Elected officials everywhere must adjust, to varying degrees, to fulfill the expectations of those who put them in office.	不管身属哪个国家，当选官员必须灵活做出各种程度的调整以满足让他们当选的选民的期望。


Intellectuals, on the other hand, have a special obligation to think the unthinkable and speak the unspeakable.	另一方面，知识分子身负特殊的使命——想不可想之物，说不可说之话。


They are supposed to consider all possibilities, even disagreeable ones, and prepare the population for prospective developments.	他们应该考虑一切可能性，即便令人讨厌也不能放过，并促使国民为前景发展做好准备。


Honest discussion of unpopular ideas is a key feature of an open society.	诚实地讨论不受欢迎的观点是开放社会的关键特征。


But, in the US, many intellectuals are not fulfilling this obligation.	但是，在美国，许多知识分子没有承担起这一责任。


Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, suggested recently that the US “could already be in the second decade of another American century.”	对外关系委员会主席哈斯（Richard Haass）最近表示美国“或许已经进入又一个美国世纪的第二个十年。


Likewise, Clyde Prestowitz, the president of the Economic Strategy Institute, has said that “this century may well wind up being another American century.”	”类似地，经济战略研究所主席普雷托维茨（Clyde Prestowitz）说“本世纪将是另一个美国世纪。 ”


To be sure, such predictions may well prove accurate; if they do, the rest of the world will benefit.	平心而论，这样的预测最终可能被证明是正确的； 果真如此的话，世界其他地区将有所受益。


A strong and dynamic US economy, reinvigorated by cheap shale gas and accelerating innovation, would rejuvenate the global economy as a whole.	受廉价页岩气和创新加速提振的强大而充满活力的美国经济能让整个全球经济获得动力。


But Americans are more than ready for this outcome; no preparation is needed.	但美国早已习惯了这一结果； 根本不需要为此做准备。


If the world’s center of gravity shifts to Asia, however, Americans will be woefully unprepared.	但是，如果世界中心转移到亚洲，美国人将措手不及。


Many Americans remain shockingly unaware of how much the rest of the world, especially Asia, has progressed.	许多美国人对世界其他地区，特别是亚洲的进步仍然茫然无知。


Americans need to be told a simple, mathematical truth.	美国人需要知道一个简单的数学事实。


With 3% of the world’s population, the US can no longer dominate the rest of the world, because Asians, with 60% of the world’s population, are no longer underperforming.	只占世界人口3%的美国无法继续主宰世界其他地区，因为占世界人口60%的亚洲不再落后。


But the belief that America is the only virtuous country, the sole beacon of light in a dark and unstable world, continues to shape many Americans’ worldview.	但美国是唯一正确之国、动荡世界一片黑暗中的唯一一丝曙光，这样的观念仍在决定很多美国人的世界观。


American intellectuals’ failure to challenge these ideas – and to help the US population shed complacent attitudes based on ignorance – perpetuates a culture of coddling the public.	美国知识分子没能挑战这些思想——并帮助美国人民抵制产生自无知的自大态度——这让溺爱公众的文化永久化了。


But, while Americans tend to receive only good news, Asia’s rise is not really bad news.	但是，尽管美国人只喜欢听好话，亚洲的崛起实际上却并非坏消息。


The US should recognize that Asian countries are seeking not to dominate the West, but to emulate it.	美国应该认识到亚洲国家并不寻求主宰西方，而是模仿西方。


They seek to build strong and dynamic middle classes and to achieve the kind of peace, stability, and prosperity that the West has long enjoyed.	它们寻求建立强大而有活力的中产阶级以实现西方早已实现的和平、稳定和繁荣等目标。


This deep social and intellectual transformation underway in Asia promises to catapult it from economic power to global leadership.	亚洲的这一深刻社会和智识转型极有可能让它从经济强势迈向全球领导。


China, which remains a closed society in many ways, has an open mind, whereas the US is an open society with a closed mind.	在很多方面仍是封闭社会的中国已经解放了思想，而美国却是思想封闭的开放社会。


With Asia’s middle class set to skyrocket from roughly 500 million people today to 1.75 billion by 2020, the US will not be able to avoid the global economy’s new realities for much longer.	亚洲中产阶级将从当前的5亿人大幅增加到2020年的17. 5亿人，美国无法长时间对全球经济新现实视而不见。


The world is poised to undergo one of the most dramatic power shifts in human history.	世界必将经历人类历史上最波澜壮阔的实力变迁。


In order to be prepared for the transformation, Americans must abandon ingrained ideas and old assumptions, and liberate unthinkable thoughts.	为了为这一变迁做好准备，美国人必须抛弃根深蒂固的思想和旧观念，解放不可想象的思想。


That is the challenge facing American public intellectuals today.	这就是美国公共知识分子今天面临的挑战。


The Emerging Economies’ Eurozone Crisis	新兴经济体的欧元区危机


WASHINGTON, DC – Most of today’s economic institutions, from money to banking, evolved over many years – the unintended consequences of decisions by millions of individuals.	华盛顿—今天的大部分经济制度——从货币到银行——都是经过多年的演化形成的，是千百万个人决策的不经意的结果。


By contrast, the eurozone stands out for being a deliberate creation.	相反，欧元区是有意的产物。


It is arguably the world’s second-largest, deliberately-planned economic structure, after Communism.	它是当今世界第二大有意识的计划经济结构，仅次于共产主义。


The eurozone is a remarkable experiment, a genuine vanguard of global progress.	欧元区是一个伟大实验，全球进步的真正先驱。


As 2012 comes to a close, it is in trouble, and every effort must be made to nurture and strengthen it.	2012年即将结束，而欧元区陷入了麻烦，我们必须竭尽所能支持和强化它。


By the second half of 2011, it was evident that emerging economies, which had weathered the financial crisis that began in 2008 moderately well, were taking on water as the eurozone crisis deepened.	2011年下半年，有证据表明新兴经济体——它们在抵御2008年爆发的金融危机中表现略好——随着欧元区危机的深入而受到了拖累。


Growth slowed sharply in Brazil, India, China, and other countries.	巴西、印度、中国和其他国家的增长显著放缓。


Central banks acted as lenders of last resort, thereby averting a major crisis. In December 2011 and February 2012, the European Central Bank announced the long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), whereby European banks were lent around €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in two tranches.	中央银行以最后贷款人的角色站了出来，从而避免了大危机：2011年12月和2012年2月，欧洲央行公布了长期再融资操作（LTRO），欧洲银行可以从中获得两个级别约1万亿欧元的贷款。


Then, in July, came ECB President Mario Draghi’s famous assurance to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.	接着，7月，欧洲央行行长德拉吉抛出了著名的“竭尽所能”拯救欧元论。


The United States Federal Reserve injected liquidity, as did other advanced countries’ central banks.	美联储和其他发达国家央行也纷纷注入流动性。


There was a collective sigh of relief, financial markets stabilized, and industrial-production rebounded.	人们集体舒了口气，金融市场稳定了下来，工业产出也开始反弹。


The question on everyone’s mind now is whether this post-storm calm will last, allowing the global economy to pick up.	如今，所有人脑海里的问题是暴风后的平静是否能够持续下去，让全球经济实现复苏。


Nowhere does this question loom larger than in developing and emerging economies, which are outside the main theater of the crisis, but are more precariously positioned than the advanced countries.	这一问题在发展中和新兴经济体最大，它们身处危机主舞台之外，但比发达国家更不安全。


Many had only recently begun to grow rapidly, and, with vast reservoirs of poor people, economic growth has a moral urgency that it does not have in rich countries.	许多国家最近才开始快速增长，由于贫困人口数量巨大，经济增长在这些国家是一种道德上的紧迫要求，这一点与发达国家不同。


So, will the global economy stage a sustained recovery?	那么，全球经济会进入可持续复苏吗？


Examining the past as carefully as I can, and aware of the risks of augury, my answer has to be no.	我仔细考察了历史，也清晰地辨识了预兆，我的答案是否定的。


Until 2015, the outlook is gloomy for Europe and, by extension, for the emerging and developing economies.	在2015年之前，欧洲——亦可以推及新兴和发展中经济体——前景都不容乐观。


The injection of liquidity that occurred over the last year was the right policy.	去年的流动性注入是正确的政策。


But it only bought time; it did not solve the problem.	但这只能赢得时间； 不能解决问题。


And time is running out.	而时间也正在耗尽。


Unfortunately, most people have an instinctive propensity to look away from approaching problems until they are very close.	不幸的是，大多数人有不见黄河心不死的本能倾向。


America’s “fiscal cliff,” for example, was long in coming, but we are scrambling to avoid it only now.	比如，美国的“财政赤字”很早之前便已存在，但我们直到现在才开始忙不迭地避免它的发生。


So we should take early stock of the fact that there is another problem coming our way, which may be called (to give it the resonance of a coming storm) Edward – the “European Debt Wall and Repayment Deadline.”	因此，我们应该及早认识到另一个问题也在朝我们逼近这一事实，（为了引起对未来风暴的共鸣，）我们可以称之为“爱德华”（Edward）——欧洲债务墙和偿付期限（European Debt Wall and Repayment Deadline）。


The LTRO money that banks received on such easy terms, we must recall, took the form of three-year loans, which implies a wall of debt repayment in December 2014 and February 2015.	我们必须记住，银行轻而易举就以三年期贷款的形式获得了LTRO资金，这意味着在2014年12月至2015年2月，它们将面临债务偿付墙。


If Europe succeeds in making major fiscal and banking reforms and gets its economy in order, Edward will lose steam.	如果欧洲成功地实施了大规模财政和银行改革，并让经济重回正轨，那么爱德华将失去能量。


If not, the crisis will persist, and Europe will be rocked as Edward makes landfall by the end of 2014.	若非如此，则危机将持续，爱德华将在2014年末登陆，欧洲将被摧毁。


Where does that leave developing countries?	这会给发展中国家带来什么？


The US and Europe are the world’s two largest economic powerhouses.	美国和欧洲是世界上最大的两个经济发动机。


Their slowdown will have an adverse impact on all emerging economies.	它们的减速将给所有新兴经济体带来消极影响。


Moreover, the US and Europe have already used large doses of fiscal stimulus, which shares an uncanny similarity to antibiotics.	此外，美国和欧洲现已实施了大剂量的财政刺激，因此都产生了可怕的抗药性。


Administered over a short duration, it can be a powerful antidote; but, used repeatedly over too long a period, the side effects can outstrip the benefits.	短期使用，财政刺激是有效的治疗手段，但长期反复���用，其副作用会盖过药效。


Consider the case of India.	就拿印度来说吧。


Since 2009, India has been expanding its deficit as a deliberate measure to counter its economic slowdown.	2009年以来，印度一直在扩张赤字，这是为了对抗经济减速有意为之。


Because fiscal expansion followed several years of restraint, it was very effective in spurring demand and output growth.	因为财政扩张是在多年的抑制之后发生的，因此在刺激需求和产出增长方面卓有成效。


But now the scope for further expansion is limited.	但是，如今，后续扩张的规模已相当有限。


Unlike advanced countries, most emerging economies are exhibiting inflationary pressures, which could be exacerbated by another round of stimulus spending.	与发达国家不同，大部分新兴经济体都表现出通胀压力，这一压力会因为新的刺激性支出而野花。


So the short-run situation remains precarious.	因此短期形势仍然严峻。


Nevertheless, for emerging economies, the medium- to long-term prospects are bright.	尽管如此，对新兴经济体来说，中期和长期前景是光明的。


Countries that are saving a substantial amount, investing in human capital, and providing a modicum of good governance should resume their previous rapid growth.	大量储蓄、投资人力资本和能够提供些许良好治理的国家应能回到此前的快速增长节奏中。


India, for example, is saving and investing well over 30% of its GDP, devoting a significant share of these resources to infrastructure.	比如，印度的储蓄和投资就大大高于GDP的30%，将这笔资源中的一大块投入到基础设施中。


Its entrepreneurial capacity is expanding.	其创业能力在扩张。


In several recent years, India’s outward direct investment in Britain has exceeded inward direct investment from Britain.	最近几年来，印度对英国投资超过了英国对印度投资。


So, once the crisis is over, annual growth should rebound to its earlier rate of more than 8%.	因此，一旦危机过去，年增长将反弹回早先的每年8%的水平。


Investors seem to be taking this view to heart.	投资者似乎牢牢地记着这一点。


They have been tightfisted when it comes to short-term equity investments.	对于短期股票投资，他们颇为吝啬。


But, when it comes to long-term direct investment, they committed a record-high $43.8 billion to India in 2011-2012.	但是，对于长期直接投资，他们在2011—2012年向印度投入了438亿美元。


Beyond the current crisis, the prospect appears to be similar in other major emerging economies, including Brazil, China, and Indonesia.	除了当前危机，其他新兴经济体的前景也差不多，包括巴西、中国和印尼。


Easing short-term jitters and paving the way for further developing-country growth will require a clear and credible program for returning high-income economies, especially those in Europe, to a sustainable fiscal path.	放松短期紧绷的神经，为发展中国家的后续增长扫清道路要求回归的高收入国家有一个清晰可信的走向可持续财政之路的计划，特别是欧洲国家。


It will be a bumpy road ahead, requiring careful navigation and bold policy implementation.	前路不平，需要小心腾挪和果断的政策实施。


The Diabetes Watch	追踪糖尿病


WELLINGTON – The world is currently in the grip of a diabetes epidemic.	发自惠灵顿——我们的世界正在陷入一场糖尿病不断蔓延的漩涡之中。


A recent major study by Majid Ezzati and colleagues from Imperial College London and Harvard University found that the number of adults with type 2 diabetes increased from an estimated 153 million in 1980 to 347 million in 2008.	最近由马吉德·伊扎蒂与其伦敦帝国理工学院和哈佛大学的同僚们共同进行的一项重要研究显示：患有二型糖尿病鸟的成年人数量已经从1980年的约1. 53亿上升到2008年的约3.


The number could be 370 million today.	47亿。 而今年这个数字可能达到3.


Every region of the world is affected, although the epidemic is growing most rapidly in Oceania and least rapidly in East Asia.	虽然该疾病的散播速度在大洋洲最快而东亚最慢，但全球各地无一例外都受到了影响。


Globally, the type 2 diabetes epidemic has been growing in lockstep with rising obesity levels.	从全球范围来看，二型糖尿病的增长是与肥胖水平的增长相一致的。


This is not surprising – an increase in body fat and a decrease in physical activity are the direct causes of type 2 (as opposed to type 1) diabetes.	这毫不奇怪，因为体内脂肪的增长与体力活动的下降正是二型糖尿病（一型则相反）的直接成因。


In fact, much of the health effects of obesity and physical inactivity are mediated through diabetes.	事实上，肥胖和缺乏运动所导致的大部分健康影响都会通过糖尿病来体现。


These health effects are serious.	这些影响可以相当严重。


Diabetes already is the major cause of kidney failure, blindness, and lower-limb amputation in many countries, and a major cause of heart attacks and strokes.	在世界许多国家糖尿病已经成为肾衰竭，失明和下肢截肢的主要原因，同时也是引发心脏病和中风的主要因素。


Despite this, surveillance of diabetes remains relatively undeveloped throughout the world, even in high-income countries.	即便如此，全球对糖尿病的监测水平依然相当不足，甚至在某些高收入国家也是如此。


Public-health surveillance is “the ongoing systematic collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of health data for the purpose of preventing and controlling disease” – in short, information for action.	公共卫生监测就是“为了防止和控制疾病而持续系统进行的健康数据收集，分析，解读和传播。 ”——简而言之，就是采取行动所需的信息。


There is nothing in this definition that restricts surveillance to communicable diseases, yet in practice this has generally been the case. The reasons are not hard to find.	上述定义并未将其适用范围限制在传染性疾病上，但在实际操作中却经常是如此执行的。


Communicable disease outbreaks occur over days to weeks (or at the most, months); the danger is “clear and present”; and prevention and control generally requires intervention by the state – the quarantine of victims, tracing and immunization of contacts, or elimination of environmental sources of the infectious agent.	原因其实不难理解：传染性疾病的爆发往往会在几天到几周（最多几个月）内发生，所造成的危险也是“明确而可见的”； 同时对这类疾病的防治一般都需要国家力量的介入——对发病者的检疫，对接触者的追踪和免疫，或者消灭传染原所寄生的环境源头。


The situation regarding chronic diseases like diabetes is very different.	而类似糖尿病这类慢性疾病方面的情况则非常不同。 这类疾病会在数年乃至数十年间无声蔓延；


The epidemic happens silently over years or decades; the danger is either not recognized or not considered avoidable; and action is often seen as the responsibility of the individual (lifestyle modification) or health-care system (pharmaceutical prescription), rather than the state.	其造成的危险要么尚未得到认知，要么就被认为是无法避免的； 而一般认为应该对此负责的不是国家，而是个人（生活方式改进）或者是医疗系统（医疗处方）。


Yet effective chronic disease surveillance can save lives.	但有效的慢性病监测是可以拯救生命的。


If disease trends are monitored, along with patients’ responses to treatment and the population’s exposure to risk factors, the success or failure of policies designed to prevent or control chronic diseases can be evaluated, resource allocation can be rationally prioritized, and the public can be kept fully informed of the risks that they face.	如果发病趋势能受到监测，同时评估病人对治疗的反应以及人口面对的风险因素，那么相关慢性病防治政策的成败就能得到检验，医疗资源也能得到合理分配，而公众也能明确知晓自身所面对的风险。


Recognizing this, in December 2005 the New York City Board of Health mandated the laboratory reporting of test results for glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) – a biomarker for diabetes and a key indicator of blood glucose control – thereby creating the world’s first population-based diabetes registry.	基于这一认识，纽约市卫生委员会于2005年12月授权设立实验室糖化血红蛋白——该蛋白是糖尿病的生物标记以及血糖控制的关键指标——的检测结果报告机制，并因此建立了全球第一个人口糖尿病档案登记系统。


Mandatory laboratory reporting of HbA1c results (along with basic demographic data) for a defined population (New York City residents) allowed New York’s Department of Health to monitor trends in diabetes prevalence, assess testing coverage, and examine health-care use and glycemic control of residents living with diabetes.	这些针对某一特定人口（纽约市居民）的监测报告（加上基本的人口统计学数据）使卫生委员会得以监测糖尿病流行趋势，评估检测覆盖情况并考察患糖尿病居民的卫生系统使用状况和血糖控制水平。


Beyond these population-based surveillance functions, the registry was able to support patient care by ensuring that individual health-care providers and patients were made aware of elevated or rising HbA1c levels.	除了这些人口监测功能之外，该登记系统还能使个人健康服务提供者和病人同时了解糖化血红蛋白的升降情况，进而对病人治疗方案提供支持。


Both the patient-support function and the surveillance function required use of a unique patient identifier, so that letters could be mailed to patients and tests from the same patient could be linked over time.	但无论是病人支持还是监测功能都需要一个特殊的病人标识物，并以此向病人发送追踪信件并将来自同一病人的监测报告前后联系起来。


In 2009, Thomas Frieden and colleagues from the New York City Board of Health reviewed the registry’s first four years of operation and concluded that it was performing well.	纽约市卫生委员会的汤玛斯·弗里登及其同僚们对该系统头四年的运作进行了检讨并得出了运作良好的结论。


Getting all laboratories to report regularly and completely, however, proved challenging and not all health-care providers and patients proved willing to participate.	但同时要求所有实验室定期并完整提交监测报告的做法也受到了挑战，也不是所有的医疗服务提供者和病人都愿意参与其中。


The Board of Health’s initiative has been widely praised as exemplifying the application of classical communicable-disease surveillance-and-control tools to a chronic disease.	卫生委员会的这一创举同时也受到了广泛欢迎，因为它为经典传染性疾病监控工具在慢性疾病方面的应用提供了范例。


Other commentators, however, have criticized the registry for potentially compromising patient confidentiality and privacy, and even for disrupting the relationship between patients and their doctors.	但也有其他评论者批评这一登记制度可能会侵犯患者的保密和个人私隐，甚至可能挑拨医患关系。


While these criticisms may or may not be justified, it is probably true to say that the New York City diabetes registry, though highly innovative, is at best an interim solution.	但不管这些批评是否中肯，我们大体可以确定的是纽约市糖尿病登记制度虽然极富创新性，却只是一个最佳的过渡方案。


Rather than relying on laboratory reporting of a single biomarker, an ideal chronic-disease surveillance system would extract all necessary data directly from the patient record.	除了依赖实验室对某一单一生物标记的报告之外，一个直接从病人病历中提取所需数据的慢性病监测系统才是最理想的。


Any diagnosis of diabetes, or subsequent monitoring of disease progression, requires a medical consultation and hence an entry into the patient record – and so into the practice’s patient-management information system.	任何对糖尿病的诊断或是随后的病情发展监测都需要回顾患者医疗记录并调阅病历——因此进入诊所的患者管理信息系统。


Logically, the surveillance system should operate by extracting the entire subset of data required for surveillance purposes from each health-care provider’s patient management information system (“front-end capture”).	逻辑上该监测系统应当从每一个医疗服务提供者的信息管理系统中提取所有服务于监测目的的所有数据（即“前端捕捉”）。


This data would then be securely transferred (electronically) to a suitable data warehouse.	该数据随后将被安全地（以电子方式）转移到一个合适的数据存储点。


After appropriate cleaning (checking for missing data, correcting coding errors), and anonymizing, the data would be available for access and querying.	在恰当地修正（检查数据丢失，更正译码错误）并隐匿患者私人信息后，该数据应当开放查询。


Given appropriate statistical analysis and careful interpretation, useful reports could be generated for surveillance purposes and, if desired, for patient-care support as well (using encrypted unique patient identifiers to preserve confidentiality of personal information).	在恰当统计分析和谨慎诠释之后，就将形成有利于监测的有用报告，最好还可以被用于患者支持（用加密的专属患者标识物来保证个人信息的私密性）。


In view of the rising burden of diabetes and other chronic diseases throughout the world, urgent attention must be devoted to strengthening surveillance systems for noncommunicable diseases at all levels – from local practices to global institutions.	鉴于糖尿病和其他慢性疾病为世界带来的负担日渐增大，我们也必须尽快将注意力放在如何加强各级医疗单位——无论是地方诊所还是国际机构——的非传染性疾病监控系统之上。


The Diet Debacle	饮食灾难


SAN FRANCISCO – Two seemingly benign nutritional maxims are at the root of all dietary evil: A calorie is a calorie, and You are what you eat. Both ideas are now so entrenched in public consciousness that they have become virtually unassailable.	旧金山—两大看起来无可指摘的营养箴言是所有饮食不健康的根源：“一卡（路里）就是一卡”和“吃啥变啥”。 这两个说法在公众心中已是根深蒂固、不容挑战。


As a result, the food industry, aided and abetted by ostensibly well-meaning scientists and politicians, has afflicted humankind with the plague of chronic metabolic disease, which threatens to bankrupt health care worldwide.	结果，食品行业在道貌岸然的科学家和政客的协助和教唆下，让人类陷入了慢性新陈代谢病的折磨，让全球医保陷入了破产危险。


The United States currently spends $147 billion on obesity-related health care annually.	如今，美国每年要花费1470亿美元用于与肥胖有关的医疗。


Previously, one could have argued that these were affluent countries’ diseases, but the United Nations announced last year that chronic metabolic disease (including diabetes, heart disease, cancer, and dementia) is a bigger threat to the developing world than is infectious disease, including HIV.	从前，人们会说，肥胖是富贵病，但去年联合国宣称慢性新陈代谢病（包括糖尿病、心脏病、癌症和痴呆症）对发展中国家的威胁要甚于包括艾滋病在内的传染病。


These two nutritional maxims give credence to the food industry’s self-serving corollaries: If a calorie is a calorie, then any food can be part of a balanced diet; and, if we are what we eat, then everyone chooses what they eat.	前述两大营养箴言给了食品行业自私的理由：既然一卡是一卡，那么任何食物都可以成为均衡膳食的组成部分； 如果吃啥变啥，那么人人选择自己吃什么。


Again, both are misleading.	这两种观点都是错的。


If one’s weight really is a matter of personal responsibility, how can we explain toddler obesity?	如果你的重量真的只是你个人的责任，那么如何解释学龄前肥胖现象？


Indeed, the US has an obesity epidemic in six-month-olds.	事实上，在美国，6个月大婴儿肥胖是普遍现象。


They don’t diet or exercise.	婴儿不会照单饮食，也不会锻炼。


Conversely, up to 40% of normal-weight people have chronic metabolic disease.	相反，40%体重正常人士身患慢性新陈代谢病。


Something else is going on.	肯定有其他东西在起作用。


Consider the following diets: Atkins (all fat and no carbohydrates); traditional Japanese (all carbohydrates and little fat); and Ornish (even less fat and carbohydrates with lots of fiber).	我们来看一下以下食谱：阿特金斯饮食（Atkins，戒除糖分，脂肪随意）； 传统日本饮食（糖分随意，极少量脂肪）；


All three help to maintain, and in some cases even improve, metabolic health, because the liver has to deal with only one energy source at a time.	以及奥尼什饮食（Ornish，大量纤维，更少脂肪和糖分）。 这三种食谱都有助于维持（有时甚至能改善）代谢健康，因为肝脏每次只需处理一种能源。


That is how human bodies are designed to metabolize food.	人类的身体原本就是这样进行食物新陈代谢的。


Our hunter ancestors ate fat, which was transported to the liver and broken down by the lipolytic pathway to deliver fatty acids to the mitochondria (the subcellular structures that burn food to create energy).	我们的游猎祖先吃脂肪，脂肪被送到肝脏，通过脂肪分解路径分解为脂肪酸并送入线粒体（燃烧食物提供能量的亚细胞结构）。


On the occasion of a big kill, any excess dietary fatty acids were packaged into low-density lipoproteins and transported out of the liver to be stored in peripheral fat tissue.	在猎到大型猎物时，多余的摄入脂肪酸被组合成低密度脂蛋白并被送出肝脏储存于外围脂肪组织中。


As a result, our forebears’ livers stayed healthy.	因此，我们的祖先肝脏十分健康。


Meanwhile, our gatherer ancestors ate carbohydrates (polymers of glucose), which was also transported to the liver, via the glycolytic pathway, and broken down for energy.	与此同时，我们的采集祖先吃的是碳水化合物（葡萄糖聚合物），它们也被送到肝脏，通过糖分分解路径分解为能量。


Any excess glucose stimulated the pancreas to release insulin, which transported glucose into peripheral fat tissue, and which also caused the liver to store glucose as glycogen (liver starch).	多余的葡萄糖会刺激胰腺分泌胰岛素，胰岛素将葡萄糖变为周边脂肪组织，或让肝脏将葡萄糖储存为糖元（肝淀粉）。


So their livers also stayed healthy.	因此，他们的肝脏也很健康。


And nature did its part by supplying all naturally occurring foodstuffs with either fat or carbohydrate as the energy source, not both.	大自然很负责人，所有天然食物要么以脂肪，要么以碳水化合物为能量源，而不会两者兼具。


Even fatty fruits – coconut, olives, avocados – are low in carbohydrate.	即使是脂肪水果——椰子、橄榄、鳄梨等——碳水化合物的含量也十分低。


Our metabolisms started to malfunction when humans began consuming fat and carbohydrates at the same meal.	当人类开始在一顿饭里同时摄入脂肪和碳水化合物时，我们的新城代谢就开始紊乱了。


The liver mitochondria could not keep up with the energy onslaught, and had no choice but to employ a little-used escape valve called “de novo lipogenesis” (new fat-making) to turn excess energy substrate into liver fat.	肝脏线粒体无法处理能量的猛攻，只能动用很少使用的安全阀，即所谓的“脂肪再生”（de novo lipogenesis），将多余的能量基础转变为肝脂肪。


Liver fat mucks up the workings of the liver.	肝脂肪会紊乱肝脏的功能。


It is the root cause of the phenomenon known as “insulin resistance” and the primary process that drives chronic metabolic disease.	它是所谓的“胰岛素抵抗”现象的根源，也是导致慢性新陈代谢病的主要过程。


In other words, neither fat nor carbohydrates are problematic – until they are combined.	换句话说，脂肪也好，碳水化合物也好，都没有问题，但把它们放一起问题就有问题了。


The food industry does precisely that, mixing more of both into the Western diet for palatability and shelf life, thereby intensifying insulin resistance and chronic metabolic disease.	食品行业正是这么做的，为了改善口感、延长保质期，西方饮食越来越多的将两者同时纳入，从而恶化了胰岛素抵抗和慢性新陈代谢病。


But there is one exception to this formulation: sugar.	但这种模式也有一个例外：糖。


Sucrose and high-fructose corn syrup are comprised of one molecule of glucose (not especially sweet) and one molecule of fructose (very sweet).	蔗糖和高果糖玉米糖浆由单体葡萄糖（不太甜）和果糖（很甜）按1:1的比例合成而成。


While glucose is metabolized by the glycolytic pathway, fructose is metabolized by the lipolytic pathway, and is not insulin-regulated.	葡萄糖可以由糖分解路径分解，但果糖是由脂肪分解路径分解的，而且胰岛素对它无效。


Thus, when sugar is ingested in excess, the liver mitochondria are so overwhelmed that they have no choice but to build liver fat.	因此，如果你吃糖太多，肝脏线粒体就应付不过来，只能堆积肝脂肪。


Today, 33% of Americans have a fatty liver, which causes chronic metabolic disease.	如今，33%的美国人有脂肪肝，而脂肪肝会引起慢性新陈代谢病。


Prior to 1900, Americans consumed less than 30 grams of sugar per day, or about 6% of total calories.	1900年以前，美国人每天的糖摄入量少于30克，通过糖提供的卡路里大约只占总量的6%。


In 1977, it was 75 grams/day, and in 1994, up to 110 grams/day.	1977年，糖摄入量达到了75克/天，1994年更是上升为110克/天。


Currently, adolescents average 150 grams/day (roughly 30% of total calories) – a five-fold increase in one century, and a two-fold increase in a generation.	如今，青少年每天的要吃150克糖（占总热量摄入的近30%），糖摄入量在一个世纪上升了五倍，在一代人的时间里上升了两倍。


In the past 50 years, consumption of sugar has also doubled worldwide.	就全世界而言，糖消费量在过去五十年也翻了一番。


Worse yet, other than the ephemeral pleasure that it provides, there is not a single biochemical process that requires dietary fructose; it is a vestigial nutrient, left over from the evolutionary differentiation between plants and animals.	更糟糕的是，除了给你带来短暂快感之外，果糖不能为任何一个新陈代谢过程所用； 它是一种退化的营养物，是植物和动物进化分歧的遗留产物。


It is therefore clear that a calorie is not a calorie.	因此，很显然，此一卡与彼一卡不是同一卡。


Fats, carbohydrates, fructose, and glucose are all metabolized differently in the body.	脂肪、碳水化合物、果糖和葡萄糖在人体内的新陈代谢是不同的。


Furthermore, you are what you do with what you eat.Combining fat and carbohydrate places high demands on the metabolic process.	此外，你是啥并不光取决于你吃啥，还取决于你做啥。 脂肪加碳水化合物的组合给新陈代谢提出了太高的要求。


And adding sugar is particularly egregious.	如果再加上糖果，新陈代谢系统就更难胜任了。


Indeed, while food companies would have you believe that sugar can be part of a balanced diet, the bottom line is that they have created an unbalanced one.	事实上，即使食品公司让你相信糖果可以称为均衡膳食的组成部分，它们也得有个底线：创造出一种非均衡膳食。


Of the 600,000 food items available in the US, 80% are laced with added sugar.	在美国人可以找到的60万种食材中，80%都添加了糖。


People cannot be held responsible for what they put in their mouths when their choices have been co-opted.	人们的食品选择是身不由己的，���本无法管住放进嘴里的东西。


And this brings us back to those obese toddlers.	而这让我们回过头来管住学龄前小胖墩们。 软饮料中的果糖含量为5.


The fructose content of a soft drink is 5.3%.	3%。 当然，许多父母禁止孩子喝软饮料。


Of course, many parents might refuse to give soft drinks to their children, but the fructose content of soy formula is 5.1%, and 6% for juice.	但大豆配方奶粉的果糖含量也有5. 1%，果汁则为6%。


We have a long way to go to debunk dangerous nutritional dogmas.	在揭穿危险营养教条方面，我们依然任重道远。


Until we do, we will make little headway in reversing an imminent medical and economic disaster.	但惟其如此，我们才能在阻止即将到来的卫生和经济灾难方面有所作为。


The Digital War on Poverty	以数字战对付贫困


NEW YORK – The digital divide is beginning to close.	纽约 – 数字技术方面的鸿沟已经开始慢慢消失了。


The flow of digital information – through mobile phones, text messaging, and the Internet – is now reaching the world’s masses, even in the poorest countries, bringing with it a revolution in economics, politics, and society.	即使是在最穷的国家里，世界大众也能接触到通过手机、短信和英特网流动的数字信息，这带来了经济、政治和社会的一场革命。


Extreme poverty is almost synonymous with extreme isolation, especially rural isolation.	极度的贫困几乎是极度的闭塞的代名词，对农村地区的闭塞来说，这尤其如此。


But mobile phones and wireless Internet end isolation, and will therefore prove to be the most transformative technology of economic development of our time.	但是，手机和无线英特网终止了这种闭塞，并因此证明它们是这个时代经济发展的最能引起巨变的技术。


The digital divide is ending not through a burst of civic responsibility, but mainly through market forces.	结束这种数字技术方面的鸿沟并不是通过公民责任心的井喷而完成的，而主要是通过市场的力量。


Mobile phone technology is so powerful, and costs so little per unit of data transmission, that it has proved possible to sell mobile phone access to the poor.	手机技术是如此有威力，而每次数据传输的费用是如此之低，所以已经被证实，穷人是可能买得起手机和手机服务的。


There are now more than 3.3 billion subscribers in the world, roughly one for every two people on the planet.	现今世界上有超过33亿人使用手机，地球上大约二个人之中就有一个人。


Moreover, market penetration in poor countries is rising sharply.	更有甚者，手机在贫穷国家的市场占有率正在大幅提高。


India has around 300 million subscribers, with subscriptions rising by a stunning eight million or more per month.	印度有大约三亿的手机用户，每个月新手机用户人数以令人吃惊的八百万户甚至更高的数字增长。


Brazil now has more than 130 million subscribers, and Indonesia has roughly 120 million.	巴西现在有超过一亿三千万的手机用户，而印尼大约有一亿二千万。


In Africa, which contains the world’s poorest countries, the market is soaring, with more than 280 million subscribers.	而拥有世界上最贫困的国家的非洲，市场也正在高速发展，现已有二亿八千万用户。


Mobile phones are now ubiquitous in villages as well as cities.	移动电话无论在乡村还是在城市都无处不在。


If an individual does not have a cell phone, they almost surely know someone who does.	如果你自己没有手机，那肯定认识拥有手机的人。


Probably a significant majority of Africans have at least emergency access to a cell phone, either their own, a neighbor’s, or one at a commercial kiosk.	可能绝大部分的非洲人至少可以在紧急情况下能找到手机并使用手机 - 或是他们自己的手机，或是朋友的手机，或是商业性的电话服务处。


Even more remarkable is the continuing “convergence” of digital information: wireless systems increasingly link mobile phones with the Internet, personal computers, and information services of all kinds. The array of benefits is stunning.	更妙的事情是数字信息的不断融合：无线系统不断地把英特网、个人电脑以及各种各样的信息服务连接在一起，其带来的各种的好处让人啧啧称奇。


The rural poor in more and more of the world now have access to wireless banking and payments systems, such as Kenya’s famous M-PESA system, which allows money transfers through the phone.	世界上越来越多地区的农村贫困人口现在能享受到无线银行和支付系统服务，比如肯尼亚著名的M-PESA系统，这个系统允许在电话上转账。


The information carried on the new networks spans public health, medical care, education, banking, commerce, and entertainment, in addition to communications among family and friends.	除了家人和朋友之间的通讯之外，在新网络上传输的信息涉及了公共健康、医学治疗、教育、银行服务、商业以及娱乐等行业。


India, home to world-leading software engineers, high-tech companies, and a vast and densely populated rural economy of some 700 million poor people in need of connectivity of all kinds, has naturally been a pioneer of digital-led economic development.	印度作为世界软件工程师和高科技公司的大本营，而且是一个广袤而又人口稠密的农业型经济，七亿贫穷的人口需要各种各样的连接。 这样的国家，自然地成了数字引领型经济发展的先锋。


Government and business have increasingly teamed up in public-private partnerships to provide crucial services on the digital network.	政府和企业的公私联合协作程度不断提高，以求在数字网络上提供重要的服务。


In the Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat, for example, emergency ambulance services are now within reach of tens of millions of people, supported by cell phones, sophisticated computer systems, and increased public investments in rural health.	举例来说，在印度的Andhra Pradesh 和Gujarat邦，由于有了手机、精密的电脑系统以及对农村健康设施不断增长的公共投资这些支持系统，数千万的人民现在因而能获得急救救护车的服务。


Several large-scale telemedicine systems are now providing primary health and even cardiac care to rural populations.	大型远程医疗系统目前为农村人民提供基本的医疗服务甚至是心脏病治疗。


Moreover, India’s new rural employment guarantee scheme, just two years old, is not only employing millions of the poorest through public financing, but also is bringing tens of millions of them into the formal banking system, building on India’s digital networks.	更有甚者，二年前开始实行的印度的新农村就业保证计划，不仅通过公共贷款让数以千万计的穷人找到了工作，而且还依赖于印度的数字技术网络把他们中无数的人纳入了正规的银行系统。


On the fully commercial side, the mobile revolution is creating a logistics revolution in farm-to-retail marketing.	在完全商业化那方面，移动电话的革命带来了从农场直接到零售商之间的市场后勤方面的革命。


Farmers and food retailers can connect directly through mobile phones and distribution hubs, enabling farmers to sell their crops at higher “farm-gate” prices and without delay, while buyers can move those crops to markets with minimum spoilage and lower prices for final consumers.	农民和粮食零售商之间通过手机和发货中心就能直接联系，这使得农民能够以较高的“出场”价格销售他们的粮食，而且购买商家也能以最低的损耗把粮食运往市场并以较低的价格出售给终端客户。


The strengthening of the value chain not only raises farmers’ incomes, but also empowers crop diversification and farm upgrading more generally.	价值链的强化不但提高了农民的收入，也普遍地促进了谷物多元化和农场升级。


Similarly, world-leading software firms are bringing information technology jobs, including business process outsourcing, right into the villages through digital networks.	同样，世界顶级的软件公司通过数字化网络直接让村里的人们从事包括业务流程外包在内的信息技术方面的工作。


Education will be similarly transformed.	教育也同样地发生着巨变。


Throughout the world, schools at all levels will go global, joining together in worldwide digital education networks.	世界各地的各级别的学校也将全球化，并在全球数字教育网络内联成一体。


Children in the United States will learn about Africa, China, and India not only from books and videos, but also through direct links across classrooms in different parts of the world.	现在不仅仅是通过书本和录影资料，而通过遍布在世界各地教室里的直接链接口，美国的孩子也能了解非洲、中国和印度。


Students will share ideas through live chats, shared curricula, joint projects, and videos, photos, and text sent over the digital network.	学生们将能够通过实时聊天、共享的课程、合作项目和影视、照片以及通过数字网络发出的文字等方式，一起分享各自的观点。


Universities, too, will have global classes, with students joining lectures, discussion groups, and research teams from a dozen or more universities at a time.	大学也能在全球范围内开课，十几个甚至更多的大学学生们同时参与听课、讨论和小组研究活动。


This past year, my own university – Columbia University in New York City – teamed up with universities in Ecuador, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, France, Ethiopia, Malaysia, India, Canada, Singapore, and China in a “Global Classroom” that simultaneously connected hundreds of students on more than a dozen campuses in an exciting course on global sustainable development.	过去的一年中，在我本人任教的纽约的哥伦比亚大学 里，一个激动人心的“全球课堂”把学生们同步连接到一起。 几十所大学的数百名学生，有来自厄瓜多尔、尼日利亚、英国、法国、埃塞俄比亚、马来西亚、印度、加拿大、新加坡和中国，在课堂上，他们讨论了全球可持续性发展的课题。


In my book The End of Poverty , I wrote that extreme poverty can be ended by the year 2025.	在我的《贫困的结束》一书中，我写道，极度的贫困可能在2025年终止。


A rash predication, perhaps, given global violence, climate change, and threats to food, energy, and water supplies.	考虑到全球范围的暴力、气候变化，以及食品、能源和水电资源所受到的威胁等一些列问题，这仅是个初略的推测。


But digital information technologies, if deployed cooperatively and globally, will be our most important new tools, because they will enable us to join together globally in markets, social networks, and cooperative efforts to solve our common problems.	但是数字信息技术，如果在全球范围内以良好的合作精神被运用的话，将成为我们最重要的新型工具，因为这些技术将能使我们在市场、社会网络和合作性努力方面在全球范围内联手解决我们面对的共同难题。


The Dilemma of Curiosity and Its Use	好奇心的困境和功用


Albert Einstein once said, “I have no special gift, but I am passionately curious.”	爱因斯坦曾说：“我没有特殊的天分，但我有极强的好奇心。


Certainly, Einstein was being tremendously modest.	”当然，爱因斯坦实在是太谦虚了。


But, just as certainly, curiosity is a powerful driving force in scientific discovery.	但不可否认，好奇心是科学发现中的一种强大的驱动力。


Indeed, along with talent and interest, as well as mathematical or other quantitative abilities, curiosity is a necessary characteristic of any successful scientist.	的确，和才能、兴趣，以及数学或其它量化能力一样，好奇心是每一个成功科学家的必要特征。


Curiosity betrays emotional passion.	好奇心是对激情的叛离。


It is a state of being involuntarily gripped by something that is difficult to ward off and for which, since one cannot act otherwise, one is accountable only in a limited sense.	它是一种不自觉地被某些难以抵挡的事物攫住的状态。 正因为如此，我们对这种别无选择的情况只能做出理性有限的解释。


We all come into the world curious, equipped with the psychological drive to explore the world and to expand the terrain that we think we master.	我们都带着好奇心来到这个世界，具有探索世界的精神动力，并力图扩张我们自认为可以主宰的领域。


It is no coincidence that a well-known book on developmental psychology bears the title The Scientist in the Crib, a work that traces the parallels between small children’s behavior and the processes and research strategies that are usual in science.	一本知名的发展心理学著作题为《婴儿床上的科学家》决非偶然。 该书跟踪研究了幼童的行为和科学上常用的流程和研究战略之间的并联关系。


But the urge for knowledge that drives inborn curiosity to transcend given horizons does not remain uncurbed.	但驱动天生好奇心超越既定领域的求知冲动并不是天马行空的。


Parents can tell many a tale about how, with the beginning of school, their children’s playful approach suddenly changes, as they must now focus on objects dictated by the curriculum.	父母们都反映随着子女开始接受学校教育，他们顽皮的手段突然发生了变化。 那是因为他们必须关注课程规定的学习目标。


Likewise, however desirable its ability to produce the unexpected and unforeseeable, science today cannot claim that it is not accountable to society.	同样，不论科学创造超出人预期和不可预知的结果的能力多么令人向往，它也不能宣称自己不对社会负责。


Curiosity is insatiable and, in research, it is inextricably tied to the unforeseeability of results.	好奇心是永不满足的，在研究领域，它和结果的不可预知性密不可分。


Research is an endless process, with a destination that no one can predict precisely.	研究是一个无休止的进程，其目的地没有人可以准确预知。


The more that unexpected results, brought forth by research in the laboratory, are a precondition for further innovations, the more pressure there is to bring the production of knowledge under control, to direct research in specific directions, and to tame scientific curiosity.	出人意料的结果越多（这些在实验室研究中获得的成果是进一步创新的前提条件），控制知识生产、引导研究方向和驯服科学好奇心的压力也就越大。


But curiosity must not be limited too severely, lest science’s ability to produce new knowledge be lost.	但是好奇心不应该受到过于严苛的限制，否则科学就会丧失创造新知的能力。


This dilemma is at the center of many policy debates surrounding scientific research.	这一困境存在于和科学研究有关的许多政策辩论的核心。


To be sure, not everything that arouses scientific curiosity is controversial; in fact, most scientific research is not.	确切地说，并不是所有激发科学好奇心的事物都具有争议。 实际上，大多数的科学研究都并非如此。


Still, the dilemma is obvious in pioneering fields like biomedicine, nanotechnology, and neurosciences.	然而，在诸如生物医药、纳米技术和神经科学等前沿领域这一困境是明显的。


Research in these areas sometimes meets with vehement rejection, for example, on religious grounds with respect to stem-cell research, or owing to fear with respect to the possibility of altering human identity.	在这些领域的研究有时会遭遇激烈的反对。 例如在干细胞研究领域遇到的宗教阻力，或由于对改变人类身份的可能性的恐惧而引发的阻力。


Curiosity implies a certain immoderation, a certain necessary excess.	好奇心意味着一定程度上的不甘平庸，某种必要的过度。


That is precisely what makes it a passion: it is amoral and follows its own laws, which is why society insists on taming it in various ways.	这正是好奇心之所以成为一种激情的原因：它不受道德约束，遵从自己的规则。 这也就是为什么社会坚持要以不同的方式来驯服它。


Private investment in research directs curiosity onto paths where new scientific breakthroughs promise high economic potential.	科研中的私人投资引导好奇心促成能带来高度经济潜力的科学新突破。


Politicians expect research to function as a motor of economic growth.	政客们希望科研发挥其经济增长发动机的功能。


Ethics commissions want to establish limits on research, even if these require frequent re-negotiation.	道德伦理机构想为科研建立限制机制，即使这样做需要进行频繁的重新谈判。


The demand for more democratic input, finally, also seeks to influence research priorities.	对更多民主投入的需求也试图影响科研的优先事务。


These considerations must be borne in all efforts to support basic research.	这些考虑必须被纳入到我们支持基础研究的一切努力之中。


In Europe, the establishment of the European Research Council (ERC) is entering a decisive phase, with crucial implications concerning the role we are prepared to concede to scientific curiosity.	在欧洲，欧洲研究委员会(ERC)的创立正进入决定性阶段。 这对于我们准备让科学好奇心发挥怎样的作用具有至关重要的意义。


For the first time, support for basic research is being made possible on the EU level.	对基础研究的支持正第一次在欧盟层面上成为可能。


Individual teams are to enter a pan-European competition to determine the best of the best, opening a free space for scientific curiosity and enabling the unforeseeable outcomes that are characteristic of cutting-edge research.	各个研究团队会参加一场泛欧洲的竞争，已决选出强者中的强者。 此举将会为好奇心开放一片自由的空间，并使我们可能通过尖端的科学研究获得不可预知的成果。


The dilemma – and it is a decisive one – is that today we cherish the passionate curiosity of an Albert Einstein.	这个困境—这具有决定性的困境—就是当今我们珍惜爱因斯坦式的强烈好奇心。


But we still want to control the unforeseeable consequences to which curiosity leads.	但我们仍想掌控那些由好奇心引向的不可预知的结果。


The dilemma must be overcome by allowing curiosity to be protected and supported, while trying to capture those of its fruits that will benefit society.	我们必须通过保护和支持好奇心，并采撷其有益社会的成果来摆脱这一困境。


How we accomplish this must be continuously negotiated in the public sphere.	就我们如何实现这一点必须在公共领域进行连续的谈判。


Irreducible contradictions will remain, and therein lie the ambivalence that characterizes modern societies’ stance toward science.	巨大的矛盾会依然存在，而这其中反映出的正是现代社会对于科学的矛盾态度。


The Dilemma of Multiculturalism	多元文化主义的两难困境


Many people have suddenly become very hesitant about using the term “multicultural society.”	突然间，许多人在使用“多元文化社会”这个术语时候变得犹豫不决。


Or they hesitate to use it approvingly, as a desirable ideal that social reality should at least approximate.	抑或，他们不愿意持着赞成态度将这个术语作为一个形容社会实体所至少应该达到的理想模式的词来使用。


July’s terrorist attacks in London demonstrated both the strength and the weakness of the concept.	7月发生在伦敦的恐怖主义袭击将“多元文化社会”这个概念的优缺点同时暴露出来。


London is certainly a multicultural metropolis.	毫无疑问，伦敦是一个多元文化的大都市。


An indiscriminate attack such as a bomb in the Underground will necessarily hit people of many cultural backgrounds and beliefs.	地铁内的大规模袭击，诸如炸弹爆炸，必然伤及了许多不同文化背景和信仰的人们。


Sitting, or more likely standing, in the “tube” (as London’s Underground is affectionately known), one never ceases to be amazed at the ease with which Jewish mothers and Muslim men, West Indian youngsters and South Asian businessmen, and many others endure the same stressful conditions and try to lighten its impact by being civil to one another.	坐在，或更确切地说是站在“试管”（正如人们对伦敦地铁的爱称）中，人们不绝惊讶于犹太母亲与穆斯林男人、西印第安年轻人和南亚商人、以及许多其他同样忍受着紧张局势的人们之间的和平相处，他们彼此以礼相待以缓解紧张局势所带来的影响。


The terror attacks demonstrated not only how particular people helped each other, but also how the whole city, with all the ingredients of its human mixture, displayed a common spirit of resilience.	恐怖袭击不仅使人们看到特定人群间如何相互帮助，也揭示出包含各人种成份的整个城市如何表现出共同的乐观精神风貌。


This is the positive side of a multicultural society.	这是一个多元文化社会的积极面。


Careful observers have always noted that it is strictly confined to the public sphere, to life in those parts of the city that are shared by all.	细心的观察家一直注意到，这种积极面仅存在于公共领域，仅限于那些城市中所有人都共享的一部分生活。


It does not extend in quite the same way to people’s homes, let alone to their ways of life in the private sphere.	它并没有以同样的方式延伸到人们的家中，更不用说他们在私人领域的生活方式。


This is one reason why London has experienced the other, darker side of the multicultural society: the veneer of multiculturalism is thin.	这就是为何伦敦经历了多元文化社会的另一种黑暗面的原因之一：多元文化主义的外表很脆弱。


It does not take much to turn people of one group against those of others with whom they had apparently lived in peace.	不需费太大功夫就可以让一个群体的人们与曾与他们和平相处过的群体反目为仇。


We know this because it lies at the core of the murderous environment that gripped the Balkans in the 1990’s.	我们之所以了解这一点是因为这正是1990年代曾笼罩巴尔干地区的致命环境的核心问题。


For decades (and in some cases much longer), Serbs and Croats, – indeed, Orthodox, Catholic, and Muslim “Yugoslavs” – had lived together as neighbors.	数十年来（在有些地方可能更长），塞族（Serbs）和克族（Croats ）——其实是东正教、天主教和穆斯林“南斯拉夫人”——曾毗邻而居。


Few thought it possible that they would turn against each other in a bloodletting of such brutal enormity that it is very unlikely that Bosnia-Herzegovina can ever become a successful multicultural society.	几乎没有人认为他们会在这样一个血腥的暴行中彼此反目，也没有人想到波黑也因此不可能成为一个成功的多元文化社会。


Yet it happened, and in a different way it is happening now in Britain.	但是这样的事情还是发生了，并且此时正以另外一种不同的方式发生在英国。


It is important to recognize that we are not talking about the return of age-old hostilities.	有一点很重要，我们必须认识到我们讨论的不是宿怨的回归。


Ethnic and cultural conflicts today, often in the form of terrorism, are not the eruption of a supposedly extinct volcano.	如今，通常以恐怖主义形式出现的种族和文化冲突，并不是人们以为的死火山喷发。


They are, on the contrary, a specifically modern phenomenon.	相反，它们是一种当代才有的现象。


For the terrorists themselves, such conflicts are one consequence of the unsettling effects of modernization.	对恐怖主义分子本身而言，这种冲突是现代化带来的混乱后果之一。


Beneath the veneer of integration into a multicultural environment, many people – especially young men with an immigrant background – are lost in the world of contradictions around them.	在不断融入多元文化环境的外表下，许多人——尤其是带有移民背景的年轻人——在围绕他们的这片矛盾世界中迷失了方向。


Their seamless, all-embracing world of tradition is gone, but they are not yet confident citizens of the modern, individualistic world.	他们那原本天衣无缝、兼容并包的传统世界已经不复存在，但他们还没有成为当代个人主义世界的自信公民。


The question is not primarily one of employment, or even poverty, but of marginalization and alienation, of the lack of a sense of belonging.	就业、乃至贫困都不是这个问题的首要所在，边缘化与异化以及对归属感的缺失才是首要问题。


It is in such circumstances that the key feature of terrorism comes into play: the preaching of hate by often self-appointed leaders.	正是在这样一种环境下，恐怖主义的主要特点发挥了作用：鼓吹煽动仇恨，这招经常被自封的领导人所使用。


They are not necessarily religious leaders; in the Balkans and elsewhere, they are nationalists who preach the superiority of one nationality over others.	他们未必是宗教领袖； 他们是在巴尔干以及其他地区鼓吹一国比其他国家优越的民族主义分子。


But to call these hate-mongers “preachers” is fitting nonetheless, because they invariably appeal to higher values to sanctify criminal acts.	但是，把这些仇恨传播者称为“鼓吹者”恰如其分，因为他们一直宣扬着尊崇犯罪行为的更高价值。


The mobilization of criminal energies by such preachers of hate is itself a modern phenomenon.	通过煽动仇恨鼓动犯罪能量本身是一个当代现象。


It is a far cry even from such doubtful claims as the self-determination of peoples defined as ethnic communities.	这和那些那些种族团体的民族决心毫无关系，更不用说与那些不可信的鼓吹了。


Hate preachers use highly modern methods to enhance their personal power and to create havoc around them.	仇恨鼓吹者使用现代方式加强他们的个人力量并在他们周围制造破坏活动。


But countering them does not involve warfare, or even a rhetorically looser “war on terror.”	但是，与他们抗衡并不一定要牵涉到战争，或甚至夸夸其谈地使用“反恐战争”这个词。


Of course, part of the answer is to identify the relatively small number of people who are prepared to use their lives to destroy the lives of others without distinction or purpose.	当然，我们要做的一部分是要找出那些相对数目较少、却准备用他们的生命不加选择、没有具体目标地破坏他人生命的人们。


But the more important issue is to identify the preachers of hate and stop their murderous incitement.	但是更重要的问题是，找出仇恨鼓吹者并制止他们的致命性煽动。


This is why it is so important to capture and prosecute Radovan Karadzic, who spurred on the homicidal rage of so many Bosnian Serbs.	这就是为��么抓获并起诉曾掀起如此众多波斯尼亚塞族人杀戮狂潮的拉多凡·卡拉季奇（Radovan Karadzic，前波黑领导人）如此重要的原因所在。


And this is why militant Islamist preachers must be stopped.	这也就是为何必须制止好战的伊斯兰主义鼓吹者的原因。


Beyond this carefully targeted – and, in principle, limited – task, there remains the need to strengthen the sphere of common values and cooperation in societies that will, after all, remain multicultural.	除了这个目标仔细确定——并且目标大体限定的任务之外，还需要在全社会加强共同价值和相互合作的范围，毕竟这个社会还要继续保持多元文化。


This will be difficult, and it must not be approached naively.	这将是个困难重重的任务，无法一蹴而就。


Differences will not – and need not – go away; but ensuring that all citizens can rely on each other requires us to find a way to extend and bolster the civic trust that we see in the public sphere.	民族间的差异不会消失，也没有必要消失； 但是若要保证所有的公民能够彼此信赖，就要求我们在公共领域内找到一种能够加深并支持市民间信任的方式。


The Diplomacy of the Blind	盲人外交


PARIS – Why do revolutions so often take professional diplomats by surprise?	巴黎——革命为什么总是令职业外交官们出其不意？


Is there something in their DNA that makes them prefer the status quo so much that, more often than not, they are taken aback by rapid changes, neither foreseeing them nor knowing how to respond once they begin?	他们的DNA中是否存在某种物质，让他们如此留恋现状，多半会因为变起突然而出其不意，而且既不能预见变化也不知道在变化发生时该如何应对。


What is happening today in the Arab world is a revolution that may turn out to be for the Middle East the equivalent of what the French Revolution was for Europe in 1789: a profound and radical change that alters completely the situation that prevailed before.	今天在阿拉伯世界发生的革命可能演变为中东版欧洲1789年法国大革命： 一场彻底改变以前普遍情况的深远而彻底的变革。


How many Bastilles will ultimately fall in the region, and at what pace, no one can say.	没有人能说清楚中东地区会以何种速度垮掉多少座巴士底狱。


The only recent analogy is the collapse of the Soviet bloc, followed by the demise of the Soviet Union itself, in 1989-1991.	近期唯一的类似事件是苏联集团的崩溃，以及之后的1989－1991年苏联自身解体。


Who saw that sudden and rapid transformation coming?	谁能预见到那场突然而快速的变革？


As the German Democratic Republic was about to disappear, some top French diplomats in Germany were still assuring their government in Paris that the Soviet Union would never accept German reunification, so there was nothing to worry about: life would go on nearly as usual.	就在德意志民主共和国行将就木之际，某些驻德国的法国外交官仍在信誓旦旦地告诉巴黎的政府，苏联永远也不会接受德国的重新统一，因此没有什么需要担心的： 可以像以往一样继续生活。


The specter of a united Germany was not to become a reality soon.	统一德国的幽灵还不会很快成为现实。


We saw the same conservative instinct at work with the first reactions to the events in Tunisia, and then in Egypt.	在对突尼斯和其后埃及事件的第一反应中我们也感受到同样这种保守本能。


“President Ben Ali is in control of the situation,” some said.	有人说“本阿里总统可以掌控局势”。


Or “President Mubarak has our complete confidence.”	也有人说“我们对穆巴拉克总统完全有信心”。


The United States managed to get it right, albeit very slowly, whereas many European countries erred on the side of the status quo for a much longer time, if not systematically, as they refused to see that the region could be evolving in a direction contrary to what they deemed to be in their strategic interest.	尽管过程缓慢，但美国最终做出了正确的选择，而欧洲国家却系统性地在更长时间里错误地希望维持现状，因为他们拒绝承认中东地区可能正朝着在他们看来不利于自身战略利益的方向移动。


Historical and geographic proximity, together with energy dependency and fear of massive immigration, paralyzed European diplomats.	历史和地理上的息息相关，再加上能源依赖和对大规模移民潮的惧怕，令欧洲外交官束手无策。


But there is something more fundamental underlying diplomats’ natural diffidence.	但在外交官们与生俱来的胆怯背后却有某种更为本质的因素。


They are very often right in their readings of a given situation – the US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks, for example, include a slew of masterful and penetrating analyses.	他们在解读特定局势时经常体现出超人的预见性——比方说大量高超和深入的分析就包含在维基解密公开的美国外交电报中。


But it is as if, owing to an excess of prudence, they cannot bring themselves to pursue their own arguments to their logical conclusions.	但或许是由于过度谨慎，他们却无法依据自己的逻辑判断采取行动。


Revolutionary ruptures upset diplomats’ familiar habits, both in terms of their personal contacts and, more importantly, in terms of their thinking.	革命毁掉了心烦意乱的外交官们早已熟悉的习惯，毁掉了他们的个人关系和思维定式。


A fast-forward thrust into the unknown can be exhilarating, but it is also deeply frightening.	快速冲入未知的领域有时或许令人兴奋，但有时也会带来深深的恐惧。


In the name of “realism,” diplomats and foreign-policy strategists are naturally conservative.	在“现实主义”名义的掩护下，外交官和外交战略制定者们自然而然选择了保守。


Indeed, it is no accident that Henry Kissinger’s masterpiece, A World Restored, was devoted to the study of the recreation of the world order by the Vienna Congress after the rupture of the French Revolution, followed by the Napoleonic adventures.	事实上，亨利·基辛格的力作《恢复的世界》致力于研究法国大革命破裂和随之而来的拿破仑冒险，他认为其后的维也纳会议试图重建世界秩序绝非是一时的心血来潮。


Is it more difficult to predict, and adjust to, the coming of a fundamental change, than to defend the present order, under the motto of “the devil you know is always preferable to the devil you don’t know!”	预测并适应即将到来的根本性变化是否比捍卫现有秩序难度更大，人们奉若神明的一句格言是“熟悉的魔鬼总比不熟悉的魔鬼要强！ ”


But, beyond these mental habits lie more structural reasons for the conservatism of foreign policymakers and diplomats.	但外交决策者和外交官的保守态度除心理习惯外还有更多的结构性原因。


By emphasizing the relations between states and governments over contacts with the opposition or civil societies (when they exist in an identifiable form), traditional diplomacy has created for itself a handicap that is difficult to overcome.	传统外交强调与国家和政府的关系多于与反对派或民间组织（即便它们明确存在）的关系，因此为自身发展带来了难以逾越的障碍。


By requiring their diplomats to limit their contacts with “alternative” sources of information in a country, in order to avoid antagonizing despotic regimes, governments irremediably limit diplomats’ ability to see change coming, even when it is so close that nothing can be done.	由于要求外交官为避免惹恼专制政权而限制与所在国“非传统”信息来源的接触，政府不可避免地限制了外交官预见变革的能力，即使这种变革已经无法挽回。


When regimes lose legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens, it is not reasonable to derive one’s information mainly from that regime’s servants and sycophants.	当政权在民众眼中丧失合法性的时候，单纯从政府的仆役和谄媚者那里了解信息就成为不智之举。


In such cases, diplomats will too often merely report the regime’s reassuring yet biased analysis.	在这种情况下，外交官常常不过是专制政权偏颇但令人放心分析的传声筒。


Diplomats, instead, should be judged by their ability to enter into a dialogue with all social actors: government representatives and business leaders, of course, but also representatives of civil society (even if it exists only in embryonic form).	相反，判断外交官的优劣应该依据他们与所有社会角色进行对话的能力： 这其中当然包括政府代表和企业领袖，但也包括民间组织的代言人（即使民间组织只是某种雏形）。


With proper training and incentives, diplomats would be better equipped to anticipate change.	有了适当的培训和激励，外交官或许可以更好地预见变革。


Of course, not all Western foreign ministries are the same; some do understand the need to nurture relationships with people outside the government – if not in opposition to it.	当然，并非所有西方外交部门都同样被动，其中有些确实深谙与政府外、甚至反对派人士建立关系的重要性。


But one thing is clear: the more traditional foreign ministries tend to be, the more difficult it is for them and their diplomats to grasp change.	但有一点可以肯定： 外交部门越传统，他们和他们的外交官把握变化的难度就越大。


Needless to say, the ability to comprehend change has become indispensable at a time when the world is experiencing tectonic geopolitical shifts.	毋须赘言，在一个正在发生地缘政治变化的世界，把握变革的能力已经变得不可或缺。


The new Middle East that is emerging before us is probably both “post-Western,” given the rise of new powers, and “post – Islamist,” with the revolt led by young, technologically savvy people with no ties to political Islam whatsoever.	出现在我们面前的中东或许既因新势力的崛起而不受西方掌控，又因与伊斯兰政治无关的懂技术的��轻人成为起义领导而摆脱了伊斯兰教的影响。


By being late in perceiving change that they do not want to see coming, Western diplomats run the risk of losing on both levels: the regime and the people.	但由于没有及时意识到这场他们不愿接受的变革，西方外交官极有可能在政府和民众面前两头不讨好。


Diplomats require openness and imagination in order to carry out their responsibilities.	外交官完成使命需要想象力和开放的态度。


They should not abdicate these qualities when they are needed most.	他们不应该在最关键的时刻放弃这些原则。


The Diplomacy Option	外交选择


DENVER – A senior Russian diplomat, in contrasting North Korea and Iran, once said to me: “The North Koreans are like neighborhood children with matches.	丹佛—一位反对朝鲜和伊朗的俄罗斯高级外交官曾经对我说：“朝鲜半岛就像是一对旗鼓相当的邻家对头小孩。


The Iranians are who we really need to worry about.”	伊朗才是真正需要担心的。 ”


Whether the talks between the “P5 + 1” (the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members and Germany) and Iran, which concluded in Istanbul on April 14 and are due to resume in Baghdad on May 23, have any chance of succeeding remains highly uncertain.	 “P5+1”（联合国安理会五大常任理事国和德国）和伊朗于4月14日在伊斯坦布尔举行、并将于5月23日在巴格达再次进行的谈判能否取得任何成果还远未可知。


The smart money is most likely being wagered on failure.	明智的赌徒都会把注投给失败。


But those of little faith need to understand a basic, but sometimes-elusive point about such negotiations: they are conducted for two purposes.	但不抱希望者需要明白一个关于此类谈判的基本道理（尽管这一道理有时会难以理解）：它们本来就带着两个目的。


The first purpose is, of course, to persuade the country in question to come around to others’ views.	第一个目的当然是说服问题国家按另一方的要求行事。


But negotiation must also demonstrate that everything that could be done has in fact been done before further steps – especially the highly risky and fraught decision to take military action – are considered.	但谈判也必须证明所有能做的事情在考虑采取下一步行动前都做过了——特别是存在高度风险、令人忧心忡忡的动武决策。


Military measures require broad international acceptance, and that condition can be met only in a context of good-faith efforts at diplomacy.	军事手段要求广泛的国际认可，而这一条件只有在诚信外交的环境下才能达到。


Effective diplomacy is not just about substance; it is also about timing and sequencing.	有效外交不仅包括实质问题，也包括时机和顺序。


Those who support a military solution to the problem of Iran’s nuclear aspirations, without first supporting diplomacy and economic measures of the kind currently being implemented against Iranian exports, miss that point.	那些支持以武力解决伊朗核野心问题而不首先支持现在正在实施中的针对伊朗出口品的外交和经济手段的人都忽略了这一点。


Few serious political leaders today argue the case for war.	如今，很少会有高级政治领导人赞成发动战争。


Those who do have succeeded only in driving up the price of oil, as markets, fearing the likely effect of military action on the region, respond to Iran’s bellicose reactions.	大谈动武的高级领导人也只能推高国际油价，因为市场由于担心军事行动对该地区的影响而对伊朗的好战行为反应激烈。


There has been another avenue to cutting short diplomacy with Iran: Israel, which would lie within range of a nuclear-armed Iranian missile, and therefore is most threatened by that prospect.	认为不需在伊朗问题上继续进行外交努力的还有另一个源头：处于伊朗核弹头射程内的以色列，它将受有核伊朗威胁最大的国家。


Being willing to fight to the last Israeli is a familiar pattern for those disinclined to take risks themselves.	以色列誓将流尽最后一滴血正是那些不愿自冒风险者所熟悉的模式。


But to encourage Israel to do what others with far greater means are not prepared to undertake is to expect a great deal of a small country in the Middle East with problems far and wide, most notably among its neighbors.	但鼓动以色列去做办法更多者不准备承担之事是在指望一个有着诸多大问题（最显著的是其与邻国之间的矛盾）的中东小国去办大事。


Israel, after all, has watched the political developments in Egypt not with hope, but rather with growing alarm.	说到底，以色列一直带着日渐加深的警惕而不是希望观察着埃及的政治发展态势。


The Israelis also see with greater clarity than many in the world the nature of the likely successor regime in Syria (hint: it will probably not be comprised exclusively of Facebook and Twitter users).	以色列人对叙利亚可能的新政权的性质的认识也比其他人更清楚（注意，可能并不局限于Facebook和Twitter用户）。


While it is true that many Arab states worry night and day about a nuclear Iran, they are singularly unlikely to support military intervention by Israel.	诚然，许多阿拉伯国家日夜忧虑伊朗拥有核武器，但他们绝不会支持以色列进行军事干预。


After all, this is the Middle East, where, as the old joke goes, the scorpion stings the camel carrying it across the Suez Canal, knowing that they will both drown.	毕竟这是在中东，它们都是一条绳上的蚂蚱。


War is a serious means toward serious ends, as Carl von Clausewitz observed almost 200 years ago.	战争是一种严厉的手段，会导致严重的后果，这是克劳塞维茨在200年前就观察到的。


Countries that have suffered it firsthand know better than many its painful effects on subsequent generations.	亲身经历过战争的国家会比其他国家更能理解战争给子孙后代带来的痛苦。


It is, after all, the human endeavor most associated with unintended consequences.	毕竟，战争充满着意外后果的人类活动。


To advocate military action out of sequence with other efforts, even if those efforts’ odds of succeeding are very long, is to ask a lot not only of the countries that are supposed to support it, but, more importantly, of the men and women who must wage it.	号召将武力排除于其他努力方式序列之外（即使这些努力的成功机会很小），不仅要求可能支持战争的国家这样做，更重要的是，也要求必须承担战争后果的人民这样做。


The proper sequencing of steps in dealing with world trouble spots is essential to gaining international support for further action.	处理世界棘手问题的合理步骤顺序是获得进一步行动的国际支持的关键。


The air campaign that ultimately succeeded in breaking Slobodan Milošević’s grip on Kosovo (and later his grip on Serbia proper) was made possible by prolonged diplomacy on the part of the United States, the European Union, and Russia.	阻止米洛舍维奇紧抓科索沃（以及后来他紧抓塞尔维亚）不放的空袭之所以可行，是因为美国、欧盟和俄罗斯对此做出了漫长的外交努力。


No one at the time tried to argue that peace was not given a chance, which is why advocating a quick end to diplomacy when it is judged unlikely to achieve anything is often a mistake.	当时，所有人都认为已经给了和平足够的机会。 （没有给和平足够的机会，这正是为什么号召在外交努力已被认为无法取得任何成果时时马上结束通常是错误的。


Many countries will be unlikely to support a military solution until they have seen genuine efforts at other means of persuasion (and coercion) fail.	）许多国家不会支持军事行动，除非它们看到其他所有劝说（和强制）手段的诚恳努力都已经失败。


Even if no military option is contemplated for the future, negotiations can pay other dividends.	即使不动武并不在进一步行动的选择范围内，外交仍能产生好处。


On the eve of the start of the six-party talks aimed at disarming North Korea, many opinion surveys in South Korea showed a substantial percentage of the public there blaming the US for the North Korean nuclear threat.	在旨在让朝鲜去核的六方会谈开始前夕，许多韩国民意调查显示，民众中有相当大的比重指责美国是造成朝鲜和威胁的源头。


While the six-party process has fallen well short of ending the threat, it has virtually eliminated efforts to blame the US as the culprit.	尽管六方会谈距离结束核威胁还相去甚远，但将美国视为罪魁的情形已经基本上看不到了。


Iran’s nuclear aspirations are a problem that, if not resolved, could lead to dangerous escalation, as countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the US, and Israel review their options.	伊朗的核野心是这样一个问题：如果不能解决，就可能导致危险的事态升级，因为沙特、土耳其、美国和以色列等国家将考虑单独采取行动。


But these options will become much clearer and more sustainable if the diplomatic track is carefully explored first.	但先进行精心安排的外交努力能够让单独行动变得更清晰、更可持续。


The Dirt on Nuclear Power	核能身上的污点


SINGAPORE – Japan’s nuclear crisis is a nightmare, but it is not an anomaly.	发自新加坡——日本的核危机是一场噩梦，但它并非孤例。


In fact, it is only the latest in a long line of nuclear accidents involving meltdowns, explosions, fires, and loss of coolant – accidents that have occurred during both normal operation and emergency conditions, such as droughts and earthquakes.	事实上这只是一连串核反应堆熔毁、爆炸，火灾和冷却液泄露事故的其中之一——而且这些事故在正常运作和紧急状况下（比如干旱和地震）都可能发生。


Nuclear safety demands clarity about terms.	为此我们首先要明确与核安全有关的一些概念。


The Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States generally separates unplanned nuclear “events” into two classes, “incidents” and “accidents.”	美国核管理委员会（Nuclear Regulatory Commission）将意外发生的核“事件”分为两个级别：“事件”以及“事故”。


Incidents are unforeseen events and technical failures that occur during normal plant operation and result in no off-site releases of radiation or severe damage to equipment.	其中事件指的是在核电站日常运行中出现的意外情况或者技术问题，但不会造成辐射外泄或者设备严重损坏；


Accidents refer to either off-site releases of radiation or severe damage to plant equipment.	而事故则是核辐射泄漏或是核电站设备严重损坏。


The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale uses a seven-level ranking scheme to rate the significance of nuclear and radiological events: levels 1-3 are “incidents,” and 4-7 are “accidents,” with a “Level 7 Major Accident” consisting of “a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.”	而国际核与辐射事件等级标准（International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale）则将核与辐射事件按其严重性分为7级：1~3级为“事件”，4~7级为“事故”，其中第7级“重大事故”定义为“辐射物质严重泄漏并造成广泛的人体健康和环境影响，需要实施有计划以及持续的应对措施”。


Under these classifications, the number of nuclear accidents, even including the meltdowns at Fukushima Daiichi and Fukushima Daini, is low.	按照这样的分级标准，即便将福岛第一和第二两座核电站的熔毁事故包括在内，真正的核“事故”其实不多。


But if one redefines an accident to include incidents that either resulted in the loss of human life or more than $50,000 in property damage, a very different picture emerges.	但倘若将“事故”的定义修改为造成人员死亡或者财产损失超过5万美元以上的话，整个情况就大不相同了。


At least 99 nuclear accidents meeting this definition, totaling more than $20.5 billion in damages, occurred worldwide from 1952 to 2009 – or more than one incident and $330 million in damage every year, on average, for the past three decades.	在1952年至2009年间全球至少有99场核事故符合上述定义，合共造成205亿美元损失——或者说在过去30年间平均每年发生超过一起核事件并损失3. 3亿美元。


And, of course, this average does not include the Fukushima catastrophe.	当然这个统计尚未将目前的福岛核灾难计算在内。


Indeed, when compared to other energy sources, nuclear power ranks higher than oil, coal, and natural gas systems in terms of fatalities, second only to hydroelectric dams.	事实上跟其它发电能源相比，核能的恶性死亡事故发生率高于燃油，燃煤和天然气，仅次于水电大坝。


There have been 57 accidents since the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.	自1986年切尔诺贝利事件之后总共发生了57起核事故。


While only a few involved fatalities, those that did collectively killed more people than have died in commercial US airline accidents since 1982.	虽然只有其中少数几起造成人员死亡，但造成的总死亡人数却比自1982年起死于美国商业航空事故的人数还要多。


Another index of nuclear-power accidents – this one including costs beyond death and property damage, such as injured or irradiated workers and malfunctions that did not result in shutdowns or leaks – documented 956 incidents from 1942 to 2007.	另一个评定核能事故的指数——该指数将死亡以及财产损失以外的成本（比如受伤或者遭受辐射的工人和未导致反应堆关停或者泄漏的事件）也包括在内——在1942至2007年间共记录了956起事件。


And yet another documented more than 30,000 mishaps at US nuclear-power plants alone, many with the potential to have caused serious meltdowns, between the 1979 accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania and 2009.	另外一个指数则记录了从1979年美国宾夕法尼亚洲三里岛核事故到2007年期间超过3万起美国核电站轻微事故，其中许多都可能导致严重的熔毁。


Mistakes are not limited to reactor sites.	这些失误可不仅仅发生于反应堆所在地。


Accidents at the Savannah River reprocessing plant released ten times as much radioiodine as the accident at Three Mile Island, and a fire at the Gulf United facility in New York in 1972 scattered an undisclosed amount of plutonium, forcing the plant to shut down permanently.	比如位于美国南卡罗莱纳州的瑟维那河核废料再处理厂（Savannah River reprocessing plant）就曾释放出比三里岛事故高十倍的辐射强度，而1972年在纽约海湾联合（Gulf United）钚燃料转化工厂发生的一场火灾则引发了数量不明的钚元素泄漏，直接导致该厂永久关闭。


At the Mayak Industrial Reprocessing Complex in Russia’s southern Urals, a storage tank holding nitrate acetate salts exploded in 1957, releasing a massive amount of radioactive material over 20,000 square kilometers, forcing the evacuation of 272,000 people.	1957年在俄罗斯南乌拉尔地区的马雅克工业再处理综合体（Mayak Industrial Reprocessing Complex），一个存有硝基乙酸盐的储藏罐发生破裂并泄漏出大量放射性物质，影响范围超过2万平方公里，27.


In September 1994, an explosion at Indonesia’s Serpong research reactor was triggered by the ignition of methane gas that had seeped from a storage room and exploded when a worker lit a cigarette.	2万人被迫搬迁。 在1994年9月，印尼塞尔蓬(Serpong)研究核反应堆附近一间储藏室发生甲烷气体泄漏，随后一名工人点燃香烟引发爆炸并波及到反应堆。


Accidents have also occurred when nuclear reactors are shut down for refueling or to move spent nuclear fuel into storage.	在核反应堆停机补充核燃料或者移除核废料进行储藏的过程中也不乏事故。


In 1999, operators loading spent fuel into dry-storage at the Trojan Reactor in Oregon found that the protective zinc-carbon coating had started to produce hydrogen, which caused a small explosion.	在1999年的美国俄勒冈州特洛伊反应堆，正在将核废料进行干储藏的操作人员发现由锌碳材料制成的保护罩开始产生氢气，并随后引发了一场小型爆炸。


Unfortunately, on-site accidents at nuclear reactors and fuel facilities are not the only cause of concern.	不幸的是，引起关注的不仅仅是那些在核反应堆以及核燃料设施现场发生的事故。


The August 2003 blackout in the northeastern US revealed that more than a dozen nuclear reactors in the US and Canada were not properly maintaining backup diesel generators.	2003年8月的美国东北部大停电期间，美国和加拿大两地有超过12个核反应堆的柴油后备发电机组暴露出未有适当维护的问题。


In Ontario during the blackout, reactors designed to unlink from the grid automatically and remain in standby mode instead went into full shutdown, with only two of twelve reactors behaving as expected.	其中位于加拿大安大略省的反应堆只能自动切断与电网的连接并保持待机模式（而非完全关闭），因为所有12个反应堆里只有2个能正常运作。


As environmental lawyers Richard Webster and Julie LeMense argued in 2008, “the nuclear industry…is like the financial industry was prior to the crisis” that erupted that year. “[T]here are many risks that are not being properly managed or regulated.”	正如环境问题律师理查德·韦伯斯特和朱丽·勒门斯在2008年指出的那样：“核工业……就像（今年）金融危机（爆发）前的金融业……许多风险都未得到恰当的处置或者监管。


This state of affairs is worrying, to say the least, given the severity of harm that a single serious accident can cause.	考虑到一场事故所可能引发的严重后果，目前的状况至少是令人担心的。


The meltdown of a 500-megawatt reactor located 30 miles from a city would cause the immediate death of an estimated 45,000 people, injure roughly another 70,000, and cause $17 billion in property damage.	一座位于市区30里外的500兆瓦反应堆一旦发生熔毁将导致4. 5万人迅速死亡，7万人受伤，经济损失170亿元。


A successful attack or accident at the Indian Point power plant near New York City, apparently part of Al Qaeda’s original plan for September 11, 2001, would have resulted in 43,700 immediate fatalities and 518,000 cancer deaths, with cleanup costs reaching $2 trillion.	如果位于纽约市的印第安角核电站遭到袭击或者发生事故（这似乎是基地组织9·11袭击的原计划之一），那么将有4. 37万人当场死亡，51.


To put a serious accident in context, according to data from my forthcoming book Contesting the Future of Nuclear Power, if 10 million people were exposed to radiation from a complete nuclear meltdown (the containment structures fail completely, exposing the inner reactor core to air), about 100,000 would die from acute radiation sickness within six weeks. About 50,000 would experience acute breathlessness, and 240,000 would develop acute hypothyroidism.	按照笔者即将出版的新书《对核能前途的争论》中的数据，如果1000万人在一场彻底的核反应堆熔毁（外围保护结构完全失效，内部反应堆直接暴露在空气中）事故中遭到核辐射，其中10万人将在6个星期内死于急性辐射病，大约5万人会出现急性呼吸困难，24万人会发生急性甲状腺机能减退症状，35万男性出现暂时性不育，10万妇女停经，并产生10万名有大脑认知功能缺陷的新生儿，还可能产生数千例自然流产和超过30万例癌症。


Advocates of nuclear energy have made considerable political headway around the world in recent years, touting it as a safe, clean, and reliable alternative to fossil fuels. But the historical record clearly shows otherwise.	近年来核能的鼓吹者在全球范围内夺取了相当大的政治支持，并将核能吹嘘成一个安全，洁净和可靠的化石燃料替代能源，但历史的经验却向我们展现了核能的另一面。


Perhaps the unfolding tragedy in Japan will finally be enough to stop the nuclear renaissance from materializing.	或许日本当前这场灾难将足以阻止核能的复兴。


The Disappearing Sky	消失的天空


Some months ago, an American astronaut accidentally let a tool escape into orbit, eliciting concern about its hazardous potential as a hurtling object that could destroy an expensive satellite or even threaten lives aloft.	几个月前，一名美国宇航员碰巧把一把工具掉进了轨道，从而引发了人们对于这样一个猛冲猛撞的物体可能破坏一颗昂贵的卫星、甚至威胁上面的生命的危险性的担忧。


Shortly afterwards, China blew up one of its satellites, immediately doubling the type of fine orbiting debris that is dangerous because it is hard to track.	过了不久，中国炸毁了它的一颗卫星，从而立即倍增了因为难以搜寻而显得十分危险的围绕轨道旋转的废弃物的数量。


Once again the world became aware of the strange situation emerging in our skies.	世界再次认识到了存在于我们天空的奇怪状况。


The sky is a unique domain, and one that is inadequately regulated.	天空是一个特殊并且没有得到恰当管制的领地。


With the advent of global pollutions and technologies, remedying this is becoming an increasingly urgent problem.	随着全球污染和技术的出现，改变这一状况变成了一个越来越紧迫的问题。


In most cases, the laws for skies mirror those governing the world’s oceans.	在大多数情况下，天空的规则与那些管制世界上海洋的规则相似。


Oceans belong to everyone except those near landmasses, which are managed in a similar manner to the country's land-bound borders.	除开那些近陆地的海洋——那是受到与该国陆地边界同样方法管制的，其他的海洋是属于人类共有的。


As a result, the sky is usually conceptualized in terms of traffic.	其结果是，天空通常在人们心目中通常只是一种交通的概念。


Airliners and fighter planes operate in “controlled” air close to the ground, while nationality is supposed to matter less the higher you go.	航线和战斗机是在与地面相近的“管制”空域运作的，至于国境，则被认为你飞得越高，那么其概念就越薄弱。


Fragile treaties that cover this are enforced mostly by the fact that few nations can afford to place assets that high.	在此方面执行的脆弱的条约大多是因为很少有国家能在如果高的领域主张其权利。


But lately, more complex problems are beginning to arise from humanity’s sharing the atmosphere.	但是最近，因为人类对环境的共享而引发了更多复杂的问题。


Carbon and fluorocarbons affect everyone’s children.	碳和碳氟化合物队每一个人的孩子都构成了影响。


When Chernobyl exploded, it was not Ukraine alone that inherited generations of radioactive effects.	但切尔诺贝利核电站爆炸时，并不是只有乌克兰才遭受几代人的辐射影响。


Soon nations will colonize the moon, giving rise to the same unsatisfactory and tentative situation we have in Antarctica, where nations essentially take without legally owning.	不久以后，许多国家都会去占领月球，从而引发我们在南极洲所碰到的同样令人不快的暂时性的状况：即各个国家在未合法拥有的情况下悍然撷取其中的资源。


A more enlightened approach to shared resources is needed, one less dependent on neo-colonial control.	我们需要一种更为开明的分享资源的方法，一种更少新殖民主义色彩的方法。


Some suggest that sky governance follow the precedent set by the electromagnetic spectrum.	有些人建议对天空的管制应遵循对电磁频谱管制的惯例。


The “airwaves” are used for a variety of communications, including government use and public access like radio.	“电波”被用于多种通讯中，包括政府使用的电波和公众使用的诸如无线电之类的电波。


The range of usable territory – the spectrum – is administered by governments as though it were real estate, and is broken up according to wavelength, with an amount apportioned for cell phones, other bits for military pilots, and so on.	可使用的领域的范围，即频谱，由政府像真正的地产一样进行管制，并且根据波长进行分割，一些被分配给移动电话，一些被分配给军事飞行，如此等等。


This situation would be disastrous if it could not be closely managed, because people would broadcast on top of one another.	这种状况如果没有得到严密管制的话将是灾难性的，因为人们会用其他人之外的频率进行广播。


Soon, we will see the spectrum become even more active, with the merger of cell phone infrastructure and the relatively unregulated Internet.	我们很快将看到随着移动电话基础设施和相关的未受管制的互联网的出现频谱变得更加活跃了。


This will likely be followed by more sophisticated means of communications based on access to the air.	这很可能会引发通过太空进行传播的更加复杂的通讯手段。


To some extent, everyone will benefit from this, because governments will be less able to censor information.	从某种程度上讲，每个人都将从中受益，因为政府无法再对信息进行如此严密的管制了。


But would it be a better model of atmospheric administration?	然而这是太空管理的一种更好的模型吗？


Perhaps not.	也许不是。


The problem is that at least some electromagnetic waves are dangerous.	问题在于至少有某些电磁波是有害的。


Consider this: at any given moment, the average citizen in the developed world has billions of messages passing through his or her brain.	让我们想一下：在任何一个时刻，在发达国家的每个公民中平均有几十亿的信息传递过他们的大脑。


It can be shown that cells are able to detect these messages, but the extent to which they affect the body is unknown.	我们可以观察到他们的细胞能够侦察到这些信息，至于这些信息会在何种程度上影响他们的机体我们并不了解。


However, it is known that bees are dying in the northern hemisphere.	然而，我们了解到北半球的蜜蜂正在死去。


This is a major concern because so much food depends on bees for pollination.	因为有如此多的食品依靠蜜蜂来传授花粉，因而这一问题引发的众多的关注。


The primary causes of this recent epidemic are germs and mites, but these have always been with us.	最近这一次流行病的爆发主要是由细菌和螨虫引发的，然而它们很早就与我们在一起了。


So why are they affecting bees now?	那么是什么原因使它们现在影响我们的呢？


A German study suggests that the proliferation of cell phone towers is weakening bees’ immune systems (the study correlates towers and signal strength to bee deaths).	德国进行的一项研究表明手机天线塔的大量使用削弱了蜜蜂的免疫系统（该研究关注的是天线塔与信号强度与蜜蜂死亡率的关联性）。


The jury is still out, but it may be that there is no safe level of exposure to many common radiations; the more we are exposed, the more damage we do.	虽然这项研究还没有定论，但是对于许多普通水平的辐射来说也许并没有一个安全的暴露标准。 我们越多地暴露辐射下，就会受到越大的危险。


We would see the result of this in indirect effects, such as growing rates of asthma and hyperactivity in children.	我们可以在一些间接的效应中看到这点，比如儿童越来越频发的哮喘和多动症。


So perhaps the problem with existing regulatory models lies in the assumption that the entire atmosphere is available for unconstrained use.	那么也许现有管制模式的问题在于我们天真地以为整个太空可以被我们不受制约地使用。


We have an intuitive understanding of the importance of limits when the loss of our sky is articulated in poetic terms.	我们对重要性的局限的直觉认识是从对我们天空的丢失的诗一般的描述中得来的。


As light pollution covers more of the planet, we are losing one of our oldest connections to nature: the ancient ability to gaze at the stars.	当这个星球的绝大部分地方都被轻度污染所覆盖时，我们正在失去我们与自然与最直接的接触：即我们观察星星的最古老的能力。


If dying bees do not inspire formal guidelines about how the sky should be shared, let us hope that empty space will.	如果正在死去的蜜蜂不能换来我们对天空应该如何被分享的正确指引，那么就让我们期望浩瀚的天空来做到这点吧。


The sky must belong to the people.	天空应该是属于大家的。


Abuse of it harms everyone, and profits from its use should benefit all as well, implying the need to establish worldwide democratic rights over what is an unarguably universal resource.	滥用天空会伤害每一个人，而善用它会使每一个人受益，所以我们迫切需要建立对无可争议的宇宙资源的世所共有的民主权利。


The Discreet Terror of Fidel Castro	菲德尔·卡斯特罗谨慎的恐怖活动


This spring marks the third anniversary of the wave of repression in which Fidel Castro’s regime arrested and handed down long sentences to 75 leading Cuban dissidents.	今年春天是镇压浪潮的三周年纪念。 在此镇压浪潮中，卡斯特罗政权逮捕了古巴75名主要的持不同政见者并宣判了他们的长期徒刑。


Soon afterwards, many friends and I formed the International Committee for Democracy in Cuba.	此后不久，我和许多朋友成立了“古巴民主国际委员会”。


The bravery of those who found their social conscience, overcame fear, and stood up to communist dictatorship remains fresh in my memory.	那些人士找到了自己的社会良心，克服了恐惧并挺身而出反抗共产主义专政。 他们的勇敢精神在我的记忆中仍然栩栩如生。


It reminds me of the jingle of keys that rang out on Prague’s Wenceslas Square -- and later around the rest of what was then Czechoslovakia -- in the autumn of 1989.	它让我想起了1989年秋天布拉格温塞拉斯广场上回荡的键音――后来这种声音响彻当时捷克斯洛伐克的其它地方。


This is why I rang keys during the conference calling for democracy in Cuba that our committee held in Prague three years ago.	这就是三年前我们的委员会在布拉格召开会议呼吁古巴实行民主政治期间我大声呼吁的原因。


I wanted to draw the international community’s attention to the human-rights situation in Cuba, to support that country’s opposition, and to encourage all pro-democratic forces.	我想吸引国际社会关注古巴的人权状况，支持该国的反对派，鼓励所有亲民主的力量。


The European Union then introduced diplomatic sanctions, albeit mostly symbolic, against Castro’s regime.	欧盟随后对卡斯特罗政权实施了外交制裁，虽然这种制裁更多的是象征意味。


Soon after, however, a contrary position came to the fore.	然而，此后不久，一种相反的立场占了上风。


The EU opened a dialogue with the Cuban regime, sanctions were conditionally suspended, and it was even made clear to dissidents that they were not welcome at the embassies of several democratic countries.	欧盟与古巴政权开始进行对话，制裁也有条件地中止了，并且向持不同政见者清楚地表明好几个民主国家的大使馆并不欢迎他们。


Cowardly compromise and political alibis – as so often in history – defeated a principled position.	怯懦的妥协和政治托辞――历史上屡见不鲜――战胜了坚持原则的立场。


In return, the Cuban regime made a sham gesture by releasing a small number of the prisoners of conscience – mostly those who were tortured and seriously ill – who the regime most feared would die in its notorious prisons.	作为回报，古巴政权做出了一种虚伪的姿态，释放了那些良心的囚犯中的一少部分，他们大多数遭受严刑拷打，身患重病，政府最害怕他们死在自己那臭名昭著的监狱之中。


Those of us who live in Europe’s new post-communist democracies experienced similar political deals when we lived behind the former Iron Curtain.	我们这些生活在欧洲新型的后共产主义民主社会之中的人在我们生活在以前的铁幕后面时都经历过类似的政治交易。


We are also extremely familiar with the argument that European policies have not led to any mass arrests in Cuba.	我们也非常熟悉这种论调，即欧洲的政策没有导致古巴出现大规模的逮捕情况。


But democracy has shown weakness and the Cuban regime has in turn adapted its tactics.	但是民主政治已经显现出了虚弱性，古巴政权则相应地改变了其战术策略。


Respected organizations like Reporters without Borders and Amnesty International have collected ample evidence of violence and intimidation against freethinking Cubans, who can expect a different kind of ring than that from jangling keys.	如“记者无国界”和“大赦国际”这样令人尊敬的组织已经收集了自由思想的古巴人遭受暴力和胁迫的大量证据。 这些古巴人可以期望听到一种不同与嘈杂键音的铃声。


Their cases often do not end in courts but in hospitals.	他们的案件常常不是在法庭而是在医院结束。


Groups of “fighters for the revolution” – in reality, the Cuban secret police – brutally attack their political opponents and accuse them of absurd crimes in an effort to intimidate them or to force them to emigrate.	一群群的“革命斗士”――实际上是古巴的秘密警察――凶狠地迫害他们的政治对手，为了胁迫他们或迫使他们移居国外而给他们安上荒唐可笑的罪名。


On the island, such planned harassments are called “actos de repudio” – “acts of rejection.”	在那个岛上，这种有计划的折磨美其名曰“actos de repudio”――“排异行动”。


Political violence that creates the impression of mere street crime is never easy to prove, unlike jail terms of several years, and therefore it does not receive due attention from the world.	政治暴行仅仅让人想到街头犯罪，与处以几年监禁不一样，从来就难以得到证明，因此也没有得到世界各国应有的关注。


However, thousands of former political prisoners in central and eastern Europe can attest to the fact that a kick from a secret policeman on the street hurts just as much as a kick from a warden behind prison gates.	然而，在中欧和东欧数以千记的政治犯可以证明下列事实：秘密警察在街头上的暴行造成的伤害与监狱里看守人的虐待造成的伤害一样严重。


The powerlessness of the victim of state-organized street fights and threats against his family is experienced in the same way as the powerlessness of somebody harassed during a state security investigation.	受害人在其家人面临国家组织的街头打斗和威胁时所感受到的无能为力与一些人在遭遇国家安全调查时感受到的无助感一模一样。


Many European politicians who have sought to see the situation on the ground have been barred in recent years.	近年来，许多希望能够实地考察这种状况的欧洲政治家都遭到了拒绝。


Some Europeans apparently regard Cuba as a faraway country whose fate they need take no interest in, because they have problems of their own.	很显然，许多欧洲人认为古巴是一个遥远的国家，它的命运不需要他们关心，因为他们有自己的问题。


But what Cubans are enduring today is part of our own European history.	但是古巴人民今天遭受的一切是我们欧洲人历史的一部分。


Who better than Europeans, who brought communism to life, exported it to the world, and then paid dearly for it over many decades, know better about the torments inflicted upon the Cuban people?	欧洲人赋予了共产主义生命力，将它传播到世界各国，在几十年的时间内为之付出了巨大的代价，谁还能够比欧洲人更懂得古巴人民遭受的痛苦和折磨呢？


Humanity will pay the price for communism until such a time as we learn to stand up to it with all political responsibility and decisiveness.	人类将为共产主义付出代价，直到我们学会怀着政治责任感和决断心挺身而出与之对抗。


We have many opportunities to do so in Europe and Cuba.	我们有很多机会在欧洲和古巴这样做。


And it is no surprise that the new member countries of the EU have brought to Europe fresh historical experience, and with it far less understanding for and tolerance of concession and compromise.	无需惊奇，欧盟新的成员国已经给欧洲带来了新鲜的历史经验，通过这种经验，人们将远远无法理解��容忍妥协和让步。


Representatives of the EU’s member states will meet in Brussels in mid-June to review a common policy towards Cuba.	欧盟成员国的代表将于6月中旬在布鲁塞尔举行会议评估针对古巴的共同政策。


European diplomats should weigh up the consequences of accommodating Castro’s regime.	欧洲的外交官们应该掂量一下容忍卡斯特罗政权将会导致的严重后果。


They should show that they will neither ignore his practices nor neglect the suffering of Cuban prisoners of conscience.	他们应该表明他们将不会对他的各种行为视而不见，也不会忽略古巴良心的囚犯遭受的苦难。


We must never forget the seemingly anonymous victims of Castro’s “acts of rejection.”	我们决对不能忘记卡斯特罗的“排异行动”中那些看似无名的受害人。


The Dismal Economist’s Joyless Triumph	悲观经济学家不幸言中


NEW YORK – I have long been forecasting that it was only a matter of time before America’s housing bubble – which began in the early days of this decade, supported by a flood of liquidity and lax regulation – would pop.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 纽约--我长期以来一直预言，美国的房地产泡沫崩溃只是一个时间早晚问题。 这个泡沫开始于这个十年初期，大量的流动资金和松弛的监管支撑了这一泡沫。


The longer the bubble expanded, the larger the explosion and the greater (and more global) the resulting downturn would be.ampnbsp;	这个泡沫扩张的时间越长，破灭的也就越大，而随之而来的衰退也就越大而且越发波及全球。


Economists are good at identifying underlying forces, but they are not so good at timing.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 经济学家擅长于辨别大局，但是他们在时机上并不在行。


The dynamics are, however, much as anticipated.	但是，我们还是大体估计到了推动力量。


America is still on a downward trajectory for 2009 – with grave consequences for the world as a whole.	美国目前还是处于在2009年走下坡路的局面，并给整个世界带来巨大的后果。


For example, as their tax revenues plummet, state and local governments are in the process of cutting back their expenditures.	例如，美国各州和地方政府由于税收下降不得不削减开支。


American exports are about to decline.	美国的出口将会下降。


Consumer spending is plummeting, as expected.	消费开支正如人们所料正在大跌。


There has been an enormous decrease in (perceived) wealth, in the trillions, with the decline in house and stock prices.	随着房价和股价下跌，虚幻财富大大下降，高达数以万亿计。


Besides, most Americans were living beyond their means, using their houses, with their bloated values, as collateral.	此外，大多数美国人寅吃卯粮，把他们高估的房产作为抵押。


That game is up.ampnbsp;	现在狂欢结束了。


America would be facing these problems even if it were not simultaneously facing a financial crisis.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 美国即使并不同时面临金融危机也会遇到这些麻烦。


America’s economy had been supercharged by excessive leveraging; now comes the painful process of deleveraging.	过度的杠杆作用过去一直强力推动美国经济，现在开始了痛苦的杠杆作用解除进程。


Excessive leveraging, combined with bad lending and risky derivatives, has caused credit markets to freeze.	过度的杠杆作用，加之不良贷款和高风险衍生产品导致信贷市场的冻结。


After all, when banks don’t know their own balance sheets, they aren’t about to trust others’.ampnbsp;	毕竟，当银行不知道自己的资产负债情况的时候，他们也就不会相信他人了。


The Bush administration didn’t see the problems coming, denied that they were problems when they came, then minimized their significance, and, finally, panicked.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 布什政府并未预见到问题的来临，在问题来临的时候否认问题，随后对问题的严重性尽量轻描淡写，到了最后就惊慌失措。 保尔森以前鼓吹解除监管并且允许银行进行更大的杠杆运作。


Guided by one of the architects of the problem, Hank Paulson, who had advocated for deregulation and allowing banks to take on even more leveraging, it was no surprise that the administration veered from one policy to another – each strategy supported with absolute conviction, until minutes before it was abandoned for another.	在他的主导下，布什政府在不同政策之间摇摆不定，这也就不足为奇了。 他们对所采取的策略信心百倍，直至弃之而去采纳新的策略。


Even if confidence really were all that mattered, the economy would have sunk.	即使信心是最为重要的东西，经济本也会下跌。


Moreover, what little action has been taken has been aimed at shoring up the financial system.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 而且，他们采取的那一点行动也是集中在巩固金融系统。


But the financial crisis is only one of several crises facing the country: the underlying macroeconomic problem has been made worse by the sinking fortunes of the bottom half of the population.	但是金融危机只是美国危机之一。 整体宏观经济问题由于中下收入水平者财富减少而越发不利。


Those who would spend don’t have the money, and those with the money aren’t spending.	那些本可以花钱的人没钱，而那些有钱的人却不花钱。


America, and the world, is also facing a major structural problem, not unlike that at the beginning of the last century, when productivity increases in agriculture meant that a rapidly declining share of the population could find work there.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 美国和整个世界还在面临一个结构性问题。 这个问题有点像上个世纪初的问题一样。


Nowadays, increases in manufacturing productivity are even more impressive than they were for agriculture a century ago; but that means the adjustments that must be made are all the greater.	当时，农业生产效率提高意味着越来越少的人口可以务农为生。 如今，制造业生产效率提高比一个世纪前农业产业的还要巨大，但是这意味着随之而来的调整也就更为巨大。


Not long ago, there was discussion of the dangers of a disorderly unwinding of the global economy’s massive imbalances.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 不久以前，人们还在讨论在混乱的情况下解除全球经济巨大不平衡的危险。


What we are seeing today is part of that unwinding.	我们今天见到的就是这一解除的一部分。


But there are equally fundamental changes in the global balances of economic power: the hoards of liquid money to help bail out the world lie in Asia and the Middle East, not in West.	但是，全球经济实力平衡还发生了同样重大的变化。 挽救世界的现金不是囤积在西方，而是在亚洲和中东。


But global institutions do not reflect these new realities.	但是全球机制并不反映这些新的现实。


Globalization has meant that we are increasingly interdependent.	全球化还意味着我们越发相互依存。


One cannot have a deep and long downturn in the world’s largest economy without global ramifications.	世界最大的经济体发生长久而严重的衰退，其他地方难以独善其身。


I had long argued that the notion of decoupling was a myth; the evidence now corroborates that view.	我一直以来主张摆脱依存不过是个谣言而已。 现在的证据证实了我的这一观点。


This is especially so because America has exported not just its recession, but its failed deregulatory philosophy and toxic mortgages, so financial institutions in Europe and elsewhere are also confronting many of the same problems.ampnbsp;	这一观点尤其正确，因为美国不仅出口了衰退，而且出口了其失败的解除监管理论依据以及不良房贷。 因此，欧洲和其他地方也正在面临同样的问题。


Many in the developing world have benefited greatly from the last boom, through financial flows, exports, and high commodity prices.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 发展中国家的许多人士通过金融流动、出口以及高昂的基本商品价格从最近的经济繁荣中获益匪浅。


Now, all of that is being reversed.	现在，所有的这些都在��转。


Indeed, it is the ultimate irony that money is now flowing from poor and well-managed economies to the US, the source of the global problems.	金钱正在从贫穷而又管理有方的经济体流向全球问题策源地的美国，这的确是最大的讽刺。


The point of reciting these challenges facing the world is to suggest that, even if Obama and other world leaders do everything right, the US and the global economy are in for a difficult period.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 我提出这些世界面临的挑战的目的就是要表明，即使奥巴马和世界其他领导人步步为营，美国和全球经济还是会进入一个困难时期。


The question is not only how long the recession will last, but what the economy will look like when it emerges.	问题并不是衰退会持续多久，而是衰退结束的时候世界经济将会如何。


Will it return to robust growth, or will we have an anemic recovery, à la Japan in the 1990’s?	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 它是否会回到强劲增长，还是有气无力的复苏，正如九十年代的日本一样？


Right now, I cast my vote for the latter, especially since the huge debt legacy is likely to dampen enthusiasm for the big stimulus that is required.	目前，我预计是后者，很重要的原因是庞大的债务摊子有可能打消对必需的巨大刺激计划的热情。


Without a sufficiently large stimulus (in excess of 2% of GDP), we will have a vicious negative spiral: a weak economy will mean more bankruptcies, which will push stock prices down and interest rates up, undermine consumer confidence, and weaken banks.	没有规模足够巨大的刺激计划(超过2%的GDP)，我们将会有一个恶性循环，也就是经济脆弱导致更多的破产，进而压低股价抬高利率，削弱消费者信心并且削弱银行资产。


Consumption and investment will be cut back further.	消费和投资将会进一步减少。


Many Wall Street financiers, having received their gobs of cash, are returning to their fiscal religion of low deficits.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 许多华尔街金融人士家中早已堆金砌玉，现在又重返其低赤字的财政宗教。


It is remarkable how, having proven their incompetence, they are still revered in some quarters.	这些人已经显得无能，却还在某些角落受到吹捧，真是奇怪。


What matters more than deficits is what we do with money; borrowing to finance high-productivity investments in education, technology, or infrastructure strengthens a nation’s balance sheet.	比赤字更要紧的是我们如何花钱。 借钱资助投资于教育、技术或者基础设施这些高生产效率的项目可以强化国家的实力。


The financiers, however, will argue for caution: let’s see how the economy does, and if it needs more money, we can give it.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 但是，金融人士们却主张谨慎。 他们说，让我看看经济如何发展，如果确实需要钱，我们可以出。


But a firm that is forced into bankruptcy is not un-bankrupted when a course is reversed.	但是被迫破产的公司即使改弦更张也难逃破产结局。


The damage is long-lasting.ampnbsp;	破坏是长久性的。


If Obama follows his instinct, pays attention to Main Street rather than Wall Street, and acts boldly, then there is a prospect that the economy will start to emerge from the downturn by late 2009. If not, the short-term prospects for America, and the world, are bleak.	ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp; 如果奥巴马听从其本能，多听取实体经济而非华尔街的声音并且大胆行动，那么经济就有希望在2009年末走出衰退，如果不是这样，美国以及世界的短期前景是惨淡的。


The Disuniting Kingdom?	联合王国在解体吗？


Three hundred years after the first Scottish Parliament voluntarily voted itself out of existence in 1707, the Scottish National Party has won a plurality in the devolved Scottish parliament that is one of Tony Blair’s great legacies.	在1707年第一个苏格兰议会自行投票解散的三百年后，苏格兰国民党在自治的苏格兰议会中赢得了多数席位。 而自治的苏格兰议会正是布莱尔的重大遗产之一。


Does an SNP-led government herald the break-up of the United Kingdom?	由苏格兰国民党领导的政府是否预示着联合王国的解体呢？


More broadly, does nationalism, that product of nineteenth-century politics, still have a role to play in Europe?	在更为广泛的意义上，民族主义作为十九世纪政治的产物是否依然可以在欧洲发挥作用呢？


The answer to the first question is almost certainly no.	第一个问题的答案几乎肯定是不。


Nationalist polled only 31.9% of the votes cast with parties supporting the union polling 59.6%.	民族主义者只获得了31. 9％的选票，而支持联盟政党的获得59.


Proof positive that proportional representation can produce strange outcomes.	6％的选票。 证据表明，比例代表制可以产生奇怪的结果。


Back in 1957, the motive for “laying the foundations of an ever closer union of the peoples of Europe” was to make war between European nations obsolete, and, in doing so, to bring internal stability to all European nations.	早在1957年，“为欧洲各国人民建立更为紧密联盟的基础”的动机让欧洲各国之间的战争变得过时，而在这一过程中，又给所有的欧洲国家带来内部稳定。


For 50 years, the European Union was not much tested by this mission because nationalist impulses were crushed between the two great Cold War alliances.	50年来，由于民族主义冲动在两次世界大战联盟之间遭到压制，欧盟并没有在这一使命上经受考验。


With those constraints gone, nationalism in both its Bismarckian state-making and ethnic state-breaking guises has gotten a second wind.	这些限制已经不复存在，以普鲁士建国和民族分裂国家为借口的民族主义又重现生机。


When people nowadays speak of nationalism, sinister images from another era come to mind.	人们现在谈论民族主义的时候，头脑中都会显现出另一个时代邪恶的形象。


But nationalism is, of course, not inevitably violent: it flares into conflict only in places with a flammable legacy.	但是，民族主义当然不是不可避免地充满暴力的。 它只有在有暴力传统的地方才会形成暴力。


The break-up of the Soviet Union and its satellite empire shows that the way to address such a legacy is not to force unhappy peoples to live together in one country.	苏联及其卫星国的解体表明，处理这一传统的方式并不是强迫不高兴的人们生活在一个国家之内。


It is to recognize that in some places divorce is inevitable, and to ensure that it is as amicable as possible.	人们应当认识到，在某些地方离婚是不可避免的，并且要确保离婚尽可能地友善。


The world could not have prevented Yugoslavia’s spiral into civil war, but it might have made it less cruel by helping to negotiate terms of separation earlier.	世界可能无法阻止南斯拉夫陷入内战，但是它却可能可以通过帮助在更早的时候谈判达成分离的协议而减少残忍。


Some suggest that the SNP’s accession to power in Scotland does herald the rebirth of a nation, many others regard that claim as rhetoric which ignores the tremendous advances made in the quality of life, opportunity and living standards.	某些人说，苏格兰国民党在苏格兰的掌权预示着一个国家的复生，还有其他许多人认为这一说法无视在生活质量、机遇以及生活水平上取得的巨大进步，因而不过是花言巧语。


If the claim were true it is a rebirth that is coming about in an extraordinary way.	如果这一说法正确，那也是以一种特别的方式产生的国家复生。


Except for some odd and hapless individuals, there have been no underground armies, separatist terrorists, campaigns of civil disobedience aimed at unseating governments, or even any mass demonstrations.	除了某些怪异和不幸的人，没有什么地下武装、分离主义恐怖分子、目的在于推翻政府的民间不服从运动，连大规模示威都没有。


The establishment of a Scottish Parliament vested with powers devolved from the United Kingdom Parliament at Westminster has been perhaps the first revolution of the modern era that was conducted by committees of lawyers, clergymen, and accountants rather than cells of bearded radicals.	建立具有从英国威斯敏斯特授权的议会可能是现代世界中由律师、牧师以及会计师委员会，而不是大胡子的激进分子进行的第一场革命。


Moreover, it was achieved without a shot being fired.	而且，未发一弹就取得了这一结果。


So it is not surprising that it has also been a revolution that – unlike that which divided Czechoslovakia 14 years ago – falls well short of achieving full statehood for Scotland.	所以，不像是14年前捷克斯洛伐克分裂那样，这一场革命距离建立完全的苏格兰国家还相距甚远也就不足为奇了。


The Parliament at Westminster, to which Scots continue to elect MP’s, still controls defense and foreign affairs, macroeconomic policy, taxation, and social security.	苏格兰依然选举议员进入英国议会，而该议会依旧控制着国防和外交、宏观经济政策、税收以及社会安全。


The Scottish Parliament, however, is able to legislate over health services, education, local government, housing, criminal and civil justice, and economic development.	但是，苏格兰议会可以在医疗服务、教育、地方政府、住房、刑事和民事司法以及经济发展等领域立法。


It can also raise or lower the basic rate of income tax – though by no more than 3% – and levy charges, such as road tolls.	它还可以在不超过3％的幅度内提高或降低所得税的基本税率，还可以征收捐税，例如路费。


This semi-independence partly reflects the absence of linguistic motives in Scottish nationalism, unlike the Quebecois of Canada or Flemish nationalism in Belgium.	这种半独立部分地反映了，不像是加拿大的魁北克或者比利时的弗拉芒民族主义，苏格兰民族主义中并没有语言动机。


Gaelic is spoken by only about 80,000 of Scotland’s 5.1 million inhabitants.	苏格兰五百一十万居民中大约只有八万人讲盖尔语。


Nor does religion play a discernible role; while Roman Catholics used to fear independence as being liable to result in Protestant hegemony, today Catholics and Protestants are roughly equal in their support of Scotland’s institutions.	宗教起的作用也并不明显。 信仰罗马天主教的人以前担心独立会带来清教徒的霸权，现在，天主教徒和清教徒在支持苏格兰机制上大体上相等。


Moreover, unlike East European or Balkan nationalism, the Scottish variety has little to do with ethnicity or religion.	而且，与东欧或者巴尔干民族主义不同的是，苏克兰的多样性基本上与种族或宗教无关。


Thus, in Scotland today there are none of the conditions that fomented rebellion in Ireland and led to Irish independence in 1922, the last great rupture in the political union of the British Isles.	因此，在当今的苏格兰不存在爱尔兰酝酿起义并导致爱尔兰1922年独立的条件，而这一事件是英伦群岛政治联盟最近的重大决裂。


Scottish nationalists do look longingly at Ireland, but for its recent phenomenal economic growth.	苏格兰民族主义者的确向往爱尔兰，但是向往的却是它近年来巨大的经济增长。


For most Scots, however, the Irish experience is not an appealing model – perhaps because it is associated with terrorism.	但是对于大多数苏格兰人而言，爱尔兰经验并非是一个有吸引力的模式，可能是因为它与恐怖主义有染。


They also know that the huge financial assistance which Ireland received form the European Union will never be repeated	他们还知道，爱尔兰从欧盟那里获得的巨大财政援助不会再有了。


What motivates Scottish nationalism is the strong attachment to Scotland’s civic institutions.	驱动苏格兰民族主义的是对苏格兰公民机制的依附。


In this respect, Scotland differs from Wales, which was forcibly incorporated into England more than 400 years before the Scots signed the voluntary Act of Union in 1707.	在这一方面，苏格兰有别于威尔士。 在1707年苏格兰签署自愿联盟法案之前400多年，威尔士被迫并入英格兰。


Distinctive Welsh institutions, apart from those concerned with the Welsh language, are difficult to identify.	除了那些关心威尔士语言的人外，很难确认独特的威尔士机制。


By contrast, Scotland’s institutional landscape – schools and universities with their own curriculum and exam structures, a legal system with its own codes and rules, a church independent of the state, and a distinctive system of local government – were left untouched by the union.	与此相对照的是，联盟并没有触及苏格兰的机制框架，包括具有自身课程和考试结构的中小学和大学、独立法典和规则的法律制度、独立于国家的教会以及独特的地方政府体系。


Today’s Scottish parliament helps to dissipate Scottish discontents because it is revitalizing those institutions.	如今的苏格兰议会帮助消散苏格兰人的不满，因为该议会正在重振那些机构。


But it is also propelling British politics into a new and unfamiliar decentralized political system.	英国议会法令不再适用于苏格兰，至少是在教育和医疗等方面如此。


Westminster’s writ no longer runs north of the border, at least as far as things like education and health are concerned. Equally, it is now far harder for Scots to blame a distant government in London for their problems, although the SNP will now try to make blaming Westminster for all ills even more of an art form.	同样，尽管苏格兰国民党现在试图把责任推卸到英国议会上变成一种艺术形式，但是苏格兰人现在也很难把他们的问题责任推卸到伦敦政府上。


So, far from being a harbinger of the break-up of Britain, devolution has brought fresh vitality to national life outside London.	所以，苏格兰自治不仅不是英国解体的前兆，相反给伦敦以外的国家生活带来了活力。


The new confidence in Edinburgh, which is experiencing an economic boom, is self-evident.	苏格兰正在经历经济繁荣，人们对爱丁堡新的信心是��言而喻的。


What is arising is a different Scotland, and a different Britain, and this is Scotland’s lesson for Europe.	现在涌现的是一个不同的苏格兰和不同的英国，而且这是苏格兰带给欧洲的经验。


Britain’s highly centralized political culture has been irreversibly changed.	英国高度集中的政治文化已经不可逆转地改变了。


It is being replaced by a more diverse sort of politics, in which different regional and national identities gain encouragement and expression.	这一文化正在被一个更为多样的政治形式所替代。 在这一政治中，不同地区和民族的身份认同获得了鼓励和表达。


By cooperating with the rest of the United Kingdom, rather than clashing, Scotland is giving new meaning to the phrase “ever closer union.”	苏格兰通过与联合王国其他部分的合作而非冲突正在给“更为紧密的联盟”这一词语注入新的含义。


The Climate Countdown	气候倒计时


LONDON – It seems to have become a ritual for United Nations climate negotiations to reach the brink of collapse before an intense, contentious compromise is achieved after the deadline.	伦敦—联合国气候谈判在截止日期之后、眼看就要谈崩时才能达成紧张的、充满争议的妥协，这似乎已经成了惯例。


But the torturous conclusion to this year’s talks in Doha – in which nearly 200 countries agreed to extend the Kyoto protocol – has merely set the stage for more dramatic negotiations in 2015, when a new comprehensive agreement must be reached.	但今年多哈谈判——20个国家统一延长京都议定书——的唯一痛苦成果是为2015年更重要谈判铺路，那时，我们必须达成一个新的全面协定。


The just-concluded deal establishes a bridge between the old climate regime and a new, as-yet-undefined one.	刚刚结束的谈判在旧气候机制和新的仍有待定义的机制间搭起了一座桥梁。


By extending the Kyoto Protocol – which limits some developed countries’ greenhouse-gas emissions – for another eight years, the Doha agreement preserves the vital framework of international law and retains hard-won accounting rules for emissions allowances and trading between countries.	通过将京都议定书时效延长八年——该议定书限制某些发达国家的温室气体排放量，多哈协议保住了国际法的基本框架，也保住了得之不易的允许排放量计算规则和国家间排放量交易规则。


But the deal also confirms that, in 2020, Kyoto will be replaced by a new treaty, which will discard the outdated binary distinction between “developed” and “developing” countries.	但多哈谈判也确定，到2020年，将以新条约取代京都议定书，新条约将放弃过时的“发达”和“发展中”国家两分法。


The new arrangement will require commitments from all countries that are commensurate with their level of development.	新安排将要求所有国家作出与其发展水平相应的承诺。


The decision in Doha reaffirms that any new agreement must bolster efforts to meet the UN target of limiting global warming to two degrees centigrade.	多哈谈判的决定确认，任何新协定都必须有利于联合国将全球变暖幅度限制在2摄氏度的目标。


Indeed, it will spur a review of countries’ emissions targets, aimed at closing the gap between current pledges and the reductions needed to remain below the two-degree threshold.	事实上，这将促使人们审视各个国家的排放目标，以缩小当前承诺与将全球变暖幅度限制在2摄氏度门槛之下所需的减排量之间的差距。


The deal also creates a new mechanism to compensate the countries that are suffering the most as a result of climate change.	多哈谈判还成立了一个新机制，补偿受气候变化影响最严重的国家。


Moreover, a single negotiation platform has been established, and a 2015 deadline for concluding a new agreement has been set – a much more significant accomplishment than most commentators or governments have recognized.	此外，多哈谈判还建立了一个单一谈判平台，并为新协定的出台划定了2015年的期限——这是一个比大部分评论者和政府所认识到的重要得多的成就。


The last UN climate-change conference took place in Copenhagen in December 2009.	上一次联合国气候变化会议于2009年12月在哥本哈根召开。


In the run-up to that conference, a global campaign put pressure on governments.	在那次会议期间，有全球团体对政府施压。


As a result, the talks were transformed into a full-blown leaders’ summit, with presidents and prime ministers heading to Denmark to seal the deal themselves.	结果，此次谈判演变成了领导人峰会，各国总统和总理纷纷涌向丹麦，亲自上阵谈判。


But the talks failed to deliver a comprehensive, legally binding agreement, causing investors to lose confidence in a low-carbon economy and delaying progress by several years.	但谈判并没有形成全面的、具有法律约束力的协定，这让投资者们对于形成低碳经济的信心大减，也将这方面的进展推迟了数年之久。


Many fear a similar outcome in 2015, given that conditions seem even less conducive to agreement.	很多人担心2015年也会出现相同的结果，因为那时的环境可能更不利于达成一致。


Preoccupied by crisis, the world’s leading economies seem unwilling to make significant new emissions-reduction commitments.	专注于处理危机的世界领先经济体似乎不愿意做出新的重大减排承诺。