Some of these “lefts” are in power; some, as in Mexico in its last, disputed presidential election, barely missed conquering it, but may still do so.	有些这样的“左派”正在执政； 有些，像墨西哥上届充满争议的总统选举那样，刚刚未能当选，但是将来仍有可能执政。


Over the past two years, it has become increasingly evident that the “modern” or “soft” left is, all in all, governing well.	在过去两年里，总的来说，“现代的”或“温和的”左派将国家治理得不错，这一点越来越明显了。


The other left has proved to be more extreme and erratic than many anticipated.	另一种左派已经变得比许多人预期的要更加极端和 不可琢磨。


The former feels no urge to “export” its “model,” whereas the latter has a strategy and the means to do so.	前者没有将其“模式”“出口”的动力，而后者有这样做的策略和途径。


The retrograde left today can realize Che Guevara’s old dream: not “one, two, many Vietnams,” but “one, two, many Venezuelas,” winning power by the ballot and then conserving and concentrating it through constitutional changes and the creation of armed militias and monolithic parties.	现在倒退的左派可以实现切·格瓦拉过去的梦想：不是“一个，两个，许多的越南人” ，而是“一个，两个，许多的委内瑞拉人” ，通过投票赢得权力，然后通过宪法变革和建立武装自卫队以及完全统一的政党来保存和集中权力。


It can finance all of this with the support of Venezuela’s state oil company, implementing social policies that are misguided over the long term but seductive in the short run, especially when carried out by Cuban doctors, teachers, and instructors.	它可以从委内瑞拉的国有石油公司的支持中来获得实现所有这些活动所需的资金，执行在长期内是误导的但是在短期内很诱人的社会政策，特别是当这些政策是由古巴医生、教师和教导人员执行的时候。


Herein lies a dilemma for the next US president: how to address the clear rift between the two lefts in a way that improves US-Latin American relations, fortifies the modern left, and weakens the retrograde left without resorting to the failed interventionist policies of the past.	对美国的下任总统来说，在这里有一个两难的问题：怎样以一种改善美国和拉丁美洲国家之间关系 ，加强现代左派，又不借助于过去失败的干涉主义政策来削弱倒退的左派的方式，来应对两种左派之间明显的区分。


The best, strictly Latin America-focused steps, are self-evident, if not easily achievable.	最好的严格专注于拉丁美洲的措施是不言自明的，即使它们不是很容易取得成功。


They require strengthening those governments of the modern left, or those of the center or center-right threatened by the old-fashioned left, and simultaneously making it clear to the latter that there is a price to be paid for violating the basic tenets of democracy, respect for human rights, and the rule of law.	这些措施需要壮大由现代左派执政的政府，或者那些受到旧式左派威胁的中间或中间偏右的政府，并同时让旧式左派明白，违反民主的基本原则，不尊重人权以及不遵守法制，是要付出代价的。


Turning its back in the face of such challenges is no longer a viable American option.	对美国来说，面对这样的挑战的时候不予理睬，不再是 一个可行的选择。


Aside from areas of particular concern (oil, arms, guerrillas, drugs), the US needs Latin America dearly nowadays because resistance to it is springing up everywhere, and with greater virulence than at any time since World War II’s end.	除了其特别关注的领域（石油，武器，游击队，毒品）以外，美国现在非常需要拉丁美洲，因为对其的抵制到处存在，并且这些抵制比自二战结束以来的任何时候都具有更大的恶意。


The next US president must reinvigorate a relationship that is ready to be substantially transformed for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt’s Good Neighbor Policy of seven decades ago.	下任美国总统必须复兴一种自70年前富兰克林·罗斯福的睦邻政策以来，首次准备进行充分变革的拉丁美洲关系。


A New Year of Global Conflict	全球冲突之年


DAVOS – In today’s world, identifying and managing hotspots is not simply a matter of pulling out a map, spotting the wildfires, and empowering diplomats to douse the flames.	达沃斯—在当今世界，要想识别和管理热点，光是画一张地图，标明出火点然后派全副武装的外交官去灭火是不够的。


To understand today’s major conflicts and confrontations, we must recognize important ways in which global political conditions enable them.	要理解当今世界的主要冲突和对抗，我们必须认清导致它们产生的全球政治环境。


Conflicts are much more likely to arise or persist when those with the means to prevent or end them cannot or will not do so.	冲突最有可能产生或持续的情况是有办法阻止或终结它们的人无法或不愿这样做。


Unfortunately, this will be borne out in 2013.	不幸的是，这将是2013年的一大特征。


In the United States, barring a foreign-policy crisis that directly threatens national security, President Barack Obama’s administration will focus most of its time, energy, and political capital on debt reduction and other domestic priorities.	在美国，除非发生直接威胁国家安全的外交政策危机，否则总统奥巴马的政府将把大部分时间、能量和政治资本集中在减少债务和其他国内事务上。


In Europe, officials will continue their struggle to restore confidence in the eurozone.	在欧洲，官员将继续为重塑欧元区信心而挣扎。


And, in China, though the demands of economic growth and job creation will force the country’s new leaders to develop new ties to other regions, they are far too preoccupied with the complexities of economic reform to assume unnecessary costs and risks outside Asia.	而在中国，尽管对经济增长和就业创造的需求将迫使新领导人发展与其他地区的信联系，但他们不会因经济改革的复杂性过大分去太多精力而在亚洲之外造成不必要的损失和风险。


That is why the world’s fires will burn longer and hotter this year.	这就是为何世界之火将在今年烧得更旺。


This does not mean that the world’s powers will not inflict damage of their own.	这并不意味着世界大国不会给自己造成麻烦。


Today, these governments are more likely to use drones and special forces to strike at their perceived enemies.	如今，大国政府更有可能使用无人机和特种部队对付它们眼中的敌人。


The world has grown used to US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen, but recent news reports suggest that China and Japan are also investing in unmanned aircraft – in part to enhance their leverage in disputes over islands in the East China Sea.	世界已经习惯了美国使用无人机对阿富汗、巴基斯坦和也门实施空袭，但最新报道显示，中国和日本也在投资无人机——部分是为了在东海岛争中占得先机。


By lowering the costs and risks of attack, these technological innovations make military action more likely.	这些技术创新降低了袭击的成本和风险，从而加大了军事行动的可能性。


Perhaps the lowest-cost way to undermine rivals and attack enemies is to launch attacks in cyberspace.	或许削弱对手、打击敌人成本最低的方式是网络战。


That is why so many deep-pocketed governments – and some that are not so rich – are investing heavily in the technology and skills needed to enhance this capability.	这就是为什么大量财大气粗的政府——以及某些财力并不如此雄厚的政府——正在投资于这方面的技术和技能。


This form of warfare is especially worrisome for two reasons.	这种形式的战争更值得担心，原因有二。


First, unlike the structure of Cold War-era “mutually assured destruction,” cyber weapons offer those who use them an opportunity to strike anonymously.	首先，与冷战时代的“确保互相摧毁”结构不同，网络武器为使用者提供了匿名袭击的机会。


Second, constant changes in technology ensure that no government can know how much damage its cyber-weapons can do or how well its deterrence will work until they use them.	其次，技术的不断改变保证了没有哪个政府可以了解其网络武器能造成多大的破坏以及形成多大的威慑力，只有使用过以后才能知晓。


As a result, governments now probe one another’s defenses every day, increasing the risk of accidental hostilities.	结果，如今各国都无时无刻不在互相监视防御力量，从而增加了意外敌对的风险。


If John Kerry and Chuck Hagel are confirmed as US secretaries of state and defense, respectively, the Obama administration will feature two prominent skeptics of military intervention.	如果约翰·克里和查克·哈格尔分别被确认为美国国务卿和国防部长，则奥巴马政府中将出现两位坚���的军事干预质疑派。


But high levels of US investment in drones, cyber-tools, and other unconventional weaponry will most likely be maintained.	但美国在无人机、网络工具和其他非传统武器上的投资水平极有可能不会降低。


These technological advances create the backdrop for the competition and rivalries roiling the two most important geopolitical hotspots.	这些技术进步形成了两大最重要地缘政治热点的竞争和敌对的背景。


In the Middle East, US and European officials will continue to resist deeper involvement in regional turmoil this year, leaving local powers – Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia – to vie for influence.	在中东，美国和欧洲官员今年将继续拒绝深度参与地区动荡，让本地势力——土耳其、伊朗和沙特——竞争地区影响力。


Confrontations between moderates and militants, and between Sunni and Shia factions, are playing out in several North African and Middle Eastern countries.	温和派和激进派的对立，以及逊尼派和什叶派的对立，将在不少北非和中东国家上演。


US officials have reason to believe that, over time, they will be able to worry less about the region and its problems.	美国官员有理由相信，假以时日，他们可以降低对该地区及其问题的担忧程度。


According to current projections, technological innovations in unconventional energy will allow the US to meet more than 80% of its oil demand from sources in North and South America by 2020.	根据当前预测，非传统能源领域技术创新将在2020年使美国靠北美和南美的资源便可满足80%以上的能源需求。


China, on the other hand, is set to become more dependent on Middle Eastern output.	另一方面，中国将越来越依赖中东的石油产出。


Meanwhile, East Asia will remain a potential trouble spot in 2013.	与此同时，东亚仍将是2013年潜在麻烦点。


Many of China’s neighbors fear that its ongoing economic and military expansion poses a growing threat to their interests and independence, and are reaching out to the US to diversify their security partnerships and hedge their bets on China’s benign intentions.	中国的众多邻国担心其经济和军事的不断扩张给它们的利益和独立带来越来越大的威胁，并在倒向美国以寻求安全伙伴的多样化以及防范中国的不良企图。


The US, eager to boost its economy’s longer-term prospects by engaging new trade partners in the world’s fastest-growing region, is shifting resources to Asia – though US (and European) policymakers would be wise to move forward with a transatlantic free-trade agreement as well.	美国则可望通过在世界增长最快的地区开发新贸易伙伴来提振其长期经济前景，因此也在转向亚洲——尽管美国（和欧洲）决策者同时也在明智地推进跨大西洋自由贸易协定。


There is a growing risk that the new Chinese leadership will interpret a heavier US presence in the region as an attempt to contain China’s rise and stunt its growth.	一个越来越大的风险是，新的中国领导权将意味着美国在该地区的深度参与，以此作为遏制中国崛起、阻碍中国增长的手段。


We have already seen a series of worrisome confrontations in the region, pitting China against Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea, and against Japan in the East China Sea.	在该地区，我们已经看到了一系列令人担忧的对立，比如南海的中越对立和中菲对立，以及东海的中日对立。


While these disputes are unlikely to provoke military hostilities this year, the use of drones and cyber weapons remains a real threat.	这些纷争今年尚不会导致军事对抗，但无人机和网络武器的使用仍是实实在在的威胁。


The greatest risk for 2013 is large-scale economic conflict in Asia, which would not only harm the countries directly involved, but would also undermine global recovery.	2013年的最大风险是亚洲的大规模经济冲突，这不仅会直接伤害牵涉到的国家，也会阻碍全球复苏。


The first shots in this battle have already been fired.	这个战场上的第一批战火已经被点燃了。


Last summer, disputes over a string of contested islands in the East China Sea led to a furious exchange of charges between China and Japan, the world’s second- and third-largest economies, respectively.	去年夏天，东海一系列岛屿上的争议导致了世界第二和第三大经济体——中国和日本的交恶。


The two sides were never in danger of going to war, but Chinese officials allowed nationalist protests to develop into boycotts of Japanese products and acts of vandalism against Japanese companies.	双方距离开战为时尚早，但中国官员放任国内爆发民族主义游行、抵制日货和针对日企的破坏活动。 日本对华汽车出口下降了44.


Japan’s automobile exports to China fell 44.5%, and China’s imports from Japan fell nearly 10% – all in just one month.	5%，而中国来自日本的进口下降了近10%——所有这些都是在一个月内发生的。


That was a tough hit for a struggling Japanese economy.	对于苦苦挣扎的日本经济来说，这是个严重的打击。


It is also a clear warning to the rest of us that a fight need not involve troops, tanks, and rockets to exact a heavy price.	对我们这些认为并非军队、坦克和火箭才能造成沉重代价的人来说，这也是个清晰的警告。


A New Year\u0027s Resolution	新年的决心


It is time for New Year's resolutions, and this year's are obvious.	又值做新年决心之季，今年尤为明显。


When the millennium opened, world leaders pledged to seek peace, the end of poverty, and a cleaner environment.	新千年伊始之际，世界各国领导者们庄重许诺，将致力于寻求和平方案、解决贫困问题，创造一个更为清洁的环境。


Since then, the world has seen countless acts of violence, terrorism, famine, and environmental degradation.	自那以后，全世界却目睹了无数暴力恐怖活动、饥荒成灾和环境不断恶化。


In 2005, we can begin to change direction.	2005年，我们准备调整方向。


Knowledge, scientific advance, travel, and global communications give us many opportunities to find solutions for the world's great problems.	各种新认知、科学进步、旅游和全球传播给了我们更多的选择以解决世界重大问题。


When a new disease called SARS hit China last year, the World Health Organization coordinated the actions of dozens of governments, and the crisis was quickly brought under control, at least for now.	去年一种叫做SARS的新疾病袭击中国，世界卫生组织协调各国政府行动，迅速控制了危险局面，至少现在已完全平息。


When Bill Gates donated $1 billion to bring vaccines to poor children, he made it possible to protect tens of millions of young people from preventable diseases.	当比尔·盖茨向贫穷儿童捐出价值十亿美元的疫苗时，他保护了成千上万年轻人免受疾病传染。


When an agricultural research unit called the World Agroforestry Center discovered that a certain tree could help African farmers grow more food, they introduced a new and valuable approach to overcoming Africa's chronic food crisis.	当一个叫做世界农林中心的农业调查机构发现有一种树可以帮助非洲农民扩大粮食产量，它们介绍了一种全新且有价值的方法以克服长期困扰非洲的粮食危机。


Unfortunately, such examples of international cooperation are as rare as they are impressive.	不幸的是，这样全球合作的例子少得可怜，不足以给人们留下深刻印象。


With our knowledge, science, and technology, the horrendous living conditions of the world's poorest people could be dramatically improved. Millions of people could be spared malaria, HIV/AIDS, hunger, and life in slums.	世界最贫困人口的生活条件可以在我们现有的知识和科学技术水平帮助下得到显著提高，使成千上百万人免遭疟疾、艾滋病、饥荒和贫民窟生活的折磨。


The problem is not that we lack good solutions. The problem is that we fail to cooperate globally to put those solutions into practice.	问题不是我们缺少解决良方，而是我们不能通力进行全球性合作来把这些措施付诸于实施。


United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan has honored me by making me his Special Adviser on the Millennium Development Goals and asking me to lead a group of scholars and development experts in identifying practical steps to reach the goals by the target date in 2015.	联合国秘书长科菲·安南任命我为"千年发展目标"的特别顾问，让我带领一个由学者和发展专家组成的团队，确定实质性的步骤，以期在2005年完成预定目标，这让我感到莫大的荣幸。


This effort, known as the UN Millennium Project, will issue its report to Secretary-General Annan on January 17, 2005.	同时，我们将在2005年1月17日向安南秘书长递交有关"联合国千年计划"的报告。 而全世界的人们也将能在网站www.


Our study, Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals , will be available for free around the world at www.unmillenniumproject.org .	unmillenniumproject. org上免费看到我们的研究成果《投资发展：完成千年发展目标的实质性步骤》。


What we learned is easily summarized.	我们的研究结果归纳起来很简单对我们知道的内容进行归纳是很简单的。


For every major problem - hunger, illiteracy, malnutrition, malaria, AIDS, drought, and so forth - there are practical solutions that are proven and affordable.	对于每个主要问题，诸如饥荒、文盲、营养不良、疟疾、艾滋病、干旱等等，也有相应能够承受且已被证明可操作的解决方法。


These investments, in turn, would strengthen the private sector and economic growth.	反过来，这些投资也可以加强私有产业并推动经济增长。


Yet they require global partnership between the rich and poor countries of the world.	但这要求全球贫富国家之间通力合作才能做到。


Most importantly, the world's richest countries need to do much more to help the poorest countries make use of modern science and technology to solve these great problems.	最重要的是，最富有的国家应该帮助帮助最贫穷的国家充分利用现代科学技术来解决这些主要问题。


The US, for example, currently spends around $450 billion each year on its military, but less than $15 billion to help the world's poorest countries fight disease, educate their children, and protect the environment.	比如说，近几年美国军费高达每年4,500亿美元，而政府用于帮助最贫穷的国家战胜疾病、教育儿童和保护环境的支出还不到150亿美元。


This is a mistake, because military approaches alone cannot make America safe.	这是一个错误，因为仅靠军备不足以确保美国安全。


Only shared prosperity can truly make the planet secure.	只有共同繁荣才能真正给地球带来安全。


The US should be investing much more in peaceful economic development.	美国应该在和平经济发展方面投入更多。


Germany, Japan, and several other rich countries are also doing much less than they should - and much less than they promised the poor countries that they would do.	德国、日本和其余的发达国家也同样做得不够，远不如他们曾对贫穷国家承诺过的那么好。


In 2002, all donor countries committed to "make concrete efforts" to reach 0.7% of national income in development aid to poor countries.	在2002年，所有的捐助国都承诺要通过"实质性努力"拿出国家收入的0. 7%去帮助贫穷国家发展。


Germany, Japan, and the US, among others, remain far below this commitment.	但是，德国、日本和美国，和其他发达国家，做的比起他们承诺的差得太远。


The year 2005 will offer many opportunities for citizens around the world to insist that their leaders keep their Millennium promises.	全世界各国公民在2005年会有很多机会坚持要求他们的政府信守承诺，完成千年计划。


After our report is issued in January, Secretary-General Kofi Annan will issue a report to the world in the spring, identifying the practical steps that should be taken this year.	我们的报告将会在一月份完成，届时安南秘书长会在春天发布一份报告，确认新的一年里要采取的具体步骤。


Around the same time, an important commission on Africa will issue a report to United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair.	同时，一个重要的非洲委员会会向英国首相布莱尔提交一份报告。


Then, in July, the UK will host the annual G-8 Summit of the rich countries.	随后，英国将在7月份主持一年一度的八国峰会。


Blair has promised that he will make the fight against poverty and long-term climate change the two priorities of the summit.	布莱尔首相承诺它会致力于解决贫困和长期气候变化问题，这也是峰会的两大焦点问题。


In September, the world's leaders will reconvene at the UN to decide on their actions during the coming decade.	9月份，各国领导会再次相聚于联合国，讨论决定今后十年的行动计划。


The rich and powerful nations often declare their leadership in the world.	富有强大的国家经常向全世界宣扬他们的领导能力。


The US claims that it helps the world fight poverty, but instead spends its money on weapons.	美国声称它帮助世界抵抗贫穷，但事实上它在武器上花了很多钱。


Germany and Japan say that they want a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, but neither has yet followed through on its own pledges to help the world's poorest people.	德国和日本说他们想在联合国安理会获得常任理事国的席位，但他们都没有坚持承诺去帮助世界上最贫穷的人们。


The world's poorest countries will ask themselves why they should vote for Germany and Japan to have permanent seats on the Security Council if they can't keep their promises.	最贫穷的国家就会问：若德国和日本不能信守承诺，为什么还要投票支持他们获得常任理事国的席位呢？


Nothing would be wiser for the world's rich countries than to fulfill their pledges to the world's poor, hungry and disease-ridden peoples.	所以对世界最富裕的国家而言，最明智的选择就是信守承诺帮助世界上贫穷、饥饿和深受疾病折磨的人们。


Therein lies the path to sustained peace.	和平之路就在脚下。


2005 is the year that words can become reality, and that the world can begin to fulfill its hopes for our new millennium. Let us make our leaders aware that we aspire to shared peace and prosperity.	2005年是诺言实现的一年，世界将实现我们赋予新千年的希望，我们要让各国首领意识到，我们希望分享和平和繁荣。


Let us pledge that the rich and powerful should take real actions to help the poor, the weak, and the suffering.	让我们举杯祝福，富裕强盛的国家能采取切实行动帮助贫困、弱势和痛苦中煎熬的人们。


In Defense of Angela Merkel	为默克尔辩护


PARIS – The recent cover of Der Spiegel showing German Chancellor Angela Merkel in front of the Acropolis surrounded by Nazi officers serves an important purpose: it finally poses, in a way that cannot be evaded, the question of Germanophobia in Europe.	巴黎——近期《明镜周刊》印有纳粹军官在雅典卫城前环绕德国总理默克尔的封面其实有着重要的目的：即终于以无可回避的方式将欧洲的恐德问题摆在了人们面前。


The abuse of Germany has dragged on for quite some time.	对德国的侮辱已经持续了很长一段时间。


Demonstrations in Cyprus in March 2013 included banners bearing caricatures of Merkel done up as Adolf Hitler.	2013年3月塞浦路斯示威者举着将默克尔描绘成希特勒形象的漫画。


In Valencia at around the same time, on the occasion of the annual Fallas celebration, there was Merkel as an evil headmistress delivering to the head of the Spanish government and his ministers “The Ten Commandments of Angela the Exterminator.”	几乎同时在瓦伦西亚一年一度的火节庆典上，出现了装扮成邪恶女校长的默克尔将“灭绝女王安吉拉十诫”亲手交给西班牙政府首脑及各部部长。


She ended up being burned in effigy in the flames of the bonfires of St. Joseph.	圣约瑟篝火的烈焰最终吞噬了默克尔的肖像。


Two months later, in Portugal, similar parades featured the same Hitlerized Merkel caricatures, borne by howling demonstrators dressed in mourning clothes and decrying the German leader’s “policy of massacring the poor.”	两个月后，葡萄牙举行的类似游行高举同样希特勒化的默克尔肖像，高声叫喊的示威者身着丧服，谴责德国领导人实习“屠杀穷人的政策”。


And, naturally, there was Greece, where the phenomenon reached its apogee during the near-riots of October 2012, in which the world was treated to the spectacle of Nazi and German flags flown together – and then burned – together before the Acropolis in scenes that presaged the Der Spiegel cover.	当然还有希腊，仇德现象在2012年10月希腊近乎骚乱的活动中达到了高潮。 全世界在目睹《明镜周刊》封面前，亲眼见证了纳粹和德国国旗一同飘扬，之后又在雅典卫城前同被付之一炬的奇异景象。


In Italy, the right-wing daily newspaper Il Giornale had no scruples about devoting its headline for August 3, 2012, to the emergence of the “Fourth Reich.”	意大利右翼日报《伊尔乔尔纳莱》毫不犹豫地将2012年8月3日的头版头条定为兴起的“第四帝国”。


Likewise, conspiracy websites in the countries of northern Europe claim that Germany’s eagerness to support Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko against Russian President Vladimir Putin is a reenactment of Hitler’s subjugation of Ukraine.	同样，北欧国家的阴谋论站点声称德国热心支持乌克兰总统波罗申科对抗俄国总统普京是想重演希特勒对乌克兰的征服。


Then there is France, where the game seems to be to see who can come out on top in populist denunciations of the new and detestable “German empire.”	再有就是法国，那里似乎在比赛谁能在民粹主义谴责可恨的“新德意志帝国”的战斗中拔得头筹。


From the extreme right, National Front leader Marine Le Pen chides Merkel for the “suffering” that she is imposing on the peoples of Europe.	极右翼的国民阵线领导人勒庞谴责默克尔带给欧洲人民的“痛苦”。


From the opposite extreme, we have the Left Party’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon thundering against Merkel’s “austerity” policy and inviting her to “shut up.”	同时极左翼党派的吕克·梅朗松大声反对默克尔的“紧缩”政策，并请她“别再说话”。


The problem with this Germanophobia is not simply that it is stupid, or that it is yet another symptom of the decomposition, before our eyes, of the noble European project of integration and ever-closer union.	仇德问题最可怕的并非愚蠢，也不是宏大的欧洲统一融合计划就在我们眼前成了黄粱美梦。


No, the problem with today’s Germanophobia is that, contrary to what the sorcerer’s apprentices who stoke it would have us believe, their behavior is not a sign of their opposition to the true fascism that lies on the horizon, but rather of their allegiance – and even contribution – to it. Why?	不，今天仇德问题的实质恰恰背离了那些幕后操纵者的初衷，他们的所作所为绝非在反对初露端倪的真正法西斯主义的崛起，反而是为法西斯主义贡献和效忠。


There are several reasons.	这么说有几个理由。


For starters, to oppose Germany’s social, economic, and foreign policies by equating Merkel with Hitler is to banalize Hitler.	首先，通过将默克尔等同于希特勒的方式来反对德国社会、经济和外交政策是对希特勒的庸俗化。


However legitimate disagreement with those policies may be, Germany is one of the continent’s most scrupulous and exemplary democracies.	无论德国现行政策所引发的分歧多么合情合理，德国依然是欧洲大陆上最严格和模范的民主国家。


To say that it resembles in any way the Nazi regime – which in Europe still stands for the destruction of democracy (indeed, civilization itself) – is to exonerate that regime, and to reassure and encourage today’s neo-fascists, allowing them, whether intentionally or not, to reenter the public debate.	说德国在任何方面类似于在欧洲仍象征毁灭民主（甚至是文明本身）的纳粹政权是在为纳���政权开脱，是在安抚和鼓励今天的新法西斯主义者，让他们有意无意地回到公众辩论之中。


What is more (and this is key), those keenest to discredit Merkel just happen to be the same people who do not hesitate to waltz with Viennese neo-Nazis or to form an alliance, as in Athens, with the leaders of a genuinely extremist party.	更有甚者（而且也是问题的关键所在），正是那些最急于抹黑默克尔的人毫不犹豫地与维也纳新纳粹分子勾勾搭搭，比如雅典就与真正的极端主义党派领袖结成联盟。


All of the clamor raised around a Germany that has supposedly “reunited with its demons” masks the voice of fascistic parties – from Greece’s Golden Dawn to Hungary’s Jobbik, Slovakia’s SNS, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, and Bulgaria’s Ataka – that are in the process of establishing themselves in Europe.	所谓德国“重新妖魔化”的叫嚣掩盖了法西斯党派的行踪——其中包括希腊金色黎明党和匈牙利比克党，还有斯洛伐克民族党，比利时法兰德斯利益党，保加利亚艾塔克党都在竭力争取在欧洲站稳脚跟。


It should also be noted that Merkel is a woman, and that hatred for women – the disdain in which they, right alongside the Jews, were regarded by the racist theoreticians of the 1920s and 1930s – has been an essential dimension of every expression of fascism.	此外还要注意默克尔是位女性，而对女性的仇恨——二十世纪二三十年代种族主义理论家对犹太人和女性的蔑视一直是法西斯主义最重要的表达。


Likewise, the slogans slung about in Valencia in October 2012 – with demonstrators urged to chant at the chancellor’s effigy, “You will love money above all else” and “You will honor the banks and the Bank” – had the unmistakably foul odor of the old mantras about “the golden calf” and the “cosmopolitan plutocracy.”	同样，2012年10月瓦伦西亚示威者在总理肖像前高喊的口号“你对钱的爱超过一切”和“你要确保兑付欧洲和各国央行”——毫无疑问能闻到原来纳粹口号的臭气，比方说“金牛”和“都会富豪”。


People have finally come to understand that anti-Americanism, born on the extreme right and fed, in Germany, for example, by the philosophy of Martin Heidegger and his acolytes, is a fixture of fascism.	人们终于认识到出身极右翼并在德国受哲学家马丁·海德格尔及其追随者助长的反美主义其实质属于法西斯主义现象。


It is now time for us to understand that the same is true of Germanophobia.	我们现在应该理解仇德也属于同样的现象。


In France, it appeared with the French anti-Semitic novelist and activist Maurice Barrès, who saw in the philosophy of Immanuel Kant a vehicle for the “Jewification” of European minds.	在康德哲学中看到欧洲思想“犹太化”契机的法国反犹主义小说家兼活动家莫里斯·巴雷斯是始作俑者。


It triumphed with Charles Maurras’ Action Française and its protracted war with “Jewish and Germanic abstractions.”	仇德思想与查尔斯·莫拉斯的“法语行动”及其对“犹太与德国抽象概念”的持久战一同广为传播。


And it culminated with the red-brown cells that, even today, on sites that I prefer not to mention, offer “grub” and a “hideout” for persons willing to “bump off” the “bosses” on the chancellor’s “payroll.”	它随红褐小组的崛起达到高潮，并且时至今日，仍在我不愿提及的隐秘地点为愿意“干掉”总理“手下老板”的志愿者提供藏身之所。


The history of ideas has its logic, reason, and folly, its unconscious and its trajectory.	思想的轨迹自有其独特的逻辑、理性和愚蠢。 它虽无意识但又遵循某种轨迹。


It is both futile and dangerous to deny any of them.	否认任何一面不仅危险而且徒劳。


That is why, today, it is critically important, in the face of a dark force that is rising, swelling, and unfurling in Europe, to defend Angela Merkel.	正因如此，今天在欧洲崛起、膨胀、招摇的黑暗势力面前，捍卫默克尔就显得至关重要。


Angela Merkel Meets the World	安格拉•默克尔新官上任


At long last, Angela Merkel is Germany’s new – and first woman – Chancellor.	终于，安格拉•默克尔成为德国的新任—也是第一位女性—总理。


Although continuity will remain the hallmark of foreign policy, Germany’s international engagement under Merkel will sound and feel different from that under Gerhard Schroeder’s leadership.	虽然连续性会仍然是外交政策的主旋律，但是德国在默克尔领导之下在国际事务中的表现和在施罗德的领导之下会有不同的面貌。


Schroeder came to power seven years ago representing a new generation whose formative experience was not the Cold War, European integration, and transatlantic friendship, but German unification and the restoration of national sovereignty.	施罗德代表着新一代的德国人在7年前掌权。 这一代人的集体体验不是“冷战”、不是欧洲一体化、不是跨越大西洋的友谊，而是德国的统一和国家主权的恢复。


For him and the team that took over after Helmut Kohl’s 16-year reign, Germany had become a normal country, no different from other European heavyweights like France or Britain.	对于他和从执政16年的科尔手中接过大权的那个团队来说，德国已经成为一个普通的国家，与欧洲其他如法国或英国这样的重量级国家没有什么不同。


Indeed, one of Schroeder’s first major foreign-policy experiences was the EU summit of 1999, where the leaders of France and Britain played rough with the newcomer from Berlin.	确实，施罗德的第一次重大外交政策经验就是1999年的欧盟峰会。 当时的英法两国领导人给了这位来自柏林的政坛新人一个下马威。


The lesson that Schroeder drew was to insist that Germany could no longer be taken for granted and would demand a role commensurate to its size and weight.	施罗德所汲取的教训就是坚持德国不能再被轻视，它需要扮演一个与其国力相适应的角色。


Self-assertion became the watchword of German foreign policy.	坚持己见成为德国外交政策的口号。


Thus, when Schroeder claimed special circumstances for Germany’s failure to meet the budgetary ceilings of the European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact, he seemed to be arguing that the restrictions should apply only to smaller countries, not to the big players.	因此，当施罗德宣称德国未能遵守欧盟《稳定和增长协定》所规定的预算上限有其特殊原因时，他似乎是在辩解说这样的限制只应该适用于小国而不是大国。


When he rightly opposed America’s war against Iraq, the pride of standing up to the world's only superpower was palpable.	当他公开反对美国出兵伊拉克时，向世界上唯一的超级大国示威的自豪之情溢于言表。


When he established a close personal and political relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he signaled to the world – and to the EU’s sensitive new Eastern European members – that Germany’s foreign policy would no longer be constrained by the past.	当他与俄罗斯总统普京建立起密切的个人和政治关系时，他向世界—以及欧盟敏感的东欧新成员国--传递的信息是，德国的外交政策将不再受过去的牵制。


In fairness, it should be acknowledged that it was under Schroeder that Germany shed hesitations to deploy soldiers abroad.	凭心而论，应该承认德国正是在施罗德的领导下才打消了向海外派兵的顾虑。


His support for international crisis missions in Kosovo, Bosnia, or Afghanistan required considerable political courage and made Germany one of the major contributors to international stability efforts.	他对在波斯尼亚科索沃或在阿富汗的国际维和行动的支持，需要极大的政治勇气，同时也使德国成为一支主要的国际维和力量。


To have removed the issue from domestic ideological controversy ranks as a major achievement of Schroeder’s tenure.	施罗德在任期内的重大成就之一就是将这一问题从国内的意识形态之争中剔除了。


But it was also meant to convey that Germany had grown up into a proper international power.	但这同时传达的另一个信息就是德国已经成长为一个真正意义上的国际强国。


With Merkel, the substance of Germany’s foreign policy will change little, but the assertive style will be muted.	在默克尔的领导下，德国外交政策几乎不会有实质性的变化，但其张扬的风格会有所收敛。


American leaders will welcome her election as proof that the estrangement in bilateral relations is over.	美国的领导人们会将她的当选作为双边关系恢复常态的证明而表示欢迎。


But that alienation already largely ended earlier this year, when the Bush administration realized that allies are good to have and that Germany is an important one.	但这种不和在今年早些时候，布什政府意识到德国在盟国中发挥着重要作用时，就已经结束了。


Merkel will reintroduce the warmth that has been missing under Schroeder, but she will not become America’s yes-woman.	默克尔会重拾在施罗德执政时期所缺失的温情，但她也不会对美国言听计从。


Nor will she abandon special relations with Russia, to which every German chancellor since Adenauer has attached major importance.	她更不会放弃与俄罗斯的特殊关系。 这是自阿登纳以来的历届总理都非常重视的关系。


But she has already made clear that Germany’s neighbors to the East will have no reason not feel bypassed.	但她已经明确表示德国的东欧邻国们没有理由感到被冷落。


She may even want to confirm that message by making her first official trip abroad not to Paris but to Warsaw or Vilnius.	她甚至还可能会通过将第一次官方访问的目的地定为华沙或维尔纽斯而不是巴黎，来确认这一讯息。


On the European project, she is as committed to integration as her predecessors have been.	在欧洲项目上，她对一体化的承诺和前任们一样坚定。


She will continue to emphasize close relations with France because there is no alternative; Britain, absent from the euro zone and the Schengen border regime, remains the odd man-in of the EU.	她会继续强调与法国的紧密关系，因为她别无选择； 英国没有加入欧元区和申根边界体系，仍然是欧盟的一大尴尬。


But there will be no new initiatives on integration until leaders in the countries that rejected the Constitutional Treaty are ready for a new try.	但是，在拒绝了《宪法条约》的国家的领导人们准备好再努力一次之前，欧洲一体化方面不会有新的举措出台。


Then Merkel will be in a key position to add weight to a new effort for moving the EU forward.	那时，默克尔会在增加推动欧盟发展的新举措的权重方面发挥重要作用。


She will continue to favor the eventual admission of the Balkan states, but she has left no doubt of her opposition to full membership for Turkey, which is the major substantive change from the Schroeder era (although her government will not block the start of negotiations in early October).	她会继续鼓励欧盟最终接纳巴尔干国家，但她在反对给予土耳其正式成员国地位的立场上也毫不含糊。 这是自施罗德时代以来的一个重大的实质性态度转变（虽然她的政府不会阻挠在十月初启动谈判）。


In fact, there is very little Merkel has to do after her election to make her mark on foreign policy; the visible change of style will suffice, at least at first.	实际上，默克尔大选胜出以后，在外交政策方面发挥的余地不大。 至少在开始阶段，执政风格上的转变就足够了。


In any case, she will have her hands full pushing through the economic reforms for which she will be elected and which are her top priority.	不论如何，推进经济改革的任务就足以让她全力以赴，而应对这些当务之急也正是她获选的原因。


There are indications that Germany is finally emerging from years of economic stagnation, not least thanks to the reforms started under Schroeder.	有迹象表明德国正在走出长期的经济滞胀，这少不了要归功于施罗德时代开始的改革。


At home, Merkel can hope to reap the rewards.	在国内，默克尔有希望收获其改革成果。


Abroad, Merkel has no need to demonstrate that Germany is a big country in Europe; her partners are fully aware of this.	在国外，默克尔没有必要展示德国是欧洲大国； 她的伙伴们清楚地认识到了这一点。


But it is also more than just a normal country: Germany remains central to holding together the two international institutions that will continue to assure its well-being, the European Union and the Atlantic alliance.	然而，德国也决不只是一个寻常国家：它在维系两个会继续保障它的福祉的国际机构—欧盟和大西洋联盟—方面也是举足轻重。


There are some indications that Merkel is more aware of this then Schroeder was.	有迹象表明默克尔在这一点上的认识比施罗德深刻。


One can only hope that this recognition will serve as her guidepost when tough decisions must be made and changes in style alone will not be enough.	人们只能希望这一认识会成为她在进行艰难决策时的指向标。 这样的决策是在风格改变不足以应对形势时所必需��。


Angela Merkel’s Vision Thing	默克尔的远景问题


CAMBRIDGE – As Europe struggles to save the euro, the chorus of complaints about weak leadership in the world’s major economies grows louder.	发自剑桥——在欧洲挣扎着拯救欧元之际，对世界各大经济体缺乏强势领导的抱怨也甚嚣尘上。


Many have singled out German Chancellor Angela Merkel for failing to promote a vision of Europe similar to that of her predecessor and mentor, Helmut Kohl.	其中许多人都专门点了德国总理安格拉·默克尔的名，认为她未能像其前任和导师赫尔穆特·科尔那样为欧洲树立一个长远的愿景。


Are the critics right?	那么这种说法是对的吗？


Part of what effective leaders do is communicate a vision that gives meaning to policies and inspires others to support these policies (and those who propose them).	作为一名优秀的领导者，其中一部分工作就是要传达一种远景，既能以此为相关政策赋予意义，也可借此发动民众对这些政策（及其倡议者）给于支持。


It is one of the ways in which leaders help to create shared objectives and energize common action.	这同时也是领导人之间构建共同目标，为集体行动注入活力的途径之一。


Usually, such a vision provides a scenario for the future that is meant to encourage change, though it may also portray the status quo – or the past – as attractive, thereby encouraging resistance to change.	这个远景通常会勾画一副鼓动变革的未来图景，但有时也会绘声绘色地描绘现状——或者辉煌的过去——以抵制变革。


Either way, without a vision, it is difficult to lead others anywhere.	而一旦缺乏远景，上述两种方式都将无法引领众人。


Frederick Smith, CEO of Federal Express, has argued that “the primary task of leadership is to communicate the vision and values of an organization.”	对此联邦快递首席执行官弗里德里克·斯密斯曾说：“领导的首要任务就是为组织传达远景和价值观。 ”


But one must be cautious about visions.	但对待远景也必须十分谨慎。


Sometimes leaders think that vision can solve most of their problems, but the wrong vision – or an overly ambitious vision – can do damage.	有时领导人自以为远景可以解决他们所面临的大部分问题，但殊不知一个错误的——或是一个野心过分膨胀的——远景却会令他们深受其害。


George H.W. Bush was faulted (and faulted himself) for not having what he called “the vision thing.”	老布什就因为缺乏所谓“远景之类的东西”而吃了大亏，甚至连累了自己。


When pressed by his staff to speak more boldly and expansively, he replied, “It’s just not me.”	当他面对手下们的追问，要求更加直接和详细地阐述其远景时，他却总是回答“那不是我的作风”


After the shock of the September 2001 terrorist attacks, his son, George W. Bush, developed a far more ambitious vision.	而在2001年9·11恐怖袭击后，他的儿子则小布什构建了一个更为雄心勃勃的远景。


As one former adviser put it, he was “irresistibly drawn to Big Ideas like bringing democracy to the Middle East, Big Ideas that stood in sharp contrast to the prudent small ball played by his father.”	正如一位前白宫顾问指出的那样，小布什“痴迷于把民主带到中东这样的宏大理想，与其父亲谨慎渐进的作风截然不同”。


Yet the elder Bush turned out to have had the better foreign policy.	然而，两相对比之下，我们会发现老布什的外交政策更胜一筹。


Some aspiring leaders think that they must proclaim a vision that overawes their followers. In practice, however, a successful vision often arises from the needs of the group, which are then formulated and articulated by the leader.	一些有抱负的领导人认为自己必须构建一个能够镇摄住其追随者的远景，但在实践中，我们发现一个成功的远景通常源自于集体的需要，领导人只是适时将其提炼出来并阐明清楚而已。


The vision that Martin Luther King, Jr., expressed in his “I Have a Dream” speech, for example, was deeply rooted not only in America’s professed values of equality and inclusion, but also in African-Americans�� experience of subordination and exclusion.	比如马丁·路德·金在他那篇名文《我有个梦想》中所提出的远景不仅发端于美国平等和包容的主流价值观之上，而且还源自于非裔美国人饱受奴役和排斥的惨痛经历。


At the same time, the pressure to articulate a vision can get a leader into difficulty.	此外，领导人也会因阐明远景的压力而陷入困境。


As one university president put it: “Everyone asks, ‘What’s your vision?’	正如一位大学校长所说，“每个人都会问‘你的远景是什么’。


But you offend many people and get into trouble by answering too quickly.	如果鲁莽应对的话将得罪很多人，而最佳的回答是以‘你认为呢？


The smart response at the beginning is, ‘What do you think?’ and then listen before you articulate your vision.”	’来开头，然后认真倾听，再阐述你的远景。 ”


A successful vision has to be attractive to various circles of followers and stakeholders.	一个成功的远景必须能够吸引众多追随者和利益相关方。


What plays well with one group may not sit well with another.	在一个群体受欢迎不代表在另一群体里就行得通。


And, to be sustainable, a successful vision must also be an effective diagnosis of the situation that a group faces.	同时一个历久弥坚的成功远景必须奠基于对群体所面临状况的深刻理解。


Leaders must get the question right before proposing answers.	领导人在提供答案前必须准确把握住问题。


To choose goals and articulate them in a vision, they need not only to solicit input from their followers, but also to understand the context of their choices.	他们不仅要倾听追随者们的意见，而且还要深刻理解影响人们选择的背景因素，在此基础上才能选定目标并在远景中阐述出来。


They must be able to assess reality accurately.	一句话，领导人必须精确评估现实。


The boldness of a vision varies with the type of leadership involved.	远景的气魄随领导风格的不同而不同。


Leaders of social movements can call forth larger visions than public officials can.	社会运动的领导人就比公务员拥有更宏大的远景。


A movement leader can promote a vision that is miles ahead of his followers, while a prime minister with multiple objectives and responsibilities must maintain a continuous dialogue with the public, which keeps him or her from moving too far ahead of citizens.	一场社会运动的领导人能够宣扬一个远超其追随者想象的远景，而一位承担着多元目标以及各种责任的总理则必须与公众时常沟通，因此许下的远景也无法脱离群众太远。


After former US Vice President Al Gore lost his bid for the presidency in 2000, he became a leader of the social movement to combat global climate change, and his style changed from pragmatic to inspirational and prophetic.	美国前副总统戈尔在输掉了2000年总统大选后摇身一变成为对抗全球气候变暖运动的领导人，而他的领导风格也从务实转变为启发性和先知的类型。


Analysts judge a government leader’s vision in terms of whether it creates a sensible balance between realism and risk, and whether it balances objectives with capabilities.	分析家根据运动领导人是否能在现实与风险，目标与能力之间取得平衡来判断他的远景能否成功。


Anyone can produce a wish list, but effective visions combine inspiration with feasibility.	谁都能发出一大堆宏愿，但有效的远景是前瞻性和可行性相结合的产物。


Critics of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, for example, acknowledged that his ability to articulate a vision was one of his great strengths as a leader, but complained about his lack of attention to detail.	就连英国前首相托尼布·莱尔的批评者们也承认：虽然总是对远景的细节缺乏关注，但布莱尔阐述远景的能力也是其作为领导人的巨大优势之一。


Similarly, two twentieth-century US presidents, Woodrow Wilson and George W. Bush, were good at articulating an ambitious foreign-policy vision, but were poor at refining and reshaping their vision when they encountered implementation challenges.	类似的还有20世纪的两位美国总统——伍德罗·威尔逊和小布什——他们都擅长阐述一个宏大的外交政策远景，但当这些远景在实施中遇阻之时，却又不善于重新界定和修改远景。


Both promoted democracy, but both did so in a manner that generated a backlash against democracy promotion.	他们两位都希望推广民主，但都以一种容易招致反抗的方式来实施。


Of course, prudence is not enough.	当然，一味的谨慎渐进也是不够的。


Sometimes leaders need to stretch the boundaries of realism to inspire their followers and call forth extra effort, as Winston Churchill did in Great Britain in 1940.	有时候领导人就需要突破现实的藩篱去激励追随者并激发出额外的效应，如同温斯顿·丘吉尔1940年在英国所做的那样。


But, without a degree of prudence based upon comprehension of the context, visions turn from grand to grandiose and undercut the values that they seek to promote.	但如果没有对背景的理解，没有基于这种理解的某种程度上的谨慎，远景很容易从宏大沦为浮夸，从而损害了它所追求的价值。


Like Franklin Roosevelt, who acted very cautiously in trying to persuade American opinion to abandon isolationism in the 1930’s, Merkel has proceeded cautiously on saving the euro.	正如富兰克林·罗斯福在1930年小心劝服美国人民放弃孤立主义那样，今天，默克尔也在谨慎地拯救欧元。


She faced public skepticism about using German funds to bail out the Greek economy.	她顶着公众对使用德国基金拯救希腊经济的怀疑。


Her coalition was divided on the issue, and her party lost state elections.	她的政治盟友在这个问题上发生了分裂，自己所在的政党也输掉了州选举。


If she had acted more boldly, she might have lost even more support, but the steps that she agreed to remained insufficient to reassure markets.	如果采取更激进行动，那么默克尔或许会失去更多的支持，而她目前踏出的步伐仍不足以让市场重获信心。


At the end of October, however, she finally articulated a vision of the future of Europe that persuaded the German Bundestag to agree to a package of measures to save the euro.	然而在今年十月底，她最终为欧洲的未来勾勒了一个远景，并以此说服德国联邦议会同意拯救欧元的一揽子计划。


Whether she waited too long – and whether her vision will prove convincing – will be determined in the coming months.	但这一远景是否为时已晚——以及是否可行——将在未来数月见分晓。


PISA’s Promise	PISA的成功


PARIS – By assessing the capabilities and knowledge of students in the highest-performing and most rapidly improving education systems, the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment provides valuable options for reform and information on how to achieve it.	巴黎—经合组织的国际学生评估计划（Program for International Student Assessment，简称PISA）评估表现最好、进步最大的教育体系下的学生的学力和知识，为如何实现这一点提供有价值的改革选项。


PISA brings together policymakers, educators, and researchers from around the world to discuss what knowledge students need to become successful and responsible citizens in today’s world, and how to develop more effective, inclusive education systems.	PISA集中了全球决策者、教育者和研究者，讨论若要在当今世界中成为成功而负责任的公民学生需要哪些知识，以及如何发展更高效、更包容的教育体系。


Some claim that the PISA results are based on too wide a range of factors to be relevant, while others point out the challenges inherent in testing students in various languages and with different cultural backgrounds.	有些人说PISA的结果基于太广泛的因素组合，这些因素之间缺乏关联，另一些人则认为测试不同语言和文化背景的学生天生具有不合理性。


Of course, comparing education across countries is not easy, but PISA remains the most useful tool yet developed for policymakers attempting to improve their national education systems.	当然，比较国家间的教育决非易事，但PISA仍是目前试图改善国民教育体系的决策者最有用的工具。


Before PISA, many governments claimed that they oversaw the world’s most successful education systems, and insisted that they had already taken the steps needed to address any shortcomings.	PISA出现前，许多政府都宣称它们管理者世界上最成功的教育体系，并认为它们i经采取了必要措施纠正一切缺陷。


By exposing weaknesses in a particular country’s system, PISA assessments help to ensure that policymakers recognize – and, it is hoped, address – remaining deficiencies.	PISA评估暴露出一国体系的弱点，从而有助于确保决策者认识到——并希望他们改进——仍然存在的缺陷。


The sense of accountability that PISA fosters among governments and education ministers has helped to spur them into action.	PISA给政府和教育部长造成了问责，这有助于刺激他们行动起来。 他们日益开始互相取经如何应用课程、教学和数字资源方面的创新；


They increasingly turn to one another to learn how to apply innovations in curricula, pedagogy, and digital resources; how to offer personalized learning experiences that maximize every student’s chances of success; and how to cope with diversity in the classroom.	如何提供个性化学习体验以最大化学生的成功机会； 以及如何应对教学所面临的多样性。


The OECD established PISA as a global assessment, because in today’s globalized world students must be able to collaborate with people from diverse backgrounds and appreciate different ideas, perspectives, and values.	经合组织将PISA立为全球评估，因为在当今全球化的世界中，学生必须能够与来自多种背景的人合作，接受不同的思想、观点和价值。


To give students the best possible chance to succeed, education must prepare them to handle issues that transcend national boundaries.	为了让学生获得最大的成功机会，教育必须让他们准备好处理超越国界的问题。


But PISA’s most important outcomes lie at the national level, because it inspires innovation and broadens educational perspectives within countries.	但PISA最重要的结果还在国家层面，因为它启发了创新，扩展了国家内部的教育前景。


Education systems as diverse as those in Finland, Japan, China, and Canada – which seldom registered on policymakers’ radars before – have become global reference points for excellence in education, helping other countries to design effective reforms.	芬兰、日本、中国和加拿大等多样化的教育体系——此前极少会有决策者关注——已成为卓越教育表现的全球参照点，有助于其他国家设计有效改革。


When Brazil emerged as the lowest-performing education system in the first PISA assessment, released in 2000, many people rightly questioned the fairness of comparing an emerging economy to advanced countries like Finland and Japan.	在2000年发布的首次PISA评估中，巴西教育体系表现最差，许多人正确地质疑将新兴市场与芬兰和日本等发达国家相比较是否公平。


But Brazil rose to the challenge, making massive investments in improving the quality of teaching.	但巴西随后奋起直追，在改进教学质量方面做了大手笔投资。


The country now boasts one of the world’s most rapidly improving education systems.	如今巴西已是全球教育体系进步最快的国家。


Germany also featured in PISA 2000, recording below-average performance and large social inequalities in education – an outcome that stunned Germans and initiated a months-long public debate.	德国也是PISA 2000中的突出者，其表现不及平均水平，并且存在巨大的教育社会不公，这一结果令德国人十分震惊，并开展了为期几个月的公共争论。


Spurred into action, the government launched initiatives to support disadvantaged and immigrant students, and made the notion of early childhood education a driving force in German education policy.	受到刺激的政府采取了支持弱势和移民学生的措施，并让早教成为德国教育政策的推动力。


Today, PISA reports confirm that the quality and fairness of Germany’s education system have improved considerably.	如今呢，PISA报告确认德国教育体系的质量和公平性有了重大进步。


Even in the world’s best-performing education systems, PISA helps to pinpoint areas for improvement.	即使在全球表现最好的教育体系，PISA也有助于指出改进方向。


For example, PISA assessments have revealed that, while Japanese students excel at reproducing what they have learned, they often struggle when asked to extrapolate from that knowledge and apply it creatively.	比如，PISA评估表明，尽管日本学生长于复述学到的知识，但被问及需要创造性地应用所学知识的外延性问题时往往难于应付。


The effort that this has inspired to create more innovative learning environments was apparent last April, during a visit to the Tohoku schools destroyed by the 2011 tsunami.	在去年4月访问被2011年海啸摧毁的东北学校时，这一结果所带来的创造更具创新性的学习环境的措施随处可见。


This experience offers yet another lesson: even in cases where social and cultural factors seem to be the main force shaping a country’s education style, improvements are possible.	这一经验提供了另一个教训：即使社会和文化因素是决定一国交易风格的主要力量，改进的空间仍然存在。


Countries like Japan do not have to change their cultures to address their educational shortcomings; they simply have to adjust their policies and practices.	日本等国家不需要改变文化来纠正教育不足； 它们只需要调整政策和实践。


Creating a global platform for collaboration in education research and innovation has been the PISA initiative’s aspiration from its conception in the late 1990s.	自20世纪90年代末PISA计划提出以来，创造教育研究和创新合作的全球平台就一直是其初衷。


Since then, policymakers, researchers, and experts have built the world’s largest professional network dedicated to the development of robust, reliable, and internationally comparable information on student learning outcomes.	此后，决策者、研究者和专家建立了全球最大的致力于发展鲁棒、可靠、关于的学生学习成果信息可进行国际比较的专业网络。


At the same time, PISA measures students’ social and emotional skills and attitudes toward learning, as well as educational equity and parental support – all of which provides indispensable context for understanding scores on international assessments.	与此同时，PISA还测量学生的社会与情商技能���他们对学习的态度，以及教育平等性和家长支持——所有这些为理解全球评估得分提供了不可或缺的基准。


Of course, assessments do not cover every important skill or attitude.	当然，评估并未覆盖所有重要技能或态度。


But there is convincing evidence that the knowledge and skills that the PISA system assesses are essential to students’ future success, and the OECD works continuously to broaden the range of cognitive and social skills that PISA measures.	但令人信服的证据表明PISA系统所评估的知识和技能对学生的未来成功至关重要，并且经合组织一直在致力于扩大PISA所测量的认知和社会技能的范围。


PISA has already prompted important advances in education worldwide.	PISA已经在推动全球教育重要进步方面起到了作用。


The OECD will continue to work with the 80 participating countries to develop the program further, so that it can continue to help policymakers and educators design and implement better education policies – and give their citizens access to the tools that they need to build better lives.	经合组织将继续与80个参与国合作，进一步开发该计划，以使其能够继续帮助决策者和教育者设计和实施更好的教育政策——并让公民获得实现美好生活所需要的工具。


An IMF We Can Love?	我们钟爱的国际货币基金组织？


CAMBRIDGE – What a difference the crisis has made for the International Monetary Fund.	剑桥报道－这次经济危机给国际货币基金组织带来了怎样的影响？


It was just a few months ago that this important but unloved institution, a landmark of post-war global economic arrangements, seemed destined to irrelevance.	就在几个月之前，这个重要但不为人爱的机构（战后进行全球经济安排的里程碑）似乎注定无能为力。


The IMF has long been a whipping boy for both left and right – the former because of the Fund’s emphasis on fiscal rectitude and economic orthodoxy, and the latter because of its role in bailing out indebted nations.	国际货币基金组织长久以来一直都是左派与右派的替罪羊——为前者替罪，是因为该组织将工作重点聚焦在财政廉洁与经济正统上； 而为后者代罪，则是因为该组织的作用在于救援那些负债累累的国家。


Developing nations grudgingly took its advice, while advanced nations, not needing the money, ignored it.	发展中国家勉强接受该组织的意见，而不需要资金的发达国家则采取忽略的态度。


In a world where private capital flows dwarf the resources at its disposal, the IMF had come to seem an anachronism.	当这个世界的私人资金流阻碍了该组织对各种资源的处理时，货币基金组织就看似一个时代错误。


And, when some of the IMF’s largest debtors (Brazil and Argentina) began to prepay their debts a few years ago with no new borrowers in sight, it looked like the final nail in the coffin had been struck.	而且，当该组织一些最大的债务人（巴西与阿根廷）开始在几年前预付其债务而没有新的借款人出现时，一切看似就像棺木的最后一颗钢钉也被敲上。


The IMF seemed condemned to run out of income, in addition to losing its raison d’être .	货币基金组织似乎除了失去其存在的理由，而且因为收入不济而遭受谴责。


It shrank its budgets and began to downsize, and, while it was handed some new responsibilities in the meantime – surveillance over “currency manipulation,” in particular – its deliberations proved largely irrelevant.	该组织将预算缩减，并减小规模，而当新的责任（特别是对“货币操控”执行监控职责）同时赋予给该组织时，其深思熟虑更证明其很大程度上无力胜任。


But the crisis has invigorated the IMF.	但这次的经济危机让其倍受鼓舞。


Under its capable managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Fund has been one of the few official agencies ahead of – instead of behind – the curve.	在其能干的总裁多米尼克•斯特劳斯-卡恩的领导下，国际货币基金组织是世界上少有的走在国际情势之前的官方机构之一，而不是落后与国际情势。


It moved quickly to establish a fast-disbursing emergency line of credit for countries with “reasonable” policies.	它行动快速地为那些采取“合情”政策的国家建立了迅捷支付的信贷急救最高限额；


It ardently championed global fiscal stimulus on the order of 2% of world GNP – a position that is all the more remarkable in view of its traditional conservatism on all fiscal matters.	它热切地支持以世界国民生产总值2%来进行全球范围内的财政刺激——考虑到该组织以往在所有财政问题上的保守态度，这种姿态是有些非同寻常的。


And, in the run-up to the G-20 summit in London, it thoroughly overhauled its lending policies, de-emphasizing traditional conditionality and making it easier for countries to qualify for loans.	而且，在伦敦20国首脑会议的预备阶段，该组织彻底地对其贷款政策进行了革新，不再强调一贯执行的制约性，让实行了让各国能容易获得贷款的方法。


Even more significantly, the IMF has emerged from the London meeting with substantially greater resources, as well as new responsibilities.	意义更为重大的是，国际货币基金组织在伦敦会议上体面登场，带来了更多更充足的资源，以及表明了自己新的责任。


The G-20 promised to triple the Fund’s lending capacity (from $250 billion to $750 billion), issue $250 billion of new Special Drawing Rights (a reserve asset made up of a basket of major currencies), and permit the Fund to borrow in capital markets (which it has never done) if necessary.	20国首脑会议承诺要把基金组织的贷款能力翻两倍（从2500亿美元到7500亿美元），发行了价值2500亿美元的新特别提款权（一种由多国货币组成的储备资产），并允许货币基金组织在必要的情况下在资本市场中进行贷款（这在以前从未实行过）。


The IMF was also designated as one of two lead agencies – along with an expanded Financial Stability Forum (now renamed the Financial Stability Board) – charged with providing early warning of macroeconomic and financial risks and issuing the requisite policy recommendations.	货币基金组织同样被指定成为两个权威机构之一（另一个是扩大化的财经稳定论坛，现已改名为财经稳定理事会），其职责是为宏观经济与财政风险提供预警报告，并发表必须的政策执行提议。


Another piece of good news is that the Europeans have now given up their claim on naming the IMF’s managing director (as have the Americans their corresponding claim on the World Bank presidency).	另一个好消息是，欧洲各国现在已经放弃他们对重新任命货币基金组织总裁的声明（正如美国人对世界银行主席的相关声明）。


These senior officials are henceforth to be selected “through an open, transparent, and merit-based selection process.”	今后，这些高级官员要“通过一种公开、透明与优良品质为先的选举程序”进行选拔。


This will provide for better governance (although Strauss-Kahn’s leadership has been exemplary), and will enhance both institutions’ legitimacy in the eyes of developing nations.	这样能让该组织更好地实行管理（尽管斯特劳斯-卡恩的领导力堪称典范），并将提高两大权威机构在发展中国家心目中的合法性。


So the IMF now finds itself at the center of the economic universe once again.	因此，货币基金组织现在感觉自己再次身处经济大宇宙的环境中。


How will it choose to deploy its newfound power?	它将如何部署其新发现的权力呢？


The greatest risk is that it will once again over-reach and over-play its hand.	其面临的最大的危险是，它将再次将其权力与能力发挥到极致。


That is what happened in the second half of the 1990’s, as the IMF began to preach capital-account liberalization, applied over-stringent fiscal remedies during the Asian financial crisis, and single-handedly tried to reshape Asian economies.	这是在1995年发生的事情，当时货币基金组织开始鼓吹资本性账户的自由化，在亚洲金融危机时候实行过度紧缩银根的财政拯救方案，并试图单枪匹马的扭转亚洲经济。


The institution has since acknowledged its errors in all these areas.	自那之后，货币基金组织就承认在所有这些领域所犯下的错误。


But it remains to be seen if the lessons have been fully internalized, and whether we will have a kinder, gentler IMF in lieu of a rigid, doctrinaire one.	但现在仍需观察，它是否在组织内部完全领悟了这些教训，以及我们时候需要一个态度更友好、性情更温和的货币基金组织，来替代先前那个强硬与教条化的组织。


One encouraging fact is that developing countries will almost certainly get a larger say in how the Fund is run.	一个颇为鼓舞人的事实是，发展中国家将几乎肯定能在货币基金组织如何运营上获得更大的发言权。


This will ensure that poorer nations’ views receive a more sympathetic hearing in the future.	这将确保稍为贫穷的国家的观点能在将来得到更多的赞同。


But simply giving developing nations greater voting power will make little difference if the IMF’s organizational culture is not changed as well.	但如果国际货币基金组织的组织文化未能得到改变，那么仅仅给予发展中国家更大的投选权力也就没有多大的用处。


The Fund is staffed by a large number of smart economists, who lack much connection to (and appreciation for) the institutional realities of the countries on which they work.	货币基金组织的职员是由很大一批精明的经济学家们组成的，他们所缺乏的是未能过多地去了解并正确评价他们所研究的国家的制度的实际情况。


Their professional expertise is validated by the quality of their advanced degrees, rather than by their achievements in practical policymaking.	他们的专业素质靠的是其高等学历，而不是由其在实际的政策决策中的成就来决定的。


This breeds arrogance and a sense of smug superiority over their counterparts – policymakers who must balance multiple, complicated agendas.	这样就滋生出了的傲慢情怀与自鸣得意的优越感，超越了其同行——那些必须在多重的复杂日程中权衡一切的决策者。


Countering this will require proactive efforts by the IMF’s top leadership in recruitment, staffing, and promotion.	要解决这些问题就需要货币基金组织的最高领导层在各方面采取主动攻势，如招募人才、员工管理与职位晋升方面。


One option would be to increase substantially the number of mid-career recruits with actual practical experience in developing countries.	一种解决方案可以是，充分增加在发展中国家拥有实际经验的中等职业生涯的员工数量。


This would make the IMF staff more cognizant of the value of local knowledge relative to theoretical expertise.	相对于理论上的知识，这样就能让货币基金组织的员工能更为认知本土知识。


Another strategy would be to relocate some of the staff, including those in functional departments, to “regional offices” in the field.	另一种策略是重新配置整体员工，让他们参与实地的“区域工作”，包括那些供职于执行部门的员工。


This move would likely face considerable resistance from staff who have gotten used to the perks of Washington, DC.	对于那些习惯于在华盛顿整日趾高气昂的员工而言，这种措施可能会遇到相当程度的反抗。


But there is no better way to appreciate the role of context than to live in it.	但要正确评估一个地方就必须亲身力行，没有其它更好的方式。


The World Bank, which engaged in a similar decentralization a while back, has become better at serving its clients as a result (without facing difficulties in recruiting top talent).	前不久进行类似分权的世界银行，最终在服务客户上有了好转（没有在招募高级人才上遇到困难）。


This is an important moment for the IMF.	这是货币基金组织一个重要的时刻。


The international community is putting great store in the Fund’s judgment and performance.	国际社团已做好充分的准备等待着货币基金组织的决定与表现。


The Fund will require internal reforms to earn that trust fully.	要完全获得外界的信任，货币基金组织将需要组织内部的改革。


Leveling the Afghan Playing Field	打造平等的阿富汗


NEW YORK – Afghanistan’s security and political situation remains plagued by uncertainty, stemming from the withdrawal of United States and NATO combat troops, the upcoming presidential election, and the stalled peace negotiations with the Taliban.	纽约—阿富汗安全和政治局势仍在受不确定性的困扰，不确定性来自美国和北约战斗部队的撤出、即将到来的总统选举和与塔利班的和平谈判陷入停滞。


Recognizing that continued economic insecurity will exacerbate this perilous situation, the government has announced a new package of economic incentives aimed at attracting foreign direct investment.	阿富汗政府认识到，持续的经济不安全将恶化这一危险局面，因此宣布了新的旨在吸引外国直接投资（FDI）的经济激励计划。


The package includes the provision of land to industrialists at dramatically reduced prices, tax exemptions of up to seven years for factory owners, and low-interest loans of up to ten years for farmers.	该计划包括以极低廉的价格向企业家提供土地、面向工厂主的最长七年的免税、以及面向农民的最长十年的低息贷款。


Such incentives are targeted at foreign investors and the local elite, with the aim of stopping or even reversing capital flight.	这些激励的目标是外国投资者和本地精英，意在阻止甚至扭转资本外逃。


But the new measures ultimately amount to more of the same: a fragmented policy approach that will prove inadequate to solve Afghanistan’s fundamental economic problems.	但新措施最终还是要走上老路：分裂的政策方法将不足以解决阿富汗的根本性经济问题。


In the early stages of the post-war transition, FDI increased rapidly, rising from 1.2% of GDP in 2002 to a peak of 4.3% of GDP in 2005.	在战后转型的早期阶段，FDI快速上升，占GDP之比从2002年的1. 2%上升至2005年的峰值4.


Most of these inflows were directed toward the construction and services sectors – the main drivers of GDP growth – and aimed to satisfy international demand, both civilian and military.	3%。 这些流入中的大头进入了建筑和服务业——它们也是GDP增长的主要引擎——其目的是为了满足国际民用和军用需求。


But, in 2006-2007, FDI levels began to fall, owing to a sharply deteriorating security situation, a continued lack of electricity and adequate infrastructure, a shortage of skilled labor, inadequate legal and regulatory systems, inefficient bureaucratic procedures, and the need to renew companies’ licenses annually.	但是在2006—2007年，FDI水平开始下降，原因是安全局势迅速恶化、电力和基础设施持续不足、高技能劳动力短缺、法律和监管系统不完善、官僚流程效率低下、以及企业每年都需要更新执照。


Land grabs, chronic corruption, impunity, the inability to enforce contracts, and the fragmentation and ineffectiveness of aid deterred foreign and domestic investment further.	土地掠夺、顽固腐败、逍遥法外、无法强制实施合同以及援助的分散和低效进一步拖累了外国和国内投资，结果，2011—2012年，每年FDI占GDP之比下降至0.


As a result, FDI collapsed to less than 0.5% of GDP annually in 2011-2012.	5%。


Moreover, in the effort to develop two of the world’s largest mines, investors’ greed prevailed over their security and business-climate concerns.	此外，在开发世界最大矿藏之二的过程中，投资者的贪婪战胜了对安全和商业气候的担忧。


In 2007, the Metallurgical Corporation of China won the concession for the Aynak copper deposit in Logar Province.	2007年，中冶集团拿下了洛加尔省艾纳克（Aynak）铜矿的开采许可。


In 2011, a group of Indian state and private companies won the concession for the Hajigak iron-ore deposit in Bamyan Province.	2007年，印度国有和私人企业组团拿下了巴米扬省哈吉加克（Hajigak）铁矿。


But, despite these projects’ reported billion-dollar price tags and high expectations, the investments have catalyzed little progress, owing partly to security issues.	但是，尽管这些项目都报出了数十亿美元的价格、被寄予厚望，可投资并没有带来多少进步，部分原因还在于安全问题。


Worse, the mines’ displacement of residents, underpayment of workers, and environmental damage have generated resentment in local communities, which is likely to grow in the future.	更糟糕的是，居民流离失所、工人工资克扣和环境损害已经引起了本地社区的抵触情绪，未来可能还会进一步升高。


After all, the granting of mineral resources to foreigners reduces – and could even eliminate – their benefits for local people.	毕竟，把矿产资源给外国人损害甚至完全抹杀了它们给本地人带来的好处。


As it stands, Afghanistan’s economy is a house of cards.	由此看来，阿富汗经济就像是纸牌堆成的房子。


Aid levels are comparable to GDP, with donors covering roughly two-thirds of government expenditure and the entire current-account deficit, which amounts to 40% of GDP.	援助水平堪与GDP相比，捐款覆盖了政府支出的约三分之二和所有经常项目赤字（占GDP的40%）。


But aid is falling and expected to drop sharply after 2014.	但援助正在减少，并且预计将在2014年后大幅减少。


Rather than continuing to pursue piecemeal measures like those that it has just approved, the government needs to implement an integrated and targeted strategy for the reactivation of investment, employment, and trade.	政府不应该继续追求碎片化的措施（如刚刚批准的这些），而是需要实施综合性的定向战略，重新激活投资、就业和贸易。


Indeed, a drastic shift in policy is essential to avoid economic collapse.	事实上，政策的重大转向已是避免经济崩溃的必要条件。


In order to reduce the risks associated with investing in Afghanistan, the government must create a system that benefits local communities and foreign investors alike.	为了减少投资阿富汗的相关风险，政府必须建立有利于本地社区和外国投资者的制度。


This can be achieved with a strategy based on two distinct but mutually beneficial “reconstruction zones”: an export-oriented zone (ERZ) and a local-production zone (LRZ).	这可以通过基于两大不同但互惠的“复兴区”（reconstruction zone）的战略实现：出口导向区（ERZ）和地方生产区（LRZ）。


The ERZ, focused exclusively on producing goods for export, would provide tax incentives, basic infrastructure and services, security, and a stable legal framework to investors.	出口导向区只专注于生产出口品，它应该投资者提供税收激励、基本基础设施和服务、安全以及稳定的法律框架。


In exchange, investors would commit to train local workers, create employment by purchasing local inputs and services, improve corporate practices and local providers’ standards, facilitate technology transfers, and establish links with local technical schools and universities.	作为交换，投资者应该承诺培训本地员工、通过采购本地原料和服务创造就业、改善公司行为和本地供应商标准、协助技术转移，并建立与本地技术学校和大学的联系。


The LRZ would enable local people to improve their livelihoods though the production of agricultural goods, the efficient delivery of services, and light manufacturing.	本地生产区应该通过农产品生产、提供高效服务和轻型制造业让本地人民改善生活。


Such a scheme would also help to bolster gender equality by providing a level playing field for all Afghans in terms of security, social services, infrastructure, credit, and inputs (such as seeds, fertilizers, and agricultural machinery).	这一机制还应该为所有阿富汗人提供安全、社会服务、基础设施、信用和投入品（比如种子、肥料和农用机械）方面的平等待遇，从而增进性别平等。


Moreover, it would boost food supplies and reduce Afghanistan’s exorbitant dependence on imports.	此外，它还应该提高食物供给、减轻阿富汗过度的进口依赖。


By focusing exclusively on foreigners and domestic elites for investment, Afghanistan is missing out on the vast potential of micro-entrepreneurs and small businesses to contribute to steady GDP growth.	完全专注于外国人和本地精英投资的阿富汗错失了微小企业在稳定GDP增长方面的潜力。


Achieving long-overdue peace and stability will be impossible without them.	实现姗姗来迟的和平与稳定离不开它们。


An Inconvenient Peace Prize	令人感到为难的和平奖


This year’s Nobel Peace Prize justly rewards the thousands of scientists of the United Nations Climate Change Panel (the IPCC).	今年的诺贝尔和平奖被公正地授予联合国政府间气候变化专家小组（IPCC）数以千计的科学家。


These scientists are engaged in excellent, painstaking work that establishes exactly what the world should expect from climate change.	这些科学家从事着艰苦卓绝的工作以确定气候变化将给世界造成的确切影响。


The other award winner, former US Vice President Al Gore, has spent much more time telling us what to fear.	另一位获奖者，美国前总统戈尔，花了许多时间来告诉我们应该担心的问题。


While the IPCC’s estimates and conclusions are grounded in careful study, Gore doesn’t seem to be similarly restrained.	联合国政府间气候变化专家小组的预计和结论是以认真的研究为基础的，而戈尔似乎并没有受到类似的限制。


Gore told the world in his Academy Award-winning movie (recently labeled “one-sided” and containing “scientific errors” by a British judge) to expect 20-foot sea-level rises over this century.	戈尔在他赢得奥斯卡奖的电影（这部电影最近被一位英国法官认定为是“片面”和包含“科学谬误”的）里告诉世界说在本世纪海平面将会上升20英尺。


He ignores the findings of his Nobel co-winners, the IPCC, who conclude that sea levels will rise between only a half-foot and two feet over this century, with their best expectation being about one foot.	他显然没有注意到与他共同获得诺贝尔奖的联合国政府间气候变化专家小组的发现，他们得出结论本世纪海平面的上升幅度只会在半英尺到两英尺左右，而他们预计最后的幅度应该在一英尺左右。


That’s similar to what the world experienced over the past 150 years.	这一幅度与世界在过去150年间所经历的上升幅度相近。


Likewise, Gore agonizes over the accelerated melting of ice in Greenland and what it means for the planet, but overlooks the IPCC’s conclusion that, if sustained, the current rate of melting would add just three inches to the sea level rise by the end of the century.	同样地，戈尔为格陵兰岛冰层的加速融化以及它将给地球带来的后果而感到忧心忡忡，但是却忽略了联合国政府间气候变化专家小组得出的结论，即如果保持现在的融化速度，到本世纪末海平面只会因此而上升3英寸。


Gore also takes no notice of research showing that Greenland’s temperatures were higher in 1941 than they are today.	戈尔显然也没注意到研究显示格陵兰岛1941年的温度要比今天高。


Gore also frets about the future of polar bears.	戈尔还很担心北极熊未来的生存。


He claims they are drowning as their icy habitat disappears.	他声称它们因为在冰层上的栖息地的消失而淹死。


However, the only scientific study showing any such thing indicates that four polar bears drowned because of a storm.	然而，对这种状况进行的唯一科学研究显示四头北极熊是因为一场暴风雪而淹死的。


The politician-turned-movie maker loses sleep over a predicted rise in heat-related deaths.	这个由政治家摇身一变为电影制作人的人因为有预计说因为天气炎热而死亡的人数将会增加而辗转反侧。


There’s another side of the story that’s inconvenient to mention: rising temperatures will reduce the number of cold spells, which are a much bigger killer than heat.	这个故事的另一面说起来让人感到很为难：上升的温度将会减少寒冷天气的天数，而后者是一个比炎热大得多的杀手。


The best study shows that by 2050, heat will claim 400,000 more lives, but 1.8 million fewer will die because of cold.	可靠的研究显示，到2050年，气候炎热将夺去40万人的生命，但是因为寒冷而死亡的人数将会减少180万人。


Indeed, according to the first complete survey of the economic effects of climate change for the world, global warming will actually save lives.	事实上，根据对气候变化对世界所产生的经济影响的首次全面调查显示，全球变暖实际上将会 挽救 人们的生命。


The IPCC has magnanimously declared that it would have been happy if Gore had received the Nobel Peace prize alone.	联合国政府间气候变化专家小组宽宏大量地表示如果戈尔单独获得诺贝尔和平奖它将感到很高兴。


I am glad that he did not, and that the IPCC’s work has rightfully been acknowledged.	我很高兴他没有，而联合国政府间气候变化专家小组的工作得到了公正的认可。


Gore has helped the world to worry.	戈尔帮助世界产生担忧。


Unfortunately, our attention is diverted from where it matters.	不幸的是，我们的注意力被从真正重要的事情上分散开了。


Climate change is not the only problem facing the globe.	气候变化并不是今天全球面临的唯一难题。


Our blinkered focus on it – to the detriment of other planetary challenges – will only be heightened by the attention generated by Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize.	我们目光短浅地只把注意力集中在这个问题上而对地球面临的其他挑战很少关注，将会因为戈尔获得诺贝尔和平奖所引发的关注而进一步加剧这种状况。


Gore concentrates above all else on his call for world leaders to cut CO2 emissions, yet there are other policies that would do much more for the planet.	戈尔强烈呼吁世界各国领导人减少二氧化碳的排放量，然而还有其他政策可以给这个星球做更多事情。


Over the coming century, developing nations will be increasingly dependent on food imports from developed countries.	在本世纪接下来的年份里，发展中国家将会越来越依赖于从发达国家进口食品。


This is not primarily a result of global warming, but a consequence of more people and less arable land in the developing world.	这主要并不是全球变暖所带来的结果，而是发展中国家人口更多、耕地却越来越少所带来的后果。


The number of hungry people depends much less on climate than on demographics and income.	挨饿人群的数目更多地是与人口和收入而不是气候相关。


Extremely expensive cuts in carbon emissions could mean more malnourished people.	为了减少碳排放量而耗费巨资可能会带来更多营养不良的人群。


If our goal is to fight malnutrition, policies like getting nutrients to those who need them are 5,000 times more effective at saving lives than spending billions of dollars cutting carbon emissions.	如果我们的目标是要对抗营养不良，那么给那些需要的人增加营养在挽救生命上比花几十亿美元减少碳排放量要有效5000倍。


Likewise, global warming will probably slightly increase malaria, but CO2 reductions will be far less effective at fighting this disease than mosquito nets and medication, which can cheaply save 850,000 lives every year.	同样地，全球变暖可能略微增加疟疾的发病率，但是减少二氧化碳的排放量在对抗这��疾病上远没有蚊帐和药物那么有效，靠这些东西每年可以花很小的代价挽救85万人的生命。


By contrast, the expensive Kyoto Protocol will prevent just 1,400 deaths from malaria each year.	与之相对比，京都议定书每年只能防止1400人死于疟疾。


While we worry about the far-off effects of climate change, we do nothing to deal with issues facing the planet today. This year, malnutrition will kill almost four million people.	当我们在担心气候变化将会在遥远未来所带来的影响时，却对地球今天所面临的问题碌碌无为。


Two and a half million people will die because of indoor and outdoor air pollution. A lack of micronutrients and clean drinking water will claim two million lives each.	今年，大约会有400万人死于营养不良，300万人死于艾滋病，250万人死于室内和室外的空气污染，而缺乏微量营养素和干净的饮用水又将分别夺去250万人的生命。


With attention and money in scarce supply, what matters is that we first tackle the problems with the best solutions, doing the most good throughout the century.	鉴于注意力和金钱的投入都是有限的，我们首要应该做的是用最佳的方案解决问题，并且在整个世纪中尽量做最正确的事情。


If we focus on solving today’s problems, we will leave communities strengthened, economies more vibrant, and infrastructures more robust.	如果我们把注意力集中在解决今天的问题，我们将使社会得到加强、经济更有活力并且基础设施更加发达。


This will enable these societies to deal much better with future problems – including global warming.	那将会使这些行业能够更好地应对未来的问题，包括全球变暖。


Committing to massive cuts in carbon emissions will leave future generations poorer and less able to adapt to challenges.	致力于大规模减少碳排放量只会使我们的后代更加贫困，并且缺乏能力去适应挑战。


Gore has an unshakable faith that climate change is the biggest challenge facing the world.	戈尔坚定不移地认为气候变化是世界所面临的最大挑战。


To be fair, he deserves some form of recognition for his resolute passion.	公平地说，他应该为他的坚定信念而得到某种形式的肯定。


However, the contrast between this year’s Nobel winners could not be sharper.	然而，没有比今年诺贝尔奖的获奖者之间的反差更强烈的了。


The IPCC engages in meticulous research where facts rule over everything else.	联合国政府间气候变化专家小组坚信事实胜于一切，而从事着一丝不苟的研究。


Gore has a very different approach.	而戈尔采取的是完全不同的方式。


An India-Pakistan Diplomatic Test Match	一次测试印巴外交的比赛


LAHORE – In 2005, during a visit to Islamabad, I met Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and told him of a conversation I had had with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India.	发自拉合尔——在2005年对伊斯兰堡的访问中，我遇见了时任巴基斯坦总统的穆沙拉夫并向他转述了我和印度总理辛格之间的一段对话。


The Indian leader, whom I have known for years, had said that he wanted better relations with Pakistan as one his legacies.	辛格这位与我相识多年的印度领导人在对话中提到，希望将更良好的印巴关系作为政治遗产传与后人


Musharraf’s response was interesting.	穆沙拉夫对此的反应十分有趣。


He said he had the same aspiration, but that it would need effort from both sides to move things along.	他说他也有同样的意愿，但这需要双方共同努力才能更进一步。


“I have invited Manmohan a half-dozen times to visit Pakistan. I have also offered to take him to his village near Chakwal, a few miles south of Islamabad, where he was born.	“我已经不下五六次邀请辛格访问巴基斯坦，也提出过要带他回到自己的出生地，位于伊斯兰堡南面数里外察瓜尔（Chakwal）的一个小村庄，但他却一再推辞。


But he continues to demur,” he told me.	”


I repeated the conversation to Singh, who explained that in a democracy such as India, a great deal of work needs to be done with the members of the coalition and the senior bureaucracy before the prime minister can travel to Pakistan. “Musharraf is a military leader; he needs only to pack his bags and head this way.”	我又把穆沙拉夫的回应转述给了辛格听，辛格对此的解释是在一个像印度这样的民主政体中，总理访问巴基斯坦必须与执政联盟成员以及高级官员反复磋商，而相反“穆沙拉夫是个军事领导人，他只需要收拾好行装便可过来印度了。


Musharraf did head that way a few months later, when he forced an invitation out of Singh to watch a cricket match between the two sides in New Delhi in 2005.	而穆沙拉夫也确实在几个月后踏上了访印行程。


It took the Indian government some time to formulate an answer to Musharraf’s request for a visit.	当时他迫使辛格发出了一份邀请，请他出席观看2005年在新德里举行的一场印巴两国板球赛，印度政府花了相当长的时间才研究出如何回应穆沙拉夫的访印要求。


When it came, it carried Singh’s characteristic warmth.	而当这一回应最终公布时，则充盈着典型的辛格式热情。


At the end of a speech in the Lok Sabah, the lower house of India’s parliament, Singh issued his formal invitation. “How nice it would be to conduct our affairs in this august House with the same spirit of sportsmanship that our cricketers exhibit on the playing fields of the sub-continent,” he said.	在对印度人民院（Lok Sabah，即议会下议院）一次演讲的末尾，辛格发出了他的正式邀请：“能秉承着与我国板球运动员在（南亚）次大陆运动场上一样的体育精神在议会这一庄严殿堂共商国是，是多么美好的一件事啊！


“I am happy to inform the honorable members of this House that I have decided to invite President Musharraf to come to India to watch the cricket match between our two teams.	”他接着说：“我很高兴地告知各位尊敬的议员，我决定邀请巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫来印观看两国之间的板球赛事。


It is my earnest desire that the people in our neighborly countries and their leaders should feel free to visit each other whenever they wish to do so.	我最诚挚的愿望莫过于邻邦的人民及其领导人能随心所欲地访问我们。


Be it to watch a cricket match; be it do some shopping; be it to meet friends and families – India is proud to be an open society, an open economy.	无论是观看一场板球赛事，还是购物，或是探亲访友——印度为自身社会和经济的开放而感到自豪。


I do hope that President Musharraf and his family will enjoy their visit to our country.”	我衷心希望穆沙拉夫总统以及家人印度之行愉快。 ”


The prime minister’s statement was received with cheers, not the jeers that some of his aides had feared.	辛格的助手原本担心这番声明会引来嘘声，谁知现场却一片欢呼。


Musharraf went to Ferozeshah Kotala cricket ground in Delhi and saw his team win the match.	穆沙拉夫最终亲临德里的Ferozeshah Kotala板球场并见证了巴基斯坦队的胜利。


He and Singh also found time during the game to talk about bilateral relations, and agreed to launch what came to be called the “composite dialogue,” covering eight contentious issues that had soured ties for so long.	他和辛格还借比赛间隙就双边关系交换了意见，并同意启动“综合性对话”来讨论一直影响两国关系的8大争议性事务。


Three years later, a Pakistan-based terrorist group killed more than 160 people in Mumbai, India’s financial capital – and, with them, the diplomatic opening initiated by cricket.	3年之后，一个以巴基斯坦为基地的恐怖分子团队在印度的金融中心孟买大开杀戒，扼杀了超过160条生命——也扼杀了由此次板球比赛所开创的外交局面。


Once again, however, cricket has revived dialogue between the sub-continent’s two nuclear-armed rivals.	但如今板球又再一次激活了南亚次大陆两大核武对手之间的对话。


This time, the initiative came from Singh, who invited his Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, to visit Mohali, near New Delhi, to watch the two countries play the semi-final in the Cricket World Cup. The match was played on March 30, with Pakistan losing narrowly.	不过这次则由辛格首先提出，邀请巴基斯坦总理吉拉尼访问新德里附近的莫哈里（Mohali）并观看两国之间在3月30日举行的板球世界杯半决赛，结果巴基斯坦仅以小比分败北。


On the political side, however, the two countries were not evenly matched.	然而在政治层面，两国却并未实现对等。


Of the troika that currently governs Pakistan – the president, the prime minister, and the chief of staff of the army – it is the prime minister who carries the least amount of authority.	在目前统治巴基斯坦的三巨头（总统，总理以及总参谋长）中总理的权威是最小的。


It was Gilani who sat next to Singh to watch the game; but, ultimately, process, rather than protocol, will determine how bilateral relations move forward.	如今坐在辛格身边观看比赛的是吉拉尼，而最终决定双边关系如何走向的却并非外交礼仪，而是巴基斯坦国内的政治进程。


After the match, Singh said that “India and Pakistan should be working together to find cooperative solutions and need permanent reconciliation to live together in dignity and honor.	赛后辛格提出“印度和巴基斯坦应当携手努力寻求合作方案，并需要实现永久性的和解以确保两国能有尊严地共存。


We should put our ancient animosities behind us to attend to the problems our two nations face.”	我们应当将过去的仇恨放在一边，合力应对两国所遭遇的难题。


Gilani expressed the same sentiment: “We need to focus on dealing with our common enemies – inflation, poverty, hunger, disease, and unemployment – for the prosperity of the two countries.”	”吉拉尼也表达了同样的观点：“我们需要将精力集中在应对共同的敌人——通胀、贫穷、饥饿，疾病和失业——并以此实现两国的繁荣。 ”


There have been indications of a gradual thaw.	如今已经出现了一些双边关系逐渐解冻的迹象。


Senior officials from the ministries of commerce, defense, and foreign affairs will meet in the next two months followed by a meeting of the foreign ministers.	两国商务，国防和外交等部门的高级官员将在外交部长会谈的两个月后举行会面。


Gilani invited Singh to visit Pakistan, an invitation that “will be considered carefully,” according to Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao. And she spoke of a new environment: “Today, it is the Mohali spirit that pervades our relationship.	吉拉尼也邀请辛格访问巴基斯坦，而印度外交部秘书拉奥琦女士则回应将“认���考虑这一邀请”并提出了一个新的会谈氛围：“今天，弥漫在两国关系四周的是莫哈里的精神。


This was an extremely positive and encouraging spirit that has been generated as a result of today’s meetings.”	而这是一个由今日这场会面所创造出来的非常积极而且鼓舞人心的精神。 ”


We have been here before, of course, only to see prospects for improved India-Pakistan relations snuffed out.	我们曾经也走到过这一步，最后却眼睁睁地看着改善印巴关系的前景毁于一旦。


There are no guarantees that this time will be different. But, for both countries, hope dies last.	没人能保证这次能与上次不同，但对印巴两国来说，希望永远不灭。


An Inequality Tax	不平衡的重负


The economic booms in China and India have helped to reduce global inequality.	中国和印度的经济繁荣有助于减轻全球的不平衡。


Over the two last decades, masses of Indians and Chinese have closed the gap (in relative terms) with the rich world.	在过去的二十年里，印度人和中国人缩小了他们与富裕国家的差距（相对而言）。


But, at the same time, many of the world’s truly poor countries have fallen further behind (particularly in Africa, where developments are often described as catastrophic), and inequality within most countries has risen.	但同时，许多世界上真正贫穷的国家变得更为落后（特别是在发展常常被形容为灾难的非洲），并且大多数国家内部的不平衡变得更为严重。


Widening inequality has been recorded in the United States (starting with Ronald Reagan’s administration), the United Kingdom (starting with Margaret Thatcher), Russia during its privatization, and more recently in China and India.	日益扩大的不平衡在美国（自里根政府时期开始）、英国（自撒切尔政府时期开始）都有记录，它还出现在俄罗斯的私有化进程中，最近更是表现在中国和印度。


These developments seem to add to global inequality.	这些情况似乎加剧了全球的不平衡。


So, on balance, it seems that global inequality has been relatively stable during the last two decades.	因此，从总体上讲，全球的不平衡状况在过去的20年里似乎保持了相对的稳定。


Should anything be done about this?	我们应该对此采取相应的举措吗？


Many think that no global action to fight economic inequality is necessary.	许多人认为采取全球性的行动应对经济不平衡是没有必要的。


They argue that only poverty reduction matters.	他们认为只有扶贫才是正道。


In the words of Anne Krueger, the Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, “Poor people are desperate to improve their material conditions…rather than to march up the income distribution [ladder].”	按国际货币基金组织（IMF）副总裁Anne Krueger的话来说，“穷人们正迫不及待地要改善物质条件……而不是在收入分配的层级上大步向前。 ”


Thus, even if the absolute income gap between an average American and an average African increases, why worry?	因此，就算是美国和非洲人均收入的差距仍在扩大，又有什么可担心的呢？


After all, such people argue, the average African would be a bit less poor.	毕竟，持这种观点的人会说，普通非洲人的贫困状况有所改善。


But this assumes that our income relative to the income of others does not matter.	但这种观点假定我们与他人比较的相对收入无关紧要。


On the contrary, psychological studies invariably show that people care not only about their absolute income, but also about where they stand in the social pyramid and whether their position is fair.	相反，心理学研究无一例外地表明人们并不只是看重他们的绝对收入，也看重他们在社会金字塔上的位置以及这一位置是否公平。


In the past, a poor African might have looked at his compatriots and resented their wealth; now, both he and his better-off compatriots look at the rich world and resent the huge income gaps they see.	过去，一个贫穷的非洲人可能会以憎恶的眼光来看待其同胞的财富； 现在，他和比他富有的同胞都以憎恶的眼光来看待他们和富裕世界之间的收入差距。


The gaps are most obvious where people from different countries work together, as in many multinational companies.	在不同国籍的人一起工作的情况下，正如在许多跨国公司里，这样的差距表现得更为明显。


An “expatriate” may be paid ten times more than local staff for the same job.	一位“外籍员工”的薪水可能是从事同样工作的本地员工的10倍。


A wage premium based solely on citizenship is grating.	仅仅以国籍为基准的工资津贴令人反感。


But even when people do not work together, globalization, by bringing the world to everyone’s living room (or hut), enables them to make much wider comparisons of their living standards.	但就算人们不共事，将世界带入每个人的起居室（或茅舍）的全球化，也使他们能够将自己的生活水平进行更为广泛的比较。


It erodes the relative security in which the rich world could shelter itself, as in a cocoon.	这样一来就捅破了富裕世界籍以藏身的那只相对安全的茧。


Now, all can see these income differences.	现在，这些收入差距昭然若揭。


This is why international action to address both global poverty and global inequality is needed.	这就是为什么需要采取国际性的行动同时应对全球贫穷和全球不平衡的原因。


Global redistribution through taxes that would be levied by an international body may seem far-fetched today, but the logic of development that we are witnessing – particularly the move away from nation-states as the locus of sovereignty – suggests that it may eventually come to pass.	由一个国际机构通过税收来实行全球性再分配的理念今天看起来似乎是天方夜谭。 但我们所见证的发展逻辑—特别是民族国家作为主权载体的式微—意味着这一理想可能最终成为现实。


One such opportunity was missed in the early 1990’s.	我们在1990年代早期错过了一个这样的机会。


When Russia faced its worst crisis, aid was given to the corrupt Yeltsin regime.	当俄罗斯遭遇其最严重的危机时，经济援助却被给予了腐败的叶利钦政权。


But it should have been disbursed directly in cash to the most needy Russians: pensioners whose earnings plummeted due to inflation and economic contraction.	但它本应该以现金的形式直接支付给最需要帮助的俄罗斯人：由于通货膨胀和经济紧缩而收入锐减的退休金一族。


An international organization could have simply used the existing infrastructure of the Russian state to distribute cash grants to some 20 million pensioners – money that would have been much better targeted and spent than by giving the same amount to the government.	一个国际组织本可以通过俄罗斯国家现成的基础设施将现金补助分配给2000万左右靠退休金生活的人—比起交给俄罗斯政府处置，这笔钱本应该被更有的放矢地使用。


If this had been done, Russians would have fondly remembered receiving cash aid from the international community rather than blaming it for transferring funds to corrupt leaders.	如果当时这样做了，俄罗斯人本可以将从国际社会获得现金援助的经历珍藏在记忆之中，而不是责怪后者将资金转给了腐败的领导人。


But the same or a similar approach could be taken in many countries today, from Angola to Zimbabwe.	然而，同样或类似的举措本可以在从安哥拉到津巴布韦的许多国家施行。


The approach is simple and powerful.	这种举措是简单而有力的。


It involves three steps: raise money from the globally rich, do not deal with governments, and transfers funds in cash to the poor.	它包括三个步骤：从全球的富人那里募集资金，不要和政府打交道，并直接以现金的形式将资金分配给穷人。


Those who advocate leaving globalization exclusively in the hands of the private sector may resent the idea of vesting tax-raising authority in a global agency.	那些鼓吹仅在私有领域实行全球化的人可能会憎恶将征税的权力赋予一个全球性机构的理念。


But they cannot fail to notice that the processes they support undercut their own position by rendering the wealth gap more obvious and the fairness of the actual global distribution more questionable.	但他们不可能没有注意到自己所支持的进程也损害了他们自身的利益—令财富的差距更为明显，并使实际的全球（财富）分配的公平性更值得怀疑。


They will ultimately realize that their self-interest lies in supporting some form of global action to deal with both poverty and inequality.	他们最终会意识到自身的利益在于支持某种形式的应对全球贫困和不平衡的行动。


An Inflation Reality Check	检讨通货膨胀


CAMBRIDGE – As inflation continues to soar everywhere, maybe the world’s central bankers need a jolt to awaken them from complacency.	剑桥--随着世界各地的通货膨胀攀升，或许各国的中央银行行长们需要当头棒喝才会从自满中清醒过来。


How about holding one of their bi-monthly meetings in hyperinflationary Zimbabwe?	是不是可以把他们每两个月一度的会议放在超级通货膨胀的津巴布韦举办？


It might not be comfortable, but it would be educational.	这可能不大舒服，但是却有教育意义。


According to Zimbabwe’s official statistical agency, inflation topped 66,000% in 2007, which looks more like Weimar Germany than modern-day Africa.	根据津巴布韦官方统计机构的数据，2007年该国的通货膨胀高达66000%，更有点像是魏玛时期的德国，而不是当今的非洲。


While no one is quite certain how the government managed to estimate prices, given that there is virtually nothing for sale in the shops, most indicators suggest that Zimbabwe does have a good shot at breaking world records for inflation.	尽管没有人确切知道政府如何估计价格，但是鉴于商店里空空如也，大多数指标表明津巴布韦确实很有可能打破通货膨胀的世界纪录。


Of course, curious as they might be, central bankers could decide that meeting in Harare would be too inconvenient and politically unpalatable.	当然，尽管各国行长们有点好奇，但是他们还是可以认为在津巴布韦哈拉雷举行会议有可能过于不便而且在政治上让人难受。


Fortunately, there are lots of other nice – albeit less spectacular – inflation destinations.	所幸的是，还有其他许多不错、尽管不是那么引人注目的通货膨胀地点。


Inflation in Russia, Vietnam, Argentina, and Venezuela is solidly in double digits, to name just a few possibilities.	仅仅举几个可能的地点，俄国、越南、阿根廷以及委内瑞拉的通货膨胀都是两位数。


Indeed, except for deflation-ridden Japan, central bankers could meet just about anywhere and see high and rising inflation.	确实，除了受到通货紧缩困扰的日本以外，各国的行长们几乎可以随便在哪里开会都可以发现通货膨胀上升高昂。


Chinese authorities are so worried by their country’s 7% inflation they are copying India and imposing price controls on food.	中国当局对于该国7%的通货膨胀极为担忧，乃至于效仿印度控制食品价格。


Even the United States had inflation at 4% last year, though the Federal Reserve is somehow convinced that most people won’t notice.	即使美国去年的通货膨胀达到4%，美联储不知怎地相信大多数人不会注意。


Many central bankers and economists argue that today’s rising global inflation is just a temporary aberration, driven by soaring prices for food, fuel, and other commodities.	许多行长和经济学家认为当今全球通货膨胀上升只不过是暂时偏离，食品、燃料以及其他商品价格猛升促发了这一现象。


True, prices for many key commodities are up 25% to 50% since the start of the year.	的确，许多主要商品的价格从年初以来已经上升了25%到50%。


But if central bankers think that today’s inflation is simply the product of short-term resource scarcities as opposed to lax monetary policy, they are mistaken.	但是如果行长们认为今天的通货膨胀只不过是短期资源馈乏而不是松弛的货币政策的结果，那么他们就错了。


The fact is that around most of the world, inflation – and eventually inflation expectations – will keep climbing unless central banks start tightening their monetary policies.	事实是在全球大多数地区，通货膨胀并且最终是通货膨胀预期将会继续上升，除非各国中央银行开始紧缩其货币政策。


The US is now ground zero for global inflation.	美国现在是全球通货膨胀的中心地点。


Faced with a vicious combination of collapsing housing prices and imploding credit markets, the Fed has been aggressively cutting interest rates to try to stave off a recession.	美联储面临着房价崩盘以及信贷市场内爆的双重压力，一直大幅度降息以试图避免经济衰退。


But even if the Fed does not admit it in its forecasts, the price of this “insurance policy” will almost certainly be higher inflation down the road, and perhaps for several years.	但是即使如果美联储并不在其预计中承认，这一“保险单”的代价几乎肯定是将来几年中会有更高的通货膨胀。


America’s inflation would be contained but for the fact that so many countries, from the Middle East to Asia, effectively tie their currencies to the dollar.	如果不是如此多、从中东到亚洲的其他国家实际上将它们的货币与美元挂钩，美国的通货膨胀或许会得以控制。


Others, such as Russia and Argentina, do not literally peg to the dollar but nevertheless try to smooth movements.	其他国家，例如俄国和阿根廷并不实际将其货币与美元联系，但是试图让货币波动平缓。


As a result, whenever the Fed cuts interest rates, it puts pressure on the whole “dollar bloc” to follow suit, lest their currencies appreciate as investors seek higher yields.	结果，无论何时美联储降息都让整个“美元区”国家紧随，要不然它们的货币由于投资者寻求高回报而升值。


Looser US monetary policy has thus set the tempo for inflation in a significant chunk – perhaps as much as 60% – of the global economy.	美国松弛的货币政策因此就大幅度确定了全球经济通货膨胀的速度，可能达到60%。


But, with most economies in the Middle East and Asia in much stronger shape than the US and inflation already climbing sharply in most emerging-market countries, aggressive monetary stimulus is the last thing they need right now.	但是，中东和亚洲的大多数国家经济要比美国的更为健康，而大多数新兴市场经济国家的通货膨胀已经大幅度上升，激进的货币刺激是它们最不需要的东西。


The European Central Bank is staying calm for the moment, but it, too, is probably holding back on interest-rate hikes partly out of fear of driving the euro, already at record levels, even higher.	欧洲央行目前保持稳定，但是连它也可能压制提升利率，部分原因是担心已经处于创纪录水平的欧元继续升得更高。


And the ECB worries that if the US recession proves contagious, it may have to turn around and start slashing rates anyway.	而且欧洲央行担心，如果美国的衰退波及他国，它或许不得不转变政策，开始降息。


So what happens next?	那么接下来会发生什么事情呢？


If the US tips from mild recession into deep recession, the global deflationary implications will cancel out some of the inflationary pressures the world is facing.	如果美国的衰退从微弱变成深度，那么全球通货紧缩的影响就会抵销世界面临的某些通货膨胀压力。


Global commodity prices will collapse, and prices for many goods and services will stop rising so quickly as unemployment and excess capacity grow.	全球商品价格将会崩盘，而许多商品和服务价格将会随着失业率和剩余生产能力的增长而停止如此快速上升。


Of course, a US recession will also bring further Fed interest-rate cuts, which will exacerbate problems later.	当然，美国经济衰退将同时会带来进一步的美联储降息。 这将会在后来加剧问题。


But inflation pressures will be even worse if the US recession remains mild and global growth remains solid.	但是如果美国的衰退持续微弱而全球增长保持强劲，那么通货膨胀的压力甚至将会恶化。


In that case, inflation could easily rise to 1980’s (if not quite 1970’s) levels throughout much of the world.	在这一情况下，通货膨胀如果不是达到全世界七十年代的水平，也将会轻而易举地达到八十年代的水平。


Until now, most investors have thought that they would rather risk high inflation for a couple of years than accept even a short and shallow recession.	直到目前，大多数投资者认为他们宁可冒着几年通货膨胀的风险也不接受短暂而轻微的衰退。


But they too easily forget the costs of high inflation, and how difficult it is to squeeze it out of the system.	但是他们还轻易地忘记了高通货膨胀的代价以及把通货膨胀挤出经济体系之外的困难。


Maybe they, too, should try holding a few conferences in Zimbabwe, and get a reality check of their own.	或许他们也应当在津巴布韦举行一次会议来自己检讨一下。


An Intelligent War on Terror	一场反恐怖主义的情报战


Terrorism is an existential threat.	恐怖主义是一个现实存在的威胁。


In our European Security Strategy, it was deemed one of the key strategic threats facing the European Union, and to fight it we are using all instruments at our disposal, particularly in the intelligence area.	在我们的"欧洲安全战略"中，恐怖主义被视为欧盟面临的重要战略性威胁之一。 为了抗击恐怖主义，我们正在使用所有能用的方法，特别是在情报邻域。


The first objective of intelligence is to find terrorists, prevent them from acting, and track them after they do attack.	情报的首要目标是要找到恐怖分子，阻止他们行动，在他们实施袭击后追踪。


This is the kind of operational intelligence that is best done at the national level.	这是军事行动上的情报，最好在国家层面上完成。


Many arrests and disruptions of terrorist operations in Europe result from cooperation between EU members' intelligence services.	欧洲逮捕的许多恐怖分子以及多次挫败恐怖主义行动就是欧盟成员国情报部门合作的结果。


I was recently asked by journalists whether inter-agency cooperation is sufficient and whether European mechanisms for sharing operational intelligence should be created.	最近有记者问我，机构之间的合作是否足够，欧洲是否应该建立共享军事行动情报的机制。


Later that very day, a joint operation resulted in simultaneous arrests in five European countries.	结果当天就有五个欧洲国家在一次联合行动中同时逮捕了多名恐怖分子。


The operation's success was no accident.	这次行动的成功不是偶然。


Last year, the Union concluded two Europol agreements, as well as an Extradition and Mutual Legal Assistance Agreement.	去年，欧盟签署了两项欧洲刑警组织协议，以及一项引渡与司法互助协议。


Europe's security services are working closely together within the Counter-Terrorist Group, and Europol's Counter-Terrorist Task Force has been re-established.	欧洲的安全服务部门在反恐怖主义组织中紧密合作，欧洲刑警组织的反恐怖主义特别小组也已重新建立起来。


A high-level group on border and transport security is at work, and links between member states' police chiefs are strengthening.	一个高层的边境与交通安全组织正在工作，成员国警察局长间的联系也正在加强。


But widespread sharing is not always needed or appropriate.	但是，大范围的共享并不总是必要或适当的。


Member states also need intelligence derived from ongoing casework, not to inform policy, at least not directly, but to disrupt and dismantle networks and prevent attacks.	成员国还需要从正在进行的案件工作中得到的情报，不用给政策的制定提供信息，至少不用直接提供，但是要破坏和解除恐怖主义网络，防止恐怖主义袭击。


This information is in many ways more sensitive, and services share it on a "need to know" basis, not for the sake of promoting cooperation.	这些情报在许多方面都更加敏感，各部门应在"了解"的基础上共享，而不是为了促进合作。


I see another role for intelligence: to inform political action.	我还发现情报的另一个作用：为政治行动提供信息。


Intelligence services can educate the public, explaining the origins of the alienation that underpins terrorism, how radicalization and recruitment occur, and highlight terrorists' goals, methods, and targeting strategies.	情报服务部门可以教育公众，说明恐怖主义下的异化产生的根源，以及激进手段和招募新人的情况，强调恐怖分子的目的、方法和寻找靶子的策略。


Only when we understand this can we develop appropriate and concrete policies.	我们只有了解了这些才能制定出恰当的、具体的政策。


For this we need good strategic assessments of intelligence.	为此，我们需要对情报进行良好的战略评估。


The EU's members have structures to provide this, and with their support and input we are building structures at a Europe-wide level, to bring this information to EU policymakers.	欧盟的成员国国内都有这方面的机制，通过他们的支持和投入，我们正在建设一个全欧洲范围的机制，把这些情报呈现给欧盟的政策制定者们。


Europol is performing a similar function with material derived from police work, and we are working to ensure synergy between these two efforts.	欧盟刑警组织掌握着从警察工作中得来的材料，而我们就要努力确保这两方面的努力得以协调。


This is a different level of intelligence, more analytical, where close collaboration adds significant value.	这是不同层次的情报，更加具有分析性，同时密切的合作会带来更多有价值的东西。


In the aftermath of the Madrid bombings, the EU focused on internal aspects of the fight against terrorism.	马德里爆炸事件之后，欧盟集中精力抗击国内的恐怖主义。


But this does not mean that the Union has become introverted.	但这并不表示欧盟变得只扫自家门前雪。


On the contrary, the EU regards international cooperation as fundamental in the fight against terrorism.	相反，欧盟认为国际合作是抗击恐怖主义的基础。


Generally, counter-terrorism is very high on our international agenda and is becoming better integrated into the Union's political dialogue with other countries.	总的来说，反恐怖主义在我们国际事务中的当务之急，而且日渐融入到欧盟与其他国家的政治对话中。


We are better targeting our external assistance and capacity building programs, and we are ready to use our trade and economic muscle, when necessary, by demanding counter-terrorism clauses in bilateral treaties.	我们正在把国外援助和职能建设计划用在更加适当的地方，并准备好在必要的时候运用我们的贸易和经济力量，在双边协议中要求制定反恐怖主义条款。


There has also been a sea change in transatlantic cooperation between the EU and the US.	欧盟和美国之间的跨大西洋合作也发生了巨变。


Deeds speak louder than words, and deeds on the transatlantic level have been swift and decisive - for example, joint efforts aimed at choking off terrorist financing - even when we had strong divergences over Iraq.	事实胜于雄辩，而欧美之间在这方面发生了迅速和有决定性的事件--例如旨在断绝恐怖分子资金来源的联合努力--尽管我们在伊拉克事件上存在巨大的分歧。


Still, I am not complacent.	然而，我仍不自满。


To facilitate the extremely complex task of counter-terrorism policymaking in the EU, we now have a Plan of Action, approved by the European Council, which clearly specifies who does what, and by when.	为了促进欧盟制定反恐怖主义政策这项极端复杂的任务，我们现在有了一份行动纲领，已得到欧盟理事会的批准，其中清楚地规定了各自的职责，以及时限。


This will also help national parliaments understand EU objectives and facilitate their legislative planning.	这份纲领还将帮助各国的国会理解欧盟的目标，促进他们计划立法的步伐。


I have recently appointed a counter-terrorism coordinator to assist me in following through on the Plan of Action.	我最近任命了一名反恐怖主义协调员帮助我监督这项行动纲领的实施。


We also have a considerable number of new instruments in the area of justice and home affairs.	在司法和内务方面，我们还有大量新的办法。


The European Arrest Warrant is already producing concrete results, and we are moving towards the "free movement of judicial decisions" in the EU, through which judicial decisions - such as arrest and surrender of suspects, confiscation, and freezing of assets - will be mutually recognized.	欧洲逮捕委任状已经产生了具体的结果，我们从而越来越接近欧盟内部"司法决定的自由流动"，通过这种方式，司法决定--如嫌犯的逮捕和引渡、��产的没收和冻结--将得到相互承认。


Furthermore, the European Border Agency will become operational in 2005.	另外，欧洲边境局将于2005年开始工作。


As requested by the European Council, I am developing, in cooperation with the European Commission, a strategy to shut down terrorist financing.	应欧洲理事会的要求，我正在与欧盟执行委员会合作制定断绝恐怖分子财源的战略。


This is where the real test of cooperation lies, for our success will rely on securing the appropriate interaction and flow of intelligence between the relevant services and the financial and banking communities.	这个领域是对合作的真正考验，因为我们的成功将取决于能否在相关部门和金融、银行界之间取得适当的互动和情报流动。


I firmly believe that the military option alone cannot defeat terror.	我坚信，单靠军事行动不能击败恐怖主义。


Judicial, police, and intelligence cooperation should be the focal point for action.	司法、警方、情报部门之间的合作应该是行动的焦点。


This does not mean that we are not working on how European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) can offer a meaningful contribution. But ESDP is not at the core of our efforts.	这不是说我们不管欧洲安全与防务政策（ESDP）能否做出有意义的贡献，而是说ESDP不是我们努力的核心。


Aside from security and intelligence efforts, we must also work to deny "oxygen" to the terrorists. This means addressing the factors that contribute to support for and recruitment by terrorist groups.	除了安全和情报方面的努力外，我们还必须努力断绝恐怖分子的"氧气"，也就是说要处理给恐怖主义集团提供支持和新人的因素。


Regional conflicts cause anger and resentment.	地区的冲突会导致愤怒和排斥情绪。


The unresolved Arab-Israeli problem leads to the rise of radicalism and extremism.	阿拉伯和以色列的问题悬而不决也会引起激进主义和极端主义的抬头。


There is entirely too much fuel for terrorist propaganda.	对于恐怖主义宣传来说，燃料太多了。


The EU will be tough on terrorism. But it must also be tough on the causes of terrorism.	欧盟将坚定地打击恐怖主义，但是也必须坚定地遏制恐怖主义的源头。


These are not two fights, but one.	这不是两场战争，而是一场。


Argentina’s Sovereign Bondage	阿根廷的主权债券困局


WASHINGTON, DC – Sovereign debt has been back in the news recently, this time because of a United States Supreme Court ruling concerning Argentine debt.	发自华盛顿特区——主权债务最近又占据了新闻头条，而这次是因为美国最高法院关于阿根廷债务问题的一项判决。


As a result of the ruling, a complicated issue is likely to become even more so.	在此判决之后，这件本已凌乱的事件将变得更为复杂。


Sovereign debt has been a major feature of the international financial system for centuries.	在几个世纪以来，主权债务一直是国际金融体系统的重要特征。


Kings borrowed, often internationally, to finance wars and other expenditures.	国王们经常向别国借债以支付战争以其他各项支出。


When they couldn’t pay, as sometimes happened, sovereigns defaulted.	但有时候当他们无法还债的时候，就会出现主权违约。


Today, sovereigns are more often democratically elected governments, but they still borrow.	如今，主权国家往往都由民选政府执掌，但它们依然会去借债。


And they still occasionally find themselves in situations in which their debt has become unsustainable and they need outside help to continue to meet their debt-service obligations.	同时也不时发现自己处于无力继续用新债补旧债的状况之下，只得向外界求援以继续承担自身的偿付责任。


When private firms (or subnational governments) become insolvent, there are normally legal bankruptcy procedures to determine what to do.	当私人企业（或者地区政府）无力偿债之时，一般都会进入法律破产程序去决定如此行动。


Without such procedures, a market economy would be unable to function.	没有了这些程序，市场经济就无法运作。


In part, this is because creditors would otherwise stop extending credit and demand repayment at the first sign of trouble.	在某种程度上，这是因为债权人会在问题稍露端倪时就转而停止继续信贷并要求偿还。


This is because the first creditors to be paid would receive the full amount owed to them, leaving less for later creditors – and thus creating an incentive for all creditors to rush for the exits even before debt servicing had become impossible.	这是因为第一个要求偿还的债权人往往能收回全款，而其他人只能部分收回——这也因此产生了一向激励因素，令所有债权人都一窝蜂地要求还债，即便借债人还没失去偿还能力。


Moreover, in many cases, the value of the troubled entity’s assets as a going concern is greater than it would be if the assets were sold separately.	此外，在许多情况下，如果能够继续经营下去，受影响实体的资产价值将比分割出售后更高。


In such cases, all creditors would be better off with a debt write-down than with dissolution.	在这类情况下，最符合全体债权人利益的是减少债务而非整体崩盘。


Bankruptcy law thus protects creditors from each other by preventing an outcome that would needlessly harm all of them.	因此破产法通过防止出现导致所有人受到非必要损害的方式来防止各债权人互相迫害。


In the case of sovereign debt, however, there is no binding international law that permits bankruptcy.	但在主权债务问题上，并不存在可以批准破产的约束性国际法律。


Though some routine practices have emerged as international capital markets have grown, they remain ad hoc.	虽然某些常规做法随着国际资本市场的成长而出现，但依然是临时性的。


Given the uncertainty involved, and that sovereign debtors can repay domestic-currency debt simply by printing money, creditors have typically demanded significantly higher interest rates if bonds are not issued under the law and in the currency of an advanced country – often the United States or the United Kingdom.	考虑到包含于其中的不确定性，以及主权借债人可以通过印钞来偿还用本国货币发行的债务，债权人一般都会要求那些不在法律下发行且不以发达国家（通常为美国或英国）货币发行的债券支付特别高的利息。


When a sovereign decides that its foreign debt is unsustainable, the government and its creditors have had to negotiate among themselves about what to do.	当一个主权国家认定自身的外债已经无法维持，政府和其债权人都必须坐下来商讨应该任何行事。


For sovereign bonds held by other sovereigns, the Paris Club of creditor countries has developed procedures for handling the debt.	对于那些由其他主权国家持有的主权债务，由债权国组建的巴黎俱乐部已经制定出相关程序去处理这类债务。


But when private creditors hold sovereign debt, organizing them creates a new challenge with each episode.	而针对私人债权人所持有主权债务，如何将这些债权人组织起来就引发了一环接一环的挑战。


When debt is unsustainable, there are several possible negotiating outcomes.	当债务无法偿还时，就存在好几种可能的谈判结果。


Sometimes, debt-service payments are rescheduled and perhaps stretched out over a longer period, thus giving the debtor country time to regain its ability to pay.	有时会重新规定偿还日期，或许还能延长到更长的年限，因此也能让债务国重新获得偿还能力。


Sometimes, creditors agree to exchange the old bonds for new ones, which have either a lower face value or lower interest payments.	有时债务国会同意用票面价值或者利率较低的新债来交换旧债。


Few governments refuse to pay at all in any form.	很少政府会完全拒绝以任何形式来偿还借款。


Argentina defaulted on its debt in 2001.	阿根廷在2001年发生过债务违约。


After several difficult years, the country managed to negotiate an exchange of outstanding bonds for bonds with a considerably lower face value. About 93% of creditors accepted the exchange and received new bonds with a face value that was about one-quarter of that of the old bonds.	在艰难维持了数年之后，该国得以谈妥用票面价值相当低的债权来置换无法偿付的债券。


After 2005, Argentina maintained debt service on the new bonds.	在2005年后，阿根廷开始对新债券进行偿付。


But some creditors held out, and sued Argentina in New York (as the bonds were issued under New York law).	但一些债权人不接受这种做法，并在纽约法庭控告阿根廷（因为这些债权都是依照纽约法律发行的）。


Argentine bonds (like most others) had a so-called pari passu clause that committed the government to treat all bondholders alike.	阿根廷债券（和其他大部分债券一样）都拥有一项所谓平等对待条款，承诺政府将平等对待所有债券持有人。


The holdouts claimed that, if the new bonds were being serviced in full (as they were), equal treatment required that the holdouts should receive the full amount owed to them (including not only interest but also principal).	反对者的诉求是，如果新债券都能（像曾经那样）得到全额偿付，同等的待遇也意味着反对者应该收回所有欠款（不仅包括利息，还有本金）。


The US Second Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Argentina was bound to honor its obligations to the holdout bondholders in the same proportion (namely 100%) as the holders of the exchange bonds.	美国第二巡回上诉法院判决阿根廷必须以与同意置换者同样的比例（也就是100%全额）承担对反对者的偿还责任。


It was that ruling that the Supreme Court recently upheld.	美国最高法院最近也维持这一判决。


Under the court order, Argentina may not pay the holders of the new bonds unless it also pays the holdouts, and no US financial institution can serve as an intermediary to make payments for Argentina.	在法院判决之下，阿根廷只能在偿付了反对者的同时才能向新债券的持有者进行偿付，同时也没有美国金融机构能作为为阿根廷进行支付的中间人。


As a result, Argentina must either pay the holdouts in full or default on the new bonds.	因此阿根廷要么全额偿还反对者，要么就只能宣布新债券违约。


Regardless of how the current impasse is resolved, the ruling raises many questions for issuers and holders of sovereign debt.	无论当前的困境最终如何解决，该判决都为主权债券的发行者和持有者提出了许多问题。


If creditors now believe that holding out makes it more likely that they will receive full value at a later date, restructuring sovereign debt and restoring a debtor economy’s normal functioning will be more difficult.	如果持有者如今认定反对置换能令自己更可能在延长时间的情况下全额收回债务，那么就更加难以对主权债务进行重组并令债务国经济重回正轨。


Since the Argentine crisis, most new bonds have been issued with collective action clauses (CACs), under which bondholders are obliged to accept restructuring if a specified share (usually around 70%) agree to it.	在阿根廷危机之后，大多数新债务都在集体行动条款下发行，只要特定比例（一般约70%）的持有者同意债务重整，则所有持有者都要同意。


As time passes, there are fewer and fewer outstanding bonds that do not contain CACs.	随着时间流逝，不包含集体行动条款的未偿付债券将越来越少。


But CACs may not resolve the problem entirely, because a vote would be required for each separate bond issue, and a holdout position could be achieved by buying up the blocking percentage of a small issue.	但该条款并不能解决所有问题，因为每一份债券都包含一个投票权，如果要反对重整，只要收购足够比例的分额就行了。