Millions of health workers like my colleagues and I make immunization their daily work.	几百万像我和我同事那样的卫生工作者以免疫为自己的事业。


We have made tremendous strides in reaching more children with more vaccines, which is why more children are surviving than ever before.	我们在让更多儿童获得更多疫苗方面已经做出了巨大进步，这也是为何越来越多的儿童能够逃脱夭折命运的原因。


But there are still even more children to save, and we need help to do our work on the ground.	但跟多的儿童还在等待拯救，我们的事业需要帮助。


Because vaccines are useless if parents refuse to give them to their children, a big part of my job is to collaborate with health workers, community leaders, school teachers, and local political figures to educate parents about vaccines.	如果父母拒绝给孩子接种，那么疫苗将毫无用处。 因此，我工作的一大重点是与高薪工作者、社区领袖、学校教师和地方政治人物合作对父母进行疫苗教育。


But having the community’s support is not enough.	但获得社区支持是不够的。


It is also vital to ensure that vaccines get to the right place, at the right time, and in the right condition.	确保疫苗在正确的时间、正确的环境中出现在正确的地点也很关键。


For example, in order to prevent shortages, VillageReach, the organization for which I work, helped to correct the population figures used to forecast the number of vaccines needed in each health center.	比如，为了防止短缺，我所效力的组织VillageReach帮助修正了���于预测每个卫生中心所需疫苗数量的人口数据。


VillageReach also started a company that delivers propane gas to health centers in northern Mozambique, where, like in many of the country’s rural areas, electricity is unreliable or completely unavailable to power the refrigerators that keep vaccines cool.	VillageReach还开设了一家公司负责为莫桑比克北部的卫生中心输送丙烷气，与莫桑比克的许多农村地区一样，那里的电力供应很不可靠，甚至根本无法获得用于冷藏疫苗的冰箱所需的电力。


Through the use of propane, we can ensure that the vaccines do not spoil during the journey from manufacturer to mother and child.	通过丙烷气，我们得以确保疫苗不会在从制造厂抵达母亲和儿童手中的过程中变质。


And once a month, we make sure that health workers deliver vaccines and other health services “the last mile” to mothers and children in remote rural areas.	每个月，我们都要确保卫生工作者完成“最后一英里”，将疫苗和其他卫生服务送到边远农村的母亲和儿童手中。


Finally, I have learned that meticulous record-keeping and measuring results is critical to reaching more children.	最后，我明白一丝不苟的记录和测量结果对于让更多儿童获得疫苗来说是至关重要的。


That is why we are assessing different methods for gathering data from the field, including the use of mobile applications to digitize paper records.	这就是我们评估不同现场数据收集方法的原因，包括使用移动应用将纸面记录数字化。


Building these routine immunization systems has already helped us to eradicate diseases like polio and all but one type of measles.	打造常规免疫系统已让我们根除了小儿麻痹症和绝大部分麻疹（只有一种尚待根除）。


Earlier this month, we used them to vaccinate children against pneumonia for the first time in Mozambique’s history, and we hope that next year we will begin to address rotavirus, which causes diarrhea and is the number one killer for children under five years old.	本月早些时候，我们用常规免疫系统而儿童接种肺炎疫苗，这是莫桑比克历史上的首次，我们希望明年可以开始征服轮状病毒，该病毒所引起的痢疾是五岁以下幼儿的第一杀手。


Our longer-term goal is to strengthen these systems enough to reach all children in Mozambique with basic vaccines and other forms of health care.	我们的长期目标是强化常规免疫系统，使其覆盖莫桑比克所有儿童，让他们获得基本疫苗和其他医疗服务。


I believe that we can achieve this goal, because I have witnessed how far we have come already, despite our struggles.	我相信我们可以完成这一目标，因为尽管充满了艰辛，我们已经取得了重大进步。


Big challenges lie ahead, but I am confident that with the support of the global community, I can leave to my own children and community a thriving country where every person has the opportunity to prosper.	前方还有重大挑战，但我有信心，在全球社会的支持下，我有信心为我的孩子和社会带来一个每个人都拥有成功机会的繁荣过度。


A Recovery for All	令所有人受益的复苏


NEW YORK – Over the last two years, the majority of countries in the world chose to expand public spending in order to buffer the impact of the global financial crisis on their economies and populations.	纽约——过去两年来，世界多数国家都选择扩大公共开支，缓冲全球金融危机给本国经济和民众带来的影响。


But, this year, with signs of economic recovery emerging, advanced countries have quickly shifted from fiscal stimulus to fiscal consolidation.	但今年随着经济复苏的迹象开始出现，发达国家又迅速从财政刺激转向了财政整顿。


Now developing countries are also following the trend to consolidate.	现在就连发展中国家也开始加入整顿的行列。


A recent UNICEF survey of 126 countries shows that a significant number of low- and middle-income countries are expected to reduce public expenditures in 2010-2011.	联合国儿童基金会对126个国家的调查显示大量中低收入国家预计在2010－2011年削减公共开支。


This comes at a bad time, just after world governments committed themselves to achieving the development goals, such as reducing poverty and infant mortality, agreed last September at the United Nations’ Millennium Summit.	现在整顿时机不对，因为各国政府刚刚在去年九月举行的联合国千年首脑会议上承诺实现减少贫困和降低新生儿死亡率等发展目标。


For most low- and middle-income countries, the incipient economic recovery appears to be fragile and uneven.	对多数中低收入国家而言，刚刚开始的经济复苏不仅脆弱，也很不平衡。


Indeed, many of these countries remain vulnerable to volatile commodity prices, financial-system weaknesses, depressed demand from world markets, and shortfalls in external finance, overseas development assistance, and investment.	事实上，很多中低收入国家很容易受到商品价格波动、金融系统缺陷、世界市场需求低迷、外部融资、海外发展援助和投资短缺的影响。


More importantly, according to the UN and the World Bank, the social impact of the global economic crisis continues to be felt in terms of rising hunger, unemployment, and social unrest.	更为重要的是，根据联合国及世界银行统计，全球经济危机的影响继续体现在饥饿、失业和社会动荡之中。


The combination of rising food and fuel prices and the financial and economic crisis has reduced poor families’ purchasing power, access to social services, and employment opportunities.	粮食和燃料价格上涨与金融和经济危机共同削弱了贫困家庭的购买力，同时也对他们享受到的社会服务和雇佣机遇造成了影响。


Moreover, poor households have reduced food consumption, with the UN Food and Agricultural Organization estimating that nearly one billion people are hungry and malnourished.	此外，贫困家庭已经开始缩减粮食消费，据联合国粮农组织估计约有10亿人处在饥饿和营养不良的状态中。


In addition to the millions already pushed into poverty in 2008-09, another 64 million could fall into extreme poverty during 2010 as a result of the combined, lingering effects of the crisis.	除2008－09年度已经跌入贫困的成百上千万人外，金融危机的长期综合影响会使另外6400万人在2010年陷入极度贫困。


In the 1980’s, adjustment programs required countries to cut back on their expenditures, including outlays on education, health, water, agriculture, and other sectors that make a difference to poor households.	20世纪80年代，调整计划也曾迫使国家削减教育、医疗、供水、农业及其他领域等改变贫困家庭生存状况的公共开支。


As the late Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere demanded publicly: “Must we starve our children to pay our debts?”	正如已故坦桑尼亚总统朱利叶斯·尼雷尔当众提出的那样： “我们是不是必须为了还债而饿死我们的孩子？ ”


Infant mortality rates rose among low-income groups in many developing countries, and inequality increased.	很多发展中国家低收入人群中新生儿死亡率上升，不平等现象也愈发严重。


This period came to be known as the “lost decade.”	上述时期被称为“失去的十年。


UNICEF responded with Adjustment with a Human Face, which argued that children must be protected during economic crises.	” 联合国儿童基金会因此提出了人性化调整计划，提出儿童利益必须在经济危机中得到保护。


It argued for more expansionary macroeconomic policies to generate employment, public-sector investments to serve the poor, and the establishment of social-protection systems.	儿基会主张实行更为宽松的宏观经济政策，在为穷人创造就业和公共投资机会的同时建立社会保障体系。


Thirty years later, déjà vu, the same message applies.	相似的一幕在三十年后又再度重演，我们还应该采取同样的对策。


The poor in developing countries are again being made to endure the worst consequences of a crisis that they played no part in creating.	发展中国家对危机没有任何责任的穷人再次被迫承担危机最严重的后果。


It is critically important that this does not lead to a new lost decade of development, and that poor households – especially children – do not suffer as they did in the 1980‘s.	关键是这次不能再演变为新一轮失去的十年，贫困家庭特别是儿童不能再像20世纪80年代那样备受煎熬。


And yet that could very well happen.	不过这种情况随时可能发生。


Our UNICEF survey of 126 developing countries found that among the nearly one-half that are reducing public expenditures, common adjustment measures include public-sector wage cuts or caps, withdrawal of food subsidies, and the targeting and rationalization of already meager social-protection systems.	联合国儿基会对126个发展中国家的调查表明在缩减公共开支的近半数国家中，常见的调整措施包括公共部门的减薪或限薪、取消粮食补贴和对已经少得可怜的社会保障体系进行限制和调整。


These adjustment measures are often adopted without carefully examining their social impact.	这些调整措施往往没有对社会影响认真研究就开始付诸实行。


How many poor children will suffer – or die – from lack of food and health care?	粮食和医疗服务匮乏会造成多少贫困儿童遭难或死亡？


How many children will miss out on education because teachers are absent due to low wages, or simply because poor children must work to supplement their family income?	低工资造成的教师短缺或者贫困儿童被迫工作贴补家用会让多少孩子失去上学的机会？


Adjustment of public expenditures raises the risk of a recovery that discriminates against the poor, and thus fuels greater inequities in developing countries.	调整公共支出增大了穷人在复苏中受到歧视的风险，从而进一步加剧发展中国家的不平等现象。


Premature fiscal contraction and/or withdrawal of countercyclical measures threaten the public support that is essential to promoting recovery among those hardest hit by the crisis.	过早的财政紧缩和/或取消反周期经济政策威胁着对促进受危机影响最严重群体恢复至关重要的公共财政支持政策。


As the global recession ebbs, the most urgent imperative is recovery for all – a recovery that is inclusive, expands employment opportunities, reduces inequalities, and sustains development processes.	随着全球经济衰退的好转，让所有人享受复苏成果是最为迫切的需求，复苏必须照顾到所有人的利益，扩大就业机会、改善不平等现象并继续保持发展进程。


This can be achieved.	但需要保持对贫困国家的援助； 需要政府关注支持就业和广义经济活动的扩张性宏观经济政策；


It requires that aid to poor countries be sustained; that governments focus on expansionary macroeconomic policies that support employment and broad-based economic activities; that new schemes be introduced to extend health services and social protection for the poor; and that investments in education, water supply, sanitation, agriculture, and food security receive the support they need.	需要制定扩大对贫困人口医疗服务和社会保护的新计划； 还需要教育、供水、卫生、农业和粮食安全领域的投资得到它们所必须的支持。


What Good Are Economists?	经济学家有是处吗？


NEW HAVEN – Since the global financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009, criticism of the economics profession has intensified.	纽黑文—2007—2009年全球金融危机和衰退爆发以来，对经济学界的批评日嚣尘上。


The failure of all but a few professional economists to forecast the episode – the aftereffects of which still linger – has led many to question whether the economics profession contributes anything significant to society.	只有少数职业经济学家预见到危机的来临——而危机的余波至今仍在震荡——这让许多人质疑经济学界是否给社会做出了重大贡献。


If they were unable to foresee something so important to people’s wellbeing, what good are they?	如果经济学家无法预见对人类福祉如此重要的事件，他们还有什么是处吗？


Indeed, economists failed to forecast most of the major crises in the last century, including the severe 1920-21 slump, the 1980-82 back-to-back recessions, and the worst of them all, the Great Depression after the 1929 stock-market crash.	诚然，经济学没有预见到上个世纪的大部分重大危机，包括1920—21年大崩盘、1980—82年背靠背衰退，以及最糟糕的1929年股市崩盘后的大萧条。


In searching news archives for the year before the start of these recessions, I found virtually no warning from economists of a severe crisis ahead.	检索这些衰退前一年中的新闻报道，我发现几乎不存在来自经济学家的事先严重危机警告。


Instead, newspapers emphasized the views of business executives or politicians, who tended to be very optimistic.	相反，报纸强调企业高管或政客的观点，而他们总是非常乐观。


The closest thing to a real warning came before the 1980-82 downturn.	最接近于真正警告的是1980—82年衰退前。


In 1979, Federal Reserve Chair Paul A. Volcker told the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress that the United States faced “unpleasant economic circumstances,” and had a “need for hard decisions, for restraint, and even for sacrifice.”	1979年，美联储主席保罗·沃克（Paul A. Volcker）对美国国会联合经济委员会（Joint Economic Committee）说，美国面临着“令人不安的经济环境”，并且有“必要做出艰难决定，有必要做出克制，甚至有必要做出牺牲。


The likelihood that the Fed would have to take drastic steps to curb galloping inflation, together with the effects of the 1979 oil crisis, made a serious recession quite likely.	”美联储有可能不得不采取猛烈措施遏制高企的通胀，再加上1979年石油危机的影响，让严重衰退就在眼前。


Nonetheless, whenever a crisis loomed in the last century, the broad consensus among economists was that it did not.	尽管如此，在上个世纪的所有危机酝酿期间，经济学家的广泛一致无不是没有危机。


As far as I can find, almost no one in the profession – not even luminaries like John Maynard Keynes, Friedrich Hayek, or Irving Fisher – made public statements anticipating the Great Depression.	就我的发现而言，几乎没有一位经济学家——即使是凯恩斯、哈耶克和费雪这样的巨擘——公开预言过大萧条的来临。


As the historian Douglas Irwin has documented, a major exception was the Swedish economist Gustav Cassel. In a series of lectures at Columbia University in 1928, Cassel warned of “a prolonged and worldwide depression.”	根据历史学家道格拉斯·欧文（Douglas Irwin）的记录，一个显著的意外是瑞典经济学家卡塞尔（Gustav Cassel），在1928年的一系列剑桥大学讲座中，卡塞尔警告了“世界性的长期萧条”。


But his rather technical discussion (which focused on monetary economics and the gold standard) forged no new consensus among economists, and the news media reported no clear sense of alarm.	但他相当技术性的讨论（集中于货币经济学和金本位）并未在经济学家间构成新共识，新闻媒体也完全没有警告萧条的报道。


Interestingly, contemporary news accounts reveal little evidence of public anger at economists after disaster struck in 1929.	有趣的是，当代新闻纪录中也没有什么证据证明1929年灾难爆发后公众对经济学家怒目相向。


So why has the failure to foresee the latest crisis turned out so differently for the profession?	那么，没能预见到最近的危机为何让经济学界受到了如此不同的对待？


Why has it – unlike previous forecasting failures – stoked so much mistrust of economists?	为何这一次——与前几次预测失败不同——给经济学家带来了如此多的不信任？


One reason may be the perception that many economists were smugly promoting the “efficient markets hypothesis” – a view that seemed to rule out a collapse in asset prices.	一个原因也许是人们感到许多经济学家自鸣得意地推广“有效市场假说”——该理论排出了资产价格崩盘的可能性。


Believing that markets always know best, they dismissed warnings by a few mere mortals (including me) about overpricing of equities and housing.	他们认为市场永远是消息最灵通的，忽视来自少数凡人（包括我）关于股市和房产价格过热的警告。


After both markets crashed spectacularly, the profession’s credibility took a direct hit.	在两大市场纷纷轰然崩溃后，经济学界的信誉也受到了直接打击。


But this criticism is unfair.	但如此批评并不公平。


We do not blame physicians for failing to predict all of our illnesses.	我们不会指责医生没有预见到所有疾病。


Our maladies are largely random, and even if our doctors cannot tell us which ones we will have in the next year, or eliminate all of our suffering when we have them, we are happy for the help that they can provide.	我们的发病大部分是随机的，即使我们的医生无法告诉我们未来几年我们会得什么病，或者无法在我们得病时消除我们的所有痛苦，但我们仍乐于接受他们所能提供的帮助。


Likewise, most economists devote their efforts to issues far removed from establishing a consensus outlook for the stock market or the unemployment rate.	类似地，大部分经经济学家致力于问题，而不是构建对股市或失业率前景的共识。


And we should be grateful that they do.	我们应该感谢他们的工作。


In his new book Trillion Dollar Economists, Robert Litan of the Brookings Institution argues that the economics profession has “created trillions of dollars of income and wealth for the United States and the rest of the world.”	在布鲁金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）的罗伯特·利坦（Robert Litan）在其新著《万亿美元经济学家》（Trillion Dollar Economists）中指出，经济学界“为美国和世界其他地区创造了数万亿美元收入和财富。


That sounds like a nice contribution for a relatively small profession, especially if we do some simple arithmetic.	”听起来，这个相对规模较小的职业做出了相当漂亮的贡献，特别是如果我们做一些简单计算的话。


There are, for example, only 20,000 members of the American Economic Association (of which I am President-Elect); if they have created, say, $2 trillion of income and wealth, that is about $100 million per economist.	比如，美国经济学会（American Economic Association，现在由我出任当选主席）只有20,000会员； 如果他们创造了（比如）2万亿美元收入和财富，那么相当于每位经济学家创造了1亿美元。


A cynic might ask, “If economists are so smart, why aren’t they the richest people around?”	怀疑派可能会问，“如果经济学家那么聪明，为何他们不是最富有的人？


The answer is simple: Most economic ideas are public goods that cannot be patented or otherwise owned by their inventors.	”答案很简单：大部分经济思想是公共品，不能申请专利还或者归发明者所有。


Just because most economists are not rich does not mean that they have not made many people richer.	大部分经济学家并不富有不意味着他们没有让许多人变得富有。


The fun thing about Litan’s book is that he details many clever little ideas about how to run businesses or to manage the economy better.	利坦的书中的有趣之处是他详细揭示了许多关于如何更好地运营企业或管理国家的奇妙的小主意。


They lie in the realm of optimal pricing and marketing mechanisms, regulation of monopolies, natural-resource management, public-goods provision, and finance.	它们存在于最优定价和营销机制、垄断监管、自然资源管理、公共品提供和发展等领域。


None of them is worth even a trillion dollars, but, taken together, Litan’s conclusion is plausible indeed.	所有这些观点单独看都不值一万亿美元，但加总起来，利坦的结论就相当有说服力了。


The 2010 book Better Living through Economics, edited by John Siegfried, emphasizes the real-world impact of such innovations: emissions trading, the earned-income tax credit, low trade tariffs, welfare-to-work programs, more effective monetary policy, auctions of spectrum licenses, transport-sector deregulation, deferred-acceptance algorithms, enlightened antitrust policy, an all-volunteer military, and clever use of default options to promote saving for retirement.	2010年由约翰·西格弗莱德（John Siegfried）的《学好经济学，过上美好生活》（Better Living through Economics）强调了这些创新对真实世界的影响：碳排交易、赚得收入（earned-income）税抵扣、降低贸易关税、工作福利（welfare-to-work）计划、高效货币政策、频段执照拍卖、交通部门去监管化、延迟接受算法（deferred-acceptance algorithms）、开明反垄断政策、纯志愿军、巧妙使用默认选项促进退休金储蓄等。


The innovations described in Litan’s and Siegfried’s books show that the economics profession has produced an enormous amount of extremely valuable work, characterized by a serious effort to provide genuine evidence.	利坦和西格弗莱德的书中所描述的创新表明了经济学界产生了大量非常有价值的工作，特点是化大力气提供真正的证据。


Yes, most economists fail to predict financial crises – just as doctors fail to predict disease.	是的，大部分经济学家没有预见金融危机——正如医生没有预见疾病。


But, like doctors, they have made life manifestly better for everyone.	但是，和医生一样，他们让所有人的生活都大大地改善了。


A Referendum For Kurdistan?	库尔德斯坦的全民公投？


The assassination of the President of Iraq's Governing Council makes it crystal clear that the US is failing to create the minimal law-and-order needed for any sort of orderly transfer of power to take place by June 30th.	伊拉克管理委员会主席遭暗杀清楚地表明：美国未能建立起6月30日和平移交权力所需的最低限度的法律和秩序。


Barely two months ago, the signing of a constitutional document by a US-appointed group of un-elected Iraqi officials was heralded as if it were the re-enactment of America's constitutional convention in Philadelphia in 1787.	仅仅两个月前，由美国任命的若干伊拉克非选举官员签署宪法文件时，人们欢呼雀跃，似乎重新回到了1787年的费城宪法的颁布时刻。


But by now it is clear that this is a worthless piece of paper.	时至今日，人们清楚地认识到这张废纸毫无意义。


No imposed constitution, however elegant it may be, will be very helpful to Coalition forces when confronted with the type of mayhem seen in towns like Fallujah or Najjaf.	面对着费卢杰或纳杰夫城所看到的严重暴力，没有一部强加的宪法能够对联军有所帮助，不管它看上去多么正义凛然。


In the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, however, the situation is completely different: in the last ten years, under the protection of the Allies' no-fly zone, and even more so since the toppling of Saddam, the Kurdish regional government has been able to establish and sustain a relatively orderly administration.	但在伊拉克北部的库尔德聚居区，情况却完全不同。 过去10年来，有了盟军禁飞区的保护，特别是萨达姆被推翻后，库尔德地区当局成功地建立和维持了秩序井然的政府。


It has overcome tribal and party differences and created a de facto functioning government, with an impressive record on development issues such as education, irrigation, and construction - and, above all, with no violence.	他们克服了种族和党派差异建立了行之有效的政府，并在诸如教育、灌溉和建设等发展领域取得了非常可喜的成绩。 最重要的一点是，库尔德政府避免了暴力。


Confronted with the debacle in the rest of (Arab) Iraq, the question has to be asked why the US-led coalition should not hold a referendum in the Kurdish region, asking the population how they would like to be ruled.	面对（阿拉伯）伊拉克其它地区的崩溃局面，我们必须要问一个问题：美国领导的盟军为何不在库尔德地区组织全民公决，询问库尔德人自己想要什么样的政府。


After all, the Kurds have, by any internationally accepted standards, a right to self-determination.	无论如何，按照一切国际认可的标准，库尔德人有权决定自己的命运。


Historically, the Kurds - who are distinct in language, culture, and historical consciousness from Arabs - never had their day in court.	历史上看，虽然库尔德人在语言、文化和历史观念上与阿拉伯人有着很大差距，但却从未在法庭上取得过发言权。


After World War I and the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the victorious Allies promised them a state of their own - a promise that was cynically betrayed when British and French imperial interests took precedence.	一次大战和奥特曼帝国沦陷后，胜利的联军曾许诺他们建立自己的国家¾这一誓言却为顾全英法帝国的利益而遭到可耻的被判。


Since then, the Kurds have suffered under the despotic rule of rival ethnic groups.	从那以后，库尔德人在敌对民族的统治下倍受煎熬。


There are obvious obstacles to holding such a referendum, primarily because the US does not have a mandate to dispose of Iraq as it pleases.	举行这样的全民公决显然面临障碍，主要因为美国无权随意决定伊拉克问题。


But the same goes for the rest of Iraq: the US is now lamely asking for a UN resolution mandating a transfer of power to a legitimate Iraqi government - but such an authorization is highly unlikely, nor is there anyone in Iraq to whom authority can conceivably be transferred.	在伊拉克其它地区情形也是一样：美国正说服联合国，授权它将权力移交给合法的伊拉克政府，但真正获得授权的机会却小得可怜，伊拉克也不存在任何党派，能够接受这样的权力。


Why should the one region - and people - who run an orderly government, are not involved in murder, attacks on mosques, and suicide bombing of schoolchildren, be penalized?	库尔德人民拥有合法的政府，也并未参与谋杀、袭击清真寺和对在校学生的自杀性爆炸活动，他们凭什么受到惩罚？


Another objection is the opposition of Turkey - and, to a lesser degree, Iran and Syria - to granting the Iraqi Kurds self-determination.	此外，土耳其反对库尔德全民公决，伊朗和叙利亚也不赞成赋予库尔德人自治权利。


But if one thinks in terms of universal norms of human rights, what right has Turkey to dictate internal development in another country?	但如果从国际人权的普遍准则出发，土耳其有什么权利决定别国的内部发展？


After all, nobody accepts Israel's claim to oppose as a matter of principle the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.	归根结底，没有谁认可以色列反对巴勒斯坦在西岸和加沙地带建国的原则。


The same should apply to Turkey.	对土耳其的态度也应如此。


If Turkey grants its own Kurdish minority more cultural and language rights and allows legitimate Kurdish political representation in the Turkish parliament, the willingness of Turkish Kurds to oppose Ankara will be diminished.	如果土耳其赋予国内库尔德少数民族更多的文化和语言权利，允许库尔德政治权利在土耳其议会中合法存在，就会削减土耳其库尔德人反对安卡拉的意愿。


In the nineteenth century, the joint interests of the authoritarian Russian, German, and Austrian Empires prevented the establishment of a free Poland: such unholy alliances have no place in the twenty-first century.	19世纪，专制的俄国、德国和奥地利帝国的共同利益阻止了自由波兰的最终诞生：如此邪恶的联盟在21世纪将没有容身之地。


Recently, under the aegis of the UN, a referendum on the future of Cyprus was held within the island's Greek and Turkish communities.	最近在联合国的支持下，有关塞浦路斯未来的全民公决在岛国希腊和土耳其人聚居区隆重举行。


The outcome was paradoxical, and not to the liking of those who initiated it: but the right of the communities to determine their future was accepted.	公决的结果非常矛盾，并不符合公决发起者的最初愿望：但决定自身未来的集体权利最终得到了认可。


Why not in Iraqi Kurdistan?	伊拉克库尔德斯坦为什么不能这样？


Perhaps to assuage political fears - and considerations of international law - any plebiscite in the Kurdish region should, initially, have only a consultative status.	为了平息政治愤怒、顾全国际规则，库尔德地区的任何公民投票起初也许都仅该作为参考。


But it will give legitimate expression to the will of a people long oppressed and entitled to their place in the sun.	但这会赋予长久受到压迫的人们合法的表达权利，他们有权利在阳光下拥有一席之地。


Such a referendum may also concentrate minds among the Arab Sunnis and Shia in Iraq, when they come to realize that it is their violence that is dismantling Iraq.	这样的全民公决也可能在伊拉克逊尼和什叶派间达成一致，看到是暴力行为让伊拉克四分五裂。


Perhaps they may decide that violence is counter-productive and carries its own penalties, and may then follow the Kurdish example of curbing violence, which would help put Iraq together again without recourse to permanent repression.	也许他们会认识到暴力的负面作用和随之而来的惩罚，开始学习库尔德人制止暴力的榜样。 如果真是这样，那么无须借助长期的高压政策，伊拉克就能重新联合在一起。


If not, at the very least, the injustice suffered by the Kurdish people for generations would, at long last, be rectified.	即使伊拉克的统一未能实现，至少库尔德人世世代代遭受的不公正待遇将最终得到改观。


A Referendum on Obama	奥巴马面临全民公投


STANFORD – Successful political candidates try to implement the proposals on which they ran.	斯坦福—成功的政治候选人总是尽力实施他们所提出的政策主张。


In the United States, President Barack Obama and the Democrats, controlling the House of Representatives and (a filibuster-proof) Senate, had the power to do virtually anything they wanted in 2009 – and so they did.	2009年，奥巴马总统和民主党控制着众议院和（压到多数优势）参议院，可以随心所欲地做想做的事，而他们也确实做了。


Obama and his congressional allies enacted an $800 billion “stimulus” bill that was loaded with programs geared to key Democratic constituencies, such as environmentalists and public employees; adopted a sweeping and highly unpopular health-care reform (whose constitutionality will be determined by the Supreme Court this year); imposed vast new regulations on wide swaths of the economy; embraced an industrial policy that selects certain companies for special treatment; engaged in borrowing and spending at levels exceeded only in World War II; and centralized power in Washington, DC (and, within the federal government, in the executive branch and regulatory agencies).	奥巴马及其国会盟友们签署了8 000亿美元的“刺激法案”——该法案充斥着有利于民主党票源（如环保主义者和公务员）的项目； 实施了普遍覆盖但相当不受欢迎的医保改革（今年最高法院将裁决此项改革是否合宪）；


The last election that was followed by such a sweeping change in policy direction occurred in 1980, when President Ronald Reagan overhauled taxes, spending, and regulation, and supported the Federal Reserve’s course of disinflation.	上一次在政策发生如此大的转变之后进行大选是1980年，当时里根总统大刀阔斧地改革了税收、支出和监管政策，并支持美联储的反通胀立场。


While the 1988, 1992, and 2000 elections were also quite consequential, the policy shifts were not nearly as large as in 1980 and 2008.	1988、1992和2000年的选举也发生在政策转向之后，但转向之彻底远远不能和1980和2008年相提并论。


The country rebelled against Obama and the Democrats’ lurch to the left with historic Congressional election victories for Republicans in 2010.	美国背叛了奥巴马和民主党的突然左转，2010年，共和党在国会选举中赢得历史性胜利。


Since then, many Republicans have been deeply disappointed that the House of Representatives has been unable to roll back much of Obama’s agenda.	此后，许多共和党人对众议院没能驳回奥巴马的政策主张感到十分失望。


But the US political system is set up to make it much harder to accomplish something than to block it.	但美国政治体系的初衷是让阻挠成事易于成事。


It is not easy to do a lot while controlling only one-half of one-third of the federal government.	如果你只能控制联邦政府的一半或三分之一，那么你有很多事情就很难做成。


The 2012 election is shaping up as a referendum on Obama’s policies and performance.	2012年的大选将是对奥巴马政策和表现的一次全民公投。


The economy is improving slowly, but it remains in bad shape, with high unemployment and millions having left the labor force.	经济在缓慢改善，但仍萎靡不振，失业率依旧高企，而且好几百万人已经退出了劳动力市场。


Republicans are expected to retain control of the House and regain a majority in the Senate.	共和党可能会继续控制众议院，而且将在参议员获得多数。


Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican frontrunner to challenge Obama in November, and the party’s other leading candidates, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, want less spending, major reforms of government programs, lower taxes, trade expansion, and less and more-targeted regulation than does Obama.	前马萨诸塞州州长、最有希望成为奥巴马11月大选竞争对手的罗姆尼以及其他共和党候选人（包括前众议院发言人纽特·金里奇）希望能够减少支出、对政府项目做出重大改革、降低税率、扩张贸易，并减少监管、增加监管的针对性。


Romney, for example, has a detailed 59-point economic program, including a cap on federal spending at 20% of GDP, which would require reductions similar to those in the 1980’s and 1990’s.	比如，罗姆尼提出了一个59条内容的详细经济计划，包括将联邦支出限制在GDP的20%（这要求类似于20世纪80年代和90年代的支出削减）。


Gingrich and the other Republicans have an even more aggressive agenda of cutting taxes and reducing the size and scope of government.	金里奇和其他共和党人的减税和缩小政府规模与范围的计划比罗姆尼还要激进。


The eventual nominee would be wise to incorporate his opponents’ best ideas and top people into his campaign.	最终从共和党提名战中胜出者将明智地整合其反对者的好主意，壮大自己的阵营。


A Republican presidential victory, together with Republican control of the House and Senate, would likely lead to substantial reduction, repeal, and replacement of many Obama initiatives, attempts to reform taxes and entitlements, and measures to impose greater fiscal discipline.	若共和党在大选中胜出并控制众议院和参议院，那么他们可能会大幅度地削减、取消甚至逆转奥巴马的不少举措，实行税收和福利改革，采取更有纪律性的财政政策。


High on Romney’s agenda is a reduction of the corporate-tax rate, from 35% to 25%, the OECD average level (the other Republican candidates would lower it still more), which would redress a major competitive disadvantage for American multinational companies’ global business.	在罗姆尼的计划中，最重要的是把公司税从35%削减至25%，即经合组织的平均水平（其他共和党人提出的减税幅度更大），这将显著改善美国跨国公司全球业务竞争力低下的问题。


A Republican victory would also most likely lead to a major push to open up many more energy-exploration opportunities within America, which Obama has stymied.	共和党的胜利还会导致大规模开放美国国内的能源勘探机会，而奥巴马是抵制这一点的。


Romney has promised tougher negotiations on trade and currency with China, but is generally far more likely to push new trade agreements than the labor-supported Obama administration.	罗姆尼还承诺将就贸易和货币问题和中国展开更强硬的谈判，但总的来说，与支持美国劳动力的奥巴马政府相比，共和党更有可能与中国达成新的贸易协定。


If, however, Democrats retain control of the Senate, this will be far more difficult to accomplish.	不过，如果民主党仍能保持对参议院的控制，则共和党要在这方面取得成就将变得很难。


A Republican president also would make appointments to many key policymaking positions, from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to regulatory agencies.	共和党总统还能任命众多关键的决策性职位，比如美联储主席、财政部部长以及监管机构首脑。


If Obama is re-elected, and Republicans control the House and Senate, his legislative agenda will essentially be a dead letter, and he will spend the next two years, at least, negotiating its reform and rollback.	如果奥巴马连任，而共和党控制众议院和参议院，则前者的立法计划将泡汤，至少在未来2年里，奥巴马将面临政策谈判和扯皮。


In this scenario, the policy center of gravity in the Republican party would shift to House Speaker John Boehner, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, Paul Ryan, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and other key Representatives, including David Camp, Kevin Brady, and Kevin McCarthy, along with several Senators.	如果发生这样的情景，则共和党政策中心将转移至参议院发言人约翰·博纳、众议院预算委员会主席保罗·瑞恩、众议院多数党领袖埃里克·康托和其他众议员，包括���卫·坎普、凯文·布雷迪、凯文·麦卡锡，以及部分参议员。


In that case, Obama would be wise to move to the center (as Bill Clinton did after the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994) and work with congressional Republicans to shape sensible tax and entitlement reforms.	无论如何，奥巴马肯定会转向政治中心（正如比尔·克林顿在1994年民主党失去对国会的控制后所做的那样），与国会中的共和党一起制定明智的税收和福利改革。


But that seems unlikely: since the Democrats’ massive defeat in 2010, Obama has moved even further to the left, embracing a more populist agenda.	但这似乎是不可能完成的任务：自从民主党在2010年惨遭滑铁卢以来，奥巴马便与左翼渐行渐远，采取了更加民粹主义的立场。


Regardless of the outcome of this year’s presidential and congressional elections, various Republican state governors are likely to gain a higher national profile.	不管今年大选和国会选举结果如何，不少共和党州长将赢得高度支持。


All of them – including Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Bob McDonnell of Virginia, and former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida – declined to seek the Republican presidential nomination, but will be on the short list for 2016 should Obama win in November.	他们——包括印第安纳州的米奇·丹尼尔斯、新泽西州的克里斯·克里斯蒂、弗吉尼亚州的鲍勃·麦克唐纳以及佛罗里达州前州长杰布·布什——都没有需求获得共和党总统候选人提名，但如果奥巴马在11月的大选中获胜，那么他们很可能会在2016年成为民主党的对手。


Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis famously described the states as “laboratories”: they should be allowed to experiment and learn from each other which policies work.	最高法院大法官路易斯·布兰代斯有一个著名论断，州是“实验室”，是彼此学习政策效果的试验场。


For example, Clinton and the Republican Congress based landmark 1996 welfare reform on policies originated by Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson and successfully emulated by New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, both reformist Republicans.	比如，克林顿和共和党国会1996年的福利改革便是基于最先由威斯康辛州州长汤米·汤普森实施、然后被纽约市市长鲁迪·朱利安尼成功模仿的政策的。


The current cohort of Republican governors offers similarly innovative state-level solutions – for example, on spending, debt, and unfunded pension and health liabilities – as models for the country.	如今，这群共和党州长也提供了类似的创新性州级解决方案（包括支出、债务和养老金及医保开支缺口等问题），可以作为全国的参考样板。


Until November, divided government and contentious campaigning will most likely prevent significant policy moves.	在11月之前，分裂的政府和各自为战的竞选想必将阻挠重大政策动作的产生。


But, following the election, taxes and spending, trade policy, federalism, regulation, and defense will take a different course – how different depends on who wins – with important implications for America’s fiscal position, external balance, and much else, including its relations with the rest of the world.	但是，在大选结束后，税收和支出政策、贸易政策、联邦主义、监管以及防务政策都将出现改变（改变有多剧烈，取决于谁能胜出），并对美国的财政状况、国际收支和其他方方面面（包括美国与世界其他地区的关系）产生重大影响。


Are Foreign Investors Still Welcome?	外国投资者还受人欢迎吗？


World flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) have soared over the past two decades, from $40 billion in the early 1980’s to $900 billion last year.	过去20年来，世界直接外资的流量发生了迅猛的增长，从20世纪80年代的400亿美元一路飙升到了去年的9000亿美元。


The cumulative stock of FDI has reached close to $10 trillion, making it the most important mechanism for delivery of goods and services to foreign markets: sales by foreign affiliates total roughly $19 trillion, compared to world exports of $11 trillion.	直接外资的累计总额已经接近了10万亿美元，使之成为向国外市场输送商品和服务的最重要的方式：国外分支机构的销售额合计约为19万亿美元，而与此相对应的全世界出口总额却只有11万亿美元。


At the same time, the liberalization of FDI regimes by virtually all countries has been a driving force of intra-firm trade – the lifeblood of the emerging system of integrated international production and already around one-third of world trade.	与此同时，直接外资形式在几乎所有国家实现自由化已经成为公司内部贸易的推动力量¾直接外资是新兴的统一国际制造体系赖以生存的血液，已经占据了世界贸易三分之一的份额。


But are the good times coming to an end?	但是，这样的黄金时代是否已经结束了呢？


FDI can bring a range of benefits, but it also can have costs.	直接外资可以带来一系列的好处，但也能让我们付出代价。


During the 1970’s, when the transnational corporations (TNC’s) undertaking such investment caught the public eye, many governments believed that the costs of FDI outweighed its benefits, so they controlled it.	20世纪70年代，直接投资国外的跨国公司（TNC’s）刚刚引起人们注意的时候，很多政府都认为直接外资的代价超过了它的收益，因此采取了控制外资的政策。


Led by the developed countries, the pendulum began to swing in the 1980’s.	20世纪80年代，权衡直接外资利弊的天平在发达国家的引导下开始发生倾斜。


Once viewed as part of the problem, FDI became part of the solution to economic growth and development.	从前一直被认为是问题制造者的直接外资，慢慢开始成了经济增长和社会发展的推动力量。


Nothing exemplifies this more than changes in national FDI regimes.	这种变化最好的例证莫过于国家的直接外资政策。


As the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reports, of the 2,156 changes that took place between 1991 and 2004, 93% were in the direction of creating a more hospitable environment for TNC’s.	按照联合国贸易和发展会议的报告，1991到2004年间发生的共计2，156项变革之中，93%都符合为跨国公司创造更有利的投资环境的大方向。


But there is a real danger that the pendulum is beginning to swing back, leading to a reversal of that liberalization process.	但现在，我们却面临着天平再次倾斜的真实的危险，这可能导致自由化的过程发生回潮。


FDI in developed countries (and increasingly in emerging markets) often takes the form of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A’s).	发达国家的直接外资（新兴市场也有向这个方向靠拢的趋势）经常会采用跨国兼并（M&A’s）的方式。


Resistance to such M&A’s is becoming more frequent when they involve domestic firms that are regarded by politicians as “national champions” or important for national security, economic development, or cultural identity.	但在涉及到被政界人士看作“国家领袖”、或者对国家的安全、经济、发展和文化特性有重要意义的国内企业时，对上述兼并的抵触情绪越来越多地成为了家常便饭。


The growing involvement of private equity groups in M&A activity implies additional controversy, as such transactions are typically regarded as being purely speculative.	私有资产机构越来越多地参与兼并活动有可能进一步引发争议，因为这样的交易通常被认为带有纯粹的投机性质。


In the name of “economic patriotism,” security, and other considerations, resistance to M&A’s is being codified in an increasing number of countries.	打着“经济爱国主义”、安全和其他形形色色的旗号，越来越多的国家将抵制兼并写进了本国法律。


For example, a United States Senate committee recently sought to block the planned liberalization of foreign takeover rules for airlines, while Europe has enacted more restrictive takeover laws.	比如，美国参议院委员会不久前试图阻止放松外资对航空公司兼并限制的法律规定获得通过，无独有偶，欧洲刚刚出台的兼并法律其限制性也大为增强。


Moreover, governments are applying more strictly existing regulatory provisions concerning the vetting of takeovers by foreign firms.	不仅如此，在对外国公司兼并进行审查时，各国政府在执行现有的监管规定时都变得更加一丝不苟。


This response is intertwined with a defensive reaction to the growing role of TNC’s from emerging markets, the “new kids on the block.”	上述反应中还夹杂着由于新兴市场跨国企业的崛起而导致的保护性行动，这些新兴市场企业成了“经济舞台上新的对手。


Established TNC’s, and their home countries, will need to adjust to this new constellation of forces and its implications for the world market.	”老牌的跨国企业和它们的源起国需要为迎接新势力的挑战作出调整，还要适应这些新贵企业为世界市场带来的变化。


As we know from other contexts, adjustment to newcomers is not easy: compare, say, the reaction to the tie-up between France’s Alcatel and America’s Lucent to the bids by the China National Offshore Oil Corporation for Chevron or Mittal for Acelor.	正如我们在很多情况下所领悟到的，适应新的变化并不容易：只要对比一下法国阿尔卡特和美国朗讯合并与中海油收购雪佛龙或者米塔尔收购阿赛洛所引起的截然不同的反应，这一点就再清楚不过了。


Another type of defensive reaction – this time to outward FDI – may well arise once the offshoring of services gathers more speed.	一旦外购服务的发展速度加快，另外一种形式的保护性动作很可能开始崭露头角¾但这次是直接对外投资将要受到挑战。


All indications are that offshoring has reached the tipping point, and more of it will take place through FDI.	所有迹象都表明：外购的发展已经到达了临界点，进一步的外购要通过直接外资的形式才能实现。


If home countries do not put in place the adjustment mechanisms to deal with the rapidly unfolding revolution in making service industry jobs tradable, a backlash against such outward FDI will become inevitable.	如果外资输出国不加紧制定恰当的调节机制来应对实现服务工作可交换这一迅速崛起的挑战，那么这种直接对外投资所引发的强烈反对情绪最终会变得无法避免。


The growing unease with FDI is so far largely confined to developed countries.	直接外资所引发的不安目前还主要局限在发达国家的范围之内。


But there are signs that it is spreading to emerging markets.	但已经有迹象表明：这种忧虑正在向新兴市场悄悄地扩散。


In the case of large-scale projects, some host countries are raising questions about the contracts that define their relationship with TNC’s, and governments are reviewing such contracts because they believe (rightly or wrongly) that they did not get a fair deal.	特别在涉及到大型项目时，有些东道国正在对界定自身与跨国企业之间关系的合同提出疑问，东道国政府也在对上述合同进行审查，理由是他们相信（不管这种想法是对是错）自己并没有得到公正的对待。


Of the 219 known international arbitration cases concerning investment projects, some two-thirds were initiated during the past three years.	在已知的219起涉及投资项目的国际仲裁诉讼案中，约有三分之二都是在过去三年内提出的。


Approaches to FDI have changed in the past, and they can change again in the future, depending on how governments view the balance of costs and benefits.	对待直接外资的态度过去曾经改变过，未来还有可能再次改变，这取决于政府如何看待成本与收益之间的平衡。


This balance involves not only economic factors, but also such considerations as security and the desire to control one’s own economic development.	这种平衡不仅牵扯到经济因素，而且还夹杂着维护国家安全和控制本国经济发展的强烈愿望。


The concept of “twenty-first-century nationalization,” introduced by Peruvian presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, mirrors in this respect the “economic patriotism” of French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin.	在这方面，由秘鲁总统候选人奥兰塔·乌马拉（Ollanta Humala）提出的“21世纪民族化”理念与法国总理多米尼克·德维尔潘(Dominique de Villepin)首创的“经济爱国主义”可谓如出一辙。


Reservations against FDI (as against anything foreign) can be found in all groups of countries, and politicians can bring them to the surface, resulting in protectionism.	对直接外资的保守态度（任何外来事务也都会面临同样的命运）在所有国家集团中普遍存在，而政治家们可以让这样的保守态度浮出水面，造成保护主义的后果。


It would be ironic, though, if developed countries – which led the FDI liberalization wave of the past two decades – now led a backlash against FDI.	尽管如此，如果由过去20年来一直领导着直接外资自由化运动的发达国家再来带头发起抵制运动，这未免太过具有讽刺意味。


Let us hope that the de-liberalization seen in developed countries can be checked before it spreads to other parts of the world and ultimately brings undesirable consequences for all.	让我们共同盼望发达国家的反自由化浪潮能够在蔓延到世界其他国家之前得到有效的遏制，避免最终带来我们都不希望看到的后果。


America’s Hope Against Hope	美国：此希望与彼希望


NEW YORK – After a hard-fought election campaign, costing well in excess of $2 billion, it seems to many observers that not much has changed in American politics: Barack Obama is still President, the Republicans still control the House of Representatives, and the Democrats still have a majority in the Senate.	纽约—在激烈的选战后——总共花费了20多亿美元——许多观察者认为美国政治并没有因此改变多少：奥巴马仍旧是总统，共和党仍旧控制着众议院，民主党仍旧占据着参议员多数。


With America facing a “fiscal cliff” – automatic tax increases and spending cuts at the start of 2013 that will most likely drive the economy into recession unless bipartisan agreement on an alternative fiscal path is reached – could there be anything worse than continued political gridlock?	美国面临着“财政悬崖”，即从2013年开始自动增税减支，这极有可能将经济拖入衰退，除非两党就替代性财政方案达成一致，从这个角度看，还有什么比政治僵局持续更糟糕的吗？


In fact, the election had several salutary effects – beyond showing that unbridled corporate spending could not buy an election, and that demographic changes in the United States may doom Republican extremism.	事实上，大选带来了诸多有益因素——除了证明恣意妄为的公司资金无法收买大选，以及证明美国人口结构变迁宣判了共和党死刑之外。


The Republicans’ explicit campaign of disenfranchisement in some states – like Pennsylvania, where they tried to make it more difficult for African-Americans and Latinos to register to vote – backfired: those whose rights were threatened were motivated to turn out and exercise them.	共和党堂而皇之地要求剥夺一些州的选举权——比如，在宾夕法尼亚州，他们设法增加非洲裔和拉丁裔美国人注册为选民——结果适得其反：选举权受到威胁的选民被迫站起来反击。


In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor and tireless warrior for reforms to protect ordinary citizens from banks’ abusive practices, won a seat in the Senate.	在马萨诸塞州，哈佛法学教授、不知疲倦为保护普通公民免受银行行为不端带来的损失而奔走的改革先锋的伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）赢得了一个参议院席位。


Some of Mitt Romney’s advisers seemed taken aback by Obama’s victory: Wasn’t the election supposed to be about economics?	某些罗姆尼的幕僚被奥巴马的胜利弄懵了：选举难道不是个经济问题吗？


They were confident that Americans would forget how the Republicans’ deregulatory zeal had brought the economy to the brink of ruin, and that voters had not noticed how their intransigence in Congress had prevented more effective policies from being pursued in the wake of the 2008 crisis.	他们自信满满地认为美国人会忘记共和党的热衷于去监管化将美国经济界拖入了毁灭的边缘，自信满满地认为选民不会注意到共和党在国会的从中作梗使得更有效的政策无法在2008年危机爆发时实施。


Voters, they assumed, would focus only on the current economic malaise.	他们认为，选民只会把注意力集中在当前的经济萎靡上。


The Republicans should not have been caught off-guard by Americans’ interest in issues like disenfranchisement and gender equality.	共和党不应该忽视美国人对剥夺选举权和性别平等等问题上的兴致。


While these issues strike at the core of a country’s values – of what we mean by democracy and limits on government intrusion into individuals’ lives – they are also economic issues.	这些问题直击美国价值的命门——我们��民主的意义、政府干预个人生活的界限，等等——同时也是经济问题。


As I explain in my book The Price of Inequality, much of the rise in US economic inequality is attributable to a government in which the rich have disproportionate influence –& and use that influence to entrench themselves.	正如我在《不平等的代价》（The Price of Inequality）一书中所指出的，美国经济不平等中有很大一部分可以归因于富人对政府的影响不成比例，并利用此影响巩固自己的富裕。


Obviously, issues like reproductive rights and gay marriage have large economic consequences as well.	显然，像生育权和同性恋婚姻等问题，同时具有重要的经济影响。


In terms of economic policy for the next four years, the main cause for post-election celebration is that the US has avoided measures that would have pushed it closer to recession, increased inequality, imposed further hardship on the elderly, and impeded access to health care for millions of Americans.	在考虑未来四年的经济政策时，选举后举国相庆的主要原因是美国避免了可能将其推向衰退、加剧不平等性、让老龄人口生活更困难、让千百万美国人难以获得医保的措施。


Beyond that, here is what Americans should hope for: a strong “jobs” bill – based on investments in education, health care, technology, and infrastructure – that would stimulate the economy, restore growth, reduce unemployment, and generate tax revenues far in excess of its costs, thus improving the country’s fiscal position.	除此之外，美国人还应该希望的措施包括：能够刺激经济、重塑增长、减少失业、创造远多于成本的税收收入的强有力的基于教育、卫生、技术和基础设施投资的“就业”账单，从而改善美国的财政状况。


They might also hope for a housing program that finally addresses America’s foreclosure crisis.	美国人或许还希望能有一个可以最终解决美国止赎危机的住房计划。


A comprehensive program to increase economic opportunity and reduce inequality is also needed – its goal being to remove, within the next decade, America’s distinction as the advanced country with the highest inequality and the least social mobility.	同样必需的还有增加经济机会和减少不平等性的全面计划，其目标应该着眼于未来十年，让美国不再是发达国家中不平等性最严重、社会流动性最差的国家。


This implies, among other things, a fair tax system that is more progressive and eliminates the distortions and loopholes that allow speculators to pay taxes at a lower effective rate than those who work for a living, and that enable the rich to use the Cayman Islands to avoid paying their fair share.	这意味着（包括但不限于）更加累进的公平税收制度、消除让投机者得以以比努力工作讨生活者更低的有效税率纳税，从而让富人得以利用开曼群岛避免缴纳合理税负的税制扭曲和漏洞。


America – and the world – would also benefit from a US energy policy that reduces reliance on imports not just by increasing domestic production, but also by cutting consumption, and that recognizes the risks posed by global warming.	美国可以通过增加国内产量，也可以通过减少消费减少对进口能源的依赖，更应该认识到全球变暖的威胁。 以此为基础的能源政策可以让美国和全世界受益。


Moreover, America’s science and technology policy must reflect an understanding that long-term increases in living standards depend upon productivity growth, which reflects technological progress that assumes a solid foundation of basic research.	此外，美国科技政策必须体现其对长期生活标准提高需依赖于生产率增长的认识，而生产率的增长又反映了需以坚实的基础研究为基石的技术进步。


Finally, the US needs a financial system that serves all of society, rather than operating as if it were an end in itself.	最后，美国需要一个能服务整个社会，而不是看上去像是在自我了结的金融系统。


That means that the system’s focus must shift from speculative and proprietary trading to lending and job creation, which implies reforms of financial-sector regulation, and of anti-trust and corporate-governance laws, together with adequate enforcement to ensure that markets do not become rigged casinos.	这意味着金融系统的中心应该从投机和自营交易转向借贷和就业创造，而这又要求金融部门监管、反垄断和公司治理法律等方面的改革和充分强化，以保证市场不会变成被操纵的赌场。


Globalization has made all countries more interdependent, in turn requiring greater global cooperation.	全球化让所有国家都变得更加相互依赖，这反过来有要求更大的全球合作。


We might hopethat America will show more leadership in reforming the global financial system by advocating for stronger international regulation, a global reserve system, and better ways to restructure sovereign debt; in addressing global warming; in democratizing the international economic institutions; and in providing assistance to poorer countries.	我们可能希望美国可以通过支持更严格的国际监管、全球储备体系和更好的重组主权债务的方式在改革全球金融系统上、在解决全球变暖问题上、在国际经济制度民主化中，以及在为穷国提供援助方面拿出更大的领导力。


Americans should hope for all of this, though I am not sanguine that they will get much of it.& More likely, America will muddle through – here another little program for struggling students and homeowners, there the end of the Bush tax cuts for millionaires, but no wholesale tax reform, serious cutbacks in defense spending, or significant progress on global warming.	美国人应该希望所有这些方面，尽管我对于能实现多少希望并不乐观。 更有可能的情况是美国采取得过且过的态度——一方面为苦苦挣扎的学生和屋主提供不痛不痒的计划，一方面结束布什对富翁的减税政策，但又不进行全面的税收改革、不大幅削减防务支出，也不在全球变暖问题上争取重大进步。


With the euro crisis likely to continue unabated, America’s continuing malaise does not bode well for global growth.	欧元危机可能还会延续多时，因此美国的持续萎靡对全球增长来说绝非好事。


Even worse, in the absence of strong American leadership, longstanding global problems – from climate change to urgently needed reforms of the international monetary system – will continue to fester.	更糟糕的是，没有美国的强有力的领导，长期全球问题——从气候变化到急需改革的国际货币体系——将继续发酵。


Nonetheless, we should be grateful: it is better to be standing still than it is to be heading in the wrong direction.	尽管如此，我们还是应该庆幸：按兵不动总比朝错误的方向越走越远好。


Are Housing Prices a House of Cards?	房屋价格是不是变化无常？


The first big city to boom was London, starting around 1996. Boom mentality spread to Los Angeles, New York, and Sydney around 1997, to Paris in 1998, to Miami, Moscow, and Shanghai in 2001, and Vancouver around 2002.	大城市房价飞涨首先始于1996年的伦敦，繁荣心理随后在1997年迅速传到了洛杉矶、纽约和悉尼，1998年传到巴黎，2001年传到迈阿密、莫斯科和上海，2002年又轮到了温哥华。


These and other cities have been booming pretty much ever since; prices in most are up at least 50% in real terms since 2000.	上述及其它城市此后住宅市场一片繁荣，房价从2000年的增幅至少达到了50%。


This has been a big windfall to homeowners, but has hurt anyone planning to buy.	这对房屋所有者无异于发了笔横财，但对计划买房的人却极为不利。


Now growth in home prices is weakening in some of these cities. The rate of price growth in London and New York slowed sharply over the past year, to only about a 1% real increase in the second quarter of 2004.	现在上述某些城市的房价涨势已经趋缓，过去一年来伦敦和纽约的价格涨幅大大回落，2004年第二季度实际涨幅只有约1%。


In Sydney, home prices actually fell in the second quarter.	在悉尼，房价实际在第二季度还有回落。


Has the boom ended? Will no other cities benefit?	市场繁荣是不是已近尾声？


Worse still, could the mood in housing markets soon lead prices in downward?	更糟的是，住宅市场的情绪是否会很快引发价格回落？


No one predicted this boom, so predicting its end is risky.	没人事先预见到了这次繁荣，因此预测它何时结束也充满了风险。


Housing prices have shown tremendous upward momentum in the face of previous warnings that the party is over.	在此前盛宴即将结束的警告声中，住宅价格曾充分显示了其上涨的强劲动力。


Any prediction concerning the boom's end requires understanding why it occurred in so many places.	要想对市场繁荣何时结束做出预测，就要首先了解它为什么在这么多城市发生。


Surprisingly, there is no well-received explanation, because this boom's ultimate causes are mostly psychological.	令人惊讶的是，对这个问题至今没有公认的解释，因为这次繁荣最终更多地来自心理原因。


Economists would rather talk about interest rates or unemployment statistics - factors that are concrete and knowable.	经济学家们宁愿去谈论利率或失业数字这样具体和可知的因素。


Of course, these indicators do have a legitimate role to play in explaining housing markets, but they are simply not adequate to account for the recent booms.	当然，这些指标在解释住宅市场时也起着一定作用，但要解释不久前的繁荣却还远远不够。


Three psychological causes stand out: first, a change in people's perceptions about the source of value in a changing world economy; second, increasing public faith in "glamour" cities with international name recognition; and third, the plain giddy dynamics of speculative bubbles.	有三种心理因素较为突出：首先，在不断变化的世界经济中人们对价值源泉的认识改变； 第二，公众对受到国际认可的"魅力"都市有很强的信心；


Each factor deserves greater attention if we are to understand current housing market conditions and discern future price trends.	第三，投机泡沫有着让人眼花缭乱的活力。 如果要想了解目前的住宅市场条件并洞悉未来的价格走势，我们需要更深入地了解所有这些因素。


First, the world economy does look more chaotic than it did a decade ago.	首先，世界经济看起来的确要比十年前更加混乱。


The crash in equity prices since 2000 in most countries has made financial assets look less secure, spurring a "flight to quality" - in this case, housing.	自从2000年在大部分国家发生资产价格的毁灭性跌落之后，金融资产不再给人从前的安全感，这样就刺激了"追求质量"的房地产业。


Moreover, terrorism is now viewed as a problem for everyone, with major tragedies in Indonesia, Spain, and Russia.	此外，恐怖主义对于今天的每一个人都是问题，它在印度尼西亚、西班牙和俄罗斯制造了一连串大的悲剧。


People feel safest investing in their homes, and there is little reason to expect imminent change.	人们发现在住宅上投资才最安全，同时不必担心不确定因素可能带来的风险。


Fear and upward momentum in home prices go together.	房价上涨的趋势因此，伴随恐慌心理，显示着强劲动力。


Second, the public's faith in glamorous international cities has increased with the explosive growth in global communications due to the Internet and the cell phone.	第二，随着因特网和手机问世，全球通讯以爆炸性的速度增长，公众对充满魅力的国际大都市也日渐神往。


Just as people increasingly admire international celebrities, so they believe that world famous centers of business, technology, and culture - whose names are household words to people everywhere - are uniquely valuable.	就如人们越来越崇拜国际名人一样，他们同样相信那些家喻户晓的、世界著名的商业中心，技术中心和文化中心具备其独有的价值。


As with fear of terrorism and suspicion of equities, geographical celebrity appears resilient, if not self-reinforcing: the more famous New York, Paris, and London get, the more glamorous they become.	伴随着对恐怖主义的恐慌心理，和对资产股票价格不稳定性的怀疑心理，这些大城市的地理知名度也有回弹趋势。 纽约、巴黎、伦敦这些地方越出名，他们就变得越耀眼而有魅力。


Third, and no less important, is the speculative contagion that underlies any bubble.	第三，导致这种经济泡沫的投机热同样是一个重要原因。


The current boom has seen contagion	当上扬的价格点燃了这一经济兴奋点，进而推动在该城市、其他城市甚至另一半球的价格上涨时，眼下的经济繁荣就在市场内和市场间见证了这种投机热。 上海人可能不会谈论伦敦的房价，但是上海的观察评论家们却知道伦敦正在发生什么，而伦敦房价的上涨似乎使上海房价的上涨看起来同样可行而有道理。


In contrast to the other two psychological causes, speculative contagion has a natural end.	其他两个心理原因构成鲜明对比的是，投机热会像生物一般有寿终正寝的一天。


A speculative bubble, sustaining itself solely by reaction to price increases, cannot go on forever.	投机泡沫仅靠对价格上涨作出反应来维系自己的生命，因此它不会永远存活下去。


So, where does this leave us?	那么这给我们一个什么样的答案呢？


Two of the three psychological causes suggest continued upward momentum in housing prices, while the third suggests that the momentum will come to an end some day, but does not pinpoint when.	三个心理原因中有两个都在暗示房价上涨的强劲动力会继续下去，而第三个原因告诉这一价格上涨的趋势终有一天会结束，但并没有精确指出具体什么时候。


I am betting that some high-flying glamour cities will continue to see decelerating growth in home prices - and eventually decreases.	我相信，一些耀眼的魅力都市会不断见证房价上涨的速度在减弱，并且最终回落。


Historically, housing prices have shown a lot of momentum, and prices in all these cities are still going up at a brisk rate, though usually somewhat slower than a year or more ago.	从历史的角度看，房价曾经显示了它的强劲势头，而且所有这些城市的房价依旧在快速上涨，虽然其速度比一年或一年多以前要慢。


Based on extrapolation of growth trends, it looks safe to predict that prices will go up substantially in most of these places for another year or more, even as the rate of increase continues to decline.	从这一趋势推断，虽然房价上涨的速度不断减慢，这些城市中大部分的房价还将在一年或一年多的时间里保持上升趋势。


The psychological factors are more important for longer-term forecasts, beyond a year, where momentum no longer plays an important role.	一年以后，当经济冲力不再起重要作用时，心理因素则对长期预测显得更为重要。


At this point, there is likely to be some downward instability in prices, because enthusiasm for investing in houses is likely to wane in line with declining price growth.	而眼下，对于房地产业的投资热情很可能会随着房价上涨速度的减弱而衰退，这样一来，房价便有向下回落的可能。


Prices in glamour cities are likely to drop sharply the next time there is a serious recession, or if the local economy suffers a severe shock, or if interest rates rise too fast.	在下一次出现经济萧条，或地方经济遭受严重打击，或银行利息率迅速回升时，大城市的房价很有可能急剧下跌。


Then, contagion within and across markets can work in a downward direction, propelling prices lower for years.	那么市场内和市场间的投机热会显现下滑态势，从而促使房价持续多年保持相对低迷。


Are Humans Getting Better?	人类变得更好了吗？


MELBOURNE – With daily headlines focusing on war, terrorism, and the abuses of repressive governments, and religious leaders frequently bemoaning declining standards of public and private behavior, it is easy to get the impression that we are witnessing a moral collapse.	发自墨尔本——看着每天充斥着战争，恐怖主义以及残暴政府滥权行为的报纸头条，听着那些宗教领袖们哀叹公共和私人生活的行为标准正不断下滑，这很容易给人以一种我们正生活在道德崩溃时代的印象。


But I think that we have grounds to be optimistic about the future.	但笔者却觉得有理由对我们的未来保持乐观。


Thirty years ago, I wrote a book called The Expanding Circle, in which I asserted that, historically, the circle of beings to whom we extend moral consideration has widened, first from the tribe to the nation, then to the race or ethnic group, then to all human beings, and, finally, to non-human animals.	30年前笔者曾写过一本名为《不断扩大的圈》的书，书中写道，从历史角度看，被我们纳入道德考量的事物圈子一直在扩大，先是从部落到国家，接着是种族或是族群，再到全人类，最后延伸到非人类生物。


That, surely, is moral progress.	而这肯定是种道德上的进步。


We might think that evolution leads to the selection of individuals who think only of their own interests, and those of their kin, because genes for such traits would be more likely to spread.	我们或许会认为进化导致那些只为自身利益考虑的个体——以及他们的亲族——才能被筛选留存下来，因为携带这类特性的基因更可能开枝散叶。


But, as I argued then, the development of reason could take us in a different direction.	但笔者当时则在书中指出，理性的发展将使我们走上一条不同的道路。


On the one hand, having a capacity to reason confers an obvious evolutionary advantage, because it makes it possible to solve problems and to plan to avoid dangers, thereby increasing the prospects of survival.	一方面，拥有理性思考的能力赋予了我们一项明显的进化优势。 它使我们可以解决问题并做好计划规避风险，因此也提高了生存下来的可能性。


Yet, on the other hand, reason is more than a neutral problem-solving tool. It is more like an escalator: once we get on it, we are liable to be taken to places that we never expected to reach.	但在另一方面，理性可不仅仅是一个中性的问题解决工具，而更像一个自动扶梯般的东西：一旦拥有了它，我们就能被送到一个过去从未触及的地方。


In particular, reason enables us to see that others, previously outside the bounds of our moral view, are like us in relevant respects.	特别是理性可以使我们发现，那些原本处于自身道德观之外的其他事物其实在相关方面与我们非常相似。


Excluding them from the sphere of beings to whom we owe moral consideration can then seem arbitrary, or just plain wrong.	于是将它们排除在我们应当进行道德考虑的领域之外会被认定是蛮横固执，或者简直就是错的。


Steven Pinker’s recent book The Better Angels of Our Nature lends weighty support to this view.  Pinker, a professor of psychology at Harvard University, draws on recent research in history, psychology, cognitive science, economics, and sociology to argue that our era is less violent, less cruel, and more peaceful than any previous period of human existence.	史蒂文·平克（Steven Pinker）最近出版的《我们本性中的好天使》一书对这一观点提供了极大支持。 这位哈佛大学心理学教授借鉴了在历史，心理学，认知科学，经济和社会学方面的新近研究成果，证明我们的时代其实已经比人类出现以来的任何时代都更少暴力，更不残忍，也更平和。


The decline in violence holds for families, neighborhoods, tribes, and states.	在家庭，邻里，部族和国家中的暴力行为都有所减少。


In essence, humans living today are less likely to meet a violent death, or to suffer from violence or cruelty at the hands of others, than their predecessors in any previous century.	基本上当今的人们比他们过往的祖先更少机会被暴力杀害，或者遭受他人施加的暴力或残酷行为。


Many people will doubt this claim.	许多人会对这个观点有所怀疑。


Some hold a rosy view of the simpler, supposedly more placid lives of tribal hunter-gatherers relative to our own.	有些人认为从前那种男打猎女采果的生活更简单也似乎更平和，也与自己当前的生活相近。


But examination of skeletons found at archaeological sites suggests that as many as 15% of prehistoric humans met a violent death at the hands of another person. (For comparison, in the first half of the twentieth century, the two world wars caused a death rate in Europe of not much more than 3%.)	但通过检测那些从考古遗址发掘出来的骨骼，我们发现有15%的史前人类是死于他人的暴力打击之下的（相比之下在20世纪上半叶，两次世界大战在欧洲导致的死亡率还不足3%。


Even those tribal peoples extolled by anthropologists as especially “gentle” – for example, the Semai of Malaysia, the Kung of the Kalahari, and the Central Arctic Inuit – turn out to have murder rates that are, relative to population, comparable to Detroit, which has one of the highest murder rates in the United States. In Europe, your chance of being murdered is now less than one-tenth, and in some countries only one-fiftieth, of what it would have been had you lived 500 years ago.	甚至连那些被考古学家称赞为尤其“温和”的部族族群——比如马来西亚的瑟买人（Semai），非洲卡拉哈里（Kalahari）沙漠地区的坤族人（Kung）以及生活在北极圈中部地区的因纽特人——其谋杀数量相对于人口总量的比率来说都可以跟底特律——美国谋杀率最高的城市之一——不相上下。


Pinker accepts that reason is an important factor underlying the trends that he describes.	平克同意理性是支撑他所阐述的趋势的一项重要因素。


In support of this claim, he refers to the “Flynn Effect” – the remarkable finding by the philosopher James Flynn that since IQ tests were first administered, scores have risen considerably.	为了支撑这一观点，他引用了“弗林效应”——哲学家詹姆斯·弗林（James Flynn）的一项重大发现：自从智商（IQ）首次进行测试以来，人们的得分取得了相当大的提升。


The average IQ is, by definition, 100; but, to achieve that result, raw test results have to be standardized.	在定义上平均智商值应该是100，但为了取得这一结果，原始的测试数据必须进行标准化。


If the average teenager today took an IQ test in 1910, he or she would score 130, which would be better than 98% of those taking the test then.	而如果今天一个拥有平均智商的青少年被送回1910年接受测试的话，他/她将能得到130分，高于当时98%的受测者。


It is not easy to attribute this rise to improved education, because the aspects of the tests on which scores have risen the most do not require a good vocabulary, or even mathematical ability, but instead assess powers of abstract reasoning.	我们不能轻易地把分数的提升归因于教育水平的提高，因为该项测试中分数提升最多的部分并不需要对词汇量的良好掌握或甚至是数学能力，而是抽象思维中的评估能力。


One theory is that we have gotten better at IQ tests because we live in a more symbol-rich environment.	另一个解释我们更高的智商分数的理论认为这是因为我们处于一个符号更加密集的环境之中。


Flynn himself thinks that the spread of the scientific mode of reasoning has played a role.	而弗林自己则认为科学推理模式的广泛传播也扮演了其中一个角色。


Pinker argues that enhanced powers of reasoning give us the ability to detach ourselves from our immediate experience and from our personal or parochial perspective, and frame our ideas in more abstract, universal terms.	平克认为推理能力的提升给予了我们把自身与当前经验以及个人狭隘观点分离开来的能力，并将我们的理念以一种更加抽象而普遍适用的方式勾勒出来。


This, in turn, leads to better moral commitments, including avoidance of violence.	这也转而催生了一个更美好的道德承诺，包括避免使用暴力。


It is just this kind of reasoning ability that improved during the twentieth century.	而在20世纪中也正是这种推理能力得到了提高。


So there are grounds to believe that our improved reasoning abilities have enabled us to reduce the influence of those more impulsive elements of our nature that lead to violence.	因此有理由相信是得到提升的推理能力使我们得以避免受到自己本性中更冲动因素的影响，而也正是这些因素引发了暴力。


Perhaps this underlies the significant drop in deaths inflicted by war since 1945 – a decline that has become even steeper over the past 20 years.	这或许可以解释自1945年以来战争死亡人口大幅减少的事实——在过去20年间下滑得更厉害。


If so, there would be no denying that we continue to face grave problems, including of course the threat of catastrophic climate change.	如果是这样的话，无可否认我们将继续面对诸多严峻问题，其中当然包括灾难性气候变化的威胁。


But there would nonetheless be some reason to hope for moral progress.	但即便如此，也有理由去期望更多的道德进步。


Are Humans Worse than Chernobyl?	人类是否比切尔诺贝利更糟？


PORTSMOUTH – Nearly 30 years have passed since the nuclear accident at Chernobyl, and the scientific community is still arguing about the impact radiation is having on the ecosystem surrounding the reactor.	朴茨茅斯——切尔诺贝利核事故已经过去了近三十年，科学界仍在就辐射对反应堆周围生态系统造成的影响争论不休。


Recently, together with other scientists, I studied the animals in the human exclusion zone around the plant.	不久前，我和其他科学家一道对核电站周围无人区的动物进行了研究。


The results were shocking: whatever the impact of radiation on animals may be, the effects of human habitation seem to have been a lot worse.	结果令人震惊：无论核辐射对动物造成了怎样的影响，人类居住所造成的后果似乎都更胜一筹。


The site offers a stark reminder that humans’ simple, physical presence in a habitat is more damaging than one of the twentieth century’s worst environmental catastrophes.	这样的结果不容回避地提醒人们：人类在栖息地的简单活动比21世纪最严重的环境灾难还要糟糕。


We studied animals in the nearly 2,200-square-kilometer (850 square miles) sector of the exclusion zone in Belarus called the “Polessye State Radioecological Reserve.”	我们针对方圆2，200平方公里（合850平方英里）的白俄罗斯“波萊谢国家放射生态保护”隔离区的栖息动物进行了研究。


Before the disaster, this area was home to 22,000 people in 92 villages, and the land was farmed and exploited for its forest resources.	灾难发生前，上述地区有22，000人，92座村庄，主要以耕种和林业资源开发为主。


In the days after the accident, the area’s human residents were evacuated with their farm animals to protect them from high levels of radiation.	事故发生几天后，政府对地区居民及其所养殖的动物进行了疏散，以保护它们免受高剂量辐射。


Even though radiation levels dropped by a factor of nearly 100 in the months after the accident, the area is still judged unfit for human habitation.	尽管这起事故发生数月后辐射水平下降了近100倍，但该地区仍被判定为不适合人类居住。


There are few reports on the effects of the accident on wild animals, but we know that in some radiation hot spots trees and wildlife died.	很少有人报道这起事故对于野生动物的影响，但我们知道某些辐射热点地区死亡了大批树木和野生动物 。


Some might expect that, nearly 30 years later, the area around the reactor remains a wasteland, sparsely populated by genetically damaged animals exposed to chronic radiation across multiple generations.	有些人可能以为近30年过去了，反应堆周围地区仍然是一片荒芜，偶尔可见世代遭受慢性辐射且基因受损的野生动物。


The reality is very different.	但现实情况却截然相反。


Indeed, as early as a few years after the accident, data collected by Belarusan scientists flying helicopter surveys over the abandoned area showed rising numbers of wild boar, elk, and roe deer.	事实上，事故发生短短几年后，驾直升机空中调研的白俄罗斯科学家所搜集的废弃区域资料已经表明野猪、麋鹿和狍子的数量明显上升。


And, with the passage of time, the region’s wildlife population continued to grow, as animals made use of what people had left behind.	而且，因为动物利用了人类遗弃的设施，该地区的野生动物数量随着时间的推移不断增加。


Crops, gardens, and orchards provided abundant food supplies.	作物、菜园和果园提供了丰富的食物。


Abandoned houses and farm buildings offered ready-made nests and dens.	废弃的房屋和农舍提供了现成的窝巢。


By 1993, the number of wild boar had increased sixfold, before halving due to a disease outbreak and predation from the rapidly growing wolf population.	到1993年，野猪的数量已经增长了六倍，但之后又因疾病爆发和被快速增长的狼群捕食而减少到三倍左右。


Our research shows that the number of large mammals at Chernobyl is similar to that in uncontaminated nature reserves in Belarus – except for wolves, which are far more numerous in the area around the reactor.	我们的研究显示切尔诺贝利的大型哺乳动物数量与未经污染的白俄罗斯自然保护区差不多——但狼群除外，这些狼大多生活在反应堆的四周。


The area is also home to lynx and even a few brown bears.	该地区还发现了山猫甚至是几头棕熊。


Nor do the population data show any link between radiation levels and mammal densities; the number of mammals in the most contaminated parts of the zone is similar to that in the least contaminated parts.	此外并未发现辐射水平和哺乳动物密度之间有任何联系； 污染最严重地区的哺乳动物数量和污染最轻的地方相差不多。


To be sure, the fact that animals are thriving at Chernobyl does not mean that radiation is good for wildlife.	可以肯定，切尔诺贝利地区动物兴旺并不代表辐射有利于野生动物。


Radiation does cause DNA damage, and at current levels we cannot rule out some effects on the reproduction of individual animals.	辐射的确会导致DNA损伤，而且到目前为止对个别动物生殖的影响也不能完全排除。


But a comparison with what happened outside the affected area is instructive.	但与受影响区域之外的对比却给人启示良多。


Whatever damage radiation has wrought, human habitation has caused far greater destruction.	无论辐射造成的伤害有多大，都比不上人类居住。


Indeed, in areas outside the zone or nature reserves, populations of elk and wild boar underwent steep declines, as major socioeconomic changes after the fall of the Soviet Union worsened rural poverty and crippled wildlife management.	事实上，在无人区和自然保护区之外，因为苏联解体后的重大社会经济变化加剧了农村贫困并破坏了野生动物管理，麋鹿和野猪种群出现了大幅减少的势头。


The lesson from Chernobyl is that if nature is to thrive, it must be given space – from us.	切尔诺贝利灾难的教训是人类必须要留出空间才能让自然兴旺繁荣。


The primary causes behind declining global biodiversity include habitat loss and fragmentation as a result of human activity.	全球生物多样性下降的主要原因是人类活动造成的栖息地丧失和碎片化。


Even some of our most well-meaning environmental efforts, such as the fight against climate change, have led to the expansion of the human presence into previously untouched wilderness.	就连应对气候变化等某些最善意的环保工作都导致向此前人迹罕至的旷野涉足。


Demand for biofuels, for example, has been linked to deforestation.	比方说人们砍伐森林来满足对生物燃料的需求。


It may also be time we consider embracing high-tech – even genetically modified – agriculture to provide the food we need on smaller areas of land, leaving more space for wildlife.	我们可能应当采用高科技——甚至是转基因——农业，用较小的土地来满足人类的粮食需求，进而留下更多空间给野生动物。


There are no easy solutions, of course, and all efforts to address the problem will be complicated by continuing rapid growth of the world’s human population.	当然不存在简单的解决办法，世界人口的快速增长会令一切解决问题的努力变得复杂。


But one thing is clear: we, as a species, need to think more carefully about our impact on the nonhuman animal population and begin to take better account of these effects in our economic and environmental policies.	但有一点十分清楚：那就是身为一个物种，我们必须认真思考对人以外的动物种群的影响，进而更好地制定我们的经济和环境政策。


Violence and Innovation	暴力与创新


ABU DHABI – In the 1949 British film The Third Man, the character Harry Lime observes that, during the Borgia family’s rule in Renaissance Italy, the country “had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed.	阿布扎比—在1949年的英国电影《第三个人》（The Third Man）中，哈里·莱姆（Harry Lime）观察到，文艺复兴时期博尔吉亚家族统治意大利时，意大利“有战争、恐怖、谋杀和流血。


But [it] produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance.”	但（它）产生了米开朗基罗、达芬奇和文艺复兴。


By contrast, he contends, Switzerland’s 500 years of democracy and peace produced little more than the cuckoo clock.	”他还说，相反，享受了500年民主和和平的瑞士除了布谷鸟钟什么都没有。


While the implication that innovation and creativity are born only of conflict is extreme – in fact, Switzerland is a world leader in innovation – Lime makes a crucial point.	由此暗示创新和创造力只能产生于冲突之中实属极端——事实上，瑞士乃世界创新领袖之一——但莱姆仍可以说一针见血。


Although peace, order, and political stability are widely perceived as essential prerequisites for invention, entrepreneurship, and economic development, there have been many exceptions to this rule – especially when it comes to creativity and innovation.	尽管和平、秩序和政治稳定被广泛认为是发明、企业家精神和经济发展的重要先决条件，但这一规则有着大量例外——特别是在创造力和创新方面。


The United States is consistently ranked among the world’s top ten countries for innovation, including by INSEAD’s Global Innovation Index.	美国一直身居欧洲工商管理学院（INSEAD）全球创新指数世界十强之列。


But, on the Global Peace Index, it is ranked 88th of 153 countries.	但是，在全球和平指数中，它只名列88（共有153个国家）。


Likewise, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands rank, respectively, fifth and sixth on the Innovation Index, but only 28th and 29th on the Peace Index.	类似地，英国和荷兰在创新指数中分别位居第五和第六，但在和平指数中只排在第28和第29。


Conversely, Bhutan is among the top 20 most peaceful nations, but does not even make it onto innovation indices.	反之，不丹是最和平的20个国家之一，但在创新指数中根本进不了榜。


Of course, crime, terrorism, conflict, and political instability severe enough to cause a total breakdown of law and order significantly impede creativity and innovation.	当然，犯罪、恐怖主义、冲突和严重到导致法律和秩序全面崩溃的政治动荡会极大地阻碍创造力和创新。


But some countries show strong resilience in the face of pervasive violence and volatility.	但一些国家表现出强大的抵御大规模暴力和动荡的能力。


For example, despite widespread violent crime, Mexico and South Africa have high levels of innovation (measured by patent filing and trademark registration).	比如，墨西哥和南非存在着普遍的暴力犯罪现象，但两国在创新榜上名列前茅（以专利申请和注册商标数量衡量）。


When terrorism indicators are taken into account, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, and Israel emerge as resilient innovators.	若考虑恐怖主义指标，黎巴嫩、土耳其、约旦和以色列堪称最坚韧创新国。


Just as peace and stability do not always lead to creativity and innovation, fighting and uncertainty do not necessarily deter it.	正如和平与稳定并不总是带来创造力和创新，战争和不确定性也并不总是阻碍创造力和创新。


Although peace, political stability, and civil order are important factors to consider when selecting a location for a large-scale foreign production or service operation, they are far less important when it comes to sourcing creativity and making the related investments.	尽管和平、政治稳定和文明秩序是选择大规模外国生产和服务运营地的重要考虑因素，但在提供创造力和相关投资方面，这些因素的重要性要低得多。


In particular, creative industries, such as animation, arts, design, and software – which are mostly based on individual skills and talent – tend to be more resilient to conflict than others.	特别是，动画、艺术、设计和软件等创新性产业——大多以个人能力和天赋为基础——相对更能适应冲突。


Given this, officials, investors, and business leaders in search of revolutionary ideas, cutting-edge solutions, and untapped talent should not allow turbulence in some societies, or tranquility in others, to influence their decisions excessively.	因此，寻找革命性思想、尖端解决方案和待开发人才的官员、投资者和商业领袖不应该因某些社会的动乱或其他社会的平静而过度影响他们的决策。


In fact, stepping out of one’s comfort zone may offer significant benefits.	事实上，跳出舒适域或许会带来极大的好处。


Some evidence suggests that the prevalence of uncertainty may boost competition, thereby sparking innovation.	有证据表明，大规模不确定性可以刺激竞争，从而启发创新。


Furthermore, social environments that are characterized by lower levels of consensus and higher levels of violence may be more likely than their more harmonious counterparts to catalyze radical innovation.	此外，共识程度低、暴力活动多的社会环境或许更有可能比叫和谐的社会更能催化根本性创新。


Lebanon’s experience supports this assessment.	黎巴嫩的经验支持这一论断。


Despite its long history of political violence, its creative industries are expanding.	尽管该国长期存在政治动荡，但其创新性产业仍在扩张。


According to a 2007 study of Lebanon’s copyright-based industries, conducted by the World Intellectual Property Organization, the main challenges facing the country’s software sector – an important part of its economy – include restricted markets, intense competition, a brain drain (loss of human capital), inadequate technology policy, a lack of government incentives, and rampant piracy.	世界知识产权组织的2007年黎巴嫩基于版权的产业研究表明，黎巴嫩软件业——其经济的重要组成部分——所面临的主要挑战包括受限的市场、激烈的竞争、人才流失（人力资本损失）、技术政策不充分、政府激励缺失和盗版横行。


Violence is conspicuously absent from the list.	暴力完全没有出现在这份挑战清单上。


To be sure, violence is always a problem.	诚然，暴力永远是个问题。


But countries like Lebanon have become resistant to its effects – for example, by developing creative industries – diminishing its negative impact on economic, social, and intellectual development.	但黎巴嫩等国家已能抵抗暴力的影响——比如通过创新性产业——减少其对经济、社会和智识发展的消极冲击。


In 2005, 10% of all new businesses in Lebanon were in the creative sector, and the copyright-based industries contributed 4.75% of GDP.	2005年，10%的黎巴嫩新企业属于创造性行业，基于版权的产业贡献了GDP的4. 75%。


Similarly, despite high levels of political violence, Nigeria produces more than 1,000 films annually.	类似地，尽管政治极为动荡，但尼日利亚每年仍能产出1000多部电影。


Indeed, Nigeria’s film industry is the world’s third largest, after the US and India, and is second only to oil production in terms of its economic significance to the country.	事实上，尼日利亚的电影业已是世界第三，仅次于美国和印度，对该国的经济影响力位居第二，仅次于石油部门。


According to a 2010 United Nations report on the creative economy, global trade in creative goods grew at an annual rate of 14% from 2002 to 2008.	根据2010年联合国创新型经济报告，2002—2008年，创新性商品对的全球贸易以每年14%的速度增长。


Meanwhile, exports of such goods from developing countries, which tend to experience more violence, grew at a rate of 13.5%, reaching $176 billion (43% of total world trade in creative industries) in 2008.	与此同时，来自发展中国家——这类国家暴力事件更多——的创新性商品出口年增长率为13. 5%，2008年出口总额达到了1760亿美元（占全世界创新性产业贸易总量的43%）。


Although overall global trade declined by 12% that year, trade in creative goods and services continued to expand.	尽管同年全球总贸易额下跌了12%，创新性产品和服务的贸易量仍在扩大。


This has significant implications for political and business leaders – especially in turbulent regions like the Middle East.	这对于政治和商业领袖影响巨大——特别是对中东等动荡地区。


In order to bolster economic growth and innovation amid conflict and volatility, policymakers and investors should focus on building the creative industries.	为了在冲突和动荡中提振经济增长和创新，决策者和投资者应该注意打造创新型产业。


The resilience and adaptability that they provide are crucial to supporting long-term economic growth and job creation – no matter what the future brings.	创新型产业的韧性和适应力对支持长期经济增长和就业创造至关重要，不管未来形势如何。


Are Services the New Manufactures?	服务业是新制造业吗？


PRINCETON – The global discussion about growth in the developing world has taken a sharp turn recently.	普林斯顿—最近，关于发展中世界增长的全球讨论发生了极大的变化。


The hype and excitement of recent years over the prospect of rapid catch-up with the advanced economies have evaporated.	近几年来对快速赶超发达经济体的大肆宣传和兴奋不见了踪影。


Few serious analysts still believe that the spectacular economic convergence experienced by Asian countries, and less spectacularly by most Latin American and African countries, will be sustained in the decades ahead.	很少有严肃的分析师仍然相信亚洲国家所经历的波澜壮阔的经济趋同和大部分拉美和非洲国家所经历的不那么波澜壮阔的趋同会在未来几十年中继续发生。


The low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid globalization, and post-Cold War stability that underpinned this extraordinary period are unlikely to persist.	作为这一卓越时代的基础的低利率、高商品价格、快速全球化以及冷战后稳定不可能持续下去。


A second realization has sunk in: Developing countries need a new growth model.	于是就产生了第二个认识：发展中国家需要新的增长模式。


The problem is not just that they need to wean themselves from their reliance on fickle capital inflows and commodity booms, which have often left them vulnerable to shocks and prone to crises.	问题不仅在于它们需要摆脱对瞬息万变、常常让它们在冲击和危机面前不堪一击的资本流入和商品繁荣的依赖。


More important, export-oriented industrialization, history’s most certain path to riches, may have run its course.	更重要的是，历史上最笃定的致富之路——出口导向型工业化可能已经走到了尽头。


Ever since the Industrial Revolution, manufacturing has been the key to rapid economic growth.	自工业革命依赖，制造业一直是快速经济增长的秘诀。


The countries that caught up with and eventually surpassed Britain, such as Germany, the United States, and Japan, all did so by building up their manufacturing industries.	赶超并最终超越英国的德国、美国和日本等国家无不是通过构建自己的制造业实现的。


Following the Second World War, there were two waves of rapid economic convergence: one in the European periphery during the 1950s and 1960s, and another in East Asia since the 1960s.	第二次世界大战后出现过两次快速经济趋同风潮：一是20世纪五六十年代的欧洲外围； 二是20世纪60年代以来的东亚。


Both were based on industrial manufacturing.	这两次经济趋同风潮均以工业制造为基础。


China, which has emerged as the archetype of this growth strategy since the 1970s, traveled a well-worn path.	而在20世纪70年代后成为这一增长战略榜样的中国也是走的这条老路。


But manufacturing today is not what it used to be.	但今天的制造业已非昔日的制造业。


It has become much more capital- and skill-intensive, with greatly diminished potential to absorb large amounts of labor from the countryside.	今天的制造业资本密集和技能密集程度远远更高，因此吸收大量农村劳动力的潜力大大缩小了。


While global supply chains have facilitated entry into manufacturing, they have also reduced the gains in terms of value added that accrue at home.	全球供应链方便了进入制造业，但也降低了国内增加值积累收益。


Many traditional industries, such as textiles and steel, are likely to face shrinking global markets and over-capacity, driven by demand shifts and environmental concerns.	拜需求变化和环境顾虑所赐，纺织业和钢铁业等许多传统行业可能面临不断收缩的全球市场和产能过剩。


And one downside of China’s success is that many other countries are finding it much harder to establish more than a niche in manufacturing.	而中国的成功的一个弊端是其他许多国家难以建立多个制造业利基。


As a consequence, developing countries are starting to de-industrialize and become more dependent on services at much lower levels of income than has been the pattern for developed countries – a phenomenon that I have called premature de-industrialization.	结果，发展中国家开始去工业化，在收入比发达国家低得多的水平上就开始依赖服务业——我把这一现象称为过早去工业化。


Can service industries play the role that manufacturing did in the past?	服务业能扮演制造业过去所扮演的角色吗？


Already, services contribute the bulk of GDP in developing countries, even in low-income countries where agriculture has traditionally played a big part.	服务业贡献了发展中国家GDP的大部分，即使是在传统上主要依靠农业贡献GDP的低收入国家。


Young workers who leave the farm for the cities are increasingly absorbed into urban services jobs instead of manufacturing.	离开田间地头来到城市的年轻工人日益被城市服务业而非制造业岗位吸收。


And international trade in services has tended to expand more rapidly than trade in goods.	国际服务贸易扩张也要快于商品贸易。


Among the optimists are Ejaz Ghani and Stephen D. O’Connell of the World Bank.	世界银行的加尼（Ejaz Ghani）和奥康奈尔（Stephen D.


In a recent paper, they argue that service industries could serve as a growth escalator, the role traditionally assumed by manufacturing.	O’Connell）相当乐观，在最新论文中，他们指出服务业可以成为增长的自动扶梯，而在传统上，扮演这一角色的是制造业。


In particular, they show that services have exhibited “unconditional convergence” in productivity recently.	特别是，他们指出，最近服务业表现出生产率的“无条件趋同”。


That is, countries furthest away from the global frontier of labor productivity have seen the fastest productivity growth in services.	也就是说，劳动生产率最落后的国家，服务生产率增长最快。


This would be very good news, but there are reasons to be wary.	这是天大的好消息，但我们有理由保持谨慎。


The Ghani-O’Connell evidence includes data starting in the early 1990s, during which developing countries were experiencing economy-wide convergence, boosted by capital inflows and commodity windfalls.	加尼-奥康奈尔的证据包括始于20世纪90年代初的数据，此间发展中国家正在经历全经济趋同，其背后的推动历史资本流入和商品繁荣。


It is unclear whether their conclusions extend to other periods.	他们的结论是否能推广到其他时期尚不清楚。


Two things make services different from manufacturing.	两个因素决定了服务业和制造业的不同。


First, while some segments of services are tradable and are becoming more important in global commerce, these typically are highly skill-intensive sectors that employ comparatively few ordinary workers.	首先，尽管某些服务业细分领域是可贸易的，并且在全球商业中日益重要，但这些领域往往是高度技能密集部门，只需要极少普通工人。


Banking, finance, insurance, and other business services, along with information and communications technology (ICT), are all high-productivity activities that pay high wages.	银行、金融、保险和其他商业服务业，以及信息和通信技术行业都属于高科技的高薪行业。


They could act as growth escalators in economies where the work force is adequately trained.	它们可以在劳动力得到充分训练的经济体起到增长自动扶梯的作用。


But developing economies typically have predominantly low-skilled labor forces.	但发展中经济体往往以低技能劳动力为主。


In such economies, tradable services cannot absorb more than a fraction of the labor supply.	在这些经济体中，可贸易服务吸收不了多少劳动力供给。


That is why, for all of its success, the ICT sector in India has not been a primary driver of economic growth.	正因如此，尽管印度的信息和通信技术部门大获成功，但却始终无法成为经济增长的主要推动力。


By contrast, traditional manufacturing could offer a large number of jobs to workers straight off the farm, at productivity levels three to four times that in agriculture.	相反，传统制造业可以为大量刚刚走出田间的工人提供现成的、生产率水平比农业高两三倍的工作岗位。


In today’s developing countries, the bulk of excess labor is absorbed in non-tradable services operating at very low levels of productivity, in activities such as retail trade and housework.	在今天的发展中国家，大部分过剩劳动力被零售贸易和家政等不可贸易服务业吸收，这些部门生产率水平很低。


In principle, many of these activities could benefit from better technologies, improved organization, and greater formalization.	理论上，这些活动中有不少可以从更先进的科技、改善的组织和更高的形式化程度中获益。


But here the second difference between services and manufacturing comes into play.	但在这里，服务业和制造业的第二个不同登场了。


Partial productivity gains in non-tradable activities are ultimately self-limiting, because individual service activities cannot expand without turning their terms of trade against themselves – pushing down their own prices (and profitability).	不可贸易活动的局部生产率提高最终会自我限制，因为个体服务活动不可能无限制地扩张而不产生对本身不利的贸易条件——即压低自身价格（以及利润）。


In manufacturing, small developing countries could thrive on the basis of a few export successes and diversify sequentially through time – t-shirts now, followed by the assembly of televisions and microwave ovens, and on up the chain of skill and value.	在制造业，发展中小国可以凭借少数出口成功和循序渐进的多样化实现繁荣——先生产衬衫，然后组装电视机和微波炉，最后转移到技能和价值链的高端。


By contrast, in services, where market size is limited by domestic demand, continued success requires complementary and simultaneous gains in productivity in the rest of the economy.	相反，在制造业，市场规模受内需限制，持续的成功需要经济其余部门同时出现互补性生产率提高。


Focusing on a few sectors yields no quick winning opportunities.	专注于少数部门无法产生快速的繁荣机会。


Growth therefore must rely on the much slower accumulation of economy-wide capabilities in the form of human capital and institutions.	因此，增长不得不依赖速度缓慢得多的全经济产能——人力资本和制度的积累。


So I remain skeptical that a services-led model can deliver rapid growth and good jobs in the way that manufacturing once did.	因此，我对服务业推动模式是否能够带来制造业曾经带来的快速增长和好岗位仍然表示怀疑。


Even if the technological optimists are right, it is difficult to see how that will enable developing countries to sustain the kind of growth they experienced over the last couple of decades.	即使技术乐观派是对的，也难以看出这是否能让发展中国家保持过去几十年来所经历的快速增长。


A “Reset” Button for Europe’s Backyard	“重启”与欧洲后院各国的关系


STOCKHOLM – One year after the war in Georgia of last August, pushing the “reset” button on diplomatic relations is a popular endeavor nowadays.	斯德哥尔摩——按下外交关系“重启”按钮成了今天一种时髦的做法。


President Barack Obama recently journeyed to Moscow in order to “reset” strained United States-Russian ties.	巴拉克·奥巴马总统刚刚出访莫斯科，“重启”紧张的美俄关系。


The European Union, though not in need of a “reset” because of strained ties with its eastern neighbors, is involved in a deep strategic reconstruction of those relations.	尽管欧盟与东部邻国间的关系还没有紧张到需要“重启”的程度，但深层次的战略重建也在悄然进行中。


When the EU launched its new “Eastern Partnership” in May, the purpose was to promote further integration with the Union’s six immediate eastern neighbors – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.	欧盟在五月启动新的“东部伙伴计划”，目的是促成与亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、白俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦和乌克兰等六大东部邻国的进一步融合。


The global financial crisis had made an updated and strengthened policy for the EU’s eastern neighborhood an urgent need.	在全球金融危机的背景下，迫切需要制定与欧盟东部邻国更新、也更有力的政策。


Equally important was the fact that all the countries concerned expressed an ambition to move closer to the EU.	同样重要的是，所有相关国家都表达了向欧盟靠拢的愿望。


The Eastern Partnership – originating from a Polish/Swedish initiative – offers to the six countries a substantial upgrading and deepening of relations with the EU in key areas.	东部伙伴计划起源于一次波兰/瑞典联合行动，该计划邀请六国在关键领域中深化和加强与欧盟的合作。


In trade and economic relations, it clearly sets out the objective of establishing deep and comprehensive free-trade areas between the EU and the partner countries.	在贸易和经济关系领域，它明确提出了在欧盟和各伙伴国间建立全面深入自由贸易区的目标。


It confirms full visa liberalization as a long-term goal (with visa facilitation agreements in the meantime), promises enhanced cooperation on energy security, diversification, and efficiency, and comes with dedicated programs and projects to help the neighbors in their integration and reform efforts in all these areas.	它在远期致力于实现全面签证自由化（同时还签订了签证促进协议），承诺加强在能源安全、多样化和效率方面的合作，并制定了专门的计划和项目，协助东部邻国在上述领域的融合和改革计划。


Sweden’s assumption of the EU Presidency this month should help these efforts.	瑞典本月担任欧盟轮值主席有助于推动这项计划。


However, it comes at a time when the Union’s eastern neighborhood faces severe challenges, with the financial and economic crisis hitting many of the partner countries hard.	但此时正值欧盟东部邻国面临严重挑战的时刻，很多伙伴国都遭受了金融和经济危机的沉重打击。


Ukraine suffers from the sharp drop in global demand and trade, severely undermining its steel industry.	全球需求和贸易的急剧下降打击了乌克兰，严重破坏了该国的钢铁工业。


Georgia’s economic success has been largely dependent on direct foreign investment, for which there is hardly any appetite today.	格鲁吉亚的经济成就在很大程度上得益于直接外资，但今天直接外资已经没有了进一步投资的胃口。


Partner countries that are less integrated into the global market, such as Moldova, have seen the crisis arrive more slowly, but the real effect might be equally as bad, and they are likely to recover more slowly.	在与全球市场融合度较低的伙伴国，比如摩尔多瓦，危机的到来相对缓慢，但实际效果却可能同样糟糕，而且它们可能会更晚复苏。


The Eastern Partnership does not offer any quick remedies to the crisis.	东部伙伴关系并不能迅速弥补危机造成的后果。


But it can provide a political framework and institution-building support to improve the deficiencies that made these countries so vulnerable to the crisis: imperfect market economies, weak state institutions, and continued corruption.	但它却能提供政治框架和制度建设支持，逐步改善导致这些国家易受危机影响的弱点：不完善的市场经济、软弱无力的国家体制和持续腐败。


The Eastern Partnership’s offer of deep integration with the EU in the areas such as trade and energy carries with it considerable transformational power.	东部伙伴关系在贸易和能源等领域与欧盟深层次融合的提议伴随着极大的转型力量。


The other type of crisis that most of the partner countries are enduring is political.	绝大多数伙伴国也在经历着一场政治危机。


In most of these countries, democratic development has not yet reached a point where a change in government is a routine part of political life and can take place without risking the country’s stability.	在多数国家中，民主发展还没有达到让政府改变成为政治生活中的常规组成部分、可以在不威胁国家稳定的情况下悄然进行的程度。


The Eastern Partnership is based on the profound values of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.	民主价值观、人权和法治是东部伙伴关系赖以建立的基础。


Political association with the EU, and the process of integration under this Partnership, will promote reforms in these key areas.	与欧盟的政治结合，以及在伙伴关系下的融合进程将推动上述关键领域的改革。


The Swedish EU Presidency will concentrate on starting up the concrete work – the nuts and bolts – of the Partnership.	瑞典任欧盟轮值主席将启动具体工作——也就是伙伴关系的基本要素。


The establishment of “Comprehensive Institution-Building Programs,” designed to support reform of key institutions in each partner country, should take place before the year’s end.	旨在支持各伙伴国关键制度改革的“综合制度建设计划”应在年底前正式启动。


Some flagship initiatives proposed by the European Commission will finally see the light of day as well, and new projects and initiatives are likely to be developed.	欧盟委员会拟议中的某些旗舰计划也将最终问世，同时有可能制定新的项目和计划。


Here, Sweden will attach particular importance to energy efficiency programs, which will serve not only the purposes of enhancing energy security and reducing costs, but will also be an important contribution to the fight against climate change.	瑞典将特别关注能效计划，因为类似计划不仅能改善能源安全，降低成本，而且能为应对气候变化做出重要贡献。


The Swedish Presidency, together with the European Commission, intends to organize the first meeting of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum this autumn.	轮值主席瑞典和欧盟委员会一道，力图在今年秋组织召开东部伙伴关系民主社会论坛的首次会议。


We hope to see the start of parliamentary cooperation, as well as exchanges between local and regional authorities of the thirty-three EU and partner countries.	我们希望启动议会合作，以及三十二个欧盟及伙伴国地方和区域当局的合作。


At the end of the year, a meeting of EU foreign ministers and their colleagues from the six partners will assess the progress made so far and give guidance on the way ahead.	今年年底，欧盟各国及六大伙伴国外长会议将评估迄今为止取得的进展，并进一步指导今后的行动。


The Eastern Partnership is about EU integration, about the six countries moving closer to the EU’s values, legislation, and ways of working, and about the EU being there to support and help this convergence.	东部伙伴关系旨在推动欧盟融合，让六国贴近欧盟的价值观、法律和工作方式，并让欧盟支持和协助这种融合。


In Russia, there is a perception that is sometimes fostered which suggests that the Partnership is directed against it.	俄国有时会出现这样的看法，认为这种合作关系是与它作对。


But this, of course, is untrue.	但这当然是没有依据的。


On the contrary, Russia, like Turkey, will be welcome to take part in relevant activities within the Partnership’s multilateral dimensions.	相反，和土耳其一样，我们也欢迎俄国参与伙伴关系多边领域的相关活动。


The Eastern Partnership is not an answer to all the problems and difficulties that the six partners are facing.	东部伙伴关系无法解决六大伙伴国所面临的所有问题和困难。


Nevertheless, it does represent a clear commitment by the EU to lend its political and economic support to their transition and reform – a process that should bring prosperity and stability to the whole region.	但它的确代表了欧盟从政治经济各个领域支持其转型和改革的明确承诺——这一进程理应为整个地区带来繁荣和稳定。


Are the Saudis Fanatics?	沙特人到底算不算狂热份子？


Terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia have led many to question not only the ruling House of Saud's prospects for survival, but also whether the kingdom is fundamentally dysfunctional and destructive.	恐怖袭击不仅让很多人对沙特政府的生存前景产生了疑虑，甚至催生了这样的观点：沙特王国本身是否运转不良，成了一个破坏性的国家。


Somehow, it seems, Saudi society has produced a stream of violent fanaticism that draws its inspiration from extreme religious orthodoxy.	看起来，暴力狂热的逆流似乎在沙特社会中蔓延，而这股逆流的根源就是极端正统的宗教观念。


The fact that 15 of the 19 hijackers in the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States were Saudis crystallized a long-held view of the kingdom as a bastion of authoritarianism and intolerance.	2001年9月11日袭击美国的19名劫机者中，居然有15名来自沙特。 这一事实使长久以来就存在的一种看法渐趋明朗：即沙特是独裁主义和极端观点的大本营。


In some respects, this perception is accurate, but it cannot be applied to the broad Saudi public.	某种程度上，上述观点并没有说错，但用来形容广大的沙特公众却并不合适。


On the contrary, it would be a grave mistake to assume that fanatical Islamism fully defines Saudi attitudes toward religion.	恰恰相反，如果认为伊斯兰狂热主义界定了沙特宗教观念的全部内涵，那就犯下了极为严重的错误。


Between 2001 and 2003, I was part of a team that undertook an extensive survey of values in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and Jordan.	2001到2003年间，我曾作为调研小组的一员，广泛调查了沙特阿拉伯、埃及、伊朗和约旦等国的价值观。


Our results provide a surprisingly nuanced picture of Saudi attitudes.	调查的结果显示：沙特人的观点与人们的传统看法间有着很大的不同。


Compared to respondents in the other Middle Eastern countries, Saudis were less religious overall, and their attitudes toward democracy and arranged marriage also indicate a moderate undercurrent.	与其它中东国家的答卷者相比，沙特人总体上没那么信奉宗教，他们对民主和包办婚姻的看法也显示出一股涌动的暗流。


To be sure, in all four countries, religiosity is widespread, with more than 90% of respondents collectively reporting that they believe in God, in life after death, and in heaven and hell.	可以肯定的是，所有四个国家的宗教信仰都十分普遍，90%以上的受试者认为自己信奉神明、相信后世生活、也相信天堂和地狱。


But the Saudis appear to be less religious than their fellow Muslims.	但和其它穆斯林伙伴相比，沙特人似乎并没有那么虔诚。


Sixty-two percent of Saudis described themselves as religious, compared with 82% of Iranians, 85% of Jordanians, and 98% of Egyptians.	62%的沙特人认为自己笃信神明，而在伊朗、约旦和埃及，这一比率分别为82%、85%和98%。


Americans also appear to be far more religious than Saudis, with 81% describing themselves that way.	美国人好像也比沙特人虔诚得多，有81%的受试者都这么描述自己。


Some of this variation may be explained by cross-national differences regarding what it means to be religious. For example, Americans may define religiosity differently than Middle Easterners, with perhaps a weaker attachment to religious beliefs than is true in Islamic countries.	有些不同源于不同国家对虔诚的不同理解，像美国人对虔诚的看法可能与中东人不同，他们并不像伊斯兰信徒那样强调对宗教的信仰。


This might also account in part for the differences between Muslim countries.	上述原因也可以部分解释穆斯林国家之间的不同。


But the gap in self-defined religiosity between Saudis, on the one hand, and Iranians, Jordanians, and Egyptians, on the other, is so great that it challenges the prevalent perception of Saudi Arabia as a highly conservative and religious society.	但沙特人与伊朗人、约旦人和埃及人之间自我描述的虔诚程度相差如此之大，以致于对沙特阿拉伯作为高度保守和宗教社会的传统看法都构成了挑战。


Indeed, actions speak louder than words: only 28% of Saudis said that they participate in weekly religious services, compared to 27% of Iranians, 44% of Jordanians, 42% of Egyptians, and 45% of Americans.	实际上，听其言不如观其行：只有28%的沙特人说自己参加每周的宗教仪式，而在伊朗、约旦和埃及，这一比率分别达到了27%、44%和42%，美国人的比例则是45%。


These findings, while running contrary to popular perceptions of Saudi culture, are less startling than they appear.	上述发现虽然与人们对沙特文化的普遍印象大相庭径，但实际结果却并不那么令人惊讶。


Sociologists of religion have long argued that in a monolithic religious environment, or when religious institutions are closely tied to the state, the overall religiosity of the public declines.	宗教社会学者早就指出：在奉行单一宗教、或宗教机构与国家联系非常紧密的环境里，公众的总体虔诚度会有所下降。


It makes sense to think that when state authorities enforce strict codes of behavior, people tend to rebel and move away from officially sanctioned religious institutions.	因此，有人认为由于国家当局执行了严格的行为准则，让人们产生了逆反心理，进而不再支持官方认可的宗教机构，这种看法也有它自己的道理。


Little wonder, then, that Egyptians and Jordanians, who live in countries where the state does not enforce piety, are more religious than Iranians or Saudis, who must cope with local "virtue" police backed by the state.	因此，生活在不强制信奉宗教国度里的埃及人和约旦人，比不得不小心提防有国家撑腰的"操守警察"的沙特人或伊朗人，总的来讲表现出更多的虔诚，也没有什么值得大惊小怪的。


Even on marriage, many Saudis expressed surprisingly liberal views.	即便在婚姻问题上，很多沙特人的观点之开放也令人震惊。


Respondents were nearly evenly split on the question of arranged marriages, with half supporting the idea that marriage should be based on parental consent, while 48% preferred love as the basis of matrimony.	包办婚姻问题上，受试者几乎是一半一半，半数人认为婚姻理应遵从父母之命，另外48%则认为爱情才是婚姻的基础。


Given entrenched gender segregation and paternal dominance, this finding appears to reveal a strong desire for greater individual choice in what has traditionally been a family-driven decision.	在顽固的性别隔离和父权至上的环境下，这项发现似乎显示了传统的家庭决策中，对更多个人自由的非常强烈的向往。


Finally, the Saudis turn out to be strong supporters of democracy, once again contradicting a popular image of Saudi conservatism.	最后，结果还显示沙特人强烈支持民主，这再次与沙特保守主义的普遍看法形成了冲突。


Of the Saudis polled, 58% considered democracy the best form of government, 23% disagreed, and 18% did not express an opinion.	在被调查的沙特人中，58%认为民主是政府的最佳形式，23%不同意这样的观点，还有18%的人没表明态度。


Majority support for democracy in a country with no prior secular and nationalist history seems counter-intuitive.	在沙特这样一个缺乏现实和历史背景的国家，民主获得了大多数人的支持似乎有点违背常识。


In fact, support for democracy corresponds with a number of other liberal attitudes that we found in Saudi Arabia.	但事实上，支持民主与我们在沙特找到的其它几种自由观点非常吻合。


Supporters of democracy tend to be less religious, more secular, more tolerant of others, more critical of public-sector performance, and more concerned with Western cultural invasion.	民主支持者没有那么笃信宗教、更能够融入世俗，也更能够容忍他人。 他们对公共部门的表现更为挑剔，对西方文化的入侵也给予了更多的关注。


Beyond the survey data, history has shown that liberal ideas become more popular when a despotic monarch governs people in alliance with a religious establishment.	除调查数据外，历史经验还显示：当专制君主与宗教设施联手统治时，自由的意愿会变得更为强烈。


A strong current of liberalism appeared in the late nineteenth century in Ottoman Syria in response to the religious despotism of Sultan Abdulhamid.	在奥斯曼叙利亚帝国，苏丹阿布都哈米特的宗教专制使19世纪后期出现了强烈的自由主义思潮。


At the same time, an anti-clerical, secular movement on behalf of constitutionalism appeared in Iran - a reaction to the absolutist alliance between the Quajar Shahs and the religious establishment.	与此同时，代表立宪主义的反神职世俗运动也在伊朗愈演愈烈－这项运动是对伊朗王Quajar和宗教机构专制主义联合的有力回击��


In view of the similarities between those historical precedents and current conditions in Saudi Arabia, we ought not to rule out the possibility of reform.	有了与沙特阿拉伯目前状况十分相似的历史先例，我们无法排除改革的可能。


Now survey data, too, suggest that Saudis may well begin demanding a more transparent politics and a less interventionist religion.	现在，调查结果也表明：沙特人很可能开始要求更为透明的政治和干涉性不那么强的宗教。


Are US Middle-Class Incomes Really Stagnating?	美国中产阶级收入真的在停滞吗？


CAMBRIDGE – The challenge of raising the incomes of middle-class families has emerged as an important focus of the presidential election campaign in the United States.	美国剑桥—提高中产阶级家庭收入的挑战已成为美国总统选战的重要焦点。


Everyone agrees that incomes at the top have surged ahead in recent decades, helped by soaring rewards for those with a high-tech education and rising share prices.	所有人都同意，得益于高科技教育和股价攀升带来的巨大收益，顶层人群的收入几十年来可谓狂飙突进。


And there is general support for improving programs – such as food stamps and means-tested retiree benefits – that help those who would otherwise be poor.	改进帮助那些陷入贫穷之人的计划——如食品券和基于经济调查的退休金——也得到了总体支持。


But the public debate is largely about how to help the more numerous (and politically more important) middle class.	但公共争论的重点集中在如何帮助数量更加庞大（在政治上也更加重要）的中产阶级。


Here, much can be done by improving existing government programs: expanding market-relevant training, increasing opportunities for married women to join or rejoin the labor force, reducing the penalties in Social Security rules for continued employment by older workers, and changing tax rules in ways that will increase productivity and wages.	在这方面，改进现有政府计划可以带来很大的助益：扩大贴近市场的培训、增加已婚妇女加入或回归劳动力大军的机会、降低社会保障规则中对继续聘用年长工人的惩罚条款、改变税收规则以提高生产率和工资等。


But, while strengthening such programs should be a high priority, we should not lose sight of how well middle-income families have actually done over the past few decades.	但是，尽管加强这些计划应该作为重点，但也不能忽视中产阶级家庭在过去几十年中的实际表现。


Unfortunately, the political debate is distorted by misleading statistics that grossly understate these gains.	不幸的是，政治争论被误导性的统计数字所扭曲，这些数字从总体上低估了中产阶级家庭的得益。


For example, it is frequently said that the average household income has risen only slightly, or not at all, for the past few decades.	比如，人们常说，过去几十年来平均家庭收入增长十分缓慢（甚至停滞不前）。


Some US Census figures seem to support that conclusion.	一些美国人口普查数字似乎支持这一结论。


But more accurate government statistics imply that the real incomes of those at the middle of the income distribution have increased about 50% since 1980.	但更准确的政府数据表明，位于收入分布中端的家庭的实际收入自1980年以来增加了大约50%。


And a more appropriate adjustment for changes in the cost of living implies a substantially greater gain.	如果针对生活成本进行更合适的调整，那么中产阶级的的收益还会大大提高。


The US Census Bureau estimates the money income that households receive from all sources and identifies the income level that divides the top and bottom halves of the distribution.	美国人口普查局测算家庭所有来源的总货币收入，并确定区别收入分布前50%和后50%的分界线。


This is the median household income.	这就是中位家庭收入。


To compare median household incomes over time, the authorities divide these annual dollar values by the consumer price index to create annual real median household incomes.	为了比较不同时间的中位家庭收入，当局将这些年收入的美元价值除以消费物价指数，得到实际中位家庭收入。


The resulting numbers imply that the cumulative increase from 1984 through 2013 was less than 10%, equivalent to less than 0.3% per year.	这样获得的数字表明，从1984年到2013年的收入累计增长还不到10%，相当于每年增长不到0. 3%。


Any adult who was alive in the US during these three decades realizes that this number grossly understates the gains of the typical household.	任何在此期间内生活在美国的成年人都会认识到，这个数字总体低估了普通家庭的收益。


One indication that something is wrong with this figure is that the government also estimates that real hourly compensation of employees in the non-farm business sector rose 39% from 1985 to 2015.	表明这一数字存在问题的一个指标是政府还估算非农商业部门雇员实际时薪从1985年到2015年提高了39%。


The official Census estimate suffers from three important problems.	官方人口普查测算存在三个重要问题。


For starters, it fails to recognize the changing composition of the population; the household of today is quite different from the household of 30 years ago.	首先，它没有认识到人口组成的改变； 今天的家庭与30年前的家庭区别很大。


Moreover, the Census Bureau’s estimate of income is too narrow, given that middle-income families have received increasing government transfers while benefiting from lower income-tax rates.	此外，人口普查局的收入测算口径过窄，中产阶级家庭不但收到越来越多的政府转移支付，也从所得税率的降低中获益。


Finally, the price index used by the Census Bureau fails to capture the important contributions of new products and product improvements to Americans’ standard of living.	最后，人口普查局所使用的物价指数没有体现新产品和产品改进对美国生活水平提高的重要贡献。


Consider first the changing nature of households.	先来看家庭组成的变化。


From 1980 to 2010, the share of “households” that consisted of just a single man or woman rose from 26% to 33%, while the share that contained married couples declined from 60% to 50%.	从1980年到2010年，有单身男女组成的“家庭”比例从26%增加到33%，而包括成婚夫妇的家庭比例从60%下降到50%。


When the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) conducted a detailed study of changes in household incomes from 1979 to 2011, it expanded the definition of income to include near-cash benefits like food stamps and in-kind benefits like health care.	无党派的国会预算办公室（CBO）在进行1979—2011年间家庭收入变化的详细研究时，将收入的定义进行了扩展，食品券等非现金福利和医疗等实物福利也被计算在内。


It also subtracted federal taxes, which fell from 19% of pretax income for middle-income households in 1980 to just 11.5% in 2010.	该研究还扣除了联邦税，而联邦税占中产阶级家庭税前收入的比例1980年为19%，2010年降至11. 5%。


To convert annual incomes to real incomes, the CBO used the price deflator for consumer expenditures, which many believe is better for this purpose than the consumer price index.	为了将年收入换算为实际收入，CBO使用了消费支出物价平减指数，许多人认为，在换算实际收入中，该指标优于消费物价指数。


The CBO also presented a separate analysis that adjusted for household size.	CBO还单独进行了经家庭规模调整的分析。


With the traditional definition of money income, the CBO found that real median household income rose by just 15% from 1980 to 2010, similar to the Census Bureau’s estimate.	从传统货币收入定义出发，CBO发现实际中位家庭收入在1980—2010年间仅仅增加了15%，与人口普查局的测算相当。


But when they expanded the definition of income to include benefits and subtracted taxes, they found that the median household’s real income rose by 45%.	但若把收入的定义扩大，将减税的收益包括进来时，CBO发现中位家庭实际收入增加了45%。


Adjusting for household size boosted this gain to 53%.	经家庭规模调整的分析将这一收益进一步提高到53%。