The World Bank avoids this problem by assuming that the poverty rate of any country without such data matches the region’s average.	世界银行避免这一问题的办法是假设所有没有这类数据的国家的贫困率都是地区平均值。


But this approach has led to North Korea being assigned essentially the same poverty rate as China, even though the former regularly receives food aid from the latter.	但这一办法导致人为认定朝鲜贫困率与中国相当，尽管后者定期向前者提供食品援助。


Second, the World Bank accepts survey data uncritically – even when it conflicts with data from other sources.	其次，世界银行不加鉴别地接受调查数据——即便它与其他来源的数据冲突。


For example, World Bank survey data suggest that India’s per capita household expenditure has grown by only 1.5% annually since the early 1990’s, implying that the average Indian spent $720 in 2010.	比如，世行调查数据表明印度人均家庭支出自20世纪90年代初以来的年增长率仅仅为1. 5%，这意味着2010年印度人均支出为720美元。


But national-income-accounts data show a 4.5% annual rise, on average, over the last two decades, translating into per capita expenditure of $1,673 in 2010 – roughly 2.5 times higher than the Bank’s estimate.	但国民收入账户数据表明过去二十年的平均年增长率为4. 5%，即2010年人均支出为1673美元，比世行的估计高出2.


Likewise, World Bank survey data estimate that the Indian middle class comprises roughly 90 million people, despite more than 900 million cell-phone subscribers and 40 million cars.	类似地，世界银行的调查数据估计印度中产阶级大概有9000万人，尽管手机用户高达9亿多人，汽车保有量也超过4000万。


Such contradictions reflect significant measurement discrepancies, which, in India’s case, could be on the order of hundreds of millions of people.	如此矛盾表明计量手段存在重大差异，在印度的例子中，差异可能高达几亿人的数量级。


The third major challenge is using PPP estimates, measured in national currencies, to convert survey data into global poverty estimates that account for cost-of-living differences between countries.	第三个重大挑战是，将调查数据转换为全球贫困估计值（解释国家间生活成本差异）时用的是PPP估计（用国家货币计量）。


Given that the conversions that the World Bank currently uses are based on an international exercise that was conducted for 2005, they fail to account for recent factors that are significantly affecting the poor and vulnerable, such as much higher prices for staple foods.	世界银行目前使用的转换方法基于2005年制定的国际执行标准，无法解释对贫困和脆弱（比如主食价格大幅上涨）具有重大影响的最新因素。


Furthermore, PPP conversions have little significance for some countries, most notably China.	此外，PPP转换对一些国家作用可以忽略不计，最显著的就是中国。


Rather than permit price surveys in a random sample of locations (required for accuracy), China restricted data collection to a few urban areas.	中国的价格调查并不实行随机地点采样（这是准确性的要求），而是把数据收集地点限制在几个城市区域。


The resulting data showed Chinese prices to be 40% higher than previously thought; Chinese living standards were then revised downward by roughly the same proportion.	由此产生的数据表明中国价格比先前认为的高40%； 中国人生活水平也被向下修正了相同比例。


If taken at face value, the survey data on prices, together with China’s growth rates, would suggest that China was almost as poor in 1981 as the world’s poorest country today, with average personal consumption below the current level of Liberia – another country to which China provides significant aid.	若用面值计算，价格调查数据与中国增长率相结合显示，1981年的中国与如今世界最贫国家一样穷，人均消费水平比利比里亚的当前水平还要低，而利比里亚也是中国提供大量援助的国家。


While the Bank’s latest PPP-conversion rate puts the number of poor Chinese at 173 million, the previous rate would suggest that only 69 million Chinese were living below the poverty line.	世行最新PPP转换率意味着中国贫困人口数量为1. 73亿，而先前的转换率意味着中国仅有6900万人生活在贫困线之下。


With such a flawed system shaping the world’s understanding of poverty, declarations of success or failure carry little meaning.	世界对贫困的认识基于缺陷如此之大的系统，宣布减贫成功或是失败根本毫无意义。


An improved poverty indicator – one that addresses, rather than avoids, the three major problems plaguing global estimates – is urgently needed.	改良贫困指标，使其能够纠正而不是避免破坏全球估计的三大问题是极为紧迫的任务。


Why No Glass-Steagall II?	金融改革为何今不如昔？


MANILA – Eighty years ago this month, Ferdinand Pecora, the cigar-chomping former assistant district attorney for New York City, was appointed chief counsel for the US Senate Committee on Banking and Currency.	马尼拉——八十年前的1月，爱叼雪茄的纽约市前地方检察官费迪南德·佩科拉（Ferdinand Pecora）被任命为美国参议院银行货币委员会总答辩人（Chief Counsel）。


In subsequent months, the hearings of the Pecora Commission featured many sensational revelations about the practices that led to the 1930’s financial crisis.	其后几个月里，佩科拉委员会出席一系列听证，揭露了导致20世纪30年代金融危机的许多骇人听闻的勾当。


More than that, the Commission’s investigation led to far-reaching reform – most famously, the Glass-Steagall Act, which separated commercial and investment banking.	不仅如此，该委员会的调查还推动了广泛的改革，其中最著名的当推《格拉斯—斯蒂格尔法案》。


But Glass-Steagall didn’t stop there. It created federal insurance for bank deposits.	该法案规定，商业银行和投资银行必须分开，但并没有止步于此，还创立了联邦银行存款保险制度。


With unit banking (in which all operations are carried out in self-standing offices) viewed as unstable, banks were now permitted to branch more widely.	由于单体银行（所有运营由自负盈亏的办公室进行）被视作不够稳定，法案允许银行多开分行。


Glass-Steagall also strengthened regulators’ ability to clamp down on lending for real-estate and stock-market speculation.	法案也加强了监管者管控放贷的能力，抑制银行贷款进入房地产和股市投机。


The hearings also led to passage of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.	该委员会的报告还促成了《1933年证券法案》和《1934年证券交易法案》的通过。


Securities issuers and traders were required to release more information, and were subjected to higher transparency standards.	这些法案要求证券发起人和交易人披露更多信息，遵从更高的透明度标准。


The notion that capital markets could self-regulate was decisively rejected.	资本市场可以自我规范的观念基本上遭到了否定。


The contrast with today is striking.	这同今日的情况形成极大反差。


Say what you will about the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, but it is weak soup by the standards of the 1930’s.	人们尽可以提到《2010年多德—弗兰克法案》来辩解，但以20世纪30年代的标准来看，那个法案简直是清汤寡水。


In response to what is widely regarded as the most serious financial crisis in 80 years, it does much less to change the structure and regulation of the US financial system.	在应对被广泛视作八十年来最严重的金融危机之时，它对美国金融体系结构和监管的触动远不如昔。


The explanation is not that the bankers were less well organized in the 1930’s.	这不是因为20世纪30年代的银行家不像今日那么团结一致。


The American Bankers Association, worried about the fees that banks would be obliged to pay, vehemently opposed deposit insurance.	当年，由于担心银行被迫缴纳保费，美国银行家协会强烈反对引入存款保险制度。


The State Bankers Association, to which many unit banks belonged, condemned the provisions designed to facilitate state-wide branching.	而有许多单体银行会员的州级银行家协会则批评，有关规定将导致银行在州的层面上过度扩张。


Nor is it obvious that the bankers suffered from more adverse publicity.	这也不是因为公众对银行家的厌恶今不如昔。


The Pecora Commission hearings were sensational, but it is difficult to argue that the public anger they whipped up was much greater than that which greeted Wall Street’s titans when they testified before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in 2010.	佩科拉委员会报告固然轰动一时，但也很难说， 2010年华尔街大佬们在国会金融危机委员会面前作证所引发的怒火不比当年高涨。


In fact, Pecora examined only one commercial bank, National City Bank, prior to the enactment of Glass-Steagall.	事实上，在《格拉斯—斯蒂���尔法案》生效之前，佩科拉考察的只有一家商业银行——国民城市银行（National City Bank）。


The bank’s chairman, Charles Mitchell, danced around the question of conflicts of interest between his bank’s deposit-taking and securities-underwriting activities.	该行董事会主席查尔斯·米切尔（Charles Mitchell）总是在兜圈子，回避“同时从事收储和证券承销业务是否存在利益冲突”的问题。


In any case, more attention was paid to the revelation that Mitchell had sold 18,000 bank shares to his wife at a loss to evade taxes.	不过，备受公众关注的其实是米切尔将该行18000股股份折价卖给他妻子的避税行径。


To the extent that the hearings focused on a few bad apples, they made the case for systematic reform less compelling.	佩科拉听证把火力集中在少数烂苹果上，使系统性改革变得不那么显眼。


Pecora turned next to the investment banks.	佩科拉接着向投资银行开火。 这一回，调查揭露出，摩根财团（J.


This time, the revelation was that J.P. Morgan & Co. had provided special access to initial public offerings for prominent public figures, including a former treasury secretary and future Supreme Court justice.	Morgan & Co. ）向位高权重的官员提供IPO认购特权，包括一名前财长和一名候任最高法院法官。


But, again, these disclosures did not speak to issues like the desirability of branching or deposit insurance.	但这些猛料也没能给新的分行政策和存款保险加多少分。


However damning, the revelations were no more embarrassing than the knowledge that Countrywide Financial provided mortgages on favorable terms to “friends of Angelo” (powerful figures close to Countrywide’s then-chairman and CEO, Angelo Mozilo) like former Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines and former Senate Banking Committee member Christopher Dodd.	无论多么骇人听闻，当年那些丑闻跟这一次的丑闻相比也是小巫见大巫：美国国家金融服务公司（Countrywide Financial）被曝以优惠条件向“安杰洛的朋友们”（该公司时任主席兼CEO安杰洛·墨齐罗的达官贵人圈子）提供按揭贷款，其中包括房利美前CEO富兰克林·雷恩斯（Franklin Raines）和参议院银行委员会前成员克里斯多佛·多德（Christopher Dodd）。


Another popular argument for the success of 1930’s reform is that Congress had already agreed on a diagnosis of the problem and could build on its own earlier efforts to treat it.	20世纪30年代的改革何以成功，另一个流行的论点是认为，国会当时已就问题的症结达成了一致，正在着手加以纠正。


Senator Carter Glass had been pushing for years for more permissive branching laws and centralized supervision of banks.	参议员卡特·格拉斯（Carter Glass）多年来一直力推更宽松的分行政策和更集中的银行监管。


He had already introduced a bill containing several such measures in January 1932.	1932年，他已经发起了一个包含若干此类措施的议案。


Similarly, more than 100 bills for federal deposit insurance had been proposed in the preceding 50 years.	此前50年里，国会曾提出过100多个支持联邦存款保险的议案。


One, co-sponsored by Representative Henry Steagall, had been passed by the House.	最终，由众议员亨利·斯蒂格尔（Henry Steagall）联署的一个议案得以在众议员通过。


The idea, in other words, was already in the air.	换言之，那些理念当时已呼之欲出。


But this ignores the fact that Steagall was not enamored of more extensive branching, which disadvantaged small banks.	但这一论点忽略了一个事实，斯蒂格尔并不迷恋支持广开分行的政策，该政策对小银行不利。


Glass, for his part, opposed deposit insurance.	而格拉斯则反对存款保险。


The final bill passed only when its sponsors agreed to combine deposit insurance with new banking regulation, creating a package with something for everyone.	议案最终得以通过，恰恰是因为联署人达成一致，把存款保险同银行监管新规绑定在一起，搞出一个谁都有所需要的方案。


In some cases, the reformers were pushing on an open door.	在某些问题上，改革者推的是一扇已经打开的门。


National City Bank and Chase National Bank had already announced that they were liquidating their securities affiliates.	国民城市银行和大通银行（Chase National Bank）在此前已经宣布正在遣散其证券业务部门。


Underwriting had collapsed, and banks were more than ready to get out of the securities business.	承销业务早已崩溃，而银行也迈出了脱离证券业务的脚步。


The Glass-Steagall separation of commercial and investment banking simply validated a transition that was already underway.	《格拉斯—斯蒂格尔法案》的商行、投行分业新规，只不过是认可了已有苗头的一种变迁。


In 2009-2010, by contrast, the big banks were still seeking to maintain their existing range of activities.	在2009~2010年则相反，大银行仍试图维持其混业经营的广度。


This caused the industry to resist strongly efforts to rein in practices like proprietary trading.	整个行业都强烈反对削减业务领域的努力，比如削减不动产交易业务。


Ultimately, the explanation for the passage of far-reaching financial reform can only be the severity of the crisis.	最终，金融大改革的成功只能由危机本身的严重程度来解释。


In the 1930’s, the Great Depression brought the entire economy to its knees.	20世纪30年代的大萧条把整个国民经济打得半死。


The need for root-and-branch reform was undeniable.	彻底改革的需要变得无法否认。


After 2008, by contrast, policymakers succeeded in preventing the worst, which ruled out the sense of urgency that surrounded the Pecora Commission hearings.	而在2008年以后，政策制定者成功防止了最坏事态的发生，结果公众没有感受到像佩科拉委员会作证期间的那种紧迫性。


The ultimate irony is that this very success led to less reform.	最大的讽刺是，正是这一成功导致改革的力度有限。


The Egyptian Struggle and Beyond	埃及的斗争与超越


LONDON – The events that led Egypt’s military to remove President Mohamed Morsi confronted the army with a simple choice: intervention or chaos.	伦敦——一系列事件导致埃及军方胁迫穆罕默德·穆尔西总统下台，军方也因此面临要么干预要么混乱这两个非此即彼的选择。


Seventeen million people in the street is not the same thing as an election.	1，700万人走上街头与选举相去甚远。


But it is an awesome manifestation of people power.	但由此却体现出令人肃然起敬的民众力量。


Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood was unable to shift from being an opposition movement to being a governing party.	穆尔西领导的穆斯林兄弟会没能完成从反对派到执政党的过渡。


Of course, governments govern badly or well or averagely.	当然政府的执政能力有强有弱。


But this is different.	但这次的情况却有所不同。


Egypt’s economy is tanking.	埃及的经济正在遭受重挫。


Ordinary law and order has virtually disappeared.	常规意义上的法律和秩序几乎已经消失殆尽。


Services are not functioning properly.	服务也无法正常提供。


Individual ministers did their best.	内阁各部的部长已经竭尽全力。


A few weeks back, I met the tourism minister, who I thought was excellent and had a sensible plan to revive the sector.	几周前我还见过旅游部长，在我看来他很出色，制定了重振旅游行业的合理计划。


A few days later, he resigned, after Morsi took the mind-boggling step of appointing as Governor of Luxor province (a key tourist destination) someone who was affiliated with the group responsible for the terrorist attack in 1997 – Egypt’s worst ever – in which more than 60 tourists in Luxor were killed.	但短短几天后他就被迫辞职，因为穆尔西不可思议地任命某个和1997年恐怖袭击有关的人担任重要旅游胜地卢克索省的省长职务，1997年袭击是埃及有史以来最严重的恐怖袭击，卢克索省有60多名游客因此而丧生。


Now the army is faced with the delicate and arduous task of steering the country back onto a path toward elections and a rapid return to democratic rule.	现在军方正面临一项微妙而艰巨的任务：引导国家重新选举并快速恢复民主制度。


We must hope that they can do this without further bloodshed.	我们必须期望避免进一步的杀戮。


Meanwhile, however, someone will have to run things and govern. This will mean making some tough, even unpopular decisions.	但即使意味着要做出艰难、甚至是不受欢迎的决策，也必须有人出来履行管理执政的义务。


It will not be easy.	这是一项艰巨的任务。


What is happening in Egypt is the latest example of the interplay, visible the world over, between democracy, protest, and government efficacy.	埃及局势是反应民主、游行和政府效能间相互影响的最新范例，类似的范例在世界其他国家还有很多。


Democracy is a way to decide who the decision-makers will be, not a substitute for making decisions.	民主必须确定由谁来担当决策者，而不是越俎代庖地完成决策任务。


I remember an early conversation with some young Egyptians shortly after President Hosni Mubarak’s downfall in 2011.	我还记得2011年穆巴拉克总统倒台后与埃及年轻人的对话。


They believed that with democracy, problems would be solved.	他们认为民主是解决一切问题的良方。


When I asked what the right economic policy for Egypt should be, they simply said that all would be fine, because now they had democracy; and any economic ideas that they did have were well to the old left of anything that had a remote chance of working.	当我问及埃及应该实行什么样的经济政策，他们只是表示因为有了民主，一切都会向好的方向转化； 即使有些关于经济政策的想法，也摆脱不了哪怕仅有一点奏效可能的原有的政策模式。


I am a strong supporter of democracy.	我是民主的坚定支持者。


But democratic government alone does not guarantee effective government.	但民主本身并不能保证政府有效。


Today, efficacy is the challenge.	如今效率才是真正的挑战。


When governments do not deliver, people protest.	政府未能兑现承诺会引发民众的抗议活动。


They don’t want to wait for an election.	人们不愿等到下次选举才改变现状。


In fact, as Turkey and Brazil show, people may protest even when, by any objective measure, their countries have made huge progress.	事实上，土耳其和巴西活生生的例子表明即便以客观标准衡量国家已���取得了重大的进步，民众仍有可能发起抗议活动。


But, as countries move from low- to middle-income status, people’s expectations rise.	但随着国家从低收入向着中等收入的过渡，人们的期望值也越来越高。


They want higher-quality services, better housing, and good infrastructure (especially transport).	他们需要更高质量的服务、更优质的基础设施（尤其是交通基础设施）和住房。


And they resent – to the point of mobilizing in the streets – any hint that a clique at the top is barring their way.	哪怕有一丁点证据显示统治集团会阻碍他们愿望的实现，他们也会愤怒到上街游行。


This is a sort of free democratic spirit that operates outside the convention that elections decide the government.	这是一种植根于选举决定政府原则的自由民主精神。


It is fueled enormously by social media (itself a revolutionary phenomenon).	它的发展极大地受到社交媒体（其本身也是一种革命性现象）的推动。


And it moves very fast in precipitating crisis.	它能以迅雷不及掩耳之势促进危机的形成。


It is not always consistent or rational.	这种精神并不总能做到连贯或者理性。


A protest is not a policy; and a placard is not a program for government.	抗议并不是一项政策，标语牌也不是政府项目。


But, if governments lack clear arguments with which to rebut protesters, they are in trouble.	可如果政府找不到明确的观点来反驳抗议者，就会陷入到困境之中。


In Egypt, the government’s problems were compounded by resentment of the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology and intolerance.	在埃及，穆斯林兄弟会的意识形态之争和党同伐异加剧了政府的危机。


People came to believe that the Brotherhood was steadily imposing its own doctrines on everyday life.	人们相信穆斯林兄弟会正把自身的教义强加给民众的日常生活。


Across the Middle East, for the first time, there is open debate about the role of religion in politics.	中东地区首次公开辩论宗教在政治生活中所起的作用。


Despite the Muslim Brotherhood’s superior organization, those who support an intrinsically secular approach to government – and this is true in most of the region – are probably in the majority.	尽管穆斯林兄弟会的组织非常严密，但多数地区多数民众仍然支持政府从本质上实现世俗化。


Society can be deeply imbued with religious observance; but people are starting to recognize that democracy works only as a pluralistic concept, requiring equal respect for different faiths and allowing a voice, but not a veto, for religion.	宗教活动可以深深渗透到社会的方方面面，但人们已经开始意识到民主是一个多元化概念，需要平等尊重不同的信仰，并允许就宗教问题发表意见，而不是一票否决。


For a country like Egypt, with its immense and varied civilization, which includes around eight million Christians and a young population that needs to be connected to the world, there is no future as an Islamic state that aspires to be part of a regional caliphate.	对于像埃及这样拥有庞大及多元化文明的国家，约有800万基督徒和年轻人需要与外界接触，渴望成为中东哈里发帝国的一份子对这个伊斯兰国家来讲没有前途。


So what should the West do?	那么，西方国家该怎么办？


Egypt is the latest reminder that the region is in turmoil and won’t leave us alone, however much we may wish it would.	埃及危机让我们看到中东地区依然动荡，无论愿望多么迫切，埃及问题都始终存在着。


Disengagement is not an option, because the status quo is not an option.	因为现状必须改变，放手不管并不是一种选择。


Any decision not to act is itself a decision of vast consequence.	任何无所作为的决策本身都会带来严重的后果。


At its crudest, the West cannot afford Egypt’s collapse.	西方国家最低限度也无法容忍埃及的局势走向崩溃。


So it should engage with the new de facto power and help the new government make the changes necessary, especially with respect to the economy, so that it can deliver adequate performance for Egypt’s citizens.	因此他们必须与新的实际执政者保持接触，帮助新政府尤其在经济领域做出必要的改革，以满足普通民众的经济发展要求。


In that way, it can also help shape a path back to the ballot box that is designed by and for Egyptians. 	这样还有助于重新按照埃及人设计的方式投票解决执政问题。


Engagement is demanded elsewhere in the region as well.	该地区其他地方也需要西方国家的参与。


As for Syria, the worst that can happen is unacceptable: effective partition of the country, with a poor, extremist-led Sunni state in the east, shut out from the sea and the country’s wealth.	叙利亚的最差情况根本不能接受：换句话说即国家陷入分裂，东部是信奉极端主义的贫穷的逊尼派国家，既没有出海口也得不到国家财富。


In that case, Lebanon would be totally destabilized, Iraq further destabilized, and Jordan placed under even greater pressure (which only the king’s courageous leadership is managing to contain, on behalf of us all).	假使这种情况真的发生，黎巴嫩将彻底陷入混乱，伊拉克局势也将进一步恶化，而约旦则要承受更大的压力（只有侯赛因国王代表各方利益的勇敢领导才能勉强控制住局势）。


And what would be left for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to govern would depend on Hezbollah, a terrorist organization, and Iran.	恐怖组织真主党和伊朗将决定叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德仅剩的执政区域。


As for the Islamic Republic, incoming President Hassan Rowhani may want to reach an agreement with the world on the country’s nuclear ambition – or he may not.	至于伊朗伊斯兰共和国，继任总统哈桑·鲁哈尼或许愿意就核野心问题与世界其他国家达成协议——又或许他不愿意。


Either way, ultimate power in Iran still rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.	无论怎样，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊仍然掌握着最终权力。


The world cannot afford a nuclear-armed Iran.	“核武装”伊朗无疑是世界无法承受之重。


And I haven’t even mentioned the challenges of Libya, Yemen, or, further afield, Pakistan, or the plague of extremism now coursing through the northern part of Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Central Asia.	而利比亚、也门或者巴基斯坦所面临的挑战，以及撒哈拉以南非洲及中亚部分地区目前肆虐的极端主义瘟疫还不在此列。


The West’s interests demand that we remain engaged.	西方的利益要求我们继续参与。


We have to make decisions for the long-term, because, in the short term, there are no simple solutions.	我们必须从长期角度进行决策，因为根本不存在短期解决方案。


US Secretary of State John Kerry’s current dedication and drive on the Israeli-Palestinian issue is exemplary: If it matters, act on it, however difficult.	美国国务卿约翰·克里目前的恪尽职守及对以巴问题的态度可以视之为新的典范：如果重要就采取行动，不管会面临多大困难。


A long transition in the Middle East is underway.	中东地区正在经历漫长的转型进程。


It is difficult, time-consuming, and expensive.	这项任务艰巨、耗时，而且代价不菲。


Many in the West believe that it should be someone else’s job to help sort it out.	西方许多人认为应当由别的国家协助来实现这一目标。


But it is our job.	但我们不能推卸责任。


This struggle matters to everyone.	这场斗争关系到所有人的利益。


The good news is that there are millions of modern and open-minded people in the Middle East.	好消息是中东地区有成百上千万开放而现代的民众。


They need to know that we are on their side, that we are their allies – and that we are prepared to pay the price to be there with them.	他们必须知道我们将和他们结成同仇敌忾的盟友，为了帮助他们我们随时愿意付出代价。


Will Programmers Rule?	程序员会统治一切吗？


NEW DELHI – Marc Andreessen made his first fortune writing the code that became Netscape Navigator, the Internet browser.	发自新德里——马克·安德森（Marc Andreessen）通过编写网景浏览器代码赚到了人生的第一桶金。


He is now a venture capitalist who evangelizes about the growing importance of software in business today.	如今他成为了一位风投资本家，致力于宣扬软件在商业上不断提升的重要性。


Indeed, he proclaims that software is taking over the world – that it will be the primary source of added value – and offers the following prediction: the global economy will one day be divided between people who tell computers what to do and people who are told by computers what to do.	事实上，他宣称软件正在接管这个世界——并将成为附加值的主要来源——同时还做出了以下预测：将来有一天全球经济会被分裂为两部分：一边是人操控电脑做事，另一边是人按照电脑的指令做事。


Andreessen’s aim is to shock his listeners – not just for effect, but to get them to do something about it.	安德森的目的是要为他的听众带来思维上的冲击——不仅仅是为了吸引眼球，而是要让人们行动起来。


To stop the world from being divided between a few alpha programmers and many drones, he wants the potential drones to stop taking easy liberal arts courses in college.	为了防止世界被分裂成少数高端程序员和大量工人的两个极端，他希望那些有可能将来沦为机械工人的人不要在大学里修读简单的文科课程。


Instead, he wants them to focus on courses in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM), where the good jobs will be.	相反，他希望这些人能把注意力放在科学、技术、工程学和数学上——这里才是好工作的所在。


But will this solve the problem that he poses?	但如此便能解决他提出的问题吗？


Perhaps not.	也许不能。


Two attributes of software creation allow a few talented programmers to corner the market and take all the associated profits.	软件创建的两个属性允许一些有才华的程序员抢占市场并获得相关的利润。


First, software with a slight edge tends to get a significantly greater share of the available market; and, second, the available market is global, because it costs so little to make an extra copy and send it anywhere in the world.	首先，只要软件拥有微小的优势就能占据极为巨大的市场份额； 第二，市场空间是全球性的，这是因为额外复制一个软件并将其发送到世界各地的成本极低。


As a result, those who are creative and competent enough to write that slightly better search engine will capture the global market.	因此那些有足够创造力和能力去开发一个稍好一点搜索引擎的人就将夺取全球市场。


In this winner-take-all environment, only a small number of those who have taken programming courses will reap a majority of the rents.	在这种赢者通吃的环境下，只有少数学了编程的人才会得到这种利润。


Completing the right preparatory courses is no guarantee of receiving a share of the software jackpot.	但修读了相关的预备课程也并不能保证一定就可以分享这个软件大奖。


Differences in luck and talent among those equally prepared will ensure that the quality of software firms’ products lies on a bell curve, with only a few Googles and Facebooks and many more bored, moderately paid computer technicians helping the average confused person deal with malware.	由于运气与才能的差别，即使各种条件类似，也注定了各个软件公司的产品质量会呈现出钟形曲线分布，一端是谷歌和Facebook这样的少数大公司，一端则存在着大量很多工作乏味、收入普通的电脑技术员，只能帮助一般人解决一下恶意软件的问题。


Put differently, in a winner-take-all world, raising the average level of skills or education does nothing to alter the skewed distribution of income.	换句话说，在一个赢者通吃的世界，提高技能或教育的平均水平对改变倾斜的收入分配一点作用都没有。


So, will anything prevent inequality from widening?	那么还有什么能阻止这种不平等现象继续恶化呢？


The obvious answer is yes.	答案显然是有。


But how society responds will mean the difference between a prosperous world and a world torn apart by slow growth and resentment.	但不同的社会应付方式将带来迥异的结果：一个繁荣的世界，或是一个被缓慢增长和阶级仇恨弄得支离破碎的世界。


Property rights are ultimately sanctioned by society, and, to the extent that they seem to be unfair, society has an incentive to change them.	财产权社一直都得到社会的认可，甚至到了看上去有损公平的程度，社会有改变这一切的动力。


But will society see the software billionaire as having acquired her wealth unfairly, or will it see that wealth as a fair reward for cleverness?	但社会是否认为软件富翁们是不公平地获得财富，还是觉得财富就该给那些聪明人？


The more that everyone has access to the same educational opportunities, the more society will tend to accept some receiving disproportionate rewards.	每个人越是获得同等的教育机会，社会就越倾向于接受某些不成比例的回报。


After all, they themselves have a chance to be winners.	毕竟，每个人都有机会成为赢家。


Interestingly, software may itself reduce the cost of expanding educational access – witness the massive open online courses (MOOCs) offered by companies like Coursera.	有趣的是，软件本身就有可能降低受教育机会增加的成本——像Coursera这类公司提供的大量网上公开课就是明证。


But equal access is probably an unlikely ideal.	然而平等的受教育机会或许是一个不太可能实现的理想。


The other extreme is very unequal access, made more unequal because the wealthy have the time to help their kids with homework and the money to arrange for tuitions, while the poor leave their children watching TV while they work a second job.	另外一种极端就是非常不平等的机会，之所以会变得很不公平是因为富人有时间为自家小孩辅导作业，也有钱支付学费，而穷人在为生计打第二份兼职时只能让自己的孩子看电视。


Will the resentful workers who must follow a computer’s instructions – say, in assembling an order in Amazon’s fulfillment centers – vote to tax the programmers who put them there until the software creators lose the incentive to innovate, leaving society poorer?	那些必须听从电脑指令工作——比如在亚马逊物流中心整合订单——的工人们会不会投票让那些把他们置于电脑指挥棒下的人缴纳高额税金，最终让这些尖端程序员失去了创新的动力，从而使得社会变得更为贫穷？


Or will the rich programmers all migrate to Monaco or Switzerland, taking the brains and rents with them, as society falls apart into barricaded and mutually resentful enclaves and ghettoes?	而富有的程序员会不会带着他们的聪明才智和财富移民到摩纳哥或瑞士，而社会则分崩离析，沦为各自隔离并相互怨恨的富人区和贫民窟？


In reality, many intermediate possibilities exist.	事实上，存在很多中间的可能性。


One is that cultural norms may develop that encourage billionaires to share their wealth, even if they are spared taxation.	其中一种就是文化规范会发展到鼓励亿万富翁分享他们的财富——即使他们不用被征税。


For example, the Giving Pledge is a commitment by some of the world’s richest people, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates among them, to devote the majority of their wealth to philanthropy.	比如，捐赠誓言就是世界上最富有的一群人——包括沃伦·巴菲特和比尔·盖茨在内——把自身大部分财富用于慈善的承诺。


Economic competition may also play a role – if billions are to be made by innovators, more of the most talented get into innovation, so that, even in a winner-take-all world, the winner captures the market for a fleeting moment before someone else takes it away from him.	经济竞争有可能也会起作用——如果创新者能够有数十亿的收益，那么必然有更多有才华的人投入创新，因此即使在一个赢家通吃的世界，所谓的赢家也只能在别人抢走他的市场份额之前享用一小会而已。


The billions to be made today may only be millions tomorrow.	今天能赚到十亿，明天可能就只剩下几百万了。


And values also adjust.	而且价值也会调整。


While a quartz watch keeps time more accurately than the most finely crafted handmade mechanical Swiss watch, the value of a quartz watch has plummeted, while Swiss watches’ value has climbed into the stratosphere.	尽管石英表比最精巧的手工机械瑞士表都走得更准，前者的价值却垂直下降，而后者则成了奢侈品。


Even though they are virtually indistinguishable in appearance, people seem to cherish the knowledge that someone has lovingly crafted their watch.	尽管它们在外表上相差无几，但人们似乎更珍视那些手工精心制作的手表。


So it may well be that the demand for discussing, say, medieval French church music in small classes at a university will grow even as the demand for MOOCs grows.	所以很可能在大学小课堂上讨论中世纪法国教堂音乐的需求将会和对网上公开课程的需求一样不断上升。


Not everyone should heed Andreessen’s exhortation to quit liberal arts programs!	不是每个人都应该听安德森的劝告退掉文科课程的！


That is not to say that his basic concerns are unwarranted.	当然这并不是说安德森的基本观点毫无根据。


Better access for all to fundamental needs like quality education is necessary to make the winner-take-all character of markets more tolerable. But societies may also have to change.	虽然满足所有人对优质教育这类的基本需求可以让赢家通吃的世界变得更容易让人接受，但社会也需要改变。


If we are lucky, the changes will take place spontaneously.	如果我们幸运的话，变化会自动发生。


The Wobbly West	摇摆的西方


CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA – Early in the financial crisis, a major emerging-market investor told me: “This is not a global, but a semi-global financial crisis.”	查尔斯顿，南卡罗来纳——在金融危机刚开始的时候，一位主要新兴市场投资者告诉我：“这不是全球或半全球性的金融危机。


He was right: it really was a crisis of the United States, Europe, and Japan.	”他是对的：这确实是一场美国、欧洲和日本的金融危机。


Among emerging markets, only Eastern Europe was badly hit.	在新兴市场中，只有东欧收到了严重打击。


Indeed, the crisis marks the emerging economies’ overtaking of the major Western countries, with huge consequences for global power, finance, politics, and economics.	事实上，这场危机标志着新兴市场超越了主要西方国家，其全球实力、金融、政治和经济影响将是深远的。


The eurozone sovereign-debt crisis appears to have been the worst-managed financial crisis since Argentina’s default in 2001.	欧元区主权债务危机可谓2001年阿根廷违约以来最为治理不力的金融危机。


The European Union and eurozone leaders have seriously discredited themselves.	欧盟和欧元区领导人的信誉受到了严重损害。


Europe requires institutional changes that are much more fundamental than anything discussed so far.	欧洲所需要基础性制度变革，远远不止目前所讨论的那样简单。


The International Monetary Fund has never bet such huge sums on a single country as it has on Greece.	IMF从未在哪个国家身上投入如希腊那样的巨资。


As a result, the IMF, a custodian of some of the international reserves held by the world’s central banks, risks losing tens of billions of dollars.	结果，IMF作为全世界央行部分国际储备看守人，正在面临几百亿美元的损失。


Is this a responsible use of international taxpayers’ money?	这样使用国际纳税人的钱合适吗？


Would the IMF not have insisted on a much tougher program, with less financing, for any country outside the eurozone?	IMF难道就不能为欧元区之外的国家考虑一下，坚持采取更为严厉的计划，少提供点融资吗？


The apparent explanation for the IMF’s extraordinary gamble is that the managing director who made the decision to support Greece so heavily hailed from the eurozone and, at the time, was barely disguising his ambitions to run for the French presidency – that is, before his arrest in New York on charges of rape.	IMF之所以下了如此重注，一个显而易见的解释是其做出支持希腊决策的总裁就来自欧元区，且当时他意欲竞选法国总统的打算早已众所周知——当然那是在他因强奸罪在纽约被捕之前。


Europeans, moreover, dominate the Fund’s leadership.	此外，欧洲人主导着IMF的领导层。


It is a discomforting conflict of interest that debtors dominate an international institution that lends them vast sums.	这是一种令人不快的利益冲突——债务人主导着一个向他们提供巨额贷款的国际机构。


This mismanagement should disqualify any eurozone policymaker from the IMF’s managing directorship, and yet Christine Lagarde, French finance minister, was named to succeed her compatriot Dominique Strauss-Kahn after his resignation.	如此治理不力应该让任何欧元区决策者远离IMF总裁职位，但在卡恩辞职后，被提名接替他的却是法国财政部长拉加德。


Who would seriously have suggested a Russian to lead the IMF after its financial crash in 1998, or an Argentine after its default in 2001?	你能想象让一个俄国人在其1998年金融危机后来领导IMF吗？ 或者一个阿根廷人在其2001年违约后领导IMF？


Today, the eurozone is equally toxic.	而如今，样欧元区的人来领导IMF与前两者一样危险。


The EU, the United States, and Japan are in fiscal jeopardy, and several countries – Japan, Greece, Italy, and Belgium – have public debts exceeding their GDP.	欧盟、美国和日本正处于财政危机中，一些国家——日版、希腊、意大利和比利时——的公共债务已经超过了GDP。


Increasingly, people recognize that loose fiscal policy was poor economic policy, with serious implications for macroeconomic thinking, politics, and constitutions.	人们逐渐意识到，宽松的财政政策实在是拙劣，对宏观经济思想、政治和制度有着非常严重的影响。


In macroeconomic theory, Keynesianism is due for its second demise.	在宏观经济理论方面，凯恩斯主义者注定要遭遇第二次大溃败。


Milton Friedman’s monetarism delivered the first death blow in the 1980’s, but it did not generate useful policy rules or predictions.	20世纪80年代，凯恩斯主义在米尔顿·弗里德曼的货币主义的冲击下经历了第一次大溃败，但这场溃败并未催生有用的政策规则或预言。


During the crisis, prevailing macroeconomic theory counseled massive fiscal stimulus, thereby aggravating the public-debt crisis.	在当前危急中，流行的宏观经济理论提出要实施巨量财政刺激，结果加剧了公债危机。


The question today is whether macroeconomic theory will render itself as irrelevant as the political economy of socialism, or make useful contributions to economic policy.	如今的问题是，宏观经济理论是否能与社会主义政治经济学划清界限，是否能为经济政策做出有益贡献。


For the time being, elementary fiscal and monetary rules appear more appropriate.	就目前的现状来看，最基本的财政和货币政策更为适宜。


How could people and governments accept these enormous debts and even recommend further fiscal stimulus?	各国政府如何能够接受如此巨量的债务，甚至继续采取进一步财政刺激？


Many public expenditures and budget deficits have no justification other than populism, and the big political loser of the crisis has been European social democracy, Keynesian economics’ political counterpart.	许多公共支出和预算赤字根本没有合理理由，纯粹是民粹主义使然，而在政治上，这场危机最大的输家之一便是欧洲的社会民主主义，即政治学版凯恩斯主义经济学。


All too often, social democracy has amounted to populism, opposing any cuts in public expenditures and even deregulation, which would have enhanced productivity.	社会民主主义很容易转变为民粹主义，反对任何公共支出的削减甚至去监管化（这样做本可以刺激生产率），这样的例子在历史上屡见不鲜。


European voters are now punishing social-democratic parties, which have become weaker than at any time since World War I. Instead, a fiscally responsible center-right alignment of political forces has taken power in all but three of the 27 EU countries.	欧洲选民现在正在惩罚社会民主党，使该派进入了自一战以来最惨淡的时期。 与此相反，在财政上更加负责的中右翼联盟大获全胜，在27个欧盟国家中的24个取得了执政权。


Western democracies have prided themselves on institutional checks and balances, but obviously these mechanisms did not work during the crisis or the preceding boom.	西方民主国家历来喜欢标榜自己在制度制衡方面的优点，但显然，在当前危机以及之前的繁荣期中，这一机制并未起作用。


And they have been a recipe for policy paralysis in America’s long debate about raising the ceiling on its national debt.	而如今，这一机制再一次陷入了瘫痪——美国正在为国民债务上限进行旷日持久的争论。


So, when Chinese and Russians officials attack democracy as such, old questions about democracy’s efficacy and stability are raised anew.	因此，当中国和俄国官员抓住此点���击民主国家时，对民主国家在效率和稳定性方面的质疑再一次浮现了。


There is no denying that advanced democracies largely failed to preempt the financial and sovereign-debt crises, while most emerging economies pursued better economic policies.	不可否认，发达民主国家大体上在此次金融和主权债务危机上失去了主动权，而大部分新兴经济体采取了更好的经济政策。


How can modern Western democracies impose strict fiscal discipline?	现代西方民主如何才能实施严格的财政纪律？


Has the independence of central banks given unelected officials license to print money?	央行的独立性给了非选举官员印钞的权力吗？


How can accountability be imposed?	如何引入审计制度？


How can unrepresentative vested interests be contained?	非代表性的既得利益如何抑制？


Such questions have triggered a wide-ranging constitutional debate.	这些问题引发了广泛的宪政争论。


After the Second World War, many European countries enshrined extensive social guarantees in their constitutions.	二战以后，很多欧洲国家将扩大社会保障奉若神明并写入了宪法。


Now many of these guarantees will need to be thrown out.	如今，这些保障中的多项需要取消。


Instead, a number of European countries are discussing the introduction of stringent fiscal rules into their constitutions, and are contemplating even more far-reaching changes.	事实上，许多欧洲国家正在讨论将严厉财政规则引入宪法，并已开始考虑更多的深入变革。


Excessive fiscal deficits in many Western countries must be reduced.	许多西欧国家过度的财政赤字必须削减。


The average public debt in the eurozone has soared to 85% of GDP.	欧元区平均公债占GDP比率已经超过了85%。


Some European countries can reduce their debt through continuous budget surpluses, as Bulgaria, Finland, Russia, and Sweden have done in the last decade.	一些欧洲国家（如保加利亚、芬兰、俄罗斯）可以用持续的财政盈余来削减债务，而瑞典在十年前就已经这样做了。


Privatization of public corporations and property is another possibility.	另一种方法是将公共公司和产业私有化。


My Petersen Institute colleague Carmen Reinhardt suspects that financial repression will be the main debt-reduction method: governments will rely on regulation and manipulation to force savers to pay down public debt through negative real returns on their bond investments.	我的彼得森研究所同事莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhardt）认为金融抑制将成为债务削减的主要方法：政府将依赖管制和人为操纵，通过债券投资的负实际利率迫使储蓄者来支付公共债务。


Meanwhile, central bankers everywhere ask themselves: why keep ever-larger international reserves in two of the world’s most mismanaged currencies, the US dollar and the euro?	与此同时，其他地方的央行则要扪心自问：为什么要囤积世界上两大治理最不力的货币——美元和欧元——作为国际储备？


However rare changes in reserve currencies have been historically, the current situation is no longer tenable; but a switch could further destabilize the world economy.	不管历史上储备货币发生变化的情况少之又少，但目前的现状显然是不可持续的； 但一旦这一情形真的发生，则会进一步动摇世界经济。


The West’s economic mismanagement will also reduce its military power.	西方经济治理不力还会削弱其军事实力。


At present, the US accounts for half of all global military expenditures, but cuts are due.	目前，美国军费要占到 的一半，但削减已成定局。


Relative US military power is not likely to be this great ever again, and China’s military rise looks as inevitable as its economic success.	美国相对军力不可能永远像现在那样强盛，而随着中国在经济上的成功，其军力也将崛起。


The predicament of the West remains lamentable.	西方的处境令人心酸。


Even so, some economists still advocate more fiscal stimulus.	但即便如此，一些国家仍在鼓吹更多的财政刺激。


Instead, Western leaders need to focus on fixing their state budgets in order to salvage what they can.	西方领导人需要专注于修复其国家预算赤字，以尽力自救。


The Workd Bank\u0027s Anti-Corruption Fight Continues	世界银行的反腐战役继续推进


The recent turbulence surrounding the resignation of Paul Wolfowitz from the Presidency of the World Bank has underscored the need to push ahead with the Bank’s good governance and anti-corruption agenda.	最近围绕世界银行行长Paul Wolfowitz辞职的纷扰凸现了推进世行良好治理和反腐败议程的必要性。


This is necessary not only for the sake of the Bank itself, but, more fundamentally, for the sake of the poor in developing countries, whose access to public services and opportunities for a better life are undermined by weak governance and graft.	这不仅对于世行本身是必要的，从更根本的层面上讲，也是为了广大贫穷的发展中国家的需要。 治理不力和以权谋私严重影响了这些国家的人民获得公众服务和更美好生活的机会。


Some have suggested that the president’s departure is the result of his making too many waves with his anti-corruption agenda.	有人暗示说行长的下台是他在执行自己的反腐败议程时太过激进的结果。


This is simply not true.	但事实却并非如此。


The leadership crisis did not reflect a weakening commitment to the governance agenda either by the Bank’s professionals or by the countries and shareholders with whom we work.	领导力危机并不反映我们对推进治理议程的承诺的弱化（不论是在世行的专业人员或我们与之共事的国家或股东的层面上）。


On the contrary, that anti-corruption/good governance agenda precedes and outlives the person at the helm of the institution.	相反，反腐败/良好治理的议程会继续推进并会超越该机构首脑的任期而持续下去。


The Bank began focusing its efforts on improving governance and combating graft ten years ago.	世行从十年前就开始致力于改善治理和反以权谋私。


Breaking the taboo of never mentioning corruption, in 1996 the Bank’s then president, James Wolfensohn, identified the “cancer of corruption” as a major burden for the poor in developing countries.	1996年，世行的时任行长James Wolfensohn打破了从不提到腐败字眼的禁忌，指出“腐败之癌”是发展中国家穷人的主要负担。


Over the last decade, improving governance and fighting corruption has been seen as a high priority by governments, civil society, the private sector, and the international community.	在过去的十年里，改善治理和对抗腐败成为各国政府、公民社会、私营部门和国际社会的当务之急。


This is reflected in the World Bank’s lending.	这从世界银行的贷款活动中也可见一斑。


The Bank’s loans targeting governance and related areas now amount to roughly $4.5 billion, or almost 20% of total lending.	该行以改善治理和相关领域为目标的贷款现在约45亿美元，几乎占贷款总量的20%。


Corruption is a major obstacle to economic development, costing billions of dollars a year that could otherwise be used to reduce poverty and promote economic growth.	腐败是经济发展的主要障碍，每年造成巨额经济损失。 而这笔资金本可以用来减少贫困和推动经济发展。


For example, the Bank’s recent study The Many Faces of Corruption estimates, that illegal logging causes annual losses of about $10 billion in the forestry sector.	例如，世行在最近的研究报告《腐败面面观》中估计，非法砍伐每年给森林工业造成的损失达100亿美元。


And teacher absenteeism, a major aspect of corruption in education, can lead to direct losses of up to a quarter of a country’s public spending on primary education.	而教师旷课作为教育行业腐败的一个主要方面造成的直接损失可高达一个国家用于初等教育的公共开支的四分之一。


Improving governance and fighting corruption helps countries deliver basic services better and create growth and employment opportunities for the benefit of the poor.	改善治理和对抗腐败有助于各国更好地提供基本公众服务，并为穷人创造更多的增收和就业机会。


That is why we are strengthening citizen and watchdog oversight of public resources in countries like Tanzania, as well as supporting poor people, including indigenous women, in efforts to gain greater access to the judicial system through mobile courts, as we are doing in Guatemala.	这就是为什么我们要在坦桑尼亚这样的国家强化对公共资源的公民监督，以及在危地马拉支持包括土著妇女在内的穷人，使其能够通过流动法庭更好地获得司法系统的帮助。


From enhancing audit institutions in Africa to strengthening procurement procedures in Asia, the Bank’s work to combat corruption is an everyday reality.	从提升非洲的审计制度到强化亚洲的采购流程，世行努力在日常生活中对抗腐败。


On March 20, 2006, the Bank’s Board – representing virtually every country – unanimously approved a new Governance and Anticorruption Strategy that will push the frontiers of Bank work in this area.	2006年3月20日，世行董事会—实际上代表了每一个国家—全票通过了新的“治理与反腐败战略”。 该战略将会极大推动世行在这一领域的工作。


The strategy was the outcome of intensive consultations with governments, civil society, private sector, and development partners in 47 countries, reflecting an unprecedented global consensus on the critical impact of good governance on poverty reduction.	这一战略是世行与47个国家的政府、公民社会、私营部门和发展伙伴深入磋商的结果。 它反映了一种在良好治理和减除贫困的重要影响方面前所未有的全球共识。


The consultations on the strategy and its endorsement have raised expectations that the Bank will intensify its assistance to countries to help them strengthen their good governance efforts.	关于该战略的磋商及其通过提升了人们对世行的希望，即它将加大力度，协助各国强化良好的治理。


The strategy was poised for implementation when the Bank’s leadership crisis struck.	当世行的领导力危机发生时，该战略正好处在付诸实施的关键时刻。


On April 26, 2007, the entire network of governance professionals in the Bank wrote in an open letter to the Board and the President that the leadership crisis was eroding the Bank’s credibility and hampering implementation of this vital agenda.	2007年4月26日，世行所有治理专业人员联名写了一封致董事会和行长的公开信，信中说这场领导力危机正侵蚀着世行的公信力并阻碍了这一至关重要的议程的实施。


Now, the resolution of the crisis has reassured many that the Bank can practice what it preaches.	现在，危机的解决让许多人恢复了对世行言出必行的信心。


The next president of the World Bank will, of course, need to rebuild credibility and deliver on the Bank’s promises to work vigorously with our country partners in the fight for good governance.	当然，世界银行的下一任行长需要重建公信力并履行世行的承诺，与我们的国家伙伴同心协力为推进良好的治理而战。


In fact, there will be no greater challenge than driving the governance and anti-corruption agenda forward.	事实上，没有比推进治理和反腐败议程更大的挑战了。


The next president of the World Bank will have many allies in this fight, not only within the institution, but also among the two billion poor who still survive on under $2 dollars a day.	下一任的世行行长在这场战役中将会盟友众多，他们不仅来自该机构内部，还来自20亿每天生活水平低于2美元的穷人当中。


The World According to Trump	特朗普的世界


PARIS – The word “trump,” according to the dictionary, is an alteration of the word triumph.	巴黎——根据字典释义，“trump”一词是胜利（triumph）一词的变形。


And because Donald Trump, the US presidential candidate, appears likely to become the nominee of the Grand Old Party of Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan, we owe it to ourselves to ask in what sense and for whom he represents a triumph.	因为美国总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普似乎很有可能成为亚伯拉罕·林肯和罗纳德·里根所在的老大党的竞选提名人，我们应该问问自己这场胜利究竟代表的是谁、以及它的意义所在。


One thinks of a segment of the American population angered by the eight years of Barack Obama’s presidency, a group that is now feeling vengeful.	特朗普的胜利可能代表了被巴拉克·奥巴马总统8年执政所激怒的想要复仇的美国人。


And one also thinks of the white supremacist, segregationist, nativist strain represented by former Ku Klux Klan leader, David Duke, whose noisy support Trump was so hesitant to reject last week and for whose constituency Trump may be a make-or-break candidate.	特朗普的胜利可能还代表了原三K党领袖大卫·杜克为首的白人至上、种族隔离和本土主义分子，特朗普上周曾因是否拒绝他们嘈杂的支持而犹豫不决，特朗普在上述选区可能成为“成功或毁灭两者必居其一”的候选人。


One easily gets the sense, when trying to take seriously what little is known about the Trump platform, of a country turning in on itself, walling itself off, and ultimately impoverishing itself by chasing away the Chinese, Muslims, Mexicans, and others who have contributed to the vast melting pot that the most globalized country on the planet has alchemized, in Silicon Valley and elsewhere, into prodigious wealth.	如果我们试图正视对特朗普平台哪怕仅有的那一点点理解，就不难看到我们的国家正在自我背叛、自我封闭，并最终因为赶走曾为这个大熔炉作出贡献的中国人、穆斯林、墨西哥人和其他族裔而陷入贫困，在硅谷和其他地方，我们这个曾经引导全球化的国家成功锻造了这座熔炉，将多民族的创造力转化为巨大的财富。


But, as is so often the case with the United States, there is in the Trump phenomenon an element that extends beyond the American national scene.	但就像美国常常扮演的角色那样，特朗普现象当中存在着超出美国国家场景的元素。


So one is tempted to ask whether Trumpism might not also be the harbinger – or perhaps even the apotheosis – of a truly new episode in world politics.	因此，人们不禁要问特朗普主义为什么不是世界政治开启真正新篇章的预兆——甚至是颂歌。


I watch the head of this Las Vegas croupier, this kitschy carnival performer, coiffed and botoxed, drifting from one television camera to another with his fleshy mouth perpetually half-open: you never know whether those exposed teeth are signs of having drunk or eaten too much, or whether they might indicate that he means to eat you next.	我盯着这个拉斯维加斯赌场庄家的脸，这个庸俗的狂欢派对表演者，他精心整烫过的头发和保养过的脸庞，从一台摄像机飘到另一台摄像机，肉肉的嘴唇永远都在半张着：你永远不会知道那些裸露的牙齿是因为饮酒过量还是饱食终日，亦或是它们意味着你就是下一个猎物。


I listen to his swearing, his vulgar rhetoric, his pathetic hatred of women, whom he describes, depending on his mood, as bitches, pigs, or disgusting animals.	我听着他那些脏话、那些粗俗的豪言壮语，和他对女性的可悲的仇恨，根据当时的情绪，她将女性形容为婊子、蠢猪或恶心的动物。


I hear his smutty jokes in which the careful language of politics has been pushed aside in favor of supposedly authentic popular speech at its most elemental – the language, apparently, of the genitals.	我听着他那些淫秽的笑话，摈弃了政治语言一贯的谨慎，代之以真正低俗流行的生殖器语言元素。


ISIS?	伊斯兰国？


We’re not going to make war against it, we’re going to “kick its ass.”	我们不是要与它作战，我们是要“踢它的屁股”。


Marco Rubio’s remark about Trump’s small hands?	马可·卢比奥评论特朗普的手小？


The rest is not so small, “I guarantee you.”	其余部分可没那么小，“我向你保证。 ”


Then there is the worship of money and the contempt for others that accompanies it.	再有就是拜金主义和随之而来的对他人的蔑视。


In the mouth of this serially bankrupt billionaire and con artist with possible mafia ties, they have become the bottom line of the American creed – so much mental junk food full of fatty thoughts, overwhelming the lighter cosmopolitan flavors of the myriad traditions that have formed the great American pastoral.	在这个可能有着黑道关系的多次破产的亿万富翁和诈骗高手口中，金钱已经成为美国最底线的信仰——这么多裹满脂肪的精神垃圾食品，淹没了构成美国田园生活无数传统的清淡的世界口味。


In the sequence about small hands, even an ear untuned to the subtleties of that pastoral might have caught (though in a version perverted by the abjectly low level of the exchange) the famous line from e.e. cummings, the American Apollinaire: “Nobody, not even the rain, has such small hands.”	在小手系列中，即使不熟悉田园歌曲精妙旋律的耳朵也能捕捉到美国的阿波利奈尔——卡明斯的那句著名的歌词（尽管是低俗且歪曲的变态版本）：“没有任何人有着像你一样的小手，即使雨也一样。 ”


Confronted with this leap forward into coarseness and pettiness, one thinks of Silvio Berlusconi, Vladimir Putin, and the Le Pens, father and daughter.	朝着粗俗和鸡毛蒜皮的飞跃让人不禁联想起贝卢斯科尼、弗拉基米尔·普京和勒庞父女。 国际大势不再是共产主义、而是庸俗和金光闪闪，其中政治版图被压缩到和电视舞台一样大。


One thinks of a new International, not of communism, but of vulgarity and bling, in which the political landscape shrinks to the dimensions of a television stage.	辩论的艺术蜕变为醒目的标语； 民众的梦想沦为夸夸其谈的幻觉；


The art of debate collapses into catch phrases; people’s dreams become bombastic illusions; the economy takes the form of the grotesquely physical contortions of verbally deficient Scrooges who despise anyone who thinks; and striving for self-fulfillment deteriorates into the petty swindles taught in the now-defunct Trump University.	鄙视任何思考的寡言少语的守财奴荒诞地对经济横加扭曲； 追求自我��现已经沦为结业的特朗普大学所传授的琐碎无聊的诈骗手法。


That’s right: an International with a capital I: Globalized corruption in the mutual admiration society of Putin, Berlusconi, and Trump.	确实如此：以大写“I”起头的国际化意味着在普京、贝卢斯科尼和特朗普相互倾慕的社会里出现了腐败的全球化。


In them we see the face of a cartoon humanity, one that has chosen the low, the elemental, the pre-linguistic in order to ensure its triumph.	在他们身上，我们看到了人格化的卡通人物，有意识地选择低俗、卑劣和前语言时代的野蛮来保障胜利的取得。


Here is a universe of fakery in which one consigns to the oblivion of a now-obsolete history the precariousness of the exiles, migrants, and other voyagers who, on both sides of the Atlantic, have built the true human aristocracy.	这是个虚幻变形的宇宙，人们渐渐忘记了过去的历史，忘记了正是来自大西洋两岸那些危险的流亡者、移民和其他航行的旅人开创了真正的人类贵族社会。


In the United States, it is that great people composed of Latinos, Eastern European Jews, Italians, Asians, Irish, and, yes, Anglos still dreaming of Oxford-Cambridge sculls now cleaving the waters of the Charles River.	由拉美人、东欧犹太人、意大利人、亚洲人、爱尔兰人和现在依然对牛津剑桥的双桨滑过查尔斯河河水魂牵梦绕的英裔美国人共同组成了伟大的美国民众。


Berlusconi invented this cartoon world.	贝卢斯科尼发明了这个卡通世界。


Putin intensified its macho element.	普京进一步凸显了它的男性元素。


Other European demagogues are hitching it to the foulest forms of racism.	欧洲其他煽动者都搭这趟便车驶向形式最为恶劣的种族主义。


As for Trump, he gave us his tower, one of the ugliest in Manhattan, with its clunky, derivative architecture, its gigantic atrium, its 25-meter waterfall to impress the tourists – a Tower of Babel in glass and steel built by a Don Corleone from the dregs in which all of the world’s languages will indeed be fused into one.	至于特朗普，他留给我们的是他的大厦，这座大厦是曼哈顿最丑陋的建筑之一，有着模仿得来的笨重的构架、巨大的中庭以及讨好旅游者的25米高的瀑布——这座大厦是一个叫唐·柯里昂的人用钢铁和玻璃建造的巴比伦塔，这样的渣滓通过将世界所有语言汇集在一起而最终形成。


Careful, though.	但一定要小心。


The new language is no longer that of the America we dreamed would be eternal, the America that has sometimes breathed life back into exhausted cultures.	这种新语言不再歌颂永恒的美国梦，也不再歌颂不时能令精疲力竭的文化重新恢复勃勃生机的美国。


It is the language of a country with balls that has said its goodbyes to books and beauty, that confuses Michelangelo with an Italian designer brand, and that has forgotten that nobody, not even the rain, has such small hands.	这个国家的语言竟然告别了书籍和美学，将米开朗基罗和意大利名牌混为一谈，并且忘记了没有任何人有着这样的小手，就连雨也一样。


The Importance of Doing Business	《营商环境报告》的重要性


MADRID – This month, an independent review panel is expected to release its findings regarding the World Bank’s Doing Business report.	马德里—本月，某独立调查委员会将发布其关于世界银行《营商环境报告》的研究结果。


Speculation abounds that the panel might recommend outsourcing Doing Business, removing its rankings of countries for the ease of doing business in them, or even eliminating the report altogether.	据猜测，该委员会可能建议外包《营商环境报告》，取消为营商容易度进行排名，甚至建议取缔该报告。


This challenge is not a new one, as powerful World Bank shareholders have been trying to sink the project since its inception in 2002.	如此挑战并不新鲜，自该报告2002年开始发布以来，世界银行的权势股东就一直在试图取消它。


Now China, the world’s second-largest economy and increasingly influential within the Bank, is seeking to water down the report by eliminating, among other things, its country rankings.	如今，身为世界第二大经济体、在世行影响力与日俱增的中国也在寻求取消该报告的国家排名和其他内容。


(This year, Doing Business ranked China 91st out of the 185 national economies it examined.)	（今年的《营商环境报告》将中国排在185个考察经济体的第91位。 ）


But gutting or cutting Doing Business would be a grave error and would essentially result in throwing a healthy baby out with the bathwater.	但削减或砍掉《营商环境报告》将是一个巨大的错误，不啻于把婴儿和洗澡水一起倒掉。


Its methodology is largely sound, its purposes are valid, and its findings are useful.	该报告所使用的方法大致靠谱，其目的相当合理，其结论颇为有用。


The 2013 report includes quantitative data grouped in 11 sets of indicators, ranging from the ease of starting a business to the availability of credit.	2013年的报告包括了由11组指标组成的量化数据，从创办企业容易度到信用获得容易度无所不包。


The data are compared across economies and over time to rank 185 countries in ten categories of business regulation, such as “Resolving Insolvency” and “Trading Across Borders.”	数据被进行经济体间的长期比较，就商业监管的十个方面——比如“破产清算”、“跨境贸易”等——对185个国家进行排名。


Input from respondents around the world – more than 9,600 this year – influences the report’s conclusions.	全球受访者的回应（今年超过9600个）影响着报告的结论。


Doing Business is not intended to be a comprehensive review of each country’s economy.	《营商环境报告》的目的并不是成为各国经济的全面评估。


Rather, it seeks to provide policymakers with benchmarks that can serve as a starting point for discussion of beneficial reforms.	它的目的是为决策提供基准，成为有利改革讨论的起点。


In fact, the report’s simplicity is the key to its effectiveness.	事实上，该报告有效性的关键来自简洁性。


Doing Business has been a leader in synthesizing subjective and quantitative data to create understandable metrics.	《营商环境报告》是整合主观量化数据形成易明白指标的方面的领导者。


By limiting the total number of indicators studied and producing clear benchmarks, it helps policymakers to define their objectives and to improve the efficiency of regulation in crucial areas.	报告限制被研究指标总数量，提供 明确的基准，有助于决策者定义目标并改善关键领域的监管效率。


Moreover, Doing Business helps to break down barriers – particularly in developing countries – that can discourage the establishment of small and medium-size enterprises, provide opportunities for corruption, and drive small business owners to the informal sector.	此外，《营商环境报告》也有助于消除阻碍中小企业立足、滋生腐败、吧小企业主推向灰色地带的壁垒，特别是在发展中国家。


For example, the data that Doing Business provides can help to generate the political will and public support needed to overcome opposition to competition-boosting measures from entrenched actors that have an interest in maintaining high entry barriers or procedural bottlenecks.	比如，保持高进入壁垒、设置程序障碍是既得利益之所在，而《营商环境报告》提供的数据有助于形成克服既得利益对提振竞争措施的反对所必需的政治意愿和公共支持。


The project has been a rare World Bank success, recording almost 2,000 reforms over the past decade, and has proved to be a valuable tool for policymakers in developing economies to spur reform and enhance investment.	《营商环境报告》是世界银行为数不多的成功领域之一，过去十年录得近2000项改革，并已证明是发展中经济体决策者刺激改革、强化投资的有力工具。


Rwanda, for example, has skyrocketed in the rankings, from 143rd in 2009 to 52nd in 2013.	比如，卢旺达在排名中进步巨大，从2009年的143名升至2013年的53名。


Similarly, as Georgia has climbed to ninth in the rankings, its GDP has risen by more than 200% and foreign investment inflows have increased by nearly 300% since 2003.	类似地，自2003年以来，随着格鲁吉亚在排名榜上升至第九，其GDP上升了200%以上，其外国投资流入上升了进300%。


Of all of the economies included in the report, only Zimbabwe and Venezuela have failed to maintain or improve their indicators since 2005.	自2005年以来，在该报告说囊括的所有经济体中，只有津巴布韦和委内瑞拉的指标没有实现持续改善。


But such success stories have not deterred the project’s critics.	但如此成功并没有让该项目的批评者闭嘴。


Early criticism came from France, which vigorously objected to the 2004 and 2006 editions’ endorsement of the “legal origins” theory, which suggests that common-law countries benefit from greater regulatory efficiency than civil-law countries.	早期批评来自法国，它强烈反对2004年和2005年报告中对“法律渊源”理论的支持——其结论是习惯法国家从监管效率中获得的好处比民法国家更大。


China, like France in the past, objects to the perceived Anglo-American bias of Doing Business.	与过去的法国一样，中国反对它在《营商环境报告》中说感到的对盎格鲁-美利坚的偏向。


Others criticize the report’s methodology, claiming that the indicators are not inclusive or that they improperly measure countries’ regulatory environments.	其他人批评报告的方法论���指出指标并不具有包容性，或者报告衡量各国监管环境的手段不合适。


Still others have argued that Doing Business contains built-in biases against regulation and taxation, which may create incentives for countries to enact reforms that game the system rather than produce meaningful results.	还有人指出，《营商环境报告》存在针对监管和税收的内在偏见，这可能造成激励让各国采取应付制度而不是产生有意义结果的改革。


To be sure, not all of these objections are without merit; there is certainly room for methodological improvement.	平心而论，这些反对不乏中肯之处； 方法论显然存在改进的空间。


That is why Doing Business adjusts its indicators every year based on feedback and review.	这正是《营商环境报告》根据反馈和批评每年调整指标的原因。


For example, following criticism of the “Employing Workers” indicator, the International Finance Corporation (the World Bank’s private-sector lending arm) conducted a review and removed it as a contributing factor to the rankings.	比如，根据人们对“雇用工人”（Employing Workers）指标的批评，国际金融公司（International Finance Corporation，世界银行的私人贷款部门）做了反思，不再把它作为排名的影响因子。


A similar review should be carried out on other indicators, such as “Paying Taxes,” with any changes tailored to enable continued comparison across time, one of the project’s main benefits.	其他指标，比如“纳税”（Paying Taxes）也应该做类似的反思，作出改变以进行跨时间持续比较（这是《营商环境报告》项目的主要优势之一）。


Given that the project’s methodological flaws can be addressed with targeted review and reform, doing away with Doing Business altogether would be extreme and unnecessary.	该报告的方法论漏洞可以通过定向反思和改革予以纠正，一刀切否定该报告太过极端，而且毫无必要。


Countries like France, China, and India, dissatisfied with their low rankings, should not be allowed to eliminate or cripple the project.	法国、中国和印度等国家不满于自身的低排名，不能让它们扼杀或削弱该报告。


Indeed, outsourcing or cutting Doing Business could damage the World Bank’s standing.	事实上，外包或取缔《营商环境报告》可能伤害世界银行的名誉。


Just last month, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew trumpeted Doing Business in congressional testimony justifying American support for multilateral development banks.	就在上个月，美国国防部长卢在国会听证中力挺《营商环境报告》以证明美国对多边开发银行的支持。


More broadly, backing away from such a project would undermine the Bank’s promotion of rule-based systems and legal certainty – and would weaken the reformers in developing and emerging economies who seek to transform clientilist and patronage-based economies.	更广义地说，支持取消这一项目有害于世行对基于规则的制度和法律确定性的推进，也会阻碍发展中和新兴经济体寻求改变门客主义、唯保护人之首是詹的经济的改革家。


Finally, while Doing Business focuses on helping the poorest countries to improve their economic performance, it also influences advanced-country policymaking and business practices.	最后，尽管《营商环境报告》注意力集中在帮助最贫困国家改善经济表现，但它也影响着发达国家决策者和商业行为。


If the project is eliminated, European policymakers will be denied important information that could help to guide discussions about enhancing competitiveness.	如果该项目被取缔，欧洲决策者将无法获得能指导关于增强竞争力的讨论的重要信息。 比如，在希腊注册产权比在吉布提还要难；


For example, registering property in Greece is more difficult than in Djibouti; enforcing a contract in Italy takes roughly three times as long as it does in Vietnam; and starting a business in Spain takes roughly 3.5 times longer than in Azerbaijan.	强制执行合同在意大利所耗费的时间三倍于越南； 而在西班牙开办企业所需要的时间比在阿塞拜疆长3.


Doing Business does not provide policy solutions.	《营商环境报告》并不提供政策解决方案。


But it does provide a rigorous, credible framework for policy debate – and thus an opportunity that no economy can afford to lose.	但它提供有力而可信的政策争论框架，从而也提供了所有经济体都不可或缺的机会。


The World Bank’s Wrong Choice	世界银行的错误之选


NEW YORK – The selection of the American nominee Jim Yong Kim as President of the World Bank, over Nigeria’s finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who was overwhelmingly regarded as a vastly superior candidate, is impossible to condone but easy to explain.	发自纽约——选择美国提名的金镛（Jim Yong Kim）担任行长而放弃广受好评且各项能力都优于前者的尼日利亚财政部长恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦拉女士（Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala），世界银行的这个决定虽然让人难以接受，但却非常容易解释。


It also points to serious dangers for the unfinished task of development.	而这同时也意味着那些尚未完成的开发计划即将面临严重威胁。


The selection process suffered from several inequities and non-transparent features that undermined the United States’ claim to the contrary.	整个甄选程序都受到了多项不平等状况以及不透明操作的影响，反而令美国的主张遭到了削弱。


Indeed, those claims were of a piece with the linguistic obfuscations that dominate American public debate: just as carpet bombing was called “pacification” during the Vietnam War, today illegal immigrants are called “undocumented aliens.”	事实上那些主张只不过是一堆主导美国公共辩论的文过饰非而已：就像从前把越南战争中的地毯式轰炸称之为“和解”一样，如今那些非法移民则被称之为“未有登记在册的外国人”。


Thus, the rollout of the American propaganda machine for Kim, who traveled to many capitals worldwide with US Treasury support and promises of American largesse, surely biased the vote against Okonjo-Iweala.	而美国的宣传机器则为金镛大举开动，而他本人则周游列国，用美国的财政支持和捐赠援助四处游说，而这些利益显然会向那些投票反对奥孔乔-伊韦拉的国家倾斜。


And, after all, the World Bank is a donor institution.	归根结底，世界银行是一个依赖捐赠的机构。


So potential borrowers like India and Mexico, which should have voted for Okonjo-Iweala, acted prudently and voted for Kim instead.	因此像印度和墨西哥这样本应投给奥孔乔-伊韦拉的潜在贷款人都有所顾虑，转而把票投给了金镛。


Her human capital was no match for his financial capital.	但此人的人品却不像他的金融势力那样受人景仰。


In a genuinely open, merit-based contest, the 25-member Executive Board’s deliberations should have been preceded by debates between the candidates.	在一个真正公开并依靠候选人积累的优势进行评比的比赛中，拥有25个成员的执行董事会的决策应该最终基于候选人之间的辩论而得出。


I suspect that Okonjo-Iweala, with her enormous competence and renowned wit, would have gotten the better of Kim.	我猜能力卓越且以机智闻名的奥孔乔-伊韦拉能在该项评比中压倒金镛。


The world would also have seen why so many of us were rooting for her.	而全世界也都能看到我们中的许多人为什么会支持这位女士。


Again, the worldwide influence of the powerful liberal media in the US should not be underestimated.	与此同时，美国强大的自由媒体的世界影响力也不应该被低估。


While The Economist backed Okonjo-Iweala, The New York Times endorsed Kim.	当《经济学人》支持奥孔乔-伊韦拉之时，《纽约时报》却鼓吹金镛。


This is an election year in the US: if President Barack Obama had nominated a lamppost, America’s “newspaper of record” would have found it to be possessed of excellent credentials.	今年是美国的总统大选年：就算总统奥巴马提名了一根电灯柱当行长，你会发现美国的“资料报纸”——意指那些能为读者提供全面详尽和准确报道的媒体——也能发掘出这根灯柱的优秀品质。


Moreover, just as Ralph Nader’s candidacy (and the US Supreme Court) prevented Al Gore from defeating George W. Bush in 2000, one must recognize that Okonjo-Iweala was undercut by the candidacy of José Antonio Ocampo, a former finance minister of Colombia, who was backed by Brazil.	此外，正如拉尔夫·纳德（Ralph Nader）的参选（以及美国最高法院）阻止了阿尔·戈尔在2000年大选中击败小布什那样，我们也必须承认奥孔乔-伊韦拉也被哥伦比亚前财政部长何塞·安东尼奥·奥坎普（José Antonio Ocampo）的参选所削弱了（此人的背后支持者是巴西）。


His candidacy made Okonjo-Iweala look like a regional “African candidate,” while Ocampo was the “Latin American” candidate.	他的参选使奥孔乔-伊韦拉看上去像一个只为某区域服务的“非洲候选人”，而奥坎普本人则被视为“拉美”候选人。


Brazil should have worked with India, Mexico, and South Africa instead, to produce unified support for Okonjo-Iweala.	其实巴西应该与印度，墨西哥和南非通力合作，一致支持奥孔乔-伊韦拉。


When Brazil did move in that direction, it was too late to make any difference.	而当巴西没有选择这条路径之时，奥孔乔-伊韦拉再想翻身就太迟了。


And now one cannot suppress the thought that Kim’s election could turn into a disaster for the cause of development.	如今人们也忍不住会猜想金庸的当选是否会成为开发进程的一个灾难。


His tirade in 2000 against the liberal reforms that have transformed countries like India and China into global growth engines, reduced poverty, and benefited marginalized groups shows that he lacked good judgment on fundamental issues.	此人曾经在2000发表长篇讲话，反对那些将印度和中国这类国家转变成全球增长引擎，减少贫困，并且令边缘群体收益的自由化改革，这显示出他对某些基本问题缺乏判断。


No one recalls any expression of regret by him, which suggests that he persists in such folly – and would use conditionality to turn the clock back on decades of progress in development economics.	同时也没有人见过他对此言论有任何悔意，这意味着此人将坚持这些愚蠢的行为——并想方设法令数十年来在发展经济方面取得的进步走向倒退。


But my fear is that Kim would be a disaster even on health-care issues – an area where he has rightly earned credit for his work on AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis.	但我的担忧则是金镛甚至会为医疗卫生事务带来灾难——虽然他本人正是由于在艾滋病，疟疾和肺结核方面的工作而赢得赞誉的。


Thanks to the economic growth that resulted from the reforms that he denounced, countries like India and Brazil now have higher revenues to spend on health care for the poor, among other public goods.	多亏有了他指责的改革所带来的经济增长，印度和巴西这些国家如今才能有更多的财政收入去提供公共产品，其中就包括穷人的医疗卫生保障。


As a result, the public-health questions that Kim will face at the World Bank are very different from the “big” diseases with which he dealt in the past.	于是乎，金镛将在世界银行行长一职上面对跟他从前应对的那些“大型”疾病非常不同的公共卫生问题。


India, for example, is struggling with the balance between public and private provisions of medical care for routine health problems, and with questions of medical training and availability (that is, should India have “barefoot doctors,” or aim for only fully qualified practitioners?).	比如印度正就如何在公共和私人就普通疾病提供医疗服务方面挣扎权衡，还面对着医疗培训和医疗服务的提供问题（比如应该允许“赤脚医生”的存在，还是只能容许合资格的医疗从业者？ ）


Can Kim lead on these and other issues that are beyond his experience?	那么金镛究竟能不能在上述以及其他超出他原有经验之外的事务上发挥领导作用？


Foreboding is in order.	我有一点不祥的预感。


The World Cup and African Women	世界杯与非洲女性


NAIROBI – When I was born, 25 years ago, it would have been rare – even taboo – to find African women discussing soccer.	发自内罗毕——当我在25年前呱呱落坠地之时，没几个非洲女性会去谈论足球，甚至有时就是种禁忌。


But that is what my girlfriends and I now do.	但如今我和我的女伴们却可以高谈阔论了。


I grew up in Kenya, where my compatriots follow the English Premier League zealously, perhaps because of our colonial connection to England. Kenyans are so passionate about the Premier League that last year an Arsenal fan, Suleiman Omondi, hanged himself after his team lost to Manchester United.	我在肯尼亚长大，或许受前英国殖民地的历史影响，身边的同伴们都疯狂地追捧英超联赛，狂热程度之高，甚至导致一位名叫苏利曼·奥蒙蒂的阿森纳队球迷禁不住己队输给曼联的悲愤，用一根绳索结束了自己的生命。


This year, another Arsenal fan in the coastal town of Lamu stabbed a Manchester United fan in the stomach.	而就在今年，又有一名阿森纳球迷在海边城市拉姆一刀捅穿了另一个曼联球迷的腹部。


Kenyan women love soccer, too.	而肯尼亚女性也非常热爱足球。


I’m a Chelsea fan, and so are most of my girlfriends. We rarely disagree.	我本人就是个切尔西队的“粉丝”，其他女伴也跟我站在同一阵线。


We console each other when Chelsea loses, and worry together when our team plays big clubs, like recently when they played Liverpool, the only major contender that stood between Chelsea and the English title. Fortunately, Chelsea won.	在球队落败时我们互相安慰，在豪门大战将至时也一起忧心不已，正如英超冠军最有力的争夺者利物浦队的那场，所幸切尔西顺利地拿下了比赛。


But, as the World Cup moves into its quarter and semi-final matches, my girlfriends have started to argue.	谁知在世界杯开打之后，女伴们却发生了内部分裂。


Although we don’t exchange blows like men, we are just as passionate, especially since the world’s most famous tournament is being played on our continent.	虽然我们不会像男人那样拳脚相向，但同样是激情洋溢，尤其是这个世界上最负盛名的锦标赛降临到我们这个大陆的时候。


Sometimes it seems like we spend more time arguing about soccer than we do chatting about men.	有时我们谈论足球的时间似乎要比谈论男友的时间还长。


At the tournament’s start, my girlfriends and I could not seem to agree on which team to support. Should we pick from Algeria, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and South Africa, the countries representing Africa?	我和我的女伴们似乎在支持哪支队的问题上有不同的看法，我们是否应该把心思放在阿尔及利亚、喀麦隆、科特迪瓦、加纳，尼日利亚和南非这几只非洲球队上？


We were torn between the natural instinct to root for our brothers and the urge to side with the likes of Argentina, Brazil, Italy, Germany, and others who seemed more likely to win.	一面是与非洲同胞脱不开的本能联系，一面是阿根廷、巴西、意大利、德国以及其他更有可能赢得比赛的球队，真是让人左右为难。


Initially, I supported France, because I like Chelsea’s Nicolas Anelka, though as an African woman I also could not resist the dream of chanting with joy those times when an African team won.	我原本支持法国，因为我喜欢切尔西队的安内尔卡，但作为一个非洲女性，我也忍不住去梦想非洲球队夺冠的喜悦。


That we, young African women, are talking more about the sport is a sign of hope for women’s soccer on the continent.	此外，非洲年轻女性更多地谈论这项运动的事实也为非洲女足的未来燃起了希望。


A senior sports writer with a Kenyan daily paper recently told me that this time women seem to be interested in learning the rules of the game and knowing more about players and their positions.	最近我和某位肯尼亚资深体育评论员在一起的时候，他告诉我如今女性似乎更有兴趣去了解足球比赛的规则还有球员的资料。


They want to enjoy the game, rather than sit in the company of their male relatives, oblivious to what’s happening on the pitch.	她们希望能分享球赛的快乐，而不是像往常那样呆坐在男人身边，弄不清一帮人究竟在球场上忙什么。


But will the 2010 World Cup bring African women more than just fodder for gossip?	但2101年世界杯除了给女性们带来了谈资之外，是否能产生更深远的影响？


Holding the 1994 World Cup in the United States increased soccer’s popularity there and led to the creation of Major League Soccer in 1996.	1994年的美国世界杯令当地足球人口激增，为1996年美国足球大联盟的诞生铺平了道路。


And, in 1999, the US hosted and won its second women’s World Cup, leading to a women’s soccer revolution in the country.	接着1999年美国作为东道主赢得了自己的第二个女足世界杯冠军，直接引发了一场女性足球的革命。


The label “soccer mom” has become common in the US, as more women enroll their children in soccer camps.	那些把子女送到足球训练营的“足球妈妈”也与日俱增。


Will holding the world’s greatest single sporting event in Africa spark similar interest for the continent’s women?	那么这场在非洲举办的最伟大的单一项目竞赛是否同样能激发起非洲女性的兴趣呢？


I was encouraged recently to read about Simphiwe Dludlu, a female player who has become one of South Africa’s top sports personalities.	而最近在听到了辛菲·卢卢的事迹后我深受鼓舞。


FIFA has invited her to assist at the official World Cup opening ceremony.	这位南非女足运动员已经成功跻身于本国顶级运动员之列，而国际足联也邀请她出席了世界杯开幕式。


Dludlu has been playing since the age of 10, and currently plies her trade at Tuks FC in Pretoria, where she is also studying at university.	卢卢10岁就开始踢球，目前效力于南非比勒陀利亚的图科斯足球俱乐部，同时还在修读大学课程。


In 2006 Dludlu got her first call to join the Banyana Banyana, as the South African women’s team is called, and has 33 caps.	2006年她入选了南非女子国家足球队（当地祖鲁语称为“Banyana Banyana”，就是女孩的意思）并取得了33个进球。


Her success clearly shows that African women football players can reach great heights. But for most African young women and girls, it’s not that simple.	她的成功毫无疑问地表明：非洲的女子足球运动员也是大有前途的，但对大多数非洲妇女来说，事情并不是那么简单。


Although women’s soccer in Africa is as old as the republics themselves (the first teams appeared in West Africa in early 1960), soccer on the continent is still a man’s sport. Most African wives dread the season.	虽然非洲的女子足球运动几乎跟非洲各国的独立建国运动同龄（第一个女子足球队诞生于1960年代早期的西非共和国），足球在这个大陆上依然是男人的运动。


They become soccer widows, as their husbands flock to bars. Every day at dinner, mothers are left alone to answer when children ask if daddy still lives in the house.	大多数女性对世界杯感到苦恼，因为一有比赛男人就挤到酒吧看球去了，只剩下她们这些“足球寡妇”。


Even wives of men who watch the game at home have got other issues to deal with.	即便是那些丈夫在家看球的妻子们也遇到了类似的问题。


For instance, Joyce, my former workmate, has a husband who is a diehard Manchester United fan. Every season, he breaks at least one piece of furniture when his team loses.	比如我以前的同事乔伊斯，他丈���是个铁杆曼联球迷，而且每个球季至少要为球队的失利砸烂家里一件家具。


Couches are stained with beer, and kicked as he cheers his favorite teams. She has changed her furniture at least twice since she got married four years ago.	沙发抱枕上满是啤酒渍，还经常给踢得飞来飞去，自从结婚之后我这位女伴至少已经换过两次家具了。


Given male dominance in African politics and soccer, any chance to improve the state of the sport that might arise from the 2010 World Cup will most likely benefit men.	考虑到男性在非洲政治和足球方面的统治地位，本届世界杯对足球运动的任何促进大都会落到男性身上。


That is because in most African countries, even men’s national teams are struggling. Male youth soccer camps and leagues are either nonexistent or mediocre.	那是因为在大多数非洲国家连男子国家足球队的日子都不好过，在那些地方男子足球训练营和联赛要么根本没有，要么就办得一塌糊涂，更别提女子足球了。


Until brought to a level where they can compete in international tournaments beyond Africa, women’s soccer teams will continue to struggle.	而除非实力能提升到可以在非洲大陆之外争夺锦标的程度，否则非洲的女子足球也将继续举步维艰下去。


And, considering the rampant corruption that plagues our continent, it might take a century to see male soccer teams managed and funded sufficiently.	此外考虑到弥漫整个大陆的腐败问题，估计要等100年之后才能看到一支管理完善资金充足的非洲国家男子足球队。


American women improved their game because soccer moms do not heavily rely on husbands to fund their daughters’ training.	而美国女性之所以能取得如今的成绩，就是因为那些身为中产阶级职业女性的“足球妈妈”根本不需要丈夫的资助来让女儿练球。


As more African women continue to be educated, I dream of the day when we, too, will be able to decide for ourselves.	随着越来越多的非洲女性接受教育，我梦想有一天我们也能实现这一点。


I was, however, encouraged to learn that in South Africa, women of my mother’s generation have been playing in a soccer league for five years.	但让我感到振奋的是，在南非，一个由我母亲那一代人组成的足球联赛已经运作了5年。


After the World Cup, Vakhegula Vakhegula (The Grannies), a team of women between 50 and 84 years old, will travel to the US to play in the Veteran’s Cup.	在世界杯落幕之后，“奶奶帮”（祖鲁语为“Vakhegula Vakhegula”，意为“老奶奶”）这支由50至84岁老球员组成的女子足球队将奔赴美国争夺“耆耄杯”（Veteran’s Cup）。


Our boys may not win in South Africa, but maybe The Grannies can show how it is done.	我猜如果非洲的那帮壮汉不能在南非取得胜利的话，或许这帮奶奶们会乐意去给他们做一个示范的。


Systems at Risk	面临风险的系统


GENEVA – Failure to adapt to climate change, persistent extreme weather, and major systemic financial failure are just three of 50 major risks monitored every year in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report.	日内瓦—无法适应气候变化、持续的极端天气和金融业重大系统失灵是一年一度的世界经济论坛《全球风险报告》（Global Risks Report）所提出的50大风险中的三个。


It seems natural to draw connections among them, especially after a “superstorm” shut down Wall Street this past October.	自然地，这三者之间存在联系，特别是在去年十月让重创华尔街的“超级风暴”之后。


Indeed, the report reminds us of the many ways in which systems inevitably affect one another in our interdependent world.	事实上，报告提醒我们，在这个相互联系的世界中，系统间相互影响的方式多如牛毛。


More important, the report warns of the dangers of multiple systems failing.	更重要的是，报告警告我们面临诸多系统失灵的风险。


Two of the world’s most fundamental systems, for example, are the economy and the environment; their interplay underpins the first of three case studies of risk in this year’s report.	比如，世界两大最根本的系统是经济和环境； 它们之间的互动构成了今年报告中三大案例研究的第一个。


The 1,000 experts who responded to the WEF’s annual Global Risks Perception Survey, on which the report is based, ranked climate-change adaptation as their top environmental concern in the coming decade.	1 000名专家参与了世界经济论坛风险报告的基础——全球风险前景调查，他们认为适应气候变化是未来十年的首要环境问题。


This reflects a wider shift in thinking about the climate, with growing acceptance that we are now locked in to some degree of global temperature change and need to adapt locally – for example, by strengthening our critical infrastructure systems in order to boost their resilience to extreme weather events.	这反映出关于气候问题的思维发生了较大变化，越来越多的人承认我们已经陷入一定程度的全球温度变迁过程，必须根据当地情况适应这一变化——比如通过改善关键性基础设施系统以增强抵抗极端天气事件的能力。


But we face these environmental challenges at a time of persistent economic weakness.	但我们是在经济持续低迷的时候遇上这些环境挑战的。


Global growth remains slow; and, with monetary and fiscal policies having a limited impact on economic recovery, governments have neither the resources nor the courage to push for major projects.	全球增长依然缓慢，货币和财政政策对经济复苏影响有限，政府要么缺乏资源，要么缺少勇气推动大工程。


Not surprisingly, our survey group ranked chronic fiscal imbalances second among 50 global risks that are most likely to manifest themselves over the next ten years.	毫不奇怪，在我们的调查中，长期财政失衡名列未来十年将趋于严重的50大全球风险第二名。


Strong economies provide the leeway to invest in climate adaptation, while environmental stability ensures the breathing space needed to attend to economic problems.	坚挺的经济能提供投资气候适应项目的空间，同时环境稳定也能保证解决经济问题的空间。


Facing stresses on both systems simultaneously is like losing both engines on an airplane in mid-flight.	同时面临两大系统的压力就好比是飞机在飞行途中遭遇两大引擎同时熄火。


The second case study takes another perspective on systems thinking.	这第二个案例研究采取了不同的视角看待系统。


What happens if an apparently “minor” system – such as social media – sparks a “major” geopolitical crisis?	显然是“次要”的系统——比如社交媒体——对“主要”地缘政治危机大呼小叫怎么办？


With the growing reach of social networks, information can spread worldwide almost instantaneously.	社交网络已是无处不在，信息可以在一瞬间传播到世界每个角落。


The benefits of this are well documented, but the risks of misinformation are not.	社交媒体的好处已是众人皆知，但假消息的风险鲜有人提及。


Consider the real-world case of someone shouting “Fire!” in a crowded theater.	我们可以用现实世界中的例子打比方，好比有人在拥挤的戏院大喊“着火啦！


Could something similar happen digitally, with a spark of misinformation igniting a conflagration and wreaking havoc before the truth is revealed?	”数字世界中会发生类似的事件吗？ 假消息会在真相暴露前点燃恐慌之火吗？


The report’s third case study looks at what happens when we become complacent about a vital system.	报告的第三个案例研究是关于我们对某个关键系统沾沾自喜的后果的。


For example, constant innovation in medical science over the last 100 years has left us with the impression that our health-care systems can never regress.	比如，在过去100年中，医学不断地产生着创新，这让我们感觉卫生系统永远不会退步。


But experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for pandemics caused by bacteria resistant to all current antibiotics, while our intellectual-property system is failing to create adequate incentives for the development of new varieties.	但专家们越来越担忧细菌性流行病终有一日会所有现有抗生素产生抗药性，而我们的知识产权系统无法产生足够的激励对劲新药的研发。


The director-general of the World Health Organization has warned that if the world falls back into a pre-antibiotic age, a scratch or throat infection could become lethal once again.	世界卫生组织总干事警告说，如果世界退回前抗生素时代，那么抓伤或喉部感染将再次成为致命伤害。


Each case highlights the need to consider how to make systems more resilient, which means that systems cannot be considered in isolation.	这三个例子均凸显出让系统更具韧性的必要性，这意味着不能孤立地看待系统。


They are both plugged into larger systems and comprised of smaller subsystems.	它们既是更大的系统的一部分，同时又由更小的系统组成。


While, ideally, global risks would be met with global responses, the reality is that these risks manifest themselves mainly at the national level, and countries must address them largely on their own.	尽管从理想上说，全球风险应该由全球应对措施来对付，但现实是这些风险主要在国家层面演进，各国必须自力更生面临挑战。


So we need to assess national resilience by regularly evaluating critical subsystems within countries.	因此我们需要通过定期评估国家内部的关键次级系统来确认国家的抗灾力。


The WEF currently is developing metrics that could evaluate national subsystems across five factors of resilience – redundancy, robustness, resourcefulness, response, and recovery – by combining perception-based data with publicly available statistical data.	如今，世界经济组织正在研究用五大韧性因素与基于感知的数据和统计数据相结合的评估国家次级系统。 这五大因素是充足性（redundancy）、稳健性（robustness）、智能性（resourcefulness）、响应（response）和复苏（recovery）。


Initial perception-based data gathered by the Forum is pointing toward the importance of leadership ability, transparency, efficiency, and good relationships between public and private-sector stakeholders.	世界经济论坛所收集的首批基于感知的数据包括领导层能力、透明度、效率以及公私利益相关部门之间的良好关系等。


While the development of these metrics is in its early stages, the ultimate aim is to develop a practical diagnostic tool that would function as an “MRI” for national decision-makers to assess their countries’ resilience to global risks.	这些指标的开发还处在初级阶段，但其最终目标是开发实用的诊断工具，作为“MRI”供国家决策者评估国家全球风险抵抗力之用。


By revealing underlying weaknesses that more traditional risk-assessment methods may miss, we could pinpoint the structural reforms, behavioral changes, and strategic investments that increased resilience requires.	通过揭示传统风险评估方法所不能揭示的弱点，我们可以让结构性改革、行为改变和增加韧性要求的战略投资更精确。


The result would not only directly benefit each country willing to engage in this process. It would also imply accelerated innovation in global governance, which we need more than ever for the sake of preserving the integrity of our most crucial systems.	结果将不仅有利于愿意参与其中的各个国家，也将间接地加速全球治理创新，为了维持最关键系统的完整性，我们急切地需要全球治理创新。


The World’s Biggest Shock Absorber	世界最大的缓冲器


MUNICH – Since last autumn, Germany has been accused by a number of Anglo-American economists, above all by the 2008 Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, of not doing enough to combat the world economic crisis and of free-riding on other countries’ stimulus programs.	慕尼黑－从去年秋天开始，就有许多英美经济学家，特别是2008诺贝尔经济学奖获得者保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman），批评德国在对抗世界经济危机方面做得不够，并指责德国搭乘其他国家经济刺激计划的顺风车。


Recently, The Financial Times asked where the German economists are who defend Germany’s policies, voicing the presumption that they disagree with their government’s policies but are too cowardly to say so publicly, thus conforming to the rituals of the German “consensus society.”	最近，《金融时报》质问那些支持德国经济政策的德国经济学家哪里去了，并推测说，这些德国经济学家不同意德国政府的政策，但是他们太懦弱了，不敢公开说出来，这符合德国“共识社会”的传统。


From a German point of view, this discussion is a ludicrous inversion of the truth.	《金融时报》的这种议论，从一个德国人的角度看来，是对事实的可笑的颠倒。


Germany has implemented two economic stimulus programs, amounting to €80 billion, or 3.2% of GDP, of which 1% of GDP will take effect in 2009.	德国已经实施了两项经济刺激计划，用于刺激经济的资金达到了800亿欧元，占德国GDP的3. 2%，其中，在2009年用掉的资金占德国GDP 的1%。


At first glance, this is indeed less than the American program, which totals 6.2% of GDP, of which 2% will be spent in 2009.	乍一看来，德国用于刺激经济的资金确实是比美国的要少，因为美国用于经济刺激计划的资金占美国GDP的6.


But this impression is deceptive, since the German state, through the built-in flexibility of its extensive social-welfare system, already contributes to stabilizing the world economy.	2%，而且在2009年用掉的资金占美国GDP的2%。 但是，这种印象是具有欺骗性的，因为德国通过其具有内在弹性的广泛的社会保障体系，已经为世界经济的稳定作出了贡献。


Indeed, Germany’s generous unemployment insurance policies ensure that people are able to maintain their consumption standards even if they lose their jobs.	事实上，德国充裕的失业保险，保证了人们即使在失业的情况下，也可以保持其消费水平不下降。


Germany even has short-time allowances that enable companies to reduce their employees’ working hours, with the loss in earnings partly reimbursed by the state.	德国甚至为公司减少员工的工作时间提供短期补贴，从而使国家部分地补偿了这些员工减少的收入。


Without this short-time allowance, the average number of unemployed in 2009 would be 300,000 higher than it is now.	如果德国没有这种短期补贴，德国2009年的平均失业人数要比现在的多300,000人。


At the same time, more than 40% of Germany’s adult population (pensioners, social-welfare recipients, unemployed, accident victims, students) receives some form of state transfer income, especially those in eastern Germany, while the burden of taxes and social security contributions on those in employment is high.	与此同时，虽然那些有工作的德国人的税赋和社会保障支出负担很重，但是，有超过40%的德国成年人口（领取年金的人、领取社会福利金的人、失业人口、意外事故受害者和学生）在领取某种形式的由国家支付的收入，那些在德国东部地区的人尤其如此。


While this certainly impedes long-term economic growth and causes great structural problems, it also means that the state reacts extremely counter-cyclically and stabilizes the economy to a great extent, which benefits the entire world.	虽然这肯定会阻碍德国经济的长期增长，并造成重大的结构性问题，但是，这也意味着，德国在采取极强的抗周期行动，并在很大程度上稳定了经济，而这对全世界都是有利的。


The German state recorded a budget deficit of just 0.1% of GDP in 2008, which, according to a recent OECD forecast, will soar to 4.5% of GDP in 2009.	2008年，德国的预算赤字只占德国GDP的0. 1%，但是，根据OECD最近的预测报告，2009年德国的预算赤字会飙升到GDP的4.


Thus, the economic stimulus provided by the German state budget will amount to 4.4% of GDP in 2009.	因此，德国国家财政预算提供的经济刺激资金在2009年会达到GDP的4. 4%。


In the United States, the budget deficit in 2008 stood at 5.8% of GDP, and, according to the same OECD forecast, will amount to 10.2% of GDP in 2009, which translates into exactly the same economic stimulus as in Germany, 4.4% of GDP.	8%，根据同一份OECD预测报告，在2009年会达到GDP的10. 2%，这一比例就 变成和德国一样的了，即GDP的4.


In addition, Germany has much more inner stability than the US, because it does not have the problem of heavily indebted households that are now restricted in their borrowing.	而且，德国国内比美国国内更稳定，因为德国没有像美国那样的在借贷上受到限制的负债严重的家庭。


German banks grant mortgages only to a maximum of 60% of the value of a house, instead of the 100% mortgages that were frequently seen in the US and United Kingdom.	德国的银行提供的抵押贷款的数量，最多为房屋价值的60%，而不是在美国和英国常见的100%的抵押贷款。


Likewise, there is also virtually no credit card debt in Germany, or other reasons for US-style household indebtedness.	同样，在德国也几乎没有信用卡债务，或者其他的引起美国式的家庭负债的原因。


A normal German household is not on its last financial legs, and is therefore able to compensate for income losses by adjusting its savings.	正常的德国家庭不会用光所有的钱，因此这些家庭可以通过调整储蓄来弥补收入的减少。


This is an additional reason why private consumption in Germany, according to last week’s joint forecast by Germany’s leading economic institutes, will increase by 0.3% in 2009 in the midst of the worst post-war economic crisis, whereas private consumption is in freefall almost everywhere else in the world.	这就是在战后世界最严重的经济危机的中期，私人消费在世界其他地区几乎都是直线下降的时候，根据上个星期德国主要的经济研究机构的预测，德国的私人消费在2009年还会增加0. 3％的另一个原因。


Germany is the world’s second largest importer, closely behind the US.	德国是仅次于美国的世界第二大进口国。


Thus, the stability of German consumption is currently the world economy’s strongest economic pillar.	因此，德国消费的稳定是当前世界经济最强大的经济上的支柱。


Whereas German exports are falling at an annual rate of 20%, the portion of imports that does not consist of intermediate products for export goods is stable, helping the world as a whole.	尽管德国的出口在以每年20%的速度下降，但是，德国对不用于生产出口产品的中间产品的其他产品的进口，是稳定的，这在总体上对世界经济有帮助作用。


The data clearly supports this view.	数据显然也支持了这种观点。


According to the OECD, the annualized flow of German goods exports from January 2008 to January 2009 declined by $173 billion more than the corresponding flow of imports fell, which means that Germany’s annualized trade surplus fell by the same amount.	根据OECD的统计，德国2008年1月份到2009年1月份的年化货物出口量比相同时期的年化货物进口量多下降了1730亿美元，这意味着，德国的年化贸易顺差也减少了同样的数量。


This is the strongest decline in net foreign demand facing a single country, or, equivalently, the strongest increase in a country’s net demand for foreign goods.	这是单个国家面临的最严重的净外国需求的下降，或者换句话说，这是单个国家对外国商品需求的最强劲的增长。


Japan, for example, has confronted only a $157 billion decline in its annualized trade balance.	而其他国家，例如日本，其年化贸易收支只减少了1570亿。


During the same period, annualized US imports declined by $284 billion more than US exports, and China’s annualized trade surplus increased by $249 billion.	在同一时期，美国的年化进口量比美国的年化出口量多下降了2840亿美元，中国的年化贸易顺差增加了2490亿美元。


In other words, from January 2008 to January 2009, the US withdrew $284 billion and China $249 billion in annualized demand from the world economy, whereas Germany provided $173 billion and Japan $157 billion in annualized demand stimulus to the world economy.	换句话说，从2008年1月份到2009年1月份,美国从世界的年化需求中获得了2840亿美元,中国获得了2490亿美元，而德国为世界经济提供了1730亿美元的年化需求刺激，日本提供了1570亿美元的年化需求刺激。


For Europe’s bigger countries, the picture of annualized demand in the same period is mixed.	对欧洲其他的大国来说，2008年1月份到2009年1月份的年化需求情况有所不同。


While Italy, like Germany and Japan, has added demand, totaling $6 billion, Spain has withdrawn $101 billion, the UK $50 billion and France $19 billion.	虽然意大利与德国和日本一样，增加了高达60亿美元的需求，但是，西班牙吸收了1010亿美元的需求，英国吸收了500亿美元的需求，法国吸收了190亿美元的需求。


The $7 trillion decline in US house prices over the past two years was equivalent to the explosion of an atomic bomb.	在过去两年里，美国房屋价格蒸发的7万亿美元和原子弹爆炸产生的影响相当。


Germany, Japan, and other countries absorbed and mitigated the shock waves.	德国、日本和其他国家吸收并减轻了这一影响带来的冲击波。


So, instead of belittling German efforts, the world should show Germany a little more gratitude.	所以，世界应该向德国表示更多的感谢，而不是小视德国的努力。


The World\u0027s Runaway Train	世界的暴走列车


CAMBRIDGE – The global economy is a runaway train that is slowing, but not quickly enough.	剑桥－全球经济是一辆正在放缓的暴走列车，但是放缓的速度还不够快。


That is what the extraordinary run-up in prices for oil, metals, and food is screaming at us.	这是短期内油价、金属价格以及食品价格的惊人涨幅对我们发出的呼喊。


The spectacular and historic global economic boom of the past six years is about to hit a wall.	全球经济在过去六年里壮观而具有历史性的繁荣将要撞上南墙。


Unfortunately, no one, certainly not in Asia or the United States, seems willing to bite the bullet and help engineer the necessary coordinated retreat to sustained sub-trend growth, which is necessary so that new commodity supplies and alternatives can catch up.	不幸的是，似乎没有人－在亚洲和美国肯定没人，愿意咬紧牙关挺过去，并帮助指挥必要的对持久的分增长趋势有协调的退却，而这对新商品的供应和替代品接上来是很必要的。


Instead, governments are clawing to stretch out unsustainable booms, further pushing up commodity prices, and raising the risk of a once-in-a-lifetime economic and financial mess.	与此相反，各国政府却奋力延长这些不可持续的繁荣，从而进一步推高商品价格，并且增加了那种“千载难逢”的经济和金融混乱的风险。


All this need not end horribly, but policymakers in most regions have to start pressing hard on the brakes, not the accelerator.	虽然所有这些不一定会有一个可怕的结局，但是大多数地区的政策制定者将不得不开始踩刹车，而不是去揿加速器。


Don’t look to the US for leadership in a presidential election year.	不要指望美国在总统选举年能有领袖风范。


On the contrary, the US government has been handing out tax-rebate checks so that Americans will shop until they drop, and now Congress is talking about doing more.	相反， 美国政府已经分发退税支票，以使美国人可以尽情购物，并且现在国会还在讨论为此做更多的事情。


Don’t look to emerging markets, either.	也不要寄希望于新兴市场。


Desperate to sustain their political and economic momentum, most have taken a wide variety of steps to prevent their economies from feeling the full brunt of the commodity price hikes.	大多数新兴市场国家都拼命地去维系其政治和经济的发展势头，而且采取各种措施以防止其经济因商品价格上升而遭受沉重的打击。


As a result, higher commodity prices are eating into fiscal cushions rather than curtailing demand.	结果，越来越高的商品价格正在侵蚀着财政储备，而没有抑制需求。


I am puzzled that so many economic pundits seem to think that the solution is for all governments, rich and poor, to pass out even more checks and subsidies so as to keep the boom going.	令我疑惑不解的是，许多经济专家似乎认为提供更多的支票和财政补贴以保证繁荣的解决方案对所有的政府都适用，不管这个政府是富裕还是贫穷。


Keynesian stimulus policies might help ease the pain a bit for individual countries acting in isolation. But if every country tries to stimulate consumption at the same time, it won’t work.	在单个孤立的国家实行凯恩斯主义的刺激政策可能会多少减轻一些痛苦，但是如果每个国家都刺激消费的话，那么它就不起作用了。


A general rise in global demand will simply spill over into higher commodity prices, with little helpful effect on consumption.	全球需求的普遍增长只会促使商品价格的上升，但却对消费产生的积极影响甚微。


Isn’t this obvious?	这不是显而易见吗？


Yes, there is still a financial crisis in the US, but stoking inflation is an incredibly unfair and inefficient way to deal with it.	是的，在美国仍然存在一场金融危机，但是高涨的通货膨胀仅仅是一种令人难以置信的不公平且无效的解决方式。


Some central bankers tell us not to worry, because they will be much more disciplined than central banks were in the 1970’s, when the world faced a similar commodity price spike.	一些中央银行官员告诉我们不必担心，因为他们将比20世纪70年代时的中央银行要有经验得多，在那个时候，全球也面临着一场类似的商品价格上涨。


This time is different, though. The commodity price problem has snuck up on us, despite notable institutional reforms in macroeconomic policymaking all over the world.	然后这一次却情况却不同，尽管在全世界范围内都有显著的宏观经济决策领域内的制度改革，但是这次商品价格上涨问题还是已经悄然进入我们的生活。


The historic influx of new entrants into the global work force, each aspiring to Western consumption standards, is simply pushing global growth past the safety marker on the speed dial.	新劳动力－他们都渴望达到西方的消费水准－进入全球劳动力市场具有历史意义，但这只会使全球增长超过了安全界限。


As a result, commodity resource constraints that we once expected to face in the middle of the twenty-first century are hitting us today.	结果，我们一度预测的将在21世纪中叶到来的商品资源瓶颈问题，在今天就已经向我们袭来。


Wait a second, you say.	那么等一等。


Why can’t our wonderfully flexible market economies roll with the punches?	为什么我们富有弹性的市场经济不能从容应对困难呢？


Won’t high prices cause people to conserve on consumption and seek out new sources of supply?	高昂的价格难道不会迫使人们节制消费并且寻找新的供应来源吗？


Yes, and that eventually happened with energy supplies in the 1980’s.	是的，在20世界80年代，这种事情确实在能源供应领域内发生过。


But the process takes time, and, because of the rising weight of relatively inflexible emerging market economies in global consumption, adjustment will probably take longer than it did a few decades ago.	但是，这一过程需要时间，而且，因为相对不具有弹性的新兴市场经济体在全球消费领域内权重的增加，调整将可能比几十年前花费更多的时间。


Oil exporters and China have been accounting for two-thirds of global oil demand growth in recent years.	近年来，石油出口国和中国大概占了石油需求增长量的2/3。


Rich country consumers are responding to higher energy prices, and it helps.	富裕国家的消费者对于越来越高的能源价格有所反应，并且高价格确实起了一些作用。


New York City, for example, has seen a reduction of perhaps 5% in private vehicles entering the city over the past six months.	比如，在纽约市，过去六个月中进入该城的私家车大约减少了5%。


Gridlock has abated, and you can almost get around the city by car these days.	交通大堵塞状况也已经有所缓解，这些天你几乎可以在这个城市开车四处走动。


But the response is slower elsewhere. It certainly is not getting any easier to drive around in places like São Paulo, Dubai, and Shanghai.	但是在其他地方这种反应就比较慢，例如在圣保罗、迪拜和上海这样的地方，你肯定不会觉得开车比以前容易些。


For a variety of reasons, mostly related to government intervention, few emerging market economies can be categorized as having flexible resource demand, so commodity price spikes are not having a particularly big effect on demand.	由于一系列原因－大多数和政府的干预相关，很少的新兴经济体的资源需求可以被视为是具有弹性的，所以商品的价格飙升对需求并没有特别显著的影响。


The central bankers who tell us not to worry about inflation point to relative wage stability.	那些告诉我们不用担心通货膨胀的中央银行官员，指出工资相对稳定。


Expansions usually start collapsing when labor gets too scarce and too expensive.	一般来说，当劳动力变得过于缺乏并且非常昂贵时，扩张就会开始终止。


But the current expansion is unusual in that, due to unique (in the modern era) circumstances, labor constraints are not the problem.	但是由于在现代独特的背景条件下，劳动力制约将不是个问题，所以当前的扩张是不正常的。


On the contrary, the effective global labor force keeps swelling.	相反，有效全球劳动力市场一直在膨胀。


No, this time, commodity resources are the primary constraint, rather than a secondary problem, as in the past.	所以，在这一次，商品资源是主要的制约，而不像过去那样，它只是个次要问题。


That is why commodity prices will just keep soaring until world growth slows down long enough for new supply and new conservation options to catch up with demand.	这就是直到全球增长的放缓期足够长以使新的供应和保护措施赶上需求之前，商品价格还会持续上涨的原因。


This runaway-train global economy has all the hallmarks of a giant crisis in the making – financial, political, and economic.	这辆暴走的全球经济火车具有正在酝酿中的巨大危机的所有特征－金融方面的、政治方面的以及经济方面的。


Will policymakers find a way to achieve the necessary international coordination?	政策制定者会找到一个达成必要的全球协调的方法吗？


Getting the diagnosis right is the place to start.	进行正确的诊断无疑是个起点。


The world as a whole needs tighter monetary and fiscal policy.	总体来说，全世界都需要紧缩的货币和财政政策。


It is time to put the brakes on this runaway train before it is too late.	现在是给这辆暴走的列车踩刹车的时候了，否则就为时太晚。


The Global Growth Quest	全球增长谜团


NEWPORT BEACH – What is the most urgent economic priority shared by countries as diverse as Brazil, China, Cyprus, France, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Korea, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States?	发自纽波特滩——请问一下各位读者，巴西、中国、塞浦路斯、法国、希腊、冰岛、爱尔兰、韩国、葡萄牙、英国和美国这些各不相同的国家都会最优先考虑的经济因素是什么？


It is not debt and deficits; and it is not dealing with the aftermath of irresponsible lending and borrowing.	首先并不是债务和赤字，也不是要处理一系列不负责任借贷行为留下的烂摊子。


Yes, these are relevant and, in a handful of cases, urgent.	当然，这些都与经济息息相关，而且在少数情况下还相当紧迫。


But the number one challenge facing these countries is to develop growth models that can provide more ample, well-paid, and secure jobs amid a secular re-alignment of the global economy.	但这些国家面临最紧迫的挑战是在长期重构的全球经济下发展出一个增长模式，以提供更充足，高薪且稳定的工作岗位。


For both theoretical and practical reasons, this is a challenge that will not be met easily or quickly.	从理论与实践上来说，这都是一个无法轻而易举解决的挑战。


And, when it is met, the process will most likely be partial and uneven, accentuating differences and posing tricky coordination issues at the national, regional, and global levels.	当面临这个挑战时，其过程很有可能是局部且不平衡的，它会突显出一些差异性，并在国家、地区及全球层面上产生棘手的协调问题。


The last few years have highlighted the declining potency of long-standing growth models.	过去几年已经显示了长期增长模型的效能在下降。


Some countries (for example, Greece and Portugal) relied on debt-financed government spending to fuel economy activity.	有些国家（比如希腊和葡萄牙）依赖于举债的政府支出来推动经济活动。


Others (think Cyprus, Iceland, Ireland, the UK, and the US) resorted to unsustainable surges in leverage among financial institutions to fund private-sector activities, sometimes almost irrespective of underlying fundamentals.	有些国家（试想塞浦路斯、冰岛、爱尔兰、英国和美国）则利用金融机构杠杆不可持续的短期提升来资助私人部门活动，有时甚至罔顾其经济基本面。


Still others (China and Korea) exploited seemingly limitless globalization and buoyant international trade to capture growing market shares.	还有一些国家（中国和韩国）则利用看似无限的全球化及活跃的国际贸易来夺得越来越多的市场份额。


And a final group rode China’s coattails.	而最后这一组以中国为先锋。


Recent data from the International Monetary Fund highlight these models’ simultaneous loss of effectiveness.	国际货币基金组织的近期数据突出显示了这些模式有效性的同时丧失。


Global growth averaged only 2.9% in the most recent five-year period, well below the level for virtually any such multi-year period going back to 1971.	最近五年全球增长平均仅为2. 9%，远低于1971年以来任何一个五年时期。


While emerging economies have out-performed developed countries, both have slowed.	虽然新兴经济体的表现优于发达国家，但这两种国家的经济都有所放缓。


Growth has been virtually flat in developed economies and, at 5.6% in the emerging world, is well below the 7.6% average in the previous five-year period.	发达国家的经济增长几乎停滞，而新兴国家则为5. 6%——远低于上一个五年段的7.


Highly leveraged systems in finance-dependent economies were the first to hit a wall, surprising many who had uncritically bought into the “Great Moderation” – the idea that macroeconomic and asset-market volatility had eased permanently.	那些金融依赖国的高杠杆系统是最先碰壁的，这让很多不加鉴别接受“大稳健（Great Moderation）”理念——意指宏观经济和资产市场的波动已经永久缓和的想法——的人非常诧异。


The bold policy action that countered the initial disorder prevented a global depression, but it encumbered public-sector balance sheets.	反击最初失调状况的大胆政策遏制了全球经济萧条，但它也拖累了公共部门的资产负债状况。


As a result, highly indebted governments were the next to hit the wall.	第二个碰壁的是那些高度负债的政府。


Some were pushed there by the high cost of containing the damage from banks’ irresponsible behavior.	有些是被银行不负责任行为所造成的伤害所累——因为政府要用高成本来处理这些损失。


Facing immediate credit rationing and large output contractions, they could be stabilized only by exceptional official financing from abroad, and, in some extreme cases, by defaulting on past commitments (including to bondholders and, most recently, bank depositors).	面对当即生效的信贷额度限制和大幅度的产出紧缩，它们只能利用国外特殊的官方融资来稳定局面，而在某些极端的例子里，得通过对过去的承诺进行违约来应付（包括对债券持有人，而最近还包括银行储户）。


For other countries, including the US, medium-term issues came to the fore.	对其它国家（包括美国）来说，中期问题开始凸显出来。


But, rather than catalyzing sensible policy discussions, these issues played into polarized and polarizing politics, creating new and more immediate headwinds to economic growth.	但这些问题并没有促进明智的政策讨论，却钻到了日渐分化的政治对立牛角尖之中，并产生了对经济增长更为直接的新阻力。


Meanwhile, a highly interdependent and (now) less dynamic world economy has been limiting the scope for external growth drivers.	与此同时，一个极度相互依存但（当前）缺乏动力的世界经济已经在限制其外部增长动力的作用范围。


Accordingly, even countries with sound balance sheets and manageable leverage have experienced a growth slowdown.	相应地，即使是资产负债表良好且杠杆可控的国家也遭遇了增长放缓。


The consequences have become painfully clear, especially in Western countries.	其后果变得异常明显，尤其是西方国家。


With insufficient growth to deleverage safely, social costs have been considerable.	由于增长不足无法安全地去杠杆化，因此产生了巨大的社会成本。


Alarmingly high youth unemployment, shrinking social safety nets, and under-investment in infrastructure and human capital are burdening current generations and, in a growing number of cases, will adversely affect future generations as well.	高得惊人的青年失业率、不断缩水的社会安全网和基础设施/人力资本投资不足正加重着当前一代人的负担，且在越来越多的情况下，也将会有害于未来一代人。


In the process, inequality has risen further.	在这个过程中，不平等已经进一步加剧。


And yet, despite the urgent need for major policy adaptations at the national level, and much better regional and global coordination, progress has been disappointing.	然而尽管在国家层面上急需重大政策适应性和更好的区域及全球协调，这种进展一直令人失望。


With the political context undermining the right mix of short- and longer-term measures, national policymaking has stumbled into partial approaches and unusual experimentation.	由于政治环境破坏了短期/长期措施的正确组合，国家政策制定陷入了局部方案以及异常的实验性举动之中。


The focus has been on buying time, rather than on implementing a sensible transition to a sustainable policy stance.	其焦点在于拖延时间而不是实施合理措施从而过渡到可持续的政策立场。


And potential national outcomes would be less uncertain if excessive inequality were not treated as an afterthought.	其实如果当初能及时考虑极度不平等问题的话，那么各国所面对的潜在状况就不会有如此大的不确定性。


The regional and multilateral dimensions are similarly inadequate.	区域和多边的国家行动也同样不大合理。


The absence of well-articulated common analyses and policy coordination has accentuated legitimacy deficits, encouraging leaders and publics to opt for partial narratives and eroding confidence in existing institutional structures.	缺乏良好衔接的共同分析和政策协调，就加剧了这些行动的合法性缺失状况，这就鼓励领导人和公众选择带偏见的述事立场并腐蚀人们对现行体制结构的信心。


Given these trends, the search for more robust growth models will take much longer and be more complicated than many recognize – especially as the world economy pivots away from unfettered globalization and high levels of leverage.	考虑到这些趋势，寻找更强健增长模式将需要更长的时间并且比很多人意识到的更为复杂——尤其是世界经济轴心在远离不受限制的全球化和高杠杆水平之时。


We should expect countries like the US to benefit from dynamic bottom-up entrepreneurship and traditional cyclical economic healing.	我们应该期望像美国这样的国家从动态的自下而上创业精神和传统经济周期性愈合中受益。


Notwithstanding a dysfunctional Congress, the private sector will increasingly convert a paralyzing uncertainty premium, which impedes much investment, into a less disruptive risk premium.	尽管国会功能失调，私营部门将会逐渐将一个瘫痪不确定的溢价——这妨碍了很多投资——转化成一种破坏性更小的风险溢价。


But, without a short-term economic turbo-charger, the recovery in growth and jobs will remain gradual, vulnerable to political and policy risks, and disproportionately beneficial to those with favorable initial endowments of wealth and globalized talents.	然而，如果没有一个短期的经济增压器，经济增长和工作的复苏将会较为缓慢而且极易受到政治和政策的风险影响，并会过度有利于那些拥有良好初始财富资源和全球化人才的国家。


Governments’ role will be different in countries like China, where officials will guide a shift from dependence on external sources of growth to more balanced demand.	其中政府所扮演的角色与中国这样的国家相比将会有极大不同——在中国官员会引导经济从外部资源依赖性增长转移到更加平衡的需求上。


As this requires some fundamental domestic re-alignments, the rebalancing will be both gradual and non-linear at times.	由于这需要一些根本性的国内再调整，重新平衡将会是渐进且非线性的。


The outlook for other economies is more uncertain.	其他国家的前景则更加不确定。


Undermined by a lack of policy flexibility, it will take a long time for countries like Cyprus to overcome the immediate shock of crisis and revamp their growth models.	由于缺乏政策灵活性，像塞浦路斯这样的国家需要很长的时间来克服危机的直接冲击并调整其增长模式。


Left to their own devices, these multi-speed dynamics would translate into higher global growth overall, coupled with larger internal and cross-country disparities – often exacerbated by demographics.	让其自由发展的话，这些多倍速前进的动力将会转化为更高的全球整体经济增长，并伴随着庞大的内部及跨国分化状况——问题通常因人口而加剧。


The question is whether existing governance systems can coordinate effective intervention to counter the resulting tensions.	问题在于现存的管理系统是否能够协调有效的干预以应对由此产生的紧张关系。


Simultaneous progress on both substance and process is needed.	如今就需要在内容和程序上的同时实现进步。


Parliaments and multilateral institutions must do a better job at facilitating cooperative policy implementation, which will require a willingness to reform outmoded institutions, including political lobbying.	议会和多边机构必须在促进合作政策实施这方面做得更好，这就需要具备改革陈旧体制的意愿——包括实施政治游说。


No one should underestimate the growth challenge facing today’s global economy.	任何人都不应低估今天全球经济所面对的经济增长挑战。


The stronger sectors (within countries and across them) will continue to recover, but not enough to pull up the global economy whole As a result, weaker sectors risk being surpassed at an ever-faster pace.	较强势的部门（无论在国内还是国际上）都会继续复苏，但并不足以拉动整个经济体。 结果较弱的部门会以更快的速度被超越。


These trends will become more difficult to reconcile and keep orderly if governance systems fail to adjust.	如果整个治理系统无法成功调整的话，这些趋势将会让经济更难恢复或保持有序。


The Wrong Growth Strategy for Japan	日本的错误增长战略


CAMBRIDGE – Japan’s new government, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, could be about to shoot itself in the foot.	美国剑桥—以安倍晋三为首相的日本新政府大概要搬起石头砸自己的脚了。