Indeed, the Japan Defense Agency recently outlined three scenarios for a Chinese attack against Japan, and announced that it is planning to redeploy its troops from the north (where they were originally stationed to defend Japan against the former Soviet Union) to the south, facing China.	日本防卫厅最近抛出一份中国袭击日本的三种假想概要，并宣布它正准备面对中国自北（原日本驻军以抵御苏联保卫日本的地方）向南重新部署其军队。


Pessimists now fret that Asia is not big enough for both China and Japan: you “can’t have two tigers in one forest.”	悲观的中国分析家现在担忧，亚洲还不大到足以容纳中国和身为世界第二经济大国的日本，正所谓：一山不容二虎。


Optimists counter that China and Japan can cooperate, acting as the “dual engines” of Asian development.	相反地，持乐观看法者却认为中国和日本能够相互合作，担当亚洲发展的双引擎。


Japan expert Feng Zhaokui takes the middle ground, arguing that Sino-Japanese relations will be marked by the coexistence of both cooperation and conflict.	日本问题专家冯昭奎则取中立之道，认为中日关系将带上合作与冲突共存兼备的特��。


Recent developments suggest that a purely cooperative bilateral relationship is unlikely, to say the least.	如果我们幸运的话，冯昭奎也许说对了。


If we are lucky, Feng may be right. But if we are not, we could witness the emergence of a new and dangerous political fault line in East Asia.	如若不幸，再遇上一件激发中国民族主义的大事件，那么当大多数人希望这些旧仇恨可以被搁置一旁的时候，一个错误危险的新政治路线将在东亚产生。


One Number Says it All	一个数字说明一切


NEW HAVEN – The number is 0.2%.	纽黑文——0. 2%。


It is the average annualized growth of US consumer spending over the past 14 quarters – calculated in inflation-adjusted terms from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2011.	这就是过去14个季度（2008年第1季度到2011年第2季度）以来美国消费支出经通货膨胀调整的平均年化增长率。


Never before in the post-World War II era have American consumers been so weak for so long.	自二战结束以来，美国消费者还从未在如此长的时间里如此不给力。


This one number encapsulates much of what is wrong today in the US – and in the global economy.	这个数字浓缩地表明了美国——以及全球经济——如今的问题所在。


There are two distinct phases to this period of unprecedented US consumer weakness.	这段前所未有的美国消费疲软期可以分为两个阶段。


From the first quarter of 2008 through the second period of 2009, consumer demand fell for six consecutive quarters at a 2.2% annual rate.	从2008年第1季度到2009年第2季度，消费者需求连续6个季度下降，年降幅为2. 2%。


Not surprisingly, the contraction was most acute during the depths of the Great Crisis, when consumption plunged at a 4.5% rate in the third and fourth quarters of 2008.	毫不奇怪，这波下降在大危机顶峰时最为惨烈，2008年第3和第4季度，消费支出下降了4. 5%。


As the US economy bottomed out in mid-2009, consumers entered a second phase – a very subdued recovery.	2009年年中，美国经济触底，消费支出变化也进入了第二阶段——十分萎靡的复苏。


Annualized real consumption growth over the subsequent eight-quarter period from the third quarter of 2009 through the second quarter of 2011 averaged 2.1%.	此后8个季度（2009年第3季度到2011年第2季度），年化消费支出增长率平均为2. 1%。


That is the most anemic consumer recovery on record – fully 1.5 percentage points slower than the 12-year pre-crisis trend of 3.6% that prevailed between 1996 and 2007.	这是有记录以来最疲软的消费复苏——比危机之前12年（1996—2007年）的趋势增长率（3. 6%）低整整1.


These figures are a good deal weaker than originally stated.	这些数字要比初报数字低很多。


As part of the annual reworking of the US National Income and Product Accounts that was released in July 2011, Commerce Department statisticians slashed their earlier estimates of consumer spending.	作为7月发布的美国国民收入和产出账户年度修订工作的一部分，美国商务部统计学家将调低了他们此前对消费支出的估计。 从2008年初到2011年中这14个季度的增长趋势从0.


The 14-quarter growth trend from early 2008 to mid-2011 was cut from 0.5% to 0.2%; the bulk of the downward revision was concentrated in the first six quarters of this period – for which the estimate of the annualized consumption decline was doubled, from 1.1% to 2.2%.	2%，向下修订部分主要来自一开始的6个季度——年化消费支出降幅被提高了一倍，从1. 1%修正为2.


I have been tracking these so-called benchmark revisions for about 40 years.	我追踪这些所谓的基准修订已经40年了。


This is, by far, one of the most significant I have ever seen.	到目前为止，这是我所见过的最大幅度的调整之一。


We all knew it was tough for the American consumer – but this revision portrays the crisis-induced cutbacks and subsequent anemic recovery in a much dimmer light.	我们都知道，美国消费者的日子不好过，但如此规模的修正表明，危机带来的支出削减和随后复苏的疲软程度要远低于人们此前的想象。


The reasons behind this are not hard to fathom.	背后的原因并不难看出。


By exploiting a record credit bubble to borrow against an unprecedented property bubble, American consumers spent well beyond their means for many years.	前所未有的地产泡沫造成了创纪录的信贷泡沫，借此东风，多年来美国消费者的支出均远高于其支付能力。


When both bubbles burst, over-extended US households had no choice but to cut back and rebuild their damaged balance sheets by paying down outsize debt burdens and rebuilding depleted savings.	当两个泡沫均以破灭收场时，过度消费的美国家庭别无选择，只能削减开支，通过偿还巨额债务和补充耗竭的储蓄来重建其受损的资产负债表。


Yet, on both counts, balance-sheet repair has only just begun.	然而，从这两个账户看，资产负债表的修复过程才开了个头。


While household-sector debt was pruned to 115% of disposable personal income in early 2011 from the peak of 130% hit in 2007, it remains well in excess of the 75% average of the 1970-2000 period.	家庭部门债务占可支配个人收入的比重已从2007年高峰时的130%下降为2001年初的115%，但仍大大超过了1970—2000年间的平均水平75%。


And, while the personal saving rate rose to 5% of disposable income in the first half of 2011 from the rock-bottom 1.2% low hit in mid-2005, this is far short of the nearly 8% norm that prevailed during the last 30 years of the twentieth century.	与此同时，个人储蓄率从2005年年中的最低值——相当于可支配收入的1. 5%上升为2001年上半年的5%，但仍大大低于20世纪最后30年的平均水平8%。


With retrenchment and balance-sheet repair only in its early stages, the zombie-like behavior of American consumers should persist.	开支削减和资产负债表修复还处在早期阶段，因此美国消费支出半死不活的状态还将持续。


The 2.1% consumption growth trend realized during the anemic recovery of the past two years could well be indicative of what lies ahead for years to come.	在过去两年的疲软复苏中，消费支出增长趋势为2. 1%，这可能时未来多年内的普遍情况。


Such an outcome would have three profound implications for the economic outlook: First, since consumer demand still accounts for 71% of real GDP, a protracted shortfall in trend consumption represents a major headwind for overall US economic growth.	这样的结果对经济前景还将造成三点深远影响：首先，由于消费需求占真实GDP的比重仍高达71%，消费趋势的持续不振将对美国经济增长蒙上一层阴影。


While misguided Washington policymakers would like nothing better than for consumers to return to their old risky ways and start spending again, over-extended American households now know better.	已入歧途的华盛顿政客最喜欢的事情莫过于消费者回到危险的消费老路上去，重新开始花钱消费，但过度消费的美国家庭比他们清醒多了。


The heavy artillery of monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wasted on attempts to short-circuit balance-sheet repair.	货币和财政刺激的弹药都被浪费在缩短资产负债表修复时间上了。


Second, persistent weakness in consumption and GDP growth puts the US economy on a much weaker growth trajectory than that which is built into the government’s long-term budget estimates.	其次，消费和GDP增长的持续疲软将严重影响美国经济增长路径，远远达不到政府长期预算估计时所依据的假设。


The Congressional Budget Office is assuming 3.4% average growth in real GDP over the 2013 to 2016 period.	国会预算办公室假设2013—2016年间真实GDP平均年增长率为3. 4%。


If the growth trend is one percentage point lower – a distinct possibility in an era of protracted consumption weakness – budget deficits would be a significantly higher.	如果增长趋势比这个数字低1个百分点——在消费持续不振的情况下，这具有很大的可能性——预算赤字将出现显著增长。


Indeed, a CBO rule of thumb equates a sustained one-percentage-point shortfall in real GDP growth with budget deficits that are roughly $3 trillion larger over a ten-year period.	事实上，联邦预算委员会的经验规则表明，真实GDP增长率持续短缺1个百分点相当于在10年的时间里增加大约3万亿美元的预算赤字。


Needless to say, such an outcome would spell serious trouble for America’s already-contentious deficit-and-debt debate.	不消说，这样一个结果将大大激化已然莫衷一是的预算-债务争论。


Finally, no other economy is capable of filling the void left by a protracted shortfall of US consumption.	最后，其他经济体无力填补美国消费持续不振所造成的空缺。


Europe and Japan are in no position to take up the slack, and consumer sectors in the world’s major developing economies – especially China – lack the scale and dynamism to take over.	欧洲和日本自不待言，而世界主要发展中经济体（特别是中国）的消费部门的规模和活力也无法胜任。


So enduring weakness in US consumption implies pressure on the growth of export-led developing economies.  The good news is that will force them to embrace long-overdue rebalancing strategies aimed at stimulating domestic consumer demand.	因此，美国消费的持续疲软意味着出口导向发展中经济体将承受压力。 好消息是这将迫使它们实施早就应该实施的以刺激国内消费需求为目标的再平衡战略。


What can be done?	怎么办？


While measures adapted in the depths of the crisis – massive fiscal and monetary stimuli – were effective in placing a bottom under the free-fall, they have been ineffective in sparking meaningful recovery.	危机高峰时所采取的措施——大规模财政和货币刺激——有助于让自由落体平稳着陆，但对于刺激有意义的复苏就不太灵光了。


That should hardly be surprising in an era of balance-sheet repair.	在修复资产负债表的时代，这一点都不令人奇怪。


Instead, the US needs a menu of policies tailored to the needs and pressures bearing down on American consumers.	相反，美国需要一系列政策满足消费者的需求和压力。 可行方案包括免除债务以加速去杠杆化过程；


Some possibilities: debt forgiveness to speed up the deleveraging process; creative saving policies that restore financial security to crisis-battered Americans; and, of course, jobs and the income they generate.	创造性储蓄策略从而为受危机重创的美国人重建财物安全； 当然还有由此带来的收入和就业增长。


The US economy – as well as the global economy – cannot get back on its feet without the American consumer.	美国经济——以及全球经济——的复苏离不开美国消费者。


It is time to look beyond ideology – on the left as well as on the right – and frame the policy debate with that key consideration in mind.	现在，我们必须抛弃意识形态藩篱——不管是左派还是右派——在政策争论中弄清什么才是当务之急。


One World, One Europe	同一个世界，同一个欧洲


PARIS – G-8, G-5, G-20, G-2, G-3, and now the G-14 (the G-8 plus the G-5 plus Egypt): never have the “mathematics” of world order seemed more complex and confusing.	巴黎——八国集团、五国集团、二十国集团、两国集团、三国集团，现在又是十四国集团（八国集团加五国集团再加埃及）：世界秩序的“数学题”从来没有比今天更混乱、更复杂。


Kofi Annan, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations in 2005, attempted to adjust the multilateral institutions of our world to fit its new realities.	2005年联合国五十周年纪念日的时候，科菲·安南曾试图调整我们这个世界的多边体制，以使其适应新的现实。


It was a brave effort that came too soon.	这是个勇敢的举动，只可惜生不逢时。


The Northern industrial world was not yet ready to recognize the new weight of the emerging powers and the need to strike a new balance between North and South, East and West.	北方工业国还没有认识到新兴国家的力量，也没有意识到在南北、东西间达成新平衡格局的重要性。


Has the current financial and economic crisis, given its traumatic depth and the obvious responsibility of the United States as its source, created the necessary conditions and a more favourable climate for a major re-foundation of the multilateral institutions?	目前这次金融经济危机所造成的深刻伤害，以及美国作为起源国显而易见的责任，是否为彻底重塑多边体制创造了必要条件和有利环境？


It is too early to be confident that true change will come.	现在肯定变革将会来临恐怕为时尚早。


What is certain is that a rebalancing between North and South must start with an honest and hard-headed look at Europe’s current status in our multilateral system.	可以肯定的是，必须重新协调北南关系，实事求是地看待欧洲在目前多边体系中的作用。


Nowadays, there is both too much and too little Europe, or, to put it differently, too many European countries are represented in the world’s premier forums, with too many voices.	今天，问题的关键在于欧洲太多和太少现象同时存在，或者换句话讲，世界高级论坛中有太多欧洲国家代表，发出太多不同的声音。


But, in terms of weight and influence, there is not enough united Europe.	但是在权重和影响力方面， 统一 欧洲的力度显然远远不够。


In the early 1980’s, a former French foreign minister, Jean François-Poncet suggested that France and the United Kingdom give up their seats on the UN Security Council in favour of a single European Union seat.	20世纪80年代初，前法国外长让·弗朗索瓦-蓬塞提议英法两国放弃在联合国安理会的席位，代之以单一的欧盟席位。


Germany would no longer seek a seat, Italy would not feel left out, and Europe’s international identity would be strengthened in a spectacular way.	这样，德国不会再寻求加入安理会，意大利也不会感到被排挤，欧洲的国际地位将得到显著增强。


Of course, this was not to be.	当然，这个目标没有实现。


France and the UK were not willing to give up the symbol of their nuclear and international status.	英法两国不愿放弃核国家和国际地位的象征。


They are probably are even less willing to do so today in the name of a Union that is less popular than ever, at least in the British Isles.	在欧盟受欢迎度跌入谷底的今天，它们也许更不愿这样做，至少英国是这样。


But let’s be reasonable: the absurdity of Italy’s presence in the G-8, together with the lack of official membership for countries such as China, India, and Brazil, is no longer acceptable or tenable.	但我们必须正视现实：意大利在八国集团中存在近乎荒谬，再加上中国、印度、巴西等国没有正式的代表席位，这种情况再也无法被人们所接受。


Yet, because of that anomaly, Europe suffers from a grave deficit of legitimacy and presence internationally.	由于这种反常情况的存在，严重威胁到了欧洲在国际事务中的代表权和合法性。


Of course, the US cannot be compared with a Union that is nowhere near becoming a United States of Europe.	当然，美国与不可能成为欧洲合众国的欧盟不可同日而语。


But if the contrast between the two sides of the Atlantic, between the continent of “Yes, we can” and the continent of “Yes, we should,” is so immense, it is for reasons that Europeans are refusing to face or even to discuss.	但如果大西洋两岸信奉“我们可以”和“我们应该”的两块大陆间对比如此强烈，个中的原因却正是欧洲不愿面对甚至讨论的。


The first one is the EU’s lack of anything that incarnates it.	首先是欧盟缺乏真正的化身。


It would be absurd to set US President Barack Obama and EU Commission President José Manuel Barroso against each other as equals.	将美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马和欧盟委员会主席若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐进行对等的比较甚至近乎于荒谬。


Whereas Obama owes his election in large part to his charisma, Barroso is likely to succeed himself precisely because of his lack of charisma, because he says very little in so many languages.	如果说奥巴马当选总统靠的是他的个人魅力，巴罗佐胜过奥巴马的却恰恰是用众多语言说毫无意义的话，因此毫无魅力可言。


But, for national leaders in the EU whose last ambition is to have to deal with a new Jacques Delors, i.e., a man with ideas of his own, a cipher like Barroso is just the man for the job.	但在最不愿意面对新雅克·德洛尔那样有主见的主席的欧盟国家领导人看来，一个像巴罗佐这样的傀儡恰恰是欧盟委员会主席的最佳人选。


On the other hand, the EU is paying a steep price for the bureaucratic anonymity of its leaders.	而另一方面，领导人被官僚体制所淹没让欧盟付出了沉重的代价。


A process of escalating alienation and indifference between the Union and its citizens is at work, illustrated by low turnout in the last European Parliament elections.	欧盟及其民众的关系日渐冷漠和疏远，最近一次欧洲议会选举投票者寥寥即是证明。


As a result, there is less Union in Europe and less Europe in the world.	结果是欧盟在欧洲的力量和欧洲在世界的力量都遭到了削弱。


A strong European voice, such as Nicolas Sarkozy’s during the French presidency of the EU, may make a difference, but only for six months, and at the cost of reinforcing other European countries’ nationalist feelings in reaction to the expression of “Gallic pride.”	法国担任轮值主席国期间尼古拉·萨科奇统一的欧洲声音可能让人耳目一新，但这种声音却只持续了短短六个月，而且付出了让其他欧洲国家在面对“高卢人的骄傲”时民族主义情感进一步被激发的代价。


If Europeans want to regain self-confidence, pride and, collective hope, they must seize the opportunity that the necessary and inevitable adjustment of the multilateral system represents for them.	如果欧洲人想要重塑自信、骄傲和集体的希望，就必须抓住这次多边体系不可避免的调整赋予他们的机会。


They should make of necessity an opportunity.	他们理应把此次势在必行的改革当作一次难得的机遇。


Of course, a single European voice in the major multilateral institutions appears more unrealistic than ever: who wants it, except maybe the EU’s smaller members?	当然，重要多边体制中统一欧洲声音的可能性似乎越来越小：毕竟除欧盟那些小国外，还有谁真心希望这样？


But Europe’s last chance to be a credible actor in a multi-polar world rests precisely on its ability to present a single, united, responsible voice.	但欧洲成为多极世界负责任力量的最后机��恰恰取决于它能否发出统一、团结、负责任的声音。


Europe currently exists as an economic actor, not as an international political actor.	欧洲目前还只是一股经济力量，而没有成为国际政治力量。


If Europeans were to set for themselves the goal of speaking with one voice, of having one representative in the spectrum of multilateral institutions – starting with the UN Security Council – they would be taken more seriously.	如果欧洲人决心要以统一的声音讲话，要在多边体制中从联合国安理会开始推举出统一的代表，那么他们的意见将会得到更多的关注。


In this case, one can really say that “less is more.”	在这种背景下，确实应了那句“少即是多”的老话。


Such a move would be deemed premature by numerous critics.	不少批评家会认为行动的时机尚不成熟。


Twenty years ago, right after the fall of the Berlin Wall, one could say “I want Europe so much that I am willing to accept one Germany” – a revolutionary move if one had in mind the French writer François Mauriac’s famous joke, “I like Germany so much, I want two of them.”	二十年前，柏林墙刚倒塌时，可以说“我如此热爱欧洲，甚至可以接受一个德国”的提法是一次革命性的进步——如果你还记得法国作家弗朗索瓦·莫里亚克的那个著名的笑话，“我如此热爱德国，甚至想把它分成两个。 ”


In today’s global age, with the rise of emerging powers and the relative decline of the West, the only Europe that will be taken seriously is a Europe that can speak and be seen as one.	在今天的全球化时代，随着新兴力量的崛起和西方的相对衰落，唯一能够受到重视的欧洲是一个能以统一的面貌讲话的欧洲。


Job-Saving Technologies	不会让人下岗的科技


SAN FRANCISCO – This is an age of anxiety about the job-killing effects of automation, with dire headlines warning that the rise of robots will render entire occupational categories obsolete.	发自旧金山——这是一个大众恐慌自动化工业会让人类工作岗位消失的时代，媒体上充斥着悲观的标题，警告机器人的大规模应用会让某些职业门类彻底不复存在。


But this fatalism assumes that we are powerless to harness what we create to improve our lives – and, indeed, our jobs.	但这种宿命论似乎在假设我们根本无力驾驭那些被创造来改善我们生活——事实上，是我们的工作——的东西。


Evidence of technology’s potential to help resolve our job concerns can be found in online talent platforms.	其实我们已经可以在某些在线人才平台上发现一些科技有潜力帮助解决工作问题的证据。


Digital platforms already have transformed many parts of the economy.	数码平台已经令经济中的许多部门发生了转型。


The online marketplaces built by Amazon and Alibaba, for example, have reshaped the retail landscape, partly by changing the local nature of retail markets.	比如零售业原本只服务于一城一地，如今却被亚马逊和阿里巴巴构建的在线市场平台就在某种程度上重塑了。


Online talent platforms apply a similar approach to the world of work – with a similar impact.	在线人才平台也通过类似的手法作用于人们的工作——同时也产生了类似的影响。


By creating regional, national, and even global job markets, they allow employers to tap into broader talent pools and connect job seekers with a wider universe of opportunities.	通过建立地区性，全国性甚至全球性的就业市场，平台令雇主可以在更大型的人才库中甄选英才，也让求职者能去检索数量更加庞大的就业机会。


In this way, they have transformed the typical job search, and are now approaching the critical mass needed to move employment numbers.	平台用这一手段革新了传统的找工方式，而且惠及越来越多的雇主和劳动者，以至于可以左右就业数据了。


Such platforms take various forms.	这些平台有多种形式。 像领英(LinkedIn)，Monster.


Websites like LinkedIn, Monster.com, and Indeed.com – which match individuals with employers seeking to fill traditional jobs – have already engaged hundreds of millions of individual users and many of the world’s leading companies, and are generating the bulk of the economic impact.	com和Indeed. com这样的网站会把劳动者和那些出现传统职位空缺的雇主相配对，而且已经积累了数亿个人用户和众多全球知名企业，对经济形成了极大影响力。


But there are also the digital marketplaces of the “gig economy,” which connect freelancers with work assignments, from web development to chauffeuring passengers, thereby reducing underused labor and capital.	但同时还存在着一些针对“特约经济（gig economy）”的市场平台，把自由职业者和任务相配对起来承接从网站开发到乘客接送等各类业务，并因此降低劳动力和资本的空置率。


Digital platforms make markets more transparent and efficient, which is exactly the kind of disruption that today’s labor markets need.	数码平台令市场变得更透明高效，而这正是当前劳动力市场急需的冲击性创新。


In many countries, 30-45% of the working-age population is unemployed, inactive, or working only part-time. Meanwhile, companies are complaining that they cannot fill open positions in sectors ranging from technology to health care.	在许多国家，一方面是30~45%的适龄劳动人口失业，闲赋在家，或只能找到兼职工作，另一方面却是企业抱怨在技术到卫生医疗等各个岗位招不到人。


And those who are employed are often stuck in roles that do not take full advantage of their skills.	而那些在职的人却无法完全施展自己的才能。


These issues represent a staggering waste of human and economic potential.	所有这些状况都意味着海量的人力和经济潜力白白流失掉了。


The problems stem from the fact that today’s labor markets provide crude, incomplete, and geographically restricted signals about the skills that actually are in demand.	而问题的根源则在于当今的劳动力市场较为粗放，提供的服务不完备且存在地域性，遏制了人们去提供企业急需的劳动技能。


As a result, mapping out an education, training, and career path entails quite a lot of guesswork.	结果当人们只能更多地依靠猜想来筹划自身的教育，培训和职业路径。


That does not only hurt workers; it also means that companies’ needs can be left unmet.	这不仅仅损害了劳动者的利益，也意味着许多企业的需求被晾在了一边。


Online talent platforms can boost labor-market efficiency by aggregating data on candidates and job openings in a broader geographic area, thereby illuminating for workers which positions are open today, as well as the actions they can take to gain more fulfilling work.	在线人才平台则不一样，通过在一个更广大的地理范围内比对劳动者和职位需求，通知劳动者当日有哪些职位空缺，以及指导如何去申请更能发挥个人所长的工作，它们进一步提升了劳动力市场的效率。


This dynamic could be especially important in Europe, where employment prospects differ radically across countries (and across regions within countries), and many feel trapped in stagnant local economies.	这一动力对欧洲来说尤其重要，因为洲内各国（以及国内各地）的就业前景差距极大，而且许多人感觉都被本地的疲软经济所拖累而不发一展所长。


It is not likely that someone will move from Spain to Swaziland, even for a dream job; but that person might accept a better position a few hundred miles away.	虽然人们不太可能因为一份很好的职位而从西班牙移居斯威士兰，但或许几百英里之外的地方就可以接受了。


Moreover, by facilitating faster matches, online talent platforms shorten the duration of unemployment, while the creation of flexible part-time opportunities can draw more inactive workers into the labor force and help part-time workers add hours.	此外，通过进一步加速配对，在线人才平台缩短了人们的失业期，同时创造更为灵活的兼职机会让更多闲赋者重归劳动力队伍同时让兼职劳动者可以增加工作时间。


At the same time, by connecting the right person with the right role, such platforms can boost productivity.	与此同时，通过把合适的人和合适的职位连接起来，这些平台还能提升生产力。


In short, while online talent platforms cannot boost weak demand in advanced economies, solve complex development issues in the emerging world, or create better jobs across the board, they can have a major impact on seemingly intractable issues like unemployment, underemployment, and low job satisfaction.	简而言之，虽然在线人才平台无法提振发达国家的需求疲软状况，无法解决新兴国家的复杂发展问题，也不能在整体范围内创造更好的职位，但却能对失业，不充分就业和就业满意度低这类看似无法处理的难题产生重大影响。 麦肯锡全球研究所最近发布的一项研究成果显示，到2025年这些平台每年可以增加2.


According to a recent McKinsey Global Institute research study, they could increase global GDP by $2.7 trillion annually by 2025; that is equivalent to adding another United Kingdom to the world economy.	7万亿美元的全球GDP； 这相当于为全球经济再添一个英国的体量。


Much of the impact of online talent platforms stems from the use of technology to bridge information asymmetries that impair labor-market performance.	在线人才平台的大部分影响都来自于利用科技来消除那些削弱劳动市场表现的信息不对称现象。


In the past, these gaps were only partly bridged by signals carrying useful information. But online talent platforms aggregate much larger amounts of information efficiently, increasing the “signal density.”	过去这些鸿沟只能靠一些携带有用信息的信号发布来弥合，但在线人才平台则有效集合了更大量的信息，让“信号密度”进一步提升。


With expanded data, companies can use predictive analytics to identify the best candidate for a given role.	随着数据量的扩大，企业可以利用预测性分析来锁定某个特定职位的最佳候选者。


Job seekers can augment their educational credentials and employment histories with samples of their work and endorsements from co-workers and customers, thereby conveying their potential value to employers more effectively.	求职者可以用自身的工作实例和同僚/顾客的认可来扩展说明自己的教育资质和就业经历，并以此更加有效地让雇主认识到自身的潜在价值。 。


Furthermore, platforms that aggregate anonymous reviews from current and former employees give individuals a better idea of what it is like to work for a given company, as well as the salary they can and should expect. As employee satisfaction becomes more widely reported, companies are facing pressure to ensure good working conditions in order to recruit the talent they need.	此外平台还会收集现任和前雇员对一家企业的匿名评论，让求职者可以知道在这家企业的工作氛围和薪酬状况，随着关于雇员满意度的信息不断扩散，企业也会感受到压力，确保能用优质的工作环境来招徕人才。


So far, the biggest winners from this shift have been educated and skilled professionals in the advanced economies.	目前来说这转型的最大受益者就是那些发达国家的专业人才。


In fact, the most sought-after engineers and software developers may not need to apply for jobs at all; companies are now increasingly recruiting “passive” candidates, sometimes forcing employers to increase the salaries of workers they want to retain.	事实上那些极为抢手的工程师和软件开发者甚至不需要去找工作； 企业越来越多地聘用这些“被动”候选者，有时如果想继续留用劳动者的话，雇主就不得不提升工资。


But it is not all good news.	然而凡事必有利弊。


Now that employers have new tools for recruitment and assessment, they may find low-skilled workers easier to replace, potentially worsening income inequality in the short run.	雇主们也有了招工和评估劳动者的新工具，让他们可以轻易替换那些低技能劳动者，因此可能在短期内让收入不均状况进一步恶化。


In the longer term, however, a better overall system for skills upgrading could be designed – one that could be integral to facilitating upward mobility.	但在长期来说应该会创设一个更完善的技能提升体系——更有利于劳动者的向上提拔。


And there is another benefit in this regard. As the career outcomes associated with specific institutions and degree programs become more transparent, education and training providers will become more accountable for preparing their students for prosperous and productive lives.	在这方面还有另一个好处：随着与特定机构和学位项目相联系的职业成果变得更加透明可见，教育和培训机构就可以在为学员筹划一个更美好更高入生活方面作出更切实的贡献。


With global smartphone subscriptions set to reach eight billion by 2025, online talent platforms have enormous room to expand into new regions and sectors.	全球智能手机保有量将在2025年达到80亿，在线人才市场也因此拥有向新区域和新经济部门拓展的巨大空间。


As these technologies continue to evolve, they may change the world of work in ways we cannot even imagine today.	随着这些科技不断进化，它们将以当今我们无法想象的方式改变整个劳动力市场。


It seems that there is room in the labor market for a little optimism, after all.	归根结底，对劳动力市场的拓展性还是应该保持一定乐观的。


Ending the Syrian Horror	结束叙利亚恐怖


RIYADH – No issue in the world today is of greater immediate importance than the need to end the civil war in Syria.	利雅得—放眼当今世界，没有哪个问题比结束叙利亚内战具有更紧迫的重要性。


The past two and a half years have been a disaster for peace, stability, and our sense of common humanity.	过去两年半堪称和平、稳定和人道主义的灾难。


Gut-wrenching images of unspeakable, indiscriminate violence against civilians have shocked the world.	针对平民的无差别暴力惨状难以用语言形容，也震惊了全世界。


According to the latest United Nations estimates, more than 100,000 Syrians, including many children, have lost their lives as a result of the criminal behavior of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.	根据联合国的最新估计，超过10万叙利亚人（包括大量儿童）因为巴沙尔·阿萨德政权的罪行而丧生。


There are now more than two million Syrian refugees in bordering countries and more than four million displaced persons inside Syria.	如今，两百多万叙利亚难民前往邻国，更有400万国内难民流离失所。


With the murder of peaceful protesters, the shelling of residential quarters, the execution of soldiers who refuse to fire on their countrymen, and the use of chemical weapons, a picture has emerged of a regime that is systematically defying the most basic international moral and legal standards.	在杀戮和平示威者、扫射居民区、处决向父老开枪的士兵以及使用化学武器的行径下，我们看到了一幅完全无视最基本国际道德和法律准则的图景。


Unless the world is content to watch the carnage continue, the Syrian regime and its instruments of oppression must be removed.	除非世界看着屠杀继续而心安理得，叙利亚政权及其镇压工具必须清除。


The international community’s shameful acceptance of impunity for Assad and his henchmen is a blot on the conscience of the world.	国际社会令人羞耻地接受了不惩罚巴沙尔及其党羽，这是世界良心的污点。


Western leaders’ dithering, and the callous, cynical, and cavalier support of Russia and China for Assad, is a stigma that they will bear forever.	西方领导人的踌躇以及中国和俄罗斯冷漠、自私而满不在乎的支持巴沙尔是他们永远无法洗脱的耻辱。


Iran’s support for the regime is nothing less than a war crime.	伊朗对巴沙尔政权的支持不啻战争罪行。


The current charade of international control over Assad’s chemical arsenal would be amusing if it were not so blatantly perfidious.	目前，国际社会装模作样控制了巴沙尔的化学武库，看起来就像是个笑话，根本不可信。


While it has allowed US President Barack Obama to back down from his threat of military intervention in response to the regime’s use of chemical weapons, it has also allowed Assad to continue to butcher his people.	这让美国总统奥巴马得以收回承诺——他曾威胁说，如果巴沙尔政权使用化学武器，美国将进行军事干预； 也让巴沙尔得以继续屠杀人民。


It is ludicrous to believe that US Secretary of State John Kerry’s “offhand” comment about destroying Syria’s chemical-weapons stockpile was anything but a well-choreographed opening for Russia to make its diplomatic play, thereby letting the US off the hook.	美国国务卿克里“漫不经心”地评论说，摧毁叙利亚化学武器储备绝不是俄罗斯精心策划的、让美国咬钩的外交计谋，相信他的说辞简直荒谬可笑。


If the world, and especially the American people, believe that removing Assad’s chemical weapons will end his government’s slaughter of innocent men, women, and children, then all semblance of rational thought, humanitarian care, and regard for national interest has been thrown to the wind.	如果世界——特别是美国人民——认为毁掉巴沙尔的化学武器就能结束其政府对无辜男女和儿童的杀戮，那么所有装模作样的理性思考、人道关注和国家利益考量都可以让它们随风而逝了。


Preventing Assad from using his killing machine by any means, including targeted strikes on his air force and command-and-control centers, is the only way to end the bloodshed in Syria.	不惜任何手段阻止巴沙尔使用其杀人机器——包括定点袭击其空军和指挥中心——是唯一能够阻止叙利亚流血的方法。


Yet, despite public promises by Kerry to supply the Syrian opposition with weapons – and even after Obama declared that Assad must go – Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced that the Pentagon had no such plans.	但是，尽管克里公开承诺向叙利亚反对派提供武器——奥巴马甚至宣布巴沙尔必须下台——但美国参谋长联席会议主席邓普希（Martin Dempsey）却说五角大楼没有这样的计划。


Why make such a statement, when it can bring only chagrin and despair to the victims, and comfort and solace to a criminal regime?	为什么要放出这样的口风，安抚犯下罪行的政权？ 这样只能让受害者感到气馁和绝望。


How one can reconcile such contradictions is beyond me.	我无论如何无法接受如此矛盾。


If we continue to delay military action, we will have to intervene with greater force when the carnage spreads to Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq.	如果我们继续拖延不采取军事行动，到大屠杀蔓延到黎巴嫩、以色列、约旦、土耳其和伊拉克时，就得派更多的兵力干预。


Indeed, Lebanon, following the collapse of Najib Mikati’s government, is already on the brink of civil war, as direct intervention in Syria by Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, to prevent Assad’s overthrow has exacerbated the country’s own longstanding sectarian tensions.	事实上，在米卡提（Najib Mikati）政府倒台后，黎巴嫩已经处于内战边缘，伊朗的黎巴嫩代理人真主党直接干预叙利亚以防止巴沙尔倒台，这让黎巴嫩自身由来已久的宗派紧张局势进一步恶化了。


Witness the recent car-bomb attacks in a Hezbollah-controlled neighborhood of Beirut and in the northern city of Tripoli.	最近在真主党控制的贝鲁特周边和北部城市的黎波里（Tripoli）发生的汽车炸弹袭击事件就是明证。


If law and order are to prevail, Hezbollah must be neutralized, and the Syrian-dispatched assassins of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri must be brought to justice.	如果想要法律和秩序胜出，真主党就必须中立化，叙利亚指使的暗杀前黎巴嫩总理哈里里（Rafik Hariri）事件必须诉诸公堂。


Saudi Arabia is doing what it can to help.	沙特阿拉伯已竭尽全力提供帮助。


The Kingdom is providing financial aid to Lebanon in an effort to rebuild a stronger, more stable country, and to roll back the influence of Iran.	沙特王国正在向黎巴嫩提供金融援助以重建一个更强大、更稳定的国家并抵挡伊朗的影响力。


We have long pushed for the disarming of Hezbollah, and we have assisted the government with nearly $1 billion in financial support and credit to purchase weapons for the Lebanese Army, and we will continue to do so in the coming decade.	长期以来，我们一直致力于解除真主党武装，我们自助了黎巴嫩政府近10亿美元金融支持和信用用于为黎巴嫩军队购买武器，并将在未来十年中继续支持。


But, unless the international community –particularly the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – begins to fulfill its obligations in Syria, money will not be enough to prevent further chaos and destruction.	但是，除非国际社会——特别是联合国安理会常任理事国——开始履行其对叙利亚的义务，否则光靠金钱无法阻止进一步混乱和破坏。


The Business of Business is More Than Business	企业功夫在企业外


BERKELEY – Earlier this year, Robert Simons of Harvard Business School fired off a blistering indictment of American businesses and business schools.	伯克利—今年早些时候，哈佛商学院的西蒙斯（Robert Simons）发表了一篇攻讦美国企业和商学院的战斗檄文。


American companies, he charged, have become softheaded, unfocused, and uncompetitive, in part because business schools are persuading them to embrace a long list of gauzy, feel-good values, such as social responsibility, environmental sustainability, and inclusiveness.	他说，美国公司变得愚蠢、注意力分散、竞争力低下，之所以如此，部分原因是商学院说服他们认同许许多多浮华的、看起来很美的价值观，比如社会责任、环境可持续性和包容性等。


Reviving a famous broadside by Milton Friedman back in 1970, Simons argued that a company’s only mission is to “compete and win.”	西蒙斯让人们想起了1970年弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）的尖锐批评。 他指出，一个公司的唯一任务是“竞争并胜出”。


Friedman, too, maintained that anything except making money is a distraction.	弗里德曼也说，除了赚钱之外，其他的一切都是不务正业。


It is difficult to deny the appealing simplicity of this argument.	很难否认，这一观点有难以克服的简洁性。


Who would deny that companies have a clear responsibility to earn profits for their shareholders, or that most shareholders invest primarily to make money, not to make the world a better place?	谁能否认，公司有明确的责任应该为股东赚取利润、大部分股东投资的主要目的是赚钱而不是让世界变得更好？


Why make things more complicated?	为什么要把事情搞得这么复杂？


Because they are.	因为就是这么复杂。


First, most references to Friedman’s argument overlook his recognition of constraints on business behavior.	首先，引用弗里德曼论点者大多忽略了他对商业行为约束的认识。


In his words, companies should “make as much money as possible while conforming to the basic rules of the society, both those embodied in law and those embodied in ethical custom.”	弗里德曼说，公司应该“赚尽可能多的钱，与此同时要遵守社会的基本规则，既包括法律中写的规则，也包括世俗伦理规则。


In other words, compliance with the law is not enough.	”换句话说，光遵守法律是不够的。


Some ethical constraints, such as basic human rights, reflect universal values; others vary across time, location, and situations.	有的道德约束，如基本人权，反映了普世价值； 有的则随着时间、地点和条件的改变而改变。


Second, not all shareholders are alike.	其次，并非所有的股东都是一样的。


As Lynn Stout of Cornell Law School has put it, they are “human beings with differing investment time frames, different interests ex ante and ex post, different degrees of diversification, and different attitudes toward sacrificing personal wealth to follow ethical rules and avoid harming others.”	正如康奈尔商学院的史陶特（Lynn Stout）所指出的，他们是“时间框架不同、先验和后验利益不同、多样化程度不同、对为了追随伦理规则和避免伤害他人牺牲个人财富的态度也不同的人类”。


They also differ in their attitudes toward risk.	他们对待风险的态度也不一样。


Maximizing shareholder value over a particular time period may satisfy the interests of some shareholders but violate the interests of others.	在特定时段实现股东价值最大化，这可能满足了一些股东的利益而破坏了另一些股东的利益。


The simple theory of profit maximization assumes away the conflicting interests of diverse shareholders.	简单的利润最大化论假设多样化的股东之间不存在利益冲突。


In reality, when businesses make decisions, they have to balance these interests.	在现实中，企业在做决策时必须平衡这些利益。


Third, businesses can also affect shareholders’ interests over time.	第三，假以时日，企业也可以影响股东利益。


Individuals gravitate to organizations that are compatible with their personal preferences.	个人被与个体偏好相容的组织吸引。


So companies can attract like-minded shareholders by espousing distinctive values, missions, and cultures.	因此公司可以通过支持不同的价值、使命和文化来吸引观念相近的股东。


A recent study found that patient shareholders account for a larger portion of the shares of companies that espouse a long-term sustainability agenda relative to companies committed to share-price maximization.	一份最新研究发现，支持长期可持续性日程的公司与致力于股价最大化的公司相比，耐心股东的比例更大。


A growing number of investors are looking for responsible investment or “impact investment” opportunities that promise a mix of both financial and social returns.	越来越多的投资者正在寻找负责任的投资或“影响力投资”（impact investment，兼顾财务和社会回报）的机会。


Fourth, every company both depends on and affects the societies in which it functions.	第四，所有公司既依赖、也影响它所身处的社会。


The larger and more global the company, the larger and more global are its societal effects.	一家公司规模越大、越全球化，其社会效应就越大、越全球化。


Companies need customers who can afford their products, which means that businesses benefit from social stability and broad prosperity.	公司需要能负担得起它们的产品的顾客，这意味着企业从社会稳定和全面繁荣中获益。


Companies also need educated, hard-working, ethical employees and reliable, efficient suppliers.	公司也需要教育程度高、工作努力、道德端正的员工和可靠、高效的供应商。


And companies need public infrastructure – not only physical infrastructure like highways and airports, but also social infrastructure like good schools, safe neighborhoods, and effective legal systems.	公司还需要公共基础设施——不仅是高速公路和机场等实体设施，也包括好学校、安全社区、有效司法制度等社会基础设施。


Businesses that ignore the broader social and environmental context in which they operate are likely to pay a price: reputational damage and loss of brand value, falling sales, difficulties in recruiting talent, lower worker productivity, corruption, tougher government regulation, or an increase in climate-change-related costs.	忽视经营活动的广义社会和环境约束的企业有可能为此付出代价：名声损坏、品牌价值损失、销量下滑、难以吸引人才、工人生产率低下、腐败、更严格的政府监管、气候变化相关成本升高等。


There are now mobile phone apps that assess and grade large multinational companies’ supply chains for customers, investors, and public officials.	如今，客户、投资者和公共官员可以用手机应用为大型跨国公司供应链打分和评级。


Companies that score poorly risk losing sales and investors and triggering official regulatory or legal action.	得分低的公司有可能会损失销量和投资者，并导致官方监管和法律手段。


For example, Apple’s brand was recently shaken by revelations about brutal workplace conditions at Foxconn factories in China, where most of its iPhones and iPads are assembled.	比如，最近苹果公司的名声就受到了打击，因为据披露，iPhone和iPad的主要生产线——位于中国的富士康工厂工作环境恶劣。


In response to concerns among customers, employees, and shareholders, Apple has improved working conditions and agreed to regular reviews by an independent observer.	为了回应客户、员工和股东的担忧，苹果公司改善了工作条件，并同意接受独立观察者的定期检视。


Similarly, American and European clothing companies have been struggling to contain the reputational damage caused by lethal working conditions in Bangladeshi garment factories.	类似地，在孟加拉国制衣厂致命工作环境被曝光后，美国和欧洲服装公司也因为名声的损坏而焦头烂额。


The Friedman-Simons view that businesses’ sole social responsibility is to increase profits assumes that competent, non-corrupt governments both provide the public goods necessary for a prosperous economy and contain the negative externalities, like pollution and climate change, that result from private economic activities.	弗里德曼-西蒙斯观点——企业的唯一社会责任是增加利润——���设胜任的、没有腐败的政府能够提供繁荣经济所必须的公共品并消除来自私人经济活动的负外部性（如污染和气候变化）。


But, in the actual societies in which businesses function, governments are often unable or unwilling to provide required public goods or curb negative externalities.	但是，在企业经营所处的实际社会环境中，政府往往无法或不愿提供必要的公共品或遏制负外部性。


In response to “government failures,” companies face pressure from a variety of stakeholders – including incompetent and corrupt governments themselves – to address broad social and environmental problems.	为了对付“政府失灵”，公司面临着各种相关利益方的压力——包括来自不胜任和腐败的政府本身的压力——去纠正广泛的社会和环境问题。


But businesses cannot solve such problems by themselves.	但企业无法靠自身克服这些问题。


Solutions depend on innovative collaboration among private companies, non-profit organizations, and governments.	解决办法取决于私人公司、非营利组织和政府之间的创新性合作。


This is already happening.	这种合作已经开始展开。


For example, Walmart has teamed up with the Environmental Defense Fund to devise a strategy to eliminate 20 million tons of embedded carbon in the products on its shelves.	比如，沃尔玛和环境保护基金会（Environmental Defense Fund）合作开发了一套旨在让沃尔玛货架上的产品碳排量减少2000万吨的战略。


Likewise, the European Union, the International Labor Organization, and the government of Bangladesh have cooperated with global companies on a pact to improve conditions for Bangladeshi garment workers.	类似地，欧盟、国际劳工组织和孟加拉国政府与跨国公司合作签署了改善孟加拉国制衣工人工作环境的契约。


Companies have a responsibility to their shareholders, but they also have a responsibility to the societies that grant them the right to operate.	公司需要对股东负责，但也需要对给予它们经营活动权利的社会负责。


And they can fulfill both responsibilities profitably.	而它们可以在满足这两大责任的同时仍有盈利。


There is no evidence for Simon’s assertion that a commitment to social or environmental values is undermining US companies’ competitiveness.	西蒙斯说致力于社会或环境价值会削弱美国公司的竞争力，这是无稽之谈。


In fact, recent evidence suggests the opposite: social and environmental responsibility can be a source of long-term competitive advantage.	事实上，最新证据证明情况正好相反：社会和环境责任可以成为长期竞争优势的来源。


The Death of OPEC	欧佩克之死


IRVING, TEXAS – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is dead.	欧文，德克萨斯—石油输出国组织（欧佩克）死了。


Saudi Arabia killed it.	沙特阿拉伯杀死了它。


Now, OPEC is just a toothless zombie, attracting attention, but without having any impact on the living.	现在，欧佩克只是一条没了牙齿的僵尸，吸引着注意力但对生者已经毫无影响。


Few have noticed OPEC’s demise for a simple reason: it never really had the impact that it was widely perceived to have.	很少有人关注欧佩克的衰亡，原因很简单：它从来不曾具有人们广泛认为它所具有的影响力。


It was never actually a cartel, possessing monopolistic market power.	它从来不是真正的卡特尔， 拥有市场垄断力。


Anyone who thought otherwise was mistakenly attributing to it Saudi Arabia’s market power.	如果你不这样认为，那你一定是错误地把沙特阿拉伯的市场垄断力和欧佩克搞混了。


And Saudi Arabia’s power is expansive.	而沙特阿拉伯的垄断力非常大。


It remains the dominant producer in world oil markets, and its political and economic decisions shape global energy economics.	它仍是世界石油市场的主要生产国，其政治和经济决定左右着世界能源经济。


This impact will be intensified if the Kingdom resurrects Arab Light as the global benchmark crude.	如果沙特能复兴作为全球基准原油的阿拉伯轻油，这一影响力还将增加。


Of course, new players in the energy-production game could conceivably deal a blow to Saudi Arabia.	当然，不难想象，能源生产博弈的新来者能给沙特阿拉伯带来冲击。


But, so far, the Kingdom has managed to avoid serious injury.	但是，到目前为止，沙特王国成功避免了重创。


The shale-energy revolution in the United States, for example, has had a far-reaching international impact – far greater than expected.	比如，美国页岩能源革命产生了深远的国际影响——远远高于预期。


The Atlantic Basin ran an oil surplus – producing more than it consumed – for the first time in a half-century, while the Pacific Basin became the only dumping ground for crude.	大西洋盆地半个世纪以来第一次出现了石油盈余——即生产超过消费，这让太平洋盆地成为仅存的石油净流入地区。


The surge in domestically produced shale oil caused OPEC members Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria to lose significant market share in the US.	本地产页岩油产量激增让阿尔及利亚、安哥拉和尼日利亚等欧佩克成员失去了大量美国市场份额。


Yet that revolution has had little impact on Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Kuwait, owing to crude quality.	但这一革命对沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和科威特影响甚微，原因就在于原油的质量。


Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria were exporting to the US a kind of light sweet crude that is comparable to shale oil.	阿尔及利亚、安哥拉和尼日利亚出口美国的是一种轻质低硫原油（甜油），与页岩油相仿。


Yet many US refineries are still geared toward the heavier and more sour types of crude that the country imports from the Middle East.	但许多美国炼油商仍更加偏好美国进口自中东的较重和含硫量较高的原油（酸油）。


As a result, Saudi Arabia’s market share in the US seems relatively secure.	因此，沙特阿拉伯占美国市场的份额相对安全。


This is not to suggest that Saudi Arabia is invincible.	这并不意味着沙特阿拉伯不可撼动。


On the contrary, it has lost market share among the largest oil importers in Asia, which have increased their purchases of West African crude (diverted from the US).	相反，它已经失去了亚洲最大进口国的市场份额，这些国家增加了对西非原油的采购（与美国形成差异）。


Perhaps most painful, the Kingdom has lost substantial market share in China to Russia.	也许最痛苦的是，沙特王国在中国的巨大市场份额输给了俄罗斯。


Russian penetration of the Chinese market was spurred by the imposition of Western sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014.	俄罗斯对中国市场的渗透受2014年其入侵乌克兰、吞并克里米亚后的西方制裁的刺激。


China took full advantage of the Kremlin’s desperation, securing rock-bottom rates for Russian energy resources.	中国充分利用了克里姆林宫的急切心理，确保了以最低价获得俄罗斯能源资源。


Once the door to Asia was open, however, Russian companies seized the opportunity to enter the downstream markets of India and Indonesia – two countries that are critical to the Saudis’ own strategy.	但是，一旦打开了通往亚洲的大门，俄罗斯公司又抓住了进入下游的印度和印度尼西亚市场的机会——这两国家对沙特自身的战略至关重要。


Over the last two years or so, Saudi Arabia has made starkly clear that it will not easily give up its market share – to anyone.	过去两年中，沙特阿拉伯明确地表现出绝不会拱手让出其市场份额——不管对谁。


It has pursued a campaign to recover its former position not just in crude, but also in petroleum products, natural gas liquids, and petrochemicals.	它采取了一项计划，不但要恢复先前在原油市场上的地位，还要捍卫石油产品、液化天然气和石油化工方面的地位。


To this end, it has sustained a price war, supported by a boost in production, aimed at pushing out weaker competitors.	在这方面，沙特坚持价格战，以增产为依托，目标是挤出较弱的竞争对手。


At first, Saudi Arabia took aim at the shale industry.	沙特阿拉伯的目标首先是页岩行业。


But its strategy for asserting its dominance over global energy markets evolved over time, adapting to new economic information and political circumstances.	但其捍卫全球能源市场主导权的战略随时间而变化，依照新的经济情报和政治环境调整。


Ultimately, Saudi Arabia dragged all of OPEC into the price war.	最终，沙特阿拉伯将整个欧佩克拖入了价格战。


Countries increased their production for as long as they could, causing prices naturally to drop.	各国尽可能扩大产量，导致价格自然下跌。


When production peaked, the bottom fell out of the market, because OPEC members were forced to enter into direct price competition with one another.	当产量见顶时，价格见底，因为欧佩克成员国被迫彼此开展价格竞争。


The permanent internal rifts that all of this has produced were painfully apparent at this April’s OPEC meeting in Doha, where a deal to freeze output fell apart.	所有这些所造成的持久内讧在今年4月多哈举行的欧佩克会议上表现无疑。 在多哈会议上，冻结产能协议无疾而终。


Saudi Arabia refused to cut production unless Iran would do likewise.	沙特阿拉伯拒绝减产，除非伊朗也这么做。


But Iran – which, like Russia, had lost considerable market share as a result of Western sanctions – refused to cut production outright.	但伊朗——和俄罗斯一样，它因为西方制裁而已经失去了大量市场份额——断然拒绝减产。


Producers that lost market share in the US will not cut production, either.	失去了美国市场份额的石油生产国也不会减产。


By now, Saudi Arabia recognizes that low oil prices will not fully restore its market share in Asia and Europe.	到目前为止，沙特阿拉伯认识到低油价不能完全恢复其在亚洲和欧洲的市场份额。


But it also sees that it has no more use for OPEC, an organization that it foisted on the world with the first Arab oil embargo in 1973 and has since used as a shield for its oil policies.	但它也看到，欧佩克已经毫无用处。 这个它在1973年第一次阿拉伯石油禁运期间强加给世界的组织此后一直被用作沙特石油政策的屏障。


With the US shale revolution having rendered OPEC useless, Saudi Arabia has decided that its creature is not worth keeping alive.	随着美国页岩革命让欧佩克变得不再有用，沙特阿拉伯认为这个它所创造的东西已经没有存在下去的必要。


But this does not mean that there is no hope for energy cooperation.	但这并不意味着能源合作无望。


Saudi Arabia is now pursuing a major shift in its foreign, economic, and energy policies, exemplified by the impending privatization of a portion of Aramco, its national petroleum company, which is set to expand its refining capacity.	目前，沙特阿拉伯正在进行外交、经济和能源政策大转变，一个例子是其为扩大其炼油产能而成立的国有石化公司阿美公司（Aramco）即将部分私有化���


All of this suggests that competition in energy markets may shift from crude oil to refined products.	所有这些表明能源市场竞争可能从原油转移到精炼产品。


That would create new opportunities for cooperation: producers with large refining and storage capacity could purchase surplus oil from producers lacking such capacities.	这将创造新的合作机会：拥有巨大的炼油和储存产能的生产国可以从缺乏这些能力的生产国购买剩余原油。


A shift from competition in crude to competition in petroleum products would have a profound effect on global oil markets and related industries, like shipping.	从原油竞争转向石化产品竞争将给全球石油市场和相关行业（如航运）带来深远影响。


Ultimately, it would most likely boost the overall efficiency of the oil market and strengthen producers’ capacity to weather market volatility.	最终，这很可能刺激石油市场的总体效率并增强产油国抵御市场波动的能力。


The producers and refiners with the most sophisticated technologies would dominate – beginning with Saudi Arabia.	产油国和拥有最成熟技术的炼油国将成为主导——从沙特阿拉伯开始。


Opening Up Japan	开放日本


After a dozen years of stagnation, Japan's economy seems to be looking up.	几十年的停滞之后，日本的经济似乎正在回暖。


But appearances can deceive.	但表象是有欺骗性的。


Despite improvements and reforms, many of Japan's fundamentals remain woeful.	尽管改革使很多领域有所改善，但日本的不少基础领域依然前景堪忧。


Japan's decline has been palpable.	日本的经济衰退是显而易见的。


In the late 1980's, it was fashionable in some Japanese policy circles to argue that the Pax Americana was over, to be replaced in Asia by Pax Japonica.	20世纪80年代后期，日本政治圈流行着一种说法：即美国治下的和平已经结束，取而代之的是亚洲地区的日本和平。


America's economy seemed to be tanking, Japan's was soaring, and projections favored 2005 as the date when it would overtake the United States.	美国的经济动荡不定，而日本的经济却一路上扬，甚至有预测认为，2005年日本的经济就会彻底超越美国。


That things have turned out far differently reflects Japan's inertia.	如今迥然不同的结果恰恰反应了日本人思维的强大惯性。


The problems underlying Japan's decline are legion.	导致日本衰退的问题是多方面的。


Japanese policymakers and business leaders do not understand the concept of "creative destruction." Too many industrial dinosaurs are kept on life support.	对所谓"建设性破坏"的理念，日本的决策者和企业都不甚了了，有太多的工业恐龙靠救济存活。


So, although some firms do extremely well - say, Toyota and Canon - there is little space for new ventures and entrepreneurs.	因此，尽管有些公司效益非常不错，像丰田和佳能，但却几乎没有给新兴企业和创业者留下太多空间。


If Japan's economy were a computer, it would have a hard disk full of obsolescent programs and a "delete" button that doesn't work.	如果把日本经济比作一台电脑，那么它的硬盘里就装满了废弃不用的程序，而"删除"键就是不起作用。


No matter what criterion one uses, Japan's economy remains the most closed among OECD countries and one of the most closed in the world.	无论以何种尺度衡量，日本的经济仍然不仅是经合组织中最封闭的，也是世界各国中最封闭的。


Not only is foreign capital conspicuously absent, but so are foreign managers, workers, intellectuals, and ideas.	不仅外资难得一见，而且外国经理人、劳动力、知识分子和思想也踪影皆无。


Universities, think tanks, and the media are for the most part insular institutions.	大学、智囊团和媒体大部分都是与世隔绝的产物。


Similarly, while non-government organizations (NGO's) are a dynamic component in most societies nowadays, Japan has few, and major international NGO's are nonexistent or have only a weak presence.	与此相似，尽管非政府组织（NGO's）今天在多数国家都充满活力，但在日本却少之又少，国际主要的非政府组织甚至根本就不存在，即便存在力量也非常微弱。


Oxfam, one of the world's leading NGOs, with offices and branches all over the world, is absent altogether.	牛津饥荒救济委员会是全球最大的非政府组织之一，办事处和分支机构遍布世界各地，但在日本却踪迹皆无。


The closed nature of Japanese society and the dearth of ideas are partly attributable to the linguistic barrier.	语言障碍可以部分地解释日本社会的封闭和观点碰撞的缺乏。


Where Japan really falls short is in English - the global language, and thus the main purveyor of global ideas.	日本人不擅长英语－而英语既是国际语言也是全球思想的载体。


In Asia, Japan ranks above only North Korea in scores on the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) examination.	在亚洲，日本人在TOEFL外语考试中的成绩仅仅排在北朝鲜之前。


Moreover, Japan's demographics are among the worst in the world.	此外，日本的人口质量几乎也可以在世界垫底。


In this respect, Europe is not much better, although its current restrictive immigration policies will likely be eased over the next decade or so.	欧洲在这方面也没好到哪去，但它现行的限制移民政策有望在今后10年得到改变。


No such assumption can be made about Japan, where an aging population will intensify the closed and intellectually arid nature of its society.	但日本的情况很难估计，那里老龄化的人口会加剧日本社会的封闭和思想上的匮乏。


As one of the world's major trading powers, Japan should be a leading player in the World Trade Organization and in trade policy forums. Yet despite being one of the main beneficiaries of the post-World War II open and multilateral trading system, Japan stands out as a retrograde mercantilist state.	作为世界主要贸易大国，日本本应在世贸组织和贸易政策论坛中发挥领导作用，但尽管身为二战后开放和多边贸易体系的主要受惠国，日本却在积极倡导落后的重商主义理论。


Isolation has brought confusion about Japan's place in the world.	与世隔绝让日本在世界的地位变得不甚明朗。


While Japan's government lobbies hard to get a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, its Prime Minister regularly flouts Asian opinion by paying his respects to war criminals at the Yasukuni Shrine.	尽管日本政府拼命游说想争取安理会的常任席位，但日本首相频繁地到敬国神社参拜战犯却嘲弄了亚洲人民的感情。


Apart from the immorality of such public behavior (imagine a German chancellor paying his respects at Goebbels' grave!), the fact that both China and the US have veto power at the UN suggests that it is stupid even from the standpoint of Realpolitik .	除了上述缺乏道德的公众行为外（设想一下德国总理到戈培尔的墓前表示景仰！ ），中国和美国都拥有联合国否决权的事实表明：即便从现实政治的角度来看，这种想法也是十分愚蠢的。


Indeed, relations with China are Japan's most profound problem.	事实上，日中关系对日本的影响最为深远。


Japan's emergence as East Asia's leading power in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries involved three brutal wars in China, in which the Japanese army committed dreadful atrocities.	19世纪和20世纪早期日本作为东亚强国的历史牵涉到在中国发动的三次血腥战争，当时日军犯下了令人发指的杀戮罪行。


The 1949 communist takeover in China, the Cold War, America's adoption of Japan as its pampered protégé, and the failure to prosecute Emperor Hirohito for war crimes, allowed Japan to avoid a moral reckoning.	1949年中国共产党掌权、冷战、日本成为受美国纵容的保护国和未能以战争罪对裕仁天皇进行审判等，凡此种种，使日本得以逃避道德上的反省和清算。


Now, as China rises and Japan declines, the old, deep-seated suspicions, tensions, and distrust are resurfacing.	如今，随着中国的崛起和日本的衰落，这些旧有的、根深蒂固的怀疑、紧张和不信任重新浮出了水面。


Japan's grim outlook is bad news for the world because it is the globe's second leading economic power.	日本黯淡的前景对全世界都没有好处，因为它毕竟是全球第二大经济强国。


Prospects for Japan acting as a global economic locomotive and of playing a role in poverty reduction and economic development are, for now, almost nil.	现在来看，日本作为全球经济的火车头、在消除贫困和经济发展中发挥作用的可能性近乎为零。


Indeed, Japan's current growth is being driven overwhelmingly by trade with China - a country with only one-thirtieth of Japan per capita GDP!	事实上，日本目前的增长主要依靠对华贸易的驱动－而中国的人均国民生产总值不过是日本的三十分之一！


From a broader geopolitical perspective, the situation becomes alarming.	从更广泛的地缘政治角度看，这种情况应该引起人们的警惕。


Despite its frequent economic booms, Asia is also a strategic and security minefield.	尽管经济异常繁荣，但亚洲仍然是战略和安全方面的雷场。


A sclerotic, atavistic, nationalist, and inward-looking Japan can only aggravate the situation.	一个态度僵化、抱残守缺、民族主义和眼睛向内的日本只会让情况变得更加糟糕。


What should Japan do?	日本的出路何在？


The only solution for Japan is to open up - not only its economy, but its society, its universities, its media, its think tanks, and, indeed, its bars and bathhouses.	日本的唯一出路就是全面开放－不仅包括经济、社会、大学、媒体、智囊团，甚至还包括酒吧和浴室。


Many young Japanese - often the brightest and most entrepreneurial - demand to live in an open society, but the option they are choosing now is emigration.	很多年轻的日本人－一般是最聪明和最有能力的－都要求生活在开放的社会里，但要实现这个愿望，他们现在的选择只有移民。


An open Japan would, by definition, be more outward-looking, would speak better English so that it could communicate across Asia and the world, would be more influenced by foreign ideas - including ideas concerning war guilt.	开放的日本，具体来讲就是要眼睛向外、能更流利地应用英语与亚洲和世界交流，也更能接受国外的思想－其中也包括曾经犯下的战争罪行。


It has been 150 years since the "black ships" of America's Navy forcibly opened up Japan.	从美国海军的"黑色舰队"强行打开日本大门到现在150年已经过去了。


Today, the Japanese must open up their country themselves.	而今天，日本人必须靠自己打开国门。


Open-Source Pharmaceuticals?	信息开放的医药？


LONDON – Much attention has been focused in recent years on the pharmaceutical industry’s slowness to develop new drugs and lack of productivity. But this crisis of innovation is also affecting the biotechnology firms upon which the large pharmaceutical companies now rely as the pipeline for developing new drugs.	伦敦——


This has prompted an examination of all aspects of the biomedical research and development process, as companies try to cut costs and improve efficiency and productivity.	近几年来，制药业的新药品开发进程滞缓，生产力低下，对此，人们给予了极大的关注。


The result has been corporate mergers, reorganizations, and tens of thousands of job losses in the industry. None of this change, however, seems to have led to the radical shift required for companies to survive and thrive.	作为目前大型制药公司赖以开发新药品的渠道，生物科技公司也受到这种创新危机的影响。


What might such a shift look like?	这促使人们对生物医学研发过程展开全面的审视；


Some propose abandoning the current system of patented drugs altogether and funding pharmaceutical R&D through taxation or prize-based systems.	同时，制药公司在努力削减成本，提高生产效率和生产力，采取的措施包括公司合并、重组及多达上万人的裁员。 但所有这些举措似乎都没能带来制药公司生存与繁荣所需要的彻底的转变。


Another approach to solving problems of innovation – adopted by the computer software industry, for example – is pre-competitive openness and collaboration.	有些人建议取消现有的药品专利制度，通过税收和基于价格的体制资助医药研究与开发。 还有人建议通过竞争前的信息开放与合作方式来解决缺乏创新的问题，这种方式已被计算机软件行业所采纳。


Many large pharmaceutical companies are now espousing the virtue of these strategies, but will they work if adopted inconsistently by the industry and not at all by academia and funders?	许多大型的制药公司都对以上这些战略表示拥护，但如果缺乏整个行业、学术界及一些资助机构的支持，这些战略能得以实施吗？


Both approaches need strong senior management support, because they can succeed only in a culture very different from the more controlling, hierarchical R&D environment that remains prevalent today.	以上两种途径都需要企业高层管理层的有力支持，因为实施这种战略需要一种完全不同的文化环境，这种文化完全不同于现今占主导地位的以控制和分级制为特征的研发环境。


They also require much more active management of, and communication about, a company’s unused intellectual property (IP).	另外，对一家企业未使用过的知识产权（IP），还需要进行更多积极的管理和交流。


Few companies, however, have demonstrated that they are prepared to commit the time, effort, and resources to embrace a radically different way of operating.	但现在还没有几家公司表示，他们准备投入时间、精力和资源实行一种完全不同的运营方式。


Yet the tangible and intangible benefits of adopting new forms of collaboration – reducing the cost of failure, leveraging unused IP and external funding mechanisms, increasing access to networks of talent, and establishing greater trust among patients and other stakeholders – could be extensive.	采取这种新的合作方式，其带来的有形和无形的利润都很可观，包括降低失败成本，平衡未使用过的知识产权和外部资助机制，增加人才使用的渠道，以及在患者和其它利益相关者之间建立更大的信任等。


Moreover, these benefits would be realized not only by pharmaceutical companies, but also by academics and other collaborators.	另外，从中受益的不仅仅是制药公司，还包括学术界和其它合作机构。


One way to experiment with these new approaches is to try them out internally first.	一种方法是通过内部先行测试来试验这些新的策略是否可行。


The challenge for large organizations is to harness their employees’ knowledge by breaking down barriers and bringing people together to share insights and information.	对于大型机构而言，面临的困难是如何打破障碍，让人们聚在一起分享知识和信息，从而互补员工之所短。


The advent of computing platforms such as Microsoft’s SharePoint have facilitated data-sharing and exchange, and pharmaceutical companies would do well to emulate companies from other sectors, such as Arup, which has developed excellent systems for accessing knowledge across its entire organization.	引进诸如微软的Sharepoint软件可以提供一个计算机平台，促进企业内部的信息共享和交流。 制药公司可仿效其它行业，如Arup公司，该公司开发了出色的系统软件，实现了在其整个机构内的知识共享。


Some pharmaceutical companies like Lilly and Pfizer have demonstrated the power of this approach by implementing internal systems to seek solutions to problems organization-wide.	象礼来（Lilly）与辉瑞（Pfizer）这样的一些医药公司已经展现出通过实施内部系统来解决组织内问题的能力。


But it is clear that many of the challenges of the drug-development process are too large and complex for a single company or institution to solve internally.	但很显然，药品研发过程遇到的问题很大也很复杂，单靠一家公司或机构很难从内部加以解决。


This has led to an increase in pre-competitive and other forms of collaboration to access external innovation and tackle the bottlenecks in drug discovery and development.	这样就出现越来越多的竞争前信息共享和其它的一些合作形式，不仅可以获得外界的创新科技，而且可以消除药品开发过程中的瓶颈。


But pharmaceutical companies continue to hold assumptions about the boundaries of pre-competitive collaboration that need to be challenged.	但医药公司仍然对竞争前合作形式的界限存有疑问。


At first sight, it seems counterintuitive that companies would want to share data and potentially give away competitive advantages.	首先，分享数据对企业意味着可能失去竞争优势。


But this presupposes that the possession of such data does indeed imply a competitive advantage, and that a closed operating model is financially sustainable.	企业认为，数据独占体现出自己的竞争优势，所以封闭的运营模式在财务上是可持续发展的。


Drugs that make it to market have to fund the cost of failure of those that did not make it to the market.	已推向市场的药品获得的利润可以抵消一部分未推向市场的药品的研发成本。


As a recent Morgan Stanley report pointed out, the pharmaceutical industry’s current success rates are not sufficient to sustain large internal R&D organizations, making the industry’s current operating model financially non-viable. Thus, companies must either improve success rates or decrease the cost of failure.	摩根斯坦利近期发布的一份报告称，制药业现有的药品市场成功率不足以维持大型内部研发机构的发展，这使得该行业现有的运营模式在财政上是不可行的，企业不得不或者提高药品的市场成功率，或者减少药品失败的成本。


The two major causes of drug failure are lack of efficacy in humans and unexpected toxicity.	药品在市场上不成功有两个主要原因，其一是药品在人体内没有产生药效，其二就是药品本身存在不可预测的毒性。


So it is not surprising that the main areas of collaboration have been in the development of tools and technologies for target validation and the discovery and validation of biomarkers for efficacy and toxicity.	所以，合作的主要领域一直集中在工具和技术的开发上，这些工具和技术用于确立目标，寻找生物标记物以确认药品的药效和毒性。


Many large public-private consortia have been formed, including the Innovative Medicines Initiative and the Serious Adverse Events Consortium, but these efforts need to be coordinated and integrated in order to obtain the greatest possible benefit.	许多大型的公私联合体已经成立，包括创新药物计划与国际药物严重不良反应联盟，但需要各方统一协调行动，以便尽可能获得最大的利益。


In the future, the most effective pharmaceutical companies will be hubs at the center of a network of collaborators and suppliers, focusing internally on their core competencies, which might include medicinal chemistry, execution of clinical trials, or sales and marketing.	未来运作最高效的医药公司将是一个由合作伙伴和供应商所组成网络的信息中心，公司将重点关注其内部核心竞争力，包括医药化学、临床试验、销售及市场开发领域。


They will facilitate interactions across their network to stimulate the development of innovation ecosystems.	公司将促进该网络内部的互动，以刺激创新生态系统的发展。


The resulting opportunities to expand beyond traditional products and markets will enable pharmaceutical companies to evolve into companies that offer a range of health-care solutions.	随之产生的机遇将是超越传统产品和市场，使得制药公司发展成为能够提供一系列保健方案的公司。


These will include not only prescription medicines, but also diagnostics, branded generics, and technologies that support personalized medicine, as well as so-called “neutraceuticals” and other “wellness options.”	这些方案包括处方药、诊断法、品牌药品及开发个性化药品所需的技术，以及所谓的“保健���品”和其它“健康方案”


Although the size of many R&D organizations is bound to be reduced by such reforms, the complexities of managing and maximizing the impact of this external web of relationships will demand new skills and capabilities over and above those of excellent science.	尽管上述改革注定会缩小许多研发机构的规模，但要对外部关系网络进行管理，最大化地扩展其影响，其复杂性对员工技术和能力的要求将超过对其科研能力的要求。


Developing and rewarding employees who possess such skills will be an additional, but welcome, challenge. By doing this the pharmaceutical industry might not become open source, but will become more open for innovation.	对掌握这些技能的员工进行重用和奖励也将是一项额外的、但却受欢迎的挑战，藉此，制药行业不仅能成为开放的信息源，而且其创新的方式也更加开放。


Why Corruption Matters	论腐败的影响


WASHINGTON, DC – Pope Francis has called corruption “the gangrene of a people.”	华盛顿—教皇方济各称腐败是“人类的坏疽”。


US Secretary of State John Kerry has labeled it a “radicalizer,” because it “destroys faith in legitimate authority.”	美国国务卿克里说腐败是“激进化因素”，因为它“摧毁对合法权威的信仰”。


And British Prime Minister David Cameron has described it as “one of the greatest enemies of progress in our time.”	英国首相卡梅伦说腐败是“时代进步的最大敌人之一”。


Corruption, put simply, is the abuse of public office for personal gain.	简言之，腐败是为了个人利益而滥用公权。


As leaders increasingly recognize, it is a menace to development, human dignity, and global security.	领导人们日益认识到，腐败是对社会发展，人类尊严和全球安全的威胁。


At the anti-corruption summit in London on May 12, world leaders – together with representatives from business and civil society – will have a critical opportunity to act on this recognition.	在5月12日的伦敦反腐败峰会上，世界领导人以及来自商界和公民社会的代表将迎来对这一认识有所行动的关键机会。


Corruption is decried across cultures and throughout history.	纵观历史和各种文化，腐败无不受到谴责。


It has existed as long as government has; but, like other crimes, it has grown increasingly sophisticated over the last several decades, with devastating effects on the wellbeing and dignity of countless innocent citizens.	它的历史和政府一样久远，但和其他犯罪一样，它在过去几十年里变得越来越复杂，给无数无辜公民的福祉和尊严带来了灾难性的影响。


For starters, corruption cripples prospects for development.	首先，腐败令发展前景蒙尘。


When, say, public-procurement fraud is rampant, or royalties for natural resources are stolen at the source, or the private sector is monopolized by a narrow network of cronies, populations are unable to realize their potential.	比如说，当公共采购丑闻频发，或自然资源使用费在征收时即被盗用，抑或私营部门被一小撮朋党垄断时，公众就无法实现他们的潜力。


But corruption also has another, less-recognized impact.	但腐败还有另一个不太受到关注的影响。


As citizens watch their leaders enrich themselves at the expense of the population, they become increasingly frustrated and angry – sentiments that can lead to civil unrest and violent conflict.	当公民目睹领导人通过榨取百姓获取财富时，他们就会日益沮丧和愤怒——这种情绪可能导致民变和暴力冲突。


Many current international security crises are rooted in this dynamic.	这就是当今众多国际安全危机的根源。


Indignation at the highhanded behavior of a corrupt police officer helped to drive a Tunisian fruit seller to set himself on fire in 2010, touching off revolutions across the Arab world.	2010年，一位突尼斯水果小贩出于对一位腐败警官专横行为的愤慨而自焚，点燃了整个阿拉伯世界的革命之火。


Protesters demanded that specific ministers be arrested and put on trial, and they called for the return of pilfered assets – demands that were rarely met.	示威者要求逮捕主事部长并将他们送上法庭，并要求归还夺走的资产——这样的要求很少得到满足。


In places where government officials enjoy (and often flaunt) their enrichment and impunity, extremist movements – including the Taliban, Boko Haram, and the Islamic State – exploit citizens’ outrage.	当政府官员享受（并常常炫耀）这种非法的致富和逃避惩罚时，极端运动——包括塔利班、博科圣地（Boko Haram）和伊斯兰国——就会利用公民之怒。


The only way to restore public integrity, these groups assert, is by means of a rigidly applied code of personal conduct.	他们宣称，重塑公信的唯一之道是通过刻板地遵守个人行为守则。


With no viable recourse – and no avenue for peaceful appeal – such language has grown increasingly persuasive.	在没有切实相关的资料，也缺乏和平表达诉求的渠道的情况下，这样的宣传日益深入人心。


It is clear that corruption must be combated.	显然，腐败是必须要被打击的。


What is less clear is how to do it.	不那么显而易见的是如何打击腐败。


In a world of competing demands, corrupt governments may seem to serve vital purposes.	在这个需求竞争激烈的世界上，腐败的政府可能看似在追求某些重要目标。


One deploys soldiers to the fight against terrorism; another provides critical energy supplies or access to raw materials.	它可能派遣部队打击恐怖主义，可能提供着关键的能源或原材料供应。


Leaders must inevitably contend with difficult tradeoffs.	领导人难免要在不同的权衡间掂量。


To determine the best approach in each specific case, governments must analyze the problem more effectively, which means improving the collection of intelligence and data.	为决定每一具体个案的最佳解决方法，政府必须更有效地分析问题，这意味着改善情报和数据的收集。


As security expert Sarah Chayes argues in Against Corruption, the volume of essays that the British government will publish to accompany the summit, corruption today is structured practice.	安全专家莎拉查耶斯（Sarah Chayes）在英国政府为反腐峰会而编著的论文集《反腐败》（Against Corruption）中指出，当今的腐败是结构性行为（structured practice）。


It is the work of sophisticated networks, not unlike organized crime (with which corrupt agents are often integrated).	腐败是成熟的网��化行为，与有组织犯罪别无二致（腐败官员也常常参与有组织犯罪）。


Governments must study these activities and their consequences the same way they study transnational criminal or terrorist organizations.	政府必须像研究跨国犯罪或恐怖组织一样研究这些行为和它们的后果。


Armed with such assessments, donor countries must structure assistance in a way that mitigates corruption risks.	此外在评估的基础上，赞助国必须以能够降低腐败风险的方式安排援助。


Military or development assistance is not apolitical.	军事或发展援助并非无关政治。


Programs must be tailored to ensure that funds are not captured by kleptocratic elites.	援助项目必须精准安排以确保资金不会被强盗精英攫取。


This means that anti-corruption efforts can no longer be shunted off to under-resourced specialists; they must be central to the planning of major development initiatives or the sale of costly weapons systems.	这意味着反腐措施不能再指派给资源不足的专家； 他们必须成为重大发展项目规划或昂贵武器系统销售的中心。


Recipient governments must understand that funding will dry up if they continue to squander or steal it.	受助国必须明白，如果他们继续浪费或盗用捐助款项，资金就会被切断。


In fact, corruption and its implications must inform the way Western officials interact with their counterparts in the developing world.	事实上，腐败及其影响必须让西方官员明白应该用什么方式与发展中国家官员打交道。


The departments that we spent our careers serving – the US State Department and the US Department of Defense – set great store by building relationships.	我们所供职的部门——美国国务院和美国国防部——非常重视关系构建。


Diplomats depend on these relationships to advance their national interests, and professional ties between military officers are sometimes the only channels that weather political storms.	外交官依赖这些关系推进国家利益，而军事官员间的职业联系有时是抵御政治风暴的唯一渠道。


But diplomats and military brass alike should be willing to take a step back when appropriate, condition their interactions, and make use of available leverage – even at the risk of a counterpart’s wrath.	但外交官和军官应该时刻准备着在合适时有所不为，克制他们的互动，并利用可用的杠杆——哪怕这可能导致对方的愤怒。


But, as recent revelations about purveyors of shell companies or bribery by intermediaries demonstrate, much of the real leverage is to be found at home – in the domestic financial and property industries, in public relations and law firms that burnish kleptocrats’ images, and in universities that educate corrupt officials’ children and solicit their donations.	但是，近期揭露的空客公司承办人或有中间人参与的贿赂行为表明，许多真正的杠杆存在于国内——在国内金融和房地产业，在粉饰贪官污吏形象的公关公司和律师事务所，在腐败官员子女就读和吸引他们捐款的大学。


The application of the US Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act to indict officers of FIFA, soccer’s international governing body, shows how focusing on Western service providers can curb corruption among foreign officials.	利用反犯罪组织侵蚀合法组织法 (RICO)让国际足联官员伏法表明，关注西方服务提供者能够遏制外国官员的腐败。


Another important tool in the fight against corruption will be technological innovation, which can reduce opportunities for wrongdoing, empower citizens to highlight illegal practices, and enhance government transparency and accountability.	打击腐败的另一个重要工具是技术创新。 技术创新可以减少不法行为的发生机会，让公民能够揭露非法行为，并增强政府透明度和可问责性。


Strides have already been made in a number of areas, from electronic voter registration to electronic payments for civil servants.	诸多领域在这一方面已经取得了进步，包括电子选民登记和公务员薪酬电子支付系统。


While technology is no panacea, when paired with wise policy reforms, it can make a meaningful contribution to the fight for good governance.	虽然技术不是万灵丹，但如果能与明智的政策改革相配合，就能够极大地帮助改良治理。


None of these suggestions will be easy to implement. But, to address many of the crises currently besetting the world, a strong focus on combating corruption is vital.	这些建议实施起来都不容易，但是要解决目前困扰世界的诸多危机，大力打击腐败是至关重要的。


Our hope is that the upcoming conference in London demonstrates the unity of purpose and commitment to action that is so badly needed.	希望即将召开的伦敦会议能展现出我们解决这一问题共同的目标和坚决的行动。


Standing Up to Illiberalism	抵制反自由主义


LONDON – It is a rare political speech that stops me in my tracks.	伦敦—一则政治讲话让我停下行程，这是很罕见的。


But that is exactly what happened this summer when I read a remarkable address by Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s increasingly authoritarian prime minister.	但是，今年夏天，当我读到朝极权方向越走越远的匈牙利总理奥班令人瞩目的演讲时，就发生了这一情况。


Orbán rarely commands attention outside of his country.	奥班很少在匈牙利国外引起关注。


The last time he gave a speech as noteworthy as this summer’s was 25 years ago, when, as a young man, he helped break the back of communism in Europe.	他上一次发表如今年夏天那样值得关注的讲话还是在25年前，当时，身为青年的他帮助欧洲击败了共产主义。


Speaking in June 1989 at the reburial of Imre Nagy – who led Hungary during its 1956 anti-Soviet uprising – Orbán angrily demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Hungarian territory.	1989年，他在伊姆雷·纳吉（Imre Nagy，1956年匈牙利反苏联叛乱时的领导人）的重葬仪式上发表演讲，愤怒地要求俄国军队撤出匈牙利领土。


This summer, however, Orbán struck an entirely different note.	但是，在今年夏天，奥班采取了完全不同的立场。


He delivered a speech in favor of what he called the “illiberal state,” offering five examples of successful “systems that are not Western, not liberal, not liberal democracies, and perhaps not even democracies.”	他的演讲支持他所谓的“不自由国家”，还提出了五个成功的“非西方、非自由、非自由民主甚至非民主的制度”的例子。


Russia and China were among them.	俄罗斯和中国位列其中。


It was as though the Iron Curtain and the tanks that crushed Nagy’s government – let alone Orbán’s younger self – had never existed.	好像铁幕和碾碎纳吉政府——更不用说更年轻的奥班本人——的坦克 从未存在过。


Russia and China may no longer be communist, but they certainly are illiberal and definitely not democratic.	俄罗斯和中国也许不再是共产主义国家，但它们显然是不自由的国家，也绝对是不民主的国家。


Russia is poised somewhere between authoritarianism and totalitarianism; and, for all of China’s recent economic progress, the rising Asian power remains squarely in the same camp.	俄罗斯位于威权（authoritarianism）和极权（totalitarianism）之间，而尽管中国的经济取得了长足进步，但这个崛起的亚洲列强依旧显然与俄罗斯处于同一阵营。


Orbán’s remarks, and his subsequent announcement of plans to implement his vision of “an illiberal state,” were greeted with shock.	奥班的评论，以及随后宣布实施其自身的“不自由国家”计划的举动令人震惊。


How could he profess such views as the leader of a European Union member state, even as he stuffed his government’s coffers with EU subsidies?	身为欧盟成员国，他如何可以公然表示这一观点？ 哪怕欧盟的补贴把它的政府金库喂得饱饱的？


The truth is that Orbán was merely echoing an increasingly widespread argument (though one that usually is expressed more delicately).	真相是奥班只是在呼应一个日益普遍的观点（尽管这一观点通常不会这么直白地表达出来）。


Six years after the start of the global financial crisis, many are beginning to ask uncomfortable questions.	全球金融危机爆发六年后，许多人开始提出令人不快的问题。


How can liberal democracies remain globally competitive?	自由民主如何保持全球竞争力？


Have Western democracies lost their self-confidence and their ability to deliver a better life for their citizens?	西方民主国家已经失去信心和为公民带来更好的生活的能力了吗？


Are America and Europe in decline, haggard and living on past glories?	美国和欧洲正在衰落，正躺在昔日的光荣簿上独自憔悴吗？


What Orbán would describe as the “liberal democracies” in the United States and Europe are indeed weighed down by internal problems.	奥班所谓的美国和欧洲“自由民主”确实被内部问题所困扰。


In the US, polarized politics, gerrymandered Congressional districts, and a constitution that seems to check more than it balances, have obstructed reforms and left the country seemingly adrift in choppy waters.	在美国，政治极化、对国会选取的不公正划分以及日渐“制”（check）大于“衡”（balance）的宪法阻挠了改革，也让经济陷于风雨飘摇。


The middle class is being hollowed out, and failed overseas adventures have discouraged the once “indispensable nation” from bearing the burden of global leadership.	中产阶级正在被掏空，失败的海外行动让这个曾经“不可或缺的国家”不再敢于承担全球领导责任。


America remains indispensable; alas, it has allowed the notion that it is unavailable for duty to take root.	美国仍是不可或缺的； 可惜，它让这个概念不再成为责任的根基。


At the same time, Europe seems incapable of upholding the social contract that underpinned its post-war economic boom.	与此同时，欧洲似乎已无力维持为其带来战后经济繁荣的社会契约。


The continent’s most successful economy, Germany, insists that its partners follow its brand of fiscal conservatism, choking off the growth that would make painful reforms easier to implement.	欧洲大陆最成功的经济体——德国坚持要伙伴国效仿其财政保守主义榜样，抑制了可以让痛苦的改革更容易实施的增长。


With the world’s most successful democracies obsessed with recent failures, international politics has drifted toward more dangerous potential outcomes.	全球最成功的民主国家纷纷被目前的失败所困扰，国际政治正在转向更加危险的潜在结果。


Sensible deterrence, bold efforts to reform international institutions, and a readiness to fulfill responsibilities have all fallen victim to the West’s exaggerated sense of failure and political stalemate.	明智的威慑、果断的国际机构改革措施以及时刻准备着承担责任，所有这些都沦为了西方日益弥漫的挫败感和政治僵局的受害者。


And yet, even as Western democracies seem least able to act, more will be required of them.	而尽管西方民主国家的行动能力已经下降到最低水平，但对它们的要求却在增加。


None of the countries that Orbán cited in his speech has offered an alternative vision of world order.	奥班所提到的国家中没有一个提出过世界秩序的替代方案。


On the contrary, their domestic problems threaten to turn uncertainty into peril.	相反，它们的国内问题只能把不确定性变成危险。


Russia will have to confront the impact of a collapse in oil prices on its petro-economy.	俄罗斯必须面对油价崩溃对其依赖石油经济的影响。


Major firms are begging for government handouts to tide them over.	大企业正在乞求政府出手相救。


The ruble is falling like a stone.	卢布正在呈自由落体下跌。


It will be a tough winter in Moscow and St. Petersburg.	莫斯科和圣彼得堡将面临严冬。


Even China’s supersonic growth is beginning to slow; some economists, including Larry Summers, are predicting that it could grind suddenly to a halt.	甚至中国的超常增长也开始回落； 拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）等一些经济学家预测中国可能突然陷入停顿。


Either way, the road ahead is likely to be bumpy, with increasing friction where politics rubs against economics.	无论如何，前路都充满了坎坷，政治和经济的对立日益加剧。


At home (most notably in Hong Kong) and abroad, China gives the impression that the word “compromise” does not exist in Mandarin.	在国内（特别是香港）和国外，中国给人的印象是中文里没有“妥协”（compromise）一词。


Orbán’s putative political role models are likely to become even more shrill and nationalist in foreign policy as they attempt to retain domestic support.	奥班所想象的政治榜样试图保持国内支持，它们的外交政策可能会更加刺耳和民族���义。


In order to secure peace on the home front, leaders will point to the enemies – real or imaginary – at the gate.	为了确保国内和平，领导人将把矛头指向门口的敌人——不管是真实的敌人还是想象的敌人。


The world’s liberal democracies must start believing in themselves again.	世界自由民主国家必须重振旗鼓证明自己。


They must prove that Orbán’s remarks were nothing more than bombastic nonsense.	它们必须证明奥班的评论只不过是一无是处的嘴炮。


If we want the “peace on earth and mercy mild” promised in our Christmas carols, we will need to work much harder and more confidently to secure them.	如果我们想要获得圣诞颂歌中的“地球和平、仁慈宽恕”，我们就需要以更大的努力、更大的信心确保它们。


Gays on the Front Line	身居前线的同性恋者


PARIS – The mass shooting in Orlando, Florida, last weekend has so far claimed 50 lives (including the killer), with more than 50 others wounded – some seriously. It has also left at least three questions to be answered.	巴黎—上周在佛罗里达州奥兰多发生的大规模枪击案已经造成50人死亡（包括凶手在内）和50多人受伤——其中一些伤势严重，并且至少留下了三个问题。


First, there is the issue of the easy availability of weapons of war across most of the United States.	首先是美国大部分地区可以轻易获得战争武器的问题。


It is estimated that several million AR-15 semiautomatic rifles (the type used in the Orlando killings and by US soldiers in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) are in circulation in the US.	据估计，美国有数百万支AR-15半自动步枪（奥兰多袭击案和美国在阿富汗和伊拉克战争中使用的都是这款步枪）流通。


In most US states, the criteria for obtaining one are to be at least 18 years of age (three years lower than the drinking age) and have no criminal record or obvious manifestation of mental illness.	在大部分州，持枪标准是至少达到18岁（比饮酒年龄低三岁）并且没有犯罪记录或明显的精神病症状。


A majority of Americans consider possession of such weapons a basic right, defined and codified by the Second Amendment to the US Constitution.	大部分美国人认为拥有这些武器是一项基本权利，受美国宪法第二修正案的保护和规定。


Indeed, Americans, having been told for decades by Charlton Heston, Wayne LaPierre, and other leaders of the all-powerful National Rifle Association that there is no better way to protect oneself and one’s family, now own more than 300 million firearms.	事实上，几十年来，查尔顿·赫斯顿（Charlton Heston）、韦恩·拉皮埃尔（Wayne LaPierre）和其他炙手可热的美国步枪协会（National Rifle Association）领导人一直告诉美国人，除此之外没有更好的保护自己和家庭的方法。 目前美国人拥有超过3亿支枪支。


President Barack Obama has said and repeated what reasonable Americans understand: the stockpile of assault weapons – small in size but massive in their destructiveness – in private hands constitutes an invisible but legal arsenal.	总统奥巴马一再强调理性美国人所能理解的东西：私人保有攻击性武器——个头小但杀伤力巨大——构成了一个不可见但合法的武器库。


It is a time bomb of which everyone is aware.	这是人人都知道的定时炸弹。


Given its ubiquity, the question is not whether there will be other killings similar to the one in Orlando.	由于枪支无处不在，问题已不再是是否会再次发生类似于奥兰多的案件。


That there will be is a foregone conclusion.	答案必然是肯定的。


The question, alas, is when and where.	唉，问题在于何时、何地。


Second, there is the question of radical Islam and the borderless war that it has declared on the world.	其次是激进伊斯兰及其对全世界宣战的无界战争问题。


One can hold forth on the theme of the “lone wolf” who falls into terrorism the way others fall into bed.	你可以大谈“独狼”像其他人上床那样落入恐怖主义的话题。


One can listen repeatedly to the inevitable testimony of friends and family that they did not see this coming, no sign whatsoever, that the killer had been a good son, polite to his neighbors, with no particular story that would raise suspicions.	你可以不断听见老生常谈，诸如朋友和家人说他们不曾想到会发生这样的事啦，事发前没有任何迹象啦，杀手是个好儿子，知书达理，没有任何能引起怀疑的故事啦，等等。


One can also dismiss the killer’s connection to terror groups; the Islamic State (ISIS) did not own the incident until after the killer himself, in the midst of the attack, pledged his allegiance and thus put a label on his actions.	你还可以否认杀手与恐怖组织有涉； 伊斯兰国直到杀手本人在行凶途中宣布效忠、从而给他的行动贴上了标签后才宣布对此事件负责。


(This is not so novel as many think: Italy’s Red Brigades sometimes worked in the same manner.)	（这并不像很多人所认为的那样离奇：意大利的红色旅有时也会这样做。


The fact remains that the killer frequented the Fort Pierce mosque, which has produced at least one other American who went to fight in Syria.	）事实仍然是，杀手经常去皮尔斯堡（Fort Pierce）清真寺，而该清真寺至少产生了一名前往叙利亚参加战斗的美国人。


And here we have another confirmation of something that I have maintained since my book about the Wall Street Journal journalist Daniel Pearl and the implantation in the US of Pakistani-directed cells, which Pearl was investigating when he was abducted and murdered.	而在这里，我们又证实了一点，即我在我关于《华尔街记者》丹尼尔·珀尔（Daniel Pearl）以及巴基斯坦人管理的单身监狱在美国的渗透情况的书中所揭露的东西。 珀尔因为调查此事而被绑架和杀害。


It is a disquieting fact: The United States is no better protected against jihadism than other countries.	这是个令人不安的事实：美国并没有比其他国家获得更好的针对圣战主义的保护。


No less than Europe, the US is a prime target for fanatical Islam and its assassins.	美国是狂热伊斯兰及其杀手的主要对象，一点都不亚于欧洲。


Instead of repeating like a broken record that “this has nothing to do with Islam,” it is time to admit that the US has become yet another theater in the battle between the Islam of the radicals and the Islam of enlightenment and the rule of law.	现在，美国不应该重复“这与伊斯兰教无关”之类的老生常谈，而应该承认美国已经成为激进伊斯兰与开明伊斯兰和法治之间的战斗的新战场。


Finally, there is the question of homophobia and anti-gay violence.	最后是恐同和反同暴力问题。


I have lost track of the number of US states that are suing the Obama administration over executive orders viewed as excessively “gay-friendly.”	我记不清有多少美国州曾经起诉过被认为过于“同性恋友好”的奥巴马政府行政命令。


And Sunday’s bloodbath can be seen as the latest episode in a series of lethal attacks dating back at least to 1973, when 32 men whose only crime was being gay were burned alive in the UpStairs Lounge in New Orleans.	而周日的流血事件可以视为一系列致命袭击的最新例子，这一系列袭击至少可以追溯到1972年，当时，32人在新奥尔良楼上酒吧（UpStairs Lounge）被活活烧死，原因仅仅是他们是同性恋。


In Europe, same-sex marriage laws and antidiscrimination measures have not been able to prevent exhortations to “kick some faggot ass,” to “shove them in the oven,” or, when the writer is in a good mood, to subject gays to compulsory psychiatric treatment.	在欧洲，同性婚姻法和反歧视措施也无法防止“踢烂他们的屁股”、“把他们送进烤箱”这样的警告，或者当作者情绪好时，要求同性恋者接受强制性精神治疗。


These are just a few of the more popular affirmations of our common humanity to be found on online social networks and, often enough, in offline settings as well.	这些只是在线社交网络以及在线下也时常见到的更普遍的共同人性肯定的一小部分。


Then there is Russia, where, under Vladimir Putin’s autocratic regime, it has never been so hard to be LGBT.	还有俄罗斯，在普京的极权统治下，LGBT群体举步维艰。


Encouraged by the Kremlin’s anti-gay stance (the Russian minister of health has described gays as mentally ill) and alliance with the Orthodox Church, groups of citizens trap gays, humiliate them, force them to drink urine, openly beat them, and sometimes kill them.	受克里姆林宫反同性恋立场的鼓励（俄罗斯卫生部将同性恋者定义为精神疾病）下，公民组织与东正教会合作给同性恋者挖陷阱，羞辱他们，强迫他们喝尿，公开殴打他们，有时候还杀害他们。


What the Orlando slaughter reminds us is that gays, as a group, are among the targets – along with Jews, Christians, blasphemers, and apostates – considered legitimate by worldwide jihadism.	奥兰多屠杀提醒我们，作为一个群体，同性恋者是全球圣战主义眼中的合法目标——和犹太人、基督徒、渎神者和叛教者一样。


ISIS’s manuals of inquisition have added gays to the political hit list, declaring against them the same war without mercy.	伊斯兰国的宗教法庭手册将同性恋者列为政治打击目标，好不留情地同样对他们宣战。


Under the regime of the self-described Caliphate, gays are to be thrown from rooftops, buried alive, stoned, tortured, and mutilated.	在自称为哈里发的伊斯兰国，同性恋者被从房顶抛下，被活埋，被处以石刑，被虐待，被砍手脚。


We now know that in Europe and the US, they are to be placed before a one-man firing squad.	现在我们知道，在欧洲和美国，他们还可以被置于一个人的行刑队面前。


Orphan Ideas	孤儿观点


CHICAGO – Since the United States Supreme Court’s “Citizens United” decision, which prohibited the government from restricting independent political expenditures by corporations and unions, concern about business interests’ influence over US elections has been growing.	芝加哥—自从美国最高法院做出“公民联盟”（Citizen United）裁决——禁止政府限制公司和工会的独立政治支出——以来，人们对商业利益影响美国选举的担忧便与日俱增。


But political contributions are only one reason why business interests have so much power.	但政治献金只是商业利益炙手可热的原因之一。


When it comes to lobbying, money is not everything: ideas play a big role, too.	在游说这件事上，钱并不是万能的，观点也起着重要作用。


Unfortunately, rather than leveling the playing field, the battle of ideas may skew US politics even further in favor of big business.	不幸的是，观点之争并没让竞争变得平等，反而导致美国政治愈加朝着有利于大企业利益的方向倾斜。


The importance of ideas can be seen from the simplest things.	观点的重要性从日常小事中便可一窥端倪。


Congressional bills aimed at benefiting powerful constituencies are generally given appealing (and misleading) names.	有利于权势出资人的国会法案经常会被冠以诱人（同时也相当具有误导效果）的名字。


For example, a tax holiday to repatriate foreign earnings was called the “American Job Creation Act.”	比如，汇回海外收入所享受的免税期被称为“美国就业创造法”（American Job Creation Act）。


It is easier to sell a bill that (allegedly) benefits everyone in society, not just a small group of its most privileged members.	（宣称）让社会所有人，而不仅仅是顶端特权人群都得到好处的法案更容易被通过。


More importantly, the lobbying of the quasi-governmental mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would not have been so successful without the idea of the “ownership society.”	更重要的是，如果没有“所有权社会”的观点，准政府按揭贷款商房利美和房地美当初就不会那么成功。


How could anyone oppose turning every American into an owner?	谁会反对让每一位美国人都拥有房子这样的想法？


It is precisely the appeal of such ideas that can make them so dangerous politically.	正是这种观点的诱惑力让它们产生了如此危险的政治破坏力。


If ideas are like weapons in lobbying, it is important to appreciate the possible distortions in the market for their creation and diffusion.	如果说观点像是游说利器的话，那么潜在市场扭曲在创造和散播观点方面起到了重要作用。


New ideas are like new drugs.	新观点就像是新药品。


While some pharmacologists dedicate their lives to searching for the cure for cancer, regardless of any monetary incentives, many are driven by the hope of securing a lucrative patent.	有的药学家将毕生精力倾注于寻找治疗癌症的新方，即使没有金钱激励也在所不惜，但大多数药学家如此投入的目的是希望获得利润丰厚的专利权。


Even if researchers themselves are motivated by only the noblest of goals, their need for funding forces them to take into account profitability.	即使研究者本身的唯一动机是目标的高尚性，他们也需要筹资，因此不得不算计利润。


That is why we have so-called “orphan drugs,” from which not enough money can be made because they cure rare diseases or diseases (like malaria) that affect people who cannot afford to pay for them.	这就是为什么会有“孤儿药”（orphan drug）的出现。 孤儿药因为只能用于医治罕见病或患者通常无力支付药费的病症（如疟疾）而不可能赚到足够的钱。


The process of creating new economic ideas (or new evidence about old ideas) is not that different.	创造新经济观点（或旧观点的新证据）的过程也与此相去不远。


Researchers do not get patents, but they get citations, recognition, and promotions.	研究者得不到专利权，但可能被引用，被承认，名声大噪。


While some researchers dedicate their lives to the search for truth, regardless of any personal gain, many are driven by the hope of academic stardom and the money that comes with it.	一些研究者皓首穷经只为寻找真理，完全不计个人名利，但大多数研究者如此投入的目的成为学术明星、获得因此带来的滚滚财富。


Even if researchers themselves are motivated by only the noblest of goals, their need for funding forces them to take into account the demand for ideas.	即使研究者本身的唯一动机是目标的高尚性，他们也需要筹资，因此不得不算计观点的需求。


And, if funding is not a major issue, the mechanism of amplification of an idea (and thus its ultimate diffusion) nonetheless depends upon how appealing it is to some lobbying effort.	此外，即使筹资并不是主要问题，观点（及其最终扩散）的放大机制也取决于它对于游说的价值。


Consider a great researcher in my field, Michael Jensen.	就拿我所在领域中的佼佼者迈克尔·延森（Michael Jensen）来说吧。


In 1990, he co-wrote a paper about executive pay, arguing that it was not sufficiently linked to performance.	1990年，他与人合作写了一篇关于高管薪酬的论文，指出高管薪酬与他们表现并不是充分挂钩的。


Although the authors used an untenable benchmark to determine that the sensitivity of pay to performance was too low, the article was published in a top economic journal, prominently discussed in the Harvard Business Review, and is one of the most cited papers in economics.	尽管两位作者关于薪酬对表现敏感度过低的结论是基于一个并不牢固的出发点得出的，但这篇文章还是出现在了顶级经济学期刊上，《哈佛商业评论》在显眼的位置对该文进行了讨论。


Fifteen years later, Jensen wrote a paper about the costs of excessive sensitivity of pay to performance.	这篇文章也是经济学中被引用最多的文章之一。 15年后，延森又写了一篇成本对表现过度敏感的文章。


The paper was published in a minor journal and is not very well cited.	这篇文章发表在次要刊物上，鲜有人引用。


Why?	为什么会这样？


Business loved the first paper, because it shifted the conversation from how much executives were paid (a very controversial topic) to how they should be paid (a more technical and less contentious issue).	商界喜欢前一篇文章，因为它将高管获得多少薪酬（争议话题）转移为应该获得多少薪酬（技术性更强、争议更少的问题）。


And, since companies cannot make executives pay out of their pockets for bad performance, the shift in focus ended up justifying an increase in pay.	此外，由于公司无法因为表现不佳而让高管把薪酬吐出来，这一话题的转移最终可以用于证明加薪的正确性。


There was no similar love for the second paper, which languishes almost unknown, despite its important insights.	而后一篇文章就没有类似的惊喜之处，因此默默无闻地堙没了，尽管其中不乏重要洞见。


Jensen, a researcher of the highest integrity and fame, is free to write on both sides of this issue.	延森是一位大名鼎鼎的诚实研究者，大可以随心所欲地撰写关于这一问题任何一面的文章。


But the two papers’ asymmetric citation payoff is a warning for young scholars: if they want to get ahead professionally, the position that they should take is clear.	但两篇文章引用率的天壤之别不啻于对年轻学者的一个警示：要想在专业上出人头地，应该把屁股放在哪里显而易见。


From venture capital to telecommunications, from the construction industry to teachers’ unions, there is plenty of demand for evidence that celebrates the benefits of these industries and justifies (implicitly or explicitly) government subsidies to them.	从风险资本到通信，从建筑业到教师工会，每个行业都需要证据证明其重要性，证明其获得（显性和隐性）政府补贴的必要性。


There is no equally organized and active demand for evidence that all of these subsidies are distortionary, waste money, and make companies less rather than more competitive.	至于在证明这些补贴具有扭曲性，纯属浪费公帑，只能让企业竞争力下降而不是提升等方面，则不存在有组织的活跃需求。


Here is perhaps the biggest orphan idea: pro-market does not necessarily mean pro-business.	也许最大的孤儿观点就在这里：支持市场并不一定就是支持商业的。


A pro-business agenda aims at maximizing the profits of existing firms; a pro-market agenda, by contrast, seeks to encourage the best business conditions for everyone.	支持商业的计划的目标是实现现有企业的利润最大化，与此相反，支持市场的计划旨在为每个人带来最佳商业环境。


Who benefits from evidence that an industry is too concentrated, its profit margins are too high, and consumers are being ripped off?	提出某行业太过集中、其利润率太���、消费者有被欺诈之嫌的证据，最大的受益者是谁？


As with malaria drugs, millions of people would benefit from such an idea, but their ability to pay is limited.	就像疟疾药一样，这种观点会让千百万人受益，但却很难获得回报。


And, sure enough, in most of what we economists write – and, more important, in what we teach in business schools – it is hard to tell the difference between being pro-market and being pro-business.	此外，毫无疑问，在我们经济学家的作品中——更重要的是，在我们的商学院授课中——大部分时候很难说明白自持市场和支持商业的区别。


The battle against crony capitalism starts in the classroom, and we professors are inevitably implicated.	与权贵资本主义的斗争从课堂就开始了，我们当教授的不可避免地牵涉其中。


If we are not part of the solution, we are part of the problem.	如果我们不能称为解决问题的一部分，那么就会沦为问题的一部分。


Osama bin Laden, Bard of Terror	恐怖吟游诗人本拉登


PRINCETON – In Riyadh last March, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia decorated American Vice President Dick Cheney with the Kingdom’s Order of Merit.	普林斯顿--今年三月在利雅得，沙特国王阿卜杜拉授予美国副总统切尼王国勋章。


This gesture elicited hundreds of Internet postings from Arabs condemning the award as treachery and lamenting the pitiful state of leadership in the Arab world.	这一姿态引发了阿拉伯人几百条的网贴，谴责授予勋章是叛逆行为并且哀叹阿拉伯世界领导无方。


To cite only one comment, addressed to the King: “Shame on you for claiming to be Custodian of the Two Holy Sanctuaries” in Mecca and Medina.	其中一个帖子是写给国王的，它写道：“你自称是两个圣地的守护人，真是恬不知耻”。 这两个圣地在麦加和麦地那。


At the same time, Osama bin Laden released two audio statements condemning Western and Israeli attacks on Muslims and reiterating the need for violent warfare to liberate occupied Muslim territories from the infidels.	与此同时，本拉登发布了两份录像声明，谴责西方和以色列攻击穆斯林并且重申需要发动暴力战争来把穆斯林被占领土从异教徒手中解放出来。


In terms of media strategy, the contrast between the leaders of the Arab countries and bin Laden could not be starker.	在媒体策略方面，阿拉伯国家领导人和本拉登之间有着天壤之别。


On the one hand, Arab kings and presidents lack charisma, seem politically impotent and are rarely, if ever, on message with respect to the “big issue” concerns of the peoples of the Middle East.	一方面，阿拉伯国家的国王和总统们缺乏魅力，看起来没有政治能力，而且很少发表中东民众所关心的“国家大事”的言论。


Bin Laden, however, is mesmerizing, framing the perceived frustrations of many Arabs in his use of classical Arabic, including the recitation of medieval-style poetry.	但是，本拉登却很蛊惑人心。 他采用古典阿拉伯语把许多阿拉伯人的怨气表达出来，这包括引用中世纪诗歌。


He deliberately projects an image of himself as a leader who speaks truthfully, conveying a muscular ideology that articulates the sense of humiliation that Muslims feel today and offers a plan of action to remedy the situation.	他有意把自己装扮称为直言的领导人，表达一种阳刚之气。 这些言论具体表达了当今穆斯林所感受到的挫折感并且提出行动纲领来解决这一局面。


Arab culture places a high value on poetic expression, so it is no coincidence that it appears repeatedly in Al Qaeda’s propaganda.	阿拉伯文化极为重视诗歌表达，因此，基地组织的宣传中反复出现诗歌也就并不偶然。


Bin Laden often recites poetry to underscore a point and to associate himself with chivalrous and learned warriors who were willing to become martyrs for Islam’s honor and glory.	本拉登经常引用诗歌来强调某一观点并且把他自己与勇猛善战而又饱学多识的武士联系起来。 这些武士情愿为了伊斯兰的荣耀而成为烈士。


Here are a few lines of the kind of poetry that Al Qaeda uses:	下面是基地组织使用的几行诗词：


I do not sell our honor like a pimp	我不会像皮条客那样出卖荣誉，


that I should lower my eyes, or surrender.	以至于恭卑曲膝或者投降。


I see the army of the Cross in our land,	我看见十字军出现在我们的土地上，


invading Iraq and rubbing our face in the dirt.	入侵伊拉克，让我们受辱。


You who ask me to give up our jihad,	那些让我放弃圣战，


and to live a life of comfort and happiness,	并且过安逸生活的人，


Don’t waste your breath.	请你们不要徒劳了。


I will not give up the jihad while our community	当我们的家园遭到凌辱图害的时候，


is gored with a poisoned knife;	我不会放弃圣战。


No indeed, I will not give up the jihad	十字军发动夜袭，


while their Crosses attack in the dark of night,	污染神圣阿拉伯土地，


Pollute Sacred Arabia, and proclaim	绑起我的双手然后宣布建立所谓安全。


the establishment of “security” while chaining my wrists.	这时候我不会放弃圣战。


It is difficult to know what to make of this literary material, and at times to understand it because of its archaic style, allusions and metaphors.	人们很难从这一文学材料中得出什么结论，而且，由于它采用古旧的文风、暗示以及比喻，因此有时难以理解。


But Al Qaeda’s poetry deserves closer attention, because it is a medium of communication between members of the movement.	但是基地组织的诗词值得更加认真研究，因为这是恐怖运动成员之间的联络媒介。


Indeed, through poetry, Al Qaeda defines what it means to be a member of the movement and commemorates the big episodes in the group’s history by glorifying the exploits of “martyrs.”	实际上，基地组织通过诗词来规定恐怖运动成员的内涵并且通过赞美所谓烈士的功绩来渲染这一恐怖组织历史上的重大事件。


Although much of this poetry is not necessarily of high quality, it nonetheless underscores the image that Al Qaeda’s leadership wishes to project, namely that Al Qaeda’s message is authentic and reflects “real Islam.”	尽管这一诗词未必高明，但是它还是强调了基地组织头领想要建立起来的一种形象，也就是基地组织的论点是可靠的，而且反映了“真正的伊斯兰”。


Moreover, Al Qaeda uses poetry to address the challenges that it faces.	而且，基地组织使用诗词来处理它所面临的挑战。


Contrasting its fighters’ bravery and commitment with the “comfort” of Muslim bystanders, Al Qaeda tries to rally more fighters to its cause in Iraq.	基地组织通过对比其斗士的勇猛和忠诚以及穆斯林旁观者的“养尊处优”来招募更多的战斗人员投入伊拉克的行动之中。


Its dilemma is stark.	其矛盾是明显的。


The Shia of the Mahdi Army defeated Iraq’s Sunnis in the last bout of fighting, and thousands of Iraqi Sunnis, under the so-called Awakening Movement, have rallied to the side of the United States forces and have fought against Al Qaeda.	在最近一次的战斗中，马贺迪军队的什叶派击败了伊拉克的逊尼派武装。 几千名伊拉克逊尼派在所谓的觉醒运动中投靠了美军并且与基地组织作战。


In addition, many Sunni scholars have argued that Al Qaeda’s ideology and tactics are illegitimate, and that Muslims should refrain from jihad and remain obedient to their rulers.	此外，许多逊尼派学者指出，基地组织的意识形态和战术是非法的，而且穆斯林应该回避圣战并且忠于其统治者。


The term for those who have not joined Al Qaeda’s jihad is the “sitters” or the “immobile ones” ( qaaidun ).	那些没有参加基地组织圣战的人叫做“伏窝的母鸡”或者“鼠辈”。


Bin Laden wants these people to feel like sinners.	本拉登想要这些人感觉像是犯罪者一样。


Poetically, he attacks Muslim men’s masculinity and sense of honor for not defending Islam.	他采用诗歌的形式攻击那些不为伊斯兰奋战的穆斯林男子的男子气概和荣誉感。


This is the core of bin Laden’s appeal: the ability to articulate the profound sense of injustice and humiliation that many Arabs and Muslims feel today.	这就是本拉登的感召力所在。 他有能力表达当今许多阿拉伯人穆斯林所感觉到的深刻的不公感和耻辱感。


For all the violence perpetrated by Al Qaeda, bin Laden also relies on “soft” power, using arguments about injustice that resonate with his audience.	对于基地组织所犯下的所有暴力罪行，本拉登还依靠“软”实力，使用不公的论点与其受众产生共鸣。


A path between the extremes of jihad and blind obedience to the Middle East’s authoritarian rulers must be found before Al Qaeda’s message begins to lose some of its luster.	在基地组织的言论失去部分蛊惑力之前，人们必须在圣战极端主义和对中东专制统治者盲从之间找到一条道路。


Britain’s Closet Keynesian	英国的影子凯恩斯主义者


LONDON – There is a growing apprehension among Britain’s financial pundits that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is not nearly as determined to cut public spending as he pretends to be.	伦敦—英国金融专家们日渐担心，财政大臣乔治·奥斯本（George Osborne）并不像表面上那样决定削减公共支出。


He sets himself deadlines to balance the books, but when the date arrives, with the books still unbalanced, he simply sets another.	他为自己制定了平衡预算的时间线，但在到了截止期时，预算仍未达到平衡，而他也只是延长截止期了事。


Consider some fiscal arithmetic.	我们来做一些财政算术。


When Osborne became Chancellor in 2010, the budget deficit – spending minus revenue – was £153 billion ($239 billion), or 10.2% of GDP.	奥斯本2010年出任财政大臣时，预算赤字——即支出减去收入——为1,530亿英镑或GDP的10. 2%。


He promised that by 2015 the deficit would stand at only £37 billion, or 2.1% of GDP – equivalent to balancing current spending and revenue.	他承诺到2015年，赤字将只剩下370亿英镑或GDP的2. 1%——这相当于平衡当前支出和收入。


Instead, the deficit for 2014-2015 is expected to be £97 billion.	但是，如今2014—2015年赤字预计将达到970亿英镑。


The conclusion of Osborne’s balancing act has been postponed until the 2019-2020 budget.	奥斯本平衡预算计划的实现日期已经推迟至2019—2020年。


Osborne talks about the need to cut spending, but his actions say otherwise.	奥斯本大谈削减支出的必要，但他的行为却非如此。


Though he vowed to reduce spending by more than £100 billion by now, he has cut less than half of that, simply extending his five-year rolling program of cuts for another few years.	尽管他曾宣誓要在今年将支出削减1,000亿英镑以上，但实际只削减了不到一半，只是将他的五年期削减计划又延长了几年。


As a result, Osborne, the poster child for British austerity, is starting to look like a closet Keynesian.	结果，身为英国紧缩榜样的奥斯本看上去倒像是个隐含的凯恩斯主义者。


There is a school of thought that holds that commitment, not achievement, gives a policy credibility.	有一个学派认为，承诺，而不是成就，让政策拥有信誉。


For example, the Bank of England is committed to achieve 2% inflation “in the medium term.”	比如，英格兰银行承诺“在中期”实现2%的通胀目标。


Annual inflation has not been 2% at any time in the last six years, but it is possible that the BoE’s commitment has had some effect in lowering interest rates.	而在过去六年里，年通胀率从未达到过2%，但有可能英格兰银行的承诺已经产生了一些降低利率的效果。


Osborne’s defenders might make the same argument for his fiscal policy.	奥斯本的辩护者可以如法炮制为他的财政政策辩护。


A credible policy of fiscal consolidation, they might say, will have the same exhilarating effect on confidence as fiscal consolidation itself.	他们可以这样说，可信的财政整合政策对信心所造成的振奋作用与财政整合本身是一样的。


Economists call this the “signaling effect.”	经济学家称之为“信号效应”。


If you announce that you intend to balance the books over five years and pencil in a lot of spending cuts, consumers, relieved of their fears of future tax increases, will start spending more freely.	如果你宣布你想在五年后平衡预算，并列出各种支出削减项，消费者就会不再担心未来增税，会开始更加自由地花钱。


This will cause national income to rise, and, with luck, the budget deficit will start shrinking, more or less according to plan, without requiring any, or much, retrenchment.	这将让国民收入有所上升，如果幸运的话，预算赤字将或多或少地根据计划开始减少，并且不必要求任何（或较少）节约措施。


In its emphasis on the importance of the signal, economics enters postmodernist territory.	强调信号重要性的经济学从此进入了后现代领域。


The signal – in this case the promise to balance the books – creates the reality.	信号——在这个例子中就是平衡预算承诺——创造现实。


People start behaving as though the books were balanced, ignoring the fact that they are not.	人们开始如同预算平衡时那样行动，忽略预算根本没有平衡的事实。


When one believes the narrative, one acts in ways that make it come true.	当你相信这个故事时，你的行动就会让它成为真事。


In fact, I do not believe that Osborne himself ever attached importance to the signaling effects of his pronouncements.	事实上，我并不认为奥斯本本人在宣布政策时曾考虑到信号效应的重要性。


He really did want to balance the budget by making the spending cuts that he promised.	他真的想通过实施他所承诺的削减支出计划平衡预算。


If he turned out to be more Keynesian than he intended to be, it was for pragmatic reasons.	如果最终他显得比他的初衷更像是凯恩斯主义者，那也是出于现实主义原因。


What free-market ideologues often fail to grasp is that politics eventually makes all policymakers Keynesian to some degree.	自由市场思想常常忽略一点，即政治最终会让一切决策者都沾上点凯恩斯主义风格。


No matter how much a politician advocates short-term pain for long-term benefits, voters will stomach only a certain amount of suffering.	不管政治家如何宣扬为长期利益忍受一些短期痛苦，但选民承受苦难的胃口十分有限。


So sensible politicians slow down the cuts that markets demand, and take loans that they know they will be unable to pay, in order to keep public services going.	因此明智的政客会降低市场所要求的削减的速度，背上他们明知无力偿付的赤字，就是为了维持公共服务运转。


To be sure, Osborne must not be given too much credit for his closet Keynesianism.	平心而论，不能因为奥斯本身为影子凯恩斯主义者而大肆赞扬他。


A true Keynesian would have said that what was needed in 2010 was fiscal expansion, not consolidation.	真正的凯恩斯主义者会说，2010年需要的是财政扩张而不是整合。


Osborne believed, or appeared to believe, that austerity would speed up economic recovery, by restoring confidence in government finance.	奥斯本相信，或者表现出相信紧缩能通过重塑对政府财政的信心加速经济复苏。


But there is a strong case to be made that the cuts that Osborne did make impeded recovery, by removing spending power from an economy already suffering from a deficiency of aggregate demand.	但有强烈的证据表明奥斯本所做的削减支出措施剥夺了一个已经饱受总需求不足困扰的经济体的支出能力，从而阻碍了复苏。


The result was economic stagnation from 2010 to 2013, undermining Osborne’s ability to meet his deficit-reduction targets.	结果是2010—2013年的经济停滞，这又减弱了奥斯本实现其赤字削减目标的能力。


Now that Osborne has once again promised new cuts and a new five-year timetable for balancing the books, the question is whether he will keep his word this time.	如今，奥斯本再次承诺了新的削减措施和新的平衡预算五年时间表，现在的问题是，这一回他能否兑现承诺。


Yes, the British economy has finally started to grow; and, yes, growth is expected to continue.	是的，英国经济最终开始了增长； 是的，增长预计将能持续。