Far from protecting us, they undermine law and order, just as Prohibition did more damage to America than drinking ever has.	这些管制不仅没有保护我们，反而破坏法律和秩序，正如美国的禁酒令对美国造成的损害要比饮酒要大一样。


Pragmatic governments surely ought to legalize and regulate migration instead.	务实的各国政府完全应当将移民合法化并加以管制才对。


Immigrants are not an invading army; they are mostly people seeking a better life who are drawn to Europe by the huge demand for workers to fill the low-end jobs that our aging and increasingly wealthy societies rely on, but which our increasingly well-educated and comfortable citizens are unwilling to take.	他们的大多数都是想要更好的生活而被欧洲对工人的大量需求吸引过来。 他们填充了我们老龄化和不断富有的社会所依赖的低端工作，我们受过良好教育而又生活安逸的公民们不愿意做这些工作。


Many services cannot readily be mechanized or imported – old people cannot be cared for by a robot or from abroad – while people increasingly pay others to perform tasks that they once did themselves, freeing up their own time for more productive work or leisure.	我们无法用机器人或者从外国照顾老年人。 人们越来越多地花钱让别人做以前他们自己做的工作，从而释放了他们自己的时间来从事更为创造性的工作或者休闲。


Thus, as advanced economies create high-skilled jobs, they inevitably create low-skilled ones, too.	这样，在先进的经济体创造高技能工作的时候，它们不可避免地也在创造低技能的工作机会。


In fact, low-skilled jobs still account for more than a quarter of Western Europe’s workforce.	实际上，低技能的工作依旧占西欧劳动力的四分之一。


But, whereas only half of Europeans now aged 55-64 finished secondary education, four in five 25-34-year-olds have done so, and they naturally aspire to better things.	但是，现在年龄在55至64岁的欧洲人只有一半的人完成高中学业。 25至34岁的人有五分之四完成高中教育，他们也就自然地向往更好的生活。


Even Europeans with few or no qualifications increasingly shun dirty, difficult, and dangerous jobs.	即使是没有技能或者技能很低的欧洲人也越发躲避肮脏、困难以及危险的工作。


The only way to reconcile our aspirations to opportunity for all with the reality of drudgery for some is through immigration.	调和我们给所有人以机遇以及某些人辛苦劳作的唯一现实途径就是通过移民。


Consider old-age care, the fastest-growing employment sector in Europe.	让我们看一看照看老年人，这是欧洲增长最快的就业部门。


Since young Europeans would rather work in a shop than a retirement home, persuading them otherwise would require a huge wage hike.	由于年轻的欧洲人宁可在商店工作也不愿在养老院工作，让他们做这种工作就需要大幅度增加工资。


Given fiscal constraints, that implies either less care for pensioners, budget cuts elsewhere, or tax hikes.	鉴于财政限制，这就意味着要末减少对靠养老金生活的人的照顾，要末在别的地方削减预算，或者增加税收。


Immigrants, however, face a different set of alternatives; with wages in Brussels far higher than in Manila, for example, Filipino immigrants are generally happy to do such work.	但是，移民却面临一种不同的选择。 例如，布鲁塞尔的工资要远远高于马尼拉，菲律宾移民通常很高兴做这种工作。


This is not exploitation; everyone – migrants, taxpayers, and Europeans young and old – is better off.	这并不是剥削； 每个人，包括移民、纳税人以及欧洲青年和老年人都会受益。


Nor does it undercut wages, since most Europeans do not want these jobs.	这也不会压低工资，因为大多数欧洲人不想要这些工作。


And it does not undermine social standards, because legal migrants have recourse to trade unions and the law.	而且这不会破坏社会标准，因为合法移民可以向工会和法律求助。


Indeed, just as it is often mutually beneficial to import computers from China, IT services from India, and investment-banking services from Americans, it can also make sense to import Filipino care workers, Congolese cleaners, and Brazilian bar staff.	的确，正如从中国进口计算机、从印度进口信息技术服务以及从美国进口投资银行服务对双方都有益一样，进口菲律宾佣人、刚果的清洁工以及巴西的酒馆服务生也是有道理的。


Policymakers who want products and providers of high-skilled services to move freely but people who provide less-skilled services to stay put are not just hypocrites; they are also economically illiterate.	那些想要让产品和高技能服务供应者自由流动，但是让低技能的服务供应者留在原地的决策者们不仅仅是伪善的； 他们也不懂经济学。


Nor do immigrants merely take jobs; they also create them.	移民不仅仅获得工作； 他们还创造工作。


As they spend their wages, they increase demand for people to produce the goods and services that they consume.	在他们花费工资的时候，他们增加了让��们生产他们所需要的产品和服务的需求。


Spain has admitted more immigrants in recent years than any other European country, yet its unemployment rate continues to fall; Britain, Ireland, and Sweden still have low unemployment after opening their labor markets to the Poles and other new EU members in 2004.	西班牙在最近几年中吸纳的移民数量超过其他所有欧洲国家，但是它的失业率继续下降； 英国、爱尔兰以及瑞典在2004年向波兰和其他欧盟新成员国开放劳动力市场以后失业率依旧很低。


This is also because immigrants often complement native workers’ efforts.	这也是因为移民经常补充本地工人的工作。


A foreign nanny may allow a British doctor to return to work, where hard-working foreign nurses and cleaners enhance her productivity.	一个外国奶妈也许可以让一名英国医生重返工作，而勤奋的外国护士和清洁工提高了她的效率。


While innovation sometimes comes from brilliant individuals – 21 of Britain’s Nobel prizewinners were refugees – it generally comes from the synergy of talented people in close proximity.	英国的诺贝尔奖得主中有21个人是难民。 尽管创新有时来自于优秀的人才，但是通常还是来自于聚集在一起的有才华的人的协同作用。


Likewise, consider Silicon Valley: Intel, Yahoo!, Google, and eBay were all co-founded by immigrants.	同样，看看硅谷的英特尔、雅虎、谷歌以及电子港湾等公司都是由移民共同创办的。


Millions of Europeans want EU governments to lower their barriers to developing countries’ exports, cancel Third World debt, and increase foreign aid.	数以百万计的欧洲人想要让欧盟各国政府降低对发展中国家出口的限制，免除第三世界的债务并且增加援助。


Yet increased migration would help the poor far more.	但是增加移民对穷人的帮助要远远更大。


Migrants from poor countries already send home $200 billion a year – perhaps another $400 billion informally – compared to the $80 billion in aid given by Western governments.	来自穷国的移民已经给家里每年寄了2000亿美元，可能还有非正规途径的4000亿美元。 与此相比，西方各国政府给的援助只有800亿美元。


These remittances are not wasted on weapons or siphoned off into Swiss bank accounts; they go straight into local people’s pockets.	这些汇款并没有被浪费在军火上或者转移到了瑞士银行帐户上； 它们直接进入了当地人的口袋里。


They pay for food, clean water, medicines, and to keep kids in school.	他们用这些钱来购买食品、清洁的水、药品并且让孩子继续上学。


And returning migrants bring back new skills, new ideas, and the money to start new businesses.	返国的移民带回了新的技能、新的观念以及金钱来开办新的企业。


Africa’s first Internet cafés were started by migrants returning from Europe.	非洲的第一批网吧就是由从欧洲返回的移民开办的。


Politicians should have the courage to stop fighting an unwinnable war.	政治人物们应当有勇气来停止打一场无法取胜的战争。


If open borders are not politically feasible for now, our leaders should at least create a legal route for people from developing countries to enter and work.	如果现在开放边界在政治上不可行的话，我们的领导人至少应该建立一种法律途径让来自发展中国家的人进入并且工作。


Of course, problems may arise; learning to live together can be tough.	当然，可能会出现问题； 学会共同生活在一起可能会是困难的。


But Europe would thrive on the cosmopolitan dynamism that results from treating immigration as an opportunity rather than as a threat.	但是，把移民当作机遇而不是威胁，欧洲就可以从由此产生的大都会蓬勃活力中获得发展。


The Case for Palestine	巴勒斯坦局势


RAMALLAH – Nowhere are the grievances that perpetuate violence and war more evident than they are in Palestine today.	拉马拉—要论仇恨如何引起旷日持久的暴力和战争，没有比眼下的巴勒斯坦更好的例子了。


But the world’s politicians continue to dance around the problem, rather than confront it.	但全球政客仍然对这个问题虚与委蛇，而不愿直面它。


The recent deadly violence in Gaza is only the latest proof that people living under occupation and siege need a political horizon, and not simply a cease-fire: the case for an independent state of Palestine has never been so compelling as it is today.	最近在加沙发生的致命暴力事件只是生活在占领和包围之中的人民需要的不仅仅是停火、而是政治解决之曙光的又一明证：巴勒斯坦的独立从未像今天一样如此紧迫。


Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s decision to proceed with plans to seek a vote this week on recognition of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly has come despite pressure, promises, and threats from Israel and some of its Western allies.	巴勒斯坦总统阿巴斯决定寻求在本周让联合国大会就承认巴勒斯坦举行投票，尽管以色列及其西方盟国对此极尽威逼利诱之能事。


Rather than pursuing the UN route, the Palestinians, according to these interlocutors, should continue to depend on asymmetrical negotiations that have served as little more than a photo opportunity.	以色列阵营认为，巴勒斯坦不应该走联合国的路子，而应该继续除了摆拍照片之外没有任何意义的不对称谈判。


The UN vote (which coincides with the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People) would not grant Palestine full membership. Rather, it would upgrade Palestine’s status to a level comparable to that of the Vatican, allowing its political leaders to bring war-crimes charges against Israelis to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.	联合国投票（投票日正好与国际声援巴勒斯坦人民日是同一天）并不会授予巴勒斯坦完全的成员地位，而是将巴勒斯坦的地位提升到与梵蒂冈相当的水平，允许其政治领袖向海牙国际刑事法庭提起以色列战争罪诉讼。


Zionists in Palestine rejoiced in 1947, following the UN General Assembly vote for partition into a Jewish and an Arab state.	巴勒斯坦的犹太复国主义者在1947年的联合国大会投票后拒绝分为一个犹太国家和一个阿拉伯国家。


It is ironic that, as rockets from Gaza reach the outskirts of Tel Aviv, those Israelis who celebrated the partition, and their descendants, do not see the importance of fulfilling the other half of the partition plan.	讽刺的是，随着加沙发射的火箭落在了特拉维夫郊区，那些支持分治的以色列人并不认为满足分治计划的另一半人有多重要。


It is true that Palestinians, who comprised the vast majority of the population and owned an overwhelming share of the land, were unhappy with the partition plan, which awarded them 46% of mandatory Palestine.	诚然，巴勒斯坦人对于分治计划划给他们46%的英属巴勒斯坦托管地感到十分不满，他们是巴勒斯坦人口的大头，也拥有绝大部分巴勒斯坦土地。


Today, Palestinians are seeking statehood on a mere 22% of the territory that had been part of mandatory Palestine until Israel was unilaterally established on areas much larger than those awarded by UN General Assembly Resolution 181 in 1947.	如今，巴勒斯坦所寻求的国土面积只有托管地的22%，1947年联合国大会181号决议后，以色列单方面将决议所授予的土地扩大了很大一部分。


Palestine’s quest for statehood within the borders of June 4, 1967, falls squarely within international law.	巴勒斯坦要求在1967年6月4日的边界内建国，这符合国际法。


The UN Security Council resolved in November of that year that “acquisition of territory by war” is unacceptable.	联合国安理会于当年11月作出决议，“通过战争获得领土”是不可接受的。


Subsequent Security Council resolutions and international treaties have upheld this principle.	后续安理会决议和国际条约都秉承这一原则。


In fact, a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders is exactly what US President Barack Obama has called for.	事实上，基于1967年边界的巴勒斯坦国正是美国总统奥巴马所呼吁的。


Similarly, the European Union has long advocated a two-state solution, with Palestine being established on areas occupied by Israel in 1967.	类似地，欧盟也长期支持两国解决方案，巴勒斯坦国将建立在1967年被以色列占领的区域内。


As Abbas has said, the upcoming General Assembly vote is not aimed at delegitimizing Israel.	阿巴斯指出，即将到来的联合国大会投票并不是旨在让以色列非法化。


It follows the Palestinian National Council’s declaration in 1988 of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel.	它所遵循的是1988年巴勒斯坦国民议会宣言——在以色列国边上建立巴勒斯坦国。


It also follows the Arab Peace Initiative, adopted by the Arab League at its Beirut Summit in 2002 (and to which Israel has yet to respond).	它也遵循2002年阿盟贝鲁特峰会通过的阿拉伯和平倡议（Arab Peace Initiative，但以色列至今尚未对此倡议表态）。


The Arab League initiative, which was also approved by the Organization of the Islamic Conference, embraces a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, but goes one step further, calling for a “just” and “agreed upon” solution to the thorny Palestinian refugee issue.	阿盟的倡议——并在伊斯兰会议组织（Organization of the Islamic Conference）批准——接受沿1967年边界建立两个国家的方案，但在此基础上更进一步，要求在棘手的巴勒斯坦难民问题上达成“公平”和“一致”的解决办法。


By accepting the words “agreed upon,” Palestinians, Arabs, and other Muslim-majority countries have conceded that Israel will not recognize Palestinian refugees’ inalienable right to return to their homes.	巴勒斯坦、阿拉伯国家和其他以穆斯林为主体人口的国家允许以色列不承认巴勒斯坦难民不可剥夺的返回故土的权利。


This should allay Israeli fears that the right of return would end Israel’s existence as a Jewish state.	这应该可以减轻以色列关于回家权利可能导致作为犹太国家的以色列的末日的担忧。


Abbas will go to New York holding an even more important card.	前往纽约的阿巴斯可能还手握一张更重要的王牌。


Israel’s recent brutal violence in Gaza has united Palestinians who were split along partisan lines.	以色列最近在加沙的野蛮暴力行径将分治线良策的巴勒斯坦人民凝聚在了一起。


Leaders of Abbas’s Fatah faction, which controls the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, and of Gaza-based Hamas have been meeting regularly to implement the Egyptian-Qatari reconciliation plan.	阿巴斯的法塔赫系的领导人控制着约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构，而哈马斯控制着加沙，这两派已开始定期会面，讨论实施埃及-卡塔尔和解计划。


Political prisoners from both sides have been released, and a senior Fatah delegation just visited Gaza.	双方均释放了政治犯，法塔赫还派出高级代表团访问了加沙。


Hamas officials, including Mahmoud Ramahi, the leader of a bloc in the Palestinian National Council, have publicly supported the UN recognition bid.	包括巴勒斯坦国民议会中一个联盟领袖拉马西（Mahmoud Ramahi）在内的哈马斯官员公开支持联合国承认投票议案。


According to Mousa Abu Marzook, Hamas’s deputy leader, his movement is not opposed to Abbas’s diplomatic initiative.	哈马斯副领导人马祖科（Mousa Abu Marzook）说，哈马斯不反对阿巴斯的外交努力。


An independent and free Palestine alongside a safe and secure Israel is a plan upon which the entire world agrees.	独立而自由的巴勒斯坦与安全无虑的以色列共存，这是全世界都同意的方案。


Palestinians have shown that they are willing to accept minor and agreed-upon land swaps, and will be open to creative ideas for solving the problem of Jerusalem, possibly following the parameters set out by US President Bill Clinton at the end of his second term.	巴勒斯坦已经显示出他们愿意接受基于一致的吃亏的土地交换，并对解决耶路撒冷问题的创造性方案持开放态度，比如按美国总统克林顿在其第二个任期末所提出的方案。


What is needed now more than ever is political will to give the peace process a serious boost.	如今最需要的是给予和平进程真正提振的政治意愿。


Obama, now free of electoral shackles, and the international community should give Palestinians’ peaceful effort a chance at life.	已无竞选压力的奥巴马应该和国际社会一起给予巴勒斯坦和平努力一线生机。


The case for Palestine has never been so clear.	巴勒斯坦局势从未像现在那样清晰。


A vote for recognition of Palestinian statehood is a vote for peace.	投票承认巴勒斯坦国地位就是投票支持和平。


The Case for Slowing Population Growth	降低人口增长


Global debates about population policy are confusing.	全球关于人口政策的争论是混淆不清的。


One side argues that rising human populations threaten our environment and prosperity.	一种意见认为，越来越多的人口数量威胁着我们的生存环境和经济繁荣。


Land, water, energy, and biodiversity all seem to be under greater stress than ever, and population growth appears to be a major source of that stress.	土地、水、能源、和生物多样性受到的压力都比以往来得更大，而人口增长似乎是造成这个压力的重要因素。


The other side of the debate, mainly in rich countries, argues that households are now having so few children that there won't be enough to care for aging parents.	但另一种意见--主要是来自富裕国家--认为，如今的家庭都只有很少的孩子，将来都不够照顾年老的父母。


Those who fret about population growth have the better argument.	那些焦急于人口增长速度的人们有着更好的理由。


Issues confronting Europe, Japan, and to a lesser extent the United States and some middle-income countries concerning aging populations are manageable.	因为欧洲、日本、美国一小部分地区、以及一些中等收入国家面临的老龄化问题是可以想办法解决的。


Moreover, the benefits of slower population growth outweigh the adjustment costs.	而且，放慢人口增长速度带来的好处要超过调整所需的成本。


By contrast, if global populations continue to rise rapidly, the stresses on the world's resources will worsen.	相反，如果全球人口继续迅速增长，世界资源短缺的问题将会更加严重。


Governments should therefore refrain from deliberate policies to raise birthrates, even in places where birth rates are low.	因此各国政府应该制止出台有关提高出生率的政策，即使是那些出生率已经很低的国家也不应该。


Part of the confusion of the public debate reflects different population trends in different parts of the world.	这场公共辩论的混乱，部分反映了世界不同地区的不同人口趋势。


The fastest population growth is taking place in the poorest regions.	最快的人口增长速度发生在最贫穷的地方。


Poor people, especially poor people living on farms, tend to have the most children (often six or more per woman), and therefore the highest rates of population growth.	穷人，尤其是务农的穷人，倾向于多生孩子（每个妇女生6个或者更多），因此造成了高人口增长率。


Poor farm families rely on their children for farm chores and for security when parents reach old age.	贫穷的农民家庭依赖于孩子来从事农场事务，将来老了还要靠孩子来养老。


Poor families lack access to contraception and family planning.	穷人家庭缺少避孕措施以及家庭计划。


Finally, poor families have many children as a kind of insurance policy against high child mortality rates.	最后，穷人家庭还把生育很多孩子看成是抵抗儿童高死亡率的一种保险措施。


As a result of high fertility rates in Africa, the UN Population Division predicts a doubling of Africa's population from around 900 million today to around 1.8 billion in 2050.	作为非洲高人口生产率的结果，联合国人口司预计2050年非洲的人口数量将在目前9亿的基础上翻一番，达到18亿。


Rapidly growing populations are also young populations, because of the high number of children per household.	快速增加的人口将都是年轻人，因为每个家庭都会有众多孩子。


In Africa, the median age is now a mere 19 years and is projected to rise to around 28 years in 2050.	在非洲，中位年龄（将全体人口按年龄大小排列，位于中间的那个人的年龄）只有19岁，预计到2050年将提高到28岁。


In Europe, the trends run in the other direction.	而在欧洲，人口增长趋势正好相反。


The UN projects a decline in population to around 630 million in 2050, from around 725 million people today.	联合国预测欧洲的人口数量到2050年将由现在的7. 25 亿下降至6.


With few children and longer life expectancy, the median age of the population rises sharply in this forecast, from 39 years in 2005 to around 48 years in 2050.	3亿。 由于出生率低以及人的寿命长，欧洲人口的中位年龄到2050年将由2005年的39岁快速老化到大约48岁。


For the world as a whole, population is expected to continue to grow by another 2.5 billion people from 2005 to 2050.	全世界总的来说，到2050年，人口数量将在2005年数量的基础上再增加25亿。


All of that growth will be in the developing world: 1.3 billion more people in Asia, 900 million more in Africa, the rest in Latin America and other regions.	所有增加的人口将都在发展中国家：亚洲将增加13多亿人口，非洲将增加9亿人口，剩下的在拉丁美洲以及其它地区。


Adding another 2.5 billion people to the planet will put enormous strains not only on societies with rising populations, but on the entire planet.	增加25亿人口，将不仅使社会承受巨大压力，而且整个地球都会过度疲劳。


Total energy use is soaring, reflecting the combined effect of rising per capita incomes - and thus rising per capita energy use - and population growth.	能源使用的高涨正反映了人均收入提高--引发人均能源使用的提高--以及人口增长的综合影响。


Higher energy use is already changing the world's climate in dangerous ways.	能源使用的增加已经危险地改变了世界气候。


Furthermore, the strains of increased global populations, combined with income growth, are leading to rapid deforestation, depletion of fisheries, land degradation, and the loss of habitat and extinction of a vast number of animal and plant species.	而且，全球人口的增加与收入的增加相结合，还导致森林砍伐、渔业损耗、土地退化现象严重。 另外，动植物的栖息地在减少，大量珍贵品种在消失。


Population growth in developing regions - especially Africa, India, and other parts of Asia - needs to slow.	人口增长速度在发展中国家--特别是在非洲、印度以及亚洲的其他地区--必须降低。


Public policies can play an important role by extending access to family planning services to the poor, expanding social security systems, reducing child mortality through public health investments, and improving education and job opportunities for women.	公共政策可以在向穷人提供家庭计划服务、发展社会安全体系、通过公共健康投资降低儿童死亡率、以及提高妇女教育和工作机会等方面起到重要作用。


A part of the European public, looking at Europe's looming population decline, wants to head in the other direction, promoting a return to larger families.	部分欧洲公众眼看着欧洲迫切的人口递减趋势，希望促进大家庭的回归。


That would be a big mistake.	这将是一个大错误。


Advocates of faster European population growth worry that there won't be enough young workers to pay for public pensions.	这些提倡加速欧洲人口增长速度的人们担心将来不会有足够的年轻人来支付公共养老金。


But this concern can be met through increased saving by today's young and middle-aged as they prepare for retirement, and by working past the age of 65.	但这种担心是可以通过让今天的中青年人增加储蓄，为退休提前做准备，或工作到65岁才退休这些方法来解决的。


These workers will reap large benefits from living in societies with stable or gradually declining populations.	这些生活在一个稳定的或人口持续下降的社会中的人将从中获得大量好处。


Most obviously, they will spend much less in direct household expenditures to raise children. They will also save on investments in new roads, power plants, schools, and other public services.	最明显的是，他们在抚养孩子方面的家庭开支将大大减少，他们还将减少在新的道路、发电站、学校以及其他公共设施上的开支。


They will enjoy less congested cities and fewer environmental pressures on the countryside.	城市将不再那么拥挤，乡村也没有那么多环境压力。


European economies will face lower costs in limiting emissions of greenhouse gases from energy use, leading to more effective control of climate change.	经济方面，欧洲将减少在限制由能源使用引发的温室气体散发上的花费，而开展更有效的控制气候变化的工作。


The quality of life, in short, will tend to improve as Europe's population declines in coming decades.	简单来说，在未来的几十年内，欧洲人的生活质量会因为人口的减少而提升。


There is nothing radical in calling for slower population growth.	这不是什么激进的对降低人口增长的呼吁。


For tens of thousands of years, the human population tended to rise and fall without a substantial long-term trend.	几万年来，人口一直都是有升有降，没有一个固定的长期的规律。


Only in the past two centuries, with the rise of modern economic life, did the world's population soar, from around one billion people in 1820 to 6.3 billion today and around 9 billion by 2050.	只是在过去两百年间，由于现代经济生活的出现，世界人口才不断高涨，从1820年的10亿人口增加到今天的63亿，并将继续增加，到2050年将达到90亿。


This explosive growth was made possible by huge advances in science and technology.	科学和技术的进步促成了这种爆炸性的增长。


But this unprecedented growth has also put tremendous pressures on the planet.	但这种没有先例的增长已经给我们这个星球带来了巨大压力。


We should intensify our efforts to slow population growth through voluntary means, and we should recognize that leveling off of the Earth's population now would add to human happiness and strengthen environmental sustainability later.	我们应该自发起来，努力降低人口增长速度。 我们应该认识到，地球人口数量的减少将会给人类带来幸福，并促进环境的可持续发展。


Fatal Thaws	致命的解冻


MOSCOW – During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and, in a milder way, the United States imposed external limits on the activities of states and societies, causing longstanding conflicts among smaller countries to be “frozen.”	莫斯科—冷战期间，苏联和美国（手段相对较温和）为国家和社会的活动设定了外部限制，这让小国之间的长期冲突都“冻结”起来了。


Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in the 1990’s, those conflicts began to “unfreeze.”	随着20世纪90年代苏联的解体，这些冲突开始“解冻”。


With interethnic tensions already on the rise, Yugoslavia was the first country to dissolve into conflict.	内部对峙不断升级的南斯拉夫成为第一个因冲突而消亡的国家。


Soon after, war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, followed by fighting in Transdniestria and Chechnya.	不久后，亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间爆发战争，随后，特涅斯特沿岸（Transdniestria）和车臣之间也燃起了战火。


While some conflicts were addressed – the West finally intervened militarily in the former Yugoslavia; and Russia fought in Chechnya for almost a decade, and imposed peace in Transdniestria – others, such as that between Armenia and Azerbaijan, were simply frozen again.	一些冲突得到了解决——最终，西方以武力干预前南斯拉夫； 而俄罗斯对车臣动武已逾十年，也给特涅斯特沿岸带来了和平——但其他冲突，如亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间的冲突，仅仅被再次冻结了。


Fortunately, not all potential conflicts erupted.	幸运的是，并非所有的潜在冲突都爆发了。


The Soviet Union did not dissolve into violence, as most other empires have – an outcome for which no explanation short of divine intervention or sheer luck seems to suffice.	苏联的解体并没有像大部分帝国那样带来乱战——对于这样的结果，似乎也只有命运之神眷顾可以解释。


Despite rising nationalist sentiments and mutual suspicions, Central and Eastern European countries also managed to avoid conflict, thanks to their rapid acceptance into NATO and the European Union.	尽管民族主义情绪渐浓、互相怀疑之风日盛，中东欧国家也设法避免了冲突，这主要是因为它们很快地被北约和欧盟接受了。


At that point, the world breathed a collective sigh of relief.	这让全世界都大舒一口气。


But, in the early 2000’s, globalization triggered the “second unfreezing” by facilitating rapid economic growth in Asian countries that, for two centuries, had been constrained by Western dominance, Cold War rules and institutions, and rampant poverty.	但是，在21世纪初，全球化通过刺激亚洲国家的快速增长触发了“第二次解冻”。 200年来，亚洲国家一直受着西方国家主导、冷战规则和制度以及肆虐的贫困的约束。


With thriving economies came increased strategic clout, leading to the rise of regional geopolitics shaped by national interests and fears, rather than by external forces.	和经济繁荣一起到来的是战略实力的增加，这使得地区地缘政治开始受国家利益和忧虑主导，而不再是外部势力。


The West’s failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, followed by the global economic crisis (which exposed severe structural weaknesses in the US and the EU that their democratic governments have been unable to resolve), accelerated this process.	西方在伊朗和阿富汗的失败，以及随后的全球经济危机（暴露了美国和欧盟的民主政府无法解决的严重的结构性弱点）加速了这一过程。


As a result, Europe has practically abandoned its global geopolitical role, with virtually no evidence of its presence, aside from trade, remaining in East Asia.	结果，欧洲事实上已经抛弃了其去阿牛地缘政治角色，在东亚也不再拥有除贸易以外的影响力。


Although the US has retained considerable influence, the combination of structural economic problems, a divided elite, and two de facto military defeats has impeded its ability to exercise that power.	尽管美国的影响力依然卓著，但结构性经济问题、精英的分裂以及两场事实军事失败已让其行使权威的能力大为削弱。


Old alliances – such as the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, the Central Eastern Treaty Organization, and the Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty – have died or are dying.	旧同盟——如东南亚条约组织、中欧条约组织以及澳大利亚、新西兰、美国安全条约——不是已经寿终正寝，就是行将就木。


And forming new alliances has proved difficult, with India rejecting what the US, with uncharacteristic humility, has proposed.	而寻找新同盟十分困难，印度以异乎寻常的谦卑态度拒绝了美国的提议。


Meanwhile, Asia is being roiled by intensifying territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas, as countries revive old claims against each other.	与此同时，亚洲正饱受东海和南海领土纠纷加剧的困扰，各国纷纷拿出昔日主张宣示主权。


East and South Asia are embroiled in an arms race, mainly at sea.	东亚和南亚卷入了军备竞赛，主要是海军竞赛。


Everyone is afraid of China, which remains relatively peaceable, but no longer bothers to conceal its growing military capacity.	所有人都忌惮中国。 中国仍保持着平和的姿态，但已不再隐瞒其日益增长的军事实力。


With no pan-Asian security architecture expected to emerge in the near future, the West’s departure from the region is generating a security vacuum.	短期内不会有泛亚洲安全安排出现，在这样的情况下，西方的离去会给该地区造成安全真空。


Furthermore, in the Greater Middle East, the fall of one secular dictatorship after another, coupled with the loosening of external control, has incited new – and rekindled old – suspicions, religious disagreements, and mistrust of outsiders in general and the West in particular.	此外，在大中东，世俗独裁政权接二连三倒台，这与外部控制的放松一起，带来了新的（也重燃了旧的）怀疑、宗教分歧和对外部人（尤其是西方人）的不信任。


As a result, the region has entered a period of conflict, social degradation, rising nationalism, and growing religious fanaticism.	结果，该地区进入了冲突、社会退化、民族主义崛��和宗教狂热日盛的时代。


Most threatening, however, is the possibility that the EU could collapse, triggering a third unfreezing.	但是，最大的威胁乃是欧盟解体并触发第三次解冻的可能性。


The EU, established to break the destructive cycle of European nationalism that had facilitated the rise of two totalitarian systems and caused two world wars, amounted to the creation of a prototype of a humane world order.	欧盟的建立本是为了打破欧洲民族主义的破坏性循环——导致两次世界大战的两大极权制度的崛起都是拜这一循环所赐——后来它也成为人类世界秩序的样板。


After being its own – and thus the world’s – worst enemy for centuries, Europe became a beacon of peace.	在充当了几百年自身——以及全世界——最险恶的敌人之后，欧洲变身为和平的明灯。


But, resting on the laurels of the EU’s founders, successive European leaders largely failed to perceive the competitive challenges posed by globalization.	但是，后辈欧洲领导人并没有延续欧盟创立者的荣光，他们没能意识到全球化带来的竞争挑战。


They seemed to forget that the European project’s underlying motivation was political, not economic, which led them to rush into enlargement and set unrealistic goals.	他们似乎忘记了欧洲工程的基本动机是政治，而不是经济，这让他们急于扩张，制定了不切实际的目标。


Now, they must pay for their mistakes by overhauling the entire institutional framework of the EU and the eurozone.	如今，他们必须为他们的错误买单——修正欧盟和欧元区的整套制度框架。


At the same time, Europeans must prepare for an even more profound transformation.	与此同时，欧洲必须为更深远的转型做好准备。


In order to regain economic competitiveness, European countries will have to abandon many of their social-welfare policies and reform their political institutions.	为了重新获得经济竞争力，欧洲国家将不得不抛弃许多社会福利政策并改革其政治制度。


Most Europeans prefer to ignore the looming challenge of radical policy reform, owing to the decline in living standards that it implies.	大部分欧洲人更愿意舒适彻底政策改革的迫切挑战，因为这意味着生活水平的下降。


Global leaders must encourage Europe to tackle its problems decisively by offering advice, financial support, and constructive criticism.	全球领导人必须为欧洲提供建议、金融支持和建设性批评，以此鼓励它果断解决自身问题。


Russia must continue to press for an Alliance of Europe – a new framework for economic and diplomatic relations among the EU, Russia, and the rest of Greater Europe – which could offer a way out of Europe’s systemic crisis.	俄罗斯必须继续施压要求建立欧洲同盟（Alliance of Europe，欧盟、俄罗斯和大欧洲其他部分组成的新的经济和外交关系框架），它能为欧洲的系统性危机提供解决之道。


The first unfreezing had serious consequences.	第一次解冻带来了十分严重的后果。


Now, global leaders must work to minimize the fallout of the second, and use all available means to prevent a third.	如今，全球领导人必须致力于将第二次解冻的不利后果最小化，并使用一切可能阻止第三次解冻。


The Challenges Of EU Enlargement	欧盟扩大的挑战


For more than 50 years, Europeans have shared aspirations for closer economic cooperation and political ties.	50多年以来，欧洲人一直渴望着建立更为紧密的经济合作与政治纽带。


The accession of ten new countries to the European Union earlier this year opened the latest and perhaps most dramatic chapter in this process.	今年早些时候10个新成员国加入欧盟开启了这一进程中最后的，且可能是最富戏剧性的一章。


Expansion of the world's second-largest market offers historic opportunities for economic renewal.	世界第二大市场的扩张为经济复苏提供了历史性的机遇。


But with enlargement come challenges.	挑战也随着欧盟的扩大而出现。


At a time of slow growth, lingering high unemployment, and difficult fiscal situations in some countries, it is understandable that longer-standing members of the EU sometimes focus more on the potentially disruptive difficulties than the opportunities.	在经济增长缓慢、失业率居高不下和一些国家陷入财政困难的情况下，欧盟的一些老成员国更关注于一些具有潜在破坏性的困难而不是机遇也也是情有可原。


Those problems are real, but their solutions lie in the new vistas of the enlarged EU: more trade in goods and services, integration of markets and better allocation of capital, and the potentially disciplining effect of economic unification on economic policies.	这些问题是实实在在的，但其解决之道还在于扩大后的欧盟的新局面之中：更多的商品和服务贸易，市场一体化和更好的资本配置，以及经济一体化对经济政策潜在的规范作用。


The advantages for trade and investment - more than 450 million people in 25 countries - are self-evident.	贸易和投资的优势—25个国家超过4. 5亿人口—是不言自明的。


The addition of the faster-growing, middle-income economies of Central and Eastern Europe offers a larger, more diverse internal market with rising purchasing power and a well-educated workforce.	来自中欧和东欧经济增长迅速的中等收入经济体的加入又带来了一个拥有不断提升的购买力和高素质劳动人口的，更为多元化的内部市场。


Adoption of the Euro should foster even greater trade integration by eliminating exchange-rate risk, lowering transaction costs, and promoting greater price transparency and competition.	欧元的采用会通过消除汇率风险，降低交易成本和倡导更高的价格透明度及竞争来进一步鼓励贸易一体化。


The experience of current euro-area members thus far suggests trade gains of roughly 10% just from the single currency.	欧元区现有成员国的经验表明，仅仅单一货币就使贸易营收增加了约10%。


Regrettably, one channel of greater integration has been muted: the free movement of labor.	遗憾的是，一个促进更进一步一体化的渠道却被阻塞了：劳力的自由流动。


Most established member states - fearing potential dislocations - have chosen to protect, albeit temporarily, their labor markets.	大多数老牌的成员国—由于担心可能出现的混乱—决定对其劳动力市场进行保护，虽然只是暂时的。


Several new members have adopted reciprocal restrictions.	几个新成员国也采取了相对应的限制政策。


It is essential that all members keep these artificial barriers to a minimum.	将这些人为的障碍降到最低限度对所有成员国来说都是非常重要的。


Europe also has much to gain from ongoing financial integration with the eventual goal of a truly pan-European financial market.	欧洲从方兴未艾的金融一体化的进程中也会获益匪浅。 这一进程的最终目标是建立一个真正的，泛欧洲的金融市场。


Greater market access, market reform, and efforts at regulatory harmonization - including those under the EU's Financial Services Action Plan - should help advance this trend.	更高的市场准入度，市场改革和协调监管的努力—包括那些在欧盟的《金融服务行动纲领》中的条款—都有助于推动这一潮流。


Foreign direct investment is the most direct channel for integration.	国外直接投资是实施一体化的最直接的渠道。


By some accounts, FDI between the old and new members might be as much as 70% lower than justified by economic fundamentals.	有关统计显示，欧盟新老成员国之间的国外直接投资可能要比按经济原理测算的数值低70%。


Similarly, with bank credit to the private sector in the new members well below averages in the West, the scope for increasing lending activity is also substantial.	同样，由于新成员国在给予私有产业的银行信贷方面也远低于西欧成员国的平均水平，贷款活动还有很大的发展空间。


Financial integration could catapult financial development for new member countries, including through the advent of new financial instruments and services.	通过包括引入新的金融工具和服务等方式，金融一体化可以极大促进新成员国金融业的发展。


Enlargement of the euro area promises to spur further financial integration.	欧元区的扩大必定会引发进一步的金融一体化。


Enhanced competition and economies of scale in larger, more closely integrated financial markets should narrow lending margins, lower intermediation costs, and allocate funds more efficiently.	在更大和更紧密统一的金融市场中营造更有效的竞争和规模经济能够降低贷款利率和中间媒介成本，并提高资金分配的效率。


Greater diversification of portfolios and deeper cross-border linkages should help risk sharing, making the region more resilient to shocks.	投资组合的更多元化和更深入的跨界联系能有助于风险共担，使该地区更能经得起金融震荡。


Ultimately, progress in both trade and financial integration rests on improved economic policies.	最终，贸易和金融一体化的进展都有赖于经济政策的改善。


New member states should continue pursuing macroeconomic stability and financial discipline, particularly with respect to public finances.	新晋成员国应该继续保持宏观经济的稳定性和金融规范，特别是在公共财政方面。


Along with strong prudential supervision, this should help manage the vulnerabilities of capital-account volatility and credit booms, and lay the groundwork for the eventual adoption of the euro.	和强大而谨慎的监管结合之后，这将会有利于管理资本账户和信贷繁荣的弱点，从而为最终采用欧元铺平道路。


Indeed, before joining the monetary union, the new member countries will need to make more progress toward the convergence criteria for interest rates, inflation, and public finances.	的确，在加入货币联盟以前，新成员国们必须在采用利率、通胀和公共财政的融合标准方面取得更多的进展。


Fiscal deficits in several new member countries will need to be reduced significantly.	几个新成员国还需要大幅削减其财政赤字。


Trimming excessive social transfers and entitlements, together with proper use of EU structural funds, would help achieve this objective while also satisfying the need for public investment and infrastructure upgrades.	修剪过度的社会变动和权利，再加上对欧盟结构性资金的合理使用会有助于达成这一目标，同时也能满足公共投资和基础设施改造的需求。


Strong financial-market supervision will also be needed to contain risks stemming from credit booms, asset bubbles, and financial-market volatility.	为了调控源于信贷繁荣、资产泡沫和金融市场易变性的风险，还需要强有力的金融市场监管。


On the structural front, measures to enhance wage and price flexibility would improve resiliency to asymmetric shocks and would help the new countries' cyclical fluctuations become more attuned to the rest of the EU.	在结构方面，增加薪酬和价格灵活性的举措可以改善应对非对称性震荡的弹性并有助于使新成员国金融市场的周期性波动与欧盟其他国家合拍。


For longstanding members, enlargement presents an opportunity to prepare public finances for coming demographic challenges.	对于老牌成员国而言，欧盟扩大使他们有机会在公共财政方面为即将到来的人口结构变化的挑战做好准备。


Restoring the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact should be a top priority, but the larger challenge requires greater stability for long-term public financing.	重塑《稳定与增长协定》的公信力是当务之急，但应对更大的挑战需要长期公共财政的更高稳定性。


A growth-friendly approach to the burdens of aging populations is required, including steps to raise the retirement age and encourage life-long training.	解决人口老龄化的负担需要一种“增长友好”的方式，包括在提高退休年龄和鼓励终身培训方面的措施。


Enlargement should also give fresh impetus to policies to tackle deep-seated structural impediments and reverse sagging income prospects.	（欧盟）的扩大应该为出台解决深层次的结构性障碍和扭转收入下降局面的政策提供新的动力。


The Lisbon Strategy adopted in March 2000 set an ambitious course for the EU, calling for greater focus on research and development, completion of the internal market, bold education and employment objectives, and promotion of active aging, all supported by appropriate macroeconomic policies.	2000年3月通过的《里斯本战略》为欧盟设定了一项雄心勃勃的事业。 它呼吁更多地关注研发，完善内部市场，实现更大胆的教育和就业目标，推行积极的老龄化观念，而所有的这一切都有适当的宏观经济政策为支持。


But as we approach the midpoint of this ten-year strategy, Europe stands well short of its many goals.	然而，当这一十年战略的实施已近中期时，欧洲的现实与其很多的目标仍有很大差距。


As the recent Kok report reviewing the Strategy makes clear, "The disappointing delivery is due to an overloaded agenda, poor coordination, and conflicting priorities."	正如最近评估《战略》的科克报告（Kok report）所清楚表明的那样，“令人失望的实施情况主要是由于过于繁重的议程，协调不力和主次冲突造成的。


I share this assessment.	”我同意这样的评价。


The Lisbon Strategy needs to be refocused.	《里斯本战略》需要重新确定重点。


The issue is not the productivity of European workers when they are on the job, but rather the need to increase labor-force participation through policies that raise employment rates and reverse the decline in weekly work hours.	现在的问题不是欧洲的劳动者在工作中的生产力，而是通过旨在提高就业率和扭转每周工作时间不断减少的情况的政策来提高劳动力参与度的必要性。


More flexible labor markets and reform of entitlement programs would further allow Europe to confront the demands of greater competition without recourse to insular protections, such as those placed on labor migration.	更为灵活的劳动力市场和社会权利体系的改革可以增强欧洲应对更激烈竞争需求的能力，而不至于采取诸如限制劳力流动等的孤立性保护措施。


Evolving market access, competition, and integration may present Europe with challenges and some costs.	演进中的市场准入，竞争和一体化可能会给欧洲带来挑战并增加一些成本。


But enlargement also creates new opportunities.	但欧盟的扩大也创造了新的机遇。


Improved policies will amplify these opportunities, ensuring that economic gains will benefit hundreds of millions of people throughout Europe.	完善后的政策能够放大这些机遇，从而确保经济增长能够造福于亿万欧洲人。


China’s Coming Growth Tests	中国的未来增长考验


BEIJING – The most recent official data show convincingly that the Chinese economy has bottomed out, and it is now widely expected that annual GDP growth should reach roughly 7.8% in 2012.	发自北京——最近的官方数据令人信服地表明中国经济已经触底了。 现在人们广泛预期其年度GDP增长在2012年将达到约7.


This result should come as no surprise.	8%。 这个结果也应该是意料之中了。


To rein in rising house prices and pre-empt the inflationary impact of the strongly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies implemented during the global financial crisis, China’s monetary authorities began to tighten financial conditions in January 2010.	为了在遏制房价的上升的同时预先控制全球金融危机时实施的大幅度扩张性财政和货币政策造成的通胀影响，中国的金融监管当局已经在2010年1月开始逐步对金融环境进行收紧。


Monetary tightening, administrative measures introduced by various municipal governments to stem the run-up in the housing market, and the waning effect of the government’s ¥4 trillion ($642.3 billion) stimulus package resulted in a gradual economic slowdown.	随着货币逐步紧缩，各地政府遏制房地产市场急剧增长的行政措施，以及4万亿人民币（约合6423亿美元）经济刺激计划影响的逐渐减弱，经济也因此开始逐渐减速。


While inflation should have eased in early 2011, rising food prices and commodity prices thwarted expectations.	通货膨胀本应在2011年初就缓和下来了，然而不断上升的食物价格和商品价格打破了人们的预期。


Annual growth in the consumer price index peaked at 6.5% in July 2011.	消费者物价指数的年增长率也在2011年7月达到了6. 5%的最高点。


Vigorous liquidity tightening eventually mitigated inflationary pressure, but it also impeded economic growth, which had slowed steadily after peaking at 12.8% in the first quarter of 2010.	有力的流动性紧缩措施最终减轻了通胀压力，但它也阻碍了经济增长——经济增长速度在2010年第一季度达到顶峰12. 8%后一直稳步下降。


By the last quarter of 2011, annual growth had slowed to 8.9%, triggering a surge of bearish sentiment about the Chinese economy among foreign pundits.	2011年的最后一个季度年增长率已经降到了8. 9%，导致外国评论家并不看好中国经济形势。


Most Chinese economists, by contrast, were less pessimistic, and expected that growth would stabilize at around 8% in 2012.	相反地，大部分中国经济学家并没有这么悲观，他们预期2012年中国经济增长会稳定在8%左右。


Yet, until recently, economic performance has been disappointing, owing to three factors.	然而直到最近，经济表现一直令人失望，这是受了三个因素的影响。


The impact of the slowdown in real-estate investment on the economy was stronger than expected, as was that of Europe’s debt crisis.	房地产投资放缓对经济的影响比预期的要严重，欧洲债务危机的影响也相当大。


And, though the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the reserve ratio in November 2011, and some fiscal stimulus was provided, the government largely refrained from more expansionary economic policies to boost growth.	而除了中国人民银行于2011年11月起下调了准备金比率，以及提供了一些财政刺激之外，政府基本上没有更多的扩张性经济政策来刺激经济增长。


In the last quarter of 2012, the long-expected rebound in growth finally materialized.	期盼已久的经济反弹终于在2012年最后一个季度出现了。


I, for one, never doubted that it would.	我个人就一直坚信经济反弹会出现。


After all, China’s potential growth rate remains about 8%.	毕竟，中国的潜在增长率还在8%左右。


Moreover, China’s fiscal position remains strong: even after accounting for all sorts of contingent liabilities – such as local-government loans, large project loans, and commercial banks’ non-performing loans in the event of a housing-market crash, China’s public debt/GDP ratio is still below 60%.	此外，中国的财政状况仍然强劲：即使是承担了各种各样的不确定债务——比如地方政府的贷款、大型工程贷款以及商业银行在房地产市场崩溃中的不良贷款，中国的公共债务对GDP比率仍然在60%以下。


Finally, the PBOC still has ample room to lower the reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate, which still stand at 20% and 6% (for one year loans), respectively, without much fear of stoking inflation.	最后，中国人民银行仍然有下调准备金比率和基准利率的充裕空间——这两个利率分别保持在20%和6%（针对一年期贷款），而不用担心引起通胀。


The true challenges facing China lie in the medium and long term.	中国真正面临的挑战在于中长期。


Indeed, the current economic rebound is not an achievement worthy of much celebration, especially if it comes at the expense of further reform and structural adjustment.	确实，目前的经济反弹并不是一项值得庆祝的成就，尤其如果它的实现是以牺牲进一步改革和结构调整为代价。


First, as China ages rapidly, the disappearance of its demographic dividend will lower potential growth significantly.	首先，随着中国人口的迅速老龄化，人口红利的消失将会显著降低其潜在增长。


Moreover, other things being equal, the extremely rapid rise in fixed-asset investment has eroded China’s investment efficiency and capital efficiency, reducing potential output growth further.	此外，其它条件不变的情况下，在固定资产上投资的极速增长已经侵蚀了中国的投资效率和资本效率，进一步降低了潜在产出增长。


And, as China’s economy approaches full technological modernization, its latecomer’s advantage will be exhausted, and its inability to innovate and create may become an important bottleneck to further growth.	而且，随着中国经济接近实现技术全面现代化，它将不再拥有后发优势，而其无力创新可能会成为进一步增长的重大瓶颈。


Although active participation in global production networks has brought significant benefits, it may have locked China into the lower end of the value chain, reducing its scope for future progress.	尽管积极参与全球生产网络给中国带来了巨大的好处，它也有可能使中国陷于价值链的最末端，减少其未来发展空间。


Other constraints loom as well.	其他的制约也隐约可见。


Rapid economic expansion implies that supplies of energy and raw materials will increasingly limit potential growth.	飞速的经济扩张意味着能源和原材料的供给将会日益限制其潜在增长。


At the same time, the public’s demand for environmental protection and other basic rights will inevitably increase production costs.	同时，公众对环境保护���其他基本权利的要求将必然导致生产成本的上升。


Similarly, the external environment may become less favorable, as the long process of global deleveraging impedes economic recovery in China’s key foreign markets.	同样地，由于全球去杠杆化的漫长过程阻碍了中国主要国外市场的经济复苏，外部环境可能会变得不那么有利。


Finally, despite China’s status as one of the world’s largest net creditors, it has been running a deficit on its investment balance for years.	最后，尽管作为世界上最大的净债权国之一，中国已经有多年在投资负债表上出现亏损。


If this pattern persists, China may well face a balance-of-payments constraint on growth in the future.	如果这种亏损模式持续下去，中国可能要未来增长上面对国际收支差额的限制。


Compared to these economic vulnerabilities, however, the fate of political reform in China will be much more important to the country’s long-term prosperity.	然而与这些经济弱点相比，中国政治改革的命运将会比该国长期的繁荣更加重要。


Everything, it is hoped, will go well.	这个国家希望一切都进展顺利。


But there is no harm in envisaging a crisis scenario, so that China can prevent it from materializing.	然而设想一个危机场景是没有什么害处的，如此中国才能防止危机的出现。


Such a scenario can be summarized as follows.	这样的一种情况可以概括如下。


Thanks to more than 30 years of breakneck economic growth with little regard for social justice and equality, China has become a stratified society.	由于30多年来几乎不考虑社会正义与公平的高速经济发展，中国已经变成一个阶级分化的社会。


It is easy to imagine each social group demanding a larger share of national income, which by definition is inflationary.	不难想象如果每个社会群体都要求获得国民收入的更大份额，这就是通胀。


Indeed, with an increasingly lenient political regime, populism may become irresistible, while the size of the government bureaucracy may continue to bloat.	确实，对于一个日益宽松的政治体制，民粹主义也许会变得不可抗拒，然而政府机构的规模可能还会继续膨胀。


Given a lower growth rate, China’s fiscal position will deteriorate – gradually at first, and then rapidly – with the public debt/GDP ratio eventually rising to an unsustainable level.	如果增长率再低一些，中国的财政状况将会恶化——最初比较缓慢，然后急速恶化——最终公共债务对GDP比率将上升到一个无法维持的水平。


Making matters worse, when China needs to use its savings – accumulated over two generations and packed into US Treasury bills – to alleviate fiscal constraints, it will find that the value of its foreign-exchange reserves has already evaporated.	让形势更加糟糕的是，当中国需要将其储蓄——两代人的积累投到了美国国债之中——来缓解财政限制时，它会发现其外汇储备的价值已经蒸发了。


To judge China’s economic dynamism, the key indicator is its fiscal position.	判断中国的经济活力，关键指标是其财政状况。


When, and only when, China’s fiscal position is worsening rapidly will its economy suffer a hard landing.	当且仅当中国的财政状况在快速恶化时，其经济才会突然衰退。


The next five years hold the key for China’s future; its window of opportunity to complete a difficult process of reform and adjustment may not be longer than that.	接下来的五年是中国未来的关键，其改革及调整过程的机会之窗可能也不会比这个时期更长。


The Chancellor Who Played with Fire	玩火的总理


BERLIN – German Chancellor Angela Merkel should be happy nowadays: her party’s approval ratings aren’t bad, and her own are very good.	柏林——近来德国总理默克尔应该很高兴； 因为她所在的党派以及她个人的支持率都不低。


She no longer has serious rivals within the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), while the left opposition is fragmented into four parties.	在中右派基督民主联盟内，已经不再有和她为敌的对手，而且左派反对势力也分裂成了四个党派。


Her response to the European crisis has prevailed – or at least that is the impression that she conveys, and that most Germans believe.	至少以她的话来讲，她应对欧洲危机的方式广为流行为人们所接受，同样这一方式也是大多数德国人所信任的。


So everything is fine and dandy, right?	因此，一切事务都进展地十分顺利，运行良好，不是吗？


Not so fast.	但事情并未进展地如此之快。


Two issues could complicate Merkel’s re-election bid in the autumn of 2013.	有两个事情可能会使默克尔2013年秋天连任竞选的局势变得复杂。


Domestically, her coalition partner, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), is disintegrating.	从国内的角度而言，她的联合党---自由民主党正在面临着分裂。


Even if the FDP survives the next election (which is by no means certain), the current coalition is unlikely to retain its parliamentary majority, leaving Merkel increasingly dependent on the Social Democrats (SPD).	即使自由民族党能够维持统一到下一次大选（这种情况绝不可能出现），现在的联合党也不太可能保住议会的绝大多数席位。 这使得默克尔越来越依赖社会民主党。


While this need not matter to her too much as long as she retains the chancellorship, in Sigmar Gabriel, the SPD’s leader, she faces – for the first time – an opponent whom she would underestimate at her peril.	然而，只要她能够连任总理，这对她来说就算不了什么大事。 在这次总理竞选中，她面对的是社会民主党的领导，而这一次这个对手即使是她自担风险也不可轻视。


But the real danger to Merkel is external: the European crisis.	但是对默克尔来说真正的危险来自于外部---欧洲债务危机。


If she is unlucky, the crisis will come to a head at the start of the German election year, and all previous calculations could be moot, because, despite Germans’ frustration with Europe, the electorate would punish severely those who allowed Europe to fail.	如果她并不那么走运，这场危机在德国大选年的伊始就发展到了危机关头，那之前所精心制定的所有计划都可能会毫无实际意义。 这是因为尽管德国人民对欧洲感到很失望，全体选民都会严厉地去惩罚使欧洲垮台的那些人。


The European Union’s economy is sliding into a severe and, in all likelihood, long-lasting recession, largely self-inflicted.	欧盟的经济正在下滑。 已经到达了非常不景气的萧条时期，这种大萧条极有可能长久地持续下去，而经济滑坡的主要原因是欧洲内部问题。


While Germany is still trying to banish the specter of hyperinflation with strict eurozone austerity measures, the EU crisis countries are facing a real threat of deflation, with potentially disastrous consequences.	尽管德国仍在试图用高强度的欧元区货币紧缩政策来抑制极度通货膨胀这一祸根，但欧盟债务危机国家正在面临通货紧缩这一威胁，而通货紧缩可能会带来灾难性后果。


It is only a question of time – no longer very much time – before economic destabilization gives rise to political instability.	经济不稳定迟早会导致政局不稳定，这仅仅是一个时间问题，并不需要太多的时间。


Hungary, where democratic backsliding appears to be taking hold, provides a foretaste of a Europe in which the eurozone crisis and deflation persist.	匈牙利的民主退步似乎开始逐渐产生影响。 目前欧元区经济危机和通货紧缩在欧洲持续发展，匈牙利的情形成了整个欧洲的预兆。


The mood in the Mediterranean EU members, as well as in Ireland, is heating up, owing not only to the tightening squeeze of austerity, but also – and perhaps more importantly – to the absence of policies that offer people hope for a better future.	包括爱尔兰在内的一些地中海地区欧盟成员国的情绪变得越发激烈。 导致这一情绪的原因不仅仅是紧缩的政策所带来的高压，而且更为重要的原因是缺乏能够给人们带来希望去憧憬更好的将来的政策。


The explosive nature of current trends, which point to eventual re-nationalization of sovereignty from the bottom up, is greatly underestimated in Berlin.	当今趋势本质具有爆炸性，而德国人却大大地低估了这一本质，这种趋势会最终导致从根本上合理改革国家主权。


The crisis has now reached Italy and is threatening to spread to France.	这场危机目前已经蔓延到了意大利而且正在威胁着法国。


With Mario Monti’s premiership, Italy has mobilized its best people, and neither Italy nor Europe will get a better government for the foreseeable future.	在意大利总理马里奥-蒙蒂的领导下，意大利已经动员了本国最优秀的一批人才。 意大利和欧洲在可预测的未来内都不会有更为出色的政府产生。


If Monti’s administration is toppled – either in parliament or in the streets – the EU’s fourth-largest economy could come crashing down.	如果蒙蒂的政权被推翻，无论是通过议会还是通过示威游行，欧盟的第四大经济体都可能会面临崩溃。


Monti is urgently calling for help.	蒙蒂正在极力地四处寻求帮助。


Where is it?	帮助从何而来？


Developments in France (the second-largest eurozone economy) should also not be underestimated in this presidential election year.	法国（欧元区第二大经济体）的发展同样也不应在这一总统大选年被低估。


If a majority of the French come to believe that a course of action is being imposed on them from outside – and by Germany, no less! – they will respond with traditional Gallic stubbornness.	如果绝大多数的法国人相信这一连串的行动都是由德国出台从外部强加于他们，法国人一定会用高卢人固有的倔强来予以还击。


What is at stake is less the election’s outcome than the margin between President Nicolas Sarkozy and the far-right National Front leader, Marine Le Pen – and whether she overtakes him to qualify for the second-round run-off against the Socialist candidate.	真正使法国总统萨科奇处于危险的并不是总统选举的结果，而是他和极右派民族阵线领导人勒庞之间的隔阂，以及是否她会代替萨科奇参加第二轮对抗社会主义代表的决定性竞选。


While she would be unlikely to win the presidency, she could reshape and realign the French right.	尽管她可能赢得不了总统大选，但她可以重组、重新联盟法国右派势力。


For that reason, a Sarkozy debacle would drastically reduce his Socialist successor’s room for maneuver on European policy, fundamentally altering France’s position in Europe.	由于这个原因，如果萨科奇的惨败，会大幅削减其社会主义党派继任者在欧洲政策制定上的发言权，从而在根本上得改变了法国在欧洲的地位。


But, while the French election’s outcome will hinge to a crucial extent on European crisis politics, Germany’s government acts as if this were none of its concern.	但是，尽管法国的大选结果很大程度地取决于欧洲债务危机的策略，德国政府的行为似乎表明这一结果与其毫无关系。


Instead, the main – almost exclusive – topic in Berlin is the upcoming election.	但相反，柏林的中心话题，甚至可以说是几乎独家话题却是将要到来的大选。


And the central question is not, “What needs to be done now in the interest of Europe?” Rather, it is, “How much can people in Germany be expected to accept – in particular, how much honesty?”	目前的中心问题不是“需要采取什么样的措施来为欧洲谋利”，而是“德国人能够接受多少，具体来说，接受多少诚信。


No one will act in a way that jeopardizes their electoral prospects, at least while there are still alternatives.	没有人愿意做出危及其��选前景的行动，更何况他们至少还有其他方案可供选择。


So it is conceivable that Germany is not at all interested in a serious effort to resolve Europe’s crisis, because that would mean taking big risks and investing a lot of money.	因此，人们可以想到德国人一点也没有兴趣为解决欧洲债务危机而做出认真的努力，因为解决债务危机意味着承担大的风险和投资大笔的钱。


The CDU-FDP coalition prefers to sugarcoat the situation by convincing themselves of an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy, abetted by those in the European crisis countries unwilling to perform and reform and whose only purpose is to make the Germans pay.	基督民主联盟和自由民主党的联合政党喜欢粉饰目前的局面。 他们十分清楚这是一个安格鲁萨克逊阴谋。


So far, Merkel’s coalition is like someone driving against traffic, dead certain that everyone else is going the wrong way.	这一阴谋是那些欧债危机国中不愿实施行动、不愿改革的人们所怂恿出的概念，他们的目的就是想要德国人买账。 目前为止，默克尔的联盟就像是违反交通规则开车的人一样，非常肯定地认为其他所有人的行动都错了。


Europe’s disintegration has already advanced much further than it might appear.	欧洲的分裂已经比其可能表现出来的情况发展地更为严重。


Distrust and national egoism are spreading rapidly, devouring European solidarity and common purpose.	不信任和国家利己主义迅速地传播开来，将欧洲的团结和共同目标吞噬，使之丧失殆尽


Institutionally, Europe has been on the right track since the last summit, but it threatens to disintegrate from the bottom up.	从制度上来讲，自从上一次峰会以来欧洲已经走到了正确的路线上，但是仍旧存在彻底瓦解的危险。 想要拯救欧元，欧洲需要立即采取行动。


To save the euro – which is essential, because the European project’s fate depends on the success of monetary union – Europe needs action now: in addition to indispensable austerity measures and structural reforms, there is no way to succeed without a viable economic program that will assure growth.	拯救欧元十分重要，因为欧洲计划的命运取决于货币联盟的成功与否。 除了必不可少的紧缩政策和结构改革，没有任何方式可以不采取既切实可行又保证增长的经济项目而取得成功。


That won’t come cheap.	这种方式花费会很巨大。


If Merkel’s government believes that paying lip service to growth is enough, it is playing with fire: a euro collapse in which not only Germans would be badly burned.	如果默克尔认为仅仅说说好听的话去刺激增长就足够了的话，这就相当于是在玩火，一旦这场大火烧垮整个欧洲，不仅仅是身在其中的德国人会被烧得遍体鳞伤。


The Changing Climate On Climate Change	人类对气候变化的认识改变


The message, it seems, has finally gotten through: global warming represents a serious threat to our planet.	看起来，人们终于接受了这样一个事实：那就是全球变暖已经是我们这个星球所面临的严重威胁。


At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, world leaders saw climate change, for the first time, topping the list of global concerns.	不久前在达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上，各国领导人第一次将气候变化列在了全球问题的首位。


Europe and Japan have shown their commitment to reduce global warming by imposing costs on themselves and their producers, even if it places them at a competitive disadvantage.	欧洲和日本明确表示了宁愿给本国政府和制造企业增加成本，也要缓解全球变暖的燃眉之急，即使这样做会损失自己在竞争中的优势地位也在所不惜。


The biggest obstacle until now has been the United States.	美国是迄今为止最大的障碍。


The Clinton administration had called for bold action as far back as 1993, proposing what was in effect a tax on carbon emissions; but an alliance of polluters, led by the coal, oil, and auto industries beat back this initiative.	克林顿政府早在1993年就呼吁采取有效措施，并实际提出对碳排放征税，但以煤炭、石油和汽车行业为首的污染企业联盟击败了这项提案。


To the scientific community, the evidence on climate change has, of course, been overwhelming for more than a decade and a half.	在科学家们看来，气候变化当然从15年前开始就已经再明显不过。


I participated in the second assessment of the scientific evidence conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which perhaps made one critical mistake: it underestimated the pace at which global warming was occurring.	我参与了由政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）进行的第二次科学实证评估，这次评估现在看来也许犯了一个重大的错误：那就是低估了全球变暖的发展速度。


The Fourth Assessment, which was just issued, confirms the mounting evidence and the increasing conviction that global warming is the result of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.	不久前发布的第四次评估报告只是确认了一个支持数据越来越多、也越来越为人们所深信不疑的事实，那就是全球变暖是大气中温室气体增加所导致的结果。


The increased pace of warming reflects the impact of complex non-linear factors and a variety of “tipping points” that can result in acceleration of the process.	变暖速度加快是导致整个进程恶化的复杂的非线性因素和若干“拐点”综合作用的结果。


For instance, as the Arctic ice cap melts, less sunlight is reflected.	举例来讲，随着极地冰盖的融化，被反射的太阳光也越来越少。


Seemingly dramatic changes in weather patterns – including the melting of glaciers in Greenland and the thawing of the Siberian permafrost – have at last convinced most business leaders that the time for action is now.	从表面看来气候模式的急剧变化¾包括格陵兰冰川融化和西伯利亚永久冻土融解¾至少说服了绝大多数企业领导现在应该采取行动。


Recently, even President Bush seems to have woken up.	最近，就连布什总统好像也意识到了问题的严重性。


But a closer look at what he is doing, and not doing, shows clearly that he has mostly heard the call of his campaign contributors from the oil and coal industries, and that he has once again put their interests over the global interest in reducing emissions.	但仔细分析一下他的所作所为和不作不为，就能明显感觉到他在多数情况下还是听从石油和煤炭行业竞选出资人的意见，并且再次将这些人的利益凌驾于减少排放的全球利益之上。


If he were truly concerned about global warming, how could he have endorsed the construction of coal-fired electricity plants, even if those plants use more efficient technologies than have been employed in the past?	如果他确实对全球变暖深感忧虑，那么即便燃煤电厂使用的技术比过去更为有效，他又怎么能够继续批准建设这种类型的发电设施？


What is required, first and foremost, are market-based incentives to induce Americans to use less energy and to produce more energy in ways that emit less carbon.	建立以市场为基础的激励机制，推动美国企业减少能源消耗、并以降低碳排放的方式生产更多能源，这个课题急待解决。


But Bush has neither eliminated massive subsidies to the oil industry (though, fortunately, the Democratic Congress may take action) nor provided adequate incentives for conservation.	但布什既没有取消对石油产业的巨额补助（幸运的是民主党国会也许会采取行动）、也没有出台足够的措施来鼓励节能。


Even his call for energy independence should be seen for what it is – a new rationale for old corporate subsidies.	即使对他所提出的能源独立的倡议我们也要正确看待¾那不过是从前企业补助的翻新版本。


A policy that entails draining America’s limited oil supplies – I call it “drain America first” – will leave the US even more dependent on foreign oil.	导致美国有限石油资源枯竭的政策¾我把它称为“先耗光美国”的政策¾会导致美国更加依赖国外石油进口。


The US imposes a tariff of more than 50 cents per gallon on sugar-based ethanol from Brazil, but subsidizes inefficient corn-based American ethanol heavily – indeed , it requires more than a gallon of gasoline to fertilize, harvest, transport, process, and distill corn to yield one gallon of ethanol.	美国对从巴西进口的蔗糖乙醇每加仑征收50美分的关税，却为国内出产的相对低效的玉米乙醇提供补贴。 事实上，每生产一加仑玉米乙醇都将需要超过一加仑的汽油用于玉米的施肥、收获、运输、加工和提纯过程。


As the world’s largest polluter, accounting for roughly a quarter of global carbon emissions, America’s reluctance to do more is perhaps understandable, if not forgivable.	作为占全球碳排放量约四分之一的世界第一大污染国，美国不愿采取进一步措施的态度虽然不可原谅，但却可以理解。


But claims by Bush that America cannot afford to do anything about global warming ring hollow: other advanced industrial countries with comparable standards of living emit only a fraction of what the US emits per dollar of GDP.	但布什有关美国无法对全球变暖采取任何措施的说法根本站不住脚：其他生活水平与美国近似的发达国家，其单位美元国内生产总值所导致的排放却只占美国的一小部分。


As a result, American firms with access to cheap energy are given a big competitive advantage over firms in Europe and elsewhere.	结果是利用廉价能源的美国企业在竞争中���欧洲和其他国家企业更有优势。


Some in Europe worry that stringent action on global warming may be counterproductive: energy-intensive industries may simply move to the US or other countries that pay little attention to emissions.	欧洲有人担心采取限制全球变暖的严厉措施也许会对生产造成不利的影响：能源消耗量大的企业可能会干脆转移到美国或其他不太关注排放的国家。


And there is more than a grain of truth to these concerns.	而这样的担忧是很有道理的。


A striking fact about climate change is that there is little overlap between the countries that are most vulnerable to its effects – mainly poor countries in the South that can ill afford to deal with the consequences – and the countries, like the US, that are the largest polluters.	有关气候变化的一个惊人事实是：在气候变化中受害最深的国家¾主要是那些承担不起气候变化后果的南部贫困国家¾与以美国为首的头号污染国几乎是完全不同的两大阵营。


What is at stake is in part a moral issue, a matter of global social justice.	部分问题牵扯到道德层面，涉及到全球社会是否公平。


The Kyoto Protocol represented the international community’s attempt to begin to deal with global warming in a fair and efficient way.	《京都议定书》代表了国际社会开始以公平有效的方法处理全球变暖问题的一种尝试。


But it left out a majority of the sources of emissions, and unless something is done to include the US and the developing countries in a meaningful way, it will be little more than a symbolic gesture.	但绝大多数排放来源都没有被纳入其中，因此除非采取措施将美国和发展中国家实际纳入进来，否则这份议定书很难具有任何实际意义。


There needs to be a new “coalition of the willing,” this time perhaps led by Europe – and this time directed at a real danger.	此时需要建立新的“自愿联盟”，也许这次由欧洲来领导¾而且应对的是真正的危机。


This “coalition of the willing” could agree to certain basic standards: to forego building coal-fired plants, increase automobiles’ fuel efficiency, and provide targeted assistance to developing countries to enhance their energy efficiency and reduce emissions.	这样的“自愿联盟”遵循特定的基本准则：放弃建设燃煤电厂、提高汽油的利用效率并向发展中国家提供定向援助，用以提高它们的能源效率、降低排放。


Coalition members could also agree to provide stronger incentives to their own producers, through either more stringent caps on emissions or higher taxes on pollution.	联盟成员国还要进一步刺激国内的生产企业，更加严格地限制排放，或者对污染的始作俑者课以重税。


They could then agree to impose taxes on products from other countries – including the US – that are produced in ways that unnecessarily add substantially to global warming.	接着它们还要对来自其他国家，包括美国的产品征收关税¾理由是这些产品造成了全球变暖趋势不必要地恶化。


What is at stake is not protecting domestic producers, but protecting our planet.	这里所牵扯的问题不是保护国内企业，而是保护我们的地球。


The changing climate on climate change provides political leaders in Europe and other potential members of this “coalition of the willing” an unprecedented opportunity to move beyond mere rhetoric.	人类对气候变化问题的认识改变为欧洲和其他“自愿联盟”潜在成员国的执政者提供了摒弃夸夸其谈的最佳时机。


The time to act is now.	现在是时候采取行动了。


The Changing Face of Energy Security	能源安全变化中的表象


For three decades, the rich world has talked about curbing its addiction to imported oil.	三十年来，富有国家一直在谈论限制其对进口石油的依赖。


But, despite the anxious rhetoric, the oil-supply problem has become worse and energy security more complex.	但是，尽管人们焦急地发表长篇大论，石油供应问题变得愈加严重，而能源安全则更为复杂。


Notwithstanding politicians’ repeated calls for energy independence, over the past 30 years the United States, for example, has doubled its dependence on imported oil, which now accounts for nearly two-thirds of its oil needs.	尽管政坛人物们不断呼吁能源自给自足，但是，以美国为例，在过去30年中其对进口石油的依赖增加了一倍。 进口石油已经占到其石油需求的将近三分之二。


Threats to cut oil supplies in order to change a country’s foreign policy have a long history, particularly where the Middle East is concerned.	威胁切断石油供应来改变某国的外交政策由来已久，特别是涉及中东问题之时。


Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries called for an embargo at the time of the 1967 war, but it had little effect because the US was then largely self sufficient.	石油输出国组织中的阿拉伯成员国在1967年战争的时候呼吁实行禁运，但是由于美国当时在很大程度上是自给自足，因此效果不大。


But by the 1973 Yom Kippur war, the Arab oil embargo had a greater effect, owing to America’s growing demand for imported oil.	但是到了1973年的赎罪日战争的时候，由于美国对进口石油不断增加的需求，阿拉伯的石油禁运产生了更大的效果。


The embargo drove up prices and unleashed a period of inflation and stagnation worldwide.	这一禁运提高了物价，引发了世界范围的通货膨胀和经济停滞。


It also demonstrated that oil is a fungible commodity.	它还表明，石油是一种可替代商品。


Even though the embargo was aimed at the US and the Netherlands, market forces shifted oil among consumers, and in the long term all consuming countries suffered shortages of supply and the same price shock.	尽管禁运针对的是美国和荷兰，但是市场的力量在消费者之中调配着石油。 从长期而言，所有的消费国家都遭受供应短缺和相同的价格冲击。


Oil embargos turned out to be a blunt instrument that hurt many besides the targeted countries.	石油禁运到头来是一把钝刀，既打击了目标国家，也伤害了其他许多人。


In the aftermath of the oil price shocks, energy security policy has had four components.	石油价格冲击之后，能源安全政策包含了四个主要部分。


By liberalizing energy prices, governments allowed markets to encourage conservation and new supply.	政府通过解除能源价格管制允许市场来鼓励节能和寻找新的供应源。


In addition, governments introduced modest subsidies and regulations to encourage conservation and renewable energy sources.	此外，各国政府采取了补贴和法规来鼓励节能和可再生能源。


Some governments began to store oil in strategic petroleum reserves that could be used to for short periods in a crisis.	某些国家政府开始在战略石油储备地储存石油，这些储备可以在危机的时候被利用一小段时间。


Rich countries also helped to create the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which coordinates policies (including strategic reserves) among consumer countries.	富有国家还帮助建立了总部设在巴黎的国际能源机构，这一机构协调消费国家的政策(包括战略储备)。


Such policies still make sense.	这样的政策不无道理。


They would probably not be adequate, however, to deal with a prolonged disruption of supplies.	但是，在应付旷日持久的供应中断方面，这些政策可能还是不够。


The world is not running out of oil, but two-thirds of oil reserves are located in the politically unstable Persian Gulf region.	世界并非会没油了，而是三分之二的石油储备是在政治上动荡不安的波斯湾地区。


The US imports only a small portion of its oil from the Persian Gulf.	美国只从波斯湾进口其一小部分石油。


Its largest supplier is its stable neighbor, Canada.	其最大的供应方是政局稳定的邻国加拿大。


But the lesson of 1973 is that a disruption of Gulf oil supplies would raise prices and damage both rich and poor economies, regardless of how secure their own sources of supply might be.	但是1973年的教训就是，波斯湾石油供应中断将会太高价格，破坏富国和穷国的经济，而无论其自身的供应有多么的可靠。


Moreover, new dimensions of the problem of energy security have emerged in the last few years.	但是，在过去几年中，能源安全问题上出现了新的局面。


One is the great increase in energy demand from the rapidly growing economies of Asia, particularly China.	其中一个就是亚洲快速增长经济体，特别是中国的能源需求大幅增加。


China appears to believe that it can secure its energy imports by locking up oil contracts with pariah states like Sudan.	中国好像相信它可以通过与类似苏丹那样糟糕的国家锁定石油合同来确保其石油进口。


However, while this short-sighted mercantilist approach creates foreign policy problems over issues like Darfur, it will not really protect China in a time of supply disruption.	但是，这一短视的重商主义手段在像达尔富尔那样的问题上造成外交问题，而且，这也并不在供应中断的时候可以切实确保提供给中国的供应。


It would be far better to bring China (and India) into the IEA, and encourage normal Chinese participation in world markets.	更好的办法是把中国(以及印度) 带入国际能源机构之中，并且鼓励中国正常地参与世界市场。


Another new dimension of the energy security problem is the manner in which high prices and increased reserves have transferred power to energy producing countries.	能源安全问题的另一个新形势是高油价和储备增加使得实力向能源生产国转移的方式。


State-owned companies now control far more oil and gas reserves than do the traditional private energy companies once known as the seven sisters.	国营公司现在所控制的石油和天然气储备远远超过传统的私营能源公司。 这些公司过去被称作七姐妹。


Many of these state-owned companies in countries like Russia and Venezuela are not responding merely to market forces, but are using their newfound pricing power for political purposes.	像俄国和委内瑞拉这样的国家中德许多国营公司并不仅仅对市场力量做出反应，而且还在利用它们新近发现的定价力量来用于政治目的。


Finally, the energy security problem has been complicated by the problem of global climate change.	最后，全球气候变化问题也让能源安全问题复杂化了。


As the science has become increasingly clear, climate change is now a major political issue at the global and national levels.	正当科学日益清楚之际，气候变化现在已经是全球和各国的一个主要政治问题。


Rising sea levels, drought in Africa, and increasingly turbulent storms all pose a new type of threat that must be taken seriously.	海平面升高、非洲的干旱以及日益剧烈的风暴都构成一种新的威胁，必须严肃对待。


So measures to deal with energy security must address the demand side even more than the supply side.	所以，应付能源安全的措施必须要比供应方更加处理需求方。


Measures that some legislators favor, such as transforming coal into liquids, increase secure supplies, but they imply more carbon dioxide emissions than imported oil does.	某些立法者喜欢类似将煤炭转化为液体、增加��全供应等措施，但是，这些措施要比进口石油产生更多的二氧化碳排放。


They should be avoided until technologies for clean coal or carbon capture are perfected.	在清洁煤炭和回收二氧化碳的技术没有完善之前应当避免这些措施。


On the other hand, reducing demand through improved energy efficiency and conservation measures are beneficial for both the security of supplies and the global climate.	在另一方面，通过改进能源效力和节能措施减少需求对于供应国和全球气候而言都是有益的。


But it is not enough for the US and European Union countries to improve their energy efficiency unless other countries do so as well.	但是，除非其他国家也提高其能源效力，否则，美国和欧盟国家这样做是不够的。


China and India can pursue security of supply by using their large coal resources, but unless they also have access to improved coal technology, the burdens they impose on the atmosphere will be large.	中国和印度可以通过利用其巨大的煤炭来源来寻求供应安全，但是，除非它们可以得到改进的煤炭技术，否则，它们带给大气的负担将会是巨大的。


This year, China will surpass the US in emissions of greenhouse gases.	今年，中国将在温室气体排放上超越美国。


It builds nearly two new coal-fired electricity plants each week.	它每周几乎都兴建两个新的火力发电厂。


In such a world, energy security can no longer be summed up as greater energy independence.	在这样的一个世界中，能源安全不能再简单地概括为更大的能源自足问题。


Instead, we must find better ways to cope with energy interdependence.	而是，我们必须找到应对能源相互依赖的更好方式。


The Changing Map of Middle East Power	中东实力地图的变迁


BERLIN – The eruption of the Arab revolts in late 2010 and early 2011 put power relations among Middle Eastern countries in a state of flux, and both winners and losers have emerged.	柏林—2010年末、2011年初爆发的阿拉伯革命让中东国家实力关系乱成了一锅粥，产生了赢家和输家。


But, given that the strengths and weaknesses of most of the actors are highly contingent, the regional balance of power remains highly fluid.	但是，由于大部分行动方的优势和劣势都是高度不确定的，地区实力平衡仍然极不稳定。


As that balance currently stands, Egypt continues to be one of the region’s most influential actors, with the success or failure of its political and economic transition affecting how other Arab countries develop.	目前的实力平衡是，埃及仍然是地区最有影响力的行动方之一，其政治和经济转型的成与败影响着其他阿拉伯国家的发展。


But Egypt is weighed down by domestic concerns, including a plummeting economy and a security situation in which the military is used for police tasks.	但埃及的影响因为国内问题二有所削弱，包括遭受重创的经济和用军队来处理政治任务的安全局势。


The expansion of Egypt’s soft power will depend on the ability of its first democratically elected government, led by President Mohamed Morsi, to take difficult decisions and forge domestic consensus.	埃及软实力的扩张将取决于以总统穆尔西为首的、其第一届民主选出的政府的作出艰难决定和铸造国内一致的能力。


Success in establishing effective governance would establish a model that many of Egypt’s neighbors would seek to emulate, at least partly.	成功地树立成功的治理将形成一个模式，埃及的诸多邻国都可以效仿（至少是部分效仿）。


In this respect, Turkey is a good example.	在这方面，土耳其是一个很好的例子。


Turkey’s power rests primarily on its vibrant economy.	土耳其的实力主要建立在其强健的经济上。


Its impressive military strength is of limited use as an instrument of power, and its political clout has been overestimated, particularly in Syria.	其令人印象深刻的军事优势作为展示实力的工具作用有限，而其政治影响力被高估，特别是在叙利亚。


A rapprochement with Israel and, more important, a lasting peace with its Kurdish population, would boost Turkey’s regional influence.	于以色列重归于好以及（更重要的）于库尔德人保持和平相处将提振土耳其的地区影响力。


Israel also remains an overall winner, despite the changing strategic environment and its virtual lack of soft power in the region.	以色列也是总体赢家，尽管战略环境在变化，且它缺少地区软实力。


The impending fall of Israel’s most reliable enemy, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, concerns Israel almost as much as the loss of its ally, Egypt’s former President Hosni Mubarak.	以色列最坚定的敌人——叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的即将倒台给以色列造成的忧虑不亚于其盟友埃及前总统穆巴拉克的损失。


With Israel’s economy and deterrent capability stronger than ever, however, no regional player poses a genuine security threat to Israel in the short term.	但是，以色列的经济和威慑实力前所未有地强大，没有任何地区势力能在短期给它造成真正的安全威胁。


Meanwhile, Qatar’s diligent efforts to expand its influence over the last two decades have paid off, with the country developing considerable power of attraction.	与此同时，过去二十年来卡塔尔想尽办法扩张其影响力并已经收到成效，该国的吸引力已经蔚为可观。


Since 2011, Qatar has scaled up its involvement in its neighbors’ affairs, backing the Libyan revolution, the Egyptian government, and the Syrian opposition.	2011年以来，卡塔尔加大了对邻国事务的参与，支持过利比亚革命、埃及政府和叙利亚反对派。


But the Qataris may be overplaying their hand.	但卡塔尔或许玩得有些过火。


Qatar has money, but no other hard power, and it has been criticized for its interference in Syria and its support for the Muslim Brotherhood.	卡塔尔有钱，但除此之外再无硬实力，并因其对叙利亚的干涉和支持穆斯林兄弟会而饱受诟病。


If Qatar fails to use its resources wisely, it may lose the legitimacy that it needs to underpin its patronage.	如果卡塔尔不能明智地利用这一资源，就可能失去它所需要的援助活动的合法性。


Meanwhile, Syria’s civil war highlights the loss of that country’s once-considerable influence in the region.	与此同时，叙利亚内战凸显出该国失去了曾经出众的地区影响力。


Instead, Syria has become the object of a geopolitical struggle among other regional actors.	叙利亚已经变成其他地区行动方地缘政治角力的目标。


But the efforts of the Gulf states to arm the Syrian opposition are insufficient to set the conflict on a definitive course, especially given the heavy weapons that the Assad regime has at its disposal.	但波斯湾国家武装叙利亚反对派的动作不足以决定性地解决这场冲突，特别是在巴沙尔政权拥有重武器的情况下。


And the opposition has not been able to appropriate the reputation and clout that Assad has lost.	反对派也无法拥有巴沙尔所失去的名誉和实力。


In fact, regardless of the balance of power between the regime and its opponents, Syria probably will not reestablish a strong, centralized government for decades, if ever.	事实上，不论政权和反对派之间的实力平衡如何，叙利亚或许在数十年内（也许是永远）都无法重建强大的中央集权政府。


At best, Syria will emerge from the current conflict with a decentralized or federal state; at worst, the country will go the way of Somalia.	最好的情形是叙利亚经过当前的冲突成为分散的联邦国家； 最坏的情形是重蹈索马里覆辙。


Either way, Syria is currently firmly in the loser’s camp.	无论如何，叙利亚目前显然处于输家阵营。


Iraq could have been a winner, had it been able to translate the recovery of its oil industry and the withdrawal of US troops into political stabilization and regional influence.	伊拉克本可以成为赢家，如果它成功地将石油业的复苏和美军的撤离转化为政治稳定和地区影响力的话。


But, with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government widely considered to be another authoritarian and sectarian regime, Iraq has not been able to gain any soft power.	但是，总理马利基的政府被广泛认为是又一个独裁的宗派式政府，伊拉克终究没有赢得任何软实力。


Moreover, the chances that Iraqi Kurdistan will achieve de facto or de jure independence are greater than ever.	此外，伊拉克库尔德人获得事实或法律独立的可能性比以前任何时候都大。


Iraq’s Kurds may even be able to extend their influence into Kurdish-populated northern Syria, thereby becoming a more influential regional player than the Iraqi government in Baghdad.	伊拉克库尔德人甚至可能将其影响力扩张到库尔德人众多的叙利亚北部，从而成为比巴格达的伊拉克政府更有影响力的地区行动方。


Neighboring Iran seems to be the quintessential survivor.	相邻的伊朗可谓典范式幸存者。


It has coped with the international community’s increasingly stifling sanctions, while maintaining its nuclear program and continuing to participate in the diplomatic process with the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany).	它应付着国际社会越来越令人窒息的制裁，与此同时还维持着核计划，并继续参与与P5+1（五大联合国安理会常任理事国加上德国）的外交程序。


Iran has strengthened its influence in Iraq, and has helped to keep the Assad regime, a key ally, in power much longer than expected.	伊朗强化了其在伊拉克的影响力，帮助关键盟友巴沙尔维持着政权（远远超出了人们预期的坚持时间）。


But rising political polarization in the region could undermine Iran’s standing.	但地区政治的极化可能破坏伊朗的立场。


As regional conflicts are increasingly defined along Sunni-Shia lines, it is becoming more difficult for Shia-dominated Iran to gain influence in Sunni-majority countries.	随着地区冲突越来越凸显出逊尼派-什叶派对峙的特征，什叶派占主导地位的伊朗将越来越难以在逊尼派占多数的国家形成影响力。


And Iran’s support for Assad’s brutal regime in Syria is damaging further its once-considerable soft power in other Arab countries.	伊朗支持巴沙尔在叙利亚的残酷统治进一步破坏了其在其他阿拉伯国家中曾经可观的软实力。


Saudi Arabia can also be counted as a survivor, as it copes with deep strategic insecurity stemming from Iran’s efforts to undermine its position, social unrest in its neighbor and ally Bahrain, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power in Egypt.	沙特阿拉伯也可以视为幸存者，因为它成功地应付了深层次的战略危险（由伊朗试图破坏其地位所致）、邻国兼盟友巴林的社会动荡和穆斯林兄弟会在埃及的崛起掌权。


Saudi leaders have also become increasingly suspicious of their American allies, on whom the country’s security depends.	沙特领导人也日益怀疑他们的美国盟友、国家安全的倚靠对象。


At the same time, the Saudi leadership is facing significant domestic challenges, including vast economic disparities, inadequate services, growing frustration with the lack of political freedom, and a difficult succession process within the royal family.	与此同时，沙特领导层面临着重大国内挑战，包括严重的经济不平等、服务不足、对缺少政治自由的日益增加的不满，以及皇室内部举步维艰的继承程序。


Nevertheless, though Saudi Arabia’s soft power is waning, its massive oil wealth will likely ensure that it remains a regional heavyweight.	尽管如此，虽然沙特的软实力在消失，其巨量的石油财富或能继续保证它拥有地区重要性。


Non-state actors also play a crucial role in the Middle East’s balance of power.	非国家行动方也在中东实力平衡重扮演关键角色。


Religious minorities have become more insecure.	宗教少数派处境日艰。


The once-oppressed Kurds are gaining ground.	一度被镇压的库尔德人正在起势。


Of the main transnational political groups, the Muslim Brotherhood has been the clearest winner.	在主要跨国政治组织重，穆斯林兄弟会是最显而易见的赢家。


But success brings new challenges.	但成功带来了新挑战。


Islamist-led governments must deliver on the socioeconomic front, while building democratic institutions.	伊斯兰教徒领导的政府必须在政治经济领域有所作为，同时也要打造民主制度。


(Ironically, they will be able to claim success in having built a better state only when they accept their first electoral defeat.)	（讽刺的是，只有在接受了它们的首次选举失败之后，它们才能够宣布成功地建立了更好的国家。


Indeed, the challenge facing all of the region’s current winners is to translate today’s gains into credible, long-term power.	）事实上，该地区当前所有赢家都面临着将今天的胜利果实转变为可信的长期实力的挑战。


The Chaotic Birth of South Sudan	混乱中可能诞生的南苏丹


MADRID – The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was reached in 2005 between mostly Christian southern Sudan and the country’s Muslim North, ended one of the bloodiest civil wars in modern times.	马德里——2005年基督徒占绝大多数的南苏丹和以穆斯林为主的北苏丹签署的《全面和平协议》（CPA）结束了当代一次最血腥的内战。


Lasting 22 years, that war left more than two million dead.	这场内战持续22年，导致两百万无辜民众丧生。


Now the CPA is poised to face its most vital test: the South’s referendum on independence, scheduled for January 9.	现在《全面和平协议》即将面临最关键的考验： 南苏丹定于1月9日举行独立公投。


Whether or not a new state is born in one of the most strategically sensitive areas of the world is of utmost concern to Sudan’s neighbors and others.	是否会在全世界战略敏感度最高的地区诞生一个新国家是苏丹邻国和其他国家最关注的事件。


Vital issues are at stake: the scramble for oil; China’s robust presence in Sudan; the West’s desire to see a mostly Christian state break the contiguity of Muslim regimes – and the consequent threat of Islamic radicalism – in the region; the regional distribution of the Nile’s waters; and the possibility that independence for the South might lead to Sudan’s total dismemberment along ethnic and religious lines.	其中所涉及的关键问题有： 对石油的争夺，中国在苏丹地区的强势存在，西方希望看到以基督徒为主的国家打破区域内穆斯林政权的垄断——以及由此所导致的伊斯兰极端主义危险； 尼罗河水资源在区域内的分配，以及南苏丹独立可能导致苏丹按宗教和种族界线彻底解体的风险。


The fact that Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s president, is not especially keen to agree to the United Nations’ plan to beef up its peacekeeping force in the country ahead of the referendum raises concern about his intentions.	苏丹总统奥马尔·巴希尔并不着急同意联合国在公投前增加维和部队令外界担心他的真正意图所在。


He would certainly be happy to delay the vote – and, if it is held, to dispute its legitimacy.	他当然希望延迟投票，即使举行投票也会质疑投票结果的合法性。


He might not find that very difficult.	他这样做也许并不太难。


Preparations for the referendum are lagging and inadequate.	独立公投工作准备不足而且严重滞后。


Brinkmanship and broken agreements threaten to turn the referendum’s technical and political difficulties into yet another disaster for the country.	边缘政策和撕毁协议的做法可能会使公投本身的技术和政治难度变成苏丹的又一场灾难。


The 2.5 million Southern Sudanese known to live in the North are under explicit instructions by the South’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army to boycott the referendum, as the SPLA has grounds to believe that Bashir would use their registration to rig the results in favor of unity.	南苏丹人民解放军明确指示住在北方的250万南苏丹人抵制独立公投，因为他们有理由相信巴希尔可能利用其登记参选谋求有利于统一的结果。


Indeed, if not convincingly deterred by the international community, it is extremely difficult to believe that Bashir would let the South secede without a fight.	事实上，若非国际社会的有力震慑，极难相信巴希尔会不发一枪一弹允许南部脱离苏丹。


A crucial bone of contention that might ignite a new war is the future of the country’s oil industry and the North-South border demarcation.	可能导致战火重燃的关键争议焦点是北苏丹划界和苏丹石油工业的未来。


So far, the good offices of the Norwegian government have failed to produce an agreement on the key question of the post-independence distribution of oil revenues between North and South.	迄今为止，挪威政府主导的斡旋工作尚未就独立后石油收入在南北方之间分配的关键问题达成一致意见。


Given that most of Sudan’s oil wealth is concentrated in the South, the management of the oil industry and its revenues after secession is an existential problem for Bashir’s regime and its capacity to control his vast and ethnically diverse country.	鉴于苏丹绝大部分石油财富都集中在南部，如何在南苏丹脱离后对石油业及其收入进行管理及对辽阔的土地和多样的种族加以控制是巴希尔政权面临的生死存亡的挑战。


It is in the oil-rich border areas that a new war might erupt.	富含石油资源的边界地区可能再次开战。


As one of the poorest and neediest countries in the world, for which oil revenues would be the only source of income for years to come, an independent South Sudan could not be expected to rescue the debt-ridden North.	作为全世界最贫困的国家，石油收入将在很多年内成为唯一的收入来源，因此不能指望独立之后的南苏丹救助债台高筑的北苏丹。


Its own challenge lies in reforming the entire oil industry, which for years has been brutally and irresponsibly exploited by Chinese and Malaysian companies, with devastating environmental consequences.	苏丹自身的挑战在于改革整个石油行业，后者多年来遭到中国和马来西亚企业残酷和不负责任的开发，造成了灾难性的环境后果。


Conspicuously, Bashir’s regime has been disqualified in the eyes of its neighbors in Africa and the Arab world to a degree that makes the South’s secession a more acceptable option to the main regional stakeholders than ever before.	显而易见，巴希尔政权在非洲邻国和阿拉伯世界眼中的形象已经败坏到相当程度，足以让南苏丹独立成为主要区域势力更容易接受的选择。


Indeed, the Arab world as a whole seems to have given up on Bashir.	事实上，阿拉伯国家从总体上看似乎已经放弃了巴希尔政权。


Some Arab leaders still toy with the idea that overthrowing him might yet salvage a united Sudan, but it is probably too late for that.	某些阿拉伯领导人仍然不肯放弃推翻他或许可以挽救统一苏丹的理想，但要想实现这一目标已经太晚。


After failing to moderate Bashir into accepting a secular decentralized or confederate Sudan, Egypt, a key Arab player concerned about the stability of its southern border, has come to accept the inevitability of secession – so long as the new state lines up with it on the issue of the Nile’s waters.	在无法说服巴希尔接受世俗分权或联邦制苏丹后，埃及这个重要的阿拉伯国家出于对其南部边境稳定的关注，已经慢慢接受了南苏丹独立不可避免的理念——只要新独立的国家在尼罗河问题上能与埃及达成一致。


Egypt’s fears are mainly of Sudan’s disintegration into a chaotic tapestry of mini-states controlled by warlords and plunged into lawlessness and bloody tribal feuds.	苏丹最终解体为军阀割据、目无法纪、血腥部族争斗连绵不断的众多混乱小国是埃及最大的恐惧。


In that case, what remains of “Sudan” – Khartoum, Gezira, and the two northern states – might degenerate even further, probably turning into a base for global Islamic terrorism.	在那种情况下，喀土穆、杰济拉和两个北部省份等剩余的“苏丹”领土也许会进一步退化，甚至可能演变为全球范围内的伊斯兰恐怖主义基地。


Black Africa, particularly the East African Community, cannot think of any solution other than secession.	黑非洲，特别是东非东同体，想不出比独立更好的解决办法。


To EAC members, this is a matter of de-colonization, for southern Sudan’s people have been enslaved, dehumanized, and humiliated for centuries by the Arabs.	在东非共同体成员国看来，这个问题关乎去殖民化，即南苏丹民众几百年来被阿拉伯人奴役、羞辱、及遭受非人的待遇。


Hence, as the Kenyans put it, the border between northern and southern Sudan should become the border between Black Africa and the Arab World.	因此，正如肯尼亚人所说，南北苏丹的边界也应当成为黑非洲和阿拉伯世界的边界。


Concerned by Bashir’s delaying tactics, both Kenya and Uganda have advised their southern Sudanese friends not to make demarcation of the border a pre-condition for the referendum, as doing so would only play into Bashir’s hands.	出于对巴希尔拖延战术的担忧，肯尼亚和乌干达都建议他们的南苏丹朋友不要将划界作为全民投票的前提，因为这样做可能正合巴希尔之意。


United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rightly defined the upcoming referendum as a “ticking time bomb.”	美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿将即将举行的全民投票准确地形容为“嘀嗒作响的定时炸弹”。


She also made it clear, however, that the outcome, independence for the South, is “inevitable.”	但她同时也明确指出，南苏丹独立的结果“不可避免”。


But, to avoid a cataclysm, the US and its allies must defuse the bomb by enforcing the provisions of the 2005 CPA, which they all endorsed.	不过，美国及其盟国必须严格执行经各方批准的2005年《全面和平协议》，这样才能拆除炸弹的引信，避免发生大的灾难。


They would have virtually all of the regional stakeholders on their side as well.	几乎所有的地区势力都会站在他们一边。


Feeding Young Minds	充实年轻的头脑


NEW DELHI – Of the many sad news stories emerging recently from India, the saddest in a long time concerns the deaths of 23 schoolchildren in July in Chhapra, the main town in the impoverished rural Saran district of the state of Bihar.	新德里—在印度最近的一系列坏消息中，长期看最坏的一个是比哈尔邦Saran贫穷农村地区Chhapra 二十三名学生丧生的事件。


The children were poisoned by their midday meals – a vital part of a government-run nutrition program in schools – which apparently were cooked in oil that had been carelessly stored in used pesticide containers.	这些孩子因为有毒的午餐——政府学校营养计划的关键部分——而失去了生命，做午餐用的油显然存储不当，被放在了使用过的杀虫剂桶里。


The sheer horror – parents seeing their kids safely off to school, only to have them be killed there by something intended to benefit them – is unbearable.	这起恶性事件——家长认为安全才把孩子送到学校，但他们却被本意是让他们受益的项目夺走了生命——是不可容忍的。


The reaction has been predictable breast-beating about the inefficiency of India’s government services (particularly in rural areas), the country’s woeful standards of hygiene, and inattentive implementation of even flagship national schemes by the country’s 28 state governments.	反应不难预测——对政府服务（特别在农村地区）效率低下、糟糕的国家卫生标准以及28个邦政府对印度最重要的全国计划的实施不力的口诛笔伐。


The midday meal scheme itself has been trashed in India and abroad as wasteful and counter-productive.	午餐制度本身因为浪费和不利于生产而被印度和外国放弃。


“Free school meals kill Indian children,” one headline screamed.	《免费学校餐杀害印度儿童》一则新闻标题如是说。


Another commentator even went so far as to claim that there is “little evidence to suggest that schoolchildren are actually getting any nutritional value from it at all.”	另一位评论家更加夸张，他甚至声称“几无证据表明学生真能从学校餐中获得任何营养价值。 ”


Critics of the scheme view it as symptomatic of big government run amok and ask why it is necessary for any government to feed schoolchildren.	该制度的批评者认为这是政府经营的杀人狂，并诘问为何政府必须为学生提供膳食。


The answer, in India, is that no one else could.	在印度，答案是没有其他人能代替政府来做这件事。


While various small school-lunch programs existed, the idea of a massive government-backed scheme originated three decades ago in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.	尽管大量小规模学校午餐计划已经取消，但采取大规模政府支持制度的观点起源于30年前的泰米尔纳德邦。


When Tamil Nadu’s chief minister at the time, the film star M.G. Ramachandran, introduced free school meals statewide, the measure was widely criticized as populist and fiscally irresponsible.	G. Ramachandran）引入全邦免费学校餐制度时，这项措施受到了广泛的批评，被视为民粹主义，也不符合财政责任。


Children, his detractors argued, go to school to learn, not to eat.	他的批评者指出，儿童到学校是去学习而不是去吃的。


But if children do not get enough to eat, they cannot learn: empty stomachs make it difficult to fill minds.	但如果孩子们吃不饱，他们就无法学习：胃中空空，脑子里也难以填进东西去。


Tamil Nadu’s voters, who supported the scheme at election time, silenced the critics.	泰米尔纳德邦的选民在选举期间支持该制度，他们平息了批评。


So did the scheme’s results – improved literacy rates and nutrition levels.	该制度的结果也很争气——识字率和营养水平有所改善。


Soon, other states were imitating the program, and in 1995, India’s central government followed suit, supplementing state governments’ budgets so that children throughout the country could enjoy the same benefit.	很快，其他邦纷纷效而仿之，1995年，印度中央政府也决定跟进，补贴邦政府预算以便全国的孩子都能获得相同的好处。


Today, 87% of government schools implement the scheme.	如今，87%的政府学校实施了该制度。


The midday meal scheme – which costs India’s government about $2 billion a year, with additional funding coming from state governments – feeds 120 million schoolchildren in more than a million primary schools across the country.	午餐制度每年花费印度政府不过20亿美元，其他资金来自邦政府 。 该制度为全国100多万所小学的1.


By providing free and balanced nutrition to schoolchildren, it has provided a powerful incentive to poor families to send their kids to school and, equally important, to keep them there throughout the day.	2亿学生提供免费的营养均衡的膳食，对贫穷家庭来说，这是让他们把孩子送到学校并（这一点同样重要）让他们在学校里呆一整天的强大激励。


Indeed, thanks to the scheme, school-attendance rates have improved, sometimes by as much as 10%, and dropout rates have declined.	事实上，归功于这一制度，印度入学率获得了改善，有时改善程度高达10%，而辍学率则有所下降。


And obliging children of different castes to eat the same meal at the same time in the same place has broken down social barriers in a highly stratified society.	而让不同种姓儿童在同一时间同一地点吃相同的膳食也打破了阶级分明的印度社会的社会壁垒。


Children whose families could not afford to feed them properly have benefited significantly.	来自无法提供合理膳食的家庭的儿童获得了极大的好处。


In drought-affected areas, the midday meal scheme has allowed children who otherwise would have starved to overcome malnourishment.	在旱灾地区，午餐制度让孩子们免于受饿，从而战胜了营养不良。


Allegations that the scheme lacks nutritional value have been disproved.	批评该制度没有营养价值的人是信口胡说。


One scholar, Farzana Afridi, reported in the Journal of Development Economics that the program “improved nutritional intakes by reducing the daily protein deficiency of a primary school student by 100%, the calorie deficiency by almost 30%, and the daily iron deficiency by nearly 10%.”	一位名叫阿夫里迪（Farzana Afridi）的学者在《发展经济学期刊》上报告说，该制度“让小学生日常蛋白质摄入不足的比率下降了100%，热量摄入不足比率下降了近30%，铁摄入不足比率下降了近10%，因而改善了营养摄入。 ”


But, while the midday meal scheme’s benefits have ensured its popularity, the quality of its implementation has varied across states.	但是，尽管午餐制度的好处确保了它的推广，但其实施质量在全国参差不齐。


The national government provides funds for cooks and helpers, and has devised guidelines for the program’s implementation, but schools are under the jurisdiction of state governments, some of which are more capable than others of maintaining the standards required to provide a reliable service.	国家政府提供了厨师和助手经费，也提供该计划的实施指南，但学校归邦政府管，各邦维持可靠服务所必须的标准的能力存在差异。


Many northern states, such as Bihar, have lagged in providing kitchens, storage facilities, and utensils.	许多北方邦，比如比哈尔邦，在提供厨房、存储设施和餐具方面较为落后。


The rule requiring at least two adults to taste meals before they are served to children has often been ignored, as it was in the Chhapra tragedy.	按规定，在把午餐送到儿童跟前之前，至少应该先由两名成人试吃，但这一规定经常被忽视，在Chhapra悲剧中便是如此。


Attempts to enforce the rule have met unexpected resistance from teachers, who are obliged to rotate tasting duty: they object that they are at school to teach students, not to taste food.	强化规则的努力出人意料地遭到了来自教师的抵制，他们得轮流承担试吃责任，而他们反对的��因是他们在学校是为了教孩子而不是尝食物的。


Some teachers’ unions have refused to perform the task.	一些教师工会拒绝承担这一责任。


Sadder still has been the reaction of some parents in Bihar, who have withdrawn their children from school rather than risk their being poisoned.	悲痛仍是比哈尔邦一些家长的反应，他们让孩子们从学校回家，以免遭到毒害。


Such concerns are understandable but manifestly exaggerated.	家长的担心是可以理解的，但显然矫枉过正了。


The Chhapra tragedy has at least focused attention on a scheme that public opinion has largely taken for granted.	Chhapra悲剧至少开始让人们关注了一个在很大程度上被公众视为理所当然的制度。


But it would be a great pity if, in examining what went wrong, deficiencies in the program’s implementation were to obscure its accomplishments.	但如果在检查错误的过程中，制度实施的低效性阻碍了它的完成，那将令人无比遗憾。


The midday meal scheme has transformed lives and helped educate a generation of poor schoolchildren.	午餐制度改变了儿童的生活，有助于为一整代贫困儿童提供了教育。


It should be emulated by other developing countries, not shunned because of a preventable disaster.	其他发展中国家应该效仿这一做法，而不是因为可预防的灾难而停止脚步。


Indeed, the Chhapra tragedy would be compounded were it to end up derailing a program that is benefiting millions of children and their families every day.	事实上，Chhapra悲剧的罪孽将更加慎重，如果它最终造成这一每天造福数百万儿童和他们的家庭的计划流产的话。


The Chimera of Russia’s Gas Power	俄罗斯天然气大国的妄想


Russia began 2006 by cutting off natural gas exports to Ukraine after its government refused to pay a fourfold increase in the subsidized price.	2006年新年伊始，俄罗斯在乌克兰政府拒绝支付四倍于天然气补贴价格后，切断了向该国的天然气出口。


The crisis in Ukraine, many of whose Soviet-era industries depend on cheap Russian gas, soon spread to Europe, which consumes 80% of Russian gas exports, when Ukraine began to divert gas from the pipeline that crosses its territory.	乌克兰众多的后苏联时代产业依赖于廉价的俄罗斯天然气，而欧洲则消费俄罗斯80％的天然气出口。 当乌克兰开始从跨越本国领土的管道中分流天然气之时，这场危机马上波及到了欧洲。


Ironically, 2006 is also the year that Russia takes over the chair of the Group of Eight industrialized countries, which is set to meet in Moscow this spring.	具有讽刺意味的是，2006年俄罗斯成为八国集团轮值主席国，今年春天，八国集团将聚会莫斯科。


The improbable theme that Russian President Vladimir Putin chose for the conference is energy security.	俄罗斯总统普京为本次会议所选择的不大可能的主题是能源安全。


Even though it is no longer a global superpower, Russia’s vast oil and gas reserves make it an energy superpower, and Putin seems intent on playing that card.	俄罗斯当前即使不再是一个全球性超级大国，其巨大的石油和天然气储备使它成为一个能源超级大国，而且普京看起来像要打这张牌。


Oil provides somewhat less economic power than gas because it is a fungible commodity, and interruptions of supply can be made up by purchases on world markets.	由于石油是一种可替代商品，因此它所提供的经济力量比天然气要稍逊一筹。 而且，供应中断可以通过在全球市场采购来得到弥补。


But gas is expensive to transport, for it depends on costly pipelines or gas liquefaction facilities that cannot be replaced quickly when flows are interrupted.	但是，由于天然气依赖于在输送中断时无法立即更换的昂贵的管道或者天然气液化设施，因此，其运输成本昂贵。


Gas provides a tempting form of leverage, and Russia had already used it against Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Moldova.	天然气成为令人垂涎的角力形式，俄罗斯已经用它来对付了格鲁吉亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚以及摩尔多瓦。


But when Gazprom, the Russian state gas monopoly, followed Putin’s instructions to turn off the spigot to Ukraine, Russia crossed a new threshold.	但是，当其国营天然气垄断寡头-俄罗斯天然气工业公司遵照普京的指令关闭向乌克兰送气的龙头是，俄罗斯越过了一个新的分界线。


At first glance, this looks like a classic case of a large country bullying a small country into submission.	初看，这就像是一个大国让一个小国俯首称臣的经典案例。


As Thucydides put it in his history of the Peloponnesian War, “The strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must.”	正如修西底斯在其伯罗奔尼撤战争史中所说：“强者为所欲为，弱者逆来顺受”。


Russia had supported the losing side in Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution” a year ago, and it was time for payback.	俄罗斯在一年前乌克兰“橙色革命”时支持失败的一方，现在是报复的时候了。


But, as it turned out, Putin miscalculed.	但是，普京却失算了。


He underestimated both Ukraine’s leverage as the primary conduit for Russian gas exports to Europe and Europe’s influence as the major consumer of Russian gas.	他同时低估了乌克兰作为俄罗斯天然气出口到欧洲的主要通道的手段以及欧洲作为俄罗斯天然气的主要消费者的影响力。


In the process, he damaged Russia’s reputation as a reliable supplier of natural gas.	在这一过程中，普京破坏了罗斯作为一个可靠的天然气供应者的声誉。


The result was a hastily patched together deal in which Russia and Ukraine each gave ground on price, and a shadowy Swiss-based company half-owned by Gazprom rolled supplies of cheap gas from Turkmenistan into the equation.	这一危机的结果是匆忙达成协议，俄罗斯和乌克兰各自在价格上让步，一个神秘莫测的总部设在瑞士、俄罗斯天然气工业公司拥有一半股份的RosUkrEnergo公司从土库曼斯坦输送廉价天然气。


Some analysts, as well as former Ukrainian prime minister Yuliya Tymoshenko, raised accusations of corruption against the company, RosUkrEnergo.	乌克兰前总理季莫申科以及一些分析人士对这一公司提出了腐败的指责。


But, charges of corruption aside, this outcome indicates that gas is not such an easy source of hard economic power as it would first appear.	但是，把腐败指控放在一边，这一结果显示，天然气并非像初看一样是一种轻而易举的、实实在在的经济实力源泉。


Some economists argue that there is little power in relationships where buyers and sellers consent to a price that clears a market.	有些经济学家认为，买卖双方同意一个符合市场的价格时，双方关系中没有什么实力可言。


However, in cases where buyers and sellers are not equally dependent upon the relationship, the greater vulnerability of the more dependent party can be used as a source of coercive power by the less dependent party.	但是，当买卖双方并非同等地依赖于这一关系时，较少依赖的一方就可以利用更为依赖的一方的脆弱性作为强制力量的一个来源。


Russia thought it was less dependent than Ukraine, and decided to exercise that power.	俄罗斯以为它与乌克兰相比较少地依赖，于是决定动用这一力量。


But it is one thing to hold the high hand in a game that you play only once.	在游戏中你可以占上风，但是只能玩一次。


For the game to go on indefinitely, you must maintain the trust of the other players.	为了让游戏无限期地进行下去，你必须保持其他玩家的信任。


In other words, the shadow of the future suggests that a moderate strategy is best.	换句话说，未来的阴影表明，温和战略最为可取。


Russia quickly discovered that its threats against Ukraine were too costly to its reputation as a reliable supplier for Europe.	俄罗斯马上发现，威胁乌克兰对于它作为欧洲可以信赖的供应者的声誉来说代价太大。


When considered in this wider European context, there was more symmetry in the Russia-Ukraine energy relationship than the simple numbers on energy dependence implied at first glance.	在把更为宏观的欧洲环境考虑进去后，俄罗斯与乌克兰能源关系就要比初看的有关能源依赖的简单数字更为平衡了。


Where does this leave Europe’s energy security?	这场危机对欧洲的能源安全影响如何？


Germany’s Economics Minister, Michael Glos, has said that Russia’s questionable dependability means that the time has come to explore other energy sources .	德国经济部长克罗斯说过，俄罗斯的可靠性令人怀疑，意味着到了探索其他能源来源的时候了。


That will not be easy.	那不是一件易事。


Gas provides nearly a quarter of Europe’s energy, compared to 14% for nuclear power.	原子能为欧洲提供14％的能源，与此相比，天然气则将近四分之一。


Even if governments rethink their ban on new nuclear plants, accelerate development of windmills and solar panels, and search for new gas supplies, Europe will remain dependent on Russian gas for more than a decade.	即使欧洲各国政府重新考虑其禁止修建新的核电厂的立场，加快风车和太阳能板的开发，并且寻找新的天然气供应，欧洲仍然要在超过十年的时间里依赖于俄罗斯的天然气。


At the same time, as Europe’s largest consumer of Russian gas, Germany has built its hopes for energy security on developing a rich web of economic ties with Russia.	与此同时，作为欧洲最大的俄罗斯天然气消费国，德国把能源安全的希望建立在与俄罗斯发展广泛的经济联系上。


Former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder even became chair of a Russian-German consortium to build a new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.	德国前总理施罗德甚至担任了一家修建从俄罗斯到德国的新的管道的俄德联合公司的董事长。


But, as the Ukraine episode indicates, pipelines dedicated to a single country may be less reliable than those that run through several countries.	但是，正如乌克兰事件所表明的那样，专门通往单一国家的管道可能会比经过几个国家的较为不可靠。


If Russia is going to throw its weight around, it is better to have allies among those affected.	如果俄罗斯打算施展其影响力，最好同那些受到影响中的某些国家结盟。


The key to energy security is diversity – of pipelines as well as sources of supply.	能源安全的关键是多元化，不仅是管道要多元化，供应源也要多元化。


Small neighbors without options will suffer, but Europe may not.	没有选择的弱小邻国会遭殃，但是欧洲并不会这样。


In the end, the next decade will be marked by a delicate balance in which Europe remains dependent on Russian gas, but Russia’s need for export revenues will also make it dependent on Europe.	最终，下一个十年的特点是，欧洲继续依赖于俄罗斯的天然气，但是俄罗斯需要出口收入将使它依赖于欧洲，二者之间取得微妙的平衡。


The lesson from the Ukraine episode is that while Russia is less of a gas superpower than it would appear, Europe would be wise for to start building greater diversity into the energy relationship.	乌克兰事件的教训是，由于俄罗斯并非像是看起来那样的天然气超级大国，欧洲开始在能源关系中建立更大的多样性是明智之举。


The China Bears’ Feeble Growl	看空中国不可取


BEIJING – In recent months, bearish sentiment about the Chinese economy has surged, owing largely to three conjectures.	北京——近几个月来，看空中国的情绪开始高涨，主要是因为三个猜测。


First, China’s housing market is on the brink of collapse.	首先，中国房地产市场已处于崩溃边缘。


Second, China’s fiscal position will worsen rapidly because of massive local government debt.	其次，中国财政状况将因大规模地方政府债务而急速恶化。


And, third, the collapse of underground credit networks in bustling cities such as Wenzhou will lead to a broad financial crisis across the country.	第三，温州等地的地下信用网络的崩盘将导致席卷全国的大规模金融危机。


In fact, despite its problems, China’s economy remains in good condition – at least so far.	事实上，尽管存在诸多问题，但中国经济依然状况良好，至少从目前来看是如此。


Indeed, it is not yet near to hitting the rocks.	中国还远未出现触礁危险。


Since the twenty-first century began, skyrocketing housing prices in China, except for a short respite during the global financial crisis, have caused serious social discontent.	自21世纪以来，中国房价出现了暴涨，只是在全球金融危机期间略有回调，这已经造成了极大的社会不满。


After years of half-hearted effort, China’s government has finally clamped down on housing speculation.	在多年只打雷不下雨之后，中国政府终于开始了整治房地产投机之路。


As a result, prices fell in October for the first time this year, while real-estate investment growth fell as well.	结果，10月房价出现了今年首次下跌，房地产投资增长也出现了下降。


But the fall in housing prices is unlikely to turn into a rout, because real demand for houses will remain strong after speculative demand is driven from the market.	但房价的下跌不会演变成崩盘，因为在投机性需求从市场中挤出后，住房真实需求依然强劲。


As soon as housing prices fall to an affordable level, buyers will enter the market and set a floor under the decline.	只要房价下跌到可承受水平，买房者就会进入市场，此时房价就会见底。


Moreover, because there are no subprime mortgages in China and down payments are as high as 50-60%, even a significant fall in housing prices will not seriously damage China’s mega-banks.	此外，因为中国没有次级按揭贷款，首付也高达50—60%，因此即使是放假的大幅下跌也不会重创中国的银行巨头。


Over the past decade, real-estate investment in China has been the single most important contributor to fixed-asset investment growth and therefore, to the economy.	在过去十年中，房地产投资是中国固定资产投资中最大的一块，也是经济增长最主要的推动力。


Indeed, since the late 1990’s, the real estate investment-to-GDP ratio has been far higher than it was in countries like Japan and Korea during their high-growth periods.	事实上，自20世纪90年代末以来，房地产投资-GDP比率已经远远高出日本和韩国等国家高速增长期的水平了。


It is simply wrong for a developing country with per capita income of $5,000 to concentrate its resources on producing concrete and cement.	作为人均收入不到5000美元的发展中国家，将资源集中在钢筋水泥上肯定是错误的。


Although a significant decline in real-estate investment will have a very serious negative impact on China’s growth –  which can and should be prevented – as long as the fall is not too drastic, it is a welcome development.	尽管房地产投资的大幅下降会给中国的经济增长带来严重负面影响——这一点可以也应该预防——但只要跌幅不是太猛，对中国就是利大于弊的。


Meanwhile, local government debts are a relatively new phenomenon.	与此同时，地方政府债务倒是相对新鲜的事物。


In 2009, local governments were encouraged to create Special Purpose Vehicles, specifically “local finance platforms” (LFPs), to supplement China’s RMB4 trillion ($628.7 billion) stimulus package.	2009年，地方政府被鼓励成立特殊目的实体，特别是“地方财政平台”（LFP），以此为4万亿人民币刺激计划提供资金。


The LFPs would borrow from banks using future government revenue as collateral to finance packaged-investment projects in Chinese localities.	地方财政平台用未来政府收入为抵押从银行获得贷款，为一揽子地方财政投资项目融资。


By 2010, some 6,576 LFPs had been created.	到2010年，一共成立了6576个地方财政平台。


There is no denying that local-government debt is a ticking time bomb for the Chinese economy.	不可否认，地方政府债务是中国经济的定时炸弹。


According to China’s National Audit Office (NAO), these LFPs’ total borrowing amounts to RMB10.7 trillion, of which 79.1% is bank loans.	据中国国家审计署的数据，这些地方财政平台总借贷总量高达10. 7万亿人民币，其中79.


But it is equally true that China’s local-government debt has so far been manageable, and there is no reason to believe that all of it is bad.	1%是银行贷款。 但中国地方政府债务到目前为止仍处于可控范围，也没有理由认为它们全部是不良贷款。


In fact, for the majority of the LFPs, the cash flow generated by investment so far has been enough to meet repayment of principal and interest.	事实上，对于大多数地方财政平台，到目前为止，投资所产生的现金流足以偿还债务本息和。


According to the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) – the largest of China’s “big four” banks – 93% of its loans to LFPs are being repaid regularly.	根据中国工商银行的数据，其地方财政平台贷款中有93%都在被按时偿付。


Indeed, the ICBC’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for LFP loans is as low as 0.3%, while the corresponding coverage ratio – the bank’s ability to absorb losses from NPLs – is 1,066%.	事实上，中国工商银行的地方财政平台单款不良率只有0. 3%，而相应的保付率——即银行吸收不良贷款损失的能力——为1066%。


According to the NAO, the NPL ratio for the RMB10.7 trillion in local-government debt is roughly 2.3%.	根据国家审计署的数据，10. 7万亿人民币地方政府债务中，不良率大约为2.


A significant proportion of total local-government debt either has no direct relation to local governments, or cannot be guaranteed by them.	地方政府债务总量中有很大一部分要么与地方政府没有直接关系，要么不能获得地方政府的担保。


Therefore, in legal terms, it is not government debt at all.	因此，从法律上说，它们根本不是政府债务。