale, which ran into immediate opposition (curiously, his proposal was much more influential in Canada).	他提出了在全国范围内建立合资银行业的方案，但立刻招来了反对（有趣的是，这一提案在加拿大产生了重大影响力）。


Second, opponents eventually blocked his proposal for a national central bank.	其次，反对派最终否决了他建立国家中央银行的方案。


The charter of the First Bank of the United States was allowed to lapse in 1811; a generation later, in 1836, President Andrew Jackson successfully opposed the charter of the Second Bank of the United States.	美国第一银行的执照到期日在1811年； 25年后，1836年，安德鲁·杰克逊总统成功地否决了美国第二银行的执照。


Nor did the Hamiltonian scheme of federal finance guarantee a peaceful commonwealth.	汉密尔顿的联邦财政担保机制也没有保证联邦的和平。


In fact, the fiscal union proved to be explosive rather than adhesive.	事实上，财政联盟与其说是内敛性的，还不如说是爆发性的。


As international capital markets developed in the early nineteenth century, state governments borrowed on a large scale, quickly turning them from creditors into debtors.	19世纪早期，随着国际资本市场的发展，州政府借贷规模很大，很快就从债权人变成了债务人。


A wave of state defaults followed in the late 1830’s.	接着，在19世纪30年代，爆发了一波州政府违约潮。


A generation later, in the 1860’s, the Civil War between northern and southern states resulted in large part from a dispute about the character of financial burdens –amp at least from the South’s perspective.	几十年后，在19世纪60年代，如何为财政负担定性的争论成为引发美国内战的一大原因，至少南方是这么认为的。


Abraham Lincoln’s original proposal to end the immoral practice of slavery by compensating slave owners for manumission was unacceptably expensive, so the Union, according to the slave-holding Confederacy, was determined to expropriate the South.	亚伯拉罕·林肯最初的建议——补偿奴隶主解放农奴的行为，从而终结不道德的奴隶制——在财政上根本无法承担，因此北方联邦——根据蓄奴联邦的说法——决定剥夺南方的蓄奴权。


The federal assumption of states’ debts by itself could not guarantee political order.	将各州债务算为联邦债务并不能保证政治秩序。


The Civil War revealed the centrality of a common foundation of morality to Hamilton’s approach to debt and public finance.	美国内战表明，对于汉密尔顿的债务和公共财政方法，道德才是共同基础的核心。


As a result, his approach foundered on the differences between the different states’ conception of morality.	因此，在各州道德观念不一的背景下，汉密尔顿的方法失败了。