But that is not likely to help growth, and it imposes the burden on the workforce and the young who are trying to enter it, a valuable subset of whom are mobile and could simply leave.	但这无助于增长，并且会给工作人口和试图找到工作的年轻人带来负担，他们中有相当一部分人不会囿于一地，可以选择一走了之。


Likewise, issuing more debt to cover the portion of liabilities coming due would merely shift the composition of liabilities without reducing them.	类似地，发行更多债务覆盖需要支出的责任只能改变责任的性质，而不能降低责任。


The only other alternative is direct reduction.	唯一的替代方案是直接降低。


For sovereign debt, that means default, which will happen only in extreme circumstances; for non-debt liabilities, it means changing systemic parameters – for example, increasing the retirement age – which is contentious and exceptionally difficult to do politically.	对主权债务来说，这意味着违约，只能在极端条件下发生； 对非债务责任来说，这意味着改变系统参数——比如增加退休年龄，会在政治上产生争议，极难推行。


The third missing ingredient is structural flexibility, which is needed for two reasons.	第三个欠缺的成分是结构灵活度，之所以重要原因有二。


First, most advanced economies have maintained the unbalanced growth patterns that led to the global crisis in 2008.	首先，大部分发达经济体都经历了失衡增长模式，从而导致了2008年全球危机。


Restoring growth requires structural changes.	重塑增长需要结构性变化。


In the US, though growth remains well below potential, data suggest that about half of the recovery in growth has resulted from a shift in capital and labor to the tradable side of the economy, with shale gas providing a big boost.	在美国，尽管增长仍显著低于潜在水平，但数据表明大约一半的增长复苏是由资本和劳动力向经济的可贸易端转移实现的，其中页岩气提供了巨大的提振作用。


That is either not occurring or happening at a glacial pace in southern European economies, where structural rigidities in labor and services markets need to be addressed.	而这在南欧经济体要么不存在，要么进展极为缓慢。 南欧的劳动力和服务市场的僵化结构必须改变。


The exception is Spain, which initiated labor-market reforms in late 2012.	西班牙是个例外，它在2012年启动了劳动力市场改革。


Perhaps as these reforms’ impact becomes more visible, reform momentum will increase in other countries.	也许随着这些改革效果的日益显现，其他国家的改革动力也会增长。


Even without crisis-related imbalances, structural flexibility in all economies is necessary to adapt to the shifts caused by globalization and the labor-saving and skill-biased technological shifts associated with the rising value of digital capital.	即使没有与危机相关的失衡，所有经济体也都需要结构灵活度以适应全球化以及随数字资本价值崛起而兴起的劳动力节约和技能偏向性技术变迁所带来的变化。


In the past 30 years, the global economy added 1.5 billion new connected workers in developing countries, with three billion new consumers in sight.	在过去3年中，全球经济在发展中国家增加了15亿个连接在一起的工人（connected worker），更带来了三十亿新消费者。


Digital technologies have eliminated millions of routine white- and blue-collar jobs, and we are rapidly entering the realm of cognitive-based employment.	数字技术带走了数百万个传统白领和蓝领岗位，我们正在快速进入基于认知（cognitive-based）的就业领域。


If investment in human capital is to keep up with the changing composition of employment, structural flexibility is needed.	如果人力资本投资要想跟上就业性质的变化，就需要有结构灵活度。


Europe has a real chance to conclude a bargain: member countries implement fiscal and structural reforms in exchange for short-run relaxation of fiscal constraints – not to increase liabilities, but to focus on growth-oriented investments to jump-start sustained recovery.	欧洲有切实的机会达成交易：成员国实施财政和结构性改革，换取财政约束的短期放松——责任不再增加，而是专注于增长导向型投资以启动持续复苏。


Private investors would take note, accelerating the recovery process.	私人投资者将引起注意，加速复苏进程。


The challenge now is to seize the opportunity.	现在的挑战是抓住这次机会。


Labor’s Digital Displacement	劳动力的数字替代


MILAN – Digital technologies are once again transforming global value chains and, with them, the structure of the global economy.	米兰—数字技术正在再一次改变全球价值链乃至全球经济结构。


What do businesses, citizens, and policymakers need to know as they scramble to keep up?	企业、公民和决策者需要知道哪些东西才能不落后于时代？


Digitally enabled supply chains initially increased efficiency and dramatically shortened lead times.	受到数字技术助力的供应链首先增进了效率，极大地缩短了交货时间。


Capital was mobile; labor less so.	资本得到了动员；


Economic activity (production, research, design, etc.) moved to any accessible country or region that had relatively inexpensive labor and human capital.	劳动力则否。 经济活动（生产、研究、设计等）转向任何一个劳动力和人力资本相对廉价又容易进入的国家。


With only a slight lag, complexity became manageable, and global supply chains’ linear model (something produced in country A is consumed in country B) gave way to a more complex model with more fragmented but more efficient supply networks.	用不了多久，复杂性问题便能够解决，而全球供应链的线性模式（在A国生产，在B国被消费）便让位给了包括更碎片化但也更高效的供给网络的更复杂的模式。


Meanwhile, a dramatic shift occurred on the demand side, as emerging economies grew and became middle-income countries.	与此同时，需求端产生了巨大的变化，新兴经济体成长为中等收入国家。


Developing country producers, who in an earlier era accounted for a relatively small fraction of global demand, became major consumers.	发展中生产国成了主要消费者，而此前它们只占全球需求的很小一部分。


Global supply networks shifted again, accommodating fragmentation and dispersion on both the supply and demand sides of their structure, a process sometimes called technologically enabled atomization: the division of supply networks into finer and finer parts, breaking the bonds of proximity and the resulting transaction-cost constraints that previously prevailed.	全球供给网络再一次发生了改变，以适应其结构中供给端和需求端的碎片化和分散化，这一过程有时被称为技术推动的自动化（technologically enabled atomization）：供给网络越分越精细，打破了此前普遍存在的相邻地域联系以及由此产生的交易成本约束。


For example, many services related to intermediate and final demand require knowledge, expertise, information, and communication for their delivery.	比如，许多与中间和最终需求有关的服务需要知识、专家、信息和通信才能提供。


What they do not require is geographical nearness or the physical movement of goods.	而地理上的接近或实体商品的转移是不需要的。


They represent a large share of the global economy, and they are gravitating rapidly toward the tradable sector, with increasingly powerful digital and information technology chasing imperfectly mobile human resources and new rapidly growing markets.	它们代表了全球经济的很大比重，并且正在迅速向可贸易部门靠拢，日益强大的数字和信息技术追逐着流动性尚不完美的人力资源和快速成长的市场。


In the course of this transformation, millions of people joined the global economy, with wide-ranging consequences – many of which remain challenging – for poverty, prices, wages, and income distributions.	在这一转变过程中，数百万人进入了全球经济，并带来了各种各样的广泛后果——其中有许多仍是挑战性的——包括贫困、价格、工资和收入分配等方面。


Now comes a second, potentially even more powerful, wave of digital technology that is replacing labor in increasingly complex tasks.	现在，第二波数字技术浪潮正在到来，这一次浪潮力量更大，并将在越来越复杂的任务中取代劳动力。


This process of labor substitution and disintermediation has been underway for some time in service sectors – think of ATMs, online banking, enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management, mobile payment systems, and much more.	这一劳动力替代和脱媒过程在服务部门已经开始了一段时间——如ATM机、在线银行、企业资源规划、客户关系管理、移动支付系统，等等。


This revolution is spreading to the production of goods, where robots and 3D printing are displacing labor.	这一演进方向正在传导给商品生产，机器人和3D打印正在取代劳动力。


It is important to understand the economics of these technologies.	理解这些技术的经济学很重要。


The vast majority of the cost comes at the start, in the design of hardware (like sensors) and, more important, in creating the software that produces the capability to carry out various tasks.	成本的绝大部分来自开始阶段，产生于硬件（如传感器）设计以及（更重要的）开发有能力处理各种任务的软件的过程中。


Once this is achieved, the marginal cost of the hardware is relatively low (and declines as scale rises), and the marginal cost of replicating the software is essentially zero.	一旦完成了这一过程，硬件的边际成本便相对较小（并且随着规模的增加而降低），而复制软件的边际成本则接近于零。


With a huge potential global market to amortize the upfront fixed costs of design and testing, the incentives to invest are compelling.	潜在的全球市场规模巨大，用以摊销设计和测试的前置固定成本绰绰有余，因此投资动力无穷。


In other words, unlike the preceding wave of digital technology, which motivated firms to gain access to and deploy underutilized pools of valuable labor around the world, the driving force in this round is cost reduction via the replacement of labor.	换句话说，今次数字技术浪潮与前次不同。 前次数字技术浪潮促使企业接近并利用全球闲置高价值劳动力储备，而今次数字技术浪潮的推动力是通过劳动力替代实现降低成本。


This transformation has important side effects.	这一转变具有重要的副作用。


For physical goods, there are costs associated with logistics and lead times, owing to inventories and poor forecasts of the market.	对实体商品来说，拜存货和拙劣的市场预测所赐，存在与物流和交货时间相关的成本。


With digital capital-intensive technology, however, production will inevitably move toward the final market, wherever it is.	但是，有了数字资本密集型技术，生产将不可避免地移向最终市场，不管这一市场位于何处。


This re-localization constitutes a major shift in the structure of global supply networks.	这一再本地化构成了全球供应链结构的重大变化。


An extreme form of this may be coming in the form of 3D printing, a technology that makes it possible to produce an astonishingly wide and growing range of products by printing them one layer at a time.	这一过程的极端形式可能将以3D打印的形式出现，3D打印技术能够让范围广得令人瞠目的产品通过一次打印一个部件的形式生产出来。


Examples include buildings, athletic shoes, designer lamps, aircraft wings, and much more.	建筑、运动鞋、设计师灯、机翼等都是例子。


As the costs of this technology decline, it is easy to imagine that production will become extremely local and customized.	随着这一技术成本的降低，不难想象生产将变得极端本地化和个性化。


Moreover, production may occur in response to actual demand, not anticipated or forecast demand.	此外，生产还可能响应实际需求而生，而不需要靠预测或预估需求。


In some sense, this represents the ultimate compression of supply chains, as firms produce to final demand with minimal delay.	从某种程度上说，这表明供应链将被压缩到最短，企业将以最短的时滞生产出最终需求。


Meanwhile, the impact of robotics (another technology with digital foundations), is not confined to production.	与此同时，机器人（另一项需要数字基础的技术）的影响超过了生产范畴。


Though self-driving cars and drones are the most attention-getting examples, the impact on logistics is no less transformative.	最吸引眼球的例子是自动驾驶汽车和无人机等，但其对物流的影响也不遑多让。


Computers and robotic cranes that schedule and move containers around and load ships now control the Port of Singapore, one of the most efficient in the world.	能够排列和移动集装箱、装载货船的计算机和机器人起重机已经控制了世界效率最高港口之一的新加坡港。


Developing countries in the early stages of growth need to understand these trends.	位于增长早期阶段的发展中国家需要理解这些趋势。


Labor, no matter how inexpensive, will become a less important asset for growth and employment expansion, with labor-intensive, process-oriented manufacturing becoming a less effective way for early-stage developing countries to enter the global economy.	劳动力不管多么廉价，都将沦为增长和就业扩张的次要资产，而劳动密集型、过程导向型制造业将不再是发展早期阶段国家进入全球经济的做有效手段。


Re-localization will be seen everywhere, including lower-income countries.	再本地化将成为普遍现象，包括在低收入国家。


Production will not vanish; it will just be less labor intensive.	生产不会消失，只是劳动密集度会下降。


All countries will eventually need to rebuild their growth models around digital technologies and the human capital that supports their deployment and expansion.	所有国家都将需要围绕数字技术以及支持数字技术的部署和扩张的人力资本来重建增长模式。


The retail sector, too, is being transformed.	零售业也在被改变。


Online retail and supporting logistics is expanding in a wide range of advanced and developing economies.	在线零售和支持物流正在大量发达和发展中国家蓬勃发展。


In China, where the expansion is occurring extremely quickly, estimates suggest that only part of the expansion is at the expense of traditional retail.	在中国，扩张之势更是如火如荼，统计数据表明，如此扩张只是对传统零售业有一定程度的冲击。


In fact, online retail appears to be accelerating the expansion of the overall consumer market.	事实上，在线零售似乎在加速总体消费市场的扩张。


Knowledgeable participants expect the new retail model to be an integrated form of online and physical retail, each modified by the presence of the other.	聪明的参与者预期新零售模式将是集成了在线和实体零售的形式，并且两种方式相得益彰。


Think again of the 3D printing model, a potential form of demand-driven mass-customization, and its combination with online mobile payments systems and social media.	再次以3D打印模式为例，这是需求驱动型大规模定制的潜在形式，可以与在线移动支付系统和社交媒体相结合。


The integration of sourcing with logistics and retail will become the third leg of the stool.	将采购和物流与零售相结合将成为第三只脚。


The world we are entering is one in which the most powerful global flows will be ideas and digital capital, not goods, services, and traditional capital.	世界正在进入一个新时代，最强大的全球流将是思想和数字资本，而不是商品、服务和传统资本。


Adapting to this will require shifts in mindsets, policies, investments (especially in human capital), and quite possibly models of employment and distribution.	适应这一新时代需要思维、政策、投资（特别是人力资本投资）的转变，很可能还需要就业和分配模式的转变。


No one knows fully how all of this will play out.	没人能够完全知道所有这些将如何展开。


But attempting to understand where the technological forces and trends are leading us is a good place to start.	但试图了解技术力量和趋势正在将我们引向何方是很好的开端。


The Gain in Spain	西班牙的教益


MILAN – The Spanish economy is beginning to attract investors’ attention – and not only because asset prices are depressed in the current climate (arguably implying a good buy for longer-term, value investors).	发自米兰——西班牙经济正逐渐引发投资者的关注——不仅是因为当前形势下地产价格低迷（这对长期价值投资者来说意味着一个良好的买入点）。


While there are huge problems that must still be overcome, there is also a clear sense on the ground that the economy has passed a turning point, roughly at the start of this year.	虽然仍需克服众多严峻问题，但明显感觉当地经济大约在今年初已经经过了一个拐点。


To skeptics, green shoots of recovery will not bloom without access to the credit spigot, which is still clogged by balance-sheet damage in many banks.	怀疑论者认为，如果无法接通信贷渠道，复苏的春天也不会到来，但该渠道仍然在许多银行资产负债表的受损之下陷于停滞。


But, though the road back to full employment and sustainable growth will not be built overnight, progress on it may be faster than most observers expect.	虽然恢复全面就业和可持续增长的道路不会一蹴而就，但进展可能超出大多数观察家的预计。


It is easy to get lost in the details of recovery patterns, so a sound framework for assessing potential growth helps.	人们很容易迷失在复苏模式的细节之中，因此建立健全的潜在增长评估框架将有所帮助。


In fact, the Spanish economy is a classic case of a defective growth pattern followed by a predictable, policy-assisted recovery that is driven (with a delay) mostly by the tradable sector.	事实上，可以将西班牙经济视为一个经典案例,其增长模式本身是有缺陷的，随后又出现了一个主要由贸易部门推动（但有所滞后），可预测，并且是政策辅助的复苏。


Prior to the crisis, Spain’s economy relied on demand created by a leveraged real-estate bubble – a pattern not dissimilar in some respects to that in the United States.	在危机之前，西班牙经济依赖于房地产杠杆泡沫创造的需求——这种模式在某些方面与美国极为相似。


Thus, both growth and employment came at the expense of the tradable side of the economy.	因此，无论是增长和就业都只能以牺牲经济的贸易部分为代价。


Unit labor costs rose steadily relative to Germany – not only in Spain but also in all of southern Europe, and in France – in the decade beginning in 2000, following the euro’s introduction.	2000年以来的十年间，随着欧元引入，该国单位劳动力成本相比德国逐步上涨——欧洲南部以及法国也是如此。


The crisis struck domestic demand, and the tradable sector was incapacitated, because the rapid rise in relative unit labor costs, combined with an over-valued euro, had undermined competitiveness.	危机冲击了国内需求,而贸易部门对此也无能为力,因为相对单位劳动成本迅速上升和欧元汇率高估已经压低了竞争力。


Moreover, the crisis-related damage to banks’ balance sheets constrained demand by severely limiting household credit and lending to small and medium-size businesses.	此外，与危机相关的银行资产负债表损失又遏制了需求，家庭信贷和中小企业贷款都严重受限。


Spain was not in an enviable position.	西班牙的日子可不好过。


The rapid deterioration of fiscal position after the crisis made any substantial countercyclical response impossible, while regulatory constraints limited the economy’s structural flexibility.	危机后财政状况的迅速恶化导致切实的反周期政策回应无法实现，而监管方面的种种限制又遏制了经济结构灵活性的发挥。


The path to recovery, though difficult and lengthy, has been relatively clear and specific.	通往复苏之路，虽然艰难而漫长，但也是相当清楚明确的。


First, unit labor costs needed to decline toward productivity levels to restore competitiveness – a painful process without the exchange-rate mechanism.	首先必须把单位劳动力成本降低至接近高生产力水平以恢复竞争力——这在缺乏汇率机制的情况下是个相当痛苦的过程。


In fact, there has been substantial post-crisis re-convergence toward German levels.	事实上，已经出现了一些在危机后向德国生产力水平靠拢的切实迹象。


Second, both capital and labor needed to flow to the tradable sector, where demand constraints can be relaxed as relative productivity converges.	其次，资本和劳动力都必须向贸易部门靠拢，同时对需求的限制也会随着生产力差距的相对缩小而得到松绑。


Like many other southern European countries, however, labor-market and other rigidities dramatically reduced the speed and increased the costs of structural economic adjustment, resulting in lower levels of growth and employment, especially for young people and first-time job-seekers.	然而正如其他许多南欧国家，劳动力市场和其他僵化规则都会拖慢结构性经济改革的进度并增加其成本，导致增长和就业——尤其是年轻人和初次就业者——形势低迷。


But Spanish policymakers and business leaders appeared to grasp the nature of the pre-crisis economic imbalances – and the importance of the tradable sector as a recovery engine.	但西班牙的政策制定者和商界领袖似乎抓住了危机前经济失衡的本质——以及贸易部门作为复苏引擎的重要性。


Recognizing that the economy could not benefit from a partial restoration of competitiveness without structural shifts, the government passed a significant labor-market reform in the spring of 2013.	而在重��认识到经济是无法从一个缺乏结构性转换的局部竞争力修复中得益之后，政府在2013年春季通过了一项重大的劳动市场改革。


It was controversial, because, like all such measures, it rescinded certain kinds of protections for workers.	此项改革争议极大，但正如所有这些手段一样，它废除了对劳动者的某些保护措施。


But the ultimate protection is growing employment.	但最终的保护依然是要实现就业的不断增长。


With a lag, the reform now appears to be bearing fruit.	虽然有所滞后，但改革如今似乎已经结下硕果。


Indeed, though domestic investment is constrained by credit availability, major European and Latin American multinationals have begun investing in the Spanish economy, attracted partly by its enhanced competitive posture and structural flexibility, and, on a slightly longer time horizon, by a recovery in domestic demand.	事实上，虽然国内投资受到了信贷发放量的限制，主要欧洲和拉美跨国企业都以及开始投资西班牙经济。 它们在某种程度上是被该国竞争力增强的态势以及结构灵活性所吸引，而以稍微长远一点的眼光来看，是被国内需求的复苏所吸引。


Private equity is flowing in as well, not only because the valuations are attractive, but also because potential growth in Spain now seems within reach.	私人资本也在流入，不仅因为估值相当吸引，也是由于西班牙的潜在增长目前看来更加触手可及了。


Though Spain and Italy are similarly depressed in terms of current growth and employment, especially for the young, two significant differences stand out.	虽然西班牙和意大利当前都在增长和就业（尤其是青年人）方面都处于低潮，但其中存在着两大明显区别。


One is that, unlike Spain, Italy has experienced relatively little convergence of unit labor costs with productivity.	一是相对于西班牙来说，意大利的单位劳动力成本和生产力之间的差距未有较大改善。


That restricts the potential of the tradable part of the economy as a growth engine.	这限制了贸易部门作为经济增长引擎的潜力。


The second difference is that labor-market reform and market liberalization in Italy remain on the to-do list for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s new government.	第二个差异是意大利的劳动市场改革和市场解除管制措施依然停留在其总理马泰奥·伦奇（Matteo Renzi）新组建政府的议程上。


If Italy is to take advantage of the growth potential on the tradable side of the economy, following through is crucial – just as it was for Spain.	如果意大利想要开发经济中属于贸易部门一方的增长潜力，后续行动就极为关键——正如西班牙那样。


There is no chance in either country that domestic demand alone will support sustained growth in the short to medium term.	两国在中短期内都不可能单靠国内需求来支撑持续增长。


Moreover, both countries need growth-oriented policies to help with deleveraging.	此外，两国都需要实施以增长为导向的政策来协助去杠杆化。


As Spain’s experience has shown, though structural flexibility is difficult to achieve politically, it is essential for strong economic performance.	西班牙的经验表明，虽然在政治上达致结构灵活性极为困难，但这却是实现强劲经济所必需的因素。


One reason is that rebalancing is needed when a defective growth pattern distorts the economy’s structure, particularly the balance between the tradable and non-tradable sectors.	一个原因是当经济结构被有缺陷的增长模式破坏后必须进行重新平衡，尤其是贸易部门和非贸易部门之间的再平衡。


Another is that technological and global market forces are imposing structural change on all advanced economies, even those that are not unbalanced.	此外则是科技和全球市场力量都在对所有发达国家施加结构性变革，那些结构不平衡的也无法置身事外。


Built-in rigidities impede adaptation and adversely affect growth and employment.	内在的僵化状况阻碍了调整并对增长和就业产生了反作用。


Generally, the successful economies in the past three decades have been those that adopted reforms and policies aimed at increasing structural adaptability: one thinks of the US after Ronald Reagan, the United Kingdom after Margaret Thatcher, Germany after Gerhard Schröder, and China after Deng Xiaoping.	总体来说，在过去三十年间成功的经济体都是那些推行改革和政策，致力于提升结构适应能力的国家：请回想罗纳德·里根（Ronald Reagan）执政后的美国，撒切尔夫人（Margaret Thatcher）的英国，格哈特·施罗德（Gerhard Schröder）的德国以及邓小平的中国。


Spain appears to be in the early stages of restoring a balanced and sustainable growth pattern.	西班牙目前正处于重新实现平衡且可持续增长模式的初期。


One hopes that others will soon follow its example.	惟望其他国家也能纷纷仿效。


What’s Stopping Robust Recovery?	什么在阻止复苏？


MILAN – The growth map of the global economy is relatively clear.	米兰—全球经济的增长地图已经相对清晰。


The US is in a partial recovery, with growth at 1.5-2% and lagging employment.	美国正在局部复苏之中，增长率为1. 5—2%左右，但就业萎靡不振。


Europe as a whole is barely above zero growth, with large variations among countries, though with some evidence of painful re-convergence, at least in terms of nominal unit labor costs.	欧洲作为一个整体只是略有增着那个，国家间差别很大，尽管有证据表明痛苦的再趋同正在发生，至少从名义单位劳动力成本看是如此。


China’s growth, meanwhile, is leveling off at 7%, with other developing countries preparing for higher interest rates.	与此同时，中国的增长正在向7%靠近，其他发展中国家在准备提高利率。


Many advanced economies must still address the end of the pre-crisis growth pattern generated by excessive domestic demand.	许多发达经济体仍必须克服来自内需过剩的危机前增长模式的结束造成的后果。


In such economies, that pattern not only typically depended on leverage; it also enlarged the non-tradable side of the economy and shrank the tradable side.	在这些经济体中，这一模式不仅往往依赖于杠杆； 也常常扩大了经济中的不可贸易部门，压缩了可贸易部门。


And yet, given that the non-tradable sector is constrained by its reliance on domestic demand, recovery – if it comes – will depend on the tradable sector’s growth potential.	此外，由于不可贸易部门受其对内需的依赖，复苏——即使到来——将取决于可贸易部门的增长潜力。


To realize that potential, the tradable sector has to re-expand at the margin: as a weakening currency causes imports to fall and real unit labor costs decline as nominal wages flatten out, unemployed labor and capital flow toward external markets for goods, services, and resources.	为了实现潜力，可贸易部门必须在边际上重新扩张：随着货币贬值造成进口下降和实际单位劳动力成本因名义工资稳定而下降，失业的劳动力和资本将流向外部市场追求商品、服务和资源。


This is already happening in the United States, where exports are above their previous peak while imports remain subdued; the current-account deficit is declining; and even net employment in the tradable sector is increasing (for the first time in two decades).	在美国，这一幕正在发生，出口已高于前期峰值，而进口仍然受到抑制； 经常项目赤字在减少；


Indeed, recent data suggest that more than half of the acceleration in US growth is occurring on the tradable side, even though it accounts for only about one-third of the economy.	甚至可贸易部门的净就业也在增加（为二十年来首次）。 事实上，最新数据表明美国增长加速的一大半来自可贸易部门，尽管该部门仅占经济的三分之一。


And that contribution is probably an underestimate, because income generated on the tradable supply side produces income that becomes demand on the non-tradable side – a multiplier effect that crosses the tradable/non-tradable boundary.	而可贸易部门的贡献可能仍被低估了，因为可贸易供给面形成的收入产生了成为不可贸易部门需求的收入，从而形成了跨越可贸易/不可贸易界线的乘数效应。


The US economy is relatively flexible, and this kind of structural adjustment in the private sector occurs reasonably quickly.	美国经济相对灵活，这种私人部门的结构性调整也因此较为迅速。


And yet employment still lags, owing to longer-term factors like labor-saving technology and reconfigurations of global supply chains, in which lower-value-added segments and functions tend to be concentrated in lower-income countries.	但就业仍然萎靡不振，这主要是拜劳动力节约技术和全球供应链重构（低附加值细分市场和功能倾向于向低收入国家集中）等长期因素所致。


One reason the US recovery is only partial is fiscal drag, a lingering effect of the post-2008 downturn, which shifted some leverage to the public sector, resulting in a growing debt burden that has been addressed – controversially so – by immediate austerity.	说美国复苏只是局部性的一个原因在于财政拖累，这是2008年衰退后一直无法摆脱的阴影，2008年衰退将一些杠杆转移到了公共部门，导致债务负担增加，需要立刻采取紧缩来纠正（这一点存在争议）。


But the main problem is that public-sector investment remains well below growth-sustaining levels.	但主要问题在于公共部门投资仍远远低于维持增长的水平。


The hard part of fully realizing potential growth is shifting the composition of domestic demand from consumption to investment without adding leverage.	充分实现潜在增长的难点在于让内需的组成从消费转向投资而不增加杠杆。


That means paying for it on the public-sector side, via taxes and a reduction in household consumption (and in wealth accumulation).	这意味着靠公共部门来偿付，通过征税和减少家庭消费（以及财富积累）实现。


It also means getting the balance between domestic and external demand right, and appreciating the sensitivity of medium- and long-term growth to the composition (and size) of domestic aggregate demand.	这也意味着保持内需和外需的合理平衡，提高中期和长期对国内总需求的组成（和规模）的敏感性。


Against this background, monetary policymakers must be cautious, because low interest rates can shift the growth model back toward leverage and domestic consumer demand, stalling the structural shift to the tradable side that is underway.	在这样的背景下，货币政策必须谨慎，因为低利率可能让增长模式重回杠杆和国内消费需求，阻碍正在发生的向可贸易部门转变的结构性变化。


Several European countries also became too dependent on domestic demand and need to rebalance toward the tradable side.	一些欧洲国家还变得过度依赖于内需，需要偏向可贸易部门的再平衡。


But the challenge for them is much bigger and the process slower.	但它们的挑战要大得多，再平衡过程也慢得多。


In the first decade of the euro, nominal unit labor costs rose sharply in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, while virtually flatlining in Germany.	在欧元的第一个十年中，希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙的名义单位劳动力成本大幅上升，而德国基本保持不变。


Absent the common currency, these divergences would have been accompanied by exchange-rate adjustments – certainly after (and perhaps even before) the pattern of excessive leverage and domestic demand ended.	在没有共同货币时，这一分化将伴随汇率调整——在过度杠杆和内需模式结束之后肯定会发生（甚至在之前就发生）。


But such adjustments cannot happen in a monetary union, so unit labor costs are slowly re-converging via a protracted process of flat nominal wage growth and slowly declining real wages (a process that would be quicker with higher inflation in Germany and Northern Europe).	但在货币联盟中不可能发生这样的调整，因此单位劳动力成本正在通过名义工资增长的长期停滞和实际工资的长期缓慢下降而缓慢地实现重新趋同（如果德国和北欧通胀更高一些，那么这个过程也会更快一些）。


With domestic demand in short supply, this slow road essentially postpones or impedes growth via expansion of the tradable sector.	内需跟不上供给，因此这条慢路实际上通过可贸易部门的扩张延缓或妨碍了增长。


The speed of structural adjustment is also strongly influenced by how easily employment can shift from an economy’s non-tradable to its tradable side and across segments of global supply chains.	结构性调整的速度也深受就业是否能够轻易地从经济的不可贸易部门转移到可贸易部门以及是否能够轻易地在全球供应链的各个细分层次转移的影响。


Countries’ degree of labor-market flexibility varies considerably, and the reforms that increase it are critically important.	各国劳动力市场灵活度大相径庭，增加其灵活性的改革至关重要。


For example, the German reforms of 2003-2006 increased flexibility significantly (though in a more benign global and eurozone setting).	比如，德国在2003—2006年的改革大大地增加了灵活性（尽管它所处的全球和欧元区条件更为有利）。


Much is made of Germany’s large current-account surpluses.	德国巨大的经常项目盈余意义重大。


But, just as the eurozone’s struggling economies have an overvalued currency, Germany has an undervalued one, which tends to produce external surpluses and, by definition, an excess of savings over investment.	但是，正如欧元区深陷麻烦的经济体货币高估，德国面临着货币低估，这会造成外部盈余，根据定义，这必然导致储蓄超过投资。


An undervalued currency also tends to produce an unbalanced growth model of the opposite kind: an outsize tradable sector and insufficient domestic aggregate demand.	低估的货币还会造成相反类型的失衡增长模式：庞大的贸易部门和国内总需求不足。


Because the non-tradable sector in advanced economies tends to create more jobs, this model can lead to an employment problem (even if it is partly masked by cutting hours rather than workers).	由于发达经济体的不可贸易部门可以创造更多的就业，因此这一模式可能导致就业问题（即使这可以通过削减工时而非岗位而得到部分掩盖）。


In principle, Germany could try to boost domestic demand by leveraging up; but, unless the exchange rate adjusts upward to shrink the tradable sector at the margin, doing so would be inflationary.	原则上，德国可以通过增加杠杆提振内需； 但是，除非汇率向上调整从而在边际上抑制可贸易部门，否则这会造成通货膨胀。


The European Central Bank would then have to intervene to maintain the credibility of its commitment to price stability, which is its primary mandate.	欧洲央行将因此不得不出手干预以捍卫其对价格稳定的承诺（其主要使命）的信誉。


It is little wonder that Germany finds it difficult to achieve a sustainable pattern of balanced growth in the eurozone as it is currently configured.	毫不奇怪，德国发现它难以在当前的欧元区结构中实现可持续的平衡增长模式。


Anyone familiar with China’s structural shifts on the supply and demand side will recognize some similarities with the German case.	只要你熟悉中国从供给面向需求面的结构性变迁，就会对德国的情形感到似曾相识。


The main point is that restoring growth requires a careful analysis of structural balance, attention to demand constraints in the non-tradable sector, and a focus on the impediments to expanding the tradable sector.	关键点在于，重塑增长需要对结构性平衡进行仔细分析，注意不可贸易部门的需求约束，并专注于扩张可贸易部门的阻碍因素。


Some of those impediments are supply-side rigidities; others have more to do with bloated domestic demand.	一些阻碍因素在于供给面刚性； 一些阻碍因素与内需过剩关系更大。


Neither can be ignored if robust recovery is to be achieved.	要实现更鲁棒的复苏，两者都不可忽视。


Rebooting China	重启中国增长


MILAN – Despite China’s widely discussed economic slowdown, annual GDP growth remains above 7%, implying little cause for alarm – at least for now.	发自米兰——尽管外界对中国经济减速多有议论，但年度GDP增长依然超过了7%，暗示着——至少目前来说——还没有什么要拉响警报的。


The question is whether the government’s efforts to implement structural reforms and transform the economy’s growth model are working – that is, whether internal imbalances continue to threaten long-term economic performance.	不过问题在于政府在经济结构改革和增长模式转型方面的努力是否凑效——也就是说，内部失衡状况是否依然在威胁长期经济表现。


Given that China remains the global economy’s most important growth engine, the answer matters to everyone.	考虑到中国依然是全球经济最重要的增长引擎，这个问题的答案对大家来都利益攸关。


Assessing China’s economic stability requires considering the conflicts and tensions affecting the country – none of which advances the cause of growth.	评估中国经济的稳定性需要考虑到影响该国的冲突和矛盾状况——两者都不会对增长的动力有所推动。


For starters, China’s territorial disputes with many of its neighbors, including Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, are undermining regional peace, not to mention economic integration.	首先，中国与周边许多邻国（包括日本，越南和菲律宾）的领土纠纷正不断威胁区域稳定，更别提对经济一体化的影响了。


Moreover, China’s relationship with the United States is deteriorating, owing to conflict over America’s foreign-policy “pivot” toward Asia and disputes over cyber security.	此外，由于美国的外交政策“轴心”向亚洲移动以及网络安全方面的纷争，中美关系正在恶化。


China has already restricted access to its market for some US-based technology firms, and more such actions may follow.	中国已经禁止向一些驻美科技企业开放市场，而且这类行动今后将屡见不鲜。


Meanwhile, China’s domestic political system is being shaken up by President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign – an effort that is essential to boosting the government’s accountability and legitimacy as it pursues deep systemic reforms.	与此同时，中国国家主席习近平的反腐运动对其国内政治体系造成了极大震动——对于正在寻求深层次改革的政府来说，采取这一行动来提升自身可靠性及合法性很有必要。


But, at a time of rising international tension, there is a risk that Xi’s campaign could mutate into a broader assault on political dissent attributed to “corrupt” foreign influences.	但在国际紧张局势近一步激化的时期，习主席发动的这场运动也可能异化为对受外国“堕落思潮”影响的政治异见分子的打压扩大化。


Since China launched its process of “reform and opening up” more than three decades ago, it has benefited from its willingness to consider – if not adapt – foreign ideas.	自从中国在30多年前启动其“改革开放”进程以来，该国一直受益于其愿意融合——而非全盘接受——外国思维的意愿。


In many areas – economic policy in a market economy, business management, technology, energy, the environment, and health care, to name a few – selective learning has accelerated China’s development (and benefited the countries that have learned from Chinese experience).	在例如制定市场经济下的经济政策，企业管理，科技，能源，环境和医疗卫生等许多领域的选择性学习加速了中国的发展（也令那些学习中国经验的国家得益）。


Lumping outside influences together with a legitimate anti-corruption campaign would undermine this positive dynamic, with potentially serious consequences for China’s quest to transform its growth model and achieve high-income status.	而将外国影响与一场合法性反腐运动相结合将损害这一积极动力，也可能对中国实施增长模式转型及实现高收入状态的目标带来严重的潜在后果。


The good news is that the data – while incomplete – show progress in China’s economic transformation.	好消息是数据（虽然不完整）显示中国的经济转型进程正在推进。


Weak growth in China’s major export markets (particularly in Europe, North America, and Japan), together with rapidly rising domestic wages and incomes, is driving the tradable part of the economy toward higher-value components in global supply chains.	由于中国的主要出口市场（尤其是欧洲，北美和日本）增长疲软，加上国内工资和收入迅��上升，因此驱动该国经济的可贸易部分向全球供应链的更高价值部分迁移。


Meanwhile, inflation, rising wages, and the renminbi’s nominal appreciation have driven up the real effective exchange rate, though this trend has been tempered, to some extent, by the euro’s persistently high value.	与此同时，虽然实际有效汇率的上升趋势在某种程度上被欧元汇率的持续高位所抵消，但通胀，工资上升以及人民币的名义升值依然推高了该汇率。


How businesses handle this transition – which is already contributing to China’s growth slowdown – will determine the transformation’s progress.	而企业如何应对这一转变——虽然已经导致了中国的经济减速——将决定转型的进程。


China has no choice but to change its growth model.	中国没有选择，只能改变其增长模式。


Its share in global markets is now so large that the economy could be demand-constrained for the first time in four decades.	该国在全球市场的分额是如此巨大，导致这可能是40多年以来该国第一次遭受到需求不足的影响。


The only way to avoid this outcome is by pursuing a balanced program comprising high-return investment, high-value government services, and a higher level of household consumption.	避免这一后果的唯一方式就是寻求一个高回报投资，高价值政府服务和高水平家庭消费三者结合的均衡发展计划。


Public and private investment – which has served as a key driver of China’s growth over the last four decades – can play a central role in expanding domestic demand, but only if returns are high.	公共和私人投资——中国过去四十年中的主要增长驱动力——可以在扩大国内需求方面扮演核心角色，但必须要在高回报的前提下。


While low-return investments generate aggregate demand, they do not increase future income or productive potential, and thus do not foster sustainable growth.	虽然低回报投资能推高总需求，但却无法提高未来收入或者生产潜力，因此也无法孕育可持续发展。


Given this, China’s leaders must use a combination of financial-sector reforms and improved public-sector incentives to increase access to capital in sectors with high potential rates of return.	有见及此，中国领导人必须将金融部门改革和提高公共部门积极性相结合,以增加与高潜在回报部门资金的联系渠道。


In fact, this process is underway with the licensing of new private banks and the development of China’s shadow banking system.	事实上，该进程已经在发放新私营银行牌照与中国影子银行的发展过程中不断得到了推进。


Given the limited capacity of investment demand to drive growth, high-value government services and increased household consumption are also needed.	考虑到投资需求在驱动增长方面能力有限，就需要高价值政府服务以及增加家庭消费来进行辅助。


As it stands, private consumption accounts for an unusually small share of China’s GDP.	就目前情况来说，私人消费占中国GDP的比例异常低下。


But rising wages – partly the result of mandated minimum-wage increases in some regions – are boosting household incomes, and there is already some evidence that the downward trend in consumption’s share of GDP has reversed.	但工资的提升——在某种程度上是由于某些地区提升了最低工资标准——正在拉升家庭收入，同时也有一些迹象表明消费占GDP份额不断下降的趋势已经得到了逆转。


Consider the telecommunications-equipment industry, which has been growing at more than 15% annually in the past couple of years.	以在过去几十年中年均增长超过15%的通信设备行业为例。


Gross merchandise volume in online retail sales is approaching CN¥2 trillion ($316 billion), and growing at a rate of 40-60% annually.	在线零售总额接近2万亿人民币（折合3160亿美元），且年增长率达到40%~60%。


Many other industry segments serving domestic demand are also growing at double-digit rates, suggesting that domestic consumption is already making a more significant contribution to China’s GDP growth.	许多其他服务内需的行业也取得了双位数的增长，表明国内消费已经在为中国的GDP增长做出更重要的贡献了。


But there remains the question of whether consumption share growth is sustainable – that is, whether it is the result of income share growth or rising leverage.	但问题是消费份额的增长是否是可持续的——也就是说，这究竟是收入份额增长还是提高杠杆的结果。


If it is supported by excessive leverage, effectively shifting future consumption to the present, China could face a significant slowdown – or even a major crisis.	如果这一增长是由过度杠杆支撑的，那其实是在将未来的消费挪到现在，中国就将面对一场严重经济减速——甚至可能是一场重大危机。


Leverage has undoubtedly increased at unsustainable rates in recent years.	近年以来，杠杆无疑正以一个不可持续的比率在不断提升。


But, given that debt growth began from a low base, it will not necessarily lead to a crisis – as long as appropriate risk management is in place.	但考虑到债务增长的基数较低，这不一定会引发一场危机——只要进行恰当的危机管理就行。


Most important, shadow banks’ activities must be regulated in a way that enhances transparency and deters excessive risk-taking, while allowing the sector to continue to contribute to financial-sector development by providing savings options to households and credit to small and medium-size firms.	最重要的是，在允许影子银行部门继续通过为家庭提供储蓄选项以及为中小企业融资的方式来为金融部门发展作贡献的同时，也必须以一种增加透明度和遏制过度承担风险的方式来监管其活动。


As for the official banking sector, liberalization of interest rates on deposits, scheduled for 2016, will reduce financial repression and implicit investment subsidies.	而对正式银行部门来说，计划在2016年实施的放宽储蓄利率政策将减少金融压制以及隐含的投资补贴。


That, in turn, should help to rebalance the demand side of the growth pattern.	这也相应会有助于重新平衡增长模式的需求方面。


Such complex structural changes cannot be perfectly synchronized and thus are likely to be accompanied by a dip in growth rates.	这种复杂的结构性变革不可能做到完全同步进行，因此也可能同时伴随着增长率的下滑状况。


The government has expressed a willingness to accept somewhat slower growth in pursuit of a more stable, sustainable economy.	中国政府也表态说愿意用某种较慢的增长来换取一个更稳定可持续的经济。


But whether a slowdown is the start of a trend or a temporary part of a complex transition, will not be apparent from the start.	但减速究竟是趋势的开端还是一个复杂转型的暂时部门，这很难在进程的开端显现出来。


Ensuring that it is the latter will require the patience and discipline – in both domestic and foreign policy – befitting the major transformation now underway.	而如果要实现后者的话，就需要耐心和纪律——在内政和外交两方面政策上——做到与当前进行的重大转型协调一致。


What\u0027s Ailing France?	什么在削弱法国


PARIS – France is gravely ill.	巴黎—法国病得很重。


So ill, in fact, that Standard & Poor’s recently cut its sovereign-credit rating – the country’s second downgrade in less than two years.	有多重？ 标准普尔最近降低了其主权信用评级，这是法国在两年不到时间里第二次遭遇降级。


The decision was accompanied by warnings that the budgetary and structural reforms that President François Hollande’s administration has implemented over the last year have been inadequate to improve France’s medium-term growth prospects.	除了降级之外，标普还对法国的预算和结构性改革提出了警告——总统奥朗德政府在过去两年里所实施的这些措施并没有能够改善法国的中期增长前景。


Now, the pressure is on for structural reforms covering everything from labor markets to taxation.	如今，压力来自于包含从劳动力市场到税收的一切的结构性改革。


While the S&P downgrade was unexpected, it was not exactly shocking.	标普的降级可谓意料之外，但也算不上令人震惊。


The recent downturn in France’s industrial output has created large trade deficits, and is undermining the competitiveness of small and medium-size enterprises.	近期法国工业产出的下降导致了巨额贸易赤字，并破坏了中小企业的竞争力。


Unemployment stands at about 11%, with a record-high 3.3 million workers registered as jobless in October.	失业率在11%左右，10月份更有创纪录的330万工人注册为失业。


At the same time, political crisis is impeding the government’s pursuit of difficult reforms.	与此同时，政治危机妨碍着政府追求艰难的改革。


French leaders have demonstrated an inability to communicate effectively or apply past experiences in analyzing current threats.	法国领导人在有效沟通和利用过去经验分析当前威胁方面显得颇为无能。


Instead, they are resorting to diversionary tactics by engaging in overblown rhetorical battles about minor controversies.	相反，他们玩起了转移注意力的把戏，在细枝末节的争议上大费口舌。


But they cannot ignore their problems forever, and the consequences of delaying the reforms that France needs could be catastrophic.	但他们无法永远忽视他们的问题，推迟法国所需要的改革的后果可能是灾难性的。


And yet, viewed from a broader perspective, France’s problems are largely symptoms of a disease that is affecting the entire global economy (including the European Union’s southern members).	而更广的角度看，法国的问题可以说无非是影响整个全球经济（包括欧盟的南欧成员国）的疾病的症候。


In recent decades, unfettered capitalism has produced significant mutations worldwide.	最近几十年来，自由放任资本主义在全世界造成了重大突变。


For starters, industrialism has become obsolete.	首先，工业化成了陈词滥调。


In the advanced countries, the market for first-time purchases of mass-market goods like cars, refrigerators, and televisions is saturated, while the secondary market for used and reconditioned goods has become much less dynamic, undermining employment in repairs and renovations.	在发达国家，汽车、冰箱、电视等大众市场商品的首次购买市场已经饱和，二手和翻新商品的二级市场早已没有了活力，这破坏了修理和翻新方面的就业。


With no industrial good that still requires a large-scale labor force – and the communications and services industries unable to fill the gap – employment is shrinking and economic growth is stagnating.	不再有工业品还需要大规模劳动力——而通信和服务业又无法跟上弥补缺口——因此失业每况愈下，经济增长停滞不前。


The second mutation stems from excessive shareholder dominance, which has been on the rise for more than three decades.	第二个突变来自过股东主宰力过大，这一趋势已经延续了三十多年。


Gathered into pension, investment, and hedge funds, shareholders can place considerable pressure on companies to extract dividends, using performance-based bonuses to gain executive support for their preferred policies.	以退休基金、投资基金和对冲基金为首的股东给公司施加强大的压力榨取股利、使用基于表现的将近诱使高管支持他们所偏好的政策。


This has led to excessive workforce externalization, high rates of CEO turnover, takeover bids, and restructurings of all kinds – all which have far-reaching consequences.	这导致了过大的劳动力外部化、过大的CEO流动性、过高收购出价和过度的各种重组——所有这些都具有严重的后果。


In OECD countries, the share of salaries in GDP has fallen by about ten percentage points, on average, to roughly 57%.	在经合组织国家，工资占GDP的比重平均下降了约十个百分点至57%。


Cumulative figures for the last 30 years vary from $200-300 trillion.	过去30年来的累计数字大约在200—300万亿美元。


For this reason, consumption – the main driver of economic growth – has stagnated since 2000, while unemployment rates have risen almost everywhere, creating instability that affects even those who still have jobs.	因此，消费——经济增长的主要引擎——自2000年以来便停滞不前，而失业率几乎在所有国家都在上升，甚至给仍保有工作的人也造成了动荡效应。


Capitalism’s third mutation is the extreme financialization of economies and societies.	资本主义的第三个突变是经济和社会的极度金融化。


Financial and industrial managers are compensated at a level that most of the world would struggle even to imagine.	金融和实业管理者所获得的报酬之高超乎世界大部分人的想象。


And the unrestrained expansion of financial markets, notably the proliferation of derivatives, led directly to the crisis that engulfed the Western banking system in 2007-2008.	而金融市场不受约束的扩张——特别是衍生品的繁荣——直接导致了吞噬西方银行系统的2007—2008年金融危机。


Governments, in order to contain the fallout of the crisis, ran up public debt, including in countries whose balance sheets had already been weakened significantly by declining GDP growth.	政府为了收拾危机的残局大量举债，包括哪些资产负债表已经因为GDP增长减缓大受损伤的国家。


In many countries – particularly in Southern Europe – bleak economic circumstances are generating social tension, political apathy, civil unrest, and delinquency.	在许多国家——特别是南欧国家——萧条的经济环境正在引发社会紧张、政治冷漠、国内动乱和违法犯罪。


The persistent specter of climate change only compounds public anxiety.	而挥之不去的气候变化幽灵也在加剧公众焦虑。


This is obviously not the ideal environment for France – not to mention the struggling economies of Southern Europe – to implement difficult structural reforms.	对于法国——更不用说苦苦挣扎的南欧经济体了——来说，这显然不是实施艰难的结构性改革的理想环境。


But, by changing its economic doctrine, Europe can improve its prospects considerably.	但是，欧洲可以通过改变经济思想大大改善前景。


Instead of remaining on the German-led path of orthodoxy – which, through counter-productive austerity and deflation (forcing down domestic wages and prices), has turned stabilization into recession – Europe must develop a growth-based strategy to overcome the crisis once and for all.	欧洲不能继续维持德国领导的正统之路——让稳定变为衰退的反生产的紧缩和通缩（迫使国内工资和物价降低）——而必须发展基于增长的战略一劳永逸地克服危机。


Many economists, including the Nobel laureates Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, advocate precisely such a policy change for Europe.	包括诺贝尔奖获得者克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）和斯蒂格利茨（Joseph Stiglitz）在内的许多经济学家所支持的正是这样的政策变化。


Only by heeding their recommendations, and demonstrating a shared capacity for – and commitment to – long-term thinking, can France and its troubled southern European neighbors finally begin to recover enough strength to do what they must for their long-term health.	只有认真考虑他们的建议，并拿出共同的长期思考和承诺能力，法国及其陷入麻烦的南欧邻国才能最终恢复足够的力量巩固它们的长期健康。


The Age of Violence	暴力时代


PARIS – Global problems are rarely straightforward.	巴黎——全球问题很少能一眼看透。


But, in general, careful analysis of their various facets leads to some understanding of their causes and, in turn, to reasonably promising solutions.	但总体而言，仔细分析问题的方方面面能在某种程度上理解个中原因，从而制定出相对有效的解决办法。


Indeed, the opportunity to analyze such problems regularly is precisely what makes my role as a columnist so gratifying.	事实上，定期分析此类问题也恰恰是我身为专栏作家的满足感所在。


Lately, however, promising solutions have been increasingly elusive.	但最近相对有效的解决方案越来越难以实现了。


Simply put, much of the world is mired in conflict, with little hope of escape.	简言之，世界许多地方都深陷冲突，而且摆脱的希望不大。


In Ukraine, violent clashes between pro-Russian separatists and the police are just the latest development in the country’s deteriorating security situation.	乌克兰亲俄分裂分子和警方之间的暴力冲突只是该国安全局势恶化的最新迹象。


Syria remains locked in a brutal civil war.	叙利亚仍然深陷残酷的内战不能自拔。


And tensions between Israel and Iran over the latter’s nuclear program – not to mention Israel’s decades-old conflict with Palestine – are exacerbating instability in the Middle East, where ten countries, taken together, have become the world’s largest market for weapons, purchasing more new arms annually than China.	以色列和伊朗因伊朗核计划造成的紧张态势，加之延续数十年之久的以巴冲突——导致中东地区动荡局势进一步恶化。 该地区十国合起来已经是全世界最大的武器市场，每年的新增采购武器甚至比中国还多。


Several African countries – Mali, Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Somalia – are engulfed in permanent civil war, leaving citizens without potable water, much less schools, hospitals, and other social infrastructure.	马里、中非共和国、南苏丹和索马里等一些非洲国家都被卷入无休无止的内战，民众连饮水都有困难，更不要说享受学校、医院和其他社会基础设施了。


In Nigeria, the Islamic militia Boko Haram – a glorified gang of criminals – brings disgrace on the Prophet, in the name of whom they abducted more than 200 schoolgirls to sell or use as sex slaves.	尼日利亚的伊斯兰民兵组织博科圣地（其实就是冠冕堂皇的犯罪团伙）给先知带来耻辱，他们以他的名义绑架了200多名女学生用来贩卖或强迫她们提供性服务。


In Asia, China’s military buildup and increasingly assertive approach in pursuing its territorial claims in the South and East China seas – which overlap with claims by Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam – is raising concerns among its regional neighbors.	在亚洲，中国的军事集结和在表达东南中国海领土要求时越来越自信的态度引发了同样对上述领土提出要求的日本、菲律宾、韩国和越南等地区邻国的担忧。


It does not help that China’s economic growth, which provided a powerful boost to the region’s smaller economies in recent decades, has slowed considerably.	还有一个不利因素是中国的经济增长明显放缓，而亚洲地区小规模经济体近几十年来都受到中国增长的有力推动。


China is not the only major emerging economy experiencing diminished growth.	中国并非经济增长放缓的唯一重要新兴经济体。


Brazil, too, is suffering from slow growth, not to mention stubborn inflation and mounting deficits.	巴西也同样出现了增长放缓，更不要说通胀难以抑制和赤字居高不下。


Meanwhile, Latin American countries like Mexico and Colombia remain under threat from drug cartels that sometimes are better armed than the police or the military.	此外，墨西哥和哥伦比亚等拉美国家依然受到贩毒集团的威胁，那些集团的武器装备有时甚至超过警察和军方。


Meanwhile, in the European Union, an election has come to a close.	此外欧盟选举已经告一段落。


But it was an election for nothing; the outcome merely reinforced the growing divide between pro-Europeans and Euro-skeptic populist parties.	但选举结果没有任何意义； 结果只是进一步扩大了亲欧势力和怀疑欧洲的民粹主义政党间难以逾越的鸿沟。


While the global economy may seem to be recovering from the recent crises, it remains fraught with risk, stemming from the $750 trillion in liquidity – up $50 trillion since 2006 – sloshing around in speculative markets.	虽然表面看来全球经济似乎正从不久前的危机中复苏，但仍然充满了风险因素，不确定性主要由750万亿美元的流动性引起——自2006年来增长了50万亿美元——这笔巨额资金在投机市场横冲直撞。


This capital does not finance investments or fuel economic growth; its sole purpose is to reap enormous but unpredictable profits for a select few.	这些资本并没有拉动投资及经济增长； 为少数人谋取不可预测的巨额利润是它唯一的目标。


This bubble, like all bubbles, will burst, triggering a much more severe crisis than that of 2008.	这个泡沫会像所有泡沫那样破裂，由此引发的危机将比2008年严重得多。


At least event organizers are keeping busy.	至少活动组织方都没有闲着。


The United Nations is preparing its 21st climate conference, to be held in Paris in 2015, with world leaders knowing full well that it, too, will end in failure to conclude a comprehensive global agreement.	联合国正在筹备巴黎举办的第21届气候会议，世界领导人完全清楚此次会议将在达不成全球全面协议的情况下宣告结束。


Given the scale of the world’s ecological challenges, our leaders’ incapacity to cooperate effectively on the environment could not be more problematic.	鉴于世界所面临的生态挑战，我们的领导人无力就环境问题有效合作显然问题很多。


For example, at the current rate, the world’s fish resources will be extinguished in the next half-century.	比方说按照目前的速度，世界鱼类资源将在未来半个世纪走上彻底灭绝之路。


Yet Russia, Ukraine, and China recently opposed the establishment of Protected Marine Areas, which are critical to the survival of numerous species.	尽管如此，俄罗斯，乌克兰和中国最近反对设立海洋保护区，而这项举措对众多物种的生存至关重要。


We have only one planet, and we must learn to coexist on it.	我们只有一个地球，因此必须学会和平共处。


Yet the overwhelming feeling is one of chaos and degradation.	但我们最主要的感觉是混乱和堕落。


We cannot afford to wait for world leaders to solve our problems any longer.	我们不能再坐等各国领导人解决我们的问题。


The global public must unite to compel decision-makers to take real action aimed at overcoming obstacles to peace, harmony, and sustainability.	全球公众必须团结起来，迫使决策者采取克服和平、和谐及可持续发展障碍的实际行动。


The first obstacle is international law’s lack of enforcement authority.	首要障碍就是现行国际法缺乏执法机构。


While respecting individual countries’ sovereignty is vital, so is accountability – and that requires some international authority to monitor and punish crimes.	问责与尊重各国主权同样重要——这就需要某些国际机构监督和惩戒违法行为。


The good news is that the global public is increasingly supportive of international intervention in some cases.	好消息是全球公众在某些情况下越来越对国际干预持支持态度。 但我们必须更进一步，要求任何条约都应该制定监督和制裁规则；


But it must go further, demanding that any treaty should include a provision for surveillance and sanctions; that a country’s right to veto intervention be limited according to the amount of time that has passed and the issue at stake; and that measures to protect populations be decided upon by majority vote.	按照时间的长短和所探讨的问题对国家的干预否决权进行限制； 对人类实施保护的措施由多数人投票加以决策。


The second major obstacle is the intellectual demise of what could be called “the science of economics.”	第二项主要障碍是所谓 “经济学知识” 的灭亡。


Nowadays, the banking industry shapes decision-making worldwide, exemplified in its enduring right to unlimited speculation and its capacity to capture profits that are unmatched by any other industry, especially for its senior managers, while exposing the world to overwhelming risk.	今天，银行业决定全球决策，体现在让世界承受多数风险的同时行使其经久不衰的无限投机权利，并为业内高管攫取其他任何行业都难以企及的丰厚利润上。


Instead of allowing a single self-interested sector to dictate the economy’s functioning, policymakers must determine precisely what the acceptable balance is between risky speculative activities and financial stability – and ensure that the financial sector adheres to it.	与其允许某个自利行业决定经济运作，决策者必须确定风险投机活动和金融稳定之间可接受的平衡是什么——并确保金融行业遵守相关规则。


Governments’ emphasis should always be on reducing unemployment, instability, and inequality.	政府应该始终坚持以减少失业、不稳定和不平等为目标。


The third major obstacle to global peace and prosperity is the disappearance of ethics from the functioning of states and markets.	全球和平繁荣的第三个主要障碍是国家及市场运作不再顾及道德。


Governments and multilateral bodies like the UN have gradually been discredited, along with the value systems on which they are based.	各国政府和联合国等多边机构已逐渐丧失信誉，他们赖以立足的价值体系也逐步坍塌。


While major religions retain some value-based authority, most have remained largely silent on the real political, economic, environmental, and security challenges that the world faces.	虽然主要宗教保留了某些价值观方面的权威，但它们大多选择了在世界面临的真正政治、经济、环境和安全挑战面前保持沉默。


Why do Christian churches continue to focus on people’s private behaviors and not on the rules of the social and economic game?	基督教为什么继续关注个人行为，而不是社会和经济的游戏规则？


Why does the Chief Rabbinate of Israel never discuss peace, much less make a statement on what, in the eyes of God, should have priority: a piece of land or millions of human lives?	以色列首席犹太法博士为什么从来没有讨论过和平，更谈不上就上帝眼中的首要问题发表声明，追问究竟是一块土地，还是数百万人的生命更加重要？


Why do Muslim authorities so rarely condemn crimes supposedly committed in the name of the Prophet?	穆斯林当局为什么很少谴责以先知的名义进行的犯罪行为？


Perhaps that will change, too.	这种状况或许也将发生变化。


Pope Francis, for example, appears to be leading the Catholic Church in the direction of greater social engagement.	比如弗朗西斯教皇似乎想引导天主教会加强社会参与。


It is the global public’s duty to take the same route.	全球公众也有义务做出同样的变化。


Taming Europe’s Banks	驯服欧洲银行


PARIS – Last month, the European Commission unveiled its much-anticipated blueprint for banking reform, aimed at reining in risk-taking by the European Union’s largest banks.	巴黎—上个月，欧盟委员会发布了人们期待已久的银行改革蓝图，目标是抑制欧洲最大银行的风险承担行为。


But the proposal has met significant resistance, with some warning that it would erode European banks’ competitiveness, and others arguing that it is inadequate to mitigate banking risks effectively.	但改革方案遭到了巨大的阻力，有人警告它会腐蚀欧洲银行的竞争力，有人指出它不足以有效降低银行风险。


How this debate unfolds will have profound implications for the EU’s future.	这场争论如何展开将对欧盟的未来产生深远影响。


According to Michel Barnier, the EU commissioner spearheading the reform effort, the proposed measures – including regulatory authority to divide banks’ riskier trading activities from their deposit-taking business, and a ban on proprietary trading by the largest banks – would enhance financial stability and protect taxpayers.	根据负责这场改革的欧盟委员米切尔·巴尼尔（Michel Barnier）的说法，改革方案措施——包括强制将银行的高风险交易活动与其揽储业务分离并禁止最大银行开展自营交易——将增强金融稳定性，保护纳税人。


But the draft regulation falls far short of the recommendations made by a high-level expert group in 2012, which included an impermeable wall between banks’ speculative-trading business and their retail and commercial banking activities.	但监管草案的内容与2012年高级别转接小组的建议相去甚远，专家小组的建议包括建立一道绝缘墙，隔绝银行的投机性交易业务和零售及商业银行业务。


Nonetheless, many claim that Barnier’s proposal goes too far.	尽管如此，仍有许多人说巴尼尔的方案走得太远了。


Perhaps the strongest reaction came from Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer, who called the proposals “irresponsible and contrary to the interests of the European economy.”	也许反弹最强烈的的要数法兰西银行行长克里斯蒂安·诺耶尔（Christian Noyer），他称这份改革方案“不负责任，与欧洲经济的利益南辕北辙。 ”


The positions taken in this complex debate do not align neatly with the traditional left-right political spectrum.	在这场复杂争论中采取这样的立场与传统的政治左翼不太合拍。


Barnier is a center-right Frenchman recommending more public control over private banking activities.	巴尼尔是一个中右翼法国人，建议对私人银行业务采取更多的公共控制。


(Indeed, stricter banking regulation has been endorsed by all.)	（事实上，加强银行监管是所有人都同意的观点。


And, while Noyer’s position at the central bank makes him independent, he is championing banking-sector autonomy in a country led by a left-wing government.	）此外，尽管诺耶尔的央行行长地位让他具有了独立性，但他是在由左翼政府领导的法国宣扬银行部门自治。


What is at stake is Europe’s capacity to avoid another financial meltdown – one that could be even more devastating than the 2007 crisis.	这场争论事关欧洲避免可能比2007年危机更加严重的新的金融崩溃的能力。


Of course, to some degree, a capitalist system will always be vulnerable to shocks and crises.	当然，从某种程度上说，资本主义系统总是难免发生震荡和危机。


The question is how to respond to them to minimize the fallout, while bolstering the system’s resilience.	问题在于如何响应震荡和危机，让它们的影响最小化，同时增强系统的恢复力。


In 1929, a crisis among speculating capitalists prompted poorly conceived and excessive reactions, leading to a deep and prolonged depression.	1929年，一场投机资本家之间的危机让人们产生了误判和过度反应，导致了一场深刻的长期危机。


Less than four years later, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s newly elected government passed the Glass-Steagall Act, which prohibited commercial banks from trading securities with clients’ deposits.	不出四年，美国总统富兰克林·罗斯福的新当选政府通过了格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案（Glass-Steagall Act），禁止商业银行用客户的存款交易证券。


By forbidding investment banks from holding cash deposits, Glass-Steagall helped to support more than a half-century of financial stability after World War II.	格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案还禁止投资银行收取现金存款，从而帮助维持了二战后半个多世纪的金融稳定。


This – together with the gold exchange standard, which ensured that credit did not exceed the economy’s productive capacity – contributed to sustained global economic growth.	这一法案与汇率金本位（保证了信用量不会超过经济的生产力）一起，为保持全球经济增长起了很大作用。


Everything changed in 1971, when US President Richard Nixon, unable to contain the fiscal deficit resulting from spending on the Vietnam War and expanded social-welfare programs, abolished the dollar’s direct convertibility to gold.	1971年，一切都发生了改变。 美国总统理查德·尼克松因为无法解决因越南战争和社会福利计划扩大所带来的财政赤字，宣布美元不再与黄金保持直接可转换的关系。


The resulting exchange-rate, interest-rate, and commodity-price volatility continues to this day.	由此引起的汇率、利率和商品价格波动一直延续至今。


The financial sector has since made every effort to design instruments that protect against price fluctuations, to transform private debt into tradable financial securities, and to gain access to speculative markets.	此后，金融部门将全部精力都花在了设计能规避价格波动、将私人债务转化为可交易金融证券并进入投机市场的金融工具上。


But these efforts were conducive to fraud and delinquency, and thus spurred a wave of new financial crises – in Europe in 1992, in Asia in 1997, and in Russia in 1998 – as well as a recession in Europe and the United States in the early 2000’s.	但这些努力成了欺诈和不当行为的温床，也引来了��的金融危机潮——1992年的欧洲危机、1997年的亚洲危机和1998年的俄罗斯危机，以及21世纪初欧洲和美国的衰退。


Two other destabilizing developments emerged in the last quarter of the twentieth century: a strong incentive to use debt to prop up demand, and a shift toward financing public debt through private institutions at market prices, under the pretext of fighting inflation.	二十世纪后二十五年还出现了其他两大破坏性趋势：用债务来提振需求的强烈激励以及以抵抗通胀为幌子转向私人机构以市场价格为公共债务融资。


These trends boosted public-debt burdens, while flooding the global financial system with liquidity generated by private banking activities that were unconnected to transactions in the real economy.	这两个趋势增加了公债负担，与此同时，与实体经济交易无关的私人银行活动所产生的流动性充斥着全球金融系统。


As a result, by 2006, global liquidity amounted to more than twice the value of world GDP.	结果，到2006年，全球流动性增加到世界GDP价值的两倍以上。


Add to that the American financial sector’s untenable subprime and securitization activities, and it is not surprising that the next two years brought the global financial system to the brink of outright collapse.	而美国金融部门大肆开展次贷和证券化活动，毫不奇怪，在加下去的两年中，全球金融系统濒临彻底崩溃。


To prevent the crash from triggering another Great Depression, governments intervened with massive taxpayer-funded bailouts, causing public-debt burdens to swell further, reaching unsustainable levels in many developed economies.	为了防止崩盘引发新的大萧条，各国政府以巨量纳税人出资的援助计划干预市场，导致公债负担进一步增加，许多发达经济体的公债水平到达到了不可持续的水平。


Making matters worse, the US, the United Kingdom, and Japan began implementing quantitative-easing policies – that is, they began printing money – in an attempt to sustain GDP growth.	更糟糕的是，美国、英国和日本开始实施量化宽松——即开始印钱——以维持GDP增长。


Through all of this, governments have strengthened bank regulation only slightly, leaving key issues like liquidity creation, exposure to derivatives, and tax avoidance largely unaddressed.	做完了所有这些，政府并没有将银行监管强度提高多少，流动性创造、衍生品风险暴露和避税等关键问题大多没有解决。


Today, 98% of the $750 trillion in global liquidity is in speculative markets.	如今，全球流动性总量为750万亿美元，其中98%位于投机市场。


Like all bubbles, this one is bound to burst.	与所有泡沫一样，这个泡沫也注定要破灭。


The European Commission has acknowledged the danger, declaring that the only way to mitigate it is to separate the real economy from speculative markets by preventing banks from being involved in both.	欧盟委员会已经认识到这一危险，宣布唯一的降低风险之法是阻止银行同时涉足实体经济和投机市场，从而实现后两者的分离。


But, according to Noyer, such a move would not work in the eurozone, where banks’ profits depend largely on their risky activities.	但是，在诺耶尔看来，这一方案在欧元区不会起作用，因为欧元区银行利润严重依赖高风险行为。


If those activities move to the UK, the eurozone economy will suffer considerably.	如果这些行为转移到英国，欧元区经济将严重受损。


From a short-term perspective, Noyer’s position is largely correct.	从短期看，诺耶尔的看法大体上是正确的。


But the profits that would be lost remain lower than the potential costs of another major financial crisis.	但可能失去的利润仍比再来一次金融大危机的潜在代价更低。


The eurozone’s member states should never again have to face such costs.	欧元区成员国不应该再一次面对如此大的代价。


Microfinancing Climate Resilience	小额信贷适应气候


LONDON – Vulnerable communities face the brunt of climate change – from rising sea levels and extreme weather events to prolonged severe droughts and flooding.	伦敦——弱势群体不得不面对海平面升高、极端天气事件和长期严重干旱洪水等气候变化的冲击。


According to the World Bank, without effective mitigation measures, climate change could push more than 100 million people into poverty by 2030.	据世界银行预测，如果不采取有效的缓和措施，气候变化到2030年可能导致超过1亿人返贫。


To help the most vulnerable communities become more resilient to the effects of climate change, financial institutions should support small and medium-size enterprises.	要想帮助最弱势群体适应气候变化的影响，金融机构必须对中小企业给予支持。


In emerging economies, SMEs account for as much as 45% of employment and up to 33% of GDP – and these numbers are significantly higher when informal SMEs are included.	中小企业在新兴经济体占就业人数的45%和GDP的33%——如果加上非正规中小企业上述比例还要高得多。


When an SME builds up its own climate resilience, it can have cascading effects in the community around it.	如果中小企业建立其自身的气候适应能力，就可以在周围群体中产生连锁效果。


Unfortunately, SME owners generally have trouble securing bank loans, and instead must turn to informal lending and alternative funding sources to support their businesses.	不幸的是，中小企业主普遍很难得到银行贷款，因此为了支撑企业不得不借助非正规贷款和其他资金来源。


According to the World Bank, 50% of formal SMEs lack access to formal credit, and the total credit gap for both formal and informal SMEs is as high as $2.6 trillion worldwide.	据世界银行统计，50%的正规中小企业无法获得正规贷款，全世界正规和非正规中小企业资金缺口总额高达2. 6万亿美元。


While the gap varies considerably among regions, it is particularly wide in Africa and Asia.	尽管不同区域差异很大，但非洲及亚洲地区的资金缺口尤为严重。


Microfinance can close this gap by providing the small loans that SMEs need to get off the ground and thrive.	小额信贷可以提供中小企业启动和成长所需的小额贷款，从而弥补上述资金短缺。


According to the OECD, microfinance institutions, including national foreign-aid agencies, banks, credit unions, and nonprofit organizations, already provide basic financial services to more than 100 million of the world’s enterprising poor, 90% of them women.	按照经合组织统计，包括国家对外援助机构、银行、信用合作社和非营利机构在内的小额贷款机构已经在为1亿多世界贫困创业者（其中90%是女性）提供基础金融服务。


The role of microfinance in boosting SMEs’ climate-change resilience needs to be more fully defined.	需要更全面界定小额信贷在提高中小企业气候变化适应能力方面所起的作用。


In Africa, Asia, and Latin America, microfinance has enabled SMEs to invest in drought-resistant crops, build better irrigation systems, and purchase climate insurance to protect incomes when crops fail because of too much – or too little – rainfall.	在非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲，小额信贷已经在帮助中小企业投资耐旱作物、改进灌溉系统并在降雨过多——或过少的情况下购买气候保险以保护收入。


These projects already have a proven track record.	上述项目已经建立了良好的记录。


According to a review by the OECD, 43% of microfinance activities in Bangladesh in 2010 had strengthened the resilience of communities.	经合组织一份审核文件显示，2010年孟加拉国43%的小额信贷活动都强化了群体抗灾能力。


These projects include lending programs for weather-resistant housing and drought- and salt-tolerant seeds, and they enhanced climate-change resilience.	这些项目包括为能抵御气候变化的住房及耐干旱盐碱的种子提供贷款，从而实现群体气候变化适应性的增强。


In Nepal, microfinance is supporting disaster relief and preparedness, crop diversification, and improved access to irrigation.	在尼泊尔，小额信贷正在支持防灾准备、作物多样化以及改善灌溉。


Microfinance can also help SMEs transition to low-carbon business models, by financing their efforts to adopt renewable energy sources and shift to sustainable production and supply chains.	小额信贷还可以帮助中小企业过渡到低碳商业模式，为他们采用可再生能源和转向可持续生产及供应链建设提供融资支持。


Microfinance is not the only solution, and it certainly has its critics.	小额信贷并非是唯一的解决方案，肯定有人对小额信贷提出批评意见。


To allay concerns about money being poorly spent, microfinance institutions should reward SME owners who use loans to finance climate-change resilience and renewable-energy projects.	为了缓和资金使用不善所引发的担忧，小额信贷机构应当奖励那些利用贷款建设气候变化适应性及发展可再生能源项目的中小企业主。


This need not be an act of corporate social responsibility.	这倒不一定是体现企业社会责任的行为。


In fact, according to the Business and Sustainable Development Commission, which I chair, such an approach is in microfinance institutions’ own self-interest.	事实上，据我本人任主席的商业和可持续发展委员会统计，这样的做法也与小额信贷机构自身的利益相符。


The private sector should understand that the climate crisis is also an opportunity, especially with regard to SMEs.	私营领域应当了解气候危机同样是一次机会，尤其是对中小企业来说。


In fact, some in the private sector already recognize this.	事实上，私营部门不少人对此已经有了清醒的认识。


GSMA – a trade group that represents hundreds of telecoms operators, and whose director general, Mats Granryd, is a member of the Business Commission – and its members are facilitating microfinance in rural areas.	一个代表数以百计电信运营商的贸易团体GSMA其总干事马茨·葛瑞德同样就职于商业委员会——该委员会委员正全力以赴推进农村地区的小额信贷工作。


With mobile phones, farmers can quickly find information ranging from seed prices to weather patterns, and have immediate access to the funds they need to complete transactions.	农民可以借助手机迅速找到从种子价格到天气模式等各项信息，并能立即申请到他们完成交易所需的资金帮助。


This mobile-enabled information leads to better decision-making, saving the farmers money and boosting their resilience to extreme-weather patterns and droughts.	这种源于手机的信息提高了决策能力，为农民节约了资金并增强了他们对极端天气模式和干旱的适应度。


And of course mobile providers benefit as well from operating in an expanded rural market.	当然，移动运营商也能从扩大农村市场运营中得到好处。


There are also opportunities in peer-to-peer lending networks, whereby online services match lenders directly with borrowers.	P2P贷款网络同样充满了机会，上述网络借助其在线服务将贷款人与借款人直接组合。


P2P micro-lending platforms such as lendwithcare.org, Lendico, and RainFin have proved popular, and could re-energize the microfinance community and provide wider access to loans for SMEs in developing countries.	事实证明像 lendwithcare. org、Lendico和RainFin这样的P2P小额信贷平台很受欢迎，可以为小额信贷群体重新注入活力，并为发展中国家的中小企业提供更多的贷款机会。


Financial products like weather derivatives – which insure the harvests and enterprises of SMEs and some of the world’s poorest people – also have potential.	像天气衍生品这样的金融产品——为收成、中小企业活力和世界最贫困群体提供保险——也有很大的潜力可挖。


If the world is serious about mitigating the worst effects of climate change, especially its disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities, both the public and private sectors should support efforts to extend microfinancing to SMEs.	如果世界真想缓和气候变化所带来的最恶劣影响，特别是其对弱势群体造成的不对称影响，那么公共和私营部门都应该支持为中小企业提供小额信贷的工作。


Those on the front line of protecting lives and livelihoods can’t go it alone.	那些奋战在保护生命和生计一线的人不能单打独斗。


The Arab World’s Vanishing Christians	正在消失的阿拉伯世界基督徒


PRINCETON – This Christmas, like every Christmas, thousands of pilgrims and tourists will travel to the Middle East to celebrate the holiday in the land of the Bible.	普林斯顿—今年圣诞节和所有的圣诞节一样，成千上万的朝圣者和游客将前往中东，在《圣经》的土地上庆祝节日。


In Bethlehem, the birthplace of Jesus, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem will lead a midnight mass, while in Syria – where some Christians still speak dialects of Aramaic, similar to the ancient language Jesus spoke – celebrations are likely to be subdued, curtailed by the dangers of a war that is tearing the country apart.	在耶稣降生地伯利恒，耶路撒冷的拉丁宗主教（Latin Patriarch）将领衔子夜弥撒，而在叙利亚——那里的一些 基督徒仍说着类似于耶稣所说的古代语言的阿拉姆语——庆祝活动可能会有所抑制，受到正在分裂这个国家的战争的威胁。


At a time when the Middle East is aflame with sectarian strife, the observance of the Christian holiday is a sad reminder that the region’s distinctive religious, ethnic, and cultural diversity is rapidly disappearing.	如今，中东处处燃烧着宗派斗争之火，遵守基督教节日仪式令人悲哀地提醒人们，该地区与众不同的宗教、伦理和文化多样性正在迅速消失。


At the beginning of the twentieth century, Christians made up roughly 20% of the Arab world.	二十世纪初，基督徒占阿拉伯世界人口的20%左右。


In certain areas – including southern Egypt, the mountains of Lebanon, and southeastern Anatolia – they formed an absolute majority.	在某些地区——包括埃及南部、黎巴嫩山区和安纳托利亚（Anatolia）东南部——基督徒更是占据绝对多数。


Today, just 5% of the Arab world is Christian, and many of those who remain are leaving, forced out by persecution and war.	如今，只有5%的阿拉伯世界人口信仰基督，许多基督徒正在因迫害和战火而离开。


Jews, too – once a vital presence in cities like Cairo, Damascus, and Baghdad – have all but disappeared from the predominantly Muslim parts of the Middle East, relocating to Israel, Europe, and North America.	犹太人也曾经是开罗、大马士革和巴格达的重要居民，如今他们也从中东各主要穆斯林地区消失了，前往以色列、欧洲和北美定居。


Even in Muslim communities, diversity has been dwindling.	甚至在穆斯林社区内部，多样性也在下降。


In cities like Beirut and Baghdad, mixed neighborhoods have been homogenized, as Sunni and Shia seek shelter from sectarian attacks and civil war.	在贝鲁特和巴格达等城市，混合社区纷纷被同化，因为逊尼派和什叶派都在寻求宗派攻击和内战的庇护所。


The waning of diversity in the Middle East goes back more than a century, to the bouts of ethnic and religious cleansing that took place during the Ottoman Empire, including the murder and displacement of 1.5 million Armenian and Syriac Christians in eastern Anatolia.	中东多样性的丧失可以追溯到一个多世纪前奥斯曼帝国时期频发的种族和宗教清洗，包括阿纳托利亚东部150万亚美尼亚和叙利亚基督徒被杀戮和驱逐事件。


After the empire’s collapse in 1918, the rise of Arab nationalism placed Arabic language and culture at the center of political identity, thereby disenfranchising many non-Arab ethnic groups, including Kurds, Jews, and Syriacs.	1918年，奥斯曼帝国灭亡，阿拉伯民族主义的崛起使阿拉伯语和阿拉伯文化成为政治身份的核心，剥夺了许多非阿拉伯民族群体的公民权，其中包括库尔德人、犹太人和叙利亚人。


Many Greeks who had been living in Egypt for generations, for example, lost their livelihoods in the 1950s, when President Gamal Abdel Nasser, the great standard-bearer of pan-Arabism, nationalized privately owned businesses and industries.	比如，20世纪50年代，伟大的泛阿拉伯主义旗手纳赛尔（Gamal Abdel Nasser）总统对私人所有的企业和行业实施了国有化，导致许多世世代代生活在埃及的希腊人失去了生计。


Others were forced to flee the country altogether.	其他民族被迫离开了埃及。


The rise of political Islam following the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War in 1967 dealt another blow to religious minorities.	1967年阿拉伯-以色列六日战争后兴起的政治伊斯兰教是对宗教少数派的又一沉重打击。


By promoting Islamic revival as a solution to the region’s ills, Islamism led to the marginalization of non-Muslims, including groups that had played outsize roles in the region’s economic, cultural, and political life for centuries.	伊斯兰教将树立伊斯兰教敌对势力作为解决地区弊端的方法，从而导致非穆斯林的边缘化，其中包括许多几百年来在地区经济、文化和政治生活中扮演重要角色的群体。


As a result, in places like Egypt, Christians have faced harsh social discrimination and violence, sometimes at the hands of the nominally secular state.	结果，在埃及等地，基督徒面临着严峻的社会歧视和暴力，有时连名义上的世俗国家也对他们进行打击。


The Arab Spring upheavals have given rise to grave new challenges to cultural and religious diversity in the Middle East.	阿拉伯之春剧变对中东的文化和宗教多样性提出了新的严峻挑战。


Many of the authoritarian regimes now under threat of collapse cultivated the support of minorities.	许多如今面临倒台危险的极权政权培养着对少数群体的支持。


This was especially true in Syria, where the Alawite-dominated Baath Party fostered ties to Christians and other small communities by presenting itself as a bulwark of secularism and stability in the face of a supposedly threatening Sunni majority.	叙利亚尤其如此，阿拉维派主导的阿拉伯社会复兴党（Baath Party）与基督徒和其他少数群体建立了关系，把自己打造成抵挡住假想中的逊尼派多数威胁的世俗主义和稳定的捍卫者。


Now that Syria’s Sunnis have risen up against their Alawite rulers, Christians’ loyalty to the regime has become a liability, even a danger.	如今，叙利亚逊尼派已经揭竿而起反抗阿拉维派统治者，基督徒对阿拉维派政权的忠诚变成了一种负担甚至危险。


In some corners, Christians are regarded as complicit in the government’s brutal crackdown, making them targets for attack.	在某些地方，基督徒被视为政府残酷镇压的同谋，因此也成为攻击目标。


The rise of the Islamic State over the last year has sparked even more violence against minorities.	过去一年中伊斯兰国的崛起掀起了针对少数群体的更多暴力。


Powered by a fundamentalist Wahhabi ideology and a boundless appetite for bloodshed, the Islamic State seeks a return to an imagined pre-modern caliphate that subjugates Shia and treats non-Muslims as second-class citizens.	伊斯兰国信奉原教旨主义的瓦哈比派思想，他们极度嗜血，目标是回归想象中的前现代哈里发帝国，征服什叶派并将非穆斯林打为二等公民。


When the Islamic State captures a city, its fighters give Christians the choice of paying a medieval tax known as the jizya, converting to Islam, or being killed.	每当伊斯兰国攻占一座城市，就会让基督徒做出选择，要么支付一笔称为“jizya”（人头税）的中世纪税收并皈依伊斯兰教，要么被杀。


Many simply flee.	许多人只能逃之夭夭。


The Yazidis of northern Iraq – whose plight on Mount Sinjar was much publicized this past summer – are even less lucky.	伊拉克北部的雅兹迪人（Yazidis）更加倒霉。 他们受困于辛佳尔山（Mount Sinjar）的故事在今年夏天引起了广泛报道。


The Islamic State regards them as pagans, and therefore, undeserving of the protections traditionally accorded to Christians or Jews under Islamic law.	伊斯兰国把他们视为异教徒，因此他们不能根据传统伊斯兰教法如基督徒或���太人一样获得保护。


As a result, many Yazidis are murdered or enslaved.	结果，许多雅兹迪人被杀戮或沦为奴隶。


In addition to persecuting minorities, the Islamic State has set about erasing all physical traces of religious diversity.	除了迫害少数群体，伊斯兰国还准备抹除一切宗教多样性的实体痕迹。


Its forces have demolished Sufi shrines, Shia mosques, Christian churches, and ancient monuments they consider to be remnants of a corrupt and profane past.	伊斯兰国武装毁掉了苏菲派神庙、什叶派清真寺、基督教堂以及其他他们认定为腐朽和亵渎的历史遗迹。


Western governments’ protection of ethnic and religious minorities in the region has been a controversial matter for more than a century, and it remains so today.	一个多世纪以来，西方政府对该地区种族和宗教少数群体的保护一直是一个争议话题，至今仍然如此。


Many Sunnis, for example, accuse America of favoritism: the United States intervenes to protect Kurds, Yazidis, and Christians in northern Iraq, they say, but does little to stop the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Sunnis in Syria.	比如，许多逊尼派指责美国的偏袒——他们说，美国干预保护伊拉克北部的库尔德人、雅兹迪人和基督徒，但对叙利亚数十万逊尼派惨遭屠戮无动于衷。


In fact, America’s complicated history of church-state relations at home has made it reluctant to intervene on the part of any religious groups abroad, especially when the population is small.	事实上，美国本国复杂的宗教-国家关系史使其不愿干预任何外部宗教群体，特别是这一群体的人数很少的情况。


The end of diversity in the Middle East is a tragedy not only for those who have died, fled, or suffered.	中东多样性的末日不仅仅是死者、逃亡者和受难者的悲剧。


The region as a whole will be worse off as a result of their absence.	整个地区都会因为多样性的缺失而每况愈下。


Minorities have historically served as brokers between the Middle East and the outside world, and if they disappear, the region will lose an important class of cultural, economic, and intellectual leaders.	历史上，少数群体承担着中东与外部世界联系桥梁的作用，如果他们消失了，中东地区也将失去重要的文化、经济和知识领导者阶层。


How a society handles ethnic and religious diversity can tell us a great deal about its capacity to negotiate disagreements and transform pluralism from a liability into an asset.	一个社会如何对待种族和宗教多样性在很大程度上体现了它协商分歧、将多元主义从负债转变为资产的能力。


Yet diversity is all too often considered a source of weakness in the Middle East.	但多样性往往被视为中东弱势的根源。


It should be considered a strength, and one that is worth protecting.	事实上，它应该被视为一种优势，一种值得保护的优势。


Who’s Winning the Middle East’s Cold War?	谁是中东冷战的赢家？


LONDON – A cold war is taking place in a very hot place.	伦敦——冷战正在一个非常炎热的地方上演。


A key component of the sectarian competition between Shia and Sunni Islam in the Middle East is geopolitical, with Iran facing off against Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies in a struggle for regional dominance.	中东什叶和逊尼派伊斯兰教宗派竞争的一个关键部分是地缘政治，伊朗对抗沙特阿拉伯及其海湾盟友以期获得地区主导权。


As with the original Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, the conflict does not involve direct military confrontation between the main rivals, at least not yet.	像苏联和美国之间的原版冷战一样，冲突至少到目前为止还未涉及主要对手间的直接军事对抗。


It is being fought diplomatically, ideologically, and economically – especially in the oil markets – and through proxy wars, such as the conflicts in Syria and Yemen.	冲突主要集中在外交层面、思想层面和经济层面（特别是在石油市场），以及通过叙利亚和也门冲突等代理人战争。


There are few problems in the wider Middle East that cannot be traced back to the power rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.	广大中东地区鲜有问题无法追溯到沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的权力竞争。


For the moment, the Iranians seem to be riding high.	目前，伊朗人似乎顺风顺水。


Following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision to agree to an international deal limiting Iran’s nuclear capability to peaceful purposes, Western sanctions have been all but removed.	继最高领袖哈梅内伊决定同意接受限制伊朗核能力仅用于和平目的的国际协议后，西方几乎已经取消了制裁。


Now that it is once again acceptable to do business with Iran, its ailing economy is set for a rebound.	现在和伊朗做生意重新成为合法，伊朗糟糕的经济状况注定会反弹。


Meanwhile, Iran’s creeping de facto annexation of parts of Iraq – astonishingly, with American acceptance – continues because no one except the so-called “Islamic State” has the stomach to stand up to it.	此外，伊朗继续偷偷摸摸地事实吞并部分伊拉克领土——令人惊讶的是这种做法得到了美国的认可——因为除所谓“伊斯兰国”以外没有人愿意站出来和伊朗对抗。


Iran also has an overwhelming manpower advantage, with a population of an estimated 77 million, compared to Saudi Arabia’s 28 million.	伊朗在人力资源方面还占有压倒性的优势，总人口约为7700万，而沙特阿拉伯仅有2800万。


And while its army is far less well equipped than its rival’s, it is much larger.	尽管伊朗军队比竞争对手装备要差，但规模却要大得多。


Moreover, Iran’s main Arab ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has been given a reprieve as the conflict in his country drags on without conclusion.	不仅如此，伊朗主要的阿拉伯盟国叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德已经得到了喘息之机，而叙利亚冲突则一拖再拖没有结果。


This has left the Saudis feeling abandoned and vulnerable.	这些都让沙特人因为被遗弃而感到脆弱。


They believe that their great traditional ally, the US, betrayed them by concluding the nuclear deal with Iran.	他们认为最大的传统盟友美国与伊朗签署核协议是对他们的背叛。


Meanwhile, they fear that the chaos in neighboring Iraq has exposed them to chronic strategic risks.	同时，他们担心邻国伊拉克的混乱已经让他们遭受到长期的战略威胁。


The Saudis are also recoiling under a barrage of criticism of their Wahhabi brand of Islam, which is widely blamed for incubating extremism and inspiring terrorism.	外界共同批评沙特的伊斯兰瓦哈比教派也让沙特有所退缩，该教派因为培养极端主义和煽动恐怖主义而遭到广泛的谴责。


Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s human rights record – including the denial of elementary rights for women – is under constant scrutiny.	不仅如此，沙特的人权纪录——包括剥夺妇女最基本的权利——正在接受经常性的审查。


Against this background, the Kingdom is taking the fight to its enemies.	在这样的背景下，沙特王国正在向敌人发起猛攻。


King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is the country’s above-the-fray ruler, but his son, Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, currently wields much of the power.	萨勒曼·本·阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹国王是国家无可争议的领袖，但其子穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼·萨乌德王子目前掌握着大部分权力。


As Minister of Defense, Mohammad has continued the Saudi policy of backing anti-Assad rebels in Syria, in concert with Turkey, while unleashing a war on pro-Iranian tribesmen in Yemen (at an enormous humanitarian cost).	身为国防部长，穆罕默德继续在土耳其的配合下，执行沙特支持叙利亚反阿萨德叛军的政策，同时对也门亲伊朗的部落势力发动战争（因此付出的人道主义代价异常惨重）。


He has also backed, if not instigated, an increase in domestic repression, and has launched an economic offensive against Iran – the consequences of which have been seen, until recently, in plunging global oil prices.	他还支持、甚至鼓动加强国内镇压，同时对伊朗发动了经济上的进攻——此次进攻的后果直到不久前还表现为全球油价的暴跌。


In early May, Saudi Arabia’s longstanding oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, was replaced by Khalid al-Falih, an ally of Mohammad’s.	5月初，默罕默德的盟友哈立德·法利赫取代长期任职的阿里·纳伊米出任沙特的石油部长。


The reshuffle is an indication of Mohammad’s determination to use oil prices as a weapon against Iran and its ally, Russia.	上述权力更迭预示着默罕默德决心利用石油价格作为武器对伊朗及其盟国俄罗斯发动进攻。


As the world’s swing producer, with boundless reserves of cheaply extractable oil, Saudi Arabia can flood or throttle the market at will.	作为世界影响力最大的生产国，拥有可以廉价开采的无限石油储备的沙特可以随意淹没或挤压石油市场。


And for now, the Saudis are flooding the market.	而现在，沙特人正在淹没市场。


They are seeking to rein in Iran and Russia, both of which need higher oil prices to sustain economic growth.	他们试图遏制伊朗和俄罗斯，两者都需要较高的油价才能维持经济增长。


And they are hoping to bankrupt the US shale-oil producers that have reduced America’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil.	沙特还希望击垮减少美国对中东石油依赖的页岩油生产商。


As Mohammad recently declared, the Kingdom doesn’t care about oil prices; “$30 or $70 – they are all the same to us.”	默罕默德最近宣布沙特王国不关心油价； “30美元还是70美元对我们来说都一样。


Iran and Russia, by contrast, need a barrel of oil to be worth at least $70.	”相比之下，伊朗和俄罗斯则需要每桶油售价至少在70美元以上。


The US oil industry has proved more adaptable and resilient than expected; cheaper shale fields have opened even as old ones have closed.	事实证明美国石油业比预期更有弹性、适应性也更强； 尽管老的页岩油井关闭，但新的更廉价的页岩油井却正在开张。


But the Saudi oil offensive has helped convince Iran and Russia to drag Assad, kicking and screaming, to the negotiating table.	但沙特这一轮石油攻势已经帮助说服伊朗和俄罗斯将又踢又叫的阿萨德拉回到谈判桌上。


Mohammad’s new economic plan, Vision 2030, unveiled in May, is another front in the economic war, designed to show that Saudi Arabia is immune to the domestic economic pressures afflicting Iran and Russia.	默罕默德的新经济计划2030年远景规划于5月出台，是旨在向外界展示沙特阿拉伯不受困扰伊朗和俄罗斯的国内经济压力影响的另一条战线。


The plan calls for economic diversification and envisages the establishment of a huge sovereign wealth fund to cushion the impact of lower oil revenues that the ruling class has traditionally used to purchase social peace.	该计划要求经济多样化，并设想成立巨额主权财富基金来减轻统治阶级传统上用于购买社会和平的油价降低的影响。


The Saudi strategy is not without its costs.	沙特的战略也不是没有成本的。


Gulf remittances of around $10 billion a year to Egypt (itself under increasing economic pressure and a dizzying fall in tourist receipts after recent terrorist attacks) have been scaled back to around $3 billion.	海湾每年对埃及约100亿���元的汇款（埃及国内正承受着越来越大的经济压力以及恐怖袭击后旅游人数令人目不暇接的减少）已经缩减到约30亿美元。


And funding to Lebanon has been cut almost completely.	而对黎巴嫩的资金援助几乎已经完全取消。


And yet the long-term outcome of this cold war is not hard to predict.	但这次冷战的长期结果其实不难预测。


Iran and Russia can never be more than foothold powers in the Arab world.	伊朗和俄罗斯永远只能在阿拉伯世界勉强立足。


The Shia might be able to maintain influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon (through Hezbollah), but they will be unable to compete more broadly.	什叶派或许可以在伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩（通过真主党）保持影响力，但他们无法在更大的范围内展开竞争。


Some 90% of Arabs are Sunni Muslims, and thus potential Saudi allies.	约90%的阿拉伯人都是逊尼派穆斯林，因此都是沙特的潜在盟友。


The Saudis can afford to be more mature, and less suspicious than they have been.	沙特完全可以表现得更加成熟，避免像过去那样疑心很重。


The US should take steps to reassure them – while never easing up pressure to improve human rights and implement political and economic reforms.	美国则应该采取措施对其进行安抚——同时继续要求他们改善人权并落实政治和经济改革。


Managing Compromise in the Middle East	在中东地区管理妥协


CAIRO – The Middle East, and especially the Arab world, is experiencing a period of fundamental change and even more fundamental challenges.	开罗——中东地区特别是阿拉伯世界正在经历一个面临根本变化甚至更根本挑战的时期。


But the region’s ability to meet the many challenges that it faces has been complicated by national, regional, and international disagreements about what form change – both across the region and in individual societies – should take.	但国家、地区和国际社会对改革形式的歧义导致该地区迎接挑战的环境日趋复杂化，上述分歧包括地区和各国社会应当采取什么样的变革形式。


The international community undoubtedly has a central role to play in supporting social and economic reform in the region, and in assisting governments to find both the will and the way to undertake the necessary changes.	国际社会无疑应在支持地区社会和经济改革方面发挥核心作用，协助政府找到推进必要改革的意愿和途径。


But it is far more important that Arabs themselves adopt a forward-looking perspective in reckoning with the challenges that they face, and that they take charge of their own destiny.	但更重要的是阿拉伯人自己要采取前瞻性视角思考自己面临的挑战，并学会主导自己的命运。


That much became clear with the Arab Spring revolts in 2011.	2011年阿拉伯之春革命的爆发让这个问题变得十分明确。


Even though the region was already being transformed by demographic changes, including rapid population growth, urbanization, and a spike in unemployed, university-educated young adults, the eruption of protests took many Middle Eastern and North African countries by surprise.	尽管区域内人口变化已经带来了重大改变，包括快速人口增长、城市化和受过大学教育的年轻失业人口激增，但抗议的爆发仍然令许多中东和北非国家措手不及。


Arab youths were a major force behind demands for change.	阿拉伯青年是要求变革的主导力量。


So, too, were new digital technologies that freed up information and facilitated communication among ordinary citizens, essentially dismantling the monopolies that many governments held on knowledge and connectivity.	此外，促成变革的还有带来信息解放和促进普通民众交流、并从根本上瓦解了许多政府对知识和联系方式垄断地位的全新数字技术。


But the greatest reasons for disruption have been rooted in the inability of Arab governments and societies to manage effectively the changes sweeping the region, and their excessive dependence on foreign countries to ensure their security.	但破坏性运动爆发的最根本原因是阿拉伯政府及社会无力有效地管理席卷地区的变化，以及他们过度依赖外国势力来保障安全问题。


Many governments, having grown sclerotic and rigid, were quickly outpaced by social and geopolitical forces beyond their control, and have proved unable or unwilling to adapt to any trend challenging the status quo.	很多国家政府变得日益僵化并迅速被它们无法控制的社会和地缘政治力量所超越，并且多年来的事实表明政府不能也不愿适应任何改变现状的趋势。


This also reflects the fact that central features in many governments’ domestic and regional agendas are not even of their own making, but were imposed from outside the region.	这也反映出许多政府国内和地区政策的核心内容甚至并非出自他们自己之手，而是出自某些域外势力。


To move to a more effective, proactive form of governance, Middle Eastern countries need to create a space for genuine politics and civil-society initiatives that redistribute power and foster cooperation.	为逐步采取更有效、更主动的治理形式，中东地区国家需要创造重新分配权力和促进合作的空间，推进真正的政治和民间社会倡议。


The region is facing problems that are simply too complex and deep-rooted to be addressed with isolated, top-down solutions.	中东地区所面临的问题太过复杂、太过根深蒂固，乃至自上而下的孤立政策方案根本无法解决问题。


The creativity within Arab societies must be tapped.	必须挖掘阿拉伯社会的创造力。


Some countries will need economic and social support to create the necessary domestic conditions, while others will need to address outstanding geopolitical issues.	有些国家需要经济和社会支持来营造必要的国内环境，而另一些国家则需要解决一直悬而未解的地缘政治问题。


Consider Tunisia, which many people outside the Middle East see as one of the region’s greatest recent success stories.	以突尼斯为例，地区外很多人将该国视为近期最令人瞩目的成功案例。


To be sure, political factions in Tunisia have set a good example by often compromising with one another in order to create a viable governance structure; but domestic social and sectarian grievances are still very much a part of Tunisian politics.	可以肯定，突尼斯各派政治势力为打造可行的治理结构而时常相互妥协树立了一个好的榜样； 但国内社会和宗派矛盾却依然在很大程度上困扰着突尼斯政治。


The Tunisian government must tread carefully, and it cannot assume that all of its citizens are satisfied with the new arrangements.	突尼斯政府必须认真对待，不能想当然地认为所有民众都对新的安排感到满意。


Creating the space for national, municipal, and even tribal leaders to engage politically is especially important for the region’s more unstable countries, which must, as a first step, limit the availability of weapons that can be used to challenge the authority of legitimate governments.	为国家、市域乃至部族领导创造参与政治的环境对中东地区的动荡国家尤为重要，其中的第一步必须是限制可以用来挑战合法政府权威的武器销售交易。


For example, establishing a functioning government in Libya will require international assistance, including a joint force comprising the United Nations, the Arab League, and the African Union, as well as an arrangement among Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia to monitor and control borders and maritime access.	举例而言，在利比亚成立正常运作的政府无疑需要国际援助，包括由联合国、阿拉伯联盟和非洲联盟组建联合部队，以及在阿尔及利亚、埃及和突尼斯之间制定协议监管和控制边境及海上通路。


Egypt is undergoing its own fundamental sociopolitical transformation.	埃及国内正在发生根本性的社会政治转型。


Lacking a culture of political compromise, the breakdown of central authority in 2011 was not surprising.	由于缺乏政治妥协的文化，2011年中央权力机构的瓦解并不令人感到惊奇。


Egypt now must restore a broad, constitution-based consensus on the fundamental economic and social rules of the game, which will require all stakeholders in government and civil society to demonstrate a real willingness to reach agreements that account for the legitimate needs of everyone.	埃及现在必须就经济和社会领域的根本游戏规则恢复以宪法为基础的广泛共识，要求政府和民间社会的各利益相关方表现出考虑全体民众合法需求并达成协议的真正诚意。


To help things along, Egyptians should seek ways to use new technologies to include all constituencies in the debates that must shape this process.	为推动局势取得进展，埃及人应当设法利用新技术确保所有选民都参与决定改革进程的辩论。


Syria – which has become a true humanitarian disaster, with no end in sight – poses the most severe test of the region’s ability to compromise and reconcile.	叙利亚已经成为真正的人道主义灾难，而且这场灾难还看不到尽头——叙利亚问题以最严峻的方式考验着地区的妥协和协调能力。


Because the conflict is so complex, it will allow no clear military victor.	因为冲突背景太过复杂，不允许哪一方取得压倒性的军事胜利。


Not even the great powers that are now involved there, the United States and Russia, can manage the transition to peace alone.	就连美俄等现在卷入叙利亚问题的大国也无法靠一己之力完成向和平的过渡。


Of course, the US and Russia will be indispensable to guide the reshaping of the political and military landscape, through sanctions, military force, or the power of political persuasion.	当然，美俄将不可避免地通过制裁、军事力量或政治说服来指导重塑政治和军事格局。


But any viable and lasting peace in Syria will require the cooperation of a large number of actors.	但任何可行和持久的叙利亚和平都需要大量相关方的合作。 具体来讲，这需要美俄；


Specifically, it will require a multidimensional bargain: between the US and Russia; among Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran; and between the Syrian opposition and supporters of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.	海湾国家，尤其是沙特阿拉伯和伊朗； 以及叙利亚反对派和巴沙尔·阿萨德总统政权的支持者之间达成某种多维度交易。


The need for broad cooperation is apparent across the region, where problems are deep-seated and, therefore, cannot be resolved with simple, quick fixes.	全地区显然需要广泛合作，因为问题根深蒂固，不能以简单、快速的方式彻底解决。


Dynamic, peaceful societies will never emerge across the Middle East unless all of their citizens embrace the lost art of compromise and embark on a consensual process of nation building.	除非全体民众都接受久已被遗忘的妥协艺术并着手启动协商一致的国家建设进程，否则生机勃勃的和平社会永远无法在中东地区建立。


This will undoubtedly take time and patience, and it will require governments to determine their own destiny and deter regional adventurism by some Arab states.	这无疑需要时间和耐心，需要政府决定自己的命运，并阻止某些阿拉伯国家的区域冒险主义。


To help the region meet the myriad challenges it faces, the international community should pursue a three-pronged approach: first by strengthening Middle Eastern countries’ governing institutions and putting them on a path toward self-sufficiency; second, by committing unconditionally to preserve and respect the region’s nation-state system; and third, by launching a concerted effort to end the violence in the region and create the conditions for new political processes to get off the ground.	国际社会应采用三管齐下的办法，协助解决中东面临的无数难题：首先是要强化中东国家的管理制度，并促使其走上自给自足的正轨； 其次要无条件地保留和尊重该地区的民族国家制度；


Bloodshed, division, and hopelessness sow the seeds for terrorism and extremism.	流血、分裂和绝望埋下了恐怖主义和极端主义的种子。


Consensus building, compromise, and cooperation within and among Middle Eastern and Arab societies must be the watchwords for banishing those destructive forces from our lives.	在中东和阿拉伯社会内部及各国间建立共识、达成妥协和合作必须成为将这些破坏力量彻底赶出我们生活的标语。


Closing the Middle East’s Education Deficit	填补中东的教育赤字


NILE DELTA – About 60 miles north of Cairo’s Tahrir Square – the epicenter of the Egyptian uprising in 2011 – there is a secondary school students call “the prison.”	尼罗河三角洲—在埃及解放广场，也就是2011年埃及骚乱的震中以北大约60英里的地方，有一所被学生们称为“监狱”的中学。


A deformed box of concrete packed with dilapidated classrooms, the school is pockmarked with age and neglect.	这是一栋外观奇特的水泥建筑，里面散布着破败的教室，到处都是年久失修和不受关注的痕迹。


One teacher in the sleepy Nile Delta village morbidly quips that it doubles as a morgue.	一位这个冷清的尼罗河三角洲村庄的教师戏称它是双倍太平间。


“We never saw a revolution here,” he said a few months ago, withholding his name for fear of losing his job.	“我们从未在这里看到革命，”他在几个月前说道，但决绝透露名字，因为害怕会因此丢掉工作。


“A lot of the hope we had is now dead…it was killed.”	“我们曾经拥有的很多希望现在都死了……被杀死了。 ”


The plight of Egypt’s public schools is a critical indicator of how Egypt’s revolution has failed its people.	埃及公立学校的困境是埃及革命令其人民失望的关键指标之一。


Outside observers saw the popular rebellion against Hosni Mubarak’s regime as a struggle for democracy over dictatorship; the generals who once again rule Egypt portray it as a fight for secularism that was hijacked by radical Islam.	外部观察者看到反对穆巴拉克政权的民变是为了民主而推翻独裁； 再次掌握埃及大权的将军们将革命描述成为了从极端伊斯兰教手中夺回世俗政权的斗争。


In fact, it was a revolt for human dignity, for a better life for ordinary citizens.	事实上，这是一场为了人的尊严、为了普通公民生活得更好而进行的革命。


Without education, that hope is stillborn, not only in Egypt but across the Middle East.	没有教育让希望胎死腹中，不仅埃及是如此，整个中东都是如此。


According to the United Nations, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa are depriving more than 13 million children of an education.	据联合国数据，中东和北非的持续冲突让1,300万多儿童辍学。


But it’s not just in war-torn Syria and Yemen where youth are systematically neglected; shortcomings abound in relatively stable countries such as Egypt and Jordan.	但年轻人被系统性忽视的情况不仅仅局限在叙利亚和也门等战火纷飞的国家； 埃及和约旦等相对稳定的国家情况也很糟糕。


Inadequate education goes hand in hand with the region’s unemployment crisis.	教育不足与该地区事业危机息息相关。


According to the International Labor Organization, the Middle East had the world's highest youth unemployment rates in 2014, with 46% of women and 24% of men out of work.	据国际劳工组织数据，2014年中东h年轻人失业率为全球最高，46%的女性和24%的男性没有工作。


This toxic combination of poor education and high youth unemployment leaves millions of young people lingering in a purgatory that American University professor Diane Singerman calls “waithood.”	拙劣的教育和高企的年轻人失业构成了致命组合，让数百万年轻人在美利坚大学（American University）教授戴安妮·辛格曼（Diane Singerman）所谓的“等待期”（waithood）炼狱中饱受煎熬。


The term describes the prolonged adolescence that young people must endure until they can afford marriage, the region’s institutional and cultural gateway to societal recognition, not to mention sexual activity.	“待业”一词描述了年轻人在结得起婚之前所必须经历的漫长的青少年时期。 结婚是该地区社会认同（乃至性生活）的制度和文化分水岭。


Unfortunately, governments and international institutions regard education and unemployment as development issues, not political or security issues.	不幸的是，政府和国际机构将教育和失业视为发展问题，而不是政治或安全问题。


The US gives Egypt $1.3 billion in annual military aid (second only to Israel), but just $250 million for civilian projects and programs.	美国每年给埃及13亿美元军事援助（仅次于给以色列的数字），但民用项目和计划的援助只有2. 5亿美元。


Supporters of military assistance argue that weapons systems are needed to fight affiliates of Al Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State in the Sinai and to maintain American influence with Egypt’s generals.	军事援助的支持者认为武器系统是打击西奈半岛基地组织和所谓的伊斯兰国设施、保持美国对埃及将军们的影响力的必要条件。


Yet, unless Egyptian youth have hope and opportunity, security assistance is only a Band-Aid.	但是，除非埃及年轻人拥有希望和机会，否则安全援助只能是权宜之计。


Long-term security depends on a government’s willingness to provide adequate public goods and services.	长期安全取决于政府提供充足公共品和服务的意愿。


Suppose the United States and the International Monetary Fund conditioned military and financial assistance to Egypt on straightforward measures of educational progress.	设想美国和国际货币基金组织（IMF）的军事和金融援助以埃及采取直接的教育改进措施为条件。


At the aggregate level, Egypt could improve its performance in global rankings.	在总量层面，埃及可以改善其在全球排名中的表现。


In the World Economic Forum’s latest report on global competitiveness, Egypt was ranked 139th out of 140 countries for quality of primary education.	世界经济论坛的最新全球竞争力报告现实，埃及小学教育质量在140个国家中名列第139名。


Other changes, such as reducing the need for and the cost of private tutoring, would make a material difference in the lives of ordinary Egyptians.	其他变化，比如降低私人教育的需求和成本，将给普通埃及人的生活带来实质性不同。


In Manshiyat Naser, one of Cairo’s poorest neighborhoods, young people like 18-year-old Ashraf Khalil have been studying for Thanaweya Amma, the infamous national secondary school examination.	在开罗最贫困社区之一的Manshiyat Naser，像18岁的阿沙拉夫·哈利勒（Ashraf Khalil）这样的年轻人还为Thanaweya Amma——著名的全国中学考试复习准备。


Their results will mean the difference between a coveted university spot and a life of second-class citizenry in a country with almost no social mobility.	考试结果将决定他们是成为天之骄子式的大学生，还是这个几乎不存在社会流动性的国家的二等公民。


“Things are actually worse since the revolution,” Khalil said while hopping on a minibus to a nearby wealthy residential compound where he gardens.	实际上，革命以后情况变得更糟了，“哈利勒说，一边跳上小巴前往他做园丁的富人小区。


He’s trying to make enough money to hire a private tutor for the exam.	他试图攒钱聘请家教。


Indeed, private tutoring has become the de facto Egyptian education system.	事实上，家教已经成为埃及事实上的教育系统。


Some teachers have admitted off the record that they teach the bare minimum in class, so that they can profit from the same students in private lessons.	一些教师私下里承认，他们在教室里出工不出力，以便在家教班中在同一批学生身上赚钱。


According to some estimates, Egyptian families spend more than $1 billion on private tutoring to compensate for poor education – a cost that often amounts to almost a quarter of household income.	据某些估计，埃及家庭需要花10亿美元以上家教费用以补偿拙劣的教育——家教开支常常高达家庭收入的近四分之一。


The US and European governments, which have a vital interest in the stability and prosperity of countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa, could also marshal and support consortia of private investors.	中东和北非国家的稳定与繁荣符合美国和欧洲政府的关键利益，因此美国和欧洲也应该引导和支持私人投资财团。


A few years ago, the Egyptian investor Ahmed Alfi started a virtual classroom called Nafham (Arabic for “We understand”).	几年前，埃及投资者艾哈迈德·艾尔菲（Ahmed Alfi）开办了一个叫作Nafham（阿拉伯语“我们理解”的意思）的虚拟教室。


In an effort to reduce the country’s dependence on private tutoring, the web-based startup provides crowd-sourced educational videos.	这个基于网络的创业项目旨在降低埃及对家教的依赖，提供众包教育视频。


The service now has 500,000 users and offers a Syrian curriculum to service the 50% of that country’s refugee youth who are out of school.	其服务目前已拥有500,000用户，并提供叙利亚课程为埃及50%的辍学年轻难民服务。


But Alfi says it’s been challenging to find outside funding, and he is not alone.	但艾尔菲在寻找外部融资方面遇到了难题。 他不是个例。


Last April, Abdul Aziz al-Ghurair, a billionaire businessman from the United Arab Emirates, launched the Arab world’s largest education fund, allocating $1.14 billion in grants for underserved youth from the region.	去年4月，阿联酋亿万富豪阿卜杜拉·阿齐兹·古赖尔（Abdul Aziz al-Ghurair）成立了阿拉伯世界最大的教育基金，为该地区无法获得充分教育的年轻人提供14亿美元资金。


According to Maysa Jalbout, CEO of the Abdulla al-Ghurair Foundation for Education, the fund hopes to provide scholarships for 15,000 Middle Eastern students over the next ten years.	据阿卜杜勒·古赖尔教育基金会CEO梅沙·贾勒伯特（Maysa Jalbout）透露，该基金希望在未来十年为15,000名中东学生提供奖学金。


Beginning in September, students will receive financial assistance to attend the region’s top four universities; eventually, study at international universities will be funded as well.	从9月开始，学生将收到该地区思索顶尖大学的入学金融援助； 最终，在国际大学学习的学生也能获得援助。


But individual initiatives are not enough.	但个人行动是不够的。


“Efforts need to be systematic and institutionalized,” Jalbout explains. “No one fund can fix these problems….[W]e need all hands on deck.”	“需要系统性和制度化的措施，”贾勒伯特解释说，“没有哪个基金能够解决这些问题……我们需要齐心协力。


For that to happen, the education of Middle Eastern youth must be regarded as a strategic issue, worthy of just as much global foreign-policy attention as the fight against extremist groups.	”为此，中东年轻人教育必须被视为一个战略问题，获得与打击极端组织等量齐观的全球外交政策关注。


The region should be armed with pens, not just swords.	中东地区必须用笔而不仅仅是用剑武装起来。


Education Innovation in the Middle East	中东的教育创新


LONDON – Supporting the millions of newly displaced people of the Middle East demands resources far beyond the capacity of the United Nations, and is a continuous humanitarian-aid challenge for companies, foundations, and public-sector donors.	伦敦——支持数百万最近流离失所的中东民众需要远超联合国提供能力的资源，为企业、基金和公共部门捐助者提出了持续的人道主义援助难题。


While UN peacekeepers are financed by a system of “assessed contributions,” humanitarian aid depends on voluntary donations.	虽然联合国维和人员融资采用“分摊会费”制，但人道主义援助仍然依赖自愿捐款。


Education, which is prioritized below basic survival needs like food and shelter, all too often gets left behind.	教育因为优先顺序排在食品及住所等基本生活需求之下，因此往往得不到所需的资源。


This failure is far more dangerous than it might seem at first glance.	这样的状态比乍看上去更加危险。


In fact, we now confront an education crisis that threatens to leave a lost generation of young people without any hope for a better future.	事实上，我们现在面临的教育危机是一代迷失的年轻人可能没有任何希望创造更美好的未来。


The majority of Syria’s six million displaced children remain out of school, while around 250,000 young people miss out on a college education.	叙利亚六百多万流离失所儿童绝大多数依然没有学上，而无法接受大学教育的年轻人约为250,000。


In war-torn Yemen and Iraq, millions more children are also missing out on school.	在饱受战争蹂躏的也门和伊拉克，同样有高达数百万的失学儿童。


Some may go through all their school-age years without ever entering a classroom.	有些人可能在整个学龄期都没有机会走进学校。


But thanks to the Platform for Education in Emergencies Response, charities, philanthropists, and foundations can unite to help refugee students find higher-education opportunities, and to provide safe havens for lecturers and professors persecuted by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.	但多亏有了紧急状况响应教育平台，慈善机构、慈善家和基金会可以团结起来帮助难民学生寻找机会接受高等教育，并为遭受叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨得政权迫害的教授和讲师们提供安全避难所。


PEER will connect college-ready Syrian refugees with refugee-ready colleges, and it will eventually be a web-based higher-education conduit for displaced students at all grade levels worldwide.	紧急状况响应教育平台可以把想上大学的叙利亚难民和愿意接收难民的大学联系在一起，而且终将成为全世界各年龄段流离失所学生接受高等教育的网络渠道。


PEER is being supported by the Institute of International Education and the Catalyst Foundation for Universal Education, an education charity founded by former New York University President John Sexton.	紧急状况响应教育平台得到国际教育学院和催化剂普及教育基金会的全力支持，该基金会是由纽约大学校长约翰·塞克斯顿（John Sexton）创立的教育慈善机构。


Beyond PEER, the Catalyst Foundation is also looking at projects to improve school auditing, spur social-impact investing in the education sector, and introduce curricula to encourage inter-faith coexistence in the Middle East and worldwide.	除紧急状况响应教育平台外，催化剂基金会同样在审核提升学校审计、促进教育部门投资社会影响的计划，并在中东地区及全世界引入鼓励不同信仰和平共处的课程。


Schools are the first places where we can promote inclusive citizenship in Middle Eastern countries.	学校其实是我们在中东国家提倡包容性公民权利的第一站。


With this in mind, the Catalyst Foundation is assessing pilot civic-education projects in the region – as well as in Eastern Europe, Africa, and the United States – to determine how school curricula can best cultivate inter-faith understanding.	本着这样的宗旨，催化剂基金会正在评估区域内及东欧、非洲及美国的公民教育试点项目——目的是研究学校课程如何才能最有效地培育不同信仰群体间的相互理解。


A large generation of young people growing up in the Middle East and North Africa – soon to number 200 million – would be well served by an educational model that fosters cultural coexistence, especially during a time when certain politicians in the West deny that coexistence is possible.	大量中东和北非长大的青年一代——这个群体的数量很快将达到2亿——将受益于促进文化共存的教育模式，尤其在现在这个西方某些政客否认不同信仰群体可以和平共处的时代。