That is a mendacious and hypocritical cop-out.	这是一种虚情假意的逃避。


No one was saying, “We want to take control of our own borders so that we can have the same number of migrants.”	没有人会说，“我们只是想控制自己的边境，目的是让移民的数量和从前一样多。


And the cruder Brexiteers were explicit that they would deny entry to the rapists, criminals, and fast-breeding foreigners (Turks in particular) who would otherwise flood the land.	”而那些粗鲁些的英国退欧主义者则明确表示他们要让不加管制就会遍布英国各地的强奸犯、罪犯和拼命生小孩的外国人（尤其是土耳其人）进不了英国。


This was nasty, Trump-like stuff.	这种特朗普式的观点非常龌龊。


At best, the “Leave” campaign’s more intelligent leaders looked the other way when the slime was being stirred.	充其量，那些“脱欧”运动的高智商领导人在看到这样的沉渣泛起时也选择保持沉默。


But they knew what was happening.	但他们非常清楚发生了什么。


“Are you thinking what we’re thinking?” a 2005 Conservative poster campaign asked.	一次2005年保守党海报宣传活动曾经质问，“你和我们想的是否一样？


What some are thinking is that Brexit is a license to abuse men, women, and children who live and work here.	”有人认为脱欧是一份虐待生活和工作在这里的男人、女人和儿童的授权书。


And what they are doing has left a deep stain on our honor and national reputation.	他们的所作所为严重玷污了我们的荣耀和国家声誉。


Removing it will in some respects be the most important task for May, who expresses what surely is a sincere desire to unite the nation.	挽回声誉在某种程度上是梅最重要的任务，后者已经明确表达了团结国家的真诚愿望。


It won’t be easy.	完成这项任务绝非易事。


During the referendum campaign, nationalism aroused not only racist instincts, but also populist conspiracy theories that derided experts and the institutions that house them.	在公投运动中，民族主义不仅激发了种族主义者的本能，还激发了民粹主义阴谋论，嘲笑了信奉这些理论的专家和机构。


The integrity of government departments like the Treasury, the independent Bank of England, and our great universities came under attack, as did Parliament itself, partly because the overwhelming majority of MPs favored remaining in the EU.	财政部等政府部门、独立的英格兰银行和我们著名大学的完整性部分因为绝大多数议员赞成留欧而遭到围攻、同样遭到围攻的还有议会本身。


Yet it is these institutions, carefully built over decades and longer, which provide the backbone of our society.	但恰恰是这些耗时数十年、甚至更长时间精心打造的机构构成了我们社会的脊梁。


Edmund Burke, whose thought has profoundly shaped the UK’s political system, would have been appalled at the Brexiteers’ casual disregard for any sense of national continuity – and mortified by their willingness to put such a decision to a referendum.	思想曾深刻影响过英国政治体系的埃德蒙·伯克会震惊于脱欧群体对任何民族连贯性的随意无视——并且为他们将这样的决策诉诸公投的迫切意愿而蒙羞。


The cry from the “Leave” campaign was “We want our country back.”	“脱欧”运动的口号是“要重新夺回国家的控制权。


For the rest of us, the question remains: Will it still be a country with a tolerant and plural society, proud of its institutions and its constitutional traditions, and admired for its values throughout the world?	”对其他人来说问题仍然存在：这个国家是否依然奉行宽容和多元化、珍视其国内体系和宪法传统、并因为价值观而受到世界各国的尊重？ ”


Two Europes in One	二合一的欧洲


WASHINGTON, DC – Informal discussions on the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union are now underway.	华盛顿—如今，关于英国与欧盟的关系的讨论正在进行中。


With a referendum on the UK’s continued EU membership set to take place before the end of 2017, the talks are the first step toward negotiating changes which, EU leaders hope, will convince British voters to choose Europe.	关于英国是否保留欧盟资格的全民公决将在2017年年底前进行。 现在的讨论是变革谈判的第一步，欧盟领导人希望通过谈判说服英国选民选择欧洲。


And changes will certainly be needed.	而变革显然是必须的。


Indeed, as Prime Minister David Cameron is well aware, given the current dynamic of the UK’s relationship with the EU, British voters would undoubtedly choose to leave the EU.	事实上，英国首相卡梅伦很清楚，从目前英国与欧盟的关系动态看，英国选民毫无疑问将选择离开欧盟。


But Cameron also knows that he must handle the negotiations with care.	但卡梅伦也知道，他必须小心处理谈判事宜。


If he asks for more than the EU can accommodate, he will look as if he caved in.	如果他的要求超过了欧盟的妥协限度，就会搬起石头砸了自己的脚。


If he asks for too little, Britain’s Euroskeptics will have more fuel for their campaign against continued membership.	如果他要求过少，英国欧洲怀疑派反对保留成员资格运动就会如虎添翼。


Likewise, if EU leaders give Cameron too much – allowing the UK to reap the benefits of membership, without shouldering the same responsibilities as its partners – their populations could turn on them.	类似地，如果欧盟领导人向卡梅伦过多让步——允许英国沾欧盟成员资格的好处而不必和其他成员国承担一样的负担——那么欧洲人民可能会起来反对他们。


But if they give too little, they could lose the UK as a partner.	但如果他们让步过小，就可能失去英国。


Beyond such tactical matters, the UK and its European partners must address long-term issues relating to the changing shape of the eurozone.	除了这些策略性考虑，英国及其欧洲盟友必须还必须解决好与欧元区变动有关的长期问题。


The euro crisis has given rise to a consensus that, in order to function effectively, the eurozone must pursue further integration.	欧元危机产生了一个共识，即，为了有效运转，欧元区必须追求进一步一体化。


Specific proposals include a designated eurozone budget, increased fiscal-policy coordination among members, and a eurozone finance minister.	具体方案包括指定的欧元区预算、增加成员国之间的财政政策协调、成立欧元区财政部等。


For the UK, which opted out of the euro, this is a cause for concern, as it could leave the country on the sidelines of major decision-making processes – especially if the necessary shift toward weighted majority voting removes the need for unanimity in more areas.	对选择不加入欧元区的英国来说，这是一个值得担忧的问题，因为这会将英国排斥在重大决策过程之外——特别是如果转向加权多数投票的转变让大部分领域的问题不再需要一致通过的话。


Cameron already has pressed for an “emergency brake” mechanism to slow down decisions on issues that are important to the non-euro countries.	卡梅伦已经敦促采取“紧急刹车”以减缓对非欧元区国家重要问题的决定过程。


Clearly, the need for much greater eurozone integration must be balanced against some countries’ strong desire to preserve more national sovereignty than is feasible in the monetary union.	显然，一边是推进欧元区一体化的需要，另一边是一些国家强烈希望保留比可预见的货币联盟更多国家主权，这两方面需要平衡。


The best way to do this would be to divide Europe into two groups.	实现平衡的最佳办法是将欧洲分割成两个集团。


Inclusion in one or the other would be based not on the potential “speed” of integration, but on a country’s permanent (or at least long-term) decision on adopting the euro.	个体国家被划入那个集团不是基于一体化的潜在“速度”，而是该国是否决定永久（或至少长期）采用欧元。


Of course, to some extent, this is already the EU’s fundamental structure.	当然，从某种程度上讲，这已经是欧盟的基本结构。


But establishing this categorical division – beginning with, as the UK has requested, an explicit recognition that the EU is a multi-currency union – would allow for the creation of a decision-making framework that better protects both group’s interests.	但建立这一分类划分——按照英国的要求，从明确承认欧盟是一个多货币联盟开始——将使成立更好地保护两个集团的利益的决策框架成为可能。


The non-euro group – including Britain, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, and some other Eastern European countries – would continue to elect representatives to the European Parliament and participate fully in EU institutions. Meanwhile, the euro group would pursue far greater fiscal integration, in addition to their current cooperation.	非欧元集团——包括英国、丹麦、瑞典、波兰和其他一些东欧国家——将继续选择欧盟议会代表并充分参与欧盟机构，与此同时，欧元集团将在当前合作的基础上追求大大增强财政一体化。


To ensure democratic legitimacy and satisfy national constitutional courts (not least Germany’s), a second European parliament would have to be established to serve as the eurozone’s legislative branch.	为了确保民主合法性、让各国（而不仅仅是德国）宪法法院满意，必须成立第二欧洲议会作为欧元区的立法机构。


This new eurozone parliament could be formed either by a subset of members of the larger European Parliament, or by some combination of representatives from the European Parliament and national parliaments.	这一新的欧元区议会的形式可以是由欧洲议会成员组成的小子集，也可以由欧洲议会和各国议会代表联合组成。


The proposed finance minister, responsible for overseeing fiscal policy in the monetary union, would be responsible to the eurozone parliament.	计划中负责管理货币联盟财政政策的财政部长将向欧元区议会负责。


Full realization of this vision would require either a change to the existing European treaties or, more feasible, agreement by eurozone members on a new treaty, like the “fiscal compact” that entered into force in 2013.	充分实现这一愿景需要更改现有欧洲条约，或者更可行地，由欧元区成员国达成新条约，如2013年生效的“财政契约”。


In the meantime, Article 136 of the existing Treaty on the Functioning of the EU would allow for some preliminary steps, such as the designation of votes at the European Council that are reserved for eurozone countries only.	与此同时，现有欧盟运行条约第136条允许采取一些预备步骤，如安排只负责欧元区国家的欧洲理事会（European Council）选举。


Establishing “two Europes in one,” rather than a “two-speed Europe,” would allow Europe to organize itself in a lasting way.	建立“二合一的欧洲”而不是“两个速度的欧洲”将让欧洲能够持续地组织自己。


The more federal eurozone would be embedded in a larger union that cooperates on defense, foreign policy, climate-change measures, and migration policy.	更加联邦化的欧元区嵌在更大的防务、外交政策、气候变化措施和移民政策联盟中。


Free movement of European citizens within the EU would be upheld.	欧洲公民在欧盟内部的自由迁徙权利也将保留。


This system would allow those who do not wish to share monetary sovereignty, or engage in the kind of fiscal cooperation that must eventually come with it, to make that choice.	这套制度允许不愿分享货币主权或者参与最终必须参与的财政合作的国家做出选择。


At the same time, it would avoid the complications of having multiple Europes – an option that may be attractive to veteran Eurocrats from a purely functional perspective, but soon becomes hopelessly complicated.	与此同时，它也将避免存在多个欧洲所造成的复杂性——多个欧洲选项也许对纯粹从功能着眼的老牌欧洲官僚很有吸引力，但很快就变得无可救药地复杂。


A political system’s clarity and comprehensibility, together with its voluntary nature, are essential to democratic legitimacy.	政治制度的明确性和全面性，及其自愿性质，是民主合法性的关键。


Of course, this process will be long, and many details remain to be worked out.	当然，这一过程将会十分漫长，许多细节还有待制定。


But important progress can be made by the time the UK’s referendum is held – if, that is, EU leaders begin pursuing this goal in earnest now.	但在英国举行全民公决前就可以实现重要进展——如果欧洲领导人从现在开始真诚地追求这一目标的话。


The talks being held now are an opportunity that neither side can afford to miss.	现在正在进行的谈判对于任何一方来说都是不容错失的机会。


The Digital Road From Poverty	数字脱贫之路


COPENHAGEN – Where should the global community focus its attention over the next 15 years?	哥本哈根—未来15年，全球社会注意力焦点应该汇聚到何处？


Health, nutrition, and education may seem like obvious choices; more surprisingly, there is a strong case for making broadband access a top priority.	健康、营养和教育都是显而易见的选择； 比较意外的是，实现宽带普及也应该作为最优先事项。


Consider this simple fact: Tripling mobile Internet access over the next 15 years could make the developing world $22 trillion richer.	考虑以下简单的事实：在未来15年将移动互联网普及率提高两倍将让发展中世界增加22万亿美元财富。


Such improvement in the lives and earning potential of poor people could indirectly help with the other challenges; after all, more prosperous people tend to be healthier, better fed, and more highly educated.	穷人生活和收入潜力的如此改善直接有助于其他挑战； 毕竟，更繁荣的民族身体也更健康，吃得也更好，教育程度也更高。


This discussion matters, because the world’s 193 national governments will meet at the United Nations in September to finalize a list of development targets for the world to meet by 2030.	这一讨论很重要，因为全世界193个国家的政府将在9月齐聚联合国，最终确定2030年世界所要实现的发展目标。


My think tank, the Copenhagen Consensus, has asked 60 teams of economists, including several Nobel laureates, to investigate which targets would do the most good for every dollar spent, to help this meeting make the best choices.	我的智库——哥本哈根共识（Copenhagen Consensus）请60组经济学家（其中包括多位诺贝尔经济学奖获得者）研究哪些目标的每一美元收益最大，以帮助此次会议作出最佳选择。


In a new analysis, Emmanuelle Auriol and Alexia Lee González Fanfalone of the Toulouse School of Economics suggest that broadband could be one of the best investments for the future.	在一份新分析中，图卢兹经济学院（Toulouse School of Economics）的艾曼努尔·奥瑞尔（Emmanuelle Auriol）和亚历克谢·李·冈萨雷斯·范法伦（Alexia Lee González Fanfalone）指出，宽带也许是最好的未来投资。


Clearly, the rapid rollout of broadband services has transformed the lives of people in the industrialized world; there is every reason to expect that developing countries could benefit at least as much.	显然，宽带服务的快速推进改变了工业化国家人民的生活； 有充分的理由期待发展中国家至少也能获得同样的好处。


Access to market information, for example, can ensure that farmers selling their surplus crops are not cheated by unscrupulous traders, and that fishermen can land their catch at the port offering the best price.	比如，获得市场信息可以确保出售剩余庄稼的农民不会被恶劣的贸易商欺骗、渔民可以把收获运往出价最有利的港口。


A McKinsey report estimates that bringing mobile broadband in the developing world to the levels of the industrial world could add $400 billion annually to global GDP and create more than ten million jobs.	一份麦肯锡报告估算，让发展中世界移动宽带达到工业化国家同等水平可以每年增加4,000亿美元全球GDP，多创造一千万个新岗位。


Similarly, the World Bank has shown that a 10% increase in broadband penetration increased GDP growth by 1.4% in low- to medium-income countries.	类似地，世界银行指出，宽带渗透率提高10%可以让中低收入国家GDP增长提高1. 4%。


This implies that closing the persistent digital divide between the world’s developed and developing regions could give a big boost to development.	这意味着填补持续存在的发达和发展中地区数字差距可以带来巨大的发展提振作用。


For example, mobile broadband penetration stands at 83% in the former, but only 21% in the latter.	比如，发达地区的移动宽带渗透率为83%，而发展中地区只有21%。


While governments in Europe and elsewhere continue to invest in faster and better broadband, the biggest benefits will always come from providing Internet access to people who do not already have it, most of whom live in developing and emerging countries.	尽管欧洲和其他地区的政府一直在投资于更快更好的宽带，但最大的好处将永远来自向从未获得过��带接入的人们提供互联网。 这些人大多生活在发展中和新兴国家。


In fact, developing countries can leap-frog the developed world by going straight to mobile broadband, thereby avoiding the need for expensive fiber-optic cables for the “last mile” – or access point – of the network.	事实上，发展中国家可以通过直接进入移动宽带实现与发达国家同等的水平，从而避开铺设昂贵的“最后一英里”网络——或接入点——光纤的需要。


Mobile phone use is already spreading rapidly in developing countries, making old-style fixed infrastructure unnecessary; data services can use the same system.	移动电话正在发展中国家迅速普及，这使得老式固定线路基础设施不再必不可少； 数据服务可以使用相同的系统。


In China, three-quarters of Internet users get online via mobile phones already; in Ethiopia and Uganda, four out of five do.	在中国，四分之三的互联网用户已经通过移动电话上网； 在埃塞俄比亚和乌干达，这一比例达到了五分之四。


Thus, given the pervasiveness of mobile telephony and recent technological advances in mobile networks, rolling out mobile broadband seems a cost-effective solution.	因此，考虑到移动电话的普及度和移动网络技术的最新进步，普及移动宽带似乎是高性价比的解决之道。


The study by Auriol and Fanfalone shows that increasing mobile broadband about three-fold in developing regions – from 21% to 60% – will cost a substantial $1.3 trillion, as a significant amount of extra infrastructure is needed to establish about three billion more Internet connections.	奥瑞尔和范法伦的研究表明，将发展中地区的移动宽带普及度提高两倍——从21%提高到60%——需要花费大约1. 3万亿美元巨资，因为要增加三十亿个互联网连接需要大量新增基础设施。


But it will also increase GDP growth.	但这也会增加GDP增长。


By 2020, the benefits would be almost $500 billion annually, and would continue to rise each year.	到2020年，这方面的收益将达到每年近5,000亿美元，并将继续逐年递增。


Over the coming decades, the total benefit would reach about $22 trillion.	在未来十年中，总收益将达到约22万亿美元。


As a result, every dollar spent on mobile broadband in the developing world would yield an estimated gain of $17.	因此，花在发展中国家移动宽带上的每一美元大约可以带来17美元收益。


That looks like a really smart investment.	这看上去绝对是聪明的投资。


Of course, broadband is such an important enabling technology that it is difficult to predict its full economic impact, which will vary with local circumstances.	当然，宽带是极其重要的赋能型（enabling）技术，我们很难预测它的全部经济影响，其影响将随地方环境的不同而不同。


What the Auriol-Fanfalone study does show, though, is that rolling out Internet access is money very well spent.	但是，奥瑞尔-范法伦研究的确表明，增加互联网接入花的钱物有所值。


Jobs are created directly in the organization providing the network and indirectly in the supply chain.	就业岗位被直接（在提供网络的组织中）和间接（在供应链组织中）创造出来。


Once in place, broadband helps create more jobs in the wider economy.	一旦建立，宽带将有助于为更广泛的经济创造更多就业岗位。


Companies become more efficient and innovative.	公司的效率和创新力也有所提高。


All of these factors increase the pace of economic growth.	所有这些因素都能增加经济增长速度。


Apart from the direct effects on economic growth and job creation, broadband can have some other very important benefits for Least Developed Countries.	除了经济增长和就业创造的直接效应，宽带还能给最不发达国家带来一些重要收益。


Nine hundred million people live in LDCs, and, as Pantelis Koutroumpis of Imperial College London points out, only 6.7% are Internet users.	九亿人生活在最不发达国家，而伦敦帝国学院的潘特利斯·科特罗姆皮斯（Pantelis Koutroumpis）指出，其中只有6.


On the other hand, almost 60% of these people use a mobile phone.	7%是互联网用户。 另一方面，这些人中有近60%使用移动电话。


They could profit from smartphones with simple adaptations that can be used in a range of health-screening tests (for example, for cardiovascular disease, HIV and other pathogens, or malaria), with the results being sent straight to hospitals for an immediate response.	他们可以从智能手机中获益——在手机上装上简单的应用，就可以用于各种健康测试（如心血管疾病、艾滋病和其他病毒以及疟疾），结果直接发送到医院并获得即时反馈。


The potential benefits of mobile broadband for LDCs extend even further.	移动宽带给最不发达国家带来的潜在好处不仅于此。


Internet access could provide educational material and improve schooling.	互联网接入能提供教育素材、改善教学。


And it could enable real time, on-demand transport services for remote areas.	它还能为偏远地区带来实时的、按需提供的交通服务。


With the Internet now such an important resource in the modern world, broadband has become a vital technology, promising to boost economic growth, lift people out of poverty, and improve their health, nutrition, and education.	如今，互联网已成为现代世界中极其重要的资源，宽带也成为一项关键技术，带来提振经济增长、让人们摆脱贫困、改善人民健康、营养和教育的效果。


When governments finalize the next set of global development targets, there is now a strong case for broadband access to be among them.	当各国政府最终敲定下一阶段的全球发展目标时，绝对应该将宽带接入列入其中。


Europe’s Broadband Battle	欧洲的宽带战争


LONDON – Among the many challenges facing the new European Commission is determining how to provide ultra-fast broadband Internet access to all 500 million European Union residents without raising taxes or bankrupting Europe’s telecommunications companies.	伦敦—在新欧盟委员会所面临的诸多挑战中，有一项是确定如何在不增税也不让欧洲通信公司破产的情况下为全部5亿欧盟居民带来极速宽带互联网。


This imperative has led many to demand larger contributions from Internet giants like Google, Netflix, and Facebook, which are frequently criticized for failing to pull their weight – and even lambasted as “free-riders,” intent on pillaging European assets and markets.	这一使命让许多人要求谷歌、网飞（Netflix）和Facebook等互联网巨头做出更大贡献，这些公司常常被批评没有起到应有的作用——甚至被猛烈抨击为“免费搭车者”，想掠夺欧洲资产和市场。


Is this criticism warranted?	这样的批评合理吗？


In a word: no.	一言以蔽之：不合理。


The reality is that major Internet companies – most of which are based in the United States – are already contributing billions of dollars to establish and maintain the networks and data centers that are essential to the Internet’s functioning.	现实是大型互联网公司——大部分总部设在美国——已经在投入数十亿美元用于建设和维持对互联网运行至关重要的网络和数据中心。


In fact, these companies directly invested more than €75 billion ($100 billion) in Internet infrastructure over the last three years, with spending up by about 10% annually over this period.	事实上，这些公司在过去三年直接投资了750多亿欧元的互联网基础设施，在此期间，每年投入都要增加10%左右。


Moreover, they participated in consortia that invested more than €500 million in laying a trans-Pacific submarine fiber optic cable, which has been operational since 2010, and an 8,300-kilometer (5,200-mile) cable from Southeast Asia to Japan that came on-stream last year.	此外，它们还合作投资了5亿多欧元用于铺设已于2010年启用的跨太平洋海底光缆和去年投入使用的从东南亚到日本的8,300公里光缆。


But it is Europe that has received the lion’s share of global investment in Internet infrastructure – €25 billion, or nearly one-third of the total, in the last three years.	但获得全球互联网基础投资最大部分的正是欧洲——过去三年高达250亿欧元，接近总量的三分之一。


Google recently announced the construction of a new €600 million data center in the Netherlands, and is already investing heavily in data centers in Hamina, Finland, and St. Ghislain, Belgium.	谷歌最近宣布要在荷兰建设价值6亿欧元的数据中心，并且在芬兰哈米纳（Hamina）和比利时圣吉斯兰（St. Ghislain）已开始投入重金建设数据中心。


And Facebook has already established its own data center in Luleå, Sweden.	Facebook也在瑞典吕勒欧（Luleå）建立了自己的数据中心。


These facilities and networks – along with the broadband networks on which telecommunications companies spend billions – form the foundations of the Internet.	这些设施和网络——以及通信公司花数十亿美元建设的宽带网络——构成了互联网的基础。


By investing in them, America’s Internet giants are providing tangible benefits for European consumers and companies.	美国互联网巨头投资者写设施，为欧洲消费者和公司带来了看得见摸得着的好处。


Encouraging this investment should be the European Commission’s main concern.	鼓励这类投资应该成为欧盟委员会的主要关注点。


For example, these companies’ European data centers contribute to the economies of the regions where they operate, providing jobs to local residents.	比如，这些公司的欧洲数据中心有助于所在地区的经济，为当地居民提供工作岗位。


At the same time, they facilitate the smooth exchange of content, enabling European consumers to make the most of their Internet connections.	与此同时，它们促进了更顺利的内容交换，让欧洲消费者能够实现大部分互联网连接。


Likewise, Internet companies’ investments in content-delivery networks and Internet exchange points enable them to carry their own traffic close to consumers, handing it off to EU telecoms in places like London, Paris, and Frankfurt.	类似地，互联网公司在内容传递网络和互联网交换点方面的投资让它们能够让自己的信息流更加接近消费者，交给伦敦、巴黎和法兰克福等地的欧洲通信公司。


In doing so, they can help Internet service providers to cut costs and enable them to invest in the “last mile” access networks that they own and operate, thereby improving the Internet experience that they offer to consumers.	如此，它们可以帮助互联网服务提供商削减成本，使之能够投资于自己拥有和经营的“最后一英里”网络接入，从而改善它们提供给消费者的互联网体验。


In the longer term, as Europe becomes increasingly fertile ground for digital content and applications, this infrastructure will enable Europeans to distribute their creations globally.	从长期看，随着欧洲日益成为数字内容和应用的沃土，这一基础设施将能够让欧洲人得以在全球散播发明创造。


In other words, the structures that companies like Google and Facebook are building today will help to open new markets for European innovators, entrepreneurs, and companies, whose success will directly benefit Europe’s economy.	换句话说，谷歌和Facebook等公司今天所建立的结构将有助于为欧洲创新家、企业家和公司打开新市场，而它们的成功将直接有助于欧洲经济。


Instead of wasting energy and resources fighting one another, Europe’s telecoms and Internet giants from the US and elsewhere, together with the public sector, should recognize their shared interest in delivering fast, affordable broadband Internet to all EU residents.	欧洲通信公司和来自美国和其他地区的互联网巨头以及公共部门决不能将能量和资源浪费在彼此的斗争上，而应该认识到在给所有欧盟居民创造高速平价宽带互联网中的共同利益。


The Internet has always been a collaborative endeavor, and it must remain so, with each actor playing its role.	互联网一直是一项合作运动，未来也必须如此，每一位参与者都起着作用。


Throughout the process, creative solutions will be paramount, and Internet companies’ contributions will be invaluable.	在整个过程中，创造性解决方案将成为主宰，而互联网公司的贡献将是不可估量的。


After all, they are seasoned innovators, as exemplified by Google’s collaboration with Vodafone in New Zealand and Telefónica in Chile to deliver broadband to rural areas through atmospheric balloons.	毕竟，它们是老练的创新者，谷歌与沃达丰（Vodafone）在新西兰以及与西班牙电信（Telefónica）在智利合作通过大气气球为农村地区提供宽带就是明证。


For its part, the European Commission must not allow pressure from vested interests to drive it toward confrontation.	至于欧盟委员会，它决不能允许既得利益的压力促使其走向对峙。


Instead, EU leaders should remain focused on the interests of Europe’s millions of Internet users.	相反，欧盟领导人应该继续专注于欧洲数百万互联网用户的利益。


Only by adopting a balanced, fact-based approach and an emphasis on cooperation can they deliver consumer benefits, investment, jobs, and growth in Europe’s Internet sector.	唯有采取基于事实的平衡方针和强调合作，他们才能带来消费者的好处、投资、就业和欧洲互联网行业的成长。


Broken Promises for Syria’s Children	被破坏的叙利亚儿童承诺


LONDON – If you ever lose faith in the power of hope, not to mention the importance of never giving up, remind yourself of the story of Mohammed Kosha.	伦敦—如果你失去了希望的力量——更不用说永不放弃的重要性——你应该用穆罕默德·科沙（Mohammed Kosha）的故事激励自己。


A 16-year-old Syrian refugee living in Lebanon, Mohammed has overcome obstacles that most of us cannot even imagine, in order to excel in his education.	这位16岁的叙利亚难民现在生活在黎巴嫩，为了取的好成绩，他克服了大部分人难以想象的困难。


World leaders should take note.	世界领导人应该引起注意。


Four years ago, Mohammed and his family fled their home in the town of Darya, a suburb of Damascus, to escape relentless bombardment by Syrian armed forces.	四年前，穆罕默德和全家为了躲避叙利亚武装力量持续不断的炮击而逃离了位于大马士革市郊达尔亚（Darya）镇的家。


Having already lost a year of primary education in his hometown, where it was simply too dangerous to attend school, he then spent another year out of the classroom when the family arrived in Lebanon, where they now reside.	在家乡，由于上学太危险，他已经落下了一年小学功课，当全家到达他们现在居住的黎巴嫩后，他又有一年时间没能上学。


Mohammed’s life changed when Lebanon’s government opened the country’s public schools to refugees.	黎巴嫩政府向难民开放本国公立学校后，穆罕默德的生活发生了变化。


Classes were not only crowded; they were also conducted in English, meaning that he would have to learn a new language.	教室拥挤不堪，授课用的是英语，这意味着他必须得学习一门新语言。


But Mohammed seized the opportunity to learn, and threw himself into his studies.	但穆罕默德抓住了学习的机会，一头扎进了功课中。


Last month, against all odds, he scored the second-highest marks in Lebanon’s Brevet secondary-school exam.	上个月，排除万难的他在黎巴嫩初中升学考试中取得第二名的好成绩。


And he is not done yet.	他的故事还没有完。


Mohammed knows that education is the key to building a better future.	穆罕默德知道，教育是构建更美好未来的关键。


In his words, “Learning gives us hope.”	用他的话说，“学习给我希望。


If only world leaders had even a fraction of his wisdom.	”世界领导人有他一半的智慧就好了。


There have been some encouraging signals.	已经有了一些令人鼓舞的信号。


At a meeting in London in February, international donors recognized the importance of education for refugees, promising to get all of Syria’s refugee children into school by the end of 2017.	在2月份 伦敦的会议上，国际出资者认识到教育对难民的重要性，承诺到2017年底让所有叙利亚难民儿童上学。


They even pledged $1.4 billion to achieve that goal.	它们甚至承诺投入14亿美元用于实现这一目标。


It was an ambitious promise to a group of highly vulnerable children.	这是一个面向非常脆弱的儿童群体的宏大承诺。


Today, about one million Syrian refugee children aged 5-17 – roughly half the total – are out of school.	如今，大约一百万5—17岁叙利亚难民儿童——约占总数的一半——辍学。


And most of those who are in school will drop out before starting their secondary education.	即使有学可上，绝大部分也进不了中学。


In the space of a single primary-school generation, Syria has suffered what may be the greatest education reversal in history.	在仅仅一代小学教育的时间里，叙利亚遭到了也许是史上最严重的教育倒退。


Enrollment rates for the country’s children are now well below the regional average for sub-Saharan Africa.	叙利亚儿童入学率远远低于撒哈拉以南非洲的地区平均水平。


But now, just six months later, the promise of education for all refugees is about to be broken, dashing the hopes of millions of Syrians.	但如今，仅仅六个月后，所有难民接受教育的承诺眼看就要破产，击碎数百万叙利亚人的希望。


Just 39% of the $662 million in urgent education aid sought by United Nations humanitarian agencies this year has been funded.	今年，联合国人道主义机构紧急教育援助需要6. 62亿美元资金，目��只有39%已经到位。


And as documented in a Theirworld report published today, only a fraction of the $1.4 billion pledged in London has been delivered.	而在今天公布的Theirworld报告中指出，伦敦会议上所承诺的14亿美元只兑现了一小部分。


As the international community shirks its responsibilities, Syria’s neighbors have continued to make extraordinary efforts to address the crisis.	在国际社会逃避责任的同时，叙利亚的邻国继续以极大的努力解决这场危机。


Lebanon, Jordan, and (to a lesser extent) Turkey have opened up their public schools to Syrian refugees.	黎巴嫩、约旦以及（在较小程度上）土耳其向叙利亚难民开放了公立学校。


But these countries’ education systems, which were strained even before the crisis, cannot handle the burden that they are being forced to shoulder.	但这些国家的教育体系在危机前便捉襟见肘，根本无法承担它们如今被迫承担的负担。


Syrian refugees now comprise one-third of all Lebanese public-school students.	目前，叙利亚难民占了黎巴嫩公立学校学生总数的三分之一。


This is like the American primary-school system suddenly having to absorb all of Mexico’s children.	这好比是美国小学突然间必须接收所有墨西哥儿童。


There are simply not enough teachers, classrooms, or textbooks to deliver decent educations to the refugee children.	教师、教室和教科书严重不足，无法给难民儿童提供像样的教育。


The February conference was supposed to produce solutions that would ease the burden on Syria’s neighbors.	2月份的会议本应产生能够减轻叙利亚邻国负担的方案。


Host-country governments did their part, preparing in advance their plans for delivering universal education to refugee children.	东道国政府做好了自己的部分，提前计划好如何为难民儿童提供全民教育。


They then worked with donors to develop comprehensive strategies for reaching all out-of-school children and raising the quality of education.	接着，它们还与出资者合作制定覆盖全体辍学儿童和提高教育质量的全面战略。


Yet, with the international community having failed to hold up its end of the bargain, progress has not just stalled; it could be reversed.	但是，由于国际社会没有兑现承诺，进展十分缓慢； 甚至可能倒退。


More than 80,000 Syrian refugees now in school in Lebanon are at risk of losing their places.	如今，超过80,000在黎巴嫩学校上学的叙利亚难民有可能失去学习机会。


The human consequences of the education crisis among Syrian refugees are impossible to miss.	叙利亚难民所遭受的教育危机的人道后果不容忽视。


They are apparent in the growing army of child laborers picking vegetables in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley or working at garment factories in Turkey, where a half-million refugees are out of school.	在黎巴嫩贝卡谷（Bekaa Valley）种蔬菜和在土耳其（那里由五十万难民辍学）服装厂工作的童工数量激增。


They are also reflected in the continuing flow of refugee families making the perilous journey to Europe, driven by the hope that their children will have educational opportunities there.	难民家庭仍然在冒着生命危险前往欧洲，为的就是让他们的孩子获得受教育的机会。


Yet many European governments continue to invest in razor wire and detention centers, rather than in schools and teachers.	但许多欧洲政府继续投资铁丝网和集中营，而不是学校和教师。


There is an alternative – but the clock is ticking.	我们可以换一种做法——但时间紧迫。


Next month, the UN and the United States will host another round of refugee summits.	下个月，联合国和美国将主办新一轮难民峰会。


This time, governments can leave their recycled promises and heady rhetoric at home; instead, they should carry with them concrete plans to deliver the $1.4 billion they have already pledged.	在此次峰会上，政府可以抛弃车轱辘式的承诺和信誓旦旦的说辞，而应该拿出切实计划兑现它们所承诺的14亿美元。


The international community must also rethink how aid is delivered.	国际社会还必须反思如何进行援助。


The Syrian crisis will not end any time soon.	叙利亚危机不会很快结束。


Instead of delivering aid through unreliable, underfunded annual humanitarian appeals, donors need to provide predictable multi-year funding, as the United Kingdom has done.	注资人不应该通过不可靠、资金不足的年度人道主义呼吁提供援助，而应该提供可预测的多年期融资，如英国所做的那样。


More generally, the European Union and the World Bank should expand and intensify their support for education.	更一般地说，欧盟和世界银行应该扩大和强化它们对教育的支持。


Of course, more donor finance for education is only part of the equation.	当然，更多的教育捐助融资只是一部分。


There is more that host-country governments, however overstretched, can and should be doing.	东道国政府不管多么捉襟见肘，总可以也应该多做一些。


For starters, they should be working to remove the language barriers facing Syrian children.	首先，它们应该致力于打消叙利亚儿童所面临的语言障碍。


They could also address chronic teacher shortages through expedient recruitment of Syrian refugee teachers.	它们还可以通过临时招聘叙利亚难民教师来缓解教师严重不足的情况。


Above all, host governments could help refugees become more secure and self-reliant, notably by upgrading their legal status and expanding the right to work.	最重要的是，东道国政府可以帮助难民更加安全和自立，这主要可以通过提高他们的法律地位和扩大他们的工作权利实现。


Ultimately, though, a credible response to the refugee education crisis must involve a fairer approach to burden-sharing.	但是，说到底，难民教育危机的可信应对措施必须包括更公平的负担共担机制。


Before heading for the UN summit treadmill next month, governments should review the promises they made at the London conference.	在下个月的联合国峰会即将到来之际，各国政府应该回顾它们在伦敦会上作出的承诺。


And they should recall Nelson Mandela’s dictum: “Promises to children should never be broken.”	它们还应该回忆一下纳尔逊·曼德拉的名言：“对儿童的承诺永远不能破坏。 ”


America’s Enduring Leadership	美国领导力长盛不衰


WASHINGTON, DC – Many observers have cited the crisis in Ukraine as yet another example of American retrenchment and declining global influence.	华盛顿—许多观察者把乌克兰危机作为美国全球影响力收缩和衰退的又一例证。


Some have also interpreted it as evidence of a Russian-led effort to mobilize the major emerging economies – Brazil, India, and China – against the West.	一些人还把它视为俄罗斯领衔动员主要新兴经济体——巴西、印度和中国对抗西方的证据。


While there is a kernel of truth in both narratives, each is a gross exaggeration, as is the notion that America’s capacity to shape a secure and prosperous international system is in decline.	这两种说法都不无道理，但都有些夸张，与此类似的还有美国决定和捍卫安全、繁荣的国际制度的能力正在衰退的观点。


The US has had a rough few years. After two long, draining wars, its withdrawal from Afghanistan is inching along slowly.	美国最近几年不是很顺，在经历了两场漫长而艰苦的战争后，它开始从阿富汗缓慢地撤军。


In Syria, Russian and Chinese intransigence have frustrated its efforts to find a diplomatic solution.	在叙利亚，俄罗斯和中国的从中作梗使美国无法找到外交解决途径。


And China’s growing assertiveness in the South and East China Seas is threatening US regional dominance, while raising the risk of a crisis with America’s close ally Japan.	中国在东海和南海自信心的日益增长正在威胁美国的地区主宰力，同时也给美国的紧密盟友日本带来了危机风险。


Meanwhile, many of America’s European allies are mired in economic malaise.	与此同时，美国的许多欧洲盟友陷入了经济困境。


And, though the US economy is recovering from the global financial crisis, America’s treasury and reputation has been dealt a severe blow.	此外，尽管美国经济正在从全球金融危机中复苏，但其财政状况和名誉都遭到了重大打击。


Nonetheless, the US remains the most influential global actor – not least because of the strong alliances that it maintains.	尽管如此，美国仍是最有影响力的全球行动者——不仅是因为它所保持的强大联盟。


All of the attention given to China’s economic rise – and, to a lesser extent, that of India and Brazil – has overshadowed the success of US allies like South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, and Germany.	对中国经济崛起的关注——还有印度和巴西，尽管不如中国那样耀眼——让人忽略了韩国、土耳其、印尼和德国等美国盟友的成功。


In fact, the vast majority of the world’s strongest economies are allied with the US.	事实上，世界上最强盛经济体绝大多数都是美国的盟友。


Moreover, far from coalescing into a united anti-Western bloc, the emerging powers remain sharply divided.	此外，新兴大国远未结成反西方联盟，而仍然各自为政。


There are far more overlapping interests between the established and the emerging powers than the “West versus the rest” narrative suggests; indeed, the rising powers often share as many interests with their Western counterparts as they do with each other.	现有大国和新兴大国之间存在着纵横交错的利益联系，紧密程度远胜过“西方对抗其他国家”说； 事实上，崛起大国与西方国家之间的共同利益往往不亚于它们彼此之间。


Given this, even the economic powerhouses that are not US allies do not want to upend the existing world order, but rather to gain more space within it, such as through increased authority in international institutions.	基于此，即便是非美国盟友的经济超级大国也不想颠覆现有世界秩序，而是希望在其中获得更大份额，比如增加在国际机构中的权威。


After all, they rose precisely by integrating themselves into the global economic system.	毕竟，它们之所以崛起，正是因为它们融入了全球经济体系中。


Even China, which arguably seeks to curtail US leadership in some domains, has no choice but to cooperate with the US and its allies on many foreign-policy issues.	即使是有可能在某些领域削弱美国领导力的中国在许多外交政策问题上也别无选择，只能与美国及其盟友合作。


China can challenge American leadership only if others follow it, and so far it has found few takers.	只有在其他国家追随的情况下中国才能挑战美国的领导力，而如今它很难找到追随者。


Only Russia has sought to play a more destabilizing role – during the global financial crisis, in Syria, and now in Ukraine.	只有俄罗斯更积极地扮演着动摇性角色——在全球金融危机、叙利亚和如今的乌克兰都是如此。


To be sure, the emerging powers do share a strong inclination toward rivalry – or at least toward autonomy – which is rooted in what might be called the “psychology of rise.”	平心而论，新兴大国之间确实都有对抗倾向——或至少有自主倾向——这植根于可以被称为“崛起心理”的东西。


But they know that an excessively aggressive stance toward the US would undermine their interest in a stable global economy and the safe passage of their goods and energy through international sea and air routes.	但它们知道，过于对抗性的反美立场会影响到它们在稳定的全球经济中的利益，不利于它们的商品和恩呢高原在国际海运和空运路线安全通行。


This is particularly true for China, because its domestic stability and international influence depend largely on its ability to maintain rapid economic growth, which demands ever-larger quantities of imported energy and other natural resources.	中国尤其如此，因为其国内稳定和国际影响力在很大程度上取决于其保持高速经济增长的能力，这就需要日益大量的进口能源和其他天然资源。


To ensure unimpeded access to these critical resources, China needs stability in the countries from which it can extract them, in the markets in which it can invest, and in the routes linking China to its suppliers.	为了保证不受阻碍地获得这些关键资源，中国需要资源来源国、投资市场目标国以及供给国与其本土之间航路的稳定性。


But China’s capacity to maintain these conditions is extremely limited – and in some cases (as in the Persian Gulf), it is heavily dependent on US military power.	但中国维持这些条件的能力非常有限——在一些地区（如波斯湾），它严重依赖美国的军事实力。


In short, striking a balance between the impulse toward rivalry and incentives encouraging restraint is the most important dynamic in contemporary international affairs.	简言之，在推动敌对和鼓励克制之间寻找平衡是当代国际关系最重要的动态。


And, for now, the global balance is tipping toward restraint.	而如今，全球平衡正在导向克制。


Of course, the US will invariably face new challenges, all of which are on vivid display in Ukraine.	当然，美国将一直面临新挑战，乌克兰就是明证。


Countries will be torn between retaining their security ties to the US and building new economic linkages with China.	各国将在维持与美国的安全联系以及构建与中国的新经济联系之间权衡。


The complex global systems in which America’s interests are enmeshed will test US diplomacy.	让美国利益牵涉其中的复杂的全球体系将考验美国外交。


Perhaps the most dangerous challenge is the prospect of emerging powers leaning increasingly toward autonomy, instead of alliance.	也许最危险的挑战是新兴大国越来越倾向于自主而非结盟。


China and India may not have been happy about Russia’s actions in Ukraine, but none of the emerging economies could bring itself to vote against Russia in the United Nations General Assembly, even though the vote was ultimately meaningless.	中国和印度或许不满于俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动，但新兴经济体都不会在联合国安理会上投票反对俄罗斯，即使投票说到底没有什么意义。


(China took the strongest position in the Security Council by abstaining.)	（中国在安理会中最喜欢弃权。


They are not sticking with Russia; but they are not joining a Western effort to isolate Russia, either.	）它们不与俄罗斯穿一条裤子； 但也不加入西方阵营孤立俄罗斯。


Ultimately, however, the world’s relentless evolution plays to America’s most important strength: its unique ability to build broad and disparate coalitions.	但是，最终，不断演化的世界有利于美国最重要的优势：与范围广泛、相关性极低的国家结成联盟的独特能力。


The range of alliances and relationships that the US has created, including with several of the rising powers, far surpasses that of any other global actor – and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.	美国所建立的联盟和关系范围——包括其与一些崛起大国之间的关系——是任何其他全球行动方无法比拟的，并且在可预见的未来继续保持这一优势。


This is perhaps the most enduring feature of American power.	这或许是美国实力最长盛不衰的特征。


There is no denying that the US no longer enjoys the unrivaled hyperpower status that it did at the end of the Cold War.	不可否认，美国已不再享有冷战结束时无人可以撼动的超级大国地位。


But, for the time being, the international system remains America’s to lead.	但是，随着时间的流逝，国际体系仍由美国领导。


Menuju Afghanistan yang Mandiri	阿富汗的自我恢复力之路


KABUL – Konferensi Brussels tentang Afghanistan (Brussels Conference on Afghanistan) pekan ini menandai peluang penting pembangunan roadmap masa depan Afghanistan.	喀布尔—本周的布鲁塞尔阿富汗会议是一次奠定阿富汗未来路线图的重要机会。


Meski jalur yang dirintis Afghanistan saat ini sudah membuahkan hasil, jalan menuju kemakmuran masih panjang, terutama karena kelemahan dalam penyaluran bantuan dan tata kelola pemerintahan dalam negeri.	当前道路固然取得了一些进步，但远非通往繁荣的捷径，因为它存在提供援助和国内治理的深层次缺陷。


Sejak Presiden Ashraf Ghani terpilih di tahun 2014, aliran bantuan ke Afghanistan berkurang secara signifikan.	自2014年加尼当选阿富汗总统以来，对阿援助大幅下降。


Bantuan yang diterima tidak disalurkan melalui tindakan yang mendukung pembangunan negara, yang mana donor-donor asing umumnya menghindari (bypassing) pemerintah Afghanistan, dengan tujuan membiayai proyek-proyek terpisah.	而到位的援助也没有用于真正促进国家建设的用途，国际捐助人大多绕过阿富汗政府支持零散的独立项目。


Sejak 2002 hingga 2010, sekitar 82% dari dana bantuan sebanyak 56 miliar dolar AS yang dikucurkan ke Afghanistan dihabiskan melalui lembaga non-pemerintah.	从2002年到2010年，有560亿美元落实的援助是通过非国家机构支出的。


Pendekatan tersebut memiliki dasar pembenar.	采取这样的方针无可厚非。


Para donor meyakini bahwa pemerintah Afghanistan terlampau lemah dan korup untuk memakai dana bantuan secara efektif.	捐助人认为阿富汗国家太弱太腐败，不能有效利用捐赠的资金。


Anggapan mereka tidak sepenuhnya salah: korupsi dan nepotisme masih merajalela di negara tersebut.	不能说他们完全错误：恩庇和挪用在阿富汗是普遍现象。


Kondisi ini sebagian diwariskan oleh mantan Presiden Hamid Karzai.	从某种程度上说，这是前总统卡尔扎伊留下的问题。


Selama masa jabatannya, tahun 2004 hingga 2014, Karzai mengganti posisi paling senior di pemerintahan pusat, serta provinsi, demi memperoleh dukungan politik, dan seringkali memberi kekebalan hukum pada pejabat yang korup.	2004年到2014年，在他担任总统期间，卡尔扎伊用国民政府和省政府中最重要的职位换取政治支持，并且常常授予腐败官员豁免权。


Walaupun mengalami tantangan semacam itu, bantuan yang dikirimkan melalui pemerintah telah memupuk perekonomian dalam negeri dan perkembangan lembaga-lembaga negara.	尽管面临所有这些挑战，通过政府渠道落实的援助仍然支撑了国内经济和国际机构的发展。


Akan tetapi, fokus pada pemberian bantuan melalui lembaga non-pemerintah telah menjadikan sektor swasta yang mengurusi barang publik, yang menurut kacamata fiskal, tumbuh lebih besar dari pemerintah Afghanistan itu sendiri.	但注重通过非国家机构渠道的援助产生了一个生产公共品的私人部门，从财政角度看，这一部门比真正的阿富汗政府还要大。


Ini melemahkan efektivitas lembaga-lembaga negara, menambah biaya (sebab harus melalui sejumlah pengelolaan menurut perjanjian), dan kadang memperparah korupsi.	这制约了国家机构的效率，增加了成本（因为产生了多重契约安排），在一些例子中，也加剧了腐败。


Permasalahan lain sehubungan dengan bantuan kepada Afghanistan adalah alokasinya.	另一个对阿援助问题在于配置。


Pada kurun waktu 2002 hingga 2010, para donor menyalurkan lebih dari setengah dana bantuan kepada sektor keamanan.	从2002年到2010年，捐助人的总援助金有一大半流入了安全部门。


Bantuan pembangunan juga cenderung dialirkan untuk pemenuhan tujuan militer, terutama di wilayah-wilayah rentan.	发展援助也总是流向军用目标，特别是在不安全地区。


(Meski demikian, sejak kepergian sebagian besar tentara asing selama dua tahun terakhir, kondisi keamanan terus memburuk).	（尽管如此，自过去几年大部分国际战斗部队撤离以来，安全形势有所恶化。 ）


Sementara itu, hanya 3% dana bantuan dikeluarkan untuk pendidikan.	与此同时，只有3%的援助用于教育。


Tentu tidak mengejutkan, 40% anak-anak usia sekolah dasar dan menengah pertama mengalami putus sekolah.	毫不奇怪，40%的小学和初中适龄青少年辍学。


Total perkiraan belanja pemerintah Afghanistan untuk lima tahun ke depan (2017-2021) berjumlah 60 miliar dolar AS.	未来五年（2017—2021）阿富汗总公共支出估计在600亿美元。


Namun secara rata-rata terdapat kesenjangan pembiayaan sebanyak 74% setiap tahunnya.	但是，平均而言每年都有74%的资金缺口。


Pemerintah Afghanistan diharapkan mengisi kesenjangan ini melalui bantuan asing.	阿富汗政府希望通过外国援助填补这一缺口。


Mengarahkan Afghanistan menuju kemandirian mengharuskan kedua pihak, yakni pemerintah setempat dan para donor untuk mengubah arah kemudinya.	让阿富汗走向自我恢复力之路需要阿富汗政府及其捐助者都改变方针。


Pertama, donor harus menyalurkan porsi bantuan lebih besar melalui anggaran dan sistem nasional yang dimiliki pemerintah Afghanistan.	首先，捐助者应该让更大比例的援助走阿富汗政府预算和国家系统渠道。


Sesungguhnya ini bukan gagasan baru.	这不是什么新概念。


Pada tahun 2010, ketika diselenggarakan pertemuan International Conference on Afghanistan di Kabul, para donor meraih kesepakatan dengan pemerintah Afghanistan untuk mengalirkan setidaknya 50% bantuan pembangunan (di luar belanja militer) ke dalam anggaran negara dan berupaya meningkatkan keselarasan belanja off-budget dengan prioritas nasional.	2010年，在喀布尔阿富汗国际会议上，捐助者与阿富汗政府达成一致，让至少50%的发展援助（不含军事开支）走政府预算渠道，并让更多预算外支出用于国家当务之急。


Namun persetujuan tersebut kurang berhasil menjadikan kapasitas fiskal pemerintah lebih besar dibandingkan sektor swasta dalam hal penyediaan layanan (hanya beberapa yang memenuhi atau melebihi target).	但该协议仍不足以让国家财政在提供服务方面大过私人部门（也只有一些捐助者实现或超额完成了目标）。


Faktanya, 75% total bantuan pembangunan yang disalurkan ke Afghanistan seharusnya dialirkan melalui anggaran dan sistem nasional.	事实上，75%的对阿发展援助总量应该走政府预算和国家系统渠道。


Tindakan ini bisa dan harus dicapai pada akhir 2018.	应该和能够在2018年完成这一目标。


Tentunya pendekatan tersebut hanya akan sukses jika pemerintah memperbaiki penyelenggaraan layanan publik, termasuk peningkatan kualitas aparatur negara dan pembebasan dari tekanan politik.	当然，这一方针只有在政府改善自身服务提供的情况下才有效果，包括提高公务员质量和摆脱政治压力束缚。


Berita bagusnya adalah pemerintah di bawah kepemimpinan Ghani sudah mengakui masalah-masalah yang ditimbulkan dari korupsi, nepotisme, dan kelemahan lembaga, dan berjanji akan memberantas itu semua.	这方面的好消息是加尼政府已经认识到恩庇、腐败和机构孱弱造成的问题，并承诺解决这些问题。


Namun sejauh ini progresnya masih lamban.	但是，到目前为止进展缓慢。


Pemerintah Ghani bisa mempercepat jalannya progres dengan memperkenalkan sistem rekrutmen dan promosi aparatur negara yang lebih mengandung meritokrasi.	加尼政府可以通过引入更具精英性质的公务员招募和晋升制度来加速进展。


Kebijakan nihil toleransi terhadap korupsi – terutama di badan peradilan dan kementerian seperti keuangan, perdagangan, pertambangan, kepolisian, kesehatan, dan pendidikan – sangat esensial.	零容忍腐败政策——特别在司法和金融、商业、矿产、警察、卫生和教育部门——至关重要。


Selain itu, untuk meningkatkan akuntabilitas dan pendapatan negara, sistem perpajakan perlu melalui reformasi dan penguatan.	此外，要改善可问责性和增加政府收入，税收制度应该进行改革和强化。


Warga negara Afghanistan, melalui organisasi masyarakat sipil, dan donor-donor asing bisa memainkan peran penting dalam mendorong pemerintah menyelesaikan reformasi tersebut.	阿富汗公民——通过公民社会组织——以及国际捐助者能够在刺激政府坚持实施这些改革方面起到重要作用。


Gambaran ini akan menjadi utuh ketika pemerintah dan para donor menyalurkan bantuannya melalui investasi pada program-program yang memiliki sasaran jangka panjang.	阿富汗之谜的最后一块拼图的解决之道是政府和捐助者将援助导向长期目标项目投资。


Walaupun upaya-upaya jangka pendek diperlukan untuk meningkatkan kestabilan, dampaknya akan redup dengan cepat tanpa program jangka panjang yang diarahkan pada penguatan kelembagaan dan memberikan landasan untuk berfungsinya ekonomi yang dinamis.	尽管需要一些短期措施加强稳定，但如果没有以构建机构、为活力经济打好基础为目标的计划，它们的影响将很快消失。


Investasi modal manusia patut diprioritaskan, terutama pendidikan dan kesehatam, serta sektor yang menghasilkan lapangan kerja seperti pertanian.	应该以人力资本投资（特别是教育和卫生）以及就业创造部门投资（如农业）为重点。


Pengembangan sektor energi dan infrastruktur juga penting, sebab keduanya akan menyokong pertumbuhan manufaktur dan menghasilkan pendapatan negara yang sangat dibutuhkan.	能源和基础设施部门的发展也很重要，因为这有助于打好制造业增长基础并提供急需的政府收入。


Meskipun tantangan yang dihadapi Afghanistan sangat berat, bukan berarti tidak dapat ditanggulangi.	阿富汗面临的挑战是艰巨的，但也不是不可克服的。


Perbaikan pemberian dan alokasi bantuan, dikawinkan dengan reformasi tata kelola pemerintahan secara menyeluruh dan investasi cerdas, akan melancarkan jalan Afghanistan menuju kesejahteraan.	改善援助的落实和配置，再加上深度治理改革和明智的投资，就能让阿富汗走向繁荣之路。


Setelah dilanda perang dan ketidakstabilan selama puluhan tahun, jelas bahwa ini juga harapan semua warga di dunia.	在经历了数十年的战争和动荡后，这显然符合全世界的利益。


Bubble Spotting	泡沫的测定


NEW HAVEN – People frequently ask me, as someone who has written on market speculation, where the next big speculative bubble is likely to be.	发自纽黑文——作为一个在市场投机方面略有论述的评论者，人们总会问我：下一场大规模投机泡沫何时发生？


Will it be in housing again? Will it be in the stock market?	是在住宅市场卷土重来，还是转移到股票市场兴风作浪？


I don’t know, though I have some hunches. It is impossible for anyone to predict bubbles accurately.	虽然我对此总会有一些预感，但也无法给出答案，事实上根本没人能准确预测泡沫的来临。


In my view, bubbles are social epidemics, fostered by a sort of interpersonal contagion.	在我看来，泡沫是一种社会流行病，由某种人与人之间的互相传染而催生。


A bubble forms when the contagion rate goes up for ideas that support a bubble. But contagion rates depend on patterns of thinking, which are difficult to judge.	当某种观念的“传染率”升高到足以支撑泡沫的程度，泡沫便应运而生了，问题是这种传染率的高低取决于人们的思维模式，而后者是极难进行判断的。


Big speculative bubbles are rare events.	大规模的投机泡沫其实极少发生。


(Little bubbles, in the price of, say, individual stocks, happen all the time, and don’t qualify as an answer to the question.)	（类似某只股票的股价这样的小型价格泡沫则是家常便饭，也不能作为问题的答案。


And, because big bubbles last for many years, predicting them means predicting many years in the future, which is a bit like predicting who will be running the government two elections from now.	）与此同时，由于大规模泡沫往往持续经年，预测它们就等于要预测未来数年内会发生何事，难度堪比预测两届大选过后的美国总统人选。


But some places appear a little more likely than others to give rise to bubbles.	但有些领域似乎比其他领域更容易产生泡沫。


The stock market is the first logical place to look, as it is a highly leveraged investment – and has a history of bubbles.	股票市场在逻辑上首当其中，因为这是个高杠杆投资行为——而且自诞生以来就不乏泡沫。


There have been three colossal stock-market bubbles in the last century: the 1920’s, the 1960’s, and the 1990’s.	该市场光在上个世纪就出现了3次大规模资产泡沫：1920年代，1960年代和1990年代。


In contrast, there has been only one such bubble in the United States’ housing market in the last hundred years, that of the 2000’s.	相比之下美国的住宅市场在过去这100年只有一次泡沫，那是在21世纪的第一个十年。


We have had a huge rebound from the bottom of the world’s stock markets in 2009.	全球股票市场已经从2009年的谷底实现了彻底反弹。


The S&P 500 is up 87% in real terms since March 9 of that year.	标准普尔500指数已较2009年3月9日的点位实质上涨了87%。


But, while the history of stock-market prediction is littered with too much failure to try to decide whether the bounceback will continue much longer, it doesn’t look like a bubble, but more like the end of a depression scare.	但当屡战屡败的股票市场预测者们尝试判断这场反弹还能持续多久的时候，它其实不像是一场泡沫，而更像是某种萧条恐慌的终结。


The rise in equity prices has not come with a contagious “new era” story, but rather a “sigh of relief” story.	股票价格的上涨并未伴随着人们口耳相传的“新时代”财富故事，却更像是一场“死里逃生”的历险记。


Likewise, home prices have been booming over the past year or two in several places, notably China, Brazil, and Canada, and prices could still be driven up in many other places.	同样，世界某些地方（特别是中国，巴西和加拿大）的住宅价格也在过去一两年出现了可观上涨，而另外许多地方的房价也有上涨的可能。


But another housing bubble is not imminent in countries where one just burst. Conservative government policies will probably reduce subsidies to housing, and the current mood in these markets does not seem conducive to a bubble.	但那些刚刚遭遇房价泡沫爆破的国家则不太会产生另一场房价泡沫,因为趋向保守的政府政策可能会减少对住房的补贴，而这些国家当前的市场气氛似乎也无法催生泡沫。


A continuation of today’s commodity-price boom seems more likely, for it has more of a “new era” story attached to it.	不过当今的商品价格上涨则更可能持续下去，因为它身上更多地附着有一个“新时代”故事的光环。


Increasing worries about global warming, and its effects on food prices, or about the cold and snowy winter in the northern hemisphere and its effects on heating fuel prices, are contagious stories. They are even connected to the day’s top story, the revolutions in the Middle East, which, according to some accounts, were triggered by popular discontent over high food prices – and which could themselves trigger further increases in oil prices.	对全球变暖及其对食品价格影响的担忧，以及北半球寒冷冬天及其对取暖用油价格影响的恐惧都成为了人们之间流传的故事，甚至与当今的头条新闻——中东革命——联系了起来，因为某些说法认为革命是被大众对高食品价格的不满所激发的——而且还会因此引发油价的进一步上涨。


But my favorite dark-horse bubble candidate for the next decade or so is farmland – and not just because there have been stories in recent months of booming farmland prices in the US and the United Kingdom.	但我在未来十年最看好的潜在泡沫黑马则是农地——但这项判断不仅仅是由美英两国近几个月农地价格上涨而得出的。


Of course, farmland is much less important than other speculative assets.	农地在重要性上显然比不上其他投机资产。 比如美国全国的农地在2010年总值约为1.


For example, U.S. farmland had a total value of $1.9 trillion in 2010, compared with $16.5 trillion for the US stock market and $16.6 trillion for the US housing market.	9万亿美元，而股票市场和住宅市场则分别高达16. 5万亿和16.


And large-scale farmland bubbles are quite rare: there was only one in the US in the entire twentieth century, during the great population scare of the 1970’s.	6万亿美元。 同时大规模的农地泡沫也非常罕见：在20世纪的美国仅仅发生过一次，那是在1970年代人们恐慌人口过度暴增的时期。


But, farmland, at least in certain places, seems to have the most contagious “new era” story right now.	但农地，至少是某些特定地区的农地，如今正流传着一个极富传染性的“新时代”故事。


It was recently booming, up 74% in real terms in the US in the decade ending with its price peak, in 2008.	美国农地的价格在过去十年曾经发生过巨大上涨，在到达2008年的顶点时已经实质上涨了74%。


And the highly contagious global-warming story paints a scenario of food shortages and shifts in land values in different parts of the world, which might boost investor interest further.	而急剧流传的全球变暖故事则向人们描绘了一幅食品短缺以及世界各地土地价值重估的图景，而这将促使投资者进一步加大投资。


Moreover, people nowadays easily imagine that the housing and farmland markets always move together, because prices in both boomed in recent memory, in the early 2000’s.	此外，如今的人们很容易会以为住宅和农地市场会经常联动，因为在2000年之后那几年两者都同时上涨。


But, from 1911 to 2010 in the US, the correlation between annual real growth of prices for homes and farmland was only 5%, and the latest data on farm prices have not shown anything like the decline in home prices.	但美国住宅和农地价格在1911年到2010年间的相关性其实只有区区5%，而最新的农地价格数据也并没有像住宅价格那样下跌。


By 2010, real farm prices in the US had fallen only 5% from their 2008 peak, compared to the 37% decline in real home prices since their peak in 2006.	截止至2010年，美国农地的实际价格较2008年最高点仅仅下跌了5%，而住宅实际价格较2006年的最高点已经跌去了37%。


The housing-price boom of the 2000’s was little more than a construction-supply bottleneck, an inability to satisfy investment demand fast enough, and was (or in some places will be) eliminated with massive increases in supply.	2000年以来的住宅价格上涨更可能是源于建筑行业的供应瓶颈（无法足够迅速地满足市场的投资需要）并被（在某些地方将被）随之涌出的大量供应所抵消。


By contrast, there has been no increase in the supply of farmland, and the stories that would support a contagion of enthusiasm for it are in place, just as they were in the 1970’s in the US, when a similar food-price scare generated the century’s only farmland bubble.	相比之下农地的供应却没有增加，而激发人们投资热情广泛流传的故事正大行其道，正如1970年代的美国，一场类似的食品价格恐慌催生了上世纪唯一的一场农地价格泡沫。


Still, we must always bear in mind the difficulty of forecasting bubbles.	尽管如此，我们还是要将预测泡沫的困难之处牢记于心。


And, for daring investors, it is not enough to find a bubble to pile into. They must also try to determine when to cash out and put their money elsewhere.	而对于那些勇敢的投资者来说，光找到一场泡沫并投身其中是不够的，还必须决定何时要将这些泡沫中抽身离开，并将资金转投到另一个领域。


According to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, US home prices increased 86% in real, inflation-corrected, terms from 1996 to 2006, but have since fallen 6.5% – and the rate of decrease has been accelerating.	根据标准普尔Case-Shiller美国全国房价指数，美国的房价在1996-2006年之间去除通货膨胀的影响实际上升了86%，但是此后已经下降了6. 5%，并且下降的幅度还在加快。


What then helped produce a boom in consumer prices now contributed to a boom in home prices.	当时导致消费品价格上涨的情况现在引发了��屋价格的上涨。


According to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, home prices were already rising at almost 10% a year in 2000 – a time when the Fed was raising the federal funds rate, which peaked at 6.5%.	根据标准普尔Case-Shiller美国全国房价指数，房价在2000年已经几乎上涨了10%，同期美联储将联邦基金利率提到了6. 5%的最高水平。


Building a Progressive International	建立一个渐进性的国际体系


ATHENS – Politics in the advanced economies of the West is in the throes of a political shakeup unseen since the 1930s.	发自雅典——西方发达经济体的政治局面目前处于自1930年代以来首次出现的动荡之中。


The Great Deflation now gripping both sides of the Atlantic is reviving political forces that had lain dormant since the end of World War II.	侵袭大西洋两岸的严重通货紧缩正在唤醒那些在二战后沉睡的政治力量。


Passion is returning to politics, but not in the manner many of us had hoped it would.	政治生活再次充斥着激情——但却并非是以许多人所希望的方式。


The right has become animated by an anti-establishment fervor that was, until recently, the preserve of the left.	右派势力陷入了反体制的狂热之中，即便这原本是左派的专利。


In the United States, Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, is taking Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, to task – quite credibly – for her close ties to Wall Street, eagerness to invade foreign lands, and readiness to embrace free-trade agreements that have undermined millions of workers’ living standards.	在美国，共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）大肆攻击其民主党对手希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）与华尔街关系密切、鼓吹入侵外国领土并准备接受已经拉低了数百万工人生活水平的自由贸易协定——而且似乎有理有据。


In the United Kingdom, Brexit has cast ardent Thatcherites in the role of enthusiastic defenders of the National Health Service.	而在英国，脱欧使得那些撒切尔夫人的右派支持者摇身一变成为了国民医疗服务的热情拥护者。


This shift is not unprecedented.	这一转变并非史无前例。


The populist right has traditionally adopted quasi-leftist rhetoric in times of deflation.	民粹主义右派在通货紧缩时期就接受过准左派的理论。


Anyone who can stomach revisiting the speeches of leading fascists and Nazis of the 1920s and 1930s will find appeals – Benito Mussolini’s paeans to social security or Joseph Goebbels’ stinging criticism of the financial sector – that seem, at first glance, indistinguishable from progressive goals.	任何一个愿意捏着鼻子重温1920~30年代法西斯和纳粹首领演讲—— 包括贝尼托·墨索里尼（Benito Mussolini）对社会保障体系的赞颂和约瑟夫·戈培尔（Joseph Goebbels）对金融部门的尖锐批评——的人都会发现，乍一看来这些呼声和渐进性目标似乎并无区别。


What we are experiencing today is the natural repercussion of the implosion of centrist politics, owing to a crisis of global capitalism in which a financial crash led to a Great Recession and then to today’s Great Deflation.	当前我们遇到的是中间派政治崩溃所产生的自然反应，而导致这一切的则是全球资本主义危机——金融危机导致经济大萧条再到如今的大通缩。


The right is simply repeating its old trick of drawing upon the righteous anger and frustrated aspirations of the victims to advance its own repugnant agenda.	那些右派不过是简单地故伎重演，利用受害者对合乎道义的愤怒及沮丧情绪来推动自身臭不可闻的政治议程。


It all began with the death of the international monetary system established at Bretton Woods in 1944, which had forged a post-war political consensus based on a “mixed” economy, limits on inequality, and strong financial regulation.	这一切都始于1944年布雷顿森林体系中建立的国际货币体系——基于“混合”经济，对不平等状况的遏制以及强大的金融监管的战后政治共识——的崩溃。


That “golden era” ended with the so-called Nixon shock in 1971, when America lost the surpluses that, recycled internationally, kept global capitalism stable.	这个“黄金时期”在1971年发生的所谓“尼克松冲击”中走向终结，美国也同时失去了维持全球资本主义稳定的从全球各地回收的顺差。


Remarkably, America’s hegemony grew in this second post-war phase, in parallel with its trade and budget deficits.	值得注意的是，美国在二战后期的霸权增长是与其贸易和预算赤字增长同步的。


But to keep financing these deficits, bankers had to be unleashed from their New Deal and Bretton Woods restraints.	但是为了融资以维持赤字，银行必须从罗斯福新政和布雷顿森林体系的约束中解放出来。


Only then would they encourage and manage the inward capital flows needed to finance America’s twin fiscal and current-account deficits.	只有这样，他们才能鼓励和管理支撑美国的财政和经常账户双赤字所需的向内资本流动。


Financialization of the economy was the goal, neoliberalism was its ideological cloak, the Paul Volcker-era Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes were its trigger, and President Bill Clinton was the ultimate closer of the Faustian bargain.	当年经济金融化是目标，新自由主义是它的意识形态外衣，保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）时代的美联储加息则是它的 触发器，总统比尔·克林顿（Bill Clinton）在位时最为接近这种浮士德式的魔鬼交易。


And the timing couldn’t have been more congenial: the Soviet empire’s collapse and China’s opening generated a surge of labor supply for global capitalism – a billion additional workers – that boosted profits and stifled wage growth throughout the West.	当年的时机也再合适不过了：苏联帝国的崩溃和中国的对外开放为全球资本主义带来海量的劳动力供给——额外多出近十亿工人——令利润暴增并扼杀了所有西方国家劳动者的���资增长。


The result of extreme financialization was enormous inequality and profound vulnerability.	极端金融化的结果是巨大的不平等和深层次的脆弱性。


But at least the West’s working class had access to cheap loans and inflated house prices to offset the impact of stagnant wages and declining fiscal transfers.	但至少西方工人阶级获得了廉价贷款和房价升值来抵消工资增长停滞和财政转移支付减少的影响。


Then came the crash of 2008, which in the US and Europe produced a massive excess supply of both money and people.	随后爆发的2008年金融危机令美国和欧洲产生了大规模的资金和人员供应过剩。


While many lost jobs, homes, and hopes, trillions of dollars in savings have been sloshing around the world’s financial centers ever since, on top of more trillions pumped out by desperate central banks eager to replace the financiers’ toxic money.	纵使许多人失去了工作，家庭和希望，却有数万亿美元存款在各个全球金融中心之间流转，除此之外还有数万亿美元被绝望的央行抽出来紧急置换金融家造成的烂账。


With companies and institutional players too frightened to invest in the real economy, share prices have boomed, the top 0.1% can’t believe their luck, and the rest are helplessly watching as the grapes of wrath are “…filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage.”	由于公司和机构投资者都不敢投资实体经济，股价迅速飙升，令社会金字塔尖的前0. 1％的人喜出望外，而其余的人只能无望地看着那些愤怒的葡萄 “.


And so it was that large chunks of humanity in America and Europe became too indebted and too expensive to be anything other than discarded – and ready to be lured by Trump’s fear-mongering, French National Front leader Marine Le Pen’s xenophobia, or the Brexiteers’ shimmering vision of a Britannia ruling the waves again.	结果在美国和欧洲都有一大批负债累累且失去希望的人——随时可能被特朗普的恐慌言论，法国国民阵线领导人马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）的仇外心理，或英国脱欧支持者憧憬不列颠重新掌权的伟大愿景所诱惑。


As their number grows, traditional political parties are fading into irrelevance, supplanted by the emergence of two new political blocs.	随着他们的数量不断增加，传统的政党不断衰落，由两个新的政治集团 取而代之。


One bloc represents the old troika of liberalization, globalization, and financialization.	其中一个集团代表的是自由化、全球化和金融化的旧三驾马车。


It may still be in power, but its stock is falling fast, as David Cameron, Europe’s social democrats, Hillary Clinton, the European Commission, and even Greece’s post-capitulation Syriza government can attest.	它可能仍旧掌权，但其实力正迅速下降，正如戴维·卡梅伦（David Cameron）、欧洲的社会民主主义者、欧盟委员会、希拉里·克林顿，甚至希腊被注资援助后的激进左翼联盟政府所展现的那样。


Trump, Le Pen, Britain’s right-wing Brexiteers, Poland’s and Hungary’s illiberal governments, and Russian President Vladimir Putin are forming the second bloc.	而特朗普、勒庞、英国右翼脱欧论者，波兰和匈牙利两国的反自由化政府和俄罗斯总统普京（Vladimir Putin）正在形成另一个集团。


Theirs is a nationalist international – a classic creature of a deflationary period – united by contempt for liberal democracy and the ability to mobilize those who would crush it.	他们构成了一种民族主义国际体系——典型的通货紧缩时期的产物——集结了那些对自由民主制度的抵触情绪以及足以摧毁这一制度的力量。


The clash between these two blocs is both real and misleading.	这两个集团之间的冲突既真实又存在误导性。


Clinton vs. Trump constitutes a genuine battle, for example, as does the European Union vs. the Brexiteers; but the combatants are accomplices, not foes, in perpetuating an endless loop of mutual reinforcement, with each side defined by – and mobilizing its supporters on the basis of – what it opposes.	克林顿与特朗普之间存在一场真正的战争，就像欧盟迎战英国脱欧支持者； 但对战双方与其说是敌人，不如说是同谋，他们之间维持着一个相互强化的无限循环，双方都用其反对的东西来定义自身并以此动员其支持者。


The only way out of this political trap is progressive internationalism, based on solidarity among large majorities around the world who are prepared to rekindle democratic politics on a planetary scale.	逃离这个政治陷阱的唯一方法是渐进式的国际体系，这是建立在团结遍布世界各地希望在全球重建民主政治的大多数人的基础上的。


If this sounds Utopian, it is worth emphasizing that the raw materials are already available.	这听起来很乌托邦，但值得强调的是，所有原材料都是现成可用的。


Bernie Sanders’s “political revolution” in the US, Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the UK’s Labour Party, DiEM25 (the Democracy in Europe Movement) on the continent: these are the harbingers of an international progressive movement that can define the intellectual terrain upon which democratic politics must build.	美国伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）的“政治革命”，杰里米·科尔宾（Jeremy Corbyn）对英国工党的领导，欧洲的DiEM25（欧洲民主运动组织）：这些都是国际进步运动的预兆，也可以被定义构建民主政治的智力基础。


But we are at an early stage and face a remarkable backlash from the global troika: witness Sanders’ treatment by the Democratic National Committee, the run against Corbyn by a former pharmaceutical lobbyist, and the attempt to have me indicted for daring to oppose the EU’s plan for Greece.	但是我们正处于一个初级阶段，面临着来自全球三驾马车的强力反击：民主党全国委员会对桑德斯的攻击，一个前制药厂说客对科尔宾领导地位的挑战，或是试图因为我反对欧盟的希腊计划而起诉我的行为。


The Great Deflation poses a great question: can humanity design and implement a new, technologically advanced, “green” Bretton Woods – a system that makes our planet ecologically and economically sustainable – without the mass pain and destruction preceding the original Bretton Woods?	大规模的通货紧缩带来一个极大的问题：人类能否设计和实现一个新的、技术先进的“绿色”布雷顿森林体系——一个使我们的地球生态和经济可持续发展的系统——而无需引发原有布雷顿森林体系建立之前的那种大范围人民疾苦和破坏效应？


If we – progressive internationalists – won’t answer that question, who will?	如果我们——渐进式的国际主义者——无法回答这个问题，那又有谁能回答？


Neither of the two political blocs now vying for power in the West even wants it to be posed.	要知道目前正在西方争权夺利的两个政治集团甚至都不希望这个问题被提出的。


Building a Safe Nanotechnology Future	构建一个安全的纳米技术的未来


We are living – according to some – on the brink of a nanotechnology revolution, where matter is engineered at a scale thousands of times smaller than the eye can see, and familiar materials behave in unexpected ways.	根据某些人的观点我们即将迎来一场纳米技术革命，在那里物体被以比人眼所能看到的小几千倍的尺寸制造，而我们熟悉的材料将会有令人意外的表现。


This revolution, if successful, will turn our world upside down.	这场革命如果成功的话，将会颠覆整个世界。


Nanotechnology gives us increasing control over the material world, providing opportunities to enhance existing technologies and develop new ones.	纳米技术提高了我们对材料的控制以及提供了提高现有技术和开发新技术的机会。


The opportunities seem endless, from building stronger, lighter materials and manufacturing tremendously powerful yet incredibly small computers, to developing new sustainable energy sources and devising personalized cures for cancer.	从建造更强、更轻的材料和制造功能极强但难以置信地小的电脑到开发新的可持续能源和设计个人化的癌症治疗方案，这里看上去有无限的机会。


More than 500 manufacturer-identified nanotechnology consumer products are now on the market, from cosmetics to car parts to tableware. By 2014 an estimated $2.6 trillion in manufactured goods around the world (or 15% of total global output) will use this technology, building on the research of scientists in some 100 nations around the world.	现在市场上有超过500种不同制造商宣称生产的纳米技术消费产品，从化妆品到汽车零件以及餐具，应有尽有。


If current projections are right, nanotechnology has the potential to have an impact on nearly every industry and virtually every aspect of our lives.	如果现在的预测正确，那么纳米技术将有可能对每一个行业以及我们生活中的方方面面都产生影响。


Yet nanotechnology is also shaking up our understanding of what makes something harmful.	然而纳米技术也在颠覆着我们对什么东西是有害的认识。


At the nanometer scale (about 50,000 times smaller than the width of a human hair), matter behaves in unusual ways: weak materials become strong, inert materials become active, and benign materials become harmful.	在纳米范围（大约比人的头发丝的宽度小5万倍）上，物体的表现并不像寻常那样：弱的物质变强了，惰性的物质变得活跃了，而良性的物质变得有害了。


In the same way that iron can be made into products as different as skillets and swords, the usefulness or harmfulness of nanotechnology products depends on how they are crafted at the nanometer scale.	以同样的方式铁可以被制造成像长柄平底煎锅和剑这样不同的产品，纳米技术产品的有用或有害完全要看它们在纳米范围上是怎样被制作的。


As a result, we can no longer rely on conventional ways of managing risk that are based on the raw materials alone.	其结果是，我们不能再依赖传统上单单根据原材料来界定危险的方式了。


As the number of products using nanotechnology continues to grow, we need new scientific information on the risks that they might present.	随着使用纳米技术的产品越来越多，我们需要了解它们可能带来的危险的新的科学信息。


Experts in government, industry, academia, and elsewhere agree that a long list of questions needs to be addressed if we are to develop nanotechnology as safely as possible.	政府、工业、学术界和其他地方的专家认为如果我们想尽可能安全地开发纳米技术那就要解决一长串的问题。


The challenge we face is to find answers that will enable producers and regulators to make sound, science-based decisions, and to develop an oversight system that inspires consumer confidence.	我们面临的挑战是寻找到能够使生产者和管理者作出合理的、有科学依据的决策以及建立一个能让消费者放心的监管体系的答案。


Unfortunately, the global response to this challenge has not been overwhelming.	不幸的是，迄今为止全球对于这一挑战的回应并不那么积极。


In 2005, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies looked closely at government-funded research addressing the environmental, health, and safety impact of nanotechnology.	2005年，伍德罗威尔逊国际学者中心新兴纳米技术计划考察了由政府资助的对于纳米技术的环境、健康和安全影响的研究项目。


Investment in highly relevant research was low: in the United States, it was only an estimated 1% of the $1.1 billion federal investment in nanotechnology research and development.	在高度相关的研究上的投资非常低：在美国，这方面的投资大约只占联邦在纳米技术的研究和开发上的11亿美元投资的1%。


More worrying was the apparent absence of any strategy behind the research being funded.	更令人担心的是注资进行研究的背后明显缺乏任何策略的现象。


Even the small handful of relevant studies exploring possible risks lacked a guiding focus, giving no indication that the information developed would help decision-makers ensure that nanotechnology is developed safely over the long term.	即便少得可怜的探索可能存在的危险的相关研究也缺乏明确的研究方向，无法令人相信其所开发出的信息能够帮助决策者确保纳米技术被长期安全地开发。


The US has been tremendously successful in promoting research strategies that support the use of nanotechnology, and has served as a model that is being duplicated around the world.	美国在推动支持使用纳米技术的研究战略上表现得非常成功，并且树立了被全世界广泛仿效的典型。


But the same strategies that work for developing nanotechnology applications will not help answer the growing list of questions about its possible impact that governments and industry are asking today.	但是帮助开发纳米技术应用的同等战略无法帮助回答政府和产业 今天 越来越多地问到的有关它可能带来的影响的问题。


Pressing risk-related questions require deliberate action on an international scale.	与危险相关的紧迫问题需要全世界都认真行动起来。


They will be answered only by matching research efforts and funding levels to the information needed to steer toward a safe future for nanotechnology applications.	我们只有通过加强研究努力和注资水平来获得未来安全应用纳米技术的信息才能回答这些问题。


In 2006, five research grand challenges for developing safe nanotechnology were published in the scientific journal Nature:	2006年，科学杂志《自然》刊登了在开发纳米技术研究上五 大挑战 ：


· finding ways to measure the amount of nanomaterials in the air and water;	l 寻找到测量空气和水中存在的纳米材料的数量的方式；


· learning how to assess how harmful nanomaterials are;	l 了解如何评估衡量纳米材料的有害程度；


· developing ways to predict – and prevent – harm from new nanomaterials;	l 开发预测 ——以及防止——纳米材料有害性的方式；


· becoming skilled at evaluating the potential impact of nanotechnology products from cradle to grave;	l 能够熟练评估纳米技术产品从出品到消亡的过程中的潜在影响；


· and establishing strategies and funding to support the research needed to meet these challenges.	l 制定战略以及注入资金支持旨在应对这些挑战的研究。


Some nations and regions are beginning to develop research agendas that respond to these five challenges.	一些国家和地区已经开始制定研究日程来应对这五大挑战。


For example, the European Union has recently announced a €3.6 billion nanotechnology research program, which includes environment, health, and safety goals that align with these challenges.	比如，欧盟最近宣布了一项耗资36亿欧元的纳米技术研究项目，包括与这些挑战相关的环境、健康和安全目标。


Likewise, in March 2007, the British government’s top advisory body on science and technology warned that the country’s lead in nanotechnology is fading, because the government has not invested enough in research necessary for understanding and effectively managing possible health and environmental effects.	同样地，2007年3月，英国政府的科学技术高级咨询机构警告说这个国家在纳米技术上的领先地位正在消失，因为政府没有在了解和有效控制可能产生的健康和环境影响的必需有的研究进行足够的投资。


There is still a long way to go.	我们还有很长的路要走。


If sustainable nanotechnology is to be built on sound science, global research strategies must be supported by innovative policies and accompanied by sufficient funds to do the job.	如果要让可持续的纳米技术建立在合理的科学基础上，那么全球的研究战略就必须得到创新的政策的支持以及得到足够的资金支持。


In the US alone, estimates of the necessary funding levels for goal-oriented nanotechnology risk research are between $50 million and $100 million per year – five to ten times the amount invested in 2005.	单单在美国，预计有明确目标的纳米技术危险性研究必须要有的注资水平每年在5千万到1亿美元之间，这是2005年投资额的5到10倍。


We cannot afford to drive blind into the nanotechnology future.	我们不能够一头雾水地冲进纳米技术的未来。


Despite a good start, many countries are developing these twenty-first century technologies within an old and blinkered mindset.	尽管我们已经有了一个好的开端，许多国家依然在以陈旧和目光短浅的思维模式开发这种二十一世纪的技术。


If we do not develop the ways and means to spot and navigate around possible new risks, the outlook for this exciting new technology will be uncertain.	如果我们无法制定出识别和避免可能的新危险的方式和方法，那这种令人鼓舞的新技术的前景并不乐观。


We must wake up to the need for future nanotechnology applications to be based on a sound understanding of the possible impact.	我们必须清醒地认识到未来的纳米技术应用需要建立在对其可能影响的充分理解之上。


In the global race for nanotechnology leadership, the winners will be those who understand the risks and support the research necessary to minimize them.	在对纳米技术领导地位的全球竞争中，只有那些对其危险性有很好的认识并且支持必要的研究以把这种危险性降到最低程度的国家才会成为最后的赢家。


Paths to Sustainable Power	可持续能源之路


NEW YORK – The surest bet on the future of energy is the need for low-carbon energy supplies.	纽约—对能源未来的最安全赌注是下注于低碳能源供给。


Around 80% of the world’s primary energy today is carbon based: coal, oil, and gas.	如今，全世界八成左右的一次能源是碳基能源：煤、石油和天然气。


We will need to shift to no- or low-carbon energy by mid-century.	我们需要在本世纪中叶转向非碳或低碳能源。


The big questions are how and when.	怎样转、何时能转成，这是个大问题。


Low-carbon primary energy means three options: renewable energy, including wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower, and biomass; nuclear energy; and carbon capture and sequestration, which means using fossil fuels to create energy, but trapping the CO2 emissions that result and storing the carbon safely underground.	核能； 以及碳捕捉和碳储存，即用化石燃料生产能源，但限制二氧化碳发生量，并将碳安全地储存于地下。


There are three compelling reasons for the world to make the shift to low-carbon energy.	世界需要转向低碳能源，有三条刻不容缓的原因。


First, higher levels of CO2 are making the world’s oceans acidic.	首先，二氧化碳水平的升高正在让海洋变酸。


If we continue with business as usual, we will end up destroying a vast amount of marine life, severely damaging the food chains on which we rely.	照目前的发展速度，我们会毁掉大量海洋生物，严重破坏我们赖以生存的食物链。


Second, CO2 is dangerously changing the world’s climate, even if many Big Oil interests would have us believe otherwise.	其次，二氧化碳正在让世界气候变得越来越危险，尽管许多石油巨头试图让我们相信并非如此。


(So, too, did the tobacco companies spend vast sums on political lobbying and bogus science to deny the links between smoking and lung cancer.)	（烟草公司也花巨资用于政治游说和伪科学，以否认吸烟和肺癌之间的联系。 ）


Third, we face steeply rising prices for fossil fuels, as developing countries’ growth drives up demand and conventional supplies of coal, oil, and gas are depleted.	第三，随着发展中国家的增长推动了需求，而煤、石油和天然气的常规供给越来越少，我们面临着化石燃料价格的暴涨。


Sure, we can find more fossil fuels, but at much higher cost and at much greater environmental risk from industrial spills, waste products, leaks, and other damage.	诚然，我们可能发现更多的化石燃料，但成本会高很多，环境风险也会高很多，如工业渗漏、废料、泄露等。


Even the much-heralded shale-gas revolution is a lot of hype – similar to the gold rushes and stock bubbles of the past.	即使最近大热的页岩气革命，也是幻想多于实际——一如过去的黄金热和股市泡沫。


Shale-gas wells deplete far more rapidly than conventional fields do. And they are environmentally dirty to boot.	页岩气矿的耗竭速度远远快于传统矿，且对环境影响很大。


The United States has developed many new low-carbon energy technologies, but other countries are currently far more intent, far-sighted, and decisive than the US to put these technologies to large-scale use.	美国已开发出许多新的低碳能源技术，但其他国家大规模使用这些技术的目标、远见和决心要远强于美国。


Politically, America is still the land of Big Oil.	从政治上说，美国仍是石油巨头的国度。


Americans are bombarded by industry-funded media downplaying climate change, while countries that are much poorer in fossil fuels are already making the necessary transition to a low-carbon future.	美国人整天受到行业资助的媒体的狂轰滥炸，淡化气候变化问题，而化石燃料比美国匮乏得多的国家一开始着手进行迈向低碳未来的必要转型。


Two neighbors in Europe, Germany and France, are showing the way forward – or, more precisely, the alternative ways forward – to a low-carbon future.	欧洲的两个邻国，德国和法国正在向我们展示通往低碳未来之路——更准确地说，是新道路。


They are going about it in ways that reflect their different resource endowments, industrial histories, and political pressures.	它们根据各自不同的禀赋、行业历史和政治压力选择着不同道路。


Germany is undertaking the Energiewende, or transition to sustainable energy – a remarkable effort (indeed, unprecedented for a large advanced economy) to meet the country’s entire energy demand with renewable energy, especially solar and wind power.	德国走的是Energiewende，即转向可持续能源，这是一个用可再生能源，特别是太阳能和风电满足德国全部能源需求的伟大工程（事实上，从未有发达国家有此先例）。


Meanwhile, France relies heavily on low-carbon nuclear power, and is switching rapidly to electric vehicles, such as the pioneering Renault-Nissan Leaf.	与此同时，法国将严重依赖低碳核电，并在快速推广电动汽车，比如最尖端的雷诺-日产Leaf。


Of the two approaches, Germany’s is the more unusual bet.	在这两条路中，德国之路更加非常。


After Japan’s nuclear disaster at Fukushima, Germany decided to shut down its entire nuclear power industry and shift entirely to a strategy based on greater energy efficiency (lower energy input per unit of national income) and renewables.	日本福岛核事故后，德国决定完全关闭核电工业，转向基于提高能源效率（更低单位国民收入能源投入量）和可再生能源。


There really is no clear roadmap for such a huge energy transformation, and Germany almost surely will need to rely on a European-wide electricity grid to share clean energy, and eventually on imported solar power from North Africa and the Middle East.	如此巨大的能源转型确实没有清晰的路线图可供依据，德国几乎肯定需要依赖泛欧洲电网共享清洁能源，并最终需要从北美和中东进口太阳能。


France’s bet on nuclear power is a more proven option.	法国的押注核电是较成熟的选择。


After all, most of France’s electricity has come from nuclear power for many years.	毕竟，多年前法国就已经实现大部分电力靠核电供应。


And, though anti-nuclear sentiment is very strong in Europe – and, increasingly, even in France – nuclear power will remain part of the global energy mix for decades to come, simply because much of Asia (including China, India, South Korea, and Japan) will remain major users of it.	此外，尽管反核情绪在欧洲颇为高涨——即使在法国也在水涨船高——核电仍是未来几十年全球能源供应的一部分，这一点只要亚洲（包括中国、印度、韩国和日本）仍是核电大用户即可保证。


The key point is that France and Germany, and many other European countries – including the Scandinavian countries, with their considerable wind and hydropower potential – are all recognizing that the world as a whole will have to move away from a fossil-fuel-based energy system.	关键在于，法国和德国以及其他许多欧洲国家——包括拥有丰富风能和水能的斯堪的纳维亚国家——都在考虑世界作为一个整体必须摆脱以化石燃料为基础的能源体系。


That is the right calculation.	这个结论是正确的。


Many will no doubt argue about which alternative – France’s bet on nuclear power or Germany’s solar pathway – is wiser.	哪条新道路更明智——法国的核电还是德国的太阳能——远未可知。


But both strategies are probably correct.	但两种战略可能都不错。


Most studies show that deep de-carbonization of the world economy from now to mid-century, a time horizon mandated by environmental realities, will require that all low-carbon options – including greater efficiency and renewables – be scaled up massively.	大部分研究表明，行现在开始到本世纪中叶，世界将经历深刻的去碳化，这个时间长度是由环境现实决定的。 去碳化要求所有低碳选择——包括提高能源效率和可再生能源——都要大幅扩大规模。


One of the highest priorities of the new Sustainable Development Solutions Network, which I direct on behalf of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, will be to elaborate alternative pathways to a low-carbon economy, taking into account the specific conditions of countries around the world.	一项当务之急是由我代表联合国秘书长潘基文主管的新的可持续发展解决方案网络（Sustainable Development Solutions Network）能够详尽地规划通往低碳经济的新道路，考虑世界各国的具体条件。


Different countries will choose different strategies, but we will all need to get to the same place: a new energy system built on low-carbon sources, electrification of vehicles, and smart, energy-efficient buildings and cities.	不同国家可以选择不同战略，但所有国家都需要到达同一个终点：基于低碳资源、汽车电动化和智能节能建筑和城市的新的能源体系。


Early movers may pay a slightly higher price today for these strategies, but they and the world will reap long-term economic and environmental benefits.	先行者或许会在当下付出更高的代价，但它们和全世界会因此收获长期经济和环境好处。


By embracing truly sustainable technologies, France, Germany, and others are creating the energy system that will increasingly support the world economy throughout this century.	通过采用真正可持续的技术，法国、德国和其他国家正在创造一个更能支持世界经济安然度过本世纪的能源体系。


Building on the Euro	仰仗欧元


The euro is now six years old. It is past time to consider how it is performing, and whether it has lived up to the expectations that accompanied its birth.	欧元诞生已经6年了，再也不用凭空猜测它的作用和是否能满足诞生时人们的厚望了。


Those expectations were not modest.	人们对欧元寄予了很高的期望。


By reducing transaction costs and removing exchange-rate uncertainty, the single European currency was expected to lead to fully integrated product and financial markets. This, in turn, would bring greater gains from trade, stronger competition, larger cross-border capital flows, lower borrowing costs, and more opportunities for sharing risk, all of which were expected ultimately to boost investment and productivity.	通过降低交易成本和消除汇率不确定的风险，人们热切地盼望这种单一的欧洲货币能带来完全融合的产品和金融市场，而这又最终意味着更多的贸易收益、更强的竞争力、更多的资金跨国流动、更低的借贷成本和更多的风险共担机会，人们寄希望于上述所有因素结合在一起，能够最终促进投资、提高生产率。


Reality has disappointed.	但现实却让人们失望了。


Compared to the five years before the euro’s launch in 1999, productivity growth has since slowed in Italy, Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands, while over the same period it accelerated or remained constant in Denmark, Sweden, and the UK, the European Union members that remained out.	与1999年欧元启动前的5年间相比，意大利、德国、西班牙和荷兰等国的生产率增长都有所下降，而在同一时期，丹麦、瑞典、英国等没有参与欧元计划的成员国生产率却保持不变，甚至还有所增长。


Indeed, with the main exception of France, the euro does not seem to have been a blessing for the countries that adopted it.	实际上，除法国以外，欧元似乎并没有给其它参与国带来福音。


Why this disappointment?	结果为什么会令人失望？


Have the expected benefits of the new currency failed to materialize?	人们预期中新货币的好处是否没能变成现实？


Several recent economic studies addressed this question, looking at a variety of indicators.	通过研究若干指数，前不久完成的几项经济研究探讨了这个问题。


Here is what emerges:	研究结果如下：


· The single currency  has boosted international trade within the euro area, by about 10%.	· 单一货币确实促进了欧元区国际贸易的发展，增长比率约为10%。


Although a larger effect was expected, it remains too early for a complete assessment.	虽然这与人们的希望还有距离，但全面评价还为时尚早。


In any case, this is an important positive outcome, because international trade is generally regarded as a key determinant of faster growth and higher efficiency.	无论如何，这是个重要的积极因素，因为国际贸易普遍被看作高速和高效的关键因素。


· The euro was expected to increase price transparency, thereby strengthening competition in product markets.	· 人们预计欧元能提高价格透明度，从而使产品市场竞争更为激烈。


No evidence exists that this happened.	没有证据显示欧元起到了这样的作用。


Prices did converge during the implementation of the Single Market program, in the early 1990’s, but then price convergence stopped.	在20世纪90年代初单一市场计划的起始阶段价格确曾有所靠拢，但后来很快就停止了。


· Cross-border investment towards the euro area has increased, although here it is more difficult to disentangle the effect of the single currency from other concomitant events (such as privatizations or corporate mergers).	· 对欧元区的跨国投资的确有所增长，但要将单一货币和其它衍生事件（比如私有化和企业兼并）的效果区分开来显得更加困难。


· Money and bond markets are now fully integrated in the euro area, implying a reduction in the cost of capital for large corporate borrowers.	· 目前欧元区的货币和债券市场已经实现了统一，也就是说大公司借款的资金成本有所下降。


Retail banking, however, remains segmented by national borders, so that households and smaller producers have not been much affected.	而零售银行业仍然条块分割，因此家庭和小生产者的借贷成本没什么变化。


· The euro was expected to acquire an international role, eventually improving Europe’s resilience in the face of economic shocks.	· 人们希望欧元能成为国际货币，最终提高欧洲抵御经济冲击的能力。


There has been a surge in euro-denominated international bonds, but the liquidity of foreign-exchange markets is no higher for the euro compared to the national currencies it replaced, and the euro remains a long way from challenging the supremacy of the dollar.	用欧元发行的国际债券价格迅速上升，但欧元外汇市场的流动性并不比它所取代的国家货币强多少，而要想挑战美元的统治地位欧元也还有很长的路要走。


Of course, the euro was never just an economic project.	当然，欧元从来就不只有单纯的经济意义。


One of its backers’ main motives was to boost Europe’s political integration.	欧元支持者主要的动机之一就是促进欧洲的政治融合。


Indeed, the euro has quickly become a symbol of European unity.	实际上，欧元迅速地成为欧洲统一的象征。


When asked, “What does the EU mean to you personally,” 50% of citizens in the 15 countries that were EU members before enlargement in May 2004 say “the euro” – the second most common response (just behind “the ability to travel, study, and work anywhere in the EU”).	当被问及“欧盟对你个人意味着什么”时，2004年5月欧盟扩张之前15个原成员国50%的公民都回答“欧元”¾这种回答的普遍性居第二位（仅次于“在欧盟各地旅游、学习和工作的能力”）。


Yet, this symbol has not made the EU or the euro area any more popular.	但这项标志并未使欧盟和欧元区更受人欢迎。


Support for EU membership within the pre-enlargement EU-15 remains where it was in the mid-1990’s (and below the peak reached in 1990), while support for the euro is no higher now than it was in 1997.	欧盟扩张前15国对联盟的支持率仍然是20世纪90年代的水平（比20世纪90年代的最高水平有所下降），而对欧元的支持率也不比1997年的时候高。


To be sure, the introduction of the euro was a true revolution, and we cannot yet see all its effects.	可以肯定的是，欧元的引入是一次真正意义的革命，我们现在还无法看到它所有的效果。


But what is clear is that the revolution took place on shaky national economic foundations, transforming the upper floors of the European economy – financial markets and macroeconomic policy institutions – while leaving intact the  ancien underpinnings of supply-side distortions induced by misguided national policies in the 1970’s and 1980’s.	但有一点是十分清楚的：这次革命是在脆弱的国家经济基础之上发生的，它所改革的是欧洲经济的上层建筑¾金融市场和宏观经济制度¾而保留了20世纪七八十年代错误的国家政策所造成供应经济扭曲的原有基础。


These distortions, not any shortcomings of the single currency, account for the euro area’s dismal economic performance.	造成欧元区经济表现低迷的正是这些扭曲，而不是单一货币的缺陷。


The countries that adopted the euro had poor labor-market institutions, bloated pension systems, high taxes on labor income, and inefficient service sectors in the late 1990’s, and they still do now.	欧元的采用国20世纪90年代末就不得不面对糟糕的劳工市场制度，过于庞大的养老金体系、对劳动者收入的高额税收和效率低下的服务部门，这个问题到今天也还没有解决。


The more fundamental problem with the euro is that its adoption has not pushed countries to address these underlying deficiencies.	欧元更本质的问题是它的采纳并未促使各个国家解决这些潜在问题。


It was expected that full integration of product and financial markets would expose inefficiencies, steering investment flows away from laggards towards the more efficient countries.	人们曾经希望产品和金融市场的彻底融合会暴露哪些低效行业，把资金流从发展迟缓的国家转移到更加高效的使用者。


Yet, while reform efforts intensified throughout Europe in the late 1990’s both inside and outside of the euro area, there is little evidence that “ins” enacted more far-reaching and significant supply-side reforms than the “outs.”	可尽管20世纪90年代包括欧元区内外的整个欧洲改革力度都有所加大，但并没有多少证据表明“区内”国比“区外”国实行了更多意义深远的重大供应改革。


Larry Summers, the former US Treasury Secretary and now president of Harvard University, once called the single European currency a “distraction” from the serious supply-side reforms Europe needed to confront.	担任过美国财政部长的哈佛大学校长萨莫斯曾把单一欧洲货币称为欧洲需要面对的真正供应改革的“干扰因素”。


This judgment may be too harsh, because we do not know whether the EU and the single market would have survived without the single currency.	这样的判断未免太过严厉，因为我们不知道没有单一货币的欧盟和统一市场到底还能不能生存。


But one thing is certain: Europe cannot afford other “distractions.”	但有一点可以肯定：那��是欧洲再也不能因为其它事情“分心”了。


Overhauling Europe’s shaky supply-side foundations is the key challenge facing the euro revolution, and it is a challenge that needs to be addressed at its national-level roots.	检查欧洲摇摇欲坠的供应经济基础是欧元改革不得不面对的关键挑战，而这项挑战需要各国从根源上彻底的解决。


Building on the Global Recovery	在全球复苏的基础上再接再励


The world is a study in contrasts nowadays. We are haunted by images of terror and warfare.	当今世界各种对立的现象并存。


Yet every region of the globe has experienced some of the strongest economic growth seen in years, inflation remains subdued despite surging oil prices, and financial markets are doing well.	恐怖和战争的景象不断烦扰着人们，然而全球各个地区都不同程度地经历了多年来最强劲的经济增长。 尽管油价飙升，通货膨胀却保持在低水平，金融市场也势态良好。


Several economies that recently faced financial crises are rebounding strongly.	几个近来遭遇了金融危机的经济体出现强势的反弹。


At the same time, much more needs to be done to help prevent future crises and reduce poverty.	但与此同时，要防止未来的危机，减少贫困，需要做的事情还很多很多。


What do these contrasts mean for the future?	这些对立的现象对未来有何影响？


The answer depends crucially on how each country and the international community respond to key policy challenges: addressing global imbalances through macroeconomic policies and long-overdue reform; meeting the costs of aging populations; strengthening defenses against economic and financial crises; and delivering on the pressing imperatives of poverty reduction.	答案关键取决于各个国家和国际社会如何面对重要的政策挑战：通过宏观经济政策和早就应该实行的改革，解决全球不平衡的问题； 负担老龄化人口的花费；


Recently, financial leaders from 184 countries met in Washington at the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank.	最近，来自184个国家的金融首脑在华盛顿参加国际货币基金组织和世界银行的年会。


This year marks the sixtieth anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference that established those two organizations as pillars of international economic cooperation.	今年是建立了这两个国际经济合作支柱的布雷顿森林会议的六十周年。


As IMF Managing Director, my message was one of vigilance and action.	作为国际货币基金组织的常务董事，我要讲的是警惕和行动。


Simply put, the international community must take advantage of the current recovery to broaden efforts to ensure financial and economic stability, and help those countries with limited prospects.	简单地说，就是国际社会必须利用当前的复苏，扩大努力，确保金融和经济的稳定，并向那些前景堪忧的国家伸出援手。


Periods of strong economic growth allow countries to put in place defenses to reduce the likelihood and severity of future downturns.	在经济增长强劲的时期，国家可以建立起防御机制，降低未来出现经济低迷的可能性和严重性。


But such opportunities are all too easy to squander.	但是这样的机会太容易被浪费掉了。


In an era of globalized financial markets, when countries can find it hard to cope with rapid cross-border capital flows, there is no time for complacency.	在这个金融市场全球化的时代，国家很难应付快速的跨国界资金流动，没有时间让我们沾沾自喜。


A lesson of the 1990's is that vulnerabilities must be dealt with before they become crises.	上世纪90年代留给我们的教训是，在弱点演变成危机之前就必须采取措施应对。


The world's rapid economic growth in 2004 shows that the efforts to shore up our defenses since the 1990's has paid off.	2004年世界性的快速经济增长表明，从上世纪90年代以来所做的建立防御机制的努力是卓有成效的。


But growth has been unbalanced: Europe and Japan - despite some recent gains - are far from reaching their potential, and the United States and China have continued largely to drive the world economy.	但是增长并不平衡：欧洲和日本--虽然最近略有回升--还远远没有发挥他们的潜力，而美国和中国仍然是世界经济的主要推动力。


One priority is to reduce global payments imbalances.	一个需要优先解决的问题就是要降低全球薪酬的不平衡。


The US must move to reduce its budget deficit in the medium-term.	美国必须行动起来，减少中期的预算赤字。


Europe and Japan can increase their growth by stepping up the pace of structural reform.	欧洲和日本可以通过加快结构改革的步伐保持增长。


Moves toward increased exchange rate flexibility in China and other Asian countries, supported by financial sector reform, will have domestic and global benefits.	中国和其他亚洲国家在金融部门改革的支持下提高汇率灵活性的措施将带来国内和全球性的利益。


Emerging market countries elsewhere have made considerable reform progress of late, but they must sustain the momentum to guard against potential shocks.	其他地方的新兴市场国家近来在改革方面取得了可观的进展，但是他们必须保持动力，预防潜在的动荡。


Other challenges loom.	另外还有其他迫在眉睫的挑战。


Issues that we once regarded as "medium-term" are becoming more urgent.	我们以前称之为"中期"的问题正在变得更加紧迫。


Aging populations are forcing many countries to address pressures on their budgets and social security systems.	老龄化人口正在迫使许多国家解决预算和社会保障体系所面临的压力。


The problem is imminent in North America, the Euro Area, and Japan.	这个问题在北美、欧元区和日本特别紧迫。


But, before long, many developing countries will also have to face up to it, and in many cases without a cushion of affluence.	但是不久之后，许多发展中国家也将面临这个问题，而且在许多地方没有财富的缓冲。


Then there is the energy issue.	然后还有能源问题。


High oil prices have resurrected an old vulnerability.	高油价使一个昔日的弱点死灰复燃。


Countries need to reformulate their energy policies - including by boosting production and refining capacity, diversifying energy sources, and giving new impetus to conservation.	各个国家需要重新制定各自的能源政策--包括提高生产和精炼能力，多样化能源，给节能注入新的动力。


A better balance between production and consumption would avoid large swings in oil prices.	在生产和消耗之间取得更佳的平衡，可以避免油价的大幅摇摆。


The IMF focuses on crisis prevention, and in the past decade encouraged greater transparency and stronger financial systems.	国际货币基金组织以预防危机为重点，在过去的十年鼓励建立更加透明稳定的金融制度。


The Fund also actively monitors capital market developments, and is implementing a more systematic assessment of debt sustainability.	本组织还积极地监督资金市场发展，目前正在实施一项更加系统化的债务可持续性评估。


There will always be ways to strengthen our work so that we provide well-articulated advice based on a clear understanding and the best analysis of each country.	我们总能找到方法加强我们的工作，以便在对每个国家的清楚了解和恰当分析的基础上提供明确的建议。


We need to communicate our positions clearly to policymakers and reinforce incentives for countries to take appropriate corrective actions.	我们需要把我们的立场明确地传达给决策者们，加强激励各国采取适当补救措施的动力。


But in the end, the effectiveness of our advice hinges on countries' willingness to act on our recommendations.	但是归根结底，我们的建议是否有效还是要取决于各国是否愿意按照我们的建议行动。


Poverty also threatens economic stability.	贫困问题也威胁着经济的稳定。


For all the successes of recent decades, the fact remains that 20% of the world's population still lives on less than $1 a day, while HIV/AIDS and other communicable diseases are ravaging many societies.	面对最近数十年来的所有成就，真实的情况一直是：世界上20%的人口仍然仅靠每天不足1美元的收入生活，同时艾滋病和其他传染病在许多国家肆虐。


Other social indicators offer a bleak picture.	其他的社会指标也描绘了一幅黯淡的画面。


Indeed, most developing countries are likely to fall short of the international community's target of halving poverty by 2015.	的确，大多数发展中国家都可能无法实现国际社会到2015年使贫困人口减少一半的目标。


In 2002, at the Monterrey Conference, the international community agreed on a framework for reaching that goal.	2002年，在蒙特雷会议上，国际社会达成一项实现这个目标的框架协议。


Developing countries would implement sound economic policies accompanied by good governance.	发展中国家将实施健康的经济政策，并施以良好的管理。


Industrial countries would increase aid levels and lower trade barriers. The IMF and World Bank would offer advice, expertise, and financing, with the Fund concentrating on the macroeconomic and financial stability that is crucial to fostering durable growth and poverty reduction.	工业化国家将提高援助水平，降低贸易壁垒���国际货币基金组织和世界银行将提供建议、专业知识和资金，其中本组织将集中应对对培养可持续增长和减少贫困至关重要的宏观经济及金融稳定问题。


Some progress has been made on this "Monterrey Consensus."	这项"蒙特雷协议"已经取得了一些进展。


But international support is falling far below promised levels.	但是国际援助远远没有达到承诺的水平。


Strong political commitments are needed to provide the aid that is needed to accelerate progress, and to secure success for the Doha trade round that is so crucial for developing countries' longer-term prospects.	我们需要坚定的政治决心，提供加速进步所需的援助，确保多哈贸易谈判成功--这对发展中国家的长远未来非常重要。


The resilience of the global economy in the face of political and economic shocks demonstrates the central relevance of the reform process - and underlines the importance of continuing along this path.	全球经济在政治和经济动荡中的复苏表明改革过程的核心实用性--并且说明继续沿着这条道路走下去的重要性。


Governments and institutions like the IMF must keep this in mind as they seek to ensure a durable economic recovery that will benefit all of the world's people.	各国政府和国际货币基金组织这样的机构在努力保持可持续经济复苏、为全世界人民谋福利的过程中必须把这一点铭记在心。


Resilient Pakistan?	坚韧不拔的巴基斯坦？


ISLAMABAD – Since mid-December, Pakistan has experienced political and economic volatility that is extraordinary even by Pakistani standards.	伊斯兰堡—自12月中旬以来，巴基斯坦经历了一系列政治和经济动荡，即使从巴基斯坦的标准看，这几次动荡也可谓剧烈。


The fragile political structure that began to be erected following the resumption of civilian government in 2008 is now shaking.	2008年文职政府重新上台之争后形成的脆弱的政治结构摇摇欲坠。


A key source of this unrest is Tahirul Qadri, a Toronto-based Muslim cleric who arrived in Lahore in early December.	一个主要乱源是一名来自多伦多的名叫塔德里（Tahirul Qadri）的穆斯林。


Ten days later, he addressed a mammoth public meeting at the city’s Minar-e-Pakistan grounds, where, a year earlier, the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan had launched what he not very appropriately termed a political tsunami.	12月初，他来到拉合尔，十天后，他在该市独立纪念塔广场的大型公众集会上发表了演讲。 一年前，板球运动员出身的政客的伊姆兰·汗（Imran Khan）在这里掀起了一场他称之为（尽管有些用词不当）政治海啸的风波。


Qadri issued a 20-day ultimatum to the government in Islamabad to purge the political system of rampant corruption, reconstitute the Election Commission, and appoint a caretaker administration to oversee the upcoming vote.	塔德里给伊斯兰堡政府发出了20天最后通牒，要求政府净化腐败猖獗的政治制度、重组选举委员会，并任命看守当局监督新选举。


The caretakers, he said, should include technocrats, retired military officers, and judges – and could remain in office longer than the constitutionally permitted 90 days.	他表示，看守当局应该包括技术官僚、退休军官和法官，持续时间应长于宪法规定90天。


Unless the government took these steps, he would lead a million-man march on the capital.	除非政府采取这些步骤，否则他将在首都组织百万人大游行。


When the government did not oblige, 50,000 people set out on the fabled Grand Trunk Road to Islamabad, taking 36 hours to complete the 300-kilometer trek.	政府拒绝服从，然后，5万人走向了充满传奇色彩的伊斯兰堡主干道（Grand Trunk Road），在36个小时内完成了300公里长征。


Qadri addressed the marchers repeatedly; liberally mixing political metaphors, he called himself a latter-day Mao Zedong on a journey to launch a system-cleansing jihad and initiate a Pakistani version of the Arab Spring.	塔德里数次向游行者发表演讲，有意散播政治隐喻，自称为当代毛泽东，正在发动一场净化制度的圣战，领导巴基斯坦版阿拉伯之春。


On January 10, while Qadri was planning his march, two suicide bombers sent by the extremist Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a banned Sunni group, attacked the Shia Hazara community in Quetta, killing almost a hundred people.	1月10日，在塔德里计划长征的同时，两名受极端组织坚格维军（Lashkar-e-Jhangvi，被禁止的逊尼派组织）派遣的人肉炸弹袭击了奎塔市的什叶派哈扎啦（Hazara）社区，造成近100人死亡。


The Hazaras reacted to the attack by making the coffins of the dead a symbol of protest.	哈扎啦对该袭击事件的反应是抬棺游行。


They lined up the dead on Alamdaar Street, which runs through the city’s Shia community, and refused to bury them until the government dismissed inept and corrupt local officials, led by a local nawab who spent more time abroad or in Islamabad than in the provincial capital.	他们将死者抬上贯穿该市什叶派社区的阿兰达尔大街（Alamdaar Street），并拒绝在政府开除无能腐败的地方官员前下葬，当地行政长官在国外和伊斯兰堡呆的时间比在省会更长。


The government succumbed and removed the chief minister and his cabinet, placing the troubled province under the care of the provincial governor.	政府屈服了，撤消了行政长官及其班子，由省长暂时主管这一麻烦重重的省。


Five days later, Pakistan’s ever-active Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf and 16 other senior government officials for alleged involvement in what was called the “rental power” case.	五天后，活跃的巴基斯坦最高法院以涉嫌所谓的“电力租赁”案为由下令逮捕总理阿什拉夫和16名其他政府高官。


The case dates back to 2008-2011, when Ashraf, who was Minister of Water and Power at the time, oversaw large contracts to rent power generators, which were needed to ease an electricity shortage that was costing the economy up to 5% of GDP.	该案可以追溯到2008—2011年，阿什拉夫当时担任水电部长，监督租赁发电机组的巨额合同，当时，缺点给巴基斯坦经济造成的成本高达GDP的5%。


Several reports in the print and electronic media suggested that the contracts awarded by Ashraf’s ministry were tainted.	纸媒和电子媒体的一些报告表明，阿什拉夫所主管的部门所给出的合同有猫腻。


The finance ministry called in the Asian Development Bank, which confirmed that a large amount of money had leaked from the agreements, and that many of the rental units generated much less power than promised.	财政部求助亚洲开发银行，后者确认大量资金从发电机组租赁协议中漏出，许多租赁单位的发电量远低于承诺值。


The Supreme Court took note of the ADB’s findings and started proceedings against Ashraf and other senior officials, including several from the finance ministry.	最高法院注意到了亚洲开发银行的发现，开始审理针对阿什拉夫和其他高官（包括一些财政部官员）的案件。


Ashraf resigned from the cabinet, only to be brought back later as Prime Minister.	阿什拉夫从内阁辞职，后来又出任总理。


In earlier times, crises of much lesser intensity would have brought the military rushing onto the political stage, as happened in 1958, 1969, 1977, and 1999.	追溯历史可以发现，程度轻得多的危机就会导致军方重返政坛，1958年、1969年、1977年和1999年都发生过此类事件。


Indeed, the army has ruled Pakistan for a total of 33 years since independence in 1947.	事实上，自1947年独立以来，军队掌管巴基斯坦的年份多达33年。


But this time the soldiers have remained in their barracks, for the simple reason that an awakened populace, an active civil society, and a free and vibrant media would not tolerate another venture into politics by the army.	但这一回，军队并未走出军营，原因很简单：觉醒的民众、活跃的公民社会和充满活力的自由媒体不会容忍政治再次落入军方之手。


After almost five years of democratic rule, Pakistan is on its way to establishing a durable and representative political order.	在经历了五年的民主治理后，巴基斯坦正在建立持久的代议制政治秩序。


While it has not produced clean and efficient government, there seems to be considerable comfort in the popular belief that, by working together, Pakistanis will find a way out of the mess in which the country finds itself.	尽管廉洁高效的政府尚未产生，但公众满怀信心的认为，主要同心协力，巴基斯坦定会找出一条走出混乱局面的道路。


A late-evening meeting of most opposition parties in Lahore on January 16 rejected Qadri’s demands, while telling the government to stay the course toward the general election.	1月16日，拉合尔大部分反对党举行连夜会议，拒绝了塔德里的要求，同时通知政府坚守到大选。


A day later, the government found a face-saving formula to send the preacher-politician – and, more important, his followers – home, promising that the Election Commission will be given the time to determine candidates’ eligibility under the relevant constitutional provisions.	一天后，政府找到了挽回颜面的办法，将这位牧师政客——更重要的，还有他的追随者——遣送回国，并承诺给选举委员会时间以确定候选人是否符合选举法的相关规定。


So, in a way, Qadri’s arrival in Pakistan and his intense political activism have served a purpose: he has reinforced the people’s faith in a system that they are continuing to build.	因此，从某种程度上说，塔德里的巴基斯坦之行及其强烈的政治激进主义达到了目的：他增强了人民的对他们正在建设的制度的信念。


Building Palestine From the Bottom Up	自下而上地建立巴勒斯坦国


JERUSALEM – As President Barack Obama’s special Middle East envoy, former US Senator George Mitchell, learned during his visit to the region, America’s efforts at Israeli-Palestinian peace-making are running up against three major obstacles.	耶路撒冷——作为巴拉克·奥巴马总统的中东问题特使，前美国参议员乔治·米切尔在对中东地区的访问中获悉，有三大障碍阻碍美国为以巴和平所付出的努力取得成果。


They will, no doubt, also arise in Obama’s upcoming meetings with the region’s leaders.	毫无疑问，奥巴马在与地区领袖即将举行的会议上也将提到这些问题。


The first obstacle – indeed, the issue that stands front and center today – is the ongoing Palestinian civil war, with Hamas controlling the Gaza Strip in defiance of Abu Mazen’s Fatah-led Palestinian Authority.	持续不断的巴勒斯坦内战便是第一大障碍——实际上也是今天最突出的核心问题。 控制加沙地带的哈马斯没有把由法塔赫阿布·马赞领导的巴勒斯坦当局放在眼里。


The Palestinians’ basic failure at nation-building makes any meaningful peace talks with Israel – let alone an agreement – almost impossible at the moment.	巴勒斯坦在基础建国问题上的一无所成导致目前几乎不可能与以色列进行任何有意义的和平谈判——更不要说签订协议了。


With Palestinians unable to agree among themselves on a minimal national consensus, how can peace be established between them and Israel?	在巴勒斯坦人无法达成最起码的国家共识的情况下，又如何能在他们和以色列中间实现和平呢？


Second, with Likud’s Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister, Israel now has a government which is far less likely to be willing – or able – to make major concessions and evacuate hundreds of thousands of Israeli settlers from the West Bank.	其次，在利库德集团的本杰明·内塔尼亚胡担任总理的情况下，以色列的现政府愿意——或者能够——做出重大让步，从西岸撤出数十万以色列定居者的可能性大大降低。


Third, and most significantly, the 1993 Israel-PLO agreement has until now failed to achieve its aim.	第三点，也是最重要的一点，1993年以色列与巴解组织签订的协议到目前为止并未达到既定的目的。


Attempts to revive the Oslo peace process – the “Road Map” and the Annapolis process – have similarly failed to achieve more than vacuous declarations and hollow photo opportunities.	恢复奥斯陆和平进程的努力——“路线图”和安纳波利斯计划——同样也未能突破空洞的宣言和毫无意义的拍照机会。


The causes of these 15 years of failure should be considered, so that Mitchell’s mission does not become another stillborn effort.	15年来失败的原因值得总结，这样米切尔此行才不会又一次胎死腹中。