The situation is further complicated by political calculations, including geostrategic considerations, like those behind Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen, and the rejection of scientific evidence in order to pander to constituents, as in the United States.	情况因为政治算计而进一步复杂化，包括地缘政治考虑（如沙特阿拉伯在也门的幕后行动，以及美国为了迎合选民而拒绝接受科学证据）。


In fact, the withdrawal of US President Donald Trump’s administration from the Paris climate agreement is set to weaken the world’s collective ability to respond to climate change.	事实上，美国总统特朗普政府撤出巴黎气候协定必然会削弱世界面对气候变化的集体应对力。


Cuts in aid funding for women’s health – another Trump administration policy – will not help matters.	妇女健康援助资金的削减——这也是特朗普政府的政策——亦然。


The reality is that confronting the interconnected challenges associated with conflict and climate change demands comprehensive solutions.	现实是，面对与冲突和气候变化有关的联动性挑战，需要全面的解决方案。


Of course, influential countries – including China, France, and Germany – have a role to play in filling the gap left by the Trump administration’s retreat from global leadership.	当然，有影响力的国家——包括中国、法国和德国——能够起到填补特朗普政府放弃全球领导责任所留下的空白的作用。


But the scientific and public-health communities must also step up and rethink how to manage diseases and handle water shortages in conflict environments.	但科学界和公共卫生界也必须站出来反思如何在冲突环境中管理疾病和处理水短缺。


We have already seen what happens in the absence of systems-level solutions.	我们已经看到，缺少系统层面的解决方案会带来什么后果。


Consider the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa: despite ample support programs and infrastructure focused on confronting malaria, countries were not even remotely prepared to handle a new health challenge.	以2014年西非埃博拉疫情为例：尽管在应对疟疾方面，支持项目和基础设施准备得十分充分，但各国对于处理新的卫生挑战几乎束手无策。


When Ebola emerged, the system simply broke down – with overwhelming human and economic consequences.	埃博拉爆发时，系统应声崩溃——并带来严重的人道和经济后果。


That is why the scientific and public-health communities must work urgently to deepen their understanding of the integrated challenges of conflict and climate change, finding and filling gaps in knowledge.	因此，科学界和公共卫生界必须立即行动起来深化对冲突和气候变化的综合挑战的理解，找出并填补知识空白。


The first step is a clear-eyed assessment of the current state of affairs, which will surely produce a harsh reality check regarding the resilience and effectiveness of existing solutions.	第一步是要对当前的局面进行清醒的评估，这肯定要求对现有方案的可靠性和效果进行严格的事实核查。


It is time to recognize the speed at which the combined threat of conflict and climate change is spreading and intensifying, and that addressing it requires new multidisciplinary, evidence-based tools and solutions.	必须认识到，冲突和气候变化的联合威胁正以飞快的速度蔓延和恶化，解决这一威胁需要跨学科的、基于证据的新工具和方案。


It is within our collective capacity to control, limit, and potentially even reverse the effects of the climate-conflict nexus.	控制、限制乃至从根本上扭转气候-冲突联合威胁在我们的集体能力范围之内。


But we have to do the work.	但我们需要行动起来。


The Myth of a Fossil Fuel Phase-Out	淘汰化石燃料的神话


BRUSSELS – How the world uses energy is a hot topic for a warming planet, and fears of pollution and resource strain have produced a virtual arms race of energy-efficiency strategies.	布鲁塞尔——世界如何利用能源已经成为全球变暖的热门话题，而对污染和资源紧张的担忧已经引发了一场虚拟的能效战略军备竞赛。


From the European Union to China, economies are vowing to reduce their energy intensity with the help of technological innovations and legislative changes.	从欧盟到中国，各主要经济体正在发誓通过技术创新和立法改革来降低国内能源强度。


Yet, despite these promises, consumer demand for energy is forecast by the International Energy Agency to rise until at least 2040.	但尽管做出了这样的承诺，国际能源署预测消费者的能源需求至少将在2040年前继续保持上升态势。


With the world’s energy needs growing, how can policymakers guarantee supply?	在世界能源需求不断增长的情况下，决策者如何才能确保能源供应？


To put it bluntly, the world has nothing to worry about when it comes to reserves.	坦率的讲，世界在能源储备方面没有什么值得担心的。


After 40 years of fearing energy shortages, we have entered an era of abundance.	在经历了长达40年对能源短缺的担忧后，我们已经进入了一个能源储备丰富的时期。


We need to guard against false narratives, not scarce resources.	我们真正需要防范的不是资源的稀缺，而是虚假的陈述。


The culprit of this storyline is the Club of Rome, a global think-tank that, in the 1970s, spurred energy anxiety with its absurd prophecies derived from questionable models.	这个故事的罪魁祸首是罗马俱乐部，20世纪70年代，这家全球智库利用其来自可疑模型的荒谬预言引发了对能源的焦虑。


As devoted followers of Thomas Malthus and Paul Ehrlich, the club argued that bad things come from exponential growth, and good things from linear growth.	作为托马斯·马尔萨斯和保罗·埃尔利希的忠实追随者，该俱乐部认为线性增长是件好事，而指数级增长将带来可怕的后果。


This idea fueled the prediction that the world would run out of oil by 2000.	上述理念助推了将在2000年耗尽石油的预测。


By adopting this nonsense dogma, developed countries enabled resource-rich authoritarian leaders like Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Iran, to use their oil reserves as tools to oppose the West – and particularly its support for Israel.	因为相信这种毫无意义的教条，发达国家任凭利比亚卡扎菲和伊朗阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼等资源富集国家的专制领袖将他们手中的石油储量作为反对西方的工具——尤其是反对西方对以色列的支持。


This contributed to the oil shocks of the 1970s, and reinforced the erroneous perception that hydrocarbon reserves were even more limited, and largely confined to the Middle East.	这助推了20世纪70年代的石油危机，同时强化了碳氢化合物储量甚至更为有限的错误观点，而且上述观点谎称这些有限的储量主要集中在中东地区。


Rapid advances in technology, particularly in the field of exploration and the ability to extract hydrocarbons in new places, eventually upended such narratives.	技术领域的飞速进步，特别是在全新地点勘探和开采碳氢化合物的能力，最终将这样的说法连根拔起。


Today’s energy “crisis” stems not from shortages, but from anxiety over pollution.	今天的能源“危机”并非来源于短缺，而是来源于对污染的顾虑。


But this anxiety has not slowed our exploration habits.	但这样的顾虑并没有减缓我们勘探的习惯。


On the contrary, politics and international law, like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, have been adapted to enable discovery.	恰恰相反，像联合国海洋法公约这样的政策和国际法已经得到修改，目的是发现更多的能源储备。


Consider, for example, the Rovuma gas field off the coast of Mozambique.	莫桑比克沿海地区的鲁伍马气田就是实例。


Today, a consortium of international companies from countries including Italy and China is preparing production, and one of Africa’s poorest countries is set to reap huge rewards.	今天，来自意大利和中国等国家的一系列国际企业正在准备投产，非洲最贫困的国家之一注定要获取丰厚的回报。


Similarly, Israel, once thought to be the only place in the Middle East without hydrocarbons, is sitting on 800 billion cubic meters of offshore gas reserves, more than 130 years of the country’s current annual gas consumption.	同样，曾被视为中东唯一一个没有碳氢化合物的国家以色列正坐拥8，000亿立方米的海上天然气储量，按照这个国家目前的年度天然气消费量足够其消耗130多年。


Once a net energy importer, Israel today faces the very real challenge of exporting its gas bonanza.	曾经是能源净进口国的以色列现在却面临着巨量天然气出口的真正挑战。


But perhaps the biggest technology-driven upheaval for global energy markets in recent years has come from shale gas and shale oil production in the United States.	但近年来全球能源市场最大的技术革命或许来自于美国的页岩油和页岩气生产。


At 8.8 million barrels per day, US oil production is now higher than that of Iraq and Iran combined.	美国目前的石油产量高达每天880万桶，比伊拉克和伊朗加起来的总和还要多。


US shale gas is being delivered to Asia, Latin America, and parts of Europe.	美国的页岩气正被运往亚洲、拉美和欧洲部分地区。


These markets were long locked up by Qatar, Russia, and Australia, but now the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, like the oil market, has entered a period of overproduction.	这些市场曾长期被卡塔尔、俄罗斯和澳大利亚锁定，但现在全球液化天然气（LNG）产业像石油市场一样已经步入了一个生产过剩的时期。


Taken together, these developments have contributed to lower energy prices, and reduced the strength of OPEC.	综合来看，上述进展已经促成能源价格下跌，并大大削弱了欧佩克的实力。


Furthermore, because LNG is favored by the transport sector (particularly freight and maritime shippers) for environmental reasons, the ability to use oil as a geopolitical weapon has disappeared.	不仅如此，因为液化天然气出于环境原因而更被运输部门（尤其是货运和海运托运企业）所青睐，利用石油作为地缘政治武器的可能性已经消失。


Iran was so desperate to ramp up its oil exports that it agreed to abandon its nuclear program (strikingly, the Iran nuclear deal mentions the word “oil” 65 times).	伊朗急于增加其石油出口，甚至不惜同意放弃其核计划（惊人的是，伊核协议65次提到了“石油”一词）。


Wind and solar are often presented as alternatives to oil and gas, but they cannot compete with traditional sources for electricity generation.	风能和太阳能往往被视为石油和天然气的替代品，但它们在发电领域无法与传统能源展开竞争。


If they could, there would be no reason for the EU to support renewable energy production through legislation.	如果它们有这个能力，欧盟就没有理由通过立法来支持可再生能源的生产过程。


Moreover, while wind and solar technologies generate electricity, the biggest energy demand comes from heating.	此外，尽管风能和太阳能技术可以发电，但供暖才是最大的能源需求。


In the EU, for example, electricity represents only 22% of final energy demand, while heating and cooling represents 45%; transportation accounts for the remaining 33%.	例如在欧盟，电力只占到终端能源需求的22%，而供暖和制冷则占45%； 余下的33%才是运输。


All of these factors help explain why fossil fuels, which currently meet more than 80% of the world’s energy needs, will remain the backbone of global energy production for the foreseeable future.	所有这些因素都能够解释为什么现在占到世界能源需求超过80%的化石燃料仍将在可以预见的未来成为全球能源生产的支柱产业。


This may not come as welcome news to those pushing for an immediate phase-out of hydrocarbons.	这对那些敦促立即淘汰碳氢化合物的人来说也许并不是好消息。


But perhaps some solace can be gained from the fact that technological innovation will also play a key role in reducing the negative impacts on air and water quality.	但或许令人安慰的是，技术创新仍将在减轻对空气和水质量的负面影响方面发挥关键的作用。


Amid the global conversation about climate change, it is understandable that developed economies would promise significant gains in energy efficiency.	在全球气候变化的对话中，发达经济体承诺大幅提高能效并不难理解。


But while the EU may be committed to reducing CO2 emissions, other signatories of the 2015 Paris climate agreement do not seem as resolute.	但虽然欧盟可能会致力于减少二氧化碳排放，但其他2015年巴黎气候协定的签署国似乎并不那么坚决。


It would not be surprising if most of the signatories actually raised their energy consumption in coming years, turning to fossil fuels because they cannot afford any other option.	如果绝大多数巴黎气候协定的签署国在未来几年实际提升了能源消耗量也并不值得大惊小怪，他们很可能会转向化石燃料，因为他们承担不起其他选择。


Energy policy will remain on the agenda for advanced economies for many years to come.	能源政策在未来许多年仍将进入发达经济体的议事日程。


But as countries work to balance security of supply with environmental goals, they must also commit to getting their facts straight.	但随着各国努力平衡供应安全和环境目标，他们必须竭尽全力看清事实的本来面目。


The Geoengineering Fallacy	地球工程谬论


BERLIN – As the world struggles to rein in emissions of climate-changing gases and limit planetary warming, a new technological silver bullet is gaining supporters.	柏林—在全世界为控制引发气候变化的气体排放、限制地球变暖而焦头烂额之际，一项新的技术憧憬正在赢得越来越多的支持者。


Geoengineering –the large-scale manipulation of the Earth’s natural systems – has been popularized as a means of counteracting the negative effects of climate change.	地球工程——大规模操纵地球自然系统——作为一种抵消气候变化的负面效应的手段而大受欢迎。


Proponents of this science feed the illusion that there is a way to engineer an exit from the climate crisis, meet the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and maintain a consumption-heavy lifestyle.	这门科学的支持者炮制了一个幻觉：可以设法人造一条气候危机的出路，实现2015年巴黎气候协定目标，同时又维持重消费生活方式。


But this solution is not as simple as proponents would have us believe.	但这个解决办法并不像其支持者想让我们相信的那样简单。


Betting on climate engineering – either as a planetary insurance policy or as a last-ditch measure to combat rising temperatures – is not only risky; it also directs attention away from the only solution we know will work: reducing carbon emissions.	把宝押在气候工程上——不论是作为地球保险政策，还是作为遏制气温升高的孤注一掷——不但风险很大，还有可能让人们的注意力从我们所知的唯一能够起作用的方案——减少碳排放上转移。


Each of the engineered technologies being discussed carries dangers and uncertainties.	人们讨讨论的每一项工程技术，都会带来危险和不确定性。


For example, the only way to test the effectiveness of solar radiation management (SRM) on a global scale would be to carry out experiments in the environment – either by spraying particles into the stratosphere, or by artificially modifying clouds.	比如，要想测试太阳能辐射管理（SRM）在全球范围上的效率，就必须在环境中进行实验——要么像大气中喷洒粒子，要么认为改变云貌。


While such tests would be designed to determine whether SRM could reflect enough sunlight to cool the planet, experimentation itself could cause irreversible damage.	这些测试是为了确定SRM是否能够反射足够的阳光，从而让地球冷却下来而设计，但实验本身可能造成不可逆转的伤害。


Current models predict that SRM deployment would alter global precipitation patterns, damage the ozone layer, and undermine the livelihoods of millions of people.	目前的模型预测，SRM的部署将改变全球降水模式，破坏臭氧层，影响到数百万人的生计。


Beyond the ecological risks, critics warn that, once deployed globally, SRM could spawn powerful weapons, giving states, corporations, or individuals the ability to manipulate climate for strategic gain (an idea that not even Hollywood can resist).	除了生态风险，批评者还警告说，SRM一旦被部署，可能成为强大的武器，让国家、公司或个人有能力操纵气候赢得战略利益（这样的概念，连好莱坞也无法拒绝）。


But perhaps the most important criticism is a political one: in a world of challenged multilateralism, how would global ecological interventions be governed?	但也许最重要的批评是政治上的：在多边主义饱受挑战的世界中，如何治理全球性生态干预？


Similar questions surround the other major group of climate engineering technologies under debate – so-called carbon dioxide removal (CDR).	另一类讨论中的气候工程技术——所谓的二氧化碳消除（CDR）也面临类似的问题。


Proponents of these technologies propose removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it underground or in the oceans.	这些技术的支持者提出将二氧化碳从大气中提取出来，储存在地下或海洋中。


Some CDR approaches are already prohibited, owing to concerns about possible environmental consequences.	已有一些CDR方法因为可能引起环境问题而被禁。


For example, fertilization of oceans with carbon-sequestering plankton was banned by the London Protocol on marine pollution in 2008.	比如，2008年海洋污染伦敦协议规定禁止将固碳浮游生物注入海洋。


Parties to that decision worried about the potential damage to marine life.	做出该决定的各方担心这样做可能会对海洋生物造成伤害。


But other CDR approaches are gaining support.	但其他CDR方法赢得了支持。


One of the most discussed ideas aims to integrate biomass with carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques.	一个讨论最热烈的概念旨在将碳捕获和储存（CCS）技术纳入生物量（biomass）中。


Called “bioenergy with CCS,” or BECCS, this method seeks to pair the CO2-absorption capabilities of fast-growing plants with underground CO2 storage methods.	这一方法称为“带CCS的生物能”，或BECCS，寻求将生长快速的植物的二氧化碳吸收能力与地下二氧化碳储存方法相结合。


Proponents argue that BECCS would actually yield “negative” emissions.	支持者认为，BECCS实际可以产生“负”排放。


Yet, as with other engineered solutions, the promises are simply too good to be true.	但是，与其他工程方法一样，它的前景好得不真实。


For example, huge amounts of energy, water, and fertilizer would be required to operate BECCS systems successfully.	比如，成功实施BECCS系统，需要巨量能源、水和肥料。


The effects on land use would likely lead to terrestrial species losses, and increase land competition and displacement of local populations.	其对土地使用的影响可能导致陆生物种损失，加剧土地竞争和本地人口的流离失所。


Some forecasts even suggest that the land clearing and construction activities associated with these projects could lead to a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions, at least in the short term.	一些预测甚至认为，与这些项目相关的土地清理和建设活动可能导致温室气体排放净增，至少在短期是如此。


Then there is the issue of scale.	还有规模问题。


In order for BECCS to achieve emissions limits set by the Paris agreement, between 430 million and 580 million hectares (1.1 billion to 1.4 billion acres) of land would be needed to grow the required vegetation.	要通过BECCS实现巴黎协定所规定排放限制，需要4. 3亿—5.


That is a staggering one third of the world’s arable land.	8亿公顷土地种植所需要的植物。 这一令人咋舌的土地用量相当于全世界适耕土地的三分之一。


Simply put, there are safer – and proven – ways to withdraw CO2 from the atmosphere.	简言之，要想减少二氧化碳在大气中的含量，有更安全——并经过了考验——的方法。


Rather than creating artificial CO2-binding “farms,” governments should focus on protecting already-existing natural ecosystems and allowing degraded ones to recover.	政府不应该去炮制认为的固定二氧化碳的“农场”，而应该专注于保护现有自然生态系统，并让遭到破坏的生态系统恢复。


Rainforests, oceans, and peatlands (such as bogs) have immense CO2 storage capacities and do not require untested technological manipulation.	热带雨林、海洋和泥炭地（如沼泽）拥有巨大的二氧化碳储存力，还不需要进行未经测试的技术操纵。


By pushing unproven technologies as a cure for all climate-changing ills, proponents are suggesting that the world faces an unavoidable choice: geoengineering or disaster.	支持用未经证实的技术来解决一切导致气候变化的问题的人，等于是在暗示世界面临着一个不可避免的选择：地球工程还是灾难。


But this is disingenuous.	但事实并非如此。


Political preferences, not scientific or ecological necessity, explain the appeal of geoengineering.	政治偏好，而不是科学或生态必要性，才是地球工程吸引力的来源。


Unfortunately, current debates about climate engineering are undemocratic and dominated by technocratic worldviews, natural science and engineering perspectives, and vested interests in the fossil-fuel industries.	不幸的是，当前关于气候工程的争论不是民主讨论，而是被技术官僚世界观、自然科学和工程思维，以及化石燃料业的既得利益所主导。


Developing countries, indigenous peoples, and local communities must be given a prominent voice, so that all risks can be fully considered before any geoengineering technology is tested or implemented.	发展中国家、原住民和本地社区必须获得发出声音的权利，从而让所有风险都能够在地球工程技术被测试或实施之前得到充分考虑。


So what conversation should we be having about geoengineering?	那么，关于地球工程，我们应该如何对话？


For starters, we need to rethink the existing governance landscape.	首先，我们需要反思现有治理格局。


In 2010, parties to the United Nations’ Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) agreed to a de facto international moratorium on climate-related geoengineering.	2010年，联合国生物多样性公约（CBD）各方一致同意事实上国际中止与气候相关的地球工程。


But today, with powerful advocates generating so much pressure to bring geoengineering technologies out of the lab, informal bans are no longer sufficient.	但如今，强大的活动集团施加了巨大的压力要让地球工程技术走出实验室，非正式的禁令已经不再足够。


The world urgently needs an honest debate on the research, deployment, and governance of these technologies; the CBD and the London Protocol are essential starting points for these governance discussions.	世界急需关于这些技术的研究、部署和治理的真诚的讨论； CBD和伦敦协议是这些治理讨论的重要起点。


Among the technologies that require the most scrutiny are CDR projects that threaten indigenous lands, food security, and water availability.	需要最重点审查的技术是威胁到本地土地、粮食安全和水源的CDR项目。


Such large-scale technological schemes must be regulated diligently, to ensure that climate-change solutions do not adversely affect sustainable development or human rights.	这些大规模技术机制必须受到严格的监管，以确保气候变化方案不会对可持续发展或人权造成负面影响。


In addition, the outdoor testing and deployment of SRM technologies, because of their potential to weaken human rights, democracy, and international peace, should be banned outright.	此外，出于对SRM技术可能危害人权、民主和国际和平的考虑，应该彻底禁止其野外测试和部署。


This ban should be overseen by a robust and accountable multilateral global governance mechanism.	这一禁令应该由可问责的强力多边全球治理机构监督。


No silver bullet for climate change has yet been found.	到目前为止，我们还没有找到气候变化的特效药。


And while geoengineering technologies remain mostly aspirational, there are proven mitigation options that can and should be implemented vigorously.	尽管地球工程技术雄心勃勃，但我们已经有了经过检验的遏制气候变化的选项，它们能够也应该得到大力落实。


These include scaling up renewable energy, phasing out fossil fuels (including an early retirement of existing fossil infrastructure), wider diffusion of sustainable agroecological agriculture, and decreased energy and resource input into our economy.	这些选项包括扩大可再生能源、退出化石燃料使用（包括现有化石基础设施的提早报废）、可持续生态农业的进一步扩散，以及增加经济的能源和资源投入等。


We cannot afford to gamble with the future of our planet.	地球的未来不容我们拿来作为赌注。


If we engage in a serious discussion about ecologically sustainable and socially just measures to protect the Earth’s climate, there will be no need to roll the dice on geoengineering.	如果我们能认真地讨论生态上可持续、社会上公正的地球气候保护之道，就没有必要押注于地球工程。


The Meaty Side of Climate Change	气候变化的肉制品因素


BERLIN – Last year, three of the world’s largest meat companies – JBS, Cargill, and Tyson Foods – emitted more greenhouse gases than France, and nearly as much as some big oil companies.	柏林—去年，世界三大肉制品公司——JBS、嘉吉（Cargill）和泰森食品（Tyson Foods）——所排放的温室气体量比法国还要高，与一些大石油公司等量齐观。


And yet, while energy giants like Exxon and Shell have drawn fire for their role in fueling climate change, the corporate meat and dairy industries have largely avoided scrutiny.	然而，在埃克森和壳牌等能源巨头因为刺激气候变化而饱受口诛笔伐的同时，肉奶业公司几乎无人关注。


If we are to avert environmental disaster, this double standard must change.	如果我们想要避免环境灾难，这一双重标准就必须改变。


To bring attention to this issue, the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, GRAIN, and Germany’s Heinrich Böll Foundation recently teamed up to study the “supersized climate footprint” of the global livestock trade.	为了激起人们对此问题的关注，农业和贸易政策研究所（Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy）、GRAIN和德国海因里希·玻尔基金会（Heinrich Böll Foundation）最近组织了一项关于全球牲畜贸易的“超大气候足迹”的研究。


What we found was shocking.	我们的发现令人震惊。


In 2016, the world’s 20 largest meat and dairy companies emitted more greenhouse gases than Germany.	2016年，全球20家最大的肉奶制品公司排放的温室气体量比德国还要高。


If these companies were a country, they would be the world’s seventh-largest emitter.	如果把这些公司看成一个国家，它将是世界第七大排放国。


Obviously, mitigating climate change will require tackling emissions from the meat and dairy industries.	显然，遏制气候变化需要限制肉奶业的排放。


The question is how.	问题是如何实现。


Around the world, meat and dairy companies have become politically powerful entities.	放眼全球，肉奶制品公司已经成为政治强势实体。


The recent corruption-related arrests of two JBS executives, the brothers Joesley and Wesley Batista, pulled back the curtain on corruption in the industry.	最近，两位JBS高管——乔斯利和韦斯利·巴蒂斯塔（Joesley and Wesley Batista）兄弟因腐败问题被捕，揭开了行业腐败的面纱。


JBS is the largest meat processor in the world, earning nearly $20 billion more in 2016 than its closest rival, Tyson Foods.	JBS是世界第一大肉处理商，2016年利润比差距最小的竞争对手泰森食品公司多出近200亿美元。


But JBS achieved its position with assistance from the Brazilian Development Bank, and apparently, by bribing more than 1,800 politicians.	但JBS赢得这一地位受到了巴西开发银行的支持，显然，其所贿赂的1,800多位政客也提供了便利。


It is no wonder, then, that greenhouse-gas emissions are low on the company’s list of priorities.	因此，毫不奇怪，温室气体排放绝非该公司的重点关注问题。


In 2016, JBS, Tyson and Cargill emitted 484 million tons of climate-changing gases, 46 million tons more than BP, the British energy giant.	2016年，JBS和、泰森和嘉吉排放了4. 84亿吨气候变化气体，比英国能源巨头英国石油公司多4,600万吨。


Meat and dairy industry insiders push hard for pro-production policies, often at the expense of environmental and public health.	肉奶业大力推动有利于其生产的政策，常常不惜为此牺牲环境和公共健康。


From seeking to block reductions in nitrous oxide and methane emissions, to circumventing obligations to reduce air, water, and soil pollution, they have managed to increase profits while dumping pollution costs on the public.	它们阻挠一氧化二氮和甲烷的减排计划，规避减少空气、水和土壤污染的义务。 它们赚取万贯利润，却让公众来承担污染的成本。


One consequence, among many, is that livestock production now accounts for nearly 15% of global greenhouse-gas emissions.	一个后果是牧业生产目前占了全球温室气体排放量的近15%。


That is a bigger share than the world’s entire transportation sector.	这一比例要比整个交通业总量还要大。


Moreover, much of the growth in meat and dairy production in the coming decades is expected to come from the industrial model.	此外，在未来十年中，肉奶产量的增长中预计将主要来自工业模式。


If this growth conforms to the pace projected by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, our ability to keep temperatures from rising to apocalyptic levels will be severely undermined.	如果这一增长趋势与联合国粮农组织的预测吻合的话，我们制止气温升高到灾难水平的能力就会遭到严重破坏。


At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP23) in Bonn, Germany, last month, several UN agencies were directed, for the first time ever, to cooperate on issues related to agriculture, including livestock management.	在上个月在德国波恩举行的联合国气候变化会议（COP23）上，一些联合国机构史上第一次开始关注在农业（包括牲口管理）相关问题上的合作。


This move is welcome for many reasons, but especially because it will begin to expose the conflicts of interest that are endemic in the global agribusiness trade.	从诸多方面看，这一动作是非常积极的，但一个突出的原因是这将把全球农商（agribusiness）贸易中长期存在的利益冲突曝光于天下。


To skirt climate responsibility, the meat and dairy industries have long argued that expanding production is necessary for food security.	为了回避气候责任，肉奶行业长期以来一直在宣传，为了食品安全必须扩大产量。


Corporate firms, they insist, can produce meat or milk more efficiently than a pastoralist in the Horn of Africa or a small-scale producer in India.	它们说，与非洲之角的牧民和印度的小规模生产商相比，公司制企业能够以更高的效率生产肉和奶制品。


Unfortunately, current climate policies do not refute this narrative, and some even encourage increased production and intensification.	不幸的是，当前气候政策没有反驳这一叙事，有的甚至鼓励增加产量和密集度。


Rather than setting targets for the reduction of total industry-related emissions, many current policies create incentives for firms to squeeze more milk from each dairy cow and bring beef cattle to slaughter faster.	目前的不少政策非但没有制定行业相关排放总量的减排计划，反而激励企业在每头奶牛身上榨取更多的奶，让肉牛能更快地走上屠宰线。


This necessitates equating animals to machinery that can be tweaked to produce more with less through technological fixes, and ignoring all of this model other negative effects.	这就需要将动物等同于能共通过技术手段进行改造，实现更小投入产生更多产出的机器，完全忽视了这一模式的其他副作用。


California’s experience is instructive.	加利福尼亚州的经验很有说明性。


Pursuing one of the world’s first efforts to regulate agricultural methane, the state government has set ambitious targets to reduce emissions in cattle processing.	州政府实施了世界上第一个监管农业甲烷排放的政策，制定了雄心勃勃的牛肉处理活动减排目标。


But California is currently addressing the issue by financing programs that support mega-dairies, rather than small, sustainable operators.	但加州目前是通过支持大型奶制品生产商，而非小型可持续生产商的融资计划解决问题。


Such “solutions” have only worsened the industry’s already-poor record on worker and animal welfare, and exacerbated adverse environmental and health-related effects.	这样的“解决办法”只能恶化该行业已然相当拙劣的工人和动物福利记录，并加剧负面的环境和卫生相关影响。


Solutions do exist.	解决办法确实是存在的。


For starters, governments could redirect public money from factory farming and large-scale agribusiness to smaller, ecologically focused family farms.	首先，政府可以将公共资金从工厂化农场和大规模农商转移到规模较小、更注重生态的家庭农场。


Governments could also use procurement policies to help build markets for local products and encourage cleaner, more vibrant farm economies.	政府还可以用采购政策来帮助建立地方产品市场和鼓励更清洁、更有活力的农场经济。


Many cities around the world are already basing their energy choices on a desire to tackle climate change.	放眼全球，许多城市已经开始为了解决气候变化而制定能源选择。


Similar criteria could shape municipalities’ food policies, too.	类似的标准也可以影响大都市的食品政策。


For example, higher investment in farm-to-hospital and farm-to-school programs would ensure healthier diets for residents, strengthen local economies, and reduce the climate impact of the meat and dairy industries.	比如，加大农转医（farm-to-hospital）和农转学（farm-to-school）计划的投资能够确保居民形成更加健康的饮食习惯，加强地方经济，减少肉奶行业的气候影响。


Dairy and meat giants have operated with climate impunity for far too long.	在太长的一段时间里，肉奶业巨头都没有因为经营活动影响到气候而受到惩罚。


If we are to halt global temperature spikes and avert an ecological crisis, consumers and governments must do more to create, support, and strengthen environmentally conscious producers.	如果我们想要阻止全球气温上升、阻止气候危机，消费者和政府就必须采取更多行动建立、支持和增强有环境良心的生产商。


That would be good for our health – and for the health of our planet.	这对于我们——以及地球——的健康都是一件好事。


Weathering the Violence of Climate Change	战胜气候变化的暴力


SANTA MONICA – With India experiencing its worst drought in 140 years, Indian farmers have taken to the streets.	圣莫妮卡—印度正在经历140年以来的最严重干旱，印度农民纷纷上街游行。


At a protest in Madhya Pradesh this summer, police opened fire on farmers demanding debt relief and better crop prices, killing five.	在今年夏天中央邦的一次示威中，警察朝要求豁免债务和更好的农作物价格的农民开枪，导致五人死亡。


In Tamil Nadu, angry growers have held similar protests, and lit candles in remembrance of those killed.	在泰米尔纳德邦，愤怒的农户也举行了类似的示威，点燃蜡烛纪念被杀者。


And at one rally in New Delhi, farmers carried human skulls, which they say belonged to farmers who have committed suicide following devastating crop losses over the past six months.	而在新德里的一次集会中，农民带来了人体骷髅，据说是因为过去六个月干旱导致歉收而自杀的农民的遗骸。


According to a recent study by Tamma A. Carleton of the University of California, Berkeley, suicides among Indian farmers have increased with the temperature, such that an increase of 1º Celsius above the average temperature on a given day is associated with approximately 70 additional suicides, on average.	根据加州大学伯克利分校的塔玛·卡尔利顿（Tamma A. Carleton）的最新研究，印度农民自杀数量随温度的上升而增加，在给定的日子中，温度较平均水平每上升1℃，平均而言会导致自杀事件增加大约70起。


Beyond exposing failed farming policies, this year’s drought-fueled turmoil also underscores the threat that climate change poses not just to India, but to all countries.	今年因干旱而导致的动乱不但暴露了失败的农业政策，也突显出气候变化对印度乃至所有国家所造成的威胁。


As global temperatures rise and droughts become more common, political agitation, social unrest, and even violence will likely follow.	随着全球气温上升、干旱越来越普遍，政治骚动、社会动荡乃至暴力都有可能水涨船高。


In 2008, when severe weather cut into the world’s grain supply and drove up food prices, countries ranging from Morocco to Indonesia experienced social and political upheavals.	2008年，恶劣的天气导致全球谷物供给不足，粮食价格上扬，从摩洛哥到印尼的许多国家都爆发了社会和政治剧变。


More recently, food insecurity has been used as a weapon in the wars in Yemen and Syria.	此后，粮食不安全在也门和叙利亚战争中被当成武器使用。


According to the Center for Climate and Security, failure to address such “climate-driven risks” could lead to increased fighting over water, food, energy, and land, particularly in already unstable regions.	据气候与安全中心（Center for Climate and Security，CCS）的研究，不能解决这些“气候驱动的风险”可能导致对水、粮食、能源和土地的争夺日趋激烈，特别是在已经陷入动荡的地区。


CCS identifies 12 “epicenters” where climate change might ignite or exacerbate conflicts that could engulf large populations, and spill across national borders.	CCS列出了12个“震中”，在这些地方，气候变化可能引起或加剧可能波及大量人口甚至蔓延到国境之外的冲突。


It is no coincidence that conflicts proliferate alongside rising temperatures.	冲突随着气温的升高而频仍，这不是巧合。


A 2013 study estimates that interpersonal violence rises by 4%, and intergroup conflicts by 14%, “for each one standard deviation change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall.”	一份2013年的研究测算，“气候向升温或极端降雨变化一个标准差，”人际间暴力增加将4%，群体间冲突将增加了14%。


Moreover, psychological studies have shown that when people are subjected to uncomfortably hot temperatures, they show increased levels of aggression.	此外，心理学研究表明，当人们遭遇热得难受的高温时，会表现出更高的侵略性。


And new research is finding that what is true for the individual also holds true for populations.	新研究发现，对个体来说成立的现象，对群体同样成立。


In Sub-Saharan Africa, researchers have found a strong correlation between three decades of rising temperatures and outbreaks of civil war.	在撒哈拉以南非洲，研究者发现，三十年来不断上升的气温，与内战的爆发之间存在强相关性。


If warming trends continue, civil wars and other conflicts will become more common in Africa, the South China Sea, the Arctic, Central America, and elsewhere.	如果变暖趋势继续的话，非洲、南海、北极、中美洲和其他地区的内战和其他冲突将变得更加平常。


Avoiding such outcomes will require renewed support for multilateral treaties such as the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which has been weakened by the withdrawal of the United States.	避免这一结果需要加强对2015年巴黎气候协定等多边条约的支持，而因为美国的退出，巴黎协定受到了削弱。


But it will also require increased engagement by countries, cities, and industries on three key areas: resource management, disaster mitigation, and migration.	避免这一结果还需要各个国家、城市和行业在三大领域中加大参与度：资源管理、减灾和移民。


In largely agricultural societies, farm productivity affects the entire economy.	在以农业为主的社会，农场生产率影响着整个经济。


As we’ve seen in the Horn of Africa and India this year, changes in temperature and rainfall can reduce crop yields, and thus rural incomes.	今年的非洲之角和印度证明，气温和降雨的变化可能影响收成，从而影响农业收入。


Under such conditions, and in the absence of other economic opportunities, communities may resort to violence as they compete for food and scarce resources.	在这样的环境下，再加上其他经济机会的缺失，社区将诉诸暴力来争夺粮食和稀缺资源。


International aid organizations, working with state and federal governments, should go beyond addressing the immediate causes of poverty to also develop long-term strategies for helping agricultural communities survive bad harvests.	国际援助组织应该在州和联邦政府的帮助下，不但要解决贫困的近因，也要制定长期战略帮助农业社会安然度过坏收成。


Such strategies should focus on arable-land management and water conservation, among other areas.	这些战略应该注重适耕土地管理和水源保护。


Additionally, new strategies are needed to coordinate disaster-relief efforts.	此外，新战略还需要协调减灾措施。


As the climate changes, weather-related calamities such as floods, hurricanes, landslides, and typhoons will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, undermining individual livelihoods and the broader economy.	随着气候的变化，与天气有关的灾害，比如洪水、飓风、塌方和台风等，频率、烈度和持续时间都会增加，影响到个人的生计和整体经济。


Governments must work together to mitigate these risks, and to respond forcefully to disasters when they happen.	政府必须合作减轻这些风险，当灾难发生时要强力响应。


Otherwise, the fallout will disproportionately hurt poor and vulnerable communities, perpetuating the cycle of poverty and violence.	否则，最贫穷和最脆弱的社区将承受最大的伤害，贫困和暴力的循环也将永久化。


Finally, we need better policies for managing human migration, much of it related to severe weather and droughts.	最后，我们需要更好的政策管理移民。 大量移民与极端天气和干旱有关。


In 2015, the number of international migrants reached a record high of 244 million.	2015年，国际移民数量达到了创纪录的2. 44亿。


As the climate shifts, entire regions could become uninhabitable, and many more people will be uprooted.	随着气候的变化，有些地区将变得完全不适合人类居住，从而更多的人将被迫迁徙。


Parts of the Middle East, for example, could become too hot for humans by the end of this century; and heavily populated cities such as New Delhi could experience temperatures over 95º Fahrenheit (35º C) up to 200 days out of the year.	比如，到本世纪末，中东很多地方可能会变得太热而无法居住； 而新德里等重污染城市可能会经历全年200多天气温超过35℃的日子。


The International Organization for Migration fears that as more people flee the heat, the concentration of humanity into smaller spaces will have an unprecedented impact on local “coping capacity.”	国际移民组织担心，随着更多的人逃离热浪，人类向更小的区域集中可能会对本地“应对能力”造成前所未有的冲击。


Scientists agree that climate change poses a grave danger to the planet.	科学家们都同意，气候变化是地球面临的一个重大威胁。


But for some reason, politicians and government officials have not connected the dots between a changing climate and human conflicts.	但出于某些原因，政客和政府官员迟迟没有将气候变化和人类冲突联系起来。


Among the many threats associated with climate change, deteriorating global security may be the most frightening of all.	在于气候变化有关的诸多威胁中，全球安全的恶化可能是最可怕的。


It is bad enough to see farmers carrying skulls through the streets of India.	目睹农民携带人体骷髅在印度的大街上游行已经足够糟糕了。


But if we do not get serious about climate-driven security risks, we could see far worse.	但如果我们不认真对待气候驱动的安全风险，有可能还会看到更加糟糕的情景。


Is Global Warming Making Us Hungrier?	全球变暖让我们更加饥饿吗？


PRAGUE – For more than a decade, annual data showed global hunger to be on the decline.	布拉格—十多年来，年度数据表明全球饥饿情况日益下降。


But that has changed: According to the latest data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) hunger affected 815 million people in 2016, 38 million more than 2015, and malnutrition is threatening millions.	但情况有变：据联合国粮农组织最新数据，2016年有8. 15亿人受饥饿影响，比2015年多了3,800万人，而营养不良原则在威胁着成千上万人。


Research from my think tank, Copenhagen Consensus, has long helped to focus attention and resources on the most effective responses to malnutrition, both globally and in countries like Haiti and Bangladesh.	我的智库根本哈根共识（Copenhagen Consensus）长期以来一直帮助人们关注和集中资源以最有效地应对全球和国家（如海地和孟加拉国）层面的营养不良问题。


Unfortunately, there are worrying signs that the global response may be headed in the wrong direction.	不幸的是，令人担忧的信号表明，全球应对措施可能对准了错误的方向。


The FAO blames the rise in hunger on a proliferation of violent conflicts and “climate-related shocks,” which means specific, extreme events like floods and droughts.	粮农组织将饥饿情况的恶化归咎于暴力冲突的大爆发和“气候相关冲击”，即洪灾和旱灾等具体的极端事件。


But in the FAO’s press release, “climate-related shocks” becomes “climate change.”	但在粮农组织的通讯稿中，“气候相关冲击”改成了“气候变化”。


The report itself links the two without citing evidence, but the FAO’s communiqué goes further, declaring starkly, “World hunger again on the rise, driven by conflict and climate change.”	报告本身在没有援引证据的情况下将两者联系起来，但粮农组织的公告更进一步，尖锐地宣称“受冲突和气候变化推动，世界饥饿问题再次恶化”。


It may seem like a tiny step to go from blaming “climate-related shocks” to blaming “climate change.”	这似乎是在指责“气候相关冲击”的基础上更进了一小步，指责“气候变化”。


Both terms relate to the weather.	这两个用词都指向天气。


But that little difference means a lot, especially when it comes to the most important question: how do we help feed the world better?	但差之毫厘，谬以千里，特别是对于最重要的问题——如何更好地养活全世界？


Jumping the gun and blaming climate change for today’s crises attracts attention, but it makes us focus on the costliest and least effective responses.	草率地将今天的危机归咎于气候变化能吸引眼球，但也让我们的注意力都集中在了成本最高而效率最低的应对方式上。


The best evidence comes from the United Nations’ climate change panel, the IPCC, which has clearly shown that there has been no overall increase in droughts.	最好的例子莫过于联合国气候变化委员会（IPCC），该委员会明确表示，总体干旱程度并未呈现上扬。


While some parts of the world are experiencing more and worse droughts, others are experiencing fewer and lighter droughts.	局部地区正在经历更多更严重的干旱，但也有地区干旱变得更少更轻。


A comprehensive study in the journal Nature demonstrates that, since 1982, incidents of all categories of drought, from “abnormally dry” to “exceptional drought,” have decreased slightly.	《自然》杂志的一篇全面研究表明，自1982年以来，各种类型的干旱——从“异常干燥”到“反常干旱”——的发生率略有下降。


On flooding, the IPCC is even blunter: It has “low confidence” at a global level whether climate change has caused more or less flooding.	在洪水方面，IPCC更是直言不讳。 它说，从全球层面看，“没有信心”认为气候变化引起洪水变多还是变少。


What the IPCC tells us is that by the end of the century, it is likely that worse droughts will affect some parts of the world.	IPCC告诉我们，到本世纪末，世界一些局部地区可能会受到更严重的干旱的影响。


And it predicts – albeit with low confidence – that there could be more floods in some places.	它预测——但对此没有什么信心——一些地区可能会遭受更多洪水。


Relying on climate policies to fight hunger is doomed.	依靠气候政策消除饥饿注定要失败。


Any realistic carbon cuts will be expensive and have virtually no impact on climate by the end of the century.	现实的减排计划无不代价高昂，并且到本世纪末不会对气候造成什么影响。


The Paris climate agreement, even if fully implemented up to 2030, would achieve just 1% of the cuts needed to keep temperature from rising more than 2oC, according to the UN.	即便在2030年之前能够充分实施巴黎气候协定，也只能实现将升温幅度限制在2℃以内所需减排量的1%（据联合国数据）。


And it would cost $1 trillion a year or more – an incredibly expensive way to make no meaningful difference to a potential increase in flooding and droughts at the end of the century.	而其成本是每年1万亿美元或以上——这是一个昂贵得令人咋舌的方法，而不会在本世纪末之前造成潜在洪水和干旱发生率的有意义的变化。


In fact, well-intentioned policies to combat global warming could very well be exacerbatinghunger.	事实上，初衷良好的遏制全球变暖的政策，很有可能会加剧饥饿情况。


Rich countries have embraced biofuels – energy derived from plants – to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.	富裕国家采用生物燃料——从植物中提取能量——来减少对化石燃料的依赖。


But the climate benefit is negligible: according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development, deforestation, fertilizer, and fossil fuels used in producing biofuels offset about 90% of the “saved” carbon dioxide.	但其气候效益可以忽略不计，据国际可持续发展研究所（International Institute for Sustainable Development）的数据，用于生产生物燃料的森林采伐、化肥和化石燃料，将抵消90%的“节省”的二氧化碳。


In 2013, European biofuels used enough land to feed 100 million people, and the United States’ program even more.	2013年，欧洲生物燃料所消耗的土地足以养活1亿人口，美国的生物燃料计划消耗的土地还要更多。


Biofuel subsidies contributed to rising food prices, and their swift growth was reined in only when models showed that up to another 135 million people could starve by 2020.	生物燃料补贴助长了粮食价格上涨，而直到模型表明2020年可能新增高达1. 35亿人陷入饥饿时，这些补贴的迅速膨胀才得到遏制。


But that means that the hunger of around 30 million people today can likely be attributed to these bad policies.	但这意味着3,000万在今天挨饿的人，原因要归结为这些坏政策。


Moreover, climate policies divert resources from measures that directly reduce hunger.	此外，气候政策让资源被分散，无法集中于直接减少饥饿的措施。


Our priorities seem skewed when climate policies promising a miniscule temperature impact will cost $1 trillion a year, while the World Food Program’s budget is 169 times lower, at $5.9 billion.	气候政策需要以每年1万亿美元的代价才能让气温下降一丁点，与此同时，世界粮食计划的预算规模只有这个数字的169分之一，即59亿美元，这说明我们的重点出现了偏差。


There are effective ways to produce more food.	有效提高粮食产量的办法是有的。


One of the best, as Copenhagen Consensus research has shown, is to get serious about investing in research and development to boost agricultural productivity.	哥本哈根共识的研究指出，最好的办法之一是认真地投入研发，提高农业生产率。


Through irrigation, fertilizer, pesticides, and plant breeding, the Green Revolution increased world grain production by an astonishing 250% between 1950 and 1984, raising the calorie intake of the world’s poorest people and averting severe famines.	通过灌溉、化肥、除虫和育种，绿色革命在1950—1984年间让谷物产量提高了惊人的250%，世界最贫困人口的卡路里摄入量得到了提高，严重饥荒得到了遏制。


We need to build on this progress.	我们需要在这样的进步上再接再厉。


Investing an extra $88 billion in agricultural R&D over the next 32 years would increase yields by an additional 0.4 percentage points every year, which could save 79 million people from hunger and prevent five million cases of child malnourishment.	在未来32年中新增880亿美元农业研发能够让产量每年提高0. 4个百分点，这足以让7,900万人摆脱饥饿，并避免五百万儿童陷入营养不良。


This would be worth nearly $3 trillion in social good, implying an enormous return of $34 for every dollar spent.	这相当于近3万亿美元的社会福利，每一美元投入能够产生高达34美元的巨大回报。


By the end of the century, the extra increase in agricultural productivity would be far greater than the damage to agricultural productivity suggested by even the worst-case scenarios of the effects of global warming.	到本世纪末，农业生产率的额外提高将大大超过全球变暖的最糟糕情形所造成的农业生产率损失。


And there would be additional benefits: the World Bank has found that productivity growth in agriculture can be up to four times more effective in reducing poverty than productivity growth in other sectors.	还有额外的收益：世界银行发现，农业生产率的提高在减少贫困方面的效果要比其他部门高出最多四倍。


We are at a turning point.	我们正站在转折点上。


After achieving dramatic gains against hunger and famine, we run the risk of backsliding, owing to poorly considered choices.	继在消灭饥饿和饥荒的征程中取得重大进步之后，我们有可能因为考虑不周的选择而遭遇退步。


The stakes are far too high for us to pick the wrong policies.	选择错误的政策的代价实在太高了。


When Climate Leaders Protect Dirty Investments	当气候领导者保护肮脏投资时


GENEVA – Solutions to the climate crisis are often associated with big conferences, and the next two weeks will no doubt bring many “answers.”	日内瓦—气候危机的解决方案常常诞生于大会中，接下来的两周毫无疑问将产生很多“答案”。


Some 20,000 delegates have now descended on Bonn, Germany, for the latest round of United Nations climate change talks.	大约20,000名代表已经来到德国波恩，参加新一轮联合国气候变化谈判。


The talks in Bonn should focus on the implementation of the Paris climate agreement.	波恩的谈判应该聚焦于实施巴黎气候协定。


And the path forward is clear.	应该怎么做是显而易见的。


The only way to keep the rise in global temperatures within the limit set in Paris – “well below 2°C” higher than pre-industrial levels – is to shift capital away from fossil fuels and toward zero-carbon projects.	要将全球气温控制在巴黎所指定的范围内——较前工业化水平升温“显著低于2℃”——唯一的办法是让资本远离化石燃料，涌向零碳项目。


To do that, we must change how global energy investments are governed.	而要想实现这一点，就必须改变全球能源投资管理。


At the moment, the very governments leading the fight against climate change continue to support and protect investment in fossil-fuel exploration, extraction, and transportation.	目前，领导气候变化斗争的各国政府，都仍然在支持和保护化石燃料勘探、采掘和运输的项目投资。


Rather than investing in efficient housing, zero-carbon mobility, renewable energy, and better land-use systems, these governments say one thing but still do another.	这些政府没有投资于高效率的住房、零碳交通、可再生能源和更好的土地使用体系，它们说一套做一套。


According to the most recent World Energy Investment report from the International Energy Agency, global expenditure in the oil and gas sector totaled $649 billion in 2016.	根据国际能源署的最新《世界能源投资》（World Energy Investment）报告，2016年全球石油和天然气行业总支出高达6,490亿美元。


That was more than double the $297 billion invested in renewable electricity generation, even though achieving the Paris agreement’s target implies leaving at least three quarters of known fossil-fuel reserves in the ground.	这比可再生发电的投资量2,970亿美元高出一倍多，虽然想要实现巴黎协定的目标，就必须让至少四分之三的已知化石燃料储量留在地下。


As these numbers suggest, institutional inertia and entrenched industry interests continue to stand in the way of shifting investment into sustainable energy.	这些数字表明，制度惰性和根深蒂固的行业利益仍是投资流向可再生能源道路上的拦路石。


Much of the problem can be traced to bilateral investment treaties and investment rules embedded within broader trade pacts, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Energy Charter Treaty, and the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).	很多问题可以追溯到双边投资条约和范围更广的贸易契约所规定的投资规则上，如北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）、能源宪章条约（Energy Charter Treaty）和欧盟-加拿大全面经贸协定（CETA）。


Because these treaties were designed to shield foreign investors from expropriation, they include investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms that allow investors to seek compensation from governments, via international arbitration tribunals, if policy changes affect their business.	这些条约是为了阻止外国投资者被征没而制定，因此包括了投资者-国家纠纷解决（ISDS）机制，允许投资者在政策变化影响到业务的情况下，通过国际仲裁法庭向政府索赔。


This has handcuffed governments seeking to limit fossil-fuel extraction.	这让政府寻求限制化石燃料采掘的行动投鼠忌器。


Compensation from ISDS cases can be staggering.	ISDS案例的赔偿令人咋舌。


In 2012, an American investor filed a lawsuit against the Quebec government’s decision to deny a permit for hydraulic fracturing under the Saint Lawrence River.	2012年，美国投资商向起诉魁北克政府拒绝许可在圣劳伦斯河底进行液压致裂法作业。


Arguing that the denial was “arbitrary, capricious, and illegal” under NAFTA, the Delaware-based energy firm sought $250 million in damages.	这家位于特拉华州的能源企业说，根据NAFTA，魁北克政府的禁令是“专断、任性、非法”的，因此索取2. 5亿美元损失赔偿。


In January 2016, the TransCanada energy company used NAFTA to sue the United States, claiming $15 billion in losses after President Barack Obama denied a permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline.	2016年，TransCanada能源公司援引NAFTA起诉美国索赔150亿美元损失，因为奥巴马总统拒绝批准Keystone XL输油管道。


(The company suspended its suit after President Donald Trump approved the project in January 2017).	（2017年1月，特朗普总统批准了该项目，该公司随之撤诉。 ）


And in July 2017, Quebec agreed to pay nearly $50 million in compensation to companies after canceling oil and gas exploration contracts on Anticosti Island in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.	2017年7月，魁北克在取消了圣劳伦斯湾安蒂科斯蒂岛的油气勘探合同后，同意向相关公司赔偿近5,000万美元。


These and other payments are in addition to the hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies that continue to flow to the fossil-fuel industry.	除了此类赔偿之外，化石燃料行业还能源源不断地获得数千亿美元的补贴。


Big payouts do more than drain public coffers; the mere threat of them discourages governments from pursuing more ambitious climate policies, owing to fear that carbon-dependent industries could challenge them in international tribunals.	巨额的偿付不仅仅耗尽了公帑； 仅仅是存这一威胁，就让政府无法追求进取的气候政策，因为它们担心碳依赖行业在国际仲裁法庭上起诉它们。


Fortunately, this state of affairs is not set in stone.	幸运的是，这一情况不是一成不变的。


Many governments now see reform of the investment regime not just as a possibility, but as a necessity.	许多政府目前正着眼于改革投资机制——不仅作为一个可行项，而且要作为一个必须项。


Last month, the UN Conference on Trade and Development convened a high-level meeting in Geneva, with the goal of developing options for comprehensive reform of the investment regime, including the renegotiation or termination of some 3,000 outdated treaties.	上个月，联合国贸易和发展会议在日内瓦召开了一次高级别会议，旨在制定全面投资机制改革的选项，包括重新谈判和结束约3,000条过时的条约。


Governments should start by overhauling or exiting the Energy Charter Treaty, the world’s only energy-specific investment pact.	政府首先应该修订或退出现有《能源宪章条约》（ETC）。 ETC是全世界唯一的专门的能源投资契约。


The ECT’s investment protections and lack of climate provisions are no longer appropriate.	其投资保护条款和缺少气候条款的情况早已不合时宜。


Since its inception, the ECT has served as the basis for more than 100 claims by energy firms against host countries, with some challenging national environmental policies, such as the nuclear phase-out in Germany.	自实施以来，ECT被针对东道国的能源企业援引过100多次，其中一些是对国家能源政策，如德国逐步退出核电的战略的挑战。


Russia and Italy have already withdrawn from the ECT; other countries should do the same or commit to renegotiating it.	俄罗斯和意大利已经退出了ECT； 其他国家也应该这样做，或致力于重新谈判ECT。


Moreover, countries should put climate concerns at the center of their trade and investment negotiations, such as by carving out fossil-fuel projects from investment clauses.	此外，各国应该将气候问题作为贸易和投资谈判的核心，比如将化石燃料项目剔出投资条款。


That is essentially what France recently proposed, when ecology minister Nicolas Hulot announced his country’s intention to enact a “climate veto” to CETA.	这正是法国最近所提出的动议，其生态部长尼古拉·胡洛（Nicolas Hulot）宣布，法国准备对CETA投“气候否决票”。


Hulot said France would ratify the treaty only if it contained assurances that its climate commitments could not be challenged before arbitration tribunals.	胡洛说，法国不会批准该条约，除非它保证仲裁法庭不干涉气候承诺。


Fossil-fuel projects could also be exempted from investment protection in new environmental treaties, such as the Global Pact for the Environment presented by French President Emmanuel Macron to the UN General Assembly in September.	新环境条约的投资保护条款也应该剔除化石燃料项目，如法国总统马克龙在9月的联合国大会上所提出的《全球环境公约》（Global Pact for the Environment）。


Rebalancing the global investment regime is only the first step toward a zero-carbon economy.	实现全球投资机制再平衡只是通往零碳经济的第一步。


To shift capital from fossil-fuel heavy initiatives to green energy projects, countries will need new legal and policy frameworks at the regional, national, and international levels.	要让资本从重化石燃料项目流出，流向绿色能源项目，各国需要地区、国家和国际层面的新的法律和政策框架。


These agreements should promote and facilitate zero-carbon investments.	这些协定应该促进和便利零碳投资。


Big meetings like the one getting underway this week and the Paris Climate Summit next month can kick-start these conversations.	本周正在举行的会议和相隔约的巴黎气候峰会这样的大会能够为这些谈判提供起点。


(The authors wish to thank Ivetta Gerasimchuk and Martin Dietrich Brauch of the IISD for their help with this commentary.)	（作者特别鸣谢IISD的Ivetta Gerasimchuk和Martin Dietrich Brauch为本评论所提供的帮助。 ）


Closing the Education Gender Gap	弥补教育领域的性别差距


WASHINGTON, DC – Completing primary school in Niger was never a certainty for Aishetu Mahmoudu Hama, given all the obstacles that stood in her way.	华盛顿——因为在前进道路上面临着各种各样的障碍，在尼日尔读完小学对艾什图·哈马来说从来不是一件确定的事。


“It was hard to study,” she recalls.	“学习很难，”她后来回忆。


“We sat on the ground – sometimes on a mat, sometimes just in the dirt.”	“我们坐在地上——有时候垫一块垫子，有时候就直接坐在土里。 ”


But Aishetu persevered, and she is now a 23-year-old university student.	但艾什图坚持了下来，她现在已经是一名23岁的大学生了。


Aishetu knows that without school, her life chances would likely be confined to herding, farming, getting married, and having a lot of children.	艾什图知道，如果不接受教育，她生命中的机会很可能仅限于放牧、耕种、结婚和生许多孩子。


There simply would be no other opportunities for her to pursue.	她根本不可能有其他的机会。


Like the female teachers who inspired her to learn, Aishetu wants to be a role model to younger girls and her own siblings.	像鼓励她学习的女教师一样，艾什图希望成为年轻女性和自家兄弟姐妹的榜样。


She hopes that her story will motivate them to complete their education, too.	她希望她的故事能激励他们完成自己的学业。


On this International Day of the Girl, Aishetu stands as proof of the difference that education can make for girls and the people around them.	在这样一个国际女童日，艾什图证明教育能为女童和她们身边的人带来改变。


But the struggles that Aishetu overcame also remind us that education remains beyond reach for far too many girls.	但艾什图克服的困难也提醒我们仍然有太多女孩无法接受教育。


Consider one appalling statistic: The number of girls not attending school, despite having fallen by 40% since 2000, still stands at 130 million.	这里有一个令人震惊的数据：无法上学的女童人数尽管自2000年以来已经下降了40%，但仍然保持在1. 3亿。


This helps to explain why women struggle more than men to find meaningful, well-paying work, and why the share of women in the global workforce persistently lags behind that of men.	这有助于解释为什么女性要付出比男性更多的努力才能找到有意义的报酬优厚的工作，也解释了为什么女性在全球劳动力中所占的比重持续低于男性。


Making matters worse, even where girls’ educational attainment has grown rapidly, commensurate improvements for women in the workforce have remained elusive.	更糟的是，即使在那些女童受教育程度迅速提高的地方，女性仍然很难在就业领域实现同等的突破。


According to a 2015 study by the World Economic Forum, “while more women than men are enrolling at university in 97 countries, women make up the majority of skilled workers in only 68 countries and the majority of leaders in only four.”	世界经济论坛2015年的一项研究显示，“虽然97个国家的女性大学入学率高于男性，但仅有68个国家女性技工占据多数，而仅有四个国家主要是女性领袖。 ”


These gender gaps represent a major generational challenge for large and small businesses alike.	大小企业同样面临着上述性别差距带来的重大代际挑战。


Worldwide, companies are already struggling to find enough qualified workers for their increasingly automated work processes.	在世界范围内，企业已经苦于无法找到适应日益自动化工作流程的足够数量的合格工作者。


The International Commission for Financing Global Education Opportunity reported last year that nearly 40% of employers are having difficulties recruiting workers with the right skills.	全球教育机会融资国际委员会去年报告近40%的雇用企业很难招到拥有合适技能的工人。


Businesses investing in lower-income countries also need their workers to be healthy.	投资于低收入国家的企业也需要员工保持良好的健康状况。


This is more likely when mothers are educated: they and their families tend to be healthier than in the case of less educated mothers.	如果母亲受过教育会增加这种可能性：她们和她们的家人往往比那些受教育程度较低的母亲及其家人更加健康。


In fact, research shows that if all childbearing-age women were to complete secondary education, the number of children dying before age five would drop by about 350,000 each year.	事实上， 研究表明如果所有育龄妇女都能接受中学教育，那么五岁以前死亡的儿童人数每年将下降约350,000人。


The businesses investing in developing- and emerging-market countries that are home to most out-of-school girls thus have an interest in helping girls get the education they deserve.	投资于大多数失学女童所在的发展中和新兴市场国家的企业因此有意愿帮助女童接受应有的教育。


If educational outcomes improve, we will likely see far more women pursuing the higher-level technical training that today’s workplaces are demanding.	如果教育成果有所改善，我们很可能看到更多女性接受今天工作场合所要求的高水平技术培训。


To put 130 million additional girls into school, we will have to overcome an array of stubborn barriers.	为确保1. 3亿女童入学，我们需要克服一系列顽固的障碍。


In many countries, educating girls is not considered important, owing to expectations that they will work exclusively at home or on the family farm.	在许多国家，女童教育被认为并不重要，因为绝大多数人认为她们只适合在家工作，或者在家庭农场里帮忙。


Early marriage, sexual assault, a lack of sanitary facilities for menstruating girls, and humanitarian crises are just some of the factors that make completing an education more difficult for girls than for boys.	早婚、性侵犯、经期卫生条件恶劣和人道主义危机仅仅是导致女童教育比男童更加困难的某些因素。


And in remote areas in particular, school fees and arduous commutes pose further challenges.	而且尤其在边远地区，学费和艰苦的通勤条件也构成了进一步的挑战。


Even if these cultural, political, and geographic hurdles can be cleared, wealthier countries will need to commit far more resources to educating girls in developing economies than they have in the past.	即使能够克服这些文化、政治和地理障碍，富裕国家也需要为教育发展中国家女童提供比过去多得多的资源。


Shockingly, the share of donor countries’ overseas development aid that is allocated for education has shrunk over the last six years, and is now smaller than it was in 2010.	令人震惊的是，用于教育领域的捐助国海外发展援助份额在过去六年中一直在缩减，目前从数额上看已经小于2010年。


Donor countries urgently need to reverse that trend.	捐助国迫切需要扭转这一趋势。


The Global Partnership for Education has been one of the leading catalysts in educating girls over the past decade and a half.	全球教育合作机构一直是过去15年来推动女童教育的主要催化剂。


Thanks to GPE funding, an additional 38 million girls in developing countries were enrolled in primary school from 2002 to 2014.	因为全球教育合作机构的资助，从2002到2014年间发展中国家接受小学教育的女童增加了3，800万人。


To build on that progress, GPE will hold a financing conference, co-hosted by the Senegalese and French governments, on February 8, 2018, in Dakar.	为了巩固这一进展，全球教育合作机构将于2018年2月8日在达喀尔召开由塞内加尔和法国政府共同主办的融资会议。


We are appealing to donors around the world to help us reach $2 billion in annual funds by 2020.	我们呼吁世界各地的捐助者帮我们达到截止2020年每年筹集20亿美元的目的。


With sufficient funding, GPE can support the education needs of 870 million children in more than 80 countries.	有了足够的资金，全球教育合作机构就可以为超过80个国家8. 7亿的儿童教育需求提供支持。


And it can help developing countries build education systems that will give girls like Aishetu the chance to realize their potential.	它还可以帮助发展中国家建立教育系统，赋予艾什图这样的女孩发挥自己潜力的机遇。


When girls and women are empowered through education, they can and do transform the world for the better.	在教育的助力下，女童和妇女可以而且能够更好地改变世界。


Investment in their potential is a bet that can’t lose.	在投资发挥她们的潜力方面，我们输不起。


A Long Way from Comey to Watergate	从科米到水门事件路还很长


PRINCETON – President Donald J. Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey is unprecedented, as is much of what Trump has undertaken as president.	普林斯顿——唐纳德·特朗普总统解雇联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米的举动前所未有，特朗普担任总统后大部分所作所为也是一样。


Despite similarities with President Richard M. Nixon’s infamous “Saturday Night Massacre” 44 years ago, during the Watergate scandal, the political situations are utterly different.	尽管与44年前理查德·尼克松总统在水门丑闻期间臭名昭著的“星期六之夜大屠杀”有很多相似之处，但两者的政治局势却完全不同。


In October 1973, Nixon, waiting until a weekend, ordered the dismissal of a newly appointed special prosecutor, Archibald Cox, who had issued a subpoena demanding that Nixon hand over secretly recorded – and, as would become clear, highly damning – White House tapes.	1973年10月，尼克松直到一个周末才下令解雇一位新任命的特别检察官阿奇博尔德·考克斯，后者之前刚刚发出传票，要求尼克松交出秘密录制的——而且显而易见极具毁灭性的——白宫录像。


Nixon’s defiance was direct, and the result was disastrous.	尼克松的反抗直截了当，而且结果是灾难性的。


Attorney General Elliot Richardson and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus resigned in protest rather than carry out the president’s order.	司法部长艾略特·理查德森和副部长威廉·拉克尔夏斯辞职抗议，而不是执行总统的命令。


A federal judge ruled the firing of Cox illegal.	一名联邦法官裁定解雇考克斯非法。


Public opinion polls showed, for the first time, a plurality of Americans favoring Nixon’s impeachment.	民意调查则首次显示多数美国人赞成弹劾尼克松。


It was the beginning of the end.	于是终场序幕开始。


Congressmen introduced impeachment resolutions.	国会议员提出弹劾决议。


Nixon was forced to appoint a new special prosecutor.	尼克松被迫任命一名新的特别检察官。


The drama thickened for another ten months, until the Supreme Court unanimously ordered Nixon to surrender the tapes.	这出闹剧又上演了十个月，直到最高法院一致命令尼克松交出录像带。


A few days after that, Nixon resigned rather than face certain impeachment and removal from office.	几天后，为避免面临这场毫无疑义的弹劾和免职，尼克松辞职了。


By contrast, unless the stars realign, Trump’s firing of Comey may mark the beginning of nothing, or at least of nothing bad for the president.	相比之下，除非天上的星星重新列队，特朗普解雇科米也许不会标志着任何事情的开始，至少不是什么对总统有害的事。


Trump, like Nixon, may well be guilty of grave impeachable offenses – even graver offenses than Nixon’s.	特朗普像尼克松一样很可能犯有严重到应当接受弹劾的罪行——甚至有可能比尼克松的罪行更加严重。


Trump, like Nixon, may have feared that unless he fired the person in charge of investigating him, some terrible revelation would be forthcoming.	特朗普像尼克松一样可能担心除非解雇负责调查他的人，否则某些可怕的真相将会遭到揭露。


But, even if all this is so, Trump, unlike Nixon, may very well get away with it.	但即使这一切都是事实，特朗普和尼克松的不同之处是他很可能会逍遥法外。


The two events differ in many ways, including their timing.	这两起事件有许多不同，包括在它们发生的时机上。


By the time Nixon fired Cox, the Watergate affair had been building for far longer than the allegations about Trump and Russia have, so nerves had been rubbed raw.	到尼克松解雇考克斯时，水门事件发酵的时间已经远长于有关特朗普和俄罗斯的指控，因此神经已经处于高度的紧张状态。


The main differences, though, are political.	但最重要的差异是在政治领域。


In Nixon’s time, there were solid adversarial Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, and there were also some Republicans, especially in the Senate, who put concerns about the Constitution ahead of concerns for their party.	在尼克松的时代，坚定的反对派民主党牢牢占据着国会参众两院的多数，还有一些共和党人，尤其是在参议院，对宪法的关切胜过对其自身党派。


The Senate appointed a special select committee, headed by Democrat Sam Ervin and Republican Howard Baker, which heard testimony and gathered official evidence that led to the indictment of 40 administration officials and the conviction of several top White House aides, as well as to Nixon’s resignation.	参议院任命了一个特别委员会，由民主党人山姆·艾尔文和共和党人霍华德·贝克领导，负责听取证词和收集官方证据，正是他们的工作最终导致40名行政官员被起诉和几位白宫高级助理被定罪，以及最后尼克松的辞职下台。


Today’s Republican congressional majorities, however, have seemed singularly devoted to slowing and narrowing any serious inquiry into the thoroughly substantiated reports of Russian efforts to throw the 2016 election to Trump.	而今天共和党的多数议员似乎单方面致力于延缓和缩窄对俄罗斯全力支持特朗普赢得2016年大选进行任何严肃的调查活动，相关报告已经完全拥有过硬的证据支持。


Although there has been talk, even from some Republicans, about appointing a select committee or a special prosecutor to look into the allegations about the Russians and the Trump campaign, the resistance has been extraordinary compared to 1973.	虽然也有人谈论，其中甚至不乏某些共和党人，任命一个专门委员会或一位特别检察官来调查有关俄罗斯和特朗普竞选的指控，但与1973年相比，这一调查却遭遇了非同寻常的阻力


Based on the events of the last week, Republicans evidently would rather rail against insider leaks and, yes, Hillary Clinton’s email server than inquire into the White House’s insouciance about former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn’s alarming links to Russia and Turkey.	上周发生的事件显示，共和党人显然宁愿指责内部人泄密，还有希拉里·克林顿的电邮服务器事件也不愿调查白宫故意不去查证前国家安全顾问迈克尔·弗林与俄罗斯和土耳其之间的惊人关系。


Without a significant shift, the congressional investigations will continue to remain confined to the standing House and Senate committees, where they will likely remain understaffed and under-motivated.	如果不出现大的转变，国会调查仍将局限在众议院和参议院常设委员会，他们既没有足够的人力也没有足够的动机去调查这件事。


Then there is the press.	然后还有媒体。


In 1973, dogged reporting by Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward of the Washington Post kept the Watergate story alive, after most news outlets had dropped it.	1973年，在多数新闻媒体都放弃报道这一事件后，《华盛顿邮报》卡尔·伯恩斯坦和鲍勃·伍德沃德的顽强报道维系了水门事件的活跃度。


Once their reporting gained traction, the rest of the press picked up the scandal and kept up the pressure on the Nixon White House.	一旦报道得到了外界认可，其余媒体也都开始关注这一丑闻并继续维持对以尼克松为首的白宫的压力。


Today, Trump can count on the fervent support of propaganda operations that Nixon could only have prayed for, including the unabashedly polemical Fox News and Breitbart News, as well as the countless bloggers (and, for that matter, Russian-controlled cyberbots) pumping out pro-Trump propaganda.	今天，特朗普可以指望尼克松只能暗暗祈祷的宣传攻势的强烈支持，包括毫无廉耻地挑起论战的福克斯新闻和布莱巴特新闻，还有无数的微博博主（以及俄国控制的网络机器人）制造出大量亲特朗普的宣传攻势。


As I write this, one Fox commentator after another is parroting the White House’s absurd claim that Trump fired Comey because of the terrible things the FBI director did to Clinton during the campaign.	在我写这篇文章时，一个又一个福克斯评论员像鹦鹉学舌般地传播白宫的荒谬说法，称特朗普解雇科米是因为这位联邦调查局局长在克林顿竞选期间可怕的所作所为。


One almost expects the network’s biggest star, Sean Hannity, to start leading on-air anti-Comey chants of “Lock Him Up!”	几乎可以预料福克斯新闻网最大的明星肖恩·汉尼斯开始在直播中煽动“把他关起来”的反对科米的呼声。


The effect on anyone who recalls Trump’s cheerleading for Comey last October – followed by the red-hatted crowds’ ritualistic baying to jail crooked Hillary – is psychedelic.	目前局势在那些记得去年10月特朗普曾为科米喝彩，而后由戴着红帽子的支持者宗教仪式般地叫嚣要监禁狡诈的希拉里的人看来是颇具迷幻色彩的。


But fans of Fox News usually believe what the channel reports.	但福克斯新闻网的粉丝总是相信这家电视台的报道。


And while Nixon had Fox News' future Svengali, a young Roger Ailes, behind him, Fox and the rest were still two decades away.	尽管尼克松曾经拥有福克斯新闻未来的斯文加利式人物——年轻的罗杰·艾尔斯的支持，但却远没有完全赢得福克斯和其他新闻媒体。


It is possible, of course, that Trump’s firing of Comey will push some Republicans to decide that enough is enough and follow Baker’s example.	当然，特朗普解雇科米有可能促使某些共和党人受够了特朗普的欺骗并开始仿效贝克的范例。


The early responses have been mixed: although Republican Senators Jeff Flake, John McCain, and Ben Sasse have expressed varying degrees of disappointment, normally independent-minded Senators Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham have backed Trump’s decision.	早期的反应良莠不齐：尽管共和党参议员杰夫·弗莱克（Jeff Flake）、约翰·麦凯恩（John McCain）和本·萨斯（Ben Sasse）都表示了不同程度的失望，但通常思想独立的参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）和林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）都支持特朗普的决定。


There is always a chance, in such a volatile climate, that deals will be broken, witnesses will flip, and facts will emerge that are every bit as incriminating as the evidence that felled Nixon.	但在这样动荡的环境中，总是存在打破交易、证人翻供、像导致尼克松垮台一样能证明特朗普有罪的证据一点一滴浮出水面的可能性。


International developments might also awaken some Republicans to the magnitude of the Russian offensive on Western democracies, an offensive which, in the wake of the French elections, feels like an undeclared war.	国际事态的发展也可能唤醒一些共和党人，使他们认识到俄国对西方民主国家的攻势，这样的攻势在法国选举刚刚开始时就像是一场未经宣布的战争。


For the moment, though, there is no reason to see Trump’s firing of Comey as a re-run of Nixon’s “Saturday Night Massacre,” or any other event in American political history.	但是到目前为止，没有理由将特朗普解雇科米看作“星期六之夜大屠杀”或美国政治史上其他政治事件的重演。


The president may be acting as if he has something terrible to hide, just as Nixon did, but that won’t be enough under the circumstances to cause the exposure of whatever it may be.	美国总统的所作所为可能就像尼克松那样疑似要掩盖真相，但在目前局面下这还不足以曝光他所掩盖的事实。


Ironically, Trump, the self-declared outsider who lost the popular vote and squeaked into office by winning the Electoral College, finds himself, for the moment, in some ways more protected than the party man Nixon, who won the 1972 election by overwhelming popular as well as electoral margins.	颇具讽刺意味的是，特朗普这位输掉民众投票、并通过赢得选举团挤进白宫的自封的局外人总统现在却发现自己在某种程度上得到了比党内人士尼克松更好的保护，后者1972年当选总统时获得了压倒多数的民众和选举团支持。


It may be unsettling to acknowledge, but history is not repeating itself, no matter how tragic or farcical things might appear.	承认这一点可能令人不安，但无论局势看似多么悲惨和滑稽，历史都不会简单重复。


Trump may yet fall, but a lot will have to change.	特朗普还有下台的可能，但需要改变的东西仍有很多。


Building a Gender-Inclusive Workplace	建设性别包容的工作环境


NEW YORK – The wave of high-profile sexual harassment cases that began with revelations from Hollywood is having a profound impact on far less glamorous work environments.	纽约——从好莱坞曝出的一波高调性骚扰案浪潮正在深刻影响着不那么有诱惑力的工作。


Just as major film studios have been forced to take action against abuse, a similar revolution – powered by the #MeToo movement of women speaking out – is sweeping workplaces everywhere.	就像大型电影制片厂被迫采取行动打击虐待行为一样，由站出来揭露真相的女性#我也是运动所推动的一场类似革命——正在席卷所有地方的工作场所。


It has been terrible to learn of the abuse that women suffered at the hands of powerful men like Harvey Weinstein, Matt Lauer, and Al Franken.	了解女性在哈维·温斯坦、马特·劳尔和阿尔·弗兰肯等有权有势的男性手中所遭受的苦难是非常可怕的。


But it is also deeply encouraging to see the corporate world take this issue seriously, by attempting to create a “shared future” for their female employees.	但亲眼目睹企业界认真对待这一事件，并试图为女性员工创造某种“共同的未来”又非常令人鼓舞。


The collective response to the #MeToo movement could mark a turning point in the way employers think about sexual harassment and other issues involving gender – like pay and power.	人们对#我也是运动的集体响应可能标志着雇主思考性骚扰和其他涉性问题——如薪酬和权力——等方式的转折。


But the workplace revolution is far from over.	但职场革命还远未结束。


New strategies are needed to encourage healthy interactions among employees.	制定全新战略以鼓励员工进行健康互动是必须的。


When handled properly, gender equality promotes business output and productivity, whereas sexual discrimination, if ignored, can destroy an office culture – and so much more.	如果能够得到妥善处理，性别平等可以促进商业领域的产量和生产效率，而性别歧视如果遭到忽视，则可能彻底摧毁办公室文化——以及更多。


Companies have traditionally taken a box-ticking approach to addressing harassment, using written policies and trainings in a feeble bid to encourage respect.	企业传统上一直采用打勾的方式来应对骚扰，利用书面政策和培训来徒劳地试图鼓励尊重。


But this top-down approach has proven ineffective, as scandals at Uber and other tech firms have demonstrated.	但就像优步和其他技术企业丑闻已经证明的那样，这种自上而下的方式已经被事实证明是无效的。


If workplace abuse is to be curtailed, business leaders and C-Suite executives need a fresh approach.	如果真想阻止工作场合所曝出的虐待，企业领袖和高管人员需要采用全新的方法。


The first priority is to achieve gender balance at the top.	实现顶层的两性平等是首要任务。


Diversity in leadership encourages employee cooperation and leads to healthier organizations.	领导层的多样性能够鼓励员工合作，并提升组织的健康度。


This is not a new idea; a 2016 study published in the Harvard Business Review found that companies with more high-level female executives generate higher profits.	这算不上是什么新想法； 《哈佛商业评论》2016年所刊发的一份研究结果表明拥有更多高层女性管理者的企业能够赚取的利润也更多。


Other studies have shown that women perform better under stress, often making smarter decisions.	其他研究结果表明女性在压力下往往能够表现得更好，并做出更明智的决策。


But, despite the obvious benefits that women bring, they remain under-represented in senior leadership positions at companies around the world.	但尽管女性能够带来如此明显的好处，她们在世界各地的高层领导岗位却仍然严重代表不足。


Change is needed in the digital workplace as well.	数字工作环境也同样需要变革。


Predators may lurk around the water cooler, but they are also active in online communities, chat rooms, and forums.	捕食者可能隐藏在冷饮水箱的周围，但他们也同样活跃在在线社区、聊天室和论坛中。


Concerns raised by the #MeToo movement spread virally on social media within hours, and similar anger could engulf an organization at any time.	#我也是运动所提出的疑虑仅短短数小时就在社交媒体上疯传，而类似的愤怒可能随时随地吞没某个组织。


Companies must therefore place a premium on promoting online decorum, and take seriously any comments and concerns expressed by their employees.	企业因此必须高度重视推广在线礼仪，并严肃对待员工所表达的任何评论和担忧。


Most companies already monitor social media for reputational risks and customer satisfaction; they should do the same to protect their staff.	多数企业已经在对社交媒体上的声誉风险和客户满意度进行监测； 他们也应当这样做来保护自己的员工。


Finally, companies must be responsive to the concerns of their youngest employees, who will inherit the office of the future.	最后，企业必须对最年轻员工的忧虑作出积极的回应，他们才是办公室未来的继承者。


With more millennials entering the workforce and demanding greater equality, the youngest employees already have a stronger voice at work than previous generations.	随着越来越多的千禧一代进入职场并要求更多平等，最年轻员工已经比他们的前辈声音更强。


A recent Boston Consulting Group study found that young male employees are often more open-minded than their superiors on issues like family leave and diversity, suggesting that true leadership on gender equality may actually come from a company’s youngest staff members.	波士顿咨询公司最近的一项研究发现，年轻的男性员工在家庭假和多样性等问题上往往比他们的上级更加开放，这表明性别平等问题的真正领导力可能来自企业最年轻的员工。


Moreover, researchers at Rutgers University have shown that more than 50% of millennials would consider a pay cut if it meant working for a company that shared their values, while the Society for Human Resource Management notes that 94% of young workers want to use their skills to benefit a good cause.	不仅如此，罗格斯大学的研究人员已经证明超过50%的千禧一代如果能为有共同价值观的企业工作甚至可以考虑削减薪酬，而人力资源管理协会则强调94%的青年员工希望利用他们的技能为一项伟大的事业造福。


Rather than resist these trends, companies should look to harness the benevolence of their youngest talent.	企业不应抵制这样的趋势，而应当就如何利用年轻人的仁爱之心进行思考。


To build a more inclusive workplace, management must craft narratives that support the changes their employees are demanding.	为建设更具包容性的工作环境，管理层必须迅速制定能支持员工所要求变化的陈述和规则。


Most important, employees need role models.	最重要的是，员工们需要榜样。


The willingness of celebrities like Salma Hayek, Rose McGowan, and Reese Witherspoon to share their stories of sexual harassment empowered women from many walks of life to speak out, too.	像萨尔玛·海耶克、罗斯·麦高恩和瑞茜·威瑟斯彭这样的明星愿意分享她们遭性侵的故事鼓励了来自各行各业的女性分享自己的遭遇。


Changing workplace culture will demand similarly strong leadership.	改变职场文化需要类似的强有力的领导。


That shift is on the horizon, and I am inspired by the women and men who are calling on future generations to work together more equitably.	这样的改变即将到来，而那些呼吁子孙后代更公平合作的男性和女性则令我深受鼓舞。


It is easy to feel overwhelmed by the complexity of these issues, but if managers and employees can commit to building purpose-driven and inclusive work environments, change is inevitable.	这些问题的复杂性很容易令人感到不知所措，但如果管理者和员工能致力于建设以目标为导向的包容性工作环境，那么将会不可避免地推动改革。


The women of Hollywood may have initiated what has become a global call for equality at work, but the workplace revolution is no less significant for those of us who walk on less colorful carpets.	好莱坞女性或许已经开启了呼吁工作场所平等的全球事业，但对于我们这些在不那么有诱惑力的环境中工作的女性来说，工作环境革命也同样重要。


The Complexity of Inequality	不平等性的复杂性


MUNICH – Since 2013, when Thomas Piketty published his much-discussed study of the distribution of income and wealth, inequality has been at the forefront of public debate in most advanced economies, blamed for everything from slow growth and stagnating productivity to the rise of populism and the Brexit vote.	慕尼黑—2013年，托马斯·皮凯蒂（Thomas Piketty）出版了他广受热议的关于收入和财富分配的研究，此后，不平等性成为大部分发达经济体公共争论的前沿话题，从增长缓慢和生产率停滞到民粹主义崛起和英国退欧投票，一切问题都被归咎于此。


But inequality remains poorly defined, its effects highly variable, and its causes hotly debated.	但不平等性的定义仍然不明确，其效果也大相径庭，其根源更是众说纷纭。


Even the most basic question – how much inequality is too much – is virtually impossible to answer.	即便是最基本的问题——多大的不平等性算是过度——也几乎不可能得到回答。


There is no “natural rate of inequality” characterizing an economy in equilibrium, a level at which policymakers can aim.	不存在一个经济体处于均衡状态时的“自然不平等率”可供决策者努力实现。


Instead, countries’ rates of inequality are measured against one another – a narrow approach that ignores everything from broader economic trends to differences in the impact of wealth inequality on populations in different social environments.	相反，各国的不平等率是相对的——这是一个狭隘的方法，忽略了从总体经济趋势到不同社会环境中财富不平等性对人口的影响的不同的各种因素。


At a time when everyone seems to be complaining about inequality, wealth is, at the global level, more broadly distributed than ever.	当所有人都在抱怨不平等性时，从全球水平看，财富的分配要比以往更加广泛。


In the last 16 years alone, the number of people who qualify for inclusion in the global middle class – at today’s level, people with net financial assets of €7,000-42,000 ($7,400-$44,600) – has more than doubled, to over one billion, or about 20% of the world population.	光是过去16年，跻身全球中产阶级——今天的标准是拥有7,000—42,000欧元金融资产——的人数就增长了一倍多，达到了十亿以上或世界人口的20%。


And it is not just the middle class that is growing.	增长的不仅仅是中产阶级。


At the end of last year, around 540 million people around the world could count themselves among the global wealthy, with net assets above €42,000.	截至去年年底，全世界大约5. 4亿人算得上全球富人，净资产超过42,000欧元。


That is some 100 million, or 25%, more than in 2000.	这一数字比2000年增加了1亿，或25%。


The key to this progress has been the success of the emerging economies, especially China.	取得这一进步的关键是新兴经济体的成功，特别是中国。


And, indeed, many of those who have joined the high-wealth group are not from the traditional “rich” countries; on the contrary, the United States, Japan, and Western Europe now have just 66% of the world’s high-wealth households, compared with over 90% in 2000.	事实上，许多跻身高财富群体的人并非来自传统“富裕”国家； 相反，美国、日本和西欧如今只占世界高财富家庭的66%，而2000年时占90%以上。


On the national level, inequality is rising, but only in some places.	在国家层面，不平等性正在上升，但只是局部地区。


In the emerging economies, the share of wealth owned by the middle class is increasing, indicating a drop in wealth inequality.	在新兴经济体，中产阶级拥有的财富比例在增加，这表明财富不平等性有所下降。


It is primarily in the industrialized world that inequality is on the rise, with the share of wealth held by the top 10% growing the most.	不平等性上升主要发生在工业化国家，顶层10%拥有财富的比例增长得最快。


This discrepancy may be explained partly by the fact that the global financial crisis was most painful for the advanced countries, especially in Europe.	这一差异可以用一个事实部分地解释：全球金融危机主要影响了发达国家，特别是欧洲。


But the expansionary monetary policies that advanced-country central banks pursued after the crisis made a bad situation worse.	但危机后发达国家央行所采取扩张性货币政策让情况雪上加霜。


Those policies pushed up prices of assets – especially bonds and equities – that were held largely by wealthy households.	这些政策推高了主要由富裕家庭持有的资产价格——特别是债券和股票。


At the same time, they hurt middle-class savers, who typically rely on duller savings instruments like bank deposits.	与此同时，这些政策伤害了中产阶级储蓄者，他们通常依赖银行存款等收益较低的储蓄工具。


With zero or, later, negative interest rates, those savers lost out.	在零利率及后来的负利率环境下，这些储蓄者蒙受了损失。


Though median households are generally benefiting from lower borrowing costs, wealthier households are benefiting much more, thanks in part to savings on mortgage loans, which are highest relative to income for the upper middle class.	尽管中位家庭总体而言从借贷成本下降中获益，但富裕家庭获得的好处要大得多，这部分要归因于按揭贷款成本下降，这笔支出占中上阶级收入的比重最大。


But the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy extends far beyond today’s wealth and income effects.	但极端宽松的货币政策的影响远不止于今天的财富和收入效应。


With advanced-country populations aging rapidly, saving for old age is more important than ever.	随着发达国家人口的迅速老化，为晚年储蓄比变得比以往更加重要。


With very low interest rates reducing the rate of accumulation of pension assets, all but the wealthiest households will probably have to boost savings and/or reduce consumption, now and in the future.	极低的利率降低了养老资产的积累速度，如今和未来，除了最富裕家庭，其他家庭都可能被迫提高储蓄并/或降低消费。


The decline in lifetime spending will ultimately have a negative impact on growth and potentially generate social fault lines for the coming generations.	生命周期支出的下降最终将给增长造成消极影响，并有可能制造子孙后代的社会断层线。


Complicating the inequality narrative further are differences across individual economies, including among those that, technically, have similar levels of inequality. Consider the disparities between the US, Denmark, and Sweden – all three of which are among the world’s most unequal societies, with respect to the distribution of wealth.	让不平等性的故事更加复杂化的是各个经济体之间的不同，包括不平等性程度在技术上相近的经济体之间。


Denmark and Sweden are known for their well-developed social-welfare systems, free education, and high labor-market participation.	众所周知，丹麦和瑞典具有发达的社会福利制度、免费教育和高劳动力市场参与度。


Moreover, Denmark took the top spot in the United Nations’ World Happiness report last year, suggesting that wealth inequality does not trouble Danes too much.	此外，丹麦在去年的联合国世界幸福报告上傲视群雄，表明财富不平等性没有令丹麦人感到多少烦恼。


By contrast, in the US, which lacks many of the social protections provided by its northern European counterparts, inequality is very troubling indeed.	与这些北欧国家相反，美国缺少多种社会保护，不平等性问题也确实十分令人头痛。


The increase in wealth inequality there over the last decade has been the most pronounced of any country.	过去十年，美国财富不平等性的上升幅度比任何国家都要触目惊心。


Today, the US has the smallest middle class, holding just 22% of total net financial assets, half the average of other industrialized countries, and the highest concentration of wealth than in any other country.	如今，美国的中产阶级规模很小，他们只持有22%的总净金融财富，是其他工业化国家平均水平的一半，而其财富集中度比任何其他国家都要高。


As in Europe or Japan, the financial crisis and subsequent monetary policy might be a major cause for this development.	与欧洲和日本一样，金融危机及随后的货币政策可能是这一趋势的主要原因。


However, another factor could also be the digital revolution which, at least for the main protagonists, is increasingly turning out to be a “wealth catalyst”.	但是，另一个因素可能也是数字革命，至少对主流人群而言，它日益成为“财富催化剂”。


In any case, it is important to recognize that America’s situation is extraordinary.	无论如何，认识到美国的情况是反常情况十分重要。


It does not represent the state of Western capitalism.	美国的情况不代表西方资本主义的状况。


It is the exception, not the rule.	它是一个例外，而不是规则。


All of this has important implications for how to tackle inequality.	所有这些对于如何应对不平等性具有重要影响。


Simply put, if the causes and impacts of inequality differ across countries, so should the policy prescriptions.	简言之，如果各国不平等性的根源和影响不同，政策药方也应该不同。


For some countries, such as in southern Europe, tackling unemployment is critical to enable middle- and lower-income households to save and consume.	对一些国家而言，比如南欧国家，解决失业问题是让中低收入家庭储蓄和消费的关键。


Other countries should focus on improving the conditions for long-term savings, such as through occupational pension schemes.	其他国家应该注重改善长期储蓄条件，如通过职业退休金计划。


Still others would do well to reduce the tax burden, in particular for low- and middle-wage earners.	还有一些国家可以大幅降低税收负担，特别是中低薪收入者。


There is, however, one policy prescription that would benefit many of the countries with the highest levels of inequality.	但是，有一个政策药方能够有利于许多不平等性水平最高的国家。


Central banks must bring down the curtain on zero and, especially, negative interest rates.	央行必须结束零利率以及（尤其是）负利率。


Doing so would certainly be a good start to combating rising wealth inequality.	这样做必能成为遏制财富不平等性加剧的良好开端。


Comrade Trump and the Truth	特朗普同志和真相


OXFORD – When US President-elect Donald Trump takes office later this month, Americans will be more divided than they have been in years.	牛津——当美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普本月底就职时，美国人将比多年以来出现更加分裂的状况。


Never before has an American presidential inauguration been met with so many hosannas from the United States’ oldest foe, Russia, and with such nervous anguish from its closest allies.	美国总统就职仪式从未得到过美国最古老的敌人俄罗斯如此多的赞美，也从未引起过美国最亲密盟友如此多的紧张。


And never before has a US president been elected with such a popular-vote deficit: 2.8 million and counting.	而且美国总统当选也从未出现过如此多的民众投票赤字：280万，而且还在统计当中。


The leader of a government that is supposed to be of, by, and for the people has been elected by a clear minority of those people.	一个本该民有、民治、民享的政府其选举结果却明显来自少数人。


It is fitting that only the Kremlin shares this idea of democracy.	这样的民主理念受到克里姆林宫的称道还差不多。


Of course, educated observers know that US presidential elections are not decided by the popular vote, but by the Electoral College.	当然，受过教育的观察家们知道美国总统选举并非由民众投票所决定，而是由选举团选出。


The Founding Fathers created this system as a compromise between the popular vote and a vote by Congress, to balance the influence of each state.	美国的建国之父们为实现民众和国会投票之间的折衷和平衡各州影响而创建了这套系统。


Alexander Hamilton reckoned that the Electoral College would prevent unqualified candidates with “talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity” from being elected.	亚历山大·汉密尔顿认为选举团有能力阻止“兼具阴谋天赋和深谙人气艺术”的不合格候选人当选。


This rather confirms my view that the men who drafted the US Constitution had a sense of irony.	这在相当程度上证实了我的看法，即起草美国宪法的人颇具讽刺天赋。


When Trump brags that he won by a landslide, he is engaging in his characteristic “truthiness.”	当特朗普吹嘘自己取得压倒性胜利的时候，某种程度上他的确是带有浓重个人特色的“实话实说”。


He won the crucial Democratic firewall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by only 107,000 votes – 0.09% of all votes cast across the country.	他仅以107,000 票的优势赢得了密歇根、威斯康星和宾夕法尼亚等关键的民主党防火墙州——占全国投票总数的0.


This election was not a landslide; it was a little sand blown into the great engine of American democracy by the promise to make Russia – sorry, America – “great again.”	09%。 此次选举并不是什么压倒性胜利，而是揉进美国民主眼中的沙子，承诺要让俄国——对不起，是美国——“再次伟大”。


Apparently, making America great again means pledging to remove elitist crooks from government, and then stuffing your cabinet with billionaires and Goldman Sachs alumni.	让美国再次伟大显然意味着将精英骗子们赶出政府，然后再用亿万富翁和曾几何时高盛的同事来填满内阁。


It means spurring economic growth, and then imposing a 35% tariff on imports.	它意味着刺激经济增长，然后对进口商品强征35%的关税。


And it means, among other things, promising to restore steelworkers’ and miners’ jobs, end the cosseting of minorities, deport all undocumented migrants, cut taxes and increase infrastructure spending by hundreds of billions of dollars, repeal Obamacare, eliminate or somehow renegotiate the national debt, torture militants, and target their families.	此外，它还意味着承诺恢复钢铁工人和矿工的工作、停止接纳少数民族、驱逐所有无证移民、实行成百上千亿美元的减税和增加基础设施开支计划、废除奥巴马医改、废除或以某种方式重新谈判国家债务、折磨武装份子并将矛头对准他们的家族。


Come next year, everyone in Washington, DC, had better be nice to Trump, lest they be subjected to nasty tweets, hate mail, and online attacks.	即将到来的一年，首都华盛顿的每个人最好都迎合特朗普，否则就有可能面对下流的推特、仇恨邮件和网络攻击。


And woe betide anyone who suggests that Russia’s malign interference in the election has anything to do with Trump’s own warmth toward Russian President Vladimir Putin.	而上天保佑，所有认为特朗普对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的亲热态度与俄罗斯恶意干预大选有关的人都厄运缠身。


Never mind that the CIA and FBI have concluded that Russia hacked both Democrats and Republicans, but only leaked Democrats’ emails; or that US President Barack Obama has now responded with a report detailing Russia’s involvement and sanctions against Russian intelligence agencies.	别去管中央情报局和联邦调查局给出的俄罗斯黑客同时攻击民主党和共和党邮件，却唯独泄露了民主党的电邮； 也不用管美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马现在拿出了一份报告，详细说明了俄罗斯在总统选举中所做的手脚和对俄情报部门的制裁行动。


The inquiries into these weighty matters will continue after Trump’s inauguration, and you can bet that they will multiply, as leaks flood out of Washington.	特朗普就职后调查人员将继续就这些重要问题进行取证，我敢打赌随着泄露信息的洪流涌出华盛顿，它们会以几何级数倍增。


Some of these may be false flags or bits of speculation, but others may be true, and possibly horrifying.	其中有些可能是虚假信息或缺乏根据的猜测，但有些却可能是真相，而且可能非常恐怖。


Either way, they will all be divisive, and they will weaken the US and its president.	无论如何，它们都将加剧国内分裂，同时削弱美国总统。


Still, Trump will weather the storm, unless investigators can confirm complicity between his campaign and any Russian entity known to be connected to Putin.	但特朗普仍然可以在这场风暴中全身而退，除非调查人员能够证实其竞选团队和与普京有联系的任何俄罗斯机构共谋。


One can only guess what the prize would be for finding such a treacherous link.	找到这样的叛国联系所要付出的代价一般人根本想象不出。


This will all be very messy, but we should perhaps be grateful that the shoe is not on the other foot.	局面肯定将一片混乱，但我们或许应当庆幸没有上演另外一幕。


Imagine that Trump had won the popular vote by a wide margin, but suffered a narrow defeat in the Electoral College.	如果特朗普的民众选票大幅领先，但希拉里却在选举团投票中险胜。


Imagine if this happened alongside CIA reports that Russian intelligence agencies had hacked and leaked Trump’s campaign emails to put him at a disadvantage.	如果这种情况伴随着中央情报局的调查报告，称俄罗斯情报机构攻击并且泄露特朗普竞选团队的邮件，导致他在竞选中陷入被动。


And imagine that Hillary Clinton was packing her cabinet with billionaires.	再想象一下，希拉里·克林顿在她的内阁里塞满了亿万富翁。


What would Trump be doing?	如果出现那种情况，特朗普会怎么做？


He would likely rally his supporters, who have been led to believe that Clinton and her husband are corrupt murderers.	他很可能会集结他的支持者，这些人在误导下相信克林顿及其丈夫是腐败的凶手。


Indeed, if the tables were turned, there would be ample cause to worry for the future of the US – a country that I love and have long admired.	事实上，如果局面出现逆转，为美国这个我所热爱并一直仰慕的国家未来担心将具备充分的理由。


So, what can we do in the dark days ahead?	那么，面对未来的黑暗日子我们有什么对策？


For starters, we must not allow lies to crowd out the truth in public discourse and debate.	首先，我们不能容忍谎言在公众探讨和辩论中将真相挤出。


If social media are full of falsehoods, counter them with facts.	如果社交媒体充满谬误，必须用事实来进行回应。


If co-workers are repeating fake-news headlines or ignorant, prejudiced claims, challenge them on it.	如果您的同事在重复伪造的新闻头条或无知偏见的说法，我们应当站出来勇敢纠正。


If television or radio news programs are distorting the truth, pick up the phone and tell them and their advertisers what you think.	如果电视或广播节目正在歪曲真相，打电话将你的想法告诉他们和他们的广告商。


And ask your pastors and other community leaders to roll up their sleeves and do the same.	要求你的牧师和其他社区领袖卷起袖子一起这么做。


Each of us, as citizens, must campaign for truth and against prejudice and humbug, because if we lose the truth, democracy will be next.	我们每个公民都必须说出真相，反对偏见和谎言，因为如果我们不坚持真理，接下来牺牲的就将是民主。


As Saint Augustine supposedly said, “The truth is like a lion; you don’t have to defend it.	正如圣奥古斯丁所说的那样，“真相就像一头雄狮。 它不需要你来保护。


Let it loose, and it will defend itself.”	放它出去，它就能够自我保护。 ”


In 2017, we must open the lion’s cage.	2017年，我们必须打开关有这头雄狮的铁笼。


Consolidating Latin America’s Gains	巩固拉丁美洲的成就


SANTIAGO – At the time of last year’s failed coup in Turkey, I emailed a Turkish friend expressing concern.	圣地亚哥—去年土耳其发生未遂政变时，我给我的土耳其朋友发电子邮件表示关注。


His answer left me thinking.	他的回答让我陷入了沉思。


After a somber review of events in his country, he concluded: “You are very lucky to be in Latin America, even though it may not seem that way sometimes.”	在愤懑地回顾了国内的所发生的事件后，他说，“你在拉丁美洲真是幸运，尽管有时候好像并不是这样。 ”


We Latin Americans are complainers.	我们拉丁美洲人时常抱怨。


We shudder to think that other people’s lot could be worse than ours.	想到还有其他人比我们更加糟糕，这让我们不寒而栗。


But if a Latin American views today’s world objectively, it’s easy to understand why many would consider us fortunate.	但如果拉美人能够客观地看待当今世界，很容易就能理解为何许多人认为我们还算幸运。


Terrorism is on the rise in Europe, just as Colombia’s civil war, the region’s last, is ending.	恐怖主义正在欧洲兴起，而拉丁美洲最后的内战——哥伦比亚内战正在走向结束。


Argentines, Brazilians, and Chileans of my generation grew up with heavily armed soldiers patrolling airports, train stations, and other public places.	我们这一代阿根廷、巴西和智利人生长在荷枪实弹的士兵巡查机场、火车站和其他公共场所的时代。


Today we see the same in Brussels, Paris, and London, not here.	如今，布鲁塞尔、巴黎和伦敦，而不是我们这里，正在发生同样的事情。


Compared to US President Donald Trump, some of Latin America’s populist politicians seem almost competent and well informed.	与美国总统特朗普形成对比的是，一些拉丁美洲民粹主义政客算得上胜任和知情。


But this is not the first time Latin Americans can feel this way.	但这并不是拉丁美洲人第一次有这样的感觉。


As Carlos Díaz-Alejandro, the great Cuban-American economic historian, put it:	伟大的古巴裔美国经济史家卡洛斯·迪亚兹-亚历杭德罗（Carlos Díaz-Alejandro）指出：


“Reviewing the 1930s and 1940s, most Latin Americans could feel lucky, at least relative to the rest of humanity.	“回顾20世纪30和40年代，大部分拉丁美洲人都会觉得幸运，至少相对其他地区的人类而言是如此。


The Spanish and the Chinese Civil Wars, World War II, the depth of depression in the United States, Stalinist purges, the political dependence of Asia and Africa, and the pains of decolonization in India and elsewhere could be viewed by Brazilians and Mexicans as remote events that could not happen here any more.”	西班牙和中国内战、第二次世界大战、美国的大萧条、斯大林大清洗、亚洲和非洲的政治不独立，还有印度去殖民地化的痛苦，这些对于巴西人和墨西哥人来说，都是遥远的事情，不可能发生在自己的祖国。 ”


The sharpest contrast was political.	最鲜明的对比是政治。


“In contrast with the ideological, religious, and ethnic frenzies of Europe, India, and even North America,” Díaz-Alejandro continues, “most Latin Americans viewed themselves then as tolerant, a view largely correct at least in relative terms, and demonstrated by the many refugees who found a haven in the region.”	“与欧洲、印度乃至北美的思想、宗教和种族混乱相比，”迪亚兹-亚历杭德罗继续写道，“当时的大部分拉丁美洲人自认为相当宽容，这个自我评价，至少从相对角度来说是基本正确的，而许多难民在拉丁美洲找到了避风港也可以证明这一点。 ”


The year 1948 saw the outbreak of “la violencia” in Colombia; today we witness the murderous persecution of President Nicolás Maduro’s political opponents in Venezuela.	1948年，哥伦比亚“暴力”（la violencia）拉开帷幕； 如今，我们还能目睹委内瑞拉总统马杜罗在国内残酷迫害政治反对派。


Political repression was common in Central America back then, and remains common in Cuba today.	政治镇压在当时的中美洲稀松平常，古巴至今仍是如此。


But they are the exceptions that confirm the rule.	但这些只是证明规律的例外。


Just as “the 1930s and 1940s witnessed little political bloodletting in Latin America,” in Díaz-Alejandro’s words, the same is largely true today.	正如“20世纪30和40年代在拉丁美洲鲜有政治流血，”（迪亚兹-亚历杭德罗语），今天大体也是如此。


Our democracies remain imperfect, but the region’s increasing political stability is undeniable.	我们的民主仍然不完美，但拉美地区的政治趋于稳定是不容否认的。


We have had our share of wild-eyed populists recently.	如今，我们都存在激进的民粹主义者。


But with the exception of Venezuela, where authoritarian chavistas remain in power despite massive opposition, populism is on the wane.	但除了委内瑞拉的极权主义查韦斯派在大规模群众反对声浪中仍能屹立不倒，其他国家的民粹主义正在式微。


In Ecuador, former president Rafael Correa managed to get his handpicked successor elected, but low oil prices and dollar shortages make a turn toward policy moderation quite likely.	在委内瑞拉，前总统科雷拉成功地让自己挑选的继承人当选总统，但低油价和美元短缺意味着极有可能发生政策缓和（policy moderation）。


In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri, who ousted the Peronist-populist Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, remains popular despite an inevitable economic adjustment and slow growth.	在阿根廷，总统马克里将庇隆主义的民粹主义者基什内尔扫地出门，尽管发生了不可避免的经济调整和低增长，他仍能保持非常高的支持率。


The 1930s and 1940s were a time of great social and political change in the region.	20世纪30和40年代是拉丁美洲发生重大社会和政治变化的时代。


Migration from abroad and from the countryside to the city gave rise to a new urban middle class employed mostly in government-related jobs.	外国流入和农村流向城市的移民产生了新的城市中产阶级，他们大多从事公职。


The political clout of traditional land-owning elites declined, and powerful new working-class-based parties began to emerge.	传统地主精英的政治力量衰落，强大的以工人阶级为基础的政党开始出现。


Today, a new middle class – employed mostly in private firms – is on the rise.	如今，新的中产阶级正在兴起，他们大多在私营企业工作。


In many countries, consumption has been booming, even as economic growth slows.	在许多国家，消费一直处于繁荣，即使经济增长缓慢。


Shopping malls crop up in newly built suburbs, and Facebook has made it to the smallest Andean village.	购物中心在新建市郊地区大量出现，Facebook已经走进安第斯山脉最偏远的小村庄。


Economic inequality remains high, but income disparities in Latin America have been narrowing for nearly two decades, just as they widened in the United States and Europe.	经济不平等程度仍然剧烈，但拉丁美洲的收入差距在近二十年来一直在减小，而美国和欧洲一直在扩大。


There are other economic similarities with the past.	还有其他与过去相似的经济状况。


One is the trajectory of commodity export prices, which increased through the late 1930s and 1940s, following the Depression-era collapse.	其中之一是大宗商品价格轨迹，在20世纪30年代末到40年代，大宗商品价格在大萧条时期的暴跌后进入涨势。


They likewise increased after the 2008-09 crisis, peaking in 2015.	类似地，2008—09年危机后，大宗商品再次上扬，直到2015年见顶。


In both cases, deciding what to do with the surfeit of dollars was a key policy choice.	在这两个时期，关键的政策选择都是如何利用充裕的美元。


Because the 1940s were, in Díaz-Alejandro’s words, the “golden age of import-substituting industrialization in Latin America,” the increase in export values and the compression of imports meant large trade surpluses, which were often used to repay debt.	用迪亚兹-亚历杭德罗的话说，20世纪40年代是“拉丁美洲进口替代工业化的黄金时期”，出口价值的上升和进口价值的下降带来了巨大的贸易盈余，这笔盈余常常被用来偿还债务。


Today, by contrast, most local private sectors have been borrowing abroad to finance what were, until recently, rising current account deficits.	相反，如今，大部分本地私人部门一直在从国外借贷，为直到最近与旨在增加的经常项目赤字融资。


Large stocks of dollar-denominated debt remain a key vulnerability.	巨量美元计价的债务存量仍然是拉丁美洲的一大弱点。


As Latin America entered the 1950s and new export sectors failed to emerge, dollar abundance turned into dollar scarcity.	进入20世纪50年代后，拉丁美洲的新出口部门并没有兴起，美元过剩转为美元紧缺。


Boom-bust cycles and currency crises became common.	枯荣循环和货币危机成为常事。


In what remains of this decade, the region’s policymakers will have to work hard to ensure that it doesn’t happen again, especially as rich-country central banks normalize interest rates and capital flows threaten to turn back toward the advanced economies.	在最近这个十年的其余时间里，拉美地区决策者都必须竭尽全力确保不会再次发生枯荣循环和货币危机，特别是当发达国家央行开始利率正常化、资本可能回流发达经济体的时候。


A key to the relative success of Latin America in the 1930s and 1940s was the willingness to throw out old orthodoxies and experiment with new policies.	拉丁美洲在20世纪30和40年代取得相对成功的一个关键是它们愿意抛弃就正统，尝试新政策。


In response to the Great Depression, most countries abandoned the gold standard, developed new exchange-rate arrangements, and tried novel policies to stimulate local industry.	为了应对大萧条，大部分国家放弃了金本位，制定了新的汇率安排，尝试创新政策刺激本地工业。


“Latin American economic thinking came into its own during the 1940s,” writes Díaz-Alejandro. “The creation of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America was the major impetus behind ... fresh economic approaches.”	“拉丁美洲经济思想在20世纪40年代有了自我发展，”迪亚兹-亚历杭德罗写道，“联合国拉丁美洲经济委员会的建立是新经济方针……背后的重要推动力。


Fresh thinking is also needed today, to sustain Latin America’s recent political and economic gains.	今天也需要新思维保持拉丁美洲最近取得的政治和经济成就。


The turn away from populism is anything but assured, especially if economies do not start growing again soon.	远离民粹主义的趋势一定要巩固，特别是在经济不会很快恢复增长的时候。


With the commodity boom unlikely to return, Latin America urgently needs new export products – and here a bit of modern, if unorthodox, industrial policy could prove useful.	大宗商品繁荣很难复现，因此拉丁美洲急需新的出口品——而在这方面，现代——乃至非正统的——产业政策是大有裨益的。


Politics also needs to be shaken up.	政治也需要有所动作。


Public dissatisfaction with traditional elites and parties is on the rise.	公众对传统精英和政党的不满正在积聚。


Successful new political vehicles like Macri’s Propuesta Republicana (PRO) are still the exception.	成功的政治运动，如马克里的共和国方案（Propuesta Republicana，PRO）仍然只是例外而不是普遍现象。


The political opening that occurred in many Latin American countries in the 1930s and 1940s eventually gave way to the political disarray of the 1960s and the dictatorships of the 1970s and 1980s.	20世纪30和40年代在许多拉丁美洲国家所出现的政治开放最终让位给了20世纪60年代的政治动荡和20世纪70和80年代的独裁统治。


We must not allow that to happen again.	我们决不能重蹈覆辙。


A Bangladeshi Prescription for Cholera	霍乱的孟加拉药方


DHAKA – By now, cholera should be history.	达卡—如今，霍乱应该已经成为了历史。


For decades, health officials have understood how to prevent the disease, doctors have known how to treat it, and development experts have recognized that with clean water and sanitation, outbreaks rarely become epidemics.	几十年来，卫生官员早已明白如何防止这种疾病，医生早已知道如何治疗这种疾病，发展专家早已认识到有了清洁水和卫生设施，霍乱的爆发就很难形成蔓延。


Unfortunately, the world is not so simple and neat, and the nightmare of cholera persists.	不幸的是，世界不是那么简单直白，霍乱的噩梦也还在持续。


In many parts of the world, cholera has in fact been tamed.	在世界大部，霍乱事实上已经被驯服。


Waterborne illnesses are virtually nonexistent in advanced economies.	水传播疾病在发达经济体基本上已经销声匿迹。


And even in resource-starved countries and regions where cholera remains a problem, the availability of oral rehydration therapy, or ORT, has helped prevent countless deaths.	即使在霍乱仍是一个问题的资源紧缺型国家和地区，口服补水疗法（ORT）的普及也帮助无数人捡回了性命。


And yet cholera continues to flare up during times of crisis, killing the most vulnerable among us.	但在危机时期，霍乱仍会肆虐，杀死我们当中最脆弱的群体。


One of the worst epidemics today is ravaging Yemen, where armed conflict has led to the collapse of health, water, and sanitation systems – precisely the conditions under which cholera thrives.	如今，也门正在发生最严重的霍乱疫情，武装冲突导致也门医疗、水和卫生设施系统崩溃——而这正是霍乱爆发的条件。


The first cholera cases were reported in October 2016; within a year, the number of cases had soared to more than 600,000.	第一批霍乱病例报告于2016年10月； 不出一年，病例数量就飙升至600,000以上。


International organizations like the United Nations and the World Health Organization, in cooperation with Yemeni health-care officials, have mounted an impressive response.	联合国和世界卫生组织等国际组织在也门卫生官员的合作下，进行了令人印象深刻的应对。


Their efforts have kept the fatality rate to roughly 0.33% of infections (some 2,000 deaths), mitigating the tragedy.	他们的努力将致死率保持在传染者总数的0. 33%左右（大约2,000人死亡），遏制了悲剧的发生。


But Yemenis are working in impossible conditions, and need resources and training.	但也门人正在不可能的环境中苦苦努力，他们需要资源和培训。


My country is leading the effort to ensure that they receive both.	我的国家在确保他们获得资源和培训方面起着领导作用。


In October, a team of Yemeni nurses and doctors arrived at the International Centre of Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), where I have worked for much of my professional life.	10月， 一支也门护士和医生队伍来到孟加拉国国际腹泻病研究中心（International Centre of Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh，icddr,b）。


Our institute is the birthplace of ORT, and medical professionals from around the world come to Dhaka to be trained to administer this simple solution of sugar, salt, other elements, and water.	这也是我贡献了大部分职业生涯的地方。 我们的研究所诞生了ORT，世界各地的医护人员来到达卡接受培训，管理这个由糖、盐、其他元素和水组成的简单疗法。


Over the course of a week, Yemen’s health professionals received training on outbreak management, surveillance methods, and sanitation.	在为期一周的课程中，也门医护人员接受了关于疾病爆发管理、监测手段和环境卫生方面的培训。


They observed the treatment of cholera patients in our hospital, an experience that provided hands-on training for case management and assessing dehydration status.	他们在我们的医院中观察霍乱病人的治疗情况，这一经验为他们提供了第一手关于病例管理和评估脱水情况的训练。


This is just one example of how icddr,b has helped alleviate human suffering in times of crisis.	这只是icddr,b在危机时期帮助缓解人道灾难的一个例子。


As a founding member of the WHO’s Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN), icddr,b has deployed expert teams to Zimbabwe, Sudan, South Sudan, Mozambique, Syria, Somalia, Haiti, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, and Iraq.	作为世卫组织全球爆发预警和响应网络（Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network，GOARN）的创始成员，icddr,b已向津巴布韦、苏丹、南苏丹、莫桑比克、叙利亚、索马里、海地、塞拉利昂、埃塞俄比亚和伊拉克派遣了专家团队。


By sharing the knowledge and expertise that we have developed over decades of diarrheal disease management and research, we are playing a leading role in global efforts to tackle outbreaks.	通过分享我们在几十年中所积累的腹泻疾病管理和研究的知识和经验，我们在全球应对疾病爆发方面起着领导作用。


Bangladesh knows wartime cholera all too well.	孟加拉国对于战时霍乱爆发有着切肤之痛。


In 1971, fighting broke out when Bangladesh, then known as East Pakistan, declared independence from Pakistan.	1971年，当时仍是东巴基斯坦的孟加拉国宣布脱离巴基斯坦独立，战事随之爆发。


In the ensuing conflict, refugees poured across the border into neighboring India into crowded camps, creating conditions that inevitably gave rise to cholera outbreaks.	在随后的冲突中，难民穿越边境，涌入邻国印度，在拥挤的难民营中暂住，这形成了非常完美的条件，霍乱不爆发都难。


The standard of care at the time was poor, and a dearth of intravenous drips meant that rehydration solutions could not be administered widely.	当时的护理水平非常低，静脉滴注非常罕见，这意味着脱水状况无法得到广泛治疗。


As many people lay dying, a pioneering doctor named Dilip Mahalanabis took a chance in a desperate situation.	很多人垂死挣扎，这时，一位叫做迪利普·马哈拉纳比斯（Dilip Mahalanabis）的医生在绝望之中放手一搏。


American researchers in Bangladesh had shown that ORT could reverse fatal dehydration in cholera patients, but its effectiveness outside hospitals had not yet been proven.	孟加拉国的美国研究者已经证明，ORT可以逆转霍乱病人致命的脱水症状，但其医院外效果仍未得到证实。


Lacking proper equipment and medical facilities, Mahalanabis administered ORT in camps, and in the process, saved thousands of lives.	在缺少合适的设备和医护助手的情况下，马哈拉纳比斯在难民营中开展了ORT并拯救了数千人的生命。


As a result, ORT became the new standard of care for diarrheal disease treatment; it has since saved more than 80 million people around the world.	此后，ORT便成为治疗腹泻疾病的标准方法； 在全市及诶拯救了8,000万多人的生命。


Now, new wartime cholera crises have emerged, and Bangladeshi expertise is again being called into service.	如今，新的战时霍乱危机再次出现，孟加拉国专家也再次应召。


Yemen is only one example.	也门只是一个例子。


Since August, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya have crossed the border into Bangladesh from Myanmar, the highest weekly outflow of refugees anywhere in the world since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.	8月以来，数十万罗兴亚人从缅甸穿越边境来到孟加拉国，这是自1994年卢旺达种族灭绝以来最大规模的周难民流出量。


These desperate and vulnerable people are crowded into refugee camps, and there is a high risk that conditions may lead to a deadly cholera epidemic.	这些绝望又脆弱的人们住在拥挤的难民营中，生活条件导致致命霍乱疫情的风险很高。


In response to this threat, icddr,b is collaborating with UNICEF, the WHO, and other important stakeholders on multiple cholera-prevention initiatives.	为了应对这一威胁，icddr,b和联合国儿童基金会、世卫组织和其他重要相关利益方合作启动了多重霍乱防治计划。


Efforts are being made to improve access to clean water and sanitation, and ORT sachets are being stockpiled.	我们改善了清洁水和卫生设施的普及，ORT药包也正在积累。


We have also worked with the WHO to secure some 900,000 doses of oral cholera vaccine (OCV), an internationally accepted tool to prevent and control outbreaks.	我们也和世卫组织一起确保了900,000剂口服霍乱疫苗（OCT），这也是被国际认可的预防和控制霍乱爆发的工具。


Like ORT, the development of OCV has roots in Bangladesh, and at icddr,b in particular.	和ORT一样，OCV的开发也源自孟加拉国，特别是icddr,b。


The vaccine’s first successful field trials were conducted at icddr,b in the 1980s, and today, our scientists are drawing on decades of institutional knowledge to execute the second-largest OCV campaign ever conducted.	该疫苗的首批成功现场试验就是icddr,b在20世纪80年代完成的，如今，我们的科学家正在集几十年理论知识累积之功，实施第二大规模的OCV战役。


It might be hard to imagine that a developing country like Bangladesh could play a pioneering role in managing a disease of such magnitude.	也许很难想象孟加拉国这样的发展中国家能够在管理如此规模的疾病方面起到先锋作用。