On the labor-market side, the most powerful lever to bolster the majority’s wellbeing would be to increase the employment of women, whose workforce-participation rate still lags behind that of men by as much as 40% globally.	在劳动力市场方面，支撑大众福祉的最有力的杠杆莫过于扩大女性就业，全球范围内女性的就职率仍落后男性40%之多。


Including more women presupposes better childcare and other social support in many countries, as well as further progress on pay equality, including the more equal taxation of second earners.	实现女性就业在很多国家需要改善儿童教育和社会支持，还需要进一步提升薪酬平等，包括对家庭第二就业者实行更加平等的税收。


Moreover, MGI estimates that addressing barriers like mandatory retirement ages and perverse tax incentives could add about 200 million workers over the age of 65 to the world’s labor pool.	此外，麦肯锡全球研究院估计取消像强制退休年龄的和反向税收激励政策可以为世界劳动力队伍增加约2亿名65岁以上的工人。


Efforts to reduce youth unemployment would also help.	努力降低年轻人的失业率也会起到作用。


These changes, while important, would have a limited impact, lifting labor’s contribution to future growth from one-fifth to only one-third of post-war levels.	这些改革措施虽然重要但影响却相对有限，只能将劳动力对未来经济增长的贡献从战后水平的五分之一提升至三分之一。


What the world really needs to do is accelerate productivity – not at a modest pace, but at the economic equivalent of warp speed.	这个世界真正需要的是加速提高生产力——我们需要的不是适度提高，而是在经济领域实现经线速度。


Fortunately, today’s private-sector labs are bursting with innovations that could spark major productivity-enhancing technological and operational improvements.	幸运的是，今天的私营部门实验室不乏创新成果，完全可能引发重大的生产力提高和技术营运改进。


Advanced materials like nanolaminates (edible lipids) can, when sprayed on food, provide protection from air or moisture and reduce spoilage.	其中将纳米层（食用油脂）等先进材料喷涂在食品表面可以隔绝空气和水分，从而减少腐败的发生。


Carbon-fiber composites are making cars and airplanes both more resistant and lighter, reducing their fuel consumption.	用碳纤维复合材料制造的汽车和飞机更轻也更耐腐蚀，而且能降低油耗。


And the “Internet of things” will rationalize production processes by detecting potential failures early, boost crop yields by measuring the moisture of fields, and dramatically reduce the cost of remotely monitoring patients’ health.	同时“物联网”可以合理安排生产工艺并早期发现潜在故障，监测土地湿度以提高作物产量，并显著降低远程监控患者健康的费用。


Just a little further out on the productivity frontier are commercially viable self-driving cars and trucks.	生产力前沿稍远处就是具有商业应用价值的自动驾驶汽车和卡车。


Likewise, synthetic biology will be possible before too long, with scientists using the huge amount of increasingly available and inexpensive genetic data to design DNA from scratch – a practice that has applications in medicine, agriculture, and even biofuel production.	同样，合成生物学用不了多久就会成为现实，届时科学家将利用数量巨大且不断增加的廉价基因数据从零开始设计DNA——这项技术在医学、农业甚至是生物燃料制造领域具有广阔的应用前景。


But the private sector cannot realize this potential alone.	但是私营部门无法单独实现这样的前景。


Most countries need increased public-sector investment to support essential long-term research and development, and smarter, more innovation-friendly regulation to facilitate future gains.	多数国家需要增加公共部门投资以支持重要的长期研发，还要制定明智、更利于创新的法规以推升日后的利润。


Because the biggest opportunities lie in spurring faster productivity catch-up by adopting and diffusing today’s best practices, politicians must keep pushing to reduce trade and regulatory barriers to market integration and competition.	因为最大的机会在于通过采纳和推广今天的最佳做法以推动快速的生产力赶超，政治家们必须继续推动削减贸易和监管障碍，以促进市场一体化和竞争。


Perhaps most important, labor markets must be made as flexible as possible, with well-trained workers secured by strong social-safety nets.	也许最重要的是劳动力市场必须做到尽可能灵活，为工人提供优质培训和强大的社会安全网。


This would enable workers to weather the transition to the jobs of the future and allow the economy to benefit from new waves of wealth and value-generating creative destruction.	这将使工人能够承受像未来岗位转型的过渡，并让经济受益于新一轮创造财富和价值的创造性破坏浪潮。


It is worth recalling that more than one-third of employment growth in the US since 1990 has come from jobs that did not exist, or barely existed, 25 years ago.	值得注意的是美国自1990年代以来超过三分之一的就业增长都来自于25年前根本或几乎不存在的工作岗位。


Some countries may even want to consider appointing a “growth czar” to connect all of these policy dots.	某些国家可能甚至考虑任命一位“增长沙皇”负责在所有这些政策点间建立联系。


In the end, however, the actual growth figures are not the point.	但归根结底实际的增长数字并非重点。


What matters is ensuring that the wellbeing of as many citizens as possible is improving – and that requires concerted action by business leaders, governments, and civil society.	重要的是在商界领袖、政府和民间社会的共同努力下确保尽可能多的民众福祉不断提高。


“Techno-optimists,” for their part, believe that ICT advances do have the potential to drive rapid productivity growth; their benefits are merely subject to lags and come in waves.	而“技术乐观论者”相信信息和通讯技术的进步有望推动生产率的迅速提高； 只不过它们的收��有些滞后并且呈现波动特征。


Today’s Productivity Paradox	当今的生产力困局


NEW YORK – Recent trends in productivity growth make it hard to be optimistic about the future.	纽约 ——生产率增长的最新趋势让人很难对未来感到乐观。


In 2014, the global growth of total factor productivity, or TFP, which measures the combined productivity of capital and labor, was essentially zero for the third consecutive year. This was down from 1% in 1996-2006 and 0.5% in the crisis years of 2007-2012.	在2014年，衡量资本与劳动生产率总和的全要素生产力在全球范围内的增长已经连续第三年停留在零左右，而这个数字在1996~2006年，以及2007~2012年的危机期间都还分别有1%和0.


And, by every indication, 2015 has been no less dismal.	5%。 同时种种迹象表明2015年也会同样惨淡。


In the US, revised data released at the beginning of December show productivity up only 0.6% year on year in the third quarter.	在美国，十二月初公布的修订后第三季度生产力数据同比仅增长了0. 6％。


If the underlying rate of TFP growth has in fact fallen from its historical norm of 1.5% per year to near zero in countries like the United States, then the living standards of today’s young adults will rise much more slowly than those of their parents.	如果连美国这些国家的全要素生产力基本增长速度实际上都已经从过去每年1. 5％的常态降到接近零，那么当今年轻人的生活水平将比其父辈提升得更慢。


Any increase will depend entirely on improvements in education and training, which are absent from the data, and from investment in equipment and structures, which is depressed relative to historical levels.	任何提升都将完全取决于在教育和培训方面的改善，而这并未在数据中显示； 或者依靠对设备和基础设施的投资来改善，但这方面也已经低于历史水平。


Economists such as Robert Gordon of Northwestern University argue that this slump in productivity growth reflects the stagnation of technology.	西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）等一批经济学家认为生产率增长的大跌反映了技术的停滞。


Gordon argues that all of the epochal advances, from running water and electricity to the internal combustion and jet engines, have been made.	戈登认为，所有划时代的进步——从自来水和电力到内燃机和喷气发动机——都已经完成。


The positive effect of instant messaging and video gaming on productivity and living standards pales in comparison.	相比之下，即时通讯和视频游戏对生产力和生活水平的促进作用简直是小巫见大巫。


This conclusion will strike many people – especially those of us who live on the fringes of Silicon Valley – as implausible.	这一结论将令许多人——特别是那些居住在硅谷外围地区的人们——感到震惊并难以信服。


We see radical technological advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and materials design going on all around us.	因为我们亲眼看到了在机器人技术，人工智能，生物技术和材料设计方面的大踏步飞跃。


One view, popular among economic historians, is that it takes time for the productivity-enhancing effects of new technologies to show up.	一种极受经济史学家欢迎的观点认为，新技术对生产力的提升作用是需要时间来逐步展现的。


Indeed, when radical innovations are first rolled out, their immediate effect is to reduce, not raise, productivity.	事实上，当那些开创性创新首次推出的时候，其直接效果是降低而非提高生产率。


Electricity, the new technology studied by the eminent Stanford University economic historian Paul David, is a classic case in point.	根据斯坦福大学知名经济史学家保罗·戴维（Paul David）的研究，当年作为新技术的电力就是个典型的例子。


As David explains, before electric motors were installed in factories, machines were arranged around centralized steam engines, to which they were connected by belts and pulleys.	保罗解释说，在工厂引进电动机之前，机器都围绕着蒸汽机来布置，由皮带和滑轮进行连接。


Self-standing electrical motors allowed machines, the workers operating them, and their activities all to be reorganized in more efficient ways.	而自立式电动机则允许机器，操作工人，以及生产活动以更有效的方式进行重组。


But this reorganization took time.	但是这种重组需要时间。


Meanwhile, established modes of production were “disrupted,” in twenty-first-century business-school parlance, causing productivity to fall.	按照21世纪的商学院的说法是对既定的生产模式进行“破坏”，导致工作效率下降。


But this slump in productivity was actually a harbinger of better times.	但这种低迷的生产率实际上预示着一个更好的时代。


Another prominent economist, Harvard’s Lawrence Summers, has objected that this story is incompatible with a second recent trend, namely declining employment of men aged 25-54.	另一位著名经济学家，哈佛大学的劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）则对此表示反对，认为这个故事和另一个最新趋势——25-54岁的男性就业率下降——无法匹配。


If productivity has fallen temporarily because everyone is hard at work at the twenty-first-century equivalent of reorganizing the factory floor, then the employment rate should be going up, not down, as firms continue to operate their old “steam-powered machinery” at the same time they are adding new “electrical capacity.”	如果生产率是因为每个人都在努力重组21世纪的工厂车间而暂时下降，那么就业率应该上升而非下降，因为企业继续运行自身旧“蒸汽机”的同时也在增加新的“电动机”。


Employment of prime-age males should be rising, not falling.	因此中青年男性就业应当不降反升。


But this will be true only if new twenty-first-century technologies require significant amounts of labor to develop and install, compared to the jobs they disrupt and eliminate.	但这只有当新的21世纪技术需要极大量劳动力——相对于其破坏并消灭的工作岗位——去开发和安装的时候才是正确的。


This is not obviously the case.	但情况显然并非如此。


My favorite example is electronic medical records (my wife is a doctor), which have tremendous potential to enhance the efficiency of health-care delivery in the US.	我最喜欢举的例子是电子病历（我的妻子是医生），其中存在着巨大���潜力去以提高美国医疗保健服务的效率。


Even today, most information on patient care is transmitted between clinics and hospitals, and between generalists and specialists, by fax and telephone.	即便今时今日，大部分信息的病人诊疗信息依然是在诊所和医院之间，以及全科医生与专科医生之间，通过传真和电话进行传输。


A less efficient system is hard to imagine – other, that is, than attempting to coordinate patient care in the traditional way while undertaking the transition to electronic record keeping.	你很难想象有哪个系统比这个更缺乏效率——除了以传统方式协调病人护理的同时尝试过渡到电子病历。


New systems are being adopted and serially abandoned as their deficiencies are discovered.	新的系统不断被安装，随后又因其不足之处而被弃用。


Different medical clinics and hospitals are installing systems that are incompatible and unable to communicate with one another.	不同的医疗诊所和医院都安装了不兼容且无法相互通信的系统。


In the long run, doctors will look back on all of this as healthy experimentation.	从长远来看，医生将会把所有这一切视为有用的实验。


For the moment, however, they are tearing their hair out.	然而目前他们正为此无比烦躁。


They are delivering less patient care as they spend more time hunched over their laptops, inputting data that add nothing, currently, to their productivity.	他们为病人提供的医疗服务减少了，因为要花更多的时间埋头于笔记本电脑输入数据，但这一切，至少目前来说，却并未提升他们的工作效率。


Moreover, the number of people working at developing electronic medical systems is small relative to the number of medical professionals suffering the effects of this imperfect transitional technology.	此外，相对于受这种不完美过渡技术影响的专业医疗人员的数量来说，投身于开发电子医疗系统的工作人员数量较少。


Indeed, the number of such people may be even smaller than that of medical professionals who have dropped out of the field in frustration over being unable to deliver care at the standard they were trained to provide.	事实上，这类人的数量可能比那些因为无法提供专业训练所要求的医疗标准愤而抛弃这些系统的医学专家更少。


I am happy to refer those seeking further particulars to one such former practicing physician: my wife.	我很高兴地推荐一位曾经使用这类系统的执业医师给那些希望进一步了解这些问题的人：我的夫人。


The Profitability of Trust	信任的盈利能力


GENEVA – The effects of the most devastating financial crisis in decades have begun to fade. But debate about the fundamentals of the global economy is far from over.	发自日内瓦——虽然这场数十年来最严重金融危机的影响已经逐渐消退，但关于全球经济基本面的争论还远未结束。


Indeed, there has been a new wave of heated discussion about whether companies should put profits or the common good first.	事实上，关于公司应该把利润还是公共利益放在第一位的议题正掀起新一轮的讨论热潮。


Milton Friedman, a leading proponent of the profit-oriented approach to corporate management, famously declared that “the business of business is business.”	米尔顿•弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)——盈利导向型企业管理方法的主要倡导者，有一个著名观点：“企业该做的经营就是经营好企业自身（the business of business is business）”。


Indeed, from this standpoint, there is no contradiction between profit maximization and the common good.	事实上，从这个角度来看，利润最大化和公共利益之间并不存在矛盾。


The pursuit of profit itself is a socially beneficial goal.	追求利润本身就是一个对社会有益的目标。


A conceptual basis for the opposing perspective, to which I adhere, lies in the Harvard economist Michael Porter’s theory of shared value creation.	而我所坚持的观点与此对立，其概念基础则构建于哈佛大学经济学家迈克尔·波特（Michael Porter）的共享价值创造理论之上。


In fact, my own publications promote the stakeholder concept as the framework for a modern understanding of socially responsible corporate management.	实际上，我撰写的系列文章都推崇将利益相关者概念应作为当下理解企业社会责任管理的框架。


The theoretical debate could continue indefinitely.	理论的争辩可能会无限期地延续下去。


But, in terms of practical company management, such ideological polarization is not particularly useful.	但对企业管理的实际操作而言，这种意识形态的两极分化并不是特别有用。


If managers had to choose between fulfilling the expectations of shareholders and meeting their social and ethical responsibilities, their companies would probably collapse.	如果管理者必须在满足股东的期望和满足自身社会和道德责任之间做出选择，那公司很有可能会崩溃。


Instead, successful managers recognize that any company is both an economic and social entity, and thus that no stakeholder can be neglected.	与此相反，成功的管理者认识到企业既是经济实体又是社会实体，因此没有任何一个利益相关者可以被忽视。


As I wrote more than four decades ago, a company, “like an organism…depends on several arteries,” all of which it must nurture if it hopes to survive and grow.	正如我四十多年前所写，一个公司“就像一个器官……依赖于几条动脉”，如果希望实现自身的生存和成长，就必须维持所有这些血管的健康。


That sounds straightforward. But it can be very difficult when the demands of, say, the company’s shareholders conflict with the interests of its employees, customers, or local communities.	这听起来简单，但有时当公司的股东需求与员工、客户或者当地社区的利益相冲突时则会变得棘手。


The good news is that, in any such conflict, there is one clear, unifying goal: ensuring the company’s long-term success.	但好消息则是在任何这样冲突中，存在着一个明确的、统一的目标——确保公司的长期兴旺发展。


This requires, first and foremost, that the company is profitable. But profitability should not be an end in itself; it is a tool to help managers determine the most effective use of their resources and gauge the company’s competitiveness and vitality.	这首先要求公司盈利，但盈利不仅限于盈利本身，还是帮助管理者确定最有效利用资源和评估公司竞争力和生命力的一个工具。


So instead of just paying out dividends, companies should use their profits to bolster their long-term viability.	因此相比于仅仅支付股息，公司应该使用它们的利润来支撑自身的长期生存能力。


Profitability, growth, and safeguards against existential risks are crucial to strengthening a company’s long-term prospects.	盈利能力、增长和风险防范存对巩固一个公司的长期兴旺发展态势至关重要。


But if these three factors constitute a company’s “hard power,” firms also need “soft power”: public trust and acceptance, won by fulfilling a company’s social responsibility.	但是如果说这三个因素构成了公司的“硬实力”，那公司还需要“软实力”：以实现公司的社会责任来赢得公众的信任和接受。


Only when a company has gained the public’s confidence – its “license to operate” – can its management create long-term value for all stakeholders, including shareholders.	只有当一个公司获得了公众的信心——它的“经营许可”——那它的管理者才可以为所有利益相关者创造长期价值，包括股东。


In short, the real conflict is not between profit maximization and social responsibility, but rather between short- and long-term thinking.	简而言之，真正的冲突不是利润最大化和社会责任之间的矛盾，而是短线和长线思维之间的抉择。


This, in a sense, is an easier conflict to resolve.	在某种意义上这是一个更容易解决的冲突。


After all, a short-sighted approach not only undermines companies’ prospects; it also threatens the entire economy.	毕竟一个目光短浅的操作手法不仅削弱了公司的前景，还会威胁到整个经济。


Indeed, managers’ irresponsible focus on advancing shareholders’ immediate interests, thereby maximizing their own bonuses, contributed significantly to bringing the global financial system to the brink of collapse in 2008.	事实上，2008年把全球金融体系推向崩溃边缘的危机在很大程度上正是源自于经理人为了实现自身奖金分红的最大化而不负责任地奋力推高股东的短期利益。


In order to enable a company’s management to accommodate the long-term interests of all stakeholders, corporate decision-making must account for the four prerequisites of a company’s survival: profitability, growth, risk protection, and public trust.	为了使公司的运营能满足所有利益相关者的长远利益，企业决策必须考虑一个公司生存的四个先决条件：盈利能力、增长、风险防范以及公众的信任。


Given that satisfying one of these prerequisites often comes at the cost of the others, such a system would entail continuous adjustment and compromise.	鉴于满足这些先决条件中的一个往往会增加其他三者的成本，就需要对这个系统需进行不断调整和妥协。


We are emerging from a period when companies, under pressure to meet shareholder expectations, favored profitability and growth, even if it meant taking undue risks and losing public confidence.	我们曾遇到这样的情形，企业面对满足股东期望的压力，要支持盈利能力和增长，却面临承担过度风险和失去公众信心。


Companies now need to work on minimizing risk and building trust by meeting the legitimate expectations of all their stakeholders, including reducing their activities’ adverse impact on the environment and creating high-quality employment opportunities.	如今企业需要通过满足所有的利益相关者的合法期望来努力减少风险和建立信任，包括减少它们的活动对环境的负面影响和创造高质量的就业机会。


But corporate social responsibility is not limited to how a company does business.	但企业社会责任不仅限于公司如何做生意。


Firms should use their core competencies to help find solutions to today’s most pressing social problems.	公司应该使用他们的核心竞争力来解决当今最紧迫的社会问题。


In other words, beyond serving its own stakeholders, a company should accept its own role as a stakeholder in our collective future – a sort of quid pro quo for its license to operate.	换句话说，除了服务于自己的利益相关者，公司应该接受自己作为我们共同未来利益相关者的角色——一种对其“经营许可”的补充。


Fortunately, companies are increasingly acting with a sense of social responsibility.	幸运的是，越来越多的企业具备社会责任感。


By working with governments, international organizations, and civil society, companies are addressing major challenges like social integration, and creating the necessary systems to provide education and health care to those who need it most.	通过与政府、国际组织、公民社会合作，企业开始协助处理如社会融合这类的重大挑战，创建必要的体系为最急需帮助的人提供教育和医疗资源。


These companies are implementing the stakeholder concept on a micro and macro level, answering to the demands of their employees, customers, and communities, and thus strengthening their brands.	这些公司正在微观和宏观层面上实施利益相关者的概念，回应员工、客户、社区的要求，从而强化它们自身的品牌。


In doing so, such companies offer a powerful response to the question of what their role in society should be.	通过这些手段，这些公司有力的回应了自身应当在社会中扮演何种角色的问题。


More important, they are showing the rest of the corporate sector that the business of advancing the common good is a worthy one.	更重要的是，它们也向其他企业展示了推动公共利益的事业是值得的。


Putting Profits in Perspective	利润透视


BERKELEY – High profits are usually viewed as a sign of a company’s economic prowess, the result of innovation and efficiency forged by healthy competition.	伯克利——高利润通常被视为企业经济实力的标志及健康竞争带来的创新和效率成果。


But, as a recent report by the US Council of Economic Advisers shows, high profits can have another cause: market concentration.	但美国经济顾问委员会最近的一份报告显示，还有一个原因可能产生高利润：那就是市场集中度。


The report lists several indicators of decreasing competition in the US economy, including a long-term decline in new business formation and the accrual of enormous profits to a small number of firms.	该报告列出了美国经济竞争不断减少的若干指标，其中包括新成立企业数长期下降，以及少数企业积累了巨额利润。


Acting on its recommendations, President Barack Obama recently issued an executive order calling on all US government agencies to use their authority to promote competition.	根据这份报告的建议，巴拉克·奥巴马总统日前颁布了一项行政命令，呼吁所有美国政府机构利用手中的权力来促进竞争。


It is an important moment to assess the state of competition in various sectors.	现在评估各行业竞争状况的重要时刻已经来临。


Many US industries, including some of the most innovative, are dominated by a handful of large companies, some of which enjoy very large market shares and generate returns that greatly exceed historical averages.	众多美国行业，其中也包括某些最具创新性的行业，均由少数几家大型企业所掌控，其中有些企业拥有极大规模的市场份额并能产生大大超过历史平均水平的利润。


And some companies are stockpiling cash or acquiring competitors rather than using their returns to build productive capacity.	但有些企业并没有利用所赚利润建设新的生产能力，而是忙于囤积现金或者收购竞争对手。


Nonetheless, it would be a mistake to conclude that weakening competition is driving these unusual economic trends.	即便如此，匆忙得出竞争弱化是推动这种不寻常经济趋势的结论也可能犯下错误。


They are taking place in a context of swiftly changing sectoral dynamics and rapid digitization.	现有趋势形成的背景是行业动态的快速变化以及数字化的快速推进。


Corporate profits may be near all-time highs, but their variance among firms and industries has also increased significantly.	企业利润或许接近历史高点，但不同企业和行业间的差异也显著上升。


The most profitable firms in the US are no longer in heavy industry; they are in sectors that capitalize on research and development, brands, software, and algorithms.	美国最赚钱的企业不再来自重工业； 而是来自依靠研发、品牌、软件和算法牟利的部门。


Companies in sectors like pharmaceuticals, media, finance, information technology, and business services have the highest profit margins.	制药、媒体、金融、信息技术和商业服务等行业企业拥有最高的边际利润。


Even excluding finance, these sectors’ share of US corporate profits has increased significantly, from 25% in 1999 to 35% in 2013.	即使刨去金融行业，上述行业在美国企业利润中的占比也已从1999年的25%大幅提升至2013年的35%。


Corporate profitability is increasingly driven by digital capabilities.	企业盈利能力越来越多地受到数字能力的驱动。


In the most digitally advanced sectors of the economy, margins have grown 2-3 times faster than average.	经济中数字化表现最为领先的行业其利润增速比平均值快2到3倍。


And even within these sectors, there are enormous spreads between the top-performing companies and the rest of the pack.	而且即使在这些行业中，表现最出色的企业和其他企业之间也有着巨大的不同。


The “winner-take-most” dynamic of the digital economy is not only producing record profits for leading firms; it may be accelerating the pace of innovation and broadening the areas in which companies can enter and quickly establish market power.	数字经济中“���家通吃”的规律不仅为领先企业带来创记录的利润； 而且还有可能加快创新步伐，拓宽企业可以进入并快速建立市场力量的领域。


There are also many reasons why some firms appear to have decided to stockpile their returns.	有些公司看似决定囤积赚到的利润可能还有其他很多原因。


For starters, while gross business investment as a share of GDP has yet to recover from the 2008 financial crisis, growth in investment has been in line with its historical relationship to output growth.	首先，由于2008年金融危机后商业总投资占GDP的比重仍处于恢复状态，投资增长其实一直与产量增长的历史关系相符。


At the macroeconomic level, investment growth has been weak, because economic growth has been anemic.	在宏观经济层面，投资增长一直疲软，因为经济增长一直表现乏力。


At the same time, investment growth has been strong in sectors like technology and – until recently – energy, where demand has been expected to rise.	与此同时，技术和能源（直到不久之前）等行业的投资增长一直表现强劲，因为人们一直预期需求将会上升。


And while awaiting stronger demand at home, some US companies have been investing in foreign markets, attracted by their size and projected growth.	而且在坐等国内需求转强的同时，某些美国企业在规模和预计增长率的吸引下一直投资海外市场。


Second, measurement issues may be clouding investment figures.	其次，计量问题可能掩盖了真实的投资数据。


The price of capital equipment, particularly ICT equipment and software, has declined sharply since the 1980s, even as quality has improved.	资本设备价格，尤其是信息通信技术设备和软件价格从20世纪80年代后一直急速下降，虽然在同一时期质量其实有所提升。


Thus, real price- and quality-adjusted investment may be considerably stronger than official statistics imply.	因此，按价格和质量调整后的真实投资数据可能比官方统计数据所暗示的要强劲得多。


Third, asset-light, heavily digitized firms have a much larger presence in the US than they did even a decade ago.	第三，轻资产、重数字化的企业在美国的比重比十年前要大得多。


By their nature, these firms do not need much in the way of factories, equipment, and fleets of vehicles.	就其性质而言，这些企业并不需要太多厂房、设备和运输车队。


Focusing on their investment in physical capital ignores their ability to generate returns from intellectual property and other intangible assets.	只关注其实物资产投资就会忽略它们从知识产权和其他无形资产中赚取到的利润。


And it overlooks their investment in R&D and intellectual property assets.	同时它们对研发和知识产权资产的投资同样也会遭到忽视。


In fact, R&D investment has hit a record high, driven by ideas-intensive companies that compete through innovation.	事实上，在创新密集型企业创新竞争的推动下，研发投资已经达到历史高位。


Meanwhile, many leading firms in ideas-intensive sectors are using their substantial cash holdings to grow through mergers and acquisitions.	此外，创新密集型行业的许多领先企业都在利用巨额的现金储备进行收购。


The bigger and more profitable these firms become, the more they tend to use M&A as one of the few available avenues for continued growth.	这些企业规模越大、利润率越高，它们就越倾向于利用兼并重组作为实现持续增长的途径。


To be sure, this could accelerate market concentration.	可以肯定，这种做法可能加速市场集中。


But it is important to note that the effects of market concentration are changing.	但认识到市场集中的效果正在发生改变非常重要。


Indeed, in a growing number of digital markets where a few giant firms hold commanding shares, there is little evidence that market power is leading to higher prices.	事实上，在越来越多由少数几家巨型企业掌握主导份额的数字化市场，鲜有证据表明市场力量正在导致价格上升。


On the contrary, consumers have gained an array of free services and conveniences.	恰恰相反，消费者们已经获得了一系列的免费便利措施和服务。


More relevant concerns about market concentration may turn out to be privacy and data ownership, not pricing power.	有关市场集中度更有意义的担忧可能并非定价权而是隐私权和数据所有权。


Indeed, some have begun to ask whether the collection and control of large amounts of data by a few huge firms with commanding market shares can be an anticompetitive force, creating insurmountable entry barriers for would-be innovators.	事实上，有些人已经开始质疑由掌握市场份额的少数几家大型企业搜集和控制海量数据是否会给可能进入的创新者带来无法逾越的进入障碍，并因此违反竞争原则。


At the same time, however, some of the largest digital platforms, by their very nature, may promote competition, as they improve transparency in markets and enable millions of small enterprises to reach customers and suppliers around the world.	与此同时，从本质上讲，某些最大规模的数字平台可以通过改善市场透明度和促使成百上千万小企业接触世界各地的客户和供应商而促进竞争。


A recent study found that digital platforms can help small businesses increase their export rates dramatically.	最近一项研究发现，数字化平台可以帮助小企业的出口率大幅提升。


It is possible that the era of “peak profits” that has sparked concerns about market power is coming to a close.	激起有关市场力量担忧的“利润峰值”时代可能已经接近尾声。


US corporations have had a remarkable three-decade run, but profits have already slipped from 11.5% of national income in 2012 to 9.5% last year.	美国企业经历了30年的快速增长，但利润已经从2012年占国民收入的11. 5%下滑到去年的9.


Today, wages are rising, borrowing costs have nowhere to go but up, and corporate tax policies are under scrutiny.	5%。 今天，工资不断上升，借贷成本也只会一路上涨，而企业的税收政策正在接受严格的监督。


On top of those shifts, the digitization of American business is still in its early stages.	尽管发生了这些变化，美国企业的数字化之路仍然刚刚起步。


Recent research has estimated that the US economy has realized only about 18% of its digital potential.	最近的一份研究估算美国经济仅仅发挥了约18%的数字化潜能。


As the economic transformation continues to play out, the corporate world may become even more Darwinian.	随着经济转型不断深入，企业界可能更加适用达尔文的“物竞天择、适者生存”。


Indeed, many digital behemoths did not exist a decade ago, and it is possible that they will no longer exist a decade from now.	事实上，很多庞然大物般的数字企业10年前还不存在，而且它们在10年后销声匿迹也并非不可能。


Today’s market leaders may look invincible.	今天的市场领袖或许看起来不可战胜。


But they can always be toppled by the next new thing.	但后来的新兴事物却总能够推翻它们。


The Profit-Sharing Economy	利润分享经济


BERKELEY – Over the last 35 years, real wages in the United States failed to keep pace with productivity gains; for the typical non-farm worker, the latter grew twice as fast as the former.	伯克利—过去35年中，美国实际工资增长赶不上生产率； 对典型的非农员工来说，后者的增长速度是前者的两倍。


Instead, an increasing share of the gains went to a tiny fraction of workers at the very top – typically high-level managers and CEOs – and to shareholders and other capital owners.	相反，越来越大的收益比例流入了最顶尖一小撮员工的腰包——他们常常是高管和CEO——或者股东和其他资本拥有者。


In fact, while real wages fell by about 6% for the bottom 10% of the income distribution and grew by a paltry 5-6% for the median worker, they soared by more than 150% for the top 1%.	事实上，收入分布最底层10%的人实际工资下降了余额6%，中位员工的实际工资仅仅增长了5—6%，而最顶尖1%员工的实际工资飙升150%以上。


How can this troubling trend be ameliorated?	如何遏制这一令人不安的趋势？


One potential solution is broad-based profit-sharing programs.	一个潜在的解决方案是广泛的利润分享计划。


Together with job training and opportunities for workers to participate in problem-solving and decision-making, such programs have been shown to foster employee engagement and loyalty, reduce turnover, and boost productivity and profitability.	这一计划与职业培训和让员工获得参与解决问题和决策一道，已经证明可以提高雇员参与度和忠诚度、降低跳槽率、提振生产率和利润。


Profit sharing also benefits workers.	利润分享也有利于员工。


Indeed, workers in companies with inclusive profit-sharing and employee-ownership programs typically receive significantly higher wages than workers in comparable companies without such arrangements.	事实上，有包容性利润共享和雇员持股计划的公司，其员工所获得的工资常常显著高于没有这类安排的可比公司。


About half of Fortune’s list of the 100 best companies to work for have some kind of profit-sharing or stock-ownership program that extends beyond executives to include regular workers.	在《财富》杂志100大最佳雇主中，大约一半有某种形式的利润分享或持股计划，其范围不仅包括高管，也包括普通员工。


Despite the demonstrated benefits of broad-based profit-sharing programs, only about one-third of US private-sector workers participate in them, and about 20% own stock in their companies.	尽管广泛利润分享计划表现出诸多好处，但只有三分之一的美国私营部门员工参与其中，并且只有大约20%持有本公司股票。


If these programs work so well, why are they not more widespread?	既然这些计划这么好，为何没有得到普及？


First, executives for whom shared profits already account for a significant portion of income may resist programs that distribute profits to more workers, fearing that their own income would decline.	首先，分享利润占收入大头的高管可能会抵制将利润分配给更多员工的计划，担心他们自身的收入会有所下降。


Even when such programs increase overall profitability, they could reduce the profits going to top management and shareholders.	即使这一计划提高了总体利润，也可能降低流向高管层和股东的利润。


Second, workers are concerned that profit-sharing may come at the expense of wages, with the substitution of uncertain profits for certain wages resulting in lower overall compensation.	其次，员工担心利润分享计划会影响到工资，用不确定的利润代替确定工资导致总薪酬变得更低。


Effective profit-sharing schemes must be structured to prevent this outcome, and strong collective bargaining rights can help provide the necessary safeguards.	有效的利润分享机制结构必须能够防止这一结果，而强大的集体讨价还价能力有助于提供必要的保护。


Third, if inclusive profit-sharing programs are to have the desired effect on productivity, they should be combined with other initiatives to empower workers.	第三，如果包容性利润分享计划想要实现渴望的生产率效应，就应该与其他员工赋权计划相结合。


One way to achieve this is by establishing “works councils,” elected groups of employees with rights to information and consultation, including on working conditions.	实现这一目标的一个办法是成立“工作委员会”，遴选雇员小组赋予其包括工作条件在内的信息和咨询权。


Works councils and strong collective bargaining rights, both features of high-productivity workplaces, are common in developed economies.	工作委员会和强大的集体讨价还价权利都是高生产率工作的特征，在发达经济体中很常见。


But they are lacking in the US, where federal law makes it difficult for companies to establish works councils and prohibits negotiations between employers and employees over working conditions outside of collective bargaining, even though most workers lack collective bargaining rights.	但在美国它们并不常见，联邦法让公司难以成立工作委员会，并禁止雇主和雇员在集体讨价还价范畴之外展开工作条件谈判，即使大部分员工没有集体讨价还价权。


Promisingly, the United Automobile Workers union recently announced that, as it continues to push for collective bargaining rights, it is also cooperating with management to form a works council in the German-owned Volkswagen plant in Tennessee.	令人欣喜的是，美国汽车工会（United Automobile Workers）最近宣布，在继续推进集体讨价还价权的同时，它也正在与管理层合作，在田纳西州德资大众汽车工厂成立工作委员会。


The fourth impediment to the establishment of profit-sharing programs is that they require a fundamental shift in corporate culture.	制定利润分享计划的第四个障碍是这需要公司文化有根本性变化。


Though most companies emphasize the importance of their human capital, top executives and shareholders still tend to view labor primarily as a cost driver, rather than a revenue driver – a view embedded in traditional and costly-to-change human-resources practices.	尽管大部分公司都强调人力资本的重要性，但顶层高管和股东仍倾向于将劳动力主要视为成本驱动器而非收入驱动器——这一观点已经深深嵌入传统的、改变代价十分高昂的人力资本实践中。


Unlike the financial benefits of reducing labor costs, the financial benefits of profit sharing, realized gradually through greater employee engagement and reduced turnover, are difficult to measure, uncertain, and unlikely to have an immediate effect on earnings per share, a major determinant of executive compensation.	与降低劳动力成本的财务收益不同，利润分享的财务收益通过提高雇员参与度、降低跳槽率逐渐实现，这一收益难以测量、不确定，也不可能对每股收益（高管薪酬的主要决定因素）立刻产生效果。


It is unsurprising, therefore, that the advantages of profit-sharing are undervalued by many companies, especially those that focus on short-term success metrics.	因此，毫不奇怪利润分享的优势被许多公司低估，特别是那些专注于短期成功指标的公司。


Moreover, even when they do recognize the advantages of profit sharing, companies may lack the technical knowledge needed to design a program that suits their needs.	此外，即使它们认识到利润分享的好处，公司也缺少设计符合需要的计划的技术知识。


Some states have established technical-assistance offices primarily to help small and medium-size companies overcome this gap.	一些州已经成立了技术支持办公室，主要就是为了帮助中小型公司克服这一障碍。


The federal government should create its own technical-assistance program to build on states’ efforts and reach a larger number of companies.	联邦政府也应该成立其自身的技术支持计划，以各州的措施为基础，普及到更多数量的公司。


From a policy perspective, much more can be done to encourage firms to create broad-based profit-sharing arrangements.	从政策角度，在鼓励企业成立广泛利润分享安排方面有很多事情可以做。


Current US law allows businesses to deduct from their taxable income the wages of all employees, except the top five executives, for whom deductions are limited to $1 million of annual pay, unless the excess compensation is “performance-related.”	目前，美国法律允许公司从应税利润中扣除所有雇员的工资，但排名最高的五名高管除外，他们的扣除金限定在100万年薪以内，除非其上的薪酬与“业绩挂钩”。


Spurred partly by this tax incentive, corporations have shifted top executives’ compensation toward shares, options, and other forms of profit sharing and stock ownership, largely leaving out regular workers.	部分拜这一税收激励所赐，公司顶级高官的薪酬偏重于股��、期权和其他形式的利润分享和持股计划，而普通员工不享受此待遇。


Some have proposed limiting the tax deduction for performance-based pay to firms with broad-based profit-sharing programs.	有人建议将基于业绩表现的薪酬的税收扣减范围局限于实施广泛利润分享计划的企业。


But, although this approach might encourage profit sharing with more workers, it would continue to provide companies with significant tax breaks for huge compensation packages for top executives.	但是，尽管这一办法或许能够鼓励扩大员工利润分享范围，但顶层高管薪酬极高的公司仍能获得大量税收减免。


US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a more targeted proposal: a 15% tax credit for profits that companies distribute to workers over two years.	美国总统候选人希拉里·克林顿提出了一个更有针对性的目标：对于公司两年内分配给员工的利润享受15%的免税。


By providing temporary tax relief, the scheme would help companies offset the administrative costs of establishing a profit-sharing program.	该计划提供暂时性税收减免，有助于公司抵消成立利润分享计划所导致的管理费用。


In order to limit costs and prevent abuse, profits totaling more than 10% on top of an employee’s wage would be excluded; the overall amount offered to individual firms would be capped; and safeguards against the substitution of profit sharing for wages, raises, and other benefits would be established.	为了限制成本、预防滥用，超过员工工资10%以上的利润不享受此税收优惠； 个体企业所享受的优惠总规模也将存在上限；


The tax credit could also foster changes in corporate culture, by spurring board-level discussions not only of the benefits of profit sharing, but also of sharing information and decision-making authority with employees.	而防止以利润分享代替工资、加薪和其他福利的措施也将实施。 免税还能刺激董事会层面讨论利润分享的好处甚至与员工分享信息和决策权的好处，从而推进公司文化的改变。


The stagnant incomes of the majority of US workers are undermining economic growth on the demand side (by discouraging household consumption) and on the supply side (through adverse effects on educational opportunity, human-capital development, and innovation).	大部分美国员工收入停滞阻正在从需求端（通过遏制家庭消费）和供给端（通过对教育机会、人力资本开发以及创新的消极影响）阻挠经济增长。


It is time to take action to promote stronger and more equitable growth.	应该采取行动推进更强劲、更平等的增长。


Clinton’s profit-sharing proposal is a promising step in the right direction.	克林顿的利润分享方案是迈向正确方向的一步。


Making Higher Education Pay	改善高等教育效果


BERKELEY – Higher education is a great investment, with each additional year of post-secondary education yielding a 10-15% return, on average.	伯克利——高等教育是一项极好的投资，每多受一年高等教育意味着平均增加10-15%的回报。


For university graduates, that means hundreds of thousands of dollars over a lifetime.	对大学毕业生而言，这意味着一生增加数十万美元的收入。


Unfortunately, students aspiring to a higher education, especially those from low-income families and underperforming secondary schools, lack the information they need to make wise choices about where to go and what to study to maximize the return on their investment.	不幸的是，渴望接受高等教育的学生，尤其是那些来自低收入家庭和表现不佳中学的学生，缺乏必要的信息对报考哪所院校和学习哪个专业才能得到最大回报做出明智的选择。


In the United States, President Barack Obama’s administration is trying to close that information gap with the College ScoreCard, a free, easily searchable database that offers unbiased information about the performance and costs of US public and private institutions providing post-secondary education.	在美国，总统巴拉克·奥巴马领导的政府正试图用院校记分卡来弥补上述信息的缺失，这是一套提供美国公共和私人机构高等教育绩效和费用等客观信息的方便搜索的免费数据库系统。


Instead of proposing an overall ranking of institutions based on some composite measure of key indicators, the database offers detailed data covering five broad categories: costs, student debt and repayment, degree completion rates, post-enrollment earnings, and access for disadvantaged students.	该数据库不是根据某些关键指标测算提供院校的总体排名，而是收录了五大类的详细数据供使用者查阅：包括收费、学生债务与还款、学位完成率、入学后收入和弱势学生的入学状况。


Making federal data readily available to the private sector and encouraging open innovation platforms to address social challenges are hallmarks of Obama’s government.	靠向私营部门随时提供联邦数据和鼓励开放创新平台来解决社会问题是奥巴马政府的特色。


Journalists are already crunching the numbers in the College ScoreCard to propose rankings and recommendations.	记者已经在分析院校记分卡上的数据，给出建议和排名情况。


Ideas for new business opportunities are sure to follow.	这无疑会带来全新的商业机遇理念。


The College ScoreCard is a big step forward for transparency.	院校记分卡是透明度方面的重大进步。


It will not only help students and their families make better choices; it will also spur a dialogue that encourages research and innovation by educators and state policymakers, and puts pressure on underperforming institutions to improve.	它不仅有助于学生及其家庭更好地做出选择； 还能鼓励教育工作者和国家决策者开展研究和创新对话，并敦促表现不佳的机构改进工作。


For students, this information can prove to be invaluable.	对学生而言，上述信息可能非常宝贵。


As Isabel Sawhill and Stephanie Owen of the Brookings Institution found, there are large variations in returns by institution and major.	布鲁金斯学会的伊莎贝尔·索希尔和斯蒂芬妮·欧文发现，不同院校和专业的回报差异巨大。


While the average four-year college degree delivers $570,000 in additional lifetime earnings, the returns on investment are actually negative for one in five of the institutions in their 853-institution sample.	虽然四年制大学学位平均能带来终身570,000 美元的额外收入，但他们所搜集的853家院校样本中有五分之一的投资回报实际为负数。


Likewise, the University of Pennsylvania’s Peter Cappelli estimates that as many as one in four college programs yield negative returns for their students.	同样，宾夕法尼亚大学的彼得·卡普利估计多达四分之一的大学课程为学生带来的投资回报为负数。


There is also large variation in the returns among programs offering associate degrees (generally two years of post-secondary education) and vocational training.	大专文凭课程（一般为期两年的大学教育）和职业培训的回报同样差异巨大。


At the same time, tuition costs are climbing much faster than median family incomes across the board.	同时，学费比中等家庭收入的增长要快很多。


Student loan debt has quadrupled since 2010, now totaling more than $1 trillion.	学生贷款负债自2010年来已翻了两番，目前已有超过1万亿美元的规模。


Worse yet, many of the more expensive colleges – especially private, for-profit institutions – have low graduation rates.	更糟的是，很多学费更贵的大学，特别是以盈利为目的的私立大学——呈现低毕业率特征。


Researchers at the US Treasury Department and the Brookings Institution recently found that 70% of students who defaulted after leaving college in 2011 came from “non-traditional” institutions – mostly for-profit universities.	美国财政部和布鲁金斯学会的研究人员最近发现2011年离校后拖欠贷款学生的70%来自大多为营利性大学的“非传统”院校。


These problems raise the imperative of developing new models of education delivery.	这些问题反映出发展全新教育模式的必要。 在这方面，“渐进式”联邦制——即由联邦政府制定绩效、价格和普及目标；


In that effort, “progressive” federalism – whereby the federal government sets goals for performance, affordability, and access; demands accountability by providers; and spurs private and public institutions at the state and local levels to innovate – can play a critical role.	对各院校进行问责； 并刺激私人和公共机构国家和地方层面的创新——可以发挥重要的作用。


Conservative skeptics argue that higher education is a matter for the states, not the federal government.	保守派怀疑论者认为高等教育是各州的问题，而非联邦政府。


But the federal government already plays a major financial role in higher education.	但联邦政府已经在高等教育中扮演着重要角色。


Indeed, while states account for the bulk of public spending on higher education, the federal government finances a big share of that spending via guaranteed loans and grants to students.	事实上，虽然州政府在高等教育公共支出方面占了大头，但联邦政府通过向学生提供担保贷款和助学金承担了上述开支的很大份额。


The problem is that the institutions of higher education – both public and private – that have been receiving significant levels of federal support have not been subject to much accountability.	问题在于公共和私人高等教育机构一直在接受联邦政府的巨额支持，但却不接受问责。


Meanwhile, many states have slashed public spending on higher education and tried to make up the difference by raising tuition and forcing students to take on more federally financed debt.	此外，很多州已经大幅削减了高等教育公共开支，并试图通过提高学费和迫使学生借贷更多联邦债务来弥补差额。


A well-designed progressive federalist policy for higher education would set goals for key performance indicators – based on the measures highlighted in the College ScoreCard – and reward states that advance toward those goals.	一套设计合理的渐进式联邦政策高等教育政策可以根据院校记分卡的各项测算设定关键的绩效指标，并奖励努力实现上述目标的州。


It would encourage and finance state efforts to test new approaches to expand access, increase graduation rates, and improve students’ lifetime outcomes.	它可以鼓励并资助各州的工作，检验扩大普及率、增加毕业率和提高学生终身收入的全新方法。


Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s higher-education reform proposals embody such a progressive federalist approach.	总统候选人希拉里·克林顿的高等教育改革提案就体现了这套渐进的联邦原则。


Her “College Compact” would grant federal subsidies to states if they commit to – and succeed in – containing the costs of higher education, including by providing free enrollment at two-year community colleges.	她的“大学协定”为各州提供联邦补贴，前提是他们承诺——并成功实现——限制高等教育成本，包括在两年制社区大学建立免费入学制度。


Many institutions of higher education are already testing new models.	很多高等教育机构已经在测试新的模式。


Arizona State University has deployed an array of online technologies, as well as mentoring programs, to keep students on track.	亚利桑那州立大学已经引入系列在线技术和指导计划来跟踪学生进度。


Since 2008, ASU’s cost per graduate (which includes both state spending and tuition) has fallen from $68,000 to $56,000.	2008年来，亚利桑那州立大学单位毕业生成本（包括州开支和学费）已经从68,000美元下降至56,000美元。


Last year, ASU teamed up with Starbucks to allow the company’s employees to complete their college degrees for free online.	去年，亚利桑那州立大学联手星巴克让企业员工免费获得大学在线教育学位。


Meanwhile, the school’s overall graduation rate has climbed from 33% to 49%.	此外，该校整体毕业率已经从33%上升到49%。


Another promising innovator is Western Governors University, a private nonprofit online institution founded by 19 state governors that serves about 58,000 students spread across the US.	另一所很有前途的创新院校是西部州长大学，一所由19位州长创办、服务全美58,000名学生的私营非盈利在线机构。


WGU offers accredited college-degree programs in fields from teaching and nursing to business.	西部州长大学开设从教学护理到商业等领域的认证大学学位课程。


By focusing on the attainment of specific competencies, rather than on the amount of time spent in a classroom, WGU has been able to offer flexibility at bargain rates; a full-time program, including textbooks and a mentor, costs about $6,000 a year.	通过专注特定能力素养、而不是花在课堂上的时间，西部州长大学实现了以低廉的价格提供灵活的教育服务； 一套全日制课程，包括教材和导师，每年仅需收取约6，000美元的费用。


Progressive federalism can also build on state and local innovations to expand access.	渐进联邦制也可以在各州和地方创新的基础上实现普及扩大。


Tennessee, a Republican-led state, has attracted nationwide attention with a program to offer all high school graduates free tuition at any community college.	共和党领导的田纳西州一项所有高中毕业生均可免费就读任何社区大学的计划吸引了全国的关注。


The program is funded by the state’s lottery, and brings Tennessee closer than any other state to making community college as universal as high school.	该计划由州彩票项目提供资金支持，使得田纳西比其他任何州都更接近实现让社区院校像高中一样普及的目标。


Indeed, Obama cited Tennessee as inspiration for his proposal to make community college tuition-free nationwide.	事实上，奥巴马宣布其全国社区大学的免费计划灵感即来自田纳西州。


Progressive federalism offers a way to tap into and build on these innovations.	渐进联邦制提供了利用和挖掘上述创新的方法。


The federal government can and should set the strategic direction, establish measurable goals, and foster new models wherever they might arise to build an educational system fit for the twenty-first century.	联邦政府可以也应当在任何地方制定战略方向，树立可以度量的目标和培育新的模式，以建立适合二十一世纪的教育系统。


A Progressive Logic of Trade	一个关于贸易的进步主义逻辑


CAMBRIDGE – The global trade regime has never been very popular in the United States.	发自剑桥——关于全球贸易体制的讨论在美国从来就不是个热门话题。


Neither the World Trade Organization nor the multitudes of regional trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have had strong support among the general public. But opposition, while broad, was diffuse.	公众从未对世界贸易组织（WTO）或是如北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）和跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）这类区域性贸易协定表示强烈支持，而反对的声音虽然广泛存在，却也是分散各处，难以拧成一股劲。


The difference today is that international trade has moved to the center of the political debate.	但如今不同的是国际贸易已经成为了政治辩论的核心话题。


The US presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have both made opposition to trade agreements a key plank of their campaigns.	美国总统候选人伯尼·桑德斯和唐纳德·特朗普同时将反对贸易协定作为自身竞选活动的一个重要支柱。


And, judging from the tone of the other candidates, standing up for globalization constitutes electoral suicide in the current political climate.	而从其他候选人的宣传口径看来，在当前的政治气候下鼓吹全球化简直就是选举自杀。


The populist rhetoric on trade may be excessive, but few deny any longer that the underlying grievances are real.	关于贸易的民粹主义言论可能相当出格，但也没什么人能否认底层民众确实受了委屈。


Globalization has not lifted all boats.	全球化并没有让所有人的生活得到改善。


Many working families have been devastated by the impact of low-cost imports from China and elsewhere.	许多工薪家庭都在中国及其他国家的低成本进口商品的冲击下一蹶不振。


And the big winners have been the financiers and skilled professionals who can take advantage of expanded markets.	而大赢家一直是金融家以及那些因市场不断扩大而得益的专业人才。


While globalization has not been the sole (or even the most important) force driving inequality in the advanced economies, it has been a contributor.	虽然全球化从来都不是推动发达经济体内部不平等的唯一（或是最重要）力量，却一直在为此助力。


What gives trade particular political salience is that it often raises fairness concerns in ways that the other major contributor to inequality – technology – does not.	而令贸易在政治显得尤为突兀的原因是它往往会以一种与其他的主要推动因素——比如科学技术——不同的方式激发人们对不平等现象的观感。


When I lose my job because my competitor innovates and introduces a better product, I have little cause to complain.	当一个人因为竞争对手实现创新并引进更好的产品而失去工作，这没什么好抱怨的。


When he does so by outsourcing to firms abroad that do things that would be illegal here – for example, prevent their workers from organizing and bargaining collectively – I may have a real gripe.	但如果对手通过将工作外包给一些国外企业，放任他们做一些在本国触犯法律的事——比如禁止工人组织起来集体谈判——而导致我失业，那我可能就有话要说了。


Sanders has forcefully advocated the renegotiation of trade agreements to reflect better the interests of working people.	桑德斯大力呼吁重新修订各项贸易条约以便更好地维护劳动人民的利益。


But such arguments immediately run up against the objection that any standstill or reversal on trade agreements would harm the world’s poorest, by diminishing their prospect of escaping poverty through export-led growth.	但这样的论点立即激起了一片反对之声，因为贸易协定的任何停滞或逆转都将损害世界上最贫穷的人群，因为这些人失去了利用出口导向型增长来摆脱贫困的希望。 正如较受欢迎且一贯理智的Vox.


“If you’re poor in another country, this is the scariest thing Bernie Sanders has said,” ran a headline in the popular and normally sober Vox.com news site.	com新闻网头条所言：“对于其他国家的穷人来说，没有什么比伯尼·桑德斯的言论最更可怕了。 ”。


But trade rules that are more sensitive to social and equity concerns in the advanced countries are not inherently in conflict with economic growth in poor countries.	但发达国家中对社会和公平问题更敏感的贸易规则并非天然就会与贫穷国家的经济增长发生冲突。


Globalization’s cheerleaders do considerable damage to their cause by framing the issue as a stark choice between existing trade arrangements and the persistence of global poverty.	全球化的鼓吹者们把这个议题套进了一个死框架，仿佛人们只能在现有贸易安排和全球贫困现象的持续存在之间做出非此即彼的选择，并最终对全球化议程产生了反作用。


And progressives needlessly force themselves into an undesirable tradeoff.	这些进步主义者们多此一举地强迫自己做出一个不愿接受的抉择。


First, the standard narrative about how trade has benefited developing economies omits a crucial feature of their experience.	首先，关于贸易如何惠及发展中经济体的标准叙事忽略了过往经验中的一个关键点。


Countries that managed to leverage globalization, such as China and Vietnam, employed a mixed strategy of export promotion and a variety of policies that violate current trade rules.	即那些设法利用全球化牟利的国家(如中国和越南)会采用一些混合策略，一方面鼓励出口，另一方又实施各类违反现行贸易规则的政策。


Subsidies, domestic-content requirements, investment regulations, and, yes, often import barriers were critical to the creation of new, higher-value industries.	补贴、国内制造比例，投资管制以及经常设置的进口壁垒对于新的更高附加值行业的建立是相当关键的。


Countries that rely on free trade alone (Mexico comes immediately to mind) have languished.	为此那些只能依靠自由贸易的国家（立刻浮现在脑海的是墨西哥）已经陷入了困境。


That is why trade agreements that tighten the rules are in fact mixed blessings for developing countries.	这就是为什么收紧规则的贸易协定实际上对发展中国家来说有众多好处。


China would not have been able to pursue its phenomenally successful industrialization strategy if the country had been constrained by WTO-type rules during the 1980s and 1990s.	如果中国在1980~90年代期间受到WTO式规则限制的话就无法实现其非常成功的工业化战略。


With the TPP, Vietnam gets some assurance of continued access to the US market (existing barriers on the US side are already quite low), but in return must submit to restrictions on subsidies, patent rules, and investment regulations.	在TPP框架下，越南得到了关于持续进入美国市场（美方现有障碍已然相当低）一些保证，而作为回报，该国必须服从针对补贴，专利规则和投资规则的限制条件。


Second, there is nothing in the historical record to suggest that poor countries require very low or zero barriers in the advanced economies in order to benefit greatly from globalization.	其���，没有什么历史记录表明，贫穷国家只有在先进经济体采取极低或者无壁垒的情况下才能从全球化中受益。


In fact, the most phenomenal export-oriented growth experiences to date – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China – all occurred when import tariffs in the US and Europe were at moderate levels, and higher than where they are today.	事实上，有史以来最成功的出口导向型增长经历——来自日本，韩国，台湾和中国——都是在美国和欧洲设置的进口关税出于中等水平时发生的，而且那时的关税比现在要高。


So, for progressives who worry both about inequality in the rich countries and poverty in the rest of the world, the good news is that it is indeed possible to advance on both fronts.	因此对于那些既担心关于富国不平等又忧虑在世界其他地区贫穷的进步主义者来说，好消息是全球化确实是有可能兼顾这两个方面的。


But to do so, we must transform our approach to trade deals in some drastic ways.	但要做到这一点，我们必须用某些较为剧烈的方式来改变达成贸易协定的手段。


The world’s trade regime is currently driven by a peculiarly mercantilist logic: You lower your barriers in return for me lowering mine.	世界贸易体制目前由一种特别重商主义的逻辑所驱动：你降低壁垒，然后我也降低壁垒来作为回报。


This approach has been remarkably successful in promoting trade expansion, but it has little economic justification.	这种方式在促进贸易增长已经取得显著的成功，但它几乎没有经济上的正当性。


Now that the world economy is already very open, “exchange of market access” is causing more problems than it solves.	现在世界经济已经非常开放，“市场准入交换”导致的问题可比它解决的要多。


The time has come to embrace a different logic, that of “exchange of policy space.”	因此是时候拥抱不同的逻辑，引入“政策空间交换。


Poor and rich countries alike need to carve out greater space for pursuing their respective objectives.	”穷国和富国都需要开拓出更大的空间以追求各自的目标。


The former need to restructure their economies and promote new industries, and the latter must address domestic concerns over inequality and distributive justice.	前者需要调整经济结构，推动新兴产业，而后者必须解决在国内的不平等和分配正义问题。


This requires placing some sand in the wheels of globalization.	这需要对高速运转的全球化车轮设置一点阻碍。


The best way to bring about such institutional re-engineering would be to rewrite multilateral rules.	对此重新构建体制运作最好的办法就是重写多边规则。


For example, the “safeguards” clause of the WTO could be broadened to allow the imposition of trade restrictions (subject to procedural disciplines) in instances where imports demonstrably conflict with domestic social norms. (I discuss the specifics in my book The Globalization Paradox.)	例如WTO的“保障”条款可能会被扩大，以允许在进口产品与国内社会规范爆发明确冲突的情况下实施贸易限制（但必须遵从相关程序原则）——具体细节会在我的《全球化悖论》一书中陈述。


Similarly, trade agreements could incorporate a “development box” to provide poor countries with the autonomy they need to pursue economic diversification.	同样，贸易协定可以被纳入“发展盒（development box）”并提供给贫穷国家，让它们获得追求经济多元化的自主性。


Progressives should not buy into a false and counter-productive narrative that sets the interests of the global poor against the interests of rich countries’ lower and middle classes.	进步主义不应该采纳一个将全球贫困人口和富国中下阶层的利益对立起来的，虚假而适得其反的叙述。


With sufficient institutional imagination, the global trade regime can be reformed to the benefit of both.	只要有足够的制度想象力，全球贸易制度可以进行改革，并令双方共同得益。


The Changing Mood on Migration	改变中的移民观


LONDON – Headlines about migration can seem unbearably stark: attacks on foreigners by neo-fascists in Greece, dozens of domestic workers on death row in the Gulf, a crass and callous campaign by the British government to drive out migrants.	伦敦—关于移民的新闻标题可能耸人听闻：希腊新法西斯分子袭击外国人； 波斯湾数十名本地工人等待处死；


Yet, despite persistent and even rising anti-immigrant sentiment in much of the world, promising signs of a more enlightened approach to migration are emerging.	英国政府粗暴无情地号召驱逐移民。 但是，尽管世界上很多地方反移民情绪持久而高涨，我们仍看到了更加光明的对待移民的方针。


The United States is in the midst of an intense debate on a sweeping immigration overhaul.	美国人正在激烈争论对移民进行彻底大排查的问题。


After a quarter-century of near-paralysis, American legislators are close to agreeing on reforms that would allow 11 million undocumented migrants to earn citizenship.	在二十五年的事实僵局后，美国立法者已接近于同意进行改革，让1100万非法移民获得公民身份。


The proposed changes also would make the US a magnet for talent and creativity from around the world.	这一变化也将让美股成为吸引全球人才和创造力的磁石。


The fiscal and economic arguments for a more liberal approach to migration have shaped the American debate.	在美国的争论中，起主导作用的是更自由的移民政策带来的财政和经济好处。


According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the US Senate’s reform legislation, passed in June, would result in fiscal benefits worth almost $1 trillion over the next two decades.	根据无党派立场的国会预算办公室的数据，6月通过的美国参议院改革立法将在未来二十年中带来近1万亿美元的财政收益。


Supporters also point out that immigrants launched 28% of all new American businesses in 2011, even though they accounted for just 13% of the population.	支持者还指出，2011年，美国新创企业中有28%是由移民创办的，尽管其人口只占总人口的13%。


The voices of both grassroots and establishment advocates have been equally decisive.	草根和权势支持者都发出了斩钉截铁的声音。


“Dreamers” – children raised in the US but without legal status – have become the human face of reform.	“梦想者”——长在美国但没有合法身份的儿童——成为了改革的代言人。


Business leaders, long afraid to participate in such a polarized debate, have finally entered the fray, arguing forcefully that immigration is critical to American competitiveness.	一直害怕参与这一极端化争论的商业领袖最终也加入了战团，强烈支持移民对美国竞争力起着关键作用的观点。


Thanks in part to all this spirited work, 72% of Americans, according to a recent Gallup poll, now consider immigration a net benefit for the country.	部分要归因于这些掷地有声的说辞，盖洛普最新民调现实，72%的美国人认为移民给美国带来的了净好处。


Given its history, America’s leadership on immigration is natural.	从历史上看，美国在移民问题上成为全球领袖是理所当然的。


Germany, on the other hand, is not widely considered progressive in this realm.	另一方面，德国被广泛认为并非移民问题上的先锋。


Yet, fairly quietly, Germany has done as much as any other country in recent years to court foreigners and refashion itself as a country of immigration.	但是，近几年来德国不声不响地吸引着外国人，把自己塑造成移民之国，在这方面一点都不落于人后。


One million people relocated to Germany in 2012 alone.	光是在2012年，就有100万在德国落脚。


Today, one-fifth of Germany’s residents – and one-third of its schoolchildren – have a migrant background.	如今，五分之一的德国居民——以及三分之一的学生——具有移民背景。


In July, Germany jettisoned 40% of its immigration rules, lowering barriers for mid-skilled workers like train drivers and machinists.	7月，德国取消了40%的移民规则，降低了货车司机和机械师等中等技能工人的移民门槛。


For the highly skilled, its immigration laws are among the OECD’s most liberal.	对于高技能工人，其移民法是经合组织国家中最自由的之一。


And yet the German government estimates that the country will face a shortfall of two million skilled workers by 2020.	但德国政府仍然估计，到2020年，德国高技能工人的缺口将达到200万。


Recent reforms not only seek to attract immigrants, but also to help them fulfill their potential.	当前的改革不但追求吸引移民，还追求帮助他们实现潜能。


Germany, for instance, is focused on helping foreigners get their qualifications recognized – so that, for example, doctors do not have to drive taxis.	比如，德国专注于帮助外国人获得资质认可，以使（比如）医生不至于沦落到开出租车的境地。


Public institutions like the police are hiring more immigrants.	警察等公共部门雇用了更多的移民。


A “Diversity Charter,” launched in 2006 and originally endorsed by a mere four companies, now has more than 1,500 corporate signatories.	2006年发布的“多样性宪章”（Diversity Charter）最初只有四家公司认可，如今已经获得了1500多家公司的签名。


And 4% of candidates in September’s parliamentary election have a migrant background, the highest ratio ever.	而在9月的议会选举中，4%的候选人具有移民背景，这一比例为有史以来最高水平。


Other countries have also gotten on the reform bandwagon.	其他国家也加入了改革行列。


The United Arab Emirates has been revamping its laws to improve migrants’ living conditions and strengthen protection of their rights.	阿联酋正在修改法律改善移民的生活条件、加强对其权利的保护。


Its activism is noteworthy, given the benighted approach to migrants typical in other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia.	该国如此活跃值得注意，因为在沙特等其他海湾国家，对移民的政策通常是相当愚昧保守的。


Brazil, meanwhile, aims to gain a competitive edge by making it easier for foreigners to immigrate with their families.	与此同时，巴西试图通过让外国人举家迁入更容易来赢得竞争优势。


The list of reformers is growing.	改革国家的名单正在变长。


Even more surprising, new international norms are being advanced.	更令人吃惊的是，新的国际规范也在进步之中。


The Domestic Workers Convention, adopted in 2011, enters into force on September 5, promising to extend labor protections to tens of millions of the most vulnerable migrant workers.	2011年通过、9月5日生效的《本国工人公约》（Domestic Workers Convention）承诺为数千万最脆弱的移民工人扩大劳动保护。


The treaty is quickly gaining momentum, having been ratified in recent months by Germany, Italy, Argentina, and South Africa, among others.	该条约正在快速获得支持，在最近几个月中得到了德国、意大利、阿根廷、南非和其他国家的批准。


All this progress is coming at an opportune moment.	所有这些进步可谓来得正是时候。


In October, for only the second time in its history, the United Nations General Assembly will address international migration.	10月，联合国大会将讨论国际移民问题，这是联合国历史上的第二次。


The first such summit, in 2006, gave birth to an important new institution, the Global Forum on Migration and Development.	第一次峰会举行于2006年，并成立了一个重要的新机构——全球移民和发展论坛。


In the seven years since, the Forum has helped to foster trust, knowledge, and cooperation among states and other stakeholders.	此后七年来，该论坛帮助不同国家和其他利益相关方之间建立了信任、知识和合作。


Collaboration has led to some stunning gains.	合作已经带来了不少惊人的好处。


Migrants used to pay a fee of almost 15% on average to send money back home; this has fallen to less than 9%, and in some cases nearly to zero, which should be the universal goal.	过去，移民汇款回家平均要缴纳近15%的费用； 该费用如今已经下降至9%，有的甚至已经接近于零，这样的改进能惠及所有人。


Given that migrants remitted $401 billion last year to developing countries alone, such progress is freeing up tens of billions of dollars for some of the world’s poorest households.	去年，光是发展中国家就收到了4010亿美元的侨民汇款，因此这一改进让全球最贫困家庭多了数百亿美元收入。


But even more ambitious action is needed.	但我们需要更有雄心的动作。


When they gather at the UN in October, policymakers should take courage from the reform trailblazers in the US, Germany, the UAE, and elsewhere.	在10月的联合国会议上，决策者应该向美国、德国、阿联酋和其他改革先锋那里吸取勇气。


If profound change is possible at the national level in the face of toxic populism, it should come more easily at the international level, where cooperation produces mostly winners.	如果各国可以战胜有毒害作用的民粹主义、让深刻变革成为可能，那么国际层面的改变就会更加容易，合作会产生最大的赢家。


(The losers generally are bad actors: smugglers, traffickers, abusive recruiters, and exploitative employers.)	（输家则往往是坏行动者：走私贩、毒贩、蛇头和极尽剥削之能事的雇主。 ）


States need not agree on all aspects of migration in order to settle on an agenda for common action.	各国不需要在关于移民的各方面都形成一致才能为共同行动设置日程。


There is no shortage of problems to confront and opportunities to seize.	我们有数不清的问题要面对，也有数不清的机会可以把我。


We need to rein in the bad actors; eliminate discrimination against migrants; sharply reduce human trafficking; increase the share of migrants working at their highest skill level; decriminalize migration violations; end the detention of migrant children; recast refugees as productive members of our communities; and lower the proportion of migrants lacking residency rights.	我们需要制约坏行动者、消灭针对移民的歧视、大力消除人口贩运、增加最高技能水平移民工人的比例、违反移民法的去犯罪化、减少缺少定居权的移民比例。


Some advocates of open borders estimate that unrestricted movement across borders could double global GDP.	一些开放边境的支持者估计，让跨境流动不受限制可以让全球GDP翻一番。


While a borderless world is a political non-starter, that figure does point to the scale of the development gains that a truly well-managed system of global mobility might produce.	尽管无边境的世界在政治上不可能存在，但这一数字的确向我们指出了真正治理良好的全球人口流动制度能产生多大的发展收益。


Migration reform is not for the faint-hearted.	移民改革不是为了胆小者。


But those who want to leave their mark on one of the twenty-first century’s most vital issues – and to create a world in which international migrants are treated equitably and with dignity – will embrace it.	但希望在21世纪最重要问题上名垂青史、建立一个国际移民可以获得尊严和公平对待的世界的人都会支持移民改革。


The Tuberculosis Front	肺结核前线


BERLIN – This has been a good decade in the fight against tuberculosis.	柏林—这个十年是肺结核斗争大有进展的十年。


We are likely to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goal of cutting TB prevalence and mortality in half by 2015, from 1990 levels.	我们也许可以达到2015年将肺结核感染率和死亡率在1990年水平的基础上下降一半的联合国千年发展目标。


At least a dozen new vaccines and drug candidates are in clinical trials, and the World Health Organization has endorsed a new diagnostic test called the GeneXpert.	至少十几种新疫苗和药物候选已进入临床试验，世界卫生组织也支持一项被称为GeneXpert的新诊断测试。


This progress is all the more important given the complacency that led to a complete standstill in research and development for new TB interventions toward the end of the twentieth century.	考虑到在20世纪末，自满曾让肺结核新干预疗法的研发陷入完全停顿，这一进步尤其重要。


The TB drugs currently in use were developed between 1950 and 1970.	目前使用的肺结核药物是1950—1970年间开发出来的。


Indeed, the Bacille Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine is almost 100 years old, while the most widely used diagnostic test, microscopic detection of bacilli in sputum, was developed 130 years ago.	事实上，Bacille Calmette–Guérin（BCG）疫苗问世已近百年，而使用最广的诊断测试——用显微镜检测痰中的细菌数量——更是拥有130年的历史了。


No wonder that the efficacy of these tools has weakened.	毫不奇怪，这些工具的效力已有所减弱。


The current vaccine prevents severe TB in infants, but not the most prevalent pulmonary TB in all age groups.	目前的疫苗可以防止婴儿患上严重肺结核，但对于所有年龄群体最常见的肺结核并无作用。


The microscopic test gives false results in nearly half of all cases.	显微镜观测的出错率也有近一半。


We like to think of TB as a malady of the past.	我们喜欢将肺结核视为过去的顽症。


In fact, nine million people develop the active disease every year, and one in five will die.	事实上，每年都有九百万人发病，致死率高达五分之一。


This places the tubercle bacillus second only to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on the list of top microbial killers.	这意味着结核杆菌是仅次于艾滋病毒的第二号微生物杀手。


One-third of the world’s population is infected with the causative agent, though only one in ten develops the active disease.	全世界三分之一的人都带有肺结核病原体，但只有十分之一会发病。


The bad news is that infected individuals carry the agent with them for their entire lives.	坏消息是，病原体携带者会终生携带病原体。


When one’s immune system weakens, the disease may erupt.	当他的免疫系统变弱时，肺结核就会爆发。


With the emergence in the 1980’s of HIV, which compromises the immune system, TB reemerged, and is the number-one killer of HIV-infected individuals.	随着20世纪80年代出现了艾滋病毒（它会削弱免疫系统），肺结核也重回人间，并成为艾滋病毒携带者第一大致命病因。


Roughly 15 million people suffer from co-infection of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the primary causative agent in most TB cases.	大约1500万人同时感染艾滋病毒和结核分枝杆菌（肺结核的最常见病原体）。


Moreover, the tubercle bacillus engages in trench warfare, gaining resistance to conventional antibiotics and canonical vaccination approaches, as well as delaying diagnosis and determination of drug sensitivity.	此外，结核杆菌擅长阵地战，对常规抗生素和接种方式具有抗药性，对药物敏感性的诊断和确认也具有拖延作用。


Whereas pandemics appear suddenly, spread rapidly, and raise enormous fears of an impending threat, TB has been spreading slowly but consistently for tens of thousands of years, patiently waiting for new opportunities.	通常流行病总是突然出现，快速传播并造成大规模恐慌，而肺结核传播缓慢，但会维持几万年，耐心地等待新机会。


Treatment of TB requires a minimum of three drugs administered over at least six months.	治疗肺结核至少需要三种药物，服用至少六个月。


Compare this with antibiotic treatment of, say, a urogenital infection, which lasts a few weeks at most.	与用抗生素治疗（比如）泌尿系统感染相比，后者最多只需几周便可治愈。


As a result, compliance with TB drug treatment is particularly weak, paving the way for the emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB, which can no longer be treated by conventional therapeutic regimes.	结果，肺结核药物治疗完成率极低，这为多重耐药性（MDR）肺结核的出现创造了条件。 MDR肺结核已不再能够用常规治疗方案治愈。


Some 50 million people are infected with tubercle bacilli that are MDR.	大约5000万人携带者MDR结核杆菌。


While treating MDR-TB remains possible, doing so is arduous, with a treatment time of roughly two years, using drugs that are neither as efficient nor as benign as canonical drugs – and at a cost that rises by a factor of 10-100.	治疗MDR肺结核仍是可能的，但费时费力，大约需持续两年，使用的药物也比常规药物药力更低、副作用更猛，所花费用也要高出十倍。


While this additional cost can be borne by health-care systems in the rich world, it is excessive for poor countries, implying no, or insufficient, treatment.	尽管这一成本在发达国家可以纳入医保，但穷国就无力承担了，这意味着这类肺结核得不到（有效）治疗。


Moreover, in 85 countries, extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB, which is virtually untreatable, has been diagnosed.	此外，有85个国家诊断出了超级耐药性（XDR）肺结核（几乎不可治愈）。


Indeed, surgical resection of affected lungs has become the treatment of choice in many XDR-TB hotspots.	事实上，手术切除受影响肺部已成为许多XDR肺结核高发地区的治疗手段。


Welcome back to the pre-antibiotic era!	欢迎回到前抗生素时代！


So, the question is not whether we need novel drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics, but when they will become available.	因此，问题不在于我们是否需要新药、新疫苗和新诊断法，而是它们什么时候能成为现实。


The new GeneXpert test diagnoses not only TB, but also, in the same step, MDR-TB, which means that it can rapidly direct adequate treatment and prevent infection of contacts – a true breakthrough.	新的GeneXpert测试不仅能诊断肺结核，还能同时诊断MDR肺结核，这意味着它能迅速引导充分治疗并防止接触感染——名副其实的突破。


Unfortunately, the test is expensive and sophisticated, putting it out of reach for many poor countries.	不幸的是，这一测试十分昂贵和复杂，不是一般穷国负担得起的。


A number of other drugs – some new and some repurposed – are currently in the last stage of clinical trials, and one new drug has been approved by US regulators for treatment of MDR-TB even before such trials have been completed.	其他许多药物——有些是新药，有些是改良药——已进入临床试验的最后阶段，其中一种新药已被美国监管者批准用于MDR肺结核治疗，虽然其临床试验尚未完成。


But the first potential vaccine to be tested for efficacy recently failed miserably.	但第一种进入效力测试的潜在疫苗最终以惨败收场。


So, the good news of the last decade is just a glimmer of hope.	因此，过去十年的好消息也仅仅是一丝希望的曙光。


We still have a long way to go, and accelerated R&D to develop new drugs and vaccines can be achieved only with increased funding.	前路仍然漫长，加速新药品和疫苗的研发离不开增加资金支持。


Unfortunately, private-sector incentives for developing new TB interventions are too weak.	不幸的是，开发新肺结核干预方法的私人部门激励太弱了。


New approaches, such as partnerships between public research institutions and private industry, are needed.	必须依靠新的新方法，如公共研究机构和私人企业的合作。


While clinical trials of the most promising drugs and vaccines need to be pursued, we also need to go back to the drawing board and develop entirely new tactics.	我们需要对大部分潜在高效药品和疫苗进行临床测试，也需要重新规划蓝图，构想新的策略。


Current annual funding for R&D devoted to TB is estimated to be $500 million.	目前，每年用于肺结核研发的资金大约在5亿美元。


But more than $2 billion is needed annually.	但年资金需求量高达20亿美元。


That amount may seem unrealistically high, but it is a negligible proportion of the estimated $160 billion spent on health-related R&D worldwide.	这个数字或许看起来高得不切实际，但和全球1600亿美元的医疗相关研发资金相比并不多。


More important, the economic burden of TB has been put as high as $20 billion annually – and even higher if the losses in human capital are included.	更重要的是，肺结核带来的经济负担高达每年200亿美元——如果将人力资本损失也包括在内还会更高。


If we choose to continue suffering these losses, we might save some money in the short term.	如果我们选择继续承受这些损失，那么不如省点短期资金。


The wiser course, however, is to make the necessary investments today, thereby averting a much larger bill tomorrow.	但是，更明智的做法是在今天投入必要的投资，从而避免明天更大的损失。


Sustainable Development Economics	可持续发展经济学


PARIS – Two schools of thought tend to dominate today’s economic debates.	巴黎—今天的经济学争论通常由两大学派主宰。


According to free-market economists, governments should cut taxes, reduce regulations, reform labor laws, and then get out of the way to let consumers consume and producers create jobs.	自由市场经济学家认为，政府应该减税、减少监管、改革劳动法，并让路使消费者消费、生产者创造就业。


According to Keynesian economics, governments should boost total demand through quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus.	凯恩斯主义经济学家认为，政府应该通过量化宽松和财政刺激提振总需求。


Yet neither approach is delivering good results.	但两种方法都没有带来好结果。


We need a new Sustainable Development Economics, with governments promoting new types of investments.	我们需要新的可持续发展经济学，让政府推进新型投资。


Free-market economics leads to great outcomes for the rich, but pretty miserable outcomes for everyone else.	自由市场经济学为富人创造了了不起的结果，但给其他所有人带来了非常悲惨的结果。


Governments in the United States and parts of Europe are cutting back on social spending, job creation, infrastructure investment, and job training because the rich bosses who pay for politicians’ election campaigns are doing very well for themselves, even as the societies around them are crumbling.	名美国和一些欧洲国家的政府缩减社会支出、就业创造、基础设施投资和职业培训，因为向政客选战提供献金的富有老板把自己服务得很好，即使在周边社会举步维艰时也是如此。


Yet Keynesian solutions – easy money and large budget deficits – have also fallen far short of their promised results.	但凯恩斯主义方案——货币宽松和大规模预算赤字——远远不能带来承诺的结果。


Many governments tried stimulus spending after the 2008 financial crisis.	许多政府在2008年金融危机后尝试了刺激性支出。


After all, most politicians love to spend money they don’t have.	毕竟，大部分政客都喜欢花不是自己的钱。


Yet the short-term boost failed in two big ways.	但短期提振因为两大原因没有奏效。


First, governments’ debt soared and their credit ratings plummeted.	首先，政府债务大幅上升，而信用评级大幅下降。


Even the US lost its AAA standing.	就连美国也失去了AAA评级。


Second, the private sector did not respond by increasing business investment and hiring enough new workers.	其次，私人部门并没有以增加商业投资、雇用足够多新员工的方式做出反应。


Instead, companies hoarded vast cash reserves, mainly in tax-free offshore accounts.	相反，公司囤积了大量现金，大部分保存在免税的离岸账户中。


The problem with both free-market and Keynesian economics is that they misunderstand the nature of modern investment.	自由市场和凯恩斯主义经济学的问题在于它们误解了现代投资的性质。


Both schools believe that investment is led by the private sector, either because taxes and regulations are low (in the free-market model) or because aggregate demand is high (in the Keynesian model).	两大学派都认为投资由私人部门领导，这是因为税收和监管较低（自由市场模型）或总需求较高（凯恩斯主义模型）。


Yet private-sector investment today depends on investment by the public sector.	但今天的私人部门投资取决于公共部门投资。


Our age is defined by this complementarity.	我们的时代特征是互补。


Unless the public sector invests, and invests wisely, the private sector will continue to hoard its funds or return them to shareholders in the forms of dividends or buybacks.	除非公共部门投资了，并且投资得相当明智，否则私人部门将继续囤积资金或以分红或回购的形式将它们返回给股东。


The key is to reflect on six kinds of capital goods: business capital, infrastructure, human capital, intellectual capital, natural capital, and social capital.	关键是思考六种资本商品：商业资本、基础设施、人力资本、知识资本、自然资本和社会资本。


All of these are productive, but each has a distinctive role.	所有这些资本都是生产性资本，但作用大不相同。


Business capital includes private companies’ factories, machines, transport equipment, and information systems.	商业资本包括私人公司的厂房、机器、运输设备和信息��统。


Infrastructure includes roads, railways, power and water systems, fiber optics, pipelines, and airports and seaports.	基础设施包括公路、铁路、水电系统、光纤、管道、机场港口等。


Human capital is the education, skills, and health of the workforce.	人力资本是指劳动力的教育、技能和卫生。


Intellectual capital includes society’s core scientific and technological know-how.	知识资本包括社会核心科学和技术知识。


Natural capital is the ecosystems and primary resources that support agriculture, health, and cities.	自然资本是支持农业、健康和城市的生态系统和基本资源。


And social capital is the communal trust that makes efficient trade, finance, and governance possible.	社会资本是使有效贸易、金融和治理成为可能的公信。


These six forms of capital work in a complementary way.	这六种形式的资本以互补的方式起作用。


Business investment without infrastructure and human capital cannot be profitable.	没有基础设施和人力资本，商业投资就不可能盈利。


Nor can financial markets work if social capital (trust) is depleted.	如果社会资本（信任）耗尽，金融资本也无法运行。


Without natural capital (including a safe climate, productive soils, available water, and protection against flooding), the other kinds of capital are easily lost. And without universal access to public investments in human capital, societies will succumb to extreme inequalities of income and wealth.	没有自然资本（包括安全的气候、肥沃的土壤、易得的水源和防洪措施），其他类型的资本就很容易失去。


Investment used to be a far simpler matter.	过去，投资比现在容易很多。


The key to development was basic education, a network of roads and power, a functioning port, and access to world markets.	发展的关键是基础教育、公路和电力网络、功能健全的港口以及能够进入全球市场。 但是，如今基本公共教育已不再足够；


Today, however, basic public education is no longer enough; workers need highly specialized skills that come through vocational training, advanced degrees, and apprenticeship programs that combine public and private funding.	工人需要高度专业化的技能，这一技能来自职业培训、高文凭和结合了公共和私人融资的学徒计划。 交通必须更加智能，而不仅仅是政府道路建设；


Transport must be smarter than mere government road building; power grids must reflect the urgent need for low-carbon electricity; and governments everywhere must invest in new kinds of intellectual capital to solve unprecedented problems of public health, climate change, environmental degradation, information systems management, and more.	电网必须反映低碳电力的迫切需要； 各国政府还必须投资于新类型的知识资本以解决前所未有的公共健康、气候变化、环境恶化、信息系统管理等问题。


Yet in most countries, governments are not leading, guiding, or even sharing in the investment process.	但在大部分国家，政府并没有在投资过程中起到领导、指引乃至共享的作用。


They are cutting back.	它们在拖后腿。


Free-market ideologues claim that governments are incapable of productive investment.	自由市场理论家认为政府没有能力进行生产性投资。


Nor do Keynesians think through the kinds of public investments that are needed; for them, spending is spending.	凯恩斯主义者也没有厘清我们所需要的公共投资类型； 对他们来说，支出就是支出。


The result is a public-sector vacuum and a dearth of public investments, which in turn holds back necessary private-sector investment.	结果是公共部门真空和公共投资不足，这反过来又拖累了必要的私人部门投资。


Governments, in short, need long-term investment strategies and ways to pay for them.	它们需要更好地明白如何区分公路、铁路、电力和港口投资的优先顺序； 如何通过转向低碳能源系统让投资在环境上更加可持续；


They need to understand much better how to prioritize road, rail, power, and port investments; how to make investments environmentally sustainable by moving to a low-carbon energy system; how to train young workers for decent jobs, not only low-wage service-sector employment; and how to build social capital, in an age when there is little trust and considerable corruption.	如何训练新员工为体面工作而不仅仅是底薪服务业岗位做好准备； 以及如何在信任缺失、腐败横行的当下构建社会资本。


In short, governments need to learn to think ahead.	简言之，政府需要事先学习和思考。


This, too, runs counter to the economic mainstream.	这也与经济学主流背道而驰。


Free-market ideologues don’t want governments to think at all; and Keynesians want governments to think only about the short run, because they take to an extreme John Maynard Keynes’ famous quip, “In the long run we are all dead.”	自由市场思想家希望政府什么都不要想； 凯恩斯主义者希望政府只思考短期，因为他们原因凯恩斯的著名评论，认为“长期看，我们都死了。


Here’s a thought that is anathema in Washington, DC, but worthy of reflection.	有一种思想，被华盛顿视为异类，但值得深思。


The world’s fastest growing economy, China, relies on five-year plans for public investment, which is managed by the National Development and Reform Commission.	世界上增长最快的经济体——中国依赖公共投资的“五年规划”，该规划由国家发改委负责管理。


The US has no such institution, or indeed any agency that looks systematically at public-investment strategies.	美国没有类似的机构，或者说确实没有系统性地负责公共投资战略的机构。


But all countries now need more than five-year plans; they need 20-year, generation-long strategies to build the skills, infrastructure, and low-carbon economy of the twenty-first century.	但如今所有国家都需要五年规划甚至更多； 它们需要20年、跨越一代人的战略以构建二十一世纪的技能、基础设施和低碳经济。


The G-20 recently took a small step in the right direction, by placing new emphasis on increased infrastructure investment as a shared responsibility of both the public and private sectors.	最近，G-20迈出了方向正确的一小步，将强调增加基础设施投资作为公共和私人部门的共同责任。


We need much more of this kind of thinking in the year ahead, as governments negotiate new global agreements on financing for sustainable development (in Addis Ababa in July 2015); Sustainable Development Goals (at the United Nations in September 2015), and climate change (in Paris in December 2015).	在未来几年中，各国政府将商谈新的可持续发展融资全球协议（2015年亚的斯亚贝巴会议）、可持续发展目标（2015年9月联合国大会）和气候变化（2015年12月巴黎会议），我们需要更多的类似思维。


These agreements promise to shape humanity’s future for the better.	这些协议有望带来更好的人类未来。


If they are to succeed, the new Age of Sustainable Development should give rise to a new Economics of Sustainable Development as well.	要想成功，新的可持续发展时代应该带来新的可持续发展经济学。


The Enduring Egypt-Iran Divide	埃及和伊朗间的长期鸿沟


WASHINGTON, DC – Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi may look besieged at home, but by brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in November, he enhanced his diplomatic stature mightily across the entire Middle East.	华盛顿——埃及总统穆罕默德·穆尔西或许在国内政治中陷入重围，但由于11月促成以色列和哈马斯停火，他在整个中东地区大幅提高了自己的外交声誉。


Indeed, as 2012 comes to a close, Egypt’s centrality to regional diplomacy has been restored.	事实上，在2012年即将结束之际，埃及已经恢复了在地区外交事务中的核心地位。


The big question for 2013 is whether Morsi will follow his achievement in Gaza by tackling another major diplomatic challenge: rebuilding relations with Iran after more than three decades of animosity.	2013年的首要问题是穆尔西能否再续加沙辉煌，解决另一个重大的外交难题：结束超过30年的相互敌视并重塑与伊朗的关系。


Initially, the Muslim Brotherhood’s ascent to power in the aftermath of the massive popular protests that toppled Morsi’s predecessor, Hosni Mubarak, inspired hope of renewed diplomatic ties with Iran.	起初，穆斯林兄弟会在推翻穆尔西前任胡斯尼·穆巴拉克的大规模民众抗议运动后上台执政点燃了重塑埃伊外交关系的希望。


But, despite shared ideological principles, significant political obstacles continue to inhibit bilateral cooperation.	但尽管具备共同的思想原则，重大政治障碍却继续阻碍着双边合作关系。


Relations between the two countries collapsed in 1980, after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power in Iran’s Islamic Revolution and severed ties in response to Egypt’s formal recognition of Israel the previous year.	阿亚图拉·霍梅尼在伊朗伊斯兰革命后上台并因埃及在一年前正式承认以色列而在1980年断绝了两国关系。


Egypt’s then-president, Anwar El Sadat, granted the exiled Shah of Iran permission to live in Egypt, and supported Iraq in its eight-year war with the Islamic Republic.	埃及当时的总统安瓦尔·萨达特允许流亡国外的伊朗国王定居埃及，并在伊拉克与伊朗伊斯兰共和国的八年战争中对伊拉克予以支持。


The Shah was ultimately buried in a mosque in Cairo.	国王最后被安葬在开罗的一所清真寺。


After Mubarak’s ouster last year, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei welcomed the prospect of Islamist rule, with delegations from both countries exchanging visits.	去年穆巴拉克下台后，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊表态欢迎伊斯兰统治，两国代表团也开始进行互访活动。


For Khamenei, the “Arab Spring” was in fact an “Islamic Awakening.”	在哈梅内伊看来，“阿拉伯之春”和“伊斯兰觉醒”其实是一回事。


Islamists in Iran and Egypt have a strong ideological connection.	伊朗和埃及的伊斯兰教徒在意识形态领域一直联系密切。


They share anti-Israel sentiment, and support Hamas against the secular-nationalist Fatah in the Palestinians’ internecine struggle.	他们同样表现出强烈的反以情绪，在巴勒斯坦内讧中支持哈马斯、反对奉行世俗民族主义的法塔赫。


Committed to governance under Sharia (Islamic law), they both view Western culture as a threat.	两国同样信奉伊斯兰教法执政，同样将西方文化视为威胁。


Iran has made some efforts to establish stronger economic relations with Egypt’s Islamist government and, in turn, cement a powerful anti-Israel front in the region.	伊朗努力同埃及伊斯兰政府加强经济联系，借以巩固该地区的反以同盟。


Iran’s attempt to strike a deal to sell Egypt crude oil would also help the Iranian government to cope with economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union.	伊朗与埃及达成原油销售协议也有助于伊朗政府对抗美国和欧盟的经济制裁措施。


But, although Iran’s oil minister, Rostam Qassemi, said in October that negotiations were underway, Egypt’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources, Osama Kamal, quickly disavowed any such deal.	但尽管伊朗石油部长卡赛米10月公开表示谈判正在进行，埃及石油及矿产资源部长卡迈勒很快否认了签订类似协议。


Beyond economics, Khamenei has an emotional attachment to Egypt.	除经济因素外，哈梅内伊与埃及还有感情联系。


A student of the Egyptian style of Koran recitation, he gathers Koran reciters from Egypt, as well as from other Islamic countries, in his home every Ramadan.	哈梅内伊曾专修埃及式古兰经朗诵，每个斋月都要在家中召集来自埃及和其他伊斯兰国家的古兰经朗诵人士。


More important, his outlook has been heavily influenced by the writings of Sayyid Qutb, the Egyptian theoretician of the Muslim Brotherhood.	尤为重要的是他的观点深受穆斯林兄弟会埃及理论家赛义德·库特卜著作的影响。


Prior to the revolution, Khamenei translated three of Qutb’s books into Farsi.	革命爆发前，哈梅内伊曾将三部库特卜的著作翻译成波斯语。


Despite these ideological affinities, political disagreements make a rapprochement unlikely.	虽然在意识形态领域颇多相似之处，但政治分歧严重限制了和解的可能性。


The Muslim Brotherhood considers itself the bastion of modern political Islam, and believes that it should assume a leadership role for all Islamist groups and states.	穆斯林兄弟会自诩为现代政治伊斯兰的堡垒，并坚信将在所有伊斯兰团体和国家中发挥领导作用。


For his part, Khamenei describes himself as the “leader of the Islamic world,” and calls Iran its “mother city” (Umm al Qora).	哈梅内伊自诩为“伊斯兰世界的领袖”，并将伊朗命名为“母亲城”（Umm al Qora）。


Moreover, the Sunni-Shia divide could pose a major challenge for Egypt-Iran relations.	此外，逊尼派和什叶派的分歧可能严重影响埃伊两国关系。


The Muslim Brotherhood is working to strengthen ties with Sunni allies, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and even Turkey, rather than with Iran’s Shia regime, which threatens Sunni regimes by exporting revolution and pitting Shia minorities against their governments.	相比伊朗的什叶派政权，穆斯林兄弟会正努力加强与沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、甚至土耳其等逊尼派盟友的关系。 伊朗什叶派政权通过输出革命及鼓动什叶派少数民族对抗其各自政府而对逊尼派政权构成威胁。


In fact, since Mubarak’s ouster, anti-Shia propaganda has gained traction in the Egyptian public sphere, with books alleging Shia corruption of Islam’s true meaning filling the shelves of Cairo’s bookstores.	事实上从穆巴拉克下台以后，埃及公共领域已经掀起一场反什叶派的宣传攻势，开罗书店的书架上随处可见指责什叶派败坏伊斯兰真正教义的书籍。


But this campaign largely reflects the growing influence of Egypt’s Sunni allies – particularly the Gulf monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia – rather than a genuine threat from Egypt’s small and quiescent Shia community.	但这项运动大体上反映了埃及逊尼派盟友，特别是以沙特阿拉伯为首的海湾君主国的影响力增强——而并非埃及沉默且为数不多的什叶派群体构成了什么真正的威胁。


In the Gulf States, Shia have led pro-democracy movements, challenging Sunni governments that have deprived them of their rights.	什叶派在海湾国家领导民主运动，挑战剥夺其权利的逊尼派政府。


But these governments attribute the protests to Iranian agitation, not to legitimate domestic grievances.	但上述政府将抗议活动归咎于伊朗的煽动，而非国内不满情绪的合理宣泄。


For them, the conflict between Arabs and Iranians is fundamentally a Sunni-Shia struggle.	在他们看来，阿拉伯人和伊朗人之间的冲突实质上是逊尼派和什叶派的争斗。


These countries then export their anti-Shia discourse to countries, like Egypt, that do not necessarily have a history of Sunni-Shia conflict.	之后上述国家将反什叶派言论输出到埃及等并不一定有过逊尼什叶派冲突的国家。


Indeed, many of Cairo’s cultural landmarks, for example, were built under the Shia Fatimid Caliphate.	其实开罗众多的文化地标建筑都是什叶派法蒂玛王朝时期修建的。


And, before last year’s revolution, Egypt was considered one of the most Shia-friendly Sunni countries in the Arab world.	而且在去年爆发革命前，埃及曾被认为是阿拉伯世界对待什叶派最友好的逊尼派国家。


But the Muslim Brotherhood remains financially dependent on the Gulf monarchies, which are using Egypt as a platform for their anti-Shia, anti-Iran agenda.	但穆斯林兄弟会在财政上依然有赖于海湾君主国，而后者则将埃及作为反什叶派反伊朗政策的基地。


The most urgent dispute between Iran and Egypt, however, relates to Syria.	但伊���和埃及之间最紧迫的纠纷牵扯到叙利亚。


During its years in opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood considered Iran’s Islamic Revolution an example of how a transnational Islamist government might assume power.	在多年的反对派生涯中，穆斯林兄弟会认定伊朗伊斯兰革命是跨国伊斯兰政府上台的实例。


But, in the face of a popular uprising in Syria, Iran has supported the brutal, repressive policies of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.	但面对叙利亚的民众起义，伊朗一直支持巴沙尔·阿萨德总统政权的残酷镇压政策。


As a result, Islamists in Egypt are beginning to view Iran as a status quo power, not an agent of revolutionary change.	埃及的伊斯兰教徒因此将伊朗视为维持现状的力量，而不是革命性的变化因素。


Furthermore, the flow of military supplies from Iran, together with battlefield support for Assad’s regime from Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, reinforce the perception of a Sunni-Shia conflict in Syria.	此外，伊朗军用物资流动和伊朗的黎巴嫩代理真主党给予阿萨德政权的战地支持强化了叙利亚逊尼什叶派冲突的看法。


In this context, the collapse of Assad’s regime would likely exacerbate tensions between Iran and Egypt – especially given that Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood, the leading opposition group, would likely play a strong, even dominant, role in a new Syrian order.	在上述情况下，尤其考虑到叙利亚的主要反对党穆斯林兄弟会有可能在叙利亚新秩序中占据强势主导地位，阿萨德政权的倒台可能会加剧伊朗和埃及之间的紧张关系。


For now, Egypt’s government is putting national interests ahead of pan-Islamist aspirations.	从现在的情况看，埃及政府将国家利益置于泛伊斯兰主义的诉求之上。


Rather than inciting an escalation in fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Egypt worked with the US and other regional allies to broker a cease-fire.	埃及并没有煽动以色列和哈马斯在加沙地带的交火升级，相反却与美国和其他区域盟国合作敦促双方签订停火协议。


By contrast, Iran’s military leaders boasted about their support for Hamas, offering no indication that they wanted the fighting to end.	反之，伊朗军方领导人却大肆鼓吹对哈马斯的支持，丝毫没有表现出希望战斗迅速结束的迹象。


Less than two years after Egypt’s revolution, Morsi’s government is struggling to address domestic challenges, including the proliferation of armed radical groups in Sinai.	埃及革命结束不到两年后，穆尔西政府正在努力应对国内的挑战，包括武装激进组织在西奈半岛的扩散。


But, as regional tensions continue to rise, the chances of an Egypt-Iran détente are likely to deteriorate.	但随着地区紧张局势的不断升级，埃及和伊朗关系缓和的机会有可能不断恶化。


A New Business Model for Cyprus	塞浦路斯的全新商业模式


MADRID – Once again, Europe has peered into the abyss.	马德里——欧洲又一次面临万丈深渊。


But the tentative agreement between Cyprus and the troika (the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank) probably means that the worst has been avoided.	但塞浦路斯与三驾马车（欧盟委员会、国际货币基金组织和欧洲央行）达成初步协议或许意味着最坏的结果已经避免。


Big losses for large depositors in Cypriot banks will now be imposed, and the country’s second-largest bank will be shuttered.	塞浦路斯银行大储户将被迫接受巨额损失，该国的第二大银行也将关门停业。


Looking ahead, however, Cyprus has the means not only to recover, but even to heal its longstanding division with the Turkish-backed statelet in the north of the island.	然而展望未来，塞浦路斯不但有能力恢复增长，甚至有可能弥合与岛屿北部土耳其支持的小国间由来已久的分裂。


Cyprus, of course, is just the latest country to be hit by the economic crisis surging through the Mediterranean.	当然，塞浦路斯在地中海国家中充其量是遭受经济危机打击的最新实例。


For years, Cyprus had an immense banking bubble, with the sector’s assets estimated at roughly seven times the country’s GDP, as foreign money poured into a tax haven within the eurozone’s secure environment.	多年以来，随着境外资金争相涌入欧元区安全环境中的避税天堂，塞浦路斯积累了巨大的金融泡沫，其银行资产预计约为国内生产总值的7倍。


The design of the bailout has been shaped both by domestic pressures faced by eurozone leaders and by the exceptional nature of the Cypriot banking bubble: many European leaders suspect that the island had become a money-laundering center for Russian individuals and entities, which pumped an estimated one-third of the €68 billion into the country’s banks.	对欧元区领导的国内压力和塞浦路斯异乎寻常的金融泡沫共同决定了紧急援助计划的内容。 很多欧洲领导人怀疑塞浦路斯已经成为俄国个人和实体的洗钱胜地。


Regardless of the details of the ultimate deal, the risk is that the ghost of Russia’s bailout of Cyprus in 2011 could provoke severe side effects across Southern Europe, both for governments’ borrowing costs and for small savers.	680亿欧元的巨额资金被注入塞浦路斯的银行系统。 无论最终协议细节如何，2011年俄国紧急援助塞浦路斯的幽灵均可能对南欧地区政府借贷成本及小储户产生严重的负面影响。


Nevertheless, it is imperative not to lose sight of some very valuable assets that Cyprus holds – assets that could mean the country’s economic salvation.	尽管如此，我们不能忽略塞浦路斯持有的某些有价值资产，上述资产或许可以救国家经济于水火之中。


In 2011, the American energy company Noble discovered some 200 billion cubic meters of gas in the Eastern Mediterranean – the value of this block, known as the Aphrodite gas field, has been estimated at some €80 billion.	2011年，美国诺布尔能源公司在东地中海发现约2，000亿立方米天然气——阿佛洛狄忒气田的区块价值估计约合800亿欧元。


Work has already begun on extraction, with production expected to commence in 2018.	天然气开采工作已经开始，预计将于2018年正式投产。


Experts say that the reserves could provide some 100 years of energy for Cyprus – and an alternative supply source for energy-hungry Europe.	专家认为上述储备能够为塞浦路斯提供百年能源，同时也为急需能源的欧洲提供替代供应产地。


In fact, in the search for an acceptable bailout package, the future revenues from these assets were at one point considered as possible guarantees.	其实在确定可行的紧急援助计划时，上述资产的未来收入曾一度被视为潜在的抵押品。


The United States Geological Survey has estimated that the Levant Basin, which extends across the Israeli, Cypriot, and Lebanese seabed, contains some 3.45 trillion cubic meters of recoverable natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil.	据美国地质调查局统计，横跨以色列、塞浦路斯及黎巴嫩海底的黎凡特盆地包含约3. 45万亿立方米的可采天然气和17亿桶石油。


Given their geographic location, however, these incredible reserves can be uncapped, extracted, and exported only on the basis of inter-state cooperation.	不过鉴于其地理位置，只有跨国合作才能开采并出口这些令人惊叹的储备能源。


As with all marine gas and oil deposits, the rights to the waters and the riches below are critical.	埋藏财富的水域及其所有权至关重要，这一点与所有海洋石油和天然气储备并无不同。


And, given such riches, competition might appear lucrative at first sight.	而且面对这样的财富，竞争乍看上去似乎有利可图。


But cooperation stands to enlarge the pie.	但合作是将蛋糕做大的必由之路。


Moreover, economic agreements may promote closer cooperation in other realms.	此外，经济协议可以促进在其他领域的更为紧密的合作。


Energy matters have already led to an unprecedented warming in relations between countries such as Israel and Cyprus in recent years, with an agreement signed in 2010 formally delimiting these states’ respective exclusive economic zones.	能源问题已导致近年来以色列和塞浦路斯等国关系史无前例地回暖，其中2010年签署的协议正式划定了上述国家各自的专属经济区。


It is not unimaginable that this type of cooperation could be extended to include other neighbors around the Levant.	拓展合作范围并吸纳黎凡特盆地的其他邻国并非不可思议。


The good news is that Cyprus’s newly elected president, Nicos Anastasiades, may be open to such an agenda.	好消息是塞浦路斯新当选总统尼科斯·阿纳斯塔夏季斯或许会接受这样的议程。


Naturally, much will depend on how he fares politically in the current turmoil surrounding the bailout package.	自然，他在现行救市方案所引发混乱中的政治表现将在很大程度上决定他能否有所作为。


Anastasiades, a member of the pro-European Dimokratikós Sinayermós (Democratic Rally) party, won 57% of the popular vote on a platform that emphasized economic recovery, and this will naturally be his top priority.	亲欧洲民主联盟成员阿纳斯塔夏季斯借助强调经济复苏的平台赢得了57%的民众选票，实现经济复苏当然会成为他的首要任务。


Nevertheless, a cautious look beyond the current turbulence – and into Anastasiades’s history – provides grounds for optimism.	尽管如此，透过当前动荡局势谨慎回顾阿纳斯塔夏季斯的经历为我们提供了乐观的理由。


In 2004, Anastasiades and his party supported the Annan Plan, developed by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and supported by the European Union.	2004年，阿纳斯塔夏季斯及其政党对由前联合国秘书长科菲·安南提议并获欧盟首肯的安南计划表示了支持。


Annan’s reunification proposal provided the blueprint for a “United Republic of Cyprus” comprising a federation of two states.	安南的统一计划描绘了一幅由两个国家组成的“塞浦路斯共和国”的蓝图。


When put to a referendum, roughly two-thirds of the island’s 250,000 Turkish Cypriots in the north supported the Annan Plan, but 76% of the 860,000 Greek Cypriots in the south rejected it.	全民公决时，北部250,000名土族塞浦路斯人约三分之二支持安南计划，但南部860,000名希族塞浦路斯人却有76%表示反对。


It is not inconceivable, however, that Anastasiades’s victory could provide impetus for reopening the dialogue between the island’s north and south – that is, once the current crisis has passed.	而一旦结束当前危机，阿纳斯塔夏季斯的胜利推动南北重启对话也并非不可想象。


Such an outcome would be a major breakthrough for Cyprus and the region.	这样的结果将是塞浦路斯及所在地区的重大突破。


Resolving the island’s longstanding division would nest Cyprus more comfortably in the EU, and the economic effects would be manifold, extending throughout the eastern Mediterranean.	消除岛上长期分裂会使塞浦路斯更充分地融入欧盟，并将产生波及整个地中海东部地区的全方位的经济影响。


For example, both Turkey and Greece could reduce their military spending (though naturally to varying degrees, given their respective geopolitical environments).	比方说，土耳其和希腊均有可能削减军事开支（虽然考虑到两国各自的地缘政治环境，其开支削减程度或许会有所不同）。


Greece is the second-largest defense spender, relative to GDP, in the EU; clearly, in today’s economic climate, savings here could provide hugely welcome budget relief.	希腊在欧盟国家中国防开支相对于国内生产总值的占比排名第二； 毋庸置疑，在当前经济环境下，在上述领域节约开支是大幅缓解预算压力的受欢迎举措。


And the Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Öcalan’s recent call for a ceasefire is an encouraging sign that Turkey, too, stands to benefit from a peace dividend.	而库尔德反政府武装领导人阿卜杜拉·奥贾兰最近呼吁停火传递出令人振奋的信号，奥贾兰的所作所为表明和平红利也能够惠及土耳其。


Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s visit to Istanbul earlier this month was a heartening sign that tensions between Greece and Turkey are already beginning to ease.	本月初希腊总理安东尼斯·萨马拉斯访问伊斯坦布尔释放出令人鼓舞的信号，此次出访表明希腊和土耳其间的紧张关系已经开始缓和。


A deepening of cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean would provide myriad economic opportunities, not least the many related to developing the region’s cross-border maritime gas reserves.	在地中海东部地区深化合作将带来大量的经济机会，其中很多机会与开发该地区跨境海上天然气资源有关。


Anastasiades has endured a perfect economic storm during his first month in office, and the current crisis is certain to continue to dominate his agenda.	阿纳斯塔夏季斯就职首月就经历了一场完美的经济风暴，而且当前危机无疑还会继续主宰他的议程。


But, beyond today’s tempest, there is light on the horizon.	但渡过今天的暴风骤雨，就能迎来地平线上的曙光。


Cyprus, and its neighbors, must now pull together to reach it.	塞浦路斯及其邻国必须齐心协力实现这一目标。


Harnessing the Power of Teenage Girls	利用少女的力量


LAGOS – When you think of teenage girls, you might imagine common stereotypes, from the “mean girl” to the sullen high school student locked in her bedroom.	拉各斯—当你想到少女时，可能会有刻板印象，比如“贱女孩”和将自己锁在卧室里的忧郁女高中生。


The reality is that teenage girls are not only some of the world’s most marginalized people; they also have virtually unmatched potential to help build a better future for all.	现实是少女不但是全世界最被边缘化的人群，她们也拥有着几乎无可比拟的为所有人构建更美好未来的潜力。


As it stands, adolescent girls are routinely denied control over their destinies.	目前，青春期女孩常常无法控制自己的命运。


More than 32 million of the poorest are currently out of school.	超过2,200万最贫困少女辍学。


Every day, 39,000 girls under the age of 18 become someone’s wife.	每天都有39,000位18岁以下女孩成为某个人的妻子。


For huge numbers of girls worldwide, reproductive rights seem like an impossible dream.	对全世界为数巨大的女孩来说，生育权几乎是一个不可能的梦。


This situation is morally reprehensible, socially self-defeating, and economically foolish.	这一状况不容于道德和社会，在经济上也十分愚蠢。


By addressing it, we could not only protect millions of children; we could also tackle some of the greatest challenges facing the world today.	如果能够解决这个问题，我们不但能保护数百万儿童； 还能战胜当今世界所面临的一些最艰巨的挑战。


Consider the challenge posed by rapid population growth.	以人口快速增长的挑战为例。


Though population size seems to be leveling off in most parts of the world, it continues to rise fast in some regions, particularly those where girls face the highest barriers to success.	尽管世界上大部分地区的人口规模正在下降，但在某些地区，人口仍在迅速增加，特别是女孩面临的成功壁垒最高的地区。


In Africa, the population is expected to double by 2050 and quadruple by 2100.	在非洲，预计到2050年人口将翻一番，到2100年将翻两番。


If teenage girls were given the knowledge, skills, and tools to avoid unwanted pregnancy and take control of their own futures, fertility rates would drop substantially.	如果少女能够获得知识、技能和工具避免非自愿怀孕并赢得自身未来的控制权，那么生育率将显著下降。


These newly empowered and educated girls could then become agents for broader positive change within their communities.	这些新获得权利、受过教育的女孩还能成为所在社区更广泛的积极变化的推动者。


Protecting the world’s young girls is a tall order.	保护全世界年轻女孩是一个艰巨的任务。


But countries worldwide have pledged, through the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to fulfill it by 2030, including by ending child marriage and ensuring that all girls are in school.	但世界各国通过宏大的可持续发展目标（SDG）做出了要在2030年完成这一任务的承诺，包括消灭童婚和确保所有女孩都有学上。


But if countries are to succeed in protecting and empowering girls, they must also embrace the promise of a key initiative: to expand access to the vaccine for human papillomavirus, which causes the vast majority of cervical cancer cases.	但如果各国想要在女孩保护和赋权方面取得成功，就必须做好一个关键步骤：扩大人乳头瘤病毒疫苗的普及度。 人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）是绝大部分宫颈癌的致病原因。


A relatively new development, the HPV vaccine is most effective on nine- to 13-year-old girls who have not yet been exposed to the virus, meaning that they have never been sexually active.	HPV疫苗是一项相对较新的技术，对9—13岁尚未接触过该病毒的女孩效果最好。 这意味着她们从来没有过性活动。


This age requirement differentiates the HPV vaccine from most other childhood vaccines, which are mainly administered to infants.	这一年龄要求将HPV疫苗与其他儿童疫苗（主要在婴儿期接种）区别开来。


At first glance, this might seem like a serious disadvantage, because the HPV vaccine cannot simply be incorporated into other vaccine initiatives.	乍一看，这似乎是一个严重的劣势，因为HPV疫苗根本无法纳入其他疫苗计划。


In fact, the age requirement provides an important opportunity to reach adolescent girls with other vital health services, such as reproductive education, menstrual hygiene, deworming, nutrition checks, vitamin shots, and general check-ups.	事实上，年龄要求提供了一个重要的机会让青春期女孩获得其他重要的健康服务，如生殖教育、经期卫生、驱虫、营养检查、维生素针剂和普���体检等。


Encouragingly, developing-country governments have increasingly been demanding the HPV vaccine.	令人鼓舞的是，发展中国家政府越来越多地要求HPV疫苗。


This makes sense: of the 266,000 women who die from cervical cancer every year – an average of one every two minutes – 85% are in developing countries.	这很有意义：在每年死于宫颈癌的266,000名女性中——平均没两分钟就有一人——85%生活在发展中国家。


If left unchecked, that figure is expected to rise to 416,000 by 2035, overtaking maternal deaths.	如果放任自流的话，这一数字将在2035年增加到416,000，超过难产。


For many of these countries, the HPV vaccine is not just an effective solution, one that prevents 1,500 deaths per 100,000 vaccinated; it is often the only solution, because the poorest countries lack the capacity to offer screening or treatment for cervical cancer.	在许多发展中国家，HPV疫苗不但是有效的解决办法——每10,000名接种者可以减少1,500人死亡——也常常是唯一的办法，因为最贫困国家没有能力为宫颈癌提供监控和治疗。


This is one reason why cancer experts, government officials, private-sector leaders, and civil society representatives met a few weeks ago in Addis Ababa for the tenth Stop Cervical, Breast and Prostate Cancer in Africa conference.	因此，癌症专家政府官员、私人部门领袖和公民社会代表几周前齐聚亚的斯亚贝巴，召开第十届非洲阻止宫颈癌、乳腺癌和前列腺癌会议。


There is more good news: the foundations of an HPV-vaccine initiative have already been laid.	还有更多好消息：HPV疫苗计划的基础已经具备。


In 2013, well before the SDGs were agreed, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, for which I serve as Board Chair, took steps to make the HPV vaccine available and affordable in poor countries.	2013年，在SDG还远未达成一致的时候，由我担任理事会主席的全球疫苗免疫联盟（Gavi）就开始着手努力让穷国能够获得平价HPV疫苗。


Since then, we have seen 23 countries introduce the vaccine through demonstration pilot projects, with five more set to follow.	此后，我们看到23个国家通过试点示范项目引入了该疫苗，还有五国即将跟进。


But there are significant challenges ahead.	但前方挑战依然艰巨。


While the focus on holding vaccination sessions in schools has proved successful, it is inadequate for reaching girls in countries with low school-attendance rates, especially in urban areas.	将重点放在疫苗的校园推广的做法被证明是成功的，但不足以在入学率较低的国家接触足够多的女孩，特别是农村地区。


Unless we find a way to reach the most vulnerable groups, no amount of political will or financing will be enough to achieve the SDGs to protect women and girls.	除非我们找到接触最脆弱群体的办法，否则再多的政治意愿或融资都不足以实现保护妇女和女孩的SDG。


Given that only two Gavi-supported countries, both of which have relatively high enrollment rates, have so far introduced the vaccine nationally, it is not entirely clear how difficult it will be to overcome this challenge.	只有两个获得Gavi支持的国家在全国普及的HPV疫苗，并且这两国家相对来说入学率都比较高，因此，我们并不完全清楚克服这一挑战到底有多困难。


As we move away from demonstration projects toward a more efficient and cost-effective system of phased national scale-ups, we should gain a better sense of what to expect.	围着我们从试点项目转向更高效、性价比更高的阶段性全国推广系统，应该能够更好地了解合理的预期。


We do have some ideas for reaching girls who are not in school – beginning with community health centers.	对于如何接触辍学女孩，我们确实有一些主意——首先从社区卫生中心开始。


As it stands, women are most likely to go to a community health center when they are pregnant, or to have their infants vaccinated.	目前，女性在怀孕或为婴儿接种时最有可能去社区卫生中心。


But by engaging with community leaders and parents to raise awareness of cervical-cancer prevention and address other local health concerns, we are finding that it is possible to generate demand and achieve good turnout at these centers.	但通过与社区领导和家长共同加强宫颈癌预防意识和解决其他地方性卫生问题，我们发现在这些中心引导需求和实现良好的接种率是可能的。


Ensuring that all girls have access to the HPV vaccine would improve countless lives, not only by reducing rates of cervical cancer, but also by enabling the provision of numerous other critical services.	确保所有女孩都能获得HPV疫苗能够改善无数人的生活，这不仅仅是通过降低宫颈癌患病率实现，也通过让其他众多重要服务能够得到提供实现。


It is an opportunity that should be on the minds of cancer experts, government officials, and representatives from the private sector and civil society.	癌症专家、政府官员和私人部门和公民社会代表决不能忽视这个机会。


And it is an imperative for all of the 193 governments that have signed up to the SDGs.	这也是所有193个签署SDG的政府的当务之急。


We must not let our girls down.	我们决不能辜负我们的女孩。


Gene Editing and Seed Stealing	基因编辑和种子窃取