What will not work, at least for most eurozone countries, is internal devaluation – that is, forcing down wages and prices – as this would increase the debt burden for households, firms, and governments (which overwhelmingly hold euro-denominated debts).	至少对大部分欧元区国家来说不会起作用的是内部贬值——也就是压低工资和物价——因为这会增加家庭、公司和政府（它们持有绝大部分以欧元计价的债务）的债务负担。


And, with adjustments in different sectors occurring at different speeds, deflation would fuel massive distortions in the economy.	由于不同领域以不同的速度进行调整，通货紧缩会加剧经济体内部的大规模扭曲失衡。


If internal devaluation were the solution, the gold standard would not have been a problem in the Great Depression.	如果内部贬值是解决问题的办法，大萧条时的金本位就不会成为一个问题。


Internal devaluation, combined with austerity and the single-market principle (which facilitates capital flight and the hemorrhaging of banking systems) is a toxic combination.	内部贬值与紧缩政策、单一市场原则（它促进了资本外流和银行系统大出血）一起构成了一个有害的组合。


The European project was, and is, a great political idea.	欧洲一体化曾经是，如今也是一个伟大的政治理念。


It has the potential to promote both prosperity and peace.	它有促进繁荣与和平的潜能。


But, rather than enhancing solidarity within Europe, it is sowing seeds of discord within and between countries.	但它并没有提高欧洲内部的团结，却播下了国家内部以及国家之间不和的种子。


Europe’s leaders repeatedly vow to do everything necessary to save the euro.	欧洲领导人再三发誓要尽一切努力来挽救欧元。


European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s promise to do “whatever it takes” has succeeded in providing a temporary calm.	欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）“不计一切代价”去努力的承诺成功让欧洲获得了暂时的平静。


But Germany has consistently rejected every policy that would provide a long-term solution.	但德国一直拒绝任何可以提供长期解决方案的政策。


The Germans, it seems, will do everything except what is needed.	德国人似乎就是不做那些经济需要的措施。


Of course, the Germans have reluctantly come to accept the necessity of a banking union that includes common deposit insurance.	当然，德国人不情愿地承认了建立一个拥有共同存款保险的银行联盟的必要性。


But the pace with which they accede to such reforms is out of kilter with the markets.	但他们认同这个改革的缓慢步伐对市场是不利的。


Banking systems in several countries are already on life support.	好几个国家的银行系统已经岌岌可危了。


How many more will be in intensive care before a banking union becomes a reality?	在银行联盟变成现实之前还有多少国家的银行系统需要急救才能生存下去？


Yes, Europe needs structural reform, as austerity advocates insist.	是的，欧洲需要结构性改革，一如紧缩主张坚持的那样。


But it is structural reform of the eurozone’s institutional arrangements, not reforms within individual countries, that will have the greatest impact.	但只有欧元区制度安排的结构改革而不是个体国家内部的结构改革才会产生最大的影响。


Unless Europe is willing to make those reforms, it may have to let the euro die to save itself.	除非欧洲愿意进行这样的改革，否则它也许只能让欧元消失才能拯救自己了。


The EU’s Economic and Monetary Union was a means to an end, not an end in itself.	欧盟的经济与货币联盟只是一个达到目的的手段，并不是最终目的。


The European electorate seems to have recognized that, under current arrangements, the euro is undermining the very purposes for which it was supposedly created.	欧洲的选民似乎已经开始意识到，在目前的政策安排下，欧元毁灭的正是从前希望通过创立这一货币来实现的愿景。


That is the simple truth that Europe’s leaders have yet to grasp.	而这也是欧洲领导人还未理解到的简单事实。


Listen to Me!	听我说!


SAN FRANCISCO – Last week, I wrote a 140-character hotel review on Twitter: “Galleria Park Hotel SF rejects noise complaint from ill-trained guest: ‘Next time, ask for an interior room, not just a quiet room.’”	发自旧金山 —— 上星期，我在自己的 Twitter 上发了条 140 字的酒店评论：旧金山广场公园酒店一口回绝了冒失住客的噪音投诉：“下次直接说要靠里面的房间 , 别只说要安静的房子。 ”


I was frustrated because the hotel management was not listening to me when I asked for a quiet room – or later, when I complained.	而我之所以如此不满，原因就是当我要求安排一间安静房间的时候，该酒店的管理人员把这句话当成了耳边风 —— 即便是在我后来投诉了，他们也还是左耳进右耳出。


Instead of training their employees to listen, they were telling me that I hadn’t made the right request.	他们不但没有训练自己的员工学会倾听，反倒说我提出的要求不合理。


And the hotel managers probably were not listening to me later via Twitter, either.	而估计这间酒店的经理们后来也没把我在 Twitter 上说的话当回事。


Of course, it used to be difficult to listen to customers; as a company, you could not station people everywhere to pick up random comments, and few customers cared enough to write actual letters – positive or negative.	没错，倾听顾客的反馈曾经是件挺困难的差事； 一间公司不可能在每一角落都放几个人来收集顾客们随口说出的评论，而且很少顾客会有心思专门给你写封信 —— 无论是褒是贬。


Service companies such as airlines could ask employees to collect feedback, but it was overly complicated.	像航空公司这样的服务型企业会要求员工收集反馈，但这样的工作也是极度复杂。


Nowadays, however, customers are commenting everywhere, and all a company has to do is listen – electronically and humanly.	但在今天这个社会，顾客的评论充斥着所有的信息渠道，企业只需要去倾听就是了 —— 不管是电信搜索还是人工采集。


Nonetheless, most companies still think of all the new technologies that I write about primarily as message-sending devices – ways to promote their brand, create an image, and sell their product.	但尽管话是这么说，大部分公司依然只把我所提到的新技术主要看成是一种信息传递工具 —— 某条用来推广品牌，建立企业形象以及销售产品的路子。


Companies spend a lot of time watching customers, trying to figure them out, but so little time listening to them.	许多公司花费了大量的时间去监测顾客，尝试去识别他们，但花在顾客倾听方面的时间却少得可怜。


Indeed, there are lots of depressing statistics about how poorly companies listen.	事实上，关于公司在倾听客户上表现如何差劲的统计数据可谓汗牛充栋。


They don’t respond effectively to feedback or to questions submitted through their Web sites.	这些公司无论对反馈或是通过其公司网站提交上来的询问都没能做出有效的反应。


Many simply don’t reply at all. Others send bland emails – “Thank you for writing to us” – without responding to the particular question or comment.	很多公司干脆就不予回复，而其他一些则敷衍了事 —— 一面宣称“感谢您的来信” —— 一面却对具体的问题和意见拿不出个明确答复来。


And then they spend thousands or even millions of dollars trying to figure out what these same customers really want.	但讽刺的是，他们却不惜一掷千金，尝试去识别同样的一批客户究竟想要些什么。


What all companies really need to do to improve their performance is to get better at listening to the conversations that are already out there on the Internet.	而所有想要增加绩效的公司所真正需要做的，就是提高自己倾听那些早已经发布在网络上面的声音的能力。


They can listen for many purposes – from figuring out what products or services to offer and understanding which customer wants what, to repairing the damage done when something goes wrong.	他们倾听的目的可以是多种多样的 —— 从识别该提供什么产品或服务，了解何种客户需要什么东西，到弥补一些错误所导致的损失都可以。


There are two modes of listening.	这里有两种倾听的模式。


There’s the listening you do to learn, which ideally can be somewhat automated.	一种是为了解而倾听，而这种行为理论上在可以是自动的。


You can use sentiment-sensing tools – everything from tools that measure the prevalence of negative or positive words about your offering on Twitter and Facebook, to customer surveys that produce precise, structured data.	你可以借助一些观点监测工具 —— 比如某些工具可以测量对你的产品或服务的负面 / 正面评价在 Twitter 和 Facebook 上的流行程度，或者一些能够生成精确结构性数据的客户调查。


You can find out, for example, that last month 56% of your users would recommend your product to a friend, versus 79% the same time last year.	例如，你发现上个月贵公司的顾客中有 56 ％向他们的朋友推荐了你的产品，而去年同期这个比例为 79 ％。


Oops!	晕！


Better do some more listening!	这下你需要更多的倾听了！


Then there are the more subtle signals to listen to statistically – whether they are feedback direct to your Web site, emails, press mentions, or Twitter and Facebook feeds.	另一种则是以统计的思维去倾听那些更为微弱的信号 —— 不管是来自你的网站，邮箱，媒体评论，还是 Twitter 和 Facebook 上的反馈。


What features – positive or negative – are mentioned most often?	什么特征（正面的或负面的）经常被提到？


Which competitors are highlighted?	哪些竞争对手比较突出？


What other companies or products are most often discussed along with yours?	哪些公司或产品最常与你的相提并论？


Could they be possible marketing partners?	他们有可能成为你的营销伙伴吗？


All of that is important, but then there’s the listening you do so that your customers can feel listened to.	所有这些都很重要，但只有你的倾听才能使得你的顾客感到被关注。


That’s something a computer cannot do. It requires a person.	有些事情电脑是插不上手的，只能靠人本身。


You can reduce the burden to some extent by creating a community of your customers (and prospects) so that they can listen to one another.	而其中一个减轻工作量的方法，就是你可以为自己的客户（或潜在客户）创建一个社区圈子，这样他们就可以在里面相互倾听彼此的声音。


Take a site I just visited this morning, for Fitbit, a self-monitoring tool that lets you measure your physical motion, and by implication your exercise, calorie consumption, sleep time, and other factors.	以今晨我刚浏览过的一个网站为例，该网站销售一个叫 Fitbit 的自我监测小仪器，可以通过测量一个人的肌体活动状况，显示此人的锻炼情况，热量消耗，睡眠时间和其他一些身体特征。


If that’s unclear to you, just visit the site and ask questions; other users will answer most of them, and sometimes the staff (identified with a red badge under their names; occasionally it’s the CEO) will chime in with “official” information.	如果你对这个产品有不明白的地方，尽管访问这个网站并提出你的问题； 其他用户会对回答绝大部分问题，有时网站工作人员（他们的名字下面有个红色标识，偶尔会是他们的 CEO ）会发布一些“官方”信息说明一下。


Fitbit is not unique; it’s one of many start-ups that are using their own customers to help them achieve greater scale in listening.	Fitbit 并不是独一无二的，它只是许多运用自身客户来协助拓展倾听范围的新公司之一。


(Yes, the chatter was encouraging enough that I just ordered one!)	（没错，这种交谈的确很有说服力，连我也忍不住订了一个 Fitbit 。 ）


But most important is listening well enough to say, “We’re sorry” in a convincing way.   Not, “We’re sorry you didn’t appreciate our wonderful service,” but, “We’re sorry we screwed up and gave you a noisy room.”	但最最重要的，是要听明白究竟出了什么问题，并用一种真诚的态度说声“抱歉”。 不是“很抱歉您连我们这么出色的服务都看不上眼”的那种，而是“很抱歉我们照顾不周，给了您一间这么吵的房间”这种“抱歉”。


In other words, you need to reply with enough detail to show that you listened.	换句话说，你的回复必须非常准确详细，好让顾客知道你确实是在倾听。


Refunding a customer’s money – or giving them a free complementary breakfast – is easy.	把房钱退给客人 —— 或者给他们一份免费的早餐作补偿是件很容易的事。


But how can you make up for the headache they had all day from lack of sleep?	但对于他们因缺乏睡眠而导致的整天头痛，你又该如何弥补？


You can’t – but showing that you noticed their unhappiness with you counts for a lot.	事实上你根本无法弥补 —— 但你要表现出他们的不满意对你有多重要。


That’s the thinking behind one of my favorite customer-care proposals: that lost luggage should get its own air miles – thus making the customer feel that the airline acknowledges the error and is suffering along with the customer.	而这是我最满意的一份客户关怀提案背后的理念：就算一箱行李遗失了，也应该计算出这个箱子的飞行里程数 —— 这样才能使客户感觉航空公司确实认识到了错误，并跟他们一样着急。


In the end, listening carefully is the best way to show respect for anyone, customer or partner, friend or boss.	最后，认真倾听是对任何人，不论是客户，合作伙伴，朋友还是老板，表示尊敬的最好方法。


Even though companies do it for business purposes, they have to do it with human sincerity.	尽管公司是出于商业目的而倾听，但也要做得有诚意。


One of my favorite cartoons – from The New Yorker – shows a retail salesman standing next to a display case labeled “Communication technology.”   Inside the case?	我最喜欢的其中一幅漫画 —— 登在《纽约客》杂志上面的 —— 说的是一个零售员站在一个印有“交流技术”标签的展示箱旁边。 箱子里面是什么？


Human ears.	是人的耳朵。


Little Big Men	平民领袖


CAMBRIDGE – History is often written in terms of military heroes, but the enormous potential of human leadership ranges from Attila the Hun to Mother Teresa.	剑桥－历史通常是根据军事英雄写成的，但是众多可能的人类领袖包含了从匈奴可汗到特丽莎修女这样的人。


Most everyday leaders remain unheralded.	绝大多数平凡的领袖不为人所知。


The role of heroic leadership in war leads to overemphasis of command and control and hard military power.	战争中的英雄领导角色导致对命令和控制以及强势军事力量的过分强调。


In America today, the presidential debate is between Senator John McCain, a war hero, and Senator Barack Obama, a former community organizer.	在今天的美国，总统选举辩论是在曾是战争英雄的参议员约翰·麦凯恩和曾是社团组织者的参议员巴拉克·奥巴马之间进行。


The image of the warrior leader lingers in modern times.	在现代，战斗领袖的形象仍然得以保留。


The writer Robert Kaplan points to the birth of a new “warrior class as cruel as ever and better armed” ranging from Russian Mafiosi and Latin American drug kingpins to terrorists who glorify violence just as ancient Greeks did in the sacking of Troy.	作家罗伯特·卡普兰（Robert Kaplan）指出，出现了一个新的“和前人一样残酷而拥有更好的武器装备的战斗阶层”，这个阶层包括俄罗斯黑手党，拉丁美洲毒枭以及像古希腊人在特洛伊屠城中那样美化暴力的恐怖分子。


Kaplan argues that modern leaders must respond in kind, and that modern leadership will demand a pagan ethos rooted in the past.	卡普兰认为现代的领袖们必须用同样的方式对这些人进行回应，现代领导人要求具有源自过去的异教道德精神。


Smart warriors, however, know how to lead with more than just the use of force.	但是，聪明的战士知道怎样用仅仅使用武力之外的东西进行领导。


Soldiers sometimes joke that their job description is simple: “kill people and break things.”	士兵们有时候开玩笑说他们的工作描述很简单：“杀人和破坏东西”。


But, as the United States discovered in Iraq, hearts and minds also matter, and smart warriors need the soft power of attraction as well as the hard power of coercion.	但是，像美国在伊拉克发现的那样，感情和头脑也很重要，聪明的战士需要强迫的硬力量，也需要吸引人的软力量。


Indeed, an oversimplified image of warrior-style leadership in President George W. Bush’s first term caused costly setbacks for America’s role in the world.	事实上，在乔治·沃克·布什总统的第一届任期内对战士式的领导形象的过分简单化，导致了美国在世界地位上的重大挫折。


It is not a manly modern Achilles who makes the best warrior leader in today’s communication age. Military leadership today requires political and managerial skills.	在当今的信息时代，不是很男性化的现代阿基里斯才是最好的战斗领袖。


Many autocratic rulers – in Zimbabwe, Myanmar, Belarus, and elsewhere – still lead the old-fashioned way.	在津巴布韦、缅甸、白俄罗斯和许多其他地方的独裁统治者，仍然用老式的方法进行统治。


They combine fear with corruption to maintain kleptocracies dominated by “the big man” and his coterie.	他们把恐惧和腐败结合起来，来维持由“大人物”和他们的同伙进行的盗贼统治。


A good portion of the world is ruled this way.	在世界上，有许多地方用这种方式进行统治。


Some theorists try to explain this with an “alpha male theory of leadership.”	一些理论家试图用“头号雄性领导理论”来进行解释。


The psychiatrist Arnold M. Ludwig, for example, argues that just as male monkeys, chimps, or apes automatically begin to assume more responsibility for their particular community once they attain the dominant status of alpha male, human rulers do so as well.	例如，精神病学家阿诺德·M·路德维格（Arnold M. Ludwig）认为像雄性猴子、猩猩或者猿一旦取得头号雄性地位之后就会自动开始对其所在的团体承担更多的责任那样，人类中的统治者也是这样的。


But such socio-biological explanations of leadership are of only limited value.	但是，对领导人这样的社会生物学解释的价值是有限的。


Thus far, no leadership gene has been identified, and studies of identical and fraternal male twins find that only a third of their difference in occupying formal leadership roles can be explained by genetic factors.	迄今为止，还没有发现有领导人基因，对同卵和异卵男性双胞胎的研究发现，在履行正式的领导角色中，他们的差异中只有三分之一 可以用遗传因素进行解释。


While this suggests that inbred characteristics influence the extent to which people play particular roles, it leaves a lot of room for learned behavior to influence outcomes.	虽然这显示了天生的特征影响人们扮演某一角色的能力，但是也显示习得行为对结果有较大的影响。


Even so, one effect of the traditional heroic warrior approach to leadership has been to support the belief that leaders are born rather than made, and that nature is more important than nurture.	即使是这样，传统的认为领导人是英雄战士的观念的一个结果是，它支持了领导人是天生的而不是后天培养成的，并且天生的因素比后天的培养更重要的观点。


The search for the essential traits of a leader dominated the field of leadership studies until the late 1940’s, and remains common in popular discourse today.	在20世纪40年代之前，寻找领导人的特征在领导研究领域一直占主导地位，并且直到今天，在通俗演讲中仍然很常见。


A tall handsome person enters a room, draws attention, and “looks like a leader.”	一个高大英俊的人进入一个房间，引起人们的注意，并“看起来像个领导”。


Various studies show that tall men are often favored, and that corporate CEOs are taller than average.	各种研究显示，高大的男人更受欢迎，而且公司的CEO比一般人要高。


But some of the most powerful leaders in history, such as Napoleon, Stalin, and Deng Xiaoping were little over five feet tall.	但是，一些在历史上最有权势的领导人，例如拿破仑、斯大林和邓小平都只有5英尺多一点点高。


The traits-centered approach has not vanished from studies of leadership, but it has been broadened and made more flexible.	以特征为中心的研究方法在领导研究中还没有消失，但是它被进行了扩充并赋予更多的弹性。


Traits have come to be seen as consistent patterns of personality rather than inherited characteristics.	领导人的特征被认为是一致的性格模式，而不是遗传特性。


This definition mixes nature and nurture, and means that “traits” can to some extent be learned rather than merely inherited.	这个定义结合了天生的因素和后天的培养，并意味着“领导特征”在某种程度上可以通过学习得来，而不仅仅是靠遗传获得的。


We talk about leaders being more energetic, more risk-taking, more optimistic, more persuasive, and more empathetic than other people.	我们讨论领导人比其他人精力更充沛，更敢于冒险，更乐观，更善于说服人以及更能移情。


These traits, however, are affected partly by a leader’s genetic makeup and partly by the environments in which the traits were learned and developed.	但是，这些特征一部分受到领导人的基因组成的影响，一部分受到习得和发展这些特征的环境的影响。


A persuasive experiment recently demonstrated the interaction between nature and nurture.	最近的一个具有说服力的试验证明了天生的因素和后天的培养之间的互动。


A group of employers was asked to hire workers who had been ranked by their looks.	一群雇主被要求雇用被按照相貌排序的工人。


If the employers saw only the resumés, beauty had no impact on hiring.	如果雇主只看了简历，容貌对雇用没有任何影响。


Surprisingly, however, when telephone interviews were included in the process, beautiful people did better, even though they were unseen by the employers.	但是，令人惊奇的是，当在这个过程中包含了电话面试的时候，即使他们在没有被雇主看见的情况下，容���较好的人也表现更佳。


A lifetime of social reinforcement based on their genetically given looks may have encoded into their voice patterns a tone of confidence that could be projected over the phone.	基于遗传的良好相貌并在社会生活中加以强化，可能已经在他们的声音模式中植入一个 通过电话可以投射的自信的语调。


Nature and nurture became thoroughly intertwined.	在这种时候，天生的因素和后天的培养完全交织在一起。


Genetics and biology matter in human leadership, but they do not determine it in the way that the traditional heroic warrior approach to leadership suggests.	遗传学和生物学在人类的领导人中起作用，但是它们不是以传统的英雄战士的领导方法显示的方式来起决定作用。


The “big man” type of leader works in societies based on networks of tribal cultures that rely on personal and family honor and loyalty.	“大人物”式的领导人在建立在依靠个人和家族荣誉以及忠诚的种族文化网络上的社会中是起作用的。


But such social structures are not well adapted for coping with today’s complex information-based world.	但是这样的社会结构不能很好的适应需要应对现在复杂的建立在信息上的世界。


In modern societies, institutional constraints such as constitutions and impersonal legal systems circumscribe such heroic figures.	在现代社会，诸如宪法和不受个人感情影响的制度约束限制了这样的英雄人物的活动。


Societies that rely on heroic leaders are slow to develop the civil society and broad social capital that are necessary for leading in a modern networked world.	依靠英雄人物的社会在发展公民社会以及对领导现代网络世界必需的广阔社会资本上是 很缓慢的。


Modern leadership turns out to be less about who you are or how you were born than about what you have learned and what you do as part of a group.	现代领导力较少的关于你是谁或你是怎样出生的，而更多的是关于你学到了什么以及作为一个团体的一部分你做了什么。


Nature and nurture intertwine, but nurture is much more important in the modern world than the heroic paradigm acknowledges.	虽然天生的因素和后天的培养相互交织，但是在现代社会，后天的培养比英雄范例认为的重要得多。


Modern information societies require us to go beyond the “big man” approach to leadership.	现代信息社会需要我们超越对领导人的“大人物”的看法。


It will be interesting to see how these classical stereotypes play out in the American presidential competition this year.	看看这些经典的老套在今年的美国总统竞选中破灭，是很有趣的。


The wilder Brexiteers – shaven heads, national flag tattoos – resemble the English football hooligans infesting European stadiums with their particular brand of violence.	“野生”英国退出派——光头、国旗纹身者——就像是骚扰欧洲球场的英国足球流氓，暴力是他们的招牌。


Live Long and Prosper	长命百岁，繁荣昌盛


Living a long time is one of our deepest wishes, and medical and economic progress offers the hope that it will be fulfilled.	长命百岁是我们的最大愿望，医学和经济进步使这个愿望有了实现的可能。


Some scientists say that the average human lifespan could reach 90 years or more by mid-century.	一些科学家称，人类平均寿命能在本世纪中叶能达到90岁。


But what if our wish is granted?	但是如果我们的愿望实现了怎么办？


What good is a longer life if we cannot maintain our standard of living?	如果不能维持我们的生活水平，更长的寿命又有什么好处呢？


The fundamental difficulty in planning for enhanced longevity is that we do not know whether it will really happen.	寿命延长计划中的主要困难是我们不知道我们是否真的会长寿。


Life expectancy might well be only 80 years by mid-century – about where it is now in advanced countries – if medical progress is disappointing or is offset by new threats or hazards.	如果医学进步让人失望，或者被新出现的威胁和危险所抵消，到本世纪中叶，生命期望值或许也只不过能达到80岁——现在发达国家已经达到这个水平。


If we make provisions for long lives that are cut short, we will have wasted huge amounts of precious economic resources.	如果我们为更长的寿命做好准备，而它却中断了，我们就会浪费大量珍贵的经济资源。


But if we fail to make provisions for lives that are longer, many elderly people will be condemned to poverty.	但是如果我们没有为更长的寿命做足准备，许多老年人就会陷入贫困。


The whole direction of any country’s economy depends on longevity.	任何国家的经济总方向都取决于寿命长度。


A huge number of elderly people would mean a lot of people wanting to live in certain locations, seeking certain kinds of living quarters, and consuming certain kinds of services.	大量的老年人将意味着许多人要生活在某些特定地点，寻求某类住所，消费某种服务。


The types of corporations that will succeed, the buildings that are constructed, and the research and development that will be needed all depend on the demographics of demand.	能获得成功的公司类型、建筑楼房的种类、以及需要何种研究和发展全部依赖于人口需求统计。


This is true of the global economy as well.	全球经济亦是如此。


In his 2005 book The Future for Investors , Jeremy Siegel argues that differences across countries in longevity will interact with differences in wealth levels to form a fundamental determinant of economic relations among countries.	杰里米·席格尔（Jeremy Siegel）在他的2005年新书 《投资者的未来》 中说道，各国不同的寿命长度将与参差不齐的财富水平相互作用，形成决定各国 内部 经济关系中的主要因素。


Trade flows may be driven substantially by longevity: countries expecting a relatively large number of elderly in the future should be running trade surpluses now and deficits later.	从本质上来说，贸易流量取决于寿命长度，那些预计将来会出现相对较多老年人口的国家应该现在实行贸易盈余，以后实施贸易赤字。


Retired people need life annuities – contracts that offer a stable income stream for as long as they live – to insure against the risk of outliving their wealth.	退休人员需要生活年金——一份在他们有生之年提供稳定收入来源的合同——以防止他们的财产不够他们长寿生活的风险。


If there were no longevity risk – that is, if the probability of dying at each age in the future were reliably known – then pension funds could easily offer life annuities to large numbers of people by investing their assets in bonds of various maturities in order to pay out just the right amount each year.	如果没有长寿风险——即，能获知每个年龄可靠的死亡可能性数据——退休金基金就能将很多人的资产按照不同的到期时间投资，每年付出正正好好的数额，这样就很容易向他们发放生活年金。


But pension funds cannot do this, because they risk running out of money if, on average, people turn out to live longer than expected.	但是退休金基金不能这么做，因为如果人们的平均寿命比预期的要长的话，他们就存在资金耗尽的风险。


For people retiring at age 60, the difference between living to 80 and living to 90 is enormous: in the latter case, their pensions would have to pay benefits for 50% longer.	对那些60岁退休的人来说，活到80岁和活到90岁的差别是很大的：若是后者，他们的退休金就必须为多出的50%时间付钱。


As a result, private companies do not offer life annuities at attractive rates, because they cannot be reasonably sure that they can fulfill their promises unless they are significantly overcapitalized.	结果，私人公司不愿意提供较高比率的生活年金，因为他们不能理所当然地肯定他们能够履行承诺，除非他们的资本异常雄厚。


Fortunately, financial markets are beginning to address longevity risk.	幸运的是，金融市场正开始分析长寿风险。


In November 2004, the European Investment Bank (EIB), working with the private bank BNP Paribas, announced that it would issue the world’s first long-term longevity bond.	2004年11月，欧洲投资银行（EIB）和私人银行法国巴黎银行一起宣布，他们将合作发行世界首张长期寿命债券。


The bonds, with a maturity of 25 years, pay out an annual sum of £50 million multiplied by the percentage of the English and Welsh male population aged 65 in 2003 that is still alive in a given year (subject to a slight data lag).	该债券以25年为期，每年根据2003年英国和威尔士65岁男性在此后规定年份仍在人世的人数百分比（数据会有轻微滞后）乘以五千万英镑的数量发放金额。


For example, if 80% of the men are still alive ten years after issuance, the bonds will pay out £40 million.	例如，如果有80%的男人在债券发行十年后依然在人世，债券就要付出四千万英镑。


If only 40% of the men are still alive after twenty years, the bonds will pay out £20 million.	如果只有40%的男人二十年后依然活着，债券将付出二千万英镑。


BNP Paribas hoped to place the bonds with UK pension funds, but so far the issue has not been fully subscribed.	法国巴黎银行希望能把债券和英国的退休金基金放在一起，但是目前为止这个问题还未得到全面赞成。


Most of the likely buyers are slow to make up their minds, since trustees, fund managers, consultants, and employer sponsors must all become comfortable that the new concept is consistent with their fiduciary obligations.	大多数有意向的购买者做决定很慢，因为受信托人、基金管理层、咨询顾问和雇主赞助商必须都对此感到满意，认为这个新概念与他们的信托职责相一致。


Moreover, it is not clear that the EIB can get further help from reinsurers in managing the risks it assumes by issuing such bonds because reinsurers do not yet see how they can fully hedge the risks involved.	此外，还不确定EIB是否能够从再保人那里得到更多的支持以帮助他们控制发行这种债券可能出现的风险，因为再保人还不知道他们如何能全面防范相关的风险。


The slow launch of longevity bonds ultimately reflects a fundamental question: can we genuinely reduce the impact of longevity risk?	长寿债券的缓慢启动从根本反映了一个重要问题：我们真能减小长寿风险的影响吗？


If everyone is affected by longevity risk in the same way, then no matter what the price of a longevity bond, everyone should logically want to be on the same side of the contracts – all buyers at one price, all issuers at another.	如果每个人都以同样的方式受到长寿风险的影响，那么不管长寿债券是什么价格，从逻辑上来说，每个人都希望成为合同的同一方——所有的购买者一个价格，而发行者另一个价格。


No difference means no market.	没有区别就意味着没有市场。


But, in fact, we are not all affected by longevity risk in the same way.	但是，事实上，长寿风险带给我们的影响是不一样的。


Life insurance companies, drug firms, businesses providing services for the elderly, and investors in retirement real estate would all benefit from increased longevity, while defined-benefit pension plans and annuity providers would lose.	人寿保险公司、医药公司、为老年人提供服务的企业，以及退休房地产投资者将都能从寿命延长中获利，然而既定收益退休金计划和年金的提供者将遭受损失。


Less affluent individuals are also more threatened by longevity than those for whom living longer mainly means leaving a smaller inheritance to their children.	与那些寿命更长主要意味着留给儿孙的财产缩水的人相比，长寿给不太富有的个人带来的威胁更大。


Indeed, countries with higher birth rates are less exposed to longevity risk in the next half-century or so than countries with low birth rates.	事实上，在下半个世纪，出生率高的国家将比出生率低的国家遭受更小的长寿风险。


We thus need a large and liquid market for longevity risk so that these different groups can creatively share their risks with each other.	因此，我们需要一个大型且高流通的长寿市场，这样这些不同的群体才能创造性地分担彼此的风险。


In fact, creating such a market is the most important step we can take to address longevity risk, for we could then discover its true price, allowing myriad business decisions involving longevity to be made more efficiently.	实际上，创造这样一个市场是我们能为分析长寿风险所做的最重要的一步，因为通过它我们能够发现长寿风险的真实价格，使大量有关长寿的商业决定更具效率。


There is virtually no history of the price behavior of longevity bonds, so discovering their buyers and sellers, and the prices that clear the market, will take some time.	事实上，长寿债券的价格行为毫无历史可循，因此发现他们的购方和售方、寻求能理清市场的价格还需要一些时间。


But longevity bonds, while only experimental today, will eventually become vitally important to the world economy.	尽管时至今日还只处于试验阶段，长寿债券最终将对世界经济产生重要影响。


Living in History	生活在历史中


LONDON – I recently took part in a public debate with Paul Keating, Australia’s former prime minister.	伦敦-最近我与澳大利亚前总理基廷参加了一次公开辩论。


He is an interesting man, a genuine intellectual driven by his inner demons both to flay those who pay insufficient credit to his transformational role in Australian politics and to expose what he regards as waffle and myths.	他是一个非常有趣的人，一个真正的智者却受困于他的心魔。 他严厉批评那些没有对他在澳大利亚政治中发挥的转型作用给予足够赞誉的人，同时又揭露在他看来是胡扯和虚构的事情。


This regularly engulfs him in controversy, but it can serve an educational purpose.	这常常使他陷入自相矛盾中，但是这可以让我们懂得许多事情。


Recently, for example, he denounced the idea that Australian sacrifices in the Gallipoli campaign of 1916 during World War I had somehow made and redeemed his nation.	比如，最近他谴责那种认为一战期间澳大利亚在1916年加利波利战役中的牺牲在某种程度上造就和赎回了他的国家的观点。


For him, Australian came of age later, at Kokoda, often called Australia’s Thermopylae, when a small group of young soldiers resisted the advance of Japanese army divisions that seemed set to take Port Moresby in Papua New Guinea and threaten the Australian continent.	在他看来，澳大利亚的诞生是在多年以后，在科科达，通常被称为澳大利亚的温泉关战役，当时一小群年轻士兵阻止了日本陆军的几个师试图占领巴布亚新几内亚的莫尔斯比港进而威胁澳大利亚大陆的进军。


Keating believed that the fighting at Kokoda represented the real birth pains of an independent Australia, not some colonial appendage of Britain created to serve imperial purposes in the Far East.	基廷认为在科科达的战斗代表了一个独立的澳大利亚真正诞生的痛苦，而不是英国为了它在远东的帝国利益而建立的某个殖民附属国。


I would not dare to challenge the sensitivities of Australians about their own history.	我不敢对澳大利亚人在关于他们自己历史的敏感问题上提出挑战。


I like their country too much for that.	我太爱他们的国家了，因此绝对不会那样做。


But Keating’s remarks raise a general question about history that goes to the heart of the sense of identity that binds every community.	但是基廷的话提出了一个每个社会都会碰到的涉及到认同感的核心问题。


Most countries fabricate at least some of their history; or they simply whitewash the bits that do not match their heroic idea of themselves.	大多数国家都至少编造了它们历史的某些部分，或者对那些不符合它们自己英雄观念的事情加以掩饰。


My own country, for example, invented much of what it means to be British in order to accommodate Scotland in the eighteenth century to the idea of rule from England, and to persuade the whole of the United Kingdom that it should not object to being ruled by German kings.	比如我自己的国家在英国意味着什么的问题上编造了很多事情，以便将十八世纪的苏格兰说成是在英格兰的统治下以及劝说整个联合王国不应反对受到日尔曼国王的统治。


For my entire adult life, Britain’s sense of its place in the world has been largely defined by Winston Churchill’s leadership during World War II and his views of our role in the world when that war was over.	在我的整个成年时代，英国对它在世界上的地位的看法大部分来自丘吉尔在二战中的领导以及他对战争结束后我们在世界上的角色的观点。


He and other political leaders were keen on a united Europe.	他和其他政治领导人对于一个联合的欧洲充满热情。


But it was meant for others.	但是这是针对其他国家而言的。


Britain was not to be part of it.	英国将不会成为其中的一部分。


History had written a different role for us – sovereign, independent, detached from continental entanglements, and, if not an equal of America, then at least a senior, faithful adjutant.	历史为我们书写了一个不同的角色，主权、独立、远离欧洲大陆的纷争，以及如果地位不是与美国平等的话，至少是它的一个主要的、忠诚的助手。


A little more sharp-eyed honesty about Britain’s real weight in the post-war world might have enabled us British to play a more central role in Europe’s affairs, molding the emerging European Union more closely to our own national interests.	如果我们对英国在战后世界上真正的分量目光稍微敏锐一点并且诚实一些的话，英国本该在欧洲事务中扮演一个更核心的角色，使形成中的欧盟更符合我们国家的利益。


So, when you get history wrong, it can skew your own strategic choices.	所以，如果你误读了历史，就会使你自己的战略选择产生偏差。


But, worse than that, blindness to what really happened in the past can distort the development of your society.	但是，更糟糕的是，对于过去真正发生的事情视而不见将扭曲你的社会的发展。


Sooner or later, the healthiest societies face up to what they have been – good and bad – and grow in decency and self-confidence as a result.	总有一天，最健康的社会将敢于面对它们的过去，不管是好还是坏，从而体面并且自信地成长。


Germany has done that admirably.	德国在这方面的做法令人尊敬。


In the last couple of years, I have seen two painfully honest German films – “Downfall,” about the last days of Hitler, and “The Lives of Others,” about the operations of the former East Germany’s secret police (the Stasi).	过去两年，我看了两部痛苦但却诚实的德国影片：一部是关于希特勒最后日子的《帝国的毁灭》，另一部是关于前东德秘密警察（Stasi）所作所为的《其他人的生命》。


Since those dark days, Germany has developed as a healthy vibrant democracy.	自从那些黑暗的岁月以来，德国发展成了一个健康并且充满活力的民主国家。


Others still have trouble confronting their own history.	还有一些国家依然纠缠于它们自己的历史问题。


Russia stumbles over Stalin and his legacy of evil.	俄罗斯对于斯大林以及他的罪恶遗产吞吞吐吐；


China turns away from a reappraisal of Mao or an honest account of what happened at Tiananmen in 1989.	中国回避重新评价毛泽东以及诚实地透露1989年发生在天安门广场的事情；


Some Japanese still want to write or believe fairy tales about their pre-war and wartime history, which has hugely complicated Japan’s efforts to find a confident and lasting reconciliation with China.	一些日本人依然希望杜撰或相信关于他们在战前和战争期间的历史的谎言，这使日本试图与中国达成相互信任并且永久的和解的努力变得极其艰难。


By contrast, consider the way France and Germany have buried the hatchet and learned to live in peace and trust.	相比之下，我们应该看一看法国和德国言归于好并且学会和平并且相互信任地共存的做法。


It is this extraordinary, historic act that made possible the reconstruction and successful development of Europe over the last half-century.	正是这种特殊、历史性的行动使过去半个世纪欧洲的重建和成功发展成为可能。


There are at least three lessons to draw from these musings of a one-time university history student.	从一位曾经是大学历史系学生的这些思索中至少可以获得三个教益。


First, history teaches you about today as well as yesterday.	第一，历史在教给你昨天的同时也教给你今天的事情。


The English writer G.K. Chesterton once wrote, “The disadvantage of men not knowing the past is that they do not know the present.”	英国作家切斯特顿曾经写道：“不了解过去的人的缺点是他们不了解现在。 ”


Second, in order to understand how to cope with the problems that plague us – from terrorism to nuclear proliferation – it is sensible to know how and whence they emerged.	第二，为了懂得如何应对困扰我们的问题包括从恐怖主义到核扩散，重要的是要了解它们是如何以及在何时出现的。


Why are we faced today with worldwide economic blizzards?	为什么我们今天会面临世界性的经济危机？


How do today’s problems compare with the 1929 financial crash and the depression that followed it?	我们今天面临的问题与1929年的金融危机以及随后产生的经济衰退有什么相似之处？


What does history tell us about the consequences of the protectionist response to those events?	历���告诉我们对这些问题采取保守主义的做法会带来什么后果？


Finally, while nation states remain the basic building blocs in international affairs, and loyalty to your nation – patriotism – is a fine thing, crude nationalism can be deeply destructive.	最后，尽管国家依然是国际事务中的基本成分，并且忠于你的国家也就是爱国主义是一件好事，但是生硬的民族主义是极具破坏性的。


“My country right or wrong” is the parent of much misery.	“我的国家是对还是错”是许多仇恨的根源。


Rigorous historical enquiry can save us from blindness about who we are and what we can do.	对历史进行深入的探究可以使我们不致对我们是谁以及我们能做什么茫然不解。


Historical debate is a sign of a healthy society.	对于历史的争论是一个健康社会的标志。


So three cheers for Keating, right or wrong.	所以我们应该为基廷大声喝彩，不管他是对还是错。


Living on a Volcano	在火山口上生活


As I write this, violent clashes with the police have been going on for nearly two weeks in the suburbs of Paris and other French cities, with cars being set on fire at a rate of nearly 1,000 per night.	我写这篇文章时，在巴黎市郊和法国其它城市发生的民众与警察的暴力冲突已经持续近两周了。 这次冲突中，仅每晚被焚烧的汽车就达到近1，000辆。


Why is this happening?	引发冲突的原因是什么？


How far can it go?	这样的混乱究竟要持续到什么时候？


The existence of thousands of unemployed young people, without income or roots, idle and knowing only violence to express their quest for recognition, is not particularly French.	这个社会里，有成千上万的年轻人既无收入也无根基。 他们无所事事，只知道用暴力来要求社会对他们的承认，这样的问题不仅仅出现在法国。


Everyone remembers the Watts, Newark, and Detroit riots in the United States in the 1960’s, and the riots in Liverpool in the UK in the early 1980’s, as well as in Bradford, Oldham, and Burnley in recent years.	人人都记得20世纪60年代发生在美国的华特暴动、纽华克暴动和底特律暴动，以及20世纪80年代初发生在英国的利物浦暴动，还有近年来发生的布拉德福、奥海姆和伯恩利暴动。


Likewise, France witnessed riots in Vaux-en-Velin, near Lyon, 20 years ago.	同样，20年前法国里昂附近也发生过沃昂夫兰暴动。


So it is important to distinguish what is common to many developed countries and what is specific to France.	因此，分清哪些问题是发达国家所共有的、哪些是法国所独有的就显得非常重要。


All the developed economies have undergone profound changes over the last 30 years.	过去30年来，所有的发达国家都发生了影响深远的变化。


We have gone from managerial to stockowner capitalism, from economies with large doses of state direction to far more deregulated markets, from the active and expansive social policies of the 1960s’ and 1970’s to a world in which such spending is constantly shrinking.	我们从以管理层为核心的资本主义过渡到以股东制为核心的资本主义，从经济在很大程度上由国家控制过渡到逐步解除对市场的管制，从20世纪60、70年代广泛实行积极的社会政策过渡到目前的不断缩减社会开支。


Although wealth has been growing constantly – GDP has more than doubled in the last 50 years – the share of wages in the total has diminished by 10%, even while millions of the rich have become much richer.	尽管财富不断增加¾过去50年来国内生产总值增长了两倍以上¾但工资在财富总额中所占的比例却缩减了10%。 与此同时，成百上千万的富人变得更加富裕。


Everywhere, this has meant massive pauperization of the least favored part of the population. In rich countries, mass poverty, which seemed to have been eliminated around 1980, has reappeared.	在所有地方，这样的变化都使最不幸的那部分人口大规模地陷入贫困，而在富庶国家，似乎已经在20世纪80年代被彻底消灭的大规模贫困又重新死灰复燃。


Access to good education, and even more so to the labor market, is increasingly restricted for many young people, especially those who come from poor or single-parent families or from minority ethnic backgrounds, languages, or religions.	很多年轻人越来越难以获得良好的教育，他们在劳务市场中所处的地位也日益低下，尤其是那些来自贫困或者单亲家庭、或者有少数民族背景、操少数民族语言或信仰少数民族宗教的年轻人，他们受到的影响尤其显著。


These people feel rejected and unrecognized.	这些人感到自己被社会拒之门外，得不到社会的承认。


“Because they want to break us, we will break everything” is the motto that best expresses their mood.	“既然他们要毁掉我们，我们就要砸烂整个世界”的口号最贴切地表达了他们的想法。


There are untold reservoirs of social violence in all of our lands.	我们的每一寸土地上都隐藏着数不清的社会暴力隐患。


But against this shared background, France exhibits some important distinctive features.	但在上面所说的大的背景下，法国又具备某些与众不同的重要特征。


First, demography: for the last 50 years France has had much higher fertility rates than the rest of Europe – 1.9 children per woman, compared to the European average of 1.6 and the German or Spanish rates of 1.3.	首先是人口统计领域：过去50年来，法国的人口出生率远远高于其它欧洲国家¾女性的平均生育数字达到19，而欧洲国家平均为1. 6，德国或西班牙则只有1.


In Germany, every generation entering the labor market is smaller than the one exiting it.	在德国，进入劳务市场的人数总比不上退出的多。 而法国的情况却恰恰相反。


In France, by contrast, 200,000 to 300,000 more people enter the labor market than leave it in each generation – and this does not include immigration, which, although slowing recently, represents a large number of job seekers.	进入劳务市场的人数要比同时期的退出人数高200，000到300，000¾而移民还未被计算在内，虽然近年来的移民数量有所减少，但仍然是寻找工作的主要力量。


As rates of economic growth have declined, this has meant growing unemployment.	随着经济增长率的下降，失业的人数也就越来越多。


Then there is geography: France’s massive urban concentration around the capital – Paris and its suburbs contain nearly 20% of the population – is unique in Europe.	其次要谈谈地理因素：法国的人口高度集中在首都周边的城市地带¾巴黎及郊区容纳了近20%的法国人口，这在欧洲恐怕是独一无二的。


The sheer number of confused and disoriented young people has overwhelmed the French system’s capacity to integrate them – even though its capacity in this regard is, in fact, impressive.	尽管法国就业体系的吸纳能力已经不容小觑，但由于迷失了方向的年轻人数量太大，法国的就业吸纳能力还是显得杯水车薪。


Indeed, France has opened its public educational system to an extraordinary degree, refusing all group rights to minorities, but vigorously affirming personal rights, including full access to all social services, regardless of language, religion, or skin color.	事实上，法国公共教育系统的开放程度已经着实令人惊叹，在剥夺少数族裔集体特权的同时，法国也在积极维护着他们的个人权利，包括为所有语言、宗教或肤色的群体提供全面的社会服务。


The system is cracking, but only because of the limits of its absorptive capacity, not because of its core principles.	虽然我们的体系已经不堪重负，但这纯粹是由于吸纳能力存在一定的限度，而系统的核心原则绝对没有任何问题。


In these circumstances, every French politician has known for the last 20 years that France has been living with a growing risk that isolated incidents might coalesce into a critical mass of violence.	在这种情况下，20年来所有的法国政治家都清楚：这些孤立的事件累积成大规模暴力冲突的危险性越来越大。


The task of social workers and police, therefore, is to try to resolve – quickly and discreetly – each particular incident, in order to dampen the revolt.	正因为如此，社会工作者和警察的任务是迅速妥善地解决每个孤立事件，防止大规模暴力行动的爆发。


What needs to be done also has been well known since 20 years ago, when a nonpartisan report by a cross-party group of big-city mayors unanimously agreed on measures to be taken: efficient repression, highly developed social prevention, a permanent local police presence, and a renewed effort at reintegrating delinquents.	同样，早在20年前，人们就非常清楚要采取哪些措施。 当时，各大城市市长组成的跨党派团体在报告中就需要采取的措施达成一致：那就是有效实施镇压、积极开展社会防治、长期部署地方警力和重新接纳违法人员。


The difficulty with implementing this policy has been that its preventive aspects – social support and reintegration of delinquents – appear to the frightened population living in the affected areas as being “soft on crime” and overly generous.	推行上述政策的难点在于：其中某些预防措施¾即有关社会支持和重新接纳罪犯的政策¾在生活在混乱地区、早已饱受惊吓的居民看来无异于“纵容犯罪”，他们抱怨对违法者的处理太过宽大。


But for the past three years, France has had a government that no longer believes that a socially oriented urban policy works.	但过去3年来，法国政府似乎不再相信以社会为导向的城市政策会起到任何作用。


It believes only in repression and says so openly.	官员们只相信压制，并在公开场合直言不讳地表达。


As a result, local police forces have been reduced from 20,000 to 11,000, while the national riot police (CRS) have been reinforced.	结果，地方警察部队从几年前的20，000迅速锐减至11，000，而国家防暴警察的力量却日渐增强。


France is now experiencing a practical demonstration of this insane and totally inefficient policy, with the Minister of the Interior, Nicolas Sarkozy, providing a telling illustration of the new orientation when he described the rebellious young as “scum.”	现在，法国不得不吞下这一彻底错误的疯狂政策所带来的种种恶果，法国内政部长尼古拉斯·萨尔科奇把参与暴乱的青年们称为“渣滓”，就是这种新取向的生动表现。


It was the proverbial match thrown by a careless smoker into a parched forest.	这个称谓就像被粗心的烟鬼扔到干燥森林中的一根火柴。


The young responded with a vengeance to Sarkozy’s provocation.	萨尔科奇的这种挑衅行为点燃了青年人复仇的烈火。


The main risk now is that events in the suburbs of large French cities will serve as an example to other young people, whether in the less urban areas of France or in other European countries, who feel socially excluded and are, perhaps, just as prone to violent outbursts.	目前所面临的最大危险是：发生在法国主要城市郊区的事件会成为其它年轻人模仿的榜样，他们既可能居住在法国城市化比率较低的区域，也可能生活在其它的欧洲国家，他们感到自己被社会所排斥，也许同样盼望着暴乱的发生。


Solving the problems underlying the French revolt will require time, discretion, mutual respect, community-based social and police work – rather than a centralized, repressive approach – and a lot of money.	解决法国暴乱下面隐藏的问题需要的是时间、耐心、尊重、和以社区为基础的社会警察活动，此外无庸讳言还需要大笔的资金。


But France is by no means the only country that should be worried.	但需要关注上述问题的绝不仅仅是法国。


Anti-Semitism From the Left	来自左翼的反犹主义


NEW YORK – The former London mayor and left-wing Labour politician Ken Livingstone has been suspended from his party for claiming that Hitler was a Zionist in the early 1930s.	纽约—前伦敦市长、左派工党政客肯·利文斯通（Ken Livingstone）因为宣称希特勒在20世纪30年代初是犹太复国主义者而被工党暂停党员资格。


According to Livingstone, “before he went mad and ended up killing six million Jews,” Hitler had merely wanted to expel them from their own countries to Palestine.	利文斯通说：“在变得疯狂、最终杀戮六百万犹太人之前，”希特勒只是希望将他们从所在国家赶回巴勒斯坦。


And that, supposedly, made him a Zionist.	而这应该意味着他是个犹太复国主义者。


Historically, this is nonsense: Hitler never promoted Palestine as a Jewish state.	从历史角度看，这是无稽之谈：希特勒从未宣扬巴勒斯坦是犹太国家。


And the implication that the Führer’s hatred of the Jews put him on the same side as Jews who wished to build their own state to escape from violent anti-Semitism is offensive, to say the least.	而暗示元首对犹太人的仇恨让他与渴望建立自己的国家以逃避暴力反犹主义的犹太人站在同一边绝对是一种冒犯甚至更糟糕的说法。


But Livingstone was probably being sincere when he said in his defense that “a real anti-Semite doesn’t just hate the Jews in Israel, they hate their Jewish neighbor...It’s a physical loathing.”	但 利文斯通在为自己辩护时可能是真诚的。 他说，“真正的反犹主义者不但憎恨以色列的犹太人，也憎恨他们的犹太邻居……这是一种胜利厌恶。


Hating Jews in Israel is fine, then, because they are “Zionists,” and the sentiment isn’t visceral.	”因此，仇恨以色列的犹太人没问题，因为他们是“犹太复国主义者”，并且这一情绪并非发自肺腑。


Jeremy Corbyn, the left-wing leader of Livingstone's party, was no doubt equally sincere when he said that anti-Semitism could not possibly be a problem on the left, because Labour has always been “anti-racist.”	利文斯通所属工党的左翼领导人杰瑞米·科尔宾（Jeremy Corbyn）在声称反犹主义不可能是左派的问题，因为工党总是“反种族主义的”时毫无疑问也同样真诚。


It is a common conceit among leftists in Europe that racial prejudice, including anti-Semitism, is a uniquely right-wing phenomenon.	欧洲的左翼有一种普遍的自负，认为种族偏见（包括反犹主义）无一例外都是一种右倾现象。


This probably goes back to the Dreyfus affair of the late nineteenth century.	这可能要追溯到十九世纪末的德雷福斯事件。


When the French army captain Alfred Dreyfus was falsely accused of treason in a rigged trial in 1894, French society was divided between mostly conservative anti-Dreyfusards and liberal defenders of the Jewish officer.	1894年，法国陆军上尉阿尔弗雷德·德雷福斯（Alfred Dreyfus）在受到操纵的庭审中蒙冤被控叛国，这导致法国社会分裂为两个阵营，一边是反德雷福斯者，大多是保守派，另一边是身为犹太军官的德雷福斯的捍卫者，大多是自由派。


The conservatives were often staunch Roman Catholics, who felt deeply uncomfortable with the secular French Republic, which they associated with liberals and Jews.	保守派通常忠于罗马天主教会，对世俗的法兰西共和国深感不安，认为它是自由派和犹太人的代名词。


Reactionary French anti-Semitism, however, reflected a wider trend in twentieth-century Europe.	但是，反动的法国反犹主义反映了二十世纪欧洲的一个更加广泛的趋势。


Blood-and-soil nationalists, right-wing Christians, fanatical anti-Bolshevists, and authoritarians obsessed with social order were often anti-Semitic.	沉迷于社会秩序的血统与土地（blood-and-soil）民族主义者、右翼基督徒、狂热的反布尔什维克分子和独裁主义者常常是反犹主义者。


Jews fared best under leftist governments.	犹太人在左翼政府治下生活得最好。


This makes it easy to forget that a streak of anti-Semitism has always tainted the left as well.	这很容易让人忘记，一道反犹主义的裂痕一直侵害着左翼。


Stalin was of course notorious for persecuting Jews, or “rootless cosmopolitans” as he called them, whom he regarded as natural agents of capitalism and traitors to the Soviet Union.	当然，斯大林在迫害犹太人——他称之为“无根的国际主义者”，是资本主义的天然代理人、苏联的叛徒——方面臭名卓著。


But well before Stalin, Karl Marx himself, although Jewish by birth, set the tone for a vicious type of anti-Semitism that infected the left, especially in France.	但在斯大林之前，卡尔·马克思本人虽然身为犹太人，却奠定了渗入左翼（特别是欧洲左翼）的反犹主义的恶劣基调。


It was Marx who wrote, “Money is the jealous God of Israel,” and that Hebrew was “the muse of stock exchange quotations.”	马克思写道：“钱就是贪婪的以色列上帝，”希伯来人是“证券交易所报价的缪斯。


Marx was not oblivious to the dangers of anti-Semitism.	”马克思没有忽视反犹主义的危险。


He simply thought they would go away once the worker’s paradise had been established.	他只是认为，只要工人的天堂被建立起来，反犹主义就会烟消云散。


In this, he was clearly mistaken.	在这里，他显然犯了错误。


When the state of Israel was founded in 1948, the Soviet Union and leftists in general were quite sympathetic.	1948年以色列建国时，苏联和一般左翼都持有相当同情的态度。


For several decades, socialists of Russian and Polish extraction dominated Israeli politics.	几十年来，俄罗斯和波兰风格的社会主义者主宰着以色列政坛。


Zionism was not yet regarded as a noxious form of racism, along with apartheid in South Africa.	犹太复国主义并没有被当作堪与南非种族隔离相提并论的恶劣的种族主义的一种形式。


There was no need to “hate the Jews in Israel.”	没有必要“憎恨以色列的犹太人”。


Things began to change in the early 1970s, after the occupation of the West Bank and other Arab territories.	20世纪70年代初，在占领了约旦河西岸和其他阿拉伯领土后，事情开始起变化。


Two intifadas later, the Israeli left finally lost its grip, and the right took over.	两次暴动（intifadas）后，以色列左翼终于失去了控制权，右翼开始得势。


Israel became increasingly associated with the very things leftists had always opposed: colonialism, oppression of a minority, militarism, and chauvinism.	以色列日益与左翼一直反对的东西等量齐观：殖民主义、压迫少数群体、军国主义和沙文主义。


For some people, it was perhaps a relief that they could hate Jews again, this time under the guise of high-minded principles.	对一些人来说，又可以憎恨犹太人��——这一回可以打着高尚原则的旗号，这也许让他们松了一口气。


At the same time, and for much the same reasons, Israel became popular on the right.	与此同时，很大程度上出于同样的原因，以色列受到了右翼的欢迎。


People who might have been fervent anti-Semites not so long ago are now great champions of Israel.	有些人在不久前或许还是狂热的反犹主义者，现在摇身一变成了以色列的大支持者。


They applaud the Israeli government’s tough line with the Palestinians.	他们为以色列政府对巴勒斯坦人的强硬立场欢呼雀跃。


Israel, in a common right-wing view, is a bastion of “Judeo-Christian civilization” in the “war against Islam.”	在右翼的共同观点看来，以色列是“反伊斯兰教战争”中的“犹太-基督文明”捍卫者。


As the Dutch demagogue Geert Wilders once put it: “When the flag of Israel no longer flies over the walls of Jerusalem, the West will no longer be free.”	荷兰煽动家吉尔特·怀尔德斯（Geert Wilders）曾说：“当以色列的旗帜不再飘扬在耶路撒冷城头时，西方也将不再自由。 ”


It is remarkable how often the old anti-Semitic tropes turn up in the rhetoric of these cheerleaders for Israel.	令人瞩目的是，昔日的反犹主义比喻现在往往摇身一变成为这些以色列拉拉队的口头禅。


But this time it is Muslims, not Jews, who are the target.	只是这一回的目标变成了穆斯林而不是犹太人。


Muslims in the West, we are repeatedly told, can never be loyal citizens.	我们被反复告知，西方的穆斯林不可能成为忠诚的公民。


They always stick to their own kind.	他们永远恪守自己的群体。


They will lie to people outside their faith.	他们会对信仰不同的人撒谎。


They are naturally treacherous, a fifth column, bent on world domination.	他们天生狡诈，是第五纵队，觊觎统治世界。


Their religion is incompatible with Western values.	他们的宗教用户西方价值不相容。


And so forth.	如此等等。


The genuine threats coming from a violent revolutionary movement within the Islamic world can make such assertions seem plausible to many people.	伊斯兰世界内部的暴力革命运动的真正威胁可能让许多人认为这些主张相当可信。


But, in most cases, they should be recognized for what they are: tired old prejudices meant to exclude an unpopular minority from mainstream society.	但是，在大部分情况下，应该认清它们的真面目：它们无非是老掉牙的偏见，旨在将不受欢迎的少数群体排除在社会主流之外。


Islamist violence only helps to boost the politics of hatred and fear.	伊斯兰教暴力只能助长仇恨和恐惧的政治。


Many Western warriors in the so-called war against Islam are nothing but our modern-day anti-Dreyfusards.	许多所谓的反伊斯兰教战争的西方斗士无非是当代反德雷福斯者。


None of this excuses the vile language of Livingstone and others like him.	所有这些都不能为利文斯通之流的恶语开拓。


Left-wing anti-Semitism is as toxic as the right-wing variety.	左翼反犹主义和它的右翼变体一样有害。


But the role of Israel in Western political debate shows how prejudices can shift from one group to another, while the underlying sentiments remain exactly the same.	但以色列在西方政治争论中的角色表明了偏见如何将一个群体转化为另一个群体，而其基本情绪没有发生任何变化。


Greening the New Industrial Revolution	绿化新工业革命


VIENNA – Manufacturing industries present society with a dilemma.	维也纳——制造业正使人类社会陷入到进退两难的境地。


A healthy manufacturing sector helps an economy to grow, thereby raising living standards – an especially important goal for developing countries.	健康的制造业有助于经济发展，进而提高生活水平——上述目标对于发展中国家而言尤其重要。


But, as factories try to meet ever-growing consumer demand, they deplete the world’s natural resources and pollute the environment.	但工厂在满足日益增长的消费需求的同时也在消耗世界的自然资源并污染环境。


For some, the world now faces a stark choice between rising prosperity and a cleaner, more sustainable environment.	有人认为世界正面临在经济繁荣和洁净、可持续环境间做出选择。


In fact, with new technology and fresh thinking, policymakers can strike a durable balance between these competing interests.	事实上，利用新技术和新思维，决策者可以在这两种相互矛盾的利益间实现长期的平衡。


In developed countries, consumers are increasingly recognizing that, while their material well-being may be higher than ever, their quality of life suffers if the environment is damaged.	发达国家消费者越来越清醒地认识到尽管物质福利可能超越以往，但环境污染会影响他们的生活质量。


For poorer countries, such concerns are dismissed as a rich-world luxury.	但是对贫困国家而言，他们只是把这种担忧当做富裕国家的奢侈品。


Industrial expansion is the best way to eradicate poverty, and must surely trump environmental concerns.	产业扩张是消除贫困的最佳途径，其重要性无疑在环境问题之上。


No government, rich or poor, can ignore the imperative to encourage economic growth.	任何政府，无论贫富，都不能忽略经济发展的重要性。


The manufacturing sector creates jobs, makes affordable products for cash-strapped consumers, produces vital tax revenue that can be used to support social goals, and brings in foreign currency in the form of export revenue.	制造业创造就业机会、为囊中羞涩的消费者提供经济实惠的产品、产生实现社会目标的重要税收并以出口收入的形式创造外汇。


In short, a well-run manufacturing sector spreads wealth across society.	总之，正常运转的制造业把财富播撒到全社会。


However, trying to satisfy the seemingly endless material demands of consumers at all levels of the economic pyramid has placed an unmanageable burden on the natural world.	但是，满足经济金字塔各级消费者看似无穷无尽的物质需求却给自然界带来了难以承受的负担。


Resources are being consumed more quickly than the planet can replace them.	人们以超过地球替代能力的速度消耗资源。


The manufacturing sector is particularly voracious, devouring over half of all raw materials, around 30% of the world’s energy, and 20% of its water.	制造业表现出的贪婪尤其令人印象深刻，它吞噬了超过半数原材料、30%左右的世界能源和20%的水资源。


In the process, it produces too much waste for our fragile ecosystems to absorb.	同时，我们脆弱的生态系统也无法消化制造业所产生的废物。


Now, public opinion is starting to turn against what is increasingly perceived as plunder on a global scale.	现在，公众舆论开始反对在全球范围内进行掠夺。


Policymakers may not be able to compel citizens to ration their consumption.	决策者也许无法强制公民定量消费。


But governments can encourage manufacturers to change how they operate, so that they use fewer resources and eliminate unnecessary waste.	但政府可以鼓励制造商改变经营方式，让他们减少资源使用并消除不必要的浪费。


Technological innovation and recyclable inputs can make a huge difference to the way the world produces and consumes.	技术创新和回收投入可以从根本上改变世界的生产和消费方式。


Like the dramatic changes once wrought by mass production, there is similar potential in the development and application of 3D printing, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and other resource-efficient technologies.	就像规模生产曾经带来的变化一样，3D打印、生物技术、纳米技术和其他资源节约型技术的开发和应用也具备同样的潜力。


And management thinkers from the late C. K. Prahalad to Jaideep Prabhu have shown how industry can be reconfigured to produce high-quality products cheaply and cleanly.	从已故普拉哈拉德到贾德普•普拉胡的管理思想家已经向人们展示了如何重新配置产业，从而以洁净而廉价地方式制造高质量产品。


Indeed, these technologies and management ideas amount to something of a new industrial revolution – though one that will be very different from the Industrial Revolution that made Great Britain the dominant world power in the nineteenth century and helped it build a global empire.	其实，可以将这些技术及管理理念视为新一次的工业革命——虽然这次革命与19世纪让英国占据世界主导地位、并成为全球帝国的那次革命具有很大的差别。


The current transformation will be more democratic, spreading through global supply chains and modern communications to all countries that are integrated into the global economy.	目前这次转型将会更加民主，通过全球供应链和现代通讯方式渗透到融入全球经济的所有国家。


And it will be characterized by partnerships between government, the private sector, and civil society.	政府、私营部门和民间团体通力合作将是这次革命的特色。


Our challenge, and our historic opportunity, is to recognize this potential and find ways for diverse groups to collaborate and realize it.	看到这种潜力并想方设法促成机构合作既是挑战也是历史机遇。


A Green Industry Conference held recently in Guangzhou, China – following similar events in Manila in 2009 and Tokyo in 2011 – provides a template for this kind of broad cooperation.	继2009年马里拉和2011年东京举行的类似会议后，日前在广州举行的中国绿色产业大会为全面合作建立了新的模式。


Delegates shared best practices, discussed ways to accelerate change in a range of sectors, and sought innovative solutions to old management problems.	代表们分享最佳途径、探讨加速行业转型的方法并探索创新方案解决旧的管理问题。


No one need be left out of this revolution.	这次革命不必要排斥任何人。


Even countries with abundant natural resources do not have to fear the shift to a greener world.	即使拥有丰富自然资源的国家也用不着担心朝着绿色世界的转型。


By adopting new economic models, their large but finite reserves will not be rendered useless; they will simply last longer.	新经济模式不会令他们庞大而有限的资源储备形同虚设； 只能让这些储备持续更长时间。


At the same time, countries facing shortages will gain greatly from being able to reduce their own resource needs.	同时，短缺国家也会从降低自身资源需求中获益匪浅。


Businesses, too, have been quick to adopt new practices.	企业也在迅速采纳新的规范。


Many now routinely monitor and report on their environmental impact.	很多企业现在对环境影响进行定期检测和报告。


Some are even starting to organize around new industrial concepts such as the “circular economy,” which focuses on reducing waste through multiple rounds of recycling.	有些企业甚至开始依据“循环经济”等全新产业理念来组织生产，所谓循环经济的核心是通过多轮次循环利用来减少浪费。


This revolution may have been borne out of necessity; but, with ingenuity and cooperation, it will prove to be profitable, over the long run, for countries, manufacturers, and consumers worldwide.	催生这次革命的或许是实际需要； 但创造力与合作将证实从长远看这次革命能使全世界国家、企业和消费者有利可图。


Local Science for Large Disasters	应对大规模灾难的当地科学


The earth produces a reliable stream of disasters.	地球上不停地发生着灾难。


Some, like AIDS, are chronic; others, like earthquakes or hurricane Katrina, are sudden displays of natural force.	其中有些是长期存在的，比如艾滋病； 而其它则是自然力量的瞬间迸发，像地震或卡特里娜飓风。


In each case, it is expected that a well-financed relief effort will descend from a wealthier region.	每逢灾难发生，人们都期待富裕地区资金实力雄厚的救援组织会迅速采取行动。


But importing assistance may not only be less effective; it might actually cause more damage in the long run.	但外来援助不仅降低了效率，实际还可能造成更为严重的长期破坏。


When a tsunami hits, the first impulse is to bring in First-World experts.	海啸袭来时，人们首先要请第一世界专家参与救灾。


Rescue is the initial priority, followed by ensuring food, shelter, and medical aid.	救援行动是重中之重，其次是确保食品、庇护所和药品的供应。


It is just a matter of getting things done, and it must be done the most effective way, so the operations occur according to the institutional philosophies of donor countries.	整个过程都遵循特定的程序，而且要确保效率的最大化，因此救援行动常会遵循捐赠国在制度上的理念。


But siphoning the habits of one culture into another during a rebuilding process can trigger societal changes that are almost as damaging as the disaster itself, as happened in a small fishing villages in the Philippines in the late 1970’s.	但重建时将一种文化习惯强行移植到另一种文化背景可能会导致社会变化，而这些变化就像灾难本身一样具有破坏性。 20世纪70年代末发生在菲律宾一个小渔村的故事就是最好的证明。


In 1978, Typhoon Rita wiped out the fleet of handmade wooden fishing boats in a group of sea-dependant Philippine communities.	1978年，台风丽塔（Rita）将捕鱼为生的菲律宾社区中手工打造的木质渔船毁坏殆尽。


Relief was fast and effective, consisting first of subsistence aid, followed by “restoration” of the fishing fleet.	救援行动迅速有效，首先是发放生活给养，接着就是“重建”捕鱼船队。


The old boats, which rotted every few years, were replaced by modern fiberglass versions with small gasoline engines.	老式的渔船使用几年就会腐烂，现在换上了现代化的玻璃钢制品，船上还配备有小型的汽油发动机。


At the time, this was touted as a textbook case of doing things right.	当时，这次救援被当作样本行动而广受赞誉。


The fishing economy rebounded and flourished – but only for about ten years. After that, the entire society collapsed.	当地的渔业生产迅速恢复和繁荣¾可惜好景不长，10年后整个社会就濒于崩溃。


Over thousands of years, the culture had come to depend on the central role of boat builders.	几千年来，当地文化都非常依赖造船工人的核心作用。


They were the anchor of society, acting in effect as priests, teachers, and judges.	他们是社会的顶梁柱，在实际生活中扮演着教士、老师和法官的角色。


Subsistence flowed according to their goodwill and was supported by conventions of sharing and trust.	当地的生活以道德准则为核心，建立在分享和信任的基础之上。


After the relief effort, this complex human balance was replaced by a cash economy, and the power brokers became those who could dole out the rare, precious petrol.	救援行动后，这种复杂的人文平衡就被金钱经济所取代，而只有那些政治掮客可以向民众施舍稀有、昂贵的汽油。


An entire culture was effectively destroyed by efficient relief.	当地完整的文化就在这样高效的救援之下被毁于一旦。


This scenario has been repeated over and over in diverse contexts.	同样的悲剧在不同的场合一再重演。


The first impulse is to solve problems in the most established manner.	人们最初是希望以最现成的方式解决问题。


But, lacking sensitivity to local dynamics, the outcome is severely compromised.	但由于缺乏对当地动态环境的深入了解，其效果却是大打折扣。


The solution seems simple: create and subsidize small science centers in regions at risk of disaster. The primary objective of these centers would be “normal” science, with missions and profiles that feed from their local context.	解决的方法其实也很简单：那就是在可能受灾的地区创立并资助小型的科学中心，它们主要致力于科学的“平民化”，无论使命还是人员都植根于当地的土壤。


At-risk regions would develop culturally appropriate ways to deal with the catastrophes most likely to affect them.	有受灾危险的地区要找到符合当地文化的方法，来应对可能降临的灾难。


In addition, local talent would be nurtured in its home context.	不仅如此，这种本地化的氛围也有利于培养当地的人才。


This philosophy would benefit places like New Orleans as much as Phuket in Thailand.	这种理念在新奥尔良和泰国的普吉岛同样行之有效。


Indeed, while it might seem as though there would be no problem of cultural transposition in the case of Hurricane Katrina, an examination of the tragedy reveals otherwise.	实际上，尽管乍看上去在卡特里娜风灾中似乎没有文化移植的影响，但仔细研究之下却不是这样。


It has been overwhelmingly observed that the worst-hit people in New Orleans were poor African-Americans living in the city’s low-lying districts.	人们都看到新奥尔良受灾最严重的是那些生活在城市低地的贫困的非洲裔美国人。


To be sure, many of these inner-city residents simply lacked the resources to evacuate easily.	有一点可以肯定，生活在贫民区的居民根本没有撤离所需要的资源。


But it is beginning to emerge that many also preferred to stay in a social environment that they trusted rather than fleeing to safer, but foreign, surroundings.	但人们也开始意识到另外一种因素，那就是很多人宁愿选择留在自己所信任的社会环境，也不愿逃到安全但却陌生的地方。


Critics also cite the diversion of infrastructure funds and Louisiana National Guard troops to Iraq as contributing causes to the emergency.	批评者也把挪用基础设施资金和派遣路易斯安娜国民警卫队到伊拉克列为这次受灾的原因。


These factors clearly played a role, but, overall, if a body of scientifically inclined people from the inner city had been involved in flood control and evacuation planning, the consequences of hurricane Katrina would certainly have been managed more effectively.	这些因素可能起了作用，但总的说来，如果新奥尔良有本地学者参与控制洪水和制定撤离计划，卡特里娜飓风所造成的后果肯定能得到有效的控制。


By contrast, the inappropriateness of transplanting troops from Iraq into an emergency rescue operation is obvious.	恰恰相反，把部队从伊拉克调回来参与紧急救援有多不合适也是非常明显的。


The fight against AIDS – a battle that depends heavily on social modification – highlights in perhaps the clearest way the problems that always occur when local culture is ignored.	在很大程度上有赖于社会改革的抗艾滋病战斗，也许最能清晰地反映出忽视当地文化所带来的后果。


Societal mechanisms simply cannot be adjusted without a crisp, practiced understanding of a culture.	如果没有对某种文化清晰、客观的理解，改革社会机制就会彻底沦为空谈。


And this cannot be merely intuitive. It must be scientific, that is, based on the best methods and models.	而且这种理解不能只停留在直觉的层面上，而必须以科学，也就是最佳方法和最佳模型做为基础。


For this reason, there should be two points of contact during a catastrophe.	综上所述，灾难降临时要依靠两条线。


Groups of critical thinkers – the “experts” – should be on hand to advise on how to avoid second-order disasters.	其一是批评思想家¾也就是所谓“专家”，他们向人们提供建议，告诉他们如何避免第2轮的灾难。


Even though many of them might not have studied the local culture, they can nonetheless provide guidance that has been informed by the world’s most expensive infrastructure.	即便他们当中的很多人没有研究过当地文化，但一样可以提供指导，因为他们掌握着全球最昂贵的研究设备所得到的研究成果。


At the same time, relief efforts should be managed by a local science center that is known and trusted by those in danger.	与此同时，救援行动应该由当地的科学中心掌管，因为他们拥有受灾群众的信任和爱戴。


The implications of this approach extend far beyond disaster relief.	这种方式的意义远不止于灾难救援领域。


A robust scientific establishment is the root of any economy, and there will be no real development in the Third World without it.	充满活力的科学机构是经济发展的根源，没有它也就谈不上第三世界的任何发展。


An investment in local science is therefore a direct infusion into a community’s growth potential, one that eventually will reward investors with new breakthroughs.	因此，投资当地科技相当于直接增强当地的发展潜力，这最终会给投资者带来新的突破。


After all, nothing is better for innovation than a scientist working outside conventional institutions, solving a problem that will save his or her family.	归根结底，没有什么能够比传统科研机构以外的科学家更有利于创���，因为他们会为了拯救自己的一家老小而找到问题的解决办法。


Locust Capitalism	蝗虫资本主义


Germany invented socialism.	德国发明了社会主义。


Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels were Germans.	卡尔·马克思（Karl Marx）和弗里德里希·恩格斯（Friedrich Engels）是德国人。


The Social Democratic movement that shaped the modern European welfare state also originated in Germany.	造就了当代欧洲福利国家的社会民主运动也发源于德国。


Although the country profited greatly from its reintegration into the world trading system after World War II, Germany never really came to terms with Anglo-Saxon capitalism and skepticism about it still runs deep.	尽管德国二战后重新融入世界贸易体系并从中受益匪浅，它却从未真正认同过盎格鲁-萨克逊资本主义，并对此一直持有怀疑态度。


Now, with Germany’s economy no longer functioning smoothly, capital moving abroad, and unemployment rising, criticism of capitalism is again gaining momentum.	如今，在德国经济不再如以前那样正常运作、资本不断流向国外、失业率持续上升的情形下，对资本主义的批评声重新抬头。


The public is upset about top managers’ salaries and the fact that big German companies fire workers despite record profits.	上层主管的高额收入以及一些德国大公司尽管账面盈利但却开始解雇工人的做法让人们心烦意乱。


In response, the government has urged managers to publish their incomes and abolished the bank secrecy laws that were once considered sacrosanct.	作为回应，政府开始敦促高层主管公布他们的收入，并取消了曾一度被视为神圣不可侵犯的银行保密规定。


This new critique of capitalism recently culminated in a series of attacks by the leader of the Social Democratic Party, Franz Müntefering.	社会民主党领导人弗兰茨·明特费林（Franz Müntefering）最近发起的一系列攻击使得人们对资本主义的新批评声达到了高潮。


He accused entrepreneurs who outsource production to low-wage countries of showing excessive greed and lack of social responsibility, and he compared the managers of international equity funds to a plague of locusts that occupy companies, exploit them, and move on after their destructive work is done.	明特费林指责那些把生产外包给低工资国家的企业家们过贪婪度，缺乏社会责任感，并把国际股票基金的管理者比作一群蝗虫，他们先占领公司，竭泽而渔，等到所有破坏结束后，再辗转到另一家。


These attacks brought Müntefering vast public support and triggered a major debate.	这些攻击言论使明特费林获得了众多民众支持，并引发了一场声势浩大的辩论。


Germany’s media largely supports the critique.	大部分德国媒体支持这种批评之声。


Günter Grass, a Nobel Prize winner in literature, joined the chorus of critics, complaining about the fading of political power in a time of globalization.	君特·格拉斯（Günter Grass），一位诺贝尔文学奖获得者，也参与了这场批评家大合唱，控诉政治力量在全球化时代正在逐渐消失。


He ridiculed today’s conditions as “stock market-defined liberty.”	他把如今的状况嘲笑为“股票市场定义的自由”。


Opposition leaders do not like the subject, but they avoid challenging it.	反对派领导人不喜欢这个话题，但是他们却尽量避免触及它。


Only a few economic journalists and university professors are willing to object.	仅有一些经济记者和大学教授准备提出反对意见。


One Jewish professor at a Munich university actually compared Müntefering’s language to Nazi slogans.	有一位慕尼黑大学的犹太教授还将明特费林的话比作纳粹口号。


Entrepreneurs and managers swallow their anger and show their disapproval only by silently speeding up their relocation decisions.	企业家和管理层则压住他们的怒火，不动声色地加速他们的迁徙决定以表达他们的不满。


But Müntefering has a point.	但是明特费林说中了一点。


Abolition of taxes on realized capital gains increased the sales of shares enormously.	取消对已实现的资本收益进行税收一举大大增加了股票的销售。


International equity funds stepped in, providing companies with urgently needed liquidity while disentangling the traditional ownership network. Germany, Inc. is on its last legs.	国际股票基金于是介入其中，为公司提供他们所急需的流动资金，同时瓦解传统的所有权网络。 德国企业因此奄奄一息。


The good news is that Germany’s overblown conglomerates are being scaled down to an efficient size and that the capital market is able to do its job, improving the allocation of resources.	好消息是德国正在着手于将过于庞大的混合联合企业削减至有效规模，以使得资本市场能有效运作并能改善资源分布。


The bad news is that financial capital is moving abroad to finance other overblown conglomerates.	坏消息却是金融资本正在流向国外资助其他的混合经营企业。


In net terms, though, there may be more growth worldwide as well as in Germany. Whatever the case, for many Germans the capitalist allocation processes they are seeing make no sense.	尽管全世界和德国一样资本净额都在增长，但不管怎样，对许多德国人来说，他们此刻目睹着的资本重组其实毫无意义。


There were times when German capitalism was shown greater respect.	曾经，德国的资本主义备受尊重。


In the postwar period, Germany’s economic miracle calmed skeptics of capitalism.	在战争结束后的那段时间内，德国的经济奇迹平抚了人们对资本主义的批评。


Starting with extremely low wages and an underdeveloped currency, German workers succeeded in competing against the world.	德国一开始的工资水平极低，货币也不尽发达，但是德国工人成功地抗衡了世界竞争。


Wages rose rapidly and most Germans experienced growing prosperity.	他们的工资迅速增长，大部分德国人都经历了日益繁荣的时代。


Ludwig Erhard’s liberal economic approach worked and the socialist ideas found in the party programs of the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats were forgotten.	路德维希·艾哈德（Ludwig Erhard）的自由经济方案起效了，社会学家的观点出现在社会民主党的计划中，而基督民主党被彻底忘却。


During the 1970’s, Germans went overboard, confusing capitalism with self-service shops.	上世纪七十年代，德国鲁莽行事，将资本主义和自助式商店混为一谈。


They began to expand their welfare state, pushing the government’s share in GDP from 39% to 49% and welcoming union-proposed double-digit wage increases.	他们开始扩大他们的福利制度，将政府支出在GDP中的比例从39%提高至49%，对欧盟提议的双位数的工资增长表示欢迎。


The signs of the fading miracle became visible when Japanese competitors and other Asian Tigers succeeded in wiping out substantial parts of Germany’s labor-intensive textile, optical products, and precision engineering industries.	当日本竞争者和其他亚洲虎成功地将德国劳力密集的纺织业、光学产品以及精密机械工程的产业部分挤出市场，奇迹消失的信号出现了。


Nevertheless, the public still believed in perpetual growth.	但是，公众们仍然对永久性的经济增长深信不疑。


Only after the Iron Curtain’s fall and the establishment of market economies in ex-communist countries did the lack of competitiveness of German workers become apparent.	就在铁幕倒塌、前社会主义国家确立了市场经济之后不久，德国工人缺乏竞争力的事实就变得显而易见。


The country with the highest labor costs in the world was confronted with low-wage competitors next door.	这个世界上劳力价格最高的国家不得不面对来自邻国的低工资竞争者的挑战。


Wage costs in the ten new EU member countries are still only one-seventh their level in western Germany; wage costs in Rumania and Bulgaria are one-tenth.	新欧盟成员国的工资仅占西德水平的七分之一； 罗马尼亚和保加利亚仅为十分之一。


Chinese wages are even lower, at just 4% of the western German average.	中国的工资甚至更低，只占西德平均工资的4%。


German firms reacted by outsourcing the labor-intensive parts of their production chains and curtailing their investment in Germany.	由此，德国公司将他们生产流��中的劳力密集部分外包个给其它国家，并减少他们在国内的投资。


The share of net investment in GNP is now the second lowest in all OECD countries.	在经济合作发展组织（OECD）国家中，现在德国GNP中净投资所占的比例名列倒数第二。


Because investment is so low, net capital exports from Germany are nearly 4% of GDP.	由于投资过低，德国的净资本出口只占GDP的约4%。


Now unemployment is Germany’s biggest problem, standing at a postwar record.	如今，失业成为了德国二战结束以来最为棘手的一个问题。


This alarms the public and incites anger against capitalists who do not reinvest their profits.	这警告了公众，也引发了公众对那些不肯将盈利所得重新投资于国内的资本家的怒火。


Müntefering simply caught the popular mood in developing his theory of locust capitalism.	明特费林正是轻易地抓住了民众的普遍心理发展了他的蝗虫资本主义理论。


But this useless reaction to the laws of the global market economy hides the fact that Germany’s problems are largely a result of an overblown welfare state and extremely aggressive union policies over the last thirty years.	但是这种对全球市场经济规则的无效反应隐藏了一个事实，即德国的问题从很大程度上来说是过去三十年以来福利过度和欧盟极度侵略性政策的结果。


Even Marx knew that the iron laws of economics could not be overcome by wishful thinking.	就连马克思也知道，良好的意愿无法战胜经济的铁律。


Müntefering should have consulted his party’s forefather more carefully before opening his mouth.	明特费林在说话之前应该更仔细地向自己党派的的开山之父好好讨教一下。


London vs. the Eurozone	伦敦 vs 欧元区


LONDON – Ever since the United Kingdom joined the European Economic Community in 1973, after the French withdrew Charles de Gaulle’s veto of its membership, Britain’s relationship with the European integration process has been strained.	伦敦——自1973年法国收回戴高乐的否决票让英国加入欧洲经济共同体以来，英国与欧洲一体化进程之间的关系从来没有取得过进展。


The British are reluctant Europeans, for historical and cultural reasons.	由于历史和文化的原因，英国人一直与欧洲人貌合神离。


For centuries, British foreign policy strove to avoid permanent European entanglements; but, most importantly, it aimed to prevent a single continental power from achieving dominance – especially if that power happened to be France.	几个世纪以来，英国的外交政策一直在尽力避免与欧洲永远绑在一起； 但更重要的是，这是在防止大陆势力取得主导地位，特别是这一势力恰好是法国的话。


In the meantime, the British colonized large portions of the globe.	与此同时，英国在全球广开殖民地。


Later, after the sun set on their empire, they tried to maintain a “special relationship” with the United States.	随后，随着日不落帝国的太阳终于落下，英国又开始试图维持与美国的“特殊关系”。


Joining the European Union was not an affirmation of belief in European integration, but rather a reluctant recognition that the transatlantic strategy had run its course.	加入欧盟并非表明英国相信欧洲一体化，而是不得不承认跨大西洋关系进展缓慢。


British public opinion concerning the EU has since remained lukewarm, at best.	英国公众对欧盟的态度往好了说，也只是不冷不热。


In recent years, having opted-out of the single currency and the Schengen area (which allows Europeans to cross borders without passports), the UK has distanced itself from important EU initiatives.	近几年来，英国选择退出单一货币和申根协议（允许欧洲人在不用护照的情况下自由地穿越国境），一直与重要的欧盟计划保持着距离。


Nonetheless, Prime Minister David Cameron surprised everyone by vetoing a new EU treaty on December 9 – a first for the UK since joining the Union – leaving the other 26 member states to press ahead with greater fiscal integration on their own.	尽管如此，12月9日卡梅伦首相否决欧盟新条约的举动还是令世人震惊，这是英国加入欧盟以来第一次这样做。 否决新条约将使剩下26个成员国领先英国一步，走向更深层次的财政一体化。


More surprisingly, the negotiations broke down over arcane details of financial regulation.	更令人震惊的是，条约谈判是在金融监管的细枝末节上谈崩的。


For example, Cameron wanted to strike a “red line” through the proposal to subject the planned Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive to the Qualified Majority Voting procedure (meaning that no member state would have veto power).	比如，卡梅伦要求删掉一条“红线”，以免计划中的《存款担保机制条例》（Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive）受到“合格多数否决”（Qualified Majority Voting）程序（意味着没有哪个成员国拥有否决权）的约束。


Cameron also objected to the requirement that third-country financial firms in London without business in other EU states be required to hold a “single passport,” which would enable them to operate in any member country, but would also require them to submit to Europe-wide regulations.	卡梅伦还反对要求在伦敦的没有其他欧盟国家业务的第三国金融企业申请“单一护照”才允许在遵守泛欧洲监管规则的情况下与欧盟成员国做生意。


These points are not entirely insignificant, but I would not care to explain them to a meeting of ordinary voters puzzled about Britain’s new European policy.	这些点并非完全不重要，但换做是我，肯定不会在普通选民搞不清英国新的欧洲政策的会议上解释它们的。


So why has financial regulation become the unlikely casus belli between the UK and its partners?	那么，为什么金融监管会成为英国及其伙伴之间宣战的不是原因的原因？


The explanation is partly political.	部分是出于政治原因。


Cameron’s Conservative Party includes members who have been spoiling for a fight with the EU for a long time.	卡梅伦的保守党中不乏长期以来都想和欧盟作对之士。


For them, any excuse will do, and EU Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier has provided them with ammunition by pursuing what many see as an excessively restrictive regulatory agenda.	对他们来说，任何借口都可以，而欧盟内部市场委员巴尼耶（Michel Barnier）正好提供了导火线——他提出了一个许多人看来过于严厉的监管日程。


When horse-trading for Commission jobs took place in 2009, former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown was warned of the danger of allowing the French to hold the Internal Market post.	在2009年就卡梅伦上台事宜讨价还价时，前首相布朗就收到过警告，说让法国人把持内部市场委员的位子是十分危险的。


But he chose instead to bid for the EU foreign-policy job for his Labour Party ally, Baroness Ashton.	但他选择了为其工党同侪阿什顿（Baroness Ashton）争取欧盟外交政策委员的位子。


When Barnier was appointed, French President Nicolas Sarkozy described it as a “defeat for Anglo-Saxon capitalism.”	巴尼耶获得任命后，法国总统萨科齐称之为“对盎格鲁-撒克逊资本主义的胜利”。


And so it has proved – though perhaps not in the way he envisaged.	此话可谓中的——虽然未必是萨科齐的本意。


But beneath the politics, there are other substantial conflicts between the UK and its continental neighbors.	但在政治的表象下，英国与其大陆邻邦还有其他众多纠结不清的冲突。


Barnier favors European directives that impose uniform rules for all member states – so called “maximum harmonization” measures.	巴尼耶赞成欧洲统一行动，为所有成员国设置统一规则，即所谓的“和谐最大化”措施。


Previously, EU directives tended to impose minimum standards, which individual countries could supplement if they wished.	此前，欧盟方案倾向于实施最低标准，各国可以按自己的喜好进行补充。


They could outlaw initiatives that the UK holds dear, such as new rules to ring-fence retail banks’ subsidiaries and impose higher capital requirements on them.	欧洲方案可能宣布英国视为至宝的内容为非法，比如零售银行分支的围篱政策以及更高的资本要求。


The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has voiced his anxieties on that point.	英格兰银行行长金（Mervyn King）以对此表达了担忧。


British officials are also deeply concerned about measures that would oblige clearinghouses that transact their business primarily in euros to be located within the single-currency area.	英国官员还担心，新方案将规定主要从事欧元交易业务的清算所必须设在单一货币区内。


Indeed, the British government was already taking the European Central Bank to court to challenge that policy before the treaty veto.	事实上，在否决新条约以前，英国政府已将欧洲央行诉诸法院，以挑战这一政策。


They may have a point; arguably, the ECB’s proposal is inconsistent with single-market principles.	他们可能会提出一个极有道理的论点：欧洲央行的方案违反了单一市场原则。


The key point of contention, however, is the pan-European Financial Transactions Tax, which the European Commission proposed with support from both Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.	不过，争论的焦点在泛欧洲金融交易税上���萨科齐和德国总理默克尔都支持欧盟的这一方案。


From a UK perspective, the FTT is highly unattractive.	从英国的角度看，金融交易税一无是处。


Between 60% and 70% of the revenue would be raised in London, yet the EU would spend most of the money to shore up eurozone finances.	该税收大约60%—70%的数额将在伦敦征收，但欧盟会把税额的绝大部分用于提振欧元区财政上。


For Britons, this idea stirs sentiments akin to what Germans might feel if the EU proposed a new tax on liverwurst, with the proceeds to go into the central pot.	对英国人来说，这个主意之于英国，就好像是对猪肉香肠开征新税之于德国，钱都被中央收走了。


They also point out that, unless an FTT were agreed globally, financial companies would quickly migrate from London to New York.	他们还指出，除非金融交易税在全球实施，否则金融企业将很快从伦敦逃往纽约。


This is Cameron’s best argument on the financial front.	这是卡梅伦在金融阵线上的最佳论点。


But he did not deploy it strongly, for the simple reason that tax policies in Europe are still subject to the unanimity rule.	但他并没有大力宣扬这一点，原因很简单，欧洲税需要全体成员国一致通过。


In other words, Britain can block the proposed FTT without a special protocol.	换句话说，英国不需要特殊协议就能否决金融交易税。


This lends weight to the argument that Cameron’s veto was essentially a political move, intended to bolster his domestic support.	这使得人们更容易相信，卡梅伦的否决本质上是一种政治动作，目的是为了赢得其在国内的支持度。


That is a big gamble, given that the UK now appears to be shuffling towards the EU exit.	这是一场豪赌，英国现在正在滑向退出欧盟的边缘。


Certainly, the new status quo looks unsustainable, with 26 countries moving towards greater integration while the 27th remains aloof.	显然，新的现状是不可持续的——26个成员国迈向进一步统一，而第27个成员国却渐行渐远。


How will financial firms react?	金融企业的反应会是如何呢？


Will they be pleased that London has stamped its collective foot, even though Cameron’s regulatory demands were not accepted?	会因伦敦抵制住了欧盟一致决定而高兴？ 还是就连卡梅伦的监管要求也不愿意接受？


Or will some simply begin to contact real-estate agents to line up office space in Paris or Frankfurt?	还是开始巴黎和法兰克福的地产经纪物色办公场所？


The game – London versus the eurozone – has only just begun.	角力——伦敦对欧元区——才刚刚开始。


It will make for fascinating viewing in the months and years to come.	好戏要等几个月甚至几年之后才看得见。


The Long-Term Investment Challenge	长期投资挑战


PARIS – As the deepest economic crisis of our lifetimes stretches into its seventh year, most OECD countries are continuing to underperform.	巴黎—我们这一代最深刻的经济危机已经进入了第七个年头，大部分经合组织国家表现仍然低迷。 今年，世界发达经济体GDP增长率预计为2%，而全球为3.


This year, GDP growth in the world’s advanced economies is expected to average 2%, compared to 3.2% worldwide.	2%。 2016年也好不到哪里去，经合组织产出增长预计为2.


And 2016 is shaping up to be no better, with output in the OECD growing by 2.5%, while the rest of the world’s GDP expands at a 3.8% rate – close to the pre-crisis average.	5%，而其他地区GDP增长率预计为3. 8%——接近危机前平均水平。


But the long-term economic prospects of the global economy as a whole look gloomy.	但全球经济的总体长期前景相当黯淡。


As societies in many OECD countries age, and catch-up growth in large emerging economies begins to wind down, global GDP growth is expected to fall from its annual average of 3.6% in the 2010-2020 period to an estimated 2.4% in 2050-2060.	许多经合组织国家社会面临老龄化，而大型新兴经济体的赶超增长开始减速，预计全球GDP年均增长率将从2010—2020年间的3. 6%下降至2050—2060年间的2.


This slump may be inevitable, but it can be mitigated.	如此下降也许难以避免，但程度可以减轻。


Implementing policies to facilitate and reward long-term investments will be key to exiting the current crisis and boosting the world’s growth potential.	实施政策以刺激和奖励长期投资将是走出当前危机、提振世界增长潜力的关键。


Investments, both public and private, are needed to foster green growth, support innovation and entrepreneurship, contribute to closing the inequality gaps that have widened during the crisis, and help build the skills that are essential for more resilient economies and more inclusive societies.	投资，不论公共投资还是私人投资，是促进绿色增长、支持创新和企业家精神、弥合危机期间不断扩大的不平等差距、帮助构建恢复力更强的经济和包容性更好的社会所必须的技能的必要条件。


And, though meeting these needs will require transformational changes in the behavior of governments and investors, the payoff will be significant.	此外，尽管满足和谐需求需要政府和投资者行为发生重大变化，但回报也是巨大的。


In short, as we argued during the OECD Forum and annual Ministerial Council Meeting last week, this time we need to promote investments that focus on people and the planet.	简言之，正如我们在上周的经合组织论坛和部长委员会年会中指出的，这一回，我们需要促进以人和地球为核心的投资。


The list of structural challenges facing countries around the globe is a long one.	全球各国面临着多种多样的结构挑战。


But efforts to overcome at least four – high unemployment, an aging workforce, climate change, and infrastructure deficiencies – would benefit significantly from policies promoting long-term investments.	但促进长期投资的政策能够大大有利于克服其中至少四项挑战的措施——高失业、劳动力老龄化、气候变化和基础设施不足。


Addressing the unemployment crisis, which has been particularly burdensome for the young, will require not only a strong recovery, but also a renewed focus on the development of skills.	解决失业危机——年轻人的就业包袱尤其沉重——不但需要强劲的复苏，还需要关注新技能的发展。


Investment in high-quality vocational education and training and work-based learning will be essential.	投资于高质量职业教育和培训以及在职学习至关重要。


These types of investments continue to be beneficial throughout a worker’s life, as exposure to new skills and knowledge allows him or her to adapt to an evolving technological and business environment.	这类投资的好处将贯穿工人的一生，获得新技能和知识能让他们适应变化的技术和商业环境。


Empowering today’s workers will also help meet the challenges resulting from aging populations.	赋予今天的工人以能力也有助于面对人口老龄化带来的挑战。


Moreover, an increased focus on long-term investment will help resolve the conflicts traditionally associated with addressing climate change and building infrastructure.	此外，更多关注长期投资有助于解决传统上与气候变化和基础设施建设有关的冲突。


One requires cuts in the emission of greenhouse gases; the other has tended to promote the combustion of fossil fuels for transport and energy.	其中一个挑战需要减少温室气体排放，另一个挑战倾向于促进交通和能源用途的化石燃料燃烧。


The solution is relatively simple, provided the presence of political will: By putting a price on carbon and repealing policies that incentivize fossil-fuel consumption, investments can be channeled into the creation of a low-carbon economy, including the necessary clean-energy infrastructure.	解决方案相对简单，如果有政治意愿的话：通过给碳定价并取消鼓励化石燃料消费的政策，投资就可以被导向构建低碳经济，包括必要的清洁能源基础设施。


In order to encourage private investors to pursue long-term, responsible projects, governments need to promote consistent policies and frameworks.	为了鼓励私人投资者追求负责任的长期项目，政府需要推进一致性政策和框架。


In addition to immediate uncertainties, investors are being held back by a shortage of incentives and a surplus of factors that reduce returns.	除了眼前的不确定性，投资者还因为缺少激励和各种回报递减因素而止步不前。


These include restrictive regulations that reduce firms’ ability to undertake new activities or enter new markets, especially across borders.	这些包括降低企业从事新活动或进入新市场（特别是需要跨境的情形）能力的严格监管。


The OECD’s updated Policy Framework for Investment provides a blueprint for the promotion of investment and responsible business conduct.	经合组织的最新投资政策框架为促进投资和负责任的商业活动提供了蓝图。


Governments will also have to facilitate the participation of institutional investors.	政府还必须为机构投资者的参与提供便利。


The challenge of long-term investment cannot be resolved without attracting more diverse and private sources of finance.	如果无法吸引更加多元化和私人化的资金来源，就无法解决长期投资挑战。


In 2013, institutional investors in OECD countries alone held more than $57 trillion in assets, and pension funds collected around $1 trillion in new contributions.	2013年，经合组织国家机构投资者所持有的资产总额高达57万亿美元以上，而退休基金新进资金就高达1万亿美元左右。


Tools that could be used to leverage institutional investments include public-private partnerships to develop clear and transparent project pipelines for major green infrastructure projects, green banks and green bonds, and instruments that mitigate risk and enhance the availability of credit.	可用于撬动机构投资的工具包括公私合作开发清洁和交通项目渠道以便利绿色基础设施项目、绿色银行和绿色债券，以及降低风险、增加可用信用的金融工具。


Regulations for international accounting and funding will have to be examined to identify policies that inadvertently discourage institutional investors from putting their resources into longer-term, illiquid assets.	必须考察国际会计这融资监管，找出哪些政策导致机构投资者不愿意把资源投向流动性较差的长期资产。


Finally, public equity markets will have to be strengthened.	最后，必须提振股市。


Savings must be channeled to firms that need capital for innovation and sustainable job creation.	储蓄必须流向需要资本进行创新和可持续就业创造的企业。


Today, however, the quality of corporate-governance frameworks worldwide is challenged by the growing complexity of investment chains and the dominance of passive and short-term investment strategies.	但是，如今，由于投资链的日益复杂和消极短期投资策略成为主流，全球公司治理框架质量正在接受挑战。


In a globally interdependent world, a better financial and investment system cannot be achieved on a country-by-country basis.	在全球互相依存的世界中，更好的金融和投资体系无法通过各国各自为政的方式实现。


There may be no one-size-fits-all model for economic development, but, without global standards and complementary regulations, the long-term outlook for the world economy will remain bleak.	对于经济发展，也许不存在万能模式，但如果没有全球标准和胜任规则，世界经济的长期前景也将十分黯淡。


Losing Latin America	失去拉美


When is the United States going to wake up to what is happening in Latin America?	美国要到什么时候才能认识到拉美正在发生的事情呢？


The growing influence of Venezuela’s leftist president, Hugo Chávez, is casting a dark shadow over the region.	委内瑞拉的左派总统查维斯越来越大的影响力使整个地区都笼罩在阴影之下。


Some countries – Chile, Columbia, and Costa Rica, for example – remain committed to progressive growth-oriented and democratic regimes.	一些国家，比如智利、哥伦比亚和哥斯达黎加依然还遵循着逐渐增长的经济政策和民主的体制。


But over the past year, allies of Chávez have come to power in countries like Ecuador and Bolivia, and just missed winning in a few others.	但是在过去一年，查维斯的盟友们在像厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚这样的国家掌了权，在其他一些国家也差一点儿就赢得了权力。


In Mexico, Chávez’s admirer Andrés Manuel López Obrador would have seized the presidency, possibly for life, had he convinced just a quarter percent more Mexicans voters to support him.	在墨西哥，查维斯的崇拜者洛佩兹只差0. 25%的选票就本该能赢得总统选举，甚至是终身的。


With almost everyone else in the world successfully pursuing more flexible market-oriented economies, why is Latin America veering dangerously in another direction?	当世界上几乎其他所有地方都成功地追随着更加灵活的市场经济时，为什么拉丁美洲会转向另一个危险的方向呢？


Is it because some voters do not realize that the region has been enjoying greater economic stability than it has in decades?	难道是一些选民没有认识到这个地区现在正经历着过去几十年来都未曾有过的经济上巨大的稳定吗？


Is it because they don’t appreciate having single-digit inflation, down from a regional average of more than 300% 12 years ago?	难道他们不赞赏现在单位数的通货膨胀率，相比该地区过去12年的超过300%的平均通货膨胀率？


Fortunately, at least half the voters in the region appreciate these improvements; otherwise, the situation would be far worse.	幸运的是，这个地区至少有一半的选民是认同这些进展的； 否则情况会更加糟糕。


Nevertheless, a growing schism between left and right has led to a distressing level of policy paralysis.	然而，左派和右派之间越来越大的分裂使得政策处于一个令人不安的停顿状态。


This is nowhere more apparent than in Mexico, the region’s second largest economy after Brazil.	在这一点上，墨西哥的状况是最为明显的。


Despite its enviable location next door to the rich and booming US, Mexico’s growth has ranged from poor to tepid since its economic crisis a decade ago.	这个该地区仅次于巴西的第二大经济体，尽管令人羡慕地紧靠着富有而又繁荣的美国，但是自从十年前的一场经济危机之后，它的经济增长一直就非常糟糕或者是不温不火。


Why hasn’t Mexico benefited more from the 1992 North American Free Trade agreement?	为什么墨西哥没能从1992年的北美自由贸易协定中获益呢？


Part of the problem is the emergence of China, whose ultra-low wages provide tough competition for Mexico, where wages are merely very low.	部分的原因在于中国的崛起，它极低的工资水平给墨西哥带来了严重的威胁，尽管后者的工资已经很低了。


But Mexico’s real obstacle is a political system unable to achieve any consensus on essential economic reforms.	但是墨西哥真正的障碍在于它的政治体制不能在重要的经济改革问题上达成任何的一致意见。


The new president, Felipe Calderón, has spoken of the need to break up Mexico’s monopolies.	新任总统卡尔德隆说过他想要打破墨西哥的垄断行业。


Where will he start, telephones or tortillas?	他会从哪一方面开始呢，电话还是玉米粉圆饼？


There is all too much choice.	有太多的垄断行业需要打破了。


Peasants toil inefficiently on tiny plots of land, in a form of disguised unemployment similar to that seen in rural China.	农民缺乏效率地在小块的土地上忙碌着，这种实际上的失业和中国农村的情况很类似。


The state-owned oil company, which accounts for a major chunk of government revenue, is hugely inefficient, and invests far too little in new equipment and technology.	支撑着政府收入主要来源的国有石油公司效率极低，而对于新装备和技术的投入却相当低。


Crime abounds.	犯罪大量存在。


International comparisons of corruption are not flattering.	腐败的水平恐怕在国际上都无出其右。


Worst of all, the election loser, López Obrador, seems willing to throw the country into turmoil rather than accept the constitutional legitimacy of his defeat.	更加糟糕的是，选举中的落败者洛佩兹，似乎更愿意让整个国家陷入混乱之中，而不愿意接受按照宪法他已经失败的事实。


So how is the US planning to react?	那么美国准备作出怎样的反应呢？


By following through on plans to build a 2,000-mile wall across its southern border.	它计划在它南面的国界线上筑一条2000英里的墙。


Brazil, meanwhile, has exhibited commendable political and macroeconomic stability.	与此同时，巴西在政治和宏观经济上都保持着值得赞赏的稳定。


Yet, if Brazil is to enjoy growth above the modest levels of the past few years, the country badly needs to reform its labor laws, open itself more to foreign trade, and improve the quality of its primary education system.	然而，如果巴西要超越过去几年间在经济上取得的增长水准，就迫切需要改革它的劳工法律，对外贸更加开放，以及提高它的基础教育体系的质量。


With Latin America’s two largest economies in a holding pattern on reform, it is that much more difficult for even the region’s high flyers, such as Chile, to achieve escape velocity into a sustained high growth orbit.	当拉美最大的两个经济体都在改革上处于暂时停滞的状态时，即便是对于这个地区像智利这样经济增长最快的国家来说，要以一个极快的速度进入可持续的高速增长轨道是相当困难的。


Mind you, even the weak growth of the last few years in Latin America marks the region’s best performance since the 1970’s, and incomes are actually catching up slowly to those in the US, Europe, and Japan.	尽管如此，即便是过去几年中拉美经济增长最慢的年份也要比该地区七十年代以来表现最好的年份好得多，收入正在缓慢地向美国、欧洲和日本靠拢。


Nevertheless, Latin America remains the slowest growing of any of the world’s developing regions.	然而，拉丁美洲依然是世界上处于增长的地区中增长速度最慢的地区。


It is not only China and India that are growing faster. Central Europe, Central Asia, and the violence-ridden Middle East are growing faster, too.	不单单是中国和印度保持着高增长，中欧、中亚，甚至是充斥着暴力的中东增长的速度也要快得多。


Even Sub-Saharan Africa, with its wars and famines, has enjoyed more rapid growth in the past few years.	甚至被战争和饥荒所困扰的非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南地区过去几年间也保持着更快的增长速度。


Does the pied piper of Venezuela offer a fairer and better way to grow?	是爱开空头支票的委内瑞拉提供了一条更公正和更好的增长方式吗？


Unfortunately, no.	不幸的是，没有。


Venezuela is merely being pulled along in China’s tailwind thanks to high oil prices.	委内瑞拉只是搭上了中国的顺风车而���益于高油价。


When oil prices collapse, as they will at some point over the next few years, Venezuela’s economy will collapse with them.	一旦油价跌落这一点今后几年内肯定会发生，委内瑞拉的经济就会随之一起跌落。


Over the long run, commodity exporters need to innovate just as much as manufacturers do in order to maintain profitability.	从长远来看，出口商品者需要创立尽量多的制造商以保持利益。


With Venezuelan oil production still running far below its level when Chávez took over, there is little doubt about how this story will end.	当查维斯在委内瑞拉掌权时，它的原油产量比它应该有的水平要低很多，其结局会怎样就不言自明了。


In today’s hyper-competitive global economy, there is no reliable “third way” for countries to avoid continued liberalization and market-oriented reforms.	面对今天竞争极其激烈的全球经济，各个国家只有坚持自由化和以市场为中心的改革才会有出路，没有“第三条路”可走。


Instead, the current installment of Latin American socialism is all too likely to produce a re-run of tragic episodes from the past.	然而，拉美目前有社会主义掌握权力的状况极有可能让这个地区过去的悲剧重演。


In this context, the US’s inexplicable indifference towards the region is both naïve and dangerous.	在这一点上，美国对于这一地区莫名其妙的冷淡既天真又危险。


The incoming Democratic US Congress has signaled that free trade deals with Peru and Columbia need to be “renegotiated.”	即将被民主党所主导的美国国会已经表态说与秘鲁和哥伦比亚的自由贸易协定需要“重新探讨”。


What kind of message does that send to the US’s few remaining allies in the region?	这会给那些美国在这一地区所剩不多的拥护者带去怎样的信息？


If Americans don’t start embracing their friends in Latin America, it may take a generation to undo the damage.	如果美国不赶紧去拥抱它在拉丁美洲的朋友，也许我们需要整整一代人去消除它所造成的损害。


Losing Turkey	迷失的土耳其


OXFORD -- Turkey has long been a haven of geo-political stability.	牛津——土耳其长期以来已经成为地缘政治稳定的避风港。 但是从2003年开始，因为伊拉克战争，土耳其和美国事实上不容置疑的联盟经受了深刻的重新评估，并且因为欧盟的摇摆不定，土耳其几十年来想要加入欧盟的愿望也开始动摇。


But, since 2003, Turkey’s virtually unquestioned alliance with the United States has undergone a profound re-evaluation, due to the Iraq War, and the Turkish consensus on its decades-long EU candidacy has begun to wobble, owing to EU dithering.  Given Turkey’s central role not only in maintaining peace in the volatile Caucasus region but also in promoting peace in the Middle East – the talks now underway between Syria and Israel are, after all, being conducted with Turkish mediation – neglecting Turkey is not only foolish, it is dangerous.	. 鉴于土耳其不仅对维护不稳定的高加索地区的和平起着的主要作用，而且在推进中东和平上起主要作用－毕竟，现在正在进行中的叙利亚以色列会谈就是由土耳其调停的－忽略土耳其不仅是愚蠢的，而且是危险的。


Both the dominant Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its secular rivals remain publicly committed to pursuing EU membership, but in practice doubts have emerged.	不管是占领导地位的公正与发展党(AKP)还是它的世俗竞争者都公开致力于取得欧盟成员资格，但是实际上已经有人对此表示怀疑。


French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s insistence that a referendum should be held on Turkey’s admission suggests that years of painful adjustment to EU norms will never produce the payoff of membership.	法国总统尼克拉斯·萨尔科奇坚持要求对土耳其加入欧盟进行全民公投，这说明多年的为符合欧盟规则而进行的痛苦调整不可能得到取得欧盟成员资格的结果。


The US and the EU are evidently convinced that Turkey has nowhere else to go.	美国和欧盟显然深信土耳其没有其他的选择。


The Turks, they think, will fatalistically accept any snub.	他们认为土耳其人将不得不接受任何的冷落怠慢。


But this cozy assumption overlooks a tectonic shift in Turkey’s geo-political position.	但是这个惬意的假设忽略了土耳其在地缘政治中地位的变化。


Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey looked to the newly-independent central Asian states in a mood of pan-Turkic romanticism.	在苏联垮台后不久，土耳其以一种泛土耳其的浪漫主义情怀开始注意新独立的中亚国家。


These ancestral homelands exercised a hold on Turkish imaginations, but today it is business opportunities, energy resources, and other practical matters rather than ethnic unity that are creating a loose Turkic “commonwealth.”	这些古老的国家对土耳其的想象持保留态度，但是现在商业机会、能源和其他实际问题而不是民族团结创造了一个松散的土耳其“联邦”。


Most striking is Turkey’s renewal of relations with Russia without damaging its ties to the newly independent post-Soviet states.	最惊人的是在没有损害它和其他新独立的原苏联国家关系的情况下，土耳其和俄罗斯的关系得到了恢复。


Turkey’s ancient antagonism toward Russia briefly revived when the Soviet Union imploded.	在苏联解体的时候，土耳其对俄罗斯古老的对立情绪暂时的苏醒了。


In the early 1990’s, some Turkish generals saw the humiliation of Russian troops in Chechnya as part of a long-awaited revenge.	在上个世纪90年代前期，有些土耳其将军将俄罗斯军队在车臣的受辱看作是被期待已久的复仇的一部分。


But, while Russia (and Iran) were once Turkey’s great geo-political rivals, today they are export markets and energy suppliers.	但是，虽然俄罗斯（和伊朗）曾经是土耳其最大的地缘政治竞争对手，但是现在它们已经变成了出口市场和能源供应国。


Energy is the key to Turkey’s new geo-political position.	能源是土耳其新的地缘政治地位的关键。


Its industry and population are growing dynamically, so its energy demands are producing geo-political synergy with Russia and Iran, neither of which can afford to cut the flow of oil and gas without provoking a massive internal crisis.	它的工业和人口强劲增长，因此对能源的需求使它和俄罗斯以及伊朗形成地缘政治协作，这两个国家都不能承担因为切断了石油和天然气供应而可能在国内引起的巨大的危机。


Meanwhile, as Turkey’s attitude toward its neighbors has changed, its governing elite has watched the EU embrace ex-communist countries with far shakier market economies and shorter democratic records.	同时，在土耳其对待它的邻国的态度转变的时候，它的统治精英已经注意到欧盟把那些拥有更弱小市场经济和更短的民主历史的前共产主义国家接纳为会员。


As one Turkish general put it, “If we had joined the Warsaw Pact rather than NATO, we would be in the EU by now.”	就像一个土耳其将军说的那样，“如果我们加入了华约而不是北约，到现在我们可能已经是欧盟成员国了。 ”


Last summer’s re-election of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP, followed by the election of Abdullah Gul as the first president whose wife wears a headscarf, seemed to confirm the fears of anti-Islamic Europeans.	去年夏天总理雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安所在的公正和发展党的改选，紧接着阿卜杜拉·居尔当选为第一位妻子戴着头巾的总统，这好像都强化了反对伊斯兰的欧洲人的担心。


Yet, even if many AKP activists and voters are devout Muslims, Erdogan and Gul remain committed to European integration.	然而，即使许多公正和发展党的激进分子和选民都是虔诚的穆斯林，埃尔多安和居尔仍然致力于加入欧洲的一体化。


Time is running out, however, for them to satisfy their supporters and silence their critics by achieving it.	但是，通过达到这个目标说服其支持者和消除反对者的批评声音的时间正在流逝。


The problem is that the AKP’s victories, together with America’s courting of Erdogan and Gul, have triggered a crisis of direction among Turkey’s once-dominant secular and pro-western elite.	问题是，公正和发展党的胜利和美国对埃尔多安和居尔献的殷勤，已经在土耳其曾经占领导地位的世俗和亲西方精英中引发了方向危机。


Even if the AKP can rely on the allegiance of millions of voters and swarms of new members anxious to join the winning side, the secularists are deeply entrenched in Turkey’s institutions, universities, media, and business.	即使公正和发展党可以依靠成千万的选民和大量想要加入胜者一方的新成员的支持，世俗主义者仍然深深的盘踞在土耳其的公共机构、大学、媒体和商业之中。


But both ordinary AKP supporters and disillusioned secularists are now suspicious of America’s actions and motives in the region.	但是普通的公正和发展党支持者和醒悟的世俗主义者现在都对美国在该地区的行动和动机表示怀疑。


Key military figures’ tacit backing for the Turkish Parliament’s refusal to endorse the March 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq suggests that Turkish nationalism could unite the AKP’s rank-and-file MPs with their otherwise implacable foes in the secular camp.	重要的军方人物对土耳其议会拒绝认可2003年3月美国领导的侵略伊拉克的战争的默示支持，暗示土耳其的民族主义可以将公正和发展党的普通议员和他们在世俗阵营里的在其他方面不可和解的对手团结起来。


If the EU were to snub Turkey openly over membership, or if America were to seem too lax on the Kurdish problem in Northern Iraq, a huge swathe of the two camps could well unite.	如果欧盟在成员资格上公然的冷落土耳其，或者如果美国在对待伊拉克北部库尔德人问题上好像非常漫不经心，两个阵营的巨大合力可以使之很好的团结起来。


Turkey’s links with Israel, for example, have been strained by Israeli investment in Kurdistan.	例如，土耳其和以色列的关系因为以色列在库尔德斯坦的投资而很紧张。


While Shimon Peres made a gesture of reconciliation by choosing Ankara as the setting for the first speech by an Israeli president to the parliament of a predominantly Muslim country, Israel’s concerns about Iran are far more serious than are Turkey’s.	当希蒙·佩雷斯通过选择安卡拉作为一个以色列总统访问这个有重大影响的穆斯林国家议会演讲第一站的方式传达和解的信号时，以色列对伊朗的关注的严重程度远远超过了土耳其对其的关注程度。


Israel’s two most irreconcilable enemies, Iran and Syria, are in fact among the most vocal supporters of Turkey’s hard-line stance towards the Kurds.	以色列的两个最不可调和的敌人，伊朗和叙利亚，事实上是在最公开支持土耳其对库尔德人采取强硬态度的国家中的两个。


America’s conquest of Iraq de-stabilized Turkey’s Western orientation more than the US cares to admit.	. 美国对伊拉克的征服动摇了土耳其亲西方的态度，其程度超过了美国愿意承认的程度。


Most Turks don’t want to see their country excluded from the West, but if the EU spurns them while speeding up entry for weaker candidates, Turkey may come to feel sufficiently strong and embittered to strike out on a new geo-political course.	绝大多数土耳其人不想看到他们的国家被排除在西方之外，但是如果欧盟拒绝他们的同时加快了更弱小国家的加入，土耳其可能会强烈而充满怨恨地感到要开始一个新的地缘政治进程。


Loving America’s Deficits	钟爱美国的赤字


With the weak dollar hanging like the sword of Damocles over the global economy, almost everyone laments America’s spendthrift habits.	随着疲弱的美元像一把达摩克利斯之剑一样高悬在世界经济之上，几乎所有人都在追忆着美国铺张挥霍的习惯。


But did it ever occur to anybody how hard Americans must work to make everyone else look good?	但我们是否想到过美国人需要如何辛劳才能使其他所有人的日子好过呢？


Thanks to America’s gaping trade deficits, the biggest headache of every developing country finance minister nowadays is trying to keep his or her country’s currency from going up too fast against the dollar.	由于美国的巨大贸易逆差，现今所有发展中国家的财政部长的最大一桩心病就是如何让本国的货币与美元的比价不要上升得过快。


When was the last time that happened?	这样的情况上次发生是在什么时候？


Chronic debt-crisis countries from Mexico to Russia to South Korea are all fighting off capital inflows from investors looking for an exit as the dollar collapses.	从墨西哥到俄罗斯到南韩，这些被慢性债务危机困扰的国家都竭力阻击着投机资本的流入。 这些资本来自于那些为在美元崩溃时寻找资本退出机制的投资者。


Ordinarily, as the world comes out of a downturn and global interest rates rise, at least one or two emerging market countries suffers a spectacular blowup.	通常，当世界经济走出低谷，全球利率上升时，至少会有一两个新兴市场国家会遭受沉重的经济打击。


Not likely this time, at least for the next year.	而这次却似乎不竟然，这少不会在未来这一年。


True, policy in some countries has improved markedly.	诚然，一些国家的政策有了显著的改善。


Brazil and Turkey, for example, have each instituted market-friendly policies that have made their economies more flexible and growth more durable.	例如巴西和土耳其就分别出台了市场友好的政策，从而使经济发展更为灵活并更具持续性。


But can the same be said for Mexico, where reform has stalled, or for Russia, where reforms have been reversed?	但同样的成效会产生在改革停滞不前的墨西哥和改革进程被逆转的俄罗斯吗？


America’s reckless deficit spending is making all their currencies look like good investments for 2005.	美国肆无忌惮的赤字开支使得他们的货币似乎成为了2005年的投资之选。


So non-Americans should be more appreciative of America’s deficits.	因此非美国人更应该对美国的赤字心存感激。


Do people think it is easy for a 12-trillion-dollar economy to spend beyond its means year after year just to prop up other countries’ reputations for stability?	让一个有着12万亿美元经济总量的国家仅仅为了支撑其他国家经济稳定的声誉而年复一年，不记后果地支出，是件容易的事吗？


It isn’t.	当然不是。


Going deep into debt when you have that much money to spend takes a lot of hard work.	你有足够的钱花销却还要深陷债务谈何容易。


Start with the American consumer, who consumes everything on earth (helping the United States eat up 25% of world oil production) but saves essentially nothing.	让我们从消耗地球上的一切（帮助美国鲸吞世界石油产量的25%）却从不储蓄的美国消费者谈起。


Thanks to America’s gold-plated financial system, its consumers can buy fancy cars with almost no down payment.	拜美国无与伦比的财政制度所赐，其消费者可以几乎不用首付就购买豪华轿车。


They can borrow more and more each year against the value of their homes, and spend every cent.	他们能够以房产的价值作抵押，每年都贷更多的款，并花光每一分钱。


They can retire earlier and earlier on their smaller and smaller savings.	他们能以自己越来越少的积蓄享受越来越早的退休生活。


It takes nerve and energy to live like that.	实现这样的生活方式需要勇气和能量。


Of course, the US government does its share, too, and more.	当然，对于这样的局面，美国政府更是功不可没。


When President George W. Bush took office in 2001, he was staring at giant budget surpluses as far as the eye could see.	当布什总统在2001年履职之初，仰望着巨大的财政盈余，无所适从。


It was hard work engineering a five-trillion-dollar deterioration in America’s fiscal position.	而让美国的财政状况由此恶化5万亿美元之巨，也真可谓是劳苦功高了。


Cutting taxes was easy, but hiking spending on virtually every program involves a lot of legislation.	减税容易，但要增加在几乎所有项目上的支出却需要通过繁琐的立法程序。


Sure, the decision to invade Iraq was a big help in pushing the country’s finances off a cliff, but that is far from the whole story.	当然，入侵伊拉克的决定是将美国经济推下悬崖的重要一步，但这也只是美国千难万苦的冰山之一角。


So why is the world so ungrateful?	那么为何世界对此却毫不感激呢？


Maybe some Europeans and Japanese are upset that they have consistently earned such poor returns on their US investments.	或许一些欧洲人和日本人对其在美国投资的持续低回报感到沮丧。


Part of the problem has been the sinking dollar, which makes dollar investments look bad when translated into yen or euro.	部分原因是因为美元的不断贬值使美元投资在换算成日元或欧元后确实不如人意。


Part of the blame also lies with bad market timing.	另一部分原因则应归咎于对市场时机把握不准。


Many Europeans bought into the US stock market at its peak in 1999 and 2000, only to find themselves selling at steep discounts after the collapse of 2001.	许多欧洲人在1999和2000年美国股市高位时介入，结果却只能在2001年股市崩溃时割肉清仓。


The same happened to the Japanese in real estate.	日本人在不动产方面也有同样的遭遇。