If we can make these changes – and one should not minimize the scale of the task – perhaps when G-20 leaders meet in the future, they will not think that their citizens have little interest in the outcome. Instead, they will have a political mandate to attend meaningfully to the welfare of the global economy.	如果我们能实现这种转变——同时也不缩小这一任务的范畴——或许当20国集团领袖再度聚首一堂之时，他们不会再认为本国人民对会议的成果毫不关心，恰恰相反，他们受人民的委托，来为全球经济的福祉做出努力的。


How to Waste a Crisis	如何浪费一场危机


The global financial crisis is reaching a bottom, and yet political frustration is growing, because the low point of the collapse seems to offer a last opportunity to promote dramatic change, and that opportunity may be missed.	全球的金融危机虽然已经达到谷底，政治上的失败感却在加剧。 因为一次危机似乎本可以带来一场巨大的变革，但进行变革的最后一次机会却正在失去。


Last year, President Obama’s chief of staff Rahm Emanuel remarked that a good crisis should never be wasted.	美国总统奥巴马主要幕僚拉姆·伊曼纽尔去年就表示，不应把这么好的一次危机浪费掉。


Disaster is an opportunity for thinking of ways to make the world fundamentally better – and also prevent future crises.	危机可以让人们去思考如何使我们的世界变得更好，如何防御将来再次发生的危机。


People do a great deal of thinking, but sometimes they think so much that they come up with contradictory responses.	人们对危机思考的很多，但有时候过多的思考却导致彼此的意见相互冲突。


Indeed, what really makes a crisis profound is precisely the broad variety of differing diagnoses and different remedies.	实际上，一次危机之所以会变得失控，主要在于其引发的对危机性质的定性、以及如何解决危机的措施的不同选择。


The political passions aroused by the clashes of interpretation often make the crisis seemingly insoluble.	意见相左激发的政治情感往往使得危机看起来无从解决。


It was those conflicts, rather than some technical flaw in the operation of the economy, which made the Great Depression of the 1930’s such a dismal and destructive event.	所以，上世纪30年代发生的经济危机之所以如此萧条和具有毁灭性，正是因为意见的对立和冲突所导致，而不是源于经济运作中的技术性错误。


Responses to a crisis fall into two categories.	关于如何应对危机，目前有两种看法。


The first type aims at an institutional reordering, so that inefficiencies and perverse incentives are removed, and the economy functions more smoothly and efficiently.	第一种是重构秩序，提高效率，消除特权，保持经济运转的平稳有效。


The second, more radical approach, tries to improve not the economy but the way people themselves go about their lives.	第二种意见则更激进，不是考虑如何去提高经济，而是要试图改变人们的生活习惯和方式。


No institutional solution is purely neutral in its effects on relative incomes – and it is relative income and wealth around which political debate typically revolves.	没有一项机制上的解决方案在收入分配方面完全做到中立，而且政治辩论常常是围绕着相对收入和财富问题展开。


Bailout operations invariably bring bitter controversy because they help some but not others.	救市方案之所以遭致很大的争议，就是因为它只帮助了一部分而不是全部人群。


Rescuing automobile producers looks good to their employees and suppliers. But the costs must be borne by everyone, including firms that are not rescued – probably because they operate more efficiently – and are put at a competitive disadvantage as a result.	对汽车制造商的救助措施看上去对于其行业雇员和供应商是有益的，但救助的成本却必须要每个人来承担，那些没有被施以救济的公司，可能是因为这些公司运转得较好，但结果却是这些没有受益的公司被置于不利的竞争地位。


Such rescues, in short, appear to help big companies with bad managers.	实际上，类似这样的救助方案似乎是帮了那些由无能的管理者掌舵的大公司一把。


Small businesses will always complain that they do not have the organizational clout to extract public funds from governments.	小企业常常会埋怨他们无法获取政府公共资金的救助。


And bank bailouts, involving the direct use of public money to recapitalize failing institutions, are even more costly and politically unpopular.	银行救市方案是直接利用公共资本来资助衰败的机构，这种方案成本很高，政治上也不受欢迎。


Advocates of monetary stimulation sometimes argue that it is preferable because it is more neutral in its distributional effects, and that its benefits are spread more widely.	一些财政刺激措施的倡导者认为，在渠道上越多的投入,受益的范围就会更为广泛。


But monetary stimulus is often in reality just as selective as bailouts.	但现实中，这种方案和资金救市一样具有选择性。


The analogy popularized by the great monetarist economist Milton Friedman was that the central bank could always deal with deflationary problems by dropping money from a helicopter.	货币主义经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼做出的一种广为人知的类比是，中央银行总能通过从直升机上撒钱的做法来解决问题。


But, in the real world, not everyone is underneath the helicopter when it makes the drop.	但在现实世界中，并不是每个人都站在撒钱的区域内。


In fact, it is likely that the helicopter pilot will hover over friends and relatives when dropping the money.	实际上，直升机飞行员撒钱时，常常会在其亲友聚集的上空盘旋作业。


And even if the pilot is completely non-corrupt, the crowd on the ground will always assume that there is some hidden and partisan plan.	即使飞机员廉洁公正，地上的人们也会认为有幕后策划和歧视偏见的存在。


That has been precisely the problem with the aggressive provision of liquidity, quantitative easing, and the reduction of central bank interest rates used to address the current crisis.	如今的信贷政策如上世纪大萧条时一样，中央银行的存款利率实际为零。


In today’s credit crunch, as in the Great Depression, central banks lend at practically zero interest rates.	储蓄人几乎得不到任何利息。


Depositors are paid almost nothing on their deposits. But when businesses and consumers try to borrow, they find that it is very costly, if not impossible.	但企业和客户试图借贷时会发现贷款的成本很高，接近于不可能。


Lenders (the bankers) are suspicious, worried about creditworthiness, and demand high risk premia.	贷款银行带着怀疑的眼光审查借贷人的诚信度，并要求借贷人出具高风险的抵押本金。


As a consequence, in most countries, credit is still contracting.	所以在大部分国家，借贷仍然是很难办的事情。


In practice, it is only banks that have access to cheap borrowing, so they can reconstitute their balance sheets by borrowing cheaply and lending expensively.	现实中，只有银行能够低价借钱，所以银行通过低借入高贷出的方法重新整理了他们的资产负债表。


This is why banks suddenly look so unexpectedly profitable.	这是为什么银行突然获得高利润的回报。


But the contrast between bank profitability and the woes of everyone else turns up the political heat on the central banks, which have to explain why it is only their “friends,” the banks, who are standing under the helicopter when it drops money.	但是银行获利和大众痛苦的对比引发政治辩论，政府需要解释，在直升机撒钱时，为什么是仅仅是他们的朋友—银行站在飞机下方呢？


Frustration with the complexities of trying to provide ready fixes leads to attempts to find even more radical solutions.	对于如何救市，各种方案的复杂性会让人有挫败感，于是人们试图尝试一些更极端的做法。


Some try to deal with basic human proclivities, and to modify behavior to make people better.	有些人从人类的行为习惯出发，考虑通过改变人类行为来使人们生活得更好。


It is in times of crisis that Utopian ideas about ways of guaranteeing human happiness flourish, often claiming some scientific basis.	在危机发生的时代，保证人类幸福的乌托邦理念会盛行，而且往往会引用一些科学的依据。


For example, long before the financial collapse, experimental economists joined psychologists in attempting to measure varying propensities to greediness.	���如，早在经济危机爆发之前，实验经济学家就和心理学家一道，研究如何平衡人类的贪婪性。


Some evidence suggests that there is a link between the level of dopamine, addiction, and greedy behavior.	一些证据显示，在多巴胺荷尔蒙，上瘾和贪婪行为之间会有一些联系。


Since a common diagnosis of the problems generated in the financial services business holds that human greed is to blame, a German think tank recently suggested that people with a genetic proclivity to high dopamine levels should be barred from taking leading positions in financial institutions.	有一种普遍的看法是把金融行业产生的问题、归咎于人类的贪婪。 最近，德国的一个智库提出，那些在基因中多巴胺荷尔蒙含量高的人不应该在金融机构里担任领导岗位。


But such apparently attractive strategies aimed at making better people turn out to be exclusionary – and based on rather arbitrary testing.	然而，这些看上去很吸引人的战略想法虽意在把人变得更好，但结果却是排外性的，而不是建立在中立的试验之上。


If implemented, the German proposal would most likely exclude behavior that involves acceptable risk, as well as sidelining those who take wild and inappropriate decisions.	如果实施这种德国式的想法，在排除那些狂野和不合适决策的人之外，也往往会把那些可接受风险的行为也排除在外。


Both the institutional and the behavioral responses to a crisis are fundamentally problematical.  The search for technical solutions leads to political polarization, and may produce stalemate.	如何应对经济危机，上文从机制和人类行为两个角度探讨了解决方法。 这两种方法基本上都存在问题。


The search for deep human roots of the crisis, by contrast, leads to attempts to change human nature, which are futile – and also inherently much more dangerous.	寻找技术上的解决方案会导致政治上的两极分化，从而导致引发政治僵局的出现。 相反，从人类根源的深度去研究，会引入试图去改变人性，这也当然将是徒然的，同时从深层次上来看也更具危险性。


How Trump Would Weaken America	特朗普将如何削弱美国


CAMBRIDGE – Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presumptive US presidential nominee, has expressed deep skepticism about the value of America’s alliances.	坎布里奇——共和党推定的美国总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普已经表达了对美国联盟价值的深刻怀疑。


His is a very nineteenth-century view of the world.	他的这种世界观属于19世纪。


Back then, the United States followed George Washington’s advice to avoid “entangling alliances” and pursued the Monroe Doctrine, which focused on US interests in the Western Hemisphere.	那时候，美国采纳了乔治·华盛顿的建议避免“结盟”，并且奉行将美国利益专注于西半球的门罗主义。


Lacking a large standing army (and with a navy that in the 1870s was smaller than Chile’s), the US played a minor role in the nineteenth-century global balance of power.	由于缺乏大规模常备部队（19世纪70年代，美国海军的规模还比不上智利），美国在19世纪全球权力平衡中发挥的作用并不重要。


That changed decisively with America’s entry into World War I, when Woodrow Wilson broke with tradition and sent US troops to fight in Europe.	美国参与第一次世界大战彻底改变了那种状况，当时的伍德罗·威尔逊打破传统，派遣美国军队赴欧洲作战。


Moreover, he proposed a League of Nations to organize collective security on a global basis.	不仅如此，他还提出成立国际联盟，目的是在全球范围内完成协调集体安全的任务。


But, after the Senate rejected US membership in the League in 1919, the troops stayed home and America “returned to normal.”	但美国成为国际联盟成员国的提案于1919年被参议院否决，这些部队因此留在了国内，而且美国也“恢复了常态”。


Though it was now a major global actor, the US became virulently isolationist.	虽然已经成为举足轻重的全球参与者，但美国却坚持奉行致命的孤立主义。


Its absence of alliances in the 1930s set the stage for a disastrous decade marked by economic depression, genocide, and another world war.	20世纪30年代美国拒绝加入任何联盟导致那段时间灾难性经济萧条、种族灭绝和又一次世界大战轮番上演。


Ominously, Trump’s most detailed speech on foreign policy suggests that he takes his inspiration from precisely this period of isolation and “America First” sentiment.	糟糕的是，特朗普有关外交政策最详尽的讲话表明其灵感恰恰来源于这个孤立且崇尚“美国第一”情绪的时代。


Such sentiment has always been a current in US politics, but it has remained out of the mainstream since the end of World War II for good reason: It hinders, rather than advances, peace and prosperity at home and abroad.	这种情绪一直是美国政界的一种潮流，但因为非常充分的理由导致第二次世界大战结束以来一直未能占据主导地位：上述思潮阻碍、而不是促进国内外和平与繁荣。


The turn away from isolation and the beginning of the “American century” in world politics was marked by President Harry Truman’s decisions after WWII, which led to permanent alliances and a military presence abroad.	二战后哈里·杜鲁门总统在世界政治领域放弃孤立并开启“美国世纪”的决策导致了永久性的伙伴关系和海外军事存在。


The US invested heavily in the Marshall Plan in 1948, created NATO in 1949, and led a United Nations coalition that fought in Korea in 1950.	美国1948年投入巨资推行马歇尔计划、1949年创建北约并于1950年领导联合国盟军参与朝鲜作战。


In 1960, President Dwight Eisenhower signed a security treaty with Japan.	1960年，艾森豪威尔总统与日本签署安全条约。


American troops remain in Europe, Japan, and Korea to this day.	直到今天，欧洲、日本和韩国仍不乏美国的军事存在。


While the US has had bitter partisan differences over disastrous interventions in developing countries such as Vietnam and Iraq, there is a bedrock of consensus on its alliance system – and not just among those who make and think about foreign policy.	虽然美国在灾难性干预越南和伊拉克等发展中国家的问题上一直存在严重的两党分歧，但支持联盟体系的基础一直存在——况且这样的共识不仅限于外交政策制定者和智囊团。


Opinion polls show popular majorities in support of NATO and the US-Japan alliance.	民意调查显示多数民众支持北约和美日联盟。


Nonetheless, for the first time in 70 years, a major US presidential candidate is calling this consensus into question.	尽管如此，一位美国主要的总统候选人70年来首次对这项共识持质疑态度。


Alliances not only reinforce US power; they also maintain geopolitical stability – for example, by slowing the dangerous proliferation of nuclear weapons.	联盟不仅增强了美国的实力； 还能维护地缘政治稳定——比如通过减缓核武器的危险扩散。


While US presidents and defense secretaries have sometimes complained about its allies’ low levels of defense spending, they have always understood that alliances are best viewed as stabilizing commitments – like friendships, not real-estate transactions.	虽然美国总统和国防部长有时会抱怨盟国国防开支水平太低，但他们一直清楚联盟的首要作用是稳定承诺——这就好比是建立友谊，而不是交易房产。


Unlike the constantly shifting alliances of convenience that characterized the nineteenth century, modern American alliances have sustained a relatively predictable international order.	与19世纪特有的不断变换的权宜联盟不同，现代美国联盟一直维护着相对稳定的国际秩序。


In some cases, such as Japan, host-country support even makes it cheaper to station troops overseas than in the US.	在日本等某些国家，东道国的支持甚至使得美国海外驻军比国内更加便宜。


And yet Trump extols the virtues of unpredictability – a potentially useful tactic when bargaining with enemies, but a disastrous approach to reassuring friends.	而特朗普却宣扬不可预测性带来的好处——这��策略与敌人讨价还价时可能会起到作用，但用来让朋友放心却可能带来灾难性的后果。


Americans often complain about free riders, without recognizing that the US has been the one steering the bus.	美国人经常抱怨别人搭便车，但却没有意识到是美国在掌握方向盘。


It is not impossible that a new challenger – say, Europe, Russia, India, Brazil, or China – surpasses the US in the coming decades and takes the wheel.	新兴挑战者——如欧洲、俄罗斯、印度、巴西或中国在未来几十年超越美国控制方向并非全无可能。


But it is not likely, either.	但这种可能性其实并不大。


Among the features that distinguish the US from “the dominant great powers of the past,” according to the distinguished British strategist Lawrence Freedman, is that “American power is based on alliances rather than colonies.”	按照英国著名战略学家劳伦斯·弗里德曼的说法，在凸显美国不同于“以往主导大国”的各项特色中，最重要的是美国的实力基础是联盟而非殖民。


Alliances are assets; colonies are liabilities.	”联盟是一种资产； 而殖民则是负债。


A narrative of American decline is likely to be inaccurate and misleading.	有关美国衰落的陈述可能并不准确，容易对人产生误导。


More important, it holds dangerous policy implications if it encourages countries like Russia to engage in adventurous policies, China to be more assertive with its neighbors, or the US to overreact out of fear.	更重要的是，它可能造成危险的政治影响，导致俄罗斯等国采取冒险政策、中国在处理邻国关系时更为强势或美国出于恐惧而反应过度。


America has many problems, but it is not in absolute decline, and it is likely to remain more powerful than any single state for the foreseeable future.	美国的确存在很多问题，但还不是绝对的衰落，在可以预见的未来美国的实力很可能比其他任何国家都更为强大。


The real problem for the US is not that it will be overtaken by China or another contender, but that a rise in the power resources of many others – both states and non-state actors – will pose new obstacles to global governance.	美国真正的问题并不是被中国或其他竞争对手所超越，而是众多其他参与者（包括国家和非国家行为主体）权力资源的增加将阻碍全球治理的最新举措。


The real challenge will be entropy – the inability to get work done.	真正的挑战是达到熵值——即无法完成预定的工作。


Weakening America’s alliances, the likely result of Trump’s policies, is hardly the way to “make America great again.”	特朗普政策的结果很可能是削弱美国联盟，因此不太可能“让美国再次强大”。


America will face an increasing number of new transnational issues that require it to exercise power with others as much as over others.	美国将注定面临越来越多的新增跨国事务，需要与其他国家一道来行使权力，就像需要对其他国家行使权力一样。


And, in a world of growing complexity, the most connected states are the most powerful.	而且，在这个越来越复杂的世界，拥有最多关系的国家就拥有最大的力量。


As Anne-Marie Slaughter has put it, “diplomacy is social capital; it depends on the density and reach of a nation’s diplomatic contacts.”	正如安妮 - 玛丽·斯劳特所说，“外交是一种社会资本； 它取决于一个国家外交联络的覆盖面和密度。


The US, according to Australia’s Lowy Institute, tops the ranking of countries by number of embassies, consulates, and missions.	根据澳大利亚罗伊研究所的统计，美国大使馆、领事馆和使团的数量为全世界最多。


The US has some 60 treaty allies; China has few.	美国拥有约60个条约盟友； 而中国则聊聊可数。


The Economist magazine estimates that of the world’s 150 largest countries, nearly 100 lean toward the US, while 21 lean against it.	《经济学人》杂志估计在全世界150个最大国家中，有近100个对国家美国友好，仅有21个反对美国。


Contrary to claims that the “Chinese century” is at hand, we have not entered a post-American world.	与“中国世纪”近在咫尺的说法相反，我们尚未进入到后美国世界。


The US remains central to the workings of the global balance of power, and to the provision of global public goods.	美国仍处在全球权力平衡的中心，并在全球公共产品的供应中发挥主要作用。


But American preeminence in military, economic, and soft-power terms will not look like it once did.	但美国在军事、经济及软实力方面的地位将不会像曾经的那样显著。


The US share of the world economy will fall, and its ability to wield influence and organize action will become increasingly constrained.	美国在世界经济中的占比将会下降、而其施加影响和组织行动的能力将遭到削弱。


More than ever, America’s ability to sustain the credibility of its alliances as well as establish new networks will be central to its global success.	比以往任何时候相比，美国全球成功的核心是看其能否维持盟国的信任，以及能否建立新的联盟网。


Kenya’s Unity Test	肯尼亚的团结考验


NAIROBI – Kenya’s fiercely contested presidential election in March, and its disputed outcome, has left the victor, Uhuru Kenyatta, with a daunting challenge: to unite a country riven with ethnic violence and distrust.	内罗毕—肯尼亚3月份的总统大选火药味十足，结果也争议不休，这让获胜者肯雅塔（Uhuru Kenyatta）面临极大的考验：让这个饱受种族暴力和不信任摧残的国家团结起来。


Although this election was accompanied by far less violence than the previous presidential vote in 2007, the opposition candidate Raila Odinga’s second consecutive defeat has only re-enforced his supporters’ fears that they are once again being cheated out of power.	尽管这场选举到目前为止所伴随的暴力没有2007年的上一次选举那么激烈，但反对派候选人奥丁加（Raila Odinga）连续第二次败选再次激起了其支持者的恐慌——他们又一次被人设计而在权力之争中败北。


Kenyatta, a member of the dominant Kikuyu ethnic group, says that he wants to heal the country’s divisions, echoing the promise of his predecessor, Mwai Kibaki.	来自多数民族基库尤族的肯雅塔说，他希望弥合肯尼亚的分歧，这与其前任齐贝吉（Mwai Kibaki）的承诺异曲同工。


There is a simple way to start: combat the corruption and nepotism that characterize so much state employment.	起点很简单：整治国有部门普遍存在的腐败和裙带关系。


Kenyatta assumes power a half-century after his father, Jomo Kenyatta, led Kenya to independence.	肯雅塔的父亲约莫·肯雅塔五十年前领导肯尼亚赢得了独立。


The anniversary provides a reason to reflect on some of the country’s achievements and failings, especially in the field of education – the key to economic opportunity and professionalization of the public sector.	在独立五十年之际，有必要反思肯尼亚所取得的成就和失败，特别是教育领域——该领域是经济机会和公共部门专业化的关键。


During the colonial era, most of Kenya’s children were denied schooling.	在殖民地时期，大部分肯尼亚孩子得不到教育。


The post-independence government thus found itself having to hire vast numbers of teachers, many of them unqualified, to cope with the influx of black students attending school for the first time.	因此，在独立后，政府发现需要聘请大量教师来教导大量首次来到学校上学的孩子，而教师往往资质不够。


Today, however, there is an oversupply of trained teachers.	但是，如今受过培训的教师已经供过于求。


In fact, many of them can now only find work in neighboring countries such as South Sudan, which needs to fill shortages left by decades of conflict.	事实上，他们中有许多人现在只能去南苏丹等邻国寻找工作，几十年的冲突使那里存在大量教师短缺。


Investment in Kenya’s education system, along with economic reforms, and (until recently) relative political stability has undoubtedly helped the economy, which has grown by around 4-5% annually over the past decade, following long periods of stagnation.	毫无疑问，对教育系统的投资，以及经济改革和（到目前为止）相对稳定的政治环境帮助了经济，在经历了长期的停滞后，过去十年中肯尼亚经济每年以4—5%的速度增长。


By some definitions, around one-quarter of the country’s 44 million people are in the middle class.	从某些衡量标准看，肯尼亚4400万人中的约四分之一已经迈入中产阶级。


Compared with the rest of the region, the country’s key sectors – including education, transport, communications, agriculture, and tourism – are professionally managed and the envy of much of East Africa.	与地区其他国家相比，肯尼亚的关键部门——包括教育、交通、通信、农业和旅游——管理相当专业，令许多东非国家艳羡不已。


But the emergence of an increasingly educated population has also intensified the need for more skilled jobs.	但受教育人口的增加也强化了更高技能岗位的需求。


Unemployment is conservatively estimated at a staggering 40% of the workforce.	按保守估计，失业人数也高达劳动力总量的40%。


The government has promised to create jobs, but that is only part of the battle; it must also reform the way such jobs are filled.	政府承诺创造岗位，但这只是整个战役的一部分； 政府还必须改革获得岗位的方式。


Public-sector employment in Kenya is notoriously opaque.	肯尼亚的公共部门招聘暗箱操作盛行。


Kenyans typically complain that key positions are not advertised nationally (as required by law) until the employer has already found the “ideal” candidate.	肯尼亚人经常抱怨重要的位置在找到“理想”候选者之前是不会（按法律规定）公开招聘的。


Instead, vacancies are listed internally as temporary contracts, obviating the need for a national search.	相反，空位会作为临时合同岗位在内部上榜展示，绕开全国招聘的需要。


This makes it easy for a manager to hire a relative or friend, usually from a favored ethnic group.	这给管理者开启了雇用亲朋好友的方便之门，而他的亲朋好友往往来自他所喜爱的种族。


The candidate is then best placed to benefit when the temporary post is upgraded and advertised as a permanent position.	当临时岗位被升级，作为永久岗位全国招聘时，候选者就取得了极为有利的竞争位置。


There are even instances in which two managers will contrive to hire each other’s relatives to evade nepotism charges.	甚至在有些情形中，两名管理者设法雇用对方的亲属，以避免裙带指控。


The system is hardest on first-generation graduates who lack a highly placed relative to help them into the workforce; they are often left with no option but to pay a hefty bribe to advance their careers.	这套体系对于第一代学校毕业生来说最难打破，他们缺少身居高位的亲戚帮他们找到工作； 因此别无办法，只能重金贿赂以打通职业道路。


Unsurprisingly, the way state jobs are filled, from the presidency down, has become a source of deep and widespread bitterness.	毫不奇怪，自总统以下，国有岗位的入职方式已成为深而广的怨恨之源。


The Kenyatta government could go a long way toward addressing the problem with one very practical measure: establishing and supporting an independent watchdog to audit hiring and promotion decisions in official agencies.	肯尼亚政府可以用一个相当实际的措施纠正这一问题：建立并支持独立监管机构，审计官方机构的招聘和升值决定。


The vetting process that Kenyans observed being applied to recent cabinet appointments should be extended throughout the public sector (and also to private entities that win state contracts).	肯尼亚人所目睹的、用于最近内阁提名的审核程序应该扩大到整个公共部门（以及获得国有合同的私人实体）。


An independent watchdog would require all employers to demonstrate that their hiring practices are transparent, competitive, and meritocratic.	独立监督机构将要求所有雇主证明其招聘行为透明、竞争、任贤不认亲。


Such an agency need not be expensive.	这样一个监督机构花不了多少钱。


Its very existence, and the threat of random investigations, would serve as an effective deterrent against malpractice – just as random audits deter tax evaders.	其存在的事实，以及随机调查的威胁，足以形成对不法行为的有效威慑——正如随机审计威慑逃税者。


Whistleblowers, encouraged to come forward by legal protections enshrined in the agency’s founding legislation, would provide leads for the investigators.	该机构的成立法案应嵌入保护告密者条款，受此鼓励，告密者将促成调查。


Kenyatta has a chance to steer Kenya away from the ethnic tensions that have plagued its society and economy.	肯雅塔有机会让肯尼亚告别破坏该国社会和经济的种族对峙。


By introducing and implementing fairness and transparency to public-sector recruitment, and ensuring that appointments are based on talent, not ethnic or family connections, Kenyans may become less fearful about their political leaders’ origins.	通过在公共部门招聘中引入和实施公平和透明，并确保任命以才华而不是种族和家庭关系为准绳，肯尼亚人可以不再担心政治领导人的血统。


They may also grow more confident that their skills will be properly deployed in a fast-growing economy, further spreading the prosperity that many fellow citizens have only recently started to enjoy.	他们还能更有信心地相信他们的技能将合理地部署于快速增长的经济中，进一步传播许多通报才刚刚开始享受的繁荣。


How United Is \	\


Seen from the point of view of the European Union's longtime member states, the eight postcommunist countries that - together with Cyprus and Malta - joined the EU on May 1st seem united in their positions on most important issues.	从欧盟长期成员国的观点来看，五月一号加入欧盟的8个后共产主义国家-再加上塞浦路斯和马耳他-似乎在大多数重大问题上立场统一。


Indeed, since the US intervention in Iraq, many West Europeans see the EU's new members from Europe's East as something of a bloc.	的确，自从美国入侵伊拉克以来，许多西欧人将来自欧洲东部的欧盟新成员国看作一个阵营。


US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's division of Europe into "new" and "old" was, above all, a clever ploy that helped the Bush Administration get its way by using the old strategy of "divide and rule."	首先，美国国防部长唐纳德•拉姆斯菲尔德将欧洲划分为"新"与"旧"两部分是一个聪明的策略。 它帮助布什政府在欧洲继续实施"分而治之"的老战略。


But, although it reflected real differences between established EU members and the newcomers, it also managed to solidify the false impression that the EU's new members share a similar identity and political agenda.	然而，这种简单划分虽然反映了欧盟资深成员和新成员之间真正的差别，但也同样强化了一种欧盟新成员（与资深成员）享有相似的身份和政治议程的错误印象。


Rumsfeld's remarks were divisive because Western Europe seems to know even less than the Americans about Europe's eastern half.	拉姆斯菲尔德的言论具有分裂作用，因为西欧对其欧洲东部另一半的了解似乎还不如美国人。


In reality, big differences exist among the new EU members.	实际上，在欧洲的新成员国之间也存在着巨大的差别。


Even with regard to Iraq, there was little unity.	甚至在对伊拉克的问题上它们也很难统一立场。


While some countries - say, Poland - strongly supported America's war effort, others tried to balance their support for the US with their "understanding" of the views of Germany and France.	一些国家-如波兰-坚定地支持美国的战争行动，其它一些国家则试图以对德、法观点的"理解"来平衡对美国的支持。


Still others - for example, Slovenia - stood on the side of "old Europe."	还有一些国家-如斯洛文尼亚-则站在"旧欧洲"一边。


Beyond politics, there are vast differences among the economies of the new members, not only in terms of wealth, but also in their structures.	在政治之外，新成员国的经济不仅在富裕程度，还在结构方面都有巨大的差别。


Industrialized and urbanized countries, with relatively small agricultural sectors, such as the Czech Republic, Slovenia, or Slovakia, have different concerns than Poland, where farmers form 20% of the population.	在工业化和城市化（程度较高）而农业所占比重相对较小的国家，如捷克共和国、斯洛文尼亚或斯洛伐克，其所关注的重点与农业人口占20%的波兰就有所不同。


Historical traditions also play a role.	历史传统同样发挥着影响。


Although all new member states claim to be "western," some are more Western than others.	虽然所有的新成员国都宣称自己是"西方"的，但其西方化的程度也各有不同。


The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia and parts of Poland share a common legacy of Mitteleuropa , formed during the Hapsburg Empire.	捷克共和国、斯洛伐克、匈牙利和波兰的一些部分分享着共同的在哈布斯堡帝国时期所形成的中部欧洲（ Mitteleuropa ）遗策。


Moreover, communism in those states was different than that practiced in the three Baltic countries, which were part of the Soviet Union.	此外，在上述国家曾经实行的共产主义也与属于前苏联阵营的3个波罗的海国家不同。


At the start of the 1990's, following communism's fall, the common experiences and the shared legacy of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland were behind the idea of creating the so-called "Visegrad Group," with the aim of coordinating the three countries' efforts to join the EU and NATO.	自20世纪90年代开始，随着共产主义的失败，共同的经历和共有的遗策就成为捷克斯洛伐克、匈牙利和波兰创建所谓"维谢格拉德集团" （Visegrad Group）的推动力。 建立该集团的目的是为了协调三国加入欧盟和北约的努力。


The Visegrad initiative worked to some extent, though it was temporarily paralyzed by the disintegration of Czechoslovakia just over a decade ago.	维谢格拉德行动虽然由于捷克斯洛伐克十年前的分治一度陷于瘫痪，但也产生了一定的效果。


Although the leaders of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia recently declared they wanted to keep the Visegrad grouping alive even after their countries' enter the EU, the future of Visegrad cooperation is uncertain.	虽然波兰、匈牙利、捷克共和国和斯洛伐克的领导人最近纷纷表示即便在加入欧盟以后也要继续保持维谢格拉德集团的活力，但维谢格拉德合作的前景却并不明朗。


In fact, the fate of this group is perhaps the best example of how individual identities of the new member states are beginning to assert themselves now that membership in the EU and NATO are secured.	事实上，该集团的命运可能就是新成员国在确定了它们的欧盟和北约成员身份之后如何开始张扬其个体身份的最佳例证。


Poland, as its stance over the EU constitution demonstrated, pursues its own specific interests in a united Europe, which may be difficult to harmonize with the interests of smaller Central European states.	正如其对于欧洲宪法的立场所表明的那样，波兰在一个统一的欧洲的前提下追求自身的利益。 这样的利益可能不容易与较小的中欧国家的利益融合。


Once in the Union, Poland will have an even freer hand, unconstrained by the need to support the aspirations of other East European countries.	一旦加入欧盟，波兰会更加放开手脚，不再顾虑支持其它东欧国家的意愿。


Some advocates of a closer Visegrad cooperation criticize Poland's emerging strategy, while euroskeptics in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia applaud the Poles.	一些主张更密切的维谢格拉德合作的人士对波兰的这种战略苗头提出批评，而捷克共和国、匈牙利和斯洛伐克反对欧盟整合的人（Euroskeptics）却对波兰人的做法拍手赞同。


For example, the Czech Civic Democratic Party, heavily influenced by Czech President Vaclav Klaus, describes Poland as the Czech Republic's chief ally and an example of how new members should approach the EU.	例如，深受捷克总统瓦克拉夫•克劳斯影响的捷克公民民主党将波兰形容为捷克共和国最重要的盟友和新成员国应该如何接近欧盟的范例。


The situation could become even more complicated, because some leaders in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia would like to join the "hard core" of European integration should some European states one day decide to create a two-speed Europe.	如果有一天一些欧洲国家决定创造一个两种速度的欧洲，那么捷克共和国、匈牙利和斯洛伐克的一些领导人则想要加入欧洲一体化的"硬核"，这会使情况更加复杂化。


If these countries join the hard core of European integration, while others, Poland in particular, opt to stay out, it would create a dividing line between them, burying Visegrad cooperation.	如果这些国家加入了欧洲一体化的硬核，而其它国家，特别是波兰选择不加入，那么在它们之间就会出现一条分化线从而葬送维谢格拉德合作。


Regardless of what happens, all Europe needs to get past clichés about "old" versus "new" Europe.	不管事态如何发展，整个欧洲都应该摒弃"旧"欧洲对"新"欧洲的陈词滥调。


Poland may find that it has security and other interests in common with some states of a similar size in the current EU.	波兰可能会发现它和现欧盟的其它大小相近的国家在安全及其它方面有着共同的利益。


The three Baltic states will most likely cooperate much more closely with the Scandinavian countries than with the other new members.	而3个波罗的海国家则更会与斯堪的纳维亚国家而不是其它新成员国更紧密合作。


It is also time to start thinking about a new way of organizing Central Europe.	现在也是思考组织中欧的新方略的时候了。


For the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia, close cooperation with Poland may not be the best way to protect their interests in the EU, as their interests and the interests of a big, self-confident Poland may not be identical.	对于捷克共和国、匈牙利和斯洛伐克而言，与波兰的紧密合作并不一定是保护它们在欧盟的利益的最佳方式。 因为它们的利益与���个人口众多而充满自信的波兰的利益可能并不相同。


It may be more natural for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia to strive for closer regional cooperation with Austria and Slovenia, the contours of which can already be seen in some existing regional groupings.	捷克共和国、匈牙利和斯洛伐克或许应该更自然地与奥地利和斯洛文尼亚展开更紧密的地区性合作。 这种合作的轮廓已经在一些现有的地区性分组中显现出来。


Such a regional group would be bound together by a long common history and compatible interests.	这样的地区性集团会以长期共同的历史和一致的利益为纽带。 这样的结合会比维谢格拉德集团更加有效和持久。


This would be much more effective and durable than the Visegrad initiative, which lumps together three small states with a country that has more inhabitants than its three partners put together, plus its own agenda.	维谢格拉德集团只是将三个小国和一个大国叠加在一起。 三个小国的总人口还不如大国多，况且这个大国在政治上与它们也是貌合神离。


How Will Tomorrow’s Scientists Learn?	未来的科学家们如何学习？


I was recently invited to speak at science-related meetings on two consecutive days in different places in Europe.	最近我连续两天被邀请到欧洲的两处，在与科学有关的会议上进行演讲。


One was the official opening of a network of science centers in Vienna, linking decentralized activities in an interactive exhibition that tour Austria.	一个会议是在维也纳举行的科学中心网络的正式开幕，该网络以互动展览的形式将分散的科学活动联系起来在奥地利巡回。


The other was the Science Festival of Genoa, Italy, a young and hugely successful event with exhibitions and high-profile speakers throughout the ancient town.	另一个会议是意大利热那亚科学节，一个年轻而成功的活动，其间在这个历史悠久的城市里有许多的展览和名家演讲。


What struck me on both occasions was the sustained, and evidently successful, attempt to reach out to the two target groups upon whom the future of science and technology will depend.	让我印象最深刻的是两个活动中那种不遗余力且显然成功的吸引科技的未来所必须依靠的那两个目标群体的努力。


The first group is teenagers, who are deeply interested in all the new technologies and gadgets that surround them.	第一个群体是对身边所有新技术和新玩意都充满浓厚兴趣的青少年。


They have made these technologies an integral part of their lives, but their relationship to science has remained distant.	他们已经使这些技术成为生活中不可或缺的一部分，但他们和科学的关系仍然是疏远的。


The other target audience consists of younger children, whose openness and inborn curiosity have not yet been stifled by formal schooling.	另一个目标群体就是儿童，他们的开放心态和与生俱来的好奇心还没有被正规的学校教育扼杀。


The success of Europe’s newly established science centers and festivals in reaching their potential audiences reflects their invention of a new way of teaching and learning.	欧洲新近设立和开展的科学中心和节日在吸引潜在观众群方面的成功反映了教与学方面的创新。


They have succeeded in setting up a largely informal learning environment, focusing mainly on truly interactive learning.	这些活动已经成功地设立了以真正的互动式学习为核心的非正式的学习环境。


By soliciting questions from children that have little place in the formal educational system, the audience is led to experience the research process – which often begins precisely by asking the right kind of question.	通过从儿童那里征集那些在正规教育体系中几乎没有立锥之地的问题，观众被引领去体验研究过程—这通常恰恰是由提出正确的问题开始的。


Although we will need more such informal learning environments in the future, politicians and the public have hardly noticed.	虽然我们将来会需要更多这一类的非正式学习环境，但政客和公众似乎都还没有意识到。


Gone are the utopian dreams of the 1970’s, when there were visions of life-long learning and paid leaves of absence to pursue topics that might be useful for further professional advancement – or might also include the sheer luxury of studying ancient Greek or Assyrian art.	1970年代那种乌托邦式的梦想已经不复存在。 当时我们的愿景是终身教育和用来寻求可能帮助未来职业发展的研究课题的带薪假期—抑或是那种研究古希腊或亚述艺术的奢侈。


But the need for some kind of continuous learning has become even more obvious today, in a world driven by the forces of globalization.	但是某种形式继续教育的需求在当今这个被全球化力量驱动的世界却变得更为迫切。


The relentless competition for talent and skills is being underscored daily by the increases in R&D investment in China and India, whose growing middle classes are only too keen to seek better educational opportunities for their children.	中国和印度在研发方面投入的增加每天都在提醒着我们人才和技能方面的严酷竞争。 两国日益壮大的中产阶级不惜代价地为自己的子女寻求更好的教育机会。


Talent is now recognized as a scarce commodity that needs to be nurtured for a worldwide market of skills and competencies.	人才现在已经被认为是一种需要为全球性的技能和竞争力市场培育的稀缺商品。


“The battle for brainpower,” as  The Economist recently put it, has begun.	正如《经济学人》最近所言，“脑力的战争”已经打响。


It is fairly safe to predict that learning in a knowledge-intensive society will continue at a heightened pace, both at the workplace and outside of it. It will be facilitated through Web-based social software, through wikis, blogs, and similar developments as much as through new, “open source” business models.	可以比较肯定地预言，在一个知识密集型的社会，学习在职场内外都会继续深入，并通过基于网络的社会软件、维基、博客和类似的新型“开放源代码”的商务模式而变得更加便利。


These are informal structures, even if they have owners and access to them is regulated.	即便是在权有所属和接入方式被监管的情况下，这些也是非正式的结构。


The corporate world – indeed, the formal workplace more generally – can no longer be strictly separated from the informal world in which work and leisure have become blurred.	公司的世界—的确，更广泛地说是正式的职场—再也不能和非正式的世界截然分割。 在非正式的世界里工作和娱乐的界限变得模糊了。


Just as formal schooling needs to become better integrated with the informal learning environments to which our children are exposed in multiple ways, formal and informal learning must mesh in a life-long process.	正如正规的学校教育需要与非正规的学习环境更好的融合让我们的儿童拥有更多元的学习方式一样，正规和非正规的学习必须契合为一个终身的过程。


Science and technology have an enormous stake in this development, and worldwide competition for the best brains is already acutely felt in European universities.	科学与技术在这一发展进程中至关重要。 世界范围内的最佳人才争夺，已经让欧洲的大学有了深刻体会。


This year’s Nobel Prizes highlighted once more that the research climate in the United States continues to be more conducive to scientific excellence compared to what Europe has to offer.	今年的诺贝尔奖再次说明美国的研究氛围相较于欧洲更有利于实现科学的卓越。 欧洲最近也有新举措以培养科学的卓越。


Initiatives aimed at fostering scientific excellence in Europe, like one recently launched in Germany that officially defined three universities, all in the southern part of the country, as “excellent”(qualifying them for extra funding), seek to make universities more attractive and thus more competitive.	如德国最近就正式认定位于南部的三所大学为“优秀”（从而有资格获得更多的资金支持），从而增加这些学校的吸引力以致竞争力。


While such efforts certainly point in the right direction, the research-friendliness and innovativeness of the wider societal environment – particularly practices of informal learning and opportunities to follow one’s curiosity – also matter.	这样的举措当然指明了正确的方向，然而研究友好性和更广泛社会环境中的创新性—特别是非正规教育的实践和遵循自己好奇心的机会—同样重要。


When, beginning in the nineteenth century, book publishing became not only a lucrative business, but also made books increasingly affordable to many more households, the sources of learning in society exploded.	在十九世纪初，当书籍出版不仅是一项有利可图的生意，还使书籍能以日渐低廉的价格进入千家万户的时候，社会的学习资源便出现了爆炸式的发展。


Indeed, the societal wealth created through the Industrial Revolution is partly due to this new diffusion of knowledge and skills.	的确，工业革命所创造的社会财富在很大程度上要归功于这种知识和技能的新型传播。


Seeing the excitement that can be generated in young people through events like science festivals and networks of science centers gives rise to cautious optimism – provided we seize the diversity of opportunities that informal learning offers.	看到能够通过科学节和科学中心网络这样的活动在年轻人当中激发的热忱，我感到了谨慎的乐观—前提是我们抓住非正规学习所提供的多元化机会。


Informal learning implies a messy, unruly, and potentially subversive process.	非正规学习意味着混乱、难于管束和潜在的颠覆式的过程。


But it also promises to nurture the creative ferment in which great science thrives.	但它也承诺为我们铺下能让伟大的科学繁荣的创造性土壤。


How Women Go Bankrupt	女性是如何走向破产的


As the world struggles to emerge from the economic near-collapse of last fall, there is one sub-group that has slid below the waterline in record numbers: formerly middle-class women.	正当世界经济努力挣扎着从去年秋天的崩溃边缘中恢复过来之际，我们的社会中却有一个亚群体正以破纪录的数量滑向收入水平线以下：这些人就是那些昔日的中产阶级妇女。


A new report shows that a million American middle-class women will find themselves in bankruptcy court this year.	最近新鲜出炉的一份报告显示，美国将有一百万中产阶级妇女面临破产。


This is more women than will “graduate from college, receive a diagnosis of cancer, or file for divorce,” according to the economist Elizabeth Warren .	对此经济学家伊丽莎白·沃伦（ Elizabeth Warren ）则指出，这个数量比“从大学毕业，得癌症或者申请离婚”妇女数量还要庞大。


Their plight, symptomatic in many ways of the plight of women around the world, holds lessons for us all.	而这些妇女的困境，作为世界各地妇女所面临的各种困境的一种代表性问题，值得我们去深刻反思。


These bankrupt women are better educated than their male counterparts: most have some college; and more than half own their own homes.	这些濒临破产的女人要比同龄的男性受到过更好的教育，她们中的大部分人都上过大学，超过一半的女性拥有自己的物业。


What tipped them from middle-class lifestyles to incomes just above the poverty line were likely to have been one or all of three factors.	而她们之所以从中产阶级的生活水平沦落到收入仅高于贫困线的境地，归根结底可能是以下三个因素（或者其中之一有关）。


Two are economic, and, for many women, the third may be emotional.	其中两个因素是经济上的，第三个因素对于大多数女性来说可能是情感上的。


First, these women tend to be awash in debt.	首先，这些女性都是负债累累。


Just about everyone spent above their means in the recent bubble, but middle-class women have a special relationship to debt.	虽然在近年的泡沫经济中，几乎每个人都在以超过其承受能力的水平四处花费，但中产阶级的女性与债务则有着一种更为特殊的联系。


Many of them have jobs that require them to dip into credit lines just to stay afloat.	其中许多人因为工作的原因必须维持大量透支的生活方式。


But others have been successfully targeted by luxury-goods manufacturers and credit-card companies, which benefit from the way that mass culture ties certain kinds of consumerism – the latest designer clothes, this season’s “it” bag, the right highlighting, and even the trendiest sports car – into a narrative of successful femininity.	而另一些中产女性则被奢侈品生产商和信用卡公司成功地锁定了，大众文化把某些消费主义（如最新潮的时装，当季的流行背包，各种首饰或是时髦的运动型跑车）与成功女性的典范形象捆绑在了一起，而这些生产商和公司则从中大肆渔利。


Nor is this pressure confined to the United States.	其实这种压力并不仅仅存在于美国。


New middle classes are emerging globally, and magazines like Cosmopolitan and Vogue are targeting newly middle-class women in India and China – many of them part of a generation with its own disposable income for the first time ever in their family histories – with the very same luxury goods.	新的中产阶级正在全球范围内如雨后春笋般的涌现，而《 Cosmopolitan 》 和《 Vogue 》等杂志则瞄准了印度和中国新兴的中产阶级女性 —— 其中许多人属于在自己家族的历史上首次可以自由支配自己收入的一代。


The second reason that a million US women have filed for bankruptcy is that legislation enacted in 2005 now pits individual women – who can’t afford costly legal advice – against credit-card companies in terms of who gets paid first when ex-husbands owe delinquent credit-card payments and child-support payments.	而第二个导致一百万女性破产的因素是，在当前夫拖欠信用卡欠款和儿童抚养费时，妻子和信用卡公司谁将首先获得支付的问题上， 2005 年颁布施行的法规使得作为个体的女性 —— 即那些无法支付高昂法律咨询费的女性 —— 与信用卡公司处在对立的位置之上。


These pressures are serious, and both are discussed publicly.	这些压力都是十分沉重的，而以上两个因素也都已经被公开讨论过。


But there is frequently a third factor in middle-class women’s economic stress, one that is seldom publicly addressed, much less measured.	但在中产阶级女性的经济压力中通常还有第三个经常出现的因素，一个很少被公开讨论的，也难以衡量的因素。


It has to do with many middle-class women’s emotionally complex expectations and projections about money.	这个因素与许多中产阶级女性对金钱的冲动而又复杂的期望和估计有关。


In the young women’s leadership program that I help to run at the Woodhull Institute, we regularly see that middle-class women, more often than working-class women, find it embarrassing to talk about money.	在我在伍德哈尔研究所（ Woodhull Institute ）协助举办的一个年轻女性领导者项目中，我们常常会发现中产阶级女性要比工薪阶层女性更羞于谈论金钱问题。


When they do bring it up – to employers, for example – they use apologetic, self-defeating language.	当她们不得不与别人（比如雇主）谈及这个问题时，她们的言词往往会变得笨拙甚至对自己不利。


They are reluctant to negotiate salaries and rarely know how to do so.	她们不愿就收入进行协商，也几乎不知道怎么协商。


They believe that asking for money in exchange for their labor makes them “unfeminine.”	她们认为以她们的劳动来要求换取金钱使得她们显得“不够女性化”。


They frequently assume that working twice as hard as those around them – while never speaking up for their own worth or accomplishments – will generate a raise because an authority figure will notice.	这些女性经常会假定，只要比周围的人付出多一倍的努力 —— 但坚决不为她们自己的价值或成就辩护 —— 就会带来收入的提高，因为自己的上级会看在眼里的。


Moreover, these women tend to have unrealistic notions about their economic paths.	不仅如此，这些女性也似乎对她们的经济前景抱有不切实际的观念。


Young, middle-class women often fail to save because they assume – still – that marriage will rescue them financially.	年轻的中产阶级女性无法进行储蓄是因为她们认为 —— 而且现在依然认为 —— 结婚能够在经济上拯救她们。


As a result, they often see buying trendy shoes or a great haircut – rather than giving some money each month to a broker – as an “investment” in their romantic futures.	结果，她们经常把花钱购买时髦的鞋子或者发型上，并把这看作是对她们浪漫未来的一种“投资” —— 而不是每月留出一些钱交给自己的投资经纪人。


And the familiar cliché is all too often true: older middle-class women fail to become financially literate in their own households, leaving brokerage accounts, pension accounts, taxes, life insurance, and so on to their husbands.	请记住，以下这一陈词滥调往往是正确的：如果把投资账户，养老金账户，税单，人寿保险等等都留给她们的丈夫来处理，年龄较大的中产阶级女性仅仅在家庭中是无法学到财务知识的。


This leaves them economically vulnerable when divorce or widowhood strikes.	而当遭遇离婚或寡居时，这将导致她们在经济上非常脆弱。


Paradoxically, we have found that working-class women (and women of color) rarely harbor such economically problematic structures of denial.	而恰恰相反，我们发现工薪阶级妇女（还有有色人种妇女）很少对这些个人财务问题的解决方案感到排斥。


They tend to be more ready than middle-class white women, in our experience, to master the basics of financial literacy and to learn salary negotiation, because they don’t have the luxury of assuming that a knight on a white horse will rescue them economically.	她们比中产阶级的白人妇女更愿意去掌握基本的财务知识，并学习就薪酬进行协商，因为她们没有那种奢侈的幻想，幻想会有一位王子骑着白马翩翩而来，然后在经济上拯救她们。


Indeed, the financial pragmatism of working-class and poor women is the reason for the successes in the developing world of micro-financing that puts money in their hands.	不错，正是工薪阶层妇女和贫穷妇女的这种财务实用主义使得小额融资计划（把钱交到她们的手上）在发展中国家获得了成功。


It would surprise me if middle-class women anywhere in the world – brought up to view certain forms of economic ignorance and naiveté as socially appropriate – could, without climbing a steep learning curve, be as reliable and hard-nosed as the world’s poor and working-class women consistently prove themselves to be.	如果世界上所有地方的中产阶级妇女 —— 她们自小便被教育把某种程度的经济无知���天真看成是合理的 —— 在没有经过深入学习的情况下就能如世界上的贫穷妇女和工薪阶级妇女所不断表现出的那样可靠和顽强，我将会吃惊不已。


The new book Financial Intimacy , by Jacquette Timmons, a talented financial coach who focuses on women, offers truths that would have been valuable to any of the middle-class women now in crisis.	雅凯特·蒂蒙斯（ Jacquette Timmons ），这位专门教导女性财务知识的天才教练所写的新书《财务上的亲密感》，为所有当前正处于危机中的中产阶级女性提供了一些宝贵的真理。


“Many women today earn significantly more than women in previous generations,” she writes.	她写到“今天，很多女性赚到的钱比她们的上一代人多得多。


“But, ironically, that hasn’t necessarily resulted in a higher degree of financial security,” owing to the “don’t talk about money taboo.”	但讽刺的是，这却没有带来更高的财务安全，”而原因就在于“那种不愿意多谈钱的忌讳思维”。


When middle-class women anywhere in the world get over this taboo, we will do so by understanding that money is never just about money, and that becoming financially literate means pushing back against a social role that casts middle-class women as polite, economically vague, underpaid, shopping-dazed dependents.	当世界各地的中产阶级妇女摆脱了这种思维，认识到金钱并不仅仅只是货币，认识到获取财务知识意味着拒绝把中产阶级女性塑造成彬彬有礼的，对经济一塌糊涂的，收入低下的，盲目购物的社会依赖者角色的时候，我们也能够摆脱这种迷思。


All the other awful pressures that are driving so many women into bankruptcy will still exist, but at least more women will be facing these pressures with their eyes wide open, and, one hopes, with many better options.	所有其他促使如此多的妇女陷入破产的沉重压力依然会继续存在，但至少越来越多的女性会用开阔的视野来面对这些压力，而我也希望，女性也能有更多更好的选择来应对这些压力。


Japan’s Secret Demographic Weapon	日本秘密人口武器


NEW YORK – As the annual World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings get underway in Tokyo, Japanese leaders must confront an unfolding demographic disaster.	纽约—随着世界银行、国际货币基金组织年度会议在东京拉开帷幕，日本领导人必须面临一场人口灾难。


Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research recently forecast that by 2060, the country will have lost nearly one-third of its 2010 population of 128 million, and just half of this smaller population will be between 15 and 65 years old – the most productive age group in any economy.	最近，日本国家人口和社会安全调查局预测，2060年日本人口总数将会减少到2010年（128000000）的三分之二左右，且15到65岁人群——无论在何种经济下，这个年龄段的人都是最有成效的——比例只有一半。


These are the kinds of numbers usually produced by wars and epidemics, and they imply both a dramatic drop in the number of young people able to provide for their elders and a much greater debt burden for a country that is already carrying one of the world’s heaviest.	通常情况下，这些数字只有在战争或者疾病流行时才会产生的。 这一方面意味着能够赡养老人的年轻人在急剧减少，另一方面，日本本来就是世界上负债最严重的国家之一，这使他们的负担更加严重。


To solve this problem, Japan’s political leaders have three options: find some way to raise the country’s birthrate dramatically, open a long-insular society to a wave of immigrants, or finally unveil the country’s secret weapon – the energy, talents, and ingenuity of Japanese women.	为了解决这个问题，日本政治领导人有三个选择：寻求迅速提高国家出生率的方法； 开放长期与世隔绝的社会状态，接受大量的移民浪潮；


Opening the country to a surge of immigrants makes sense, but Japan is not about to become an American-style melting pot, and this solution alone would be inadequate to the scale of the demographic challenge.	开放国家接受移民是有效的办法，但是日本并不打算和美国一样，成为一个大熔炉，并且仅仅靠这个方法不能解决人口结构缺陷这么大的挑战。


Foreigners make up less than 2% of Japan’s population, and a United Nations report from 2001 found that Japan would need inflows averaging 609,000 immigrants per year until 2050 to maintain the percentage of its working-age population.	移民占日本总人口的不到2%，而2001年联合国的一项报告显示，日本要想在2050维持工作年龄人口比重不变，就必须平均每年接受609000移民.


That is why Japanese policymakers should prioritize drawing more women into the workforce.	这就是日本决策者应该优先把更多的妇女引入劳动力的原因。


For the moment, things are moving in the wrong direction.	当前，事情朝着错误的方向进展。


Japan slipped from 80th place in the World Economic Forum’s gender-gap rankings in 2006 to 98th in 2011, a worrying sign that a critical opportunity is being missed.	在2011年世界经济论坛上，日本的性别差异排名从2006年的80下降到98���，这意味着他们正在丧失一个重要的机遇，令人很担忧。


For women in the workplace, Japan remains the Saudi Arabia of the developed world.	在职业女性这一方面，日本就好像是发达国家中的沙特阿拉伯。


The first step toward reversing this trend could be to create work environments that are better suited to the needs of Japanese women, and that promote their talents.	想改变这一趋势，首先应该创造一个适合日本女性的工作环境，这样可以提高她们的才能。


Government officials have taken modest steps in this direction, but culture and inertia remain powerful obstacles.	在一方面，日本政府官员已经采取了相应的措施，但是文化和惯性仍然是强有力的障碍。


Still, the prize for getting this right is worth the effort.	但是，使这个重新走上正确的方向还是值得努力的。


A 2010 Goldman Sachs study concludes that an increase in female labor-force participation rates to parity with men would add 8.2 million workers to Japan’s economy, virtually erase the projected decline in the country’s working-age population, and boost GDP growth by 15%.	2010年，高盛公司的计算表明，将女性劳动力市场参与度提高到和男性相当的水平可以以为日本带来8200000的劳动人口，几乎抵消预计减少的劳动人口，同时让GDP增加15%。


The problem is not that Japanese women lack opportunities for higher education; the university enrollment rate for 18-year-old women already exceeded that of men in 2005.	问题并不在于日本女性缺乏接受高等教育的机会，2005年，日本18岁女大学生大学入学率就已经超过了男生。


But just 65% of women with college degrees are now working.	但是65%接受过高等教育的女性都不在工作。


One problem is that working for Japanese firms often requires both long hours on the job and post-work socializing with colleagues – customs that make life harder for working mothers.	一个问题是，在日本公司上班，你不但得花很长的时间在工作上，也得花很长的时间与同事社交，这一习俗让职业母亲很辛苦。


But Japanese men, who spend less time caring for children than fathers in most other industrialized countries, could share more of the responsibilities of parenting.	但是，与世界上大多数工业国家相比，日本男性照看孩子的时间相对较少，她们可以承担更多的母亲照料工作。


Better work-life balance would benefit both men and women.	工作和生活的平衡对男性和女性都有利。


And increasing the availability of affordable child care would help, too.	儿童看护负担的下降和供给的增加也将有所助益。


Those who resist feminizing the workforce might argue that doing so would mean fewer children – and thus a new demographic complication.	抵制劳动人口女性化者会说，这会减少孩子的数量，进而引发新的人口问题。


But the evidence suggests otherwise.	但是证据表明正好相反。


OECD countries with higher female labor-force participation rates also have higher birth rates.	在经合组织国家中，更高的女性劳动力市场参与度意味着更高的生育率。


Japan’s birthrate has already fallen to just 1.37 children per female, far below the level that would keep the population constant.	日本的生育率已经下降到每个女性只生育1. 37个孩子，远远低于保持人口稳定的水平。


Beyond the cultural obstacles, Japanese policymakers could take many concrete steps.	除了文化障碍，日本决策者可以采取许多具体的措施。


According to Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, 54.7% of women were employed on a non-regular basis in 2011.	根据日本厚生劳动省的数据，2011年，日本54. 7%的妇女无稳定职业。


Officials could encourage employers to offer women permanent, full-time positions, rather than all-too-common temporary contracts, which mean lower pay, less stability, and a lack of opportunity for advancement.	政府官员可以鼓励雇主为女性提供长久的全职岗位，而不是目前普遍存在的工资低，稳定性差，升职的机会少的临时工合同 。


More important, current tax policies that reinforce women’s over-representation in temporary contract work should be changed.	更重要的是，日本应该改变当前的纳税政策。 在现行政策下，女性员工的临时性合同比例太高。


Both the OECD and the Goldman Sachs study identify rules that discourage women from working.	经合组织和高盛的调查都发现了阻碍女性工作的规定。


A “special dependent” exemption that could be claimed by heads of households (mainly men) for dependents (mainly women) who earned less than about $12,000 per year was eliminated in 2004, but a “dependent” exemption still remains.	户主（主要是男性）因为有年收入低于12 000美元的从属（主要是女性）而获得的“特殊从属”免税在2004年被废除，但是“从属”的免税依然有效。


Policymakers could also find creative ways to increase the odds that women will return to the labor market after having children.	决策者还可以找到创造性的方法提高机会女性产后回到劳动市场的机会。


They could close Japan’s salary gender gap – wider than in any OECD country except South Korea – in part by establishing rules that reward performance rather than seniority.	他们可以消除日本的工资性别差异——比除韩国外的所有经合组织国家都大。 一个可行的办法是建立按绩效而不是资格给予报酬的规则。


And they could help to create credible opportunities for women to rise to leadership positions.	还可以帮助创造让女性晋升到领导职位的机会。


Opening Japan to more immigrants could help it to meet its demographic challenge. But the more durable solution is already inside the country.	开放日本接受移民可以帮助日本接受人口挑战，但是更有效的方法在于日本国家本身。


The Chávez Way	查韦斯道路


LONDON – I remember the exact date of my visit to Venezuela.	伦敦—我清晰地记得我访问委内瑞拉的日子。


I was sunbathing by the pool on the roof of the Caracas Hilton.	我在加拉加斯希尔顿酒店屋顶泳池边晒日光浴。


A waiter came up to me and mumbled something about a bomb attack in New York.	一位侍者走来，嘴里嘟囔着炸弹袭击纽约什么的。


I rushed to my room and saw the news footage, endlessly replayed, of two airplanes crashing into the World Trade Center.	我直奔房间看新闻，电视里一遍又一遍地播放着两架飞机撞入世贸中心的画面。


I was in Venezuela on September 11, 2001, to attend a conference on the “Third Way.”	2001年9月11日，我身在委内瑞拉参加名为“第三条道路”的会议。


Hugo Chávez was very interested in the Third Way – a modus vivendi between American-style capitalism and state socialism – as had been Tony Blair a few years earlier.	查韦斯对第三条导论饶有兴趣——即介于美国式资本主义和国家社会主义之间的生活方式，比布莱尔对此产生兴趣早了好几年。


Chávez himself, dressed in fatigues, briefly graced the meeting with his presence, receiving a heavy volume of Marxist texts from an elderly professor.	查韦斯本人身穿工作服，在会议上略一现身，一位老教授送了他厚厚一册马克思主义著作。


A day earlier, I had had lunch at the Venezuelan central bank, sitting next to the deputy governor, Gastón Parra Luzardo.	一天前，我在委内瑞拉央行进午餐，坐在我身旁的是副行长卢萨多（Gastón Parra Luzardo）。


He told me that all Venezuelans believed that they had been born with a “loaf under their arm” – that is, a right to a share in the country’s oil revenues.	他告诉我，委内瑞拉人认为他们是“握着面包出生的”——意思是他们有权从该国石油收入中分一杯羹。


As a result, no one worked hard.	因此，没人努力工作。


An economist, Orlando Ochoa, explained that rent-seeking dominated the Venezuelan economy.	一位叫奥乔亚（Orlando Ochoa）的经济学家解释说，寻租主导了委内瑞拉的经济。


Oligarchs fight to keep control over the oil revenues, populists promise to redistribute them, and both groups steal as much as they can for themselves.	寡头集团为把持石油收入而斗争，民粹主义者承诺重新分配石油收入，两大集团都竭尽所能为自己攫取最大的好处。


No one is interested in creating wealth.	没人对创造财富感兴趣。


“No one,” I wrote in my diary, “believes that Chávez will last his full term.	“没有人”，我在日记中写道，“认为查韦斯能当满一届任期。


They see him as a damaging buffoon, rather than as a dangerous revolutionary.”	他们把他看跳梁小丑，而不是危险的革命家。


In fact, a coup against him was attempted a year later.	”事实上，一年后就发生了针对他的政变。


He survived it, and went on to win a second, a third, and then a fourth term.	他解决了政变，获得了第二次、第三次、和第四次任期。


The debate over Chávez’s political legacy is a posthumous re-enactment of the ideological battles that were fought while he was alive.	关于查韦斯政治遗产的争论可谓他身前意识形态斗争的死灰复燃。


The battle for his economic legacy is more straightforward: it comes down to how he managed Venezuela’s oil wealth.	他的经济遗产之争更加直观：如何管理委内瑞拉的石油财富。


Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, and Chávez’s economic strategy depended on harnessing that wealth in order to address his country’s social problems.	委内瑞拉拥有世界上最大的石油储量，而查韦斯的经济策略依赖于利用这笔财富解决国内的社会问题。


The first few years of his rule were dominated by his struggle to gain control of the country’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA.	他执政的最初几年一直忙于夺取委内瑞拉国有石油公司PDVSA的控制权。


Upon reasserting political control in 2003, Chávez fired 40% of PDVSA’s staff.	在2003年重掌政局的过程中，查韦斯炒掉了PDVSA 40%的员工。


His hostility to foreign players in the industry (he expropriated several American oil companies’ holdings in 2007) limited investment and held back production.	他对石油行业外资的敌意（2007年，他没收了数家美国石油公司的控股权）抑制了投资，拖累了产量。


Chávez turned PDVSA into a personal fiefdom and used it as a cash cow; many of his social programs were funded directly from the company’s budget.	查韦斯将PDVSA变为私人禁脔和现金奶牛； 他的众多社会事业直接从公司预算中获得资金。


Starved of cash, PDVSA was forced to cut back on maintenance and expansion, which increased the number of accidents and limited production.	由于缺乏现金，PDVSA被迫缩减维持和扩张支出，这增加了事故数量，限制了产量。


Thanks partly to Chávez’s policies, Venezuela is still a small player in the global oil market, with less than a 3% share of world production.	部分由于查韦斯的政策，委内瑞拉仍然只是全球石油市场上的小角色，只占全世界产量的不到3%。


It is therefore vulnerable to price fluctuations, and has to follow the lead of Saudi Arabia and other big OPEC producers.	因此，委内瑞拉极易受价格波动影响，只能跟在沙特和其他欧佩克产出大国后面亦步亦趋。


Though Venezuela’s non-oil sector has been growing, oil still provides the vast majority of its dollar earnings.	尽管委内瑞拉的非石油部门也在成长，但石油仍然提供着大部分美元收入。


For the past decade, booming oil prices have spurred economic expansion, with only a short break following the financial crisis of 2008.	过去十年中，石油价格的上涨刺激了经济扩张，只在2008年金融危机后出现了短暂的停歇。


Yet stumbling oil-export performance and a sharp rise in infrastructure-related imports, combined with an explosive growth in public spending, have fueled consistently high levels of inflation, with the annual rate now at more than 20%.	但石油出口表现的回落、基础设施相关进口激增以及公共支出的爆炸式增长导致委内瑞拉通胀居高不下，当前年通胀率高达20%以上。


This has put immense pressure on Venezuela’s dollar-pegged currency, the bolívar.	这给盯住美元的委内瑞拉货币玻利瓦尔造成了极大的压力。


In early 2013, the government was forced to announce a 32% devaluation, and stopped issuing government debt in dollars.	2013年初，委内瑞拉政府被迫宣布贬值32%并停止发行美元国债。


The issuance of dollar bonds was a major source of abuse, with speculators buying dollar debt at the official exchange rate, selling it for greenbacks, and then exchanging them for bolivars at a much higher rate on the black market.	美元债券的发行是滥用的主要源头，投机者以官方汇率买入美元债券，卖出后获得美元，然后以高得多的黑市价格兑回玻利瓦尔。


With limited access to global capital markets, Chávez turned to China for loans, backed by sales contracts for oil.	由于无法接触全球资本市场，查韦斯不得不向依靠石油销售合同中国请求贷款。


Loans from the China Development Bank carry higher interest rates than the West’s traditional lending mechanisms, but they also come with fewer restrictions on policy, and allowed Venezuela to escape the worst of the bondholders’ wrath – at least so far.	中国国家开发银行的贷款利率比西方传统借贷机制更高，但政策限制更少，也使委内瑞拉避免了债权人的暴怒——至少到目前是如此。


Where has the oil wealth gone?	那么委内瑞拉的石油财富哪儿去了？


Chávez’s social programs were the biggest beneficiaries.	查韦斯的社会事业是最大的受益者。


He used to go around the villages writing checks to poor farmers.	他常常走到农村，现场签发支票给贫苦农民。


The most reliable data suggest that he was successful at reducing inequality; during his rule, Venezuela’s Gini coefficient, a 100-point scale measuring income inequality, fell from 50 to 39, the biggest decline in Latin America.	最可靠的数据表明，他成功地减少了不平等性； 在他执政期间，委内瑞拉的基尼系数（衡量收入不平等性的百分制指标）从50下降至39，是拉丁美洲国家中下降幅度最大的。


Poverty was cut in half – from 50% to around 25% of the population, while extreme poverty fell by two-thirds.	贫困被消灭了一半——人口比重从50%降至约25%，极端贫困更是减少了三分之二。


One can hardly say that every céntimo was well spent.	当然，并不是每一分钱都花在了刀刃上。


Cronyism was rife and the murder rate tripled, partly owing to corruption in the police and the justice system.	任人唯亲的现象稀松平常，谋杀率上升了三倍，部分是因为警察和司法体系的腐败。


Chávez’s petro-diplomacy sometimes took bizarre forms, like providing cheap bus travel for Londoners to please London’s left-wing mayor, Ken Livingstone.	查韦斯的石油外交有时令人匪夷所思，比如为伦敦人提供廉价公交以取悦伦敦左翼市长列文斯顿（Ken Livingstone）。


Despite his extravagancies and authoritarian style, the masses loved him.	尽管他又奢侈又独裁，但人民仍然爱戴他。


They fervently believed that he was on their side, and voted overwhelmingly for him up to the end, even when they knew that he was dying of cancer.	他们坚信他站在他们一边，一直一边倒地支持他，即使在得知他因癌症而生命垂危时仍是如此。


He is sure to enter the pantheon of Latin American heroes.	毫无疑问，查韦斯将作为拉丁美洲英雄被人铭记。


And what about the Third Way?	那么第三条道路呢？


In the aftermath of the collapse of communism, Chávez’s mix of anti-Americanism and state activism seemed merely eccentric.	共产主义破产后，查韦斯的反美主义+国家行动主义的组合看起来颇为古怪。


There could be no alternative to free markets and the neoliberal Washington Consensus – or so it appeared.	这不可能成为自由市场和新自由主义华盛顿共识的替代品。


But the rise of China, the relative decline of the United States, the long boom in commodity prices, and the Western financial collapse of 2008 have created space for political and economic experiments.	但中国的崛起、美国的相对衰落、商品价格的长期繁荣以及2008年西方金融危机为政治和经济实验创造了空间。


Chávez took advantage of that opening, and Chávezism may well prove to be a significant phenomenon far beyond its Latin American homeland.	查韦斯利用了这一机会，查韦斯主义可能将成为影响范围远远超过拉丁美洲的重要风景。


The Inflation of Hugo Chávez	查韦斯的通货膨胀


MEXICO CITY – Supporters of Hugo Chávez, the recently deceased Venezuelan president, and even many of his critics, have repeatedly emphasized two supposed achievements that will burnish his legacy.	墨西哥城—刚刚去世的委内瑞拉总统查韦斯的支持者，甚至还有许多他的批评者，都一再强调他身前的两大成就。


First, the share of people living in poverty plummeted to approximately 28% in 2012, from a peak of 62% in 2003 (though it was 46% three years earlier, at the beginning of Chávez’s first term).	首先，生活在贫困线之下的人民的比例从2003年的峰值62%下降到了2012年的约28%（尽管在其第一个任期之初这一比例为46%）。


Second, he gave to a majority of Venezuelans a sense of identity, pride, and dignity long denied them by a corrupt, elitist, light-skinned oligarchy.	其次，他给大部分委内瑞拉人带来了身份认同感、自豪感和尊严，而在此前腐败的精英主义浅肤色寡头政治下，人民是感觉不到这样的感觉的。


Both claims, however, are only partly true, and only partly account for Chávez’s recurrent electoral victories – 13 of 14 popular votes, including referenda.	但是，这两种看法都是片面的，也只是查韦斯一再获得大选胜利的部分原因——他在包括全民公投在内的14次普选中胜出13次。


As for the first claim, both The Economist and the Nobel laureate Mario Vargas Llosa were right to put Chávez’s achievement in perspective.	对第一个看法，《经济学人》（Economist）和诺贝尔奖获得者略萨（Mario Vargas Llosa）正确地指出，查韦斯的成就应该放到长远框架来看待。


Almost every country in Latin America has reduced poverty significantly since the beginning of this century, with the extent of progress depending on baselines and cut-off dates, good years and bad years, the reliability of official data, and other factors.	进入21世纪以来，几乎每个拉美国家都大大降低了贫困率，程度各有不同，但那是由于起讫期的不同、好光景和坏光景交替、官方数据可靠性和其他因素造成的。


The reasons for this progress are well known: with the exception of 2001 and 2009, these were boom years for commodity-exporting countries like Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and, of course, Venezuela, as well as for manufacturing-based economies, like Mexico.	如此进步的原因众所周知：除了2001年和2009年，21世纪是商品出口国的繁荣期，巴西、阿根廷、秘鲁、智利，当然还有委内瑞拉都是如此，墨西哥等制造业立国的经济体也是增长迅猛。


Furthermore, during these nearly 15 years, most governments have managed their accounts responsibly: small or no fiscal deficits, low inflation, well-targeted anti-poverty programs, and so on.	此外，近15年来，大部分政府都相当负责：财政赤字规模很小或不存在，通货膨胀率低，实施了精确定向的扶贫计划，等等。


This has helped to lower not only poverty, but also inequality, Latin America’s traditional scourge.	这不仅让贫困率有所下降，拉美的传统弊端——不平等性也有所改善。


According to the economist Nora Lustig, between 2000 and 2010, “income inequality…declined in all 17 Latin American countries for which comparable data exist.”	据经济学家拉斯蒂格（Nora Lustig）的数据，2000—2010年间“在所有17个可获得可比数据的拉美国家，收入不平等性……都有所下降。


The decline was especially pronounced in the three largest countries – Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina – which comprise nearly 75% of the region’s population.	”最大的三个国家——巴西、墨西哥和阿根廷，它们的人口数量占整个拉美地区的75%——的成就尤为显著。


One difference in Venezuela is that Chávez spent more than $1 trillion to achieve the same feat – in a country with a population one-sixth the size of Brazil’s and slightly more than one-quarter the size of Mexico’s.	委内瑞拉的一个不同之处是查韦斯花了1万多亿美元才完成了相同的成就，而这个国家的人口只有巴西的六分之一或墨西哥的四分之一略多。


While the long-term viability and effectiveness of conditional cash-transfer programs in Brazil and Mexico is questionable, these anti-poverty initiatives certainly are better designed than Chávez’s massive, blanket subsidies on everything from poultry and flour to housing and gasoline.	尽管巴西和墨西哥的有条件现金转移支付计划的长期可靠性和效率尚存疑虑，但这些扶贫措施断然比查韦斯的大规模一揽子补贴——从家禽和面粉到住房和燃料无所不包——更加合理。


Then there is the destruction of Venezuelan industry, the spectacular increase in violence, the explosion of foreign debt, and the depletion of foreign-currency reserves that has accompanied Chávez’s so-called “Bolivarian socialism of the twenty-first century.”	委内瑞拉的工业被破坏，暴力事件显著上升，外债激增，外汇储备蒸发殆尽，这些都伴随着查韦斯的所谓“21世纪玻利瓦尔社会主义”。


None of these problems has afflicted the region’s other large countries – or at least not to anywhere near the same extent.	拉美地区的其他大国均没有这些问题——或者程度不像委内瑞拉那样严重。


If Chávez had not played with the numbers, as demagogues and populist leaders tend to do, the results would be more disheartening.	如果查韦斯不像煽动政治家和民粹主义领袖那样不玩弄数字，委内瑞拉的结果将十分令人沮丧。


The second argument in defense of Chávez’s legacy is a bit more robust, but not much.	为查韦斯辩护的第二个看法更为有理，但也乏力。


True, Venezuela’s immense natural riches have been exploited and often squandered by elites more accustomed to the boulevards of Miami than to the slums of Caracas.	诚然，委内瑞拉的丰富的自然资源由习惯迈阿密林荫大道更甚于加拉加斯贫民区的精英开采并（通常）挥霍着。


But it is equally true that Venezuela enjoyed 40 years of democratic rule before Chávez, under the 1958 Punto Fijo Pact, whereby two parties, one social democratic and the other social Christian, alternated in power peacefully.	但委内瑞拉在查韦斯之前因1958年菲霍角协议（Punto Fijo Pact）而经历了40年的民主，社会民主党和社会基督党两党和平轮流执政也是���实。


Venezuela also boasted one of the region’s most vibrant civil societies, with some of its freest and most vigorous media.	委内瑞拉还坐拥拉美地区最有活力的公民社会以及最自由、最有力的媒体。


With the exception of the Caracazo – a wave of protests against free-market reforms in 1989 that resulted in an estimated 3,000 deaths – there were only minor bouts of repression.	除了加拉加索事件外（Caracazo，1989年的反自由市场改革的抗议潮，造成约3000人死亡），只发生过零星小规模镇压。


To be sure, large swaths of Venezuelan society rightly felt excluded from the country’s cozy elite consensus and insular governing arrangements, and resented it immensely; but an aspiring middle class comprised roughly half the population.	诚然，委内瑞拉社会的很大一部分认为自己不属于该国养尊处优的精英意识和与世隔绝的治理安排之内，并对这两者深恶痛绝； 但朝气蓬勃的中产阶级占据着近一半的人口。


Chávez exploited – and widened – that division; indeed, as the current campaign to elect his successor shows, the country remains more polarized than ever.	查韦斯利用了——并且扩大了——这一分歧，当前选举其继任者的选战表明，委内瑞拉比以往任何时候都要两极分化。


It may well be that Chávez’s purported feats and popularity will outlast him.	极有可能，查韦斯自夸的壮举和支持度会在他身后延续。


Instead of a simple rotation of elites in power, perhaps what occurred during his time in office was the advent of political leadership that looks, talks, worships, and loves like the people of the country – leadership that identifies with and benefits the millions of Venezuelans who previously were marginalized.	或许不会发生简单的精英重新掌权的现象，查韦斯执政时期的所作所为将是未来领导层所见、所论、所推崇，所爱戴的，就像委内瑞拉人民一样——这是一种给予数百万从前被边缘化的委内瑞拉人身份和好处的领导方式。


In that case, Chávez’s designated successor, Nicolás Maduro, will make short work of opposition candidate Henrique Capriles in the upcoming election.	果真如此的话，查韦斯的指定接班人马杜罗将在即将到来的选举中轻松击败反对派候选人卡普里莱斯（Henrique Capriles）。


Chavismo will outlive Chávez.	查韦斯主义将在查韦斯身后继续发扬光大。


But, whatever the outcome, all the mourning and embalming will not alter a simple fact: Venezuela and its people are not clearly better off than they were 14 years ago.	但是，不论结果如何，哀伤也好、让查韦斯遗体永受瞻仰也好，都改变不了一个简单的事实：委内瑞拉和委内瑞拉人民的境况并没有比14年前的好多少。


And whatever modest improvements they may feel in their lives were also secured elsewhere, at a far lower economic and political cost.	他们所感到的些许生活改善，在其他国家同样发生了，而且为此付出的经济和政治成本远比委内瑞拉低廉。


Human Change We Can Believe In	我们信奉的人类变化


Montreal – A recent symposium on evolution in Montreal posed to high-school students and university professors the following question: “Do you think that humans are still evolving?”	蒙特利尔——蒙特利尔最近召开的研讨会向高中生和大学教授提出了如下问题：“您认为人类是否还在进化？


Approximately 80% of the audience answered “no.”	”约有80%的受众答案是“否”。


Indeed, there is an almost universal belief that, with multifaceted cultures and intricate technology, humans have freed themselves from the pressures of natural selection.	其实，人们普遍认为有了多元化的文化和精密复杂的技术，人类已经成功地摆脱了自然选择。


Recent findings, however, show otherwise.	但最近的研究却得出了相反的结果。


Far from providing immunity against evolutionary pressures, culture often creates new ones.	文化不仅不能使人彻底摆脱进化的压力，反而会产生新的进化因素。


For example, the genes associated with digestion of lactose are more prevalent in populations that have traditionally bred cattle and consumed milk.	比方说，乳糖消化基因更普遍地存在于一直饲养奶牛并饮用牛奶的人群中。


In scientific reviews in Nature Genetics and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, the evolutionary biologist Stephen Stearns and his colleagues set out to demonstrate that natural selection operates on contemporary humans.	进化生物学家斯蒂芬·斯特恩斯及其同事在《自然遗传学》 和 《美国国家科学院院刊》上登载科学评论，证明现代人仍然无法摆脱自然选择的进程。


Supported by extensive genealogies, including centuries of church and national health registries, their argument is convincing.	他们的结论有大量族谱、包括延绵数百年的教堂和国家医疗记录为证，因此说服力很强。


Indeed, contrary to the widely held assumption that evolution takes millennia to manifest itself, recent evidence suggests that its effects can become visible as quickly as in a few generations.	其实，最近的证据表明进化过程并不像原来所想的那样需要几千年才会显现，而是最快只需要几代人就可以看出效果。


Rapid evolutionary change, or “contemporary evolution,” is not drastic; humans are not likely to sprout wings a few generations down the road.	短期内的进化演变，或者叫“现代演变”并没有惊人之处，人类并不会在经过几代人的繁衍后就长出翅膀。


Rather, these evolutionary effects are difficult to detect, as they are reflected in a population’s genetic composition.	相反，这些进化影响很难被人察觉，因为人类的遗传基因组成会悄然发生变化。


Contemporary evolution requires a specific set of conditions.	现代进化需要满足特定的条件。


First, the population must comprise individuals with varying characteristics, or traits.	首先，人群中必须包含特征及特质各异的人。


Moreover, members of the population must differ in terms of survival rates, including, most important, lifetime reproductive success (LRS) – the total number of offspring that they produce over a lifetime.	另外，不同个体必须表现出不同的生存率，生殖成功率（LRS）——也就是有生之年繁衍后代的总量就是其中最重要的指标。


These conditions are fundamentally linked: different values for a particular trait translate into diverse survival rates.	这些条件从根本上相互联系：某种特质者的不同数量导致生存率有所不同。


This crucial link facilitates change in a trait’s average value over successive generations.	经过几代人的繁衍，这种关键联系会改变具有相关特质者的平均数。


For example, if larger individuals produce more children than smaller ones, the number of larger individuals would grow, thereby increasing the average size of individuals in the population.	打个比方，如果体格强壮的人比体格瘦小的人繁衍出更多的后代，那么体格强壮的人数将会增加，从而提高人群中个体的平均健壮程度。


The most significant changes occur when individuals at one end of a trait’s value are heavily favored, pushing the entire population in that direction.	当某种极端特质的人明显受青睐时发生的变化最为显著，从而推动人类整体向那个方向进化。


Prevalent human traits are often strongly associated with LRS.	普遍的人类特质往往与生殖成功率密切相关。


For example, people who first reproduce at a younger age tend to have more children, so selection generally favors those who become parents earlier.	打个比方，年轻时就生育的人往往会有更多的后代，因此自然选择往往有利于早育的父母。


Tall women’s LRS tends to be lower, while tall men’s is higher.	高个女性的生殖成功率通常较低，而高个男性则相反。


In a recent study, research psychologist Markus Jokela and his colleagues took this link further, connecting LRS to personality.	最近的一项研究中，心理学家马库斯·约凯拉和及其同事进一步拓展了这种联系，从而将生殖成功率与个性挂钩。


According to Jokela, selection pressure favors people of both sexes who are extroverted, open to experience, and less anxious.	约凯拉认为，性格外向、开放、较少焦虑的男女在面对选择压力时更加从容。


Moreover, women who are agreeable and less meticulous do better reproductively, while these qualities do not affect men’s LRS at all.	另外，性格随、不斤斤计较的女性具有更强的生殖力，而上述特质对男性的生殖成功率没有任何影响。


Even certain cultural traits, such as income and wealth, can be connected to LRS: in men, the link is positive; in women, it is negative.	就连收入和财富等特定的文化特质都会影响到生殖成功率：对男性的影响是积极的，对女性则正相反。


But translating selection pressure into evolutionary change requires another crucial ingredient: the variation observed in the trait should be caused at least in part by genetic differences.	但选择压力转化为进化演变还需要另外一个关键元素：显性的特质变化至少应当部分归结于基因的不同。


Indeed, evolution is possible only if the resemblance between related individuals has a genetic basis, and is not simply a reflection of a shared environment.	其实，只有当相关个体相似度具备遗传基础，而并非仅仅是共同环境使然时进化才成为可能。


For example, siblings do not have to grow up together for their resemblance to be evolutionarily meaningful, owing to their common genes.	比方说，兄弟姐妹不一定非要一起长大才会表现出进化相似度，而这要归功于他们共同的基因。


Even when it comes to morphology, personality, and life-history traits – such as age at sexual maturity and fertility – related individuals’ likeness often has a genetic basis.	即使牵涉到形态、个性和性成熟及生殖力等各项生活史特征，相关的个体相似度往往可以找到遗传原因。


The conditions required for rapid evolutionary change to occur in human populations exist.	发生短期进化演变的条件同样存在于人群中。


But, given that measurable alterations in a trait over time can occur for many reasons – including those related to shared culture or environment – or randomly (“genetic drift”), studies demonstrating this phenomenon are rare.	但鉴于包括共同文化或环境——或随机因素（“基因漂变”）在内的多重原因均可造成某种特质随时间推移发生可以衡量的变化，因此证明这种现象的研究非常罕见。


Today’s challenge is to isolate the diverse sources of change.	区分各种变化的来源是人类今天所面临的挑战。


Recently developed statistical tools have finally made this possible.	最新研发的统计工具终于让实现这一目标成为可能。


With more sophisticated methods, my colleagues and I were reliably able to distinguish genetic changes, and thus to demonstrate an evolutionary shift toward a younger age at first birth in a small, insular population in Québec over the last 140 years.	我和我的同事们利用更复杂的方法准确地分辨出基因的变化，从而证明了过去140年在魁北克的小部分孤立人群中出现了朝向初产年龄较低者的进化转移。


This discovery challenges another fundamental myth: evolutionary change necessarily benefits the species.	这项发现撼动了另一项根本性的神话：那就是进化改变必然有利于整个物种。


In fact, evolution simply increases the average individual’s reproductive success – with potentially damaging demographic consequences.	其实，进化只是简单地增��了平均个体的生殖成功率——而且可能造成破坏性的人口后果。


So, while contemporary evolution is occurring, adaptation may not always lead to a better life.	因此，在现代进化发生时，一味地适应或许并不能带来更好的生活。


Air Pollution’s True Costs	空气污染的真正成本


PARIS – Air pollution takes years off people’s lives.	巴黎—空气污染让人们少活好多年。


It causes substantial pain and suffering, among adults and children alike.	它能引起巨大的疼痛和痛苦，成人和儿童都不能幸免。


And it damages food production, at a time when we need to feed more people than ever.	它还威胁粮食生产，而我们现在比以往任何时候都需要粮食养活更多的人。


This is not just an economic issue; it is a moral one.	它不仅仅是一个经济问题； 也是一个道德问题。


Air pollution can be produced both outdoors and indoors.	室外和室内都可能产生空气污染。


For the poorest families, indoor smog from coal- or dung-fired cooking stoves is typically the more serious problem.	对最贫穷家庭来说，来自燃煤和燃粪炉灶的室内烟尘的问题常常更加严重。


As economies develop and start to electrify, motorize, and urbanize, outdoor air pollution becomes the bigger issue.	随着经济的发展和电气化、机动化和城市化的开始，室外空气污染成为更大的问题。


Cleaner technologies are available, with the potential to improve air quality considerably.	我们已经拥有更加清洁的技术，有望大幅提升空气质量。


But policymakers tend to focus myopically on the costs of action, rather than the costs of inaction.	但决策者总是目光短浅地纠结于行动的成本，而不是不作为的成本。


With economic growth and rising energy demand set to fuel a steady rise in emissions of air pollutants and rapidly rising concentrations of particulate matter (PM) and ozone in the coming decades, this approach is untenable.	经济增长和能源需求的增加将让空气污染物排放稳步增加，并迅速提高未来几十年中颗粒物（PM）和臭氧的集中程度，因此，这样的方针不可取。


A new OECD report, The Economic Consequences of Outdoor Air Pollution, estimates that outdoor air pollution will cause 6-9 million premature deaths annually by 2060, compared to three million in 2010.	新的经合组织报告《室外空气污染的经济后果》（The Economic Consequences of Outdoor Air Pollution）估算，到2060年，室外空气污染将造成600—900万起过早死亡，而2010年为300万。


That is equivalent to a person dying every 4-5 seconds.	即每隔4—5秒钟就有一人死亡。


Cumulatively, more than 200 million people will die prematurely in the next 45 years as a result of air pollution.	以总量计，未来45年将有2亿多人因为空气污染而过早死亡。


There will also be more pollution-related illness.	还会出现更多的与污染有关的疾病。


New cases of bronchitis in children aged 6-12 are forecast to soar to 36 million per year by 2060, from 12 million today.	到2060年，预计6—12岁儿童支气管炎发病率将达到每年3,600万起，而今天是1,200万。


For adults, we predict ten million new cases per year by 2060, up from 3.5 million today.	至于成人，我们预测到2060年将达到每年一千万起，目前为350万。


Children are also being increasingly affected by asthma.	儿童还越来越受到哮喘的影响。


All of this will translate into more pollution-related hospital admissions, projected to rise to 11 million in 2060, from 3.6 million in 2010.	所有这些都导致与污染有关的住院病历增加，预计到2060年将增加到1,100万，而2010年为360万。


These health problems will be concentrated in densely populated areas with high PM concentrations, especially cities in China and India.	这些健康问题将集中在PM集中度较高的人口稠密地区，特别是中国和印度的城市中。


In per capita terms, mortality is also set to reach high levels in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus region, and other parts of Asia, such as South Korea, where aging populations are highly vulnerable to air pollution.	以人均计，东欧、高加索地区和亚洲其他部分（如韩国等老龄化人口极易受到空气污染影响的国家）的致死率也将达到很高的水平。


The impact of air pollution is often discussed in dollar terms.	空气污染的影响常常用美元为标准进行衡量。


By 2060, 3.75 billion working days per year could be lost due to the adverse health effects of dirty air – what economists call the “disutility of illness.”	到2060年，每年将有37. 5亿个工作日因为空气肮脏所导致的不利健康影响而损失——经济学家称之为“疾病的负效用”。


The direct market impact of this pollution in terms of lower worker productivity, higher health spending, and lower crop yields, could exceed 1% of GDP, or $2.6 trillion, annually by 2060.	到2060年，每年因为空气污染所带来的工人生产率降低、健康指出增加和粮食产量下降的市场影响可能超过GDP的1%，或2. 6万亿美元。


Massive as they are, however, the dollar figures do not reflect the true costs of air pollution.	但是，尽管美元数字如此巨大，却并没有反映空气污染的真正成本。


Premature deaths from breathing in small particles and toxic gases, and the pain and suffering from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, do not have a market price.	因为吸入微粒或有毒气体而过早死亡，以及因为呼吸和心血管疾病而遭受痛苦，这些成本都没有市场定价。


Nor does the experience of constantly inhaling foul-smelling air, or forcing your child to wear a face mask just to play outside.	长期吸入难闻空气，或迫使你的孩子出门就要戴面具的体验也没有市场定价。


These burdens weigh far more heavily on people than any price tag can represent.	这些成本给人们所造成的负担远远不是价格标签所能体现的。


Nonetheless, the truth remains that policymakers tend to respond more to hard figures than to abstract experiences.	尽管如此，真相依然是决策者总是倾向于对硬数字而不是抽象的体验做出反应。


So the OECD examined myriad economic studies on air pollution to quantify what people’s health is worth to them.	因此，经合组织考察了汗牛充栋的空气污染经济学研究，对人们的健康的价值进行量化分析。


On average, individuals would be prepared to pay around $30 to reduce their annual risk of dying prematurely by one in 100,000.	平均而言，个人愿意拿出大约30美元将其过早死亡的年度风险降低十万分之一。


Using well-established techniques, these “willingness-to-pay” figures were converted into an overall value of premature deaths caused by outdoor air pollution, as illustrated, for example, in the OECD’s Mortality Risk Valuation in Environment, Health and Transport Policies.	使用成熟的技术，这些“支付意愿”数字可以转化为因室外污染引起的过早死亡的总价值。 经合组织的《环境、卫生和交通政策致死风险评估》（Mortality Risk Valuation in Environment, Health and Transport Policies）对此作了分析。


By that measure, the global cost of premature deaths caused by outdoor air pollution would reach a staggering $18-25 trillion a year by 2060.	根据这一指标，到2060年，全球因为室外空气污染而导致的过早死亡的成本将高达每年18—25万亿美元。


Arguably, this is not “real” money, as the costs are not related to any market transactions.	你可以说这不是“真”钱，因为这些成本不与任何市场交易相关。


But it does reflect the value people put on their very real lives – and the value they would put on policies that would help to delay their very real deaths.	但它确实反映了人们给自身生命的估价——以及他们给有助于推迟货真价实的死亡的政策的估价。


It is time for governments to stop fussing about the costs of efforts to limit air pollution and start worrying about the much larger costs of allowing it to continue unchecked.	政府应该停止纠结于遏制空气污染的措施的成本，转而担心放任空气污染而不治理所带来的远远更大的成本。


Their citizens’ lives are in their hands.	他们的公民的生命掌握在他们手中。


Kehidupan yang Bebas dan Setara	自由而平等地生活


MADRID – Dalam seperempat abad sejak publikasi pada tahun 1990 mengenai Laporan Pembangunan Manusia yang pertama (Human Development Report), kita telah menorehkan kemajuan yang luar biasa dalam pengentasan kemiskinan dan peningkatan kesehatan, pendidikan, dan kondisi kehidupan ratusan juta penduduk dunia.	马德里—自1990年第一份人类发展报告发行以来的四分之一个世纪里，世界在减少贫困和改善数亿人的健康、教育和生活条件方面取得了巨大的进步。


Meskipun demikian, sejumlah pencapaian yang membanggakan ini belum merata penyebarannya.	但是，尽管这些成就令人印象深刻，但分布却不是平均的。


Baik itu antar negara maupun di dalam negeri, masih terlihat tingginya ketimpangan dalam hal pembangunan manusia.	国家之间和国家内部都仍然存在严重的人类发展差异。


Contohnya kematian bayi.	以婴儿死亡率为例。


Di Islandia, dari setiap 1.000 anak yang dilahirkan, dua anak meninggal dunia sebelum menginjak usia 1 tahun.	在冰岛，每1,000名新生儿中有两人活不到一岁。


Di Mozambik, angka kematian bayi adalah 120 per 1.000 kelahiran hidup.	在莫桑比克，这一比例为每1,000新生儿120人。


Demikian pula di Bolivia, bayi yang lahir dari ibu yang tidak berpendidikan memiliki kemungkinan dua kali lebih besar akan meninggal di bawah usia 1 tahun dibandingkan bayi yang dilahirkan seorang ibu yang setidaknya menyelesaikan pendidikan sekunder.	类似地，在玻利维亚，未受过教育的女性所生的婴儿一年内夭折的可能性比至少接受过初中教育的母亲所生的婴儿高一倍。


Seorang anak berusia lima tahun yang dilahirkan ke dalam keluarga berpendapatan rendah di Amerika Tengah, rata-rata memiliki tinggi badan yang 6 cm lebih pendek dibandingkan anak di keluarga berpendapatan tinggi.	而这些差异将伴随一生。 中非低收入家庭的五岁儿童平均升高比高收入家庭矮六公分。


Perbedaan tersebut terjadi karena berbagai alasan.	这些差异的原因各种各样。


Diantaranya adalah “vertical inequalities” seperti ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan, serta “horizontal inequalities” seperti perbedaan yang ditemukan dalam kelompok karena faktor-faktor seperti ras, jenis kelamin, dan etnis, selain itu juga perbedaan yang terbentuk antar komunitas karena pemisahan wilayah pemukiman.	其中有“纵向不平等”，如倾斜的收入分布； 也有“横向不平等”，与因为种族、性别、民族等因素而导致的群体内部的不平等以及因为居住隔离而产生的社区间的不平等。


Banyak orang mengalami berbagai jenis diskriminasi di saat yang sama dan kadang pengucilan yang mereka derita adalah akibat dari interaksi.	许多人同时面临着不同形式的歧视，而他们所遭遇的排斥程度是这些歧视互动情况的结果。


Gabungan antara kesenjangan/ketidaksetaraan yang bersifat vertikal dan horizontal ini bisa menyebabkan memperpanjang kemiskinan dan ketimpangan inter-generasi.	纵向和横向不平等相结合，可能导致极端的排斥和边缘化，这反过来让代际贫困和不平等永久化。


Kita patut bersyukur, kesadaran atas dampak buruk dari ketimpangan terhadap demokrasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, perdamaian, keadilan, dan pembangunan manusia kini semakin meningkat.	幸运的是，世界日益认识到不平等对民主、经济增长、和平、正义和人类发展的破坏作用。


Semakin jelas juga bahwa ketimpangan mengikis kohesi sosial dan menaikkan risiko kekerasan dan ketidakstabilan.	同样明确的是不平等侵蚀社会凝聚，增加暴力和动荡风险。


Pada akhirnya, kebijakan-kebijakan ekonomi dan sosial menjadi ibarat dua sisi mata koin, saling berkaitan walaupun tidak sama persis.	说到底，经济和社会政策是同一枚硬币的两面。


Selain alasan moral untuk menurunkan ketimpangan, disini terdapat alasan ekonomi.	降低不平等除了有道德上的理由，也有经济上的理由。


Jika ketimpangan terus meningkat, perlu adanya pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi untuk memberantas kemiskinan ekstrem dibandingkan dengan kondisi apabila manfaat ekonomi tersebar dengan lebih merata.	如果不平等程度持续上升，就需要比经济收益分配更加平均的情况更高的增长率来消灭极端贫困。


Tingginya ketimpangan juga berkorelasi dengan kemungkinan adanya political capture oleh sekelompok elit yang ingin membela kepentingannya dengan menghambat reformasi egaliter.	严重不平等也与精英把持政治的可能性相关。 精英阻挠平等化改革，以此捍卫自己的利益。


Permasalahannya, tidak hanya ketimpangan akan melemahkan uyaya perwujudan tujuan bersama dan ketersediaan common good, tapi juga bisa menciptakan hambatan struktural pada pembangunan, contohnya dengan pajak regresif dan penurunan investasi untuk pendidikan, kesehatan, atau infrastruktur.	不平等的问题不仅在于它妨碍人们追求集体目标和共同利益； 也在于它为发展制造结构性障碍，比如通过不合理或累退的税收以及教育、卫生或基础设施方面的投资不足。


Pertumbuhan saja tidak akan menjamin terciptanya akses yang sama pada barang publik dan jasa berkualitas, tetap dibutuhkan kebijakan yang terencana.	光靠增长无法保证人人都能平等获得公共品和高质量服务； 还需要有意为之的政策。


Sejarah terkini di Amerika Latin, kawasan di dunia dengan ketimpangan tertinggi, memberikan contoh baik tentang hal-hal yang dimungkinkan ketika kebijakan semacam itu diterapkan.	世界不平等性最高的地区拉丁美洲的最近历史提供了一个很好的例子，说明了当这些政策得到实施时可能发生什么。


Kawasan ini berhasil memperbaiki inklusi sosial dalam dekade pertama di abad ini melalui gabungan antara dinamisme ekonomi dan komitmen politik yang konstan untuk melawan kemiskinan dan ketimpangan sebagai kedua permasalahan yang saling bergantung (interdependent).	本世纪的第一个十年中，该地区在社会包容方面取得了重大进步，方法就是经济活力和持续政治承诺相结合，打击相互依存的贫困和不平等性问题。


Berkat upaya ini, Amerika Latin adalah satu-satunya kawasan di dunia yang berhasil menurunkan kemiskinan dan ketimpangan, sembari meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi.	由于这些努力，拉丁美洲成为世界上唯一一个成功减少贫困和不平等性，同时还能保持经济增长的地区。


Lebih dari 80 juta penduduk beralih ke kelas menengah, untuk pertama kalinya melampaui jumlah penduduk miskin dan menjadi segmen populasi yang terbesar di kawasan tersebut.	8,000万多人加入了中产阶级，使中产阶级历史上第一次超过穷人，成为该地区人口的最大细分群体。


Banyak yang berpendapat bahwa ini dimungkinan oleh kondisi-kondisi eksternal yang menguntungkan, termasuk tingginya harga komoditas sehingga memudahkan ekspansi ekonomi.	诚然，一些人认为有利的外部条件，包括支持经济扩张的高企的大宗商品价格，让这一进步成为可能。


Tetapi, bukti dari LAC Equity Lab milik Bank Dunia menegaskan bahwa pertumbuhan hanya berkontribusi sebagian terhadap perbaikan sosial (social gain) yang terjadi di Amerika Latin, selebihnya karena distribusi ulang pengeluaran sosial (social spending).	但是，世界银行LAC平等性实验室的证据确认，增长只能解释拉丁美洲社会进步的一部分； 其余要归因于通过社会支出实现的再分配。


Memang benar, kebijakan-kebijakan progresif adalah inti dari ekspansi ekonomi itu; adanya generasi baru pekerja berpendidikan tinggi yang memasuki pasar tenaga kerja, mendapat gaji yang lebih besar dan mengambil dividen dari pengeluaran sosial.	事实上，进步政策是经济扩张本身的核心； 新一代教育程度更高的工人加入劳动力大军，赚取更高的薪水并收获社会支出成果。


Kenaikan upah terbesar terjadi pada kelompok berpendapatan terendah.	工资增长最多的正是收入最低的群体。


Kini Amerika Latin telah memasuki periode pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih lambat, prestasi mereka sedang diuji.	如今，拉丁美洲进入了经济增长放缓期，这些成就正在经受考验。


Pemerintah memiliki ruang fiskal yang lebih sedikit dan sektor swasta kurang mampu menciptakan lapangan kerja.	政府财政空间缩水，私人部门也不再能够创造就业岗位。


Upaya untuk menurunkan kemiskinan dan ketimpangan berisiko akan tertunda atau bahkan terhenti.	减少贫困和不平等性的措施有可能陷入停滞——甚至有可能让来之不易的进步流失。


Para pembuat kebijakan di kawasan ini harus bekerja keras untuk mempertahankan kemajuan dalam pembangunan manusia jangka panjang.	该地区决策者需要致力于保持长期人类发展进步。


Pentingnya menurunkan ketimpangan telah diabadikan dalam prinsip-prinsip Revolusi Perancis, kata-kata di dalam Deklarasi Kemerdekaan Amerika Serikat, dan target-target yang ditetapkan pada Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan PBB.	解决不平等问题的重要性是法国大革命和美国独立宣言的理想，也是联合国可持续发展目标之一。


Upaya ini merupakan landasan membentuk dunia yang tidak hanya berkeadilan, tapi juga damai, sejahtera, dan berkelanjutan.	解决不平等问题的措施是铸造不仅公平，而且和平、繁荣和可持续的世界的关键。


Jika Deklarasi Universal Hak Asasi Manusia menyatakan “semua orang dilahirkan merdeka (bebas) dan memiliki hak yang sama”, bukankah kita semua layak senantiasa menjalani kehidupan seperti itu?	如果如世界人权宣言所言，“人人生而拥有自由和平等尊严和权利，”难道我们不应该能够继续以这种方式生活？


Human Evolution: No Easy Fix	人类进化：生存不易


MADISON –Humans are undeniably complex, and proud of it.	麦迪逊——毫无疑问，人类是复杂的，你我也为之自豪。


No case, we believe, needs to be made for our biological superiority.	我们相信，我们在生物学上高出其他物种一等。


Our biological functions are exquisitely regulated and resilient to external variations, owing to complicated webs of interactions.	我们的生物功能被精巧地控制着，并能能够适应外部变化，这是因为我们有着复杂的互动网络。


Unlike other species, we seem to be endowed with willpower and intellect, hence we are capable of modifying the environment to buffer the effects of our decreasing fitness.	与其他物种不同，我们天生具有毅力和智力，因此我们能够改变环境，以此缓冲健康恶化带来的影响。


Be that as it may, we may be doomed as a species precisely because of the way in which our complexity arose.	但是，或许正因为我们的复杂性的产生方式，我们注定要成为人类这个物种。


Paraphrasing the science writer Philip Ball, nature seems to have activated a time bomb, and our complexity is only a short-term fix.	套用科普作家鲍尔（Phillip Ball）的说法，大自然激活了一颗定时炸弹，而我们的复杂性只能短暂地延缓让计时器停摆。


To grasp the nature of the problem, we need to examine how humans are made at the molecular level, and contrast our constitution with that of other species that we often call “rudimentary,” such as unicellular organisms.	为了抓住这一问题的本质，我们需要在分子水平上考察一下人类的构成，把我们与那些我们称之为“原始”的物种（比如单细胞生物）做个比较。


This analysis leads us to examine proteins – our cellular building blocks and the executors of biologicalfunctions – across vastly different species.	该分析让我们考察大量不同物种体内的蛋白质，即组成我们的分子基石和生物功能的执行者。


Proteins with common ancestry belonging to different species, termed “orthologs,” offer solid ground for comparison.	拥有同一祖先的不同物种的蛋白质，即所谓的“同源体”，为我们提供了很好的比较基准。


It has been generally recognized that the basic “fold,” or shape, of a protein must be conserved across species, because there is a tight correspondence between structure and function.	一般认为，蛋白质的基本“折叠”（即形状）应该不随物种的改变而改变，因为蛋白质的结构与功能紧密相关。


Proteins that retain the same function across very different species – generally the case with orthologs – are expected to keep the same fold.	不同物种间功能相同的蛋白质——大致上与同源体相同——被认为具有相同的折叠。


But the sequence of amino acids that make up the protein chains in these orthologs can vary significantly.	但组成这些同源体的蛋白质链的氨基酸序列可以大相径庭。


Sometimes the extent of sequence identity between two orthologs can be as low as 25-30%, and yet their folds remain strikingly similar, attesting to the robustness of function to evolutionary change.	有时，两种同源体的序列一致性程度可以低至只有25—30%，与此同时，它们的折叠却仍保持着极大的相似性，这证明蛋白质功能对进化是鲁棒的。


This conservation of the protein fold across species makes the origin of our complexity even more puzzling, as it is well known that the number of human genes is deceptively small, merely one order of magnitude larger than that of, say, rice.	物种之间蛋白质折叠的不变性让人类复杂性的起源变得更加扑朔迷离了，众所周知，人类基因数量少得令人难以置信，只比水稻这样的物种多出一个数量级。


If the structure of the proteins is conserved across species, where is our complexity coming from?	如果蛋白质结构具有物种之间的不变性，那么我们的复杂性又源自何处？


Better still, in what sense are we more complex?	更大的问题是，我们的复杂性体现在什么地方？


Researchers have recently discovered subtle structural variations occurring in orthologs from species that diverged from each other billions of years ago.	研究者最近发现了在几十亿年的漫长进化中变得逐渐不同的物种体内的同源体所发生的微小的结构变化。


In these structures, something subtler than overall topology changes across orthologs.	在这些结构中，比整体拓扑更细微的东西在同源体之间发生了变化。


The structure in some seems “looser” than in others – less well packed, with surface regions that enable surrounding water to penetrate and disrupt the structure by interacting favorably with the protein backbone.	一些同源体的结构比另一些更“松”（即包装更简单）它们表面区域能被水侵蚀，水可以轻易地与蛋白质主干链产生互动，从而破坏其结构。


These structural vulnerabilities are known as dehydrons.	这些结构脆弱性被称为去水性（dehydron）。


As we examine orthologs, the proteins become more degraded, or richer in dehydrons, in species with a lower effective population – a somewhat elusive indicator inversely related to the size and complexity of the organism and to the complexity of its reproductive pattern.	当我们考察同源体时，我们发现，有效群体规模更小的物种，其蛋白质出现了更多的退化，或者说去水性更丰富——生物规模和复杂性与其生殖方式的复杂性之间存在一种模糊的逆相关关系。


Thus, humans (or mammals) have significantly smaller (ten or more orders of magnitude) populations than bacteria.	因此，人类（或哺乳类）数量要比菌类少得多（相差10个以上的数量级）。


The observation that structural degradation is a reflection of decreasing species population resonates in the field of evolution, because natural selection becomes more inefficient as the population gets smaller.	结构退化这一观察结果是对物种规模在进化过程中不断减小的反映，因为随着物种规模变得更小，自然选择就会变得更无效。


Structural degradation is thus an indicator of the species’ exposure to random genetic drift: mildly deleterious mutations that would typically degrade the protein structure are more likely to be selected against in bacteria before they can become fixed in the entire population (estimated in trillions of individuals), whereas such a mutation has a far better chance of prevailing in humans.	因此，结构退化就成了物种对随机基因漂移风险敞口大小的指标：在通常情况下会造成蛋白质结构退化的微害突变不太可能在细菌中发生，因为这类突变可以在整个物种（大概有几万亿个体）的层面上得到修复，而类似的突变在人类中蔓延开来的概率就大得多了。


A protein that is richer in dehydrons than its ortholog is more vulnerable to becoming disrupted by surrounding water.	与其同源体相比去水性更强的但被指更容易被周围的水所分解。


Precisely for this reason, it becomes more “needy” – that is, more reliant on binding partners to maintain its structural integrity.	正是因为这个原因，这类蛋白质更加“艰难”，也就是说，更依赖其与其绑定的伙伴来维持结构的完整性。


Furthermore, dehydrons are known to be sticky, so structurally degraded proteins are more likely to promote protein-protein associations than orthologs with lower dehydron content.	此外，我们知道去水性具有粘性，因此结构上发生了退化的蛋白质要比去水性不那么强的同源体更可能提高蛋白质-蛋白质联系。


Thus, protein-protein interactions, a hallmark of complexity, are actually promoted by randomdrift, the evolutionary force behind the protein degradation process.	因此，蛋白质-蛋白质互动——复杂性的标志——实际上是由随机漂移——即蛋白质退化过程背后的进化力量——驱动的。


So, it seems, complexity is not really naturally selected, but instead arises as a short-term fix to the effects of selection inefficiency.	因此，复杂性似乎并不是真正的自然选择，而是一种对选择无效性的短期修复。


At first reading, this assertion seems counterintuitive, but the root of the paradox is simply our dogmatic way of thinking, where complex traits are expected to be an outcome of natural selection.	乍看上去，这一观点似乎是反直觉的，但这一悖论的根源在于我们教条主义的思维方式，我们先入为主地认定复杂性应该是自然选择的结果。


And where is nature’s gambit taking us?	那么，自然的开端是怎样造就了我们呢？


The proteins with the largest accumulation of structural defects are the prions, soluble proteins so poorly wrapped that they relinquish their functionally competent fold and form aberrant aggregates that may cause degenerative neuropathies.	结构性缺陷最多的蛋白质是朊病毒，这是一种可溶性蛋白质，遇水就会功能性折叠，形成一种畸变组合体，这种组合体可以引发退行性神经病变。


This extreme case of an “aberrantly needy protein” illustrates the high level of genetic risk to which we are exposed as a result of our small population.	这一“异常软弱的蛋白质”的极端例子说明，由于物种规模太小，我们暴露于极高的基因风险之中。


The prion is a “fitness” catastrophe that gives us clues as to where nature’s gambit might lead humanity.	朊病毒是“健康”大灾难，它给了我们一个关于自然开端是如何形成人类的线索。


Perhaps the long-term evolutionary cost of our complexity is too high, with our survival as a species ultimately depending on our ability to mitigate its fitness cost through increasingly arduous therapeutic solutions.	也许我们的复杂性的长期进化代价太大了，我们作为一个物种能够生存下来，最终取决于我们通过越来越复杂的治疗方案降低健康成本的能力。


Let’s hope we pass the test.	但愿我们能够经受考验。


Something to Smile About	值得高兴的事


LONDON – As I put pen to paper, my wife threw out a seasonal challenge: “Christmas is approaching – the time for peace and joy and all that.	伦敦——我提笔写这篇文章时，我妻子抛出了一个应景的难题：“圣诞节就要到了，人们应该享受和平快乐。


Can’t you write about something that will make people happy?”	你就不能写点让人高兴的话题？ ”


What sounds like a light-hearted request is actually a formidable task.	这个要求看似轻松实则艰巨。


Ebola is decimating lives and livelihoods in West Africa.	埃博拉病毒正在西非毁灭生活、吞噬生命。


A legion of Islamist thugs is terrorizing Syria and Iraq.	叙利亚和伊拉克正遭受伊斯兰暴徒的威胁。


Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces have invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine.	俄国总统普京派部队入侵克里米亚和东乌克兰。


Add to that a faltering global economy, and there seems to be little “holiday cheer” on offer.	此外还有摇摇欲坠的全球经济。 这种情况下似乎很难找到“节日的快乐”。


But happiness is a complex phenomenon.	但快乐是个复杂的问题。


People living poorly may feel happier more often than their more “fortunate” counterparts.	穷人可能比“幸运”的有钱人更能感受到幸福。


It is this kind of contradiction that has fueled research in the social sciences and neurology devoted to answering the age-old question: What is the secret to happiness?	正是这样的矛盾让社会学和神经学研究致力于回答这个古老的问题——“什么才是快乐的秘诀？ ”。


Of course, the tools that scientists are using – from advanced imaging to examine the brain’s pleasure centers to microeconomic happiness equations – are not proven in this area.	当然，科学家在上述领域所用的研究工具——包括研究大脑愉悦中心的高科技成像到微观经济学的幸福方程式——都还没有得到过证实。


Can an algorithm, however well researched and carefully crafted, ever really capture the relationship between happiness and factors like income, health, lifespan, and education?	无论研究体系多么精密，某种算法是否真能捕捉到幸福和收入、健康、寿命和教育等因素之间的关系？


In any case, it is clear that happiness is not dictated by one’s job title or bank balance.	无论如何，快乐显然不取决于人的职位和银行存款余额。


The British comedian Spike Milligan may have wanted the chance to prove that money couldn’t buy him happiness.	英国喜剧演员斯派克·米利根或许希望有机会证明金钱无法带给他幸福。


But he undoubtedly would have conceded that other factors – like good health and close friends – did much to improve his state of mind.	但他无疑愿意承认健康的体魄和亲密的朋友等其他因素让他的心境改善了很多。


Even seemingly mundane activities can – and should – bring considerable happiness, as they can represent significant progress.	因为取得了显著进步，就连看似平淡无奇的活动也可以——而且应该带来很多幸福。


My visit to the dentist last week, for example, was far superior to my childhood visits.	比方说我上周去看牙医就比童年时的经历好了许多。


As a child, the mere sight of the dentist chair would cause me to break out in a cold sweat, as I anticipated my forthcoming encounter with the battery of gleaming instruments seemingly designed for the principal purpose of causing excruciating pain.	童年时只要想到即将与闪闪发光的牙医工具亲密接触甚至仅仅看到牙医治疗椅都会让我冷汗直流。 这些工具的主要目的似乎就是带来难以忍受的疼痛。


My most recent experience, by contrast, was uncomplicated, even comfortable.	相比之下，这一次的经历非常简单，甚至可以用舒适来形容。


And I was not a child that long ago.	我的年龄还不算太老。


Imagine a child’s experience a century ago or earlier.	想想一百年前或者更早期的儿童。


Some 5,000 years ago, the Chinese used acupuncture, not dental care, to treat toothaches.	5，000年前中国人还没有牙齿保健，他们用针灸来治疗牙疼。


Aristotle was preoccupied with dental issues, writing about treatments of decayed teeth and gum disease, extractions conducted with forceps, and the use of wire to stabilize fractured jaws.	亚里士多德饱受牙病之苦，他曾记录过治疗蛀牙和牙龈疾病、用钳子拔牙和用金属线来固定颌骨骨折。


The classical Sanskrit writer Vagbhata described 75 oral diseases.	古典梵文作家Vagbhata 记载了75种口腔疾病。


And Shakespeare noted that tooth decay was a cause of awful pain and unpleasant odor.	而莎士比亚曾说蛀牙会带来难闻的气味和钻心的疼痛。


The pain affected rich and poor alike.	这样的疼痛同样影响着富人和穷人。


Queen Elizabeth I of England used bits of cloth to plug the gaps in her teeth, in order to improve her appearance.	英国女王伊丽莎白一世用碎布堵住牙齿间的缝隙以保持面容姣好。


Louis XIV of France had all of his upper teeth removed after a dentist fractured his jaw trying to extract a lower molar.	法国国王路易十四在牙医拔下臼齿导致其下巴骨折后将上牙全部拔除。


So many people lost their teeth that dead people’s teeth were recycled.	拔牙的人太多以致死人的牙齿都被回收利用。


The teeth of the 50,000 soldiers killed at Waterloo in 1815 were extracted and used until the 1860s as replacements for the toothless.	1815年50,000名滑铁卢战死士兵的牙齿被拔下，直到19世纪60年代还用来治疗牙齿脱落的患者。


Even in my own lifetime, tooth loss was commonplace.	就连我自己的时代，牙齿脱落也是司空见惯的。


My grandmother lost all of her teeth during her life, and my parents lost many of theirs.	我祖母所有的牙齿全部掉光，我父母也掉了绝大多数。


They used to pop their dentures into a mug of whitener every night.	他们每晚把假牙泡在装有增白剂的杯中。


Of course, dental maladies have not been eliminated.	当然，牙齿问题并没有完全消除。


Today, 30% of those aged 65-75 worldwide are toothless, with poor and disadvantaged groups recording the highest rates.	今天，全世界65-75岁的老人中有30%没有牙齿，穷人和弱势群体牙齿脱落的比例更高。


But the overall rate is falling.	但整体比例正在稳步下降。


My friend’s young daughter, who recently asked if she would ever have “in and out” teeth like her grandparents, can be relatively confident that she will not.	我朋友的小女儿最近曾问有一天她会不会也像爷爷奶奶那样有“可以拿下来”的牙齿，我可以相对肯定的告诉她不会的。


Even if she did, however, she would not face the barriers that people with poor dental health confronted in the past.	即使她也要用到假牙，但像过去牙齿很差的人所面临的难题她不太可能遇到。


Potential army recruits were turned away if they had tooth decay or missing teeth, because they would be unable to bite open a powder cartridge for a musket or use their teeth to remove a grenade’s safety clip; they would also struggle to eat properly.	有蛀牙或少牙的年轻人不能参军，因为他们可能无法用牙咬开步枪火药盒或手榴弹安全夹； 他们连吃饭也有困难。


During the Boer War, the British had to send mincing machines to South Africa, so that soldiers were not forced to choke down unmasticated lumps of meat.	布尔战争期间，英军不得不把绞肉机运到南非，以免士兵被迫将未经咀嚼的肉块囫囵咽下。


It seems that the American writer and journalist P.J. O’Rourke had a point when he argued that the best thing about living in the twenty-first century, versus some “golden age” of the past, is modern dentistry.	美国作家兼记者P·J·奥罗克的说法似乎很有道理，他认为生活在21世纪较之过去所谓”黄金时代”最大的优势之一就是我们有现代牙医学。


Why not take teeth – their relative cleanliness and health – as a mark of economic progress and human happiness?	为什么不把牙齿相对的洁净和健康作为经济进步和人类幸福的标志？


It is, of course, unlikely that dental health will ever secure a place on the United Nations development agenda.	当然，牙齿健康也许永远不会被纳入联合国发展计划。


But it does offer a straightforward indicator of relative wellbeing.	但它的确提供了相对健康的直接指标。


And given how painful a dental condition can be, dentistry deserves a place of honor on next spring’s UN-sponsored International Day of Happiness.	鉴于牙齿问题是多么痛苦，明年春联合国发起的国际幸福日应该庆祝牙医学取得的成就。


Whatever political horrors may be afflicting the world, there is something for many of us to smile about: a clean, healthy, and pain-free set of pearly whites.	无论世界面临什么样的政治恐怖，我们都有理由露出一口洁净、健康、珍珠般洁白的牙齿尽情微笑。


In fact, delegating sensitive tasks to such “stupid” agents is one of the future risks.	事实上，将敏感任��托付给如此“愚蠢”的物体是未来的一个风险。


Humanity’s Stake in Gaza	加沙地带的人性赌注


Amman – Wasted time is always to be regretted.	安曼—人们总会为被浪费的时间感到遗憾。


But in the Middle East, wasting time is also dangerous.	但在中东，浪费时间也是危险的。


Another year has now passed with little progress in bridging the divide between Palestinians and Israelis.	又一年过去了，但在弥合巴以冲突双方的裂痕方面却依然没有多少进展。


The current air strikes on Gaza, and continuing rocket attacks on Askelon, Sderot and other towns in southern Israel, only prove how dire the situation is becoming.	目前发生在加沙的空袭以及针对阿斯科伦，斯德诺特等以色列南部城镇的持续火箭炮袭击只能证明局势正在变得有多么悲惨可怕。


The security impasse that exists between Israel and the Gazan-Palestinian leadership has also led to blockades of food aid by Israel that have left Gaza’s 1.5 million people facing conditions of real hunger.	以色列和加沙—巴勒斯坦领袖之间的安全僵局也已经导致以色列封锁自己提供的食品援助，从而使得150万加沙人已经面临真正的饥饿局面。


Israel, it seems, is once again emphasizing the primacy of “hard” security in its dealings with the Palestinians of Gaza, but this focus only serves to block non-violent opportunities for creative solutions to the Israel-Palestine dispute.	看上去，以色列正在再次强调它在应对加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人时，“不妥协的”安全才是在排在第一位的。 然而，这种集中关注只会阻碍产生创造性地非暴力解决巴以争端的机会。