Planned economies were never able to flourish because uncertainty about the future is just too high, something that is best left to the speculators, with the potential of reward if they are right and the disciplining whip of the market if they are wrong.	计划经济从未能繁荣就是因为关于未来的不确定风险太高。 而不确定因素最好留给投机者，给他们机会在顺应市场规律时获得回报，在违反规则时受到市场惩罚。


Concerns about free trade similar to Sarkozy’s are gaining strength around the world.	和Sarkozy的观点类似的对自由贸易的担忧在全球争愈演愈烈。


In an article last year in the US journal Foreign Affairs , Alan Blinder, a former advisor to President Bill Clinton and Vice-Chair of the US Federal Reserve Board, argued that the process of globalization has the potential to cause massive job loss in the future.	在去年的美国《外交》杂志上发表的一篇文章里，克林顿总统的前顾问兼美联储副主席Allan Blinder表示全球化进程有可能在未来造成大量的失业。


Given that electronic communications technology has a powerful potential to replace employees with others who are thousands of miles away, we may now be seeing only the beginning of this process.	鉴于电子通信技术的强大潜力能让公司以远在千里之外的人员来替代本地雇员，我们现在所看到的还仅仅是这一进程的端倪。


Blinder is absolutely right that the problem could get worse.	Blinder对这个问题不断增加的严重性的认识完全正确。


Deniers of the problem – such as economist Jagdish Baghwati – cannot prove that the worst will not happen.	否认这个问题的人—如经济学家Jagdish Baghwati—不能证明最坏的结果不会发生。


We ought to prepare for the possibility of massive turmoil in our economies in coming years, even if we cannot prove that it will happen, just as we should take steps against global warming, even if some scientists doubt that it is a problem.	我们必须为在将来发生大规模经济动荡的可能做足准备，即便我们不能证明这样的情况会发生，正如我们应该采取措施应对全球变暖，即便有的科学家对此问题持怀疑态度一样。


According to Blinder, governments should encourage education for jobs that are harder to outsource overseas.	在Blinder看来，政府因该鼓励兴办教育，培养那些不容易被外包到海外的职业。


He wants the government to subsidize “personally-delivered service” jobs, which cannot be delivered over the Internet, to encourage the expansion of such jobs instead of “impersonally-delivered services.”	他想让政府为不能通过互联网实现的“人性化服务（personally-delivered service）”性质的工作提供补贴，从而鼓励这种职业，而不是“非人性化服务（impersonally-delivered service）”的扩展。


Subsidies, of course, interfere with free trade.	补贴当然是对自由贸易的干预。


But Blinder’s solution appears to be a creative new idea, and one may think of legitimate justifications for the government to interfere with free markets this way.	但Blinder的解决方案似乎是一个有创意的新概念，通过这种方式可以为政府干预自由市场寻求合法的解释。


His idea certainly is more focused and theoretically sound than Sarkozy’s plans to protect existing jobs.	他的理念当然比Sarkozy保护现有就业的计划更有针对性和理论基础。


In fact, Blinder’s proposal is only one of many possible government policies aimed at dealing with the Internet-age turmoil in the market for jobs and livelihoods.	实际上，Blinder的提案只是众多可能出台的政策之一。 这些政策的目的��是应对网络时代对就业市场和民生造成的动荡。


Capitalist institutions include risk-management schemes that provide insurance, hedging, and diversification.	资本主义制度包括了提供保险、对冲和多元化在内的风险管理机制。


Government can promote the democratization of such institutions so that they protect people from the very risks that they are worrying most about.	政府可以推动这些制度的民主化从而让其能够帮助人们防范最为担心的风险。


Such possibilities include livelihood insurance, home equity insurance, income-linked loans, and GDP-linked and home-price-linked securities.	这些可能的防范形式包括人寿保险、家庭财产保险、与收入挂钩的贷款和与GDP及房产价格挂钩的证券。


Moreover, government can make our social insurance (a government institution that complements private insurance) more incentive-compatible and better at managing risks – and not just the risks of the extreme losers – by, say, launching inequality-indexation of the tax system.	此外，政府可以使我们的社会保险（一种与商业保险相配套的政府制度）更符合激励机制并更善于管理风险—并不仅是极端失败者的风险—并通过实施诸如税收体系的不平等指数化的方式来实现。


And governments should improve our information infrastructure, so that financial contracts can better capture the outcomes of economic risks.	政府应该改善我们的信息基础设施，以便金融合同能够更好地描述经济风险的后果。


So Sarkozy shouldn’t be lashing out against “speculative capitalism.”	因此，Sarkozy不应该鞭笞“投机资本主义”。


On the contrary, he should be asking how capitalism can be developed even further, with new institutions in finance and insurance to deal with the very important problem that his campaign has highlighted.	相反，他应该追问资本主义应该如何进一步发展，以新的金融和保险制度来应对他在竞选中所提出的那些非常重要的问题。


Taming the Tigers	驯服猛虎


BRUSSELS – Three years ago, Sri Lanka elected Mahinda Rajapaksa as president because he pledged to take the offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the guerillas who have been fighting for 25 years to carve out an independent homeland for the country’s Tamil minority.	布鲁塞尔－三年前，马欣达·拉贾帕克萨（Mahinda Rajapaksa）因为承诺对泰米尔伊拉姆猛虎解放组织——一个为斯里兰卡少数民族泰米尔族开创独立国家战斗了25年的游击组织——发动攻势，而被选为斯里兰卡总统。


Many well-meaning people saw Rajapaksa’s promise as warmongering, and, even as Sri Lanka’s army has been pressing toward victory, urged him to negotiate with perhaps the world’s most fanatical terror organization (the Tamil Tigers, it should be recalled, virtually invented the cult of the modern suicide bomber.)	许多好心人将拉贾帕克萨的承诺看作是好战，而且，即使在斯里兰卡政府军向胜利挺进的时候，他们还强烈要求拉贾帕克萨和这个可能是世界上最狂热的恐怖组织（人们应该记住实际上是泰米尔猛虎组织发明了现代自杀式炸弹袭击）进行谈判。


Fortunately, Rajapaksa listened more to his war-ravaged citizens than to outsiders, and today what seemed impossible – military victory over the Tigers, the oldest, largest, and wealthiest guerrilla army in South Asia – appears at hand.	幸运的是，比起局外人，拉贾帕克萨更多地听取了其饱受战争蹂躏的国民的意见，而且，曾经似乎是不可能的事情——在军事上战胜南亚地区历史最长、规模最大、最富有的游击军队猛虎解放组织——现在似乎是唾手可得了。


Over the past few months, the Tigers have suffered a series of devastating blows.	在过去的几个月里，猛虎解放组织遭受了一系列致命的打击。


Instead of commanding much of northern Sri Lanka, they are now confined to a shrinking pocket, and are reduced to mindless military stunts such as the recent bombing by light aircraft of the tax administration building in the capital, Colombo.	现在，它已经被逼到了一个狭小的区域，不再占据斯里兰卡北部的大部分地区，并且只能进行像最近用小型飞机轰炸首都科伦坡的税务局大楼这样无计划的军事噱头了。


Thousands of Tamil Tiger fighters have deserted.  A rebel army has dwindled to a fanatical few.	泰米尔猛虎解放组织已经有几千名武装人员逃跑了，一支叛乱军队也已经只剩下少数的狂热分子了。


But fighting the Tigers and seeking a peace deal have never been alternatives.	但是，打击猛虎解放组织和寻求达成和平协议从来都不是非此即彼的。


President Rajapaksa’s predecessors spent years engaged in fruitless talks and ceasefires, during which the guerrillas remained committed to their aim of dividing the country, and making demands for political and socio-economic changes that no democracy could accept, even as they carried on killing and kidnapping.	即使在猛虎解放组织成员杀人和绑架的时候，拉贾帕克萨总统的前任们仍然用了多年时间来进行毫无结果的谈判和寻求停火，然而在此期间，猛虎解放组织却依旧致力于分裂国家和要求进行民主社会都无法接受的政治和社会经济改革。


Weakening the Tigers militarily has thus always been a necessary condition for achieving a political settlement with Sri Lanka’s Tamils.	因此，从军事上削弱猛虎组织始终是与斯里兰卡泰米尔人达成政治和解的必要条件。


Now that the guerrillas are boxed in, what can Rajapaksa reasonably offer to them and ordinary Tamils?	现在，猛虎游击队已经陷入了困境，拉贾帕克萨能够顺理成章地为他们和普通的泰米尔人发出什么信息呢？


The Tigers’ leaders have committed crimes against humanity, and some of them engage in criminal activities.	猛虎解放组织的领导人犯下了反人类的罪行，还有些人从事过犯罪行为。


So they have little incentive to demobilize.	所以，他们没有多少放弃武力的动力。


Some Sri Lankans say the best place for the Tiger leaders is jail.	有些斯里兰卡人说，猛虎解放组织领导人的最好去处是监狱。


True, but in politics the best justice can be the enemy of the general good.	是这样的，但是，政治中最佳的正义可能是社会公益的敌人。


Though the Tigers can no longer destroy Sri Lanka’s democracy, fighting to the last guerrilla is in nobody's interest.	虽然猛虎解放组织再也不能破坏斯里兰卡的民主了，但是，战斗到直到猛虎解放组织最后一名游击队员战死，不符合任何人的利益。


Ending this conflict will require political adroitness as well as continued military firmness.	结束这一冲突需要斯里兰卡政府的政治智慧和持续的军事坚定性。


Achieving a lasting peace, though difficult, is possible.	斯里兰卡要取得持久的和平，虽然很困难，但是是可能的。


On the most basic level, it will almost certainly require security guarantees for the Tigers’ leaders.	最基本的是，斯里兰卡政府肯定要保证猛虎解放组织领导人的安全。


But it should not, as some say, include any offer of power-sharing with the guerillas (ordinary Tamils are another matter).	但是，它不应该像有些人说的那样，提出和猛虎解放组织分享权力（和普通的泰米尔人则是另外一回事了）的提议。


Sri Lanka is a democracy.	斯里兰卡是一个民主国家。


In exchange for laying down their arms and ending a pointless and destructive war, Tiger soldiers should be encouraged to take part in politics, but on exactly the same terms as any other Sri Lankan.	作为对猛虎解放组织士兵放下武器和结束没有意义的破坏性战争的交换，斯里兰卡政府应该鼓励他们参政，但是他们参政的条件应该和其他斯里兰卡人参政的条件完全一样。


Nobody should underestimate the difficulty of rebuilding Sri Lanka’s war-ravaged north and reconciling the Tamils at a time of global recession.	人们不应该低估重建饱受战争蹂躏的斯里兰卡北部地区和在全球陷入衰退的时候与泰米尔人达成和解的难度。


In countries with strong ethnic, tribal, and religious divisions, unless it is made clear from the start that everything possible will be done to foster reconciliation, communal enmity will most likely simmer.	在种族、部族以及宗教分化非常明显的国家，除非从一开始就明确要采取一切可能的措施来达成和解，否则，族群间的恨意极有可能爆发。


Any “victory” that the Tamils perceive as leading to subjugation of their rights and aspirations for equality with the majority Sinhalese will be short-lived.	任何泰米尔人认为会导致压制他们的权利和与主要民族僧伽罗族平等地位抱负的“胜利”，都会是短命的。


So Rajapaksa must offer the Tamil people a political compromise, perhaps including some cabinet positions, as well as the promise of a revived economy.	所以，拉贾帕克萨必须为泰米尔人提出一个政治妥协，这样的妥协可能包括让泰米尔人担任一些内阁职务以及承诺振兴经济。


Indeed, the Rajapaksa government, and the majority Sinhalese, must understand that the political and economic reforms needed to achieve a lasting peace are inextricably intertwined.	事实上，拉贾帕克萨政府以及人口占多数的僧伽罗族必须明白，获得持久和平所需的政治和经济改革是完全交织在一起的。


One cannot succeed without the other.	一个改革不能在没有另一个改革的情况下取得成功。


On the political front, a power vacuum must be avoided.	在政治层面上，斯里兰卡政府必须避免政治真空。


Although one of the main goals of reconstruction must be the creation of a democratic system that the Tamils regard as their own, establishing effective governance, and fast, in Sri Lanka’s north matters just as much.	虽然斯里兰卡重建的主要目标之一是建立泰米尔人认为属于自己的民主制度，但是，在斯里兰卡北部地区快速建立有效的治理同样重要。


Order must be restored rapidly, with zero tolerance of looting and other crimes.	斯里兰卡必须迅速恢复那里的秩序，绝对不能容忍抢劫和其他犯罪行为。


Nevertheless, victory over the Tigers need not rule out some form of decentralization that guarantees the Tamils some political say, so long as a degree of local autonomy does not destroy Sri Lanka’s unity.	然而，对猛虎解放组织的胜利，不一定要排除某种保证泰米尔人有一些政治发言权的地方分权形式，只要这种地方自治的程度不至于破坏斯里兰卡的国家统一。


The alternative to such a political compromise may be a return to the tragic and bloody secessionist course that the Tigers sought for so long.	不选择这样的政治妥协，就有可能使斯里兰卡回到猛虎解放组织长久以来所寻求的悲惨而血腥的分裂过程之中。


Indeed, no effort should be spared to get skeptical Tamil groups to participate in the forthcoming peacemaking.	事实上，斯里兰卡应该不遗余力地让充满怀疑的泰米尔团体参加到即将到来的和平进程之中来。


Of course, it may take some time for the Tamils and their leaders to learn the mutual tolerance and self-discipline of democratic government.	当然，让泰米尔人及其领导人了解民主政府的相互宽容和自律，可能会需要一些时间。


Handing over any local power before those leaders are ready to use it would be an error, with potentially disastrous consequences.	在泰米尔领导人作好行使权力的准备之前就将当地的权力移交给他们，可能是一个会带来潜在灾难性后果的错误。


In the Eastern Province, a good start has been made, with former terrorists now winning through the ballot box and not the bullet.	在斯里兰卡的东部省份，已经有一个良好的开端； 在那里，以前的恐怖分子现在在通过投票箱而不是子弹来赢得胜利。


Economic reform also must begin without delay.	斯里兰卡的经济改革也必须毫不迟延地开始。


Sri Lanka’s economy must open up –�not an easy thing to achieve at a time when liberal economic reforms appear to be in disrepute.	斯里兰卡的经济必须开放——在自由经济改革似乎是声名狼藉的时候，要实现它并不是一件容易的事情。


But such an opening is essential if the country’s Tamils are to have real hopes for their future within the country.	但是，如果要使斯里兰卡的泰米尔人对他们在本国的将来怀有真正的希望，这样的开放是至关重要的。


Sri Lanka’s Buddhist traditions and historic links with Burma, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos makes it easy for it to be a future member of ASEAN, which Sri Lanka should try to join as a means of anchoring its economy in the wider region.	斯里兰卡的佛教传统以及与缅甸、泰国、柬埔寨和老挝的历史联系，使其在将来很容易成为东盟的一员； 斯里兰卡也应该努力加入东盟，并以此作为将其经济和更广大的地区联系起来的途径。


Some of what needs to be done, including the sequencing of reconstruction measures, is now better understood – not least due to the different recent experiences in rebuilding Bosnia, Colombia, and other war-torn states.	正是由于有近期重建波斯尼亚、哥伦比亚以及其他遭受战争蹂躏的国家的不同经历，人们现在对斯里兰卡要做的包括重建措施的先后顺序在内的事情，有了更好的理解。


These efforts demonstrated the need to have an effective legal system and functioning state institutions before embarking on big structural reforms.	这些努力显示，在开始重大的结构性改革之前，必须建立有效的法律体系和能够运转的国家机构。


In this respect, Sri Lanka’s ability to maintain its democracy throughout decades of war gives reason for hope.	在这方面，斯里兰卡在几十年的战争中显示出来的维护其民主制度的能力，为人们对它充满希望提供了依据。


Taming Voodoo Economics	驯服巫术经济学


Americans have once again finished a presidential campaign season in which the quality of the debate over economic policy was abysmal.	美国人的总统大选又一次落幕了，其间针对经济政策的辩论质量糟糕得无以复加。


On the Republican side, hacks, spin masters, and many people who ought to have known better suddenly developed an extraordinary appreciation for something called the "CPS Household Survey of Employment" as a supposed guide to month-to-month changes in the labor market.	共和党方面，雇用文人、宣传大师、以及许多本应明白事理的人突然之间对一种名为“CPS家庭就业调查”的东西产生了异乎寻常的宠爱，将之当作劳动力市场每月变化的指南。


The CPS survey was never designed to do this, but it offered the most favorable gloss on the Bush administration's dreadful record on employment.	CPS调查从来不是用于做这种事的，但它却为布什政府在就业问题上的糟糕表现抹了一层讨喜的光彩。


On the Democratic side, the same sorts of hacks and PR men focused like a laser beam on the bad employment news of the George W. Bush years, ignoring the good news about output and productivity.	而民主党这边，类似的雇用文人和公关人士像激光束一样把焦点聚集在乔治·W·布什执政年间令人沮丧的就业状况上，不理会产量和生产力方面的好消息。


And, again, Republicans responded tendentiously, by focusing on the unemployment rate rather than on the job numbers - as if it were a good thing that the lousy labor market since 2001 has artificially depressed the number of people looking for work.	而共和党再次做出了颇具倾向性的回应，强调失业率而不是工作数量——仿佛2001年以来疲软的劳动力市场人为地压低了求职者人数是件好事一般。


Similarly, Republicans glibly touted the Bush tax cuts - the equivalent of which President Bush's father, President George H. W. Bush, two decades ago called "voodoo economics" - as the acme of economic wisdom.	同样，共和党大肆宣传布什的减税政策——相当于布什总统的父亲，乔治·H·W·布什，在二十年前称之为“巫术经济学”的东西——是经济学智慧的极致。


They paid no heed to the large drag that Bush's unbalancing of America's public finances will impose on the US economy over the next several decades.	他们不理会布什执政下美国公共财政的不平衡在接下来的数十年中将给美国经济带来的阻力。


Democrats, for their part, pretended that the tax cuts had already harmed the economy, when they ought to know that the greatest damage is still to come.	而民主党却又假装这些减税政策 已经 对经济造成损害，尽管他们应该明白最严重的损害尚未发生。


The Republicans magnified their economic quackery by frantically trying to minimize public perceptions of the long-run fiscal problems of America's social-insurance system, largely to deflect attention from the fact that Bush threw away the budget surpluses President Clinton had bequeathed him - and with them what may have been the country's last best chance to fix things in this regard short of some form of disaster.	共和党夸大了他们的经济骗术，发疯似的尝试减少公众对美国社会保障系统长期财政问题的感知，主要是把人们的注意力从布什浪费掉克林顿总统留给他的预算盈余——同时浪费掉的还可能有美国在没有某种形式的灾难情况下最后一次治理好这方面问题的好机会——这一事实上转移开。


These same Republicans also argued for government spending restraint while blocking the institutional changes to Congressional procedures needed to make spending restraint possible.	同样是这些共和党人，在赞成限制政府开支的同时又阻挠对国会程序进行制度改革。 这些改革是限制开支所必需的。


All of this economic legerdemain was magnified by television, print, and Internet journalists.	所有这些经济上的花招都被电视、报刊和因特网上的记者们所夸大。


Aside from a small number of good stories in the business press, it is difficult to argue that anyone who read or listened to English-language media coverage of the campaign could have learned anything interesting or relevant to the question of whose economic policy was likely to be better for America.	除了商业新闻界还有几篇值得一读的报道外，很难说谁看了或听了英文媒体对此次大选的报道后能了解到任何有趣的、或与谁的经济政策可能对美国更有利这样的问题有关的事情。


The economics profession bears part of the blame for this.	经济学的专业人士对此也应负部分责任。


Nobel Prize winners such as Edward Prescott have no business talking about the benefits of tax cuts without pointing out that a tax cut accompanied by spending increases is not a tax cut at all, but rather a tax shift onto the future - and a tax shift that raises risk and discourages accumulation.	爱德华·普雷斯科特这样的诺贝尔奖得主不应该在大谈减税好处的同时不指出伴随着增加开支的减税政策根本不是减税，而是将税收 转移 到未来——而且这种税收转移的政策还会带来风险，妨碍积累。


But much of the problem stems from an under-briefed, undereducated, and uncurious press corps.	但是，问题大部分还是源自一支消息不灵通、教育不充分、且不具备好奇心的新闻队伍。


Indeed, the tendency towards superficiality in coverage of economic issues may have led campaign managers to believe that the press will so distort their message that they dare not even try to set out what they regard as the true rationales for their economic policies.	事实上，对经济问题的报道日益肤浅的趋势说不定让竞选经理们认为新闻界会歪曲他们的意思，从而不敢哪怕是尝试着把他们认为是其经济政策真正的原因说出来。


At this point, I as a pundit am supposed to come up with my magic plan, my clever scheme for fixing things and putting the world to rights.	说到这里，作为批评者，我似乎应提出自己的美妙计划，自己的聪明构想，以便解决问题，纠正错误。


I don't have one.	但我没有。


But there is one glimmer of hope.	然而我们还是有一线希望的。


The past two generations have witnessed the rise of independent central banks whose monetary policy, largely insulated from partisan politics, aims for the maximum possible employment and purchasing power consistent with price stability.	过去的两代人见证了独立的中央银行的崛起。 它们的货币政策在很大程度上与宗派主义的政治绝缘，而是以就业和与物价稳定一致的购买力的最大化为目标。


Monetary policy in the industrial core has been far from perfect in this age of independent central banks, but it has been much better than what came before, representing a victory for technocracy.	独立的中央银行发展到现在这个阶段，产业核心的货币政策还远非完美，但却比以前好得多，从而代表了技术统治论的胜利。


The American political system, at least, appears incapable of setting out the central fiscal policy issues in ways that give voters a chance to make informed judgments and distinguish between candidates-even between candidates whose programs are serious and those whose programs are mathematically impossible jokes.	看起来美国的政治制度至少不能公开列出核心的财政问题，以便选民们有机会做出明智的判断，区分候选人——甚至是区分提出严肃计划的候选人和其计划只是数学上不可完成的笑话的候选人。


It may well be time for another technocratic push: a Fiscal Stabilization Board that would take its place beside the Federal Reserve Board.	现在是推行另一个技术统治论行动的时候了：建立一个与联邦储备委员会并列的财政稳定委员会。


Just as the Federal Reserve exists to ensure that monetary policy is not inconsistent with price stability, the Fiscal Stabilization Board would guarantee that spending authority remains in line with the legislated level of taxes.	就像联邦储备委员会的存在是为了确保货币政策不偏离物价稳定一样，财政稳定委员会可以保证政府部门的开支符合法律规定的税收水平。


Let the debate begin.	让辩论开始吧。


The Saudi Spring?	沙特之春？


LONDON – In the early 1970’s, Saudi Arabia’s King Faisal reportedly confided to senior members of the royal family his fear that, just as in a single generation the country had moved from “riding camels to riding Cadillacs….the next generation could be riding camels again.”	伦敦—据说在20世纪70年代初，沙特阿拉伯的费萨尔国王向资深皇室成员透露，他担心这个国家只用了一代人就“从驼背上的民族变成了卡迪拉克里的民族……再过一代说不定又变回驼背上的民族。


His warning seems more apt than ever.	”如今，他的警告前所未有地接近发生。


Saudi Arabia, long one of the Arab world’s most rigid societies, now finds itself in a state of flux.	长期以来，沙特阿拉伯一直是阿拉伯世界最死板的社会，如今，它已身处大变局。


Its relations with the West – and with the United States in particular – have frayed in the turmoil unleashed in the Middle East and North Africa by the Arab Spring.	它与西方的关系——特别是与美国的关系——因为阿拉伯之春所引发的中东和北美动荡而受损。


Meanwhile, a group of women provided the latest sign of domestic restiveness by defying the Kingdom’s prohibition against women drivers.	与此同时，一群妇女拒绝接受沙特王国对女性驾驶汽车的禁令，这是沙特顽固传统的最新写照。


While Saudi Arabia remains the largest Arab economy, the world’s leading producer and exporter of oil, and the guardian of Sunni Islam, its political influence has diminished significantly in recent years.	沙特阿拉伯仍是最大的阿拉伯经济体、世界领先的石油生产国和出口国、逊尼派伊斯兰教的捍卫者，但其政治影响力在近年来大幅衰落了。


From the early 1980’s to the mid-2000’s, Saudi Arabia was the coordinator of pan-Arab politics, with the palaces of Riyadh and Jeddah drawing political leaders from throughout the Arab world.	从20世纪80年代初到21世纪第一个十年中期，沙特阿拉伯一直是泛阿拉伯政坛的协调者，利雅得和吉大的宫殿吸引着整个阿拉伯世界的政治领袖。


But the reception rooms have since been noticeably empty.	但这些宫殿的接待室如今门可罗雀。


Qatar – with its seemingly inexhaustible wealth and a comprehensive foreign, investment, and media strategy – has replaced Saudi Arabia as the decisive arbiter in almost every Middle Eastern conflict.	卡塔尔以其深不见底的财富和全面的外交、投资和媒体战略取代了沙特阿拉伯成为几乎每一场中东冲突的决定性仲裁者。


The deterioration of Saudi Arabia’s political influence has contributed to a growing sense of national decline.	沙特阿拉伯政治影响力的减弱引起了日益严重的国家衰落感。


King Abdullah’s reform efforts – especially those aimed at curbing the power of the ultra-conservative Wahhabi-Salafi religious establishment – have lost steam, and the deaths of two crown princes have complicated the inter-generational transfer of power.	阿卜杜拉国王的改革措施——特别是那些旨在遏制极端保守的瓦哈比-沙拉菲派宗教势力的措施——已经失去了前进动力，而两位王储的去世让权力的代际传递蒙上了一层阴影。


While Saudi leaders have managed to buy middle-class support by allocating a significant proportion of oil revenues to targeted welfare and credit-support programs, widespread poverty and massive income inequality persist.	沙特领导人仍能够通过吧大量石油收入用于定向福利和信用支持项目来收买中产阶级的支持，但广泛的贫困和严重的不平等性一直存在。


Shia Muslims in the oil-rich Eastern Province have repeatedly defied the ban on anti-regime demonstrations.	据说富于石油的东方省的什叶派穆斯林奋起反抗反政权示威禁令。


And Saudi Arabia’s campaign against the Shia Houthis in Yemen has proved longer and costlier than expected.	沙特阿拉伯针对也门什叶派胡塞叛军（Houthis）的行动也比预料的耗时更长、花费更巨。


Against this background, Saudi leaders remain conspicuously wary of popular empowerment and disruption of the Arab order that they have dominated for the last three decades.	在这样的背景下，沙特阿拉伯领导人显然对过去三十年他们所支配的民权运动和阿拉伯秩序的破坏十分担心。


For Saudi Wahhabism, in which absolute power is granted to the royal family by religious mandate, innovative forms of political Islam that anchor legitimacy in genuine representation are a strategic threat.	对沙特瓦哈比主义（皇室家族根据宗教训令被授予绝对权力）来说，将合法性建立在真正的代表制之上的政治伊斯兰教的创新形式是一个战略威胁。


Over the last year, the Saudi family has been focusing on many of these challenges.	去年，沙特家族一直专注于这些挑战中的多个。


King Abdullah has made significant personnel changes within the defense, interior, foreign, and intelligence ministries, granting broad powers to two experienced princes – Bandar bin Sultan, who was Ambassador to the US for more than two decades, and Miteb bin Abdullah, the king’s son and long-time commander of the National Guard.	阿卜杜拉国王在防务、内政、外交和情报部门进行了重大人事调整，授予两名经验丰富的王子——担任驻美国大使二十多年的班达尔亲王（Bandar bin Sultan）和长期担任国民军司令官的王子穆特亲王（Miteb bin Abdullah）广泛的权力。


The government has also sought to attract foreign investment and promote economic diversification.	政府设法吸引外国投资、促进经济多元化。


And some factions of the Saudi family are reaching out – albeit cautiously – to civil-society actors, attempting to engage them in a dialogue about the country’s future.	沙特家族的一些支系正在接触——尽管十分谨慎——公民社会活动家，试图让他们参与关于沙特阿拉伯未来的对话。


Moreover, in order to combat Iran’s influence in the eastern Mediterranean, Saudi Arabia has increased support for its allies in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, and has effectively taken responsibility for financing, arming, and directing the Syrian opposition and rebel forces.	此外，为了对抗伊朗在东地中海的影响力，沙特阿拉伯增加了对伊拉克、约旦和黎巴嫩的支持，并在事实上承担了为叙利亚反对派和叛军提供资金、武器和指导的责任。


It has helped to curb the rise of political Islam across North Africa, including by backing the overthrow of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi.	沙特阿拉伯还通过支持推翻埃及总统穆尔西等方式帮助遏制政治伊斯兰教在北非的崛起。


And, through a combination of positive and negative incentives, it has checked the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen.	此外，沙特阿拉伯还通过积极和消极激励双管齐下解决了也门胡塞叛军的威胁。


But none of these policies addresses the fundamental challenge facing the Kingdom – namely, the gradual erosion of its wealth (indeed, Saudi Arabia is expected to become a net energy importer by 2030).	但这些政策都不能解决沙特王国所面临的根本性挑战——即其财富的日渐销蚀（事实上，到2030年，沙特阿拉伯预计将变成净能源进口国）。


Given many economic sectors’ lack of competitiveness and the inadequacy of the educational system, the Saudi population – 70% of which is under 35 years old – will experience skyrocketing unemployment in the coming years.	由于许多经济部门缺乏竞争力且教育体系不完善，沙特人口——其中70%不到35岁——将在今后几年经历爆发式失业潮。


Many Saudis sense a wasted opportunity; despite sitting atop one of history’s most liquid fortunes, the country has failed to become an advanced economy.	许多沙特人感到了机会的流失； 尽管坐拥历史上最大的液体财富，沙特阿拉伯并没有变成发达经济体。


And Saudi Arabia’s large middle class is likely to respond to diminishing prosperity by calling for a more representative political system.	沙特阿拉伯的庞大中产阶级对于衰落的前景的反应很可能是要求代议制政治制度。


The problem is that the obvious challenges facing Saudi Arabia require a level of cohesion in the upper echelons of government that remains elusive.	问题在于沙特阿拉伯显而易见面临的挑战需要一直高深莫测的政府组织高层具有相当水平的凝聚力。


As the journalist Christian Caryl put it, “to say that historical or economic conditions predispose a country to embark on a particular path does not mean that its politicians will necessarily decide to take it.”	正如记者卡约尔（Christian Caryl）所说：“说历史和经济条件让一国走上某条道路并不意味着该国政治家必须决定接受这一点。 ”


The continued absence of resolute action could easily drive Saudi Arabia toward irreversible decay.	如果依旧拿不出果断行动，沙特阿拉伯很容易陷入不可逆转的衰退。


In such a scenario, the economy would gradually weaken, hampering the royal family’s ability to continue buying middle-class support, while enabling rebel groups in the east and the south to erode the government’s authority.	在这样的情形下，经济将逐渐疲软，使皇室难以继续收买中产阶级支持，让东部和南部的反对派有能力打击政府的权威。


This could cause Wahhabi religious and political doctrine to lose ground among young people and fuel regime infighting.	这可能导致瓦哈比宗教和政治教条在年轻人中间失去市场，助长政权内斗。


Ultimately, Abdulaziz bin Saud’s unification of the Kingdom in the late 1920’s could even be reversed, making the last eight decades an anomaly in the Arabian Peninsula’s long history of fragmentation.	最终，阿卜杜勒国王（Abdulaziz bin Saud）20世纪20年代末统一沙特王国的大业可能毁于一旦，过去八十年将成为阿拉伯半岛长期分裂史的一段例外时期。


Such an outcome would effectively make Yemen and the rest of the Gulf states ungovernable, allowing the Sunni-Shia confrontation that is currently unfolding in the Levant to overwhelm the region.	这样的结果既有可能让也门和其他海湾国家变得不可治理，将目前正在勒旺（Levant）上演的逊尼派-什叶派冲突席卷整个地区。


But there is another possibility.	但还有一种可能性。


The new generation of Saudi leaders could spearhead a transition to a genuine constitutional monarchy, based on a transparent system of checks and balances.	新一代沙特领导人可能在透明的制衡制度的基础上带头实行真正的君主立宪转型。


A more representative governance model, together with strong economic incentives, could unleash the young population’s creativity and dynamism – and secure Saudi Arabia’s future in the process.	更具代议制性质的治理模式加上强大的经济激励可以释放年轻人的创造力和活力——并保证沙特阿拉伯在此过程中的未来。


That promise was captured in the recent film “Wadjda” – written, produced, and directed by Saudi women – which tells the story of a young girl from a middle-class family who challenges social conventions and pushes boundaries, as she attempts to fulfill her potential.	这一前景可以从最新影片《瓦嘉达》（Wadjda）中找到。 这部电影由沙特妇女编剧、制片和导演，讲述了一个中产阶级家庭的年轻女孩在实现自己潜能的过程中挑战社会传统、打破藩篱。


If she is not Saudi Arabia’s future, the country may not have a future at all.	如果她不是沙特阿拉伯的未来，那么这个国家将没有未来。


Targeting Non-Communicable Diseases	目标对准非传染性疾病


INDIANAPOLIS – Around the world, one of the major factors destroying lives and hampering economic growth is also one of the hardest to address.	印第安纳波利斯—放眼全球，有一个摧毁生命、束缚经济增长的重要因素同时也是最难克服的因素。


Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) – such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer – now account for two-thirds of all deaths worldwide.	如今，全世界死亡人数中有三分之二是非传染性疾病（NCD）——如心脏病、糖尿病和癌症等——引起的。


In addition to cutting lives short, NCDs exact a massive economic toll on their victims, their families, and their communities, sapping economic productivity and driving up medical costs.	除了减少寿命，NCD还给受害者、他们的家庭和他们的社区带来了沉重的经济负担，破坏了经济生产率，推高了医疗成本。


Over the next two decades, the total economic losses from NCDs could top $30 trillion.	在未来二十年，因NCD造成的总损失可能超过30万亿美元。


Addressing the complex challenge posed by NCDs will require a coordinated international effort.	克服NCD所带来的复杂挑战需要国际社会齐心协力。


Fortunately, there have been some important recent steps in that direction.	幸运的是，最近在这方面我们已经取得了一些重要进步。


In September, the United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, a set of 17 objectives that will guide the global development agenda for the next 15 years.	9月，联合国通过了可持续发展目标，这套目标包括了17个大目标（objectives），将指导未来15年的全球发展日程。


Alongside targets like eliminating poverty and measures to protect the environment is a commitment to reducing mortality caused by NCDs – the first time the UN’s official development agenda has taken direct aim at the problem.	除了消灭贫困、环保措施等小目标（targets），还有一个降低NCD致死率的承诺——联合国官方发展日程首次将矛头直接对准了这个问题。


This is a welcome milestone, but it is only the first of many on a long road.	这是一个值得欢迎的里成本，但只是漫漫长路的第一步。


The physical and economic burdens associated with NCDs fall the hardest where they are least easily borne: low- and middle-income countries, where 80% of NCD-related deaths occur.	与NCD相关的身体和经济负担最重的正是那些最容易受影响的国家：中低收入国家占了NCD相关死亡人数的80%。


Millions of people who have recently escaped poverty could be pushed back into it as a result.	数百万刚刚摆脱贫困的人可能因为NCD而返贫。


The attention and peer pressure generated by the SDGs can help drive progress.	可持续发展目标所带来的关注度和同行压力可能有助于推动进步。


But achieving the targets will require sustained focus, drawing on the resources and expertise of governments, international non-profit organizations, and, crucially, the private sector.	但实现这些小目标需要持续关注，借助政府、国际非营利组织以及（最关键的）私人部门的资源和专家。


My experience in the health sector has led me to conclude that two important factors will prove crucial in addressing the challenges posed by NCDs.	我在卫生界的经验让我觉得，两个重要因素是克服NCD带来的挑战的关键。


Progress will depend, first and foremost, on crafting effective local approaches that can be adapted, replicated, and scaled up.	进步首先取决于制定可调整、可复制、可升级的有效地方方针。


There are no one-size-fits-all solutions to problems like diabetes or heart disease.	对付糖尿病或心脏病等问题每有万灵丹。


But, given that NCDs afflict communities in all parts of the world, there is much common ground that need not be continually rediscovered.	但是，NCD影响着世界每一个角落的社区，因此我们有很多共同之处，不需要重复发现。


In 2013, for example, the Carlos Slim Foundation conducted a rigorous baseline assessment at eight primary-care clinics to understand the state of diabetes prevention and treatment.	比如，2013年，卡洛斯·斯利姆基金会（Carlos Slim Foundation）在八家基层诊所进行了严格的基线评估，以了解糖尿病预防和治疗的情况。


Based on the data gathered during the study, the Foundation piloted what is known as the CASALUD model to improve screening, treatment, and prevention using low-cost, user-friendly devices that can measure a range of relevant vital signs, including blood glucose levels.	基于该研究所收集的数据，卡洛斯·斯利姆基金会试验了被称为CASALUD模式的方针改进监测、治疗和预防水平。 CASALUD使用低成本的用户友好型设备，它们能够测量血糖水平等各种相关重要信号。


Participating clinics have been equipped with an online system to track drug inventories and avoid shortages.	参与诊所配备一套在线系统，跟踪药物存货情况，避免断药。


The approach was so effective that Mexico’s health office is using the CASALUD model as the basis for its national campaign to fight obesity, which can fuel diabetes and other NCDs – a great example of scaling up based on local experience.	这一方针十分有效，因此墨西哥卫生部门正在使用CASALUD模式作为其全国减肥行动（肥胖可能加剧糖尿病和其他NCD）的基准——这是在地方经验基础上扩大规模的典范。


The second key to success in the fight against NCDs is a commitment to tapping the resources of the private sector.	战胜NCD的第二个关键是致力于利用私人部门资源。


This includes not only the mobilization of private investment, but also the deployment of the vast amounts of technical, operational, and locally tailored expertise that private companies have gained in the course of doing business around the world.	这不但包括动员私人投资，也包括部署为数巨大的科技、经营和适合当地的专家，私营公司在全世界经商的过程中积累了大量这样的专家。


By forming partnerships with governments and international and local organizations, companies can help reduce the impact of devastating and costly diseases.	通过与政府和国际及地方组织结成合作关系，公司可以助减轻昂贵的灾难性疾病的影响一臂之力。


I know this because my company is involved in just such an effort: the Lilly NCD Partnership, in which we are cooperating with partners and the governments of India, Mexico, South Africa, and Brazil to tackle NCDs.	我之所以知道这一点，是因为我的公司也参与了这类努力：礼来NCD合作关系（Lilly NCD Partnership）。 在该项目中，我们与合作伙伴以及印度、墨西哥、南非和巴西政府合作对付NCD。


In Brazil, for example, we are working closely with key local organizations, including the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, to improve disease prevention – with a focus on helping mothers who were diagnosed with gestational diabetes while pregnant and are now at risk of developing type 2 diabetes.	比如，在巴西，我们与地方组织（如南里奥格兰德联邦大学）密切合作改进疾病预防情况——着重于帮助诊断出妊娠期糖尿病、现为2型糖尿病高危人群的母亲。


Programs like ours demonstrate what can be achieved through substantive, locally driven public-private partnerships around the world.	类似项目证明，通过在全世界实施有实质内容、以地方为基础的公私合作，可以取得了不起的成就。


Ensuring the success of the SDGs – including the reduction of mortality from NCDs – will require companies to move beyond traditional philanthropy and forge creative solutions to socioeconomic problems.	确保可持续发展目标——包括降低NCD致死率——的成功需要公司超越传统慈善范畴，找到创新性方案解决社会经济问题。


If we recognize that innovation stems from understanding local conditions and optimizing the vast resources of the private sector, we can ensure better health – and more rapid economic growth – far into the future.	如果我们认识到创新来自理解地方情况和优化私人部门的巨量资源，我们就能确保未来更好的健康情况——和更快的经济增长。


Targeting the Targeters	盯住那些制定目标的人


LONDON – Speaking in the happier economic times of 2005, Mervyn King – then, as now, Governor of the Bank of England – stressed the importance of entrenching public expectations of stable, low inflation.	发自伦敦——还在2005年好光景的时候，默文·金——时任以及现任英格兰银行行长——就发言强调维护公众对稳定以及低通胀预期的重要性。


He warned that, “if you let inflation expectations drift too far away from the target, you can end up in quite serious difficulty with a costly process to bring them back again.”	他警告说“如果你坐视通胀预期远超（通胀控制）目标，最后等着你的肯定是相当棘手的难题，还要经历一个耗资巨大的过程才能使其降回到原先的目标水平。


King must now be a worried man.	”估计如今的他正对此忧心不已了。


The Bank of England’s own commissioned quarterly surveys of public attitudes reveal that the credibility of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has now been impaired.	据英格兰银行自己主持的季度公众态度调查显示，其下属货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee, MPC）的信誉已经受到了损害。


For the last 15 months, the 2% inflation target, which is set by the government and is supposed to be enforced by the Bank of England, has been exceeded by more than a full percentage point.	政府制定了将通胀控制在2%的目标并交由央行执行，但在过去15个月内的实际通胀率却高出该目标达1个百分点有余。


For most of this period, the British public expected inflation in the coming year to be lower than in the previous year, thanks to the MPC’s strong track record on price stability.	在此期间的大多数时候，凭借着货币政策委员会过往在稳定物价方面的杰出表现，英国公众都预期来年的通胀将比当年要低。


That confidence has now dissipated: inflation expectations have caught up with the actual inflation rate of 4%.	但如今这种信心也已消失殆尽：人们的通胀预期已经跟4%的实际通胀率相当接近了。


There is no mystery about what is going on. The price-stability mandate has been trumped by concerns about growth.	目前正在发生的这一切其实不难看清：对增长的关注已经压倒了稳定物价的指令。


The fear is that tightening monetary policy to bear down on inflation could snuff out the faltering economic recovery.	人们担心用以平抑通胀的紧缩货币政策将扼杀步履蹒跚的经济复苏。


So not only has the MPC kept interest rates at a rock-bottom 0.5% since 2009, but policy has been loosened further by the Bank of England’s so-called “quantitative easing” – that is, expanding the monetary base by the stroke of a pen in the hope of reinvigorating domestic credit markets.	对此货币针策委员会不但从2009年开始将利率维持在0. 5%的极低点，相关政策也在英格兰银行所谓“量化宽松”政策下进一步放宽——换句话说，就是寄望于通过大笔一挥扩张基础货币的方式来重振国内信贷市场。


But the United Kingdom is now faced with the worst outcome: stagflation.	但英国目前却在面对着此举最恶劣的后果：滞胀。


The economy is incurring the inflationary costs of the Bank’s policy while missing out on the intended benefit of growth.	整个经济正承受着央行政策所带来的通胀成本，但同时又无法得到原本预计的增长实惠。


In the US, where the Federal Reserve is running a similarly loose monetary policy, the situation looks rosier – at least at first sight.	相反在美国，虽然美联储也在执行一个类似的宽松货币政策，情况却更加乐观。


The US economy is staging a more convincing recovery than the UK, and, in contrast to the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, the Fed is not explicitly mandated by Congress to achieve a specific inflation target.	相对于英国，美国经济的复苏更加可信，同时与英格兰银行和欧洲中央银行相比，美国国会也并未向美联储下达要求将通胀精确控制在某个点位的指令。


Thus, compared to the Bank of England, the all-important credibility of the monetary authority seems less vulnerable in the case of the Fed.	因此相对于英格兰银行，美联储在信誉方面（对于货币职能部门来说这是至关重要的）似乎没那么脆弱。


But, even in the US, policy-setting officials, such as Thomas Hoenig, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, express concern that inflation expectations may become unanchored, owing to the massive expansion of government debt and the Fed’s balance sheet since the financial crash in 2008.	但即便是在美国，类似堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席汤玛斯·赫尼希这样负责政策制定的官员也表达了对通胀预期可能失控的关注，他的理由则是自2008年金融危机以来政府负债的大规模扩张以及逐渐失衡的联邦资产负债表。


All the major Western central banks – including even the traditionally “hawkish” ECB – appear to be sticking their heads in the sand.	然而西方各大央行——甚至包括传统上一向“鹰派”的欧洲中央银行——似乎都像鸵鸟一样把头埋在了沙里。


But there is something they can do to ensure the benefits of inflation-targeting rules (credibility and well-anchored inflation expectations) while also supporting recovery: raise the stated target.	但其实他们也能一方面确保在通胀目标法则（信誉以及可控的通胀预期）中得益，另一方面又不致影响复苏：那就是提高通胀目标。


The case for doing so can best be shown by Britain, where the situation is particularly delicate.	实践这一点的最佳地点莫过于英国，因为该国的情况尤其微妙。


The UK authorities have decided to prioritize fiscal consolidation while running a loose monetary policy to contain risks to the recovery from higher taxes and lower government spending.	当局已经决定执行宽松货币政策来抑制更高税率和更低财政支出对复苏所带来的风险，但同时也把财政稳定列于首位。


The thinking is clear (if rarely spelled out clearly by politicians): whereas a loss of market confidence in the British state’s solvency would most likely trigger a depression, above-target inflation can be rectified at a relatively tolerable cost to living standards (though higher than it should have been).	这一思路其实相当明确（但没几个政治家能清楚阐述）：既然市场对英国国家偿还能力的忧虑很可能导致萧条，那么可以在一个相对可承受的生活标准成本范围内调整高于原目标的通胀率（虽然比理想值要高）以打消这些忧虑。


Granting, for the sake of argument, the force of this logic (and even its critics could hardly deny its coherence), it would be foolish to underestimate the risk of runaway inflation and underplay the economic and social harm it would cause.	作为论证的基础，考虑到这一逻辑（即便反对者也难以否定其论证严密性）的合理性，任何低估不受控通胀的风险并掩饰其可能造成的经济社会危害的行为都是愚蠢的。


To the extent that tolerance of above-target inflation also reflects a desire to erode the real value of public and private debts, market interest rates could soar, leaving indebted governments and households in even greater trouble.	在某种程度上对高于目标的通胀的容忍同样也反映出一种减少公共和私人债务实际价值的意图，为此市场利率将飙升，使得负��累累的政府和家庭更加泥足深陷。


Many commentators believe that governments’ huge budget constraints will force them to rely on inflation.	许多评论家认为政府的大规模预算缩减将迫使其转而依靠通胀。


If so, it is better to do it transparently, unlike the Bank of England.	如果是这样的话，政府最好光明正大地行事，而不是像英格兰银行那样暗中运作。


Simply put, in order to anchor inflation expectations effectively, inflation targets must be realistic.	简而言之，为了有效控制通胀预期，必须设定一个较为现实的通胀目标。


The current high-stakes conundrum faced by policymakers suggests that they should apply inflation-targeting principles more flexibly in the context of a major economic shock.	当前政策制定者所面对的堪称一个极端左右为难的困局，这意味着在重大经济危机的背景下他们应该更灵活地使用通胀目标原则。


This would involve raising the target to a level in line with the actual inflation rate observed in the post-crisis period – a level that the public would perceive as realistic, honest, and credible.	这将包括将目标提高到与后危机时代实际通胀率相符合的程度——也是一个公众感觉现实，诚实以及可信的程度。


Doing so would reduce the debt and tax burdens on future generations, while crucially limiting the risks of much higher inflation in the nearer term.	这样做可以在减轻下一代人所承担的债务和税务负担的同时极大地限制了短期内出现更高通胀的风险。


Moreover, a higher inflation target – and the restoration of credibility that it would imply – would enable central banks to return to a lower inflation target without creating a recession once debt levels had been reduced and aggregate demand had recovered.	此外，一个更高的通胀目标——以及其所带来的信誉回升——将使得中央银行可以在债务水平减少以及总需求恢复的情况下回归到一个相对较低的通胀控制目标，却不会导致再一次衰退。


Why Taxation Must Go Global	为何税收必须全球化


BERLIN – We are witnessing profound changes in the way that the world economy works.	柏林—我们正在经历世界经济运行方式的深刻变化。


As a result of the growing pace and intensity of globalization and digitization, more and more economic processes have an international dimension.	全球化和数字化节奏和强度日益增加，这使得越来越多的经济过程添上了国际维度。


As a consequence, an increasing number of businesses are adapting their structures to domestic and foreign legal systems and taxation laws.	结果，越来越多的企业开始采取调整结构以适应国内外法律制度和税收法。


Thanks to technical advances in the digital economy, companies can serve markets without having to be physically present in them.	拜数字经济的技术进步所赐，公司可以在不开设实体分支的情况下为市场提供服务。


At the same time, sources of income have become more mobile: There is an increasing focus on intangible assets and mobile investment income that can easily be “optimized” from a tax point of view and transferred abroad.	与此同时，收益源也变得日益流动：越来越多的注意力投向了无形资产和流动投资收益，它们可以轻易地根据税收需要“优化”和迁往国外。


Tax legislation has not kept pace with these developments.	税收立法没有跟上这些发展节奏。


Most of the tax-allocation principles that apply today date back to a time when doing business internationally primarily meant transporting goods across a border to a neighboring country.	今天所使用的大部分税收配置原理可以追溯到做国际生意基本等于将商品从国内运送到邻国的时期。


But rules that were devised for this in the 1920s and 1930s are no longer suitable for today’s international integration of economic processes and corporate structures.	但为20世纪二三十年代设计的规则已不再适合当今经济过程的国际一体化和公司结构。


They need to be adapted to the economic reality of digital services.	它们需要调整以适应数字服务的经济现实。


In the absence of workable rules, states are losing revenue that they urgently need in order to fulfill their responsibilities.	如果没有可行的规则，国家就会失去履行国家责任所急需的收入源。


At the same time, the issue of fair taxation is becoming more and more pressing, because the number of taxpayers who make an adequate contribution to financing public goods and services is decreasing.	与此同时，税收公平问题正变得日益紧迫，因为为公共商品和服务做出充分贡献纳税人数量正在下降。


The resulting tensions between national fiscal sovereignty and the borderless scope of today’s business activities can be resolved only through international dialogue and uniform global standards.	由此带来的国家财政主权与当今商业活动超国界性质之间的冲突只有通过国际对话和统一的全球标准才能解决。


Within the European Union, permitting groups of states to forge ahead with joint solutions to issues that can be addressed only multilaterally has worked well in the past.	在欧盟内部，允许国家群体为只有通过多边合作才能解决的问题积极寻找联合解决方案效果良好。


If such measures prove successful, other states follow.	如果这些措施证明是成功的，其他国家也应该跟进。


This approach can also serve as a global governance model for resolving international problems.	这一方法还可以作为解决国际问题的全球治理模式。


In today’s world, even large states cannot establish and enforce international frameworks on their own.	当今世界，即使是大国也无法单枪匹马建立和执行国际框架。 国家群体仍然可以。


Groups of countries still can.	这一点在金融市场监管问题上已经得到了证实；


This has been demonstrated in the context of financial-market regulation; it is starting to become clear with regard to the regulatory framework for the digital economy; and it is now being confirmed in the area of taxation.	在数字经济监管框架上正在开始得到证实； 在税收领域则正在得到证实。


The Seventh Meeting of the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes took place in Berlin this week, bringing together representatives from 122 countries and jurisdictions, as well as the EU.	本周，柏林举行了全球税收目的透明度和信息交流论坛第七次会议（Seventh Meeting of the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes），来自122个国家和司法辖区以及欧盟的代表齐聚一堂。


A joint agreement on the automatic exchange of information on financial accounts was signed on Wednesday.	周三签署了关于金融账户信息自动交换的联合协议。


The joint agreement was originally an initiative by Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Spain.	该联合协议最初由德国、法国、意大利、英国和西班牙发起。


Roughly 50 early-adopter countries and territories decided to take part, while other countries have indicated their willingness to join.	大约50个早期采用的国家和地区决定参与其中，其他国家也表示愿意加入。


The agreement is based on the Common Reporting Standard, which was developed by the OECD.	该协议基于经合组织所开发的共同报告标准（Common Reporting Standard，CRS）。


Under the CRS, tax authorities receive information from banks and other financial service providers and automatically share it with tax authorities in other countries.	根据CRS，税收当局从银行和其他金融服务提供商获得信息并自动与其他国家的税收当局共享。


In the future, virtually all of the information connected to a bank account will be reported to the tax authorities of the account holder’s country, including the account holder’s name, balance, interest and dividend income, and capital gains.	在未来，几乎所有与银行账户有关的信息都会报告账户持有人国家的税收当局，包括持有人姓名、余额、利息和红利收入、资本利得等。


Various measures are in place to ensure that banks can identify the beneficial owner and notify the relevant tax authorities accordingly.	该协议采取众多措施以确保银行能够识别受益所有人���如实通知相关税收当局。


The CRS thus expands the scope of global, cross-border cooperation among national tax authorities.	CRS因此也扩大了国家税收当局的全球跨境合作。


In this way, we can establish a regulatory framework for the age of globalization.	如此，我们可以为全球化时代建立监管框架。


The automatic exchange of information is a pragmatic and effective response to the perceived lack of global governance regarding international tax issues.	信息的自动交流是对国际税收问题的全球治理不足的务实且高效的反应。


By making taxation fairer, governments will have a positive impact on people’s acceptance of their tax regimes.	通过让税收更加公平，政府将积极影响人民对其税收机制的接受程度。


This great success in the fight against international tax evasion would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.	几年前，在与国际逃税的斗争大获全胜仍是不可想象的。


Now it is important to continue the efforts of the OECD and the G-20 in the area of corporate taxation.	如今，继续经合组织和二十国集团在公司税领域的努力十分重要。


We need to make sure that creative tax planning in the form of profit-shifting and artificial profit reduction is no longer a lucrative business model.	我们需要确保以利润转移和人为降低利润为形式的创新性税务规划不再是具有吸引力的商业模式。


A “beggar-thy-neighbor” taxation policy, by which one country pursues tax policies at the expense of others, is just as dangerous as beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policies based on competitive currency devaluation.	 “以邻为壑”税收政策——一国牺牲他国追求自身税收政策——与基于竞争性货币贬值的以邻为壑货币政策同样危险。


It leads to misallocations – and will ultimately reduce prosperity around the world.	它导致配置不当——并最终会影响全球繁荣。


That is why we need to agree on uniform international standards in order to achieve fair international tax competition.	正因如此，我们需要就统一的国际标准达成一致，以实现公平的国际税收竞争。


The progress achieved in Berlin on the automatic exchange of tax information shows that, by working together, we can realize this goal.	在柏林所取得的自动纳税信息交流方面的进展表明，我们可以齐心协力实现这一目标。


Sunlight on Tax Havens	阳光照在避税港


BERKELEY – Tax havens are by design secretive and opaque.	伯克利—避税港被有意设计成神秘又不透明。


The entire point of their existence is to conceal the wealth hidden within them.	它们存在的全部意义便是隐瞒藏匿其中的财富。


And a new book by Gabriel Zucman, The Hidden Wealth of Nations: The Scourge of Tax Havens, reveals, as never before, the extent of their role in the global economy.	加布里埃尔·租客满（Gabriel Zucman）的新书《隐匿的财富帝国：避税港之祸》（The Hidden Wealth of Nations: The Scourge of Tax Havens）以前所未有的尺度曝光了避税港在全球经济中的角色。


Zucman examines discrepancies in international accounts to provide the most precise and reliable figures we are likely to obtain about the amount of money stored in tax havens.	祖克曼考察了国际账户中的差额数字，得出了我们所能得到的最精确可靠的避税港屯金数字。


He estimates that 8% of the world’s financial wealth – some $7.6 trillion – is hidden in places like Switzerland, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Singapore, and Luxembourg.	祖克曼估算，全世界金融财富的8%——大约7. 6万亿美元——藏匿于瑞士、百慕大、开曼群岛、新加坡和卢森堡等地。


That is more wealth than is owned by the poorer half of the world’s 7.4 billion people.	这是一笔比全球74亿人中较贫穷的一半人口所拥有的总量还要大的财富。


This figure has important consequences, as it represents money that should be in the tax base.	这个数字具有重要后果，因为这些钱应该出现在税基中。


If rich countries in Europe and North American cannot effectively tax the rich, they have little chance of preserving social democracy and offsetting the surge in inequality that has recently afflicted their economies.	如果欧洲和北美的富裕国家无法有效对富人课税，它们就几乎不可能维持社会民主，阻止眼下正在折磨其经济的不平等性的剧增。


Similarly, emerging economies have little hope of putting in place progressive tax systems if they cannot find their plutocrats’ wealth.	类似地，新兴经济体如果不知道财阀的财富藏在哪里，就几乎不可能建立累进税收制度。


To be sure, Zucman’s relies on the unproven assumption that there are important data to be found in what is usually classified as “errors and omissions.”	诚然，祖克曼依靠着一个未证实的假设，即重要数据要从常常被归为“误差和省略项”的项目中寻找。


But there is good reason to believe his figures are in the ballpark.	但有很好的理由认为他的数据大致正确。


Switzerland’s central bank reports that foreigners hold $2.4 trillion in Swiss banks alone.	瑞士中央银行报告，外国人自瑞士银行的存款高达2.


And while Switzerland may be the world’s oldest tax haven, it is not the most advantageous place to park one’s money.	4万亿美元。 瑞士也许是全世界最老牌的避税港，但绝非屯金的最佳场所。


One reason why tax havens are difficult to eliminate is that not everyone in government necessarily views them in the same way.	避税港难以消除的一个原因是，政府对它们的看法未必一致。


Wherever corruption is endemic – say, Russia, China, and much of the Middle East – many officials may view tax havens not as a revenue problem, but as an attractive part of the job.	在腐败横行的国家——比如俄罗斯、中国和中东大部分国家——许多官员不把避税港视作财政收入的问题，而是视其为工作的吸引人之处。


Even in the United States, policies have all too often been deliberately designed to enable – rather than to discourage – tax avoidance via tax havens.	即使在美国，政策也经常有意设计成有利于——而非制止——通过避税港避税。


One former senior official in US President George W. Bush’s administration put it this way, “it is, ultimately, about freedom.”	美国前总统小布什政府的一位前高官说：“说到底，这事关自由。


The resulting lax enforcement accounts for a large portion of the one-third decline in the effective reach of the US corporate income tax since the late 1990s.	”由此导致的执法不力是20世纪90年代以来美国公司所得税有效征税率下降三分之一的重要原因。


When it comes to tax havens, it is fashionable to say that nothing can be done.	对于避税港问题，流行的说法是无可作为。


National sovereignty is deemed too important to be subordinated to international tax laws.	国家主权太重要，不容屈服于国际税法。


And the day’s plutocrats are seen as having sway over elected politicians and civil servants.	而如今的财阀也被视为能够控制当选政客和公务员。


More than a century ago, then-Governor Woodrow Wilson of New Jersey convinced the state legislature to get out of the corporate-tax-haven business.	一个多世纪前，时任新泽西州州长的伍德罗·威尔逊说服州立法机关取缔公司避税港。


As soon as it did, America’s corporations picked up their legal headquarters and moved next door to Delaware.	此法一出，美国公司纷纷将法律总部迁往相邻的特拉华州。


But what those who say that coordinated international policy is impossible don’t say is that coordinating international policy always looks impossible, until suddenly the conditions change and everything falls into place.	但那些说合作性国��政策不可行的人没有说的是，合作性国际政策看上去永远不可行，直到突然有一天条件改变了，所有东西都走上了正轨。


Tax havens can be eliminated; all that is required is to close the loopholes that allow legal tax avoidance and establish enforcement mechanisms that make illegal tax evasion no longer worth the risk.	避税港可以消除； 所需要的只是补上让合法避税得以实现的漏洞并建立让非法逃税不再值得冒险的执法机制。


The first step should be increased transparency.	第一步应该是增肌透明度。


As the saying goes, “sunlight is the best disinfectant.”	俗话说，“阳光是最好的消毒剂。


Zucman, for his part, favors a single global registry – a publicly accessible database detailing the ownership of financial instruments.	”祖克曼支持建立统一的全球注册制——建立一个公共可访问的数据库，详细披露金融工具的所有权状况。


The second step would be to shift the corporate tax base from profits reported to have been earned in a country to sales made and wages paid in that country.	第二步是将公司税基从来自某国的报告利润转变为在该国实现的销售额和支付的工资。


As Zucman points out, a corporation can move its legal headquarters and use mechanisms like transfer pricing to shift its tax burden, but moving its employees across national borders is more difficult, and it cannot move its customers.	祖克曼指出，公司可以迁移法律总部，利用转移定价等手段改变税负，但将雇员从一国转移到另一国困难得多，而客户则根本无法转移。


If we are ever to combat inequality effectively, truly progressive taxation will have to be a part of the policy mix.	如果我们想要有效制止不平等性，那么累进税制是政策组合中必不可少的成分。


But unless we eliminate tax havens now, we are likely to find that we lack the ability to implement it.	但除非我们现在就消除避税港，否则我们可能会发下按，我们没有能力实施累进税制。


Taxing the Israeli Occupation	从以色列头上征“占领税”


CAIRO – Arab intellectuals and policymakers have often accused Europe of using financial generosity to cover up its political impotence over the Arab-Israeli conflict.	发自开罗 —— 阿拉伯世界的知识分子和政策制定者经常指责欧洲，认为欧洲只能靠大洒金钱来掩盖其在阿拉伯 - 以色列冲突方面的政治软弱。


If Europe is to be taken seriously as a global player, they argue, it must also flex some muscle when it delivers the money.	他们认为如倘若欧洲真的想作为全球事务参与者被受到重视的话，就必须在送钱的同时展示一下自己的一身肌肉。


In Arab eyes, European officials implicitly plead guilty to these charges by pointing to Europe’s complex multilateral politics and the European Union’s bureaucratic nature.	在阿拉伯人眼中，欧洲的官员其实已经默认了这些指责，同时也把责任归罪于欧洲复杂的多边政治形态以及欧盟机构的官僚本质上。


Europe’s Arab interlocutors are unimpressed: they want Europe to stop talking like a Great Power and start acting like one.	而那些参与对欧会谈的阿拉伯人也早就心灰意冷：他们期望欧洲能成为一个行动上的强权，而不仅只是个语言上的巨人。


But it is precisely the EU’s desire to look more and more like a nation-state that has pushed its position on the Arab-Israeli conflict in the wrong direction.	但把欧洲在阿拉伯 - 以色列冲突中一步步往错误方向推的，恰恰就是欧盟试图逐渐表现得像一个单一国家的意愿。


Europe’s inability to play a political role in the Middle East peace process was wrongly diagnosed as resulting from a European bias against Israel.	欧洲在中东和平进程上的软弱常常被错误地解读成和以色列作对的后果。


Policy advisers argued that gaining Israel’s trust was necessary to win support for a European role in the peace process.	而那些政策顾问则认为获得以色列的信任就是欧洲在和平进程中赢得支持所必需的。


Almost nothing became too dear in this quest: technology transfers, upgraded relations, association agreements, and even, reportedly, the prospect of joining the EU.	但在这方面以色列似乎对什么都不太感兴趣：不管是技术转让，关系升级，合作协议，甚至是加入欧盟的前景。


European policy thus revolved around simultaneously seducing Israel and bribing the Palestinian Authority.	至此欧洲的政策就在引诱以色列和贿赂巴勒斯坦民族权力机构之间来回打转。


Financing Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank served both objectives at the same time, at a cost to European taxpayers of several billion euros.	资助以色列对加沙和约旦河西岸地区的占领则同时满足了上述两个目的，而代价就是欧洲纳税人口袋里掏出的数十亿欧元。


Yet this policy earned Europe neither recognition nor relevance.	但这一政策既没有为欧洲赢得承认，也没有换来亲密关系。


Palestinians continued to trivialize Europe’s contribution, and Israelis to loathe it for “financing Palestinian terror.”	巴勒斯坦人继续贬低欧洲的贡献，而以色列人则痛斥欧洲“资助巴勒斯坦恐怖活动”。


In the end, Europe paid a lot of money only to expose its own weakness.	到最后，欧洲白白花了一大笔钱，却把自己的弱点暴露无遗。


How much worse can things get before the EU abandons its counter-productive policy?	只是不知在欧洲最终放弃这项不中用的政策之前情况还将会恶化到何种地步。


The idea that Europe can seduce the occupier into giving it a role in ending the occupation seems wrong-headed.	欧洲这种通过引诱占领者来换取自身在最终结束占领的进程中取得一席之地的想法似乎是行不通的。


Israel does not want an even-handed mediator but an unconditional supporter.	须知以色列要得可不是一个公正的协调人，而是一个无条件的支持者。


This is partly why Israel prefers the United States as sole mediator, and it is also why Israel’s acceptance of a monopoly role for the US evaporates as soon as any American president starts developing views different from its own.	这也是以色列为什么倾向于将美国视作独家协调人的一部分原因，也是为什么在任何美国总统试图形成与以色列观点相左的想法时，以色列对美国垄断角色的承认当即灰飞烟灭的原因。


When this happens, America’s ability to project power makes all the difference.	在这样的情况下，美国施加权力的能力往往就能力挽狂澜。


In other words, no matter what blandishments are showered on Israel, when push comes to shove it is the ability to use power – not charm – that determines whether or not an outside power has a say in Arab-Israeli peacemaking.	换句话说，不管把什么诱惑摆在以色列面前，最终真正能推动这个国家的其实还是运用权力 —— 而非魅力 —— 的能力，而也正是这种能力才能决定一个外部力量究竟能否在阿以和平进程上发出自己的声音。


Europe ’s failure to play a role in resolving this conflict does not result from its supposed anti-Israeli views, but from the fact that the EU is not a state.	而欧洲无法在解决冲突方面扮演一个角色的原因并不在于其在人们心目中的反以色利观点，而是因为欧盟并不是一个国家。 国家并不需要别人赋予它角色；


States are not given roles; they acquire them by the power assets they can deploy.	因为在一个国家施展自己的权力资产时就自动得到了一个角色。


And Europe cannot deploy the type of power needed to tilt the balance in Arab-Israeli peacemaking.	而欧洲却无法施展那种足以影响阿以和平进程的权力。


But Europe can do other things.	但是欧洲也可以另辟蹊径。


To change the Israeli-Palestinian dynamic, external actors now need to influence the political calculus inside Israel and Palestine by lowering the political cost of peace and raising the cost of occupation .	为了改变以色列 - 巴勒斯坦之间的内在动力，外部势力如今需要影响的是以色列和巴勒斯坦两者内部的政治权衡，使得达成和平的费用降低，占领的成本增加。


Any meaningful Arab-Israeli peace depends on Israel’s return of Palestinian territories, with certain conditions, but no Israeli government will be willing or even able to do so unless the political calculus inside Israel changes.	任何有意义的阿以和平都必须构筑在以色列对巴勒斯坦领土的归还之上（在特定条件下），但除非以色列内部的政治权衡有所改变，否则任何一届以色列政府都不愿意甚至不能达成这一点。


Making withdrawal a tolerable political option (or making occupation a more costly one) is needed to trigger a meaningful peace process.	因此将撤退变成一个可以接受的政治选项（或者增大占领的政治成本）就成为了一个有实质意义的和平进程的必需之处。


Europe has already tried incentives for withdrawal, but that alone will not suffice; the cost of occupation must also be raised.	欧洲曾经尝试过激励以色列撤退，但单单这一点是不够的； 还必须增加以色列的占领成本。


In plain English, an “occupation tax” is needed.	简单来说就是需要引入一个“占领税”。


This would be different from applying sanctions, which would risk triggering a “ Masada Complex” that might push Israel to further extremes.	这个举措和实施制裁不同，因为制裁将有可能触发以色列的“马撒达复杂心理”并将这个国家推向极端。


Instead, an occupation tax would target the settlers’ economy and the violation of Palestinians’ human rights.	而一项��领税将集中作用在犹太定居者的经济状况以及对巴勒斯坦人的人权侵害上面。


Such a tax should start with turning the EU current exclusion of settlements’ products from preferential customs treatment into a full-scale ban on imports from settlements – and any transactions with them.	如果要执行这项税务，欧盟首先就要全面禁止进口来自犹太人定居点的产品 —— 以及一切相关交易，而不仅仅是像当前这样将定居点生产的产品排除在海关优惠待遇之外。


Companies and banks should be barred from doing business in or with settlements, especially with construction companies and their suppliers.	企业和银行应当被禁止在定居点区域内（或者和定居点）做生意，尤其是针对那些定居点建筑企业和他们的供应商。


Pressure should be exerted on Israel to end its financial assistance to settlements.	必须向以色列施加压力，令其停止对定居点的经济援助。


The occupation tax should also include action aimed at ending the virtual impunity enjoyed by the Israel Defense Force.	这项占领税也应当包括终止以色列国防军享有的豁免权。


IDF officials argue that some level of human rights violation is inevitable during occupation, and that the IDF’s record is not much worse than any other occupation army.	有国防军军官辩称在占领过程中发生的某些人权侵害是不可避免的，而且他们的人权纪录也不比其他占领军更差。


They are right; an occupation cannot be sustained without the systematic violation of human rights.	他们说得没错； 如果没有系统性的侵害人权行为，占领活动根本就无法维持。


That is precisely why these violations must be made costly: to signal to Israeli voters that the cost of occupation is bound to rise.	而这也恰恰是为什么必须加大这类侵害行为的成本的原因：这等于向以色列选民传递一个信号，那就是占领的费用一定会上升。


This can be done if Europe supports investigations of suspected war crimes and other violations of international humanitarian law committed by the IDF, as well as the establishment of international tribunals when such crimes occur.	而如果要实现这一点的话，欧洲就需要支持针对以色列国防军战争罪行以及其他形式违反国际人权法律的调查，并在确认上述罪行确实存在时成立国际法庭。


Only the US can bring Israelis and Palestinians to a new negotiation process, much less draft a blueprint for a political solution.	只有美国才能把以巴双方带到一个新的谈判进程中去，但距离一个草拟一个政治解决方案的蓝图依然遥远。


Europe and others can support such a process, but mainly by affecting the internal political calculus in Israel.	欧洲和其它方面可以支持这个进程，但主要是通过影响以色列的内部政治权衡来实现。


Such a role would better protect Europe’s broader interests in the Middle East, while allowing it to remain faithful to its values.	而这样一个角色既能保护欧洲在中东地区的更广泛利益，同时也允许其维持自身的价值观不变。


Taxing Tissue	税收问题


Today’s biomedical research is a collaborative research enterprise, requiring the contributions of patients, universities and industry.	今天的生物医药研究是人类共同的事业，需要患者、大学和企业的共同努力。


Today’s laws, however, allow only universities and industry, which supply basic knowledge and technology, to profit from their contributions; patients, who supply tissue, may not be compensated.	而今天的法律却只允许掌握基本知识和技术的大学和企业从中受益，而提供人体组织的患者也许根本得不到补偿。


Some consider this unfair, as it allows tissue donated by patients to be wholly appropriated by universities and industry.	有人认为这很不公平，因为如此一来，由病人捐献的组织标本会无偿被大学和企业所占用。


Others consider this wise, as compensating individual tissue donors could block scientific progress and technological development.	但也有人认为这很合理，因为补偿个人组织捐献者可能会阻碍科学的进步和技术的发展。


Is there a way to redress the double standard in biomedical research that is both fair and wise?	有没有一种方法能在纠正生物医药研究双重标准的同时，还能够实现公平和合理的目标？


Ironically, the double standard has both a moral and an economic underpinning.	具有讽刺意味的是，双重标准拥有道德和经济的双重支撑。


European law solemnly declares that  the human body and its parts shall not give rise to financial gain , for reasons of human dignity.	欧洲法律庄严宣布： 不允许利用人体及其组织获取经济收益， 因为这关系到人类的尊严。


American law denies patients a property right in their tissue for reasons of economic policy.	由于经济政策方面的原因，美国法律也否认患者对自身组织的所有者权利。


Recognizing such a right would impose a duty on universities and industry to negotiate fair compensation with every donor of all tissue used in their research.	原因之一是如果这种权利得到承认，那么大学和企业将不得不与每位组织捐献者商谈合理的补偿方案。


Moreover, compared with the contributions of universities and industry to the end product, the importance of tissue contributed by patients is minimal.	此外，与大学和企业对最终产品的贡献相比，病人捐献组织的重要性可以忽略不计。


Finally, why should tissue donors be entitled to compensation, as they or their progeny may benefit in the long run from the technological advances to which they contribute?	还有最后一个理由，那就是从长远来看，组织捐献者或其后裔可以从他们为之做出贡献的技术进步中获得好处，既然如此，有什么必要给予他们经济上的补偿？


Opponents of the double standard draw on principles of fairness, equity, and distributive justice.	双重标准的反对者认为这违反了公平、平等和公平分配的原则。


They view the double standard as a possible source of public distrust in the biomedical research enterprise.	在他们看来，双重标准可能导致公众对生物医药研究事业失去信任。


In fact, patients’ contributions to that enterprise are no longer minimal, as they supply university and industry with crucial compilations of tissue and associated medical data.	事实上，患者对这项事业的贡献绝不能忽略不计，因为他们为大学和企业提供了至关重要的组织标本和相关的医学数据。


Consequently, they have increasingly abandoned altruistic participation and are demanding compensation for their tissue.	因此，这种纯粹利他性质的贡献越来越让患者感到反感，他们要求为自己所捐献的组织得到补偿。


However, given current European and American law, these claims require a novel legal underpinning in order to be valid and enforceable.	但由于欧洲和美国的现行法律，这样的要求需要有新的法律支撑才能得到认可，并在实际生活中贯彻执行。


Various models have been proposed.	人们为此提出了几种不同的模式。


Charitable trust model .	慈善信托模式。


Donors would transfer their tissue to a charitable trust, and would collectively appoint a trustee, who would have legal fiduciary duties to use the tissue for the benefit of the public.	捐赠者将组织移交给慈善信托机构，并集体指定托管人，由其承担将组织标本用于公益目的的法律责任。


The trust agreement could allow the donor group to participate in the governance of the trust and thus have a say in the distribution of any benefits.	信托协议可以规定捐赠团体有权参与对信托机构的管理，并在如何分配收益方面拥有发言权。


But, while the model is  fair  in a number of ways, it implies that parts of the human body can give rise to financial gain.	但尽管这种模式在很多方面体现了 公平 的原则，它同时也承认了人体的某些部分可以带来经济收益。


Moreover, the model is  unwise to the extent that tissue donors could block the development of knowledge and applications.	不仅如此，因为组织标本捐献者有可能阻碍知识和应用的发展，因此这种模式显得 不那么明智。


And, by definition, it would work only if the trust is funded on a public basis.	而且从定义上看，只有由公众出资的信托机构才有可能获得成功。


Contract model. Tissue can be removed only with donors’ prior consent.	合同模式。  只有事先得到捐献者的许可才能切除组织。


Thus, prior to giving their consent, tissue donors can negotiate acceptable compensation.	因此，在同意之前，捐献者可以谈判获得合理的补偿。


Patients suffering from rare disorders have adopted this approach.	患上罕见疾病的患者已经采用了这种方法。


Prior to supplying their tissue to universities and industry, these patients negotiate ownership rights in any technology that arises from the research.	在将组织标本提供给大学和企业之前，这些患者通过谈判取得研究成果的部分所有权。


This model seems  fair  enough: if people can exploit such natural endowments as their beauty or scientific genius, then why not their tissue?	这种模式似乎 足够公平： 如果人们可以利用美貌或科学才华这样的自然禀赋获得收益，为什么人体组织就不可以？


It may be  unwise , though, because the knowledge and applications over which they retain control may have implications for other diseases.	但因为患者所控制的知识和技术应用可能对其他疾病的研究有意义，这种方法 也可能带来问题。


In such circumstances, should they further their own interests by continuing to exploiting their control, or should they further the interests of those other patients by  donating their tissue?	在这样的情况下，患者是应该继续行使控制权来获得收益，还是应该 捐献 组织标本，以促进其他病人的利益？


Global public good model .	全球公益模式。


In this view, the human genome is a common heritage of humankind and a global public good whose benefits should be shared with all.	在持这种观点的人看来，人类基因库是全人类的共同财产和全球性的公益事业，收益理应由全人类共同分享。


Benefit-sharing may be  fair  in that it includes giving special assistance to research participants, such as access to medical care or to new treatments stemming from the research, but it may be  unfair in failing to define the recipients of such benefits.	分享收益在为研究的参与者提供特别援助的意义上是 公平 的，这些援助包括接受医疗救护，或使用研究带来的全新治疗方法，但从未能清楚界定受益者这个意义上，这种模式又显得 有失公平。


In addition, the model bears an arbitrary element, as the sharing of benefits is not subject to control by the donors of tissue, much less to democratic control, and may prove self-serving for universities and industry.	此外，这种模式还带有强制的味道，因为收益分享完全不受组织标本捐献者的控制，更不用说其他形式的民主控制了。 因此，这种模式可能最终成为大学和企业的一言堂。


The unfair and unwise elements of these models nonetheless suggest a solution that is both fair and wise: a tissue tax.	上述模式不公平、不明智的缺陷最终凸显出一种公平、明智的解决方法：那就是收取组织标本税。


Instead of allowing donors to claim individual compensation for their tissue, a tax would be imposed every time a tissue-based application actually yields a profit.	每当人体组织应用带来实际收益的时候，可以收取一定的税费，而不是允许个人捐献者要求补偿。


This would be  fair , as it would ensure collective compensation for the use of tissue in general, rather than for individual tissue donors, and it would be  wise in that it would not block scientific and technological progress.	这种方式 公平合理 ，因为它保证了对组织标本的使用以集体方式而非个人方式给予补偿； 这种方法也 十分明智， 因为它不会阻碍科学和技术向前发展。


While universities and industry may be wary of taxation, they might prefer a tissue tax over endless negotiations with countless tissue donors over the sharing of uncertain future benefits.	大学和企业可能对税收充满警惕，但他们却宁愿缴纳组织标本税，也不愿与数不清的组织捐献者没完没了地谈判无法确定的未来收益将如何分享。


Moreover, unlike direct compensation schemes, a tissue tax does not exert undue influence on individuals or groups to donate tissue.	此外，与直接补偿方案不同，组织标本税不会对捐献组织的个人和团体产生不恰当的影响。


And, instead of being arbitrary, a tissue tax would be subject to democratic control: no taxation without representation.	而且，组织标本税可以接受民主控制：没有代表群体就没有税收。


In brief, the introduction of a tissue tax would be both a  fair  and a  wise way to redress the double standard that currently governs the collaborative biomedical research enterprise.	简言之，引入组织标本税不失为纠正目前生物医药合作研究事业中双重标准的一个公平、明智的方法。


Teaching PIIGS to Fly	“欧猪五国”的金融流感怎么治？


NEW YORK – Greece’s fiscal problems are, as I have argued many times, but the tip of a global iceberg.	纽约 —— 希腊的财政困境只是冰山一角，我曾多次论证过。


For the next installment of the recent global financial crisis will be rising sovereign risk, especially in advanced economies that run massive budget deficits and accumulate large stocks of public debt as they socialize private financial losses in order to revive economic growth.	本轮全球金融危机的下一笔到期债务将是高企的主权风险，尤其是维持着巨额预算赤字和公债存量的发达经济体，它们在刺激经济复苏的同时，也把私营金融业的损失摊派到了全社会头上。


Indeed, history suggests that severe recession and socialization of private losses often lead to an unsustainable build-up of public debt.	说真的，从历史上看，严重衰退和私人部门损失社会化叠加到一起，常常导致政府债台高筑，走上一条财政不可持续之路。


Moreover, financial crises triggered by excessive debt and leverage in the private sector are followed after a few years by sovereign defaults and/or high inflation to wipe out the real value of public debts.	此外，由私人部门的过度借债和高杠杆引发的金融危机，往往过了几年招来主权违约和 / 或高通胀（以稀释公债真实价值）。


Greece is also the canary in the coal mine for the euro zone, where all the PIIGS economies (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) suffer from the twin problems of public-debt sustainability and external-debt sustainability.	希腊是欧元区的报警器，所谓的“欧猪五国”（ PIIGS—— 葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙）全都面临公债和外债可持续性的挑战。


Euro accession and bull-market “convergence trades” pushed bond yields in these countries toward the level of German bunds, with the ensuing credit boom supporting excessive consumption growth.	加入欧元区和牛市收敛交易（ convergence trade ，利用息差收敛趋势套利的交易 —— 译者）把这些国家的债券收益推高到德国债券的水平，从而催生了信贷繁荣，支持了这些国家的消费过度增长。


Most of these economies were suffering a loss of their export markets to low-wage Asia.	这些经济体的出口市场慢慢被低工资的亚洲经济体蚕食。


A decade of wage growth exceeding productivity gains led to real appreciation, loss of competitiveness, and large current-account deficits.	十年以来，工资上涨快于生产力增长，导致本币实际贬值、出口竞争力下降和大额的经常项目赤字。


In Spain and Ireland, a housing boom exacerbated external imbalances by reducing national saving, pumping up consumption, and boosting residential investment.	西班牙和爱尔兰的房地产泡沫降低了国民储蓄率，刺激了消费和房地产投资，致使对外收支平衡进一步恶化。


And the euro’s appreciation in recent years – driven in part by the European Central Bank’s excessively tight monetary policy – was the final nail in the competitiveness coffin.	欧洲中央银行过分宽松的货币政策一定程度上导致欧元近年来持续升值，成了棺材上最后一颗钉子，彻底葬送了这些经济体的出口竞争力。


Thus, restoring competitiveness, not just fiscal adjustment, is necessary to revive sustained growth.	因此，要恢复它们的竞争力，不仅需要财政调整，更是必须恢复可持续增长的能力。


There are only three ways to accomplish this.	有三种办法。


A decade of deflation would work, but it would be accompanied by economic stagnation, thus becoming – as in Argentina earlier this decade – politically unsustainable, leading to devaluation (exit from the euro) and default.   Accelerating structural reforms that increase productivity while keeping the growth of public and private wages in check is the right approach, but it is likewise politically difficult to implement.	第一种是为期十年的通胀疗法，这可能会刺激经济，但也可能导致经济滞涨，从而滑向类似阿根廷的境地，引发政治不稳定、本币贬值（退出欧元区）和国债违约。 加速经济结构改革，提高生产力，同时抑制公私部门的工资上涨，这条路本身是对头��，但政治上阻力很大。


Or a weaker euro could be had if the ECB were willing – quite unlikely – to ease monetary policy further to allow real depreciation.	第二种是继续执行宽松的货币政策，使欧元实际贬值，不过欧洲央行可能不太情愿这样做。


But a weaker euro would not eliminate the need for structural reforms; otherwise, the benefits would go mostly to countries like Germany that undertook painful reforms to restore competitiveness via a reduction in relative unit labor costs.	就算欧元贬值，也无法代替结构改革的作用：如果这些国家不改革，享受欧元贬值带来的大部分好处的将是德国等国，它们已经通过降低单位劳动成本等痛苦的改革措施恢复了出口竞争力。


A shadow or actual International Monetary Fund program would vastly enhance the credibility of a policy of fiscal retrenchment and structural reforms.	第三种是由国际货币基金组织（ IMF ）公开或变相地提供一笔贷款，这可大大提高财政瘦身和结构改革的公信力。


Under the former, the European Commission would impose fiscal and structural conditionality on Greece, while the EU and/or ECB would provide financing, which would be absolutely necessary, because announcing even the best conceived reform program would not be sufficient to restore lost policy credibility.	所谓变相贷款是指，欧盟委员会可向希腊提出财政和结构上的贷款附加条件，由欧盟和 / 或欧洲央行出资。 外来资金支持是绝对必要的，因为即便希腊能提出最好的改革方案，少了资金支持，它也无法恢复公众对政策的信心。


Markets will remain skeptical, especially if implementation leads to street demonstrations, riots, strikes, and parliamentary foot-dragging.	市场仍将持怀疑态度，尤其是当改革措施引发街头示威、暴动、罢工和议会掣肘等情形时。


Until credibility is re-established, the risk of a speculative attack on public debt – reflected in the current rise in credit default swap spreads – would linger, given the ongoing budget deficit and the need to roll over maturing debt.	鉴于希腊的预算赤字和到期债务规模庞大，因此除非希腊政府能重建其公信力，否则对其公债的投机式攻击不会作罢，当前信贷违约掉期息差的持续扩大表明此类攻击已经开始。


Since the European Union has no history of imposing conditionality, and ECB financing could be perceived as a form of bailout, a formal IMF program would be the better approach.	由于欧盟制定贷款附加条件，历史上尚无先例，而欧洲央行的资金支持也可以视为某种形式的政府救助，因此由 IMF 提供正式贷款救援可能是更好的选择。


The most successful programs undertaken in the presence of a risk of a fiscal and/or external debt financing crisis were those – as in Mexico, Turkey, and Brazil – where a large amount of liquidity/financing support by the IMF beefed up an increasingly credible commitment to adjustment and reform.	在财务和 / 或外债融资危机当头的情况下，最成功的贷款救援案例都是 IMF 的杰作，比如当年的墨西哥、土耳其和巴西，就是在 IMF 巨额流动性 / 融资支持下，成功地建立了调整与改革承诺的公信力。


Loan guarantees from Germany and/or the EU are less desirable than an IMF program, as it is very hard to design and credibly implement conditionality in such guarantees.	德国和欧盟也可以提供贷款承诺，但是这不如 IMF 贷款来得好，因为此类承诺难以附加一些贷款条件，就算附加了也难以执行。


IMF support, on the other hand, is paid out in tranches and is conditional on achieving various policy targets over time.	IMF 的支持则是分批发放的，而且总是附加一些需要长期执行的政策目标作为贷款条件。


The Greek authorities and the EU had until recently denied the need for financing, owing to concern that it would signal weakness and create a stigma.	迄今为止，希腊当局和欧盟一直说不需要融资，它们是怕对外示弱并引起反感。


That was a grave mistake.	这真是大错特错。


Fiscal adjustment and structural reform without financing is more fragile and liable to fail without a war chest of liquidity to prevent a run on public debt while the appropriate policies are implemented and gradually gain credibility.	没有资金保证的财政调整和经济结构改革是脆弱的，一旦有关政策进入实施阶段并且逐步获得公信力，就会出现一波公债抛售潮，此时若手里没有充裕的流动资金，那改革还是会功败垂成。


At the same time, if Greece does not fully adjust its policies to restore fiscal sustainability and competitiveness, a partial bailout by the EU and the ECB will still be likely in order to avoid the risk of contagion to the rest of the euro zone and the consequent threat to the monetary union’s survival.	与此同时，如果希腊的政策调整不够充分，不足以恢复可持续的财政收支和出口竞争力，那么欧盟和欧洲央行可能还得提供部分的救助，以避免危机传染到其他欧元区经济体，最终威胁该货币联盟自身的安危。


A default by Greece, after all, could have the same global systemic effects as the collapse of Lehman Brothers did in 2008.	毕竟，如果希腊发生公债违约，其对全球金融体系的破坏力将不亚于 2008 年雷曼兄弟倒闭的影响。


Sovereign spreads are already pricing the risk of a domino effect from Greece to Spain, Portugal, and other euro-zone members.	主权息差这一风险定价机制已经在预示危机从希腊向西班牙、葡萄牙乃至其他欧元区国家传导的多米诺骨牌效应。


The EU and the ECB are worried about the moral hazard of any “bailout.”	欧盟和欧洲央行对任何“救助”所可能带来的道德风险忧心忡忡。


But that is precisely why a credible IMF program that ties financial support to the progressive achievement of fiscal and structural reform goals is the right way to teach Greece and the other PIIGS how to fly.	正因如此，唯独具有公信力的 IMF 贷款才能支持财政和经济结构的渐进改革。 这是治疗希腊和“欧猪五国”金融流感的对症良方。


Tea Time in America	美国的“茶时代”


NEW YORK – Ever since the first “Tea Party” convention was held last month in Nashville, Tennessee, with Sarah Palin as one of the keynote speakers, America’s political and media establishments have been reacting with a combination of apprehension and disdain.	发自纽约 —— 自上月 “ 茶党 ” 在美国田纳西州首府纳什维尔召开了首次党会，且由莎拉·佩林担任大会主要发言人以来，美国的政治和传媒机构就一直对他们既担忧，又藐视。


The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has called the Tea Party adherents Nazis, while the mainstream media tend to portray them as ignorant and provincial, a passive rabble with raw emotion but little analytical skill, stirred up and manipulated by demagogues to advance their own agendas.	美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西把茶党的追随者看作纳粹主义者，而主流媒体则倾向于把他们描述成一群无知迂腐，空有满腔热情却欠缺分析能力的乌合之众，被那些存心蛊惑民心的政客所煽动和操纵着，沦为实现政客个人目标的打手和炮灰。


To be sure, the Tea Party’s brand of aggrieved populism – and its composition of mostly white, angry, middle-class voters – has deep roots in the United States, flaring up during times of change.	诚然，茶党那种满嘴牢骚的民粹主义政治面目 —— 以及其主要来自愤怒的白人中产阶级的拥护者 —— 在美国有着悠久的历史，且每逢变革之时就兴盛不已。


But observers who have drawn comparisons to the Know-Nothings, the racist, paranoid, anti-Catholic, and anti-immigrant party that surged in the 1850’s, are reading the movement far too superficially.	但那些将茶党与在 19 世纪 50 年涌现的美国“无知运动”（ Know-Nothings ， 一个崇尚种族主义，偏执，反天主教反移民的政党）相提并论的观察家对当前这场运动的理解可就太肤浅了。


Indeed, those who deride and dismiss this movement do so at their peril.	事实上 ，那些嘲笑和驳斥这场运动的人可是要自食其果的。


While some Tea Partiers may be racist or focused on eccentric themes – such as the validity of Barack Obama’s birth certificate – far more of them, those who were part of the original grass-roots effort, are focused on issues that have merit.	尽管部分茶党党员可能是种族主义者，或执着于一些古怪的问题 —— 诸如巴拉克奥巴马的出生证是否有效 —— 但他们中绝大多数都是些心怀底层民众信念的人，而且所关注的问题也都是有价值的。


If you actually listen to them, instead of just reading accounts transmitted through the distorting mirror of the mainstream media, you hear grievances that are profound, as well as some proposals that are actually ahead of their time.	倘若你能用心聆听，而非仅仅从主流媒体的哈哈镜中来了解他们，你会听到一些有着深邃思想的牢骚，还有超越了时代的方案。


For example, Tea Party activists, using a group called End the Fed, were among the first to focus critical attention on the unelected and unaccountable US Federal Reserve Board.	比如说，通过一个名为“终结美联储”的组织，茶党分子是第一批密切关注非选举产生且不负责任的美国联邦储备委员会的人。


Now legislation is being put forward to establish greater transparency at the Fed – surely a laudable outcome.	如今立法机构已经在努力推动建立一个更为透明的美联储 —— 这显然是一个值得称颂的结果。


While those attracted to the Tea Party movement are a diverse group, some common themes emerge.	而 虽然那些依附于茶党运动的群体各不相同，但仍然有某些共同的主题逐渐显现出来。


They see a struggle for the soul of the Tea Party between true libertarians, who are worried about individual liberties, and traditional conservatives.	这些组织都看到了一种为追寻茶党真正本质而生的，游离于那些为个人自由感到忧虑的彻底自由主义者和传统保守主义者之间的夹缝中的挣扎。


Many who spoke to me directly in my Facebook community believe that Congress is utterly broken and regard faith in either of America’s major parties as naïve.	许多在我的 Facebook 社区上留言的人都认为国会已经彻底崩溃了，而对美国两大党的信仰的都是很傻很天真。


They view the Democrats and the Republicans alike as obstacles to change, drowning out the voices of the people as they kowtow to special interests.	他们把民主党和共和党看成是一丘之貉，认为它们都是美国变革进程的绊脚石，认为两者都屈服于某一特殊利益而罔顾人民的声音。


They are concerned about concentrated Federal control, spiraling debt, and the loss of individual rights.	他们对联邦政府控制权的高度集中，债务膨胀以及个人权利的流失都感到无比忧虑。


Are they really wrong?	那么这些人的看法真的错了吗？


After all, the movement took shape following the US government’s massive – and bipartisan – bailout of Wall Street banks.	毕竟这场运动是紧随美国政府对华尔街采取大规模的（且是两大党联手推行的）拯救方案而生的。


And, at a time when the Chinese government, America’s main creditor, has begun sending clear signals about its preferences for US domestic policy – even as it ignores American criticism of its human rights record – are the Tea Partiers merely being paranoid?	而当中国政府（也是美国政府的最大债权人）开始明显试图影响美国国内政策时 —— 它甚至忽视了美国对其人权纪录的批判） —— 还能说那些茶党的成员只是患了妄想症吗？


As little as I like Sarah Palin, the fact is that entrenched lobbying and other special interests mean that a “changing of the guard” in Washington is too often only a change in branding.	虽然我不怎么喜欢莎拉·佩林，但不可否认的是，历史悠久、根深蒂固的游说和其他特殊利益的存在使得华盛顿特区 “ 守门人的变更 ” （总统更替）通常都只是换换牌子而已。


As Barack Obama submits to the pressures of a US Department of Defense in which private contractors comprise 65% of the staffing budget, proposes preventive detention of Guantánamo detainees, and perpetuates the status quo in myriad other ways, her question – “So how’s that whole hopey-changey thing workin’ out for ya?” – is not the wrong question.	而随着巴拉克·奥巴马屈服于美国国防部的压力（私人承包商占了这一部门人员经费预算的65%），提出要对关塔那摩监狱的囚犯进行预防性拘留，并想方设法来永久维持现状的时候，可想而知，莎拉·佩林的问题（“一整套所谓的希望啊变革啊将咋在你身上实现？ ”）可没提错。


Indeed, for nearly a decade, concentration of executive power has threatened America’s system of checks and balances and given the Federal government the authority to spy on citizens, withhold information, and aggressively arrest and even Taser protesters – or to hire private contractors to do so.	事实上，在将近10年的时间里，行政权力的集中已经威胁到了美国政治制衡系统的运作，并使得联邦政府获得了监控市民、隐瞒信息、肆意逮捕，甚至用新式电磁脉冲枪击瘫示威者（或雇佣私人承包商这样做��的权力。


In these circumstances, the Tea Party activists’ focus on supporting states’ autonomy – and even on property rights and the right to bear arms – can seem like a prescient effort to constrain overweening corporate and military power in national government.	在这种情况下，茶党分子把注意力集中在州的自治权 —— 甚至财产权和拥有武器的权利 —— 是一种具有先见之明的，在联邦政府内部遏制傲慢的大企业和军队影响的举措。


That is why the elites in general are so quick to ridicule this movement. A movement that is genuinely populist in origin poses a threat to their own position in the power structure.	这也是为什么大部分精英会如此迫不及待地嘲讽这场运动的原因，因为一场真正起源于民粹主义的运动极大地威胁了这些精英在权力架构中的地位。


For once, a grassroots movement has arisen that is composed of people – some with Ivy League degrees, but many without – who are taking seriously the Internet-age promise that you don’t have to yield leadership to an established class of politicians and pundits.	一旦爆发了一场草根运动，而且这场运动由一群互联网时代的人们组成（有些拥有常青藤联盟的名校学历，但许多都是没有的），那么这将意味着你无需屈服于一个政治家和学术权威阶层的领导之下。


This is also why the Republicans are seeking to capture the Tea Party movement’s energy for partisan purposes, overrunning it with well-paid operatives, particularly from former Representative Dick Armey’s fundraising and advocacy organization.	而这也是共和党为何正寻求攫取茶党运动的能量来实现其私利，并大洒金钱（特别是借助前众议院议员迪克·阿尔梅的筹款及宣传组织）来过度运作这些运动。


Moreover, Tea Party gatherings have increasingly become a platform for Republican candidates seeking the support of a highly mobilized electoral base.	而茶党的集会也已逐渐成为共和党候选人获取一股具有高度动员性的选民基础的平台。


I hope that the Republican establishment does not succeed in co-opting the Tea Party – and that the Democratic establishment does not, either.	就我个人来说，我不希望共和党组织成功吸收茶党，也不希望民主党兼并成功。


And I hope that the movement captures the imagination of progressives, who are equally disgusted with the corruption of the status quo, and who can agree on many thematic goals, even if their policy proposals might be different.	我只希望这场运动能够把握住进步的愿景，即便运动中各方彼此间的政策方案不尽相同，但却同样对当前腐朽的现状感到厌恶，并能够在许多目标主题上达成一致意见。


At its worst, any populist movement can descend to demagoguery.	在最坏的情况下，任何民粹主义的运动都可能会堕落成某种非理性的政治狂热。


But the Tea Party movement at its best (or in its origin) is constitutionalist.	但茶党在最好的情况下（或从其根源来讲）是立宪主义的。


That is an awakening – and long overdue – sentiment in America, and one that spans the political divide.	这是美国早该出现的一种觉醒情绪，一种跨越了政治分歧的情绪。


The Tea Party movement’s adherents are angry – and, in many respects, justifiably so – but most of them are not crazy.	虽然茶党运动的追随者十分愤怒 —— 这在许多方面是情有可原的 —— 但大部分还不至于丧心病狂。


That diagnosis better suits those who prefer to ignore them.	这一看法更适合那些倾向于对他们视而不见的人。


The Tech Literacy Imperative	培养技术素养势在必行


DAVOS – In many parts of the world, young children grow up surrounded by technology.	达沃斯——世界许多地方，孩子们的成长都被技术所包围。


At their fingertips – literally – lies a limitless amount of entertainment, gaming, learning, and social networking.	毫不夸张地讲，海量的娱乐、游戏、学习和社交网络都在他们的指尖触手可及。


Their world has always been connected.	他们的世界靠网络联系在一起。


They learn to scroll before they can walk.	他们首先学会滚动鼠标，之后才学会走路。


And yet, as confident as they may be using technology, too many children have no idea how it all works.	但尽管他们对自身使用技术的能力信心满满，但太多孩子根本不懂得技术原理。


Nor do they fully appreciate how it underpins their lives – or how it will shape their futures.	他们也并不真正了解技术怎样支撑他们的生活——以及技术如何塑造他们的未来。


I think of this as the tech literacy paradox.	我认为这是一种科技素养悖论。


Today’s children may be great consumers of technology, but rarely are they truly tech literate.	今天的孩子或许是完美的技术消费者，但却极少有人真正懂得技术知识。


They may look like savvy digital natives, but their knowledge is only screen-deep.	他们可能乍看上去像是懂行的技术原生代，但他们却很少了解屏幕后面的知识。


They are passive users, not active creators.	他们仅仅是被动的使用者，而不具备主动的创造能力。


And most of them have little real interest in finding out how the technology on which they depend actually functions.	他们中的绝大多数对了解自己如此依赖的技术实际如何运作鲜有兴趣。


This has important implications.	这一点有着非常重要的意义。


Economies are undergoing radical shifts in terms of how they produce, distribute, and consume goods and services.	经济生产、销售以及商品和服务的消费方式正在经历根本性的变革。


Every aspect of life and work is changing.	生活的方方面面都在变化。


Greater tech literacy will be essential to ensure that the human implications of the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution are positive.	确保正在进行的第四次工业革命对人类产生积极影响的关键是掌握更多科技知识。


If young people are to participate fully in our increasingly tech-enabled world, greater numbers of them will have to be tech literate.	年轻人要想充分参与高科技元素日益发达的世界，就必须有更多人掌握科技知识。


If they are to be empowered citizens, not just beguiled consumers, they will need to understand how technology affects their lives and prospects.	要想成为有能力的公民而非懵懵懂懂的消费者，他们需要了解技术如何影响他们的生活和前途。


Not only will there be more tech jobs in the future; increasingly, more jobs will have a tech dimension to them, especially as scientific advances play a major role in solving some of society’s biggest challenges – climate change, health care, poverty, and inequality.	未来不仅技术型工作将会越来越多； 而且因为技术进步在解决气候变化、医疗卫生、贫困和不平等社会重大挑战中所起到的重要作用，越来越多的就业岗位将涉及技术层面的问题。


That is why BT has made a long-term commitment to use our skills and capabilities to help build a culture of tech literacy.	因此英国电信的长期目标是利用我们的技术和能力去协助科技素养文化的建立。


We want young people to know that they will be the creators and builders of our future – in every sense.	我们想让年轻人知道无论从哪种意义上，人类未来的创造者和建设者都是他们自己。


We want them to get excited about looking beyond the screen, to make and do stuff.	我们希望他们对屏幕以外的知识产生强烈的兴趣，去制作和创造属于他们的东西。


That means learning to code, of course.	当然这意味着要学习编程。


But it also means becoming fluent in computational thinking and problem solving.	但同时也意味着习惯运用计算思维和问题解决方式。


And, perhaps most important, it means becoming an engaged tech citizen.	也许最重要的是，这意味着积极参与技术领域。


For example, all young people should understand who has access to their personal data, how it is being used, and why that matters.	比方说，所有年轻人都应该明白谁有权访问他们的个人数据、这些数据如何被利用、以及由此产生的意义。


Accomplishing this will not be easy.	完成这项任务并不容易。


It will take more than simply making sure that children have access to iPads.	除确保孩子会使用ipad以外还需要更多东西。


Any initiative to boost tech literacy must focus on three areas.	提高科技素养的计划必须集中在三个领域。


First, kids must be inspired to learn about the technology they use every day; they must “connect” with tech concepts and find them exciting.	首先，必须鼓励孩子们学习他们每天都在使用的技术知识； 他们必须与技术理念建立“联系”，并从中找到乐趣。


At BT, we are collaborating with tech entrepreneurs and education thinkers to develop fresh and creative ways to engage young people’s innate curiosity.	在英国电信，我们正和高科技企业家和教育思想家展开合作，寻找新的、创造性的方式来激发年轻人与生俱来的兴趣。


Second, teachers must be supported, as many do not feel confident to teach tech literacy.	其次，因为很多教师对技术素养教育信心不足，因此必须对他们予以支持。


We can help with that.	在这方面我们可以做很多事。


Already, we have engaged with thousands of teachers in the United Kingdom; in the last school year, we reached nearly 350,000 primary-school children, and we aim to reach five million by 2020.	我们已经与英国成千上万名教师展开了合作； 上个学年，我们为近350,000名小学儿童提供了技术教育，我们的目标是到2020年扩大到500万人。


We have also collaborated with education innovators at MIT to bring new coding tools into classrooms.	我们还与麻省理工学院的教育创新人士合作，在课堂上引入了新型编程工具。


Third, schools must be properly equipped.	第三，学校必须配备合格的装备。


Making sure students have access to the latest technology is a challenge even for advanced countries.	确保学生接触到最新技术即使对发达国家来讲也同样是个难题。


In the UK, we are working to ensure that our high-speed fiber broadband connects the hardest-to-reach schools.	在英国，我们竭力确保高速光纤宽带接入到哪怕最偏远的学校。


And we are using our expertise to help teaching professionals who are eager to make tech an integral part of schools’ everyday life.	我们正在利用自己所掌握的知识教授那些想让高科技成为学校���活有机组成部分的教学专业人士。


A successful tech literacy program requires a long-term, sustained commitment to all three pillars of this approach.	一个成功的科技扫盲计划需要为落实上述政策的三大支柱付出长期、持续的努力。


We expect it will take a school generation to realize the cultural shift we believe is necessary.	我们预计需要一代学人付出不懈努力人们才能认识到我们所说的文化改变实为必须。


Previous industrial revolutions unlocked social progress only when they were accompanied by changes in education – in particular, concerted efforts to boost literacy and numeracy.	只有当伴随教育改革——尤其是推动识字和运算能力众志成城的努力时之前的工业革命才成功推动了社会进步。


If we want everybody to benefit from the radical upheavals transforming the world’s economies, further changes in education will be needed.	如果想让改变世界经济的激烈动荡惠及到每个人，就必须进一步改变教育。


Among the most important of these will be those that build a strong culture of tech literacy.	建设注重科技素养的强势文化就是其中最为重要的步骤之一。


Technological Cooperation	技术合作


In early February, the United States National Academy of Engineering released a report on “Grand Challenges for Engineering in the 21st Century.”	二月上旬，美国国家工程学院发布了一份题为“二十一世纪工程事业的巨大挑战”的报告。


The goal is to focus attention on the potential of technology to help the world address poverty and environmental threats.	该报告的目的是把注意力集中到帮助世界解决贫困和环境威胁的技术潜力上面来。


The list includes potential breakthroughs such as low-cost solar power, safe disposal of CO2 from power plants, nuclear fusion, new educational technologies, and the control of environmental side effects from nitrogen fertilizers.	这一名单包含低成本太阳能、核电站二氧化碳的安全处理、核聚变、新的教育技术以及控制氮肥对环境造成的副作用等潜在的突破。


The report, like the Gates Foundation’s similar list of “Grand Challenges” in global health, highlights a new global priority: promoting advanced technologies for sustainable development.	这一报告就像盖茨基金会在全球医疗方面类似的“巨大挑战”名单一样突出了新的全球优先事项，也就是为可持续发展促进先进技术。


We are used to thinking about global cooperation in fields such as monetary policy, disease control, or nuclear weapons proliferation.	我们已经习惯于在货币政策、疾病控制或者核子武器扩散等领域方面思考全球合作。


We are less accustomed to thinking of global cooperation to promote new technologies, such as clean energy, a malaria vaccine, or drought-resistant crops to help poor African farmers.	我们并不是那么习惯于以促进清洁能源、霍乱疫苗或者帮助非洲贫困农民抵御干旱的作物等新技术来思考全球合作问题。


By and large, we regard new technologies as something to be developed by businesses for the marketplace, not as opportunities for global problem solving.	大体而言，我们把新技术看作是由企业为市场开发的东西，而不是解决全球性问题的机遇。


Yet, given the enormous global pressures that we face, including vastly unequal incomes and massive environmental damage, we must find new technological solutions to our problems.	但是，鉴于我们面临巨大的全球性压力、包括收入差异悬殊以及巨大的环境破坏，我们必需为我们的问题找到新的技术解决方案。


There is no way, for example, to continue expanding the global use of energy safely unless we drastically alter how we produce electricity, power automobiles, and heat and cool our buildings.	例如，除非我们大幅度改变我们生产电力、驱动汽车以及给我们的建筑物供热和降温的方式，否则就无法继续安全地扩大全球能源使用。


Current reliance on coal, natural gas, and petroleum, without regard for CO2 emissions, is now simply too dangerous, because it is leading to climate changes that will spread diseases, destroy crops, produce more droughts and floods, and perhaps dramatically raise sea levels, thereby inundating coastal regions.	目前不顾及二氧化碳排放而依赖于煤炭、天然气以及汽油十分危险，因为这种情况导致气候变化，造成疾病传播，破坏农作物，产生更多干旱和洪水，或许会大幅度提高海平面从而淹没沿海地区。


The National Academy of Engineering identified some possible answers.	美国国家工程院列举了某些可能的解决之径。


We can harness safe nuclear energy, lower the cost of solar power, or capture and safely store the CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels.	我们可以利用安全核能，降低太阳能成本或者回收并安全地储存燃烧碳燃料而形成的二氧化碳。


Yet the technologies are not yet ready, and we can’t simply wait for the market to deliver them, because they require complex changes in public policy to ensure that they are safe, reliable, and acceptable to the broad public.	但是这些技术还没有成形，而且我们不能单纯地等待市场来实现这些技术，因为它们要求公共政策上复杂的改变来确保它们安全可靠以及可以为大众所接受。


Moreover, there are no market incentives in place to induce private businesses to invest adequately in developing them.	而且，现在还没有市场激励机制来促使私有企业在开发这些技术上做出足够多的投资。


Consider carbon capture and sequestration.	让我们考虑一下二氧化碳回收和分离的问题。


The idea is that power plants and other large fossil fuel users should capture the CO2 and pump it into permanent underground storage sites, such as old oil fields.	这一观点就是，电厂和其他大型碳燃料用户应该回收二氧化碳并且把它输送到像老油田等永久性地下储存地点。


This will cost, say, $30 per ton of CO2 that is stored, so businesses will need an incentive to do it.	储存每吨二氧化碳上花费30美元，所以企业就需要有激励机制才会这样去做。


Moreover, public policies will have to promote the testing and improvement of this technology, especially when used at a large scale.	而且，公共政策就必须促进测试以及改进这一技术，特别是大规模使用的时候。


New kinds of power plants will have to be built to make carbon capture economical, new pipelines will have to be built to transport the CO2 to storage sites, and new monitoring systems will have to be designed to control leaks.	应当以回收二氧化碳经济可行的方式建造新型电厂，而建造新的管道将二氧化碳运送到储存地点，设计新的监控系统来控制泄漏。


Likewise, new regulations will be needed to ensure compliance with safety procedures, and to assure public support.	同样，需要新的管理规定来确保遵守安全手续并且确保公众支持。


All of this will take time, costly investments, and lots of collaboration between scientists and engineers in universities, government laboratories, and private businesses.	所有这些都将要花费时间、庞大的投资以及大学、政府实验室以及私有企业中的科学家和工程师的大量协作。


Moreover, this kind of technology will be useful only if it is widely used, notably in China and India.	而且，这种技术只有大量使用、特别是在中国和印度使用才有用处。


This raises another challenge of technological innovation: we will need to support the transfer of proven technologies to poorer countries.	这就提出了另一个技术更新的挑战，也就是我们需要支持被证明行之有效的技术转移到较为穷困国家。


If rich countries monopolize new technologies, the goal of worldwide use to solve worldwide problems will be defeated.	如果富国垄断新技术，那么，在世界范围内使用技术来解决全球性问题的目标就不会实现。


Thus, technological developments should involve a collaborative international effort from the start.	因此，技术开发应该从一开始就包括国际协作。


All of this will require a new global approach to problem solving.	所有这些都要求在解决问题上采取全球性的措施。


We will need to embrace global goals and then establish scientific, engineering, and political processes to support their achievement.	我们需要制定全球性目标，然后建立科学、工程学以及政治进程来支持实现这些目标。


We will need to give new budgetary incentives to promote demonstration projects, and to support technology transfer.	我们需要提供新的预算激励来促进展示项目并且支持技术转移。


And we will have to engage major companies in a new way, giving them ample incentives and market rewards for success, without allowing them to hold a monopoly on successful technologies that should be widely adopted.	而且我们应该以新的方式与各大公司接触，给它们足够成功的激励和市场回报，与此同时不让它们垄断本应广泛采用的成功技术。


I believe that this new kind of global public-private partnership on technology development will be a major objective of international policy making in the coming years.	我相信，这种在技术开发方面新型的全球公营和私营部门夥伴关系将会成为未来数��中国际决策中的一个主要目标。


Look for new global cooperative approaches to clean energy systems, medicines and vaccines, improved techniques for fish farming, drought-and-temperature resistant crop varieties, high-mileage automobiles, and low-cost irrigation techniques.	我们会寻找新的全球合作措施来开发清洁能源系统、药物和疫苗、改善渔业技术、抗旱和温度变化的作物变异体、低耗油的汽车以及低成本的灌溉技术。


Rich countries should fund these efforts heavily, and they should be carried out in collaboration with poor countries and the private sector.	富国应该大量资助这些项目，而且应该与穷国和私营部门合作。


Successful technological breakthroughs can provide stunning benefits for humanity.	成功的技术突破可以为人类带来意想不到的利益。


This will be an exciting time to be a scientist or engineer facing the challenges of sustainable development.	这对于面临可持续发展挑战的科学家或工程师而言将会是一个激动人心的时代。


The Age of Adaptation	适应的时代


GENEVA – The world needs to stop looking backward.	日内瓦—世界需要停止向后看。


Since the 2008 financial crisis, we have wasted far too much energy trying to return to the days of rapid economic expansion.	自2008年金融危机以来，我们浪费了太多能量用于试图回到经济快速扩展的昨天。


The flawed assumption that the post-crisis world's challenges were only temporary has underpinned policies that have yielded only lackluster recoveries, while failing to address key problems like high unemployment and rising inequality.	危机后的世界挑战只是暂时的，这一错误假设导致了只带来平庸复苏的政策，同时也没有解决高失业和不平等性加剧等关键问题。


The post-crisis era is over, and the “post-post-crisis world" is upon us.	后危机时代已经结束，“后后危机世界”正在向我们走来。


It is time to adopt a new framework of realistic solutions that promote shared prosperity within the global economy of today and tomorrow.	如今，我们应该采取新的务实方案框架，促进今天和未来全球经济的共同繁荣。


In this new era, economic growth will occur more slowly – but potentially more sustainably – than it did before the crisis.	在这个新时代中，经济增长将比危机前更加缓慢——但也有望更加可持续。


And technological change will be its driving force.	技术变化将成为这一转变的驱动力量。


Indeed, just as the Industrial Revolution transformed the productive potential of societies in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, a new wave of technological breakthroughs is reshaping economic and even social dynamics today.	事实上，正如工业革命改变了十九和二十世纪社会的生产潜力，新一轮技术突破也在改变今天的经济乃至社会动态。


The difference is that this revolution's impact will be even greater.	区别在于今天的革命影响更加深远。


One outstanding feature of this revolution is the scope and scale of its disruptiveness.	这场革命的一个卓著特征是其具有大范围和规模的破坏力。


The Industrial Revolution occurred relatively slowly, like long waves in the ocean; though it began in the 1780s, its impact was not really felt until the 1830s and 1840s.	工业革命的发生相对较为缓慢，就像海洋中的长波； 它始于18世纪80年代，但其影响直到19世纪三四十年代才被真正感到。


The current technological revolution, by contrast, hits economies like a tsunami, with little warning and inexorable force.	相反，当下的技术革命就像海啸一样冲击着经济，不可阻挡并且几乎毫无预警。


The pace of change has been accelerated by the interconnected nature of today's world.	变革的速度因为当今世界的互联性质而加速。


Technological progress is occurring within a complex and deeply integrated ecosystem, meaning that it simultaneously affects economic structures, governments, security arrangements, and people's daily lives.	技术进步在一个复杂而深度一体化的生态系统赵红发生，这意味着它同时影响着经济结构、政府、安全安排和人们的日常生活。


In order to prepare a country to reap the benefits of rapid, far-reaching change, policymakers must account for the entirety of the ecosystem in which it is taking place, ensuring that government, business, and society all adjust to every shift.	一国要想抓住快速深远的变化的果实，决策者就必须通盘考虑变化发生于其中的生态系统，确保政府、企业和社会都能根据每一个变化作出调整。


In other words, competing in the twenty-first century economy will require relentless adaptation.	换句话说，在二十一世纪的经济中竞争需要不断地适应。


Nothing is off limits.	没有东西是没有边界的。


Every practice and standard will have to be rethought.	所有行为和标准总有一天必须重新考察。


Every industry will be at risk of being turned on its head.	所有行业总有一天都会有掉头风险。


The car-sharing service Uber, for example, has not only changed how people get around; it also appears to be leading a retail revolution in which goods and services are “Uberized" – customers pay to use them, not own them.	比如，租车服务商Uber不但改变了人们的出行方式； 也在引领一场零售业革命，商品和服务可以“Uber化”——客户花钱使用而不拥有它们。


The manufacturing industry, meanwhile, will be similarly transformed by 3D printing technology.	与此同时，制造业也在类似地被3D打印技术改变。


Supply chains will be eliminated or reshaped – an expectation that the CEO of a major aluminum manufacturer recently described.	供应链将消失或改变——一家大型铝业制造商CEO最近描述了这一前景。


He knows that, in order to succeed, firms will have to anticipate and respond to such trends.	他明白，要想成功，企业必须预见这些趋势并做出反应。


Gone are the days of big fish eating small fish.	大鱼吃小鱼的日子一去不返了。


In the post-post-crisis world, fast fish will dominate – and slow fish will die.	在后后危机时代，快鱼将成为主宰，而慢鱼将死光。


But the current technological revolution is not just reshaping what we produce and how we produce it; it is fundamentally reshaping who we are – our habits, interests, and worldviews.	但当前的技术革命不但改变着我们生产什么、怎样生产； 它从根本上改变着我们是谁——我们的习惯、兴趣和世界观。


Consider the vast difference between the way young people and older generations interpret privacy in the Internet age.	年轻人和年长者在解读互联网时代的隐私方面的差异就是明证。


It is also extending our lifespans, with one in two babies born today in Switzerland expected to live more than 100 years.	它还延长了我们的生命——如今，瑞士出生的每两个婴儿中就有一个可以预期活到100岁以上。


On balance, the impact of technological progress will be positive.	综合而论，技术进步的影响是积极的。


But that does not negate the massive challenge it will pose.	但这并不能否认它所带来的巨大挑战。


For example, job automation will ultimately propel more people toward higher-paying, more productive employment that is better suited to the new era of “talentism," when human imagination and innovation, not capital or natural resources, drive economic growth.	比如，工作岗位自动化最终将驱使更多人走向更适应“人才主义”新时代的薪酬更高、生产率更高的岗位。 在这个新时代，人类想象力和创造力，而不是资本和自然资源，驱动着经济增长。


But, if workers fail to acquire the skills to fill these new positions, they will be left behind.	但是，如果工人不能获得适应这些新岗位的技能，他们就会被淘汰。


Government, more than any other sector, can shape the impact of technological change, ensuring that challenges are addressed and opportunities are seized.	政府比其他所有部门更有能力引导技术变革的影响，确保能够战胜挑战、抓住机会一。