Too much specificity on some variables and too much vagueness with regard to others required a renegotiation of the arms-for-land agreement in El Salvador to make it implementable.	正因为当年在某些变量过于特异，同时另一些变量又过于模糊，使得联合国在萨尔瓦多的武器换土地协议必须重新谈判才得以实施。


Seventh, establish different programs for higher-level commanders, providing more orientation, training, credit, and technical assistance.	第七，针对阿军高级指挥官设立特殊项目，为他们提供更多的引导，培训，信贷和技术协助。


The United Nations acknowledged better results from the “Plan 600” in El Salvador than from programs for lower-ranking combatants, which lacked such support.	联合国在萨尔瓦多推行的“600计划”就因为提供了这类协助而取得了比普通低级战士项目更好的成果。


Eighth, increase support for NGOs with successful records in creating entrepreneurs in rural development, in carpet weaving, jewelry design, or any other activity that Afghans want to develop.	第八，增加对那些在农村地区创业方面，包括地毯编织，首饰设计或者其他阿富汗民众希望发展的项目上曾经取得良好效果的非政府组织的支持力度。


Active policies to promote new start-ups and local companies’ expansion through credit, training, and technical support are imperative.	同时推动一系列利用信贷，培训和技术支持新建企业和地方企业扩张的积极政策。


Ninth, establish economic reconstruction zones to jump-start sustainable economic activity, create jobs and export earnings, improve aid effectiveness and accountability, and avoid aid dependency.	第九，设立经济重建特区来启动可持续的经济活动，创造就业和出口收益，改善援助的有效性和公信力，避免出现吃援助的现象。


The zones could combine integrated rural development for domestic consumption and labor-intensive manufacturing and agro-businesses for export.	这些特区将通过当地消费，劳动密集型制造业和出口农业三者结合来实现农村地区的整体发展。


The US and other countries should open their markets to goods produced in these zones.	而美国以及其他地区应当向这些特区的产品开放市场。


Finally, ensure that the political or peace objective prevails at all times, even if it delays economic stability and development.	最后要确保政治或者和平目标在所有时候都能坚决执行，就算影响了经济稳定或者拖延了发展都不能耽误。


This often means accepting that optimal and best-practice economic policies are not attainable – or, indeed, even desirable.	这往往意味着最优以及最有利于实践的经济政策都是无法实现——甚至是人们不愿意看到的。


The independence of the central bank and the “no overdraft” rule for budget financing will almost certainly prove too restrictive to carry out critical peace-supporting activities in Afghanistan.	事实证明中央银行的独立性以及预算财政的“不透支”原则往往会对阿富汗地区某些关键和平行动带来过度的限制。


In settling the Afghan war, the government and donors should seek to eschew the pattern of unkept promises that has bedeviled reconstruction of the country in the past.	为使阿富汗战争能圆满收尾，政府和资助团体都应当避免做出曾困扰阿富汗重建多年的不实承诺。


Only then will Afghanistan be able to break out of its decades-long vicious circle of violence, insecurity, corruption, unemployment, drug trafficking, and aid dependency.	因为只有那样，阿富汗才能冲破近十年以来的暴力、动荡、腐败、失业，运毒以及过度依赖援助的恶性循环。


The Economics of Strategic Containment	战略牵制利弊谈


NEW DELHI – At their recent summit in Cannes, the G-20 shelved, if not buried, the World Trade Organization’s moribund Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiations.	新德里——在最近的戛纳峰会上，G20暂时搁置（如果不是抛弃的话）了濒临失败的世界贸易组织多边贸易谈判多哈发展回合。


Crisis-weary Europe and America face a rising tide of protectionism at home, and are trying to find ways to blunt the edge of China’s non-transparent trade competitiveness.	饱受危机困扰的欧洲和美国正面临着国内保护主义抬头的潮流，忙于寻求遏制中国不透明的贸易竞争优势的办法。


Turning his attention from the Atlantic to the Pacific, US President Barack Obama – with his eye, once again, trained on China – has now unveiled a new regional trade initiative.	将注意力从大西洋转向太平洋之后，美国总统奥巴马——他再一次把矛头指向了中国——现在抛出了一项新的地区贸易方案。


Why was the US unwilling to move forward on the Doha Round, but willing to pursue a regional free-trade agreement?	为什么美国不愿意推进多哈回合，但又试图推行地区自由贸易协定呢？


The answer lies in the fact that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), launched by Obama and the governments of eight other Pacific economies – Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam – is not just about trade.	答案就在以下事实。 由美国及其他八个太平洋经济体政府（澳大利亚、文莱、智利、马来西亚、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡和越南）提出的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系协定（TTP）的目标并不仅是贸易。


While Obama chose to stick to the economic factors driving the TPP, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on the eve of the just-concluded Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in Hawaii, laid out the initiative’s wider strategic context.	奥巴马坚持只强调TTP的经济推动因素，但美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿在刚刚结束的亚太经合组织夏威夷会议上阐述了该协定更为广泛的战略环境。


“The United States will continue to make the case that….[the region] must pursue not just more growth, but better growth,” which “is not merely a matter of economics,” Clinton said. “Openness, freedom, transparency, and fairness have meaning far beyond the business realm,” she continued.	“美国将继续致力于保证（该地区）不仅要增长得更快，还要增长得更好，”这“不仅是经济问题，”希拉里说，“开放、自由、透明、公正的意义远远超过商业，”她又加上了这么一句，“美国不仅要强调经济环境，还要强调政治和社会环境。


“Just as the United States advocates for them in an economic context, we also advocate for them in political and social contexts.”	”


Following up on these remarks, Obama drew attention to persistent US concern about China’s exchange-rate policy, inadequate protection of intellectual property, and impediments to market access.	希拉里话音未落，奥巴马便将世人的关注目标吸引到了美国对中国汇率政策、知识产权保护和市场准入实施情况的持续关注上。


“For an economy like the United States – where our biggest competitive advantage is our knowledge, our innovation, our patents, our copyrights – for us not to get the kind of protection we need in a large marketplace like China is not acceptable,” Obama observed.	“对于像美国这样的经济体——我们最大的竞争力来自知识、创新、专利、版权——无法在像中国这么大的市场上获得所需要的保护，这是不可接受的。 ”奥巴马评论说。


The TPP initiative should be viewed against this background, and not just in the context of the collapse of the Doha Round.	TPP必须从其背景出发进行观察，而不仅是将其置于多哈回合崩溃的环境中。


The TPP’s nine sponsors have resolved “to establish a comprehensive, next-generation regional agreement that liberalizes trade and investment and addresses new and traditional trade issues and twenty-first-century challenges.”	TPP的九个发起国决心“建立一个综合的新一代地区贸易投资自由化协定，解决新老贸易问题，迎接21世纪的挑战。 ”


These leaders also agreed to fast-track the TPP initiative, and to consider opening it to other members – most importantly Japan, a late convert to the idea of a Pacific region free-trade agreement.	九国领导人还同意快速扩张TPP，考虑向其他成员开放——其中最重要的便是最近才接受太平洋地区自由贸易协定思想的日本。


The TPP’s agenda is divided into three categories: core, cross-cutting, and emerging issues.	TPP日程可分为三个方面：核心问题、跨境问题和新兴问题。


The core agenda is to stitch together a traditional free-trade agreement focused on industrial goods, agriculture, and textiles.	核心日程是整合一个关注工业、农业和纺织业产品的传统自由贸易协定。


The agreement would also have provisions for intellectual-property protection and what are dubbed the social and environmental issues.	该协定也将包含知识产权保护以及所谓的社会和环境问题。


In short, the TPP’s core agenda will offer the region a “Doha Round-type” agreement that includes the social and environmental agenda that developing economies have been resisting within the WTO.	简言之，TPP核心日程将为该地区提供一个“多哈式”协定，其中包括发展中经济体在世贸组织极力反对的社会和环境日程。


Going beyond the core, the cross-cutting issues include investor-friendly regulatory systems and policies that enable “innovative” or “employment-creating” small and medium-size enterprises to operate freely across borders within the TPP region.	在核心日程的基础上，跨境问题包括便于投资者的监管体系和政策以使“创新性”和“就业创造型”中小企业能够在TPP地区内自由地跨国经营。


Finally, the TPP seeks to bring into the ambit of a trade and investment agreement “new and emerging” issues.	最后，TPP寻求在贸易和投资协定中纳入“新出现”（new and emerging）的问题。


These include “trade and investment in innovative products and services, including digital technologies, and ensuring state-owned enterprises compete fairly with private companies and do not distort competition in ways that put US companies and workers at a disadvantage.”	其中包括“数字技术等创新性产品和服务的贸易和投资、确保国有企业与私人企业公平竞争以及不以导致美国公司和员工处于劣势的方式扭曲竞争。 ”


In short, the US has moved to bring together all of the economies in the region that are worried about China’s beggar-thy-neighbor trade and exchange-rate policies.	简言之，美国正在试图团结该地区所有担心中国以邻为壑的贸易和汇率政策的国家。


For the US, the eight other TPP countries, with a combined population of 200 million, constitute its fourth largest export market, behind only China, the European Union, and Japan.	对美国来说，其他八个TPP国家总人口可达2亿，能够构成其仅次于中国、欧盟和日本的第四大出口市场。


If Japan joins, the TPP’s importance would rise dramatically.	如果日本加入的话，TPP的重要性还能显著增加。


While the economics of the TPP is important, the strategic component is even more so.	TPP的算盘不可谓不精，但更妙的是其战略意义。


This is the second leg of America’s new “Pacific offensive,” aimed at offering nations in the region an alternative to excessive and rapidly growing dependence on a rising China.	TPP构成了美国新“太平洋攻势”的第二条腿，其目的是为该地区的国家提供一个替代方案，防止它们日益依赖崛起的中国。


The first leg of the offensive was the idea of the “Indo-Pacific” region, which Clinton developed a year ago and followed up this year with an essay called “America’s Pacific Century.”	太平洋攻势的第一条腿是“印度-太平洋”地区思想，由希拉里于一年前提出，并在今年以一篇题为《美国的太平洋世纪》（America’s Pacific Century）的文章为其造势。


There, she defines the new region of US strategic engagement as “stretching from the Indian subcontinent to the western shores of the Americas.”	在这篇文章中，希拉里将这一新的美国战略版图定义为“从印度次大陆到美国西海岸”。


Extending east from the Indian Ocean and west via the Pacific, the US is creating a new strategic framework for the twenty-first century.	从印度洋开始跨越整个太平洋一路东扩，美国正在建设其21世纪的新战略框架。


The TPP is just one of the pillars of that new edifice.	TPP只是这一新庞然大物的支柱之一。


The Economy and the Presidency	经济和总统宝座


CAMBRIDGE – America’s presidential election is now just six months away.	美国剑桥—距离美国总统大选还有半年时间了。


If history is a reliable guide, the outcome will depend significantly on the economy’s performance between now and November 6, and on Americans’ perception of their economic future under the two candidates.	如果历史可以作为可靠指导的话，那么最后的选举结果在很大程度上将决定于现在到11月6日之间的经济表现以及美国民众对两位候选人当选后美国经济未来走向的感觉。


At the moment, America’s economy is limping along with slow growth and high unemployment.	此时此刻，美国经济在低增长和高失业的围追堵截下步履蹒跚。


Output grew by just 1.5% last year, and real GDP per capita is lower now than before the economic downturn began at the end of 2007.	去年产出增长率只有1. 5%，真实人均GDP甚至比2007年底经济收缩开始时还要低。


Although annual GDP growth was 3% in the fourth quarter of 2011, more than half of that reflected inventory accumulation.	尽管2011年4季度GDP增长年率达到了3%，但其中一半是存货积累贡献的。


Final sales to households, businesses, and foreign buyers rose at only a 1.1% annual rate, even slower than earlier in the year.	面向家庭、企业和外国消费者的最终消费增长年率只有1. 1%，甚至还不如2011年上半年。


And the preliminary estimate for annual GDP growth in the first quarter of 2012 was a disappointing 2.2%, with only a 1.6% rise in final sales.	而且之前对2012年GDP1季度增长年率的预测只有可怜的2. 2%，仅增长了1.


The labor market has been similarly disappointing.	劳动力市场的状况也令人失望。


The March unemployment rate of 8.2% was nearly three percentage points above what most economists would consider a desirable and sustainable long-run level rate.	3月失业率为8. 2%，比大部分经济学家认为的合适且可持续的长期水平高出将近3个百分点。


Although the rate was down from 9% a year ago, about half of the change reflected a rise in the number of people who have stopped looking for work, rather than an increase in job creation and the employment rate.	尽管这个数字叫一年前的9%有所降低，但有一半要归因于不少失业者已停止寻找工作的努力，而不是 工作岗位数量和就业率的增加。


Indeed, the official unemployment rate understates the weakness of the labor market.	事实上，官方失业率数字低估了劳动力市场的疲软程度。


An estimated 6% of all employees are working fewer hours per week than they would like, and about 2% of potential employees are not counted as unemployed because they have not looked for work in the past few weeks, even though they would like to work.	据估计，6%的雇员的每周工作时间少于期望时间，大约2%的潜在雇员被计为失业，因为他们在过去数周内想找但没能找到工作。


Adding these individuals to those officially classified as unemployed implies that about 15% of potential labor-force participants are working less than they want.	将这些个人加到被官方失业统计口径中，则有15%的潜在劳动参与者不能如愿工作。


Solid increases in payroll employment at the start of the year contributed to a general sense of confidence.	今年年初注册就业率的稳步增加提振了总体信心。


But the rate of increase in payroll employment fell in March to less than half of the rate recorded in previous months, and the number of workers claiming unemployment benefits recently jumped to a four-month high.	但3月份注册就业率增长率只有前两个月的一半，此外，最近申请失业救济工人数量上升到了四个月来新高。


Even those who are working are seeing their incomes shrink.	即使是有工作者，也在面临收入下跌的窘境。


Real average weekly earnings have fallen in recent months, and are now lower than they were 18 months ago.	在最近几周中，真实平均周薪出现了下降，跌至18个月前的水平之下。


The broader measure of real per capita after-tax personal income has also been falling, and is back to levels last seen a year ago.	跟广义的真实人均税后个人收入指标也在下降，跌到了1年前的水平。


Despite their declining incomes, households raised their spending in early 2012 at a rapid pace by cutting their saving rate to just 3.7%.	尽管收入下降了，但2012年初家庭还是大幅增加了支出，这是通过将储蓄率削减至3. 7%实现的。


Without further declines in the saving rate from this very low level, consumer spending will not continue to grow as robustly.	如果储蓄率不能在如此之低的水平上继续下降，那么消费支出就不可能稳健增长。


Recent reports of declining consumer confidence reinforce the likelihood that spending will slow in the months ahead.	最新报告显示，消费者信心在下降，这增加了支出将在未来几个月有所下降的可能性。


Moreover, the housing market remains in bad shape.	此外，房地产市场疲软依旧。


The most reliable index of comparable house prices has continued to decline month after month, and prices are now about 7% lower in real terms than a year ago, implying a $1 trillion loss of household wealth.	最可靠的可比房价指数一月低过一月，真实价格较一年前下跌了7%，这意味着家庭财富蒸发了1万亿美元。


With roughly 25% of all homeowners with mortgages owing more than their homes are worth, the decline in house prices reflects high rates of default and foreclosure.	大约25%的屋主背负着超过住房价值的按揭，因此房价的下跌意味着违约和收房率的高企。


Falling prices, together with stricter lending standards, has spurred a shift by would-be home buyers to the rental market, causing recent declines in the sales of both new and existing homes.	下跌的价格和收紧的贷款标准一起，将潜在购房者驱赶到了租房市场中，导致最近新屋和旧屋销量双双下降。


The weakness of America’s economy is not limited to the household sector.	美国经济的疲软之势并不局限于家庭部门。


Industrial production has been unchanged for the past two months, and utilization of industrial capacity has declined.	工业产量在过去两个月里停滞不前，工业产能利用率也出现了下降。


And the monthly purchasing surveys conducted by the Institute for Supply Management now indicate weaker activity among service firms as well.	供给管理委员会（Institute for Supply Management）的月度采购调查数字显示，服务企业现在也陷入了颓势。


Looking ahead, strong headwinds imply that it will be difficult to achieve better economic performance in the rest of the year.	放眼未来，阻力重重意味着要在今年余下时间内取得上佳表现非常苦难。 能源价格的上涨正在挤出家庭在非能源商品和服务上的真实支出；


Higher energy prices are reducing real household spending on non-energy goods and services; weakness in Europe and Asia will hurt America’s exports; state and local governments are cutting their spending; and concerns about higher taxes in 2013 will dampen both business investment and big-ticket consumer spending.	州和地方政府正在削减支出； 而对2013年增税的担忧将同时影响商业投资和高端消费者的支出。


The economy is thus shaping up to be a serious liability for President Barack Obama, who is likely to place the blame on the conditions that he inherited from President George W. Bush, and on the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.	因此，经济将成为奥巴马总统的一大劣势，他可能会说是前总统小布什给自己留下了个烂摊子，也可能会把责任推给共和党占多数的众议院。


But the public is likely to place the blame on the president, and surveys indicate that a growing number of Americans believe that Mitt Romney, the almost certain Republican candidate, would do a better job than Obama at managing the economy.	但公众可能会认为责任在总统，而民调结果显示，越来越多的美国人认为几乎已经确定获得共和党候选人资格的米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）在治理经济方面将胜过奥巴马。


The polls are very close, and voters have not yet locked in their decisions.	民调结果显示双方不相上下，选民可能还没有最后决定如何投票。


The economy could rise more sharply than expected in the months ahead.	经济可能会在未来几个月中国出现出乎意料的上扬。


If not, Obama will try to shift attention from the overall economy by emphasizing his plan to raise taxes on high-income individuals.	若非如此，则奥巴马将会强调提高高收入个人税负的计划，从而试图将公众视线从整体经济上移开。


And a variety of other issues, including immigration and the role of women, might influence voters.	而众多其他议题，包括移民法和妇女地位问题，都会影响选民。


But the state of the economy is usually the most important determinant of who wins national elections in the United States.	但经济状况通常才是决定谁能赢得美国总统大选的因素。


And US economic conditions now favor Romney.	而目前看来，美国经济形势有利��罗姆尼。


The Education Myth	教育神话


We all know that more education is a Good Thing, especially for our economic futures.	我们都清楚多受教育是件好事，特别是对经济的未来。


This is why many countries, particularly in Europe, have numerical targets driving their education policies: 50% participation in post-secondary education in the UK or Sweden, for example, or 80% to baccalaureate level in France.	这也解释了为什么很多国家，特别是欧洲国家，设立了推动教育发展的量化目标：举例来讲，英国或瑞典要有50%的人受过高等教育，80%的法国人要达到学士水平。


Chancellor Schroeder’s big idea for solving Germany’s economic problems is, of course, education: including yet more undergraduates in a system struggling to cope with those it has. 	施罗德总理解决德国经济问题的宏伟计划也离不开教育，包括要求已经不堪重负的教育系统培养出更多大学生。


Governments see their main job as delivering economic prosperity, and they view education as a necessary and reliable tool for achieving that end.	政府的主要任务是创造经济繁荣，它们把教育看作实现这一目标必要、也是可靠的途径。 但事实确实如此吗？


We are told that in a “knowledge economy,” a country needs ever more graduates and formal qualifications to stay competitive.	我们总听到在“知识经济”时代，国家要多培养研究生和具备正式资格的劳动者，才有可能保持竞争力。


But education simply does not deliver economic growth the way our politicians – and businessmen – believe: more education in does not mean more growth out.	但教育却没有像政治家－和实业家－想象的那样，为我们带来经济增长：教育的更大投入，并没有带来经济的更多产出。


Worse, the education policies that follow from current beliefs have serious negative consequences for opportunities for young people and the quality of education itself.	更为糟糕的是，现有观念衍生的教育政策对年轻人就业产生了严重的负面影响，也使教育品质面临着严峻的考验。


The argument that education matters for the economy is plausible because, at one level, it is obviously right.	我们常说教育对经济的发展非常重要，这种说法有一定道理，因为在某种程度上，教育显然是经济发展不可缺少的命脉。


A modern society  does need educated people: not just engineers, chemists, and doctors, but millions of people who can write coherent letters, fill in complicated forms, explain insurance policies, and interpret statistical data from machines on factory floors.	现代社会的确需要受过教育的人才：不仅包括工程师、化学家和医生，还包括成百上千万能写出连贯文章、填写复杂表格、解释保险政策和看懂车间设备数据的普通劳动者。


Some of these skills can be learned only in universities; others can (and should) be mastered in primary and secondary schools.	要掌握某些技能只能去上大学，而其余的则能够（也应该）通过初等和中等教育来获得。


Employers naturally tend to hire the most educated workers on offer, and so as the number of graduates increase, so does the number of “graduate” jobs.	老板们自然想雇佣教育程度最高的员工，因此随着毕业人数的增长，要求“学历”的工作也越来越多。


However, every study I know of – whether British, Scandinavian, or American – agrees that large numbers of these “graduate” jobs require no more than they did when non-graduates performed them perfectly well.	但据我所知，所有研究－不管在英国、斯堪迪纳维亚还是美国－都得出了几乎相同的结论：所谓“高学历”工作的要求跟以前没多大差别，没有学历的人也一样能完成的很好。


In this sense, many societies are already “over-educated.”	从这种意义上讲，很多国家已经是“过度教育”了。


But perhaps this is irrelevant.	可这也许无关紧要。


Maybe better-educated workers do their jobs more efficiently, in which case we will surely find a clear relationship between educational attainment and economic growth.	没准儿受过更好教育的员工效率更高，这样我们就能看到教育目标和经济增长间清楚的联系。


Alas, no.	但答案还是否定的。


A few recently industrialized countries have pursued successful government-driven education strategies that seem to boost economic development.	近年工业化的几个国家成功推行了政府教育策略，似乎促进了经济的发展。


But for every such case – South Korea is the favorite example – there is another, like Hong Kong, where meteoric economic growth had nothing to do with centrally planned education policy.	韩国就是这方面最好的例子。 但与此相对的情况也很常见，比如香港，那里飞速的经济发展与中央计划的教育政策毫不相关。


Instead, parents pushed their children towards the best schools to give them an individual head start – something parents do the world over – only after they got richer.	相反，是家长们争先恐后把孩子送进最棒的学校，好让他们在竞争中领先－全世界的父母都是这样－但只有在生活富裕之后。


Moreover, for every South Korea, and every Hong Kong, we can also find developing countries where expanding education merely fueled competition for white-collar jobs in a bloated, deadweight state bureaucracy.	此外，尽管我们有韩国和香港，但相反的例证也并不罕见：教育的发展只是加剧了对政府白领职位的争夺，从而导致官僚机构膨胀，税收负担加重。


Countries like this explain why large international studies often find a  negative relationship between education and growth rates.	这就不难解释为什么大型国际调查常在教育和增长率之间找到反比关系。


Egypt is a classic example of this.	埃及就是这方面的经典案例。


Between 1970 and 1998, its primary school enrollment rates grew to over 90%, secondary schooling soared from 32% to 75%, and university education doubled.	1970到1998年间，那里的小学入学率增长到90%以上，中学入学率从32%上升到75%，大学教育也几乎翻番。


Egypt started the period as the world’s 47th poorest country; it ended the period as the 48th poorest.	但开始时埃及还在全球最穷国家里排名第47位，后来却落到了第48。


But it is not only among developing countries that links between education and growth prove elusive.	但教育和发展间难以捉摸的联系不仅仅存在于发展中国家。


Switzerland has been one of the richest countries in the world for a century – and not because of its natural resources.	一个世纪以来，瑞士一直是全世界最富裕的国家，而且这种财富并没有依赖自然资源。


Yet it has the lowest rate of university attendance in Western Europe.	即便如此，瑞士的大学教育率还是排在西欧国家的倒数第一。


If you look for a relationship between children’s performance on international surveys of achievement, and their countries’ growth rates twenty years on, you will look in vain.	如果你想在国际成就调查中找出孩子们的表现与今后二十年经济发展之间的关系，结果肯定会让你失望。


No such relationship exists.	这种关系根本不存在。


So, while any developed country obviously needs an educated population, the idea that having the most education will get you the most prosperity is a chimera.	因此，尽管所有发达国家都需要公民接受良好的教育，但领先的教育会带来繁荣却只能是种幻想。


Does this matter, though?	可这有关系吗？


Surely, education has other virtues, over and above its economic role.	当然，教育有很多其它好处，远远超过它的经济作用。


So maybe we should stop criticizing and start celebrating governments’ enthusiasm for spending on education.	因此我们也许应该停止批评，开始庆幸政府投资教育的高涨热情。


But this would ignore the dark underside of our educational spiral.	但这会让我们忽视教育链条的阴暗部分。


The creation of more “graduate” jobs only proves that as credentials become more common, they become more important.	更多“高学历”职位的出现只能证明：随着学历凭证的日益普及，它们也变得更为重要。


Moreover, in the past, someone who left school without the “right” qualifications could still succeed, through an apprenticeship or by working his way up from the shop floor.	不仅如此，过去如果有人没取得“很好的”资格就离开学校，他还有成功的机会，只要肯从学徒开始，或从底层开始级级晋升。


Today, that is becoming impossible: we are creating societies in which the sheep and the goats are marked for life in their teens.	而今天，这种可能性已不复存在：在我们正在缔造的社会，从十几岁开始就决定了孩子的终生。


As university attendance becomes more common, fewer capable young people enter vocational training.	随着上大学的机会越来越普遍，有能力的年青人选择职业培训的也越来越少。


Yet our economies still need highly trained craftspeople far more than another batch of arts graduates.	但我们的经济依然需要受过良好培训的工匠，而不是一批又一批的文科毕业生。


Moreover, rapid expansion of university education all too often comes at the expense of quality.	此外，大学教育的快速扩展常常以牺牲质量为代价。


Education is expensive because it uses people: there are no vast economies of scale or leaps in productivity.	教育之所以昂贵是因为需要人力：既不存在规模效益也不存在效率提升。


Relative pay for teachers has been dropping as their total numbers increase, which affects teacher quality.	随着教师数量的增长，相对收入下降已经影响到教师的质量。


University classes become larger, which means that students are taught less effectively.	学校的课堂越来越大，也就是说教育的效果越来越低。


It becomes harder to maintain good university-based research because of the demands of other parts of the education budget. 	由于教育经费要满足其它需求，维持高水准的研究工作也越来越困难。


Is this really the best route to a vibrant economy and a civilized, cultured, and open society?	这难道真是通往经济繁荣、社会文明、修养和开放的捷径吗？


The Education Solution	解决方案在于教育


WASHINGTON, DC – The world is assailed by problems that defy easy answers.	华盛顿——世界正在被难题所困扰。


Economic shocks are destabilizing countries and regions, and inflicting great social and financial hardships on families and their communities.	经济冲击正在动摇各个国家和地区，给家庭和社区带来了头痛的社会和财务困境。


Environmental damage threatens our food supplies, the air we breathe, and the rich biodiversity that sustains the balance of life.	环境破坏威胁着我们的食物供应、我们所呼吸的空气以及维系生命平衡的生物多样性。


Wars and conflict produce millions of new refugees.	战争和冲突制造了数以百万计的新难民。


Moreover, new health risks are emerging, with diabetes, obesity, and other non-communicable diseases now stalking low- and middle-income countries – even as many of those countries are still locked in combat with tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other infectious diseases. Hundreds of millions of young people around the world are searching for jobs in a very uncertain labor market.	此外，新的健康风险正在浮现，糖尿病、肥胖和其他非传染性疾病开始在中低收入国家蔓延，而这些国家往往还受到结核病、艾滋病、疟疾和其他传染性疾病的困扰。 放眼全世界，数以亿计的年轻人必须在充满不确定性的劳动力市场中寻找工作。


The infrastructure we use to produce our energy, transport our goods, and transact our business is under stress.	我们用以生产能源、运输食物、买卖业务的基础设施压力重重。


This list of worries is not meant to discourage, but to challenge.	这份忧虑清单并不是要打击你，而是让你看清挑战。


As the world’s physical resources grow scarcer, we must increasingly rely on the best and most proven renewable resource available – human ingenuity.	随着世界实物资源的日益稀缺，我们必须逐渐依赖最优质、最可靠的可获得再生资源——人类智慧。


Just as they confronted problems in the past, our scientists and entrepreneurs have brought us solutions by way of the Green Revolution, new vaccines, communications technology, and cleaner energy.	在面临历史上的问题和挑战时，我们的科学家和企业家创造出了绿色革命、新疫苗、通信技术、清洁能源，一次又一次地给我们带来了解决方案。


Scholars and leaders have given us the means to identify and resolve social and economic dilemmas.	学者和领袖教给我们识别并解决社会和经济难题的办法。


Rising levels of education have given people more control over their own health, household circumstances, governments, and culture.	教育水平的提高使得人们能够更多地控制自身健康状况、家庭环境、政府以及文化。


The global challenges that we face today are proof that we need a world of problem solvers.	我们所面临的全球挑战表明，我们的世界需要问题终结者。


We need a world of people who are productive, resilient, creative, and versatile enough with technology and culture to find solutions to the many challenges we face.	我们需要一个生产率高、适应性好、创新性强、技能多样的世界，用技术和文化去寻找我们所面临的诸多挑战的解决办法。


Education helps to build that world.	教育有助于打造这样的世界。


Households with more education cope better with economic shocks and with extreme weather events.	教育程度高的家庭能够更好地应对经济冲击和极端天气事件。


People with higher levels of education earn more, have more control over their fertility, and have healthier and better-educated children.	教育程度高者收入更高，对生育控制得更好，子女更健康、教育也更优质。


Education gives people the skills to earn a living, to innovate, to invent, and to access culture – all of which allows them to live more fulfilling lives.	教育给了人们求生、创新、发明以及理解文化的技能，而这一切能让我们生活得更满足。


The good news is that the global community has united to help all people acquire these skills – and with real results.	好消息是，国际社会已经联合起来帮助所有人都能获得这些技能，而且已经产生了实效。


In 1990, a broad coalition of governments, the World Bank, United Nations agencies, and civil-society organizations committed to a strategy called “Education for All.”	1990年，多国政府、世界银行、联合国机构和公民社会组织共同承诺了一项“有教无类”（Education for All）的战略。


Twenty years later, there has been significant progress in enrolling children in school and expanding access to secondary school and universities.	20年过去了，在儿童入学和推广中学及大学教育方面取得了长足的进步。


Globally, 88% of children now complete primary school, and 67% go on to enroll in secondary school.	从全世界看，如今88%的儿童能够完成小学学业，67%可以进入中学。


But low-income countries are still far from meeting the goal of ensuring that all children complete primary school: only 63% of children in those countries achieve that milestone.	但低收入国家还远未达到确保所有儿童完成小学学业的目标：在这些国家中，只有63%的儿童能够从小学毕业。


Poor children, children with disabilities, girls, and ethnic minorities still face daunting barriers to education.	贫困儿童、残疾儿童、女童以及少数民族儿童仍然面临着森严的教育壁垒。


Many countries struggle simply to build schools quickly enough to keep up with population growth.	许多国家的学校建设速度比不上人口增长速度。


Severely overcrowded classrooms, lacking in trained teachers and basic supplies, are not uncommon.	过度拥挤的教室、合格教师和基本供给的缺乏绝非个别现象。


In the rush to expand services, school systems have sometimes neglected teachers’ professional development, student assessment, and even basic building standards.	为了快速扩张，有时学校体系会忽视教师职业发展、学生评价甚至基本的校舍标准。


Over the years, we have learned that the real challenge is not just to enroll children in school, but to help them to acquire the skills necessary for employment, entrepreneurship, family life, and citizenship.	多年来，我们已经认识到，真正的挑战并非让孩子入学了事，而在于帮助他们获得就业、创业、家庭生活和成为公民所必需的技能。


The World Bank’s new education strategy, “Learning for All – Investing in People’s Knowledge and Skills to Promote Development,” highlights this imperative.	世界银行的新教育战略——“有教无类——为促进发展投资人类知识和技能”（Learning for All – Investing in People’s Knowledge and Skills to Promote Development）——便以此为目标。


It emphasizes the need to invest early, nurturing young children to ensure that they arrive at school healthy and ready to learn; to invest smartly, transforming schools with good teachers, good materials, and good management; and to invest for all, laying the foundation for just and equitable societies.	该战略强调必须及早地投资，加强幼儿营养以确保他们能够健康地进入学校并为学习打下基础； 必须精明地投资，为学校提供优质师资、优质物质条件和优质管理；


The strategy rightly recognizes the importance of building systems that support the development of education on a large scale.	该计划正确地认识到，建设大规模支持教育发展的体系是很重要的。


Sufficient numbers of teachers, school buildings, and textbooks are all essential, but accelerating learning requires much more.	师资、校舍和教材的充分供应是基础中的基础，但要加快学习，光有这些是远远不够的。


We need well-designed systems of finance, student assessment, professional development and management, quality assurance, and monitoring and evaluation.	我们需要设计良好的融资、学生评价、职业发展和管理、质量保证以及监督及评估体系。


We need more robust and transparent relationships between central and local governments, state and private education providers, and households and communities.	中央和地方、国立和私人教育供应者、家庭和社区之间需要有更加稳健和透明的关系。


And we need stronger links between schools and employers to ensure that graduates acquire skills that are relevant to a changing job market.	学校和雇主之间的联系需要加强，以确保毕业生能获得适应变化中的就业市场的技能。


We have much to learn from systems that have demonstrated continuous improvement, in contexts as varied as Singapore, Chile, Ghana, Slovenia, and England.	我们可以从表现出持续改善的体系中学到很多东西，比如新加坡、智利、加纳、斯洛文尼亚和英格兰。


While each of these countries had very different starting points, progress has been aided by the political will to measure outcomes and learn from results, define a sustainable path for change, and make smart, effective investments.	这些国家的起点大相径庭，但这些国家拿出了衡量成果、总结经验、提出可持续的变化路径以及进行精明有效投资的政治意愿，极大地推动了教育进步。


To foster learning about how systems improve, the World Bank is embarking on a major initiative to assess the quality of education policies around the world.	为了学习如何改善体系，世界银行正在着手推出一项评估全球教育政策质量的宏大计划。


Its new databases will catalogue which policies countries have adopted to promote learning in each part of the education system, in areas ranging from teacher policies to student assessment to school financing mechanisms.	新的数据库将对被各国采用以促进了解教育体系各方面的政策予以编目，包括教师政策、学生评定和学校融资机制。


Our goal is to facilitate the spread of good policy and practice, allowing countries to learn from a variety of approaches and to understand which ones might work in their own context.	我们的目标是协助推广好的政策和实践，让各国从多个角度了解那些政策适合自身具体情况。


The case for improving education systems is urgent.	改善教育体系的任务是紧迫的。


Imagine our world, 20 years from now, if we could educate a new generation of young people so that they have the skills and creativity to take on the great economic and technological challenges of the day.	你可以想象一下，20年后，如果我们可以给年青一代提供很好的教育，让他们掌握迎接重大经济和技术时代挑战的技能和创造力，世界将会变得怎样。


Imagine, in particular, that all girls are educated, with all the profound benefits that this would yield in the areas of population growth, health and welfare, poverty alleviation, human rights, and politics.	特别是，你可以想象一下，所有的女孩都能接受教育的情景，想象一下这给人口增长、健康与福利、扶贫、人权和政策等世界方方面面带来的巨大好处。


Now imagine the alternative and ask yourself: Which world do I want to live in?	然后，想象一下若非如此会是如何，然后扪心自问：你愿意生活在哪个世界中？


Reefer Madness?	大麻疯狂？


LONDON – Is cannabis harmful to mental health?	伦敦—大麻精神健康有害吗？


That question has provoked much debate over the years, often generating more heat than light.	这一问题引起了多年的争论，其热度可谓如火如荼。


The bottom line is this: within the scientific community, there is a general consensus that most people who use cannabis will not develop significant mental-health problems.	总结起来是这样的：在科学界，一个一般的共识是，大部分大麻使用者不会产生严重的精神健康问题。


Certain individuals, however, are more susceptible to the negative effects of its use.	不过，一些个体更容易因为使用大麻而出现副作用。


It was long thought that cannabis was a relatively harmless drug, and that concerns about its use were overstated.	长久以来，人们一直认为大麻是伤害相对较小的毒品，对大麻的担心有些小题大做。


Some psychiatrists had reported that excessive use could lead to a psychotic state, including hallucinations, delusions, and thought disturbance.	一些医生报告说，过量使用大麻会导致精神病症状，包括幻觉、妄想和思维错乱。


But the first significant indication of a link between cannabis use and psychotic illness came only in 1987, from a large Swedish study that followed more than 50,000 subjects over 15 years.	但大麻使用和精神病联系的第一个重要指标出现在1987年瑞典的一项大型研究中。 这项研究对超过5万对象进行了超过15年的跟踪研究。


Reported cannabis use at the study’s start increased the likelihood of being diagnosed with schizophrenia in the next 15 years.	报告开始时报告的大麻使用增加此后十五年中被诊断为精神分裂症的可能性。


The greater the use, the higher the likelihood of being diagnosed.	大麻使用得越多，被诊断为精神分裂症的可能性越高。


Curiously, this finding did not spur much interest, and no similar studies were reported until 2002.	有趣的是，这一发现并没有刺激多少兴趣，并且在2002年以前再无类似研究出台。


Since then, however, many studies have explored the association between cannabis use and psychotic illness.	但是，2002年之后，许多研究探索了大麻使用和精神疾病之间的联系。


In 2007, a compilation of the best studies concluded that frequent (daily) cannabis use doubles the risk of a psychotic outcome.	2007年，一份对最佳研究的汇总发现，频繁（每日）食用大麻会导致精神病结果风险提高一倍。


Since the lifetime prevalence of a psychotic illness is roughly 1% of the population, daily cannabis use would increase this to 2%.	精神疾病的终身患病率大约为总人口的1%，因此每日使用大麻会使这一几率升至2%。


Of course, the existence of a positive correlation between cannabis use and psychosis does not allow us to draw a direct causal link between the two.	当然，大麻使用和精神病之间存在正相关并不意味着我们可以在这两者之间划出一条明确的因果线。


Psychosis could cause cannabis use, rather than vice versa, or an unknown mediating factor could cause both cannabis use and psychosis.	可能是精神病导致大麻的使用，而不是相反，或是某种未知中介因素同时导致了大麻使用和精神病


Other factors already complicate the relationship.	其他因素让个中关系变得更加复杂了。


For example, the age at which cannabis use begins appears to be an important factor.	比如，初次使用大麻的年龄似乎是一个重要因素。


People who started using cannabis before the age of 16 have a higher risk of psychosis compared to those who start after 18.	16岁以前就开始使用大麻的人比18岁之后才开始的人患精神病的风险更高。


This is in line with biological evidence suggesting that the maturing brain is more susceptible to the negative impact of cannabis.	这与表明发育成熟的大脑更能抵御大麻的消极作用的生物学证据一致。


Recent research has shown that a particular variant of a gene called AKT1 mediates the risk of psychosis.	最新研究表明，一个叫AKT1的基因的特殊变体是精神病风险中介。


For carriers of the C/C variant (which occurs in roughly 20% of the population), the risk of psychosis increased seven-fold – but only for the people who used cannabis every day.	对C/C变体的携带者来说（大约占总人口的20%），精神病风险会提高七倍——但只局限于每天使用大麻者。


Using cannabis on weekends or less often posed no increased risk, which was also the case for daily and weekend use among carriers of the C/T and T/T variants of AKT1.	只在周末使用大麻或频率更低者通常并不会更易患上精神病，每日和周末使用大麻的AKT1的C/T和T/T变体携带者也是如此。


Moreover, different strains of cannabis pose more or less risk for psychosis.	此外，不同的大麻菌株引起的精神病风险也各不相同。


A comparison of the two most common types of cannabis in the United Kingdom, hash and sinsemilla (“skunk”), found that using skunk implied a significantly greater risk of psychosis, while hash did not.	对英国最常见的两种大麻，hash和sinsemilla（“臭鼬”）的比较发现，使用臭鼬大麻的精神病风险显著较高，而hash大麻则否。


The explanation for this difference lies in the composition of the two main components of cannabis, delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and cannabidiol (CBD).	如此差别的原因在于两种大麻主要成分——德尔塔-9-四氢大麻酚（HTC）和大麻二酚（CBD）的组成不同。


Skunk in the UK has high levels of THC while being virtually devoid of CBD; hash, on the other hand, has roughly equal quantities of the two components.	英国臭鼬大麻的HTC水平较高，而几乎不含CBD； 另一方面，hash大麻的HTC和CBD含量基本相同。


This was highlighted in our lab when healthy volunteers were given either pure THC or THC and CBD.	这一点凸显于我们实验室的实验中。 我们对健康的志愿者使用纯THC或兼用THC和CBD。


Those who received only THC had a significant increase in paranoid thoughts, psychotic symptoms, and memory impairment, while those who received the combination experienced no paranoia, had fewer psychotic symptoms, and maintained memory function.	只用HTC的志愿者狂想症状、精神分裂症状和记忆损害症状显著上升，而两者兼用的志愿者没有出现狂想症状，精神分裂症状较轻，记忆也没有受损。


Some studies have also explored the role of cannabis use in disorders such as depression and anxiety.	一些研究还探索了大麻使用在精神失常方面的作用，比如抑郁和焦虑。


While little sign of a link has been found, there is better evidence for the addictive potential of cannabis.	没有信号显示使用大麻与精神失常有关，但得到了关于大麻致瘾力的更好的证据。


Roughly 10% of people who smoke cannabis go on to develop dependence, which produces withdrawal symptoms when use is stopped, such as craving, irritability, sleep disturbances, abdominal pain, and nervousness.	在抽大麻的人群中，大约10%会发展出依赖性，当大麻使用停止时会出现脱瘾症状，如饥渴、兴奋、睡眠干扰、腹痛和紧张。


Again, CBD seems to offset the addictive effects of cannabis, and seems to provide relief from withdrawal symptoms.	在这里，CBD似乎能抵消大麻的致瘾效果，并能缓解脱瘾症状。


Many studies have focused on the possible negative impact of cannabis use on memory and other cognitive functions.	许多研究关注大麻使用对记忆和认知功能的可能消极影响。


It is generally accepted that frequent and prolonged cannabis use impairs cognitive functioning, but that these effects are reversible following abstinence of 3-12 months.	被普遍接受的一点事，频繁且长期使用大麻会伤害认知功能，但在戒除大麻3—12个月内，这种伤害是可逆的。


However, a recent study that followed people from birth to age 38 found that those who started using cannabis early, every day, and for several years had a permanent 8-point drop in IQ scores.	但是，一份从出生跟踪到38岁的最新研究发现，很早就开始使用大麻且每天使用维持多年者会造成智商评分下降8分，且这一影响是永久的。


(The study has not yet been replicated.)	（该研究尚未有重复。 ）


A final, and often-overlooked, source of harm to mental health associated with cannabis is the legal fallout of being caught with it.	与大麻有关、但常被忽视的最后一项伤害是被抓的法律后果。


Penalties for cannabis possession range from none (for example, the Netherlands and Portugal) to legal warnings, fines, and even life imprisonment (Southeast Asia).	占有大麻的惩罚从各国各不相同，荷兰和葡萄牙等国家不予惩罚，东南亚国家则会处以法律警告、罚款甚至终身监禁。


A criminal record can negatively affect future employment, education, and ability to travel.	犯罪记录不利于未来就业、教育和旅行。


Such consequences may carry independent risks to mental health; for example, unemployment poses a significant risk for suicide, anxiety, depression, and psychosis.	这些后果会带来独立的精神健康风险； 比如，失业会极大提高自杀、焦虑、抑郁和精神病风险。


So, does cannabis use harm mental health?	那么，大麻使用到底会不会危害精神健康？


Yes and no.	既会又不会。


Much depends on how old you are when you start, your genes, and how much, how often, and what kind you use – and, of course, on whether you get caught.	很大程度上取决于你几岁开始使用、你的基因、使用多少、使用频率如何、使用哪种大麻——当然，还有你是否会被抓住。


The Middle East Turmoil Trap	中东乱局陷阱


MADRID – Instability continues to spread in the Middle East, with the military coup in Egypt the latest episode to trigger political tremors throughout the region.	马德里—动荡仍在中东蔓延，埃及军事政变只是触发全地区政治地震的最新事件。


With its 85 million people and strategically vital location, Egypt is the most important country on the Mediterranean’s southern shore.	埃及有8500万人口，又位于战略要冲，乃是地中海南岸最重要的国家。


Continuing the democratization process that began there in 2011 is urgent.	让埃及始于2011年的民主化过程继续下去是个紧迫任务。


The Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamist government, led by Mohamed Morsi, demonstrated all too well its incompetence and incapacity to ensure an inclusive democratic transition.	穆尔西领导下的穆斯林兄弟会的伊斯兰教政府已经表明，它无能也无力确保包容的民主转型。


But the solution offered by Egypt’s military is far from ideal.	但埃及军队给出的解决方案也与理想状态相去甚远。


Coups always tend to exacerbate problems, not solve them, and this one is no exception.	政变总是会恶化而不是解决问题，埃及也不例外。


The first consequence is that Egyptian society is even more divided over the question of political legitimacy.	第一个后果是埃及社会在政治合法性的问题上分歧愈加严重了。


Morsi’s supporters cite the legitimacy of his victory in a democratic election a year ago – and the illegitimacy of the army’s coup and detention of the deposed president – while his opponents defend the legitimacy of the massive, countrywide protests against him.	穆尔西的支持者认为穆尔西从一年前的民主选举中获胜，因此拥有合法性，而军队的政变以及拘禁下台总统是不合法的，他的反对者则指出全国人民都在游行反对穆尔西，推翻他也具有合法性。


The Muslim Brotherhood tried to go too far too fast.	穆斯林兄弟会太急躁冒进。


Its Islamist agenda put crucial state institutions – namely, the army and the judiciary – on edge and clashed with the liberal, modernizing demands of its opponents.	其伊斯兰日程把关键的国家机构——即军队和司法系统——推向了边缘化，也与反对者的自由主义和现代化要求相悖。


The Tamarod movement, which organized the protests that led to Morsi’s ouster, celebrated the military’s decision to intervene.	推翻穆尔西的示威游行的组织者——“反抗”（Tamarod）运动因军队决定干预而欢呼雀跃。


That precedent is, without doubt, dangerous for a fledgling democracy.	毫无疑问，树立这样的先例对尚在襁褓中的民主是危险的。


The Islamists must have representation in order to ensure that they do not renounce the ballot box as a means of pursuing their objectives.	伊斯兰必须拥有代表，以确保他们放弃通过投票箱追求自己的目标。


Neither the Islamists nor the military can build a new regime against the will of a significant part of the population.	不论是伊斯兰教还是军队，都无法在没有获得广大人口支持的情况下建立新政权。


Despite Morsi’s poor performance in office – a year in which he presided over grave economic deterioration – a solution that served the cause of national and regional stability would have been preferable.	穆尔西的执政生涯表现拙劣——在他当总统的一年中，埃及经济濒临崩溃。 尽管如此，成为国家和地区稳定之源的解决方案依然更值得追求。


Instead, the coup, coming just one year after the formation of an elected government – and just a few months after then-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Morsi to mark the end of hostilities between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip – could give rise to great frustration among Islamists across the region.	反之，当选政府组成不到一年——距离时任美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿与穆尔西会面、标志以色列和加沙地带哈马斯结束敌对状态更是只有几个月——就爆发政变将给整个地区的伊斯兰教徒带来深深的挫败感。


Indeed, the region’s geostrategic situation has changed again since the Clinton-Morsi meeting, and the response of both the United States and the European Union (for which the Mediterranean is crucial) has been late and erratic.	事实上，自克林顿-穆尔西会晤以来，该地区地缘政治局势已经发生了改变，而美国和欧盟的反应（对欧盟来说，地中海至关重要）姗姗来迟又飘忽不定。


It is not clear who are allies and who are not.	谁是朋友，谁是敌人无法认清。


The EU, in particular, should engage the region with clearer, more coordinated, and more effective policies.	特别是欧盟，它应该以更明确、更协调、更有效的政策介入该地区。


Aside from the domestic situation, Egypt has another urgent problem.	除了国内局势，埃及还有另一个紧迫问题。


Egyptians depend on the Nile River, and Ethiopia has begun construction upstream of what will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam.	埃及人依赖尼罗河，而埃塞俄比亚已开始在尼罗河上游建设非洲最大的水电站大坝。


The project is being pursued in the face of strong Egyptian objections – military intervention has been threatened – yet it continues apace.	这项工程是在埃及的强烈反对意见——甚至不惜威胁军事干预——中开工的，但进展颇为迅速。


If the dam is built as planned, the volume of water flowing northward could be reduced by 20%, jeopardizing Egyptian agriculture and the livelihood of millions of people.	按计划建成后，向北流入埃及的水流量将减少20%，威胁埃及的农业和千百万人的生活。


The coup in Egypt may have serious regional consequences as well.	埃及政变还可能造成严重的地区后果。


Syria remains mired in a bloody civil war that has already caused more than 100,000 deaths.	叙利亚仍陷于血腥内战之中，已有10万多人因此丧命。


Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has celebrated the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood’s government, and is seeking to use Morsi’s failures and removal as justification for repression at home, making it even more difficult to find a political solution that would end the fighting.	叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权对穆斯林兄弟会政府的倒台弹冠相庆，并在寻求利用穆尔西的失败和下台作为国内镇压的依据，从而让寻求结束战争的政治方案更加难以形成了。


The Syrian opposition, a crucible of widely different groups and currents – including Al Qaeda – will most likely become even more radical following Morsi’s ouster.	叙利亚反对派是由众多大相径庭的集团和势力组成的乌合之众，基地组织也在其中。 穆尔西下台后，他们极有可能变得更加极端。


For Hamas, strongly linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, the coup means losing Egypt’s support, which also implies that Israel is one of the countries that stand to benefit the most from the coup.	对与穆斯林兄弟会关系密切的哈马斯来说，埃及政变意味着失去埃及的支持，这也意味着以色列将是政变的最大受益者之一。


Qatar, which had been Morsi’s main protector (by offering a large credit line) and is in the midst of its own political transition, has remained detached from Egypt’s turmoil.	作为穆尔西主要保护人（提供大量贷款）的卡塔尔自身也处于政治转型期，一直置身于埃及动荡之外。


The rift between the Gulf monarchies is becoming ever clearer, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates quick to finance the post-coup government.	波斯湾君主国之间的裂痕正在日渐清晰，沙特和阿联酋立刻为政变后政府提供了资金支持。


Turkey, which had often proclaimed its Islamist democratic model as a goal for other Muslim-majority countries seeking democratic change, has also lost out as a result of the coup in Egypt.	土耳其过去经常自称其伊斯兰民主模式可以作为其他穆斯林多数国家追求民主变革的目标，但它也是埃及政变的受害者。


Turkish foreign policy had sought to create a regional order, with the participation of other Sunni Islamic regimes, in accordance with the country’s interests.	土耳其外交政策一直在寻求按照自身利益建立地区秩序，让其他逊尼���伊斯兰政权参与进来。


Egypt was clearly the most important part of this strategy, and its political instability has raised questions not only about Turkey’s political model, but also about the security of its economic interests.	埃及显然是这一战略的最重要部分，而埃及政治动荡不但导致土耳其政治模式受到质疑，也威胁到了其经济利益安全。


The future of Iran is another matter of great regional importance that remains unresolved, postponed until the new president, Hassan Rowhani, takes office.	伊朗的未来是另一个具有重大地区重要性的悬而未决的问题，在新总统鲁哈尼开始执政前，伊朗问题被暂时搁置。


It is hardly encouraging that there has not been any serious gesture toward the country from the US or the EU since Rowhani’s election victory in June.	自鲁哈尼6月获得选举胜利以来，美国和欧盟都没有严肃表态，这可不是令人振奋之事。


In short, the Middle East is sinking into deeper turmoil, and we are farther away from finding a solution in Syria, Egypt, and other key sources of regional instability.	简言之，中东正在走向更深层次的动荡，而我们距离找到埃及、叙利亚和其他地区动荡之源的解决方案更加遥远了。


There is much handwringing, but too little serious thought about how to strengthen the region’s security, economy, and social model.	令人绝望的局面很多，但如何强化该地区安全、经济和社会模式的严肃思考太少。


The Egyptian Crucible	埃及的考验


MADRID – As Egyptians tensely awaited the results of their country’s presidential elections, a thread of pessimism ran through the discourse of the young people and secular liberals who had brought down Hosni Mubarak in January 2011.	马德里—在埃及人民翘首期待总统大选结果的同时，2011年1月推翻穆巴拉克的年轻人和世俗自由派发出了悲观的声音。


The “anything is possible” sensation of the Tahrir Square rebellion had faded, and now two candidates whom the protesters deeply opposed, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi, and Ahmed Shafiq, a factotum of the old regime (and of the current military government), prepared to face off in the second round.	解放广场起义时的“一切皆有可能”的感觉已经不复存在，眼下，当初的示威者所深深反对的两位候选人——穆斯林兄弟会的穆尔西以及旧制度（和现任军政府）大总管莎菲克——正准备在第二轮大选中决一死战。


The triad of fundamental forces driving Egypt since the beginning of the Arab Spring – the military, the mosque, and the masses in Tahrir Square, each with different types of power and interests – was thus broken.	自阿拉伯之春肇始以来，有三大基本因素推动着埃及前进——军队、清真寺以及解放广场上的群众，他们力量和利益各不相同。


Those who filled Tahrir Square 16 months ago were silenced, and the expected transfer of power from the military to a civilian, democratic government was thrown into doubt.	如今，它们早已分道扬镳。 16个月前在解放广场起事的群众沉默了，被寄予厚望的军政府向文治民主政府的过渡也蒙上了阴影。


Since assuming power after Mubarak’s fall, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), led by Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, a defense minister for two decades under Mubarak, has consistently undermined the delicate work of democratic transition.	穆巴拉克倒台后，武装部队最高委员会（SCAF）执掌了权力。 SCAF的领导人是坦塔维（Mohamed Hussein Tantawi）陆军元帅，此人在穆巴拉克时代担任国防部长20年。


The week before the presidential elections, the SCAF-allied Constitutional Court dissolved the recently elected parliament, alleging illegality in the voting process.	SCAF掌权后，一直在破坏民主转型脆弱的成果。 在总统大选前一周，SCAF的盟友宪法法院解散了新近选出的议会，宣称投票过程不合法。


And, foreseeing Morsi’s victory, SCAF assumed all legislative powers; severely limited the president’s powers; seized the authority to appoint the committee tasked with drafting the new Constitution; took control of the country’s budget; and claimed sole power over domestic and foreign security.	此外，在预见到穆尔西将在大选中胜出后，SCAF掌握了所有立法权，极大地限制总统权力，把持权力机关任命新宪法起草委员会成员，夺取埃及预算控制权，还控制着国内和对外安全事务的独家垄断权。


As a result, Egypt’s power struggle will continue, with the junta no longer battling those in Tahrir Square, but political Islam.	结果，埃及的权力斗争将继续进行，SCAF争权的对象不再是解放广场上的人民，而是伊斯兰政客。


After a decades-long clandestine (although tolerated) existence within Egyptian society, Islamist forces were able to take advantage of the Tahrir protests, despite playing no integral part in them.	伊斯兰主义势力在埃及社会中秘密存在（尽管被人民所容忍）了几十年，终于得以利用解放广场的示威走向台面，尽管他们并没有在示威运动中扮演任何角色。


The secular liberal forces’ political fragmentation and lack of organization cost them dearly in the parliamentary elections six months ago, and, in the second round of the presidential election, a majority of Egyptians chose Morsi over a restoration of the old regime.	世俗自由派力量的政治脆弱性和缺乏组织让他们在半年前的议会选举中付出了沉重代价，在第二轮总统大选中，大多数埃及人选择了穆尔西，而没有选择重建旧制度。


But Morsi’s narrow margin of victory (just 3.5 percentage points) over Shafiq, and low voter turnout – 46.4% in the first round and 51.8% in the second – reflect a polarized, exhausted society that lacks confidence in the electoral process and the candidates.	但穆尔西对莎菲克的胜势并不大（只有3. 5个百分点），投票率也很低（第一轮为46.


Moreover, the outcome has merely fueled further uncertainty about Egypt’s direction.	8%），这反映出一个极端化、筋疲力尽的社会对选举程序和候选人缺乏信心。 此外，大选结果只能进一步增加埃及发展方向的不确定性。


With Morsi’s victory, some now fear that the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to implement radical policies aimed at Islamizing a Muslim country that is already conservative, but that has had a secular government for decades.	穆尔西获胜后，一些人担心穆斯林兄弟会将采取极端政策，寻求将埃及这个几十年来一直由世俗政府治理的保守穆斯林国家伊斯兰化。


Others do not believe that the Muslim Brotherhood will go so far, but nonetheless doubt that the Brothers will defend a secular, truly democratic regime in the ongoing negotiations with SCAF on a transition to civilian rule.	其他人认为穆斯林兄弟会不会如此极端，但也担心穆斯林兄弟会在与SCAF就向文治转型的谈判过程中不会坚持世俗的真正民主制度。


In either scenario, Morsi has little room to maneuver in a country that, for the time being, is in political limbo – with neither a constitution nor a parliament – and whose people want tangible results in terms of good governance, institutional consolidation, and improvements to a tottering economy.	不管哪种情景成为现实，穆尔西都没有多少空间驾驭这个国家。 长期以来，埃及已经陷入了政治僵局，既没有宪法，也没有议会，其人民想要的是看得见的结果��—良好的治理、制度的巩固，以及步履蹒跚的经济的改善。


Indeed, living standards have been under severe pressure since Mubarak’s downfall.	事实上，自穆巴拉克倒台以来，埃及人民的生活标准就承受着巨大压力。


In 2011 alone, net capital inflows fell nearly 90% year on year, tourism was down 30%, the trade deficit soared to $28 billion, and GDP growth slowed from 3.8% to 1%.	光是在2011年，资本流入同比下降90%，旅游收入下降30%，贸易赤字猛增280亿美元，GDP增长从3. 8%降为1%。


The success or failure of Morsi’s government will rest largely on the economy.	穆尔西政府的成败与否很大程度上将取决于经济。


For the Muslim Brotherhood, this scenario constitutes a serious challenge, one that can be overcome only by finding an adequate balance between SCAF, with its overweening power, and Egypt’s liberal political forces – which won a combined 11 million votes, five million more than Morsi, in the presidential election’s first round.	对穆斯林兄弟会来说，这样的前景可谓艰巨挑战，只有成功地在SCAF及其自负实力以及埃及自由派政治势力（在首轮总统大选中总共获得了1100张选票，比穆尔西还多500万张）之间找到平衡才能克服这一挑战。


Only this will give a Morsi administration the necessary legitimacy and capacity to carry out a joint transition with the military for a true change of regime.	惟其如此，穆尔西政府才能获得必要的合法性和能力和军方联手实现转型，真正改变埃及的制度。


The liberals, for their part, did not support Morsi in the run-off with Shafiq.	至于自由派，他们在第二轮投票中并不支持穆尔西。


But it was their efforts that made the presidential election possible in the first place, and many now believe that close collaboration with the Brothers is the only available option that can restore some of the spirit of an endangered revolution in which they were the protagonists.	但他们的存在使得总统大选的第一轮得以进行。 此外，如今他们当中许多人认为与穆斯林兄弟会紧密合作乃是重振曾以他们为主角的、如今陷入四面楚歌的革命精神的唯一办法。


This presupposes that the Brothers reorganize themselves internally and find ways to distance themselves from more radical factions, and that they promote inclusive policies toward vulnerable groups and social minorities.	这有一个前提：穆斯林兄弟会实现内部重组并找到办法与走极端路线的派系保持距离，并对脆弱群体和社会少数派推行包容性政策。


For now, the Brothers have announced that they will name a Christian and a woman as Vice Presidents.	眼下，穆斯林兄弟会已宣布将提名一位基督教徒和一位女性担任副总统。


Obviously, that represents an encouraging first step in bridging Egypt’s divides.	显然，这是弥合埃及社会分歧的令人鼓舞的第一步。


But, just as obviously, it is only a first step.	但是，同样显然的是，这只是第一步。


Securing a Sustainable Future	确保可持续的未来


LONDON – When Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels wrote that “All that is solid melts into air,” they intended it as a metaphor for the disruptive transformations that the Industrial Revolution implied for established social norms.	伦敦——当卡尔·马克思和弗里德里希·恩格斯写道“所有固体都融化成空气”时，他们的本意是就工业革命对固定社会规则的颠覆性转变打个比方。


Today, their words can be taken literally: Carbon-dioxide emissions and other industrial pollutants released into the atmosphere are changing the planet – with huge implications for the environment, health, population movements, and social justice.	今天，他们的比方真的变成了现实：释放到大气中的二氧化碳和其他工业污染物正在改变这个星球——对环境、健康、人口流动和社会正义造成了巨大的影响。


The world is at a crossroads, and much of the progress we have made in these areas could vanish into thin air.	世界正来到十字路口，我们在上述领域所取得的进步可能会不知去向。


In 2007, Nelson Mandela founded The Elders to address just such risks, mandating this independent group of former leaders to “speak truth unto power.”	2007，曼德拉成立长者会来化解上述风险，要求这一由前领导人组成的独立团体“向当权者说真话。


That is what we will do at the launch of the new Sustainable Development Goals at the United Nations General Assembly later this month.	”这恰恰是本月晚些时候联合国大会启动新的可持续发展目标时我们的任务。


The SDGs will succeed the Millennium Development Goals, which guided international development efforts from 2000-2015.	可持续发展目标将接替从2000-2015年指导国际发展工作的千年发展目标。


The MDGs helped millions of people escape illiteracy, disease, and hunger, and placed development at the heart of the global political agenda.	千年发展目标协助数百万人摆脱了文盲、疾病和饥饿，并使发展成为全球政治议程的核心议题。


However, their overall impact was often inadequate, particularly in fragile, conflict-ridden states – and they failed to include sustainability in their targets.	但其总体影响力还远远不够，特别是在冲突缠身的脆弱国家——而且他们并未将可持续发展写入目标。


The SDGs represent a quantum leap forward, because they recognize the vital links among challenges – including poverty in all its forms, gender inequality, climate change, and poor governance – that must be addressed in tandem.	可持续发展目标代表着巨大的飞跃，因为它们认识到需要协同解决的多重挑战——包括一切形式的贫困、性别不平等、气候变化和贫困治理——之间有着重要的联系。


Seventeen separate goals may seem unwieldy, but their cumulative effect should mean that no topic or constituency falls through the cracks.	17项独立目标可能看似笨重，但其累积效应应该意味着没有漏掉任何议题和选区。


Sustainability is finally being integrated into global development, in line with what campaigners have been demanding for decades.	可持续发展按照社会人士数十年来的要求最终被纳入到全球发展议题。


As former leaders from the global North and South, respectively, we are particularly pleased that the SDGs will apply to all UN member states and not just those in the developing world.	作为全球南北世界曾经的领导者，我们特别高兴可持续发展目标将适用于所有联合国成员而不仅是发展中世界。


In this way, we hope they will become as “universal” as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights – a vital element of the civic armory in the fight for fairness.	这样，我们希望它们能像为公正而战的公民弹药库的重要元素——世界人权宣言一样“深入普及”。


Implementation and accountability are key.	执行和问责才是关键。


Fine words are not enough; leaders must commit to putting them into action, and civil society must be vigilant in tracking progress and blowing the whistle when not enough is being done.	美好的承诺远远不够，领导者必须承诺付诸行动，民间社会必须提高警惕跟踪进展和指出不足。


Too often, summit declarations have melted into air once the delegations went home and short-term political calculus regained the upper hand.	通常，首脑会议声明在代表回国后就烟消云散，短期的政治计算又重新占据上风。


This time, the stakes are too high.	这次，涉及的代价太过昂贵。


The decisions taken this year, at the SDG summit and at the climate conference in Paris in December, will have a lasting impact on our planet’s future.	今年可持续发展峰会和12月巴黎气候会议做出的决策将持续影响地球的未来。


A stable climate underpins prosperity, poverty reduction, and the rule of law.	气候稳定是繁荣、脱贫与法治的基础。


If world leaders in Paris do not agree to credible measures to keep a rise in temperatures to below two degrees Celsius, the SDGs will not be realized.	如果世界领导人在巴黎未能就将温度升高控制在两摄氏度以内的可靠措施达成一致，可持续发展目标将无法变为现实。


We do not face a choice between reducing poverty and addressing climate change, as the fossil-fuel companies maintain.	与化石燃料公司所说的不同，我们不必在脱贫和解决气候变化之间做选择题。


Indeed, the dangerous effects of climate change threaten to undo the development gains that the MDGs helped to achieve.	事实上，气候变化的危险影响有可能对千年发展目标取得的成果造成威胁。


We risk a world of suffocating heat waves, severe droughts, disastrous floods, and devastating wildfires.	我们有可能面对令人窒息的热浪、严重旱灾、灾难性水患和毁灭性森林大火的威胁。


Entire regions could experience catastrophic declines in food production.	整个地区粮食生产有可能急剧下降。


Sea levels could rise, drowning major cities and small island states.	海平面上升，淹没主要城市和岛国。


Large populations would be displaced, exacerbating existing economic strains and social tensions.	大量人口将流离失所，从而加剧现有的经济紧张和社会压力。


At the same time, there is an emerging consensus – among grassroots organizations and central bankers alike – that inequality poses a serious threat to people’s livelihoods and prosperity worldwide.	同时，基层组织与核心央行之间越来越就不平等严重威胁全世界民众生计和繁荣达成共识。


Globalization has led to a weakening of social contracts within nation-states and regional blocs and even among continents.	全球化削弱了民族国家、地区集团甚至是各大洲间的社会契约。


The answer to inequality cannot be to build walls, hoard wealth, and stigmatize the poor and vulnerable.	不平等的解决方法绝非修筑城墙、囤积财富和污蔑穷人及弱势群体。


Sustainable prosperity requires that all groups within a society share equitably in the benefits of economic growth – especially as our societies become ever more interdependent.	可持续繁荣需要一切社会团体公平分享经济增长成果——特别当我们的社会相互依存度越来越高。


For this reason, we are particularly encouraged by Goal 10 of the SDGs, with its commitment to reducing inequality within and among countries, as well as the focus on gender equality throughout the goals.	因此我们对可持续发展目标中的第十项感到欢欣鼓舞，因为它承诺缓解国内和国家间不平等，而且所有目标都关注性别平等问题。


We know that any framework or process will have its limitations.	我们知道任何框架或程序都有其局限性。


International summits are too often conducted in a way that is remote and alienating for people outside the conference hall.	国际峰会对会场外的民众一向显得遥远而陌生。


Back in the 1980s, the UN commissioned what became known as the Brundtland Report to address mounting global concern about damaging environmental, social, and economic trends.	早在20世纪80年代，联合国委托撰写的所谓布伦特兰报告意在解决全球民众对破坏性环境、社会、经济趋势越来越深切的忧虑。


The report defined the concept of “sustainable development” and called for radical change.	该报告定义了“可持续发展”的概念，并呼吁进行彻底变革。


It warned that, “Unless we are able to translate our words into a language that can reach the minds and hearts of people young and old, we shall not be able to undertake the extensive social changes needed to correct the course of development.”	报告警告“除非我们能把自己的话翻译成青年人和老年人都能理解的语言，否则将无法推进修正发展道路所需的大范围社会变革。 ”


Sustainable growth and development policies cannot be imposed by diktat; they must be designed and implemented in a way that heeds the views and experiences of ordinary citizens.	可持续增长和发展政策不能依靠强制命令； 它们的设计和落实必须听取普通民众的意见和声音。


To implement the SDGs and minimize climate change, massive shifts will be required to move away from our fossil-fuel-driven economic model.	要想落实可持续发展目标、尽可能控制气候变化，需要推行旨在远离化石燃料驱动经济模式的大规模改革。


Public understanding and consent will be crucial.	公众的理解和赞同将至关重要。


World leaders must have the courage to take bold decisions, explain their necessity, and implement them in a just and effective way.	世界领导人必须有勇气大胆决策，说明改革的必要性并以公正和有效的方式加以落实。


They have no right to deny a decent future to our grandchildren.	他们无权剥夺子孙后代的美好未来。


It is no longer a question of choices, but an obligation to prevent catastrophe.	这已不再是选择题，而是必须防止灾难的发生。


The time for action is now.	现在就要采取行动。


We must not allow this opportunity to melt away.	我们决不能放过这次机会。


The Electronic Money Revolution	电子货币革命


Most journalistic accounts of the new forms of electronic money misleadingly spin the story as the emergence of yet another convenience for the technologically pampered.	有关新形式电子货币的多数新闻报导错误地将其描绘成科技发烧友的新宠。


So what if we can pull out a "smart card" rather than carry coins?	那么，如果随身携带"智能卡"而不是硬币，会给人们的生活带来哪些变化？


Big deal.	变化实在太大了。


These new forms of money sound like power windows on cars, or remote control for TV sets.	新形式的货币听上去就像汽车的电动车窗，或是电视的遥控装置。


Maybe we'd be better off without these gadgets.	没有这些玩意儿可能对我们更好。


But media coverage has failed to look far enough into the future, and to comprehend the full extent of the changes that will be wrought by new forms of electronic money, as people and businesses invent new ways of doing business.	但这样的媒体报导不够高瞻远瞩，未能全面理解人们和企业创造新业务方式的过程中，伴随着新形式电子货币变化的所有内涵。


Electronic money is not a channel changer: as it develops, it will help transform the world economy.	电子货币绝不仅仅是付款渠道的改变：随着它的发展，它将有助于重塑整个世界经济。


Two benefits of electronic money stand out, and will likely contribute to its growth.	如果两种主要作用充分发挥，可能会对电子货币的发展有所帮助。


Most important, it will have profound intellectual benefits by creating incentives for the active pursuit of ideas.	最重要的是，电子货币将通过激励主动创意对人们的思想产生深远的影响。


Second, electronic money will advance globalization , expanding the scope and versatility of the Internet and making it easier for people to interact constructively with others around the world.	其二，电子货币将推动全球化，扩大互联网的范围和适应性，从而让人们能与世界各地更加简捷有效地沟通。


Taken together, these two benefits will enable millions of minds to work together far more effectively than ever before.	如果能把这两种作用结合在一起，就能让成百上千万人以前所未有的效率共同合作。


To understand electronic money's potential significance, consider the invention of coins, the first form of true money, in Lydia (now Turkey) in the seventh century BC and, independently, in China.	为了对电子货币的潜在意义加深理解，只要看一看真正货币的最初形式¾硬币的发明。 公元前7世纪，人类最早的货币诞生于小亚细亚古国吕底亚（位于现在的土耳其境内），几乎与此同时，中国也出现了最早的货币。


This was an important advance, and thus one that spread quickly.	这是一项伟大的进步，因而以极快的速度得以传播。


The reason is straightforward.	原因非常明了。


Before the invention of coins, commerce depended on precious metals.	硬币发明前，商业活动完全依赖贵重金属。


But the amounts had to be cut to the size of the transaction and weighed out with balance scales.	但必须按交易额对金属进行切割，再称出精确的分量。


People had to carry the scales, accompanying weights, and sometimes even tools to cut the metal, just to be able to transact.	人们不得不随身携带天平、合适数量的贵金属、有时甚至还要携带切割金属的工具，而所有这一切仅仅是为了完成交易。


Archeologists still find elaborate (and probably expensive in those days) two-pan balance scales and weights on sunken bronze-age merchant ships.	考古学家还在铜器时代沉没的商船上出土了精巧（当时也许还很昂贵）的两盘天平以及砝码。


Most people didn't have them.	这在当时还并不普遍。


Another difficulty with using undifferentiated precious metals for exchange was that some trust or expertise was required to assure people that the metal was pure.	使用无差别贵金属交易的另一难题是：人们要依赖一定程度的信任或专业知识，才能确定交易金属的纯度。


The same problem occurred with other commodities that people tried to use for exchange, such as gems or shells; their value was too uncertain.	人们用作交易的其它商品，如宝石或贝壳等，也存在同样的问题。 交易商品的价值太不固定。


As a result of these obstacles, it was hard to carry out small transactions before the invention of standardized and identical coins, and trade must have been largely confined to big deals between major parties.	所有这些障碍的后果是，发明标准化的通用硬币之前，小规模交易面临着重重困难。 绝大多数贸易仅限于主要合作方的大型交易。


With the introduction of coins, it became possible to develop many new kinds of business.	随着硬币的出现，发展很多新形式贸易成为了可能。


One could easily establish and operate a business selling food by the serving or providing small household items to anyone who happened to pass by.	人们可以很容易地创办并经营小本生意，向碰巧过路的人推销食品或小件家居用品。


But, most importantly, the invention of coins greatly enhanced the spread of knowledge.	但最重要的是，发明硬币大大促进了知识的传播。


After the invention of coins, it became easy to sell books, lessons, and instructions.	硬币出现后，书籍、课程和教材的销售变得更加容易。


The development of coins is part of the reason that both the classical world around ancient Lydia and China in the Han Dynasty were so advanced compared to other parts of the world.	发明硬币是古吕底亚社会和中国汉朝比当时世界的其它地方先进很多的原因。


The lesson is that the magnitude of transaction costs and contracting costs ultimately determine much of an economy's structure.	从中，我们汲取到这样的经验：交易和合同成本的大小最终能够在很大程度上决定经济的结构。


As new forms of money reduce these costs, the richness and complexity of our economy will be increased.	随着新形式货币降低了上述成本，经济行为的多样性和复杂性都会大大上升。


Lower transaction costs mean that exchange can be dramatically more fine-grained.	交易成本的下降意味着交换活动会更加细致。


With the latest forms of electronic money we can sell millions of little things, to millions of different people all over the world. Nowhere is this more important than in the realm of ideas.	有了新形式的电子货币，我们就能面对世界各地成百上千万的不同人群，销售价值成百上千万的小件商品，而这在任何领域的重要性都不能与知识产权领域相提并论。


Credit card companies now routinely charge the firms accepting credit card payments US$0.25 plus between two and three percent of the amount transferred per payment.	信用卡公司目前对接受信用卡付款企业的常规收费是每次交易0. 25美元，再加上转帐金额的百分之二到百分之三。


This fee structure makes it difficult to run a business selling items for less than ten dollars, and impossible to run a business selling items for less than one dollar: transaction costs eat up the profits.	这样的费用结构使经营10美元以下产品销售的企业面临很多困难，而销售1美元以下商品的可能性更是微乎其微：交易费用侵蚀了大部分利润。


Through superior payments software, micropayments companies like Paypal (founded in 1998), Yaga (founded in 2000), Peppercoin (founded in 2001) and BitPass (founded in 2002) are able to offer much lower transaction costs than credit card companies, greatly expanding the number of transactions.	依靠高级支付软件，像Paypal（1998年创办）、Yaga（2000年创办）、Peppercoin（2001年创办）和BitPass（2002年创办）这样的小额付款公司能够提供比信用卡公司低得多的交易成本，从而大大增加了交易数量。


A company can now charge people less than a dollar for a service (such as viewing a web page), and get significant returns by high volume.	公司现在可以收取不到1美元的服务费用（比如查看网页），并通过大量交易获得巨额利润。


There are skeptics who say that the public is resistant to buying digital content, because people are accustomed to getting it for free.	怀疑论者认为公众不愿购买数字产品，因为他们已经习惯于免费获得。


That is what people used to say years ago about cable TV.	若干年前，人们也曾这样谈论过有线电视。


Excellent TV programming is not given away for free. Neither are other substantial intellectual creations.	精彩的电视节目不是免费观看的，其它实质上的精神产品也同样如此。


These skeptics overlook the profound changes that new technologies gradually make in our habits as we discover their possibilities.	但上述怀疑论者忽视了随着人们对美好前景的逐渐认识，新技术对传统习惯会产生意义深远的改变作用。


Already, we have seen the success of Apple's iTunes, which sells music for US$0.99 per song.	我们已经亲眼目睹了苹果线上音乐（Apple's iTunes）的巨大成功，在那里，每首歌曲的定价只有0.


Created in 2003, the iTunes Music Store recently surpassed its 100 millionth sale.	99美元。 2003年创办以来，线上音乐店不久前已经完成了超过1亿次的销售。


That is certainly high volume.	这样的销量无疑是巨大的。


What iTunes sells is one form of intellectual content. Other forms will follow.	线上音乐销售的只是知识产品的一种形式，其它的形式也会接踵而来。


It will be exciting to see what new forms of intellectual content are invented in coming years and decades.	目睹随后几年甚至几十年内知识产品领域的发明创造会令人怦然心动。


The economic revolution - both online and offline - that will be triggered as we learn how to use electronic money may be as profound as that wrought by our ancient ancestors' invention of coins.	无论在线还是离线，随着我们逐渐掌握电子货币的使用，随之而来的经济变革也许比古代先人发明硬币还要意义深远。


The Elephant’s Choices	大象的选择


New Delhi – A month after they first queued to vote in India’s mammoth general election, the country’s voters will learn the outcome on May 16.	新德里——经过漫长的长达一个月的投票，印度马拉松式的大选将在5月16日得出结果。


The election, staggered over five phases – involving five polling days over four weeks, rather than one “election day” – will determine who rules the world’s largest democracy.	整个选举持续5个阶段——在四周之内，经过5个，而不是1个“投票日”的等待——最终将决定谁将统治这个世界上最大的民主国家。


Only one thing is certain: no single party will win a majority on its own. India is set for more coalition rule.	看来，目前只有一件事情是确定的：没有一个单一政党会取得大多数的选票，印度还是在一个联合政府的统治之下。


That may not be a bad thing.	当然，这并不是一件坏事情。


India’s last two governments each served a full term and presided over significant economic growth, even though they comprised 23 and 20 parties, respectively.	印度的上两届政府也是分别由23和30个政党组成，他们不仅完成了任期，而且在经济上还取得了不菲的成绩。


Coalition politics gives representation to the myriad interests that make up a diverse and complex society, and ensures that the country as a whole accepts the policies ultimately adopted.	在一个多元而复杂的社会里，联合政府可以代表不同的利益团体，使得国家的各方面决策得到大多数人的拥护。


But coalition rule can also often mean governance of the lowest common denominator, as resistance by any of the government’s significant members to a policy can delay or even thwart it.	联合政府的缺点是很难达成一致意见，来自政府内外反对的声音往往会使得政策延迟推出，甚至破产。


In India’s parliamentary system, if a coalition loses its majority, the government falls, and keeping allies together can sometimes prove a greater priority than getting things done.	在印度这种议会政治的体制中，如果一个联盟在议会中失去了大多数的席位，政府就会下台。 所以说，有的时候，为了保持联盟的团结，宁愿不做什么事情。


India’s national elections are really an aggregate of thirty different state elections, each influenced by its own local considerations, regional political currents, and different patterns of political incumbency.	印度的全国大选实际上有点类似于30个州选举的总和。 每一个州都受到自己地方势力的影响，地区政治的考量和不同政体的组成模式等也会起到一定的作用。


Soon after May 16, the largest single party that emerges will seek to construct a coalition out of a diverse array of victors from the various states.	在5月16日大选结束以后，获得选票最多的政党将会在不同的州寻求获胜的政治联盟联合组阁。


Several outcomes are possible.	选举的结果有多种可能性。


The most likely is that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Indian National Congress, currently leading the government, emerges once again as the largest single party and assembles a new ruling coalition.	最有可能出现的结果是印度现任总理辛格领导的印度国大党再次当选，组成新的执政联盟。


The main alternative would be majority alliance put together by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by the 82-year-old Lal Krishna Advani.	另一种可能是由82岁的拉尔・阿德瓦尼领导的印度人民党的政治联盟获胜。


But there is a third possibility: a motley collection of regional parties, together with the Communists, gets enough seats to prevent either of the two big parties from forming a government.	当然也有第三种可能性存在：地区政党的联盟加上共产党人的支持，如果能够获得足够多的选票，以此来抗衡以上的两个大党。


In that case, a “hung parliament” could see a “third front” coming to power as a minority government, supported tactically by one of the big parties.	如果这种情况真的发生的话，就会出现一个无任何党派占明显多数的议会，一个由少数派执政的一个政府，称为“第三阵线”，有可能得到某个大党口头上的支持。


This has happened before – and each time, the government that resulted fell within a year.	这种情况以前也发生过——但每次的结局都是政府在一年之内就下台。


Each alternative could have serious implications for India.	上述三种组阁形式会对印度产生不同的影响。


Though the big parties are broadly committed to continuing an economic policy of liberalization and growth, the BJP is mostly focused on the well-being of India’s merchant class, whereas Congress wishes to redistribute enhanced government revenues to the poor through generous social programs.	对于大党组阁政治来说，他们的政策走向主要是延续以往的改革，实行经济自由化，促进发展的政策。 印度人民党主要代表着印度商贾阶层有钱人的利益。


The left, which would strongly influence any “third front” government, are staunchly opposed to economic liberalization and wish to strengthen, rather than dilute, India’s large public sector.	而国大党主要是通过社会改革计划，倾向于将财富分配给一般的穷人。 而最后一种组阁方式，也就是被称为“第三阵线”政府，他们强烈反对经济的自由化，主张加强，而不是分化国有企业的力量。


In foreign policy, India’s growing closeness with the United States under both the BJP and the Congress has proved controversial at home, with leftist parties threatening to scrap the Indo-US nuclear deal and break defense ties with Israel if they come to power.	在对外政策方面，人民党和国大党的亲美政策在国内遭到广泛的质疑。 左派政党扬言，一旦他们获取政权，他们就会撕毁印美核协定，解除和以色列的防务协议。


Should the regional parties dominate the government, domestic politics would strongly impact India’s foreign policy: the anger of Tamil voters over events in Sri Lanka, or of Muslims over Gaza, would be reflected in the government and therefore constrain policy options.	如果地区政党掌握了政权，印度国内的政策将会大大地影响到印度的外交政策。 泰米尔对斯里兰卡政权的反抗，以及穆斯林在加沙的境遇等问题，都会对印度的政治有所影响，从而影响到他的对外政策走向。


The BJP has promised a more hawkish security posture than Congress in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, but when it was in power it conducted itself remarkably similarly to its rival, initiating a peace process with Pakistan.	在孟买恐怖袭击之后，相比于国大党来说，人民党表示他将采取更为激进的防卫措施。 但人民党在台上的时候，他的政策和国大党没什么区别，并且启动了和巴基斯坦新一轮的和谈。


The biggest differences among the various groupings consist in the tone and tenor of their respective visions of India.	三个政治派别最大的不同在于他们是不同的阶层的代言人和传声筒。


Congress remains a “big tent” party, committed to preserving India’s pluralism and conscious of the multiple identities and interests of India’s many peoples.	国大党是一个“大帐篷”政党，代表了印度大多数和多种利益阶层。


The BJP, which accuses Congress of “appeasing” India’s minorities, hews to a staunchly Hindu-chauvinist line, and has received support from some of the most bigoted and intolerant sections of Indian society.	人民党批评国大党“讨好”印度的少数民族，顽固坚持印度爱国联盟阵线，人民党受到印度社会一些顽固偏执势力的支持。


The “third front” involves assorted petty particularisms – parties representing the sectarian interests of specific castes, sub-regions, or linguistic groups.	“第三阵线”相对来说有点特殊——他代表了某些特别种族，地区以及不同语言团体的利益。


The danger is that such groups could accentuate the divisions of a fractious society, rather than pull everyone together in the collective national interest.	不过这些团体容易分裂，而不是团结印度最大多数的社会力量。


That would be a startling change from five years ago.	5年前印度政局出现了令人震惊的改变。


The 2004 elections were won by the Congress party, led by a woman political leader of Roman Catholic faith and Italian descent (Sonia Gandhi), who made way for a Sikh prime minister (Manmohan Singh) to be sworn by a Muslim (President Abdul Kalam) in a country that is 81% Hindu.	04年的政权落入了一名女性政治家索尼娅·甘地之手，她是意大利后裔，信奉罗马天主教。 她的内阁总理辛格是西克教徒，而总统阿卜杜勒·卡拉姆则是一个穆斯林。


That single moment captured much of what elections have meant for this diverse democracy.	印度人口的主体是印度教派，占整个人口的81%。 这或许是印度多元民主政治的产物。


But the ultimate reality will remain that of a coalition government trying to make progress in a contentious polity.	然后，最终的现实是执政联盟必须保持政策的连续性。


In India, policy changes require political consensus within the ruling coalition, labor laws are strongly defended by unions and political parties, and controversial decisions can be challenged on the streets, in the courts, and ultimately at the polls.	在印度，只有执政联盟同意，政策才能得到改变，劳工法的修订一直受到工会势力和一些政党的反对。 一旦政见不同，人们就会走上街头，诉诸法院或是最终以选票的方式表达诉求。


Necessary policy reforms advocated by a ruling party are often held hostage to the prejudices of its allies.	由执政党推出的方案往往受到其联盟伙伴的政治绑架，最终不能得以推行。


So change comes slowly. But it does come, and once a policy consensus has been established, it tends to be durable.	所以说，改变是缓慢的，但确实变化也在一点一点的发生。


Indian democracy has often been likened to the stately progress of the elephant – ponderous in its gait and reluctant to change course, but not easily swayed from its new path when it does.	一旦政策达成了共识，往往能够持久。 印度的民主往往被比喻成庄严的大象——行动缓慢，不愿意作出改变，但一旦决定新的方法，不会轻易产生动摇。


The elephant of Indian democracy will acquire a new set of mahouts before the month’s end.	印度大象式的民主看来要到本月底才知道真正的象夫是谁。


Who they are will have a major impact on the fortunes and prospects of one-sixth of humanity. That alone makes the election results due on May 16 worth the world’s attention.	谁将是掌管占世界上六分之一人民的未来和福址，世界的目光已投向了5月16日，这个投票选举的日子。


The Elixir of Education?	教育的万灵药？


Many people see education as a cure-all.	许多人把教育看成是一剂万灵药。


They believe that societies can be transformed by pouring money into raising educational standards.	他们相信通过注入金钱提高教育水准，就可以使社会发生转变。


But, while it is right to believe in the power of education – indeed, many scholars are convinced that it creates healthier, more prosperous citizens – such enthusiasm doesn’t tell us how to get more children to stay in school longer, or how to ensure that they learn useful skills while they are there.	但是，尽管相信教育的力量是正确的——事实上，许多学者认为它能够创造出更健康、也更成功的公民，这种热忱并没有告诉我们怎样才能使更多的孩子更久地呆在学校里，或者怎样确保他们在学校里能学到有用的技能。


Today, virtually every Latin American and Caribbean child enrolls in primary school, and most complete several years of secondary education – remarkable progress compared to a half-century ago.	今天，实际上每个拉丁美洲和加勒比的孩子都上小学，并且绝大部分孩子会完成几年的中学教育，与半个世纪以前相比这是一个令人瞩目的进步。


Yet Latin American and Caribbean children gain fewer skills in each year of school than students do in high-income countries – and even in some other developing countries.	然而拉丁美洲和加勒比的孩子每一年在学校里获得的技能比那些高收入国家甚至一些发展中国家的学生要少得多。


Indigenous children have a significantly lower chance of educational success.	当地的孩子获得教育成功的机会非常之小。


Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Paraguay lag behind even other Latin American countries.	危地马拉、海地、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜和巴拉圭相比其他拉丁美洲国家更为落后。


Despite the widespread enthusiasm for lifting educational performance in Latin America and the Caribbean, little effort has been devoted to working out how to maximize investments in education.	尽管各国都有热情要提高拉丁美洲和加勒比的教育水平，但是却很少有人去思考怎样使教育投资最大化的问题。


Which policies work best?	哪些政策是最好的呢？


There are myriad options.	这里有无数的选择。


The World Bank recommends decentralizing school administration and decision-making so that schools are more responsive to local needs.	世界银行建议在教育管理和决策上下放权力，以便使学校能更好地响应当地的需求。


But no reliable studies have established this strategy’s effectiveness.	但是有关这一策略的有效性却没有进行过值得信赖的研究。


Bilingual education is another suggestion that requires further research if we are to establish the benefits.	至于另一个有关进行双语教学的建议，如果我们要确定其益处，还需作进一步的研究。


Research in Africa suggests that giving de-worming medicine to primary school pupils reduces the prevalence of health problems that lower children’s concentration and attendance.	在非洲进行的研究表明给小学生服用去除蠕虫的药物能够减少导致孩子注意力和出勤率下降的盛行的健康问题。


A program to provide teachers with monetary incentives and professional training was recently established in Mexico, but research conducted to date has found no significant impact on educational outcomes.	一项给教师提供金钱激励和专业培训的计划最近在墨西哥实施，但是迄今为止所进行的研究并没有显示这对教育成果有何重要影响。


Clearly, there is a deficit of useful information and serious scientific research in this field.	显然，在这一领域缺乏有用的信息和严肃的科学研究。


However, three options should be promoted.	然而，有三种选择还是应该提倡的。


First, there is credible evidence that children who are better nourished in their first years of life stay in school longer and learn more each year that they remain there.	第一，有可信的证据表明在他们生命的最初几年获得良好营养的孩子会在学校里呆得更久、学到的技能也更多。


This was first demonstrated in the 1960’s, when Guatemalan researchers gave children in two randomly selected villages a nutritious porridge each day, and a much less nutritious fruit drink to children in two other villages.	这是在二十世纪六十年代时最早提出来的，当时危地马拉的研究人员每天给两个随机选择的村庄的孩子喝一杯富有营养的麦片粥，而给另两个村庄的孩子喝营养低得多的果汁。


More recently, Bolivia launched the Proyecto Integral de Desarrollo Infantil (PIDI), which gave low-income urban children food and extra educational activities.	最近，玻利维亚实施的Proyecto Integral de Desarrollo Infanti（PIDI）计划向低收入的农村孩子提供食物和额外的教育活动。


This policy can be very affordable: providing porridge in Guatemala cost just $23.25 per child per year, while the monetary value of the increase in the children’s future wages is between two and four times higher.	这种政策是完全能够负担得起的：危地马拉提供麦片粥的费用只有每个孩子每年23. 25美元，而孩子们未来能获得的工资在金钱上会提高二到四倍。


A second option is Conditional Cash Transfer Programs, which provide cash payments to poor households whose children attend school regularly.	第二种选择是有条件现金转移计划，它向孩子正常上学的贫困家庭支付现金。


These programs have been shown to increase enrollment and attendance.	这些计划被显示能够提高入学率和出勤率。


Families in some rural communities of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico get monthly cash payments if their children’s school attendance rates are 85% or higher.	位于洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜和墨西哥某些农村地区的家庭如果他们孩子的学校的出勤率达到或高于85%，每个月就可以获得现金付款。


In Nicaragua, these programs have increased school enrollment rates by about 13 percentage points.	在尼加拉瓜，这些计划让学校的入学率提高了大约13个百分点。


However, such incentives do not address the problem of low-quality education, and research shows that the benefits do not always outweigh the costs.	然而，这种激励措施并没有解决教育质量低的问题，并且研究表明其利益并不总是超出成本。


Policymakers may choose instead to follow the example of Chile and Colombia, which give students government money to pay for private education.	政策制定者也许会转而选择智利和哥伦比亚的模式，那里的政府出钱给接受私人教育的学生。


In Colombia, scholarships were provided to 125,000 students from poor, urban communities in the early 1990’s.	哥伦比亚在二十世纪九十年代的早期向来自贫困和农村地区的125000名学生提供奖学金。


Where demand exceeded supply, private education “voucher” recipients were selected by lottery.	在供大于求的地区，通过抽签来选择一些学生接受私人教育的“教学补助金券”。


Each voucher cost the Colombian government $24 a year more than its previous education spending per student, but the vouchers increased attendance rates and test scores.	哥伦比亚政府为每张教学补助金券支出的费用比它原先在每位学生身上的花费每年多出24美元，但是教学补助金券提高了孩子上学的出勤率和学习成绩。


It is estimated that children in the program increased their future incomes by $300 per year.	据估计接受该计划的孩子未来的收入每年可以增加300美元。


With the benefits exceeding the costs by between 10 and 25 times, this seems to be a sound option.	这项计划的获益是成本的10到25倍，因此看上去这是一个很好的选择。


Yet an analysis of Chile’s voucher program found no positive effect on students’ test scores or years in school.	然而对智利教学补助金券计划进行的一项分析却没有发现对学生的考试成绩或入学的年份有何积极的作用。


Instead, the program’s main effect seems to have been to encourage the best students in public schools to switch to private schools.	相反，这项计划的主要作用似乎是鼓励在公共学校上学的优秀学生转到私人学校去。


Investing in education is vital for Latin America and the Caribbean.	教育投资对于拉丁美洲和加勒比极其重要。


But much remains unknown.	但是这里面还有很多问题我们并不清楚。


Many policy options unravel when examined closely; others show promise but require more study.	许多政策选择在被仔细研究后表明并不有效； 另一些看上去不错，但是还有待进一步研究。


The most expensive programs aren’t necessarily the most successful.	花费最高的计划并不一定是最成功的。


Merely waxing lyrical about the benefits of education will do nothing to help Latin American and Caribbean countries catch up with developed countries.	仅仅对教育的利益唱赞歌丝毫无助于帮助拉丁美洲和加勒比国家赶上发达国家。


Instead, governments and international organizations should support education policies that have been shown to be effective, encourage research and evaluation of other types of education policies and programs, and back non-education policies and programs that improve the quality of life in developing countries.	政府和国际组织应该做的是支持被显示有效的教育政策，鼓励研究和评估其他类型的教育政策和计划，以及支持提高发展中国家生活质量的非教育政策和计划。


Emerging World Rising	新兴世界的崛起


LONDON – Now that the leadership issues in the United States and China have been settled, we can finally frame the economic outlook for 2013 with the knowledge of who will be pulling the policy levers in the world’s two biggest economies.	发自伦敦——随着美中两国领导人人选尘埃落定，在知晓谁将掌控全球前两大经济体的政策杠杆之后，我们终于可以开始勾勒出2013年的经济前景。


So, what will they do – and, perhaps more important, what will economic forces do to them?	那么，他们会有何作为——或者更重要的是，经济力量会对他们产生什何种影响？


For starters, the US will face recurring challenges with the “fiscal cliff” until financial markets pressure policymakers into more radical deficit reduction.	首先，美国将面临着“财政悬崖”所带来的反复挑战，直至金融市场迫使决策者实施更激进的削减赤字政策。


But, despite this and associated growth disappointments, 2013 will be a stronger year for the global economy than many people expect.	尽管存在这一挑战以及随之而来令人失望的增长幅度，但对全球经济来说2013年将会是一个超出许多人预期的强劲增长年。


In 2011, China contributed $1.3 trillion in additional GDP to the world, the equivalent of creating another Greece every 12.5 weeks, or close to another Spain every year.	2011年，中国为世界贡献了1. 3万亿美元的GDP增长，相当于每12周半创造出一个希腊，或是每年创造出一个西班牙。


Together, the four BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) contributed around $2.2 trillion in 2012, equivalent to another Italy every year.	金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度及中国）合共在2012年贡献了约2. 2万亿美元，相当于一年一个意大利。


(Despite its problems, Italy is still the world’s eighth-largest economy, and will be for at least the next couple of years, until Russia and India possibly overtake it).	（虽然本身存在问题，但意大利依然是世界第八大经济体，至少在未来几年被俄罗斯或印度赶超之前还是如此。 ）


The eight growth market economies – the BRICs plus South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey – created close to $3 trillion in 2011, more than the United Kingdom in one year.	这八个增长市场经济体——金砖四国加上韩国、印尼、墨西哥和土耳其——2011年创造了将近3万亿美元，超过了英国的经济规模。


These economies’ combined size is now approximately that of the US economy, with total annual output reaching $15-16 trillion, or roughly 25% of global GDP.	这些经济体的总体规模与美国相近，其年度产出达到15~16万亿美元，或者说约占全球GDP的25%。


Unless their growth rates slow sharply, their contribution to world output will rise dramatically, and global growth will be stronger than worried Western analysts might appreciate.	除非这些国家的经济增长率大幅度放缓，不然它们对世界经济产量的贡献将显著上升，而全球经济的增长将比忧心忡忡的西方分析家们估计的更高。


If the “Growth Eight” economies expanded by 10% on average in US dollar terms, they would add $1.5 trillion to global GDP next year.	如果这“八大增长国”能以美元计平均扩张10%，那么来年它们将会令全球GDP增加1. 5万亿美元。


For the decade that began in 2011, we at Goldman Sachs Asset Management have assumed that China, which accounts for about half of total Growth Eight output (probably $8.3 trillion by the end of 2012), will grow at a 7-8% annual rate in real terms, with inflation around 3%.	对于2011年起往后的十年，高盛资产管理公司预计中国——该国约占了八大增长国总产出的一半（到2012年底约有8. 3万亿美元）——将会以7-8%的实际年增长率增长，其通货膨胀约为3%。


Unless the renminbi falls in value, this translates into an average nominal increase of at least 10-11% in dollar terms.	除非人民币贬值，否则这意味着以美元计算至少10-11%的名义年增长率。


China will grow by 7-8% partly because that is what policymakers have decided they want.	而中国之所以会以7-8%的速度增长，在一定程度上来说就是政策制定者所决定的增长率。


In late 2009, within a year of their massive policy stimulus in response to the global credit crisis, the Chinese leadership, I believe, decided that 10% annual real growth had outlived its usefulness.	在2009年年末，在为应对全球信贷危机实施了一整年的大规模政策刺激之后，我相信中国的领导层认为10%的年实际增长率已经是弊大于利了。


Income inequality was rising dramatically, environmental damage was worsening rapidly, and inflation was leading to weak real-income growth for poor households.	收入差距显著上升，环境破坏迅速恶化，而通货膨胀则导致贫困家庭的实际收入停滞不前。


Indeed, a key reason for China’s slowdown in 2011-2012 is that officials wanted it.	的确，中国经济在2011-2012年间减速的关键原因就是官方的意愿。


While the real GDP growth rate stated in the 12th Five-Year Plan should not be viewed as a fait accompli, the fact that the Plan’s growth rate was lowered to 7% is a powerful signal of official intent.	而第十二个五年计划中规定的实际GDP增长率也不应被看作一个既成事实，该计划的增长率被降低到7%其实就是官方意图的有力证明。


Looking ahead, while China’s leadership change is important, the country’s leaders cannot decide things with the freedom that one might think.	展望未来，中国领导层的变化很重要，这个国家的领导并不能像人们以为的那样可以自由决策。


They become leaders partly through commitment to the agreed plan.	他们之所以能成为领导在一定程度上是因为能承诺恪守既定的计划。


A potential leader who deviates too much does not stay in the leadership, as we saw in 2012 with the purge of Bo Xilai.	一个偏离既定计划太多的潜在领导人不可能留在领导层，正如我们在2012年见到的对薄熙来的清洗那样。


China’s 7% growth target, while subject to a number of challenges, is based on maintaining private consumption growth of around 8% (while recognizing that exports and investment will not grow as strongly as before), thereby allowing the consumption share of GDP to rise.	中国7%的增长目标虽然会受到一些挑战，但却是以保持民间消费8%左右的增长（同时意识到出口和投资不会像从前那样强劲增长）为基础的，因而允许GDP中消费所占的份额有所上升。


More focus on innovation and creativity will be accompanied by strong real wage growth, provision of greater rights for urban migrants, and expansion of health care and pensions.	对创新和创造力的更多关注将伴随着大幅实际工资增长，城市移民权利的增加以及医疗和养老覆盖范围的扩大。


If China grows by 7-8% again in 2013, it will be more balanced growth than in 2012.	如果2013年中国经济的增长速度保持在7~8%的话，这将会是比2012年更为平衡的增长。


Beyond China, the other BRICs – Brazil, Russia, and India – all face challenges that their policymakers need to meet to spur stronger growth.	除了中国之外，金砖四国的其他三国——巴西、俄罗斯及印度——都面临着一些挑战，它们的政策制定者需要刺激更强劲的增长。


But there are plenty of exciting developments elsewhere, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Mexico – all part of what I call the “Next 11.”	此外其他地区也有很多令人兴奋的发展，包括印尼，菲律宾、孟加拉、尼日利亚和墨西哥——都属于我称之为“未来十一国（Next 11）”的成员。


South Korea and Turkey, which continue to grow reasonably well, albeit not with the others’ momentum, are two of this group’s other big members.	仍然保持良好增长的韩国和土耳其虽然缺乏其他国家的增长势头，却也属于这个集团的两个大巨头。


The 15 countries that comprise the BRICs and the Next 11 contain more than four billion people, close to two-thirds of the world’s population.	由金砖四国及未来十一国组成的15个国家涵盖了40多亿人口，几乎是世界总人口的三分之二。


As they continue to grow, their share of the world economy will continue to rise, boosting global growth beyond what it otherwise would be.	随着这些国家继续增长，它们占世界经济的比重将持续上升，促进全球经济增长超越自身原本预计的增长幅度。


But the global economy could be weaker in 2013 than it was in 2012 if the worst continues to prevail in Europe and the US, particularly if the new US Congress cannot work with a re-elected President Barack Obama to find a budget deal that improves the medium-term credibility of the US fiscal position while avoiding excessive deficit cutting.	如果欧洲和美国的经济情况继续恶化，2013年全球经济可能会比2012年更弱，尤其是如果美国新国会不能与连任的奥巴马总统合作达成一个可以在避免过度赤字削减的同时提高美国财政状况中期可信度的预算协议的话。


This is a difficult balance to achieve, and, without pressure from the markets, I am unsure how it will play out.	这是一个难以达到的平衡，如果没有市场的压力，我不确定它将如何发挥作用。


I should add, however, that if the US government does not cause problems, two private-sector developments seem likely to be helpful.	然而我也要补充的是，如果美国政府不制造麻烦的话，两个私营部门的发展似乎很可能有所帮助。


One is growing evidence of a housing recovery; the other is the prospect of steadily declining energy-import costs as domestic production, particularly of natural gas, continues to rise.	一个是越来越多的证据表明住宅市场正在复苏； 另一个则是随着国内能源（尤其是天然气）的产量持续上升，能源进口成本稳步下降的前景。


As for Europe, many investors still assume that a moment will arrive when we can definitively conclude that European Monetary Union is finished or saved.	对欧洲来说，许多投资者仍然认为最终会有一个时刻让我们可以明确判定欧洲货币联盟究竟是完蛋了还是被挽救了。


Unfortunately, it is much more likely that, at least ahead of Germany’s autumn 2013 elections, key decisions will be postponed or avoided.	不幸地是，更有可能发生的情况是至少在2013年秋天德国选举前都将推迟或者避免做出关键决策。


This means that Europe probably faces another challenging year.	这意味着欧洲很可能要面对另一个充满挑战的年份。


But, again, the BRICs’ output growth amounts to creating the equivalent of another Italy every 12 months.	但是请让我再一次提到，金砖四国的产出增长相当于每十二个月创造出一个意大利。


Unless the European environment deteriorates sharply, Europe’s travails will not be the main story for the global economy in 2013.	因此除非欧洲的境况急剧恶化，否则欧洲的阵痛将不会是2013年全球经济的焦点。


The Emerging-Market Growth Engine	新兴市场增长引擎


NEW DELHI – The key role of emerging and developing countries – including India, China, and Brazil – in sustaining world economic growth was brought into sharp focus during the recent global crisis, and has been well documented.	发自新德里——新兴发展中国家（包括印度，中国和巴西）在维持世界经济增长中所扮演的关键角色在本次经济危机中显得尤为突出，并将载入史册。


This trend is likely to continue in 2011 and beyond.	而这一趋势将在2011年乃至更远的未来继续延续下去。


Indeed, the IMF expects that emerging and developing economies will grow by 6% in 2010 and 6.3% in 2011.	事实上，国际货币基金组织预测新兴发展中经济体将在2010年取得6%的增长，到2011年则达到6.


Emerging-market economies have not only cushioned the global impact of the recent crisis, but have also helped industrialized countries reverse the recessionary trend of 2008-2009.	3%。 新兴市场经济体不但缓冲了金融危机的全球冲击，还帮助发达国家扭转了2008~2009年的衰退局面。


But recovery remains fragile in the developed world, with unemployment remaining at crisis levels.	然而当前发达国家的复苏依然非常脆弱，失业率也还维持在危机中水平。


But, while emerging economies are proving to be drivers of global demand, the right mix of government initiatives and policies is still required to ensure that they continue to provide the impetus for faster world economic recovery in the short term and be the engines of sustainable growth in the medium and long term.	但当新兴国家成为全球需求的驱动之源时，依然需要将政府的带头作用和相关政策完美地结合起来，以确保它们能继续在短期内为世界经济的迅速复苏提供动力，并成为中长期持续经济增长的引擎。


There is also a strong need for supporting long-term capital flows to emerging economies to stimulate investment further, particularly in their infrastructure sectors, thereby injecting much-needed additional demand into the global economy.	与此同时，我们也迫切需要长期资本流入新兴经济体以进一步刺激投资，尤其是基础设施部门，并以此向全球经济注入急需的额外需求。


In this regard, another important development is the increasing number of emerging-market middle-class consumers, their growing purchasing power, and thus their potential impact on global demand.	在这方面的另一重要进展就是不断膨胀的新兴市场中产阶级消费群，加上该阶层不断提升的消费能力以及因此对全球需求所产生的潜在影响。


According to one estimate, middle-class consumers in a dozen emerging economies today wield annual purchasing power totaling approximately $6.9 trillion.	按照一项研究的估算，如今12个新兴市场国家中产消费者的总购买力已经达到了大约6. 9万亿美元/年。


Indeed, projections from McKinsey & Company suggest that the purchasing power of this rising middle class in emerging markets may rise to $20 trillion over the next decade – twice the current level of consumption in the United States.	而麦肯锡公司则预计这一不断崛起的阶级将在未来十年内实现20万亿美元/年的购买力——这是美国目前全国购买力水平的两倍。


The four biggest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) – are large producers and consumers of goods and services, and will also be important in shaping the pace, direction, and sustainability of global economic growth.	四个最大的新兴经济体——巴西、俄罗斯，印度和中国（金砖四国）——本身既是大生产商，同时也是商品和服务的大宗消费者，并将在很大程度上左右全球经济发展的速度，方向和可持续性。


Let me turn to India specifically. In the five years preceding the 2008-2009 crisis, the Indian economy grew at an average rate of nearly 9% annually.	请让我专门以印度为例，在2008~2009年危机之前那五年，印度经济以平均每年9%的速度增长。


During the crisis, annual growth slowed, but only to 6.7%, reflecting the economy’s inherent resilience.	危机期间年增长率有所降低，但依然保持在6. 7%，显示出印度经济内部的韧性。


The growth rate subsequently recovered to 7.4% in 2009-2010, and we expect 9% growth by 2011-12.	在随后的2009年~2010年增长率又恢复到了7. 4%，并预期在2011~2012年度达到9%。


The strength of the Indian economy is underpinned by a high saving rate and robust investment.	印度经济的力量是构筑在高储蓄率和强劲的投资之上的。


The government’s prompt action to counter the crisis – fiscal stimulus, growth packages, and monetary easing – proved effective.	政府应对危机的果断行动——财政刺激，增长一揽子计划和放松银根——被证明是有效的。


A sound financial and banking system with limited exposure to global markets, together with the importance of domestic consumption in sustaining demand, has also helped.	一个并未向全球市场完全开放的健全金融和银行系统，再加上国内消费在维持需求方面的重要作用也起到了相应的作用。


But what distinguishes India from other emerging economies, in particular China and the Southeast Asian countries, is that domestic demand, rather than exports, is the primary driver of growth.	但真正将印度与其他新兴经济体（尤其是中国和东南亚）区分开来的则是增长的主要动力并非来自出口，而是国内需求。


A return to high growth rates globally will require a broader revival of demand.	全球高增长率的恢复要求需求的大范围复苏。


Needless to say, this will occur only gradually, particularly in the developed countries.	这无疑会是个渐进的过程，尤其是在发达国家。


Thus, India’s high growth rates will have to remain dependent on strong domestic demand.	因此印度的高增长率必须依然依靠强劲的国内需求。


In order to meet this challenge, we are focusing on investments in infrastructure sectors such as power, telecommunications, roads, ports, and airports.	为了应对这一挑战，我们正把焦点集中在电力、通信、道路，港口和机场等基础设施之上。


While the public sector will continue to play an important role, given the massive investment required, substantial private investment – including foreign investment – would be needed to address India’s huge “infrastructure deficit” and the financing gap that accompanies it.	在公共部门继续扮演重要角色的同时，考虑到投资需求的庞大规模，也需要有大量的私人投资——包括外国投资——来解决印度广泛的“基础设施赤字”问题以及相伴而生的财政缺口。


A strategy of private-public partnership has been adopted to address the infrastructure challenge.	一个公私合作的战略将被用来解决的这个基础设施挑战。


At the same time, we need to invest in our human capital, supporting the development and upgrading of the workforce’s skills and capacity for innovation.	与此同时，我们也必须对人力资本进行投资，支持对劳动者技能和创新能力的发展和升级。


At its summit in Seoul in November, the G-20 firmly placed development at the core of its agenda.	在今年（2010年）11月的首尔峰会上，G20集团将发展定为其核心议程。


Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, underlining the importance of infrastructure investment, made the following proposal, which several leaders endorsed: “Recycling surplus savings into investment in developing countries will not only address the immediate demand imbalance, it will also help to address developmental imbalances.	印度总理曼莫汉·辛格提出了以下建议，并得到了众多领导人的认同——“将过剩储蓄重新变成对发展中国家的投资不但能在短时间内解决需求不平衡状况，也将有助于缓解世界各国发展的不平衡状况。


In other words, we should leverage imbalances of one kind to redress imbalances of the other kind.”	换句话说，我们可以借一种不平衡去应对另一种不平衡。 ”


As we head into the second decade of the century, innovative ideas like using global savings or surpluses to finance infrastructure in emerging and developing countries should be pursued seriously.	随着我们进入本世纪的第二个十年，利用全球储蓄或盈余来资助新兴发展中国家基础建设的创新理念将受到追捧。


Doing so would not only sustain the growth momentum of these economies, but would contribute to global recovery by generating much-needed additional demand in the developed countries.	这样做不但能维持这些新兴经济体的增长，还将通过在发达国家创造急需的额外需求而为全球复苏做出贡献。


While the emerging economies’ global role will inevitably grow in the coming years, this shift will need to be anchored in a cooperative partnership with the developed world.	新兴经济体在未来所扮演的全球角色不可避免地变得更为重要，但这一转变也必须构筑在与发达国家合作伙伴关系的基础之上。


As for India, our resilient democratic values, ability to manage diversity, and strong economic fundamentals underpin our country’s current global posture.	对于印度来说，我们面对困境不断改进的民主价值，融合多元文化的能力以及强大的经济基础恰恰就成就了印度当前���全球的国家形象。


The Emerging “New Middle East”	“新中东”浮出水面


President George W. Bush’s Middle East policy undeniably managed to achieve one thing: it has thoroughly destabilized the region.	布什总统的中东政策毫无疑问地实现了一件事：它已经彻底地破坏了该地区的稳定。


Otherwise, the results are not at all what the United States had hoped to accomplish.	否则，这种结果也完全不是美国所希望达到的。


A democratic, pro-Western Middle East is not in the cards.	一个民主、亲西方中东不是美国想出的牌。


But, while things are not developing as American neo-conservatives had intended, they are nevertheless developing.	然而，尽管事情没有朝着美国新保守主义者希望的方向发展，但也毕竟在发展之中。


The historical failure named Iraq war, the demise of secular Arab nationalism and the soaring oil and gas prices have wrought profound changes in the region.	那场名为伊拉克战争的历史性失败、世俗阿拉伯国家主义的终结和高涨的石油和天然气价格给该地区带来了深远的变化。


From Damascus to Dubai, from Tel Aviv to Teheran, a new Middle East is now emerging.	从大马士革到迪拜，从特拉维夫到德黑兰，一个新的中东正在出现。


The old Middle East arose from the borders and political identities created by the European powers after the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1918.	旧的中东建立在欧洲列强在1918年土耳其帝国崩溃以后所创建的边界和政治认同之上。


Its driving ideological force was a European-inspired secular nationalism, which strove for political and social modernization through top-down government action.	为它提供驱动力的意识形态力量是受到欧洲启发的世俗国家主义，企图通过自上而下的政府行动实现政治和社会的现代化。


This type of nationalism, or “Arab socialism,” reached its apex during the Cold War, when it could lean on Soviet military, political, and economic support.	这种国家主义，或“阿拉伯社会主义”在冷战中到达了顶点。 当时它可以依赖苏联的军事、政治和经济支持。


Its end came with that of the Soviet Union, as it petrified into authoritarian, corrupt, and inefficient military regimes and dictatorships.	它随着苏联的解体而终结，僵化为专制、腐败和低效的军事政权和独裁统治。


The end of the Soviet Union also triggered a profound military crisis in many Arab states: without Soviet support as an external guarantor of their military capabilities, the nationalist regimes were no longer able to keep pace with military modernization.	苏联的解体还在许多阿拉伯国家引发了深层的军事危机：没有了苏联的支持作为其军事能力的外部保证，这些国家主义的政权不再能够保持军事现代化的步伐。


The nationalist regimes thus gradually lost domestic popular legitimacy, creating a vacuum that non-state actors have now largely filled.	这些国家主义政权也因此逐渐丧失了在国内民意中的合法性，由此造成的真空现在很大程度上由非国家实体填补了。


The ideological forces and the currency of power have also changed, with political Islam replacing secularism while skillfully integrating social issues and revolutionary, anti-Western nationalism.	意识形态力量和权力潮流的方向也发生了变化，政治伊斯兰教取代了世俗主义，并将社会问题和革命性的反西方民族主义进行有效的整合。


Today, the old Middle East can still be found in Syria, Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, Algeria, and Fatah-controlled Palestine.	现今，旧的中东仍然能够在叙利亚、埃及、也门、突尼斯、阿尔及利亚和法塔赫控制的巴勒斯坦得以保留。