The gangs then upheld classic Japanese virtues of manliness and loyalty – and paid for mistakes by slicing off one of their fingers in atonement.	那时的黑帮分子都尊崇日本传统刚强忠诚的价值观——一旦办事出错，他们都会砍下自己的一个指头谢罪。


But Japan’s long-floundering economy has eaten revenue from traditional activities that required muscle, such as gambling, prostitution, and loan-sharking.	但日本的长期经济不景使那些依靠暴力来维持的黑帮传统行业——赌博，色情和高利贷——收入逐渐减少。


For example, “land-sharking” – the practice of coercing landowners to sell their land and then flipping it for huge profits – is no longer as lucrative as it once was, because land prices have been flat for years.	类似“逼迁”——就是迫使原地产所有人变卖自己的土地，然后炒卖赚钱——这类行为已不像从前那样赚钱，因为地产价格已经死气沉沉好多年了。


To compensate, Yakuza groups plunged into financial fraud, stock manipulation, and cybercrime, giving rise to a new generation of gangster-nerds, more interested in business than blackmail.	为了补偿收入，黑帮开始介入金融欺诈，操纵股价或者网络犯罪，并借此培养新一代黑帮成员，而且也比敲诈更加刺激有趣。 以日本黑帮最大的派别“山口组”为例，该组织拥有大约3.


For instance, “Yamaguchi-Gumi,” the largest Yakuza organization in Japan, boasts roughly 36,000 members and associate members, constituting less than a half of the total Yakuza gangsters in Japan, and is estimated to haul in as much as ¥2 trillion ($21 billion) annually. The organization has hundreds of subsidiary organs across the country and nationwide networks.	6万成员，几乎占全国黑帮成员总人数的一半，每年收入高达2万亿日元（折合210亿美元），还拥有数百个附属组织和遍布全国的网络。


As with America’s Mafia, police zeal has imprisoned many Yakuza leaders.	正如美国对付黑手党那样，日本警方也成功令许多黑帮头子当啷入狱。


The sixth godfather of “Yamaguchi-Gumi” is now in prison until 2011.	而“山口组”的第六代教父现在也在狱中，2011年才刑满释放。


Once he is released, it is anticipated that he will direct a major drive to revitalize his organization through both its traditional and new illegal activities.	一旦此人重获���由，可以预见他会采取较大动作，试图通过传统或者新兴的犯罪活动来振兴整个组织。


Some analysts suspect that the Sumo circle has provided some of the best match tickets to Yakuza leaders, who, as matches were shown on television, sent signals to the godfather that they remain loyal to him.	有分析家怀疑相扑界会把一些最佳位置的门票送给黑帮头子，随着这些比赛在电视上转播，教父会意识到这些信号：相扑界还是向他效忠的。


So it is likely that next year will see a showdown between the police and the “Yamaguchi-Gumi.”	由此可见，明天又是警方和“山口组”刺刀见红的时候了。


The Sumo gambling scandal, indeed, may be a prelude to it.	而最近爆出的相扑界赌博丑闻，可能就是这场斗争的序幕。


The Sun Will Rise Again	太阳将照常升起


TOKYO – In Japan, memorial services for the dead are normally held 49 days after their passing.	东京——在日本，一般在逝去49天后召开逝者的追悼会。


The bereaved mourn throughout this period.	逝者的亲友在此期间为逝者服丧哀悼。


The number of victims of the earthquake and tsunami that assaulted the Tohoku region of northeast Japan has now reached around 30,000, if those who are still missing are included.	如果把仍然失踪的人计算在内，袭击日本东北地区的地震和海啸造成的死难人数现在已经上升到30，000人左右。


This was the largest natural disaster to strike Japan in its history, and the entire nation has been in mourning.	这是日本历史上规模最大的一次自然灾害，日本全国都沉浸在深深的悼念之中。


Throughout this period, television stations, in response to viewers’ feelings, have refrained from showing frivolous programs and gaudy commercials.	在49天的哀悼期内，电视台为照顾观众情绪停播了不严肃的节目和华丽的广告。


Many of the hanami events, for celebrating the annual eruption of cherry blossoms, a much-loved activity for us Japanese, have been canceled.	为我们日本人所钟爱的一年一度樱花盛放的赏花庆祝活动也已经被取消。


Music and sporting events, along with town gatherings, have also been canceled or postponed.	音乐体育活动和市民聚会同样被推迟或取消。


Bizarrely, the American rock singer Cyndi Lauper’s concerts were just about the only events that weren’t called off.	奇怪的是，美国摇滚歌手辛迪·劳博尔的演唱会或许是唯一一个没被取消的活动。


The strong bonds (kizuna) of the Japanese people create great solidarity during dark times such as these.	日本民众间的深厚情谊（Kizuna）在这样的黑暗时刻营造出空前的团结氛围。


One virtue of kizuna can be seen in people’s inability to enjoy themselves in their usual ways in the face of the loss of so many countrymen and the knowledge that 200,000 more are enduring harsh conditions in evacuation centers.	在这么多国人遭受损失和明知还有200，000多人在疏散中心过着艰苦生活的条件下，人们无法像平常那样去享受生活，这就是情谊的一种美德。


But there are concerns that these bonds of kizuna may also bind the Japanese economy, which must recover as soon as possible – not only for the benefit of the Japanese, but also because disruptions in Japan’s economy are hitting the rest of Asia, owing to the production chains of which Japan is an integral part.	但也有人担心这种情谊纽带可能束缚日本的经济，日本经济必须尽快恢复，这不但符合日本人的利益，也因为日本经济中断影响到了亚洲其他国家，因为日本是整条产业链上不可或缺的环节。


But today’s strong kizuna and mentality of mourning have led to sharply diminished consumption.	但今天这种深厚情谊和悼念心态已经导致消费急剧萎缩。


The tourism industry has been directly hit by people refraining from travel, and the abundant hot springs in the Tohoku region, normally popular with tourists and totally unaffected by the earthquake or tsunami, have become a victim of the disaster.	人们暂停出游直接打击了旅游业，平常深受游客喜爱的东北地区丰富的温泉资源虽然根本未受地震或海啸影响，但仍然沦为了这场灾难的牺牲品。


Similarly, the baseless rumor that all of Japan is soaked in radiation has caused tourism from abroad to plummet.	同样，日本全境浸泡在辐射中的毫无根据的传言已经导致外国游客数量急剧下降。


Meetings and parties in Tokyo have been canceled, and this has directly affected not only hotels and inns, but also the liquor industry and the food and beverage industry.	原定在东京召开的会议和派对遭到取消，这不仅直接影响到酒店和旅馆，同时也影响到酿酒和食品饮料业。


The restaurant industry, too, is being pushed to the wall.	餐饮业也被逼进了死胡同。


It is now no problem to get reservations at restaurants with three Michelin stars.	现在预定米其林三星评级的餐馆没有任何问题。


Despite the great efforts made to manage refrigeration amid blackouts caused by power shortages, customers are not turning out.	尽管费了很大气力在因电力短缺导致的停电期间成功地保护了冷藏食品，但上门的顾客却寥寥无几。


Likewise, customers who formed lines to buy up water and toilet paper immediately after the disaster are now slow to return to supermarkets.	同样，灾后立即排起长队抢购瓶装水和手纸的顾客此时却很少光顾超市。


And this tendency to shun all purchases except disaster-related goods, is not limited to east Japan. It is a nationwide trend.	这种除灾害相关商品外避免购买一切物品的倾向不仅局限在日本的东部，而是一种全国性的趋势。


This curtailed consumption, however, comes at a time when Japan’s economy is already weak.	但这样的消费紧缩出现在日本经济已经很不景气的时期。


Indeed, the Japanese economy, which has endured two decades of sluggishness, has been falling behind in the global economy even more since the shockwaves caused by Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008.	事实上，日本经济在经受了20年的发展停滞后，由于2008年雷曼兄弟垮台所导致的冲击波更远地落后于全球经济。


Now it has been struck by a combination of prolonged deflation and the shocks caused by the recent natural disasters.	日本经济现在更是经受着持续通缩和最近这次自然灾害的双重打击。


The end of April will mark 49 days since the earthquake and tsunami hit on March 11.	四月底将结束3月11日地震和海啸的49天悼念期。


The profound disruption of the economy will continue at least until that time.	灾难对经济的巨大破坏至少会持续到那时为止。


It took a year for consumption to recover after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, but the widespread damage did create widespread demand back then, and should do so again.	1995年阪神地震后消费花了一年的时间才逐渐恢复，但当时大面积的损坏的确创造了大面积的需求，这次也应该如此。


Enormous demand will be created for construction of temporary housing and, later, for the reconstruction of lost towns.	临时房屋建设会创造大量需求，随后还有损毁城镇的重建工作。


The estimated damage of ¥25 trillion is also the size of the potential reconstruction demand.	25万亿日元的估计损失也可以代表潜在的重建需求。


But Japan’s government needs to think big and creatively.	不过日本政府需要从大局着眼，进行创造性的思考。


If towns suffering from depopulation before they were destroyed are transformed in their reconstruction, they could mark the emergence of a new model for regional development that can decentralize Japan’s Tokyo-centric economy.	如果被毁坏前人口减少的城镇在重建时能够实现转型，可能会创造出新的地区发展模式，实现此前以东京为核心经济布局的分散化。


Farmland that had been worked by an aging population with no successors, and that was subdivided into blocs that were too small, has now become vacant, opening the way for much larger-scale farming.	此前由没有子嗣的老年人口耕种的农田被分割成极小的小块，现在空了出来，为扩大耕种规模开辟了道路。


Similarly, individually operated fishing businesses whose potential heirs ended up choosing other careers can now be reorganized and consolidated, thereby taking advantage of greater economies of scale.	同样，很多渔业经营者的潜在子嗣最终选择了其他职业，现在可以借此机会对他们手中的资源进行重组和整合，借此充分发挥规模经济优势。


Perhaps most importantly, the nuclear accident has shed a stark light on the need for safe, renewable energy, which had been shunned in the past.	也许最重要的是，核事故真正凸显了对安全可再生能源的需求，而过去人们一直对此采取逃避的态度。


The current government has plans to generate power using large-scale solar and wind power plants in the disaster-affected areas.	现政府制定了在受灾地区建设大规模太阳及风能电厂的发电计划。


But Japan’s economy has for too long been stuck in a ditch as a result of its being bound by over-regulation and a rigid adherence to precedent.	但是日本经济已经被过度监管和对传统的僵化执行束缚了太久。


So, if there is a ray of light to come from the horrors suffered by the people of the Tohoku region, it is that the Japanese understand that what they need most of all nowadays is clear leadership with a coherent and bold plan for rebuilding and renewing their country.	因此，如果说东北地区民众经历的这场灾难还有某种积极的因素，那就是让日本人认识到能拿出恢复重建国家连贯大胆计划的坚强有力的领导者是他们现在最迫切需要的。


Indeed, the only way truly to honor those who lost their lives is to create a new-model Japan from the tsunami’s wreckage, rather than simply restoring towns and their economies to their previous decadent conditions.	实际上，真正纪念死难者唯一的方法不是简单地把城镇及经济恢复到之前日渐萎缩的状态，而是从海啸的废墟上创造出日本新的发展模式。


The Sustainability Mindset	可持续性观念


MILAN – Markets and capitalist incentives have great strengths in promoting economic efficiency, growth, and innovation.	米兰—市场和资本主义激励在促进市场效率、增长和创新方面具有很大的优势。


And, as Ben Friedman of Harvard University argued persuasively in his 2006 book The Moral Consequences of Growth, economic growth is good for open and democratic societies.	哈佛大学的本·弗里德曼（Ben Friedman）在其2006年的著作《增长的道德后果》（The Moral Consequences of Growth）中令人信服地指出，经济增长对开放的民主社会来说是大好事。


But markets and capitalist incentives have clear weaknesses in ensuring stability, equity, and sustainability, which can adversely affect political and social cohesion.	但市场和资本主义激励在保证稳定、平等和可持续性方面有着显而易见的劣势，而这会对政治和社会凝聚力造成不利影响。


Obviously, abandoning market-capitalist systems, and implicitly growth, is not really an option.	显然，抛弃市场-资本主义体系——因而也抛弃了增长——绝非现实选择。


Collectively, we have little choice but to try to adapt the system to changing technological and global conditions in order to achieve stability, equity (in terms of opportunity and outcomes alike), and sustainability.	总的来说，我们别无选择，只能尽力调整市场-资本主义体系，使之适应变化的技术和全球条件，从而获得稳定、平等（就机会和结果等方面而言）和可持续性。


Of these three imperatives, sustainability may be the most complex and challenging.	在这三个目标中，可持续性大概是最复杂、最具挑战性的一个。


For many people, sustainability is associated with finite natural resources and the environment.	对许多人来说，可持续性伴随着有限的自然资源和环境。


The global economy will probably triple in size in the next quarter-century, largely owing to growth in developing countries as they catch up to developed-country incomes and adopt similar consumption patterns.	在未来25年中，全球经济规模可能会翻三倍，主要的增长动力来自发展中国家，它们将赶超发达国家的收入水平，并采用和发达国家相似的消费模式。


Thus, there is a well-founded fear that the planet’s natural resources (broadly defined) and recuperative capacities will not withstand the pressure.	因此，人们开始担心，地球的（广义）自然资源和自我修复能力将不堪重负。


To some, this logic leads to the conclusion that growth is the problem, and that less growth is the solution.	有些人因此推论，问题出在增长上，而解决办法就是更少的增长。


But, in developing countries, where only sustained growth can lift people out of poverty, limiting it cannot be the answer.	但是，在发展中国家，只有持续增长才能让人们摆脱贫困，限制增长绝不是答案。


The alternative is to change the growth model in order to lighten the impact of higher levels of economic activity on natural resources and the environment.	替代方案是改变增长模式，从而减少高水平经济活动对自然资源和环境的冲击。


But there is no existing alternative to which we can all switch.	但我们找不到适用所有人的现成替代方案。


Changing the growth model means inventing a new one over time, step-by-step, from complementary parts.	改变增长模式意味着从补充性部分开始逐渐逐步地发明新模式。


The two key ingredients seem to be education and values.	其中的两大关键要素是教育和价值。


Everyone, not just policymakers, needs to understand the consequences of our individual and collective choices.	所有人（不光是决策者）需要理解个体和集体选择的后果。


We need to be aware for example, that population growth and rising consumption levels have intergenerational consequences, and that how we conduct ourselves will affect the lifestyles and opportunities of our children and grandchildren. 	我们需要小心（比如）人口增长和消费水平的代际后果，也要小心我们如何对待自己将影响我们子辈和孙辈的生活方式的机会。


Thus far, the quality of our choices has been unimpressive, reflecting little sensitivity to sustainability and the impact of our choices on future generations.	迄今未知，我们的选择的质量并不令人信服，并未体现出多少对可持续性和我们的选择对子孙后代所造成的影响的顾忌。


As a result, many developed countries have built up dangerously large public debts and even larger non-debt liabilities, owing to unsustainable growth patterns.	结果，许多发达国家囤积了非常危险的巨额债务和比债务还要巨大的非债务负债，而这些都是由不可持续的增长模式造成的。


Most of us, I believe, do not knowingly make choices that adversely affect future generations.	我认为，我们当中大多数人是在不知情中做出会给子孙后代带来不良影响的选择的。


So perhaps incomplete knowledge of the consequences of our choices is responsible.	因此，罪魁祸首也许是对我们选择的后果的不完全知识。


Moreover, an unfunded liability path, once taken, is hard to leave, because at the point of departure, some generation is paying for past commitments and at least beginning to fund future ones.	此外，入不敷出的模式一旦染上便很难戒除，因为，从某个时点开始，当前一代需要为过去的承诺买单，并开始为子孙后代储蓄。


That seems unfair, because it is.	这看起来破不公平，因为的确如此。


Most people might agree that living beyond our means in the aggregate, via unfunded social services and insurance, or disproportionate use of resources, imposes a burden on our offspring.	大部分人会同意，通过入不敷出的社会保障和保险和对资源的滥用实现在总量上超过应有水平的生活水平会给子孙后代造成负担。


But we might still fail to reach agreement on who should pay for funding these programs, or for reducing our consumption of resources.	但我们没有就谁应该为这些项目掏钱，或谁应该为削减我们的资源消费负责达成一致。


Too often, it is easier to deal with the distributional problem by shifting the burden to those who are not present, and who are insufficiently represented by those who are.	将分配问题留给本人不在场、又没有足够的代表者的群体解决要容易得多。


Education and values are the foundation of sound individual and, ultimately, collective choices.	教育和价值是合理个人选择——最终是集体选择——的基石。


Without them, the incentives and policies that economists rightly argue are needed to increase energy efficiency, limit carbon emissions, economize on water usage, and much more will lack support and fail in the democratic decision-making process.	经济学家所正确指出，要想增加能源效率、限制碳排放、节约水资源等目标，我们需要各种激励和政策，而没有教育和价值，这些激励和政策就得不到支持，在民主决策过程中流产。


If sustainability is to triumph, it must be predominantly a bottom-up process.	可持续性要想获得胜利，必须来一次自下而上的过程。


Environmentalists are right to focus on education and individual choices, even when their policy proposals are not always on target.	环保主义者重视教育和个人选择是完全正确的，尽管他们的政策主张并不是个个都在点子上。


Education and values will drive local innovation, alter lifestyles, and shift social norms.	教育和价值能推动地方创新，改变生活方式，转变社会范式。


They will also affect business behavior via choices by customers and employees, including business leaders.	教育和价值还能通过消费者和雇员（包括企业领导）选择改变企业行为。


Thus, they are essential components of the formulas needed to pursue sustainable patterns of growth.	因此，教育和价值是追求可持续增长模式所需办法的关键成分。


But, while education and values are necessary, they clearly are not sufficient.	但是，教育和价值是必要而非充分条件。


Complementary national policies and international agreements will require careful scientific and economic analysis and thoughtful choices.	补充性国家政策和国际协议将要求仔细的科学和经济分析和深思熟虑的选择。


The need for burden-sharing, particularly between advanced and developing countries, will not magically disappear.	各国（特别是发达国家和发展中国家间）共担责任的需要不会一夜消失。


Climate-change risks, though serious, should not be mistaken for the entire sustainability agenda.	气候变化风险固然严重，但并不是可持续性日程的全部。


There are clear steps that can be taken.	有几个显而易见的步骤需要迈出。


Appropriate regulation and sufficiently long time horizons can make structures of all kinds much more energy-efficient, without imposing burdensome costs.	合理的监管和足够长期的视界能够让各种结构更加节能，而且不会造成重大负担。


In a similar way, transportation can become less energy-intensive without restricting mobility.	类似地，运输也可以在不影响移动性能的条件下减少能源密集程度。


Some of these shifts might be subject to international coordination, in order to avoid adverse competitive consequences, whether real or perceived.	一些变革需要国际合作，以避免不利的现实上或感觉上的竞争性后果。


But too much coordination can be a bad thing.	但过度合作并非好事。


That is why climate-change negotiations are shifting from the misguided objective of seeking risky 50-year commitments to binding carbon-emissions targets to focusing on parallel, step-by-step processes, including higher energy efficiency, better urban planning, improved transportation systems, and on learning as we go.	这就是为什么气候变化谈判从追求高风险的限制碳排放目标的50年承诺这一被误导的目标转为关注平行开展的逐步过程——包括更高的能源效率、更佳的城市规划、更好的运输系统——以及不断学习。


Likewise, businesses and industries that are heavy water users will simply develop new technologies and thrive in the face of scarcity.	类似地，大量使用水资源的企业和产业在面临稀缺时也会开发出新技术并实现繁荣。


Progress has been helped by growing awareness in populous Asia – and in developing countries generally – that sustainability is the key to achieving their longer-term growth objectives.	人口众多的亚洲——以及所有发展中国家——越来越清醒地认识到，可持续性是实现其长期增长目标的关键，这有助于全世界的进步。


This perspective perhaps comes more naturally in an environment of rapid growth, because their growth models require continual review and adaptation to be sustainable.	这一幕是快速增长环境的自然产物，因为其增长模式要求不断地反省和调整，以实现可持续性。


Over time, values shift as knowledge is acquired and disseminated.	随着知识的获得和传播，价值也会随时间而改变。


Policies aimed at sustainability are likely to follow.	然后，以可持续性为目标的政策也会随之而来。


What is unknown is whether we will reach that point fast enough to avoid major disruptions, or even potential conflict.	现在需要的是，我们是否能足够快地来到这一时刻，从而避免大破坏甚至是潜在的冲突。


The Swedenization of Europe	欧洲的瑞典化


Anti-Semitism, anti-Zionism, and anti-Americanism are becoming linked and ever more rabid in today's Europe.	今天的欧洲，反犹太主义、反犹太复国运动和反美主义日益疯狂，联系也愈加密切。


They arise from a kind of blindness, combined with a strange mixture of alienation, guilt, and fear toward both Israel and America.	它们起源于一种盲目，还与疏远、内疚和美以两国的恐惧奇怪的混杂在一起。


Millions of Europeans resist seeing Israel as a country fighting for its survival.	成百上千万欧洲人拒绝把以色列视作为生存而战的国家。


Israel cannot afford to lose one major war, as it would mean the end of the Jewish democratic state.	以色列不能失掉一场主要战役，因为这就意味着犹太民主国家的终结。


But huge numbers of Europeans believe that something is fundamentally wrong with the Israelis: they never compromise; they prefer using military means to solve political problems.	但很多欧洲人相信以色列有着本质上的错误：他们从不妥协，宁愿用武力解决政治问题。


Something similar is at work in the European attitude to the US.	欧洲对美国的看法也非常相似。


Look at Europe, many Europeans say, we have eradicated wars, dangerous nationalism, and dictatorships. We created a peaceful European Union.	看看欧洲，很多欧洲人说，我们已经消除了战争、危险的民族主义和独裁专政，建立了和平的欧洲联盟。


We do not wage war; we negotiate.	我们不发动战争，我们进行谈判。


We do not exhaust our resources on weapons.	我们不会在武力上浪费资源。


The rest of the planet should learn from us how to live together without terrorizing each other.	世界其它国家应该向我们学习和平共处，而不给其它国家造成威胁。


As a Swede, I have heard such pacific boasting all my life: that neutral Sweden is a moral superpower.	身为一名瑞典人，我一生听到过太多这样平静的夸耀：说中立的瑞典是精神上的超级大国。


Now this bragging has become the EU's ideology.	如今这样的吹嘘成了整个欧盟的理念。


We are the moral continent.	我们是最有道德的国家。


Call this the "Swedenization" of Europe.	我把它叫做欧洲的"瑞典化"。


Yes, today's EU is a miracle for a continent where two modern totalitarian movements - Communism and Nazism - unleashed rivers of blood.	是的，对于这块血流成河的现代集权主义¾共产主义和纳粹主义两度诞生的大陆，今天的欧洲联盟算得上一个奇迹。


But what Europe forgets is how those ideologies were overcome.	但欧洲没有记住：我们是怎么战胜这两种意识形态的。


Without the US Army, Western Europe would not have been liberated in 1945.	没有美国的军队，西欧不会在1945年解放。


Without the Marshall Plan and NATO, it would not have taken off economically.	没有马歇尔计划和北大西洋公约，欧洲也不会获得经济上的腾飞。


Without the policy of containment under America's security umbrella, the Red Army would have strangled the dream of freedom in Eastern Europe, or brought European unity, but under a flag with red stars.	没有美国安全伞下的遏制政策，红军就会扼杀东欧的自由之梦，也许也会统一欧洲，但却在绣着红星的旗帜之下。


West Europeans also forget that some areas of the world have never known freedom.	西欧人也没有记住：世界某些地区根本不存在自由。


In many places, torture chambers are the rules of the game, not the grotesque and shameful mistakes of ill-supervised troops.	在很多地方，刑讯室就是游戏规则，而不是管理不善军队的犯下的古怪、可耻的错误。


Any attempt in such places to go behave the European way and negotiate - without the military power needed to back up diplomacy - would be pathetic.	在上述地区任何像欧洲人一样进行谈判的努力¾如果没有支持外交所需的强大军力，都将获得可悲的下场。


Instead of supporting those who fight international terrorism, many Europeans try to blame the spread of terrorism on Israel and the US.	很多欧洲人不去支持同国际恐怖主义作战的力量，而将恐怖主义的蔓延归咎于美国和以色列。


This is a new European illusion. Spain's latter day appeasement à la Munich arises from this thinking.	这是欧洲一种新的错觉，西班牙后期对慕尼黑的妥协就是源于这样的想法。


But what if Spain - and Europe as a whole - had reacted in the opposite way to the Madrid train bombing of April, saying: "We promise that because of that slaughter we will double our support for stabilization in Iraq by sending twice as many troops, experts, engineers, teachers, policemen, doctors, and billions of euros in support of allied forces and their Iraqi co-workers."	但如果西班牙，和整个欧洲，对4月马德里火车爆炸事件处理相反，结果又将如何？ 如果他们宣布："由于这次屠杀，我们会加倍支持伊拉克的稳定力量，派遣两倍人数的军队、专家、技术人员、教师、警察、医生，拨款成百上千亿美元支持盟军和他们的伊拉克战友。


The triumph of terrorists would have been transformed into a triumph of the war on terror.	"如果这样，恐怖分子的胜利就会变成反恐战争的胜利。


The images many Europeans hold of America and Israel create the political climate for some very ugly bias.	很多欧洲人对美国和以色列的看法为某些极其丑陋的偏见创造了政治环境。


You have the Great Satan and the Small Satan.	我们面对着大小魔鬼。


America wants to dominate the world - exactly the allegations made in traditional anti-Semitic rhetoric about the Jews.	美国想要独霸世界¾与传统的反犹太论调如出一辙。


Indeed, modern anti-Zionist rhetoric portrays Israel's goal as domination of the whole Middle East.	事实上，现代的反犹太复国论调说以色列妄图独霸中东。


Such ideas are reflected in opinions polls in which Europeans claim that Israel and the US are the true dangers to world peace.	很多民意测验体现了这样的观点，说美国和以色列才是世界和平的真正威胁。


Ian Buruma, the British writer, claims that this European rage against America and Israel has to do with guilt and fear.	英国作家Ian Buruma认为，欧洲人对美国和以色列的愤怒源于内心的愧疚和恐惧。


The two world wars led to such catastrophic carnage that "never again" was interpreted as "welfare at home, non-intervention abroad."	两次世界大战造成了灾难性的流血，以至于"历史再也不能重演"被演绎成了"安享国内幸福，不管国际事务。


The problem with this concept is that it could only survive under the protection of American might.	"这一理念的问题在于：只有在美国的佑护下它才有存在的可能。


Extreme anti-Americanism and anti-Zionism are actually merging.	极端的反美和反犹太复国主义正在相互融合。


The so-called peace poster "Hitler Had Two Sons: Bush and Sharon," displayed in European anti-war rallies, combines trivialization of Nazism with demonization of both the victims of Nazism and those who defeated Nazism.	欧洲反战游行中打出的所谓和平海报"希特勒有两个儿子：布什和沙龙"，把纳粹主义的平庸化和对纳粹受害者及其战胜者的魔鬼化结合在一起。


Much of this grows from a subconscious European guilt related to the Holocaust.	上述理念大都出自大屠杀给欧洲人潜意识中带来的愧疚感。


Now the Holocaust's victims - and their children and grandchildren - are supposedly doing to others what was done to them.	如今大屠杀的牺牲者和他们的子子孙孙，正在把自己受过的伤害转施于人。


By equating the murderer and the victim, we wash our hands.	通过将屠杀者和受害者划上等号，我们选择了袖手旁观。


This pattern of anti-Zionism and anti-Americanism returns again and again.	这样的反美和反犹太复国主义一再呈现。


"The ugly Israeli" and "the ugly American" seem to be of the same family.	"丑陋的以色列"和"丑陋的美国"似乎源于同一家族。


"The ugly Jew" becomes the instrumental part of this defamation when so-called neoconservatives are blamed both for American militarism and Israeli brutalities and then selectively named: Wolfowitz, Perle, Abrams, Kristol, etc.	"丑陋的犹太人"成了上述诽谤的有力工具，而所谓新保守主义者被认做美军国主义和以残暴行径的罪魁祸首，并分别命名为：Wolfowitz, Perle, Abrams和Kristol如此等等。


This is a new version of the old myth that Jews rule the US.	这是犹太人统治美国神话的最新版本。


Earlier this year, the editor of Die Zeit , Josef Joffe, put his finger on the issue: like Jews, Americans are said to be selfish and arrogant.	今年早些时候，《 Die Zeit 》 编辑Josef Joffe谈到了这一现象：和犹太人一样，美国人被人们说成自私傲慢。


Like Jews, they are in thrall to a fundamentalist religion that renders them self-righteous and dangerous. Like Jews, Americans are money-grabbing capitalists, for whom the highest value is the cash nexus.	和犹太��一样，美国人是聚敛财富的资本家，现金关系是他们心中的最高价值。


"America and Israel are the outsiders - just as Jews have been all the way into the 21st century," Joffe says.	"美国和以色列是外人¾正如犹太人在21世纪前所处的地位一样，"Joffe如是说。


The links between anti-Semitism, anti-Zionism, and anti-Americanism are all too real.	反犹太主义、反犹太复国运动和反美主义的联系太真实了。


Unless Europe's leaders roundly condemn this unholy triple alliance, it will poison Middle East politics and transatlantic relations alike.	除非欧洲领袖彻底谴责这罪恶的三国联盟，它还将毒害中东政治和泛大西洋关系。


The Geneva Conversion	日内瓦变换


DENVER – The agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons reached by Russia and the United States is important not so much for what it could mean on the ground – which remains to be seen as inspectors begin to flow into Syria and, we hope, chemical-weapons stockpiles begin to be destroyed.	丹佛—俄罗斯和美国在叙利亚化学武器问题上达成的协议的重要性不如对现场那么重要——调查者才刚刚进入叙利亚，我们希望化学武器库存已开始销毁。


Rather, the agreement’s main significance consists in the fact that it was struck at all: US Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Geneva, that most traditional of diplomatic venues, and cut a deal on an issue of intense mutual interest.	相反，这一协议的主要影响在于它集合了所有要素这一事实：美国国务卿克里与俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫在最传统的外交场合——日内瓦举行了会晤，并就一个严重影响双方共同利益的问题达成了一致。


In the days, weeks, and months ahead, the arrangements to remove chemical weapons from Syria will, one hopes, begin a new era in which the US and Russia work together on other pressing global issues as well.	在未来几天、几周、几个月中，我们希望，让化学武器在叙利亚消失的安排能够开启一个新时代，美国和俄罗斯在其他紧迫的全球问题上也能携手共事。


A cooperative US-Russia relationship is essential if the international system, now almost dysfunctional, is to work properly in the future.	如果濒于失调的国际体系要想在未来继续正常运转的话，合作的美俄关系是至关重要的。


The agreement on Syria could accomplish something else: Americans might recognize that, lo and behold, there are other ways to solve problems than by dropping bombs.	叙利亚问题的协议可以完成其他东西：美国人或许会认识到，你瞧，除了丢炸弹之外还有别的办法可以解决问题。


Russian President Vladimir Putin’s clumsy foray into the American debate infuriated many Americans (including me), but it was certainly a teachable moment.	俄罗斯总统普京单刀直入地干涉美国争论让很多美国人（包括我）感到十分愤慨，但这显然是一个值得回味的时刻。


Many outside the US thought it was high time that someone offered America a taste of its own paternalism – and even better that that someone was Putin, a politician who has, to put it gently, his own set of foibles.	许多非美国人认为这是一个高光时刻，终于有人让美国尝到了它自己的家长作风的滋味——更妙的是，这个人正是普京，说得客气点，他自己身上满是小毛病。


So Americans might want to tone down their anti-Putin rhetoric.	因此，美国人可能不再对普京那么反感了。


As a practical matter, Putin certainly does not seem to be suffering any adverse domestic political consequences from his bashing in the US.	从实际角度讲，普京显然没有因为抨击美国而造成任何负面的国内政治后果。


More broadly, America’s supply of moralistic – and even churlish – advice to the rest of the world has greatly exceeded international demand for it.	更广泛地说，美国向世界其他国家提供的说教式——甚至可以说是粗野的——建议远远超过了国际社会需要的限度。


And its willingness to engage militarily as an early step, rather than as a last resort, has alienated many around the world.	而其准备着将军事行动作为先行步骤而不是最后行动使其在世界上颇为孤立。


No amount of “Muslim outreach” and other public diplomacy alone will change that.	这决非光凭“穆斯林扩张”和其他公共外交可以改变的。


Support for insurgencies is a case in point.	支持暴乱是一个要害点。


Many countries – Syria qualifies as a poster child in this regard – suffer under miserable, brutal governments.	许多国家——从这个标准看，叙利亚可以算得上是好孩子——都在受恶劣残暴的政府的璀璨。


But backing an armed rebellion is a major step, especially when the rebels whom one is backing have, as in Syria, started something that they may not be able to finish.	但支持武装暴动是一件大事，特别是当被支持的暴乱者（比如叙利亚叛军）开启了其无法收拾的额局面的时候。


This is not to say that the US should never support insurgencies against established governments; but doing so is almost always a lonely affair, without any realistic expectation of enlisting many partners in the process.	这并不是说美国永远不应该支持反对现任政府的暴动，但这样做几乎永远是孤家寡人，几乎无法指望此过程中出现多少盟友。


Such policy choices should be made rarely, and with a clear understanding that support for the violent overthrow of a government is not very popular around the world.	这样的政策选择以少做为妙，并且应该由一个明确的认识——支持暴力推翻一国政府在国际上并不讨好。


The road that got the US to the Geneva agreement with the Russians was long and windy, and may indeed have done some damage to America’s standing in the world, even though the outcome was better than any other on offer.	美国在日内瓦与俄罗斯达成协议的过程可谓道路阻且长，事实上，可能已经给美国在世界的立场造成了一些伤害，尽管最后的结果比其他方案都要更优。


To put that process behind it, the US needs to follow up with the Russians to establish a broader pattern of long-overdue cooperation.	在走过了这一过程后，美国需要继续与俄罗斯一起建立缺失已久的范围更广的合作模式。


Call it a “reset” button – like the one then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave to Lavrov in 2009 – or whatever one wants.	我们可以称之为“重启”键——2009年，时任国务卿希拉里·克林顿曾如此对拉夫罗夫说——或者任何其他称呼。


But it should be more than a gag gift.	但这一次不能再是戏谑。


The reset must occur in the context of efforts to solve real problems together.	重启必须在共同努力解决实际问题的条件下发生。


A good place to start would be to seek a Syrian peace deal that enables the country’s different communities – now butchering each other – to live in one state.	一个很好的出发点是寻求达成叙利亚和平协议，以使该国的不同社会——目前他们处于互相杀戮的状态——共同生活在这个国家中。


Maybe the US is right that Syria’s brutal and mendacious president, Bashar al-Assad, cannot be part of any eventual solution.	美国认为任何最终解决方案都不能容忍虚伪残暴的叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德，这可能是对的。


But there is time to figure that out, and Syria’s own 2014 election might offer a face-saving way out of that conundrum.	但指出这一点需要时机，叙利亚2014年选举可以为这一难题提供一个体面解决的机会。


A role for the Russians could help coax Assad into offering concessions that he will not make as long as he views the process as one that is intended to destroy him.	俄罗斯的角色可以是促使巴沙尔做出他在认为这是意在毁灭他的方案的情况下不可能做出的让步。


At this point, any peace process is a long shot, but so is the prospect of either side winning militarily, with or without the arrival of American arms for the rebels.	在这一点上，任何和平��程都可以说是如履薄冰，但任何一方在军事上获胜（不管美国是否对叛军提供军火）也是如此。


The alternative of allowing this fight to the death to play out – a proposal heard daily on American talkathon television – is not worthy of our civilization.	冷眼旁观双方血战到底的替代方案——你每天都能在电视上看到美国人不厌其烦地说着这一方案——对于我们的文明来说绝不划算。


Such a scenario could amount to fighting to the last Syrian child.	发生这样的情景可能会让叙利亚成为不毛之地。


The world needs all hands on deck – not only Russian and American, but also Arab, Chinese, European, and anyone else’s.	世界需要大家携手——不仅仅是俄罗斯人和美国人，还有阿拉伯人、中国人、欧洲人和其他所有国家的人。


The beacon of hope shining from Geneva should guide us all.	日内瓦的希望灯塔应该成为我们所有人的方向。


The Tabloid Syndrome	小报综合症


The world is a complex and intricate place.	这个世界错综复杂。


So how are we to understand even just a piece of it, say, the United States government and its economic policies?	那么我们应当怎样去理解哪怕只是其中的一小部分，比方说美国政府和它的经济政策？


It is a big problem, for the standard sources that I was taught as a child to rely upon – newspapers and television news – are breaking down.	这是个大问题，因为从孩提时代起我们就被灌输相信的标准消息来源¾报纸和电视新闻¾正在慢慢地倒塌下去。


For example, in early February 2004, the then Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, N. Gregory Mankiw, spent some time trying to explain the issues surrounding “outsourcing” to America’s elite political news reporters.	举例来讲，2004年2月初，总统经济顾问委员会主席，N·格里高利·曼昆（N. Gregory Mankiw），着实花了些时间向美国顶尖的政治新闻记者解释与“外包”有关的种种问题。


Mankiw’s standard description of outsourcing is very much like mine – indeed, like that of all neoclassical and neoliberal economists – and goes something like this:	曼昆对外包的标准描述跟我十分类似¾实际上，所有新古典主义和新自由主义的经济学家都有着类似的说法¾具体内容是这样的：


As with any change in technology that increases the volume of international trade in goods and services, the outsourcing of service-sector jobs creates winners and losers – but almost surely more and bigger winners than losers.	就像技术的任何变化都会增加商品和服务领域的国际贸易数量一样，对服务部门的工作实行外购也会产生赢家与输家¾但有一点几乎可以肯定，那就是赢家的数量肯定更多，获利也肯定更大。


Big winners are workers in poor countries who get better jobs working for firms that can now export services to rich countries.	最大的赢家是贫穷国家的工人，他们在向富裕国家出口服务的公司里得到了更好的工作机会。


The major losers are those who previously held the now-outsourced service-sector jobs; they must now find new and different jobs and almost surely find that their skills are worth less.	那些曾经拥有如今外包了的服务业工作的人则是最主要的输家，他们必须去寻找新的、不同的工作，而且几乎肯定会发现自己曾经拥有的技能变得一文不值。


But even in the US, losers’ losses are outweighed by winners’ gains.	但即便是在美国，输家的损失也无法与赢家的收益相提并论。


Workers in certain industries find their skills in higher demand as foreigners spend their increased dollar earnings, consumers benefit from lower prices, and shareholders and managers see their companies’ profits increase.	随着外国人花掉他们增加以后的美元收入，从事特定行业的员工会发现对自己技能的需求日益增加。 消费者享受到了更为低廉的物价，股东和经理们看到了公司盈利的提升。


However much we may worry about the distributional consequences of outsourcing, we should never overlook the fact that it increases the total size of the economic pie.	无论我们对外购对分配的影响有多少顾虑，我们永远也不应该忽视这样一点：那就是外购能够将经济蛋糕做得更大。


Mankiw made that argument, but he failed to be understood.	曼昆提出了这样的说法，但却没有人理解他。


Indeed, on February 10, 2004, he woke up to an unpleasant news story in the Washington Post: ”President Bush’s top economist yesterday said the outsourcing of US service jobs to workers overseas is good for the nation’s economy....	事实上，2004年的2月10日，曼昆一觉醒来时，等待他的却是《华盛顿邮报》上一篇令人生厌的报导：“布什总统的首席经济学家昨天声称对美国的服务性工作实行海外采购有利于美国经济的发展. .


Mankiw’s comments come as the president struggles to shore up support in manufacturing states that have lost millions of jobs....Mankiw’s conclusions may prove discordant during an election year...”	. 曼昆恰恰选在总统正拼命在制造业发达的各州寻求支持的节骨眼上做这番评论，而这些州有成百上千万的工人因此失去了工作.


It happened again on February 11: “Democrats...lit into President Bush’s chief economist yesterday for his laudatory statements on the movement of U.S. jobs abroad....	昨天批评布什总统的首席经济学家对美国工作流往海外的赞美之辞. .


Rep. Donald Manzullo (R-Ill.) called for the resignation of N. Gregory Mankiw...”	共和党人唐纳德·曼祖洛（R-I11）大声呼吁N·格里高利·曼昆辞职. .


Of course, the Washington Post’s journalists know, on some level, that they were being unfair to Mankiw.	当然，《华盛顿邮报》的记者在某种程度上知道曼昆受到了不公平的对待。


They didn’t claim that what he said was inaccurate, or shortsighted, or analytically unsound.	他们并没有直接指责曼昆说得不对、或者指责曼昆鼠目寸光、漏洞百出。


The descriptive terms they used – “discordant,” “embarrassing,” “political liability” – suggest that they knew they were giving Mankiw a raw deal.	他们所用的形容词¾“不协调”、“令人尴尬”、“政治责任”¾表明他们知道曼昆受到了不公平的对待。


But was there any sign of the standard economic analysis of outsourcing in their stories?	但是在他们的报导里有没有对外包进行标准经济分析的迹象？


Not one.	答案是一点也没有。


Greg Mankiw thought a bunch of reporters were coming to talk to him about the state of the economy and the analysis made by the Council of Economic Advisers in its “2004 Economic Report of the President.”	格里高利·曼昆以为这帮记者是来与他探讨目前的经济状况，探讨总统委员会的经济顾问在“2004年总统经济报告”中所做的分析。


But the last thing the reporters wanted to do was to convey a thumbnail summary of Mankiw’s analysis of outsourcing.	但实际上，记者们最不愿做的就是如实地在报纸上刊登曼昆针对外包所做的豆腐块大小的总结。


That’s simply not the business they saw themselves as being in.	在他们看来，这根本就不是他们的工作。


The problem is not that the Washington Post and papers like it hire people who are unintelligent or lazy.	问题不在于《华盛顿邮报》和其他类似报纸雇佣的记者愚蠢或者懒惰。


The problem is that conveying accurate information about the economy is far down the list of priorities for normal news reporters.	问题在于传达关于经济的准确信息是正常的新闻记者最不愿做的事情。


Making a splash matters. So does keeping track of who is up politically and who is down.	真正有意义的是哗众取宠，随时追踪政界中的荣辱沉浮。


So does pleasing your editors so that they’ll give your stories better placement, and pleasing your sources so that they’ll keep talking to you.	重要的还有取悦那些编辑，这样你的文章就可以占据更好的位置。 最后还不要忘记取悦信息渠道，这样他们就会不断地向你爆料。


Compared to these imperatives, there is little to be gained from informing the public about how the economy really functions and about the dilemmas of economic policy.	跟这些需要相比，告诉公众经济运行的真实情况和经济政策的两难选择几乎无利可图。


Indeed, the economy is vastly inferior to Hollywood as a source of glitterati gossip, but much economic reporting makes the coverage of the birth of Brad Pitt’s and Angelina Jolie’s baby look profoundly serious.	实际上，在为时髦一族提供茶余饭后的谈资方面，经济的作用远比不上好莱坞。 但是众多的经济报道使布拉德·皮特（Brad Pitt）和安吉莉娜·茱丽（Angelina Jolie）的孩子的出世俨然平添了几分严肃。


Likewise, government is vastly inferior to the World Cup as a sporting spectacle, but much political reporting focuses on who played well and who played badly.	同样道理，政府在体育领域受人关注的程度远不及世界杯，但很多政治报导却对哪位政治家步步高升、哪位政治家灰头土脸更加津津乐道。


What can we do about this?	我们该怎么做？


The answer is simple, and it is a matter of demand, not supply.	答案再简单不过，问题的关键在于需求，而不在于供给。


After all, few people go into journalism to deliberately mislead the public.	归根结底，很少有人进入新闻界就是为了误导公众。


If we demand better economic and political journalism the way we demand excellent coverage of the World Cup, we’ll get it.	如果我们要求媒体像报导世界杯那样高质量地报导政治和经济事件，那么我们一定能够如愿以偿。


The Tails Wagging the Kremlin Dog?	玩弄克林姆林宫小狗的小把戏


MOSCOW – Imagine a crank who tries to pass himself off as a nineteenth-century Russian baron. He grows sideburns, wears a long frock-coat, and carries a walking stick.	发自莫斯科——让我们想象一个把自己伪装成19世纪俄国男爵的怪人：他留着连鬓胡子，穿一身双排扣礼服，手里还柱着一根手杖。


Anyone who runs into such a figure would sneer and mock him.	任何一个碰见这种人物的人都会对他嘲笑挖苦一番。


Now, suppose that same crank attempted to treat passersby as if they were his serfs.	现在，让我们假设这个怪人试图把每一个经过他身边的途人都视为自己的仆从。


In that case, he would risk getting a beating, though perhaps a few beggars would indulge his fantasies in the hope of duping him out of his money.	在此情景下他很可能会被狠揍一顿； 或者有些乞讨者会迎合他的幻想，好从这个怪人的口袋里弄点钱。


Something of this sort now characterizes relations between Russia and several former Soviet republics, for the foreign-policy doctrine that guides today’s Kremlin is a preposterous mix of nineteenth-century Realpolitik and early twentieth-century geopolitics.	而以上情景中的某些方面恰巧勾勒出了当今俄罗斯同几个前苏联加盟共和国之间的关系，因为目前指导克里姆林宫的对外政策的理论堪称一锅荒谬的大杂烩：既结合了19世纪的“实力政策“，又有20世纪早期的地缘政治理念参杂其中。


According to this view, every great power needs obedient satellite countries.	根据这一观点，每一强权都需要由众多驯服的卫星国来众星拱月般地护卫着。


Under such an approach, NATO’s expansion is represented as an extension of America’s sphere of influence, to the detriment of Russia, of course.	而在这种路线指引之下，北约组织的扩张即代表了美国影响范围的延伸，对于俄罗斯来说显然也是十分不利的。


In order to compensate for its growing inferiority complex, Russia has cobbled together the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which, by its title and constitutional principles, is a parody of NATO.	为了补偿其日益增长的自卑感，俄罗斯召集成立“集体安全条约组织”(CSTO)。 按其称谓和纲领性原则，CSTO其实就是一个拙劣的“北约”仿制品。


For all this, the Kremlin is not in the least embarrassed by the fact that the CSTO is essentially a mechanical connection of bilateral military agreements between Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Russia.	虽然该组织只不过是将白俄罗斯、亚美尼亚、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦以及俄罗斯间的双边军事协议强行堆砌在一起，而对此克林姆林宫当局依然感觉良好，安之若素。


Nobody knows what vision of collective defense is to be implemented: one needs a fertile imagination to imagine Belarusian paratroopers defending the Tajik border.	没有人知道这种集体防御到底要达到什么样的前景： 我们需要很丰富的想象力才能联想到如何教白俄罗斯的伞兵去保卫塔吉克斯坦的边境。


Moreover, the constitutions of a number of CSTO countries expressly prohibit sending troops outside national territory.	更加荒唐的是，CSTO里许多国家的宪法明令禁止向本国以外派驻军队。


But the Kremlin’s myopic concentration on military matters, and its pointless attempts to play a zero-sum game with the West has turned Russia into an object for manipulation by its junior partners.	然而克里姆林宫在军事事务上的急功近利，以及其试图同西方来一场零和博弈的无意义企图，已经将俄罗斯变成了被周边小型伙伴国玩弄于股掌之中的一个小木偶。


The virtuoso of such manipulation is Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.	而最善于玩这种木偶戏的人，则是白俄罗斯总统亚历山大·卢卡申科。


Belarus’s economy can function only if Russia subsidizes energy prices and allocates non-repayable credits.	只有在俄罗斯在能源价格上给予补贴并提供不必偿还的贷款的情况下，白俄经济才能运转起来。


Yet, despite all this, Lukashenko manages to avoid implementing economic projects profitable to Russia (i.e., a single currency).	然而即便如此，卢卡申科却能成功的避免实施对俄罗斯有利的经济项目（比如推动两国统一使用俄罗斯卢布）。


Whenever Russia applies pressure, he immediately starts yelling about Moscow’s “ingratitude” – proclaiming that “10,000,000 Belarusians protect Russia from NATO’s tanks.”	无论何时，只要俄方施加压力，卢卡申科立即开始抱怨莫斯科方面的“忘恩负义”——类似大肆渲染“一千万白俄罗斯人正保卫俄罗斯避免北约坦克的进犯”。


Worse, whenever Moscow persists in its demands, Lukashenko abrogates agreements without a twinge of conscience.	更为令人担忧的是，一旦莫斯科方面坚持自身的诉求，卢卡申科就立即撕毁协约，而且没有丝毫内疚和迟疑。


Thus, when Russia banned imports of Belarusian dairy products (in an attempt to punish Lukashenko for accepting a $2,000,000,000 credit but not fulfilling his promise to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia), Lukashenko refused to attend a CSTO summit or join its collective agreement for the establishment of an operational response force.	比如俄罗斯这边禁止进口白俄罗斯的乳制品（为了惩罚卢卡申科政府接受价值20亿美元贷款，却不依承诺去承认南奥赛梯共和国和阿布哈兹的行为），那边卢卡申科就拒绝参加集体合作条约组织的首脑会议，或者拒不签署构建一支CSTO军事反应部队的集体协议。


Lukashenko avoids any major integration projects, even those in the military sphere.	对于所有主要的综合性方案卢卡申科都置之不理，即使是涉及军事范畴的也毫不例外。


The most telling example is the creation of a joint air defense system.	而其中最有说服力的例子莫过于一个跨国联合防空体系的创建过程。


Both Russia and Belarus have been trying to realize this project for ten years; countless agreements have been achieved – on paper. Yet no concrete action is taken.	十年以来，俄白双方都试图把这件事办成，为此签订的协议也已数不胜数——不过都是纸上谈兵，从来没有任何具体行动。


Lukashenko, simply, does not intend to allow even a small part of his army to become subordinated to Moscow.	简而言之，哪怕是让白俄罗斯军事力量的很小一部分从属于莫斯科，卢卡申科也不情愿。


While the military threat in the West looks as illusory as it is, in Central Asia that threat is concrete.	当来自西边的军事威胁还要不可及之时，中亚这边的威胁却已经摆在眼前了。


In the event that the coalition of NATO forces in Afghanistan is defeated, a wave of Islamic extremism will submerge the Central Asian states, inciting local civil wars.	随着北约联军在阿富汗战场上的节节败退，一股伊斯兰极端主义的浪潮正席卷中亚各国，甚至可能挑起内战。


For Russia, this could mean (in the best case) tens of thousands of refugees or (in the worst case) the arrival of armed militias on its territory.	对俄罗斯来说，幸运的话要应付的只是数万��难民，万一运气不济，迎来的可能就是武装到牙齿的伊斯兰极端分子。


As a result, the Kremlin has a vital interested in NATO’s success in Afghanistan.	由此可见，北约在阿富汗的成功对于克林姆林宫堪称意义重大。


Yet, for the last four years, Russia has tried to hinder NATO in every possible way.	但在近4年间，俄方却在用尽一切手段阻挠北约。


In 2005, at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Vladimir Putin pressed for the final declaration to include a demand for withdrawal of American bases from Central Asia.	在2005年的上海合作组织峰会上，时任俄罗斯总统的普京就强烈要求峰会发表一份声明，内容包括呼吁撤销美军驻中亚的所有军事基地。


Kremlin strategists explained that they feared the US would oust Russia from Central Asia.	为此克林姆林宫的战略分析家说他们主要是害怕美方势力会把俄罗斯逐出中亚。


But, now that a Russian-American agreement allows supply flights to Afghanistan to go through Russian airspace, it is clear that Russia sought only to monopolize the military cargo transportation routs in order to gain leverage over the United States.	而今美俄双方却签订协议，允许美方的后勤运输机飞越俄领空去支援阿富汗，很明显，俄方就是想独霸所有的军事运输通道，以便自己能在和美方讨价还价时占到上风。


In February, the Kremlin gave Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev $500 million for a promise to close America’s base in his country.	在今年二月，克林姆林宫又给了吉尔吉斯斯坦总统库尔曼别克·巴基耶夫5亿美元，以换取他关闭境内美军基地的承诺。


Then the Americans offered Bakiyev $160 million a year, and now there may be no official base, but a “transit center” that serves the same functions.	随后美方则给巴基耶夫开价1. 6亿美元一年，结果现在美军虽然在当地取消了正式基地，却保留了个照样执行同样任务的所谓“运输中心”。


So the Kremlin paid out several hundred million dollars just to replace some signs.	克林姆林宫花了大把的钞票，只不过是帮吉尔吉斯斯坦换了几块道路指示牌罢了。


Soon after this, Russian Vice Premier Igor Sechin and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov were sent to Bishkek in an effort to get something for Russia’s money.	在这一切发生了之后，俄副总理伊戈尔·谢琴与国防部长阿纳托利·谢尔久科夫就被派到吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克，试图为俄方挽回点利益。


Bakiyev seems to have said: so, you are worried about the American military presence in Central Asia, and you want to confront it. Fine, the Americans can have one base in Kyrgyzstan, and Russia can have two.	而听说巴基耶夫如此回应两人：你们既对美军出现在中亚感到忧心，又想和美国人搞对抗，那好吧，我只允许美国人在这里建一个基地，让你们也来建两个基地好了。


The resulting “military asset,” however, is strategic gibberish, having been built in Kyrgyzstan’s near-lawless Osh region, with its appalling poverty, drug trafficking, and ethnic tensions.	然而应运而生的俄“军事设施”简直就是战略上的败笔，这些设施矗立在吉国境内近乎无法管制的欧什地区，周围充斥着令人震惊的贫穷，毒品走私和民族矛盾。


Seizure of a Russian military base in order to acquire weapons is, indeed, likely to become a vital goal of “extremists.”	对于活动在周围的“极端分子”来说，占领一个俄军基地来获取武器似乎是个挺可行的方案。


But, in a way, the Russian soldiers there are already hostages – not least to the Kremlin’s bankrupt foreign policy.	但事实上，驻扎在那里的俄军士兵已经变成了人质——尤其是俄罗斯破产的外交政策的人质。


The Taliban Reborn	塔利班的重生


NEW DELHI – The lull in headline-grabbing terror attacks appears to be over.	新德里——高调恐怖袭击的间歇期似乎已经结束。


But do the recent suicide attack on the Bagram air base outside of Kabul, a key United States military installation in Afghanistan, and the failed car bombing in New York City’s Times Square mean that the “war on terror” (a phrase that the Obama administration has deliberately sought to avoid) has reignited?	但不久前对美国在阿富汗重要军事设施喀布尔郊外巴格拉姆空军基地的自杀性袭击以及纽约时代广场未能得逞的汽车炸弹爆炸事件是否真的意味着“打击恐怖主义的战争”（奥巴马政府一直有意回避这一词汇）已经重燃战火？


Although America and the West may have felt as if jihadist terrorism was declining in its ferocity, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, no such feeling of false security ever took hold.	虽然美国和西方国家曾经感到圣战恐怖主义的气焰有所下降，但这样的虚假安全感在阿富汗、巴基斯坦和印度却从未存在过。


Indeed, the question in this region is not whether the war on terror can be wound down, but whether Pakistan, which in many ways has become Islamic terrorism’s nexus, is doing all that it can to fight it.	事实上，该地区所面临的问题不是打击恐怖主义的战争能否歇口气，而是在许多方面已经成为伊斯兰恐怖主义联系纽带的巴基斯坦在打击恐怖主义方面是否正全力以赴。


Here is a simple formula for assessing a country’s approach to combating terrorism: credibility + transparency + integrity of approach = legitimacy and effectiveness.	下面是一个评估国家对抗恐怖主义态度的简单公式： 信誉度+透明度+方法的诚实性＝合法性及效果。


Let us apply this formula to Pakistan.	让我们用这个公式来评估巴基斯坦的情况。


Analyzing the failed Times Square bombing, Ambassador Zafar Hilaly, a well-respected former Pakistani diplomat, wrote “that nowhere else today have so many armed foreign outlaws been able to use the territory of a sovereign state to wage war for so long, and with such impunity, against other countries.	在分析失败的时代广场爆炸事件时，一位广受尊敬的前巴基斯坦外交家扎法尔·伊拉利大使写道“在世界任何其他地方都不可能有那么多全副武装的外国不法分子利用一个主权国家的领土在如此长的时间内对别国发动战争，而且还可以不受任何惩罚。


[Those] who roam…unchallenged have become…partners…in a war against the country itself.”	[那些]肆无忌惮暴行的纵容者已经成为…对国家发动战争…的帮凶。


The Taliban in Pakistan, Hilaly concluded, have become an “autonomous force beyond … control.”	” 伊拉利最后认为，巴基斯坦的塔利班已经成为“一股无法…控制的自治力量。 ”


Pakistan, after joining the US, as an “ally” in the war on terror now appears to be paying a high price domestically for becoming a “rented state.”	成为美国打击恐怖战争盟友的巴基斯坦现在似乎正在为沦为“被租赁国”而在国内付出惨重的代价。


A vast majority of Pakistan’s citizens deeply resent America’s presence and influence in their country.	绝大部分巴基斯坦民众痛恨美国的进驻及其产生的影响。


This growing alienation probably played a considerable part in US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying that deteriorating security in nuclear-armed Pakistan “pose(d) a mortal” threat to the US.	这种愈演愈烈的疏离情绪在美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿对装备了核武器的巴基斯坦安全情况不断恶化且对美国“造成致命”威胁的指责中发挥了极大的作用。


Following the Times Square bombing attempt, Clinton issued an even harsher judgment: “if a terror attack like the New York bombing were to be successful and found to have originated from that country, there would be very severe consequences.”	时代广场爆炸企图发生后，克林顿发出了更加严厉的谴责： “如果像纽约爆炸这样的恐怖袭击真的发生并确定与那个国家有关，由此带来的后果将会非常严重。


Clinton also said that Osama bin Laden’s whereabouts are known to “some” in Pakistan.	” 克林顿还说巴基斯坦“某些人”知道奥萨马·本·拉登的行踪。


Eric Holder, the US attorney general, was even more explicit about the Times Square episode: “We know that they (the Pakistan Taliban) helped direct it.	美国司法部长埃里克·霍尔德对时代广场事件的态度更加直截了当： “我们知道他们（巴基斯坦塔利班）参与了此次活动的策划。


And I suspect that we are going to come up with evidence that they helped to finance it.	我甚至怀疑我们能拿到证据证明他们提供了部分资助。


They were intimately involved in this plot.”	他们密切参与了这项阴谋。 ”


US President Barack Obama has termed the Pakistan Taliban a “cancer” in the heart of Pakistan, and its origins are not shrouded in mystery.	美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马将巴基斯坦塔利班称为靠近巴基斯坦心脏的“毒瘤”，称该恐怖组织的来龙去脉尽在美国情报部门掌握。


In December 2007, about 13 militant groups came together to form the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and chose Baitullah Mehsud as their leader.	2007年12月，大约13个激进团体合并成为巴基斯坦塔利班（TTP），并推举巴伊图拉·迈赫苏德担任领袖。


Mehsud was reported killed by an airstrike from a US drone in August 2009.	迈赫苏德据报道于2009年的8月死于一次美国无人机实施的轰炸。


The TTP has an estimated 30,000-35,000 adherents from all of Pakistan���s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, the near lawless regions where the writ of Pakistan’s government barely reaches.	巴基斯坦塔利班在巴联邦政府管辖的部落机构中估计有30,000-35,000名追随者，这些地区在法律上近乎真空，巴基斯坦政府的政令根本发挥不了作用。


The TTP’s stated objectives include jihad against the Pakistani army, enforcement of sharia law across the country, and a plan to unite with the Afghan Taliban to fight the NATO forces in that country.	巴基斯坦塔利班的目标包括对巴基斯坦军队发动圣战，在巴基斯坦全境实行伊斯兰法，还计划联合阿富汗塔利班武装与该国的北约部队交战。


The failed Times Square attack demonstrates the TTP’s growing transnational ambitions (but also that the group’s reach exceeds its grasp, at least for now).	此次失败的时代广场袭击事件表明巴基斯坦塔利班的国际野心正在膨胀（但同时也表明这一组织的野心超越了它的能力，至少到目前为止还属于这种情况）。


Despite a supposed offensive by Pakistan’s government against the TTP in some of the tribal regions, a recent documentary reported that the group is now recruiting young children to carry out suicide attacks.	尽管据称巴基斯坦政府在某些部族地区对巴基斯坦塔利班发动了攻势，但不久前的一部纪录片报道后者正忙于招募实施自杀性袭击的儿童。


Indeed, there were nearly 60 suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2009, compared to only two in 2002.	事实上，与2002年仅两起自杀性袭击事件相比，2009年发生在巴基斯坦的自杀性袭击事件已经接近60起之多。


According to Brian Fishman, a terrorism expert at the US Military Academy at West Point, the growth in suicide attacks poses a severe challenge to Pakistan, for a “whole milieu of militant groups, and individuals have come together ideologically…to embark on mission(s) that Al Qaeda set(s) for them.”	美国西点军校恐怖问题专家布赖恩·菲什曼认为，自杀性袭击的增加已经严重威胁到巴基斯坦安全，因为“各式各样的激进组织和个人已经在共同意识形态影响下走到一起…着手完成基地组织交付的任务。 ”


Bruce Riedel, the Afghanistan-Pakistan policy coordinator on Obama’s National Security Council, stresses that Al Qaeda's growing cooperation with the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and other like-minded groups is the most dangerous development in the effort to reduce global terrorism.	奥巴马国家安全委员会阿富汗－巴基斯坦政策协调员布鲁斯·里德尔强调指出，基地组织与阿富汗塔利班、巴基斯坦塔利班、虔诚军和其他志同道合的组织越来越广泛的合作是打击全球恐怖主义中出现的最危险的倾向。


“The notion that you can somehow selectively resolve the Al Qaeda problem while ignoring the larger jihadist sea in which [Al Qaeda] swims has failed in the past and will fail in the future,” Riedel argues.	里德尔认为，“认为在忽视为[基地组织]提供土壤的总体圣战环境的同时能够以某种方式选择性解决基地组织问题的观念无论在过去和将来都不会取得成功。 ”


Given this analysis, however, Obama’s “Afghanistan-oriented” policy is doomed to failure.	鉴于这一分析，奥巴马“以阿富汗为导向”的政策注定难逃失败的厄运。


The US would certainly like Pakistan to eliminate the leadership of the Taliban, both Afghan and Pakistani, but will not lean too heavily on Pakistan’s rulers to accomplish this goal.	美国当然希望巴基斯坦能消灭阿富汗和巴基斯坦的塔利班领袖，但绝不会过多依靠巴基斯坦统治者来实现这一目标。


The price to be paid for this political squeamishness is exacted in blood.	这种政治神经质所要付出的代价已经融化在血液之中。


Ambassador Hilaly has pointed to the way forward: “To succeed today, it (is) essential that first and foremost the power of the armed groups within Pakistan be broken.	伊拉利大使已经指明了前进的道路： 要想争取胜利，关键是要首先破除巴基斯坦武装组织的力量。


Without an all-out effort to do so, the terrorized population will not lend us support.”	如果不在这方面全力以赴，被恐怖分子吓得惊魂未定的民众就不会为我们伸出援手。


But the US, let alone the Pakistani government, may not have the will to act with such determination.	” 可无论美国还是巴基斯坦政府可能都没有决心这样做。


The Talmud and Greek Debt	犹太法典与希腊债务


BUENOS AIRES – There are two ways to look at Greece’s majestically unsustainable sovereign-debt mountain. There is, first, a pragmatic and short-term perspective, which focuses on ensuring some form of orderly restructuring (possibly for other vulnerable European states as well) without bringing down the eurozone.	发自布宜诺斯艾利斯——面对希腊手上堆积如山而又无以为继的主权债务，我们可以用两种方式来解读：首先是以一种实用主义并注重短期效应的视角，着眼于确保在不危害欧元区的情况下实现某种形式的有序重建（这也适用于其他受灾国家）。


And there is a “moral” perspective, which focuses on the nature of debt and on the long-term economic consequences of failing to honor it.	其二则是一种“道德”视角，将目光放在债务的本质以及不尊重这一本质所造成的长期经济后果之上。


Neither perspective is wrong; on the contrary, the problem is how to reconcile them.	这两种视角都是对的； 问题只是如何将两者协调一致。


Indeed, failure to do so appears to explain why the official response to the Greek debt crisis has been so inadequate.	而事实上也正是在这一点上的失败揭示了官方对希腊债务危机的应对何以如此失当。


In these circumstances, the Talmud, the ancient repository of Jewish legal commentary – and one of the oldest sources of human thought on morality and economic activity – might hold the key.	在这类情况下，犹太法典（Talmud）这部古代犹太法律评论的宝库（也是记载人类在道德和经济活动方面思想成果的最古老著作之一）可能会带给我们答案。


An oft-quoted passage provides a fresh, if not exactly new, perspective on Greece’s debt and the best way to address it.	在希腊债务以及何为最佳应对方案的问题上，该书中一段经常被引用的话就提供了一个新鲜（或许也不算新）的视角。


The passage concerns sales, divorces, and offerings, and specifies that these acts are legally valid only if a person performs them voluntarily.	这段话是关于买卖，离婚和赠与行为的，并列明这些行为只有在行为人自愿的情况下才有法律效力。


Nevertheless, under certain circumstances, courts may force an individual until he says that he is, indeed, willing.	而在某种情况下，法庭可能会不断向一个人施加压力，直到他声明这些行为确实是出于本人意愿为止。


The verse says, literally, “We (the court) force him until he says that he wants to do it willingly.”	该段话原文如下：“我们（法庭）会强迫他，直到他说出这是自愿的为止。


So, “in divorces (if the man refuses to grant it), we exercise force on him until he says ‘I want to do it voluntarily.’”	”因此“在（男方不愿承认的）离婚案件中，我们会使用强制手段迫使他说出‘这是我自愿的’”。


Similarly, if a court forces a person to sell his property, the sale is valid because it is considered to have been carried out voluntarily.	同样，如果一个法庭强制一个人出售自己财产，这种出售行为也是有效的，因为这已经被认为是自愿的行为。


Understanding this apparent contradiction sheds light on the controversy surrounding the question of private bondholders’ involvement in the Greek rescue package.	而只要理解了上面这种明显的矛盾说法，就能在围绕私人债券持有者卷入希腊救助计划的争议带来了一线解决的曙光。


It is argued that, to avoid a default, private creditors should agree to shoulder part of the cost of the bailout.	有人说为了避免违约，私人债权人应当同意承担一部分援助成本。


But how does one impose a financial loss on bondholders without it being classified by credit-rating agencies as a default?	但在国债尚未被信用评级机构判定为违约的情况下又如何能使国债持有人承担经济损失？


The prevailing answer is that one coerces bondholders to accept the deal “voluntarily.”	当前的答案就是迫使这些持有人“自愿”接受这笔交易。


One could dismiss this dispute as being mere rhetoric.	有人可以将这样的争论视为诡辩。


But, using the Talmudic logic, one can also show that there are mechanisms that can – and should – be used to place pressure on the parties in the interest of obtaining superior voluntary outcomes.	但遵照犹太法典的逻辑，也可以发现有一些机制可以（也应当）被用来向那些团体施加压力，从而获得较高层次的自愿性成果所带来的好处。


There are two preponderant interpretations of the Talmudic passage. One argues that coercion can change minds.	对于犹太法典的这段话有两种比较流行的解读，其一认为强制行为可以改变观点。


When a court forces an individual until he surrenders and says that he wants to follow orders, his compliant actions are to be considered voluntary, because, ultimately, he has made the conscious decision to agree.	当一个法庭强制一个人直到他妥协并声明愿意接受命令之时，他顺从的行为就被视为是自愿的，因为最终他在意识上已经做出了同意的决定。


While technically correct, this is a ruthless interpretation, since this type of “willing” behavior is bound to leave resentment.	这个说法虽然在技术上解释得通，但这也是一个残忍的解读，因为这种“自愿”行为注定将引发当事人的不满情绪。


A more benign interpretation, based on the collective-action principle, envisages the court as instrumental in attaining a superior welfare equilibrium.	而另一个更温和的解读则基于集体行为原则，将法庭假设为一个为了实现更高层次福利均衡的工具。


Individuals know fundamentally what is good for them and for society, but they are often hesitant to act accordingly, owing to fear, embarrassment, or, very often, the belief that their actions will not be worthwhile if others do not follow in their footsteps.	每个人在本质上都知道什么是对自身和社会有益的，但他们之所以不去动手实施那些有益行为，就是出于恐惧，尴尬或经常以为如果没人追随的话就是不值得。


The court, according to this view, provides the coordinating mechanism, eliminating free riders and forcing all parties to an outcome that makes everybody better off.	根据这一观点，法庭其实提供了相关协调机制，消灭那些占集体便宜的人并迫使所有团体携手取得一个能改善所有人境况的成果。


Thus, individual decisions, though extracted under pressure, become, when assessing the outcome, truly voluntary.	因此个人决定虽然是在压力下做出的，却在评估成果时成为了完全自愿的行为。


Seen in this light, unilateral schemes, such as the original German proposal (forcing maturities on Greek debt to be voluntarily extended for several years) are only voluntary under the ruthless interpretation.	在这一解决问题的曙光下。 类似德国最初提出的方案（强迫债券人将希腊债务的到期日自愿延后数年）这样的单方面解决方案只有在残忍的解读之下才会变得自愿。


In initiatives of this sort, agreement is obtained reluctantly and pressure could provoke harsh responses.	在这类动议中，在犹豫和压力下达成的协议可能刺激过度反应。


Rating agencies are right in considering them a “selective” default that is bound to result in contagion – and, eventually, in widespread debt restructuring.	评级机构有理由认为这都是“选择性”违约并必将导致危机扩散——并最终导致广泛的债务重组。


The alternative is to seek a cooperative resolution, consistent with the benign interpretation of “forced willingness.” This can be achieved by adopting some features of the model used in Eastern Europe, known as the “Vienna Initiative.”	另一个手段则是寻找一个合作的解决方案，与“被迫自愿”的温和解读相一致，还可以通过采用东欧模式（也就是维也纳倡议）的某些特点来实现。


Some of the current proposal to deal “voluntarily” with the Greek debt goes some way in this direction.	最近出台的“自愿”处理希腊债务方案中也有某些条款采用了这条方针。


But the initiative is insufficient, because the three pillars of the Vienna model are basically missing.	但这个倡议也是无效的，因为它缺少了维也纳模式中的三大支柱。


The first pillar of that model is simultaneous involvement of all parties – the sovereign, bondholders and their governments, the European Central Bank, and international organizations – in designing the scheme from the start.	该模式的第一大支柱就是在开始设计拯救方案时就要同时包含所有团体——主权债务发行国，债务持有者及其所在国政府，欧洲央行，还有国际组织。


The second ingredient is proper incentives to participate, including direct financing from bondholders’ governments, using the resources that today finance the transfer of Greek debt from private to official hands.	第二个因素就是恰当的参与倡议，动用包括债务持有人所在国政府的直接资助在内的资源，将希腊债务从私人转入官方手中。


The third component is the exercise of suasion on bondholders to achieve maximum participation, obtain binding pre-commitments, and eliminate free riders.	第三个组成部分则是说服债券持有人去实现最大限度的参与，获取有约束力的事前承诺，并消灭那些占便宜的人。


Since this scheme would imply losses for bondholders, substantial official muscle and peer pressure is needed.	因为这个方案将会给债务持有人带来损失，因此足够的官方强制措施和同行业压力也是有必要的。


But gaining time for a more orderly resolution, mitigating contagion, and reducing the size of an eventual write-down do indeed add up to a superior outcome.	但为一个更加有序方案的出台争取时间，减少危机扩散，并压缩最终违约的规模也确实能为实现一个更高层次成果添砖加瓦。


Therefore, under this model – and despite the initial pressure – the behavior of bondholders could be considered truly voluntary.	因此，在这一模式下（抛开最初的压力不提）债券持有人的行为可以被认为是完全自愿的。


And, while rating agencies might still regard a Vienna-type outcome as a default, the Talmudic sages show us why a more thoughtful classification is required.	同时，虽然评级机构可能依然将会一个类似维也纳式的结果视作违约，但犹太先贤则告诉了我们为何需要一个更加深思熟虑的评级。


The Tea Party’s Modest Proposal	茶党最谦卑的提议


WASHINGTON, DC – America’s Tea Party has a simple fiscal message: the United States is broke.	华盛顿——美国茶党的财政主张很简单：合众国已经破产了。


This is factually incorrect – US government securities remain one of the safest investments in the world – but the claim serves the purpose of dramatizing the federal budget and creating a great deal of hysteria around America’s current debt levels. This then produces the fervent belief that government spending must be cut radically, and now.	实际并非如此——美国政府债券仍然是全世界最安全的投资之一，但这样的主张还是达到了效果：将联邦预算问题戏剧化并掀起了一场围绕美国当前债务水平的公共兴奋，从而使很多人相信，美国政府应该大幅削减支出，并且从现在就开始。


There are legitimate fiscal issues that demand serious discussion, including how to control growth in health-care spending and how best to structure tax reform.	需要严肃讨论的正当财政话题不少，包括如何控制医保支出增长和如何使税收改革达到结构最优。


But the Tea Party faction of the Republican Party cares more about small government than anything else: its members insist, above all, that federal tax revenue never be permitted to exceed 18% of GDP.	但对共和党中的茶党派来说，小政府是压倒一切的第一要务：他们固执地认为，最重要的问题是，联邦税收岁入绝不能超过GDP的18%。


Their historical antecedent is America’s anti-revenue Whiskey Rebellion in 1794, not the original anti-British, pro-representation Boston Tea Party in 1773.	追溯其历史渊源，其实茶党的先辈并不是1773年反英国、要求代表权的原始波士顿茶党，而是1794年反增税的威士忌叛乱（Whiskey Rebellion）。


Most importantly, their tactics have proven massively destructive of wealth in the US.	最重要的是，茶党提出的方针已被证明对美国的财富具有极大破坏力。


Since the prolonged showdown over the budget began earlier this year, the stock market has lost about 20% of its value (roughly $10 trillion).	自从早些时候预算之争进入迟迟悬而未决的摊牌阶段以来，股市已经跌去了20%市值（大约10万亿美元）。


In effect, the Tea Party is working hard to reduce publicly funded social benefits – including pensions and Medicare – even as its methods dramatically reduce the value of private wealth now and in the future.	事实上，茶党所采取的方法将极大减少当前和未来的私人财富，饶是如此，他们依然在费尽心思削减包括退休金和医保在内的依赖公共资金的社会福利项目。


Part of the Tea Party’s founding myth, of course, is that smaller government will lead to faster growth and greater prosperity for all.	当然，在茶党的原教旨中，小政府可以为所有人带来更快的增长和更大的繁荣。


Never mind that the eye-popping growth projections in Representative Paul Ryan’s budget plan, for example, are utterly implausible; these projections matter politically, because, without them, the full sting of Ryan’s proposed Medicare cuts would be readily apparent.	别管保罗·瑞恩（Paul Ryan）众议员预算计划中令人瞠目的增长预测到底站不站得住脚，它们具有政治上的重要性，因为如果没有这些如厕，瑞恩的削减医保大骗局就会暴露无遗。


Standard & Poor’s has received some justified criticism for the analysis behind its recent decision to downgrade US government debt; after all, there was little economic news that could explain the move’s timing.	标准普尔最近调降了美国国债评级，这一决定所依据的分析受到了不少有理的批评； 说到底，标普这样做并没有多少经济学上的理由。


But S&P’s assessment of the political situation is on target: by creating a dysfunctional paralysis at the heart of government, the Tea Party has shown that it is willing to impose dramatic costs on the broader economy and to ensure significantly slower growth.	但标普切中的是对政治状况的评估：通过让政府核心陷入瘫痪，茶党的意图已经昭然若揭了：他们想给更广泛的经济带来重大成本、确保增长大大降速。


Confrontation and brinkmanship have become the new watchwords of American politics, even when the US government’s legal ability to pay its debts is on the line, owing to the Tea Party’s ideological rigidity.	拜茶党僵化的意识形态所赐，尽管美国政府偿还其债务的法定能力一切正常，但对峙和边缘政策已经成为美国政坛的新暗语了。


And the tone of political debate, not surprisingly, has become much nastier.	毫不奇怪，政治争论的论调也变得更加乌烟瘴气了。


By signing a pledge not to raise taxes, Tea Party representatives have credibly committed themselves not to acquiesce in any middle-of-the-road compromise.	通过发誓绝不增税，茶党代表做出了信誓旦旦的表态——绝不会与任何中间道路妥协。


If they break this pledge, presumably they will face defeat in the next round of Republican Party primaries.	如果自食其言，他们很有可能就会在下一轮共和党总统初选中败北。


So, while a budget deal would technically be easy to achieve, it looks politically impossible in the near term.	因此，尽管预算协议在技术上并不难达成，但从政治上看，至少在近期绝无可能发生。


Indeed, while Congress and the Republican Party have become less popular during 2011, support for the Tea Party has remained remarkably constant, at around 30% of the population.	事实上，2011年国会和共和党的支持率都在下降，但茶党支持率令人瞩目地稳定在30%左右。


Its tactics thus appear politically sustainable, at least through the 2012 elections.	因此，其策略在似乎颇具政治可持续性，至少在2012年总统选举中是如此。


Perhaps the most damaging outcome of these tactics is to take countercyclical fiscal policy off the table completely.	这些策略最具破坏性的结果或许是将反周期财政政策彻底从政策清单上抹去。


Regardless of what happens to the global economy in the weeks and months ahead, it is inconceivable that any kind of meaningful fiscal stimulus would get through the House of Representatives.	无论未来几周和几个月全球经济形势如何，众议院都不会有任何有意义的财政刺激方案。


It remains to be seen whether the US Federal Reserve will also feel constrained by the political mood on Capitol Hill.	国会山的政治情绪是否会束缚美联储的手脚还有待观察。


Clearly, influential Tea Party supporters would strongly resist any attempt now by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to find unorthodox ways to run a more expansionary monetary policy.	显然，对于美联储主席伯南克现在所抛出的任何按正统路子进一步扩张货币政策的方案，具有较大影响力的茶党支持者都会大力抵制。


And, as for protecting the financial system against disaster, the current majority on the House Financial Services Committee is clear – they favor use of the bankruptcy system when megabanks get into serious trouble.	而在保护金融体系使其免于陷入灾难的问题上，当前国会金融服务委员会的多数意见是显而易见的：他们支持在巨型银行陷入真正麻烦时启动破产体系。


If the eurozone crisis continues to spiral out of control, the US should expect to see Lehman or near-Lehman-type collapses among exposed financial institutions.	如果欧元区危机继续发展直至失控，那么美国就得准备好看到金融机构中再次出现雷曼或近似雷曼倒闭的事件。


The irony of the Tea Party revolt, of course, is that it undermines the private sector more than it reins in “big government.”	当然，茶党叛逆的讽刺之处在于，其给私人部门造成的危害比其控制“大政府”的好处更甚。


The S&P downgrade resulted in a “flight to quality,” meaning that investors bought US government debt – thus increasing its price and lowering the rate that the federal government pays to borrow.	标普降级造成了“投资安全转移”的结果，这意味着投资者大举购买美国国债，进而抬高美国国债价格，降低联邦政府的借贷成本。


It was the value of the stock market that fell sharply – which makes sense, given that counter-cyclical policy is now severely constrained.	股市市值发生了暴跌——在反周期政策被严重束缚住手脚的现状下，这可不是件小事。


The government part of the credit system has been strengthened, relatively speaking, by developments over the past few months.	相对而言，通过几个月来的发展，信用体系的政府部分已经得到了强化。


It is the private sector – where investment and entrepreneurial activity are needed to generate growth and employment – that has taken a beating.	而需要靠投资和企业家活动来创造增长和就业的私人部门则遭到了重创。


Unless and until America’s private sector recovers, investment and job creation will continue to stagnate.	除非美国私人部门能有所复苏，否则投资和就业岗位的创造就一直会停滞。


But today’s atmosphere of fear and aggressive budget tactics are combining to undermine private-sector confidence and spending power.	但在如今的恐慌氛围和激进预算策略的共同作用下，私人部门信心和消费力正在受到摧残。


As Jonathan Swift put it in 1727, “Party is the madness of many, for the gain of the few.”	正如乔纳森·斯威夫特（Jonathan Swift）1727年所指出的：“所谓党，就是大批人为之疯狂而极少数人从中渔利的东西。 ”


The Terror Next Door.	邻国恐怖袭击


NEW DELHI – The fallout from the terror attacks in Mumbai last week has already shaken India.	新德里－上个星期发生在孟买的恐怖袭击所暴露的问题，已经震惊了印度。


Deep and sustained anger across the country – at its demonstrated vulnerability to terror and at the multiple institutional failures that allowed such loss of life – has prompted the resignations of the Home Minister in the national government and the Chief Minister and his Deputy in the state of Maharashtra, of which Mumbai is the capital.	印度全国对恐怖袭击暴露出来的印度多么易于受到恐怖袭击和使这么多的人失去生命的多种制度缺陷，感到深深而持续的愤怒，这种愤怒情绪已经促使印度国家政府中的内政部长和以孟买为首府的马哈拉施特拉邦的首席部长及其副手辞职。


As evidence mounts that the attacks were planned and directed from Pakistani territory, calls for decisive action have intensified.	当证据显示恐怖袭击是在巴基斯坦境内策划和指挥的时，民众要求采取果断行动的呼吁更加强烈了。


But what can India do?	但是，印度能做什么呢？


The terrorists hit multiple targets in Mumbai, both literally and figuratively.	恐怖分子袭击了孟买的多个目标——从字面意义和象征意义上都是如此。


They caused death and destruction to Indians with near-impunity, searing India’s psyche, showing up the limitations of its security apparatus and humiliating its government.	他们在付出很小代价的情况下，给印度造成了伤亡和破坏，震撼了印度的灵魂，暴露了印度安全制度的局限性，羞辱了印度政府。


They dented the worldwide image of India as an emerging economic giant, a success story of the era of globalization and an increasing magnet for investors and tourists.	他们破坏了印度在全世界作为一个新兴经济巨人、全球化时代的成功典范以及对投资者和旅游者越来越有吸引力的形象。


Instead the world was made to see an insecure and vulnerable India, a “soft state” bedevilled by enemies who can strike it at will.	与此相对的是，他们让全世界看到了一个不安全和容易受到攻击的印度，一个因为敌人可以任意袭击它而感到痛苦的“软弱国家”。


That was not all.	恐怖袭击的影响还不仅仅只有这些。


By singling out Americans, British and Israelis for their malign attention, the terrorists extended the global Islamist war against “Jews and crusaders” to new territory.	为了引起世界对其邪恶的注意，恐怖分子通过将美国人、英国人和以色列人挑出来的方式，将反对“犹太人和十字军”的全球伊斯兰战争扩大到新的领土上。


As they dominated the world’s media for three gruesome days, the killers achieved a startling success for their cause, one that must have shaken anti-terrorist experts around the world, who now realize how easy it would be for ten men unafraid of death to hold any city in the world hostage.	因为恐怖分子在可怕的三天时间内占据着世界新闻媒体报道的头条，这些杀人犯在其“事业”上取得了令人吃惊的成功，这一成功肯定会震惊全世界的反恐专家； 现在这些专家意识到，对10个不怕死的人来说，劫持世界上的任何一座城市是多么的容易。


The interrogation of the one surviving terrorist, and evidence from satellite telephone intercepts and other intelligence, has led to an emerging international consensus that the attacks were masterminded by the Wahhabi-inspired Lashkar-e-Taiba, a terrorist group once patronized, protected and trained by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as a useful instrument in their country’s proxy war against India in Kashmir.	 对一个被活捉的恐怖分子的审讯，以及来自卫星电话拦截和其他情报的证据，已经使国际社会达成初步共识，恐怖袭击是由信奉瓦哈比教派的虔诚军策划的——巴基斯坦的国内情报局(ISI) 曾资助、保护和训练虔诚军，将其作为该国在克什米尔和印度的代理战争中的有利工具。


Though banned by General Pervez Musharraf under duress after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the Lashkar (which considers the United States, Israel and India “existential enemies of Islam”) simply regrouped under a different name and is even more powerful than before.	虽然在2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击之后，佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫将军迫于压力取缔了这个组织，但是，虔诚军（他们认为美国、以色列和印度是“伊斯兰现存的敌人”）仅仅改了一下名字，就重新组织起来，并且比以前更有实力。


The Pakistani military finds militant outfits useful tools to bleed their adversaries in India and Afghanistan, and has shown little inclination to clamp down on them, despite years of assurances that action would be taken to curb their activities.	巴基斯坦军方发现武装分子是血洗他们在印度和阿富汗的敌人的有利工具，并且没有显示任何限制他们的倾向——尽管巴基斯坦多年来一直保证会采取措施来控制这些武装分子的行为。


In July this year, American intelligence sources publicly revealed that the suicide-bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul had been conducted at the behest of the ISI.	在今年七月，美国情报消息来源公开显示，驻喀布尔印度大使馆的自杀炸弹袭击是按照巴基斯坦国内情报局(ISI)的吩咐进行的。


This episode, along with two climbdowns by Pakistan’s government after public attempts to curb the ISI had been spurned by the Army, confirmed that the civilian government in Islamabad is too weak to challenge the all-powerful military.	这一事件，和巴基斯坦在公开试图遏制国内情报局(ISI)被军队拒绝后的两次倒退一起，证实了伊斯兰堡的民选政府是非常软弱的，无法挑战权力巨大的军队。


So if the US and India demand, as they will, that Pakistan disband the Lashkar and similar terrorist outfits that have enjoyed military patronage in the past, dismantle their training facilities, freeze their bank accounts (before they are simply transferred to another name) and arrest their leaders, they will face a typically Pakistani conundrum: the military isn’t willing, and the civilian government isn’t able.	所以，如果美国和印度——他们将要这样做——要求巴基斯坦解散过去受到军队保护的虔诚军和类似的恐怖机构，拆除它们的训练设施，冻结它们的银行账户（在这些账户被转到其他名下之前）以及逮捕其领导人，他们会面临一个典型的巴基斯坦难题：军队不愿意，而民选政府没有这个能力。


India’s government, which has reacted to previous terrorist outrages with calm and restraint, has no choice this time but to respond decisively.	对之前的恐怖分子暴行反应镇定和克制的印度政府，在这次除了坚决做出回应之外别无选择。


Anything that smacks of temporizing and appeasement will further inflame the public a few months before national elections are due.	任何带有见风使舵和绥靖政策意味的东西，在印度全国大选前的几个月，都会进一步激怒公众。


But India’s government has few good options.	但是印度政府几乎没有什么好的选择。


An earlier assault on India’s Parliament in December 2001 by the Pakistan-based militant organization Jaish-e-Muhammad, nearly triggered a full-scale war between the two countries.  In the end India pulled back its deployment on the border.	由基地设在巴基斯坦的拉什卡民兵组织和穆哈迈德圣战组织，早在2001年12月对印度议会大厦进行的一次袭击，几乎引发了两国的全面战争。 最后以印度撤回了其在两国边境的军事部署告终。


Though some hotheads in India now call for military action, including strikes on terrorist facilities in Pakistani territory, this would certainly lead to a war that neither side could win.	 虽然一些鲁莽的印度人现在呼吁印度政府采取包括袭击巴基斯坦境内恐怖分子的设施的军事行动，但是，这肯定会导致一场两败俱伤的战争。


If anything, such an Indian reaction would play into the hands of the terrorists, by strengthening anti-Indian nationalism in Pakistan and diverting forces away from the Afghan borderlands, where they are aiding NATO’s fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.	其唯一的结果是，印度这样的反应，会通过增强巴基斯坦的反印民族情绪，转移在阿富汗边界的军事力量——他们正在那里帮助北约打击塔利班和基地组织——的方式，使事情对恐怖分子有利。


For this reason, the US is likely to press India not to contemplate forceful retaliation that could undermine America’s objectives in Afghanistan.	由于以上的原因，美国可能会向印度施压，让其不要考虑实施会破坏美国在阿富汗的目标的武力报复行动 。


And since both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, the risk of military action spiralling out of control is too grave for any responsible government to contemplate.	而且，由于印度和巴基斯坦都拥有核武器，军事行动失去控制后，风险是非常严重的，任何负责任的政府都不应该考虑这样的军事行动。


Yet inaction is not an option.	然而，什么都不做也不是印度的选择。


So India is likely to ask the US to use its undoubted clout with Pakistan – the US is a huge donor of both military and economic assistance to its near-bankrupt ally – to demand tougher action against the militants on its territory.	因此，印度可能会要求美国使用其对巴基斯坦毫无疑问的影响力——美国对面临破产的巴基斯坦提供了巨大的军事和经济援助——要求巴基斯坦对在其领土上的武装分子采取更加强硬的措施。


The governments of the victims of the Mumbai massacre are also likely to demand accountability from Islamabad.	孟买恐怖袭击受害者所在国家的政府，也可能会要求伊斯兰堡承担责任。


Pakistan is likely to face disagreeable diplomatic and economic consequences for inaction.	巴基斯坦可能会因为它对这件事情无所作为而面临外交和经济困境。


But excessive pressure may only bring down the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, who is personally inclined towards rapprochement with India but who knows that every one of his civilian predecessors has been overthrown.	但是，过大的压力可能只会压垮巴基斯坦总统阿西夫•阿里•扎尔达里的政府——阿西夫•阿里•扎尔达里本人倾向于与印度发展睦邻友好关系，但是对其所有的民选前任都被推翻的事实非常清楚。


Contemplating such options, the world may be forced to admit its impotence.	想想这些选择，世界可能会被迫承认它的无能为力。


That will have a chilling result: as long as a military-dominated Pakistan continues, willingly or helplessly, to harbour the perpetrators of Islamist terror, what happened in Mumbai could happen again -- anywhere.	这将产生一个令人寒心的结果：只要在军方控制下的巴基斯坦继续——不管是有意的，还是无能为力的——给伊斯兰恐怖主义作恶者提供避风港，那么，在孟买发生的恐怖袭击还可能在任何地方再次发生。


The Terror Next Door	邻国的恐怖主义


LONDON – In a prominent hadith, the Prophet Mohammed said: “If disorder threatens, take refuge in Yemen.”	伦敦－在一个知名圣训中，先知穆罕默德说，“如果你们受到了动荡的威胁，就去也门避难吧。


The Prophet was referring to the prosperous and civilized Yemen.  But today disorder and radicalization in Yemen are beginning to infect Saudi Arabia, and thus the safety of the world’s largest oil producer.	”先知在这里指的是繁荣而文明的也门。 然而，现在，也门的混乱和激进已经开始侵染沙特阿拉伯，并影响到这个世界上最大的石油生产国的安全了。


The Prophet’s hadith about Yemen has enjoyed new resonance ever since the 1980’s, when Saudi Arabia – in line with American policy – sought to export domestic dissenters, most prominently Osama bin Laden, a Yemeni of Saudi birth, to fight Soviet infidels in Afghanistan.	从20世纪80年代以来，当沙特阿拉伯按照美国政策，寻求将国内的反对者——其中最出名的就是出生在沙特阿拉伯的也门人奥萨玛·本·拉登，输入阿富汗与苏联异教徒进行战斗的时候，先知穆罕默德关于也门的圣训，就引起了人们新的共鸣。


Although dissent was mostly diverted to Afghanistan, bin Laden’s most trusted companions (his wife, too) have remained mainly in Yemen.	虽然沙特将大部分反对者都转移到了阿富汗，但是，本·拉登最受其信任的同伙（以及他的妻子）大部分仍然留在了也门。


In the wake of the Taliban’s ouster in Afghanistan, bin Laden and his followers have come to regard Yemen, alongside Pakistan, as a haven.	在塔利班被逐出阿富汗之后，本·拉登和他的追随者们渐渐将也门和巴基斯坦作为了他们的避风港。


Indeed, Yemen is now a bubbling cauldron of jihadis who have flocked there because it, like Afghanistan and Pakistan, has weak, easily manipulated state institutions.	事实上，因为也门与阿富汗和巴基斯坦一样，国家机构软弱而且容易受到操纵，所以，许多伊斯兰圣战分子聚集到了也门，使也门成为伊斯兰圣战分子日益膨胀的根据地。


US President Barack Obama’s recent order to shut down the Guantánamo Bay detention facility has made the problem of Yemen’s weakness a leading international issue.	美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马最近下令关闭关塔那摩湾的拘留设施，这使也门国家机构的软弱问题成为了一个重要的国际问题。


One-third of the Guantánamo detainees are Yemeni, but Yemen cannot guarantee the United States that the detainees will be controlled effectively if they are returned home.	关押在关塔那摩的人中，有三分之一的人是也门人，但是，也门不敢向美国保证，如果这些被关押者被送回了也门国内，也门能够有效地控制他们。


This fear is real.	这种担忧是很现实的。


Many previously released Guantánamo inmates have disappeared underground.	许多以前从关塔那摩释放出来的人，已经秘密地消失了。


Saudi Arabia, unlike Yemen, has supposedly created a “model” system for reintegrating and re-educating Guantánamo returnees.	沙特阿拉伯与也门不同，它似乎已经建立了一个重建和改造从关塔那摩释放回来的被关押人员的“模范”制度。


The Al Munasaha rehabilitation center is supposed to “cure” jihadi passions, and Saudi returnees from Guantánamo who spend time at Al Munasaha are later offered jobs and wives.	沙特阿拉伯利用木纳萨哈改造中心（Al Munasaha rehabilitation center）来“矫治”这些从关塔那摩回国的人员的圣战激情，并且，沙特在以后会为那些在木纳萨哈改造中心接受过一段时间“矫治”的沙特籍被关押人员，提供工作和配偶。


But many of them relapse and escape to Yemen.	但是，许多从关塔那摩回来的人故态萌发，再次陷入了圣战的狂热之中，并逃到了也门。


Most notorious among these recidivists is Abu Sufyan Al Shihri, now “Deputy Leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.”	这些人中最臭名昭著的是阿卜·苏帆·新哈里（Abu Sufyan Al Shihri），他现在是“阿拉伯半岛基地组织的副领导人”。


Seven other Saudi jihadis who escaped to Yemen are also known to be active in Al Qaeda there.	据悉，另外七个逃到也门的沙特阿拉伯伊斯兰圣战分子在也门的基地组织中，也很活跃。


Thus the two largest countries on the Arabian peninsula – Saudi Arabia, the biggest in terms of landmass and oil wealth, and Yemen in terms of population – are now locked in life-and-death struggles with internal enemies.	因此，阿拉伯半岛上两个最大的国家——从大陆面积和石油储量方面来讲最大的沙特阿拉伯和人口最多的国家也门——现在在和内部的敌人进行生死攸关的斗争上，紧紧地连在了一起。


The paradox is that, though the threat to both countries is the same, each is worsening the outlook for the other by the policies they are pursuing.	然而，在这里存在的悖论是，虽然圣战分子对沙特阿拉伯和也门造成的威胁是一样的，但是，这两个国家却都因为其执行的政策，而使对方打击恐怖分子的前景变得恶化。


For example, in the 1980’s, millions of Yemeni men worked in the Kingdom. Remittance income formed a big part of Yemen’s budget.	例如，在20世纪80年代，有几百万也门人在沙特阿拉伯工作，他们汇回也门国内的汇款，构成了也门预算的重要组成部分。


But in 1991, 800,000 Yemenis were expelled because they were seen as a domestic security threat in the run-up to the first Gulf war.	但是，在1991年，在第一次海湾战争开始前，由于沙特阿拉伯认为这些在沙特工作的也门人是其国内安全的一个威胁，所以将 800,000个也门人驱逐出境。


Since then, Yemeni labor has been banned from Saudi Arabia.	从那以后，沙特阿拉伯就一直禁止也门劳工进入沙特国内。


Embittered and unemployed, young Yemeni men often become subject to another Saudi policy gone awry – its propagation for export of the Sunni Wahhabi form of Islam.	而且，愤怒而失业的年青也门男子经常成为另一个沙特错误政策的目标——沙特向他们宣传输出伊斯兰逊尼派瓦哈比教义。


With new Wahhabi madrasas popping up everywhere in Yemen because of Saudi financial support, it is small wonder that the number of Yemeni jihadis has grown exponentially.	由于沙特阿拉伯的资金支持，新建的瓦哈比宗教学校在也门遍地开花，所以也门伊斯兰圣战分子的人数会急剧增长，就没什么好奇怪的了。


But Yemen, too, is engaged in its own destructive policies.	但是，也门也在执行破坏性的政策。


President Ali Abdullah Salih has regularly used Yemeni Wahhabis to defeat his domestic opponents – first the Communists, then the Zaidis, and then the Huthis.	也门总统阿里·阿卜杜拉·萨利赫（Ali Abdullah Salih）经常利用也门的瓦哈比教派来打击其国内的竞争对手——开始是共产主义者，后来是扎伊迪什叶派（Zaidis），最后是什叶派青年运动（Huthis）。


Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Yemen is unlike that with any other Arab country.	沙特阿拉伯与也门的关系和它与其他阿拉伯国家的关系都不同；


The two countries are joined through historical, ethnic, and tribal ties, yet neither has the means to resolve popular resentments and resistance.	沙特和也门通过历史、种族和部落关系紧紧联系��一起，然而，这两个国家却谁都没有解决它们间普遍存在的憎恨和相互抵制的途径。


Saudi Arabia’s traditional “soft power” foreign policy tools – lavish spending of oil money and da’wa, “the Call” – are no longer effective. Building fences and sending helicopters to police the borders will not be sufficient, and the idea that jihadis can be rehabilitated is a myth.	沙特阿拉伯传统的“软实力”外交政策工具——大量支出石油金钱和进行宗教号召——不再有效了，在沙特阿拉伯和也门边境地区建立围栏和派出直升机巡视也不够了，而且，有人认为可以将伊斯兰圣战分子改造过来的观点，也是不切实际的。


No medicine will work if, when the patient is released, he encounters the same virus: institutionalized Wahhabism.	如果一个人被释放后会遇到同样的病毒——体制化的瓦哈比教义，这个人就是无药可救的。


Yet there are things the Saudis can do to vaccinate themselves, and Yemen, from fanaticism.	然而，沙特阿拉伯还是可以做一些事情来使自己和也门获得对宗教狂热的免疫力。


The tentative moves toward liberalization that King Abdullah has made over the past two years need to be accelerated, made more daring, and become more effective in removing the Wahhabi ideology as an incubator for radicalism.	阿卜杜拉国王在过去两年里进行的自由主义尝试行动需要加速，也要更加大胆，在清除作为激进主义孵化器的瓦哈比意识形态上要变得更为有效。


This should not be impossible, because both Saudi Arabia and Yemen have moderate, indigenous Islamic traditions that can be mobilized against jihadism.	实现这一点不是完全不可能的，因为沙特阿拉伯和也门都具有温和的固有伊斯兰传统，它们可以利用这一传统来反对伊斯兰圣战主义。


If given the financial support that the Wahhabis received, these forces could reverse the current drift to fanaticism.	如果这些力量获得了像瓦哈比教派那样多的资金支持，它们就可以逆转当前在沙特和也门国内的宗教狂热趋势。


Both King Abdullah and President Salih understand the problem; they need to stop using the old tactics and grasp the strategic need for change.	阿卜杜拉国王和萨利赫总统都明白这个问题； 他们要做的是停止使用过时的策略，抓住变革的战略需要。


The first change is economic.	沙特阿拉伯和也门要进行的第一个变革是经济方面的。


Instead of exporting radicalism, Saudi Arabia must start importing Yemeni manpower by lifting its ban on Yemeni workers.	沙特阿拉伯应该解除对也门工人进入沙特工作的禁令，开始进口也门劳动力，而不是向也门输入激进主义。


Yemeni officials have also requested admission to the Gulf Cooperation Council.	也门官员也曾经要求加入波斯湾合作理事会。


Up to now, GCC leaders have spurned Yemen’s membership for the same reasons that the European Union fears admitting Turkey: Yemen would instantly become the bloc’s most populous country.	然而，到目前为止，出于和欧盟对土耳其加入欧盟同样的担心，波斯湾合作理事会拒绝了也门的加入请求：也门会立即成为理事会中人口最多的国家。


Indeed, Yemen’s population exceeds that of all six GCC members – Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia – combined.	事实上，也门的人口超过了六个波斯湾合作理事会成员国——卡塔尔、科威特、阿拉伯 联合酋长国、巴林、阿曼和沙特阿拉伯——人口的总和。


But if Yemen’s masses are not to become more radicalized, they will need to be incorporated into an economic zone that offers hope for the future.	但是，如果该地区的国家要防止也门民众的进一步激进化，它们就需要将也门的民众融入一个可以为他们的未来带来希望的经济区域。


The GCC can and must assume that role.	波斯湾合作理事会能够并且必须承担起这个责任。


Yemen is strategically important, not only for Saudi Arabia, but for the world, because it is the only country on the Arabian Peninsula from which oil can reach the open seas without passing through a narrow strait – either the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal.	在战略上，也门不只是对沙特阿拉伯很重要，它对全世界都很重要，因为它是阿拉伯半岛上唯一一个石油可以不通过狭窄的海峡——不管是霍尔木兹海峡还是苏伊士运河——直接到达公海的国家。


To endanger this passage is to endanger the world economy’s energy lifeline.	对也门这个通道造成危害就是危害世界经济的能源生命线。


When considering Yemen’s future, therefore, the stakes could hardly be higher.	因此，在人们考虑也门的未来的时候，怎么强调这其中的利害关系都不过分。


The Threat of German Amnesia	德国健忘症威胁


BERLIN – Europe’s situation is serious – very serious.	柏林—欧洲的情况很严重，非常严重。


Who would have thought that British Prime Minister David Cameron would call on eurozone governments to muster the courage to create a fiscal union (with a common budget and tax policy and jointly guaranteed public debt)?	谁会想到英国首相卡梅伦会呼吁欧元区政府拿出勇气建立一个财政联盟（共同预算、共同税制，并共同担保公共债务）？


And Cameron also argues that deeper political integration is the only way to stop the breakup of the euro.	卡梅伦还指出，深化政治一体化是组织欧元崩溃的唯一办法。


A conservative British prime minister!	这可是保守的英国首相！


The European house is ablaze, and Downing Street is calling for a rational and resolute response by the fire brigade.	欧洲大厦正在被大火吞噬，唐宁街正在呼吁让消防队理性、果断地解决问题。


Unfortunately, the fire brigade is being led by Germany, and its chief is Chancellor Angela Merkel.	不幸的是，消防队领导小组是德国，领导小组的组长则是其首相默克尔。


As a result, Europe continues to try to quench the fire with gasoline – German-enforced austerity – with the consequence that, in a mere three years, the eurozone’s financial crisis has become a European existential crisis.	结果，欧洲一直在抱薪救火——德国人一直在强推紧缩——其结果是，短短三年后，欧元区财政危机演变成了一场欧洲存亡危机。


Let’s not delude ourselves: if the euro falls apart, so will the European Union (the world’s largest economy), triggering a global economic crisis on a scale that most people alive today have never experienced.	我们不要被自己弄糊涂了：如果欧元崩溃，欧盟（世界第一大经济体）也将蹈其覆辙，引发一场当今世界绝大部分人不曾亲身体验过的全球经济危机。


Europe is on the edge of an abyss, and will surely tumble into it unless Germany – and France – alters course.	欧洲已经站在了悬崖边上，除非德国（以及法国）让它紧急转向，否则堕入不测之渊已不可避免。


The recent elections in France and Greece, together with local elections in Italy and continuing unrest in Spain and Ireland, have shown that the public has lost faith in the strict austerity forced upon them by Germany.	法国和希腊的最新大选，以及意大利的地方选举和西班牙和爱尔兰没完没了的政坛乱象表明，公众已经对德国人强加在他们头上的严厉紧缩失去了信任。


Merkel’s kill-to-cure remedy has run up against reality – and democracy.	默克尔破而后立的疗法站在了现实和民主的对立面。


We are once again learning the hard way that this kind of austerity, when applied in the teeth of a major financial crisis, leads only to depression.	我们再一次以沉重的代价了解到，这种紧缩如果在严重金融危机的当口实施只能导致萧条。


This insight should have been common knowledge; it was, after all, a major lesson of the austerity policies of President Herbert Hoover in the United States and Chancellor Heinrich Brüning in Weimar Germany in the early 1930’s.	这一洞见本应该是常识； 毕竟，20世纪30年代美国总统胡佛和魏玛德国首相布吕宁都为我们提供了这方面的前车之鉴。


Unfortunately, Germany, of all countries, seems to have forgotten it.	不幸的是，这一点大家都学会了，唯独被德国忘记了。


As a consequence, chaos looms in Greece, as does the prospect of subsequent bank runs in Spain, Italy, and France – and thus a financial avalanche that would bury Europe.	结果，混乱笼罩了希腊，西班牙、意大利和法国也很可能随之发生银行挤兑，从而引发葬送欧洲的金融雪崩？


And then?	然后呢？


Should we write off what more than two generations of Europeans have created – a massive investment in institution-building that has led to the longest period of peace and prosperity in the history of the continent?	我们要抹掉两代欧洲人所打下的江山吗？ 葬送掉费了巨大心血建立起来的造就了欧洲大陆历史上最长的和平与繁荣的制度基础吗？


One thing is certain: a breakup of the euro and the EU would entail Europe’s exit from the world stage.	有一点是肯定的：欧元和欧盟的崩溃将意味着欧洲退出世界舞台。


Germany’s current policy is all the more absurd in view of the bitter political and economic consequences that it would face.	德国的当前政策可谓荒谬之极，如果考虑到它将带来的政治和经济苦果的话。


It is up to Germany and France, Merkel and President François Hollande, to decide the future of our continent.	德国和法国，默克尔和法国总统奥朗德将决定欧洲大陆的未来。


Europe’s salvation now depends on a fundamental change in Germany’s economic-policy stance, and in France’s position on political integration and structural reforms.	眼下，拯救欧洲取决于德国经济政策立场和法国对政治一体化和结构性改革态度的根本转变。


France will have to say yes to a political union: a common government with common parliamentary control for the eurozone.	法国必须对政治联盟点头——一个掌管整个欧元区的具有共同议会的共同政府。


The eurozone’s national governments already are acting in unison as a de facto government to address the crisis.	在危机应对过程中，欧元区各国政府实际上已经形成了了一个联盟，成为了一个单一政府。


What is becoming increasingly true in practice should be carried forward and formalized.	在实践中日渐成为现实的东西应该顺水推舟并将其形式化。


Germany, for its part, will have to opt for a fiscal union.	至于德国，它必须同意财政联盟。


Ultimately, that means guaranteeing the eurozone’s survival with Germany’s economic might and assets: unlimited acquisition of the crisis countries’ government bonds by the European Central Bank, Europeanization of national debts via Eurobonds, and growth programs to avoid a eurozone depression and boost recovery.	最终，这意味着用德国的经济实力和资产保证欧元区的生存：由欧洲央行无限量购买危机国国债、通过欧元债券将各国国债欧洲化，以及出台避免欧元区陷入萧条并提振复苏的增长计划。


One can easily imagine the ranting in Germany about this kind of program: still more debt!	不难想象，德国人会对这一计划怨声载道：更多的债务！


Loss of control over our assets!	失去对我们的资产的控制权！


Inflation!	通货膨胀！


It just doesn’t work!	这根本就没用！


But it does work: Germany’s export-led growth is based on just such programs in the emerging countries and the US.	但这确实有用：德国的出口导向型增长之基石正是美国和新兴国家所采取的此类计划。


If China and America had not pumped partly debt-financed money into their economies beginning in 2009, the German economy would have taken a serious hit.	如果美国和中国不在2009年初将部分以债务融资得到的资金注入经济中，那么德国经济将会受到严重冲击。


Germans must now ask themselves whether they, who have profited the most from European integration, are willing to pay the price for it or would prefer to let it fail.	如今，德国人必须扪心自问：作为从欧洲一体化中受益最大的群体，他们是愿意为此出点血，还是宁愿坐视欧洲一体化夭折？


Beyond political and fiscal unification and short-term growth policies, Europeans urgently need structural reforms aimed at restoring Europe’s competitiveness.	除了政治和财政统一以及短期增长政策之外，欧洲继续旨在重塑竞争力的结构性改革。


Each of these pillars is needed if Europe is to overcome its existential crisis.	如果欧洲要想克服生存危机，这几大支柱缺一不可。


Do we Germans understand our pan-European responsibility?	我们德国人明白我们身上的泛欧洲责任吗？


It certainly does not look that way.	现在看来，显然不明白。


Indeed, rarely has Germany been as isolated as it is now.	事实上，德国几乎从未像现在那样孤立过。


Hardly anyone understands our dogmatic austerity policy, which goes against all experience, and we are considered largely off-course, if not heading into oncoming traffic.	几乎没有人理解我们一根筋的紧缩政策，这与历史经验完全背道而驰，大部分人认为，说轻了我们是偏离正道，说重了我们已经走火入魔了。


It is still not too late to change direction, but now we have only days and weeks, perhaps months, rather than years.	现在改变方向还为时未晚，但留给我们的时间只有几天、几周，也许是几个月，反正几年是肯定拖不起了。


Germany destroyed itself – and the European order – twice in the twentieth century, and then convinced the West that it had drawn the right conclusions.	20世纪，德国人曾两次摧毁了自己和欧洲秩序，后来又让西方相信他们找到了正确的路。


Only in this manner – reflected most vividly in its embrace of the European project – did Germany win consent for its reunification.	惟其如此——投入欧洲工程便是最生动的写照——德国人才赢得了世人对其重新统一的认可。


It would be both tragic and ironic if a restored Germany, by peaceful means and with the best of intentions, brought about the ruin of the European order a third time.	如果带着最良好的初衷以和平方式获得新生的德国第三次摧毁欧洲的秩序，那将是怎样的悲剧和讽刺！


Europe’s New Jewish Question	欧洲的新犹太问题


NEW YORK – In March 1936, Poland’s Sejm (the lower house of parliament) almost succeeded in outlawing shechita (slaughter according to Jewish law).	纽约—1936年3月，波兰色姆（议会下院）几乎成功地将犹太屠宰方式规定为非法。


Only the Polish Constitution prevented an outright ban.	最后靠着波兰宪法才避免了完全禁止。


Had the majority of legislators gotten their way, many of Poland’s 3.2 million Jews would have gone meatless.	如果立法者得逞，320万波兰犹太人中将有很多吃不到肉。


A few days ago, the ghosts of the past returned to the Sejm, when deputies rejected a government bill intended to keep religious slaughter legal.	几天前，这一过去的幽灵再一次回到了色姆，一些议员拒绝接受意在保证宗教屠宰合法的政府法案。


Even many of the bill’s supporters (including Prime Minister Donald Tusk) were concerned not with defending the rights of religious minorities, but rather with protecting meatpacking jobs.	就连许多法案支持者（包括总理图斯克）也被质疑没有捍卫宗教少数派的权利，而是站在了保护肉联业就业的一方。


The vote was an assault on freedom of religion that flies in the face of Article 53 of the Polish Constitution, which states that “Freedom of conscience and religion shall be ensured to everyone” and specifies that the “performing of rites” is protected.	投票结果是对波兰宪法第53条宗教自由规定的挑衅，宪法说“所有人的信仰和宗教自由都应该得到保护”，并特别规定“宗教表演仪式”受到保护。


It was also a slap in the face for Poland’s Jewish community, which has been part of the country’s social landscape for more than a thousand years, and which, despite the Holocaust, has witnessed a remarkable renaissance over the past two decades.	这也是对波兰犹太社会的侮辱，一千多年来，犹太人一直是波兰社会的组成部分，尽管经受过大屠杀的苦难，但在过去二十年中迎来了令人瞩目的复兴。


Indeed, Poland, with its rich Jewish heritage and history, was believed to be among the most fertile environments for a Jewish revival after the fall of communism.	事实上，波兰有着丰富的犹太传统和历史，共产主义倒台后，这里被认为拥有最适合犹太人复兴的土壤。


Yet the Sejm’s decision raises the question: Do Poles really want Jewish life to return to their country?	但色姆的决定引起了一个问题：波兰人真的希望犹太生活回到他们的国家吗？


Or do they see Poland’s Jewish legacy only as something that benefits their tourism and food industries?	或者，他们仅仅把犹太遗产视为能给他们的旅游业和食品业带来好处的东西吗？


Not every Jew keeps kosher, and some are vegetarians.	并非所有犹太人都恪守犹太教规，犹太人中也不乏素食主义者。


Hence, not every Jew relies on kosher meat.	因此，并非所有犹太人都依赖合规肉食。


But almost every Jew will defend the right of others to live according to Jewish dietary laws.	但几乎所有犹太人都会捍卫其他人根据犹太饮食规定生活的权利。


Shechita is an indispensable, non-negotiable part of Jewish religious life.	犹太屠宰是犹太宗教生活中不可或缺、也不容商榷的部分。


Today, Poland’s Jewish population numbers only a few thousand.	如今，波兰犹太人口只有几千人。


Everyone knows why.	谁都知道这是为什么。


That, of course, makes it easier for today’s politicians to ban shechita.	当然，这也让今天的政客更容易禁止犹太屠宰。


Such populist measures are vote winners.	这些民粹主义措施是选举的赢家。


The civil rights of small religious minorities do not matter much politically; the perceived rights of animals (and economic motivations) do.	宗教少数派的民事权利没有什么政治影响； 而动物权利（和经济动机）有。


But was this decision really motivated by concern for animal welfare?	但这一决定果然是因为关心动物福利才做出的吗？


For some deputies, it undoubtedly was; but others discovered their love of animals only when it seemed popular to do so.	一些议员认为毫无疑问是如此； 但也有一些议员只有在爱护动物形成潮流时加入这一行列。


As The Economist noted succinctly, “Poland is not a country hitherto known for championing animal rights.”	《经济学人》（Economist）一针见血地指出：“波兰迄今为止，波兰都不是以支持动物权利闻名的国家。


Indeed, it is hypocritical that hunting for sport and unsupervised home slaughtering continue to be permitted, whereas shechita, which is carried out by experienced people according to well-established procedures, is not.	”事实上，狩猎运动和无监督家庭屠宰仍被允许才是伪善的，而犹太屠宰——必须由经验丰富之士根据固定流程操作——则否。


In recent months, Polish politicians became agitated about “ritual slaughter.”	最近几个月中，波兰政客开始关注起“祭祀屠宰”来。


Granted, the term sounds archaic; but the Torah is the first systematic legislation that forbids cruelty to animals and mandates that they be treated with consideration and respect.	乍一看，这个词是那么古老； 但摩西五经乃是第一部禁止虐待动物、规定必须关心和尊重动物的系统性立法。


Those who argue that ritual slaughter is “foreign” to Polish culture not only know nothing about their country’s history; they also exploit and reinforce anti-Semitic sentiment.	认为祭祀屠宰对波兰文化来说是“舶来品”的人不但对波兰历史无知，也是在利用和强化反犹情绪。


Poland is not the only place where established religious practices are being questioned.	波兰不是唯一一个既成宗教行为被质疑的国家。


In other Western countries, such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, heated debates about religious slaughter and circumcision have taken place recently.	在其他西方国家，比如德国、法国、荷兰和新西兰，关于宗教屠宰和割礼的争论最近也呈上升之势。


A year ago, a German judge ruled that religious circumcision was a cruel practice that inflicted bodily harm on boys and was therefore illegal – a view supported by many commentators in the media.	一年前，一位德国法官判决宗教割礼是残忍行为，是强加给男孩的伤害，因此是非法的——这一观点受到了很多媒体评论员的肯定。


But German politicians strove to find a solution that accommodated the concerns of the Jewish and Muslim minorities.	但德国政客尽力寻找可协调犹太和穆斯林少数派担心的办法。


They demonstrated real leadership.	他们表现出了真正的领导精神。


Within weeks, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government proposed legislation that put religious circumcision on a solid legal basis, with the support of most members of the Bundestag.	几周内，总理默克尔政府就提出了立法草案，给了宗教割礼稳固的法律基础，并受到了德国联邦议院几乎一边倒的支持。


In the Netherlands, a covenant was signed that allowed religious slaughter.	荷兰则签订了契约，允许宗教屠宰。


It received the backing of the legislature, which had previously favored a ban.	这份契约得到了此前偏向禁止的立法机关支持。


Likewise, in Poland, following a Constitutional Court ruling in November 2012 that struck down on technical grounds a provision permitting religious slaughter, the government promised that the practice would remain legal.	类似地，在波兰，在宪法法院于2012年11月从技术角度驳回了允许宗教屠宰的提案后，波兰政府承诺宗教屠宰仍将是合法的。


Yet when legislators voted on the government’s bill earlier this month, following a sometimes-hysterical debate on ritual slaughter in the media, three dozen deputies from Tusk’s Civic Platform, the largest faction in the Sejm, opposed it.	但当本月初立法者就该政府法案投票时——此前在媒体上，关于屠宰仪式进行了近乎歇斯底里的争论——色姆最大势力、图斯克的公民纲领党（Civic Platform）的三十六名议员投了反对票。


By taking this step, Poland has become the ringleader for those in Europe who want to deny Jewish citizens the right to practice their religion freely.	如此结果让波兰成为意图否认犹太公民自由进行宗教活动权利的欧洲人的领导者。


If not halted, such measures could call into question the Jewish presence on the Continent in the longer term.	如果不加以阻止，从长期看，这类措施可能威胁到犹太人在欧洲大陆的生存。


Yet Tusk has ruled out a reversal of the ban, and one of his ministers asked the Jewish and Muslim communities to challenge it before the Constitutional Court.	但图斯克排除了撤销禁令的可能，他的一位部长要求犹太和穆斯林社会上宪法法院挑战法案。


The relationship between Central and Eastern European countries and the Jewish people has always been characterized by both triumph and tragedy.	中东欧国家和犹太民族之间的关系总是以胜利和悲剧为特征。


In recent years, it has been strengthening, especially in Poland.	近几年来，这一趋势得到了加强，特别是在波兰。


Encouraging developments have taken place, such as the construction of a new state-of-the-art Jewish Museum in Warsaw.	令人鼓舞的趋势有所发展，比如华沙建成了最先进的新犹太博物馆。


A few months ago, I participated in the March of the Living at Auschwitz.	几个月前，我参与了奥斯维辛生存者游行（March of Living）。


Many Jews with European roots who now live in America or Israel were in attendance.	许多目前生活在美国和以色列、但根在欧洲的犹太人都来到了现场。


As usual, it was a bittersweet experience.	和往常一样，这是一次甘苦杂陈的体验。


For my part, and for many years now, I have tried to highlight the sweet.	就我而言，这么多年来我一直试图彰显其甜的一面。


But now I am left wondering: Can the Jewish renaissance in the heart of Europe continue if essential elements of Jewish life are declared illegal?	但现在我遇到了困惑：如果犹太生活的关键要素被宣布为非法，犹太人还可能在欧洲核心地带实现复兴吗？


Or will Europe’s leaders stand up for the civil rights of their Jewish compatriots?	欧洲领袖会站出来捍卫他们的犹太同胞的民事权利吗？


As Pinchas Goldschmidt, President of the Conference of European Rabbis, recently remarked, one cannot be proud of the Jews of yesterday and tell the Jews of today that their religious practices are no longer welcome.	欧洲拉比大会主席戈德施密特（Pinchas Goldschmidt）最近评论说，你不可能以犹太人的过去为荣，又告诉今天的犹太人他们的宗教行为不再受欢迎了。


The Jewish heritage is part of Europe’s heritage. It should be protected, not restricted.	犹太传统是欧洲传统的一部分，应该得到保护而不是限制。


The Three Swedish Models	三种瑞典模式


Sweden’s economic and social system, sometimes called the “Swedish Model,” is often depicted either as an ideal or an abnormality.	人们有时把瑞典的经济和社会体制称为“瑞典模式”，要末把它描绘成为理想的模式，要末就是不正常的模式。


But Sweden’s system has varied considerably.	但是瑞典的体制曾经发生过巨变。


In fact, broadly speaking there have been three different Swedish “models” since the late nineteenth century.	实际上从广义上来说，从十九世纪下半叶以来，一共有三种不同的“瑞典模式”。


The first model lasted from about 1870 until the 1960’s.	第一种模式从大约1870年持续到二十世纪六十年代。


During this “liberal” period, the government basically provided stable market-supporting legislation, education, health care, and infrastructure.	在这一“自由化”期间，政府基本上提供了稳定的支持市场的法规、教育、医疗以及基础设施。


As late as 1960, both total government spending (as a share of GDP) and the distribution of earnings were similar to those prevailing in the United States.	到1960年，政府的总开支（占GDP的份额）以及收入分配都与美国的基本情况相当。


During this century-long period, Sweden moved from being one of the poorest western countries to being the third richest country in terms of GDP per capita.	在这一个世纪的期间里，瑞典从最贫穷的西方国家之一转变成为人均GDP第三富有的国家。


In other words, Sweden became a rich country  before its highly generous welfare-state arrangements were created.	换句话说，瑞典在建立非常慷慨的福利国家体系之前就已经是一个富国了。


A second era lasted from 1960 until 1985.	第二个时期从1960年到1985年。


The free-trade regime of the liberal period was retained during this period – indeed it was deepened by the various rounds of global trade liberalization – but the dominant thrust was the creation of a generous welfare state.	在这一时期里，自由化时期的自由贸易体制得到了维系，而且在不同的全球贸易自由化回合中得到了加深。 但是占居主导地位的要点却是建立慷慨的福利国家。


By the late 1980’s, total public spending reached 60-65% of GDP, compared to about 30% in 1960.	到二十世纪八十年代末，与1960年的大约30％相比，公共总开支达到了GDP的60％到65％。


Moreover, marginal tax rates hit 65-75% for most full-time employees, compared to about 40% in 1960 (all taxes on households being included).	而且，对于几乎所有的全职雇员，边际税率达到了65％至75％，与此相比，1960年大约为40％（包含了所有家庭的税收）。


Economic incentives to work, save, and start businesses were also reduced through the compression of wage differentials and a big squeeze on company profits, both largely the result of strong and centralized labor unions.	实力强大和集中领导的工会组织造成工资差异的缩减和对公司利润的挤压。 在这一期间，工作、储蓄以及开创企业的经济激励遭到了削减。


Moreover, new labor-market regulations were introduced, the most important being strict job-security legislation implemented in the early 1970’s.	而且，实施了新的劳动力市场规范，其中最为重要的是在二十世纪七十年代早期实施的严格的就业保障立法。