Yet many people will do all they can to game the system, a challenge that each company must confront.	不过肯定有许多人会想尽一切办法去钻系统的空子，而这也是每间公司都要面对的挑战。


Contagion Health, in which I am an investor, uses multi-person game mechanics to turn healthy behavior into status and rewards.	Contagion Health——我是这间公司的投资者之一——利用多人互动机制来把健康行为转化为身份和奖励。


Its initial service, at http://imoveyou.com, allows you to challenge someone else by filling in a form, which is then published on the person’s Facebook wall or on Twitter.	由该公司网站http://imoveyou. com提供的启动服务使你能够挑战其他任何人，你只需填写一张表格就行了，而表格则会在你个人Facebook涂鸦墙或Twitter上公布。


For example, Alice could fill in the blanks: “I will walk three extra miles if @JuanTigar spends 30 minutes on the elliptical machine.”	比如说，爱丽丝可以在表格中这样填写：“如果@胡安·泰加能在椭圆健身机上运动30分钟，我就多走三英里”。


Of course, people use imoveyou for other purposes – everything from challenging a roommate to make his bed to encouraging a colleague to beat a sales record.	当然，人们也会出于其他目的来使用这个网站——包括从挑战室友整理床铺到鼓励同事突破销��记录等等。


So much the better. Getting people engaged in general is healthy, too – though the corporations and health providers that sponsor subscriptions will probably put some restrictions on subject matter.	如果能这样当然更好，促使人们积极参加日常事务也是有利于健康的——尽管那些提供赞助的公司或保健服务商很可能对这类项目有所限制。


Then there’s HealthRally, which uses insights from behavioral economics to motivate people to achieve their own health and wellness goals.	此外还有间叫HealthRally的公司，该公司利用行为经济学的理念来激励人们实现自身的健康和保健目标。


The basic insight is that owing something to your friends is a far more powerful incentive than getting something for yourself.	其基本理念就是对朋友的亏欠比为自身的牟利具有更强大的激励作用。


The user signs up and recruits friends and family to sponsor a reward of their choice for a specified goal.	用户注册并邀请其朋友家人加入活动，他的朋友和家人要选定一个具体目标并在目标实现后提供奖励。


(We can imagine a wish-list revenue opportunity here, where vendors can offer specific motivational products or services.)	（这里我们可以设想有一份愿望清单，这份清单给与了赞助商提供某些特定激励服务或产品以获利的机会。


From then on, the sponsors have an implicit right to check on the user’s progress, offering support or criticism far more compelling than any stranger could.	）此后，赞助商有默认的权利去检查用户的进度，并较一般陌生人更为令人信服地提供某些支持或批评意见。


It’s relatively easy to fail on your own, but if your friends have put up real money, it’s much harder.	在这个过程中，单纯依靠自律是很容易失败的，但如果你的朋友已经为此付费了，那你就不能轻言放弃了。


While the service is currently designed for individuals, companies could also use HealthRally to enhance their corporate wellness programs.	尽管这种服务目前还只是针对个人，但许多公司也可以借助HealthRally公司来改善自身的健康福利项目。


By providing matching financial rewards, for example, a company could leverage its employees’ natural support networks and provide a valuable boost to the pot.	比如说，通过提供相应的经济回报，公司可以借助员工之间的社交网络并为员工的退休金增值。


All three of these companies let us use our own quirks and psychology to motivate ourselves.	以上三间公司都旨在让我们利用自身的特性和心理来激励自己。


Over time, MedRewards, Contagion Health, HealthRally, and others will have to prove their worth with data.	日积月累之下，MedRewards, Contagion Health， HealthRally以及其他公司会用数据来证明自己的价值。


If people who use their services actually stay healthy, work harder, and cost less, the evidence will be hard to ignore.	如果使用了这些服务的人们能保持健康，工作更积极，并节省更多的医疗开支，那么效果将是难以忽视的。


And people who might not have adopted these tools on their own will be encouraged to do so by others with evidence and incentives on their side.	而那些未体验过这些服务的人们将在先期尝试者的良好效果鼓励下加入到这一行列中去。


Disclosure: I am an investor in Contagion Health, and am considering investments in MedRewards and HealthRally.	信息披露：本人是Contagion Health公司的投资者之一，并正在考虑投资MedRewards 和 HealthRally这两间公司.


Health Food Truths	Health Food Truths


“Low-carbohydrate” pasta is in a category of health foods known in the trade as “lesser evils” – foods with fewer unwanted calories, fat, trans fat, sugars, salt, or carbohydrates.	“低碳水化合物”的意大利面是健康食品的一种，这在业内被称作“较小的恶”—含有较少的热量、脂肪、反式脂肪、糖、盐或碳水化合物。


There is now a whole industry of such products, as well as health foods classified as “natural,” “organic,” and “functional.”	这种食品及那些被归类为“天然”、“有机”和“功能性”的食品现在已成为了一个完整的产业。


But are these foods really better for you?	但它们真的更有利于你的健康么？


In the United States, “organic” has a precise meaning established by the US Department of Agriculture.	在美国，“有机”是由农业部赋予了确切的定义。


“Natural,” however, means whatever the food producer or manufacturer says it means.	然而，“天然”则是食品生产商或制造商们自己的说法。


So-called “functional” foods – or “techno-foods” – are those to which manufacturers add omega-3 oils, artificial sweeteners, indigestible starches, cholesterol reducers, soy or milk (whey) proteins, phytochemicals, and other ingredients to enable them to take advantage of “qualified” health claims permitted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).	所谓的“功能性食品”—或“技术性食品”—则是那些由生产商加入了omega-3脂肪酸、人工甜味剂、抗性淀粉（indigestible starches）、降胆固醇剂、大豆或奶（麦）蛋白、植化素（phytochemicals）和其他成分从而能够充分发挥美国食品与药物管理局（FDA）所允许的“合格”健益特性。


Sales of lesser-evil and functional foods have done well in recent years, bringing in about $85 billion in US sales in 2004.	近年来，“较小恶”和功能性食品的销售一片风光，2004年在美国的销售额达到了850亿美元。


If you routinely buy such foods, you are among LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) consumers – the health food industry’s cherished demographic base.	如果你经常性地购买这类食品，你就是“乐活族”消费者—健康食品业最为珍视的顾客群体。


You buy low-carbohydrate products, energy and nutrition bars, vitamin- and mineral-fortified foods and beverages, soy foods, and practically anything with a health claim.	你购买低碳水化合物产品、能量和营养条、强化维他命和矿物质的食品和饮料、大豆食品和几乎任何具有健益特点的食品。


Like many people, I thought that small, innovative companies dominated functional foods.	和许多人一样，我以为小型、创新性的公司主导着功能性食品的市场。


In fact, PepsiCo holds a 25% share of the market with products like Quaker cereals and fortified Tropicana juices, which qualify for FDA-approved health claims.	而实际上，百事公司以其诸如贵格麦片和强化成分的Tropicana果汁等符合FDA健益要求的产品占据了该市场25%的份额。


Coca-Cola, General Mills, Kellogg, Kraft, Nestlé, and Groupe Danone all have market shares ranging from 4% to 7%.	可口可乐、General Mills、Kellogg、卡夫、雀巢和达能也都占有该市场4%-7%不等的份额。


These companies’ control of this market makes sense if you think about what they are selling.	如果你想想它们销售的食品，那么这些公司对这一市场的掌控就是情理之中的。


The most popular functional foods are soft drinks, sports drinks, breakfast cereals, snacks, energy bars, and juice drinks.	最受欢迎的功能性食品是软饮料、运动饮料、快餐麦片、小食品、能量条和果汁类。


About three-quarters of breakfast cereals make health claims for the whole grain or fiber that has been added to make them “functional.”	四分之三的早餐麦片都因为添加了全麦或纤维成份而具有“功能性”从而自我标榜为健康食品。


Moreover, as Nancy Childs, a business school professor, wrote in  Nutrition Business Journal in 2004, functional foods for obesity, for example, promise their manufacturers “a double reward”: eligibility for qualified health claims and possible reimbursement under Medicare as a disease treatment.	另外，正如Nancy Childs，一位商学院教授在2004年的《营养业学报》上撰文所述，针对肥胖的功能性食品就能给生产商带来“双重回报”：既获得了健益的资格，又可能以疾病治疗的功用而被纳入医疗保险报销的范畴。


They also provide “balance to food company product portfolios, thereby limiting corporate liability on both legal and stock valuation fronts” – a reference to potential claims against companies that their products might cause obesity or poor health.	它们还能够“平衡食品公司的产品组合，从而限制公司在法律和股值方面的责任”—这主要是针对由于公司产品可能导致肥胖或危害健康而引发潜在的法律诉讼而言的。


But many of these products are basically sugar water or sugary foods that might as well be cookies, with ingredients added or removed to appeal to LOHAS customers who would otherwise not buy them.	但许多这样的产品也不外乎就是糖水或甜食，只不过是添加或去掉了某些成分以博得“乐活族”消费者的青睐。 一家私营的检测实验室，ConsumerLab.


A private testing laboratory, ConsumerLab.com, found that hardly any of the “vitamin waters” it tested contained what their labels said they did, and some had only 20% to 50% of the amounts of nutrients listed.	com发现其检测的“维他命饮品”的营养成分几乎都达不到其标贴上所示的水平，有的产品的营养物质实际含量只有其标榜的20%-50%。


Likewise, half the fat in most power and energy bars – which bring in $2 billion in annual sales – is saturated and some is trans.	同样，在能量条（年销售额达到20亿美元）中，一半的脂肪都是饱和脂肪，还有一些是反式脂肪。


Many bars targeted to low-carbohydrate dieters have misleading “net carb” calculations.	许多针对低碳水化合物食用者的能量条在“碳水化合物净含量”的计算上进行误导。


Some do not disclose their content of sugar alcohols, and some have so much of these additives that they are almost certain to produce laxative effects or gas.	有的产品不披露其含糖酒精成分，而有的产品的这类添加剂含量如此之高，几乎肯定会带来腹泻和胀气的副作用。


Others are so highly fortified with vitamin A or D that ConsumerLab advises against giving them to young children.	而有的食品的强化维他命A和D的含量也是高得离谱，以至于ConsumerLab建议不能将它们给儿童食用。


Even if I had not seen these results and warnings, I wouldn’t eat power and energy bars, which, according to the magazine  Consumer Reports , taste “gritty, chalky, or chemical.”	就算是我没有看到过这些检测结果和警告，我也不会吃能量条。 据《消费者报告》杂志称，它们吃起来“味同嚼蜡，要不就是一股化学味”。


I agree.	我同意。


When I ask friends and colleagues why they buy the bars, they say: “Because I know they are healthy and I don’t care how they taste.”	当我问朋友和同事为什么要买这样的食品时，他们说：“因为我知道它们是健康的，所以就不在乎口感如何。


Well, I do.	”可我在乎。


I can’t see the point of eating indigestible vitamin-and-fiber supplemented carbohydrates flavored with artificial sweeteners. If I think I need more vitamins, I prefer to take a multivitamin supplement.	我不明白食用难以消化的、加入了人工甜味剂的、强化了维他命和纤维素的碳水化合物有什么意义。


If I need a hundred or so calories in a hurry, I prefer a banana, a handful of nuts, or, for that matter, a delicious candy bar.	如果我需要快速补充100卡路里左右的热量，我宁愿吃一根香蕉、一把坚果或者就是一支普通的巧克力棒。


This is not to diminish the value of some of the lesser evils – low-fat milk and yogurt, for example.	这不是要诋毁有些“较小恶食品”的价值—如低脂牛奶和酸奶。


But most foods posing as “health food” raise the same question as vitamin-supplemented candy: does adding vitamins really make a food better for you?	但大多数标榜为“健康食品”的食品也向我们提出了和强化维他命的糖果一样的问题：添加了维他命的食品真地更有益健康么？


Real health foods do not need to be made functional to be good for you. They are functional just the way they are.	真正的健康食品不用经过人为加工获得功能性，它们本来就具备功能性。


The Developing World’s Health Innovators	发展中世界的健康创新者


DHAKA – We live in an age of tragic health paradoxes.	达卡——我们生活的时代面临着悲剧性的健康悖论。


Mass immunization campaigns have eliminated entire diseases, but children in countries like Haiti and Bangladesh continue to die of easily treatable diseases caused by common pathogens.	大规模免疫运动已经将某些疾病彻底消除，但海地和孟加拉等国的儿童却仍然死于由常见病原体引发的原本容易治疗的疾病。


Globalization has lifted millions of people out of extreme poverty, but has left them exposed to the non-communicable diseases of the post-industrial age – from diabetes to heart disease – in countries that lack the resources to treat them.	全球化已使数百万人摆脱极端贫困，但这些人却面临着后工业时代从糖尿病到心脏病等非传染性疾病的威胁——因为他们所生活的国家缺乏资源治疗这些疾病。


Underlying these paradoxes is yet another: the vast majority of health research is conducted in wealthy economies, but the vast majority of the global public-health burden falls on low- and middle-income countries.	在上述悖论之后还隐藏着另外一个悖论：即绝大多数卫生研究主体是富裕国家，但中低收入国家才是绝大部分全球公共卫生负担的承受者。


There is something grossly inefficient – even immoral – about this allocation of resources, which undermines the development of health solutions for those who need them most.	这样的资源分配方式严重低效甚至违反道德，对需求最迫切民众的医疗方案研究起到了破坏作用。


To be sure, it was possible to address the first generation of global development problems with straightforward transfers of capital and solutions from rich to poor countries.	可以肯定，靠从富国到穷国的直接资本和方案转移解决第一代全球发展问题是可能的。


Examples include programs to boost primary-school enrollment and, in public health, mass immunization campaigns.	这样的例子包括小学入学促进计划，以及公共卫生领域的大规模免疫运动。


But the new generation of development problems, from the quality of education to child deaths from treatable diseases, will not be so easy to resolve.	但新一代发展问题，从教育质量到导致儿童死亡的可治疗性疾病，不会那么容易得到解决。


They demand long-term capacity building and knowledge transfers from rich to poor countries, with the latter gaining far more agency in developing solutions.	它们需要长期能力建设和从富国到穷国的知识转让，后者必须在方案研发中取得更大的发言权。


In other words, the focus of global public-health strategies and investments should shift toward reducing the structural disparities between rich and poor countries, in terms of their capacity for medical research and public-health implementation.	换言之，全球公共卫生战略和投资应以缩小富国和穷国间医学研究和公共卫生执行力的结构性差距为转型目标。


This mission – which, I would argue, should be the main goal of global public-health efforts today – would entail a central role for institutions like the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (icddr,b), based in Dhaka, Bangladesh, where I work as a scientist.	我认为，这才应当是今天全球公共卫生工作的主要目标——而且需要像我所在机构孟加拉达卡国际腹泻研究中心（icddr，b）这样的机构发挥核心作用。


As it stands, most global public-health activities involve researchers from advanced countries leading local teams in developing countries.	从目前的情况看，绝大多数全球健康活动涉及由发达国家研究人员领导发展中国家当地团队。


While this is better than imposing ready-made solutions on the developing world, as occurred during the Cold War, it is not good enough.	虽然这比冷战时期将已经做好的现成方案强加给发展中国家要进了一步，但还存在着巨大的改善空间。


Medical research and policy implementation in the developing world must be led by researchers and specialists from low- and middle-income countries – people who can combine cutting-edge scientific expertise with an intimate understanding of local contexts.	发展中国家的医学研究和政策实施必须由中低收入国家的科研人员和专家自己领导——这些人可以做到把尖端科学知识和对当地情况的深入了解相结合。


The value of developing-country-led innovation has been demonstrated time and again.	发展中国家领导创新的价值已经被反复证明过。


Over the last 15 years, scientific innovations spearheaded by developing countries contributed significantly to progress on the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), particularly those related to global health.	过去十五年来，由发展中国家带头的科学创新为联合国千年发展目标（MDGs）作出过重大贡献，尤其是在与全球卫生相关的领域之中。


The contributions of icddr,b alone are enough to prove the value of developing-country health innovation.	仅达卡国际腹泻疾病研究中心一家的贡献就足以证明发展中国家医疗创新的价值。


The institute’s researchers carry out innovative and complex science, from classic clinical trials and epidemiological studies to behavioral-modification trials aimed at reducing the spread of infectious disease – with remarkable results.	该研究所的科研人员一直在进行创新和复杂的科学研究，从近年的临床试验到旨在减少传染病传播的行为改变试验等流行病学研究——并且在相关领域取得了丰硕的成果。


An iconic example of icddr,b’s work is oral rehydration solution (ORS), a simple balanced solution of sugar and salt administered orally to people suffering from diarrheal diseases like cholera.	口服补水液（ORS）是达卡国际腹泻疾病研究中心一项标志性的成果，这是一种非常简单的糖盐混合液，可供患霍乱等腹泻疾病的患者用于口服。


That solution, which icddr,b played a central role in developing, has prevented an estimated 40 million deaths globally since the 1960s, and has been called one of the most important medical inventions of the twentieth century.	这种以达卡国际腹泻疾病研究中心为主研发的口服溶液从二十世纪六十年代以来挽救了世界各地约4，000万人的生命，并被称为二十世纪一项最重要的医疗发明。


More recently, my team and I developed a new low-cost system for delivering “bubble CPAP” (continuous positive airway pressure), which keeps air flowing during the process of treating severe pneumonia.	最近，我和我的团队研发了一套全新低成本“气泡持续正压通气”系统，即在治疗重症肺炎的过程中保持空气持续流动。


Trevor Duke, Director of the Centre for International Child Health at the Royal Children’s Hospital at the University of Melbourne, also participated in the project.	墨尔本大学、皇家儿童医院、国际儿童健康中心主任杜克同样参与了该项目的研究。


Our version of bubble CPAP, which uses cheap and readily available materials like plastic tubing and shampoo bottles, proved in trials to be more effective than the standard low-flow oxygen therapy recommended by the World Health Organization.	我们这款气泡持续正压通气系统利用塑料管和洗发水瓶等廉价和随处可见的材料，事实证明在临床试验中比世界卫生组织推荐的标准低流量氧疗有效度更高。


Following the trial, the Dhaka Hospital of icddr,b implemented the new low-cost bubble CPAP, instead of the WHO-recommended therapy, as part of standard treatment of children with pneumonia.	试验结束后，达卡国际腹泻疾病研究中心附属医院实际运用新低成本气泡持续正压通气技术替代世卫组织推荐疗法，对患有肺炎的儿童进行标准治疗。


Since then, the death rate for bubble CPAP-treated patients has fallen from 21% to just 6%.	从那以后，气泡持续正压通气技术治疗患者的死亡率已经从21%下降到仅6%。


These remarkable successes stem from the fact that icddr,b researchers – most of them Bangladeshis who trained abroad – are well acquainted with the problems they are trying to address.	如此令人振奋的成功来源于达卡国际腹泻疾病研究中心的研究人员——其中多数是在国外受过培训的孟加拉人——非常熟悉他们所要解决的问题。


They understand what it means to face severe – and, to some extent, insurmountable – resource constraints.	他们明白面对严峻——甚至在某种程度上无法逾越的资源限制究竟意味着什么。


The 15-year MDG experience made clear the indisputable potential of developing-country innovation to advance public health.	千年发展目标积累的十五年经验明确显示发展中国家促进公共医疗的潜力无可辩驳。


Fortunately, world leaders seem to have taken that lesson to heart: the Sustainable Development Goals – the ambitious post-2015 development agenda adopted at the UN last September – are premised on the idea of local ownership.	幸运的是，世界领导人似乎已经记取了这个教训：可持续发展目标——去年9月联合国通过的雄心勃勃的后2015年发展计划——是以地方所有权的理念为前提的。


But, despite vocal support for locally led research and development, severe constraints to developing-country innovation remain – and must urgently be removed.	但尽管很多人嘴上支持由当地来领导研究和开发，但发展中国家创新所面临的限制依然非常严重——而且必须立即消除。


Unsurprisingly, the tightest constraint is the lack of resources, both human and financial.	不出所料，资源匮乏成为其中最严峻的限制，包括人员和资金两方面的匮乏。


To ease it, developed and developing countries must now work together to ensure adequate investment to support local efforts reliably and sustainably.	为缓解这种状况，发达国家和发展中国家必须共同努力，确保投入充足资金可靠而持续地支持当地的研发工作。


With adequate support from local and international financing mechanisms, more innovation hubs like icddr,b could emerge and flourish in poor countries.	在地方和国际融资机制的充分支持下，更多像达卡国际腹泻研究中心这样的创新枢纽可能会在贫困国家逐步兴起和繁荣。


By advancing knowledge sharing and technology transfer, these hubs would enhance cooperation among developing countries, and help us finally overcome the persistent and tragic disparities that plague global health.	通过推进知识共享和技术转让，这些枢纽可以加强发展中国家之间的合作，协助我们最终将困扰全球卫生领域的持续悲剧性差距克服掉。


Health innovations developed in the world’s poor countries have passed the test of scalability and applicability in the places that need them most.	世界贫困国家开发的医疗创新已经在最需要它们的地方通过了扩展性和适用性测试。


With the majority of the world’s population living in resource-challenged settings, we must recognize – and invest in – the efforts of those who are pushing the frontiers of medical science in the developing world.	因为世界绝大多数人口生活的环境资源有限，我们必须认可——并投资于——那些正在拓展发展中世界医学前沿的科研人员所做的工作。


Healthy People, Healthy Cities, Healthy Economies	健康市民，健康城市，健康经济 佩德罗·马兰


OXFORD – The forces that drove the growth of European and North American cities in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries are now driving urbanization in Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and other emerging-market countries.	曾经带动十九世纪和二十世纪欧洲和北美城市经济增长的因素如今正在推动巴西，中国，印度，墨西哥，俄罗斯和其他新兴市场国家的城市化进程。


Because the growth of these cities has been accelerated and magnified by productive technologies, rapid internal migration, and high net reproduction rates, many have reached unprecedented sizes at breathless speed.	由于生产技术先进，内部整合迅速，净生产率高，这些国家的城市发展迅猛，急剧膨胀，而今许多城市都已达到空前规模，经济发展“气喘吁吁”。


Indeed, all but three of the world’s 20 largest cities are in emerging markets.	事实上，全球最大的二十个城市中有三个都出现在这些新兴市场国家。


Many forecasts suggest that by 2030, the four largest emerging-market economies will have overtaken the G-7 in combined size, and that by 2050, today’s emerging-market economies will represent more than half the global economy and an even larger share of the world’s population.	很多预测表明，到2030年，四个最大的新兴市场经济体整体实力将超过G – 7； 到2050年，这些新兴市场经济经济份额将占据全球经济的一半以上，人口所占的比重将更大。


These forecasts all assume that economic growth will be generated in cities.	这些预测都假定城市发展不会停滞不前。


But will emerging-market cities be healthy enough to drive rapid economic growth?	但新兴市场城市医疗健康状况是否足以推动经济快速增长？


The issues that preoccupy health policymakers and practitioners in Lima, Cairo, Kolkata, and Jakarta reflect contrasting climates, geographies, histories, and cultures.	由于气候，地理，历史和文化迥异，这一问题一直困扰着利马，开罗，加尔各答等地的决策者和从业人员。


Each city is ultimately a special case. But they share some generic features.	每个城市最终都是一个特例，但这些城市都有一些共同特征。


But the urban poor, faced with bad housing, limited infrastructure, and meager services, are vulnerable to epidemics, malnutrition-based childhood diseases, HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and mental disorders. They are also likely to be hardest hit by natural disasters, such as the floods and mudslides that devastated parts of Rio de Janeiro in January.	第一个特征是，城市的疾病负担正在经历从传染性疾病到“历时性疾病”—所谓的“富裕病”—的转变， 但由于住房条件恶劣，基础设施落后，医疗服务欠缺，城市里的贫困人口对传染病，营养不良引发的儿童疾病，艾滋病，疟疾，肺结核，精神疾病等抵抗性很差，而且极易受严重自然灾害的冲击，例如今年一月份里约热内卢的洪水和泥石流灾害导致许多人流离失所。


A second generic feature of emerging-market cities is that dense concentrations of poverty help create fragile environments that spawn civil disorders, resulting in death and injuries.	第二个特征是，城市贫困人口集中地区环境脆弱，动荡不安，极易引发动乱，造成人员伤亡。


But a recent symposium at Oxford University concluded that emerging-market cities could improve and maintain urban health by capturing the inherent advantages of concentration, coordinating health policies and programs, adopting successful innovations, reforming health education and training, and developing improved planning processes.	但牛津大学最近的研讨会上却得出结论说，新兴市场城市可以采取措施改善和维持城市健康状况，这些措施包括充分利用人口集中的先天优势，协调卫生政策和方案，采纳成功的创新体系，改革医疗教育和培训，继续推进城市规划进程。


Indeed, many potential solutions stem from opportunities for innovation created by the physical concentration of people and economic activity.	事实上，许多潜在的解决方案源于人口集中和经济活动创造的创新机遇。


It is invariably more efficient to build and maintain health-related infrastructure, such as water supply and sanitation systems, clinics, and hospitals, and deliver specialized health care, where population densities are highest – and to create affordable-care networks of community health workers using low-cost technology. It is invariably easier to capture economies of scale and operation in public-health programs where those economies are greatest.	在人口密集分布区建立和维护与健康有关的基础设施，如完善供水系统和卫生体系，建立诊所和医院，提供专业的医疗保健服务，并使用低成本的技术建立社区卫生工作者负担得起的医疗保健网络体系，这些做法都非常有效。


Moreover, while the health of urban populations is directly or indirectly affected by actions taken (or not taken) in almost every branch of government, few emerging markets have acted to improve horizontal coordination within national or city administrations. Fewer still have addressed the need for vertical coordination betweennational and city governments.	此外，虽然几乎每一个政府部门采取（或不采取）的行动都会直接或间接影响城市人群的健康状况，但是这些新兴市场国家却很少采取行动来改善国家或城市管理部门之间的横向协调，而已经解决了国家和城市政府之间纵向协调这一问题的国家更是寥寥无几。


Tailored solutions are required – what works in one city might not work in others – but, because problems arising from weak or absent coordination are widespread, emerging markets should consider governance models that vest accountability for urban health outcomes – together with the authority to shape them – in city governments.	解决方案需要量身定制，因为每个城市的发展状况不同 ，但是由于缺乏协调或协调能力差而所产生的问题已经普遍存在，因而新兴市场国家必须考虑改变治理模式，使城市医疗体系的成果与政府权威相挂钩，城市政府必须承担相应责任。


But such innovation does not always begin at home, which is why city governments need to know about potentially applicable ideas and lessons from other cities and countries.	但是，这种创新并不一定总是从国内开始，这就是为什么城市政府要学习其他城市和国家的经验教训并借鉴可能对他们有用的想法的原因。


Unfortunately, the diffusion and dissemination of innovative ideas in the fields of public health and health care is generally a random, haphazard, and inefficient process.	但不幸的是，在公共健康和卫生保健领域，创新理念的扩散和传播这一过程通常无规律可循，杂乱无章，效率低下。


So emerging markets should collaborate to develop health-knowledge networks aimed at facilitating mutual learning.	因此，新兴市场应携手合作，共建健康知识网络，以促进相互学习。


There is also an urgent need to address the fact that public health and medical education in emerging markets is rarely integrated.	此外，新兴国家公众健康和医学教育脱节的问题亟待解决。


Having received different training and developed different mindsets, public-health officers and medical doctors (and their subordinates) often operate in silo-like environments – to the detriment of the people they serve.	由于接受的培训不同，形成的心态也各异，公共卫生人员和医生（及其下属）经常在类似于筒仓的环境下工作，而这对他们所要服务的人群会有害。


Moreover, there are few opportunities for doctors to specialize in urban health.	此外，医生专门从事城市保健工作的机会少之又少。


To overcome this challenge, emerging-market governments should consider radical reforms in education and training in urban public health and health care.	为了克服这一挑战，新兴市场国家政府应考虑在城市公共健康和卫生保健教育和培训方面进行激进改革。


Urban growth in emerging-market countries – and the corresponding concentration of poverty – has challenged and sometimes overwhelmed the capacity of their governments to provide sustainable and affordable housing, water supply and sanitation, solid-waste management services, and education – all of which directly affect urban health – as well as basic health-care services.	新兴市场国家的城市发展问题 及与之相对的贫困人口集中问题也给政府的执政能力提出了挑战，甚至是超出了他们的能力范围— 提供经济适用住房，提供供水和卫生服务，固体废物监管服务和教育服务，所有这些都直接影响城市健康以及基本卫生保健服务。


To address these issues emerging-market cities should practice anticipatory planning, based on realistic demographic forecasts; develop city and nationwide patient registers and health-information systems; and seek to integrate health and health-care planning with overall city planning.	为了解决这些问题，新兴市场城市应实行可预见的规划，以现实人口评估为基础，发展城市和全国性的病人注册和卫生信息系统，并谋求医疗和卫生保健规划与城市总体规划的融合。


If cities are to drive emerging-market countries towards a better future, their governments must ensure that urban housing, infrastructure, and services stay abreast of demand.	要让城市为新兴市场国家创造美好未来，政府必须确保城市住房，基础设施和服务紧跟需求的步伐。


After all, an investment-friendly business environment requires adults who are fit to work and children who are fit to learn.	毕竟，“投资友好型”的经济环境需要称职的成年人和合格的孩子。


Ultimately, the economic health of emerging-market countries will depend on the reinvention of urban public health.	归根结底，新兴市场国家经济的健康状况最终将取决于城市公共健康体系改造。


Heal Thyself Online	在网上照顾自己的身体


NEW YORK – An interesting phenomenon is happening to health care in the United States, quite apart from all the noise about changes to the country’s system of health insurance: individuals are starting to take charge of their own health and trying to avoid needing care in the first place.	发自纽约——在美国的医疗卫生领域正涌现出一个非常有趣，却又跟国家医疗保险制度变革所产生的争议无关的现象：民众正逐步开始掌握自己的健康状况并尝试避免在第一时间使用医疗服务。


Just as people long ago moved from institutional, mainframe computers to personal computers, they are starting to make the same move from institutional to individual tools with their health – not for treating serious diseases such as cancer, to be sure, but for everyday monitoring and prevention.	正如人们过去从大型公共计算机转投个人电脑那样，如今他们也正在从大型公众医疗机构中抽出身来，转而使用个人医疗工具——当然不是为了治疗癌症这类严重疾病，而是在个人日常健康监测和疾病预防方面。


A variety of trends are coming together to make this happen.	这个现象是由几股不同的潮流汇聚而成的。


First, it is becoming apparent that many health problems are self-induced: too much unhealthy food and drink, too much smoking, too little sleep or exercise.	首先，大家都明白许多健康问题都是自身造成的：吃太多不健康的食物，抽太多烟，睡眠过少或者缺乏运动。


There is nothing new about that insight, but now it is easier to keep track of personal behavior.	这个观点本身没有啥新意，只是如今我们在跟踪个人习惯方面变得更加得心应手了。


Just as we can use financial software to manage our money, we can now use a variety of software tools to monitor our own behavior and bodily statistics.	正如用财务软件去理财一样，我们也可以使用各类软件去监控自身的行为习惯以及健康数据。


Many of these tools are things people first designed for themselves.	许多这类工具本来都是发明人为自己设计的。 比如J.


For example, J.J. Allaire founded the weight-loss Lose It! iPhone app for himself and has gone from 195 to 170 pounds (88 to 77 kilos) and gained some 4.5 million users in the process.	阿莱尔就设计了一个名叫“Loss It! ”的iPhone减肥组件，不但使自己成功从195磅减到170磅（88公斤到77公斤），还在减肥过程中赢得了450万用户。


Like the founders of the Homebrew Computer Club, a seminal group of Berkeley computer geeks who got together in the 1980’s, many started by rigging up gadgets and later realized that they had come across a commercial opportunity.	正如那个由加州大学伯克莱分校一帮电脑迷在1980年代组建的“家庭电脑组装俱乐部”一样，当时很多人都是从组装小元件起家，最后意识到一个巨大的商业机会已经降临到自己头上。


Many of these new “homebrew health” people meet at so-called Quantified Self Meetups, where some people demonstrate their software and others come to learn or compare data with others.	而许多新涌现的“自制健康软件”人才都会在所谓的“健康测量小组”里碰头，一些人会展示自己设计的软件，而其他人则前来取经，或者和别人的软件相比较。


The tools they use include everything from pedometers/accelerometers that monitor footsteps and motion (from Nike, FitBit and others) to sleep monitors (MyZeo), pulse and heart monitors, and glucose monitors (mostly for diabetics). People also count and calculate their food consumption.	这些小工具涵盖了几乎所有健康门类，从监测行走过程和动作的步数计/加速计（由Nike, FitBit等工具提供），到睡眠质量监测（MyZeo），脉搏和心跳监测，以及血糖仪（主要针对糖尿病患者）。


Just as you can use your computer to manage your finances according to a budget, so can you use it to manage your body.	就像你可以在设定预算的前提下用电脑理财那样，你也可以用电脑来管理自己的身体。


The hope is that the data may help you to modify your behavior in the right direction.	这些软件的目的则是试图用数据来帮助你改变自己的行为，使其向好的方向发展。


In my own case, I behave pretty well already: I swim for 50 minutes a day, I floss regularly, I eat sensibly, and so forth.	就我个人来说，我本来就已经保持得不错的了：每天游泳50分钟，经常用牙线清洁牙齿，合理控制自己的饮食……但现在我也开始用MyZeo监测自己的睡眠（我睡得很好！


But now that I use the MyZeo sleep monitor (I sleep fine!), I have noticed a marginal change in my own behavior when I am out at night.	），而且也留意到了自己在夜晚外出活动时所发生的微小变化。


Sometimes, I am more motivated to leave early, anticipating extra sleep points in the morning!	有时我会有意识地提前离场，只希望能在早上醒来时看到MyZeo显示更高的睡眠指数！


It is a small thing, but the kind of change that adds up over time.	这虽然是小事，但日积月累，必有所成。


Potentially even more effective are social tools, using so-called “game dynamics.”	而如果能利用“游戏驱动力”来把这些工具变成一种社交性工具的话，那么将更加有效。


That is, just as you can earn points by collaborating with others in video games like World of Warcraft, so can you earn points by competing or collaborating with your friends in healthy behavior.	正如你可以通过在像“魔兽世界”这类游戏中与别人合作获取点数，你也可以在健康习惯方面和你的朋友展开竞争或者合作来获取点数。


These are services that make health into a serious game where others can reinforce your willpower.	这些服务可以把保持健康转变成一场严肃的游戏，进而通过旁人来提高你坚持下去的意志力。


Imagine a health club that does not threaten you, but rather sends a message: “Juan and Alice will be waiting for you to join them lifting weights today at 4 p.m.”	试想有这么一个健康俱乐部，它从不用那些不健康的后果恐吓你，而是传达这样一种信息：“胡安和爱丽丝会在今天下午4点等你来参加体重提升训练”或者是“你的团队目前正落后蓝队4分，赶紧来助我们一臂之力。


Or “Your team is only four points behind the Blue team.	”而另外一个我计划注资的服务则是www.


Please come and help us win.”	GetUpandMove.


An existing service in which I plan to invest, www.GetUpandMove.me, allows you to challenge a friend: “I will swim for 50 minutes if Alice runs around the block four times.”	me网站，这个网站让你可以向一个朋友发出挑战：“如果爱丽丝能绕着街区跑四圈的话我就游泳50分钟。


The challenge is posted on Facebook or Twitter, ideally soliciting encouragement from your friends.	”这个挑战将被贴在Facebook或Twitter上，从而为你赢得朋友们的鼓励。


Right now, this market is incoherent, much like the early days of the personal computer.	当然，这个市场尚未完全成形，就跟早期的个人电脑一样。


The different applications do not talk to one another; it is difficult to match your exercise against your sleeping patterns, or to share data with other people.	不同的应用软件之间无法同步； 很难把一个人的锻炼和睡眠模式统一起来，或者和其他人分享数据。


But that is the excitement: there are many companies at early stages, all looking for money and partners.	然而这也是令人惊喜的地方：有很多公司都处于起步阶段，他们全都在努力寻找投资或者合作伙伴。


Not all of them will survive; with luck, some of them may merge.	有些企业会倒闭；


Those with great technology and lousy marketing will find others with lousy technology and great marketing.	如果好运的话，有些公司会合并，比如那手握高端技术但不会做市场的公司会找到一些懂市场却不懂技术的公司。


The companies with back-end standards will create interfaces to a couple of the leading applications; then other applications will tie themselves into those back-ends.	那些掌握着后端标准的公司将为几个领先软件设定某些数据接口规则； 然后其它软件则会将自己和这些后端标准捆绑起来。


How will all this be paid for?	那么如何为这些服务付费呢？


In the beginning, early adopters will pay for most of these tools and services directly; others will be sponsored by advertisers.	在初始阶段，早期使用者会直接为大多数软件和服务付费； 其它的则由广告商提供赞助。


It would be good to believe that they will be effective, but so far we have little proof.	虽然乐观地认为这些软件都会最终变得高效实用，但目前我们现在还拿不出什么证据来证明这一点。


A vendor’s testimonial that nine out of 10, or 99 out of 100, customers are satisfied with the results will hardly be convincing, because those who fail to improve will have less interest in participating.	一个服务提供商即便是声称90%或99%的顾客都对服务结果满意，也可能没多大说服力，因为那些对服务结果感到不满意的人往往都是回避调查的。


More convincing will be data shared by individuals and collected (with permission) by third parties.	而更可信的则是由人们互相分享或者由第三方机构搜集的数据。


At some point, employers, who are interested in healthy, motivated employees and lower health costs (but demand a lower level of proof than insurance companies and governments), are likely to come in, based on these informal data-collection efforts and their own pilot programs.	在某些方面，那些有志于员工健康，激励员工或者降低公司医疗费用（但比保险公司和政府对软件使用效果证明的要求更低）的雇主可能会基于这些非正式的数据搜集以及公司自身的指导计划而采用这些服务。


That will lead to more data being collected, and eventually there may be enough to convince insurance companies and governments to pay as well.	这将使更多的数据被搜集起来，最后将会有足够数据去说服保险公司和政府也来为服务付费。


One part of me resists that: good health should be something that people do for themselves.	虽然我也知道：健康是每个人的私事。


But the realist in me knows otherwise about what can help good behavior spread.	但另一方面我也明白有些东西是有助于让好习惯扩散开来的。


As a taxpayer, I would rather pay to foster other people’s good behavior than pay more for the consequences of their bad behavior.	而作为一个纳税人，我宁愿交税去培养别人的好习惯，而不是为那些坏习惯的后果买单。


China’s Climate Commitment	中国的气候承诺


BEIJING – In what some might consider a surprising development, China – currently the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide – is emerging as a global leader in climate policy as it seeks to build a cleaner and more efficient economy.	北京—在当今世界最大的二氧化碳排放国中国，正在发生可能让有些人感到惊奇的事情——随着中国寻求构建更清洁、更高效的经济，它有可能成为气候政策方面的全球领袖。


Indeed, China’s efforts to curb pollution and environmental destruction, while shifting to a more sustainable growth model, can provide valuable lessons for governments worldwide.	事实上，中国治理污染和环境破坏、同时转向更为可持续的增长模式的努力能够为全世界政府提供极有价值的教益。


The first step toward sustainable economic growth is to recognize, as China’s leaders have, that pollution – produced largely through coal-fired power plants – is profoundly damaging citizens’ lives and livelihoods, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai.	迈向可持续增长的第一步是承认污染——主要由燃煤火电厂产生——正在严重伤害人民生活和健康，特别是在北京 和上海等大城市。 中国领导人正是这么做的。


Moreover, greenhouse-gas emissions are contributing to climate change, the effects of which, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns, could prove devastating for all countries, with China highly vulnerable.	此外，温室气体排放刺激着气候变化，政府间气候变化委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ）警告说，这会危及所有国家，而中国更是其中的高危国家。


Moreover, China is already the world’s largest oil importer, and energy demand continues to increase rapidly.	此外，中国已是世界最大石油进口国，并且能源需求还在快速增长。


As a result, energy security has become a serious issue.	因此，能源安全已成为严重问题。


In this context, the authorities’ effort to accelerate the shift of China’s growth model to one that is more innovative, inclusive, efficient, and sustainable represents the only feasible way forward.	因此，当局加快中国增长模式向更创新、更包容、更高效、更可持续的转变代表了唯一可行的前进方向。


The good news is that some progress has already been made, innovation is occurring rapidly, and clear plans are being formulated and implemented.	好消息是已经取得了一些进展，创新正在快速发展，并且提出和实施了清晰的计划。


China is now the world’s largest investor in clean energy, with a record $68 billion channeled toward renewable-energy development in 2012 and another $54 billion last year.	目前中国是世界最大的清洁能源投资者，2012年投入可再生能源开发的资金达到了创纪录的680亿美元，去年也达到了540亿美元。


Furthermore, its non-fossil energy supply more than doubled from 2005 to 2013 while the CO2 intensity of GDP fell by 28%.	此外，从2005年到2013年，中国非化石燃料供给增加了一倍多，GDP的二氧化碳密集度下降了28%。


And China’s reliance on coal-based energy is decreasing, with the rate of decline targeted to accelerate.	中国对煤基能源的依赖也在下降，并且提出了加速下降的目标。


But much more needs to be done.	但中国还需要做更多的事情。


Over the last eight years, China’s economy has grown by an average of 10% annually – a total increase of around 115% – leading to a 53% increase in CO2 emissions.	在过去八年中，中国经济年均增长率为10%——总增长幅度在115%左右——这导致二氧化碳排放量增加了53%。


Fortunately, China’s government recognizes the need to pursue more stable, higher-quality GDP growth.	幸运的是，中国政府认识到需要追求更稳定、更高质量的GDP增长。


At the same time, given slower growth in world markets and the challenges of domestic structural adjustment, the annual growth target has been reduced, to around 7.5%.	与此同时，由于世界市场增长放缓以及国内结构性调整挑战，中国年增长目标有所下降，目前为7. 5%左右。


These structural adjustments are aimed at reducing China’s dependence on heavy industry and manufacturing exports while fostering domestic consumption, promoting higher-tech activities, and strengthening the services sector.	这些结构性调整的目标是降低中国对重工业和制造业出口的依赖，同时提振国内消费，扶持高科技活动，并加强服务业。


This shift will naturally bring about a decline in demand for energy-intensive raw materials like iron, steel, and cement; at the same time, it will better equip China for the next stages of its development.	这一转变将自然带来铁、钢、水泥等能源密集型原材料需求的下降； 与此同时，中国也能更好地位下一阶段的发展做好准备。


To support these efforts, China will build generating stations that rely on natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable sources.	为了支持这方面的努力，中国将建造依靠天然气、核能和可再生资源的电站。


The government has already pledged $286 billion to renewable-energy development and $376 billion to energy-conservation projects in 2011-2015.	2011—2015年，政府已经投入2,860亿美元用于可再生能源开发，3,760亿美元用于能源保护工程。


Investment in coal-fired electricity generation has been shrinking year on year since 2005.	燃煤发电投资自2005年开始逐年下降。


As a result, by 2020, China’s consumption of energy generated from sources other than fossil fuels will be roughly equivalent to Japan’s total energy consumption.	因此，到2020年，中国非化石燃料能源消费量将达到日本能源总消费量的水平。


Non-fossil energy sources will comprise 15% of China’s overall energy mix, reaching 20-25% by 2030.	非化石能源资源将占中国能源资源总量的15%，并在2030年达到20—25%。


Beyond that, such sources will meet all further growth in energy demand.	除此之外，非化石能源资源将提供全部未来能���需求增量。


Along with more stringent restrictions on coal consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions, the upcoming 13th Five-Year Plan, for 2016-2020, will include additional investment in research and development.	除了更加严格地限制煤炭消费和温室气体排放，即将到来的十三五计划（2016—2020年）将包括增加研发投资的内容。


With this mix of policies, Chinese carbon emissions could peak by 2030, even as the economy grows at a rate of 4-5%.	在这一政策组合下，中国碳排放量将在2030年见顶，即使经济仍以4—5%的速度增长。


Coal consumption is likely to peak by 2025.	煤炭消费有望在2025年见顶。


These targets may be ambitious, but they are entirely achievable.	这些目标或许显得雄心勃勃，但它们完全是可以实现的。


In fact, with a sufficiently strong commitment from policymakers and businesses, China could reach its clean-energy goals ahead of schedule.	事实上，中国的决策者和企业都做出了郑重承诺，中国能够提前完成清洁能源计划目标。


Indeed, moving to a path that offers a reasonable chance of preventing the average global temperature from rising more than 2oC above the level reached in the late nineteenth century – the established international goal – requires that other countries, too, accelerate progress.	事实上，若要提高将全球平均气温较十九世纪末的水平的上升幅度限制在2℃的机会——这是国际社会所制定的目标——其他国家也需要加快进度。


This transformation promises not only to benefit the environment, but also to create new sources of economic growth and employment opportunities.	这一转变不但有助于环境，也有助于创造新的经济增长源泉和就业机会。


The Chinese dream of one billion citizens living in thriving cities – with access to high-quality education, job opportunities in high-tech industries, and a thriving services sector – can become reality.	十亿居住在日益繁荣的城市中的中国公民的中国梦——获得高质量的教育、高科技行业的就业机会和繁荣的服务业——可以成为现实。


And the benefits will not be limited to China.	好处亦不仅限于中国。


Other countries can learn from China’s experience through observation and collaboration.	其他国家可以通过观察和效仿学习中国经验。


At the same time, they can benefit from the technological advances and cost reductions that Chinese investment in renewable-energy R&D and deployment is enabling.	与此同时，它们还能从中国的可再生能源研发和开发投资所带来的技术进步和成本降低中获益。


Finally, China’s deepening commitment to sustainability could improve the chances that the United Nations climate conference in Paris in 2015 will produce a global agreement.	最后，中国对可持续性的深刻承诺能够增加2015年巴黎联合国气候会议产生全球协定的机会。


The global nature of environmental challenges creates an important opportunity for international cooperation based on shared interest.	环境挑战是个全球性问题，这为基于共同利益的国际合作创造了重要机遇。


Such cooperation should extend beyond emissions-reduction targets to technology transfer, knowledge sharing, and economic opportunity.	这一合作应该扩展到减排目标之外，将技术转移、知识共享和经济机会也囊括进来。


Rich-country policymakers, in particular, should bear in mind this imperative, given their economies’ history of high emissions and greater access to technology.	特别是富国决策者应该认识到这一当务之急，因为富裕经济体在过去排放了巨量的二氧化碳，也拥有更好的技术。


While China’s economic transformation is vital to its long-term prosperity, it is one – albeit important – step toward mitigating the massive risks associated with climate change.	中国的经济转型对于其长期繁荣来说至关重要，与此同时，这也是减轻气候变化相关风险的重要一步。


Lasting progress will require a similar commitment from governments worldwide.	持续进步需要全世界政府都做出类似的承诺。


The Spanish Revival	西班牙的重振


MUNICH – After fighting for its life for the last two years, Spain’s economy finally seems to have moved out of intensive care.	发自慕尼黑——在经历了过去两年的挣扎求存之后，西班牙经济似乎终于大病初愈。 银行部门被认定为“已修复”；


The banking sector has been deemed “cured”; demand for Spanish bonds has soared; and the country can once again raise capital at reasonable interest rates on the market.	对西班牙国债的需求也有所上涨； 政府也再度可以用合理的利率从市场融资。


But much more work must be done to ensure a stable long-term recovery.	但如果要实现一个稳定长期的复苏，还有许多工作要做。


First, the good news.	首先是一些好消息。


Investor confidence is on the mend, exemplified by the recent placement of €10 billion ($13.8 billion) in ten-year government bonds – which was over-subscribed by four times.	投资者信心正在进一步修复，比如最近发行的100亿欧元（折合138亿美元）十年期西班牙政府债券就得到了4倍的超额认购。


While risk premiums on ten-year bonds remain far above pre-crisis levels, yields have dropped considerably, from 4% at the beginning of 2010 to 3.2% today.	虽然十年期债券的风险溢价依然远高于危机前水平，但汇报率已经出现了相当程度的下降，从2010年初的4%回落到如今的3.


And a growing number of banks and companies are returning to the capital market.	2%。 同时也不断有银行和企业重新回归资本市场。


Moreover, the Spanish economy returned to growth in the third quarter of last year, and is on track to grow by roughly 1% this year.	此外，西班牙经济在去年第三季度重新实现了增长，并向着本年度增长约1%的目标迈进。


If, as expected, GDP grows by about 2% next year, Spain will outperform the eurozone average and create an environment conducive to significant long-term employment gains.	如果GDP能如预期般在明年实现约2%的增长，西班牙将超越欧元区平均水平并创造出一个可以实现明显长期就业增长的经济环境。


Perhaps the most notable consequence of Spain’s recent reform efforts is its current-account surplus – the country’s first in more than two decades.	或许西班牙近期一系列改革措施所产生的最显著成果就是其经常帐户盈余——也是该国20多年以来的第一次。


At the peak of the crisis, Spain’s current-account deficit amounted to an unprecedented 10% of GDP.	在危机高峰期，西班牙的经常帐户赤字与GDP的比例达到了前所未有的10%。


Much of this progress reflects surging exports, which grew at an annual rate of 5.2% in 2013, outperforming Germany.	其中大部分进展都体现了出口的增长上，2013年5. 2%的出口年增长率超越了德国。


Rapid export growth, together with a drop in imports, enabled Spain to halve its trade deficit last year.	迅速的出口增长与进口量的下跌相结合，令西班牙得以在去年实现贸易赤字减半。


In fact, Spanish factories have boosted their productivity to such a degree that they are now taking orders away from their European competitors.	事实上，西班牙企业已经将自身生产力提高到一定程度，甚至可以从其欧洲竞争者手中争得订单。


It should be noted, however, that productivity gains are partly attributable to a massive wave of employee layoffs – the dark side of economic remediation.	但值得留意的是，生产力的提升在某种程度上归因于大规模的企业员工解雇潮——也是经济矫正措施的负面之处。


Likewise, the reduced labor costs and falling inflation caused by recession and austerity helped to boost Spanish firms’ competitiveness within the eurozone.	同样，劳动力成本的降低以及水退和紧缩政策导致的通降下降也有助于西班牙企业提升自身在欧元区内的竞争力。


To be sure, wage and price adjustments, including temporary developments affecting food and energy costs, have turned Spain’s inflation rate negative, at roughly -0.1%.	毫无疑问，包括影响食品和能源成本的临时状态在内的工资和物价调整已经将西班牙的通胀率变为负数，约为-0.


But worries about potential deflation scenarios are unwarranted.	1%。 但对潜在通缩状况的忧虑也是没有依据的。


On the contrary, by increasing Spaniards’ real disposable incomes, low inflation is helping to stimulate private consumption, fueling a corresponding improvement in economic sentiment indicators, including consumer trust.	相反，通过提升西班牙人的实际可支配收入，低通胀有助于刺激私人消费，推动包括消费者信任度在内一系列经济观感指数的相应提升。


And yet, despite these positive indicators, Spain’s long-term economic recovery remains far from certain.	但即便存在这些积极征兆，西班牙的长期经济复苏依然面对极大的不确定性。


One critical test of its trajectory will be how investment activity develops over the next few quarters.	而对其复苏轨迹的一个关键考验就是投资行为在未来几个季度将如何进展。


Though investment stabilized in the second half of last year, it remains well below pre-crisis levels.	虽然投资在去年下半年实现了稳定，但依然大幅低于危机前水平。


The challenge is not simply to increase investment, but also to ensure that it is sustainable, unlike before the crisis, when excessive allocation of capital to real-estate development caused construction and related sectors to become overheated.	而这项挑战则不仅在于增加投资，同时也必须确保其可持续性，不能走回危机前将投资过度配置到房地产发展项目并导致基建和相关部门出现过热。


This time around, investment must be spread across all sectors, boosting their competitiveness and, in turn, their contribution to GDP growth.	这回投资必须被分散到所有部门，激发其竞争力以及随之对GDP增长的贡献。


Fortunately, the outlook appears promising, with increased private-sector confidence, rising capacity utilization, and an encouraging sales outlook for companies.	幸运的是，前景看来较为乐观，私人部门信心有所提升，资金使用率上升，企业销售前景向好。


Ongoing fiscal consolidation – and thus strong pressure to keep a tight rein on the budget – will, however, restrict public-sector investment.	然而当前的财政巩固措施——以及因此产生的保持严控预算使用的强大压力——将限制公共部门的投资。


The most potent threat to Spain’s economic recovery stems from the labor market.	而对西班牙经济复苏的最严重威胁来自于劳动力市场。 面对25.


With an unemployment rate of 25.3% – and youth unemployment running at 53.9% – the situation appears grim.	5%的失业率——以及高达53. 9%的年轻人失业率——形势显得相当严峻。


Making matters worse, despite considerable gains in the last quarter of 2013, employment growth is far too weak to make a significant dent in joblessness.	令事态更加恶化的是，尽管2013年第二季度就业率有所上升，但就业增长依然远远无法为无业者提供足够保障。


In 2012, the government implemented sweeping labor-market reforms to increase companies’ internal flexibility (making it easier to dismiss permanent workers and facilitating wage moderation), and introduced a model for reducing workers’ hours.	2012年，西班牙政府实施了大规模的劳动力市场改革以增加企业的内部灵活度（使其更容易解雇长期雇员并促进工资调整），并引进了一个减少雇员工时的模型。


But such changes take effect slowly, and often not until the recovery phase.	但这些改革收效缓慢，往往在复苏逐步实现时才能体现。


Given this, the government must do more to boost employment in the short term, especially among young people, whose knowledge, effort, and entrepreneurial spirit is critical to Spain’s long-term economic success.	有见及此，政府必须采取更多措施去在短期内推动就业，尤其是面向那些拥有对西班牙长期经济成就至关重要的知识，努力和创业精神的年轻人。


Additional measures to improve vocational training or extend part-time work, for example, could prove to be invaluable.	一些改进职业教育或延长兼职工作的额外举措都将被证明极具价值。


The final challenge facing Spain is government debt, which currently amounts to nearly 100% of GDP.	西班牙面对的最终挑战就是目前相当于GDP规模近100%政府债务。


So far, efforts to curb public debt have centered on painful austerity measures, including substantial cuts in the supply of public goods, especially health care and education.	目前为止，抑制公共负债的举措都集中在痛苦的紧缩措施之上，包括对公共产品供应（尤其是医疗教育）的持续削减。


At the same time, pension reform – including adjustments in how benefits are indexed to inflation – will ease some of the pressure on the public budget.	与此同时，养老金改革——包括对如何根据通胀调整补助金额的调整——将缓解公共预算的一些压力。


Such measures, together with further liberalization of protected domestic sectors, will strengthen Spain’s economic-growth model considerably.	这类措施，再结合那些受保护国内部门的进一步放开，将显著巩固西班牙的经济增长模式。


The risk now is a relapse into reform fatigue.	当前的风险在于重新陷入改革疲劳之中。


While a slowdown in the pace of reform might bring temporary relief, it would almost certainly reverse Spain’s hard-won achievements.	虽然放慢改革进程或许能暂时缓解改革的阵痛，但却必定会逆转西班牙辛苦得来的成果。


Indeed, with the worst now over, complacency is the Spanish economy’s worst enemy.	事实上，最坏的时期已经过去，骄傲自满才是当前西班牙经济最大的敌人。


Quantitative Easing for the People	为人民的量化宽松


OXFORD – It is now a near certainty that, by the end of this year, falling energy and commodity prices will push annual inflation in the eurozone below zero – well under the European Central Bank’s target of near 2%.	牛津—接近年底，能源和商品价格下跌将欧元区年通胀率压至零以下几乎已成定局——远远低于欧洲央行近2%的目标。


Rather than continue to allow misguided conventional thinking, centered on German economic ideology, to impede effective action, the ECB must pursue quantitative easing (QE) “for the people” – an adaptation of Milton Friedman’s “helicopter drops” strategy – to reverse deflation and get the eurozone back on track.	欧洲央行应该停止让误导性传统思维——以德国经济思想为核心——继续阻挠有效行动，而必须采取“为人民”的量化宽松——米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）的“直升飞机撒钱”策略的改版——扭转通缩、让欧元区重回正轨。


As it stands, conventional monetary policy has had – and American-style QE will have – little impact on the eurozone’s core countries.	事实表明，传统货币政策并没有对欧元区核心国家造成什么影响，美国式量化宽松也不会造成什么影响。


This can be explained partly by the fact that, when it comes to credit provision, capital markets do far less of the heavy lifting in the eurozone (where banks matter more) than in the United States.	这部分可归因于一个事实：对信用供给问题，欧元区（银行更加重要）资本市场的承重能力远远比不上美国。


As a result, bringing down yields on government, corporate, and asset-backed bonds has less impact.	因此，降低政府、公司和资产支持债券的收益率没有什么效果。


At the same time, the euro exchange rate – the one mechanism whereby current policies could still make a difference – cannot be pushed down much further.	与此同时，欧元汇率——货币政策仍能造成不同的领域——已无法进一步下降。


For starters, given the eurozone’s huge trade surplus, doing so would incur strong international resistance.	首先，欧元区存在巨大的贸易盈余，欧元贬值会招致强烈的国际抵制。


Moreover, the mechanisms by which the US Federal Reserve’s purchases of asset-backed securities stimulate consumer spending – low mortgage rates, widely available home refinancing, high housing prices, and home-equity withdrawal – function differently in the eurozone.	此外，美联储购买资产自持证券的能够刺激消费支出的机制——低按揭利率、方便的住房再融资、高房价和房屋权益收回——在欧洲都有所不同。


In Germany, France, and Italy, higher house prices spur non-owners to save more for the down payment and inspire caution among tenants, who expect future rent hikes.	在德国、法国和意大利，高房价促使无房者存更多的钱用于首付，也让租房者保持谨慎——预期房租涨价。


And the housing wealth of existing owners does not translate into significantly higher spending, given the lack of access to home-equity loans and cheap mortgage refinancing.	而房屋所有者的房产财富并不会转变为支出的大幅提升，因为他们不方便获得房屋权益贷款和廉价的按揭再融资。


Finally, in countries like Germany, where households’ bank and saving deposits far outweigh their debt, lower interest rates reduce total household spending.	最后，在德国等国家，家庭的银行和储蓄存款远远多于债务，降低利率会减少家庭总支出。


Another factor impeding QE’s impact in the eurozone is low bond yields, which, by increasing measured pension-fund deficits, make some companies reluctant to invest and thus more likely to raise contribution rates and limit pension benefits.	阻止量化宽松在欧元区起作用的另一个因素是债券收益率低迷。 这一现象增加了退休基金的记录赤字，使得一些公司不愿投资，也更容易导致退休金缴费率的提高和退休金数量的限制。


In the US, more generous assumptions regarding discount rates are used to calculate pension-fund liabilities.	美国则允许用更宽松的贴现率假设计算养老金负债。


Furthermore, US-style QE, in particular, tends to have adverse distributional implications, because it channels more money toward the wealthy, who have a lower propensity to spend, without providing much to the poorer people who would use it to consume more.	此外，美国式量化宽松还会带来消极的分配效应，因为它将更多资金引向支出倾向更低的富人，而对将钱用于增加消费的穷人支持不足。


In the eurozone, the distribution issue is especially complex, given that institutional differences between countries can give the impression of discrimination among them.	在欧元区，分配问题尤其复杂，因为国家间的制度差异会产生歧视的感觉。


Clearly, the ECB must develop a strategy that works in the eurozone’s unique system, instead of continuing to follow the Fed’s lead.	显然，欧洲央行必须发展出一套符合欧元区独特制度的战略，而不是继续跟在美联储后面亦步亦趋。


Such a strategy should be based on Friedman’s assertion that “helicopter drops” – printing large sums of money and distributing it to the public – can always stimulate the economy and combat deflation.	这一战略应该基于弗里德曼的“直升机撒钱”主张——大规模印钞并分配给公众总是能够刺激经济、解决通缩问题。


But, in order to maximize the impact of such an operation, the ECB would also have to find a way to ensure fair distribution.	但是，为了让这一措施的影响最大化，欧洲央行还必须找到办法确保公平分配。


One simple solution would be to distribute the funds to governments, which could then decide how best to spend them in their countries.	一个简单的解决办法是把资金分配给政府，让政府决定如何将资金花在各自的人民头上。


But the eurozone’s rule against using the ECB to finance government spending bars this approach.	但欧元区规则禁止欧洲央行为政府支出融资，这条路被堵死了。


A more feasible option, therefore, would be to provide all workers and pensioners with social-security numbers (or the local equivalent) with a payment from the ECB, which governments would merely assist in distributing.	因此，更加可行的办法是向所有工作者和退休者提供社会安全号（或等效措施）接收来自欧洲央行的支付，政府只是帮助分配。


Another alternative would be to use the electoral register, a public database that the ECB could use independently of governments.	另一个替代方案是使用电子注册，建立欧洲央行可以独立于政府使用的公共数据库。


Of the roughly 275 million adults with social-security numbers in the eurozone, some 90% are on the electoral register.	欧元区有大约2. 75亿拥有社会安全号的成年人，其中90%左右是注册选民。


Extrapolating from America’s experience in 2001, when a $300 per person social-security rebate boosted spending by about 25% of the total amount distributed, a €500 ($640) check from the ECB could increase spending by about €34 billion, or 1.4% of GDP.	从2001年美国的经验看，每人300美元的社会保障返现能让需求增加总分配额的25%左右，来自欧洲央行的500欧元支票可以增加大约340亿欧元的支出，或GDP的1.


The extra tax revenue that such a rebate would produce would reduce government deficits significantly.	4%。 这一返现所带来的增加的税���收入能显著降低政府赤字。


Beyond lifting the eurozone economy out of deflation, such an initiative would have massive political benefits, as it would reduce resentment toward European institutions, especially in struggling countries like Greece and Portugal, where an extra €500 would have a particularly strong impact on spending.	除了将欧元区经济带出通缩，这一方案还能带来巨大的政治收益，因为它将减少对欧洲制度的不满，特别是在希腊和葡萄牙等受困国，额外的500欧元能极大地提振支出。


In this way, the ECB could prove to disgruntled citizens and investors that it is serious about meeting its inflation target, and even help to stem the rise of nationalist parties.	如此，欧洲央行能够向不满的公民和投资者证明，它对于实现其通胀目标乃至抑制民族主义政党的兴起十分严肃认真。


To be sure, some countries – especially Germany – are likely to resist this approach by marshaling arguments about prudence and responsibility.	诚然，一些国家——特别是德国——可能通过审慎和责任主张抵制这一方针。


But the fact is that “helicopter money” would work – and nothing in eurozone law prohibits it.	但事实是“直升飞机撒钱”将起作用——并且没有欧元区法律禁止这样做。


After years of austerity, infighting, and unemployment, it is time to implement a QE program that delivers what Europe needs.	在经历了多年的紧缩、暗斗和失业后，是时候实施能满足欧洲需要的量化宽松计划了。


Rescue Helicopters for Stranded Economies	搁浅的经济的救援直升机


BERKELEY – For countries where nominal interest rates are at or near zero, fiscal stimulus should be a no-brainer.	伯克利—对名义利率为零或接近于零的国家来说，财政刺激应该是无脑选择。


As long as the interest rate at which a government borrows is less than the sum of inflation, labor-force growth, and labor-productivity growth, the amortization cost of extra liabilities will be negative.	只要政府借贷利率低于通货膨胀、劳动力增长和劳动生产率增长率之和，新增债务的分期偿还成本就是负数。


Meanwhile, the upside of extra spending could be significant.	与此同时，增加支出的好处是巨大的。


The Keynesian fiscal multiplier for large industrial economies or for coordinated expansions is believed to be roughly two – meaning that an extra dollar of fiscal expansion would boost real GDP by about two dollars.	大型工业化经济体或协调扩张的凯恩斯货币乘数据信在2左右——这意味着增加一美元财政支出可以提振约两美元真实GDP。


Some point to the risk that, once the economy recovers and interest rates rise, governments will fail to make the appropriate adjustments to fiscal policy.	一些人说，一旦经济复苏、利率升高，政府有可能无法对财政政策进行合适的调整。


But this argument is specious.	但这一观点似是而非。


Governments that wish to pursue bad policies will do so no matter what decisions are made today.	想追求坏政策的政府无论今天做出怎样的决定都会这样做。


And to the extent that this risk exists at all, it is offset by the very tangible economic benefits of stimulus: improved labor-force skills, higher business investment, faster business-model development, and new, useful infrastructure.	而即使这一风险确实存在，也可以用刺激所带来的实实在在的好处抵消：劳动力技能改善、商业投资增加、商业模式发展加速，以及有用的新基础设施。


Aversion to fiscal expansion reflects raw ideology, not pragmatic considerations.	厌恶财政扩张是一种原始思维，而不是务实考虑。 合格的经济学家都能算出美国、德国和英国有着足够大的财政乘数；


Few competent economists have failed to conclude that the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom have large enough fiscal multipliers, strong enough spillovers of infrastructure, investment, and other demand-boosting programs, and sufficient financial space to make substantially more expansionary policies optimal.	足够强的基础设施、投资和其他需求提振措施的溢出效应； 以及让大幅扩张性政策成为最优选择的充足的金融空间。


The question is not whether, but how much, fiscal stimulus is appropriate.	问题不在于财政刺激是否合适，而在于多少财政刺激合适。


Answering that should be a simple, technocratic cost-benefit calculation.	回答这一问题应该是一个简单的技术官僚性成本收益分析。


And yet, in most countries that would benefit from fiscal stimulus, nothing is being done.	但是，大部分能从财政刺激中获益的国家却无动于衷。


Faced with this, my former teacher and long-time colleague Barry Eichengreen has become positively alarmed: “The world economy is visibly sinking, and the policymakers who are supposed to be its stewards are tying themselves in knots.”	面临着一点，我的从前的恩师和长期同事巴里·艾肯格林（Barry Eichengreen）积极地警惕道：“看得出世界经济正在下沉，应该充当管家角色的决策者束手无策。


Germany’s experience with hyperinflation in the 1920s and its subsequent embrace of “ordoliberalism,” in which the government avoids interfering in the economy, has “rendered Germans allergic to macroeconomics,” Eichengreen writes.	德国20世纪20年代恶性通胀及随后采取“秩序自由主义”（ordoliberalism，政府避免干预经济）的经验“致使德国人对宏观经济学避之不及，”艾肯格林写道。


Similarly, in the US, deep-rooted suspicion of federal government power – especially in the South, where it was used to abolish slavery and enforce civil rights – has resulted in hostility to countercyclical macroeconomic policy.	类似地，在美国，对联邦政府权力的根深蒂固的怀疑——特别是在权力被用来废除奴隶制和推进公民权利的南方——导致美国人对反周期宏观经济政策怀有敌意。


“Ideological and political prejudices deeply rooted in history will have to be overcome to end the current stagnation,” Eichengreen concludes. “If an extended period of depressed growth following a crisis isn’t the right moment to challenge them, then when is?”	“必须克服深深植根于历史的思想和政治偏见才能结束当前的停滞，”艾肯格林推论说，“危机之后出现长期增长萧条，此时不挑战这些偏见更待何时？


Sadly, this debate is no longer an intellectual discussion – if it ever was.	悲哀的是，这场争论已不再是智识上的讨论——如果它曾经是的话。


As a result, a flanking move might be required.	结果，也许需要出奇制胜。


It is time for central banks to assume responsibility and implement “helicopter money,” putting cash directly into the hands of people who will spend it.	央行应该承担责任，实施“直升机撒钱”，将现金直接派发给会花钱的人。


Proponents of austerity in Germany, the US, and the UK are suspicious of central banks for the same ideological reasons they are averse to deficit-spending legislatures.	德国、美国和英国的紧缩支持者怀疑央行，其思想根源与他们厌恶赤字支出立法如出一辙。


But their objections to central banks are far weaker.	但他们对央行的反对要弱得多。


That is because, as David Glasner, an economist at the Federal Trade Commission, has pointed out, attempts to erect an automatic monetary system – whether based on the gold standard, Milton Friedman’s k-percent rule, or the Stanford University economist John Taylor’s “rules-based monetary policy” – have all crashed and burned spectacularly.	这是因为，如联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）经济学家大卫·格莱斯纳（David Glasner）所指出的，建立自动货币制度的尝试——不管是基于金本位、弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）的k百分比规则，还是斯坦福大学经济学家约翰·泰勒（John Taylor）的“基于规则的货币政策”——都遭遇了惨痛的失败。


History has refuted the University of Chicago economist Henry Simons’s call for “rules rather than authorities” in monetary policy.	历史也驳斥了芝加哥大学经济学家亨利·西蒙（Henry Simon）所呼吁的货币政策“规则而不是当局”。


The design task in monetary policy is not to construct rules but, instead, to establish authorities with sensible objectives, values, and technocratic competence.	货币政策的设计任务不是构建规则，相反，是成立带有明智的目标、价值和技术官僚能力的当局。


The actions of central banks have always been “fiscal policy” in a very real sense, simply because their interventions alter the present value of future government principal and interest payments.	在相当现实的层面上，央行的行为永远是“财政政策”，原因很简单，它们的干���改变了未来政府本金和利息支付的现值。


But when it comes to promoting economic recovery, central banks can certainly do more.	但在促进经济复苏方面，央行显然可以做得更多。


They have immense regulatory powers to require that the banks under their supervision hold capital, lend to classes of borrowers that have historically faced discrimination, and serve the communities in which they are embedded.	它们拥有强大的监管权力要求受它们监督的银行持有资本，向历史上受到区别对待的借款人阶级贷款，以及服务它们所在的社区。


And they have clever lawyers.	它们还拥有聪明的律师。


Helicopter money could take many forms.	直升机撒钱可以有多种形式。


Its exact shape will depend on the legal structure of a given central bank, and on the extent to which its administrators are willing to take actions that go beyond their traditional authority (with the implicit or explicit promise that the rest of the government will turn a blind eye).	其具体情况取决于给定央行的法律结构，以及央行行长在多大程度上愿意采取超越传统权限范围的行动（在获得政府其他部门将睁只眼闭只眼的直接或间接承诺的情况下）。


Success in rebooting the economy will depend on ensuring that the extra cash goes into the hands of those who are constrained in their spending by low incomes and a lack of collateral assets.	成功重振经济取决于确保增加的现金流入支出因低收入和缺乏抵押资产而饱受限制的人手中。


And, as with governments engaged in fiscal stimulus, the key to a positive outcome will be to rule out even a smidgeon of fear that repayment obligations will become onerous in any way.	此外，和采取财政刺激的政府一样，产生积极结果的关键是排除一切对偿付义务会变得无比艰巨的担心。


Helicopter Money Is in the Air	从天而降的流动性


LONDON – Fiscal policy is edging back into fashion, after years, if not decades, in purdah.	发自伦敦——在沉寂数年（或许甚至数十年）之后，被打入冷宫的财政政策似乎又变得热门起来。


The reason is simple: the incomplete recovery from the global crash of 2008.	原因很简单：我们依然未能从2008年的全球性崩溃中完全恢复过来。


Europe is the worst off in this regard: its GDP has hardly grown in the last four years, and GDP per capita is still less than it was in 2007.	欧洲是在这方面表现最差的：在过去的四年中其GDP几乎没有增长，人均GDP仍低于2007年的水平。


Moreover, growth forecasts are gloomy.	此外对经济增长的预期也相当悲观。


In July, the European Central Bank published a report suggesting that the negative output gap in the eurozone was 6%, four percentage points higher than previously thought.	欧洲央行于今年7月公布的一份报告显示，欧元区负产出缺口为6％，比先前预计的要高出4个百分点。


“A possible implication of this finding,” the ECB concluded, “is that policies aimed at stimulating aggregate demand (including fiscal and monetary policies) should play an even more important role in the economic policy mix.”	欧洲央行的结论认为：“这一发现可能产生的影响是旨在刺激总需求（包括财政政策和货币政策）政策应当在经济政策组合中扮演更重要的作用。


Strong words from a central bank.	”对中央银行来说这已经是相当明显的表态了。


Fiscal policy has been effectively disabled since 2010, as the slump saddled governments with unprecedented postwar deficits and steeply rising debt-to-GDP ratios.	财政政策自2010年以来基本上就被废止了，因为萧条带来的二战后规模最大的巨额赤字和急剧上升的负债/GDP比率把各国政府吓得不敢动弹。


Austerity became the only game in town.	紧缩因此成为了唯一的选择。


This left monetary policy the only available stimulus tool.	这让货币政策变成了唯一可用的刺激手段。


The Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve injected huge amounts of cash into their economies through “quantitative easing” (QE) – massive purchases of long-term government and corporate securities.	英格兰银行和美国联邦储备委员会通过“定量宽松”——大量采购长期政府和公司债券——来向本国经济体注入巨量现金。


In 2015, the ECB also started an asset-buying program, which ECB President Mario Draghi promised to continue “until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.”	欧洲央行也在2015年启动了资产购买计划，而行长马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）承诺将一直购买下去“直到我们看到迈向通胀路径的持续调整”。


QE has not been a magic bullet.	量化宽松最终未能成为灵丹妙药。


While it helped stop the slide into another Great Depression, successive injections of money have yielded diminishing returns.	虽然有助于阻止滑入另一次大萧条，但资金连续注入也导致其作用递减。


The ECB’s announcement of its policy narrowed the gap in bond yields between Europe’s core and periphery.	欧洲央行的政策宣言缩小了欧洲的核心与外围国家之间的债券收益率差距。


But a study by Thomas Fazi of the Institute for New Economic Thinking emphasizes QE’s lack of influence on bank lending, the increase in non-performing loans, and the dire output and inflation figures themselves.	但是新经济思维研究所（New Economic Thinking）的托马斯·法齐（Thomas Fazi）的研究指出量化宽松对银行贷款，不良贷款的增加以及难看的产出和通胀数据都缺乏影响力。


Moreover, QE has undesirable distributional consequences, because it gives money to those who have already have it, and whose current spending is little influenced by having more.	此外量化宽松还存在负面的分配性后果，因为它把钱给了那些本已富有的人，而就算变得更加有钱，这些人经常性支出也很少受到影响。


Policymakers should have been alert to the likelihood of this mediocre outcome.	决策者应当警惕出现这一不痛不痒结果的可能性。


When central banks try to reduce inflation by pumping liquidity out of the system, their policy is subverted by commercial banks’ ability to pump it back in by making loans.	当央行试图通过将流动性抽离系统来降低通胀的时候，其政策效应又被商业银行通过贷款来重新注入流动性的能力所逆转了。


In today’s deflationary environment, the reverse has happened.	在当今通货紧缩的大环境下，这一逆转正在发生。


Central banks’ attempt to pump in liquidity to stimulate activity is subverted by commercial banks’ ability to pump liquidity out by augmenting reserves and refusing to lend.	而央行注入流动性来增加经济活动的尝试又被商业银行增加储备并拒绝贷款的行为所逆转了。


That leaves fiscal policy.	这使得财政政策成为了最后选项。


The logic of current economic conditions implies that governments should be taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates to invest in infrastructure projects, which would both stimulate demand and improve the structure of the economy.	当前经济状况的逻辑意味着政府应该利用超低利率的时机来投资于可以刺激需求和改善经济结构的基础设施项目。


The problem is the climate of expectations.	而问题在于围绕这一预期的气氛究竟有多浓厚。


As the Oxford economist John Muellbauer says, treasuries and central banks have been “hammering into the consciousness of the private sector the importance of reducing gross government debt relative to GDP.”	正如牛津大学经济学家约翰·穆尔鲍尔（John Muellbauer）所说，国债和央行已经“将减少政府总负债相对GDP比率的重要性深深地根植到私人部门的意识中了”。


This orthodoxy arises from the idea that borrowing is simply “deferred taxation.”	这种正统思维源于将借款简单视为��递延征税”的想法。


If the private sector believes that taxes will have to rise to pay for government borrowing, according to this view, people will increase their savings to pay the higher taxes, thus destroying any stimulative effect.	根据这一观点，如果私人部门认为税收将上升以支付政府债务，人们就会增加储蓄以支付更高的税收，从而破坏任何经济刺激举措。


The orthodoxy mistakenly assumes that government spending cannot generate any extra income; but so long as it prevails, debt-financed fiscal policy is ruled out as a means to revive economic growth.	正统思维误以为政府的支出不会产生任何额外收入； 但只要这一思维继续盛行，由债务融资的财政政策就无法被用作重振经济增长的手段。


As a result, analysts and policymakers have started mooting ideas for unconventional fiscal policy to supplement unconventional monetary policy.	因此，分析人士和政策制定者们已经开始拟定一些非常规财政政策理念以作为非常规货币政策的补充。


In particular, they are debating variations of so-called helicopter money, following a famous thought experiment by Milton Friedman in 1969, in which “one day a helicopter…drops an additional $1,000 in bills from the sky.”	尤其是他们正在讨论所谓直升机撒钱的各种变体，沿袭米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）于1969年提出的著名思想实验——“有天一架直升机. .


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, among others, has offered influential support for “helicopter drops” to revive flagging economies.	从天上撒下了本不存在的，总面值为1000美元的纸币。 ”在众人之中还有前美联储主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）为用“直升机币”来振兴衰退的经济体提供了极具影响力的支持。


Helicopter money comes in two forms, which could (and should) be dropped together.	直升机撒钱有两种形式，可以（也应该）同时被撒下来。


The first is to put purchasing power directly into the hands of consumers – for example, by issuing each voter or citizen with smart cards worth $1,000 each.	首先是把直接购买力直接注入消费者手中——比如发给每个选民或公民内含1000美元的提款卡。


The Swiss economist Silvio Gesell, who originally proposed a scheme of “stamped money” at the start of the last century, added a stipulation that balances unspent after a month should be taxed, to discourage hoarding.	在上世纪初首先提出“盖戳钱（stamped money）”方案的瑞士经济学家西尔维奥·格塞尔（Silvio Gesell）补充说未花掉的金额应当在一个月后征税以防囤积。


Alternatively, helicopter money could be used to finance infrastructure spending.	另外，直升机币可以用于资助基础设施建设支出。


The advantage of such “monetary financing” is that such spending, while adding to the deficit and leading to a permanent increase in the money supply, would not increase the national debt, because the government would “owe” the money only to its own banker.	这种“货币融资”的好处是虽然这样支出既增加了赤字又导致货币供给的永久性增加，但却不会增加国家负债，因为政府只是“欠”自己银行的钱。


This would eliminate the offsetting negative expectation of higher taxes.	这将抵消提高税率的负面预期。


Surely, issuing debt that never has to be repaid is too good to be true, right?	当然，发行不用偿还的债务显然有点不靠谱。


There is indeed the obvious danger that governments might easily become addicted to monetary finance to pay for private and public spending, which is why it is unlikely to be tried openly unless economic conditions worsen significantly.	这也的确存在明显的危险，即政府很可能会沉溺于用货币资金支付私人和公共开支且无法自拔，这是为何除非经济状况显著恶化，否则不可能明目张胆地使用这一手段的原因。


But the political risk of doing nothing if we stumble into another recession (as seems quite likely) is worse.	但袖手旁观而导致我们再次陷入另一次衰退（如今看起来很可能）的政治风险显然更大。


Like it or not, unconventional fiscal policy could well be the next game in town.	不管你喜欢与否，非常规的财政政策很可能就是下一个唯一的选择。


Money from Heaven?	天上掉钱？


TOKYO – The world economy is struggling.	东京—世界经济举步维艰。 单一货币束缚而非解放了欧元区；


The single currency is fettering, not freeing, the eurozone; Japan is smarting from the slowdown of America’s normalization of monetary policy; and emerging markets worldwide are suffering the consequences of China’s economic mismanagement.	日本因为美国货币政策正常化速度放缓而遭受重创； 全球新兴市场承受着中国经济管理不善的后果。


But adverse global conditions, however troubling, should not lead central bankers to neglect the risks of untested policies – above all the “helicopter drops” that many are now proposing.	但不利的全球条件不管多么麻烦，都不应该让央行行长忽视未受过检验的政策的风险——首屈一指的便是目前许多人提出的“直升机撒钱”。


Conceived in 1969 by Milton Friedman as part of a thought experiment – not an actual proposal – helicopter drops got their name from the fantastic vision of fresh money being scattered from a helicopter whirring overheard.	直升机撒钱由弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）在1969年提出，它是弗里德曼思想实验的一部分，而不是一个实际方案。 顾名思义，直升机撒钱就是让盘旋在半空中的直升机洒下现金。


But the point of helicopter drops – or what former US Fed Chair Ben Bernanke recently called a “money-financed fiscal program” (MFFP) – is simply to distribute newly printed cash directly to consumers, such as through tax rebates.	但直升机撒钱——或者美联储前主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）最近所谓的“货币融资的财政计划”（MFFP）——的含义无非是直接把新创货币分给消费者，比如通过退税手段。


Over the last half-century, central bankers have repeatedly ruled out the use of MFFP.	在过去五十年中，央行行长一再将MFFP的使用排除在外。


But in the current environment of persistently weak aggregate demand, below-target inflation, and slow or no output growth, economists worldwide have been desperately seeking deus ex machina – a search that, for some, has led to the heliport.	但在当前总需求持续低迷、通胀低于目标和产出增长低迷或消失的情况下，全世界经济学家一直在苦苦寻找神力——其中一些人把目光投向了直升机。


Among the most prominent advocates of MFFP is Adair Turner, whose latest book, Between Debt and the Devil, provides an insightful thought experiment on the use of helicopter money.	MFFP最著名的支持者之一是阿代尔·特纳（Adair Turner），其最新著作《债务和魔鬼》（Between Debt and the Devil）提供了一个颇有见地的使用直升机撒钱的思想实验。


Turner and his fellow MFFP advocates seem to believe that placing more money in the hands of the public is practically always welcome.	特纳及其MFFP支持者同志似乎认为，给公众派发更多钱几乎永远是值得欢迎的。


In their view, it is not only a straightforward way instantly to boost real demand; it also seems preferable to debt-financed fiscal stimulus, owing both to political constraints on debt-burdened governments and to MFFP’s more direct – and thus faster – impact on economy-wide spending.	在他们看来，这只不过是立刻刺激真实需求的直接方法； 这也似乎比债务融资的财政刺激更值得追求，因为负债的政府存在政治约束，而MFFP对整个经济的支出的影响更直接也更迅速。


But MFFP could easily produce too much demand.	但MFFP很可能产生过度需求。


The only guarantee against an inflationary surge in this scenario is the prudence of policymakers.	在这一情形中，唯一能够确保不产生通胀性激增的只有决策者的审慎。


But their incentive to limit inflation may not be particularly strong.	但决策者限制通胀的激励可能并不十分强烈。


In fact, throughout history, governments have had strong political incentives to monetize the deficit, with the subsequent inflation reducing the debt burden (and effectively confiscating the borrowed savings).	事实上，纵观历史，政府存在强烈的政治激励将赤字货币化，由此产生的通货膨胀降低了财政负担（以及对被借走的储蓄的实际没收）。


That is why inflation is so much more prevalent in history than deflation.	因此，历史上通胀比通缩普遍得多。


Yet no MFFP proposal even recognizes this tendency, much less includes provisions to avoid it.	但所有MFFP计划都不承认这一倾向，更不用说包含避免这一点的内容了。


Of course, central banks are independent from government precisely to ensure that their policies are utterly pragmatic, instead of being shaped by partisan politics.	当然，央行从政府独立正是为了确保它们的政策的务实性，而不受党派政治的左右。


But, in reality, such conduct has been repeatedly absent.	但是，在现实中，这一安排常常缺位。


Who today still holds up former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan as a paragon of sagacity?	时至今日，谁还认为美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）是一个睿智的完人？


Still, the biggest risk is posed by fiscal authorities, who tend to be more heavily influenced by political considerations.	最大的风险仍来自财政当局，它们总是更大地受政治考虑影响。


Unfortunately, MFFP, by matching monetary expansion to fiscal expansion, effectively empowers fiscal authorities over monetary authorities.	不幸的是，MFFP将货币扩张与财政扩张相匹配，实际上给了财政当局凌驾于货币当局的权力。


Turner believes that Japan, in particular, would benefit from helicopter drops.	特纳认为，日本尤其将从直升机撒钱中获益。


In his view, MFFP is the ideal solution to spur demand, without further augmenting Japan’s already-heavy debt burden.	在他看来，MFFP是刺激需求的完美方案，不会进一步加剧日本已然十分沉重的债务负担。


But Japan’s large public-debt burden is dangerous precisely because of its potential to spur inflation, through the monetization of the debt.	但日本庞大的公共债务负担之所以危险，正是因为它有可能通过债务货币化刺激通胀。


In this context, introducing MFFP – a policy that is even more likely to destabilize prices – seems dangerous.	在这样的背景下，引入MFFP——更容易让价格波动的政策——是危险的。


Japan has made this mistake before.	日本曾经犯过这样的错误。


In 1931, after more than a decade of deep deflation, Finance Minister Korekiyo Takahashi used debt-financed fiscal expansion to bring about a domestic economic revival.	1931年，在经历了十年的深度通缩后，财务相高桥是清使用债务融资的财政扩张刺激国内经济复苏。


But Takahashi knew when it was time to rein in spending, and in 1934 he attempted to do just that.	但高桥知道，彼时应该遏制支出，1934年，他开始尝试这么做。


His focus on reducing military expenditure, however, attracted strong opposition from army officers, who assassinated Takahashi in 1936.	但他将重点放在了缩减军事支出上，这引起了军官的强烈反对，并在1936年将高桥刺杀。


His successor allowed the military budget to swell, funded by newly created money.	他的继任者放任军事预算继续膨胀，用新创货币提供资金。


This stimulated rapid inflation, which was brought under control only after the reconstruction following World War II.	这刺激了迅速的通货膨胀，直到二战结束的重建才受到控制。


Today, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s approach to monetary expansion – central to his “Abenomics” program for economic recovery – is producing positive results, especially in the labor market.	如今，首相安倍晋三的货币扩张方针——其经济复苏计划“安倍经济学”的核心——正在产生积极结果，特别是在劳动力市场。


The job-to-applicant ratio stands at 1.28, its highest level since 1991.	招聘-应聘比率为1. 28，为1991年以来最高。


The wages of part-time workers are, for the first time in Japan’s history, rising faster than those of full-time employees.	兼职工人工资增长速度在日本历史上首次超过了全职员工。


Moreover, prices of food products have started to increase.	此外，食品价格一开始上涨。


Japanese companies are generating strong profits (Japanese stocks may even be undervalued).	日本公司盈利强劲（日本股票甚至因此低估）。


And, although GDP is growing very slowly, and even turning negative from time to time, gross national income continues to rise steadily.	而尽管GDP增长十分缓慢，甚至时不时陷入负增长，但国民总收入继续稳步上升。


It seems clear that, rather than risk triggering inflation, Japan should continue on this promising path.	情况似乎清楚地表明，日本应该继续沿着这条希望大道前进，而不是去冒引发通胀的危险。


And, indeed, even Turner has offered an alternative proposal that fits with this scenario.	而事实上，特纳也提供了适合这一情景的另一种方案。


He recommends that Japan continue its current method of monetary easing – which can boost demand, while maintaining some safeguard against inflation – and postpone its forthcoming consumption-tax hike.	他建议日本继续当前货币宽松方针——可以刺激需求，同时保持一定的通胀防卫能力——停止即将到来的消费税提升。


While fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion do not always have to go hand in hand, under current circumstances in Japan, this proposal makes sense.	财政刺激和货币扩张未必总是需要齐头并进，但在当前日本的环境中，这一方案是明智的。


The False Promise of Helicopter Money	直升机撒钱的错误前景


LONDON – One of the most prominent questions concerning the global economy today is whether monetary policy is approaching the limit of its effectiveness.	伦敦—如今，全球经济关注的最主要的问题之一是货币政策是否正在接近效果极限。


Inflation remains well below target in the eurozone and Japan, despite aggressive quantitative easing (QE) and negative policy interest rates, and both the euro and yen have appreciated against the US dollar since the start of the year.	在欧元区和日本，尽管实施了大规模量化宽松和负政策利率，通货膨胀仍远低于目标，欧元和日元自今年年初以来对美元出现升值。


The problem with the debate is that it has focused solely on the effectiveness of policies, without considering the need for prudence.	这一争论的问题是它至关注政策的效果，而没有考虑审慎的需要。


The credibility and independence of monetary authorities are essential to the effectiveness of their policies.	货币当局的信誉和独立性是其货币政策效果的关键。


And yet some of the proposals being fielded call for central banks to stray further into uncharted territory, expanding and extending their deviation from careful balance-sheet management.	但目前提出的一些方案让央行进一步迷失在未知领域，加剧和延长了它们与谨慎资产产负债表管理的背离。


This could inflict reputational damage that may be difficult to rectify, with real financial and economic consequences.	这可能造成信誉损害，而信誉损害可能难以挽回，带来真正的金融和经济后果。


The direct impact of unconventional monetary policy is apparent and largely as expected (with the exception of the recent appreciation of the euro and yen).	非常规货币政策的直接影响显而易见，并且基本上符合预期（除了最近欧元和日元的升值）。


Liquidity in banking systems is ample, and borrowing costs have declined, even turning negative for some governments.	银行系统流动性充足，借贷成本有所下降，一些政府的借贷成本甚至成为负数。


But the expected second-order effects – increased economic activity and inflation – have not materialized.	但预期的二阶影响——经济活动和通货膨胀抬头——并未实现。


As a result, despite the fact that headline inflation is being dragged down by low commodity prices, a near-consensus has emerged that additional easing is required.	结果，尽管标题通胀因为大宗商品商品价格低迷而受到压制，人们仍近乎一致地认为需要加码宽松。


Monetary policy is not the only option for further easing, but it is the most likely.	货币政策不是进一步宽松的唯一选择，但是最有可能的选择。


Structural reforms to support growth typically have long gestation periods, and the economic dislocations that accompany them reduce their political appeal.	支持增长的结构改革通常需要漫长的酝酿期，而伴随结构改革带来的经济错位降低了它们的政治吸引力。


Further fiscal easing is at least partly constrained by record-high levels of government debt, which will take many years to bring down.	进一步财政改革至少部分受到位于创纪录水平的政府债务的掣肘，政府债务需要多年时间才能降下来。


When it comes to monetary policy, however, the options are similarly limited.	但是，对于货币政策，选择也同样有限。


Even monetary policymakers acknowledge that QE is subject to diminishing returns, while adverse effects on the banking system limit the scope for setting policy rates too deeply negative.	甚至货币决策者也承认，量化宽松受到回报递减的影响，而对银行系统的副作用限制了将政策利率过度为负的空间。


As a result, an old idea, first proposed by Milton Friedman in 1969, is making a comeback: “helicopter money.”	结果，一个首先由弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）在1969年提出的方案卷土重来：“直升机撒钱”。


Advocates envisage central banks creating money and distributing it directly to those who would spend it, resulting in immediate increases in demand and inflation.	支持者认为央行应该创造货币并直接把它们分给会花钱的人，从而带来需求和通胀的立刻提升。


Because households might choose to save some of the money, contemporary suggestions center on helicopter money being transferred to governments, to invest in infrastructure projects or other demand-enhancing initiatives.	由于家庭可能选择将部分资金储蓄起来，因此当代直升机撒钱建议的核心转移到政府身上，即政府进行基础设施项目或其他加强需求的项目的投资。


Variations call for central banks to buy perpetual government bonds that pay no interest or to convert existing bond holdings into something similar.	其变体包括要求央行买入不支付利息的永久政府债券或将所持债券转换为类似的东西。


Such proposals are troubling for many reasons.	这些建议麻烦重重，原因很多。


The direct funding by central banks of fiscal deficits or purchases of government debt would result in the monetization of fiscal policy.	央行直接为财政赤字或购买政府债券融资将导致财政政策货币化。


Monetization unambiguously weakens central banks’ balance sheets by adding assets that carry no real value (claims on government that will never be repaid), offset by liabilities (newly created money) generated to acquire them.	货币化必然将增加不带来真实价值的资产（永远不会偿付的政府债权），该资产由创造出来用于收购它们的负债（新创货币）抵消，从而削弱央行资产负债表。


Advocates of helicopter money rely on two claims.	直升机撒钱的支持者依赖两个观点。


Some believe that policy can be calibrated to stop short of inflicting meaningful harm, usually because the resulting improvement in economic conditions will obviate the need for continued stimulus.	一些人认为政策可以调整从而避免带来有意义的伤害，这通常是因为政策所产生的经济条件方面的改善将消除进一步刺激的需要。


For others, central banks’ balance sheets are not a constraint, because the exclusive ability to create additional unlimited and cost-free liabilities guarantees long-term profitability.	也有一些人认为央行资产负债表不是制约因素，因为创造新增无限量无成本负债的专属能力保证了长期盈利能力。


There are problems with both claims.	这两种观点都有问题。


Relying on a calibrated approach counts on stimulus being withdrawn before any evidence of concern over the central bank’s finances appears.	依靠方针调整的前提是刺激在产生任何担心央行财务状况的迹象之前就结束。


But there is no certainty that monetized fiscal spending will spark an economic recovery.	但货币化财政支出并不一定能够刺激经济复苏。


Nor can it be known beforehand that expansionary fiscal policy would be curtailed if economic prospects do not improve.	同样，也无法事先获知扩张性财政政策将在经济前景不改善的情况下取消。


In fact, in the absence of negative public or market commentary on central-bank finances, the fiscal authorities may be tempted to expand their use of cost-free funding in what looks from their perspective very much like the proverbial “free lunch.”	事实上，如果不出现针对央行财务状况的负面公共或市场评论，财政当局可能继续动用无成本融资，从他们的角度看，这很像是传说中的“免费的午餐”。


There are also serious reasons to doubt the claim that seigniorage – the profit to central banks from having zero-cost liabilities (and at least some income-generating assets) – would guarantee profitability in the long term.	关于铸币税——央行得自零成本负债的利润——能确保长期盈利能力的观点也有重大理由质疑。


Never in the post-gold standard era has there been greater focus on the limits of monetary policy.	在后金本位时代，人们从未如此关注货币政策的极限。


This focus could easily turn to the health of central banks’ balance sheets if they continue to expand.	这一关注可能轻易转向央行负债表的健康情况，如果它们继续扩张的话。


The concept of seigniorage is poorly understood outside a relatively small community; it should not be used as the first line of defense.	铸币税的概念除了一个相对较小的圈子并不为人们所很好的理解； 不应该用它作为首要辩护理由。


None of this comes as news to central banks, which attach the utmost importance to their reputation for having robust finances, carefully managing risk, and ensuring the soundness of money.	对央行来说，这些都不是新闻。 对央行来说，最重要的莫过于来自保持财务稳健、谨慎管理资产和确保货币可靠性的名誉。


Indeed, the financial prudence that underpins policy credibility and confidence in central banks is ultimately what makes seigniorage possible.	事实上，作为央行政策信誉和信心的基础的金融审慎才是让铸币税成为可能的终极因素。


Only institutions that are perceived as financially viable can expect their liabilities to be held by others as assets; central banks are no exception.	只有被认为财务可靠的机构，其负债才能被其他人持有为资产； 央行也不例外。


At stake is the value of money.	受影响的是货币价值。


Helicopter money would transfer risk from governments’ balance sheets to those of central banks, blurring the lines between policies, institutions, and their relative autonomy.	直升机撒钱将把风险从政府资产负债表转移到央行资产负债表，模糊政策、机构和它们之间的相对自主权之间的界线。


Its appeal lies in being able to exploit the unique financial structures of central banks.	其好处在于能够利用央行独特的财务结构。


But there are limits beyond which confidence in the financial integrity of central banks – and consequently the soundness of money – will be undermined.	但它也有极限，越过了极限，对央行财务健全性的信心——以及对货币可靠性的信心——就会受到破坏。


Those limits are of course impossible to identify in advance.	这些极限当然无法实现确定。


But at a time of heightened sensitivity to the implementation and effectiveness of monetary policy, it would be a mistake to embark on a path that jeopardizes central banks’ very viability.	但在货币政策的事实和效果高度敏感的时期，采取危害央行生存能力的路径将是一个错误。


Help the Poor Help Themselves	助穷人自救


HELSINKI – One early result of today’s global recession is that many donor governments are trimming their foreign aid programs.	赫尔辛基——今天全球衰退的早期结果之一是许多捐助政府都在调整它们的对外援助计划。


Before taking office, President Barack Obama had promised a doubling of American foreign assistance, from $25 billion to $50 billion, but since then Vice-President Joe Biden has warned that this commitment will probably be achieved more slowly because of the downturn.	正式接任前，巴拉克·奥巴马总统曾许诺要让美国的对外援助翻番，从250亿美元增加到500亿美元，不过自那以后副总统乔·拜登就警告过经济低迷可能会使该承诺实现起来更加缓慢。


Here in Finland, our aid decreased by 62% in the early 1990’s, a period that Finns still call “The Depression.”	在芬兰，20世纪90年代初我们的援助减少了62%，芬兰人到现在仍将这一时期称之为“经济萧条期”。


Japan’s overseas aid declined by 44% when that country hit hard times.	国家进入到困难时期后，日本的海外援助下降了44%。


The current worldwide slump could bring a cut in official development assistance (ODA) of 30%.	目前这场全球经济衰退将致使官方发展援助降低30%。


It is also easy to predict that donor governments will be looking carefully at the ever-growing expenditure on the United Nations’ 14 peacekeeping operations around the world.	捐助政府将仔细审核联合国14项全球维和行动不断扩大的开支，这一点不难预测。


The total bill for all UN operations in the 12 months to mid-2008 reached $6.7 billion, about twice the level 15 years ago.	截止2008年中的12个月内，所有联合国行动经费高达67亿美元，约为15年前的两倍。


One can only imagine the grave consequences if operations that are already spread thin are cut.	如果已经大大稀释的维和行动遭到削减，人们只能凭空想象后果会有多么严重。


Recall that the Rwandan genocide was preceded by a similar lack of enthusiasm for financing the UN mission there.	回想当年卢旺达种族灭绝发生之前，类似的对资助联合国行动缺乏热情的状况也曾经在那里出现。


Recent events in Congo and elsewhere suggest that there is no room for complacency.	刚果和其他地区的最新进展表明我们没有沾沾自喜的空间。


But by far the biggest transfer of assets from rich countries to the developing world takes place through migrant workers’ remittances.	但从富国到发展中国家最大规模的资产转移显然是移民劳动力的汇款。


Few decision-makers seem aware of this.	似乎没有几个决策者意识到这一点。


In 2006, around 150 million migrants sent roughly $300 billion to their families in developing countries.	2006年，约1亿5千万移民为他们在发展中国家的亲人汇去约3千亿美元。


The number of transactions is huge, estimated at 1.5 billion remittances annually.	这些汇款交易数量非常庞大，每年估计会发生15亿次汇款。


Most are for sums of only $100-$300, and they normally go towards immediate household consumption.	汇款金额多数仅在100到300美元之间，它们几乎立即进入到家庭日常消费环节。


The value of all ODA in 2006 was $126 billion, less than half the value of private remittances, even though it includes assistance from OECD and non-OECD countries, as well as from China.	尽管经合组织及非经合组织国家的援助都包括在内，还有来自中国的援助，但2006年官方发展援助价值1260亿美元，还不到私人汇款的一半。


If the recession costs migrants their jobs in richer host countries and forces them to return home to their countries of origin, millions of already poor people will be thrown into greater poverty.	如果经济萧条使移民在富裕国家失去工作，迫使他们返回原籍，那么数百万已经贫困的人会进一步陷入贫困的深渊。


The possible impact can be gauged by looking at where the $300 billion in remittances are distributed.	可以通过研究这3千亿美元汇款的分布状况来对可能的影响进行估算。


In 2006, poorer European countries received about $50 billion, Africa got $38 billion, Latin America and the Caribbean $68 billion, the Middle East $24 billion.	2006年，相对贫困的欧洲国家收到约500亿美元、非洲380亿、拉美及加勒比680亿、中东240亿。


Asia is the major beneficiary, receiving $113 billion.	亚洲是最大的受益者，收到的汇款总额为1130亿美元。


In all, an estimated 10% of the world’s population is estimated to benefit from remittances, with 57 countries each receiving $1 billion or more annually.	估计共有10%的世界人口受益于移民汇款，57个国家每年达到或超过10亿美元。


Indeed, some countries are dependent on this income flow.	事实上，某些国家完全依赖这种汇款。


Cape Verde received 34% of its GDP from remittances, Eritrea 38% and Burundi 23%.	佛得角34%的国内生产总值来自汇款、厄立特里亚38%、布隆迪23%。


In Asia, the figures were 30% for Afghanistan and 38% for Tajikistan, while in Europe Moldova received 31% of its GDP from external sources.	亚洲的数字是阿富汗30%，塔吉克斯坦38%，而欧洲的摩尔多瓦31%的国内生产总值源自国外汇款。


Some of these countries are either in conflict or are fragile states, so a diminishing flow of remittances will aggravate their instability, and perhaps increase the flow of migration to other countries.	这些国家不是陷入冲突就是非常脆弱，因此汇款数量减少可能加剧不稳定局面，也许还会增加移民他国的人数。


Governments in Europe and elsewhere should therefore consider carefully what other forces will be at work if and when migrant workers are sent home.	因此欧洲和其他国家的政府应该仔细考虑如果把移民劳动力遣送回家，将会带来什么样的后果。


These governments already spend tax money on direct foreign aid.	这些政府已经利用税金开展直接对外援助。


So they should weigh tax breaks that might entice employers to keep migrant workers on the payrolls, as this would probably be a much more efficient way to support these poor countries.	因此他们应该权衡可能诱使雇主继续雇佣移民劳动力的减免税政策，因为这或许是支持贫困国家更为有效的途径。


Moreover, given that transaction costs often take a big slice of remittances, aid mechanisms could be used to create safe and cheap channels for financial flows, especially where private money cannot easily reach remote rural areas, as is often the case in Africa or Asia.	此外，交易成本通常会在汇款中占据很大比例，因此可以利用援助机制建立起资金流动的安全廉价的通道，在私人款项无法轻易到达的农村偏远地区更是如此，非洲和亚洲经常会出现这样的状况。


Anti-terrorism laws are a problem here, because the demand for more effective control mechanisms on international financial transfers places an extra burden on remittance operators.	反恐怖主义法在这里是个问题，因为对更有效的国际金融转移控制机制的需求为汇款操作人员造成了额外的负担。


These new rules have certainly pushed transaction costs higher.	这些新规则显然推高了交易成本。


But the fight against terror and its financing means that governments and financial institutions have extensive data on the cross-border flow of money, which should be used to help people send money to their relatives more easily.	但对抗恐怖主义及相关融资的斗争意味着政府和金融机构掌握了资金跨境流动的大量数据，我们应该利用这些数据帮助人们更轻松地将钱汇给他们的亲属。


Sending money to some countries is now allowed only through formal banking channels, and this has created virtual monopolies while also preventing remittance money from reaching rural areas where banks don’t operate.	现在只允许通过正规的银行渠道向某些国家汇款，因此形成了虚拟化垄断，同时也妨碍了没有银行的农村地区接收汇款。


In West Africa, a simple money transfer operator now handles 70% of official payments and also imposes exclusivity on banks.	在西非地区，一名汇款操作员现在处理了70%的官方付款，同时也造就了银行的垄断。


Allowing more informal financial institutions to channel foreign payments would ease the money flow to remote regions.	允许更多非正式金融机构涉足国外支付会使资金流向边远地区更加方便。


Cooperatives, credit unions, and new forms of micro-financing could form networks that would ensure greater accessibility.	合作社、存款互助会和新型小额金融机构可以组成确保资金方便到达的网络。


Restrictive legal rules in some countries exclude migrants from using official banking systems unless they have the necessary legal status.	某些国家限制性的法律规定剥夺了移民使用官方银行系统的权利，除非他们拥有必要的合法身份。


Other countries, however, have taken steps to make remittance transfers possible via mobile phones.	而其他国家已经采取措施，使人们可以通过手机进行汇款。


The sheer size of these remittances, and their importance in keeping many millions of people above the poverty line, suggests that rich-country governments should take a careful look at the existing system.	上述汇款的纯粹金额，以及它们使数百万人避免陷入贫困的重要作用，表明富裕国家政府应仔细审核现有的汇款系统。


An improved system could help alleviate the burden imposed on innocent victims of the financial and economic downturn.	改善系统现状可以有助于减轻金融和经济低迷给无辜牺牲者带来的负担。


Such a review of remittances should look into restrictive practices that could be abolished, and ask whether official assistance should be adapted to the needs of this informal yet crucially important aid network.	对汇款行为的审核应调查有哪些限制性措施可以取消，并询问是否应当采取官方援助措施，以满足这种非正式但却至关重要的援助网络的需求。


The Living Legacy of Helsinki	赫尔辛基的活遗产


VIENNA – Forty years ago, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe concluded with the signing of the Helsinki Final Act, a historic triumph of cooperation over conflict that set the stage for the end of the Cold War.	维也纳—四十年前，欧洲安全与合作会议（Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe）促成了赫尔辛基最终决议（Helsinki Final Act），这是一次历史性胜利，合作战胜了冲突，并为冷战的结束搭好了舞台。


The accord represented a revolutionary approach to comprehensive security, as well as to bilateral and multilateral relations.	该决议代表了革命性的全面安全方针和双边和多边关系方针。


Its signatories recognized a direct link between political and military issues and human rights concerns – and that this link is a fundamental component of peace and security.	其签署国承认政治与军事问题和人权问题之间的直接联系——并且认为该联系是和平与稳定的根本要素。


That is why, when Serbia was entrusted to lead the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which grew from the Helsinki conference, this year, we were looking forward to celebrating the accord’s many achievements on its 40th anniversary.	因此，当今年塞尔维亚有幸领导从赫尔辛基会议衍生而来的欧安组织时，我们准备在该决议成立四十年之际庆祝它的诸多成就。


But, with the resurgence of armed conflict in Europe challenging the Helsinki Final Act’s fundamental principles, this anniversary has taken on new meaning.	但是，欧洲武装冲突的重现挑战了赫尔辛基最终决议的基本原则，这给四十周年纪念增添了新的意义。


The crisis in Ukraine has, in fact, underscored the Final Act’s enduring relevance.	事实上，乌克兰危机彰显出赫尔辛基最终决议的长久重要性。


Indeed, the only way to reconsolidate European security is to reach a durable settlement based on its principles; indeed, had those principles been respected, the current crisis in Ukraine would not have occurred in the first place.	事实上，重振欧洲安全的唯一办法是达成基于决议原则的持久和解； 事实上，如果这些决议的原则得到尊重，当前的乌克兰危机根本不应该发生。


It is now apparent that the roots of that crisis are far deeper than anyone initially realized.	如今，显而易见这场危机的根源比所有人最初所认为的都要深远得多。


Well before the turmoil in Ukraine erupted, the East-West divide, which our predecessors worked hard to close in Helsinki, had begun to reemerge.	乌克兰动荡爆发前很久，我们的前辈在赫尔辛基努力弥合的东西分裂之势便已开始重现。


A growing sense of mistrust and hostility, together with a diminishing commitment to the OSCE’s brand of comprehensive security, was hindering cooperation in various areas.	日益增长的不信任和敌对情绪，以及欧安组织全面安全声誉的下降，阻碍了诸多领域的合作。


Constructive engagement on security issues had been difficult for some time, reflected in a lack of progress on arms control and other key areas of the OSCE agenda.	安全问题的建设性参与在相当长一段时间内相当困难，反映在武器控制和其他欧安组织日程关键领域迟迟缺乏进展中。


The emergence of the crisis in and around Ukraine has only made these challenges more profound, and the search for a solution more urgent.	乌克兰国内和周边危机的爆发只是让这些挑战变得更加深远，让寻找解决方案变得更加紧迫。


The high-level Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project, established at the Basel Ministerial Council by last year’s Swiss OSCE chairmanship, provided invaluable insights when they presented their Interim Report on European security at the Munich Security Conference Core Group Meeting in Vienna this week.	在去年欧安组织主席国瑞士的领导下，巴塞尔部长委员会（Basel Ministerial Council）成立了高规格的欧洲安全共同工程杰出人物小组（Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project），该小组在本周的维也纳慕尼黑安全会议核心小组会议（Munich Security Conference Core Group Meeting）上递交了中期报告（Interim Report），提出了深刻的洞见。


The report focuses on the lessons of the OSCE’s engagement in Ukraine, and part of the solution is reflected in the Panel’s title; European security is, indeed, a common project.	报告以欧安组织在乌克兰行动的教训为重点，而解决方案的一部分就体现在该小组的名称中； 欧洲安全诚然是一项共同工程。


The OSCE could play a pivotal role, serving, like the Helsinki conference 40 years ago, as a platform to overcome the existing divide, restore trust, and rebuild a cooperative approach to common security concerns.	欧安组织可以扮演中心角色，就像四十年前的赫尔辛基会议那样提供一个平台克服现有分歧，重塑信任，重新构建针对共同安全问题的合作性方针。


The most visible aspects of the OSCE response to the crisis in and around Ukraine have been carried out by the Trilateral Contact Group and the Special Monitoring Mission.	在欧安组织应对乌克兰国内和周边危机的行动中，最显眼的部分是三方联络小组（Trilateral Contact Group）和特别监控任务（Special Monitoring Mission）。


Yet the entire OSCE toolbox has been mobilized to mitigate the crisis, as well as to support other critical steps, including constitutional reform, the protection of ethnic minority rights, and political dialogue and reconciliation.	但欧安组织的全套工具箱都被动员起来缓解危机和支持其他关键措施，包括宪政改革、保护少数民族权利、政治对话和妥协等。


As the only regional platform that brings all of the key stakeholders to the table, the OSCE plays a vital role in keeping the lines of communication open and finding opportunities for joint action.	作为让所有关键相关利益方一起来到谈判桌前的唯一一个地区级平台，欧安组织在保持沟通渠道开放和寻找联合行动机会方面起着关键作用。


Given our good relations with all the key stakeholders in the crisis, Serbia can contribute to the process.	塞尔维亚与危机各关键相关利益方都有着良好的关系，可以为这一进程做出贡献。


Our chief objectives are preventing the crisis from escalating into a larger conflict, ensuring a sustainable political process, and preserving the inclusive and cooperative nature of the OSCE’s work.	我们的主要目标是阻止危机演变为更大规模的冲突、确保可持续的政治进程以及保持欧安组织工作的包容性和合作性。


There is little doubt that de-escalation on the ground and visible progress in the Trilateral Contact Group – and the four working groups operating under its auspices – would set the stage for renewed discussions on broader European security issues and the future role of the OSCE.	毫无疑问，冲突局势的缓和与三方联络小组——以及其下四个工作组——取得看得见的进展将为重新开始关于广泛的欧洲安全问题和欧安组织的未来角色的讨论打下基础。


Given the obvious imperative for cooperative solutions to address transnational and global security threats, this could not be more important.	显然，合作性方案是解决跨国和全球安全冲突的关键，因此这非极其重要。


Simply put, without a shared approach to security and a dedicated joint response, overcoming our current challenges will be virtually impossible.	简言之，没有共同的安全方针和全力合作反应，克服当前挑战就是痴人说梦。


And, in fact, the situation could worsen considerably, with so-called “frozen” conflicts heating up and reverting to armed confrontation.	而事实上，局面可能大大恶化，所谓的“冻结的”冲突可能升温，重新演变为武装对峙。


As growing instability exacerbates social tensions, ethnic conflict, radicalization, and violent extremism become increasingly likely.	随着日益增长的不稳定加剧社会动荡，种族冲突、激进化和暴力极端主义的可能性也会日益增加。


The East-West divide that leaders in Helsinki confronted in 1975 was much wider than the one that that exists today.	1975年赫尔辛基会议上领导人所面临的东西分歧远比今天更大。


Yet, with courage and commitment, they managed to produce a pragmatic compromise based on a set of key principles – a compromise that opened the way for far-reaching cooperation and, indeed, the emergence of today’s interconnected and interdependent world.	但是，他们凭借勇气和承诺成功地在一系列关键原则的基础上形成了务实的妥协——这一妥协开启了意义深远的合作，事实上也促成了当今互相联系、互相依存的世界的形成。


Today’s leaders must show similar wisdom and vision, supporting the OSCE’s efforts to revitalize the principles of the Helsinki accord.	今天的领导人必须拿出类似的智慧和远见，支持欧安组织振兴赫尔辛基决议原则的努力。


This will require increased investment of both financial resources and political capital – and a shared commitment to put that investment to good use.	这需要增加金融资源和政治资本投资——以及���这些投资用于实处的共同承诺。


Serbia, a post-conflict society built on a series of compromises, is well placed to coordinate Europe’s much-needed security dialogue during its chairmanship of the OSCE – an organization that helped us through our own transition.	塞尔维亚便是建立在冲突后的一系列妥协基础上的社会，十分适合在担任欧安组织主席国期间协调欧洲所急需的安全对话——我们的转型便是在欧安组织的帮助下实现的。


What better advocate is there than one who speaks with conviction gained from personal experience?	最好的倡议者莫过于从亲身经历获得确信的人。


The Helsinki principles do not need to be reconsidered; on the contrary, they need to be reaffirmed, strengthened, and safeguarded.	赫尔辛基原则不需要重新考虑； 相反，它们需要得到确认、强化和捍卫。


The platform is already in place.	平台已经搭好。


Let us get to work – together.	让我们开始工作——齐心协力工作。


The Unsustainability of Organic Farming	有机农业的不可持续性


STANFORD – “Sustainable” has become one of the buzzwords of the twenty-first century.	斯坦福—“可持续”已成为二十一世纪流行词之一。


Increasing numbers of universities offer courses or even programs in “sustainability,” and many large companies boast substantial departments devoted to the subject.	越来越多的大学开始开设关于“持续性”的课程甚至专业，许多大公司也以成立庞大的“可持续”相关部门为荣。


In April, many of the iconic multinational companies in the agriculture/food sector were represented at a three-day “Sustainable Product Expo,” convened by Wal-Mart – the largest retailer in the United States – at its Arkansas headquarters.	4月，许多农业/食品行业的标志性跨国公司参加了由美国最大零售商——沃尔玛公司在其堪萨斯总部举行的“可持续产品博览会”（Sustainable Product Expo）。


But, as with many vague, feel-good concepts, “sustainability” contains more than a little sophistry. For example, sustainability in agriculture is often linked to organic farming, whose advocates tout it as a “sustainable” way to feed the planet’s rapidly expanding population.	但是，与许多感觉良好但模糊不清的概念一样，“可持续性”中包括了相当大的诡辩成分，比如，农业可持续性往往与有机农业挂钩，有机农业的支持者称之为用“可持续”方法养活迅速膨胀的世界人口。


But what does “sustainable” really mean, and how does it relate to organic methods of food production?	但“可持续”究竟是什么意思？ 它与“有机”食品生产方法有怎样的关系？


The organic movement’s claims about the sustainability of its methods are dubious.	有机运动宣称其方法具有可持续性，这一点颇可质疑。