Then, in the closing decades of the twentieth century, a counter-revolution swept the world, pushing for just the opposite: disperse capital as widely as possible by getting everybody involved as owners.	于是，在二十世纪的最后几十年中，目的截然相反的反改革浪潮席卷全球，推崇将资本尽可能地分散以使每个人都能成为所有者。


Now the counter-revolution is being carried to its logical extreme: if everyone can be an owner, then everyone can be a capitalist, down to the barber, the waiter, and the trash collector. A specter is haunting us again; this time it is the dream of truly democratizing capitalism.	当前的反改革正被带入一个逻辑极端：若每人都能成为所有者，那么每人都能成为资本家，下至理发师、侍应者甚至拾荒者。


But turning everyone into a capitalist may be as impossible as the communist dream of turning everyone into an inspired socialist worker.	但是，就如共产主义梦想将每个人都变成充满勇气的社会主义工人一样，将每个人都变成资本家同样也是不可能的。


Interest in the arcane principles of finance has always been an inclination particular to people who love to pore over numerical tables and study mathematical formulas.	人们对神秘的金融原理的兴趣一直在减少，尤其是那些喜欢凝神看数表、研究数学公式的人。


These people sometimes make themselves rich, and it would seem nice if everyone could do that.	这些人有时候使他们自己变得富有，如果每个人都能做到这样，那看起来还真不错。


But the varying talents, foibles, and psychological predilections of men and women make this impossible.	但是性别不同、天赋、缺点以及心理偏爱的差异，使之成为不可能。


The new spirit of democratic capitalism goes by different names and mobilizes a variety of symbols.	民主制资本主义的新精神曾被冠以不同名字，并集合了多种象征符号。


But, however we describe it, the idea that the masses should be owners is growing everywhere.	但是，无论我们怎么描绘它，大众成为主人的想法正在各地崛起。


In Britain, for example, Tony Blair articulates a vision of “a nation of savers and asset-holders.”	例如在英国，首相托尼·布莱尔清晰地描绘了 “一个储蓄者与资产拥有者的国家”的前景。


His plans have been called “asset-based policies,” a term that has grown in popularity since Michael Sherraden’s 1991 book Assets and the Poor: A New American Welfare Policy .	他的计划被称为“资产政策”，一个自1991年麦克·史乐山（Michael Sherraden）的《资产和贫穷：一个美国新福利政策》出版后就逐渐风行的术语。


In the United States, President George W. Bush calls his dream the “ownership society.”	在美国，乔治·W·布什把他的梦想称为“产权社会”。


In China, the National People’s Congress in 2004 re-defined entrepreneurs and individual proprietors as “builders of the socialist cause,” and included them in the Patriotic United Front.	中国2004年全国人民代表大会将个体户、私营企业主重新定义为“社会主义事业建设者”，并把他们包括进爱国统一战线。


Governments around the world are spending money on regulating and monitoring their stock markets so that they are safer for individual investors, and so that investor interest in these markets will grow.	全世界各国政府正在花钱控制并监视他们的股票市场，以使它们对个人投资者更为安全，并保证投资者在这些市场中的利益增长。


They are also trying to develop their housing finance in order to expand homeownership.	他们也尝试努力发展他们的住房集资以扩大房屋所有权。


Some are talking about letting people own their social security contributions, in the form of personal retirement accounts, their health care through health savings accounts, and their education through educational savings accounts and school vouchers.	有些人在谈论让人们以个人退休金、健康储蓄帐户中的健康医疗费以及教育储蓄账户和教育券的形式拥有他们自己的社会保障缴款


This is an attempt at a real revolution, not a return to an earlier capitalist past. It is about experimenting with creative new economic institutions that have never been seen before.	这是一个真正的改革尝试，一个前所未有的创意新经济制度的试验，并非重回往昔的资本主义。


The general concept of “ownership” is not by itself a roadmap to a successful new economy, and there are myriad interpretations of how to carry out the revolution.	普通概念中的“所有权”本身并非通往成功新经济的路线图，而对如何实现改革的说法数不胜数。


Revolutions are always experiments, and they are always an adventure.	改革一直都是试验性的，一直是种冒险。


Some of the new policies seem exemplary.	有一些新政策看来颇具代表性。


Tony Blair’s Labor government is implementing a plan that, beginning in April, will establish a personal Child Trust Fund of £250 to £500 for every newborn.	托尼·布莱尔的工党政府将在四月开始实行一个计划，为每个新生儿童建立一个250至500英镑的私人“儿童信托基金”。


Parents can then make contributions to their child’s trust fund which can grow tax-free, and can choose how to allocate the Fund among investments.	父母到时可以向该免税增长的基金缴款，还可以选择如何分配这笔资金来进行投资。


The purpose of the gifts is to “encourage parents and children to develop the saving habit and engage with financial institutions.”	这件礼物的目的是“鼓励父母和孩子培养储蓄习惯，并与金融机构打交道”。


This is a well-designed, small-scale plan that will cost the government fairly little: £500, even invested for twenty years, will not be enough to lift someone out of poverty.	这是一个规划良好的小型计划，也花不了政府多少钱：即使每年500英镑地投资二十年，也不足以使人脱贫。


The trust funds’ real promise will consist in educating citizens about investments.	该基金的主要目的是培养公民的投资意识。


That’s a good start, particularly if Blair’s policy is copied elsewhere.	那是一个良好的开端，尤其是如果其他地方也效仿布莱尔的政策。


But other proposals carry bigger risks, notably the privatization of retirement pensions, which is talked about in many countries, and that some – including Great Britain, Chile, Sweden, and Mexico – have already put in place, at least partly.	但是其他的提议承担了更大的风险，特别是许多国家正在讨论、并包括英国、智利、瑞典和墨西哥等一些国家已经或者至少部分实���的退休养老金的私有化。


Bush’s plan to reform Social Security in the US – at least what is known of it – represents the ownership revolution’s cutting edge.	布什的美国社会保障改革计划——至少据目前所知——代表了所有权改革的先锋派。


Young people in the US who opt for it would see most of the traditional pension benefit replaced when they retire decades from now with proceeds from personal accounts that they would be free to allocate among a range of investments, including stocks.	选择该计划的美国年轻人将看到，几十年后当他们退休时，传统的养老金福利将被来源于私人账户的收入所取代，他们能自由将其用于各种投资，包括股票。


Whatever traditional benefit remains would not be enough to live on; retirees would be at the mercy of the markets for the bulk of their income.	无论传统福利还留下些什么，都难以使他们维持生计； 退休人员只能为了他们的大部分收入而任由市场摆布。


The outcome of any such experiment is impossible to foresee, because other countries’ experience can never be a perfect guide to a new system – the situation is never exactly the same in a different environment.	任何这样的试验结果都无从预测，因为其他国家的经验从来都不可能是另一个新体系的完美向导——不同环境其形势也决不会相同。


A privatized social security system like the one Bush proposes might turn out very well, assuming that people behave sensibly and/or the stock market keeps going up.	假如人们保持理性行为，并且/或者股票市场持续牛市，那么像布什提出的这样一个私有化的社会保障体系也许会很成功。


But there is also a higher risk of disaster, owing to a seemingly inborn human tendency to extrapolate past returns.	但是，鉴于人类天性似乎总喜欢推算过去的报酬，还是存在着很大的灾难风险。


Investors could create a stock-market bubble, encouraging even more naïve investors to concentrate their personal retirement accounts in the stock market – and leaving them dangerously exposed when it crashes.	投资者可能会制造一个股票市场泡沫，鼓励更为无知的投资者们将他们的个人退休账户集中投于股票市场——一旦泡沫破裂就把危险留给他们。


There is also a related risk that private accounts would cause a further drop in the personal saving rate.	还有另外一个风险，即私人账户将导致私人储蓄利率的进一步下跌。


The saving rate is the lifeblood of any economy, because foreigners cannot be expected to finance capital investment forever.	储蓄利率是任何经济体系的生命线，因为不可能指望外国人永远对资本投资投钱。


But all the talk of wondrous returns could spur what psychologists call “wishful thinking bias,” leading people to believe that their personal accounts will be so valuable in the future that outside saving is unnecessary.	但是所有关于惊人报酬的讨论将会刺激心理学家所说的“愿望思维偏向”，引导人们相信他们的私人账户会在将来变得如此值钱以至于他们不需要任何除此之外的储蓄。


Encouraging widespread capital ownership could potentially give rise to good policies.	鼓励大范围的资本所有权将有可能带来优惠政策。


But do we really want to extend such policies to areas like pensions, health care, and education?	但是，我们真的需要将这些政策扩展到诸如养老金、健康医疗和教育领域吗？


After all, owning capital – whether it is stocks or real estate – entails risks, and the need to insure against these risks is why capitalist countries built traditional safety nets in the first place. Revolutions are exciting, but we must make sure that we still have a home to return to when the barricades come down and the dust settles.	毕竟，拥有资本——无论股票还是房产——都有虽然激动人心，但是我们必须保证，当封锁来临、尘埃落定时，我们还有一个家可以回。


Korean Unification and Global Peace	韩国统一和全球和平


SEOUL – While the United Nations celebrates its 70th anniversary in 2015, Koreans will lament 70 years of national division.	首尔——在2015年联合国庆祝成立70周年时，韩国人却在感叹70年的民族分裂。


Considering all of the challenges and opportunities that the divided peninsula faces – and will continue to confront in the coming years – unification remains an important goal that we must continue to pursue.	考虑到分裂的半岛正在面对——并且今后仍将持续面对的所有机遇和挑战，统一仍将是我们必须继续为之奋斗的重要目标。


Founded formally in 1948 under UN auspices, the then-fledgling Republic of Korea immediately became engulfed in Cold War power politics, which hampered its efforts to join the UN – a goal not achieved until 1991.	1948年在联合国主持下正式成立后，当时羽翼未丰的大韩民国立即被卷入到冷战的强权政治中，并在1991年前阻碍其加入联合国。


Since then, however, the Republic has more than made up for its late arrival.	但自那以后，韩国充分夺回了失去的时间。


It is playing an active role in the UN – the Security Council, the Economic and Social Council, and the Human Rights Council – and it is participating in numerous initiatives related to peacekeeping, development cooperation, climate change, non-proliferation, and human rights.	它在联合国安全理事会、经济社会理事会和人权理事会都发挥了积极作用——并踊跃投身与维和、发展合作、气候变化、核不扩散及人权相关的众多举措。


During this time, the international community has also dramatically changed.	在此期间，国际社会也发生了巨大变化。


Globalization and technological transformation have deepened interdependence, and yet insecurity, inequality, injustice, and intolerance remain undiminished worldwide.	全球化和技术革命令相互依存度不断加深，但安全、平等、公正和容忍精神的缺失在全球各地依然随处可见。


Two decades after the Rwandan genocide, we continue to bear witness to human cruelty and horror – in Syria, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic, for example.	卢旺达大屠杀二十年后，我们继续见证着人类的残忍与恐怖——比方说在叙利亚、南苏丹和中非共和国。


Meanwhile, a billion or so of the world’s poorest people, including women and children, are barely surviving.	同时，十亿左右全世界最贫困的民众，包括妇女和儿童，都挣扎在死亡线上。


Northeast Asia has its share of trouble.	东北亚同样麻烦不断。


A rising China, a resurgent Japan, an assertive Russia, and an anachronistic North Korea have added new complexities and uncertainties to the region.	崛起的中国、复兴的日本、张扬的俄罗斯以及抱残守缺的朝鲜导致地区新的复杂及不确定性增加。


The latter’s pursuit of nuclear arms is particularly worrying.	后者试图研发核武器尤其令人担忧。


On its part, the United States is now “rebalancing” toward Asia.	就美国而言，它正积极地将“再平衡”转向亚洲。


Growing conflicts over history, territory, and maritime security, combined with an ugly resurgence of nationalism, risk triggering military confrontation, quite possibly through political miscalculation.	历史、领土及海上安全冲突日趋频繁，加之丑陋民族主义死灰复燃极有可能激发军事对抗，而军事对抗很可能与政治误判相关。


Left unattended by policymakers and peacemakers, Northeast Asia’s tensions could undermine the region’s flourishing economy.	如果决策者和维和力量置之不理，那么东北亚紧张局势很可能破坏该地区的经济繁荣。


It is in this challenging environment that the Republic of Korea’s president, Park Geun-hye, took office in 2013.	正是在这样充满挑战的环境中，韩国总统朴槿惠于2013年当选。


Her foreign policy – called “Trustpolitik” – aims to transform this atmosphere of suspicion and conflict into one of confidence and cooperation, and to build “a new Korean Peninsula, a new Northeast Asia, and a new world.”	其外交政策——也就是所谓的“互信政治” ——旨在将猜疑和矛盾的氛围转变为信任与合作，并建设“新的朝鲜半岛、新的东北亚和新的世界。 ”


The greatest obstacle to achieving this transformation is the North Korean nuclear question.	朝核问题是实现这一转型的最大障碍。


Over the last couple of months, North Korea has threatened to carry out yet another nuclear test.	就在几个月前，朝鲜还威胁要进行新一轮核试验。


Today’s most urgent task therefore must be to prevent this from happening, and then to check further advances in the North’s nuclear weapons and delivery capabilities.	因此，当前最紧迫的任务是一定要阻止这种状况发生，之后再对朝鲜核武器及其运载能力的发展进行调查。


The semblance of peace on the Korean Peninsula remains fragile, and South Korea’s government has engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to rally friends and partners in the region and worldwide to deter the North.	朝鲜半岛的和平表象依然脆弱，韩国政府已经进行了密集的外交努力，团结地区及全世界的朋友和伙伴对朝鲜进行威慑。


The UN Security Council has adopted a series of resolutions to impose extensive sanctions, following the North’s three previous nuclear tests.	朝鲜进行过三轮核试验后，联合国安理会已经通过一系列决议对其实行大规模制裁。


Any further provocation will bring the full force of the organization’s sanctions to bear.	如果胆敢有任何进一步的挑衅行为，那么机构制裁的一切后果必须由朝鲜自身承担。


Under these circumstances – in addition to the dire human rights and humanitarian situation in North Korea – Park laid out her vision for a unified Korea.	在这样的情况下——尽管朝鲜人权及人道主义状况非常严峻——朴依然提出了朝韩统一的目标。


In a recent speech in Dresden, she proposed three concrete and action-oriented proposals to the North that would address its humanitarian problems, build infrastructure for the common welfare and prosperity of the two Koreas, and promote integration of the Korean people.	在德累斯顿最近一次讲话中，她提出了三项具体可行的建议，以解决朝鲜人道主义问题、建设有利于南北朝鲜共同福祉及繁荣的基础设施并促进朝韩民众一体化。


The humanitarian component of this strategy could be implemented regardless of political and security considerations.	上述战略人道主义部分的实现可以与政治和安全因素无关。


For example, it would involve implementing the UN’s 1,000-day project for maternal health and infant nutrition, aimed at ending the North’s chronically high rate of infant malnutrition.	比方说，我们要落实联合国孕产妇保健及婴儿营养1000天计划，以结束长期困扰朝鲜的婴幼儿营养不良。


We can only hope that North Korea will respond positively to our proposal.	我们只能希望朝鲜对此作出积极的回应。


It would be an important first step on a much longer journey.	这将是一项长期计划的首要步骤。


Korea’s road to unification will undoubtedly be difficult, and will require the international community’s support.	朝韩两国的统一之路无疑将荆棘密布，需要国际社会的鼎立合作。


In return, the new, unified country that we aspire to build will serve the interests of its neighbors and those of the wider international community in promoting global peace and prosperity.	反过来，我们立志打造的全新统一国家将符合其邻国及国际社会的利益，从而促进全球的和平与繁荣。


There is a recent precedent for this vision, and thus reason to be hopeful.	不久前曾经有过类似的先例，因此我们有理由满怀希望。


Some 23 years ago, the geopolitical context that sustained the division of the two Germanys changed radically.	23年前，导致两德持续分裂的地缘政治背景发生了根本性的变化。


Similarly, the day will come when Korea’s two UN nameplates will be replaced with one.	同样，总有一天朝韩两个联合国铭牌将换成唯一的一个。


Calderon’s Cauldron	卡尔德龙的熔炉


Under dramatically inauspicious circumstances, Mexico has finally got itself a new president last Friday.	在极端不利的情况下，墨西哥终于在上周五诞生了新任总统。


Felipe Calderón has taken the oath of office, braving the wrath of his left-wing opposition, out-smarting the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) and its leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, but nonetheless paying a high price.	费利佩•卡尔德龙 （Felipe Calderón）冒着左翼反对派人士的怒火，击败了民主革命党（PRD）及其领导人安德列斯•曼努埃尔•洛佩斯•奥夫拉多尔（Andrés Manuel López Obrador），但同时也付出了惨重的代价。


Every TV news show and front-page headline in the world ran the same headline: “New Mexican President inaugurated in chaos and fisticuffs.”	全世界电视新闻和报纸的头版头条都惊人地一致：“墨西哥新总统在混乱和争斗之中宣誓就职。 ”


Mexico’s institutions withstood – just barely – the onslaught of a virtually insurrectional left-wing opposition, bent in vain on stopping Calderón’s inauguration, and of a resentful Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), increasingly dedicated to allowing Calderón to take office, and then fail miserably.	墨西哥的政府机构艰难地顶住了左翼反对派几乎是暴动般的冲击，左翼人士一心想阻止卡尔德龙就任总统。 同样难以应对的还有革命制度党（PRI），他们一门心思想看卡尔德龙登上宝座，而后再一败涂地、草草收场。


Calderón impressively overcame apparently insurmountable obstacles on the way to the presidency, yet the struggle to govern and transform Mexico has just begun.	在通往总统宝座的道路上，卡尔德龙出人意料地克服了所有似乎无法逾越的障碍，但管理和改革墨西哥的斗争才刚刚开始。


Most Mexican commentators believe that it should be relatively easy for Calderón to improve on the largely self-inflicted failure of outgoing President Vicente Fox’s term.	多数墨西哥评论家认为，改善卸任总统文森特·福克斯在就职期间造成的糟糕状况对卡尔德龙来讲难度不大。


Mexico needs to grow at roughly twice the rate that it did under Fox (a meager 2% per year).	墨西哥需要以两倍于福克斯治下的速度获得经济增长（福克斯在任时增长率只有区区2%）。


If Calderón can strengthen law and order, and use his considerable political skills to reach agreement with the PRI on structural economic reforms, he will succeed.	如果卡尔德龙能够加强法律和秩序，利用自己强大的政治能力与革命制度党达成经济结构的改革协议，他就能够获得成功。


But this view is simplistic.	但这种观点太过简单化。


Fox’s term, along with the four last years of former President Ernesto Zedillo’s mandate, were hardly a failure.	福克斯的任期，以及前总统埃内斯托·塞迪略（Ernesto Zedillo）的后四年任期，很难说成是彻底的失败。


Not since the 1960’s had Mexico undergone ten consecutive years of economic stability, low inflation, low interest rates, a stable currency, and constant, though mediocre growth.	20世纪60年代以来，墨西哥就很少看到连续10年的经济稳定、低通货膨胀、低利率、货币稳定、以及不高但却连续的经济增长。


For the first time ever, mortgages, automobile loans, and consumer credit became available to the lower middle class: this year more homes were built and sold, and more cars were bought, than ever before.	在这两位总统任内，抵押、汽车贷款和消费信贷破天荒地首次对中下层人群开放：房屋的建造和销售，以及汽车的销售，全部创下了历史新高。


Likewise, while Fox can be criticized for not clamping down on protesters and a disruptive, extremist opposition, he never resorted to the bloody repression for which most of his predecessors came to be known.	同样，尽管福克斯由于对抗议者和破坏性的极端反对力量姑息迁就而饱受批评，但他从未进行过令那些嗜血的前任闻名遐尔的血腥镇压。


Moreover, he dragged Mexico out of its archaic foreign policy cocoon, and placed immigration and human rights at the heart of Mexico’s new international agenda.	不仅如此，他打破了墨西哥外交政策的古老窠臼，使移民和人权成为墨西哥新国际议程的核心问题。


Nor is Calderón finding it easy to negotiate with the PRI, failing to build a coalition government, which he has repeatedly proclaimed as the solution to the gridlock that has cursed Mexico since 1997.	同样，卡尔德龙与革命制度党的谈判也进行得举步唯艰，未能成功地建立起联合政府，而卡氏曾反复强调只有联合政府才能打破自1997年来一直困扰着墨西哥的停滞局面。


Whatever the advantages of a cabinet comprising solely members of his Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), this is not what Calderón sought.	无论纯粹由国家行动党（PAN）构成的内阁有多少好处，那也并非是卡尔德龙的初衷。


Similarly, no deal with the opposition was possible regarding the inauguration ceremony – thus the chaotic, depressing scenes of congressmen fighting it out in their chamber, while Calderón was ushered in through the back door for a rushed ceremony.	同样，无法就就职仪式与反对派达成任何协议¾于是就上演了议员们在议会大打出手，而卡尔德龙则被从后门悄悄引入、匆匆完成就职仪式这样尴尬、混乱的一幕。


Mexico’s economic problems might be similarly more intractable than many commentators seem to believe.	同样，墨西哥的经济问题也许比很多评论家想象中的更难处理。


Mexico experienced a “cold-turkey” economic opening under former President Carlos Salinas in 1988-1994; a belated but successful political opening under former President Zedillo in 1994-2000; and, at long last, a true rotation in power thanks to Fox.	1988－1994年，墨西哥彻底改变了原有的经济模式，在前总统卡洛斯·萨利纳斯（Carlos Salinas）的带领下开始了经济开放的进程。 1994-2000年，在前总统塞迪略的领导下，墨西哥又经历了姗姗来迟但却十分成功的政治开放；


But the foundations of the old PRI-corporativist system created in the 1930’s remain untouched, and represent the main and most formidable obstacles to Mexico’s growth and success.	最后，多亏福克斯的努力，真正的权力转换终于来临。 但20世纪30年代建立起来的革命制度党的组织体系基础却从未发生变化，构成了墨西哥发展和成功最重要也最困难的障碍。


The first pillar of this system is the public and private economic monopolies that dominate the country.	这一体系的首要支柱就是遍布全国的公私经济垄断。


The state-owned oil (Pemex) and electric power (Federal Electricity Commission) companies face no competition.	国有石油公司（Pemex）和电力公司（联邦电力委员会）不存在任何竞争。


The private virtual monopolies in telecommunications (Telmex), television (Televisa), cement (Cemex), bread and tortilla manufacturing (Bimbo and Maseca, respectively), banking (Banamex/Citigroup and Bancomer/Banco de Bilbao) may face competition abroad, but not at home.	私有资本在电讯（Telmex）、电视（Televisa）、水泥（Cemex）、面包和玉米饼生产（分别是Bimbo和Maseca）、银行（Banamex/Citigroup和Bancomer/Banco de Bilbao）等领域的垄断经营也许在国外面临挑战，而在国内却仍然是惟我独尊。


These monopolies are stronger than ever, and prices, supply, service, and quality all suffer.	这些垄断企业前所未有的强大，价格、服务和品质无一不是深受其害。


The second pillar is formed by the unions that have controlled the Mexican labor movement since the 1930’s.	从20世纪30年代起就控制着墨西哥劳工运动的工会构成了这一体系的次要支柱。


They enjoy “closed shop” hiring and firing prerogatives, leadership elections by acclamation, mandatory dues without transparency, and immense political power.	他们享有“完全封闭”的雇佣和解雇特权、毫无争议的领导人选举、缺乏透明度的强制性会费，以及十分强大的政治权力。


The teachers’ union is the largest in Latin America, the oil workers’ union is the richest in Latin America, and the social security employees union has thwarted any attempt at pension or health reform for years.	其中教师工会在拉丁美洲的规模首屈一指，而石油工会的财力则在拉丁美洲富甲一方，更有甚者，社会安全员工联盟年复一年地阻挠着有关退��和医疗改革的一切尝试。


The third pillar of the system is political monopoly.	这一体系的第三根支柱就是政治垄断。


For 70 years, the PRI had a complete lock on Mexican politics; now three parties do, and no one else can enter the political arena or gain access to the enormous public subsidies – more than $500 million last year – handed out to these parties without their consent.	70年来，一直由革命制度党把持着的墨西哥政治，现在则由三个政党共同把持，其他人不可能进入到政治领域，也不可能染指巨额公共补贴，公共补贴的数额之巨在去年就超过了5亿美元，而现在却不费吹灰之力就落入了执政党手中。


The main parties write their own anti-trust legislation, vote their own subsidies, and choose their own elected officials.	各主要党派自己制定反托拉斯法，自己决定补贴的去向，自己指定候选官员。


The absence of consecutive re-election at any level reinforces the party machines’ power: they pick candidates, whom voters merely ratify at the polls.	在所有层次上缺乏连选连任机制进一步加强了党派机器的力量：各党派自己指定候选人，选民要做的只是在投票中予以批准。


So Mexico’s challenges boil down to liberating the labor movement, breaking up the private monopolies and opening the public monopolies to competition, and lowering entry barriers that restrict access to the political arena.	于是墨西哥所面临的挑战就归结为解放劳工运动、打破公私垄断以及降低政治舞台的进入门槛。


These may not be sufficient conditions for success, but they are certainly necessary ones.	也许它们不是成功的充分条件，但要想获得成功这些条件却无论如何必不可少。


Calderón must strengthen his presidency from the outset.	卡尔德龙必须从一开始就懂得控制权力。


Taking on the powers that be is perhaps the only way to achieve this, however risky it might appear.	无论看起来多么险象环生，这也许是获得成功的唯一方法。


Elected with only 35% of the vote, lacking a majority in Congress, and taking office on the eve of an economic slowdown in the United States, things would be difficult anyway.	仅以35%的得票率勉强当选、身后没有多数议员的支持、在美国经济增长即将放缓之际当选总统，这些都意味着他的总统任期将会充满艰辛。


Given that roughly a third of the electorate does not think he won fairly, and in view of the precariousness of the rule of law in the country, Calderón’s position is even less enviable.	由于三分之一的选民认为他胜之不武，再加上墨西哥法治目前的微妙处境，卡尔德龙所处的地位就更加不值得羡慕。


Caution and patience might not be his best advisors.	坚忍不拔、小心翼翼也许是最适合他的行为准则。


Our Cosmic Context	我们的宇宙环境


NEW YORK – We have always lived on a changing planet, but many of today’s variations in climatic and ecological states are taking place exceptionally fast, and are directly attributable to our behavior.	纽约——我们生活的星球一向不断变化，但今天与人类行为息息相关的许多气候及生态变化速度尤其可观。


Slowing the rate of alteration is the only rational course of action, given the potential outcomes.	考虑到由此产生的后果，唯一合理的对策是确保变化速度逐渐减缓。


But we also need to examine our responses closely, or risk repeating our shortsighted behavior.	但我们还需要仔细斟酌对策，不然就可能冒着重复短视行为的风险。


Unexpectedly, the search for life elsewhere in the universe may provide a critical new perspective.	出人意料的是，在宇宙其他地方搜寻生命的努力或许能让我们从全新的重要视角审视我们的星球。


Our technologically advanced civilization – replete with remarkable tools and notable headaches – owes everything to a tapestry of cosmic and planetary history.	令人惊叹的工具和值得注意的问题在拥有先进技术的人类文明中随处可见，所有这一切都起源于宇宙行星史。


Consider, for example, oil, gas, and coal.	以油、气、煤为例。


These substances comprise a complex package of carbon chemistry, produced by biology and geophysics operating within a deep rhythm of variation and evolution originating far from our own epoch.	这些物质蕴含着纷繁芜杂的碳化学，源起于远离我们时代却有着深刻变异和进化节奏的生物学和地球物理。


The minerals and rare-earth elements that we exploit to build ingenious devices – extending our bodies and minds – are also a part of this rhythm, and are accessible only because of a great chain of circumstances, from planetary origins to plate tectonics and asteroid impacts.	我们用来制作巧妙装置延展身心的矿物质和稀土元素也是这种节奏的组成部分，产生于从行星起源到板块构造及小行星影响等一系列独特环境。


Our trajectory as a species is hardwired to this four-billion-year-old bio-geo-chemical system that has profoundly worked and reworked the planetary environment, all the way from bacteria to city planners, atmospheric oxygen to paper mills.	人类物种轨迹与拥有四十亿年历史的生物地球化学系统紧密相连，上述系统反复影响着从细菌、城市规划、大气含氧量到造纸厂在内的星球环境。


In addition to our own genes, each of us carries the genes of tens of trillions of microbial passengers.	我们每个人除自身基因外还携带着数十万亿微生物。


These tiny organisms harbor codes for metabolic processes that have been preserved across eons – the same processes responsible for shaping the world.	这些微生物携带着将会永久传承的代谢过程密码——恰恰是这些过程决定了我们这个世界的环境。


It is a plausible blueprint for successful life anywhere, even if the biochemical details differ.	这不啻为生命在任何地方成功生存的可靠蓝图，即使不同地方的生化细节或许会有所不同。


Our daily business usually ignores this existential backdrop.	我们的日常活动往往会忽视这样的生存背景。


The struggle to mold our future, to stave off the humanitarian disasters of war, disease, and starvation leaves little room to be philosophical about our place on this crumb of cosmic dust.	创造未来、避免战争、饥饿、疾病等人道主义灾难的艰苦斗争往往令我们鲜有余力从哲学的角度思考我们在这微不足道的宇宙尘埃上起什么作用。


But many scientists, including me, have a sense that the universe might be about to reach in and give us a metaphorical slap in the face.	但众多科学家，包括我本人在内，敏锐地感到宇宙可能会用一记响亮的耳光来警告我们。


For the last few decades, the modern scientific endeavor known as astrobiology has been seeking to determine whether or not all of this – life, death, and evolution – has happened elsewhere in the cosmos.	过去几十年来，被称为天体生物学的现代科学分支一直在试图确定所有这一切——生命、死亡和进化——是否在宇宙其他地方也发生过。


Humans have long asked this question, but the evidence – the raw data – was lacking.	人类很早就已提出过这个问题，但却找不到相应的证据——也就是原始资料。


Now, astronomers have discovered a remarkable abundance of planets orbiting other stars.	现在，天文学家已经发现有数不胜数的行星围绕其他恒星转动。


The numbers tell us that 15-20 percent of Sun-like stars harbor worlds similar in size to the Earth, orbiting stellar parents at distances implying that their surfaces might be temperate.	数据告诉我们有15-20%的类日恒星孕育的世界与地球大小相似，其运行轨道与恒星的距离可能带来温和的地表温度。


We have not found the nearest such world yet, but statistically it should be within about 15 light years of us – a stone’s throw in cosmic terms.	人类尚未找到距离我们最近的世界，但从统计学的角度它应该离我们约15光年——这在宇宙学中仅仅是一箭之遥而已。


There is an excellent chance that we will find it and its brethren within a decade, and search for signs of an alien biosphere in these worlds’ atmospheric compositions or climates.	我们很可能会在十年内找到类似的星球，并进而搜索上述世界的大气成分或气候有没有外星生物的痕迹。


In the Solar System, NASA’s Curiosity rover has discovered what may be organic carbon in the fossil mud of an ancient Martian lakebed.	在太阳系中，美国宇航局的好奇号探测车已经在古老火星湖底的矿物泥中发现了或许是有机碳的痕迹。


Europa, Jupiter’s icy moon, has been spotted spewing water into space from a hidden ocean that could hold twice the volume of all of Earth’s oceans.	人类发现木星被冰层所覆盖的卫星木卫二从相当于地球两倍体积的隐形海洋中向太空喷水。


Serendipity is providing us with access to an abyssal realm that could conceivably harbor life.	好运号让我们有机会探索有可能孕育生命的深海海域。


We just have to go smell the salty spray.	我们只需要去闻一闻喷出的盐水。


Even finding nothing in such places is important, because these new data have predictive power, narrowing the field of planets, or moons, that might harbor life.	即使在这些地方什么都没发现也很有意义，因为这些新的数据具有预测性，能够缩小可能存在生命的行星或卫星范围。


Nature has the critical experimental data that we need to finally place Earth in context, within a zoo of worlds emerging from ice ages, worlds descending into greenhouse hells, young worlds, old worlds, barren worlds, and possibly worlds teeming with life.	大自然能够提供人类所需要的与地球构成参照的重要实验数据，包括刚走出冰河期的世界、跌入温室气体地狱的世界、年轻的世界、古老的世界、荒芜的世界和可能充满生命的世界。


And that means that we will have new data to steer decisions about planetary stewardship.	而这意味着人类将有新的数据来引导行星管理工作。


In other words, the cosmic sprawl can help us disentangle the complex terrestrial systems and histories of which we are a part.	换句话讲，宇宙扩张可以帮助人类理清身处其中的复杂陆地生态系统和历史。


This is not a frivolous exercise. On the contrary, it could be the key to overcoming our scientific ignorance.	这绝非无聊之举，相反可能帮助我们克服在科技领域的无知。


We might guess the general consequences of global warming in the next couple of decades, but the details remain hard to predict, as does the distant future.	我们或许可以猜测未来几十年全球变暖的总体后果，但仍然难以预测遥远的未来会发生什���以及具体的细节。


Biological networks change, chemical balances change, species go extinct, ecosystems unravel, and new ones emerge.	生物网络、化学平衡不断变化、物种灭绝、新的生态系统逐渐形成的同时旧的系统逐渐瓦解。


Cosmic context would go a long way in sorting this out.	宇宙环境在相关研究中可能会很有价值。


For many people, the idea of spending time and resources on such otherworldly pursuits is difficult to swallow.	很多人无法接受在如此不食人间烟火的课题上浪费时间和资源。


But if we are to sustain our species into the distant future, we need to make big decisions correctly.	但要想保持人类的长期繁盛，就需要避免在重大决策时犯下错误。


It is time to take the long view seriously, because we have tried the short view, and it has not worked.	现在是时候认真对待长远视角，因为我们以前的短视已经带来了问题。


California Bad Dreaming	加州噩梦


STANFORD – While central governments’ fiscal problems plague many economies, a parallel crisis is enveloping many subnational governments around the world.	斯坦福——在中央政府财政问题困扰众多经济体的同时，一场可与之媲美的危机正在席卷世界各地众多的地方政府。


From Spain to China to the United States to Italy, these governments – regions, states, provinces, cities, and towns – face immense fiscal challenges.	从西班牙到中国到美国到意大利，包括地区、州、省、市、镇在内的各级政府所面对的财政挑战异常艰巨。


Higher levels of government are “on the hook” to bail out local insolvent governments, and may even suffer bond downgrades as a result; in Spain, Italy, and China, that role falls to the national government, and for US cities and towns, to their states.	上级政府被迫出手挽救资不抵债的地方政府，甚至可能因此受到牵连而遭遇债券降级。 西班牙、意大利和中国的任务落到了国家政府的头上，而美国则需要州政府担负挽救市镇的职责。


There are many similarities within and among countries in terms of the nature and causes of these local fiscal calamities.	各国地方财政灾难的性质和成因有很多相似之处。


Local officials used growing revenues during the boom to fund pet projects or boost pay and benefits, with little regard to future costs.	地方官员根本不考虑未来可能付出的代价，在经济繁荣期利用不断增长的财政收入资助特殊项目，或提高工资福利。


In the downturn, revenues and subsidies from the central government collapsed and the bills came due.	经济陷入低迷后，来自中央财政的补贴收入锐减，票据到期。


Creative accounting gimmicks masked the full extent of the problem. Now comes the reckoning.	极富创意的会计花招掩盖了问题的严重性，现在已经到了清算的时候。


To finance local businesses, Chinese local governments use local-government financing vehicles (LGFVs) to circumvent bans on direct borrowing.	中国地方政府利用地方政府融资平台（LGFV）避开直接借贷禁令，为当地企业提供融资。


In Spain, housing and employment collapses have hammered revenue.	西班牙住宅及就业市场萎缩导致财政收入急剧下降。


Rumors of an imminent default swirl around Sicily, whose governor has resigned as borrowing soared after cutbacks from Rome.	即将陷入债务违约的流言充斥着西西里岛，因罗马紧缩开支导致的借贷成本骤增迫使西西里岛总督提出辞职。


A new report from a task force co-chaired by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker indicates that unfunded pension and health-care costs make many American states’ medium- and longer-run fiscal prospects bleak.	由前美联储主席保罗·沃尔克任联席主席的特别工作组发表全新报告，指出因养老金和医疗保健费用无着，美国不少州的中长期财政前景极其黯淡。


California’s fiscal crises may also provide lessons for subnational governments around the world.	加州财政危机也可以警示世界各地的地方政府。


Three California cities have recently declared bankruptcy: Stockton, the largest American city ever to do so; San Bernardino, the second-largest bankrupt city; and Mammoth Lakes.	有三个加州城市不久前宣告破产：包括美国有史以来最大的破产城市斯托克顿； 第二大破产城市圣贝纳迪诺和猛犸湖。


Compton is rumored to be next; most observers expect more to follow.	传言认为康普顿会下一个宣布破产； 多数观察家预计将有更多城市加入到这个队伍。


The state faces another large budget deficit, yet Governor Jerry Brown’s budget this year includes a substantial spending increase.	加州面临新一轮巨额财政赤字，但杰里·布朗州长今年的年度预算开支却大幅增加。


Brown’s ballot initiative this November would raise California’s top personal income-tax rate to 13.3%, the nation’s highest.	今年11月布朗的公民投票将把加州个人所得税的最高税率提高到13. 3%，这也是美国各地所得税率的最高值。


According to Brown, the tax hike would be temporary, yet it would last seven years.	按照布朗的说法此次加税只是一项临时性举措，但这项举措却需要持续七年之久。


Meanwhile, he claims to be tough on California’s notoriously well-paid and powerful public-employee unions by negotiating a 5% pay cut.	此外，他还声称与加州臭名昭著的高薪强势公务员工会谈判达成了5%的减薪。


But the details reveal a net 1.6% pay cut in exchange for a 5% reduction in work hours.	但协议细节却显示减薪幅度仅为1. 6%，而工作时数却下降多达5%。


Cities are declaring bankruptcy to escape the pressure of exponentially rising pension and health costs.	各城市纷纷宣告破产，以躲避成倍增长的养老金及医疗费用所带来的压力。


In contrast to the state, cities have even cut back essential services, including 20% reductions in police and fire personnel.	与州政府不同，市政府甚至削减了必要的服务，其中包括将警察和消防员人数缩减20%。


Bankruptcy should allow local governments to renegotiate their bond debt and, perhaps, their retired employees’ pension and health-care costs (that’s up to a bankruptcy judge).	破产后地方政府可以重新谈判其债券债务，或许还可以重新谈判退休职工养老金和医疗费用（由破产法官最终裁定）。


The state would be expected to take over essential public services from bankrupt local governments.	州政府将从破产地方政府手中接管基本的公共服务。


But the state itself is in dire financial straits; one of the cities’ problems is the sharp curtailment of state funds to localities.	但州政府自身的财政形势也极为严峻，各市所面临的问题之一就是来自州政府的拨款数大幅降低。


Despite these problems, Brown has committed California to a San Francisco-to-Los Angeles high-speed rail boondoggle.	即使存在如此众多的困难，布朗还在旧金山至洛杉矶的高铁项目上给加州造成了极大的浪费。


To get the cost projections down to $68 billion from a $100 billion estimate, some existing low-speed rail will be used, likely doubling the time it takes to travel from Los Angeles to San Francisco to 5-6 hours.	为了将预算成本从1000亿美元削减至680亿美元，需要利用现有的某些低速轨道，很可能造成洛杉矶到旧金山的旅行时间翻番，达5－6小时。


California will most likely be unable to pay for the entire project, leaving little use for the first segment in the sparsely populated Central Valley.	加州将很有可能无法负担整个项目，致使位于人烟稀少的中央山谷的一期工程陷于荒废。


And, if the project somehow is completed, it will be a not-so-high-speed rail that will drain badly needed resources from other essential government services for many decades.	而且就算该项目完成也将不会是什么高速铁路，但却会在今后几十年内大量分流基本政府服务所急需的资金。


These sorry episodes reveal some important lessons.	从这些令人痛惜的事实中可以汲取重要的教训。


One-party government weakens accountability and breeds hubris.	一党政府削弱问责制并滋生傲慢。


The California legislature has been controlled by the Democratic Party for decades, and it takes its cue from its party’s most powerful special interests: public-employee unions, environmentalists, trial lawyers, and teachers’ unions.	民主党几十年来一直控制着加州的立法机关，长期听命于公务员工会、环保人士、辩护律师和教师工会等该党最强大的特殊利益群体。


They have concocted an extremely progressive social experiment: with 12% of the US population, California has more than 30% of its welfare dependents.	他们炮制出一项极端进步的社会实验：加州人口仅占全���总人口的12%，却有着超过30%的福利家属。


From the mid-1980’s to 2005, California's population grew by 10 million, while Medicaid recipients soared by seven million; tax filers paying income taxes rose by just 150,000; and the prison population swelled by 115,000.	从20世纪80年代中到2005年，加州人口仅增长1000万，而医疗补助受益人却猛增了700万之多； 所得税纳税人仅增长150,000，而监狱人口却增长了115,000之多。


The state income tax is not only uncompetitively high, but the revenues are volatile.	加州不仅所得税畸高，而且财政收入很不稳定。


In the economic and stock-market upswing, revenues roll in far more rapidly than incomes rise, owing to the extremely progressive income tax (in good years, the top 1% pays about half the state’s income taxes).	在经济和股市持续上升的情况下，由于极端的累进所得税制，财政收入的增速远远高于工资收入的增速（在情况最好的年份，1%工资最高的纳税人所缴纳的所得税占该州的将近一半）。


The legislature spends it as if the elevated revenues will continue forever.	立法机关花钱的架势就好像高收入会永远继续下去似的。


Then the inevitable recession and stock-market collapse plunges the state into crisis.	之后不可避免的经济衰退和股市崩盘令该州陷入到危机状态。


The progressive social experiment has gone so severely off-track that the state cannot even dependably provide essential services, from courts to education, for the most needy.	进步社会实验严重出轨，以致于州政府无法可靠地为最需要的群体提供从司法到教育等最基本的服务。


Not surprisingly, California’s economy, which used to outperform the rest of the US, now substantially underperforms.	因此，曾经在美国独领风骚的加州经济现在远远落后也就不值得大惊小怪了。


The unemployment rate, at 10.8%, is almost one-third higher than the national average, and higher than every other state except Nevada and Rhode Island.	加州10. 8%的失业率高出全国平均水平近三分之一，且高于除内华达和罗德岛之外的全美每一个州。


California still has great strengths in technology, entertainment, and agriculture.	加州在科技、娱乐和农业领域仍具备很强的实力。 但民众和政客都必须更谨慎地批准目标服务；


But citizens and politicians alike must agree to target services far more carefully; reform the tax system with lower rates on a broader base of economic activity and people (almost half pay no state income tax); and modernize inefficient state programs to spend less and produce far better outcomes.	针对更大范围的经济活动和人口调降税率、改革税制（几乎半数的人不用缴纳州所得税）； 并推动该州低效项目的现代化，降低开支，改善结果。


Not coincidentally, that’s a perfect prescription for bloated, debt-ridden central and subnational governments worldwide.	这也是全世界机构臃肿、债务缠身的中央和地方政府的完美出路，这一点绝不是什么巧合。


California Dying	加州之死


Berkeley – While the new Obama administration is commanding global attention, America’s future may be written – as so many times before – in and by its largest state.	伯克利-虽然奥巴马新政府统领着全球注意力，美国的未来却可能-正如以前曾多次出现的那样-由其最大州决定。


Once the lodestar for American optimism and achievement, California now illustrates the difficulties confronting the United States – and how much more can still go wrong domestically.	曾几何时，加利福尼亚州还是美国式的乐观主义和功成名就的指路灯，现在，该州却集中体现了美国所面临的困境 – 而且还显示了美国国内有多少窘境还没有暴露出来。


The most populous and wealthiest of America’s 50 states, California has long been a beacon of opportunity for talented and enterprising people from all over the world.	加州作为美国50个州中人口最多和最富裕的州，长期以来一直是从世界各地涌来的富有才华和创业精神的人们心中的一盏充满机会的灯塔。


One in every four California residents was born in a foreign country.	每4个加州居民中就一个是在国外出生。


California’s two most famous industries, Silicon Valley and Hollywood, depend on infusions of talent from abroad.	加州的两个最有名的行业，高科技的硅谷和电影基地好莱坞，依赖国外人才的引进。


Its robust agricultural sector is a massive exporter of food, benefiting from the growing appetites of consumers in developing countries.	因受益于发展中国家消费者不断增长的需求，加州强大的农业部门大量地出口食品。


Yet California’s technological and entrepreneurial might – standing alone, the state would be the world’s eighth largest economy – coexists with a dysfunctional political system that has brought it to the edge of fiscal bankruptcy.	然而，若单独计算加州技术和企业的能量，它就是世界第八大经济体，但该州功能失常的政治制度已经把它推到了财政破产的边缘。


On May 19, the state’s voters, in a special election, rejected an array of tax increases and spending cuts required to balance its budget.	5月19日，该州的选民在一次特别选举中，否决了一系列为达到预算平衡所需要的增加税收和削减支出的方案。


Now, California faces either an embarrassing federal bailout or a prolonged period of rule by judges, who under California law have the power to vacate labor agreements, abrogate contracts, and generally restructure the state’s financial commitments.	现在的加州面临两种选择：要么是尴尬地靠联邦政府救助，要么是在相当长的一段时间内由法官来治理； 根据加州法律，法官有权废除劳动协议、取消合同并大规模重组州财政义务。


For President Barack Obama, California’s crisis imperils his own reform agenda.	对于奥巴马总统，加州危机则危及了他自己的改革进程表。


Because other American states also face tough fiscal conditions, the political price of bailing out California may be bailing out dozens of other states too.	因为美国其它州也面临困难的财政状况； 救助加州的政治代价，可能会是也必须救助其它几十个州。


A massive state bailout, while adding enormously to pressure on Obama’s government, would expose the weak link in the US system of governance.	大规模的对州政府的救助给奥巴马政府增添了巨大的压力，并将暴露出美国的国家治理制度的薄弱环节。


So-called “unitary” nations such as Britain, France, China, or Kenya, essentially have a single set of government obligations: one national police force, one employer for all public school teachers, one overall pension system, etc.	在所谓“单一性”的国家里，如英国。 法国、中国或肯尼 亚，基本上只有单一的一套政府义务：只有一支警察部队，公立学校教师只受雇于一个机构，只有一个总体的养老金制度，等等。


By contrast, the US has an “asymmetric” form of government, which allows many overlapping government entities – 7,000 in California alone – to incur debts, hire and fire employees, and impose taxes.	而相比之下，美国的政府形式却是“非对称”的， 它允许很多重叠的政府实体- 仅在加州就有7000个-举债、雇用和解雇员工并进行征税。


Making sense of these asymmetries is difficult.	要想弄明白这种不对称性之中蕴含的道理是不容易的。


When financial markets concentrate on the fiscal health of the federal government, they miss the extent of government obligations as a whole.	当金融市场集中关注于联邦政府的财政状况时，人们却没有关注政府作为一个整体担负的义务的广度。


The complexity of American governance threatens the benefits of Obama’s decision to stimulate the economy through deficit spending.	治理美国的复杂性，威胁到奥巴马通过赤字开支以刺激经济的决定所带来的利益。


While the national government expands, state governments, such as California’s, contract.	虽然联邦政府在扩大，但如加利福尼亚州这样的州政府却在萎缩。


Moreover, California’s crisis is more than an economic one.	此外，加州的危机不仅仅是经济上的。


California is the most diverse US state; more than half of its 37 million people are non-white.	加州是美国最多元化的州; 其3700万人口中非白人占了一半以上。


For believers in the benefits of diversity, California represents the largest social experiment in human history, bringing people of different backgrounds together in a way unimaginable in, say, Germany, China, or Brazil.	对于笃信多元化好处的人来说，加州代表了人类历史上最大的社会实验，它把不同背景的人融合在一起，这样的方式在德国、中国或巴西是难以想象的。


California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, was an immigrant (from Austria) before he was a movie star.	加州州长施瓦辛格，在他成为电影明星之前也是一个移民（奥地利移民）。


In his six years in office, he has repeatedly tried to bypass a polarized state legislature – even the annual budget requires a two-thirds majority – by appealing directly to voters.	在他六年的州长生涯中，他曾多次试图绕过两极分化的州政府-甚至年度预算也需要三分之二多数的通过-而直接向选民呼吁。


Ballot initiatives were created 100 years ago to empower ordinary citizens, but in recent decades the process has been captured by self-serving elites.	投票倡议的方法建立于100年前，它赋予普通公民于权利，但近几十年来，这一进程已被为自己谋利的精英们所窃取。


Even as California’s roads fall apart and public institutions decline – the result of too little spending and public workers who are too expensive – the state continues to operate the finest set of public universities in the US.	即使当加州的公路破旧不堪以及公共机构衰败的时候-这是开支太少和公共工人太昂贵所造成的-加州继续经营着美国最好的公立大学。


But the secret of the University of California’s success is its ability to obtain ever-higher amounts of funding from private sources and the federal government.	但是，加州大学成功的秘诀是它能从私人和联邦政府那里拿到更高数额的资金。


Disengagement from the California polity also is true of the state’s economic engines.	脱离加州政体的情况在加州的经济引擎里也是如此。


Intel, the world’s biggest chip maker and a Silicon Valley mainstay, hasn’t built a factory in California for more than 20 years.	英特尔公司是世界上最大的芯片制造商和硅谷的主心骨，但它20年多年里却没有在加州建过一家工厂。


Hollywood shoots an increasing number of films elsewhere.	好莱坞越来越多的电影在别处拍摄。


Agriculture relies heavily on illegal workers from Mexico, who live temporarily near the fields and take their earnings back home.	而农业在很大程度上也依赖来自墨西哥的非法劳工，这些工人暂时住在农田旁边，拿到了钱就寄回国。


How to forge a single community out of a state so diverse remains an elusive challenge.	如何在一个如此多元化的州里建立一个统一的社区，仍然是一个难以实现的挑战。


Some influential people, including Schwarzenegger, say the state needs a new constitution that would restrict ballot initiatives and make budgets easier to pass.	包括施瓦辛格在内的一些有影响力的人士认为，加州需要一部新宪法以限制投票倡议法，使预算更容易通过。


More radical thinkers insist that California is ungovernable and should be broken into two or even three states.	更为激进的思想家们则坚持认为，加州是无法治理的，应把该州一分为二，甚至一分为三。


Creating more Californias would of course require the approval of the federal government in Washington, where elected representatives from California – mainly from Obama’s Democratic Party – have more power today than at perhaps any time in US history.	拆分加州当然需要在华盛顿的联邦政府的批准，而在华盛顿政府中，加州选出的代表-主要来自奥巴马的民主党-在美国历史上她们从未像现在这样大权在握。


Nancy Pelosi, the House majority leader, is from San Francisco.	众议院多数党领袖南希·佩洛西就是从旧金山来的。


Californians run the two most powerful House committees, Energy and Commerce and Education and Labor.	加州掌管着众议院中两个最强大的委员会：能源商业与教育劳动委员会。


Two of the most influential senators also come from California.	两个最有影响力的参议员也来自加利福尼亚州。


Why these Washington politicians are idle while their state slides towards ruin says much about what’s broken in American politics.	为什么在她们的州滑向毁灭边缘的时候，这些在华盛顿的政治家们却置若罔闻呢？ 这在相当程度上说明了美国政治中的失败之处。


Schwarzenegger is a Republican, so Democrats privately wish him to fail.	施瓦辛格是共和党人，而民主党人私下则希望他失败。


There’s a deeper problem: politicians across the spectrum, beholden to special interests, are habituated to denying serious problems.	还有一个更深层的问题：依赖于特殊利益集团的各方政客们已经习惯于对严重问题进行否认。


Obama will be forced to help craft a compromise to keep the state financially afloat.	奥巴马将被迫帮助仔细推敲出一种妥协方案以使加州的财政不至于破产。


Yet as a condition, he may insist that Californians, who are already among the most heavily taxed Americans, pay more.	然而，作为条件，他可能会坚持要加州人民付更高的税收，而加州已经是美国课税最重的州之一了。


If Californians refuse, Obama could face a widening revolt – against the idea of expanded government as the chief response to what ails America at home.	如果加州人民不同意，奥巴马可能面临对他政策的日益严重的反抗情绪-他的政策是把扩大政府规模作为应对美国国内困境的主要对策。


Calling the Big Banks’ Bluff	反击大银行的恐吓


BERLIN – The G-20’s decision in November 2008 not to let any systemically relevant bank perish may have seemed wise at the time, given the threat of a global financial meltdown.	柏林—2008年，G20决心不让一家具系统重要性的银行倒闭，从当时看，这一决定是明智的，因为当时全球金融系统面临崩溃风险。


But that decision, and bad policies by central banks and governments since then, has given over-indebted major banks the power to blackmail their rescuers – a power that they have used to create a financial system in which they are effectively exempt from liability.	但这一决定以及自此以后央行和政府的坏政策让负债过度的主要银行肆无忌惮地对其拯救者进行敲诈勒索，它们利用这一权力营造了一个自己可以在事实上免受债务负担的金融系统。


Big banks’ ability to extort such an arrangement stems from an implicit threat: the financial sector – and with it the economy’s payment system – would collapse if a systemically important bank were ever pushed into insolvency.	大银行能够营造这样的安排的原因是一个潜在威胁：如果具系统重要性的银行陷入破产，那么金融部门——以及与之相关的经济支付系统——将会崩溃。


But it is time to call the bankers’ bluff: maintaining the payment system can and should be separated from the problem of bank insolvency.	但现在是时候给银行家点颜色看看了：维持支付系统可以也应该与银行破产问题区别对待。


Above all, the G-20’s decision to prop up systemically relevant banks must be revisited.	说到底，G20支持具系统重要性银行的决定必须有所改变。


And governments must respond to the banks’ threats by declaring their willingness to let insolvent banks be judged accordingly.	政府必须宣布已经做好了依法处置破产银行的准备，以此来应对银行的威胁。


A market economy must rest on the economic principle of profit and loss.	市场经济必须以盈亏的经济学原理为基础。


An economy with neither bankruptcies nor a rule of law that applies equally to all is no market economy.	没有破产也没有人人平等的法治精神的经济不是市场经济。


The law that is valid for all other companies should apply to banks as well.	法律面前人人平等这一原则必须对银行也适用。


Moreover, governments should guarantee insolvent banks’ loans to non-financial companies, as well as private customers’ current, fixed-term, and savings deposits, by reforming insolvency laws.	此外，政府应该通过改革破产法担保破产银行的对非金融企业的贷款以及私人客户的活期、定期和储蓄存款。


Certainly, governments should not guarantee interbank liabilities that do not affect customer deposits.	显然，政府不应该担保不影响客户存款的银行间债务。


An insolvency administrator would manage the bank and ensure that all payments for which a state guarantee is given are carried out properly, with refinancing of these payments continuing to take place via the central bank.	破产官员应该接管银行，并确保国家担保所承担的支付都是合理的，而这些支付应该通过央行再融资进行。


After taking these steps, the payments system would be safe.	在采取了这些步骤之后，支付系统将会是安全的。


In case of insolvency, a bank’s computers would not be turned off, its employees would not instantly be dismissed, and payment transactions would not collapse.	在发生破产案时，银行的电脑不会关闭，其雇员不会被马上遣散，支付交易也不会陷入崩溃。


Nor would a run on savings deposits occur, given the official guarantees that they remain unaffected by a bank’s insolvency.	存款挤兑也不会发生，因为官方担保它们不会因银行破产而受影响。


After all, even a simple banknote is money only because the government says so, and thus is no different from savings deposits, which means that no saver has an advantage from holding cash.	毕竟，只要政府点头，银行票据就可以成为货币，从而与储蓄存款别无二致，这意味着储户并不能因为持有现金而得到好处。


So there would be no need for bank runs.	因此也就没有必要挤兑了。


Of course, the deliberate restriction of the effects of bankruptcy to accounts other than private current, savings, and fixed-term deposits means that the insolvency of bank A could lead to the insolvency of bank B. For bank B, too, the same liquidation scenario would apply: savings deposits would be safe, payments could be made from its customers’ current deposits, and loans that it granted to non-financial companies would not be revoked.	当然，有意限制银行倒闭对私人活期、储蓄和定期存款的影响意味着A银行的破产可能引发B银行跟着破产。 对于B银行，会出现相同的清盘情景：储蓄存款将是安全的，支付可以来自其客户的活期存款，而贷给非金融公司的贷款也不会受到撤销。


Obviously, the domino effect need not stop there: the insolvency of banks A and B could get a bank C – and additional banks – into trouble.	显然，多米诺效应并不会止于此处：银行A和银行B的破产可能会把银行C——甚至更多的银行——拖入险境。


Indeed, the entire over-indebted fractional reserve-banking subsystem might have to be liquidated.	事实上，整个过度负债的部分准备金银行子系统都可能遭遇清盘。


But the payment system would survive.	但支付系统不会崩溃。


This might trigger a positive domino effect as well, as other states – on grounds of international financial integration – adopt similar procedures for controlled liquidation of their own insolvent banks.	随着其他国家——在国际金融一体化的基础上——采取类似的有控制的破产银行清盘程序，这还能引发积极的多米诺效应。


Zombie assets would be destroyed.	僵尸资产将被摧毁。


A large part of the money and credit that was created out of nothing from former interbank transactions, now excluded from official guarantees, would return to nothing.	货币和信用的一大部分原本无非是银行间交易所产生的浮云，如今它们被排除在官方担保之外，将恢复其浮云的本来面目。


Afterwards, the liquidated, formerly over-indebted banks could be sold.	然后，此前过度负债、现在已被清盘的银行可以被出售。


We have it in our power to eliminate the financial system’s rapidly growing debt and to create a new monetary order that corresponds to free-enterprise principles and the rule of law, without risking a breakdown of the entire payment system.	我们有权力去除金融系统中迅速增加的债务，创造一个新的、与自由企业原则和法治精神相适应的货币秩序而不产生整个支付系统崩溃的风险。


All that is required to revive effective bank regulation – in Europe and elsewhere – is the will to resist blackmail by the banks themselves.	重塑有效银行监管——不管是欧洲还是世界其他地方——所需要的只是坚决抵制被银行本身绑架的意愿。


Call In the Reserves	外汇储备面面观


The People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan – as well as other central banks in Asia – are in trouble.	中国人民银行和日本银行-以及亚洲的其他中央银行-遇到了麻烦。


They have accumulated vast foreign exchange reserves, estimated at more than $2 trillion.	它们积累了大量的外汇储备，估计超过2万亿美金。


The problem is that almost all of it is in US dollars – a currency that is rapidly losing its value.	问题是其中的美元储备占了绝大部分-而美元正在迅速地贬值。


All policy options for Asia’s central banks appear equally unattractive.	亚洲各央行在应对政策方面似乎都乏善可陈。


If they do nothing and simply hold onto the dollars, their losses will only increase.	如果它们无所作为并坚定地持有美元，那么其损失只会进一步加大。


But if they buy more, in an attempt to prop up the dollar, they will only have a bigger version of the same problem.	如果它们为了让美元升值尔买入更多，也只能使同一个问题变得更严重。


If, on the contrary, they try to diversify into other currencies, they will drive down the dollar faster and create greater losses.	反之，如果他们力图使外汇储备多样化，则只会使美元贬值更快，从而造成更大的损失。


They are also likely to encounter the same sort of problem with other possible reserve currencies.	将其他的货币作为外汇储备也很可能会遇到同样的问题。


The euro has been touted as the replacement for or alternative to the dollar.	欧元已被追捧为替代美元或除美元以外的另一种储备货币。


Some enthusiastic Europeans encouraged Asians to diversify their reserve holdings.	一些欧洲人热诚地鼓励亚洲人将他们的外汇储备多样化。


But the same scenario might well be repeated with the euro in a few years.	但在几年以后，欧元也很可能重蹈美元覆辙。


Large fiscal deficits and slow growth might convince foreign exchange markets that there is little future in the euro, fueling a wave of selling – and hence losses for central bank holders.	巨大的财政赤字和经济滞胀可能让外汇市场认为欧元没有前途从而引发一股抛售浪潮-因而给持有欧元的央行们带来损失。


There is a historical parallel to today’s concern about the world’s major reserve currency.	现今人们对世界主要储备货币的担忧在历史上是有资可鉴的。


The interwar economy, shattered by the Great Depression of the early 1930’s, offers a whole series of painful, but important, lessons for the present.	被20世纪30年代的大萧条破坏的两次大战间的经济为我们今天提供了一系列痛苦但却重要的教训。


In the 1920’s, the world economy was reconstructed around a fixed exchange rate regime in which many countries held their reserves not in gold (as was the practice before the First World War) but in foreign exchange, especially in British pounds sterling.	在上世纪20年代，世界经济围绕着固定汇率机制重建。 在这一机制下，很多国家不以黄金的形式持有储备（这是第一次世界大战以前的惯例），而是以外汇的形式，特别以英镑为主。


During the course of the 1920’s, some of the official holders of pounds grew nervous about Britain’s weak foreign trade performance, which suggested that, like today’s dollar, the currency was over-valued and would inevitably decline.	在20年代期间，一些英镑的官方持有人对于英国对外贸易方面差强人意的表现颇为担心。 正如现今的美元一样，这意味着该货币的价值被高估了因此贬值不可避免。


Foreign central banks asked whether the Bank of England was contemplating changing its view of the pound’s exchange rate.	外国的央行们询问英格兰银行是否在考虑改变其英镑汇率的立场。


Of course they were told that there was no intention of abandoning Britain’s link to gold, and that the strong pound represented a deep and long commitment (in the same way that US Treasury Secretary John Snow today affirms the idea of a “strong dollar”).	回答当然是该行无意放弃英镑与黄金的联系，坚挺的英镑代表着一种深远和长期的承诺（这与今天的美国财长约翰·斯诺确认“强势美元”的立场如出一辙）。


Only France ignored British statements and substantially sold off its sterling holdings.	只有法国不理会英国的声明并大量抛售英镑储备。


When the inevitable British devaluation came on September 20-21, 1931, many foreign central banks were badly hit and were blamed for mismanaging their reserves.	当英镑贬值不可避免地在1931年9月20-21日发生时，许多外国的央行损失惨重并被斥责为对外汇储备处置不当。


Many were stripped of their responsibilities, and the persons involved were discredited.	多家央行的职责被解除，相关人员名誉扫地。


The Dutch central banker Gerard Vissering resigned and eventually killed himself as a result of the destruction wrought on his institution’s balance sheet by the pound’s collapse.	荷兰央行行长杰拉德·威瑟林引咎辞职。 英镑的崩溃给该机构造成的毁灭性打击使他最终以自杀谢罪。


Some countries that traded a great deal with Britain, or were in the orbit of British imperial rule, continued to hold reserves in pounds after 1931.	一些与英国有巨额贸易的国家或一些英联邦国家在1931年后继续以英镑作为其主要外汇储备。


During World War II, Britain took advantage of this, and Argentina, Egypt, and India, in particular, built up huge claims on sterling, although it was an unattractive currency.	在第二次世界大战期间，英国充分利用了这一点，因此虽然英镑已不复昔日荣光，但阿根廷、埃及、特别是印度仍成为了主要的英镑债权国。


At the war’s end, they thought of a new way of using their reserves: spend them.	大战结束时，他们想到了使用这笔储备的新方法：花掉它们。


Consequently, these reserves provided the fuel for economic populism.	其结果使这些储备促生了经济民粹主义。


Large holders of sterling balances – Nehru’s India, Nasser’s Egypt, and Peron’s Argentina – all embarked on major nationalizations and a public sector spending spree: they built railways, dams, steel works.	拥有大量英镑结余的国家-尼赫鲁的印度、纳塞尔的埃及和庇隆的阿根廷-都掀起了主要的国有化进程和公共事业领域的开支热潮：他们修建铁路、水坝、钢厂。


The sterling balances proved to be the starting point of vast and inefficient state planning regimes that did long-term harm to growth prospects in all the countries that took this course.	英镑储备成为庞大而低效的国家计划体制的起点。 这一体制给所有相关国家的经济成长都带来了长期的损害。


Could something similar be in store for today’s holders of large reserves?	当今拥有庞大外汇储备的国家会重蹈覆辙吗？


The most explicit call for the use of dollar reserves to finance a major program of infrastructure modernization has come from India, which has a similar problem to the one facing China and Japan.	来自印度，要以美元储备支持主要基础设施现代化项目的声浪甚高。 而中国和日本也面临相似的问题。


It will be similarly tempting elsewhere.	它在其他国家也会具有同样的诱惑力。


This temptation needs to be removed before the tempted yield to it.	在被诱惑者们屈从之前就必须把这种诱惑铲除。


Reserve holdings represent an outdated concept, and the world should contemplate some way of making them less central to the operation of the international financial system.	储备持有代表着一种过时的理念。 我们应该想出办法削弱其在国际金融体系运作中的中心地位。


To be sure, reserves are important to smooth out imbalances in a fixed exchange rate regime.	确切地说，外汇储备在一种固定汇率体制下会起到重要的平衡作用。


But the world has moved since the 1970’s in the direction of greater exchange rate flexibility.	但自上世纪70年代以来，世界已经向着更灵活汇率的方向迈进了。


Reserves are also clearly important for countries that produce only a few goods – especially commodity producers – and thus face big and unpredictable swings in world market prices.	外汇储备显然对只生产少数商品的国家甚为重要-特别是日用品生产国-因为他们要面对世界市场价格不可预测的大幅波动。


Dependency on coffee or cocoa exports requires a build-up of precautionary reserves.	对咖啡和可可出口的依赖需要有预防性的外汇储备。


But this does not apply to China, Japan, or India, whose exports are diversified.	但这并不适用于中国、日本和印度，这些国家的出口产品是多样化的。


Today’s big surplus countries do not need large reserves.	当今拥有巨额贸易顺差的国家不需要大量的外汇储备。


They should reduce their holdings as quickly as possible, before they do something really stupid with the accumulated treasure.	在用这笔积累起来财富做出蠢事之前，他们应该尽快减少外汇储备。


Hamas Rising	哈马斯崛起


GAZA CITY – Hamas, the militant political movement that has ruled Gaza since 2007, has emerged from the latest round of fighting with Israel with its regional status significantly enhanced.	加沙城—军事运动组织哈马斯自2007年以来一直统治着加沙，其崛起是在与地区地位大大上升的以色列的最新一轮斗争中实现的。


At the same time, the movement faces new questions about its ability to take advantage of the diplomatic opportunities that it has gained.	与此同时，哈马斯也面临着新问题：是否有能力利用其争取得来的外交机会。


Hamas’s forceful response to Israel’s military operation in Gaza in November, which included landing rockets near Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, demonstrated its commitment to its core value of steadfastness.	11月，以色列对加沙采取了军事行动，哈马斯对此以牙还牙，其火箭打到了特拉维夫和耶路撒冷附近，这表明它将坚定不移地捍卫其核心价值。


Moreover, in the wake of the eight-day clash, Hamas’s long-exiled leader, Khaled Meshal, who had never before dared to show himself openly to Israel, entered Gaza from Egypt.	此外，在八日冲突（eight-day clash）中，哈马斯长期流亡的领导人马沙尔（Khaled Meshal）从埃及进入加沙，此前他从来不敢公开在以色列面前露面。


Parading triumphantly through the streets, he reinforced the idea – at home and abroad – that Hamas had been victorious.	他大摇大摆地出现在街头游行中，这加强了加沙内外的印象——哈马斯已经获胜。


Beyond Gaza, the rise of political Islam in the Arab Spring countries, particularly Egypt and Tunisia, has created a more Hamas-friendly neighborhood.	在加沙地区之外，阿拉伯之春国家（被别是埃及和突尼斯）伊斯兰政治势力的崛起为哈马斯创造了有利的周边环境。


Crucially, the negotiations in Cairo that produced a cease-fire with Israel involved direct, high-level diplomatic contact between Egypt and Hamas – a fundamental shift from former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s avowedly anti-Hamas stance.	最关键的是，开罗谈判形成了与以色列的停火，这促成了埃及与哈马斯的直接高层外交契约——与埃及前总统穆巴拉克明确的反哈马斯立场截然相反。


Visits to Gaza by the Emir of Qatar and Turkey’s foreign minister, as well as by other regional leaders, have further buttressed Hamas’s new stature.	卡塔尔埃米尔、土耳其外交部长以及其他地区领导人对加沙的访问进一步巩固了哈马斯的新地位。


Demonstrating support for Hamas now means building credibility at home, which creates an opportunity to elicit large donations from Arab and Muslim countries to finance Gaza’s reconstruction.	如今，证明对哈马斯的支持意味着在国内建立信誉，而这又给哈马斯重建带来了机会，阿拉伯和穆斯林国家将为此提供重金。


By contrast, Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), who embraces peace negotiations with Israel and disavows armed struggle, is more isolated than ever, despite his success in upgrading Palestine’s status at the United Nations to that of “non-member observer state” days after the fighting in Gaza ended.	相反，巴勒斯坦权力机构（PA）主席阿巴斯的策略是与以色列和谈，告别武装斗争，他受到了前所未有的孤立，尽管他在加沙战斗结束数日后成功地将巴勒斯坦在联合国的地位升格为“非成员观察国”。


Hamas initially reacted skeptically to the statehood bid, but supported it after the cease-fire, owing to its expectation that it will be able to exploit Palestine’s upgraded status.	哈马斯一开始对建国计划颇为狐疑，但在停火协议后给予了支持，因为它期望能利用巴勒斯坦地位升格的机会。


Nonetheless, recent events, together with the PA’s dwindling resources, have diminished Abbas’s credibility among Palestinians, who increasingly view him as desperate.	尽管如此，最近发生的一系列事件加上PA资源告竭，阿巴斯在巴勒斯坦人中间的信誉在下降，被看作是在困兽犹斗。


Israel’s announcement after the UN vote of new settlements around Jerusalem weakened his standing further.	以色列在联合国关于耶路撒冷问题的新提案的投票表决之后发表的声明进一步削弱了他的立场。


Indeed, Abbas’s time is running out.	事实上，阿巴斯已是明日黄花。


The only question is who will replace him.	唯一的问题是谁将取代他。


Meanwhile, Hamas is seeking to capitalize on its growing popularity by winning elections.	与此同时，哈马斯在寻求通过赢得选举最大程度地利用其日益增长的支持度。


In last October’s municipal elections in the West Bank – the first in six years – the largely secular Fatah party technically retained its authority; but voter turnout of only 55%, following Hamas’s call for a boycott, reflected waning support for the party.	在去年10月的约旦河西岸市政选举中——这是六年来的第一次选举——最大的世俗派法塔赫党在技术上重新赢得了政权，但在哈马斯��抵制号召下，投票比例只有55%，这反映出该党的支持度在下降。


Hamas is now widely seen as the true representative of Palestinian national ambitions, and is set to unite the Palestinians under its flag.	如今，哈马斯被广泛视为巴勒斯坦民族雄心的真正代表，是振臂高呼同意巴勒斯坦人民的不二之选。


But can Hamas find a basis for negotiations with Israel?	但哈马斯能够找到与以色列谈判的基点吗？


To be sure, Hamas has not abandoned its resistance mantra; even so, it has moderated its stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict over time.	平心而论，哈马斯仍未放弃其反抗大旗； 但尽管如此，它的巴以冲突立场还是在逐步温和。


Indeed, Hamas’s leaders have expressed support for the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.	事实上，哈马斯领导人已表明支持基于1967年界线建立巴勒斯坦国，将东耶路撒冷作为首都。


This gradual shift, combined with Hamas’s endorsement of Abbas’s diplomatic approach in the UN, suggests that Hamas now believes that a military victory over Israel is not possible.	这一逐渐的转变与哈马斯对阿巴斯联合国外交手段的支持一起，表明如今哈马斯认为对以色列取得军事胜利希望渺茫。


Palestinian and Israeli leaders will have to reconcile their differences and reach a diplomatic settlement.	巴勒斯坦和以色列领导人必须协调不同，达成外交和解。


Signs of Hamas’s shifting perspective are becoming increasingly apparent.	哈马斯态度的变化信号正在变得日益明显。


While Meshal maintained a hardline stance in his speech in Gaza (see below), in private discussions he expressed a readiness to accept a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.	尽管马沙尔在加沙讲话中继续保持了强硬立场，但在私下场合，他已表示准备接受在1967年界线的基础上建立巴勒斯坦国。


Meshal even stated that, if Israel reconsidered its attitude toward the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 – which calls upon the Arab world to recognize Israel’s right to exist in exchange for Israel’s return to its 1967 borders – Hamas would do the same.	马沙尔甚至表示，如果以色列重新考虑其对2002年阿拉伯和平倡议（Arab Peace Initiative of 2002，该倡议号召阿拉伯国家承认以色列存在的权利，以换取以色列退回1967年界线）的态度，哈马斯也将如此。


But, although Meshal welcomed the idea of future negotiations with Israel, he maintained that the time is not yet right.	但是，尽管马沙尔欢迎与以色列开展谈判的观点，但他仍坚持现在不是时候。


Hamas is convinced that Israel understands only the language of force and power, and it will not negotiate until Israel accepts the permanence of Palestinian demands.	哈马斯认定以色列只认武力和实力，除非以色列接受巴勒斯坦人民的要求永远不会屈服的现实，否则它是不会谈判的。


Israel may be starting to get the message.	以色列可能已经开始得到这一信息了。


In fact, the recent fighting drove some Israeli politicians, such as Giora Eiland, former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s national security adviser, to acknowledge that Hamas is a political reality that can no longer be ignored.	事实上，最近的战斗让某些以色列政客，如前总理沙龙的国家安全顾问艾兰德（Giora Eiland），承认哈马斯是一个不容忽视的政治存在。


Eiland even advised Israel’s government to recognize Hamas’s rule in Gaza, lift the siege, and negotiate a prolonged cease-fire directly with the movement.	艾兰德甚至建议以色列政府承认哈马斯对加沙的统治，撤去对加沙的包围，并与哈马斯直接谈判延长停火事宜。


But the success of such an approach depends on Israel’s readiness to engage Hamas, which it continues to regard as a terrorist group, and on the viability of Egyptian mediation.	但这一方案成功与否取决于以色列是否做好了承认哈马斯的准备，目前后者仍被以色列视为恐怖组织，只能通过埃及从中调停。


Here, Israel may come under growing pressure from its principal ally.	在这方面，以色列可能要面对来自其主要盟友的越来越大的压力。


Indeed, America’s acceptance of Islamist parties in the region, from Ennahda in Tunisia to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, suggests that skepticism of Islamist groups may be losing ground.	事实上，美国接受该地区的伊斯兰政党——从突尼斯复兴运动到埃及穆斯林兄弟会——这一事实表明对伊斯兰组织的怀疑正在消退。


It also raises doubts about whether the United States will maintain its strict policy of isolating Hamas.	这还引起了关于美国是否会保持其孤立哈马斯的严格政策的怀疑。


Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi’s success in mediating between Israel and Hamas demonstrated that Islamists can be flexible – even when it comes to Israel.	埃及总统穆尔西在以色列和哈马斯之间的成功调停表明伊斯兰组织是有弹性的，即便面对的是以色列。


There is room for moderation in both sides’ positions, but their leaders must be given the right platform on which to make the needed adjustments.	双方的立场都有缓和的空间，但它们的领导人必须得到正确的平台，以便形成必要的调整。


Can Asia Free Itself from the IMF?	亚洲能摆脱IMF吗？


BERKELEY – There has never been a question about the ultimate purpose of the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI), the system of Asian financial supports created in 2000 in that Thai city.	伯克利——清迈倡议（CMI）是2000年在泰国城市清迈建立的亚洲金融互助机制，它的终极目标从来就不是一个问题。


That purpose, of course, is to create an Asian Monetary Fund, i.e., a regional alternative to the International Monetary Fund, whose tender ministrations during the 1997-98 financial crisis have not been forgotten or forgiven.	那个目标当然就是建立一个亚洲货币基金，在该地区取代国际货币基金组织（IMF）的作用——1997~1998年金融危机期间IMF应对不力，令该地区的许多国家至今难以释怀。


So far, however, the CMI has been all horse and no saddle. Its credits and swaps have never been activated.	然而，迄今为止，CMI是有马无鞍——在其框架下承诺的信贷和货币互换还从来没有投入过实际应用。


The distress following the failure of Lehman Brothers would have been an obvious occasion.	雷曼兄弟破产之后的动荡期原本是激活这些机制的好时机。


Yet, revealingly, the Bank of Korea, the central bank hit hardest, negotiated a $30 billion foreign-currency swap with the United States Federal Reserve, not with its ASEAN+3 partners.	然而，该地区受冲击最严重的央行——韩国银行宁可跟美联储搞300亿美元的外汇互换，也不愿向“东盟+3”伙伴们求援，这很能说明一些问题。


Now, we are told, ASEAN+3 has achieved another great breakthrough, the so-called Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM), aimed at turning its bilateral swaps and credits into a regional reserve pool.	而现在，据说“东盟+3”又取得了一项重大突破，即所谓“清迈倡议多边化”——旨在把双边货币互换和信贷机制升级成地区性储备池的一个进程。


The goal was set in 2005, and last month ASEAN+3 finance ministers negotiated the details.	这一目标是2005年设立的，其实施细节则于上个月在“东盟+3”财长会议上商定。


They specified contributions to their $120 billion pool, set down borrowing entitlements, and allocated voting shares.	会上明确了各成员经济体向1200亿美元储备池出资的比例、借款条件以及投票权的分配等等。


The agreement on contributions is significant, it is said, because China and Japan will both contribute 32%.	人们都说就出资比例达成的共识很重要，因为中国和日本将各自出资32%。


In previous regional agreements, like capital subscriptions to the Asian Development Bank, China had always been treated as a second-rate power and asked to contribute less.	在此前的地区性协议中，比如在亚洲开发银行资本金出资比例上，中国总是被当作第二档的大国来对待，承担较小的出资义务。


Indeed, China had shunned Japan’s 1997 proposal to create an Asian Monetary Fund precisely because it worried that it would play second fiddle.	实际上，中国之所以对1997年日本提出的建立亚洲货币基金的倡议避而不谈，正是因为它担心自己只轮到一个次要角色。


That China is now acknowledged as a co-equal means that it will not stand in the way of further cooperation.	如今中国得到了和日本平起平坐的地位，这意味着它将不会阻碍进一步合作的开展。


Also significant, we are told, is the agreement to make decisions by simple majority, with countries’ votes to be roughly in proportion to their contributions.	人们还说确立简单多数的表决原则也很重要。 清迈倡议的投票权大体同各成员经济体出资比例相当，这意味着没有任何一个国家能够阻挠共同行动。


This means that no single country can block action, in contrast to the IMF executive board, which makes decisions by consensus, giving large countries like the United States de facto veto power.	与之相比，IMF的执行董事会的决策基础是意见统一，因为美国等大国拥有事实上的一票否决权。


But do these new rules really matter?	然而，有了这些新规则是不是就万事大吉了？


Disbursing more than 20% of the credits available to a country still requires that it first reach an agreement with the IMF, and 20% of a country’s entitlement is actually less than it contributes to the pool.	清迈倡议规定，当一国需提取的资金超过其可用信贷额度的20%，就必须经过IMF同意，20%只不过是各国出资的一小部分而已。


This would appear to nullify the very purpose of the arrangement, which is to free Asia from the IMF.	这一规定足以抵消整个倡议的初衷——使亚洲不必再仰IMF之鼻息。


While there is a plan to raise and then eliminate the 20% threshold, this is left to some future, unspecified date.	就算“东盟+3”计划逐步提高直至取消20%这个上限，那也是未来说不清哪一天的事情。


The reason for the contradiction is straightforward.	这种自相矛盾的原因很简单。


Countries putting money on the barrelhead want assurances that their resources will not be used frivolously, and they want to know that they will be repaid.	各国拿出来的是现金，谁都不希望自己的钱被轻率地用掉，而且最好能得到还款的保证。


But regional neighbors find it hard to criticize one another’s policies and demand course corrections.	但是作为同一地区的邻邦，各国都不便过多批评别国的政策，或提出修正方向的要求。


Political sensitivities run especially high in Asia.	亚洲地区有许多事务在政治上特别敏感。


Even in Europe, with its long history of cooperation, surveillance and conditionality are outsourced to the IMF.	就算是拥有长期合作历史的欧洲各国，其互相之间贷款安排的监测（surveillance）和贷款条件（conditionality）的拟定等职能也是外包给IMF的。


Revealingly, the Fund, not the European Union, has taken the lead in negotiating emergency assistance packages for Hungary and Latvia.	比如说，最近向匈牙利和拉脱维亚提供紧急援助的谈判，牵头的就是IMF而不是欧盟。


Delinking the CMIM from the IMF will require Asian countries to undertake hard-hitting reviews of one another’s policies and to demand difficult policy adjustments.	清迈倡议多边化进程如果要脱离IMF的制约，亚洲各国就必须直面互相之间不留情面的政策批评，必须听取调整政策的呼声，不管调整有多么困难。


Here ASEAN+3 talks the talk.	在这方面，“东盟+3”已经触及了一些实质。


Its May agreement included a commitment to establish a regional surveillance unit.	5月份的财长会议共同承诺建立一个地区监测机构。


But there is no agreement on where to situate it or how to staff it. It could be placed within ASEAN’s Secretariat in Jakarta.	尽管如此，这个机构的选址和人员构成仍是悬而未决的问题。


It could be placed inside the Asian Development Bank in Manila. It could be given to the “neutral” Northeast Asian country, Korea.	它可能会设在东盟秘书处所在地雅加达，也可能设在位于马尼拉的亚洲开发银行内部，还可能被安排在“中立”的东北亚国家韩国。


The outcome matters – which is why governments are fighting over it. Recall how the fateful decision to situate the IMF in Washington, DC enhanced the influence of the US Treasury just down the street.	究竟花落谁家，结果大不一样，所以各国政府正在为此较劲——大家都还记得，IMF设在华盛顿特区这一历史性抉择，是如何自然而然地扩大了美国财政部的影响力。


These dilemmas can be finessed by giving both surveillance responsibilities and the actual power to disburse funds to an independent board insulated from national politics.	缓和这些难点有一个办法，那就是把监测职能和资金调拨权都委托给一个超然于国家政治的独立董事会。


Its members, with statutory independence and long terms in office, could function like the monetary policy committee of a central bank.	这个董事会的成员，其职位独立于各国政府，任期也设置得相当长，整个董事会就像一个中央银行的货币政策委员会那样运作。


They could issue a Financial Stability Report that bluntly flags weak policies and financial vulnerabilities. And they could demand policy adjustments as a condition for disbursing funds.	它负责发布金融稳定报告，铁面无私地指出各国政策的软肋和金融体系的弱点，还可以要求有关国家做出政策调整，以方便调拨资金。


The IMF could then be shown the door.	一旦这样一个董事会建立起来，IMF就可以靠边站了。


This scheme wouldn’t solve all of Asia’s problems. But it would at least head off one danger, namely the urge to accumulate even more reserves.	这一纲领并不能一下子解决亚洲的所有问题，但它至少可以扫除一个危险，也就是不得不继续扩大外汇储备规模的危险。


Recent volatility reinforces this temptation.	近期的金融振荡加强了这一冲动。


If Asian countries succumb, global imbalances and all their associated problems will return.	如果亚洲国家屈从于这种冲动，全球收支不平衡和有关的种种麻烦都会卷土重来。


Pooling regional reserves as a way of making them go further is a better alternative.	把地区储备汇到一个池子里，从而给这些钱找到个去处，这是个不错的办法。


But making this vision a reality requires further bold thinking.	但把这一构想变成现实，需要更有突破性的思维。


Can Business Be Ethical?	商业道德何处寻？


MELBOURNE – Something new is happening at Harvard Business School.	发自墨尔本-哈佛商学院最近出现了些新情况。


As graduation nears for the first class to complete their Master of Business Administration since the onset of the global financial crisis, students are circulating an oath that commits them to pursue their work “in an ethical manner”; “to strive to create sustainable economic, social, and environmental prosperity worldwide”; and to manage their enterprises “in good faith, guarding against decisions and behavior that advance my own narrow ambitions but harm the enterprise and the societies it serves.”	当全球金融危机之后的第一批MBA学员临近毕业之时，同学们都在暗自思量自己是否要宣读一份誓言，宣誓内容包括：“以道德的方式”去从事自己的工作； “努力在全世界创造可持续的经济、社会和环境财富”；


The wording of the new MBA oath draws on one adopted in 2006 by the Thunderbird School of Global Management, based in Arizona. Nevertheless, the fact that it has been taken up by the world’s most famous business school is significant.	虽然这些MBA新誓言的措辞大都取材于美国亚利桑那州雷鸟国际管理学院2006年就采用的誓言文本，但整个事件依然意义重大，因为采用者是哈佛商学院，世界上最著名的商学院。


As of this writing, about 20% of the Harvard graduating class have taken the oath.	截至本文发表之时，商学院毕业班里面已经有20%的学员接受了这份誓词。


That will, of course, prompt cynics to ask: “What about the other 80%?”  But those who have taken the oath are part of a larger turn toward ethics that has followed the recent flood of revelations of dishonesty and greed in the financial sector.	虽然有些刻薄的批评家会问：“还有其他80%呢？ ”但这至少说明有一批人在目睹了最近被大批揭露的经济欺诈和贪婪丑行之后，转而对道德有所诉求。


Interest in business ethics courses has surged, and student activities at leading business schools are more focused than ever before on making business serve long-term social values.	人们对商业伦理课程兴趣急升，而顶尖商学院的学生活动也比从前更加关注如何令商业行为服务于长期社会价值的议题。


Business ethics has always had problems that are distinct from those of other professions, such as medicine, law, engineering, dentistry, or nursing.	其实相对于医学、法律、工程、牙科或者护理这些职业的所谓道德，商业道德总有些特殊区别。


A member of my family recently had an eye problem, and was referred by her general practitioner to an eye surgeon. The surgeon examined the eye, said that it didn’t need surgery, and sent her back to the general practitioner.	比如我的一位亲戚眼睛出了毛病，她的医生将其转给了另一个眼科医生，但眼科医生检查之后认为没必要做手术，于是又把她转回去了原来的医生处。


That is no more than one would expect from a doctor who is true to the ethics of the profession, my medical friends tell me.	医学界的朋友告诉我说，对于一个忠于其职业道德的医生来说，上述事情是再正常不过的了。


By contrast, it’s hard to imagine going to a car dealer and being advised that you don’t really need a new car.	相比之下，你能想象一个汽车经销商忠告你说你根本没必要买辆新车吗？


For physicians, the idea of swearing an oath to act ethically goes back to Hippocrates.	对于医生来说，对职业道德起誓的理念可以追溯到古希腊时期的“医药之父”希波克拉底。


Every profession will have its rogues, of course, no matter what oaths are sworn, but many health care professionals have a real commitment to serving the best interests of their clients.	虽然无论发什么誓，每个行业都会有一些害群之马，但许多卫生保健方面的专业人士确实认定自己是要为顾客利益最大化服务的。


Do business managers have a commitment to anything more than the success of their company and to making money?	那么对于公司经理来说，有没有比追求企业成功和赚钱更重要的使命存在？


It would be hard to say that they do. Indeed, many business leaders deny that there is any conflict between self-interest and the interests of all.	这可很难说，事实上许多企业领导人都否认个人私利与整体利益是互相冲突的。


Adam Smith’s “invisible hand,” they believe, ensures that the pursuit of our own interests in the free market will further the interests of all.	他们认为亚当·斯密所谓“看不见的手”已经说明了在自由市场之中，追求个人利益就能促进整体利益。


In that tradition, the economist Milton Friedman wrote, in his 1962 book Capitalism and Freedom :  “there is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.”	在传统上，经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼在他1962年的著作《资本主义与自由》中写道：“对于企业来说有且只有一个社会责任——那就是在遵守游戏规则的情况下尽量利用资源并进行营利活动，而所谓游戏规则，指的就是除欺诈和作伪行为之外的开放、自由竞争。


For the true believers in this creed, the suggestion that the manager of a business should strive for anything except maximizing value for shareholders is heresy.	”在弗里德曼这一观点的信徒看来，一个经理人如果摒弃了股东利益最大化而是为其他目标奔忙的话，那就是离经叛道之举。


But, while the global financial crisis did reveal fraud on a massive scale, the underlying cause of the crisis was not fraud but the failure of the market to knit together the self-interest of those who sold and resold sub-prime mortgages with the interests of the investors in financial institutions that bought them.	但即使全球金融危机确实揭露了大范围的欺诈行为，人们却发现危机的深层原因并不是欺诈，而是虽然有发行商不断发行次级抵押债券并吸引金融机构不断购��，但市场却在满足了前者的私欲之后抛弃了后者。


The fact that an even larger catastrophe would have resulted had governments not been willing to draw on taxpayer funds to bail out the banks was an additional blow to those who have told us to trust the unregulated market.	而政府为防止更大的灾祸不致降临，被迫叫全体纳税人掏钱去拯救银行的事实也无疑是给了那些打着“无限制市场”旗号的人一记响亮的耳光。


The MBA oath is an attempt to replace the Friedmanite view of the social responsibility of business with something quite different: a management profession that commits itself to promoting the long-term, sustainable welfare of all.	因此哈佛现在的MBA誓词就是尝试用另一种理念去取代弗里德曼对于企业社会责任的看法：一个承诺要促进社会全体成员长期、可持续福利的管理专业理念。


The sense of a professional ethic is conveyed by clauses in the oath that require managers to “develop both myself and other managers under my supervision so that the profession continues to grow and contribute to the well-being of society.”	通过要求经理人“推动自身及其下属管理人员的进步，令经理人职业得以继续壮大并对全社会的福祉有所贡献”，这份誓词本身就已经传达了一种职业道德理念。


Another clause stresses accountability to one’s peers, a hallmark of professional self-regulation.	而另外一条宣言则体现了这种职业的自我约束机制，要求经理人对他人负责。


As for the ultimate objectives of the managerial profession, they are, as we have seen, nothing less than “to create sustainable economic, social, and environmental prosperity worldwide.”	宣言写道：管理的终极目标无疑是“努力在全世界创造可持续的经济、社会和环境财富”。


Can such a code really take hold in the competitive world of business?  Perhaps the best hope for its success can be glimpsed in a comment made to a New York Times reporter by Max Anderson, one of the pledge’s student organizers: “There is the feeling that we want our lives to mean something more and to run organizations for the greater good,” he said.  If enough business people would conceive their interests in those terms, we might see the emergence of an ethically-based profession of business managers.	或许人们能从马克思·安德森接受《纽约时报》采访时所说的话中看到一些希望的曙光，作为本次宣誓活动的其中一个学生组织者，他说：“我们感觉到生活中应该有一些更有意义的事情，并希望能让我们的企业服务于更宏大的社会利益。 ”如有更多商业人士能遵照上述宣言来厘定自身利益的话，那么越来越多以德为纲的职业经理人操守，就将涌现在我们眼前。


The Way Back for Monetary Policy	货币政策的回归之路


SEOUL – The central banks of major advanced economies have been navigating uncharted territory in recent years.	首尔—近几年来，主要发达经济体央行纷纷进入从未涉足过的领域。


While their use of a range of unconventional monetary-policy tools has had benefits, it has also generated significant uncertainty, without fully stabilizing the world economy.	它们对一系列非常规货币政策工具的使用取得了一些效果，也带来了严重的不确定性，世界经济也没有获得充分稳定。


Now the time has come to head back toward more familiar policy terrain.	现在，是时候回归更加熟悉的政策领域了。


Following the 2008 financial meltdown, the US Federal Reserve cut the policy rate to almost zero and pursued so-called quantitative easing (QE), by purchasing long-term securities from the public and private sectors.	2008年金融崩溃以来，美联储将政策利率减只几乎为零的水平，并采取了所谓的量化宽松，即从公共和私人部门购买长期证券。


The central banks of the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom soon launched similar unconventional programs.	欧盟、日本和英国央行很快也推出了类似的非常规政策。


The result was a vast amount of cheap liquidity that helped to stabilize the financial sector, restore stock and real-estate prices, and increase domestic demand.	结果是巨量廉价流动性帮助稳定了金融部门，恢复了股票和房地产价格，也提高了内需。


All of this helped to limit the fallout of the financial crisis and push the global economy toward recovery.	所有这些都有助于遏制金融危机的后果，让全球经济走向复苏。


But this aggressive approach has its limits.	但这一激进方针尤其局限性。


Indeed, as Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has pointed out, after years of effort, the benefits of unconventional monetary policy are diminishing, while the costs are increasing.	事实上，印度储备银行行长拉古兰·拉詹（Raghuram Rajan）指出，实施多年后，非常规货币政策的收益正在下降，而成本正在上升。


Recognizing this, the Fed ended QE at the end of last year and raised its policy rate by 25 basis points.	意识到这一点，美联储在去年年底结束了量化宽松，并将政策利率提高25个基点。


The rate hikes will likely continue this year, though the speed and extent of the increases are uncertain.	今年美联储可能继续升息，尽管速度和程度仍不确定。


Yet the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have decided to sustain their QE programs.	但欧洲央行和日本银行仍决定维持量化宽松计划。


Moreover, they have adopted a negative interest-rate policy – which amounts to charging a fee for bank reserves – to revitalize depressed demand.	此外，它们还采取了负政策利率——即向银行准备金收费——以重振萎靡的需求。


Unsurprisingly, the effects on inflation and real output have been limited.	毫不奇怪，对通胀和真实产出的影响非常有限。


Monetary policy is an effective means of managing inflation and can boost employment and output in a recession.	货币政策是管理通货膨胀的有效途径，也可以在衰退期间提振就业和产出。


Lowering interest rates below zero, however, has hurt banks’ balance sheets, reducing their lending capacity.	但是，将利率降到零以下损害了银行资产负债表，降低了它们的贷款能力。


As a result, it has failed to increase business investment.	结果，该政策没能提高商业投资。


Even low positive interest rates, if maintained for a prolonged period, could backfire, fueling asset bubbles and enabling household and corporate debt to grow to unsustainable levels.	即使在低正利率情况下，如果维持很长一段时间，也可能适得其反，助长资产泡沫，导致家庭和公司债务增至不可持续水平。


Meanwhile, asset purchases have caused the balance sheets of major central banks to swell to unprecedented levels.	与此同时，资产购买操作导致主要央行资产负债表规模膨胀至前所未有的水平。


The orderly rewinding that is now needed will be very difficult to manage.	现在，央行需要有序缩减规模，但这非常难以管理。


Beyond the domestic sphere, unconventional monetary policies have had far-reaching spillover effects.	除了国内影响，非常规货币政策还带来了影响深远的溢出效应。


In particular, they have sent emerging economies, with their financial links to advanced economies, on a capital-flow roller-coaster ride.	特别是，它们发达经济体和新兴经济体之间的金融联系给后者带去了资本流过山车。


First, the emerging economies were flooded with liquidity flowing from the advanced economies.	首先，新兴经济体遭遇来自发达经济体的巨量流动性流入。


Large capital inflows led to overheating and inflation, asset-price bubbles, and rapid currency appreciation.	巨大的资本流入导致了过热和通胀、资产价格泡沫和货币迅速升值。


Then, the Fed’s tapering of QE led to the sudden withdrawal of that capital, creating a risk of financial disruption and currency crises.	接着，美联储退出量化宽松又导致资本猛然抽离，带来了金融破坏和货币危机风险。


The emerging economies’ monetary authorities have struggled to cope with these shocks using available instruments, including interest rates, exchange rates, prudential regulation, and capital controls.	新兴经济体货币当局难以运用可用工具（包括利率、汇率、审慎监管和资本管制）处理这些冲击。


But that is not all.	但这还不是全部。


Because advanced economies’ unconventional monetary policies have also depreciated their currencies and stimulated their exports, the risk of competitive devaluations is now a real concern.	由于发达经济体的非常规货币政策还拉低了它们的货币、刺激了它们的出口，竞争性贬值如今已成为你一个实实在在的威胁。


If, say, the BOJ moved to intervene outright in the exchange-rate markets to depreciate the yen, the odds that the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Korea would opt for weaker currencies would increase.	如果（比如）日本银行开始大举干预汇率市场，让日元贬值，那么中国人民银行和大韩银行选择货币贬值的可能性也会增加。


All of this would be highly destabilizing, particularly for emerging economies like Brazil that are facing a brutal combination of internal and external challenges.	所有这些都具有高度破坏性，特别是对内外交困的巴西新兴经济体而言。


Instead of viewing all of this as motivation to back away from unconventional monetary policy, however, some economists are recommending that the ECB and the BOJ pursue an even more extraordinary policy: so-called “helicopter drops.”	但是，一些经济学家并不把所有这些因素视为退出非常规货币政策的理由，反而建议欧洲央行和日本银行采取更加夸张的政策：所谓的“直升机撒钱”。


The idea, introduced by the Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman in 1969, entails the distribution of freshly printed money directly to the public, with a commitment from the central bank never to withdraw it.	直升机撒钱的概念由诺贝尔经济学奖获得者米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）在1969年提出，意指直接向公众分派新印钞票，并且央行承诺永不收回。


As Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke points out, monetary finance is essentially equivalent to a broad-based tax cut, with the central bank committing to purchase government debt.	美联储前主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）指出，货币融资本质上等价于款基减税，由央行承诺购买政府债务。


Among the influential economists advocating helicopter drops for Europe and Japan are Bernanke, Willem Buiter, Kemal Derviş, and Adair Turner.	支持欧洲和日本采取直升机撒钱的著名经济学家包括伯南克、韦勒姆·布依特（Willem Buiter）、克马尔·德尔维什（Kemal Derviş）和阿代尔·特纳（Adair Turner）。


They argue that even if it is not an ideal solution, it can cure their economies.	他们指出，即使这不是理想方案，至少可以助经济一臂之力。


For governments restrained by high public debt and deficits, the proposal is certainly tempting.	对困于高企的公债和赤字的政府来说，这一方案着实 有诱惑力。


But helicopter drops are highly risky.	但直升机撒钱风险很大。


As Bernanke himself warns, such a policy could undermine central banks’ long-term independence.	伯南克本人就警告说，这一政策可能破坏央行的长期独立性。


Moreover, it would enable governments to monetize fiscal deficits without constraints, and potentially to abuse money-printing power for political considerations.	此外，它使政府能够不受约束地将财政赤字货币化，并有可能出于政治目的滥用印钞权力。


And it might not even work as intended, with the money benefiting only certain groups.	它也未必能取得意料中的效果，撒下去的钱可能只是令某些群体受益。


Given the difficulty of regaining lost sovereignty and credibility, central banks must keep helicopter drops as a last resort.	主权和信誉一旦失去，重新获得是十分困难的，因此，央行必须将直升机撒钱作为最后一招。


The reality is that recourse to easy windfalls produced through loose monetary policy could have serious long-term repercussions, especially if they are used to delay efforts to address underlying issues.	现实是对宽松的货币政策所营造的飞来横财的依赖可能带来严重的长期影响，特别是如果它们被用来延迟解决基本问题的措施的话。


Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic revitalization strategy – so-called Abenomics – is a case in point.	日本首相安倍晋三的经济复兴战略——所谓的“安倍经济学”就是一个例子。


The strategy was supposed to use a mix of monetary and fiscal expansion to help facilitate structural reforms.	该战略计划综合运用货币和财政扩张刺激结构改革。


Yet the reforms have faced delays, and employment and output growth has been limited.	但改革面临着推迟，而就业和产出增长非常有限。


What advanced-country central banks should be doing now is implementing monetary policies aimed at restoring their credibility, while governments focus on implementing effective fiscal policies and structural reforms.	发达国家央行现在应该做的是实施重塑信誉的货币政策，而政府应该专注于实施有效的财政政策和结构改革。


Crucially, advanced and emerging economies must coordinate their policies, in order to foster confidence and strengthen growth.	关键是，发达和新兴经济体必须进行政策协调，以提振信心、提高增长。


This is the only way back onto the path of sustained global economic health.	这是回归可全球经济持续健康的唯一办法。


Last month, finance ministers and central-bank governors of the G-20 countries acknowledged the limitations of monetary stimulus and embraced structural reforms, infrastructure investment, and fiscal policy as the key to future growth.	上个月，G-20各国财长和央行行长承认了货币政策的局限性，并提出结构改革、基础设施投资和财政政策才是未来增长的关键。


But they have yet to back their words with strong action.	但他们并没有用身体力行来支持他们的言论。


Their credibility – not to mention the fate of the global economy – is on the line.	他们的信誉——以及全球经济——命悬一线。


Cancer by the Numbers	数字里的癌症


PHILADELPHIA – It is difficult to communicate medical risk to a large audience, especially when official recommendations conflict with emotional narratives.	发自费城——与一个庞大的听众群体交流医学风险是一件相当艰难的事情，尤其是在官方建议与人们的情绪化描述相抵触的时候。


That is why, when the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) in 2009 presented its guidelines for breast cancer screening, which recommended against routine screenings for asymptomatic women in their 40’s and biennial, rather than annual, mammograms for women over 50, the public responded with confused fury.	而这也是美国预防医学工作组（USPSTF）在2009年所遇到的问题，当时该机构发布了其乳腺癌医学筛查指引，建议将原有的40岁以上无症状妇女每两年做一次筛查改为所有50岁以上的女性每年拍一张乳房X光片，结果却引发了公众的极大愤怒。


The key to understanding this response is to be found in the nebulous zone between mathematics and psychology.	其实我们可以在数学和心理学之间的模糊区域中找到解读这一公众回应的关键点。


People’s discomfort with the findings stemmed largely from faulty intuition: if earlier and more frequent screening increases the likelihood of detecting a possibly fatal cancer, then more screening is always desirable.	人们对于上述发现的不满在很大程度上源自于一种错误的直觉：如果更早且更频密的筛查可以增加发现某种可致命癌症的几率，那么更多的筛查就是应该的。


If more screening can detect breast cancer in asymptomatic women in their 40’s, wouldn’t it also detect cancer in women in their 30’s?	这么说来倘若更多的筛查可以在40岁年龄段的临床无症状妇女中发现乳腺癌，那何不把它提前到30岁？


And, if so, why not, reductio ad absurdum, begin monthly mammograms at age 15?	如果这也可行的话，按照逻辑上的归缪法，干脆从15岁开始每月照一张X光片好了。


The answer, of course, is that such intensive screening would cause more harm than good.	很显然，如此频密的筛查只会弊大于利。


But striking the proper balance is challenging.	而在此之间寻找一个合适的平衡点也是相当有难度的。


Unfortunately, it is not easy to weigh breast cancer’s dangers against the cumulative effects of radiation from dozens of mammograms over the years, the invasiveness of biopsies, and the debilitating impact of treating slow-growing tumors that would never have proven fatal.	其中最不幸的，莫过于我们知道连续多年进行X光照射会产生辐射累积效应，活体组织检查会对人体造成伤害，同时治疗那些缓慢生长且永远不会证明是恶性的肿瘤也将损害患者的健康，但这些因素相对于乳腺癌的危险性该如何权衡则并非易事。


The USPSTF recently issued an even sharper warning about the prostate-specific antigen test for prostate cancer, after concluding that the test’s harms outweigh its benefits.	美国预防医学工作组最近还发布了一个对前列腺癌特定抗原检测的更明确警告，认为该检测对病人的伤害大于其益处。


Chest X-rays for lung cancer and Pap tests for cervical cancer have received similar, albeit less definitive, criticism.	此外肺癌胸部X光检测与子宫颈癌帕氏抹片检查都受到了类似（但不那么明确）的批评。


The next step in the reevaluation of cancer screening was taken last year, when researchers at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy announced that the costs of screening for breast cancer were often minimized, and that the benefits were much exaggerated.	由于达特茅斯卫生政策研究中心的研究者们宣称乳腺癌筛查的益处往往被过度夸大，而其费用则被刻意低估，因此重新评估癌症筛查的下一步工作也在去年同步展开。


Indeed, even a mammogram (almost 40 million are given annually in the US) that detects a cancer does not necessarily save a life.	事实上，即便是一张可以检测出癌症的乳房X光片（全美每年为此支出达4000万美元）也不一定能拯救一条生命。


The Dartmouth researchers found that, of the estimated 138,000 breast cancers detected annually in the US, the test did not help 120,000-134,000 of the afflicted women.	达特茅斯的研究者们发现，在全美每年检测出的13. 8万乳腺癌案例中，乳房X光测试对其中12~13.


The cancers either were growing so slowly that they did not pose a problem, or they would have been treated successfully if discovered clinically later (or they were so aggressive that little could be done).	4万遭受病痛折磨的妇女们并无帮助。 那些癌瘤要么太小以至于未能威胁，要么在过一段时间后的临床检测中发现后（或者疯狂扩散而使人无计可施）反而更能得到有效治疗。


A related concern is measurement.	与之相关则是测量标准的问题。


Since the patient’s duration of survival is calculated from the time of diagnosis, more sensitive screening starts the clock sooner.	由于病人的存活期是从诊断结论下达后开始计算的，那么更灵敏的筛查肯定能更早得出结论。


Survival times can thus appear longer, even if the earlier diagnosis had no real effect on survival.	于是在早期诊断对病人的生存并无实质影响的情况下，存活期似乎却变得更长了。


Naturally, individual cases dictate which tests and treatments are best, but an additional concern about frequent screenings is the problem of false positives.	毫无疑问，适用于不同病例的检测和治疗方案各有不同，但对于频繁的筛查来说，另一个要注意的地方就是假阳性的问题。


When one is looking for something relatively rare (whether cancer or terrorists), it is wise to remember that a positive result is often false.	当您在寻找一项相对罕见的东西之时（不管是癌症还是恐怖分子），最好记住某些阳性结论往往会是错误的。


Either the “detected” pathology is not there, or it is not the sort that will kill you.	要么那个“检测出来的”病理状态根本不存在，要么就并不是致命的。


Consider the following hypothetical example.	请参见下面这个假想的例子。


Assume that the screening test for a certain cancer is 95% accurate, meaning that if someone has the cancer, the test will be positive 95% of the time.	假设某特定癌症筛查方式的准确率为95%，那么说如果有个人患上了这种癌症，那么该测试呈现阳性的概率为95%。


Next, assume that if someone does not have the cancer, the test will be positive only 1% of the time.	再推一步，假设有人并未患有这种癌症而呈现阳性的概率为1%。


Finally, assume further that 0.5% of people – one of every 200 – actually have this type of cancer.	最后，我们进一步假设有0. 5%的人——也就是1/200——真的会患上这种癌症。


If your doctor tells you that you have tested positive, does this mean that you are likely to have the cancer?	那如果你的医生告诉你说测试结果呈阳性，是否就意味着你多半会患有此病？


Surprisingly, the answer is no.	令人吃惊的是，答案是否定的。


A little arithmetic shows why.	让我们做一个简单的演算。


Suppose that 100,000 screenings are conducted.	假设医院共做了10万次检测。


On average, 500 people will have the cancer.	其中平均有500人会得癌症。


Since 95% of them will test positive, there will be, on average, 475 positive tests.	由于患病者检测出阳性的概率是95%，那么平均会475个阳性结果。 而对于剩下那9.


Of the 99,500 people without cancer, 1% will test positive, yielding 995 false positives out of 1,470 positive tests.	95万健康人来说，由于出现阳性结果的概率是1%，那么就会有995个假阳性出现，因此这10万人中会有475+995=1470个阳性结果。


In other words, even if you tested positive for the cancer, the probability that you actually have it is only about 32%.	换句话说，即便你的癌症检测结果呈阳性，你真正患有该病的可能性也只有32%。


That answer is decidedly counterintuitive and hence easy to reject.	这个答案显然是违反直觉的，因此也很容易引发抵触心理。


Most people do not think in terms of probabilities other than “50-50” and “one in a million.”	其实绝大多数人都是以“50-50”或者“百万分之一”来理解可能性这个词的。


But, whatever the probabilities, the fact remains that there will generally be a high percentage of false positives when screening for rare conditions.	但不管可能性几何，事实依然是在筛查某些罕见病症时总会出现高比例的假阳性结果。


Moreover, the patients who receive these faulty diagnoses will usually receive further treatments, which often will have harmful consequences.	此外，那些受到错误诊断的患者通常会接受进一步治疗，也往往会带来有害的后果。


The “availability heuristic” – a pervasive cognitive bias caused by people’s tendency to estimate the likelihood of a phenomenon by how easily an example of it comes to mind – routinely clouds the issue.	由于人类倾向于通过联想起相关事例的难易程度来评估一种情况出现的可能性，而这种认知偏好又是普遍存在的——也就是所谓的“可用性启发（availability heuristic）”，通常会令事情变得更加模糊不清。


People relate much more readily to a friend dying of cancer than they do to statistics about strangers suffering from the consequences of testing.	相对于一个陌生人因为筛查测试而受苦的统计概率，人们更容易联想起一个挣扎在癌症死亡线上的熟人。


But the bottom line is that the ongoing reevaluation of cancer screening is evidence-based.	但对此最重要的底线在于目前对癌症筛查的重新评估是有证据支撑的。


When it comes to policymaking, decisions must be based on facts and argument, not anecdotes and stories, however compelling those narratives may be.	当这涉及到政策制定的时候，决策必须基于事实和论证，而不是道听途说——不管这些描述究竟有多么活灵活现。


Cancer Care for the Developing World	发展中世界的癌症治疗


BOSTON – More than four decades ago, US President Richard Nixon, inspired by early and encouraging results that showed that chemotherapy could cure diseases such as acute lymphoblastic leukemia and Hodgkin’s lymphoma, declared “war on cancer.”	波士顿—四十多年前，美国总统尼克松宣布“向癌症开战”。 让他感到欢欣鼓舞以至于做出这一决定的是化疗能够治愈急性淋巴细胞白血病和何杰金氏淋巴瘤的该疾病的令人鼓舞的早期结果。


Since then, steady progress has been made using chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation to treat and cure an increasing number of cancer patients.	自此以后，在使用化疗、手术和放疗治疗和治愈越来越多癌症患者方面取得了稳步进展。


But access to these life-saving advances remains elusive in low- and middle-income countries, where the majority of cancer patients reside today.	但中低收入国家仍难以接触到这些救命进步，而当今世界大部分癌症患者都在中低收入国家。


In the United States, more than 80% of patients with breast cancer are long-term survivors, and more than 80% of cancer-stricken children survive.	在美国，80%以上的乳腺癌患者都能长期生存，80%以上的癌症儿童可以存活。


In my nearly 40 years as an oncologist at Harvard University, I have cared for thousands of patients who would have had little chance of survival were it not for chemotherapy.	我在哈佛大学做了近40年肿瘤专家，医治过数千名患者，如果不是化疗，他们生存机会渺茫。


Many of the patients who received treatment in the 1970s are alive and well today; their children are now productive adults.	许多患者在20世纪70年代开始接受治疗，至今仍活得好好的； 他们的孩子们现在已长大成人并有生育能力。


But it was not until I began working in Rwanda in 2011 that I fully grasped the power of the tools at my disposal, by witnessing the impact of their absence.	但直到2011年我开始在卢旺达工作才充分认识到我手中的工具的力量，因为我目睹了没有它们所带来的影响。


Stepping into the pediatric cancer ward at the central public referral hospital in Kigali was like traveling back in time.	进入基加利公立中心医院儿科癌症病房就像进入了时间旅行。


Outcomes among Rwandan children with Wilms’ tumor, a form of kidney cancer that rarely afflicts adults, mirrored those in the US 80 years ago, before the availability of drugs that today enable more than 90% of diagnosed American children to survive.	罹患维尔姆斯瘤（Wilms’ tumor，成年人很少得的肾癌）的卢旺达儿童的最后结局如同80年前的美国，而如今，药物可以让90%的确诊美国儿童病患存活下来。


According to Rwanda’s health minister, Agnes Binagwaho, the cancer ward in Kigali resembled the HIV/AIDS unit when she was a pediatrician at the hospital, a decade earlier.	根据卢旺达卫生部长比纳格瓦霍（Agnes Binagwaho）的说法，十年前，当她还在医院当儿科医师时，基加利的癌症病房就像是艾滋病单位。


With no antiretroviral therapy, the prescription for HIV/AIDS was food and rest – meaning that infection essentially amounted to a death sentence.	在没有逆抗转录病毒疗法的情况下，给艾滋病开的药方不外乎食物和休息——这意味着染上艾滋病无异于被判死刑。


At the time, some were caught, if only briefly, on the wrong side of history.	当时，一些人——还好只是暂时地——站在了历史的错误面。


In 2001, a senior US official claimed that it would be impossible to treat HIV/AIDS in Africa, owing to its “complexity” and high cost.	2001年，一名资深美国官员宣称治疗非洲的艾滋病是不可能的，因为非洲太“复杂”��成本太高。


But he – along with the many others who shared his view – was proved wrong.	但他——以及众多与他持有相同观点的人——被证明是错误的。


Today, rates of treatment adherence in Africa among HIV-positive patients with access to drugs have long exceeded those in the US.	今天，非洲能获得药物的艾滋病毒阳性病人坚持治疗的比率早已超过了美国。


Indeed, Rwanda was one of the first countries to achieve universal access to AIDS treatment.	事实上，卢旺达是世界上第一批实现艾滋病治疗全民普及的国家之一。


Despite this experience, the prospect of effective cancer treatment in Africa has been met with similar skepticism.	尽管如此，非洲有效癌症治疗的前景仍然遭到了类似的怀疑。


True, cancer therapy is complex.	诚然，癌症治疗十分复杂。


It requires a broad range of diagnostic and therapeutic capacities – pathology, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and targeted medicines – together with the knowledge and skill to safely administer these life-saving treatments.	它要求一系列诊断和治疗能力——病理学、手术、放疗、化疗和靶向药物——还需要安全实施这些救命治疗的知识和技能。


But the Butaro Cancer Center of Excellence and others like it have proved that it is possible to treat cancer patients safely and effectively, even in poor, rural settings.	但巴特罗卓越癌症中心（Butaro Cancer Center of Excellence）和其他医院证明可以安全有效地治疗癌症患者，哪怕是农村环境下的穷人患者。


Thanks to the Rwandan Ministry of Health, Partners In Health, and the Boston-based Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, the Butaro Center has treated more than 3,000 cancer patients, most of whom are referred from outside the region, since its dedication in July 2012 by former President Bill Clinton and Binagwaho.	感谢卢旺达卫生部、健康伙伴基金会（Partners In Health）和位于波士顿的丹娜-法伯癌症研究所（Dana-Farber Cancer Institute），自2012年7月由前总统克林顿和比纳格瓦霍建立以来，巴特罗中心现已治疗了3,000多名癌症患者，其中大部分由该地区之外转入。


Support from the Jeff Gordon Children’s Foundation, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, LIVESTRONG, and private donors has also been critical to this achievement.	来自杰夫·戈登儿童基金会（Jeff Gordon Children’s Foundation）、乳腺癌研究基金会（Breast Cancer Research Foundation）、坚强活着基金会（LIVESTRONG）和私人赞助者的支持也是巴特罗中心成功的关键。


Fortunately, some major institutions are already stepping up to bolster this effort.	幸运的是，一些大机构已开始采取行动支持这一努力。


The World Health Organization, together with the International Union for Cancer Control, is re-examining the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines for Cancer to identify more accurately which cancers are most responsive to treatment, and which place the heaviest burdens on populations.	世界卫生组织与国际癌症控制联盟（International Union for Cancer Control）一起，正在二次考察世卫组织重要癌症药品模型列表（WHO Model List of Essential Medicines for Cancer），以更准确地识别哪些癌症对治疗反应最大，哪些癌症给人口带来最大负担。


The most efficient approach to reducing global cancer mortality rates would be to bring existing therapies to cancer patients in developing countries.	降低全球癌症致命性的最有效办法是将现有癌症患者疗法移植到发展中国家。


Add to that international funding for cancer treatment, like that which was mobilized for HIV/AIDS through the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and The Global Fund, and cancer mortality rates in developing countries could decline considerably – and quickly.	除此之外还有针对癌症治疗的国际资金——就像通过美国总统艾滋病治疗紧急计划（US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief）和全球基金（The Global Fund）动员的艾滋病治疗资金那样——发展中国家的癌症致命率可以大幅下降——并且以很快的速度实现。


More than a decade ago, the international community decided that it would no longer accept certain death for HIV patients.	十多年前，国际社会决定不能在接受艾滋病患者的大量死亡。


We must make the same commitment today to bring life-saving cancer treatment to patients everywhere.	今天，我们也必须做出同样的承诺，把救命癌症治疗带给世界各地的患者。


Cancer World	癌症世界


PITTSBURGH – In 1971, President Richard M. Nixon launched a “war” against cancer.	匹兹堡—在1971年，尼克松总统发动了一场针对癌症的“战争”。


But, nearly four decades later, the battle remains focused on highly profitable efforts to develop drugs and technologies to treat the disease while virtually ignoring environmental factors that cause it.	但近四十年后，这场战役的焦点仍然是开发具有高赢利性的治疗癌症的药物和技术方面的努力，而引发癌症的环境因素却几乎被忽略了。


True, cancer deaths have dropped chiefly because of long-delayed – and still poorly supported – efforts to curb smoking.	诚然，死于癌症的人数量下降首先是因为控制吸烟—一项千呼万唤始出来，却仍然乏力的举措。


Successes with screening and treatment of breast, colo-rectal, and cervical cancer have also helped.	在乳腺、肛肠和子宫颈癌的诊断和治疗方面的成功也助了一臂之力。


But blacks and other minorities in the United States – and elsewhere in the world – do not share in these successes, and environmental factors appear to explain the disparity.	但美国和世界其他地方的黑人和少数族裔却没有分享到这些成功，环境因素似乎可以解释这种不平等。


For example, while one in eight Americans is black, one in three is employed in sanitation or other blue-collar jobs.	例如，尽管美国人口中有八分之一是黑人，但他们当中的三分之一从事着保洁或其他的蓝领工作。