However, Hong Kong has some distinguishing features, including a very internationally minded and outward-looking government, owing to our close integration into world markets long before globalization became a catchphrase.	但是，香港还有一些与众不同的特色。 如在“全球化”成为流行语之前很久，我们就已经紧密融入了世界市场，因此我们的政府非常善于放眼全球，具有很强的国际化思维。


Within the ranks of our civil service and judiciary are nationals from Britain, Australia, the United States, Canada, and India.	我们的行政人员和司法人员里有不少来自不同国家的外籍人士，如英国、澳大利亚、美国、加拿大和印度。


Moreover, our Court of Final Appeal calls on some of the most esteemed minds of the common-law world.	此外，我们的终审法庭也汇聚了一些来自奉行普通法的国家的精英人士。


We have a large foreign population and one of the world’s largest consular corps.	我们有大量的外籍人口，并拥有全球最大的领事使团。


International chambers of commerce play a very active and vital role in government consultations.	国际工商会在政府咨询方面发挥着重要的积极作用。


Our Basic Law even allows for foreign nationals to be elected to one-fifth of the seats in our legislature.	我们的基本法甚至允许外籍人士通过选举，占有五分之一的议会席位。


Hong Kong’s cosmopolitanism long ago planted the seeds of tolerance and respect in our approach to government.	香港的世界主义早就在我们执政方法里播下了宽容、尊重的种子。


As a result, we are committed to dialogue and compromise as the only way to balance the many competing demands and opinions that pervade public affairs.	其结果是，我们一直致力于以对话和妥协来平衡公共事务里比比皆是的不同要求和观点，并视之为唯一途径。


Good government is not a competition. It’s not about winning or losing, or whose view or will prevails.	善政并非竞争，与输赢无关，也与谁的观点、意志取胜无关。


It is about making the best decisions for the community as a whole.	善政就是为整个社会做出最佳决定。


Inevitably, this will often involve compromise.	如此一来，在很多时候，妥协便不可避免。


Indeed, as Hong Kong’s society has grown more sophisticated, it has also become more complex, multi-faceted, and pluralistic.	事实上，随着香港社会的日益成熟，香港也变得更为复杂，社会更为多元，也更具多样性。


This means that government can no longer afford to view issues in isolation; its operations need to be de-compartmentalized and flattened, as well as streamlined.	这就意味着政府不能再孤立地看待问题。 政府运作需要精简增效、扫平障碍，并消除分工太过琐细的情况。


This is a difficult task, given that some of our systems have been in place for many years, often entrenched in law.	这一任务相当艰巨，因为我们的一些制度已经存在了多年，且多有法律保证。


Of course, pragmatism has its limits, because good government is also about upholding core values.	当然，实用主义也有其局限性，因为善政也意味着坚持核心价值。


I have often referred to what I call the four pillars of Hong Kong’s success: the rule of law, a level playing field for business, a clean and efficient civil service, and the free flow of information.	我经常提到我称之为香港成功的四大支柱：法制、为商业活动提供的公平竞争环境，行政部门廉洁高效，信息流动畅通无阻。


These are values that we simply will not compromise.	对于这些价值，我们决不会妥协。


To do so would mark the beginning of the end for Hong Kong.	这种妥协将标志着香港灭亡的开始。


Since reunification with our motherland, we have the added safeguard of the Basic Law, which gives effect to the principles of “one country, two systems” and “Hong Kong’s people running Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy.”	回归祖国后，我们又多了基本法的保障。 基本法赋予了“一国两制”原则和“香港高度自治”原则法律效力。


Good government also requires sharing a vision of the future – the purposes and thinking behind public policies – with the community.	善政还要求与公众分享政府对未来的展望，这是公共政策背后的目的和思路。


Our vision is to develop Hong Kong as Asia’s world city.	我们对未来的展望是使香港发展成为亚洲的国际都会。


This is an all-encompassing brief, covering everything we do as a community and an economy in areas ranging from international trade to art, culture, and tourism.	亚洲国际都会这一简短提法无所不包，涵盖了我们从事的各种公众事务和经济活动，包括了从国际贸易到艺术、文化、旅游业等的各个领域。


The Basic Law embodies this vision, laying the foundations for our development over a 50-year period and providing the freedom and the power for us to position ourselves as Asia’s world city – and to do it on our own.	基本法体现了我们对未来的这一展望，为香港未来50年的发展奠定了基础，并赋予了我们自由与力量，使我们能够自力更生地将香港建设成为亚洲的国际都会。


At the same time, it also embodies the depth of the central government’s support for Hong Kong.	同时，基本法还体现了中央政府对香港的大力支持。


It is thus crucial to the good governance of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region.	因此，基本法对管理好香港特别行政区至关重要。


In many areas – financial services, infrastructure, communications technology, and tourism – I would say we have reached our goals for Hong Kong.	应该说，在很多领域，如金融服务、基础设施、通信技术、旅游业方面，我们香港都已经达到了自己的目标。


Hardly a day goes by when we don’t read something in the local press that refers to our status as Asia’s world city.	几乎每天我们都可以在地方报纸上读到有关香港作为亚洲国际都会方面的报道。


Even when people feel we have not lived up to the standards expected of a world city, we are glad to be held to a high benchmark, because it keeps us on our toes.	即使别人觉得我们还没有达到国际都会应具备的标准，我们也应该为人们对我们的高标准要求感到高兴，因为这样可以让我们一直保持高度警觉。


That may sound disingenuous to some, but Hong Kong’s officials share a common mission to maintain the stability and prosperity of our city.	也许有人觉得这番话听起来不够真诚，但香港的官员们都肩负着一个同样的任务：维护香港的繁荣与稳定。


Our duty is to make Hong Kong a better place for us all, without hidden agendas or quid pro quos.	我们的职责是为了我们大家，把香港建设得更加美好。 在这里，没有隐秘动机，没有钱权交易。


It is an onerous and solemn undertaking, uplifting one day and extremely frustrating the next.	这是一个繁重而庄严的任务，可能今天令你振奋激动，明天又让你灰心丧气。


But, above all, it is an honor and a privilege to play such a role in our society, and I know that the vast majority of officials, legislators, judges, and civil servants with whom I’ve worked would agree.	但是，最重要的是，能够在社会里扮演这样一个角色是我们的荣幸。 我知道绝大多数曾与我共事的政府官员、议员、法官和公务员都会同意这一看法。


Ethics and Obama	奥巴马和伦理


TUBINGEN – Many say that the world financial crisis could not have been foreseen.	蒂宾根－许多人说世界金融危机是不可能预知的。


Perhaps not by financiers and economists, but others who were watching how markets were developing – often with dismay – were more than worried.	或许金融家和经济学家不能预知这次金融危机，但是，其他那些关注市场发展的人——通常带着惊慌——就不仅仅只是担忧了。


As early as 1997, I warned about a repeat of the collapsed economic order of 1929-1933 in my book A Global Ethic for Global Politics and Global Economics : “The slightest remark, for example by the President of the American Federal Bank, Alan Greenspan, at the beginning of December 1996, that an “irrational exuberance” had led to an overvaluation of the financial markets was enough to drive the nervous investors on the high-flying stock markets of Asia, Europe and America into a spin, and panic selling.	早在1997年，我就在我的作品《全球政治和经济的全球伦理》中，发出了对1929－1933年式的经济秩序崩溃再现的警告：“例如，美联储主席阿兰·格林斯潘在1996年12月月初的 ‘非理性繁荣’已经导致金融市场高估这样最轻微的评论，就足以使亚洲、欧洲和美国处于高位的股票市场高度紧张的投资者陷入恐慌性抛售。


This also shows that crises in globalization do not a priori balance out, but perhaps get progressively worse.”	这也显示了全球化危机不是一个先验平衡，而是或许变得日益糟糕了。 ”


Back then, I was already venturing what is, for economists, a heretical presumption: that chaos theory should be applied to the economy; that devastating effects can follow from the smallest causes.	那时，我已经大胆提出对经济学家来说是一个异端的假定：混沌理论应该被应用到经济学上； 最小的原因都可能导致毁灭性的结果。


One could by no means rule out “a return of the world economic crisis and the collapse of the world economic order of 1929-1933.”	人们绝对不能排除“世界经济危机以及1929－1933年式的世界经济秩序崩溃的重演”。


So I was not at all surprised by the speed and dimension of events in recent months.  Indeed, only a few economists – such as the 2001 Nobel economics laureate Joseph Stiglitz and the 2008 laureate Paul Krugman – warned against fatal developments that were mounting in the now globalized economy.	所以，我对最近几个月事件发展的速度和程度一点也不吃惊。 事实上，只有几个经济学家——例如2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨（Joseph Stiglitz）和2008年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）——对现在在全球化的经济中上升的致命发展状况发出了警告。


Contrary to many predictions by economic experts, the crisis has not been limited to the financial sector.  Instead, it is generating a massive impact on the real economy – hitting the automobile and chemical industries especially hard.	和经济专家的许多预测相反，危机并不仅仅限于金融部门。 相反，它对实体经济产生了巨大的冲击——对汽车业和化工行业的打击尤其大。


In contrast to 1929, credits are not now being throttled; on the contrary, public money is being pumped into banks and the economy.	和1929年形成对比的是，信贷现在还没有被停滞； 相反，公共资金正在被注入银行和经济。


But these measures will be successful only if they are not taken in an isolated and populist way.	但是，只有不是用孤立和民粹化的方式来采取这些措施，它们才能成功。


Instead, they need to be part of a convincing overall plan that combines responsible state intervention with relief of the financial burdens of individual citizens, as well as savings in public budgets.	而且，这些措施需要成为一个结合了包括减轻个人金融负担内容的负责任的国家干预和节约公共预算的有说服力的全面方案的一部分。


Unforeseeable state debt – at the cost of coming generations – is neither a viable nor an ethical solution.	无法预见的国家债务——是以后代为代价的——是一个既不可行也不道德的解决办法。


Fortunately, there are signs that the general state of mind that helped spawn the crisis is changing.	幸运的是，促使危机产生的一般思想状态有正在发生改变的迹象。


In the rich industrialized countries, after an era of cynical and short-sighted profit-maximizing behavior, we may be at the dawn of a new age of modesty and sustainability.  Companies are facing growing pressure to behave ethically, and unethical business behavior is at last being punished.	在富裕的工业化国家，在一个愤世嫉俗和短视的行为利润最大化时代之后，我们可能正处在一个谦逊和可持续的新时代的破晓之时。 公司都面临着行为要符合伦理的日益增大的压力，不道德的商业行为最终都要受到处罚。


On a lecture tour in the United States in November 2008, I could see that many people are now complaining about the overwhelming desire for profit in business and megalomania in politics.	2008年11月在美国的一个巡回演讲中，我能看出现在许多人都在抱怨商业上获得利润的巨大欲望以及政治上的狂妄自大。


As markets failed, calls for ethical regulation of the quest for profit has become justified not only in principle, but also in fact.	当市场失灵时，对追求利润进行道德监管的呼吁，不仅在原则上是正当的，在事实上也是正当的。


But ethics is not the icing on the cake; it is not merely an incidental addition to the global market economy.	但是，伦理不是蛋糕上的糖衣； 它不仅仅只是全球市场经济的一个偶然附加。


Rather, the new financial architecture that many are calling for, and which is urgently needed, must be supported by an ethical framework.	相反，许多人呼吁并且急需的新金融结构，必须以道德架构作为支持。


The fatal human instincts of greed and hubris can be tamed only with some elementary ethical norms.	人类致命的贪婪和狂妄本能只有一些基本的伦理准则才能驾驭。


So what should this ethical framework entail?  A paragraph of the Declaration toward a Global Ethic of the Parliament of the World’s Religions in Chicago in 1993 reads as follows:	那么，这一道德架构应该包含什么呢？ 1993年在芝加哥举行的世界宗教会议上提出的《世界伦理宣言》中，有一段话的内容如下：


“In the great ancient religious and ethical traditions of humankind we find the directive: You shall not steal!	“在人类伟大的古老宗教和伦理传统中，我们发现了如下的谕示： 人不应该偷窃！


Or in positive terms: Deal honestly and fairly!	或者用肯定语气表达的： 诚实公正地交易！


Let us reflect anew on the consequences of this ancient directive: No one has the right to rob or dispossess in any way whatsoever any other person or the commonweal.	让我们重新反思这个古老谕示所得到的推论：任何人都无权用任何方式抢夺或霸占其它任何人的财产或公益。


Further, no one has the right to use her or his possessions without concern for the needs of society and Earth.	而且，任何人都无权在不考虑社会和地球的需要的情况下使用她或他的财产。


To be authentically human in the spirit of our great religious and ethical traditions means the following:	要成为我们伟大宗教和伦理传统精神中真正的人，意味着如下的内容


• We must utilize economic and political power for service to humanity instead of misusing it in ruthless battles for domination.	•  我们必须将经济和政治权力用于 服务人类 而不是将它们滥用在为争夺统治而进行的无情战争上。


We must develop a spirit of compassion with those who suffer, with special care for the children, the aged, the poor, the disabled, the refugees, and the lonely;	我们必须发扬对那些遭受不幸的人的同情精神，对儿童、老人、穷人、残疾人、难民以及孤独的人进行特别的关怀；


• We must cultivate mutual respect and consideration, so as to reach a reasonable balance of interests, instead of thinking only of unlimited power and unavoidable competitive struggles;	•我们必须培养 互相尊重 和体谅，以达到一个合理的利益平衡，而不是仅仅考虑无约束的权力和无法避免的竞争；


• We must value a sense of moderation and modesty instead of an unquenchable greed for money, prestige, and consumption.	•我们必须珍视 温和和谦逊意识 而不是对金钱、声望和消费难以抑制的贪欲。


In greed humans lose their ‘souls’, their freedom, their composure, their inner peace, and thus that which makes them human.”	在贪欲中，人们失去了他们的‘灵魂’，他们的自由，他们的镇静，他们内心的平和并因而失去了那些使他们成为人的东西。 ”


Many hopes throughout the world are now directed toward President Barack Obama, who enters his presidency with a moral claim that is extraordinarily high for a politician.	全世界许多希望现在都指向了以对一个政治家来说非常高的道德主张开始总统任期的巴拉克·奥巴马总统，当然，奥巴马不是救世主；


Of course, Obama is not the Messiah; he cannot work miracles.	他不能创造奇迹。


But he is in a position to define an ethical framework for the rebuilding global economy.	但是，他处在为重建全球经济确定道德架构的重要地位之上。


In view of the oppressive – and unprecedented – abundance of problems with which Obama is confronted at home and abroad, he will certainly not be able to fulfill all expectations.	考虑到奥巴马在国内和国际上面临沉重——以及空前——多的问题，他当然不可能实现所有的期望。


I shall not pass judgment on his plans for the world economy as reported so far.	我不应该对迄今为止所报道的奥巴马的世界经济计划进行评价。


But it is certain that he has recognized the ethical dimension of the current economic crisis: “It amounts to one of values: do we assign a value only to wealth or the work which creates it?”	但是，他肯定已经认识到当前经济危机中的道德问题：“它实际上是我们的一个价值：我们只对财富赋予价值还是对创造财富的工作赋予价值？ ”


The suffering that so many people are enduring leads to pressure for reform, and Obama has shrewdly transformed these pressures into a political force.	许多人正在忍受的不幸引起了变革的压力，奥巴马敏锐地将这些压力转变成为一种政治力量。


All this shows that reflection on common ethical values, a global ethic, is needed more urgently now than ever before.	所有这些都表明，现在比以前任何时候都急需对一个全球性的共同伦理价值进行反思了。


The Promise of Ethical Machines	有伦理的机器能给我们带来什么


STORRS, CONNECTICUT – The prospect of artificial intelligence (AI) has long been a source of knotty ethical questions.	斯托尔斯，康涅狄格州—长期以来，人工智能（AI）的前景一直是伦理难题的来源。


But the focus has often been on how we, the creators, can and should use advanced robots.	但人们的关注焦点一直在我们创造者可以和应该如何使用先进的机器人。


What is missing from the discussion is the need to develop a set of ethics for the machines themselves, together with a means for machines to resolve ethical dilemmas as they arise.	而为机器本身制订一套伦理的需要一直没有得到讨论，同样被遗漏的还有在出现伦理两难时机器如何解决的问题。


Only then can intelligent machines function autonomously, making ethical choices as they fulfill their tasks, without human intervention.	只有这两点得到了充分考虑，智能机器才能自主运行，在完成任务的同时做出伦理选择而不需要人类干预。


There are many activities that we would like to be able to turn over entirely to autonomously functioning machines.	有很多活动我们都乐于完全转交给自动运行的机器。


Robots can do jobs that are highly dangerous or exceedingly unpleasant.	机器人可以从事非常危险或令人非常不快的工作。


They can fill gaps in the labor market.	它们可以填补劳动力市场空缺。


And they can perform extremely repetitive or detail-oriented tasks – which are better suited to robots than humans.	它们也可以完成冗长乏味或细节导向性任务——比起人类，这些任务更适合机器人。


But no one would be comfortable with machines acting independently, with no ethical framework to guide them.	但没人能完全放心让机器在没有伦理框架指导的情况下独立行动。


(Hollywood has done a pretty good job of highlighting those risks over the years.)	（多年来，好莱坞在强调这些风险方面做出了非常漂亮的工作。


That is why we need to train robots to identify and weigh a given situation’s ethically relevant features (for example, those that indicate potential benefits or harm to a person).	）正因如此，我们需要训练机器人识别和权衡给定状况的伦理相关的方面（比如表明潜在收益或对人的伤害的方面）。


And we need to instill in them the duty to act appropriately (to maximize benefits and minimize harm).	我们需要向它们灌输合理行动（从而实现收益最大化和伤害最小化）的责任。


Of course, in a real-life situation, there may be several ethically relevant features and corresponding duties – and they may conflict with one another.	当然，在现实生活中，可能会出现多重伦理相关方面和相应的责任——并且彼此之间可能互相冲突。


So, for the robot, each duty would have to be relativized and considered in context: important, but not absolute.	因此，对机器人而言，每项责任都必须放在周边环境中比较和考虑：重要，但不绝对。


A duty that prima facie was vital could, in particular circumstances, be superseded by another duty.	表面上至关重要的责任可能——特别是在特定的环境中——被另一项责任所否定。


The key to making these judgment calls would be overriding ethical principles that had been instilled in the machine before it went to work.	做出这些判断的关键是在机器开始工作前就向它们灌输的至高无上的伦理原则。


Armed with that critical perspective, machines could handle unanticipated situations correctly, and even be able to justify their decision.	有了这一批判性视角，机器可以正确地处理意料之外的情况，甚至能够论证它们的决定。


Which principles a machine requires would depend, to some extent, on how it is deployed.	机器需要什么原则在某程度上取决于它被如何部署。


For example, a search and rescue robot, in fulfilling its duty of saving the most lives possible, would need to understand how to prioritize, based on questions like how many victims might be located in a particular area or how likely they are to survive.	比如，搜救机器人的责任是拯救尽可能多的生命，在完成这一责任时，它们需要明白如何根据有多少受害者可能位于某个区域或有多少存货可能等问题排定优先顺序。


These concerns don’t apply to an eldercare robot with one person to look after.	这些考虑不适用于看护老人机器人。


Such a machine would instead have to be equipped to respect the autonomy of its charge, among other things.	看护老人机器人必须设定必须尊重主人的自主权。


We should permit machines to function autonomously only in areas where there is agreement among ethicists about what constitutes acceptable behavior.	只有在伦理学家就什么是可接受的行为形成了一致的领域，我们才能允许机器自主运行。


Otherwise, we risk a backlash against allowing any machine to function autonomously.	否则，允许任何机器自主运行都有可能让我们反受其害。


But ethicists would not be working alone.	但伦理学家不应该是“独行侠”。


On the contrary, developing machine ethics will require research that is interdisciplinary in nature, based on a dialogue between ethicists and AI specialists.	相反，制定及其伦理需要基于伦理学家和AI专家对话的多学科交叉研究。


To be successful, both sides must appreciate the expertise – and the needs – of the other.	要想获得成功，双方都必须尊重对方的专业性——以及需求。


AI researchers must recognize that ethics is a long-studied field within philosophy; it goes far beyond laypersons’ intuitions.	AI研究者必须认识到伦理是哲学的一个研究历史悠久的分支； 伦理学之所涉远远超乎外部人士的直觉。


Ethical behavior involves not only refraining from doing certain things, but also doing certain things to bring about ideal states of affairs.	伦理行为不但包括克制不去做某些事情，也包括做某些事情从而让事物进入理想状态。


So far, however, the determination and mitigation of ethical concerns regarding machine behavior has largely emphasized the “refraining” part, preventing machines from engaging in ethically unacceptable behavior, which often comes at the cost of unnecessarily constraining their possible behaviors and domains of deployment.	但是，到目前为止，关于机器行为的伦理顾虑的确定和缓解主要强调“克制”部分，即防止机器做出伦理上不可接受的行为，这常常造成不必要地约束它们的可能行为和部署领域。


For their part, ethicists must recognize that programming a machine requires the utmost precision, which will require them to sharpen their approach to ethical discussions, perhaps to an unfamiliar extent.	至于伦理学家，他们必须承认为一个机器编程需要最大限度的精确性，而这又需要让他们的伦理讨论观点更加犀利，甚至达到罕见的程度。


They must also engage more with the real-world applications of their theoretical work, which may have the added benefit of advancing the field of ethics.	他们还必须更多地参与他们的理论工作的真实世界应用，这能够给推进伦理学领域带来额外的好处。


More broadly, attempting to formulate an ethics for machines would give us a fresh start at determining the principles we should use to resolve ethical dilemmas.	更广泛地说，尝试为机器制定一套伦理能够给我们一个全新的开始，制定用于解决伦理难题的原则。


Because we are concerned with machine behavior, we can be more objective in examining ethics than we would be in discussing human behavior, even though what we come up with should be applicable to humans as well.	由于我们关注的是机器行为，可以比讨论人类行为的情况更加客观地考察伦理，即使我们所讨论的对象应该也适用于人类。


For one thing, we will not be inclined to incorporate into machines some evolutionarily evolved behaviors of human beings, such as favoring oneself and one’s group.	一方面，我们不会倾向于向机器嵌入一些人类演化而来的行为，如支持本人和某个集体。


Rather, we will require that they treat all people with respect.	相反，我们会要求它们尊重全体人类。


As a result, it is likely that the machines will behave more ethically than most human beings, and serve as positive role models for us all.	因此，有可能机器行为会比大部分人类更符合伦理，并成为我们所有人的积极角色榜样。


Ethical machines would pose no threat to humanity.	有伦理的机器不会造成人道威胁。


On the contrary, they would help us considerably, not just by working for us, but also by showing us how we need to behave if we are to survive as a species.	相反，它们将在很大程度上帮助我们，不但为我们工作，还向我们展示，要作为一个物种生存下去，我们人类应该如何行为。


Ethiopia’s New Climate of Fear	埃塞俄比亚新的恐怖气氛


Vienna – The European Union, the United States, and other major donors will pump about $2.5 billion into Ethiopia this year, a sum that does not even begin to include the cost of medicines, famine relief, and countless other services provided by non-profit groups in one of the world’s most impoverished countries.	维也纳——今年，埃塞俄比亚将收到来自欧盟，美国和其他主要捐助国家25亿美元的捐款。 对于这个世界上最贫困的国家来说，以上的捐款还不包括来自非盈利组织提供的有关医疗保健，饥饿救助以及其他难以计数的服务等。


That help is needed, because Ethiopians are prone to malnutrition, disease, and natural calamity.	这种援助是必要的，因为长期以来，埃塞俄比亚一直受到贫困，疾病和自然灾害的袭扰。


Its burgeoning population far outstrips the country’s ability to feed itself.	国家现有的资源难以应对急剧膨胀的人口数量。


So desperate is Ethiopia that celebrity causes – from Bob Geldoff’s Live Aid famine-relief concerts to Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt’s adoption of orphaned babies – supplement what donors cannot possibly provide.	这也是众多明星——从鲍勃·吉尔道夫为埃塞俄比亚饥民举办的ive Aid音乐会到安吉丽娜·朱莉和布拉德·皮特收养孤儿——救助埃塞俄比亚的原因，这些都是对国家和机构救援者不可能提供帮助的补充。


But for all this generosity, an authoritarian government rules Ethiopia with virtual impunity.	尽管有这么多的救助，埃塞俄比亚政府的威权统治依然不可动摇。


Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, in power for 18 years, has crushed the opposition.	总理梅莱斯·泽纳维消灭了反对者，在位已经高达18年。


His ruling party dominates public institutions.	他领导的政党占据着政府要位。


Worse still, in a vast and predominantly rural country, the prime minister’s underlings control broadcasting and maintain a choke-hold on other media.	更为糟糕的是，在领土面积广大的农村地区，他的手下控制了国家宣传机器，压制其他媒体的声音。


Four years ago this month, Zenawi’s Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDF) suffered its worst loss at the polls since the former guerrilla overthrew a ruthless, Soviet-backed regime in 1991.	4年前的这个月，泽纳维领导的埃塞俄比亚人民革命民主阵线在选举中受到重创。 这是这位前游击老手自从1991年推翻了前苏联支持的残酷政权以来遭受的最大一次打击。


Rather than accept its losses, the EPRDF-run government responded with a brutal crackdown, claiming outright victory and accusing the opposition of trying to stage an insurrection.	泽纳维不但不接受失败，反而指责反对派试图实行暴乱 ，宣称自己获得了压倒性的胜利，


Security forces attacked peaceful protesters, jailed opposition leaders, sent thousands of their supporters to gruesome detention camps, and accused independent journalists of treason – a crime punishable by death.	安全部队袭击了和平的示威者，关押了反对派领袖，将数以千计的反对派投入可怕的集中营，诬陷独立的新闻记者犯有叛国罪——此项罪名最高可以判处死刑。


Some journalists and politicians sought asylum in other countries.	一些记者和政治人物不得不流亡他国寻求政治避难。


During several months of unrest, roughly 200 people were killed.	在近期的几次骚乱中，大约有200人被杀戮。


It was a disgraceful snub for donor nations that had invested time and capital in supporting Ethiopia’s democratic transition.	这对于那些为了埃塞俄比亚民主转型而耗费大量时间和资金的捐助国家来说，无疑是一个响亮的耳光。


Many of the journalists and opposition figures were eventually released or granted clemency, but there has been no letup to the torment.	虽然随后，许多记者和反对派人物都被仁慈地释放，但我们不能因此而对暴政有所宽恕。


In late April 2009, security forces arrested 40 opposition figures, accusing them of trying to topple the government.	2009年4月底，安全部队以颠覆政府的名义，又逮捕了40名反对派人物。


Meanwhile, the authorities continue their assault on independent media through capricious licensing rules, interrogations, and, on occasion, revoking the permits of reporters for international broadcasters like the Voice of America.	与此同时，独裁政府通过善变的政策，对异议人士的审讯以及时不时地取消国际独立媒体，例如美国之音的采访权等措施，继续对独立的媒体进行打压。


Leading journalists have been assaulted, the culprits never found.	知名媒体工作者被袭击，被起诉后不明不白地消失。


“There is only fear, not freedom, of expression in Ethiopia,” says one leading journalist.	“在埃塞俄比亚，只有恐惧，没有自由。 ”一位知名记者如是说。


Ethiopia’s journalists are not entirely innocent.	埃塞俄比亚的记者也不是完全无辜的。


Some newspapers have stoked the country’s ethnic and regional animosities, and can be wildly inaccurate in their reporting.	一些报纸挑拨种族和地区的相互仇恨，进行歪曲事实的报道。


Yet badgering or jailing journalists is no way to resolve what could be handled through a voluntary media council or independent ombudsman.	即便如此，对记者的骚扰甚至监禁也不利于事情的解决，正确的方法应该是通过志愿媒体委员会或是独立的人权组织来解决问题。


Furthermore, the government effort to portray independent journalists as vicious enemies unfairly condemns the many Ethiopian reporters and editors who take their responsibilities seriously.	进一步说，政府对独立媒体的抹黑也伤害了本国许多职业操守良好的记者和编辑的声誉。


Zenawi has largely escaped sanction from his Western allies, in part because the erudite ex-Marxist had a friendly relationship with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and cooperated closely with the Bush administration in counter-terrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa.	泽纳维之所以没有受到西方盟友的制裁，部分原因是这位博学的前马克思主义者和英国前首相托尼·布莱尔私交良好，而且在对非洲之角的反恐行动中，他和布什政府有着密切的合作。


There has not been total silence.	当然，西方也不是完全保持沉默。


Donald Payne, a leading member of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Ana Gomes, a member of the European Parliament from Portugal and head of the EU’s observation team in the 2005 elections, have sought to tie non-humanitarian aid more closely to Ethiopia’s conduct on press freedom and other human rights.	美国众议院外交事务委员会的领军人物多那德·佩恩和来自葡萄牙的欧洲议会议员，2005年选举的欧盟观察员安娜·戈麦斯一直致力于将非人道主义援助和埃塞俄比亚的新闻自由和人权联系起来。


Britain and some other European governments responded to the post-election crackdown by temporarily withholding aid.	对于埃塞俄比亚选举后的镇压行径，英国和一些欧洲国家也暂停了对其经济援助。


But Ethiopia poses a dilemma for anyone who cares about human rights and democracy.	对那些关心埃塞俄比亚的人权和民主问题的人士来说，他们一直处在一个两难的境地。


Cutting off aid could have calamitous humanitarian consequences for the nation’s 80 million people. It could also destabilize a fragile region, sparking fresh wars with neighboring Somalia and Eritrea.	终止救援就会影响到8000万人民的生活，造成该国地区的不稳定，引发埃塞俄比亚和邻国索马里和厄立特里亚新一轮的冲突。


Nevertheless, there are ways to pressure Zenawi:	不管怎么样，我们可以有以下办法来对泽纳维施加压力


·        Donors should deny Ethiopian ministers a seat at diplomatic tables, such as the coveted spot Zenawi got at the G-20 summit in London as head of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development;	·        阻止埃塞俄比亚部长们参加国际事务的权利，例如阻止泽纳维作为非洲发展新伙伴关系（New Partnership for Africa's Development）的首脑参加20国峰会的权利。 这也是他一直想谋求参加的会议；


·        While the Development Assistance Group, created by the EU and other principal donors to coordinate aid projects in Ethiopia, has improved the efficiency of donor contributions, a vigorous monitoring component is needed to ensure that international resources do not support policies that are anathema to human rights values;	·        在欧盟和其他主要捐助国家的主导下，成立发展帮助集团（Development Assistance Group），监督和指导捐款利用的效率，防止国际援助的资金运用到那些违反人权的政策上去；


·        As a leading donor, the EU wields considerable power in Ethiopia and should be more willing to use it.	·        对于作为主要援助者的欧盟来说，应该对埃塞俄比亚发挥更大的影响力。


The EU should aggressively enforce the Cotonou Agreement, which requires Ethiopia and other nations that receive European assistance to respect “human rights, democratic principles, and the rule of law.” Cotonou is due for revision in 2010, so now is the time to develop enforcement mechanisms that establish clear penalties for failing to uphold human rights and freedom of the press.	欧盟应该逐渐推行实施《科托努协定》，就是将经济援助和人权民主和法律联系起来，《科托努协定》将在2010年被修订，所以现在就应该建立惩处机制，对那些没有尊重人权和新闻自由的国家实施明确的处罚措施。


·        The EU and the US should wield more of their clout at the World Bank and other international organizations to link development grants to progress on press freedom and human rights.	·        欧盟和美国应该利用例如世界银行等国际组织的影响力，将新闻自由和人权的状况和他们所提供的服务联系起来。


The aid that Ethiopia receives from its friends may be a small price to pay to keep Africa’s second largest country from descending into chaos.	对于埃塞俄比亚这个非洲第二大国来说，接受的援助可能有点微不足道，不能让其摆脱混乱局面的困扰。


But Ethiopia’s people deserve more from their government. Press freedom is a start, not just because it is a fundamental human right, but also because vigorous media are essential to keeping societies alert to the kinds of crises that are all too common in Ethiopia.	但对于埃塞俄比亚人民来说，政府应该有所进步，开放新闻的自由就是一个基本前提，因为它不仅仅是人权的一个基石，更重要的是，繁荣的媒体可以预警在埃塞俄比亚即将到来和已经发生的各种危机。


Rethinking Fortress Europe	对堡垒化欧洲的反思


LONDON – There is something rotten about the European Union’s debate on migration.	伦敦——欧盟关于移民问题的辩论散发着某种陈腐气息。


The continent’s political leaders, paralyzed by the rise of anti-immigrant populism, are turning their backs on desperately vulnerable people fleeing war, human-rights abuses, and economic collapse.	欧洲大陆的政治领袖在反移民民粹主义的裹挟下，正在抛弃逃离战争、人权践踏和经济崩溃的绝望的弱势群体。


Nowhere is the human cost of European policies more visible than in the Mediterranean Sea.	为欧洲政策付出最大代价的莫过于地中海。


The waters between Europe and Africa are the world’s deadliest migration route.	欧洲和非洲之间的海域是全世界最致命的移民线路。


Roughly 300,000 people are estimated to have made the crossing in 2014 – more than twice as many as in 2013.	估计约30万人——超过2013年人数的两倍——已经在2014年跨过这片海域。


Some 3,000 died from drowning, hunger, exposure, or asphyxiation.	约3，000人死于溺水、饥饿、暴晒或者窒息。


Most migrants set out from Libya, which has emerged as the center of a multi-million-dollar human-trafficking industry.	绝大多数移民来自利比亚，那里已成为产值数百万美元的人口贩卖中心。


Until recently, most migrants setting out for Italy made the crossing on small vessels.	直到不久前，前往意大利的多数移民还乘坐小船越境。


But, in a new twist, Italian authorities at the beginning of this year rescued hundreds of migrants, including pregnant women and dozens of children, aboard an aging steel-hulled freighter.	但意大利当局刚刚在年初从一艘老旧钢制货轮上救起了包括孕妇和数十名儿童在内的数百名移民。


The crew had jumped ship.	船员早已跳海逃生。


Given its close proximity to a deadly conflict in Syria and countries marked by extreme poverty, human-rights abuses, and weak or collapsed states and economies, the EU is inevitably a magnet for migrants and asylum-seekers.	因为靠近发生致命冲突的叙利亚，靠近以极端贫困、人权践踏和政府及经济衰落崩溃闻名的战乱国家，欧盟必然像磁铁一样吸引着寻求庇护者和移民。


That is why it needs a migration policy that reflects the values on which it was founded.	欧盟因此需要制定能反映其价值观的移民政策。


Unfortunately, respect for human life has taken a back seat to baser political calculations.	不幸的是，卑劣的政治算计压倒了对生命的尊重。


Consider Europe’s approach to search and rescue operations.	让我们看看欧洲对搜索救援行动的态度。


Last November, Italy suspended its Mare Nostrum rescue operation (which it launched in 2013, after more than 300 migrants drowned off the coast of the Italian island of Lampedusa), because other EU member states refused to share the costs – some €9 million ($10.6 million) a month.	去年11月，因为其他欧盟成员国拒绝分担每月900万欧元左右（合1060美元）的成本，意大利暂停了地中海救援行动（2013年300多名移民在靠近意大利兰佩杜萨岛海岸溺水身亡后，意大利启动了这项救援行动）。


In its place, the EU border agency, Frontex, has begun conducting a limited coastal mission called Operation Triton.	欧盟边境管理局、欧盟边防局（Frontex）已经启动名为海卫行动的有限海岸救援计划，以部分弥补地中海救援行动停止后的空缺。


Why the reluctance to share the cost of humanitarian rescue operations?	欧盟国家为什么不愿分担人道主义救援行动的费用？


Senior ministers in the United Kingdom and other northern European countries, relying on little more than armchair behavioral economics, argued that Mare Nostrum encouraged more migrants to attempt the dangerous sea crossing.	英国和其他北欧国家的高级部长以扶手椅行为经济学为借口，提出地中海救援行动鼓励更多移民尝试危险的海洋偷渡。


In other words, allowing children to drown is a legitimate deterrent.	换言之，任由儿童溺水而坐视不理是合法的威慑因素。


Back in the real world, the desperation and aspiration driving people to flee outweigh the risks posed by the crossing – meaning that the closure of Mare Nostrum will do nothing to reduce the number of people attempting the journey to Europe.	回到现实世界，驱动民众逃离的绝望和期望压倒了渡海所带来的危险——也就是说停止地中海救援行动不会减少向欧洲偷渡的人数。


But Europe’s debate on migration is so toxic that the forces actually causing people to move are seldom discussed.	但欧洲有毒的移民辩论却极少探讨致使民众偷渡的因素。


According to Frontex, roughly a quarter of the migrants who crossed the Mediterranean in 2014 were Syrian families escaping the civil war there.	据欧盟边防局统计，2014年偷渡地中海的移民约有四分之一是为逃避叙利亚内战。


Young Eritreans – fleeing a country that imposes indefinite military conscription on dissidents – made up another quarter.	还有四分之一是厄立特里亚青年，试图逃离该国对持不同政见者实行的无限兵役制。


Many others came from poor, violence-prone countries: Palestine, Somalia, Sudan, Mali, and Nigeria.	还有很多人来自巴勒斯坦、索马里、苏丹、马里和尼日利亚等贫困和暴力频发的国家。


Faced with a humanitarian crisis in the Mediterranean, the EU has responded by trying to build a fortress.	面对地中海人道主义危机，欧盟却以建设堡垒作为主要对策。


It has invested heavily in a fenced border between Turkey and Greece.	欧盟已经为在土耳其和希腊边境修建围栏投入巨资。


Amnesty International has documented the widespread practice of pushing back migrants and refugees attempting to cross into Greece and Bulgaria – a practice that contravenes international law.	国际大赦组织记录了阻挡移民和难民越境进入希腊和保加利亚的普遍做法——这种做法违反了国际法的原则。


But the fortress has merely rechanneled, rather than stemmed, the flow of people, forcing migrants and refugees to attempt dangerous sea crossings – even as search and rescue operations are being scaled back.	但欧洲构筑的堡垒并未阻止、只是改变了人流，迫使移民和难民在缩减搜索救援行动的情况下尝试危险的海上偷渡。


The only beneficiaries are the human traffickers that charge Syrian refugees some €6,000 for space in a dangerous boat or freighter.	人贩子成了唯一的受益者，他们为危险偷渡船只上的弹丸之地而向叙利亚难民收取6，000欧元的高价。


The EU’s efforts to develop a coherent approach to the crisis have bordered on farce.	欧盟寻找明确危机解决办法的努力已几乎成为闹剧。


What drives people to Europe is a complex set of forces, ranging from conflict and political persecution to poverty and economic pressures.	驱使人们奔赴欧洲的包括从冲突到政治迫害、从贫困到经济压力等一系列的复杂因素。


Europe’s institutional response is to view all migration as a border-management issue.	欧洲机构的对策是将所有移民问题视为边境管理问题。


The EU Commission’s various departments – notably, those that focus on development – are barely consulted.	欧盟委员会各个部门——尤其是那些侧重发展的部门——的意见却很少有人听取。


Meanwhile, the patchwork of national asylum and migration policies makes a cohesive framework impossible to devise.	此外，东拼西凑的国家庇护和移民政策难以建立起连贯的框架结构。


This challenge was reflected in the EU foreign ministers’ recent declaration on migration, which was so vague that it defied practical interpretation.	欧盟外长前不久发表的移民宣言就很好体现出问题所在，其中用词含混到很难做出实际的解释。


Correcting these policy failures is made more difficult by the rise of populist political forces.	民粹主义政治势力的崛起更加大了纠正政治错误的难度。


The National Front in France, the United Kingdom Independence Party, and far-right anti-immigration parties in Sweden, Denmark, and Italy are picking up votes and shutting down informed public debate on a tough policy question that has no easy answers.	法国国民阵线、英国独立党和瑞典、丹麦及意大利的极右翼反移民政党获得的选票不断攀升，并且取消了就��个没有简单答案的艰难政治问题在全面理解基础上的公众辩论。


Europe desperately needs to have a mature, fact-based conversation about migration.	欧洲迫切需要就移民问题进行以事实为基础的成熟对话。


Strict border controls can never be more than one part of the solution to the EU’s migration challenge.	加强边境控制永远无法解决欧盟移民所面临的全部问题。


The crises in Syria, Iraq, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are likely to lead to yet more dislocation.	叙利亚、伊拉克和撒哈拉以南非洲危机可能导致更多的人流离失所。


Higher fences, more vigilant surveillance, and increased policing will not be enough to address the increase in migration that is almost certain to result.	加高围栏、强化监控及增强警力肯定不足以化解由此导致的移民人数增加。


Instead, acting on the EU’s founding values, member states should co-finance a search and rescue operation along the lines of Mare Nostrum; strengthen their efforts to protect the rights of refugees; and share the burden of granting asylum.	相反，各成员国秉承欧盟最基本的价值观，理应共同承担地中海行动的搜索和救援开支； 加强对难民权利的保护；


Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Sweden took in 70% of those granted refugee status in the EU last year.	并共同承担起庇护之责。 德国、法国、英国和瑞典去年收容了全部欧盟难民的70%。


Others – notably Spain – need to do more.	其他国家——尤其是西班牙——需要强化这方面的努力。


Wider responses are also needed.	此外还要采取更广泛的对策。


For example, more coherent and generous approaches to the provision of temporary work visas would benefit both migrants and Europeans.	比方说，长期慷慨地提供临时工作签证对移民和欧洲民众同样有利。


And EU member states could use their aid budgets to provide greater support for the Syrian refugees living in dire circumstances in neighboring countries.	欧盟成员国可以运用国内援助预算，为邻国生活在水深火热中的叙利亚难民提供更多支持。


The lesson of the migration crisis in the Mediterranean is clear: Fortress Europe is not working.	地中海移民危机的教训显而易见：堡垒化的欧洲没有办法持续下去。


The EU must map out a new approach.	欧洲必须谋划新的解决办法。


When it does, its own values will be the best guide.	在此过程中，欧洲自身的价值观将提供最好的指引。


Britain’s Last EU Straw?	英国的最后一根欧盟稻草？


LONDON – Is £1.7 billion ($2.7 billion) a lot of money for the British government to fork out?	伦敦—17亿英镑对英国政府来说是一大笔钱，因此拿出来需要仔细考虑吗？


It is when it is a European Union budget demand that comes out of the blue.	当它以欧盟预算要求的形式突然出现时是的。


But the impact of the EU’s unexpected budget invoice is not just financial, for it has arrived at a time when the anti-EU, United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is riding high in opinion polls.	但欧盟出人意料的账单不仅仅是金融上的，因为它的到来正逢反欧盟的英国独立党（United Kingdom Independence Party）在民调中狂飙突进之时。


The episode reveals the arbitrary nature of EU budget setting, which puts the EU itself in a bad light – and could be the last straw for Britain’s EU membership.	这一事件彰显出欧盟预算规定有多么任性（arbitrary），这将陷欧盟自身于极其不利的境地，也很可能成为英国退出欧盟的最后一根稻草。


The bill originates from a statistical recalculation by Eurostat, the EU statistical office, of the UK’s economic performance over the past 20 years.	这张账单源于欧盟统计局（Eurostat）对英国过去20年经济表现的重新统计结果。


The longer-terms costs, however, could be much greater than the relatively small amount (0.1% of GDP) involved.	但是，其长期代价也许比其相对较小的数字（相当于GDP的0. 1%）大得多。


The political crisis – which originated with the calculation of national budget surcharges and rebates from the EU budget – stems from an institutional arbitrariness that seems unjust and fosters immense resentment.	政治危机——源自欧盟预算对国家预算附加费和退税的计算——来自于制度任性（institutional arbitrariness），这种任性是不公平的，并且产生了极大的不满。


Like friendships or marriages that break down over seemingly trivial issues that in fact signify fundamental problems, this budget crisis has highlighted a serious flaw in the UK-EU relationship.	就像是看似因为琐事而破裂的友谊和婚姻，其背后其实存在根本性问题，这场预算危机彰显出英国-欧盟关系中的严重缺陷。


The new financial demand surprised UK Prime Minister David Cameron, who called it “completely unacceptable.”	这一新金融要求震惊了英国首相卡梅伦，他称之为“完全不可接受”。


For many Euroskeptics, this was yet another sign of a conspiracy by the European Commission against Britain.	对许多欧洲怀疑派来说，这只不过是欧盟委员会针对英国的又一阴谋信号。


Referring to a children’s murder-detective board game, Cameron declared: “You don’t need a Cluedo set to know that someone has been clubbed with the lead piping in the library.”	卡梅伦用儿童凶杀案侦探桌游作比方说：“你不需要超级线索（Cluedo）就能知道，有人聚集在图书馆下水道旁边密谋。


A better comparison might have been with the “Chance” cards in Monopoly, the Great Depression-era board game that highlighted the random injustice of capitalism.	”更好的比方也许是凸显资本主义随机不公正性的大萧条时代桌游强手棋中的“机会”卡。


The timing of the spat could not be better for Britain’s EU opponents.	争议对英国的欧盟反对派来说可谓来得正逢其时。


UKIP could conceivably hold the balance of power following next May’s general election, and force the government to hold its promised “in-out” referendum on EU membership.	英国独立党名正言顺地在明年5月的大选后维持权力平衡，迫使政府履行其所承诺的欧盟“留还是走”公投。


Under electoral pressure, Britain’s two main parties – Conservatives and Labour – are already advocating limits on immigration that are incompatible with EU law and the core principles of European integration.	面临选举压力的英国两大政党保守党和工党已开始宣传限制移民，而这与欧盟法律和欧洲一体化核心原则相悖。


The emotional escalation may lead many people, on both sides of the English Channel, to conclude that the UK and the EU would each be better off without the other.	这一心理冲突的扩大可能导致许多英吉利海峡两岸的人认为英国和欧盟还是各走一边为好。


Pre-existing tensions have inevitably played a large part in the current flare-up.	先前所存在的紧张难免在当前的交火中扮演着重要角色。


But is the EU’s budget calculation method also at fault?	但欧盟的预算计算方式是否也有问题？


It is rational for a country’s EU budget contribution to reflect its real level of economic activity.	一国对欧盟预算的贡献反映其实际经济活动是自然而然的。


In any case, the total EU budget, at around 1% of EU output, is relatively small, and has not changed for more than 30 years.	无论如何，占欧盟产出1%左右的欧盟预算相对较低，并且30多年来没有什么变化。


The recalculation simply attempts to achieve a more accurate picture of the EU economy, correcting for activity not officially measured in national accounts, such as charity, drugs, and prostitution.	重新计算只不过是为了更准确地勾勒欧盟经济图景，纠正官方国民账户没有计算的活动，如慈善、毒品、卖淫等。


Moreover, Britain was not the only EU member to fall foul of the recalculation.	此外，英国也不是唯一一个在重新计算中“中镖”的欧盟成员国。


Italy’s economic performance also looked better than previously assumed, necessitating an additional payment.	意大利经济表现比此前所认为的更好，因此也需要增加欧盟预算贡献额。


Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi duly joined the chorus of outrage, calling the recalculation a “lethal weapon.”	意大利总理伦齐听闻后也动了怒，称欧盟预算重新计算是“致命凶器”。


To be sure, it is fundamentally sensible for governments to monitor and tax as much domestic economic activity as possible.	平心而论，政府尽可能对更多国内经济活动进行监控和课税从根本上说是明智的。


An external assessment that attempts to account for the whole of the economy – and calculates the budget contribution on this basis – should increase tax efficiency.	试图计算整个经济——并以此为基础计算预算贡献——的外部评估应该可以增加税收效率。


Poor taxation capacity has, after all, been an endemic problem in southern Europe, including in Italy (and especially in Greece), while France and Germany, which both received large rebates, are better tax collectors.	毕竟，拙劣的税收能力是包括意大利在内的南欧的顽疾之一（希腊尤其严重），而收获大笔退款的法国和德国的收税能力要强得多。


Italy, like Greece, has been trying to broaden its tax base.	和希腊类似，意大利也在试图扩大税基。 空中勘测用于检查家庭游泳池；


Aerial surveys now detect garden swimming pools; tax assessors investigate yachts moored in harbors; and no transactions above €1,000 ($1,268) may be made in cash.	税收评估师正在调查停在港口中的游艇； 1,000欧元以上的交易不可用现金进行。


Yet why should the EU’s budget calculations place such importance on national accounts, which constitute a set of arbitrary conventions?	但欧盟预算计算为何如此强调国民账户，从而让人们感到它显得十分任性？


If, for example, wages were paid for housework, GDP would increase without any more activity taking place.	如果（比如）家务活也要付工资，那么GDP就可以在不增加任何活动的情况下增长。


In a rational world, EU budget contributions would not be arbitrarily set, but would be automatically determined, say, as a fixed proportion of value-added tax (VAT) receipts.	在理性世界中，欧盟预算贡献不会如此任性地确定，而是根据（比如）增值税税收额的固定比例自动决定。


Only a relatively small share would be needed, requiring no periodic recalculations.	只需要相对较小的比例，不需要定期重新计算。


Assessing, and then reassessing, members’ dues in the current way damages the EU.	以当前方式对一国的义务进行评估和在评估会伤害欧盟。


Taken to its logical extreme, member countries would demand recalculations to reflect the different ways they measure income and wealth, thereby pitting potential beneficiary countries against contributors.	将这一逻辑极端化，成员国将要求重新计算反映它们测量收入和财富的不同方法，从而让潜在受益国和贡献国针锋相对。


Such a fiscal set-up has already threatened to break up member states – consider Scotland or Catalonia.	这一财政设计已经导致了成员国分裂的威胁——比如苏格兰和加泰罗尼亚。


If the EU is seen as being little more than a treasure chest that allots fiscal resources to its members, it is bound to fail.	如果欧盟仅仅被视为一个向成员国配置财政资源的财库，那么它必然会失败。


As geopolitical challenges mount, and Europe faces its first systemic security threat since the end of the Cold War, the stakes could not be higher.	随着地缘政治挑战的增加，以及欧盟面临其冷战结束后的第一次系统性安全威胁，兹事不可谓不体大。


Europe cannot get bogged down in what should be a simple bureaucratic process.	欧洲决不能陷入一个本应是简单的官僚程序而无法自拔。


Rather, the EU must be able to explain what it truly represents, and these ideals must be reflected in actions that are clear, predictable, and non-arbitrary.	相反，欧盟必须能够解释重新计算的真正含义，并且其理想算盘必须反映在明确、可预测、不任性的行为中。


Europe’s Pointless Deficit Targets?	欧洲无意义的赤字目标？


BRUSSELS – The fiscal rules of the European Union have undergone some much-needed improvements in recent years, but much more needs to be done.	布鲁塞尔—欧盟的财政规则在近几年中进行了一些急需的改进，但还需要更多的改进。


In addition to suffering from a lack of clarity on key issues, EU fiscal policy remains overly focused on short-term goals, reflected in its needless emphasis on nominal deficit targets within annual budget cycles.	除了在关键问题上缺少明确性，欧盟财政政策依然过于关注短期目标，比如毫无必要地强调年预算周期内的名义赤字目标。


To be sure, all EU countries have a real interest in the fiscal sustainability of their fellow members.	诚然，其他成员国的财政可持续性是所有欧盟国家的切身利益。


But annual deficits are poor approximations of the likelihood that one member may have to repay another’s debt.	但年度赤字是衡量一国是否必须为另一国偿还债务的糟糕指标。


The fact that the existence of exceptional circumstances can now be invoked to distribute the burden of any needed adjustments over more than one year is helpful.	如今，可以以存在特殊情况为由将任何必须的调整负担分配到一年以上的时间短 ，这一事实是大有裨益的。


But it does not eliminate the short-term bias embedded in the EU’s fiscal rules.	但这并没有消除欧盟财政规则中的短期倾向。


In a fully integrated market, the annual financing of government deficits should not be an issue, provided the stock of debt is sustainable.	在充分一体化的市场中，政府赤字的年度融资不应该成为问题，如果债务存量可持续的话。


That is why the EU should strive to create a fiscal framework that has the sole objective of ensuring that its members’ debts are sustainable.	因此，欧盟应该致力于建立一个财政框架，其唯一目标是确保成员国债务可持续。


By definition, this target would be country-specific.	顾名思义，这一目标应该具体到国家。


It would not require a headline deficit of below 3% of GDP in each and every year, in each and every country.	它不要求每一年每一国标题赤字（headline deficit）都低于GDP的3%。


But it would require a more sophisticated analytical framework than the current one, which merely distinguishes between countries on the basis of whether they meet the EU’s 60%-of-GDP ceiling on public debt.	但它要求比现在更成熟的分析框架，只根据是否符合公债不超过GDP的60%的欧盟标准区分各国。


The eurozone is much better positioned to manage fiscal pressures than it once was.	与以往相比，目前的欧元区处于一个好得多的管理财政压力的位置。


The European Central Bank’s “outright monetary transactions” scheme provides an important backstop for debt sustainability.	欧洲央行“直接货币交易”机制为债务可持续性提供了重要支撑。


And a banking union, once completed, should contain the risk of financial crisis and contagion.	而银行联盟一旦完成，也可以遏制金融危机和传染的风险。


Meanwhile, quantitative easing by the ECB has reduced fears that governments will run out of cash, at least for the time being.	与此同时，欧洲央行的量化宽松降低了对政府现金耗尽的担忧，至少在目前是如此。


Efforts to make the rules more flexible are a welcome development, but shortcomings remain, particularly given that implementation risks make the macroeconomic effects of rule changes difficult to quantify.	让规则更加灵活的措施值得欢迎，但缺陷仍在，特别是考虑到实施风险让规则变化的宏观经济效果难以量化。


For example, it is not obvious how to deal with the fact that decisions by large countries have larger externalities, both positive and negative, than those made by their smaller peers, setting the ground for different treatment in a monetary union of supposed equals.	比如，如何应对大国的决定比小国具有更大（积极和消极）外部性的事实，为本应平等的货币联盟中的区别对待找到依据，目前尚不清楚。


Nor is it clear what room for discretion has been provided to the European Commission to address such outcomes.	同样不清楚的还有欧盟委员会被授予多大的自由裁量权纠正这类结果。


Above all, long-term fiscal outlooks must be fully embedded in the EU and its member states.	首先，长期财政前景必须充分纳入欧盟及其成员国。


Institutions will have to be redesigned to accommodate this approach and resolve some of the ambiguities in the current framework, while avoiding discrimination or politicization.	机构必须重新设计以适应这一方针，并解决当前框架的某些含糊之处，同时避免歧视或政治化。


One possible vehicle for accomplishing this is the independent councils that the EU’s so-called fiscal compact has now made mandatory for every country in the eurozone.	实现这一目标的一个可能方法是建立独立的委员会，这使欧盟所谓的财政契约现在对欧元区的所有国家都有约束力。


These councils are tasked with assessing the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts, overseeing compliance with targets, and ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability.	这些委员会的任务是评估宏观经济预测的准确性、监督是否符合目标，以及确保长期财政可持续性。


But it remains unclear exactly how they fit into the overall fiscal framework; indeed, the complexity of EU rules may limit the councils’ capacity to fulfill their function.	但它们如何契合总体财政框架仍不清楚； 事实上，欧盟规则的复杂性可能制约委员会实现其功能的能力。


Fiscal councils should not be put in the position of trying to interpret the letter of the fiscal compact.	财政委员会不能用来解读财政契约的内容。


It would be far better to provide them with the sole task of assessing debt sustainability and advising governments in this regard.	更好的做法是让只让它们负责一项任务：评估债务可持续性并向政府提供这方面的建议。


Their recommendations should be binding, but they should also be focused on the medium term, rather than on annual fiscal outcomes.	它们的建议应该具有约束力，但应该专注于中期而非年度财政结果。


In a few cases, fiscal councils might impose conditions that are even more stringent than current EU rules stipulate, but they would be limited to enforcing the structural balance that each signatory of the fiscal compact has enshrined in its constitution or in equally binding legislation.	在一些例子中，财政委员会可以提出比当前的欧盟规则更加严苛的条件，但只限于强制实施每一个财政契约签署国都写入宪法或约束力等同的立法的结构性平衡。


In other cases, the councils’ recommendations are likely to be more relaxed on an annual basis than current EU rules. Either way, the recommendations would have the advantage of being better adapted to local needs – especially if the councils are accountable to national parliaments.	在其他例子中，委员会的建议可以比当前欧盟规则的以年为基础的做法更加宽松——特别当委员会需要受到国家议会问责的话。


The best way to preserve the councils’ independence over time would be through top-down monitoring and control at the eurozone level, for example through the establishment of a European Fiscal Council, which would be responsible for ensuring that every national council fulfills its mandate.	保持委员会长期独立性的最佳办法是通过欧元区层面的自上而下的监督和控制，比如通过成立一个欧洲财政委员会（European Fiscal Council）负责确保所有国家的委员会都完成使命。


The EFC would be authorized to request an amended assessment of a country’s fiscal trajectory and requirements.	欧洲财政委员会将得到授权要求对一国的财政历史和要求作出修正评估。


With such limited authority, there would be no need for the EFC to be accountable or democratically legitimated at the European level.	在权限如此有限的情况下，没有必要在欧洲层面上问责欧洲财政委员会或要求其具有民主合法性。


In addition to favoring a long-term perspective, this governance structure would also answer some of the questions that arise with increased flexibility.	除了有利的长期前景，这一治理结构还能解决一些随灵活性的增加而出现的问题。


Independent national authorities would be better placed not only to assess implementation risks, but also to advocate for structural reforms.	独立的国家当局不但能更好地评估实施风险，还有利于结构改革。


Moreover, such a system would imply little risk of top-down discrimination against smaller countries.	此外，这一体系意味着小国受到自上而下的歧视的风险极小。


As national governments took responsibility for the European objective of fiscal sustainability, annual budget targets imposed by the EU would become obsolete, at which point that should be abandoned altogether.	由于由国家政府负责欧洲的财政可持续性目标，欧盟要求的年度财政预算将不合时宜，应该彻底抛弃。


The Silent Death of Eurozone Governance	欧元区治理静在沉默中死亡


BRUSSELS – Sometimes the most important thing that happens is what doesn’t happen – or, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, it’s the dog that doesn’t bark in the night.	布鲁塞尔—有时候，发生的最重要的事是什么没有发生——或者，用夏洛克·福尔摩斯的话说，就是那条在夜里没有叫的狗。


The lack of response to the European Commission’s non-enforcement in Spain and Portugal of the terms of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is one of those times.	欧盟委员会的稳定与增长公约（SGP）在西班牙和葡萄牙没有得到执行也没有引起反应，就属于此列。


According to SGP rules, the Commission should have proposed a fine to be levied on Spain and Portugal for overshooting their fiscal deficit targets by a wide margin.	据SGP，欧盟委员会应该提出就西班牙和葡萄牙大幅度超出财政赤字目标进行罚款。


The fine would have been largely symbolic, but the Commission seems to have decided that the symbolism wasn’t worth it.	罚款原本也是象征性的，但欧盟委员会似乎认定象征性不值得它出手。


And it was not only the Commission that chose not to bark; the rest of Europe remained silent as well.	不但欧盟委员会选择了不叫，欧洲其他国家也保持了沉默。


Not even Germany, the European Union’s leading austerity watchdog, perked up.	就连欧盟第一紧缩监督官德国也打不起精神。


In fact, there have been reports that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble lobbied several commissioners not to impose fines on Spain or Portugal.	事实上，有报道说德国财长朔伊布勒游说多名欧盟委员不要对西班牙和葡萄牙罚款。


The German financial press, which often criticizes the European Commission for being too lax, barely registered the decision.	德国财经媒体经常批评欧盟委员会管得太松，对这个决定却几乎视而不见。


What explains the silence?	如此沉默原因何在？


There is precedent for fiscal leniency in the EU.	欧盟的财政宽大有先例可循。


In 2003, all three large eurozone countries (France, Germany, and Italy) were running deficits in excess of 3% of GDP, the upper limit established by the SGP.	2003年，欧元区三个大国（法国、德国和意大利）的赤字都超过了SGP所规定的上限、GDP的3%。


Toward the end of that year, it was clear that France and Germany (then with record-high unemployment) were not fulfilling their deficit-reduction commitments.	到当年年底，法国和德国（当时失业率处于创纪录水平）都显然不能兑现减赤承诺。


But, unlike today, the Commission did bark (even if it could not really bite).	但是，与今天不同的是，欧盟委员会倒是叫了（即便它其实不可能真的咬人）。


It proposed ratcheting up the SGP’s so-called excessive deficit procedure.	它建议扩大SGP的所谓过度赤字程序。


The proposal did not entail any fines; rather, it focused on the stage before fines would be considered.	该建议不包括任何罚款； 相反，它的重点是考虑罚款之前的阶段。


Nonetheless, EU finance ministers strenuously opposed it, largely for political reasons.	尽管如此，欧盟各财政部长强烈反对，原因主要是政治上的。


The clash occupied the front pages of newspapers all over Europe, especially in Germany, where the press, like the political opposition, was eager to chastise Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s government for its failure to uphold fiscal rectitude.	这场冲突占据了整个欧洲的报纸头条，特别是德国，其媒体就像是政治反对派，热衷于批评总理施罗德政府不能坚持财政正确。


There were heated debates on the fiscal rules, and the Commission’s role in enforcing them.	就财政规则以及欧盟委员会执行规则的角色问题上出现了热烈的争论。


In short, everyone was howling.	简言之，所有人都在嚎叫。


Despite the resistance, the Commission decided to plow ahead and censure Germany and France.	尽管遭遇了阻力，欧盟委员会仍然决定行动并公开谴责德国和法国。


With that decision, it sent a clear message that it took seriously its responsibility to administer the EU treaties – so seriously, in fact, that it would enforce rules with which it did not necessarily agree.	它以这一行动清楚地表明，它对于执行欧盟条约的责任是认真的——事实上，其认真程度达到了即使它并不同意的规则也要执行。


Indeed, the Commission’s then-president, Romano Prodi, had already harshly criticized the SGP’s rigidity.	事实上，时任欧盟委员会主席普罗迪严厉批评了SGP的僵化。


Ultimately, however, political interests won the day, and the EU finance ministers voted down the proposal.	但是，最终，政治利益获得了胜利，欧盟财政部长们推翻了这一建议。


The ministers subsequently moved to reform the SGP, shifting the focus from headline deficits to a measure of the fiscal position that takes into account the state of the economy.	财政部长们随后开始了改革SGP，将重点从标题赤字转向考虑经济状态的财政状况指标。


The Commission accepted the reform, and has since made several additional changes, each time proudly declaring that the SGP is more “flexible” and “intelligent” than ever.	欧盟委员会接受了改革，此后又进行了几次变革，每一次都骄傲地宣布SGP比以往更加“灵活”和“智能”。


Today, Spain and Portugal are not adhering even to the new flexible rules.	如今，西班牙和葡萄牙连新的灵活规则都不遵守。


Yet the current Commission, led by President Jean-Claude Juncker, was divided on whether to enforce them, with some commissioners favoring leniency.	但以主席容克为首的现任委员会就是否要执行规则产生了分歧，一些委员支持宽大处理。


Schäuble’s intervention, it seems, settled the matter.	似乎朔伊布勒的干预左右了最后的决定。


Clearly, when it comes to allowing political considerations to affect enforcement of the rules, not much has changed.	显然，在允许政治考虑影响规则的执行方面，情况并没有发生太大变化。


And, in fact, this time around, the Commission had more power to override resistance from finance ministers.	此外，事实上这一回欧盟委员会有更大的力量克服财政部长们的反对。


After the 2008 economic crisis, Europe introduced a “reverse majority rule,” under which any Commission proposal to impose a fine is final, unless EU finance ministers can muster a two-thirds majority against it.	2008年经济危机后，欧洲引入了“扭转多数规则”，根据这一规则，欧盟委员会的任何罚款建议都是最终建议，除非欧盟财政部长们以三分之二多数反对。


And herein lies a key difference between today and 2003: the Commission’s commitment to enforcing SGP rules has waned.	在这里，今天的情况与2003年存在一个关键区别：欧盟��员会对执行SGP的决心减弱了。


The relative silence of the public and the media drive the point home.	公众和媒体的相对沉默最能说明问题。


Support for the fiscal rules has faded.	对财政规则的支持看不到了。


Perhaps, with a surge in terrorist attacks, particularly in Germany and France, citizens and leaders are too preoccupied with security issues.	也许，随着恐怖袭击的激增（特别是在德国和法国），人民和领导人被安全问题吸引了注意力。


The United Kingdom’s impending “Brexit” from the EU is also consuming much attention.	英国即将“脱欧”也消耗了大量关注。


And continuing high unemployment in many countries may seem to be a more urgent economic issue than reducing deficits.	而许多国家持续高企的失业率也许是比减赤更加紧迫的经济问题。


But the decline in support for European fiscal rules carries serious risks.	但对欧洲财政规则的支持减弱带来了严重的风险。


If the most concrete elements of the eurozone’s governance framework are not applied rigorously, what will compel member states to undertake reforms and stabilize their debt levels?	如果欧元区治理框架的大部分实质要素不能严格应用，还拿什么迫使成员国实施改革和稳定债务水平？


Vague exhortations will not work.	含糊不清的告诫是没用的。


It seems that the crisis, and the untenably large risk premia for highly indebted governments that followed, has already been forgotten.	危机及其后重债国政府超高的风险溢价似乎已经被忘记了。


Officially, the Commission is still working to realize the blueprint for a “genuine” Economic and Monetary Union.	官方而言，欧盟委员会仍在努力实现“真正的”经济和货币联盟的蓝图。


But in the wake of the Commission’s decision not to enforce the SGP, this effort has become meaningless.	但随着欧盟委员会决定不执行SGP，这一努力已经毫无意义。


It is now clearer than ever that EU member states prioritize domestic political imperatives over common rules – and Europe’s common good.	现在比以往任何时候都更加清楚，欧盟成员国认为政治紧迫性比共同规则——以及欧洲的共同好处——更加重要。


European Jobs Wanted	欧洲需要工作岗位


BERLIN – When the European Union held its first summit on growth and jobs in 1997, EU-wide unemployment stood at 11%.	柏林—1997年，当欧盟首次举行增长和就业峰会时，泛欧盟失业率为11%。


Last autumn, when it held another, not much seemed to have changed.	去年秋天，当欧盟再次举行增长和就业峰会时，情况没有太大变化。 欧元区失业率为11.


Unemployment in the eurozone was 11.5% – up from a low of 6.8% in the first quarter of 2008.	5%——2008年一季度曾达到过6. 8%的低点。


If the EU is to fulfill its promise of peace and prosperity, it will need to find ways to create opportunities for more of its citizens.	欧盟要想兑现其和平与繁荣的承诺，就需要找到办法为更多欧洲公民创造机会。


Youth unemployment is a particularly serious concern, even in countries with otherwise positive employment statistics; in countries with worse labor-market conditions, it represents a potential source of social and political instability.	年轻人失业率尤其令人担心，即使是在就业数字相当积极的国家； 在劳动力市场情况较差的国家，这意味着潜在社会和政治动荡。


Participation in the workforce is linked not only to income levels, but also to self-esteem, social inclusion, and social status.	劳动力参与度不但与收入水平相联系，也与自尊、社会包容和社会地位相联系。


Being left out of the labor market increases the risk of poverty and poor health, and the longer unemployment lasts, the more damaging the effects.	游离于劳动力市场外增加了贫困和健康恶化的风险，失业状态维持越久，伤害就越大。


Young people who are unemployed have fewer opportunities later in life – representing a waste of education and skills that has a detrimental effect on national economies.	没有工作的年轻人在日后的生活中的机会也更少——这是对教育和技能的浪费，对国民经济造成消极影响。


To be sure, some EU countries have managed to weather the crisis reasonably well.	平心而论，一些欧盟国家在抵挡危机方面做得相当出色。


According to a new Social Justice ranking by the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Sustainable Governance Indicators (SGI) project, Austria, Denmark, and Germany top the list in terms of labor-market access, followed by Sweden and Finland.	根据博斯曼基金会（Bertelsmann Stiftung）可持续治理指数（Sustainable Governance Indicators ，SGI）项目的新社会公正排名，奥地利、丹麦和德国在劳动力市场易入性方面名列三甲，随后是瑞典和芬兰。


But even in these countries, there is room for improvement.	但即使在这些国家，也存在改善空间。


Denmark, for example, once served as a model for labor-market reform.	比如，丹麦曾经被视为劳动力市场改革典范。


Since the start of the euro crisis, however, unemployment has risen – from 3.5% in 2008 to 6.4% in November 2014.	但是，自欧元危机爆发以来，丹麦失业率也有所上升——从2008年的3. 5%增加到2014年11月的6.


Germany has radically reduced its unemployment rate in the last decade, even during the economic crisis.	德国在过去十年中大幅降低了失业率，即使在经济危机时期也是如此。


After years of high and long-term structural unemployment, the country implemented a series of labor-market and other reforms beginning in 2003, turning its economy into one of the top performers in the EU.	在经历了多年的长期高结构性失业后，从2003年开始，德国实施了一系列劳动力市场和其他改革，其经济也成为欧盟表现最好的经济之一。


The German system of vocational training has matched the skills of the country’s workforce to the needs of its firms, contributing to low youth unemployment.	德国的职业培训体系将该国劳动力技能与企业需求相匹配，有助于降低年轻人失业率。


But one troubling factor remains: the emergence of a dual labor market, in which low-wage and temporary workers find it hard to transfer out of inadequate working conditions into the mainstream labor market.	但一个麻烦的因素仍然存在：双面劳动力市场的出现，低薪临时工人难以跳出不充分的工作条件，进入主流劳动力市场。


Dual labor markets are a problem throughout the EU.	双面劳动力市场问题在整个欧盟都存在。


Austria has dealt with the issue best, according to the SGI study: only 8.1% of temporary employees surveyed had taken temporary work because they could not find permanent positions.	根据SGI研究，在处理这一问题上表现最佳的是奥地利：只有8. 1%的受访问临时工是因为无法找到固定工作才做临时工的。


Germany ranks a distant second, with 21% of those surveyed saying they would prefer a permanent position.	德国位于列第二，但与奥地利差距明显：21%的受访问临时工说更愿意找固定工作。


In crisis-stricken southern Europe, the problem is even worse.	在受危机冲击的南欧，这一问题更加严重。


In Spain and Cyprus, more than 90% of people in temporary positions cannot find permanent employment.	在西班牙和塞浦路斯，90%的临时工无法找到固定工作。


Another problem in top-ranked Germany and Austria is the lack of educational opportunities for certain groups, which contributes to a lack of opportunity and mobility in the labor market.	名列前茅的德国和奥地利的另一个问题是特定人群的教育机会的缺失，这造成劳动力市场缺少机会和流动性。


In Austria, children are divided from fourth grade into separate education streams.	在奥地利，孩子们从四年级开始进入不同的教育序列。


As a result, their later educational development is set in stone from an early age.	结果，他们的后续教育发展在年幼时就已经决定。


The social status of parents often determines their children’s ability to access higher education.	父母的社会地位通常决定了孩子是否能获得更高程度的教育。


Children of higher-income parents and of parents who attended tertiary institutions are far more likely to graduate from university.	高收入父母的孩子和拥有高等教育学历的父母的孩子大学毕业的概率要高得多。


In Germany, educational opportunities for children from immigrant and low-income families are fewer than in many other economically advanced countries.	在德国，移民和低收入家庭孩子的教育机会比其他许多经济发达国家都要少。


Labor-market conditions for immigrants are also a troublesome issue in Scandinavian countries, which otherwise perform well in enabling access to employment.	在斯堪的纳维亚国家，移民所面临的劳动力市场条件也是个麻烦问题，尽管它们在普及就业方面表现出色。


In Denmark, non-Western immigrants experience higher unemployment rates and lower educational achievement than others.	在丹麦，非西方移民的失业率更高，教育成就更低。


Similarly, despite Sweden’s excellent record on non-discrimination in general, immigrants find it difficult to integrate into Swedish society and face disadvantages in the labor market relative to native Swedes.	类似地，尽管瑞典总体无歧视记录十分出色，但移民仍难以融入瑞典社会，相对土生土长的瑞典人仍要面临劳动力市场劣势。


Moreover, though Sweden has one of the EU’s highest employment rates, it has failed to tackle its longstanding problem of youth unemployment, which currently stands at 23%.	此外，尽管瑞典的就业率名列欧盟前茅，但它也没能处理好长期存在的年轻人失业问题，目前年轻人失业率高达23%。


In Spain and Greece, youth unemployment is above 50%, and the situation is not much better in crisis-hit Cyprus, Portugal, Italy, and Croatia.	在西班牙和希腊，年轻人失业率超过50%，受危机冲击的塞浦路斯、葡萄牙、意大利和克罗地亚情况也很糟糕。


In the EU as a whole, youth unemployment stood at a dispiriting 21.9% in November.	从欧盟总体看，11月年轻失业率是令人沮丧的21. 9% 。


According to one study, this costs the EU €150 billion ($183 billion) per year in lost wages and spending, in addition to the hardship suffered by the many young people who are unable to find work.	一份研究显示，这会造成每年1,500亿欧元的工资和支出损失，除此之外，大量无法找到工作的年轻人还将饱受生活之苦。


In February 2013, EU leaders launched a Youth Employment Initiative, with a budget of €6 billion, to help alleviate the problem.	2013年2月，欧盟领导人推出了年轻人就业计划（Youth Employment Initiative），该计划预算60亿欧元，旨在解决年轻人就业问题。


But German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted in June 2014 that the initiative has so far been a failure.	但2014年6月，德国总理默克尔承认，到目前为止，该计划是一场失败。


The EU’s most recent jobs summit did not provide much in the way of new ideas.	欧盟最近的就业峰会也没有提出多少新办法。


The EU has said that young people should not be out of employment or education for more than four months; but no progress has been made toward making this a reality.	欧盟说，年轻人不应该被排除在就业和教育之外超过四个月； 但在实现这一目标方面我们看不到进展。


Unless new thinking is adopted soon, Europe’s many unemployed young people risk becoming a lost generation.	除非马上采取新观念，否则欧洲的大量失业青年有可能沦为失去的一代。


Europe’s Sovereignty Illusion	欧洲的主权幻觉


MADRID ‒ The European Union has taken democratic integration – driven by the free will of its members, rather than military force – to unprecedented levels, securing its place at the forefront of institutional innovation.	马德里——欧盟由成员自由意志、而非军事力量推动的民主整合已经站在了制度创新的最前沿，并且达到了前所未有的高度。


But today, sentiment in the EU seems to lean toward “conflict," rather than “cooperation."	但今天，欧盟的情绪与其说倾向于“合作”，还不如说更倾向于“冲突”。


Some member states are touting their sovereign right to embrace unilateral action, even as they request financial assistance, while others are acting as mere creditors, ignoring the social suffering that the current debt crisis has caused.	某些成员国在伸手索要资金援助的同时仍在鼓吹自己单方面行动的主权权利，还有些则像是纯粹的债主，无视当前债务危机已经造成的社会痛苦。


To return to the path of innovative integration, the EU needs a new framework for public debate that underpins effective cooperation among partners and friends, instead of fueling conflict among seemingly irreconcilable rivals.	要想回到创新一体化的道路上来，欧洲需要建立能支持合作伙伴和友国间有效合作的全新公众讨论框架，而不是任其助长对手间看似不可调和的冲突。


Overall, European integration has been a harmonious, ordered, and just process.	总体而言，欧洲一体化进程可以算得上和谐、有序和公正。


Less wealthy member countries benefited from tools like the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund, which provided considerable resources to enable them to boost their per capita income.	不太富裕的成员国受益于诸如结构基金和团结基金，利用基金所提供的丰富资源提高本国的人均收入。


But protracted economic crisis has changed their citizens' perspective, with a rising proportion viewing EU membership as more costly than beneficial.	但长期难以缓解的经济危机已经改变了上述国家民众的看法，有越来越多的人认为欧盟成员国资格起到了更多的负面作用。


Not surprisingly, that change has fueled demands for more “national sovereignty," which populist parties, such as Greece's newly elected Syriza, have translated into electoral success.	不出所料，上述变化激起了强化“民族主权”的要求，而民粹主义政党，如希腊新当选的激进左翼联盟，已经利用这样的变化取得了选举的成功。


All of these parties, whether on the right or the left, place national sovereignty at odds with the so-called “external powers," and seek to tilt the EU's political axis accordingly.	无论右翼还是左翼党派都把国家主权与所谓的“外部势力”尖锐对立，并试图扭转欧盟的政治核心轴。


This reductionist view is the only glue holding the Greek ruling coalition together.	正是这种极度简化的观点成为凝聚希腊执政联盟的唯一力量。


In this trendy discourse, sovereignty means “empowerment," and EU institutions are “undemocratic."	在上文提到的时髦言论中，主权和“权力”是一回事，而欧盟制度则等同于“不民主”。


Sovereignty has thus become a particularly seductive concept for citizens of the southern member countries, who have increasingly come to believe that the EU's “rigid" structure has been imposed upon them.	主权因此成为对南欧成员国民众极具诱惑力的概念，这些人越来越相信他们被迫成为欧盟“僵化”结构的受害者。


Meanwhile, the northern EU countries are falling prey to a simplistic message of their own: that their southern counterparts are irresponsible spendthrifts who should be left to solve their own problems.	此外，北欧国家也无法抵挡他们自己的简化言论：那就是南欧盟国都是不负责任的败家子，他们留下的烂摊子应该让他们自己收。


At the root of both beliefs is the fear and uncertainty generated by globalization, with citizens concerned for their security and unsure of their place in the world.	全球化造成的恐惧和不确定性是这两种看法的根源所在，民众们担心自己的安全，无法确定自己在当今世界的位置。


But there is no going back to a global order defined by isolated nation-states – even if one would not know it from the populist rhetoric dominating today's discussions.	但就算人们无法从今天占主导地位的民粹主义言论中意识到，回到以孤立民族国家为特点的全球秩序已经不可能了。


Of course, EU members are sovereign states, and they negotiate among themselves as such.	当然，欧盟成员国都是主权国家，各自有着独立的谈判地位。


But they are also interdependent, with each member's actions shaped by external factors.	但他们同时也相互依存，每个成员国的所作所为都受制于外部因素。


This interdependence stems not only from a shared currency: it is the fruit of endless socioeconomic interactions that weave the EU member states into a dynamic web.	这样的相互依存不仅来自于拥有共同货币：更来自于无休无止的社会经济互动使欧盟成员国铸就的动态网络。


That is why a public debate that considers only two extreme scenarios – imposed integration or absolute national sovereignty – is misleading and dangerous.	因此只公开讨论强制一体化或绝对国家主权这两种极端状况既危险又极具误导性。


It drives participants into opposite corners, setting them up for conflict – an outcome that should be avoided at all costs.	它把参与者驱赶到对立的角落，导致他们不可避免地发生冲突——我们应该不惜一切代价避免这样的后果。


There is a middle ground.	其实还存在一条中间道路。


The EU should commit to continue democratizing its institutions, as it did when it gave the democratically elected European Parliament a voice in the selection of the European Commission president.	欧盟应继续推进制度民主化，就像允许民主选举产生的欧洲议会在选择在欧盟委员会主席时有发言权一样。


For their part, EU member countries should recognize that they, as sovereign actors, chose integration, because the benefits of pooling their sovereignty outweighed the costs.	而作为对手方的欧盟成员国则应当意识到，因为主权集中的收益大过成本，它们作为主权国家自愿选择了整合。


European institutions reflect this dynamic.	欧洲的各项制度都体现了这种的趋向。


The European Stability Mechanism, for example, is a collective project aimed at safeguarding the eurozone's financial stability, not an instrument of domination or confrontation.	比方说欧洲稳定机制集体计划就是为了维护欧元区的金融稳定，而不是为了搞统治或搞对抗。


The ESM's resources belong to everyone, just as one country's bankruptcy affects everyone.	欧洲稳定机制的资源属于所有人，就像国家破产每个人都要遭殃。


When financially stable countries disregard the challenges facing their struggling counterparts, they are acting against their own interests.	如果经济稳定的国家无视那些在困难中挣扎的盟国，他们自身的利益也同样会受到影响。


Likewise, the economic transfers conducted through the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund involved sovereign, democratic countries.	同样，结构基金和团结基金进行经济转移的主体是主权、民主国家。


And it was the sovereign governments of Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, and Ireland that requested bailouts from their European partners.	向欧洲伙伴国申请救助的是希腊、葡萄牙、塞浦路斯和爱尔兰等国的主权政府。 希腊已经拿到了占本国GDP 117%的援助；


Greece has already received aid worth 117% of its GDP; in Cyprus, the figure is 55.9%, followed by Ireland and Portugal, at 45.1% and 46.6%, respectively.	塞浦路斯占GDP的55. 9%，紧接着是爱尔兰和葡萄牙，分别占各自GDP的 45.


Clearly, interdependency cannot be avoided; nor can the responsibility than it entails.	显然，既然相互依存无法避免； 那么就必须承担相应的责任。


The idea that, when the going gets tough, an EU country can solve all of its problems by reverting to pure national sovereignty is an intellectual fallacy, a political chimera, and thus a source of considerable social frustration.	只要碰到困难就退而幻想纯国家主权能解决欧盟各国所有问题其实不过是一种认识谬误和政治幻想，因此会在社会上带来相当大的负面影响。


Sovereignty does not negate interdependence.	主权和相互依存并不是排他选项。


It is time for countries to abandon the notion that there is some magical form of sovereignty that will allow them to escape their responsibilities as EU members without incurring serious costs.	各国应彻底放弃某种神乎其神的主权形式能使其既不用承担高昂成本又可以逃脱身为欧盟成员国责任的幻想。


In the real world of Europe today, debtors cannot break agreements that they have made in exchange for aid, and creditors must recognize the need to continue contributing resources to the bailout fund.	在当今欧洲的现实世界中，债务国不能撕毁为求得援助所签署的协议，而债权国也必须认识到有必要继续为救助基金提供资金援助。


It would also help if creditors understood that their contributions, like their decades of support to cohesion funds, will not impoverish them (by, say, depleting their public pensions).	此外债权国还应当明白就像他们数十年来对团结基金的出资，类似的援助资金不会把他们的口袋掏光（比如将国内的公共养老金花光）。


On the contrary, creditor countries will benefit from more stable, solvent commercial partners for their exports.	相反，更加稳定、偿付能力更强的出口伙伴也能够惠及债权国。


The myth of sovereignty has been perpetuated for far too long in the EU, fueling dangerous nationalist sentiment and fear of the “other."	主权神话在欧盟已太过根深蒂固，助长了危险的民族主义情绪和对“他人”的惧怕。


Member countries, beginning with Greece, must acknowledge that interdependency is unavoidable – and, indeed, desirable, if managed properly.	会员国，首先从希腊开始，必须承认相互依赖不可避免——事实上如果管理得当，甚至可以取得很好的效果。


As Greece's prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, admitted recently, “Europe is a space for negotiation and mutually beneficial compromises."	希腊总理亚历克西斯·齐普拉斯最近承认，“欧洲是个注重协商和互惠妥协的地方。


Integration was a choice – and a positive one.	”融合是共同选择——而且充满了积极意义。


Europe has much work to do to strengthen the multiple identities needed to avoid conflict.	欧洲在强化多重身份，避免冲突方面还有许多工作要做。


Whether we are from the north or the south, from Germany or Greece, we are all European.	无论来自北部还是南部，德国还是希腊，我们都是欧洲的民众。


And we are richer for it.	而且欧洲给了我们更加多彩和富足的生活。


Migration Beyond Crisis Mode	超越危机状态的移民


MADRID – Over the past seven years, Europe has been in crisis mode almost without interruption.	马德里——过去七年来，欧洲一直处在危机状态，几乎就没有间断过。


From Ukraine to Greece, events have led the continent from the frying pan to the fire and back again, with all of the attendant summitry, declarations, and brinkmanship.	从乌克兰到希腊的一系列事件让欧洲大陆从受尽煎熬到面对熊熊战火，期间伴随着连绵不断的首脑会议、正式宣言和边缘政策。


Now, it is a migration crisis – one that is unlikely to be resolved in the foreseeable future – that is commanding the European Union’s attention.	现在需要欧盟关注的移民危机已经爆发——上述危机不太可能在可以预见的未来顺利解决。


But, if Europe is to respond effectively, it must move beyond crisis mode to understand both what it is facing and what it wants to achieve.	但如果欧洲想要采取有效对策，就必须超越危机状态理解自身的目标和现实局势。


It is indisputable that migration deserves the EU’s focus.	移民应该引起欧盟的关注已经是不争的事实。


Not only are migrant flows into Europe shattering records from one month to the next; migrants’ primary entry points are changing as well.	欧洲移民人数不仅月月打破记录； 移民的主要进入点也在不断变化之中。


Meanwhile, the already-hazy lines between asylum-seekers, refugees, displaced persons, and purely economic migrants are becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish at all.	此外，寻求庇护者、难民、流离失所者和单纯经济移民之间本已模糊的界限变得愈加难以区分。


The dangerous conditions of the migrants’ journey constitute a serious humanitarian crisis.	移民之路的危险状况构成了严重的人道主义危机。


Since the beginning of this year, roughly 2,500 people have died attempting to cross the Mediterranean, to say nothing of gruesome scenes like the recent discovery of 71 decomposing bodies in an abandoned truck in Austria.	今年年初以来，约有2，500人死于试图穿越地中海，更不用说最近像奥地利一辆废弃卡车中发现71具腐烂尸体那样的可怕场景。


Thousands more languish in makeshift camps with little or no support.	成千上万人滞留在临时搭建的帐篷中几乎得不到任何支持。


To make matters worse, there has been a steady stream of migration-related violence across Europe, from an arson attack on a planned refugee shelter in Germany to police brutality against migrants in Macedonia and Hungary.	更糟的是，从德国有人策划纵火袭击难民收容所到马其顿和匈牙利警方针对移民的暴力事件，欧洲一直就存在着针对移民的暴力行为。


The port of Calais has become a chokepoint of the crisis, with migrants desperately trying to force their way onto trucks and trains bound for the United Kingdom.	加来港已经成为危机的瓶颈，移民在那里拼命试图强行登上开往英国的卡车和火车。


The situation screams “emergency” – and has triggered a response by the EU.	目前局势时时处处昭示着“紧急”——欧盟也因此采取了措施。 最引人注目的是，欧盟已将海卫行动的预算增加了三倍，目的是加强边境安全；


Most notably, the EU has tripled the budget of Operation Triton, designed to strengthen border security; launched an EU-wide naval operation against human smugglers and traffickers in the Mediterranean (EUNAVFOR Med); and allocated additional funds to overwhelmed frontline member countries.	在地中海启动了欧洲范围内针对 走私贩运人口的海军行动（EUNAVFOR Med）； 并为不堪重负的一线会员国划拨了额外的资金。


Some individual member countries have also acted.	某些成员国也采取了行动。


Most notably, Germany, despite facing the arrival of a predicted 800,000 asylum-seekers this year, has suspended implementation of the EU’s Dublin Regulation, which would have led to the deportation of thousands of Syrian refugees.	其中以德国最为显著，该国在今年面临 800,000名庇护寻求者入境的情况下已暂停执行可能导致数千名叙利亚难民被驱逐的欧盟都柏林公约。


But these measures, though helpful, are far from adequate.	但上述措施虽然不无帮助，但却远远解决不了问题。


In fact, they are examples of crisis-mode policymaking, which tends to favor impressive-seeming stopgap measures (not to mention lofty declarations that can verge on hollowness or hyperbole), instead of real solutions.	事实上，它们是危机模式决策活生生的例子，相比于真正的解决办法，更倾向于采取看似令人印象深刻的权宜性措施（更不用说称得上空洞或夸张的豪言壮语）。


By allowing EU leaders to avoid acknowledging the long-term nature of the migrant challenge, this approach weakens their motivation to take collective action.	这种方法允许欧盟领导人避免承认移民挑战的长期性，并因此削弱了他们采取集体行动的动机。


And, indeed, a reluctance to cooperate was on display at last month’s meeting of the EU’s Justice and Home Affairs Council, where representatives failed to produce an arrangement on how to distribute the paltry 40,000 refugees that the European Council agreed to accept in June.	事实上，上月召开的欧盟司法和内政事务委员会已经表现出不愿合作的姿态，会议代表未能就如何分配欧洲理事会在6月协议安排的区区40，000名难民达成一致。


The fact is that the pressure of migration is here to stay.	事实上，移民压力仍将持续下去。


After all, the factors driving hundreds of thousands of people to risk everything to get to Europe are nowhere near being resolved.	毕竟，驱动成千上万人甘冒一切风险奔赴欧洲的因素根本没有消除。 伊拉克和叙利亚依然陷于暴力和混乱；


Iraq and Syria remain mired in violence and chaos; Eritrea is in the grip of a repressive regime; and Libya has become a collapsed state.	厄立特里亚处于专制政权的掌控之中； 利比亚则成了崩溃国家的典型。


Add to that weak or non-existent governance in much of Africa (and the concomitant security threats and bleak economic prospects), and it is difficult to imagine how the tide of migrants will be slowed.	再加上非洲大部分地区脆弱或几乎感觉不到的治理（以及由此造成的安全威胁和黯淡的经济前景），很难想象移民潮能够得到遏制。


The chance of a better life – or any life at all – is all but irresistible to the people trapped in these areas.	美好生活的机会——或者任何生的机会——在这些地区的民众看来都无法抗拒。


No matter how strong the EU’s external borders are – though, of course, better monitoring and patrolling measures are needed – the flow of migrants will continue to overwhelm their capacity, endangering the openness that is so fundamental to European unification, beginning with the Schengen acquis, which guarantees freedom of movement, without border controls, among 26 European countries.	无论欧盟的对外边界多么强大——尽管改善监管和巡逻措施确有必要——移民人数仍将继续超过他们的防御能力，从而对自申根协议始的开放这一欧洲统一的基础构成威胁，申根协议确保欧盟26个成员国民众在没有边界控制的情况下能够自由迁徙。


If Europe is to adapt to the migrant challenge, and design realistic and productive solutions that heed European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s call for “collective courage,” it must target the root causes and enablers of the current migration wave.	欧盟要想应对移民挑战，设计出欧盟委员会主席让-克劳德·容克称之为“集体勇气”的现实有效的解决办法，就必须对当前移民潮的根源和促成因素发起攻击。


Specifically, the EU must support governance reform, economic development, and the establishment of basic human security in the countries that migrants are fleeing.	具体而言，欧盟必须支持治理改革和经济发展，并在移民逃离的国家保障最基本的人权。


At the same time, efforts are needed to strengthen deterrence near and en route to Europe’s borders, through partnerships with major source and transit countries.	同时，需要通过与主要来源国和过境国建立伙伴关系，强化前往欧盟边境途中和靠近欧盟边境的威慑力。


Legal channels of migration should be opened for those who either deserve protection under international law or possess skills that could benefit European societies.	应当为那些按国际法规定理应得到保护或掌握可能有利于欧洲社��技能的人开辟合法的移民途径。


For migrants who reach EU territory, are not entitled to international legal protection, and lack such vital skills, repatriation regimes must be established.	必须为没有资格享受国际法保护、也不具备上述重要技能的移民设立遣返机制。


All of this will require an update of the legal categorizations of migrants, as well as burden-sharing within the EU, which is glaringly absent at the moment.	所有这一切都需要更新移民的法律分类并实现欧盟内部责任共担，这在现在看来都是极其缺乏的机制。


The EU cannot simply wait out the current migration crisis by implementing piecemeal and panicked measures in the hope that the problem will eventually resolve itself.	欧盟不能简单通过零零星星地实施恐慌性措施，等待当前的移民危机自己过去。


What is needed is careful consideration of how best to balance humanitarian imperatives with security concerns, domestic social welfare with international legal obligations, and member countries’ duties to one another with their responsibilities to their own citizens.	现在需要认真思考如何平衡人道主义原则与安全问题、国际法律义务与国内社会福利、各成员国间的相互义务以及对国内民众的责任问题。


Only then can leaders design the kind of thoughtful, comprehensive, and forward-looking strategy that the migrant crisis – and, indeed, the EU’s own survival – demands.	只有这样，领导人才能设计出深思熟虑、全面的前瞻性战略，解决移民危机和欧盟自身的生存问题。


Putting People First in Europe	构建以人为本的欧洲


PARIS – The same type of populist discontent that fueled Brexit in the United Kingdom is on the rise throughout Europe, suggesting that policymakers have lost sight of the European project’s central objective: to ensure the wellbeing of all Europeans.	发自巴黎——推动了英国脱欧的那股民粹主义不满情绪正弥漫在整个欧洲上空，让人们意识到政策制定者们早已偏离了欧洲计划的核心宗旨：为全体欧洲人造福。


As the first United Nations Human Development Report put it in 1990: “People are the real wealth of a nation.”	正如在1990年发布的第一份《联合国人类发展报告》所指出的那样：“人民才是一个国家真正的财富。 ”


The best way to capitalize on the people of a country or region is through social equity.	让一个国家或地区的人们充分发挥自身能力的最好方法莫过于实现社会公平。


Amartya Sen, in his magisterial The Idea of Justice, concluded that true social equity requires not equal treatment for all, but rather unequal treatment in favor of the poor and most disadvantaged.	而阿马蒂亚·森（Amartya Sen）在其名作《正义的理念》中指出，真正的社会公平不是要求平等对待所有人，而是要给予穷人和那些遭遇逆境者更好的待遇。


Mere equity in public finance or in the eyes of the law is not enough if we don’t also consider the different starting points for individuals and groups in society.	仅仅在公共财政或法律面前平等是不够的，还得考虑个人和社会群体在竞争起点上的不同。


Recognizing this, successive UN development reports since 1990 have made the case that both economies and societies are stronger when public policy puts people’s wellbeing first.	有见及此，自1990年以来的每一份联合国发展报告都表明如果某地的公共政策能把民生放在首位，则其经济和政治都会变得更加强大。


However, this outlook hasn’t yet taken root in the EU’s elite policymaking circles, where well-meaning economists and politicians often believe they are doing the right thing by balancing budgets and reining in spending, usually by cutting health, education, and infrastructure budgets.	但这种理念却尚未在欧盟的精英决策圈里扎根，那些心怀善意的经济学家和政治家的人相信自己正在通过平衡预算和控制支出（通常由削减在医疗、 教育和基础设施预算）等手段做着正确的事。


These policymakers, with little empirical evidence, believe that fiscal prudence today will lead to a stronger economy tomorrow.	这些政策制定者在缺乏实证证据的情况下都认为今天的财政削减将带来明天的经济繁荣。


This is the thinking behind the current policy mix in Europe, where fiscal austerity is combined with “structural reform,” meaning less spending on the social safety net and less regulation to protect workers.	这是隐藏在当前欧洲政策组合背后的理念，将财政紧缩与“结构性改革”相结合，减少构建社会安全网的支出，放宽那些保障劳动者权益的规定。


Obviously, the costs of these policies are mostly borne by the poor and the middle class.	而这些政策的成本显然主要由穷人和中产阶层来承担。


But there are several other problems with this approach as well.	但这种手段会引发其他几个问题。


First, it isn’t good for most people’s incomes.	首先，它对大多数人的收入状况不利。


When the Oxford University economist Tony Atkinson looked at the UK’s economic performance through the lens of inequality, the 1980s, generally considered a strong decade in terms of growth, appeared much worse; and the 1990s, regarded as a low-growth decade, appeared much better.	牛津大学经济学家托尼 · 阿特金森（Tony Atkinson）就通过不平等状况来观察英国的经济表现，人们一般认为经济增长强劲的1980年代，不平等状况却不断恶化； 而这一点在增长低迷的1990年代却有所改善。


Atkinson’s findings point to a central question: Who benefits from growth – the many or the few?	阿特金森的调查结果指向一个中心问题︰ 谁从增长中受益— —多数人还是少数人？


If an economy can be said to be growing when a small minority receives most of the gains while everyone else’s lot stays the same or decreases, the concept of economic growth loses much of its meaning.	如果所谓的经济增长是少数人囊括大部分收益，而其他人只能维持原状甚至减少，经济增长的概念就没有意义了。


This leads to a second problem with the prevailing paradigm, which is that it puts abstract economic indicators before actual people.	这又引出了现行范式下的第二个问题，就是把抽象的经济指标放在真实的民众之上。


Because gross domestic product is the preferred gauge of any economy’s value, many factors that contribute to human wellbeing are ignored, and spending on fundamental needs, such as health and education, comes to be seen as an expense rather than an essential investment.	因为国内生产总值是衡量任何经济价值的首选项，许多为民众福祉作出贡献的很多因素被忽视���，而那些如卫生和教育类的基本需求开支则来被视为成本，而不是一项至关重要的投资。


If policymakers viewed such spending as an investment, they could start thinking about how to maximize returns.	如果政策制定者认为这种支出视为一种投资，他们就会开始考虑如何将回报最大化。


Like all investments in human or fixed capital, there may be diminishing returns at high levels.	像所有对人力资源或固定资本的投资那样，越高的投资水平可能伴随着收益的递减。


So, rather than funneling economic benefits to the rich and assuming it will “trickle down,” policymakers should assess whether investing in opportunities for the poor actually does more for economic growth.	因此政策制定者与其将经济利益都导向富人并假设这些好处能“漏点下去”，应评估是否投资为穷人创造机会能更多地促进经济增长。


In the US, the 1944 Servicemen’s Readjustment Act (better known as the GI Bill) was a success because it provided training for those most in need of it, enabling returning World War II veterans to re-enter the productive economy.	美国1944年的《军人转业安置法案》之所以成功，因为它为那些最需要培训的人提供了支持，让归国二战老兵顺利融入生产性经济。


The bill created a more educated workforce and ushered in a period of rising incomes for most Americans.	该法案创建了一支受过良好教育的劳动力队伍，为大多数美国人迎来了一个收入增长的年代。


A third problem with the current approach is that its central objective is not full employment.	目前手段的第三个问题是其核心目的不是实现充分就业。


It is time to return to the macroeconomic policies of the 1950s and 1960s, which recognized the benefits of full employment in fostering social stability and sustainable growth.	如今是时候回归 1950~60 年代的宏观经济政策，认识到充分就业对促进社会稳定和可持续增长的好处。


As the Nordic model shows, high employment is good for the economy because it ensures adequate tax revenues to finance high levels of social investment, which creates a virtuous cycle.	正如北欧模式所展现的那样，高就业率是有益于经济的，因为它能创造足够的税收来资助高水平的社会投资，最终创建一个良性的循环。


Many European countries are now in a vicious cycle instead, with austerity policies worsening the problem of youth unemployment.	许多欧洲国家如今却反而陷入了一种恶性循环，由于财政紧缩政策而导致青年失业问题进一步恶化。


This is not only unnecessary, but also wasteful, because it risks creating a generation that will be ill equipped to drive future growth.	这不仅毫无必要，还是一种浪费，因为它很可能产生整整一代人因为没有足够的技能储备而无力推动未来的经济增长。


As John Maynard Keynes pointed out in 1937, “The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.”	正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）在1937年指出的那样：“繁荣，而不是衰退时期，才是财政部实施紧缩政策的正确时间。


In the current slump, European countries should be investing in their human capital to spur their economies’ potential growth.	”在当前的经济衰退情况下，欧洲各国更应投资于人力资本来刺激经济的潜在增长。


The fourth problem is that European countries’ fiscal policies do not emphasize creativity and innovation, which benefits not only from a conducive regulatory environment, but also from high-quality education and infrastructure.	第四个问题是欧洲国家的财政政策并不强调创意和创新，而这两者不仅从受益于有利的监管环境，还来自于高质量的教育和基础设施。


Governments need to reduce bureaucratic red tape so that entrepreneurs can take more risks.	各国政府需要减少官僚作风好让企业家可以承担更多风险。


But breakthrough technology companies such as Apple, Facebook, and Twitter also depend on people who had access to well-funded education systems.	但如苹果，脸书和推特这些突破性技术公司也取决于企业与高水平教育体系的交流，而这类体系是需要充足资金去构建的。


And while there is a growing “tech for good” sector in Europe, it will succeed only if it is supported by up-to-date infrastructure, which generally requires public outlays.	虽然欧洲有越来越多的“高品质科技”部门，但它们需要在最新型基础设施的支撑下才能成功，这一般就要依仗公共支出。


Policymakers in Europe (and elsewhere) need to adjust their thinking – especially their fiscal thinking – to put people first.	欧洲 （和其他地方） 的政策制定者需要调整自身思维——尤其是在财政方面——并转向以人为本。


Governments that make it their central objective to maximize human wellbeing end up not only encouraging higher economic growth, but also nurturing healthier politics.	那些将实现民众幸福最大化的政府最终不仅会获得更高的经济增长，同时也会孕育更健康的政治氛围。


Britain’s Watershed Year	英国的转折之年


LONDON – On a grey and rain-sodden London day at the beginning of 2016, it can be tough to find reason for optimism.	伦敦——在2016年初伦敦灰暗、雨雾蒙蒙的日子里，找到乐观的理由恐怕很难。 白天太阳照样升起。


The sun still comes up in the morning.	淅淅沥沥地阴雨大概也总会停歇。


At some point, it will presumably stop raining.	我的孙儿们就像一缕阳光般温暖；


My grandchildren offer a ray of sunshine; all Star Wars fans, they can just about convince me that, like Princess Leia’s dissident forces, the good guys will eventually win.	他们全都是星战迷，他们大概能让我相信，像莉亚公主领导的持不同政见者部队一样，好人最终能够战胜坏人。


Newspaper headlines, however, are pretty good at tempering such sentiments.	但读新闻头条的感觉却和这样的乐观情绪恰恰相反。


With economic prospects in China and Brazil looking distinctly gloomy, the world economy is at risk of flat-lining – or worse.	中国和巴西的经济前景明显低落，世界经济正处于一蹶不振——甚至全面崩溃的边缘。


Western Asia is in turmoil, and Saudi Arabia and Iran have shown no sign that they are prepared to work together to ease Sunni-Shia hostilities.	西亚地区一片混乱，没有任何迹象表明沙特和伊朗准备合作缓解逊尼和什叶派的敌对行动。


Migrants continue to arrive by the thousand at Europe’s fragile borders.	成千上万的移民继续涌向欧洲脆弱不堪的边境。


North Korea claims that it is building a bigger and better nuclear weapon.	朝鲜声称一种更大更好的核武器正在制造之中。


The good news from last month’s United Nations climate change conference in Paris has been buried in an avalanche of geopolitical gloom.	上月联合国气候变化会议的利好消息已经被淹没在地缘政治黑暗的雪崩之中。


And things could get even worse by the end of this year.	而且年底局势可能会进一步失控。


In the United Kingdom, where a referendum on whether to remain in the European Union is likely to take place before the end of the year, things could get a lot worse.	因为英国很可能年底前要就是否留在欧盟举行全民公决，局势可能变得更加棘手。


If, deluded by mendacity and make-believe, Britain votes to quit the EU, the referendum – introduced as a way to placate the growing number of anti-EU voices in the Conservative Party – will have blown up Prime Minister David Cameron’s cabinet and done irreparable harm to Britain.	如果英国在谎言和伪装的欺骗下投票退出欧盟，此次公投——其目的是平息保守党内部越来越高涨的反欧盟声浪——将彻底击溃首相戴维·卡梅伦的内阁并为英国带来无法弥补的损失。


I don’t think it will happen.	我不认为这种情况将会发生。


But, then again, I wouldn’t have believed a few years ago, or even a few months ago, that the Republican Party in the United States would be choosing between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as its presidential nominee.	不过，话说回来，我也不会相信几年、甚或几个月前，美国共和党会在唐纳德·特朗普和特德·克鲁兹之间选择总统候选人。


Clearly, populist folly can eviscerate reason and common sense.	显而易见，民粹主义的愚蠢可以将理性和常识抹杀得干干净净。


A vote against EU membership, especially in such a dangerous international environment, truly would be irrational.	投票反对欧盟成员资格，特别是在如此危险的国际环境下，真的会是失去理性。


For starters, the argument that the UK could negotiate favorable terms for selling its goods in the EU makes little sense, as Europe’s single market matters far more to British exporters than the UK market matters to European businesses.	首先，英国可以谈判以优惠条件在欧盟内部出售其商品的提法就没有什么意义，因为欧洲统一市场对英国出口企业的意义远大于英国市场之于欧洲。


Claims that leaving the EU would enable the UK to pursue its own commercial interests, like Norway or Switzerland, fail to acknowledge that these countries have to accept the rules of Europe’s single market in order to access it – rules that they have no part in making.	称离开欧盟让能英国像挪威或瑞士一样追求自身商业利益的说法根本没有认识到上述国家进入欧盟统一市场先要接受他们自己根本无权制定的欧盟规则。


At the beginning, the Norwegians called it “fax democracy”: Instructions from Brussels would simply appear in Oslo government offices, to be implemented without debate.	一开始挪威人将其称之为“传真民主”：从布鲁塞尔发来的指令只会出现在奥斯陆政府办公室，并在未经讨论的情况下予以实行。


This, remarkably, is what British Euroskeptics call “sovereignty.”	值得注意的是，这就是英国欧洲怀疑论者所谓的“主权”。


But sovereignty is always a slippery concept.	但主权始终是个难以把握的概念。


Nationalists often argue as though it was akin to virginity – there one moment, gone the next.	民族主义者往往声称主权和童贞类似——这一秒还在，下一秒就已荡然无存。


But sovereignty is far from an absolute condition.	但主权远远不是一种绝对条件。


How much sovereignty does the UK enjoy as a net energy importer, with much of its future supply set to be provided by nuclear power stations in French and Chinese hands?	作为未来能源供应仰仗法中两国所掌握核电站的能源净进口国，英国究竟能够享受多少主权？


How sovereign is a country once the hedge funds and bond traders mark it down?	一旦被对冲基金和债券交易员盯上，一个国家又能有多少主权？


And what good is sovereignty when we face environmental threats that can be countered only through international cooperation?	而且在面对只能靠国际合作才能应对的环境威胁时，主权又有多大作用？


The idea of making all decisions unilaterally may sound nice, but it simply isn’t plausible in today’s integrated world.	单方面决定所有问题或许听上去不错，但在当今这个一体化的世界其实根本就不可能。


Even as the world’s fifth-largest economy, the UK probably would not find it easy to negotiate favorable trade deals with giants like America, Japan, and China.	即使身为世界第五大经济体，英国想与美国、日本和中国等巨头谈判有利的贸易协议恐怕也是难上加难。


In fact, if the UK decides to go it alone, big investors could soon rush to the exit.	事实上，如果英国决定自己单干，大型投资者可能很快就会急于退出。


By the end of this year, manufacturers could be trying to calculate how much of their plant they should move to the continent.	到年底，生产企业可能就会开始计算要把多少工厂转移到欧洲。


And by January, Britain, having just kicked the EU in the teeth, could find itself attempting to negotiate, under a new prime minister and cabinet, a new political and economic relationship with the EU’s 27 other members.	而到明年一月，刚刚给过欧盟当头一棒的英国可能就要在新首相及其内阁的领导下开始谈判，试图与欧盟其他27个成员国建立新的政治和经济关系。


It looks like mayhem to me.	我觉得这简直是乱成一锅粥。


Of course, it is possible that none of this will happen.	当然，可能这一切都还可以避免。


British voters could – as our closest friends and allies, from the US to Japan, have advised – choose to remain citizens of the real world.	英国选民可以接受美日等我们最亲密的朋友和盟国的建议，选择留在现实世界当中。


Following such a vote, the UK could begin to repair its reputation in the EU – a reputation that has been severely undermined by our prolonged status as the carping, semi-detached member of the club.	投票留在欧盟后，英国就可以开始修复其在欧盟声誉的进程——我们长久以来吹毛求疵、三心二意的俱乐部会员形象严重损害了英国的声誉。


Nowadays, even if another EU member agrees with the UK, it might not say so, in order to avoid being tainted by our toxic brand.	现在，即使其他欧盟成员国赞同英国的观点，它们可能也不会公开表态，因为害怕受到英国有毒品牌的玷污。


Changing negative perceptions does not mean that we must act against our interests.	改变负面看法并不意味着要放弃我们的利益。


It means that we must make clear our desire to pursue an agenda that suits others as well as us.	这意味着我们必须公开表态要制定既有利于别人也有利于我们自己的议程。


It means being constructive, instead of simply criticizing everything from the sidelines.	这意味着要扮演建设性的角色，而不是站在一边简单地加以批评。


In this spirit, Britain should be leading the effort to complete the single market.	本着这样的精神，英国应该在建设统一市场的过程中发挥领导作用。


We should be at the forefront of the campaign to complete the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the US.	我们应该成为与美国建设跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系的先锋。


We should be pressing for an EU energy policy that reinforces our security.	我们应该施压制定能够强化自身安全的欧盟能源政策。


We should be spearheading a European strategy to address the serious challenges facing our neighbors, as well as the countries of Western Asia and North Africa.	我们应该带头制定欧洲战略，解决邻国、以及西亚和北非诸国所面临的严重问题。


If we are doing all of this by the end of 2016, some good will have emerged in a year that seems likely to provide a lot of bad news.	如果我们在2016年底完成所有任务，那么在这充斥着坏消息的一年可能会有些好事发生。


Neville Cameron?	千古罪人卡梅伦？


LONDON – The European question is the grim reaper of British politics – dividing parties, debilitating governments, and destroying careers.	发自伦敦——欧洲问题堪称英国政坛的死穴——但凡触及此议题，则政党分裂，政府失势，许多人的政治生涯毁于一旦。


But never before have the stakes surrounding the question been so high.	然而这个问题所涉及的利害关系却从未如今天般严峻。


Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to hold a referendum – perhaps as early as June – on the United Kingdom’s continued membership in the European Union could bring down his government, destroy his political party, and literally tear his country apart.	因为首相戴维·卡梅伦就英国是否继续保持欧盟成员国资格问题举行公投的决定——最快会在6月启动——将可能推翻他的政府，毁灭他的政党，并撕裂其国家。


Cameron is doing all he can to renegotiate the terms of membership in order to persuade voters to choose to remain in the EU.	卡梅隆正在尽一切努力对成员国资格条款进行重新谈判，以说服选民选择留在欧盟。


But referendums are notoriously unpredictable.	但公投这东西的结果是谁也说不准的。


And there is no reason to believe that the storms of populism blowing across the continent will not make landfall in the UK.	至于席卷整个欧洲大陆的民粹主义风暴会不会登陆英国，也不好说。


A decision to leave the EU would fall like a sledgehammer on the British economy and greatly diminish its international stature.	脱离欧盟的决定会严重撼动英国经济并大大削弱其国际地位。


Far worse, it could lead to the dissolution of the UK.	更严重的是这可能导致英国陷入分裂。


The Scottish National Party has threatened to hold a second independence referendum if British voters decide to leave the EU.	苏格兰民族党就曾威胁要在英国选民决定离开欧盟后举行第二次公投。


This, the SNP’s leaders argue, would allow an independent Scotland to remain part of Europe, even as England, Wales, and Northern Ireland set out on their own.	其领导人认为就算英格兰，威尔士和北爱尔兰扬长而去，这还能让独立的苏格兰留在欧洲。


Were this to happen, the dismemberment of the UK would make Cameron’s legacy the worst of any prime minister in British history.	一旦这样的事情发生，英国的分裂就将使卡梅伦成为英国史上最糟糕的首相。


That might seem like a high bar, given that the title is usually associated with Neville Chamberlain, who famously tried to appease Adolf Hitler.	这个门槛似乎有点高，因为这么一个称号通常被授予试图以绥靖政策安抚希特勒的英国前首相内维尔·张伯伦（Neville Chamberlain）。


But while the stakes were certainly higher in Chamberlain’s case, at least his polices could be reversed before they destroyed the country (and Winston Churchill did just that).	虽然张伯伦所犯下的错误更加严重，但至少他的政策还可以在自己的国家被摧毁前被扭转过来（正如温斯顿·丘吉尔所为）。


If Cameron loses both the EU and Scottish referendums, his successors will not be able to put the EU or the UK back together again.	而一旦卡梅隆在欧盟和苏格兰公投上失算，他的继任者将无力把欧盟或英国重新联合在一起。


As Cameron fights to save his party and his country, a line from Oscar Wilde resonates: “For each man kills the thing he loves.”	在卡梅隆奋力拯救其政党和国家的时候，我脑中不禁浮现出王尔德的一句名言：“每一个男人都会杀死他所热爱的东西”。


The prime minister’s predicament is that his political strength depends on his ability to stretch the Conservative Party’s blanket over its uneasy bedfellows of flag-waving nationalists and free-market fundamentalists; but the European question pits one side against the other.	首相所面临的困境是，他的政治实力取决于他在保守党的大旗下团结狂热民族主义者和自由市场原教旨主义者的能力； 但欧洲问题却令后面两者纷争不断。


For capital and big business, EU membership is an economic imperative, offering access to 500 million consumers and reserves of cheap, qualified labor.	对于资本和大企业来说，欧盟成员国资格是经济上的必需品，直接通向5亿消费者以及合资格的廉价劳动力储备。


For nationalists, it is a threat, undermining British sovereignty and control over the country’s borders.	而在民族主义者眼中这东西是一个威胁，破坏了英国的主权以及对边界的控制力。


Cameron’s call for a referendum, first issued when he was in opposition, was an attempt to appease both sides, allowing each to stick to their principles while promising to give voters the final say.	当年卡梅伦第一次呼吁公投时还是在野，这样做只是为了安抚双方势力，既让他们得以各自保留自身的原则，同时还能把包袱甩给选民。


The trouble began when he became Prime Minister and was forced to pick a side.	谁知这却是麻烦的开始，因为一旦他成为首相，就得被迫站队。


Fortunately for Cameron, he has a lot going in his favor.	幸运的是，很多事情对卡梅隆还算有利。


The facts are clear: the UK’s economy, security, and international stature all benefit from EU membership.	事实相当清楚：英国的经济，安全和国际地位都因为其欧盟成员国身份而受益。


And broadly, the business community, trade unions, parliament, the media, and even a plurality of the British public all favor remaining in the EU.	同时大部分商界、工会、议会、媒体，甚至大多数英国公众都倾向于留在欧盟。


Meanwhile, opponents of EU membership have yet to make the case for a credible alternative.	与此同时，反对保留欧盟成员国的一方还未拿出一个可靠的替代方案。


Moreover, Cameron has an impressive track record of exceeding expectations.	此外，卡梅伦总能超出人们对他的预期。


Few predicted he would take control of his party when he launched his leadership campaign in 2005.	当他在2005年竞逐保守党党魁时，根本没多少人认为他能控制住自己的政党。


When the Conservatives came to power in 2010, many doubted that he would serve a full term as Prime Minister.	2010年保守党上台时，许多人怀疑他没法呆够一个完整的总理任期。


And even Cameron himself did not expect to win an outright majority in last year’s general election.	即便卡梅隆自己都也没想到能在去年的大选中赢得绝对多数。


But there is no guarantee that his winning streak will continue.	不过这也没法保证他的连胜纪录将延续下去。


The news from Europe has been unrelentingly grim, and it could ultimately sway the result of the referendum.	欧洲传来的消息都相当负面，并可能最终左右公投的结果。


The refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, and the lingering effects of the global economic crisis are all providing fuel for simmering nativist sentiment.	难民危机，恐怖袭击，以及全球经济危机的持续影响都在不断撩拨着本土主义情绪。


Worries over migration and the spectacle of a divided, dysfunctional Europe have benefited xenophobes and extremists across the continent.	对难民问题的忧虑和分裂失能的欧洲现状都对遍布这个大陆的排外和极端分子有利。


And terrorist attacks, by their very nature, are intended to provoke irrational backlashes (as evidenced by a recent referendum in Denmark, in which voters unexpectedly rejected a proposal to modify the country’s opt-outs from certain EU home-affairs regulations).	而恐怖袭击，就其本质来说，就是为了挑起非理性的对抗性反应（比如在最近丹麦的全民公决中选民就出人意料地否决了旨在让本国与欧盟就内部事务展开合作的修改提案）。


Cameron’s allies say he has only two modes of operation: complacency and panic.	卡梅伦的盟友说他只有两种行为模式：自满和恐慌。


So far, he has faced his referendum challenge calmly.	到目前为止，他还在平静地面对公投的挑战。


But that is likely to change as the vote approaches and the risk grows that he will be remembered as the leader who, to paraphrase Churchill, was given a choice between his party and his country, chose his party, and ended up losing both.	但是这很可能会随着公投临近而改变，而风险在于，卡梅隆有可能成为，照丘吉尔的话说，那个在自己的政党和国家之间选择了前者，却最终同时失去了一切的领导人。


A Lifeline for European Solidarity	欧洲团结的生命线


MADRID – A human tragedy is unfolding in the Mediterranean, with hundreds of thousands of refugees risking – and, in many cases, losing – their lives for the chance to find refuge in Europe.	马德里——一场人类悲剧正在地中海上演，数十万难民冒着生命危险——而且在很多情况下真的失去了生命——只为到欧洲避难。