By understanding that their world is changing – and that the likelihood of future disasters is increasing – these populations can build resilience and learn to adapt to the sudden and slow stresses of a changing climate.	通过理解世界正在变化——以及未来灾难可能性正在上升——这些人可以构建恢复力，并学会如何适应突发和缓慢的气候变化压力。


Second, education challenges apathy.	其次，教育能治愈冷漠。


Knowing the measures available to address climate change can open up vast opportunities for economic growth.	知道哪些手段可以用来遏制气候变化能为经济增长带来巨大的机会。


Global investors should be made to understand that sustainable solutions can increase wellbeing and create additional economic opportunities.	全球投资者必须明白，可持续方案能够增加福利，创造新的经济机会。


To take one example, in Niger, education and improved farming techniques helped double real farm incomes for more than one million people, while restoring huge tracts of severely degraded land.	比如，在尼日尔，教育和农作技术的改进帮助一百多万人的务农真实收入提高了一倍，还修复了大量严重退化的土地。


In the US, as of 2014, there were more jobs that depended on solar energy than on coal mining.	在美国，2014年太阳能相关就业岗位数量已经超过了煤炭。


Still, many people insist that implementing measures to mitigate the effects of climate change is too costly to our current way of life.	但是，仍有许多人坚持认为实施减轻气候变化影响的措施对于我们当前的生活方式来说成本太高。


According to the Pew study, almost seven out of ten people believe that, given the limitations of technology, they would have to make major lifestyle changes.	据皮尤研究，几乎七成人相信，考虑到技术的极限，我们将不得不做出重大生活方式变化。


This does not have to be the case, and education can challenge the kind of skepticism that forecloses opportunities for climate-smart living.	未必如此，教育可以反驳否定气候智能（climate-smart）生活机会的怀疑派。


Finally, education furnishes the technical knowledge needed to build a better future through innovation – one that includes clean and safe energy, sustainable agriculture, and smarter cities.	最后，教育提供技术知识，从而让我们能够通过创新构建更美好的未来——包括清洁和安全的能源、可持续农业和更加智能的城市。


Broadening access to education would lead to more homegrown innovation – entrepreneurs spotting opportunities to address local problems.	扩大教育普及度将带来更多本土创新——企业家寻找解决本地问题的机会。


Globally, we cannot rely on knowledge centers such as Silicon Valley or Oxford to develop a silver bullet to the climate problem.	全球而言，我们无法依靠硅谷或牛津等知识中心制定气候变化灵药。


Solutions may come from tech hubs, but they will also come from villages and developing cities, from farmers and manufactures with vastly different perspectives on the world around them.	解决方案可以来自各个枢纽，但它们也将来自村庄和发展中城市，来周边前景各异的农民和制造商。


And this will create a virtuous cycle.	这将形成一个良性循环。


It is easier for educated people to migrate and integrate into new societies, sharing the knowledge they’ve brought with them.	教育人们移居和融入新社会、分享他们所带来的知识将变得更加容易。


Fortunately, younger generations today are better educated and more committed to reducing their own carbon footprint than previous generations were.	幸运的是，今天的年轻一代比此前的几代人受过更好的教育，也更重视降低自身的碳足迹。


They are leading the way and forcing us all to reconsider our own actions.	他们正在起着领导作用，并迫使我们重新思考我们的行为。


But we must broaden the availability of education worldwide to ensure that their efforts are not in vain.	但我们必须加强全世界教育普及度，以确保他们的努力不会白费。


In recognition of education’s importance, the government of Norway, under the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Erna Solberg, has established the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity, of which I am a member.	认识到教育的重要性，挪威政府在首相索尔贝格极具远见卓识的领导下成立了国际全球教育机会融资委员会（International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity），我也忝列其中。


We will meet this week in Oslo, and it is my hope that we will confront the challenges of our time and act on the knowledge that education is the best problem-solving asset we possess.	本周，我们将在奥斯陆聚集一堂，我希望我们能直面我们的时间挑战，理解教育是我们所拥有的最优质的问题解决资产，并据此行动。


Addressing the dangers of climate change is not only an existential imperative; it is also an opportunity to move toward a cleaner, more productive, and fairer path of development.	消除气候变化的危险不但是一项生存要求，也是一个通往更清洁、更有生产率、更公平的发展路径的机会。


Only an educated global society can take the decisive action needed to get us there.	唯有受过教育的全球社会才能采取需要的决定性行动实现这一目标。


The Next Migrant Wave	下一次难民潮


MANILA – Imagine that you are a farmer.	马尼拉—想象你是一位农民。


Your crops are withering as weather patterns become more volatile, your well water is too salty to drink, and rice is too expensive to buy at the market.	你的庄稼因为降水波动变得剧烈而歉收，你的井水太咸无法饮用，市场上的大米太贵你买不起。


So, you leave home in search of a better life.	于是你离开家园寻找更好的生活。


Millions of people in vulnerable communities around the world do not have to imagine such a scenario.	全世界有数百万生活在脆弱社区的人不需要想象这样的情景。


They are living it now, as an increasingly unpredictable climate takes its toll; and their numbers are likely to soar as the effects of climate change intensify.	他们就生活在这样的情景中，他们是日益难以预测的气候的受害者； 而随着气候变化效应的加剧，他们的数量有可能急剧增加。


But the world is even less prepared for these future climate migrants than Europe is for the current wave of people fleeing from the Middle East and North Africa.	但世界对于这些未来气候移民的准备还不如欧洲对眼下从中东和北非蜂拥而入的人潮。


Most climate migrants will relocate within their own borders, but others will have no choice but to seek refuge abroad.	大部分气候移民都在国内迁徙，但也有一些别无选择，只能寻求成为海外难民。


If sea levels rise by more than one meter, entire populations of Pacific-atoll and reef-island countries might have to relocate.	如果海平面继续上升超过一米，太平洋岛礁和珊瑚礁国家的全体人口都需要重新安置。


If it is well planned and managed, migration can help people adapt to such threats.	如果有良好的规划和管理，移民可以帮助人们适应这些威胁。


But if it is not, it can lead to humanitarian crises.	但如果得不到良好的规划和管理，就有可能导致人道危机。


Overall, today’s policies are inadequate.	总体而言，当下的政策不够充分。


Source and destination countries urgently need to make it easier and safer for people to move, or to remain where they are if they cannot afford or choose not to leave.	来源和目的国都急需让人们的迁徙——或在无力或选择不迁徙时留在原地生活——变得更容易、更安全。


Climate change will be one of many factors fueling future migration waves.	气候变化将成为助长未来移民潮的诸多因素之一。


Although it will become increasingly difficult to distinguish between people fleeing from environmental factors and those who have left for other reasons, we know that climate will play a larger role in migration, as slow-onset threats such as erosion and acute hazards such as cyclones threaten more people’s livelihoods.	尽管一个人是因为环境因素还是其他原因而背井离乡已经越来越难以辨别，但我们知道气候将在移民问题上扮演更重要的角色，因为土壤流失等发展缓慢的威胁和龙卷风等急性风险正在威胁越来越多的人的生计。


Most of the people at risk live in Asia, which is uniquely exposed to the effects of climate change.	大部分高危人群生活在亚洲，亚洲也是最容易受气候变化影响的地区。


Nine of the ten countries with the most people living in low-lying areas (who are therefore threatened by flooding, storm surges, salinity, and erosion) are in Asia, owing to mass migration to megacities in recent decades.	拜近几十年来大量人口向大城市集中的趋势所赐，在大部分人口生活在低海拔地区（因而受到洪水、风暴潮、咸潮和水土流失的威胁）的十个国家中。


A recent study forecasts that Asia’s low-elevation population could double by 2060, to 983 million, from its level in 2000, thus accounting for 70% of the world’s total.	一份最新研究预测，到2060年，亚洲低海拔人口将较2000年翻一番，达到9. 83亿，占世界低海拔人口的90%。


Elsewhere in the region, water stress from reduced rainfall, salinity, glacial retreat, and desertification will hit water stocks, threaten livelihoods, and drive up food and water prices.	在该地区的其他国家，因为降水量减少、咸潮、冰川消融和沙漠化而导致的用水压力将影响到水存量，威胁到人的生计，推高粮食和水的价格。


These drastic scenarios might not materialize if the world succeeds in mitigating climate change.	如果世界成功地减轻气候变化，这些重大变故可能不会成为现实。


But no country should be complacent.	但各国都不能自满。


Asian countries, especially, should prepare for worst-case scenarios, and implement far-sighted national policies, such as Kiribati’s “migration with dignity” program, which provides education and vocational training to citizens of the low-lying Pacific island state to improve their chances of finding decent work abroad.	特别是亚洲国家一定要为最糟糕情景做好准备，并实施具有远见的国家政策，如基里巴斯的“有尊严地移民”计划，该计划为这个低海拔太平洋岛国公民提供教育和职业培训，以增加他们出国后找到体面工作的机会。


Preparations for any future scenario in Asia will require more complete data to judge the potential impact and timing of climate-related events, and to assess their effect on migration patterns.	为亚洲的未来情景做好准备，需要更加完整的数据判断气候相关事件的可能时间和影响，并评估对移民模式造成的效应。


Country-specific data would allow individual governments to hone their policies.	各国的具体数据能让各国政府磨合它们的政策。


This includes more thorough national censuses, which too often disregard marginalized communities like slum-dwellers.	这包括更加彻底的国家人口普查，这类调查常常忽视贫民窟等边缘化社区。


Censuses should be conducted inclusively, fed into national databases to monitor progress and identify vulnerable populations, and shared across the region.	人口普查应该是包容性的，以此为基础建立国家数据库监测进展、辨别脆弱人口并与地区共详细信息。


Governments should educate their citizens about the effects of climate change, in order to prepare those who want to stay or cannot afford to leave.	政府应该教育公民气候变化有哪些影响，从而让希望留下或无力迁徙的人做好准备。


Migrant source countries should have national disaster risk assessments (so that they can plan for potential losses), comprehensive hazard maps, and disaster early-warning systems to reassure their citizens.	移民来源国应该具备国家灾害风险评估（以便为潜��损失做好规划）、完整的风险地图以及灾难早期预警，以使公民有安全感。


And new houses, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, such as water systems, should be built to withstand extreme weather.	应该建设新房屋、道路、桥梁和其他基础设施（如供水系统）以抵御极端天气。


At the same time, governments should provide access to portable benefits for those people who do leave, so that they can support themselves abroad.	与此同时，政府应该为确实离开家园的人提供可转移福利，以使他们能够在国外维持生活。


And destination countries should consider providing emergency employment for displaced workers, using Australia and New Zealand’s seasonal worker programs as a model.	目的国应该考虑为流离失所的工人提供应急就业，澳大利亚和新西兰的季节性工人计划就是榜样。


Destination countries could also establish urban work and training centers for incoming migrants, many of whom will lack the skills required to land city jobs; and they should recognize the qualifications of those who do have expertise, and help them to find work.	目的国还可以建立城市工作和培训中心为即将到来的移民服务，后者普遍缺少从事城市岗位所需要的技能； 拥有专业技能的人的资质也应该得到承认，并获得应聘帮助。


It will be essential for destination countries to invest in sustainable infrastructure and basic services for new arrivals.	目的国投资于可持续基础设施和为新来者提供的基础服务至关重要。


Some cities are hesitant to provide services, because they fear it will attract new migrants.	一些城市对于提供服务犹豫不决，因为担心这会引来新的移民。


But this attitude only forces migrants into slums, which creates even bigger problems.	但这样的态度只能迫使移民进入贫民窟，从而制造更大的问题。


A better approach is to steer migrants from vulnerable rural areas to nearby medium-size cities equipped with the necessary services to absorb them; this, in turn, will prevent megacities from growing unsustainably.	更好的方法是将移民从脆弱的农村地区引导到具备必要条件、能够吸收他们的中型城市周边； 而这反过来又能防止大城市不可持续地增长。


A comprehensive approach along these lines would help to make migration part of the solution to climate change, not just another of its harmful effects.	根据这些原则制定的全面的计划有助于让移民成为气候变化解决方案的一部分，而不是沦为气候变化的消极效应的一部分。


Many countries will need funding to implement such plans, and, encouragingly, the 2015 Paris climate agreement established a taskforce to address climate-related displacement.	许多国家需要资金支持这些计划的实施，令人鼓舞的是，2015年巴黎气候协定成立了一个工作组解决气候相关的流离失所问题。


One of its main goals should be to ensure that funding mechanisms for climate-change adaptation encompass migration issues.	其主要目标之一应该放在确保气候变化适应的融资机制将移民问题也考虑在内。


For now, we need a more energetic global discussion on this pressing issue.	至于现在，我们需要对这一紧迫问题进行跟大力度的全球讨论。


Whether climate-induced migration brings relief or chaos will depend on the policies and investments we agree to today.	气候导致的移民带来了缓解还是混乱取决于我们今天所达成的政策和投资协议。


We should act now to give vulnerable communities a say in their future.	我们应该从现在开始行动起来，让脆弱社区能够决定他们的未来。


Growth in the New Climate Economy	新气候经济中的增长


MILAN – Action to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions and mitigate climate change has long been viewed as fundamentally opposed to economic growth.	米兰—长期以来，降低二氧化碳排放量、遏制气候变化的行动被认为与经济增长存在根本矛盾。


Indeed, the fragility of the global economic recovery is often cited as a justification to delay such action.	事实上，全球经济复苏十分脆弱常常被用于论证推迟这些行动的论据。


But a recent report, “The New Climate Economy: Better Growth, Better Climate” released by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, refutes this reasoning.	但全球经济和气候委员会（Global Commission on the Economy and Climate,）的最新报告《新气候经济：更好的增长、更好的气候》（The New Climate Economy: Better Growth, Better Climate）驳斥了这一说法。


Far from being a detriment to economic growth, the report concludes that efforts to combat climate change could boost growth considerably – and relatively soon.	该报告指出，对抗气候变化的努力不但不会阻挠经济增长，反而可以极大地起到提振作用——并且这一天很快就会到来。


Anyone who has studied economic performance since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, understands that damage to balance sheets – such as excess debt and unfunded non-debt liabilities – can cause growth slowdowns, sudden stops, or even reversals.	只要你研究过2008年金融危机爆发以来的经济表现就会明白，资产负债表伤害——如过度负债和得不到融资的非债务责任——可能导致增长放缓、突然停止甚至逆转。


And those familiar with growth in developing countries know that underinvestment in human capital, infrastructure, and the economy’s knowledge and technology base eventually produces balance sheets that cannot support continued growth.	而熟悉发展中国家增长的人都明白，人力资本、基础设施和经济知识和技术基础投资不足是形成无法支持持续增长的资产负债表的最终原因。


Climate change is not very different from these unsustainable or defective growth patterns.	气候变化和这些不可持续或有缺陷的增长模式并无多大差别。


It, too, is essentially a balance-sheet problem, based on the stock of CO2 in the atmosphere	它从本质上也是资产负债表问题，其基础是大气中的二氧化碳存量。


On its current trajectory, the world has only 3-4 decades (or less) before atmospheric CO2 reaches levels that disrupt climate patterns, with catastrophic consequences for the environment and, in turn, economic and social systems.	按照当前轨迹，在经历三四十年（或更少），大气中的二氧化碳水平就将达到破坏气候模式的程度，给环境造成灾难性后果，进而威胁经济和社会系统。


Allowing the world’s “natural capital” – the resources and ecosystems that underpin these systems – to be depleted is essentially another form of destructive underinvestment.	放任世界的“自然资本”——支持经济和社会系统的资源和生态系统——耗尽本质上无非是另一种形式的破坏性投资不足。


The massive amount of scientific evidence supporting current climate projections makes it unlikely that the world will forego adjustment entirely.	大量支持当前气候预测的科学证据表明，世界不可能完全放弃调整。


But solving the complex coordination and distributional problems that such adjustments will generate will not be easy, and, convinced that we cannot afford an aggressive mitigation strategy at a time when we are faced with so many other pressing challenges, policymakers could be tempted to defer action on the ground.	但解决调整所产生的复杂的合作和分配问题决非易事，而在认定我们在面临如此之多的其他紧迫挑战时无法承受激进的遏制气候变化战略的情况下，决策者可能会推迟行动。


“The New Climate Economy” argues that this would be a very bad idea.	《新气候经济》指出这是个非常坏的主意。


The report’s thorough assessment of recent research, experience, and innovation led to the unambiguous conclusion that acting now would be far less costly than waiting.	该报告对最新研究、经验和创新做了彻底评估，得出了一个明确的结论——现在行动的成本远比等待低。


In fact, acting now is barely costly at all.	事实上，现在行动几乎不会产生任何成本。


Low-carbon paths of economic growth do not look all that different from high-carbon paths – until the latter veers sharply to the precipice of catastrophic failure.	低碳经济增长路径和高碳路径并非完全不同——除非后者迅速走向崩溃式失灵。


Put another way, the net costs of reducing CO2 emissions – in terms of growth, income, and other measures of economic and social performance – are not all that high in the short and medium term.	换言之，降低二氧化碳排放量的成本——用增长、收入和其他经济和社会表现指标衡量——在短期和中期并不十分高昂。


Given what we know now about the consequences of the high-carbon path for the natural environment and, in turn, health outcomes and quality of life, those costs could actually be negative.	我们现在已经知道高碳增长路径对自然环境造成的后果以及反过来对生活质量的影响，这些成本实际可能为负值。


But there is an important proviso: action must be taken urgently.	但有一个重要的附带条件：必须立刻采取行动。


The economic costs of action to mitigate climate change rise non-linearly as action is delayed.	遏制气候变化的行动的经济成本会因为拖延而呈现非线性升高。


If those costs are deferred for 15 years or more, mitigation targets will be impossible to achieve, at any cost.	如果推迟15年或以上，遏制目标就无法实现，不管付出多大成本。


So how do we move onto the low-carbon path?	那么，我们如何走上低碳增长路径？


The report points out the benefits of constructing the energy-efficient buildings and infrastructure needed to underpin the low-carbon global economy of 2050, incorporating low-carbon strategies into municipal-planning processes, and tapping the efficiency-enhancing potential of the Internet.	报告指出，在2050年前建设作为低碳全球经济基础的高能源效率建筑和基础设施、将低碳战略纳入市政规划过程以及充分利用互联网在增强效率方面的潜力能带来诸多裨益。


Add to that the declining costs of alternative energy sources and relentless technological advancement, and the world’s carbon-reduction goals do not seem so distant – or costly.	除此之外，替代能源资源成本将不断下降，技术进步层出不穷，世界减碳目标其实并不遥远，也并不成本高昂。


After evaluating the technologies, policy options, and analysis included in the report, one might conclude that low-carbon growth paths may be slightly flatter in the short term than their high-carbon counterparts, with higher investment and lower consumption.	在评估了报告中所包括的技术、政策选择和分析后，你会得出一个结论：低碳增长路径在短期或许比高碳路径略低，投资更高，消费更低。


Nonetheless, it would be difficult to deem them inferior, given their medium-to-long-term advantages.	尽管如此，你不能就此认为低碳路径较劣，因为低碳路径拥有中长期优势。


The report also sheds light on another important question in the climate debate: Is global cooperation critical to mitigate climate change?	报告还提出了气候争论中的另一个重要问题：全球合作对遏制气候变化是否关键？


For a given economy, does acting alone yield distinctly inferior growth paths – say, by damaging the competitiveness of its tradable sector?	对于给定经济体，单独行动是否会导致显著更劣的增长路径——比如破坏可贸易部门的竞争力？


If the answer is yes, international policy coordination would seem to be a necessary precondition for progress.	如果答案是肯定的，那么国际政策合作就似乎是遏制气候变化方面进步的必要前提。


This does not appear to be the case.	事实似乎并非如此。


A substantial portion of a national policy agenda that supports an individual country’s shift to a low-carbon growth path (boosting energy efficiency, for example) will not produce an economic slowdown; such an effort might even lead to higher growth rates than remaining on a high-carbon path would have delivered.	支持个体国家向低碳增长路径转型（比如提高能源效率）的国家政策日程有相当大一部分不会导致经济减速； 甚至有可能带来比保持高碳路径更高的增长。


On a first approximation, low-carbon paths are the dominant strategies, implying a completely different and far more favorable view of the incentive structures at work.	在最初的近似（first approximation）中，低碳路径是主要战略，并产生了完全不同也远远更加有利的起作用的激励结构观。


This means that, though international coordination will be an important factor in the long-term success of action to mitigate climate change, its complications need not – and should not – hold progress hostage.	这意味着，尽管国际合作将是遏制气候变化行动长期成功的重要因素，但其副作用并不一定——也不应该——威胁进展。


Given the difficulty of developing and implementing a global strategy, that is good news.	发展和实施全球战略是一件难事，因此这是一个好消息。


Scientific evidence has eliminated legitimate doubts about the scale of the risks that climate change poses.	科学证据已经打消了对气候变化所带来的风险规模的质疑。


Now, the Global Commission’s analysis has largely refuted the economic arguments for inaction.	如今，全球经济和气候委员会的分析又基本否定了不作为的经济理由。


Add to that growing public concern about climate change, and the conditions for decisive action may have arrived.	此外，公众对气候变化也日益关注，采取决定性行动的条件也许已经成熟。


The Climate Categorical Imperative	气候的绝对使命


CAPE TOWN – Nowadays, people are too often forced to choose between doing what is morally right and doing what is economically beneficial.	开普敦—如今，人们常常被迫在做道德正确之事和做经济有利可图之事中间做出选择。


Indeed, their options sometimes appear to be mutually exclusive, making the decision of which path to take exceedingly challenging.	事实上，他们的选择有时是互相排斥的，这让决定走哪条路变得无比艰难。


Sometimes, however, moral rectitude and economic interest merge, presenting an opportunity that must not be missed.	但是，有时，道德正确和经济利益是一致的，构成了不可错过的机会。


That is the case – from the perspectives of this Archbishop and former finance minister – with the world’s response to climate change.	在大主教图图（Desmond Tutu）和前财政部长曼努埃尔（Trevor Manuel）看来，世界对气候变化的反应就是如此。


The moral imperative is indisputable, as the effects of climate change – including extreme weather, temperature changes, and rising sea levels – are felt most keenly by the global poor, who have also benefited the least from the economic activities that cause it.	道德紧迫性是无可争议的，气候变化的影响——包括极端天气、气温变化和海平面上升——冲击最大的是全球贫困人口，他们也是从导致气候变化的经济活动中受益最少的人群。


Moreover, climate change could accelerate poverty and inequality in the future, meaning that, unless we address it in a timely manner, it will diminish – or even eliminate – future generations’ chances to achieve their development goals.	此外，气候变化可能加速贫困、加剧不平等，这意味着，除非我们能及时地解决这一问题，否则子孙后代实现发展目标奥的机会将日益渺茫甚至消失。


Making every effort to minimize climate change today is, quite simply, the right thing to do.	竭尽全力缩小今天的气候变化是一件绝对正确的事。


Fortunately, the economic benefits of addressing climate change are also clear.	幸运的是，解决气候变化的经济利益也十分明确。


After all, climate change carries significant economic costs – for example, those associated with more frequent and extreme weather events.	毕竟，气候变化造成了巨大的经济成本——比如频繁极端天气带来的损失。


Moreover, building a “green” economy, based on continued technological innovation, is the smartest and most efficient way to create new engines of sustainable growth and job creation for the next generation.	此外，以持续技术创新为基础构建“绿色经济”是为子孙后代创造可持续增长和就业岗位创造新引擎的最明智、最高效的办法。


Action at the individual, company, municipal, and national levels is crucial.	个人、公司、市政和国家层面的行动至关重要。


But the fact is that climate change is a global problem – and thus requires a global solution.	但事实是气候变化是一个全球问题——因��需要全球方案。


The most important tool the world has for doing the right thing – and reaping vast economic benefits – is a universal climate-change agreement.	世界所拥有的做正确之事——并收获巨大的经济收益——的最重要的工具是全球气候变化协定。


That is why world leaders must take the opportunity presented by the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris this December to develop a single global framework for action.	因此，全球领导人必须抓住12月巴黎联合国气候变化会议的机会，制定统一的全球行动框架。


In fact, world leaders already pledged to do so.	事实上，全球领导人已经在致力于这一方向了。


The UN Climate Change Conference in 2011 – initiated and hosted by South Africa – produced an agreement to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, no later than this year.	由南非发起和主办的年联合国气候变化会议形成了一个协议——尽快实施全球气候变化法律协议，最晚不能超过今年。


Important progress has been made since the Durban conference.	德班会议以来，我们取得了重要进展。


Last month, more than 30 countries – including the European Union’s members, Gabon, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, and the United States – submitted their post-2020 plans to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.	上个月，30多个国家——包括欧元区成员国、加蓬、墨西哥、挪威、俄罗斯、瑞士和美国——递交了2020年后温室气体减排计划。


In the coming weeks and months, this momentum will continue to build, as other countries – including, it is expected, major emerging economies like Brazil, China, and India – submit their commitments as well.	在未来几周和几个月中，进展还将继续获得动力，其他国家——预计将包括巴西、中国和印度等主要新兴经济体——也将提交它们的承诺。


But if the Paris meeting is to be successful – in terms of both fulfilling the moral imperative and capturing the economic benefits of confronting climate change – every participating country must submit its national contributions for the period beginning in 2020 as soon as possible.	但如果巴黎会议要想取得成功——既包括兑现道德使命，又包括抓住对抗气候变化的经济利益——所有参与国都必须尽快递交2020年后的国家承诺。


Furthermore, the final agreement must include an effective and ambitious plan for de-carbonization over the next 50 years.	此外，最终协议还必须包括关于未来50年的有效而宏大的去碳化计划。


The fact is that short- and medium-term commitments alone are simply inadequate to fulfill the pledge, made by the world’s governments in 2009 and reiterated in 2010, to cap the rise in global temperatures at 2° Celsius relative to the pre-industrial era.	事实是，短期和中期承诺根本不足以兑现世界各国政府2009年所做、2010年重申的将全球气温升温幅度限制在工业化前水平以上2℃以内的保证。


It is crucial to create – and adhere to – a progressive long-term emissions-reduction strategy that sends a clear signal to capital markets that governments are serious about confronting climate change.	一个关键点是制定——并遵守——累进的长期减排战略，向资本市场传递一个清晰的信号：政府对待气候变化的态度是严肃的。


Such a strategy could include, for example, incentives for investment in low-carbon solutions.	这一战略可以包括（比如）激励低碳方案投资。


With some $90 trillion dollars set to be invested in infrastructure globally over the next 15 years, the impact of such an approach could be considerable – if not decisive.	在未来15年终，全球基础设施投资预计将达90万亿美元，这一方针的影响力将是巨大的——甚至是决定性的。


The moral and economic imperatives to act on climate change could not be stronger.	在气候变化问题上有所作为具有无可争议的道德和经济收益。


Although the road ahead will be difficult, with new and unexpected challenges arising along the way, we can find inspiration in Nelson Mandela’s famous dictum: “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”	尽管前路坎坷，意料外的新挑战将不断出现，但我们可以从纳尔逊·曼德拉的名言中获得鼓舞：“任何事情在做成之前看上去都是不可能的。


We face an unprecedented opportunity to achieve a more sustainable, prosperous, and socially just future.	”我们面临着前所未有的机会实现更加可持续、更加繁荣、社会更加公正的未来。


Creating that future must start now.	创造这一未来必须从现在开始。


Climate Change Posers	气候变化的难题


COPENHAGEN – One of the stranger spectacles of the climate change debate was the sight, earlier this month, of NASA climate scientist Jim Hansen marching hand-in-hand with Hollywood actress Darryl Hannah outside the Capitol Coal Power Plant in Washington, DC.	哥本哈根—本月早些时候在华盛顿特区的国会燃煤发电厂外举行了一场关于气候变化的示威活动。 奇特的场景之一是你可以看到美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的气候学家吉姆·汉森和好莱坞的女演员达瑞尔·汉娜手拉手一起游行。


Hansen promised to brave arrest at what was billed as the world’s largest direct-action climate change protest.	在这场被称作是世界上针对气候变化采取的最大一次直接抗议行动中，汉森保证他会勇敢地面对逮捕。


Instead, the worst snowstorm in three years reduced the size of the crowd, prevented special guests from arriving, and hindered efforts to use a solar panel to light up a protest billboard.	然而，三年来的最大一次暴风雪削减了人群的数量，让特邀嘉宾法无法前来，也阻止人们采用太阳能电池来点亮抗议广告牌的努力。


The police reportedly told the crowd that they didn’t want to arrest anybody who didn’t want to be arrested, and nobody was.	警方反复告诉人群他们不想逮捕任何不打算被捕的人，结果没人被捕。


That didn’t stop the protesters from proclaiming the event a success.	尽管如此，抗议者依然宣称这次活动成功了。


“VICTORY: THIS IS HOW TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING,” declared the Web site of Capitol Climate Action.	国会气候行动的网页宣称：“胜利：这是如何阻止全球变暖的途径”。


And, indeed, the US House Speaker and Senate Majority Leader called on the Architect of the Capitol to stop using coal for the Capitol Power Plant (albeit days before the rally).	而且，美国国会发言人和参议院多数党领袖的确已经号召国会建筑师机构停止在国会燃煤发电厂里使用煤（尽管这发生在集会之前）。


But if stopping global warming were this easy, I – and everybody I know – would be painting placards for the next round of direct action.	但是如果阻止气候变暖是如此这般容易，我和我所认识的每一个人都愿意为了下一轮的直接行动而去画标语牌。


Hansen condemns coal-fired power plants as “death factories,” and his belief that coal is evil is widely shared.	汉森谴责燃煤发电厂是“死亡工厂”，他坚信煤是有害的，而且这种观点很有市场。


It is also obviously wrong.	不过这明显有错。


If we were to stop using coal tomorrow, we would discover that it remains a vital source of life.	假设我们明天停止使用燃煤，我们将会发现它依然是生活的重要资源。


Coal accounts for almost half of the planet’s electricity supply, including half the power consumed in the United States.	燃煤发电几乎占了全球电力供应的半壁江山，包括美国所消费的一半电力。


Coal keeps hospitals and core infrastructure running, provides warmth and light in winter, and makes life-saving air conditioning available in summer.	燃煤让医院和重点基础设施保持运转，在冬季里提供了热和光，使人们夏天可以享受必不可少的空调。


In China and India, where coal accounts for about 80% of power generation, it has helped to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.	中国和印度的燃煤发电占了发电总量的80%，已经帮助几亿人摆脱了贫困。


It is little wonder, then, that US Energy Secretary Steven Chu, who two years ago described the expansion of coal-fired power plants as his “worst nightmare,” now calls coal a “great natural resource.”	因此，美国能源部长朱棣文现在把燃煤称为一种“伟大的自然资源”并不奇怪，虽然两年以前他还把燃煤发电厂的扩张描述为自己“最糟糕的噩梦”。


The vital question is what would replace coal if were to stop using it.	重要的问题在于：如果停止使用燃煤，我们能用什么来取代？


Judging from their chant – “No coal, no gas, no nukes, no kidding” and “Biofuels - hell no!” – the protesters in Washington would rule out many plausible alternatives.	看看华盛顿抗议者们反复呼喊的口号吧：“不要燃煤，不要汽油，不要核能，不要欺骗”，“生物燃料—绝对不要”，显然他们将会排除许多可行的替代品。


Solar and wind power appear to be acceptable, but both are much less reliable than coal, and much more expensive.	看上去太阳能和风能可以被接受，然而这两种能源都远不如燃煤可靠，而且要昂贵得多。


Only about 0.5% of the world’s energy comes from these renewable sources.	世界能源只有大约0. 5%来源于这两种可再生的资源。


Even with optimistic assumptions, the International Energy Agency estimates that their share will rise to just 2.8% by 2030.	即使乐观设想，国际能源机构估计两者的份额也不过是在2030年上升为2. 8%而已。


One reason is that we don’t know how to store the energy from these sources: when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, what powers your computer or the hospital’s operating room?	原因之一是我们不知道如何贮存这些资源生成的能源：如果不刮风也不出太阳，什么能给你的计算机或是医院的手术室提供动力？


Moreover, renewables are still costly.	而且，可再生能源仍然价格不菲。


Recently, former US Vice President Al Gore and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon claimed that, “in the US, there are now more jobs in the wind industry than in the entire coal industry.”	最近，美国前副总统阿尔·戈尔和联合国秘书长潘基文宣布：“在美国，现在风能行业提供的工作比整个燃煤行业还要多。


Never mind that the numbers were massaged, because they still hold a valuable lesson.	”别介意数字被篡改了，因为他们还在学习重要的一课。


The US gets 50% of its electricity from coal but less than 0.5% from wind.	美国电力的50%来自燃煤，却只有不到0. 5%来自风能。


If it takes about the same manpower to produce both, wind power is phenomenally more expensive.	如果风力发电和燃煤发电使用相同的人力，那么前者还要昂贵许多。


The equivalent of more than 60 million barrels of oil is consumed in coal every day, and there is no affordable “green” alternative.	每天全世界消耗的燃煤等于6000多万桶原油，而且还没有人们可以负担的“绿色”替代品。


There is an ample and cheap supply of coal for several centuries.	好几个世纪以来，燃煤供应既充足又便宜。


We need to accept that much of the world’s cheap coal will be burned – but we should focus on capturing the CO2.	我们需要接受这样的事实：世界上许多便宜的燃煤将被烧掉，但是我们应该关注捕捉二氧化碳。


In agreements announced by the Obama administration, the US is working with China and Canada on projects to develop this technology.	在奥巴马政府宣布的协议中，美国正在与中国和加拿大展开合作，发展这种技术。


The end of fossil fuel’s stronghold will come when we have cheap alternatives, especially in developing countries.	当我们拥有便宜的替代物时，化石燃料的主导地位也就土崩瓦解了，在发展中国家尤其如此。


That day will arrive sooner if governments spend a lot more money on low-carbon energy research, which is woefully inadequate.	如果政府花费更多的钱来进行低碳能源研究，这一天就会来得更早。 令人悲哀的是，现在低碳能源的研究工作还很不完善。


Every nation should ideally commit to spending 0.05% of GDP exploring non-carbon-emitting energy technologies.	理想情况下，每个国家都应该把GDP的0. 05%用于探索无碳排放能源技术。


This would cost $25 billion per year – a 10-fold increase in global financing – and create momentum to recapture the vision of delivering a low-carbon, high-income world.	这样全球每年将会花费250亿美元，是现在出资总量的10倍。 这种举措还能为建设一个低碳高收入世界的远见再度创造动力。


Coal contributes strongly to global warming, but no amount of political theater can alter the inescapable fact that it also provides benefits that we cannot yet replicate with renewable energy.	燃煤在全球变暖中当然难辞其咎，但是政治上的戏剧效果再多，也改变不了一个无法回避的事实：燃煤也是大有裨益的，而且我们不能用可更新能源来取代这些益处。


Braving arrest with Hollywood stars is a diversion.	和好莱坞明星一起去勇敢面对逮捕是偏离了方向。


Declaring true victory over global warming will take a lot more pragmatism, and a lot more work.	想要宣布针对全球变暖取得了真正的胜利，就需要抱有更实际的态度，做多得多的工作。


Climate Change Realism	气候变化上的现实主义


NEW YORK – “Wonderful, Wonderful Copenhagen,” a popular song from the 1952 film musical “Hans Christian Andersen,” will probably be played many times this fall, as world leaders will be gathering in the Danish capital in December (and in New York in September) to confront the challenge of climate change.	发自纽约——《多么美妙的哥本哈根》，这首取自1952年音乐片《汉斯·克里斯丁·安德森》的流行歌曲在今年秋天或许将会被反复演奏无数次，因为全球各国领导人将于今年12月齐聚丹麦首都（9月时在纽约），一同面对气候变化所带来的挑战。


But, unless international thinking gets considerably more realistic in a hurry, what happens in Copenhagen will be anything but wonderful.	但除非国际社会能在短时间内采取更为现实一点的思维方式，否则的话，即将在哥本哈根发生的一切就将跟“美妙”一词无关。


It should come as no surprise that there is little consensus on a comprehensive accord that would have a meaningful impact on the world’s climate.	毫无意外，目前能够帮助促成一个全面性条约的共识少之又少，而没有这个条约，自然也谈不上能对世界气候有什么意义深远的影响。


Governments will not sacrifice near- and medium-term economic growth for long-term environmental benefits.	各国政府都不愿意牺牲眼前或者中期的经济增长来换取长期的环境效益。


This is especially true now, given that much of the developed world is in the midst of a painful recession.	而在大多数发达国家都正在经历一场痛苦的经济衰退之时，这更是明摆着的事实。


The United States, for one, will not accept ceilings that reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions significantly if it means accepting higher costs and taxes that risk slowing economic recovery.	对于作为发达国家一员的美国来说，如果削减温室气体排放所导致的高额成本和税收意味着降低经济复苏的速度，那么政府当然也不会接受强加于其身上的大幅减排限额。


Developing countries are, if anything, even more opposed to such ceilings or “caps.”	而发展中国家则更加反对这样的限制或“帽子”。


Four hundred million Indians still lack electricity; India cannot be expected to rule out greater use of coal if that proves to be the best way to produce electricity for one-third of its citizens.	有4亿印度人至今仍然用不上电； 因此也别指望印度会停止增加电煤的使用量，因为这是为其1/3国民提供电能的最好方式。


China, too, is unlikely to agree to “caps” on emissions of any kind, given the relatively low standard of living of most Chinese.	中国也很可能不会同意任何形式的减排“帽子”，因为大多数中国人还生活在相对较低的水平之中。


But such a stance dooms prospects for a new global treaty, as developed countries will rightly insist that poorer countries be part of the solution.	但这样的姿态实际上等于将各国缔结一个全新气候条约的希望判了死刑——因为发达国家无疑将坚持把欠发达国家纳入为解决方案的一部分。


The consequences of failure in Copenhagen could be considerable.	而如果哥本哈根会议失败的话，后果将是想当严重的。


In the short run, we may well see climate-related concerns become the newest excuse for increased trade protectionism.	短期来说，我们肯定将看到一系列和气候相关的担忧摇身一变，成为为逐渐增多的贸易保护主义辩护的最新口实。


So-called “carbon tariffs” are likely to be introduced to penalize imports from countries or companies deemed not to be doing enough to curb emissions.	那些被认为不能很好控制碳排放的国家和企业的出口货品将遭到所谓的“碳关税”的惩罚。


World trade is already down sharply as a result of the economic crisis; introducing new tariffs would inevitably reduce trade further, causing the loss of additional jobs and leading to new frictions.	而全球贸易额已经在经济危机中锐减的情况下，实施这类新关税无疑将进一步减少贸易，从而引起更多工作岗位流失并引发新的贸易摩擦。


Over time, a failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would lead to additional climate change, which in turn would increase the severity of poverty, the scale of internal displacement and migration, the scarcity of water, the prevalence of disease, and the number and intensity of storms.	随着时间一分一秒过去，人类无法降低温室气体排放的现实将导致一些额外的气候变化，这些变化又会反过来加剧贫困，导致更大规模的国内迁移和国际难民现象，加重水资源匮乏程度和疾病的传播，以及灾害性飓风的数量与强度。


The result could be more failed states and more conflict between states.	更多的国家将因此面临政府破产，而国与国之间的冲突也将不断增多。


Climate change is as much a matter of security as it is an economic and human concern.	至此气候变化已经不仅仅是经济学和人道主义层面的担忧，而更是一个事关全人类安全的问题。


So what should be done?	如此，我们到底应该做些什么？


The most important step for those preparing for Copenhagen is to embrace national policies that increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.	对于那些准备奔赴哥本哈根的人来说，最重要的一步就是要制定一系列提高能源利用率和减少温室气体排放的国内政策。


The US has at long last done some of this in adopting new and much higher standards for automobile fuel efficiency.	比如美国就最终制定了有关汽车燃油利用率的更高标准。


Regulatory policy can increase the efficiency of appliances, housing, and machinery.	这些规范政策可以提高家用电器，住宅和机械的能源效率。


Such reforms should appeal to rich and poor countries alike, as they would reduce spending on energy and dependence on oil imports.	而这类改良对发达和发展中国家也同样适用，因为两者都可以降低能源花费并以此减少对进口石油的依赖。


Coordinated national actions are not the same as unilateralism.	而各国同时约定推行这类国内政策的举措并不仅仅等同于单边主义。


There is no unilateral answer to what is a global challenge.	因为在全球性的挑战面前，任何一个国家的单打独斗都是无效的。


But to describe a challenge as global is not to argue that the remedy is to be found only in an ambitious, formal, and universal treaty.	但把某项挑战定义为全球性挑战并不意味着就一定要用一项野心勃勃，整齐划一而��全球通行的条约来作为解决方案。


Such an accord might well be desirable, but it is simply not an option for climate change any time soon.	这样的条约可能非常完美，但在短期内都难以成为应对气候变化的一个选项。


The goal for the representatives of the nearly 200 countries who will meet in Copenhagen should not be a single sweeping agreement so much as a set of more modest agreements.	而来自200多个国家的代表齐聚哥本哈根，所追求的目标不应是签订一项波澜壮阔的大型条约，而是达成一系列更为温和渐进的小型协议。


Coal is one place to begin, as it will continue to generate the lion’s share of the world’s electricity for decades to come.	在此煤炭问题可以作为一个出发点，因为在未来数十年内燃煤发电量都将依然占据全球总发电量的大头。


Greater sharing of existing cleaner-coal technologies is needed, as is continued development of next-generation clean-coal plants.	因此各国有需要更广泛地分享当今的清洁煤技术，并在继续发展下一代清洁煤发电机组上通力合作。


Nuclear power is another area requiring attention.	而核能发电则是另一块值得注意的领域。


So, too, are renewable forms of power, such as solar and wind.	而太阳能和风能这类可再生能源也值得关注。


Here, too, mechanisms are needed for sharing new technologies and helping poorer countries pay for them in exchange for adopting policies that reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.	在此必须建立一项的机制，让国际社会可以分享新科技手段，并协助穷国通过采用减少温室气体排放政策的方式来抵偿和支付这种新科技所需的费用。


Moreover, stopping the destruction of forests is essential, given how much carbon is trapped in them.	此外，有必要立刻停止对森林的破坏，因为大量的碳就是保留在林木内部的。


One objective for Copenhagen should be to create a well-endowed global fund to support policies that discourage the cutting and burning of trees, help countries such as Brazil and Indonesia protect their rain forests, and provide alternative livelihoods to those who currently benefit from destroying them.	而哥本哈根会议的一个目标则是创设一个捐款充裕的国际基金来资助那些限制砍伐和焚烧树木的政策，协助巴西和印尼这类国家保护其雨林，并协助那些靠毁林为生的人们寻找其他生计。


Focusing on steps such as these would go a long way toward attaining the often-discussed goal of halving global carbon emissions by mid-century.	即便对上述举措的关注可能要花费相当长的时间，才能达到人们经常挂在嘴边的那个在本世纪中期实现全球碳排放减半的目标。


But reaching an accord that sets binding ceilings for what each country will be allowed to emit is not an option in Copenhagen. The consensus simply does not exist.	但哥本哈根会议的选择不应该是达成一个明确规定各个国家排放限额的条约，因为达成这一条约的基本共识根本就不存在。


Smaller steps, however, can and should be taken.	而一些小的步骤则是可行而且可以采用的。


Those who want to master the challenge of climate change now will reject such realism.	虽然那些试图一次性解决气候变化挑战的人会抗拒这种现实主义的态度。


But, as is often the case, those who insist on getting everything risk getting nothing.	但正如我们经常看见的那样，那些试图拥有一切的人，常常会落得一无所有。


A Green Alliance With Europe	与欧洲的绿色联盟


SANTIAGO/SAO PAULO – In December, world leaders will meet in Paris for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which is expected to produce a new agreement to tackle global warming.	圣地亚哥/圣保罗—12月，全球领导人将齐聚巴黎参加联合国气候变化会议。 预计在这次会议上将产生应对全球变暖的新协定。


But, in the run-up to the conference, heads of state and ministers will meet at various other related events.	但是，在巴黎会议召开前，各国首脑和部长将聚会讨论其他各种相关事件。


Having attended countless summits, we can attest that, if these other meetings are correctly prepared, and heads of state engage meaningfully in them, the prospects of success in Paris could be improved.	我们参与过无数峰会，可以说，这些其他会议准备合适，并且各国首脑带着诚意与会，巴黎会议成功的前景将会大增。


One such meeting in particular could be decisive: the June 10-11 bi-annual summit in Brussels between the European Union and the Community of Latin America and the Caribbean States (CELAC).	其中一次会议特别具有决定性：6月10日—11日在布鲁塞尔召开的欧盟和拉美及加勒比国家共同体（CELAC）双年峰会。


Efforts by Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean have set the groundwork for the world’s strongest bi-regional partnership on climate change.	欧洲和拉美及加勒比海的努力为全球最强大的地区级双边气候变化合作伙伴关系打下了基础。


Leaders in both regions have declared their commitment to holding the rise in global temperature to below 2º Celsius and to achieving legally binding outcomes in Paris.	两大地区领导人已承诺致力于将全球气温升温幅度限制在2℃以内并在巴黎取得具法律约束力的结果。


The EU and CELAC heads of state can – and should – forge a close alliance and capitalize on favorable political conditions to advance a progressive climate agenda, one that mandates their negotiators to push for a fair, equitable, and ambitious agreement in December.	欧盟和CELAC各国首脑可以——也应该——构建紧密联盟并利用有利政治条件推进气候议程的进展，授权其谈判代表在12月推动公正、公平、宏大的协定。


Together, the two regions represent nearly a third of the 195 parties that have signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and account for roughly 20% of global greenhouse-gas emissions.	欧盟和CELAC加起来占据联合国气候变化框架公约195个签约方的近三分之一和全球温室气体排放量的约20%。


Given soaring climate-related economic costs in Europe and Latin America, both sides have much to gain (and save) from a global regime that significantly reduces emissions and strengthens resilience to climate risks.	欧洲和拉美的气候相关经济成本正在快速上升，因此双方都能从大幅减少排放、增强气候风险抵抗力的全球机制中获益（和节省）良多。


This common sense of purpose is reflected in our regions’ policies.	这一目的共识反映在两大地区的政策中。


Latin America and the Caribbean are taking concerted action to help bringing down global emissions and could do much more with funding and technology transfers from developed countries.	拉美和加勒比地区正在采取统一行动帮助降低全球排放，如果有来自发达国家的资金和技术转移，我们可以做更多的事。


Brazil, for example, has drastically reduced deforestation in the Amazon – a major contribution.	比如，巴西大幅减少了亚马逊森林的采伐——这是一项重大进步。


Chile is on track to reach its goal of producing 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2025.	智利正在朝2025年新能源发电占比20%的目标前进。


And in 2012, Mexico enacted a climate-change law that aims to reduce emissions by 30% below their business-as-usual level by 2020, and by 50% by 2050.	而在2012年，墨西哥实施了气候变化法，旨在到2020年降低其基准排放水平30%，到2050年降低50%。


For its part, the EU is offering the strongest pledge yet for the Paris agreement: a reduction in domestic greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 40%, relative to their level in 1990, by 2030.	至于欧盟，它正在做出巴黎协定的最强承诺：到2030年将地区内温室气体排放量至少降低到1990年水平的60%。


This is in line with the EU’s long-term goal of reducing emissions by 80-95% (again, relative to the 1990 level) by 2050.	这与欧盟的长期目标——到2050年降低80—95%（也是相对1990年水平）的排放量相符。


The EU-CELAC summit can also benefit from diplomatic efforts within CELAC, which includes all of the region’s 33 countries.	欧盟-CELAC峰会也从CELAC内部的外交活动（包括该地区的所有33个国家）中获益。


A regional effort led by Brazil and Chile is promoting dialogue among CELAC countries to build trust, with the goal of identifying common positions for the UN climate negotiations.	由巴西和智利领导的一项地区措施正在推进CELAC个国家加强对话，构建信任，目标是在联���国气候谈判中形成共同立场。


CELAC has emphasized that a new global climate-change deal should treat adaptation and mitigation in a balanced manner.	CELAC强调新全球气候协议应该均衡地对待调整（adaptation）和减少（mitigation）。


In keeping with its commitment to the 2º C cap on the rise in global temperature, CELAC not only supports a legally binding agreement, but also calls for wealthy countries to meet their promises to provide developing countries with $100 billion per year in climate finance by 2020.	CELAC将继续致力于将全球升温幅度限制在2℃内，它不但支持具有法律约束力的协定，还呼吁富裕国家兑现承诺，到2020年每年为发展中国家提供1,000亿美元的气候融资。


Wealthy countries that have not complied with the emissions-reduction commitments enshrined in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol owe this debt to the planet.	没有兑现1997年京都议定书的减排承诺的富裕国家有愧于地球。


CELAC seeks rules to ensure the transparency and verification of countries’ climate actions, and calls on developed countries to increase their technology transfer and capacity-building efforts to support its member countries.	CELAC寻求确保透明度和证明各国气候行动合理性的规则，并呼吁发达国家增加技术转移和能力建设以支持CELAC成员国。


Latin American and the Caribbean countries can also use the upcoming summit in Brussels to reassure the EU that it is a valued partner.	拉美和加勒比地区国家还可以利用即将到来的布鲁塞尔峰会打消欧盟的疑虑，证明它是可贵的合作伙伴。


It can call on Europe to provide greater predictability of financial flows and alignment on climate and development objectives, especially to reduce inequality and poverty, boost clean energy, and build sustainable urban transport and other infrastructure.	CALEC可以要求欧洲提高金融流的可预测性，理顺气候和发展目标，特别是减少不平等和贫困、刺激清洁能源和建设可持续城市交通和其他基础设施。


Following the difficult climate negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009, we understand why some European leaders may be lowering expectations for the Paris talks.	2009年哥本哈根气候谈判艰难无比，这我们理解了为何一些欧洲领导人降低了巴黎谈判的预期。


They are understandably reluctant to expend too much political capital by calling for a far-reaching deal.	不难理解，他们不愿因为支持影响深远的协议而投入太多政治资本。


But, at a time when concern about global warming among citizens in both regions is growing, this is no time for indecisiveness.	但是，如今两大地区公民都开始日益担心全球变暖，因此不能再犹豫不决了。


European leaders should boldly show that they are committed to an ambitious outcome in Paris, and that Europe will enhance its support of CELAC climate actions.	欧洲领导人应该果断证明他们有决心在巴黎取得宏大结果，并且欧洲将增加其对CELAC气候行动的支持。


The Inter-American Development Bank estimates that CELAC can more than meet its future energy needs through renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, and geothermal.	泛美开发银行估计，CELAC可以通过新能源资源——包括太阳能、风能和地热能——轻松满足未来能源需求。


Indeed, such resources are sufficient to cover projected 2050 electricity needs 22 times over.	事实上，这些资源足以超过2050年预测电力需求22倍以上。


The EU can play a leading role in promoting renewable energy cooperation, in part by transferring technology that is adapted to our tropical conditions, which would support CELAC countries’ efforts to reduce emissions and pollution, increase their resilience to climate change, and create jobs.	欧盟可以在促进可再生能源合作方面起到领导作用，部分可以通过转移适用于热带条件的技术实现，这可以支持CELAC国家降低排放和污染、增加气候变化恢复力、增加就业的努力。


This type of enhanced cooperation and diplomacy could pay large dividends.	如此加强合作和外交能够带来巨大的红利。


Progress in Brussels next week would increase CELAC countries’ confidence, thereby encouraging them to offer the strongest-possible commitments – known technically as “intended nationally determined contributions” – in Paris.	在下周的布鲁塞尔所取得的进展将增加CELAC国家的信心，从而鼓励它们在巴黎做出尽可能大的国家贡献——用术语说，叫做“国家确定的意向贡献”。


More generally, a successful meeting in Brussels could help bring all sides closer together on thorny issues, such as the scale and scope of efforts that countries at different levels of development should make to address climate change.	更一般地，它们可以有助于所有各方在棘手问题上走得更近——比如发展阶段不同的国家应该采取怎样规模和范围的措施应对气候变化。


By forming an ambitious alliance – which could be enlarged to include other groups, such as the Alliance of Small Island States and the Least-Developed Countries group – EU and CELAC heads of state can contribute to setting the course that the world must follow to create a low-carbon, sustainable, and resilient future.	通过构建一个雄心勃勃的联盟——这个联盟可以有所扩大以包括其他组织，比如小岛国家联盟（Alliance of Small Island States）和最不发达国家集团（Group of Least-Developed Countries）——欧盟和CELAC各国首脑可以引导促进世界走向低碳、可持续、高恢复力的未来道路的必要条件。


We urge them to take the necessary steps in Brussels next week to achieve that goal.	从下周的布鲁塞尔开始，我们将敦促他们采取必要的措施实现这一目标。


Building Climate Trust	建立气候信任


WASHINGTON, DC – In less than 80 days, world leaders will have the opportunity to strike a once-in-a-generation agreement in the fight against climate change.	华盛顿——在不到80天时间里，世界领导人将有机会就气候变化斗争达成一项百年一遇的协议。


The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in December could mark a turning point in world history: unanimous recognition of the need to act to prevent the most harmful consequences of global warming.	12月将在巴黎举行的联合国气候变化大会可能标志着世界史的转折点：人们一致认同有必要采取行动，防止全球变暖最有害的后果。


But if a deal is to be secured, participants in the conference will have to overcome the mistrust that has led to polarization and inaction during past negotiations.	但如果想要达成协议，与会者在会上必须克服导致两极分化和过去谈判中不作为的不信任情绪。


Implementing an agreement with robust limits on greenhouse-gas emissions will first require honoring the commitments that have already been made, including promises by developed countries to spend $100 billion a year by 2020 to help the developing world mitigate its contribution to climate change and adapt to a warming world.	实施一项严格限制温室气体排放的协议将首先要求履行已经作出的承诺，包括发达国家承诺到2020年每年花费1000亿美元帮助发展中国家缓解气候变化和适应不断变暖的世界。


Given the scale of the challenge and the costs that inaction imposes on the world’s most vulnerable people, development financial institutions and other interested parties must demonstrate their commitment to preventing the most harmful effects of climate change.	鉴于挑战的规模和不作为将使世界最弱势群体付出的代价，发展金融机构和其他利益相关方必须证明他们坚决履行防止气候变化最严重后果的承诺。


Doing so requires a renewed – and transparent – dedication to the effort.	实现这一目标需要重新开始完全透明的努力。


That is why the World Bank Group is examining what more can be done to help put economies on a sustainable path.	世界银行集团因此正全力研究协助经济可持续发展还要做哪些工作。


Keeping a keen eye on the national plans being submitted ahead of the Paris summit, we are surveying the full spectrum of our work in order to find opportunities to help countries in the areas of energy, transport, agriculture, forests, urban management, and much more.	一直以来我们对巴黎首脑会议前提交的国家计划保持着密切关注，同时全方位地审视我们的工作，寻找能在能源、交通、农业、森林、城市管理等诸多领域帮助各国政府的机会。


Indeed, the fight against climate change must be carried out across a wide variety of fronts.	事实上，反对气候变化的斗争涉及各条战线。


Rising global temperatures and an increasingly unstable climate will influence all aspects of development and jeopardize existing investments unless adequate mitigation and adaptation strategies – which are also central to the new Sustainable Development Goals that the United Nations will adopt later this month – are put in place.	除非充分落实缓解和适应政策——这也是联合国本月晚些时候即将通过的全新可持续发展目标的核心——否则不断升高的全球温度和日益不稳定的气候将影响发展的一切领域并危及现有投资。


Part of this effort to fight climate change must involve addressing sources of economic inefficiency, such as fossil-fuel subsidies and inadequate accounting of the cost of pollution.	气候变化应对工作必须涉及解决经济效率低下的根源问题，比方说化石燃料补贴及污染成本核算不足。


And there is a growing recognition that development funds and climate finance can be used to spur and catalyze investment from public and private sources.	而且人们越来越清醒地认识到发展和气候资金可以用来刺激和促进公共和私营部门的投资。


But, above all, a successful climate deal will have to include proper measures for the management of the trillions of dollars that will need to be invested in low-carbon infrastructure and increased resilience to the harmful effects of rising global temperatures.	但最重要的是，一份成功的气候协议必须包括管理需要投资于低碳基础设施和增强人类对全球气温升高有害影响适应性的数万亿美元的适当举措。


This must be carried out in as public and transparent a fashion as possible.	实施方式必须做到尽可能的公开透明。


It is crucial that we ensure that financial flows being channeled into the fight against climate change can be tracked, so that citizens can hold their governments and institutions to account.	重要的是必须确保能够跟踪用于抗击气候变化的资金，以便民众能够要求他们的政府和机构负责。


In order to accomplish this, the six large multilateral development banks and the International Development Finance Club – a network of national, regional, and international development institutions – have been painstakingly working on developing common principles for tracking climate finance.	为了实现这一目标，六家大型多边开发银行和国际开发金融俱乐部——国家、地区和国际发展机构网络——一直煞费苦心地研究跟踪气候资金的共同原则。


These principles should apply to all projects intended to help countries adapt to or mitigate the impact of climate change.	这些原则应当适用于旨在帮助各国适应或缓解气候变化影响的一切项目。


In a report released in June, the six banks described how they have provided more than $100 billion in climate finance in the four years since joint reporting began.	在六月发布的一份报告中，六家银行汇报了自联合报告开始四年来他们如何提供了超过1000亿美元的气候融资。


The World Bank Group finances can also be tracked under its access to information policy.	也可以依据其信息获取政策对世界银行集团的融资状况进行跟踪。


The conference in Paris offers the opportunity to establish a clear path toward averting the most harmful effects of climate change; world leaders attending the meeting must not allow it to slip through their fingers.	巴黎会议提供了设立明确途径��免气候变化最有害影响的机会； 出席会议的世界领导人绝不能错失这次机会。


By credibly and transparently honoring their promises, rich countries can demonstrate their commitment to the effort and increase the likelihood of an effective agreement.	通过可靠、透明地履行自身承诺，发达国家可以证明他们开展这项工作的决心并加大达成有效协议的可能性。


The time to invest in the fight against climate change is now.	投资对抗气候变化的时机就是现在。


Our emissions are already having devastating effects around the world.	我们的排放已经在世界各地产生了毁灭性的影响。


As climate-related volatility and uncertainty mounts, the cost of inaction will only continue to rise.	随着气候相关波动和不确定性的增加，无所作为的成本将越来越高。


Keeping the Climate-Finance Promise	兑现气候金融承诺


LONDON – In 2009, the world’s rich countries pledged to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020 to help poor countries tackle climate change.	伦敦—2009年，世界发达国家承诺到2020年，每年要动员1,000亿美元帮助穷国应对气候变化。


Since then, that promise has come to be regarded as a key test of the developed world’s resolve to do its part in the fight against global warming.	此后，这一承诺成为发达国家在遏制全球变暖方面做好分内事的决心的重要检验标准。


Reaching the $100 billion target is important.	达到1,000亿美元的目标很重要。


Poor countries must believe that rich countries will honor their pledges.	穷国必须相信发达国家会兑现承诺。


Otherwise, the prospects for an effective international agreement at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in November and December could be at risk.	否则，在11月和12月的巴黎联合国气候变化大会达成有效国际协定的前景就会岌岌可危。


Fortunately, there are encouraging signs that the commitment will be honored.	幸运的是，令人鼓舞的信号表明这一承诺会得到兑现。


But larger financial flows are needed, particularly from the private sector.	但这需要更大的金融流，特别是私人部门金融流。


According to the OECD and the Climate Policy Initiative, developed countries collectively mobilized $52.2 billion in 2013 and $61.8 billion in 2014 to help poor countries reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and build resilience against the effects of climate change that can no longer be avoided.	据经合组织和气候政策倡议（Climate Policy Initiative）的数据，发达国家在2013和2014年分别总共动员522亿美元和618亿美元帮助穷国降低温室气体排放和构建抵御无法避免的气候变化影响的能力。


While it is important to note that this figure is only an estimate, it represents a preliminary but credible indicator of climate finance, based on information provided by developed countries.	这一数字只是估计值，这一点很重要，但这是一个初步但可信的气候金融指标，它是根据发达国家提供的信息算出的。


If one assumes greater leverage for private-sector investment, the number would be higher.	如果我们假设更大的私人投资杠杆，那么这一数字还会更大。


Similarly, conservative assumptions about how much “genuinely extra” money is being spent to fight climate change through overseas aid and the multilateral development banks might have produced a lower figure.	类似地，保守地假设有多少“真正的额外”资金通过海外援助和多边开发银行用于遏制气候变化将让这一数字有所缩小。


In reaching their estimate, the researchers took into account major investments by both the public and private sectors in a wide range of projects.	在计算这一数字时，研究者考虑了各种项目的公共和私人部门重大投资。


Examples include the funding of small-scale renewable energy projects in Uganda by the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, and the European Union, as well as the African Risk Capacity – supported by the UK and Germany – which offers insurance to governments against drought and other natural disasters.	其中的例子包括英国、德国、挪威和欧盟为乌干达提供的小规模可再生能源项目融资，以及英国和德国支持的非洲风险能力（African Risk Capacity）项目。 后者为政府提供抵御干旱和其他自然灾害的保险。


What the report reveals is the relatively low level of investment by the private sector in projects that will increase poor countries’ resilience (though the authors acknowledge that limited information might mean that the true amount is higher).	报告披露，私人部门对于能增强穷国恢复力的项目的投资水较低（尽管作者承认，信息不足可能意味着真正的数字要更高一些）。


This is both a challenge and an opportunity; with the right incentives, a sharp rise in private investment that enhances resilience could go a long way toward meeting the $100 billion target.	这既是挑战，也是机会； 如果有正确的激励，增强恢复力的私人投资的激增可以大大推进1,000美元目标的实现。


Reaching that goal will require increased confidence in the policies and institutions of the countries in which the money is to be spent.	实现这一目标需要人们增加对资金支出对象国政策和制度的信心。


New processes for sharing and reducing risk will be necessary.	新的共享和遏制风险程序也是必不可少的。


In this effort, development banks and bilateral aid institutions have much to offer.	在这方面，开发银行和双边援助机构大有可为。


It is crucial that this new climate finance be used to complement the even-larger investments in sustainable development that will be necessary over the next few decades.	一个关键点是这一新气候金融被用于完成更大规模的可持续发展投资，这类投资是未来几十年中必不可少的。


A central aim for climate financing should be to establish and implement the policies, regulations, and frameworks that will create the appropriate incentives for investors.	气候金融的一个核心目标应该放在制定和实施能创造合理的投资者激励的政策、监管和框架上。


This could provide very large “multipliers.”	这能够带来巨大的“乘数”。


According to the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, some $90 trillion will need to be spent on infrastructure over the next 15 years, mostly in developing and emerging economies that are experiencing rapid growth and urbanization.	据经济和气候全球委员会（Global Commission on the Economy and Climate）的数据，未来15年基础设施投资需求高达90万亿美元，其中大部分集中在高速增长和城市化的发展中和新兴经济体。


If that infrastructure locks in dependence on fossil fuels, it will be very difficult to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases.	如果这些基础设施都需要依赖化石燃料，那么降低全球温室气体排放将十分困难。


However, if countries invest wisely in the transition to a low-carbon economy, they will stimulate innovation and generate decades of sustainable growth.	但是，如果各国明智地投资于低碳经济转型，那么将刺激创新、带来数十年的可持续发展。


Thus, it is important that climate finance be used to foster public and private investment in low-carbon infrastructure and technologies, particularly to lower the cost of capital, which is crucial to scale up projects and encourage renewable-energy adoption.	因此，气候金融被用于促进公私低碳基础设施投资和技术十分重要，特别是要降低资本成本，这是扩大项目规模、鼓励采用可再生能源的关键。


Furthermore, climate funding provided by rich countries should help improve resilience to climate change in the most vulnerable countries. It should also be used to avoid deforestation and to protect fragile resources, including oceans and biodiversity.	此外，发达国家所提供的气候融资应该帮助改善大部分脆弱国家的气候变化恢复力，还应该被用于避免森林采伐和保护脆弱资源（包括海洋和生物多样性）。


And it should boost innovation and break new ground for climate action, including novel ways for the public and private sectors to work together, such as projects on carbon capture and storage.	它还应该刺激创新、为气候行动创造新空间，包括公私合作新方法（如碳捕捉和储藏项目）。


Some of the $100 billion will be channeled through the newly created Green Climate Fund; but the existing multilateral development banks should also play a central role, along with national aid agencies and departments.	大约1,000亿美元将通过新成立的绿色气候基金（Green Climate Fund）提供； 但现有多边开发银行也应该配合国家援助机构和部门，起到核心作用。


Money spent on sustainable development and climate action should be mutually reinforcing.	可持续发展和气候行动方面的支出应该互相加强。


And finance ministries in developing countries should reaffirm that, in addition to fostering growth and poverty reduction, wise action to mitigate climate change can lower levels of air pollution and raise energy efficiency.	发展中国家的财政部应该重申，除了提振增长、降低贫困，遏制气候变化的明智行动还能减少空气污染、提高能源效率。


Success will ultimately depend on rich countries’ willingness to live up to their promises.	成功最终将取决于发达国家兑现承诺的意愿。


Their leaders must recognize that financial support for action against climate change in developing countries is not only morally right; it is also in the interest of their constituencies and, indeed, the world community.	发达国家领导人必须认识到，对发展中国家遏制气候变化的行动的金融支持不但具有道德正确性； 也符合他们的选民的利益，事实上，这也符合全世界的利益。


A Healthy, Climate-Friendly Diet	对气候友好的健康饮食


BERLIN – This December, world leaders will meet in Paris for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, where they will hammer out a comprehensive agreement to reduce carbon emissions and stem global warming.	柏林——今年12月，世界领导人将在巴黎召开联合国气候变化大会，并将在会上敲定一项减少碳排放、遏制全球变暖的全面协议。


In the run-up to that meeting, governments worldwide should note one critical, but often overlooked, fact: the single biggest driver of environmental degradation and resource stress today is our changing diet – a diet that is not particularly conducive to a healthy life, either.	在此次会议的预备阶段，世界各国政府应该注意一个关键、但却往往被忽视的事实：今天环境恶化和资源紧张的唯一最大推动力就是人类正在变化的饮食习惯——而且这种饮食习惯对健康生活也不太有利。


In recent decades, rising incomes have catalyzed a major shift in people’s eating habits, with meat, in particular, becoming an increasingly important feature of people’s diets.	近几十年来，收入增加促成人类饮食习惯的重大变化，特别是肉类正在成为人类饮食越来越重要的特色。


Given that livestock require much more food, land, water, and energy to raise and transport than plants, increased demand for meat depletes natural resources, places pressure on food-production systems, damages ecosystems, and fuels climate change.	与植物相比，饲养及运输牲畜往往要消耗更多粮食、土地、水和能源，因此对肉类需求增加消耗自然资源、对粮食生产体系造成压力、损害生态系统并导致气候变化加剧。


Meat production is about ten times more water-intensive than plant-based calories and proteins, with one kilogram of beef, for example, requiring 15,415 liters of water.	肉类生产消耗的水资源约为植物热量及蛋白质的十倍以上，比方说生产一公斤牛肉需要消耗15，415升水。


It is also an inefficient way of generating food; up to 30 crop calories are needed to produce one meat calorie.	这种粮食生产方式也十分低效； 需要消耗30植物卡路里才能生产出1肉类卡路里。


At any given time, the global livestock population amounts to more than 150 billion, compared to just 7.2 billion humans – meaning that livestock have a larger direct ecological footprint than we do.	在任何特定时点，相比仅仅72亿的全球人口，全球牲畜存栏量高达1，500多亿——这意味着牲畜比我们人类更能直接影响生态足迹。


Livestock production causes almost 14.5% of global greenhouse-gas emissions and contributes significantly to water pollution.	畜牧业生产造成严重水污染和近14. 5%的全球温室气体排放。


Moreover, livestock production consumes one-third of the total water resources used in agriculture (which accounts for 71% of the world’s water consumption), as well as more than 40% of the global output of wheat, rye, oats, and corn.	此外，畜牧业生产消耗农业总用水量（占世界总用水量71%）的1/3，以及小麦、黑麦、燕麦和玉米全球产量的超过40%。


And livestock production uses 30% of the earth’s land surface that once was home to wildlife, thereby playing a critical role in biodiversity loss and species extinction.	而且畜牧业生产占用曾经是野生动物栖息地的30%的地表，从而在很大程度上造成了生物多样性丧失和物种灭绝。


It took more than a century for the European diet to reach the point at which meat is consumed at every meal, including breakfast.	欧洲饮食用了一个多世纪才做到每餐（包括早餐）吃肉。


But, in large parts of Asia, a similar shift has occurred in just one generation.	不过，在亚洲大多数地区，仅仅用了一代人时间就出现了类似的现象。


Meaty diets have created a global obesity problem, including, of all places, in China, whose expanding international clout is accompanied by expanding waistlines at home.	多肉饮食已经造成包括中国在内的全球性肥胖问题，中国不断扩大的国际影响力也伴随着民众不断增加的腰围。


Americans consume the most meat per capita, after Luxembourgers.	美国人的人均肉类消费仅次于卢森堡。 鉴于美国的人口规模，这已经造成了一定的问题。


Given the size of the US population, this is already a problem.	如果世界其他国家都向美国看齐——美国每人每年的肉类消费量平均达125.


If the rest of the world caught up to the United States – where meat consumption averages 125.4 kilograms per person annually, compared with a measly 3.2 kilograms in India – the environmental consequences would be catastrophic.	4千克——而印度却只有可怜的3. 2千克——那么将对环境造成灾难性的的影响。


Already, the signs are worrying.	目前来看，种种迹象十分令人担忧。


The demand for meat is projected to increase by 50% from 2013 to 2025, with overall consumption still rising in the West and soaring in the developing world, especially Asia.	预计2013到2025年肉类需求将增加50%，不仅西方国家总体肉类消费仍在上升，而且发展中国家，特别是亚洲国家更是急速增长。


In order to meet this demand, meat producers have had to adopt an extremely problematic approach to raising livestock.	为满足这一需求，肉类生产商不得不在饲养牲畜时采取有问题的方法。


In order to ensure that their animals gain weight rapidly, meat producers feed them grain, rather than the grass that they would naturally consume – an approach that is a major source of pressure on grain production, natural resources, and the environment.	为确保动物快速增重，肉类生产商用粮食来饲喂牲畜，而不是它们自然会消耗的牧草——上述方法对粮食生产、自然资源和环境都造成了极大压力。


Making matters worse, the livestock are injected with large amounts of hormones and antibiotics.	更糟的是，生产商采用大量激素和抗生素为牲畜注射。


In the US, 80% of all antibiotics sold are administered prophylactically to livestock.	在美国，售出抗生素总量的80%用于牲畜预防性给药。


Yet this has been inadequate to stem the spread of disease; in fact, with many of the new and emerging infectious diseases affecting humans originating in animals, veterinarians, microbiologists, and epidemiologists have been trying to understand the “ecology of disease” (how nature, and humanity’s impact on it, spreads disease).	但已不足以阻止疾病蔓延； 事实上，影响人类的多种新型传染病均起源于动物，兽医、微生物学家、流行病学家已经开始对“疾病生态学”（即自然和人类对自然的影响如何传播疾病）进行研究。


Though the environmental and health costs of our changing diets have been widely documented, the message has gone largely unheard.	虽然饮食变化对环境和健康的影响已被广泛证实，但人类迄今为止并未采取任何措施。


With the world facing a serious water crisis, rapidly increasing global temperatures, staggering population growth, and growing health problems like coronary disease, this must change – and fast.	随着严重水危机、全球气温快速升高、人口惊人增长和冠心病等日益严重的健康问题摆在世界面前，这样的状况必须改变——而且速度要快。


For starters, to ease some of the resource pressure, livestock producers should switch to water-saving technologies, including drip irrigation.	首先，为缓解资源压力，畜牧生产者应改用包括滴灌在内的节水技术。


At the same time, governments and civil-society groups should promote healthier diets that rely more on plant-based proteins and calories.	与此同时，各国政府及民间团体应推动更多依赖植物蛋白和卡路里的健康饮食。


According to recent research, if the world stopped producing crops for animal feed or diverting them to biofuels, it could not only end global hunger, but also feed four billion extra people – more than the number of projected arrivals before the global population stabilizes.	近期研究结果显示，如果世界停止种植动物饲料作物或将其转用于生物燃料，那么不仅可以结束全球饥荒，而且还能额外养活四十亿人口——超过全球人口稳定之前预计出生的人口数。


Meat consumption actually leads to more greenhouse-gas emissions annually than the use of cars does.	肉类消费实际产生的年温室气体排放量甚至超过汽车的使用。


This is not to say that everyone must become vegetarian.	这并不是说所有人必须成为素食主义者。


But even a partial shift in meat-consumption habits – with consumers choosing options like chicken and seafood, instead of beef – could have a far-reaching impact.	但即使肉类消费习惯的局部改变——如消费者选择鸡肉和海鲜而非牛肉——都能产生深远的影响。


Indeed, beef production requires, on average, 28 times more land and 11 times more water than the other livestock categories, while producing five times more greenhouse-gas emissions and six times more reactive nitrogen.	事实上，牛肉生产平均而言需要的土地和水是其他家畜卡路里的28倍和11倍，同时排放高出五倍的温室气体和高出六倍的活性氮。


Adopting a balanced, largely plant-based diet, with minimal consumption of red and processed meat, would help conserve natural resources, contribute to the fight against human-induced global warming, and reduce people’s risk of diet-related chronic diseases and even cancer mortality.	采用以植物为主的均衡饮食、尽量减少消耗红肉及加工肉类有助于保护自然资源、对抗由人类活动引起的全球变暖、并减少与饮食有关的慢性病、甚至癌症死亡风险。


Just as governments have used laws, regulations, and other tools with great success to discourage smoking, so must they encourage citizens to eat a balanced diet – for the sake of their health and that of our planet.	就像政府已经靠法律、法规和其他工具在劝阻吸烟方面取得巨大成功，他们也必须鼓励民众为自身健康和我们的地球着想开始摄入均衡饮食。


Climate Hysteria	气候歇斯底里


You would have had to be stuck in deepest Mongolia to avoid hearing that the United Nations’ climate panel, the IPCC, issued a new report last week.	如果你不想听说联合国气候委员会上周发布了一项新的报告，你就得躲在蒙古国的最深处。


Perhaps even in the depths of Mongolia, you would have heard the dire warnings emitted by journalists.	即使是在那里，你也可能听到了记者们发出的严峻警告。


You would have distilled from these agonized noises that the report concluded that global warming is worse than we had imagined, and that we need to take swift and strong action right now.	你可能会从这些痛苦的噪音中分辨出报告总结说全球气候变暖要比我们想象得要严重，而且我们现在就要采取快速有力的行动。


You would have been misinformed.	如此，你就可能接受了错误信息。


The IPCC has produced a good report – an attempt to summarize what the world’s scientists know about global warming.	联合国气候委员会发表了一个不错的报告。 这一报告试图总结全世界科学家对全球气候变暖的了解。


Unlike the Bush administration, caught downplaying the science, the IPCC squarely tells us that mankind is largely responsible for the planet’s recent warming.	不像布什政府那样被人抓住对科学轻描淡写，这一委员会直截了当地告诉我们说是人类要对地球最近的变暖负责。


And, unlike Al Gore, who has travelled the world warning that our cities might soon be under the oceans, it refrains from scaremongering.	而且，不像戈尔那样周游世界警告说我们的城市将会马上被淹没在海洋里，该委员会避免耸人听闻。


But lost among the hype is the unexciting fact that this report is actually no more dire than the IPCC’s last report, issued in 2001.	但是，迷失在这一喧嚣之中的是一个并不令人兴奋的事实，那就是，这一报告并不比委员会在2001年发表的上一份报告更为严峻。


In two important ways, this year’s effort was actually less dire.	在两个重要方面，今年的报告实际上并非如此严峻。


The report reflected the fact that since 2001, scientists have become more certain that humans are responsible for a large part of global warming.	报告反映了这一事实，即，从2001年以来科学家们更为确信人类要对全球气候变暖的一大部分负责。


Otherwise, though, this report had a definite sense of déjà vu .	除此之外，这一报告给人以似曾相识的感觉。


Estimates of temperature increases, heat waves, and cold waves are all nearly identical to those produced six years ago.	有关气温升高、热浪以及寒流的估计几乎和六年以前提出的报告相似。


The report did, however, contain two surprising facts.	但是，该报告还是包含两个令人惊讶的事实。


Both went unmentioned in most reports.	大多数的报道对此都没有提及。


First, the world’s scientists have re-jigged their estimates about how much sea levels will rise.	首先，世界上的科学家们重新预估海平面将会上升多快。


In the 1980’s, America’s Environmental Protection Agency expected oceans to rise by several metres by 2100.	八十年代，美国环境保护署预计到2010年，海洋将会上升几米。


By the 1990’s, the IPCC was expecting a 67-centimeter rise.	到九十年代末，该委员会估计将会上升67厘米。


Six years ago, it anticipated ocean levels would be 48.5 centimeters higher than they are currently.	六年以前，它估计海平面将会比目前高出48. 5厘米。


In this year’s report, the estimated rise is 38.5 centimeters on average.	在今年的报告中，估计的上升将会是平均38. 5厘米。


This is especially interesting since it fundamentally rejects one of the most harrowing scenes from Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth .	这尤其令人感兴趣。 这是因为这基本上拒绝了戈尔电影中大多数令人悲痛的场景。


In graphic detail, Gore demonstrated how a 20-foot rise in the sea level would inundate much of Florida, Shanghai, and Holland.	戈尔在电影中用生动的细节展示了海平面上升20英尺将会淹没佛罗里达、上海以及荷兰的大部分地区。


The IPCC report makes it clear that exaggerations of this magnitude have no basis in science – though clearly they frightened people and perhaps will win Gore an Academy Award.	委员会的报告则表明，如此夸张毫无科学依据，尽管这些场景令人害怕而且还可能会让戈尔赢得奥斯卡奖。


The report also revealed the improbability of another Gore scenario: that global warming could make the Gulf Stream shut down, turning Europe into a new Siberia.	该报告还揭示了戈尔电影中另一个场景是不可能的，那就是全球变暖会停止湾流的流动，从而将欧洲变成新的西伯利亚。


The IPCC simply and tersely tells us that this scenario – also vividly depicted in the Hollywood movie The Day After Tomorrow – is considered “very unlikely.”	电影<<后日>>也生动地描绘了这一场景。 委员会直截了当地告诉我们说这一场景是“非常不太可能的”。


Moreover, even if the Gulf Stream were to weaken over the century, this would be good , as there would be less net warming over land areas.	而且，即使在本世纪湾流会变弱，这其实是好事，因为在陆地地区气候变暖的净量就会减少。


So why have we been left with a very different impression of the climate panel’s report?	那么，为何我们对委员会的报告存在非常不同的印象呢？


The IPCC is by statute “politically neutral” – it is supposed to tell us just the facts and leave the rest to politicians and the people who elect them.	联合国气候变化委员会依法是“政治上中立”。 它应当仅仅告诉我们事实，而将其他问题交给政客们以及选举他们的人们。


This is why the report is a careful and sensible document.	这就是为什么该报告是一个严谨而有理智的文件。


But scientists and journalists – acting as intermediaries between the report and the public – have engaged in greenhouse activism.	但是，科学家们和记者作为报告和公众的中介却从事了针对温室的活动。


Elsewhere calling for immediate and substantial cuts in carbon emissions, the IPCC’s director even declared that he hoped the IPCC report would “shock people, governments into taking more serious action.”	委员会的主任在其他场合呼吁立即采取实质性的行动来降低碳排放，甚至还宣布他希望这一报告将会“震撼世人和各国政府，从而采取更为严肃的行动”。


It is inappropriate for somebody in such an important and apolitical role to engage in blatant activism.	在这一重要而又非政治性地位上的人悍然从事这种积极行动是不妥的。


Imagine if the director of the CIA published a new assessment of Iran, saying “I hope this report will shock people, governments into taking more serious action.”	想象一下中央情报局局长发表有关伊朗的新评估说“我希望这一报告将会震撼世人和各国政府，从而采取更为严肃的行动”。


Climate change is a real and serious problem.	气候变化是确实存在而又严肃的问题。


But the problem with the recent media frenzy is that some seem to believe no new report or development is enough if it doesn’t reveal more serious consequences and more terrifying calamities than humanity has ever considered before.	但是最近媒体炒作的问题在于，某些人似乎相信，如果不能展示比人类从前所考虑的更为严重的后果和更为恐怖的灾难，新的报告或者进展就无济于事。


Indeed, this media frenzy has little or no scientific backing.	确实，媒体炒作基本上没有什么科学依据。


One of England’s foremost climatologists, Mike Hulme, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, points out that green militancy and megaphone journalism use “catastrophe and chaos as unguided weapons with which forlornly to threaten society into behavioral change.”	英格兰最著名的气候学家、坦道尔气候变化研究中心主任麦克·赫尔姆指出，激进环保主义和媒体炒作使用“灾难和混乱作为无的放矢的武器来悲惨地胁迫社会改变行为”。


In his words, “we need to take a deep breath and pause.”	用他的话来说，“我们需要深呼吸，暂停一下。 ”


A 38.5 cm rise in the ocean’s levels is a problem, but by no means will it bring down civilization.	海洋平面上升38. 5厘米是一个问题，但是绝��会摧毁人类文明。


Last century sea levels rose by half that amount without most of us even noticing.	上个世纪海平面上升了那个数量的一半，大多数人甚至没有注意到。


The UN tells us that there is virtually nothing we can do that would affect climate change before 2030.	联合国告诉我们说，在2030年以前，人类在影响气候变化上基本无所作为。


So we have to ask the hard question of whether we could do better by focusing on other issues first – helping real people improve their lives and resilience so they can better deal with the world’s challenges.	因此，我们不得不提出这样严肃的问题，那就是，我们是否可以首先关注于其他问题更好，也就是帮助活生生的人们改善生活和抗拒困难的能力，这样他们就可以更好地应付世界的挑战。


When Nobel Laureate economists weighed up how to achieve the most good for the world in a recent project called the Copenhagen Consensus, they found that focusing on HIV/AIDS, malaria, malnutrition, and trade barriers should all be tackled long before we commit to any dramatic action on climate change.	这一工程被成为哥本哈根共识。 他们发现，在对气候变化承诺采取重大行动之前的很长一段时间，我们应当集中精力处理艾滋病、霍乱、营养不良以及贸易壁垒等问题。


With the world in a fury about cutting greenhouse gasses, it is easy to forget that there are other and better ways to do some good for the planet.	当世界大肆谈论减少温室气体之时，就很容易忘记还有其他更好的途径来为地球做好事。


Good decisions come from careful consideration.	良好的决定来自于认真的考虑。


The IPCC report provides that.	联合国气候变化委员会的报告提供了这一点。


But the cacophony of screaming that has accompanied it does not help.	但是，随之而来的喧哮却于事无补。


Climate Justice	气候公平


DURBAN – Before the Copenhagen climate-change summit two years ago, the two of us sat together in Cape Town to listen to five African farmers from different countries, four of whom were women, tell us how climate change was undermining their livelihoods.	德班——两年前，在哥本哈根气候变化峰会召开前夕，我们俩一起在开普敦倾听五位来自不同非洲国家的农民（其中四位是女性）告诉我们气候变化是如何破坏他们的生活的。


Each explained how floods and drought, and the lack of regular seasons to sow and reap, were outside their normal experience.	每个人都向我们解释洪水和干旱以及播种和收获季节的不规律是如何与他们的日常经验相悖的。


Their fears are shared by subsistence farmers and indigenous people worldwide – the people bearing the brunt of climate shocks, though they played no part in causing them.	他们的担心是全世界自耕农和原住民的共同担心，这些与导致气候变化毫不相干的人受气候冲击影响最深。


Now, two years later, we are in Durban, where South Africa is hosting this year’s climate-change conference, COP17, and the situation for poor people in Africa and elsewhere has deteriorated even further.	如今，两年过去了，我们来到了今年气候变化会议COP17的举办地南非德班，而非洲和其他地区的贫困人口的状态比两年前更加恶化了。


In its latest report, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that it is virtually certain that, in global terms, hot days have become hotter and occur more often; indeed, they have increased in frequency by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world.	最新的联合国气候变化跨国委员会报告指出，几乎可以肯定，从全球角度看，高温天气正在变得更热，且出现得更频繁； 事实上，在世界大部分地区，高温天数频率提高了十倍。


Moreover, the brutal paradox of climate change is that heavy precipitation is occurring more often as well, increasing the risk of flooding.	此外，气候变化存在一个残酷的悖论，即大规模集中降水也愈来愈频繁，这增加了发生洪水的风险。


Since 2003, East Africa has had the eight warmest years on record, which is no doubt contributing to the severe famine that now afflicts 13 million people in the Horn of Africa.	自2003年以来，东非地区记录了8个最温暖年份，毫无疑问，这与困扰非洲之角1300万人的大饥荒密切相关。


These are the consequences that a mere one degree of warming above pre-industrial levels has wrought.	这些都是地球比前工业时代变暖了仅仅1度造成的。


The UN Environment Program’s just published report Bridging the Emissions Gap shows that over the course of this century, warming will likely rise to four degrees unless we take stronger action to cut emissions.	联合国环境计划署刚出版的报告《消除排放缺口》（Bridging the Emissions Gap）显示，如果我们不采取更强有力的措施削减排放量，那么本世纪气候变暖幅度将上升为4度。


Yet the latest evidence demonstrates that we are not acting – the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Report 2011 reveals that CO2 emissions have rebounded to a record high.	但最新证据表明，我们并没有采取行动，国际能源署的《2011年世界能源报告》显示，二氧化碳排放量再次创出新高。


We are alarmed that expectations for COP17 are so low.	我们已经获得了警告，人们对COP17的期望很低。


Where is the global leadership that must respond urgently?	应该采取紧急应对措施的国际领袖哪里去了？


We desperately need a global deal.	我们迫切需要一个全球方案。


At the heart of this deal is the preservation of the Kyoto Protocol.	该方案的核心是保留京都议定书。


The Protocol is not a perfect instrument.	京都议定书并不是完美的工具。


It does too little to cut global emissions, and it requires too few countries to cut their emissions growth.	它在削减全球排放方面做得远远不够，对各国降低排放量增长的要求也远远不足。


But it is part of international law, and that is vital. 	但它是国际法的一部分，而且是有效的。


Climate change is a global problem: if countries are not confident that others are addressing it, they will not feel an imperative to act themselves.	气候变化是一个全球问题：如果一国不相信其他国家会修正这一问题，那么它也不会感到有必要单独采取行动。


So, having a legal framework with clear and common rules to which all countries are committed is critically important – and the only assurance we have that action will be taken to protect the most vulnerable.	因此，设立一个法律框架，给所有国家制定明确共同的规则是至关重要的，也是我们唯一能够获得的确保实施保护最脆弱国家措施的办法。


The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires at the end of 2012.	京都议定书的第一承诺期将在2012年末到期。


So the European Union and the other Kyoto parties (the United States never ratified the agreement, and the Protocol’s terms asked little of China, India, and other emerging powers) must commit to a second commitment period, in order to ensure that this legal framework is maintained.	因此欧盟和京都议定书的其他各方（美国从未批准过该协议，中国、印度和其他新兴大国也不受京都议定书约束）必须提交第二承诺期，以确保这一法律框架能够得以延续。


At the same time, all countries must acknowledge that extending the lifespan of the Kyoto Protocol will not solve the problem of climate change, and that a new or additional legal framework that covers all countries is needed.	与此同时，所有国家都必须承认，延长京都议定书的生命期限并不能解决气候变化问题，必须引入新的覆盖全部国家的法律框架。


The Durban meeting must agree to initiate negotiations towards this end – with a view to concluding a new legal instrument by 2015 at the latest.	德班会议必须就展开这方面的谈判达成一致——最晚应该于2015年出台新的法律框架。


All of this is not only possible, but also necessary, because the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy makes economic, social, and environmental sense.	所有这些不但可行，而且不得不行，因为向低碳的能源友好型经济转型在经济、社会和环境方面都会带来好处。


The problem is that making it happen requires political will, which, unfortunately, seems in short supply.	问题在于，推动转型需要政治意愿，而不幸的是，政治意愿相当不足。


Climate change is a matter of justice.	气���变化是一个公平问题。


The richest countries caused the problem, but it is the world’s poorest who are already suffering from its effects.	最发达国家导致了气候变化问题，但承受影响的最贫穷国家。


In Durban, the international community must commit to righting that wrong.	在德班，国际社会必须承诺纠正这一错误。


Political leaders must think inter-generationally.	政治领导人必须为子孙后代考虑。


They need to imagine the world of 2050, with its nine billion people, and take the right decisions now to ensure that our children and grandchildren inherit a liveable world.	他们需要想到2050年的世界和那时的90亿人口，并在今天做出正确的决策，确保给我们的子孙后代留下适宜生活的世界。


Nature’s Answer to Climate Risk	气候风险的自然答案


LONDON – Nearly half the world’s population – some 3.5 billion people – lives near coasts.	伦敦—全世界近一半人口——大约35亿人——生活在海洋沿岸。


As climate change exacerbates the effects of storms, flooding, and erosion, the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of those people will be at risk.	随着气候变化加剧了风暴、洪水和侵蚀的影响，数亿人的生活和生计受到了威胁。


In fact, the latest edition of the World Economic Forum’s World Risk Assessment Report names failure to adapt to the effects of climate change as the single greatest risk, in terms of impact, to societies and economies around the world.	事实上，世界经济论坛的最新版《世界风险评估报告》（World Risk Assessment Report）将不能适应气候变化的影响列为全球社会和经济面临的最大的风险（以影响衡量）。


Beyond endangering lives, more frequent and stronger storms could cost many billions of dollars, owing to infrastructure damage and lost revenues from farming, fisheries, and tourism.	除了威胁生命，更频繁和更强劲的风暴还可能导致基础设施破坏和失去务农、捕捞和旅游业收入，引起成百上千亿美元的损失。


And, as the Harvard Business Review recently noted, the projected cost rises with each new study.	此外，《哈佛商业评论》最近指出，每项新研究的预估成本都会有所增加。


Yet the international community currently spends on risk mitigation less than one-fifth of what it spends on natural-disaster response.	但国际社会目前对遏制风险的支出还不到自然灾害响应支出的五分之一。


When it comes to climate risk, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.	对于气候风险问题，预防可谓事半功倍。


As Rebecca Scheurer, Director of the Red Cross Global Disaster Preparedness Center, put it, “We spend millions of dollars on the response side, and were we to invest more of those resources on the front end we’d save more people.	红十字会全球灾难准备中心主任瑞贝卡·朔勒（Rebecca Scheurer）指出，“我们花几百万美元用于灾难响应，而如果我们将这些资源更多地用于前端，就可以拯救更多的人。


It’s as simple as that.”	就这么简单。 ”


With the human and the financial costs of climate change attracting more attention than ever, now is the time to shift resources toward risk reduction.	气候变化的人力和财务成本吸引着前所未有的注意力，是时候将资源转而投向降低风险上了。


Doing so will require national governments, industry, aid organizations, and other NGOs to make the most of their investments.	这样做要求国家政府、产业界、援助组织和其他非政府组织来负责大部分投资。


And some of the most effective and cost-effective solutions are already available in nature.	而效果最好、性价比最高的解决方案就在大自然中。


Coastal and marine ecosystems have considerable potential to mitigate the effects of storms and other risks, especially when combined with traditional built infrastructure.	海岸和海洋生态系统拥有巨大的潜力能够减轻风暴和其他风险的影响，特别是在传统建成基础设施的配合下。


A 100-meter belt of mangroves, for example, can reduce wave height by up to 66% and lower peak water levels during floods.	比如，100米的红树林带可以让浪高降低最多66%，并能降低洪水期间的峰值水位。


A healthy coral reef can reduce wave force by 97%, lessening the impact of storms and preventing erosion.	健康的珊瑚礁可以让波浪力量减少97%，缓和风暴的影响并预防侵蚀。


These and other coastal ecosystems are the first line of defense for many cities around the world, from Miami to Manila.	这些和其他海岸生态系统是保卫环球诸多城市的第一道屏障，从迈阿密到马尼拉莫不如是。


Until recently, such nature-based solutions were too often overlooked.	直到最近，这些基于大自然的方案常常被忽视。


But leaders increasingly recognize their importance, and are beginning to take action, including on the international level.	但领导人们日益认识到它们的重要性，并正在���始采取行动，包括国际层面的行动。


The Paris climate agreement, reached last December and signed last month, not only established a consensus on the importance of addressing climate change, but also explicitly affirmed that ecosystems play a role in capturing greenhouse gases and helping communities adapt to the effects of climate change.	去年12月达成并在上个月签署的巴黎气候协定不但形成了关于解决气候变化的重要性的共识，还明确确认了生态系统在捕捉温室气体、帮助社会适应气候变化影响方面所起的作用。


At the national level, some of the most at-risk island countries are taking important steps.	在国家层面，一些最危险的岛国正在采取重要措施。


For example, last year, the Seychelles announced a first-of-its-kind “debt for nature” swap with its Paris Club creditors and The Nature Conservancy.	比如，去年塞舌尔宣布与巴黎俱乐部债权人和大自然保护协会进行历史上首次“自然债务”（debt for nature）互换。


The swap will allow the country to redirect $21.6 million of its debt toward investment in a comprehensive approach to ocean conservation that will bolster its resilience to climate change.	该互换可以让塞舌尔将改变其2,160万美元债务的用途，用于投资有助提升其抵御气候变化能力的全面的海洋保护方针。


Private-sector leaders, too, are starting to look toward natural tools.	私人部门领袖也开始将目光投向自然工具。


Engineering firms like CH2M are working with coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico and beyond to find hybrid solutions that combine traditional and nature-based approaches.	CH2M等工程企业正在于墨西哥湾沿岸及周边社区合作寻找将传统和基于自然的方针结合起来的混合方案。


Even the insurance industry – comprising what may be the most risk-averse companies in the world – sees the potential in natural solutions.	就连保险业——其中都是些也许是世界上最厌恶风险的公司——也看到了自然解决方案的潜力。


Over the last decade, insurers have paid out some $300 billion for climate-related damage, often to rebuild the same vulnerable structures.	在过去十年中，保险商因为气候相关损失而破费了大约3,000亿美元，而这些钱常常被用于重建同样脆弱的结构。


It is not surprising, then, that the reinsurer Swiss Re has conducted studies on mitigating the costly risks of hurricanes to coastal communities.	因此，毫不奇怪瑞士再保险公司正在组织研究减轻海洋沿岸社区代价巨大的飓风风险。


According to one Swiss Re study, Barbados loses the equivalent of 4% of its GDP every year to hurricane-related costs.	据瑞士再保险公司的一项研究，巴巴多斯每年因为飓风相关成本而损失GDP的4%。


But every dollar spent to protect mangroves and coral reefs saved $20 in future hurricane losses.	但用于保护红树林和珊瑚礁的每一美元能够节约20美元的未来飓风损失。


Given such findings, it is no longer inconceivable that insurance companies might one day write coverage for wetlands and other natural infrastructure that offers protection for coastal communities and economies.	基于这些发现，保险公司完全有可能从某一天开始为保护海洋沿岸社区和经济体的湿地和自然基础设施提供保险。


Nature can also help to protect livelihoods.	大自然还有助于保护生计。


A Red Cross-led mangrove restoration project in Vietnam not only reduced damage to dykes and other built infrastructure, but also resulted in higher aquaculture yields and thus more income for the local communities.	红十字会领导的越南红树林恢复项目不但降低了对海塘和其他建成基础设施的破坏，还提高了水产养殖产量，从而给当地社区带来更多收入。


A mangrove and coral restoration project in Grenada – a joint effort of the Red Cross, the Nature Conservancy, and the fishers of Grenada’s Grenville community – has also shown great potential to increase resilience.	格林纳达的红树林和珊瑚恢复项目——红十字会、大自然保护协会和格林纳达格伦威尔（Grenville）社区的渔民合作之间的合作项目——也表现出巨大的提高恢复力的潜力。


Just 30 meters of reef and coral have been shown to increase substantially the population of lobster, conch, octopus, and urchins.	该项目证明，只需要30米的珊瑚礁就能显著增加龙虾、海螺、章鱼和海胆的数量。


Climate and disaster resilience is a challenge that spans across sectors.	气候和灾难恢复力是牵涉到所有部门的挑战。


So too must our solutions.	我们的对策亦然。


Such collaborative efforts are vital to the development and implementation of more effective preventive strategies.	这些集体措施是制定和实施更有效的预防性战略的关键。


The World Bank, the Nature Conservancy, and partner researchers (including ecologists, economists, and engineers) have recently published a report offering guidelines for such cooperation.	世界银行、大自然保护协会和合作研究者（包括生态学家、经济学家和工程师）最近发布了一份报告，为这类合作提供了指引。


Specifically, the report recommends calculating the value of coastal ecosystems in terms of protected capital and infrastructure, based on approaches commonly used by the insurance and engineering industries.	具体而言，该报告建议以受保护资本和基础设施为标准，基于被保险和工程业通通采用的方法估算海岸生态系统的价值。


In the face of rising climate and disaster risk, investments in nature-based solutions can protect lives and safeguard prosperity in a cost-effective manner – all while preserving imperiled natural ecosystems around the world.	面对气候和灾难风险的增加，投资于基于大自然的方案能保护生命，以高性价比的方式捍卫繁荣——同时还能保全身陷重重危机的全球自然生态系统。


It is time for governments, business, and NGOs alike to recognize that when it comes to fighting the effects of climate change and protecting coastal communities, preserving and restoring nature may be the smartest investment we can make.	政府、企业和非政府组织都应该认识到，在打击气候变化影响和保护沿海社区的问题上，保护和恢复大自然也许是我们所能做出的最明智的投资。


Climate Science or Climate Evangelism?	气候科学还是气候传教？


COPENHAGEN – As George W. Bush and Tony Blair learned the hard way, the public does not take kindly to being misled about the nature of potential threats.	发自哥本哈根 —— 美国前总统小布什和英国前首相布莱尔这两位仁兄都已经深刻地领悟到，如果公众发现自己在某些潜在威胁的真相上受到了误导，那么后果就会很严重。


The after-the-fact revelation that the reasons for invading Iraq were vastly exaggerated – and in some cases completely fabricated – produced an angry backlash that helped toss the Republicans out of power in the United States in 2008 and may do the same to Britain’s Labour Party later this year.	在入侵伊拉克问题上，事后调查发现其中的动因都被极度夸大了 —— 某些甚至是捏造出来的 —— 于是民众为此爆发出来的愤怒和反抗在 2008 年把美国共和党赶下了台，而这一切也很可能在今年晚些时候在英国工党身上重演一遍。


A similar shift in global public opinion is occurring with respect to climate change.	而在气候变化问题上，全球舆论也发生了类似的转向。


The process picked up momentum late last year, after hackers leaked thousands of e-mails from a top British research facility showing that some of the world’s most influential climatologists had been trying to disguise flaws in their work, blocking scrutiny, and plotting together to enforce what amounts to a party line on climate change.	自从去年年底网络黑客公布了数千封来自英国某顶尖研究机构的电子邮件，揭露某些全球最具影响力的气象学家一直以来都在努力粉饰其在气候变化问题上的研究缺陷，阻挠审查，并合谋将自己这一派的气候变化观点强加于人之后，这一转向过程更呈现出加速的趋势。


More recently, the United Nations’ respected advisory group, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has been deeply embarrassed by the revelation that some alarming predictions contained in an influential report that it released in 2007 have little or no scientific basis.	而美国权威咨询小组政府间气候变化专门委员会（ IPCC ）最近也陷入了十分尴尬的境地，因为该机构在 2007 年发布的一份影响重大的报告中的某些骇人听闻的预测也被揭露出是毫无科学依据的。


Although none of these lapses provides any reason to doubt that global warming is real, is man-made, and will create problems for us, these challenges to the IPCC are taking their toll.	尽管这些谬误并未让我们质疑全球变暖确实正在发生，确实是人为所致，而且确实将带来很多麻烦，但这些对 IPCC 的质疑也造成了极大的损害。


Indeed, recent surveys show that the public is growing steadily less trusting of the scientific consensus on global warming.	事实胜于雄辩，最近就有调查显示，公众对全球变暖的科学共识越来越不信任了。


The biggest headlines about IPCC errors concern a claim about melting Himalayan glaciers that it made in its 2007 report on the likely impacts of climate change.	而在 IPCC 所犯错误中最大的一条，就是其在 2007 年编写的一份关于气候变化潜在影响的报告中对喜马拉雅冰川融化的观点。


“Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world,” the report noted, adding that “if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high.”	报告中说“喜马拉雅冰川比世界其他地方的冰川要消失得更快”，接着补充说“如果保持现在这个消失速度不变，那么这些冰川很有可能在 2035 年或甚至更早的时间内完全消失。


As it happens, this prediction was not based on any peer-reviewed scientific research but was lifted from a report by the World Wildlife Fund, which was repeating an unproven speculation by a single researcher.	”但令人吃惊的是，这一预测并未基于任何经过了科学审查的研究结果，而只是摘自于世界自然基金会的一份报告，而这一份报告只是简单地复述了一位研究人员未经证实的猜测而已。


This lack of scientific basis did not stop countless global-warming activists from citing the glacier prediction at every opportunity.	尽管如此，科学依据的缺乏却未能阻止无数的环保分子利用一切机会引用这一冰川融化的观点。


When the Indian government suggested last year that the Himalayan glaciers were in better shape than the IPCC claimed, the IPCC’s chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, dismissed India’s objections as being based on “voodoo science.”	去年，当印度政府声明说喜马拉雅冰川的状况要比 IPCC 宣称的要好时， IPCC 主席拉津德·巴乔里竟反驳说印度政府的反对是基于“巫术科学”。


Earlier this month, the Indian government reacted to the revelations about the baseless nature of the glacier claim by announcing plans to establish what amounts to its own “Indian IPCC” to assess the impact of global warming.	而在这一冰川融化��点被揭露为毫无依据之后，印度政府的反应则是在本月初宣布计划建立本国自己的“政府间气候变化专门委员会”来评估全球变暖的影响。


India’s environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, declared: “There is a fine line between climate science and climate evangelism.	印度环境部部长拉姆·拉梅什说：“在气候科学和气候传教之间是有清晰的区别的，而我本人站在气候科学这一边。


I am for climate science.”	”


Climate evangelism is an apt description of what the IPCC has been up to, for it has exaggerated some of the ramifications of climate change in order to make politicians take note.	“气候传教”正是对 IPCC 所作所为的一个写照，因为它夸大了气候变化的某些影响，目的则是吸引政治家的关注。


Murari Lal, the coordinating lead author of the section of the IPCC report that contained the Himalayan error, admitted that he and his colleagues knew that the dramatic glacier prediction was not based on any peer-reviewed science.	穆拉里·拉尔是 IPCC 报告中喜马拉雅冰川这部分内容的主要联名作者，他承认他本人及其同事都清楚知道冰川大面积融化的预测根本都没有经过任何科学审核。


Nonetheless, he explained, “we thought that if we can highlight it, it will impact policy-makers and politicians and encourage them to take some concrete action.”	然而，他解释说：“当时，我们认为如果能够突出这部分内容，那么它将会对政策制定者和政治家产生影响，从而鼓励他们采取一些具体的行动。 ”


The concrete action that they had in mind was getting governments to mandate drastic cuts in carbon-dioxide emissions.	而在这些人的大脑中，所谓的具体行动就是促使政府强制推行大规模二氧化碳减排。


Activists have been pursuing this approach to tackling global warming without success for nearly 20 years, most recently at last December’s failed climate summit in Copenhagen.	在过去将近 20 年的时间里，环保分子一直致力于用这种方法来解决全球变暖的问题，最近的尝试则是去年 12 月哥本哈根那场失败的气候峰会。


The problem is that it is too expensive a solution for politicians and the public to swallow easily –which is why many well-meaning climate scientists have apparently concluded that instead of relying on reasoned discussion, they might as well try to scare us witless.	而失败的原因则在于对政治家和公众来说，这套方案的成本太过昂贵了，这也是为什么许多心怀善意的气候科学家最终得出这么一个结论：与其指望理性的讨论能够促进方案的执行，还不如恐吓一下我们这些无知的民众。


Consider what the IPCC had to say about extreme weather events such as intense hurricanes.	让我们来回想一下 IPCC 所描述的诸如巨型台风等的极端天气情况。


The cost of such events in terms of destroyed property and economic disruption has been rising steadily.	虽然这些情况导致的财产破坏和经济紊乱的损失一直持续增加。


Every peer-reviewed study has shown that this is not because of rising temperatures, but because more people live in harm’s way.	但所有经过审查的科学研究都显示，这并不是气温上升而导致的，而是因为越来越多的人居住在那些危险地带。


Nonetheless, in the IPCC’s influential 2007 assessment of climate change, the panel’s Working Group II (charged with assessing the potential impact of global warming) chose to cite one, then-unpublished study that supposedly found that global warming had doubled damage costs over the past 35 years.	但即便如此，在 2007 年 IPCC 举行的关于气候变迁的评估中，该专家小组的第二工作小组（负责评估全球变暖的潜在影响）选择引用一份当时还未曾公开发表的研究，该研究认为在过去 35 年间全球变暖所造成的损失增长了一倍。


In fact, when this study was finally published, it stated categorically that there was “insufficient evidence” to link the increased losses to global warming.	谁知当这一研究最终发表时，却明确声明在损失增加和全球变暖之间找不到“足够的证据”证明两者之间的联系。


In other words, what Working Group II reported was plain wrong.	换句话说，第二工作小组的报告是完全错误的。


Elsewhere in the 2007 assessment, Working Group II claimed that “up to 40% of the Amazonian forests” were at imminent risk of being destroyed by global warming.	在 2007 年评估报告的其他部分，第二工作小组声称“亚马逊地区有 40 ％的森林”有被全球变暖摧毁的危险。


The basis for this claim was a single report from the World Wildlife Fund that itself cited only one study, which didn’t even look at climate change, but rather at the impact of human activities like logging and burning.	然而这一结论却只是基于世界自然基金会的一份报告，而这个报告只引用了一个单一的研究，那份研究甚至跟气候变化无关，仅仅是描述了人类砍伐和焚烧所带来的影响而已。


In similar fashion, Working Group II claimed that “by 2020, in some [African] countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%.”	用类似的方式，第二工作小组声称“到 2020 年，在（非洲）某些国家，由雨水灌溉的农业的所产生的收益将减少 50 ％。


Much quoted since, this alarming statistic turns out to have been based on a single, unreferenced bullet-point from a report by an environmental think tank.	”尽管被引用的频率很高，但这一骇人听闻的统计数字原来只是基于一份由某环境研究智库所做的一份报告中的单一的，连参考资料都没有的重点提要部分。


There are numerous other examples of similar shenanigans by Working Group II.	类似的手法在第二工作小组的报告中还有很多很多，不胜枚举。


Yet, aside from a grudging admission that its predictions about Himalayan glaciers were “poorly substantiated,” the IPCC has yet to acknowledge – much less apologize for – any of the lapses.	然而除了勉强承认其关于喜马拉雅冰川的预测是“有悖事实”之外， IPCC 没有承认任何其他的错漏 —— 更遑论为此而道歉了。


If the IPCC is to do to its job properly, it must own up to all of its missteps and clean house.	如果 IPCC 真的想做到称职胜任，它就必须坦承其所有的失误，并进而改正。


Nobody expects it to be infallible.	毕竟没人指望它的工作能毫不出错。


But neither should we tolerate its attempts to scare policy-makers rather than inform them.	但我们所不能容忍的，是它不是向政策制定者陈述事实，而是靠恐吓来达到自己的目的。


America’s Race to the Ballot’s Bottom	美国的下级选举竞争


WASHINGTON, DC – Hillary Clinton’s US presidential campaign has been torn between trying to secure the largest possible victory for the candidate herself and explicitly helping fellow Democratic gubernatorial and legislative candidates further down the ballot.	华盛顿—希拉里·克林顿的美国总统选战一直“分裂”，一方面要确保候选人她本人最大可能赢得胜利，另一方面又要明确帮助民主党州长和立法部门候选人赢得投票箱。


It’s an open question whether Clinton could do more for down-ballot candidates by winning decisively – so that the enthusiasm trickles down – or by expending time and money to help those candidates individually.	克林顿是否可以通过取得决定性胜利——从而趁热打铁——帮助下级（down-ballot）候选人或通过更多的时间和金钱个别助选仍有待观察。


The Clinton camp has decided to pursue both strategies.	克林顿阵营已决定双管齐下。


With just a week left before the election, the presidential candidates are crisscrossing the country: whereas Republican nominee Donald Trump is struggling to cobble together the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win, Clinton is trying to lock up as large a victory – in both the popular vote and the Electoral College – as possible.	距离选举已经不到一周，两位总统候选人正在周游全国：共和党提名人唐纳德·特朗普忙于聚集胜选所需要的270张选举人票，而克林顿则在试图尽可能锁定获胜优势——包括总票数和选举人票。


Just a week ago, Clinton seemed to be heading toward an overwhelming victory.	一周前，克林顿眼看就要大获全胜。


But on October 28, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress announcing that he was reopening the investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was Secretary of State.	但10月28日，联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米（James Comey）致信国会，宣布他要重启对克林顿在担任国务卿期间使用私人电子邮件服务器的调查。


The reason?	理由？


Thousands of emails had been discovered on the laptop of the estranged husband of Clinton’s closest assistant, Huma Abedin, during a separate inquiry into his own activities.	在一次针对克林顿的亲信胡马·阿贝丁（Huma Abedin）的分居丈夫的单独调查期间，在他的笔记本电脑中发现数千封电子邮件。


(No, this isn’t a movie plot.)	（不，这不是电影桥段。 ）


Comey’s announcement triggered an uproar, but it hasn’t so far had a notable impact on the race.	科米的决定引起剧烈反弹，但到目前为止并未对竞选产生可观影响。


The Clinton campaign has not given up even on winning states that have long been considered Republican strongholds, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Utah.	克林顿阵营甚至没有放弃争取长期以来一直被视为共和党铁票仓的亚利桑那、佐治亚和犹他州。


And Trump, despite feeling invigorated by the discovery, has continued to pursue states, such as New Mexico, that would do him little good in the Electoral College count.	而特朗普尽管因为联邦调查局的发现而欢欣鼓舞，仍在继续争取新墨西哥州等对他的选举人票数几乎没有影响的州。


But Trump, new to politics, fancies himself a great political strategist.	但政治新人特朗普幻想自己是一位伟大的政治战略家。


Trump has few political allies to help him out, while Clinton’s many surrogates include her husband, former President Bill Clinton; President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama, the breakout star of this election; and Vice President Joe Biden and Clinton’s vice-presidential running mate, Tim Kaine.	特朗普几乎没有政治盟友帮他指点迷津，而克林顿有许多代理人，包括她的丈夫、前总统比尔·克林顿； 奥巴马总统和在此次选举中冉冉升起的新星、第一夫人米歇尔·奥巴马；


Two stars of the left, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, have also campaigned for Clinton; if she wins, they will call in the debt both in policy terms and on appointees.	以及副总统拜登和克林顿的副总统竞选搭档蒂姆·凯恩（Tim Kaine）。 两位左翼明星伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）和伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）也为克林顿摇旗呐喊；


Meanwhile, Clinton has appeared with Democratic Senate candidates who are challenging incumbent Republicans, including Katie McGinty, who is running to oust Senator Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania; Governor Maggie Hassan, who hopes to topple Senator Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire; and Deborah Ross, who is mounting a strong challenge to Senator Richard Burr in North Carolina.	与此同时，克林顿与正在挑战现任多数的共和党的民主党参议员候选人并肩作战，包括试图罢免宾夕法尼亚州参议员帕特·图梅（Pat Toomey）的凯蒂·麦金迪（Katie McGinty）； 希望在新罕布什尔州掀翻参议员凯利·阿约特（Kelly Ayotte）的州长麦基·哈森（Maggie Hassan）；


The Clinton campaign has poured money into several Senate, House of Representatives, gubernatorial, and even state-legislature races, and Clinton field workers and volunteers have been encouraged to help down-ballot candidates in contentious races.	克林顿阵营对一些参议员、众议员和州长席位投入重金，甚至还包括州立法部门选战，而克林顿阵营的实地工作者和志愿者也被动员起来帮助有望一争的下级候选人。


Obama, for his part, recently recorded a series of video endorsements for Democrats running for the Senate, the House, and state legislatures.	奥巴马最近发表了一系列视频讲话支持民主党竞争参议院、众议院和州立法部门。


Numerous pundits say that the FBI announcement will help Republicans down-ballot, but that’s pure speculation.	各路专家纷纷表示联邦调查局的决定将有助于共和党的下级候选人，但这纯属猜测。


If Clinton wins the White House and many Republican incumbents are swept out of office, the US will have had a “wave” election.	如果克林顿赢得白宫，并且许多共和党在任者被扫地出门，美国将迎来一起“再见”选举。


But we likely won’t know if this is happening until the last minute.	但在最后一分钟之前，我们都无法知道结果。


In the 1980 wave election, when Ronald Reagan and the Republican ticket overwhelmed President Jimmy Carter and toppled several liberal Democrats in the Senate, the presidential race was nearly tied until the final weekend.	在1980年的再见选举中，罗纳德·里根和共和党横扫总统吉米·卡特，并在参议院中也掀翻了多名自由派民主党，但总统之争直到最后一个周末仍处于胶着状态。


Even if the Democrats retake the Senate in a wave, the honeymoon won’t last long.	即使民主党在再见竞选中重新赢得参议院，蜜月期也不会维持很久。


In two years, another third of the Senate will be up for reelection, and far more Democrats than Republicans will have to defend their seats – a reversal of the situation this year.	两年后，又有三分之一参议员需要重选，并且需要捍卫席位的民主党将远多于共和党——与今年的形势正好颠倒。